Brad Armendt                    Home      Teaching      Contact Information

Much of my research centers on decision making and the epistemology of rational belief.  Beliefs and inferences about causation have particular significance to both areas, and I am interested in causation and causal inference. 

I am also interested in understanding social phenomena--patterns of behavior, norms, networks, communication systems--as products and conditions of complex interactions among individuals.  

I have an historical interest in the work of the remarkable early 20th-century philosopher, Frank Ramsey.

I am a member of the Center for Biology and Society, and of the Center for Social Dynamics and Complexity at ASU.

Selected Papers

On belief and rational degrees of belief:

  "Pragmatic Interests and Imprecise Belief" Philosophy of Science, 80:758-768, 2013. JSTOR version

  "Stakes and Beliefs" Philosophical Studies 147:71-87, 2010. Published version

  "Stake-Invariant Belief" Acta Analytica 23:29-43, 2008. Published version

   "Dutch books, Additivity, and Utility Theory" Philosophical Topics 21:1-20, 1993.

   "Dutch Strategies for Diachronic Rules" PSA 1992, Vol. 1, Philosophy of Science Association.  JSTOR version

   "Is There a Dutch Book Argument for Probability Kinematics?" Philosophy of Science 47:583-588, 1980. JSTOR version


On decision theory:

   "On Risk and Rationality" Erkenntnis, 79:1119-1127, 2014. JSTOR version

   "Impartiality and Causal Decision Theory" PSA 1988, Vol. 1, 326-336, 1988. JSTOR version

   "Conditional Preference and Causal Expected Utility," in Causation in Decision, Belief Change, and Statistics, Harper & Skyrms, eds., Kluwer, 1988.

   "A Foundation for Causal Decision Theory" Topoi 5:3-19, 1986. Published version


On Ramsey:

   "Frank Ramsey" The Philosophy of Science: An Encyclopedia, Routledge, 2006.

   "Frank Ramsey" A Companion to Analytic Philosophy, Blackwell, 2001.