C15.0041.00 Professor Crocker H. Liu                                                                                                Spring 1998
Investment Principles and Analysis I                                                                                                 9-10 Tisch Hall
UC 64 Mon/Weds 4:00 - 5:20 am                                                               Ofc Hours: Open Door Policy (M-Thu)
(212) 998-0353 Office
(212) 995-4233 FAX
email: cliu@stern.nyu.edu
 
Investment Principles and Analysis I

Texts:

Aswath Damodaran (AD), 1994, Damodaran on Valuation: Security Analysis for Investment and Corporate Finance, John Wiley and Sons.

F. Reilly and K. Brown (RB), 1997, Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management, 5th Edition, Dryden Press.

Class Packets: Available at the NYU Main Bookstore located at 18 Washington Place.

n Lecture Handouts Packet
n Finance Project Packet
n Three Examples of a Student Reports:

Ś Himanshu Patel, Student Analyst, Fall 96 (JP Morgan, Equity Analyst)
Ť Justin Pollack, Student Analyst, Fall 97 (Bear Stearns, Equity Analyst)
Ž Andrea Felicio, Student Analyst, Fall 97 (Periba, Equity Analyst)

Grading Policy:
 
Class Participation/ Turning Assignments in OnTime and of high Quality 
5%
Case Project: Due April 27, 1998 (late projects are not accepted)
50%
Midterm Exam: March 23, 1998
20%
Final Exam:
25%
                
                                                                              
The Case Project is an individual effort with each student responsible for 1 stock.  The case is 150-200 pages in length.  Students use the investment report to showcase their abilities to potential employers at the most pretigious investment banking firms.

Grading is based on the class curve rather than the total number of points and adheres to the grading curve set by the Finance department. The professor has no control over this curve.
 

What is Expected of Students:

Ś Students are expected to ask another student for lecture notes or make other arrangements if he or she is unable to attend class e.g., religious holidays.

Ť No makeup exams are given without a signed medical excuse from a doctor.

Ž Students are required to possess a calculator with financial functions.
 

« « WARNING: This is a labor intensive class. The philosophy that we use is to talk about it, read about it, and then JUST DO IT! No incompletes will be given.


TOPIC SCHEDULE
Week            Dates                                                      Topic                                                      Reading


1-2            1/20-1/31                         Security Market Fundamentals

• The Investment Setting   Ch. 1, RB
• Organization/Functioning of Securities Markets Ch. 4, RB
• Security Market Indicator Series Ch. 5, RB



3               2/02-2/06                           Industry Analysis

• Industry Analysis Ch. 19, RB

                                                             Company Analysis (Ratio Analysis)

• Analysis of Financial Statements Ch. 12, RB
• Understanding Financial Statements Ch. 5, AD



4-6            2/09-2/27                           Absolute Valuation Models

 Prelude to Valuation Analysis

• Introduction to Valuation Ch. 1, AD
• Approaches to Valuation Ch. 2, AD
• Overview and Conclusions Ch. 17, AD
• Stock Market Analysis Ch. 18, RB
• Company Analysis and Stock Selection Ch. 20, RB

Dividend Discount Model

• Estimation of Discount Rates Ch. 3, AD
• Estimation of Cashflows Ch. 4, AD
• Estimation of Growth Rates Ch. 5, AD
• Dividend-Discount Models Ch. 6, AD

Free Cashflow to Equity Model

• Free Cashflow to Equity Discount Models Ch. 7, AD
• Valuing a Firm-The Free Cashflow to Firm Ch. 8, AD

Economic Value Added (EVA)/MVA

No readings



7                3/02-3/06                          Relative Valuation Models

Price-Earnings Ratio

• Price-Earnings Ratio Ch. 10, AD

Variations to the Price-Earnings Approach

• Price-Book Value Ratios Ch. 11, AD
• Price-Sales Ratios Ch. 12, AD

Review for Midterm Exam



9                 3/23                                                  Midterm Exam

Students can bring 2 pages of formulas written on only 1 side of the paper (not front and back)



9                3/23-3/27                          Technical Analysis and Efficient Capital Markets

• Technical Analysis Ch. 21, RB
• Efficient Capital Markets Ch. 7, RB
• Market Efficiency-Definition and Tests Ch. 8, AD
• Market Efficiency-The Evidence Ch. 9, AD



10-11         3/30-4/10                                       Modern Valuation Approaches

• Introduction to Asset Pricing Models Ch. 9, RB
• Extensions and Testing of Asset Pricing Theories Ch. 10, RB
• Jensen’s Alpha (pp. 1000-1005) Ch. 27, RB



12               4/13-4/17                                          Special Cases in Valuation

• Option Contracts Ch. 24, RB
• Option Pricing Theory Ch. 17, AD
• Special Cases in DCF Valuation Ch. 13, AD
• Applications of Option Pricing to Equity Valuation Ch. 18, AD


13               4/20-4/24                          Investment Strategies

• Equity Portfolio Management Strategies Ch. 22, RB



14-15         4/27-5/04                           Portfolio Management

• Asset Allocation Ch. 2, RB
• Introduction to Portfolio Management Ch. 8, RB
• Evaluation of Portfolio Performance Ch. 27, RB
• The Global Asset Allocation Decision Ch. 14, RB


Investment Analysis Project

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to

Ś acquaint you with various investment information
Ť enhance your understanding of various analytical topics covered during the semester
Ž get you a job by showing this project to an employer in a job interview

Due Date: April 27, 1998

Format: The paper must be laser printed. References to outside sources should be footnoted at the end of the paper (this includes any class handouts). In the Appendix to each section, be sure to explain the technique(s) used/description of model, the assumptions and limitations of the model, and also put all intermediate calculations here.

Individual Work: Each student is responsible for 1 stock in a given industry. Each individual in the class will not be allowed to choose a stock that another individual has selected or a stock used in the prior semester.

Outline:
 

I. Executive Summary: Final Stock Recommendation
II. Company Overview and Recent News about Company
III. Industry Analysis and Relationship to Compan

IV. Fundamental Analysis V. Technical Analysis: VI. Modern Valuation: VII. How It All Worked Out: Risk, Riches, and Ruin.
VIII. References/Bibliography
IX. Appendices



 
Note:

1. Your packet at the bookstore contains 3 typical student reports from prior semesters. Each report has certain weaknesses and therefore you should treat these prior reports only as a starting point or point of departure in doing your analysis.

2. Unfortunately, due to administrative decisions to increase the size of this class, there will not be any resubmissions of the project allowed prior to the final submission. This policy may change if the class size is reduced to roughly 35 students.

Staying On Course: You are required to submit your preliminary drafts to me at the end of each time period listed below so that I know you are keeping up. The grade on your preliminary drafts are preliminary.
 

The grade on your final project is final. There will be no incompletes given in this course.

  


PROJECT TIMETABLE
Week              Date                                    Project Work to be Submitted to Teacher


1*                      1/26               Sign-up for a stock and an alternative stock

Submit data packet on stock from Internet (e.g www.wsrn.com), Bloomberg, Lexis-Nexus, Dow Jones News Retrieval, Investext, etc.



2                        2/02               Turn in Student Information Sheets.
                                                 Turn in typewritten Company Overview including recent news.


3                         2/11              Turn in typwritten Industry Analysis and Firm’s Competitive Strategies
                                                  including other risks/special situations that your company faces.

 4                        2/18               Turn in typewritten report on Fundamental Analysis-Ratio Analysis


5                     2/23-2/27          Start studying for Midterm Exam.

 6                        3/04                Turn in typewritten report on Fundamental Analysis Part II.
                                                   Dividend Discount (DDM), Free Cash Flow to Equity (FCFE),
                                                   EVA/MVA Models


7                         3/11                 Turn in typewritten report on Fundamental Analysis Part III.
                                                    Relative Valuation Models


9                         3/23                 Midterm Exam. (Multiple Choice, True-False, & Quantitative Problems)


10                       3/30                 Turn in typewritten report on Technical Analysis.
                                                     Moving Average System & Relative Strength
                                                     Earnings Surprise Models


12                       4/08                  Turn in typewritten report on Modern Valuation Theory & Applications.
                                                      Jensen's Alpha, Up and Down Betas
                                                      Partitioning risk and return with the Market Model


13                       4/27                   Final Project is Due.
 

 
 
Detailed Guidelines in Writing Your Report and Timetable for Project
  Week                                Project Work To Be Completed Potential Data Sources/Software


1* Sign-up/ submit the data packet on your stock(s). Your stock must

(i) be publicly listed
(ii) have prices, dividends(preferably), and positive earnings for all 5 years
(iii) have information on it in either the S&P Stock Reports, Value Line Investment Survey, or Moody's Handbook of Common Stocks.

Your data packet should include the following:

þ Bloomberg: Earnings estimates; historical ratios for company and industry (if any)
þ Dow Jones New Retrieval: Complete printout of information on your company
þ Investext: Analysts writeups on your stock (the 2 "best" reports)
þ Lexis-Nexus: News articles on your company and industry for past 6 months
þ Internet: From www.wsrn.com (among other sites) annual report/ 10K for your company and your company’s major(s) competitors. Also the fact sheet on your company, company/industry ratios, industry reports, etc.
þ Value Line (preferably), Moody’s or S&P fact sheet on your company



2 Company Overview Synopsis: Describe what your company does and its prospects for the future. Discuss what are its major sources of revenue and provide a breakdown of revenue sources by geographic region, major product type, etc. Also discuss current news events about the company and what these events portend in terms of future company performance e.g. future revenues and expenses.


3 Industry Analysis and Management Strategies: Discuss the current state and the future prospects of the industry you have chosen. Also discuss how these industry trends impact on your stock’s current/future performance. Present an analysis ala Michael Porter of the basic competitive forces in your industry and your company’s strategies to deal with these forces. Also perform an analysis of your company’s management team e.g. its skill and competence. Discuss company risks/uncertainties as well as special situations. The point of industry/management analysis is to determine the sustainability of current growth and prospects for future growth of your firm.

 4 Fundamental Analysis - Ratio Analysis: Discuss what your company’s ratios suggest about the health of your firm relative to the industry, relative to the market as proxied by the S&P500, your company’s primary competitors, as well as the firm’s past performance. Your discussion should focus on firm performance with respect to internal liquidity, operating performance, risk analysis, growth analysis, and external liquidity. Link problems which the ratio analysis suggests to balance sheet and income statement items and also major news events. Also, discuss what the implications of your ratio analysis are with respect to future management performance and long term price trends.

Sources: RMA Annual Statement Studies (Robert Morris Associates), Industry Norms and Key Business Ratios (Dun & Bradstreet), Almanac of Business and Industrial Financial Ratios (Troy), and Trade Publications. For certain industries such as banking and insurance, the appropriate ratios will be found in tradebooks such as Shesnouff (banks) which compiles information in the call reports and the Best Reports (Insurance). Also

check the Internet (e.g. www.wsrn.com).


 6 Fundamental Analysis - Dividend Discount, Free Cash Flow to Equity, EVA/MVA Models: Value your company using the constant growth model (or supergrowth model if applicable) in addition to the free cash flow to equity model. Do some simple sensitivity analysis on the growth rate. In addition to this, perform an EVA/MVA analysis on your company and compare your company relative to other Fortune 500 companies in your industry. Address questions at the end of this section in the finance project handbook.

Sources: Bloomberg, Compustat and CRSP on srds, ValueLine, First Call on America Online, Dow Jones News Retrieval, www.wsrn.com



7 Fundamental Analysis - Relative Valuation Models:

Perform a relative valuation analysis using firms that are "comparable" to your subject firm and using variables that are appropriate to your particular industry to adjust the industry P/E to arrive at the justified P/E for your stock and stocks of your comparables. Address questions at the end of this section in the finance project handbook.



10 Technical Analysis: Determine whether your stock is overvalued, undervalued, or correctly priced using the moving average system, the relative strength technique, and the earnings surprise model.

Do some simple sensitivity analysis on the number of days to use in the short term/long term moving averages. Construct a matrix showing the profit from varying the number of days in the short/long term series. Also perform some simple sensitivity analysis on the significance level to use as the appropriate Z score in the earnings surprise model e.g. 90%, 95%, etc. Construct a matrix showing the profit from varying the Z-score (significance level).

Calculate your profit margin if you had relied on each of these alternative systems. In addition to this, calculate profits if you had used a buy and hold strategy. Address the issues in the technical analysis handout.

Sources: Historical Price Quotes and First Call on America OnLine, Bloomberg, CRSP on srds.



12 Modern Valuation: Value the stock using Jensen’s alpha. In addition to this, calculate and analyze the up and down beta for your firm. Partition the risk and return on your stock using the single index model. Address the issues posed at the end of the class handout.

Sources: CRSP on srds, Bloomberg.

Executive Summary: Summarize your analysis and recommendations regarding your stock. The summary should briefly highlight the reasons for your final recommendation. These reasons should be based not only on quantitative considerations but also qualitative factors. Include a discussion of whether your stock "beat" the S&P500.

Your executive summary should be placed at the front of your report.



13 Project is Due (Pau Hana)