Current Projects

Optimal vaccination strategies for pandemic influenza in Mexico

We are building a model for evaluating vaccination strategies in Mexico, tailored to Mexican population age structure, rooted in seasonal influenza data from Mexico and integrating age-specific parameters of vaccine effectiveness, hospitalization risk and death. Because there is important uncertainty regarding the epidemiology of the emerging pandemic influenza virus and vaccine related parameters, we plan to perform extensive uncertainty and sensitivity analyses. The end product would be a flexible piece of software, where input parameters could be easily updated in real time as new data becomes available, and useful to public health officials in designing optimal vaccination strategies against pandemic influenza.

This project is funded by the World Health Organization. Collaborators: Cécile Viboud, Xiaohong Wang, Mark A. Miller.

Geographical patterns in pneumonia and influenza (P&I) mortality in Brazil, 1996-2006: transmissibility and mortality impact

The transmission dynamic of influenza in the tropics is poorly understood. We are using mathematical and statistical methods to estimate the transmissibility of seasonal influenza in Brazil using pneumonia and influenza (P&I) mortality.

Collaborators: Cécile Viboud, A.C. Rodrigues-Neto, Lone Simonsen, Mark Miller, Wladimir Alonso.

Mathematical and statistical estimation methods in Epidemiology

Collaborators: Hiroshi Nishiura, Luis Bettencourt, Mac Hyman, Nick Hengartner

Effects of Rubella vaccination in Peru

We are using mathematical and statistical models together with spatio-temporal data of rubella epidemics in Peru to evaluate the effects of the ongoing vaccination campaigns in Peru.

Collaborators: Daniel Rios-Doria, Karl P. Hadeler, Carlos Castillo-Chavez, Cesar Munayco-Escate.