Strategic Decision Making References


This web page contains references from Strategic Decision Making, arranged by chapter. The bibliographic citation for this book is Craig W. Kirkwood, Strategic Decision Making: Multiobjective Decision Analysis with Spreadsheets, Duxbury Press, Belmont, CA, 1997, ISBN 0-534-51692-0.

Quick Links to References

  1. Making Decisions Strategically
  2. Structuring Objectives
  3. Developing Alternatives
  4. Multiobjective Value Analysis
  5. Thinking About Uncertainty
  6. Decisions with Uncertainty
  7. Multiple Objectives and Uncertainty
  8. Resource Allocation
  9. Multiattribute Preference Theory
  1. Case: Computer Networking Strategy
  2. Scenario Planning for Decision Making
  3. Probability Elicitation Interview
  4. Interdependent Uncertainties

References, by Chapter


  1. Making Decisions Strategically  [Return to quick links]


  2. Structuring Objectives  [Return to quick links]
    M. S. Bennedsen and C. W. Kirkwood, ``Selecting Sites for Coal-fired Power Plants,'' Journal of the Energy Division, Proceedings of the American Society of Civil Engineers, Vol. 198, No. EY2, pp. 69--78 (1982).
  3. D. G. Brooks and C. W. Kirkwood, ``Decision Analysis to Select a Microcomputer Networking Strategy: A Procedure and a Case Study,'' Journal of the Operational Research Society, Vol. 39, pp. 23--32 (1988).

    D. M. Buede, ``Structuring Value Attributes,'' Interfaces, Vol. 16, No. 2, pp. 52--62 (March-April 1986).

    J. L. Corner and C. W. Kirkwood, ``Decision Analysis Applications in the Operations Research Literature, 1970--1989,'' Operations Research,Vol. 39, pp. 206--219 (1991).

    K. Golabi, C. W. Kirkwood, and A. Sicherman, ``Selecting a Portfolio of Solar Energy Projects Using Multiattribute Preference Theory,'' Management Science, Vol. 27, pp. 174--189 (1981).

    D. H. Gustafson, W. L. Cats-Baril, and F. Alemi, Systems to Support Health Policy Analysis: Theory, Models, and Uses, Health Administration Press, Ann Arbor, Michigan, 1992.

    R. L. Keeney, ``Measurement Scales for Quantifying Attributes,'' Behavioral Science, Vol. 26, pp. 29--36 (1981).

    R. L. Keeney, ``Structuring Objectives for Problems of Public Interest,''Operations Research, Vol. 36, pp. 396--405 (1988).

    R. L. Keeney, Value-Focused Thinking: A Path to Creative Decisionmaking,Harvard University Press, Cambridge, Massachusetts, 1992.

    R. L. Keeney and G. L. Lilien, ``New Industrial Product Design and Evaluation Using Multiattribute Value Analysis,'' Journal of Product Innovation Management, Vol. 4, pp. 185--198 (1987).

    R. L. Keeney and H. Raiffa, Decisions with Multiple Objectives: Preferences and Value Tradeoffs, Wiley, New York, 1976.

    C. W. Kirkwood, ``A Case History of Nuclear Power Plant Site Selection,''Journal of the Operational Research Society, Vol. 33, pp. 353--363 (1982). 


  4. Developing Alternatives  [Return to quick links]
    R. T. Clemen, Making Hard Decisions: An Introduction to Decision Analysis, Second Edition, Duxbury Press, Belmont, California, 1996
  5. D. M. Crawford, B. C. Huntzinger, and C. W. Kirkwood, ``Multiobjective Decision Analysis for Transmission Conductor Selection,'' Management Science, Vol. 24, pp. 1700--1709 (1978).

    R. M. Dawes, Rational Choice in an Uncertain World, Harcourt Brace Jovanovich, San Diego, 1988.

    K. Golabi, C. W. Kirkwood, and A. Sicherman, ``Selecting a Portfolio of Solar Energy Projects Using Multiattribute Preference Theory,'' Management Science, Vol. 27, pp. 174--189 (1981).

    R. A. Howard, ``Decision Analysis: Practice and Promise,'' Management Science, Vol. 34, pp. 679--695 (1988).

    R. L. Keeney, Value-Focused Thinking: A Path to Creative Decisionmaking,Harvard University Press, Cambridge, Massachusetts, 1992.

    R. L. Keeney and H. Raiffa, Decisions with Multiple Objectives: Preferences and Value Tradeoffs, Wiley, New York, 1976.

    L. R. Keller and J. L. Ho, ``Decision Problem Structuring: Generating Options,'' IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics, Vol. 18, pp. 715--728 (1988).

    C. W. Kirkwood, ``A Case History of Nuclear Power Plant Site Selection,''Journal of the Operational Research Society, Vol. 33, pp. 353--363 (1982).

    P. McNamee and J. Celona, Decision Analysis with Supertree, Second Edition, The Scientific Press, South San Francisco, California, 1990.

    W. L. Winston, Operations Research: Applications and Algorithms, Third Edition, PWS-Kent, Boston, 1994. 


  6. Multiobjective Value Analysis  [Return to quick links]
    D. G. Brooks and C. W. Kirkwood, ``Decision Analysis to Select a Microcomputer Networking Strategy: A Procedure and a Case Study,'' Journal of the Operational Research Society, Vol. 39, pp. 23--32 (1988).
  7. J. S. Dyer and R. K. Sarin, ``Measurable Multiattribute Value Functions,''Operations Research, Vol. 27, pp. 810--822 (1979).

    W. Edwards, ``How to Use Multiattribute Utility Measurement for Social Decisionmaking,'' IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics,Vol. SMC--7, pp. 326--340 (1977).

    W. Edwards and F. H. Barron, ``SMARTS and SMARTER: Improved Simple Methods for Multiattribute Utility Measurement,'' Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Vol. 60, pp. 306--325 (1994).

    W. Edwards and J. R. Newman, ``Multiattribute Evaluation,'' in H. R. Arkes and K. R. Hammond (eds.), Judgment and Decision Making: An Interdisciplinary Reader, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, England, 1986, pp. 13--37.

    W. Edwards, D. von Winterfeldt, and D. L. Moody, ``Simplicity in Decision Analysis: An Example and a Discussion,'' in D. E. Bell, H. Raiffa, and A. Tversky (eds.), Decision Making: Descriptive, Normative, and Prescriptive Interactions, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, England, 1988, pp. 443--464.

    D. L. Keefer and C. W. Kirkwood, ``A Multiobjective Decision Analysis: Budget Planning for Product Engineering,'' Journal of the Operational Research Society, Vol. 29, pp. 435--442 (1978).

    C. W. Kirkwood and R. K. Sarin, ``Preference Conditions for Multiattribute Value Functions,'' Operations Research, Vol. 28, pp. 225--232 (1980).

    D. von Winterfeldt and W. Edwards, Decision Analysis and Behavioral Research, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, England, 1986. 


  8. Thinking about Uncertainty  [Return to quick links]
    M. Alpert and H. Raiffa, ``A Progress Report on the Training of Probability Assessors,'' In D. Kahneman, P. Slovic, and A. Tversky (Editors),Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, England, 1982.
  9. R. M. Dawes, Rational Choice in an Uncertain World, Harcourt Brace Jovanovich, San Diego, 1988.

    M. W. Merkhofer, ``Quantifying Judgmental Uncertainty: Methodology, Experiences, and Insights,'' IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics, Vol. SMC-17, pp. 741--752, 1987.

    C. S. Spetzler and C.-A. S. Sta\"el von Holstein, ``Probability Encoding in Decision Analysis,'' Management Science, Vol. 22, pp. 340--358, 1975.

    A. Tversky and D. Kahneman, ``Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases,'' Science, Vol. 185, pp. 1124--1131 (1974). 


  10. Decisions with Uncertainty  [Return to quick links]
    R. T. Clemen, Making Hard Decisions: An Introduction to Decision Analysis, Second Edition, Duxbury Press, Belmont, California, 1996
  11. S. Ghahramani, Fundamentals of Probability, Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River, New Jersey, 1996.

    R. A. Howard, ``Decision Analysis: Practice and Promise,'' Management Science, Vol. 34, pp. 679--695 (1988).

    D. L. Keefer and S. E. Bodily, ``Three-Point Approximations for Continuous Random Variables,'' Management Science, Vol. 29, pp. 595--609, 1983.

    R. L. Keeney and H. Raiffa, Decisions with Multiple Objectives: Preferences and Value Tradeoffs, Wiley, New York, 1976.

    C. W. Kirkwood, ``An Overview of Methods for Applied Decision Analysis,''Interfaces, Vol. 22, No. 6, pp. 28--39 (November--December 1992).

    P. McNamee and J. Celona, Decision Analysis with Supertree, Second Edition, The Scientific Press, South San Francisco, California, 1990.

    I. Olkin, L. J. Gleser, and C. Derman, Probability Models and Applications, Macmillan, New York, 1994.

    J. W. Pratt, ``Risk Aversion in the Small and in the Large,'' Econometrica, Vol. 32, pp. 122--136 (1964).

    J. W. Pratt, H. Raiffa, and R. O. Schlaifer, ``The Foundations of Decision Under Uncertainty: An Elementary Exposition,'' Journal of the American Statistical Association, Vol. 59, pp. 353--375 (1964). 


  12. Multiple Objectives and Uncertainty  [Return to quick links]
    ADA Decision Systems, DPL Standard Version User Guide, Duxbury Press, Belmont, CA, 1995.
  13. J. L. Corner and C. W. Kirkwood, ``Decision Analysis Applications in the Operations Research Literature, 1970--1989,'' Operations Research, Vol. 39, pp. 206--219 (1991).

    R. A. Howard, ``Decision Analysis: Practice and Promise,'' Management Science, Vol. 34, pp. 679--695 (1988).

    D. L. Keefer, ``Allocation Planning for R \& D with Uncertainty and Multiple Objectives,'' IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management, Vol. EM-25, pp. 8--14 (1978).

    D. L. Keefer and C. W. Kirkwood, ``A Multiobjective Decision Analysis: Budget Planning for Product Engineering,'' Journal of the Operational Research Society, Vol. 29, pp. 435--442 (1978).

    R. L. Keeney and H. Raiffa, Decisions with Multiple Objectives: Preferences and Value Tradeoffs, Wiley, New York, 1976. 


  14. Resource Allocation  [Return to quick links]
    K. Golabi, C. W. Kirkwood, and A. Sicherman, ``Selecting a Portfolio of Solar Energy Projects Using Multiattribute Preference Theory,'' Management Science, Vol. 27, pp. 174--189 (1981). 
  15. Multiattribute Preference Theory  [Return to quick links]
    J. Acz\'el, Lectures on Functional Equations and Their Applications, Academic Press, New York, 1966.
  16. F. H. Barron, D. von Winterfeldt, and G. W. Fischer, ``Empirical and Theoretical Relationships Between Value and Utility Functions,'' Acta Psychologica, Vol. 56, pp. 233--244 (1984).

    D. E. Bell, ``A Contextual Uncertainty Condition for Behavior under Risk,'' Management Science, Vol. 41, pp. 1145--1150 (1995).

    D. M. Buede, ``Structuring Value Attributes,'' Interfaces, Vol. 16, No. 2, pp. 52--62 (March-April 1986).

    J. L. Corner and C. W. Kirkwood, ``Decision Analysis Applications in the Operations Research Literature, 1970-1989,'' Operations Research, Vol. 39, pp. 206--219 (1991).

    J. S. Dyer, ``Remarks on the Analytic Hierarchy Process,'' Management Science, Vol. 36, pp. 249--258 (1990a).

    J. S. Dyer, ``A Clarification of `Remarks on the Analytic Hierarchy Process,'$\,$'' Management Science, Vol. 36, pp. 274--275 (1990b).

    J. S. Dyer, P. C. Fishburn, R. E. Steuer, J. Wallenius, and S. Zionts, ``Multiple Criteria Decision Making, Multiattribute Utility Theory: The Next Ten Years,'' Management Science, Vol. 38, pp. 645--654 (1992).

    J. S. Dyer and R. K. Sarin, ``Measurable Multiattribute Value Functions,''Operations Research, Vol. 27, pp. 810--822 (1979).

    P. Fishburn and P. Wakker, ``The Invention of the Independence Condition for Preferences,'' Management Science, Vol. 41, pp. 1130--1144 (1995).

    E. H. Forman, ``Facts and Fictions about the Analytic Hierarchy Process,''Mathematical and Computer Modelling, Vol. 17, No. 4/5, pp. 19--26 (1993).

    P. T. Harker and L. G. Vargas, ``Reply to `Remarks on the Analytic Hierarchy Process' by J. S. Dyer,'' Management Science, Vol. 36, pp. 269--273 (1990).

    D. L. Keefer and S. M. Pollock, ``Approximations and Sensitivity in Multiobjective Resource Allocation,'' Operations Research, Vol. 28, pp. 114--128 (1980).

    R. L. Keeney, ``Measurement Scales for Quantifying Attributes,'' Behavioral Science, Vol. 26, pp. 29--36 (1981).

    R. L. Keeney, ``Structuring Objectives for Problems of Public Interest,''Operations Research, Vol. 36, pp. 396--405 (1988).

    R. L. Keeney and H. Raiffa, Decisions with Multiple Objectives: Preferences and Value Tradeoffs, Wiley, New York, 1976.

    L. R. Keller and J. L. Ho, ``Decision Problem Structuring: Generating Options,'' IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics, Vol. 18, pp. 715--728 (1988).

    C. W. Kirkwood and R. K. Sarin, ``Preference Conditions for Multiattribute Value Functions,'' Operations Research, Vol. 28, pp. 225--232 (1980).

    J. W. Pratt, H. Raiffa, and R. O. Schlaifer, ``The Foundations of Decision under Uncertainty: An Elementary Exposition,'' Journal of the American Statistical Association, Vol. 59, pp. 353--375 (1964).

    S. F. Richard, ``Multivariate Risk Aversion, Utility Independence and Separable Utility Functions,'' Management Science, Vol. 22, pp. 12--21 (1975).

    T. L. Saaty, ``Axiomatic Foundation of the Analytic Hierarchy Process,''Management Science, Vol. 32, pp. 841--855 (1986).

    T. L. Saaty, ``An Exposition of the AHP in Reply to the Paper `Remarks on the Analytic Hierarchy Process,'$\,$'' Management Science, Vol. 36, pp. 259--268 (1990).

    T. L. Saaty, ``Highlights and Critical Points in the Theory and Application of the Analytic Hierarchy Process,'' European Journal of Operational Research, Vol. 74, pp. 426--447 (1994a).

    T. L. Saaty, ``How to Make a Decision: The Analytic Hierarchy Process,''Interfaces, Vol. 24, No. 6, pp. 19--43 (November--December 1994b).

    T. L. Saaty, Decision Making for Leaders: The Analytic Hierarchy Process for Decisions in a Complex World, Third Edition, RWS Publications, Pittsburgh, PA, 1995.

    L. G. Vargas, ``An Overview of the Analytic Hierarchy Process and its Applications,'' European Journal of Operational Research, Vol. 48, pp. 2--8 (1990).

    D. von Winterfeldt and W. Edwards, Decision Analysis and Behavioral Research, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, England, 1986.

    R. L. Winkler, ``Decision Modeling and Rational Choice: AHP and Utility Theory,'' Management Science, Vol. 36, pp. 247--248 (1990).

    K. P. Yoon and C. Hwang, Multiple Attribute Decision Making: An Introduction, Sage, Thousand Oaks, CA, 1995.


  1. Case: Computer Networking Strategy  [Return to quick links]

  2. Scenario Planning for Decision Making  [Return to quick links]
    G. Benford, C. W. Kirkwood, H. Otway, M. J. Pasqualetti, ``Ten Thousand Years of Solitude? On Inadvertent Intrusion into the Waste Isolation Pilot Project Repository,'' Report LA-12048-MS, Los Alamos Laboratory, Los Alamos, New Mexico 87545, March 1991.
  3. R. T. Clemen, Making Hard Decisions: An Introduction to Decision Analysis, Second Edition, Duxbury Press, Belmont, California, 1996

    D. M. Crawford, B. C. Huntzinger, and C. W. Kirkwood, ``Multiobjective Decision Analysis for Transmission Conductor Selection,'' Management Science, Vol. 24, pp. 1700--1709 (1978).

    R. M. Dawes, Rational Choice in an Uncertain World, Harcourt Brace Jovanovich, San Diego, 1988.

    R. L. Keeney and H. Raiffa, Decisions with Multiple Objectives: Preferences and Tradeoffs, Wiley, New York, 1976.

    C. W. Kirkwood, ``A Case History of Nuclear Power Plant Site Selection,''Journal of the Operational Research Society, Vol. 33, pp. 353--363 (1982).

    C. W. Kirkwood and L. W. Seidman, ``Avoiding Decision-Making Errors,''Pace, Vol. 12, No. 9, pp. 65--69 (September 1985).

    A. Kleiner, ``Creating Scenarios,'' in P. M. Senge, C. Roberts, R. B. Ross, B. J. Smith, and A. Kleiner, The Fifth Discipline Fieldbook: Strategies and Tools for Building a Learning Organization, Doubleday Currency, New York, 1994.

    J. E. Russo and P. J. H. Schoemaker, Decision Traps: Ten Barriers to Brilliant Decision-Making and How to Overcome Them, Simon and Schuster, New York, 1989.

    R. C. Schank, Tell Me a Story: A New Look at Real and Artificial Memory, Scribner, New York, 1990.

    P. J. H. Schoemaker, ``Scenario Planning: A Tool for Strategic Thinking,''Sloan Management Review, Vol. 36, No. 2, pp. 25--40 (Winter 1995).

    P. Schwartz, The Art of the Long View, Doubleday Currency, New York, 1991.

    P. M. Senge, The Fifth Discipline: The Art and Practice of the Learning Organization, Doubleday Currency, New York, 1990.

    P. Wack, ``Scenarios: Uncharted Waters Ahead,'' Harvard Business Review, September/October 1985a, pp. 73--89.

    P. Wack, ``Scenarios: Shooting the Rapids,'' Harvard Business Review, November/December 1985b, pp. 139--150. 


  4. Probability Elicitation Interview  [Return to quick links]
    A. A. Gilmartin, A. Newell, and H. A. Simon, ``A Program Modeling Short-term Memory under Strategy Control.'' In C. N. Cofer (Editor), The Structure of Human Memory, Freeman, San Francisco, 1976.
  5. A. Newell and H. A. Simon, Human Problem Solving, Prentice Hall, Englewood Cliffs, New Jersey (1972).

    G. G. Shephard, Guided Self-Elicitation of Decision Analyst Expertise, Ph.D. dissertation, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ, 1990.

    G. G. Shephard and C. W. Kirkwood, ``Managing the Judgmental Probability Elicitation Process: A Case Study of Analyst/Manager Interaction,''IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management, Vol. 41, pp. 414--425 (1994). 


  6. Interdependent Uncertainties  [Return to quick links]
    D. Buede, ``Aiding Insight: Decision Analysis Survey,'' OR/MS Today, Vol. 20, No. 2, pp. 52--60 (April 1993).
  7. R. T. Clemen, Making Hard Decisions: An Introduction to Decision Analysis, Second Edition, Duxbury Press, Belmont, California, 1996

    R. M. Dawes, Rational Choice in an Uncertain World, Harcourt Brace Jovanovich, San Diego, 1988.

    C. D. Feinstein, ``Deciding Whether to Test Student Athletes for Drug Use,'' Interfaces, Vol. 20, No. 3, pp. 80--87 (May--June 1990).

    H. J. Hansen, S. P. Caudill, and J. Boone, ``Crisis in Drug Testing: Results of CDC Blind Study,'' Journal of the American Medical Association, Vol. 253, No. 16, pp. 2382--2387 (April 26, 1985).

    C. W. Kirkwood, ``An Algebraic Approach to Formulating and Solving Large Models for Sequential Decisions Under Uncertainty,'' Management Science, Vol. 39, pp. 900--913 (1993).

    P. McNamee and J. Celona, Decision Analysis with Supertree, Second Edition, The Scientific Press, South San Francisco, California, 1990.


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Last updated August 25, 2008.