Strategic Decision Making Table of Contents


This web page contains the table of contents from Strategic Decision Making. The bibliographic citation for this book is Craig W. Kirkwood, Strategic Decision Making: Multiobjective Decision Analysis with Spreadsheets, Duxbury Press, Belmont, CA, 1997, ISBN 0-534-51692-0.
1.Making Decisions Strategically
1.1.The Elements of a Decision
1.2.Thinking Strategically about Decisions
1.3.CASE: Energy Computing International
1.4.Analyzing the Energy Computing International Case
1.5.Review Questions
1.6.Exercises 
2.Structuring Objectives
2.1.Organizing and Presenting Objectives
2.2.Approaches to Structuring Value Hierarchies
2.3.Uses for Value Hierarchies
2.4.Developing Evaluation Measures
2.5.Illustrative Value Structures
2.6.References
2.7.Review Questions
2.8.Exercises 
3.Developing Alternatives
3.1.Why We Have Difficulty Identifying Good Alternatives
3.2.Too Many Alternatives
3.3.Too Few Alternatives
3.4.Developing Alternatives When There Is Uncertainty
3.5.References
3.6.Review Questions
3.7.Exercises 
4.Multiobjective Value Analysis
4.1.An Example: Selecting a Networking Strategy
4.2.The Multiobjective Value Function
4.3.Determining the Single Dimensional Value Functions
4.4.Determining the Weights
4.5.Determining the Overall Values for the Alternatives
4.6.The Meaning of Value Numbers
4.7.Spreadsheet Analysis Methods
4.8.Decisions with Continuous Decision Variables
4.9.References
4.10.Review Questions
4.11.Exercises 
5.Thinking about Uncertainty
5.1.What Is Probability?
5.2.The Importance of Probability
5.3.Heuristics and Biases in Reasoning under Uncertainty
5.4.General Considerations in Eliciting Probabilities
5.5.Encoding for Discrete Uncertain Quantities
5.6.Stage 4 (Encoding) for Continuous Uncertain Quantities
5.7.Stage 5 (Verifying) for Continuous Uncertain Quantities
5.8.Cumulative Distribution
5.9.References
5.10.Review Questions
5.11.Exercises 
6.Decisions with Uncertainty
6.1.Probabilities
6.2.Expected Value
6.3.Expected Value for Continuous Uncertain Quantities
6.4.Two Caveats about Using Expected Value
6.5.Attitude Toward Risk Taking and Expected Utility
6.6.Determining a Utility Function
6.7.Realistic Values for the Risk Tolerance
6.8.Spreadsheet Calculation Examples
6.9.References
6.10.Review Questions
6.11.Exercises 
7.Multiple Objectives and Uncertainty
7.1.Uncertainty with Multiple Evaluation Measures
7.2.Multiattribute Risk Aversion
7.3.The Power-additive Utility Function
7.4.Certainty Equivalent Calculations
7.5.Spreadsheet Calculation Procedures
7.6.Decisions with Interdependent Uncertainties
7.7.Continuous Decision Variables and Uncertainty
7.8.References
7.9.Review Questions
7.10.Exercises 
8.Resource Allocation
8.1.Benefit/Cost Analysis
8.2.Project Selection with Constraints
8.3.Application to Proposal Evaluation
8.4.Decisions with Continuous Decision Variables
8.5.Reference
8.6.Review Question
8.7.Exercises 
9.Multiattribute Preference Theory
9.1.Some Notation
9.2.Preferences under Certainty
9.3.Preferences under Uncertainty
9.4.Other Approaches to Multiobjective Decision Making
9.5.References
9.6.Review Questions
9.7.Exercises
9.8.Supplement: Additive Value Proof (Three Attributes)
9.9.Supplement: Two Fundamental Theorems 
A.Case: Computer Networking Strategy
A.1.The Trouble Begins
A.2.First Meeting with the Management Consultant
A.3.Second Meeting: Value Tree and Evaluation Measures
A.4.Third Meeting: Alternatives
A.5.Fourth Meeting: Evaluation of Alternatives
A.6.Exercises
A.7.Supplement: Evaluation Measure Scales 
B.Scenario Planning for Decision Making
B.1.The Role of Scenario Planning
B.2.Structured Decision Making
B.3.Developing Scenarios
B.4.Common Scenario Plots
B.5.The Royal Dutch/Shell Experience
B.6.Planning for the Next Ten Thousand Years
B.7.Using Scenarios for Assessment of Alternatives
B.8.Using Scenarios for Design of Alternatives
B.9.Scenario Planning as a Philosophy for Decision Making
B.10.References
B.11.Exercise 
C.Probability Elicitation Interview
C.1.Judgmental Probability Elicitation Protocol
C.2.Data Collection Procedure
C.3.Elicitation Session
C.4.Concluding Comments
C.5.References 
D.Interdependent Uncertainties
D.1.Conditional Probabilities
D.2.Calculating Expected Values on Probability Trees
D.3.Decision Trees
D.4.Influence Diagrams
D.5.Drug Testing: ``Backwards'' Probabilities
D.6.Concluding Comments
D.7.References
D.8.Review Questions
D.9.Exercises

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Last updated August 25, 2008.