| 1. | Making Decisions Strategically | |
| 1.1. | The Elements of a Decision | |
| 1.2. | Thinking Strategically about Decisions | |
| 1.3. | CASE: Energy Computing International | |
| 1.4. | Analyzing the Energy Computing International Case | |
| 1.5. | Review Questions | |
| 1.6. | Exercises | |
| 2. | Structuring Objectives | |
| 2.1. | Organizing and Presenting Objectives | |
| 2.2. | Approaches to Structuring Value Hierarchies | |
| 2.3. | Uses for Value Hierarchies | |
| 2.4. | Developing Evaluation Measures | |
| 2.5. | Illustrative Value Structures | |
| 2.6. | References | |
| 2.7. | Review Questions | |
| 2.8. | Exercises | |
| 3. | Developing Alternatives | |
| 3.1. | Why We Have Difficulty Identifying Good Alternatives | |
| 3.2. | Too Many Alternatives | |
| 3.3. | Too Few Alternatives | |
| 3.4. | Developing Alternatives When There Is Uncertainty | |
| 3.5. | References | |
| 3.6. | Review Questions | |
| 3.7. | Exercises | |
| 4. | Multiobjective Value Analysis | |
| 4.1. | An Example: Selecting a Networking Strategy | |
| 4.2. | The Multiobjective Value Function | |
| 4.3. | Determining the Single Dimensional Value Functions | |
| 4.4. | Determining the Weights | |
| 4.5. | Determining the Overall Values for the Alternatives | |
| 4.6. | The Meaning of Value Numbers | |
| 4.7. | Spreadsheet Analysis Methods | |
| 4.8. | Decisions with Continuous Decision Variables | |
| 4.9. | References | |
| 4.10. | Review Questions | |
| 4.11. | Exercises | |
| 5. | Thinking about Uncertainty | |
| 5.1. | What Is Probability? | |
| 5.2. | The Importance of Probability | |
| 5.3. | Heuristics and Biases in Reasoning under Uncertainty | |
| 5.4. | General Considerations in Eliciting Probabilities | |
| 5.5. | Encoding for Discrete Uncertain Quantities | |
| 5.6. | Stage 4 (Encoding) for Continuous Uncertain Quantities | |
| 5.7. | Stage 5 (Verifying) for Continuous Uncertain Quantities | |
| 5.8. | Cumulative Distribution | |
| 5.9. | References | |
| 5.10. | Review Questions | |
| 5.11. | Exercises | |
| 6. | Decisions with Uncertainty | |
| 6.1. | Probabilities | |
| 6.2. | Expected Value | |
| 6.3. | Expected Value for Continuous Uncertain Quantities | |
| 6.4. | Two Caveats about Using Expected Value | |
| 6.5. | Attitude Toward Risk Taking and Expected Utility | |
| 6.6. | Determining a Utility Function | |
| 6.7. | Realistic Values for the Risk Tolerance | |
| 6.8. | Spreadsheet Calculation Examples | |
| 6.9. | References | |
| 6.10. | Review Questions | |
| 6.11. | Exercises | |
| 7. | Multiple Objectives and Uncertainty | |
| 7.1. | Uncertainty with Multiple Evaluation Measures | |
| 7.2. | Multiattribute Risk Aversion | |
| 7.3. | The Power-additive Utility Function | |
| 7.4. | Certainty Equivalent Calculations | |
| 7.5. | Spreadsheet Calculation Procedures | |
| 7.6. | Decisions with Interdependent Uncertainties | |
| 7.7. | Continuous Decision Variables and Uncertainty | |
| 7.8. | References | |
| 7.9. | Review Questions | |
| 7.10. | Exercises | |
| 8. | Resource Allocation | |
| 8.1. | Benefit/Cost Analysis | |
| 8.2. | Project Selection with Constraints | |
| 8.3. | Application to Proposal Evaluation | |
| 8.4. | Decisions with Continuous Decision Variables | |
| 8.5. | Reference | |
| 8.6. | Review Question | |
| 8.7. | Exercises | |
| 9. | Multiattribute Preference Theory | |
| 9.1. | Some Notation | |
| 9.2. | Preferences under Certainty | |
| 9.3. | Preferences under Uncertainty | |
| 9.4. | Other Approaches to Multiobjective Decision Making | |
| 9.5. | References | |
| 9.6. | Review Questions | |
| 9.7. | Exercises | |
| 9.8. | Supplement: Additive Value Proof (Three Attributes) | |
| 9.9. | Supplement: Two Fundamental Theorems | |
| A. | Case: Computer Networking Strategy | |
| A.1. | The Trouble Begins | |
| A.2. | First Meeting with the Management Consultant | |
| A.3. | Second Meeting: Value Tree and Evaluation Measures | |
| A.4. | Third Meeting: Alternatives | |
| A.5. | Fourth Meeting: Evaluation of Alternatives | |
| A.6. | Exercises | |
| A.7. | Supplement: Evaluation Measure Scales | |
| B. | Scenario Planning for Decision Making | |
| B.1. | The Role of Scenario Planning | |
| B.2. | Structured Decision Making | |
| B.3. | Developing Scenarios | |
| B.4. | Common Scenario Plots | |
| B.5. | The Royal Dutch/Shell Experience | |
| B.6. | Planning for the Next Ten Thousand Years | |
| B.7. | Using Scenarios for Assessment of Alternatives | |
| B.8. | Using Scenarios for Design of Alternatives | |
| B.9. | Scenario Planning as a Philosophy for Decision Making | |
| B.10. | References | |
| B.11. | Exercise | |
| C. | Probability Elicitation Interview | |
| C.1. | Judgmental Probability Elicitation Protocol | |
| C.2. | Data Collection Procedure | |
| C.3. | Elicitation Session | |
| C.4. | Concluding Comments | |
| C.5. | References | |
| D. | Interdependent Uncertainties | |
| D.1. | Conditional Probabilities | |
| D.2. | Calculating Expected Values on Probability Trees | |
| D.3. | Decision Trees | |
| D.4. | Influence Diagrams | |
| D.5. | Drug Testing: ``Backwards'' Probabilities | |
| D.6. | Concluding Comments | |
| D.7. | References | |
| D.8. | Review Questions | |
| D.9. | Exercises | |
Return to ASU decision analysis resources page.Last updated August 1, 2001.