This web page contains the table of contents from

1. | Making Decisions Strategically | |

1.1. | The Elements of a Decision | |

1.2. | Thinking Strategically about Decisions | |

1.3. | CASE: Energy Computing International | |

1.4. | Analyzing the Energy Computing International Case | |

1.5. | Review Questions | |

1.6. | Exercises | |

2. | Structuring Objectives | |

2.1. | Organizing and Presenting Objectives | |

2.2. | Approaches to Structuring Value Hierarchies | |

2.3. | Uses for Value Hierarchies | |

2.4. | Developing Evaluation Measures | |

2.5. | Illustrative Value Structures | |

2.6. | References | |

2.7. | Review Questions | |

2.8. | Exercises | |

3. | Developing Alternatives | |

3.1. | Why We Have Difficulty Identifying Good Alternatives | |

3.2. | Too Many Alternatives | |

3.3. | Too Few Alternatives | |

3.4. | Developing Alternatives When There Is Uncertainty | |

3.5. | References | |

3.6. | Review Questions | |

3.7. | Exercises | |

4. | Multiobjective Value Analysis | |

4.1. | An Example: Selecting a Networking Strategy | |

4.2. | The Multiobjective Value Function | |

4.3. | Determining the Single Dimensional Value Functions | |

4.4. | Determining the Weights | |

4.5. | Determining the Overall Values for the Alternatives | |

4.6. | The Meaning of Value Numbers | |

4.7. | Spreadsheet Analysis Methods | |

4.8. | Decisions with Continuous Decision Variables | |

4.9. | References | |

4.10. | Review Questions | |

4.11. | Exercises | |

5. | Thinking about Uncertainty | |

5.1. | What Is Probability? | |

5.2. | The Importance of Probability | |

5.3. | Heuristics and Biases in Reasoning under Uncertainty | |

5.4. | General Considerations in Eliciting Probabilities | |

5.5. | Encoding for Discrete Uncertain Quantities | |

5.6. | Stage 4 (Encoding) for Continuous Uncertain Quantities | |

5.7. | Stage 5 (Verifying) for Continuous Uncertain Quantities | |

5.8. | Cumulative Distribution | |

5.9. | References | |

5.10. | Review Questions | |

5.11. | Exercises | |

6. | Decisions with Uncertainty | |

6.1. | Probabilities | |

6.2. | Expected Value | |

6.3. | Expected Value for Continuous Uncertain Quantities | |

6.4. | Two Caveats about Using Expected Value | |

6.5. | Attitude Toward Risk Taking and Expected Utility | |

6.6. | Determining a Utility Function | |

6.7. | Realistic Values for the Risk Tolerance | |

6.8. | Spreadsheet Calculation Examples | |

6.9. | References | |

6.10. | Review Questions | |

6.11. | Exercises | |

7. | Multiple Objectives and Uncertainty | |

7.1. | Uncertainty with Multiple Evaluation Measures | |

7.2. | Multiattribute Risk Aversion | |

7.3. | The Power-additive Utility Function | |

7.4. | Certainty Equivalent Calculations | |

7.5. | Spreadsheet Calculation Procedures | |

7.6. | Decisions with Interdependent Uncertainties | |

7.7. | Continuous Decision Variables and Uncertainty | |

7.8. | References | |

7.9. | Review Questions | |

7.10. | Exercises | |

8. | Resource Allocation | |

8.1. | Benefit/Cost Analysis | |

8.2. | Project Selection with Constraints | |

8.3. | Application to Proposal Evaluation | |

8.4. | Decisions with Continuous Decision Variables | |

8.5. | Reference | |

8.6. | Review Question | |

8.7. | Exercises | |

9. | Multiattribute Preference Theory | |

9.1. | Some Notation | |

9.2. | Preferences under Certainty | |

9.3. | Preferences under Uncertainty | |

9.4. | Other Approaches to Multiobjective Decision Making | |

9.5. | References | |

9.6. | Review Questions | |

9.7. | Exercises | |

9.8. | Supplement: Additive Value Proof (Three Attributes) | |

9.9. | Supplement: Two Fundamental Theorems | |

A. | Case: Computer Networking Strategy | |

A.1. | The Trouble Begins | |

A.2. | First Meeting with the Management Consultant | |

A.3. | Second Meeting: Value Tree and Evaluation Measures | |

A.4. | Third Meeting: Alternatives | |

A.5. | Fourth Meeting: Evaluation of Alternatives | |

A.6. | Exercises | |

A.7. | Supplement: Evaluation Measure Scales | |

B. | Scenario Planning for Decision Making | |

B.1. | The Role of Scenario Planning | |

B.2. | Structured Decision Making | |

B.3. | Developing Scenarios | |

B.4. | Common Scenario Plots | |

B.5. | The Royal Dutch/Shell Experience | |

B.6. | Planning for the Next Ten Thousand Years | |

B.7. | Using Scenarios for Assessment of Alternatives | |

B.8. | Using Scenarios for Design of Alternatives | |

B.9. | Scenario Planning as a Philosophy for Decision Making | |

B.10. | References | |

B.11. | Exercise | |

C. | Probability Elicitation Interview | |

C.1. | Judgmental Probability Elicitation Protocol | |

C.2. | Data Collection Procedure | |

C.3. | Elicitation Session | |

C.4. | Concluding Comments | |

C.5. | References | |

D. | Interdependent Uncertainties | |

D.1. | Conditional Probabilities | |

D.2. | Calculating Expected Values on Probability Trees | |

D.3. | Decision Trees | |

D.4. | Influence Diagrams | |

D.5. | Drug Testing: ``Backwards'' Probabilities | |

D.6. | Concluding Comments | |

D.7. | References | |

D.8. | Review Questions | |

D.9. | Exercises |

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*Last updated August 25, 2008.*