QBA 502

MANAGERIAL DECISION ANALYSIS

Trimester I, 1999

INSTRUCTOR:

Craig W. Kirkwood

 

BA 397F, 480-965-6354

 

craig.kirkwood@asu.edu

 

http://www. cob.asu.edu/courses/qba502dt

 

This course studies quantitative approaches for analyzing managerial decisions. You will learn specific methods for structuring and analyzing decisions that will be useful in your current position, and that will continue to be useful as you move to positions of greater responsibility. As you learn these methods, you will sharpen your spreadsheet skills using Microsoft Excel.

GRADING

Homework

35%

Exam

25%

Project

40%

COURSE POLICIES AND SUGGESTIONS

  1. Assignments can be done individually or in groups of up to the specified size. The same group does not have to be used for each assignment. All participants on an assignment receive the same grade.
  2. Explain your work. Partial credit cannot be given for incorrect answers if you do not explain your answer sufficiently so that your error can be identified. Text boxes are a good way to explain your reasoning in Excel.
  3. The course material is cumulative, and therefore it is important to keep up. To receive full credit for a late homework assignment, you must have a written agreement with me prior to the due date regarding when the assignment will be submitted. (This can be done at a prior class or by email.)
  4. Length, by itself, is not a virtue. Some people hand in assignments with many pages of Excel equations in large type. Reducing font size and using narrow margins helps avoid this.
  5. Email is a good way to reach me with questions.

PRIMARY READINGS

  1. R. T. Clemen, Making Hard Decisions: An Introduction to Decision Analysis, 2nd Edition, Duxbury Press, Belmont, CA, 1996.
  2. C. W. Kirkwood, Notes on Decision Analysis, 1999.

TENTATIVE COURSE SCHEDULE AND READINGS

DATE

  
Main
Campus

Downtown

TOPICS

READINGS
(complete prior to class)

8/25

8/26

Structuring Decisions I (alternatives, consequences, objectives, and uncertainties).

Clemen: Chs. 1, 2, 3 (read Ch. 3 only through page 44)

9/1

9/2

Structuring Decisions II (objectives hierarchies, influence diagrams, and decision trees).

Decision analysis software.

Clemen: Ch. 3 (only pp. 49-77), Ch. 4 (only pp. 101-109)

Kirkwood: Secs. 1.1-1.2, Chs 2-3

9/8*

9/9*

Multiobjective value analysis.

Sensitivity analysis.

Clemen: Ch. 3 (only pp. 77-82), Ch. 4 (only pp. 127-134), Ch. 5 (only 155-164, 165-169)

9/15*

9/16*

Probability analysis.

Project proposal presentations.

Clemen: Ch. 7 (skip optional sections)

Kirkwood: Ch. 4

9/22

9/23

Subjective probability.

Clemen: Ch. 8 (Skim for general meaning, and skip optional sections)

Kirkwood: Secs. 1.3-1.8

9/29*

9/30*

Modeling risk attitude.

Clemen: Ch. 13 (skim pp. 461-482 for general meaning, and skip the rest of the chapter)

Kirkwood: Ch. 5

10/6

10/7

Exam.

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10/13

10/14

Theoretical probability distributions.

Interim project presentations.

Clemen: Ch. 9 (Focus on pp. 325-331, and skim the rest of the chapter for general meaning)

10/20*

10/21*

Data analysis, including regression.

Clemen: Ch. 10 (only pp. 355-387)

10/27

10/28

Final project presentations.

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* = Homework assignment due at this class