QBA 502: MANAGERIAL DECISION ANALYSIS

ASU High Technology MBA (Dr. Keefer)

Fall 2002, Trimester I, 6-10 PM Thursday, Research Park

INSTRUCTOR:	Donald L. Keefer Telephone: FAX (SCM Dept.): E-mail: Office hours: Course web page:	BA 409 965‑5501 965-8629 don.keefer@asu.edu Before and after class, or by appointment http://my.asu.edu (use your ASURITE ID and Password)
ASSISTANT	Frank Wang Telephone: E-mail:	965-6044 (SCM Dept., messages only) (480) 921-3511 (home) Frank.Wang@asu.edu
OBJECTIVES:	This course helps you improve the quality of the choices you make in managerial and personal decisions involving major uncertainties. It provides practical techniques to help structure decision problems and analyze them quantitatively. Whether used formally or informally, these techniques help you think clearly about objectives, alternatives, consequences, and uncertainties, and enable you to integrate judgments with other types of information in a logical and defensible manner.
TEXTBOOK:	Making Hard Decisions: An Introduction to Decision Analysis, Ed. 2, Robert Clemen, Duxbury Press, Belmont, CA, 1996.
SOFTWARE:	DPL 4.0: Professional Decision Analysis Software — Academic Edition, Duxbury Press, Belmont, CA, 1998.
PREREQUISITES:	MAT 210, computer literacy, and graduate degree program.
GRADING:	Homework Midterm Exam Case/Project Final Exam	15% 25% 25% 35%
EXAM DATES:	Midterm: Final Exam:	September 26 October 31

Exams will be closed book with one 8½"-x-11" sheet of notes permitted. Absolutely no collaboration is permitted on exams. The case/project will be assigned in class and done in small groups, with each student in a group receiving the same grade. Collaboration across groups is not permitted. Homework will also be assigned in class (usually each week) and checked/graded. Homework assignments are to be handed in individually by all students or in groups as specified in class; either way, collaboration with other current QBA 502 class members is permitted on homework. Consulting with people other than current students or use of materials from previous offerings of the course is not permitted for any homework assignment, case/project, or exam. Each student’s lowest homework grade will be dropped before determining the final homework grade, but we strongly recommend completion of all homework assignments. All assignments must be neat and readable. Late assignments will receive no credit unless prior permissionhas been obtained from Dr. Keefer based on special circumstances.

QBA 502: MANAGERIAL DECISION ANALYSIS

ASU High Technology MBA (Dr. Keefer)

Fall 2002, Trimester I, Preliminary Course Schedule^*

DATE	TOPICS	TEXT^†
Week 1 8/29	Introduction; decision problems; net present value; structuring simple problems via influence diagrams (ID’s) and decision trees (DT’s).	Ch. 1, 2, 3
Week 2 9/5	Structuring and solving more complex problems via DT’s; basic probability concepts, random variables, and probability distributions.	Ch. 3, 4, 7
Week 3 9/12	Mean and variance; joint, marginal, and conditional probabilities; dominance; simple example using DPL.	Ch. 7
Week 4 9/19	Additional probability applications; structuring more complex problems via ID’s; DPL ID’s and DT’s.	Ch. 4, 7
Week 5 9/26	DPL overview and examples; midterm exam.	——
Week 6 10/3	Case handed out; discussion of exam; DPL demonstration; risk preferences; using utility functions.	Ch. 13
Week 7 10/10	Discussion of case assignment; assessing utility functions; sensitivity analysis in problem structuring; follow-up DPL demonstration.	Ch. 13, 5
Week 8 10/17	Judgmental probability assessment; approximating continuous distributions in ID’s and DT’s.	Ch. 8
Week 9 10/24	Case due; integrative examples; creativity and decision making; review.	Ch. 8, 6
Week 10 10/31	Discussion of case; final exam.	——

^*Assignments, their due dates, and schedule changes announced in class.

^†Specific reading assignments announced in class; not all material in chapters listed will be covered.