FN ISI Export Format VR 1.0 MT MC ER PT J AU Ramos-Mane, C TI Vulnerability and adaptation to climate change in Latin America - Foreword SO CLIMATE RESEARCH LA English DT Editorial Material C1 Comis Nacl Cambio Global, Montevideo 11100, Uruguay. RP Ramos-Mane, C, Comis Nacl Cambio Global, Ciudadela 1414,Piso 6, Montevideo 11100, Uruguay. NR 0 TC 0 J9 CLIMATE RES BP U6 EP U6 PY 1997 PD DEC 29 VL 9 IS 1-2 GA ZD200 UT ISI:000072661400001 ER PT J AU King, D TI Climate change: the science and the policy SO JOURNAL OF APPLIED ECOLOGY LA English DT Editorial Material C1 Off Sci & Technol, London SW1 0ET, England. RP King, D, Off Sci & Technol, 1 Victoria St, London SW1 0ET, England. AB Globally we face serious challenges from the effects of climate change. The causal link between global warming and increased greenhouse gas emissions is well established. Carbon dioxide levels are at a higher level than at any time in the past 750 000 years at least, and it is too late to stop further warming and consequent impacts on UK and global societies. Here I summarize the latest scientific evidence for anthropogenic global warming and outline strategies for adapting to its impacts and mitigating the effects in the longer term. 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A response to Epstein and McCarthy SO BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY LA English DT Editorial Material C1 Univ Colorado, CIRES, Boulder, CO 80309 USA. OECD, Environm Directorate, Paris, France. Vrije Univ Amsterdam, Inst Environm Studies, Fac Earth & Life Sci, NL-1081 HV Amsterdam, Netherlands. Univ Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada. Univ Illinois, Champaign, IL 61820 USA. NCAR, Environm & Societal Impacts Grp, Boulder, CO USA. Atmospher Policy Program, AMS, Washington, DC USA. Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res, Potsdam, Germany. Illinois State Water Survey, Ctr Atmospher Sci, Champaign, IL 61820 USA. Univ Colorado, Dept Sociol, Boulder, CO 80309 USA. Arizona State Univ, Tempe, AZ USA. Univ E Anglia, Sch Environm Sci, Tyndall Ctr Climate Change Res, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. Zeppelin Univ, Friedrichshafen, Germany. GKSS Forschungszentrum Geesthacht GmbH, Inst Coastal Res, Geesthacht, Germany. RP Pielke, RA, Univ Colorado, CIRES, Boulder, CO 80309 USA. CR *HARV MED SCH, 2004, EXP WARN GLOB WARM L *INT FED RED CROSS, 2004, WORLD DIS REP 2004 ADGER WN, 2003, PROGR DEV STUDIES, V3, P179 ALLEY RB, 2003, SCIENCE, V299, P2005 CHANGNON SA, 1997, B AM METEOROL SOC, V78, P425 CHANGNON SA, 2000, B AM METEOROL SOC, V81, P437 CHANGNON SD, 2003, B AM METEOROL SOC, V84, P1231 EASTERLING DR, 2000, SCIENCE, V289, P2068 EPSTEIN PR, 2004, B AM METEOROL SOC, V85, P1863 GLANTZ MH, 2003, CLIMATE AFFAIRS PRIM HOUGHTON JT, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 KUNKEL KE, 1999, B AM METEOROL SOC, V80, P1077 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 MILETI DS, 1999, DISASTERS DESIGN PIELKE RA, 1998, WEATHER FORECAST 2, V13, P621 PIELKE RA, 2000, J CLIMATE, V13, P3625 RAGHAVAN S, 2003, B AM METEOROL SOC, V84, P635 SAREWITZ D, 2005, NEW REPUBLIC 0106 SMIT B, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P223 TIERNEY K, 2001, FACING UNEXPECTED DI VONSTORCH H, 2005, SPIEGEL 0124 NR 21 TC 2 J9 BULL AMER METEOROL SOC BP 1481 EP 1483 PY 2005 PD OCT VL 86 IS 10 GA 977GD UT ISI:000232790200024 ER PT J AU Wright, EL Erickson, JD TI Incorporating catastrophes into integrated assessment: Science, impacts, and adaptation SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Review C1 US EPA, Natl Risk Management Res Lab, Res Triangle Pk, NC 27711 USA. Univ Vermont, Sch Nat Resources, Aiken Ctr 344, Burlington, VT 05405 USA. RP Wright, EL, US EPA, Natl Risk Management Res Lab, Mail Drop E-305-02, Res Triangle Pk, NC 27711 USA. AB Incorporating potential catastrophic consequences into integrated assessment models of climate change has been a top priority of policymakers and modelers alike. We review the current state of scientific understanding regarding three frequently mentioned geophysical catastrophes, with a view toward their implications for integrated assessment modeling. This review finds inadequacies in widespread model assumptions regarding the nature of catastrophes themselves and climate change impacts more generally. The possibility of greatly postponed consequences from near- and medium-term actions suggests that standard discounting practices are inappropriate for the analysis of climate catastrophe. Careful consideration of paleoclimate and geophysical modeling evidence regarding the possibility of changes in ocean circulation suggests a reframing of the source of climate change damages in economic models, placing changes in climate predictability, rather than gradual changes in mean values, at the focus of economic damage assessments. The implications of decreases in predictability for the modeling of adaptation are further discussed. 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Univ Alaska, Inst Arctic Biol, Fairbanks, AK 99775 USA. Univ Alaska, Agr & Forestry Expt Stn, Fairbanks, AK 99775 USA. RP Grunzweig, JM, Weizmann Inst Sci, Dept Environm Sci & Energy Res, IL-76100 Rehovot, Israel. AB Climate warming is most pronounced at high latitudes, which could result in the intensification of the extensively cultivated areas in the boreal zone and could further enhance rates of forest clearing in the coming decades. Using paired forest-field sampling and a chronosequence approach, we investigated the effect of conversion of boreal forest to agriculture on carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) dynamics in interior Alaska. Chronosequences showed large soil C losses during the first two decades following deforestation, with mean C stocks in agricultural soils being 44% or 8.3 kg m(-2) lower than C stocks in original forest soils. This suggests that soil C losses from land-use change in the boreal region may be greater than those in other biomes. Analyses of changes in stable C isotopes and in quality of soil organic matter showed that organic C was lost from soils by combustion of cleared forest material, decomposition of organic matter and possibly erosion. Chronosequences indicated an increase in C storage during later decades after forest clearing, with 60-year-old grassland showing net ecosystem C gain of 2.1 kg m(-2) over the original forest. This increase in C stock resulted probably from a combination of large C inputs from belowground biomass and low C losses due to a small original forest soil C stock and low tillage frequency. Reductions in soil N stocks caused by land-use change were smaller than reductions in C stocks (34% or 0.31 kg m(-2)), resulting in lower C/N ratios in field compared with forest mineral soils, despite the occasional incorporation of high-C forest-floor material into field soils. Carbon mineralization per unit of mineralized N was considerably higher in forests than in fields, which could indicate that decomposition rates are more sensitive in forest soils than in field soils to inorganic N addition (e.g. by increased N deposition from the atmosphere). If forest conversion to agriculture becomes more widespread in the boreal region, the resulting C losses (51% or 11.2 kg m(-2) at the ecosystem level in this study) will induce a positive feedback to climatic warming and additional land-use change. However, by selecting relatively C-poor soils and by implementing management practices that preserve C, losses of C from soils can be reduced. 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RP Pyke, CR, Natl Ctr Ecol Anal & Synth, 735 State St,Suite 300, Santa Barbara, CA 93101 USA. AB Land use and land cover interact with atmospheric conditions to determine current climate conditions, as well, as the impact of climate change and environmental variability on ecological systems. Such interactions are ubiquitous, yet changes in LULC are generally made without regard to their biophysical implications. This review considers the potential for LULC to compound, confound, or even contradict changes expected from climate change alone. These properties give LULC the potential to be used as powerful tools capable of modifying local climate and contributing significantly to the net impact of climate change. Management practices based modifications of LULC patterns and processes could be applied strategically to increase the resilience of vulnerable ecological systems and facilitate climate adaptation. These interventions build on the traditional competencies of land management and land protection organizations and suggest that these institutions have a central role in determining the ecological impact of climate change and the development of strategies for adaptation. The practical limits to the use of LULC-based tools also suggest important inflection points between manageable and dangerous levels of climate change. 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RP Naess, LO, CICERO, POB 1129 Blindern, NO-0318 Oslo, Norway. AB The article examines the role institutions play in climate adaptation in Norway. Using examples from two municipalities in the context of institutional responses to floods, we find, first, that the institutional framework for flood management in Norway gives weak incentives for proactive local flood management. Second, when strong local political and economic interests coincide with national level willingness to pay and provide support, measures are often carried out rapidly at the expense of weaker environmental interests. Third, we find that new perspectives on flood management are more apparent at the national than the municipal level, as new perspectives are filtered by local power structures. The findings have important implications for vulnerability and adaptation to climate change in terms of policy options and the local level as the optimal level for adaptation. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *DSB, 2003, HVA LAERT VI FLOMM 1 *GOV NORW, 1995, 37 GOV NORW *GOV NORW, 1996, 42 GOV NORW *HEINZ CTR, 2002, HUM LINKS COAST DIS *MIN ENV MIN LOC G, 1997, T597 MIN ENV MIN LOC *NIVA, 1996, FLOMM OSTL VAR 1995 *NOU, 1996, TILT MOT FLOM *NVE, 1999, RETN AR SIKR FLOM OM AALL C, 2003, 32003 W NORW RES I ADGER WN, 2000, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V90, P738 ADGER WN, 2000, PROG HUM GEOG, V24, P347 BACHRACH P, 1962, AM POLIT SCI REV, V56, P947 BAKKER K, 1999, 3 SIRCH U OXF ENV CH BERKES F, 1998, LINKING SOCIAL ECOLO, V1, P1 BERKES F, 2002, DRAMA COMMONS BJORNAES T, 2001, LOKALE MILJO BAEREKR BLAIKIE PM, 1994, RISK NATURAL HAZARDS, V1, P1 BRAENNE J, 1995, BEFARING RADGIVNING BROWN JD, 2002, T I BRIT GEOGR, V27, P412 BURTON I, 2002, CLIM POLICY, V2, P145 CASH DW, 2000, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V10, P109 CUTTER SL, 1993, LIVING RISK CUTTER SL, 2003, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V93, P1 DAHL RA, 1961, WHO GOVERNS DEMOCRAC EIKENAES O, 2000, FLOMMEN KOMMER EIKENAES O, 2000, LEVE MED FLAUM FLAA P, 1985, INNFORING ORGANISASJ GLANTZ M, 1989, FORECASTING ANALOGY HINDAR K, 1996, EFFEKTER FLOMMEN 199 LISO KR, 2003, BUILD RES INF, V31, P200 LIVERMAN DM, 2002, CLIMATE RES, V21, P199 LUKES S, 1974, POWER RADICAL VIEW LUNDQUIST D, 1996, FLOMMEN 1995 GLOMM L MILLER KA, 1997, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V35, P157 MORROW BH, 1999, DISASTERS, V24, P1 NAESS LO, IN PRESS I ADAPTATIO NYE JS, 1987, INT ORGAN, V41, P371 OBRIEN KL, 2004, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V64, P193 OLSSON P, 2001, ECOSYSTEMS, V4, P85 OYGARDEN L, 1996, FLOMMEN 1995 SKADER QUARANTELLI EL, 1987, INT J MASS EMERGENCI, V5, P7 RATTSO J, 2003, FISCAL DECENTRALIZAT SKURDAL J, 2000, GLOMMA LAAGEN RIVER SMIT B, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, CH18 TOL RSJ, 2003, RISK ANAL, V23, P575 UNDERDAL A, 1998, EUR J INT RELAT, V4, P5 VAYDA AP, 1999, HUM ECOL, V27, P167 WILBANKS TJ, 1999, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V43, P601 WILBANKS TJ, 2002, INTEGRATED ASSESSMEN, V3, P100 YIN R, 1994, CASE STUDY RES DESIG YOHE GW, 2002, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V12, P25 YOUNG O, 1998, 9 IHDP NR 52 TC 6 J9 GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANGE BP 125 EP 138 PY 2005 PD JUL VL 15 IS 2 GA 931VR UT ISI:000229514100006 ER PT J AU Wilderer, PA TI Applying sustainable water management concepts in rural and urban areas: some thoughts about reasons, means and needs SO WATER SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY LA English DT Article C1 Tech Univ Munich, Inst Water Qual Control & Waste Management, D-85758 Garching, Germany. RP Wilderer, PA, Tech Univ Munich, Inst Water Qual Control & Waste Management, Coulombwall, D-85758 Garching, Germany. AB Serving the world population with adequate drinking water and sanitation is an important prerequisite, not only to hygienic safety, but to prosperity and political stability as well, and will foster the adaptive capacity of the societies in the developing countries and beyond. To avoid hygienic and political disasters impacting the world economy, investment in water supply and sanitation must urgently be made. Whether the classical system of urban water supply and sanitation is appropriate to satisfy the needs of the developing world, however, and whether this system meets the general criteria of sustainability is questionable. The costs and the time needed for installation of sewers and wastewater treatment plants are tremendous. In water shortage areas, the amount of tap water required to transport pollutants to the treatment plant is hardly affordable. Recovery and re-introduction of valuable substances, including water, into the urban cycle of materials is impossible because of mixing and dilution effects inherent in the system. Decentralized water and wastewater management should be seriously taken into account as an alternative. Source separation of specific fractions of domestic and industrial wastewater, separate treatment of these fractions and recovery of water and raw materials including fertilizer and energy are the main characteristics of modern high-tech on-site treatment/reuse systems. Mass production of the key components of the system could reduce the costs of the treatment units to a reasonable level. On-site units could be installed independently of the development stage of the urban sewer system. In conjunction with building new housing complexes a stepwise improvement of the hygienic situation in urban and peri-urban areas could be achieved, therefore. Remote control of the satellite systems using modern telecommunication methods would allow reliable operation, and comfort for the users. Intensive research is required, however, to develop this system and bring it to a standard allowing efficient application worldwide. CR *WORLD COMM ENV DE, 1987, OUR COMM FUT, P211 ATHANASIADIS K, 2003, IN PRESS WAT SCI TEC COSGROVE WJ, 2000, WORLD WATER VISION M DALHOFF R, 2003, P IWA REG C WAT KEY DALHOFF R, 2003, WATER SCI TECHNOL, V48, P163 HUESEMANN MH, 2001, ECOL ECON, V37, P271 LARSEN T, 1996, WAT SCI TECH, V35, P3 LARSEN TA, 1996, WATER SCI TECHNOL, V34, P87 LARSEN TA, 2001, ENVIRON SCI TECHNOL, V35, A192 OTTERPOHL R, 1997, WATER SCI TECHNOL, V35, P121 VANHUIZEN D, 1997, WATER ENV FEDERATION, P49 VONCARLOWITZ HC, 2000, ANWEISUNG WILDEN BAU, V135 WEBER WJ, 2002, WATER SCI TECHNOL, V46, P241 WILDERER PA, 2000, WATER SCI TECHNOL, V41, P1 WILDERER PA, 2001, SQUENCING BATCH REAC WILDERER PA, 2002, DANUBE RIVER BASIN L, V34, P229 ZEEMAN G, 2000, WATER SCI TECHNOL, V41, P9 NR 17 TC 0 J9 WATER SCI TECHNOL BP 8 EP 16 PY 2004 VL 49 IS 7 GA 834HB UT ISI:000222401100008 ER PT J AU Butzer, KW TI Environmental history in the Mediterranean world: cross-disciplinary investigation of cause-and-effect for degradation and soil erosion SO JOURNAL OF ARCHAEOLOGICAL SCIENCE LA English DT Article C1 Univ Texas, Dept Geog & Environm, Austin, TX 78712 USA. RP Butzer, KW, Univ Texas, Dept Geog & Environm, Austin, TX 78712 USA. AB Environmental history is a multidisciplinary enterprise united by shared interests in ecological change and the complex interactions between people and the environment. Its practitioners include expertise in the natural sciences, ill history or archaeology, or in political ecology and related social sciences; but there is no agreement on a common agenda and limited success in bridging methodological and epistemological divisions that impede integrative and interdisciplinary research. World-systems history and environmental history also have overlapping interests in long-term change and matters of sustainability. The Mediterranean world sustained agricultural lifeways across some 8000 years, yet its environment has repeatedly been described as degraded, suggesting conceptual confusion between transformation and destruction. This paper is didactic in purpose and uses landscape histories for the Peloponnese and eastern Spain to show that the impact of recurrent, excessive precipitation events and of reduced quality of land cover are difficult to unravel, because they commonly appear to work in tandem. As a result (a) environmental change cannot be assumed or "predicted", but must be studied inductively by experts with science skills, and (b) cause-and-effect relationships demand an understanding of ecological behavior, for which humanistic insights are indispensable. Social science models highlight systemic relationships from socioeconomic and structural perspectives., but are less suited to deal with the complexity of environmental change or the contingencies exemplified by human resilience. Near Eastern.. Greek and Roman agronomic writings offer elite "voices" that speak to cumulative technological change, scientific understanding, and the context of intensification. Rural voices can be heard through ethnography, and in eastern Spain are extended into the past by archaeology and archival research. In the absence of structural constraints, they reveal collective decision-making with respect to a shifting repertoire of agricultural strategies that take into account market opportunities, demographic growth, finite resources and environmental problems. Such adaptability spells resilience, and "good farming" is culturally embedded as a civic responsibility, both in the ethnographic present and in the older, elite agronomic writings. But if the "moral economy" erodes in the wake of food stress, tax extortion, instability, insecurity, or ideological oppression, there is little incentive to pursue long-term strategies, so that behavior focuses on short-term survival. The context for this dialectic of poor versus good ecological management may be structural, but cause-and-effect in the traditional Mediterranean world ultimately depended on ecological and human resilience. Long-term sustainability is similarly non-predictive. It depends on people, rather than social theory. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 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AB Several studies have estimated the possible impacts and adjustments in U.S. agriculture resulting from a future change in climate. This paper examines how these adjustments and shifting climate conditions could affect the nation's crop weather insurance industry, including its ability to provide adequate coverage. Shifts in crop varieties, the extension of new crops into new areas, and changes in crop yields would all affect establishment of rates and many other industry practices, but we expect that these shifts could be adjusted to using existing techniques and field research. What will be most difficult to react to will be the shifting weather risk, such as ever-changing storm frequencies or intensities. Current practices of rate development and regulation of insurance rates are based on historical data, not on anticipation of future weather shifts. Outcomes seen during such climate transition periods with their inherent uncertainty include a reduced industry zeal for accepting risk. This would likely include declination of coverage, reduced coverage per unit area, and lower yield guarantees. These acts would lead to more self-insurance by crop producers, which would involve more crop diversification and greater dispersion of crops over an area. CR 1990, POLICYMAKERS SUMMARY BOWMAN JA, 1987, 109 ILL STAT WAT SUR CHANGNON SA, 1973, W GEOGRAPHICAL SERIE, P134 CHANGNON SA, 1990, J CLIMATE, V3, P568 CHANGNON SA, 1992, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V14, P191 COGAN DG, 1992, GREENHOUSE GAMBIT BU EASTERLING WE, 1990, FARM LEVEL ADJUSTMEN EASTERLING WE, 1992, ADAPTING US AGR CLIM FLORESMENDOZA FJ, 1989, INFLUENCE CLIMATE CH FRIEDMAN DG, 1988, P N AM C PREP CLIM C, P389 KARL TR, 1991, SCIENCE, V251, P1058 PEART RM, 1989, US EPA PM221 PETERSEN DF, 1990, IRRIGATION CLIMATE C, P243 RITCHIE JT, 1989, US EPA PM221 ROSENBERG NJ, 1991, PROCESSES IDENTIFYIN ROSENBERG NJ, 1992, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V21, P385 NR 16 TC 6 J9 BULL AMER METEOROL SOC BP 1703 EP 1708 PY 1993 PD SEP VL 74 IS 9 GA LY463 UT ISI:A1993LY46300004 ER PT J AU WILKINSON, TJ TI THE STRUCTURE AND DYNAMICS OF DRY-FARMING STATES IN UPPER MESOPOTAMIA SO CURRENT ANTHROPOLOGY LA English DT Review RP WILKINSON, TJ, UNIV CHICAGO,INST ORIENTAL,1155 E 58TH ST,CHICAGO,IL 60637. AB A model describing the layout of Early Bronze Age Mesopotamian states is synthesized using a range of off-site and on-site data from Syria, Iraq, and Turkey. These allow the description of the basic settlement patterns, land use, and exchange systems of an early state system. The hypothesis is tested that Bronze Age settlements in this zone of rain-fed farming tended not to exceed 100 hectares, an area which was capable of accommodating between 10,000 and 20,000 people. Detailed off-site surveys and landscape archaeology suggest that these settlements were provisioned by intensively farmed zones of cultivation that surrounded the central settlement and by tributary secondary or satellite communities. This main production zone was just capable of supporting the population of the prime site, but the constraint of labour and the frictional effect of distance meant that food produced farther away than some 10-15 km made only a minor contribution to the main settlement. 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WILKINSON TJ, 1990, ORIENTAL I PUBLICATI, V109 WILKINSON TJ, 1993, ANTIQUITY, V67, P548 WRIGHT HE, 1993, CURR ANTHROPOL, V34, P458 WRIGHT HT, 1969, 38 U MICH MUS ANTHR YOFFEE N, 1979, AM ANTIQUITY, V44, P5 YOFFEE N, 1988, COLLAPSE ANCIENT STA, P44 ZACCAGNINI C, 1975, ORIENS ANTIQUUS, V14, P181 ZEDER MA, 1991, FEEDING CITIES SPECI ZEDER MA, 1994, AM ANTHROPOL, V96, P97 ZOHARY D, 1969, DOMESTICATION EXPLOI, P47 NR 211 TC 16 J9 CURR ANTHROPOL BP 483 EP 520 PY 1994 PD DEC VL 35 IS 5 GA PR301 UT ISI:A1994PR30100001 ER PT J AU YARNAL, B TI AGRICULTURAL DECOLLECTIVIZATION AND VULNERABILITY TO ENVIRONMENTAL-CHANGE - A BULGARIAN CASE-STUDY SO GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS LA English DT Article RP YARNAL, B, PENN STATE UNIV,CTR EARTH SYST SCI,302 WALKER BLDG,UNIVERSITY PK,PA 16802. AB Is the transformation from Communism to a more market-based society making Bulgarians - and particularly farmers more vulnerable to environmental change? Intensive, open-ended interviews suggest that government policies, new privatization laws and the nation's economic crisis are decreasing farmers' flexibility and removing social safety nets. Yet generalizations are difficult because implementation of the decollectivization process is different at each cooperative farm, thus creating varying levels of vulnerability. Easing the crisis is the tradition of family-based, small-plot gardening, which appears to ensure sufficient food for most Bulgarians. 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RP Mendelsohn, R, Yale Univ, Sch Forestry & Environm Studies, 360 Prospect St, New Haven, CT 06511 USA. AB Firms and individuals will likely engage in substantial private adaptation with respect to climate change in such sectors as farming, energy, timber, and recreation because it is in their interest to do so. The shared benefit nature of joint adaptation, however, will cause individuals to underprovide joint adaptation in such areas as water control, sea walls, and ecological management. Governments need to start thinking about joint adaptation, being careful to design efficient responses which treat climate change problems as they arise. CR ADAMS R, 1998, EC IMPACT CLIMATE CH ARROW K, 1963, SOCIAL CHOICE INDIVI BRUCE J, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995 CARTER T, 1994, IPCC TECHNICAL GUIDE EASTERLING WE, 1993, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V24, P23 ESTY DC, 1998, POLICY SCI, V31, P225 FANKHAUSER S, 1999, ECOL ECON, V30, P67 GOKLANY IM, 1995, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V30, P427 HOUGHTON J, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995 KAISER HM, 1993, AM J AGR ECON, V75, P387 KUMAR K, 1998, EC IMPACT CLIMATE CH KUMAR K, 1998, MEASURING IMPACT CLI MELILLO JM, 1995, GLOBAL BIOGEOCHEM CY, V9, P407 MENDELSOHN R, 1994, AM ECON REV, V84, P753 MENDELSOHN R, 1996, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V80, P55 MENDELSOHN R, 1997, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V37, P271 MORRISON W, 1998, EC IMPACT CLIMATE CH ROSENZWEIG C, 1994, NATURE, V367, P133 SAMUELSON PA, 1954, REV ECON STAT, V36, P387 SANGHI A, 1998, MEASURING IMPACT CLI SMITH JB, 1996, CLIMATE RES, V6, P193 TOL RSJ, 1998, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V8, P109 WATSON RT, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, V1, P1 YOHE GW, 1996, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V32, P387 NR 24 TC 3 J9 CLIMATIC CHANGE BP 583 EP 600 PY 2000 PD JUN VL 45 IS 3-4 GA 324XH UT ISI:000087646800014 ER PT J AU Easterling, WE TI Adapting North American agriculture to climate change in review SO AGRICULTURAL AND FOREST METEOROLOGY LA English DT Article RP Easterling, WE, UNIV NEBRASKA,DEPT AGR METEOROL,POB 830725,LINCOLN,NE 68583. AB The adaptability of North American agriculture to climate change is assessed through a review of current literature. A baseline of North American agriculture without climate change suggests that farming faces serious challenges in the future (e.g. declining domestic demand, loss of comparative advantage, rising environmental costs). Climate change adjustments at the farm-level and in government policy, including international trade policy, are inventoried from the literature. The adaptive potential of agriculture is demonstrated historically with situations that are analogous to climate change, including the translocation of crops across natural climate gradients, the rapid introduction of new crops such as soybeans in the US and canola in Canada, and resource substitutions prompted by changes in prices of production inputs. A wide selection of modeling studies is reviewed which, in net, suggests several agronomic and economic adaptation strategies that are available to agriculture. Agronomic strategies include changes in crop varieties and species, timing of operations, and land management including irrigation. Economic strategies include investment in new technologies, infrastructure and labor, and shifts in international trade. Overall, such agronomic strategies were found to offset either partially or completely the loss of productivity caused by climate change. Economic adaptations were found to render the agricultural costs of climate change small by comparison with the overall expansion of agricultural production. New avenues of adaptive research are recommended including the formalization of the incorporation of adaptation strategies into modeling, linkage of adaptation to the terrestrial carbon cycle, anticipation of future technologies, attention to scaling from in situ modeling to the landscape scale, expansion of data sets and the measurement and modeling of unpriced costs. The final assessment is that climate change should not pose an insurmountable obstacle to North American agriculture. The portfolio of assets needed to adapt is large in terms of land, water, energy, genetic diversity, physical intrastructure and human resources, research capacity and information systems, and political institutions and world trade-the research reviewed here gives ample evidence of the ability of agriculture to utilize such assets. In conclusion, the apparent efficiency with which North American agriculture may adapt to climate changes provides little inducement for diverting agricultural adaptation resources to efforts to slow or halt the climate changes. CR *CAST, 1992, 119 CAST US AGR GLOB *HIGH PLAINS ASS, 1982, C BRIEF 6 STAT HIGH *NAT RES COUNC, 1991, POL IMPL GREENH WARM *OFF TECHN ASS, 1992, NEW TECHN ER AM AGR *USDA, 1990, MISCELLANEOUS PUBLIC, V1482 ADAMS R, 1989, POTENTIAL EFFECTS GL, V1, P4 ALLEN R, 1989, POTENTIAL EFFECTS GL, V1, P6 ANTLE JM, 1996, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V80, P67 AUSUBEL JH, 1980, CLIMATIC CONSTAINTS BACH W, 1979, ENVIRON INT, V2, P215 BARKEMA A, 1988, EC REV FED RESERVE B, P3 BOCKSTADTER TL, 1989, IRRIGATION MANAGEMEN BOGGESS WG, 1985, S J AGR EC, V17, P105 BRIGGLE LW, 1987, WHEAT WHEAT IMPROVEM, P1 BUTTLER JW, 1989, GAPS GEN PURPOSE SIM COX TS, 1986, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V83, P5583 CROSSON PR, 1989, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V15, P51 CROSSON PR, 1989, GREENHOUSE WARMING A, P69 CROSSON PR, 1991, AGR PRODUCTION RESOU CULOTTA E, 1995, SCIENCE, V268, P654 DALRYMPLE DG, 1988, AGR HIST, V62, P20 DARMSTADTER J, 1991, PROCESSES IDENTIFYIN DRABENSTOTT M, 1992, EC REV FED RESERVE B, V77, P5 DUNCAN MR, 1989, EC REV FED RESERVE B, P3 EASTERLING WE, 1989, GREENHOUSE WARMING A, P91 EASTERLING WE, 1992, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V59, P3 EASTERLING WE, 1993, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V24, P23 FISCHER G, 1988, LINKED NATL MODELS T FORNARI HD, 1979, AGR HIST, V53, P245 FREDERICK KD, 1991, TR052F US DEP EN GARDNER BL, 1984, RISK MANAGEMENT AGR, P231 GIORGI F, 1991, REV GEOPHYS, V29, P191 GLANTZ MH, 1988, SOC RESPONSES REGION, P113 GLANTZ MH, 1988, SOCIETAL RESPONSES R GRAEDAL TE, 1994, GLOBAL BIOGEOCHEM CY, V7, P1 GUDGER M, 1991, RISK AGR, P143 HANSEN J, 1988, J GEOPHYS RES, V93, P9341 HART JF, 1986, GEOGR REV, V76, P51 HAYAMI Y, 1985, AGR DEV INT PERSPECT HEADY EO, 1984, ENERG AGR, P10 HOUGHTON JT, 1990, CLIMATE CHANGE IPCC HOUGHTON RA, 1994, BIOSCIENCE, V44, P305 JONES CA, 1986, CERES MAIZE SIMULATI JONES J, 1988, SOYGRO V5 41 SOYBEAN KAISER HM, 1993, AM J AGR ECON, V75, P387 KANE SM, 1992, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V21, P17 KANE SM, 1992, EC ISSUES GLOBAL CLI, P117 KATES RW, 1985, CLIMATE IMPACT ASSES, P3 KELLER LF, 1981, WATER RESOURCES B, V17, P647 KHUSH GS, 1993, INT CROP SCI, V1, P189 KIMBALL BA, 1990, AM SOC AGRONOMY SPEC, V53 KROMM DE, 1986, WATER RESOUR BULL, V22, P791 LAWLOR DW, 1991, PLANT CELL ENVIRON, V14, P807 LEHE JM, 1986, P ASS GROUND WAT SCI, P410 LEWANDROWSKI JK, 1992, EC ISSUES GLOBAL CLI, P132 MAJOR DJ, 1991, J PROD AGRIC, V4, P606 MANABE S, 1987, J ATMOS SCI, V44, P1211 MCKENNEY MS, 1992, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V59, P103 MEARNS LO, 1984, J CLIM APPL METEOROL, V23, P1601 MENDELSOHN R, 1994, AM ECON REV, V84, P753 MENDELSOHN R, 1994, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V28, P15 MENDELSOHN R, 1996, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V80, P55 NELLIS MD, 1987, DEMANDS RURAL LAND P, P71 NEWMAN JE, 1982, ENV SOCIAL CONSEQUEN, V2 NORDHAUS WD, 1992, SCIENCE, V258, P1315 PARRY ML, 1988, IMPACT CLIMATIC VARI PHIPPS TT, 1986, AGR ENV RESOURCES FU RIEBSAME WE, 1988, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V13, P69 RIEBSAME WE, 1991, DROUGHT NATURAL RESO RIEBSAME WE, 1991, GREAT PLAINS RES, V1, P133 RITCHIE JT, 1989, POTENTIAL EFFECTS GL, V1 ROBINSON JB, 1985, CLIMATE IMPACT ASSES, P469 ROSENBERG NJ, 1982, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V4, P239 ROSENBERG NJ, 1986, FUTURE N AM GRANARY, P93 ROSENBERG NJ, 1991, ENVIRON CONSERV, V18, P313 ROSENBERG NJ, 1992, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V21, P385 ROSENBERG NJ, 1993, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V24, P7 ROSENZWEIG C, 1989, POTENTIAL EFFECTS GL, V1 ROSENZWEIG C, 1994, NATURE, V367, P133 SAVDIE I, 1991, CAN J PLANT SCI, V71, P21 SCHELLING T, 1983, CHANGING CLIMATE REP SCHLESINGER M, 1988, SEASONAL CLIMATE CHA SCHNEIDER SH, 1989, GREENHOUSE WARMING A, P7 SMIT B, 1993, 19 U GUELPH DEP GEOG SMITH JB, 1989, POTENTIAL EFFECTS GL SONKA ST, 1984, RISK MANAGEMENT AGR, P95 STEPLETON BM, 1986, NAT RESOUR J, V26, P871 STEWART JI, 1990, RISK AGR, P17 SUPALLA R, 1982, J SOIL WATER CONSERV, V37, P310 THOMPSON LM, 1969, J SOIL WATER CONSERV, V24, P219 TYRCHIEWICZ EU, 1986, FUTURE N AM GRANARY, P28 WARRICK RA, 1980, CLIMATIC CONSTRAINTS WILHITE DA, 1988, SOCIETAL RESPONSES R, P353 WILLIAMS JR, 1984, T ASAE, V27, P129 YOHE GW, 1993, ASSESSING SURPRISE N, P109 NR 95 TC 18 J9 AGR FOREST METEOROL BP 1 EP 53 PY 1996 PD JUN VL 80 IS 1 GA UV519 UT ISI:A1996UV51900002 ER PT J AU Pittock, AB Jones, RN TI Adaptation to what and why? SO ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING AND ASSESSMENT LA English DT Article C1 CSIRO, Climate Impacts Grp, Aspendale, Vic 3195, Australia. RP Pittock, AB, CSIRO, Climate Impacts Grp, PB 1, Aspendale, Vic 3195, Australia. AB Adaptation in response to anthropogenic climate change seeks to maintain viability by maximising benefits and minimising losses. It is necessary because some climatic change is now inevitable, despite the international focus on mitigation measures. Indeed, the measures agreed at Kyoto would by themselves result in only a small reduction in the climate changes to be expected over the next century. Discussion of the expected changes and possible impacts leads to the following conclusions regarding climate change scenarios in relation to impacts and adaptation: Climate change in the foreseeable future will not be some new stable "equilibrium" climate, but rather an ongoing "transient" process; Climate change predictions relevant to impacts on most sectors and ecosystems are still highly uncertain; There is a need for a greater focus on developing countries and tropical regions, and on relevant key variables, including the magnitude and frequency of extreme events; The focus should shift from single predictions, or extreme ranges of uncertainty, to risk assessment; Thresholds critical to impacted sectors and ecosystems should be identified, and expressed as functions of climatic variables; Planned adaptations will be necessary to cope with multiple stresses, including those due to non-climatic changes; A major task of adaptation science is to identify the limits of adaptation, i.e., to identify "dangerous levels of greenhouse gases" beyond which adaptation becomes impractical or prohibitively expensive. 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Univ Kassel, Ctr Environm Syst Res, D-34109 Kassel, Germany. RP Lehner, B, World Wildlife Fund US, 1250 24th St NW, Washington, DC 20037 USA. AB Most studies on the impact of climate change on regional water resources focus on long-term average flows or mean water availability, and they rarely take the effects of altered human water use into account. When analyzing extreme events such as floods and droughts, the assessments are typically confined to smaller areas and case studies. At the same time it is acknowledged that climate change may severely alter the risk of hydrological extremes over large regional scales, and that human water use will put additional pressure on future water resources. In an attempt to bridge these various aspects, this paper presents a first-time continental, integrated analysis of possible impacts of global change (here defined as climate and water use change) on future flood and drought frequencies for the selected study area of Europe. The global integrated water model WaterGAP is evaluated regarding its capability to simulate high and low-flow regimes and is then applied to calculate relative changes in flood and drought frequencies. The results indicate large critical regions' for which significant changes in flood or drought risks are expected under the proposed global change scenarios. The regions most prone to a rise in flood frequencies are northern to northeastern Europe, while southern and southeastern Europe show significant increases in drought frequencies. In the critical regions, events with an intensity of today's 100-year floods and droughts may recur every 10-50 years by the 2070s. Though interim and preliminary, and despite the inherent uncertainties in the presented approach, the results underpin the importance of developing mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change impacts on a continental scale. CR *DVWK, 1998, WORK OUT DROUGHT MIT *EEA, 1999, 2 EUR ENV AG *EIA, 2001, INT EN ANN 2001 CARB *GRDC, 1999, LONG TERM MEAN MONTH *IPCC, 1992, CLIM CHANG 1992 S RE *IPCC, 2000, SPEC REP EM SCEN MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 *IPCC, 2001, CLIM CHANG 2001 SCI *WMO, 1994, 168 WORLD MET ORG ALCAMO J, 1998, GLOBALC HANGE SCENAR ALCAMO J, 2003, HYDROLOG SCI J, V48, P317 ALCAMO J, 2003, HYDROLOG SCI J, V48, P339 ARNELL NW, 1994, IAHS PUBL, V221, P179 ARNELL NW, 1999, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V9, P5 ARNELL NW, 2000, EF5VCT930293 U SOUTH ARNELL NW, 2000, EV5VCT940114 U SOUTH BERGKAMP G, 2003, CHANGE ADAPTATION WA BERGSTROM S, 2001, CLIMATE RES, V16, P101 BRADFORD RB, 2000, DROUGHT DROUGHT MITI, V14, P7 BURLANDO P, 2002, HYDROL PROCESS, V16, P1151 BURLANDO P, 2002, HYDROL PROCESS, V16, P1177 CARTER TR, 1994, IPCC TECHNICAL GUIDE CHIEW FHS, 2002, HYDROL PROCESS, V16, P1235 DEMUTH S, 2001, ENVCT970553 U FREIB DOLL P, 2002, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V54, P269 DOLL P, 2002, J HYDROL, V258, P214 DOLL P, 2002, P 3 INT C WAT RES EN, V1, P27 DOLL P, 2003, J HYDROL, V270, P105 DYCK S, 1995, GRUNDLAGEN HYDROLOGI FREI C, 1998, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V25, P1431 GENG S, 1986, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V36, P363 GORDON C, 2000, CLIM DYNAM, V16, P147 HAAN CT, 2002, STAT METHODS HYDROLO HENRI S, 2002, GENES IMMUN, V3, P1 HULME M, 1999, NATURE, V397, P688 HULME M, 2001, CLIMATE RES, V17, P145 JANSSEN PHM, 1995, ECOL MODEL, V83, P55 JONES JAA, 1996, REGIONAL HYDROLOGICA, P87 JONES JAA, 1997, GLOBAL HYDROLOGY PRO JONES JAA, 1999, HYDROLOG SCI J, V44, P541 JONES JAA, 2002, HYDROL PROCESS, V16, P1135 KARL TR, 1993, J CLIMATE, V6, P1481 KATZ RW, 1992, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V21, P289 KILSBY CG, 1999, EV5VCT940510, P113 LEHNE B, 2001, MODELLIERUNG MESO BI, P160 MAIDMENT DR, 1993, HDB HYDROLOGY MEARNS LO, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 MITCHELL TD, 1999, PROG PHYS GEOG, V23, P57 NEW M, 2000, J CLIMATE, V13, P2217 PARRY ML, 2000, EUROPE ACACIA PROJEC PILLING CG, 2002, HYDROL PROCESS, V16, P1201 PRUDHOMME C, 2002, HYDROL PROCESS, V16, P1137 ROCKNER E, 1999, J CLIMATE, V12, P3004 SMAKHTIN VU, 2001, J HYDROL, V240, P147 TALLAKSEN LM, 2000, DROUGHT DROUGHT MITI, V14, P103 TATE EL, 2000, DROUGHT DROUGHT MITI, V14, P23 VOSS R, 2002, INT J CLIMATOL, V22, P755 WATSON RT, 1998, REGIONAL IMPACTS CLI, V1, P1 WILBY RL, 1997, PROG PHYS GEOG, V21, P530 XU CY, 1999, PROG PHYS GEOG, V23, P229 NR 60 TC 0 J9 CLIMATIC CHANGE BP 273 EP 299 PY 2006 PD APR VL 75 IS 3 GA 046EC UT ISI:000237793200001 ER PT J AU Reed, MS Dougill, AJ TI Participatory selection process for indicators of rangeland condition in the Kalahari SO GEOGRAPHICAL JOURNAL LA English DT Article C1 Univ Leeds, Sch Environm, Leeds Environm & Dev Grp, Leeds LS2 9JT, W Yorkshire, England. RP Reed, MS, Univ Leeds, Sch Environm, Leeds Environm & Dev Grp, Leeds LS2 9JT, W Yorkshire, England. AB To develop indicator-based management tools that can facilitate sustainable natural resource management by non-specialists, meaningful participation of stakeholders is essential. A participatory framework is proposed for the identification, evaluation and selection of rangeland condition indicators. This framework is applied to the assessment of rangeland degradation processes and sustainable natural resource management with pastoralists in the southern Kalahari, Botswana. Farmer knowledge focused on vegetation and livestock, with soil, wild animal and socio-economic indicators playing a lesser role. Most were indicators of current rangeland condition; however 'early warning' indicators were also identified by some key informants. This demonstrates that some local knowledge is process-based. Such knowledge could be used to improve indicator-based management tools and extension advice on the livelihood adaptations necessary to prevent or reduce ecological change, capable of threatening livelihood sustainability. There is evidence that social background influences indicator use. Communal farmers rely most heavily on vegetation and livestock indicators, whilst syndicate and landowning pastoralists cite wild animal and soil-based indicators most frequently. These factors must be considered if indicator-based management tools are to meet the requirements of a diverse community. 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Ohio State Univ, Dept Agr Environm & Dev Econ, Columbus, OH 43210 USA. Ohio State Univ, Sch Nat Resources, Columbus, OH 43210 USA. Univ Arizona, Dept Geog & Reg Dev, Tucson, AZ 85721 USA. Michigan State Univ, Environm Sci & Policy Program, E Lansing, MI 48824 USA. Michigan State Univ, Dept CARRS, E Lansing, MI 48824 USA. RP Thompson, A, Ohio State Univ, Dept Polit Sci, 2120 Fyffe Rd, Columbus, OH 43210 USA. 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RP Morf, A, Univ Gothenburg, Human Ecol Sect, Box 700, SE-40530 Gothenburg, Sweden. AB This article analyses four main models of participation in Swedish natural resource management and assesses strengths and weaknesses of one model (participation in physical/spatial planning) based on empirical studies of coastal resource conflicts in two Swedish west coast municipalities. In comparison to other administrative and planning procedures, physical planning offers possibilities to coordinate land and water management across sectors and resources and to broaden stakeholder participation. Local influence on coastal management increases with participation beyond the statutory minimum requirements, although management frameworks and practice of participation need to be developed further. Besides educating professionals and experimenting with combinations of existing procedures, in the long run an adaptation of legislation to the requirements of integrated and sustainable coastal management will be necessary. CR *EUR COMM, 2002, PROP EUR PARL COUNC *MAR RES COMM DSH, 1989, COMP COAST WAT PLANN, P4 *NORCOAST, 1999, REV NAT REG PLANN PR *SOU, 1996, SUST DEV ARCH SWED *SOU, 2000, LIV ARCH EV REG ENV *SOU, 2002, CLEAR WAT REP SOU *SOU, 2003, SEA TIM NEW STRAT RE *SWED NAT BOARD HO, 1998, CIT PART MUN PLANN E ABRAHAMSON KV, 1990, COAST PLACE REASON P ALEXANDERSSON U, 1995, NEW TRACKS EXPERIENC ALFREDSSON B, 1997, SWEDISH PLANNING SUS, P11 AREN H, 1994, EVERYTHING POSSIBLE AREN H, 1996, KOSTER SUBURB PLACE BJUR H, 1985, PLANS REALITY BLOMQVIST A, 2003, WATERCOURSE GROUPS R CICINSAIN B, 1998, INTEGRATED COASTAL O CREIGHTON JL, 1998, 82R1 IWR CREIGHTON JL, 1998, 82R5 IWR DIETZ T, 2003, HUM ECOL REV, V10, P3 FRENCH P, 1997, COASTAL ESTUARINE MA GIPPERTH L, 2005, AMBIO, V35, P154 GLESBYGDSVERKET, 1997, STRAT ACT PROGR ARCH JOHANSSON M, 2001, ARENA SUSTAINABLE DE, P61 KAY R, 1999, COASTAL PLANNING MAN LARSSON G, 2000, 479TRITAFAT82 ROY TU LINDNER W, 1996, PLANUNG KOMMUNIKATIO, P181 MALBERT B, 1998, URBAN PLANNING PARTI MILLER T, 1988, THESIS ROYAL I TECHN MORF A, 1999, HUMAN ECOLOGY MORF A, 2003, PUBL PART PLANN FOR MORF A, 2005, LOC PART COAST MAN M OSTROM E, 1996, RIGHTS NATURE ECOLOG, P127 PIDO MD, 1992, ICLARM C P, V37, P133 PIRIZ L, 2004, 52640 SWED ENV PROT PRETTY J, 2002, AGR CULTURE RECONNEC PRETTY JN, 1995, WORLD DEV, V23, P1247 RENN O, 1995, FAIR COMPETENT CITIZ RONNBY A, 1995, LOCAL FORCE PEOPLE D SKOGLUND K, 1997, PLANNING LOCAL PERSP SUNDH K, 1995, SOCIAL MOBILIZATION WITTGREN HB, 2000, VASTRA REPORT NR 41 TC 0 J9 AMBIO BP 74 EP 83 PY 2005 PD MAR VL 34 IS 2 GA 912PE UT ISI:000228090700004 ER PT J AU Sparks, TH Croxton, PJ Collinson, N Taylor, PW TI Examples of phenological change, past and present, in UK farming SO ANNALS OF APPLIED BIOLOGY LA English DT Article C1 NERC Ctr Ecol & Hydrol, Huntingdon PE28 2LS, Cambs, England. Woodland Trust, Grantham NG31 6LL, Lincolnshire, England. RP Sparks, TH, NERC Ctr Ecol & Hydrol, Monks Wood, Huntingdon PE28 2LS, Cambs, England. AB This paper examines a large number of agricultural and other phenological records kept by a fanner in Sussex, UK from 1980 to 2000. Twenty five of the 29 events were earlier in 1990-2000 than in 1980-1989. The average advancement of all 29 events was 5.5 days at a time when January-March mean temperature increased by 1.4 degrees C. In comparing the events with monthly mean temperatures, 18 of the events were significantly negatively related to temperatures of the three calendar months preceding the mean event date. Response rates to temperature varied between 4 and 12 days earlier for each degrees C warmer. A comparison with historical fanning records reveals that many of the current farming events appear as responsive to temperature now as they were 200 years ago. CR ABUASAB MS, 2001, BIODIVERS CONSERV, V10, P597 BEEBEE TJC, 1995, NATURE, V374, P219 BURTON JF, 2003, ATALANTA, V34, P3 CHMIELEWSKI FM, 2004, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V121, P69 CRICK HQP, 1999, NATURE, V399, P423 FITTER AH, 2002, SCIENCE, V296, P1689 HANKS GR, 1996, J HORTIC SCI BIOTECH, V71, P517 HULME M, 2002, CLIMATE CHANGE SCENA LEHIKOINEN E, 2004, ADV ECOL RES, V35, P1 MARGARY ID, 1926, Q J ROY METEOR SOC, V52, P27 MATSUMOTO K, 2003, GLOBAL CHANGE BIOL, V9, P1634 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 MENZEL A, 1999, NATURE, V397, P659 PARKER DE, 1992, INT J CLIMATOL, V12, P317 RUSSELL SC, 1921, Q J ROY METEOR SOC, V47, P57 SPARKS T, 2002, CLIMATE CHANGE IMPAC, P69 SPARKS TH, 1999, ESSEX BIRD REP, P154 SPARKS TH, 2000, INT J BIOMETEOROL, V44, P82 SPARKS TH, 2002, INT J CLIMATOL, V22, P1715 SPARKS TH, 2002, WEATHER, V57, P157 WILLIAMS TA, 2004, OECOLOGIA, V138, P122 ZHOU XL, 1995, GLOBAL CHANGE BIOL, V1, P303 NR 22 TC 2 J9 ANN APPL BIOL BP 531 EP 537 PY 2005 VL 146 IS 4 GA 958RO UT ISI:000231465600014 ER PT J AU Mossler, M TI Environmental hazard analysis and small island states: Rethinking academic approaches SO GEOGRAPHISCHE ZEITSCHRIFT LA English DT Article RP Mossler, M, RUTGERS STATE UNIV,DEPT GEOG,LUCY STONE HALL,LIVINGSTON CAMPUS,POB 5080,NEW BRUNSWICK,NJ 08903. CR *GOV GREN ORG AM S, 1988, ID MON MIT HAZ RISKS *PANC DIS PREP PRE, 1984, NEWSLETTER OCT, P8 ALEXANDER D, 1991, DISASTERS, V15, P209 ALEXANDER D, 1992, ENVIRON GEOL WATER S, V20, P165 ALEXANDER D, 1995, NATURAL DISASTERS BENDER SO, 1989, C DIS SUST DEV LOOK, P88 BERKE P, 1991, LINKING HURRICANE DI BERKE P, 1991, MONTSERRAT EMERGENCY BOGARD WC, 1988, SOCIOL PERSPECT, V31, P147 BURTON I, 1978, ENV HAZARD, V1, P1 CAMBERS G, 1993, RISK ISLANDS E CARIB COLLYMORE JM, 1989, DISASTER MANAGEMENT, V2, P87 COLLYMORE JM, 1992, DISASTER MANAGEMENT, V4, P163 CROSS JA, 1992, J GEOGR, V91, P190 CUNY FC, 1983, DISASTERS DEV CUTTER S, 1994, ENV RISKS HAZARDS CUTTER SL, 1989, PROF GEOGR, V41, P149 DEGG M, 1992, GEOGRAPHY, V77, P198 HAMMERTON JL, 1984, DISASTERS, V8, P279 HEWITT K, 1971, HAZARDOUSNESS PLACE HEWITT K, 1983, INTERPRETATIONS CALA KATES RW, 1994, ENV RISKS HAZARDS, P78 LEWIS J, 1981, PAC VIEWPOINT, V22, P145 LEWIS J, 1984, DISASTERS, V8, P190 LEWIS J, 1990, DISASTERS, V14, P241 MARSTON SA, 1983, POLIT GEOGR QUART, V2, P339 MCINTOSH CE, 1984, DISASTERS, V8, P273 MEYERARENDT KJ, 1991, GEOJOURNAL, V23, P323 MITCHELL JK, 1985, DISASTERS, V9, P286 MITCHELL JK, 1989, GEOGR REV, V79, P391 MITCHELL JK, 1989, GEOGRAPHY AM, P410 OKEEFE P, 1976, NATURE, V260, P566 PALM RI, 1990, NATURAL HAZARDS INTE PERNETTA JC, 1992, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V2, P19 SAVAGE M, 1993, GEOGR REV, V83, P290 SMITH K, 1992, ENV HAZARDS ASSESSIN TIMMERMAN P, 1981, ENV MONOGRAPH, V1, P1 TOMBLIN J, 1981, AMBIO, V10, P340 VERMEIREN JC, 1991, CARIBBEAN ECOLOGY EC, P127 WATTS MJ, 1983, INTERPRETATIONS CALA, P231 WATTS MJ, 1993, GEOJOURNAL, V30, P117 WHITE GF, 1974, NATURAL HAZARDS LOCA WISNER B, 1993, GEOJOURNAL, V30, P127 NR 43 TC 0 J9 GEOGR Z BP 86 EP 93 PY 1996 VL 84 IS 2 GA WM498 UT ISI:A1996WM49800004 ER PT J AU Ramakrishnan, PS TI Sustainable development, climate change and tropical rain forest landscape SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 Jawaharlal Nehru Univ, Sch Environm Sci, New Delhi 110067, India. RP Ramakrishnan, PS, Jawaharlal Nehru Univ, Sch Environm Sci, New Delhi 110067, India. AB A potential impact of climate change in the south Asian context in general and the Indian subcontinent in particular is an increase in rainfall, in some areas up to 50%. Using an extensive information base available on the dynamics of landscape structure and function of the northeastern hill areas of India, scenarios on landscape changes, as an adaptation to climate change, have been constructed. Climate change would impose a variety of stresses on sustainable livelihood of the inhabitants of the rain-forested areas through stresses on ecosystem function. It is concluded that appropriate management strategies for natural forests and plantation forestry should go hand in hand with a comprehensive rural ecosystem rehabilitation plan. CR 1980, VILLAGE DEV BOARDS M, P39 *FAO SIDA, 1974, SEM SHIFT CULT SOIL, P248 *GCTE, 1994, GLOB CHANG TERR EC O, P35 ALTIERI MA, 1990, AGROECOLOGY RES ECOL, P70 BROOKFIELD H, 1994, ENVIRONMENT, V36, P37 DAZHONG W, 1990, AGROECOLOGY RES ECOL, P322 GLIESSMAN SR, 1988, WEED MANAGEMENT AGRO, P237 GLIESSMAN SR, 1990, ECOL STUD, V78, P380 HARE WL, 1990, ECOLOGICALLY SUSTAIN KHIEWTAM RS, 1993, FOREST ECOL MANAG, V60, P327 KLINGE H, 1973, TROPIC ECOL, V14, P28 LETOURNEAU DK, 1990, AGROECOLOGY RES ECOL, P11 LITSINGER JA, 1976, MULTIPLE CROPPING, P293 RAMAKRISHNAN PS, 1984, ENVIRON CONSERV, V11, P170 RAMAKRISHNAN PS, 1992, IMPACT SCI SOC, V42, P149 RAMAKRISHNAN PS, 1992, UNESCO MAB SERIES, P424 RAMAKRISHNAN PS, 1993, SUSTAINABILITY DO WE, P165 RAMAKRISHNAN PS, 1994, HIMALAYAN ENV SUSTAI, P84 RAMAKRISHNAN PS, 1994, MANAGEMENT TROPICAL, P189 RAMAKRISHNAN PS, 1994, SPECIAL PUBLICATION, P29 RAMAKRISHNAN PS, 1995, BIODIVERSITY SCI DEV, P114 SPEDDING CRW, 1979, INTRO AGR SYSTEMS, P169 STARK N, 1977, ECOLOGY, V58, P434 SWIFT MJ, 1996, SCOPE SERIES, P261 VANDERMEER J, 1989, ECOLOGY INTERCROPPIN VANDERMEER J, 1990, AGROECOLOGY RES ECOL, P205 WHITMORE TC, 1990, INTRO TROPICAL RAIN, P226 NR 27 TC 2 J9 CLIMATIC CHANGE BP 583 EP 600 PY 1998 PD JUL VL 39 IS 2-3 GA 108TE UT ISI:000075280900023 ER PT J AU Christenson, M Manz, H Gyalistras, D TI Climate warming impact on degree-days and building energy demand in Switzerland SO ENERGY CONVERSION AND MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article C1 Swiss Fed Labs Mat Testing & Tes, EMPA, Lab Appl Phys Bldg, CH-8600 Dubendorf, Switzerland. Swiss Fed Inst Technol, ETH Zurich, Inst Terr Ecol, CH-8952 Schlieren, Switzerland. RP Manz, H, Swiss Fed Labs Mat Testing & Tes, EMPA, Lab Appl Phys Bldg, CH-8600 Dubendorf, Switzerland. AB The impact of climate warming on Swiss building energy demand was investigated by means of the degree-days method. A procedure to estimate heating degree-days (HDD) and cooling degree-days (CDD) from monthly temperature data was developed, tested and applied to four representative Swiss locations. Past trends were determined from homogenized temperature data for the period 1901-2003. The range of possible future trends for the 21st century was assessed based on 41 regional climate change scenarios derived from 35 simulations with 8 global climate models. During 1901-2003, the HDD were found to have decreased by 11-18%, depending on the threshold temperature (8, 10 or 12 degrees C) and location. For the period 1975-2085, the scenario calculations suggested a further decrease between 13% and 87%. For CDD, accelerating positive trends were found during the 20th and 21st centuries. The HDD showed the largest absolute and the CDD the largest relative sensitivity to warming (albeit starting from relatively low levels). Weather data currently used for building design increasingly lead to an overestimation of heating and underestimation of cooling demand in buildings and, thus, require periodic adaptation. Projections were particularly sensitive to the choice of temperature scenario. Nevertheless, they suggest for the next decades significant, seasonally and regionally variable shifts in the energy consumption of Swiss buildings that deserve further study. In particular, greater attention needs to be paid in future to the summer thermal behaviour of buildings. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *AM SOC HEAT REFR, 2001, ASHRAE FUND HDB 2001 *BUWAL, 2002, CLIM HUM HANDS NEW F *SIA, 1982, 3813 SIA BADESCU V, 1999, ENERG CONVERS MANAGE, V40, P885 BEGERT M, 2003, NORM90 MET SWISS BELZER DB, 1996, ENERG SOURCE, V18, P177 BOER GJ, 2000, CLIM DYNAM, V16, P427 BOER GJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, P525 CANNISTRARO G, 1995, ENERGY, V20, P637 CARTALIS C, 2001, ENERGY CONVERSION MA, V42, P1656 EMORI S, 1999, J METEOROL SOC JPN, V77, P1299 ERBS DG, 1983, ASHRAE J, V25, P60 GELEGENIS JJ, 1999, RENEW ENERG, V18, P49 GIORGI F, 2002, J CLIMATE, V15, P1141 GORDON C, 2000, CLIM DYNAM, V16, P147 GYALISTRAS D, 1994, CLIM RES, V4, P167 GYALISTRAS D, 1998, VIEWS ALPS REGIONAL, P171 GYALISTRAS D, 2000, KLIMAWANDEL SCHWEIZE, P197 GYALISTRAS D, 2002, UNCERTAINTY ANAL MON GYALISTRAS D, 2003, CLIMATE RES, V25, P55 JASPER K, 2004, CLIMATE RES, V26, P113 KERNEN R, 2002, GCMDAT VERSION 1 1 D LEGGETT J, 1992, CLIMATE CHANGE 1992, P69 MEARNS LO, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, P739 NAKICENOVIC N, 2000, IPCC SPECIAL REPORT PRETLOVE SEC, 1998, P CIBSE BUILD SERV E, V19, P55 ROSENTHAL DH, 1995, ENERGY J, V16, P77 SKARTVEIT A, 1992, DESIGN REFERENCE YEA THOM HC, 1954, MON WEA REV, V82, P111 WASHINGTON WM, 2000, CLIM DYNAM, V16, P755 NR 30 TC 1 J9 ENERG CONV MANAGE BP 671 EP 686 PY 2006 PD APR VL 47 IS 6 GA 013DP UT ISI:000235390100002 ER PT J AU Smith, JB Lenhart, SS TI Climate change adaptation policy options SO CLIMATE RESEARCH LA English DT Article RP Smith, JB, HAGLER BAILLY INC,PO DRAWER O,BOULDER,CO 80306. AB Africa is one of the regions of the world potentially most vulnerable to climate change. Warming of the globe due to increased atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases appears to be inevitable. Therefore, it is imperative that policy makers in regions such as Africa begin to consider what measures they should take to adapt to the potential conseqences of climate change. A number of adaptation policies are suggested here. The policies address general adaptation measures as well as specific measures in water resources, coastal resources (adapting to sea-level rise), forests, ecosystems, and agriculture. These measures would enhance the flexibility of resources to adapt to climate change and would have net benefits greater than costs. In some cases, the measures make sense without considering climate change because they help address current climate variability. In other cases, the measures must be implemented in anticipation of climate change because they would be ineffective if implemented as a reaction to climate change. CR *CAN CLIM PROGR, 1993, 19 U GUELPH *IPCC, 1990, POL MAK SUMM FORM RE *NAS, 1992, POL IMPL GREENH WARM *OTA, 1993, PREPARING UNCERTAIN, V1 *OTA, 1993, PREPARING UNCERTAIN, V2 *UNEP WMO, 1992, UN FRAM CONV CLIM CH *WORLD BANK, 1992, 1992 WORLD BANK *WORLD RES I, 1994, WORLD RES 1994 95 COOPER CF, 1992, SENSITIVITIES W US E EASTERLING WE, 1993, PREPARING UNCERTAIN, V1, P303 ELRAEY M, 1995, EGYPT J COAST RES, V14, P190 FREDERICK KD, 1989, GREENHOUSE WARMING A, P133 FREDERICK KD, 1990, CLIMATE CHANGE US WA, P395 FRENCH GT, 1995, J COASTAL RES, V14, P224 GILLILAN D, 1992, INNOVATIVE APPROACHE GLEICK P, 1993, WATER CRISIS HOUGHTON JT, 1990, CLIMATE CHANGE IPCC HOUGHTON JT, 1992, CLIMATE CHANGE 1992 JOHDA NS, 1989, GREENHOUSE WARMING A, P147 LEWANDROWSKI JK, 1993, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V23, P1 LILLIEHOLM RJ, 1993, PREPARING UNCERTAIN, V2, P244 MITCHELL JFB, 1995, NATURE, V376, P501 ROSENZWEIG C, 1994, NATURE, V367, P133 SCHAD TM, 1992, NEW COMMISSION STUDY SMITH JB, IN PRESS ENV PROF SMITH JB, 1989, EPA2300589050 SMITH JB, 1995, CLIMATE CHANGES INT, P4 SMITH W, 1992, WORKSH CONV OFF TECH STRZEPEK KM, 1995, CLIMATE CHANGES INT TEGART WJ, 1990, CLIMATE CHANGE IPCC THEU J, IN PRESS ADAPTING CL THOMSON DJ, 1995, SCIENCE, V268, P59 WAHL R, 1992, MANAGEMENT WATER RES WANG B, 1995, J COASTAL RES, V14, P151 WARREN RS, 1992, COASTAL LAND VULNERA WIGLEY TML, 1992, NATURE, V357, P293 WILHITE DA, 1990, IDIC TECHNICAL SERIE, V901 NR 37 TC 10 J9 CLIMATE RES BP 193 EP 201 PY 1996 PD FEB 19 VL 6 IS 2 GA UD549 UT ISI:A1996UD54900014 ER PT J AU Alexandrov, VA Hoogenboom, G TI Vulnerability and adaptation assessments of agricultural crops under climate change in the Southeastern USA SO THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY LA English DT Review C1 Natl Meteorol & Hydrol, BG-1784 Sofia, Bulgaria. Univ Georgia, Griffin, GA 30223 USA. RP Hoogenboom, G, Natl Meteorol & Hydrol, BG-1784 Sofia, Bulgaria. AB It is expected that a change in climatic conditions due to global warming will directly impact agricultural production. Most climate change studies have been applied at very large scales, in which regions were represented by only one or two weather stations, which were mainly located at airports of major cities. The objective of this study was to determine the potential impact of climate change at a local level, taking into account weather data recorded at remote locations. Daily weather data for a 30-year period were obtained for more than 500 sites, representing the southeastern region of the USA. Climate change scenarios, using transient and equilibrium global circulation models (GCM), were defined, created and applied to the daily historical weather data. The modified temperature, precipitation and solar radiation databases corresponding to each of the climate change scenarios were used to run the CERES v.3.5 simulation model for maize and winter wheat and the CROPGRO v.3.5 model for soybean and peanut. The GCM scenarios projected a shorter duration of the crop-growing season. Under the current level of CO2, the GCM scenarios projected a decrease of crop yields in the 2020s. When the direct effects of CO2 were assumed in the study, the scenarios resulted in an increase in soybean and peanut yield. Under equilibrium 2 x CO2, the GCM climate change scenarios projected a decrease of maize and winter wheat yield. The indirect effects of climate change also tended to decrease soybean and peanut yield. However, when the direct effects of CO2 were included, most of the scenarios resulted in an increase in legume yields. Possible changes in sowing data, hybrids and cultivar selection, and fertilization were considered as adaptation options to mitigate the potential negative impact of potential warming. 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AB The interface between the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP) and discussions of policy alternatives for global environmental change has not yet been clearly articulated. As a possible framework for this needed debate, a natural scientist's view is presented of the different perspectives that appear to underlie conflicting agendas for mitigation, adaptation and response strategies. Based upon different ways individual humans respond to uncertainties in everyday life, these agendas have distinct but specific needs for scientific and technical information. IGBP can best serve decision makers by consciously catering to the highest priority requirements of each agenda, without attempting to pass judgement between them. The dialogue with social scientists and members of action groups necessary to clarify these information needs and expectations has barely begun. It can be anticipated that as this dialogue develops it will have a far-reaching influence on the future formulation of IGBP. CR 1987, COMMON FUTURE 1992, GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL, V2, P262 ORIORDAN T, 1991, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V1, P91 SCHWARZ M, 1990, DIVIDED STAND REDEFI NR 4 TC 2 J9 AMBIO BP 96 EP 97 PY 1994 PD FEB VL 23 IS 1 GA NA336 UT ISI:A1994NA33600017 ER PT J AU Day, JW Maltby, E Ibanez, C TI River basin management and delta sustainability: A commentary on the Ebro Delta and the Spanish National Hydrological Plan SO ECOLOGICAL ENGINEERING LA English DT Editorial Material C1 Louisiana State Univ, Sch Coast & Environm, Dept Oceanog & Coastal Sci, Baton Rouge, LA 70803 USA. Univ Liverpool, Inst Sustainable Water Integrated Management & Ec, Liverpool L69 3BX, Merseyside, England. Aquat Ecosyst Unit UEA IRTA, Sant Carels Rapita 03540, Catalonia, Spain. RP Day, JW, Louisiana State Univ, Sch Coast & Environm, Dept Oceanog & Coastal Sci, Baton Rouge, LA 70803 USA. 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RP Cohen, SJ, 2202 Main Mall, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z4, Canada. AB The consequences of climate change and sustainable development remaining as separate discourses are explored, both in general and in the Canadian context. One of these consequences is the difference in emission and economic development scenarios generated by the two groups. A second is that strategies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions are designed and assessed in a narrow technical context, divorced from the economic and social forces that underlie them. We identify the need for climate change and sustainable development to be represented in a more explicit manner in each other's research agendas, and for integrated assessment of climate change to incorporate alternative methodologies that complement global scale integrated assessment models. These methodologies should include greater involvement of stakeholders as partners with researchers in a shared learning experience. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. 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RP Overbeck, GE, Tech Univ Munich, Hochanger 6, D-85350 Freising Weihenstephan, Germany. AB Extensive parts of subtropical South America are covered by grassland vegetation, despite climatic conditions that allow for forest development, and fire may have been an important factor in the evolutionary history of these grasslands. In a regularly burned grassland area, situated in a forest-grassland-mosaic near Porto Alegre, RS, Brazil, life form spectrum and plant species' reaction to fire were examined, allowing for (1) a physiognomic description of the grassland, and (2) a functional classification of grassland species in relation to fire. Grassland sites with different time since the last fire occurred were compared between each other as well as to sites at the forest-grassland border. South Brazilian grassland is dominated by hemicryptophytic caespitose graminoids that resist fires, but contains a large number of geophytic or hemicryptophytic forbs, in general sprouting after fire. Shrubs, mostly sprouting species of the grassland community, were present with high cover values even in recently burned areas. In contrast to Central Brazilian Cerrado, trees were of little importance: most species found were forest pioneer species without the capacity to survive fires unless growing on sites protected from fire or at the forest border where burns stop. Non-sprouting species were of little importance in the community, and only two species found were therophytes. Lack of therophytes in South Brazilian grassland vegetation deserves further attention. (c) 2006 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved. 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Forest Res, No Res Stn, Roslin EH25 9SY, Midlothian, Scotland. RP Broadmeadow, MSJ, Forest Res, Alice Holt Lodge, Farnham GU10 4LH, Surrey, England. AB The most recent climate change predictions for the UK indicate a warming of between 2 and 5 degrees C by the end of this century, with drier summers and wetter winters also anticipated across the majority of the country. Changes are predicted to be more extreme in the southern half of the UK, where severe summer droughts will become commonplace. Although rising atmospheric CO2 levels are likely to increase productivity through 'fertilizing' photosynthesis, water limitation in southern England is likely to lead to an overall reduction in growth and increase in drought-induced mortality. Incorporation of, the climate change scenarios within the GIS model Ecological Site Classification indicates that in isolation, the effects of climate change will result in significant changes in species suitability. Under current definitions the majority of native broadleaf species are predicted to become unsuitable for commercial timber production in southern England. Genetic variability in local native populations may enable a degree of adaptation. Existing trials of ash (Fraxinus excelsior L.) suggest that the best performing provenances are those from regions with a climate similar to that of the trial site. The selection of a provenance for climate change adaptation should be from a region with a current climate well matched to a planting site's predicted climate of the future. Climate matching analysis indicates that coastal areas of western France experience a climate similar to that predicted for southern England by 2050, while the more extreme scenarios predict climates better matched to the Mediterranean region at high elevation by the end of the century. The scale of climate change predictions indicates that, in southern England, native broadleaf species may be unsuitable for timber production on some soils. The planting of non-native species may need to be considered to maintain woodland cover and ensure a viable hardwood timber industry. 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RP Sinclair, AJ, Univ Manitoba, Nat Resources Inst, Winnipeg, MB R3T 2N2, Canada. AB This research investigates the livelihood systems of two mountain villages in the northwest Himalaya, focussing or? household strategies of diversification as a means of maintaining livelihood security Field research was carried out with women of different age and caste from 32 households. Eight strategies were found to be of particular importance: (1) the diversification of activities and household inputs, (2) the maintenance of crop biodiversity and landscape diversity in the agricultural system, (3) the increased negotiations with the market, (4) the reliance on agricultural wage labour (5) the building up and drawing down of household inventories, (6) the reliance on common property resources, (7) the development of social networks, and (8) the formation of community groups. Policy for sustainable livelihoods in mountain ecosystems must be firmly rooted in an understanding of these complex strategies and the knowledge of women's own efforts to ensure that their households are secure and resilient. CR *CWD, 1987, UNU WORKSH COMP STUD *INT CTR INT MOUNT, 1988, INT WORKSH WOM DEV M ACHARYA S, 1985, WOMENS WORK FAMILY S AGARWAL B, 1988, POVERTY STRUCTURES P, P83 AGARWAL B, 1990, J PEA