FN ISI Export Format VR 1.0 MT MC ER PT J AU Ramos-Mane, C TI Vulnerability and adaptation to climate change in Latin America - Foreword SO CLIMATE RESEARCH LA English DT Editorial Material C1 Comis Nacl Cambio Global, Montevideo 11100, Uruguay. RP Ramos-Mane, C, Comis Nacl Cambio Global, Ciudadela 1414,Piso 6, Montevideo 11100, Uruguay. NR 0 TC 0 J9 CLIMATE RES BP U6 EP U6 PY 1997 PD DEC 29 VL 9 IS 1-2 GA ZD200 UT ISI:000072661400001 ER PT J AU King, D TI Climate change: the science and the policy SO JOURNAL OF APPLIED ECOLOGY LA English DT Editorial Material C1 Off Sci & Technol, London SW1 0ET, England. RP King, D, Off Sci & Technol, 1 Victoria St, London SW1 0ET, England. AB Globally we face serious challenges from the effects of climate change. The causal link between global warming and increased greenhouse gas emissions is well established. Carbon dioxide levels are at a higher level than at any time in the past 750 000 years at least, and it is too late to stop further warming and consequent impacts on UK and global societies. Here I summarize the latest scientific evidence for anthropogenic global warming and outline strategies for adapting to its impacts and mitigating the effects in the longer term. 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A response to Epstein and McCarthy SO BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY LA English DT Editorial Material C1 Univ Colorado, CIRES, Boulder, CO 80309 USA. OECD, Environm Directorate, Paris, France. Vrije Univ Amsterdam, Inst Environm Studies, Fac Earth & Life Sci, NL-1081 HV Amsterdam, Netherlands. Univ Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada. Univ Illinois, Champaign, IL 61820 USA. NCAR, Environm & Societal Impacts Grp, Boulder, CO USA. Atmospher Policy Program, AMS, Washington, DC USA. Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res, Potsdam, Germany. Illinois State Water Survey, Ctr Atmospher Sci, Champaign, IL 61820 USA. Univ Colorado, Dept Sociol, Boulder, CO 80309 USA. Arizona State Univ, Tempe, AZ USA. Univ E Anglia, Sch Environm Sci, Tyndall Ctr Climate Change Res, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. Zeppelin Univ, Friedrichshafen, Germany. GKSS Forschungszentrum Geesthacht GmbH, Inst Coastal Res, Geesthacht, Germany. RP Pielke, RA, Univ Colorado, CIRES, Boulder, CO 80309 USA. CR *HARV MED SCH, 2004, EXP WARN GLOB WARM L *INT FED RED CROSS, 2004, WORLD DIS REP 2004 ADGER WN, 2003, PROGR DEV STUDIES, V3, P179 ALLEY RB, 2003, SCIENCE, V299, P2005 CHANGNON SA, 1997, B AM METEOROL SOC, V78, P425 CHANGNON SA, 2000, B AM METEOROL SOC, V81, P437 CHANGNON SD, 2003, B AM METEOROL SOC, V84, P1231 EASTERLING DR, 2000, SCIENCE, V289, P2068 EPSTEIN PR, 2004, B AM METEOROL SOC, V85, P1863 GLANTZ MH, 2003, CLIMATE AFFAIRS PRIM HOUGHTON JT, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 KUNKEL KE, 1999, B AM METEOROL SOC, V80, P1077 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 MILETI DS, 1999, DISASTERS DESIGN PIELKE RA, 1998, WEATHER FORECAST 2, V13, P621 PIELKE RA, 2000, J CLIMATE, V13, P3625 RAGHAVAN S, 2003, B AM METEOROL SOC, V84, P635 SAREWITZ D, 2005, NEW REPUBLIC 0106 SMIT B, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P223 TIERNEY K, 2001, FACING UNEXPECTED DI VONSTORCH H, 2005, SPIEGEL 0124 NR 21 TC 2 J9 BULL AMER METEOROL SOC BP 1481 EP 1483 PY 2005 PD OCT VL 86 IS 10 GA 977GD UT ISI:000232790200024 ER PT J AU Wright, EL Erickson, JD TI Incorporating catastrophes into integrated assessment: Science, impacts, and adaptation SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Review C1 US EPA, Natl Risk Management Res Lab, Res Triangle Pk, NC 27711 USA. Univ Vermont, Sch Nat Resources, Aiken Ctr 344, Burlington, VT 05405 USA. RP Wright, EL, US EPA, Natl Risk Management Res Lab, Mail Drop E-305-02, Res Triangle Pk, NC 27711 USA. AB Incorporating potential catastrophic consequences into integrated assessment models of climate change has been a top priority of policymakers and modelers alike. We review the current state of scientific understanding regarding three frequently mentioned geophysical catastrophes, with a view toward their implications for integrated assessment modeling. This review finds inadequacies in widespread model assumptions regarding the nature of catastrophes themselves and climate change impacts more generally. The possibility of greatly postponed consequences from near- and medium-term actions suggests that standard discounting practices are inappropriate for the analysis of climate catastrophe. Careful consideration of paleoclimate and geophysical modeling evidence regarding the possibility of changes in ocean circulation suggests a reframing of the source of climate change damages in economic models, placing changes in climate predictability, rather than gradual changes in mean values, at the focus of economic damage assessments. The implications of decreases in predictability for the modeling of adaptation are further discussed. 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Univ Alaska, Inst Arctic Biol, Fairbanks, AK 99775 USA. Univ Alaska, Agr & Forestry Expt Stn, Fairbanks, AK 99775 USA. RP Grunzweig, JM, Weizmann Inst Sci, Dept Environm Sci & Energy Res, IL-76100 Rehovot, Israel. AB Climate warming is most pronounced at high latitudes, which could result in the intensification of the extensively cultivated areas in the boreal zone and could further enhance rates of forest clearing in the coming decades. Using paired forest-field sampling and a chronosequence approach, we investigated the effect of conversion of boreal forest to agriculture on carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) dynamics in interior Alaska. Chronosequences showed large soil C losses during the first two decades following deforestation, with mean C stocks in agricultural soils being 44% or 8.3 kg m(-2) lower than C stocks in original forest soils. This suggests that soil C losses from land-use change in the boreal region may be greater than those in other biomes. Analyses of changes in stable C isotopes and in quality of soil organic matter showed that organic C was lost from soils by combustion of cleared forest material, decomposition of organic matter and possibly erosion. Chronosequences indicated an increase in C storage during later decades after forest clearing, with 60-year-old grassland showing net ecosystem C gain of 2.1 kg m(-2) over the original forest. This increase in C stock resulted probably from a combination of large C inputs from belowground biomass and low C losses due to a small original forest soil C stock and low tillage frequency. Reductions in soil N stocks caused by land-use change were smaller than reductions in C stocks (34% or 0.31 kg m(-2)), resulting in lower C/N ratios in field compared with forest mineral soils, despite the occasional incorporation of high-C forest-floor material into field soils. Carbon mineralization per unit of mineralized N was considerably higher in forests than in fields, which could indicate that decomposition rates are more sensitive in forest soils than in field soils to inorganic N addition (e.g. by increased N deposition from the atmosphere). If forest conversion to agriculture becomes more widespread in the boreal region, the resulting C losses (51% or 11.2 kg m(-2) at the ecosystem level in this study) will induce a positive feedback to climatic warming and additional land-use change. However, by selecting relatively C-poor soils and by implementing management practices that preserve C, losses of C from soils can be reduced. 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RP Pyke, CR, Natl Ctr Ecol Anal & Synth, 735 State St,Suite 300, Santa Barbara, CA 93101 USA. AB Land use and land cover interact with atmospheric conditions to determine current climate conditions, as well, as the impact of climate change and environmental variability on ecological systems. Such interactions are ubiquitous, yet changes in LULC are generally made without regard to their biophysical implications. This review considers the potential for LULC to compound, confound, or even contradict changes expected from climate change alone. These properties give LULC the potential to be used as powerful tools capable of modifying local climate and contributing significantly to the net impact of climate change. Management practices based modifications of LULC patterns and processes could be applied strategically to increase the resilience of vulnerable ecological systems and facilitate climate adaptation. These interventions build on the traditional competencies of land management and land protection organizations and suggest that these institutions have a central role in determining the ecological impact of climate change and the development of strategies for adaptation. The practical limits to the use of LULC-based tools also suggest important inflection points between manageable and dangerous levels of climate change. 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RP Naess, LO, CICERO, POB 1129 Blindern, NO-0318 Oslo, Norway. AB The article examines the role institutions play in climate adaptation in Norway. Using examples from two municipalities in the context of institutional responses to floods, we find, first, that the institutional framework for flood management in Norway gives weak incentives for proactive local flood management. Second, when strong local political and economic interests coincide with national level willingness to pay and provide support, measures are often carried out rapidly at the expense of weaker environmental interests. Third, we find that new perspectives on flood management are more apparent at the national than the municipal level, as new perspectives are filtered by local power structures. The findings have important implications for vulnerability and adaptation to climate change in terms of policy options and the local level as the optimal level for adaptation. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *DSB, 2003, HVA LAERT VI FLOMM 1 *GOV NORW, 1995, 37 GOV NORW *GOV NORW, 1996, 42 GOV NORW *HEINZ CTR, 2002, HUM LINKS COAST DIS *MIN ENV MIN LOC G, 1997, T597 MIN ENV MIN LOC *NIVA, 1996, FLOMM OSTL VAR 1995 *NOU, 1996, TILT MOT FLOM *NVE, 1999, RETN AR SIKR FLOM OM AALL C, 2003, 32003 W NORW RES I ADGER WN, 2000, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V90, P738 ADGER WN, 2000, PROG HUM GEOG, V24, P347 BACHRACH P, 1962, AM POLIT SCI REV, V56, P947 BAKKER K, 1999, 3 SIRCH U OXF ENV CH BERKES F, 1998, LINKING SOCIAL ECOLO, V1, P1 BERKES F, 2002, DRAMA COMMONS BJORNAES T, 2001, LOKALE MILJO BAEREKR BLAIKIE PM, 1994, RISK NATURAL HAZARDS, V1, P1 BRAENNE J, 1995, BEFARING RADGIVNING BROWN JD, 2002, T I BRIT GEOGR, V27, P412 BURTON I, 2002, CLIM POLICY, V2, P145 CASH DW, 2000, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V10, P109 CUTTER SL, 1993, LIVING RISK CUTTER SL, 2003, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V93, P1 DAHL RA, 1961, WHO GOVERNS DEMOCRAC EIKENAES O, 2000, FLOMMEN KOMMER EIKENAES O, 2000, LEVE MED FLAUM FLAA P, 1985, INNFORING ORGANISASJ GLANTZ M, 1989, FORECASTING ANALOGY HINDAR K, 1996, EFFEKTER FLOMMEN 199 LISO KR, 2003, BUILD RES INF, V31, P200 LIVERMAN DM, 2002, CLIMATE RES, V21, P199 LUKES S, 1974, POWER RADICAL VIEW LUNDQUIST D, 1996, FLOMMEN 1995 GLOMM L MILLER KA, 1997, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V35, P157 MORROW BH, 1999, DISASTERS, V24, P1 NAESS LO, IN PRESS I ADAPTATIO NYE JS, 1987, INT ORGAN, V41, P371 OBRIEN KL, 2004, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V64, P193 OLSSON P, 2001, ECOSYSTEMS, V4, P85 OYGARDEN L, 1996, FLOMMEN 1995 SKADER QUARANTELLI EL, 1987, INT J MASS EMERGENCI, V5, P7 RATTSO J, 2003, FISCAL DECENTRALIZAT SKURDAL J, 2000, GLOMMA LAAGEN RIVER SMIT B, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, CH18 TOL RSJ, 2003, RISK ANAL, V23, P575 UNDERDAL A, 1998, EUR J INT RELAT, V4, P5 VAYDA AP, 1999, HUM ECOL, V27, P167 WILBANKS TJ, 1999, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V43, P601 WILBANKS TJ, 2002, INTEGRATED ASSESSMEN, V3, P100 YIN R, 1994, CASE STUDY RES DESIG YOHE GW, 2002, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V12, P25 YOUNG O, 1998, 9 IHDP NR 52 TC 6 J9 GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANGE BP 125 EP 138 PY 2005 PD JUL VL 15 IS 2 GA 931VR UT ISI:000229514100006 ER PT J AU Wilderer, PA TI Applying sustainable water management concepts in rural and urban areas: some thoughts about reasons, means and needs SO WATER SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY LA English DT Article C1 Tech Univ Munich, Inst Water Qual Control & Waste Management, D-85758 Garching, Germany. RP Wilderer, PA, Tech Univ Munich, Inst Water Qual Control & Waste Management, Coulombwall, D-85758 Garching, Germany. AB Serving the world population with adequate drinking water and sanitation is an important prerequisite, not only to hygienic safety, but to prosperity and political stability as well, and will foster the adaptive capacity of the societies in the developing countries and beyond. To avoid hygienic and political disasters impacting the world economy, investment in water supply and sanitation must urgently be made. Whether the classical system of urban water supply and sanitation is appropriate to satisfy the needs of the developing world, however, and whether this system meets the general criteria of sustainability is questionable. The costs and the time needed for installation of sewers and wastewater treatment plants are tremendous. In water shortage areas, the amount of tap water required to transport pollutants to the treatment plant is hardly affordable. Recovery and re-introduction of valuable substances, including water, into the urban cycle of materials is impossible because of mixing and dilution effects inherent in the system. Decentralized water and wastewater management should be seriously taken into account as an alternative. Source separation of specific fractions of domestic and industrial wastewater, separate treatment of these fractions and recovery of water and raw materials including fertilizer and energy are the main characteristics of modern high-tech on-site treatment/reuse systems. Mass production of the key components of the system could reduce the costs of the treatment units to a reasonable level. On-site units could be installed independently of the development stage of the urban sewer system. In conjunction with building new housing complexes a stepwise improvement of the hygienic situation in urban and peri-urban areas could be achieved, therefore. Remote control of the satellite systems using modern telecommunication methods would allow reliable operation, and comfort for the users. Intensive research is required, however, to develop this system and bring it to a standard allowing efficient application worldwide. CR *WORLD COMM ENV DE, 1987, OUR COMM FUT, P211 ATHANASIADIS K, 2003, IN PRESS WAT SCI TEC COSGROVE WJ, 2000, WORLD WATER VISION M DALHOFF R, 2003, P IWA REG C WAT KEY DALHOFF R, 2003, WATER SCI TECHNOL, V48, P163 HUESEMANN MH, 2001, ECOL ECON, V37, P271 LARSEN T, 1996, WAT SCI TECH, V35, P3 LARSEN TA, 1996, WATER SCI TECHNOL, V34, P87 LARSEN TA, 2001, ENVIRON SCI TECHNOL, V35, A192 OTTERPOHL R, 1997, WATER SCI TECHNOL, V35, P121 VANHUIZEN D, 1997, WATER ENV FEDERATION, P49 VONCARLOWITZ HC, 2000, ANWEISUNG WILDEN BAU, V135 WEBER WJ, 2002, WATER SCI TECHNOL, V46, P241 WILDERER PA, 2000, WATER SCI TECHNOL, V41, P1 WILDERER PA, 2001, SQUENCING BATCH REAC WILDERER PA, 2002, DANUBE RIVER BASIN L, V34, P229 ZEEMAN G, 2000, WATER SCI TECHNOL, V41, P9 NR 17 TC 0 J9 WATER SCI TECHNOL BP 8 EP 16 PY 2004 VL 49 IS 7 GA 834HB UT ISI:000222401100008 ER PT J AU Butzer, KW TI Environmental history in the Mediterranean world: cross-disciplinary investigation of cause-and-effect for degradation and soil erosion SO JOURNAL OF ARCHAEOLOGICAL SCIENCE LA English DT Article C1 Univ Texas, Dept Geog & Environm, Austin, TX 78712 USA. RP Butzer, KW, Univ Texas, Dept Geog & Environm, Austin, TX 78712 USA. AB Environmental history is a multidisciplinary enterprise united by shared interests in ecological change and the complex interactions between people and the environment. Its practitioners include expertise in the natural sciences, ill history or archaeology, or in political ecology and related social sciences; but there is no agreement on a common agenda and limited success in bridging methodological and epistemological divisions that impede integrative and interdisciplinary research. World-systems history and environmental history also have overlapping interests in long-term change and matters of sustainability. The Mediterranean world sustained agricultural lifeways across some 8000 years, yet its environment has repeatedly been described as degraded, suggesting conceptual confusion between transformation and destruction. This paper is didactic in purpose and uses landscape histories for the Peloponnese and eastern Spain to show that the impact of recurrent, excessive precipitation events and of reduced quality of land cover are difficult to unravel, because they commonly appear to work in tandem. As a result (a) environmental change cannot be assumed or "predicted", but must be studied inductively by experts with science skills, and (b) cause-and-effect relationships demand an understanding of ecological behavior, for which humanistic insights are indispensable. Social science models highlight systemic relationships from socioeconomic and structural perspectives., but are less suited to deal with the complexity of environmental change or the contingencies exemplified by human resilience. Near Eastern.. Greek and Roman agronomic writings offer elite "voices" that speak to cumulative technological change, scientific understanding, and the context of intensification. Rural voices can be heard through ethnography, and in eastern Spain are extended into the past by archaeology and archival research. In the absence of structural constraints, they reveal collective decision-making with respect to a shifting repertoire of agricultural strategies that take into account market opportunities, demographic growth, finite resources and environmental problems. Such adaptability spells resilience, and "good farming" is culturally embedded as a civic responsibility, both in the ethnographic present and in the older, elite agronomic writings. But if the "moral economy" erodes in the wake of food stress, tax extortion, instability, insecurity, or ideological oppression, there is little incentive to pursue long-term strategies, so that behavior focuses on short-term survival. The context for this dialectic of poor versus good ecological management may be structural, but cause-and-effect in the traditional Mediterranean world ultimately depended on ecological and human resilience. Long-term sustainability is similarly non-predictive. It depends on people, rather than social theory. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 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AB Several studies have estimated the possible impacts and adjustments in U.S. agriculture resulting from a future change in climate. This paper examines how these adjustments and shifting climate conditions could affect the nation's crop weather insurance industry, including its ability to provide adequate coverage. Shifts in crop varieties, the extension of new crops into new areas, and changes in crop yields would all affect establishment of rates and many other industry practices, but we expect that these shifts could be adjusted to using existing techniques and field research. What will be most difficult to react to will be the shifting weather risk, such as ever-changing storm frequencies or intensities. Current practices of rate development and regulation of insurance rates are based on historical data, not on anticipation of future weather shifts. Outcomes seen during such climate transition periods with their inherent uncertainty include a reduced industry zeal for accepting risk. This would likely include declination of coverage, reduced coverage per unit area, and lower yield guarantees. These acts would lead to more self-insurance by crop producers, which would involve more crop diversification and greater dispersion of crops over an area. CR 1990, POLICYMAKERS SUMMARY BOWMAN JA, 1987, 109 ILL STAT WAT SUR CHANGNON SA, 1973, W GEOGRAPHICAL SERIE, P134 CHANGNON SA, 1990, J CLIMATE, V3, P568 CHANGNON SA, 1992, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V14, P191 COGAN DG, 1992, GREENHOUSE GAMBIT BU EASTERLING WE, 1990, FARM LEVEL ADJUSTMEN EASTERLING WE, 1992, ADAPTING US AGR CLIM FLORESMENDOZA FJ, 1989, INFLUENCE CLIMATE CH FRIEDMAN DG, 1988, P N AM C PREP CLIM C, P389 KARL TR, 1991, SCIENCE, V251, P1058 PEART RM, 1989, US EPA PM221 PETERSEN DF, 1990, IRRIGATION CLIMATE C, P243 RITCHIE JT, 1989, US EPA PM221 ROSENBERG NJ, 1991, PROCESSES IDENTIFYIN ROSENBERG NJ, 1992, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V21, P385 NR 16 TC 6 J9 BULL AMER METEOROL SOC BP 1703 EP 1708 PY 1993 PD SEP VL 74 IS 9 GA LY463 UT ISI:A1993LY46300004 ER PT J AU WILKINSON, TJ TI THE STRUCTURE AND DYNAMICS OF DRY-FARMING STATES IN UPPER MESOPOTAMIA SO CURRENT ANTHROPOLOGY LA English DT Review RP WILKINSON, TJ, UNIV CHICAGO,INST ORIENTAL,1155 E 58TH ST,CHICAGO,IL 60637. AB A model describing the layout of Early Bronze Age Mesopotamian states is synthesized using a range of off-site and on-site data from Syria, Iraq, and Turkey. These allow the description of the basic settlement patterns, land use, and exchange systems of an early state system. The hypothesis is tested that Bronze Age settlements in this zone of rain-fed farming tended not to exceed 100 hectares, an area which was capable of accommodating between 10,000 and 20,000 people. Detailed off-site surveys and landscape archaeology suggest that these settlements were provisioned by intensively farmed zones of cultivation that surrounded the central settlement and by tributary secondary or satellite communities. This main production zone was just capable of supporting the population of the prime site, but the constraint of labour and the frictional effect of distance meant that food produced farther away than some 10-15 km made only a minor contribution to the main settlement. 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WILKINSON TJ, 1990, ORIENTAL I PUBLICATI, V109 WILKINSON TJ, 1993, ANTIQUITY, V67, P548 WRIGHT HE, 1993, CURR ANTHROPOL, V34, P458 WRIGHT HT, 1969, 38 U MICH MUS ANTHR YOFFEE N, 1979, AM ANTIQUITY, V44, P5 YOFFEE N, 1988, COLLAPSE ANCIENT STA, P44 ZACCAGNINI C, 1975, ORIENS ANTIQUUS, V14, P181 ZEDER MA, 1991, FEEDING CITIES SPECI ZEDER MA, 1994, AM ANTHROPOL, V96, P97 ZOHARY D, 1969, DOMESTICATION EXPLOI, P47 NR 211 TC 16 J9 CURR ANTHROPOL BP 483 EP 520 PY 1994 PD DEC VL 35 IS 5 GA PR301 UT ISI:A1994PR30100001 ER PT J AU YARNAL, B TI AGRICULTURAL DECOLLECTIVIZATION AND VULNERABILITY TO ENVIRONMENTAL-CHANGE - A BULGARIAN CASE-STUDY SO GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS LA English DT Article RP YARNAL, B, PENN STATE UNIV,CTR EARTH SYST SCI,302 WALKER BLDG,UNIVERSITY PK,PA 16802. AB Is the transformation from Communism to a more market-based society making Bulgarians - and particularly farmers more vulnerable to environmental change? Intensive, open-ended interviews suggest that government policies, new privatization laws and the nation's economic crisis are decreasing farmers' flexibility and removing social safety nets. Yet generalizations are difficult because implementation of the decollectivization process is different at each cooperative farm, thus creating varying levels of vulnerability. Easing the crisis is the tradition of family-based, small-plot gardening, which appears to ensure sufficient food for most Bulgarians. 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RP Mendelsohn, R, Yale Univ, Sch Forestry & Environm Studies, 360 Prospect St, New Haven, CT 06511 USA. AB Firms and individuals will likely engage in substantial private adaptation with respect to climate change in such sectors as farming, energy, timber, and recreation because it is in their interest to do so. The shared benefit nature of joint adaptation, however, will cause individuals to underprovide joint adaptation in such areas as water control, sea walls, and ecological management. Governments need to start thinking about joint adaptation, being careful to design efficient responses which treat climate change problems as they arise. CR ADAMS R, 1998, EC IMPACT CLIMATE CH ARROW K, 1963, SOCIAL CHOICE INDIVI BRUCE J, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995 CARTER T, 1994, IPCC TECHNICAL GUIDE EASTERLING WE, 1993, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V24, P23 ESTY DC, 1998, POLICY SCI, V31, P225 FANKHAUSER S, 1999, ECOL ECON, V30, P67 GOKLANY IM, 1995, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V30, P427 HOUGHTON J, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995 KAISER HM, 1993, AM J AGR ECON, V75, P387 KUMAR K, 1998, EC IMPACT CLIMATE CH KUMAR K, 1998, MEASURING IMPACT CLI MELILLO JM, 1995, GLOBAL BIOGEOCHEM CY, V9, P407 MENDELSOHN R, 1994, AM ECON REV, V84, P753 MENDELSOHN R, 1996, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V80, P55 MENDELSOHN R, 1997, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V37, P271 MORRISON W, 1998, EC IMPACT CLIMATE CH ROSENZWEIG C, 1994, NATURE, V367, P133 SAMUELSON PA, 1954, REV ECON STAT, V36, P387 SANGHI A, 1998, MEASURING IMPACT CLI SMITH JB, 1996, CLIMATE RES, V6, P193 TOL RSJ, 1998, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V8, P109 WATSON RT, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, V1, P1 YOHE GW, 1996, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V32, P387 NR 24 TC 3 J9 CLIMATIC CHANGE BP 583 EP 600 PY 2000 PD JUN VL 45 IS 3-4 GA 324XH UT ISI:000087646800014 ER PT J AU Easterling, WE TI Adapting North American agriculture to climate change in review SO AGRICULTURAL AND FOREST METEOROLOGY LA English DT Article RP Easterling, WE, UNIV NEBRASKA,DEPT AGR METEOROL,POB 830725,LINCOLN,NE 68583. AB The adaptability of North American agriculture to climate change is assessed through a review of current literature. A baseline of North American agriculture without climate change suggests that farming faces serious challenges in the future (e.g. declining domestic demand, loss of comparative advantage, rising environmental costs). Climate change adjustments at the farm-level and in government policy, including international trade policy, are inventoried from the literature. The adaptive potential of agriculture is demonstrated historically with situations that are analogous to climate change, including the translocation of crops across natural climate gradients, the rapid introduction of new crops such as soybeans in the US and canola in Canada, and resource substitutions prompted by changes in prices of production inputs. A wide selection of modeling studies is reviewed which, in net, suggests several agronomic and economic adaptation strategies that are available to agriculture. Agronomic strategies include changes in crop varieties and species, timing of operations, and land management including irrigation. Economic strategies include investment in new technologies, infrastructure and labor, and shifts in international trade. Overall, such agronomic strategies were found to offset either partially or completely the loss of productivity caused by climate change. Economic adaptations were found to render the agricultural costs of climate change small by comparison with the overall expansion of agricultural production. New avenues of adaptive research are recommended including the formalization of the incorporation of adaptation strategies into modeling, linkage of adaptation to the terrestrial carbon cycle, anticipation of future technologies, attention to scaling from in situ modeling to the landscape scale, expansion of data sets and the measurement and modeling of unpriced costs. The final assessment is that climate change should not pose an insurmountable obstacle to North American agriculture. The portfolio of assets needed to adapt is large in terms of land, water, energy, genetic diversity, physical intrastructure and human resources, research capacity and information systems, and political institutions and world trade-the research reviewed here gives ample evidence of the ability of agriculture to utilize such assets. In conclusion, the apparent efficiency with which North American agriculture may adapt to climate changes provides little inducement for diverting agricultural adaptation resources to efforts to slow or halt the climate changes. CR *CAST, 1992, 119 CAST US AGR GLOB *HIGH PLAINS ASS, 1982, C BRIEF 6 STAT HIGH *NAT RES COUNC, 1991, POL IMPL GREENH WARM *OFF TECHN ASS, 1992, NEW TECHN ER AM AGR *USDA, 1990, MISCELLANEOUS PUBLIC, V1482 ADAMS R, 1989, POTENTIAL EFFECTS GL, V1, P4 ALLEN R, 1989, POTENTIAL EFFECTS GL, V1, P6 ANTLE JM, 1996, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V80, P67 AUSUBEL JH, 1980, CLIMATIC CONSTAINTS BACH W, 1979, ENVIRON INT, V2, P215 BARKEMA A, 1988, EC REV FED RESERVE B, P3 BOCKSTADTER TL, 1989, IRRIGATION MANAGEMEN BOGGESS WG, 1985, S J AGR EC, V17, P105 BRIGGLE LW, 1987, WHEAT WHEAT IMPROVEM, P1 BUTTLER JW, 1989, GAPS GEN PURPOSE SIM COX TS, 1986, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V83, P5583 CROSSON PR, 1989, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V15, P51 CROSSON PR, 1989, GREENHOUSE WARMING A, P69 CROSSON PR, 1991, AGR PRODUCTION RESOU CULOTTA E, 1995, SCIENCE, V268, P654 DALRYMPLE DG, 1988, AGR HIST, V62, P20 DARMSTADTER J, 1991, PROCESSES IDENTIFYIN DRABENSTOTT M, 1992, EC REV FED RESERVE B, V77, P5 DUNCAN MR, 1989, EC REV FED RESERVE B, P3 EASTERLING WE, 1989, GREENHOUSE WARMING A, P91 EASTERLING WE, 1992, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V59, P3 EASTERLING WE, 1993, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V24, P23 FISCHER G, 1988, LINKED NATL MODELS T FORNARI HD, 1979, AGR HIST, V53, P245 FREDERICK KD, 1991, TR052F US DEP EN GARDNER BL, 1984, RISK MANAGEMENT AGR, P231 GIORGI F, 1991, REV GEOPHYS, V29, P191 GLANTZ MH, 1988, SOC RESPONSES REGION, P113 GLANTZ MH, 1988, SOCIETAL RESPONSES R GRAEDAL TE, 1994, GLOBAL BIOGEOCHEM CY, V7, P1 GUDGER M, 1991, RISK AGR, P143 HANSEN J, 1988, J GEOPHYS RES, V93, P9341 HART JF, 1986, GEOGR REV, V76, P51 HAYAMI Y, 1985, AGR DEV INT PERSPECT HEADY EO, 1984, ENERG AGR, P10 HOUGHTON JT, 1990, CLIMATE CHANGE IPCC HOUGHTON RA, 1994, BIOSCIENCE, V44, P305 JONES CA, 1986, CERES MAIZE SIMULATI JONES J, 1988, SOYGRO V5 41 SOYBEAN KAISER HM, 1993, AM J AGR ECON, V75, P387 KANE SM, 1992, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V21, P17 KANE SM, 1992, EC ISSUES GLOBAL CLI, P117 KATES RW, 1985, CLIMATE IMPACT ASSES, P3 KELLER LF, 1981, WATER RESOURCES B, V17, P647 KHUSH GS, 1993, INT CROP SCI, V1, P189 KIMBALL BA, 1990, AM SOC AGRONOMY SPEC, V53 KROMM DE, 1986, WATER RESOUR BULL, V22, P791 LAWLOR DW, 1991, PLANT CELL ENVIRON, V14, P807 LEHE JM, 1986, P ASS GROUND WAT SCI, P410 LEWANDROWSKI JK, 1992, EC ISSUES GLOBAL CLI, P132 MAJOR DJ, 1991, J PROD AGRIC, V4, P606 MANABE S, 1987, J ATMOS SCI, V44, P1211 MCKENNEY MS, 1992, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V59, P103 MEARNS LO, 1984, J CLIM APPL METEOROL, V23, P1601 MENDELSOHN R, 1994, AM ECON REV, V84, P753 MENDELSOHN R, 1994, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V28, P15 MENDELSOHN R, 1996, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V80, P55 NELLIS MD, 1987, DEMANDS RURAL LAND P, P71 NEWMAN JE, 1982, ENV SOCIAL CONSEQUEN, V2 NORDHAUS WD, 1992, SCIENCE, V258, P1315 PARRY ML, 1988, IMPACT CLIMATIC VARI PHIPPS TT, 1986, AGR ENV RESOURCES FU RIEBSAME WE, 1988, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V13, P69 RIEBSAME WE, 1991, DROUGHT NATURAL RESO RIEBSAME WE, 1991, GREAT PLAINS RES, V1, P133 RITCHIE JT, 1989, POTENTIAL EFFECTS GL, V1 ROBINSON JB, 1985, CLIMATE IMPACT ASSES, P469 ROSENBERG NJ, 1982, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V4, P239 ROSENBERG NJ, 1986, FUTURE N AM GRANARY, P93 ROSENBERG NJ, 1991, ENVIRON CONSERV, V18, P313 ROSENBERG NJ, 1992, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V21, P385 ROSENBERG NJ, 1993, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V24, P7 ROSENZWEIG C, 1989, POTENTIAL EFFECTS GL, V1 ROSENZWEIG C, 1994, NATURE, V367, P133 SAVDIE I, 1991, CAN J PLANT SCI, V71, P21 SCHELLING T, 1983, CHANGING CLIMATE REP SCHLESINGER M, 1988, SEASONAL CLIMATE CHA SCHNEIDER SH, 1989, GREENHOUSE WARMING A, P7 SMIT B, 1993, 19 U GUELPH DEP GEOG SMITH JB, 1989, POTENTIAL EFFECTS GL SONKA ST, 1984, RISK MANAGEMENT AGR, P95 STEPLETON BM, 1986, NAT RESOUR J, V26, P871 STEWART JI, 1990, RISK AGR, P17 SUPALLA R, 1982, J SOIL WATER CONSERV, V37, P310 THOMPSON LM, 1969, J SOIL WATER CONSERV, V24, P219 TYRCHIEWICZ EU, 1986, FUTURE N AM GRANARY, P28 WARRICK RA, 1980, CLIMATIC CONSTRAINTS WILHITE DA, 1988, SOCIETAL RESPONSES R, P353 WILLIAMS JR, 1984, T ASAE, V27, P129 YOHE GW, 1993, ASSESSING SURPRISE N, P109 NR 95 TC 18 J9 AGR FOREST METEOROL BP 1 EP 53 PY 1996 PD JUN VL 80 IS 1 GA UV519 UT ISI:A1996UV51900002 ER PT J AU Pittock, AB Jones, RN TI Adaptation to what and why? SO ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING AND ASSESSMENT LA English DT Article C1 CSIRO, Climate Impacts Grp, Aspendale, Vic 3195, Australia. RP Pittock, AB, CSIRO, Climate Impacts Grp, PB 1, Aspendale, Vic 3195, Australia. AB Adaptation in response to anthropogenic climate change seeks to maintain viability by maximising benefits and minimising losses. It is necessary because some climatic change is now inevitable, despite the international focus on mitigation measures. Indeed, the measures agreed at Kyoto would by themselves result in only a small reduction in the climate changes to be expected over the next century. Discussion of the expected changes and possible impacts leads to the following conclusions regarding climate change scenarios in relation to impacts and adaptation: Climate change in the foreseeable future will not be some new stable "equilibrium" climate, but rather an ongoing "transient" process; Climate change predictions relevant to impacts on most sectors and ecosystems are still highly uncertain; There is a need for a greater focus on developing countries and tropical regions, and on relevant key variables, including the magnitude and frequency of extreme events; The focus should shift from single predictions, or extreme ranges of uncertainty, to risk assessment; Thresholds critical to impacted sectors and ecosystems should be identified, and expressed as functions of climatic variables; Planned adaptations will be necessary to cope with multiple stresses, including those due to non-climatic changes; A major task of adaptation science is to identify the limits of adaptation, i.e., to identify "dangerous levels of greenhouse gases" beyond which adaptation becomes impractical or prohibitively expensive. 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Univ Kassel, Ctr Environm Syst Res, D-34109 Kassel, Germany. RP Lehner, B, World Wildlife Fund US, 1250 24th St NW, Washington, DC 20037 USA. AB Most studies on the impact of climate change on regional water resources focus on long-term average flows or mean water availability, and they rarely take the effects of altered human water use into account. When analyzing extreme events such as floods and droughts, the assessments are typically confined to smaller areas and case studies. At the same time it is acknowledged that climate change may severely alter the risk of hydrological extremes over large regional scales, and that human water use will put additional pressure on future water resources. In an attempt to bridge these various aspects, this paper presents a first-time continental, integrated analysis of possible impacts of global change (here defined as climate and water use change) on future flood and drought frequencies for the selected study area of Europe. The global integrated water model WaterGAP is evaluated regarding its capability to simulate high and low-flow regimes and is then applied to calculate relative changes in flood and drought frequencies. The results indicate large critical regions' for which significant changes in flood or drought risks are expected under the proposed global change scenarios. The regions most prone to a rise in flood frequencies are northern to northeastern Europe, while southern and southeastern Europe show significant increases in drought frequencies. In the critical regions, events with an intensity of today's 100-year floods and droughts may recur every 10-50 years by the 2070s. Though interim and preliminary, and despite the inherent uncertainties in the presented approach, the results underpin the importance of developing mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change impacts on a continental scale. CR *DVWK, 1998, WORK OUT DROUGHT MIT *EEA, 1999, 2 EUR ENV AG *EIA, 2001, INT EN ANN 2001 CARB *GRDC, 1999, LONG TERM MEAN MONTH *IPCC, 1992, CLIM CHANG 1992 S RE *IPCC, 2000, SPEC REP EM SCEN MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 *IPCC, 2001, CLIM CHANG 2001 SCI *WMO, 1994, 168 WORLD MET ORG ALCAMO J, 1998, GLOBALC HANGE SCENAR ALCAMO J, 2003, HYDROLOG SCI J, V48, P317 ALCAMO J, 2003, HYDROLOG SCI J, V48, P339 ARNELL NW, 1994, IAHS PUBL, V221, P179 ARNELL NW, 1999, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V9, P5 ARNELL NW, 2000, EF5VCT930293 U SOUTH ARNELL NW, 2000, EV5VCT940114 U SOUTH BERGKAMP G, 2003, CHANGE ADAPTATION WA BERGSTROM S, 2001, CLIMATE RES, V16, P101 BRADFORD RB, 2000, DROUGHT DROUGHT MITI, V14, P7 BURLANDO P, 2002, HYDROL PROCESS, V16, P1151 BURLANDO P, 2002, HYDROL PROCESS, V16, P1177 CARTER TR, 1994, IPCC TECHNICAL GUIDE CHIEW FHS, 2002, HYDROL PROCESS, V16, P1235 DEMUTH S, 2001, ENVCT970553 U FREIB DOLL P, 2002, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V54, P269 DOLL P, 2002, J HYDROL, V258, P214 DOLL P, 2002, P 3 INT C WAT RES EN, V1, P27 DOLL P, 2003, J HYDROL, V270, P105 DYCK S, 1995, GRUNDLAGEN HYDROLOGI FREI C, 1998, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V25, P1431 GENG S, 1986, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V36, P363 GORDON C, 2000, CLIM DYNAM, V16, P147 HAAN CT, 2002, STAT METHODS HYDROLO HENRI S, 2002, GENES IMMUN, V3, P1 HULME M, 1999, NATURE, V397, P688 HULME M, 2001, CLIMATE RES, V17, P145 JANSSEN PHM, 1995, ECOL MODEL, V83, P55 JONES JAA, 1996, REGIONAL HYDROLOGICA, P87 JONES JAA, 1997, GLOBAL HYDROLOGY PRO JONES JAA, 1999, HYDROLOG SCI J, V44, P541 JONES JAA, 2002, HYDROL PROCESS, V16, P1135 KARL TR, 1993, J CLIMATE, V6, P1481 KATZ RW, 1992, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V21, P289 KILSBY CG, 1999, EV5VCT940510, P113 LEHNE B, 2001, MODELLIERUNG MESO BI, P160 MAIDMENT DR, 1993, HDB HYDROLOGY MEARNS LO, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 MITCHELL TD, 1999, PROG PHYS GEOG, V23, P57 NEW M, 2000, J CLIMATE, V13, P2217 PARRY ML, 2000, EUROPE ACACIA PROJEC PILLING CG, 2002, HYDROL PROCESS, V16, P1201 PRUDHOMME C, 2002, HYDROL PROCESS, V16, P1137 ROCKNER E, 1999, J CLIMATE, V12, P3004 SMAKHTIN VU, 2001, J HYDROL, V240, P147 TALLAKSEN LM, 2000, DROUGHT DROUGHT MITI, V14, P103 TATE EL, 2000, DROUGHT DROUGHT MITI, V14, P23 VOSS R, 2002, INT J CLIMATOL, V22, P755 WATSON RT, 1998, REGIONAL IMPACTS CLI, V1, P1 WILBY RL, 1997, PROG PHYS GEOG, V21, P530 XU CY, 1999, PROG PHYS GEOG, V23, P229 NR 60 TC 0 J9 CLIMATIC CHANGE BP 273 EP 299 PY 2006 PD APR VL 75 IS 3 GA 046EC UT ISI:000237793200001 ER PT J AU Reed, MS Dougill, AJ TI Participatory selection process for indicators of rangeland condition in the Kalahari SO GEOGRAPHICAL JOURNAL LA English DT Article C1 Univ Leeds, Sch Environm, Leeds Environm & Dev Grp, Leeds LS2 9JT, W Yorkshire, England. RP Reed, MS, Univ Leeds, Sch Environm, Leeds Environm & Dev Grp, Leeds LS2 9JT, W Yorkshire, England. AB To develop indicator-based management tools that can facilitate sustainable natural resource management by non-specialists, meaningful participation of stakeholders is essential. A participatory framework is proposed for the identification, evaluation and selection of rangeland condition indicators. This framework is applied to the assessment of rangeland degradation processes and sustainable natural resource management with pastoralists in the southern Kalahari, Botswana. Farmer knowledge focused on vegetation and livestock, with soil, wild animal and socio-economic indicators playing a lesser role. Most were indicators of current rangeland condition; however 'early warning' indicators were also identified by some key informants. This demonstrates that some local knowledge is process-based. Such knowledge could be used to improve indicator-based management tools and extension advice on the livelihood adaptations necessary to prevent or reduce ecological change, capable of threatening livelihood sustainability. There is evidence that social background influences indicator use. Communal farmers rely most heavily on vegetation and livestock indicators, whilst syndicate and landowning pastoralists cite wild animal and soil-based indicators most frequently. These factors must be considered if indicator-based management tools are to meet the requirements of a diverse community. 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Ohio State Univ, Dept Agr Environm & Dev Econ, Columbus, OH 43210 USA. Ohio State Univ, Sch Nat Resources, Columbus, OH 43210 USA. Univ Arizona, Dept Geog & Reg Dev, Tucson, AZ 85721 USA. Michigan State Univ, Environm Sci & Policy Program, E Lansing, MI 48824 USA. Michigan State Univ, Dept CARRS, E Lansing, MI 48824 USA. RP Thompson, A, Ohio State Univ, Dept Polit Sci, 2120 Fyffe Rd, Columbus, OH 43210 USA. 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RP Morf, A, Univ Gothenburg, Human Ecol Sect, Box 700, SE-40530 Gothenburg, Sweden. AB This article analyses four main models of participation in Swedish natural resource management and assesses strengths and weaknesses of one model (participation in physical/spatial planning) based on empirical studies of coastal resource conflicts in two Swedish west coast municipalities. In comparison to other administrative and planning procedures, physical planning offers possibilities to coordinate land and water management across sectors and resources and to broaden stakeholder participation. Local influence on coastal management increases with participation beyond the statutory minimum requirements, although management frameworks and practice of participation need to be developed further. Besides educating professionals and experimenting with combinations of existing procedures, in the long run an adaptation of legislation to the requirements of integrated and sustainable coastal management will be necessary. CR *EUR COMM, 2002, PROP EUR PARL COUNC *MAR RES COMM DSH, 1989, COMP COAST WAT PLANN, P4 *NORCOAST, 1999, REV NAT REG PLANN PR *SOU, 1996, SUST DEV ARCH SWED *SOU, 2000, LIV ARCH EV REG ENV *SOU, 2002, CLEAR WAT REP SOU *SOU, 2003, SEA TIM NEW STRAT RE *SWED NAT BOARD HO, 1998, CIT PART MUN PLANN E ABRAHAMSON KV, 1990, COAST PLACE REASON P ALEXANDERSSON U, 1995, NEW TRACKS EXPERIENC ALFREDSSON B, 1997, SWEDISH PLANNING SUS, P11 AREN H, 1994, EVERYTHING POSSIBLE AREN H, 1996, KOSTER SUBURB PLACE BJUR H, 1985, PLANS REALITY BLOMQVIST A, 2003, WATERCOURSE GROUPS R CICINSAIN B, 1998, INTEGRATED COASTAL O CREIGHTON JL, 1998, 82R1 IWR CREIGHTON JL, 1998, 82R5 IWR DIETZ T, 2003, HUM ECOL REV, V10, P3 FRENCH P, 1997, COASTAL ESTUARINE MA GIPPERTH L, 2005, AMBIO, V35, P154 GLESBYGDSVERKET, 1997, STRAT ACT PROGR ARCH JOHANSSON M, 2001, ARENA SUSTAINABLE DE, P61 KAY R, 1999, COASTAL PLANNING MAN LARSSON G, 2000, 479TRITAFAT82 ROY TU LINDNER W, 1996, PLANUNG KOMMUNIKATIO, P181 MALBERT B, 1998, URBAN PLANNING PARTI MILLER T, 1988, THESIS ROYAL I TECHN MORF A, 1999, HUMAN ECOLOGY MORF A, 2003, PUBL PART PLANN FOR MORF A, 2005, LOC PART COAST MAN M OSTROM E, 1996, RIGHTS NATURE ECOLOG, P127 PIDO MD, 1992, ICLARM C P, V37, P133 PIRIZ L, 2004, 52640 SWED ENV PROT PRETTY J, 2002, AGR CULTURE RECONNEC PRETTY JN, 1995, WORLD DEV, V23, P1247 RENN O, 1995, FAIR COMPETENT CITIZ RONNBY A, 1995, LOCAL FORCE PEOPLE D SKOGLUND K, 1997, PLANNING LOCAL PERSP SUNDH K, 1995, SOCIAL MOBILIZATION WITTGREN HB, 2000, VASTRA REPORT NR 41 TC 0 J9 AMBIO BP 74 EP 83 PY 2005 PD MAR VL 34 IS 2 GA 912PE UT ISI:000228090700004 ER PT J AU Sparks, TH Croxton, PJ Collinson, N Taylor, PW TI Examples of phenological change, past and present, in UK farming SO ANNALS OF APPLIED BIOLOGY LA English DT Article C1 NERC Ctr Ecol & Hydrol, Huntingdon PE28 2LS, Cambs, England. Woodland Trust, Grantham NG31 6LL, Lincolnshire, England. RP Sparks, TH, NERC Ctr Ecol & Hydrol, Monks Wood, Huntingdon PE28 2LS, Cambs, England. AB This paper examines a large number of agricultural and other phenological records kept by a fanner in Sussex, UK from 1980 to 2000. Twenty five of the 29 events were earlier in 1990-2000 than in 1980-1989. The average advancement of all 29 events was 5.5 days at a time when January-March mean temperature increased by 1.4 degrees C. In comparing the events with monthly mean temperatures, 18 of the events were significantly negatively related to temperatures of the three calendar months preceding the mean event date. Response rates to temperature varied between 4 and 12 days earlier for each degrees C warmer. A comparison with historical fanning records reveals that many of the current farming events appear as responsive to temperature now as they were 200 years ago. CR ABUASAB MS, 2001, BIODIVERS CONSERV, V10, P597 BEEBEE TJC, 1995, NATURE, V374, P219 BURTON JF, 2003, ATALANTA, V34, P3 CHMIELEWSKI FM, 2004, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V121, P69 CRICK HQP, 1999, NATURE, V399, P423 FITTER AH, 2002, SCIENCE, V296, P1689 HANKS GR, 1996, J HORTIC SCI BIOTECH, V71, P517 HULME M, 2002, CLIMATE CHANGE SCENA LEHIKOINEN E, 2004, ADV ECOL RES, V35, P1 MARGARY ID, 1926, Q J ROY METEOR SOC, V52, P27 MATSUMOTO K, 2003, GLOBAL CHANGE BIOL, V9, P1634 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 MENZEL A, 1999, NATURE, V397, P659 PARKER DE, 1992, INT J CLIMATOL, V12, P317 RUSSELL SC, 1921, Q J ROY METEOR SOC, V47, P57 SPARKS T, 2002, CLIMATE CHANGE IMPAC, P69 SPARKS TH, 1999, ESSEX BIRD REP, P154 SPARKS TH, 2000, INT J BIOMETEOROL, V44, P82 SPARKS TH, 2002, INT J CLIMATOL, V22, P1715 SPARKS TH, 2002, WEATHER, V57, P157 WILLIAMS TA, 2004, OECOLOGIA, V138, P122 ZHOU XL, 1995, GLOBAL CHANGE BIOL, V1, P303 NR 22 TC 2 J9 ANN APPL BIOL BP 531 EP 537 PY 2005 VL 146 IS 4 GA 958RO UT ISI:000231465600014 ER PT J AU Mossler, M TI Environmental hazard analysis and small island states: Rethinking academic approaches SO GEOGRAPHISCHE ZEITSCHRIFT LA English DT Article RP Mossler, M, RUTGERS STATE UNIV,DEPT GEOG,LUCY STONE HALL,LIVINGSTON CAMPUS,POB 5080,NEW BRUNSWICK,NJ 08903. CR *GOV GREN ORG AM S, 1988, ID MON MIT HAZ RISKS *PANC DIS PREP PRE, 1984, NEWSLETTER OCT, P8 ALEXANDER D, 1991, DISASTERS, V15, P209 ALEXANDER D, 1992, ENVIRON GEOL WATER S, V20, P165 ALEXANDER D, 1995, NATURAL DISASTERS BENDER SO, 1989, C DIS SUST DEV LOOK, P88 BERKE P, 1991, LINKING HURRICANE DI BERKE P, 1991, MONTSERRAT EMERGENCY BOGARD WC, 1988, SOCIOL PERSPECT, V31, P147 BURTON I, 1978, ENV HAZARD, V1, P1 CAMBERS G, 1993, RISK ISLANDS E CARIB COLLYMORE JM, 1989, DISASTER MANAGEMENT, V2, P87 COLLYMORE JM, 1992, DISASTER MANAGEMENT, V4, P163 CROSS JA, 1992, J GEOGR, V91, P190 CUNY FC, 1983, DISASTERS DEV CUTTER S, 1994, ENV RISKS HAZARDS CUTTER SL, 1989, PROF GEOGR, V41, P149 DEGG M, 1992, GEOGRAPHY, V77, P198 HAMMERTON JL, 1984, DISASTERS, V8, P279 HEWITT K, 1971, HAZARDOUSNESS PLACE HEWITT K, 1983, INTERPRETATIONS CALA KATES RW, 1994, ENV RISKS HAZARDS, P78 LEWIS J, 1981, PAC VIEWPOINT, V22, P145 LEWIS J, 1984, DISASTERS, V8, P190 LEWIS J, 1990, DISASTERS, V14, P241 MARSTON SA, 1983, POLIT GEOGR QUART, V2, P339 MCINTOSH CE, 1984, DISASTERS, V8, P273 MEYERARENDT KJ, 1991, GEOJOURNAL, V23, P323 MITCHELL JK, 1985, DISASTERS, V9, P286 MITCHELL JK, 1989, GEOGR REV, V79, P391 MITCHELL JK, 1989, GEOGRAPHY AM, P410 OKEEFE P, 1976, NATURE, V260, P566 PALM RI, 1990, NATURAL HAZARDS INTE PERNETTA JC, 1992, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V2, P19 SAVAGE M, 1993, GEOGR REV, V83, P290 SMITH K, 1992, ENV HAZARDS ASSESSIN TIMMERMAN P, 1981, ENV MONOGRAPH, V1, P1 TOMBLIN J, 1981, AMBIO, V10, P340 VERMEIREN JC, 1991, CARIBBEAN ECOLOGY EC, P127 WATTS MJ, 1983, INTERPRETATIONS CALA, P231 WATTS MJ, 1993, GEOJOURNAL, V30, P117 WHITE GF, 1974, NATURAL HAZARDS LOCA WISNER B, 1993, GEOJOURNAL, V30, P127 NR 43 TC 0 J9 GEOGR Z BP 86 EP 93 PY 1996 VL 84 IS 2 GA WM498 UT ISI:A1996WM49800004 ER PT J AU Ramakrishnan, PS TI Sustainable development, climate change and tropical rain forest landscape SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 Jawaharlal Nehru Univ, Sch Environm Sci, New Delhi 110067, India. RP Ramakrishnan, PS, Jawaharlal Nehru Univ, Sch Environm Sci, New Delhi 110067, India. AB A potential impact of climate change in the south Asian context in general and the Indian subcontinent in particular is an increase in rainfall, in some areas up to 50%. Using an extensive information base available on the dynamics of landscape structure and function of the northeastern hill areas of India, scenarios on landscape changes, as an adaptation to climate change, have been constructed. Climate change would impose a variety of stresses on sustainable livelihood of the inhabitants of the rain-forested areas through stresses on ecosystem function. It is concluded that appropriate management strategies for natural forests and plantation forestry should go hand in hand with a comprehensive rural ecosystem rehabilitation plan. CR 1980, VILLAGE DEV BOARDS M, P39 *FAO SIDA, 1974, SEM SHIFT CULT SOIL, P248 *GCTE, 1994, GLOB CHANG TERR EC O, P35 ALTIERI MA, 1990, AGROECOLOGY RES ECOL, P70 BROOKFIELD H, 1994, ENVIRONMENT, V36, P37 DAZHONG W, 1990, AGROECOLOGY RES ECOL, P322 GLIESSMAN SR, 1988, WEED MANAGEMENT AGRO, P237 GLIESSMAN SR, 1990, ECOL STUD, V78, P380 HARE WL, 1990, ECOLOGICALLY SUSTAIN KHIEWTAM RS, 1993, FOREST ECOL MANAG, V60, P327 KLINGE H, 1973, TROPIC ECOL, V14, P28 LETOURNEAU DK, 1990, AGROECOLOGY RES ECOL, P11 LITSINGER JA, 1976, MULTIPLE CROPPING, P293 RAMAKRISHNAN PS, 1984, ENVIRON CONSERV, V11, P170 RAMAKRISHNAN PS, 1992, IMPACT SCI SOC, V42, P149 RAMAKRISHNAN PS, 1992, UNESCO MAB SERIES, P424 RAMAKRISHNAN PS, 1993, SUSTAINABILITY DO WE, P165 RAMAKRISHNAN PS, 1994, HIMALAYAN ENV SUSTAI, P84 RAMAKRISHNAN PS, 1994, MANAGEMENT TROPICAL, P189 RAMAKRISHNAN PS, 1994, SPECIAL PUBLICATION, P29 RAMAKRISHNAN PS, 1995, BIODIVERSITY SCI DEV, P114 SPEDDING CRW, 1979, INTRO AGR SYSTEMS, P169 STARK N, 1977, ECOLOGY, V58, P434 SWIFT MJ, 1996, SCOPE SERIES, P261 VANDERMEER J, 1989, ECOLOGY INTERCROPPIN VANDERMEER J, 1990, AGROECOLOGY RES ECOL, P205 WHITMORE TC, 1990, INTRO TROPICAL RAIN, P226 NR 27 TC 2 J9 CLIMATIC CHANGE BP 583 EP 600 PY 1998 PD JUL VL 39 IS 2-3 GA 108TE UT ISI:000075280900023 ER PT J AU Christenson, M Manz, H Gyalistras, D TI Climate warming impact on degree-days and building energy demand in Switzerland SO ENERGY CONVERSION AND MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article C1 Swiss Fed Labs Mat Testing & Tes, EMPA, Lab Appl Phys Bldg, CH-8600 Dubendorf, Switzerland. Swiss Fed Inst Technol, ETH Zurich, Inst Terr Ecol, CH-8952 Schlieren, Switzerland. RP Manz, H, Swiss Fed Labs Mat Testing & Tes, EMPA, Lab Appl Phys Bldg, CH-8600 Dubendorf, Switzerland. AB The impact of climate warming on Swiss building energy demand was investigated by means of the degree-days method. A procedure to estimate heating degree-days (HDD) and cooling degree-days (CDD) from monthly temperature data was developed, tested and applied to four representative Swiss locations. Past trends were determined from homogenized temperature data for the period 1901-2003. The range of possible future trends for the 21st century was assessed based on 41 regional climate change scenarios derived from 35 simulations with 8 global climate models. During 1901-2003, the HDD were found to have decreased by 11-18%, depending on the threshold temperature (8, 10 or 12 degrees C) and location. For the period 1975-2085, the scenario calculations suggested a further decrease between 13% and 87%. For CDD, accelerating positive trends were found during the 20th and 21st centuries. The HDD showed the largest absolute and the CDD the largest relative sensitivity to warming (albeit starting from relatively low levels). Weather data currently used for building design increasingly lead to an overestimation of heating and underestimation of cooling demand in buildings and, thus, require periodic adaptation. Projections were particularly sensitive to the choice of temperature scenario. Nevertheless, they suggest for the next decades significant, seasonally and regionally variable shifts in the energy consumption of Swiss buildings that deserve further study. In particular, greater attention needs to be paid in future to the summer thermal behaviour of buildings. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *AM SOC HEAT REFR, 2001, ASHRAE FUND HDB 2001 *BUWAL, 2002, CLIM HUM HANDS NEW F *SIA, 1982, 3813 SIA BADESCU V, 1999, ENERG CONVERS MANAGE, V40, P885 BEGERT M, 2003, NORM90 MET SWISS BELZER DB, 1996, ENERG SOURCE, V18, P177 BOER GJ, 2000, CLIM DYNAM, V16, P427 BOER GJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, P525 CANNISTRARO G, 1995, ENERGY, V20, P637 CARTALIS C, 2001, ENERGY CONVERSION MA, V42, P1656 EMORI S, 1999, J METEOROL SOC JPN, V77, P1299 ERBS DG, 1983, ASHRAE J, V25, P60 GELEGENIS JJ, 1999, RENEW ENERG, V18, P49 GIORGI F, 2002, J CLIMATE, V15, P1141 GORDON C, 2000, CLIM DYNAM, V16, P147 GYALISTRAS D, 1994, CLIM RES, V4, P167 GYALISTRAS D, 1998, VIEWS ALPS REGIONAL, P171 GYALISTRAS D, 2000, KLIMAWANDEL SCHWEIZE, P197 GYALISTRAS D, 2002, UNCERTAINTY ANAL MON GYALISTRAS D, 2003, CLIMATE RES, V25, P55 JASPER K, 2004, CLIMATE RES, V26, P113 KERNEN R, 2002, GCMDAT VERSION 1 1 D LEGGETT J, 1992, CLIMATE CHANGE 1992, P69 MEARNS LO, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, P739 NAKICENOVIC N, 2000, IPCC SPECIAL REPORT PRETLOVE SEC, 1998, P CIBSE BUILD SERV E, V19, P55 ROSENTHAL DH, 1995, ENERGY J, V16, P77 SKARTVEIT A, 1992, DESIGN REFERENCE YEA THOM HC, 1954, MON WEA REV, V82, P111 WASHINGTON WM, 2000, CLIM DYNAM, V16, P755 NR 30 TC 1 J9 ENERG CONV MANAGE BP 671 EP 686 PY 2006 PD APR VL 47 IS 6 GA 013DP UT ISI:000235390100002 ER PT J AU Smith, JB Lenhart, SS TI Climate change adaptation policy options SO CLIMATE RESEARCH LA English DT Article RP Smith, JB, HAGLER BAILLY INC,PO DRAWER O,BOULDER,CO 80306. AB Africa is one of the regions of the world potentially most vulnerable to climate change. Warming of the globe due to increased atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases appears to be inevitable. Therefore, it is imperative that policy makers in regions such as Africa begin to consider what measures they should take to adapt to the potential conseqences of climate change. A number of adaptation policies are suggested here. The policies address general adaptation measures as well as specific measures in water resources, coastal resources (adapting to sea-level rise), forests, ecosystems, and agriculture. These measures would enhance the flexibility of resources to adapt to climate change and would have net benefits greater than costs. In some cases, the measures make sense without considering climate change because they help address current climate variability. In other cases, the measures must be implemented in anticipation of climate change because they would be ineffective if implemented as a reaction to climate change. CR *CAN CLIM PROGR, 1993, 19 U GUELPH *IPCC, 1990, POL MAK SUMM FORM RE *NAS, 1992, POL IMPL GREENH WARM *OTA, 1993, PREPARING UNCERTAIN, V1 *OTA, 1993, PREPARING UNCERTAIN, V2 *UNEP WMO, 1992, UN FRAM CONV CLIM CH *WORLD BANK, 1992, 1992 WORLD BANK *WORLD RES I, 1994, WORLD RES 1994 95 COOPER CF, 1992, SENSITIVITIES W US E EASTERLING WE, 1993, PREPARING UNCERTAIN, V1, P303 ELRAEY M, 1995, EGYPT J COAST RES, V14, P190 FREDERICK KD, 1989, GREENHOUSE WARMING A, P133 FREDERICK KD, 1990, CLIMATE CHANGE US WA, P395 FRENCH GT, 1995, J COASTAL RES, V14, P224 GILLILAN D, 1992, INNOVATIVE APPROACHE GLEICK P, 1993, WATER CRISIS HOUGHTON JT, 1990, CLIMATE CHANGE IPCC HOUGHTON JT, 1992, CLIMATE CHANGE 1992 JOHDA NS, 1989, GREENHOUSE WARMING A, P147 LEWANDROWSKI JK, 1993, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V23, P1 LILLIEHOLM RJ, 1993, PREPARING UNCERTAIN, V2, P244 MITCHELL JFB, 1995, NATURE, V376, P501 ROSENZWEIG C, 1994, NATURE, V367, P133 SCHAD TM, 1992, NEW COMMISSION STUDY SMITH JB, IN PRESS ENV PROF SMITH JB, 1989, EPA2300589050 SMITH JB, 1995, CLIMATE CHANGES INT, P4 SMITH W, 1992, WORKSH CONV OFF TECH STRZEPEK KM, 1995, CLIMATE CHANGES INT TEGART WJ, 1990, CLIMATE CHANGE IPCC THEU J, IN PRESS ADAPTING CL THOMSON DJ, 1995, SCIENCE, V268, P59 WAHL R, 1992, MANAGEMENT WATER RES WANG B, 1995, J COASTAL RES, V14, P151 WARREN RS, 1992, COASTAL LAND VULNERA WIGLEY TML, 1992, NATURE, V357, P293 WILHITE DA, 1990, IDIC TECHNICAL SERIE, V901 NR 37 TC 10 J9 CLIMATE RES BP 193 EP 201 PY 1996 PD FEB 19 VL 6 IS 2 GA UD549 UT ISI:A1996UD54900014 ER PT J AU Alexandrov, VA Hoogenboom, G TI Vulnerability and adaptation assessments of agricultural crops under climate change in the Southeastern USA SO THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY LA English DT Review C1 Natl Meteorol & Hydrol, BG-1784 Sofia, Bulgaria. Univ Georgia, Griffin, GA 30223 USA. RP Hoogenboom, G, Natl Meteorol & Hydrol, BG-1784 Sofia, Bulgaria. AB It is expected that a change in climatic conditions due to global warming will directly impact agricultural production. Most climate change studies have been applied at very large scales, in which regions were represented by only one or two weather stations, which were mainly located at airports of major cities. The objective of this study was to determine the potential impact of climate change at a local level, taking into account weather data recorded at remote locations. Daily weather data for a 30-year period were obtained for more than 500 sites, representing the southeastern region of the USA. Climate change scenarios, using transient and equilibrium global circulation models (GCM), were defined, created and applied to the daily historical weather data. The modified temperature, precipitation and solar radiation databases corresponding to each of the climate change scenarios were used to run the CERES v.3.5 simulation model for maize and winter wheat and the CROPGRO v.3.5 model for soybean and peanut. The GCM scenarios projected a shorter duration of the crop-growing season. Under the current level of CO2, the GCM scenarios projected a decrease of crop yields in the 2020s. When the direct effects of CO2 were assumed in the study, the scenarios resulted in an increase in soybean and peanut yield. Under equilibrium 2 x CO2, the GCM climate change scenarios projected a decrease of maize and winter wheat yield. The indirect effects of climate change also tended to decrease soybean and peanut yield. However, when the direct effects of CO2 were included, most of the scenarios resulted in an increase in legume yields. Possible changes in sowing data, hybrids and cultivar selection, and fertilization were considered as adaptation options to mitigate the potential negative impact of potential warming. 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AB The interface between the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP) and discussions of policy alternatives for global environmental change has not yet been clearly articulated. As a possible framework for this needed debate, a natural scientist's view is presented of the different perspectives that appear to underlie conflicting agendas for mitigation, adaptation and response strategies. Based upon different ways individual humans respond to uncertainties in everyday life, these agendas have distinct but specific needs for scientific and technical information. IGBP can best serve decision makers by consciously catering to the highest priority requirements of each agenda, without attempting to pass judgement between them. The dialogue with social scientists and members of action groups necessary to clarify these information needs and expectations has barely begun. It can be anticipated that as this dialogue develops it will have a far-reaching influence on the future formulation of IGBP. CR 1987, COMMON FUTURE 1992, GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL, V2, P262 ORIORDAN T, 1991, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V1, P91 SCHWARZ M, 1990, DIVIDED STAND REDEFI NR 4 TC 2 J9 AMBIO BP 96 EP 97 PY 1994 PD FEB VL 23 IS 1 GA NA336 UT ISI:A1994NA33600017 ER PT J AU Day, JW Maltby, E Ibanez, C TI River basin management and delta sustainability: A commentary on the Ebro Delta and the Spanish National Hydrological Plan SO ECOLOGICAL ENGINEERING LA English DT Editorial Material C1 Louisiana State Univ, Sch Coast & Environm, Dept Oceanog & Coastal Sci, Baton Rouge, LA 70803 USA. Univ Liverpool, Inst Sustainable Water Integrated Management & Ec, Liverpool L69 3BX, Merseyside, England. Aquat Ecosyst Unit UEA IRTA, Sant Carels Rapita 03540, Catalonia, Spain. RP Day, JW, Louisiana State Univ, Sch Coast & Environm, Dept Oceanog & Coastal Sci, Baton Rouge, LA 70803 USA. 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RP Cohen, SJ, 2202 Main Mall, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z4, Canada. AB The consequences of climate change and sustainable development remaining as separate discourses are explored, both in general and in the Canadian context. One of these consequences is the difference in emission and economic development scenarios generated by the two groups. A second is that strategies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions are designed and assessed in a narrow technical context, divorced from the economic and social forces that underlie them. We identify the need for climate change and sustainable development to be represented in a more explicit manner in each other's research agendas, and for integrated assessment of climate change to incorporate alternative methodologies that complement global scale integrated assessment models. These methodologies should include greater involvement of stakeholders as partners with researchers in a shared learning experience. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. 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RP Overbeck, GE, Tech Univ Munich, Hochanger 6, D-85350 Freising Weihenstephan, Germany. AB Extensive parts of subtropical South America are covered by grassland vegetation, despite climatic conditions that allow for forest development, and fire may have been an important factor in the evolutionary history of these grasslands. In a regularly burned grassland area, situated in a forest-grassland-mosaic near Porto Alegre, RS, Brazil, life form spectrum and plant species' reaction to fire were examined, allowing for (1) a physiognomic description of the grassland, and (2) a functional classification of grassland species in relation to fire. Grassland sites with different time since the last fire occurred were compared between each other as well as to sites at the forest-grassland border. South Brazilian grassland is dominated by hemicryptophytic caespitose graminoids that resist fires, but contains a large number of geophytic or hemicryptophytic forbs, in general sprouting after fire. Shrubs, mostly sprouting species of the grassland community, were present with high cover values even in recently burned areas. In contrast to Central Brazilian Cerrado, trees were of little importance: most species found were forest pioneer species without the capacity to survive fires unless growing on sites protected from fire or at the forest border where burns stop. Non-sprouting species were of little importance in the community, and only two species found were therophytes. Lack of therophytes in South Brazilian grassland vegetation deserves further attention. (c) 2006 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved. 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Forest Res, No Res Stn, Roslin EH25 9SY, Midlothian, Scotland. RP Broadmeadow, MSJ, Forest Res, Alice Holt Lodge, Farnham GU10 4LH, Surrey, England. AB The most recent climate change predictions for the UK indicate a warming of between 2 and 5 degrees C by the end of this century, with drier summers and wetter winters also anticipated across the majority of the country. Changes are predicted to be more extreme in the southern half of the UK, where severe summer droughts will become commonplace. Although rising atmospheric CO2 levels are likely to increase productivity through 'fertilizing' photosynthesis, water limitation in southern England is likely to lead to an overall reduction in growth and increase in drought-induced mortality. Incorporation of, the climate change scenarios within the GIS model Ecological Site Classification indicates that in isolation, the effects of climate change will result in significant changes in species suitability. Under current definitions the majority of native broadleaf species are predicted to become unsuitable for commercial timber production in southern England. Genetic variability in local native populations may enable a degree of adaptation. Existing trials of ash (Fraxinus excelsior L.) suggest that the best performing provenances are those from regions with a climate similar to that of the trial site. The selection of a provenance for climate change adaptation should be from a region with a current climate well matched to a planting site's predicted climate of the future. Climate matching analysis indicates that coastal areas of western France experience a climate similar to that predicted for southern England by 2050, while the more extreme scenarios predict climates better matched to the Mediterranean region at high elevation by the end of the century. The scale of climate change predictions indicates that, in southern England, native broadleaf species may be unsuitable for timber production on some soils. The planting of non-native species may need to be considered to maintain woodland cover and ensure a viable hardwood timber industry. CR *FOR COMM, 2001, NAT INV WOODL TREES *FOR COMM, 2002, NAT INV WOODL TREES *FOR COMM, 2003, NAT INV WOODL TREES *IPCC, 2000, EM SCEN SPEC REP WOR *MAFF, 1967, MIN AGR FISH FOOD TE, V16 BILLINGTON HL, 1991, FUNCT ECOL, V5, P403 BROADMEADOW M, 2003, FOREST RES ANN REPOR, P70 BROADMEADOW MSJ, 2000, NEW PHYTOL, V146, P437 BROADMEADOW MSJ, 2002, FORESTRY COMMISSION, V125 BROADMEADOW MSJ, 2002, FORESTRY COMMISSION, V125, P119 BROWN N, 1997, FORESTRY, V70, P191 CANNELL MGR, 1984, FORESTRY, V57, P177 CANNELL MGR, 1989, FORESTRY, V62, P337 CANNELL MGR, 1997, EC IMPACTS HOT SUMME, P33 CANNELL MGR, 1998, FORESTRY, V71, P277 COX PM, 2000, NATURE, V408, P184 CUNDALL EP, 2003, FORESTRY, V76, P385 CURTIS PS, 1998, OECOLOGIA, V113, P299 DONALDSON LA, 1987, IAWA BULL, V8, P285 DURRANT D, 2000, 37 FOR COMM EAMUS D, 1989, ADV ECOL RES, V19, P1 ENNOS RA, 2000, 31 FOR COMM EVANS H, 2002, FOR COM B, V125, P99 HATTENSCHWILER S, 1996, PLANT CELL ENVIRON, V19, P1369 HOUGHTON JT, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 HULME M, 2002, CLIMATE CHANGE SCENA MEDLYN BE, 2001, NEW PHYTOL, V149, P247 NEW M, 2002, CLIMATE RES, V21, P1 NISBET TR, 2002, FORESTRY COMMISSION, V125, P53 NORBY RJ, 1999, PLANT CELL ENVIRON, V22, P683 OREN R, 2001, NATURE, V411, P469 PENMAN HL, 1948, P ROY SOC LOND A MAT, V193, P120 PETERKEN GF, 1996, FORESTRY, V69, P125 PYATT DG, 2001, FORESTRY COMMISSION, V124 REDFERN D, 1995, 282 FOR COMM REDFERN D, 2002, FORESTRY COMMISSION, V125, P29 RODWELL JS, 1991, BRIT PLANT COMMUNITI, V1 WATT AD, 1996, ASPECTS APPL BIOL, V45, P307 NR 38 TC 2 J9 FORESTRY BP 145 EP 161 PY 2005 PD MAY VL 78 IS 2 GA 914PH UT ISI:000228239400005 ER PT J AU Sinclair, AJ Ham, L TI Household adaptive strategies: Shaping livelihood security in the Western Himalaya SO REVUE CANADIENNE D ETUDES DU DEVELOPPEMENT-CANADIAN JOURNAL OF DEVELOPMENT STUDIES LA English DT Article C1 Univ Manitoba, Nat Resources Inst, Winnipeg, MB R3T 2N2, Canada. RP Sinclair, AJ, Univ Manitoba, Nat Resources Inst, Winnipeg, MB R3T 2N2, Canada. AB This research investigates the livelihood systems of two mountain villages in the northwest Himalaya, focussing or? household strategies of diversification as a means of maintaining livelihood security Field research was carried out with women of different age and caste from 32 households. Eight strategies were found to be of particular importance: (1) the diversification of activities and household inputs, (2) the maintenance of crop biodiversity and landscape diversity in the agricultural system, (3) the increased negotiations with the market, (4) the reliance on agricultural wage labour (5) the building up and drawing down of household inventories, (6) the reliance on common property resources, (7) the development of social networks, and (8) the formation of community groups. Policy for sustainable livelihoods in mountain ecosystems must be firmly rooted in an understanding of these complex strategies and the knowledge of women's own efforts to ensure that their households are secure and resilient. CR *CWD, 1987, UNU WORKSH COMP STUD *INT CTR INT MOUNT, 1988, INT WORKSH WOM DEV M ACHARYA S, 1985, WOMENS WORK FAMILY S AGARWAL B, 1988, POVERTY STRUCTURES P, P83 AGARWAL B, 1990, J PEASANT STUD, V17, P341 ALLAN NJR, 1987, HUMAN IMPACT MOUNTAI BERKES F, 1997, SUSTAINABILITY MOUNT BERKES F, 1998, LINKING SOCIAL ECOLO, V1, P1 BERKES F, 1998, MT RES DEV, V18, P19 BERREMAN GD, 1970, CHANGE CONTINUITY IN CHAMBERS R, 1983, RURAL DEV PUTTING LA CHAMBERS R, 1992, 296 U SUSS I DEV STU CHEN M, 1988, 4 NAT C WOM STUD WAL DENNISTON D, 1995, 123 WORLD WATCH I DUFFIELD C, 1998, MT RES DEV, V18, P35 ECKHOLM E, 1975, SCIENCE, V189, P764 FISHER J, 1994, ENVIRONMENT, V36, P6 HARCOURT APF, 1871, HIMALAYAN DISTRICTS HOLLING CS, 1998, LINKING SOCIAL ECOLO, P342 IVES JD, 1989, HIMALAYAN DILEMMA RE JODHA NS, 1992, SUSTAINABLE MOUNTAIN, V1 JODHA NS, 1992, SUSTAINABLE MOUNTAIN, V2 KIRK C, 1993, SOCIOECONOMIC SETTIN, V2 MADAN SS, 1994, COMMUNICATION MOENCH M, 1989, ENVIRON CONSERV, V16, P137 NETTING R, 1993, SMALLHOLDERS HOUSEHO PHILLIPS L, 1989, CANADIAN REV SOCIOLO, V26, P294 SINGH RB, 1998, SUSTAINABLE DEV MOUN THOMPSON M, 1985, MT RES DEV, V5, P115 THOMPSON M, 1993, WORKSH RISK FAIRN LA NR 30 TC 4 J9 REV CAN ETUD DEVELOP BP 89 EP 112 PY 2000 VL 21 IS 1 GA 308QL UT ISI:000086724300004 ER PT J AU Dore, MHI TI Climate change and changes in global precipitation patterns: What do we know? SO ENVIRONMENT INTERNATIONAL LA English DT Review C1 Brock Univ, Climat Change Lab, St Catharines, ON L2S 3A1, Canada. RP Dore, MHI, Brock Univ, Climat Change Lab, St Catharines, ON L2S 3A1, Canada. AB The objective of this paper is to synthesize the large literature recording changing patterns of precipitation in the observed data, thus indicating that climate change is already a reality. Such a synthesis is required not only for environmental researchers but also for policy makers. The key question is the broad picture at major regional and continental levels. Some interesting conclusions for this survey are emerging. For example, the review shows increased variance of precipitation everywhere. Consistent with this finding, we observe that wet areas become wetter, and dry and and areas become more so. In addition, the following general changing pattern is emerging: (a) increased precipitation in high latitudes (Northern Hemisphere); (b) reductions in precipitation in China, Australia and the Small Island States in the Pacific; and (c) increased variance in equatorial regions. The changes in the major ocean currents also appear to be affecting precipitation patterns. For example, increased intensity and frequency of El Nino and ENSO seem associated with evidence of an observed "dipole" pattern affecting Africa and Asia, although this time series is too short so far. But the changing pattern calls for renewed efforts at adaptation to climate change, as the changing precipitation pattern will also affect the regional availability of food supply. (C) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 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P653 YU B, 1993, INT J CLIMATOL, V13, P77 ZENG N, 1999, SCIENCE, V286, P1537 ZHAI PM, 1999, ACTA METEOROL SIN, V57, P208 ZHAI PM, 1999, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V42, P203 ZHANG XB, 2000, ATMOS OCEAN, V38, P395 NR 170 TC 4 J9 ENVIRON INT BP 1167 EP 1181 PY 2005 PD OCT VL 31 IS 8 GA 967FW UT ISI:000232077900007 ER PT J AU LEE, GF JONES, RA TI EFFECTS OF EUTROPHICATION ON FISHERIES SO REVIEWS IN AQUATIC SCIENCES LA English DT Review RP LEE, GF, G FRED LEE & ASSOCIATES,27298 E EL MACERO DR,EL MACERO,CA 95618. AB While eutrophication is often discussed in light of its impact on contact recreation, aesthetic character, and the quality of a water for water supply, it can also have a marked impact on the fisheries resources of a waterbody. Qualitatively, aquatic plants serve as the foundation for higher trophic level development; aquatic macrophytes provide habitat. Excessive fertility can also, however, have adverse impacts on the quality and quantity of fish that can be supported in a waterbody. This paper presents a discussion of the qualitative impacts of eutrophication and eutrophication management approaches on fisheries. It also introduces an approach for estimating the fish yield that could be sustained in a waterbody, and the change in fish yield that would be expected to result from eutrophication management practices involving P load reduction. This approach, which is an adaptation of the statistical Vollenweider-OECD eutrophication models, is a statistical relationship between the Vollenweider-normalized P loading and wet-weight fish yield. The use of this model as a quantitative management tool in the evaluation of the impact of nutrient load manipulation on the expected yield of fish is discussed. NR 0 TC 12 J9 REV AQUAT SCI BP 287 EP 305 PY 1991 VL 5 IS 3-4 GA GW800 UT ISI:A1991GW80000006 ER PT J AU Thompson, SP Piehler, MF Paerl, HW TI Denitrification in an estuarine headwater creek within an agricultural watershed SO JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY LA English DT Article C1 Univ N Carolina, Inst Marine Sci, Morehead City, NC 28557 USA. RP Thompson, SP, Univ N Carolina, Inst Marine Sci, 3431 Arendell St, Morehead City, NC 28557 USA. AB Nonpoint agricultural surface water runoff has been identified as a significant contributor to watershed nitrogen (N) loading. Denitrification is thought to be a substantial sink for N inputs to estuaries. Denitrification rates and inorganic N concentrations were measured in Culvert Creek, NC for a 3-yr period with an adaptation of the acetylene block technique using saturation kinetic incubations that provided estimated in situ and potential rates. Estimated in situ denitrification and inorganic N concentrations sere elevated in portions of Culvert Creek, NC following fertilizer application at adjacent Open Grounds Farm Statistical correlations indicated that denitrification in Culvert Creek was regulated by inorganic N, paticularly at headwater sites. Regulation was complex at estuarine sites, where dynamic hydrological conditions affected microbial processing of N through coupled nitrification-denitrification. Potential denitrification rates were often an order of magnitude higher than estimated in situ rates. Potential denitrification showed a similar seasonal-spatial pattern to that of nitrification at the most estuarine site, dth lower rates at the mid-creek sites where nitrification was inhibited during periods of anoxia. Annual N removal in Culvert Creek was estimated at 1.27% (in situ) or 68.70% (potential rates) of inputs. An estimated 11% of N inputs, were removed via the nitrification-denitrification pathway in Culvert Creek assuming that rates were closely coupled. Mean annual (1995-1997) creek denitrification rates of 2.17 kg N ha(-1) yr(-1) (in situ) and 90.52 kg N ha(-1) yr(-1) (potential) were within the range of rates measured in various freshwater wetland systems receiving agricultural drainage. In Culvert Creek? denitrification was a significant mediator of estuarine headwater N cycling. 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RP FREEDMAN, L, UNIV WESTERN AUSTRALIA,DEPT ANAT & HUMAN BIOL,NEDLANDS,WA 6907,AUSTRALIA. AB Twentieth-century humankind is characterized by intellectual and technological brilliance - and social and Environmental chaos. Using a broad multidisciplinary approach, termed human biology the ongoing evolution of the biosphere and, in particular; humankind are reviewed. It is proposed that a lack of full understanding and acceptance of the physical requirements a,ld limitations of the human body: and of the unique, behavioural potential and responsibilities of humankind, as individuals and as a species, underlie some of the most significant world-wide, behavioral and ecological problems. An appreciation of the phenomenon of evolution, and the evolutionary mechanism, which was introduced with the emergence and flowering of humankind, provides an essential clue to the behavioural change necessary for future progress towards greater equity and sustainability for humankind and the biosphere. 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UNEP, Collaborating Ctr Energy & Environm, Roskilde, Denmark. IIED, London, England. Natl Inst Publ Hlth & Environm, RIVM, NL-3720 BA Bilthoven, Netherlands. ENDA, Environm & Dev Tiers Monde, Dakar, Senegal. Wageningen UR, Plant Res Int, Wageningen, Netherlands. RP Kok, M, Univ Cape Town, EDRC, ZA-7700 Rondebosch, South Africa. AB This paper explores an alternative approach to future climate policies in developing countries. Although climate change seems marginal compared to the pressing issues of poverty alleviation and economic development, it is becoming clear that the realisation of development goals may be hampered by climate change. However, development can be shaped in such a way as to achieve its goals and at the same time reduce vulnerability to climate change, thereby facilitating sustainable development that realises economic, social, local and global environmental goals. This approach has been coined the 'development first approach', in which a future climate regime should focus on development strategies with ancillary climate benefits and increase the capability of developing countries to implement these. This is anticipated to offer a possible positive way out of the current deadlock between North and South in the climate negotiations. First, elements are presented for an integrated approach to development and climate; second, the approach is elaborated for food and energy security in sub-Saharan Africa; and third, possibilities are outlined for international mechanisms to support such integrated development and climate strategies. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 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RP Huang, JCK, US Country Studies Program, 1000 Independence Ave,SW,PO-6, Washington, DC 20585 USA. AB The US Country Studies Program (US CSP) is parr of the United States' contribution to the objectives of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) by providing financial and technical support to developing and economically transitional countries to carry out their country studies in order to address issues on climate change The Country Studies results will be the scientific and technical bases for planning their climate change national action plans which will be implemented for future national communications and will eventually be required by the UNFCCC. Among the 56 countries supported by the US CSP there are strong oceanic and coastal vulnerability and adaptation projects in 41 country studies For the eight small island nations in the program, integrated coastal management (ICM) is the recommended adaptation strategy as the essential part of their climate change national action plans. This paper reviews the difficulties and challenges facing small island starts as they attempt to address climate change impacts on their environments, cultures, societies and economics. The paper draws on presentations and discussions taking place at a Regional Workshop for Pacific Island Nations taking place in Honolulu, Hawaii in September 1994 sponsored by the US Country Studies Program. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *IPCC CZMS, 1991, ASS VULN COAST AR SE AITAOTO A, 1994, CLIM CHANG AD STRAT, P46 BIJLSMA L, 1992, GLOB CLIM CHANG RIS DAHL C, 1994, CLIM CHANG AD STRAT, P49 HOUGHTON JT, 1990, CLIMATE CHANGE IPCC HOUGHTON JT, 1992, 1 IPCC HOUGHTON JT, 1994, WORLD COAST C 1993 N HOUGHTON JT, 1995, 2 IPCC ASS REP WORK HVIDING E, 1994, DEV CHANGE, V25, P13 IOU J, 1994, CLIM CHANG AD STRAT, P44 MISDORP R, 1990, STRATEGIES ADAPTATIO PEAU LM, 1994, CLIM CHANG AD STRAT SMITH A, 1994, CLIM CHANG AD STRAT, P54 SMITH A, 1994, RESPONSE STRATEGIES, P37 TEMPLET PH, 1986, COASTAL ZONE MANAGEM, V113, P241 NR 15 TC 0 J9 OCEAN COAST MANAGE BP 95 EP 107 PY 1997 VL 37 IS 1 GA ZM705 UT ISI:000073567600008 ER PT J AU Smith, JB Lazo, JK TI A summary of climate change impact assessments from the US Country studies program SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 Stratus Consulting Inc, Boulder, CO 80306 USA. RP Smith, JB, Stratus Consulting Inc, POB 4059, Boulder, CO 80306 USA. AB Forty-nine countries participating in the U.S. Country Studies Program (USCSP) assessed climate change impacts in one or more of eight sectors: coastal resources, agriculture, grasslands/livestock, water resources, forests, fisheries, wildlife, and health. The studies were generally limited to analysis of first order biophysical effects, e.g., coastal inundation, crop yield, and runoff changes. There were some limited studies of adaptation. We review and synthesize the results of the impact assessments conducted under the USCSP. The studies found that sea level rise could cause substantial inundation and erosion of valuable lands, but, protecting developed areas would be economically sound. The studies showed mixed results for changes in crop yields, with a tendency toward decreased yields in African and Asian countries, particularly southern Asian countries, and mixed results in European and Latin American countries. Adaptation could significantly affect yields, but it is not clear whether the adaptations are affordable or feasible. The studies tend to show a high sensitivity of runoff to climate change, which could result in increases in droughts or floods. The impacts on grasslands and livestock are mixed, but there appears to be a large capacity for adaptation. Human health problems could increase, particularly for populations in low-latitude countries with inadequate access to health care. The USCSP assessments found that the composition of forests is likely to change, while biomass could be reduced. Some wildlife species were estimated to have reduced populations. The major contribution of the USCSP was in building capacity in developing countries to assess potential climate impacts. However, many of the studies did not analyze the implications of biophysical impacts of climate change on socioeconomic conditions, cross-sectoral integration of impacts, autonomous adaptation, or proactive adaptation. Follow-on work should attempt to develop capacity in developing and transition countries to conduct more integrated studies of climate change impacts. CR *CIA, 1999, WORLD FACTB *IPCC CZMS, 1992, GLOB CLIM CHANG RIS *IPCC, 2001, CLIM CHANG 2001 SCI *US FISH WILDL SER, 1981, 103 ESM US FISH WILD *USCSP, 1999, US COUNTR STUD PROGR ALLENDIAZ B, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, V2 BAKER BB, 1993, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V25, P97 BENIOFF R, 1996, VULNERABILITY ADAPTA BOER GJ, 1992, J CLIMATE, V5, P1045 BOS E, 1994, WORLD POPULATION PRO BURNASH RJ, 1973, GEN STREAMFLOW SIMUL CARTER TR, 1994, IPCC TECHNICAL GUIDE DIXON RK, 1997, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V36, P1 FEENSTRA J, 1998, HDB METHODS CLIMATE HANSEN J, 1983, MON WEATHER REV, V111, P609 HANSON JD, 1992, 1 GPSR, P24 HANSON JD, 1993, AGR SYST, V41, P487 HOLDRIDGE LR, 1967, LIFE ZONE ECOLOGY HOUGHTON JT, 1990, CLIMATE CHANGE IPCC HOUGHTON JT, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995 KACZMAREK Z, 1993, ACTA GEOPHYS POL, V41, P1 KALKSTEIN LS, 1997, ENV HLTH PERSPECT, V105, P2 LEATHERMAN SP, 1995, J COASTAL RES, V14, P15 LEGGETT J, 1992, CLIMATE CHANGE 1992 MANABE S, 1991, J CLIMATE, V4, P785 MARKHAM A, 1996, ADAPTATION CLIMATE C MARTENS WJM, 1994, 461502003 RIVM MITCHELL JFB, 1990, CLIMATE CHANGE IPCC NEILSON RP, 1998, REGIONAL IMPACTS CLI RIND D, 1990, J GEOPHYS RES-ATMOS, V95, P9983 ROSENZWEIG C, 1994, 230B94003 EPA ROSENZWEIG C, 1994, NATURE, V367, P133 SCHLESINGER ME, 1989, J CLIMATE, V2, P459 SHUGART HH, 1980, BIOSCIENCE, V30, P208 SMITH JB, 1996, ADAPTATION CLIMATE C SMITH JB, 1996, VULNERABILITY ADAPTA SMITH JB, 1998, HDB METHODS CLIMATE TIMMERMANN A, 1999, NATURE, V398, P694 WATSON RT, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, V1, P1 WETHERALD RT, 1988, J ATMOS SCI, V45, P1397 WILSON CA, 1987, J GEOPHYS RES-ATMOSP, V92, P13315 WOLOCK DM, 1999, J AM WATER RESOUR AS, V35, P1341 YATES D, 1996, WATER RESOUR DEV, V12, P121 YATES DN, 1998, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V38, P261 NR 44 TC 6 J9 CLIMATIC CHANGE BP 1 EP 29 PY 2001 VL 50 IS 1-2 GA 441AW UT ISI:000169209700001 ER PT J AU Tol, RSJ TI Emission abatement versus development as strategies to reduce vulnerability to climate change: an application of FUND SO ENVIRONMENT AND DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS LA English DT Article C1 Univ Hamburg, Res Unit Sustainabil & Global Change, Hamburg, Germany. Ctr Marine & Atmospher Sci, Hamburg, Germany. Vrije Univ Amsterdam, Inst Environm Studies, NL-1081 HV Amsterdam, Netherlands. Carnegie Mellon Univ, Dept Engn & Publ Policy, Pittsburgh, PA 15213 USA. RP Tol, RSJ, Univ Hamburg, Res Unit Sustainabil & Global Change, Martinistr 52, Hamburg, Germany. AB Poorer countries are generally believed to be more vulnerable to climate change than richer countries because poorer countries are more exposed and have less adaptive capacity. This suggests that, in principle, there are two ways of reducing vulnerability to climate change: economic growth and greenhouse gas emission reduction. Using a complex climate change impact model, in which development is an important determinant of vulnerability, the hypothesis is tested whether development aid is more effective in reducing impacts than is emission abatement. The hypothesis is barely rejected for Asia but strongly accepted for Latin America and, particularly, Africa. The explanation for the difference is that development (aid) reduces vulnerabilities in some sectors (infectious diseases, water resources, agriculture) but increases vulnerabilities in others (cardiovascular diseases, energy consumption). However, climate change impacts are much higher in Latin America and Africa than in Asia, so that money spent on emission reduction for the sake of avoiding impacts in developing countries is better spent on vulnerability reduction in those countries. CR *IEA GHG, 1999, PH35 LNG ARROW KJ, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, P125 BATJES JJ, 1994, IMAGE 2 HUNDED YEAR BUCHNER B, 2002, CLIM POLICY, V2, P273 CLINE WR, 1992, EC GLOBAL WARMING DARWIN RF, 1995, WORLD AGR CLIMATE CH, V703, P1 EASTERLY W, 2002, ELUSIVE QUEST GROWTH FANKHAUSER S, 2005, RESOUR ENERGY ECON, V27, P1 FRANKHAUSER S, 1995, VALUING CLIMAGE CHAG HAMMITT JK, 1992, NATURE, V357, P315 KANE SM, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P75 KATTENBERG A, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, P285 LEGGETT J, 1992, CLIMATE CHANGE 1992 MAIERREIMER E, 1987, CLIM DYNAM, V2, P63 MARTENS WJM, 1996, CLIMATE RES, V6, P107 MARTENS WJM, 1997, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V35, P145 MENDELSOHN R, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P553 MURRAY CJL, 1996, GLOBAL HLTH STAT NAKICENOVIC N, 2001, IPCC SPECIAL REPORT NAVRUD S, 2001, ENVIRON RESOUR ECON, V20, P305 NORDHAUS WD, 1994, MANAGING GLOBAL COMM SCHELLING TC, 1992, AM ECON REV, V82, P1 SCHELLING TC, 1995, ENERG POLICY, V23, P395 SHINE KP, 1990, CLIMATE CHANGE IPCC, P41 SMITH JB, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, P913 SOHNGEN B, 1996, 9608 RES FUT WASH DC TOL RSJ, 1999, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V41, P351 TOL RSJ, 1999, ENERGY J SPECIAL ISS, P130 TOL RSJ, 1999, ENERGY J, V20, P61 TOL RSJ, 1999, ENVIRON RESOUR ECON, V14, P33 TOL RSJ, 1999, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V9, P221 TOL RSJ, 2001, INTEGRATED ASSESSMEN, V2, P173 TOL RSJ, 2001, POLLUTION ATMOSPHERI, P155 TOL RSJ, 2002, ENERG ECON, V24, P367 TOL RSJ, 2002, ENVIRON RESOUR ECON, V21, P135 TOL RSJ, 2002, ENVIRON RESOUR ECON, V21, P47 TOL RSJ, 2003, FNU32 CTR MAR CLIM R TOL RSJ, 2004, FNU33 HAMB U CTR MAR TOTH FL, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, P601 WEITZMAN ML, 1998, ECONOMETRICA, V66, P1279 NR 40 TC 0 J9 ENVIRON DEV ECON BP 615 EP 629 PY 2005 PD OCT VL 10 GA 979AB UT ISI:000232913400003 ER PT J AU Ali, A TI Climate change impacts and adaptation assessment in Bangladesh SO CLIMATE RESEARCH LA English DT Article C1 SPARRSO, Dhaka 1207, Bangladesh. RP Ali, A, SPARRSO, Dhaka 1207, Bangladesh. AB Bangladesh is likely to be one of the most vulnerable countries in the world to climate change. This paper discusses the possible impacts of climate change in Bangladesh through tropical cyclones, storm surges, coastal erosion and back water effect. The possible increase in cyclone frequency in the Bay of Bengal, lying south of Bangladesh, due to climate change is looked at by analyzing the cyclone data for 119 yr. Both qualitative and quantitative discussions are made on cyclone intensity increase for a sea surface temperature rise of 2 and 4 degreesC. Different scenarios of storm surges under different climate change conditions are developed by using a numerical model of storm surges for the Bay of Bengal. Possible loss of land through beach erosion due to sea level rise on the eastern coast of Bangladesh is examined. Some discussions are also made on the impacts of back water effect due to sea level rise on flood situations in the country. Finally, a few remarks are made on the adaptation options for Bangladesh in the event of climate change. CR *BANGL CLIM CHANG, 1997, ASS VULN AD CLIM CHA *BCAS, 1994, VULN BANGL CLIM CHAN, V1 *BUP, 1994, BANGL GREENH EFF CLI *MCSP, 1992, MULT CYCL SHELT PROG, V11 *MD, 1979, TRACKS STORMS DEPR B ALI A, 1980, 12080 SARC BANG AT E ALI A, 1995, ESTUAR COAST SHELF S, V41, P689 ALI A, 1996, WATER AIR SOIL POLL, V92, P171 ALI A, 1997, J REMOTE SENSING ENV, V1, P85 ALI A, 1997, MAUSAM, V48, P305 ALI A, 1997, MAUSAM, V48, P531 BRUUN P, 1962, J WATERWAYS HARBORS, V88, P117 EMANUEL KA, 1987, NATURE, V326, P483 EMANUEL KA, 1988, AM SCI, V76, P371 FRANK LA, 1985, ADV SPACE RES, V5, P53 GRAY WM, 1979, METEOROLOGY TROPICAL, P155 HEKSTRA GP, 1989, ECOLOGIST, V19, P4 ISLAM SMR, 1999, VULNERABILITY ADAPTA, P71 MAHTAB F, 1989, EFFECT CLIMATE CHANG MCBRIDE JL, 1995, GLOBAL PERSPECTIVES, P63 MILLER BI, 1958, J METEOROL, V15, P184 NEUMANN CJ, 1993, GLOBAL OVERVIEW, CH1 PRAMANIK MAH, 1983, THESIS JAHANGIRNAGAR SAUNDERS MA, 1997, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V24, P1255 WENDLAND WM, 1977, J APPL METEOROL, V16, P477 NR 25 TC 1 J9 CLIMATE RES BP 109 EP 116 PY 1999 PD AUG 27 VL 12 IS 2-3 GA V3096 UT ISI:000171723000008 ER PT J AU Matondo, JI Msibi, KM TI Estimation of the impact of climate change on hydrology and water resources in Swaziland SO WATER INTERNATIONAL LA English DT Article C1 Univ Swaziland, Dept Geog Environm Sci & Planning, Swaziland City, Swaziland. RP Matondo, JI, Univ Swaziland, Dept Geog Environm Sci & Planning, Swaziland City, Swaziland. AB The enhanced greenhouse gas effect is expected to cause high temperature increases globally (1 to 3.5 degrees Celsius), and this will lead to an increase in precipitation in some regions while other regions will experience reduced precipitation. Therefore, countries are engaged in the exercise of evaluating the impact of expected climate change on water resources using General Circulation Models (GCM) and hydrologic models. The WatBall model has been found appropriate for the evaluation of the impact of climate on water resources. The Usutu catchment was selected for the evaluation of the impact of climate change on water resources because it covers two thirds of Swaziland and traverses the four physiographic regions. The results of GCM models (precipitation, temperature, and, thus, potential evapotranspiration) have been used as input to the calibrated WatBall model to forecast streamflow for Usutu catchment for the wet, dry, and average annual conditions for the year 2075. Without taking into consideration population increase and expanded agricultural activities, a comparison between observed and simulated streamflow reveals that all the GCM models are simulating low flows from June to September for the wet years and from May to September for the dry and normal years, The effect of population increase on water resources under climate change has revealed that all the GCM models simulate a water deficit for the winter months (May to September). What can be concluded here is that streamflows will be low during the winter months and the population increase will cause water shortages during the winter months. Therefore, optimal water resources management will be crucial. Adaptation options have been suggested and range from modification of the existing infrastructure to water demand management. CR *IPCC, 1990, CLIM CHANG IPCC SCI WATSON RT, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, V1, P1 *WMO ICSU UNEP, 1989, FULL RANG RESP ANT C ANDERSON MG, 1985, HYDROLOGICAL FORECAS BENOFF R, 1996, VULNERABILITY ADAPTA HUGHES DA, 1994, J HYDROL, V155, P265 KUNZ RP, 1993, THESIS U NATAL PIETE MILLER BA, 1989, P 1989 NAT C HYDR EN PITMAN WN, 1973, 293 U WITW HYDR RES SCHULZE RE, 1984, 63284 WAT RES COMM SCHULZE RE, 2000, 33 ACRU U NAT SCH BI SHAAKE JC, 1989, P 1989 NAT C HYDR EN SINGH VP, 1995, COMPUTER MODELS WATE STRZEPEK KM, 1996, WATER RESOURCES MANA WOOD EF, 1985, REAL TIME FORECASTIN WURBS RA, 1998, WAT INT, V23 YATES D, 1994, COMPARISON WATER BAL NR 17 TC 2 J9 WATER INT BP 425 EP 434 PY 2001 PD SEP VL 26 IS 3 GA 487GC UT ISI:000171864500012 ER PT J AU Berry, PM Rounsevell, MDA Harrison, PA Audsley, E TI Assessing the vulnerability of agricultural land use and species to climate change and the role of policy in facilitating adaptation SO ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE & POLICY LA English DT Article C1 Univ Oxford, Ctr Environm, Environm Change Inst, Oxford OX1 3QY, England. Univ Catholique Louvain, Dept Geog, B-1348 Louvain, Belgium. Silsoe Res Inst, Biomath Grp, Silsoe MK45 4HS, Beds, England. RP Berry, PM, Univ Oxford, Ctr Environm, Environm Change Inst, S Parks Rd,Dyson Perrins Bldg, Oxford OX1 3QY, England. AB The term vulnerability has been used in a variety of contexts, including climate change impact assessment. In this paper those issues relevant to climate change impacts on agriculture and species are discussed. Outputs from models are used to assess the vulnerability of fanners and species to climate and socio-economic change by estimating their sensitivity and capacity to adapt to external factors as a means of identifying what causes the differences in their vulnerability. The results showed that the vulnerability of both farmers and species is dependent on the scenario under consideration. In agriculture, it is the socio-economic scenarios that particularly lead to different patterns of intensification, extensification and abandonment. For species, vulnerability is more related to the climate change scenarios. In both cases, the adaptation options and potential were associated with the different socio-economic futures and policy intervention. The conceptual linking of the two sectors shows that impacts in the agriculture sector and consequent adaptation could have a significant effect on the adaptation potential of species. This demonstrates the importance of cross-sectoral assessments of vulnerability and highlights the importance of sectoral integration in policy development and implementation. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 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RP Byers, JE, Univ New Hampshire, Dept Zool, 46 Coll Rd, Durham, NH 03824 USA. AB Changes in environmental conditions often reverse outcomes of competitive interactions among species. Such context dependency implies that the speed, persistence, and ubiquity of anthropogenic habitat alterations may suddenly put even previously well-adapted native species at a competitive disadvantage with non-native species. That is, anthropogenic disturbance may so drastically alter environments that a native species finds itself in an environment that in key ways is just as novel as it is to a non-indigenous species. Extreme disturbances may thereby erase a native species' prior advantage of local environmental adaptation accrued during its long-term incumbency over evolutionary time. I document examples from two areas of dramatic human alteration of selection regimes - eutrophication and the selective removal of top predators - that support this mechanism. Additionally, I highlight ways in which this mechanism is experimentally testable. Alteration of selection regimes may prove to be a powerful explanation for the enhanced success and impact of biological invasions in our globally disturbed biosphere. 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RP ROSENBERG, NJ, PACIFIC NW LAB, WASHINGTON, DC USA. AB Measures to reduce the use of fossil fuels, suppression of on-farm emissions of methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O), afforestation, and geoengineering 'fixes' have been proposed to mitigate or eliminate greenhouse-forced climate change. These measures will have impacts on agriculture and other sectors of the economy. Mandatory reductions in the use of carbon dioxide (CO2)-emitting fossil fuels and/or carbon taxes will make energy more expensive. Profitability in agriculture will be affected as costs rise for essential activities. Hydropower will compete more strongly with irrigation for available water than it does now. Water for agriculture will be in shorter supply and will be more costly. New technologies and higher levels of management will be needed to reduce agricultural emissions of CH4 and N2O. If not too costly, some of the technologies proposed could actually improve production efficiencies and profitability. Afforestation on a massive scale has been proposed as a means of reducing the accumulation of CO2 in the atmosphere. Afforestation on the requisite scale will create considerable competition with agriculture for good land. Afforesting waste lands and recently deforested lands in the tropics may relieve some pressure for afforestation in the temperate regions. Geoengineering has been proposed as a strategy to counteract inadvertent climate change. Not all of the geoengineering schemes proposed have obvious linkages to agriculture, but some may have. CO2 enrichment of the atmosphere is known to increase photosynthesis, decrease evapotranspiration and improve water-use efficiency. It is difficult to know how severe the effects of climate change will be (and where?) so that we cannot confidently state that they will (or will not) be offset by CO2 enrichment. In this paper we speculate about whether the mitigation measures described above alter comparative advantage of developed and developing country agricultures, how this might happen, and how these changes might affect regional food security. Those mitigation measures that increase demands for water and land make it more difficult for agriculture to compete for these resources pose the greatest threats to global food security. 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RP Matthews, KB, Macaulay Inst, Aberdeen AB15 8QH, Scotland. AB This paper presents a scenario-based analysis of the impacts of Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) reform for upland agriculture using a Welsh case-study. Specifically the paper examines the impacts of the introduction of the single-farm payment (SFP), the modulation of direct payments under Pillar I of the CAP and the increase in agri-environment payments under Pillar II. Three enterprises are examined, upland sheep rearing with lamb finishing, spring- and autumn-calving suckler-cattle with calf rearing. These enterprises are modelled under conditions in 2002/3, 2004/5 and for the reformed CAP in 2005/6. To support this analysis a livestock system model (LSM) was implemented. The model assesses alternative management regimen using a flexible state-transition approach. This simplifies the realisation and parameterisation of potentially complex management regimen. The model tracks fodder requirements to achieve targets based on defined diets. The LSM underpins whole-farm analyses of stocking-rates, labour and other resource requirements and net-farm income. From the case study the paper concludes that the impacts of the introduction of the CAP reform on the financial performance of the systems are small but negative (a net reduction of around 5% in support). The larger reduction in direct payments (15-18%) is partially offset by agri-environment measures. The paper concludes that while SFP encourages a more market-oriented outlook, the adaptive capacity within systems as they stand is very limited. There are a range of possible adaptation strategies, but for the uplands the extensification of cattle systems by reducing stock numbers and cutting back on labour seems most probable. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *AFRC, 1993, EN PROT REQ RUM ADV *DEFRA, 2002, FARM FOODS CONTR SUS *DEFRA, 2004, CAP SINGL PAYM SCHEM *EU COMM, 1999, STRENGTH UN PREP ENL *EU COMM, 2003, IP03893 EU COMM *MAFF, 1992, FEED COMP UK TABL FE *MEAT LIV COMM, 2000, SHEEP YB 2000 *MEAT LIV COMM, 2003, BEEF YB 2003 *SCOTT EFF, 2001, FORW STRAT SCOTT AGR *SCOTT ENT GRAM, 2001, MAK AB FARM SYST MOR *SCOTT EX, 2002, CUST CHANG *WELSH ASS GOV, 2004, CAP REF ONL CHADWICK L, 2002, FARM MANAGEMENT HDB CHADWICK L, 2004, FARM MANAGEMENT HDB FREER M, 1997, AGR SYST, V54, P77 LOEWER OJ, 1998, AGR SYSTEMS MODELING, P301 MATTHEWS K, UNPUB LAND USE POLIC MATTHEWS K, 2003, INTEGRATIVE MODELLIN, V4, P1534 MATTHEWS KB, 2006, AGR SYST, V87, P18 MCCOWN RL, 2002, AGR SYST, V74, P179 RIVINGTON M, IN PRESS AGR SYSTEMS RIVINGTON M, 2004, INT C COMPLEXITY INT SCHWARTZ G, 2003, SCOPING STUDY MODELL STOCKLE CO, 2003, EUR J AGRON, V18, P289 STUTH JW, 2002, AGR SYST, V74, P99 WRIGHT G, 2004, GEOCARTO INT, V18, P13 WRIGHT GG, 2003, COMPUT ELECTRON AGR, V38, P175 NR 27 TC 0 J9 AGR SYST BP 32 EP 61 PY 2006 PD OCT VL 90 IS 1-3 GA 064HQ UT ISI:000239080200002 ER PT J AU Waters, MR Ravesloot, JC TI Disaster or catastrophe: Human adaptation to high- and low-frequency landscape processes - A reply to Ensor, Ensor, and Devries SO AMERICAN ANTIQUITY LA English DT Editorial Material C1 Texas A&M Univ, Dept Anthropol, College Stn, TX 77843 USA. Dept Land & Water Resources, Cultural Resource Management Program, Sacaton, AZ 85247 USA. RP Waters, MR, Texas A&M Univ, Dept Anthropol, College Stn, TX 77843 USA. AB A regional episode of erosion between A.D. 1020 and 1160 coincides with social, political, economic, and demographic changes in the Hohokam culture. This regional erosional event was of such magnitude that it accelerated cultural changes that were already underway. The Ensor et al. (2003) commentary and attempt to layer a number of hypotheses on our original interpretations art fraught with problems. CR BLANTON RE, 1981, ANCIENT MESOAMERICA BUTZER KW, 2002, ARCHAEOLOGY HUMAN EC CRUMLEY CL, 1994, HIST ECOLOGY CULTURA, P1 DARLIG JA, 2002, 67 ANN M SOC AM ARCH DEAN JS, 1988, ANASAZI CHANGING ENV, P25 EISELT BS, 2002, 67 ANN M SOC AM ARCH EISELT BS, 2002, 8 PMIP GIL RIV IND C ENSOR BE, 2003, AM ANTIQUITY, P169 FISH SK, 1992, 56 U AR GUMERMAN GJ, 1991, EXPLORING HOHOKAM PR, P1 HALL SA, 1990, GEOLOGY, V18, P342 HAURY EW, 1945, PEAB MUS AM ARCH ETH HAURY EW, 1976, HOHOKAM DESERT FARME LOENDORF C, 2002, 67 ANN M SOC AM ARCH OLIVERSMITH A, 1999, ANGRY EARTH DISASTER PETERSON K, 2002, 67 ANN M SOC AM ARCH RANDOLPH BG, 2002, 67 ANN M SOC AM ARCH REVESLOOT JC, 2002, 67 ANN M SOC AM ARCH REYCRAFT RM, 2000, 7 MAXW MUS ANTRH RICE GE, 2002, 67 ANN M SOC AM ARCH RITTER DF, 1995, PROCESS GEOMORPHOLOG WATERS MR, 2000, QUATERNARY RES, V54, P49 WATERS MR, 2001, AM ANTIQUITY, V66, P285 WATERS MR, 2001, GEOLOGY, V29, P399 WOODSON KW, 2002, 67 ANN M SOC AM ARCH NR 25 TC 2 J9 AMER ANTIQ BP 400 EP 405 PY 2003 PD APR VL 68 IS 2 GA 669AB UT ISI:000182328800012 ER PT J AU Anderies, JM TI Culture and human agro-ecosystem dynamics: the Tsembaga of New Guinea SO JOURNAL OF THEORETICAL BIOLOGY LA English DT Article C1 Univ British Columbia, Inst Appl Math, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z2, Canada. RP Anderies, JM, Univ British Columbia, Inst Appl Math, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z2, Canada. AB In his classic work, Pigs for the Ancestors, Roy Rappaport proposed that the ritual cycle of the Tsembaga was a mechanism to regulate human population growth and prevent the degradation of the Tsembaga ecosystem. Rappaport provided detailed ethnographic and ecological information to support his claim, but many aspects of Rappaport's model were subsequently criticised. Several simulation models of the Tsembaga ecosystem were constructed to test Rappaport's hypothesis (Shantzis & Behrens, 1973; Foin & Davis, 1984) and evaluate possible alternatives (e.g. Foin & Davis, 1987). The basic conclusions were that it was possible to develop models supporting Rappaport's hypothesis but they were extremely sensitive to parameter choices, and other simpler population control mechanisms might be more likely (Buchbinder, 1977; Foin & Davis, 1987). In this paper, a much simpler dynamical system model for a slash-and-burn agricultural system is developed and applied to the Tsembaga system. By analysing the structure of the model for different physical and socioeconomic conditions, sources of instability and possible stabilising mechanisms are identified. The model indicates that behavioral plasticity (ability to modify behavior over a wide range of behavioral options, quickly and easily) is a fundamental source of instability which is strong enough to nullify more direct stabilising influences such as malnutrition and disease. This suggests that the only possible mechanism to counter to this fundamentally destabilising force may be cultural, i.e. the ritual cycle. Finally, a condition is outlined for which the ritual cycle will produce (local) stability. (C) 1998 Academic Press. 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RP Vincent, K, Univ E Anglia, Sch Environm Sci, Tyndall Ctr Climate Change Res, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. AB Understanding different adaptive capacities is a prerequisite for targeting interventions to reduce the adverse impacts of climate change. Indicators and indices are common tools in this process, but their construction embodies many uncertainties, not least of which is their scale specificity. This paper describes the development of two empirical adaptive capacity indices for use at different scales of analysis: a national index for cross-country comparison in Africa and a household index for cross-household comparison in a village in Limpopo province, South Africa. Explaining the decisions made at each stage of construction illuminates the degree of uncertainty involved when assessing adaptive capacity, and how this uncertainty is compounded when looking across different scales of analysis. It concludes that the central elements of adaptive capacity, based on institutional collective response and the availability of and access to resources, are common at different scales, although the structure of each index is scale-specific. Hence the findings of these apparently irreconcilable scales of analysis converge to demonstrate points of leverage for policy intervention to raise resilience and the capacity to adapt to the risks posed by climate change. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 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Swiss Fed Inst Technol, Res Lab Econ & Management Environm, CH-1015 Lausanne, Switzerland. Grp HEC, Dept Finance, F-78350 Jouy En Josas, France. Int Finance Corp, Foreign Investment Advisory Serv, Washington, DC 20433 USA. World Bank, Washington, DC 20433 USA. RP Baranzini, A, Univ Geneva, Fac Econ & Social Sci, 40 Bld Pont Arve, CH-1211 Geneva 4, Switzerland. AB Recent studies on global warming have introduced the inherent uncertainties associated with the costs and benefits of climate policies and have often shown that abatement policies are likely to be less aggressive or postponed in comparison to those resulting from traditional cost-benefit analyses (CBA). Yet, those studies have failed to include the possibility of sudden climate catastrophes. The aim of this paper is to account simultaneously for possible continuous and discrete damages resulting from global warming, and to analyse their implications on the optimal path of abatement policies. Our approach is related to the new literature on investment under uncertainty, and relies on some recent developments of the real option in which we incorporated negative jumps (climate catastrophes) in the stochastic process corresponding to the net benefits associated with the abatement policies. The impacts of continuous and discrete climatic risks can therefore be considered separately. Our numerical applications lead to two main conclusions: (i) gradual, continuous uncertainty in the global warming process is likely to delay the adoption of abatement policies as found in previous studies, with respect to the standard CBA; however (ii) the possibility of climate catastrophes accelerates the implementation of these policies as their net discounted benefits increase significantly. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. CR 1998, SUISSE REASSURANCES *IPCC, 1990, SCI ASSESSMENT CLIMA WATSON RT, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, V1, P1 *IPCC, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 ARROW KJ, 1990, IPCC REPORT WORKING, P52 BARANZINI A, 1995, 1417 WORLD BANK POL BARONEADESI G, 1987, J FINANC, V42, P301 BATES DS, 1991, J FINANC, V46, P1009 BIRGE JR, 1996, ENERGY J, V17, P79 BLACK F, 1973, J POLITICAL EC, V81, P637 CARRARO C, 1993, J PUBLIC ECON, V52, P309 CHESNEY M, 2002, IN PRESS J EC DYNAMI CHESNEY M, 2002, VALUATION AM OPTION CLINE WR, 1992, EC GLOBAL WARMING DIXIT A, 1992, J ECON PERSPECT, V6, P107 FALK I, 1993, J ENVIRON ECON MANAG, V25, P76 FISCHER BS, 1996, IPCC 2 ASSESSMENT RE, P397 GJERDE J, 1999, RESOUR ENERGY ECON, V21, P289 GOLDEMBERG J, 1996, IPCC 2 ASSESSMENT RE, P17 HANEMANN WM, 1989, J ENVIRON ECON MANAG, V16, P23 KOLSTAD CD, 1994, ENERG POLICY, V22, P771 MADDISON D, 1995, ENERG POLICY, V23, P337 MCDONALD R, 1986, Q J ECON, V101, P707 MUNASINGHE M, 1996, IPCC 2 ASSESSMENT RE, P149 NORDHAUS WD, 1991, AM ECON REV, V81, P146 NORDHAUS WD, 1991, ECON J, V101, P920 NORDHAUS WD, 1993, J ECON PERSPECT, V7, P11 NORDHAUS WD, 1994, MANAGING GLOBAL COMM PEARCE DW, 1996, IPCC 2 ASSESSMENT RE, P180 PECK SC, 1993, RESOUR ENERGY ECON, V15, P71 PINDYCK RS, 1991, J ECON LIT, V29, P1110 PINDYCK RS, 1999, IRREVERSIBILITY TIMI REYNOLDS P, 1999, TIME 0222, P54 SCHELLING TC, 1995, ENERG POLICY, V23, P395 SCHIMMELPFENNIG D, 1995, ENERG ECON, V17, P311 TOL RSJ, 1999, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V41, P351 TSUR Y, 1996, J ECON DYN CONTROL, V20, P1289 YOHE GW, 1996, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V2, P87 ZHANG XL, 1995, MATH COMPUT SIMULAT, V38, P151 NR 39 TC 2 J9 ENERG POLICY BP 691 EP 701 PY 2003 PD JUN VL 31 IS 8 GA 660CC UT ISI:000181815400001 ER PT J AU Sellen, DW TI Nutritional consequences of wealth differentials in East African pastoralists: The case of the Datoga of northern Tanzania SO HUMAN ECOLOGY LA English DT Review C1 Emory Univ, Dept Anthropol, Atlanta, GA 30322 USA. RP Sellen, DW, Emory Univ, Dept Anthropol, 1557 Pierce Dr NE, Atlanta, GA 30322 USA. AB Among African pastoralists evidence that wealth is associated with other measures of household success is scant and the significance of wealth differentials for family welfare remains poorly understood. Predictions that wealth in livestock is associated with increased adequacy of household food supply and with improved child nutrition are tested with longitudinal data on herd size, household composition, food supply, and anthropometric status collected in 1992 for a sample of traditional Datoga households (n=20) living in the Eyasi basin in northern Tanzania. Although a majority subsisted below poverty cutoffs estimated for east African pastoral populations, there was large variation among households in measures of wealth and resource availability. Individuals in relatively wealthy households did not appear to benefit either in terms of adequacy of household food supply or in terms of average growth performance of young children. Theoretical and methodological challenges in the study of the relationship between wealth and health in nomadic pastoralists are discussed. 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ANNU REV NUTR, V6, P495 WATERLOW JC, 1990, AM J CLIN NUTR, V51, P259 WESTERN D, 1986, HUM ECOL, V14, P77 WIDDOWSON EM, 1985, NUTR ADAPTATION MAN, P97 NR 126 TC 0 J9 HUM ECOL BP 529 EP 570 PY 2003 PD DEC VL 31 IS 4 GA 748BG UT ISI:000186841300002 ER PT J AU Sapountzaki, K TI Coping with seismic vulnerability: small manufacturing firms in western Athens SO DISASTERS LA English DT Article C1 Harokopion Univ Athens, Dept Geog, Athens, Greece. RP Sapountzaki, K, Harokopion Univ Athens, Dept Geog, Athens, Greece. AB This paper attempts to contribute to international discourse on the responsibility of macro structures ( economic and political) and private agencies for the production and distribution of vulnerability. It does so by focusing on an individual economic entity, small manufacturing firms (SMFs), in a specific location, western Athens, Greece. By evaluating the losses that SMFs sustained in the earthquake of 7 September 1999, the paper points to variations in vulnerability levels among such firms and highlights the `sources' of vulnerability they confront. Furthermore, the SMF recovery cycle is systematically monitored in parallel with relevant public policies and state reactions to private recovery methods. 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Canadian Forest Prod Canfor, Vancouver, BC V6C 2C1, Canada. Busby & Associates, Vancouver, BC V6B 2Y5, Canada. QuestAir Technol Inc, Burnaby, BC V5J 4R8, Canada. Vancouver Int Airport Author, Commun & Environm Affairs, Richmond, BC V7B 1Y7, Canada. BC Hydro & Power Author, Sustainabil, Vancouver, BC V6B 5R3, Canada. Int Ctr Sustainable Cities, Vancouver, BC V6J 1P2, Canada. RP Robinson, J, Univ British Columbia, Inst Resources Environm & Sustainabil, 2202 Main Mall, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z4, Canada. AB Manifold linkages exist between climate change and sustainable development. Although these are starting to receive attention in the climate exchange literature, the focus has typically been on examining sustainable development through a climate change lens, rather than vice versa. And there has been little systematic examination of how these linkages may be fostered in practice. This paper examines climate change through a sustainable development lens. To illustrate how this might change the approach to climate change issues, it reports on the findings of a panel of business, local government, and academic representatives in British Columbia, Canada, who were appointed to advise the provincial government on climate change policy. The panel found that sustainable development may offer a significantly more fruitful way to pursue climate policy goals than climate policy itself. The paper discusses subsequent climate change developments in the province and makes suggestions as how best to pursue such a sustainability approach in British Columbia and other jurisdictions. 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RP Endfield, GH, Univ Nottingham, Sch Geog, Univ Pk, Nottingham NG7 2RD, England. AB Unusually severe or prolonged drought ranks among the most devastating and calamitous of all extreme climate events, contributing to wildfires, crop failure, livestock death, food shortages and famine. The response of human activities and the natural environment to such historical weather perturbations provides a guide to where the most critical sensitivities to future climate changes may lie (McCarthy et al., 2001, Climatic change 2001: Impact adaptation, and vulnerability', from 3rd Assesment Report of IPCC). The reconstruction of regional climatic histories and investigations of the impacts of - and social response to - extreme droughts in history are thus of crucial significance if we are to understand and anticipate the potential repercussions of future events (Wigley, 1985, Nature 316, 106-107; Grove and Conterio, 1995, Clim. Change 30, 223). Chihuahua, in the arid Northwest of Mexico, is one of the most seriously and frequently drought affected regions of the country (Garcia, 2000, available at www.sequia.edu.mx/proyectos/vulnera.html). Prolonged drought in the 1930s, 1950s and 1990s contributed to water scarcity, harvest failure, illness, livestock disease, abandonment and water conflict and served to highlight the particular vulnerability of agrarian society in this region to climatic variability (Sandoval, 2003, Ingeneria Hidraulica en Mexico 18(2), 133-155). Recent investigations using tree ring analysis have identified several phases of such prolonged drought over the last seven centuries. In this paper we use archival documents to investigate the impacts of such periods in late colonial Chihuahua and to explore how society in the region responded to and coped with them. CR *ISDR, 2002, DROUGHT LIV RISK INT *NOAA, INT TREE RING DAT BA ABOITES L, 1994, BREVE HIST CHIHUAHUA ACUNASOTO R, 2000, AM J TROP MED HYG, V62, P733 ACUNASOTO R, 2002, EMERG INFECT DIS, V8, P360 ALLAN RJ, 1996, NINO SO OSCILLATION ALVAREZ S, 1990, 2 C HIST REG COMP U, P141 BAETHGEN WE, 1997, CLIMATE RES, V9, P1 BALLARD C, 1986, J INTERDISCIPL HIST, V2, P359 BANCROFT HH, 1884, WORKS H HOWE BANCROF, V15 BARRIENDOS M, 1997, HOLOCENE, V7, P105 BERZ G, 1997, P WORKSH IND IND CLI BURNS BT, 1983, THESIS U ARIZONA TUS BUTZER EK, 2003, ANN C ASS AM GEOGR N BUTZER KW, 1997, QUATERN INT, V43, P161 CAMUFFO D, 1992, CLIMATE AD 1500, P143 CAVAZOS T, 1990, INT J CLIMATOL, V10, P377 CHEVALIER F, 1952, FORMACION GRANDES DO CLEAVELAND MK, 2003, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V59, P369 CONDE C, 1997, CLIMATE RES, V9, P17 COOPER D, 1965, EPIDEMIC DIS MEXICO COPE RD, 1994, LIMITS RACIAL DOMINA CRAMAUSSEL C, 1990, 2 C HIST REG COMP U, P115 CRAMAUSSEL C, 1990, PROVINCIA SANTA BARB CURTIN CG, 2002, ENVIRON SCI POLICY, V5, P55 DEARREGUI DL, 1946, DESCRIPCION NUEVA GA DETTINGER MD, 1998, J CLIMATE, V11, P3095 DEVACA NC, 1958, VIAJES VIAJEROS VIAJ, P17 DIAZ SC, 2002, CLIMATE RES, V22, P237 EASTERLIING DR, 2001, B AM METEOROLOGICAL, V81, P417 ENDFIELD GH, 1997, ENVIRON HIST, V3, P255 ENDFIELD GH, 2002, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V92, P727 ENDFIELD GH, 2004, J HIST GEOGR, V30, P249 ESCOBAR DAM, 1940, DESCRIPICION GEOGRAF FLORESCANO E, 1976, ORIGEN DESAROLLO PRO FLORESCANO E, 1980, NEXOS, V32, P9 FLORESCANO E, 1981, ARCH GEN NACION FLORESCANO E, 1995, BREVE HIST SEQUIA ME GARCIA SJ, 2000, ANAL VULNERABILIDAD GARCIAACOSTA V, 1993, RED, V1, P2 GRIFFEN WB, 1979, INDIAN ASSIMILATION GROVE JM, 1983, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V5, P265 GROVE JM, 1995, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V30, P223 HIGGINS RW, 1999, J CLIMATE, V12, P653 HODELL DA, 1995, NATURE, V375, P391 HOUGHTON JT, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 JAUREGUI E, 1976, GEOFISICA INT, V16, P45 JAUREGUI E, 1979, B I GEOGRAFIA UNAM, V9, P39 KARL TR, 1999, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V42, P309 KELLEY JC, 1992, HSIT GEN CHIHUAHUA, V1 KIM TW, 2002, WATER INT, V27, P420 KUNDZEWICZ ZW, 2000, WATER INT, V25, P66 KUTZBACH JE, 1985, NATURE, V317, P130 LADURIE L, 1983, HIST CLIMAT DEPUIS M LAFERRIERE JE, 1992, ECOL FOOD NUTR, V28, P1 LAFORA N, 1939, RELACION VIJAE HIZO LANDSBERG H, 1980, J INTERDISCIPLINARY, V10, P631 LIVERMAN DM, 1993, REGIONS GLOBAL WARMI LIVERMAN DM, 1990, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V80, P49 LIVERMAN DM, 1999, NAT RESOUR J, V39, P99 LOPES MAD, 2001, HIST MEXICANA, V50, P513 MAGANA VO, 1999, IMPACTOS NINO MEXICO MALVIDO E, 1973, HIST MEXICANA, V89, P96 MARR JS, 2000, MED HIST, V44, P341 MARTIN CE, 1996, GOVERNANCE SOC COLON MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 METCALFE SE, 1987, GEOGR J, V153, P211 METCALFE SE, 1997, J PALEOLIMNOL, V17, P155 MEYER WB, 1998, HUMAN CHOICE CLIMATE, P218 MIRANDA J, 1871, COLLECCION DOCUMENTO, V16 NAYLOR TH, 1986, PRESIDIO MILITIA NO NEUMANN SIJ, 1969, REVOLTES INDIENS TAR OHARA SL, 1993, GEOGR J, V159, P51 OHARA SL, 1995, HOLOCENE, V5, P485 OUWENEEL A, 1996, SHADOWS ANAHUAC ECOL QUINN WH, 1987, J GEOPHYS RES-OCEANS, V92, P14449 RILEY JD, 2002, AMERICAS, V58, P355 RIVERA SL, 1999, DEFEND OUR WATER BLO ROMERAL PT, 1937, BIBLIO MEXICANA OBRA, V7 SANDOVAL CAE, 2003, ING HIDRAUL MEX, V18, P133 SANTIAGO M, 1996, J ARIZONA HIST, V37, P283 SCHMIDT RH, 1992, HIST GEN CHIHUAHUA, V1, P47 SIMPSON LB, 1966, MANY MEXICOS TUTINO J, 1986, INSURRECTION REVOLUT WALLEN CC, 1955, GEOGRAFISKA ANN, V37, P51 WEST RC, 1949, IBEROAMERICANA, V30 WIGLEY TM, 1981, CLIMATE HIST WIGLEY TML, 1985, NATURE, V316, P106 YATES PLL, 1981, MEXICOS AGR DILEMMA NR 89 TC 0 J9 CLIMATIC CHANGE BP 391 EP 419 PY 2006 PD APR VL 75 IS 4 GA 046ED UT ISI:000237793300001 ER PT J AU Pennington, DW Potting, J Finnveden, G Lindeijer, E Jolliet, O Rydberg, T Rebitzer, G TI Life cycle assessment Part 2: Current impact assessment practice SO ENVIRONMENT INTERNATIONAL LA English DT Review C1 Commiss European Communities, Joint Res Ctr, Inst Environm & Sustainabil, Soil & Waste Unit, I-21020 Ispra, Italy. Univ Groningen, Ctr Energy & Environm Studies, IVEM, NL-9747 AG Groningen, Netherlands. Royal Inst Technol, Ctr Environm Strategies Res, Fms, KTH, SE-10044 Stockholm, Sweden. TNO, Ind Technol, NL-5600 HE Eindhoven, Netherlands. Swiss Fed Inst Technol, Life Cycle Syst Grp, GECOS, ENAC, CH-1015 Lausanne, Switzerland. RP Potting, J, Commiss European Communities, Joint Res Ctr, Inst Environm & Sustainabil, Soil & Waste Unit, TP 460, I-21020 Ispra, Italy. AB Providing our society with goods and services contributes to a wide range of environmental impacts. Waste generation, emissions and the consumption of resources occur at many stages in a product's life cycle-from raw material extraction, energy acquisition, production and manufacturing, use, reuse, recycling, through to ultimate disposal. These all contribute to impacts such as climate change, stratospheric ozone depletion, photooxidant formation (smog), eutrophication, acidification, toxicological stress on human health and ecosystems, the depletion of resources and noise-among others. The need exists to address these product-related contributions more holistically and in an integrated manner, providing complimentary insights to those of regulatory/process-oriented methodologies. A previous article (Part 1, Rebitzer et al., 2004) outlined how to define and model a product's life cycle in current practice, as well as the methods and tools that are available for compiling the associated waste, emissions and resource consumption data into a life cycle inventory. This article highlights how practitioners and researchers from many domains have come together to provide indicators for the different impacts attributable to products in the life cycle impact assessment (LCIA) phase of life cycle assessment (LCA). (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 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VROM SCHMITZ S, 1999, 14042 ISO SCHWEINLE J, 2001, 202 BFH SEPPALA J, 2002, J IND ECOLOGY, V5, P45 SEPPALA J, 2003, IN PRESS INT J LCA SLEESWIJK AW, 2001, ENVIRON SCI POLLUT R, V8, P1 SOLBERGJOHANSEN B, 1998, THESIS U SURREY GUIL STEEN B, 1999, SYSTEMATIC APPROACH, P4 STEEN B, 1999, SYSTEMATIC APPROACH, P5 STUMM W, 1981, AQUATIC CHEM INTRO E THISSEN UMJ, 1999, 173 U NIJM DEP ENV S TRUSTY WB, 1997, ECOLOGICAL EFFECTS R UCHIDA H, 2002, EC 2002 C P NOV 6 8 VANDENBERG NW, 1999, 152 CML CTR ENV SCI VANEK R, 2002, 4202002943 TNO IND T VOLKWEIN S, 1996, INT J LCA, V1, P182 WEIDEMA BP, 2001, PHYS IMPACTS LAND US WENZEL H, 1997, ENV ASSESSMENT PRODU, V1 NR 144 TC 4 J9 ENVIRON INT BP 721 EP 739 PY 2004 PD JUL VL 30 IS 5 GA 821ZJ UT ISI:000221501800012 ER PT J AU Gallopin, GC TI Linkages between vulnerability, resilience, and adaptive capacity SO GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS LA English DT Article C1 UN, ECLAC, Santiago, Chile. RP Gallopin, GC, UN, ECLAC, Casilla 179 D,Avda Hammarskjold S-N, Santiago, Chile. AB This article uses a systemic perspective to identify and analyze the conceptual relations among vulnerability, resilience, and adaptive capacity within socio-ecological systems (SES). Since different intellectual traditions use the terms in different, sometimes incompatible, ways, they emerge as strongly related but unclear in the precise nature of their relationships. A set of diagnostic questions is proposed regarding the specification of the terms to develop a shared conceptual framework for the natural and social dimensions of global change. Also, development of a general theory of change in SESs is suggested as an important agenda item for research on global change. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *IPCC, 2001, TECHN SUMM CLIM CHAN ADGER WN, 2000, PROG HUM GEOG, V24, P347 ADGER WN, 2006, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V16, P268 ANDERIES JM, 2004, ECOLOGY SOC, V9 ASHBY WR, 1956, INTRO CYBERNETICS BERKES F, 1998, LINKING SOCIAL ECOLO, V1, P1 BUTENIN NV, 1965, ELEMENTS THEORY NONL CARPENTER SR, 1999, CONSERV ECOL, V3, P1 CARPENTER SR, 2001, ECOSYSTEMS, V4, P765 DOBZHANSKY T, 1968, POPULATION BIOL EVOL, P109 FOLKE C, 2002, RESILIENCE SUSTAINAB FOLKE C, 2006, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V16, P253 GALLOPIN G, 2001, INT J SOCIAL SCI, V168, P219 GALLOPIN GC, 1989, INT SOC SCI J, V41, P375 GALLOPIN GC, 1991, INT SOC SCI J, V130, P707 GALLOPIN GC, 2003, EC COMMISSION LATIN, P2 GUNDERSON LH, 2000, ANNU REV ECOL SYST, V31, P425 GUNDERSON LH, 2002, PANARCHY UNDERSTANDI, V1, P1 HAHN W, 1967, STABILITY MOTION HOLLING CS, 1973, ANNUAL REV ECOLOGY S, V4, P1 HOLLING CS, 1985, SCI PRAXIS COMPLEXIT, P217 HOLLING CS, 1986, SUSTAINABLE DEV BIOS, V1, P1 HOLLING CS, 1996, ENG ECOLOGICAL CONST, P31 JANSSEN MA, 2006, GLOBAL ENV CHANGE, V16, P240 JEN E, 2003, COMPLEXITY, V8, P12 KASPERSON JX, 2005, SOCIAL CONTOURS RISK, V2, P245 LUERS AL, 2005, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V15, P214 NICOLIS G, 1977, SELF ORG NONEQUILIBR NICOLIS G, 1989, EXPLORING COMPLEXITY PIMM SL, 1984, NATURE, V307, P321 PRIGOGINE I, 1979, NOUVELLE ALLIANCE ME SCHELLNHUBER HJ, 1998, EARTH SYSTEM ANAL IN SMIT B, 2006, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V16, P282 SMITHERS J, 1997, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V7, P129 THOM R, 1972, STABILITE STRUCTUREL TOMOVIC R, 1963, SENSITIVITY ANAL DYN TU PNV, 1994, DYNAMICAL SYSTEMS IN TURNER BL, 2003, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V100, P8074 VANDERLEEUW SE, 2001, IHDP UPDATE WALKER BH, 2004, ECOLOGY SOC, V9, P5 YOUNG OR, 2005, I DYNAMICS RESILIENC YOUNG OR, 2006, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V16, P304 NR 42 TC 2 J9 GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANGE BP 293 EP 303 PY 2006 PD AUG VL 16 IS 3 GA 073OJ UT ISI:000239752200007 ER PT J AU Tao, F Yokozawa, M Hayashi, Y Lin, E TI Changes in agricultural water demands and soil moisture in China over the last half-century and their effects on agricultural production SO AGRICULTURAL AND FOREST METEOROLOGY LA English DT Article C1 Chinese Acad Agr Sci, Inst Agr Environm & Sustainable Dev, Beijing 100081, Peoples R China. Natl Inst Agroenvironm Sci, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 3058604, Japan. RP Tao, F, Chinese Acad Agr Sci, Inst Agr Environm & Sustainable Dev, Beijing 100081, Peoples R China. AB It has become obvious in recent years that water is the most critical resource for Chinese agricultural ecosystems. Changes in agricultural water demands and soil moisture have significant implications for China's water supply, the potential for drought and flood, and agricultural production. In the studies, we explored the changing trends in agricultural water demands, the changing trends and variability in soil moisture associated with both drought and increased surface runoff in Chinese croplands during the last half-century, and their impacts on agricultural production. We plotted temporal and spatial changes in agricultural water demands, soil moisture, soil-moisture variability, soil-moisture deficit, yield index, and surface runoff on a grid of 0.5degrees resolution. We found a trend toward agricultural water demands increasing, soil drying and significant changes in soil-moisture variability on the North China Plain and the Northeast China Plain. There was a significant decrease in agricultural water demands and a significant increase in soil-moisture levels in Southwest China, and a generally insignificant increase or decrease trend in agricultural water demands and soil-moisture levels in Southeast China. These changes in agricultural water demands and soil-moisture levels had corresponding impacts on soil-moisture deficit, and consequently on agricultural production. Increased surface runoff was found in the mountainous areas of the southwest and northeast, and in some areas along the South Coast. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. CR *CHIN STAT FLOOD C, 1997, FLOOD DROUGHT DIS CH *COMP COMM STAT AT, 1989, AGR ATL CHIN, P34 *FAO, 1992, 46 FAO LAND WAT DEV *FAO, 1992, REP EXP CONS REV FAO MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 *US WAT SECT ASS T, 2000, POT IMP CLIM CHANG V BLACK JN, 1956, ARCH METEOROL GEOPHY, V7, P165 BUDYKO MI, 1956, GIDROMETEOROLOGICHES, P255 CHANG JH, 1970, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V60, P340 DUNNE KA, 1996, INT J CLIMATOL, V16, P841 EVANS TE, 1996, GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANG FEDDEMA JJ, 1998, CLIMATE RES, V10, P127 FENG Q, 1999, AMBIO, V28, P202 GLEICK PH, 1987, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V10, P137 GONG DY, 2000, CLIMATE RES, V16, P51 GREGORY JM, 1997, J CLIMATE, V10, P662 HEILIG GK, 1999, CHINA FOOD CAN CHINA KRON W, 1998, UBERSCHWEMUNGEN CHIN, V12, P739 NASH LL, 1993, EPA230R93009 NEW M, 1999, J CLIMATE, V12, P829 NEW M, 2000, J CLIMATE, V13, P2217 PENMAN HL, 1948, P ROY SOC LOND A MAT, V193, P120 PRESS WH, 1992, NUMERICAL RECIPES FO, P107 QIAN WH, 2001, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V50, P419 STORR D, 1978, COMP DAILY SNOWMELT TAO S, 1991, NDP039 ORNLCDIAC47 THOMAS A, 2000, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V102, P71 WETHERALD RT, 1999, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V43, P495 WILLMOTT CJ, 1985, J CLIMATOL, V5, P589 ZHENG Z, 1994, AEZ ASIA, P79 NR 30 TC 0 J9 AGR FOREST METEOROL BP 251 EP 261 PY 2003 PD SEP 30 VL 118 IS 3-4 GA 724ZA UT ISI:000185517100008 ER PT J AU Abdi, K TI The early development of pastoralism in the Central Zagros Mountains SO JOURNAL OF WORLD PREHISTORY LA English DT Review C1 Dartmouth Coll, Dept Anthropol, Hanover, NH 03755 USA. RP Abdi, K, Dartmouth Coll, Dept Anthropol, 6047 Silsby Hall, Hanover, NH 03755 USA. AB This paper explores the changes in early for is of pastoralism in the West Central Zagros Mountains from village-based herding in the Neolithic period to initial stages in the formation of full-fledged nomadic pastoralism by the Late Chalcolithic period. It has been argued that the initial development of pastoralism in the Central Zagros Mountains should he viewed as an adaptive strategy to a highland environment with limited and dispersed resources in order to supplement a primarily agricultural village-based economy. With expansion of the agricultural regime, the distance to be traveled to pastures by herders became greater, and as a consequence, the organization of labor involved in herding had to be modified to meet the more complex task of moving sizable herds over larger areas. The empirical evidence for the assessment of hypotheses proposed in this paper comes from archaeological fieldwork in the Islamabad Plain in the Zagros Mountains in western Iran, as well as previous archaeological and ethnographic research in the region. 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ZIEGLER C, 1953, KEERAMIK QALA HAGGI ZOHARY M, 1973, GEOBOTANICAL FDN MID NR 198 TC 0 J9 J WORLD PREHIST BP 395 EP 448 PY 2003 PD DEC VL 17 IS 4 GA 813UK UT ISI:000220931800002 ER PT J AU Bernard, SM Ebi, KL TI Comments on the process and product of the health impacts assessment component of the national assessment of the potential consequences of climate variability and change for the United States SO ENVIRONMENTAL HEALTH PERSPECTIVES LA English DT Article C1 Johns Hopkins Univ, Sch Hyg & Publ Hlth, Dept Environm Hlth Sci, Baltimore, MD 21205 USA. EPRI, Palo Alto, CA USA. RP Bernard, SM, Johns Hopkins Univ, Sch Hyg & Publ Hlth, Dept Environm Hlth Sci, 615 N Wolfe St,Room 7041, Baltimore, MD 21205 USA. AB In 1990 Congress formed the U.S. Global Change Research Program and required it to conduct a periodic national assessment of the potential impacts of climate variability and change on all regions and select economic/resource sectors of the United States. Between 1998 and 2000, a team of experts collaborated on a health impacts assessment that formed the basis for the first National Assessment's analysis of the potential impacts of climate on human health. The health impacts assessment was integrated across a number of health disciplines and involved a search for and qualitative expert judgment review of data on the potential links between climate events and population health. Accomplishments included identification of vulnerable populations, adaptation strategies, research needs, and data gaps. Experts, stakeholders, and the public were involved. The assessment is reported in five articles in this issue; a summary was published in the April 2000 issue of Environmental Health Perspectives. The assessment report will enhance understanding of ways human health might be affected by various climate-associated stresses and of the need for further empirical and predictive research. Improved understanding and communication of the significance and inevitability of uncertainties in such an assessment are critical to further research and policy development. 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RP Huigen, MGA, Leiden Univ, NL-2300 RA Leiden, Netherlands. AB This paper reports on the socio-economic effects and coping mechanisms of farm households affected by super typhoon Imbudo in San Mariano, Isabela, the Philippines. Estimations of economic losses are given based on 150 interviews among the rural population. The relative loss per crop as part of the annual household income for yellow corn, banana, and rice were 64%, 24%, and 27%, respectively. Unexpectedly, most farm households did not change their agricultural strategies and continued with "business as usual" (78%). The main explanation for this lack of adaptation is found in the cultural and societal structure of farm households and their traders. This paper concludes with a short-term and long-term vulnerability and resilience analysis for the households, the socio-agricultural system, and the ecological system. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *ACT, 2003, SUP TYPH HITS PHIL 2 *MAN TIM, 2003, ITS FIN HAR DAM RIS *NSO, 2001, PHIL YB CENS 2000 *UNDRO, 1979, DIS PREV MIT, V7 *VIRT INF CTR, 2003, TYPH HAR HITS PHIL BANKOFF G, 1999, PACIFIC REV BANKOFF G, 2003, CULTURES DIS SOC NAT BENSON C, 1997, 99 ODI BENSON C, 2004, DISASTER RISK MANAGE, V4 BENSON C, 2004, MEASURING MITIGATION BLAIKIE PM, 1994, RISK NATURAL HAZARDS, V1, P1 BULL R, 1994, DISASTER EC DISASTER DEGROOT WT, 1992, ENV SCI THEORY CONCE DELNINNO C, 2001, 122 IFPRI DELNINNO C, 2003, WORLD DEV, V31, P1221 EISENSTADT SN, 1981, POLITICAL CLIENTELIS HUIGEN MGA, 2004, J ENVIRON MANAGE, V72, P5 JOVEL R, 1989, EC SOCIAL CONSEQUENC MCGUIGAN C, 2002, POVERTY CLIMATE CHAN OVERMARS KP, 2005, INT J GEOGR INF SYST, V19, P1 PERSSON GA, 2003, SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAI, P209 POLET G, 1991, 3 U LEID RUTTEN R, 2001, J HUMANITIES SOCIAL, V157, P629 TOBIN GA, 1999, ENV HAZARDS, V1, P13 TWIGG J, 2001, 2 BENF GREIG HAZ RES VANDENTOP GM, 1998, THESIS CTR ENV SCI L VANDERWERF I, 1994, 38 U LEID IS STAT U VANWEERD M, 2002, CROCODILES, P97 WILLIAM HS, GERMAN TRAVELERS COR WISNER B, 2001, UN CHRONICLE, V3, P6 ZAPATAMARTI R, 1997, P EXP CONS METH BRUS NR 31 TC 0 J9 WORLD DEVELOP BP 2116 EP 2136 PY 2006 PD DEC VL 34 IS 12 GA 118DI UT ISI:000242921900008 ER PT J AU Kelly, PM Adger, WN TI Theory and practice in assessing vulnerability to climate change and facilitating adaptation SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 Univ E Anglia, Climat Res Unit, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. Univ E Anglia, Sch Environm Sci, Ctr Social & Econ Res Global Environm, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. RP Kelly, PM, Univ E Anglia, Climat Res Unit, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. AB We discuss approaches to the assessment of vulnerability to climate variability and change and attempt to clarify the relationship between the concepts of vulnerability and adaptation. In search of a robust, policy-relevant framework, we define vulnerability in terms of the capacity of individuals and social groups to respond to, that is, to cope with, recover from or adapt to, any external stress placed on their livelihoods and well-being. The approach that we develop places the social and economic well-being of society at the centre of the analysis, focussing on the socio-economic and institutional constraints that limit the capacity to respond. From this perspective, the vulnerability or security of any group is determined by resource availability and by the entitlement of individuals and groups to call on these resources. We illustrate the application of this approach through the results of field research in coastal Vietnam, highlighting shifting patterns of vulnerability to tropical storm impacts at the household- and community-level in response to the current process of economic renovation and drawing conclusions concerning means of supporting the adaptive response to climate stress. Four priorities for action are identified that would improve the situation of the most exposed members of many communities: poverty reduction; risk-spreading through income diversification; respecting common property management rights; and promoting collective security. A sustainable response, we argue, must also address the underlying causes of social vulnerability, including the inequitable distribution of resources. 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Univ Wageningen & Res Ctr, Environm Syst Anal Grp, NL-6700 AA Wageningen, Netherlands. Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res, Dept Global Change & Nat syst, D-14412 Potsdam, Germany. RP Metzger, MJ, Univ Wageningen & Res Ctr, Plant Product Syst Grp, POB 430, NL-6700 AK Wageningen, Netherlands. AB Over the next century, society will increasingly be confronted with the impacts of global change (e.g. pollution, land use changes, and climate change). Multiple scenarios provide us with a range of possible changes in socio-economic trends, land uses and climate (i.e. exposure) and allow us to assess the response of ecosystems and changes in the services they provide (i.e. potential impacts). Since vulnerability to global change is less when society is able to adapt, it is important to provide decision makers with tools that will allow them to assess and compare the vulnerability of different sectors and regions to global change, taking into account exposure and sensitivity, as well as adaptive capacity. This paper presents a method that allows quantitative spatial analyses of the vulnerability of the human-environment system on a European scale. It is a first step towards providing stakeholders and policy makers with a spatially explicit portfolio of comparable projections of ecosystem services, providing a basis for discussion on the sustainable management of Europe's natural resources. 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RP Biersack, A, Univ Oregon, Dept Anthropol, Eugene, OR 97403 USA. AB Lying between the Huh and Paiela peoples of the Papua New Guinea highlands, Mt. Kare, the site of a gold rush from 1988 to 1990, presently inspires millenarian speculations about an imminent cosmic revolution. Mt. Kare was traditionally a ritual site where pigs were sacrificed to Taiyundika, a totemic python, to promote the fertility of plant, animal, and human species. Today it is where gold is mined in pursuit of unprecedented riches and millenarian transformations. Although sacrifices are no longer conducted at Mt. Kare, the python still has some salience for Paielas, who consider the gold to be the flesh of the totemic python. Blending Christianity with traditional cosmology, Paielas interpret the finding of the gold as a millenarian sign. As an ancestral figure who guarantees the continuing fertility of the earth in exchange for pork sacrifices, the python stands at the core of Paiela constructions of nature and humanity's position within it. Paiela totemism is explored for what it can teach us about an indigenous symbolic ecology and how "local knowledge" or a "cognized model" can inflect capital-intensive resource development at a time of ostensible globalization. The ecology of Mt. Kare gold mining must be sensitive to intercultural processes and how global flows (of ideologies, technologies, and capital) are mediated by vernacular constructions. 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RP Smit, B, UNIV GUELPH,DEPT GEOG,GUELPH,ON N1G 2W1,CANADA. AB The implications of climate change for agriculture and food are global concerns, and they are very important for China, The country depends on an agricultural system which has evolved over thousands of years to intensively exploit environmental conditions. The pressures on the resource base are accentuated by the prospect of climate change, This paper synthesizes information from a variety of studies on Chinese agriculture and climate. Historical studies document the impacts of past climate changes and extremes, and the types of adjustments which have occurred, the vulnerability of Chinese agriculture to climate change, Climate change scenarios are assessed relative to the current distribution of agro-climatic regions and systems, Notwithstanding the enhancing effects of warming and elevated CO2 levels, expected moisture deficits and uncertain changes in the timing and frequency of critical conditions indicate that there are serious threats to the stability and adaptability of China's food production system. 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RP Pandey, N, Firest Dept, Jaipur 302005, Rajasthan, India. AB The Kyoto Protocol of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change seeks to achieve climate stability and sustainable development through global cooperation. Even with spectacular advances in climate science, projected economic and health benefits of greenhouse gas mitigation, and presence of all the key elements for an effective treaty in the Kyoto Protocol, climate change negotiations remain inconclusive. Arguably, this is so because a widespread concern on equity is yet to be resolved. Here I reexamine the equity in climate change treaty. Political leadership, scientific community and civil society in several nations have maintained that the democratic norms for climate governance are a prerequisite for crafting a successful climate change treaty. Principle of equal p er capita emission entitlements is now emerging as the key option beyond current impasse. Although not required under the Kyoto Protocol, several developing nations are taking responsible action to mitigate climate change. Principle of equal per capita emission entitlements is a just solution to successfully implement climate treaty aimed at climate change mitigation, adaptation and sustainable development. Without a full and unequivocal commitment to equity and democratic governance by a cohesive humanity, any international climate change treaty will have only limited utility. 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Manchester Metropolitan Univ, Ctr Policy Modelling, Manchester M1 3GH, Lancs, England. EAWAG, Dept Syst Anal Integrated Assessment & Modelling, CH-8600 Dubendorf, Switzerland. RP Downing, TE, Univ Oxford, Environm Change Inst, 1A Mansfield Rd, Oxford OX1 3SZ, England. AB Integrated assessment models (IAMs) have been widely applied to questions of climate change policy-such as the effects of abating greenhouse gas emissions, balancing impacts, adaptation and mitigation costs, understanding processes of adaptation, and evaluating the potential for technological solutions. In almost all cases, the social dimensions of climate policy are poorly represented. Econometric models look for efficient optimal solutions. Decision making perspectives might reflect broadscale cultural theory, but not the diversity of cognitive models in practice. Technological change is often ignored or exogenous, and without understanding of stakeholder strategies for innovation and diffusion. Policy measures are proposed from idealised perspectives, with little understanding of the constraints of individual decision makers. We suggest a set of criteria for IAMs that can be used to evaluate the choice and structure of models with respect to their suitability for understanding key climate change debates. The criteria are discussed for three classes of models-optimising econometric models, dynamic simulation models and a proposed agent-based strategy. A prototype agent-based IAM is reported to demonstrate the usefulness and power of the agent based approach and to indicate concretely how that approach meets the criteria for good IAMs and to complex social issues more generally. 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RP Farbotko, C, Univ Tasmania, Sch Geog & Environm Studies, Private Bag 78, Hobart, Tas 7001, Australia. AB Tuvalu, a place whose image in the 'West' is as a small island state, insignificant and remote on the world stage, is becoming remarkably prominent in connection with the contemporary issue of climate change-related sea-level rise. My aim in this paper is to advance understanding of the linkages between climate change and island places, by exploring the discursive negotiation of the identity of geographically distant islands and island peoples in the Australian news media. Specifically, I use discourse analytic methods to critically explore how, and to what effects, various representations of the Tuvaluan islands and people in an Australian broadsheet, the Sydney Morning Herald, emphasize difference between Australia and Tuvalu. My hypothesis is that implicating climate change in the identity of people and place can constitute Tuvaluans as 'tragic victims' of environmental displacement, marginalizing discourses of adaptation for Tuvaluans and other inhabitants of low-lying islands, and silencing alternative constructions of Tuvaluan identity that could emphasize resilience and resourcefulness. By drawing attention to the problematic ways that island identities are constituted in climate change discourse in the news media, I advocate a more critical approach to the production and consumption of representations of climate change. CR *AUSTR BUR STAT, 2003, MED REL MELB SYDN EX *AUSTR PARL HANS, 2002, SEN TRANSCR *GREENP, TUV WHAT TRUTH SEA L *HEAR ADC, 2005, SYDN MORN HER *NSSD, 2004, NAT SUMM SUST DEV RE *SECR PAC COMM, 2004, PAC ISL POP 2004 *UN DEV PROGR, 1999, PAC HUM DEV REP 1999 *UNFCCC, NAT AD PROGR ACT ALLEN L, 2004, SMITHSONIAN, V35, P44 ANDERSON KJ, 1991, VANCOUVERS CHINATOWN ASHE JW, 1999, NATURAL RESOURCES FO, V23, P209 BALDACCHINO G, 1993, DEV CHANGE, V24, P29 BALDACCHINO G, 2000, LESSONS POLITICAL EC, P1 BALDACCHINO G, 2004, TIJDSCHR ECON SOC GE, V95, P272 BARNETT J, 2001, 9 TYND CTR CLIM CHAN BARNETT J, 2001, WORLD DEV, V29, P977 BATES DC, 2002, POPUL ENVIRON, V23, P465 BESNIER N, 1995, LIT EMOTION AUTHORIT BISHARAT G, 1997, CULTURE POWER PLACE, P203 BRONNIMANN S, 2002, CLIMATE RES, V22, P87 BURGESS J, 1990, T I BRIT GEOGR, V15, P139 CHAMBERS K, 2001, UNITY HEART CULTURE CHANG TC, 2004, GEOGR ANN B, V86, P165 CHURCH JA, 2004, J CLIMATE, V17, P2609 CONNELL J, 1980, CURRENT AFFAIRS B, V56, P27 CONNELL J, 1993, J COMMONW COMP POLIT, V31, P173 CONNELL J, 1999, PACIFIC STUDIES, V22, P1 CONNELL J, 2003, ASIA PACIFIC VIEWPOI, V44, P89 DRIVER F, 1999, INTRO HUMAN GEOGRAPH, P209 DRIVER F, 2000, SINGAPORE J TROP GEO, V21, P1 ESCHENBACH W, 2004, ENERGY ENV, V15, P527 FARBOTKO C, 2005, CLEAN AIR SOC AUSTR FININ G, 2002, E W CTR WORKING PAPE, V15 FRY G, 1997, CONTEMP PACIFIC, V9, P305 GOLDSMITH M, 1985, TRANSFORMATIONS POLY GOLDSMITH M, 2002, EUR ASS SOC ANTHR C GUPTA A, 1997, CULTURE POWER PLACE, P1 HARAWAY DJ, 1991, SIMIANS CYBORGS WOME HARVEY D, 1993, MAPPING FUTURES LOCA, P3 HAUOFA E, 1993, NEW OCEANIA REDISCOV, P2 HAY J, 2000, CLIMATE CHANGE S PAC, P269 HERB GH, 2004, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V94, P140 HUBBARD P, 2002, THINKING GEOGRAPHICA HUNTER JR, 2004, ENERGY ENV, V15, P925 HUQ S, 2003, MAINSTREAMING ADAPTA JORGENSEN M, 2002, DISCOURSE ANAL THEOR JUPP J, 2003, INT REV VICTIMOLOGY, V10, P157 KLOCKER N, 2003, MEDIA INT AUSTR INCO, V109, P71 KNAPMAN B, 2002, EC PUBLIC SECTOR REV LAUTI T, 1997, TURVALU STATEMENT PR LEWIS J, 1989, ENVIRONMENTALIST, V9, P269 LOXLEY D, 1990, PROBLEMATIC SHORES L MACDONALD B, 1975, FUTURE GILBERT ELLIC MACDONALD B, 1982, CINDERELLAS EMPIRE H MALKKI L, 1992, CULT ANTHROPOL, V7, P24 MARKWICK M, 2001, GEOGRAPHY 1, V86, P37 MARTIN DG, 2000, URBAN GEOGR, V21, P380 MASSEY D, 1993, MAPPING FUTURES LOCA, P59 MCCALL G, 1994, J PACIFIC SOC, V17, P1 MCCALL G, 1996, GEOGR Z, V84, P74 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 MELLOR CS, 2003, PACIFIC EC B, V18, P20 PARISI P, 1994, URBAN GEOGR, V15, P376 PERNETTA J, 1990, UNEP REGIONAL SEAS R, V128 PRASAD N, 2004, WORLD ECON, V5, P41 RALSTON H, 2004, CLIMATE CHANGE CHALL REUTERS, 2005, TSUNAMI DAMAGE GIVES RICHARDSON JE, 2001, DISCOURSE SOC, V12, P143 ROYLE SA, 2001, GEOGRAPHY ISLANDS SM SACK RD, 1997, HOMO GEOGRAPHICUS FR SAID E, 1978, ORIENTALISM SAXTON A, 2003, MEDIA INT AUSTR INCO, V109, P109 SEM G, 1996, COASTAL VULNERABILIT SHIELDS R, 1991, PLACES MARGIN ALTERN SLATTERY K, 2003, MEDIA INT AUSTR INCO, V109, P93 SOPOANGA S, 2003, 58 UN GEN ASS STAKE RE, 2000, HDB QUALITATIVE RES, P435 TESFAGHIORGHIS H, 1994, 941 AUSTR NAT U NAT THOMPSON JB, 1995, MEDIA MODERNITY SOCI TOFA M, 2004, 59 UN GEN ASS TOLOA S, 2004, AID WATCH FRIENDS EA VANDIJK TA, 1988, NEWS DISCOURSE WALLWORK J, 2004, BRIT J SOC PSYCHOL 1, V43, P21 NR 83 TC 1 J9 GEOGR ANN SER B-HUMAN GEOGR BP 279 EP 293 PY 2005 VL 87B IS 4 GA 001PL UT ISI:000234548700004 ER PT J AU Easterling, WE Apps, M TI Assessing the consequences of climate change for food and forest resources: A view from the IPCC SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 Penn State Univ, Dept Geog, University Pk, PA 16802 USA. Pacific Forestry Ctr, Canadian Forest Serv, Nat Resources Canada, Victoria, BC, Canada. RP Easterling, W, Penn State Univ, Dept Geog, University Pk, PA 16802 USA. AB Important findings on the consequences of climate change for agriculture and forestry from the recently completed Third Assessment Report (TAR) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) are reviewed, with emphasis on new knowledge that emerged since the Second Assessment Report (SAR). The State-Pressure-Response-Adaptation model is used to organize the review. The major findings are: Constant or declining food prices are expected for at least the next 25 yr, although food security problems will persist in many developing countries as those countries deal with population increases, political crisis, poor resource endowments, and steady environmental degradation. Most economic model projections suggest that low relative food prices will extend beyond the next 25 yr, although our confidence in these projections erodes farther out into the 21st century. Although deforestation rates may have decreased since the early 1990s, degradation with a loss of forest productivity and biomass has occurred at large spatial scales as a result of fragmentation, non-sustainable practices and infrastructure development. According to United Nations estimates, approximately 23% of all forest and agricultural lands were classified as degraded over the period since World War II. At a worldwide scale, global change pressures (climate change, land-use practices and changes in atmospheric chemistry) are increasingly affecting the supply of goods and services from forests. The most realistic experiments to date - free air experiments in an irrigated environment - indicate that C-3 agricultural crops in particular respond favorably to gradually increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations (e.g., wheat yield increases by an average of 28%), although extrapolation of experimental results to real world production where several factors (e.g., nutrients, temperature, precipitation, and others) are likely to be limiting at one time or another remains problematic. Moreover, little is known of crop response to elevated CO2 in the tropics, as most of the research has been conducted in the mid-latitudes. Research suggests that for some crops, for example rice, CO2 benefits may decline quickly as temperatures warm beyond optimum photosynthetic levels. However, crop plant growth may benefit relatively more from CO2 enrichment in drought conditions than in wet conditions. The unambiguous separation of the relative influences of elevated ambient CO2 levels, climate change responses, and direct human influences (such as present and historical land-use change) on trees at the global and regional scales is still problematic. In some regions such as the temperate and boreal forests, climate change impacts, direct human interventions (including nitrogen-bearing pollution), and the legacy of past human activities (land-use change) appear to be more significant than CO2 fertilization effects. This subject is, however an area of continuing scientific debate, although there does appear to be consensus that any CO2 fertilization effect will saturate (disappear) in the coming century. Modeling studies suggest that any warming above current temperatures will diminish crop yields in the tropics while up to 2-3 degrees C of warming in the mid-latitudes may be tolerated by crops, especially if accompanied by increasing precipitation. The preponderance of developing countries lies in or near the tropics; this finding does not bode well for food production in those countries. Where direct human pressures do not mask them, there is increasing evidence of the impacts of climate change on forests associated with changes in natural disturbance regimes, growing season length, and local climatic extremes. Recent advances in modeling of vegetation response suggest that transient effects associated with dynamically responding ecosystems to climate change will increasingly dominate over the next century and that during these changes the global forest resource is likely to be adversely affected. The ability of livestock producers to adapt their herds to the physiological stress of climate change appears encouraging due to a variety of techniques for dealing with climate stress, but this issue is not well constrained, in part because of the general lack of experimentation and simulations of livestock adaptation to climate change. Crop and livestock farmers who have sufficient access to capital and technologies should be able to adapt their farming systems to climate change. Substantial changes in their mix of crops and livestock production may be necessary, however, as considerable costs could be involved in this process because investments in learning and gaining experience with different crops or irrigation. Impacts of climate change on agriculture after adaptation are estimated to result in small percentage changes in overall global income. Nations with large resource endowments (i.e., developed countries) will fare better in adapting to climate change than those with poor resource endowments (i.e., developing countries and countries in transition, especially in the tropics and subtropics) which will fare worse. This, in turn, could worsen income disparities between developed and developing countries. Although local forest ecosystems will be highly affected, with potentially significant local economic impacts, it is believed that, at regional and global scales, the global supply of timber and non-wood goods and services will adapt through changes in the global market place. However, there will be regional shifts in market share associated with changes in forest productivity with climate change: in contrast to the findings of the SAR, recent studies suggest that the changes will favor producers in developing countries, possibly at the expense of temperate and boreal suppliers. Global agricultural vulnerability is assessed by the anticipated effects of climate change on food prices. Based on the accumulated evidence of modeling studies, a global temperature rise of greater than 2.5 degrees C is likely to reverse the trend of falling real food prices. This would greatly stress food security in many developing countries. 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RP LEWANDROWSKI, JK, USDA,ECON RES SERV,DIV RESOURCE & TECHNOL,1301 NEW YORK AVE NW,WASHINGTON,DC 20005. AB The view that the agricultural sector could largely offset any negative impacts of climate change by altering production practices assumes the government will not create disincentives for farmers to adapt. U.S. farm programs, however, often discourage such obvious adaptations as switching crops, investing in water conserving technologies, and entry or exit. We outline a simple portfolio model describing producer decision making: we then use this framework to assess how specific US. farm programs might affect adaption to climate change. Three future climate scenarios are considered and in each the present structure of U.S. farm programs discourages adaptation. CR 1983, BUDGET US GOVT 1986, EC REPORT PRESIDENT, P137 1989, EPA2300589050 REP ADAMS RM, 1988, W J AGR EC, V13, P348 ARTHUR LM, 1988, W J AGR EC, V13, P216 BABCOCK B, 1986, CHOICES, P18 BORRELL B, 1987, US SUGAR POLICY ITS CROWDER B, 1990, AGR INFORMATION B US, V592 DUDEK DJ, 1989, AGR FORESTRY GLOBAL, P205 EASTERLING WE, 1989, GREENHOUSE WARMING A FAMA EF, 1976, F FINANCE HANSEN J, 1988, J GEOPHYS RES, V93, P9341 HANSEN JE, 1989, MODELING GREENHOUSE HILLEL D, 1989, RES B MASS AGR EXP S, V724 KANE SM, 1992, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V21, P17 LEWANDROWSKI JK, 1991, P GLOBAL CHANGE EC I MCCORMICK I, 1989, J SOIL WATER CONSERV, V44, P379 MEARNS LO, 1984, J CLIM APPL METEOROL, V23, P1601 MOORE MR, 1991, WATER RESOUR RES, V27, P145 POLLACK SL, 1991, USDA AIB624 EC RES S RAWLINS SL, 1989, AGR FORESTRY GLOBAL, P228 ROBISON LJ, 1987, COMPETITIVE FIRMS RE ROSENBERG NJ, 1989, AGR FORESTRY GLOBAL, P180 ROSENZWEIG C, 1985, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V7, P367 SAMUELSON PA, 1947, F EC ANAL SILBERBERG E, 1978, STRUCTURE EC MATH AN WARD JR, 1989, FARMING GREENHOUSE W WILKS DS, 1988, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V13, P19 NR 28 TC 20 J9 CLIMATIC CHANGE BP 1 EP 20 PY 1993 PD JAN VL 23 IS 1 GA KK227 UT ISI:A1993KK22700002 ER PT J AU Perrings, C TI The economics of abrupt climate change SO PHILOSOPHICAL TRANSACTIONS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY OF LONDON SERIES A-MATHEMATICAL PHYSICAL AND ENGINEERING SCIENCES LA English DT Article C1 Univ York, Contact Environm Dept, York YO10 5DD, N Yorkshire, England. RP Perrings, C, Univ York, Contact Environm Dept, York YO10 5DD, N Yorkshire, England. AB The US National Research Council defines abrupt climate change as a change of state that is sufficiently rapid and sufficiently widespread in its effects that economies are unprepared or incapable of adapting. This may be too restrictive a definition, but abrupt climate change does have implications for the choice between the main response options: mitigation (which reduces the risks of climate change) and adaptation (which reduces the costs of climate change). The paper argues that by (i) increasing the costs of change and the potential growth of consumption, and (ii) reducing the time to change, abrupt climate change favours mitigation over adaptation. Furthermore, because the implications of change are fundamentally uncertain and potentially very high, it favours a precautionary approach in which mitigation buys time for learning. Adaptation-oriented decision tools, such as scenario planning, are inappropriate in these circumstances. Hence learning implies the use of probabilistic models that include socioeconomic feedbacks. 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Univ Calif Santa Barbara, Bren Sch Environm Sci & Management, Santa Barbara, CA 93106 USA. RP Beighley, RE, Univ Calif Santa Barbara, Inst Marine Sci, Santa Barbara, CA 93106 USA. AB To investigate the impacts of urbanization and climatic fluctuations on stream flow magnitude and variability in a Mediterranean climate, the HEC-HMS rainfall/runoff model is used to simulate streamflow for a 14-year period (October 1, 1988, to September 30, 2002) in the Atascadero Creek watershed located along the southern coast of California for 1929, 1998, and 2050 (estimated) land use conditions (8, 38 and 52 percent urban, respectively). The 14-year period experienced a range of climatic conditions caused mainly by El Nino-Southern Oscillation variations. A geographic information system is used to delineate the watershed and parameterize the model, which is calibrated using data from two streamflow and eight rainfall gauges. Urbanization is shown to increase peak discharges and runoff volume while decreasing streamflow variability. In all cases, the annual and 14-year distributions of streamflow are shown to be highly skewed, with the annual maximum 24 hours of discharge accounting for 22 to 52 percent of the annual runoff and the maximum ten days of discharge from an average El Nino year producing 10 to 15 percent of the total 14-year discharge. For the entire period of urbanization (1929 to 2050), the average increase in annual maximum discharges and runoff was 45 m(3)/s (300 percent) and 15 cm (350 percent), respectively. Additionally, the projected increase in urbanization from 1998 to 2050 is half the increase from 1929 to 1998; however, increases in runoff (22 m(3)/s and 7 cm) are similar for both scenarios because of the region's spatial development pattern. CR *CADOF, 2001, INT COUNT POP PROJ S *NOAA, 2001, WR267 NWS NOAA US DE *NRCS, 1986, URB HYDR SMALL WAT *NRCS, 1995, USDA MISC PUBL, V1527 *SBCPD, 2000, SANT BARB COUNT 2030 *USACE, 2000, HEC HMS TECHN REF MA *USGS, 1999, 10699 USGS ANDERSON JR, 1976, 964 US GEOL SURV BARNES HH, 1967, 1849 US GEOL SURV BEIGHLEY RE, 2002, J HYDROL ENG, V7, P27 CANDAU J, 2002, THESIS U CALIFORNIA CHOW VT, 1959, OPEN CHANNEL HYDRAUL CLARKE KC, 1997, ENVIRON PLANN B, V24, P247 DALY C, 1994, J APPL METEOROL, V33, P140 FIELD CB, 1999, CONFRONTING CLIMATE JENSON SK, 1988, PHOTOGRAMM ENG REMOT, V54, P1593 KIM J, 2002, J CLIMATE, V14, P1926 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 MOGLEN GE, 2000, ASCE J HYDROLOGIC EN, V5, P190 MONTEVERDI J, 1997, 9737 NAT OC ATM ADM OCALLAGHAN JF, 1984, COMPUT VISION GRAPH, V28, P323 OLIVERA F, 2001, J HYDROL ENG, V6, P524 PINOL J, 1997, HYDROL PROCESS, V11, P1287 RAWLS WJ, 1983, J HYDRAUL ENG-ASCE, V109, P62 RIBOLZI O, 2000, J HYDROL, V233, P242 SMITH CA, 2000, INT J CLIMATOL, V20, P1543 TARBOTON DG, 1991, HYDROL PROCESS, V5, P81 VIESSMAN W, 1977, INTRO HYDROLOGY NR 28 TC 0 J9 J AM WATER RESOUR ASSOC BP 1419 EP 1433 PY 2003 PD DEC VL 39 IS 6 GA 765BL UT ISI:000188247200008 ER PT J AU Henry, B Mitchell, C Cowie, A Woldring, O Carter, J TI A regional interpretation of rules and good practice for greenhouse accounting: northern Australian savanna systems SO AUSTRALIAN JOURNAL OF BOTANY LA English DT Article C1 Cooperat Res Ctr Greenhouse Accounting, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia. Queensland Dept Nat Resources & Mines, Indooroopilly, Qld 4068, Australia. New S Wales Dept Primary Ind, Beecroft, NSW 2119, Australia. New S Wales Greenhouse Off, Sydney, NSW 2001, Australia. RP Henry, B, Cooperat Res Ctr Greenhouse Accounting, GPO Box 475, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia. AB Land-use change, particularly clearing of forests for agriculture, has contributed significantly to the observed rise in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration. Concern about the impacts on climate has led to efforts to monitor and curtail the rapid increase in concentrations of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Internationally, much of the current focus is on the Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Although electing to not ratify the Protocol, Australia, as a party to the UNFCCC, reports on national greenhouse gas emissions, trends in emissions and abatement measures. In this paper we review the complex accounting rules for human activities affecting greenhouse gas fluxes in the terrestrial biosphere and explore implications and potential opportunities for managing carbon in the savanna ecosystems of northern Australia. Savannas in Australia are managed for grazing as well as for cultural and environmental values against a background of extreme climate variability and disturbance, notably. re. Methane from livestock and non-CO2 emissions from burning are important components of the total greenhouse gas emissions associated with management of savannas. International developments in carbon accounting for the terrestrial biosphere bring a requirement for better attribution of change in carbon stocks and more detailed and spatially explicit data on such characteristics of savanna ecosystems as. re regimes, production and type of fuel for burning, drivers of woody encroachment, rates of woody regrowth, stocking rates and grazing impacts. The benefits of improved biophysical information and of understanding the impacts on ecosystem function of natural factors and management options will extend beyond greenhouse accounting to better land management for multiple objectives. 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RP West, P, Columbia Univ Barnard Coll, Dept Anthropol, New York, NY 10027 USA. AB In this article, I argue for placing the politics of translation and theories of value and spatial production at the center of environmental anthropology. For the past ten years, the Gimi-speaking peoples living in Maimafu village, Papua New Guinea, have taken part in an integrated conservation and development project attempting to foster a local system of valuing "nature" by tying biological diversity to economic markets through the creation of "eco-enterprises." However, the project fails to consider how Gimi produce, theorize, transmit, and express knowledge. Using ethnographic material concerned with hunting and song composition, I show that Gimi under-stand their forests to be part of a series of transactive dialectical relationships that work to produce identity and space. I also demonstrate that, as part of this project, Gimi social relations with their forests have been translated in ways that fit their beliefs into generic and easily understandable categories. This has been detrimental to the conservation project and it is politically problematic for an engaged environmental anthropology. 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RP Motha, RP, USDA, Washington, DC 20250 USA. AB Climate is one of the most important factors determining the sustainability of agricultural production systems. More emphasis must be placed on understanding the influence of changing climate conditions on sustainable agricultural systems, given the increasing limitations of the natural resource base. Agrometeorologists can play a leading role in bridging the gaps between the diverse multi-disciplinary fields of science, by reaching out to farmers, extension service personnel, and the agricultural business community. The farming community must cope with issues of climate variability and climate change, and, the challenge for agricultural meteorologists is to develop a coordinated national agricultural weather policy to assist agriculture as it deals with these issues. Agricultural weather policy must be formulated so that proactive long-term preparedness activities are strengthened to ensure agricultural sustainability and to preserve natural resources. Preparedness must be the essential foundation of an agricultural weather policy that builds upon mitigation measures and adaptation strategies to cope with climate variability and climate change as it affects agriculture, forestry, rangelands, and fisheries. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. CR *CLIM CHANG, 2001, IMP AD VULN 2001 *EC RES SEV, 1996, NAT ADJ CLIM CHANG N *FOOD AGR ORG UN, 2002, WORLD FOOD SUMM 5 YE *INT FOOD POL RES, 2000, FUT HARV CONS GROUP *US DROUGHT POL CO, 2000, FIN REP USDA ALEXANDRATOS N, 1995, WORLD AGR 2010 FAO S BLACKIE MJ, 1987, ACCELERATING FOOD PR DARWIN RF, 2001, USDA EC RES SERVICE, V765 FEENSTRA G, 1997, IS SUSTAINABLE AGR FISCHER G, 2002, CLIMATE CHANGE AGR V HENSEN R, 1999, WEATHERWISE, V52, P14 LUTZ W, 1996, FUTURE POPULATION WO MCCRACKEN JA, 1990, GATEKEEPER SERIES IN, V6 OLDEMAN RL, 1991, WORLD MAP STATUS HUM ORAM PA, 1989, SENSITIVITY AGR PROD PARRY ML, 1990, CLIMATE CHANGE WORLD PINGALI P, 1994, AGR TECHNOLOGY POLIC REID WV, 2004, BRIDGING SCI POLICY RIEBSAME WE, 1990, DROUGHT NATURAL RESO SALINGER MJ, 2000, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V103, P167 SINHA SK, 1989, CLIMATE FOOD SECURIT SIVAKUMAR MVK, 2000, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V103, P11 NR 22 TC 1 J9 AGR FOREST METEOROL BP 303 EP 313 PY 2007 PD FEB 12 VL 142 IS 2-4 GA 138SG UT ISI:000244382000019 ER PT J AU Bijlsma, L TI Climate change and the management of coastal resources SO CLIMATE RESEARCH LA English DT Article C1 Minist Transport Publ Works & Water Management, Coastal Zone Management Ctr, Natl Inst Coastal & Marine Management, NL-2500 EX The Hague, Netherlands. RP Bijlsma, L, Minist Transport Publ Works & Water Management, Coastal Zone Management Ctr, Natl Inst Coastal & Marine Management, POB 20907, NL-2500 EX The Hague, Netherlands. AB In early 1996 the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) presented its Second Assessment Report 1995. In this paper some of the IPCC conclusions are discussed in the light of possible impacts on coastal resources and with respect to adaptation possibilities in coastal areas. It is concluded that present developments and trends in coastal areas are aggravating future impacts of climate change. It is also concluded that strengthening integrated coastal zone management efforts is the vehicle for improving the present day situation while at the same time accounting for future threats, which climate change is. CR 1993, WORLD COAST C *IPCC, 1996, 2 ASS REP CLIM CHANG *MIN AGR, 1995, NETH COAST MAR BIOD *UK DEP ENV, 1996, REV POT EFF CLIM CHA, P13 *UNEP WMO, 1992, UN FRAM CONV CLIM CH *WRI, 1995, COASTL RISK IND POT PEERBOLTE EB, 1991, IMPACTS SEA LEVEL RI NR 7 TC 1 J9 CLIMATE RES BP 47 EP 56 PY 1997 PD DEC 29 VL 9 IS 1-2 GA ZD200 UT ISI:000072661400009 ER PT J AU Burton, I TI Vulnerability and adaptive response in the context of climate and climate change SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 ENVIRONM CANADA,ATMOSPHER ENVIRONM SERV,DOWNSVIEW,ON,CANADA. RP Burton, I, UNIV TORONTO,INST ENVIRONM STUDIES,ENVIRONM ADAPTAT RES GRP,TORONTO,ON,CANADA. AB The paper explores the distinction between climate and climate change. Adaptation to current climate variability has been proposed as an additional way to approach adaptation to long-term climate change. In effect improved adaptation to current climate is a step in preparation for longer term climate change. International programs of research and assessment are separately organized to deal with natural disasters and climate change. There is no scientific concensus so far, that extreme events have changed in frequency on a world-wide basis, although some regional changes have occured. It is extremely unlikely that significant shifts in the means of weather distrbutions will take place without shifts in the tails. In some situations it may make more sense to focus on adaptation to extreme events and the tails of distributions. In other circumstances adaptation to the norms is the logical focus. The relationship between normal climate and climate change is examined in terms of single and complex variables and phenomena. It is proposed that the research communities studying adaptation to extreme events and adaptation to climate change work more closely together, perhaps in a newly organized joint research program. CR *US NAT AC SCI ENG, 1992, POL IMPL GREENH WARM, P520 ANDERSON M, 1991, MANAGING NATURAL DIS, P17 BURTON I, 1964, NAT RESOUR J, V3, P412 BURTON I, 1978, ENV HAZARD, V1, P1 BURTON I, 1996, ADAPTING CLIMATE CHA, P55 HERBERT D, 1995, UNPUB ESTIMATED COST KREIMER A, 1991, MANAGING NATURAL DIS, P10 MCCULLOCH J, 1995, P WORKSH IMPR RESP A, P3 SMIT B, 1993, ADAPTATION CLIMATE V, P7 WIGLEY TML, 1985, NATURE, V316, P106 YAZICI DZ, 1995, IMPACT CLIMATE COST NR 11 TC 10 J9 CLIMATIC CHANGE BP 185 EP 196 PY 1997 PD MAY-JUN VL 36 IS 1-2 GA XH635 UT ISI:A1997XH63500013 ER PT J AU Wassmann, R Hien, NX Hoanh, CT Tuong, TP TI Sea level rise affecting the Vietnamese Mekong Delta: Water elevation in the flood season and implications for rice production SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe, Inst Meteorol & Climate Res IMK IFU, D-82467 Garmisch Partenkirchen, Germany. SIWRP, Thanh Pho Ho Chi Minh, Vietnam. IWMI, Colombo, Sri Lanka. Int Rice Res Inst, Los Banos, Philippines. RP Wassmann, R, Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe, Inst Meteorol & Climate Res IMK IFU, Kreuzeckbahnstr 19, D-82467 Garmisch Partenkirchen, Germany. AB In this study, we assessed the impact of sea level rise, one of the most ascertained consequences of global climate change, for water levels in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta (VMD). We used a hydraulic model to compute water levels from August to November-when flooding is presently critical-under sea level rise scenarios of 20 cm (= Delta20) and 45 cm (= Delta45), respectively. The outputs show that the contour lines of water levels will be shifted up to 25 km (Delta20) and 50 km (Delta45) towards the sea due to higher sea levels. At the onset of the flood season ( August), the average increment in water levels in the Delta is 14.1 cm (Delta20) and 32.2 cm (Delta45), respectively. At the peak of the flood season ( October), high discharge from upstream attenuates the increment in water level, but average water level rise of 11.9 cm (Delta20) and 27.4 cm (Delta45), respectively, still imply a substantial aggravation of flooding problems in the VMD. GIS techniques were used to delineate areas with different levels of vulnerability, i.e., area with high (2.3 mio ha = 60% of the VMD), medium (0.6 mio ha = 15%) and low (1 mio ha = 25%) vulnerability due to sea level rise. Rice production will be affected through excessive flooding in the tidally inundated areas and longer flooding periods in the central part of the VMD. These adverse impacts could affect all three cropping seasons, Mua (main rainfed crop), Dong Xuan (Winter-Spring) and He Thu (Summer-Autumn) in the VMD unless preventive measures are taken. CR *ADB, 1994, CLIM CHANG AS VIETN, P103 *DELFT HYDR, 1989, SAFLOW MAN PROGR CAL *ESSA STOTH PEG WA, 1992, WAT CONTR PROJ QUAN *IPCC, 2000, EM SCEN 2000 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 *KOICA KARICO, 2000, FLOOD CONTR PLANN DE, V1 *NEDECO, 1991, 1 NEDECO WORLD BANK, V2 *NEDECO, 1991, 2 NEDECO WORLD BANK *NEDECO, 1992, THEM STUD MAN WAT RE, V4 *NEDECO, 1993, THEM STUD MAN WAT RE, V2 *SOGREAH, 1963, MOD MATH DELT MEK ALI A, 1996, WATER AIR SOIL POLL, V92, P171 DONG TD, 2000, P WORKSH HYDR ENV MO, P236 DUONG LT, 1994, J FAC AGR KYUSHU U, V39, P1 HASHIMOTO TR, 2001, 4 U SYDN AUSTR MEK R HOUGHTON JT, 1990, SCI ASSESSMENT CLIMA KHUE NN, 1986, MODELLING TIDAL PROP KHUE NN, 1991, VIETNAM RIVER SYSTEM MINH HNT, 2002, J FAC AGR KYUSHU U, V47, P221 MOYA TB, 1998, GLOB CHANGE BIOL, V4, P645 NICHOLLS RJ, 1999, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V9, PS69 PEREZ RT, 1996, WATER AIR SOIL POLL, V92, P137 SANH NV, 1998, DEV FARMING SYSTEMS, P17 SMITH JB, 2001, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V50, P1 TOL RSJ, 1998, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V8, P109 TUONG NT, 2001, SEA LEVEL MEASUREMEN VANDIEPEN CA, 1989, SOIL USE MANAGE, V5, P16 WARRICK RA, 1996, IMPLICATIONS CLIMATE WASSMANN R, 2000, NUTR CYCL AGROECOSYS, V58, P13 XUAN VT, 1998, DEV FARMING SYSTEMS ZEIDLER RB, 1997, OCEAN COAST MANAGE, V37, P41 NR 31 TC 0 J9 CLIMATIC CHANGE BP 89 EP 107 PY 2004 PD SEP VL 66 IS 1-2 GA 857PN UT ISI:000224130900008 ER PT J AU Janssen, MA Ostrom, E TI Resilience, vulnerability, and adaptation: A cross-cutting theme of international human dimensions programme on global environmental change SO GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS LA English DT Editorial Material C1 Arizona State Univ, Sch Human Evolut & Social Change, Tempe, AZ 85287 USA. Arizona State Univ, Sch Comp & Informat, Tempe, AZ 85287 USA. Indiana Univ, Workshop Polit Theory & Policy Anal, Bloomington, IN 47408 USA. Indiana Univ, Ctr Study Inst Populat & Environm Change, Bloomington, IN 47408 USA. RP Janssen, MA, Arizona State Univ, Sch Human Evolut & Social Change, Box 872402, Tempe, AZ 85287 USA. CR ADGER WN, 2005, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V15, P75 ADGER WN, 2006, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V16, P268 BERKES F, 1998, LINKING SOCIAL ECOLO, V1, P1 FOLKE C, 2006, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V16, P253 GALLOPIN GC, 1989, INT SOC SCI J, V41, P375 GALLOPIN GC, 2006, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V16, P293 HOLLING CS, 1973, ANNUAL REV ECOLOGY S, V4, P1 JANSSEN MA, 2006, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V16, P240 SMIT B, 2006, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V16, P282 TURNER BL, 2003, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V100, P8080 YOUNG OR, 2006, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V16, P304 NR 11 TC 0 J9 GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANGE BP 237 EP 239 PY 2006 PD AUG VL 16 IS 3 GA 073OJ UT ISI:000239752200002 ER PT J AU Perarnaud, V Seguin, B Malezieux, E Deque, M Loustau, D TI Agrometeorological research and applications needed to prepare agriculture and forestry to 21st century climate change SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 Meteo France, Direct Prod, F-31057 Toulouse, France. INRA, Unite Agroclim, F-84914 Avignon, France. Meteo France, Ctr Natl Rech Meteorol, F-31057 Toulouse, France. Ctr Cooperat Int Rech Agron Dev, Cirad DS, F-34398 Montpellier, France. INRA, F-33611 Gazinet, France. RP Perarnaud, V, Meteo France, Direct Prod, 42 Ave Coriolis, F-31057 Toulouse, France. AB The adaptation of agriculture and forestry to the climate of the twenty-first century supposes that research projects will be conducted cooperatively between meteorologists, agronomists, soil scientists, hydrologists, and modellers. To prepare for it, it is appropriate first of all to study the variations in the climate of the past using extensive, homogenised series of meteorological or phenological data. General circulation models constitute the basic tool in order to predict future changes in climate. They will be improved, and the regionalisation techniques used for downscaling climate predictions will also be made more efficient. Crop simulation models using input data from the general circulation models applied at the regional level ought to be the favoured tools to allow the extrapolation of the major trends on yield, consumption of water, fertilisers, pesticides, the environment and rural development. For this, they have to be validated according to the available agronomical data, particularly the available phenological series on cultivated crops. In addition, climate change would have impact on crop diseases and parasites, as well as on weeds. Very few studies have been carried out in this field. It is also necessary to quantify in a more accurate way the stocks and fluxes of carbon in large forest ecosystems, simulate their future, and assess the vulnerability of the various forest species to a change in climate. This is all the more important in that some propagate species choices must be made in the course of the next ten years in plantations which will experience changed climate. More broadly speaking, we shall have not only to try hard to research new agricultural and forestry practices which will reduce greenhouse gas emissions or promote the storage of carbon, but it will also be indispensable to prepare the adaptation of numerous rural communities for the climate change (with special reference to least developed countries in tropical areas, where malnutrition is a common threat). This can be accomplished with a series of new environmental management practices suited to the new climatic order. CR *IPCC, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 BOIFFIN J, 2001, CROP SCI PROGR PROSP, P261 BRISSON N, 1998, AGRONOMIE, V18, P311 BRISSON N, 2002, AGRONOMIE, V22, P69 CHAKRABORTY S, 1998, AUSTRALAS PLANT PATH, V27, P15 CHEN WJ, 1999, GLOB CHANGE BIOL, V5, P41 CHRISTENSEN JH, 2001, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V28, P1003 COAKLEY SM, 1996, ASPECTS APPL BIOL, V45, P227 COAKLEY SM, 1999, ANNU REV PHYTOPATHOL, V37, P399 DELECOLLE R, 1995, CLIMATE CHANGE AGR A, P241 DELECOLLE R, 2000, IMPACTS POTENTIELS C, P74 DEQUE M, 1995, CLIM DYNAM, V11, P321 DEQUE M, 2000, MODELISATION IMPACTS DOMERGUE M, 2001, IMPACT RECHAUFFEMENT GANICHOT B, 2002, EVOLUTION DATE VENDA, P38 GIBELIN AL, 2001, SIMULATED ANTHROPOGE GIORGI F, 1992, J GEOPHYS RES-ATMOSP, V97, P10011 GOUDRIAAN J, 1995, ENVIRON POLLUT, V87, P215 HANSEN JW, 2000, CLIMATE PREDICTION A, P77 HOGENBOOM G, 2000, CLIMATE PREDICTION A, P69 HORIE T, 2000, CLIMATE CHANGE GLOBA, P81 HOUGHTON JT, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 LOREAU M, 2001, SCIENCE, V294, P804 MATTHEWS RB, 1997, AGR SYST, V54, P399 MOISSELIN JM, 2001, HOMOGENEISATION SERI MOISSELIN JM, 2002, CHANGEMENTS CLIMATIQ PERARNAUD V, 1997, 3 EUR C APPL MET GRA, P188 REICOSKY DC, 2000, CABI CLIMATE CHANGE, P27 ROBERT M, 2000, EFFETS POTENTIELS CH ROSENZWEIG C, 1998, CLIMATE CHANGE GLOBA RUGET F, 2001, MODELISTAION AGROECO, P263 SAMBA A, 2001, MODELISATION AGROECO, P243 TIMBAL B, 1995, CLIM DYNAM, V12, P1 VALENTINI R, 2000, NATURE, V404, P861 WESTE G, 1987, ANNU REV PHYTOPATHOL, V25, P207 WILBY RL, 2000, CLIMATE PREDICTION A, P39 NR 36 TC 1 J9 CLIMATIC CHANGE BP 319 EP 340 PY 2005 PD MAY VL 70 IS 1-2 GA 942EG UT ISI:000230265100017 ER PT J AU Haile, M TI Weather patterns, food security and humanitarian response in sub-Saharan Africa SO PHILOSOPHICAL TRANSACTIONS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY B-BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES LA English DT Article C1 World Food Programme, I-00148 Rome, Italy. RP Haile, M, World Food Programme, Via C G Viola 68,Parco Medici, I-00148 Rome, Italy. AB Although considerable achievements in the global reduction of hunger and poverty have been made, progress in Africa so far has been very limited. At present, a third of the African population faces widespread hunger and chronic malnutrition and is exposed to a constant threat of acute food crisis and famine. The most affected are rural households whose livelihood is heavily dependent on traditional rainfed agriculture. Rainfall plays a major role in determining agricultural production and hence the economic and social well being of rural communities. The rainfall pattern in sub-Saharan Africa is influenced by large-scale intra-seasonal and inter-annual climate variability including occasional El Nino events in the tropical Pacific resulting in frequent extreme weather event such as droughts and floods that reduce agricultural outputs resulting in severe food shortages. Households and communities facing acute food shortages are forced to adopt coping strategies to meet the immediate food requirements of their families. These extreme responses may have adverse long-term impacts on households' ability to have sustainable access to food as well as the environment. The HIV/AIDS crisis has also had adverse impacts on food production activities on the continent. In the absence of safety nets and appropriate financial support mechanisms, humanitarian aid is required to enable households effectively cope with emergencies and manage their limited resources more efficiently. Timely and appropriate humanitarian aid will provide households with opportunities to engage in productive and sustainable livelihood strategies. Investments in poverty reduction efforts would have better impact if complemented with timely and predictable response mechanisms that would ensure the protection of livelihoods during crisis periods whether weather or conflict-related. With an improved understanding of climate variability including El Nino, the implications of weather patterns for the food security and vulnerability of rural communities have become more predictable and can be monitored effectively. The purpose of this paper is to investigate how current advances in the understanding of climate variability, weather patterns and food security could contribute to improved humanitarian decision-making. The paper will propose new approaches for triggering humanitarian responses to weather-induced food crises. CR 2005, INVESTING DEV PRACTI *COMM AFR, 2005, OUR COMM INT *FAO, 2003, STAT FOOD INS WORLD *FAO, 2004, STAT FOOD INS WORLD MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 *UNDP, 2004, RED DIS RISK CHALL BARNETT T, 1994, EFFECTS HIV AIDS FAR, P164 BARNETT T, 2003, FAO HIV AIDS FOOD LI CANE MA, 1991, TELECONNECTIONS LINK, P345 CANE MA, 1994, NATURE, V370, P204 DERCON S, 2004, J DEV ECON, V74, P309 DEWAAL A, 2003, LANCET, V362, P1234 DILLEY M, 2002, WMO B, V51, P42 DILLEY M, 2005, DISASTER RISK MANAGE, V5 DUGUERNY J, 2002, AIDS AGR AFRICA FOLLAND CU, 1986, NATURE, V32, P602 GILLESPIE S, 2001, HIV AIDS FOOD NUTR S GILLESPIE SR, 2005, IFPRI FOOD POLICY RE GLANTZ MH, 1994, P WORKSH BUD HUNG 25 GLANTZ MH, 1996, INT J AFR STUD, V1 GODDARD L, 2001, INT J CLIMATOL, V21, P1111 GOES A, 2003, ANN M AM AGR EC ASS HESS U, 2005, 13 WORLD BANK LOUGH JN, 1986, MON WEATHER REV, V114, P156 NICHOLSON SE, 1986, ARCH METEOR GEOPHY A, V34, P311 OGALLO LJ, 1988, J METEOROL SOC JPN, V66, P807 PALMER JN, 1986, NATURE, V322, P251 ROPELEWSKI CF, 1989, J CLIMATE, V2, P268 SKEES JR, 2004, INSURANCE POVERTY, P422 WOLDEGEORGIS T, 1997, USING SCI FAMINE FOO NR 30 TC 2 J9 PHIL TRANS ROY SOC B-BIOL SCI BP 2169 EP 2182 PY 2005 PD NOV 29 VL 360 IS 1463 GA 986CS UT ISI:000233427400016 ER PT J AU Hovi, J TI Ethics and climate policy SO INTERNASJONAL POLITIKK LA Norwegian DT Article AB The ethical merits of three major strategies to confront global warming - prevention, adaptation and geoengineering - are considered. From the point of view of consequentialist ethics, the choice between prevention and adaptation depends on the exact set of consequences taken into consideration. Adaptation is likely to be the preferable option if only consequences for humans here and now are emphasised. By contrast, if one also takes into account effects for humans in other parts of the world, for future generations, or for other species, the case for prevention is strengthened. However, it is probably already too late to avoid global warming altogether. The question is therefore if we should try to recreate the <> climate through geoengineering. A number of ethical objections to this strategy are being discussed. The general conclusion is that, for now at least, we ought to prevent global warming as far as possible, and otherwise adapt as best we can to the climatic changes that nevertheless arise. CR *AMAP, 1997, CLIM CHANG OZ DEPL U *IPCC, 2000, REG IMP CLIM CHANG *NENT, 1997, NENT PUBL, V11 ALFSEN KH, 2000, CLIMATE CHANGE SCI B, P1 ATTFIELD R, 1994, INTERPRETING PRECAUT, S152 BAUMGARTEN JM, 1994, CHR JUD ANT, V10, P27 BODANSKY D, 1996, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V33, P309 BUCKMASTER HA, 1993, ETHICS CLIMATE CHANG, S61 CHAPMAN D, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V47, P225 COWARD H, 1993, ETHICS CLIMATE CHANG, S1 DOBSON A, 1996, DEMOCRACY ENV, S124 DOTTO L, 1993, ETHICAL CHOICES GLOB FOLLESDAL A, 1999, SUSTAINABLE DEV AIMS, S70 FOLLESDAL A, 2000, UNPUB NOEN HOVEDRETN GRUBB M, 1995, INT AFF, V71, P463 HANSSON SO, 1997, INT POLITICS CLIMATE, S153 HARGROVE EC, 1989, FDN ENV ETHICS HOLDEN B, 1996, ETHICAL DIMENSIONS G, S135 HOWARTH RB, 1996, GLOBAL PLANET CHANGE, V11, P187 HURKA T, 1993, ETHICS CLIMATE CHANG, S23 JAMIESON D, 1996, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V33, P323 LEOPOLD A, 1970, SAND COUNTY ABNANAC MALNES R, 1995, VALUING ENV MARLAND G, 1996, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V33, P275 MAUTNER M, 1993, FUTURIST, V27, P33 OUDERKIRK W, 1998, CENTENNIAL REV, V42, P353 PATERSON M, 1996, ETHICAL DIMENSIONS G, S181 SCHELLING TC, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE, V33, P323 SCHNEIDER SH, 1996, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V33, P291 SMEDRUD LH, 2000, CICERONE, V9, P19 NR 30 TC 0 J9 INT POLIT-OSLO BP 179 EP + PY 2001 VL 59 IS 2 GA 454EH UT ISI:000169959100002 ER PT J AU Unruh, GC Carrillo-Hermosilla, J TI Globalizing carbon lock-in SO ENERGY POLICY LA English DT Review C1 Inst Empresa, Madrid 28006, Spain. RP Unruh, GC, Inst Empresa, Madrid Molina 12, Madrid 28006, Spain. AB This paper extends the arguments surrounding carbon lock-in elaborated in Unruh (Energy Policy 28 (2000) 817; 30 (2002) 317) to countries currently undergoing industrialization. it argues that, for numerous reasons, industrializing countries are unlikely to leapfrog carbon intensive energy development. On the contrary, carbon lock-in may be globalizing and could further constrain climate change mitigation options. It is then argued that many policy recommendations ignore carbon lock-in, possibly limiting their potential for successful implementation. The paper then discusses four policy approaches that appear to have advantages given lock-in conditions. It is recognized, however, that relative ease of implementation does not necessarily equate with superiority. Instead, it is merely a path dependent outcome of past development decisions. Pursuing policies on the basis of relative implementation ease may help address the issue of climate change, but could also result in sub-optimal outcomes along other dimensions of sustainable development. (c) 2004 Published by Elsevier Ltd. 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POLICY, V28, P817 UNRUH GC, 2002, ENERG POLICY, V30, P317 VENDEVEN A, 1986, MANAGE SCI, V32, P590 WEBER M, 1999, EXPT SUSTAINABLE TRA WILLIAMS R, 1996, RES POLICY, V25, P865 WILLIAMSON O, 1975, MARKETS HIERARCHIES WILLIAMSON O, 1985, EC I CAPITALISM FIRM WILLIAMSON O, 1997, T COSTS EC WORKS WHE WINSTON C, 1991, J ECON PERSPECT, V5, P113 WITT U, 1997, INT J IND ORGAN, V15, P757 YARDLEY J, 2004, INT HERALD TRIB 0315 YELLE LE, 1979, DECISION SCI, V10, P302 NR 139 TC 1 J9 ENERG POLICY BP 1185 EP 1197 PY 2006 PD JUL VL 34 IS 10 GA 019RY UT ISI:000235855600009 ER PT J AU Reilly, JM Tubiello, F McCarl, B Abler, DG Darwin, RF Fuglie, K Hollinger, S Izaurralde, RC Jagtap, S Jones, J Mearns, LO Ojima, DS Paul, E Paustian, KH Riha, S Rosenberg, NJ Rosenzweig, C TI US agriculture and climate change: New results SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 MIT, Cambridge, MA 02139 USA. Goddard Inst Space Studies, New York, NY USA. Texas A&M Univ, College Stn, TX 77843 USA. Penn State Univ, University Pk, PA 16802 USA. USDA, Washington, DC 20250 USA. Illinois State Water Survey, Champaign, IL 61820 USA. Pacific NW Natl Lab, Richland, WA USA. Univ Florida, Gainesville, FL USA. Natl Ctr Atmospher Res, Boulder, CO 80307 USA. Colorado State Univ, Ft Collins, CO 80523 USA. Michigan State Univ, E Lansing, MI 48824 USA. Cornell Univ, Ithaca, NY 14853 USA. RP Reilly, JM, MIT, 77 Massachusetts Ave,E40-269, Cambridge, MA 02139 USA. AB We examined the impacts on U.S. agriculture of transient climate change as simulated by 2 global general circulation models focusing on the decades of the 2030s and 2090s. We examined historical shifts in the location of crops and trends in the variability of U.S. average crop yields, finding that non-climatic forces have likely dominated the north and westward movement of crops and the trends in yield variability. For the simulated future climates we considered impacts on crops, grazing and pasture, livestock, pesticide use, irrigation water supply and demand, and the sensitivity to international trade assumptions, finding that the aggregate of these effects were positive for the U.S. consumer but negative, due to declining crop prices, for producers. We examined the effects of potential changes in El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and impacts on yield variability of changes in mean climate conditions. Increased losses occurred with ENSO intensity and frequency increases that could not be completely offset even if the events could be perfectly forecasted. Effects on yield variability of changes in mean temperatures were mixed. We also considered case study interactions of climate, agriculture, and the environment focusing on climate effects on nutrient loading to the Chesapeake Bay and groundwater depletion of the Edward's Aquifer that provides water for municipalities and agriculture to the San Antonio, Texas area. While only case studies, these results suggest environmental targets such as pumping limits and changes in farm practices to limit nutrient run-off Would need to be tightened if current environmental goals were to be achieved under the climate scenarios we examined. 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RP Crognier, E, Univ Mediterranee, Fac Med, CNRS, Secteur Ctr,UMR 6578, 27 Bd Jean Moulin, F-13385 Marseille 5, France. AB In 1930, both Fisher and Wright identified Darwin's initial concept of adaptive evolution in the light of the genetical Cheery with intergenerational variation in allelic frequencies brought about by the action of natural selection through differential reproduction. They emphasized that selection only works at the level of the individual and that its only consequence is to increase fitness. One genetical evolution not easy to explain on these bases was that of social behaviour because any altruistic gene disadvantageous for its carriers in an asocial environment would have been opposed by selection. In the 1950s, ethologists focusing on what appeared to be evolved collective behaviours, hypothesized that selection could operate at group level. Though the controversy between group selectionists and evolutionary geneticists ended by the rejection of the evolutionary role of group selection, it has remained a subject of investigation until now. Kin selection, proposed by Hamilton, offered a solution to the problem of the evolution of altruism and gave the impetus to the trend of adaptive explanations of basic behaviours, which was to become the core of human sociobiology. The intrusion of behaviour into the process of adaptive evolution was an invitation to investigate culture as an evolutive process. The first sociobiological interpretations of culture as a derivative of genetic processes were followed by other ideas in which culture, though channelled by evolved predispositions, was essentially free from biological determinism. It is concluded that as we have come to better understand human adaptation, its complexities have been further revealed, a development already implicit in Darwin's notion. 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Tokyo Med & Dent Univ, Grad Sch, Sect Int Hlth, Tokyo, Japan. RP Umezaki, M, Univ Tokyo, Grad Sch Med, Sch Int Hlth, Dept Human Ecol,Bunkyo Ku, 7-3-1 Hongo, Tokyo 1130033, Japan. AB This study examined adaptive strategies of Huli-speaking migrants from the Tari Basin in the Southern Highlands Province to Port Moresby, the capital of Papua New Guinea. An interview survey of all migrant dwellers in two Huli communities, and time allocation and food consumption studies in their three primary settlements revealed that the subject households relied for their livelihood on a variety of activities in the informal sector (e. g., vending, small-scale retailing, moneylending, and chicken rearing) and jobs in the formal sector (e. g., driver, public servant, security guard, and storekeeper). Unexpectedly, the average income of households that exclusively depended on informal sector jobs was equivalent to, or higher than, that of households which included an employee in the formal sector. In addition, the average working hours were shorter in the former. Large interhousehold variation characterized the sample. The residential environment and composition of each household influenced economic strategies, which in turn determined the income, labor hours, and labor efficiency. However, food and nutrient intakes did not vary widely because leveling mechanisms among households, which are social norms in their homeland, still function in the urban settlements. The roles of settlements in Port Moresby are also discussed in relation to "urban problems" and rural-urban connections. 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Univ Miami, Rosenstiel Sch Marine & Atmospher Sci, Div Marine Affairs & Policy, Miami, FL 33149 USA. Univ Venice, Dipartimento Sci Ambientali, I-30123 Venice, Italy. RP Guerzoni, S, CNR, Ist Sci Marine, Riva 7 Martiri 1364-A, I-30122 Venice, Italy. AB The Venice Lagoon (VL) is a complex ecosystem in which public participation and area-based management has often been neglected by administrative bodies involved in the planning of coastal projects and public works. In this area, the analysis of the local situation highlighted a substantial absence of coordination among the various administrative bodies in charge of planning and management at various governmental levels and in different regulated economic sectors. This paper analyses public participation and collaboration with reference to the Integrated Coastal Management context (ICM). The paper examines specific requirements, constraints, and opportunities for the complex case of the VL where participatory management and institutional coordination need enhancement. CR 2004, CALCOLO IMPRONTA ECO *EC, 1999, EC DEM PROGR ICZM RE *EC, 1999, EUR INT CAOST ZON MA *EC, 2000, ASS SOC COSTS BEN IN *EUCC, 1999, 3 M GEN WATSON RT, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, V1, P1 *UNESCO, 1995, LAG VEN *UNESCO, 2004, OP GUID IMPL WORLD H *WCC, 1993, WORLD COAST C NOV 1 BETTINETTI A, 1996, J ENVIRON MANAGE, V46, P207 BETTIOL C, RELATIVE CONTRIBUTIO BOWER B, 1994, FRAMEWORK PLANNING I BROCHIER F, 2001, NOTE LAVORO SERIES, V99, P1 BROCHIER F, 2001, NOTRE LAVORO SERIES, V100, P1 BURIGANA E, 2003, DIFF POLL C DUBL CICINSAIN B, 1998, INTEGRATED COASTAL O FAVERO V, 1991, P C CONV STUD BIC TE GUERZONI S, 2004, SICK LAGOON DIOXIN O MUSU I, 1998, INDICATORI SOSTENIBI NEIL DT, 2002, COAST COAST, P318 ORBACH M, 1995, IMPROVING INTERACTIO, P49 RAMIERI E, 1999, INDICATORS SUSTAINAB RAVERA O, 2000, J LIMNOL, V59, P19 RUNCA E, 1993, P MEDCOAST 93 C NOV SMART M, 2004, LAGOON VENICE RAMSAR SORENSEN JC, 1990, I ARRANGEMENTS MANAG SORS JC, 2001, NOTE LAVORO SERIES, V16, P1 UMGIESSER G, 2003, ENVIRON MODELL SOFTW, V18, P131 WACKERNAGEL M, 1996, OUR ECOLOGICAL FOOTP NR 29 TC 0 J9 HYDROBIOLOGIA BP 251 EP 269 PY 2005 PD NOV 1 VL 550 GA 979YK UT ISI:000232980900021 ER PT J AU Oppenheimer, M Petsonk, A TI Article 2 of the UNFCCC: Historical origins, recent interpretations SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Review C1 Princeton Univ, Woodrow Wilson Sch, Princeton, NJ 08544 USA. Princeton Univ, Dept Geosci, Princeton, NJ 08544 USA. RP Oppenheimer, M, Princeton Univ, Woodrow Wilson Sch, Robertson Hall 448, Princeton, NJ 08544 USA. AB Article 2 of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), which states the treaty's long-term objective, is the subject of a growing literature that examines means to interpret and implement this provision. Here we provide context for these studies by exploring the intertwined scientific, legal, economic, and political history of Article 2. We review proposed definitions for "dangerous anthropogenic interference" and frameworks that have been proposed for implementing these definitions. Specific examples of dangerous climate changes suggest limits on global warming ranging from 1 to 4 degrees C and on concentrations ranging from 450 to 700 ppm CO2 equivalents. The implications of Article 2 for near term restrictions on greenhouse-gas emissions, e.g., the Kyoto Protocol, are also discussed. 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RP Jaccard, M, SIMON FRASER UNIV,BURNABY,BC V5A 1S6,CANADA. AB A number of possible policy responses can be adopted in order to address the prospect of increasing greenhouse gases in the earth's atmosphere, These include mitigation measures, that reduce greenhouse gas emissions or enhance the processes that remove greenhouse gases from the atmosphere, adaptation measures that reduce the consequences or damages from climate change, and information measures, including scientific research on climate processes and research and development on new energy technologies, Climate research can reduce current uncertainties about the consequences of greenhouse gas emissions and new energy technologies can reduce the costs of mitigation measures, All of these measures have a role in a balanced approach to climate policy. Copyright (C) 1996 Elsevier Science Ltd. CR *ASE AM COUNC EN E, 1991, AM EN CHOIC INV STRO *CRA, 1991, POL ALT RED PETR US *EN MOD FOR, 1993, 12 EMF STANF U *IPCC, 1992, CLIM CHANG 1992 SUPP *OTA, 1991, CHANG DEGR STEPS RED BARNES DW, 1992, 113 OECD BOVENBERG AL, 1993, INTEGRATING ENV DIST BRUCE JP, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, V3 BURNIAUX JM, 1992, GREEN GLOBAL MODEL Q CLINE WR, 1992, EC GLOBAL WARMING EDMONDS J, 1992, INT J GLOBAL ENERGY, V4, P140 EDMONDS JA, 1983, ENERGY EC, V5 EDMONDS JA, 1993, CARBON COALITIONS CO EDMONDS JA, 1994, P INT WORKSH INT ASS GOULDER LH, 1994, TAX POLICY EC, V8 HAZILLA M, 1986, SOCIAL COST ENV QUAL JORGENSON DW, 1993, REDUCING US CARBON D KOLSTAD CD, 1993, COSTS IMPACTS BENEFI KOOMEY J, 1991, LBL30477 MANNE AS, 1991, IPIECA GLOBAL CLIMAT MANNE AS, 1992, BUYING GREENHOUSE GA MANNE AS, 1993, UNPUB MERGE MODEL EV MANNE AS, 1994, 146 EC DEP MANNE AS, 1994, ENERGY J, V15, P57 MANNE AS, 1995, GLOBAL CARBON DIOXID MONTGOMERY WD, 1993, NO FREE LUNCH REV TE MONTGOMERY WD, 1994, EC IMPACTS CARBON TA MOULTON R, 1990, COSTS SEQUESTERING C NORDHAUS WD, 1994, MANAGING GLOBAL COMM OLIVIERAMARTINS J, 1992, EC STUDIES OECD, V19 PECK SC, 1993, RESOUR ENERGY ECON, V15, P71 RICHELS R, 1993, P TSUK WORKSH IPCC W ROBINSON JB, 1993, CANADIAN OPTIONS GRE SCHELLING TC, 1992, AM ECON REV, V82, P1 NR 34 TC 5 J9 ENERG POLICY BP 889 EP 898 PY 1996 PD OCT-NOV VL 24 IS 10-11 GA VX502 UT ISI:A1996VX50200004 ER PT J AU Gossling, S Hall, CM TI Uncertainties in predicting tourist flows under scenarios of climate change SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Editorial Material C1 Lund Univ, Dept Serv Management, S-25108 Helsingborg, Sweden. Univ Otago, Dept Tourism, Dunedin, New Zealand. RP Gossling, S, Lund Univ, Dept Serv Management, Box 882, S-25108 Helsingborg, Sweden. AB Tourism is largely dependent on climatic and natural resources. For example, "warmer'' climates generally constitute preferred environments for recreation and leisure, and natural resources such as fresh water, biodiversity, beaches or landscapes are essential preconditions for tourism. Global environmental change threatens these foundations of tourism through climate change, modifications of global biogeochemical cycles, land alteration, the loss of non-renewable resources, unsustainable use of renewable resources and loss of biodiversity (Gossling and Hall, 2005). This has raised concerns that tourist flows will change to the advantage or disadvantage of destinations, which is of major concern to local and national economies, as tourism is one of the largest economic sectors of the world, and of great importance for many destinations. In consequence, an increasing number of publications have sought to analyse travel flows in relation to climatic and socio-economic parameters (e.g. Lise and Tol, 2001; Maddison, 2001; Christ et al., 2003; Hamilton et al., 2003; Hamilton and Tol, 2004). The ultimate goal has been to develop scenarios for future travel flows, possibly including "most at risk destinations'', both in economic and in environmental terms. Such scenarios are meant to help the tourist industry in planning future operations, and they are of importance in developing plans for adaptation. CR *WTO, 2003, P 1 INT C CLIM CHANG AGNEW M, 2001, TOURISM HOSPITALITY, V3, P37 BELLE N, 2005, J TRAVEL RES, V44, P32 BENISTON M, 2003, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V59, P5 BLAKE ES, 2005, DEADLIEST COSTLIEST BREILING M, 1999, REGIONAL ENV CHANGE, V1, P4 BURKI R, 2003, 1 INT C CLIM CHANG T CHRIST C, 2003, TOURISM BIODIVERSITY DEFREITAS CR, 2001, P 1 INT WORKSH CLIM, P3 DICASTRI F, 2001, TOURISM BIODIVERSITY, P483 FEIGHY W, 2003, CURRENT ISSUES TOURI, V6, P76 FLOYD MF, 2004, SAFETY SECURITY TOUR, P19 GOSSLING S, 2005, IN PRESS CURRENT ISS GOSSLING S, 2005, TOURISM GLOBAL ENV C HALL CM, 2002, CURRENT ISSUES TOURI, V5, P458 HALL CM, 2004, SAFETY SECURITY TOUR HALL CM, 2005, TOURISM RECREATION C HALL CM, 2005, TOURISM RETHINKING S HAMILTON JM, 2003, FNU15 RES UN SUST GL HAMILTON JM, 2004, FNU31 U HAMB CTR MAR JENKINS O, 1999, INT J TOURISM RES, V1, P1 KENT M, 2002, APPL GEOGR, V22, P351 KONIG U, 1999, GEOGR HELV, V54, P147 LIMB M, 2001, QUALITATIVE APPROACH, P21 LISE W, 2002, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V55, P429 MADDISON D, 2001, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V49, P193 MANSFELD Y, 2003, NATO ADV RES CLIM CH PERRY A, 2004, TOURISM RECREATION C, P86 PERRY AH, 2000, NOTA LAVORO, V35 POIRIER RA, 2000, POLITICAL EC TOURISM, P29 PRIDEAUX B, 1999, CURRENT ISSUES TOURI, V2, P279 RICHARDSON RB, 2003, 1 INT C CLIM CHANG T SCOTT D, 2000, CLIMATE CHANGE CANAD SCOTT D, 2003, 1 INT C CLIM CHAN TO SCOTT D, 2005, TOURISM GLOBAL ENV C, P54 SINDIGA L, 2000, POLITICAL EC TOURISM, P129 SMITH K, 1993, WEATHER, V48, P398 STAPLE T, 1996, CAN GEOGR-GEOGR CAN, V40, P109 UYARRA MC, 2005, ENVIRON CONSERV, V32, P11 NR 39 TC 1 J9 CLIMATIC CHANGE BP 163 EP 173 PY 2006 PD DEC VL 79 IS 3-4 GA 110DX UT ISI:000242359600001 ER PT J AU Pittock, AB TI Coral reefs and environmental change: Adaptation to what? SO AMERICAN ZOOLOGIST LA English DT Article C1 CSIRO Atmospher Res, Aspendale, Vic 3195, Australia. RP Pittock, AB, CSIRO Atmospher Res, Private Bag 1, Aspendale, Vic 3195, Australia. AB The present concern about future climate change and sea-level rise due to the: enhanced greenhouse effect is put In the context of past changes. Best estimates of future changes are detailed, with an explanation of methods and uncertainties, Considerable progress is being made in regard to estimates of future sealevel rise and its regional variation, and towards predicting likely changes in the behaviour of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and tropical cyclones. Changes in rainfall amounts and intensity, and in extremes of surface temperature are other critical climatic variables for coral reefs. Impacts on coral reefs will result from a combination of stresses arising from several aspects of global change, including stresses due to sea-level rise, extreme temperatures, human damage (from mining, dredging, fishing and tourism), and changes in salinity and pollutant concentrations (nutrients, pesticides, herbicides and particulates), and in ocean currents, ENSO, and storm damage, These may be exacerbated by any reduction in calcification rates of corals due to changes in ocean chemistry. In view of ongoing uncertainties regarding future rates of change, especially at the local scale, impact and adaptation assessments cannot provide unequivocal answers, but rather must be couched in terms of probabilities and risk. Reef communities which are presently under stress are likely to be particularly vulnerable, Both autonomous and managed (or planned) adaptations should be considered. 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RP Larsen, CS, Ohio State Univ, Dept Anthropol, 244 Lord Hall 244 W 17th Ave, Columbus, OH 43210 USA. AB Skeletons represent the most direct evidence of the biology of past populations, and their study provides insight into health and well-being, dietary history, lifestyle (activity), violence and trauma, ancestry, and demography. These areas help inform our understanding of a range of issues, such as the causes and consequences of adaptive shifts in the ast (e.g., foraging to farming, sedentarism), the biological impact of invasion and colonization, differential access to food and other resources (e.g., by gender or status), and conflict and warfare. Central to bioarchaeological inquiry are the interaction between biology and behavior and the role of environment on health and lifestyle. Bioarchaeological analysis has traditionally focused on local settings. However, important perspective on general question of human adaptation is possible both regionally and globally. 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BONE GROWTH INF WALKER PL, 1989, AM J PHYS ANTHROPOL, V80, P313 WALKER PL, 2000, BIOL ANTHR HUMAN SKE, P3 WALKER PL, 2001, UNPUB GREATER SCIATI WASHBURN SL, 1947, ANAT REC, V99, P293 WASHBURN SL, 1947, T NY ACAD SCI, V21, P174 WEBB S, 1959, PALAEOPATHOLOGY ABOR WHITE CD, 1994, AM J PHYS ANTHROPOL, V93, P165 WHITE CD, 1998, J ARCHAEOL SCI, V25, P643 WHITE CD, 2000, J ANTHROPOL RES, V56, P535 WHITE TD, 1992, PREHIST CANNIBALISM WHITE TD, 2000, HUMAN OSTEOLOGY WILLEY P, 1990, PREHIST WARFARE GREA WOLFF J, 1892, LAW BONE REMODELLING WOLPOFF MH, 2000, ANTHR REV, V63, P3 WOOD JW, 1992, CURR ANTHROPOL, V33, P343 ZUMWALT AC, 2001, AM J PHYS ANTHROPOL, V32, P170 NR 226 TC 0 J9 J ARCHAEOL RES BP 119 EP 166 PY 2002 PD JUN VL 10 IS 2 GA 551ZA UT ISI:000175592800001 ER PT J AU Ford, JD Smit, B TI A framework for assessing the vulnerability of communities in the Canadian arctic to risks associated with climate change SO ARCTIC LA English DT Article C1 Univ Guelph, Dept Geog, Guelph, ON N1G 2W1, Canada. RP Ford, JD, Univ Guelph, Dept Geog, Guelph, ON N1G 2W1, Canada. AB Adaptation to climate change is recognized as an important policy issue by international bodies such as the United Nations and by various national governments. Initiatives to identify adaptation needs and to improve adaptive capacity increasingly start with an assessment of the vulnerability of the system of interest, in terms of who and what are vulnerable, to what stresses, in what way, and what capacity exists to adapt to changing risks. Notwithstanding the scholarship on climate change itself, there are few studies on the nature of Arctic communities' vulnerability to climate-change risks. We review existing literature on implications of climate change for Arctic communities, develop a conceptual model of vulnerability, and present an analytical approach to assessing climate hazards and coping strategies in Arctic communities. Vulnerability is conceptualized as a function of exposure to climatic stresses and the adaptive capacity to cope with these stresses. The analytical framework employs place-specific case studies involving community residents and integrates information from multiple sources, both to document current exposures and adaptations and to characterize future exposures and adaptive capacity. 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Carnegie Mellon Univ, Ctr Integrated Study Human Dimens Global Change, Pittsburgh, PA 15213 USA. Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res, D-14412 Potsdam, Germany. RP Yohe, GW, Wesleyan Univ, Dept Econ, Middletown, CT 06459 USA. AB Windows delineating tolerable or "acceptable" conditions associated with climate change can be defined in terms of a variety of parameters; a preliminary window offered by the Scientific Advisory Council on Global Change of the Federal Government of Germany sets limits on temperature change and the rate of temperature change. Investment in adaptation can alter the size and shape of these windows, and different emissions trajectories are associated with different limiting points on their boundaries. As a result, the value of adaptation depends upon both the underlying structure of the tolerable window and the basecase emissions trajectory. Given uncertainty about both, the best near-term policy should be cast in a sequential decision-making framework. Seen in this light, improved adaptive potential can either reduce the cost of sustaining tolerable climate change or increase the opportunity cost of holding to more restrictive boundaries. 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NASA, Ames Res Ctr, Moffett Field, CA 94035 USA. Univ Tokyo, Grad Sch Agr & Life Sci, Bunkyo Ku, Tokyo 113, Japan. RP Milesi, C, Univ Montana, Dept Ecosyst & Conservat Sci, Numer Terradynam Simulat Grp, Missoula, MT 59812 USA. AB Human domination of ecosystems has been pervasive over the last century, with nearly half of Earth's surface transformed by human actions. it is widely accepted that humans appropriate up to 50% of global net primary production (NPP), the energy base of all the trophic levels on the land surface. Yet, despite the important role of vegetation productivity for defining Earth habitability, the covariation of NPP and human population distribution has not been analyzed in depth. We used recently available satellite-based NPP estimates, along with gridded population at 0.5 degrees resolution, first, to identify the global distribution of human population with reference to average NPP and to the various climatic constraints (temperature, water and cloud cover) that limit NPP, second, to analyze recent trends in global NPP in relation to population trends, and third, to identify populations that are vulnerable to changes in NPP due to interannual variability in climate. Our results indicate that over half of the global human population is presently living in areas with above the average NPP of 490 g C m(-2) year(-1). By 1998, nearly 56% of global population lived in regions where water availability strongly influences NPP. Per capita NPP declined over much of Africa between 1982 and 1998, in spite of the estimated increases in NPP over the same period. On average, NPP over 40% of the total vegetated land surface has shown significant correlations with ENSO-induced climate variability affecting over 2.8 billion people. (c) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 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Climate change is thus of vital interest to India's social, economic and environmental well-being. This case study focuses on traditional adaptation practises used by vulnerable communities in the drought-prone Tonk district, Rajasthan. Communities here already bear the brunt of drought and have learnt to cope. Successive droughts over wider geographic areas, combined with other stresses, now threaten to overwhelm coping capacity in ways that might become the norm with climate change. New adaptation strategies have been introduced in Tonk by local non-governmental organisations (NGOs) that build on existing knowledge and expertise about water, agriculture and livestock management. These include: growing new crops such as vegetables, fodder and higher value medicinal crops for commercial sale; use of environmentally sound fertilisers (vermiculture); improved storage for fodder and food grains; and improved water conservation and harvesting techniques through bunding of fields, construction of anicuts and digging and deepening ponds and wells. The growing number of people subject to successive droughts in Rajasthan (40 million in 2002-3) suggests, however, re-examination of state and federal policies, such as the National Agricultural Insurance Scheme, would be prudent to ensure these strategies are available to the most vulnerable, in order to prevent, rather than respond to, disaster. 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AB A study of agroforestry adoption by 3,000 project participants in Siaya and South Nyanza Districts in Kenya supports three hypotheses. (1) Historical increases in tree domestication and management intensity are responses to declining supply of uncultivated tree resources, increased subsistence and commercial demand for tree products, and perceived risks of ecological degradation. Adoption of agroforestry is most likely where consistent with economic incentives for land use change. (2) High variability in individual farmers' tree-growing strategies reflects differences in resources and livelihood strategies, and household-level returns to agroforestry relative to alternative options for meeting specific objectives. (3) Farmers reduce risks associated with new agroforestry practices through incremental adoption and adaptation, and cost- and risk-reducing modifications in technology design. 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PEOPLE HIST WORSTER D, 1977, NATURES EC HIST ECOL, R7 WORSTER D, 1979, DUST BOWL SO PLAINS WORSTER D, 1984, PAC HIST REV, V53, P1 WORSTER D, 1985, RIVERS EMPIRE WATER WORSTER D, 1988, ENDS EARTH PERSPECTI, P292 WORSTER D, 1988, ENDS EARTH, P290 WORSTER D, 1990, J AM HIST, V76, P1087 WORSTER D, 1992, W SKIES NATURE HIST NR 188 TC 27 J9 J HIST GEOGR BP 3 EP 21 PY 1994 PD JAN VL 20 IS 1 GA MV990 UT ISI:A1994MV99000002 ER PT J AU Haines, A Kovats, RS Campbell-Lendrum, D Corvalan, C TI Climate change and human health: Impacts, vulnerability and public health SO PUBLIC HEALTH LA English DT Article C1 London Sch Hyg & Trop Med, London WC1E 7HT, England. WHO, CH-1211 Geneva, Switzerland. RP Haines, A, London Sch Hyg & Trop Med, Keppel St, London WC1E 7HT, England. AB It is now widely accepted that climate change is occurring as a result of the accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere arising from the combustion of fossil fuels. Climate change may affect health through a range of pathways, for example as a result of increased frequency and intensity of heat waves, reduction in cold related deaths, increased floods and droughts, changes in the distribution of vector-borne diseases and effects on the risk of disasters and malnutrition. The overall balance of effects on health is likely to be negative and populations in low-income countries are likely to be particularly vulnerable to the adverse effects. The experience of the 2003 heat wave in Europe shows that high-income countries may also be adversely affected. Adaptation to climate change requires public health strategies and improved surveillance. Mitigation of climate change by reducing the use of fossil fuels and increasing a number of uses of the renewable energy technologies should improve health in the near-term by reducing exposure to air pollution. (c) 2006 The Royal Institute of Public Health. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 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RP Cornelissen, E, Royal Museum Central Africa, Section PRehist & Archaeol, B-3080 Tervuren, Belgium. AB Reconstructions of the Equatorial forest in Central Africa fuel the debate on whether hunter-gatherers at the end of the Pleistocene were capable of living in or off the forest prior to the advent of agriculture. Their traces are rare and often reduced to their stone equipment. In an attempt to see to what extent technology and environmental exploitation are interrelated, all Central African sites dated between 40,000 and 12,000 BP are analyzed for their material culture, the environmental setting at the time of the occupation, and the exploitation of that environment. Although the evidence is still circumstantial, two large technological traditions have been recognized in Central Africa at the end of the Pleistocene, the Lupemban and microlithic industries, and both are associated with a variety of environments. This, in combination with a fragmented forest and concomitant increase of ecotone during the Last Glacial Maximum, would have enhanced rather than hampered human occupation in the area. It may be argued that the inherent flexibility and capability of exploiting a variety of environments enabled the hunter-gatherer communities to face and adapt to environmental changes regardless of stone technology. 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Univ Oslo, CICERO Ctr Int Climate & Environm Res, NO-0317 Oslo, Norway. Univ E Anglia, Sch Dev Studies, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. Univ E Anglia, Climat Res Unit, Sch Environm Sci, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. RP Eriksen, SH, Univ Oslo, Dept Sociol & Human Geog, POB 1096 Blindern, NO-0317 Oslo, Norway. AB We investigate how smallholder farmers at two sites in Kenya and Tanzania cope with climate stress and how constraints and opportunities shape variations in coping strategies between households and over time during a drought. On the basis of this analysis, we draw out implications for adaptation and adaptive policy. We find that households where an individual was able to specialize in one favoured activity, such as employment or charcoal burning, in the context of overall diversification by the household, were often less vulnerable than households where each individual is engaged in many activities at low intensity. Many households had limited access to the favoured coping options due to a lack of skill, labour and/or capital. This lack of access was compounded by social relations that led to exclusion of certain groups, especially women, from carrying out favoured activities with sufficient intensity. These households instead carried out a mulitude of less favoured and frequently complementary activities, such as collecting indigenous fruit. While characterized by suitability to seasonal environmental variations and low demands on time and cash investments, these strategies often yielded marginal returns. Both the marginalization of local niche products and the commercialization of forest resources exemplify processes leading to differential vulnerability. We suggest that vulnerability can usefully be viewed in terms of the interaction of such processes, following the concept of locality. We argue that coping is a distinct component of vulnerability and that understanding the dynamism of coping and vulnerability is critical to developing adaptation measures that support people as active agents. 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RP Parker, WC, Ontario Forest Res Inst, 1235 Queen St E, Sault St Marie, ON P6A 2E5, Canada. AB Climate change may profoundly influence Ontario' s forest ecosystems and their management. Elevated atmospheric CO, concentrations, increased temperature and altered precipitation regimes will affect forest vegetation through their influence on physiological (e.g., photosynthesis,respiration) and ecological processes (e.g., net primary production, decomposition), and may result in dramatic northward shifts in the natural range of forest types and species. More importantly, climate change is expected to increase the frequency of natural disturbances. Silvicultural intervention will increasingly be relied on to maintain forest health, manage declining stands, regenerate disturbed areas and cutovers with desired species and genotypes, maintain genetic diversity, and assist in species migration. Given the increasingly important role of Ontario' s forests in national and provincial efforts to meet greenhouse gas emission reduction targets of the Kyoto Protocol, afforestation, conservation of existing forests, and increased forest management activities to accelerate the storage of carbon in Ontario's forests will be key aspects of forestry at the start of the third millennium. 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WINJUM JK, 1998, FOREST SCI, V44, P272 WOTTON BM, 1993, FOREST CHRON, V69, P187 WULLSCHLEGER SD, 1994, PLANT SOIL, V165, P149 ZERBE JI, 1993, WORLD RES REV, V5, P414 ZOLTAI SC, 1988, ECOLOGICAL LAND CLAS, V24, P1 ZOLTAI SC, 1996, NATO ASI SER SER I, V40, P47 NR 151 TC 1 J9 FOREST CHRON BP 445 EP 463 PY 2000 PD MAY-JUN VL 76 IS 3 GA 333TE UT ISI:000088146200038 ER PT J AU Morss, RE Wilhelmi, OV Downton, MW Gruntfest, E TI Flood risk, uncertainty, and scientific information for decision making - Lessons from an interdisciplinary project SO BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY LA English DT Article C1 Natl Ctr Atmospher Res, MMM, ESIG, Boulder, CO 80307 USA. Univ Colorado, Colorado Springs, CO 80907 USA. RP Morss, RE, Natl Ctr Atmospher Res, MMM, ESIG, POB 3000, Boulder, CO 80307 USA. AB The magnitude of flood damage in the United States, combined with the uncertainty in current estimates of flood risk, suggest that society could benefit from improved scientific information about flood risk. To help address this perceived need, a group of researchers initiated an interdisciplinary study of climate variability, scientific uncertainty, and hydrometeorological information for flood-risk decision making, focused on Colorado's Rocky Mountain Front Range urban corridor. We began by investigating scientific research directions that were likely to benefit flood-risk estimation and management, through consultation with climatologists, hydrologists, engineers, and planners. In doing so, we identified several challenges involved in generating new scientific information to aid flood management in the presence of significant scientific and societal uncertainty. This essay presents lessons learned from this study, along with our observations on the complex interactions among scientific information, uncertainty, and societal decision making. It closes by proposing a modification to the "end to end" approach to conducting societally relevant scientific research. Although we illustrate points using examples from flood management, the concepts may be applicable to other arenas, such as global climate change. 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AB Environmental impact assessment (EIA) and strategic environmental assessment (SEA), two instruments for environmental management that aim to prevent negative environmental impacts, are currently being examined for their usefulness in promoting sustainable development. Because of the importance of introducing sustainable development at the local level, this paper deals with impact assessment systems introduced by local authorities and links them to the sustainable development debate. First, the establishment of EIA and SEA systems at the local level is considered. The adaptation of existing impact assessment systems to their new role as sustainability assessment tool leads to the search for so called sustainability assessment systems. These systems aim to examine during the decision-making process whether policies, plans, programmes or other initiatives will lead society in a more sustainable direction. A framework for sustainability assessment studies is developed and proposals for the further improvement of EIA, SEA and sustainability assessment systems at the local level are discussed. Copyright (C) 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment. CR *DEP URB AFF PLANN, 1996, EIS GUID *ICLEI, 1996, LOC AG 231 PLANN GUI *UNCED, 1992, AG 21 PROGR ACT SUST *WCED, 1987, OUR COMM FUT BASS R, 1996, P 16 ANN M INT ASS I DEGROOT WT, 1993, ENVIRON MANAGE, V1, P22 DENNIS NB, 1998, P 18 ANN M INT ASS I DEVUYST D, 1998, P 18 ANN M INT ASS I HARDI P, 1997, ASSESSING SUSTAINABL JACOBS P, 1988, SUSTAINABLE DEV ENV SADLER B, 1996, STRATEGIC ENV ASSESS SMAAL PA, 1997, DOTIS DUURZAME ONTWI THERIVEL R, 1992, STRATEGIC ENV ASSESS NR 13 TC 1 J9 SUSTAIN DEV BP 67 EP 78 PY 2000 PD MAY VL 8 IS 2 GA 326CN UT ISI:000087715000001 ER PT J AU Winkler, H TI Climate change and developing countries SO SOUTH AFRICAN JOURNAL OF SCIENCE LA English DT Review C1 Univ Cape Town, Energy Res Ctr, ZA-7701 Rondebosch, South Africa. RP Winkler, H, Univ Cape Town, Energy Res Ctr, Private Bag, ZA-7701 Rondebosch, South Africa. AB This article takes stock of current knowledge of climate change and the response to this major problem affecting the environment and economic development. It begins with a brief review of climate change science and impacts as assessed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. It then reports on the status of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and its Kyoto Protocol, and summarizes national commitments to making the effort required to mitigate climate change by limiting the emission of greenhouse gases. The main issues still to be addressed are identified, focusing in particular on carbon markets and adaptation funding. Future prospects are considered, including possible emissions targets for developing countries. The article thus focuses on the key issues of concern for developing countries. 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Rutgers State Univ, Dept Geog, Piscataway, NJ 08854 USA. RP OBrien, KL, Univ Oslo, CICERO, N-0318 Oslo, Norway. AB The idea that global change produces winners and losers is widely accepted. Yet there have been few systematic discussions of what is meant by "winner" or "loser," and little attention has been given to the theoretical underpinnings behind identification of winners and losers. This is particularly true within global-change literature, where the phrase "winners and losers" is widely and rather loosely used. In this article, we explore the concept of winners and losers in the context of two aspects of global change: economic globalization and climate change. We first identify two major underlying theoretical perspectives on winners and losers: one suggests that winners and losers are natural and inevitable; the other suggests that winners and losers are socially and politically generated. We then apply these perspectives to current research on global change and demonstrate that they play a decisive role, influencing opinions on what winning and losing entails, who winners and losers are, and how winners and losers should be addressed. CR *UN, 2002, UN FRAM CONV CLIM CH *UNDP, 1998, HUM DEV REP ADAMS R, 1999, AGR GLOBAL CLIMATE C ADDISON JT, 2000, SOUTHERN ECON J, V66, P682 AFSHAR F, 1994, J PLAN EDUC RES, V13, P271 AMIN S, 1997, CAPITALISM AGE GLOBA ANDERSON CW, 1990, PRAGMATIC LIBERALISM BANNISTER RC, 1979, SOCIAL DARWINISM SCI BELLO W, 2000, VIEWS S EFFECTS GLOB, P54 BLAIKIE PM, 1987, LAND DEGRADATION SOC BOHLE HG, 1994, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V4, P37 BRYANT RL, 1992, POLIT GEOGR, V11, P12 CAPLAN AJ, 1999, J ENVIRON ECON MANAG, V37, P256 CARTER TR, 1996, ADAPTING CLIMATE CHA, P27 CASTELLS M, 1996, RISE NETWORK SOC CAVES RE, 1993, WORLD TRADE PAYMENTS CHEN W, 1999, POLITICAL EC RURAL D CONROY ME, 1993, J INTERAMERICAN STUD, V34, P1 DAWKINS R, 1976, SELFISH GENE DEARDORFF AV, 2000, SOCIAL DIMENSIONS US DEMERITT D, 2001, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V91, P307 DICKEN P, 1997, GLOBAL SHIFT TRANSFO DICKENS P, 2000, SOCIAL DARWINISM LIN EHRLICH PR, 2000, HUMAN NATURES GENES FISCHER G, 2001, GLOBAL AGRO ECOLOGIC GARDEZI HN, 1998, J CONTEMP ASIA, V28, P310 GARRETT G, 2000, COMP POLIT STUD, V33, P941 GILPIN R, 2000, CHALLENGE GLOBAL CAP GLANTZ MH, 1995, CLIMATE CHANGE RES E, P41 GOODALL B, 1987, DICT HUMANG EOGRPAHY GREIDER W, 1997, ONE WORLD READY OR N GRUBER L, 2000, RULING WORLD POWER P HARPER JL, 1991, FDN ECOLOGY CLASSIC, P385 HOROWITZ IL, 1984, WINNERS LOSERS SOCIA HUNTINGTON E, 1914, J RACE DEV, V5, P185 JAMES J, 2000, CONSUMPTION GLOBALIZ JAMES J, 2000, J ECON ISSUES, V34, P537 JOHNSTON RJ, 2000, DICT HUMAN GEOGRAPHY KAPSTEIN EB, 1999, J INT AFF, V52, P533 KAPSTEIN EB, 2000, INT ORGAN, V54, P359 KAYE HL, 1997, SOCIAL MEANING MODER KELLY PM, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V47, P325 KELLY PM, 2000, TIEMPO, V36 KEOHANE RO, 1984, HEGEMONY COOPERATION KOSLOWSKI P, 1996, ETHICS CAPITALISM CR KREBS CJ, 2000, ECOLOGY EXPT ANAL DI LEICHENKO RM, 2000, ECON GEOGR, V76, P303 LEICHENKO RM, 2002, MITIGATION ADAPTATIO, V7, P1 LEWTHWAITE G, 1966, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V56, P1 MARX K, 1961, ESSENTIAL WORKS MARX, P1 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 MITTELMAN JH, 1996, GLOBALIZATION CRITIC MITTELMAN JH, 2000, GLOBALIZATION SYNDRO NORDHAUS WD, 1991, ECON J, V101, P920 OBRIEN KL, UNPUB CLIMATIC CHANG OBRIEN KL, 2000, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V10, P221 ORIORDAN T, 1999, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V9, P81 PIETERSE JN, 2001, DEV THEORY DECONSTRU RAWLS J, 1971, THEORY JUSTICE REILLY JM, 1994, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V4, P24 RODRIK D, 1997, GLOBALIZATION GONE T SAUER CO, 1941, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V31, P1 SCHAEFFER RK, 1997, UNDERSTANDING GLOBAL SEMPLE EC, 1911, INFLUENCES GEOGRAPHI SHIVA V, 2000, VIEWS S EFFECTS GLOB, P91 SMIT B, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P223 SOROOS M, 1997, ENDANGERED ATMOSPHER SUN HS, 1997, THIRD WORLD Q, V18, P843 TAYLOR PJ, 1992, GEOFORUM, V23, P405 TAYLOR PJ, 1995, GEOGRAPHIES GLOBAL C TISDELL C, 2000, UNPUB GLOBALISATION TOL RSJ, 2001, SCG4 HAMB U RES UN S WADE R, 2001, ECONOMIST, V359, P72 WATSON RT, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, V1, P1 WENT R, 2000, J ECON ISSUES, V34, P655 WILSON EO, 1975, SOCIOBIOLOGY NEW SYN WOOD A, 1994, NS TRADE EMPLOYMENT WORSTER D, 1977, NATURES EC HIST ECOL YAO SJ, 1998, REG STUD, V32, P735 NR 79 TC 4 J9 ANN ASSN AMER GEOGR BP 89 EP 103 PY 2003 PD MAR VL 93 IS 1 GA 688ED UT ISI:000183419600007 ER PT J AU Dixon, RK Perry, JA Vanderklein, EL Hiol, FH TI Vulnerability of forest resources to global climate change: Case study of Cameroon and Ghana SO CLIMATE RESEARCH LA English DT Article C1 UNIV MINNESOTA,DEPT FOREST RESOURCES,ST PAUL,MN 55108. UNIV DSCHANG,DEPT FORESTRY,DSCHANG,CAMEROON. RP Dixon, RK, US COUNTRY STUDIES PROGRAM,WASHINGTON,DC 20585. AB The response and feedbacks of forest systems to global environmental change, including the ecosystems of West Africa, are expected to be profound. A comparative assessment of current and future forest distribution in Cameroon and Ghana in response to land-use change and global climate change was completed. From 1970 to 1990, the forest area of Cameroon and Ghana declined dramatically due to harvesting and degradation, averaging 0.6 and 1.3% each year, respectively. The areal distribution of West African forest systems is projected to shift 5 to 15%, based on 4 General Circulation Model (GCM) scenarios and the Holdridge Life Zone Classification System. Loss of forest habitat due to destruction, degradation and climate change is projected to increase animal and plant species loss. Adaptation of evergreen and deciduous forest systems to global environmental change poses many challenges for Cameroon and Ghana. Application of low-input, indigenous resource management options, which have been practiced on a sustained basis for centuries, may be a feasible adaptation goal. 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RP Ernst, TM, Charles Sturt Univ, Wagga Wagga, NSW 2678, Australia. AB Resource development may involve codifications of social organization that alter preexisting arrangements. This is the case in Onabasulu society today, impacted by Chevron's petroleum extractions nearby and the codifications of collective life introduced by multinationals and the State of Papua New Guinea alike. Located on the Great Papuan Plateau of Papua New Guinea, Onabasulu "clans" are largely an artifact of a certificate-based incorporation process and do not preexist the era of petroleum development. This "entification" of clans is matched by an entification of ethnic groups, which previously enjoyed soft (or "thick") rather than hard (or sharp) edges and boundaries. Various discourses-lineage histories, myths, other stories-are best viewed as instruments that political actors-the Onabasulu as a people, various clans, various individuals-use to embrace, contest, or manipulate the new codifications as these actors strive to position themselves competitively in relation to resources in an era of nationalist and capitalist penetration. "Land, Stories, and Resources" argues for a discourse-centered political ecology of Onabasulu modernity, one that recognizes the political and discursive roots of human-land relations in an unfolding and open-ended history predicated on an emerging politics of difference within a globalizing context. 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RP Ziervogel, G, Univ Cape Town, Stockholm Environm Inst, Climate Syst Anal Grp, Dept Environm & Geog Sci, ZA-7925 Cape Town, South Africa. AB Understanding of how best to support those most vulnerable to climate stress is imperative given expected changes in climate variability. This paper investigates local adaptation strategies to climate variability, focusing on agricultural decision-making in a communal irrigation scheme in Vhembe District, Limpopo Province, South Africa. Research done through interviews, surveys and participatory methods demonstrates that adaptation strategies within a community are socially differentiated and present differing objectives and priorities. These results highlight the need for intervention and policy that support a heterogeneous response to a wide range of stresses. Evidence for climate change is clear and the need for adaptation is urgent. However, adaptation measures have to be sensitively integrated with ongoing development pathways to ensure they are sustainable and relevant to local priorities. 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39 PY 1983 VL 7 IS 1 GA QK761 UT ISI:A1983QK76100001 ER PT J AU Schipper, L Pelling, M TI Disaster risk, climate change and international development: scope for, and challenges to, integration SO DISASTERS LA English DT Article C1 Univ London Kings Coll, Dept Geog, Hazards Vulnerabil & Risk Res Unit, London WC2R 2LS, England. AB Reducing losses to weather-related disasters, meeting the Millennium Development Goals and wider human development objectives, and implementing a successful response to climate change are aims that can only be accomplished if they are undertaken in an integrated manner. Currently, policy responses to address each of these independently may be redundant or, at worst, conflicting. We believe that this conflict can be attributed primarily to a lack of interaction and institutional overlap among the three communities of practice. Differences in language, method and political relevance may also contribute to the intellectual divide. Thus, this paper seeks to review the theoretical and policy linkages among disaster risk reduction, climate change and development. It finds that not only does action within one realm affect capacity for action in the others, but also that there is much that can be learnt and shared between realms in order to ensure a move towards a path of integrated and more sustainable development. 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Jet Prop Lab, Pasadena, CA 91109 USA. RP Gorman, HS, Michigan Technol Univ, Dept Social Sci, Houghton, MI 49931 USA. AB This paper introduces the five papers that follow, all of which were originally presented at a workshop titled "Monitoring the Environment: Scales, Methods, and Systems in Historical Perspective." The workshop, sponsored by the Society for the History of Technology and the American Society for Environmental History, examined past efforts to develop tools, methods, and systems for measuring or monitoring some aspect of the physical environment. Four of the papers included here focus on various aspects of air quality monitoring; the fifth has to do with monitoring the earth from space. Despite differences in time period and approach, each article examines how specific tools and methods - and the motivations for developing those tools and methods - evolved. Among other things, these papers make clear that systems for monitoring various aspects of the physical environment are shaped by a variety of stakeholders and suggest that efforts to construct such systems should not be viewed as a purely technical task. 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RP Oye, KA, MIT, Ctr Int Studies, 77 Massachusetts Ave, Cambridge, MA 02139 USA. AB Disputes over invocation of precaution in the presence of uncertainty are building. This essay finds: (1) analysis of past WTO panel decisions and current EU-US regulatory conflicts suggests that appeals to scientific risk assessment will not resolve emerging conflicts; (2) Bayesian updating strategies, with commitments to modify policies as information emerges, may ameliorate conflicts over precaution in environmental and security affairs. CR *EUR ENV AG, 2001, LAT LESS EARL WARN P *WTO, 1996, WTDS2ABR WTO *WTO, 1998, WTDS18ABR WTO *WTO, 1998, WTDS58ABR WTO *WTO, 1999, WTDS76ABR WTO *WTO, 2001, WTDS135ABR WTO CRANOR C, 2005, WATER SCI TECHNOL, V52, P65 GRAHAM J, 2003, PERILS PRECAUTIONARY MYHR AI, 2005, WATER SCI TECHNOL, V52, P99 NR 9 TC 1 J9 WATER SCI TECHNOL BP 59 EP 64 PY 2005 VL 52 IS 6 GA 987ZT UT ISI:000233557300009 ER PT J AU Ososkova, T Gorelkin, N Chub, V TI Water resources of Central Asia and adaptation measures for climate change SO ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING AND ASSESSMENT LA English DT Article C1 Main Adm Hydrometeorol, Tashkent 700052, Uzbekistan. RP Ososkova, T, Main Adm Hydrometeorol, 72Makhsumova Str, Tashkent 700052, Uzbekistan. AB A large part of the Central Asian region is located within the inner flow of the Aral Sea basin. The water resources are formed from renewed superficial and underground waters of natural origin, and also with returnable waters. The intensive increase of water intake, that took place in the second half of the twentieth century caused practically complete assimilation of the river inflow. That was the main reason for the Aral Sea crisis. On the basis of the analysis of long periodical rows of observation by meteorological and hydrological stations, the estimation of regional water resources and calculations of changes of some components of the hydrological cycle due to the expected climate changes are presented. Measures for adaptation in the southern part of the Aral Sea region are considered. CR 1994, GEN SCHEME USE IRRIG 1995, INFORMATION B INVENT KIM IS, 1996, SHORT TERM FLUCTUATI, P149 MUMINOV FA, 1995, VARIABILITY MIDDLE A, P215 OSOSKOVA TA, 1997, ANN REV SURFACE WATE NR 5 TC 0 J9 ENVIRON MONIT ASSESS BP 161 EP 166 PY 2000 PD MAR VL 61 IS 1 GA 300UB UT ISI:000086270100013 ER PT J AU Eakin, H TI Institutional change, climate risk, and rural vulnerability: Cases from central Mexico SO WORLD DEVELOPMENT LA English DT Article C1 Univ Calif Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, CA 93106 USA. RP Eakin, H, Univ Calif Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, CA 93106 USA. AB A multiscalar, multistressor assessment of rural vulnerability is presented, illustrating how globalization, market liberalization, and climatic risk simultaneously structure the livelihood strategies of Mexican smallholders. Ethnographic data collected in three communities are used to argue that farmers' capacities to manage climatic risk are circumscribed by the ways in which they are able to negotiate changes in agricultural policy. Four livelihood strategies are explored in detail to show that market integration does not necessarily improve risk management capacity, and that subsistence maize production-while highly sensitive to hazards-may actually serve to enhance livelihood stability. The dominance of economic uncertainty over environmental risk in households' decision making implies a continued role for government intervention to help households adapt to climatic stress. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *CONAPO, 1998, IND MARG LOC 1995 *INIFAP, 1998, CONV PROD TEMP EST T *WORLD BANK, 2001, WORLD DEV REP 2000 2 ADGER WN, 1999, WORLD DEV, V27, P249 APPENDINI K, 1992, MILPA TORTIBONOS RES APPENDINI K, 1998, TRANSFORMATION RURAL, P25 AUSTIN JE, 1987, FOOD POLICY MEXICO S BAFFES J, 1998, J INT DEV, V10, P575 BATTERBURY S, 1999, ENVIRONMENT, V41, P7 BEBBINGTON A, 1999, WORLD DEV, V27, P2021 BERNARD HR, 1994, RES METHODS ANTHR BLAIKIE PM, 1994, RISK NATURAL HAZARDS, V1, P1 BRUSH S, 1977, MOUNTAIN FIELD FAMIL BRYCESON DF, 1996, WORLD DEV, V24, P97 BRYCESON DF, 2002, WORLD DEV, V30, P725 CHIOTTI QP, 1997, AGR RESTRUCTURING SU, P201 CONDE C, 1998, GEO UNAM, V5, P26 CONDE C, 2000, MEXICO VISION HACIA, P119 CORNELIUS W, 1998, TRANSFORMATION RURAL DEJANVRY A, 1995, REFORMAS SECTOR AGR DEJANVRY A, 2001, WORLD DEV, V29, P467 DELEON EZP, 1996, SEGUNDO INFORME GOBI DEWALT BR, 1979, MODERNIZATION MEXICA DOWNING TE, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE WORLD, P185 EAKIN H, 2003, J ENV DEVC, V12, P414 GERBER J, 1995, NAFTA TRANSITION, P93 GLEDHILL J, 1995, NEOLIBERALISM TRANSN HEWITT K, 1983, INTERPRETATIONS CALA, P3 HOLZMANN R, 2000, 0006 WORLD BANK SOC KATES RW, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P5 KATES RW, 2001, SCIENCE, V292, P641 KELLY PM, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V47, P325 LEICHENKO RM, 2002, MITIGATION ADAPTATIO, V7, P1 LIVERMAN DM, 2001, GLOBAL ENV RISK, P201 MAGANA V, 1999, IMPACTOS NINO MEXICO MAGANA V, 2005, CAMIBO CLIMATICO VIS, P203 MARSH R, 1998, TRANSFORMATION RURAL, P277 MCMICHAEL P, 1994, GLOBAL RESTRUCTURING MORTIMORE MJ, 1989, ADAPTING DROUGHT FAR MORTIMORE MJ, 1999, WORKING SAHE ENV SOC MOUNT TD, 1994, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V27, P121 MYHRE D, 1998, TRANSFORMATION RURAL, P39 NADAL A, 1999, ENV TRADE SERIES, V6 NADAL A, 2000, ENV SOCIAL IMPACTS E NETTING R, 1993, SMALLHOLDERS HOUSEHO OBRIEN KL, 2004, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V14, P303 OBRIEN KL, 2000, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V10, P221 OCHOA EC, 1994, ESTADO AGR MEXICO AN REARDON T, 2001, WORLD DEV, V29, P395 SCOONES I, 1998, 72 IDS SEN AK, 1981, Q J ECON, V96, P433 SEN AK, 1990, POLITICAL EC HUNGER, P50 SMITH B, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P223 SMITHERS J, 1997, AGR RESTRUCTURING SU SNYDER R, 2001, POLITICS NEOLIBERALI TIMMERMANN A, 1999, NATURE, V398, P694 TURNER BL, 2003, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V100, P8074 WATTS M, 1983, ANTIPODE, V15, P24 WISNER B, 1977, THESIS CLARK U WOOST YAPA L, 1996, LIBERATION ECOLOGIES YOHE GW, 2001, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V12, P25 ZIMMERER KS, 1991, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V81, P443 NR 62 TC 2 J9 WORLD DEVELOP BP 1923 EP 1938 PY 2005 PD NOV VL 33 IS 11 GA 982QE UT ISI:000233175900009 ER PT J AU Zhao, YX Wang, CY Wang, SL Tibig, L TI Impacts of present and future climate variability on agriculture and forestry in the humid and sub-humid tropics SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 China Meteorol Adm, Chinese Acad Meteorol Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China. Peking Univ, Sch Phys, Beijing, Peoples R China. Phillippine Atmospher Geophys & Astron Serv Adm, Quezon City, Philippines. RP Zhao, YX, China Meteorol Adm, Chinese Acad Meteorol Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China. AB Although there are different results from different studies, most assessments indicate that climate variability would have negative effects on agriculture and forestry in the humid and sub-humid tropics. Cereal crop yields would decrease generally with even minimal increases in temperature. For commercial crops, extreme events such as cyclones, droughts and floods lead to larger damages than only changes of mean climate. Impacts of climate variability on livestock mainly include two aspects; impacts on animals such as increase of heat and disease stress-related death, and impacts on pasture. As to forestry, climate variability would have negative as well as some positive impacts on forests of humid and sub-humid tropics. However, in most tropical regions, the impacts of human activities such as deforestation will be more important than climate variability and climate change in determining natural forest cover. CR *FAO UNEP, 1981, FOR RES TROP AFR AS *FAO, 1997, STAT WORLDS FOR 1997, P200 WATSON RT, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, V1, P1 *IPCC, 1998, SPEC REP IPCC WORK G, P517 *IPCC, 2001, CONTR WORK GROUP 2 3, P1032 *NAT ASS STAT AUD, 1993, STAT LOC GOV SEC MAR, P5 *PAGASA, 2001, PAGASA PUBL ACEITUNO P, 1988, MON WEA REV, V116, P505 AMADORE LA, 1996, WATER AIR SOIL POLL, V92, P1 BAWA KS, 1998, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V39, P473 BAZZAZ FA, 1998, CLIMATE CHANGE, P177 BERMAN A, 1991, EAAP PUBLICATION, V55, P23 BOONPRAGOB K, 1996, WATER AIR SOIL POLL, V92, P107 BROWN HCP, 1990, SUSTAINABLE AGR SYST, P353 BUAN RD, 1996, WATER AIR SOIL POLL, V92, P41 CRUZ RVO, 1997, P IMP CLIM CHANG TRO DAVIS MB, 1992, GLOBAL WARMING BIOL, P297 ELLERY W, 1996, AFRICAN J RANGE FORA, V12, P38 FEARNSIDE PM, 1995, BIOMASS BIOENERG, V8, P309 GOLDAMMER JG, 1998, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V39, P273 GRANDSTAFF TB, 1981, CERES, V4, P28 GREGORY P, 1999, TERRESTRIAL BIOSPHER, P22 HAHN GL, 1997, P 5 INT LIV ENV S AM, P563 HAHN GL, 1999, J ANIM SCI S2, V77, P10 HASTENRATH S, 1993, J CLIMATE, V6, P743 HOLLAND GJ, 1997, J ATMOS SCI, V54, P2519 HOREL JD, 1986, MON WEATHER REV, V114, P2091 HULME M, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE SO AF, P96 IGLESIAS A, 1996, WATER AIR SOIL POLL, V92, P13 JALLOW BP, 1997, UNPUB REPUBLIC GAMBI KIRSCHBAUM MUF, 1998, P INT C TROP FOR CLI, P19 KLIN A, 1993, J AUTISM DEV DISORD, V23, P1 KOVATS RS, 1999, WHOSDEPHE994, P48 KROPFF MJ, 1995, MODELING IMPACT CLIM, P27 LAL R, 1991, ADV SOIL SCI, V15, P91 LINEAR M, 1985, ECOLOGIST, V15, P27 LUGO AE, 1988, ENVIRONMENT, V30, P16 LUGO AE, 1988, ENVIRONMENT, V30, P41 MACE GM, 1998, CONSERVATION CHANGIN, P308 MATTHEWS RB, 1995, MODELING IMPACT CLIM, P289 NIEUWOLT S, 1977, TROPICAL CLIMATOLOGY, P207 ODINGO RS, 1990, SOILS WARMER EARTH OECHEL WC, 1985, DIRECT EFFECTS INCRE, P117 OLIVER JE, 1984, CLIMATOLOGY INTRO, P381 OLIVER JE, 1984, CLIMATOLOGY, P198 PARRY ML, 1999, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V9, P51 PARTON WJ, 1996, GLOBAL CHANGE EFFECT, P229 PAUL BK, 1993, GEOGR REV, V83, P151 PHILLIPS OL, 1997, BIODIVERS CONSERV, V6, P291 PIMENTEL D, 1993, FORUM APPL RES PUBLI, V8, P54 POORE D, 1990, STUDY ITTO, P252 RAO VB, 1986, J CLIMATOL, V6, P43 ROSENZWEIG C, 1993, 3 ENV CHANG UN, P28 ROUNSEVELL MDA, 1999, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V43, P683 ROWN S, 1997, 134 FAO SHUKLA J, 1990, SCIENCE, V247, P1322 SINHA SK, 1998, ICAR PUBLICATION, P89 SKOLE D, 1993, SCIENCE, V260, P1905 SOLBRIG OT, 1992, ECOYSTEM REHABILITAT, V2, P63 SOMARATNE S, 1996, WATER AIR SOIL POLL, V92, P129 SOMARATNE S, 1996, WATER AIR SOIL POLL, V92, P129 WEBSTER CC, 1980, AGR TROPICS, P1 WHETTON P, 1994, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V28, P221 WIJERATNE MA, 1996, WATER AIR SOIL POLL, V92, P87 NR 64 TC 1 J9 CLIMATIC CHANGE BP 73 EP 116 PY 2005 PD MAY VL 70 IS 1-2 GA 942EG UT ISI:000230265100005 ER PT J AU Naess, LO Norland, IT Lafferty, WM Aall, C TI Data and processes linking vulnerability assessment to adaptation decision-making on climate change in Norway SO GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS LA English DT Article C1 Univ Oslo, CICERO, N-0318 Oslo, Norway. Univ Oslo, Program Res & Documentat Sustainable Soc, N-0317 Oslo, Norway. Western Norway Res Inst, N-6851 Sogndal, Norway. RP Naess, LO, Univ Oslo, CICERO, POB 1129 Blindern, N-0318 Oslo, Norway. AB The article focuses on the use of climate change vulnerability assessments in a local decision-making context, with particular reference to recent studies in Norway. We focus on two aspects of vulnerability assessments that we see as key to local decision-making: first, the information generated through the assessments themselves, and second, the institutional linkages to local level decision-making processes. Different research approaches generate different types of data. This is rarely made explicit, yet it has important implications for decision-making. In addressing these challenges we propose a dialectic approach based on exchange, rather than integration of data from different approaches. The focus is on process over product, and on the need for anchoring vulnerability assessments in local decision-making processes. In conclusion, we argue that there is unlikely to be one single 'correct' assessment tool or indicator model to make vulnerability assessments matter at a local level. (C) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *ACIA, 2004, ARCT CLIM CHANG IMP *MIN ENV MIN LOC G, 1997, T597 MIN ENV *NVE, 1999, GUID LAND US SAF FLO AAHEIM A, 2004, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V14, P147 AALL C, 2003, 303 VF W NORW RES I AALL C, 2003, REGIONAL SUSTAINABLE AALL C, 2004, 204 PROSUS U OSL ADGER WN, 2000, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V90, P738 ADGER WN, 2004, 7 U E ANGL TYND CTR BACKSTRAND K, 2002, BERL C KNOWL SUST TR BERG H, 2004, 39 FLOOD COAST MAN C BERKHOUT F, 1999, INSIGHTS, V30, P1 BERKHOUT F, 2002, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V12, P83 BJORNAES T, 2002, 52002 PROSUS U OSL BJORNAES T, 2002, REALIZING RIO NORWAY BJORNAES T, 2004, NORWEGIAN MONITOR, V21 BURTON I, 2002, CLIM POLICY, V2, P145 CARTER TR, 1994, 1 SESS C PART UN FRA CARTER TR, 1994, TECHNICAL GUIDELINES CASH DW, 2000, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V10, P109 CASH DW, 2003, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V100, P8086 CUTTER SL, 1993, LIVING RISK CUTTER SL, 2003, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V93, P1 DESSAI S, 2003, 34 U E ANGL TYND CTR DOWNING TE, 2004, 3 UNDP FORD JD, 2004, ARCTIC, V57, P389 FUSSEL HM, IN PRESS CLIMATE CHA GODDARD L, 2001, INT J CLIMATOL, V21, P1111 GROVEN K, UNPUB NATURAL DISAST IVERSEN T, 2003, NORWEGIAN CICERONE, V5, P20 JACOBS K, 2005, ENVIRONMENT, V47, P6 LEMOS MC, 2005, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V15, P57 LINDSETH G, 2003, 2003 HAMB C DISC MAT LINDSETH G, 2004, 404 PROSUS U OSL LINDSETH G, 2005, J ENV POLICY PLANNIN, V1, P61 LISO KR, 2003, BUILD RES INF, V31, P200 LIVERMAN DM, 2002, CLIMATE RES, V21, P199 LORENZONI I, 2000, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V10, P145 LORENZONI I, 2000, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V10, P57 MALONE EL, 2001, CLIMATE RES, V19, P173 MOSER SC, 2005, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V15, P353 NAESS LO, 2005, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V15, P125 OBRIEN KL, 2004, 200404 CICERO OBRIEN KL, 2004, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V64, P193 OBRIEN KL, 2003, PLAN TIDSKRIFT SAMFU, V5, P12 PATT A, 2005, CR GEOSCI, V337, P411 PATT A, 2005, CR GEOSCI, V337, P425 SCHROTER D, 2005, MITIGATION ADAPTATIO, V10, P573 TURNER BL, 2003, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V100, P8074 WILBANKS TJ, 1999, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V43, P601 WILBANKS TJ, 2003, CLIM POLICY S1, V3, S147 WILBANKS TJ, 2004, BRIDG SCAL EP LINK L YOUNG O, 1998, 9 IHDP NR 53 TC 0 J9 GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANGE BP 221 EP 233 PY 2006 PD MAY VL 16 IS 2 GA 051NM UT ISI:000238167800010 ER PT J AU Gibbons, JM Ramsden, SJ TI Robustness of recommended farm plans in England under climate change: A Monte Carlo simulation SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 Univ Nottingham, Div Agr Sci, Loughborough LE12 5RD, Leics, England. RP Gibbons, JM, Univ Nottingham, Div Agr Sci, Sutton Bonington Campus, Loughborough LE12 5RD, Leics, England. AB A methodology is described for estimating robustness of recommended farm plans under climate change while maintaining a meaningful representation of the underlying farm system. Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) of crop yield data is used in conjunction with a fully specified farm-level model and output from a field worktime model. Estimates of farm net margin, enterprise mix (choice and area of enterprises), labour, machinery, storage and animal housing under mean crop yields and field worktimes for current (2000s) and 2050s conditions are generated. MCS is used to estimate the effect of crop yield variation on farm profitability and enterprise mix for the same periods by running the farm-level model with no constraints and running it constrained to the mean data plan. Estimates of robustness, measured as the percentage difference and the probability of exceeding the mean farm net-margin, were calculated from the outputs from these runs. For three representative farm types, mean farm net margin increased; however changes in robustness as shown by percentage difference in farm net margin depended on farm type while the probability of exceeding the mean plan net-margin decreased by 2050 indicating an increase in robustness. The most robust farm type had a diversified mix of enterprises and required no additional fixed resources by the 2050s. The least robust farm type was in a marginal location and mean plan recommendations for the 2050s required additional investment in fixed resources, particularly irrigation. It is concluded that the information provided by the methodology would be particularly useful to farmers: where mean data plans are not robust, MCS results could be used with financial planning techniques to minimise the impact of variability, rather than using high cost inputs to reduce variability per se. CR ACKRILL RW, 2001, EUR REV AGRIC ECON, V28, P207 ALDERMAN G, 1993, ENERGY PROTEIN REQUI BOWMAN AW, 1997, APPL SMOOTHING TECHN BRYANT CR, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P181 CHADWICK L, 1997, FARM MANAGEMENT HDB DASH, 1997, XPRESS MP USER GUIDE DILLON CR, 2001, AM AGR EC ASS ANN M DOWLE K, 1990, AGR WATER MANAGE, V18, P101 EASTERLING WE, 1992, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V59, P53 EASTERLING WE, 1992, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V59, P75 EASTERLING WE, 1993, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V24, P23 HOSSELL J, 2001, CC0333 DEFRA HULME M, 1998, 1 UK CLIM IMP PROGR IHAKA R, 1996, J COMPUTATIONAL GRAP, V5, P299 KAISER HM, 1993, AM J AGR ECON, V75, P387 KIMBALL BA, 1993, VEGETATIO, V104, P65 MENDELSOHN R, 1994, AM ECON REV, V84, P753 NIX J, 1999, FARM MANAGEMENT POCK PANNELL DJ, 2000, AGR ECON, V23, P69 RAMSDEN S, 1999, AGR SYST, V62, P201 RAMSDEN S, 2000, FARM MANAGEMENT, V10, P606 REILLY JM, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P253 SCHIMMELPFENNIG D, 1996, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V33, P213 SCHNEIDER SH, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P203 SILVERMAN BW, 1986, DENSITY ESTIMATION S WEATHERHEAD EK, 1997, IRRIGATION DEMAND FA WILLIAMS JR, 1990, US DEPT AGR TECHNICA, V1768 ZEYUAN Q, 1998, AGR RES EC REV, V27, P231 NR 28 TC 0 J9 CLIMATIC CHANGE BP 113 EP 133 PY 2005 PD JAN VL 68 IS 1-2 GA 899ZF UT ISI:000227183700007 ER PT J AU Kiparsky, M Brooks, C Gleick, PH TI Do regional disparities in research on climate and water influence adaptive capacity? SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 Univ Calif Berkeley, Energy & Resources Grp, Berkeley, CA 94720 USA. Pacific Inst, Oakland, CA 94612 USA. RP Kiparsky, M, Univ Calif Berkeley, Energy & Resources Grp, 310 Barrows Hall, Berkeley, CA 94720 USA. AB As part of a long-term effort to both improve access to information on climate change and freshwater resources, and to understand the state of the science, we compiled an electronic bibliography of scientific literature in that area. We analyzed the distribution of information on climatic impacts on freshwater resources, with an emphasis on differences between developed and developing regions as well as differences in the types and focus of research carried out among regions. There has been more research overall in developed countries than in the developing world. Proportionally more of the available research on natural and human systems pertains to developed regions, while most of the analysis done in developing countries is limited to higher-level climatology and hydrology. We argue that scientific information and understanding are important elements of the ability to adapt to potential climatic changes. The distribution of the scientific literature in our database suggests that the types of science most directly relevant to adaptive capacity are skewed towards developed countries, which may exacerbate existing disparities in adaptive capacity, and ultimately worsen the consequences of climatic impacts in developing countries. CR 2000, WORLD COMMISSION DAM *UNESCO, 2001, STAT SCI TECHN WORLD AGARWAL A, 2002, CLIMATE CHANGE POLIC BAER P, 2002, CLIMATE CHANGE POLIC BRISCOE J, 1996, WATER SUPPLY, V14, P1 BRISCOE J, 1999, WATER RESOURCES DEV, V15, P459 BULLOCK A, 2003, CLIMATE CHANGES WATE, P60 CAMPBELL DJ, 1999, HUM ECOL, V27, P377 CHALECKI EL, 1999, J AM WATER RESOUR AS, V35, P1657 CLARKE AR, 1998, COMPREHENSIVE BIOL C, V3, P1 GARFIELD E, 1989, SCIENTIST, V3, P12 HAMMER GL, 2000, APPL SEASONAL CLIMAT HOLMGREN M, 2004, PLOS BIOL, V2, P10 HOUGHTON JT, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 ILBERY BW, 1997, AGR RESTRUCTURING SU KAHN HR, 2000, WATER RESOURCES DEV, V16, P21 KATES RW, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P5 MARX W, 2001, SCIENTOMETRICS, V52, P59 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 METZ B, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 MOENCH M, 2004, ADAPTIVE CAPACITY LI NELSON DR, 2000, PRACTICING ANTHR, V22, P6 VASQUEZLEON M, 2003, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V13, P159 WALLNER A, 2003, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V13, P185 NR 24 TC 0 J9 CLIMATIC CHANGE BP 363 EP 375 PY 2006 PD AUG VL 77 IS 3-4 GA 081HJ UT ISI:000240307600012 ER PT J AU Smithers, J Blay-Palmer, A TI Technology innovation as a strategy for climate adaptation in agriculture SO APPLIED GEOGRAPHY LA English DT Article C1 Univ Guelph, Dept Geog, Guelph, ON N1G 2W1, Canada. RP Smithers, J, Univ Guelph, Dept Geog, Guelph, ON N1G 2W1, Canada. AB Technological research and development are among the most frequently advocated strategies for adapting agriculture to possible future changes in climate. However, while many statements point to the reliance that is placed on technology, and to the power of induced innovation, the actual process of agricultural research and development has received little explicit consideration in the context of climatic constraints on food production. This paper offers both a descriptive assessment and empirical analysis of the place of technology research and development in climate adaptation research and planning. Insights into the assumed role of technology are developed through a review of the published literature and recent commentary. The role of technological innovation in the handling of climatic risks is then explored empirically in an analysis of innovation research and development in the Ontario soybean industry. This reveals an array of technological innovations that have helped Ontario soybean-growers manage climatic challenges to date, as well as a range of potential constraints on the innovation process itself. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *COUNC AGR SCI TEC, 1992, 119 CAST *ONT SOYB GROW MAR, 1988, ANN REP *ONT SOYB GROW MAR, 1998, SOYB VAR DISTR *USDA, 1990, MISCELLANEOUS PUBLIC, V1482 BAZZAZ F, 1996, GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANG BEVERSDORF WD, 1995, HARVEST GOLD HIST FI BLAIN R, 1995, 22 U GUELPH DEP GEOG BRKLACICH M, 1992, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V20, P1 BRKLACICH M, 1997, AGR RESTRUCTURING SU, P351 BRYANT CR, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P181 BURTON I, 1978, ENV HAZARD, V1, P1 CARTER TR, 1994, IPCC TECHNICAL GUIDE CHIOTTI QP, 1997, AGR RESTRUCTURING SU, P167 CHIOTTI QP, 1995, J RURAL STUD, V11, P335 CROSSON PR, 1983, AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON, V9, P339 CROSSON PR, 1989, SCI AM SEP, P128 DAMOTA FS, 1978, 160 WMO DAY P, 1995, 7 NAT AGR BIOT COUNC, P79 DUMANSKI J, 1986, J SOIL WATER CONSERV, V41, P204 EASTERLING WE, 1992, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V59, P3 EASTERLING WE, 1996, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V80, P1 EDWARDS CA, 1993, AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON, V46, P99 GLANTZ MH, 1988, SOC RESPONSES REGION, P113 GLANTZ MH, 1991, ENVIRONMENT, V33, P10 GOODMAN RM, 1987, SCIENCE, V236, P48 HAYAMI Y, 1985, AGR DEV INT PERSPECT HOUGHTON JT, 1990, IPCC SCI ASSESSMENT JOSEPH A, 1981, CAN GEOGR, V23, P333 KAISER HM, 1993, AGR DIMENSIONS GLOBA, P136 KLASSEN S, 1998, CANADIAN WATER RESOU, V24, P61 LEWANDROWSKI JK, 1992, EC ISSUES GLOBAL CLI, P132 LINSTONE HA, 1997, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V54, P1 MAJOR DJ, 1991, J PROD AGRIC, V4, P606 NELLIS MD, 1987, DEMANDS RURAL LAND P, P71 PARRY ML, 1988, IMPACTS CLIMATE VARI, V1 REILLY JM, 1998, SOIL TILL RES, V47, P275 ROSENBERG NJ, 1981, CLIMATES IMPACT FOOD, P157 ROSENBERG NJ, 1982, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V4, P239 ROSENBERG NJ, 1991, RESOURCES FUTURE, V103, P17 ROSENBERG NJ, 1992, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V21, P385 ROSENBERG NJ, 1993, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V24, P7 ROSENZWEIG C, 1994, NATURE, V367, P133 RUTTAN VW, 1996, CAN J PLANT PATHOL, V18, P123 SCHWEGER C, 1991, ALTERNATIVE FUTURES, P1 SEDEROFF R, 1995, 7 NAT AGR BIOT COUNC, P71 SMIT B, 1993, 19 U GUELPH DEP GEOG SMIT B, 1999, IN PRESS MITIGATION SMIT B, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P223 SMITH MJ, 1997, BRAIN RES BULL, V42, P1 SMITHERS J, 1997, AGR RESTRUCTURING SU, P167 SMITHERS J, 1997, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V7, P129 SPALING H, 1995, AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON, V53, P279 SPEDDING CR, 1996, AGR CITIZEN WARRICK RA, 1980, CLIMATIC CONSTRAINTS, P93 WHITE ME, 1994, CORNELL VET, V84, P1 NR 55 TC 0 J9 APPL GEOGR BP 175 EP 197 PY 2001 PD APR VL 21 IS 2 GA 444FW UT ISI:000169390300005 ER PT J AU DeFrance, SD Keefer, DK Richardson, JB Umire Alvaraez, A TI Late Paleo-Indian coastal foragers: Specialized extractive behavior at Quebrada Tacahuay, Peru SO LATIN AMERICAN ANTIQUITY LA English DT Article C1 Univ Florida, Dept Anthropol, Gainesville, FL 32611 USA. US Geol Survey MS 977, Menlo Pk, CA USA. Univ Pittsburgh, Carnegie Museum Natural Hist, Pittsburgh, PA 15260 USA. Museo Contisuyu, Moquegua, Peru. RP DeFrance, SD, Univ Florida, Dept Anthropol, Gainesville, FL 32611 USA. AB Quebrada Tacahuay, located on the south coast of Peru, is one of the oldest expressions of maritime adaptations in the Western Hemisphere. Excavations conducted in 1997 and 1998 indicate that humans focused their activities on the collection and butchering of marine birds, particularly cormorants and boobies, and other marine resources more than 10,290 years ago (uncalibrated radiocarbon years BP). In addition to abundant zooarchaeological remains, cultural material includes unifacial lithic tools and one worked marine mammal rib. We report on the use of marine resources at the site in conjunction with the taphonomic history of site formation. Geological data indicate that El Nino flood events initially occurred during the Pleistocene and at various times during the Holocene. The abundant use of seafood indicates that Quebrada Tacahuay represents a specialized coastal extraction station used by Late Paleo-Indian populations with a well-developed littoral adaptation. CR ALDENDORFER MS, 1998, MONTANE FORAGERS ASA DEFRANCE SD, 1998, 63RD ANN MTG SOC AM DEFRANCE SD, 1999, 64TH ANN MTG SOC AM DEFRANCE SD, 2002, CLOVIS CONTEXT NEW L DILLEHAY TD, 2000, SETTLEMENT AMERICAS DIXON EJ, 1999, BONES BOATS BISON AR FAGAN BM, 1995, ANCIENT N AM ARCHAEO KEEFER DK, 1998, SCIENCE, V281, P1833 LYNCH TF, 1983, ANCIENT S AM, P87 MCINNIS HE, 1999, THESIS U MAINE RICHARDSON JB, 1981, ANN CARNEGIE MUS, V50, P139 RICHARDSON JB, 1992, REV ARQUEOLOGIA AM, V6, P71 RICHARDSON JB, 1998, REVISTA ARQUEOL AM, V15, P33 SANDWEISS DH, 1989, ECOLOGY SETTLEMENT H, P35 SANDWEISS DH, 1996, SCIENCE, V273, P1531 SANDWEISS DH, 1998, SCIENCE, V281, P1830 STUIVER M, 1998, RADIOCARBON, V40, P1041 UMIREALVAREZ A, 1998, UNPUB INVENTARIO ARQ WALKER KJ, 2000, SE ARCHEOL, V91, P24 WISE K, 1999, B ARQUEOL PUCP, V3, P335 NR 20 TC 3 J9 LAT AM ANTIQ BP 413 EP 426 PY 2001 PD DEC VL 12 IS 4 GA 507GG UT ISI:000173018200004 ER PT J AU Hanemann, WM TI Adaptation and its measurement - An editorial comment SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Editorial Material C1 Univ Calif Berkeley, Dept Agr & Resource Econ, Berkeley, CA 94720 USA. Univ Calif Berkeley, Goldman Sch Publ Policy, Berkeley, CA 94720 USA. RP Hanemann, WM, Univ Calif Berkeley, Dept Agr & Resource Econ, Berkeley, CA 94720 USA. CR ADAMS R, 1989, POTENTIAL EFFECTS GL ADAMS R, 1995, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V30, P146 ADAMS RM, 1990, NATURE, V345, P219 ALCHIAN AA, 1950, J POLITICAL EC, V58, P211 BELSLEY DA, 1980, REGRESSION DIAGNOSTI BREIMAN L, 1985, J AM STAT ASSOC, V80, P580 BREIMAN L, 1993, CLASSIFICATION REGRE CROSSON PR, 1991, DOERL01830TH7 DUTTA PK, 1999, REV ECON STUD, V66, P769 FANKHAUSER R, 1997, WEATHERING CLIMATE C FISHER AC, 1993, ASSESSING SURPRISES FISHER AC, 1999, IMPACT GLOBAL WARMIN FREEDMAN D, 1997, ADV APPL MATH, V18, P59 HALL RL, 1939, OXFORD ECON PAP, V2, P12 KRASKER WS, 1983, HDB ECONOMETRICS, V1, P651 LANGE N, 1989, ANN STAT, V17, P624 LESTER R, 1947, AM ECON REV, V37, P135 LESTER RA, 1946, AM ECON REV, V36, P62 LEWANDROWSKI JK, 1999, AM J AGR ECON, V75, P39 MCCULLOCH JH, 1998, PRACTICAL GUIDE HEAV MENDELSOHN R, 1994, AM ECON REV, V84, P753 MENDELSOHN R, 1996, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V80, P55 MENDELSOHN R, 1999, AM ECON REV, V89, P1053 MENDELSOHN R, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P583 PACE RK, 1993, J REAL ESTATE FINANC, V7, P185 ROSENBAUM PR, 1999, STAT SCI, V14, P259 ROSENZWEIG C, 1994, NATURE, V367, P133 SIMON HA, 1955, Q J ECON, V69, P99 YOHE GW, 1996, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V32, P387 NR 29 TC 1 J9 CLIMATIC CHANGE BP 571 EP 581 PY 2000 PD JUN VL 45 IS 3-4 GA 324XH UT ISI:000087646800013 ER PT J AU Shepherd, P Tansey, J Dowlatabadi, H TI Context matters: What shapes adaptation to water stress in the Okanagan? SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 Univ British Columbia, Sustainable Dev Res Initat, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z2, Canada. Univ Oxford, Said Bus Sch, James Martin Inst Sci & Civilizat, Oxford OX1 1HP, England. RP Shepherd, P, Univ British Columbia, Sustainable Dev Res Initat, 1924 West Mall, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z2, Canada. AB This paper describes two case studies of demand-side water management in the Okanagan region of southern British Columbia, Canada. The case studies reveal important lessons about how local context shapes the process of adaptation; in these cases, adaptation to rising and changing water demand under a regime of increasingly limited supply in a semi-arid region. Both case studies represent examples of water meter implementation, specifically volume-based pricing in a residential area and as a compliance tool in a mainly farming district. While the initiative was successful in the residential setting, agricultural metering met with stiff resistance. These cases suggest many factors shape the character of the adaptation process, including: interpretation of the signal relative to context, newness of the approach, consumer values, and local and provincial political agendas. Although context has been explored in resource management circles, thus far climate change adaptation research has not adequately discussed the embeddedness of adaptation. In other words, how context matters and what aspects of context, unrelated to climate change, could encourage or thwart the act of adapting. This study is a simple illustration of the potential drivers, barriers and enabling factors that have influenced the adaptation process of water management decisions in the Okanagan. 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RP Volney, WJA, Canadian Forestry Serv, Nat Resources Canada, No Forestry Ctr, 5320-122 St, Edmonton, AB T6H 3S5, Canada. AB The forest sector in Canada makes a significant contribution to the wealth of the nation. Many of our forest ecosystems, like the phoenix, need fire for rebirth and renewal. In contrast, other forests rely on a cool, wet disintegration driven by insects and their commensal fungi feeding on trees to effect this renewal. This disparity has a manifest difference in the character of these forests and how they have developed and evolved over thousands of years. While there are characteristic natural temporal and spatial patterns to these disturbances, recent work has shown that they arc being perturbed by global change. Compounding these perturbations is the emergence of extensive anthropogenic disturbances in these forests. If humans continue trying to manage complex natural systems as though they were machines, problems with unknown consequences will compound. For example, we have only recently begun to understand that changes in disturbance regimes can generate positive feedbacks leading to what could amount to sudden and drastic change for certain forest communities. Systems-based techniques aimed at adapting to these consequences are emerging and win need to be implemented in a timely fashion to minimize the risks and maximize the opportunities associated with sustainable forest management under a changing climate. 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RP McMichael, AJ, Univ London London Sch Hyg & Trop Med, Dept Epidemiol & Populat Hlth, London WC1E 7HT, England. AB Global climate change is likely to have a range of consequences for human health as a result of disturbance or weakening of the biosphere's natural or human-managed Life support systems. The full range of potential human health impacts of global climate change is diverse and would be distributed differentially spatially and over time. Changes in the mortality toll of heatwaves and changes in the distribution of vector-borne infectious diseases may occur early. The public health consequences of sea level rise and of regional changes in agricultural productivity may not occur (or become apparent) for several decades. Vulnerability is a measure of both sensitivity to climate change and the ability to adapt in anticipation of, or in response to, its impacts. The basic modes of adaptation to climate-induced health hazards are biological, behavioural and social. Adaptation can be undertaken at the individual, community and whole-population levels. Adaptive strategies should not introduce new health hazards. Enhancement of the acknowledged public health infrastructure and intervention programmes is essential to reduce vulnerability to the health impacts of climate change. In the longer-term, fundamental improvements in the social and material conditions of life and in the reduction of inequalities within and between populations are required for sustained reduction in vulnerability to environmental health hazards. CR *IFRC, 1996, WORLD DIS REP 1996 WATSON RT, 1998, REGIONAL IMPACTS CLI, V1, P1 *WCHE, 1992, OUR PLAN OUR HLTH *WHO, 1993, GLOB STRAT MAL CONTR *WHO, 1996, CTDPR971 WHO *WHO, 1998, WHO COMM ID CONSTR S *WMO, 1997, M EXP CLIM HUM HLTH BLAIKIE PM, 1994, RISK NATURAL HAZARDS, V1, P1 BOUMA MJ, 1996, TROP MED INT HEALTH, V1, P86 BOUMA MJ, 1997, JAMA-J AM MED ASSOC, V278, P1772 BOUMA MJ, 1997, LANCET, V350, P1435 COLWELL RR, 1996, SCIENCE, V274, P2025 DAVIS DL, 1997, LANCET, V350, P1341 FRISANCHO R, 1991, HUMAN ADAPTATION FUN GLASS GE, 1993, APPL GIS TECHNOLOGY HAINES A, 1997, BRIT MED J, V315, P870 HALES S, 1996, LANCET, V348, P1664 HARDY IRB, 1996, LANCET, V347, P1739 HUNTER JM, 1993, PARASITIC DIS WATER KALKSTEIN LS, 1995, CLIMATE CHANGES INT, P124 KALKSTEIN LS, 1996, B AM METEOROL SOC, V77, P1519 KELLERMANN AL, 1996, NEW ENGL J MED, V335, P126 KLEIN RJT, 1997, ADAPTATION CLIMATE C KOVATS RS, 1998, REPORT WHO UNEP MRC LINDSAY S, 1998, IN PRESS B WHO, V78 MARTENS WJM, 1997, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V35, P145 MARTENS WJM, 1998, HLTH CLIMATE CHANGE MCMICHAEL AJ, 1996, WHOEHG967 MCMICHAEL AJ, 1997, AUST NZ J PUBL HEAL, V21, P425 MCMICHAEL AJ, 1997, ENVIRON MODEL ASSESS, V2, P129 MURRAY CJL, 1996, SCIENCE, V274, P740 NOIN D, 1994, ENV POPULATION CHANG, P363 OKE TR, 1997, APPL CLIMATOLOGY, P273 PATZ JA, 1996, ADAPTING CLIMATE CHA, P440 WOODWARD A, IN PRESS CLIMATE RES NR 35 TC 4 J9 ENVIRON MONIT ASSESS BP 49 EP 64 PY 2000 PD MAR VL 61 IS 1 GA 300UB UT ISI:000086270100004 ER PT J AU Weber, M Hauer, G TI A regional analysis of climate change impacts on Canadian agriculture SO CANADIAN PUBLIC POLICY-ANALYSE DE POLITIQUES LA English DT Article C1 Alberta Res Council, Edmonton, AB, Canada. Univ Alberta, Dept Rural Econ, Edmonton, AB, Canada. RP Weber, M, Alberta Res Council, Edmonton, AB, Canada. AB Climate change is expected to after production opportunities facing agricultural producers. Global studies of climate change impacts on agriculture suggest positive benefits for Canada. Results from Canadian studies tend to be more pessimistic; however, most of these studies are regionally specific and focus on the impacts on specific crops, particularly grains and oilseeds. This paper examines the impact of climate change on Canadian agricultural land values. Changes in land values are used to impute expected changes to agricultural GDP. We find that all provinces benefit from climate change and that previous estimates may be overly pessimistic. CR *CCIS, 2001, CAN CLIM IMIP SCEN C *CTR LAND BIOL RES, 1996, SOIL LANDSC CAN V 2 *ENV CAN LANDS DIR, 1976, LAND CAP AGR *IPCC, 2001, CLIM CHANG 2001 SYNT *SOIL CLASS WORK G, 1998, AGR AGR CAN PUBL, V1646 *STAT CAN, 1996, 1996 CENS AGR *STAT CAN, 1996, 1996 CENS CAN ADAMS RM, 1999, IMPACT CLIMAGE CHANG ALLEN LH, 1996, GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANG ARTHUR LM, 1992, PRAIRIE FORUM, V17, P97 BAUDER J, 1998, WATER NEEDS PULSE CR BEATTIE KG, 1981, AGR USE MARGINAL LAN BELSEY DE, 1980, REGRESSION DIAGNOSTI BOOTSMA A, 1999, CANADA COUNTRY STUDY BRKLACICH M, 1992, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V20, P1 BRKLACICH M, 1995, SPECIAL PUBLICATION, V59 BRKLACICH M, 1997, AGR RESTRUCTURING SU BRKLACICH M, 1999, CANADA COUNTRY STUDY CHAPMAN LJ, 1966, 3 DEP FOR RUR DEV CHIOTTI QP, 1997, AGR RESTRUCTURING SU DARWIN RF, 1995, 703 USDA DELCOURT G, 1995, J SUSTAIN AGR, V5, P37 EASTERLING WE, 1996, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V80, P1 GRIGG D, 1995, INTRO AGR GEOGRAPHY LEWANDROWSKI JK, 1999, LAND ECON, V75, P39 LEWIS JE, 1989, CANADIAN WATER RESOU, V14, P34 MCCRAE T, 2000, ENV SUSTAINABILITY C MENDELSOHN R, 1994, AM ECON REV, V84, P753 MENDELSOHN R, 1996, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V80, P55 MENDELSOHN R, 1999, IMPACT CLIMATE CHANG MOONEY S, 1990, CAN J AGR ECON, V38, P685 PRICE DT, 2000, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V101, P81 PRICE DT, 2001, TRANSIENT CLIMATE CH REINSBOROUGH MJ, 2003, CAN J ECON, V36, P21 SEGERSON K, 1999, IMPACT CLIMATE CHANG SINGH B, 1988, CLIMATE CHANGE DIGES SINGH B, 1991, AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON, V35, P327 SINGH B, 1998, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V38, P51 SMIT B, 1987, CLIMATE CHANGE DIGES SMIT B, 1989, CLIMATE CHANGE DIGES SMIT B, 1989, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V14, P153 SMIT B, 1992, CAN GEOGR, V36, P75 SMIT B, 1996, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V33, P7 NR 43 TC 0 J9 CAN PUBLIC POL-ANAL POLIT BP 163 EP 180 PY 2003 PD JUN VL 29 IS 2 GA 701YG UT ISI:000184196100003 ER PT J AU Antle, JM Capalbo, SM Elliott, ET Paustian, KH TI Adaptation, spatial heterogeneity, and the vulnerability of agricultural systems to climate change and CO2 fertilization: An integrated assessment approach SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 Montana State Univ, Dept Agr Econ & Econ, Bozeman, MT 59717 USA. Univ Nebraska, Sch Nat Resources Sci, Lincoln, NE 68583 USA. Colorado State Univ, Nat Resource Ecol Lab, Ft Collins, CO 80523 USA. RP Antle, JM, Montana State Univ, Dept Agr Econ & Econ, POB 172920, Bozeman, MT 59717 USA. AB In this paper we develop economic measures of vulnerability to climate change with and without adaptation in agricultural production systems. We implement these measures using coupled, site-specific ecosystem and economic simulation models. This modeling approach has two key features needed to study the response of agricultural production systems to climate change: it represents adaptation as an endogenous, non-marginal economic response to climate change; and it provides the capability to represent the spatial variability in bio-physical and economic conditions that interact with adaptive responses. We apply this approach to the dryland grain production systems of the Northern Plains region of the United States. The results support the hypothesis that the most adverse impacts on net returns distributions tend to occur in the areas with the poorest resource endowments and when mitigating effects of CO2 fertilization and adaptation are absent. We find that relative and absolute measures of vulnerability depend on complex interactions between climate change, CO2 level, adaptation, and economic conditions such as relative output prices. The relationship between relative vulnerability and resource endowments varies with assumptions about climate change, adaptation, and economic conditions. Vulnerability measured with respect to an absolute threshold is inversely related to resource endowments in all cases investigated. CR *IPCC WORK GROUP 2, 2001, CLIM CHANG 2001 IMP, P89 *NASS, 1999, PUBL EST DAT *SCS, 1981, USDA AGR HDB, V296, P156 *SCS, 1994, STAT SOIL GEOGR DAT ADAMS RM, 1990, NATURE, V345, P219 ADAMS RM, 1993, CONTEMP POLICY ISSUE, V11, P76 ADAMS RM, 1999, IMPACT CLIMATE CHANG, P18 ANTLE J, 2002, ENVIRON POLLUT, V116, P413 ANTLE JM, 1994, J AGR RESOUR ECON, V19, P1 ANTLE JM, 2001, AM J AGR ECON, V83, P389 ANTLE JM, 2001, EC POLICY REFORMS SU, P169 ANTLE JM, 2002, COMPREHENSIVE ASSESS, P243 CAMPBELL CA, 1997, SOIL ORGANIC MATTER, P317 DALY C, 1994, J APPL METEOROL, V33, P140 DARWIN RF, 1995, 703 USDA EC RES SERV DARWIN RF, 2000, ENVIRON MODEL ASSESS, V5, P157 EASTERLING WE, 1993, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V24, P23 EASTERLING WE, 2001, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V51, P173 HANSEN JW, 2000, AGR SYST, V65, P43 HOUGHTON JT, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995 KAISER HM, 1993, AM J AGR ECON, V75, P387 KAISER HM, 1999, GLOBAL ENV CHANGE AG, P221 LEWANDROWSKI JK, 1999, LAND ECON, V75, P39 LOVELAND TR, 1991, PHOTOGRAMM ENG REM S, V57, P1453 MELILLO JM, 1995, GLOBAL BIOGEOCHEM CY, V9, P407 METHERELL AK, 1993, 4 USDAARS GREAT PLAI OJIMA DS, 1993, WATER AIR SOIL POLL, V70, P643 PARTON WJ, 1994, SSSA SPEC PUBL, V39, P147 PARTON WJ, 1995, GLOBAL CHANGE BIOL, V1, P13 PAUSTIAN KH, 1996, PLANT SOIL, V187, P351 PAUSTIAN KH, 1997, SOIL PROCESSES CARBO, P459 PAUSTIAN KH, 1999, AGROECOSYSTEM BOUNDA ROSENZWEIG C, 1994, IMPLICATIONS CLIMATE SCHIMMELPFENNIG D, 1999, GLOBAL ENV CHANGE AG, P193 NR 34 TC 0 J9 CLIMATIC CHANGE BP 289 EP 315 PY 2004 PD JUN VL 64 IS 3 GA 816HR UT ISI:000221101500002 ER PT J AU Kates, RW TI Cautionary tales: Adaptation and the global poor SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Article RP Kates, RW, RR1,Box 169B, Trenton, ME 04605 USA. AB Many who study global change, particularly from industrialized countries, are optimistic about the capacity of agriculture to successfully adapt to climate change. This optimism is based on historic trends in yield increases, on the spread of cropping systems far beyond their traditional agroecological boundaries, and the inherent flexibility of systems of international trade. Analysis of the success (or in rare cases, failure) of adaptation is by analogy-either to analogous socioeconomic or technological change or to short term environmental change. Such studies have been limited to industrialized countries. This paper uses five analogs from developing countries to examine potential adaptation to global climate change by poor people. Two are studies of comparative developing country responses to drought, flood, and tropical cyclone and to the Sahelian droughts of the 1970s and 80s that illustrate adaptations to climate and weather events:. Two address food production and rapid population growth in South Asia and Africa. Three types of adaptive social costs are considered: the direct costs of adaptation, the costs of adapting to the adaptations, and the costs of failing to adapt. A final analog reviews 30 village-level studies for the role that these social costs of adaptation play in perpetuating poverty and environmental degradation. CR BLAIKIE PM, 1994, RISK NATURAL HAZARDS, V1, P1 BOHLE HG, 1994, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V4, P37 BORLAUG NE, 1971, 35 PRB BURTON I, 1978, ENV HAZARD, V1, P1 BURTON I, 1997, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V20, P1 DALBY D, 1977, DROUGHT AFRICA, V2 DOWNING J, 1987, DROUGHT FAMINE AFRIC DOWNING TE, 1997, MITIGATION ADAPTATIO, V2, P19 EASTERLING WE, 1996, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V80, P1 FISCHER B, 1894, ERGEBNISSE PLANKTON, V4, P1 GLAESER B, 1987, GREEN REVOLUTION REV GLANTZ MH, 1987, PLANNING DROUGHT RED, P297 GLANTZ MH, 1988, SOC RESPONSES REGION GLANTZ MH, 1988, SOC RESPONSES REGION, P113 GRIFFIN KB, 1974, POLITICAL EC AGRARIA HAZELL PBR, 1991, GREEN REVOLUTION REC JIRSTROM M, 1996, WAKE GREEN REVOLUTIO KARITN MB, 1986, GREEN REVOLUTION INT KATES RW, 2 CLARK ENV DEV CTR KATES RW, 1980, 32 USAID OFF EV KATES RW, 1981, MAZINGIRA, V5, P72 KATES RW, 1991, RR912 BROWN U AS FEI KATES RW, 1992, ENVIRONMENT, V34, P4 LIPTON M, 1989, NEW SEEDS POOR PEOPL ROSENBERG NJ, 1993, INTEGRATED IMPACT AS SHIVA V, 1991, ECOLOGIST, V21, P57 SOMRVILLE CM, 1986, DROUGH AID SAHEL DEC TURNER BL, 1993, POPULATION GROWTH AG WATSON RT, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, V1, P1 WISNER BG, 1977, THESIS CLARK U WORCE NR 30 TC 6 J9 CLIMATIC CHANGE BP 5 EP 17 PY 2000 PD APR VL 45 IS 1 GA 323WX UT ISI:000087588900003 ER PT J AU NAKICENOVIC, N NORDHAUS, WD RICHELS, R TOTH, FL TI INTEGRATED ASSESSMENTS OF MITIGATION, IMPACTS AND ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE-CHANGE - INTRODUCTION SO ENERGY POLICY LA English DT Editorial Material NR 0 TC 0 J9 ENERG POLICY BP 251 EP 252 PY 1995 PD APR-MAY VL 23 IS 4-5 GA RT375 UT ISI:A1995RT37500001 ER PT J AU Miles, WFS TI Pigs, politics and social change in Vanuatu SO SOCIETY & ANIMALS LA English DT Article RP Miles, WFS, NORTHEASTERN UNIV,DEPT POLIT SCI,BOSTON,MA 02115. AB Pigs have long held great symbolic import for the people of Vanuatu, a sprawling archipelago 1,000 miles northeast of Australia. In I?lost of the indigenous, small-scale communities which comprised traditional Vanuatu society, pig ownership and pig killing conveyed status, wen]th, and informal power. Such rituals were the sole measure of social standing and political rank. In this study, I show how the cultural valuation of an animal, in this case the pig, can evolve as a society undergoes socio-economic development, and also how it can be used to foster nationalistic partisan, and other political ends. I show how competing nationalist lenders used pig symbolism in their struggle to create a unified national identity for varying island groups, and how even today, local leaders derive their legitimacy through the manipulation of traditional animal rites. CR 1991, ECONOMIST 1214, P43 1995, BRIT FRIENDS VANUATU BEASANT J, 1984, SANTO REBELLION IMPE DAVEY GCL, 1994, SOC ANIM, V2, P17 FUNABIKI T, 1981, VANUATU POLITICS EC, P173 GEERTZ C, 1972, DAEDALUS, V101, P1 GOURGECHON C, 1977, JOURNEY END WORLD HARRIS M, 1966, CURR ANTHROPOL, V7, P51 HARRISSON TH, 1936, GEOGR J, V38, P97 HUME L, 1985, OCEANIA, V55, P272 JOLLY M, 1984, CANBERRA ANTHR, V7, P78 JOLLY M, 1994, WOMEN PLACE KASTOM C LAWRENCE E, 1985, HOOFBEATS SOC STUDIE LAWRENCE E, 1997, HUNTING WREN MACCLANCY J, 1988, INT J MORAL SOCIAL S, V3, P95 MARSHALL AJ, 1937, BLACK MUSKETEERS RAPPAPORT RA, 1967, PIGS ANCESTORS RITUA, V1, P1 RIVERS WHR, 1914, HIST MELANESIAN SOC RODMAN M, 1981, VANUATU POLITICS EC, P85 SHANKLIN E, 1985, ANNU REV ANTHROPOL, V14, P375 SPERLING S, 1988, ANIMAL LIBERATORS RE TONKINSON R, 1982, MANKIND, V13, P4 WILSON EO, 1984, BIOPHILIA NR 23 TC 0 J9 SOC ANIM BP 155 EP 167 PY 1997 VL 5 IS 2 GA XE817 UT ISI:A1997XE81700004 ER PT J AU BUTZER, KW TI ADAPTATION TO GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL-CHANGE SO PROFESSIONAL GEOGRAPHER LA English DT Article RP BUTZER, KW, UNIV CHICAGO,CHICAGO,IL 60637. CR 1979, 2 CTR TECHN ENV DEV *AM ASS ADV SCI WO, 1979, ENV SOC CONS POSS CO ADAMS JAS, 1977, SCIENCE, V196, P54 ADAMS RM, 1978, P AM PHILOS SOC, V122, P329 ALLAND A, 1975, ANN REV ANTHR, V4, P59 BENNETT JW, 1976, ECOLOGICAL TRANSITIO BOLIN B, 1977, SCIENCE, V196, P613 BOWLER JM, 1976, QUATERNARY RES, V6, P359 BUCKLEY W, 1968, MODERN SYSTEMS RES B, P490 BURTON I, 1978, ENV HAZARD, V1, P1 BUTZER KW, 1971, ENV ARCHEOLOGY ECOLO BUTZER KW, 1972, SCIENCE, V175, P1069 BUTZER KW, 1976, EARLY HYDRAULIC CIVI BUTZER KW, 1976, GEOSCIENCE MAN, V13, P27 BUTZER KW, 1977, ILLINOIS STATE MUSEU, V34, P1 BUTZER KW, 1978, GEOGR MAG, V51, P201 BUTZER KW, 1978, QUATERNARY RES, V10, P310 BUTZER KW, 1980, CAUSES CONSEQUENCES BUTZER KW, 1980, PHYSICAL GEOGR, V1, P42 BUTZER KW, 1980, TIMESCALES GEOMORPHO, P131 CLARK JA, 1978, QUATERNARY RES, V9, P265 DENTON GH, 1973, QUATERNARY RES, V3, P155 EHLERS E, 1971, TUBINGER GEOGRAPHISC, V44, P1 ELLIOTT WP, 1979, WORKSHOP GLOBAL EFFE FRENZEL B, 1973, CLIMATIC FLUCTUATION FRENZEL B, 1977, DENDROCHRONOLOGIE PO KEELING CD, 1976, TELLUS, V28, P552 KING JE, 1977, QUATERNARY RES, V8, P307 KIRCH PV, 1980, ADV ARCHAEOLOGICAL M, V3 LADURIE ELR, 1971, TIMES FEAST TIMES FA LAMARCHE VC, 1973, QUATERNARY RES, V3, P632 LAMB HH, 1977, CLIMATE, V2 MACDONALD G, 1979, JSR7807 SRI INT US D MACHTA L, 1977, FATE FOSSIL FUEL CO2, P131 MANABE S, 1975, J ATMOS SCI, V32, P3 MANNERS IR, 1974, PERSPECTIVES ENV MCCLURE HA, 1976, NATURE, V263, P755 MCLEAN DM, 1978, SCIENCE, V201, P401 MORNER NA, 1976, PALAEOGEOGR PALAEOCL, V19, P63 NICHOLS H, 1967, EISZEITALTER GEGENWA, V18, P176 ODUM EP, 1972, ECOSYSTEM STRUCTURE, P11 OLSON JS, 1978, CHANGES GLOBAL CARBO ROTTY RM, 1977, FATE FOSSIL FUEL CO2, P167 SCHNEIDER SH, 1976, GENESIS STRATEGY CLI SHACKLETON NJ, 1973, QUATERNARY RES, V3, P39 SIEGENTHALER U, 1978, SCIENCE, V199, P388 SINGH G, 1972, QUATERNARY RES, V2, P496 STREET FA, 1979, QUATERNARY RES, V12, P83 STUIVER M, 1978, SCIENCE, V199, P253 THOMAS WL, 1956, MANS ROLE CHANGING F VANZEIST W, 1978, REV PALAEOBOT PALYNO, V26, P249 WEBB T, 1972, QUATERNARY RES, V2, P70 WONG CS, 1978, SCIENCE, V200, P197 WOOD WR, 1976, PREHISTORIC MAN HIS WOODWELL GM, 1978, SCIENCE, V199, P141 NR 55 TC 33 J9 PROF GEOGR BP 269 EP 278 PY 1980 VL 32 IS 3 GA KG164 UT ISI:A1980KG16400002 ER PT J AU Cohen, SJ Neilsen, D Smith, S Neale, T Taylor, B Barton, M Merritt, W Alila, Y Shepherd, P McNeill, R Tansey, J Carmichael, J Langsdale, S TI Learning with local help: Expanding the dialogue on climate change and water management in the Okanagan Region, British Columbia, Canada SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 Univ British Columbia, Environm Canada, AIRG, Inst Resources Environm & Sustainabil, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z2, Canada. Agr & Agri Food Canada, Pacific Agr Res Ctr, Summerland, BC, Canada. Univ British Columbia, Inst Resources Environm & Sustainabil, Vancouver, BC V5Z 1M9, Canada. Environm Canada, Vancouver, BC, Canada. Univ British Columbia, Dept Forest Resources Management, Vancouver, BC V5Z 1M9, Canada. RP Cohen, S, Univ British Columbia, Environm Canada, AIRG, Inst Resources Environm & Sustainabil, 2029 W Mall, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z2, Canada. AB The research activity described in this report is a comprehensive regional assessment of the impacts of climate change on water resources and options for adaptation in the Okanagan Basin. The ultimate goal of the project is to develop integrated climate change and water resource scenarios to stimulate a multistakeholder discussion on the implications of climate change for water management in the region. The paper describes two main objectives: (a) providing a set of research products that will be of relevance to regional interests in the Okanagan, and (b) establishing a methodology for participatory integrated assessment of regional climate change impacts and adaptation that could be applied to climate-related concerns in Canada and other countries. This collaborative study has relied on field research, computer-based models, and dialogue exercises to generate an assessment of future implications, and to learn about regional views on the prospects for adaptation. Along the way, it has benefited from strong partnerships with governments, researchers, local water practitioners, and user groups. Building on the scenario-based study components, and a series of interviews and surveys undertaken for the water management and adaptation case study components, a set of stakeholder dialogue sessions were organized which focused on identifying preferred adaptation options and processes for their implementation. Rather than seeking consensus on the "best" option or process, regional interests were asked to consider a range of available options as part of an adaptation portfolio that could address both supply side and demand side aspects of water resources management in the Okanagan. CR 2003, WATERSHED NEWS *CAN BRIT COL CONS, 1974, SUMM REP CONS BOARD ALLEN RG, 1998, 56 FAO ARNELL NW, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 BRUCE J, 2000, WATER SECTOR VULNERA BURTON I, 2002, CLIM POLICY, V2, P145 CEBON P, 1998, VIEWS ALPS REGIONAL COHEN SJ, 2001, UNPUB WATER MANAGEME COHEN SJ, 2003, EXPANDING DIALOGUE C COHEN SJ, 2004, DECISION LOOK AHEAD, P175 COHEN SJ, 2004, EXPANDING DIALOGUE C COHEN SJ, 1997, MACKENZIE BASIN IMPA COHEN SJ, 2000, WATER INT, V25, P253 DAHINDEN U, 2003, PUBLIC PARTICIPATION, P105 DALY C, 1994, J APPL METEOROL, V33, P140 DELOE R, 2001, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V11, P231 DOWNING TE, 2003, PUBLIC PARTICIPATION, P187 EMBLEY E, 2001, WATER MANAGEMENT CLI, P8 GREGORY RS, 1994, MANAGE SCI, V40, P1035 HAMLET AF, 1999, J AM WATER RESOUR AS, V35, P1597 HAMLET AF, 2003, TRANSBOUNDARY CHALLE HISSCHEMOLLER M, 2001, INTEGRATED ASSESSMEN, V2, P57 HRASKO R, 2003, CONSERVATION OPTIONS IVEY J, 2001, STRENGTHENING RURAL JOHNSON C, 2004, VANCOUVER SUN 0709 KASEMIR B, 2003, PUBLIC PARTIICPATION KEENEY RL, 2001, RISK ANAL, V21, P989 LOUKAS A, 2002, J HYDROL, V259, P163 MENDELSOHN R, 1999, IMPACT CLIMATE CHANG MERRITT W, 2004, UNPUB EXPANDING DIAL, P63 MERRITT WS, UNPUB J HYDROLOGY MERRITT WS, 2003, EXPANDING DIALOGUE C, P27 MILES EL, 2000, J AM WATER RESOUR AS, V36, P399 MILLER KA, 2000, DROUGHT GLOBAL ASSES, V2, P70 MOORHOUSE J, 2003, PRENTICTON HERA 0731 MORRISON J, 2002, J HYDROL, V263, P230 MOTE P, 1999, JISAO CONTRIBUTION NEILSEN D, 2001, IMPACT CLIMATE CHANG NEILSEN D, 2003, UNPUB EXPANDING DIAL, P58 NEILSEN D, 2004, EXPANDING DIALOGUE C, P115 QUICK MC, 1995, COMPUTER MODELS WATE, P233 ROTMANS J, 1996, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V34, P327 SCHLUMPF C, 2001, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V51, P199 SCHRINER D, 1998, REGIONAL IMPACTS CLI, P253 SHEPHERD P, UNPUB CLIM CHANGE SHEPHERD P, 2004, EXPANDING DIALOGUE C, P137 SMIT B, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 SQUIRE JP, 2000, KELOWNA DAILY C 0903 STEEVES J, 2001, KELOWNA CAPITAL 0314 TANSEY J, 2002, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V12, P97 TANSEY J, 2004, EXPANDING DIALOGUE C, P165 TAYLOR B, 2003, EXPANDING DIALOGUE C, P16 VANASSELT MBA, 2002, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V12, P167 VANDEKERKHOF M, 2004, DEBATING CLIMATE CHA NR 54 TC 0 J9 CLIMATIC CHANGE BP 331 EP 358 PY 2006 PD APR VL 75 IS 3 GA 046EC UT ISI:000237793200003 ER PT J AU Hall, TJ Walker, RW TI Pasture legume adaptation to six environments of the seasonally dry tropics of north Queensland SO TROPICAL GRASSLANDS LA English DT Article C1 Dept Primary Ind & Fisheries, Youngstown, OH 44555 USA. RP Hall, TJ, Dept Primary Ind & Fisheries, POB 308, Youngstown, OH 44555 USA. AB Production, regeneration and persistence of summer-growing pasture legumes were studied in plots (26 accessions) in 3 sub-coastal environments (> 600 m elevation) and in rows (92 accessions) in 3 inland environments (< 200 m elevation) in the seasonally dry tropics of north Queensland. In the plots, the annuals Aeschynomene americana and Centrosema pascuorum and the perennials Stylosanthes scabra, S. hamata and Chamaecrista rotundifolia were most productive, yielding up to 4.5 and 7.6 t/ha DM, respectively, on grey and red earths and a red duplex soil. Annuals regenerated poorly in low rainfall years, but populations and production of the Stylosanthes species and C rotundifolia cv. Wynn remained adequate for commercial pastures in all years, and increased in a high rainfall year. Macroptilium gracile cv. Maldonado was planted at only one site and produced a peak yield of 6.2 t/ha DM and had most spread (> 30 m) during the experiment. In the row experiments, legume establishment and production were restricted by drought on the red earth and grey clay soils, and by waterlogging on a hard-setting solodic soil. After 4 years of drought and grazing, none of the 72 legumes sow on the fertile red earth had survived, although there was subsequent regeneration from seed. Desmanthus species and Clitoria ternatea were most productive and persistent, over 15 years, on the cracking clay soil, and Stylosanthes scabra cv. Seca and S. hamata cv. Verano were the only survivors on the solodic soil. Environmental limitations of the current pasture legume cultivars havebeen identified and legume genera are suggested for further evaluation and development under commercial grazing management and for special purpose pastures in these environments. CR BETHEL J, 1996, TROP GRASSLANDS, V30, P110 BISHOP HG, 1985, QUEENSLAND AGR J, V111, P241 BLUMENTHAL MJ, 1993, TROPICAL GRASSLANDS, V27, P16 BURROWS DM, 1993, TROP GRASSLANDS, V27, P100 CAMERON DG, 1986, QUEENSLAND AGR J, V112, P59 CLEM RL, 1994, AUST J EXP AGR ANIM, V34, P161 CLEMENTS RJ, 1996, TROP GRASSLANDS, V30, P31 CLEMENTS RJ, 1996, TROP GRASSLANDS, V30, P389 COATES DB, 1997, TROP GRASSLANDS, V31, P494 COOK SJ, 1993, TROP GRASSLANDS, V27, P335 COOKSON MR, 2003, NEUROMOL MED, V3, P1 EDYE LA, 1991, TROP GRASSLANDS, V25, P1 GARDINER CP, 1995, TROP GRASSLANDS, V29, P183 GILBERT MA, 1987, AUSTR J EXPT AGR, V27, P93 HALL TH, 1985, TROPICAL GRASSLANDS, V19, P156 HALL TJ, 1978, TROPICAL GRASSLANDS, V12, P10 HALL TJ, 1987, AUSTR PLANT INTRO RE, V19, P1 HALL TJ, 1995, TROP GRASSLANDS, V29, P169 HALL TJ, 2004, ACIAR MONOGRAPH, V111, P51 HOLROYD RG, 1983, AUST J EXP AGR ANIM, V23, P4 MCCOSKER TH, 1975, QUEENSLAND AGR J, V101, P222 MILLS AK, 1997, MYCOLOGIST, V11, P31 MOTT JJ, 1976, AUST J AGR RES, V27, P811 NORTHCOTE KH, 1979, FACTUAL KEY RECOGNIT PARTRIDGE I, 1996, INFORM SERIES Q19601 PARTRIDGE IJ, 1992, TROP GRASSLANDS, V26, P263 PENGELLY BC, 1996, CS054185 MRC CSIRO Q PENGELLY BC, 1996, DAQ053081 MRC CSIRO PENGELLY BC, 1996, TROP GRASSLANDS, V30, P298 WALKER BH, 1990, TROP GRASSLANDS, V24, P257 WILLIAMS J, 1984, BIOL AGRONOMY STYLOS, P181 WINKS L, 1973, TROPICAL GRASSLANDS, V7, P201 WINTER WH, 1996, AUST J EXP AGR, V36, P947 YUHAENI S, 1994, TROP GRASSLANDS, V28, P1 NR 34 TC 0 J9 TROP GRASSLANDS BP 182 EP 196 PY 2005 PD SEP VL 39 IS 3 GA 018XL UT ISI:000235798000006 ER PT B AU Timmerman, P TI Vulnerability, Resilience and the Collapse of Society SO ENV MONOGRAPH DT Book C1 University of Toronto, Institute of Environmental Studies, Toronto, Canada AB The impetus for this paper came from two sources. First, the concern for the development of a competent social component in the World Climate Program being undertaken by the World Meteorological Organization led to the following declaration by the World Climate Conference of one main objective of their Impact Study Program: Determining the characteristics of human societies at different levels of development and in different natural environments which make them either specially vulnerable or specially resilient to climatic variability and change and which also permit them to take advantage of the opportunities posed by such changes (WMO 1980). Admirable as this objective is, it is difficult not to see it as partaking in the general vagueness which attends much of climatic impact assessment at the present time, and which has been admirably described by Kates (1980): The underlying assumptions of models are poorly defined. Studies with widely varying subject matter are characterized under a common rubric of impact study. Techniques are poorly developed methodologically and are weakly integrated beyond the discipline in which they were first initiated. For example, it is hard to say just what “vulnerability” and ”resilience” are. One source of this paper, then, was a concern that some of the concepts coming to the forefront in the fast growing subject of climatic impact assessment. were under-examined. Some discussion of terms, concepts, and models - those often unconscious shapers of research frameworks - seemed advisable. Munn (1979) makes the distinction between a climate impact assessment and a climate impact study, of which the first is a policy-shaping document, and the second a research or applied study. It is worth taking steps to ensure that we are not falling between both these categories, and are instead about to embark on policy disguised as research. The second source for this paper was the particular concernofthe Atmospheric Environment Service (Environment Canada) that the Canadian Climate Program should be as effective as possible. Atmospheric Environment has a long and enlightened tradition of concern for climatic impacts and the welfare of the users of the meteorological imformation it provides. To this end, it has provided funding for projects at the Institute for Environmental Studies and elsewhere which attempt to bridge the gap between the technical and the social use of climatic information. In the present instance, it will be noted that, apart from a predominance of references to instances of climatic resilience and vulnerability, and the discussion in the last section of this paper, there is little here of direct or immediate relevance to the daily requirements of AES. On the one hand, one could ascribe this to the typical result of much of social science (to the despair of the “hard” scientist), which inevitably concludes that the problem is itself problematic; on the other, it could be that what is presented here is only one part of an immensely difficult attempt to say anything worthwhile about the relationship between climate and society - the charting of the interactions between a system indeterminate through sheer complexity, and a system indeterminate through sheer complexity and sheer humanity. CR BURTON I, 1978, ENV HAZARD, V1, P1 HOLLING CS, 1973, ANNUAL REV ECOLOGY S, V4, P1 RAPPAPORT RA, 1977, EVOLUTION SOCIAL SYS, V1, P49 WHITE GF, 1974, NATURAL HAZARDS LOCA, V1, P1 NR 3 TC 0 BP 1 EP 45 PY 1981 VL 1 IS 1 ER PT J AU Little, MA Garruto, RM TI Human adaptability research into the beginning of the third millennium SO HUMAN BIOLOGY LA English DT Article C1 SUNY Binghamton, Dept Anthropol, Binghamton, NY 13902 USA. RP Little, MA, SUNY Binghamton, Dept Anthropol, Binghamton, NY 13902 USA. AB Human adaptability, as a field of inquiry within human biology, became defined during the research activities of the International Biological Program (IBP) (1964-1974). During this period, research was focused on ecological, physiological, and genetic studies of human populations within the theoretical frameworks of adaptation and evolution. Other defining characteristics of the IBP human adaptability research were standardization of methods, multidisciplinary projects, international cooperation, and a concern with human health issues. Some observers suggest that this research contributed to the ongoing transformation of physical anthropology and related fields from a largely descriptive to an analytical science. During the 25 years between the end of the IBP and the present, a number of research trends have continued: Several new multidisciplinary projects were initiated and completed; a subfield of demography within human biology has matured; nutrition, infant and child growth, and health studies have proliferated; and molecular generics and DNA analysis have superseded the earlier population genetics. International programs today are geared toward more practical and applied studies with less emphasis on basic science. Continuation of human adapt ability research into the 21st century is likely to make contributions in 3 broad areas: population, environment, and health. Productive research is likely to contribute to these 3 areas in the following categories: reproduction, psychosocial stress, life span approaches to health, effects of losses in biodiversity on health, a human biology of poverty, emerging infectious diseases, epidemiology of modernization, evolutionary medicine, and aging. The success of much of this research in its contribution to knowledge will come from the integrated perspectives of a biobehavioral framework of inquiry. 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AM J HUM GENET, V51, A163 WILSON EO, 1988, BIODIVERSITY, P3 WOLFF EN, 1996, TOP HEAVY INCREASING WOOD JW, 1994, DYNAMICS HUMAN REPRO YOSHIMURA H, 1966, HUMAN ADAPTABILITY I ZEMEL BS, 1986, AM J PHYS ANTHROPOL, V71, P459 ZUBROW EBW, 1976, DEMOGRAPHIC ANTHR QU NR 129 TC 0 J9 HUM BIOL BP 179 EP 199 PY 2000 PD FEB VL 72 IS 1 GA 287KQ UT ISI:000085505400008 ER PT J AU Wigley, TML TI Choosing a stabilization target for CO2 SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 Natl Ctr Atmospher Res, Climate & Global Dynam Div, Boulder, CO 80307 USA. RP Wigley, TML, Natl Ctr Atmospher Res, Climate & Global Dynam Div, POB 3000, Boulder, CO 80307 USA. AB The choice of stabilization target for CO2 concentration depends on the following: what is considered to be 'dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system'; the forcings that might arise from non-CO2 gases; and the climate sensitivity. These three factors are specified here probabilistically, as probability density functions (pdfs), and combined to produce a pdf for the CO2 concentration target. There is a probability of 17% that the stabilization target should be less than the present level, and the median target is 536 ppm. The effects of reducing the emissions of non-CO2 gases and/or implementing adaptation strategies are considered probabilistically and shown to alter these figures significantly. 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Monash Univ, Sch Geog & Environm Sci, Clayton, Vic 3800, Australia. Univ Colorado, CIRES, Boulder, CO 80309 USA. RP Brunner, RD, Univ Colorado, Ctr Publ Policy Res, Boulder, CO 80309 USA. AB The purpose of the research reported here is to help the community in Barrow, Alaska, clarify its vulnerability to extreme weather events, and devise better-informed policies for reducing that vulnerability and adapting to climate variability and change. We examine the worst disaster on record there-a storm that struck on 3 October 1963-from different disciplinary perspectives and in the context of other severe storms. The major policy responses to date have been a beach nourishment program, a feasibility study of additional means of erosion control, and an emergency management plan. Additional possible responses have been identified in the community's cumulative experience of these storms, but have not yet been fully explored or implemented. 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RP Luo, QY, Univ Adelaide, Dept Geog & Environm Studies, Mawson Grad Ctr Environm Studies, Adelaide, SA 5005, Australia. AB During the last decades, a large number of climate change impact studies on agriculture have been conducted qualitatively and quantitatively in many regions of the Asia-Pacific. Changes in average climate conditions and climate variability will have a significant consequence on crop yields in many parts of the Asia-Pacific. Crop yield and productivity changes will vary considerably across the region. Vulnerability to climate change depends not only on physical and biological response but also on socioeconomic characteristics. Adaptation strategies that consider changes in crop varieties or in the timing of agricultural activities imply low costs and, if readily undertaken, can compensate for some of the yield loss simulated with the climate change scenarios. The studies reviewed here suggest that the regions of Tropical Asia appear to be among the more vulnerable; some areas of Temperate Asia also appear to be vulnerable. CR *AS DEV BANK, 1994, REG STUD GLOB ENV IS *INT PAN CLIM CHAN, 1996, CLIM CHANG 1995 IMP AGGARWAL PK, 1993, J AGR METEOROL, V48, P811 AMADORE LA, 1996, WATER AIR SOIL POLL, V92, P1 AMIEN I, 1996, WATER AIR SOIL POLL, V92, P29 ANGLO EG, 1996, REG WORKSH CLIM CHAN BAYASGALAN S, 1996, ADAPTING CLIMATE CHA, P164 BAZZAZ FA, 1996, GLOBAL CHANGE TERRES, P43 BRAMMER H, 1994, 3 BUP BUAN RD, 1996, WATER AIR SOIL POLL, V92, P41 DIAZ S, 1995, J BIOGEOGR, V22, P289 ESCANO CR, 1994, IMPLICATIONS CLIMATE HULME M, 1992, CLIMATE CHANGE DUE G IGLESIAS A, 1996, WATER AIR SOIL POLL, V92, P13 JIN Z, 1994, IMPLICATIONS CLIMATE, P1 KARIM Z, 1996, WATER AIR SOIL POLL, V92, P53 KAVALERCHIK S, 1995, OVERALL APPROACHES P, P49 LAL M, 1997, ATR196 IND I TECHN C LIN ED, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE VULNE, V92, P63 LIN JC, 1994, ADV ELECTROMAG FIELD, V1, P1 LU LS, 1991, PRODUCTIVE STRUCTURE LU LS, 1991, STUDIES MEDIUM LONG MATTHEWS RB, 1995, MODELING IMPACTS CLI PARRY ML, 1992, POTENTIAL SOCIOECONO PILIFOSOVA O, 1996, VULNERABILITY ADAPTA, P161 QURESHI A, 1994, IMPLICATIONS CLIMATE RAO DG, 1994, IMPLICATIONS CLIMATE RAO DG, 1995, ASA SPEC PUBL, V59, P325 TONGYAI C, 1994, IMPLICATIONS CLIMATE WANG JH, 1996, WATER AIR SOIL POLL, V92, P75 WIJERATNE MA, 1996, WATER AIR SOIL POLL, V92, P87 ZHANG H, 1993, CLIMATE CHANGE ITS I, P131 NR 32 TC 2 J9 CLIMATIC CHANGE BP 729 EP 743 PY 1999 PD DEC VL 43 IS 4 GA 248KD UT ISI:000083272900005 ER PT J AU Chu, CYC Tai, C TI Ecosystem resilience, specialized adaptation and population decline: A modern Malthusian theory SO JOURNAL OF POPULATION ECONOMICS LA English DT Article C1 Acad Sinica, Inst Econ, Taipei 115, Taiwan. RP Chu, CYC, Acad Sinica, Inst Econ, 21 Hsu Cho Rd, Taipei 115, Taiwan. AB The purpose of this article is to construct a theoretical framework characterizing the interactions among economic development, ecosystem equilibrium and possible population decline, and to discuss the population dynamics in the very long run. In our framework, economic activities bridge population and environment. On the one hand, human beings reform the environment through economic activities; on the other hand, economic activities decrease environmental resilience and increase the possibility of an environmental change in a discontinuous and irreversible pattern, as described in Arrow et al. (1995). Furthermore, a highly developed economy also causes over-specialization of human adaptation: which tends to exaggerate the impact of an environmental change on human population size. CR ARROW K, 1995, SCIENCE, V268, P520 CHU CYC, 1998, INCREASING RETURN EC CHU CYC, 1998, POPULATION DYNAMICS DARWIN C, 1964, ORIGIN SPECIES DOBZHANSKY T, 1961, AM SCI, V49, P285 GOODFRIEND M, 1995, AM ECON REV, V85, P116 GOULD J, 1977, EVER DARWIN REFLECTI HARVEY B, 1977, ENV SOC INTRO ANAL LEE RD, 1986, STATE POPULATION THE LI Y, 1996, J GEN EDUC, V3, P15 MALTHUS TR, 1789, ESSAY PRINCIPLE POPU MEADOWS DH, 1992, BEYOND LIMITS MEDAWAR PB, 1965, MAYO CLIN P, V40, P23 NERLOVE M, 1991, AM AGR EC ASS, V73, P1335 RENSHAW E, 1991, MODELLING BIOL POPUL SHAW JS, 1990, EC ENV RECONCILIATIO SMITH F, 1996, ECOL ECON, V16, P191 SWANSON TM, 1995, EC ECOLOGY BIODIVERS WILLIAMS GC, 1966, ADAPTATION NATURAL S YANG X, 1993, SPECIALIZATION EC OR ZIMMERMANN EW, 1951, WORLD RESOURCES IND NR 21 TC 0 J9 J POPUL ECON BP 7 EP 19 PY 2001 PD APR VL 14 IS 1 GA 434VZ UT ISI:000168837700002 ER PT J AU Bharwani, S Bithell, M Downing, TE New, M Washington, R Ziervogel, G TI Multi-agent modelling of climate outlooks and food security on a community garden scheme in Limpopo, South Africa SO PHILOSOPHICAL TRANSACTIONS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY B-BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES LA English DT Article C1 Stockholm Environm Inst, Oxford Office, Summertown OX2 7DL, England. Univ Cambridge, Dept Geog, Cambridge CB2 3EN, England. Univ Oxford, Sch Geog & Environm, Oxford OX1 3QY, England. Univ Cape Town, Dept Environm & Geog Sci, ZA-7701 Rondebosch, South Africa. RP Bharwani, S, Stockholm Environm Inst, Oxford Office, 266 Banbury Rd,Suite 193, Summertown OX2 7DL, England. AB Seasonal climate outlooks provide one tool to help decision-makers allocate resources in anticipation of poor, fair or good seasons. The aim of the 'Climate Outlooks and Agent-Based Simulation of Adaptation in South Africa' project has been to investigate whether individuals, who adapt gradually to annual climate variability, are better equipped to respond to longer-term climate variability and change in a sustainable manner. Seasonal climate outlooks provide information on expected annual rainfall and thus can be used to adjust seasonal agricultural strategies to respond to expected climate conditions. A case study of smallholder farmers in a village in Vhembe district, Limpopo Province, South Africa has been used to examine how such climate outlooks might influence agricultural strategies and how this climate information can be improved to be more useful to farmers. Empirical field data has been collected using surveys, participatory approaches and computer-based knowledge elicitation tools to investigate the drivers of decision-making with a focus on the role of climate, market and livelihood needs. This data is used in an agent-based social simulation which incorporates household agents with varying adaptation options which result in differing impacts on crop yields and thus food security, as a result of using or ignoring the seasonal outlook. Key variables are the skill of the forecast, the social communication of the forecast and the range of available household and community-based risk coping strategies. This research provides a novel approach for exploring adaptation within the context of climate change. CR *FAO, 2004, STAT FOOD INS WORLD *UNITAR, 2004, NATL ADAPTATION PROG ARCHER ERM, 2003, B AM METEOROL SOC, V84, P1525 BHARWANI S, 2004, THESIS U KENT, P57 BUCHLER I, 1986, ADV MATH ANTHR, P57 CLOVER J, 2003, FOOD SECURITY SUBSAH DOWNING TE, 2003, CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPT, P77 FISCHER M, 2002, CYBERNET SYST, V1, P367 FISCHER MD, 1980, THESIS U TEXAS AUSTI FISCHER MD, 1994, APPL COMPUTING SOCIA GILBERT N, 1999, SIMULATION SOCIAL SC GODDARD L, 2001, INT J CLIMATOL, V21, P1111 GOLDMAN A, 1995, HUM ECOL, V23, P291 KATES RW, 1985, CLIMATE IMPACT ASSES LIM B, 2005, ADAPTATION POLICY FR MCGRAW KL, 1989, KNOWLEDGE ACQUISITIO MURPHY SJ, 2001, NAT HAZARDS, V23, P171 PATT A, 2005, GEOSCIENCES, V337, P411 STAINFORTH DA, 2005, NATURE, V433, P403 STERN PC, 1999, MAKING CLIMATE FOREC WASHINGTON R, 1999, GEOGR J 3, V165, P255 ZIERVOGEL G, 2003, AREA, V35, P403 ZIERVOGEL G, 2004, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V65, P73 ZIERVOGEL G, 2004, GEOGR J 1, V170, P6 ZIERVOGEL G, 2005, AGR SYST, V83, P1 NR 25 TC 5 J9 PHIL TRANS ROY SOC B-BIOL SCI BP 2183 EP 2194 PY 2005 PD NOV 29 VL 360 IS 1463 GA 986CS UT ISI:000233427400017 ER PT J AU Macintyre, M Foale, S TI Politicized ecology: Local responses to mining in Papua New Guinea SO OCEANIA LA English DT Article C1 Univ Melbourne, Parkville, Vic 3052, Australia. Australian Natl Univ, Canberra, ACT, Australia. RP Macintyre, M, Univ Melbourne, Parkville, Vic 3052, Australia. AB Our paper draws on research in two sites where large goldmining projects are located Misima and Lihir islands in Papua New Guinea. We examine the socio-economic context in which criticisms of environmental degradation arise. We discuss the social and political meanings embedded in local demands for compensation for environmental damage, drawing attention to the disparities between local Melanesian conceptions of the environment and global, Western ideas that inform international environmentalist criticisms of mining. We dispute the 'romantic primitivism' of some environmentalist discourse, using the work of ethno-ecologists and case studies of specific incidents on these islands, contesting the view that there is a natural conservationist ethic in Melanesia. The image of the 'noble primitive ecologist' that some environmentalists appeal to, would in most circumstances be rejected by Melanesians as racist and paternalistic, but is embraced as a strategy in conflicts with mining companies and when making legal claims for compensation. Alliances formed between landowners, environmentalists and western lawyers against mining companies such as BHP and Rio Tinto are based more on shared political ends than on the epistemological consistency of their perceptions of environmental damage from mining. Local Melanesian communities claim sovereignty over all resources and their compensation claims for environmental degradation constitute a new form of resource rent. CR *DEP AGR LIV, 1993, DIDIMAN NEWSLETTER, V25 *PLAC DOM AS PAC S, 2000, UPD ACT SUST PDAP 19 *US DISTR COURT CE, 2000, COMPL *WORLD BANK, 2003, INT C HOST WORLD BAN AKIN D, 1999, CONTEMP PACIFIC, V11, P35 BANKS G, 1997, OK TEDI SETTLEMENT I BANKS G, 2000, ASIA PACIFIC VIEWPOI, V41, P217 BANKS G, 2002, CONTEMP PACIFIC, V14, P39 BAYLISSSMITH T, 2003, AMBIO, V32, P346 BREWER D, 2001, ASSESSMENT MINE IMPA BULMER R, 1982, TRADITIONAL CONSERVA, P59 BURTON B, 2000, MINING MONITOR, V5, P7 BYFORD J, 2001, ONE DAY RICH COMMUNI CLARKE WC, 1997, CONTEMP PACIFIC, V9, P12 CONNELL JH, 1978, SCIENCE, V199, P1302 ELLIS JA, 1997, RACE RAINFOREST, V2 EVANS G, 2001, MOVING MOUNTAINS COM FILER C, 1988, 21188 U PAP NEW GUIN FILER C, 1989, SOCIAL EC IMPACT GOL FILER C, 1997, LAW REFORM COMMISSIO, V6, P156 FILER C, 1998, MODERN PAPUA NEW GUI, P147 FILER C, 1998, POLICY WORKS FORESTS, V2 FLANNERY T, 1998, THROWIM WAY LEG HYNDMAN D, 2000, CULTURAL ANAL, V1, P15 KREBS C, 1994, ECOLOGY EXPT ANAL DI LUTZ C, 1993, READING NATL GEOGRAP MACINTYRE M, 1983, J PAC HIST, V18, P11 MAY RM, 1973, STABILITY COMPLEXITY MEAD AR, 1973, MALACOLOGIA, V14, P437 MOODY R, 2000, UNKNOWN REGIONS MORAUTA L, 1982, IASER MONOGRAPH, V16 RAPPAPORT RA, 1967, PIGS ANCESTORS RITUA, V1, P1 RAPPAPORT RA, 1971, MAN CULTURE SOC, P237 ROTMANN S, 2001, PROGR REPORT 2001 TI SCHMID CK, 1999, CHANGING PROJECTIONS, V36 SCOONES I, 1999, ANNU REV ANTHROPOL, V28, P479 SEMOS J, 1997, THESIS J COOK U STURZENHOFECKER G, 1994, CANBERRA ANTHR, V17, P27 THOMAS S, 2003, IN PRESS MARINE POLL VANHELDEN F, 1998, CASH CONVICTION SOCI VANHELDEN F, 2001, THICKET DISENTANGLIN WEINER J, 2001, MINING INDIGENOUS LI, P1 WORSLEY PM, 1957, TRUMPET SHALL SOUND NR 43 TC 0 J9 OCEANIA BP 231 EP 251 PY 2004 PD MAR VL 74 IS 3 GA 849ID UT ISI:000223531000003 ER PT J AU KRAPFENBAUER, A WRIESSNIG, K TI ANTHROPOGENIC ENVIRONMENTAL-POLLUTION - THE SHARE OF AGRICULTURE SO BODENKULTUR LA German DT Article RP KRAPFENBAUER, A, AGR UNIV VIENNA,INST WALDOKOL,PETER JORDAN STR 82,A-1190 VIENNA,AUSTRIA. AB The increase of environmental pollution is in direct relation to the consumption of fossil coal, gas and oil and the progressive growth of the world population. Since 1950 these issues increased considerably and they will continue to increase in the future. At the moment the population increases by 1.9 %, the consumption of energy between 2 and 3 % and the environmental pollution up to 3.5 % annually. With the progressive growth of the world population and the increase in prosperity in the developed countries the demand for food increased also progressively and therewith the productivity index of the units of arable land, by growing consumption of fertilizers and the installation of irrigation systems. At the same time the pollution of air, water and soil caused by agriculture also grew progressively. But up to date there is still a shortcoming of reliable statistical facts and figures. A higher productivity index of the units of arable land in the different ecoclimatic zones of the earth leads to higher production and consumption by an inevitably higher turnover of plant nutrients and diverse gaseous substances, for example carbon mono- and dioxide, diverse compounds of nitrogen etc. At the same time an excess of the ''critical loads'' for soil, air and water must be expected. The main items of the emissions produced by an intensified agriculture are, besides carbon mono- and dioxide, methane, nitric and nitrous oxide, ammonia and diverse hydrocarbons. A higher productivity index is consequently related to a higher consumption. This also leads to an intensified turnover of carbon dioxide. There is consequently a progressive input of carbon dioxide resulting from the emissions of burning fossil fuel in the recently produced and consumed biomass. This inevitably leads to a higher level of carbon dioxide in the air. A main source of emissions of methane and ammonia is animal breeding. In Austria at this time from each of the 3,508.000 hectars of land used by agriculture annual emissions of 63 kg methane and 11 kg ammonia are resulting theoretically. The use of organic and inorganic fertilizers, the growing cultivation of legumes and the emissions of nitrogen compounds resulting from burning processes elevate likewise the pool and the annual turnover of nitrogen compounds by production and consumption of biomass. Inevitably related to it is a growing amount of the annual input of nitrogen compounds to the air, the soil and the water. A rough approximation says that at present agriculture contributes to the global anthropogenic pollution of the environment (air, soil and water) 85 % of the ammonia, 81 % of the nitrous oxide, 35 % of nitric mono- and dioxide, 70 % of the methane, 52 % of the carbon monoxide and 21 % of the carbon dioxide. Not considered in the figure for carbon dioxide is the inevitable increase of the level of CO2 in the air by the elevated turnover of biomass. The world population growth in the future leads to an increasing contribution of agriculture to the anthropogenic environmental pollution. For the developed countries this is an obligatory challenge to avoid surplus production. On a global scale there must be a sensible reduction of animal breeding to reduce the high emissions of methane and ammonia from this sector of agriculture. It must also be considered, that by feeding animals with vegetable food stuff, which also could be used for direct nutrition of man, the efficiency of it is lowered by a factor of 1:10. In spite of a growing crisis to maintain the alimentation of the growing world population in many countries the nutrition of man must rapidly be centered on vegetable food stuff rich in protein. At the same time an essential reduction of the environmental pollution resulting from animal breeding could be realized. Beside of it and other reducing issues a continuous growth of the world population, the energy consumption and environmental pollution will make it necessary to observe the development and reactions in the environment by monitoring and phenological observations. The results must be used to counteract finally by looking for adaptation strategies. Considering the realities it must be realized that by all means to mobilize for counteracting the environmental pollution directly, a certain climate change will be inevitable. The consequences will also be an outstanding challenge for the agriculture. NR 0 TC 3 J9 BODENKULTUR BP 269 EP 283 PY 1995 PD AUG VL 46 IS 3 GA TA930 UT ISI:A1995TA93000008 ER PT J AU Balee, W TI The research program of historical ecology SO ANNUAL REVIEW OF ANTHROPOLOGY LA English DT Review C1 Tulane Univ, Dept Anthropol, New Orleans, LA 70118 USA. RP Balee, W, Tulane Univ, Dept Anthropol, New Orleans, LA 70118 USA. AB Historical ecology is a new interdisciplinary research program concerned with comprehending temporal and spatial dimensions in the relationships of human societies to local environments and the cumulative global effects of these relationships. Historical ecology contains core postulates that concern qualitative types of human-mediated disturbance of natural environments and the effect of these on species diversity, among other parameters. A central term used in historical ecology to situate human behavior and agency in the environment is the landscape, as derived from historical geography, instead of the ecosystem, which is from systems ecology. Historical ecology is similar to nonequilibrium dynamic theory, but differs in its postulate of human-mediated disturbance as a principle of landscape transformation. Such disturbances counterintuitively may involve anthropogenic primary and secondary succession that result in net increases of alpha and even beta diversity. Applied historical ecology can supply the reference conditions of time depth and traditional knowledge to restore past landscapes. 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1999, HUM ECOL, V27, P167 VERHEYEN K, 2004, WHAT HIST CAN TEACH VIEIRA ICG, 2001, BIOL CULTURAL DIVERS WALKER KJ, 2000, J ETHNOBIOL, V20, P269 WALKER LR, 2003, PRIMARY SUCCESSION E WINTHROP KR, 2001, HIST ECOLOGY LANDSCA WISEMAN FM, 1978, PREHISPANIC MAYA AGR, P63 WITKOWSKI SR, 1983, LANGUAGE, V59, P569 WOLF ER, 1982, EUROPE PEOPLE HIST WOLF ER, 1999, AM ANTHROPOL, V101, P19 WOLSCHKEBULMAHN J, 2004, NATURE GERMAN HIST, P74 WORSTER D, 1993, WEALTH NATURE ENV HI WORSTER D, 1994, ANTURES EC HIST ECOL ZENT EL, 2004, ETHNOBOTANY CONVERSA, P79 ZIMMERER KS, 1993, J HIST GEOGR, V19, P15 ZIMMERER KS, 2000, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V90, P356 NR 169 TC 1 J9 ANNU REV ANTHROPOL BP 75 EP 98 PY 2006 VL 35 GA 105MA UT ISI:000242032900005 ER PT J AU Fraisse, CW Breuer, NE Zierden, D Bellow, JG Paz, J Cabrera, VE Garcia, AGY Ingram, KT Hatch, U Hoogenboom, G Jones, JW OBrien, JJ TI AgClimate: A climate forecast information system for agricultural risk management in the southeastern USA SO COMPUTERS AND ELECTRONICS IN AGRICULTURE LA English DT Article C1 Univ Florida, Dept Agr & Biol Engn, Gainesville, FL 32611 USA. Univ Miami, Rosenstiel Sch Marine & Atmospher Sci, Coral Gables, FL 33124 USA. Florida State Univ, Ctr Ocean Atmospher Predict Studies, Tallahassee, FL 32306 USA. Univ Georgia, Dept Biol & Agr Engn, Athens, GA 30602 USA. Auburn Univ, Inst Environm, Auburn, AL 36849 USA. RP Fraisse, CW, Univ Florida, Dept Agr & Biol Engn, Gainesville, FL 32611 USA. AB Seasonal climate variability plays an important role in the production risks faced by producers. The majority of crop failures in the USA are associated with either a lack or excess of rainfall. Climate forecasts can be used to reduce risks faced by an agricultural enterprise, but simply providing better climate forecasts to potential users is not enough. Climate information only has value when there is a clearly defined adaptive response and a benefit once the content of the information is considered in the decision making process. AgClimate is a response to the need for information and tools on proactive adaptations to seasonal and interannual climate variability forecasts in the southeastern USA. Extension agents, agricultural producers, forest managers, crop consultants, and policy makers may use this decision support system to aid in decision making concerning management adjustments in light of climate forecasts. Adaptations include those that might mitigate potential losses as well those with the potential to produce optimal yields. AgClimate is a web-based climate forecast and information system that was designed and implemented in partnership with the Cooperative State Extension Service. It has two main components: the front-end interface and a set of dynamic tools. The main navigation menu includes the AgClimate tools, climate forecasts, and management options for crops, forestry, pasture, and livestock. It a, so includes a climate and El Nino section with background information. The tools section contains two applications that allow a user to examine the climate forecast for individual counties based on the ENSO phase and to evaluate yield potentials for certain crops. Applied outlooks for individual agricultural sectors are also provided on a quarterly basis. AgClimate is now operational under the Southeast Climate Consortium and several upgrades are under development and consideration. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. CR BOOTE KJ, 1998, SIMULATION CROP GROW, P113 BREUER N, 2000, FLORIDA CONSORTIUM T BREUER N, 2005, AE289 U FLORIDA GAIN BYRAM G, 1988, SE38 USDA FOR SERV R, V38, P1 CANE MA, 1994, NATURE, V370, P204 CANE MA, 2001, ASA SPECIAL PUBLICAT, V63 CARLSON RE, 1996, J PROD AGRIC, V9, P347 CASH DW, 2003, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V100, P8086 EFRON B, 1993, INTRO BOOTSTRAP FRAISSE CW, 2004, AE267 U FLOR COOP EX GARCIA AGY, 2005, CLIMATE RES, V29, P91 GARNETT ER, 1992, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V61, P113 GLANTZ MH, 2001, CURRENTS CHANGE IMPA HANDLER P, 1990, INT J CLIMATOL, V10, P819 HANLEY DE, 2003, J CLIMATE, V16, P1249 HANSEN JW, 1998, J CLIMATE, V11, P404 HANSEN JW, 2002, AGR SYST, V74, P309 HANSEN JW, 2004, 0401 EARTH I COL U I HARWOOD J, 1999, AER774 USDA EC RES S HILDEBRAND PE, 1999, FLORIDA CONSORTIUM T HOOGENBOOM G, 1992, T ASAE, V35, P2043 HOOGENBOOM G, 2004, DECISION SUPPORT SYS IBARRA R, 1999, FE198 IFAS PUBL JAGTAP SS, 2002, AGR SYST, V74, P415 JONES JW, 2000, AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON, V82, P169 JONES JW, 2003, EUR J AGRON, V18, P235 KILADIS GN, 1989, J CLIMATOL, V2, P1069 LAMB PJ, 1981, B AM METEOROL SOC, V62, P1000 LIU RY, 1992, EXPLORING LIMITS BOO, P225 MEARNS LO, 2003, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V60, P7 MEINKE H, 2005, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V70, P221 MESSINA C, 2000, FCUF200005 FLOR CONS OBRIEN KL, 2003, COPING CLIMATE VARIA, P197 RITCHIE JT, 1995, MODELLING PARAMETERI, P401 ROPELEWSKI CF, 1996, J CLIMATE, V9, P1043 SCHOLBERG JMS, 1997, SYSTEMS APPROACHES S, P133 SITTEL MC, 1994, 941 FLOR STAT U CTR SONKA ST, 1987, J CLIM APPL METEOROL, V26, P1080 STEIN PC, 1999, MAKING CLIMATE FOREC, P63 ZWERS FW, 1991, J CLIMATE, V3, P1452 NR 40 TC 1 J9 COMPUT ELECTRON AGRIC BP 13 EP 27 PY 2006 PD AUG VL 53 IS 1 GA 068MS UT ISI:000239379000002 ER PT J AU Mather, AS TI Assessing the world's forests SO GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS LA English DT Review C1 Univ Aberdeen, Dept Geog & Environm, Aberdeen AB24 3UF, Scotland. RP Mather, AS, Univ Aberdeen, Dept Geog & Environm, Aberdeen AB24 3UF, Scotland. AB Global environmental data have grown in abundance in recent decades: this paper reviews this growth in respect of forests. Assessments of world forests were undertaken at intervals during the 20th century, notably by FAO. Yet data problems persist: it is impossible, for example, to compile reliable time-series data for the global forest area. Assessment was initially geared to timber resources, and adaptation to include environmental concerns was slow. While methodologies have evolved, even the most recent global forest assessment has attracted criticism. It can be argued, however, that to focus only on the product of assessments (in terms of quantitative data) is to overlook their role as process. The process is a potentially significant instrument of global forest governance. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 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Potsdam Inst Climat Impacts Res, D-14412 Potsdam, Germany. RP Kundzewicz, ZW, Polish Acad Sci, Res Ctr Agr & Forest Environm, Bukowska 19, PL-60809 Poznan, Poland. AB The aim of the present contribution, opening a session on climate change and hydrology at the 2002 Nordic Hydrological Conference in Roros, Norway, is to discuss essential water-related findings of the Third Assessment Report (TAR) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), with particular reference to region-specific issues of the Nordic region. Discussion of impacts of climate variability and change embraces both already observed effects and projections for the future. After review of changes in hydrological processes, climate-related impacts on extreme hydrological events - floods and droughts are outlined. Finally, adaptation and vulnerability are dealt with, including presentation of key water-related regional concerns in various parts of the World. CR ARNELL NW, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 CHIEW FHS, 1993, INT J CLIMATOL, V13, P643 HOUGHTON JT, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 KUNDZEWICZ ZW, 2000, WCDMP45 WORLD CLIM P MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 PARRY ML, 2002, ASSESSMENT POTENTIAL WATSON RT, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 NR 7 TC 0 J9 NORD HYDROL BP 387 EP 398 PY 2003 VL 34 IS 5 GA 774DK UT ISI:000188964300001 ER PT J AU LOKER, WM TI THE HUMAN-ECOLOGY OF CATTLE RAISING IN THE PERUVIAN AMAZON - THE VIEW FROM THE FARM SO HUMAN ORGANIZATION LA English DT Article C1 ROCKEFELLER FDN,SOCIAL SCI RES AGR PROGRAM,NEW YORK,NY 10036. RP LOKER, WM, CALIF POLYTECH STATE UNIV SAN LUIS OBISPO,DEPT SOCIAL SCI,SAN LUIS OBISPO,CA 93407. AB This paper, based on two years of fieldwork in the Peruvian Amazon, analyzes cattle raising as one component of farmers' adaptive strategies in the social and ecological contexts of that region. The paper examines why cattle raising is a widespread production activity on small-to-medium farms in the region, and discusses its ecological impacts at the farm level. The ecological impacts include a tendency to retard biomass accumulation after moderate-to-heavy grazing, thereby prolonging the fallow period necessary for site recovery. The paper analyzes the implications of this ecological change on the viability of small-to-medium farms in this environment. CR *COLOM CTR INT AGR, 1989, 1988 ANN REP *CULT SURV, 1982, HUM COSTS DEF *PERU I NAC EST, 1987, PER COMP EST *PERU I VET TROP A, 1989, SIST PROD AM ACOSTA M, 1989, COLOMBIA AMAZONICA, V4, P85 BENNETT JW, 1976, ECOLOGICAL TRANSITIO BINSWANGER H, 1989, BRAZILIAN POLICIES T BISHOP J, 1982, AMAZONIA AGR LAND US, P423 BUSCHBACHER R, 1988, J ECOL, V76, P682 BUSCHBACHER RJ, 1984, THESIS U GEORGIA CONKLIN HC, 1961, CURR ANTHROPOL, V2, P27 DAVIS S, 1978, VICTIMS MIRACLE ESTRADA RD, 1988, SISTEMAS PRODUCCION FALESI IC, 1976, ECOSISTEMA PASTAGEM FEARNSIDE P, 1986, HUMAN CARRYING CAPAC FEARNSIDE PM, 1980, TROPICAL ECOLOGY, V21, P125 FEARNSIDE PM, 1987, BIOSCIENCE, V37, P209 GOODLAND RJA, 1975, AMAZON JUNGLE GREEN GOODLAND RJA, 1980, ENVIRON CONSERV, V7, P9 HECHT S, 1982, THESIS U CALIFORNIA HECHT SB, 1983, DILEMMA AMAZONIAN DE, P155 HECHT SB, 1984, FRONTIER EXPANSION A, P366 HECHT SB, 1988, INTERCIENCIA, V13, P233 JORDAN CF, 1985, NUTRIENT CYCLING TRO LAL R, 1986, ADV AGRON, V39, P173 LOKER W, 1988, ROLE CATTLE MIXED PR LOKER W, 1989, ANN M AM ANTHR ASS W MAHAR D, 1988, GOVT POLICIES DEFORE MYERS N, 1982, SINKING ARK NICHOLAIDES JJ, 1984, FRONTIER EXPANSION A, P337 PECK R, 1982, AMAZONIA AGR LAND US, P391 RAMIREZ S, 1990, IMPACTO SOCIOECONOMI SALATI E, 1984, SCIENCE, V225, P129 SPAIN JM, 1984, RECICLAJE NUTRIMENTO STEARMAN AM, 1983, DILEMMA AMAZONIAN DE, P51 TOLEDO J, 1982, AMAZONIA AGR LAND US, P281 TRENBATH BR, 1990, AGROECOLOGY RES ECOL, P337 UHL C, 1988, J ECOL, V76, P663 VOSTI SA, 1989, SOME ENV HLTH ASPECT NR 39 TC 14 J9 HUM ORGAN BP 14 EP 24 PY 1993 PD SPR VL 52 IS 1 GA KR474 UT ISI:A1993KR47400002 ER PT J AU Williams, JE TI The biodiversity crisis and adaptation to climate change: A case study from Australia's forests SO ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING AND ASSESSMENT LA English DT Article C1 Univ Melbourne, Sch Bot, Parkville, Vic 3052, Australia. RP Williams, JE, Univ Melbourne, Sch Bot, Parkville, Vic 3052, Australia. AB If current trends continue, human activities will drastically alter most of the planet's remaining natural ecosystems and their composite biota within a few decades. Compounding the impacts on biodiversity from deleterious management practices is climate variability and change. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) recently concluded that there is ample evidence to suggest climate change is likely to result in significant impacts on biological diversity. These impacts are likely to be exacerbated by the secondary effects of climate change such as changes in the occurrence of wildfire, insect outbreaks and similar disturbances. Current changes in climate are very different from those of the past due to their rate and magnitude, the direct effects of increased atmospheric CO2 concentrations and because highly modified landscapes and an array of threatening processes limit the ability of terrestrial ecosystems and species to respond to changed conditions. One of the primary human adaptation option for conserving biodiversity is considered to be changes in management. The complex and overarching nature of climate change issues emphasises the need for greatly enhanced cooperation between scientists, policy makers, industry and the community to better understand key interaction's and identify options for adaptation. A key challenge is to identify opportunities that facilitate sustainable development by making use of existing technologies and developing policies that enhance the resilience of climate-sensitive sectors. Measures to enhance the resilience of biodiversity must be considered in all of these activities if many ecosystem services essential to humanity are to be sustained. New institutional arrangements appear necessary at the regional and national level to ensure that policy initiatives and research directed at assessing and mitigating the vulnerability of biodiversity to climate change are complementary and undertaken strategically and cost-effectively. Policy implementation at the national level to meet responsibilities arising from the UNFCCC (e.g., the Kyoto Protocol) and the UN Convention on Biological Diversity require greater coordination and integration between economic sectors, since many primary drivers of biodiversity loss and vulnerability are influenced at this level. A case study from the Australian continent is used to illustrate several key issues and discuss a basis for reform, including recommendations for facilitating adaptation to climate variability and change. CR *COMM AUSTR, 1996, AUSTR STAT ENV 1996 *COMM AUSTR, 1996, NAT STRAT CONS AUSTR *COMM AUSTR, 1997, AUSTR 1 APPR REP MON *COMM AUSTR, 1997, FRAM REG SUBN LEV CR AUSTIN MP, 1997, EUCALYPTUS ECOLOGY I, P129 BASHER RE, 1998, REGIONAL IMPACTS CLI, P105 BRERETON R, 1995, BIOL CONSERV, V72, P339 DAILY GC, 1997, ISSUES ECOLOGY DALE VH, 1997, ECOL APPL, V7, P753 DOVERS SR, IN PRESS AMBIO DOVERS SR, 1996, BIODIVERS CONSERV, V5, P1143 FREIDENBURG LK, 1998, CONSERVATION BIOL CO, P66 GRICE AC, 1996, 11 AUSTR WEEDS C P W, P195 HALPIN PN, 1997, ECOL APPL, V7, P828 HUGHES L, 1996, GLOBAL ECOL BIOGEOGR, V5, P23 LANDSBERG JJ, 1996, GREENHOUSE COPING CL, P205 LUBCHENCO J, 1991, ECOLOGY, V72, P371 MOONEY HA, 1994, AMBIO, V23, P74 NORTON TW, 1996, FOREST ECOL MANAG, V85, P21 NORTON TW, 1998, COMMUNICATION PAUSAS JG, 1997, ECOL APPL, V7, P921 ROSETTA M, 1997, CONSERVATION OUTSIDE, P442 WATSON RT, 1998, REGIONAL IMPACTS CLI, V1, P1 WILLIAMS JE, 1994, CLIMATE CHANGE MAINT NR 24 TC 1 J9 ENVIRON MONIT ASSESS BP 65 EP 74 PY 2000 PD MAR VL 61 IS 1 GA 300UB UT ISI:000086270100005 ER PT J AU Leach, HM TI Human domestication reconsidered SO CURRENT ANTHROPOLOGY LA English DT Review C1 Univ Otago, Dunedin, New Zealand. RP Leach, HM, Univ Otago, POB 56, Dunedin, New Zealand. AB In scientific usage, "domestication" has come to mean the process by which humans transformed wild animals and plants into more useful products through control of their breeding. Certain physical and behavioural changes have been identified as criteria of domestication. They include morphological changes affecting the skeletons of early Middle Eastern domesticates ( e. g., reduction in size and skeletal robusticity, cranio-facial shortening, and declining tooth size). These changes also occur in some human populations starting in the Late Pleistocene. "Unconscious selection" pressures are increasingly invoked in explanations of both sets of data. The long-established paradigm of human control over domestication through artificial selection has meant that parallelism in these changes is seldom noted and few inclusive explanations have been attempted since the early 1900s. Recently, only symbolic and social domestication has been accepted for Homo sapiens. This article proposes a preliminary case for human biological domestication based on the effects of the built environment, decreased mobility, and changes in diet consistency associated with increasing sedentism. 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SO GEOFORUM LA English DT Article C1 Univ Sheffield, Sch Management, Sheffield S1 4DT, S Yorkshire, England. RP Cashman, A, Univ Sheffield, Sch Management, 9 Mappin St, Sheffield S1 4DT, S Yorkshire, England. AB In 1997 there was a change in government in the UK with the Labour Party coming into power for the first time since 1979. Among the commitments made was the intention to put sustainability at the heart of government and decision-making. There was also a commitment to introduce reforms of the utility sector. In part this was a response to public concern over the conduct and behaviour of the privatised utilities,,made more pertinent in the case of the water sector by the impact of several seasons of below average rainfall and high levels of leakage. In light of this the need for change took on a particular urgency. This paper examines some of the developments in water regulation under the 1997-2001 Labour administration. Through two sets of events; the 1997 Water Summit and the 1997-1999 Price Review the paper examines the discursive processes through which sustainability has been incorporated into water regulation. It discusses the changes in the practices of regulation and whether these could be characterised as the adoption of sustainability by the water sector or a strategy of adaptation to accommodate sustainability within an existing economic paradigm. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 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RP Carvalho, FP, Inst Tecnol & Nucl, Dept Prot Radiol & Seguranca Nucl, Estrada Nacl 10, P-2686953 Sacavem, Portugal. AB Decades ago, agrochemicals were introduced aiming at enhancing crop yields and at protecting crops from pests. Due to adaptation and resistance developed by pests to chemicals, every year higher amounts and new chemical compounds are used to protect crops, causing undesired side effects and raising the costs of food production. Eventually, new techniques, including genetically modified organisms (GMOs) resistant to pests, could halt the massive spread of agrochemicals in agriculture fields. Biological chemical-free agriculture is gaining also more and more support but it is still not able to respond to the need for producing massive amounts of food. The use of agrochemicals, including pesticides, remains a common practice especially in tropical regions and South countries. Cheap compounds, such as DDT, HCH and lindane, that are environmentally persistent, are today banned from agriculture use in developed countries, but remain popular in developing countries. As a consequence, persistent residues of these chemicals contaminate food and disperse in the environment. Coordinated efforts are needed to increase the production of food but with a view to enhanced food quality and safety as well as to controlling residues of persistent pesticides in the environment. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR 1991, PHOSPHORUS POTASSIUM, V172, P18 *EEA, 2005, 10 EEA *FAO, 2002, STAT FOOD INS WORLD *FAO, 2004, STAT FOOD INS WORLD *FAO, 2005, STAT FOOD INS WORLD *FAOSTAT, 2001, FOOD AGR ORG STAT DA *IAEA, 2003, IAEA TECDOC SER, V1337 *IAEA, 2004, IAEA TECOD SER, V1426 *UN MILL PROJ, 2005, INV DEV PRACT PLAN A *UN, 2001, WORLD POP PROSP 2000 *UN, 2005, WORLD POP PROSP 2004 *UNEP, 2005, GEO YB 2004 5 AHMED M, 2002, FOOD POLICY, V27, P125 ALEXANDRATOS N, 1999, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V96, P5908 BARCELO D, 1997, TECHNIQUES INSTRUMEN, V19, P542 BORLAUGH N, 1993, P 61 INT FERT ASS AN BRETVELD RW, 2006, REPROD BIOL ENDOCRIN, V4 CAMARGO JA, 2006, ENVIRON INT, V32, P831 CARVALHO FP, 1997, P INT FAO IAEA S ENV, P35 CARVALHO FP, 2002, J ENVIRON MONITOR, V4, P778 CARVALHO FP, 2005, P 1 INT C COAST CONS, P423 CHERNYAK SM, 1996, MAR POLLUT BULL, V32, P410 COHEN JE, 2005, SCI AM, P26 DUSZELN J, 1991, CHEM AGR ENV, P410 FALCON WP, 2005, FOOD POLICY, V27, P197 GILLAND B, 2002, FOOD POLICY, V27, P47 HARRIS CA, 2002, J ENVIRON MONITOR, V4, P28 KHUSH GS, 2002, FOOD NUTR B, V23, P354 KLASSEN W, 1995, P 8 INT C PEST CHEM, P1 MACFARLANE R, 2002, FOOD POLICY, V27, P65 MUNOZDETORO M, 2006, BREAST CANCER RES, V8 NHAN DD, 1999, SCI TOTAL ENVIRON, V237, P363 NICKSON TE, 1999, J ENVIRON MONITOR, V1, P101 PELLEY J, 2006, ENVIRON SCI TECHNOL, V40, P4533 PINGALI PL, 2002, FOOD POLICY, V27, P223 RIVAS A, 1997, TRAC-TREND ANAL CHEM, V16, P613 RUTHERFORD PM, 1995, ENVIRON TECHNOL, V16, P343 SACHS JD, 2005, SCI AM, P34 SCHRODER JJ, 2004, ENVIRON SCI POLICY, V7, P15 SHARP P, 1999, INT STUDIES REV, V1, P33 SRINIVASAN CS, 2006, FOOD POLICY, V31, P53 TAMM L, 2001, J ENVIRON MONITOR, V3, P92 TAYLOR M, 2003, PESTICIDE RESIDUES C THORPE A, 2006, FOOD POLICY, V31, P385 TRIPP R, 2002, FOOD POLICY, V27, P239 URI ND, 1997, SCI TOTAL ENVIRON, V204, P57 YOUNG JC, IN PRESS ECOTOXICOL NR 47 TC 0 J9 ENVIRON SCI POLICY BP 685 EP 692 PY 2006 PD NOV-DEC VL 9 IS 7-8 GA 114WS UT ISI:000242696900009 ER PT J AU Larson, DO Neff, H Graybill, DA Michaelsen, J Ambos, E TI Risk, climatic variability, and the study of southwestern prehistory: An evolutionary perspective SO AMERICAN ANTIQUITY LA English DT Review C1 UNIV MISSOURI,RES REACTOR CTR,COLUMBIA,MO 65211. UNIV ARIZONA,LAB TREE RING RES,TUCSON,AZ 85721. UNIV CALIF SANTA BARBARA,DEPT GEOG,SANTA BARBARA,CA 93106. CALIF STATE UNIV LONG BEACH,DEPT GEOL SCI,LONG BEACH,CA 90840. RP Larson, DO, CALIF STATE UNIV LONG BEACH,DEPT ANTHROPOL,LONG BEACH,CA 90840. AB Two recent developments in southwestern archaeology are brought together in this paper. First, theoreticians have begun to argue that the archaeological record should be viewed as the product of selection-driven evolution. Second, tree-ring research has produced a highly detailed history of climate for a large area of the northern Southwest. We view the record of climatic oscillations and extreme events as a record of the strength of selection favoring stabilization of specialized agricultural strategies in the arid northern Southwest. Published data from Black Mesa provide a cultural record of sufficient precision to permit comparison with the climate record, while new data from Vermillion Cliffs, southern Utah, document one local end-product of an evolutionary sequence shaped to an important degree by the long-term variability of climate. Anasazi occupation of many regions failed to persist through the ''Great Drought'' of the 1270s. From a local perspective, this extreme climatic event caused adaptations shaped by selection prior to the 1270s to fail; from a broader temporal-spatial perspective, however, the drought must be seen as part of the selective regime that shaped subsequent human adaptation to the northern Southwest. 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RP Pahl-Wostl, C, Univ Osnabruck, Inst Environm Syst Res, Barbarastr 12, D-49069 Osnabruck, Germany. AB Water management is facing major challenges due to increasing uncertainties caused by climate and global change and by fast changing socio-economic boundary conditions. More attention has to be devoted to understanding and managing the transition from current management regimes to more adaptive regimes that take into account environmental, technological, economic, institutional and cultural characteristics of river basins. This implies a paradigm shift in water management from a prediction and control to a management as learning approach. The change towards adaptive management could be defined as "learning to manage by managing to learn". Such change aims at increasing the adaptive capacity of river basins at different scales. The paper identifies major challenges for research and practice how to understand a transition in water management regimes. A conceptual framework is introduced how to characterize water management regimes and the dynamics of transition processes. The European project NeWater project is presented as one approach where new scientific methods and practical tools are developed for the participatory assessment and implementation of adaptive water management. 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RP Miller, KA, NATL CTR ATMOSPHER RES,ENVIRONM & SOC IMPACTS GRP,POB 3000,BOULDER,CO 80307. AB Global warming may profoundly affect temporal and spatial distributions of surface water availability. While climate modelers cannot yet predict regional hydrologic changes with confidence, it is appropriate to begin examining the likely effects of water allocation institutions on society's adaptability to prospective climate change. Such institutions include basic systems of water law, specific statutes, systems of administration and enforcement, and social norms regarding acceptable water-use practices. Both climate and the changing nature of demands on the resource have affected the development and evolution of water allocation institutions in the United States. Water laws and administrative arrangements, for example, have adapted to changing circumstances, but the process of adaptation can be costly and subject to conflict. Analysis of past and ongoing institutional change is used to identify factors that may have a bearing on the costliness of adaptation to the uncertain impacts of global warming on water availability and water demands. Several elements are identified that should be incorporated in the design of future water policies to reduce the potential for disputes and resource degradation that might otherwise result if climate change alters regional hydrology. 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RP Bailey, KD, Univ Calif Los Angeles, Dept Sociol, Los Angeles, CA 90095 USA. AB Social ecology studies the manner in which human societies adapt to their environment. This includes not only the impact of the society on the environment, but also the impact of the environment on the society. In fact, as societies adapt to their environment, they alter it, and this altered environment subsequently impacts back upon the society. Living Systems Theory (LST) discusses twenty critical subsystems which process either matter/energy or information in living systems, including social systems. This paper first presents a general model of social ecology. It then concentrates upon the ten subsystems of LST which process matter/energy, and analyzes how knowledge of these subsystem processes can be applied to our model of social ecology. These ten subsystems - the reproducer, boundary, ingestor, distributor, converter, producer, matter-energy storage, extruder, motor, and supporter - are all shown to occupy key roles in ecological adaptation, and the role of each is explicated. (C) 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. CR BAILEY KD, 1968, THESIS U TEXAS AUSTI BAILEY KD, 1990, SOCIAL ENTROPY THEOR BAILEY KD, 1990, SOCIOL INQ, V60, P386 BAILEY KD, 1993, ADV HUMAN ECOLOGY, V2, P133 BAILEY KD, 1994, SOCIOLOGY NEW SYSTEM BAILEY KD, 1995, SYST PRACTICE, V8, P85 BAILEY KD, 1996, P INT SOC SYSTEMS SC, P43 BURGESS EW, 1925, CITY, P47 DUNLAP RE, 1979, ANNU REV SOCIOL, V5, P243 DUNLAP RE, 1993, ANN INT I SOCIOLOGY, V3, P263 KEMPTON W, 1991, SOC NATUR RESOUR, V4, P331 LUHMANN N, 1989, ECOLOGICAL COMMUNICA MILLER GM, 1982, BEHAV SCI, V27, P303 MILLER JG, 1978, LIVING SYSTEMS MILLER JG, 1992, ANAL DYNAMIC PSYCHOL, V1, P9 MILLER JG, 1995, SYST PRACTICE, V8, P19 MILLER JL, 1990, BEHAV SCI, V35, P164 NR 17 TC 1 J9 SYST RES BEHAV SCI BP 421 EP 428 PY 1998 PD SEP-OCT VL 15 IS 5 GA 135WZ UT ISI:000076826800009 ER PT J AU Schachner, G TI Ritual control and transformation in middle-range societies: An example from the American Southwest SO JOURNAL OF ANTHROPOLOGICAL ARCHAEOLOGY LA English DT Review C1 Arizona State Univ, Dept Anthropol, Tempe, AZ 85287 USA. RP Schachner, G, Arizona State Univ, Dept Anthropol, Tempe, AZ 85287 USA. AB Ritual practices play an important role in the constitution and reproduction of social structures in middle-range societies. Oftentimes individuals and groups transform rituals: juring periods of social disruption in order to restructure the social landscape. This article develops a practice-based approach to ritual change that delineates contexts conducive to the transformation of extant ritual systems by individuals and groups looking to improve their social standing. This framework is then employed to discuss the shifts in ritual architecture that accompanied episodes of migration and environmental change during the Pueblo I period (A.D. 750-900) in die northern San Juan region of the American Southwest. These architectural shifts: were linked to changes in the control of communal ritual and the negotiation of social Fewer in relatively large, short-lived villages. (C) 2001 Academic Press. 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1996, AM ANTIQUITY, V61, P295 WOLF ER, 1990, AM ANTHROPOL, V92, P586 YOFFEE N, 1993, ARCHAEOLOGICAL THEOR, P60 NR 124 TC 3 J9 J ANTHROPOL ARCHAEOL BP 168 EP 194 PY 2001 PD JUN VL 20 IS 2 GA 445JZ UT ISI:000169455500002 ER PT J AU Haines, A Kovats, RS Campbell-Lendrum, D Corvalan, C TI Harben Lecture - Climate change and human health: impacts, vulnerability, and mitigation SO LANCET LA English DT Article C1 Univ London London Sch Hyg & Trop Med, London WC1E 7HT, England. WHO, CH-1211 Geneva, Switzerland. RP Haines, A, Univ London London Sch Hyg & Trop Med, Keppel St, London WC1E 7HT, England. AB It is now widely accepted that climate change is occurring as a result of the accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere arising from the combustion of fossil fuels. Climate change may affect health through a range of pathways-eg, as a result of increased frequency and intensity of heat waves, reduction in cold-related deaths, increased floods and droughts, changes in the distribution of vector-borne diseases, and effects on the risk of disasters and malnutrition. The overall balance of effects on health is likely to be negative and populations in low-income countries are likely to be particularly vulnerable to the adverse effects. The experience of the 2003 heat wave in Europe shows that high-income countries might also be adversely affected. Adaptation to climate change requires public-health strategies and improved surveillance. Mitigation of climate change by reducing the use of fossil fuels and increasing the use of a number of renewable energy technologies should improve health in the near term by reducing exposure to air pollution. 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Agriculture directly or indirectly supports 80 per cent of the population and much of Kenya's economy is based on agro-based industries. Climate change puts Kenya's development at risk through potential changes in precipitation in semi-arid areas, increased incidence of waterborne diseases in humid areas and increased rates of depletion of biomass and biodiversity The case study of Eastern Kenya examines different institutional mechanisms for seed distribution in the wake of successive droughts from 1991-2004, interspersed with floods, which resulted in a massive loss of crops, livestock and rural infrastructure. Seed fairs, organised by local communities with support from external NGOs, are found to be a more cost-effective mechanism for rapid seed distribution to the neediest sections of society than conventional, commercial channels. The latter wrongly assume that in periods of emergency local seed varieties are unavailable, when the key issue is of securing access. Seed fairs ensure seed varieties better adapted to local conditions are available during emergency periods. They also avoid the creation of dependency, help to build affected communities' social capital and contribute positively to the maintenance of biodiversity. CR *AIACC, 2002, UNEP START TWAS GEF *CRS ODI ICRISAT, 2002, SEED VOUCH FAIRS MAN *CRS, 2003, EM SEED DEL SEED VOU *GOK, 2002, 1 NAT COMM KEN C PAR *GOK, 2003, EC REC STRAT WEALTH *GOK, 2004, STRAT REV AGR 2004 2 *IRI, 2005, 0105 IRI *ITDGEA, 2000, COMM SEED SHOWS CAS *LOC DEV COMM GIK, 1999, ITDG96 *UNDP, 2004, HUM DEV REP 2004 AKLILU Y, 2002, DROUGHT LIVESTOCK LI BRAMEL P, 2004, CRS SEED VOUCHERS FA HAUGEN JM, 2001, TARGETED SEED AID SE MAKOKHA M, 2004, COMPARISON SEED VOUC MCGUIRE S, 2000, TARGETED SEED AID SE MUGAH JO, 2002, STRENGTHENING EMERGE OMANGA P, 2002, STRENGTHENING EMERGE OMANGA P, 2004, CRS SEED VOUCHERS FA OTADOH JA, 2002, STRENGTHENING EMERGE POTTIER J, 1996, IDS B, V27 REMINGTON T, 2004, CRS SEED VOUCHERS FA SPERLING L, 2001, TARGETED SEED AID SE SPERLING L, 2002, DISASTERS, V26, P329 WELTZIEN E, 2000, TARG SEED AID SEED S NR 24 TC 0 J9 IDS BULL-INST DEVELOP STUD BP 87 EP + PY 2005 PD OCT VL 36 IS 4 GA 989QD UT ISI:000233687900007 ER PT J AU Crabbe, P Robin, M TI Institutional adaptation of water resource infrastructures to climate change in Eastern Ontario SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 Univ Ottawa, Dept Econ, Ottawa, ON K1N 6N5, Canada. Univ Ottawa, Dept Earth Sci, Ottawa, ON K1N 6N5, Canada. RP Crabbe, P, Univ Ottawa, Dept Econ, POB 450,Stn A, Ottawa, ON K1N 6N5, Canada. AB Institutional barriers and bridges to local climate change impacts adaptation affecting small rural municipalities and Conservation Authorities (CAs are watershed agencies) in Eastern Ontario (Canada) are examined, and elements of a community-based adaptation strategy related to water infrastructures are proposed as a case-study in community adaptation to climate change. No general water scarcity is expected for the region even under unusually dry weather scenarios. Localized quantity and quality problems are likely to occur especially in groundwater recharge areas. Some existing institutions can be relied on by municipalities to build an effective adaptation strategy based on a watershed/region perspective, on their credibility, and on their expertise. Windows of opportunity or framing issues are offered at the provincial level, the most relevant one in a federal state, by municipal emergency plan requirements and pending watershed source water protection legislation. Voluntary and soon to be mandated climate change mitigation programs at the federal level are other ones. 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RP Pandey, DN, Forestry Training Inst, Jaipur 302015, Rajasthan, India. AB Land-use options that increase resilience and reduce vulnerability of contemporary societies are fundamental to livelihood improvement and adaptation to environmental change. Agroforestry as a traditional land-use adaptation may potentially support livelihood improvement through simultaneous production of food, fodder and firewood as well as mitigation of the impact of climate change. Drawing on the representative literature, here, I critically review the contribution of agroforestry systems in India to: (i) biodiversity conservation; (ii) yield of goods and services to society; (iii) augmentation of the carbon storage in agroecosystems; (iv) enhancing the fertility of the soils, and (v) providing social and economic well-being to people. Agroforestry systems in India contribute variously to ecological, social and economic functions, but they are only complementary - and not as an alternative - to natural ecosystems. To promote well-being of the society, management of multifunctional agroforestry needs to be strengthened by innovations in domestication of useful species and crafting market regimes for the products derived from agroforestry and ethnoforestry systems. Future research is required to eliminate many of the uncertainties that remain, and also carefully test the main functions attributed to agroforestry against alternative land-use options in order to know unequivocally as to what extent agroforestry served these purposes. 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RP Park, J, UNIV READING,DEPT AGR,POB 236,READING RG6 2AT,BERKS,ENGLAND. AB Sustainability is a term which is increasingly being used by researchers, politicians and informed members of the public. However, criteria for carrying out research within a sustainable systems framework are either ill-defined or non-existent. As an aid to this process the concept of sustainable pathways and viability space are introduced and interpreted as the need to maintain adaptive capacity, and therefore options within production systems that interact with the natural environment. A research approach is required which takes account of ecological, economic and social aspects of change and that is able to interpret and synthesise information, generated from a range of sources, in a manner which is policy relevant. This requires the construction of interfaces which link activities across a range of disciplines. A research project designed to assess the potential of alternative cropping systems is used to illustrate a series of interfaces. It is argued that demonstrating and developing the connections between the concept of sustainability and decision making processes provides an immediate challenge to those undertaking methodological research. 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Univ Bonn, Dept Geohydrol, Inst Geophys, D-53115 Bonn, Germany. RP Bormann, H, Univ Oldenburg, Dept Biol & Environm Sci, D-26111 Oldenburg, Germany. AB The main goal of the hydrological part within the IMPETUS project ('an integrated approach to the efficient management of scarce water resources in West Africa') is the prediction of environmental change effects on the water cycle and the water availability of regional scale West African catchments. As a prognosis of possible environmental change effects on hydrology has to be based on scenario analyses, an appropriate regional hydrological model is required. Therefore a preliminary goal is the adaptation and validation of a regional hydrological model in the target region. Due to the fact that a validation of spatially distributed simulation results is not feasible at the regional scale, two different strategies of modelling regional water fluxes are followed. First a multi-scale approach is proposed. Based on highly resolved pedological and hydrological measurements at the local scale (30 km(2)) a parameterisation scheme for the spatially distributed TOPLATS approach is developed. After validation at the local scale regional model applications based on parameterisation rules developed at the local scale are performed at the regional scale where only gauge data are available for comparison. Due to data and parameter uncertainty and the fact that the distributed model cannot be calibrated at the regional scale, the model results remain uncertain. For comparison a simplified, lumped model approach is applied directly at the regional scale. The model requires less input data and seems to be more robust with regard to input data and model parameter uncertainties which is mainly due to the fact that uncertainties and errors are smoothed out by the calibration. As it can be calibrated a noticeable better correlation between observed and simulated discharges is obtained because also data uncertainties are calibrated. While a good prediction of the discharge at the regional scale can more easily be obtained by applying the simplified model, environmental change scenario analyses require that land cover change is considered as detailed as possible. Therefore, distributed approaches are still indispensable although model calibration often fails. Model parameter and data uncertainties have to be taken into account and have to be quantified. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 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RP Gerbens-Leenes, PW, Univ Groningen, IVEM, Nijenborg 4, NL-9747 AG Groningen, Netherlands. AB Food security and increasing water scarcity have a dominant place on the food policy agenda. Food security requires sufficient water of adequate quality because water is a prerequisite for plant growth. Nowadays, agriculture accounts for 70% of the worldwide human fresh water use. The expected increase of global food demand requires a great deal of effort to supply sufficient fresh water. If a doubling of agricultural production goes along with a doubling of the use of water, current fresh water resources are probably not sufficient in the long run. The objective of this study is to develop a generally applicable method for the assessment of crop growth-related water flows or "transpirational water" requirements of agricultural crops. Traditionally, agricultural studies have made assessments of water requirements for specific situations to provide a yield. 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IRD, F-34394 Montpellier, France. Penn State Univ, Penn State Inst Environm, University Pk, PA 16802 USA. Marine Biol Lab, Ctr Ecosyst, Woods Hole, MA 02543 USA. USP, CENA, Lab Biogeoquim Ambiental, BR-13400970 Piracicaba, SP, Brazil. RP Cerri, CEP, USP, ESALQ, Dept Ciencia Solo, CP 09, BR-13418900 Piracicaba, SP, Brazil. AB The intensive land use invariably has several negative effects on the environment and crop production if conservative practices are not adopted. Reduction in soil organic matter (SOM) quantity means gas emission (mainly CO2, CH4, N2O) to the atmosphere and increased global warming. Soil sustainability is also affected, since remaining SOM quality changes. Alterations can be verified, for example, by soil desegregation and changes in structure. The consequences are erosion, reduction in nutrient availability for the plants and lower water retention capacity. 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AGR 2 F, P286 SILVA AL, 2006, SCI AGR, V63, P105 SILVA GMA, 1997, SECAPI, V1, P55 SIMOES MD, 2005, SCI AGR, V62, P199 SIQUEIRA OJF, 1994, REV BRASILEIRA AGROM, V2, P115 SIQUEIRA OJF, 2001, MUDANCAS CLIMATICAS, V1, P33 SISTI CPJ, 2004, SOIL TILL RES, V76, P39 SIVAKUMAR MVK, 2005, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V70, P31 SIX J, 1999, SOIL SCI SOC AM J, V63, P1350 SIX J, 2002, AGRONOMIE, V22, P755 SMITH P, 1998, GLOB CHANGE BIOL, V4, P679 SOARES JLN, 2005, SCI AGR, V62, P165 SPAGNOLLO E, 1999, ENC BRAS SUBST HUM 3, P229 TESTA VM, 1992, REV BRASILEIRA CIENC, V16, P107 THORBURN PJ, 2001, FIELD CROP RES, V70, P223 TRUMBORE SE, 1995, GLOBAL BIOGEOCHEM CY, V9, P515 VASCONCELLOS CA, 1998, PESQUI AGROPECU BRAS, V33, P1897 VENZKE SP, 2002, FERTIBIO 2002 ZOTARELLI L, 2003, C BRAS CIENC SOL RIB NR 116 TC 0 J9 SCI AGRIC BP 83 EP 99 PY 2007 PD JAN-FEB VL 64 IS 1 GA 143PX UT ISI:000244736100013 ER PT J AU McAllister, RRJ Abel, N Stokes, CJ Gordon, IJ TI Australian pastoralists in time and space: The evolution of a complex adaptive system SO ECOLOGY AND SOCIETY LA English DT Article AB Newcomers and exotic livestock have displaced indigenous hunter-gatherers from Australia's drylands over the past 200 yr. This paper seeks to learn from and explain the adaptive process involving the initially nave newcomers, their stock, and Australia's ancient landscapes. We review pastoral adaptation at the national, regional, and enterprise scales. These scales are linked, and so we use "panarchy" theory with its concept of "adaptive cycles" as an analytical framework. Past pastoral adaptation can be summarized by changes in key linkages: pastoralists (1) are now connected to more individuals than when they first moved into the rangelands, but are less reliant on local hubs for these connections; (2) have weaker links to the environment as environmental feedbacks have been reduced; (3) have stronger links to alternate land uses, but weaker links to governance; and (4) have stronger links to the global economy. Further change is inevitable. Pastoralism is likely to remain as the core activity in Australian rangelands, but the dynamic linkages that shape the system will, in future, connect pastoralists more strongly to post-production economies, information and more distant social networks, and to a more diverse group of land users. 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SO FISH AND FISHERIES LA English DT Review C1 Univ Alaska, Dept Biol & Wildlife, Fairbanks, AK 99775 USA. Univ Alaska, Dept Resources Management, Fairbanks, AK 99775 USA. RP Robards, MD, Univ Alaska, Dept Biol & Wildlife, POB 756100, Fairbanks, AK 99775 USA. AB Sustaining natural resources is regarded as an important component of ecological resilience and commonly assumed to be of similar importance to social and economic vitality for resource-dependent communities. However, communities may be prevented from benefiting from healthy local resources due to constrained economic or political opportunities. In the case of Alaskan wild salmon, the fisheries are in crisis due to declining economic revenues driven by the proliferation of reliable and increasingly high-quality products from fish farms around the world. This stands in contrast with many of the world's wild-capture fisheries where diminished biological abundance has led to fishery collapse. Furthermore, increasing efficiency of salmon farm production, globalization, and dynamic consumer preferences, suggests that the wild salmon industry will continue to be challenged by the adaptability, price and quality of farmed salmon. Conventional responses to reduced revenues by the wild-capture industry have been to increase economic efficiency through implementing a range of entry entitlement and quota allocation schemes. However, while these mechanisms may improve economic efficiency at a broad scale, they may not benefit local community interests, and in Alaska have precipitated declines in local ownership of the fishery. To be viable, economic efficiency remains a relevant consideration, but in a directionally changing environment (biological, social or economic), communities unable to procure livelihoods from their local resources (through access or value) are likely to seek alternative economic opportunities. The adopted strategies, although logical for communities seeking viability through transformation in a changing world, may not be conducive to resilience of a 'fishing community' or the sustainability of their wild fish resources. We use a theoretically grounded systems approach and data from Alaska's Bristol Bay salmon fishery to demonstrate feedbacks between global preferences towards salmon and the trade-offs inherent when managing for the resilience of wild salmon populations and human communities at different scales. 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Kenya Med Res Inst Wellcome Trust Collaborat Prog, Nairobi, Kenya. Univ London London Sch Hyg & Trop Med, Dept Infect & Trop Dis, London WC1E 7HT, England. Univ Oxford, Dept Zool, Oxford Tick Res Grp, Oxford OX1 3PS, England. Australian Natl Univ, Ctr Resource & Environm Studies, Canberra, ACT 0200, Australia. USA, Med Res Unit Kenya, Nairobi, Kenya. Decis Syst Technol Inc, Rockville, MD 20850 USA. Univ Oxford, John Radcliffe Hosp, Ctr Trop Med, Oxford OX3 9DU, England. RP Hay, SI, Univ Oxford, Dept Zool, TALA Res Grp, S Parks Rd, Oxford OX1 3PS, England. AB The public health and economic consequences of Plasmodium falciparum malaria are once again regarded as priorities for global development. There has been much speculation on whether anthropogenic climate change is exacerbating the malaria problem, especially in areas of high altitude where P. falciparum transmission is limited by low temperature(1-4). The International Panel on Climate Change has concluded that there is likely to be a net extension in the distribution of malaria and an increase in incidence within this range(5). We investigated long-term meteorological trends in four high-altitude sites in East Africa, where increases in malaria have been reported in the past two decades. Here we show that temperature, rainfall, vapour pressure and the number of months suitable for P. falciparum transmission have not changed significantly during the past century or during the period of reported malaria resurgence. A high degree of temporal and spatial variation in the climate of East Africa suggests further that claimed associations between local malaria resurgences and regional changes in climate are overly simplistic. CR *NAT RES COUNC, 2001, WEATH CLIM EC INF DI BODKER R, 2000, GLOBAL CHANGE HUMAN, V1, P134 BOX GEP, 1970, J AM STAT ASSOC, V65, P1509 DICKEY DA, 1979, J AM STAT ASSOC, V74, P427 DICKEY DA, 1981, ECONOMETRICA, V49, P1057 DIXON S, 1950, E AFR MED J, V27, P10 EPSTEIN PR, 1998, B AM METEOROL SOC, V79, P409 GARNHAM PCC, 1948, J NATL MALAR SOC, V7, P275 GRANGER CWJ, 1974, J ECONOMETRICS, V2, P111 HAY SI, 2000, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V97, P9335 HOUGHTON JT, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 KILIAN AHD, 1999, T ROY SOC TROP MED H, V93, P22 KINGUYU SM, 2000, J CLIMATE, V13, P2876 LINDBLADE KA, 1999, T ROY SOC TROP MED H, V93, P480 LOEVINSOHN ME, 1994, LANCET, V343, P714 MARIMBU J, 1993, B SOC PATHOL EXOT, V86, P399 MARTENS P, 1999, AM SCI, V87, P534 MATOLA YG, 1987, J TROP MED HYG, V90, P127 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 MCMICHAEL AJ, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE HUMAN MOUCHET J, 1997, B SOC PATHOL EXOT, V90, P162 MOUCHET J, 1998, J AM MOSQUITO CONTR, V14, P121 NEW M, 1999, J CLIMATE, V12, P829 NEW M, 2000, J CLIMATE, V13, P2217 REITER P, 2001, ENVIRON HEALTH PE S1, V109, P141 SHANKS GD, 2000, T ROY SOC TROP MED H, V94, P253 STERN DI, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V47, P411 NR 27 TC 49 J9 NATURE BP 905 EP 909 PY 2002 PD FEB 21 VL 415 IS 6874 GA 523EL UT ISI:000173941000044 ER PT J AU Hallegatte, S TI The long time scales of the climate-economy feedback and the climatic cost of growth SO ENVIRONMENTAL MODELING & ASSESSMENT LA English DT Article C1 Ctr Int Rech Environm & Dev, F-94736 Nogent Sur Marne, France. Meteo France, Ctr Natl Rech Meteorol, F-94736 Nogent Sur Marne, France. RP Hallegatte, S, Ctr Int Rech Environm & Dev, 45bis Av de la Belle Gabrielle, F-94736 Nogent Sur Marne, France. AB This paper is based on the perception that the inertia of climate and socio-economic systems are key parameters in the climate change issue. In a first part, it develops and implements a new approach based on a simple integrated model with a particular focus on an innovative transient impact and adaptation modeling. In a second part, a climate-economy feedback is defined and characterized. The following results were found. 1) It has a long characteristic time, which lies between 50 and 100 years depending on the hypotheses; this time scale is long when compared to the system's other time scales, and the feedback cannot act as a natural damping process of climate change. 2) Mitigation has to be anticipated since the feedback of an emission reduction on the economy can be significant only after a 20-year delay and is really efficient only after at least 50 years. 3) Even discounted, production changes due to an action on emissions are significant over more than one century. 4) The methodology of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which neglects the feedback from impacts to emissions, is acceptable up to 2100, whatever is the level of impacts. This analysis allows also to define a climatic cost of growth as the additional climate change damages due to the additional emissions linked to economic growth. CR AMBROSI P, 2003, ENVIRON MODEL ASSESS, V8, P133 BODE H, 1945, NETWORK ANAL FEEDBAC CHERKAOUI M, 1996, J HEAT TRANS-T ASME, V118, P401 CLINE W, 1992, EC GLOBAL WARMING COX PM, 2000, NATURE, V408, P184 FANKHAUSER S, 1999, ECOL ECON, V30, P67 FANKHAUSER S, 2005, RESOUR ENERGY ECON, V27, P1 FRIEDLINGSTEIN P, 2003, TELLUS B, V55, P692 GALLUP J, 1999, 1 CID HARV GREEN JSA, 1967, Q J ROY METEOR SOC, V93, P371 HALLEGATTE S, 2005, UNPUB J ATMOS SCI HAURIE A, 2002, TURNPIKE MULTIDISCOU, P4 HOUGHTON JT, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 LIU JWH, 1992, SIAM REV, V34, P82 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 MENDELSOHN R, 1999, IMPACT CLIMATE CHANG NAKICENOVIC N, 2000, SPECIAL REPORT EMISS NORDHAUS W, 1994, MANAGING GLOBAL COMM NORDHAUS WD, 1991, ECON J, V101, P920 SOLOW RM, 1956, Q J ECON, V70, P65 TOL RSJ, 1996, ECOL ECON, V19, P67 TOL RSJ, 2002, ENVIRON RESOUR ECON, V21, P135 TOL RSJ, 2002, ENVIRON RESOUR ECON, V21, P47 NR 23 TC 0 J9 ENVIRON MODEL ASSESS BP 277 EP 289 PY 2005 PD DEC VL 10 IS 4 GA 988XH UT ISI:000233634400001 ER PT J AU Parry, ML TI Scenarios for climate impact and adaptation assessment SO GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS LA English DT Editorial Material C1 Univ E Anglia, Sch Environm Sci, Jackson Environm Inst, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. RP Parry, ML, Univ E Anglia, Sch Environm Sci, Jackson Environm Inst, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. CR CARTER TR, 2000, CLIMATE CHANGE 21 CE HOUGHTON JT, 1996, SCI CLIMATE CHANGE HOUGHTON JT, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 METZ B, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 NAKICENOVIC N, 2000, SPECIAL REPORT EMISS SWART RJ, 2002, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V12, P155 WATSON RT, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 NR 8 TC 3 J9 GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANGE BP 149 EP 153 PY 2002 PD OCT VL 12 IS 3 GA 612KX UT ISI:000179075400001 ER PT J AU Folke, C Hahn, T Olsson, P Norberg, J TI Adaptive governance of social-ecological systems SO ANNUAL REVIEW OF ENVIRONMENT AND RESOURCES LA English DT Review C1 Stockholm Univ, Ctr Transdisciplinary Environm Res, SE-10691 Stockholm, Sweden. Stockholm Univ, Dept Syst Ecol, SE-10691 Stockholm, Sweden. RP Folke, C, Stockholm Univ, Ctr Transdisciplinary Environm Res, SE-10691 Stockholm, Sweden. AB We explore the social dimension that enables adaptive ecosystem-based management. The review concentrates on experiences of adaptive governance of social-ecological systems during periods of abrupt change (crisis) and investigates social sources of renewal and reorganization. Such governance connects individuals, organizations, agencies, and institutions at multiple organizational levels. Key persons provide leadership, trust, vision, meaning, and they help transform management organizations toward a learning environment. Adaptive governance systems often self-organize as social networks with teams and actor groups that draw on various knowledge systems and experiences for the development of a common understanding and policies. The emergence of "bridging organizations" seem to lower the costs of collaboration and conflict resolution, and enabling legislation and governmental policies can support self-organization while framing creativity for adaptive comanagement efforts. A resilient social-ecological system may make use of crisis as an opportunity to transform into a more desired state. 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BP 441 EP 473 PY 2005 VL 30 GA 995OE UT ISI:000234111200014 ER PT J AU M'barek, R Behle, C Mulindabigwi, V Schopp, M Singer, U TI Sustainable resource management in Benin embedded in the process of decentralisation SO PHYSICS AND CHEMISTRY OF THE EARTH LA English DT Article C1 Univ Bonn, Inst Agr Policy Market Res & Econ Sociol, D-53115 Bonn, Germany. Univ Bonn, Dept Geog, D-53115 Bonn, Germany. Univ Bonn, Dept Hort, D-53121 Bonn, Germany. RP M'barek, R, Univ Bonn, Inst Agr Policy Market Res & Econ Sociol, Nussallee 21, D-53115 Bonn, Germany. AB This article gives an overview on an integrated socio-economic approach to meet the complexity of resource use in a representative catchment area in Benin, West Africa. Main objective of the studies is to analyse interdependencies between resource availability and socio-economic, respectively, demographic development, incorporated in the process of institutional reorganisation. The ongoing decentralisation in Benin encounters obstacles, as responsibility is shifted from a national to a local level without being embedded in a framework of constitutional security. In this article we focus on crucial problems and highlight significant though preliminary results with reference to the decentralisation process, regarding basically the resources water and land. Results of field surveys are presented together with a modelling tool to integrate these data in an agricultural sector model. Water will become scarcer due to growing population and changing water consumption patterns. Migration flows aggravate the competition over land and water. The detailed knowledge on these shortly outlined processes allows to identify sustainable strategies in order to mitigate the impending crises. Resource management approaches like CBNRM ("Community Based Natural Resource Management") form a conceptual basis, which must be accompanied by a long-term planning of state institutions to steer resource use and by the introduction of locally adapted land use systems (like Cashew-plantations in the catchment). The decision support system BenIMPACT supports the quantitative assessment of different development paths. The dominant basic needs strategies of all national and international development agencies operating in Benin have to recognise the process of the shortening of the basic natural resources water and land to ensure their sustainability in the future. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *CTR EC HYDR, US WAT POV IND MON P *FAO, 2002, AQ MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 *WORLD BANK, 2003, WORLD BANK COUNTR DA AKPAKI JA, 2002, ACKERBAUERN MOBILE T CHABAL P, 1999, AFRICA WORKS DISORDE FALKENMARK M, 1992, POPULATION WATER RES FALKENMARK M, 1999, WATER REFLECTION LAN FLORIN R, 2003, COMMUNICATION LEACH M, 1999, WORLD DEV, V27, P225 MWABU G, 2001, RURAL DEV EC GROWTH PEPELS W, 1995, KAUFERVERHALTEN MARK PRETTY J, 2001, CARBON EMISSIONS SEQ RUTHBERG H, 1976, Z AUSLANDISCHE LANDW, V15, P42 THAMM HP, 2002, IMPE TUS S COT 20 21 VANDENAKKER E, 2000, MAKROOKONOMISCHE BEW WALLACE JS, 2000, AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON, V82, P105 NR 17 TC 0 J9 PHYS CHEM EARTH BP 365 EP 371 PY 2005 VL 30 IS 6-7 GA 969QM UT ISI:000232249600006 ER PT J AU Orquera, LA TI Mid-Holocene littoral adaptation at the southern end of South America SO QUATERNARY INTERNATIONAL LA English DT Article RP Orquera, LA, Rivadavia 1379-11F, RA-1033 Buenos Aires, DF, Argentina. AB One of the most noticeable, intense and long-lasting human adaptive explorations that occurred in the mid-Holocene was the specialisation in the exploitation of coastal resources that happened in the South of Chile and Argentina. There, the continental border is abrupt and jagged, rainy and covered by woods. In the mid-Holocene, and apparently quite suddenly, an intensification of the human use of littoral resources was developed, which differed considerably from what happened in the rest of Patagonia and Tierra del Fuego. This paper examines in particular the role of the peculiar environment of the area: its importance as a selective factor is evident, but it is not possible to identify within it the factor which determined the starting of the adaptation process. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd and INQUA. All rights reserved. CR ALVAREZ M, 2001, 14 C NAC ARQ ARG BAILEY GN, 1975, J ARCHAEOL SCI, V2, P45 BENN DI, 2000, QUATERNARY RES, V54, P13 BETTINGER R, 2001, HOLOCENE HUNTER GATH, P137 BETTINGER RL, 1982, AM ANTIQUITY, V47, P485 BIRD JB, 1938, GEOGR REV, V28, P250 BIRDSELL JB, 1968, MAN HUNTER, P229 BORRERO L, 2001, HIST ARGENTINA PREHI, P815 BORRERO LA, 1977, AN INST PATAGONIA, V8, P81 BORRERO LA, 1989, ANS I PAT SER CS HS, V19, P133 BRYSON RA, 1985, QUATERNARY RES, V23, P275 BUTZER K, 1982, ARCHAEOLOGY HUMAN EC CLAPPERTON CM, 1992, ANS I PAT CH, V21, P113 DAVIS MB, 1985, QUATERNARY RES, V23, P327 DUMOND DE, 1975, SCIENCE, V187, P713 ERLANDSON J, 2001, J ARCHAEOL RES, V9, P285 GOULD SJ, 1977, PALEOBIOLOGY, V3, P115 HARPENDING H, 1977, WORLD ARCHAEOL, V8, P275 HASSAN F, 1981, DEMOGRAPHIS ARCHAEOL HEUSSER CJ, 1966, P AM PHILOS SOC, V110, P269 HEUSSER CJ, 1980, SCIENCE, V210, P1345 HEUSSER CJ, 1984, LATE CAINOZOIC PALAE, P59 HEUSSER CJ, 1987, NATURE, V328, P609 HEUSSER CJ, 1989, PALAEOGEOGR PALAEOCL, V76, P31 HEUSSER CJ, 1989, QUATERNARY RES, V31, P396 HEUSSER CJ, 1994, REV INST GEOL SAO PA, V15, P7 HEUSSER CJ, 1999, GEOGR ANN A A, V81, P231 HEUSSER CJ, 2000, J QUATERNARY SCI, V15, P101 HOGANSON JW, 1992, QUATERNARY RES, V37, P101 JONES TL, 1991, AM ANTIQUITY, V56, P419 LAMINGEMPERAIRE A, 1968, J SOC AMERICANISTES, V57, P77 LAMY F, 1999, QUATERNARY RES, V51, P83 LEGOUPIL D, 1997, BAHIA COLORADA ENGLE MARKGRAF V, 1991, BOREAS, V20, P63 MEEHAN B, 1977, SUNDA SAHUL, P493 MERCER JH, 1968, AM J SCI, V266, P91 MERCER JH, 1970, AM J SCI, V269, P1 MERCER JH, 1976, QUATERNARY RES, V6, P125 MIOTTI L, 2001, UNPUB 14 C NAC ARQ A OBELIC B, 1998, QUATERNARY S AM ANTA, V11, P47 ORQUERA L, 1977, LANCHA PACKEWAIA ARQ ORQUERA L, 1987, PRIMERAS JORNADAS AR, P211 ORQUERA L, 1995, ENCUENTRO CONCHALES, V1, P25 ORQUERA L, 1996, RUNA, V22, P187 ORQUERA L, 1999, NUEVA HIST NACION AR, V1, P233 ORQUERA L, 1999, PUBLICACIONES SOCIDA ORQUERA L, 2000, RELACIONES SOC ARGEN, V22, P307 PARKINGTON JE, 2001, HUMANITY AFRICAN NAI, P327 PENDALL E, 2001, QUATERNARY RES, V55, P168 PEREZPEREZ A, 1996, NOTES POPULATION SIG, V1838, P107 PIANA E, 1984, ENSAYOS ANTROPOLOGIA, P9 RABASSA J, 1992, SVERIGES GEOLOGISKA, V81, P249 RABASSA JO, 1986, QUATERNARY S AM ANTA, V4, P291 RIVAS H, 1999, ANALES I PATAGONIA, V27, P221 SAHLINS M, 1972, STONE AGE EC SMITH EA, 1983, CURR ANTHROPOL, V24, P625 SPETH JD, 1990, J ANTHROPOL ARCHAEOL, V9, P148 TUHKANEN S, 1992, ACTA BOT FENN, V145, P1 WINTERHALDER B, 1981, HUNTER GATHERER FORA, P15 YESNER DR, 1980, CURR ANTHROPOL, V21, P727 NR 60 TC 0 J9 QUATERN INT BP 107 EP 115 PY 2005 VL 132 GA 900CI UT ISI:000227192600011 ER PT J AU Jones, GV White, MA Cooper, OR Storchmann, K TI Climate change and global wine quality SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 So Oregon Univ, Dept Geog, Ashland, OR 97520 USA. Utah State Univ, Dept Aquat Watershed & Earth Resources, Logan, UT 84322 USA. Univ Colorado, CIRES, NOAA, Aeron Lab, Boulder, CO 80305 USA. Yale Univ, Dept Econ, New Haven, CT 06520 USA. RP Jones, GV, So Oregon Univ, Dept Geog, 1250 Siskiyou Blvd, Ashland, OR 97520 USA. AB From 1950 to 1999 the majority of the world's highest quality wine-producing regions experienced growing season warming trends. Vintage quality ratings during this same time period increased significantly while year-to-year variation declined. While improved winemaking knowledge and husbandry practices contributed to the better vintages it was shown that climate had, and will likely always have, a significant role in quality variations. This study revealed that the impacts of climate change are not likely to be uniform across all varieties and regions. Currently, many European regions appear to be at or near their optimum growing season temperatures, while the relationships are less defined in the New World viticulture regions. For future climates, model output for global wine producing regions predicts an average warming of 2 degrees C in the next 50 yr. For regions producing high quality grapes at the margins of their climatic limits, these results suggest that future climate change will exceed a climatic threshold such that the ripening of balanced fruit required for existing varieties and wine styles will become progressively more difficult. In other regions, historical and predicted climate changes could push some regions into more optimal climatic regimes for the production of current varietals. In addition, the warmer conditions could lead to more poleward locations potentially becoming more conducive to grape growing and wine production. CR AMERINE MA, 1944, HILGARDIA, V15, P493 ASHENFELTER O, 1995, CHANCE, V8, P7 ASHENFELTER O, 1995, ECON REC, V7, P40 ASHENFELTER O, 2000, VDQS ANN M AJ CORS F BINDI M, 1996, CLIMATE RES, V7, P213 BINDI M, 2000, CLIMATE CHANGE CLIMA, P117 BINDI M, 2001, EUR J AGRON, V14, P145 BROADBENT M, 1980, GREAT VINTAGE WINE B BUTTERFIELD RE, 2000, CLIMATE CHANGE CLIMA CARTER TR, 1991, INT J CLIMATOL, V11, P251 CHAHINE MT, 1992, NATURE, V359, P373 DEBLIJ HJ, 1983, J GEOGR, V82, P112 EASTERLING DR, 2000, B AM METEOROL SOC, V81, P417 FISCHER G, 2002, CLIMATE CHANGE AGR V FOREST CE, 2002, SCIENCE, V295, P113 GLADSTONES J, 1992, VITICULTURE ENV GORDON C, 2000, CLIM DYNAM, V16, P147 HOUGHTON TJ, 2001, CONTRIBUTIONS WORKIN JOHNSON H, 1985, WORLD ATLAS WINE JONES GV, 1997, SYNOPIC CLIMATOLOGIC JONES GV, 2000, AM J ENOL VITICULT, V51, P249 JONES GV, 2001, AGR ECON, V26, P115 JONES GV, 2003, OREGON VITICULTURE, P44 JONES GV, 2004, P VIN DAT QUANT SOC JONES GV, 2005, IN PRESS P 7 INT S G JONES GV, 2005, IN PRESS TERROIR SER KARL TR, 1993, B AM METEOROL SOC, V74, P1007 KENNY GJ, 1992, J WINE RES, V3, P163 LADURIE EL, 1971, TIMES FEAST TIMES FA LEGATES DR, 1990, THEOR APPL CLIMATOL, V41, P11 LOUGH JM, 1983, J CLIM APPL METEOROL, V22, P1673 MAZUR M, 2002, WINE ENTHUSIASTS 200 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 MCINNES KL, 2003, AUST NZ GRAPEGRO FEB, P40 MENZEL A, 1999, NATURE, V397, P659 MOISSELIN JM, 2002, METEOROLOGIE, V38, P45 MOONEN AC, 2002, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V111, P13 MULLINS MG, 1992, BIOL GRAPEVINE NEMANI RR, 2001, CLIMATE RES, V19, P25 PALUTIKOF JP, 2002, J CLIMATE, V15, P3529 PARKER RM, 1985, BORDEAUX DEFINITIVE PENNINGROWSELL EC, 1989, WINES BRODEAUX PFISTER C, 1988, LONG SHORT TERM VARI, P57 POPE VD, 2000, CLIM DYNAM, V16, P123 RAVAL A, 1989, NATURE, V342, P758 RENNER B, 1989, WINE SPIRIT DEC, P55 SCHULTZ HR, 2000, AUST J GRAPE WINE R, V6, P2 STEVENSON T, 2001, NEW SOTHEBYS WINE EN TATE AB, 2001, J WINE RES, V12, P95 UNWIN T, 1991, WINE VINE HIST GEOGR WILLMOTT C, 2002, MONTHLY ANN TIME SER WINKLER JA, 2002, J GREAT LAKES RES, V28, P608 NR 52 TC 3 J9 CLIMATIC CHANGE BP 319 EP 343 PY 2005 PD DEC VL 73 IS 3 GA 000SF UT ISI:000234482000005 ER PT J AU Tol, RSJ TI Adaptation and mitigation: trade-offs in substance and methods SO ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE & POLICY LA English DT Article C1 Univ Hamburg, Res Unit Sustainabil & Global Change, Hamburg, Germany. Ctr Marine & Atmospher Res, Hamburg, Germany. Vrije Univ Amsterdam, Inst Environm Studies, Amsterdam, Netherlands. Carnegie Mellon Univ, Pittsburgh, PA 15213 USA. RP Tol, RSJ, Univ Hamburg, Res Unit Sustainabil & Global Change, Hamburg, Germany. AB Adaptation to climate change and mitigation of climate change are policy substitutes, as both reduce the impacts of climate change. Adaptation and mitigation should therefore be analysed together, as they indeed are, albeit in a rudimentary way, in cost-benefit analyses of emission abatement. However, adaptation and mitigation are done by different people operating at different spatial and temporal scales. This hampers analysis of the trade-offs between adaptation and mitigation. An exception is facilitative adaptation (enhancing adaptive capacity), which, like mitigation, requires long-term policies at macro level. Facilitative adaptation and mitigation not only both reduce impacts, but they also compete for resources. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR ARNELL NW, 2004, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V14, P31 AZAR C, 1996, ECOL ECON, V19, P169 BABIKER M, 2000, ENERG POLICY, V28, P525 BERRITTELLA M, 2004, FNU49 HAMB U CTR MAR BOSELLO F, 2004, FNU38 HAMB U CTR MAR BOSELLO F, 2004, FNU57 HAMB U CTR MAR BUCHNER B, 2002, CLIM POLICY, V2, P273 BURTON I, 1978, ENV HAZARD, V1, P1 BURTON I, 1994, DELTA, V5, P14 BURTON I, 1997, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V36, P185 COHEN SJ, 2000, WATER INT, V25, P253 DARWIN RF, 2001, ENVIRON RESOUR ECON, V19, P113 DOWNING TE, 1997, MITIGATION ADAPTATIO, V2, P19 FANKHAUSER S, 1994, ENVIRON PLANN A, V27, P299 FANKHAUSER S, 1999, ECOL ECON, V30, P67 HAMILONT JM, 2004, FNU36 HAMB U CTR MAR HASSELMANN K, 1997, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V37, P345 HOOZEMANS FMJ, 1993, GLOBAL VULNERABILITY HOPE CW, 1993, ENERG POLICY, V15, P328 IGLESIAS A, 1996, WATER AIR SOIL POLL, V92, P13 KELLY PM, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V47, P325 KLEIN RJT, 2001, J COASTAL RES, V17, P531 LAMB HH, 1982, CLIMATE HIST MODERN MANNE A, 1995, ENERG POLICY, V23, P17 MANNE AS, 1998, ENVIRON MODEL ASSESS, V2, P251 MENDELSOHN R, 1994, AM ECON REV, V84, P753 MILLER KA, 1997, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V35, P157 NICHOLLS RJ, 2004, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V14, P69 NORDHAUS WD, 1991, ECON J, V101, P920 NORDHAUS WD, 1993, RESOUR ENERGY ECON, V15, P27 PARRY ML, 1998, NATURE, V395, P741 PEARCE DW, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, P179 PECK SC, 1992, ENERGY J, V13, P55 ROSENZWEIG C, 1994, NATURE, V367, P133 SCHELLING TC, 1992, AM ECON REV, V82, P1 SCHELLING TC, 1995, ENERG POLICY, V23, P395 SMIT B, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, P877 SMITH JB, 1996, CLIMATE RES, V6, P193 TOL RSJ, IN PRESS ENV DEV EC TOL RSJ, IN PRESS MITIGATION TOL RSJ, 1998, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V8, P109 TOL RSJ, 1998, THEORY IMPLEMENTATIO, P277 TOL RSJ, 1999, ENERGY J SPECIAL ISS, P130 TOL RSJ, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V46, P357 TOL RSJ, 2001, INTEGRATED ASSESSMEN, V2, P173 TULPULE V, 1999, ENERGY J, P257 VANLIESHOUT M, 2004, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V14, P87 WIGLEY TML, 1997, NATURE, V390, P267 YOHE GW, 1996, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V32, P387 YOHE GW, 2002, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V12, P25 YOHE GW, 1995, J ENV EC MANAGE, V9 NR 51 TC 1 J9 ENVIRON SCI POLICY BP 572 EP 578 PY 2005 VL 8 IS 6 GA 991MD UT ISI:000233817200005 ER PT J AU HENNESSEY, TM TI GOVERNANCE AND ADAPTIVE MANAGEMENT FOR ESTUARINE ECOSYSTEMS - THE CASE OF CHESAPEAKE BAY SO COASTAL MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article RP HENNESSEY, TM, UNIV RHODE ISL,DEPT POLIT SCI,WASHBURN HALL,KINGSTON,RI 02881. AB This article analyzes the governance system of the Chesapeake Bay Program in order to examine the hypothesis that it operates according to adaptive management principles. After a discussion of adaptive management and implementation, we analyze the development of the program from its inception in 1976 until the present day. We argue that adaptive management in the program came about via a dynamic relationship between science and governance that evolved through three phases over 16 years. During this time, the Chesapeake Bay Program developed a learning, adaptive capacity whereby program elements and institutional structures underwent significant changes in light of new information. This approach encouraged the evolution of the program from one that initially addressed a limited number of issues using a rudimentary management structure to the current program, which uses a sophisticated set of baywide indicators of ecosystem health and is governed by an institutional structure that coordinates management activities across federal, state, and local governments around the bay in order to implement 29 specific programs in six major policy areas. The article concludes with an overall assessment of the Chesapeake Program that identifies its major strengths and weaknesses. Among the latter are the overall cost of the program, particularly initial investments in characterization and later expenditures on a bay model, and the lateness of evaluative efforts. Finally, we note the difficulty of operationalizing the concept of ecosystem management and the necessity of relying on surrogates to evaluate progress in ecosystem restoration and protection. NR 0 TC 19 J9 COAST MANAGE BP 119 EP 145 PY 1994 PD APR-JUN VL 22 IS 2 GA NR761 UT ISI:A1994NR76100002 ER PT J AU PICCHI, D TI VILLAGE DIVISION IN LOWLAND SOUTH-AMERICA - THE CASE OF THE BAKAIRI INDIANS OF CENTRAL BRAZIL SO HUMAN ECOLOGY LA English DT Article RP PICCHI, D, FRANKLIN PIERCE COLL,COLL RD,POB 60,RINDGE,NH 03461. AB A Brazilian Indian village divided into several settlements during the 1980s. In this article, the political ecology approach is used to account for the process whereby this occurred Data on ecology, subsistence practices, demography, and regional dynamics are presented. Analysis of results explores the articulation between shifts in population levels both in the region and in the Indian reservation, on one hand, with environmental stresses on reservation resources. The effects on national economic development programs on the regional and local levels are also discussed. The relationship between these policies and programs, on one hand, and alterations in local production systems are made explicit. 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CR BOSERUP E, 1965, CONDITIONS AGR GROWT BOSERUP E, 1990, EC DEMOGRAPHIC RELAT MURPHY RF, 1981, TOTEMS TEACHERS PERS, P171 NETTING R, 1976, HUM ECOL, V4, P135 NETTING RM, 1963, THESIS U CHICAGO NETTING RM, 1965, ANTHR Q, V38, P81 NETTING RM, 1968, HILL FARMERS NIGERIA NETTING RM, 1972, ANTHR Q, V45, P132 NETTING RM, 1972, POPULATION GROWTH AN, P219 NETTING RM, 1973, J ANTHROPOL RES, V29, P164 NETTING RM, 1977, CULTURAL ECOLOGY NETTING RM, 1981, BALANCING ALP ECOLOG NETTING RM, 1982, BEHAV SOCIAL SCI RES, P446 NETTING RM, 1984, HOUSEHOLDS COMP HIST NETTING RM, 1986, CULTURAL ECOLOGY NETTING RM, 1989, HUM ECOL, V17, P299 NETTING RM, 1993, SMALLHOLDERS HOUSEHO ORLOVE BS, 1980, ANNU REV ANTHROPOL, V9, P235 OSTROM E, 1987, QUESTION COMMONS OSTROM E, 1990, GOVERNING COMMONS EV RAPPAPORT RA, 1967, PIGS ANCESTORS RITUA, V1, P1 STEWARD JH, 1936, ESSAYS ANTHR PRESENT, P331 STEWARD JH, 1938, BUREAU AM ETHNOLOGY, V120 STEWARD JH, 1955, THEORY CULTURE CHANG VAYDA AP, 1968, INTRO CULTURAL ANTHR, P477 VAYDA AP, 1975, ANNU REV ANTHROPOL, V4, P293 VAYDA AP, 1991, PHILOS SOC SCI, V21, P318 WOLF E, 1957, SW J ANTHR, V13, P1 WOLF ER, 1982, EUROPE PEOPLE HIST NR 29 TC 1 J9 HUM ECOL BP 125 EP 135 PY 1996 PD MAR VL 24 IS 1 GA UB764 UT ISI:A1996UB76400006 ER PT J AU Yarnal, B TI Integrated regional assessment and climate change impacts in river basins SO CLIMATE RESEARCH LA English DT Article C1 Penn State Univ, Dept Geog, University Pk, PA 16802 USA. Penn State Univ, Ctr Integrated Reg Assessment, University Pk, PA 16802 USA. RP Yarnal, B, Penn State Univ, Dept Geog, University Pk, PA 16802 USA. AB Integrated regional assessment of climate change is an interdisciplinary, iterative process that involves scientific, policy, and societal stakeholders. The goal of integrated regional assessment is to promote a better understanding of, and more informed decisions on, how locales and regions contribute to and are affected by climate change. The purpose of the paper is to explain what integrated regional assessment is and how it is being used by practitioners. It aims to promote this approach by offering a more comprehensive account of integrated regional assessment than has been presented before. The article uses the integrated assessment of climate change impacts in river basins to provide a concrete regional basis for discussion. Case studies of 3 integrated assessments of river basins are presented to demonstrate the value of this approach. It is argued that when integrated regional assessment works, it provides an ideal way of bringing together science, society, and policy to face the challenges of climate change. 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Vrije Univ Amsterdam, Inst Environm Studies, NL-1081 HV Amsterdam, Netherlands. Carnegie Mellon Univ, Ctr Integrated Study Human Dimens Global Change, Pittsburgh, PA 15213 USA. RP Tol, RSJ, Univ Hamburg, Ctr Marine & Climate Res, Bundesstr 55, D-20146 Hamburg, Germany. AB One hundred and three estimates of the marginal damage costs of carbon dioxide emissions were gathered from 28 published studies and combined to form a probability density function. The uncertainty is strongly right-skewed. If all studies are combined, the mode is $2/tC, the median $14/tC, the mean $93/tC, and the 95 percentile $350/tC. Studies with a lower discount rate have higher estimates and much greater uncertainties. Similarly, studies that use equity weighing, have higher estimates and larger uncertainties. Interestingly, studies that are peer-reviewed have lower estimates and smaller uncertainties. Using standard assumptions about discounting and aggregation, the marginal damage costs of carbon dioxide emissions are unlikely to exceed $50/tC, and probably much smaller. (c) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 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SVEDIN U, 1988, SWEDISH PERSPECTIVES TANG X, 1988, HUMAN DIMENSIONS GLO THOMAS WL, 1956, MANS ROLE CHANGING F TIMMERMAN P, 1981, ENV MONOGRAPH, V1, P1 TORRENS IM, 1984, ENVIRON INT, V10, P419 TOTH F, 1988, SCENARIOS SOCIOECONO TURNER BL, IN PRESS EARTH TRANS VASKO T, 1987, LONGWAVE DEBATE VAUPEL J, 1986, CANCER RATES OVER AG VERNADSKY VI, 1945, AM SCI, V33, P1 VOGEL D, 1986, NATIONAL STYLES REGU WALLERSTEIN I, 1974, MODERN WORLD SYSTEM WHITE GF, 1988, ENVIRONMENT, V30, P1 WHITE GF, 1988, GREENHOUSE GASES NIL WHYTE AV, 1980, SCOPE15 REP WILDAVSKY A, 1979, SPEAKING TRUTH POWER WILLIAMS GDV, 1988, IMPACT CLIMATIC VARI, V1, P219 WINEIT RA, 1986, INFORMATION BEHAVIOR WOLMAN MG, 1987, LAND TRANSFORMATION WUEBBLES DJ, 1988, DOENBB0083 NR 174 TC 5 J9 INT SOC SCI J BP 315 EP 345 PY 1989 PD AUG VL 41 IS 3 GA AR860 UT ISI:A1989AR86000003 ER PT J AU Lindner, M TI Forest management strategies in the context of potential climate change SO FORSTWISSENSCHAFTLICHES CENTRALBLATT LA German DT Article C1 Potsdam Inst Klimafolgenforsch, D-14412 Potsdam, Germany. RP Lindner, M, Potsdam Inst Klimafolgenforsch, Postfach 601203, D-14412 Potsdam, Germany. AB In forest management there is frequently the need to make decisions with long-term consequences. Forests which are planted today may be exposed to a quite different climate within 50 to 100 years. To date, very few investigations have analysed the impacts of the projected climate changes in managed forests. Consequently there is a need for improved decision support for the development of forest management strategies in the concert of global change. This paper analyses how different forest management strategies influence the adaptation of forest stands to changing environmental conditions. Furthermore, a simulation model was applied to demonstrate the strong influence of management on forest development within the next 110 years under current climate conditions and under a scenario of climate change. The simulation results for a forestry district in northeastern Germany showed that, in all investigated scenarios, climate change affected forest composition and productivity. However, there were also distinct differences between the simulated management strategies. Whereas a conservative management strategy resulted in relatively small changes in simulated species composition but in a strong decrease in productivity between present climate and climate change scenario, an adaptive forest management strategy was able to partly mitigate the reduction in productivity by means of a shift to more drought tolerant tree species. It is concluded that the simulation results of the extended forest gap model with forest management routines provide opportunities to evaluate and optimize forest management strategies for the adaptation of forest stands to changing climatic conditions. 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AB Climate change represents a significant threat to global biodiversity and ecosystem integrity. The UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), which has been ratified by 118 nations and came into force in 1994, has amongst its aims the protection of ecosystems. This paper reviews the relevant text in the Convention and gives an overview of scientific efforts to provide policy-makers with the necessary information on ecosystem impacts. The sensitivity of different types of ecosystem to climatic change is discussed and the concepts of ecological limits and thresholds are addressed and examples given. The paper concludes there is a need for a better understanding of the impacts of climate change on ecosystem resilience in order to maintain biological diversity and respond to the needs of policymakers in implementing the UNFCCC. Recommendations are made for increased research effort, including increased resolution of climate models, better predictive capacity at a regional level for within- and between-year rainfall patterns, seasonality and extreme events. Collaborative monitoring programs, including long-term ecological research along climate gradients, are proposed for 4 biomes: coastal wetlands, montane ecosystems, coral reefs and Arctic ecosystems. 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Fdn Futuro Latinoamer, Quito, Ecuador. IUCN, CH-1196 Gland, Switzerland. UN, Millennium Project, New York, NY 10017 USA. RP Melnick, DJ, Columbia Univ, Ctr Environm Res & Conservat, 1200 Amsterdam Ave, New York, NY 10027 USA. CR MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 *UN MILL PROJ, 2005, ENV HUM WELL BEING P BRUCE N, 2000, B WORLD HEALTH ORGAN, V78, P1078 BURKE L, 2000, PILOT ANAL GLOBAL EC DASZAK P, 2002, CONSERVATION MED ECO FEDSON DS, 2003, CLIN INFECT DIS, V36, P1562 KOJIMA M, 2001, 508 WORLD BANK LOGIUDICE K, 2003, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V100, P567 MANGA L, 1995, ANN SOC BELG MED TR, V75, P129 MOLYNEUX DH, 1997, ANN TROP MED PARASIT, V91, P827 NORRIS DE, 2004, ECOHEALTH, V1, P19 PATZ JA, 2002, CONSERVATION MED ECO PATZ JA, 2004, ENVIRON HEALTH PERSP, V112, P1092 PAULY D, 1998, SCIENCE, V279, P860 PEARL M, 2004, HUMAN I CAPACITY BUI ROBERTS CM, 2002, SCIENCE, V295, P1280 SODHI NS, 2004, TRENDS ECOL EVOL, V19, P654 TAYLOR LH, 2001, PHILOS T ROY SOC B, V356, P983 VASCONCELOS PFC, 2001, CAD SAUDE PUBLICA S, V17, P155 WALSH JF, 1993, PARASITOLOGY, V106, P55 NR 20 TC 2 J9 LANCET BP 723 EP 725 PY 2005 PD FEB 19 VL 365 IS 9460 GA 898SP UT ISI:000227096800031 ER PT J AU Leslie, PW Little, MA TI Human biology and ecology: Variation in nature and the nature of variation SO AMERICAN ANTHROPOLOGIST LA English DT Article C1 Univ N Carolina, Chapel Hill, NC 27599 USA. SUNY Binghamton, Binghamton, NY 13902 USA. RP Leslie, PW, Univ N Carolina, Chapel Hill, NC 27599 USA. AB Human biology seeks to understand human variation and the biological, environmental, social, and historical influences on that variation. Views of the nature of both variation and environment have changed during the past 100 years. Typological approaches to nature and human diversity shifted to an evolutionary perspective during the first half of the 20th century. In the second half, widespread human biological variation was documented and interpreted in terms of adaptation to the environment. Environmental physiology and reproductive ecology continue to document environmental influences on human biological functioning, but with (1) an expanded concept of environment that acknowledges more fully the interactions among its physical, biotic, and social aspects and (2) an expanded theoretical basis, drawing on evolutionary ecology and life history theory, acknowledging tradeoffs and changing constraints and opportunities over the lifetime. Human biology gains from greater interaction with other fields, such as political ecology, but also contributes to them. 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RP Vogel, C, Univ Witwatersrand, Sch Archaeol Geog & Environm Studies, Post Bag 3, ZA-2050 Johannesburg, South Africa. AB Rural, resource-poor communities currently face a number of stressors that curtail livelihood options and reduce overall quality of life. Climate stress in southern Africa could potentially further threaten the livelihoods of such communities. Inappropriate response and adaptation options to risks, including climate stress, could further undermine development efforts in the region. The design and effective implementation of strategies to improve coping and adaptation to possible future risks cannot be undertaken without a detailed assessment of current response options to various risks. By using the Sustainable Livelihoods Framework, this pilot study identifies some of the strategies and constraints to secure livelihoods that are currently being used by small-scale farmers in the Muden area of KwaZulu-Natal. The role and perception of climate risks in relation to a variety of other constraints and risks in the area are also examined. Health status, lack of information and ineffective institutional structures and processes are shown to be some of the key factors aggravating current response options and overall development initiatives with potential negative outcomes for future adaptation to periods of possible heightened climate stress. (C) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 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RP Dwyer, PD, Univ Melbourne, Sch Anthropol Geog & Environm Studies, Melbourne, Vic 3010, Australia. AB Within Papua New Guinea the relationship people have with their pigs varies between societies. These differences arise in the earliest phase of rearing piglets and result in domestic animals whose primary attachments are to other pigs, to places or to people. For Papua New Guineans, different pig management regimes fulfill ecological and social needs. In addition, however, the ways in which pigs are raised and managed, and the presence or absence of a local population of wild pigs, have consequences for the exposure of both domestic pigs and people to parasites that they may host. Effective control of disease-inducing parasites should be attentive to society-specific relationships between people and their pigs. (C) 2005 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved. 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RP Lobell, DB, Lawrence Livermore Natl Lab, Energy & Environm Directorate, 7000 East Ave,L-638, Livermore, CA 94550 USA. AB It is well known that expansion of agriculture into natural ecosystems can have important climatic consequences, but changes occurring within existing croplands also have the potential to effect local and global climate. To better understand the impacts of cropland management practices, we used the NCAR CAM3 general circulation model coupled to a slab-ocean model to simulate climate change under extreme scenarios of irrigation, tillage, and crop productivity. Compared to a control scenario, increases in irrigation and leaf area index and reductions in tillage all have a physical cooling effect by causing increases in planetary albedo. The cooling is most pronounced for irrigation, with simulated local cooling up to similar to 8 degrees C and global land surface cooling of 1.3 degrees C. Increases in soil albedo through reduced tillage are found to have a global cooling effect ( similar to 0.2 degrees C) comparable to the biogeochemical cooling from reported carbon sequestration potentials. By identifying the impacts of extreme scenarios at local and global scales, this study effectively shows the importance of considering different aspects of crop management in the development of climate models, analysis of observed climate trends, and design of policy intended to mitigate climate change. CR MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 ABROL IP, 2005, CONSERVATION AGR STA ADEGOKE JO, 2003, MON WEATHER REV, V131, P556 ANDALES AA, 2000, AGR SYST, V66, P69 BETTS RA, 2001, ATMOS SCI LETT, V2, P39 BONAN GB, 1997, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V37, P449 BONAN GB, 2002, GLOBAL BIOGEOCHEM CY, V16 BOUCHER O, 2004, CLIM DYNAM, V22, P597 BROVKIN V, 1999, GLOBAL ECOL BIOGEOGR, V8, P509 CHASE TN, 2001, J GEOPHYS RES-ATMOS, V106, P31685 COLLINS WD, 2004, NCARTN464STR COOLEY HS, 2005, J GEOPHYS RES-ATMOS, V110 DEFRIES RS, 2002, GLOBAL CHANGE BIOL, V8, P438 DERIDDER K, 1998, J APPL METEOROL, V37, P1470 DIRMEYER PA, 2005, 192 COLA NASA GODD S FEDDEMA JJ, 2005, SCIENCE, V310, P1674 GIBBARD S, 2005, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V32 GOVINDASAMY B, 2001, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V28, P291 GREGORY PJ, 2002, AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON, V88, P279 KOSTER RD, 2004, SCIENCE, V305, P1138 LAL R, 2004, SCIENCE, V304, P1623 LOVELAND TR, 2000, INT J REMOTE SENS, V21, P1303 MAHMOOD R, 2004, INT J CLIMATOL, V24, P311 MAIERREIMER E, 1987, CLIM DYNAM, V2, P63 MATTHEWS HD, 2003, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V30 MATTHIAS AD, 2000, SOIL SCI SOC AM J, V64, P1035 MEYER WB, 1992, ANNU REV ECOL SYST, V23, P39 MYHRE G, 2003, J CLIMATE, V16, P1511 OLESON K, 2004, NCARTN461STR PIELKE RA, 2001, REV GEOPHYS, V39, P151 SITCH S, 2005, GLOBAL BIOGEOCHEM CY, V19 TIAN Y, 2004, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V31 NR 32 TC 2 J9 GEOPHYS RES LETT PY 2006 PD MAR 23 VL 33 IS 6 GA 026NE UT ISI:000236344900008 ER PT J AU Turner, MD TI Merging local and regional analyses of land-use change: The case of livestock in the Sahel SO ANNALS OF THE ASSOCIATION OF AMERICAN GEOGRAPHERS LA English DT Review C1 Int Livestock Res Ctr, Niamey, Niger. RP Turner, MD, Int Livestock Res Ctr, Niamey, Niger. AB This paper argues against the dichotomization of "regional" and "local" analyses of land-use change by environmental geographers. Such dichotomization has led regional analyses to unnecessarily exclude from consideration ecological, sociocultural, and political factors identified to be important in local studies, Simple rules of evidence that systematically label such factors as "locally specific" facilitate such exclusion. For example, gender relations in rural Africa, while shown in local studies to play an important role in land-use change, are often excluded from consideration in regional analyses. This study analyzes the causes behind the regionwide shift toward small stock (sheep and goats) in the Sahel, using demographic and transaction histories (1984-1994) of livestock owned by members of fifty-four households in western Niger. Changes in the composition of this livestock population replicate that observed across the region in direction and magnitude. An analysis of these data demonstrates that the shift in species composition is not driven by changes in price or livestock productivity. While species preferences of individual owners (controlled by wealth) have not changed over the period, the distribution of livestock ownership has changed, with smallholders and women controlling a larger fraction of aggregate livestock wealth. The gendered shift in livestock wealth is closely associated with struggles between men and women over their relative obligations to support the family. Women's situation within the household has led some to accumulate large herds of small stock. Key features of intrahousehold struggles contributing to the shift in livestock composition in Niger are common across the Sudano-Sahelian region. The broader implications of these findings for the analysis of regional changes in land use are discussed. CR *I RECH SCI HUM, 1977, ET SAY RAPP FIN *MIN AGR EL, 1993, ANN STAT AGR EL 1991 *UN SUD SAH OFF, 1992, ASS DES DROUGHT SUD AMANOR KS, 1995, AFRICA, V65, P351 ANDERSON D, 1987, CONSERVATION AFRICA BASSETT TJ, 1986, GEOGR REV, V76, P233 BASSETT TJ, 1988, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V78, P433 BASSETT TJ, 1994, CAH ETUD AFR, V34, P147 BELLOT JM, 1980, THESIS U BORDEAUX 3 BLACK R, 1990, T I BRIT GEOGR, V15, P35 BLAIKIE PM, 1985, POLITICAL EC SOIL ER BLAIKIE PM, 1987, LAND DEGRADATION SOC BLAIKIE PM, 1994, CASID DISTINGUISHED, V13 BONFIGLIOLI AM, 1985, J AFRICANISTES, V55, P29 BOURN D, 1994, 37A OV DEV I BUTTEL F, 1994, SOCIAL THEORY GLOBAL, P228 CALLAWAY B, 1994, HERITAGE ISLAM WOMEN CARNEY JA, 1992, DEV CHANGE, V23, P67 CHISHOLM M, 1980, T I BRIT GEOGR, V5, P255 CLARK WC, 1985, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V7, P5 CLOUD K, 1986, WOMEN FARMERS AFRICA, P19 COLES C, 1991, HAUSA WOMEN 20 CENTU, P163 COMAROFF J, 1991, HERDERS WARRIORS TRA, P33 COOPER B, 1997, MARRIAGE MARADI GEND COSSINS NJ, 1985, ILCA B, V21, 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GEOGR, V50, P256 HECHT SB, 1985, WORLD DEV, V13, P663 HIERNAUX P, 1996, 39A OV DEV ADM HIERNAUX P, 1996, RANGELANDS SUSTAINAB, P230 HILL P, 1972, RURAL HAUSA VILLAGE HUTCHINSON S, 1992, AM ETHNOL, V19, P294 JAROSZ L, 1993, ECON GEOGR, V69, P366 KIMBA I, 1981, ETUDES NIGERIENNES, V46 KULIBABA NP, 1991, LIVESTOCK MEAT TRANS LEACH M, 1996, LIE LAND MCINTIRE J, 1989, MILLET SYSTEM W NIGE METZEL J, 1993, EC COMP ADVANTAGE IN MEYER WB, 1992, ANNU REV ECOL SYST, V23, P39 MONIMART M, 1989, FEMMES SAHEL DESERTI MORTIMORE MJ, 1989, ADAPTING DROUGHT FAR MOULIN CH, 1993, THESIS I NATL AGRONO NGAIDO T, 1996, THESIS U WISCONSIN M NICOLAS J, 1967, ETUDES NIGERIENNES, V21 OBOLER RS, 1996, HUM ECOL, V24, P255 PAINTER T, 1994, AFRICAN POPULATION C, P122 PAPMA A, 1989, MAI TIFIA CELLES QUI PEDERSEN J, 1995, POP STUD-J DEMOG, V49, P111 PEET R, 1993, ECON GEOGR, V69, P227 PELUSO NL, 1993, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V3, P199 PORTER PW, 1978, AM BEHAV SCI, V22, P15 PROST A, 1970, B I FONDAMENTALE A B, V32, P486 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1985, 9 LPU INT LIV CTR AF TOULMIN C, 1992, CATTLE WOMEN WELLS M TURNER BL, 1990, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V1, P14 TURNER BL, 1997, ECUMENE, V4, P196 TURNER M, 1993, ECON GEOGR, V69, P402 VANKEULEN H, 1990, AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON, V32, P177 VERMEER DE, 1981, GEOGR REV, V71, P281 VOH AA, 1989, ANIM REPROD SCI, V19, P191 WAGENAAR KT, 1986, 13 INT LIV CTR AFR WATTS MJ, 1983, INTERPRETATIONS CALA, P231 WATTS MJ, 1983, SILENT VIOLENCE FOOD WHITE C, 1990, PROPERTY POVERTY PEO, P240 WHITE F, 1983, VEGETATION AFRICA WHITEHEAD A, 1990, POLITICAL EC HUNGER, P427 WILLIAMS M, 1994, J HIST GEOGR, V20, P3 WILLIAMS TO, 1994, AGR SYST, V46, P227 WILLIAMS TO, 1995, LIVESTOCK SUSTAINABL, P393 WILSON RT, 1986, 14 ILCA INT LIV CTR WILSON RT, 1989, ANIM REPROD SCI, V20, P265 ZIMMERER K, 1996, CONCEPTS HUMAN GEOGR, P161 NR 119 TC 14 J9 ANN ASSN AMER GEOGR BP 191 EP 219 PY 1999 PD JUN VL 89 IS 2 GA 199MM UT ISI:000080486000001 ER PT J AU KONAKOV, ND TI ECOLOGICAL ADAPTATION OF KOMI RESETTLED GROUPS SO ARCTIC ANTHROPOLOGY LA English DT Article RP KONAKOV, ND, SYKTYVKAR LANGUAGE LITERATURE & HIST INST,SYKTYVKAR,RUSSIA. AB The Komi [Zyriane or Zyrian] people have inhabited the European Northeast of Russia since ancient times. Komi groups first appeared in the Vychegda River basin in the first millennium A.D. In the course of the following centuries, they spread into the Pechora River basin. The northernmost groups, who adopted reindeer husbandry from the Nentsy, spread with their herds as far as the shores of the arctic Ocean. At present, the main body of the Komi, numbering about 300,000, occupies the territory of the Komi Autonomous Republic of the former USSR. Their language belongs to the Finno-Ugric linguistic family. However, as a result of migration processes, about 46,000 Komi now reside outside of their autonomous territory. Among this number are groups which live in compact ethnic enclaves developed in the course of their history. This paper is focused on these groups. The factors by means of which ecological adaptation is achieved in new territories are examined. The problem of recreating-in a new environment-the traditional economic system, which functioned as the basis of stability of the traditional cultural-economic complex as a whole, is given special attention. CR ARUTYUNOV SA, 1982, ETNOS DOKLASSOVOM RA, P55 BARAKSANOV GG, 1987, OMSKIE KOMI CHARNOLUSKII VV, 1930, KOLSKII SBORNIK ENGELGARDT AP, 1897, PROVINCE N FEDOTOV VS, 1955, OLENEVODCHESKII KOLK INDOVA EI, 1973, MATERIALY ISTORII EV, V3, P235 KHARUZIN NN, 1890, RUSSKIE LOPARI KHOMICH LV, 1977, ETNOGRAFICHESKIE ISS KIHLMAN AO, 1890, 1889 SCI EXP RUSS LA, V3 KOLMOGOROV A, 1906, ZEMLEVEDENIE, P136 KOMAKOV ND, 1987, SMENY KULTUR MIGRATS, P129 KONAKOV ND, 1983, KOMI HUNTERS FISHERM KONAKOV ND, 1990, ETNOAREALNYE GRUPPY LASHUK LP, 1958, ESSAY ETHNIC HIST PE MELETIEV L, 1909, COMMUNICATIONS ARKHA, V8, P35 OBORIN VA, 1960, UCHENYE ZAPISKI PERM, V12, P219 SABUROVA LM, 1967, CULTURE DAILY LIFE R SAVELEVA EA, 1971, VYCHEGDA PERM PEOPLE SHUKHOV IN, 1927, KOMI MU, V8, P39 ZHEREBTSOV LN, 1972, KOMI SETTLEMENT AREA ZHEREBTSOV LN, 1982, HIST CULTURAL INTERR NR 21 TC 0 J9 ARCTIC ANTHROPOL BP 92 EP 102 PY 1993 VL 30 IS 2 GA ML250 UT ISI:A1993ML25000005 ER PT J AU Ahmad, QK TI Towards poverty alleviation: The water sector perspectives SO INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF WATER RESOURCES DEVELOPMENT LA English DT Article C1 Bangladesh Unnayan Parishad, Dhaka 1212, Bangladesh. RP Ahmad, QK, Bangladesh Unnayan Parishad, Plot 50,Block D,Gulshan 1, Dhaka 1212, Bangladesh. AB Given the context of diminishing water availability as a result of water pollution and inadequate development of water resources on the supply side and. increasing population and expanding economic activity on the demand side, this paper reviews water-poverty interfaces and suggests ways of contributing to poverty alleviation through water sector interventions. The unequal distribution of the available water within communities and among various water users in the same country and across countries is discussed as a key issue in this context. The paper examines the causes of poverty with particular reference to the pattern of access to water supply as well as to water for various economic activities. It also considers water-related disasters such as flood, cyclone and riverbank erosion and their adverse human and natural consequences. Water deprivation is seen as both a state and a process-the former being the situation prevailing at a particular point of time and the later implying how that state has been reached and how may it evolve in future. The paper argues that the water crisis is primarily one of management, given the persisting traditional-sectorally focused and fragmented-approach. The appropriate alternative, it is argued, is integrated water resource management (IWRM), which is holistic in approach and focuses on the various uses of water and different categories of its users. It suggests ways of moving forward in terms of improved and participatory water development and management, which can contribute significantly to poverty alleviation. The second part of the paper highlights the National Water Policy of Bangladesh as a case study. The policy, adopted in 1999, broadly encompasses the various elements of IWRM. It enunciates principles and directions for water planning and utilization towards fulfilling the national goals of economic development, poverty alleviation, food security, public health and safety, decent standard of living of the people and protection of the natural environment. The policy has adopted a holistic approach and provided guidelines for participatory water management. The paper points out that a Bangladesh National Water Management Plan has been drafted within the framework of the National Water Policy with a view to improving water development and management so as to address human, economic and environmental needs of water, with special emphasis on the water needs of the poorer segments of society. CR 2001, BONN INT C FRESW 3 7 *GLOB WAT PARTN, 2000, WAT SEC FRAM ACT MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 *MIN WAT RES, 1999, NAT WAT POL *MIN WAT RES, 2000, GUID PART WAT MAN *UNDP, 2002, HUM DEV REP 2002 *WAT RES PLANN ORG, 2001, DRAFT NAT WAT MAN PL *WORLD WAT COMM, 2000, WAT SEC WORLD VIS WA AHMAD QK, 2000, BANGLADESH WATER VIS AHMAD QK, 2001, GANGES BRAHMAPUTRA M MOHAMMED A, 2002, S AS WAT CLIM TASK F STAMOULIS KG, 2001, FOOD AGR RURAL DEV C NR 12 TC 0 J9 INT J WATER RESOUR DEV BP 263 EP 277 PY 2003 PD JUN VL 19 IS 2 GA 696PA UT ISI:000183894200014 ER PT J AU Palutikof, JP Agnew, MD Hoar, MR TI Public perceptions of unusually warm weather in the UK: impacts, responses and adaptations SO CLIMATE RESEARCH LA English DT Article C1 Univ E Anglia, Sch Environm Sci, Climat Res Unit, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. RP Palutikof, JP, Univ E Anglia, Sch Environm Sci, Climat Res Unit, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. AB Evidence of socio-economic sensitivity to climate variability is accumulating and is largely based on modelling studies. This paper examines the impacts of climate extremes (unusually hot summers and unusually warm winters) from the perspective of the perception of the general public. Postal surveys were conducted for 2 regions in the UK: (1) southern England and (2) central and southern Scotland. Information was gathered regarding attitudes to warm climate anomalies, the perceived risks and benefits of recent extremes, and the perceived potential risks and benefits of such anomalies becoming more common in the future. The impacts of climate extremes were assessed with regard to (1) the individual's 'everyday life' and (2) the national 'good'. The responses indicate a high level of awareness of the impacts of climate extremes and deep concerns about global warming tempered by an appreciation that there is potential for both positive and negative outcomes. For several issues, the perception of respondents from Scotland and England differed significantly. In particular, more English than Scottish residents judge unusually warm summers as having a severe negative impact on agriculture and air quality than do Scottish residents. We suggest that regional differences in climate could at least in part explain the apparent geographic differences in response. The results indicate both short-term and long-term adaptive and behavioural responses to a season of exceptional warmth and a willingness to implement further lifestyle adjustments for a hypothetical future in which such events become more common. CR *CCIRG, 1996, REV POT EFF CLIM CHA WATSON RT, 1998, REGIONAL IMPACTS CLI, V1, P1 *IPCC, 2001, 3 IPCC *MAFF, 2000, CLIM CHANG AGR UK *NAT ASS SYNTH TEA, 2000, CLIM CHANG IMP US PO *SCOTT OFF, 1998, SCOTT ABSTR STAT *STAT OFF, 2001, NAT STAT REG TRENDS ADER CR, 1995, JOURNALISM MASS COMM, V72, P300 ARNELL NW, 1996, GLOBAL WARMING RIVER BERK RA, 1995, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V19, P1 BERK RA, 1999, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V41, P413 BORD RJ, 1998, CLIMATE RES, V11, P75 BORD RJ, 2000, PUBLIC UNDERST SCI, V9, P205 BRUGGE R, 1992, WEATHER, V47, P230 CANNELL MGR, 1993, IMPACTS MILD WINTERS DARIER E, 1998, WP981 ULYSSES DARMST DEGAETANO AT, 1999, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V42, P539 DOWNING TE, 1999, 21 U OXF ENV CHANG U DUKES M, 1997, CLIMATES BRIT ISLES, P262 DUNLAP RE, 1998, INT SOCIOL, V13, P473 GONZALEZ LE, 1997, CLIMATE RES, V9, P95 GOWDA MVR, 1997, B AM METEOROL SOC, V78, P2232 HARRISON CM, 1996, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V6, P215 HAUGHTON G, 1998, T I BRIT GEOGR, V23, P419 HULME M, 1997, EC IMPACTS HOT SUMME, P5 HULME M, 1999, INDICATORS CLIMATE C, P6 HULME M, 2002, CLIMATE CHANGE SCENA JONES PD, 1997, INT J CLIMATOL, V17, P427 JORDAN A, 2000, 200001 CSERGE U E AN KEMPTON W, 1991, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V1, P183 KEMPTON W, 1991, SOC NATUR RESOUR, V4, P331 KEMPTON W, 1997, ENVIRONMENT, V39, P12 KRAMER K, 1996, CLIMATE RES, V7, P31 KROSNICK JA, 2000, PUBLIC UNDERST SCI, V9, P239 MARSH TJ, 1996, P I CIVIL ENG-WATER, V118, P189 MARSH TJ, 1996, WEATHER, V51, P46 MARTENS P, 1998, HLTH CLIMATE CHANGE MCMICHAEL AJ, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE HUMAN OCONNOR RE, 1998, RISK ANAL, V18, P547 OCONNOR RE, 1999, RISK ANAL, V19, P461 PARRY ML, 2000, ASSESSMENT POTENTIAL PERRON B, 2001, SOC NATUR RESOUR, V14, P837 RUDIG W, 1995, 101 U STRATHCL DEP G SCHELLNHUBER HJ, 1994, PIK REPORTS, V2 SEACREST S, 2000, J AM WATER RESOUR AS, V36, P253 SHANAHAN J, 2000, PUBLIC UNDERST SCI, V9, P285 STAMM KR, 2000, PUBLIC UNDERST SCI, V9, P219 STERNGOLD A, 1994, PUBLIC OPIN QUART, V58, P255 STOLLKLEEMANN S, 2001, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V11, P107 SUBAK S, 2000, WATER RESOUR MANAG, V14, P137 UNGAR S, 2000, PUBLIC UNDERST SCI, V9, P297 NR 51 TC 0 J9 CLIMATE RES BP 43 EP 59 PY 2004 PD APR 19 VL 26 IS 1 GA 830AY UT ISI:000222095200005 ER PT J AU Siemens, AH TI Modeling the tropical wetland landscape and adaptations SO AGRICULTURE AND HUMAN VALUES LA English DT Article C1 Univ British Columbia, Dept Geog, Vancouver, BC V5Z 1M9, Canada. RP Siemens, AH, 41-1550 Larkhall Crescent, N Vancouver, BC V7H 2Z2, Canada. AB Prolonged investigations of past and present use of wetland margins in various lowlands within Latin America have yielded a wealth of detail. It has become necessary to search out regularities in the natural environmental context and the human adaptations, all of which can be done advantageously in the context of the concept of landscape. Such a move in the direction of theory is attempted here by means of a heuristic model and an exploration of variations in its expression. The discussion of seasonal as well as longer termed change in the natural environment and human adaptation is easily accomodated. The essay includes a brief consideration of some of the recent directions in the investigation of the tropical wetland landscape. CR COE MD, 1980, LAND OLMEC, V2 CROSSLEY PL, 1995, THESIS U TEXAS AUSTI CYPHERS A, 2000, MOUNDS MODOC MESOAME, V28, P99 DENEVAN WM, 2001, CULTIVATED LANDSCAPE DEVEVAN WM, 1978, ADV ANDEAN ARCHAEOLO, P235 DIOSDADO AH, 1985, SERIA ANTROPOLOGICA, V59 ERICKSON CL, 1995, ARCHAEOLOGY LOWLAND ERICKSON CL, 1999, ANTIQUITY, V73, P634 HEIMO M, 1998, THESIS U BRIT COLUMB HIRAOKA M, 1985, NATIONAL GEOGRAPHIC, V1, P236 HODELL DA, 1995, NATURE, V375, P391 NAIMAN RJ, 1990, MAN BIOSPHERE SERIES, V4 ODUM EP, 1971, FUNDAMENTALS ECOLOGY OROZCOSEGOVIA ADL, 1979, 43 C AM RICE DS, 1996, ARQUEOLOGIA MESOAMER, V2, P109 SCHOLES FV, 1968, MAYA CHONTAL INDIANS SIEMENS AH, 1972, AM ANTIQUITY, V37, P228 SIEMENS AH, 1982, BIOTICA, V3, P343 SIEMENS AH, 1983, AM ANTIQUITY, V48, P85 SIEMENS AH, 1989, TIERRA CONFIGURADA P SIEMENS AH, 1998, FAVORED PLACE SAN JU SIEMENS AH, 1999, ESTUDIOS HIST AMBIEN, V1, P219 SIEMENS AH, 1999, PACIFIC LATIN AM PRE SIEMENS AH, 2000, REV CESLA WARSAW, P57 SIEMENS AH, 2002, ANCIENT MESOAMERICA, V13, P1 WEST RC, 1969, TABASCO LOWLANDS SE WILK RR, 1981, THESIS U ARIZONA NR 27 TC 0 J9 AGRIC HUMAN VALUES BP 243 EP 254 PY 2004 PD SUM-FAL VL 21 IS 2-3 GA 838HT UT ISI:000222704800013 ER PT J AU McNeely, JA TI Conserving forest biodiversity in times of violent conflict SO ORYX LA English DT Article C1 IUCN World Conservat Union, CH-1196 Gland, Switzerland. RP McNeely, JA, IUCN World Conservat Union, CH-1196 Gland, Switzerland. AB Forests are often frontiers, and like all frontiers, they are sites of dynamic social, ecological, political and economic changes. Such dynamism involves constantly changing advantages and disadvantages to different groups of people, which not surprisingly can lead to armed conflict, and all too frequently to war. Many governments have contributed to conflict, however inadvertently, by nationalizing their forests, so that traditional forest inhabitants have been disenfranchised while national governments sell the rights to trees in order to earn foreign exchange. Biodiversity-rich tropical forests in Papua New Guinea, Indonesia, Indochina, Myanmar, Sri Lanka, Central and West Africa, the Amazon, Colombia, Central America and New Caledonia have all been the sites of armed conflict in recent years, sometimes involving international forces. Forests have sometimes been part of the cause of conflict (as in Myanmar and Sierra Leone) but more often victims of it. Violent conflicts in temperate areas also typically involve forests as shelters for both civilians and combatants, as in the Balkans. While these conflicts have frequently, even invariably, caused negative impacts on biodiversity, peace can be even worse, as it enables forest exploitation to operate with impunity. Because many of the remaining forests are along international borders, international cooperation is required for their conservation. As one response, the concept of international "Peace Parks" is being promoted in many parts of the world as a way of linking biodiversity conservation with national security. The Convention on Biological Diversity, which entered into force at the end of 1993 and now has 187 State Parties, offers a useful framework for such cooperation. 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RP Benitez, PC, Univ Victoria, Dept Econ, POB 1700 STN CSC, Victoria, BC V8W 2Y2, Canada. AB we have provided a framework for identifying least-cost sites for afforestation and reforestation and deriving carbon sequestration cost curves at a global level in a scenario of limited information. Special attention is given to country risk in developing countries and the sensitivity to spatial datasets. Our model results suggest that within 20 years and considering a carbon price of US$50/tC, tree-planting activities could offset 1 year of global carbon emissions in the energy sector. However, if we account for country risk considerations-associated with political, economic and financial risks-carbon sequestration is reduced by approximately 60%. With respect to the geography of supply, illustrated by grid-scale maps, we find that most least-cost sites are located in regions of developing countries such as the Sub-Sahara, Southeast Brazil and Southeast Asia. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. CR *CIESIN, 2000, CTR INT EARTH SCI IN *ECOSECURITIES, 2002, BAS DET PLANT EV EM *ESRI, 1998, WORLD COUNTR 1998 EN *FAO, 2001, GLOB FOR RES ASS 200 *FAO, 2002, FAOSTAT DAT FOOD AGR *FFC, 2003, 3 MONTH TREAS CONST *GTOPO30, 1996, GLOB DIG EL MOD HOR *IPCC, 2000, LAND US LAND US CHAN MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 *JRC, 2003, GLOB LAND COV 2000 D *MODIS, 2002, TERR LAND COV TYP 96 *PRS, 2004, TABL T2C COMP RISK F *UNFCCC, 1998, REP C PART ITS 3 SES *USGS, 2003, GLOB LAND COV CHAR G *WORLD BANK, 2003, WORLD DEV IND ALEXANDROV GA, 1999, ECOL MODEL, V123, P183 ALEXANDROV GA, 2002, ECOL MODEL, V148, P293 BEKAERT G, 1995, J FINANC, V50, P403 BENITEZ PC, FOREST POLICY EC CACHO OJ, 2002, C P AUSTR NZ SOC EC CREEDY J, 2001, ECOL ECON, V38, P71 DEJONG BHJ, 2000, ECOL ECON, V33, P313 ERB CB, 1996, PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT, P46 ERB CB, 1996, WP9606 DUK U CAMBRID FEARNSIDE PM, 1995, BIOMASS BIOENERG, V8, P309 GRITSEVSKYI A, 2003, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V56, P167 HANSEN MC, 2000, INT J REMOTE SENS, V21, P1331 KRCMAR E, 2005, 200506 REPA MASERA OR, 1995, BIOMASS BIOENERG, V8, P357 NIEUWENHUYSE A, 2000, FOREST ECOL MANAG, V137, P23 NILSSON S, 1995, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V30, P267 OLSCHEWSKI R, 2005, ECOL ECON, V55, P380 RAMANKUTTY N, 2001, GLOBAL DISTRIBUTION RAVINDRANATH NH, 1995, BIOMASS BIOENERG, V8, P323 SEDJO R, 1999, POTENTIAL CARBON FOR SIJM J, 2000, KYOTO MECH ROLE JOIN SOHNGEN B, 1999, AM J AGR ECON, V81, P1 SOHNGEN B, 2003, AM J AGR ECON, V85, P448 STAVINS RN, 1999, AM ECON REV, V89, P994 TREXLER MC, 1995, KEEPING GREEN EVALUA VANKOOTEN GC, 1995, AM J AGR ECON, V77, P365 VANKOOTEN GC, 2002, LAND ECON, V78, P559 XU DY, 1995, BIOMASS BIOENERG, V8, P337 NR 43 TC 0 J9 ECOL ECON BP 572 EP 583 PY 2007 PD JAN 15 VL 60 IS 3 GA 129PN UT ISI:000243741500011 ER PT J AU Sunyer, J Grimalt, J TI Global climate change, widening health inequalities, and epidemiology SO INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF EPIDEMIOLOGY LA English DT Editorial Material C1 Univ Pompeu Fabra, Unitat Rec Resp Ambiental, IMIM, Barcelona, Spain. CSIC, Cid, ES-08034 Barcelona, Spain. RP Sunyer, J, Univ Pompeu Fabra, Unitat Rec Resp Ambiental, IMIM, Barcelona, Spain. CR *WHO, 2002, WORLDS HLTH REP 2002 ARNELL NW, 2002, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V53, P413 EPSTEIN PR, 1998, B AM METEOROL SOC, V79, P409 EPSTEIN PR, 2005, NEW ENGL J MED, V353, P1433 GOUVEIA N, 2003, INT J EPIDEMIOL, V32, P241 HASSOL SJ, 2004, IMPACTS WARMING ARCT HAY SI, 2002, NATURE, V415, P905 HOLSTEIN J, 2005, J PUBLIC HEALTH, V27, P359 HOPP MJ, 2003, CLIMATE RES, V25, P85 KEARNEY MS, 2002, EOS T AM GEOPHYS UN, V83, P173 KLINENBERG E, 2003, HEAT WAVE SOCIAL AUT KOSATSKY T, 2005, EURO SURVEILL, V10, P148 LUTERBACHER J, 2004, SCIENCE, V303, P1499 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 MCMICHAEL AJ, 2001, P NUTR SOC, V60, P195 MCMICHAEL AJ, 2004, COMP QUANTIFICATION, P1543 MICHELOZZI P, 2004, MMWR-MORBID MORTAL W, V53, P369 PATZ JA, 2005, NATURE, V438, P310 ROGERS DJ, 2000, SCIENCE, V289, P1763 SCHAR C, 2004, NATURE, V427, P332 TANSER FC, 2003, LANCET, V362, P1792 WEBSTER PJ, 2005, SCIENCE, V309, P1844 NR 22 TC 1 J9 INT J EPIDEMIOL BP 213 EP 216 PY 2006 PD APR VL 35 IS 2 GA 033AI UT ISI:000236817900002 ER PT J AU Bandy, MS TI Fissioning, scalar stress, and social evolution in early village societies SO AMERICAN ANTHROPOLOGIST LA English DT Review C1 Univ Calif Los Angeles, Cotsen Inst Archaeol, Los Angeles, CA 90095 USA. RP Bandy, MS, Univ Calif Los Angeles, Cotsen Inst Archaeol, Los Angeles, CA 90095 USA. AB Theories of social evolution have predicted that early permanent population concentrations will frequently be unstable, with fissioning the predominant mechanism for resolving intravillage conflict. It has further been suggested that village fissioning will cease with the emergence of higher-level integrative institutions. These processes have remained archaeologically undocumented. In this article I attempt to identify the village fissioning process in the Formative Period of Bolivia's Titicaca Basin. I conclude that village fissioning took place in the Early Formative, and that it ceased with the emergence of a regional religious tradition in the Middle Formative. These results confirm the utility and applicability of the evolutionary model. 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RP Ford, JD, Univ Guelph, Dept Geog, Guelph, ON N1G 2W1, Canada. AB This paper develops a vulnerability-based approach to characterize the human implications of climate change in Arctic Bay, Canada. It focuses on community vulnerabilities associated with resource harvesting and the processes through which people adapt to them in the context of livelihood assets, constraints, and outside influences. Inuit in Arctic Bay have demonstrated significant adaptability in the face of changing climate-related exposures. This adaptability is facilitated by traditional Inuit knowledge, strong social networks, flexibility in seasonal hunting cycles, some modern technologies, and economic support. Changing Inuit livelihoods, however, have undermined certain aspects of adaptive capacity, and have resulted in emerging vulnerabilities in certain sections of the community. (C) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 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IMPAC, P184 WATTS MJ, 1993, PROG HUM GEOG, V17, P43 WENZEL G, 1991, ANIMAL RIGHTS HUMAN WENZEL G, 2001, INUIT STUDIES, V25, P37 WILKINSON D, 1955, LAND LONG DAY WOOLCOCK M, 2000, WORLD BANK RES OBSER, V15, P225 NR 132 TC 1 J9 GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANGE BP 145 EP 160 PY 2006 PD MAY VL 16 IS 2 GA 051NM UT ISI:000238167800004 ER PT J AU KAR, RK TI HUMAN ADAPTABILITY IN NORTHEAST INDIA SO CURRENT ANTHROPOLOGY LA English DT Article RP KAR, RK, DIBRUGARH UNIV,DEPT ANTHROPOL,DIBRUGARH 786004,INDIA. NR 0 TC 0 J9 CURR ANTHROPOL BP 133 EP 133 PY 1978 VL 19 IS 1 GA ES441 UT ISI:A1978ES44100012 ER PT J AU Mirza, MMQ TI Climate change and extreme weather events: can developing countries adapt? SO CLIMATE POLICY LA English DT Article C1 Univ Toronto, Inst Environm Studies, AIRG, Toronto, ON M5S 3E8, Canada. RP Mirza, MMQ, Univ Toronto, Inst Environm Studies, AIRG, 33 Willcocks St, Toronto, ON M5S 3E8, Canada. AB Developing countries are vulnerable to extremes of normal climatic variability, and climate change is likely to increase the frequency and magnitude of some extreme weather events and disasters. Adaptation to climate change is dependent on current adaptive capacity and the development models that are being pursued by developing countries. Various frameworks are available for vulnerability and adaptation (V&A) assessments, and they have both advantages and limitations. Investments in developing countries are more focused on recovery from a disaster than on the creation of adaptive capacity. Extreme climatic events create a spiral of debt burden on developing countries. Increased capacity to manage extreme weather events can reduce the magnitude of economic, social and human damage and eventually, investments, in terms of borrowing money from the lending agencies. Vulnerability to extreme weather events, disaster management and adaptation must be part of long-term sustainable development planning in developing countries. Lending agencies and donors need to reform their investment policies in developing countries to focus more on capacity building instead of just investing in recovery operations and infrastructure development. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *CRED, 2000, CURR PRACT MEAS IMP *GOO, 2000, NAT OUR STAT *IDB, 1999, OP 704 NAT UN DIS *IFRC RCS, 2001, WORLD DIS REP FOC RE *IFRC RCS, 2002, WORLD DIS REP 2002 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 *IPCC, 2001, CLIM CHANG 2001 *MUN REINS, 1999, CLIM CHANG INCR LOSS *OCAA, 1998, REC NAC HOND *SWISS REINS CO, 1998, FLOODS INS RISK *SWISS REINS CO, 2000, NAT CAT MAN MAD DIS *UK MED OFF, 1999, IND CYCL FACT SHEET *UNDP, 1998, STAT GOV EXP TRENDS *UNDP, 2001, EL AD POL FRAM TECHN *UNFCCC, 2002, GUID CLIM CHANG CONV *WORLD BANK, 1999, WORLD BANK DEV IND *WORLD BANK, 2000, WORLD DEV REP 2000 2, P161 *WSWS, 2001, MOZ FLOOD DIS RET AHMED AU, 2000, PERSPECTIVES FLOOD 1, P67 ALBALABERTRAND JM, 1993, POLITICAL EC LARGE N, P259 ANDERSON MB, 1990, 29 WORLD BANK BENIOFF R, 1996, VULNERABILITY ADAPTA BENSON C, 2000, DISASTER RISK MANAGE, V2 BURTON I, 1999, COME HELL HIGH WATER CARTER TR, 1994, IPCC TECHNICAL GUIDE DYSON LL, 2001, S AFR J SCI, V97, P80 FEENSTRA J, 1998, HDB METHODS CLIMATE FREEMAN PK, 2001, ANN BANK C DEV EC EU FREEMAN PK, 2001, INFRASTRUCTURE NATUR KHUDA ZRM, 2000, PERSPECTIVES FLOOD 1, P31 KRINER S, 2000, 3 MONTHS SUPER CYCLO MIRZA MMQ, 2001, ENV HAZARDS, V3, P37 PAGE DL, 2000, FLOODS PREDICTABLE D ROBINSON A, 1999, SUPER CYCLONE EXPOSE SHOOK G, 1997, DISASTERS, V21, P77 SMITHERS JC, 2001, WATER SA, V27, P25 VAZ AC, 2000, INT C MOZ FLOODS MAP WARRICK RA, 2000, J ENV DEV, V7, P43 NR 38 TC 0 J9 CLIM POLICY BP 233 EP 248 PY 2003 PD SEP VL 3 IS 3 GA 734DG UT ISI:000186039500005 ER PT J AU Ivey, JL Smithers, J De Loe, RC Kreutzwiser, RD TI Community capacity for adaptation to climate-induced water shortages: Linking institutional complexity and local actors SO ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article C1 Univ Guelph, Dept Geog, Guelph, ON N1G 2W1, Canada. RP Smithers, J, Univ Guelph, Dept Geog, Guelph, ON N1G 2W1, Canada. AB There is growing concern for the capacity of urban and rural communities to manage current water shortages and to prepare for shortages that may accompany predicted changes in climate. In this paper, concepts relating to the notion of climate adaptation and particularly "capacity building" are used to elucidate several determinants of community-level capacity for water management. These concepts and criteria are then used to interpret empirically derived insights relating to local management of water shortages in Ontario, Canada. General determinants of water-related community capacity relate to upper tier political and institutional arrangements; the characteristics of, and relationships among, pertinent agencies, groups, or individuals involved in water management; and the adequacy of financial, human, information, and technical resources. The case analysis illustrates how general factors play out in local experience. The findings point to geographically specific factors that influence the effectiveness of management. Key factors include collaboration between water managers, clarification of agency roles and responsibilities, integration of water management and land-use planning, and recognition and participation of both urban and rural stakeholders, whose sensitivities to water shortages are spatially and temporally variable. CR *CRED VALL CONS, 1997, UNPUB CAL CREEK CRED *CRED VALL CONS, 1998, UNPUB W CRED SUBW ST *CRED VALL CONS, 1999, UNPUB WAT US WORKSH *INT PAN CLIM CHAN, 2001, CLIM CHANG 2001 SYNT *KPMG LLP CHART AC, 2000, FIN STAT CRED VALL C *ONT MIN ENV, 2001, OP CLEAN WAT MUN GRO *ONT MIN MUN AFF H, 1996, MUN FIN INF 1994 QUE *ONT MIN NAT RES, 2001, ONT LOW WAT RESP *PLANN ENG IN LTD, 1999, UNPUB CAL COMM RES S *REIC CONS LTD, 1998, UNPUB TOWN OR WAT EF *TOWN ORG PUB WORK, 2000, UNPUB 1999 MUN WELL ADGER WN, 1999, WORLD DEV, V27, P249 BISWAS AK, 1996, WATER RESOURCES DEV, V12, P399 BURTON I, 1996, ADAPTING CLIMATE CHA, P55 BURTON I, 1998, HDB METHODS CLIMATE CHANG YM, 2001, CREATING SUSTAINABLE, P176 COHEN JM, 1995, INT REV ADM SCI, V61, P407 DELOE R, 2001, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V11, P231 DELOE RC, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P163 DELOE RC, 2002, ENVIRON MANAGE, V29, P217 ETKIN D, 1998, CANADA COUNTRY STUDY, V8, P31 FURUSETH O, 1995, J ENV PLANNING MANAG, V38, P181 GABRIEL AO, 1993, CANADIAN WATER RESOU, V18, P117 GARGAN JJ, 1981, PUBLIC ADMIN REV, V41, P649 GRIGG NS, 1993, J WATER RES PL-ASCE, V119, P531 GRINDLE MS, 1995, PUBLIC ADMIN DEVELOP, V15, P441 HAMDY A, 1998, WATER INT, V23, P126 HOLMES PR, 1996, WATER RESOURES DEV, V12, P461 JOHNSTON RJ, 2000, DICT HUMAN GEOGRAPHY, P976 KELLY PM, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V47, P325 KRAJNC A, 2000, CAN PUBLIC POL, V26, P111 LAVENDER B, 1998, BINATIONAL GREAK LAK, P99 LORENZONI I, 2000, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V10, P145 MERRY DJ, 1995, WATER RESOURCES DEV, V11, P11 MITCHELL B, 1989, APPL GEOGR, V9, P196 MOLOT L, 2001, LIQUID ASSETS MONITO MORTSCH L, 2000, CANADIAN WATER RESOU, V25, P153 MORTSCH LD, 1996, LIMNOL OCEANOGR, V41, P903 NUTTLE WK, 1993, ADAPTATION CLIMATE C OCONNOR DR, 2002, REPORT WALKERTON I 1, P188 SHANAGHAN PE, 1998, J AM WATER WORKS ASS, V90, P51 SHAW DT, 1992, J AM WATER WORKS ASS, V84, P34 SMIT B, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, P876 SMITH JB, 1996, CLIMATE RES, V6, P193 SMITHERS J, 1997, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V7, P129 STRZEPEK KM, 1998, HDB METHODS CLIMATE SUBAK S, 2000, WATER RESOUR MANAG, V14, P137 TOMAN MA, 1996, ADAPTING CLIMATE CHA, P5 WALKER S, 1995, MODELING MANAGEMENT, P107 WEILAND PS, 1998, PUB ADM Q, V22, P176 WHEATEN E, 1999, MITIGATION ADAPTATIO, V4, P215 WILHITE DA, 1996, NAT HAZARDS, V13, P229 WOO CK, 1992, WATER RESOUR RES, V28, P2591 WOO V, 1982, J AM WATER WORKS ASS, V74, P126 NR 54 TC 0 J9 ENVIRON MANAGE BP 36 EP 47 PY 2004 PD JAN VL 33 IS 1 GA 808OJ UT ISI:000220578100004 ER PT J AU Bryant, CR Smit, B Brklacich, M Johnston, TR Smithers, J Chiotti, QP Singh, B TI Adaptation in Canadian agriculture to climatic variability and change SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 Univ Montreal, Montreal, PQ H3C 3J7, Canada. Univ Guelph, Guelph, ON N1G 2W1, Canada. Carleton Univ, Ottawa, ON K1S 5B6, Canada. Univ Lethbridge, Lethbridge, AB T1K 3M4, Canada. Univ Toronto, Inst Environm Studies, Toronto, ON M5S 3E8, Canada. RP Bryant, CR, Univ Montreal, CP 6128,Succursale Ctr Ville, Montreal, PQ H3C 3J7, Canada. AB The effects of climatic variability and change on Canadian agriculture have become an important research field since the early 1980s. In this paper, we seek to synthesize this research, focusing on agricultural adaptation, a purposeful proactive or reactive response to changes associated with climate, and influenced by many factors. A distinctive feature of methods used in research on adaptation in Canadian agriculture is the focus on the important role of human agency. Many individual farmers perceive they are well adapted to climate, because of their extensive 'technological' tool-kit, giving them confidence in dealing with climatic change. In many regions, little concern is expressed over climatic change, except where there are particular types of climatic vulnerability. Farmers respond to biophysical factors, including climate, as they interact with a complex of human factors. Several of these, notably institutional and political ones, have tended to diminish the farm-level risks stemming from climatic variability and change, but may well increase the long term vulnerability of Canadian agriculture. Notwithstanding the technological and management adaptation measures available to producers, Canadian agriculture remains vulnerable to climatic variability and to climate change. CR *INT PAN CLIM CHAN, 1996, IPCC 2 ASS CLIM CHAN ARTHUR LM, 1988, IMPLICATIONS CLIMATE ARTHUR LM, 1988, P S WORKSH IMP CLIM, P187 ARTHUR LM, 1988, W J AGR EC, V13, P216 ARTHUR LM, 1992, PRAIRIE FORUM, V17, P97 BRKLACICH M, 1990, LAND DEGRAD REHABIL, V1, P291 BRKLACICH M, 1992, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V20, P1 BRKLACICH M, 1995, SPECIAL PUBLICATION, V59, P147 BRKLACICH M, 1997, AGR RESTRUCTURING SU, P351 BRKLACICH M, 1998, CANADA COUNTRY STUDY, V7, P219 BRYANT CR, 1992, AGR CITYS COUNTRYSID, P226 BRYANT CR, 1997, CLIMAT, V14, P81 CARTER TR, 1994, IPCC TECHNICAL GUIDE CHIOTTI QP, 1994, WORKSH HELD BANFF AL CHIOTTI QP, 1997, AGR RESTRUCTURING SU, P167 CHIOTTI QP, 1995, J RURAL STUD, V11, P335 EASTERLING WE, 1992, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V59, P53 ELMAAYAR M, 1997, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V85, P193 GLANTZ MH, 1988, SOC RESPONSES REGION GLANTZ MH, 1991, ENVIRONMENT, V33, P10 GRANJON D, 1999, UNPUB ENQUETES RESUL JOHNSTON T, 1998, IN PRESS J AIR WASTE LIVERMAN DM, 1987, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V11, P267 MARSDEN T, 1993, CONSTRUCTING COUNTRY MILIS PF, 1994, ARCTIC, V47, P115 MORTSCH L, 1996, 1 ATM ENV SERV ENV C, P141 PARRY ML, 1989, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V15, P95 RAYNER S, 1998, HUMAN CHOICE CLIMATE, V3 ROSENBERG NJ, 1993, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V24, P7 ROSENZWEIG C, 1994, NATURE, V367, P133 SAVDIE I, 1991, CAN J PLANT SCI, V71, P21 SINGH B, 1991, AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON, V35, P327 SINGH B, 1996, ATMOS OCEAN, V34, P379 SINGH B, 1998, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V38, P51 SMIT B, 1992, CAN GEOGR, V36, P75 SMIT B, 1993, ADAPTATION CLIMATIC SMIT B, 1993, CANADIAN J REGIONAL, V16, P499 SMIT B, 1994, P WORKSH IMPR RESP A, P29 SMIT B, 1996, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V33, P7 SMIT B, 1999, IN PRESS CLIMATIC CH SMIT B, 1997, CAN GEOGR, V42, P429 SMITHERS J, 1997, AGR RESTRUCTURING SU, P167 SMITHERS J, 1997, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V7, P129 STEWART RB, 1983, AGR CAN RES BRANCH C, P29 VIAU AA, 1992, CANADA CLIMATOLOGICA, V26, P79 WHEATON E, 1990, SRC PUBLICATION WHEATON EE, 1990, CAN J AGR ECON, V38, P695 NR 47 TC 6 J9 CLIMATIC CHANGE BP 181 EP 201 PY 2000 PD APR VL 45 IS 1 GA 323WX UT ISI:000087588900011 ER PT J AU Hall, JW Sayers, PB Walkden, MJA Panzeri, I TI Impacts of climate change on coastal flood risk in England and Wales: 2030-2100 SO PHILOSOPHICAL TRANSACTIONS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY A-MATHEMATICAL PHYSICAL AND ENGINEERING SCIENCES LA English DT Article C1 Univ Newcastle Upon Tyne, Sch Civil Engn & Geosci, Newcastle Upon Tyne NE1 7RU, Tyne & Wear, England. HR Wallingford, Wallingford OX10 8BA, Oxon, England. RP Hall, JW, Univ Newcastle Upon Tyne, Sch Civil Engn & Geosci, Cassie Bldg, Newcastle Upon Tyne NE1 7RU, Tyne & Wear, England. AB Coastal flood risk is a function of the probability of coastal flooding and the consequential damage. Scenarios of potential changes in coastal flood risk due to changes in climate, society and the economy over the twenty-first century have been analysed using a national-scale quantified flood risk analysis methodology. If it is assumed that there will be no adaptation to increasing coastal flood risk, the expected annual damage in England and Wales due to coastal flooding is predicted to increase from the current 0.5 pound billion to between 1.0 pound and 13.5 pound billion, depending on the scenario of climate and socio-economic change. The proportion of national flood risk that is attributable to coastal flooding is projected to increase from roughly 50% to between 60 and 70%. Scenarios of adaptation to increasing risk, by construction of coastal dikes or retreat from coastal floodplains, are analysed. These adaptations are shown to be able to reduce coastal flood risk to between 0.2 pound and MS billion. The capital cost of the associated coastal engineering works is estimated to be between 12 pound and 40 pound billion. Nonstructural measures to reduce risk can make a major contribution to reducing the cost and environmental impact of engineering measures. CR *DTI, 2002, DTI PUB *EUR COMM DIR GEN, EUR 2004 LIV COAST E *HALCR GROUP LTD, NAT APPR ASS RISK FL *IPCC, 2000, SPEC REP EM SCEN SRE *SPRU CSERGE CRU, 1999, SOC EC FUT CLIM IMP *UK CLIM IMP PROGR, 2000, SOC EC SCEN CLIM CHA ARNELL NW, 2004, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V14, P3 BACON S, 1991, INT J CLIMATOL, V11, P545 BACON S, 1993, INT J CLIMATOL, V13, P423 BURGESS K, 2004, P 39 DEFR FLOOD COAS, P14 CARRETERO JC, 1998, B AM METEOROL SOC, V79, P741 DEBERNARD J, 2002, CLIMATE RES, V23, P39 EVANS EP, 2004, FORESIGHT FLOOD COAS EVANS EP, 2004, FORESIGHT FLOOD COAS, V1 GULEV SK, 1999, INT J CLIMATOL, V19, P1091 HALL JW, 2003, P I CIVIL ENG-WATER, V156, P235 HARGREAVES JC, 2002, GLOBAL ATMOS OCEAN S, V8, P41 HOLMAN IP, 2005, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V71, P43 HOLMAN IP, 2005, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V71, P9 HULME M, 1998, 1 UKCIP CLIM RES UN HULME M, 2000, UKCIP02 TYND CTR LANGENBERG H, 1999, CONT SHELF RES, V19, P821 LOWE JA, 2001, CLIM DYNAM, V18, P179 PENNINGROWSELL EC, 2003, BENEFITS FLOOD COAST SUTHERLAND J, 2003, P I CIVIL ENG-WATER, V156, P137 TSIMPLIS MN, 2005, PHILOS T ROY SOC A, V363, P1329 VOORTMAN HG, 2003, P 28 INT C CARD UK J, V2, P2373 VRIJLING JK, 2001, RELIAB ENG SYST SAFE, V74, P337 WOOLF DK, 2002, J GEOPHYS RES OCEANS, V107 NR 29 TC 0 J9 PHIL TRANS ROY SOC A-MATH PHY BP 1027 EP 1049 PY 2006 PD APR 15 VL 364 IS 1841 GA 025PJ UT ISI:000236278700018 ER PT J AU Scanlan, SJ TI Food availability and access in lesser-industrialized societies: A test and interpretation of neo-Malthusian and technoecological theories SO SOCIOLOGICAL FORUM LA English DT Article C1 Univ Memphis, Dept Sociol, Memphis, TN 38152 USA. RP Scanlan, SJ, Univ Memphis, Dept Sociol, Clement Hall 231, Memphis, TN 38152 USA. AB Population pressure and human adaptation to food security demands through technology have been a dominant concern of researchers and policymakers alike in international development. This paper examines neo-Malthusian and technoecological determinants of food security in lesser-industrialized societies between 1970 and 1990 using an OLS regression of food security change. Findings reveal that population pressure and overurbanization concerns are indeed valid for food availability, having negative implications, while adaptive measures such as the application of fertilizer technologies, land-use intensification, infrastructural development, and the internationalization of food markets help balance these negative effects. Interestingly, such technological improvements operate net of increased food availability and economic growth. Thus, Green Revolution technologies and the internationalization of global food systems have confronted population pressure in the developing world. However, findings are less conclusive for food access, indicating that improvement in availability does not necessarily translate into meeting distribution needs, thus challenging the ability of these two theories to comprehensively explain the complexities of food security. Questions therefore remain with regard to future food security concerns. CR *COMM WORLD FOOD S, 1996, ROM DECL WORLD FOOD *INT ROAD TRANSP U, 1976, WORLD TRANSP DAT *INT SOIL REF INF, 1991, WORLD MAP STAT HUM I *UN FAO, 1972, FAO YB 1972 PROD *UN FAO, 1982, FAO YB 1982 PROD *UN FAO, 1992, FAO YB 1992 PROD *UN FAO, 1996, 6 WORLD FOOD SURV *UNDP, 1994, HUM DEV REP 1994 *UNFPA, 1999, FOOD FUT WOM POP FOO *UNICEF, 1998, STAT WORLDS CHILDR 1 *WHO, 1985, EN PROT REQ *WORLD BANK, 1994, WORLD DAT 1994 CD RO *WORLD BANK, 1997, WORLD DEV IND CD ROM *WORLD RES I, 1992, WORLD RES 1992 1993 BABU SC, 1994, FOOD POLICY, V19, P211 BARKIN D, 1990, DISTORTED DEV MEXICO BARKIN D, 1990, FOOD CROPS VS FEED C BERRY RA, 1979, AGRARIAN STRUCTURE P BOLLEN KA, 1985, SOCIOL METHOD RES, V13, P510 BONGAARTS J, 1996, POPUL DEV REV, V22, P483 BOSERUP E, 1965, CONDITIONS AGR GROWT BOSERUP E, 1981, POPULATION TECHNOLOG BRADSHAW YW, 1985, STUD COMP INT DEV, V20, P74 BRADSHAW YW, 1987, AM SOCIOL REV, V52, P224 BRADSHAW YW, 1993, SOC FORCES, V71, P629 BREUSCH TS, 1979, ECONOMETRICA, V47, P1287 BROWN L, 1994, FULL HOUSE REASSESSI BROWN LR, 1991, WORLD WATCH, V4, P32 CHEATHAM M, 1994, SEEKING SECURITY DEV, P229 COHEN JE, 1995, MANY PEOPLE CAN EART CRENSHAW EM, 1993, SOC FORCES, V71, P807 CRENSHAW EM, 1997, AM SOCIOL REV, V62, P974 CRENSHAW EM, 1998, COMMUNICATION CROSBY A, 1986, ECOLOGICAL IMPERIALI DEJANVRY A, 1976, BERKELEY J SOCIOL, V21, P3 DEJANVRY A, 1980, SOCIETY, V17, P36 DEJANVRY A, 1989, J PEASANT STUD, V16, P396 DREZE J, 1989, HUNGER PUBLIC ACTION EHRLICH PR, 1990, POPULATION EXPLOSION EHRLICH PR, 1993, POPUL DEV REV, V19, P1 FINKEL SE, 1995, CAUSAL ANAL PANEL DA FIREBAUGH G, 1994, AM SOCIOL REV, V59, P631 FOSTER P, 1992, WORLD FOOD PROBLEM FRIEDMANN H, 1993, NEW LEFT REV, P29 FRIEDMANN H, 1994, GLOBAL RESTRUCTURING, P258 GEREFFI G, 1992, ANNU REV SOCIOL, V18, P419 GRIFFIN K, 1987, WORLD HUNGER WORLD E HARPER C, 1996, ENV SOC HAWLEY A, 1968, INT ENCYCL SOC SCI, P328 HEILIG GK, 1994, POPUL DEV REV, V20, P831 HOMERDIXON T, 1995, POPUL DEV REV, V21, P587 HOMERDIXON T, 1998, ECOVIOLENCE LINKS EN HOMERDIXON T, 1999, ENV SCARCITY VIOLENC JACKMAN RW, 1980, AM J SOCIOL, V86, P604 JENKINS JC, 2001, UNPUB IMPROVING FOOD JUDGE GG, 1985, THEORY PRACTICE ECON KELLY M, 1992, FOOD POLICY, V17, P443 KUTZNER P, 1991, WORLD HUNGER REFEREN LAPPE FM, 1998, WORLD HUNGER 12 MYTH LAY MG, 1992, WAYS WORLD HIST WORL LIPTON M, 1977, WHY POOR PEOPLE STAY MACRAE J, 1994, WAR HUNGER MAXWELL S, 1996, FOOD POLICY, V21, P155 MCCLENDON MJ, 1994, MULTIPLE REGRESSION MCMICHAEL P, 1994, GLOBAL RESTRUCTURING, P1 MCMICHAEL P, 1996, DEV SOCIAL CHANGE MEADOWS DH, 1992, LIMITS CONFRONTING G MICKLIN M, 1984, SOCIOLOGICAL HUMAN E NOLAN PD, 1985, SOC FORCES, V64, P341 OPHULS W, 1992, ECOLOGY POLITICS SCA QUINN VJ, 1994, FOOD POLICY, V19, P234 REUTLINGER S, 1986, POVERTY HUNGER ISSUE SAHN DE, 1984, METHODS EVALUATION I SCANLAN SJ, 2001, INT STUDIES Q SEN AK, 1981, POVERTY FAMINES ESSA, V1, P1 SEN AK, 1995, POLITICAL EC HUNGER, P50 SIMON JL, 1981, ULTIMATE RESOURCE SIMON JL, 1990, POPULATION MATTERS P SMIL V, 1991, POPUL DEV REV, V17, P569 SMIL V, 1994, POPUL DEV REV, V20, P255 SUMMERS R, 1991, Q J ECON, V106, P327 TWEETEN LG, 1997, PROMOTING 3 WORLD DE TWEETEN LG, 1997, PROMOTING 3 WORLD DE, P225 WATTS MJ, 1983, SILENT VIOLENCE WIMBERLEY DW, 1992, SOC FORCES, V70, P895 NR 85 TC 1 J9 SOCIOL FORUM BP 231 EP 262 PY 2001 PD JUN VL 16 IS 2 GA 467AT UT ISI:000170678900003 ER PT J AU Dessai, S Hulme, M TI Assessing the robustness of adaptation decisions to climate change uncertainties: A case study on water resources management in the East of England SO GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS LA English DT Article C1 Univ E Anglia, Sch Environm Sci, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. Tyndall Ctr Climate Change Res, Norwich, Norfolk, England. RP Dessai, S, Univ E Anglia, Sch Environm Sci, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. AB Projections of future climate change are plagued with uncertainties, causing difficulties for planners taking decisions on adaptation measures. This paper presents an assessment framework that allows the identification of adaptation strategies that are robust (i.e. insensitive) to climate change uncertainties. The framework is applied to a case study of water resources management in the East of England, more specifically to the Anglian Water Services' 25 year Water Resource Plan (WRP). The paper presents a local sensitivity analysis (a 'one-at-a-time' experiment) of the various elements of the modelling framework (e.g., emissions of greenhouse gases, climate sensitivity and global climate models) in order to determine whether or not a decision to adapt to climate change is sensitive to uncertainty in those elements. Water resources are found to be sensitive to uncertainties in regional climate response (from general circulation models and dynamical downscaling), in climate sensitivity and in climate impacts. Aerosol forcing and greenhouse gas emissions uncertainties are also important, whereas uncertainties from ocean mixing and the carbon cycle are not. Despite these large uncertainties, Anglian Water Services' WRP remains robust to the climate change uncertainties sampled because of the adaptation options being considered (e.g. extension of water treatment works), because the climate model used for their planning (HadCM3) predicts drier conditions than other models, and because 'one-at-a-time' experiments do not sample the combination of different extremes in the uncertainty range of parameters. This research raises the question of how much certainty is required in climate change projections to justify investment in adaptation measures, and whether such certainty can be delivered. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *AWS LTD, 2004, WAT RES PLAN *COMM EUR COMM, 2005, WINN BATTL GLOB CLIM *EA, 2001, WAT RES FUT STRAT AN *EA, 2003, WAT RES PLANN GUID V *EA, 2004, MAINT WAT SUPPL ENV *EERA SDRT, 2004, LIV CLIM CHANG E ENG MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 *UKWIR LTD, 2003, 03CL0402 UKWIR LTD ADGER WN, 2005, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V15, P77 ALEXANDER LV, 2001, ATMOSPHERIC SCI LETT, V1 ANDRONOVA NG, 2001, J GEOPHYS RES-ATMOS, V106, P22605 ARNELL NW, 2003, J HYDROL, V270, P195 ARNELL NW, 2004, UNPUB EVIDENCE TYNDA ARNELL NW, 2004, WATER ENVIRON J, V18, P112 ARNELL NW, 2006, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V78, P227 BANKES S, 1993, OPER RES, V41, P435 CALDEIRA K, 2003, SCIENCE, V299, P2052 CAMPOLONGO F, 2000, SENSITIVITY ANAL, P65 CARNELL J, 1999, J CHART INST WATER E, V13, P413 CARTER TR, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, P145 CASMAN EA, 1999, RISK ANAL, V19, P33 DESSAI S, 2005, THESIS U E ANGLIA NO FOREST CE, 2002, SCIENCE, V295, P113 FUNTOWICZ SO, 1990, UNCERTAINTY QUALITY GOODMAN D, 2002, HUM ECOL RISK ASSESS, V8, P177 HELTON JC, 1996, RELIAB ENG SYST SAFE, V54, P91 HELTON JC, 2002, RISK ANAL, V22, P591 HEWITT GD, 2004, EOS, V85, P566 HOBBS BF, 1997, J ENVIRON MANAGE, V49, P53 HOBBS BJ, 1997, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V37, P177 HULME M, 2002, CLIMATE CHANGE SCENA JONES RN, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P403 JONES RN, 2001, INTEGRATING MODELS N JONES RN, 2001, NAT HAZARDS, V23, P197 KAHNEMAN D, 1982, JUDGEMENT UNCERTAINT KNIGHT F, 1922, RISK UNCERTAINTY PRO KNUTTI R, 2002, NATURE, V416, P719 LEMPERT RJ, 1996, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V33, P235 LEMPERT RJ, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P387 LEMPERT RJ, 2003, SHAPING NEXT 100 YEA LEMPERT RJ, 2006, MANAGE SCI, V52, P514 MITCHELL JFB, 1999, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V41, P547 MITCHELL TD, 2003, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V60, P217 MORGAN MG, 1990, UNCERTAINTY GUIDE DE MORITA T, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, P115 MURPHY JM, 2004, NATURE, V430, P768 NAKICENOVIC N, 2000, EMISSIONS SCENARIOS REGAN HM, 2005, ECOL APPL, V15, P1471 RISBEY JS, 1998, WATER POLICY, V1, P321 SANTER BD, 1990, 47 M PLANCK I MET SHERIFF JD, 1996, J CHART INST WATER E, V10, P160 STAINFORTH DA, 2005, NATURE, V433, P405 STEWART TR, 2000, PREDICTION SCI DECIS, P41 VANASSELT MBA, 2000, PERSPECTIVES UNCERTA VANDERSLUIJS JP, 2003, NWSE2003163 CORP I R VANDERSLUIJS JP, 2004, NWSE200437 CORP I RI VANLENTHE J, 1997, RISK DECISION POLICY, V2, P213 VISSER H, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P421 WALKER WE, 2003, INTEGRATED ASSESSMEN, V4, P5 WIGLEY TML, 1992, NATURE, V357, P293 WIGLEY TML, 1995, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V22, P2749 WIGLEY TML, 2001, SCIENCE, V293, P451 WILBY RL, 2005, HYDROL PROCESS, V19, P3201 WINKLER RL, 1996, RELIAB ENG SYST SAFE, V54, P127 YOHE GW, 2004, SCIENCE, V306, P416 YOHE GW, 1991, POLICY SCI, V24, P245 NR 66 TC 0 J9 GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANGE BP 59 EP 72 PY 2007 PD FEB VL 17 IS 1 GA 149YG UT ISI:000245182200008 ER PT J AU Abler, DG Shortle, J Rose, A Oladosu, G TI Characterizing regional economic impacts and responses to climate change SO GLOBAL AND PLANETARY CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 Penn State Univ, University Pk, PA 16802 USA. RP Abler, DG, Penn State Univ, 207 Armsby Bldg, University Pk, PA 16802 USA. AB While much progress has been made in recent years in modeling the impacts of greenhouse gases on global climate and impacts of global climate change on regional climates, much less progress has been made in modeling economic impacts and responses to climate change, particularly at a regional level. This lack of progress is due, in large part, to the fact that there is no generally accepted framework for characterizing the regional economic impacts of, and responses to, climate change. The objective of this paper is to make a start at such a framework. We divide economic impacts at a regional level into four broad categories: direct impacts on production of market goods and services; direct impacts on production of nonmarket goods and services; indirect impacts on other economic sectors within the region; and indirect impacts operating through other regions and countries. We go on to consider two modeling frameworks for responses to climate change: static, in which regional capital stocks, technologies, and public and private institutions are exogenous; and dynamic, in which these variables are endogenous. Dynamic responses in capital stocks, technologies, and institutions are likely to be the most important adaptations to climate change and its effects on ecosystems, but also the least well understood at the present time. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. CR WATSON RT, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, V1, P1 *STANF EN MOD FOR, 1997, EMF 14 WORKSH SYNTH ABLER DG, 1998, AM ASS ADV SCI ANN M BERZ GA, 1998, COST BENEFIT ANAL CL, P41 CHAKRAVORTY U, 1997, J POLIT ECON, V105, P1201 COSTANZA R, 1997, NATURE, V387, P253 CRANE RG, 1998, INT J CLIMATOL, V18, P65 DALTON MG, 1997, J ENVIRON ECON MANAG, V33, P221 EASTERLING WE, 1993, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V24, P23 EASTERLING WE, 1997, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V7, P337 FREEMAN MA, 1993, MEASUREMENT ENV RESO GASKINS D, 1993, REDUCING CARBON EMIS HAYAMI Y, 1985, AGR DEV INT PERSPECT ISARD W, 1975, INTRO REGIONAL SCI JENKINS GS, 1997, GLOBAL PLANET CHANGE, V15, P3 JORGENSON DW, 1993, RESOUR ENERGY ECON, V15, P7 KAMAT R, 1998, IN PRESS ENERGY EC KARSHENAS M, 1995, HDB EC INNOVATION TE, P265 KOLSTAD CD, 1996, J ENVIRON ECON MANAG, V31, P1 LEMPERT RJ, 1996, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V33, P235 LEWANDROWSKI JK, 1993, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V23, P1 METCALFE JS, 1997, EC STRUCTURAL TECHNO, P123 MOE T, 1997, PERSPECTIVES PUBLIC, P455 NORDHAUS WD, 1994, MANAGING GLOBAL COMM NORDHAUS WD, 1996, AM ECON REV, V86, P741 NORTH DC, 1990, I I CHANGE EC PERFOR OLSON M, 1982, RISE DECLINE NATIONS PEARCE D, 1995, HDB ENV EC, P166 POLENSKE K, 1990, US MULTIREGIONAL INP ROSE A, 1993, INTEGRATED IMPACT AS ROSE A, 1996, GLOBAL PLANET CHANGE, V11, P201 RUTTAN VW, 1992, 12 MAC COLL RUTTAN VW, 1997, ECON J, V107, P1520 SCHIMMELPFENNIG D, 1996, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V33, P213 SMITH VK, 1997, INT YB ENV RESOURCE, P156 SOLOW R, 1992, PRACTICAL STEP SUSTA STIGLER GJ, 1988, CHICAGO STUDIES POLI TOL RSJ, 1998, ENERG POLICY, V26, P257 TOL RSJ, 1998, ENVIRON MODEL ASSESS, V3, P63 TOL RSJ, 1998, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V8, P109 TOMAN MA, 1998, ENVIRON RESOUR ECON, V11, P603 TOMAN MA, 1995, HDB ENV EC, P139 ULPH A, 1997, ECON J, V107, P636 WOODWARD RT, 1997, LAND ECON, V73, P492 YOHE GW, 1998, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V38, P447 NR 45 TC 2 J9 GLOBAL PLANET CHANGE BP 67 EP 81 PY 2000 PD JUL VL 25 IS 1-2 GA 336ZU UT ISI:000088333500006 ER PT J AU Montagu, S TI GIS and natural resource planning in Papua New Guinea: a contextual analysis SO ENVIRONMENT AND PLANNING B-PLANNING & DESIGN LA English DT Article C1 Miami Univ, Dept Geog, Oxford, OH 45056 USA. RP Montagu, S, Miami Univ, Dept Geog, Oxford, OH 45056 USA. AB With the maturation of GIS technology, several planning scholars have turned their attention to the nature of the relationship between GIS technology and its 'fit' into the planning process. Drawing various insights from the diverse fields of information systems, management information systems, and organizational theory, these scholars have started to assemble a theoretical framework from which to understand and manage the integration of GIS into the workplace. In this paper I will draw on these initial efforts to evaluate the relationship between 'technology' and 'process' in a Third World context. Using Nedovic-Budic's conceptualization of the process of 'mutual adaptation' as a conceptual starting point, I will provide an in-depth analysis of GIS implementation in the southwest pacific nation of Papua New Guinea (PNG). PNG's experiences offer a unique insight into the dynamics of mutual adaptation and also point out the limitations of this concept. I conclude by extrapolating beyond the 'particular localisms' of PNG to find that the broader political economy of the planning environment dictates the success of GIS integration. Moreover it also suggests that managing the phases of mutual adaptation in an effort to promote GIS implementation is only likely to succeed in circumstances where the broader political economy of planning is in itself conducive to the long-term integration needs of GIS. CR *GREENP PAC, 1998, SUST PAP NEW GUIN NA *PAP NEW GUIN FOR, 1996, NAT FOR PLAN MAY 199 ALANKARY KM, 1991, INT J GEOGR INF SYST, V5, P85 BASHER LR, 1995, HDB LAND RESOURCE SU BELLAMY JA, 1995, 6 PNGRIS AIDAB BROWN MM, 1997, STATE LOCAL GOVERNME, V28, P193 BUDIC ZD, 1993, J URBAN REGIONAL INF, V5, P4 BUDIC ZD, 1994, COMPUT ENVIRON URBAN, V18, P285 BUDIC ZD, 1994, J AM PLANN ASSOC, V60, P244 BURROUGH PA, 1992, NEDERLANDSE GEOGRAFI, V152, P17 CAMPBELL H, 1994, INT J GEOGR INF SYST, V8, P309 CAMPBELL H, 1995, GIS ORG CARTWRIGHT TJ, 1993, DIFFUSION USE GEOGRA, P261 CHRISMAN N, 1997, EXLORING GEOGRAPHIC CHRISTIAN CS, 1968, AERIAL SURVEYS INTEG, P233 COWEN DJ, 1990, INTRO READINGS GEOGR, P52 DEATH C, 1980, MONOGRAPH I APPL SOC, V13 DOWNS I, 1980, AUSTR TRUSTEESHIP PA EYRE LA, 1989, INT J GEOGR INF SYST, V3, P363 FILER C, 1998, POLICY WORKS FORESTS FOX JM, 1991, INT J GEOGR INF SYST, V5, P59 HARRIS B, 1990, REGIONAL DEV DIALOGU, V11, P17 HASTINGS DA, 1991, INT J GEOGR INF SYST, V5, P29 HOLZKNECHT H, 1994, UNPUB INTRO INCORPOR HUXHOLD W, 1993, DIFFUSION USE GEOGRA, P61 INNES JE, 1993, J AM PLANN ASSOC, V59, P230 KEIG G, 1987, HUON SEM LAE PNG SEP KEIG G, 1988, URPIS 16 INF SYST AC, P24 MABBUTT JA, 1968, LAND EVALUATION, P11 MASSER I, 1997, GEOGRAPHIC INFORMATI, P95 MCALPINE JR, 1989, INT S LOW COST LIS S MILLER S, 1994, PAPUA NEW GUINEA COU MONTAGU A, 1995, DP1 PNGRIS AIDAB ACT MONTAGU AS, 1997, THESIS U ILLINOIS UR MOORE GC, 1993, DIFFUSION USE GEOGRA, P77 NEDOVICBUDIC Z, 1997, GEOGRAPHIC INFORMATI, P165 NEDOVICBUDIC Z, 1998, ENVIRON PLANN B, V25, P681 PRINCE JR, 1969, SCI CONCEPTS PACIFIC SIMPSON G, 1997, MONOGRAPH NATL RES I, V32, P17 SWARTZENDRUBER JF, 1994, PAPUA NEW GUINEA CON TAYLOR DRF, 1991, GEOGRAPHIC INFORMATI, V1, P71 WIGGINS LL, 1993, DIFFUSION USE GEOGRA, P147 YEH AG, 1991, INT J GEOGR INF SYST, V5, P5 NR 43 TC 0 J9 ENVIRON PLAN B-PLAN DESIGN BP 183 EP 196 PY 2000 PD MAR VL 27 IS 2 GA 298KZ UT ISI:000086139400004 ER PT J AU Faisal, IM Parveen, S TI Food security in the face of climate change, population growth, and resource constraints: Implications for Bangladesh SO ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article C1 Presidency Univ, Dhaka 1213, Bangladesh. N South Univ, Dhaka 1213, Bangladesh. RP Faisal, IM, Presidency Univ, Tower Bldg 11A,Rd 92,Gulshan 2, Dhaka 1213, Bangladesh. AB Ensuring food security has been one of the major national priorities of Bangladesh since its independence in 1971. Now, this national priority is facing new challenges from the possible impacts of climate change in addition to the already existing threats from rapid population growth, declining availability of cultivable land, and inadequate access to water in the dry season. In this backdrop, this paper has examined the nature and magnitude of these threats for the benchmark years of 2030 and 2050. It has been shown that the overall impact of climate change on the production of food grains in Bangladesh would probably be small in 2030. This is due to the strong positive impact of CO2 fertilization that would compensate for the negative impacts of higher temperature and sea level rise. In 2050, the negative impacts of climate change might become noticeable: production of rice and wheat might drop by 8% and 32%, respectively. However, rice would be less affected by climate change compared to wheat, which is more sensitive to a change in temperature. Based on the population projections and analysis of future agronomic innovations, this study further shows that the availability of cultivable land alone would not be a constraint for achieving food self-sufficiency, provided that the productivity of rice and wheat grows at a rate of 10% or more per decade. However, the situation would be more critical in terms of water availability. If the dry season water availability does not decline from the 1990 level of about 100 Bm(3), there would be just enough water in 2030 for meeting both the agricultural and nonagricultural needs. In 2050, the demand for irrigation water to maintain food self-sufficiency would be about 40% to 50% of the dry season water availability. Meeting such a high agricultural water demand might cause significant negative impacts on the domestic and commercial water supply, fisheries, ecosystems, navigation, and salinity management. CR *BBS, 2001, POP CENS 2001 PREL R *BBS, 2001, STAT YEAR BOOK BANG *BBS, 2001, YB AGR STAT BANGL *BBS, 2002, STAT POCK BOOK BANGL MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 *IUCN, 2002, IMP CLIM VAR AGR SEC *MOA, 2001, HDB AGR STAT *MPO, 1991, NAT WAT MAN PLAN *WARPO, 2001, IN PRESS NAT WAT MAN, V1 *WB, 2000, BANGL CLIM CHANG SUS ACOCK B, 1993, INT CROP SCI, V1, P299 AHMED A, 2002, AGR SECTOR VULNERABI AHMED AU, 1998, VULNERABILITY ADAPTA, P13 ASADUZZAMAN M, 1997, GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANG BOYCE JK, 1987, AGRARIAN IMPASSE BEN BRAMMER H, 1990, GEOGR J, V156, P12 BRAMMER H, 1990, GEOGR J, V156, P158 DOORENBOS J, 1977, 24 FAO DOROSH PA, 2002, C EC REF FOOD SEC RO EMERY KO, 1991, SEA LEVELS LAND LEVE GABLE FJ, 1990, ENVIRON MANAGE, V14, P33 HABIBULLAH M, 1998, VULNERABILITY ADAPTA, P55 KARIM Z, 1982, NET IRRIGATION REQUI KARIM Z, 1996, WATER AIR SOIL POLL, V92, P53 KARIM Z, 1999, VULNERABILITY ADAPTA, P29 KHAN HR, 2003, WATER RESOURCES DEV, P16 MAHMOOD R, 1995, PHYS GEOGR, V16, P463 ROTTER R, 2000, CLIMATE CHANGE EFFEC, P651 SEN AK, 1976, FAMINES FOOD AVABILA SEN AK, 1981, POVERTY FAMINES ESSA, V1, P1 SEN AK, 1987, HUNGER ENTITLEMENTS SEN AK, 1991, INTERDISCIPLINARY SC, V16, P324 TURNER BL, 1996, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V93, P14984 ZISKA LH, 1997, AGRONOMY J NR 34 TC 0 J9 ENVIRON MANAGE BP 487 EP 498 PY 2004 PD OCT VL 34 IS 4 GA 880WR UT ISI:000225821200004 ER PT J AU McGoodwin, JR TI Effects of climatic variability on three fishing economies in high-latitude regions: Implications for fisheries policies SO MARINE POLICY LA English DT Article C1 Univ Colorado, Dept Anthropol, Boulder, CO 80309 USA. RP McGoodwin, JR, Univ Colorado, Dept Anthropol, 233 UCB, Boulder, CO 80309 USA. AB Research exploring how climatic variability impacts fishing economies in high-latitude regions was conducted in south-central Iceland and southwest Alaska during 2001-2004. Important differences were found regarding the economic impacts of climatic variations in the commercial economies in Iceland and Alaska, versus in the native subsistence economies in Alaska. In general, the commercially inclined economies in both regions seemed less resilient to ordinary climatic variability. Moreover, both of the commercial economies were importantly influenced by fluctuations in global fish markets that are prompted by climatic variations occurring in regions that are geographically very distant from them. A better understanding of how climatic variability affects fishing economies in high-latitude regions will help in the development of more sustainable fisheries policies for these regions, which may already be experiencing radical climatic and ecological change. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR 2001, GLOBAL WARMING NEWS 2004, IMPACTS WARMING ARCT *NAT RES COUNC, 2001, CLIM CHANG SCI AN SO ARNASON R, 1995, N ATLANTIC FISHERIES, P237 BARKER JH, 1993, ALWAYS GETTING READY BELKIN IM, 1998, PROG OCEANOGR, V41, P1 DICKSON RR, 1988, PROGR OCEANOGR, V20, P103 DURRENBERGER EP, 1989, ANTHRO ICELAND FIENUPRIORDAN A, 2000, HUNTING TRADITION CH HAMILTON LC, 2004, ARCTIC, V57, P325 HOUGHTON JT, 2001, IPCC 3 ASSESSMENT RE JOLLES CZ, 2002, FAITH FOOD FAMILY YU JONSSON S, 1995, N ATLANTIC FISHERIES, P267 JOSEPH DS, 1997, BEND KAWAGLEY AO, 1995, YUPIAQ WORLDVIEW PAT MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 MCGOODWIN JR, 1990, CRISIS WORLDS FISHER MEAD R, 2001, ICELAND METZ B, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 PALSSON G, 1991, COASTAL EC CULTURAL PALSSON G, 1995, ECOLOGICAL EC, V24, P275 PALSSON G, 1998, ECOL ECON, V24, P275 SERVICE ER, 1971, PRIMITIVE SOCIAL ORG VANSTONE JW, 1984, HDB N AM INDIANS, V5, P205 VANSTONE JW, 1984, HDB N AM INDIANS, V5, P224 NR 25 TC 0 J9 MAR POLICY BP 40 EP 55 PY 2007 PD JAN VL 31 IS 1 GA 095KN UT ISI:000241306700005 ER PT J AU MUNN, RE TI TOWARDS SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT (REPRINTED FROM PROC SYMP MANAGING ENVIRONMENTAL-STRESS, PG 11-19, 1990) SO ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT PART A-GENERAL TOPICS LA English DT Reprint RP MUNN, RE, UNIV TORONTO,INST ENVIRONM STUDIES,TORONTO M5S 1A4,ONTARIO,CANADA. AB Sustainable development is a difficult phrase to define, particularly in the context of human ecosystems. Questions have to be asked, such as "Sustainable for whom?" "Sustainable for what purposes?" "Sustainable at the subsistence or at the luxury level?" and "Sustainable under what conditions?" In this paper, development is taken to mean improving the quality of life. (If development were to mean growth, then it could not be sustained over the long term.) Studies of development must, of course, consider economic factors, particularly in the case of societies who suffer from the pollution of poverty. However, cultural and environmental factors are equally important. In fact, development is not sustainable over the long term if it is not ecologically sustainable. The terms maximum sustainable yield of a renewable resource, carrying capacity of a region and assimilative capacity of a watershed or airshed are discussed. Approaches using these resource management tools are recommended when external conditions are not changing very much. The problem today is that unprecedented rates of change are expected in the next century, not only of environmental conditions such as climate but also of socioeconomic conditions such as renewable resource consumption and populations (of both people and of automobiles)! In rapidly changing situations, policies must be adopted that strengthen resilience and ecosystem integrity; that is, society must increase its ability to adapt. Maintaining the status quo is a long-term prescription for disaster. The problem is of course that little is known about how to design strategies that will increase resilience and ecosystem integrity, and this area of research needs to be strengthened. Some suggestions on appropriate indicators of ecosystem integrity are given in the paper but these need considerable refinement. One of the main problems with long-term environmental policy formulation is the uncertainty to be expected, including the possibility that complete surprises will occur, as the time horizon moves forward. Research programmes will of course reduce the uncertainty but will never eliminate it. There is therefore an urgent need to improve current methods of environmental policy formulation, which avoid foreclosing of options and permit continuous review and adaptation of policies. The Canadian round-table approach is mentioned, as well as the policy-exercise approach developed at IIASA (the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis). CR 1980, WORLD CONSERVATION S 1987, OUR COMMON FUTURE 1989, SUSTAINABLE DEV, V10, P1 1990, IGBP12 SWED ACAD SCI ARCHIBUGI F, 1989, EC ECOLOGY SUSTAINAB CARSON R, 1987, SILENT SPRING CHRISTIE WJ, 1990, UNPUB PERSPECTIVE AP CLARK WC, 1985, WP8543 INT I APPL SY CLARK WC, 1986, SUSTAINABLE DEV BIOS COULTER J, 1989, 4 EC C AUSTR COULTER J, 1989, EC GROWTH ENV SUSTAI FRIEND A, 1990, UNPUB EVOLUTION INFO HOLLING CS, 1973, ANNUAL REV ECOLOGY S, V4, P1 HOLLING CS, 1986, SUSTAINABLE DEV BIOS, V1, P1 KEYFITZ N, 1989, WP8927 INT I APPL SY MUNN RE, 1990, P S MANAGING ENV STR, P11 MUNN RE, 1991, P C SUSTAINABLE POLI, V108, P163 MUNN RE, 1992, P WORKSHOP ECOLOGICA ODEN S, 1968, ECOLOGY COMMITTEE B, V1 PEARCE D, 1989, BLUEPRINT GREEN EC PEARCE E, 1989, NEW STATESMAN SOC, V2, P17 PEZZEY J, 1989, 15 WORLD BANK ENV DE RAPPORT DJ, 1989, PERSPECT BIOL MED, V33, P120 REGIER HA, 1989, UNPUB AUG COUCH C REPETTO R, 1989, WASTING ASSETS NATUR RIND D, 1988, NATURE, V334, P483 STIGLIANI WM, 1989, SCI TOTAL ENVIRON, V80, P1 TOTH FL, 1988, SIMULATION GAMES, V19, P235 VICTOR PA, 1991, EC ECOLOGICAL DECISI WARD B, 1972, ONLY ONE EARTH NR 30 TC 4 J9 ATMOS ENVIRON PT A-GEN TOP BP 2725 EP 2731 PY 1992 PD OCT VL 26 IS 15 GA JT894 UT ISI:A1992JT89400007 ER PT J AU Sivakumar, MVK Gommes, R Baier, W TI Agrometeorology and sustainable agriculture SO AGRICULTURAL AND FOREST METEOROLOGY LA English DT Article C1 World Meteorol Org, CH-1211 Geneva 2, Switzerland. Agr & Agri Food Canada, Res Branch, Ottawa, ON K1A 0C6, Canada. RP Sivakumar, MVK, World Meteorol Org, 7bis Ave Paix, CH-1211 Geneva 2, Switzerland. AB Current concerns with the sustainability of agroecosystems in different parts of the world have hightened the awareness for careful use of the natural resource base on which agriculture depends. For proper and efficient use of soils and plant/animal genetic material, knowledge of the role of climate is an essential precondition. Several elements of the chapters in Agenda 21, a global plan of action agreed at the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development (UNCED), require the attention of the agrometeorologists and these have been reviewed. Three International Conventions which have a bearing on sustainable agriculture including the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCC), the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) and the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) were negotiated and ratified since 1992. The World Food Summit Plan of Action (WFSPA), which was developed in 1996, includes several commitments to make agricultural production sustainable. Agrometeorological aspects of these three Conventions and the WFSPA were reviewed. Some of the priorities for agrometeorologists to address sustainable agriculture in the 21st Century were discussed. These include improvement and strengthening of agrometeorological networks, development of new sources of data for operational agrometeorology, improved understanding of natural climate variability, promotion and use of seasonal to inter-annual climate forecasts, establishment and/or strengthening of early warning and monitoring systems and promotion of geographical information systems and remote sensing applications and agroecological zoning for sustainable management of farming systems, forestry and livestock. Other priorities include use of improved methods, procedures and techniques for the dissemination of agrometeorological information, development of agrometeorological adaptation strategies to climate variability and climate change, mitigation of the effects of climate change, more active applications of models for phenology, yield forecasting etc.,active promotion of tactical applications such as response farming at the field level and promoting a better understanding of the interactions between climate and biological diversity. These present important challenges and great opportunities for agrometeorologists to play a proactive role in promoting sustainable development in the 21st Century. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. CR *ASA, 1989, DEC REACH SUST AGR, P15 *BIFAD, 1988, ENV NAT RES STRAT SU *CGIAR TAC, 1988, SUST AGR PROD IMPL I *NRC, 1991, SUST PLAN COLL RES A *ROM FOR, 1986, SUST FOOD NUTR SEC R *WCED, 1987, OUR COMM FUT *WCMC, 1992, GLOB BIOD STAT WORLD BAIER W, 1990, P INT S NAT RES MAN, P90 BERNARD EA, 1992, INTENSIFICATION PROD BOOTE KJ, 1996, AGRON J, V88, P704 CONWAY GR, 1985, AGROECOSYSTEM ANAL A, V20, P1 DAVIS TJ, 1987, P 7 AGR SECT S WORLD DOVER M, 1987, FEED EARTH AGRO ECOL FRANCIS CA, 1988, AM J ALTERNATIVE AGR, V3, P123 FRANCIS CA, 1990, J SUSTAIN AGR, V1, P97 GOMMES R, 1998, MID TERM M CONS GROU KNEZEK BD, 1988, NATL FORUM, V68, P10 LAL R, 1991, J SUSTAIN AGR, V1, P67 LASERRE P, 1992, IUBS MONOGRAPH, V8, P105 LYNAM JK, 1988, CIP ROCK FDN C FARM MACDONALD IAW, 1992, IUBS MONOGRAPH, V8, P196 MCCRACKEN JA, 1990, GATEKEEPER SERIES SA, V6 OKIGBO BN, 1991, DEV SUSTAINABLE AGR RIEBSAME WE, 1995, CLIMATE CHANGES INT, P57 RIJKS D, 1991, INT SCI FDN CTR TECH RODALE R, 1988, NATL FORUM, V68, P2 RUTTAN VW, 1989, SUSTAINABILITY NOT E, P6 SENANAYAKE R, 1991, J SUSTAIN AGR, V1, P7 SOLBRIG OT, 1992, IUBS MONOGRAPH, V8 SOLBRIG OT, 1992, IUBS MONOGRAPH, V8, P13 SOMBROEK WG, 1996, GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANG, P1 STEWART BA, 1989, WORKSH MECH PROD SUS SWINDALE LD, 1988, AGR DEV ENV POINT VI, P7 THOMAS GW, 1988, CHALLENGES DRYLAND A, P27 TILMAN D, 1997, SCIENCE, V278, P1865 NR 35 TC 4 J9 AGR FOREST METEOROL BP 11 EP 26 PY 2000 PD JUN 1 VL 103 IS 1-2 GA 322VP UT ISI:000087530200004 ER PT B AU Watson, RT Zinyoera, MC Moss, RH TI Climate Change 1995: Impacts, Adaptations, and Mitigation of Climate Change: scientific-technical analyses SO LA English DT Book C1 Office of Science and Technology Policy, Executive Office of the President Zimbabwe Meteorological Services National Laboratory, Battelle Pacific Northwest RP AB This comprehensive volume provides a roadmap for navigating the sometimes divisive public debate about the consequences of climate change. It reviews what is known, unknown, uncertain and controversial about the potential impacts of climate change and finds that: the composition and geographic distribution of many ecosystems will shift; some regions, especially in the tropics and subtropics, may suffer significantly adverse consequences for food security, even though the effects of climate change on global food production may prove small to moderate; there could be an increase in a wide range of human diseases, including mortality, and illnes due to heat waves and extreme weather events, extensions in the potential transmission of vector-borne diseases, such as malaria, and regional declines in nutritional status; some countries will face threats to sustainable development from losses of human habitat due to sea-level rise, reductions in water quality and quantity, and disruptions from extreme events; technological advances have increased the range of adaptation and mitigation options, and offer exciting opportunities for reducing emissions, but are not currently available in all regions of the world. CR DOWNING TE, 1992, CLIMATE CHANGE VULNE EASTERLING WE, 1993, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V24, P23 NR 2 TC 0 BP 1 EP 878 PY 1996 VL 1 ER PT J AU Osborn, AJ TI Cattle, co-wives, children, and calabashes: Material context for symbol use among the Il Chamus of west-central Kenya SO JOURNAL OF ANTHROPOLOGICAL ARCHAEOLOGY LA English DT Review RP Osborn, AJ, UNIV NEBRASKA,DEPT ANTHROPOL,LINCOLN,NE 68588. 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1981, HUNTER GATHERER FORA WOBST HM, 1977, 61 U MICH MUS ANTHR YAGIL R, 1988, ARID LANDS TODAY TOM, P373 YENGOYAN AA, 1968, MAN HUNTER, P185 YENGOYAN AA, 1972, OCEANIA, V43, P85 YENGOYAN AA, 1975, AUSTR ABORIGINAL ANT, P70 ZIMAN J, 1978, RELIABLE KNOWLEDGE E NR 130 TC 0 J9 J ANTHROPOL ARCHAEOL BP 107 EP 136 PY 1996 PD JUN VL 15 IS 2 GA UR616 UT ISI:A1996UR61600001 ER PT J AU Janssen, MA Schoon, ML Ke, WM Borner, K TI Scholarly networks on resilience, vulnerability and adaptation within the human dimensions of global environmental change SO GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS LA English DT Article C1 Arizona State Univ, Sch Human Evolut & Social Change, Tempe, AZ 85287 USA. Arizona State Univ, Dept Comp Sci & Engn, Tempe, AZ 85287 USA. Indiana Univ, Workshop Polit Theory & Policy Anal, Bloomington, IN 47405 USA. Indiana Univ, Sch Publ & Environm Affairs, Bloomington, IN 47405 USA. Indiana Univ, Sch Lib & Environm Sci, Bloomington, IN 47405 USA. RP Janssen, MA, Arizona State Univ, Sch Human Evolut & Social Change, Box 872402, Tempe, AZ 85287 USA. AB This paper presents the results of a bibliometric analysis of the knowledge domains resilience, vulnerability and adaptation within the research activities on human dimensions of global environmental change. We analyzed how 2286 publications between 1967 and 2005 are related in terms of co-authorship relations, and citation relations. The number of publications in the three knowledge domains increased rapidly between 1995 and 2005. However, the resilience knowledge domain is only weakly connected with the other two domains in terms of co-authorships and citations. The resilience knowledge domain has a background in ecology and mathematics with a focus on theoretical models, while the vulnerability and adaptation knowledge domains have a background in geography and natural hazards research with a focus on case studies and climate change research. There is an increasing number of cross citations and papers classified in multiple knowledge domains. This seems to indicate an increasing integration of the different knowledge domains. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 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RP Iyer-Raniga, U, Deakin Univ, Sch Architecture & Bldg, Waterfront Campus, Geelong, Vic 3217, Australia. AB The relevant literature is abound with different definitions for sustainability, but the most meaningful definition is set within an evolutionary framework. Mechanistic and evolutionary frameworks for sustainable development are discussed. Evolution and adaptation are characteristics of complex adaptive systems, and a new understanding of sustainable development can be gleaned by using the complex adaptive systems framework. This approach to sustainable development issues implicitly requires proactive involvement by the public. This paper supports that bottom-up participation needs to be nurtured. Appropriate processes to enable participation need to be designed and implemented. 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RP Wilbanks, TJ, Oak Ridge Natl Lab, Div Environm Sci, Oak Ridge, TN 37831 USA. AB This paper reports on investigations of two propositions. First, it is easy to overestimate the importance of climate change in the larger picture of sustainable development while at the same time underestimating the potential for climate change concerns to be a catalyst for progress toward sustainable development. Second, these imbalances in perceptions are more likely to be addressed effectively at a local scale than at a global or national scale. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *AAG, 2003, GLOB CHANG LOC PLAC *HADL CTR, 2000, REG CLIM SIM *IPCC, 1994, TECHN GUID ASS CLIM MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 *NACC, 2000, CLIM CHANG IMP US PO *NAS, 1999, OUR COMM JOURN TRANS *ORNL CUSAT, 2003, POSS VULN COCH IND C *UNDP, IN PRESS AD POL FRAM CAPISTRANO D, 2003, CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK, P107 CLARK WC, 2000, 20012 HARV U KENN SC DOWNING TE, 2000, CLIMATE CHANGE VULNE JODHA NS, 1989, GREEN HOUSE WARMING JODHA NS, 1992, REGIONS GLOBAL WARMI KATES RW, 2001, SCIENCE, V292, P641 MANABE S, 1994, J CLIMATE, V7, P5 PARSON EA, 2003, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V57, P9 WILBANKS TJ, 1994, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V84, P541 WILBANKS TJ, 1999, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V43, P601 WILBANKS TJ, 2003, ENVIRONMENT, V45, P28 WILBANKS TJ, 2003, SCALING ISSUES INTEG, P5 NR 20 TC 0 J9 CLIM POLICY BP S147 EP S154 PY 2003 VL 3 GA 761BN UT ISI:000187879500011 ER PT J AU Pretty, JN Ball, AS Li, XY Ravindranath, NH TI The role of sustainable agriculture and renewable-resource management in reducing greenhouse-gas emissions and increasing sinks in China and India SO PHILOSOPHICAL TRANSACTIONS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY OF LONDON SERIES A-MATHEMATICAL PHYSICAL AND ENGINEERING SCIENCES LA English DT Article C1 Univ Essex, Ctr Environm & Soc, Colchester CO4 3SQ, Essex, England. Univ Essex, Dept Biol Sci, Colchester CO4 3SQ, Essex, England. China Agr Univ, Coll Rural Dev, Beijing 100094, Peoples R China. Indian Inst Sci, Ctr Ecol Sci, Bangalore 560012, Karnataka, India. RP Pretty, JN, Univ Essex, Ctr Environm & Soc, Wivenhoe Pk, Colchester CO4 3SQ, Essex, England. AB This paper contains an analysis of the technical options in agriculture for reducing greenhouse-gas emissions and increasing sinks, arising from three distinct mechanisms: (i) increasing carbon sinks in soil organic matter and above-ground biomass; (ii) avoiding carbon emissions from farms by reducing direct and indirect energy use; and (iii) increasing renewable-energy production from biomass that either substitutes for consumption of fossil fuels or replaces inefficient burning of fuelwood or crop residues, and so avoids carbon emissions, together with use of biogas digesters and improved cookstoves. We then review best-practice sustainable agriculture and renewable-resource-management projects and initiatives in China and India, and analyse the annual net sinks being created by these projects, and the potential market value of the carbon sequestered. We conclude with a summary of the policy and institutional conditions and reforms required for adoption of best sustainability practice in the agricultural sector to achieve the desired reductions in emissions and increases in sinks. A review of 40 sustainable agriculture and renewable-resource-management projects in China and India under the three mechanisms estimated a carbon mitigation potential of 64.8 MtC yr(-1) from 5.5 Mha. The potential income for carbon mitigation is $324 million at $5 per tonne of carbon. The potential exists to increase this by orders of magnitude, and so contribute significantly to greenhouse-gas abatement. Most agricultural mitigation options also provide several ancillary benefits. However, there are many technical, financial, policy, legal and institutional barriers to overcome. 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RP Walford, N, Kingston Univ, Sch Earth Sci & Geog, Penrhyn Rd, Kingston upon Thames KT1 2EE, Surrey, England. AB The 1992 reform of the European Union's Common Agricultural Policy included an 'Accompanying Measure' that sought to coordinate the agri-environmental programmes of member states alongside initially voluntary and later compulsory set-aside measures designed to restrain agricultural production. These reforms have been seen as signalling a transition from a productivist to post-productivist philosophy in agricultural policy, although survey evidence is less than conclusive that this change of direction has permeated through the industry at the grassroots level. This paper reports on results from a farmer survey that shows contrasting responses according to whether policy measures are compulsory or voluntary. Commercial farmers are more willing to volunteer participation in optional agri-environmental schemes, where they feel they have greater control over its effects on farming operations but respond by adapting their implementation of compulsory set-aside to suit their own agricultural production purposes. Such a response casts considerable doubt over whether large-scale commercial farmers can be regarded as having made a transition to post-productivism. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. 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Univ Calif San Diego, Sci Studies Program, La Jolla, CA 92093 USA. RP Oreskes, N, Univ Calif San Diego, Dept Hist, La Jolla, CA 92093 USA. CR *AM GEOPH UN, 2003, EOS, V84, P574 *AM MET SOC, 2003, B AM METEOROL SOC, V84, P508 *NAT AC SCI COMM S, 2001, CLIM CHANG SCI AN SO MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 REVKIN AC, 2003, NY TIMES 0619, A1 VANDENHOVE S, 2003, CLIM POLICY, V2, P3 NR 6 TC 1 J9 SCIENCE BP 1686 EP 1686 PY 2004 PD DEC 3 VL 306 IS 5702 GA 878FA UT ISI:000225630800026 ER PT J AU Guill, S TI Vulnerability and adaptation of African ecosystems to global climate change - Foreword SO CLIMATE RESEARCH LA English DT Editorial Material RP Guill, S, CSMT,US COUNTRY STUDIES PROGRAM,PO 63,1000 INDEPENDENCE AVE SW,WASHINGTON,DC 20585. NR 0 TC 0 J9 CLIMATE RES BP U4 EP U4 PY 1996 PD FEB 19 VL 6 IS 2 GA UD549 UT ISI:A1996UD54900001 ER PT J AU Poirot, C TI How can institutional economics be an evolutionary science? SO JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC ISSUES LA English DT Article C1 Shawnee State Univ, Portsmouth, OH USA. RP Poirot, C, Shawnee State Univ, Portsmouth, OH USA. 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RP El Raey, M, Univ Alexandria, Inst Grad Studies & Res, Alexandria, Egypt. AB Assessment of the vulnerability of and expected socioeconomic losses over the Nile Delta coast due to the impact of sea level rise (SLR) was carried out in detail. Impacts of SLR on the Governorates of Alexandria and Port Said, in particular, were evaluated quantitatively. Options and costs of adaptation were analyzed and presented. Multi-criteria and decision matrix approaches based on questionnaire surveys were carried out to identify priorities in the 2 case studies. Results indicate that there are very limited possibilities of changing jobs for vulnerable stakeholders; cost is the main barrier of implementation; the majority of stakeholders recommend protection actions; and beach nourishment with limited hard structures (groins and breakwaters) is the best immediate option for adaptation, while the ICZM approach is the best available strategic option. CR *DELFT HYDR, 1991, IMPL REL SLR DEV LOW *IDSC, 1995, INF DESCR EG *TETR, 1986, SHOR PROT MAST PLAN CARTER TR, 1994, IPCC TECHNICAL GUIDE ELRAEY M, 1995, J COASTAL RES, V14, P190 ELRAEY M, 1997, ENVIRON MONIT ASSESS, V47, P59 ELRAEY M, 1998, ENVIRON MONIT ASSESS, V56, P113 ELRAEY M, 1999, IN PRESS INT J REMOT FANOS AM, 1995, J COASTAL RES, V11, P516 FRIHY OE, 1996, OCEAN COAST MANAGE, V30, P281 IBRAHIM MA, 1997, AQUACULTURE RELATION SESTINI G, 1989, 214 WG UNEP OCA SMITH AE, 1994, R2611A DEC FOC INC SMITH JB, 1997, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V7, P251 STANLEY DJ, 1993, SCIENCE, V260, P628 NR 15 TC 0 J9 CLIMATE RES BP 117 EP 128 PY 1999 PD AUG 27 VL 12 IS 2-3 GA V3096 UT ISI:000171723000009 ER PT J AU Jones, RN TI An environmental risk assessment/management framework for climate change impact assessments SO NATURAL HAZARDS LA English DT Article C1 CSIRO, Div Atmospher Res, Aspendale, Vic 3195, Australia. RP Jones, RN, CSIRO, Div Atmospher Res, Aspendale, Vic 3195, Australia. AB This paper presents an environmental risk assessment/risk management framework to assess the impacts of climate change on individual exposure units identified as potentially vulnerable to climate change. This framework is designed specifically to manage the systematic uncertainties that accompany the propagation of climate change scenarios through a sequence of biophysical and socio-economic climate impacts. Risk analysis methods consistent with the IPCC Technical Guidelines for Assessing Climate Change Impacts and Adaptations are set within a larger framework that involves stakeholders in the identification, assessment and implementation of adaptation measures. Extensive consultation between parties occurs in a flexible structure that embeds scientific methods of risk analysis within a broad setting of social decision-making. This format is consistent with recent forms of environmental risk assessment/management frameworks. The risk analysis links key climatic variables expressed as projected ranges of climate change with an upper and lower limit, with impact thresholds identified collaboratively by researchers and stakeholders. The conditional probabilities of exceeding these thresholds are then assessed (probabilities using this method are conditional as the full range of uncertainty for the various drivers of climate change, and their probability distributions, remains unknown). An example based on exceeding irrigation demand limited by an annual farm cap is used to show how conditional probabilities for the exceedance of a critical threshold can be used to assess the need for adaptation. The time between the identification of an acceptable level of risk and its exceedance is identified as a window of adaptation. The treatment of risk consists of two complementary actions, adaptation to anticipated changes in climate and the mitigation of climate change through reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. Both of these actions will reduce the risk of critical thresholds being exceeded. The potential of this framework for addressing specific requirements of the United Nations Framework Convention for Climate Change is discussed. 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Univ Nebraska, Natl Drought Mitigat Ctr, Lincoln, NE 68583 USA. RP Wilhelmi, OV, Natl Ctr Atmospher Res, Adv Study Program, POB 3000, Boulder, CO 80307 USA. AB Recent drought events in the United States and the magnitude of drought losses indicate the continuing vulnerability of the country to drought. Until recently, drought management in many states, including Nebraska, has been largely response oriented with little or no attention to mitigation and preparedness. In 1998, Nebraska began to revise its drought plan in order to place more emphasis on mitigation. One of the main aspects of drought mitigation and planning is the assessment of who and what is vulnerable and why. This paper presents a method for spatial, Geographic Information Systems-based assessment of agricultural drought vulnerability in Nebraska. It was hypothesized that the key biophysical and social factors that define agricultural drought vulnerability were climate, soils, land use, and access to irrigation. The framework for derivation of an agricultural drought vulnerability map was created through development of a numerical weighting scheme to evaluate the drought potential of the classes within each factor. The results indicate that the most vulnerable areas to agricultural drought were non-irrigated cropland and rangeland on sandy soils, located in areas with a very high probability of seasonal crop moisture deficiency. The identification of drought vulnerability is an essential step in addressing the issue of drought vulnerability in the state and can lead to mitigation-oriented drought management. 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CSIR, ZA-7599 Stellenbosch, South Africa. Univ Pretoria, Ctr Environm Studies, ZA-0002 Pretoria, South Africa. RP Bohensky, EL, Univ Stellenbosch, Dept Bot & Zool, Biocomplex Res Grp, Ctr Invas Biol, Private Bag X1, ZA-7602 Stellenbosch, South Africa. AB Scenario planning is a promising tool for dealing with uncertainty, but it has been underutilized in ecology and conservation. The use of scenarios to explore ecological dynamics of alternative futures has been given a major boost by the recently completed Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, a 4-year initiative to investigate relationships between ecosystem services and human well-being at multiple scales. Scenarios, as descriptive narratives of pathways to the future, are a mechanism for improving the understanding and management of ecological and social processes by scientists and decision makers with greater flexibility than conventional techniques could afford. We used scenarios in one of the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment's subglobal components to explore four possible futures in a Southern African river basin. Because of its ability to capture spatial and temporal dynamics, the scenario exercise revealed key trade-offs in ecosystem services in space and time and the importance of a multiple-scale scenario design. At subglobal scales, scenarios are a powerful vehicle for communication and engagement of decision makers, especially when designed to identify responses to specific problems. Scenario planning has the potential to be a critical ingredient in conservation as calls are increasingly made for the field to help define and achieve sustainable visions for the future. 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RP Burke, BE, Washington State Univ, Dept Sociol, Pullman, WA 99164 USA. AB With perhaps controversial implications for theory and practice, this paper suggests that the validity of Hardinian theories of tire commons are dependent on the implicit rational choice assumption that resource users are aware of resource degradation. Without an awareness of the collective costs of resource rise, there can be no dilemma between pursuing individual benefits and avoiding collective ruin. In such situations, the dilemma of the commons cannot be validly, said to be tire cause of resource depletion, and many traditional policy options to address common resource depletion may not be effective. Two reasons for the lack of awareness about resource degradation are (1) fatalistic beliefs that humans cannot harm a resource base, and (2) the growing complexity and abstraction of modern environmental problems that have obscured the collective costs of resource use from our individual and societal awareness. 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Univ Reading, Dept Meteorol, Hadley Ctr, Reading Unit, Reading RG6 6BB, Berks, England. RP Nicholls, RJ, Univ Southampton, Sch Civil Engn & Environm, Univ Rd,Highfield, Southampton SO17 1BJ, Hants, England. AB This paper considers the possible benefits of mitigation of climate change for coastal areas with a strong emphasis on sea-level rise as this is one of the most certain consequences of human-induced global warming. There is a long-term 'commitment to sea-level rise' due to the long thermal lags of the ocean system and hence the response of sea-level rise to mitigation is slower than for other climate factors. Therefore, while climate stabilisation reduces coastal impacts during the 21st century, compared to unmitigated emissions, the largest benefits may occur in the 22nd century (and beyond). The results of the analysis suggest that a mixture of adaptation and mitigation policies need to be considered for coastal areas, as this will provide a more robust response to human-induced climate change than either policy in isolation. This requires the joint evaluation of mitigation and adaptation in coastal areas, ideally using a probabilistic risk-based methodology, which would be a departure from existing analyses. Because of the long time constants involved such assessments need to continue beyond 2100 to provide the full implications of the different policy choices. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 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Murdoch Univ, Sch Environm Sci, Murdoch, WA 6150, Australia. Univ Victoria, Sch Environm Studies, Victoria, BC V8W 2Y2, Canada. CNRS, UMR 5175, Restorat Ecol Grp, CEFE, F-34293 Montpellier, France. RP Harris, JA, Cranfield Univ, Bedford MK45 4DT, England. AB There is an increasing consensus that global climate change occurs and that potential changes in climate are likely to have important regional consequences for biota and ecosystems. Ecological restoration, including (re)afforestation and rehabilitation of degraded land, is included in the array of potential human responses to climate change. However, the implications of climate change for the broader practice of ecological restoration must be considered. In particular, the usefulness of historical eco-system conditions as targets and references must be set against the likelihood that restoring these historic ecosystems is unlikely to be easy, or even possible, in the changed biophysical conditions of the future. We suggest that more consideration and debate needs to be directed at the implications of climate change for restoration practice. 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Texas A&M Univ, Dept Agr Econ, College Stn, TX 77843 USA. RP Schneider, UA, Univ Hamburg, Res Unit Sustainabil & Global Change, Ctr Marine & Climate Res, Bundesstr 55, D-20146 Hamburg, Germany. AB There is interest in society in general and in the agricultural and forestry sectors concerning a land-based role in greenhouse gas mitigation reduction. Numerous studies have estimated the potential supply schedules at which agriculture and forestry could produce greenhouse gas offsets. However, such studies vary widely in critical assumptions regarding economic market adjustments, allowed scope of mitigation alternatives, and region of focus. Here, we examine the effects of using different assumptions on the total emission mitigation supply curve from agriculture and forestry in the United States. To do this we employ the U.S.-based Agricultural Sector and Mitigation of Greenhouse Gas Model and find that variations in such factors can have profound effects on the results. Differences between commonly employed methods shift economic mitigation potentials from -55 to + 85%. The bias is stronger at higher carbon prices due to afforestation and energy crop plantations that reduce supply of traditional commodities. Lower carbon prices promote management changes with smaller impacts on commodity supply. 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Univ E Anglia, Sch Environm Sci, Climat Res Unit, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. Natl Ctr Atmospher Res, Environm & Societal Impacts Grp, Boulder, CO 80307 USA. Minist Mines Environm & Tourism, Climate Change Off, Harare, Zimbabwe. Univ Oxford, Sch Geog, Oxford OX1 3TB, England. RP Hulme, M, Univ E Anglia, Sch Environm Sci, Tyndall Ctr Climate Change Res, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. AB This paper reviews observed (1900-2000) and possible future (2000-2100) continent-wide changes in temperature and rainfall for Africa. For the historic period we draw upon a new observed global climate data set which allows us to explore aspects of regional climate change related to diurnal temperature range and rainfall variability. The latter includes an investigation of regions where seasonal rainfall is sensitive to El Nino climate variability. This review of past climate change provides the context for our scenarios of future greenhouse gas-induced climate change in Africa. These scenarios draw upon the draft emissions scenarios prepared for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Third Assessment Report, a suite of recent global climate model experiments, and a simple climate model to link these 2 sets of analyses. We present a range of 4 climate futures for Africa, focusing on changes in both continental and regional seasonal-mean temperature and rainfall. Estimates of associated changes in global CO2 concentration and global-mean sea-level change are also supplied. These scenarios draw upon some of the most recent climate modelling work. We also identify some fundamental limitations to knowledge with regard to future African climate. These include the often poor representation of El Nino climate variability in global climate models, and the absence in these models of any representation of regional changes in land cover and dust and biomass aerosol loadings. These omitted processes may well have important consequences for future African climates, especially at regional scales. We conclude by discussing the value of the sort of climate change scenarios presented here and how best they should be used in national and regional vulnerability and adaptation assessments. 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Univ E Anglia, Sch Environm Sci, CSERGE, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. RP Adger, WN, Univ E Anglia, Sch Environm Sci, Tyndall Ctr Climate Change Res, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. AB Future changes in climate pose significant challenges for society, not the least of which is how best to adapt to observed and potential future impacts of these changes to which the world is already committed. Adaptation is a dynamic social process: the ability of societies to adapt is determined, in part, by the ability to act collectively. This article reviews emerging perspectives on collective action and social capital and argues that insights from these areas inform the nature of adaptive capacity and normative prescriptions of policies of adaptation. Specifically, social capital is increasingly understood within economics to have public and private elements, both of which are based on trust, reputation, and reciprocal action. The public-good aspects of particular forms of social capital are pertinent elements of adaptive capacity in interacting with natural capital and in relation to the performance of institutions that cope with the risks of changes in climate. Case studies are presented of present-day collective action for coping with extremes in weather in coastal areas in Southeast Asia and of community-based coastal management in the Caribbean. These cases demonstrate the importance of social capital framing both the public and private institutions of resource management that build resilience in the face of the risks of changes in climate. These cases illustrate, by analogy, the nature of adaptation processes and collective action in adapting to future changes in climate. 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Univ Sussex, Brighton BN1 9RH, E Sussex, England. RP Fairhead, J, Univ London, Sch Oriental & African Studies, London WC1E 7HU, England. AB This paper examines science-policy interactions associated with desiccationism, a gloss for the drying effects of vegetation loss on climate and soils, in Guinea, West Africa. Drawing mainly on case material from the forest region of Guinea between 1900 and the post-Independence period after 1958, it traces the uneven rise to dominance of desiccationism in policy and its effects. Desiccationism, we argue, was a colonial anxiety from the earliest, but until the 1930's scientists, administrators, and populations interacted in configurations that limited the implementation of anti-desiccation policies and forced their adaptation to local resistance. By the 1950's, however, political and administrative changes, coupled with shifting regional and global agendas, enabled a transformation in the relationship between scientific analysis and bureaucracy. Agricultural and forest policy now aligned closely with desiccationism, extending bureaucratic control and exerting profound - and damaging - effects on rural livelihoods. In the political climate leading up to independence, this colonial science-development apparatus became a target of liberationist struggles, provoking greater heed to local resistance. But this proved to be only a short interlude, and post-Independence policies showed remarkable continuity with those in place earlier. Reflecting on recent theoretical debates, we emphasize that comprehending these shifts requires attention to power-knowledge and state-science relations as ss well as political economy and to the actual practices, actions and relationships of administrators and populations. 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Univ Georgia, Dept Anthropol, Athens, GA 30602 USA. RP Magistro, J, Int Dev Enterprises, 10403 W Colfax Ave,Suite 500, Lakewood, CO 80215 USA. AB This paper highlights the relevance of anthropological research to climate science. It suggests that localized scales of analysis, that have been the hallmark of anthropology, can complement global modeling exercises that cannot fully capture the complexities of real life decisions. Community and culture are key dimensions that mediate the interaction between humans and climate, Anthropology has a long-standing tradition of studying vulnerability and adaptation to environmental stresses. Political economy and political ecology approaches contextualize climate risk, highlighting the need to integrate climate products with policy solutions. Microanalyses of risk management and decision-making strategies can bring science and policy closer to the needs of vulnerable groups. Tools and insights from cognitive anthropology also facilitate communication of climate information by ensuring consistency with local knowledge frameworks. CR AGRAWAL A, 1995, DEV CHANGE, V26, P413 BLAIKIE PM, 1994, RISK NATURAL HAZARDS, V1, P1 BROAD K, 2000, PRACT ANTHR, V22, P20 BROAD K, 2000, SCIENCE, V289, P1693 DOWNING TE, 1992, CLIMATE CHANGE VULNE DOWNING TE, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE WORLD, P206 DREZE J, 1989, HUNGER PUBLICATION GLANTZ MH, 1992, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V2, P183 GLANTZ MH, 1996, CURRENTS CHANGE NINO INGRAM KT, 2000, P INT FOR CLIM PRED, P265 KEMPTON W, 1995, ENV VALUES AM CULTUR LAHSEN M, 1999, PARANOIA REASON CASE, P111 MAHMOUD H, 2000, PRACT ANTHR, V22, P11 MORAN E, 1998, PEOPLES PIXELS REMOT NELSON DR, 2000, PRACTICING ANTHR, V22, P6 ORLOVE B, 1999, 99 U CAL I INT STUD ORLOVE B, 2001, LINES WATER NATURE C ORLOVE BS, 2000, NATURE, V403, P68 OTTERSTROM S, 2000, PRACT ANTHR, V22, P15 PFAFF A, 1999, NATURE, V397, P645 PROCTOR JD, 1998, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V8, P227 RAYNER S, 1998, HUMAN CHOICE CLIMATE RHOADES R, 1997, PATHWAYS SUSTAINABLE RIBOT JC, 1996, CLIMATE VARIABILITY, V1, P1 RONCOLI C, IN PRESS READING RAI RONCOLI C, 2000, PRACT ANTHR, V22, P24 SHAW RV, 1998, IHDP P, V1 SMITHERS J, 1997, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V7, P129 STERN PC, 1992, GLOBAL ENV CHANGE UN STERN PC, 1999, MAKING CLIMATE FOREC THOMPSON M, 1998, HUMAN CHOICE CLIMATE, V1, P265 NR 31 TC 1 J9 CLIMATE RES BP 91 EP 96 PY 2001 PD DEC 4 VL 19 IS 2 GA 521BZ UT ISI:000173820000001 ER PT J AU Ye, DZ Lu, JH TI Retrospect and prospect: advances and future strategies in climate research SO PROGRESS IN NATURAL SCIENCE LA English DT Review C1 Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Atmospher Phys, Beijing 100029, Peoples R China. RP Ye, DZ, Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Atmospher Phys, Beijing 100029, Peoples R China. AB A brief review of the progress in climate research and a prospect on its further development in the 21st century is presented. Some key findings including the concept of climate system, the discovery of climatic multi-equilibrium and abrupt climate changes, and the recognition of human activities as an important force of climate change made breakthroughs in climatology possible during last few decades. The adaptation to climatic and global change emerged as a new aspect of climatic research during the 1990s. Climate research will break through in the observation of the global system, in the analysis of mass data, in the deepening of research on the mechanism of climatic change, and in the improvement of models. In the applied fields of climate research, there will be substantial progress in the research on adaptation to global change and sustainable development, on orderly human activities, and climate modification. CR *IGBP, 1988, 4 IGBP *IPCC, 1990, CLIM CHANG 1990 SCI WATSON RT, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, V1, P1 *IPCC, 1995, CLIM CHANG 1995 SCI *IPCC, 2001, CLIM CHANG 2001 SCI *WMO ICSU, 1975, GARP PUBL SER, V16 BLACKMON M, 2001, B AM METEOROL SOC, V82, P2357 CHAO JP, 1993, DYNAMICS EL NINO SO CHARNEY J, 1975, Q J ROY METEOR SOC, V101, P193 COX PM, 2000, NATURE, V408, P184 CROWLEY TJ, 2000, SCIENCE, V289, P270 DEMAREE GR, 1990, Q J ROY METEOR SOC, V116, P221 FALKOWSKI P, 2000, SCIENCE, V290, P291 FU C, 1998, 100 PUZZLES SCI 21 C, P307 GRASSL H, 2000, SCIENCE, V288, P1991 HURRELL JW, 1995, SCIENCE, V269, P676 MAHLMAN JD, 1997, SCIENCE, V278, P1416 PRENTICE IC, 2001, IPCC CLIMATE CHANGE, P183 SELLERS PJ, 1997, SCIENCE, V275, P502 STEFFEN W, 2001, IGBP SCI SERIES, V4 YAN ZW, 1990, SCI CHINA SER B, V33, P1092 YE DZ, 2000, B CHINESE ACAD SCI, V14, P164 YE DZ, 2001, ADV EARTH SCI, V16, P453 ZHANG XH, 2000, IAP GLOBAL OCEAN LAN NR 24 TC 0 J9 PROG NAT SCI BP 241 EP 246 PY 2003 PD APR VL 13 IS 4 GA 661TN UT ISI:000181906000001 ER PT J AU Walter, RC Buffler, RT Bruggemann, JH Guillaume, MMM Berhe, SM Negassi, B Libsekal, Y Cheng, H Edwards, RL von Cosel, R Neraudeau, D Gagnon, M TI Early human occupation of the Red Sea coast of Eritrea during the last interglacial SO NATURE LA English DT Article C1 Ctr Invest Cient Educ Super Ensenada, Dept Geol, Ensenada, Baja California, Mexico. Univ Texas, Inst Geophys, Austin, TX 78712 USA. Univ Groningen, Dept Marine Biol, NL-9750 AA Haren, Netherlands. Univ Asmara, Dept Fisheries & Marine Biol, Asmara, Eritrea. Wageningen Univ Agr, Wageningen Inst Anim Sci, Expt Zool Grp, NL-6700 AH Wageningen, Netherlands. Museum Natl Hist Nat, Lab Biol Invertebres Marins & Malacol, CNRS, ESA 8044, F-75005 Paris, France. African Minerals Inc, Asmara, Eritrea. Minist Energy & Mines, Dept Mines, Asmara, Eritrea. Natl Museum Eritrea, Asmara, Eritrea. Univ Asmara, Archaeol Unit, Asmara, Eritrea. Univ Minnesota, Dept Geol & Geophys, Minneapolis, MN 55455 USA. Univ Rennes 1, Geosci Rennes, Lab Paleontol, F-35042 Rennes, France. Univ Toronto, Dept Anthropol, Toronto, ON M5S 3G3, Canada. RP Walter, RC, Ctr Invest Cient Educ Super Ensenada, Dept Geol, Km 107 Carr Tijuana Ensenada, Ensenada, Baja California, Mexico. AB The geographical origin of modern humans is the subject of ongoing scientific debate. The 'multiregional evolution' hypothesis argues that modern humans evolved semi-independently in Europe, Asia and Africa between 100,000 and 40,000 years ago 1, whereas the 'out of Africa' hypothesis contends that modern humans evolved in Africa between 200 and 100 kyr ago, migrating to Eurasia at some later time(2). Direct palaeontological, archaeological and biological evidence is necessary to resolve this debate. Here we report the discovery of early Middle Stone Age artefacts in an emerged reef terrace on the Red Sea coast of Eritrea, which we date to the last interglacial (about 125 kyr ago) using U-Th mass spectrometry techniques on fossil corals. The geological setting of these artefacts shows that early humans occupied coastal areas and exploited near-shore marine food resources in East Africa by this time. Together with similar, tentatively dated discoveries from South Africa(3) this is the earliest well-dated evidence for human adaptation to a coastal marine environment, heralding an expansion in the range and complexity of human behaviour from one end of Africa to the other. This new, widespread adaptive strategy may, in part, signal the onset of modern human behaviour, which supports an African origin for modern humans by 125 kyr ago. CR BRINK JS, 1982, PALAEOECOL AFR, V15, P31 CHEN JH, 1991, GEOL SOC AM BULL, V103, P82 CHENG H, IN PRESS HALF LIVES CLARK JD, 1988, J WORLD PREHIST, V2, P237 CONFORTO L, 1976, SOC IT MIN PET, V32, P153 DEACON HJ, 1989, HUMAN REVOLUTION BEH, P547 EDWARDS RL, 1986, EARTH PLANET SC LETT, V81, P175 ELASMAR HM, 1997, QUATERNARY SCI REV, V16, P911 FAURE H, 1968, CR HEBD ACAD SCI, V267, P18 FAURE H, 1980, B SOC GEOL FR, V22, P959 FREYTET P, 1993, Z GEOMORPHOL, V37, P215 GRUN R, 1991, ARCHAEOMETRY, V33, P153 GVIRTZMAN G, 1977, MEMOIRES BUREAU RECH, V89, P480 GVIRTZMAN G, 1992, MAR GEOL, V108, P29 HOANG CT, 1974, COL INT CNRS, V219, P103 HOANG CT, 1991, QUATERNARY RES, V35, P264 HOANG CT, 1996, QUATERN INT, V31, P47 HOROWITZ A, 1989, PALAEOGEOGR PALAEOCL, V72, P63 KLEIN RG, 1989, HUMAN REVOLUTION BEH, P529 LEAKEY L, 1931, STONE AGE CULTURES K LENEY M, 1999, DISCOV ARCHAEOL, V1, P18 MONTENAT C, 1986, B I FRAN ARCHEOL ORI, V86, P239 PHILIPSONDW, 1993, AFRICAN ARCHAEOLOGY PLAZIAT JC, 1998, SEDIMENTATION TECTON, P537 STIRLING CH, 1998, EARTH PLANET SC LETT, V160, P745 STRINGER CB, 1990, SCI AM, V263, P98 TAVIANI M, 1998, SEDIMENTATION TECTON, P574 THORNE A, 1992, SCI AM APR, P28 VANPEER P, 1998, CURR ANTHROPOL, V39, P115 WALTER RC, 1997, LITHOSPHERIC STRUCTU NR 30 TC 24 J9 NATURE BP 65 EP 69 PY 2000 PD MAY 4 VL 405 IS 6782 GA 311TK UT ISI:000086901600051 ER PT J AU Connor, RF Hiroki, K TI Development of a method for assessing flood vulnerability SO WATER SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY LA English DT Article C1 CPWC, NL-2601 DA Delft, Netherlands. Minist Land Infrastruct & Transport, River Bur, Chiyoda Ku, Tokyo 1008918, Japan. RP Connor, RF, CPWC, POB 3015, NL-2601 DA Delft, Netherlands. AB Over the past few decades, a growing number of studies have been conducted on the mechanisms responsible for climate change and the elaboration of future climate scenarios. More recently, studies have emerged examining the potential effects of climate change on human societies, including how variations in hydrological regimes impact water resources management. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's third assessment report, climate change will lead to an intensification of the hydrological cycle, resulting in greater variability in precipitation patterns and an increase in the intensity and frequency of severe storms and other extreme events. In other words, climate change will likely increase the risks of flooding in many areas. Structural and non-structural countermeasures are available to reduce flood vulnerability, but implementing new measures can be a lengthy process requiring political and financial support. In order to help guide such policy decisions, a method for assessing flood vulnerability due to climate change is proposed. In this preliminary study, multivariate analysis has been used to develop a Flood Vulnerability Index (FVI), which allows for a comparative analysis of flood vulnerability between different basins. Once fully developed, the FVI will also allow users to identify the main factors responsible for a basin's vulnerability, making it a valuable tool to assist in priority setting within decision-making processes. CR *CTR EC HYDR, 2003, CLIM CHANG WAT RUL W KAINUMA M, 2002, CLIMATE POLICY ASSES MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 SULLIVAN C, 2002, WORLD DEV, V30, P1195 SULLIVAN CA, 2003, SCOPING STUDY IDENTI NR 5 TC 0 J9 WATER SCI TECHNOL BP 61 EP 67 PY 2005 VL 51 IS 5 GA 931CW UT ISI:000229464400011 ER PT J AU TARRANT, JR TI VARIABILITY IN WORLD CEREAL YIELDS SO TRANSACTIONS OF THE INSTITUTE OF BRITISH GEOGRAPHERS LA English DT Article RP TARRANT, JR, UNIV E ANGLIA,ENVIRONM SCI,NORWICH NR4 7TJ,NORFOLK,ENGLAND. CR BORLAUG NE, 1968, 3RD P INT WHEAT GEN BUTZER KW, 1980, PROF GEOGR, V32, P269 CAMPBELL KO, 1974, FOOD FUTURE DANDO WA, 1980, GEOGRAPHY FAMINE ECKHOLM EP, 1976, LOSING GROUND FALCON WP, 1970, AM J AGR ECON, V52, P698 FEYERHERM AM, 1981, AGRON J, V73, P863 GRIGG D, 1985, WORLD FOOD PROBLEM 1 HAZELL PBR, 1984, AM J AGR ECON, V66, P302 HAZELL PBR, 1985, AM J AGR EC, V36, P145 HENDRICK RL, 1970, J HYDROL, V10, P151 HENRY P, 1981, REG POLICY SER, V21 INSEL B, 1985, FOREIGN AFF, V63, P892 JENNINGS PR, 1974, SCIENCE, V185, P1085 JOHNSTON RJ, 1984, T I BRIT GEOGR, V9, P443 KOGAN FN, 1983, AGR METEOROL, V28, P213 KONANDREAS P, 1979, FOOD POLICY, V4, P3 LOUGH JM, 1983, J CLIM APPL METEOROL, V22, P1673 MEARS L, 1981, NEW RICE EC INDONESI MOSTEK A, 1981, AGR METEOROL, V25, P111 REUTLINGER S, 1977, FOOD INSECURITY MAGN TARRANT JR, 1985, PROG HUM GEOG, V9, P235 TARRANT JR, 1980, FOOD POLICIES TARRANT JR, 1984, T I BRIT GEOGR, V9, P387 TARRANT JR, 1987, VARIABILITY CEREAL Y, CH3 TAYLOR LR, 1980, J ANIM ECOL, V49, P209 TERJUNG WH, 1984, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V6, P193 THOMPSON LM, 1975, SCIENCE, V188, P535 UCHIJIMA Z, 1986, ASSESSMENT CLIMATE I, V1 WARD RC, 1967, PRINCIPLES HYDROLOGY WITTWER SW, 1980, BIOL CROP PRODUCTIVI, P413 WORTMAN S, 1978, FEED THIS WORLD NR 32 TC 2 J9 TRANS INST BRIT GEOGR BP 315 EP 326 PY 1987 VL 12 IS 3 GA K9286 UT ISI:A1987K928600004 ER PT J AU Steele, JH TI Regime shifts in the ocean: reconciling observations and theory SO PROGRESS IN OCEANOGRAPHY LA English DT Review C1 Woods Hole Oceanog Inst, Woods Hole, MA 02543 USA. RP Steele, JH, Woods Hole Oceanog Inst, Woods Hole, MA 02543 USA. AB The discussions in the Villefranche Workshop covered a wide range of issues. The term regime shift was originally confined to spatial or temporal correspondences between climatic indices and population abundance. The body of evidence for physical-biological coupling has certainly generated a much better appreciation of the natural decadal scale variability in marine systems. It is difficult, however, to deduce from these time series, the mechanisms or trophic pathways that produce the correspondence. Ideally, we would need experimental manipulations such as those used in small takes, to unravel the causal connections. Since this is impossible in the open sea, we must use comparisons between systems subject to different types of perturbation or stress. We focused at the Workshop on the effects of over-fishing in different marine regimes. The consequences of large scale changes in community structure imposed by excessive fishing give valuable case studies. Coral reefs, rocky shores, freshwater and terrestrial ecosystems provide other examples. The possible existence of similar processes across such diverse systems raises corresponding questions about common ecological principles. The adaptive benefits of maximizing resilience (defined as minimizing the largest eigenvalue of the perturbed system) were considered. The corollary of this assumption is that, at the limits of adaptation, there will be switching between communities, providing a potential ground for a broad definition of regime shifts. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 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RUSSIAN ACAD SCI,CTR ECOL & FOREST PROD,MOSCOW 117418,RUSSIA. STATE HYDROL INST,ST PETERSBURG 199053,RUSSIA. RP Krankina, ON, OREGON STATE UNIV,DEPT FOREST SCI,PEAVY HALL 154,CORVALLIS,OR 97330. AB The Russian Federation contains approximately 20% of the world's timber resources and more than half of all boreal forests. These forests play a prominent role in environmental protection and economic development at global, national, and local levels, as well as, provide commodities for indigenous people and habitat for a variety of plant and animal species. The response and feedbacks of Russian boreal forests to projected global climate change are expected to be profound. Large shifts in the distribution (up to 19% area reduction) and productivity of boreal forests are implied by scenarios of General Circulation Models (GCMs), Uncertainty regarding the potential distribution and productivity of future boreal forests complicates the development of adaptation strategies for forest establishment, management, harvesting and wood processing. Although a low potential exists for rapid natural adaptation of long lived, complex boreal forests, recent analyses suggest Russian forest management and utilization strategies should be field tested to assess their potential to assist boreal forests in adaptation to a changing global environment. Current understanding of the vulnerability of Russian forest resources to projected climate change is discussed and examples of possible adaptation measures for Russian forests are presented, including: (1) artificial forestation techniques that can be applied with the advent of failed natural regeneration and to facilitate forest migration northward; (2) silvicultural measures that can influence the species mix to maintain productivity under future climates; (3) identifying forests at risk and developing special management adaptation measures for them; (4) alternative processing and uses of wood and non-wood products from future forests; and (5) potential future infrastructure and transport systems that can be employed as boreal forests shift northward into melting permafrost zones. Current infrastructure and technology can be employed to help Russian boreal forests adapt to projected global environmental change, however many current forest management practices may have to be modified. Application of this technical knowledge can help policymakers identify priorities for climate change adaptation. 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RP Trawick, P, Univ Kentucky, Dept Anthropol, Lexington, KY 40506 USA. AB This article focuses on irrigation and water use in a community in the Peruvian Andes, one of numerous villages in the region where these activities are carried out in an unusual way. The practices and principles that make up this tradition, defining the rights and duties of community members in making use of the resource most vital for life, are identified and evaluated based on comparative ethnographic research. It is argued that they provide a highly effective way of managing a scarce and fluctuating resource that is held in common, an older Andean tradition that may have been adopted by the Incas and endorsed as an official policy-all of which might help to account for its wide distribution in the region today. In this particular case, the principles help to create an extraordinary kind of community, a transparent and equitable one in which a basic material symmetry or proportionality is expressed at many levels. This symmetry is closely related to other basic commonalities among community members, but of particular interest are its effects on social solidarity and cooperation and its association with a strong sense of ethnic identity. The implications of this tradition for solving contemporary problems in water management are also briefly discussed. 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RP Bouwer, LM, Free Univ Amsterdam, Fac Earth & Life Sci, Inst Environm Studies, De Boelelaan 1087, NL-1081 HV Amsterdam, Netherlands. AB Current climate variability and anticipated climate change challenge our water systems and our financial resources. The sharing of economic losses due to weather related hazards and the sharing of costs that result from protecting lives and property take place in different forms, but are currently insufficient. In this paper we discuss three different rationales for financing disaster losses through public and private arrangements, as well as options for financing adaptation, with a special focus on water management. We propose that financial arrangements for risk sharing and climate change adaptation should be reconsidered, in a more structured approach, to be able to deal with both disaster losses and the costs that arise because of climate change adaptation, e.g. for water management, in both developing and developed countries. CR *CCR, 1999, NAT DIS FRANC *EC, 2002, COM, P481 *IFRC, 2002, WORLD DIS REP 2002 F *SWISS RE, 2002, FLOODS INS BOUWER LM, 2004, E0406 I ENV STUD DOWNTON M, 2001, NATURAL HAZARDS REV, V2, P157 GROSSMAN D, 2003, COL J ENV LAW, V28, P1 HOFF H, 2003, RISK MANAGEMENT WATE HUQ S, 2003, MAINSTREAMING ADAPTA KABAT P, 2003, CLIMATE CHANGES WATE LINNEROOTHBAYER J, 2003, UNFCCC WORKSH UNFCCC PARRY ML, 1998, NATURE, V421, P37 VELLINGA P, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, P417 VRIES FJ, 1998, NEDERLANDS JURISTEN, V73, P1908 WILFORD M, 1993, GLOBAL GREENHOUSE RE, P169 NR 15 TC 1 J9 WATER SCI TECHNOL BP 89 EP 95 PY 2005 VL 51 IS 5 GA 931CW UT ISI:000229464400014 ER PT J AU Stewart, JR TI The ecology and adaptation of Neanderthals during the non-analogue environment of Oxygen Isotope Stage 3 SO QUATERNARY INTERNATIONAL LA English DT Article C1 Univ Coll London, Dept Biol, London WC1 6BT, England. RP Stewart, JR, Univ Coll London, Dept Biol, Gower St, London WC1 6BT, England. AB The ecology of Neanderthals is discussed using an analysis of the fauna present in Europe during OIS 3, the period during which they became extinct. The environment of the Neanderthals is demonstrated to be without modern analogue. The non-analogue nature is characterised by the combination of mammals living together in OIS 3 Europe that are not found in sympatry today as well as the extinct elements of the fauna. The singularity of OIS 3, in terms of the arrival of modern humans and climatic variability, has been formerly implicated in the extinction of the Neanderthals. These perspectives are discussed in the light of related work on evolution and extinction. Finally, the cold-temperature adaptations of Neanderthals, such as their robusticity and limb proportions, are considered in the light of the interpretations of similar traits in other animals in the Late Pleistocene. © 2004 Elsevier Ltd and INQUA. All rights reserved. CR *FAUNM WORK GROUP, 1994, FAUNM DAT DOC LAT PL AIELLO LC, 2003, MCDONAL I MONOGRAPHY, P147 BARNES J, 2001, SCIENCE, V295, P2267 BARNOSKY AD, 1996, PALAEOECOLOGY PALAEO, P16 BARRON E, 2002, QUATERNARY RES, V58, P296 BRAMBLE DM, 2004, NATURE, V432, P345 COCK AG, 1969, GENETICS RES, V14, P237 COLINVAUX PA, 1986, Q REV ARCHAEOLOGY, V7, P8 COOPE GR, 1973, NATURE, V245, P335 DANSGAARD W, 1993, NATURE, V364, P218 DAVIES SWG, IN PRESS OVERVIEW RE DAVIES SWG, 2001, STAGE THREE PROJECT DAVIES W, 2001, P PREHIST SOC, V67, P195 DAVIES W, 2003, NEANDERTHALS MODERN, P167 DAVIS SJM, 1981, PALEOBIOLOGY, V7, P101 DERRICO F, 2003, QUATERNARY SCI REV, V22, P769 FINLAYSON C, 2000, 3 C ARQ PEN, V2, P277 FINLAYSON C, 2000, MEMOIRS GIBCEMED, V1, P1 GAMBLE C, 2004, PHILOS T ROY SOC B, V359, P155 GEIST V, 1987, CAN J ZOOL, V65, P1035 GRAHAM RW, 1986, DYNAMICS EXTINCTION, P131 GRAHAM RW, 1996, SCIENCE, V272, P1601 GRAYSON DK, 2003, J ARCHAEOL SCI, V30, P1633 GUTHRIE RD, 1990, FROZEN FAUNA MAMMOUT GUTHRIE RD, 1990, MEGAFAUNA MAN DICOS, P42 HELMENS KF, 2000, QUATERNARY SCI REV, V19, P1605 HEWITT G, 2000, NATURE, V405, P907 HOLLIDAY TW, 1997, J HUM EVOL, V32, P423 HUNTLEY B, 1996, QUATERNARY SCI REV, V15, P591 HUNTLEY B, 2003, QUATERNARY RES, V59, P195 JORIS O, 2003, TRABAJOS PREHISTORIA, V60, P15 KURTEN B, 1958, ACTA ZOOL FENN, P95 KURTEN B, 1968, CAVE BEAR STORY KURTEN B, 1968, PLEISTOCENE MAMMALS LISTER AM, 1987, T TORQUAY NATURAL HI, V19, P189 LISTER AM, 1995, NATURE, V378, P23 LISTER AM, 2004, PHILOS T ROY SOC B, V359, P221 MACDONALD D, 1993, MAMMALS BRITAIN EURO MARKOVA AK, 1992, COURIER FORSCH I SEN, V153, P93 MAYR R, 1970, POPULATIONS SPECEIES MITCHELLJONES AJ, 1999, ATLAS EUROPEAN MAMMA MUSIL R, 2003, NEANDERTHALS MODERN, P167 OREGAN HJ, 2002, J QUATERNARY SCI, V17, P789 PARFITT S, 1999, ENGLISH HERITAGE MON, V16, P197 PARFITT S, 1999, EXCAVATIONS LOWER PA, P111 PETTITT PB, 1999, OXFORD J ARCHAEOLOGY, V18, P217 PLUMMER TW, 1994, J HUM EVOL, V27, P47 POLLARD D, 2003, QUATERNARY RES, V59, P108 POTTS R, 1996, SCIENCE, V273, P922 POTTS R, 1998, EVOL ANTHROPOL, V7, P81 RITCHIE JC, 1982, PALEOECOLOGY BERINGI, P113 RITCHIE JC, 1984, PAST PRESENT VEGETAT SHAPIRO B, 2004, RISE FALL BERINGIAN, V306, P1561 STAFFORD TW, 1999, GEOLOGY, V27, P903 STEWART JR, 1999, SMITHSONIA CONTRIBUT, V89, P159 STEWART JR, 2000, 6 ANN M EUR ASS ARCH STEWART JR, 2001, STAGE 3 PROJ MAMMALI STEWART JR, 2001, TRENDS ECOL EVOL, V16, P608 STEWART JR, 2003, MCDONALD I MONOGRAPH, P103 STEWART JR, 2003, MCDONALD I MONOGRAPH, P221 STEWART JR, 2003, SCIENCE, V299, A825 STEWART JR, 2004, BAR INT SERIES, V1240, P261 STEWART JR, 2004, INT J OSTEOARCHAEOL, V14, P178 STRAUS LG, 2000, ANTIQUITY, V74, P553 STRINGER C, 2003, MCDONALD I MONOGRAPH, P233 STUART AJ, 2002, QUATERNARY SCI REV, V21, P1559 TATTERSALL I, 1995, FOSSIL TRAIL KNOW TH TRINKAUS E, 1981, ASPECTS HUMAN EVOLUT, P187 TRINKAUS E, 1999, J HUM EVOL, V37, P1 UKKONEN P, 1999, J QUATERNARY SCI, V14, P711 VANANDEL TH, 2003, MCDONALD I MONOGRAPH, P257 WILLIS KJ, 2000, SCIENCE, V287, P1406 ZILHAO J, 2003, TRABALHOS ARQUEOLOGI, V33, P313 NR 73 TC 4 J9 QUATERN INT BP 35 EP 46 PY 2005 PD AUG VL 137 GA 932NH UT ISI:000229559900004 ER PT J AU Easterling, WE Mearns, LO Hays, CJ Marx, D TI Comparison of agricultural impacts of climate change calculated from high and low resolution climate change scenarios: Part II. Accounting for adaptation and CO2 direct effects SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 Penn State Univ, Dept Geog, University Pk, PA 16802 USA. Penn State Univ, Ctr Earth Syst Sci, University Pk, PA 16802 USA. Natl Ctr Atmospher Res, Environm & Soc Impacts Grp, Boulder, CO 80307 USA. Univ Nebraska, Sch Nat Resource Sci, Lincoln, NE 68583 USA. Univ Nebraska, Dept Biometry, Lincoln, NE 68583 USA. RP Easterling, WE, Penn State Univ, Dept Geog, University Pk, PA 16802 USA. AB We assert that the simulation of fine-scale crop growth processes and agronomic adaptive management using coarse-scale climate change scenarios lower confidence in regional estimates of agronomic adaptive potential. Specifically, we ask: 1) are simulated yield responses to low-resolution climate change, after adaptation (without and with increased atmospheric CO2), significantly different from simulated yield responses to high-resolution climate change, after adaptation (without and with increased atmospheric CO2)? and 2) does the scale of the soils information, in addition to the scale of the climate change information, affect yields after adaptation? Equilibrium (1 x CO2 versus 2 x CO2) climate changes are simulated at two different spatial resolutions in the Great Plains using the CSIRO general circulation model (low resolution) and the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) RegCM2 regional climate model (high resolution). The EPIC crop model is used to simulate the effects of these climate changes; adaptations in EPIC include earlier planting and switch to longer-season cultivars. Adapted yields (without and with additional carbon dioxide) are compared at the different spatial resolutions. Our findings with respect to question 1 suggest adaptation is more effective in most cases when simulated with a higher resolution climate change than its more generalized low resolution equivalent. We are not persuaded that the use of high resolution climate change information provides insights into the direct effects of higher atmospheric CO2 levels on crops beyond what can be obtained with low resolution information. However, this last finding may be partly an artifact of the agriculturally benign CSIRO and RegCM2 climate changes. With respect to question 2, we found that high resolution details of soil characteristics are particularly important to include in adaptation simulations in regions typified by soils with poor water holding capacity. CR WATSON RT, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, V1, P1 *USDA, 1981, USDA AGR HDB, V296 *USDA, 1994, USDA AGR HDB, V1392 EASTERLING WE, 1992, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V59, P17 EASTERLING WE, 1992, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V59, P53 EASTERLING WE, 1992, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V59, P75 EASTERLING WE, 1993, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V24, P23 EASTERLING WE, 1996, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V80, P1 EASTERLING WE, 1996, CLIMATE RES, V6, P263 EASTERLING WE, 1997, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V7, P337 EASTERLING WE, 1998, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V90, P51 KINIRY JR, 1990, USDA ARS TECH B, V1768, P220 MEARNS LO, 1999, J GEOPHYS RES-ATMOS, V104, P6623 MEARNS LO, 2001, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V51, P131 ROSENBERG NJ, 1992, AGR FOR METEOROL, V59, P35 ROSENZWEIG C, 1989, POTENTIAL EFFECTS GL, V1 ROSENZWEIG C, 1994, NATURE, V367, P133 SCHNEIDER SH, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P203 SMIT B, 1996, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V33, P7 STOCKLE CO, 1992, AGR SYST, V38, P225 WILLIAMS JR, 1984, T ASAE, V27, P129 WILLIAMS JR, 1990, USDA TECH B, V1768, P3 NR 22 TC 10 J9 CLIMATIC CHANGE BP 173 EP 197 PY 2001 PD NOV VL 51 IS 2 GA 479HE UT ISI:000171398300003 ER PT J AU OBrien, G O'Keefe, P Rose, J Wisner, B TI Climate change and disaster management SO DISASTERS LA English DT Article C1 Northumbria Univ, Sch Appl Sci, Newcastle Upon Tyne NE1 8ST, Tyne & Wear, England. ETC UK, N Shields NE30 1NQ, Northd, England. RP OBrien, G, Northumbria Univ, Sch Appl Sci, Newcastle Upon Tyne NE1 8ST, Tyne & Wear, England. AB Climate change, although a natural phenomenon, is accelerated by human activities. Disaster policy response to climate change is dependent on a number of factors, such as readiness to accept the reality of climate change, institutions and capacity, as well as willingness to embed climate change risk assessment and management in development strategies. These conditions do not yet exist universally. A focus that neglects to enhance capacity-building and resilience as a prerequisite for managing climate change risks will, in all likelihood, do little to reduce vulnerability to those risks. Reducing vulnerability is a key aspect of reducing climate change risk. To do so requires a new approach to climate change risk and a change in institutional structures and relationships. A focus on development that neglects to enhance governance and resilience as a prerequisite for managing climate change risks will, in all likelihood, do little to reduce vulnerability to those risks. 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Columbia Univ, Goddard Inst Space Studies, New York, NY 10027 USA. RP Fischer, G, Int Inst Appl Syst Anal, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria. AB A comprehensive assessment of the impacts of climate change on agro-ecosystems over this century is developed, up to 2080 and at a global level, albeit with significant regional detail. To this end an integrated ecological-economic modelling framework is employed, encompassing climate scenarios, agro-ecological zoning information, socio-economic drivers, as well as world food trade dynamics. Specifically, global simulations are performed using the FAO/IIASA agro-ecological zone model, in conjunction with IIASAs global food system model, using climate variables from five different general circulation models, under four different socio-economic scenarios from the intergovernmental panel on climate change. First, impacts of different scenarios of climate change on bio-physical soil and crop growth determinants of yield are evaluated on a 5' X 5' latitude/longitude global grid; second, the extent of potential agricultural land and related potential crop production is computed. The detailed bio-physical results are then fed into an economic analysis, to assess how climate impacts may interact with alternative development pathways, and key trends expected over this century for food demand and production, and trade, as well as key composite indices such as risk of hunger and malnutrition, are computed. This modelling approach connects the relevant bio-physical and socioeconomic variables within a unified and coherent framework to produce a global assessment of food production and security under climate change. The results from the study suggest that critical impact asymmetries due to both climate and socio-economic structures may deepen current production and consumption gaps between developed and developing world; it is suggested that adaptation of agricultural techniques will be central to limit potential damages under climate change. 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KENYON COLL,GAMBIER,OH 43022. NR 0 TC 0 J9 PAP INT STUD SE ASIA SER BP 148 EP 164 PY 1977 IS M41 GA DG897 UT ISI:A1977DG89700011 ER PT J AU Berkes, F Colding, J Folke, C TI Rediscovery of traditional ecological knowledge as adaptive management SO ECOLOGICAL APPLICATIONS LA English DT Article C1 Univ Manitoba, Nat Resources Inst, Winnipeg, MB R3T 2N2, Canada. Univ Stockholm, Dept Syst Ecol, S-10691 Stockholm, Sweden. Royal Swedish Acad Sci, Beijer Int Inst Ecol Econ, S-10405 Stockholm, Sweden. RP Berkes, F, Univ Manitoba, Nat Resources Inst, Winnipeg, MB R3T 2N2, Canada. AB Indigenous groups offer alternative knowledge and perspectives based on their own locally developed practices of resource use. We surveyed the international literature to focus on the role of Traditional Ecological Knowledge in monitoring, responding to, and managing ecosystem processes and functions, with special attention to ecological resilience. Case studies revealed that there exists a diversity of local or traditional practices for ecosystem management. These include multiple species management, resource rotation, succession management, landscape patchiness management, and other ways of responding to and managing pulses and ecological surprises. Social mechanisms behind these traditional practices include a number of adaptations for the generation, accumulation, and transmission of knowledge; the use of local institutions to provide leaders/stewards and rules for social regulation; mechanisms for cultural internalization of traditional practices; and the development of appropriate world views and cultural values. Some traditional knowledge and management systems were characterized by the use of local ecological knowledge to interpret and respond to feedbacks from the environment to guide the direction of resource management. These traditional systems had certain similarities to adaptive management with its emphasis on feedback learning, and its treatment of uncertainty and unpredictability intrinsic to all ecosystems. 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Inst Nacl Antropol & Hist, La Paz 23000, Baja California, Mexico. RP Porcasi, JF, Univ Calif Los Angeles, CotsenInst Archaeol, Zooarchaeol Lab, Los Angeles, CA 90024 USA. AB Synthesis of faunal collections from several archaeological sites on the three southernmost California Channel islands and one in the Cape Region of Baja California reveals a distinctive maritime adaptation more heavily reliant on the capture of pelagic dolphins than on near-shore pinnipeds. Previous reports from other Southern California coastal sites suggest that dolphin hunting may have occurred there but to a lesser extent, While these findings may represent localized adaptations to special conditions on these islands and the Cape Region, they call for reassessment of the conventionally held concept that pinnipeds were invariably the primary mammalian food resource for coastal peoples. Evidence of the intensive use of small cetaceans is antithetical to the accepted models of maritime optimal foraging which assume that shore-based or near-shore marine mammals (i.e., pinnipeds) would be the highest-ranked prey because they were readily encountered and captured. While methods of dolphin hunting remain archaeologically invisible, several island cultures in which dolphin were intensively exploited by people using primitive watercraft and little or no weaponry are presented as possible analogs to a prehistoric Southern California dolphin-hunting technique. These findings also indicate that dolphin hunting was probably a cooperative endeavor among various members of the prehistoric community. 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Royal Swedish Acad Sci, Beijer Int Inst Ecol Econ, Stockholm, Sweden. RP Folke, C, Stockholm Univ, Dept Syst Ecol, CTM, Ctr Transdisciplinary Environm Res, SE-10691 Stockholm, Sweden. AB The resilience perspective is increasingly used as an approach for understanding the dynamics of social-ecological systems. This article presents the origin of the resilience perspective and provides an overview of its development to date. With roots in one branch of ecology and the discovery of multiple basins of attraction in ecosystems in the 1960-1970s, it inspired social and environmental scientists to challenge the dominant stable equilibrium view. The resilience approach emphasizes non-linear dynamics, thresholds, uncertainty and surprise, how periods of gradual change interplay with periods of rapid change and how such dynamics interact across temporal and spatial scales. The history was dominated by empirical observations of ecosystem dynamics interpreted in mathematical models, developing into the adaptive management approach for responding to ecosystem change. Serious attempts to integrate the social dimension is currently taking place in resilience work reflected in the large numbers of sciences involved in explorative studies and new discoveries of linked social-ecological systems. Recent advances include understanding of social processes like, social learning and social memory, mental models and knowledge-system integration, visioning and scenario building, leadership, agents and actor groups, social networks, institutional and organizational inertia and change, adaptive capacity, transformability and systems of adaptive governance that allow for management of essential ecosystem services. (c) 2006 Published by Elsevier Ltd. 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ECOL, V6, P1 WALKER BH, 2004, ECOLOGY SOC, V9, P5 WALKER BH, 1981, J ECOL, V69, P473 WALKER BH, 1992, CONSERV BIOL, V6, P18 WALKER BH, 2006, ECOLOGY SOC, V11, P1 WALKER SM, 2002, J INST BRIT TELECO 1, V3, P19 WALTERS CJ, 1986, ADAPTIVE MANAGEMENT WESTLEY F, 2002, PANARCHY UNDERSTANDI, P333 WESTOBY M, 1989, J RANGE MANAGE, V42, P266 YOUNG OR, 2000, I DIMENSIONS ENV CHA ZIMMERER KS, 1994, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V84, P108 ZIMOV SA, 1995, AM NAT, V146, P765 NR 185 TC 7 J9 GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANGE BP 253 EP 267 PY 2006 PD AUG VL 16 IS 3 GA 073OJ UT ISI:000239752200004 ER PT J AU Kates, RW TI Queries on the human use of the earth SO ANNUAL REVIEW OF ENERGY AND THE ENVIRONMENT LA English DT Review AB The central question of my scientific work has been, what is and ought to be the human use of the earth? It has been pursued collectively, with mentor, colleagues, students, and friends as a set of research questions related to hazards, hunger, and sustainable development. Regarding hazard, I tried to understand why people persist in occupying areas subject to natural and technological hazards and how adaptation made this possible. An extended stay in Africa to research both environment and development led to new queries. Why does hunger persist amid a world of plenty, and what can be done to end it? Can there be a transition to sustainability that over the next two generations would meet human needs and reduce hunger and poverty while maintaining the essential life support systems of the planet? All three themes and the research methods used to pursue them come together in an emerging sustainability science. 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RP Ropke, I, Tech Univ Denmark, Dept Mfg Engn & Management, Matematiktorvet Bldg 303 E, DK-2800 Lyngby, Denmark. AB This paper provides a historical perspective for the discussion on ecological economics as a special field of research. By studying the historical background of ecological economics, the present discussions and tensions inside the field might become easier to understand and to relate to. The study is inspired by other studies of the emergence of new research areas done by sociologists and historians of science, and includes both cognitive and social aspects, macro trends and the role of individuals. The basis for the paper is a combination of literature studies and interviews with key researchers from the field. The story opens with the emergence of the new environmental agenda in the 1960s, which was influenced by the scientific development in biology and ecology. Then it is outlined how the environmental challenge was met by economics in the 1960s. Around 1970, the basic ideas of ecological economics were given modem formulations, but it took a long gestation period from the beginning of the 1970s to the end of the 1980s, before ecological economics took shape. During this gestation period, the personal relationships between the actors were formed, and the meetings that were decisive for the formal establishment of ecological economics took place. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V All rights reserved. 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Univ Vermont, Rubenstein Sch Environm & Nat Resouces, Burlington, VT 05401 USA. RP Khagram, S, Univ Washington, Seattle, WA 98195 USA. AB A broadening research program focused on environment and security emerged over the past 30 years. But the meaning and operationalization of environment and security have been an implicit and increasingly explicit part of the scholarly debate. Approaches range from the more specific focus on the linkages between environmental change and violent (deadly) conflict, the possible role of environmental conservation, cooperation, and collaboration in promoting peace, and the broader focus on potential relationships between environmental change and human security (understood as freedom from both violent conflict and physical want). In addition to the different conceptions of environment and security, the type and direction of causal relationships among different factors continue to be a focus of research. With respect to the environment and violent conflict, which constitute the largest explicit research stream on environment and security, the debate has centered on whether and why environmental scarcity, abundance, or dependence might cause militarized conflict. Less research has been conducted on the environmental effects of violent conflict and war or traditional security institutions such as militaries and military-industrial complexes. Rigorous research on the consequences of peace or human security for the environment is virtually nonexistent. 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Clark Univ, George Perkins Marsh Inst, Worcester, MA 01602 USA. East West Ctr, Honolulu, HI 96848 USA. Macro Int, Demog & Hlth Res Div, Calverton, MD 20705 USA. Univ N Carolina, Carolina Populat Ctr, Chapel Hill, NC 27516 USA. Univ N Carolina, Dept Sociol, Chapel Hill, NC 27599 USA. Univ N Carolina, Dept Geog, Chapel Hill, NC 27599 USA. RP Turner, BL, Clark Univ, Grad Sch Geog, Worcester, MA 01602 USA. AB Land-change science has emerged as a foundational element of global environment change and sustainability science. It seeks to understand the human and environment dynamics that give rise to changed land uses and covers, not only in terms of their type and magnitude but their location as well. This focus requires the integration of social, natural, and geographical information sciences. Each of these broad research communities has developed different ways to enter the land-change problem, each with different means of treating the locational specificity of the critical variables, such as linking the land manager to the parcel being managed. The resulting integration encounters various data, methodological, and analytical problems, especially those concerning aggregation and inference, land-use pixel links, data and measurement, and remote sensing analysis. Here, these integration problems, which hinder comprehensive understanding and theory development, are addressed. Their recognition and resolution are required for the sustained development of land-change science. 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Resources Future Inc, Washington, DC 20036 USA. RP Sedjo, R, Ohio State Univ, AED Econ, 2120 Fyffe Rd, Columbus, OH 43210 USA. AB This paper examines potential climate change impacts in North American timber markets. The results indicate that climate change could increase productivity in forests in North America, increase productivity in forests globally, and reduce timber prices. North American consumers generally will gain from the potential changes, but producers could lose welfare. If dieback resulting from additional forest fires, increased pest infestation, or storm damage increases appreciably and has market effects, consumers will gain less and producers will lose more than if climate change simply increases the annual flow of timber products by raising forest productivity. Annual producers' surplus losses from climate change in the North American timber sector are estimated to range from $1.4 - $2.1 billion per year on average over the next century, with the higher number resulting from potential large-scale dieback. Within North America, existing studies suggest that producers in northern regions are less susceptible to climate change impacts than producers in southern regions because many climate and ecological models suggest that climates become dryer in the U.S. South. CR *VEMAP MEMB, 1995, GLOBAL BIOGEOCHEMICA, V9, P407 CLAUSSEN M, 1996, CLIM DYNAM, V12, P371 DALE VH, 2001, BIOSCIENCE, V51, P723 HAXELTINE A, 1996, GLOBAL BIOGEOCHEM CY, V10, P693 HAYNES R, 2003, PNWGTR560 USDA FOR S IRLAND LC, 2001, BIOSCIENCE, V51, P753 IVERSON LR, 2001, ECOSYSTEMS, V4, P186 JOYCE LA, 1995, J BIOGEOGR, V22, P703 JOYCE LJ, 2001, CLIMAGE CHANGE IMPAC, CH17 LEMMEN DS, 2004, CLIMATE CHANGE IMPAC MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 PEREZGARCIA J, 1997, EC CARBON SEQUESTRAT SCHLESINGER ME, 1997, PUBLICATION CLIMATE SHUGART H, 2003, FORESTS GLOBAL CLIMA SOHNGEN B, 1998, AM ECON REV, V88, P689 SOHNGEN B, 2001, GLOBAL WARMING AM EC, CH4 SOHNGEN B, 2001, J AGR RESOUR ECON, V26, P326 NR 17 TC 3 J9 FOREST CHRON BP 669 EP 674 PY 2005 PD SEP-OCT VL 81 IS 5 GA 979VW UT ISI:000232974100026 ER PT J AU Woodward, A Hales, S Litidamu, N Phillips, D Martin, J TI Protecting human health in a changing world: the role of social and economic development SO BULLETIN OF THE WORLD HEALTH ORGANIZATION LA English DT Article C1 Wellington Sch Med, Dept Publ Hlth, Sch Med, Wellington S, New Zealand. Univ Otago, Wellington Sch Med, Wellington, New Zealand. Fiji Sch Med, Sch Publ Hlth & Primary Care, Suva, Fiji. WHO, Dept Hlth Sustainable Dev, CH-1211 Geneva, Switzerland. RP Woodward, A, Wellington Sch Med, Dept Publ Hlth, Sch Med, POB 7343, Wellington S, New Zealand. AB The biological and physical environment of the planet is changing at an unprecedented rate as a result of human activity, and these changes may have an enormous impact on human health. One of the goals of human development is to protect health in the face of rapid environmental change, but we often fail to do this. The aim in th is paper is to distinguish between socioeconomic aspects of development that a re likely to be protective and those that are likely to increase vulnerability (the capacity for loss resulting from environmental change). Examples include climate change in the Pacific. We conclude that protecting human health in a changing world requires us to take steps to minimize harmful change wherever possible, and at the same time to be prepared for surprises. The goals of mitigation (reducing or preventing change) and adaptation (response to change) are not mutually exclusive. in fact, steps to make populations more resilient in the face of change are often similar to those that are needed to lighten the load on the environment. We need social policies that convert economic growth into human development. Wider application of sustainable development concepts is part of the solution. In particular, there is a need to promote health as an essential asset of poor and vulnerable populations. it is their key to productivity and to surviving shocks; it is also the key to achieving broader development goals such as universal education. For these reasons it is in the interests of all sectors - economic, social and environmental - to play their particular roles in protecting and improving health. CR *ESCAP, 1997, ESCAP POP DAT SHEET *INT FED RED CROSS, 1996, WORLD DIS REP 1996 *INT FED RED CROSS, 1999, WORLD DIS REP *STAT NZ, 1999, INC *UN DEV PROGR, 1999, HUM DEV REP 1999 *US BUR STAT, 1999, FIJ CENS POP HOUS *WHO, 1997, WHO REG PUBL E, V72 *WORLD BANK, 1999, WORLD DEV REP 1999 2 *WORLD COMM ENV DE, 1987, OUR COMM FUT DANIELS N, 1999, DAEDALUS, V128, P215 DENNIS R, 2000, RECENT OUTBREAK FIRE DOWNING TE, 1999, DROUGHT HALES S, 1999, ENVIRON HEALTH PERSP, V107, P99 HALES S, 1999, LANCET, V354, P2047 HEARNDEN M, 1999, NZ PUBLIC HLTH REPOR, V6, P25 KALKSTEIN LS, 1997, ENVIRON HEALTH PERSP, V105, P84 KAPLAN G, 1996, BRIT MED J, V312, P1004 KAWACHI I, 1999, HEALTH SERV RES 2, V34, P215 LEAKEY R, 1996, 6 EXTINCTION BIODIVE MCMICHAEL AJ, 1993, PLANETARY OVERLOAD G MUSTARD JF, 1996, HLTH SOCIAL ORG, P303 NIGG JM, 1995, WELLINGTON QUAKE CHA, P81 NIMURA N, 1999, CLIM RES, V12, P137 OKE TR, 1987, BOUNDARY LAYER CLIMA OLSTHOORN AA, 1999, CLIMATE CHANGE RISK, P221 PELLING M, 1998, J INT DEV, V10, P469 PELLING M, 1999, GEOFORUM, V30, P249 SCHWEITHELM J, 1998, OVERVIEW INDONESIAS SEN AK, 1981, POVERTY FAMINES ESSA, V1, P1 SEN AK, 2000, FAR E EC REV 0127 WATSON RT, 1998, REGIONAL IMPACTS CLI, V1, P1 WATSON RT, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, V1, P1 WESLEYSMITH T, 1992, CONTEMP PACIFIC, V4, P245 WOODS R, 1984, URBAN DIS MORTALITY, P19 WOODWARD A, IN PRESS J EPIDEMIOL WOODWARD A, 1998, CLIMATE RES, V11, P31 NR 36 TC 6 J9 BULL WHO BP 1148 EP 1155 PY 2000 VL 78 IS 9 GA 353FJ UT ISI:000089263900009 ER PT J AU Lobell, DB Field, CB Cahill, KN Bonfils, C TI Impacts of future climate change on California perennial crop yields: Model projections with climate and crop uncertainties SO AGRICULTURAL AND FOREST METEOROLOGY LA English DT Article C1 Lawrence Livermore Natl Lab, Energy & Environm Directorate, Livermore, CA 94550 USA. Carnegie Inst Washington, Dept Global Ecol, Stanford, CA 94305 USA. Stanford Univ, Interdisciplinary Grad Program Environm & Resourc, Stanford, CA 94305 USA. Univ Calif, Sch Nat Sci, Merced, CA 95346 USA. RP Lobell, DB, Lawrence Livermore Natl Lab, Energy & Environm Directorate, POB 808,L-103, Livermore, CA 94550 USA. AB Most research on the agricultural impacts of climate change has focused on the major annual crops, yet perennial cropping systems are less adaptable and thus potentially more susceptible to damage. In regions where perennial crops are economically and culturally important, improved assessments of yield responses to future climate are needed to prioritize adaptation strategies. These impact assessments, in turn, must rely on climate and crop models that contain often poorly defined uncertainties. We evaluated the impact of climate change on six major perennial crops in California: wine grapes, almonds, table grapes, oranges, walnuts, and avocados. Outputs from multiple climate models were used to evaluate climate uncertainty, while multiple statistical crop models, derived by resampling historical databases, were used to address crop response uncertainties. We find that, despite these uncertainties, climate change in California is very likely to put downward pressure on yields of almonds, walnuts, avocados, and table grapes by 2050. Without CO2 fertilization or adaptation measures, projected losses range from 0 to > 40% depending on the crop and the trajectory of climate change. Climate change uncertainty generally had a larger impact on projections than crop model uncertainty, although the latter was substantial for several crops. Opportunities for expansion into cooler regions were identified, but this adaptation would require substantial investments and may be limited by non-climatic constraints. Given the long time scales for growth and production of orchards and vineyards (similar to 30 years), climate change should be an important factor in selecting perennial varieties and deciding whether and where perennials should be planted. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. CR *CA AGR STAT SERV, 2004, CAL AGR COMM DAT *CAL AGR STAT SERV, 2004, CAL AGR STAT 2003 OV *IPCC, 2001, INT PAN CLIM CHANG W ADAMS RM, 1990, NATURE, V345, P219 AGGARWAL PK, 2002, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V52, P331 AINSWORTH EA, 2005, NEW PHYTOL, V165, P351 BINDI M, 1996, CLIMATE RES, V7, P213 BINDI M, 2001, EUR J AGRON, V14, P145 BURTON I, 2005, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V70, P191 CHALLINOR AJ, 2003, J APPL METEOROL, V42, P175 EFRON B, 1983, AM STAT, V37, P36 FISCHER G, 2005, PHILOS T ROY SOC B, V360, P2067 HAYHOE K, 2004, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V101, P12422 IDSO SB, 2001, ENVIRON EXP BOT, V46, P147 JONES GV, 2005, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V73, P319 KOSKI V, 1996, EUPHYTICA, V92, P235 LOBELL DB, IN PRESS CLIM CHANGE MAURER EP, 2005, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V32 MEARNS LO, 1999, J GEOPHYS RES-ATMOS, V104, P6623 MJELDE JW, 2000, J APPL METEOROL, V39, P67 NAKICENOVIC N, 2000, SPECIAL REPORT EMISS PARRY ML, 2005, PHILOS T ROY SOC B, V360, P2125 PARRY ML, 2004, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V14, P53 REILLY JM, 1999, WORLD BANK RES OBSER, V14, P295 REILLY JM, 2003, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V57, P43 ROSENZWEIG C, 1994, NATURE, V367, P133 ROSENZWEIG C, 1998, CLIMATE CHANGE GLOBA SCHNEIDER SH, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P203 SNYDER MA, 2002, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V29 TUBIELLO FN, 2002, CLIMATE RES, V20, P259 WHITE MA, 2006, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V103, P11217 WOOD AW, 2002, J GEOPHYS RES-ATMOS, V107 NR 32 TC 0 J9 AGR FOREST METEOROL BP 208 EP 218 PY 2006 PD DEC 20 VL 141 IS 2-4 GA 128PG UT ISI:000243669500010 ER PT J AU Belliveau, S Smit, B Bradshaw, B TI Multiple exposures and dynamic vulnerability: Evidence from the grape industry in the Okanagan Valley, Canada SO GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS LA English DT Review C1 Univ Guelph, Dept Geog, Guelph, ON N1G 2W1, Canada. RP Belliveau, S, Univ Guelph, Dept Geog, Guelph, ON N1G 2W1, Canada. AB This paper assesses the vulnerability of grape growers and winery operators in the Okanagan Valley, British Columbia to climate variability and change, in the context of other sources of risk. Through interviews and focus groups, producers identified the climatic and non-climatic risks relevant to them and the strategies employed to manage these risks. The results show that the presence of multiple exposures affects the way in which producers are vulnerable to climate change. Producers are vulnerable to conditions that not only affect crop yield, but also affect their ability to compete in or sell to the market. Their sensitivity to these conditions is influenced in part by institutional factors such as trade liberalization and a "markup-free delivery" policy. Producers' ability to adapt or cope with these risks varies depending on such factors as the availability of resources and technology, and access to government programmes. Producers will likely face challenges associated with the supply of water for irrigation due to a combination of climatic changes and changing demographics in the Okanagan Valley, which in turn affect their ability to adapt to climatic conditions. Finally, adaptations made by producers can change the nature of the operation and its vulnerability, demonstrating the dynamic nature of vulnerability. (C) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 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CHANGE, V43, P601 WILHELMI OV, 2002, NAT HAZARDS, V25, P37 WILSON K, 1996, THESIS U BRIT COLUMB WINKLER JA, 2002, J GREAT LAKES RES, V28, P608 WINTER M, 2000, J RURAL STUD, V16, P47 YOHE GW, 2002, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V12, P25 ZIERVOGEL G, 2003, AREA, V35, P403 NR 128 TC 0 J9 GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANGE BP 364 EP 378 PY 2006 PD OCT VL 16 IS 4 GA 105MG UT ISI:000242033600006 ER PT J AU Luo, QY Bellotti, W Williams, M Bryan, B TI Potential impact of climate change on wheat yield in South Australia SO AGRICULTURAL AND FOREST METEOROLOGY LA English DT Article C1 Univ Adelaide, Dept Geog & Environm Studies, Adelaide, SA 5005, Australia. Univ Adelaide, Sch Agr & Wine, Madison, WI 53711 USA. CSIRO, Policy & Econ Res Unit, Glen Osmond, SA 5064, Australia. RP Luo, QY, Univ Adelaide, Dept Geog & Environm Studies, Adelaide, SA 5005, Australia. AB Refined and improved climate change scenarios have been applied in this study to quantify the possible impacts of future climate change on South Australian wheat yield with probability attached. This study used the APSIM-Wheat module and information drawn from the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) and nine climate models for 2080. A wheat yield response surface has been constructed within 80 climate change scenarios. The most likely wheat yield changes have been defined under combinations of changes in regional rainfall, regional temperature and atmospheric CO2, concentration (CO2). Median grain yield is projected to decrease across all locations from 13.5 to 32% under the most likely climate change scenarios. This has economic and social implications from local to national levels. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. CR *CSIRO, 1996, CLIM CHANG SCEN AUST *CSIRO, 2001, CLIM CHANG PROJ AUST *IPCC, 2000, SPEC REP EM SCEN SUM MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 BRKLACICH M, 1995, ASA SPEC PUBL, P147 DELECOLLE R, 1995, ASA SPEC PUBL, V59, P241 HOWDEN SM, 1999, 9913 CSIRO, P24 HOWDEN SM, 1999, 9914 CSIRO AUSTR GRE, P51 HOWDEN SM, 1999, GLOBAL CHANGE IMPACT HOWDEN SM, 1999, MODSIM99 P INT C MOD JONES RN, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P403 KEATING BA, 2003, EUR J AGRON, V18, P267 LUO Q, 2003, THESIS U ADELAIDE LUO QY, 2003, AGR SYST, V77, P173 MEARNS LO, 1995, ASA SPEC PUBL, V59, P123 MENZHULIN GV, 1995, ASA SPEC PUBL, P275 REYENGA PJ, 1997, MODSIM 99 P INT C MO REYENGA PJ, 1999, ENVIRON MODELL SOFTW, V14, P297 SEINO H, 1995, ASA SPEC PUBL, P293 SMITH JB, 1996, VULNERABILITY ADAPTI, P366 TUBIELLO FN, 1995, AGR SYST, V49, P135 YUNUSA IAM, 2004, AUST J EXP AGR, V44, P787 NR 22 TC 0 J9 AGR FOREST METEOROL BP 273 EP 285 PY 2005 PD OCT 3 VL 132 IS 3-4 GA 984MP UT ISI:000233309300009 ER PT J AU Lowe, TD Lorenzoni, I TI Danger is all around: Eliciting expert perceptions for managing climate change through a mental models approach SO GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS LA English DT Article C1 Univ E Anglia, Sch Environm Sci, Zuckerman Inst Connect Environm Res, Tryndall Ctr Climate Change Res, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. Univ E Anglia, Sch Environm Sci, Zuckerman Inst Connect Environm Res, Ctr Environm Risk, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. RP Lowe, TD, Univ E Anglia, Sch Environm Sci, Zuckerman Inst Connect Environm Res, Tryndall Ctr Climate Change Res, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. AB It has long been acknowledged that understandings of risk are influenced by external or 'objective' assessments, and by internal or 'subjective' value judgements. In-depth research has been undertaken on how lay people perceive climate change and related risks, whereas work on expert opinions is more limited. This paper reports on 22 'expert' interpretations elicited through a mental models approach, and encapsulated in a 'meta'-influence diagram, denoting three conceptualisations of danger in relation to climate change: (i) human influence upon the climate system; (ii) impacts upon natural and human communities; and (iii) threat to the status quo, especially in the form of mitigation measures and related costs. These conceptualisations raise questions about how experts bring to bear their knowledge, values and understanding of climatic and social systems in articulating such discourses. This paper also discusses the implications of such diverse perspectives on managing climate change. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR ARNELL NW, 2005, RISK ANAL, V25, P1419 BARKE RP, 1993, RISK ANAL, V13, P425 BARKER T, 2005, 77 U E ANGL SCH ENV BEHRENS EG, 1983, TEX LAW REV, V62, P361 BICKERSTAFF K, 2004, UNPUB PUBLIC PERCEPT BLACK R, 2005, BBC NEWS ONLINE 0213 BORD RJ, 1998, CLIMATE RES, V11, P75 BOSTROM A, 1994, RISK ANAL, V14, P959 BRAY D, 1999, B AM METEOROL SOC, V80, P439 BRAY D, 2001, CLIMATE RES, V19, P69 BREAKWELL GM, 2001, J RISK RES, V4, P341 BRECHIN SR, 2003, INT J SOCIOLOGY SOCI, V23, P106 BURTON I, 2002, CLIM POLICY, V2, P145 CALDEIRA K, 2003, SCIENCE, V299, P2052 COOK G, 2004, DISCOURSE SOC, V15, P433 COOKE RM, 2004, J RISK RES, V7, P643 COX P, 2004, RISK ANAL, V23, P311 DESSAI S, 2004, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V64, P11 DUNLAP RE, 1998, INT SOCIOL, V13, P473 ELZINGA A, 1997, AMBIO, V26, P72 EPSTEIN S, 1994, AM PSYCHOL, V49, P709 FEIGENBAUM EA, 1979, EXPERT SYSTEMS MICRO FINUCANE ML, 2006, J RISK RES, V9, P141 FOUCAULT M, 1982, M FOUCAULT STRUCTURA, P208 GERRARD S, 2000, ENV SCI ENV MANAGEME, P435 GLOVER J, 2005, GUARDIAN UNLIMI 0621 JOHNSON C, 2003, CRISES CATALYSTS ADA KASPERSON RE, 1988, RISK ANAL, V8, P177 KATES RW, 2003, ENVIRONMENT, V45, P12 KEMPTON W, 1991, SOC NATUR RESOUR, V4, P331 KEMPTON W, 1993, ANNU REV ENERG ENV, V18, P217 LOMBORG B, 2001, SKEPTICAL ENV MEASUR LORENZONI I, IN PRESS PUBLIC VIEW LORENZONI I, 2003, THESIS U E ANGLIA NO LORENZONI I, 2005, 28 U E ANGL SCH ENV LORENZONI I, 2005, RISK ANAL, V25, P1387 LORENZONI I, 2006, J RISK RES, V9, P265 LOWE T, IN PRESS PUBLIC UNDE MACMILLAN DC, 2006, ANIM CONSERV, V9, P11 MASTRANDREA M, 2001, CLIM POLICY, V1, P433 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 MCDANIELS T, 1996, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V6, P159 MORGAN MG, 1990, UNCERTAINTY GUIDE DE MORGAN MG, 1995, ENVIRON SCI TECHNOL, V29, P468 MORGAN MG, 2001, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V49, P279 MORGAN MG, 2002, RISK COMMUNICATION M NICHOLSONCOLE S, 2004, THESIS U E ANGLIA NO NORDHAUS WD, 1994, AM SCI, V82, P45 ONEILL BC, 2002, SCIENCE, V296, P1971 OPPENHEIMER M, 2005, RISK ANAL, V5, P1399 PALMGREN CR, 2004, ENVIRON SCI TECHNOL, V38, P6441 PARRY ML, 1996, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V6, P1 PIDGEON N, 1992, RISK ANAL PERCEPTION, CH5 PIDGEON N, 2003, SOCIAL AMPLIFICATION PIDGEON NF, 1998, ACTA PSYCHOL, V68, P355 POORTINGA W, 2003, PUBLIC PERCEPTIONS R RAHMSTORF S, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V46, P247 RAYNER S, 1997, NATURE, V390, P332 READ D, 1994, RISK ANAL, V14, P971 RODERICK P, 2004, GUARDIAN NEWSPA 1215, P12 SCHNEIDER SH, 2003, JUST AD CLIM CHANG I SJOBERG L, 2000, RISK ANAL, V20, P1 SLOVIC P, 2000, PERCEPTION RISK SLOVIC P, 2004, RISK ANAL, V24, P311 TOYNBEE P, 2005, GUARDIAN UNLIMI 0525 TRAN M, 2004, GUARDIAN UNLIMI 0928 VONKRAUSS MPK, 2004, RISK ANAL, V24, P1515 WATSON RT, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 WRIGHT G, 1987, DECIS SUPPORT SYST, V3, P13 NR 69 TC 0 J9 GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANGE BP 131 EP 146 PY 2007 PD FEB VL 17 IS 1 GA 149YG UT ISI:000245182200013 ER PT J AU Niemeyer, S Petts, J Hobson, K TI Rapid climate change and society: Assessing responses and thresholds SO RISK ANALYSIS LA English DT Article C1 Australian Natl Univ, Res Sch Social Sci, Canberra, ACT 0200, Australia. Univ Birmingham, Sch Geog Earth & Environm Sci, Birmingham B15 2TT, W Midlands, England. Australian Natl Univ, Dept Human Geog, Res Sch Pacific & Asian Studies, Canberra, ACT 0200, Australia. RP Niemeyer, S, Australian Natl Univ, Res Sch Social Sci, Canberra, ACT 0200, Australia. AB Assessing the social risks associated with climate change requires an understanding of how humans will respond because it affects how well societies will adapt. In the case of rapid or dangerous climate change, of particular interest is the potential for these responses to cross thresholds beyond which they become maladaptive. To explore the possibility of such thresholds, a series of climate change scenarios were presented to U.K. participants whose subjective responses were recorded via interviews and surveyed using Q methodology. The results indicate an initially adaptive response to climate warming followed by a shift to maladaptation as the magnitude of change increases. Beyond this threshold, trust in collective action and institutions was diminished, negatively impacting adaptive capacity. Climate cooling invoked a qualitatively different response, although this may be a product of individuals being primed for warming because it has dominated public discourse. The climate change scenarios used in this research are severe by climatological standards. In reality, the observed responses might occur at a lower rate of change. Whatever the case, analysis of subjectivity has revealed potential for maladaptive human responses, constituting a dangerous or rapid climate threshold within the social sphere. CR *NRC, 2002, ABRU CLIM CHANG IN S ADGER WN, 2000, PROG HUM GEOG, V24, P347 ADGER WN, 2001, LIVING ENV CHANGE SO BANDURA A, 1989, ANN CHILD DEV, V6, P1 BASHER RE, 2001, MITIGATION ADAPTATIO, V6, P227 BATTERBURY S, 2001, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V11, P1 BECK U, 1994, REFLEXIVE MODERNISAT BERK RA, 1999, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V41, P413 BOHLE HG, 1994, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V4, P37 BRONNIMANN S, 2002, CLIMATE RES, V22, P87 BROWN SR, 1970, PSYCHOL REC, V20, P179 BROWN SR, 1980, POLIT SUBJECTIVITY A BROWNE RB, 1993, J AM CULTURE, V16, P91 BULKELEY H, 2000, PUBLIC UNDERST SCI, V9, P313 CARTER TR, 1994, IPCC TECHN GUID ASS COTTLE CE, 1980, OPERANT SUBJECTIVITY, V3, P58 DESSAI S, 2003, DEFINING EXPERIENCIN DIETZ T, 2003, SCIENCE, V302, P1907 DUNLAP RE, 1996, KOLNER Z SOZIOLOGIE, V36, P193 ELSTER J, 1986, MULTIPLE SELF GOWDA MVR, 1997, B AM METEOROL SOC, V78, P2232 HANDMER JW, 2001, MITIGATION ADAPTATIO, V6, P267 HANNIGAN JA, 1995, ENV SOCIOLOGY SOCIAL HARDIN R, 1993, POLIT SOC, V21, P505 HARRE R, 1994, DISCURSIVE MIND HARRISON PA, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE NATUR HULME M, 2003, PHILOS T ROY SOC A, V361, P2001 KEMPTON W, 1991, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V1, P183 KLEIN RJT, 2001, MITIGATION ADAPTATIO, V6, P189 KROSNICK J, 1995, INT STUD QUART, V39, P535 KROSNICK JA, 2000, PUBLIC UNDERST SCI, V9, P239 LEARY NA, 2001, MITIGATION ADAPTATIO, V6, P307 LUHMANN N, 2000, REALITY MASS MEDIA MAZMANIAN D, 1981, ENVIRON BEHAV, V13, P361 MAZUR A, 1998, INT SOCIOL, V13, P457 MONROE AD, 1979, AM POLITICS Q, V7, P3 NIEMEYER S, 2004, 0401 U BIRM CTR ENV PALUTIKOF JP, 2004, CLIMATE RES, V26, P43 PARSON EA, 2003, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V57, P9 PELLING M, IN PRESS GLOBAL ENV PELLING M, 1998, J INT DEV, V10, P469 PERRINGS C, 2003, PHILOS T ROY SOC A, V361, P2043 PETTS J, 2001, 3292001 RHMSTORF S, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V4, P247 RIZZELLO S, 2002, CONSTITUTIONAL POLIT, V13, P197 RYDIN Y, 1999, ENVIRON VALUE, V8, P467 SCHWARTZ SH, 1981, ALTRUISM HELP BEHAV, P189 STEHR N, 1997, CLIMATE RES, V8, P163 STEPHENSON W, 1953, STUDY BEHAV Q TECHNI TOTH FL, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V46, P225 UNGAR S, 2000, PUBLIC UNDERST SCI, V9, P297 UZZELL DL, 2000, J ENVIRON PSYCHOL, V26, P307 VELLEMAN PF, 1993, AM STAT, V47, P1 VELLINGA M, 2002, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V54, P251 WILLIAMSON OE, 2000, J ECON LIT, V38, P595 NR 55 TC 1 J9 RISK ANAL BP 1443 EP 1456 PY 2005 PD DEC VL 25 IS 6 GA 996YF UT ISI:000234211500008 ER PT J AU Lopez, MV Mendoza, TC Genio, ER TI Farmers' adaptive strategies in rice-based farming systems in Masantol, Pampanga, Philippines SO JOURNAL OF SUSTAINABLE AGRICULTURE LA English DT Article C1 Univ Philippines Los Banos, Dept Agron, Coll Agr, Laguna 4030, Philippines. World Bank, Washington, DC 20433 USA. RP Lopez, MV, 11834 St Andrews Pl, Loma Linda, CA 92354 USA. AB A study was conducted to determine the main constraints in rice-based farming systems: their causes and adverse effects as influenced by El Nino and La Nina phenomena and identify farmers' strategies to alleviate those constraints. Two constraints in the study area were flooding and saline water intrusion caused by various biophysical factors. The constraints resulted in interrelated problems of low yield and crop intensity, high risk of failure, seasonal availability of employment, high cost of production, and ultimately in low income to farmers. To overcome constraints, alleviate problems and increase potentials in rice-based farming systems, farmers evolved the following adaptive strategies: (1) empoldering; (2) installation of peripheral nets around the farm; (3) pumping out of water from the rice fields; (4) raising adaptable aquatic species of animals; (5) utilization of locally available biological resources; and (6) high level of farmer to farmer communication. CR 1990, MUNICIPAL DEV PLAN *CSR FAO, 1983, AGOFINS76006 MAOUNDP BRIGHT M, 1995, ILEIA NEWSLETTER DEC, P10 FATIMSON T, 1996, ILEIA NEWSLETTER DEC, P24 MCCLUNG G, 1985, SOIL SCI, V139, P405 MCCORMICK RW, 1980, SOIL BIOL BIOCHEM, V12, P153 OREJAS T, 1998, PHILIPPINE DAILY INQ, V13, P16 RAO DLN, 1994, SALINITY MANAGEMENT, P34 SINDHU MA, 1967, PLANT SOIL, V27, P468 SINGH BR, 1969, SOIL SCI SOC AM J, V33, P557 SUYARDONO B, 1990, SURJAN SYSTEM SUSTAI WESTERMAN RL, 1974, SOIL SCI SOC AM J, V38, P602 WRIGLEY G, 1981, TROPICAL AGR DEV PRO NR 13 TC 0 J9 J SUSTAINABLE AGR BP 5 EP 25 PY 2004 VL 24 IS 1 GA 842JC UT ISI:000222999100002 ER PT J AU Mimura, N TI Vulnerability of island countries in the South Pacific to sea level rise and climate change SO CLIMATE RESEARCH LA English DT Article C1 Ibaraki Univ, Ctr Water Environm Studies, Ibaraki, Osaka 3168511, Japan. RP Mimura, N, Ibaraki Univ, Ctr Water Environm Studies, Ibaraki, Osaka 3168511, Japan. AB An assessment of the vulnerability to sea level rise and climate change was performed for island countries in the South Pacific (Tonga, Fiji, Samoa, and Tuvalu) under the collaboration of Japanese experts and the South Pacific Regional Environment Programme. A combination of experience-based and scientific methods were developed to reveal the overall vulnerability of and possible impacts on the coastal zone sectors. The studies identified the common impacts on and vulnerability of these countries. Inundation and flooding are the common threats to these islands because, of their low-lying setting; the problem is exacerbated by the social trends of population growth and migration to main islands, in particular to the capital cities. Other threats include beach erosion, saltwater intrusion, and impacts on the infrastructure and coastal society. For the island countries, the response to sea level rise and climate change focuses on adaptation rather than on reduction of greenhouse gas emissions (that is, mitigation). Based on the results of the vulnerability assessment, the concept of and options for adaptation are also discussed. CR *IPCC CZMS, 1991, COMM METH ASS VULN S *IPCC WG3, 1990, CLIM CHANG IPCC RESP WATSON RT, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, V1, P1 FIFITA P, 1992, P IPCC CZMS WORKSH R, P119 KAY R, 1993, ASSESSMENT COASTAL V KAY RC, 1993, VULNERABILITY ASSESS, P213 MACIVER DC, 1998, ADAPTATION CLIMATE V MIMURA N, 1997, J COASTAL RES, V24, P117 MIMURA N, 1998, J COASTAL RES, V14, P37 NUNN PD, 1993, ASSESSMENT COASTAL V NUNN PD, 1994, ASSESSMENT COASTAL V NUNN PD, 1996, COASTAL VULNERABILIT NUNN PD, 1997, J COASTAL RES, V24, P133 OHNO E, 1996, P 5 WORLD C REG SCI SEM G, 1996, COASTAL VULNERABILIT YAMADA K, 1995, J GLOBAL ENV ENG, V1, P101 NR 16 TC 0 J9 CLIMATE RES BP 137 EP 143 PY 1999 PD AUG 27 VL 12 IS 2-3 GA V3096 UT ISI:000171723000011 ER PT J AU Toman, MA TI Values in the economics of climate change SO ENVIRONMENTAL VALUES LA English DT Article C1 RAND Corp, Washington, DC USA. RP Toman, M, RAND Corp, Washington, DC USA. AB Economics has played an important role in assessing climate change impacts, and the effects of various individual and policy response strategies. Proponents of a key role for economics in analysis of climate change policies and goals argue that its capacity to incorporate and compare a variety of costs and benefits makes it uniquely useful for normative assessment. Critics of economic analysis of climate change have questioned not only its empirical capacities, but also its fundamental usefulness given some of the important but often implicit assumptions on which it is based. After reviewing this debate and its implications for public policy on climate change, the paper sketches a way in which more technical economic analysis and public dialogue might be combined. CR *UNFCCC, 1999, UNEPIUC9910 UNFCCC *UNFCCC, 1999, UNEPIUC992 UNFCCC AZAR C, 1996, ECOL ECON, V19, P169 BARRETT S, 2003, ENV STATECRAFT STRAT BLACKMAN A, 2003, THEORY PRACTICE COMM, P199 GARDINER SM, 2004, ETHICS, V114, P555 HOWARTH RB, 1996, CONTEMP ECON POLICY, V14, P100 HOWARTH RB, 2005, PERSPECTIVES CLIMATE, P99 JAMIESON D, 2005, PERSPECTIVES CLIMATE, P217 MANNE AS, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE INTEG MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 MENDELSOHN R, 1994, AM ECON REV, V84, P753 MENDELSOHN R, 1999, GREENING GLOBAL WARM METZ B, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 NORDHAUS WD, 1993, RESOUR ENERGY ECON, V15, P27 NORTON BG, 1992, UNITY ENV NORTON BG, 1997, LAND ECON, V73, P553 PORTNEY PR, 1999, DISCOUNTING INTEGENE ROSE A, 1993, RESOUR ENERGY ECON, V15, P117 ROUGHGARDEN T, 1999, ENERG POLICY, V27, P415 SCHELLING TC, 1997, FOREIGN AFF, V76, P8 SCHELLING TC, 2002, FOREIGN AFF, V81, P2 SPASH CL, 2005, GREENHOUSE EC VALUES TOMAN MA, 1994, LAND ECON, V70, P399 TOMAN MA, 1999, VALUATION ENV, P59 TOMAN MA, 2004, PAINTING WHITE HOUSE TOMAN MA, 2005, PERSPECTIVES CLIMATE, P75 WEITZMAN ML, 1998, J ENVIRON ECON MANAG, V36, P201 WEYANT J, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, P366 WIGLEY TML, 1996, NATURE, V379, P240 NR 30 TC 3 J9 ENVIRON VALUE BP 365 EP 379 PY 2006 PD AUG VL 15 IS 3 GA 089VG UT ISI:000240908900011 ER PT J AU Ruth, M Lin, AC TI Regional energy demand and adaptations to climate change: Methodology and application to the state of Maryland, USA SO ENERGY POLICY LA English DT Article C1 Sch Publ Policy, Environm Policy Program, Hyattsville, MD 20782 USA. RP Ruth, M, Sch Publ Policy, Environm Policy Program, 3139 Van Munching Hall, Hyattsville, MD 20782 USA. AB This paper explores potential impacts of climate change on natural gas, electricity and heating oil use by the residential and commercial sectors in the state of Maryland, USA. Time series analysis is used to quantify historical temperature-energy demand relationships. A dynamic computer model uses those relationships to simulate future energy demand under a range of energy prices, temperatures and other drivers. The results indicate that climate exerts a comparably small signal on future energy demand, but that the combined climate and non-climate-induced changes in energy demand may pose significant challenges to policy and investment decisions in the state. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *EIA, EL POW MONTHL *EIA, NAT GAS MONTHL *EIA, PETR MARK MONTHL *EIA, 1995, DOEEIA0555952 *EIA, 1999, LOOK RES EN CONS 199 *EIA, 2001, ANN EN REV 2000 *EIA, 2001, STAT EN DAT REP 1999 *EPA, 1998, 236F980071 US PEA OF MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 *MAR DEP PLANN, 2004, HIST PROJ TOT POP MA *NCDC, 2004, ENV INF SER C, V23 *NOAA, 2003, SUNR SUNS CALC *US BUR EC AN, 2002, TOT FULL TIM PART TI *US CENS BUR, 2004, STAT POP EST *US GLOB CHANG RES, 2000, US NAT ASS POT IMP C AMATO A, 2005, IN PRESS CLIMATIC CH BADRI MA, 1992, ENERGY, V17, P725 BARRON E, 2002, POTENTIAL CONSEQUENC BELZER DB, 1996, ENERG SOURCE, V18, P177 BOUSTEAD I, 1994, CONSERV RECYCLING, V12, P121 CARTALIS C, 2001, ENERG CONVERS MANAGE, V42, P1647 DEDEAR R, 2001, INT J BIOMETEOROL, V45, P100 GRECO S, 67 IPCC WMO UNEP JAGER J, 1983, CLIMATE ENERGY SYSTE LAKSHMANAN TR, 1980, REGIONAL SCI URBAN E, V10, P371 LAM JC, 1998, ENERG CONVERS MANAGE, V39, P623 LEHMAN RL, 1994, J APPL METEOROL, V33, P96 LINDER KP, 1990, POTENTIAL EFFECTS GL MORRIS M, 1999, IMPACT TEMPERATURE T MORRISON W, 1998, IMPACTS CLIMATE CHAN MURPHY R, 2002, ENVIRON HIST, V8, P43 NALL D, 1979, ASHRAE T, V85, P1 PARDO A, 2002, ENERG ECON, V24, P55 PRESSMAN N, 1995, NO CITYSCAPE LINKING ROSENTHAL DH, 1995, ENERGY J, V16 ROSENZWEIG C, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE GLOBA RUTH M, 2001, WORLD RESOURCES REV, V13, P106 SAILOR DJ, 1997, ENERGY, V22, P987 SAILOR DJ, 1997, WORLD RESOURCE REV, V9, P301 SAILOR DJ, 1998, ENERGY, V23, P91 SAILOR DJ, 2001, ENERGY, V26, P645 SCOTT MJ, 1994, ENERG SOURCE, V16, P317 SEGAL M, 1992, J APPL METEOROL, V31, P1492 WARREN HE, 1981, J APPL METEOROL, V20, P1431 WILBANKS TJ, 1999, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V43, P601 YAN YY, 1998, ENERGY, V23, P17 NR 46 TC 0 J9 ENERG POLICY BP 2820 EP 2833 PY 2006 PD NOV VL 34 IS 17 GA 100CG UT ISI:000241644200018 ER PT J AU Le Treut, H TI Modeling future climate changes: certainties and uncertainties SO HOUILLE BLANCHE-REVUE INTERNATIONALE DE L EAU LA French DT Article C1 Inst Pierre Simon Laplace, Meteorol Dynam Lab, Paris, France. RP Le Treut, H, Inst Pierre Simon Laplace, Meteorol Dynam Lab, Paris, France. AB Since the middle of the nineteenth century the composition of the Earth atmosphere has begun to change in a manner which is unprecedented over the Quaternary era. The carbon dioxide concentration, for example had been oscillating between extremal values of 180 ppm (during glaciations) and 280 ppm (during interglacial eras). It had stayed almost constant over the last 10 000 years, but has now reached a value of 360 ppm, much of the increase taking place during the last decades. Similarly methane concentration has been multiplied by more than a factor 2, and other gases (nitrous oxides) have also experienced an exponential growth. There is no doubt that this situation is the result of human activities : energy consumption, industrial or agricultural activities, deforestation. As most of these gases have a long residence time in the atmosphere, where they tend to accumulate, we may expect the level of these perturbations to increase strongly throughout the 21st century. To diagnose the possible impact of these trends in terms of climate impact, the only available tools are numerical models. These numerical models constitute in a way virtural planets, where the atmospheric and oceanic flow, the continental hydrology, and their interactions, are represented through physical equations. Models are not a perfect representation of the Earth system, and they will never be. We also cannot expect the climate system to be fully predictable. But models are strongly constrained by conservation equations, they behave in many aspects like the real planet and reproduce quite realistically the mean geographical and seasonal fluctuations of the precipitation, the temperature or the winds as well as some of the most important natural fluctuations at intraseasonal or interannual (El Nino, North Atlantic Oscillation) time scales. So models are useful to describe a range of possible future climates Present projections indicate in all cases, a significant change, with a global surface warming in 2 100 between 2degreesC and 6degreesC : half of the uncertainty is due to the economic projections, half is due to the complex behavior of the climate system (in particular : clouds). It is striking that the lower bound of these estimates already represents an important perturbation. The changes in temperature would induce changes in precipitation rates or areas, in storminess or cyclone tracks - the regional consequences are however difficult to predict in details. We may expect the sea level to rise from 20 to 90 cm. Changes in a more distant future (2 centuries) might be much larger, although such projections are less reliable. An important feature of the changes to come may be their partially unpredictable character : many of the local events accompanying a global climate change will arise as surprises. In that sense the rate of change will be the primary factor of danger. And if it is probably too late to stop climate modification, there is still time to favor a situation where adaptation to its impacts will be easier. CR FRIEDLINGSTEIN P, 2001, UNPUB GEOPHYSICAL RE HOUGHTON JT, 1994, CLIMATE CHANGE 1994 HOUHGTON JT, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 LETREUT, 2001, 18 IPSL MANABE S, 1994, J CLIMATE, V7, P5 NR 5 TC 0 J9 HOUILLE BLANCHE BP 69 EP 72 PY 2002 IS 8 GA 650TN UT ISI:000181279600012 ER PT J AU Winter, G TI The asynchrony of society, nature, and law SO GAIA-ECOLOGICAL PERSPECTIVES FOR SCIENCE AND SOCIETY LA German DT Article C1 Univ Bremen, FEU, D-28203 Bremen, Germany. RP Winter, G, Univ Bremen, FEU, Postfach 33 04 40, D-28203 Bremen, Germany. AB The abstraction of the modern mind from societal time structures has often been argued as being detrimental to life quality. This article aims at extending the discussion to the time structures of the natural environment. Linear and cyclical time structures in nature are stressed by man's forcing of evolutionary processes and overloading of material cycles. Natural internal distortions and external factors cause catastrophic sequences and are supplemented by human impact. The article analyzes such asynchronisms and proceeds to ask what institutions, and, more specifically, whether the legal system, would be capable of alerting civilization to the resulting risks and induce society to react appropriately. With the principles of precaution, sustainability and liability the law has indeed engendered instruments of slowing down, adaptation to natural cycles, and prevention of catastrophic trajectories thereby countervailing other legal rules that release the very dynamics of stress. However, the very process of legal intervention has a time pattern of its own and the slowness of international law-making, in particular, serves as a major obstacle to the timely reorientation of a society that is more respectful of natural time structures. Societal self-governance may help to find the proper balance with time, however, making regulatory systems more time-conscious is indispensible to this effort. 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Coastal erosion in the tropics SO SINGAPORE JOURNAL OF TROPICAL GEOGRAPHY LA English DT Review C1 Natl Univ Singapore, Dept Geog, Singapore 0511, Singapore. RP Wong, PP, Natl Univ Singapore, Dept Geog, Singapore 0511, Singapore. AB From a physical geography perspective, tropical coasts are characterised by coral reefs, mangroves and carbonate beaches on atolls and low reef islands. They face threats not only from sea level rise, but also from human activities that destroy mangroves, degrade coral reefs and accelerate beach erosion. Physical conditions in the tropics are suitable for the ideal tourist beach. Conceptually, the tourist coast can be considered as the integration of a physical system (the coast) and a human system (tourism). Studies have been carried out on various types of tourist coasts in Southeast Asia. For many atoll island states, sea level rise is more than just a threat to their tourism; it also determines their survival. In recent years, assessments of their vulnerability and adaptation have favoured a more integrative approach of physical and human sciences. Hopefully, this should result in a better analytical tropical geography that could play an important role in reducing coastal erosion and assist the small island states. 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Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res PIK, D-14412 Potsdam, Germany. RP Kundzewicz, ZW, Polish Acad Sci, Res Ctr Agr & Forest Environm, Poznan, Poland. AB Recent floods have become more abundant and more destructive than ever in many regions of the globe. Destructive floods observed in the 1990s all over the world have led to record-high material damage, with total losses exceeding one billion US dollars in each of two dozen events. The immediate question emerges as to the extent to which a sensible rise in flood hazard and vulnerability can be linked to climate variability and change. Links between climate change and floods have found extensive coverage in the Third Assessment Report ( TAR) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Since the material on floods is scattered over many places of two large volumes of the TAR, the present contribution - a guided tour to floods in the IPCC TAR - may help a reader notice the different angles from which floods were considered in the IPCC report. As the water-holding capacity of the atmosphere grows with temperature, the potential for intensive precipitation also increases. Higher and more intense precipitation has been already observed and this trend is expected to increase in the future, warmer world. This is a sufficient condition for flood hazard to increase. Yet there are also other, non-climatic, factors exacerbating flood hazard. According to the IPCC TAR, the analysis of extreme events in both observations and coupled models is underdeveloped. It is interesting that the perception of floods in different parts of the TAR is largely different. Large uncertainty is emphasized in the parts dealing with the science of climate change, but in the impact chapters, referring to sectors and regions, growth in flood risk is taken for granted. Floods have been identified on short lists of key regional concerns. CR *IFRCRCS, 1997, WORLD DIS REP 1997 *MUN RE, 1997, FLOOD INS ANDRADE RFS, 1998, PHYSICA A, V254, P257 ARNELL NW, 1999, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHA S, V9, S31 BERZ G, 2001, CLIMATE 21 CENTURY C, P392 CHIEW FHS, 1993, INT J CLIMATOL, V13, P643 HOUGHTON JT, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 KUNDZEWICZ ZW, 1999, HYDROLOG SCI J, V44, P417 KUNDZEWICZ ZW, 1999, HYDROLOG SCI J, V44, P855 KUNDZEWICZ ZW, 2000, WATER INT, V25, P66 KUNDZEWICZ ZW, 2000, WCDMP45 WORLD CLIM P KUNDZEWICZ ZW, 2001, HYDROLOG SCI J, V46, P883 KUNDZEWICZ ZW, 2002, WATER INT, V27, P3 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 MILLY PCD, 2002, NATURE, V415, P514 PALMER TN, 2002, NATURE, V415, P512 PARRY ML, 2000, ASSESSMENT POTENTIAL SCHNUR R, 2002, NATURE, V415, P483 NR 18 TC 0 J9 NATURAL HAZARDS BP 111 EP 128 PY 2004 PD JAN VL 31 IS 1 GA 804MV UT ISI:000220303700006 ER PT J AU Dickens, P TI Linking the social and natural sciences: Is capital modifying human biology in its own image? SO SOCIOLOGY-THE JOURNAL OF THE BRITISH SOCIOLOGICAL ASSOCIATION LA English DT Article C1 Univ Cambridge, Fac Social & Polit Sci, Cambridge CB2 3RQ, England. RP Dickens, P, Univ Cambridge, Fac Social & Polit Sci, Free Sch Lane, Cambridge CB2 3RQ, England. AB Social science has long fought shy of the natural sciences. Meanwhile, concerns with the environment, health and the new genetics are creating a need for systematic links to be made between these disciplines. This paper suggests a new way in which social theory can be linked to biology Recent developments in biology point to the importance of considering organisms in relation to their environment. And work in epidemiology stresses the links between the infant-development, health in later life and the well-being of future generations. Complex combinations of genetically-determined predispositions and capitalist social relations are responsible for important features of contemporary social stratification and well-being. The paper is informed by critical realist epistemology and Marx's theory of the subsumption. Such a fusion leads to a key assertion. Capital tends to modify the powers of human biology in its own image. 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RP Wolf, ER, CUNY, New York, NY 10031 USA. AB In his later work Rappaport acknowledged that his earlier efforts had overemphasized organic and ecological functions in the explanation of cultural phenomena. He then distanced himself from both idealism and reductive materialism and set out to understand the complexities of cultural understandings and ritual. Specifically, he shifted from functionalism to formalism in an effort to understand ritual and its language in relation to cultural norms. Ultimately his analysis was implicitly structural, understanding the part as a constituent of an overarching arrangement and in terms of what Althusser would have called "structural causality." Although his work benefited from this shift from function to structure, Rappaport did not use it to explore the political dimension. However, a holistic ecology such as the one Rappaport essayed must ultimately embrace both political ecology and historical ecology. CR ALTHUSSER L, 1970, READING CAPITAL BARGATZKY T, 1996, CURR ANTHROPOL, V17, P416 BARTH F, 1987, COSMOLOGIES MAKING G BLOCH M, 1989, RITUAL HIST POWER SE, P106 DUBY G, 1980, 3 ORDERS FEUDAL SOC KELLY RC, 1993, CONSTRUCTING INEQUAL LINSTROM L, 1990, KNOWLEDGE POWER S PA MAUSS M, 1954, GIFT RAPPAPORT RA, 1979, ECOLOGY MEANING RELI RAPPAPORT RA, 1967, PIGS ANCESTORS RITUA, V1, P1 SAHLINS M, 1976, CURR ANTHROPOL, V17, P298 SAHLINS M, 1996, CURR ANTHROPOL, V37, P395 NR 12 TC 1 J9 AMER ANTHROPOL BP 19 EP 22 PY 1999 PD MAR VL 101 IS 1 GA 214UT UT ISI:000081346500002 ER PT J AU Rounsevell, MDA Ewert, F Reginster, I Leemans, R Carter, TR TI Future scenarios of European agricultural land use II. Projecting changes in cropland and grassland SO AGRICULTURE ECOSYSTEMS & ENVIRONMENT LA English DT Article C1 Catholic Univ Louvain, Dept Geog, Louvain, Belgium. Univ Wageningen & Res Ctr, Dept Plant Sci, Grp Plant Prod Syst, NL-6700 AK Wageningen, Netherlands. Univ Wageningen & Res Ctr, Dept Environm Sci, Grp Environm Syst Anal, NL-6700 HB Wageningen, Netherlands. Finnish Environm Inst, SYKE, FIN-00251 Helsinki, Finland. RP Rounsevell, MDA, Catholic Univ Louvain, Dept Geog, Pl Pasteur 3, Louvain, Belgium. AB This paper presents the development of quantitative, spatially explicit and alternative scenarios of future agricultural land use in Europe (the 15 European Union member states, Norway and Switzerland). The scenarios were constructed to support analyses of the vulnerability of ecosystem services, but the approach also provides an exploration of how agricultural land use might respond to a range of future environmental change drivers, including climate and socio-economic change. The baseline year was 2000 and the scenarios were constructed for 3 years (2020, 2050 and 2080) at a spatial resolution of 10 min latitude and longitude. Time slices were defined for the climate scenarios as the 10 years before 2020, 2050 and 2080. The scenarios were based on an interpretation of the four storylines of the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) using a simple supply/demand model of agricultural area quantities at the European scale and the disaggregation of these quantities using scenario-specific, spatial allocation rules. The scenarios demonstrate the importance of assumptions about technological development for future agricultural land use in Europe. If technology continues to progress at current rates then the area of agricultural land would need to decline substantially. Such declines will not occur if there is a correspondingly large increase in the demand for agricultural goods, or if political decisions are taken either to reduce crop productivity through policies that encourage extensification or to accept widespread overproduction. For the set of parameters assumed here, cropland and grassland areas (for the production of food and fibre) decline by as much as 50% of current areas for some scenarios. Such declines in production areas would result in large parts of Europe becoming surplus to the requirement of food and fibre production. Although it is difficult to anticipate how this land would be used in the future, it seems that continued urban expansion, recreational areas (such as for horse riding) and forest land use would all be likely to take up at least some of the surplus. Furthermore, whilst the substitution of food production by energy production was considered in these scenarios, surplus land would provide further opportunities for the cultivation of bioenergy crops. (c) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. CR *EUR COMM, 2001, AGR EUR UN STAT EC I *EUR, 2000, REG DAT US GUID *IMAGE TEAM, 2001, IMAGE 2 2 IMPL SRES *IUCN WCMC WCPA, 1998, 1997 UN LIST PROT AR ALCAMO J, 1996, GLOBAL ENV CHANGE, V6 ALCAMO J, 1998, GLOBAL CHANGE SCENAR ALCAMO J, 1998, GLOBAL CHANGE SCENAR, P3 ALCAMO J, 2001, 24 EUR ENV AG ALEXANDRATOS N, 1995, AGR 2010 FAO STUDY AMTHOR JS, 1998, FIELD CROP RES, V58, P109 ARNELL NW, 2004, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V14, P3 BRIASSOULI H, 2000, ANAL LAND USE CHANGE CARTER TR, IPCC TECHNICAL GUIDE CARTER TR, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, P145 DAVIS G, 2002, PROB FUT C GROUP EXT DELAVEGALEINERT AC, UNPUB REG ENV CHANGE EWERT F, 2005, AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON, V107, P101 GIUPPONI C, 2003, CLIMATE CHANGE MEDIT, P133 HOLMAN IP, IN PRESS METHODOLOGY HOLMAN IP, IN PRESS RESULTS CLI KAIVOOJA J, 2004, BOREAL ENVIRON RES, V9, P109 LAMBIN EF, 2000, AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON, V82, P321 LEEMANS R, 1996, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V6, P335 LEEMANS R, 1999, RIVM PUBLICATION LORENZONI I, 2000, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V10, P57 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 MEARNS LO, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, P739 METZGER M, 2003, LANDSCHAP, V20, P50 METZGER MJ, UNPUB GLOBAL ECOL BI MITCHELL TD, 2004, 55 U E ANGL TYND CTR MUCHER CA, 2000, INT J REMOTE SENS, V21, P1159 NAKICENOVIC N, 2000, SPECIAL REPORT EMISS PARRY ML, 2000, ASSESSMENT POTENTIAL RABBINGE R, 1997, EUR J PLANT PATHOL, V103, P197 REGINSTER IR, 2004, UNPUB ENV PLAN B ROTMANS J, 2000, FUTURES, V32, P809 ROUNSEVELL MDA, 2000, CLIMATE SCENARIOS AG ROUNSEVELL MDA, 2002, LAND COVE LAND USE E ROUNSEVELL MDA, 2003, AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON, V95, P465 STRENGERS B, 2001, 481508015 RIVM NAT I VERBURG PH, 2002, ENVIRON MANAGE, V30, P391 NR 41 TC 27 J9 AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON BP 117 EP 135 PY 2005 PD MAY 20 VL 107 IS 2-3 GA 919CR UT ISI:000228596400002 ER PT J AU MULLER, RGE TI PEOPLE AND ENVIRONMENT - THE CONCEPT OF ADAPTATION ACCORDING TO VONBRACKEN,HELMUT SO HEILPADAGOGISCHE FORSCHUNG LA German DT Article CR ALLPORT GW, 1949, PERSONLICHKEITSSTRUK CORRELL W, 1974, PADAGOGISCHE VERHALT DEWEY J, 1922, HUMAN NATURE CONDUCT GEIGER T, 1932, MERKSATZE VORLESUNGE LANTERMANN ED, 1982, WECHSELBEZIEHUNGEN P LERSCH P, 1957, AUFBAU PERSON MIERKE K, 1953, PRAXIS KINDERPSYCHOL MIERKE K, 1954, PRAXIS KINDERPSYCHOL MULLER M, 1967, PSYCHOL BEITRAGE, V10 MULLER RGE, 1947, THESIS TH BRAUNSCHWE MULLER RGE, 1954, PSYCHOL BEITRAGE, V1 MULLER RGE, 1960, PSYCHOL BEITRAGE, V4 RIESMAN D, 1958, EINSAME MASSE ROWOHL SELYE H, 1953, EINFUHRUNG LEHRE VOM STERN W, 1952, ALLGEMEINE PSYCHOL P STUTTE H, 1958, GRENZEN SOZIALPADAGO SYMONDS PM, 1946, DYNAMICS HUMAN ADJUS THOMAE H, 1955, PERSONLICHKEIT DYNAM THOMAE H, 1959, HDB PSYCHOL, V3 THUMB N, 1942, AUFBAU PERSONLICHKEI VONBRACKEN H, 1930, ANPASSUNG JUGENDLICH VONBRACKEN H, 1949, BEOBACHTUNGEN SCHULN VONBRACKEN H, 1953, 17 K DT GES PSYCH GO VONBRACKEN H, 1957, CONTRIBUTIONS PSYCHO NR 24 TC 0 J9 HEILPADAGOG FORSCH BP 143 EP 149 PY 1984 VL 11 IS 2 GA TK284 UT ISI:A1984TK28400002 ER PT J AU Smithers, J Smit, B TI Human adaptation to climatic variability and change SO GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS LA English DT Article C1 UNIV GUELPH,DEPT GEOG,GUELPH,ON N1G 2W1,CANADA. RP Smithers, J, UNIV GUELPH,ECOSYST HLTH PROGRAM,FAC ENVIRONM SCI,GUELPH,ON N1G 2W1,CANADA. AB Recent developments in both the policy arena and the climate impacts research community point to a growing interest in human adaptation to climatic variability and change. The importance of adaptation In the climate change question is affirmed in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Technical Guidelines for Assessing impacts and Adaptations and the IPCC's more recent Second Assessment Report. Yet, the nature and processes of human adaptation to climate are poorly understood and rarely investigated directly. Most often, human responses of one form or another are simply assumed in impacts research. Analyses that do address adaptation use a variety of interpretations and perspectives resulting in an incomplete, and at inconsistent, understanding of adaptation to environmental variations. This paper reviews and synthesizes perspectives from an eclectic body or scholarship to develop a framework for characterizing and understanding human adaptation to climatic variability and change. The framework recognizes the characteristics of climatic events, the ecological properties of systems which mediate effects, and the distinctions which are possible among different types of adaptation. A classification scheme is proposed for differentiating adaptation strategies. 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AB A greenhouse warning would have major effects on water supplies and demands. A framework for examining the socioeconomic impacts associated with changes in the long-term availability of water is developed and applied to the hydrologic implications of the Canadian and British Hadley2 general circulation models (GCMs) for the 18 water resource regions in the conterminous United States. The climate projections of these two GCMs have very different implications for future water supplies and costs. The Canadian model suggests most of the nation would be much drier in the year 2030. Under the least-cost management scenario the drier climate could add nearly $105 billion to the estimated costs of balancing supplies and demands relative to the costs without climate change. Measures to protect instream flows and irrigation could result in significantly higher costs. In contrast, projections based on the Hadley model suggest water supplies would increase throughout much of the nation, reducing the costs of balancing water supplies with demands relative to the no-climate change case. CR 1998, WATER CONSERVATION P *BUR CENS, 1992, CENS AGR, V3 *CAL DEP WAT RES, 1998, 16098 CAL WAT PLAN U *EC RES SERV, 1997, AGR HDB, V172 WATSON RT, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, V1, P1 *US ARM CORPS ENG, 1996, NAT INV DAMS *US WAT RES COUNC, 1978, NAT WAT RES 1975 200 BAYHA K, 1978, FWSOBS7861 INSTR FLO BOLAND JJ, 1997, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V37, P157 BROWN TC, 1999, RMRSGTR39 US DEP AGR FREDERICK DK, 1982, WATER W AGR RES FUTU FREDERICK KD, 1991, AM RENEWABLE RESOURC FREDERICK KD, 1991, DOERL01830TH10 OFF E FREDERICK KD, 1997, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V37, P1 MCCABE GJ, 1992, WATER RESOUR BULL, V28, P535 MCCONNELL VD, 1992, J ENVIRON ECON MANAG, V23, P54 MILLER KA, 1990, CLIMATE CHANGE US WA RICHARD D, 1992, COST WASTEWATER RECL SOLLEY WB, 1995, 1200 US GEOL SURV WAHL RW, 1986, SCARCE WATER INSTITU WOLOCK DM, 1999, P SPEC C POT CONS CL, P161 NR 21 TC 3 J9 J AM WATER RESOUR ASSOC BP 1563 EP 1583 PY 1999 PD DEC VL 35 IS 6 GA 271ZB UT ISI:000084624600024 ER PT J AU Klein, RJT Schipper, ELF Dessai, S TI Integrating mitigation and adaptation into climate and development policy: three research questions SO ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE & POLICY LA English DT Article C1 Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res, D-14412 Potsdam, Germany. Stockholm Environm Inst, Oxford OX2 7DL, England. Int Water Management Inst, Colombo, Sri Lanka. Univ E Anglia, Sch Environm Sci, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. Univ E Anglia, Tyndall Ctr Climate Change Res, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. RP Klein, RJT, Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res, POB 601203, D-14412 Potsdam, Germany. AB The potential for developing synergies between climate change mitigation and adaptation has become a recent focus of both climate research and policy. Presumably the interest in synergies springs from the appeal of creating win-win situations by implementing a single climate policy option. However, institutional complexity, insufficient opportunities and uncertainty surrounding their efficiency and effectiveness present major challenges to the widespread development of synergies. There are also increasing calls for research to define the optimal mix of mitigation and adaptation. These calls are based on the misguided assumption that there is one single optimal mix of adaptation and mitigation options for all possible scenarios of climate and socio-economic change, notwithstanding uncertainty and irrespective of the diversity of values and preferences in society. In the face of current uncertainty, research is needed to provide guidance on how to develop a socially and economically justifiable mix of mitigation, adaptation and development policy, as well as on which elements would be part of such a mix. Moreover, research is needed to establish the conditions under which the process of mainstrearning can be most effective. Rather than actually developing and implementing specific mitigation and adaptation options, the objective of climate policy should be to facilitate such development and implementation as part of sectoral policies. Finally, analysis needs to focus on the optimal use and expected effectiveness of financial instruments, taking into account the mutual effects between these instruments on the one hand, and national and international sectoral investments and official development assistance on the other. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *AFDB ADB DFID EC, 2003, POV CLIM CHANG RED V *GAIM TASK FORC, 2002, RES GAIM NEWSLETT GL, V5, P1 *UNDP, 1997, SYN NAT IMPL RIO AGR ARROW KJ, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, P53 BARNETT J, 2002, CLIM POLICY, V2, P231 BEG N, 2002, CLIM POLICY, V2, P129 BURTON I, 1994, DELTA, V5, P14 BURTON I, 2000, CLIMATE CHANGE DEV, P153 BURTON I, 2002, CLIM POLICY, V2, P145 CALLAWAY JM, 1998, MITIGATION ADAPTATIO, P97 CIFUENTES L, 2001, SCIENCE, V293, P1257 COHEN SJ, 1998, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V8, P341 DESSAI S, 2001, INTEGRATED ASSESSMEN, V2, P159 FANKHAUSER S, 1998, 16 GEF HOUGHTON T, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 HULME M, 1999, NATURE, V397, P688 HUQ S, 2002, CLIM POLICY, V2, P243 HUQ S, 2003, MAINSTREAMING ADAPTA, P40 KANE SM, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P1 KATES RW, 1997, ENVIRONMENT, V39, P29 KLEIN RJT, 2001, ADAPTATION CLIMATE C, P42 KLEIN RJT, 2002, EXP M AD CLIM CHANG KLEIN RJT, 2003, CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPT, P317 KLEIN RJT, 2003, CLIMATE CHANGE MEDIT, P32 LEMPERT RJ, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P129 LEMPERT RJ, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P387 MARKANDYA A, 2002, CLIMATE CHANGE SUSTA METZ B, 2000, INTEGRATED ASSESSMEN, V1, P111 MICHAELOWA A, 2001, 153 HWWA MOOMAW WR, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, P167 PARMESAN C, 2003, NATURE, V421, P37 PARRY ML, 1998, NATURE, V395, P741 PIELKE RA, 1998, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V8, P159 PITTOCK AB, 2000, ENVIRON MONIT ASSESS, V61, P9 RIBOT JC, 1996, CLIMATE VARIABILITY, V1, P1 ROOT TL, 2003, NATURE, V421, P57 SCHERAGA JD, 1998, CLIMATE RES, V11, P85 SMIT B, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, P877 SMITH JB, 2003, CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPT SMITHERS J, 1997, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V7, P129 TOTH FL, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, P601 WIGLEY TML, 1998, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V25, P2285 YOHE GW, 2001, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V49, P247 NR 43 TC 0 J9 ENVIRON SCI POLICY BP 579 EP 588 PY 2005 VL 8 IS 6 GA 991MD UT ISI:000233817200006 ER PT J AU Spittlehouse, DL TI Integrating climate change adaptation into forest management SO FORESTRY CHRONICLE LA English DT Article C1 BC Minist Forest, Res Branch, Victoria, BC V8W 9C2, Canada. RP Spittlehouse, DL, BC Minist Forest, Res Branch, POB 9519,Stn Prov Govt, Victoria, BC V8W 9C2, Canada. AB Future climate change will affect society's ability to use forest resources. We take account of climate in forest management and this will help us adapt to the effects of climate change on forests. However, society will have to adjust to how forests adapt by changing expectations for the use of forest resources because management can only influence the timing and direction of forest adaptation at selected locations. There will be benefits as well as loses and an important component of adaptation will be balancing values. Adaptation options to respond to impacts on the timber supply in Canada for the next 50 to 100 years are limited mainly to forest protection and wood utilisation because these forests are already in the ground. Adaptation through reforestation will focus on commercial tree species. It is important to start developing adaptation strategies now. These include assessing forest vulnerability to climate change, revising expectations of forest use, determining research and educational needs, development of forest policies to facilitate adaptation, and determining when to implement responses. Government agencies should take the lead in creating an environment to foster adaptation in forestry and in developing the necessary information required to respond. 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Harvard Univ, Sch Med, Ctr Hlth & Global Environm, Boston, MA USA. Resources Future Inc, Washington, DC USA. Nat Resources Def Council, Washington, DC USA. US Geol Survey, San Diego, CA USA. RP Levin, RB, Harvard Univ, Sch Publ Hlth, Environm Epidemiol Program, 665 Huntington Ave, Boston, MA 02115 USA. AB The access of almost all 270 million U.S. residents to reliable, safe drinking water distinguishes the United States in the twentieth century from that of the nineteenth century. The United States is a relatively water-abundant country with moderate population growth; nonetheless, current trends are sufficient to strain water resources over time, especially on a regional basis. We have examined the areas of public water infrastructure, global climate effects, waterborne disease (including emerging and resurging pathogens), land use, groundwater, surface water, and the U.S. regulatory history and its horizon. 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ER PT J AU Arnell, NW Tompkins, EL Adger, WN TI Eliciting information from experts on the likelihood of rapid climate change SO RISK ANALYSIS LA English DT Article C1 Univ Southampton, Sch Geog, Tyndall Ctr Climate Change Res, Southampton SO17 1BJ, Hants, England. Univ E Anglia, Sch Environm Sci, Tyndall Ctr Climate Change Res, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. RP Arnell, NW, Univ Southampton, Sch Geog, Tyndall Ctr Climate Change Res, Southampton SO17 1BJ, Hants, England. AB The threat of so-called rapid or abrupt climate change has generated considerable public interest because of its potentially significant impacts. The collapse of the North Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation or the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, for example, would have potentially catastrophic effects on temperatures and sea level, respectively. But how likely are such extreme climatic changes? Is it possible actually to estimate likelihoods? This article reviews the societal demand for the likelihoods of rapid or abrupt climate change, and different methods for estimating likelihoods: past experience, model simulation, or through the elicitation of expert judgments. The article describes a survey to estimate the likelihoods of two characterizations of rapid climate change, and explores the issues associated with such surveys and the value of information produced. The surveys were based on key scientists chosen for their expertise in the climate science of abrupt climate change. Most survey respondents ascribed low likelihoods to rapid climate change, due either to the collapse of the Thermohaline Circulation or increased positive feedbacks. In each case one assessment was an order of magnitude higher than the others. We explore a high rate of refusal to participate in this expert survey: many scientists prefer to rely on output from future climate model simulations. 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AB This paper reviews assumptions guiding earlier models of social and economic behavior among arid land hunter-gatherers, especially those models that argued for the 'original affluent society' and concepts requiring groups of fixed size and composition operating within stable, bounded territories. A close look at socioeconomic behavior among ethnographic Ngatatjara Aborigines of the Western Desert challenges these assumptions and introduces an adaptive model based on strategy switching'. In order to minimize risks imposed by droughts, the Ngatatjara responded in their movements and group composition by means of two alterative strategies: drought escape and drought evasion. Drought escape involved temporary abandonment of entire areas by individual households or by individuals to distant, better-favored areas. Drought evasion involved retreat by small family groups into areas within their 'home' country where relatively dependable water resources were available. Drought escape and drought evasion strategies are briefly considered as factors in early plant domestication in the context of prehistoric arid-land foraging societies in places like the Tehuacan Valley on the Mexican Plateau. 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Texas A&M Univ, Dept Landscape Architecture & Urban Planning, Environm Planning & Sustainabil Res Unit, College Stn, TX 77843 USA. Texas A&M Univ, George Bush Sch Govt & Publ Serv, Inst Sci Technol & Publ Policy, College Stn, TX 77843 USA. RP Zahran, S, Colorado State Univ, Dept Sociol, B-258 Clark Bldg, Ft Collins, CO 80523 USA. AB Climate scientists note that the effects of climate change vary regionally. Citizen willingness to absorb the costs of adaptation and mitigation policies may correspond with these place-specific effects. Geographic information systems (GIS) analytic techniques are used to map and measure survey respondents' climate change risk at various levels of spatial resolution and precision. Spatial data are used to analyze multiple measures of climate change vulnerability along with demographic, attitudinal, and perception-based variables derived from a representative national survey of U. 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RP Steelman, TA, N Carolina State Univ, Coll Nat Resources, Dept Forestry, Campus Box 8008, Raleigh, NC 27695 USA. AB National policies to address the wildfire threat in the United States place emphasis on community responsiveness, but great uncertainty surrounds the scope and success of community response to wildfire threats and why some communities foster effective responses while others fail to do so. Two case studies of community responses to wildfire threats in New Mexico are explored. A decision process framework illustrates how an effective response can be defined. Findings indicate that an effective community response to wildfire means that a community works through all stages of the decision process with appropriate social and structural responses to its specific threat. CR *GEN ACC OFF, 1999, RCED9965 GEN ACC OFF *GEN ACC OFF, 1999, TRCED9979 GEN ACC OF *GEN ACC OFF, 2001, GAO0110227 GEN ACC O *NAT INT FIR CTR, 2003, NAT INT FIR CTR FIR *SFWA, 2003, STAT REP *US BUR CENS, 2002, AM FACT FIND *USDA, 2000, FED WILDL FIR MAN PO *USDA, 2000, NAT FIR PLAN *USDA, 2000, PROT PEOPL SUST RES *USDA, 2001, SANT FE NAT FOR *W GOV ASS, 2001, W GOV ASS KEY ISS BR BERKE P, 1998, J AM PLAN ASS, V64, P75 BURBY RJ, 1998, J ENV PLANNING MANAG, V41, P95 CHENG T, 2003, HUMANS FIRES FORESTS, P51 CIGLER B, 1988, MANAGING DIASTER STR, P39 CLARK TH, 1996, J MANAGEMENT INFORMA, V13, P9 CLARK TW, 2002, POLICY PROCESS PRACT CORTNER HJ, 1990, ENVIRON MANAGE, V14, P57 CUTTER SL, 2000, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V90, P713 GARDNER P, 1988, P AR LANDS TOD TOM, P643 GORTE RW, 2003, HUMANS FIRES FORESTS, P59 LASSWELL HD, 1971, PREVIEW POLICY SCI LASSWELL HD, 1992, JURISPRUDENCE FREE S MAY P, 1986, DISASTER POLICY IMPL MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 YIN RK, 1994, CASE STUDY RES DESIG NR 26 TC 0 J9 SOC NATUR RESOUR BP 679 EP 699 PY 2004 PD SEP VL 17 IS 8 GA 848ZR UT ISI:000223507400003 ER PT J AU Luers, AL TI The surface of vulnerability: An analytical framework for examining environmental change SO GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS LA English DT Article C1 Union Concerned Sci, Berkeley, CA 94704 USA. RP Luers, AL, Union Concerned Sci, 2397 Shattuck Ave,Ste 203, Berkeley, CA 94704 USA. AB This paper introduces an analytical framework for evaluating the vulnerability of people and places to environmental and social forces. The framework represents the relative vulnerability of a variable of concern (e.g. such as agricultural yield) to a set of disturbing forces (e.g. climate change, market fluctuations) by a position on a three-dimensional analytical surface, where vulnerability is defined as a function of sensitivity, exposure, and the state relative to a threshold of damage. The surface is presented as a tool to help identify relative vulnerability in order to prioritize actions and assess the vulnerability implications of management and policy decisions. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *FAO, 1997, FAOSTAT MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 ADGER WN, 1999, MITIG ADAPT STRAT GL, V4, P253 ADGER WN, 2001, LIVING ENV CHANGE SO BLAIKIE PM, 1994, RISK NATURAL HAZARDS, V1, P1 BOHLE HG, 2001, IHDP UPDATE, V2 BOHLE HG, 1994, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V4, P37 BRIGUGLIO L, 1995, WORLD DEV, V23, P1615 CARPENTER SR, 2001, ECOSYSTEMS, V4, P765 CARPENTER SR, 1999, ECOL APPL, V9, P751 CHAMBERS R, 1989, IDS B, V20, P1 CLARK WC, 2000, 200012 BCSIA HARV U CUTTER SL, 2000, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V90, P713 DOWNING TE, 1991, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V1, P365 DOWNING TE, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE VULNE FOLKE C, 2002, ICSU SERIES SUSTAINA KALY A, 2002, DEV B, V58 KASPERSON JX, 2003, HUMAN DIMENSIONS GLO KELLY PM, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V47, P325 LEICHENKO RM, 2002, MITIGATION ADAPTATIO, V7, P1 LOBELL DB, 2002, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V114, P31 LOBELL DB, 2003, AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON, V114, P31 LUERS AL, 2003, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V13, P255 MITCHELL JK, 1989, GEOGR REV, V79, P391 MOSS RH, 2002, UNPUB VULNERABILITY NAYLOR RL, 2001, 0101 CIMMYT OBRIEN KL, 2000, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V10, P221 PETERSON GD, 2002, CONSERVATION ECOLOGY, V6 POLSKY C, 2003, ASSESSIG VULNERABILI RIBOT JC, 1995, GEOJOURNAL, V35, P119 SCHEFFER M, 2001, NATURE, V413, P591 SCHIMMELPFENNIG D, 1999, GLOBAL ENV CHANGE AG SMITH B, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P223 STEPHEN L, 2001, DISASTERS, V25, P113 TURNER BL, 2003, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V100, P8074 TURNER BL, 2003, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V100, P8080 WATTS MJ, 1993, PROG HUM GEOG, V17, P43 NR 37 TC 4 J9 GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANGE BP 214 EP 223 PY 2005 PD OCT VL 15 IS 3 GA 960JC UT ISI:000231585500005 ER PT J AU Fankhauser, S TI Climate change costs - Recent advancements in the economic assessment SO ENERGY POLICY LA English DT Article C1 VRIJE UNIV AMSTERDAM,INST ENVIRONM STUDIES,NL-1081 HV AMSTERDAM,NETHERLANDS. RP Fankhauser, S, GLOBAL ENVIRONM FACIL SECRETARIAT,PRINCE,1818 H ST NW,WASHINGTON,DC 20433. AB Climate change is unique among the consequences of fossil fuel burning in its far reaching impact, both spatially and temporally. Earlier studies estimate the aggregated monetized damage due to climate change at 1.5 to 2.0% of world GDP (for 2 x CO2); the OECD would lose 1.0 to 1.5% of GDP; the developing countries 2.0 to 9.0%, according to these estimates. These figures are not comprehensive and highly uncertain. Newer studies increasingly emphasize adaptation, variability, extreme events, other (non-climate change) stress factors and the need for integrated assessment of damages. As a result, differences in impacts between regions and sectors have increased, the market impacts in developed countries tended to fall, and non-market impacts have become increasingly important. Marginal damages are more interesting from a policy point of view, Earlier estimates range from about US$5 to US$125 per tonne of carbon, with most estimates at the lower end of this range. These figures are based on polynomial functions in the level of climate change, but the rate of change may be equally important, as are the speed of adaptation, restoration and value adjustment. Furthermore, future vulnerability to climate change will be different from current vulnerability. On the whole, the market impacts fall (relatively) with economic growth while the non-market impacts rise (relatively) with growth. Copyright (C) 1996 Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. 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RP Gonzalez, P, US Geol Survey, Earth Resources Observat Syst Data Ctr, Washington, DC 20523 USA. AB Original field data show that forest species richness and tree density in the West African Sahel declined in the last half of the 20th century. Average forest species richness of areas of 4 km(2) in Northwest Senegal fell from 64 +/- 2 species ca 1945 to 43 +/- 2 species in 1993, a decrease significant at p < 0.001. Densities of trees of height greater than or equal to3 m declined from 10 +/- 0.3 trees ha(-1) in 1954 to 7.8 +/- 0.3 trees ha(-1) in 1989, also significant at p < 0.001. Standing wood biomass fell 2.1 t ha(-1) in the period 1956-1993, releasing CO2 at a rate of 60 kgC person(-1) yr(-1). These changes have shifted vegetation zones toward areas of higher rainfall at an average rate of 500 to 600 m yr(-1). Arid Sahel species have expanded in the north, tracking a concomitant retraction of mesic Sudan and Guinean species to the south. Multivariate analyses identify latitude and longitude, proxies for rainfall and temperature, as the most significant factors explaining tree and shrub distribution. The changes also decreased human carrying capacity to below actual population densities. The rural population of 45 people km(-2) exceeded the 1993 carrying capacity, for firewood from shrubs, of 13 people km(-2) (range 1 to 21 people km(-2)). As an adaptation strategy, ecological and socioeconomic factors favor the natural regeneration of local species over the massive plantation of exotic species. Natural regeneration is a traditional practice in which farmers select small field trees that they wish to raise to maturity, protect them, and prune them to promote rapid growth of the apical meristem. The results of this research provide evidence for desertification in the West African Sahel. These documented impacts of desertification foreshadow possible future effects of climate change. 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Carbosur, Montevideo, Uruguay. Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Soil Sci, Nanjing, Peoples R China. Agr & Agri Food Canada, Res Ctr, Lethbridge, AB T1J 4B1, Canada. Univ enclave, Inst Econ Growth, Delhi 110007, India. Texas A&M Univ, Dept Agr Econ, College Stn, TX 77843 USA. Colorado State Univ, NREL, Ft Collins, CO 80523 USA. Natl Univ Ireland Univ Coll Dublin, Sch Agr Food Sci & Vet Med, Dublin 4, Ireland. Kansas State Univ, Dept Agron, Manhattan, KS 66506 USA. All Russian Inst Agr Meteorol, Obninsk 249020, Kaluga Region, Russia. CSIRO, Sustainable Ecosyst, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia. Nanjing Agr Univ, Coll Resources & Environm Sci, Nanjing 210095, Peoples R China. Pryanishnikov All Russian Isnt Agrochem, VNIIA, Moscow 127550, Russia. Univ Hamburg, Dept Geosci, D-20146 Hamburg, Germany. Univ Hamburg, Dept Econ, D-20146 Hamburg, Germany. King Monkuts Univ Technol, Joint Grad Sch Energy & Environm, Bangkok 10140, Thailand. RP Smith, P, Univ Aberdeen, Sch Biol Sci, Cruickshank Bldg,St Machar Dr, Aberdeen AB24 3UU, Scotland. AB A recent assessment of agricultural greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions has demonstrated significant potential for mitigation, but suggests that the full mitigation will not be realized due to significant barriers to implementation. In this paper, we explore the constraints and barriers to implementation important for GHG mitigation in agriculture. We also examine how climate and non-climate policy in different regions of the world has affected agricultural GHG emissions in the recent past, and how it may affect emissions and mitigation implementation in the future. We examine the links between mitigation and adaptation and drives for sustainable development and the potential for agricultural GHG mitigation in the future. We describe how some countries have initiated climate and non-climate policies believed to have direct effects or synergistic effects on mitigating GHG emissions from agriculture. Global sharing of innovative technologies for efficient use of land resources and agricultural chemicals, to eliminate poverty and malnutrition, will significantly mitigate GHG emissions from agriculture. Previous studies have shown that as, less than 30% of the total biophysical potential for agricultural GHG mitigation might be achieved by 2030, due to price- and non-price-related barriers to implementation. The challenge for successful agricultural GHG mitigation will be to remove these barriers by implementing creative policies. Identifying policies that provide benefits for climate, as well as for aspects of economic, social and environmental sustainability, will be critical for ensuring that effective GHG mitigation options are widely implemented in the future. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. 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World Psychiat Assoc, Sect Urban Mental Hlth, New York, NY USA. Mt Sinai Sch Med, Div Psychiat Epidemiol, New York, NY 10003 USA. Mt Sinai Sch Med, Int Ctr Mental Hlth, New York, NY 10003 USA. RP Caracci, G, Mt Sinai Sch Med, Dept Psychiat, Cabrini Program, 227 E 19th St, New York, NY 10003 USA. AB Because half, of the world's population will soon live in cities, urban mental health will become a central issue for both urban and he th planning. Cultural factors and urban dynamics interplay in often creative but sometimes destructive ways. Vulnerable citizens may have difficulty adjusting to the high-pressure, urban environment. Understanding the impact of cultural factors on adaptation to urban life may greatly enhance our ability to prevent, assess, and treat mental disorders in urban dwellers. 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RP Sassaman, KE, Univ Florida, Dept Anthropol, 1112 Turlington Hall, Gainesville, FL 32610 USA. AB A review of recent research on complex hunter gatherers in North America suggests that age-old tensions between evolutionary and historical epistemologies continue to cultivate progress in anthropological understanding of sociocultural variation. Coupled with criticism of the evolutionary status of ethnographic foragers, archaeological documentation of variation among hunter-gatherer societies of the ancient past makes it difficult to generalize about causal relationships among environment, subsistence economy, and sociopolitical organization. Explanations for emergent complexity on the Pacific Coast that privilege environmental triggers for economic change have been challenged by new paleoenvironmental findings, while hypotheses suggesting that economic changes were preceded by, indeed caused by, transformations of existing structures of social inequality have gained empirical support. In its emergent data on mound construction apart from significant subsistence change, the southeastern United States gives pause to materialist explanations for complexity, turning the focus on symbolic and structural dimensions of practice that cannot be understood apart from particular histories of group interaction and tradition. Taken together, recent research on complex hunter-gatherers in North America has not only expanded the empirical record of sociocultural formations once deemed anomalous and/or derivative of European contact but also has contributed to the ongoing process of clarifying concepts of cultural complexity and how this process ultimately restructures anthropological theory. 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McConnell, WJ TI Global change and the intensification of agriculture in the tropics SO GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS LA English DT Review C1 Arizona State Univ, Dept Geog, Tempe, AZ 85287 USA. Indiana Univ, Ctr Study Inst Populat & Environm Change, Bloomington, IN 47405 USA. RP Keys, E, Arizona State Univ, Dept Geog, Box 870104, Tempe, AZ 85287 USA. AB Bridging understanding of local environmental change with regional and global patterns of land-use and land-cover change (LUCC) remains a key goal and challenge for our understanding of global environmental change. This meta-analysis attempts to bridge local and regional scales of LUCC by demonstrating the ways in which previously published case studies can be compared and used for a broader regional synthesis in the tropics. In addition to providing results from a meta-analysis, this paper suggests ways to make future case studies more widely comparable. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 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Univ Oxford, Comp Lab, Oxford OX1 3QD, England. Hadley Ctr Climate Predict & Res, Met Off, Exeter EX1 3PB, Devon, England. Rutherford Appleton Lab, Didcot OX11 0QX, Oxon, England. Univ London London Sch Econ & Polit Sci, London WC2A 2AE, England. Open Univ, Dept Earth Sci, Milton Keynes MK7 6AA, Bucks, England. Univ Reading, Dept Meteorol, Reading RG6 6BB, Berks, England. RP Stainforth, DA, Univ Oxford, Dept Phys, Parks Rd, Oxford OX1 3PU, England. AB The range of possibilities for future climate evolution(1-3) needs to be taken into account when planning climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies. This requires ensembles of multi-decadal simulations to assess both chaotic climate variability and model response uncertainty(4-9). Statistical estimates of model response uncertainty, based on observations of recent climate change(10-13), admit climate sensitivities - defined as the equilibrium response of global mean temperature to doubling levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide - substantially greater than 5 K. But such strong responses are not used in ranges for future climate change(14) because they have not been seen in general circulation models. Here we present results from the 'climateprediction.net' experiment, the first multi-thousand-member grand ensemble of simulations using a general circulation model and thereby explicitly resolving regional details(15-21). We find model versions as realistic as other state-of-the-art climate models but with climate sensitivities ranging from less than 2 K to more than 11 K. Models with such extreme sensitivities are critical for the study of the full range of possible responses of the climate system to rising greenhouse gas levels, and for assessing the risks associated with specific targets for stabilizing these levels. 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RP Chambers, LE, Bur Meteorol Res Ctr, GPO Box 1289, Melbourne, Vic 3001, Australia. AB In the 2001 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Third Assessment Report numerous studies of processes and species associated with regional temperature change were listed for the Northern Hemisphere (107 in North America, 458 in Europe, and 14 in Asia), but only a handful of studies for the Southern Hemisphere and, sadly, none for Australia were included. This article looks at the progress that Australia has made in addressing these knowledge gaps during the last three years. The article highlights the need for a national approach to the study of the associations between climate change and natural systems and suggests ways in which this could be achieved. 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RP Schnur, R, Max Planck Inst Meteorol, Bundesstr 55, D-20146 Hamburg, Germany. CR EASTERLING DR, 2000, SCIENCE, V289, P2068 HOUGHTON JT, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 KHARIN VV, 2000, J CLIMATE, V13, P3760 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 MEEHL GA, 2000, B AM METEOROL SOC, V81, P413 MILLY PCD, 2002, NATURE, V415, P514 PALMER TN, 2000, REP PROG PHYS, V63, P71 PALMER TN, 2002, NATURE, V415, P512 NR 8 TC 10 J9 NATURE BP 483 EP 484 PY 2002 PD JAN 31 VL 415 IS 6871 GA 516PQ UT ISI:000173564300027 ER PT J AU Perez, RT Amadore, LA Feir, RB TI Climate change impacts and responses in the Philippines coastal sector SO CLIMATE RESEARCH LA English DT Article C1 PAGASA, Quezon City 1104, Philippines. NAMRIA, DENR, CGSD, Manila, Philippines. RP Perez, RT, PAGASA, Agham Rd, Quezon City 1104, Philippines. AB The Manila Bay coastal area in The Philippines was evaluated for the possible consequences of accelerated sea level rise in the context of climate change and to assess adaptive responses to such threats. The coastal area is an important region in terms of commercial, industrial, agricultural, and aquacultural activities of The Philippines. Results show that areas along the coast if inundated by a 1 m sea level rise would include coastal barangays from 19 municipalities of Metro Manila, Bulacan, and Cavite and would cover an area of 5555 ha. Proposed response strategies consist of protecting the coast by building sea walls; institutional actions such as formulation of setback policies and construction regulations; and adaptive planning in the context of an integrated coastal zone management to address the short- and long-term problems, with the involvement of communities in the area. Information, education, and communication are essential along with the technical and scientific efforts to achieve a well-balanced adaptation plan. CR *DEP ENV NAT RES, 1996, PHIL ENV QUAL REP 19 *I CLIM ENV EN, 1997, REP SOC EC STUD MAN *IPCC, 1990, SEA LEV RIS CLIM CHA *NAT STAT OFF, 1990, PHIL STAT YB *US BUR FISH AQ RE, 1994, ANN REP 1993 *USAID DOH, 1993, LOOK PHIL POP SOC RE CARANDANG E, 1989, STUDY VARIATION SEA LEATHERMAN SP, 1995, J COASTAL RES, V14, P15 PEREZ RT, 1996, WATER AIR SOIL POLL, V92, P137 PIMENTEL AQ, 1993, LOCAL GOVT CODE 1991 POST JC, 1996, WORLD BANK MONOGRAPH, V9 WHITE AT, 1989, COASTAL ZONE MANAGEM NR 12 TC 0 J9 CLIMATE RES BP 97 EP 107 PY 1999 PD AUG 27 VL 12 IS 2-3 GA V3096 UT ISI:000171723000007 ER PT J AU Dessai, S Hulme, M TI Does climate adaptation policy need probabilities? SO CLIMATE POLICY LA English DT Review C1 Univ E Anglia, Sch Environm Sci, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. RP Dessai, S, Univ E Anglia, Sch Environm Sci, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. AB Estimating the likelihood of future climate change has become a priority objective within the research community. This is the case because of the advancement of science, because of user demand and because of the central role played by climate prediction in guiding adaptation policy. But are probabilities what climate policy really needs? This article reviews three key questions: (1) Why might we (not) need probabilities of climate change? (2) What are the problems in estimating probabilities? (3) How are researchers estimating probabilities? These questions are analysed within the context of adaptation to climate change. Overall, we conclude that the jury is still out on whether probabilities are useful for climate adaptation policy. The answer is highly context dependent and thus is a function of the goals and motivation of the policy analysis, the unit of analysis, timescale and the training of the analyst. Probability assessment in the context of climate change is always subjective, conditional and provisional. There are various problems in estimating the probability of future climate change, but reflexive human behaviour (i.e. actions explicitly influenced by information) is largely intractable in the context of prediction. Nonetheless, there is considerable scope to develop novel methodologies that combine conditional probabilities with scenarios and which are relevant for climate decision-making. 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P451 WILLIAMS LJ, 1998, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V39, P111 WILLOWS RI, 2003, CLIMATE ADAPTATION R WOLFE AK, 2001, ENV IMPACT ASSESSMEN YOHE GW, 1999, MITIGATION ADAPTATIO, V4, P319 ZAPERT R, 1998, ENERG ECON, V20, P571 ZENG LX, 2000, B AM METEOROL SOC, V81, P2075 ZIERVOGEL G, 2004, AGR SYST, P82 NR 126 TC 0 J9 CLIM POLICY BP 107 EP 128 PY 2004 VL 4 IS 2 GA 892TM UT ISI:000226672900002 ER PT J AU Yu, XJ Taplin, R Gilmour, AJ TI Climate convention implementation: An opportunity for the Pacific island nations to move toward sustainable energy systems SO ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article C1 MACQUARIE UNIV,SCH EARTH SCI,CLIMAT IMPACTS CTR,SYDNEY,NSW 2109,AUSTRALIA. RP Yu, XJ, MACQUARIE UNIV,GRAD SCH ENVIRONM,SYDNEY,NSW 2109,AUSTRALIA. AB The impacts of global warming are among the more serious environmental threats far the Pacific Island countries. These nations justifiably argue that developed countries should give immediate priority to the implementation of climate change mitigation policies because of the severe nature of potential greenhouse impacts for the Pacific Islands. Another immediate priority acknowledged by these nations is the need for development of adaptation policies that plan for adjustment or adaptation, where possible, to the foreshadowed impacts of climate change. This article does not focus on adaptation or mitigation policy directly but on an allied opportunity that exists for the Pacific Islands via the auspices of the Climate Convention, because the existing very costly energy systems used in the Pacific island region are fossil-fuel dependent. It is argued here that efforts can be made towards the development of energy systems that are ecologically sustainable because Pacific Island nations are eligible to receive assistance to introduce renewable energy technology and pursue energy conservation via implementation mechanisms of the Climate Convention and, in particular through transfer of technology and via joint implementation. II is contended that assistance in the form of finance, technology, and human resource development from developed countries and international organizations would provide sustainable benefits in improving the local Pacific island environments. It is also emphasized that mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions is not the responsibility of the Pacific Islands as they contribute very little on a per capita global scale and a tiny proportion of total global greenhouse gas emissions. 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Res Inst Soil Sci & Agrochem, RO-71331 Bucharest, Romania. RP Cuculeanu, V, Natl Inst Meteorol & Hydrol, Sos Bucuresti Ploiesti 97, RO-71552 Bucharest, Romania. AB The aim of this paper is to assess the potential effects of climate change on development, grain yield, and water balance for the main agricultural crops at 5 typical sites located in one of the most vulnerable zones of Romania. In addition, the paper evaluates possible adaptation measures of crop management to future climate changes. The vulnerability assessments focused on winter wheat and maize crops due to the particular importance of these crops in the cultivated areas and the difference in the genetic type of these crops reflected in their distinct physiological responses to CO2 concentration level (winter wheat is a C-3 crop, while maize is a C-4 crop). Outputs from 2 equilibrium 2 x CO2 general circulation models were used to develop climate change scenarios. CERES simulation models, linked with a seasonal analysis program included in the dedicated software DSSAT v3.0, were run for 30 yr with baseline climate and climate change scenarios. The results of crop simulations under climate change scenarios indicated that winter wheat benefits from the interaction of double CO2 concentrations and higher temperatures, while irrigated maize in southern Romania shows negative responses to climate change. The adverse impact of climate change on the maize crop can be lessened by using a longer maturing hybrid, sowing in the last week of April, applying a plant density of 5 plants m(-2), and increasing fertilization levels. CR *US COUNTR STUD MA, 1994, PO63 US COUNTR STUD BENIOFF R, 1996, VULNERABILITY ADAPTA GENG S, 1988, 204 U CAL DEP AGR RA GODWIN DC, 1989, USERS GUIDE CERES WH GOUDRIAAN J, 1990, ASA SPEC PUBL, V53, P111 RITCHIE JT, 1989, USERS GUIDE CERES MA SIMOTA C, 1997, COUNTRY STUDY CLIMAT TSUJI GI, 1994, DSSAT V3 0, V1 TSUJI GI, 1994, DSSAT V3 0, V2 TSUJI GI, 1994, DSSAT V3 0, V3 VANDEGEIJIN SC, 1993, CLIMATE CHANGE CROPS NR 11 TC 7 J9 CLIMATE RES BP 153 EP 160 PY 1999 PD AUG 27 VL 12 IS 2-3 GA V3096 UT ISI:000171723000013 ER PT J AU Rahman, A Bjorklund, G TI Workshop 4 (synthesis): securing food production under climate variability - exploring the options SO WATER SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY LA English DT Article C1 GeWa Consulting, S-75244 Uppsala, Sweden. RP Rahman, A, 40733 Laguna Pl, Fremont, CA 94539 USA. AB Climate variabilities may result in different types of dry spells, droughts or flood situations, having harmful effects on agricultural productivity and food security. Long-term trends in climate variabilities and climate extremes may be a consequence of an on-going climate change and would thus result in a more permanent change in the pre-conditions for food production. The presentations and discussion during the workshop concentrated on some different measures to be taken in addressing these kind of situations and in particularly on the adverse effects of dry spells, droughts and to some extent also floods. The different areas presented were examples from Bangladesh, the Indus river and delta region, examples from India (Tamil Nadu, Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh), Israel, Sri Lanka and Uzbekistan. NR 0 TC 0 J9 WATER SCI TECHNOL BP 147 EP 149 PY 2004 VL 49 IS 7 GA 834HB UT ISI:000222401100028 ER PT J AU Kennish, MJ TI Environmental threats and environmental future of estuaries SO ENVIRONMENTAL CONSERVATION LA English DT Review C1 Rutgers State Univ, Inst Marine & Coastal Sci, New Brunswick, NJ 08901 USA. RP Kennish, MJ, Rutgers State Univ, Inst Marine & Coastal Sci, New Brunswick, NJ 08901 USA. AB Estuaries exhibit a wide array of human impacts that can compromise their ecological integrity, because of rapid population growth and uncontrolled development in many coastal regions worldwide. Long-term environmental problems plaguing estuaries require remedial actions to improve the viability and health of these valuable coastal systems. Detailed examination of the effects of pollution inputs, the loss and alteration of estuarine habitat, and the role of other anthropogenic stress indicates that water quality in estuaries, particularly urbanized systems, is often compromised by the overloading of nutrients and organic matter, the influx of pathogens, and the accumulation of chemical contaminants. In addition, the destruction of fringing wetlands and the loss and alteration of estuarine habitats usually degrade biotic communities. Estuaries are characterized by high population densities of microbes, plankton, benthic flora and fauna, and nekton; however, these organisms tend to be highly vulnerable to human activities in coastal watersheds and adjoining embayments. Trends suggest that by 2025 estuaries will be most significantly impacted by habitat loss and alteration associated with a burgeoning coastal population, which is expected to approach six billion people. Habitat destruction has far reaching ecological consequences, modifying the structure, function, and controls of estuarine ecosystems and contributing to the decline of biodiversity. Other anticipated high priority problems are excessive nutrient and sewage inputs to estuaries, principally from land-based sources. These inputs will lead to the greater incidence of eutrophication as well as hypoxia and anoxia. During the next 25 years, overfishing is expected to become a more pervasive and significant anthropogenic factor, also capable of mediating global-scale change to estuaries. Chemical contaminants, notably synthetic organic compounds, will remain a serious problem, especially in heavily industrialized areas. Freshwater diversions appear to be an emerging global problem as the expanding coastal population places greater demands on limited freshwater supplies for agricultural, domestic, and industrial needs. Altered freshwater flows could significantly affect nutrient loads, biotic community structure, and the trophodynamics of estuarine systems. Ecological impacts that will be less threatening, but still damaging, are those caused by introduced species, sea level rise, coastal subsidence, and debris/litter. Although all of these disturbances can alter habitats and contribute to shifts in the composition of estuarine biotic communities, the overall effect will be partial changes to these ecosystem components. Several strategies may mitigate future impacts. 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SISSENWINE MP, 1996, OCEANOGRAPHY CONT RE, P293 SMAYDA TJ, 1990, TOXIC MARINE PHYTOPL, P29 SMITH VH, 1999, ENVIRON POLLUT, V100, P179 TAPP JF, 1993, J EXP MAR BIOL ECOL, V172, P67 TAYLOR P, 1993, MAR POLLUT BULL, V26, P120 THOMAS CA, 1999, ESTUAR COAST SHELF S, V48, P635 THOMPSON B, 1999, MAR ENVIRON RES, V48, P285 TINER RW, 1995, WETLANDS MARYLAND TOPFER K, 1990, MAR POLICY, V14, P259 TURNER A, 2000, ESTUAR COAST SHELF S, V50, P355 TURNER RE, 1997, WETLANDS ECOL MANAG, V4, P65 VALIELA I, 1995, MARINE ECOLOGICAL PR VALIELA I, 1997, ECOL APPL, V7, P358 VILES H, 1995, COASTAL PROBLEMS GEO VIVIANSMITH G, 2001, HDB RESTORING TIDAL, P39 WANIA F, 1998, ENVIRON POLLUT, V102, P3 WARWICK RM, 1979, ECOLOGICAL PROCESSES, P429 WEBER P, 1994, WORLD WATCH MAR, P20 WEINSTEIN JE, 1996, SUSTAINABLE DEV SE C, P135 WEIS P, 1993, ESTUAR COAST SHELF S, V36, P71 WESTON DP, 1990, MAR ECOL-PROG SER, V61, P233 WHITE WA, 1995, J COASTAL RES, V11, P788 WHITFIELD AK, 1998, ICHTHYOLOGICAL MONOG, V2 WILD SR, 1995, ENVIRON POLLUT, V88, P91 WILLIAMS GD, 2001, HDB RESTORING TIDAL, P235 WINDOM HL, 1992, MAR POLLUT BULL, V25, P32 WOLANSKI E, 1996, J MARINE SYST, V7, P267 WREN CD, 1995, HDB ECOTOXICOLOGY, P392 WRIGHT LD, 1995, MORPHODYNAMICS INNER WUEBBLES DJ, 1999, ENVIRON POLLUT, V100, P57 YAP HT, 1992, MAR POLLUT BULL, V25, P37 ZEDLER JB, 1996, ECOL APPL, V6, P84 ZEDLER JB, 1999, RESTOR ECOL, V7, P69 ZEDLER JB, 2001, HDB RESTORING TIDAL NR 180 TC 5 J9 ENVIRON CONSERV BP 78 EP 107 PY 2002 PD MAR VL 29 IS 1 GA 557TJ UT ISI:000175924000006 ER PT J AU Gaiser, T de Barros, I Lange, FM Williams, JR TI Water use efficiency of a maize/cowpea intercrop on a highly acidic tropical soil as affected by liming and fertilizer application SO PLANT AND SOIL LA English DT Article C1 Univ Hohenheim, Inst Soil Sci & Land Evaluat, D-70593 Stuttgart, Germany. CIRAD, F-34398 Montpellier 5, France. Texas Agr Exptl Stn, Temple, TX USA. RP Gaiser, T, Univ Hohenheim, Inst Soil Sci & Land Evaluat, D-70593 Stuttgart, Germany. AB Due to global warming, there is a need to increase the water use efficiency of crops under rainfed agriculture, particularly in semi-arid regions. Therefore, the effect of NPK fertilizer application (with or without liming) on the water use efficiency of a maize/cowpea intercropping system was investigated in the semi-arid part of Brazil. The crops were grown on a strongly acidic, sandy soil with three treatments: (i) Complete NPK fertilizer application with lime (Compl), (ii) Complete NPK fertilizer application without lime (Compl-L) and (iii) Control. On the average, dry matter production was 2.6 times higher with the Compl treatment than in the Control and 1.6 times higher than in the Compl-L treatment. The soil water balance was calculated with two different model approaches (HILLFLOW and EPICSEAR). When checked against measured soil water content during the growing period, both models produced accurate results, but only EPICSEAR was sensitive to the effects of liming and fertilizer application on soil water balance and dry matter production at this site. Comparison between the Compl and the Compl-L treatments shows that the increase in transpirational water use efficiency (WUET) (+63 and +80%, respectively) is mainly due to the application of NPK. Although the site is highly acid, liming was of minor importance for increasing the WUET. However, observations and simulations demonstrate that, through the additional application of lime, the gross water use efficiency (WUEC) in a maize/cowpea intercropping system can be increased by 60% compared to sole application of NPK and by more than 160% compared to the control. CR *EMBRAPA, 1981, SIST CLASS SOL 2A AP *FAO, 1988, 60 FAO MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 *USDA, USDA TECHN B, V1768 *USDA, 1990, EPIC ER PROD IMP CAL BRONSTERT A, 1995, MODELLSYSTEM HILLFLO COOPER PJM, 1987, FIELD CROP RES, V16, P67 DEBARROS I, 2002, 64 U HOH I BOD STAND ECK HV, 1988, AGRON J, V80, P902 GAISER T, 2000, AUST J SOIL RES, V38, P523 GREGORY PJ, 1988, CHALLENGES DRYLAND A, P171 GREGORY PJ, 1989, SOIL CROP WATER MANA, P85 HUNDEKAR ST, 1999, FERT NEWS, V44, P59 KLAPP E, 1962, Z KULTURTECH, V3, P1 PAPULA A, 1982, MATH CHEMIKER PAYNE WA, 1992, CROP SCI, V32, P1010 SABOYA LMF, 2002, NEOTR EC P GERM BRAZ SCHULZE E, 1957, Z ACKER PFLANZENBAU, V103, P22 SHIKLOMANOV I, 2001, INT HYDROLOGICAL SER SINCLAIR TR, 1984, BIOSCIENCE, V34, P36 SIVAKUMAR MVK, 1999, J AGR SCI 2, V132, P139 VEGH KR, 1998, ACTA AGRON HUNG, V46, P35 ZAONGO CGL, 1997, PLANT SOIL, V197, P119 NR 23 TC 3 J9 PLANT SOIL BP 165 EP 171 PY 2004 PD JUN VL 263 IS 1-2 GA 876ZK UT ISI:000225537400015 ER PT J AU Bossel, H TI Policy assessment and simulation of actor orientation for sustainable development SO ECOLOGICAL ECONOMICS LA English DT Article C1 Univ Kassel, Ctr Environm Syst Res, D-34289 Zierenberg, Germany. RP Bossel, H, Univ Kassel, Ctr Environm Syst Res, Galenkoppel 6B, D-34289 Zierenberg, Germany. AB Understanding, assessing, and simulating behavior requires knowledge of the precepts that are explicitly or implicitly orienting behavior. Human actors can be viewed as (conscious) self-organizing systems attempting to remain viable in a diverse environment containing other self-organizing systems (other human actors, organisms, ecosystems, etc.), all driven by their own viability (sustainability) interests. These fundamental system interests, or basic orientors, have emerged in response to general environmental properties and are therefore identical across self-organizing systems: existence, effectiveness, freedom of action, security, adaptability, coexistence. Even in simulated actors learning to 'survive' in a difficult environment, the basic orientors emerge in the (simulated) evolutionary process - but different actors may evolve into different 'cultural types' with different orientor emphasis. Since balanced attention to all basic orientors is crucial for viability, the set of orientors can be used to derive indicators that Facilitate comprehensive viability and sustainability assessments. The paper outlines the theoretical approach of 'orientation theory' and its application to the assessment and simulation of sustainable development issues. The formal approach of mapping indicators on basic orientors and assessing sustainability dynamics is illustrated using Worldwatch indicator time series. In an actor simulation this approach is used to successfully guide a small global model onto a sustainable path with high 'quality of life'. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. 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AAFC, PFRA, Regina, SK S4P 4L2, Canada. EES Pty Ltd, Gaborone, Botswana. Univ Botswana, Dept Environm Sci, Gaborone, Botswana. FAB, Gaborone, Botswana. Conservat Int, Maun, Botswana. RP Ringrose, S, Harry Oppenheimer Okavango Res Ctr, Private Bag 285, Maun, Botswana. AB For purposes of suggesting adaptive and policy options regarding the sustained use of forestry resources in Botswana, an analysis of the whole countrywide satellite data (showing the mean present distribution of vegetation in terms of species abundance and over all density) and the projection of vegetation cover changes using a simulation approach under different climatic scenarios were undertaken. The analysis revealed that changes in vegetation cover types due to human and natural causes have taken place since the first vegetation map was produced in 1971. In the southwest, the changes appear to be more towards an increasing prevalence of thorn trees; in the eastern part of the country where widespread bush encroachment is taking place, the higher population density suggests more human induced (agrarian-degradation) effects, while in the sparsely settled central Kalahari region, changes from tree savanna to shrubs may be indicative of the possible influence of climate with the associated effects of fires and local adaptations. Projection of future vegetation changes to about 2050 indicates degeneration of the major vegetation types due to the expected drying. Based on the projected changes in vegetation, current adaptive and policy arrangements are not adequate and as such a shift from the traditional adaptive approaches to community-based types is suggested. Defining forestry management units and adopting different management plans for the main vegetation stands that are found in Botswana are the major policy options. 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Fdn Eni Enrico Mattei, I-20123 Milan, Italy. Univ Brescia, I-25122 Brescia, Italy. Fdn Eni Enrico Mattei, I-25122 Brescia, Italy. Univ Padua, I-35100 Padua, Italy. Fdn Eni Enrico Mattei, I-35100 Padua, Italy. RP Castelnuovo, E, Bocconi Univ, Corso Magenta 63, I-20123 Milan, Italy. AB What impact does ecological uncertainty have on agents' decisions concerning domestic emissions abatement, physical investments, and R&D expenditures? How sensitive are the answers to these questions when we move from exogenous to endogenous technical change? To investigate these issues we modify the ETC-RICE model described in Buonanno et al. ( 2001) by embedding in it a hazard rate function as in Bosello and Moretto ( 1999). With this model at hand we run numerical optimisations focusing our attention on the control variables of the representative agents, i.e., domestic abatement rate, investments in physical capital, and R&D spending, as well as on the endogenous patterns of GDP level and CO2 emissions. Our results show that uncertainty strongly influences agents behaviour; in particular, agents slow down their emissions in order to maintain a more sustainable growth path. In addition, R&D expenditures trigger the "engine of growth" exclusively when environmental technical change is formalized in an endogenous fashion. However, even if environmental uncertainty may stimulate technical change, long-run growth it turns out to be negatively affected by the former, as also predicted by Clarke and Reed ( 1994) Tsur and Zemel (1996) and Bosello and Moretto (1999). CR *IPCC, 1996, CLIM CHANG 1995 EC S WATSON RT, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, V1, P1 *IPCC, 1996, CLIM CHANG 1995 SCI ALDY JE, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE AGEND BARRO RJ, 1999, EC GROWTH BENTLEY CR, 1997, SCIENCE, V275, P1077 BOSELLO F, 1999, 8099 FEEM BUONANNO P, 2001, 61 FEEM BUONANNO P, 2001, INT AGREEMENTS POLIT, V3, P379 CARRARO C, 1994, EUR ECON REV, V38, P545 CARRARO C, 1998, ENERG ECON, V20, P463 CLARKE HR, 1994, J ECON DYN CONTROL, V18, P991 CROPPER ML, 1976, J ENVIRON ECON MANAG, V3, P1 DOWLATABADI H, 1995, 6 GLOB WARM C 1995 S EYCKMANS J, 1999, SIMULATING RICE COAL FISHER AC, 2000, RESOUR ENERGY ECON, V22, P189 GALEOTTI M, 2002, UNPUB TRADITIONAL EN GJERDE J, 1999, RESOUR ENERGY ECON, V21, P289 GOULDER LH, 2000, J ENVIRON ECON MANAG, V39, P1 GRILICHES Z, 1979, BELL J ECON, V10, P92 GRILICHES Z, 1984, R D PATENTS PRODUCTI GRUBB M, 1997, ENERG POLICY, V25, P159 HALL B, 2000, RES POLICY, V29, P449 HEAL G, 1984, ADV APPL MICROECONOM, V3, P151 JAFFE AB, 2001, TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE JOURDAIN B, 2001, ANN I H POINCARE-AN, V18, P1 KERR RA, 2000, SCIENCE, V281, P499 KIEFER NM, 1988, J ECON LIT, V26, P646 KLETTE TJ, 2000, RES POLICY, V29, P471 KREMER M, STIMULATING IND R D LARSON BA, 1994, ECOL ECON, V11, P77 LOSCHEL A, 2002, 402 FEEM WP MANNE AS, 1992, BUYING GREENHOUSE IN MANNE AS, 1996, HEDGING STRATEGIES G NORDHAUS WD, 1994, MANAGING GLOBAL COMM NORDHAUS WD, 1996, AM ECON REV, V86, P741 NORDHAUS WD, 1997, IIASA WORKSH IND TEC NORDHAUS WD, 1999, 3 TOUL C ENV RES EC PECK SC, 1993, RESOUR ENERGY ECON, V15, P71 PINDYCK RS, 2000, RESOUR ENERGY ECON, V22, P233 PLAMBECK EL, 1996, ENERG POLICY, V24, P783 ROMER PM, 2000, INNOVATION POLICY EC SCHELLING TC, 1992, AM ECON REV, V82, P1 TOL RSJ, 1997, ENVIRON MODEL ASSESS, V3, P3 TORVANGER A, 1997, ENVIRON RESOUR ECON, V9, P103 TRAJTENBERG M, 2000, 7930 NBER WP TSUR Y, 1996, J ECON DYN CONTROL, V20, P1289 WEYANT JP, 1997, IIASA WORKSH IND TEC WEYANT JP, 1999, ENVIRON MODEL ASSESS, V4, P67 YOHE GW, 1996, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V2, P87 NR 50 TC 0 J9 ENVIRON MODEL ASSESS BP 291 EP 301 PY 2003 PD DEC VL 8 IS 4 GA 744YV UT ISI:000186661200003 ER PT J AU Changnon, SA Pielke, RA Changnon, D Sylves, RT Pulwarty, R TI Human factors explain the increased losses from weather and climate extremes SO BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY LA English DT Article C1 Illinois State Water Survey, Atmospher Environm Sect, Champaign, IL 61820 USA. Natl Ctr Atmospher Res, Environm & Societal Impacts Grp, Boulder, CO 80307 USA. No Illinois Univ, Dept Geog, De Kalb, IL 60115 USA. Univ Delaware, Dept Polit Sci, Newark, DE USA. NOAA, Off Global Programs, Silver Springs, MD USA. RP Changnon, SA, Illinois State Water Survey, Atmospher Environm Sect, 2204 Griffith Dr, Champaign, IL 61820 USA. AB Societal impacts from weather and climate extremes, and trends in those impacts, are a function of both climate and society. United States losses resulting from weather extremes have grown steadily with time. Insured property losses have trebled since 1960, but deaths from extremes have not grown except for those due to floods and heat waves. Data on losses are difficult to find and must be carefully adjusted before meaningful assessments can be made. Adjustments to historical loss data assembled since the late 1940s shows that most of the upward trends found in financial losses are due to societal shifts leading to ever-growing vulnerability to weather and climate extremes. Geographical locations of the large loss trends establish that population growth and demographic shifts are the major factors behind the increasing losses from weather-climate extremes. Most weather and climate extremes in the United States do not exhibit steady, multidecadal increases found in their loss values. Without major changes in societal responses to weather and climate extremes, it is reasonable to predict ever-increasing losses even without any detrimental climate changes. Recognition of these trends in societal vulnerability to weather-climate extremes suggests that the present focus on mitigating the greenhouse effect should be complemented by a greater emphasis on adaptation. Identifying and understanding this societal vulnerability has great importance for understanding the nation's economy, in guiding governmental policies, and for planning for future mitigative activities including ways for society to adapt to possible effects of a changing climate. CR *AM INS ASS, 1999, PROP CAS INS CLIM CH *BIP TASK FORC FUN, 1996, 1044 BIP TASK FORC F *CACNH, 1999, COSTS NAT DIS FRAM A *HEINZ STUD GROUP, 1999, HIDD COSTS COAST HAZ *IPCC, 1996, CLIM CHANG 1995 SCI CHANGNON D, 1997, J APPL METEOROL, V36, P1202 CHANGNON D, 1998, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V38, P435 CHANGNON SA, 1995, PREPARING GLOBAL CHA, P47 CHANGNON SA, 1996, B AM METEOROL SOC, V77, P1497 CHANGNON SA, 1996, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V32, P411 CHANGNON SA, 1996, GREAT FLOOD 1993, P3 CHANGNON SA, 1997, B AM METEOROL SOC, V78, P425 CHANGNON SA, 1997, P WORKSH SOC EC IMP, P19 CHANGNON SA, 1999, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V42, P51 CHANGNON SA, 1999, METEOR APPL, V5, P125 CHANGNON SA, 1999, NAT HAZARDS, V18, P287 FLAVIN C, 1994, WORLD WATCH, V7, P10 KARL TR, 1998, B AM METEOROL SOC, V79, P231 KUNKEL KE, 1999, B AM METEOROL SOC, V80, P1077 KUNREUTHER H, 1998, PAYING PRICE, P1 LARSON E, 1998, TIME, V52, P63 LECOMTE E, 1993, CLIMATE CHANGE INSUR, P13 PIELKE RA, 1995, HURRICANE ANDREW S F PIELKE RA, 1997, P WORKSH SOC EC IMP, P3 PIELKE RA, 1998, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V8, P159 PIELKE RA, 1998, WEATHER FORECAST 2, V13, P621 PIELKE RA, 1999, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V42, P118 PIELKE RA, 1999, FLOODS RIEBSAME WE, 1991, DROUGHT NATURAL RESO ROTH RJ, 1996, IMPACTS RESPONSES WE, P101 SYLVES R, 1996, DISASTER MANAGEMENT SYLVES R, 1998, DISASTERS COASTAL ZO VANDERVINK G, 1998, EOS, V79, P536 NR 33 TC 14 J9 BULL AMER METEOROL SOC BP 437 EP 442 PY 2000 PD MAR VL 81 IS 3 GA 305EB UT ISI:000086525500004 ER PT J AU PenningRowsell, EC Johnson, C Tunstall, S TI 'Signals' from pre-crisis discourse: Lessons from UK flooding for global environmental policy change? SO GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS LA English DT Article C1 Middlesex Univ, Flood Hazard Res Ctr, Enfield EN3 4SA, Middx, England. RP Penning-Rowsell, E, Middlesex Univ, Flood Hazard Res Ctr, Enfield EN3 4SA, Middx, England. AB This paper evaluates policy accelerations after past flood crises in the UK (in 1947, 1953, 1998 and 2000) and explores their value as surrogates or metaphors for how governments might respond with policy changes to the local expressions of global climate and environmental change in the future. We find that these past policy change accelerations were, in general, not based on the development of new ideas but on bringing forward existing ideas that were already the subject of widespread professional or public discourse. We suggest, therefore, that we may be able to detect now, as 'signals' within current policy discourse, the embryos of the policy shifts that are likely to come about as part of any crisis-response adaptation to future climate change. If this is the case, then we believe that those with policy responsibilities now may be able to begin carefully and proactively to prepare the ground for such policy changes ahead of the crisis events that will alone trigger their acceleration and adoption. (C) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 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RP Magadza, CHD, Univ Zimbabwe, Lake Kariba Res Stn, Box 48, Kariba, Zimbabwe. AB Climate change impacts on African human settlements arise from a number of climate change-related causes, notably sea level changes, impacts on water resources, extreme weather events, food security, increased health risks from vector borne diseases, and temperature-related morbidity in urban environments. Some coastlines and river deltas of Africa have densely populated low-lying areas, which would be affected by a rise in sea level. Other coastal settlements will be subjected to increased coastal erosion. Recent flooding in East Africa highlighted the vulnerability of flood plain settlements and the need to develop adaptive strategies for extreme weather events management and mitigation. In the semi arid and arid zones many settlements are associated with inland drainage water sources. Increases in drought will enhance water supply related vulnerabilities. Inter-basin and international water transfers raise the need for adequate legal frameworks that ensure equity among participating nations. Similarly, water supply and irrigation reservoirs in seasonal river catchments might fail, leading to poor sanitation in urban areas as well as food shortage. Hydroelectric power generation could be restricted in drought periods, and where it is a major contributor to the energy budget, reduced power generation could lead to a multiplicity of other impacts. States are advised to develop other sources of renewable energy. Temperature changes will lead to altered distribution of disease vectors such as mosquitoes, making settlements currently free of vector borne diseases vulnerable. Rapid breeding of the housefly could create a menace associated with enteric disorders, especially in conditions of poor sanitation. The dry savannahs of Africa are projected as possible future food deficit areas. Recurrent crop failures would lead to transmigration into urban areas. Pastoralists are likely to undertake more trans-boundary migrations and probably come into conflict with settled communities. Adaptive measures will involve methods of coastal defences (where applicable), a critical review of the energy sector, both regionally and nationally, a rigorous adherence to city hygiene procedures, an informed agricultural industry that is capable of adapting to changing climate in terms of cropping strategies, and innovations in environment design to maximise human comfort at minimum energy expenditure. In the savannah and arid areas water resource management systems will be needed to optimise water resource use and interstate co-operation where such resources are shared. Climate change issues discussed here raise the need for state support for more research and education in impacts of climate change on human settlements in Africa. CR 1992, SPORE, V39, P1 1997, MICROSOFT ENCARTER 7 CAPONERA DA, 1996, REV EUROPEAN COMMUNI, V5, P97 COUSINS B, 1996, IDS BULL-I DEV STUD, V27, P41 DELATTRE A, 1988, OECD OBSERVER, V153, P19 HULME M, 1995, CLIMATE CHANGE SO AF JALLOW BP, 1996, CLIMATE RES, V6, P165 LADO C, 1995, INDONESIAN J GEOGRAP, V27, P31 MAGADZA CHD, 1984, ZIMBABWE SCI NEWS, V18, P63 MAGADZA CHD, 1994, FOOD POLICY, V19, P165 MAGADZA CHD, 1996, LAKE RESERVOIR RES M, V2, P89 MCMICHAEL AJ, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE HUMAN MIMURA N, 1998, GLOBAL WARMING POTEN REIBSAME WE, 1995, CLIMATE CHANGES INT SALAM AM, 1991, SCI TECHNOLOGY SCI E STRZEPEK KK, 1996, CLIMATE RES, V6 WATSON RT, 1998, REGIONAL IMPACTS CLI, V1, P1 WORLD B, 1996, ENV SUSTAINABLE DEV NR 18 TC 1 J9 ENVIRON MONIT ASSESS BP 193 EP 205 PY 2000 PD MAR VL 61 IS 1 GA 300UB UT ISI:000086270100016 ER PT J AU Ogden, J Basher, L McGlone, M TI Fire, forest regeneration and links with early human habitation: Evidence from New Zealand SO ANNALS OF BOTANY LA English DT Article C1 Univ Auckland, Sch Environm & Marine Sci, Auckland 1, New Zealand. Landcare Res, Lincoln, New Zealand. RP Ogden, J, Univ Auckland, Sch Environm & Marine Sci, Auckland 1, New Zealand. AB Zealand forests burn less frequently than tussock grasslands, heath or shrublands. Species composition, past disturbance and stand condition determine inflammability and fuel load, and consequent fire intensity and spatial extent. Before people arrived, fires were ignited by lightning during drought years on the eastern sides of both islands. Volcanism occurring every 300-600 years was associated with fires in the central North Island. A review of radiocarbon-dated charcoal from the eastern South Island, and of evidence for fire in pollen profiles from the North Island, provide the basis for an assessment of fire frequency. Forest fires have occurred on both New Zealand's islands throughout the Holocene at least every few centuries, until the last millennium when frequency increased. The 'return time' of fire at any one place in the forested landscape was probably one or two millennia. Burned areas usually succeeded to forest again before the next inflagration. Consequently fire adaptation is infrequent in the New Zealand flora, and Polynesian forest clearance was rapid and largely permanent. There is an indication of an increase in fire frequency in the late Holocene, and a clear signal associated with people approx. 700 years BP. Separating the earliest anthropogenic fires from the background level of natural burning will be difficult without additional evidence. (C) 1998 Annals of Botany Company. 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Purdue Univ, Dept Agr Econ, W Lafayette, IN 47907 USA. Cent Res Inst Dryland Agr, Hyderabad, Andhra Pradesh, India. RP Southworth, J, Indiana Univ, Sch Publ & Environm Affairs, 1315 E 10th St, Bloomington, IN 47405 USA. AB This modeling study addresses the potential impacts of climate change and changing climate variability due to increased atmospheric CO2 concentration on soybean (Glycine max (L.) Merrill) yields in the Midwestern Great Lakes Region. Nine representative farm locations and six future climate scenarios were analyzed using the crop growth model SOYGRO. Under the future climate scenarios earlier planting dates produced soybean yield increases of up to 120% above current levels in the central and northern areas of the study region. In the southern areas, comparatively small increases (0.1 to 20%) and small decreases (-0.1 to -25%) in yield are found. The decreases in yield occurred under the Hadley Center greenhouse gas run (HadCM2-GHG), representing a greater warming, and the doubled climate variability scenario - a more extreme and variable climate. Optimum planting dates become later in the southern regions. CO2 fertilization effects (555 ppmv) are found to be significant for soybean, increasing yields around 20% under future climate scenarios. For the study region as a whole the climate changes modeled in this research would have an overall beneficial effect, with mean soybean yield increases of 40% over current levels. CR *IPCC, 1990, SCI ASS CLIM CHANG R *IPCC, 1995, 2 ASS REP CLIM CHANG *NAT AGR STAT SERV, 1997, CENS AGR *NAT ASS SYNTH TEA, 2001, CLIM CHANG IMP US PO, P620 *USDA, 1994, MISC PUB USDA, V1492 ADAMS RM, 1990, NATURE, V345, P219 ALLEN LH, 1987, GLOBAL BIOGEOCHEM CY, V1, P1 BARROW E, 1996, CLIMATE RES, V7, P195 CARNELL RE, 1998, CLIM DYNAM, V14, P369 CHIOTTI QP, 1995, J RURAL STUD, V11, P335 DHAKHWA GB, 1997, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V87, P253 FERRIS R, 1998, CROP SCI, V38, P948 FISCHER G, 1995, ASA SPECIAL PUBLICAT, V59 HARRISON PA, 1996, CLIMATE RES, V7, P225 HOOGENBOOM G, 1995, ASA SPEC PUBL, V59, P51 HULME M, 1999, NATURE, V397, P688 JONES J, 1988, FLORIDA AGR EXPT STA JONES JW, 1999, P WORLD SOYB RES C A, V6, P209 KAISER HM, 1995, AGR DIMENSIONS GLOBA KITTEL TG, 1996, VEMAP PHASE 1 DATABA LAL M, 1999, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V93, P53 LIANG XZ, 1995, GLOBAL PLANET CHANGE, V10, P217 MEARNS LO, 1984, J CLIM APPL METEOROL, V23, P1601 MEARNS LO, 1995, ASA SPEC PUBL, V59, P123 MEARNS LO, 1996, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V32, P257 MEARNS LO, 1997, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V35, P367 PEIRIS DR, 1996, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V79, P271 PHILLIPS DL, 1996, AGR SYST, V52, P481 RIND D, 1991, DEV ATMOSPHERIC SCI, V19 RITCHIE JT, 1989, POTENTIAL EFFECTS GL ROSENBERG NJ, 1992, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V21, P385 ROSENZWEIG C, 1994, IMPLICATIONS CLIMATE SCHIMMELPFENNIG D, 1996, AER740 USDA NAT RES SEMENOV MA, 1996, CLIMATE RES, V7, P271 SEMENOV MA, 1997, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V35, P397 SHAW RH, 1966, PLANT ENV EFFICIENT, P73 SIQUEIRA OJ, 1994, IMPLICATIONS CLIMATE SOUTHWORTH J, 2000, AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON, V82, P139 SPECHT JE, 1986, CROP SCI, V26, P922 THORNTON PK, 1997, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V83, P95 WITTWER SH, 1995, FOOD CLIMATE CARBON WOLF J, 1996, CLIMATE RES, V7, P253 NR 42 TC 2 J9 CLIMATIC CHANGE BP 447 EP 475 PY 2002 PD JUN VL 53 IS 4 GA 545JT UT ISI:000175214400003 ER PT J AU KOSOBUD, RF DALY, TA TI GLOBAL CONFLICT OR COOPERATION OVER THE CO2 CLIMATE IMPACT SO KYKLOS LA English DT Article C1 ARGONNE NATL LAB,ARGONNE,IL 60439. RP KOSOBUD, RF, UNIV ILLINOIS,CHICAGO,IL 60680. CR BUTZER KW, 1980, PROF GEOGR, V32, P269 DARGE RC, 1979, FEB P WORLD CLIM C G, P652 EDMONDS J, 1983, GLOBAL CARBON EMISSI HAEFELE W, 1981, ENERGY FINITE WORLD KEELING CD, 1973, TELLUS, V25, P1974 KENNY SM, 1977, NUCLEAR POWER ISSUES KOSOBUD RF, 1983, GOVT ENERGY POLICY LAURMANN JA, 1983, CARBON DIOXIDE CURRE MANABE S, 1967, J ATMOS SCI, V24, P241 MANNE AS, 1976, BELL J ECON, V7, P379 NORDHAUS WD, 1980, 565 COWL F DISC PAP NORDHAUS WD, 1983, CHANGING CLIMATE REVELLE RR, 1983, CHANGING CLIMATE NR 13 TC 9 J9 KYKLOS BP 638 EP 659 PY 1984 VL 37 IS 4 GA ACC76 UT ISI:A1984ACC7600006 ER PT J AU Kahn, ME TI Two measures of progress in adapting to climate change SO GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS LA English DT Article C1 Tufts Univ, Medford, MA 02155 USA. RP Kahn, ME, Stanford Univ, Dept Econ, Stanford, CA 94305 USA. AB Adaptation will play a key role in determining the economic and social costs of climate change. One important measure of adaptation is reductions in deaths caused by climate events. This paper uses two new data sets to test the hypothesis that, in recent years, climate events cause less deaths than in the past. Using data on deaths caused by natural disasters and data on skin cancer death rates in warmer and cooler US states, this paper reports evidence in favor of the adaptation progress hypothesis. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR GALLUP JL, 1999, INT REGIONAL SCI REV, V22, P179 KUNST AE, 1993, AM J EPIDEMIOL, V137, P331 MCCARTHY J, 2001, HUMAN HLTH, P453 MIRZA MMQ, 2002, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V12, P127 NICHOLLS RJ, 1999, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHA S, V9, PS69 PIVER WT, 1999, ENVIRON HEALTH PERSP, V107, P911 SIDDIQUE AK, 1991, J DIARRHOEAL DIS RES, V9, P310 SMITHERS J, 1997, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V7, P129 TOBEY JA, 1992, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V2, P215 WALKER J, 2002, WORLD DISASTER REPOR NR 10 TC 0 J9 GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANGE BP 307 EP 312 PY 2003 PD DEC VL 13 IS 4 GA 751BT UT ISI:000187033500007 ER PT J AU NYERGES, AE TI THE ECOLOGY OF WEALTH-IN-PEOPLE - AGRICULTURE, SETTLEMENT, AND SOCIETY ON THE PERPETUAL FRONTIER SO AMERICAN ANTHROPOLOGIST LA English DT Article RP NYERGES, AE, UNIV KENTUCKY,DEPT ANTHROPOL,LEXINGTON,KY 40506. AB For the Susu of northwestern Sierra Leone, rural settlement dynamics reflect a frontier culture history and the perpetuation of frontier sociopolitical arrangements in village life. Under frontier conditions people are wealth. The competition among male elders for wealth-in-people is a major determinant of village movements and the organization and deployment of agricultural labor. In this article, I explore the implications of frontier social arrangements, as illustrated in the careers and lives of individual elder men, for the ecology of swidden agriculture. One significant result is a competitive scramble for labor, which both hinders crop production and leads to problems of intensification and resource degradation. I conclude that local problems of resource management are the result of individual efforts to achieve and maintain social position in the context of established systems of hierarchy. CR 1928, PARLIAMENTARY PAPERS, V18 *US POP REF BUR, 1988, 1988 WORLD POP DAT S ANTHONY DW, 1990, AM ANTHROPOL, V92, P895 BARNES JA, 1962, MAN, V62, P5 BENNETT JW, 1976, ECOLOGICAL TRANSITIO BILLINGTON RA, 1967, FRONTIER, P3 BLEDSOE CH, 1980, WOMEN MARRIAGE KPELL BOHANNAN P, 1954, AFRICA, V24, P2 BOSERUP E, 1965, CONDITIONS AGR GROWT BOSERUP E, 1981, POPULATION TECHNOLOG BROOKS GE, 1985, WORKING PAPERS SERIE, V1 BROOKS GE, 1986, CAH ETUD AFR, V26, P43 CAMERON N, 1991, YEARB PHYS ANTHROPOL, V34, P211 COLSON E, 1988, SCIENCE, V240, P88 CONANT FP, 1962, ANN NY ACAD SCI, V96, P539 CONANT FP, 1989, AM ANTHROPOL, V91, P1074 CONKLIN HC, 1957, FAO12 FOR DEV PAP COQUERYVIDROVIT.C, 1985, POLITICAL EC CONT AF, P94 CUNNINGHAM MK, 1991, THESIS U KENTUCKY CURRENS G, 1976, HUM ORGAN, V35, P355 CURRENS GE, 1974, THESIS U OREGON ANN CURRENS GE, 1975, LIBERIAN EC MANAGEME, V3, P39 DAZEVEDO W, 1962, ANN NY ACAD SCI, V96, P512 DONALD L, 1970, AFRICAN FOOD PRODUCT, P164 DORJAHN VR, 1958, AM ANTHROPOL, V60, P83860 DORJAHN VR, 1962, J AFR HIST, V3, P390 ELLEN R, 1982, ENV SUBSISTENCE SYST FLANAGAN JG, 1989, ANNU REV ANTHROPOL, V18, P245 FORAY CP, 1977, AFRICAN HIST DICT FRECHOU H, 1962, CAHIERS I SCI EC 5 S, V129, P109 GEERTZ C, 1963, AGR INVOLUTION PROCE GOODY J, 1971, TECHNOLOGY TRADITION GUYER JI, 1990, HUM ECOL, V18, P143 HARRIS M, 1979, CULTURAL MATERIALISM HASWELL M, 1975, NATURE POVERTY CASE HEMMING J, 1985, CHANGES AMAZON BASIN HOPKINS NS, 1971, PAPERS MANDING, P99 HOWARD AM, 1975, PAN AFRICAN J, V8, P247 HOWARD AM, 1979, LIBERIAN STUDIES MON, V6, P45 HUSSASHMORE R, 1989, AFRICAN FOOD PRODU 1 ISAAC BL, 1982, CENTRAL ISSUES ANTHR, V4, P1 JACKSON M, 1977, KURANKO DIMENSIONS S JANZEN DH, 1973, SCIENCE, V182, P1212 JOHNNY M, 1981, AFRICA, V51, P596 KARP I, 1978, AFRICA, V48, P1 KOPYTOFF I, 1977, SLAVERY AFRICA HIST, P3 KOPYTOFF I, 1987, AFRICAN FRONTIER REP, P121 KOPYTOFF I, 1987, AFRICAN FRONTIER REP, P3 LITTLE KL, 1948, AFR AFF, V47, P23 LITTLE KL, 1948, SOCIOL REV, V40, P37 LITTLE KL, 1951, MENDE RICE FARM IT 2, V5, P227 LITTLE KL, 1951, MENDE RICE FARM IT 2, V5, P371 LITTLE KL, 1951, MENDE SIERRA LEONE W LITTLE PD, 1987, MONOGRAPHS DEV ANTHR MARGOLIS M, 1977, AM ETHNOL, V4, P42 MCCAY B, 1987, QUESTION COMMONS CUL MCFALLS JA, 1984, DISEASE FERTILITY MEILLASSOUX C, 1981, MAIDENS MEAL MONEY C MILLER DH, 1991, FOREST CONSERVATION, V35, P84 MORAN E, 1988, MONOGRAPHS EC ANTHR, V5, P199 MORAN E, 1990, ECOSYSTEM APPROACH A MORAN EF, 1981, DEV AMAZON MORAN EF, 1983, DILEMMA AMAZONIAN DE MURPHY WP, 1987, AFRICAN FRONTIER, P123 NETTING RM, 1965, AFRICA, V35, P422 NETTING RM, 1986, CULTURAL ECOLOGY NYERGES AE, 1987, LANDS RISK 3 WORLD L, P316 NYERGES AE, 1987, SCIENCE, V238, P1637 NYERGES AE, 1988, MASCA RES PAPERS SCI, V5, P86 NYERGES AE, 1988, THESIS U PENNSYLVANI NYERGES AE, 1989, HUM ECOL, V17, P379 NYERGES AE, 1991, 91ST ANN M AM ANTHR ORLOVE BS, 1980, ANNU REV ANTHROPOL, V9, P235 ORTNER SB, 1984, COMP STUD SOC HIST, V26, P126 RAPPAPORT RA, 1967, PIGS ANCESTORS RITUA, V1, P1 RICHARDS P, 1985, INDIGENOUS AGR REVOL RICHARDS P, 1986, LONDON RES SERIES GE, V11 RODNEY WA, 1970, HIST UPPER GUINEA CO SCHAFFER M, 1980, MANDINKO ETHNOGRAPHY SCHMINK M, 1984, FRONTIER EXPANSION A SHIPTON P, 1984, ETHNOLOGY, V23, P117 SHIPTON PM, 1984, MAN, V19, P613 SOULE ME, 1991, SCIENCE, V253, P744 SPOONER B, 1972, POPULATION GROWTH AN SPOONER B, 1982, DESERTIFICATION DEV SPOONER B, 1984, ECOLOGY DEV RATIONAL SPOONER B, 1987, MONOGRAPHS DEV ANTHR, P58 STONE GD, 1984, J ANTHROPOL RES, V40, P90 STRICKLAND GT, 1984, HUNTERS TROPICAL MED TEGLER B, 1983, ENV PLANT ASS KILIMI THAYER JS, 1981, THESIS U MICHIGAN AN THAYER JS, 1982, UNPUB PERSISTENCE SL THAYER JS, 1983, AM ETHNOL, V10, P116 THOMAS WL, 1956, MANS ROLE CHANGING F TURNER FJ, 1922, YALE REV, V12, P1 TURNER FJ, 1961, FRONTIER SECTION SEL, P28 VAYDA AP, 1975, ANNU REV ANTHROPOL, V4, P293 VAYDA AP, 1986, REV ANTHR, V13, P295 WORSTER D, 1988, ENDS EARTH PERSPECTI NR 99 TC 8 J9 AMER ANTHROPOL BP 860 EP 881 PY 1992 PD DEC VL 94 IS 4 GA KD398 UT ISI:A1992KD39800004 ER PT J AU Wilcox, BA Fowler, CT TI Ecosystem health and the political process: Ullsten and Rapport revisited SO ECOSYSTEM HEALTH LA English DT Article C1 Univ Hawaii Manoa, John A Burns Sch Med, Div Ecol & Hlth, Honolulu, HI 96822 USA. RP Wilcox, BA, Univ Hawaii Manoa, John A Burns Sch Med, Div Ecol & Hlth, Honolulu, HI 96822 USA. AB Declining ecosystem health worldwide arguably is partly a consequence of a cultural and political economic disconnect between policy makers and scientists. Previous authors of "Viewpoint" describe this gap in terms of the relative inaction of policy makers in response to warnings from the scientific community. We provide an expanded perspective by considering the sociocultural evolution of political economies, and by contextualizing this dilemma within our overspecialized contemporary society. Our commentary suggests the ecosystem health community can work toward narrowing the policy-science disjunction despite the disparate cultures of these communities. CR *WHO, 1986, WHO REG PUBL EUR, V44, P1 ANTONOVSKY A, 1987, UNRAVELING MYSTERY H BENNETT JW, 1990, EARTH TRANSFORMED HU, P69 COSTANZA R, 1992, ECOSYSTEM HLTH NEW G HARRISON LE, 2000, CULTURE MATTERS VALU JOHNSON A, 2000, EVOLUTION HUMAN SOC KALLAND A, 2000, INDIGENOUS ENV KNOWL, P319 KENNEDY P, 1987, RISE FALL GREAT POWE KLARE MT, 2001, FOREIGN AFF, V80, P49 MAGEAU MT, 1995, ECOSYST HEALTH, V1, P201 MCCUBBIN HI, 1998, STRESS COPING HLTH F NEVAH Z, 1984, LANDSCAPE ECOLOGY TH RAPPAPORT RA, 1977, EVOLUTION SOCIAL SYS, V1, P49 REDMAN CL, 1999, HUMAN IMPACTS ANCIEN ULLSTEN O, 2001, ECOSYST HEALTH, V7, P2 NR 15 TC 2 J9 ECOSYST HEALTH BP 136 EP 140 PY 2001 PD SEP VL 7 IS 3 GA 554HB UT ISI:000175728800003 ER PT J AU Thomas, DSG Twyman, C TI Equity and justice in climate change adaptation amongst natural-resource-dependent societies SO GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS LA English DT Article C1 Univ Oxford, Sch Geog & Environm, Oxford OX1 3TB, England. Univ Sheffield, Dept Geog, Sheffield S10 2TN, S Yorkshire, England. RP Thomas, DSG, Univ Oxford, Sch Geog & Environm, Mansfield Rd, Oxford OX1 3TB, England. AB Issues of equity and justice are high on international agendas dealing with the impacts of global climate change. But what are the implications of climate change for equity and justice amongst vulnerable groups at local and sub-national levels? We ask this question for three reasons: (a) there is a considerable literature suggesting that the poorest and most vulnerable groups will disproportionately experience the negative effects of 21st century climate change; (b) such changes are likely to impact significantly on developing world countries, where natural-resource dependency is high; and (c) international conventions increasingly recognise the need to centrally engage resource stakeholders in agendas in order to achieve their desired aims, as part of more holistic approaches to sustainable development. These issues however have implications for distributive and procedural justice, particularly when considered within the efforts of the UNFCCC. The issues are examined through an evaluation of key criteria relating to climate change scenarios and vulnerability in the developing world, and second through two southern African case studies that explore the ways in which livelihoods are differentially impacted by (i) inequitable natural-resource use policies, (ii) community-based natural-resource management programmes. Finally, we consider the placement of climate change amongst the package of factors affecting equity in natural-resource use, and whether this placement creates a case for considering climate change as 'special' amongst livelihood disturbing factors in the developing world. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *DFID, 1997, EL WORLD POV CHALL 2 *DFID, 2002, EL HUNG DFID FOOD SE WATSON RT, 1998, REGIONAL IMPACTS CLI, V1, P1 *IPCC, 2001, CLIM CHANG 2001 *WORLDBANK, 2000, CAN AFR CLAIM 21 CEN *WORLDBANK, 2000, WORLD DEV REP 2000 2 *WORLDBANK, 2002, POV CLIM CHANG RED V, P54 *WRI, 1994, WORLD RES GUID GLOB ADGER WN, 2000, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V90, P738 ADGER WN, 2002, AMBIO, V31, P358 ADGER WN, 2003, ENVIRON PLANN A, V35, P1095 ADGER WN, 2003, PROGR DEV STUDIES, V3, P179 ADGER WN, 2005, IN PRESS EQUITY JUST ANAND P, 2001, J ECON PSYCHOL, V22, P247 ASHLEY C, 2001, DEV POLICY REV, V19, P395 BARKER T, 2003, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V13, P1 BEG N, 2002, CLIM POLICY, V2, P129 BEINART W, 1995, ENV HIST BERKES F, 2002, CONSERV ECOL, V5, P1 BERRY S, 1989, AFRICA, V59, P1 BROAD R, 1994, WORLD DEV, V22, P811 BROWN K, 2002, GEOGR J 1, V168, P6 BRYCESON DF, 1996, WORLD DEV, V24, P97 BRYCESON DF, 2002, WORLD DEV, V30, P725 BURTON I, 1996, ADAPTING CLIMATE CHA, P55 BURTON I, 2002, CLIM POLICY, V2, P145 CHAMBERS R, 1983, RURAL DEV PUTTING LA CLAY E, 1984, ROOM MANOEUVRE EXPLO CORELL E, 1999, INT NEGOTIATION, V4, P197 CRUSH J, 1995, POWER DEV DENTON F, 2000, CLIMATE CHANGE SUSTA DERCON S, 1996, J DEV STUD, V32, P850 DESANKER P, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, P489 ELLIS F, 1998, J DEV STUD, V35, P1 ELLIS F, 2000, RURAL LIVELIHOODS DI FEW R, 2003, PROGR DEV STUDIES, V3, P43 GRUBB M, 2001, CLIM POLICY, V1, P269 HULME M, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE SO AF KATES RW, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P5 KENT S, 1996, CULTURAL DIVERSITY 2, P125 KIKAR GA, 2000, WORKSH MEAS IMP CLIM LEACH M, 1999, WORLD DEV, V27, P225 LOGAN BI, 2002, GEOFORUM, V33, P1 METZ B, 2002, CLIM POLICY, V2, P211 MEYER WB, 1998, HUMAN CHOICE CLIMATE, V3 MILLER D, 1992, ETHICS, V102, P555 MORTIMORE MJ, 2001, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V11, P49 MOSER CON, 1998, WORLD DEV, V26, P1 MURTON J, 1999, GEOGR J 1, V165, P37 OSAKI M, 1984, AFRICAN STUDY MONOGR, V5, P49 PAAVOLA J, 2002, 23 U E ANGL TYND CTR PELLING M, 1999, GEOFORUM, V30, P249 PIETERSE JN, 1999, DEV CHANGE, V30, P183 RAMAKRISHNAN PS, 1998, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V39, P583 RAYNER S, 2000, CLIMATE CHANGE ITS L REIJ C, 2001, FARMER INNOVATION AF RINGIUS L, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE AFRIC, P154 SCOONES I, 1999, POLICIES SOIL FERTIL SCOONES I, 2001, DYNAMICS DIVERSITY S SKOUFIAS E, 2003, WORLD DEV, V31, P1087 SMIT B, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, P879 SOKONA Y, 2001, CLIM POLICY, V1, P117 THOMAS DSG, 2002, POVERTY POLICY NATUR THOMAS DSG, 2003, 3 MILLENNIUM ROLE ST, P3 THOMAS DSG, 2004, LAND DEGRAD DEV, V15, P215 TIFFEN M, 1994, MORE PEOPLE LESS ERO TOL RSJ, 2000, MUCH DAMAGE WILL CLI TOMPKINS EL, 2004, ECOLOGY SOC, V9, P10 TSING AL, 1999, AMBIO, V28, P197 TWYMAN C, 1998, THIRD WORLD Q, V19, P745 TWYMAN C, 2001, REV AFRICAN POLITICA, V87, P9 TWYMAN C, 2002, INT C WAT RES INT MA TWYMAN C, 2004, GEOFORUM, V35, P69 WASHINGTON R, IN PRESS WATER RESOU NR 74 TC 4 J9 GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANGE BP 115 EP 124 PY 2005 PD JUL VL 15 IS 2 GA 931VR UT ISI:000229514100005 ER PT J AU Ebohon, OJ Ikeme, AJ TI Decomposition analysis of CO2 emission intensity between oilproducing and non-oll-producing sub-Saharan African countries SO ENERGY POLICY LA English DT Article C1 De Montfort Univ, Sch Architecture, Developing World Built Environm Res Unit, Leicester LE1 9BH, Leics, England. RP Ebohon, OJ, De Montfort Univ, Sch Architecture, Developing World Built Environm Res Unit, Leicester LE1 9BH, Leics, England. AB The need to decompose CO2 emission intensity is predicated upon the need for effective climate change mitigation and adaptation policies. Such analysis enables key variables that instigate CO2 emission intensity to be identified while at the same time providing opportunities to verify the mitigation and adaptation capacities of countries. However, Most CO2 decomposition analysis has been conducted for the developed economics and little attention has been paid to sub-Saharan Africa. The need for such an analysis for SSA is overwhelming for several reasons. Firstly, the region is amongst the most vulnerable to climate change. Secondly, there are disparities in the amount and composition of energy consumption and the levels of economic growth and development in the region. Thus, a decomposition analysis of CO2, emission intensity for SSA affords the opportunity to identify key influencing variables and to see how they compare among countries in the region. Also, attempts have been made to distinguish between oil and non-oil-producing SSA countries. To this effect a comparative static analysis Of CO2 emission intensity for oil-producing and non oil-producing SSA countries for the periods 1971-1998 has been undertaken, using the refined Laspeyres decomposition model. Our analysis confirms the findings for other regions that CO2 emission intensity is attributable to energy consumption intensity, CO2 emission coefficient of energy types and economic structure. Particularly, CO2 emission coefficient of energy use was found to exercise the most influence on CO2, emission intensity for both oil and non-oil-producing sub-Saharan African countries in the first sub-interval period of our investigation from 1971-1981. In the second subinterval of 1981-1991, energy intensity and structural effect were the two major influencing factors on emission intensity for the two groups of countries. However, energy intensity effect had the most pronounced impact on CO, emission intensity in non-oil-producing sub-Saharan African countries, while the structural effect explained most of the increase in CO2 emission intensity among the oil-producing countries. Finally, for the period 1991-1998. structural effect accounted for much of the decrease in intensity among non-oil-producers, while CO2 emission coefficient of energy use was the major force driving the decrease among oil-producing countries. The dynamic changes in the CO2 emission intensity and energy intensity effects for the two groups of countries suggest that fuel switching had been predominantly towards more carbon-intensive production in oil-producing countries and less carbon-intensive production in non-oil-producing SSA countries. In addition to the decomposition analysis, the article discusses policy implications of the results. We hope that the information and analyses provided here would help inform national energy and climate policy makers in SSA of the relative weaknesses and possible areas of strategic emphasis in their planning processes for mitigating the effects of climate change. (c) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 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RP MacIver, DC, Atmospher Environm Serv, 4905 Dufferin St, Toronto, ON M3H 5T4, Canada. AB This paper summarizes the recommendations from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Workshop on Adaptation to Climate Variability and Change convened in Costa Rica in 1998. Specifically, this paper also summarizes the adaptive management science issues and, in many cases, sectoral options. The Workshop, organized by Canada and Costa Rica, involved more than 200 experts and focused on adaptation science, adaptive management and adaptation options for climate variability and change. CR MACIVER DC, 1998, ADAPTATION CLIMATE V MACIVER DC, 1999, ADAPTATION CLIMATE V WHEATON EE, 1999, IN PRESS MITIGATION NR 3 TC 2 J9 ENVIRON MONIT ASSESS BP 1 EP 8 PY 2000 PD MAR VL 61 IS 1 GA 300UB UT ISI:000086270100001 ER PT J AU Azar, C Schneider, SH TI Are the economic costs of stabilising the atmosphere prohibitive? SO ECOLOGICAL ECONOMICS LA English DT Article C1 Univ Gothenburg, Chalmers Univ Technol, Dept Phys Resource Theory, S-41296 Gothenburg, Sweden. Stanford Univ, Dept Biol Sci, Stanford, CA 94305 USA. RP Azar, C, Univ Gothenburg, Chalmers Univ Technol, Dept Phys Resource Theory, S-41296 Gothenburg, Sweden. AB Macro economic studies of the costs of reducing CO2 emissions generally estimate the global cost of stabilising the atmospheric concentrations of CO2 in the range 350-550 ppm in trillions of USD. This creates the impression that the cost of CO2 reductions is so large that it threatens economic development. But, presented in another way, a completely different picture emerges. There is widespread agreement amongst the more pessimistic macro economic studies that stringent carbon controls are compatible with a significant increase in global and regional economic welfare. Even if the cost of CO2 abatement rises to 5% of global income per year by the end of this century, this reduction is minor compared with the tenfold increase in global income that is expected. Since income is assumed to grow by a couple of percent per year, the trillion USD cost could also be expressed as a few years delay in achieving an order of magnitude higher income levels. Similar observations can also be made as regards near-term abatement targets such as the Kyoto protocol. A more widespread recognition of the fact that carbon abatement policies will only marginally affect economic growth is likely to increase the willingness to introduce carbon abatement policies. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. CR *DOE, 1997, SCEN US CARB RED POT *IPCC, 1995, CLIM CHANG 1994 RAD *IPCC, 1999, SPEC REP EM SCEN INT MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 *IPCC, 2001, MIT CONTR WORK GROUP *IPCC, 2001, SCI BASIC CONTR WORK *NAT AC SCI, 1991, POL IMPL GREENH WARM *WEA, 2000, WORLD EN ASS WEA EN ANDERSON D, 1992, OXFORD B ECON STAT, V54, P1 AYRES RU, 1994, ENVIRON RESOUR ECON, V4, P434 AZAR C, 1996, ECOL ECON, V19, P169 AZAR C, 1997, SCIENCE, V276, P1818 AZAR C, 1998, ENVIRON RESOUR ECON, V11, P301 AZAR C, 2000, HYDROGEN METHANOL TR BOLIN B, 2001, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V98, P4850 CLINTON W, 1998, SPEECH US C GOLDEMBERG J, 1987, ENERGY SUSTAINABLE W GOULDER LH, 1999, RESOUR ENERGY ECON, V21, P211 GRUBB M, 1993, ANNU REV ENERG ENV, V18, P397 HANNESSON R, 1998, PETROLEUM EC ISSUES HOFFERT MI, 1998, NATURE, V395, P881 ISHITANI H, 1996, IMP AD MIT OPT IPCC, CH19 JOHANSSON TB, 1993, RENEWABLE ENERGY SOU LAZARUS M, 1993, FOSSIL FREE ENERGY F LINDEN HR, 1996, ANNU REV ENERG ENV, V21, P31 LINDSEY LB, 2001, SPEECH C SCI TECHNOL LOVINS AB, 1991, ANNU REV ENERG ENV, V16, P433 MANNE A, 1997, ENVIRON MODEL ASSESS, V2, P251 MICHAELS PJ, 2000, SATANIC GASES CLEARI NAKICENOVIC N, 1995, GLOBAL ENERGY PERSPE NORDHAUS WD, 1990, ECONOMIST 0707, P19 NORDHAUS WD, 1992, SCIENCE, V258, P1315 OBERSTEINER M, 2001, SCIENCE, V294, P786 PARSON EA, 1998, SCI FOSSIL FUELS CO2, V282, P1054 ROUGHGARDEN T, 1999, ENERG POLICY, V27, P415 SCHNEIDER SH, 1993, SCIENCE, V259, P1381 SCHNEIDER SH, 1999, PACIFIC ASIAN J ENER, V10, P81 SCHNEIDER SH, 2001, NATURE, V409, P417 STERNER T, 1980, NUCL POWER EC SWED WIGLEY TML, 1996, NATURE, V379, P240 NR 40 TC 10 J9 ECOL ECON BP 73 EP 80 PY 2002 PD AUG VL 42 IS 1-2 GA 578PP UT ISI:000177127200008 ER PT J AU McEvoy, D Lindley, S Handley, J TI Adaptation and mitigation in urban areas: synergies and conflicts SO PROCEEDINGS OF THE INSTITUTION OF CIVIL ENGINEERS-MUNICIPAL ENGINEER LA English DT Article C1 Univ Maastricht, Int Ctr Integrated Assessment & Sustainable Dev, Maastricht, Netherlands. Univ Manchester, CURE, Manchester M13 9PL, Lancs, England. RP McEvoy, D, Univ Maastricht, Int Ctr Integrated Assessment & Sustainable Dev, Maastricht, Netherlands. AB Following the introduction of the national Climate Change Programme, initiatives that seek to mitigate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are now well established in the UK. However, there is increasing recognition that adaptation to some level of climate change will be necessary, even if a reduction in emissions is successful. This is inevitable as much of the predicted climate changes over the next 30 - 40 years have already been predetermined by past and present emissions of GHGs. Change is likely to be significant. Understanding what the risks are likely to be and how best to adapt to them is therefore central to any mature climate change strategy. However, the inevitable linkages between adaptation and mitigation measures represent a particular challenge. Focusing on the consequences of climate change for the urban environment ( where most of the population is concentrated and where its impact is likely to be most keenly felt), this paper suggests preferred adaptation options and provides an evaluation of how these may act to reinforce or hamper mitigation efforts. For example, moves towards urban densification may contribute to the reduction of energy use, yet will have negative implications for adaptation. Having a better understanding of the synergies, conflicts and trade-offs between mitigation and adaptation measures would make a valuable contribution to a more integrated climate policy and the effective climate-proofing of our towns and cities. CR *3 REG CLIM CHANG, 2005, AD CLIM CHANG CHECKL *AIR QUAL EXP GROU, 2005, AIR QUAL CLIM CHANG *DEFRA, 2004, MAK SPAC WAT DEV NEW *DEP ENV FOOD RUR, 2006, UK CLIM CHANG PROGR *DETR, 1999, URB REN *DETR, 2000, UK CLIM CHANG PROGR *ENG PHYS SCI RES, 2003, BUILD KNOWL CHANG CL *EUR ENV AG, 2004, 52004 EEA *GLA, 2005, CRAZ PAV ENV IMP LON WATSON RT, 1998, REGIONAL IMPACTS CLI, V1, P1 *IPCC, 2001, CLIM CHANG 2001 MIT *OFF DEP PRIM MIN, 2004, PLANN RESP CLIM CHAN *RCEP, 2000, EN CHANG CLIM ASHLEY R, IN PRESS BUILT ENV BARRETT J, 2001, ECOLOGICAL FOOTPRINT BULKELEY H, 2002, CITIES CLIMATE CHANG BURTON I, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE IMPAC, P877 CAPELLO R, 2000, URBAN STUD, V37, P1479 CHAMBERS N, 2000, SHARING NATURES INTE DUCKWORTH C, 2005, THESIS U MANCHESTER FISCHERKOWALSKI M, 1999, J IND ECOL, V2, P107 GILL S, IN PRESS BUILT ENV GILL S, 2004, LIT REV IMPACTS CLIM GRAVES HM, 2000, POTENTIAL IMPLICATIO GRAVES HM, 2001, COOLING BUILDINGS LO GWILLIAM JA, IN PRESS LANDSCAPE U HACKER JN, 2005, BEATING HEAT KEEPING HULME M, 2002, CLIMATE CHANGE SCENA KLEIN RJT, 2003, 40 TYND CTR CLIM CHA LARSEN J, 2003, RECORD HEAT WAVE EUR MCEVOY D, 2000, INT J ENERG RES, V24, P215 MCEVOY D, 2006, ADAPTIVE MANAGEMENT MCEVOY D, 2006, CLIMATE CHANGE VISIT SMIT B, 1999, MITIGATION ADAPTATIO, V4, P199 TOL RSJ, 2005, ENVIRON SCI POLICY, V8, P572 TOMPKINS EL, 2005, ENVIRON SCI POLICY, V8, P562 WHITE I, 2004, J ENV POLICY PLANNIN, V7, P25 WHITFORD V, 2001, LANDSCAPE URBAN PLAN, V57, P91 WILBANKS TJ, 2005, ENVIRON SCI POLICY, V8, P541 WILBY RL, 2003, WEATHER, V58, P251 WILLIAMS K, 1999, LAND USE POLICY, V16, P167 NR 41 TC 0 J9 PROC INST CIVIL ENG MUNIC ENG BP 185 EP 191 PY 2006 PD DEC VL 159 IS 4 GA 112DE UT ISI:000242504700003 ER PT J AU Hartig, EK Grozev, O Rosenzweig, C TI Climate change, agriculture and wetlands in Eastern Europe: Vulnerability, adaptation and policy SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 BULGARIAN ACAD SCI,FOREST RES INST,BG-1040 SOFIA,BULGARIA. NASA,GODDARD INST SPACE STUDIES,NEW YORK,NY 10025. RP Hartig, EK, COLUMBIA UNIV,CTR CLIMATE SYST RES,NEW YORK,NY 10027. AB Naturally-occurring wetlands perform such functions as flood control, pollution filtration, nutrient recycling, sediment accretion, groundwater recharge and water supply, erosion control, and plant and wildlife preservation. A large concentration of wetlands is located in Eastern Europe. A significant amount of Eastern European wetlands has been converted to agricultural use in the past, and remaining wetlands are subject to agricultural drainage. Drained wetlands are used as prime agriculture lands for a variety of food crops. Other agricultural uses of wetlands range from growing Phragmites australis (common reed) for thatch and livestock feed, to collecting peat for heating and cooking fuel. Altered hydrologic regimes due to global climate change could further exacerbate encroachment of agricultural land use into wetlands. The vulnerability and adaptation studies of the U.S. Country Studies Program are used to analyze where climate change impacts to agriculture may likewise impact wetland;areas. Scenarios indicate higher temperatures and greater evapotranspiration altering the hydrologic regime such that freshwater wetlands are potentially vulnerable in Bulgaria, Czech Republic, and Russia, and that coastal wetlands are at risk in Estonia. Runoff is identified as a key hydrological parameter affecting wetland function. Since wetland losses may increase as a result of climate-change-induced impacts to agriculture, precautionary management options are reviewed, such as establishing buffer areas, promoting sustainable uses of wetlands, and restoration of farmed or mined wetland areas. These options may reduce the extent of negative agricultural impacts on wetlands due to global climate change. CR *CZECH REP COUNTR, 1995, 5 NAT CLIM PROGR CZE *FAO, 1993, AGROSTAT COMP INF SE *INT BENCHM SIT NE, 1989, DEC SUPP SYST AGR TR *IPCC, 1990, IPCC WORK GROUP, V2 *US ARM CORPS ENG, 1987, Y871 US ARM CORPS EN, P100 *US COUNTR STUD PR, 1995, UNPUB REG WORKSH CLI *USDA, 1995, ENT 1995 WETL RES PR, P4 BABCOCK GH, 1992, SOURCES ENERGY, V8, P8 COWARDIN LM, 1979, US FISH WILDLIFE SER, P103 CRUM HA, 1988, FOCUS PEATLANDS PEAT GORIUP P, 1990, PARKS, P56 GREEN FWH, 1978, GEOGR J, V144, P171 HANSEN JE, 1984, GEOPHYS MONOGR, V29, P130 HARRISS RC, 1988, GLOBAL BIOGEOCHEMICA, V2, P231 HARRISS RC, 1992, GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANG, V3, P48 HEJNY, 1978, POND LITTORAL ECOSYS, P1 HILLEL D, 1992, OUT EARTH CIVILIZATI, P320 HOLLIS GE, 1988, NATURE RESOUR, V24, P2 ISZRAEL YA, 1995, DEFCO293PO10118 ANL KONT A, 1996, VULNERABILITY ADAPTA, P249 KUSLER JA, 1990, WETLAND CREATION RES, P594 KVET J, 1978, POND LITTORAL ECOSYS, P211 LARSON JS, 1989, PUBLICATION U MASSAC, V896, P62 LEAN G, 1990, ATLAS ENV, P192 LOOMIS RS, 1992, CROP ECOLOGY PRODUCT, P538 MATTHEWS E, 1987, GLOBAL BIOGEOCHEMICA, V1, P61 MATTHEWS E, 1993, NATO ASI SER, V1, P314 MITSCH WJ, 1993, WETLANDS, P722 MITSCH WJ, 1995, SOIL MANAGEMENT GREE, V18, P205 MORTSCH L, 1990, DEP GEOGRAPHY PUBLIC, P217 PAAVILAINEN E, 1995, PEATLAND FORESTRY EC, P248 PIECZYNSKA E, 1976, INT C CONS WETL WAT, P180 RAEV I, 1995, UNPUB VULNERABILITY SINGER, 1981, COMBUSTION FOSSIL PO, P2 SZCZEPANSKA W, 1976, POL ARCH HYDROBIOL, V23, P233 TEAL J, 1969, LIFE DEATH SALT MARS, P274 TINER RW, 1984, WETLANDS US CURRENT, P58 WATSON RT, 1995, CONTRIBUTION WORKING, P215 WETHERALD RT, 1986, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V8, P5 WHEELER BD, 1995, RESTORATION TEMPERAT, P562 WILSON CA, 1987, J GEOPHYS RES-ATMOSP, V92, P13315 YABLOKOV AV, 1991, CONSERVATION LIVING, P271 NR 42 TC 2 J9 CLIMATIC CHANGE BP 107 EP 121 PY 1997 PD MAY-JUN VL 36 IS 1-2 GA XH635 UT ISI:A1997XH63500008 ER PT J AU Chen, CC Chang, CC TI The impact of weather on crop yield distribution in Taiwan: some new evidence from panel data models and implications for crop insurance SO AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS LA English DT Article C1 Natl Chung Hsing Univ, Dept Appl Econ, Taichung, Taiwan. Natl Taiwan Univ, Dept Agr Econ, Taipei 10764, Taiwan. Acad Sinica, Inst Econ, Taipei 115, Taiwan. RP Chang, CC, Acad Sinica, Inst Econ, Yen Chiou Yuan Rd, Taipei 115, Taiwan. AB This study examines the impact of weather on the yields of seven major crops in Taiwan based on pooled panel data for 15 prefectures over the 1977-1996 period. The unit root tests and maximum likelihood methods involving a panel data model are explored to obtain reliable estimates. The uncertain yield outcome is incorporated into a discrete stochastic programming model to address a comparison between sector analysis with and without considerations of a crop insurance policy under different climate change scenarios. Simulation results suggest that crop insurance may stabilize revenues and protect farmers from exposures to increasing weather-related risk. CR MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 ADAMS RM, 2003, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V60, P131 AHSAN SM, 1982, AM J AGR ECON, V64, P520 ARELLANO M, 1993, J ECONOMETRICS, V59, P87 BACHELET D, 1993, SYSTEMS APPROACHES A, P145 BALTAGI BH, 1995, EC ANAL PANEL DATA BALTAGI BH, 1995, J ECONOMETRICS, V68, P133 BARTLETT MS, 1937, PROC R SOC LON SER-A, V160, P268 CHANG CC, 2002, AGR ECON, V27, P51 CHEN CC, 2000, J AGR RESOUR ECON, V25, P368 DARWIN R, 2004, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V66, P191 HARDMAN LL, 1997, ALTERNATIVE FIELD CR HOOGENBOOM G, 2000, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V103, P137 HOSSAIN M, 1997, APPL SYSTEMS APPROAC HSU HH, 2002, METEOROL ATMOS PHYS, V79, P87 IM KS, 2003, J ECONOMETRICS, V115, P53 JUDGE GG, 1985, THEORY PRACTICE EC JUST RE, 1978, J ECONOMETRICS, V7, P67 JUST RE, 1999, AM J AGR ECON, V81, P287 LAMBERT DK, 1995, J AGR APPL EC, V27, P423 LANSIGAN FP, 2000, AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON, V82, P129 LEVIN A, 1992, UNPUB UNIT ROOT TEST LEVIN A, 1993, 9356 U CAL LEVIN A, 2002, J ECONOMETRICS, V108, P1 LIN CF, 1994, STSAT GRAPHICAL SUMM MATTHEWS RB, 1997, AGR SYST, V54, P399 MCCARL BA, 1980, AM J AGR ECON, V62, P87 MEARNS LO, 1996, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V32, P257 MEARNS LO, 1997, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V35, P367 NORTON RD, 1980, EUROPEAN REV AGR EC, V7, P229 OLESEN JE, 2002, EUR J AGRON, V16, P239 PARRY ML, 1999, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V9, P51 QUAH D, 1994, ECON LETT, V44, P9 RIHA SJ, 1996, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V32, P293 SAHA A, 1997, APPL ECON, V29, P459 SAMUELSON PA, 1952, AM ECON REV, V42, P283 SEGERSON K, 1999, IMPACT CLIMATE CHANG, CH4 SMIT B, 1996, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V6, P205 TAKAYAMA T, 1971, SPATIAL TEMPORAL PRI TSVETSINSKAYA EA, 2003, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V60, P37 TURVEY CG, 2001, REV AGR ECON, V23, P333 YOUNG CE, 2001, AM J AGR ECON, V83, P1196 YU PS, 2002, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V54, P165 NR 43 TC 0 J9 AGR ECON BP 503 EP 511 PY 2005 PD NOV VL 33 IS 3 GA 988SK UT ISI:000233620800013 ER PT J AU Hijmans, RJ TI The effect of climate change on global potato production SO AMERICAN JOURNAL OF POTATO RESEARCH LA English DT Article C1 Int Potato Ctr, Lima 12, Peru. RP Hijmans, RJ, Int Potato Ctr, Apartado 1558, Lima 12, Peru. AB The effect of climate change on global potato production was assessed. Potential yields were calculated with a simulation model and a grid with monthly climate data for current (1961-1990) and projected (2010-2039 and 2040-2069) conditions. The results were mapped and summarized for countries. Between 1961-1990 and 20402069 the global (terrestrial excluding Antarctica) average temperature is predicted to increase between 2.1 and 3.2 C, depending on the climate scenario. The temperature increase is smaller when changes are weighted by the potato area and particularly when adaptation of planting time and cultivars is considered (a predicted temperature increase between 1 and 1.4 C). For this period, global potential potato yield decreases by 18% to 32% (without adaptation) and by 9% to 18% (with adaptation). At high latitudes, global warming will likely lead to changes in the time of planting, the use of later-maturing cultivars, and a shift of the location of potato production. In many of these regions, changes in potato yield are likely to be relatively small, and sometimes positive. Shifting planting time or location is less feasible at lower latitudes, and in these regions global warming could have a strong negative effect on potato production. It is shown that heat-tolerant potato cultivars could be used to mitigate effects of global warming in (sub)tropical regions. CR *INT PAN CLIM CHAN, 1999, PROV CLIM CHANG REL CARTER TR, 1996, AGR FOOD SCI FINLAND, V5, P329 DAVIES A, 1996, ASPECTS APPL BIOL, V45, P63 DETEMMERMAN L, 2000, CHANGING CLIMATE POT EWING EE, 1992, HORTIC REV, V14, P89 HAVERKORT AJ, 1990, AGR SYST, V32, P251 HIJMANS RJ, 2001, AM J POTATO RES, V78, P403 HIJMANS RJ, 2003, AGR SYST, V76 HOUGHTON JT, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 JEFFREE CE, 1996, FUNCT ECOL, V10, P562 KAUKORANTA T, 1996, AGR FOOD SCI FINLAND, V5, P311 KHANNA ML, 1966, CURRENT SCI, V35, P143 KOOMAN PL, 1995, POTATO ECOLOGY MODEL, P41 KOOMAN PL, 1995, THESIS WAGENINGEN AG LEEMANS R, 1993, CLIM RES, V3, P79 LEVY D, 1984, TROP AGR, V61, P167 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 MIGLIETTA F, 1998, GLOB CHANGE BIOL, V4, P163 NEW M, 1999, J CLIMATE, V12, P829 NONHEBEL S, 1993, THESIS WAGENINGEN AG PEIRIS DR, 1996, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V79, P271 REYNOLDS MP, 1989, AM POTATO J, V66, P63 REYNOLDS MP, 1989, ANN BOT-LONDON, V64, P241 ROSENZWEIG C, 1992, GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANG, P342 ROSENZWEIG C, 1994, NATURE, V367, P133 ROSENZWEIG C, 1996, AGR SYST, V52, P455 ROSENZWEIG C, 1998, CLIMATE CHANGE GLOBA SCOTT GJ, 2000, FOOD POLICY, V25, P561 STOL W, 1991, 155 CABODLO TAI GCC, 1994, EUPHYTICA, V75, P49 VANDERZAAG P, 1988, FIELD CROP RES, V19, P167 VANKEULEN H, 1995, POTATO ECOLOGY MODEL, P357 NR 32 TC 0 J9 AM J POTATO RES BP 271 EP 279 PY 2003 PD JUL-AUG VL 80 IS 4 GA 719DQ UT ISI:000185188700006 ER PT J AU SMITH, PEL TI TRANSHUMANCE AMONG EUROPEAN SETTLERS IN ATLANTIC CANADA SO GEOGRAPHICAL JOURNAL LA English DT Article RP SMITH, PEL, UNIV MONTREAL,DEPT ANTHROPOL,MONTREAL,PQ H3C 3J7,CANADA. AB Until recently in Newfoundland, southern Labrador and an adjoining part of Quebec, many of the coastal fishing population regularly migrated to the forests or other zones for the winter. The principal motivations were: firewood, shelter, hunting, fur-trapping and fishery gear production. This was one of several forms of seasonal migration by families and communities that characterized the area for nearly three centuries. The practice, unusual among European settlers, was rooted in various environmental, economic and political features. It had important effects on the processes of adaptation and colonization in the region. CR BANFIELD CE, 1981, NATURAL ENV NEWFOUND, P83 BERGERUD AT, 1983, SCI AM, V249, P130 BLACK WA, 1960, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V50, P267 BRICEBENNETT C, 1977, OUR FOOTPRINTS ARE E BRUTON FA, 1928, NARRATIVE JOURNEY IS CELL GT, 1982, NEWFOUNDLAND DISCOVE GUELKE L, 1985, HIST REFLECTIONS REF, V12, P419 HANDCOCK WG, 1989, SOE LONGE THERE COME HARE FK, 1952, GEOGRAPHICAL B, V2, P36 INGOLD T, 1981, BRIT ARCHAEOLOGICAL, V96, P119 MEINIG DW, 1986, SHAPING AM GEOGRAPHI, V1 MORETON J, 1863, LIFE WORK NEWFOUNDLA OLDMIXON J, 1708, BRIT EMPIRE AM CONTA SMITH PEL, 1987, CURR ANTHROPOL, V28, P241 SMITH PEL, 1987, NEWFOUNDLAND STUDIES, V3, P1 SMITH PEL, 1993, RECHERCHES AM QUEBEC, V23, P5 TANNER V, 1947, OUTLINES GEOGRAPHY L NR 17 TC 2 J9 GEOGR J BP 79 EP 86 PY 1995 PD MAR VL 161 GA QR598 UT ISI:A1995QR59800008 ER PT J AU Hitz, S Smith, JB TI Estimating global impacts from climate change SO GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS LA English DT Article RP Hitz, S, 362 Helms Ave, Culver City, CA 90232 USA. AB We surveyed the literature to assess the state of knowledge with regard to the (presumed) benefits or avoided damages of reducing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases to progressively lower levels. The survey included only published studies addressing global impacts of climate change; studies that only addressed regional impacts were not included. The metric we used for change in climate is increase in global mean temperature (GMT). The focus of the analysis centred on determining the general shape of the damage curve, expressed as a function of GMT. Studies in sea level rise, agriculture, water resources, human health, energy, terrestrial ecosystems productivity, forestry, biodiversity, and marine ecosystems productivity were examined. In addition, we analysed several studies that aggregate results across sectors. Results are presented using metrics as reported in the surveyed studies and thus are not aggregated. We found that the relationships between GMT and impacts are not consistent across sectors. Some of the sectors exhibit increasing adverse impacts with increasing GMT, in particular coastal resources, biodiversity, and possibly marine ecosystem productivity. Some sectors are characterised by a parabolic relationship between temperature and impacts (benefits at lower GMT increases, damages at higher GMT increases), in particular, agriculture, terrestrial ecosystem productivity, and possibly forestry. The relationship between global impacts and increase in GMT for water, health, energy, and aggregate impacts appears to be uncertain. One consistent pattern is that beyond an approximate 3-4degreesC increase in GMT, all of the studies we examined, with the possible exception of forestry, show increasing adverse impacts. Thus, in total, it appears likely that there are increasing adverse impacts at higher increases in GMT. We were unable to determine the relationship between total impacts and climate change up to a 3-4degreesC increase in GMT. There are important uncertainties in the studies we surveyed that prevent us from a precise identification of 3-4degreesC as the critical temperature transition range, beyond which damages are adverse and increasing. We are confident in general however, that beyond several degrees of GMT, damages tend to be adverse and increasing. We conclude by suggesting some priorities for future research that, if undertaken, would further our understanding of how impacts are apt to vary with increases in GMT. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR ALCAMO J, 1994, WATER AIR SOIL POLL, V76, P1 ALCAMO J, 1997, GLOBAL CHANGE GLOBAL ALCAMO J, 1998, RESULTA IMAGE 21 MOD ARNELL NW, 1999, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHA S, V9, S31 ARNELL NW, 2002, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V53, P413 BOPP L, 2001, GLOBAL BIOGEOCHEM CY, V15, P81 CARTER TR, 2001, IMPACTS ADAPTATION V, P145 CHEN CC, 2001, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V49, P147 CRAMER W, 2001, GLOBAL CHANGE BIOL, V7, P357 DARWIN RF, 1995, 703 USDA DOLL P, 2002, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V54, P269 DOWNING TE, 1996, COSTA CLIMATE CHANGE EASTERLING DR, 2000, SCIENCE, V289, P2068 FANKHAUSER S, 1995, VALUING CLIMATE CHAN FISCHER G, 2002, CLIMAGE CHANGE AGR V GITAY H, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, P235 GUBLER DJ, 2001, ENVIRON HEALTH PE S2, V109, P223 HALPIN PN, 1997, ECOL APPL, V7, P828 HIJIOKA Y, 2002, J JAPAN SOC WATER EN, V25, P647 HOOZEMANS FMJ, 1993, GLOBAL VULNERABILITY HOUGHTON JT, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 LISE W, 2002, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V55, P429 MARTENS P, 1999, ESIAM ESIAM MARTENS P, 1999, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V9, P89 MARTENS WJM, 1997, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V35, P145 MARTIN PH, 1995, AMBIO, V24, P200 MARTINELLI F, 1998, STUD ROMANI, V46, P3 MCMICHAEL AJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, P451 MENDELSOHN R, 1997, CLIMATE RESPONSE FUN MENDELSOHN R, 1999, IMPACTS CLIMATE CHAN MENDELSOHN R, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P553 MENDELSOHN R, 2000, INTEGRATED ASSESSMEN, V2, P37 MENDELSOHN R, 2001, GLOBAL WARNING AM EC MENDELSOHN R, 2003, GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANG, P92 METZ B, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 NICHOLLS RJ, 1999, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHA S, V9, PS69 NORDHAUS W, 2000, ROLL DICE AGAIN EC M PARRY ML, 1999, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V9, PS51 PARRY ML, 2001, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V11, P1 PEREZGARCIA J, 2002, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V54, P439 PETERS RL, 1992, GLOBAL WARMING BIOL ROSENZWEIG C, 1995, CLIMATE CHANGES INT, P27 ROSENZWEIG C, 1998, CLIMATE CHANGE GLOBA ROSENZWEIG C, 2002, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V12, P197 SCHNEIDER SH, 2000, PACIFIC ASIAN J ENER, V10, P81 SMIT B, 1996, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V33, P7 SMITH JB, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, P913 SOHNGEN B, 2001, J AGR RESOUR ECON, V26, P326 TIMMERMANN A, 1999, NATURE, V398, P694 TOL RSJ, 2002, ENVIRON RESOUR ECON, V21, P135 TOL RSJ, 2002, ENVIRON RESOUR ECON, V21, P47 TOL RSJ, 2002, INTEGRATED ENV ASSES, V2, P173 VOROSMARTY CJ, 2000, SCIENCE, V289, P284 WATSON RT, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 WEST JJ, 1999, CLIMATE CHANGE RISK, P205 WHITE A, 1999, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHA S, V9, S21 NR 56 TC 2 J9 GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANGE BP 201 EP 218 PY 2004 PD OCT VL 14 IS 3 GA 854EQ UT ISI:000223884300003 ER PT J AU Johannessen, A TI Summary and conclusions from the SIWI Seminar for Young Water Professionals - Water and sustainable development - how to ensure development without compromising sustainability? SO WATER SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY LA English DT Article C1 Stockholm Univ, SIWI, SE-10691 Stockholm, Sweden. Stockholm Univ, Nat Resource Management Div, Dept Syst Ecol, SE-10691 Stockholm, Sweden. RP Johannessen, A, Stockholm Univ, SIWI, SE-10691 Stockholm, Sweden. AB There-is a need to create a balance between development and conservation in order to find a way to mitigate the conflicting interests of water for society, the environment and the economy. Apart from finding a solution to this there is a need to get the message across to the decision makers. How do we make good ideas permeate policy and translate into concrete programs? The Young Water Professionals gave their view through presentations and discussions. It was argued that the answer was not to be found only in environmental science but also in the political and social arena. It was argued that the sanctioned discourse is a powerful force in water allocation and management. How can a balance be struck? Many argued for a unique design of a policy for the whole catchment, acknowledging ecology and existing institutions. Furthermore, many argued in favor of building on existing institutions and steward groups for sustainability and increase their adaptive capacity. NR 0 TC 0 J9 WATER SCI TECHNOL BP 211 EP 213 PY 2003 VL 47 IS 6 GA 676VZ UT ISI:000182774400037 ER PT J AU Anderies, JM TI On modeling human behavior and institutions in simple ecological economic systems SO ECOLOGICAL ECONOMICS LA English DT Article C1 CSIRO, Canberra, ACT 2615, Australia. RP Anderies, JM, CSIRO, GPO Box 284, Canberra, ACT 2615, Australia. AB The use of stylized dynamical systems models and bifurcation analysis in modeling individual and collective behavior in two traditional societies, the Tsembaga of New Guinea and the Polynesians of Easter Island, is explored. The analysis is used to isolate key aspects of individual behavior that open up the possibility of resource overexploitation and key aspects of institutions capable of preventing overexploitation. An extension of the Brander and Taylor [Am. Econ. Rev. 88 (1998) 119-138] Easter Island model with a more realistic model for individual behavior is presented, This induces significant changes in the model dynamics which share many similarities with the Tsembaga model of Anderies [J. Theor. Biol. 192 (1998) 515-530]. Namely, in both models, the ability of agents to intensify the exploitation of the resource base to attempt to meet demands is a fundamentally destabilizing force. The model implications for present day policy issues are explored. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. CR ANDERIES JM, 1998, THESIS U BRIT COLUMB ANDERIES JM, 1999, DEMOGRAPHICS RENEWAB ANDERIES JM, 1998, J THEOR BIOL, V192, P515 BERKES F, 1998, LINKING SOCIAL ECOLO, V1, P1 BRANDER JA, 1998, AM ECON REV, V88, P119 CLARK CW, 1990, MATH BIOECONOMICS OP DOEDEL EJ, 1981, CONGRESSUS NUMERANTI, V30, P265 EDELSTEINKESHET L, 1988, MATH MODELS BIOL FOIN TC, 1984, HUM ECOL, V12, P385 GEERTZ C, 1963, AGR INVOLUTION HARDIN G, 1968, SCIENCE, V162, P1243 KUZNETSOV IA, 1995, ELEMENTS APPL BIFURC MAY RM, 1973, STABILITY COMPLEXITY MORAN EF, 1990, ECOSYSTEM APPROACH A OSTROM E, 1990, GOVT COMMONS OSTROM E, 1995, PROPERTY RIGHTS ENV OSTROM E, 1999, ANNU REV POLIT SCI, V2, P493 OSTROM E, 1999, SCIENCE, V284, P278 RAPPAPORT RA, 1967, PIGS ANCESTORS RITUA, V1, P1 SHANTZIS SB, 1973, GLOBAL EQUILIBRIUM TAINTER JA, 1988, COLLAPSE COMPLEX SOC VANCOLLER L, 1997, CONSERVATION ECOLOGY, V1 VAYDA A, 1968, INTRO CULTURAL ANTHR VAYDA AP, 1969, ENV CULTURAL BEHAV E NR 24 TC 7 J9 ECOL ECON BP 393 EP 412 PY 2000 PD DEC VL 35 IS 3 GA 378AH UT ISI:000165558600007 ER PT J AU Deshingkar, P TI Climate change adaptation in India: A case study of forest systems in Himachal Pradesh SO INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENT AND POLLUTION LA English DT Article C1 Stockholm Environm Inst, S-10314 Stockholm, Sweden. RP Deshingkar, P, Stockholm Environm Inst, Box 2142, S-10314 Stockholm, Sweden. AB Climate-induced changes in the forest sector could have far-reaching consequences for rural communities and the economy in developing countries. Despite the many uncertainties involved in predicting impacts, it makes social and economic sense to identify adaptation options now. The case study of Himachal Pradesh shows that, for adaptation measures to be realistic, the needs of different stakeholders with an interest in forest products and services must be addressed. It is recommended that existing programmes to resolve conflicts between different stakeholders be strengthened. Diversification of occupation structures has also been identified as an important strategy to reduce the vulnerability of forest-dependent communities. Additional investment may be required in new areas of research, such as tree genetics programmes, in order to facilitate the selection of species that are resistant to climate change. CR *IIED UEA, 1993, CLIM SCEN IND SUBC H *IPCC, 1990, CLIM CHANG IPCC SCI *IPCC, 1995, IPCC 2 ASS CLIM CHAN ALLEN LH, 1990, J ENVIRON QUAL, V19, P15 DAVIS MB, 1985, QUATERNARY RES, V23, P327 DESHINGKAR P, 1997, ADAPTING CLIMATE CHA DESHINGKAR P, 1998, IN PRESS WORKSH IMP DOGRA PD, 1981, INDIAN FOREST, V107, P191 DOGRA PD, 1992, STATUS INDIAN FOREST, P243 EMANUEL WR, 1985, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V7, P29 GILL BS, 1992, STATUS INDIAN FOREST, P261 GUHA R, 1983, ECON POLIT WEEKLY, V18, P1883 GUHA R, 1983, ECON POLIT WEEKLY, V18, P1940 HALPIN PN, 1995, GLOBAL CHANGE NATURA LAL M, 1995, CURR SCI INDIA, V69, P752 NORBY RJ, 1986, PLANT PHYSIOL, V82, P83 OECHEL WC, 1994, NATURE, V371, P500 PETERS RL, 1985, BIOSCIENCE, V35, P707 PRENTICE IC, 1992, J BIOGEOGR, V19, P117 PURI GS, 1968, TROPICAL ECOLOGY, V36, P1 SAXENA NC, 1992, JOINT FOREST MANAGEM SHARMA LR, 1991, INDIAN J AGR ECON, V46, P422 SMITH JB, 1996, ADAPTING CLIMATE CHA SMITH TM, 1990, GLOBAL FORESTS SOULE ME, 1991, SCIENCE, V253, P744 WIGLEY TML, 1992, NATURE, V357, P293 NR 26 TC 0 J9 INT J ENVIRON POLLUTION BP 186 EP 197 PY 1998 VL 9 IS 2-3 GA ZQ601 UT ISI:000073884400004 ER PT J AU Lowe, R TI Preparing the built environment for climate change SO BUILDING RESEARCH AND INFORMATION LA English DT Editorial Material C1 Leeds Metropolitan Univ, Leeds LS1 3HE, W Yorkshire, England. RP Lowe, R, Leeds Metropolitan Univ, Leeds LS1 3HE, W Yorkshire, England. CR 2002, P TYND CIB INT C CLI *IPCC, 2001, CLIM CHANG 2001 AD C CAMILLERI M, 2001, BUILD RES INF, V29, P440 DUPLESSIS C, 2003, BUILD RES INF, V31, P240 GRAVES HM, 2000, POTENTIAL IMPLICATIO HERTIN J, 2003, BUILD RES INF, V31, P278 HULME M, 1998, CLIMATE CHANGE SCENA LARSSON N, 2003, BUILD RES INF, V31, P231 LISO KR, 2003, BUILD RES INF, V31, P200 LOWE RJ, 2001, 0104 CRISP CTR BUILD LOWE RJ, 2001, BUILD RES INF, V29, P409 MILLS E, 2003, BUILD RES INF, V31, P257 SANDERS CH, 2003, BUILD RES INF, V31, P210 SHIMODA Y, 2003, BUILD RES INF, V31, P222 STEEMERS K, 2003, BUILD RES INF, V31, P291 NR 15 TC 8 J9 BUILDING RES INFORM BP 195 EP 199 PY 2003 PD MAY-AUG VL 31 IS 3-4 GA 688EE UT ISI:000183419700001 ER PT J AU Torell, E TI Adaptation and learning in coastal management: The experience of five East African initiatives SO COASTAL MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article C1 Univ Rhode Isl, Coastal Resource Ctr, Narragansett, RI 02882 USA. Antioch New England Grad Sch, Dept Environm Studies, Keene, NH USA. RP Torell, E, Univ Rhode Isl, Coastal Resource Ctr, Narragansett, RI 02882 USA. AB This article explores principles of adaptive, learning-based resource management and their practical application in coastal management projects in East Africa. The principles of feedback and adjustment, experimentation, and carefully guided participatory processes that capture widespread knowledge are used to describe the experience of five projects in Kenya, Tanzania, and Mozambique. The findings are drawn from a variety of sources, including site visits and interviews. The main finding is that adaptive methods are a major feature of all projects, and the general approaches used in each case are similar. CR *GOV FINL, 1998, ASS INT COAST MAN AF ANDERSON JEC, 1995, AMBIO, V25, P475 BERMAN P, 1980, WHY POLICIES SUCCEED DRYZEK J, 1997, POLITICS EARTH ENV D GUNDERSON LH, 1995, BARRIERS BRIDGES REN, V1, P1 HENNESSEY TM, 1994, COAST MANAGE, V22, P119 HOLLING CS, 1996, RIGHTS NATURE ECOLOG HUMPHREY S, 1997, EXP PRACT WORKSH INT IMPERIAL MT, 1993, OCEAN COAST MANAGE, V20, P147 LEE KN, 1993, COMPASS GYROSCOPE IN LINDEN O, 1996, 2 POL C INT COAST ZO MICHAEL DN, 1995, BARRIERS BRIDGES REN MOFFAT D, 1998, AMBIO, V27, P590 MOFFAT D, 1998, EXP LOC COMM INT COA NGOILE MAK, 1997, OCEAN COAST MANAGE, V37, P295 OLSEN SB, 1999, MANUAL ASSESSING PRO WALTERS CJ, 1997, CONSERVATION ECOLOGY, V11 WEISS CH, 1998, EVALUATION METHODS S NR 18 TC 2 J9 COAST MANAGE BP 353 EP 363 PY 2000 PD OCT-DEC VL 28 IS 4 GA 355UA UT ISI:000089405900006 ER PT J AU Pelling, M High, C TI Understanding adaptation: What can social capital offer assessments of adaptive capacity? SO GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS LA English DT Article C1 Univ London Kings Coll, Dept Geog, London WC2R 2LS, England. RP Pelling, M, Univ London Kings Coll, Dept Geog, London WC2R 2LS, England. AB The burgeoning interest in social capital within the climate change community represents a welcome move towards a concern for the behavioural elements of adaptive action and capacity. In this paper the case is put forward for a critical engagement with social capital. There is need for an open debate on the conceptual and analytical traps and opportunities that social capital presents. The paper contrasts three schools of thought on social capital and uses a social capital lens to map out current and future areas for research on adaptation to climate change. It identifies opportunities for using social capital to research adaptive capacity and action within communities of place and communities of practice. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *UNDP, 2004, RED DIS RISK CHALL D ADGER WN, 1999, WORLD DEV, V27, P249 ADGER WN, 2000, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V90, P735 ADGER WN, 2001, J INT DEV, V13, P921 ADGER WN, 2003, ECON GEOGR, V79, P387 ADLER PS, 2002, ACAD MANAGE REV, V27, P17 ARROW KJ, 1999, SOCIAL CAPITAL MULTI, P3 BARNETT J, 2001, WORLD DEV, V29, P977 BELLIVEAU MA, 1996, ACAD MANAGE J, V39, P1568 BERKHOUT F, 2002, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V12, P83 BOURDIEU P, 1984, DISTINCTION SOCIAL C BOUTY I, 2000, ACAD MANAGE J, V43, P50 BROWN LA, 1991, CYTOPATHOLOGY, V2, P1 BURT RS, 1997, ADMIN SCI QUART, V42, P339 BURTON I, 1978, ENV HAZARD, V1, P1 CARTER TP, 1994, IPCC TECHNICAL GUIDE COLEMAN J, 1990, FDN SOCIAL THEORY DASGUPTA P, 2003, FDN SOCIAL CAPITAL DESAI V, 1995, COMMUNITY PARTICIPAT DURLAUF S, 2002, ECON J, V112, P459 FANKHAUSER S, 1999, ECOL ECON, V30, P67 FINE B, 2001, SOCIAL CAPITAL SOCIA FOX A, 1974, CONTRACT WORK POWER FOX S, 2000, J MANAGE STUD, V37, P853 FREDERICK KD, 1997, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V37, P141 FUKUYAMA F, 1995, TRUST SOCIAL VIRTUES FUKUYAMA F, 2001, THIRD WORLD Q, V22, P7 GIDDENS A, 1990, CONSEQUENCES MODERNI KEANE J, 1998, CIVIL SOC OLD IMAGES LAVE J, 1991, SITUATED LEARNING LE LEONARD R, 2003, J VOLUNTARY NONPROFI, V14, P189 LESSER E, 2000, KNOWLEDGE COMMUNITIE MCILWAINE C, 1998, PROG HUM GEOG, V22, P415 MELE D, 2003, J BUS ETHICS, V45, P3 MOHAN G, 2002, PROG HUM GEOG, V26, P191 NAHAPIET J, 1997, ACAD MANAGEMENT BEST, V3539 OSTROM E, 2000, SOCIAL CAPITAL MULTI PARRY ML, 1999, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V9, P51 PELLING M, 1998, J INT DEV, V10, P469 PELLING M, 2002, INT DEV PLAN REV, V24, P59 PELLING M, 2003, VULNERABILITY CITIES PORTES A, 1998, ANNU REV SOCIOL, V24, P1 PUTNAM R, 1993, MAKING DEMOCRACY WOR PUTNAM R, 1995, PS POLITICAL SCI POL, V28, P667 PUTNAM R, 2000, BOWLING ALONE COLLAP PUTZEL J, 1997, J INT DEV, V9, P251 RAYNER S, 2001, INT J GLOBAL ENV ISS, V1, P175 ROBISON LM, 2002, REV SOC ECON, V60, P1 ROSE R, 2000, SOCIAL CAPITAL MULTI, P147 ROTHSTEIN B, 2003, POWER DEMOCRACY CRIT, P115 RUBIO M, 1997, J ECON ISSUES, V31, P805 SCHULLER T, 2000, SOCIAL CAPITAL CRITI SEIBERT SE, 2001, ACAD MANAGE J, V44, P219 SHAW P, 1997, J ORGAN CHANGE MANAG, V10, P235 SMIT B, 1996, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V33, P7 SMITH B, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P223 SMITHERS J, 1997, AGR RESTRUCTURING SU, P167 SOLOW R, 1999, SOCIAL CAPITAL MULTI, P6 SZRETER S, 1998, 15 SHEFF U TSAI WP, 1998, ACAD MANAGE J, V41, P464 USLANER EM, 2003, AM POLIT RES, V31, P331 WENGER E, 1999, COMMUNITIES PRACTICE WENGER E, 2000, ORGANIZATION, V7, P225 WILDAVSKY A, 1988, SEARCHING SAFETY WOOLCOCK M, 1998, THEOR SOC, V27, P151 WOOLCOCK M, 2000, WORLD BANK RES OBSER, V15, P225 WOOLCOCK M, 2002, SOCIAL CAPITAL DEV C NR 67 TC 5 J9 GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANGE BP 308 EP 319 PY 2005 PD DEC VL 15 IS 4 GA 988TG UT ISI:000233623200004 ER PT J AU CONNER, JR TI ASSESSING THE SOCIOECONOMIC IMPACTS OF CLIMATE-CHANGE ON GRAZINGLANDS SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Article RP CONNER, JR, TEXAS A&M UNIV,DEPT AGR ECON,COLLEGE STN,TX 77843. AB This paper begins with an introduction to human/grazingland interaction, including its history and a description of the general problems in analyzing and assessing human use of this vast resource. The second section provides a review and synopsis of the current state of modeling the socioeconomic aspects of grazinglands. Aspects of biophysical models which can provide useful information on grazingland ecology and variability in the associated resources and human habitat are discussed. Models assessing human activity in relation to grazinglands are reviewed and a few examples of linkage of biophysical and socioeconomic models into integrated assessments for policy analysis are discussed. Modeling the socioeconomic impacts of climate change is discussed in the last section of this report. Problems encountered in incorporating changes in technology and adaptation to such changes are delineated and a model (FLIPSIM) designed to incorporate technological change is discussed. Methods for incorporating technological change and natural adaptation after climate change are then explored with emphasis on use of macro models as a means of parameterizing region specific micro models. The degree of reliability and resolution needed for models to be useful to policy analysts are assessed and it is argued that coarser resolution models are more efficient. The paper ends with an illustration of one type of analysis of socioeconomic impacts of climate change on grasslands that can be conducted with the current data and methodology using a series of models and a 'representative firm' approach. 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RP REILLY, JM, USDA,ECON RES INST,WASHINGTON,DC 20250. AB Estimates of the potential effect of three different climate scenarios for world agriculture are made. The scenarios show that the impacts differ significantly among the scenarios and among countries. The direct impact of climate change on yield, the global effect on commodity prices, and the export/import status of a country are shown to determine the economic winners and losers. The trade effects and the high degree of uncertainty should be critical considerations in adaptation policies. CR 1989, RES COOPERATION AGR ADAMS RM, 1990, NATURE, V345, P219 ARTHUR L, 1988, NATURAL RESOURCE ENV FISCHER G, 1994, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V4, P7 HOUGHTON JT, 1992, CLIMATE CHANGE 1992 JODHA NS, 1989, GREENHOUSE WARMING A, P147 KANE SM, 1992, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V21, P17 KATES RW, 1985, CLIMATE IMPACT ASSES KOKOSKI M, 1987, AM ECON REV, V7, P331 MENDELSOHN R, 1993, RES AGENDA STUDY GLO MOONEY S, 1990, CAN J AGR ECON, V38, P685 PARRY ML, 1988, IMPACTS CLIMATIC VAR, V1 PARRY ML, 1988, IMPACTS CLIMATIC VAR, V2 REILLY JM, 1993, AM ECON REV, V83, P306 RONINGEN, 1991, AGES9151 USDA STAFF ROSENZWEIG C, 1993, CLIMATE CHANGE WORLD ROSENZWEIG, 1993, CLIMATE CHANGE WORLD RUTTAN VW, 1994, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V4, P63 SONKA S, 1991, CLIMATE CHANGE EVALU, P21 SULLIVAN J, 1991, AGES9151 USDA STAFF TOBEY J, 1992, J AGR RESOUR ECON, V17, P195 NR 21 TC 25 J9 GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANGE BP 24 EP 36 PY 1994 PD MAR VL 4 IS 1 GA NK750 UT ISI:A1994NK75000003 ER PT J AU Yohe, GW Tol, RSJ TI Indicators for social and economic coping capacity - moving toward a working definition of adaptive capacity SO GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS LA English DT Article C1 Wesleyan Univ, Dept Econ, Middletown, CT 06459 USA. Univ Hamburg, D-20146 Hamburg, Germany. Vrije Univ, D-20146 Hamburg, Germany. Carnegie Mellon Univ, D-20146 Hamburg, Germany. RP Yohe, GW, Wesleyan Univ, Dept Econ, Middletown, CT 06459 USA. AB This paper offers a practically motivated method for evaluating systems' abilities to handle external stress, The method is designed to assess the potential contributions of various adaptation options to improving systems' coping capacities by focusing attention directly on the underlying determinants of adaptive capacity. The method should be sufficiently flexible to accommodate diverse applications, hose contexts are location specific and path dependent without imposing the straightjacket constraints of a "one size fits all" cookbook approach. Nonetheless, the method should produce unitless indicators that can be employed to judge the relative vulnerabilities of diverse systems to multiple stresses and to their potential interactions. An artificial application is employed to describe the development of the method and to illustrate how it might be applied. Some empirical evidence is offered to underscore the significance of the determinants of adaptive capacity in determining vulnerability these are the determinants upon which the method is constructed, The method is, finally. applied directly to expert judgments of six different adaptations that could reduce vulnerability in the Netherlands to increased flooding along the Rhine River. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *INT PAN CLIM CHAN, 2001, IPCC 2000 IMP AD VUL BERZ GA, 1999, MITIGATION ADAPTATIO, V4, P283 DEFREITAS CR, 1989, POPULATION DISASTER, P98 DEVRIES J, 1985, CLIMATE IMPACT ASSES, P273 DOWNING TE, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE WORLD, P662 DOWNING TE, 1997, MITIGATION ADAPTATIO, V2, P19 HEWITT J, 1971, HAZARDOUSNESS PLACE, P312 KANE SM, 1992, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V21, P17 KARL TR, 1998, B AM METEOROL SOC, V79, P231 MEARNS LO, 1997, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V35, P367 OLSTHOORN AA, 2001, FLOODS FLOOD MANAGEM, P43 PITTOCK AB, 2000, ENVIRON MONIT ASSESS, V61, P9 SMIT B, 1999, MITIGATION ADAPTATIO, V4, P199 SMIT B, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P223 SMITHERS J, 1997, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V7, P129 TOL RSJ, 2001, FLOODS FLOOD MANAGEM VANDERGRIJP NM, 2001, FLOODS FLOOD MANAGEM, P5 VANDERWERFF PE, 2001, FLOODS FLOOD MANAGEM, P89 YOHE GW, 1996, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V32, P387 YOHE GW, 1998, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V38, P437 NR 20 TC 5 J9 GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANGE BP 25 EP 40 PY 2002 PD APR VL 12 IS 1 GA 551TL UT ISI:000175577700004 ER PT J AU Young, OR Berkhout, F Gallopin, GC Janssen, MA Ostrom, E Leeuw, SVD TI The globalization of socio-ecological systems: An agenda for scientific research SO GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS LA English DT Article C1 Arizona State Univ, Sch Human Evolut & Social Change, Tempe, AZ 85287 USA. Arizona State Univ, Sch Comp & Informat, Tempe, AZ 85287 USA. Indiana Univ, Dept Polit Sci, Bloomington, IN 47408 USA. Indiana Univ, Workship Polit Theory & Policy Anal, Bloomington, IN 47408 USA. Univ Calif Santa Barbara, Bern Sch Environm Sci & Management, Santa Barbara, CA 93106 USA. Vrije Univ Amsterdam, Inst Environm Studies, IVM, NL-1081 HV Amsterdam, Netherlands. UN, ECLAC, Santiago, Chile. RP Janssen, MA, Arizona State Univ, Sch Human Evolut & Social Change, Box 872402, Tempe, AZ 85287 USA. AB We argue that globalization is a central feature of coupled human-environment systems or, as we call them, socio-ecological systems (SESs). In this article, we focus on the effects of globalization on the resilience, vulnerability, and adaptability of these systems. We begin with a brief discussion of key terms, arguing that socio-economic resilience regularly substitutes for biophysical resilience in SESs with consequences that are often unforeseen. A discussion of several mega-trends (e.g. the rise of mega-cities, the demand for hydrocarbons, the revolution in information technologies) underpins our argument. We then proceed to identify key analytical dimensions of globalization, including rising connectedness, increased speed, spatial stretching, and declining diversity. We show how each of these phenomena can cut both ways in terms of impacts on the resilience and vulnerability of SESs. A particularly important insight flowing from this analysis centers on the reversal of the usual conditions in which large-scale things are slow and durable while small-scale things are fast and ephemeral. The fact that SESs are reflexive can lead either to initiatives aimed at avoiding or mitigating the dangers of globalization or to positive feedback processes that intensify the impacts of globalization. In the concluding section, we argue for sustained empirical research regarding these concerns and make suggestions about ways to enhance the incentives for individual researchers to work on these matters. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 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CR *INDIA GOVT, 1907, MADR DISTR GAZ VIZG *INDIA GOVT, 1961, 7 VILL SURV MON KODA K, 1977, MARRIAGE REGULATION RAO MK, 1975, THESIS ANDHRA U SAHLINS M, 1964, HORIZONS ANTHR THURSTON E, 1909, CASTES TRIBES SO IND NR 6 TC 0 J9 MAN INDIA BP 69 EP 75 PY 1981 VL 61 IS 1 GA LX576 UT ISI:A1981LX57600006 ER PT J AU OBrien, KL Leichenko, RM Kelkar, U Venema, H Aandahl, G Tompkins, H Javed, A Bhadwal, S Barg, S Nygaard, L West, J TI Mapping vulnerability to multiple stressors: climate change and globalization in India SO GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS LA English DT Article C1 CICERO, N-0318 Oslo, Norway. Rutgers State Univ, Dept Geog, Piscataway, NJ 08854 USA. Tata Energy Res Inst, New Delhi 110003, India. IISD, Winnipeg, MB R3B 0Y4, Canada. RP OBrien, KL, CICERO, POB 1129, N-0318 Oslo, Norway. AB There is growing recognition in the human dimensions research communuity that climate change impact studies must take into account the effects of other ongoing global changes. Yet there has been no systematic methodology to study climate change vulnerability in the context of multiple stressors. Using the example of Indian agriculture, this paper presents a methodology for investigating regional vulnerability to climate change in combination with other global stressors. This method, which relies on both vulnerability mapping and local-level case studies, may be used to assess differential vulnerability for any particular sector within a nation or region. and it can serve as a basis for targeting policy interventions. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *CGWB, 1996, GROUNDW STAT 1996 *CMIE, 2000, PROF DISTR *NATMO, 1980, NAT THEM MAPP ORG *NBSS LUP, 1994, IND SOIL DEGR HUM IN *UNIDO, 1995, IND GLOB AGGARWAL PK, 2002, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V52, P331 BAGLA P, 2002, SCIENCE, V297, P1265 BHALLA GS, 1994, EC LIBERALISATION IN CHAUDHURY P, 1998, EC LIBERALISATION IN, P256 CONROY ME, 1993, J INTERAMERICAN STUD, V34, P1 DEARDORFF AV, 2000, SOCIAL DIMENSIONS US DINAR A, 1998, 402 WORLD BANK DOWNING TE, 2000, CLIMATE CHANGE VULNE DREZE J, 2002, INDIA DEV PARTICIPAT FREEBAIRN DK, 1995, WORLD DEV, V23, P265 GADGIL S, 1995, CURR SCI INDIA, V69, P649 GOLDMAN A, 1995, WORLD DEV, V23, P243 GULATI A, 1999, ECON POLIT WEEKLY, V34, P41 GULATI A, 1999, INDIAS EC REFORMS DE, P122 GULATI A, 1999, TRADE LIBERALIZATION JONES PG, 2003, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V13, P51 KASPERSON JX, 2001, GLOBAL ENV RISK KUMAR KR, 2002, CLIMATE CHANGE INDIA, P24 KUMAR KSK, 2001, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V11, P147 LAL M, 1995, CURR SCI INDIA, V69, P752 LAL M, 1998, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V89, P101 LEICHENKO RM, 2002, MITIGATION ADAPTATIO, V7, P1 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 MCLEAN RF, 1998, REGIONAL IMPACTS CLI MEARNS LO, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, P739 MENON P, 2001, FARM CRISIS SUICIDES, V18 MITRA AP, 2002, GLOBAL REGIONAL LINK MITTELMAN JH, 1994, THIRD WORLD Q, V15, P427 MITTELMAN JH, 2000, GLOBALIZATION SYNDOM NEW M, 1999, J CLIMATE, V12, P829 OBRIEN JT, 2003, LANCET NEUROL, V2, P89 OBRIEN KL, 2000, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V10, P221 POLSKY C, 2003, ASSESSING VULNERABIL RAJAN RS, 2002, WORLD ECON, V3, P87 RAMACHANDRAN M, 1997, APPL GEOGRAPHIC INFO RIBOT JC, 1996, CLIMATE VARIABILITY, V1, P1 SANGHI A, 1998, INDIA AGR CLIMATE DA SANYAL A, 1993, NATURE MAN INDIAN EC SEN AK, 1999, ESSAYS MANMOHAN SING, P73 SHIVA V, 2000, STOLEN HARVEST HIJAC TURNPENNY JR, 2002, CLIMATE RES, V20, P189 WEBSTER PJ, 1998, J GEOPHYS RES-OCEANS, V103, P14451 NR 47 TC 0 J9 GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANGE BP 303 EP 313 PY 2004 PD DEC VL 14 IS 4 GA 897NL UT ISI:000227010900002 ER PT J AU Kristensen, NP Gabric, A Braddock, R Cropp, R TI Is maximizing resilience compatible with established ecological goal functions? SO ECOLOGICAL MODELLING LA English DT Article C1 Univ Queensland, Dept Math, St Lucia, Qld 4072, Australia. Univ Queensland, Dept Zool & Entomol, St Lucia, Qld 4072, Australia. Griffith Univ, Sch Australian Environm Studies, Nathan, Qld 4111, Australia. Griffith Univ, Sch Environm Engn, Nathan, Qld 4111, Australia. RP Kristensen, NP, Univ Queensland, Dept Math, St Lucia, Qld 4072, Australia. AB Cropp and Gabric [Ecosystem adaptation: do ecosystems maximise resilience? Ecology. In press] used a simple phytoplanktonzooplankton-nutrient model and a genetic algorithm to determine the parameter values that would maximize the value of certain goal functions. These goal functions were to maximize biomass, maximize flux, maximize flux to biomass ratio, and maximize resilience. It was found that maximizing goal functions maximized resilience. The objective of this study was to investigate whether the Cropp and Gabric [Ecosystem adaptation: do ecosystems maximise resilience? Ecology. In press] result was indicative of a general ecosystem principle, or peculiar to the model and parameter ranges used. This study successfully replicated the Cropp and Gabric [Ecosystem adaptation: do ecosystems maximise resilience? Ecology. In press] experiment for a number of different model types, however, a different interpretation of the results is made. A new metric, concordance, was devised to describe the agreement between goal functions. It was found that resilience has the highest concordance of all goal functions trialled. for most model types. This implies that resilience offers a compromise between the established ecological goal functions. The parameter value range used is found to affect the parameter versus goal function relationships. Local maxima and minima affected the relationship between parameters and goal functions, and between goal functions. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. CR AOKI I, 1988, ECOL MODEL, V42, P289 CHOI JS, 1999, ECOL MODEL, V117, P143 COOKE GD, 1967, BIOSCIENCE, V17, P717 COOPER A, 1981, FOREST SUCCESSION CO, P339 CROPP R, 2002, ECOLOGY, V83, P2019 DEANGELIS DL, 1975, ECOLOGY, V56, P238 DEANGELIS DL, 1978, NATURE, V273, P406 DEANGELIS DL, 1992, DYNAMICS NUTR CYCLIN DRUON JN, 1999, J MARINE SYST, V19, P1 FATH BD, 2001, J THEOR BIOL, V208, P493 GOODMAN D, 1975, Q REV BIOL, V50, P237 HALL CAS, 1995, MAXIMUM POWER IDEAS JOHNSON L, 1988, ENTROPY INFORMATION, P75 JOHNSON L, 1995, COMPLEX ECOLOGY PART, P51 JORGENSEN SE, 1977, ECOL MODEL, V3, P39 JORGENSEN SE, 1981, DEV ENV MODELLING, V1, P587 JORGENSEN SE, 1982, ENERGETICS SYSTEMS, P61 JORGENSEN SE, 1999, ECOL MODEL, V120, P75 KAY JJ, 1992, ECOLOGICAL INDICATOR, V1, P159 KAY JJ, 1994, ALTERNATIVES, V20, P32 LAWS EA, 2000, GLOBAL BIOGEOCHEM CY, V14, P1231 LENTON TM, 1998, NATURE, V394, P439 LOTKA AJ, 1922, P NATIONAL ACADEMY S, V8, P147 MANSSON BA, 1993, OECOLOGIA, V93, P582 MARGALEF R, 1968, PERSPECTIVES ECOLOGI MAUERSBERGER P, 1995, COMPLEX ECOLOGY PART, P130 MEJER H, 1978, ECOLOGICAL MODELLING, P829 NAEEM S, 1997, NATURE, V390, P507 ODUM EP, 1969, SCIENCE, V164, P262 ODUM HT, 1983, SYSTEMS ECOLOGY INTR PRIGOGINE I, 1984, ORDER OUT CHAOS MANS TILMAN D, 1996, ECOLOGY, V77, P350 TOUSSAINT O, 1998, COMP BIOCHEM PHYS A, V120, P3 ULANOWICZ RE, 1980, J THEOR BIOL, V85, P223 WILHELM T, 2000, ECOL MODEL, V132, P231 NR 35 TC 0 J9 ECOL MODEL BP 61 EP 71 PY 2003 PD NOV 1 VL 169 IS 1 GA 742JT UT ISI:000186514200005 ER PT J AU Pedersen, D TI Disease ecology at a crossroads: Man-made environments, human rights and perpetual development utopias SO SOCIAL SCIENCE & MEDICINE LA English DT Article C1 HARVARD UNIV,SCH MED,DEPT SOCIAL MED,BOSTON,MA 02115. AB There is a growing body of critical literature on health, development and environmental sustainability in a world of finite resources and overburdened ecosystems. The ethics of progress and perpetual development in pursuit of unlimited economic growth and ever-expanding markets are no longer viable, given the constraints imposed on the life-support systems of the biosphere and a finite resource base, which poses the most serious threat to life on Earth. Despite increasing evidence of the linkages between economic growth and environmental deterioration and a rhetoric expressed in a growing body of laws, regulations, accords and global ''agendas'' at the national and international level, there are all too few success stories in reversing or even slowing down the current trends of ecosystem degradation and decreasing cultural and biological diversity. Or. the contrary, there is evidence that environmental stress and deterioration are increasing, and the impact on the mental, physical and social health and well-being of populations is more significant now than in any previous time in history. The fragmentation of countries, the rise of nationalism and ethnic conflict, the decimation of indigenous nations and human rights abuses are often closely interrelated with environmental degradation and development initiatives. This paper reviews some of the concepts and underlying values of the main ''models'' developed by health and social scientists for interpreting this reality, with the aim of stimulating debate that could lead to the adoption of a larger and more comprehensive framework for analysing the interactions between human health, development and environmental change. 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RP Sagar, AD, Harvard Univ, John F Kennedy Sch Govt, Sci Technol & Publ Policy Program, Belfer Ctr Sci & Int Affairs, Cambridge, MA 02138 USA. AB The notion of capacity development (CD) has been receiving increasing attention as a way to assist the South in its environmental management. Consequently, there has been an exploration of various facets of the capacity issue in the literature and an incorporation of CD in environmental programs of donor agencies. Yet, many of these discussions have remained rather broad, and efforts to develop environmental capacity have shown only limited success. Based on an examination of the capacity needs for environmental management in agriculture and industry, and for dealing with climate change, this review suggests that strengthening domestic capabilities for policy research and innovation as well as for managing technological change may be particularly critical to allow for adaptation of policies and technologies for local conditions and needs. Examination of innovative local experiments on environmental management in developing countries can also provide useful lessons on how to develop and utilize capacity that works under the constrained conditions often found in developing countries. Furthermore, it is important to stress that improving the environment in developing countries also requires capacity in the North to examine and reorient Northern policies that impact the environment, as well as capacity for the environment, in the poorer parts of the world. Ultimately, though, the development of sustainable and appropriate capacity for the environment will require not merely donor-driven programs but a systematic effort driven by Southern governments and organizations. 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VIVIAN J, 1994, DEV CHANGE, V25, P181 WADE R, 1990, GOVERNING MARKET EC WARREN DM, 1996, SUSTAINABLE DEV 3 WO, V2, P15 WATANABE S, 1993, TECHNOLOGY WEALTH NA, P353 WATSON RT, 1999, REP 5 C PART UN FRAM WEISS CH, 1989, J POLICY ANAL MANAG, V8, P411 WEISS CH, 1992, ORG POLICY ANAL HELP, P1 WILDAVSKY A, 1979, SPEAKING TRUTH POWER YE XD, 2000, SCIENCE, V287, P303 NR 256 TC 4 J9 ANNU REV ENERG ENVIRON BP 377 EP 439 PY 2000 VL 25 GA 396EZ UT ISI:000166624500013 ER PT J AU Murdiyarso, D TI Adaptation to climatic variability and change: Asian perspectives on agriculture and food security SO ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING AND ASSESSMENT LA English DT Article C1 BIOTROP GCTE Impacts Ctr SE Asia, Bogor, Indonesia. RP Murdiyarso, D, BIOTROP GCTE Impacts Ctr SE Asia, Jl Raya Tajur Km 6,POB 116, Bogor, Indonesia. AB The impacts of climate change on potential rice production in Asia are reviewed in the light of the adaptation to climatic variability and change. Collaborative studies carried out by IRRI and US-EPA reported that using process-based crop simulation models increasing temperature may decrease rice potential yield up to 7.4% per degree increment of temperature. When climate scenarios predicted by GCMs were applied it was demonstrated that rice production in Asia may decline by 3.8% under the climates of the next century. Moreover, changes in rainfall pattern and distribution were also found suggesting the possible shift of agricultural lands in the region. The studies however have not taken the impacts of climatic variability into account, which often produce extreme events like that caused by monsoons and El Nino. Shifts in rice-growing areas are likely to be constrained by land-use changes occurring for other developmental reasons, which may force greater cultivation of marginal lands and further deforestation. This should be taken into account and lead to more integrated assessment, especially in developing countries where land-use change is more a top-down policy rather than farmers' decision. A key question is: To what extent will improving the ability of societies to cope with current climatic variability through changing design of agricultural systems and practices help the same societies cope with the likely changes in climate? CR BACHELET D, 1995, MODELING IMPACT CLIM, P85 BARRY TA, 1995, WORLD RESOURCE REV, V7 FISCHER G, 1995, ASA SPECIAL PUBL, V59, P341 FISCHER G, 1996, NATO ASI SERIES I, V37, P115 GOMMES R, 1993, AGR DIMENSIONS GLOBA, P67 HANSEN J, 1988, J GEOPHYS RES, V93, P9341 HORIE T, 1995, MODELING IMPACT CLIM, P51 ISLAM N, 1995, POPULATION FOOD EARL KANE SM, 1991, 647 AER USDA EC RES KROPFF MJ, 1995, MODELING IMPACT CLIM, P27 LANSIGAN FP, 1997, FIELD CROP RES, V51, P133 LEBEL L, 1996, LIVING GLOBAL CHANGE MATTHEWS RB, 1995, MODELING IMPACT CLIM MATTHEWS RB, 1995, MODELING IMPACT CLIM, P95 ROSENZWEIG C, 1993, AGR DIMENSIONS GLOBA, P87 TOBEY J, 1992, J AGR RESOUR ECON, V17, P195 WETHERALD RT, 1988, J ATMOS SCI, V45, P1397 WILSON CA, 1987, J GEOPHYS RES-ATMOSP, V92, P13315 NR 18 TC 1 J9 ENVIRON MONIT ASSESS BP 123 EP 131 PY 2000 PD MAR VL 61 IS 1 GA 300UB UT ISI:000086270100010 ER PT J AU Easterling, WE TI Why regional studies are needed in the development of full-scale integrated assessment modelling of global change processes SO GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS LA English DT Article C1 Penn State Univ, Dept Geog, University Pk, PA 16802 USA. RP Easterling, WE, Penn State Univ, Dept Geog, 302 Walker Bldg, University Pk, PA 16802 USA. AB Full-scale integrated assessment models (IAMs) allow many components of the global climate change problem to be examined in one framework. The chief advantage of the IAM approach over less complete modelling frameworks is that the socio-economic and environmental consequences of policy choices aimed at abating or adapting to climate change can be evaluated in their totality, However, the highly aggregate functional forms that IAMs currently embed are lacking in sufficient regional and sectoral detail to be totally credible. In this paper, ten reasons why regional studies are needed in support of the development of full-scale IAMs are given. A strategic cyclical scaling exercise involving regional and global integrated modelling frameworks is proposed, (C) 1997 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. 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Acclimatise, Nottingham NG25 0BY, England. Govt Off London, London SW1P 4RR, England. RP Hedger, MM, Environm Agcy, Rio House,Waterside Dr,Aztec W, Bristol BS32 4UD, Avon, England. AB The methods, tools and outputs of the UK Climate Impacts Programme (UKCIP) show how building adaptive capacity to climate change can be embedded within a wide range of organizations. UKCIP has been operating since 1997 to support decision-makers' assessments of their vulnerability to climate change so that they can plan how to adapt. Whilst stakeholder engagement is now generally regarded as vital to ensure that research meets the needs of decision-makers for information, this usually means that stakeholders are positioned in a 'consultative' role in research. In contrast, the UKCIP aims to bridge the gap between research and policy so that decision-makers take control to produce research in ways that are useful to them. The Programme has been flexible and was developed incrementally, with increased scientific understanding, taking advantage of collaborative funding and facilitating long-standing partnerships. Whilst the core framework of scenarios and tools has been developed centrally, most studies have been stakeholder-funded and led. The Programme's results suggest that if decision-makers are supported, capacity is built for assessments, and crucially, research outputs are directly applicable to their ongoing work and strategic planning. This capacity-building has worked across scales and sectors and is an effective route to mainstreaming climate change adaptation. The implication, therefore, is that more support should be given by funding agencies to develop institutional capacity to support adaptation to climate change in both the private and public sectors. 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RP Porro, R, Ctr Int Agr Trop, Travessa Dr Eneas Pinheiro S-N,CIFOR Off CPATU, BR-66095100 Belem, Para, Brazil. AB This article examines transformations associated with changes in resource use and land cover dynamics in the community of Sao Manoel, Maranhao state, in the eastern Brazilian Amazon. The shifting cultivator peasants in Sao Manoel integrate swidden fields for annual cropping, the extraction of babassu palm products, and pastures for cattle ranching. Since the early twentieth century, predominant vegetative cover patterns have been altered from species-rich mature forests to secondary succession with babassu dominant to pasture or swidden fields containing palm stands of various densities. A grounded political ecology of resource use in the area suggests that management strategies and the resulting land cover dynamics integrate site-specific decisions of peasant producers. I discuss the trajectory of production strategies in Sao Manoel since the establishment of the community in the 1920s, and identify the multiple dimensions affecting resource use and environmental outcomes, with an emphasis on the period following land struggles and the recovery of peasant tenure rights in the mid-1980s. The analysis indicates that socionatural trajectories that optimize resource use and address the socioeconomic needs of the community include the maintenance of palm/pastures associations. 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Penn State Univ, EMS Environm Inst, University Pk, PA 16802 USA. Univ Southampton, Southampton Oceanog Ctr, Southampton SO14 3ZH, Hants, England. Yale Univ, Dept Econ, New Haven, CT 06520 USA. Univ Arizona, Inst Study Planet Earth, Tucson, AZ 85721 USA. Columbia Univ, Lamont Doherty Earth Observ, Palisades, NY 10964 USA. NASA, Goddard Inst Space Studies, New York, NY 10025 USA. Univ Colorado, Ctr Sci & Technol Policy Res, Cooperat Inst Res Environm Sci, Boulder, CO 80309 USA. Univ Chicago, Dept Geophys Sci, Chicago, IL 60637 USA. Univ Washington, Dept Atmospher Sci, Seattle, WA 98195 USA. Univ Washington, Dept Oceanog, Seattle, WA 98195 USA. Univ Bern, Inst Phys, CH-3012 Bern, Switzerland. Univ Calif San Diego, Scripps Inst Oceanog, La Jolla, CA 92093 USA. RP Alley, RB, Penn State Univ, Dept Geosci, University Pk, PA 16802 USA. AB Large, abrupt, and widespread climate changes with major impacts have occurred repeatedly in the past, when the Earth system was forced across thresholds. Although abrupt climate changes can occur for many reasons, it is conceivable that human forcing of climate change is increasing the probability of large, abrupt events. Were such an event to recur, the economic and ecological impacts could be large and potentially serious. Unpredictability exhibited near climate thresholds in simple models shows that some uncertainty will always be associated with projections. In light of these uncertainties, policy-makers should consider expanding research into abrupt climate change, improving monitoring systems, and taking actions designed to enhance the adaptability and resilience of ecosystems and economies. CR MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 *IPCC, 2001, CLIM CHANG 2001 SCI *NAT RES COUNC, 65 NRC *NAT RES COUNC, 2002, ABR CLIM CHANG IN SU ALLEY RB, 1997, GEOLOGY, V25, P483 ALLEY RB, 2001, PALEOCEANOGRAPHY, V16, P190 BARBER DC, 1999, NATURE, V400, P344 BARLOW LK, 1997, HOLOCENE, V7, P489 BICE KL, 2002, PALEOCEANOGRAPHY, V17 BISWAS MK, 1980, DESERTIFICATION BOND G, 2001, SCIENCE, V294, P2130 BROECKER WS, 1997, SCIENCE, V278, P1582 BROECKER WS, 2002, GLACIAL WORLD ACCORD BROOK EJ, 1999, GEOPH MONOG SERIES, V112, P165 CAPPELEN J, 2002, 0206 DAN MET I COLWELL RR, 1996, SCIENCE, V274, P2025 CUFFEY KM, 1997, J GEOPHYS RES-OCEANS, V102, P26383 DELWORTH TL, 2000, SCIENCE, V287, P2246 DICKSON B, 2002, NATURE, V416, P832 EBBESMEYER CC, 1991, P 7 ANN PAC CLIM PAC, P115 GASSE F, 2000, QUATERNARY SCI REV, V19, P189 GRAHAM NE, 1994, CLIM DYNAM, V10, P135 HARTMANN DL, 2000, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V97, P1412 HASTENRATH S, 1977, Q J ROY METEOR SOC, V103, P77 HODELL DA, 1995, NATURE, V375, P391 HUGHEN KA, 1996, NATURE, V380, P51 HURT DR, 1981, AGR SOCIAL HIST DUST KELLER K, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V47, P17 KNUTTI R, 2002, J CLIMATE, V15, P179 KUTZBACH J, 1996, NATURE, V384, P623 LAIRD KR, 1998, WORLD DATA CTR A PAL LATIF M, 2000, J CLIMATE, V13, P1809 LIU KB, 2001, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V91, P453 LORENZ EN, 1963, J ATMOS SCI, V20, P130 MANABE S, 1997, PALEOCEANOGRAPHY, V12, P321 MANTUA NJ, 1997, B AM METEOROL SOC, V78, P1069 MAROTZKE J, 1990, THESIS I MEERESKUNDE MAROTZKE J, 1996, DECADAL CLIMATE VARI MORRILL CT, IN PRESS HOLOCENE NICHOLSON SE, 1998, B AM METEOROL SOC, V79, P815 NORDHAUS WD, 2000, WARMING WORLD EC MOD OVERPECK JT, 2003, IGBP SYNTHESIS VOLUM, P81 PETEET D, 2000, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V97, P1359 PETEET DM, 1990, QUATERNARY RES, V33, P219 PETERSON BJ, 2002, SCIENCE, V298, P2171 POLZIN KL, 1997, SCIENCE, V276, P93 REILLY JM, 1993, 93012WP MITCEEPR REILLY JM, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P253 SEAGER R, 2002, Q J R METEOROL SOC SELLERS WD, 1969, J APPL METEOROL, V8, P392 SEVERINGHAUS JP, 1998, NATURE, V391, P141 STOCKER TF, 1997, NATURE, V388, P862 STOCKER TF, 2000, QUATERNARY SCI REV, V19, P301 STOCKER TF, 2002, SCIENCE, V297, P1814 STOMMEL H, 1961, TELLUS, V13, P224 STREETS DG, 2000, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V10, P97 TINNER W, 2001, GEOLOGY, V29, P551 WALKER JCG, 1981, J GEOPHYS RES, V86, P9776 WALLACE JM, 2002, PHYS TODAY, V55, P28 WANG YJ, 2001, SCIENCE, V294, P2345 WEISS H, 1993, SCIENCE, V261, P995 WOODHOUSE CA, 1998, B AM METEOROL SOC, V79, P2693 YOHE GW, 1998, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V38, P337 NR 63 TC 26 J9 SCIENCE BP 2005 EP 2010 PY 2003 PD MAR 28 VL 299 IS 5615 GA 660LG UT ISI:000181834200034 ER PT J AU Rappaport, RA TI Maladaptation in social systems SO EVOLUTION SOCIAL SYS LA English DT Chapter RP RAPPAPORT, RA, UNIV MICHIGAN,DEPT ANTHROPOL,ANN ARBOR,MI 48109. NR 0 TC 0 J9 EVOLUTION SOCIAL SYS BP 49 EP 71 PY 1977 PD DEC 29 VL 1 IS 1 GA ZD200 UT ISI:000072661400001 ER PT J AU CROSSON, PR ROSENBERG, NJ TI AN OVERVIEW OF THE MINK STUDY SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 PACIFIC NW LAB, WASHINGTON, DC 20024 USA. RP CROSSON, PR, RESOURCES FUTURE INC, 1616 P ST NW, WASHINGTON, DC 20036 USA. AB Highlights of the previous papers in this series are reviewed. Methodology developed for the MINK study has improved the ability of impacts analysis to deal with questions of (1) spatial and temporal variability in climate change; (2) CO2-enrichment effects; (3) the reactions of complex enterprises (farms and forests) to climate change and their ability to adjust and adapt; and (4) integrated effects on current and, more particularly, on future regional economies. The methodology also provides for systematic study of adjustment and adaptation opportunities and of the inter-industry linkages that determine what the overall impacts on the regional economy might be. The analysis shows that with a 1930s 'dust bowl' climate the region-wide economic impacts would be small, after adjustments in affected sectors. In this final paper we consider whether synergistic effects among sectoral impacts and more severe climate change scenarios might alter this conclusion. The MINK analysis, as is, leads to the conclusion that a strong research capacity will be required to ensure that technologies facilitating adaptation to climate change will be available when needed. The capacity to deal with climate change also requires an open economy allowing for free trade and movement of people and for institutions that protect unpriced environmental values. More severe climate scenarios and negative synergisms can only strengthen these conclusions. CR CROSSON PR, 1991, RESOURCES SPR CROSSON PR, 1989, SCI AM, V260, P128 CROSSON PR, 1991, DOERL01830TH7TR052C EASTERLING WE, 1991, DOERL01830TH8TR052D MANABE S, 1986, SCIENCE, V232, P626 POPPER DE, 1987, PLANNING, V53, P12 ROSENBERG NJ, 1992, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V21, P385 SMITH JB, 1989, POTENTIAL EFFECTS GL NR 8 TC 7 J9 CLIMATIC CHANGE BP 159 EP 173 PY 1993 PD JUN VL 24 IS 1-2 GA LR185 UT ISI:A1993LR18500008 ER PT J AU Kryazhimskii, FV Bolshakov, VN Koryukin, VI TI Man in the light of current ecological problems SO RUSSIAN JOURNAL OF ECOLOGY LA English DT Article C1 Russian Acad Sci, Ural Div, Inst Plant & Anim Ecol, Ekaterinburg 620144, Russia. RP Kryazhimskii, FV, Russian Acad Sci, Ural Div, Inst Plant & Anim Ecol, Ul Vosmogo Marta 202, Ekaterinburg 620144, Russia. AB The interaction of man and nature is considered in terms of classical ecology, which is becoming a synthetic systemic science based on a set of other sciences. The divisions of modem human ecology that deal with different organizational levels of ecological systems have been developed to different degrees. Attention is given to the necessity of discrediting the mechanistic concept of opposition between man and nature and taking into account the specific ecological functions of man related to group adaptation (culture), as well as the global role of all living organisms in the maintenance of environmental conditions on Earth. CR ALEKSEEV VP, 1993, OCHERKI EKOLOGII CHE BAZYKIN AD, 1985, MATEMATICHESKAYA BIO BOLSHAKOV VN, 1996, EKOLOGIYA, V27, P165 BOLSHAKOV VN, 1997, EKOLOGICHESKIE ISSLE, P5 BOLSHAKOV VN, 1998, EKOLOGIYA, V29, P339 DECHARDIN PT, 1955, PHENOMENE HUMAIN GORSHKOV VG, 1988, DOKL AKAD NAUK SSSR, V301, P1015 GORSHKOV VG, 1990, EKOLOGIYA, V21, P7 GORSHKOV VG, 1995, FIZICHESKIE BIOL OSN HAECKEL E, 1866, GEN MORPHOLOGIE ORGA, V1 HENS L, 1996, EKOLOGIYA, V27, P171 HOLLING CS, 1981, IIASA INT SERIES, V3 KAZNACHEEV VP, 1988, OCHERKI TEORII PRAKT KRAYAZHIMSKII FV, 1999, EKOLOGIYA FUNDAMENTA, P48 LORENZ EN, 1963, J ATMOS SCI, V20, P130 LOVELOCK JE, 1979, GAIA NEW LOOK LIFE E MEADOWS DH, 1982, LIMITS CONFRONTING G NICOLIS G, 1989, EXPLORING COMPLEXITY ROZENBERG GS, 1999, EKOLOGIYA, V30, P89 SHILOV IA, 1977, EKOLOGO FIZIOLOGICHE SHVARTS SS, 1967, ZOOL ZH, V46, P1456 SHVARTS SS, 1971, IZV AN SSSR BIOL, V28, P485 SHVARTS SS, 1974, VOPR FILOS, P102 TIMOFEEFRESSOVS.NV, 1973, OCHERK UCHENIYA POPU VERNADSKY VI, 1945, AM SCI, V33, P1 VERNADSKY VI, 1978, ZHIVOE VESHCHESTVO VONBERTALANFFY L, 1969, ISSLEDOVANIYA PO OBS, P23 NR 27 TC 1 J9 RUSS J ECOL-ENGL TR BP 369 EP 374 PY 2001 PD NOV-DEC VL 32 IS 6 GA 499NW UT ISI:000172578100001 ER PT J AU Rosenberg, NJ Edmonds, JA TI Climate change impacts for the conterminous USA: An integrated assessment: From MINK to the 'lower 48' - An introductory editorial SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Editorial Material C1 Univ Maryland, Pacific NW Natl Lab, Joint Global Change Res INst, College Pk, MD 20740 USA. RP Rosenberg, NJ, Univ Maryland, Pacific NW Natl Lab, Joint Global Change Res INst, College Pk, MD 20740 USA. CR *IPCC, 2001, REG IMP CLIM CHANG, CH8 *NAT AC SCI, 1992, POL IMPL GREENH WARM, P541 ALCAMO J, 1994, IMAGE 2 0 INTEGRATED CUBASCH U, 2002, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 DOWLATABADI H, 1993, ENERG POLICY, V21, P209 DOWLATABADI H, 1994, W EC ASS C 29 JUN VA MANNE A, 1995, ENERG POLICY, V23, P17 MORGAN MG, 1996, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V34, P337 MORI S, 1999, INT J GLOBAL ENERGY, V11, P1 MORI S, 2000, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V63, P289 MORITA T, 1994, ASIAN PACIFIC INTEGR NORDHAUS W, 1994, WARMING WORLD EC MOD NORDHAUS W, 1996, DICE MODEL GUIDE PRINN R, 1999, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V41, P469 REILLY JM, 2003, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V57, P43 ROSENBERG NJ, 1982, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V4, P239 ROSENBERG NJ, 1992, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V21, P385 ROSENBERG NJ, 1993, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V24, P1 ROTMANS J, 1990, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V16, P331 ROTMANS J, 1997, PERSPECTIVES GLOBAL SANKOVSKI A, 2000, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V63 NR 21 TC 0 J9 CLIMATIC CHANGE BP 1 EP 6 PY 2005 PD MAR VL 69 IS 1 GA 910UF UT ISI:000227957000001 ER PT J AU Menzel, A Von Vopelius, J Estrella, N Schleip, C Dose, V TI Farmers' annual activities are not tracking the speed of climate change SO CLIMATE RESEARCH LA English DT Article C1 Tech Univ Munich, Dept Ecol, Chair Ecoclimatol, D-85354 Freising Weihenstephan, Germany. Max Planck Inst Plasma Phys, D-85748 Garching, Germany. RP Menzel, A, Tech Univ Munich, Dept Ecol, Chair Ecoclimatol, Am Hochabger 13, D-85354 Freising Weihenstephan, Germany. AB Global climate change impacts are already tracked in many physical and biological systems and they reveal a consistent picture of changes, e.g. an earlier onset of spring events in mid and higher latitudes and a lengthening of the plant growing season. However, available results are mainly based on the study of wild plants, whereas only a few studies have hinted at an earlier spring onset for agricultural plants. So far, no comprehensive study has compared phenological shifts between agricultural crops, fruit trees and wild plants. We analysed phenological time series of 93 phases in Germany (1951-2004) employing Bayesian nonparametric function estimation, and found that events related to the production of annual crops clearly differ from spring and summer events in wild plants and fruit trees. While non-farmer driven agricultural events and spring and summer growth stages of wild plants and fruit trees advanced (i.e. occurred earlier) by 4.4 to 7.1 d decade(-1), farming indicators, such as sowing and subsequent emergence of spring and winter crops, as well as harvesting, advanced by only 2.1 d decade(-1). The estimated functional behaviour and emergence of discontinuous changes are clearly different between the 2 groups. We conclude that phenological responses to temperature changes are only reflected in data of wild plants, fruit trees and those spring growth stages of winter crops and later growth stages of spring crops which are exclusively triggered by climate, while other changes due to agricultural production are subject to management practice alterations. CR *IPCC, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 CHMIELEWSKI FM, 2004, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V121, P69 DELATORRE C, 2004, JOURNEES MICCES ISLE DOSE V, 2004, GLOBAL CHANGE BIOL, V10, P259 DOSE V, 2006, GLOBAL CHANGE BIOL, V12, P1451 FITTER AH, 2002, SCIENCE, V296, P1689 HILDEN M, 2005, MIMEOGRAPHS FINNISH, V335 KEELING CD, 1996, NATURE, V382, P146 MENZEL A, 1999, NATURE, V397, P659 MENZEL A, 2000, AUSWERTUNG PHANOLOGI MENZEL A, 2003, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V57, P243 MENZEL A, 2006, GLOBAL CHANGE BIOL, V12, P1969 MYNENI RB, 1997, NATURE, V386, P698 PARMESAN C, 2003, NATURE, V421, P37 ROOT TL, 2003, NATURE, V421, P57 SCHNELLE F, 1955, PFLANZEN PHANOLOGIE SPARKS TH, 2002, INT J CLIMATOL, V22, P1715 STUDER S, 2005, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V73, P395 WALTHER GR, 2002, NATURE, V416, P389 ZHOU LM, 2001, J GEOPHYS RES-ATMOS, V106, P20069 NR 20 TC 0 J9 CLIMATE RES BP 201 EP 207 PY 2006 PD OCT 26 VL 32 IS 3 GA 125CQ UT ISI:000243419500004 ER PT J AU Wilbanks, TJ TI Issues in developing a capacity for integrated analysis of mitigation and adaptation SO ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE & POLICY LA English DT Article C1 Oak Ridge Natl Lab, Div Environm Sci, Oak Ridge, TN 37831 USA. RP Wilbanks, TJ, Oak Ridge Natl Lab, Div Environm Sci, POB 2008, Oak Ridge, TN 37831 USA. AB As policymakers and stakeholders increasingly consider relative merits and complementarities of climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies, it is important to improve analytical capacities to support this process. Because a single analytical approach is unlikely to fit all needs, this paper explores potentials for an integrated analytical framework that incorporates both top-down and bottom-up approaches. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *ORNL CUSAT, 2003, POSS VULN COCH IND C DOWLATABADI H, 1993, ENERG POLICY, V21, P209 DOWLATABDI H, 2002, INTEGR ASSESS, V3, P122 HILDEBRAND SG, 1993, ENV ANAL NEPA EXPERI KATES RW, 2001, SCIENCE, V292, P641 ROOT TL, 1995, SCIENCE, V269, P334 SCHNEIDER SH, 2000, PACIFIC ASIAN J ENER, V10, P81 TOTH F, 2001, GUIDANCE PAPERS CROS, P53 WILBANKS TJ, 2002, INTEGRATED ASSESSMEN, V3, P100 WILBANKS TJ, 2003, ENVIRONMENT, V45, P28 WILBANKS TJ, 2003, INTEGRATED ANAL MITI WILBANKS TJ, 2005, BRIDGING SCALES EPIS WILBANKS TJ, 2005, CHALLENGES INTEGRATI NR 13 TC 1 J9 ENVIRON SCI POLICY BP 541 EP 547 PY 2005 VL 8 IS 6 GA 991MD UT ISI:000233817200002 ER PT J AU Munasinghe, M TI Exploring the linkages between climate change and sustainable development: A challenge for transdisciplinary research SO CONSERVATION ECOLOGY LA English DT Editorial Material C1 Munasinghe Inst Dev, MIND, Colombo 5, Sri Lanka. RP Munasinghe, M, Munasinghe Inst Dev, MIND, 10-1 Fonseka Pl, Colombo 5, Sri Lanka. AB In recent years, both sustainable development and climate change have become well known worldwide, and the work of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has also focused on the nexus of these two key topics. The IPCC third assessment report confirms that global mean temperatures will rise 1.5-6 degrees Celsius during the next century. Furthermore, climate change will significantly affect the economic, social, and environmental dimensions of sustainable development, as well as key issues like poverty and equity. Therefore, the IPCC is seeking answers to important questions: how future development patterns will affect climate change; how climate change impacts, adaptation, and mitigation will affect future sustainable development prospects; and how climate change responses might be better integrated into emerging sustainable development strategies. Some key lessons have emerged from these efforts. The IPCC intellectual community has already proved to be quite cohesive and resilient in the face of determined attacks by powerful and well-financed "anti-climate change" lobbies. While addressing sustainable development issues, adaptation and learning within the IPCC have further strengthened the network. First, fresh ideas have been brought in to catalyze change. Transdisciplinary approaches are essential to deal with large-scale, long-term, complex, and interlinked issues like sustainable development and climate change. Second, the disciplinary mix has continued to evolve to meet the challenge. However, crossing disciplinary and cultural boundaries requires sound knowledge of one's own discipline (especially its limitations), open-mindedness, great patience, and sincere effort on all sides. Third, IPCC internal processes have adjusted to facilitate beneficial changes, while limiting harmful dissension. E-mail has proved to be a powerful, but potentially risky tool. How something is said could be as important as what is said, to ensure effective communication. Despite some difficult moments, fair-mindedness and good will have prevailed. The IPCC has been able to accommodate different ways of thinking about the problem, as well as new modes of communication, while reinforcing desirable codes of conduct and behavioral norms. CR GUNDERSON LH, 2002, PANARCHY UNDERSTANDI, V1, P1 HOLLING CS, 1998, CONSERV ECOL, V2, P1 MUNASINGHE M, 1993, ENV EC SUSTAINABLE D MUNASINGHE M, 2000, DEV EQUITY SUSTAINAB MUNASINGHE M, 2001, INT J SUSTAINABLE DE, V4 NR 5 TC 3 J9 CONSERV ECOL BP 1 EP 14 PY 2001 PD JUN VL 5 IS 1 GA 458XV UT ISI:000170221500020 ER PT J AU Lin, ED Xiong, W Ju, H Xu, YL Li, Y Bai, LP Xie, LY TI Climate change impacts on crop yield and quality with CO2 fertilization in China SO PHILOSOPHICAL TRANSACTIONS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY B-BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES LA English DT Article C1 Chinese Acad Agr Sci, Agroenvironm & Sustainable Dev Inst, Beijing 100081, Peoples R China. RP Lin, ED, Chinese Acad Agr Sci, Agroenvironm & Sustainable Dev Inst, Beijing 100081, Peoples R China. AB A regional climate change model (PRECIS) for China, developed by the UK's Hadley Centre, was used to simulate China's climate and to develop climate change scenarios for the country. Results from this project suggest that, depending on the level of future emissions, the average annual temperature increase in China by the end of the twenty-first century may be between 3 and 4 degrees C. Regional crop models were driven by PRECIS output to predict changes in yields of key Chinese food crops: rice, maize and wheat. Modelling suggests that climate change without carbon dioxide (CO2) fertilization could reduce the rice, maize and wheat yields by up to 37% in the next 20-80 years. Interactions of CO2 with limiting factors, especially water and nitrogen, are increasingly well understood and capable of strongly modulating observed growth responses in crops. More complete reporting of free-air carbon enrichment experiments than was possible in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Third Assessment Report confirms that CO2 enrichment under field conditions consistently increases biomass and yields in the range of 5-15%, with CO2 concentration elevated to 550 ppm Levels of CO2 that are elevated to more than 450 ppm will probably cause some deleterious effects in grain quality. It seems likely that the extent of the CO2 fertilization effect will depend upon other factors such as optimum breeding, irrigation and nutrient applications. CR AINSWORTH EA, 2005, NEW PHYTOL, V165, P351 BAI LP, 2004, P WORLD ENG CONV, E, P252 BLANCHE B, 1986, J SCI FOOD AGR, V37, P435 BLUMENTHAL C, 1996, CEREAL CHEM, V73, P762 CAMPBELL CA, 1981, CAN J PLANT SCI, V61, P435 HAKALA K, 1998, EUR J AGRON, V9, P41 HENDREY GR, 1994, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V70, P3 JONES PG, 2003, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V13, P51 JU H, 2005, ACTA AGRONOMIC SINIC, V31, P24 KIMBALL BA, 2001, NEW PHYTOL, V150, P295 MATTHEWS RB, 2000, NUTR CYCL AGROECOSYS, V58, P161 MONJE O, 1998, PLANT CELL ENVIRON, V21, P315 RANDALL PJ, 1990, AUST J AGR RES, V41, P603 RITCHIE JT, 1998, UNDERSTANDING OPTION, P79 ROGERS GS, 1996, AUST J PLANT PHYSIOL, V23, P253 ROSENZWEIG C, 1999, ENVIRON MODEL ASSESS, V4, P115 SHAOBING P, 2003, PLANT PROD SCI, V6, P157 SOUTHWORTH J, 2000, AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON, V82, P139 TANG R, 1998, LIFE SCI, V10, P159 TESTER RF, 1995, J CEREAL SCI, V22, P63 WILLIAMS M, 1995, PLANT CELL ENVIRON, V18, P999 WRIGLEY CW, 1994, AUST J PLANT PHYSIOL, V21, P875 WU YH, 1989, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V49, P9 XIONG W, 2005, CHIN J AGROMETEOROL, V26, P11 YINLONG X, 2004, CHIN J AGROMETEOROL, V25, P5 NR 25 TC 2 J9 PHIL TRANS ROY SOC B-BIOL SCI BP 2149 EP 2154 PY 2005 PD NOV 29 VL 360 IS 1463 GA 986CS UT ISI:000233427400014 ER PT J AU Briceno-Elizondo, E Garcia-Gonzalo, J Peltola, H Matala, J Kellomaki, S TI Sensitivity of growth of Scots pine, Norway spruce and silver birch to climate change and forest management in boreal conditions SO FOREST ECOLOGY AND MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article C1 Univ Joensuu, Fac Forestry, FI-80101 Joensuu, Finland. RP Kellomaki, S, Univ Joensuu, Fac Forestry, POB 111, FI-80101 Joensuu, Finland. AB An assessment is made on how climate change and thinning may affect the total stem wood growth of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris), Norway spruce (Picea abies) and silver birch (Betula pendula), and the resulting effects on the total timber yield and the consequent distribution of timber between pulp wood and saw logs. A process-based model used in the study links the flows of carbon, energy, nitrogen and water in trees and soils as affecting the physiological and ecological performance of trees under the control of climatic and edaphic factors and management. The simulations represent the boreal forest in Southern and Northern Finland. Under thinning, the climate change increased the growth of Scots pine up to 28% in the south and up to 54% in the north, whereas the increase for Norway spruce was up to 24% in the south and 40% in the north. The response of silver birch was smaller than that of conifers; i.e. growth increased by 21% in the south and 34% in the north. The enhanced growth implied an increase in the timber yield regardless of tree species and site. The increase for Scots pine was up to 26% in the south and 50% in the north. For Norway spruce, the increase was somewhat smaller, up to 23% in the south and up to 40% in the north. For silver birch, the increase was the smallest, up to 20%,in the south and up to 33% in the north. The thinning regime had, however, a clear effect on total growth and timber yield. Any thinning regime increasing the mean stocking over the rotation increased the total growth and timber yield regardless of the tree species and site. An adaptation of the current management rules might be needed in order to exploit the benefits that climate change seems to provide in the form of increased growth and timber yield in the boreal conditions. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. CR BERNINGER F, 2004, TREE PHYSIOL, V24, P193 CHERTOV OG, 1997, ECOL MODEL, V94, P177 FARQUHAR GD, 1980, PLANTA, V149, P67 GOUGH CM, 2004, FOREST SCI, V50, P1 HANNINEN H, 2002, FOREST ECOL MANAG, V169, P53 HOUGHTON JT, 1992, CLIMATE CHANGE 1992 HUSTISCH I, 1948, ACTA BOT FENN, V42, P1 HYNYNEN J, 1993, SCAND J FOR RES, V8, P326 HYNYNEN J, 2002, 8356 METLA, P1 KARJALAINEN T, 1996, FOREST ECOL MANAG, V80, P113 KELLOMAKI S, 1993, FOREST ECOL MANAG, V59, P237 KELLOMAKI S, 1995, CAN J FOREST RES, V25, P929 KELLOMAKI S, 1996, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V32, P423 KELLOMAKI S, 1997, ECOL MODEL, V97, P121 KELLOMAKI S, 1997, FOREST ECOL MANAG, V94, P195 KELLOMAKI S, 1997, FOREST ECOL MANAG, V99, P309 KELLOMAKI S, 2000, PHOTOSYNTHETICA, V38, P69 KELLOMAKI S, 2001, ATMOS ENVIRON, V35, P1491 KIRSCHBAUM MUF, 1995, SOIL BIOL BIOCHEM, V27, P753 KOIVISTO P, 1962, COMMUN I FOREST FENN, V65, P1 KRAMER K, 2002, GLOBAL CHANGE BIOL, V8, P1 LASCH P, 2002, FOREST ECOL MANAG, V162, P73 LASCH P, 2005, FOREST ECOL MANAG, V207, P59 LAUREN A, 2005, HYDROL EARTH SYST SC, V9, P657 LINDER S, 1984, NUTR PLANTATION FORE, P211 LINDNER M, 2000, TREE PHYSIOL, V20, P299 LLOYD J, 1994, FUNCT ECOL, V8, P315 MAKELA A, 2000, TREE PHYSIOL, V20, P347 MAKINEN H, 2004, FOREST ECOL MANAG, V201, P311 MAKINEN H, 2004, FOREST ECOL MANAG, V203, P21 MATALA J, 2003, ECOL MODEL, V161, P95 MELILLO JM, 1993, NATURE, V363, P234 OKERBLOM P, 1989, ECOL MODEL, V49, P73 PELKONEN P, 1980, FLORA, V169, P398 PENG P, 2002, ECOL MODEL, P177 PUSSINEN A, 2002, FOREST ECOL MANAG, V158, P103 REICH JW, 1992, TELLUS B, V44, P81 ROBERNTZ P, 1998, TREE PHYSIOL, V18, P233 SABATE S, 2002, FOREST ECOL MANAG, V162, P23 SPITTLEHOUSE DL, 2003, BC J ECOSYSTEMS MANA, V4, P1 STRANDMAN H, 1993, ECOL MODEL, V70, P195 TALKKARI A, 1996, FOREST ECOL MANAG, V83, P217 TALKKARI A, 1996, SILVA FENNICA, V30, P247 TALKKARI A, 1998, FOREST ECOL MANAG, V106, P97 THORNLEY JHM, 2000, TREE PHYSIOL, V20, P477 VAISANEN H, 1994, TREE PHYSIOL, V14, P1081 VENALAINEN A, 2001, CLIMATE RES, V17, P63 VONCAEMMERER S, 1981, PLANTA, V153, P376 VRJOLA T, 2002, EFI INT REP, V11, P1 WANG LD, 1996, CHINA NATL J NEW GAS, V2, P82 NR 50 TC 0 J9 FOREST ECOL MANAGE BP 152 EP 167 PY 2006 PD AUG 15 VL 232 IS 1-3 GA 075DV UT ISI:000239864300017 ER PT J AU Blockley, SPE Blockley, SM Donahue, RE Lane, CS Lowe, JJ Pollard, AM TI The chronology of abrupt climate change and Late Upper Palaeolithic human adaptation in Europe SO JOURNAL OF QUATERNARY SCIENCE LA English DT Article C1 Univ Oxford, Archaeol & Hist Art Res Lab, Oxford OX1 3QY, England. Univ Bradford, Dept Archaeol Sci, Bradford BD7 1DP, W Yorkshire, England. Royal Holloway Univ London, Dept Geog, Egham TW20 0EX, Surrey, England. RP Blockley, SPE, Univ Oxford, Archaeol & Hist Art Res Lab, Dyson Perrins Bldg,S Parks Rd, Oxford OX1 3QY, England. AB This paper addresses the possible connections between the onset of human expansion in Europe following the Last Glacial Maximum, and the timing of abrupt climate warming at the onset of the Lateglacial (Bolling/Allerod) Interstadial. There are opposing views as to whether or not human populations and activities were directly 'forced' by climate change, based on different comparisons between archaeological and environmental data. We review the geochronological assumptions and approaches on which data comparisons have been attempted in the past, and argue that the uncertainties presently associated with age models based on calibrated radiocarbon dates preclude robust testing of the competing models, particularly when comparing the data to non-radiocarbon-based timescales such as the Greenland ice core records. The paper concludes with some suggestions as to the steps that will be necessary if more robust tests of the models are to be developed in the future. Copyright (C) 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 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KM539 UT ISI:A1980KM53900021 ER PT J AU ROSENBERG, NJ CROSSON, PR TI THE MINK PROJECT - A NEW METHODOLOGY FOR IDENTIFYING REGIONAL INFLUENCES OF, AND RESPONSES TO, INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC CO2 AND CLIMATE CHANGE SO ENVIRONMENTAL CONSERVATION LA English DT Article RP ROSENBERG, NJ, ENERGY & NAT RESOURCES DIV,CLIMATE RESOURCES PROGRAM,1616 P ST NW,WASHINGTON,DC 20036. AB In a study that was recently completed at Resources for the Future, the impacts of a future change in climate on the total economy of the Missouri-Iowa-Nebraska-Kansas (MINK) region were assessed, as were the possibilities of response (including adaptation) to the climatic change. Impacts on agriculture, forestry, water resources, and energy, were emphasized. The study was future-oriented, focusing on the year 2030, by which time the effects of 'greenhouse' warming may be felt. The records of the AD 1930s were used to provide an analog of the kinds of climate change (warmer and drier) that climate models predict will occur in the MINK region. Our results indicate that impacts of the projected climate change on agriculture, at least in the future, are expected to be profound, but that likely-to-be available technologies should facilitate substantial adaptation; that current water-resource limitations in the region would be exacerbated and lead to an eastward shift in irrigation; that impacts on forestry would be severe, and that opportunities for forestry adaptation would be very limited unless biomass production were to become economically viable; and that the net impacts on energy supply and demand would be small and adaptation to them relatively simple. Climate change in the MINK region could, of course, go somewhat beyond the conditions represented by the AD 1930s analog, in which case the findings of this study may be too optimistic. However, the future-oriented 'MINK methodology' is not scenario-dependent, and can be used to test other, more severe (or benign), scenarios as well. Further, the capacity for adaptation to climate change demonstrated in this study, may remain applicable even in more stringent circumstances. CR 1990, IPCC SCI ASSESSMENT 1990, REGIONAL PROJECTIONS, V1 ALWARD GS, 1986, IMPLAN VERSION 2 0 M ALWARD GS, 1989, MICRO IMPLAN METHODS CROSSON PR, 1989, LONG TERM ADEQUACY A GATES WL, 1985, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V7, P267 MANABE S, 1986, SCIENCE, V232, P626 MAVET EF, 1978, DEC C DROUGHT MAN MA PARRY ML, 1988, IMPACT CLIMATIC VARI, V1, R12 PERLACK RD, 1987, J ENERG ENG-ASCE, V113, P92 ROSENBERG NJ, 1990, CLIMATE CHANGE US WA, P151 SCOTT MJ, 1990, INFORMAL C REP INT W SMITH JB, 1989, EPA2300589053 OFF PO SOLOMON AM, 1986, OECOLOGIA, V68, P567 STOCKLE CO, 1992, IN PRESS AGR SYSTEMS WILLIAMS JR, 1984, T ASAE, V27, P129 NR 16 TC 6 J9 ENVIRON CONSERV BP 313 EP 322 PY 1991 PD WIN VL 18 IS 4 GA HP365 UT ISI:A1991HP36500008 ER PT J AU WATTS, MJ TI THE GEOGRAPHY OF POSTCOLONIAL AFRICA - SPACE, PLACE AND DEVELOPMENT IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA (1960-93) SO SINGAPORE JOURNAL OF TROPICAL GEOGRAPHY LA English DT Review RP WATTS, MJ, UNIV CALIF BERKELEY,BERKELEY,CA 94720. AB This overview of human geographic studies of sub-Saharan Africa begins with the contributions made by West European geographers to the colonial service, and the growing interest in post-war 'development' and to the anti-imperial movements in the late colonial period (1945-60). The paper provides an intellectual map of the contributions by European and African geographers to the broad array of development problems which emerged after 1960. North American geographers made significant contributions to the debate somewhat later, particularly in association with the growing involvement of U.S. development agencies in the 1970s. Particular emphasis is given to geographic studies in fields such as agrarian change, ecological degradation, industrialization, human mobility and patterns of urbanization and settlement. 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CRISIS CAUSES TOMLINSON R, 1987, REGIONAL RESTRUCTURI TOYE J, 1987, DILEMMAS DEV TURNER B, 1977, THESIS U LONDON TURNER M, 1992, THESIS U CALIFORNIA VENNETIER P, 1972, 10 ETUDES APPROVISIO VENNETIER P, 1977, NOUVELLES RECHERCHES VENNETIER P, 1989, PERIURBANISATION PAY WATTS MJ, 1983, SILENT VIOLENCE FOOD WATTS MJ, 1987, DROUGHT HUNGER AFRIC, P171 WATTS MJ, 1991, TRANSITIONS, V15, P125 WATTS MJ, 1989, PROG HUM GEOG, V13, P1 WATTS MJ, 1993, PROG HUM GEOG, V17, P257 WEINER D, 1985, J MOD AFR STUD, V23, P251 WEINER D, 1988, DEV CHANGE, V20, P401 WERBNER RP, 1990, LOCALIZING STRATEGIE, P152 WESTERN D, 1981, OUTCAST CAPE TOWN WHEATLEY P, 1972, PIVOT 4 QUARTERS PRE WISNER B, 1976, 30 I BEH SCI WORK PA WISNER B, 1977, LANDUSE DEV, P194 WISNER B, 1988, POWER NEED AFRICA NR 153 TC 2 J9 SING J TROP GEOGR BP 173 EP 190 PY 1993 PD DEC VL 14 IS 2 GA NJ227 UT ISI:A1993NJ22700006 ER PT J AU Grothmann, T Reusswig, F TI People at risk of flooding: Why some residents take precautionary action while others do not SO NATURAL HAZARDS LA English DT Article C1 Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res, Dept Global Change & Social Syst, D-14412 Potsdam, Germany. RP Grothmann, T, Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res, Dept Global Change & Social Syst, 60 12 03, D-14412 Potsdam, Germany. AB Self-protective behavior by residents of flood-prone urban areas can reduce monetary flood damage by 80%, and reduce the need for public risk management. But, research on the determinants of private households' prevention of damage by natural hazards is rare, especially in Germany. To answer the question of why some people take precautionary action while others do not, a socio-psychological model based on Protection Motivation Theory (PMT) is developed, explaining private precautionary damage prevention by residents' perceptions of previous flood experience, risk of future floods, reliability of public flood protection, the efficacy and costs of self-protective behavior, their perceived ability to perform these actions, and non-protective responses like wishful thinking. The validity of the proposed model is explored by means of representative quantitative telephone surveys and regression analyses, and compared with a socio-economic model (including residents' age, gender, income, school degree and being owner or tenant). Participants were 157 residents of flood-prone homes in Cologne, Germany, a city that has traditionally been subject to minor and major flood events. Results of the study show the explanatory power of the socio-psychological model, with important implications for public risk communication efforts. To motivate residents in flood-prone areas to take their share in damage prevention, it is essential to communicate not only the risk of flooding and its potential consequences, but also the possibility, effectiveness and cost of private precautionary measures. 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Knowledge and experience of adapting to climatic conditions has been built up over a millennia by communities in many parts of the world, including developing countries, often on the basis of experimentation initiated by communities. The synthesis brings together the main insights and conclusions from case studies describing examples of successful community-led interventions in six countries: China, India, Bangladesh, Senegal, Kenya and Zimbabwe. The climate impacts studied include "headline-grabbing" extreme events, such as national floods, and quieter forms of climatic disaster such as long-term aridity/drought, temperature increase and wind-related land degradation. The synthesis examines the roles played by formal and informal institutions, policy champions, donors, knowledge and research in decreasing vulnerabilities and supporting community-led adaptation to climate change. CR *CRS ODI ICRISAT, 2002, SEED VOUCH FAIRS MAN *IPCC, 2001, 3 IPCC NR 2 TC 0 J9 IDS BULL-INST DEVELOP STUD BP 117 EP + PY 2005 PD OCT VL 36 IS 4 GA 989QD UT ISI:000233687900009 ER PT J AU Yamin, F Rahman, A Huq, S TI Vulnerability, adaptation and climate disasters: A conceptual overview SO IDS BULLETIN-INSTITUTE OF DEVELOPMENT STUDIES LA English DT Article AB The articles in this IDS Bulletin present insights from the Linking Climate Adaptation (LCA) Project that aimed to ensure that poor people benefit from adaptation processes, rather than bearing greater burdens by, for example, having the risks caused by climate change shifted in their direction. The key research aim of the LCA Project was to determine what kind of procedural and institutional frameworks are needed to ensure that locally determined adaptation needs are linked "upwards" to national and international policy and institutional structures. The overview brings together policy relevant insights on this question whilst also explaining the conceptual underpinnings of the project, focusing on the nature of vulnerability and adaptation and policy processes to support community-led adaptation. The key conclusions are that climate change is a serious, ongoing threat to development and will add burdens to those who are already poor and vulnerable, and that climate vulnerability analysis should be incorporated systematically into the three main policy and institutional frameworks relevant for adaptation: development, disaster relief and climate change. Ways of fostering conceptual, operational and institutional linkages between these three domains are described, focusing on how these can help communities take centre stage in conducting vulnerability analysis and implementation to enhance their long-term capacities for adaptation. CR *ACTIONAID, 2005, PART VULN AN STEP ST *BCAS, 2005, REP COMM LEV AD *DFID, 2005, DIS RISK RED DEV CON *IDS, 2005, IDS B, V36 *IISD, 2003, LIV CLIM CHANG COMB *IPCC, 2001, 3 IPCC *IPCC, 2001, SYNTH REP 3 ASS REP *UNDP, 2005, AD POL FRAM CLIM CHA ALLOT P, 1990, EUNOMIA NEW ORDER NE ALLOT P, 2002, HLTH NATIONS SOC LAW ARCHARYA A, 2004, 21 IDS BARRETT C, 2004, POVERTY TRAPS SAFETY BARROW CJ, 2003, ENV CHANGE HUMAN DEV BOJO J, 2002, POVERTY REDUCTION ST BRAITHWAITE J, 2000, GLOBAL BUSINESS REGU BROOKS N, 2004, NEW INDICATORS VULNE BURTON I, 2004, LOOK LEAP RISK MANAG CALLON M, 1989, KNOWLEDGE SOC, V8, P57 CANNON T, 2004, SOCIAL VULNERABILITY CARNEY D, 1999, LIVELIHOOD APPROACHE CARNEY D, 2002, SUSTAINABLE LIVELIHO CHAMBERS R, 1989, IDS B, V20, P1 CHAMBERS R, 2005, IDEAS DEV COOPER F, 1997, INTRO INT CORNWALL A, 2004, IDS B, V35 DEVEREUX S, 2004, 232 IDS DOYAL L, 1991, THEORY HUMAN NEEDS EASTERLING G, 2004, PEW PAPER EYBEN R, 2003, 17 IDS FUSSEL H, 2002, UNDP EXP GROUP M INT GRUBB M, 2001, INT AFFAIRS, V2 HAIN P, 2001, REDEFINING FOREIGN P HAQ M, 1995, REFLECTIONS HUMAN DE HARCOURT W, 2002, DEVELOPMENT, V45, P7 HULME D, 2005, IDENTIFYING UNDERSTA HUQ S, 2003, MAINSTREAMING ADAPTA KANIE N, 2004, EMERGING FORCES ENV KEELEY J, 2003, UNDERSTANDING ENV PO KJELLEN J, 2004, IDS B, V35 LATOUR B, 1994, SCI ACTION FOLLOW SC LEACH M, 1997, IDS BULL-I DEV STUD, V28, P4 MAXWELL S, 1994, IDS B, V25 MEHTA L, 2001, IDS B, V32 MOENCH M, 2004, ADAPTIVE CAPACITY LI MUNTON R, 2003, NEGOTIATING ENV CHAN NUSSBAUM M, 2000, WOMEN HUMAN DEV CAPA NYAMUMUSEMBI C, 2004, 234 IDS OBRIEN KL, 2004, CICERO WORKING PAPER PIMBERT M, 2004, PARTICIPATORY LEARNI, V50 REUSSMIT C, 2004, POLITICS INT LAW SCHOON M, 2005, W054 IND U WORKSH PO SCOONES I, 1998, 72 IDS SEN AK, 1999, DEV FREEDOM SIMMS A, 2005, AFRICA SMOKE SPERLING F, 2003, POVERTY CLIMATE CHAN SPERLING F, 2005, WORLD C DIS RED BEH STEINS N, 2001, IDS B, V32 STIRLING A, 2003, NEGOTIATING ENV CHAN TEARFUND, 2005, IN PRESS MAINSTREAMI TWIGG J, 2001, SUSTAINABLE LIVELIHO VENEKLASEN L, 2004, 235 IDS WISNER B, 2004, RISK NATURAL HAZARDS YAMIN F, 2004, IDS BULL-I DEV STUD, V35, P1 YAMIN F, 2004, INT CLIMATE CHANGE R, CH19 YAMIN F, 2005, CLIMATE POL, V5, P349 NR 65 TC 0 J9 IDS BULL-INST DEVELOP STUD BP 1 EP + PY 2005 PD OCT VL 36 IS 4 GA 989QD UT ISI:000233687900002 ER PT J AU KOLB, MJ TI RITUAL ACTIVITY AND CHIEFLY ECONOMY AT AN UPLAND RELIGIOUS SITE ON MAUI, HAWAII SO JOURNAL OF FIELD ARCHAEOLOGY LA English DT Article RP KOLB, MJ, STATE HISTOR PRESERVAT DIV,DEPT LAND & NAT RESOURCES,POB 621,HONOLULU,HI 96809. AB This report describes Molohai heiau, a Hawaiian upland religious site, within the context of human ritual activity and chiefly productive economy. Molohai represents a series of occupational episodes that date between A.C. 1057 and 1920. The site contains an unusual sequence of faunal material, where domestic pig replaced wild birds and fish as a chiefly commodity, sacrificial offering, or feasting food. The ritual connotation of these offerings is also linked to the upland productive economy and chiefly surplus of foodstuffs. Molohai is also notable because it definitively links the role of human predation in the extirpation of terrestrial avifauna. Most interesting is that certain forest-adapted bird species were hunted, perhaps for their feathers or meat, and became extinct between A.C. 1057 and 1440. This suggests that status differentiation was occurring relatively early in the scope of Hawaiian culture, and that deforestation and upland agricultural intensification occurred relatively late in the human occupational sequence of Hawai'i. Unfortunately, such cumulative environmental effects precipitated serious and irreversible changes in terrestrial bird life. 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ENEA, I-00060 Rome, Italy. ICRAM, I-30015 Venice, Italy. RP Brando, VE, CSIRO Land & Water, GPO Box 1666, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia. AB Comparative analysis of trophic networks was carried out to evaluate environmental management actions aimed at countering an environmental crisis in Orbetello Lagoon, Italy. Two mass-balance models of this shallow water coastal system were constructed, for 1995 and 1996. During this period, there was an observed change in the composition of the submerged vegetation that indicated a significant improvement in the lagoon's ecology. Mass-balance models were built using the Ecopath modelling software in order to explain the energy transfer through the trophic levels (TLs) of the lagoon's ecosystem. Comparative analysis of the two trophic networks allowed a complete description of the lagoon, and gave clear indications regarding the 'eutrophication level' sensu Nixon and the stage of system maturity sensu Odum of the ecosystem for the 2 years. The turnover rate (production/biomass ratio) of pleustophytes was proposed as an indicator of "environmental health" at the ecosystem level because it allows positioning the submerged vegetation as a whole along an axis of adaptation strategies to natural selection. All the indices of ecosystem maturity and stability examined showed that the lagoon was in a more stable condition in 1996 than in 1995, although the system was still in a condition of stress. The effects of management actions carried out in the system were quantified by estimating the changes in primary production and accumulation of detritus in the system. Management of the lagoon as an extensive aquaculture operation was assessed by analysing the fishery catch, the transfer efficiencies at different trophic levels and the impact of cormorants, and it was found to contribute to system stability. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 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Lund Univ, Dept Environm & Energy Syst Studies, S-22362 Lund, Sweden. RP Neij, L, Lund Univ, Int Inst Ind Environm Econ, POB 196, S-22100 Lund, Sweden. AB The aim of this paper is to propose a framework for the evaluation of policy instruments designed to affect development and dissemination of new energy technologies. The evaluation approach is based on the analysis of selected outcome indicators describing the process of technical change, i.e. the development and dissemination of new energy technologies, on the basis of a socio-technical systems approach. The outcome indicators are used to analyse the effect, in terms of outcome, and outcome scope of the policy instruments as well as the extent to which the policy instruments support diversity, learning and institutional change. The analysis of two cases of evaluations, of energy efficiency policy and wind energy policy in Sweden, shows that the approach has several advantages, allowing continuous evaluation and providing important information for the redesign of policy instruments. There are also disadvantages associated with the approach, such as complexity, possible high cost and the requirement of qualified evaluators. Nevertheless, it is concluded that the information on the continuous performance of different policy instruments and their effects on the introduction and dissemination of new energy technologies, provided by this evaluation approach, is essential for an improved adaptation and implementation of energy and climate policy. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 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Univ Washington, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Seattle, WA 98195 USA. RP Barnett, TP, Univ Calif San Diego, Scripps Inst Oceanog, Div Climate Res, La Jolla, CA 92093 USA. AB All currently available climate models predict a near-surface warming trend under the influence of rising levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. In addition to the direct effects on climate-for example, on the frequency of heatwaves-this increase in surface temperatures has important consequences for the hydrological cycle, particularly in regions where water supply is currently dominated by melting snow or ice. In a warmer world, less winter precipitation falls as snow and the melting of winter snow occurs earlier in spring. Even without any changes in precipitation intensity, both of these effects lead to a shift in peak river runoff to winter and early spring, away from summer and autumn when demand is highest. Where storage capacities are not sufficient, much of the winter runoff will immediately be lost to the oceans. With more than one-sixth of the Earth's population relying on glaciers and seasonal snow packs for their water supply, the consequences of these hydrological changes for future water availability-predicted with high confidence and already diagnosed in some regions-are likely to be severe. 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AB Drought is an ancient natural hazard that has probably killed more people than any other. It is difficult to mark the start and end of drought because the moisture deficit develops slowly over weeks, months, or years. Atmospheric scientists can neither forecast nor control drought. Drought mitigation must focus on reducing the underlying physical and social vulnerability. Short-term adjustments do not yield a lasting adaptation to drought. Some argue that repetitive food aid may worsen long-term food-production problems and land degradation by deferring more fundamental adjustments. Decisionmakers need better information and a broader range of adjustment options in order to reduce drought vulnerability. A linking of global warming/climate change studies with drought studies can yield insights into how societies might deal with climate change and help define the potential for future drought. (Ed.) 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Univ Edinburgh, Sch Geosci, Edinburgh EH8 9YL, Midlothian, Scotland. Univ Oxford, Sch Geog & Environm, Oxford OX1 2JD, England. World Agroforestry Ctr, Alternat Slash & Burn Programme, Nairobi, Kenya. Univ Southampton, Dept Geog, Southampton SO9 5NH, Hants, England. RP Moran, D, Scottish Agr Coll, Kings Bldg,W Main Rd, Edinburgh EH9 3JG, Midlothian, Scotland. AB This study quantifies the economic costs of climate change impacts on protected areas in Africa. Downscaled results from four Global Circulation Models (GCMs) are used to classify different ecosystems in accordance with the Holdridge Life Zone (HLZ) system. A benefits transfer approach is then used to place an economic value on the predicted ecosystem shifts resulting from climate change in protected areas. The results provide approximations for the impacts on biodiversity in Africa under the "business-as-usual" scenario established by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) for the middle and end of the 21st century. The geographical analysis shows that there are twenty HLZs in Africa and all of them are represented in the protected area network. Three of these HLZs do not change in extent as a result of climate change. Assuming initially that the willingness to pay (WTP) values and the preferences for different ecosystem services remain constant, three of the GCM models show an (undiscounted) negative economic impact of climate change for protected areas in Africa for the year 2100. The worst-case damage scenario totals USD 74.5 million by 2100. However, the model for the year 2065 shows a higher undiscounted value than the present. The finding of positive net impacts from warming is consistent with the predictions of other macro models that show potential gains from warming scenarios. (c) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 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RP Barnett, J, Univ Canterbury, Christchurch 1, New Zealand. AB This paper investigates the problem of scientific uncertainty and the way it impedes planning for climate change and accelerated sea-level rise (CC & ASLR) in Pacific Island Countries (PICs). The paper begins by discussing the problems CC & ASLR poses for PICs, and it explores the limitations of the dominant approach to vulnerability and adaptation. Next, the paper considers the way scientific uncertainty problematizes policies aimed at adaptation to CC & ASLR. It argues that the prevailing approach, which requires anticipation of impacts, is unsuccessful, and the paper proposes a complementary strategy aimed to enhance the resilience of whole island social-ecological systems. Recent developments in the theory and practice of resilience are discussed and then applied to formulate goals for adaptation policy in PICs. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. 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AB Technology transfer requires long-term and wide-ranging investment beyond information sharing and training. Transfer is concerned with adapting technology to given socioeconomic and technical environments but it is also the development of suitable mechanisms within the destination environment. Risk sharing and institutional development are required to achieve sustainable transfer. Micro-hydro technology in Nepal is an example of successful technology transfer over 20 years of in-country adaptation, promotion and training by international and Nepali technical, financial and development institutions. The successes and disappointments of the sector provide useful lessons for technology transfer programs. The paper arises from original research, personal experience of Nepal's micro-hydro sector and a review of associated literature. 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RP McLeman, R, Univ Guelph, Dept Geog, Guelph, ON N1G 2W1, Canada. AB This article presents a conceptual model to investigate population migration as a possible adaptive response to risks associated with climate change. The model reflects established theories of human migration behaviour, and is based upon the concepts of vulnerability, exposure to risk and adaptive capacity, as developed in the climate change research community. The application of the model is illustrated using the case of 1930s migration patterns in rural Eastern Oklahoma, which took place during a period of repeated crop failures due to drought and flooding. 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RP Geertz, C, Inst Adv Study, Einstein Dr, Princeton, NJ 08540 USA. AB I give an overall view of anthropology and of my career within it over the past fifty years, relating them to changes in the world in general during that time. All lessons are implicit, all morals unstated, all conclusions undrawn. 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D, 1983, SPOKEN WORD WORK INT TOLMAN EC, 1958, ESSAYS MOTIVATION LE TRAWEEK S, 1988, BEAMTIMES LIFETIMES TURNER VW, 1957, SCHISM CONTINUITY AF TURNER VW, 1986, ANTHR EXPERIENCE TYLER SA, 1969, COGNITIVE ANTHR READ VOGT EZ, 1955, MODERN HOMESTEADERS VOGT EZ, 1966, PEOPLE RIMROCK STUDY WALLACE AFC, 1970, CULTURE PERSONALITY WEBER M, 1947, THEORY SOCIAL EC ORG WEBER M, 1950, GEN EC HIST WEBER M, 1950, PROTESTANT ETHIC SPI WEBER M, 1965, SOCIOLOGY RELIG WEINER AB, 1976, WOMEN VALUE MEN RENO WHITING BB, 1975, CHILDREN 6 CULTURES WIENER N, 1962, CYBERNETICS CONTROL WOLF ER, 1982, EUROPE PEOPLE HIST WRIGHT R, 1995, COLOR CURTAIN REPORT NR 152 TC 1 J9 ANNU REV ANTHROPOL BP 1 EP 19 PY 2002 VL 31 GA 612BN UT ISI:000179053900002 ER PT J AU Dyson, T TI On development, demography and climate change: The end of the world as we know it? SO POPULATION AND ENVIRONMENT LA English DT Article C1 Univ London London Sch Econ & Polit Sci, Inst Dev Studies, London WC2A 2AE, England. RP Dyson, T, Univ London London Sch Econ & Polit Sci, Inst Dev Studies, Houghton St, London WC2A 2AE, England. AB This paper comments on the issue of global warming and climate change, in an attempt to provide fresh perspective. Essentially, five main arguments are made. First, that the process of modern economic development has been based on the burning of fossil fuels, and that this will continue to apply for the foreseeable future. Second, that in large part due to momentum in economic and demographic processes, it is inevitable that there will be a major rise in atmospheric CO2 during the present century. Third, that available data on global temperatures suggest strongly that the coming warming will be appreciably faster than anything that humanity has experienced during historical times. Moreover, especially in a system that is being forced, the chance of an abrupt change in climate happening must be rated as fair. Fourth, that while it is impossible to attach precise probabilities to different scenarios, the range of plausible unpleasant climate outcomes seems at least as great as the range of more manageable ones. The consequences of future climate change may be considerable; indeed, they could be almost inconceivable-with several negative changes occurring simultaneously and to cumulative adverse effect. There is an urgent need to improve ways of thinking about what could happen. Fifth, the paper maintains that the human response to other difficult 'long' threats-such as that posed by HIV/AIDS-reveals a broadly analogous sequence of social reactions (e.g. denial, avoidance, recrimination) to that which is unfolding with respect to carbon emissions and climate change. Therefore the view expressed here is that major behavioral change to limit world carbon emissions is unlikely in the foreseeable future, and that the broad sway of future events is probably now set to run its course. 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AB Global change has been in the public arena for some time and in the scientific arena for even longer. At the forefront of these public and scientific deliberations are issues of energy, transportation, and industry. However, the potential effects on food and fiber security are likely to be the greatest threat from global change. Fortunately, the human component inherent in agriculture and forestry production systems allows for planning of effective, cost-efficient mitigative and adaptive strategies that will help meet the challenge. CR 1 OFF SCI TECHN POL 1991, COMPREHENSIVE APPROA, P1 NR 2 TC 0 J9 MAR TECHNOL SOC J BP 30 EP 37 PY 1991 PD WIN VL 25 IS 4 GA HG985 UT ISI:A1991HG98500005 ER PT J AU Owuor, B Eriksen, S Mauta, W TI Adapting to climate change in a dryland mountain environment in Kenya SO MOUNTAIN RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT LA English DT Article C1 Kenya Forestry Res Inst, Nairobi, Kenya. Univ Oslo, Dept Sociol & Human Geog, N-0317 Oslo, Norway. RP Owuor, B, Kenya Forestry Res Inst, POB 20412,00200 City Sq, Nairobi, Kenya. AB Global warming is likely to lead to a variety of changes in local climatic conditions, including potential increases in the frequency and intensity of extreme climatic events such as drought, floods, and storms. Present capacity to respond to and manage climatic variability, including extreme events, is an important component of adjustments to climatic changes. In particular, identifying and addressing constraints on local adaptation mechanisms-whether political, economic or social in nature-is critical to developing effective adaptation policies. The drylands of Kenya present great survival challenges to the people living in these areas. The hilltops in the drylands provide favorable climate and resources for adapting to climate change. The present paper examines the role that one particular hilltop, Endau in Kitui District, eastern Kenya, plays in processes of local adaptation to climatic variability and drought. The project presented here investigated how conflict and exclusion from key hilltop resources constrain adaptation among the population groups living around the hilltop, and how these constraints are negotiated, addressed, or even exacerbated through institutional arrangements and development activities. CR BURTON I, 2002, CLIM POLICY, V2, P145 GACHATHL FNM, 1996, BIODIVERSITY AFRICAN, P313 JOUBERT AM, 1997, PROG PHYS GEOG, V21, P51 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 NR 4 TC 0 J9 MT RES DEV BP 310 EP 315 PY 2005 PD NOV VL 25 IS 4 GA 997GB UT ISI:000234232200004 ER PT J AU MALINA, RM TI COMPUTER-APPLICATIONS IN HUMAN BIOLOGY SO AMERICAN JOURNAL OF HUMAN BIOLOGY LA English DT Editorial Material NR 0 TC 0 J9 AMER J HUM BIOL BP U285 EP U285 PY 1992 VL 4 IS 3 GA HV909 UT ISI:A1992HV90900001 ER PT J AU Huq, S Reid, H Konate, M Rahman, A Sokona, Y Crick, F TI Mainstreaming adaptation to climate change in Least Developed Countries (LDCs) SO CLIMATE POLICY LA English DT Article C1 IIED, Climate Change Program, London WC1H 0DD, England. BCAS, Dhaka 1212, Bangladesh. OSS, BP-1080 Tunis, Tunisia. Univ Sheffield, Dept Geog, Sheffield S10 2TN, S Yorkshire, England. RP Huq, S, IIED, Climate Change Program, 3 Endsleigh St, London WC1H 0DD, England. AB The Least Developed Countries (LDCs) are a group of 49 of the world's poorest countries. They have contributed least to the emission of greenhouse gases (GHGs) but they are most vulnerable to the effects of climate change. This is due to their location in some of the most vulnerable regions of the world and their low capacities to adapt to these changes. Adaptation to climate change has become an important policy priority in the international negotiations on climate change in recent years. However, it has yet to become a major policy issue within developing countries, especially the LDCs. This article focuses on two LDCs, namely Bangladesh and Mali, where progress has been made regarding identifying potential adaptation options. For example, Bangladesh already has effective disaster response systems, and strategies to deal with reduced freshwater availability, and Mali has a well-developed programme for providing agro-hydro-meteorological assistance to communities in times of drought. However, much remains to be done in terms of mainstreaming adaptation to climate change within the national policyrnaking processes of these countries. Policymakers need targeting and, to facilitate this, scientific research must be translated into appropriate language and timescales. CR WATSON RT, 1998, REGIONAL IMPACTS CLI, V1, P1 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 *SMRC, 2000, VULN ASS SAARC COAST *UN, 1992, UN FRAM CONV CLIM CH *UN, 2001, MARR ACC *UN, 2001, STAT PROF LDCS *UNCTAD, 2000, LEAST DEV COUNTR 200 *UNCTAD, 2001, 3 UN C LDCS BRUSS 13 *UNCTAD, 2001, FDI LEAST DEV COUNTR ABRAMOVITZ J, 2002, ADAPTING CLIMATE CHA ADGER WN, 2003, PROGR DEV STUDIES, V3, P179 APUULI B, 2000, ENVIRON MONIT ASSESS, V61, P145 DESSAI S, 2002, 5 TYND CTR CLIM CHAN HABIBULLAH M, 1998, VULNERABILITY ADAPTA, P55 HUQ S, 2003, MAINSTREAMING ADAPTA KONATE M, 2001, B AFRICAIN BIORESSOU, V14 KONATE M, 2003, 3 MAL COUNTR CAS STU MAGADZA CHD, 2000, ENVIRON MONIT ASSESS, V61, P193 PIELKE RA, 1998, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V8, P159 RAHMAN A, 2003, 2 BANGL COUNTR CAS S SOKONA Y, 2001, CLIM POLICY, V1, P117 NR 21 TC 0 J9 CLIM POLICY BP 25 EP 43 PY 2004 VL 4 IS 1 GA 892TJ UT ISI:000226672600004 ER PT J AU Droogers, P TI Adaptation to climate change to enhance food security and preserve environmental quality: example for southern Sri Lanka SO AGRICULTURAL WATER MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article C1 FutureWater, NL-6823 DH Arnhem, Netherlands. RP Droogers, P, FutureWater, Eksterstr 7, NL-6823 DH Arnhem, Netherlands. AB Adaptation strategies to climate change have been explored using a linked field-scale basin-scale modeling framework for Walawe basin, Sri Lanka. An integrated approach was followed concentrating on enhancement of food security and preservation of environmental quality. Climate change projections were extracted from the Hadley Climate Center (HadCM3) coupled global circulation model (GCM). Impact and adaptation strategies were evaluated with a coupled modeling framework based on the soil-water-atmosphere-plant (SWAP) field scale model and the water and salinity basin model (WSBM) basin scale model. Three time periods were considered where the 1961-1990 period was used to adjust climate change projections to local conditions and to provide a reference to compare expected changes in the near future (2010-2039) and distant future (2070-2099). The overall impact of climate change on food security and environmental quality appears to be positive as a result of enhanced crop growth due to higher CO2 levels and a small increase in precipitation. However, extremes will be more profound in the future, making adaptation strategies necessary. Results from the modeling framework have been presented in a format accessible to water resources managers and policy makers to enable them to make sound decisions on the required adaptation strategies. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. CR *FAO, 2002, FOOD INS PEOPL LIV H *IPCC WG I, 2001, CLIM CHANG SCI BAS C WATSON RT, 1998, REGIONAL IMPACTS CLI, V1, P1 *IPCC, 2003, INT PAN CLIM CHANG *UNESCO, 2003, WAT PEOPL WAT LIF UN *UNESCO, 2003, WAT PEOPL WAT LIF *WEAP, 2002, WAT EV PLANN SYST ALCARNO J, 1997, A9701 U KASS CTR ENV BOUWER H, 2000, AGR WATER MANAGE, V45, P217 DOORENBOS J, 1979, 33 FAO IRR DROOGERS P, 1999, IRRIG DRAIN, V13, P275 DROOGERS P, 2001, 20 IWMI INT WAT MAN DROOGERS P, 2001, IRRIG DRAIN, V50, P335 DROOGERS P, 2003, FIELD SCALE ADAPTATI DROOGERS P, 2003, IN PRESS CLIMATE CHA DROOGERS P, 2003, WATER FOOD CLIMATE I FEDDES RA, 1978, SIMULATION FIELD WAT GORDON C, 2000, CLIM DYNAM, V16, P147 IMBULANA KAU, 2002, WORLD WAT ASS PROGR, P285 KABAT P, 2002, CLIM CHANG WAT RUL PEREIRA LS, 2002, AGR WATER MANAGE, V57, P175 SHIKLOMANOV IA, 2003, IN PRESS WORLD WAT R STEWART JL, 1997, PRWG151 UT STAT U UT VANDAM JC, 1997, 45 WAG AGR U DLO WIN VANDIEPEN CA, 1989, SOIL USE MANAGE, V5, P16 VOROSMARTY CJ, 2000, SCIENCE, V289, P284 WOLDEGEORGIS T, 1997, INTERNET J AFRICAN S, V1 NR 27 TC 0 J9 AGR WATER MANAGE BP 15 EP 33 PY 2004 PD APR 1 VL 66 IS 1 GA 802LU UT ISI:000220165800002 ER PT J AU Baker, AC Starger, CJ McClanahan, TR Glynn, PW TI Corals' adaptive response to climate change SO NATURE LA English DT Editorial Material C1 Wildlife Conservat Soc, Marine Program, Bronx, NY 10460 USA. Columbia Univ, Ctr Environm Res & Conservat, New York, NY 10027 USA. Columbia Univ, Dept Ecol Evolut & Environm Biol, New York, NY 10027 USA. Univ Miami, Rosenstiel Sch Marine & Atmospher Sci, Miami, FL 33149 USA. RP Baker, AC, Wildlife Conservat Soc, Marine Program, Bronx, NY 10460 USA. CR BAKER AC, 2001, NATURE, V411, P765 BAKER AC, 2003, ANNU REV ECOL EVOL S, V34, P661 BUDDEMEIER RW, 1993, BIOSCIENCE, V43, P320 COLES SL, 2003, ADV MAR BIOL, V46, P183 GLYNN PW, 2001, B MAR SCI, V69, P79 HUGHES TP, 2003, SCIENCE, V301, P929 LAJEUNESSE TC, 2002, MAR BIOL, V141, P387 LITTLE AF, 2004, SCIENCE, V304, P1492 ROWAN R, 1997, NATURE, V388, P265 SHEPPARD CRC, 2003, NATURE, V425, P294 TOLLER WW, 2001, BIOL BULL, V201, P360 WARE JR, 1996, ECOL MODEL, V84, P199 WILKINSON CR, 2002, STATUS CORAL REEFS W NR 13 TC 3 J9 NATURE BP 741 EP 741 PY 2004 PD AUG 12 VL 430 IS 7001 GA 845HS UT ISI:000223233600030 ER PT J AU Hawkes, P Surendran, S Richardson, D TI Use of UKCIP02 climate-change scenarios in flood and coastal defence SO JOURNAL OF THE CHARTERED INSTITUTION OF WATER AND ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article C1 HR Wallingford Ltd, Wallingford, Oxon, England. Environm Agcy, Bristol, Avon, England. RP Hawkes, P, HR Wallingford Ltd, Wallingford, Oxon, England. AB Understanding the uncertainties and risks from climate change is necessary for managing and adapting to those risks. Climate-change scenarios provide a starting point for assessing climate-change vulnerability, impact and adaptation. In April 2002, the UK Climate Impacts Programme released new future climate scenarios and was based on modelling at the Hadley Centre, which included temperature, soil moisture, rainfall, runoff, sea-level rise and wind speed. These data provide a consistent source of information for use in UK climate-change impact studies. This paper (a) summarises some of the results from this programme, (b) explores their implications, and (c) recommends how these results could be applied in UK flood and coastal defence. The opinions of about twenty selected individuals, who were involved in flood and coastal defence, were collated to assess current practice in the use of climate-change information, requirements of climate-change scenarios, and comparison of the content of UKCIP02 with those requirements. CR *DEFRA ENV AG, 2002, FD2302TR1 DEFR FLOOD *ENV AG DEFR, 2002, W5B029PR ENV AG *ENV AG DEFR, 2002, W5B029TR ENV AG *ENV AG, 2000, 21 ENV AG *MAFF, 1999, PB4650 MAFF *MAFF, 2000, PB4907 MAFF, V4 *MAFF, 2001, FLOOD COAST DEF PROJ, V1 *UKCIP ENV AG, 2003, CLIM AD RISK UNC DEC *UN KINGD CLIM IMP, 2002, UKCIP02 U E ANGL SCH FLATHER RA, 2001, 140 PROUDM OC LAB RICHARDSON D, 2002, P I CIVIL ENG-CIV EN, V150, P22 SUTHERLAND JA, 2002, SR590 WALLINGFORD HR, 1980, 924 EX NR 13 TC 0 J9 J CHART INST WATER ENV MANAGE BP 214 EP 219 PY 2003 PD NOV VL 17 IS 4 GA 751HX UT ISI:000187060700004 ER PT J AU Cantlon, JE Koenig, HE TI Sustainable ecological economies SO ECOLOGICAL ECONOMICS LA English DT Article C1 Michigan State Univ, Dept Bot & Plant Pathol, E Lansing, MI 48824 USA. Michigan State Univ, Dept Elect Engn, E Lansing, MI 48824 USA. RP Cantlon, JE, Michigan State Univ, Dept Bot & Plant Pathol, E Lansing, MI 48824 USA. AB A brief accounting is presented of the evolution of natural ecosystems and human cultures including industrialization and its ecologically-significant interactions with natural abiotic and biotic processes of the earth. These accounts show, among other things, that excess resource harvest rates and material releases into the natural environment have been ecological risks of growing scope and scale throughout the history of political economies. The growing ecological risks of industrialization are attributed to disparities between the rates and directions of evolution in the ecological features of process and structure of corporate and political economies relative to the rates and directions of evolution in their cultural institutions of control. Many social and political organizations are now calling for adaptations toward sustainable industrialization by promoting evolution in the cultural institutions of control through research, education, ethics, politics and government. What is required are on-line institutional processes for effectively translating emerging ecological risk assessments into economic incentives for feasible adaptations throughout the systems. Institutionalization of such on-line adaptive processes requires broad moral-ethical enlightenment and social-political commitment to make the emerging scientific, technological and economic dimensions productive (Faber et al., 1996). This paper presents on-line strategies of ecological risk assessment and control which are believed to be superior to alternatives that require a prior consensus on economic valuations of natural resource stocks, natural processes and environmental damages; and incentives have advantages over prescriptive regulations. When viewed in their greater economic context, the proposed strategies are formulated as coordinated institutions of on-line ecological and fiscal control processes on what is here defined as the ecological economies of corporate and political economies. The objective of the proposed control strategies is to pursue trajectories of joint ecological and cultural evolution toward systems that are ecologically and culturally both satisfying and sustainable. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. CR *COUNC ENV QUAL, 1995, ENV QUAL *WORLD RES I, 1994, WORLD RES 1994 95 GU AUSUBEL JH, 1996, AM SCI, V84, P166 BODMER WF, 1975, GENETICS EVOLUTION M CHAPIN FS, 1997, SCIENCE, V277, P500 COSTANZA R, 1991, ECOLOGICAL EC SCI MA, P1 COSTANZA R, 1997, NATURE, V387, P253 DITZ D, 1995, GREEN LEDGERS CASE S FABER M, 1996, ECOLOGICAL EC CONCEP FABER M, 1997, EVOLUTION TIME PRODU FARRELL A, 1996, IEEE TECHNOL SOC MAG, V15, P11 FIROR J, 1990, CHANGING ATMOSPHERE FROSCH RA, 1992, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V89, P800 GODWIN H, 1965, ESSAYS CROP EVOLUTIO, P1 GRUBER A, 1996, P AM ACAD ARTS SCI, V125, P19 HAMMOND A, 1995, ENV INDICATORS SYSTE HARLAN JR, 1995, LIVING FIELDS OUR AG HEATON GR, 1991, TRANSFORMING TECHNOL HINTERBERGER F, 1997, ECOL ECON, V23, P1 HOUGHTON RA, 1993, WORLD FORESTS FUTURE, P21 JELINSKI LW, 1992, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V89, P793 JOFFE JS, 1949, PEDOLOGY KAHN P, 1997, SCIENCE, V277, P176 KAISER J, 1997, SCIENCE, V277, P466 KATES RW, 1996, P AM ACAD ARTS SCI, V125, P43 KOENIG H, 1999, IN PRESS J IND ECOL KOENIG HE, 1998, IEEE T SYST MAN CY C, V28, P16 LOVELOCK J, 1982, GAIA NEW LOOK LIFE E LYNCH C, 1996, AMICUS J, V18, P20 MASSARRAT M, 1997, ECOL ECON, V22, P29 MATSON PA, 1997, SCIENCE, V277, P504 ODUM HT, 1960, ECOLOGY, V41, P395 OROURKE D, 1996, INT J ENVIRON POLLUT, V6, P89 REPETTO R, 1989, WASTING ASSETS NATUR ROUSH W, 1997, SCIENCE, V276, P1029 SAHLINS M, 1974, STONE AGE EC SCHIPPER L, 1996, DAEDALUS, V125, P113 VERNADSKY VI, 1926, BIOSPHERE VITOUSEK PM, 1997, SCIENCE, V277, P494 WATSON RT, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, V1, P1 WEISS P, 1996, SCIENCE, V272, P1784 WOODWELL GM, 1990, EARTH TRANSITION PAT NR 42 TC 1 J9 ECOL ECON BP 107 EP 121 PY 1999 PD OCT VL 31 IS 1 GA 256WT UT ISI:000083750000010 ER PT J AU You, SC TI Agricultural adaptation to climate change in China SO JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES-CHINA LA English DT Article C1 Tokyo Inst Technol, Tokyo 152, Japan. RP You, SC, Tokyo Inst Technol, Tokyo 152, Japan. AB This paper presents the study on agriculture adaptation to climate change by adopting the assumed land use change strategy to resist the water shortage and to build the capacity to adapt the expected climate change in the northern China. The cost-benefit analysis result shows that assumed land use change from high water consuming rice cultivation to other crops is very effective. Over billions m(3) of water can be saved. Potential conflicts between different social interest groups, different regions, demand and supply, and present and future interests have been analyzed for to form a policy to implement the adaptation strategy. Trade, usually taken as one of adaptation strategies, was suggested as a policy option for to support land use change, which not only meets the consumption demand, but also, in terms of resources, imports water resources. Key words: agriculture; adaptation; climate change; land use change. CR *ED COMM CHIN AGR, 1999, AGR YB 1980 1998 *HYDR BUR MIN WAT, 1987, ASS CHIN WAT RES WATSON RT, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, V1, P1 WATSON RT, 1998, REGIONAL IMPACTS CLI, V1, P1 *STAT STAT BUR, 1999, CHIN RUR STAT YB 198 *STAT STAT BUR, 1999, STAT YB 1990 1998 BAYASGALAN S, 1996, ADAPTING CLIMATE CHA, P164 BURTON I, 1997, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V36, P185 CARTER TR, 1996, ADAPTING CLIMATE CHA, P107 CHEN YM, 1995, CROP WATER REQUIREME, P73 DOWNING TE, 1997, MITIGATION ADAPTATIO, V2, P19 EASTERLING WE, 1993, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V24, P23 EASTERLING WE, 1996, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V80, P1 ELSHAER MH, 1996, ADAPTING CLIMATE CHA, P109 FISCHER G, 1994, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V4, P7 JODHA NS, 1984, GREENHOUSE WARMING A, P147 LIN ED, 1996, WATER AIR SOIL POLLU MAGALHAES AR, 1996, ADAPTING CLIMATE CHA, P44 MATARIRA CH, 1996, ADAPTING CLIMATE CHA, P129 MIZINA SV, 1998, ADAPTING CLIMATE CHA, P149 PARRY ML, 1998, NATURE, V395, P741 ROSENBERG NJ, 1992, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V21, P385 ROSENZWEIG C, 1994, NATURE, V367, P133 SEINO H, 1998, GLOBAL WARMING POTEN, P101 SEINO H, 1999, J AGR METEOROL, V51, P131 SMIT B, 1996, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V33, P7 TAO Z, 1993, CLIMATE BIOSPHERE IN TOL RSJ, 1998, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V8, P109 TOMAN MA, 1996, ADAPTING CLIMATE CHA, P5 WANG JH, 1996, WATER AIR SOIL POLL, V92, P75 YOHE GW, 1997, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V37, P243 ZHANG Y, 1997, SIMULATION GLOBAL CL NR 32 TC 0 J9 J ENVIRON SCI-CHINA BP 192 EP 197 PY 2001 PD APR VL 13 IS 2 GA 537VM UT ISI:000174780400013 ER PT J AU Obasi, GOP TI Embracing sustainability science: The challenges for Africa SO ENVIRONMENT LA English DT Article C1 World Meteorol Org, CH-1211 Geneva 2, Switzerland. RP Obasi, GOP, World Meteorol Org, 7 Bis,Ave Paix,Case Postale 2300, CH-1211 Geneva 2, Switzerland. CR *INT PAN CLIM CHAN, 2001, CLIM CHANG 2001 SCI MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 *ORG AFR U, 2001, NEW AFR IN *UN CONV COMB DES, 1994, AAC24127 UN *UN POP FUND, 1998, STAT WORLD POP 1998 *UN, 2001, ROL UN SUPP EFF AFR *WHO, 1998, WORLD HEALTH FORUM, V18, P248 *WORLD BANK, 1995, SER AFR TECHN DEP *WORLD COMM ENV DE, 1987, OUR COMM FUT CORNFORD SG, 2001, WMO B, V50, P284 JALLOW BP, 1999, NATL ASSESSMENT RESU, P129 KATES RW, 2001, SCIENCE, V292, P641 LOEVINSOHN ME, 1994, LANCET, V343, P714 OBASI GOP, 1999, 5 GEN C AFR AC SCI H OBASI GOP, 2001, AFR REG WORKSH SUST NR 15 TC 0 J9 ENVIRONMENT BP 8 EP 19 PY 2002 PD MAY VL 44 IS 4 GA 543GG UT ISI:000175092600003 ER PT J AU Fraser, EDG Mabee, W Slaymaker, O TI Mutual vulnerability, mutual dependence - The reflexive relation between human society and the environment. SO GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS LA English DT Article C1 Univ British Columbia, Liu Inst Global Issues, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z2, Canada. RP Fraser, EDG, Univ British Columbia, Liu Inst Global Issues, 6476 NW Marine Dr, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z2, Canada. AB Human society affects environmental change but is also vulnerable to these changes. This relation has generated a number of theories that either focus on how we affect the environment or how the environment affects us. Few theories explicitly focus on the interaction. This paper will establish the range of data required to give an assessment of how likely an ecosystem is to change (which we label environmental sensitivity) and the ability of communities to adapt (social resilience). These findings allow us to generate a new method for assessing the reflexive relation between society and the environment. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. 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RP MENDELSOHN, R, YALE UNIV, SCH FORESTRY & ENVIRONM STUDIES, NEW HAVEN, CT 06511 USA. AB This paper provides a framework for integrated assessment of the impacts of climate change on natural resources and sets the stage for papers that follow in this volume. Integrated assessments are used to organize large quantities of technical information bearing on complex issues (environmental and others) in ways that facilitate application of the information in decision making and policy setting. Any integrated assessment must be based on the best available information. For that reason this paper includes a 'primer' on the current (and presumably best available) understanding of the science underlying climatic change. The remainder of the paper describes the component parts of one possible framework for integrated assessment. 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Indiana Univ, Bloomington, IN 47405 USA. RP Li, Q, Penn State Univ, University Pk, PA 16802 USA. AB In a relatively small but growing body of literature in political science and environmental studies, scholars debate the effect of democracy on environmental degradation. Some theorists claim that democracy reduces environmental degradation. Others argue that democracy may not reduce environmental degradation or may even harm the environment. Empirical evidence thus far has been limited and conflicting. This article seeks to address the democracy-environment debate. We focus on the effect of political regime type on human activities that directly damage the environment. Our discussion of the theoretical literature identifies different causal mechanisms through which democracy could affect environmental degradation. The empirical analysis focuses on the net effect of these competing mechanisms. We examine statistically the effect of democracy on five aspects of human-induced environmental degradation-carbon dioxide emissions, nitrogen dioxide emissions, deforestation, land degradation, and organic pollution in water. We find that democracy reduces all five types of environmental degradation. While the substantive effect of democracy is considerable, it varies in size across different types of environmental degradation. We also find nonmonotonic effects of democracy that vary across the environmental indicators. 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RP Vogel, C, Univ Witwatersrand, Sch Geog Archaeol & Environm Studies, P Bag 3, ZA-2050 Johannesburg, South Africa. NR 0 TC 0 J9 GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANGE BP 235 EP 236 PY 2006 PD AUG VL 16 IS 3 GA 073OJ UT ISI:000239752200001 ER PT J AU Ford, JD Smit, B Wandel, J MacDonald, J TI Vulnerability to climate change in Igloolik, Nunavut: what we can learn from the past and present SO POLAR RECORD LA English DT Article C1 Univ Guelph, Dept Geog, Guelph, ON N1G 2W1, Canada. Igloolik Res Ctr, Igloolik, NU X0A 0L0, Canada. RP Ford, JD, Univ Guelph, Dept Geog, Guelph, ON N1G 2W1, Canada. AB Significant and rapid climate change is predicted for Arctic regions. These changes are expected to have implications for indigenous communities. This paper argues that the starting point to understand how future climate change may affect communities is analysis of past and present experience of, and response to, climate variability and change. Using a vulnerability approach, the paper provides an historical account of changing vulnerability to climate-related risks among Inuit in Igloolik, Nunavut. The research demonstrates that Inuit in Igloolik have been highly adaptable in the face of climatic stresses. This adaptability has historically been facilitated by traditional Inuit knowledge, resource use flexibility and diversity, group mobility, and strong social networks. However, societal changes, and more recently biophysical changes, have increased the susceptibility of people to climatic risks and have undermined certain aspects of adaptive capacity. The research indicates that the implications of future climate change will be influenced by the interaction between biophysical and societal changes, will vary over time in response to forces internal and external to the community, and will be differentiated among social groups. 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RP Smit, B, Univ Guelph, Dept Geog, Guelph, ON N1G 2W1, Canada. AB This paper reviews the concept of adaptation of human communities to global changes, especially climate change, in the context of adaptive capacity and vulnerability. It focuses on scholarship that contributes to practical implementation of adaptations at the community scale. In numerous social science fields, adaptations are considered as responses to risks associated with the interaction of environmental hazards and human vulnerability or adaptive capacity. In the climate change field, adaptation analyses have been undertaken for several distinct purposes. Impact assessments assume adaptations to estimate damages to longer term climate scenarios with and without adjustments. Evaluations of specified adaptation options aim to identify preferred measures. Vulnerability indices seek to provide relative vulnerability scores for countries, regions or communities. The main purpose of participatory vulnerability assessments is to identify adaptation strategies that are feasible and practical in communities. The distinctive features of adaptation analyses with this purpose are outlined, and common elements of this approach are described. Practical adaptation initiatives tend to focus on risks that are already problematic, climate is considered together with other environmental and social stresses, and adaptations are mostly integrated or mainstreamed into other resource management, disaster preparedness and sustainable development programs. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 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RP Apuuli, B, Meteorol Dept, POB 7025, Kampala, Uganda. AB Many developing countries, especially in Africa, contribute only very small amounts to the world total of greenhouse gas emissions. For them, the reduction of such emissions is not a priority, and the more important issue is to find ways to reduce their vulnerability to the projected climate change which is being imposed upon them largely as a result of emissions from developed countries. This priority does not accord with the ultimate objective of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, which is to achieve stabilization of greenhouse gas emissions. This paper reports upon studies in Uganda designed to help in the development of a national adaptation strategy, and addresses the need to reconcile such a strategy with the global priority accorded to mitigation and with national economic development priorities. Some features of a national climate change adaptation strategy are identified and questions are raised about the need for an international regime to facilitate and support adaptation. CR *DEP MET, 1997, WORKSH P DEV AD STRA *INT PAN CLIM CHAN, 1998, REG IMP CLIM CHANG A *REP UG MIN AGR AN, 1994, REP INQ FAM N *REP UG MIN NAT RE, 1994, SOURC 1994 SOURC SIN *US EPA, 1994, INV US GREENH GAS EM BENIOFF R, 1997, NATL CLIMATE CHANGE MADRAA E, 1997, WORKSH REP DEV AD ST OGALLO LJ, 1988, J CLIMATOL, V8, P31 OGALLO LJ, 1988, J METEOROL SOC JPN, V66, P807 NR 9 TC 2 J9 ENVIRON MONIT ASSESS BP 145 EP 159 PY 2000 PD MAR VL 61 IS 1 GA 300UB UT ISI:000086270100012 ER PT J AU PARK, TK TI EARLY TRENDS TOWARD CLASS STRATIFICATION - CHAOS, COMMON PROPERTY, AND FLOOD RECESSION AGRICULTURE SO AMERICAN ANTHROPOLOGIST LA English DT Article RP PARK, TK, UNIV ARIZONA,DEPT ANTHROPOL,TUCSON,AZ 85721. AB In societies based on flood recession agriculture in arid regions, economic stratification, institutionalized ways of sloughing off population, and common property are particularly valuable risk management options. Using ethnographic data from the Senegal River Basin and historical data from the Nile Valley, I argue that tendencies toward stratification were inherent in riverine societies practicing flood recession agriculture. Thus, early stratification occurred long before population pressure reached significant levels and well before regional trade, extensive storage capacity, or elaborate water-management infrastructure became economically significant. The article is intended to help explain why a number of civilizations developed in arid riverine contexts. 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Univ Georgia, Dept Biol & Agr Engn, Griffin, GA 30223 USA. RP Alexandrov, VA, Natl Inst Meteorol & Hydrol, BG-1784 Sofia, Bulgaria. AB During the recent decade, the problem of climate variability and change, due to natural processes as well as factors of anthropogenetic origin, has come to the forefront, of scientific problems. The objective of this study was to investigate climate variability in Bulgaria during the 20th century and to determine the overall impact on agriculture. There was no significant change in the mean annual air temperature. In general, there was a decrease in total precipitation amount during the warm-half of the year, starting at the end of the 1970s. Statistical multiple regression models, describing the relationship between crop yield, precipitation, and air temperature were also developed. Several transient climate change scenarios, using global climate model (GCM) outputs, were created. The Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) Version 3.5 was used to assess the influence of projected climate change on grain yield of maize and winter wheat in Bulgaria. Under a current level of CO2 (330 ppm), the GCM scenarios projected a decrease in yield of winter wheat and especially maize, caused by a shorter crop growing season due to higher temperatures and a precipitation deficit. When the direct effects of CO2 were included in the study, all GCM scenarios resulted in an increase in winter wheat yield. Adaptation measures to mitigate the potential impact of climate change on maize crop production in Bulgaria included possible changes in sowing date and hybrid selection. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. CR *ANL, 1994, GUID VULN AD ASS *IPCC DDC, 1999, DAT INF SUPPL IPCC D ADAMS RM, 1998, CLIMATE RES, V11, P19 ADAMS RM, 1999, AGR GLOBAL CLIMATE C ALEXANDROV VA, 1999, P INT S MOD CROPP SY, P131 ALEXANDROV VA, 1997, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V36, P135 CARTER TR, 1994, IPCC TECHNICAL GUIDE, P52 DAVIES A, 1998, ANN APPL BIOL, V133, P135 DOWNING TE, 1996, NATO ASI SERIES, V1 EASTERLING WE, 1996, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V80, P1 EASTERLING WE, 1996, CLIMATE RES, V6, P263 ELMAAYAR M, 1997, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V85, P193 FRECKLETON RP, 1999, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V93, P39 GADGIL S, 1999, CURR SCI INDIA, V76, P557 GROTCH SL, 1991, J CLIMATE, V4, P286 HARRISON P, 1995, CLIMATE CHANGE AGR E HERSHKOVICH E, 1982, AGROCLIMATIC ATLAS B HOUGHTON J, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995 HULME M, 1999, NATURE, V397, P688 KAUFMANN RK, 1997, AM J AGR ECON, V79, P178 LAL M, 1999, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V93, P53 PEIRIS DR, 1996, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V79, P271 RITCHIE JT, 1998, UNDERSTANDING OPTION, P79 ROSENZWEIG C, 1995, CLIMATE CHANGE AGR A, V59 SLAVOV N, 1985, CROP PHYSL, V11, P65 SMITH JB, 1996, ADAPTING CLIMATE CHA SMITH JB, 1997, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V7, P251 THORNTON PK, 1994, AGRON J, V86, P860 TSUJI G, 1994, DSSAT VERSION 3, V1 TSUJI G, 1998, UNDERSTANDING OPTION WATSON RT, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, V1, P1 WOLF J, 1995, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V29, P299 NR 32 TC 6 J9 AGR FOREST METEOROL BP 315 EP 327 PY 2000 PD SEP 15 VL 104 IS 4 GA 354CF UT ISI:000089311700005 ER PT J AU Barnett, J TI Security and climate change SO GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS LA English DT Article C1 Univ Melbourne, Sch Anthropol Geog & Environm Studies, Melbourne, Vic 3010, Australia. RP Barnett, J, Univ Melbourne, Sch Anthropol Geog & Environm Studies, Melbourne, Vic 3010, Australia. AB Despite it being the most studied and arguably most profound of global environmental change problems, there is relatively little research that explores climate change as a security issue. This paper systematically explores the range of possible connections between climate change and security, including national security considerations, human security concerns, military roles, and a discussion of the widely held assumption that climate change may trigger violent conflict. The paper explains the ways in which climate change is a security issue. It includes in its discussion issues to do with both mitigation and adaptation of climate change. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science. Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *COMM AUSTR, 1997, AUSTR 2 NAT REP UN F *DOD, 2000, US DEP DEF CLIM CHAN MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 *REP MARSH ISL, 2000, IN COMM UN FRAM CONV *UNDP, 1994, HUM DEV REP 1994 *UNDP, 1998, HUM DEV REP 1998 *UNDP, 1999, PAC ISL HUM DEV REP *WORLD BANK, 2000, CIT SEA STORMS MAN C *WORLD BANK, 2000, WORLD DEV REP 1999 2 BAECHLER G, 1999, ECOLOGY POLITICS VIO, P76 BAECHLER G, 1999, ENV CHANGE SECURITY, P107 BAECHLER G, 1999, VIOLENCE ENV DISCRIM BARNETT J, 2000, REV INT STUD, V26, P271 BARNETT J, 2001, 7 U E ANGL BARNETT J, 2001, ISSUE ADVERSE EFFECT BARNETT J, 2001, MEANING ENV SECURITY BARNETT J, 2001, PACIFICA REV, V13, P157 BARNETT J, 2002, BIENN C AS PAC CTR S BERNSTEIN PM, 1999, ENERGY J, P221 BOYCE JK, 1999, ECOL ECON, V29, P127 BROCK L, 1997, CONFLICT ENV, P17 BROWN L, 1977, 14 WORLDW BROWN L, 1994, FULL HOUSE REASSESSI BROWN N, 1989, SURVIVAL, V31, P519 CHOSSUDOVSKY M, 1998, GLOBALISATION POVERT CLINTON W, 1996, US NATL SECURITY STR COLLIER P, 2000, EC CAUSES CIVIL CONF DALBY S, 1992, PROG HUM GEOG, V16, P503 DALBY S, 1994, GREEN SECURITY MILIT, P25 DALBY S, 1996, ECUMENE, V3, P471 DESOYSA I, 2000, GREED GRIEVANCE EC A, P113 DESOYSA I, 2001, 200142 WORLD I DEV E DEUDNEY D, 1991, B ATOM SCI, V47, P23 DOWER N, 1995, ESSAYS PEACE PARADIG, P18 ECKSTEIN H, 1975, PATTERNS AUTHORITY S EDWARDS MJ, 1996, PACIFICA REV, V8, P63 EDWARDS MJ, 1999, AUST GEOGR, V30, P311 EHRLICH PR, 1991, GEORGIA REV, V45, P223 ESTY DC, 1999, ENV CHANGE SECURITY, V5, P49 FALCOM L, 2001, EW CTR SEN POL SEM A FALK R, 1971, ENDANGERED PLANET PR FRASER G, 2000, EARTH TIMES 1115 GIZEWSKI P, 1998, ECOVIOLENCE LINKS EN, P147 GLEDITSCH NP, 1998, J PEACE RES, V35, P381 GLEDITSCH NP, 2001, ENV CONFLICT, P251 GLEICK PH, 1992, CONFRONTING CLIMATE, P127 GOLDSTONE J, 2001, ENV CONFLICT, P84 HARTMANN B, 2001, VIOLENT ENV, P39 HAUGE W, 2001, ENV CONFLICT, P36 HOEGHGULDBERG O, 2000, PACIFIC PERIL BIOL E HOLTHUS P, 1992, VULNERABILITY ASSESS HOMERDIXON T, ECOVIOLENCE LINKS EN HOMERDIXON T, 1996, ENV SECURITY VIOLENT HOMERDIXON T, 1999, ENV SCARCITY VIOLENC HOMERDIXON TF, 1991, INT SECURITY, V16, P76 HOWARD P, 1998, ECOVIOLENCE LINKS EN, P19 KAPLAN RD, 1994, ATLANTIC MONTHLY FEB, V273, P44 KLOTZLI S, 1994, 11 ENCOP CTR SEC POL LIPSCHUTZ RD, 1990, B PEACE PROPOSALS, V21, P121 LONERGAN S, 1999, AVISO B MACKELLAR FL, 1998, HUMAN CHOICE CLIMATE, V1, P89 MATHEWS JT, 1989, FOREIGN AFF, V68, P162 MATTHEW R, 2001, CANADIAN J POLITICAL, V1, P48 MURDIYARSO D, 2000, ENVIRON MONIT ASSESS, V61, P123 MYERS N, 1994, ULTIMATE SECURITY EN NICHOLLS RJ, 1999, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V9, PS69 NURSE L, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 PAGE E, 2000, RECIEL, V9, P33 PARRY ML, 1999, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V9, PS51 PEARCE F, 2000, NEW SCI, V165, P44 PERCIVAL V, 2001, ENV CONFLICT, P13 RAHMAN A, 1999, ECOLOGY POLITICS VIO, P181 RAPKIN DP, 1986, COOPERATION CONFLICT, V21, P99 ROWLANDS I, 1991, WASH QUART, V14, P99 SANCHEZ PA, 2000, AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON, V82, P371 SHAW B, 1996, ENV CHANGE SECURITY, V2, P39 SINGER JD, 1972, WORLD POLIT, V24, P243 SMIL V, 1997, SAIS REV, V17, P107 SOROOS M, 1997, ENDANGERED ATMOSPHER SWAIN A, 1993, SECUR DIALOGUE, V24, P429 SWAIN A, 1996, ENV TRAP GANGES RIVE SWART RJ, 1996, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V6, P187 TORRAS M, 1998, ECOL ECON, V25, P147 VANIRELAND E, 1996, 410200006 DUTCH NAT WALKER R, 1993, INSIDE OUTSIDE INT R WALLENSTEEN P, 1997, J PEACE RES, V34, P339 WATSON R, 2000, CHAIR INT PAN CLIM C WESTING AH, 1989, B PEACE PROPOSALS, V20, P129 WILKIE D, 1999, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V9, P323 WILSON TW, 1983, WORLD CLIMATE CHANGE, P71 WOLF AT, 1999, ENV CHANGE ADAPTATIO, P251 NR 91 TC 2 J9 GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANGE BP 7 EP 17 PY 2003 PD APR VL 13 IS 1 GA 679ZD UT ISI:000182951100002 ER PT J AU Allen, KM TI Community-based disaster preparedness and climate adaptation: local capacity-building in the Philippines SO DISASTERS LA English DT Article C1 Social Res Associates, Leicester LE1 6TP, Leics, England. RP Allen, KM, Social Res Associates, 12 Princess Rd W, Leicester LE1 6TP, Leics, England. AB Community-based disaster preparedness (CBDP) approaches are increasingly important elements of vulnerability reduction and disaster management strategies. They are associated with a policy trend that values the knowledge and capacities of local people and builds on local resources, including social capital. CBDP may be instrumental not only in formulating local coping and adaptation strategies, but also in situating them within wider development planning and debates. In theory, local people can be mobilised to resist unsustainable (vulnerability increasing) forms of development or livelihood practices and to raise local concerns more effectively with political representatives. This paper focuses on the potential of CBDP initiatives to alleviate vulnerability in the context of climate change, and their limitations. It presents evidence from the Philippines that, in the limited forms in which they are currently employed, CBDP initiatives have the potential both to empower and disempower, and warns against treating CBDP as a panacea to disaster management problems. CR *CARE BANGL, 2005, CAN WE DRINK SAL WAT *IDRM INT, 2002, CAMB RED CROSS COMM *RED CROSS RED CRE, 2005, PREP DIS REL CLIM CH ADGER WN, 2000, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V90, P738 ALEXANDER D, 1997, DISASTERS, V21, P284 ALLEN K, 2003, NATURAL DISASTERS DE, P170 ALLEN K, 2004, WORLD DISASTERS REPO, P101 BANKOFF G, 2001, DISASTERS, V25, P19 BANKOFF G, 2004, ANN AM GEOGRAPHY BAUMANN P, 2001, 68 ODI BENSON C, 2001, DISASTERS, V25, P199 BHATT MR, 1998, UNDERSTANDING VULNER, P68 BLAIKIE PM, 1994, RISK NATURAL HAZARDS, V1, P1 BOYCE JK, 2000, DISASTERS, V24, P254 BRYANT C, 1984, MANAGING RURAL DEV S BUCKLOW I, 2000, MATER WORLD, V8, P14 CERNEA M, 1991, PUTTING PEOPLE 1 SOC CHRISTIE F, 2000, AFRICA ISSUES MOZAMB CONSTANTINODAVI.K, 1992, MAKING DIFFERENCE NG, P137 DAVIS I, 2004, MAPPING VULNERABILIT DELICAWILLISON Z, 2004, MAPPING VULNERABILIT, P145 DESAI V, 2002, COMPANION DEV STUDIE, P117 DEVEREUX S, 2001, DEV POLICY REV, V19, P507 DYNES RR, 1998, WHAT IS DISASTER, P109 EADE D, 1997, CAPACITY BUILDING AP EVANS P, 1996, WORLD DEV, V24, P6 FALK I, 2000, SOCIOL RURALIS, V40, P87 GILBERT A, 1984, WORLD DEV, V12, P8 GOODMAN A, 2000, CLIN CORNERSTONE, V3, P25 HARRISS J, 1997, J INT DEV, V9, P919 HEIJMANS A, 2004, MAPPING VULNERABILIT, P115 HEWITT K, 1983, INTERPRETATIONS CALA HOWELL P, 2003, 6 BEN HAZ RES CTR JALALI R, 2002, DISASTERS, V26, P120 JOHNSTON BF, 1982, REDESIGNING RURAL DE KAUFMAN M, 1997, COMMUNITY POWER GRAS LAVELL A, 1994, DISASTERS DEV ENV, P49 LEONARD DK, 1982, I RURAL DEV POOR LISTER S, 2003, DEV POLICY REV, V21, P93 LUNA EM, 2000, NGO NATURAL DISASTER LUNA EM, 2004, INT C CHALL COMPL CO MARSH G, 2001, AUSTR J EMERGENCY MA, V16, P5 MASING L, 1999, NATURAL DISASTER MAN, P201 MCILWAINE C, 1998, PROG HUM GEOG, V22, P415 MIDGLEY J, 1986, COMMUNITY PARTICIPAT, P13 MOHAN G, 2000, THIRD WORLD Q, V21, P247 MORRIS A, 2003, NATURAL DISASTER DEV, P157 OAKLEY P, 1991, PROJECTS PEOPLE PRAC OSTROM E, 1990, GOVERNING COMMON EVO PATON D, 2001, AUSTR J EMERGENCY MA, V16, P47 PELLING M, 2002, INT DEV PLAN REV, V24, P59 ROCHA JL, 2001, DISASTERS, V25, P240 SIDEL JT, 1999, CAPITAL COERCION CRI SKERCHLY A, 2001, AUSTR J EMERGENCY MA, V16, P23 TOBIN GA, 1999, ENV HAZARDS, V1, P13 TOBIN GA, 2002, DISASTERS, V26, P28 UPHOFF N, 1991, PUTTING PEOPLE FIRST, P359 UPHOFF N, 1992, LEARNING GAL OYA POS WARNER J, 2003, NATURAL DISASTERS DE, P185 WATTS M, 1983, INTERPRETATIONS CALA, P231 WINCHESTER P, 1992, POWER CHOICE VULNERA WINCHESTER P, 2000, DISASTERS, V24, P18 NR 62 TC 0 J9 DISASTERS BP 81 EP 101 PY 2006 PD MAR VL 30 IS 1 GA 017LA UT ISI:000235693900007 ER PT J AU Metzger, MJ Rounsevell, MDA Acosta-Michlik, L Leemans, R Schrotere, D TI The vulnerability of ecosystem services to land use change SO AGRICULTURE ECOSYSTEMS & ENVIRONMENT LA English DT Article C1 Wageningen Univ, Dept Plant Sci, Plant Prod Syst Grp, NL-6700 AK Wageningen, Netherlands. Univ Catholique Louvain, Dept Geog, B-1348 Louvain, Belgium. Wageningen Univ, Dept Environm Sci, Environm Sci Anal Grp, NL-6700 AA Wageningen, Netherlands. Harvard Univ, Sci Environm & Dev Grp, Ctr Int Dev, Kennedy Sch Govt, Cambridge, MA 02138 USA. RP Metzger, MJ, Wageningen Univ, Dept Plant Sci, Plant Prod Syst Grp, POB 430, NL-6700 AK Wageningen, Netherlands. AB Terrestrial ecosystems provide a number of vital services for people and society, such as biodiversity, food. fibre, water resources, carbon sequestration, and recreation. The future capability of ecosystems to provide these services is determined by changes in socio-economic characteristics, land use, biodiversity, atmospheric composition and climate. Most published impact assessments do not address the vulnerability of the human-environment system under such environmental change. They cannot answer important multidisciplinary policy relevant questions Such as: which are the main regions or sectors that are vulnerable to global change? How do the vulnerabilities of two regions compare? Which scenario is the least, or most, harmful for a given region or sector? The ATEAM project (Advanced Terrestrial Ecosystem Analysis and Modelling) uses a new approach to ecosystem assessment by integrating the potential impacts in a vulnerability assessment, which can help answer multidisciplinary questions, such as those listed above. This paper presents the vulnerability assessment of the ATEAM land use scenarios. The 14 land use types, discussed in detail by Rounsevell et al. (this volume), can be related to a range of ecosystem services. For instance, forest area is associated with wood production and designated land with outdoor recreation. Directly applying the vulnerability methodology to the land use change scenarios helps in understanding land use change impacts across the European environment. Scatter plots summarising impacts per principal European Environmental Zone (EnZ) help in interpreting how the impacts of the scenarios differ between ecosystem services and the European environments. While there is considerable heterogeneity in both the potential impacts of global changes, and the adaptive capacity to cope with these impacts, this assessment shows that southern Europe in particular will be vulnerable to land use change. Projected economic growth increases adaptive capacity, but is also associated with the most negative potential impacts. The potential impacts of more environmentally oriented developments are smaller, indicating an important role for both policy and society in determining eventual residual impacts. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. CR *IM TEAM, 2001, IM 2 2 IMPL SRES SCE *IPCC, 2001, CLIM CHANG 2001 MIT *IPCC, 2001, CLIM CHANG 2001 SCI *IPCC, 2001, IMP AD VULN CONTR WO *MILL EC ASS, 2003, EC HUM WELLB FRAM AS *UNEP, 2002, GEO 3 GLOB ENV OUTL *WORLD CONS MON CT, 1992, GLOB BIOD STAT EARTH ALCAMO J, 2002, ENVIRON SCI POLICY, V5, P255 BUNCE RGH, 1987, BIOMASS ENERGY IND, P1272 CORNELISSEN AMG, 2001, AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON, V86, P173 DAILY GC, 1997, NATURES SERV EKBOIR J, 2002, CIMMYT 2000 2001 WOR EWERT F, 2005, AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON, V107, P101 GALLOWAY JN, 2001, WATER AIR SOIL POL 1, V130, P17 GEIST HJ, 2002, BIOSCIENCE, V52, P143 GROTHMANN T, IN PRESS PEOPLE RISK KANKAANPAA S, 2004, CONSTRUCTION EUROPEA KASPERSON JX, 2001, SEI RISK VULNERABILI KATES RW, 2001, SCIENCE, V292, P641 KLIJN JA, 2005, 1196 EURURALIS LAMBIN EF, 2001, HUMAN POLICY DIMENSI, V11, P261 LUERS AL, 2003, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V13, P255 METZGER MJ, 2004, ATEAM VULNERABILITY METZGER MJ, 2005, GLOBAL ECOL BIOGEOGR, V14, P549 METZGER MJ, 2005, INT J APPL EARTH OBS, V7, P253 METZGER MJ, 2005, THESIS WAGENINGEN U MITCHELL TD, 2004, 55 U E ANGL TYND CTR NAKICENOVIC N, 2000, IPCC SPECIAL REPORT REGINSTER I, IN PRESS SCENARIOS F REID WV, 2005, MILLENNIUM ECOSYSTEM ROUNSEVELL MDA, 2005, AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON, V107, P117 SCHROTER D, 2003, 5 OP M HUM DIM GLOB SCHROTER D, 2005, SCIENCE, V310, P1333 SCHROTER D, 2005, STRATEGIES GLOBAL CH, V10, P573 SMITH JB, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, P913 STEFFEN W, 2001, IGBP, V4, P2 THOMAS CD, 2004, NATURE, V427, P145 THUILLER W, 2004, J BIOGEOGR, V31, P353 TURNER BL, 1997, EARTH SCI FRONTIERS, V4, P26 TURNER BL, 2003, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V100, P8074 VANDERMEIJDEN R, 1996, GORTERIA, V22, P1 VANITTERSUM MK, 2003, EUR J AGRON, V18, P201 WATSON RT, 2000, LAND USE LAND USE CH YOHE GW, 2002, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V12, P25 NR 44 TC 3 J9 AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON BP 69 EP 85 PY 2006 PD MAY VL 114 IS 1 GA 024XX UT ISI:000236231000006 ER PT J AU Chowdhury, RR Turner, BL TI Reconciling agency and structure in empirical analysis: Smallholder land use in the southern Yucatan, Mexico SO ANNALS OF THE ASSOCIATION OF AMERICAN GEOGRAPHERS LA English DT Review C1 Univ Miami, Dept Geog & Reg Studies, Coral Gables, FL 33124 USA. Clark Univ, Grad Sch Geog, Worcester, MA 01610 USA. RP Chowdhury, RR, Univ Miami, Dept Geog & Reg Studies, 1000 Mem Dr, Coral Gables, FL 33124 USA. AB The agent-structure binary in human-environment relations has historically ascribed primacy to either decision-making agents or political-economic structures as the anthropogenic force driving landscape change. This binary has, in part, separated cultural and political ecology, despite important research weaving structure and agency in each of these and related subfields. The implications of approaching explanations of land use using this binary are illustrated systematically, drawing from empirical research on smallholder land use in the southern Yucatan of Mexico, a development frontier and environmental conservation region. The land-use strategies of mixed subsistence-market smallholder cultivators are explored through agent, structure, and integrated agent-structure models addressing parcel allocations to a suite of regionally evolving and/or extant land uses. The models are compared to illustrate what understanding is missed by a focus on either approach alone and what is gained by joining them. Results suggest that focusing on structure or agency alone may lead to inadequate and even erroneous characterizations of the variables that are of interest to the chosen approach. A sectorally disaggregated approach can identify suites of factors that drive particular land uses. CR *FAO, 1999, STAT WORLDS FOR 1999 *IGBP IHDP, 1995, 35 IGPIDHP *IGBP IHDP, 2005, 53 IGBPIHDP *MEA, 2003, EC HUM WELL FRAM ASS *NRC, 1999, OUR COMM JOURN TRANS *SEMARNAP, 2000, PROGR MAN RES BIOS C ABIZAID C, 2004, LAND USE POLICY, V21, P71 ACHARD F, 1998, TREES PUBLICATION SE BARLETT PF, 1980, AGR DECISION MAKING BASSETT TJ, 1988, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V78, P453 BATTERBURY SPJ, 1999, LAND DEGRAD DEV, V10, P279 BEBBINGTON A, 1997, GEOGR J 2, V163, P189 BEBBINGTON A, 1999, ECON GEOGR, V75, P395 BLAIKIE P, 1987, LAND DEGRADATION SOC BLAIKIE PM, 1994, RISK NATURAL HAZARDS, V1, P1 BOSERUP E, 1965, CONDITIONS AGR GROWT BROOKFIELD HC, 1964, ECON GEOGR, V40, P283 BROOKFIELD HC, 1972, PAC VIEWPOINT, V13, P30 BROOKFIELD HC, 1984, PAC VIEWPOINT, V25, P15 BRYANT RL, 1997, 3 WORLD POLITICAL EC BRYK AS, 2002, HIERARCHICAL LINEAR BURTON I, 1978, ENV HAZARD, V1, P1 BUTZER KW, 1989, CULTURAL ECOLOGY CHAYANOV AV, 1966, THEORY PEASANT EC CHOWDHURY RR, 2003, THESIS CLARK U WORCE COOMES OT, 2000, ECOL ECON, V32, P109 CUTTER SL, 2001, AM HAZARDSCAPES REGI ELLEN R, 1982, ENV SUBSISTENCE SYST EVANS TP, 2001, ECOL MODEL, V143, P95 FORSYTH T, 2003, CRITICAL POLITICAL E FOX J, 1996, WORLD DEV, V24, P1089 GREENE WH, 2003, ECONOMETRIC ANAL GUBA EG, 1990, PARADIGM DIALOG GUNDERSON LH, 2002, PANARCHY UNDERSTANDI, V1, P1 GUTMAN G, 2004, LAND CHANGE SCI OBSE HAENN N, 1999, HUM ECOL, V27, P477 HAENN N, 2002, ETHNOLOGY, V41, P1 HEWITT K, 1983, INTERPRETATIONS CALA JONES N, 2005, INT J IMPACT ENG, V32, P2 KASPERSON JX, 2005, SOCIAL CONTOURS RISK, V1 KASPERSON JX, 2005, SOCIAL CONTOURS RISK, V2 KATES RW, 2001, SCIENCE, V292, P641 KATZ EG, 2000, LAND ECON, V76, P114 KENNEDY P, 1998, GUIDE ECONOMETRICS KEYS E, 2004, LAND DEGRAD DEV, V15, P397 KLEPEIS P, 2001, LAND USE POLICY, V18, P27 KLEPEIS P, 2003, ECON GEOGR, V79, P221 KLOOSTER DJ, 2003, LAT AM RES REV, V38, P94 LANEY RM, 2002, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V92, P702 LAWRENCE D, 2002, INTERCIENCIA, V27, P1 LAWRENCE D, 2004, ECOSYSTEMS LAND USE, P277 LIBBY LW, 2003, AM J AGR ECON, V85, P1194 LIVERMAN DM, 1999, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V89, P107 LIVERMAN DM, 2004, GEOGRAPHY AM DAWN 21, P267 MARQUETTE CM, 1998, HUM ECOL, V26, P573 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 MCCRACKEN SD, 1999, PHOTOGRAMM ENG REM S, V65, P1311 MERTENS B, 2000, WORLD DEV, V28, P983 MITCHELL JK, 1989, GEOGRAPHY AM, P411 MOHAN G, 2002, PROG HUM GEOG, V26, P191 NETTING RM, 1993, SMALL HOLDERS HOUSEH PALDAM M, 2000, J ECON SURV, V14, P629 PAN WKY, 2005, GLOBAL PLANET CHANGE, V47, P232 PEET R, 1996, LIBERATION ECOLOGIES PEREZSALICRUP DR, 2001, TROPICAL ECOSYSTEMS, P63 PERRAULT T, 2004, GEOGR REV, V93, P328 PERZ SG, 2002, WORLD DEV, V30, P1009 PICHON FJ, 1997, ECON DEV CULT CHANGE, V45, P707 POLSKY C, 2001, AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON, V85, P133 PRETTY J, 2001, WORLD DEV, V29, P209 PRETTY J, 2003, SCIENCE, V302, P1912 PRIMACK RB, 1998, TIMBER TOURISTS TEMP QUIBRIA MG, 2003, ASIAN DEV REV, V280, P19 READ L, 2003, ECOL APPL, V13, P85 READ L, 2003, ECOSYSTEMS, V6, P747 ROBBINS P, 2004, POLITICAL ECOLOGY CR ROCHELEAU D, 1996, FEMINIST POLITICAL E RODRIGUEZ LC, 2004, ECOL ECON, V49, P243 RYDIN Y, 2004, LOCAL ENV, V9, P117 SIMMONS CS, 2004, J LATIN AM GEOGRAPHY, V3, P81 SNOOK LK, 1998, TIMBER TOURISTS TEMP, P61 STONE GD, 1996, SETTLEMENT ECOLOGY S TURNER BL, 1987, COMP FARMING SYSTEMS TURNER BL, 1996, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V93, P14984 TURNER BL, 2001, FOREST ECOL MANAG, V154, P343 TURNER BL, 2002, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V92, P52 TURNER BL, 2002, CHALLENGES CHANGING, P21 TURNER BL, 2003, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V100, P8074 TURNER BL, 2004, INTEGRATED LAND CHAN VANCE C, 2002, AGR ECON, V27, P317 VASQUEZLEON M, 2004, HUM ORGAN, V63, P21 VAYDA AP, 1999, HUM ECOL, V27, P167 WALKER PA, 2005, PROG HUM GEOG, V29, P73 WALKER R, 1996, ECOL ECON, V18, P1 WALKER R, 2002, INT REGIONAL SCI REV, V25, P169 WATS M, 1996, LIBERATION ECOLOGIES, P260 WATTS M, 1983, INTERPRETATIONS CALA, P231 WATTS MJ, 1983, SILENT VIOLENCE FOOD ZELLNER A, 1962, J AM STAT ASSOC, V57, P348 ZELLNER A, 1963, J AM STAT ASSOC, V58, P977 ZIMMERER KS, 1969, CONCEPTS HUMAN GEOGR, P161 ZIMMERER KS, 2003, POLITICAL ECOLOGY IN ZIMMERER KS, 2004, PROG HUM GEOG, V28, P795 NR 103 TC 0 J9 ANN ASSN AMER GEOGR BP 302 EP 322 PY 2006 PD JUN VL 96 IS 2 GA 047HV UT ISI:000237871300004 ER PT J AU Lambin, EF Geist, HJ Lepers, E TI Dynamics of land-use and land-cover change in tropical regions SO ANNUAL REVIEW OF ENVIRONMENT AND RESOURCES LA English DT Review C1 Univ Louvain, Dept Geog, B-1348 Louvain, Belgium. Univ Louvain, Dept Geog, LUCC Int Project Off, B-1348 Louvain, Belgium. RP Lambin, EF, Univ Louvain, Dept Geog, Pl Louis Pasteur 3, B-1348 Louvain, Belgium. AB We highlight the complexity of land-use/cover change and propose a framework for a more general understanding of the issue, with emphasis on tropical regions. The review summarizes recent estimates on changes in cropland, agricultural intensification, tropical deforestation, pasture expansion, and urbanization and identifies the still unmeasured land-cover changes. Climate-driven land-cover modifications interact with land-use changes. Land-use change is driven by synergetic factor combinations of resource scarcity leading to an increase in the pressure of production on resources, changing opportunities created by markets, outside policy intervention, loss of adaptive capacity, and changes in social organization and attitudes. The changes in ecosystem goods and services that result from land-use change feed back on the drivers of land-use change. A restricted set of dominant pathways of land-use change is identified. Land-use change can be understood using the concepts of complex adaptive systems and transitions. Integrated, place-based research on land-use/land-cover change requires a combination of the agent-based systems and narrative perspectives of understanding. We argue in this paper that a systematic analysis of local-scale land-use change studies, conducted over a range of timescales, helps to uncover general principles that provide an explanation and prediction of new land-use changes. 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1997, SCIENCE, V277, P494 WALKER R, 1996, ECOL ECON, V18, P67 WALKER R, 2000, WORLD DEV, V28, P683 WALKER R, 2002, INT REGIONAL SCI REV, V25, P169 WALSH SJ, 1999, PHOTOGRAMM ENG REM S, V65, P97 WALSH SJ, 2002, CHARACTERIZING MODEL, P187 WALSHMEYER S, 2002, LINKING PEOPLE PLACE WARRENRHODES K, 2001, AMBIO, V30, P429 WEINHOLD D, 1999, ECOL ECON, V31, P63 WIGGINS S, 1995, J INT DEV, V7, P807 WOODWELL GM, 1983, SCIENCE, V222, P1081 WUNDER S, 2000, ENC DEFORESTATION EX XU JC, 1999, MT RES DEV, V19, P123 YOUNG OR, 2002, I DIMENSIONS ENV CHA YOUNG PC, 1999, PROGR ENV SCI, V1, P3 ZENG N, 1999, SCIENCE, V286, P1537 NR 186 TC 1 J9 ANNU REV ENVIRON RESOUR BP 205 EP 241 PY 2003 VL 28 GA 801NN UT ISI:000220102700007 ER PT J AU Pretty, JN Noble, AD Bossio, D Dixon, J Hine, RE de Vries, FWTP Morison, JIL TI Resource-conserving agriculture increases yields in developing countries SO ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY LA English DT Article C1 Univ Essex, Dept Biol Sci, Colchester CO4 3SQ, Essex, England. Univ Essex, Ctr Environm & Soc, Colchester CO4 3SQ, Essex, England. Kasetsart Univ, Bangkok 10903, Thailand. CIMMYT, Impact Tergeting & Assessment Program, Mexico City 06600, DF, Mexico. Int Water Management Inst, Colombo, Sri Lanka. Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Atmospher Phys, Int Project Off Monsoon Asia Integrated Reg Study, Beijing, Peoples R China. RP Pretty, JN, Univ Essex, Dept Biol Sci, Wivenhoe Pk, Colchester CO4 3SQ, Essex, England. AB Despite great recent progress, hunger and poverty remain widespread and agriculturally driven environmental damage is widely prevalent. The idea of agricultural sustainability centers on the need to develop technologies and practices that do not have adverse effects on environmental goods and services, and that lead to improvements in food productivity. Here we show the extent to which 286 recent interventions in 57 poor countries covering 37 M ha (3% of the cultivated area in developing countries) have increased productivity on 12.6 M farms while improving the supply of critical environmental services. The average crop yield increase was 79% (geometric mean 64%). All crops showed water use efficiency gains, with the highest improvement in rainfed crops. Potential carbon sequestered amounted to an average of 0.35 t C ha(-1) y(-1). If a quarter of the total area under these farming systems adopted sustainability enhancing practices, we estimate global sequestration could be 0.1 Gt C y(-1). Of projects with pesticide data, 77% resulted in a decline in pesticide use by 71% while yields grew by 42%. Although it is uncertain whether these approaches can meet future food needs, there are grounds for cautious optimism, particularly as poor farm households benefit more from their adoption. 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Mississippi State Univ, Inst Clean Energy Technol, Starkville, MS 39762 USA. Mississippi State Univ, Dept Phys & Astron, Starkville, MS 39762 USA. RP Han, FXX, Mississippi State Univ, Dept Plant & Soil Sci, Starkville, MS 39762 USA. AB Atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) has increased from a preindustrial concentration of about 280 ppm to about 367 ppm at present. The increase has closely followed the increase in CO2 emissions from the use of fossil fuels. Global warming caused by increasing amounts of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere is the major environmental challenge for the 21st century. Reducing worldwide emissions of CO2 requires multiple mitigation pathways, including reductions in energy consumption, more efficient use of available energy, the application of renewable energy sources, and sequestration. Sequestration is a major tool for managing carbon emissions. In a majority of cases CO2 is viewed as waste to be disposed; however, with advanced technology, carbon sequestration can become a value-added proposition. There are a number of potential opportunities that render sequestration economically viable. In this study, we review these most economically promising opportunities and pathways of carbon sequestration, including reforestation, best agricultural production, housing and furniture, enhanced oil recovery, coalbed methane (CBM), and CO2 hydrates. Many of these terrestrial and geological sequestration opportunities are expected to provide a direct economic benefit over that obtained by merely reducing the atmospheric CO2 loading. Sequestration opportunities in 11 states of the Southeast and South Central United States are discussed. Among the most promising methods for the region include reforestation and CBM. The annual forest carbon sink in this region is estimated to be 76 Tg C/year, which would amount to an expenditure of $11.1-13.9 billion/year. Best management practices could enhance carbon sequestration by 53.9 Tg C/year, accounting for 9.3% of current total annual regional greenhouse gas emission in the next 20 years. Annual carbon storage in housing, furniture, and other wood products in 1998 was estimated to be 13.9 Tg C in the region. Other sequestration options, including the direct injection of CO2 in deep saline aquifers, mineralization, and biomineralization, are not expected to lead to direct economic gain. More detailed studies are needed for assessing the ultimate changes to the environment and the associated indirect cost savings for carbon sequestration. 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Univ Agr Sci Uppsala, Res Sch Ecol Land Use, Dept Rural Dev Studies, Uppsala, Sweden. RP Darnhofer, K, Univ Agr Sci, Inst Agr Econ, Peter Jordan Str 82, A-1190 Vienna, Austria. AB The concept of socio-ecological resilience is applied to agricultural systems in general and to the farm level in particular. Resilience has three defining characteristics: the amount of change the system can undergo while maintaining its functions and structures, the degree of self-organization, and the capacity for learning and adaptation. To assess the resilience of a farming system, various elements that can build resilience are identified. Using these elements, the paper assesses organic agriculture using the IFOAM Basic Standard. The analysis shows that organic farming has a number of promising characteristics building resilience. However, when analyzing the current development of organic farming practice in light of the effects of government regulation and market dynamics, there is a danger that this quality is lost. Therefore, conversion alone may not be enough to ensure farm resilience. The ability of organic farming to realize its resilience building potential will depend on the ability of the organic movement to adapt and learn from the current experiences. (C) 2003 by The Haworth Press, Inc. All rights reserved. CR *IFOAM, 2001, BAS STAND ORG PROD P ALLEN P, 2000, AGR HUM VALUES, V17, P221 ASSOULINE G, 2000, 7 EUR ROUNDT CLEAN P BERENTSEN PBM, 1998, BIOL AGRIC HORTIC, V16, P311 BERKES F, 1998, LINKING SOCIAL ECOLO, V1, P1 BUCK D, 1997, SOCIOL RURALIS, V37, P3 CAMPBELL H, 2001, SOCIOL RURALIS, V41, P21 CARPENTER SR, 2001, ECOSYSTEMS, V4, P765 COOMBES B, 1998, SOCIOL RURALIS, V38, P127 DELIND LB, 2000, HUM ORGAN, V59, P198 EDWARDSJONES G, 2001, AGR SYST, V67, P31 ELLIS F, 2000, RURAL LIVELIHOODS DI FOLKE C, 1998, LINKING SOCIAL ECOLO, CH16 FOLKE C, 2002, NAVIGATING SOCIAL EC, CH14 GOODMAN D, 2000, AGR HUMAN VALUES, V17, P215 GUNDERSON LH, 1995, BARRIERS BRIDGES REN, V1, P1 GUNDERSON LH, 2000, ANNU REV ECOL SYST, V31, P425 GUTHMAN J, 1998, ANTIPODE, V30, P135 GUTHMAN J, 2000, AGR HUM VALUES, V17, P257 HALL A, 2001, SOCIOL RURALIS, V41, P399 HANSEN B, 2001, AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON, V83, P11 HINTERBERGER F, 2000, 3 BIENN C EUR SOC EC HOLLING CS, 1996, ENG ECOLOGICAL CONST HOLLING CS, 1973, ANNUAL REV ECOLOGY S, V4, P1 HOLLING CS, 1994, POPULATION EC DEV EN, P79 HOLLING CS, 1996, CONSERV BIOL, V10, P328 HOLLING CS, 2001, ECOSYSTEMS, V4, P390 IKERD J, 1999, C ORG AGR SPEC PROD IKERD J, 2001, IN NAT ORG C 2001 OR JANSEN K, 2000, BIOL AGRIC HORTIC, V17, P247 JIGGINS J, 2000, INT J AGR RESOURCES, V1, P28 KIRCHMANN H, 2000, EUR J AGRON, V12, P145 LEGUILLOU G, 2000, ORGANIC FARMING GUID LEVIN SA, 1999, FRAGILE DOMINION COM MEPPEM T, 1998, ECOL ECON, V26, P121 MICHELSEN J, 2001, SOCIOL RURALIS, V41, P62 MORGAN K, 2000, GEOFORUM, V31, P159 OPPERMANN R, 2001, OKOLOGISCHER LANDAU PETERSON GD, 1998, ECOSYSTEMS, V1, P6 PRETTY J, 1997, NATURAL RESOURCES FO, V21, P247 PRETTY J, 1998, LIVING LAND AGR FOOD RIGBY D, 2001, AGR SYST, V68, P21 ROLING NG, 1998, FACILITATING SUSTAIN, P283 ROSSI R, 2000, AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON, V77, P53 SCHEFFER M, 2000, ECOSYSTEMS, V3, P451 SCHNEEBERGER W, 2002, AM J ALTERNATIVE AGR, V17, P24 STOLZE M, 2000, ECON POLICY, V6, A410 TOVEY H, 1997, SOCIOL RURALIS, V37, P21 VANDERLEEUW S, 2000, WORKSH SYST SHOCKS S VANDERLEEUW SE, 2000, WAY WIND BLOWS CLIMA, P357 VOGL C, 2001, C BUILD BRIDG TRAD K VONWIRENLEHR S, 2001, AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON, V84, P115 WAGNER A, 1999, BIOL PHILOS, V14, P83 NR 53 TC 0 J9 J SUSTAINABLE AGR BP 81 EP 97 PY 2003 VL 22 IS 3 GA 713HW UT ISI:000184852500008 ER PT J AU Ebi, KL Kovats, RS Menne, B TI An approach for assessing human health vulnerability and public health interventions to adapt to climate change SO ENVIRONMENTAL HEALTH PERSPECTIVES LA English DT Article C1 LLC, ESS, Alexandria, VA 22304 USA. London Sch Hyg & Trop Med, Dept Publ Hlth & Policy, London WC1, England. WHO, Reg Off Europe, European Ctr Environm & Hlth, Rome, Italy. RP Ebi, KL, LLC, ESS, 5249 Tancreti Lane, Alexandria, VA 22304 USA. AB Assessments of the potential human health impacts of climate change are needed to inform the development of adaptation strategies, policies, and measures to lessen projected adverse impacts. We developed methods for country-level assessments to help policy makers make evidence-based decisions to increase resilience to current and future climates, and to provide information for national communications to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. The steps in an assessment should include the following: a) determine the scope of the assessment; b) describe the current distribution and burden of climate-sensitive health determinants and outcomes; c) identify and describe current strategies, policies, and measures designed to reduce the burden of climate-sensitive health determinants and outcomes; a) review the health implications of the potential impacts of climate variability and change in other sectors; e) estimate the future potential health impacts using scenarios of future changes in climate, socioeconomic, and other factors; f) synthesize the results; and g) identify additional adaptation policies and measures to reduce potential negative health impacts. Key issues for ensuring that an assessment is informative, timely, and useful include stakeholder involvement, an adequate management structure, and a communication strategy. CR *NRC, 1989, IMPR RISK COMM *UNFCCC, 2005, UN NAT FRAM CONV CLI ALBRITTON DL, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, P21 ARNELL NW, 2004, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V14, P3 BULTO PLO, 2006, ENVIRON HEALTH PERSP, V114, P1942 CAMPBELLLENDRUM D, 2006, ENVIRON HEALTH PERSP, V114, P1935 CASIMIRO E, 2006, ENVIRON HEALTH PERSP, V114, P1950 EBI KL, 2004, B AM METEOROL SOC, V85, P1067 EBI KL, 2006, ENVIRON HEALTH PERSP, V114, P1957 FURGAL C, 2006, ENVIRON HEALTH PERSP, V114, P1964 HULME M, 2002, CLIMATE CHANGE SCENA KOVATS RS, 2003, CLIMATE CHANGE HUMAN, P181 KOVATS RS, 2003, ENV CHANGE SERIES, V1 KOVATS RS, 2003, LANCET, V361, P1481 LIM B, 2004, ADAPTATION POLICY FR MCMICHAEL AJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, P451 MOSS RH, 2000, GUIDANCE PAPERS CROS, P33 NAKICENOVIC N, 2000, EMISSIONS SCENARIOS ONEILL MS, 2003, AM J EPIDEMIOL, V157, P1074 PATZ JA, 2005, NATURE, V438, P310 SCHERAGA JD, 2003, CLIMATE CHANG HUMAN, P237 SMIT B, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, P877 WILLOWS RI, 2003, CLIMATE ADAPTATION R YOHE GW, 2005, INTEGRATION PUBLIC H, P18 NR 24 TC 1 J9 ENVIRON HEALTH PERSPECT BP 1930 EP 1934 PY 2006 PD DEC VL 114 IS 12 GA 112BN UT ISI:000242500200043 ER PT J AU Yarnal, B Neff, R TI Whither parity? The need for a comprehensive curriculum in human-environment geography SO PROFESSIONAL GEOGRAPHER LA English DT Article C1 Penn State Univ, Ctr Integrated Reg Assessment, University Pk, PA 16802 USA. Penn State Univ, Dept Geog, University Pk, PA 16802 USA. RP Yarnal, B, Penn State Univ, Ctr Integrated Reg Assessment, University Pk, PA 16802 USA. AB If human-environment geography is central to the discipline, then human-environment courses should be a sizable segment of the undergraduate curriculum. Undergraduate educational offerings are inadequate, however, meaning that geography departments are shortchanging their majors, missing opportunities to attract and inform the general student body, and failing to meet the needs of future K-12 educators. Unless geography provides satisfactory human-environment education, it will likely have much less impact on twenty-first-century environmental science. CR *AAG, 2003, AAG NEWSLETTER, V38, P1 *AAG, 2003, GUID GEOGR PROGR N A *ENV PERC BEH GEOG, MISS STAT *MILL EC ASS, 2003, EC HUM WELL BEING FR *NAT RES COUNC, 1999, OUR COMM JOURN TRANS *NAT RES COUNC, 2001, GRAND CHALL ENV SCI *NSF ACERE, 2003, COMPL ENV SYST SYNTH *UN C ENV DEV, 1992, AG 21 PROGR ACT SUST BEDNARZ SW, 1994, GEOGRAPHY LIFE NATL CLARK WC, 2003, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V100, P8059 DIDUCK AP, 1997, CAN GEOGR-GEOGR CAN, V41, P294 EMEL J, 1989, NEW MODELS GEOGRAPHY, P49 GAILLE GL, 2004, GEOGRAPHY AM TURN 21 GOUDIE AS, 1986, T I BRIT GEOGR, V11, P454 HUCKLE J, 2002, GEOGRAPHY 1, V87, P64 LIVINGSTONE D, 2000, J GEOGRAPHY HIGHER E, V26, P217 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 MCKEOWNICE R, 2000, J ENVIRON EDUC, V32, P4 MCKEOWNICE R, 2002, ED SUSTAINABLE DEV T METZ B, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 RAVEN PH, 2002, SCIENCE, V297, P954 SACHS W, 1993, GLOBAL ECOLOGY NEW A, P3 SCHELLNHUBER HJ, 1998, EARTH SYSTEM ANAL IN SMITH N, 1989, NEW MODELS GEOGRAPHY, P142 STERN PC, 1992, GLOBAL ENV CHANGE UN STODDART DR, 1987, T I BRIT GEOGR, V12, P327 TURNER BL, 2002, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V92, P52 WARF B, 1999, PROF GEOGR, V51, P586 WILBANKS TJ, 1999, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V43, P601 NR 29 TC 0 J9 PROF GEOGR BP 28 EP 36 PY 2004 PD FEB VL 56 IS 1 GA 766EY UT ISI:000188354800005 ER PT J AU HELBLING, J TI ECOLOGY AND POLITICS IN NONSTATE SOCIETIES SO KOLNER ZEITSCHRIFT FUR SOZIOLOGIE UND SOZIALPSYCHOLOGIE LA German DT Article RP HELBLING, J, UNIV ZURICH,ETHNOL SEMINAR,FREIENSTEINSTR 5,CH-8032 ZURICH,SWITZERLAND. AB According to widespread common sense, members of non-state societies do not overuse the natural resources on which they rely. This position is partially supported by functionalist ecology according to which institutions contribute to a homoeostatic equilibrium of the local groups' ecosystems. However, if one takes into consideration not only the conditions under which a society reproduces in a natural environment but also the maximizing strategies of local groups, another thesis results. Whereas among hunters-and-gatherers the maximizing of an economic advantage (i.e. netto yield in production) prevents a damage of the natural environment, among warlike shifting cultivators maximization of political advantages (such as power, prestige and military strength) leads to an unintentional damage of the natural environment. 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Preliminary results from the Machiguenga of the Peruvian Amazon SO RATIONALITY AND SOCIETY LA English DT Article C1 Wissenschaftskolleg Berlin, D-14193 Berlin, Germany. RP Smith, N, Wissenschaftskolleg Berlin, Wallotstr 19, D-14193 Berlin, Germany. AB Contrary to the widespread belief that indigenous peoples are adept managers of their natural environments, preliminary research from the Machiguenga of the Peruvian Amazon indicates that this may not be the case. In an attempt to identify whether the Machiguenga in the village of Camisea conserve natural resources, the group was studied in relation to resource use, perceptions of the environment, and their understanding of population biology. Cultural characteristics were examined as well, such as social sanctioning and awareness of the behaviors of others in the group, both of which may be necessary for group-level conservation. It was found that the Machiguenga lack the social structure and cognitive models needed for sustainable resource use - although, given the particular cultural and economic history of the group, these elements made good adaptive sense. 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Ben Gurion Univ Negev, Jacob Blaustein Inst Desert Res, Dept Solar Energy & Environm Phys, IL-84105 Beer Sheva, Israel. Ben Gurion Univ Negev, Dept Ind Engn & Management, IL-84990 Sede Boqer, Israel. RP Zemel, A, Ben Gurion Univ Negev, Jacob Blaustein Inst Desert Res, Dept Solar Energy & Environm Phys, Sede Boker Campus, IL-84990 Sede Boqer, Israel. AB Welfare measures under threats of environmental catastrophes are studied using the "parable" apparatus of Weitzman and Lofgren [On the welfare significance of green accounting as taught by parable, J. Environ. Econ. Manage. 32 (1997) 139-153]. The occurrence probability of the catastrophic events is driven (at least partly) by anthropogenic activities such as natural resource exploitation. Without external effects, the green NNP is a genuine welfare measure vis-a-vis a particular parable economy. Often, however, the occurrence hazard constitutes a public bad, treated as an externality by agents who ignore their own contribution to its accumulation. In such cases the green NNP, although accounting for the event hazard rate per se, fails to properly internalize future effects on the hazard rate of current economic activities and as a result overestimates welfare. The bias term associated with the green NNP is derived and expressed in a simple and interpretable form. (c) 2006 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. CR MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 ARONSSON T, 1996, SCAND J ECON, V98, P185 ARONSSON T, 2004, WELFARE MEASUREMENT ARRONSON T, 1998, ENVIRON RESOUR ECON, V11, P117 ASHEIM GB, 1997, SCAND J ECON, V99, P355 ASHEIM GB, 2001, ECON LETT, V73, P233 ASHEIM GB, 2001, J ENVIRON ECON MANAG, V41, P252 ASHEIM GB, 2004, SCAND J ECON, V106, P361 CLARKE HR, 1994, J ECON DYN CONTROL, V18, P991 CROPPER ML, 1976, J ENVIRON ECON MANAG, V3, P1 DASGUPTA P, 2003, ENVIRON RESOUR ECON, V26, P499 FISHER AC, 2003, ENVIRON RESOUR ECON, V25, P395 HARTWICK JM, 1990, J PUBLIC ECON, V43, P291 HAYHOE K, 2004, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V101, P12422 LIMBURG KE, 2002, ECOL ECON, V41, P409 LUCAS R, 1998, J MONETARY ECON, V22, P3 MALER KG, 1991, ENVIRON RESOUR ECON, V1, P1 MALER KG, 2000, EUR ECON REV, V44, P645 MICHEL P, 1982, ECONOMETRICA, V50, P975 TSUR Y, 1994, NATURAL RESOURCE MOD, V8, P389 TSUR Y, 1996, J ECON DYN CONTROL, V20, P1289 TSUR Y, 1998, J ECON DYN CONTROL, V22, P967 TSUR Y, 2005, FRONTIERS BIODIVERSI WEITZMAN ML, 1976, Q J ECON, V90, P156 WEITZMAN ML, 1997, J ENVIRON ECON MANAG, V32, P139 WEITZMAN ML, 1997, SCAND J ECON, V99, P1 WEITZMAN ML, 2000, ENVIRON DEV ECON, V5, P55 WEITZMAN ML, 2001, SCAND J ECON, V103, P1 WEITZMAN ML, 2003, INCOME CAPITAL MAXIM NR 29 TC 0 J9 J ENVIRON ECON MANAGE BP 421 EP 429 PY 2006 PD JUL VL 52 IS 1 GA 066ID UT ISI:000239222000004 ER PT J AU Mortimore, MJ Adams, WM TI Farmer adaptation, change and 'crisis' in the Sahel SO GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS LA English DT Article C1 African Drylands Res, Crewkerne TA18 7LG, Somerset, England. Univ Cambridge, Dept Geog, Cambridge CB2 3EN, England. RP Mortimore, MJ, African Drylands Res, 17 Mkt Sq, Crewkerne TA18 7LG, Somerset, England. AB Perceptions of a continuing crisis in managing Sahelian resources are rooted in five dimensions of the Sahel Drought of 1972-1974 as it was understood at the time: crises in rainfall (drought), food supply, livestock management, environmental degradation, and household coping capabilities. A closer examination of household livelihood and farming systems shows that adaptive strategies have been evolved in response to each of these imperatives. Illustrations are provided from recent research in north-east Nigeria. A systematic understanding of indigenous adaptive capabilities can provide a basis for policies enabling a reduction of dependency on aid assistance in the Sahel. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. 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New Hope Environm Serv, Charlottesville, VA 22903 USA. Cato Inst, Washington, DC 20001 USA. Univ Virginia, Dept Hlth Evaluat Sci, Sch Med, HSC, Charlottesville, VA 22908 USA. RP Davis, RE, Univ Virginia, Dept Environm Sci, POB 400123, Charlottesville, VA 22904 USA. AB Human mortality in US cities is highest on extremely hot, humid summer days, but in general, winter-mortality rates are significantly higher than summer rates. The observed winter-dominant warming pattern, which has been linked to increasing greenhouse-gas concentrations, has led some researchers to propose future mortality decreases, while others contend that increasing heat-related mortality in summer will more than offset any winter-mortality reductions. Because winter mortality is only weakly linked to daily weather, we examine the seasonality of mortality using monthly data for 28 major US cities from 1964 to 1998. Daily all-causes mortality counts are age-standardized, aggregated monthly, and related to mean monthly 07:00 h local standard time (LST) air temperature in each city. The climate-mortality seasonality patterns are examined for spatial and temporal (decadal-scale) variability, and the impact of climate change on mortality rates is investigated after an approximation of the inherent technology/adaptation trend is removed from the monthly time series. Mortality seasonality varies little between most US cities with comparable climates. By the 1990s, monthly mortality anomalies were similar between all cities regardless of climate, suggesting there is no net mortality benefit to be derived from a location's climate. After removing the impact of long-term declining mortality rates, some statistically significant monthly climate-mortality relationships remain in most cities, with generally positive temperature-mortality relationships in summer and negative relationships in winter. Future mortality could be reduced with a winter-dominant warming but increase with pronounced summer warming. In each case, however, net future climate-related mortality rates are very low relative to the baseline death rate, indicating that climate change will have little impact in defining future mortality patterns in US cities. CR *NAT ASS SYNTH TEA, 1998, COMPR MORT FIL *NAT ASS SYNTH TEA, 2000, CLIM CHANG IMP US PO *NAT CLIM DAT CTR, 1993, SOL MET SURF OBS NET *NAT CLIM DAT CTR, 1997, HOURL US WEATH OBS 1 *NAT ENV SAT DAT I, 2000, TD 3280 US SURF AIRW *US BUR CENS, 1973 1982 92 2001 GE ANDERSON RN, 1998, NATL VITAL STAT REPO, V47 APPLEGATE WB, 1981, J AM GERIATR SOC, V29, P337 AULICIEMS A, 1989, INT J BIOMETEOROL, V33, P215 BENTHAM CG, 1997, EC IMPACTS HOT SUMME, P87 BLUESTEIN M, 1999, B AM METEOROL SOC, V80, P1893 BRIDGER CA, 1976, ENVIRON RES, V12, P38 CESARIO SK, 2002, JOGNN, V31, P526 CHANGNON SA, 1996, B AM METEOROL SOC, V77, P1496 DANET S, 1999, CIRCULATION, V100, E1 DAVIS RE, 2002, CLIMATE RES, V22, P175 DAVIS RE, 2003, ENVIRON HEALTH PERSP, V111, P1712 DAVIS RE, 2003, INT J BIOMETEOROL, V47, P166 DONALDSON GC, 1997, J EPIDEMIOL COMMUN H, V51, P643 DONALDSON GC, 1998, BRIT MED J, V317, P978 ENG H, 1998, J CARDIOVASC RISK, V5, P89 FROST DB, 1993, INT J BIOMETEOROL, V37, P46 GLASS R, 1979, LANCET, V3, P485 GORJANC ML, 1999, AM J EPIDEMIOL, V149, P1152 GOVER M, 1938, PUBLIC HLTH REP, V53, P1122 GUEST CS, 1999, CLIMATE RES, V13, P1 HAYDEN BP, 1998, PHILOS T ROY SOC B, V352, P5 HOUGHTON JT, 2001, 3 IPCC KALKSTEIN LS, 1989, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V79, P44 KALKSTEIN LS, 1993, EXPERIENTIA, V49, P969 KALKSTEIN LS, 1993, LANCET, V342, P1397 KALKSTEIN LS, 1997, ENVIRON HEALTH PERSP, V105, P84 KALNAY E, 2003, NATURE, V423, P528 KEATINGE WR, 1997, LANCET, V349, P1341 KILBOURNE EM, 1997, PUBLIC HLTH CONSEQUE, P245 KLONER RA, 1999, CIRCULATION, V100, P1630 KUNST AE, 1993, AM J EPIDEMIOL, V137, P331 LANGFORD IH, 1995, INT J BIOMETEOROL, V38, P141 LANSKA DJ, 1999, NEUROLOGY, V52, P984 LARSEN U, 1990, INT J BIOMETEOROL, V34, P136 LARSEN U, 1990, SOC BIOL, V37, P172 LASCHEWSKI G, 2002, CLIMATE RES, V21, P91 LERCHL A, 1998, INT J BIOMETEOROL, V42, P84 LYSTER WR, 1976, LANCET, V2, P469 MARMOR M, 1975, ARCH ENVIRON HEALTH, V30, P130 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 MCGREGOR GR, 1999, CLIMATE RES, V13, P17 MCGREGOR GR, 2001, INT J BIOMETEOROL, V45, P133 MCGREGOR GR, 2004, CLIMATE RES, V25, P253 MICHAELS PJ, 1998, CLIMATE RES, V10, P27 MICHAELS PJ, 2000, SATANIC GASES CLEARI MOORE TG, 1998, ECON INQ, V36, P471 OECHSLI FW, 1970, ENVIRON RES, V3, P277 OSCZEVSKI RJ, 1995, ARCTIC, V48, P372 PELL JP, 1999, QJM-MON J ASSOC PHYS, V92, P689 QUAYLE RG, 1998, WEATHER FORECAST, V13, P1187 SAKAMOTOMOMIYAM.M, 1977, SEASONALITY HUMAN MO SCHUMAN SH, 1964, JAMA-J AM MED ASSOC, V180, P131 SCHUMAN SH, 1972, ENVIRON RES, V5, P59 SERETAKIS D, 1997, JAMA-J AM MED ASSOC, V278, P1012 SIMONSEN L, 1997, AM J PUBLIC HEALTH, V87, P1944 SMOYER KE, 1993, THESIS U DELAWARE NE SMOYER KE, 2000, INT J BIOMETEOROL, V44, P190 STEADMAN RG, 1971, J APPL METEOROL, V10, P674 THOMPSON WW, 2003, JAMA-J AM MED ASSOC, V289, P179 NR 65 TC 0 J9 CLIMATE RES BP 61 EP 76 PY 2004 PD APR 19 VL 26 IS 1 GA 830AY UT ISI:000222095200006 ER PT J AU OBrien, KL Sygna, L Haugen, JE TI Vulnerable or resilient? A multi-scale assessment of climate impacts and vulnerability in Norway SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 Univ Oslo, CICERO, N-0318 Oslo, Norway. Norwegian Meteorol Inst, N-0313 Oslo, Norway. RP OBrien, KL, Univ Oslo, CICERO, POB 1129, N-0318 Oslo, Norway. AB This paper explores the issue of climate vulnerability in Norway, an affluent country that is generally considered to be resilient to the impacts of climate change. In presenting a multiscale assessment of climate change impacts and vulnerability in Norway, we show that the concept of vulnerability depends on the scale of analysis. Both exposure and the distribution of climate sensitive sectors vary greatly across scale. So do the underlying social and economic conditions that influence adaptive capacity. These findings question the common notion that climate change may be beneficial for Norway, and that the country can readily adapt to climate change. As scale differences are brought into consideration, vulnerability emerges within some regions, localities, and social groups. To cope with actual and potential changes in climate and climate variability, it will be necessary to acknowledge climate vulnerabilities at the regional and local levels, and to address them accordingly. This multi-scale assessment of impacts and vulnerability in Norway reinforces the importance of scale in global change research. 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Meteorol Serv Canada, Toronto, ON, Canada. UNDP GEF, Natl Commun Support Programme, New York, NY USA. UNFCCC Secretariat, Bonn, Germany. Univ E Anglia, Sch Dev Studies, Norwich, Norfolk, England. Univ E Anglia, Tyndall Ctr Climate Change Res, Norwich, Norfolk, England. RP Huq, S, Int Inst Environm & Dev, Climate Change Programme, 3 Endsleigh St, London WC1H 0DD, England. AB Under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), adaptation has recently gained importance, yet adaptation is much less developed than mitigation as a policy response. Adaptation research has been used to help answer to related but distinct questions. (1) To what extent can adaptation reduce impacts of climate change? (2) What adaptation policies are needed, and how can they best be developed, applied and funded? For the first question, the emphasis is on the aggregate value of adaptation so that this may be used to estimate net impacts. An important purpose is to compare net impacts with the costs of mitigation. In the second question, the emphasis is on the design and prioritisation of adaptation policies and measures. While both types of research are conducted in a policy context, they differ in their character, application, and purpose. The impacts/mitigation research is orientated towards the physical and biological science of impacts and adaptation, while research on the ways and means of adaptation is focussed on the social and economic determinants of vulnerability in a development context. The main purpose of this paper is to demonstrate how the national adaptation studies carried under the UNFCCC are broadening the paradigm, from the impacts/mitigation to vulnerability/adaptation. For this to occur, new policy research is needed. While the broad new directions of both research and policy can now be discerned, there remain a number of outstanding issues to be considered. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *ENB, 2001, SUMMARY INTERREGIONA MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 *NCSP, 2000, WORKSH REP THEM REG *NCSP, 2000, WORKSH REP THEM WORK *UNEP, 2001, VULNERABILITY INDICE *WORLD BANK, 2000, 21104BD WORLD BANK R *WORLD BANK, 2000, AD CLIM CHANG CIT SE, V4 APUULI B, 2000, ENVIRON MONIT ASSESS, V61, P145 BURTON I, 2001, ADAPTATION POLICY FR CARTER TR, 1994, IPCC TECHNICAL GUIDE CLARK WC, 2000, ASSESSING VULNERABIL FEENSTRA JF, 1998, HDB METHODS CLIMATE HULME M, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE SO AF KELLY PM, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V47, P325 KLEIN RJT, 1999, AMBIO, V28, P182 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 OBRIEN KL, 2000, 200002 CICERO PARRY ML, 1998, CLIMATE IMPACT ADAPT RIBOT JC, 1996, CLIMATE VARIABILITY, V1, P1 ROSENZWEIG C, 1994, NATURE, V367, P133 SMIT B, 2001, IPCC 2 ASSESSMENT RE, CH18 SMITH JB, 2001, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V50, P1 WATSON RT, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, V1, P1 NR 23 TC 5 J9 CLIM POLICY BP 145 EP 159 PY 2002 PD SEP VL 2 IS 2-3 GA 626TB UT ISI:000179888400003 ER PT J AU Holman, IP Rounsevell, MDA Shackley, S Harrison, PA Nicholls, RJ Berry, PM Audsley, E TI A regional, multi-sectoral and integrated assessment of the impacts of climate and socio-economic change in the UK SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 Cranfield Univ, Inst Water & Environm, Cranfield MK43 0AL, Beds, England. Univ Catholique Louvain, B-1348 Louvain, Belgium. Univ Manchester, Tyndall Ctr Climate Change Res, Manchester, Lancs, England. Environm Change Inst, Oxford, England. Univ Southampton, Sch Civil Engn & Environm, Southampton, Hants, England. Silsoe Res Inst, Silsoe, Beds, England. RP Holman, IP, Cranfield Univ, Inst Water & Environm, Cranfield MK43 0AL, Beds, England. AB Policy makers and stakeholders are increasingly demanding impact assessments which produce policy-relevant guidance on the local impacts of global climate change. The 'Regional Climate Change Impact and Response Studies in East Anglia and North West England' (RegIS) study developed a methodology for stakeholder-led, regional climate change impact assessment that explicitly evaluated local and regional (sub-national) scale impacts and adaptation options, and cross-sectoral interactions between four major sectors driving landscape change (agriculture, biodiversity, coasts and floodplains and water resources). The 'Drivers-Pressure-State-Impact-Response' (DPSIR) approach provided a structure for linking the modelling and scenario techniques. A 5 x 5 km grid was chosen for numerical modelling input (climate and socio-economic scenarios) and output, as a compromise between the climate scenario resolution (10 x 10 km) and the detailed spatial resolution output desired by stakeholders. Fundamental methodological issues have been raised by RegIS which reflect the difficulty of multi-sectoral modelling studies at local scales. In particular, the role of scenarios, error propagation in linked models, model validity, transparency and transportability as well as the use of integrated assessment to evaluate adaptation options to climate change are examined. Integrated assessments will provide new insights which will compliment those derived by more detailed sectoral assessments. 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RP Blanco, AVR, Both ENDS, Strateg Cooperat, Nieuwe Keizersgracht 45, NL-1018 VC Amsterdam, Netherlands. AB Climate change is expected to lead to an increase in the number and strength of natural hazards produced by climatic events. This paper presents some examples of the experiences of community-based organisations (CBOs) and non-governmental organisations (NGOs) of variations in climate, and looks at how they have incorporated their findings into the design and implementation of local adaptation strategies. Local organisations integrate climate change and climatic hazards into the design and development of their projects as a means of adapting to their new climatic situation. Projects designed to boost the resilience of local livelihoods are good examples of local adaptation strategies. To upscale these adaptation initiatives, there is a need to improve information exchange between CBOs, NGOs and academia. Moreover, there is a need to bridge the gap between scientific and local knowledge in order to create projects capable of withstanding stronger natural hazards. CR *IPCC, 2001, CLIM CHANG 2001 SCI MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 BLANCO RAV, 2004, COMPREHENSIVE EVN PR GUPTA J, 1997, INT ENVIRON AFFAIR, V9, P289 JASANOFF S, 1997, THIRD WORLD Q, V18, P579 PIELKE RA, 1998, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V8, P159 SMIT B, 1999, MITIGATION ADAPTATIO, V4, P199 NR 7 TC 0 J9 DISASTERS BP 140 EP 147 PY 2006 PD MAR VL 30 IS 1 GA 017LA UT ISI:000235693900010 ER PT J AU Garcia-Gonzalo, J Peltola, H Briceno-Elizondo, E Kellomaki, S TI Changed thinning regimes may increase carbon stock under climate change: A case study from a Finnish boreal forest SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 Univ Joensuu, Fac Forestry, FI-80101 Joensuu, Finland. RP Garcia-Gonzalo, J, Univ Joensuu, Fac Forestry, POB 111, FI-80101 Joensuu, Finland. AB A physiological growth and yield model was applied for assessing the effects of forest management and climate change on the carbon (C) stocks in a forest management unit located in Finland. The aim was to outline an appropriate management strategy with regard to C stock in the ecosystem (C in trees and C in soil) and C in harvested timber. Simulations covered 100 years using three climate scenarios (current climate, ECHAM4 and HadCM2), five thinning regimes (based on current forest management recommendations for Finland) and one unthinned. Simulations were undertaken with ground true stand inventory data (1451 hectares) representing Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris), Norway spruce (Picea abies) and silver birch (Betula pendula) stands. Regardless of the climate scenario, it was found that shifting from current practices to thinning regimes that allowed higher stocking of trees resulted in an increase of up to 11% in C in the forest ecosystem. It also increased the C in the timber yield by up to 14%. Compared to current climatic conditions, the mean increase over the thinning regimes in the total C stock in the forest ecosystem due to the climate change was a maximum of 1%; but the mean increase in total C in timber yield over thinning regimes was a maximum of 12%. CR *METS VUOS, 2001, FINN STAT YB FOR BATTAGLIA M, 1998, FOREST ECOL MANAG, V102, P13 BENGTSSON J, 1993, NZ J FORESTRY SCI, V23, P380 CAJANDER AK, 1949, ACTA FOR FENN, V56, P69 CANNELL MGR, 1995, FORESTRY, V68, P35 CARTER T, 2002, UNDERSTANDING GLOBAL, P32 CHERTOV OG, 1997, ECOL MODEL, V94, P177 DEWAR RC, 1992, TREE PHYSIOL, V11, P49 DIAZBALTEIRO L, 2003, FOREST ECOL MANAG, V174, P447 ERHARD M, 2001, LONG TERM EFFECTS CL, P151 FARQUHAR GD, 1980, PLANTA, V149, P67 FINER L, 2003, FOREST ECOL MANAG, V174, P51 GARCIAGONZALO J, 2006, UNPUB ECOLOGICAL MOD GONCALVES JLM, 1994, SOIL BIOL BIOCHEM, V26, P1557 GRACE J, 2001, CARBON CYCLE, P609 HOUGHTON JT, 1990, CLIMATE CHANGE IPCC, P365 HOUGHTON JT, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, P881 HYNYNEN J, 1993, SCAND J FOR RES, V8, P326 HYNYNEN J, 2002, 835 FINN FOR RES I, P116 KARJALAINEN T, 1996, FOREST ECOL MANAG, V80, P113 KARJALAINEN T, 1996, J ENVIRON MANAGE, V47, P311 KARJALAINEN T, 1999, ENVIRON SCI POLICY, V2, P165 KARJALAINEN T, 2003, FOREST POLICY ECON, V5, P141 KAUPPI P, 2001, MITIGATION IPCC 3 AS, P302 KAUPPI PE, 1995, PLANT SOIL, V168, P633 KELLOMAKI S, 1993, FOREST ECOL MANAG, V59, P237 KELLOMAKI S, 1996, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V32, P423 KELLOMAKI S, 1997, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V37, P683 KELLOMAKI S, 1997, ECOL MODEL, V97, P121 KELLOMAKI S, 1997, FOREST ECOL MANAG, V94, P195 KELLOMAKI S, 2005, MANAGEMENT EUROPEAN, P33 KIRSCHBAUM MUF, 1995, SOIL BIOL BIOCHEM, V27, P753 KRAMER K, 2002, GLOBAL CHANGE BIOL, V8, P1 LANDSBERG JJ, 1997, FOREST ECOL MANAG, V95, P205 LASCH P, 1999, ENVIRON MODEL ASSESS, V4, P273 LEXER MJ, 2002, FOREST ECOL MANAG, V162, P53 LINDER S, 1987, POTENTIALS LIMITATIO, P180 LINDNER M, 2000, TREE PHYSIOL, V20, P299 LISKI J, 2001, CAN J FOREST RES, V31, P2004 LLOYD J, 1994, FUNCT ECOL, V8, P315 MAKELA A, 1997, FOREST SCI, V43, P7 MAKELA A, 2000, TREE PHYSIOL, V20, P289 MAKELA A, 2000, TREE PHYSIOL, V20, P347 MAKIPAA R, 1998, CHEMOSPHERE, V36, P1155 MAKIPAA R, 1998, FOREST ECOL MANAG, V108, P239 MAKIPAA R, 1999, CAN J FOREST RES, V29, P1490 MARKLUND LG, 1988, 45 SWED U AGR SCI DE, P73 MARLAND G, 1999, ENVIRON SCI POLICY, V2, P111 MASERA OR, 2003, ECOL MODEL, V164, P177 MATALA J, 2003, ECOL MODEL, V161, P95 MATALA J, 2005, UNPUB ECOLOGICAL MOD MEDLYN BE, 2001, NEW PHYTOL, V149, P247 MEDLYN BE, 2002, PLANT CELL ENVIRON, V25, P1167 MELILLO JM, 1993, NATURE, V363, P234 NABUURS GJ, 1995, CAN J FOREST RES, V25, P1157 NABUURS GJ, 2002, ECOLOGICAL INDICATOR, V1, P213 PARRY ML, 2000, ASSESSMENT POTENTIAL, P320 PETERJOHN WT, 1994, ECOL APPL, V4, P617 PUSSINEN A, 2002, FOREST ECOL MANAG, V158, P103 RAICH JW, 1992, TELLUS B, V44, P81 REINEKE LH, 1933, J AGRIC RES, V46, P627 SABATE S, 2002, FOREST ECOL MANAG, V162, P23 SANDS PJ, 2000, TREE PHYSIOL, V20, P383 SCHLAMADINGER B, 1996, FOREST ECOSYSTEMS FO, P217 SEELY B, 2002, FOREST ECOL MANAG, V169, P123 STRANDMAN H, 1993, ECOL MODEL, V70, P195 TALKKARI A, 1998, FOREST ECOL MANAG, V106, P97 THORNLEY JHM, 2000, TREE PHYSIOL, V20, P477 THORNLEY JHM, 2001, ANN BOT-LONDON, V87, P591 VONCAEMMERER S, 1981, PLANTA, V153, P376 VUCETICH JA, 2000, FOREST ECOL MANAG, V136, P135 WANG LD, 1996, CHINA NATL J NEW GAS, V2, P82 YRJOLA T, 2002, EUROPEAN FOREST I IN, V11, P1 NR 73 TC 0 J9 CLIMATIC CHANGE BP 431 EP 454 PY 2007 PD APR VL 81 IS 3 GA 142YJ UT ISI:000244686900010 ER PT J AU Maciver, DC Wheaton, E TI Tomorrow's forests: Adapting to a changing climate SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 Meteorol Serv Canada, Downsview, ON M3H 5T4, Canada. Saskatchewan Res Council, Saskatoon, SK S7N 2X8, Canada. RP Maciver, DC, Meteorol Serv Canada, 4905 Dufferin St, Downsview, ON M3H 5T4, Canada. AB Today's forests are largely viewed as a natural asset, growing in a climate envelope, which favors natural regeneration of species that have adapted and survived the variability's of past climates. However, human-induced climate change, variability and extremes are no longer a theoretical concept. It is a real issue affecting all biological systems. Atmospheric scientists, using global climate models, have developed scenarios of the future climate that far exceed the traditional climate envelope and their associated forest management practices. Not all forests are alike, nor do they share the same adaptive life cycles, feedbacks and threats. Much of tomorrow's forests will become farmed forests, managed in a pro-active, designed and adaptive envelope, to sustain multiple products, values and services. Given the life cycle of most forest species, forest management systems will need to radically adjust their limits of knowledge and adaptive strategies to initiate, enhance and plan forests in relative harmony with the future climate. Protected Areas (IUCN), Global Biosphere Reserves (UNESCO) and Smithsonian Institution sites provide an effective community-based platform to monitor changes in forest species, ecosystems and biodiversity under changing climatic conditions. CR *IPCC, 1997, IPCC ADAPTATION EXPE CARTER T, 1994, IPCC TECHNICAL GUIDE CARTER T, 1996, TECHNICAL GUIDELINES CHARLES C, 1998, NATURE, V394, P422 DALLMEIER E, 1992, LONG TERM MONITORING EBBESMEYER CC, 1990, P 7 ANN PAC CLIM WOR, V26, P115 GEDALOF Z, 1999, ADAPTATION LESSONS B, P49 GOULD SJ, 1977, EVER SINCE DARWIN HOLLING CS, 1994, EVERGLADES ECOSYSTEM, P741 MACIVER DC, 1998, ENVIRON MONIT ASSESS, V49, P177 MACIVER DC, 2000, P 14 AMS C BIOM AER SMIT B, 1999, MITIGATION ADAPTATIO, V4, P199 SMITHERS J, 1997, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V7, P129 STANKEY GH, 2001, TOO EARLY TELL TOO L WATSON RT, 1998, REGIONAL IMPACTS CLI, V1, P1 WATSON RT, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, V1, P1 WHEATON EE, 1999, MITIGATION ADAPTATIO, V4, P215 NR 17 TC 0 J9 CLIMATIC CHANGE BP 273 EP 282 PY 2005 PD MAY VL 70 IS 1-2 GA 942EG UT ISI:000230265100013 ER PT J AU Attri, SD Rathore, LS TI Simulation of impact of projected climate change on wheat in India SO INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY LA English DT Article C1 Natl Ctr Medium Range Weather Forecasting, Applicat Div, New Delhi 110003, India. Indian Meteorol Dept, New Delhi, India. RP Rathore, LS, Natl Ctr Medium Range Weather Forecasting, Applicat Div, Mausam Bhavan Complex,Lodi Rd, New Delhi 110003, India. AB The problem of global climate change due to natural processes and anthropogenic sources and its impacts on world food security in general and its regional impacts in particular have come to forefront of the scientific community in recent years. Though the uncertainty of projected climate change at the regional level is higher, it is still necessary to assess its impacts on crop productivity for formulating response strategies. Climate change scenarios projected by the middle of the current century, based on the latest studies, were created and the impacts of concurrent changes of temperature and CO2 on the growth, development and yields of wheat in northwest India were quantified using a state-of-the-art dynamic simulation model. Yield enhancements of the order of 29-37% and 16-28% under tainted and irrigated conditions respectively in different genotypes were observed under a modified climate (T-max + 1.0degreesC, T-min + 1.5degreesC, 2 x CO2). Any further increase beyond 3degreesC cancelled the beneficial impact of enhanced CO2. Adaptation measures to mitigate the potential impact of climate change included possible changes in sowing dates and genotype selection. Enhancement of sowing by 10 days in late-sown cultivars and delaying of sowing by 10 days in normally sown cultivars resulted in higher yields under a modified climate, whereas a reduction in yield was observed in the reverse strategies. Copyright (C) 2003 Royal Meteorological Society. CR ABROL YP, 1991, IMPACT GLOBAL CLIMAT ADAMS RM, 1999, AGR GLOBAL CLIMATE C AGGARWAL PK, 1994, SIMULATING EFFECTS C ATTRI SD, 1999, P NAT WORKSH DYN CRO, P201 ATTRI SD, 2000, THESIS GJU HISAR HAR ATTRI SD, 2001, MAUSAM, V52, P561 CURE JD, 1986, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V38, P127 CURRY RB, 1990, BSSG WORKSH CROP SIM DHIMAN SD, 1985, HAR AGR UNI J RES, V15, P158 GIFFORD RM, 1988, AGRICULTURE, P506 HARVEY LDD, 1992, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V21, P17 HOOGENBOOM G, 1991, T ASAE IRRIGATION DR HOUGHTON JT, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995 HOUGHTON JT, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 HUNDAL SS, 1992, ANN PROGR REPORT LAL M, 1996, CURR SCI INDIA, V71, P746 LAL M, 1998, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V89, P1 LAL M, 1998, TERR ATMOS OCEAN SCI, V9, P673 LAL M, 1999, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V93, P53 LAMB PJ, 1987, B AM METEOROL SOC, V68, P1116 MATHAUDA SS, 1994, CLIM CHANG RIC S IRR MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 MEARNS LO, 1997, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V35, P367 MERTZ B, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 MORISON JIL, 1987, STOMATAL FUNCTION, P229 PEART RM, 1989, POTENTIAL EFFECTS GL PITTOCK AB, 1994, NATURE, V371, P25 RITCHIE JT, 1998, UNDERSTANDING OPTION, P79 ROGERS HH, 1983, J ENVIRON QUAL, V12, P569 ROSENZWEIG C, 1994, INTRO122 US EPA ROSENZWEIG C, 1994, USA324 US EPA SAINI AD, 1987, INDIAN J AGR SCI, V57, P351 SINHA SK, 1991, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V16, P33 SINHA SK, 1993, INT CROP SCI, V1, P281 TSUJI GY, 1994, DSSAT V3 WARRICK RA, 1986, GREENHOUSE EFFECT CL, P393 WIGLEY TML, 1987, EUR WORKSH INT BIOCL, P3142 NR 37 TC 0 J9 INT J CLIMATOL BP 693 EP 705 PY 2003 PD MAY VL 23 IS 6 GA 683RK UT ISI:000183163200006 ER PT J AU Gaffin, SR Rosenzweig, C Xing, XS Yetman, G TI Downscaling and geo-spatial gridding of socio-economic projections from the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) SO GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS LA English DT Article C1 Columbia Univ, Ctr Climate Syst Res, New York, NY 10025 USA. CIESIN, Palisades, NY 10964 USA. RP Gaffin, SR, Columbia Univ, Ctr Climate Syst Res, 2880 Broadway, New York, NY 10025 USA. AB A database has been developed containing downscaled socio-economic scenarios of future population and GDP at country level and on a geo-referenced gridscale. It builds on the recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES), but has been created independently of that report. The SRES scenarios are derived from projected data on economic, demographic, technological and land-use changes for the 21st century in a highly aggregated form consisting of four 9 world regions. Since analysts often need socio-economic data at higher spatial resolutions that are consistent with GCM climate scenarios, we undertook linear downscaling to 2100 of population and GDP to the country level of the aggregated SRES socioeconomic data for four scenario families: A1, A2, B1, B2. Using these country-level data, we also generated geo-spatial grids at 1/4degrees resolution (similar to30 km at the equator) for population "density" (people/unit land area) and for GDP "density" (GDP/unit land area) for two time slices, 1990 and 2025. This paper provides background information for the databases, including discussion of the data sources, downscaling methodology, data omissions, discrepancies with the SRES report, problems encountered, and areas needing further work. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 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RP Demeritt, D, Univ London Kings Coll, Dept Geog, London WC2R 2LS, England. AB Drawing on results of a 2003 survey of environmental officers in every Local Authority (LA) in England and Wales, this paper assesses the reception and response of local government to the information being provided through the UK Climate Change Programme. Over three quarters of respondents (n = 184) felt they did not have access to the best information about the impacts of climate change on their areas. Although up-to-date information is freely available from a number of official Government sources, those official sources are not consulted as consistently as the media or as intensively as the internet, despite being consistently regarded as much more accurate, credible, and appropriate to LA needs. We interpret this apparent contradiction between LA officer confidence in official sources and their relatively infrequent use as a consequence, first, of technical-cognitive and practical-temporal difficulties accessing and understanding official sources of climate change information and, second, of concerns about the practical relevance of that information for the administrative functions of local government and thus for any meaningful response by LAs to climate change. Our survey recorded considerable levels of stress, cynicism, and futility among LA officials that not only complicate communication efforts but also call into question the central assumption of the UK Climate Change Programme that simply making more locally specific information about climate change impacts available will motivate appropriate action. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *DEFRA, 2001, COMM LEAD CLIM CHANG *DEP TRANSP LOC GO, 2001, LOC AUTH PARL CONST *DETR, 2000, CLIM CHANG UK PROGR *ESYS, 2000, HADL CTR REV FIN REP *IMPR DEV AG, 2002, NAT CENS LOC AUTH CO *LGA, 2002, CLIM CHANG SURV LOC *NOTT CIT COUNC, 2002, NOTT DECL *ROY COMM ENV POLL, 2002, ENV PLANN *UKCIP, 2002, UKCIP US FOR 8 9 MAY *UKCIP, 2003, CLIM CHANG LOC COMM *UKCIP, 2003, READ IMP INTR UK CLI *UKCIP, 2004, ONL AD GUID BAXTER J, 1997, T I BRIT GEOGR, V22, P505 BICKERSTAFF K, 2003, PROG HUM GEOG, V27, P45 COHEN SJ, 1990, B AM METEOROL SOC, V71, P520 CONNELLY J, 2003, POLITICS ENV THEORY DEY I, 1999, GROUNDING GROUNDED T EASTERLING WE, 1997, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V7, P337 FINK A, 1998, CONDUCT SURVEYS STEP FISCHHOFF B, 1981, ACCEPTABLE RISK HULME M, 2002, CLIMATE CHANGE SCENA IRWIN A, 1995, CITIZEN SCI STUDY PE JASANOFF S, 1998, HUMAN CHOICE CLIMATE, V1, P1 MORPHET J, 1998, BRIT ENV POLITICS EU SLOVIC P, 1993, RISK ANAL, V13, P675 WYNNE B, 1995, HDB SCI TECHNOLOGY S, P361 WYNNE B, 1996, RISK ENV MODERNITY N, P44 NR 27 TC 0 J9 GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANGE BP 325 EP 336 PY 2004 PD DEC VL 14 IS 4 GA 897NL UT ISI:000227010900004 ER PT J AU Epstein, PR TI Climate change and emerging infectious diseases SO MICROBES AND INFECTION LA English DT Review C1 Harvard Univ, Sch Med, Ctr Hlth & Global Environm, Boston, MA 02115 USA. RP Epstein, PR, Harvard Univ, Sch Med, Ctr Hlth & Global Environm, 260 Longwood Ave, Boston, MA 02115 USA. AB The ranges of infectious diseases and vectors are changing in altitude, along with shifts in plant communities and the retreat of alpine glaciers. Additionally, extreme weather events create conditions conducive to 'clusters' of insect-, rodent- and water-borne diseases. Accelerating climate change carries profound threats for public health and society. (C) 2001 Editions scientifiques et medicales Elsevier SAS. CR *CLIVAR, 1992, STUD CLIM VAR PRED *I MED, 1992, EM INF MICR THREATS *IFRC RCS, 1999, WORLD DIS REP *WHO, 1996, WORLD HLTH REP 1996 ALBRITTON DI, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 BARRY JP, 1995, SCIENCE, V267, P672 BOUMA MJ, 1997, LANCET, V350, P1435 CHECKLEY W, 2000, LANCET, V355, P442 COLWELL RR, 1996, SCIENCE, V274, P2025 DASZAK P, 2000, SCIENCE, V287, P443 DEARBORN DG, 1999, ENVIRON HEALTH PE S3, V107, P495 DIAZ HF, 1996, NATURE, V383, P152 DOBSON A, 1993, LANCET, V342, P1096 DUCHIN JS, 1994, NEW ENGL J MED, V330, P949 EASTERLING DR, 1997, SCIENCE, V277, P363 EASTERLING DR, 2000, SCIENCE, V289, P2068 ELIAS JA, 1994, QUATERNARY INSECTS T ENGELTHALER DM, 1999, EMERG INFECT DIS, V5, P87 EPSTEIN PR, 1992, AM J PREV MED, V8, P263 EPSTEIN PR, 1995, AM J PUBLIC HEALTH, V85, P168 EPSTEIN PR, 1997, BIODIVERSITY HLTH EPSTEIN PR, 1998, B AM METEOROL SOC, V79, P409 EPSTEIN PR, 1999, SCIENCE, V285, P347 EPSTEIN PR, 2000, SCI AM, V283, P50 GILL CA, 1920, INDIAN J MED RES, V8, P618 GILL CA, 1921, INDIAN J MED RES, V8, P633 HARVELL CD, 1999, SCIENCE, V285, P1505 HOUGHTON JT, 1996, INTERGOVERNMENTAL PA HURRELL JW, 2001, SCIENCE, V291, P603 IRION R, 2001, SCIENCE, V291, P1690 KARL TR, 1995, CONSEQUENCES, V1, P3 KARL TR, 1995, NATURE, V377, P217 KARL TR, 1997, SCI AM MAY, P78 KOVATS RS, 1999, WHOSDEPHE994 KRABILL W, 1999, SCIENCE, V283, P1522 KREBS CJ, 1995, SCIENCE, V269, P1112 KUMAR KK, 1999, SCIENCE, V284, P2156 LEAF A, 1989, NEW ENGL J MED, V321, P1577 LEESON HS, 1939, B ENTOMOL RES, V30, P103 LEVITUS S, 2000, SCIENCE, V287, P2225 LINDGREN E, 2000, ENVIRON HEALTH PERSP, V108, P119 LINTHICUM KJ, 1999, SCIENCE, V285, P397 MACKENZIE WR, 1994, NEW ENGL J MED, V331, P161 MANN ME, 1998, NATURE, V392, P779 MARTENS WJM, 1997, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V35, P145 MARTIN PH, 1995, AMBIO, V24, P200 MATOSSIAN MK, 1989, POISONS PAST MOLDS E MCARTHUR RH, 1972, GEOGRAPHICAL ECOLOGY MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 MCMICHAEL AJ, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE HUMAN MONATH TP, 1987, AM J TROP MED HYG, V37, S40 MOSLEYTHOMPSON E, 1997, ANN M ASS AM GEOGR F PARK JM, 1999, PEDIATRICS 3, V104, P827 PARMESAN C, 1999, NATURE, V399, P579 PASCUAL M, 2000, SCIENCE, V289, P1766 PATZ JA, 1996, JAMA-J AM MED ASSOC, V275, P217 PAULI H, 1996, WORLD RESOURCE REV, V8, P382 PETERS RL, 1991, GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANG PETIT JR, 1999, NATURE, V399, P429 REITER P, 1998, LANCET, V351, P839 REITER P, 2000, EMERG INFECT DIS, V6, P1 ROGERS DJ, 2000, SCIENCE, V289, P1763 ROSENZWEIG C, 1998, CLIMATE CHANGE GLOBA, P101 ROSENZWEIG C, 2000, IMPLICATIONS CLIMATE ROTHROCK DA, 1999, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V26, P3469 SEVERINGHAUS JP, 1998, NATURE, V391, P141 THOMPSON LG, 1993, GLOBAL PLANET CHANGE, V7, P145 TRENBERTH KE, 1996, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V23, P57 TRENBERTH KE, 1999, CONSEQUENCES, V5, P3 TUDHOPE AW, 2001, SCIENCE, V291, P1511 ZISKA LH, 2000, WORLD RESOURCE REV, V12, P449 ZUCKER JR, 1996, EMERG INFECT DIS, V2, P37 NR 72 TC 7 J9 MICROBES INFECT BP 747 EP 754 PY 2001 PD JUL VL 3 IS 9 GA 464JJ UT ISI:000170529200008 ER PT J AU Swart, RJ Robinson, JB Cohen, SJ TI Climate change and sustainable development: expanding the options SO CLIMATE POLICY LA English DT Article C1 Natl Inst Publ Hlth & Environm, IPCC Working Grp 3, RIVM, NL-3720 BA Bilthoven, Netherlands. Univ British Columbia, SDRI, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z2, Canada. Univ British Columbia, AIRG, Environm Canada, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z2, Canada. RP Swart, RJ, Natl Inst Publ Hlth & Environm, IPCC Working Grp 3, RIVM, POB 1, NL-3720 BA Bilthoven, Netherlands. AB Climate change and sustainable development have been addressed in largely separate circles in both research and policy. Nevertheless, there are strong linkages between the two in both realms. This paper focuses on the scientific linkages and discusses the opportunities they provide for integrated policy development, and the necessity to consider the risk of trade-offs. It is suggested that integration may not only provide new opportunities, but may even be a prerequisite for successfully addressing both issues. Since the feasibility of stabilising greenhouse gas concentrations is dependent on general socio-economic development paths, climate policy responses should be fully placed in the larger context of technological and socio-economic policy development rather than be viewed as an add-on to those broader policies. The arguments are supported by a range of examples for various economic sectors in the areas of both mitigation and adaptation, largely drawn from IPCC's Third Assessment Report. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *UNCED, 1992, AG 21 *UNEP, 2002, GLOB ENV OUTL, V3 *UNFCCC, 1992, UN FRAM CONV CLIM CH ABAZA H, 2002, IMPLEMENTING SUSTAIN ARNELL NW, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 BANURI T, 2001, SETTING STAGE CLIMAT BARKER T, 2001, SECTOR COSTS ANCILLA COHEN SJ, 1998, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V8, P341 GITAY H, 2001, ECOSYSTEMS THEIR GOO HARCOURT M, 1999, PLAN CANADA, V39, P12 HOURCADE JC, 2001, GLOBAL REGIONAL NATL KAUPPI P, 2001, TECHNOLOGICAL EC POT LEGGETT J, 1992, CLIMATE CHANGE 1992, P71 MARKANDYA A, 2002, CLIMATE CHANGE SUSTA MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 MCLEAN RF, 2002, COASTAL ZONES MARINE MCMICHAEL AJ, 2001, HUMAN HLTH METZ B, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 MOOMAW WR, 2001, TECHNOLOGICAL EC POT MORITA T, 2001, GREENHOUSE GAS EMISS MUNASINGHE M, 2001, INT J SUST DEV WORLD, V5, P1 NAKICENOVIC N, 2000, IPCC SPECIAL REPORT OLHOFF A, 2002, CLIMATE CHANGE SUSTA RAYNER S, 1998, HUMAN CHOICE CLIMATE RIP A, 1998, HUMAN CHOICE CLIMATE, V2, P327 ROBINSON JB, 1998, RECONCILING ECOLOGIC ROBINSON JB, 2000, INTEGRATING CLIMATE ROBINSON JB, 2001, INT J GLOBAL ENV ISS, V1, P130 ROBINSON JB, 2002, K HAMMOND LECT ENV E SHACKLEY S, 1995, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V5, P113 SHOVE E, 1998, HUMAN CHOICE CLIMATE, P271 SMIT B, 2001, ADAPTATION CLIMATE C THOMPSON M, 1998, HUMAN CHOICE CLIMATE, V1, P265 WATSON R, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 WATSON RT, 1998, PROTECTING OUR PLANE NR 35 TC 0 J9 CLIM POLICY BP S19 EP S40 PY 2003 VL 3 GA 761BN UT ISI:000187879500004 ER PT J AU Guo, QF Brandle, J Schoeneberger, M Buettner, D TI Simulating the dynamics of linear forests in Great Plains agroecosystems under changing climates SO CANADIAN JOURNAL OF FOREST RESEARCH-REVUE CANADIENNE DE RECHERCHE FORESTIERE LA English DT Article C1 Univ Nebraska, Sch Nat Resources, Lincoln, NE 68583 USA. Univ Nebraska, USDA, Natl Agroforestry Ctr, Rocky Mt Res Stn, Lincoln, NE 68583 USA. RP Guo, QF, US Geol Survey, 8711 37th St SE, Jamestown, ND 58401 USA. AB Most forest growth models are not suitable for the highly fragmented, linear (or linearly shaped) forests in the Great Plains agroecosystems (e.g., windbreaks, riparian forest buffers), where such forests are a minor but ecologically important component of the land mosaics. This study used SEEDSCAPE, a recently modified gap model designed for cultivated land mosaics in the Great Plains, to simulate the effects of climate change on the dynamics of such linear forests. We simulated the dynamics of windbreaks with different initial planting species richness and widths (light changes as the selected resulting factor) using current climate data and nested regional circulation models (RegCMs). Results indicated that (i) it took 70-80 simulation years for the linear forests to reach a steady state under both normal (present-day) and warming climates; (ii) warming climates would reduce total aboveground tree biomass and the spatial variation in biomass, but increase dominance in the linear forests, especially in the upland forests; (iii) linear forests with higher planting species richness and smaller width produced higher aboveground tree biomass per unit area; and (iv) the same species performed very differently with different climate scenarios, initial planting diversity, and forest widths. Although the model still needs further improvements (e.g., the effects of understory species should be included), the model can serve as a useful tool in modeling the succession of linear forests in human-dominated land mosaics under changing climates and may also have significant practical implications in other systems. CR *USDA NRCS, 1972, NAT ENG HDB HYDR BOTKIN DB, 1972, J ECOL, V60, P849 BOTKIN DB, 1993, FOREST DYNAMICS ECOL BUGMANN HKM, 1996, ECOLOGY, V77, P2055 BURKE IC, 1991, BIOSCIENCE, V41, P685 CHEN JQ, 1999, BIOSCIENCE, V49, P288 EASTERLING WE, 1996, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V80, P1 EASTERLING WE, 2001, ECOL MODEL, V140, P163 GIORGI F, 1993, MON WEATHER REV, V121, P2794 GIORGI F, 1993, MON WEATHER REV, V121, P2814 GIORGI F, 1998, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V40, P457 GUERTIN DS, 1997, BIOSCIENCE, V47, P287 GUO QF, 2000, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V10, P289 GUO QF, 2003, J VEG SCI, V14, P121 HANSON JS, 1990, ECOL MODEL, V49, P277 HUSTON M, 1987, AM NAT, V130, P168 JOHNSON WC, 1994, ECOL MONOGR, V64, P45 KNIGHT CL, 1994, LANDSCAPE ECOL, V9, P117 KORT J, 1988, AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON, V22, P165 KUPFER JA, 1993, PHYSICAL GEOGR, V14, P154 LEHMAN CL, 2000, AM NAT, V156, P534 LIU J, 1995, FOR ECOL MANAG, V75, P157 LIU JG, 1998, ECOL MODEL, V106, P177 MALANSON GP, 1996, ECOL MODEL, V87, P91 MATLACK GR, 1994, J ECOL, V82, P113 MCCANN KS, 2000, NATURE, V405, P228 OKUBO A, 1989, ECOLOGY, V70, P329 PRENTICE IC, 1993, ECOL MODEL, V65, P51 ROSENBERG DK, 1997, BIOSCIENCE, V47, P677 SHUGART HH, 1984, THEORY FOREST DYNAMI SHUGART HH, 1992, ANNU REV ECOL SYST, V23, P15 SOLOMON AM, 1986, OECOLOGIA, V68, P567 WATTERSON IG, 1995, AUST METEOROL MAG, V44, P111 NR 33 TC 0 J9 CAN J FOREST RES BP 2564 EP 2572 PY 2004 PD DEC VL 34 IS 12 GA 891QO UT ISI:000226595800016 ER PT J AU Thomson, AM Brown, RA Rosenberg, NJ Izaurralde, RC Benson, V TI Climate change impacts for the conterminous USA: An integrated assessment - Part 3. Dryland production of grain and forage crops SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 Joint Global Change Res Inst, College Pk, MD 20740 USA. Independent Project Anal, Reston, VA 20190 USA. Univ Missouri, Food & Agr Policy Res Inst, Columbia, MO 65201 USA. RP Thomson, AM, Joint Global Change Res Inst, 8400 Baltimore Ave,Suite 201, College Pk, MD 20740 USA. AB Here we simulate dryland agriculture in the United States in order to assess potential future agricultural production under a set of general circulation model (GCM)-based climate change scenarios. The total national production of three major grain crops - corn, soybeans, and winter wheat - and two forage crops - alfalfa and clover hay - is calculated for the actual present day core production area (CPA) of each of these crops. In general, higher global mean temperature (GMT) reduces production and higher atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration ([CO2]) increases production. Depending on the climatic change scenarios employed overall national production of the crops studied changes by up to plus or minus 25% from present-day levels. Impacts are more significant regionally, with crop production varying by greater than +/-50% from baseline levels. Analysis of currently possible production areas (CPPAs) for each crop indicates that the regions most likely to be affected by climate change are those on the margins of the areas in which they are currently grown. Crop yield variability was found to be primarily influenced by local weather and geographic features rather than by large-scale changes in climate patterns and atmospheric composition. Future US agronomic potential will be significantly affected by the changes in climate projected here. The nature of the crop response will depend primarily on to what extent precipitation patterns change and also on the degree of warming experienced. CR *NAST, 2000, CLIM CHANG IMP US PO *USDA NAT AGR STAT, 1997, AGR ATL US *USDA NAT AGR STAT, 2001, PUBL EST DAT YEARS 1 *WORLD AGR OUTL BO, 1994, MAJ WORLD CROP AR CL ADAMS RM, 1998, CLIMATE CHANGE US AG ALLEN LH, 1998, AGRON J, V90, P375 BLASING TJ, 1982, ORNL PUBLICATION, V2134 BOWES G, 1993, ANNU REV PLANT PHYS, V44, P309 BROWN RA, 1999, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V41, P73 BROWN RA, 1999, IMPACT CLIMATE CHANG GITAY H, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, P235 HOUGHTON JT, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 LUO QY, 1999, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V43, P729 MAKINO A, 1999, PLANT CELL PHYSIOL, V40, P999 MAROCO JP, 1999, PLANTA, V210, P115 MAVROMATIS T, 1998, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V91, P51 NEWMAN JE, 1982, IMPACTS RISING CAR 8, V2 PARRY ML, 1988, IMPACT CLIMATE VARIA PASSIOURA JB, 1996, AGRON J, V88, P690 REILLY JM, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, P429 REILLY JM, 2001, AGR POTENTIAL CONSEQ REILLY JM, 1999, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V43, P645 REILLY JM, 1999, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V43, P745 ROUNSEVELL MDA, 1999, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V43, P683 SMITH SD, 2000, NATURE, V408, P79 WILLIAMS JR, 1995, COMPUTER MODELS WATE, P909 NR 26 TC 3 J9 CLIMATIC CHANGE BP 43 EP 65 PY 2005 PD MAR VL 69 IS 1 GA 910UF UT ISI:000227957000004 ER PT J AU Wahba, M Hope, C TI The marginal impact of carbon dioxide under two scenarios of future emissions SO ENERGY POLICY LA English DT Article C1 Univ Toronto, Dept Civil Engn, Toronto, ON M5S 1A4, Canada. Univ Cambridge, Judge Inst Management, Management Studies Tripos & Diploma Programme, Cambridge CB2 1AG, England. RP Wahba, M, Univ Toronto, Dept Civil Engn, 35 St George St, Toronto, ON M5S 1A4, Canada. AB This paper uses the PAGE2002 model to calculate the marginal impact of carbon dioxide (CO2) under the A2 and B2 marker scenarios of the IPCC, and its distribution across regions, sectors, and over time. PAGE2002 considers the possibility of large-scale discontinuities, a major concern in the IPCC TAR. PAGE2002 estimates the mean value of the marginal impact for CO2 under scenario A2 to be $19 per tonne of carbon (tC), equivalent to $5 per tonne Of CO2. The 95% and 5% values for the marginal impact are $4/tC and $5/tC. The mean value under scenario B2 is estimated to be $14/tC, with 95% and 5% points as $41/tC and $3/tC, respectively. The marginal impact is sensitive to the pure rate of time preference, and doubles for a 1% reduction from 3% to 2%. Additionally, adaptation policy affects the marginal impact estimates; they increase by 50% if no adaptation policy is implemented. Benefits from reductions in greenhouse gas emissions will affect the globe as a whole, but with various regions being more affected than others. Developing countries would receive about 50% of the benefit, whereas the European Union's benefits would be about 7%; only about 2% of the benefits would be felt in the USA. Benefits from an immediate reduction in CO2 emissions peak a round the year 2100. About 60% of the benefits from reducing greenhouse gas emissions are non-economic, with economic and large-scale discontinuities being about 20% each. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 *IPCC, 2001, CLIM CHANG 2001 MIT BEIN P, 1999, P 3 BIENN C CAN SOC CLARKSON R, 2002, 140 DEP ENV FOOD RUR CLINE W, 1992, EC GLOBAL WARMING CLINE W, 1995, PRICING CARBON DIOXI EYRE N, 1997, GLOBAL WARMING DAMAG EYRE N, 1999, EXTERNALITIES ENERGY, V7, P101 HOPE C, IN PRESS MARGINAL IM HOPE C, 1993, ENERG POLICY, V21, P327 HOPE C, 2005, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V68, P21 MORITA T, 1999, EMISSIONS SCENARIO D NEWELL R, 2001, DISCOUNTING BENEFITS NORDHAUS WD, 1991, ECON J, V101, P920 NORDHAUS WD, 1992, SCIENCE, V258, P1315 PEARCE DW, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, P179 PLAMBECK E, 1995, 1994199514 U CAMBR J PLAMBECK EL, 1996, ENERG POLICY, V24, P783 PLAMBECK EL, 1997, ENERG ECON, V19, P77 SHOGREN T, 2000, 25 RES FUT TOL R, FNU19 HAMB U CTR MAR TOL R, 2000, D0008 VRIJ U I ENV S TOL R, 2001, SCG4 HAMB U RES UN S TOL R, 2002, AEA TECHNOLOGY QUANT TOL RSJ, 1999, ENERGY J, V20, P61 TOL RSJ, 2005, ENERG POLICY, V33, P2064 WAHBA M, 2003, THESIS CAMBRIDGE U NR 27 TC 0 J9 ENERG POLICY BP 3305 EP 3316 PY 2006 PD NOV VL 34 IS 17 GA 100CG UT ISI:000241644200060 ER PT J AU Olsson, P Folke, C TI Local ecological knowledge and institutional dynamics for ecosystem management: A study of Lake Racken Watershed, Sweden SO ECOSYSTEMS LA English DT Article C1 Stockholm Univ, Dept Syst Ecol, SE-10691 Stockholm, Sweden. Stockholm Univ, Ctr Res Nat Resources & Environm, SE-10691 Stockholm, Sweden. RP Olsson, P, Stockholm Univ, Dept Syst Ecol, SE-10691 Stockholm, Sweden. AB The sustainable use of resources requires that management practices and institutions take into account the dynamics of the ecosystem. In this paper, we explore the role of local ecological knowledge and show how it is used in management practices by a local fishing association in a contemporary rural Swedish community. We focus on the local management of crapfish, a common-pool resource, and also address the way crapfish management is linked to institutions at different levels of Swedish society, Methods from the social sciences were used for information gathering, and the results were analyzed within the framework of esosystem management. We found that the practices of local fishing association resemble an ecosystem approach to crayfish management. Our results indicate that local users have substantial knowledge of resource and ecosystem dynamics from the level of the individual crayfish to that of the watershed, as reflected in a variety of interrelated management practices embedded in and influenced by institutions at several levels. We propose that this policy of monitoring at several levels simultaneously, together with the interpretation of a bundle of indicators and associated management responses, enhances the possibility of building ecological resilience into the watershed. Furthermore, we found that flexibility and adaptation are required to avoid command-and-control pathways of resource management. We were able to trace the development of the local fishing association as a response to crisis, followed by the creation of an opportunity for reorganization and the recognition of slow ecosystem structuring variables, and also to define the role of knowledgeable individuals in the whole process. We discuss the key roles of adaptive capacity, institutional learning, and institutional memory for successful ecosystem management and conclude that scientific adaptive management could benefit from a more explicit collaboration with flexible community-based systems of resource management for the implementation of policies as experiments. 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No Savannah Project, Garoua, Cameroon. RP Pamo, ET, Univ Dschang, FASA Dept Anim Sci, POB 222, Dschang, Cameroon. AB Elephant protection in Northern Cameroon has led to serious concern over their impact on vegetation. The basic problems are related to the change in vegetation and land-use patterns. In addition, a dam was built to store water for a rice irrigation project in 1979 in Northern Cameroon. This dam prevents the normal flooding of the dry season grazing land for wildlife within and around the two major National Parks of the region and has led to a change in vegetation composition and structure. The habitat of an increased elephant population was reduced, along with a change in their migration patterns and their home range. This resulted in an adaptation of their feeding habits and competition for space with humans. The largest elephant population of the African Sahelo-Soudanian region has profoundly affected the vegetation of the Northern Cameroon during the past 20 years. From the various works carried out in the region it appears that the amount of seriously browsed trees increased as well as the damage indicted on the youngest trees. Although discussion on how to deal with elephant impact on vegetation and the risk of irreversible habitat change is being overshadowed in some areas by its impact on human population, the problem remains a key issue and must be faced if sustained environmental management at the turn of the millennium is to be addressed. Degradation may occur when productivity of these unstable communities has crossed a critical threshold that prevents its resiliency over a long term. Knowledge of the dynamics of this Sahelian vegetation does not permit to critically address the issue now in this fragile environment. (C) 2001 Academic Press. CR *SPTEN, 1986, RAP ANN ACT AV PROJ BARNES RFW, 1982, AFR J ECOL, V20, P123 BARNES RFW, 1983, BIOL CONSERV, V26, P127 CRAIG GC, 1992, ELEPHANT MANAGEMENT, P81 DEBIE S, 1991, THESIS AGR U WAGENIN DOUGLASHAMILTON I, 1987, ORYX, V21 DUBLIN HT, 1990, OECOLOGIA, V82, P283 EIJS AWM, 1987, SERIE ENV DEV NORD C ESSER JD, 1979, TERRE VIE, V33, P3 FIELD CR, 1971, E AFR WILDL J, V9, P99 FLIZOT P, 1962, RESERVES FAUNE CAMER FOWLER CW, 1973, J WILDLIFE MANAGE, V37, P513 FRY CH, 1970, REPORT INT UNION CON KABIGUMILA J, 1993, AFR J ECOL, V31, P156 LAWS RM, 1970, OIKOS, V21, P1 LAWS RM, 1975, ELEPHANTS THEIR HABI LINDSAY K, 1993, PACHYDERM, V16, P34 MAHAMAT H, 1991, MEMOIRE ETUDES MCCULLAGH KG, 1973, NATURE, V242, P267 MERZ G, 1986, AFR J ECOL, V24, P61 MOSS CJ, 1992, NCRR EL REPR S MAY 1 OIJEN CHJ, 1986, YAERES RELEVES DESCR OKULA JP, 1986, AFR J ECOL, V24, P1 PAMO ET, 1998, J ARID ENVIRON, V39, P179 PYKE GH, 1977, Q REV BIOL, V52, P137 ROTH HH, 1991, MAMMALIA, V55, P489 RUGGIERO RG, 1992, AFR J ECOL, V30, P137 RUGGIERO RG, 1992, AFR J ECOL, V30, P137 STEEHOUWER G, 1988, SERIE ENV DEV NORD C SUKUMAR R, 1990, J TROP ECOL, V6, P33 TCHAMBA MN, 1992, MAMMALIA, V92, P35 TCHAMBA MN, 1993, AFR J ECOL, V31, P165 TCHAMBA MN, 1993, PACHYDERM, V16, P66 TCHAMBA MN, 1995, AFR J ECOL, V33, P184 TCHAMBA MN, 1995, AFR J ECOL, V33, P335 TCHAMBA MN, 1995, AFR J ECOL, V33, P366 THOULESS C, 1992, EMERGENCY EVALUATION VANDERZON APM, 1986, PANDA, V22, P121 VANWIJNGAARDEN W, 1985, THESIS AGR U WAGENIN NR 39 TC 0 J9 J ARID ENVIRON BP 245 EP 253 PY 2001 PD JUL VL 48 IS 3 GA 447PA UT ISI:000169580600001 ER PT J AU AUSUBEL, JH TI TECHNICAL PROGRESS AND CLIMATIC-CHANGE SO ENERGY POLICY LA English DT Article RP AUSUBEL, JH, ROCKEFELLER UNIV,PROGRAM HUMAN ENVIRONM,1230 YORK AVE,NR 403,NEW YORK,NY 10021. AB The global warming debate has neglected and thus underestimated the importance of technical change in considering reduction in greenhouse gases and adaptation to climate change, Relevant quantitative cases of long-run technical change during the past 100 years are presented in computing, communications, transport, energy, and agriculture, A noteworthy technological trajectory is that of decarbonization, or decreasing carbon intensity of primary energy, If human societies have not yet reached the end of the history of technology, the cost structure for mitigation and adaptation changes could be cheap. CR *INT PAN CLIM CHAN, 1990, CLIM CHANG IPCC SCI *INT PAN CLIM CHAN, 1992, CLIM CHANG 1992 SUPP ANGELUCCI E, 1977, PRACTICAL GUIDE WORL AUSUBEL JH, 1988, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V12, P245 CERF C, 1984, EXPERTS SPEAK DEFINI DARMSTAEDTER L, 1908, HDB GESCHICHTE NATUR GREY CG, 1969, JANES ALL WORLDS AIR GRUBLER A, 1990, RISE FALL INFRASTRUC LLOYD S, 1993, SCIENCE, V261, P1569 LOTKA AJ, 1924, ELEMENTS PHYSICAL BI MARCHETTI C, 1979, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V15, P79 MARCHETTI C, 1980, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V18, P267 MENSCH G, 1979, STALEMATE TECHNOLOGY NORDHAUS WD, 1992, SCIENCE, V258, P1315 PATEL CKN, 1987, LASESR INVENTION APP STARR C, 1973, SCIENCE, V182, P358 TAYLOR JWR, 1984, JANES ALL WORLD AIRC WAGGONER PE, 1994, MUCH LAND CAN 10 BIL WORLTON J, 1988, SOME PATTERNS TECHNO NR 19 TC 4 J9 ENERG POLICY BP 411 EP 416 PY 1995 PD APR-MAY VL 23 IS 4-5 GA RT375 UT ISI:A1995RT37500016 ER PT J AU Gelcich, S Edwards-Jones, G Kaiser, MJ Castilla, JC TI Co-management policy can reduce resilience in traditionally managed marine ecosystems SO ECOSYSTEMS LA English DT Article C1 Univ Coll N Wales, Sch Agr & Forest Sci, Bangor LL57 2UW, Gwynedd, Wales. Univ Wales, Sch Ocean Sci, Bangor LL59 5AB, Gwynedd, Wales. Pontificia Univ Catolica Chile, Fac Ciencias Biol, Ctr Estudios Avanzados Ecol & Biodiversidad, Santiago, Chile. RP Gelcich, S, Univ Coll N Wales, Sch Agr & Forest Sci, Bangor LL57 2UW, Gwynedd, Wales. AB Best-practice environmental policy often suggests co-management of marine resources as a means of achieving sustainable development. Here we consider the impacts of superimposing co-management policy, in the form of territorial user rights for fishers over an existing traditional community-based natural-resource management system in Chile. We consider a broad definition of co-management that includes a spectrum of arrangements between governments and user groups described by different levels of devolution of power. We used participatory rural appraisal techniques and questionnaires to understand the mechanisms that underpin the traditional management system for the bull-kelp "cochayuyo" (Durvillaea antarctica). Traditional management was based on the allocation of informal access rights through a lottery system. This system was controlled by a complex web of traditional institutions that were shown to be successful in terms of equity and resilience. Using a similar approach, we analyzed the effects of superimposing a government-led co-management policy into this traditional system. Two major effects of the new policy were encountered. First, traditional institutions were weakened, which had negative effects on the levels of trust within the community and intensified conflict among users. Second, the management system's adaptive capacity was reduced, thereby jeopardizing the ecosystem's resilience. Our results suggest that the devolution of power to this kind of fisher community still has not reached the level required for fishers to legally address the local deficiencies of the Chilean co-management policy. Additionally, legal adjustments must be made to accommodate traditionally managed ecosystems that offer benefits comparable to those mandated under the formal policy. A fuller understanding of the interactions between co-management and traditional institutions can help us to identify ways to promote resilience and facilitate equal access by mitigating the potential negative effects of co-management policy and informing its future implementation. CR *EST MAR, 2003, EST SIT BAS PLAN MAN *SECPLAC, ILL MUN NAV *SUBP SUBS PESC VA, 2004, CONC AR MAN REC BENT AGRAWAL A, 1999, WORLD DEV, V27, P629 AGRAWAL A, 2001, WORLD DEV, V29, P1649 ASWANI S, 2004, ENVIRON CONSERV, V31, P69 BERKES F, 2003, NAVIGATING SOCIAL EC, V1, P1 BUSTAMANTE RH, 1990, BIOL CONSERV, V52, P205 CARLSSON L, 2003, NAVIGATING SOCIAL EC, P161 CASTILLA JC, IN PRESS REV FISH BI CASTILLA JC, 1989, MAR ECOL-PROG SER, V50, P203 CASTILLA JC, 1994, ECOLOGY INT B, V21, P47 CASTILLA JC, 1998, ECOL APPL, V8, P124 CASTILLA JC, 2000, J EXP MAR BIOL ECOL, V250, P3 CASTILLA JC, 2001, REV FISH BIOL FISHER, V11, P1 CASTILLO A, 2005, ECOL APPL, V15, P745 CLARKE K, 2001, CHANGE MARINE COMMUN CLARKE KR, 1993, AUST J ECOL, V18, P117 CLEAVER F, 2000, DEV CHANGE, V31, P361 COLDING J, 2003, NAVIGATING SOCIAL EC, P163 DASILVA PP, 2004, MAR POLICY, V28, P419 EDWARDSJONES G, 2001, OUTLOOK AGR, V30, P129 FANNING L, 2000, OCEAN YB, V14, P1 FOLKE C, 2003, NAVIGATING SOCIAL EC, P352 GARIBALDI A, 2004, ECOLOGY SOC, V9, P1 GELCICH S, 2005, CONSERV BIOL, V19, P865 GELCICH S, 2005, SOC NATUR RESOUR, V18, P377 GUILLOTREAU P, 1994, 71 U PORTSM CTR EC M GUNDERSON LH, 2000, ANNU REV ECOL SYST, V31, P425 HELTBERG R, 2001, ENVIRON DEV ECON 2, V6, P183 HOLLING CS, 1996, RIGHTS NATURE ECOLOG JOHANNES RE, 2002, ANNU REV ECOL SYST, V33, P317 JOHNSON C, 2001, DEV CHANGE, V32, P951 LEACH M, 1999, WORLD DEV, V27, P225 LOBE K, 2004, MAR POLICY, V28, P271 MCCAY BJ, 1995, OCEAN COAST MANAGE, V28, P3 MELTZOFF SK, 2002, COAST MANAGE, V30, P85 MOSSE D, 1994, DEV CHANGE, V25, P497 MOSSE D, 2004, DEV CHANGE, V35, P639 NORTH D, 1990, I I CHANGE EC PERFOR OLSSON P, 2001, ECOSYSTEMS, V4, P85 OSTROM E, 1990, GOVERNING COMMONS EV PAULY D, 2003, SCIENCE, V302, P1359 POMEROY RS, 1997, MAR POLICY, V21, P465 PRETTY J, 2001, WORLD DEV, V29, P209 SANTELICES B, 1980, MAR BIOL, V59, P119 SEIXAS CS, 2003, NAVIGATING SOCIAL EC, P271 SEN S, 1996, MAR POLICY, V20, P357 WATSON EE, 2003, DEV CHANGE, V34, P287 NR 49 TC 0 J9 ECOSYSTEMS BP 951 EP 966 PY 2006 PD SEP VL 9 IS 6 GA 097MY UT ISI:000241453300007 ER PT J AU Deng, XP Shan, L Inanaga, S Inoue, M TI Water-saving approaches for improving wheat production SO JOURNAL OF THE SCIENCE OF FOOD AND AGRICULTURE LA English DT Article C1 Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Soil & Water Conservat, State Key Lab Soil Eros & Dryland Farming Loess P, Shaanxi 712100, Peoples R China. NW Sci Tech Univ Agr, Shaanxi 712100, Peoples R China. Tottori Univ, Arid Land Res Ctr, Tottori 680, Japan. RP Deng, XP, Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Soil & Water Conservat, State Key Lab Soil Eros & Dryland Farming Loess P, Shaanxi 712100, Peoples R China. AB The greatest fear of global climate change is drought. World-wide, 61% of countries receive rainfall of less than 500 mm annually; domestication of wheat first occurred in such a semiarid region of southwestern Asia, and it seems that wheat foods originally came from dryland gardens. Wheat plants respond to drought through morphological, physiological and metabolic modifications in all plant parts. At the cellular level, plant responses to water deficit may result from cell damage, whereas other responses may correspond to adaptive processes. Although a large number of drought-induced genes have been identified in a wide range of wheat varieties, a molecular basis for wheat plant tolerance to water stress remains far from being completely understood. The rapid translocation of abscissic acid (ABA) in shoots via xylem flux, and the increase of ABA concentration in wheat plant parts cot-relate with the major physiological changes that occur during plant response to drought. It is widely accepted that ABA mediates general adaptive responses to drought. For a relatively determinate target stress environment, and with stable genotype x environment interaction, the probability for achieving progress is high. This approach will be possible only after we learn more about the physiology and genetics of wheat plant responses to water stress and their interactions. The difficulties encountered by molecular biologists in attempting to improve crop drought tolerance are due to our ignorance in agronomy and crop physiology and not to lack of knowledge or technical expertise in molecular biology. (c) 2005 Society of Chemical Industry. CR ARTLIP TS, 1997, PLANT MOL BIOL, V33, P61 BLUM A, 1985, CRC CRIT R PLANT SCI, V2, P199 BLUM A, 1991, EUPHYTICA, V54, P111 BLUM A, 1993, INT CROP SCI, V1, P343 BRENGLE KG, 1982, PRINCIPLES PRACTICES CHAUHAN YS, 1993, EXP AGR, V29, P233 CHAVES MM, 2003, FUNCT PLANT BIOL, V30, P239 CLOSE TJ, 1996, PHYSIOL PLANTARUM, V97, P795 CONDON AG, 2002, CROP SCI, V42, P122 CONDON AG, 2002, CROP SCI, V42, P122 DAVIES WJ, 2002, NEW PHYTOL, V153, P449 DENG XP, 2000, PHOTOSYNTHETICA, V38, P187 DENG XP, 2000, SOIL EROSION DRYLAND, P15 DENG XP, 2002, CEREAL RES COMMUN, V30, P125 DENG XP, 2002, P 12 INT SOIL CONS O, V3, P349 DENG XP, 2003, AGR SCI CHINA, V2, P35 DENNIS P, 1992, AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON, V40, P95 DRY PR, 1996, P AUSTR WINE IND TEC, V9, P126 DURE L, 1989, PLANT MOL BIOL, V12, P475 ENTZ MH, 1991, AGRON J, V83, P527 EVANS LT, 1976, PHIL TRANS ROY SOC L, V275, P71 EVANS LT, 1993, CROP EVOLUTION ADAPT FEIL B, 1992, PLANT BREEDING, V108, P1 FISCHER RA, 1978, ANNU REV PLANT PHYS, V29, P277 FISCHER RA, 1985, J AGR SCI, V105, P447 FRED P, 1991, NEW SCI, V129, P34 GALVEZ AF, 1993, PLANT PHYSIOL, V103, P257 GAMO M, 1999, J ARID LAND STUDIES, V1, P9 GILL BS, 1991, GENOME, V34, P830 GREGORY SM, 2000, AGRON J, V92, P1104 HARLAN J, 1987, HDB PLANT SCI AGR, P15 HARRIS DR, 1990, BIOL J LINN SOC, V39, P7 INGRAM J, 1996, ANNU REV PLANT PHYS, V47, P377 JAMA BA, 1996, PLANT SOIL, V179, P275 JAMES RF, 2001, CROP SCI, V41, P759 JENNINGS PR, 1977, ECON BOT, V31, P51 JONES HG, 1998, J EXP BOT, V49, P387 KANG SZ, 2000, AGR WATER MANAGE, V45, P267 KARAMANOS AJ, 1999, CROP SCI, V39, P1792 KIMBER G, 1987, AGRONOMY MONOGRAPH, V13 KORENTAJER L, 1988, AGRON J, V80, P977 LABHILILI M, 1995, PLANT SCI, V112, P219 LAFOND GP, 1986, CROP SCI, V26, P563 LIANG ZS, 2002, BOT BULL ACAD SINICA, V43, P187 LOGGINI B, 1999, PLANT PHYSIOL, V119, P1091 LUDLOW MM, 1980, ADAPTATION PLANTS WA, P16 LUDLOW MM, 1990, ADV AGRON, V43, P107 MARY JG, 2001, CROP SCI, V41, P327 MOLDENHAUER WC, 1959, AGRON J, V51, P39 MONTEITH JL, 1990, CHALLENGES DRYLAND A, P349 MORGAN JM, 1995, FIELD CROP RES, V40, P143 MUNNS R, 1993, PLANT CELL ENVIRON, V16, P867 OUVRARD O, 1996, PLANT MOL BIOL, V31, P819 PECETTI L, 1992, GENETIC RESOURCES CR, V39, P97 PELAH D, 1997, PHYSIOL PLANTARUM, V99, P153 PHILIPPE R, 2000, PLANT CELL, V12, P707 REBETZKE GJ, 1999, AUST J AGR RES, V50, P291 REGGIANI R, 1993, J PLANT PHYSIOL, V141, P136 REYNOLDS MP, 1999, CROP SCI, V39, P1611 RICHARDS RA, 2002, CROP SCI, V42, P111 ROSS PJ, 1985, AUST J SOIL RES, V23, P493 SHAN L, 2002, AGR SCI CHINA, V1, P934 SIDDIQUE MRB, 2000, BOT BULL ACAD SINICA, V41, P35 TALBERT LE, 1991, AM J BOT, V78, P340 TRETHOWAN RM, 2000, MOL APPROACHES GENET, P45 UNGER PW, 1992, SOIL SCI SOC AM J, V56, P283 VILLARREAL RL, 1999, REGIONAL WHEAT WORKS, P542 WILLIAMS JR, 1983, J SOIL WATER CONSERV, V38, P381 YADAV RC, 1974, INDIAN J AGR SCI, V44, P241 ZEEVAART JAD, 1988, ANNU REV PLANT PHYS, V39, P439 NR 70 TC 2 J9 J SCI FOOD AGR BP 1379 EP 1388 PY 2005 PD JUN VL 85 IS 8 GA 929OI UT ISI:000229355000020 ER PT J AU D'haeseleer, WD TI The importance of fusion development towards a future energy source SO FUSION ENGINEERING AND DESIGN LA English DT Article C1 Univ Louvain, Energy Inst, Appl Mech & Energy Convers, B-3001 Louvain, Belgium. RP D'haeseleer, WD, Univ Louvain, Energy Inst, Appl Mech & Energy Convers, Celestijnenlaan 300A, B-3001 Louvain, Belgium. AB In the light of major uncertainties in the long-term energy provision, the sensible approach with regard to energy-conversion technologies is not an 'either-or', but an 'and-and' philosophy. All three long-term carbon-free options, renewables, fission and fusion, should be further explored and developed so that future generations can choose the composition of an appropriate energy source basket. It would be irresponsible towards future generations not to pursue a potentially successful energy source such as nuclear fusion. Indeed, future fusion power plants have good prospects to qualify as economic and environmentally benign base-load electricity generation plants. The progress of fusion development has been remarkable; all available techno-scientific information shows that steady and significant progress is being made towards a successful reactor. The slow (but steady) pace of progress, however, is linked with the need for large and expensive experimental devices. In the present context of liberalizing energy markets, whereby most actors focus on short time survival and profit making, and the indifference by the public at large towards science and technology development, it is not obvious to convince the decision makers to invest in a long-term energy research strategy. Nevertheless, political decisiveness is required to keep the time schedule to establish commercial fusion by the middle of the century. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. CR *BP, 2002, BP STAT REV WORLD JU *CEU, 1996, DIR GEN EN DG 18 EN *CEU, 2001, EUR COMM GREEN PAP E *EAG FU, 2000, OP EAG FU EUR FUS RE *IAEA, 1998, ITER EDA DOCUMENTATI, V16 *IAEA, 2001, ITER EDA DOCUMENTATI, V18 *IAEA, 2001, ITER EDA DOCUMENTATI, V22 *IAEA, 2001, ITER EDA ITER EDA DO, V21 *IAEA, 2002, ITER EDA DOCUMENTATI, V24 *IEA, 2001, WORLD EN OUTL 2000 *SHELL INT, 1996, EV WORLDS EN SYST *UNDP, 2000, WORLD EN ASS EN CHAL ATSON RT, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995 BRUCE JP, 1995, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995 CRISWELL DR, 2002, INNOVATIVE ENERGY ST, P345 DHAESELEER W, 1994, BAFU9401 EMTZ B, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 HAESELEER WD, 1999, PLASMA PHYS CONTROLL, V41, B25 HOUGHTON JT, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995 HOUGHTON JT, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 KING D, 2001, CONCLUSIONS FUSION F MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 NAKICENOVIC N, 1998, GLOBAL ENERGY PERSPE SUESS E, 1999, SCI AM, V281, P53 NR 24 TC 0 J9 FUSION ENG DES BP 3 EP 15 PY 2003 PD SEP VL 66-8 GA 726UE UT ISI:000185617900002 ER PT J AU Wolanski, E De'ath, G TI Predicting the impact of present and future human land-use on the Great Barrier Reef SO ESTUARINE COASTAL AND SHELF SCIENCE LA English DT Article C1 AIMS, Townsville, Qld 4810, Australia. RP Wolanski, E, AIMS, PMB 3, Townsville, Qld 4810, Australia. AB An ecohydrologic model, verified against field data, suggests that land-use has contributed to degradation of the health of the Great Barrier Reef and to an increased frequency and intensity of crown-of-thorns starfish infestations. The model also predicts that the health of the Great Barrier Reef will significantly worsen by the year 2050 as a result of global warming. However, the model also suggests that much-improved land-use practices will enable some regions of the Great Barrier Reef to recover, even with global warming. Finally, the model suggests that, if global warming proceeds unchecked, biological adaptation is necessary to avoid a collapse of the Great Barrier Reef health by the year 2100. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *IPCC, 2001, CONTR WORK GROUPS 1 BERKELMANS R, 2002, MAR ECOL-PROG SER, V229, P73 BERKELMANS R, 2004, CORAL REEFS, V23, P74 BRODIE J, 2005, MAR POLLUT BULL, V51, P266 DONE T, 2003, GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANG LEE TN, 1992, CONT SHELF RES, V12, P971 SCANDOL JP, 1992, AUSTR J MARINE FRESH, V43, P583 WOLANSKI E, 1986, ANN GEOPHYS B-TERR P, V4, P425 WOLANSKI E, 2001, OCEANOGRAPHIC PROCES WOLANSKI E, 2004, J MARINE SYST, V46, P133 WOLANSKI E, 2004, WETLANDS ECOLOGY MAN, V12, P235 NR 11 TC 0 J9 ESTUAR COAST SHELF SCI BP 504 EP 508 PY 2005 PD AUG VL 64 IS 2-3 GA 950QV UT ISI:000230873200035 ER PT J AU Jones, RN TI Incorporating agency into climate change risk assessments - An editorial comment SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Editorial Material C1 CSIRO Atmospher Res, Aspendale, Vic 3195, Australia. RP Jones, RN, CSIRO Atmospher Res, Aspendale, Vic 3195, Australia. AB Human agency has been viewed as a problem for climate change assessments because of its contribution to uncertainty. In this editorial, I outline the advantages of agency in managing climate change risks, describing how those advantages can be placed within a probabilistic framework. 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SO CURRENT ANTHROPOLOGY LA English DT Review C1 Stanford Univ, Dept Biol Sci, Stanford, CA 94305 USA. RP Ehrlich, PR, Stanford Univ, Dept Biol Sci, Stanford, CA 94305 USA. AB A central theme of the flood of literature in recent years in "evolutionary psychology" and "behavioral genetics" is that much or even most human behavior has been programmed into the human genome by natural selection. We show that this conclusion is without basis. Evolutionary psychology is a series of "just-so" stories rooted in part in the erroneous notion that human beings during the Pleistocene all lived in the same environment of evolutionary adaptation. Behavioral genetics is based on a confusion of the information contained in a technical statistic called "heritability" with the colloquial meaning of the term, exacerbated by oversimplification of statistical models for the behavioral similarity of twins. In fact, information from twin studies, cross-fostering, sexual behavior, and the Human Genome Project makes it abundantly clear that most interesting aspects of the human behavioral phenome are programmed into the brain by the environment. The general confusion created by the genetic determinists has had and will continue to have unfortunate effects on public policy. 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Univ Southampton, Southampton, Hants, England. RP Adger, WN, Univ E Anglia, Tyndall Ctr Climate Change Res, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. 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SO PHILOSOPHICAL TRANSACTIONS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY OF LONDON SERIES A-MATHEMATICAL PHYSICAL AND ENGINEERING SCIENCES LA English DT Article C1 Univ E Anglia, Tyndall Ctr Climate Change Res, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. Univ E Anglia, Sch Environm Sci, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. RP Hulme, M, Univ E Anglia, Tyndall Ctr Climate Change Res, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. AB Consideration of abrupt climate change has generally been incorporated neither in analyses of climate-change impacts nor in the design of climate adaptation strategies. Yet the possibility of abrupt climate change triggered by human perturbation of the climate system is used to support the position of both those who urge stronger and earlier mitigative action than is currently being contemplated and those who argue that the unknowns in the Earth system are too large to justify such early action. This paper explores the question of abrupt climate change in terms of its potential implications for society, focusing on the UK and northwest Europe in particular. The nature of abrupt climate change and the different ways in which it has been defined and perceived are examined. Using the example of the collapse of the thermohaline circulation (THC), the suggested implications for society of abrupt climate change are reviewed; previous work has been largely speculative and has generally considered the implications only from economic and ecological perspectives. Some observations about the implications from a more social and behavioural science perspective are made. If abrupt climate change simply implies changes in the occurrence or intensity of extreme weather events, or an accelerated unidirectional change in climate, the design of adaptation to climate change can proceed within the existing paradigm, with appropriate adjustments. Limits to adaptation in some sectors or regions may be reached, and the costs of appropriate adaptive behaviour may be large, but strategy can develop on the basis of a predicted long-term unidirectional change in climate. It would be more challenging, however, if abrupt climate change implied a directional change in climate, as, for example, may well occur in northwest Europe following a collapse of the THC. There are two fundamental problems for society associated with such an outcome: first, the future changes in climate currently being anticipated and prepared for may reverse and, second, the probability of such a scenario occurring remains fundamentally unknown. The implications of both problems for climate policy and for decision making have not been researched. It is premature to argue therefore that abrupt climate change-in the sense referred to here-imposes unacceptable costs on society or the world economy, represents a catastrophic impact of climate change or constitutes a dangerous change in climate that should be avoided at all reasonable cost. We conclude by examining the implications of this contention for future research and policy formation. 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RP Pelling, M, Univ Liverpool, Dept Geog, Roxby Bldg, Liverpool L69 7ZT, Merseyside, England. AB Urban areas are becoming increasingly risky places to live, especially for low-income residents of cities in developing countries. Exposure to environmental risk and hazard has stimulated a range of work examining the physical processes creating these hazards, and the human processes that lead to vulnerability. Both approaches are useful, but are in danger of focusing on proximate rather than underlying causes. The concept of 'adaptive potential' is introduced in this paper to expose the social base of vulnerability. It offers a framework for broadening the analysis of risk to include an examination of local social assets. Such assets may already be used in confronting vulnerability, or they may be more latent; in either case, they offer a way for strategic policy interventions to enhance community resilience with regard to future risk at a time of growing environmental uncertainty. Adaptive potential is applied to a case study community in Santo Domingo. 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RP Sutherland, WJ, Univ E Anglia, Sch Biol Sci, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. AB Economists, politicians, farmers, consumers and conservationists are all calling for drastic changes in agricultural policies. The current emphasis is on promoting agri-environment schemes, and recent work shows that, although some schemes can be beneficial, others generate negligible gains. An alternative is to combine carefully targeted agri-environment schemes with large-scale habitat restoration. Restoration provides the opportunity to deal with several problems simultaneously, such as sea-level rise, water-catchment protection and flood defence. Pioneering schemes are showing that such restoration is possible, and there is now the opportunity to carry such restoration out more widely. CR *COUNTR LAND BUS A, 2001, CLIM CHANG RUR EC *NAT RIV AUTH, 1995, GUID UND MAN SALTM *RSPB, 2001, FUT LARG SCAL HAB RE ASHENDORFF A, 1997, J AM WATER WORKS ASS, V89, P75 BAKKER JP, 1999, TRENDS ECOL EVOL, V14, P63 DONALD PF, 2001, P ROY SOC LOND B BIO, V268, P25 FALCONER K, 2000, LAND USE POLICY, V17, P269 GILG AW, 1998, FOOD POLICY, V23, P25 HENDERSON IG, 2000, ECOGRAPHY, V23, P50 KLEIJN D, 2001, NATURE, V413, P723 KOKKO H, 2001, EVOL ECOL RES, V3, P537 KREBS JR, 1999, NATURE, V400, P611 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 MYERS N, 1998, PERVERSE SUBSIDIES OVENDEN GN, 1998, J APPL ECOL, V35, P955 PEACH WJ, 2001, BIOL CONSERV, V101, P361 PRETTY JN, 2000, AGR SYST, V65, P113 ROBINSON RA, IN PRESS J APPL ECOL SPURGEON J, 1998, MAR POLLUT BULL, V37, P373 SUTHERLAND WJ, 2001, TRENDS ECOL EVOL, V16, P261 TILMAN D, 2001, SCIENCE, V292, P281 VANDERPLOEG RR, 1999, NATURWISSENSCHAFTEN, V86, P313 NR 22 TC 17 J9 TREND ECOL EVOLUT BP 148 EP 150 PY 2002 PD MAR VL 17 IS 3 GA 527ZB UT ISI:000174217000015 ER PT J AU Alberini, A Chiabai, A Muehlenbachs, L TI Using expert judgment to assess adaptive capacity to climate change: Evidence from a conjoint choice survey SO GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS LA English DT Article C1 Univ Maryland, AREC, College Pk, MD 20742 USA. Fdn Eni Enrico Mattei, I-30122 Venice, Italy. RP Alberini, A, Univ Maryland, AREC, 2200 Symons Hall, College Pk, MD 20742 USA. AB We use conjoint choice questions to ask a sample of public health and climate change experts contacted at professional meetings in 2003 and 2004 (n = 100) which of two hypothetical countries, A or B, they deem to have the higher adaptive capacity to certain effects of climate change on human health. These hypothetical countries are described by a vector of seven attributes, including per capita income, inequality in the distribution of income, measures of the health status of the population, the health care system, and access to information. Probit models indicate that our respondents regard per capita income, inequality in the distribution of income, universal health care coverage, and high access to information as important determinants of adaptive capacity. A universal-coverage health care system and a high level of access to information are judged to be equivalent to $12,000-$14,000 in per capita income. We use the estimated coefficients and country socio-demographics to construct an index of adaptive capacity for several countries. In panel-data regressions, this index is a good predictor of mortality in climatic disasters, even after controlling for other determinants of sensitivity and exposure, and for per capita income. We conclude that our conjoint choice questions provide a novel and promising approach to eliciting expert judgments in the climate change arena. (C) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 *U CATH LOUV, EM DAT OFDA CRED INT ADAMOWICZ W, 1994, J ENVIRON ECON MANAG, V26, P271 ADGER WN, 2000, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V90, P738 ADGER WN, 2005, CR GEOSCI, V337, P399 ALBERINI A, 2005, REG SCI URBAN ECON, V35, P327 BOXALL PC, 1996, ECOL ECON, V18, P243 BROOKS N, 2005, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V15, P151 FUSSELL E, 2005, LEAVING NEW ORLEANS GREENE WH, 2003, ECONOMETRIC ANAL GROTHMANN T, 2005, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V15, P199 HADDAD BM, 2005, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V15, P165 HANLEY N, 2001, J ECON SURV, V15, P435 KALY U, 2002, DEV B, V58, P33 KLEIN RJT, 1998, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V44, P15 KLEIN RJT, 2003, CLIMATE CHANGE MEDIT LEITH JC, 2005, WHY BOTSWANA PROSPER LOUVIERE JJ, 2000, STATED CHOICE METHOD LUERS AL, 2003, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V13, P255 MENDELSOHN R, 1994, AM ECON REV, V84, P753 MENDELSOHN R, 1996, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V80, P55 MORGAN MG, 2001, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V49, P279 MOSS RH, 2000, VULNERABILITY CLIMAT NORDHAUS WD, 1994, SCIENTIST, V82, P44 OBRIEN KL, 2004, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V64, P193 OSHIMA H, 2001, POPULATION CHANGE EC PATT AG, 2002, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V15, P185 PELLING M, 2005, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V15, P308 PHILLIPS J, 2003, COPING CLIMATE VARIA, P110 POLSKY C, 2004, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V94, P549 PUTNAM R, 1995, PS POLITICAL SCI POL, V28, P667 SADRIEH A, 2005, INEQUALITY COOPERATI SIMERMAN J, 2005, CHARLOTTE OBSER 1230 SKIDMORE M, 2002, ECON INQ, V40, P664 TAYLOR I, 2003, AFRICAN AFFAIRS, V102 TOL RSJ, 2005, ENERG POLICY, V33, P2064 YOHE GW, 2002, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V12, P25 YOHE GW, 2002, J ECON GEOGR, V2, P311 NR 38 TC 0 J9 GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANGE BP 123 EP 144 PY 2006 PD MAY VL 16 IS 2 GA 051NM UT ISI:000238167800003 ER PT J AU Newell, P TI Climate change and development: A tale of two crises SO IDS BULLETIN-INSTITUTE OF DEVELOPMENT STUDIES LA English DT Article C1 Univ Warwick, Coventry CV4 7AL, W Midlands, England. Climate Network Europe, NGO Sector, Brussels, Belgium. AB The fact that climate change has been so neglected by the mainstream development community should not be a surprise. Not only because most environmental issues have yet to be effectively mainstreamed within development policy and practice, but because climate change raises a series of uncomfortable challenges for the theory and practice of development. By not thinking beyond convenient frames of interpretation, we miss an important opportunity to effect more substantive change in preventing climate change from further immiserising the lives of the poor, by critically revisiting the role of conventional development strategies in producing the problem in the first place. 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RP Kashyap, A, UNDP, 304 E 45th St FF-9th Floor, New York, NY 10017 USA. AB There is increasing evidence that global climate variability and change is affecting the quality and availability of water supplies. Integrated water resources development, use, and management strategies, represent an effective approach to achieve sustainable development of water resources in a changing environment with competing demands. It is also a key to achieving the Millennium Development Goals. It is critical that integrated water management strategies must incorporate the impacts of climate variability and change to reduce vulnerability of the poor, strengthen sustainable livelihoods and support national sustainable development. UNDP's strategy focuses on developing adaptation in the water governance sector as an entry point within the framework of poverty reduction and national sustainable development. This strategy aims to strengthen the capacity of governments and civil society organizations to have access to early warning systems, ability to assess the impact of climate variability and change on integrated water resources management, and developing adaptation intervention through hands-on learning by undertaking pilot activities. CR MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 *UNDP UNEP WORLD B, 2002, POV CLIM CHANG RED V COSGROVE WJ, WORLD WATER VISION M NR 3 TC 0 J9 WATER SCI TECHNOL BP 141 EP 146 PY 2004 VL 49 IS 7 GA 834HB UT ISI:000222401100027 ER PT J AU Confalonieri, R Gusberti, D Bocchi, S Acutis, M TI The CropSyst model to simulate the N balance of rice for alternative management SO AGRONOMY FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT LA English DT Article C1 Commiss European Communities, Joint Res Ctr, Inst Protect & Secur Citizen, AGRIFISH Unit,MARS STAT Sector,TP 268, I-21020 Ispra, VA, Italy. Univ Milan, Sect Agron, Dept Crop Sci, I-20133 Milan, Italy. RP Confalonieri, R, Commiss European Communities, Joint Res Ctr, Inst Protect & Secur Citizen, AGRIFISH Unit,MARS STAT Sector,TP 268, I-21020 Ispra, VA, Italy. AB CropSyst is a mechanistic model developed for simulating the growth and development of potentially all herbaceous crops under potential and water/nitrogen ( N)-limited conditions. Although the model has been widely used for many crops under different pedo-climatic and management conditions, studies on the simulation of water and N balance for flooded rice are lacking. We evaluated the CropSyst model for simulating the N balance of north-Italian rice fields for scatter-seeded rice grown under continuously flooded conditions. In order to calibrate and validate the model for the processes involved with soil N transformation, data collected in field experiments carried out in northern Italy between 2002 and 2004 were used. The results show the robustness of the model in reproducing the course of the measured soil mineral nitrogen content: the Modeling Efficiencies which describe the agreement between measured and simulated trends, are in most cases positive and the model error fell almost always within the experimental error on the measurements ( P = 0.95). Moreover, the model showed the same level of reliability while simulating the nitrogen balances under different levels of nitrogen fertilization, thus depicting it as suitable for comparing N fertilization scenarios. This first attempt at using a model for simulating the nitrogen balance under flooded conditions encourages further studies because of the need of effective tools for optimizing the nitrogen management of flooded rice systems, considered significant sources of groundwater pollution and greenhouse gases in many European rice districts. CR MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 ACUTIS M, 2000, EUR J AGRON, V13, P191 ALAOUI A, 2003, HYDROLOG SCI J, V48, P455 ANGUS JF, 1996, P 2 AS CROP SCI C 21, P274 BECHINI L, 2006, ENVIRON MODELL SOFTW, V21, P1042 BLOMBACK K, 1995, ECOL MODEL, V81, P157 CAMPBELL GS, 1985, SOIL PHYS BASIC CASSMAN KG, 1993, PLANT SOIL, V155, P359 CONFALONIERI R, 2004, EUR J AGRON, V21, P223 CONFALONIERI R, 2005, ECOL MODEL, V183, P269 CONFALONIERI R, 2005, EUR J AGRON, V23, P315 CONFALONIERI R, 2005, ITAL J AGROMETEOROL, V2, P54 CORWIN DL, 1991, J ENVIRON QUAL, V20, P647 DIEKKRUGER B, 1995, ECOL MODEL, V81, P3 FOCHT DD, 1979, NITROGEN RICE, P105 GHOSH BC, 1998, ENVIRON POLLUT S1, V102, P123 HANSEN S, 1991, FERT RES, V27, P245 JUSTES E, 1994, ANN BOT-LONDON, V74, P397 KROPFF MJ, 1994, SARP RES P LOS BAN P KUSHWAHA CP, 2000, SOIL TILL RES, V56, P153 LANCASHIRE PD, 1991, ANN APPL BIOL, V119, P561 LIU CW, 2001, AGR SYST, V68, P41 LOAGUE K, 1991, J CONTAM HYDROL, V7, P51 MAHMOOD R, 1998, ECOL MODEL, V106, P201 MAJUMDAR D, 2000, AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON, V81, P163 MONTEITH JL, 1996, AGRON J, V88, P695 PANNKUK CD, 1998, AGR SYST, V57, P121 PIRMORADIAN N, 2004, AGRONOMIE, V24, P143 REDDY KR, 1982, PLANT SOIL, V67, P209 SEPPELT R, 2005, ENVIRON MODELL SOFTW, V20, P1543 SIERRA J, 2003, PLANT SOIL, V256, P333 SINGH U, 1993, USERS GUIDE CERES RI SINGH U, 1999, FIELD CROP RES, V61, P237 STOCKLE CO, 2003, EUR J AGRON, V18, P289 STUTTERHEIM NC, 1994, FERT RES, V37, P235 VANITTERSUM MK, 2003, EUR J AGRON, V18, P187 NR 36 TC 0 J9 AGRON SUSTAIN DEV BP 241 EP 249 PY 2006 PD OCT-DEC VL 26 IS 4 GA 128VJ UT ISI:000243686800003 ER PT J AU Aggarwal, PK Banerjee, B Daryaei, MG Bhatia, A Bala, A Rani, S Chander, S Pathak, H Kalra, N TI InfoCrop: A dynamic simulation model for the assessment of crop yields, losses due to pests, and environmental impact of agro-ecosystems in tropical environments. II. Performance of the model SO AGRICULTURAL SYSTEMS LA English DT Article C1 Indian Agr Res Inst, Div Environm Sci, New Delhi 110012, India. RP Aggarwal, PK, Indian Agr Res Inst, Div Environm Sci, NRL Bldg, New Delhi 110012, India. AB InfoCrop, a generic crop model, simulates the effects of weather, soils, agronomic management (planting, nitrogen, residues and irrigation) and major pests on crop growth, yield, soil carbon, nitrogen and water, and greenhouse gas emissions. This paper presents results of its evaluation in terms of its validation for rice and wheat crops in contrasting agro-environments of tropics, sensitivity to the key inputs, and also illustrates two typical applications of the model. Eleven diverse field experiments, having treatments of location, seasons, varieties, nitrogen management, organic matter, irrigation, and multiple pest incidences were used for validation. Grain yields in these experiments varied from 2.8 to 7.2 ton ha(-1) in rice and from 3.6 to 5.5 ton ha(-1) in wheat. The results indicated that the model was generally able to explain the differences in biomass, grain yield, emissions of carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxides, and long-term trends in soil organic carbon, in diverse agro-environments. The losses in dry matter and grain yield due to different pests and their populations were also explained satisfactorily. There were some discrepancies in the simulated emission of these gases during first few days after sowing/transplanting possibly because of the absence of tillage effects in the model. The sensitivity of the model to change in ambient temperature, crop duration and pest incidence was similar to the available field knowledge. The application of the model to quantify multiple pests damage through iso-loss curves is demonstrated. Another application illustrated is the use of InfoCrop for analyzing the trade-offs between increasing crop production, agronomic management strategies, and their global warming potential. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *FAO, 1999, STAT FOOD INS WORLD MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 AGGARWAL PK, 1994, FIELD CROP RES, V38, P73 AGGARWAL PK, 1997, FIELD CROP RES, V51, P5 AGGARWAL PK, 2000, SERIES RWCIGP CIMMYT, V10, P16 AGGARWAL PK, 2003, J PLANT BIOL, V30, P189 AGGARWAL PK, 2004, ENVIRON SCI POLICY, V7, P487 AGGARWAL PK, 2005, MODEL DESCRIPTION AG, V1 BHANDARI AL, 2002, SOIL SCI SOC AM J, V66, P167 BOUMAN BAM, 2001, ORYZA2000 MODELING L, P235 DUXBURY JM, 2000, LONG TERM SOIL FERTI JONES JW, 2001, AGR SYST, V70, P421 KATYAL V, 1998, INDIAN J AGR SCI, V68, P51 KAUFFMAN HE, 1973, PLANT DIS REP, V57, P537 LADHA JK, 2003, ASA SPEC PUBL, V65, P231 MALL RK, 2002, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V52, P315 PATHAK H, 2002, ENVIRON MONIT ASSESS, V77, P163 PATHAK H, 2003, AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON, V97, P309 REDDY PR, 1993, SARP RES P ANAL DAMA, P279 SANKARAN VM, 2000, FIELD CROP RES, V66, P141 SINHA SK, 1998, DECLINE CROP PRODUCT, P89 TENBERGE HFM, 1997, APPL RICE MODELLING, P166 VANKRAALINGEN DWG, 1995, 1 WAG U CT WIT GRAD, P58 NR 23 TC 0 J9 AGR SYST BP 47 EP 67 PY 2006 PD JUL VL 89 IS 1 GA 031EN UT ISI:000236687000003 ER PT J AU HALL, RL HALL, DA TI GEOGRAPHIC-VARIATION OF NATIVE PEOPLE ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST SO HUMAN BIOLOGY LA English DT Article C1 OREGON STATE UNIV,CTR STUDY 1ST AMER,CORVALLIS,OR 97331. RP HALL, RL, OREGON STATE UNIV,DEPT ANTHROPOL,CORVALLIS,OR 97331. AB Data gathered by Boas in the 1890s from 1749 adult males and 1056 adult females were subjected to anthropometric analyses to investigate possible effects of climatic adaptation. The subjects were native people from California, Oregon, Washington, the panhandle of Alaska, and British Columbia. They were categorized by their tribe's latitude and longitude (the center point of tribal distribution) and by habitat (characterized as coastal, western lowlands, and interior). Multiple R regressions were used to determine complex relationships between age, habitat, latitude, rainfall, mean January temperature, mean July temperature, and blood quantum, all of which affected some anthropometric variables to statistically significant degrees in both the male and the female samples. Body size and proportional differences support other studies of Bergmann's and Alien's rules, and variation in the nasal index supports prior studies of selection of longer, narrower noses in cold and dry climates and broader noses in warmer, moister ones. Recent disruption in the central portion of the study area was detectable in reduced size of subjects in these regions. Other complicating factors, such as ethnicity and the possibility of prior migrations and intermarriage between populations, are discussed. CR 1985, CLIMATE STATES BOAS F, 1891, AM ANTHROPOL, V4, P25 BOYD RT, 1990, HDB N AM INDIANS, V7, P135 CAREY JW, 1981, AM J PHYS ANTHROPOL, V56, P313 CASTILLO ED, 1978, HDB N AM INDIANS, V8, P99 COLE DC, 1990, HDB N AM INDIANS, V7, P119 DUFF W, 1969, ANTHR BRIT COLUMBIA, V5 ELSASSER AB, 1978, HDB N AM INDIANS, V8, P37 FRANCISCUS RG, 1988, AM J PHYS ANTHROPOL, V75, P517 FRISANCHO AR, 1979, HUMAN ADAPTATION HALL R, 1972, AM J PHYS ANTHROPOL, V37, P439 HALL RL, 1972, AM J PHYS ANTHROPOL, V37, P401 HALL RL, 1978, HUM BIOL, V50, P159 HALL RL, 1991, PAC NORTHWEST QUART, V82, P101 HALL RL, 1992, J ANTHROPOL RES, V48, P165 HALL RL, 1992, MASCA RES PAPERS SCI, V9, P43 HARE FK, 1979, CLIMATE CANADA HEIZER RF, 1978, HDB N AM INDIANS, V8 JACKSON PL, 1993, ATLAS PACIFIC NW, P48 JANTZ RL, 1992, HUM BIOL, V64, P435 NEWMAN MT, 1953, AM ANTHROPOL, V55, P311 NEWMAN MT, 1960, HUM BIOL, V32, P288 ROBERTS DF, 1953, AM J PHYS ANTHROPOL, V11, P533 ROBERTS DF, 1978, CLIMATE HUMAN VARIAB ROHLF FJ, 1969, STATISTICAL TABLES RUFF CB, 1991, J HUM EVOL, V21, P81 SCHUYLER RL, 1978, HDB N AM INDIANS, V8, P69 SIMPSON GG, 1960, QUANTITATIVE ZOOLOGY SUTTLES W, 1990, HDB N AM INDIANS, V7 WALLACE WJ, 1978, HDB N AM INDIANS, V8, P164 WEINER JS, 1954, AM J PHYS ANTHROPOL, V12, P615 WILKINSON L, 1989, SYSTAT SYSTEM STATIS NR 32 TC 4 J9 HUM BIOL BP 407 EP 426 PY 1995 PD JUN VL 67 IS 3 GA QW687 UT ISI:A1995QW68700006 ER PT J AU Perez-Escamill, R Randolph, S Hathie, I Gaye, I TI Adaptation and validation of the USDA food security scale in rural Senegal SO FASEB JOURNAL LA English DT Meeting Abstract C1 Univ Connecticut, Storrs, CT 06269 USA. ENEA, Dakar, Senegal. NR 0 TC 0 J9 FASEB J BP A106 EP A106 PY 2004 PD MAR 23 VL 18 IS 4 GA 806ZA UT ISI:000220470600516 ER PT J AU Greppin, H Degli Agosti, R Priceputu, AM TI From viability envelopes to sustainable societies: A place for various and efficient economical and cultural expressions on the planet SO ARCHIVES DES SCIENCES LA English DT Article C1 Univ Geneva, Dept Plant Biol & Bot, CH-1204 Geneva 4, Switzerland. Univ Geneva, Univ Ctr Human Ecol & Environm Sci, CUEH, Uni Mail, CH-1211 Geneva, Switzerland. Univ Geneva, HEC Management Studies, Logilab, Uni Mail, CH-1211 Geneva 4, Switzerland. RP Greppin, H, Univ Geneva, Dept Plant Biol & Bot, Pl Univ 3, CH-1204 Geneva 4, Switzerland. AB The concept of viability envelopes (physical, chemical, biological levels) is developed as well as the general consequences and conditions to put in place a global and local sustainable development as defined by official institutions. The three logics and associated regulation processes that define a viable relation-space are presented. Some sentinel variables are proposed. There are, for example, the population life expectancy (PLE) and net photosynthetic production (NPP) on a soil or a sea of ecological quality, as well as the mean temperature and atmospheric CO2 variation velocities. These elementary indicators permit us to follow and evaluate the degree of interaction between human oxygen respiration and energetic consumption with the photosynthetic oxygen production by green plants, as well as the correlation with the thermic and greenhouse effect. The increase or decrease of PLE and NPP as well as the phase-space evolution of the thermic and CO2 pattern can give us a precocious information, for the near future, on the sense of sustainability (positive or negative way) provoked by a socio-economic pattern and energetic choice. A cybernetical model is presented as well as different ways of positive adaptation and management. 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SO ENVIRONMENTAL CONSERVATION LA English DT Article RP Frazier, JG, IPN,CTR INVEST & ESTUDIOS AVANZADOS,SECC ECOL HUMANA,UNIDAD MERIDA,MERIDA 97310,YUCATAN,MEXICO. AB Over the past two decades 'sustainable development' has grown from a term expressing concern for social and environmental problems to an international craze. The concept purportedly offers cures for the many and diverse problems afflicting modem society and because it involves an integrated approach, the sustainable development fashion has resulted in much-needed collaboration between specialists from diverse backgrounds, to work on the complex problems involved in the interactions between society and environment. However, the term is rarely defined, and, being stylish and institutionalized, the 'sustainability movement' now directs the way much science and policy for biological conservation and development are designed, executed and evaluated. Occult, but basic, in nearly ail discourses of sustainable development is the axiom of continual growth; and, in most cases, instead of offering a true solution to contemporary problems, the term is a source of confusion, contention and even deception. It is imperative that the use of this term, especially in multidisciplinary, international and scientific spheres, be based on clear understanding of its meaning, and that the issue of growth and the concept of limits be clearly incorporated into the core of the discussion. CR *IUCN UNDP WWF, 1991, CARING EARTH *ROYAL SOC LOND US, 1992, M WORLD COMM CULT DE *WCED, 1987, OUR COMM FUT *WCS, 1980, WORLD CONS STRAT LIV ADAMS AL, 1994, SUSTAINABLE USE WILD ADAMS REW, 1977, ARCHAEOLOGY, V30, P292 BATES DG, 1991, HUMAN ADAPTIVE STRAT BELZ F, 1994, GAIA, V3, P44 BODLEY JH, 1988, TRIBAL PEOPLES DEV I BODLEY JH, 1990, VICTIMS PROGR BOTKIN DB, 1990, DISCORDANT HARMONIES BRENNAN AA, 1992, ENV DILEMMAS ETHICS BROKENSHA DW, 1980, INDIGENOUS KNOWLEDGE BROWN L, 1993, STATE WORLD, P3 CARPENTER RA, 1994, ECOLOGY INT B, V21, P27 CLARK J, 1990, DEMOCRATIZING DEV RO CLAY JW, 1988, INDIGENOUS PEOPLES T COLVIN M, 1994, FROM THE CTR, V13, P1 DOWIE M, 1995, LOSING GROUND AM ENV DURNING AT, 1993, 112 WORLDW EDWARDS PJ, 1994, 6 INT C EC MANCH UK EDWARDS PJ, 1994, LARGE SCALE ECOLOGY EGERTON F, 1993, HUMANS COMPONENTS EC, P9 EMBERSONBAIN A, 1994, SUSTAINABLE DEV MALI ESTAVA G, 1992, INTACH ENV SERIES, V16, P6 FAIRLIE S, 1995, ECOLOGIST, V25, P41 FRAZIER JG, 1990, T 55 N AM WILDL NAT, P384 FRAZIER JG, 1996, P 15 ANN S SEA TURTL, P92 FRAZIER JG, 1996, P INT C CHEL CONS, P262 FREESE C, COMMERCIAL COMSUMPTI FRI RW, 1995, RESOURCES, V120, P15 GADGIL M, 1995, ECOLOGY EQUITY USE A GATTO M, 1995, ECOL APPL, V5, P1181 GERLACH LP, 1994, J FOREST, V92, P18 GOLLEY F, 1994, RENEWABLE RESOUR SUM, P12 GONZALEZ G, 1996, DESARROLLO SUSTENTAB HALL J, 1993, HUMANS COMPONENTS EC, P51 HARDIN G, 1978, STALKING WILD TABOO HARDIN G, 1993, LIVING LIMITS ECOLOG HARDOY JE, 1992, ENV PROBLEMS THIRD W HOYT JA, 1994, ANIMALS PERIL SUSTAI ISBISTER J, 1993, PROMISES KEPT BETRAY KAPLAN RD, 1994, ATLANTIC MONTHLY FEB, P44 KEHOE AB, 1989, GHOST DANCE ETHNOHIS KORTEN DC, 1995, CORPORATIONS RULE WO LAMARCH G, 1992, DEFENDING EARTH ABUS LARKIN PA, 1977, T AM FISH SOC, V106, P1 LEE KN, 1993, ECOL APPL, V3, P560 LEFF E, 1996, FORMACION AMBIENTAL, V7, P17 LELE S, 1996, CONSERV BIOL, V19, P354 LEVIN SA, 1993, ECOL APPL, V3, P545 LOWE JWG, 1985, DYNAMICS APOCALYPSE LUDWIG D, 1993, ECOL APPL, V3, P555 LUDWIG D, 1993, SCIENCE, V260, P17 LUDWIG D, 1993, SCIENCE, V260, P36 MANGEL M, 1993, ECOL APPL, V3, P573 MANGEL M, 1996, ECOL APPL, V6, P338 MARTI F, 1993, ERFOLGSKONTROLLE NAT MASOOD E, 1997, NATURE, V386, P105 MCDONNELL MJ, 1993, HUMANS COMPONENTS EC MITROFF II, 1993, UNREALITY IND DELIBE MOIR WH, 1995, FOREST ECOL MANAG, V73, P239 MORAN EF, 1990, ECOSYSTEM APPROACH A MYERS N, 1992, PRIMARY SOURCE NIGH R, 1989, PERFIL JORNADA 0516, R1 OHARA SL, 1994, CHEMOSPHERE, V29, P965 ORR DW, 1994, CONSERV BIOL, V8, P931 PAINTER M, 1995, SOCIAL CAUSES ENV DE PEARCE D, 1989, BLUEPRINT GREEN EC PEARCE D, 1989, CHANGING GLOBAL ENV, P309 PINSTRUPANDERSEN P, 1996, ENVIRON CONSERV, V23, P226 POSTEL SD, 1993, STATE WORLD, P22 RAPPAPORT RA, 1967, PIGS ANCESTORS RITUA, V1, P1 REDFORD KH, 1990, ORION NATURE Q, V9, P24 RICHTER J, 1996, ECOLOGIST, V26, P53 ROBINSON JG, 1993, CONSERV BIOL, V7, P20 ROBINSON JG, 1993, CONSERV BIOL, V7, P941 ROSENBERG AA, 1993, SCIENCE, V262, P828 SCHLESINGER WH, 1991, BIOGEOCHEMISTRY ANAL SCHWARTZNOBEL L, 1981, STARVING SHADOW PLEN SHERMAN K, 1994, MARINE ECOLOGY PROGR, V112, P227 SHIVA V, 1986, INTACH ENV SERIES, V5, P1 SHIVA V, 1992, INTACH ENV SERIES, V18, P1 SKLAR H, 1980, TRILATERILISM TRILAT SOLOW R, 1992, ALMOST PRACTICAL STE SOLOW RM, 1996, HUMAN DEV REPORT, P16 SPOERL PM, 1995, BIODIVERSITY MANAGEM, P492 TISDELL C, 1988, WORLD DEV, V16, P373 TOLBA MK, 1993, WORLD ENV 1972 1992 TOMPKINS S, 1989, FORESTRY CRISIS BATT TUCKER AD, 1995, CONSERVATION SUSTAIN, P151 ULHAQ M, 1995, HUMAN DEV REPORT 199 ULHAQ M, 1996, HUMAN DEV REPORT 199 WALLACE AFC, 1970, MAGIC WITCHCRAFT REL, P332 WESTING AH, 1996, ENVIRON CONSERV, V23, P218 WILLERS B, 1994, CONSERV BIOL, V8, P1146 YOUNG LB, 1991, WORLD MONITOR, P40 NR 97 TC 10 J9 ENVIRON CONSERV BP 182 EP 193 PY 1997 PD JUN VL 24 IS 2 GA YJ450 UT ISI:A1997YJ45000010 ER PT J AU Troadec, JP TI Adaptation opportunities to climate variability and change in the exploitation and utilisation of marine living resources SO ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING AND ASSESSMENT LA English DT Article C1 Menez Perroz, F-29880 Plouguerneau, France. RP Troadec, JP, Menez Perroz, F-29880 Plouguerneau, France. AB Because they contribute little to climate change, fisheries, aquaculture and other uses of marine renewable resources and environment have limited means to mitigate climate impacts. Adaptation is, therefore, critical. Though likely effects on oceans and fisheries can be identified, few can be quantified and, thus, priorized. Consequently, adaptation strategies should aim at enhancing the resilience of marine renewable resources and their uses and the current capacity to respond to surprises. Already, these uses are characterized by massive over-capacities, excessive resource exploitation, and pervasive conflicts within and between uses. Two complementary adaptation strategies are available. The first consists in adjusting conventional management systems to the new conditions of resource scarcity. The second aims at reducing the current resource constraint by promoting the development of aquaculture and a better utilization of fishery and aquaculture harvests. In this respect, small-scale and large-scale production systems, and developing and developed countries, have different capabilities. In summary, climate change does not modify, but enhances, existing priorities of environment and fisheries management and aquaculture development. CR *FAO, 1997, STAT WORLD FISH AQ WATSON RT, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, V1, P1 ARNASON R, 1998, M COMM AGR RUR DEV E BAKUN A, 1996, CALIFORNIA SEA GRANT BRAUDEL F, 1973, CIVILISATION MAT EC, V1 CAUVIN J, 1994, NAISSANCE AGR REVOLU CUSHING DH, 1977, CLIMATE FISHERIES MAZOYER M, 1997, HIST AGR MONDE NEOLI NORTH DC, 1973, RISE W WORLD NEW EC SINCLAIR MH, 1989, MARINE POPULATIONS E NR 10 TC 0 J9 ENVIRON MONIT ASSESS BP 101 EP 112 PY 2000 PD MAR VL 61 IS 1 GA 300UB UT ISI:000086270100008 ER PT J AU Brunner, RD Klein, R TI Harvesting experience: A reappraisal of the US Climate Change Action Plan SO POLICY SCIENCES LA English DT Article C1 Univ Colorado, Ctr Publ Policy Res, Boulder, CO 80309 USA. RP Brunner, RD, Univ Colorado, Ctr Publ Policy Res, Campus Box 333, Boulder, CO 80309 USA. AB For mitigating climate change and adapting to whatever impacts we cannot avoid, there are no politically feasible alternatives to improvements in the U.S. Climate Change Action Plan at this time or for the foreseeable future. Yet improvements in the Action Plan have been obstructed by the diversion of attention and other resources to negotiating a binding international agreement, to developing a predictive understanding of global change, and to documenting the failure of the Action Plan to meet its short-term goal for the reduction of aggregate greenhouse gas emissions. Continuous improvements depend upon reallocating attention and other resources to the Action Plan, and more specifically, to the many small-scale policies that have already succeeded by climate change and `no regrets' criteria under the Action Plan. Sustaining the effort over the long term depends on harvesting experience from these small-scale successes for diffusion and adaptation elsewhere on a voluntary basis. CR 1997, US CLIMATE ACTION RE *COMM EARTH ENV SC, 1992, EC GLOB CHANG FY 199 *COMM EARTH SCI, 1989, OUR CHANG PLAN FY 19 *COMM ENV NAT RES, 1997, CHANG PLAN FY 1998 U *INT PAN CLIM CHAN, 1995, 1995 2 ASS SYNTH SCI *INT PAN CLIM CHAN, 1996, CLIM CHANG 1995 EC S *OFF GLOB CHANG, 1992, DEP STAT PUBL *US DOE, CLIM CHALL YOUR UT *US GEN ACC OFF, 1996, GAORCED96188 *US GEN ACC OFF, 1997, GAORCED97163 BAILEY J, 1996, AFTERTHOUGHT COMPUTE BERKE RL, 1997, NY TIMES 0622, P1 BERKE RL, 1997, NY TIMES 0702, A1 BODANSKY DM, 1995, ANNU REV ENERG ENV, V20, P425 BRUNNER RD, 1980, PUBLIC POLICY, V28, P71 BRUNNER RD, 1982, COMMUNITY ENERGY OPT BRUNNER RD, 1996, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V32, P121 BRUNNER RD, 1996, POLICY SCI, V29, P45 BRUNNER RD, 1998, 17 POL SCI ANN I YAL CLINTON WJ, 1993, CLIMATE CHANGE ACTIO CLINTON WJ, 1997, WEEKLY COMPILATION P, V33, P1629 CLINTON WJ, 1998, COMMUNICATION 0131 COLLINGRIDGE D, 1992, MANAGEMENT SCALE BIG DEWAR H, 1997, WASHINGTON POST 1211, A37 DRAPER L, 1994, ELECT PERSPECTIVES, V18, P24 GORE A, 1996, SCIENCE, V272, P177 HAVEL V, 1992, NY TIMES 0301, E15 HOLLAND JH, 1992, DAEDALUS, V121, P17 KAPLAN A, 1964, CONDUCT INQUIRY METH KAUPPI PE, 1995, SCIENCE, V270, P1454 KRIS M, 1996, NATL J 0309, P522 LANDAU M, 1969, PUBLIC ADMIN REV, V29, P346 LASHOF D, 1996, EVALUATING CLIMATE C, P49 LASSWELL HD, 1950, POWER SOC FRAMEWORK LASSWELL HD, 1956, DECISION PROCESS 7 C LASSWELL HD, 1963, FUTURE POLITICAL SCI, P95 LASSWELL HD, 1971, PREVIEW POLICY SCI LASSWELL HD, 1992, JURISPRUDENCE FREE S LEMONICK M, 1993, TIME 1101, P71 LEWIN T, 1997, NY TIMES 0925, A1 MITCHELL ES, 1996, MATURITAS, V25, P1 MONTGOMERY D, 1996, EVALUATING CLIMATE C, P75 MULLER F, 1996, ENVIRONMENT, V38, P13 OLSON S, 1997, SCIENCE, V277, P630 PAARLBERG RL, 1996, ENVIRONMENT OCT, P16 PIELKE RA, 1995, B AM METEOROL SOC, V76, P2445 PIELKE RA, 1995, POLICY SCI, V28, P39 PIELKE RA, 1998, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V8, P159 SCHICK A, 1995, FEDERAL BUDGET POLIT SIMON HA, 1957, MODELS MAN SIMON HA, 1981, SCI ARTIFICIAL SIMON HA, 1983, REASON HUMAN AFFAIRS STEVENS WK, 1997, NY TIMES 1103, A1 TENNEKES H, 1990, WEATHER, V45, P67 UNGAR S, 1995, SOC NATUR RESOUR, V8, P443 NR 55 TC 4 J9 POLICY SCI BP 133 EP 161 PY 1999 PD JUN VL 32 IS 2 GA 218UU UT ISI:000081572000002 ER PT J AU Jacobs, KL Garfin, GM Morehouse, BJ TI Climate science and drought planning: The Arizona experience SO JOURNAL OF THE AMERICAN WATER RESOURCES ASSOCIATION LA English DT Article C1 Univ Arizona, Dept Soil Water & Environm Sci, Tucson, AZ 85721 USA. Univ Arizona, Water Resources Res Ctr, Tucson, AZ 85721 USA. Univ Arizona, Inst Study Planet Earth, CLIMAS, Tucson, AZ 85721 USA. RP Jacobs, KL, Univ Arizona, Dept Soil Water & Environm Sci, 350 N Campbell, Tucson, AZ 85721 USA. AB In response to recent severe drought conditions throughout the state, Arizona recently developed its first drought plan. The Governor's Drought Task Force focused on limiting the economic and social impacts of future droughts through enhanced adaptation and mitigation efforts. The plan was designed to maximize the use of new, scientific breakthroughs in climate monitoring and prediction and in vulnerability assessment. The long term objective of the monitoring system is to allow for evaluation of conditions in multiple sectors and at multiple scales. Stakeholder engagement and decision support are key objectives in reducing Arizona's vulnerability in light of the potential for severe, sustained drought. The drivers of drought conditions in Arizona include the El Nino-Southem Oscillation, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. CR *AM ASS STAT CLIM, 2001, POL STAT CLIM VAR CH *AR GOV DROUGHT TA, 2004, WELC GDTF *NAT WEATH SERV, 2004, CURR OV DROUGHT COND *NEW MEX DROUGHT T, 2003, NEW MEX DROUGHT PLAN *WGA, 2004, DROUGHT EARL WARN SY ACUNASOTO R, 2002, EMERG INFECT DIS, V8, P360 ADAMS DK, 1997, B AM METEOROL SOC, V78, P2197 ALLAN RJ, 1996, EL NINO SO OSCILLATI BROWN DP, 2002, ATMOSPHERIC SCI LETT CASTRO CL, 2001, J CLIMATE, V14, P4449 CAYAN DR, 1999, J CLIMATE, V12, P2881 COLE J, 2002, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V29 DALY C, 1994, J APPL METEOROL, V33, P140 DALY C, 2004, P 14 AM MET SOC C AP DIAZ HF, 2001, INT J CLIMATOL, V21, P1845 EBBESMEYER CC, 1991, P 7 ANN PAC CLIM PAC, P115 ENFIELD DB, 2001, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V28, P2077 GEDALOF Z, 2001, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V28, P1515 GIBBONS M, 1994, NEW PRODUCTION KNOWL GRAY ST, 2003, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V30 GUTZLER DS, 2002, WEATHER FORECAST, V17, P1163 HACKOS JT, 1998, USER TASK ANAL INTER HARTMANN HC, 2002, B AM METEOROL SOC, V83, P683 HEREFORD R, 2002, 11902 USGS HOERLING MP, 2002, J CLIMATE, V15, P2184 JACOBS K, 2003, P U COL NAT RES LAW JASANOFF S, 1998, HUMAN CHOICE CLIMATE, V1, P1 KILADIS GN, 1989, J CLIMATOL, V2, P1069 MANTUA NJ, 1997, B AM METEOROL SOC, V78, P1069 MCCABE GJ, 1999, INT J CLIMATOL, V19, P1399 MCCABE GJ, 2004, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V101, P12 MCKEE TB, 1993, AM MET SOC 8 C APPL, P179 MCKEE TB, 1995, AM MET SOC 9 C APPL, P233 MCKEE TB, 2000, HIST DROUGHT COLORAD MCPHEE J, 2004, DROUGHT CLIMATE ARIZ MEKO D, 1995, WATER RESOUR BULL, V31, P789 MILLER AJ, 1994, OCEANOGRAPHY, V7, P21 MOLOTCH NP, 2004, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V31 MOLOTCH NP, 2004, HYDROLOGICAL PROCESS, V18 NI FB, 2002, INT J CLIMATOL, V22, P1645 NICHOLLS N, 1999, B AM METEOROL SOC, V80, P1385 NIELSEN J, 1994, USABILITY INSPECTION REDMOND KT, 1991, WATER RESOUR RES, V27, P2381 SAREWITZ D, 2000, PREDICTION SCI DECIS SHEPPARD PR, 2002, CLIMATE RES, V21, P219 STAHLE DW, 1998, B AM METEOROL SOC, V79, P2137 STAHLE DW, 2000, EOS, V81, P212 STEINEMANN A, 2003, J AM WATER RESOUR AS, V39, P1217 STERN PC, 1999, MAKING CLIMATE FOREC SVOBODA M, 2002, B AM METEOROL SOC, V83, P1181 SWETNAM TW, 1998, J CLIMATE, V11, P3128 TUFTE ER, 1990, ENVISIONING INFORMAT WILHITE DA, 2000, DROUGHT DROUGHT MITI, P149 WILHITE DA, 2000, J AM WATER RESOUR AS, V36, P697 WILHITE DA, 2000, NATURAL HAZARDS DISA, P158 ZHANG Y, 1997, J CLIMATE, V10, P1004 NR 56 TC 1 J9 J AM WATER RESOUR ASSOC BP 437 EP 445 PY 2005 PD APR VL 41 IS 2 GA 924NP UT ISI:000228985800017 ER PT J AU Klepper, G Peterson, S TI Trading hot-air. The influence of permit allocation rules, market power and the US withdrawal from the Kyoto Protocol SO ENVIRONMENTAL & RESOURCE ECONOMICS LA English DT Article C1 Kiel Inst World Econ, D-24100 Kiel, Germany. RP Klepper, G, Kiel Inst World Econ, D-24100 Kiel, Germany. AB After the conferences in Bonn and Marrakech, it is likely that international emissions trading will be realized in the near future. Major influences on the permit market are the the institutional detail, the participation structure and the treatment of hot-air. Different scenarios not only differ in their implications for the demand and supply of permits and thus the permit price, but also in their allocative effects. In this paper we discuss likely the institutional designs for permit allocation in the hot-air economies and the use of market power and quantify the resulting effects by using the computable general equilibrium model DART. It turns out that the amount of hot-air supplied will be small if hot-air economies cooperate in their decisions. Under welfare maximization, more hot-air supplied than in the case where governments try to maximize revenues from permit sales. CR *EIA, 2002, INT EN OUTL 2003 EN *IETA, 2001, IETA SUMM MARR ACC M WATSON RT, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, V1, P1 BABIKER MH, 2002, 82 MIT JOINT PROGR S BARON R, 1999, MARKET POWER MARKET BARON R, 2002, COMENVEPOCIEASLT2002 BERNSTEIN P, 1999, ENERGY J, P221 BOEHRINGER C, 2001, 0158 ZEW BOEHRINGER C, 2002, ENERGY J, V23, P51 BURNIAUX JM, 1999, IMPORTANT MARKET POW DENELZEN MGJ, 2001, 728001016 RIVM DENELZEN MGJ, 2001, 728001017 RIVM DENELZEN MGJ, 2002, CLIM POLICY, V2, P111 HALL RE, 1999, Q J ECON, V114, P83 HARRISON D, 2002, EVALUATION ALTERNATI KLAASSEN G, 2002, C GLOB TRAD KIEL 30 LOESCHEL A, 2002, EC ENV IMPLICATIONS MANNE AS, 2001, 0112 AEI BROOK JOINT MISSFELD F, 2002, 592002 FEEM PALTSEV SV, 2000, KYOTO PROTOCOL HOT A SPRINGER K, 1998, 883 KIEL I WORLD EC STEENBERGHE VV, 2003, CO2 ABATEMENT COSTS WEYANT JP, 1999, ENERGY J SPECIAL ISS NR 23 TC 1 J9 ENVIRON RESOUR ECON BP 205 EP 227 PY 2005 PD OCT VL 32 IS 2 GA 965KF UT ISI:000231948700002 ER PT J AU Jose, AM Sosa, LM Cruz, NA TI Vulnerability assessment of Angat water reservoir to climate change SO WATER AIR AND SOIL POLLUTION LA English DT Article C1 NWRB,EDSA,QUEZON,PHILIPPINES. RP Jose, AM, PAGASA,1424 QUEZON AVE,QUEZON,PHILIPPINES. AB Global warming due to an anticipated doubling of carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere is expected to alter the earth's climate system within the next century. The potential changes in the climate system could affect hydrological cycles and processes. Possible impacts of climate change on water resources should be assessed to evaluate probable adaptation measures. In the Philippines, a preliminary assessment of the vulnerability of water resources to climate change and variability was undertaken. For this particular study, the Angat Reservoir was chosen as the study area Because of its socioeconomic importance, it is useful to assess its vulnerability to climate change. A rainfall-runoff simulation model, WATBAL, was used to determine the effect of temperature and rainfall changes, based on CO2 doubling, on inflow to the reservoir. Climate change scenarios developed from results from three general circulation models and incremental changes were used. The results showed that changes in temperature and rainfall could affect runoff either positively or negatively. Using the temperature and rainfall changes from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory model there was a 32% increase in runoff and with the Canadian Climate Centre Model, thee was a 15% decrease in runoff. Under a climate scenario generated by the United Kingdom Meteorological Office model, runoff is estimated to increase by 5%. The use of incremental scenarios revealed the strong sensitivity of runoff to changes in rainfall as compared with changes in temperature. CR *ASEAN SUBC CLIM A, 1982, ASEAN CLIM ATL *IPCC, 1992, SCI ASS CLIM CHANG *IPCC, 1995, CLIM CHANG 1995 IPCC, V2 *PAGASA, 1995, MONTHL MEAN ANN CLIM ASUNCION J, 1980, MEAN STREAMLINES ISO BOER GJ, 1992, J CLIMATE, V5, P1045 INNA N, 1991, SIMULATING EFFECTS G JOSE AM, 1989, THESIS U PHILIPPINES JOSE AM, 1992, PRELIMINARY ASSESSME JOSE AM, 1993, PRELIMINARY STUDY IM MITCHELL JFB, 1990, CLIMATE CHANGE IPCC ROSACAY DA, 1989, ANGAT DAM LEVEL MANA YATES D, 1994, WP9445 IIASA YATES D, 1994, WP9464 IIASA NR 14 TC 1 J9 WATER AIR SOIL POLLUT BP 191 EP 201 PY 1996 PD SEP VL 92 IS 1-2 GA VM538 UT ISI:A1996VM53800020 ER PT J AU Tol, RSJ Fankhauser, S Smith, JB TI The scope for adaptation to climate change: what can we learn from the impact literature? SO GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS LA English DT Article C1 Vrije Univ Amsterdam, Inst Environm Studies, Amsterdam, Netherlands. World Bank, Washington, DC 20433 USA. RP Tol, RSJ, Vrije Univ Amsterdam, Inst Environm Studies, Amsterdam, Netherlands. AB Neither the costs nor the benefits of adaptation to climate change have been systematically studied so far. This paper discusses the extent to which the vast body of literature on climate change impacts can provide insights into the scope and likely cost of adaptation. The ways in which the impacts literature deals with adaptation can be grouped into four categories: no adaptation, arbitrary adaptation observed adaptation (analogues), and modeled adaptation (optimization), All four cases are characterized by the simple assumptions made about the mechanisms of adaptation. No or only scant attention is paid to the process of adapting to a new climate. Adaptation analysis has to acknowledge that people will be neither dumb nor brilliant at adapting. They are likely to see the need for change, but may be constrained in their ability to adapt or in their comprehension of the permanence and direction of change, (C) 1998 Published by Elsevier Science Ltd, All rights reserved. CR *DELFT HYDR, 1993, SEA LEV RIS GLOB VUL *IPCC, 1994, WORLD COAST C NOORDW ADAMS RM, 1990, NATURE, V345, P219 ADAMS RM, 1995, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V30, P147 CARTER TR, 1994, IPCC TECHNICAL GUIDE CLINE WR, 1992, EC GLOBAL WARMING DARWIN RF, 1995, 703 US AGR DEP AGR DENNIS KC, 1995, J COASTAL RES, V14, P243 DOWNING TE, 1997, MITIGATION ADAPTATIO, V2, P19 EASTERLING WE, 1993, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V24, P23 FANKHAUSER S, 1995, ENVIRON PLANN A, V27, P299 FANKHAUSER S, 1995, VALUING CLIMATE CHAN FANKHAUSER S, 1997, IN PRESS ECOLOGICAL GADGIL S, 1988, IMPACT CLIMATE VARIA, V2 GLANTZ MH, 1988, SOC RESPONSES REGION GLANTZ MH, 1996, ADAPTING CLIMATE CHA, P407 HOPE C, 1993, ENERG POLICY, V21, P327 HULME M, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE SO AF KALKSTEIN LS, 1989, POTENTIAL EFFECTS GL KALKSTEIN LS, 1997, ENV HLTH PERSPECT, V105, P2 KATTENBERG A, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995 LEATHERMAN SP, 1995, J COASTAL RES, V14, P1 MAGALHES AR, 1996, ADAPTING CLIMATE CHA, P80 MENDELSOHN R, IN PRESS IMPACTS CLI MENDELSOHN R, 1994, AM ECON REV, V84, P753 MORRISETTE PM, 1988, SOC RESPONSES REGION NICHOLLS RJ, 1995, J COASTAL RES, V14, P303 NORDHAUS WD, 1991, ECON J, V101, P920 PARRY ML, 1988, IMPACT CLIMATE VARIA PEARCE DW, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995 REILLY JM, 1994, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V4, P24 ROSENTHAL DH, 1995, ENERGY J, V16, P77 ROSENZWEIG C, 1994, NATURE, V367, P133 SMIT B, 1996, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V33, P7 SMIT B, 1997, IN PRESS CANADIAN GE SMITHERS J, 1997, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V7, P129 SOHNGEN BL, 1996, IMPACT CLIMATE CHANG STAKHIV EZ, 1996, ADAPTATION CLIMATE C TITUS J, 1992, GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANG TITUS JG, 1991, COAST MANAGE, V19, P171 TOL RSJ, 1995, ENVIRON RESOUR ECON, V5, P353 VOLONTE C, 1995, J COASTAL RES, V14, P285 VOLONTE CR, 1995, J COASTAL RES, V14, P262 WATSON RT, 1998, REGIONAL IMPACTS CLI, V1, P1 WEST JJ, 1997, CLIMATE CHANGE RISK YOHE GW, 1996, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V32, P387 NR 46 TC 16 J9 GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANGE BP 109 EP 123 PY 1998 PD JUL VL 8 IS 2 GA 101FX UT ISI:000074859900002 ER PT J AU Rajan, SC TI Climate change dilemma: technology, social change or both? An examination of long-term transport policy choices in the United States SO ENERGY POLICY LA English DT Article C1 Tellus Inst, Energy Grp, Boston, MA 02116 USA. RP Rajan, SC, Tellus Inst, Energy Grp, 11 Arlington St, Boston, MA 02116 USA. AB Time is fast running out for formulating a viable global climate policy regime even as it seems obvious that the major initiative will have to come from the United States, which Currently appears indisposed to take any meaningful action at all. This paper reviews the prospects for emissions reductions in the US passenger transport sector and the technical, economic, social, and political barriers to developing policies that focus solely on technology or pricing. Using scenarios it shows that, in order to meet stringent emissions targets over the coming half-century, technology and pricing policies may have to be supplemented by strategies to change life-styles and land uses in ways that effectively reduce car dependence. In the medium to long term, bold initiatives that treat vehicle users as citizens capable of shifting their interests and behaviour could form kernels of social change that in turn provide opportunities for removing many of the social and political constraints. (c) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *AEO, 2003, ANN EN OUTL EN INF A *ICPP, 2001, CLIM CHANG 2001 SCI *IPCC, 1999, IPCC SPEC REP AV GLO MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 *IWG, 2000, ORNLCON476 IWG *TCRP, 2002, 74 TCRP *TCRP, 2003, TRAV MATT MIT CLIM C *WBGU, 2003, CLIM PROT STRAT 21 C AARTS H, 2000, J ENVIRON PSYCHOL, V20, P75 AGRAS J, 1999, CONTEMP ECON POLICY, V17, P296 ASLAM MA, 2002, BUILDING KYOTO PROTO BAILIE A, 2001, AM WAY KYOTO PROTOCO BENAKIVA ME, 1985, MIT PRESS SERIES TRA, V9 BERNOW S, 2001, ENV FUTURES US EARLY BOARNET M, 2001, TRANSPORT RES A-POL, V35, P823 BOARNET MG, 2001, TRAVEL DESIGN INFLUE BROWN MB, 2001, SCI TECHNOL HUM VAL, V26, P56 CALDEIRA K, 2003, SCIENCE, V299, P2052 CALTHORPE P, 2001, REGIONAL CITY PLANNI CERVERO R, 1986, SUBURBAN GRIDLOCK CRANE R, 1998, TRANSPORT RES D-TR E, V3, P225 DAVIS SC, 2003, TRANSPORTATION ENERG DELUCCHI M, 2000, SHOULD WE TRY GET PR DUNLAP RE, 1984, SOC SCI QUART, V65, P1013 EWING R, 2003, AM J HEALTH PROMOT, V18, P47 EWING RH, 1994, ENV RESOURCES ISSUES, V21 FREEMAN L, 2001, J AM PLANN ASSOC, V67, P69 GORHAM R, 2003, SOCIAL CHANGE SUSTAI GREENE DL, 1998, ENERG POLICY, V26, P595 GREENING LA, 2004, ENERG ECON, V26, P1 GRUBLER A, 1991, ENERGY SUSTAINABLE D, P1397 HAKIM D, 2002, NY TIMES 1210, C1 HANDY SL, 2003, ANN M TRANSP RES BOA HEAPS C, 1998, CONVENTIONAL WORLDS HOFFERT MI, 2002, SCIENCE, V295, P981 KEITH DW, 2003, SCIENCE, V301, P315 KITAMURA R, 1997, TRANSPORTATION, V24, P125 LACKNER KS, 2003, SCIENCE, V300, P1677 LAVE C, 1999, ESSAYS TRANSPORTATIO LEIMBACH M, 2003, ENERG POLICY, V31, P1033 MCCRIGHT AM, 2003, SOC PROBL, V50, P348 MCFARLAND AS, 1984, ANNU REV ENERG ENV, V9, P501 MYERS D, 2001, HOUS POLICY DEBATE, V12, P633 NAKICENOVIC N, 2003, MODEL RUNS MESSAGE C NEUMAYER E, 2000, ECOL ECON, V33, P185 PLOTKIN SE, 1997, ENERG POLICY, V25, P1179 POTERBA JM, 1991, TAX POLICY EC RAJAN SC, 1996, PITT SERIES POLICY I SALOMON I, 2002, SOCIAL CHANGE SUSTAI SCHAFER A, 2000, TRANSPORT RES A-POL, V34, P171 SHELLER M, 2000, INT J URBAN REGIONAL, V24, P737 SKOCPOL T, 1993, ACTES RECHERCHE MAR, P21 STEG L, 1999, PUBLIC MONEY MANAGE, V19, P63 STERN PC, 2000, J SOC ISSUES, V56, P407 TAYLOR MAP, 2003, TRANSPORT POLICY, V10, P165 TERTOOLEN G, 1998, TRANSPORT RES A-POL, V32, P171 VERPLANKEN B, 1994, J APPL SOC PSYCHOL, V24, P285 WALLS M, 1999, NATL TAX J, V52, P53 WEST SE, 2004, J PUBLIC EC, V88 ZAHAVI Y, 1981, DOTRSPADBP107 NR 60 TC 1 J9 ENERG POLICY BP 664 EP 679 PY 2006 PD APR VL 34 IS 6 GA 016VQ UT ISI:000235649300003 ER PT J AU Cowie, A Pingoud, K Schlamadinger, B TI Stock changes or fluxes? Resolving terminological confusion in the debate on land-use change and forestry SO CLIMATE POLICY LA English DT Review C1 NSW Dept Primary Ind, Beecroft, NSW 2119, Australia. Finnish Forest Res Inst, FI-00170 Helsinki, Finland. Cooperat Res Ctr Greenhouse Accounting, Canberra, ACT, Australia. VTT, FI-02044 Espoo, Finland. Joanneum Res Inst Energy Res, A-8010 Graz, Austria. RP Cowie, A, NSW Dept Primary Ind, POB 100, Beecroft, NSW 2119, Australia. AB This article collates definitions of some key terms commonly used in greenhouse gas reporting and accounting for the Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) sector, and highlights areas of ambiguity and divergent interpretations of key concepts. It uses the example of harvested wood products to demonstrate the impact of different interpretations. The objective is to facilitate clear communication amongst negotiators and practitioners in relation to the terms emissions, removals, sources and sink. Confusion and misunderstandings that have arisen in the past are rooted in diverging interpretations of the terms 'emissions' and 'removals' in the context of land use and wood products. One interpretation sees emissions and removals to be approximated by a change in carbon stocks in a number of selected carbon pools that may include or exclude harvested wood products. Another interpretation views emissions and removals as gross fluxes between the atmosphere and the land/wood products system. The various alternative approaches that have been proposed for reporting for harvested wood products are applicable to one or the other of these interpretations: the stock-change and production approaches, focused on stock changes, are applicable to the first interpretation; whereas the atmospheric flow and simple decay approaches focus on fluxes, as in the second interpretation. Whether emissions/removals are approximated by stock change or from gross fluxes, it is critical that a consistent approach is applied across the whole LULUCF/AFOLU sector. Approaches based on stock change are recommended over those based on fluxes. CR *AGO, 2005, AUSTR METH EST GREEN *IPCC, 2003, TERMS REF TABL CONT *UNFCCC, 1992, UN FRAM CONV CLIM CH *UNFCCC, 1997, KYOT PROT UN FRAM CO *UNFCCC, 2001, MARR ACC MARR DECL *UNFCCC, 2003, FCCCTP20037 UNFCCC *UNFCCC, 2004, GUID PREP NAT COMM P *UNFCCC, 2005, FCCCCP200410ADD2 UNF *UNFCCC, 2005, TABL COMM REP FORM L APPS M, 1997, ACCOUNTING SYSTEM CO BAGGOTT SL, 2005, UK GREENHOUSE GAS IN BROWN S, 1998, EVALUATING APPROACHE CIAIS P, 2006, IN PRESS GLOBAL GEOC COWIE AL, 2005, 38 IEA FORDROBERTSON J, 2003, 20035 MAF HOUGHTON JT, 1997, GREENHOUSE GAS INVEN HOUGHTON JT, 1997, GREENHOUSE GAS INVEN, V1 HOUGHTON JT, 1997, GREENHOUSE GAS INVEN, V3 LIM B, 1999, ENVIRON SCI POLICY, V2, P207 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 NABUURS GJ, 2001, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V49, P377 NABUURS GJ, 2003, GOOD PRACTICE GUIDAN PENMAN J, 2003, IPCC NATL GREENHOUSE PINGOUD K, 2004, 38 IEA SCHLAMADINGER B, 2003, GOOD PRACTICE GUIDAN WATSON RT, 2000, LAND USE LAND USE CH WINJUM JK, 1998, FOREST SCI, V44, P272 NR 27 TC 0 J9 CLIM POLICY BP 161 EP 179 PY 2006 VL 6 IS 2 GA 115XL UT ISI:000242767000001 ER PT J AU Sivakumar, MVK Das, HP Brunini, O TI Impacts of present and future climate variability and change on agriculture and forestry in the arid and semi-arid tropics SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 World Meteorol Org, CH-1211 Geneva, Switzerland. Indian Meteorol Dept, Pune 411005, Maharashtra, India. Ctr Ecol & Biophys, BR-13020430 Campinas, SP, Brazil. RP Sivakumar, MVK, World Meteorol Org, 7Bis Ave Paix, CH-1211 Geneva, Switzerland. AB The arid and semi-arid regions account for approximately 30% of the world total area and are inhabited by approximately 20% of the total world population. Issues of present and future climate variability and change on agriculture and forestry in the arid and semi-arid tropics of the world were examined and discussion under each of these issues had been presented separately for Asia, Africa and Latin America. Several countries in tropical Asia have reported increasing surface temperature trends in recent decades. Although, there is no definite trend discernible in the long-term mean for precipitation for the tropical Asian region, many countries have shown a decreasing trend in rainfall in the past three decades. African rainfall has changed substantially over the last 60 yr and a number of theoretical, modelling and empirical analyses have suggested that noticeable changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme events, including floods may occur when there are only small changes in climate. Climate in Latin America is affected by the El Ni (n) over tildeo-southern oscillation (ENSO) phases and there is a close relationship between the increase and decrease of rainfall depending upon the warm or cold phases of the phenomenon. Over land regions of Asia, the projected area-averaged annual mean warming is likely to be 1.6 +/- 0.2 degrees C in the 2020s, 3.1 +/- 0.3 degrees C in the 2050s, and 4.6 +/- 0.4 degrees C in the 2080s and the models show high uncertainty in projections of future winter and summer precipitation. Future annual warming across Africa is projected to range from 0.2 degrees C per decade to more than 0.5 degrees C per decade, while future changes in mean seasonal rainfall in Africa are less well defined. In Latin America, projections indicate a slight increase in temperature and changes in precipitation. Impacts of climate variability and changes are discussed with suitable examples. Agricultural productivity in tropical Asia is sensitive not only to temperature increases, but also to changes in the nature and characteristics of monsoon. Simulations of the impacts of climate change using crop simulation models show that crop yield decreases due to climate change could have serious impacts on food security in tropical Asia. Climate change is likely to cause environmental and social stress in many of Asia's rangelands and drylands. In the arid and semi-arid tropics of Africa, which are already having difficulty coping with environmental stress, climate change resulting in increased frequencies of drought poses the greatest risk to agriculture. Impacts were described as those related to projected temperature increases, the possible consequences to water balance of the combination of enhanced temperatures and changes in precipitation and sensitivity of different crops/cropping systems to projected changes. In Latin America, agriculture and water resources are most affected through the impact of extreme temperatures (excessive heat, frost) and the changes in rainfall (droughts, flooding). Adaptation potential in the arid and semi-arid tropics of Asia, Africa and Latin America was described using suitable examples. It is emphasized that approaches need to be prescriptive and dynamic, rather than descriptive and static. 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P297 SOMARATNE S, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE VARIA, P129 SRIVASTAVA HN, 1992, MAUSAM, V43, P7 SUPPIAH R, 1997, INT J CLIMATOL, V17, P87 THORNTHWAITE CW, 1948, GEOGR REV, V38, P55 TOUKOUA D, 1986, AGROMETEOROLOG GROUN TUCKER CJ, 1991, SCIENCE, V253, P299 VERGARA G, 2001, AN 12 C BRAS AGR 3 R, P131 WAGGONER PE, 1992, INT CROP SCI, V1 WAGNER D, 1996, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V33, P385 WEBSTER PJ, 1998, J GEOPHYS RES-OCEANS, V103, P14451 WHETTON P, 1994, CLIMATE IMPACT ASSES, P21 WIGLEY TML, 1985, NATURE, V316, P106 WIJERATNE MA, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE VARIA WULLSCHLEGER SD, 1992, CAN J FOREST RES, V22, P1717 ZHU YL, 1996, INT J CLIMATOL, V16, P617 NR 137 TC 3 J9 CLIMATIC CHANGE BP 31 EP 72 PY 2005 PD MAY VL 70 IS 1-2 GA 942EG UT ISI:000230265100004 ER PT J AU Kane, SM Shogren, JF TI Linking adaptation and mitigation in climate change policy SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 NOAA, Off Global Programs, Silver Spring, MD 20940 USA. Univ Wyoming, Dept Econ & Finance, Laramie, WY 82071 USA. RP Kane, SM, NOAA, Off Global Programs, Silver Spring, MD 20940 USA. AB How people privately and collectively adapt to climate risk can affect the costs and benefits of public mitigation policy (e.g., Kyoto); an obvious point often neglected in actual policy making. Herein we use the economic theory of endogenous risk to address this optimal mix of mitigation and adaptation strategies, and examine how increased variability in climate change threats affects this mix. We stress that a better understanding of the cross-links between mitigation and adaptation would potentially make it possible to provide more risk reduction with less wealth. Policies that are formulated without considering the cross-links can unintentionally undermine the effectiveness of public sector policies and programs because of unaddressed conflicts between the strategies. We also discuss the cross-disciplinary lessons to be learned from this literature, and identify important research questions to spur discussion in the next round of inquiry. 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The social and economic implications of atmospheric change and biodiversity SO ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING AND ASSESSMENT LA English DT Article C1 Int Federat Inst Adv Studies, Toronto, ON M5R 2S9, Canada. RP Timmerman, P, Int Federat Inst Adv Studies, 39 Spadina Rd, Toronto, ON M5R 2S9, Canada. AB The social and economic implications of atmospheric change on biodiversity need to be seen in a global context of major shifts in the conceptualization and management of our relationship with nature. Traditionally, we have conceptualized the atmosphere and the other creatures of the biosphere as separate from the human, but their quasi-autonomy is now becoming subject to more and more human management, This raises not only economic issues, but social, political, and ethical concerns that will have substantial influence on public policy. Among these are the commodification of genetic material; the privatization of traditional knowledge, acid the management of information. in this broader context, the paper examines an array of current and proposed strategies of response to changes in biodiversity as a result of climatic and other stresses. CR *BIOD WORK GROUP, 1994, CAN BIOD STRAT CAN R *ENV CAN, 1994, BIOD CAN SCI ASS *IIED, 1992, WHAT IS BIOD WORTH D *MIN FOR AFF DEV C, 1995, BIOL DIV *UN ENV PROGR, 1992, WORLD ENV 1972 1992 *US DEP INT COMM E, 1994, BIODIVERSITY ECOSYST GIDDENS A, 1990, CONSEQUENCES MODERNI GOODLAND R, 1993, ECOL ECON, V8, P85 HARRIESJONES P, IN PRESS SIGNAL FAIL MARKHAM A, 1995, SOME LIKE IT HOT CLI MCNALLY R, 1994, PHILOSOPHY, P211 MEYER WB, 1995, GEOGRAPHIES GLOBAL C, P302 MUNN RE, 1996, ATMOSPHERIC CHANGE B NAGEL T, 1986, VIEW NOWHERE PERRINGS C, 1994, BIODIVERSITY CONSERV PETERS RL, 1992, GLOBAL WARMING BIOL RANDALL A, 1988, BIODIVERSITY, P217 SWANSON TM, 1995, EC ECOLOGY BIODIVERS VONWEIZSACKER C, 1993, GLOBAL ECOLOGY NEW A, P117 NR 19 TC 0 J9 ENVIRON MONIT ASSESS BP 111 EP 122 PY 1998 PD FEB VL 49 IS 2-3 GA YX045 UT ISI:000072000900002 ER PT J AU Metz, B Berk, M den Elzen, M de Vries, B van Vuuren, D TI Towards an equitable global climate change regime: compatibility with Article 2 of the Climate Change Convention and the link with sustainable development SO CLIMATE POLICY LA English DT Article C1 Natl Inst Publ Hlth & Environm, RIVM, NL-3720 BA Bilthoven, Netherlands. RP Metz, B, Natl Inst Publ Hlth & Environm, RIVM, POB 1, NL-3720 BA Bilthoven, Netherlands. AB In this paper we argue that the discussion on how to get to an equitable global climate change regime requires a long-term context. Some key dimensions of this discussion are responsibility, capability and development needs. Each of these, separately or in combination, has been used in designing schemes for differentiation of commitments to limit or reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Many implementation problems of these proposals are often side-stepped. In particular, some proposals may be incompatible with Article 2 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), i.e. they are unlikely to keep the option open of long-term stabilisation of atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations at relatively low levels. We present some evidence that shifting the emphasis from emission reduction to sustainable development needs can contribute significantly to relieving the threat of human-induced climate change. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. 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RP Pandey, DN, Indian Inst Forest Management, Bhopal 462003, India. AB Fossil-fuel burning and deforestation have emerged as principal anthropogenic sources of rising atmospheric CO2 and consequential global warming. Variability in temperature, precipitation, snow cover, sea level and extreme weather events provide collateral evidence of global climate change. I review recent advances on causes and consequences of global climate change and its impact on nature and society. I also examine options for climate change mitigation. Impact of climate change on ecology, economy and society the three pillars of sustainability - is increasing. Emission reduction, although most useful, is also politically sensitive for economic reasons. Proposals of the geoengineering for iron fertilization of oceans or manipulation of solar flux using stratospheric scatters are yet not feasible for scientific and environmental reasons. Forests as carbon sinks, therefore, are required to play a multifunctional role that includes, but is not limited to, biodiversity conservation and maintenance of ecosystem functions; yield of goods and services to the society; enhancing the carbon storage in trees, woody vegetation and soils; and providing social and economic well-being of people. This paper explores strategies in that direction and concludes that the management of multifunctional forests over landscape continuum, employing tools of conservation biology and restoration ecology, shall be the vital option for climate change mitigation in future. 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1998, FOREST SCI, V44, P272 YADAV RR, 1997, QUATERNARY RES, V48, P187 NR 128 TC 6 J9 CURR SCI BP 593 EP 602 PY 2002 PD SEP 10 VL 83 IS 5 GA 595CT UT ISI:000178089800022 ER PT J AU van den Bergh, JCJM TI Optimal climate policy is a utopia: from quantitative to qualitative cost-benefit analysis SO ECOLOGICAL ECONOMICS LA English DT Article C1 Free Univ Amsterdam, Fac Econ & Business Adm, Dept Spatial Econ, NL-1081 HV Amsterdam, Netherlands. Free Univ Amsterdam, Inst Environm Studies, NL-1081 HV Amsterdam, Netherlands. RP van den Bergh, JCJM, Free Univ Amsterdam, Fac Econ & Business Adm, Dept Spatial Econ, De Boelelaan 1105, NL-1081 HV Amsterdam, Netherlands. AB The dominance of quantitative cost-benefit analysis (CBA) and optimality concepts in the economic analysis of climate policy is criticised. Among others, it is argued to be based in a misplaced interpretation of policy for a complex climate-economy system as being analogous to individual inter-temporal welfare optimisation. The transfer of quantitative CBA and optimality concepts reflects an overly ambitious approach that does more harm than good. An alternative approach is to focus the attention on extreme events, structural change and complexity. It is argued that a qualitative rather than a quantitative CBA that takes account of these aspects can support the adoption of a minimax regret approach or precautionary principle in climate policy. This means: implement stringent GHG reduction policies as soon as possible. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 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RP Meadows, ME, Univ Cape Town, Dept Environm & Geog Sci, ZA-7701 Rondebosch, South Africa. AB The Western Cape Province of South Africa has a long history of human occupation and utilisation; the impact of colonial settlement (late 17th century onwards) on agriculture has been especially prominent. The Mediterranean-type climate of the Western Cape results in landscapes which are potentially susceptible to land degradation, perhaps even desertification. The Swartland is a gently undulating inland plateau underlain largely by fine-grained and nutrient-rich shales of the pre-Cambrian Malmesbury group. Agriculture is the dominant land use to the extent of wholesale landscape transformation. The area has been subject to significant levels of land degradation in the past, manifesting itself as widespread gully erosion. During the 1940s, the region was described as on the verge of economic collapse due to the severity of soil erosion, but concerted soil conservation and education efforts under the political dispensation of the time appear to have averted that scenario. The region now faces the combined challenges of potentially rapid climate change under a considerably altered socio-economic and political order. Downscaled climate change scenarios facilitate a regional assessment of changes in the parameters affecting soil erosion susceptibility in the Swartland and leads to a consideration of the implications of such scenarios for the continuation of contemporary land use practices. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *IPCC, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 ACOCKS JPH, 1988, MEM BOT SURV S AFR, V57, P1 BAXTER AJ, 1994, HIST BIOL, V9, P61 BENNETT HH, 1945, SOIL EROSION LAND US CONACHER AJ, 1998, LAND DEGRADATION MED DELIUS P, 2000, J S AFR STUD, V26, P719 DODSON B, 2003, IN PRESS FALLING STO DODSON B, 2003, IN PRESS INT J ENV H HEWITSON BC, 1996, CLIMATE RES, V7, P85 HOFFMAN MT, 1997, VEGETATION SO AFRICA, P507 HOFFMAN MT, 1999, LAND DEGRADATION S A HOFFMAN MT, 2001, NATURE DIVIDED LAND HUNTLEY B, 1989, S AFRICAN ENV 21 CEN MCCANN JC, 1999, GREEN LAND BROWN LAN MEADOWS ME, IN PRESS GEOGRAPHICA MEADOWS ME, IN PRESS S AFRICAN J MOREL A, 1998, THESIS U CAPE TOWN PLATZKY L, 1985, SURPLUS PEOPLE FORCE PRESTONWHYTE RA, 1988, ATMOSPHERE WEATHER S SIMON D, 2000, GEOGRAPHY S AFRICA C, P89 TALBOT WJ, 1947, SWARTLAND SANDVELD TANKARD AJ, 1982, CRUSTAL EVOLUTION S THOMAS DSG, 1994, DESERTIFICATION EXPL VERSTER E, 1992, ENV MANAGEMENT S AFR, P181 WATSON HK, 1997, S AFRICAN GEOGRAPHIC, V79, P27 WEAVER A, 1989, S AFRICAN GEOGRAPHIC, V71, P32 NR 26 TC 1 J9 ENVIRON SCI POLICY BP 17 EP 28 PY 2003 VL 6 IS 1 GA 739NK UT ISI:000186353200003 ER PT J AU Manyena, SB TI The concept of resilience revisited SO DISASTERS LA English DT Article C1 Northumbria Univ, Disaster & Dev Ctr, Sch Appl Sci, Newcastle Upon Tyne NE1 8ST, Tyne & Wear, England. RP Manyena, SB, Northumbria Univ, Disaster & Dev Ctr, Sch Appl Sci, 6 North St, Newcastle Upon Tyne NE1 8ST, Tyne & Wear, England. AB The intimate connections between disaster recovery by and the resilience of affected communities have become common features of disaster risk reduction programmes since the adoption of The Hyogo Framework for Action 2005-2015. Increasing attention is now paid to the capacity of disaster-affected communities to 'bounce back' or to recover with little or no external assistance following a disaster. This highlights the need for a change in the disaster risk reduction work culture, with stronger emphasis being put on resilience rather than just need or vulnerability. However, varied conceptualisations of resilience pose new philosophical challenges. Yet achieving a consensus on the concept remains a test for disaster research and scholarship. This paper reviews the concept in terms of definitional issues, the role of vulnerability in resilience discourse and its meaning, and the differences between vulnerability and resilience. It concludes with some of the more immediately apparent implications of resilience thinking for the way we view and prepare for disasters. 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Govt Mali, Minist Dev Rural, Inst Econ Rurale, Bamako, Mali. RP Butt, TA, Texas A&M Univ, Dept Agr Econ, College Stn, TX 77843 USA. AB The Mali agricultural sector and the country's food security are potentially vulnerable to climate change. Policies may be able to mitigate some of the climate change vulnerability. This article investigates several policy changes that may reduce vulnerability, including climate-specific and other policies. The policy set includes migration of cropping patterns, development of high-temperature-resistant cultivars, reduction in soil productivity loss, cropland expansion, adoption of improved cultivars, and changes in trade patterns. When all policies are considered together.. results under climate change show an annual gain of $252 million in economic benefits as opposed to a $161 million loss without policy adjustment. Simultaneously, undernourishment is reduced to 17% of the Malian population as compared with 64% without policy adjustment. We also find tradeoffs in cases between economic benefits and undernourishment. Policies are also studied individually and collectively. Overall, the results indicate that policy can play an important role in reducing climate change vulnerability in Mali. 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SO ENVIRONMENT LA English DT Article CR *NAT RES COUNC, 2002, ABR CLIM CHANG IN SU ARNELL NW, 2002, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V53, P413 BARNETT J, 2001, MEANING ENV SECURITY BERK MM, 2001, CLIMATE POLICY, V1, P465 CHANGNON SA, 1999, NAT HAZARDS, V18, P287 CHANGNON SA, 2000, B AM METEOROL SOC, V81, P437 DELWORTH TL, 2000, J CLIMATE, V13, P721 DICKSON B, 2002, NATURE 0425, P832 GILLE ST, 2002, SCIENCE 0215, P1275 GLEICK PH, 1989, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V15, P309 GRITSEVSKYI A, 2000, ENERG POLICY, V28, P907 HERRON N, IN PRESS J ENV MANAG HOUGHTON JT, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 ISARIN RFB, 1999, EARTH-SCI REV, V48, P1 JONES RN, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P403 KIM K, 2001, GEOPHYSICAL RES LETT, V28, P293 LOCKWOOD JG, 2001, INT J CLIMATOLOGY, V21, P153 MATEAR RJ, 2000, GEOCHEMISTRY GEOPHYS, V1 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 MCGREGOR J, 1994, FOOD POLICY, V19, P120 METZ B, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 MULLER B, 2002, REJECTING KYOTO STUD MUNASINGHE M, 2000, GUIDANCE PAPERS CROS MYERS N, 1995, ENV EXODUS EMERGENT NAKICENOVIC N, 2000, EMISSIONS SCENARIOS PACHUAURI T, 2001, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V48, P273 PIELKE RA, 1998, WEATHER FORECAST 2, V13, P621 PITTOCK AB, 2002, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V53, P393 SCHNEIDER SH, 2001, NATURE, V411, P17 STOCKER TF, 1999, INT J EARTH SCI, V88, P365 STOCKER TF, 2000, QUATERNARY SCI REV, V19, P301 TOPPING J, 1997, CHEM ENG NEWS 0922, P22 WATSON RT, 1998, REGIONAL IMPACTS CLI, V1, P1 WATSON RT, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 WESTING AH, 1992, ENVIRON CONSERV, V19, P201 WIGLEY TML, 1996, NATURE, V379, P240 NR 36 TC 1 J9 ENVIRONMENT BP 20 EP 36 PY 2002 PD DEC VL 44 IS 10 GA 618UY UT ISI:000179436700004 ER PT J AU Schneider, SH Easterling, WE Mearns, LO TI Adaptation: Sensitivity to natural variability, agent assumptions and dynamic climate changes SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 Stanford Univ, Dept Biol Sci, Stanford, CA 94305 USA. Penn State Univ, Dept Geog, University Pk, PA 16802 USA. Natl Ctr Atmospher Res, Environm & Societal Impacts Grp, Boulder, CO 80307 USA. RP Schneider, SH, Stanford Univ, Dept Biol Sci, Stanford, CA 94305 USA. AB The role of adaptation in impact assessment and integrated assessment of climate policy is briefly reviewed. Agriculture in the US is taken as exemplary of this issue. Historic studies in which no adaptation is assumed (so-called "dumb farmer") versus farmer-agents blessed with perfect foresight (so-called "clairvoyant farmer") are contrasted, and considered limiting cases as compared to "realistic farmers." What kinds of decision rules such realistic farmer-agents would adopt to deal with climate change involves a range of issues. These include degrees of belief the climate is actually changing, knowledge about how it will change, foresight on how technology is changing, estimation of what will happen in competitive granaries and assumptions about what governmental policies will be in various regions and over time. Clearly, a transparent specification of such agent-based decision rules is essential to model adaptation explicitly in any impact assessment. Moreover, open recognition of the limited set of assumptions contained in any one study of adaptation demands that authors clearly note that each individual study can represent only a fraction of plausible outcomes. A set of calculations using the Erosion Productivity Impact Calculator (EPIC) crop model is offered here as an example of explicit decision rules on adaptive behavior on climate impacts. The model is driven by a 2xCO(2) regional climate model scenario (from which a "mock" transient scenario was devised) to calculate yield changes for farmer-agents that practice no adaptation, perfect adaptation and 20-year-lagged adaptation, the latter designed to mimic the masking effects of natural variability on farmers' capacity to see how climate is changing. The results reinforce the expectation that the likely effects of natural variability, which would mask a farmer's capacity to detect climate change, is to place the calculated impacts of climate changes in two regions of the US in between that of perfect and no adaptation. Finally, the use of so-called "hedonic" methods (in which land prices in different regions with different current average climates are used to derive implicitly farmers' adaptive responses to hypothesized future climate changes) is briefly reviewed. It is noted that this procedure in which space and time are substituted, amounts to "ergodic economics." Such cross-sectional analyses are static, and thus neglect the dynamics of both climate and societal evolution. Furthermore, such static methods usually consider only a single measure of change (local mean annual temperature), rather than higher moments like climatic variability, diurnal temperature range, etc. These implicit assumptions in ergodic economics make use of such cross-sectional studies limited for applications to integrated assessments of the actual dynamics of adaptive capacity. While all such methods are appropriate for sensitivity analyses and help to define a plausible range of outcomes, none is by itself likely to define the range of plausible adaptive capacities that might emerge in response to climate change scenarios. CR *DOE, 1980, 13 US DOE *NAT AC SCI, 1991, POL IMPL GREENH WARM ADAMS RM, 1999, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V41, P363 AUSUBEL JH, 1991, AM SCI, V79, P210 AYRES R, 1992, REGIONS GLOBAL WARMI CARTER TR, 1994, IPCC TECHNICAL GUIDE CHEN RS, 1983, SOCIAL SCI RES CLIMA DARWIN RF, 1999, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V41, P371 EASTERLING WE, UNPUB CLIM CHANGE EHRLICH PR, 1995, STORK PLOW GIORGI F, 1998, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V40, P457 HOUGHTON JT, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995 HULME M, 1999, NATURE, V397, P688 KAISER HM, 1993, AM J AGR ECON, V75, P387 KARL TR, 1998, B AM METEOROL SOC, V79, P231 KATES RW, 1985, CLIMATE IMPACT ASSES KOLSTAD CD, 1999, ADJUSTMENT COSTS ENV LORENZ EN, 1968, METEOROL MONOGR, V8, P1 LORENZ EN, 1970, J APPL METEOROL, V9, P325 MEARNS LO, UNPUB CLIM CHANGE MEARNS LO, 1984, J CLIM APPL METEOROL, V23, P1601 MENDELSOHN R, 1996, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V80, P55 MENDELSOHN R, 2000, IN PRESS CLIM CHANGE MORGAN MG, 1996, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V34, P337 MOSS RH, 1997, ELEMENTS CHANGE 1996 NORDHAUS WD, 1992, SCIENCE, V258, P1315 NORDHAUS WD, 1994, AM SCI, V82, P45 NORDHAUS WD, 1997, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V37, P315 OVERPECK JT, 1992, GEOLOGY, V20, P1071 REILLY JM, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, CH13 REILLY JM, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE INTEG, P47 RISBEY JS, 1999, MITIGATION ADAPTATIO, V4, P137 ROOT TL, 1995, SCIENCE, V269, P334 ROSENBERG NJ, 1992, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V21, P385 ROSENBERG NJ, 1993, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V24, P1 ROSENBERG NJ, 1994, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V4, P49 ROSENZWEIG C, 1994, NATURE, V367, P133 ROTHMAN DS, 1997, ENVIRON MONIT ASSESS, V46, P23 ROUGHGARDEN T, 1999, ENERG POLICY, V27, P415 SCHNEIDER SH, 1980, ANNU REV ENERG ENV, V5, P107 SCHNEIDER SH, 1985, GLOBAL POSSIBLE, P363 SCHNEIDER SH, 1996, NATO ASI SER, V137, P77 SCHNEIDER SH, 1997, ENVIRON MODEL ASSESS, V2, P229 SCHNEIDER SH, 2000, UNPUB PACIFIC ASIAN SMIT B, 1996, GREAT LAKES ST LAWRE, P125 SMITH JB, 1988, POTENTIAL EFFECTS GL, V1 SMITH JB, 1988, POTENTIAL EFFECTS GL, V2 WATTERSON IG, 1995, AUST METEOROL MAG, V44, P111 WEST JJ, 1998, CLIMATE CHANGE RISK WILLIAMS JR, 1990, USDA TECH B, V1768, P3 YOHE GW, 1990, COAST MANAGE, V18, P403 YOHE GW, 1996, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V32, P387 YOHE GW, 1991, POLICY SCI, V24, P245 YOHE GW, 1992, EC ISSUES GLOBAL CLI, P200 NR 54 TC 12 J9 CLIMATIC CHANGE BP 203 EP 221 PY 2000 PD APR VL 45 IS 1 GA 323WX UT ISI:000087588900012 ER PT J AU MOORE, EJ SMITH, JW TI CLIMATIC-CHANGE AND MIGRATION FROM OCEANIA - IMPLICATIONS FOR AUSTRALIA, NEW-ZEALAND AND THE UNITED-STATES-OF-AMERICA SO POPULATION AND ENVIRONMENT LA English DT Article C1 UNIV ADELAIDE,DEPT GEOG,ADELAIDE,SA 5005,AUSTRALIA. AB It is possible that climatic change may stimulate population movements as people turn to migration as one strategy of adaptation. This paper attempts to assess possible migration flows which may occur, in response to climatic shifts over the next thirty years, from small island states in the south-west Pacific ocean region to the United States, Australia and New Zealand. It is argued that the small island states appear vulnerable to climatic change, with low coral atolls being most at risk. Adverse impacts of climatic change will be one extra pressure on small island states, many of which are already struggling to cope with sustainable management of their natural resources and with the demands of their rapidly growing populations for education, housing and employment. The migration strategy is likely to entail significant medium-term health, psychological and social costs for some Pacific island migrants as they try to move or cope with life in western industrialised societies. CR 1986, PACIFIC ISLANDS MONT, V57, P11 1994, ADVERTISER 0616, P13 1994, AUSTRALIAN 0802, P12 *AUSTR BUR STAT, 1994, 28220 CAT *AUSTR BUR STAT, 1994, 31010 CAT *AUSTR BUR STAT, 1994, 62550 CAT *AUSTR INT DEV ASS, 1993, MIGR AUSTR S PAC *AUSTR JOINT STAND, 1989, AUSTR REL S PAC *AUSTR NZ ENV COUN, 1990, NAT GREENH STR AUSTR *NZ DEP STAT, 1993, NZ OFF YB *WORLD RES I, 1992, 1992 ENV ALM BARKAN ER, 1992, CONTRIBUTIONS ETHNIC, V30 BEAGLEHOLE R, 1977, J CHRON DIS, V30, P803 BEDFORD R, 1990, NZ POPULATION REV, V16, P34 BETTS K, 1988, IDEOLOGY IMMIGRATION BILNEY G, 1993, MINISTERIAL SEMINAR BIRD E, 1987, ENV HLTH EFFECTS ATM BLAINEY G, 1994, BULLETIN 0830, P22 BROOKFIELD H, 1990, GLOBAL CHANGE HUMAN CALLICK R, 1993, PACIFIC 2010 CHALLEN CARMICHAEL G, 1993, TRANSTASMAN MIGRATIO CHAMBERS A, 1986, 72 U AUCKL DEP ANTHR COLE R, 1993, PACIFIC 2000 CHALLEN CONNELL J, 1988, MONOGRAPH U AUCKLAND, V2 CONNELL JH, 1992, CITIES, V9, P295 DOOS BR, 1994, AMBIO, V23, P124 GANNICOTT K, 1993, PACIFIC 2000 CHALLEN GARRAN R, 1994, WEEKEND AUSTR 0618, P1 GLAZER N, 1994, AUSTRALIAN 0111, P9 GLEICK PH, 1989, AMBIO, V18, P333 GRAVES PE, 1980, J REGIONAL SCI, V20, P227 HARRIS T, 1994, AUSTRALIAN 0902, P5 HARRISON P, 1992, 3RD REVOLUTION HASHIMOTO M, 1991, CLIMATE CHANGE SCI I HEFT R, 1994, AUSTRALIAN 1110, P7 HEFT R, 1994, WEEKEND AUSTR 1112, P14 HOUGHTON JT, 1990, CLIMATE CHANGE IPCC HUGO G, 1984, FAMINE GEOGRAPHICAL HUGO G, 1989, 1ST WORKSH INT GEOGR HUGO G, 1994, AUSTR IMMIGRATION SU JACOBSEN JL, 1989, POPULI, V16, P29 JONES GW, 1993, MINISTERIAL SEMINAR JOSEPH JG, 1983, J CHRON DIS, V36, P507 KAPLAN RD, 1994, ATLANTIC MONTHLY FEB, V273, P44 KATES RW, 1985, CLIMATE IMPACT ASSES KENNEDY P, 1993, PREPARING 21ST CENTU KNUDSON KE, 1977, EXILES MIGRANTS OCEA KRITZ MM, 1990, 216 CORN U WORK PAP MASSEY DS, 1994, SOCIAL CONTRACT, V4, P183 MCGREGOR G, 1990, UN ENV PROGRAM REGIO, V128 MCKNIGHT RE, 1977, EXILES MIGRANTS OCEA MILES J, 1992, ATLANTIC, V270, P41 OCOLLINS M, 1990, UN ENV PROGRAM REGIO, V128 OLIVERSMITH A, 1982, INVOLUNTARY MIGRATIO PERNETTA JC, 1990, UN ENV PROGRAM REGIO, V128 PRIOR I, 1986, NZ INT MIGRATION ROY P, 1989, 6 U SYDN RES I AUSTR SARMA KM, 1991, CLIMATE CHANGE SCI I SATCHELL T, 1994, ADVERTISER 0809, P13 SCHACHTER J, 1982, AM J ECON SOCIOL, V41, P387 SCHNEIDER SH, 1989, SCI AM SEP, P38 SHORT AD, 1988, GREENHOUSE PLANNING SHORT R, 1994, PEOPLE PLACE, V2, P1 SMELLIE P, 1994, AUSTRALIAN 1017, P10 STEWART C, 1994, AUSTRALIAN 0803, P9 SVART LM, 1975, GEOGR REV, V65, P314 TATE M, 1991, 9 AUSTR CATH SOC JUS TEGART WJ, 1993, CLIMATIC CHANGE 1992 TRLIN AD, 1993, ASIAN PACIFIC MIGRAT, V2, P1 WALKER R, 1994, SOCIAL CONTRACT, V4, P86 WHETTON PH, 1993, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V25, P289 WIGLEY TML, 1992, NATURE, V357, P293 NR 72 TC 2 J9 POP ENVIRON BP 105 EP 122 PY 1995 PD NOV VL 17 IS 2 GA TA242 UT ISI:A1995TA24200002 ER PT J AU Hogg, EHT Bernier, PY TI Climate change impacts on drought-prone forests in western Canada SO FORESTRY CHRONICLE LA English DT Article C1 Canadian Forestry Serv, Nat Resources Canada, No Forestry Ctr, Edmonton, AB T6H 3S5, Canada. Canadian Forestry Serv, Nat Resources, Laurentian Forestry Ctr, Ste Foy, PQ G1V 4C7, Canada. RP Hogg, EHT, Canadian Forestry Serv, Nat Resources Canada, No Forestry Ctr, 5320-122 St, Edmonton, AB T6H 3S5, Canada. AB From a climate change perspective, much of the recent international focus on forests has been on their role in taking up carbon dioxide (CO2) from the atmosphere. The question of climate change impacts on forest productivity is also emerging as a critical issue, especially in drought-prone regions such as the western Canadian interior. Because of the complexity of interacting factors, there is uncertainty even in predicting the direction of change in the productivity of Canada's forests as a whole over the next century. In the most climatically vulnerable regions, however, successful adaptation may require more innovative approaches to forest management, coupled with an enhanced capacity for early detection of large-scale changes in forest productivity, dieback and regeneration. CR *ENV CAN, 2004, CLIM TRENDS VAR B AN *NAT CLIM DAT CTR, 2005, CLIM 2004 AUCLAIR AND, 1996, WATER AIR SOIL POLL, V91, P163 BARR AG, 2004, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V126, P237 BETTS RA, 2000, NATURE, V408, P187 CAMILL P, 2005, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V68, P135 CAMPBELL C, 1994, GEOGR PHYS QUATERN, V48, P207 CAO MK, 1998, GLOB CHANGE BIOL, V4, P185 CASE RA, 1995, QUATERNARY RES, V44, P267 CASPERSEN JP, 2000, SCIENCE, V290, P1148 CHEN WJ, 2000, ECOL MODEL, V135, P55 CHHIN S, 2004, TREE-RING RES, V60, P31 DANG QL, 1989, CAN J FOREST RES, V19, P924 DEMPSTER WR, 2004, COMPARISON PREHARVES FLANNIGAN M, 2001, CAN J FOREST RES, V31, P854 FREY BR, 2004, CAN J FOREST RES, V34, P1379 HENDERSON N, 2002, CLIMATE CHANGE IMPAC HOGG EH, 1994, CAN J FOREST RES, V24, P1835 HOGG EH, 1995, WATER AIR SOIL POLL, V82, P391 HOGG EH, 1997, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V84, P115 HOGG EH, 1997, J BIOGEOGR, V24, P527 HOGG EH, 2000, J CLIMATE, V13, P4229 HOGG EH, 2002, CAN J FOREST RES, V32, P823 HOGG EH, 2005, CAN J FOREST RES, V35, P610 HOGG EH, 2005, IN PRESS CAN J FOR R HOPKIN A, 2003, FOREST CHRON, V79, P47 HOUGHTON JT, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 ISEBRANDS JG, 2001, ENVIRON POLLUT, V115, P359 JOHNSTON M, 2005, FOREST CHRON, V81, P683 KRCMARNOZIC E, 2000, BCX387 PAC FOR CTR C KURZ WA, 1999, ECOL APPL, V9, P526 MAN RZ, 1999, FOREST CHRON, V75, P837 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 MEIDINGER D, 1991, B C MIN FOR SPECIAL, V6 MORGAN MG, 2001, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V49, P279 NIGH GD, 2004, FOREST SCI, V50, P659 OHLSON DW, 2005, FOREST CHRON, V81, P672 PAPADOPOL CS, 2000, FOREST CHRON, V76, P139 PETERSON CJ, 2000, SCI TOTAL ENVIRON, V262, P287 PIELKE RA, 1998, GLOB CHANGE BIOL, V4, P461 PRICE DT, 2000, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V101, P81 SAPORTA R, 1998, CANADA COUNTRY STUDY, P319 SCOTT D, 2005, FOREST CHRON, V81, P696 SHUGART H, 2003, FORESTS GLOBAL CLIMA SPITTLEHOUSE DL, 2003, BC J ECOSYSTEMS MANA, V4, P1 SPITTLEHOUSE DL, 2005, FOREST CHRON, V81, P691 STGEORGE S, 2001, CAN J FOREST RES, V31, P457 STGEORGE S, 2002, QUATERNARY RES, V58, P103 UNG CH, 2001, FOREST SCI, V47, P83 VITT DH, 2000, CAN J EARTH SCI, V37, P683 VOLNEY WJA, 2000, AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON, V82, P283 VOLNEY WJA, 2005, FOREST CHRON, V81, P662 WATSON E, 2001, HOLOCENE, V11, P203 WATSON RT, 2000, LAND USE LAND USE CH ZHOU LM, 2001, J GEOPHYS RES-ATMOS, V106, P20069 NR 55 TC 3 J9 FOREST CHRON BP 675 EP 682 PY 2005 PD SEP-OCT VL 81 IS 5 GA 979VW UT ISI:000232974100027 ER PT J AU Luers, AL Lobell, DB Sklar, LS Addams, CL Matson, PA TI A method for quantifying vulnerability, applied to the agricultural system of the Yaqui Valley, Mexico SO GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS LA English DT Article C1 Ctr Environm Sci, Stanford, CA 94305 USA. Policy Inst Int Studies, Stanford, CA 94305 USA. Stanford Univ, Dept Geog & Environm Sci, Stanford, CA 94305 USA. Carnegie Inst, Dept Global Ecol, Stanford, CA 94305 USA. San Francisco State Univ, Dept Geosci, San Francisco, CA 94132 USA. RP Luers, AL, Ctr Environm Sci, Encina Hall Eeast,4th Floor, Stanford, CA 94305 USA. AB We propose measuring vulnerability of selected outcome variables of concern (e.g. agricultural yield) to identified stressors (e.g. climate change) as a function of the state of the variables of concern relative to a threshold of damage, the sensitivity of the variables to the stressors, and the magnitude and frequency of the stressors to which the system is exposed. In addition, we provide a framework for assessing the extent adaptive capacity can reduce vulnerable conditions. We illustrate the utility of this approach by evaluating the vulnerability of wheat yields to climate change and market fluctuations in the Yaqui Valley, Mexico. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *FOOD AGR ORG, 1997, FAOSTAT ROM *IHDP, 2001, SPEC ISS VULN, V2, P1 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 *USAID, USAID FAM EARL WARN ALWANG J, 2001, 0115 WORLD BANK BLAIKIE PM, 1994, RISK NATURAL HAZARDS, V1, P1 BOHLE HG, 1994, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V4, P37 BRIGUGLIO L, 1995, WORLD DEV, V23, P1615 CARPENTER SR, 2001, ECOSYSTEMS, V4, P765 CHAMBERS R, 1989, IDS B, V20, P1 CLARK WC, 2000, 200012 BCSIA HARV U CUTTER SL, 1996, PROG HUM GEOG, V20, P529 DOWNING TE, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE VULNE FOLKE C, 2002, ICSU SERIES SUSTAINA, V3 GLEWWE P, 1998, J DEV ECON, V56, P181 GRIMM V, 1997, OECOLOGIA, V109, P323 GUNDERSON LH, 2000, ANNU REV ECOL SYST, V31, P425 HARRISON JA, 2003, THESIS STANFORD U ST HEITZMANN K, 2002, 0218 WORLD BANK HOLLING CS, 1973, ANNUAL REV ECOLOGY S, V4, P1 KALY U, 2002, DEV B, V58, P33 KASPERSON JX, 2001, INT WORKSH VULN GLOB KASPERSON JX, 2003, HUMAN DIMENSIONS GLO KATES RW, 2001, SCIENCE, V292, P641 KELLY PM, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V47, P325 LOBELL DB, 2002, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V114, P31 LOBELL DB, 2003, AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON, V94, P205 LONERGAN S, 2000, AVISO, V6, P1 MALKIN E, 2002, NY TIMES 1119 MANSURI G, 2002, IFPRI WORLD BANK C R MATSON PA, 1998, SCIENCE, V280, P112 MITCHELL JK, 1989, GEOGR REV, V79, P391 MOSS R, 2000, MEASURING VULNERABIL MOSS RH, 2002, VULNERABILITY CLIMAT MURDOCH J, 1994, AM ECON REV, V84, P221 NAYLOR RL, 2001, 0101 CIMMYT INT MAIZ OSUNA PM, 2003, SECO SERA 2003 PANEK JA, 2000, ECOL APPL, V10, P506 PETERSON GD, 2002, CONSERV ECOL, V6, P1 PETSCHELHELD G, 1999, ENVIRON MODEL ASSESS, V4, P295 PRITCHETT L, 2000, QUANTIFYING VULNERAB RIBOT JC, 1996, CLIMATE VARIABILITY, V1, P1 RIBOT JC, 1995, GEOJOURNAL, V35, P119 SCHELLNHUBER HJ, 1997, GAIA, V6, P19 SCHIMMELPFENNIG D, 1999, GLOBAL ENV CHANGE AG STEPHEN L, 2001, DISASTERS, V25, P113 TURNER BL, 2003, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V100, P8074 TURNER BL, 2003, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V100, P8080 VALDEZ C, 1994, EVALUATION MANAGEMEN WATTS MJ, 1993, PROG HUM GEOG, V17, P43 NR 50 TC 0 J9 GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANGE BP 255 EP 267 PY 2003 PD DEC VL 13 IS 4 GA 751BT UT ISI:000187033500003 ER PT J AU DRIES, I TI DEVELOPMENT OF WETLANDS IN SIERRA-LEONE - FARMERS RATIONALITY OPPOSED TO GOVERNMENT POLICY SO LANDSCAPE AND URBAN PLANNING LA English DT Article RP DRIES, I, CATHOLIC UNIV LEUVEN,DEPT LAND & FOREST MANAGEMENT,KARDINAAL MERCIERLAAN 92,B-3030 HEVERLEE,BELGIUM. AB Over 100 years of government development efforts to stimulate wet rice cultivation in the wetlands of Sierra Leone is reviewed. New technologies such as drainage of mangrove swamps, intensive drainage of inland swamps and mechanized soil management were unable to achieve the desired objectives, to make the country self-sufficient in rice. The introduction of these new technologies frequently had opposite results: acidification, drying out and economic disaster. Only those innovations which fitted into the traditional rice cultivation and which proved to be a success were adapted, namely transplanting methods and the construction of mounds to allow the growing of dryland crops in the wetlands during the dry season, but only after long-term adaptation and trying out by the farmers themselves, following which spontaneous adoption took place. This is substantiated by a case study carried out in inland swamps through Farming Systems Research methods. Government policies appear to run contrary to the objectives of farmers, the former striving to reach national self-sufficiency in rice by introduction of large schemes and completely new and/or alien production systems, whereas the latter attempt to sustain their subsistence production levels through stepwise innovation. The suggestion is made that government in formulating its development policies should take into account the traditional knowledge system of farmers and stimulate participatory research. This would ultimately and more successfully lead to sustainable yield increases without deterioration of the physical environment. CR *WARDA, 1981, RIC STAT YB *WORLD BANK, 1981, 31665L REP *WORLD BANK, 1984, 2087 REP BEST J, 1988, STUDY FARMING SYSTEM BRANDT H, 1973, FEASIBILITY STUDY IN CARPENTER AJ, 1978, RICE AFRICA, P3 JALLOW M, 1986, WETLANDS RICE SUBSAH, P15 KREUL W, 1983, Q J INT AGR, V22, P149 MILLINGTON AC, 1985, Z GEOMORPHOL, V52, P1 RICHARD P, 1985, INDIGENOUS AGR REVOL RICHARD P, 1986, LONDON SERIES GEOGRA, V11 SMALING EMA, 1985, W AFRICA PHASE 2, V1 NR 12 TC 2 J9 LANDSCAPE URBAN PLAN BP 223 EP 229 PY 1991 PD APR VL 20 IS 1-3 GA FP636 UT ISI:A1991FP63600034 ER PT J AU Kaschula, SA Twine, WE Scholes, MC TI Coppice harvesting of fuelwood species on a South African common: Utilizing scientific and indigenous knowledge in community based natural resource management SO HUMAN ECOLOGY LA English DT Article C1 Univ Witwatersrand, Dept Anim Plant & Environm Sci, CAE, Johannesburg, South Africa. RP Kaschula, SA, Univ Witwatersrand, Dept Anim Plant & Environm Sci, CAE, Johannesburg, South Africa. AB The limitations of Community Based Natural Resource Management (CBNRM) with respect to the difficulties of comparing local versus scientific knowledge categories within a bounded definition of 'community' were investigated by means of a study exploring local indigenous knowledge pertaining to harvesting technique, and the impact of soil and species type on the post-harvest coppice response of popular savanna fuelwood species, among rural inhabitants of the Bushbuckridge region of the Limpopo Province, South Africa. Soils and plants were evaluated chiefly in terms of their perceived ability to retain precipitation, making rainfall a driving force in local understanding of environmental productivity. Some indigenous knowledge showed an agreement with biological data, but overall the variability in responses, as well as the diverse scales at which indigenous and scientific knowledge is directed, were too great to allow for simplistic parallels between local ecological indices to be made. Indigenous environmental knowledge was underscored by the perceived symbolic link between environmental and social degradation. It is recommended that environmental managers incorporate indigenous knowledge as a component of a systems-level approach to natural resource management, where biological, cultural, economic, and symbolic aspects of natural resource use are nested within a broader ecosocial system. This approach to indigenous knowledge is offered as an alternative to the simple scientific evaluation that so often characterizes environmental management. 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RP Schell, LM, SUNY Albany, Dept Anthropol, 1400 Washington Ave, Albany, NY 12222 USA. AB The biocultural approach of anthropologists is well suited to understand the interrelationship of urbanism and human biology. Urbanism is a social construction that has continuously changed and presented novel adaptive challenges to its residents. Urban living today involves several biological challenges, of which one is pollution. Using three different types of pollutants as examples, air pollution, lead, and noise, the impact of pollution on human biology (mortality, morbidity, reproduction, and development) can be seen. Chronic exposure to low levels of these pollutants has a small impact on the individual, but so many people are exposed to pollution that the effect species-wide is substantial. Also, disproportionate pollutant exposure by socioeconomically disadvantaged groups exacerbates risk of poor health and well being. 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PSYCHOL MED, V11, P155 WELCH BL, 1970, PHYSL EFFECTS NOISE WESTMAN JC, 1981, ENV HLTH PERSPECT, V41, P291 WJST M, 1993, BRIT MED J, V307, P596 WOLF AW, 1987, HEAVY METALS ENV, P165 WOODRUFF TJ, 1997, ENVIRON HEALTH PERSP, V105, P608 WU TN, 1996, AM J EPIDEMIOL, V143, P792 XU XP, 1995, ARCH ENVIRON HEALTH, V50, P407 XU ZY, 2000, ARCH ENVIRON HEALTH, V55, P115 YANG SC, 1994, ARCH ENVIRON HEALTH, V49, P182 ZHAO YM, 1991, BRIT J IND MED, V48, P179 ZMIROU D, 1998, EPIDEMIOLOGY, V9, P495 NR 147 TC 0 J9 ANNU REV ANTHROPOL BP 111 EP 134 PY 2003 VL 32 GA 746LY UT ISI:000186748900006 ER PT J AU Lorenzoni, I Jordan, A Hulme, M Turner, RK ORiordan, T TI A co-evolutionary approach to climate change impact assessment: Part I. Integrating socio-economic and climate change scenarios SO GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS LA English DT Article C1 Univ E Anglia, Ctr Social & Econ Res Global Environm, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. Univ Coll London, London WC1E 6BT, England. Univ E Anglia, Sch Environm Sci, Climat Res Unit, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. RP Lorenzoni, I, Univ E Anglia, Ctr Social & Econ Res Global Environm, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. AB Climate change policies currently pay disproportionately greater attention to the mitigation of climate change through emission reductions strategies than to adaptation measures. Realising that the world is already committed to some global warming, policy makers are beginning to turn their attention to the challenge of preparing society to adapt to the unfolding impacts at the local level. This two-part article presents an integrated, or 'co-evolutionary', approach to using scenarios in adaptation and vulnerability assessment. Part I explains how climate and social scenarios can be integrated to better understand the inter-relationships between a changing climate and the dynamic evolution of social, economic and political systems. The integrated scenarios are then calibrated so that they can be applied 'bottom up' to local stakeholders in vulnerable sectors of the economy. Part I concludes that a co-evolutionary approach (1) produces a more sophisticated and dynamic account of the potential feedbacks between natural and human systems; (2) suggests that sustainability indicators are both a potentially valuable input to and an output of integrated scenario formulation and application. Part II describes how a broadly representative sample of public, private and voluntary organisations in the East Anglian region of the UK responded to the scenarios, and identifies future research priorities. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *CLIM CHANG IMP RE, 1996, REV POT EFF CLIM CHA *DEP ENV TRAD REG, 1999, BETT QUAL LIF STRAT *INT PAN CLIM CHAN, 1996, CLIM CHANG 1996 *OFF SCI TECHN OST, 1999, DTI PUB *WORLD BUS COUNC S, 1997, GLOB SCEN 2000 2050 ADGER WN, 1999, ECOL ECON, V31, P365 BERKHOUT F, 1999, SOCIOECONOMIC SCENAR ELKINGTON J, 1996, LONG RANGE PLANN, V29, P762 GALLOPIN G, 1998, ENVIRONMENT, V40, P26 HAMMOND A, 1998, WHICH WORLD SCENARIO HULME M, 1998, 1 UKCIP CLIM RES UN KASSLER P, 1995, LONG RANGE PLANN, V28, P38 LORENZONI I, IN PRESS GLOBAL ENV MILES I, 1981, METHODS DEV PLANNING, P31 NIJKAMP P, 1997, INT J ENVIRON POLLUT, V7, P305 NORGAARD RB, 1984, LAND ECON, V60, P160 NORGAARD RB, 1994, DEV BETRAYED END PRO PALUTIKOF JP, 1997, EC IMPACTS HOT SUMME PARRY ML, UNPUB ASSESSMENT POT PARRY ML, 1998, CLIMATE IMPACT ADAPT PARRY ML, 1998, NATURE, V395, P741 PARSON EA, 1995, ENERG POLICY, V23, P463 PATTERSON WC, 1999, TRANSFORMING ELECT C RAYNER S, 1998, HUMAN CHOICE CLIMATE SMITHERS J, 1997, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V7, P129 TURNER RK, 1998, GEOGR J 3, V164, P269 NR 26 TC 9 J9 GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANGE BP 57 EP 68 PY 2000 PD APR VL 10 IS 1 GA 344EB UT ISI:000088743700005 ER PT J AU Pfister, F Bader, HP Scheidegger, R Baccini, P TI Dynamic modelling of resource management for farming systems SO AGRICULTURAL SYSTEMS LA English DT Article C1 EAWAG, Dept Resource & Waste Management, CH-8600 Dubendorf, Switzerland. ETH, Dept Resource & Waste Management, CH-8093 Zurich, Switzerland. RP Bader, HP, EAWAG, Dept Resource & Waste Management, POB 611, CH-8600 Dubendorf, Switzerland. AB With the rapid development of computer technology, numerous simulation models have been developed for agricultural systems and farms. Nevertheless, most of them are rather appropriate for developed countries as they have considerable data requirements and often aim at optimizing farm resources, excluding the farmer's household from the system. Yet, the latter is crucial for the understanding of semi-subsistence systems such as those found in developing countries. We present a dynamic model of an agricultural system in the Central Highlands of Nicaragua. It aims at giving a deeper insight into the functioning of the system and the constraints the latter is subject to. Such an approach helps to explain why farmers make certain choices. Although for the study area few data are available, a robust model with a one-day resolution could be designed. For simulation two groups of scenarios were chosen: (a) Minimum farm sizes for the production of a certain food supply (e.g. basic staples) were assessed and the impact of increased fertilizer use was estimated. (b) Monoculture farms were simulated with the main crops of the region. The production of calories, protein and added value were chosen as indicators. We determined the labour requirements for both groups of scenarios. Simulation results show that the latter is a limiting factor. This is true even for farming systems aiming at covering minimum needs (food, elemental health care and schooling) only. We can show that farmers' strategies (e.g. crop mix, fertilizer application) are crucial for the system. Last but not least, we produce some evidence for the advantage of the current crop mix in the study region. (c) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. CR *FAO, 1995, FRANJ GRAN SAN RAM E, V1 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 *SETEC, 2001, ESTR REF CREC EC RED BACCINI P, 1996, REGIONALER STOFFHAUS BADER HP, 2003, CLEAN TECHNOL E 0529 BINDER C, 2001, ECOL ECON, V38, P191 CAILLAVET F, 1994, DEV AGR EC, V10 CASTELANORTEGA OA, 2003, AGR SYST, V75, P1 CASTELANORTEGA OA, 2003, AGR SYST, V75, P23 FISCHER JC, 1970, TECHNICAL INFORMATIO HUG F, 2003, CLEAN TECHNOL E 0725 JONES CA, 1986, CERES MAIZE SIMULATI JONES JW, 1997, APPL SYSTEMS APPROAC, V1 KEATING BA, 2001, AGR SYST, V70, P555 LEE DJ, 1995, AGR SYST, V49, P101 MAINGI JM, 2001, EUR J AGRON, V14, P1 MATTHEWS RB, 1994, FIELD CROPS RES, V36, P69 MCCOWN RL, 2002, AGR SYSTEM MODELS FI MCKINION JM, 1989, AGR SYST, V31, P55 MULLER D, 2004, IN PRESS J IND ECOL OVERMAN AR, 2002, MATH MODELS CROP GRO PFISTER F, 2003, THESIS SWISS FEDERAL PFISTER F, 2004, P WORKSH SIM UMW GEO, P11 REAL M, 1998, THESIS SWISS FEDERAL RIVAS S, 2000, AGROOKOLOGISCHES REG SHEPHERD KD, 1998, AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON, V71, P131 SINCLAIR TR, 1996, AGRON J, V88, P698 WILLIAMS JR, 1995, COMPUTER MODELS WATE, P909 ZELTNER C, 1999, REG ENV CHANGE, V1, P31 NR 29 TC 0 J9 AGR SYST BP 1 EP 28 PY 2005 PD OCT VL 86 IS 1 GA 974BW UT ISI:000232567300001 ER PT J AU Hannah, L Midgley, GF Millar, D TI Climate change-integrated conservation strategies SO GLOBAL ECOLOGY AND BIOGEOGRAPHY LA English DT Article C1 Conservat Int, Ctr Appl Biodivers Sci, Washington, DC 20036 USA. Natl Bot Inst, Climate Change Res Grp, ZA-7735 Cape Town, South Africa. RP Hannah, L, Conservat Int, Ctr Appl Biodivers Sci, 1919 M St, Washington, DC 20036 USA. AB Aim Conservation strategies currently include little consideration of climate change. Insights about the biotic impacts of climate change from biogeography and palaeoecology, therefore, have the potential to provide significant improvements in the effectiveness of conservation planning. We suggest a collaboration involving biogeography, ecology and applied conservation. The resulting Climate Change-integrated Conservation Strategies (CCS) apply available tools to respond to the conservation challenges posed by climate change. Location The focus of this analysis is global, with special reference to high biodiversity areas vulnerable to climate change, particularly tropical montane settings. Methods Current tools from climatology, biogeography and ecology applicable to conservation planning in response to climate change are reviewed. Conservation challenges posed by climate change are summarized. CCS elements are elaborated that use available tools to respond to these challenges. Results Five elements of CCS are described: regional modelling; expanding protected areas; management of the matrix; regional coordination; and transfer of resources. Regional modelling uses regional climate models, biotic response models and sensitivity analysis to identify climate change impacts on biodiversity at a regional scale appropriate for conservation planning. Expansion of protected areas management and systems within the planning region are based on modelling results. Management of the matrix between protected areas provides continuity for processes and species range shifts outside of parks. Regional coordination of park and off-park efforts allows harmonization of conservation goals across provincial and national boundaries. Finally, implementation of these CCS elements in the most biodiverse regions of the world will require technical and financial transfer of resources on a global scale. Main conclusions Collaboration across disciplines is necessary to plan conservation responses to climate change adequately. Biogeography and ecology provide insights into the effects of climate change on biodiversity that have not yet been fully integrated into conservation biology and applied conservation management. CCS provide a framework in which biogeographers, ecologists and conservation managers can collaborate to address this need. 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Smithsonian Trop Res Inst, Balboa, Panama. Cornell Univ, Ithaca, NY 14853 USA. RP Stothert, KE, Univ Texas, Ctr Archaeol Res, San Antonio, TX 78285 USA. AB Preceramic sites located on the Santa Elena Peninsula in southwestern Ecuador and occupied in the Terminal Pleistocene and during the Early Holocene (10,800-6600 BP) have produced evidence of a durable Las Vegas adaptation focused on marine, estuarine and terrestrial resources. The Las Vegas people were among the earliest cultivators in America who participated in the domestication of useful plant species and progressively intensified their efforts in both fishing and horticulture. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd and INQUA. All rights reserved. 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Surveillance Data Inc, St Louis Pk, MN USA. Bethesda Clin, St Paul, MN USA. Macalester Coll, Dept Biol, St Paul, MN 55105 USA. RP Ziska, LH, USDA ARS, Alternate Crop & Syst Lab, 10300 Baltimore Ave, Beltsville, MD 20705 USA. AB Background: Although controlled laboratory experiments have been conducted to demonstrate the sensitivity of allergenic pollen production to future climatic change tie, increased CO2 and temperature), no in situ data are available. Objective: The purpose of this investigation was to assess, under realistic conditions, the impact of climatic change on pollen production of common ragweed, a ubiquitous weed occurring in disturbed sites and the principal source of pollen associated with seasonal allergenic rhinitis. Methods: We used an existing temperature/CO2 gradient between urban and rural areas to examine the quantitative and qualitative aspects of ragweed growth and pollen production. Results: For 2000 and 200 1, average daily (24-hour) values of CO2 concentration and air temperature within an urban environment were 30% to 31% and 1.8degrees to 2.0degreesC (3.4degrees to 3.6degreesF) higher than those at a rural site. This result is consistent with most global change scenarios. Ragweed grew faster, flowered earlier, and produced significantly greater above-ground biomass and ragweed pollen at urban locations than at rural locations. Conclusions: Here we show that 2 aspects of future global environmental change, air temperature and atmospheric CO2, are already significantly higher in urban relative to rural areas. In general, we show that regional urbanization-induced temperature/CO2 increases similar to those associated with projected global climatic change might already have public health consequences; we suggest that urbanization, per se, might provide a low-cost alternative to current experimental methods evaluating plant responses to climate change. (J Allergy Clin Immunol 2003;111:290-5.). 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AB This paper probes into the "ecological reasoning" in cultural Anthropology. It points out that although many studies have implicitly recognized the notions of ecosystems but very few of them have explained cultural behaviour in explicit ecological terms. The challenging task ahead is how to incorporate the theoretical notions of ecology into cultural anthropological corpus; what should be its methodology; what are the serious limitations to ecological perspectives and how to overcome those limitations. 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Univ Fribourg, Dept Geosci, CH-1700 Fribourg, Switzerland. ETHZ, Swiss Fed Inst Technol, Inst Terr Ecol, Dept Environm Sci, Zurich, Switzerland. ETHZ, Swiss Fed Inst Technol, Inst Atmospher & Climate Sci, Dept Environm Sci, Zurich, Switzerland. Univ Bern, Hist Inst, Bern, Switzerland. RP Fuhrer, J, Agroscope FAL Reckenholz, Swiss Fed Res Stn Agroecol & Agr, Air Pollut Climate Grp, Reckenholzstr 191, CH-8046 Zurich, Switzerland. AB There is growing evidence that, as a result of global climate change, some of the most severe weather events could become more frequent in Europe over the next 50 to 100 years. The paper aims to (i) describe observed trends and scenarios for summer heat waves, windstorms and heavy precipitation, based on results from simulations with global circulation models, regional climate models, and other downscaling procedures, and (ii) discuss potential impacts on agricultural systems and forests in Switzerland. Trends and scenarios project more frequent heavy precipitation during winter corresponding, for example, to a three-fold increase in the exceedance of today's 15-year extreme values by the end of the 21st century. This increases the risk of large-scale flooding and loss of topsoil due to erosion. In contrast, constraints in agricultural practice due to waterlogged soils may become less in a warmer climate. In summer, the most remarkable trend is a decrease in the frequency of wet days, and shorter return times of heat waves and droughts. This increases the risk of losses of crop yield and forage quality. In forests, the more frequent occurrence of dry years may accelerate the replacement of sensitive tree species and reduce carbon stocks, and the projected slight increase in the frequency of extreme storms by the end of the century could increase the risk of windthrow. 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VALLERON AJ, 2004, CR BIOL, V327, P1125 VIDALE PL, 2003, J GEOPHYS RES-ATMOS, V108 WERMELINGER B, 1999, ECOL ENTOMOL, V24, P103 WERNLI H, 2002, Q J ROY METEOR SOC B, V128, P405 WIDMANN M, 1997, INT J CLIMATOL, V17, P1333 WIDMER O, 2004, FOREST ECOL MANAG, V195, P237 WILBY RL, 1998, WATER RESOUR RES, V34, P2995 WILBY RL, 2004, GUIDELINES USE CLIMA, P27 WILLIAMS AN, 2001, SUSTAINING GLOBAL FA, P509 XOPLAKI E, 2000, CLIMATE RES, V14, P129 XOPLAKI E, 2004, CLIM DYNAM, V23, P63 ZHANG XC, 2004, SOIL SCI SOC AM J, V68, P1376 ZIERL B, 2004, FOREST ECOL MANAG, V188, P25 ZWIERS FW, 1998, J CLIMATE, V11, P2200 NR 131 TC 0 J9 CLIMATIC CHANGE BP 79 EP 102 PY 2006 PD NOV VL 79 IS 1-2 GA 110DV UT ISI:000242359400005 ER PT J AU VANGINKEL, R TI FISHY RESOURCES AND RESOURCEFUL FISHERS - THE MARINE COMMONS AND THE ADAPTIVE STRATEGIES OF TEXEL FISHERMEN SO NETHERLANDS JOURNAL OF SOCIAL SCIENCES LA English DT Article RP VANGINKEL, R, AMSTERDAM SCH SOCIAL SCI RES,OUDE HOOGST 24,1012 CE AMSTERDAM,NETHERLANDS. AB There are numerous instances of the abuse and overexploitation of natural resources held in common. This is especially true in marine environments. In a well-known article, Garrett Hardin states that the exploitation of common property resources will inevitably lead to ecological deterioration. Critics maintain that his proposition is based on false assumptions and is empirically untenable. They present examples of sustainable use and successful communal resource management. In my opinion, the pessimistic and the optimistic views are both flawed. Understanding the motives and behaviour of commoners requires a close examination of their adaptive strategies, socially and culturally contextualized in a long-term perspective. From this angle, this article focuses on Texel fishermen's adaptations in the nineteenth and early twentieth centuries. 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SO HYDROGEOLOGY JOURNAL LA English DT Article C1 Cranfield Univ, Inst Water & Environm, Bedford MK45 4DT, England. RP Holman, IP, Cranfield Univ, Inst Water & Environm, Bedford MK45 4DT, England. AB An integrated approach to assessing the regional impacts of climate and socio-economic change on groundwater recharge is described from East Anglia, UK. Many factors affect future groundwater recharge including changed precipitation and temperature regimes, coastal flooding, urbanization, woodland establishment, and changes in cropping and rotations. Important sources of uncertainty and shortcomings in recharge estimation are discussed in the light of the results. The uncertainty in, and importance of, socio-economic scenarios in exploring the consequences of unknown future changes are highlighted. Changes to soil properties are occurring over a range of time scales, such that the soils of the future may not have the same infiltration properties as existing soils. The potential implications involved in assuming unchanging soil properties are described. To focus on the direct impacts of climate change is to neglect the potentially important role of policy, societal values and economic processes in shaping the landscape above aquifers. If the likely consequences of future changes of groundwater recharge, resulting from both climate and socio-economic change, are to be assessed, hydrogeologists must increasingly work with researchers from other disciplines, such as socio-economists, agricultural modellers and soil scientists. CR *EUR ENV AG, 1998, EUR ENV 2 ASS MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 ALDERWISH A, 1999, CLIMATE RES, V12, P85 ANKENY MD, 1995, SOIL SCI SOC AM J, V59, P200 ARGENT RM, 2004, ENVIRON MODELL SOFTW, V19, P219 ARNELL A, 1994, 12 RD NAT RIV AUTH ARNELL NW, 1998, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V39, P83 BARON JS, 2002, ECOL APPL, V12, P1247 BOBBA AG, 2002, HYDROLOG SCI J, V47, S67 BOORMAN DB, 1995, 126 I HYDR BOWMAN RA, 2000, SOIL SCI, V165, P516 BRAGG OM, 2002, SCI TOTAL ENVIRON, V294, P111 CANNELL MGR, 1999, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V42, P505 CANNELL RQ, 1994, SOIL TILL RES, V30, P245 CARTER TR, 1992, J EXP BOT, V43, P1159 CASH DW, 2000, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V10, P109 CHAMBERS BJ, 2000, SOIL USE MANAGE, V16, P93 CHEN CC, 2001, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V49, P397 CHEN ZH, 2002, J HYDROL, V260, P102 CONWAY D, 1996, AMBIO, V25, P336 COOPER DM, 1995, HYDROLOG SCI J, V40, P615 CROLEY TE, 2003, J AM WATER RESOUR AS, V39, P149 DANIELOPOL DL, 2003, ENVIRON CONSERV, V30, P104 DAVIES A, 1996, GRASS FORAGE SCI, V51, P306 EASTERLING WE, 1997, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V7, P337 FEDDEMA JJ, 2001, CLIMATE RES, V17, P209 GOMEZ E, 2003, HOUILLE BLANCEH, V3, P38 HARRISON PA, 1996, CLIMATE RES, V7, P225 HERNANZ JL, 2002, SOIL TILL RES, V66, P129 HOLMAN IP, 1998, Q J ENG GEOL 1, V31, P47 HOLMAN IP, 1999, Q J ENG GEOL 4, V32, P365 HOLMAN IP, 2001, REGIONAL CLIMATE CHA HOLMAN IP, 2003, HYDROL EARTH SYST SC, V7, P754 HOLMAN IP, 2005, IN PRESS CLIMATIC 1 HOLMAN IP, 2005, IN PRESS CLIMATIC 2 HULME M, 1998, 1 CLIM RES UN JONES PD, 2001, INT J CLIMATOL, V21, P1337 KEATING EH, 2003, GROUND WATER, V41, P200 KIRSHEN PH, 2002, J WATER RES PL-ASCE, V128, P216 KORT J, 1998, BIOMASS BIOENERG, V14, P351 KRUGER A, 2001, PHYS CHEM EARTH PT B, V26, P853 LEEMANS R, 1999, SCI TOTAL ENVIRON, V240, P51 LOAICIGA HA, 2000, J HYDROL, V227, P173 LOUKAS A, 2002, HYDROL EARTH SYST SC, V6, P211 LOVELAND P, 2003, SOIL TILL RES, V70, P1 MEIGH JR, 1999, WATER RESOUR MANAG, V13, P85 NICHOLLS RJ, 2001, REGIONAL CLIMATE CHA OLEARY GJ, 1996, AGR WATER MANAGE, V31, P65 PARRY ML, 1996, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V32, P185 PARSON EA, 2000, SOCIOECONOMIC CONTEX, CH3 PRUDHOMME C, 2002, HYDROL PROCESS, V16, P1137 PRUSKI FF, 2002, J SOIL WATER CONSERV, V57, P7 QUINN NWT, 2004, ENVIRON MODELL SOFTW, V19, P305 REEVES DW, 1997, SOIL TILL RES, V43, P131 ROUNSEVELL MDA, 1999, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V43, P683 ROUNSEVELL MDA, 2003, AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON, V95, P465 SHACKLEY S, 2003, CLIMATE RES, V24, P71 SHERIF MM, 1999, HYDROL PROCESS, V13, P1277 SOPHOCLEOUS M, 2002, HYDROGEOL J, V10, P52 TEBRUGGE F, 1999, SOIL TILL RES, V53, P15 TISDALE JM, 1982, J SOIL SCI, V33, P141 VOSS R, 2002, INT J CLIMATOL, V22, P755 WEATHERHEAD EK, 1999, AGR WATER MANAGE, V43, P203 WEBB J, 2001, J AGR SCI 2, V137, P127 YUSOFF I, 2002, GEOLOGICAL SOC LONDO, V193, P325 NR 65 TC 0 J9 HYDROGEOL J BP 637 EP 647 PY 2006 PD JUN VL 14 IS 5 GA 069OY UT ISI:000239459300001 ER PT J AU Tanaka, SK Zhu, TJ Lund, JR Howitt, RE Jenkins, MW Pulido, MA Tauber, M Ritzema, RS Ferreira, IC TI Climate warming and water management adaptation for California SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 Univ Calif Davis, Dept Agr & Resource Econ, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Davis, CA 95616 USA. RP Tanaka, SK, Univ Calif Davis, Dept Agr & Resource Econ, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Davis, CA 95616 USA. AB The ability of California's water supply system to adapt to long-term climatic and demographic changes is examined. Two climate warming and a historical climate scenario are examined with population and land use estimates for the year 2100 using a statewide economic-engineering optimization model of water supply management. Methodologically, the results of this analysis indicate that for long-term climate change studies of complex systems, there is considerable value in including other major changes expected during a long-term time-frame (such as population changes), allowing the system to adapt to changes in conditions (a common feature of human societies), and representing the system in sufficient hydrologic and operational detail and breadth to allow significant adaptation. While the policy results of this study are preliminary, they point to a considerable engineering and economic ability of complex, diverse, and inter-tied systems to adapt to significant changes in climate and population. More specifically, California's water supply system appears physically capable of adapting to significant changes in climate and population, albeit at a significant cost. Such adaptation would entail large changes in the operation of California's large groundwater storage capacity, significant transfers of water among water users, and some adoption of new technologies. 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AB Global sea levels have slowly risen during this century, and that rise is expected to accelerate in the coming century due to anthropogenic global warming. A total rise of up to 1 m is possible by the year 2100 (relative to 1990). To deal with this change, coastal managers require site-specific information on relative (i.e., local) changes in sea level to determine what might be threatened. Therefore as a first step, global sea-level rise scenarios need to be transformed into relative sea-level change scenarios which take account of local and regional factors, such as vertical land movements, in addition to global changes. Even present rates of relative sealevel rise have important long-term implications for coastal management-projecting existing trends predicts a relative sea-level rise from 1990 to 2100 of up to 0.4 m and 1.15 m for the Mid-Atlantic Region and Louisiana, respectively. Ignoring sea-level rise will lead to unwise decisions and increasing hazard with time. This article adapts the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) global scenarios for sea-level rise (Warrick et at, 1996) to three relative sea-level rise scenarios for the contiguous United States. These scenarios cover the period 1990 to 2100 and provide a basis to assess possible proactive measures for sea-level rise. However, they are subject to the same uncertainties as the global scenarios as most of the sea-level rise will occur decades into the future. When considering what should be done now in response to future sea-level rise, given these large uncertainties, if is best to identify (I) low-cost, no regret responses which would maintain or enhance the choices available to tomorrow's coastal managers; and (2) sectors where reactive adaptation would have particularly high costs and where allowance for future sealevel rise can be considered a worthwhile ''insurance policy. '' Sea-level rise will impact an evolving coastal landscape which already is experiencing a range of other pressures. Therefore, to be most effective, responses to sea-level rise need to be integrated with all other planning occurring in the coastal zone. 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RP Peterson, S, Kiel Inst World Econ, D-24100 Kiel, Germany. AB The analysis of climate change is confronted with large uncertainties that need to be taken into account to arrive at meaningful policy recommendations. The main contribution of economics to this interdisciplinary task is to provide formal frameworks and techniques for analyzing climate policy in the context of uncertainty. This paper will give an overview of existing approaches and findings to provide a broad picture of what economics can contribute to the debate. 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RP Barker, T, Univ Cambridge, Dept Appl Econ, Sidgwick Ave, Cambridge CB3 9DE, England. AB The diagrammatic representation of climate change, adaptation and mitigation is important in conceptualizing the problem, identifying important feedbacks, and communicating between disciplines. The Synthesis Report of the IPCC's Third Assessment Report, 2001, uses a "cause and effect" approach developed in the integrated assessment literature. This viewpoint reviews this approach and suggests an alternative, based on stocks and flows. The alternative gives a much richer representation of the problem so that it includes the enhanced greenhouse effect, ancillary benefits of mitigation, the distinction between climate-change and other stresses on natural systems, and a more refined distinction between adaptation and mitigation. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *EEA EUR ENV AG, 1998, ENV ENV PRESS IND EU *EEA EUR ENV AG, 2000, ENV ISS SER EEA EUR, V17 *IPCC, 2001, CLIM CHANG 2001 *OECD, 1993, OECD ENV MON, V83 NAKICENOVIC N, 2000, IPCC INT PAN CLIM CH RAPPORT DJ, 1979, COMPREHENSIVE FRAMEW, P11 WATSON R, 2001, SYNTHESIS REPORT CLI NR 7 TC 0 J9 GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANGE BP 1 EP 6 PY 2003 PD APR VL 13 IS 1 GA 679ZD UT ISI:000182951100001 ER PT J AU Isik, M Devadoss, S TI An analysis of the impact of climate change on crop yields and yield variability SO APPLIED ECONOMICS LA English DT Article C1 Univ Idaho, Dept Agr Econ & Rural Sociol, Moscow, ID 83844 USA. RP Isik, M, Univ Idaho, Dept Agr Econ & Rural Sociol, 28B Ag Sci Bldg, Moscow, ID 83844 USA. AB This paper develops an econometric model of stochastic production functions to quantify the impacts of climatic variables on the mean, variance, and covariance of crop yields. The estimates of the production function parameters and their elasticities are utilized to analyse the impacts of the projected climate change on agriculture. The results show that the climate change will have modest effects on the mean crop yields, but will significantly reduce the variance and covariance for most of the crops considered. The results have implications for allocations of agricultural land among crops and for crop production mix. CR *NCDC, NCDC WEBP ADAMS RM, 1998, CLIMATE RES, V11, P19 ADAMS RM, 1999, AGR GLOBAL CLIMATE C ANDERSON JR, 1987, VARIABILITY GRAINS Y ASCHE F, 1999, J AGR RESOUR ECON, V24, P429 BALTAGI BH, 1995, ECONOMETRIC ANAL PAN BRYANT CR, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P181 EITZINGER J, 2001, ECOLOGY EC, V52, P199 HARVEY AC, 1976, ECONOMETRICA, V44, P461 HAZELL PBR, 1984, AM J AGR ECON, V66, P302 HOUGHTON JT, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995 HUANG TH, 2004, APPL ECON LETT, V11, P297 IM KS, 1997, UNPUB TESTING UNIT R ISIK M, 2003, AM J AGR ECON, V85, P305 JOHNSTON J, 1997, ECONOMETRIC METHODS JUST RE, 1978, J ECONOMETRICS, V7, P67 KANWAR S, 1999, APPL ECON, V31, P307 KUMBHAKAR SC, 1997, APPL ECON, V29, P379 LEWANDROWSKI JK, 1999, LAND ECON, V75, P39 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 MEARNS LO, 1997, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V35, P367 MENDELSOHN R, 1994, AM ECON REV, V84, P753 MENDELSOHN R, 1996, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V80, P55 POLSKY C, 2001, AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON, V85, P133 SAHA A, 1997, APPL ECON, V29, P459 SANTER B, 1984, SOCIOECONOMIC IMPACT SCHIMMELPFENNIG D, 1999, GLOBAL ENV CHANGE AG, P193 SMITH JB, 2004, SYNTHESIS POTENTIAL TERJUNG WH, 1984, INT J BIOMETEOROL, V28, P279 NR 29 TC 0 J9 APPL ECON BP 835 EP 844 PY 2006 PD APR 20 VL 38 IS 7 GA 044AY UT ISI:000237645600008 ER PT J AU Sanchez, PA TI Linking climate change research with food security and poverty reduction in the tropics SO AGRICULTURE ECOSYSTEMS & ENVIRONMENT LA English DT Article C1 Int Ctr Res Agroforestry, Nairobi, Kenya. RP Sanchez, PA, Int Ctr Res Agroforestry, Nairobi, Kenya. AB Climate change is a reality and will affect the poor in developing countries in many ways. The effectiveness of global change research could be substantially improved by linking International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP) study with Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR) centres based in the tropics. These centres are carrying interdisciplinary research and development on how to achieve food security and reduce rural poverty through the innovative management of natural resources. A CGIAR intercentre working group on climate change (ICWG-CC) identified joint opportunities that take advantage of the comparative advantages of both institutions. CGIAR centres will focus on adaptation and mitigation research in developing countries. A natural resource management research approach is suggested, which consists of six steps: (1) identifying and quantifying the extent of food insecurity, rural poverty and resource degradation; (2) conducting technological and policy research on economic and environmental functions; (3) optimising the trade-offs between global environmental benefits and private farmer benefits; (4) extrapolating and disseminating results, including research on policy implementation; (5) assessing impact and (6) providing feedback. Two examples of current CGIAR research illustrate this approach. Agroforestry alternatives to slash and burn (ASB) agriculture at tropical forest margins were identified and the trade-offs between carbon sequestration and farmer profitability provided options to policy makers. Land tenure problems were resolved with participatory policy research. Agroforestry practices sequester an additional 57 Mg C per ha, three times that of croplands or grasslands are able to do. Soil nutrient capital is being replenished in subhumid tropical Africa through improved leguminous tree fallows, rock phosphate and biomass transfers of Tithonia diversifolia, helping farmers to attain food security. Afterwards, when farmers shift to high-value tree or vegetable crop production, poverty is reduced. The transformation of low productivity croplands to sequential agroforestry is estimated to triple system carbon stocks in 20 years. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. CR *ASB, 1998, ALT SLASH BURN IND, P139 *CGIAR, 1998, CGIAR SYST REV REP, P108 *ICWG CC, 1999, CGIAR CLIM CHANG PRO, P14 *MIN FOR IND, 1998, KAW DENG TUJ IST KDT, P16 BURESH RJ, 1997, SSSA SPECIAL PUBLICA, V51, P251 DAWSON IK, 1999, MOL ECOL, V8, P151 FAY C, 1998, AGROFORESTRY TODAY, V10, P25 GACHENGO CN, 1999, AGROFOREST SYST, V44, P21 GARRITY DP, 1994, INT CTR RES AGROFORE, P73 GOKOWSKI J, 2000, UNPUB AGR INTENSIFIC GREGORY PJ, 2000, AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON, V82, P3 HOUGHTON JT, 1997, 3 IPCC, V3, P48 IZAC AMN, 2000, IN PRESS AGR SYST JAMA B, 2000, IN PRESS AGROFORESTR JAMIESON PD, 2000, AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON, V82, P23 KAPKIYAI JJ, 1998, AFRICAN CROP SCI J, V6, P19 KWESIGA F, 1994, FOREST ECOL MANAG, V64, P199 KWESIGA FR, 1999, AGROFOREST SYST, V47, P49 LEAKEY RRB, 1996, DOMESTICATION COMMER, V9 MICHON G, 1996, NONWOOD FOREST PRODU, V9, P160 NIANG A, 1998, 9 KARIKEFRIICRAF REG, P42 OLDEMAN LR, 1998, 9801 INT SOIL REF IN PALM CA, 1995, PROCEDURAL GUIDELINE, P33 PALM CA, 2000, ALTERNATIVES SLASH B PINSTRUPANDERSE.P, 1999, 2020 INT POL RES I, P32 RAO MR, 1998, AGROFORESTRY TODAY, V10, P3 SANCHEZ PA, 1994, JIRCAS INT S SERIES, V1, P108 SANCHEZ PA, 1996, AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON, V58, P1 SANCHEZ PA, 1997, EUR J AGRON, V7, P15 SANCHEZ PA, 1997, PHILOS T ROY SOC B, V352, P949 SANCHEZ PA, 1997, SSSA SPECIAL PUBLICA, V51, P1 SANCHEZ PA, 2000, IN PRESS ENV DEV SUS SANCHEZ PA, 2000, UNPUB AM SOCIETY AGR SCHLESINGER WH, 1999, SCIENCE, V284, P2095 SIMONS AJ, 1998, HERBALGRAM, V43, P49 SMALING EMA, 1993, THESIS AGR U WAGENIN, P250 TOMICH TP, 1998, AGR ECON, V19, P159 TOMICH TP, 1999, POLICY RES SUSTAINAB, P14 TOMICH TP, 2000, IN PRESS AGR INTENSI WALKER BH, 1999, TERRESTRIAL BIOSPHER, P439 WALLACE JS, 2000, AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON, V82, P105 WELCH RM, 1997, ISSUES SCI TECHNOL, V14, P50 WOOMER PL, 1997, MANAGEMENT CARBON SE, P153 WOOMER PL, 2000, GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANG, P99 NR 44 TC 6 J9 AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON BP 371 EP 383 PY 2000 PD DEC VL 82 IS 1-3 GA 380ZW UT ISI:000165738700028 ER PT J AU Whitehead, PG Wilby, RL Butterfield, D Wade, AJ TI Impacts of climate change on in-stream nitrogen in a lowland chalk stream: An appraisal of adaptation strategies SO SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT LA English DT Article C1 Univ Reading, Dept Geog, Aquat Environm Res Ctr, Reading RG6 6AB, Berks, England. Environm Agcy, Trentside Off, Nottingham NG2 5FA, England. RP Whitehead, PG, Univ Reading, Dept Geog, Aquat Environm Res Ctr, Reading RG6 6AB, Berks, England. AB The impacts of climate change on nitrogen (N) in a lowland chalk stream are investigated using a dynamic modelling approach. The INCA-N model is used to simulate transient daily hydrology and water quality in the River Kennet using temperature and precipitation scenarios downscaled from the General Circulation Model (GCM) output for the period 1961-2100. The three GCMs (CGCM2, CSIRO and HadCM3) yield very different river flow regimes with the latter projecting significant periods of drought in the second half of the 21st century. Stream-water N concentrations increase over time as higher temperatures enhance N release from the soil, and lower river flows reduce the dilution capacity of the river. Particular problems are shown to occur following severe droughts when N mineralization is high and the subsequent breaking of the drought releases high nitrate loads into the river system. Possible strategies for reducing climate-driven N loads are explored using INCA-N. The measures include land use change or fertiliser reduction, reduction in atmospheric nitrate and ammonium deposition, and the introduction of water meadows or connected wetlands adjacent to the river. The most effective strategy is to change land use or reduce fertiliser use, followed by water meadow creation, and atmospheric pollution controls. Finally, a combined approach involving all three strategies is investigated and shown to reduce in-stream nitrate concentrations to those pre-1950s even under climate change. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. CR *I HYDR, 1998, HYDR DAT UK HYDR REG *WHO, 1971, INT STAND DRINK WAT ARNELL NW, 2003, J HYDROL, V270, P195 ARNELL NW, 2004, WATER ENVIRON J, V18, P112 CHAPRA SC, 1997, SURFACE WATER QUALIT DAVIDSON MB, 1997, DIS MANAG HEALTH OUT, V2, P189 HOWARTH RW, 2002, ESTUARIES, V25, P656 JAKEMAN AJ, 1993, MACROSCALE MODELLING, V214, P37 JOHNES PJ, 1993, NITRATE PROCESSES PA, P269 LIMBRICK KJ, 2000, SCI TOTAL ENVIRON, V251, P539 MACHEFERT SE, 2002, HYDROL EARTH SYST SC, V6, P325 MCINTYRE N, 2005, J HYDROL, V315, P71 NEAL C, 2002, HYDROL EARTH SYST SC, V6, P297 SKEFFINGTON R, 2002, HYDROL EARTH SYST SC, V6, P315 WADE AJ, 2002, HYDROL EARTH SYST SC, V6, P559 WADE AJ, 2002, SCI TOTAL ENVIRON, V282, P375 WADE AJ, 2004, HYDROL EARTH SYST SC, V8, P846 WADE AJ, 2004, HYDROL EARTH SYST SC, V9, P597 WADE AJ, 2006, SCI TOTAL ENVIRON, V365, P3 WHITEHEAD PG, 1990, PHILOS T ROY SOC B, V329, P403 WHITEHEAD PG, 1993, WATER RES, V27, P1377 WHITEHEAD PG, 1998, SCI TOTAL ENVIRON, V210, P547 WHITEHEAD PG, 1998, SCI TOTAL ENVIRON, V210, P559 WHITEHEAD PG, 2002, HYDROL EARTH SYST SC, V6, P455 WHITEHEAD PG, 2002, SCI TOTAL ENVIRON, V282, P417 WHITEHEAD PG, 2004, HYDROL EARTH SYST SC, V8, P533 WILBY R, 1994, J HYDROL, V153, P265 WILBY RL, IN PRESS J HYDROL WILBY RL, 2002, ENVIRON MODELL SOFTW, V17, P145 WILBY RL, 2005, HYDROL PROCESS, V19, P3201 WORRALL F, 2003, WATER RESOUR RES, V39 WRIGHT RF, 1998, HYDROL EARTH SYST SC, V2, P385 WRIGHT RF, 1998, HYDROL EARTH SYST SC, V2, P399 NR 33 TC 1 J9 SCI TOTAL ENVIR BP 260 EP 273 PY 2006 PD JUL 15 VL 365 IS 1-3 GA 065AL UT ISI:000239131700017 ER PT J AU Schneider, SH Root, TL TI Ecological implications of climate change will include surprises SO BIODIVERSITY AND CONSERVATION LA English DT Article RP Schneider, SH, STANFORD UNIV,DEPT BIOL SCI,STANFORD,CA 94305. AB In addition to assessing the impacts of CO2 doubling on environment and society, more consideration is needed to estimate extreme events or 'surprises'. This is particularly important at the intersection of disciplines like climate and ecology because the potential for large discontinuities is high given all the possible climate/biota interactions. The vast disparities in scales encountered by those working in traditional ecology (typically 20 m) and climatology (typically 200 km) make diagnoses of such interactions difficult, but these can be addressed by an emerging research paradigm we call strategic cyclical scaling (SCS). The need to anticipate outlier events and assign them subjective probabilities suggests emphasis on interdisciplinary research associations. The desire to reduce societal vulnerability to such events suggests the need to build adaptive management and diverse economic activities into social organizations. The effectiveness of adaptation responses to anticipated climatic changes is complicated when consideration of transient changes, regional disturbances, large unforseeable natural fluctuations and surprises are considered. Slowing down the rate of disturbances and decreasing vulnerability are advocated as the most prudent responses to the prospect of human-induced climatic changes. CR *IPCC, 1996, CLIM CHANGE 195 SCI BROECKER WS, 1989, GEOCHIM COSMOCHIM AC, V53, P2465 CARPENTER SR, 1995, SCIENCE, V269, P324 EHLERINGER JR, 1993, SCALING PHYSL PROCES EPSTEIN PR, 1994, ANN NY ACAD SCI, V740, P423 HOLLING CS, 1986, SUSTAINABLE DEV BIOS, V1, P1 HOUGHTON JT, 1990, CLIMATE CHANGE IPCC IDSO SB, 1993, GLOBAL BIOGEOCHEM CY, V7, P537 KAREIVA P, 1988, COMMUNITY ECOLOGY, P35 LEVIN SA, 1992, ECOLOGY, V73, P1943 MEANS IO, 1984, J CLIMATE APPL METER, V23, P1601 MORGAN MG, 1995, ENVIRON SCI TECHNOL, V29, A468 MYERS N, 1995, SCIENCE, V269, P358 NORDHAUS WD, 1994, AM SCI, V82, P45 OECHEL WC, 1994, NATURE, V371, P500 PACALA SW, 1993, BIOTIC INTERACTIONS, P57 ROOT TL, 1993, CONSERV BIOL, V7, P256 ROOT TL, 1995, SCIENCE, V269, P334 ROSENBERG NJ, 1994, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V4, P49 ROSENZWEIG C, 1993, GLOBAL EN CHANGE, V4, P7 SCHNEIDER SH, 1985, GLOBAL POSSIBLE RESO, P397 SCHNEIDER SH, 1994, SCIENCE, V263, P341 SCHNEIDER SH, 1995, ELEMENTS CHANGE 1994, P130 SMITH JB, 1988, POTENTIAL EFFECTS GL, V1 SMITH JB, 1988, POTENTIAL EFFECTS GL, V2 TITUS JG, 1996, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V33, P151 NR 26 TC 14 J9 BIODIVERS CONSERV BP 1109 EP 1119 PY 1996 PD SEP VL 5 IS 9 GA VH808 UT ISI:A1996VH80800008 ER PT J AU Seguin, B TI Adaptation of agricultural production systems to climatic change. SO COMPTES RENDUS GEOSCIENCE LA French DT Article C1 INRA, Unite Agroclim, F-84914 Avignon 9, France. RP Seguin, B, INRA, Unite Agroclim, Site Agroparc,Domaine St Paul, F-84914 Avignon 9, France. AB Adaptation of agricultural production systems to climatic change. The adaptation of agricultural production systems to climatic change needs to firstly consider the predictable impact upon vegetal production, using the available knowledge on crop ecophysiology applied for simulating the effects of climate scenarios, including the increase of atmospheric CO2. The predicted consequences are firstly presented in general terms. They are thereafter detailed for each main type of production in France (annual crops, pastures and perennial crops), taking into account recent observations about the evolution of climate and related consequences on crop phenology (especially fruit trees and vine). They lead to identify the main lines for the adaptation at the level of present cropping systems, considered as geographically stable. However, this level needs to be completed by a second one, corresponding to a possible shift in latitude or altitude, as well as the introduction of new crops. Ultimately, a third level of adaptation will correspond to the evolution of territories and land use, whose determinants will be discussed in the conclusion. (C) 2003 Academie des sciences. Publie par Editions scientifiques et medicales Elsevier SAS. CR MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 DELECOLLE R, 1999, C R ACAD AGR FRANCE, V85, P45 LADURIES EL, 1983, HIST CLIMAT DEPUIS M MOISSELIN JM, 2002, METEOROLOGIE, V38, P45 PERARNAUD V, 2002, IN PRESS WMO INT WOR REDDY KR, 2000, CLIMATE CHANGE GLOBA ROSENSWEIG C, 1998, CLIMATE CHANGE GLOBA RUGET F, 1996, MAYDICA, V41, P181 SEGUIN B, 2002, CHANGEMENT CLIMATIQU SEGUIN B, 2002, COURRIER ENV, V46, P5 SOUSSANA JF, 2001, DEMETER ARMAND COLIN, P195 NR 11 TC 1 J9 C R GEOSCI BP 569 EP 575 PY 2003 PD JUN-JUL VL 335 IS 6-7 GA 730EY UT ISI:000185817300009 ER PT J AU Dixon, AB TI Wetland sustainability and the evolution of indigenous knowledge in Ethiopia SO GEOGRAPHICAL JOURNAL LA English DT Article C1 Univ Otago, Dept Geog, Dunedin, New Zealand. RP Dixon, AB, Univ Otago, Dept Geog, Dunedin, New Zealand. AB Much research in recent years has addressed the contribution of indigenous knowledge (IK) to development initiatives in developing countries. An IK system that continuously evolves and adapts in response to environmental and socio-economic change is often considered to be at the core of sustainable natural resource management practices and rural livelihoods. In the context of indigenous wetland management in western Ethiopia, this paper examines the relationship between IK and wetland sustainability, focusing oil the mechanisms through which IK evolves and how local adaptive capacity is built up. A series of participatory research activities undertaken in four wetland communities revealed spatial variations in the degree of innovation and communication taking place. The paper argues that these mechanisms are key factors influencing adaptive capacity, suggesting a key link between wetland sustainability and the occurrence of innovation and communication among communities. CR *DPPC, 2004, RES 2004 OR *IIRR, 1996, REC US IND KNOWL MAN *WORLD BANK, 1998, IND KNOWL DEV FRAM A ABBOT PG, 2000, COMMUNITY ORG NATURA ADAMS WM, 1993, GEOGR J, V159, P209 ADAMS WM, 2001, GREEN DEV ENV SUSTAI ADGER WN, 2000, PROG HUM GEOG, V24, P347 AFEWORK H, 1998, UNPUB OVERVIEW WETLA AFEWORK H, 2000, UNPUB APPROPRIATE TE AGRAWAL A, 1995, DEV CHANGE, V26, P413 BERKES F, 1999, SACRED ECOLOGY TRADI BERKES F, 2000, ECOL APPL, V10, P1251 BINNS T, 1995, PEOPLE ENV AFRICA BOSERUP E, 1965, CONDITIONS AGR GROWT BRACE S, 1995, PEOPLE ENV AFRICA, P39 BRIGGS J, 2004, THIRD WORLD Q, V25, P661 BROKENSHA D, 1980, INDIGENOUS KNOWLEDGE BROWN D, 2002, PARTICIPATION PRACTI CHAMBERS R, 1983, RURAL DEV PUTTING LA CHAMBERS R, 1989, FARMERS 1 FARMER INN CHAMBERS R, 1994, WORLD DEV, V22, P1253 CONWAY D, 2000, HYDROLOGY WETLANDS I DENNY P, 1993, WETLANDS WORLD INVEN, V1, P32 DENNY P, 1994, WETLANDS ECOLOGY MAN, V3, P55 DEWALT BR, 1994, HUM ORGAN, V53, P123 DIXON AB, 2002, LAND DEGRAD DEV, V13, P17 DIXON AB, 2003, DEV PRACTICE, V13, P394 DIXON AB, 2003, INDIGENOUS MANAGEMEN DUGAN PJ, 1990, WETLAND CONSERVATION FARRINGTON J, 1988, 9 ODI AGR ADM UN OCC FOLKE C, 2002, AMBIO, V31, P437 GRENIER L, 1998, WORKING INDIGENOUS K HARDIN G, 1968, SCIENCE, V162, P1243 HAVERKORT B, 1999, FOOD ANCIENT VISIONS HOLLIS GE, 1990, HYDROLOG SCI J, V35, P411 JOHNSON AW, 1972, HUM ECOL, V1, P149 KEBEDE T, 1993, UNPUB EVALUATION ENV LADO C, 1998, GEOJOURNAL, V45, P165 LALONDE A, 1995, SCANDINAVIAN J DEV A, V14, P206 LEMA AJ, 1996, SUSTAINING SOIL INDI, P139 LEMILY AD, 2000, ENVIRON MANAGE, V25, P485 MALTBY E, WETLANDS HDB MALTBY E, 1986, WATERLOGGED WEALTH W MCCORKLE CM, 1995, CULTURAL DIMENSION D, P323 MUNDY PA, 1995, CULTURAL DIMENSION D, P112 NICHOLAS GP, 1998, CURR ANTHROPOL, V39, P720 PRETTY J, 2001, WORLD DEV, V29, P209 PURCELL TW, 1998, HUM ORGAN, V57, P258 RAMIREZ R, 1997, 66 IIED REIJ C, 1996, SUSTAINING SOIL INDI REIJ C, 2001, FARMER INNOVATION AF REIJNTJES C, 1992, FARMING FUTURE INTRO RHOADES RE, 1995, 1995 CULTURAL DIMENS, P296 RICHARDS P, 1985, INDIGENOUS AGR REVOL ROGGERI H, 1998, TROPICAL FRESHWATER SILLITOE P, 1998, CURR ANTHROPOL, V39, P223 SILVIUS MJ, 2000, PHYS CHEM EARTH PT B, V25, P645 SOLOMON A, 1994, ETHIOPIA AFRICAN S A, V13 STUIP MAM, 2002, SOCIOECONOMICS WETLA SWIFT J, 1979, IDB B, V10, P41 TAFESSE A, 1996, THESIS U TRIER TRIFFEN M, 1994, MORE PEOPLE LESS ERO VANVELDHUIZEN L, 1997, FARMERS RES PRACTICE WANG G, 1982, C KNOWL UT THEOR MET WARREN MD, 1995, CULTURAL DIMENSION D WOOD AP, 1996, SAH WORKSH 1996, P119 WOOD AP, 2002, STRATEGIES WISE USE, P81 WOOD AP, 2002, SUSTAINABLE WETLAND WU B, 2004, N SHAANXI AGR HUMAN, P2181 ZERIHUN W, 1998, UNPUB PLANT BIODIVER NR 70 TC 0 J9 GEOGR J BP 306 EP 323 PY 2005 PD DEC VL 171 GA 996HY UT ISI:000234166200002 ER PT J AU Thomalla, F Schmuck, H TI 'We all knew that a cyclone was coming': Disaster preparedness and the cyclone of 1999 in Orissa, India SO DISASTERS LA English DT Article C1 Stockholm Environm Inst, S-10314 Stockholm, Sweden. RP Thomalla, F, Stockholm Environm Inst, Lilla Nygatan 1, S-10314 Stockholm, Sweden. AB Imagine that a cyclone is coming, but that those living in the affected areas do nothing or too little to protect themselves. This is precisely what happened in the coastal state of Orissa, India. Individuals and communities living in regions where natural hazards are a part of daily life develop strategies to cope with and adapt to the impacts of extreme events. In October 1999, a cyclone killed 10,000 people according to government statistics, however, the unofficial death toll is much higher. This article examines why such a large loss of life occurred and looks at measures taken since then to initiate comprehensive disaster-preparedness programmes and to construct more cyclone shelters. The role of both governmental organisations and NGOs in this is critically analysed. The good news is that, based on an assessment of disaster preparedness during a small cyclone in November 2002, it can be seen that at community-level awareness was high and that many of the lessons learnt in 1999 were put into practice. Less positive, however, is the finding that at the state level collaboration continues to be problematic. CR *ADB, 1994, CLIM CHANG AS IND CO *BMTPC, 1997, VULN ATL IND 1 3 *DEC, 2000, IND EV EXP DEC IND C *GIO, 2001, CENS IND *GIO, 2002, 10 5 YEAR PLAN 2002 *IFRC, 2000, WAK DEV IND OR CYCL *IFRC, 2002, WORLD DIS REP *IFRC, 2003, DIS PREP CLIM CHANG *IMM, 2001, LEARN LESS CYCL STUD *IPCC, 2001, 3 IPCC TAR *OSDMA, 2001, P WORKSH ORG OR STAT *OXF, 2000, IND DIS REP *PEP, 2002, POV CLIM CHANG RED V *SMRC, 1998, IMP TROP CYCL COAST *TERI, 2001, IND STAT ENV 2001 *UNEP, 2002, GLOB ENV OUTL, V3 *UNWFP, 2000, FOOD INS ATL OR VULN ALI A, 1997, MAUSAM, V48, P305 ANDYOPADHYAY SK, 1999, UN FAO MISS REP AGR BEHERA A, 2002, GOV NGO COLL DIS RED BHASKAR R, 1997, MAUSAM, V48, P113 BHATT JR, 2002, CLIMATE CHANGE INDIA BLAIKIE PM, 1994, RISK NATURAL HAZARDS, V1, P1 CHOWDHURY AMR, 1993, DISASTERS, V17, P291 DAS K, 2002, EC POLITICAL WE 1130, P4784 DAS PK, 1991, P INDIAN AS-EARTH, V100, P177 DASH B, 2002, EC POLITICAL WE 1019, P4270 DASH B, 2002, THESIS JAWARAHAL NEH EMMANUEL KA, 1988, NATURE, V326, P483 ERN C, 1993, B WORLD HEALTH ORGAN, V71, P73 HOUGHTON JT, 1990, CLIMATE CHANGE IPCC KUMAR KR, 2002, CLIMATE CHANGE INDIA LONGSHORE D, 1998, ENCY HURRICANES TYPH NICHOLLS RJ, 1995, J GLOBAL ENV ENG, V1, P137 PACHAURI RK, 1992, REGIONS GLOBAL WARMI PALAKUDIYIL T, 2003, FACING STORM LOCAL C ROY BC, 2002, 8 C PART UN FRAM CON SHUKLA PR, 2002, CLIMATE CHANGE INDIA TWIGG J, 2003, EARLY WARNING SYSTEM VENGHAUS G, 2000, MAST CONT PLAN OR DI NR 40 TC 0 J9 DISASTERS BP 373 EP 387 PY 2004 PD DEC VL 28 IS 4 GA 878ZQ UT ISI:000225686600002 ER PT J AU Liverman, DM TI Vulnerability and adaptation to drought in Mexico SO NATURAL RESOURCES JOURNAL LA English DT Article C1 Univ Arizona, Dept Geog & Reg Dev, Tucson, AZ 85721 USA. RP Liverman, DM, Univ Arizona, Dept Geog & Reg Dev, Tucson, AZ 85721 USA. AB The country of Mexico has a long and varied experience with drought, whether described by early historical chronicles or contemporary climatic data and disaster declarations. Much of Mexico is semi-arid and interannual rainfall is highly variable. The experience of drought has resulted in a wide range of adaptations to climate variability, yet today many Mexicans are still extremely vulnerable to lower than average rainfall. This article provides an overview of the nature, causes and consequences of drought in Mexico, focusing on how vulnerability and adaptations vary over time anti space. Some preliminary results of a case study of the recent drought in northern Mexico illustrate the state of vulnerability and the limits of adaptation in contemporary Mexico. CR 1996, ESTADO SONORA PROGRA 1996, JORNADA 0526, P1 1996, NACIONAL 0515 1996, SOURCEMEX, V7 *AGR TRAD OFF AM E, 1996, EC CONS MEX DROUGHT *AM EMB MEX CIT, 1997, MEX AGR SIT OUTL *I NAC EST, 1985, GEOGR INF EST HIST M, P337 *SERV MET NAC, 1976, NORM CLIM PER 1940 7 ACEVESNAVARRO E, 1985, P WAT WAT POL WORLD ALEMAN PAM, 1974, WORLD SURVEY CLIMATO, V11, P345 ALTIERI MA, 1987, HUM ECOL, V15, P189 APPENDINI K, 1992, MILPA TORTIBONOS RES APPENDINI K, 1994, FOOD POLICY, V19, P149 BAHRE CJ, 1978, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V68, P145 BALLING RC, 1988, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V13, P99 BELLON MR, 1991, HUM ECOL, V19, P389 BROWN RB, 1985, POLLEN RECORDS LATE, P71 BRUSH SB, 1988, HUM ECOL, V16, P307 BRYANT NA, 1990, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V17, P243 CASASUS C, 1994, J AM WATER WORKS ASS, V86, P69 CAVAZOS T, 1990, INT J CLIMATOL, V10, P377 CERVERA JSY, 1981, J HYDROL, V51, P41 CERVERA JSY, 1981, J HYDROL, V51, P43 CULBERT TP, 1973, CLASSIC MAYA COLLAPS, P11 CUMMINGS RG, 1972, WATER RESOURCE MANAG CUMMINGS RG, 1989, WATERWORKS IMPROVING DAHLIN BH, 1983, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V5, P245 DEEVEY ES, 1944, AM ANTIQUITY, V10, P135 DEJANVRY A, 1995, REFORMAS SECTOR AGR, P67 DIAZCISNEROS H, 1994, EC RESTRUCTURING RUR DILLEY FB, 1993, THESIS PENN STATE U, P220 DILLEY M, 1996, INT J CLIMATOL, V16, P1019 DOUGLAS A, 1996, MEXICAN TEMPERATURE EAKIN HC, 1997, THESIS U ARIZ, P156 FLORESCANO E, 1969, PRECIOS MAIZ CRISIS FLORESCANO E, 1980, NEXOS, V32, P9 GOMEZ MA, 1989, CIUDADES MEXICANAS U HODELL DA, 1995, NATURE, V375, P391 KIRKBY VT, 1973, MEMOIRS MUSEUM ANTHR, V1 LEES S, 1976, ECOLOGIST, V6, P20 LIVERMAN DM, 1989, UNPUB ANN M ASS AM G LIVERMAN DM, 1990, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V80, P49 LIVERMAN DM, 1991, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V1, P351 LIVERMAN DM, 1994, ENV RISKS HAZARDS, P326 LIVERMAN DM, 1995, UNPUB 1 OP C HUM DIM LIVERMAN DM, 1996, UNPUB PRELIMINARY AS LOREY DE, 1990, US MEXICO BORDER STA, P93 MANGELSDORF PC, 1974, CORN MATILDE PU, 1995, JORNADA 0529, P5 MEDELLINLEAL F, 1978, I INVESTIGACION ZONA METCALFE SE, 1987, GEOGR J, V153, P211 MICHAELS PJ, 1982, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V4, P255 MINNIS PE, 1991, J ETHNOBIOL, V11, P231 MORICHI M, 1995, DROUGHT BRINGS SEVER MURPHY AD, 1991, SOCIAL INEQUALITY OA MUSSET A, 1991, LEAU VIVE EAU MORTE NGUYEN D, 1979, ECON J, V89, P624 PATTERSON J, 1996, AGR SITUATION DROUGH QUINTANA VM, 1996, INFOSEL SCOTT SD, 1966, DENDROCHRONOLOGY MEX VELASCO E, 1996, EXCELSIOR PRIMERA PL, V4 WILKEN GC, 1987, GOOD FARMERS TRADITI, P176 ZENTENO RB, 1988, GRANDES PROBLEMAS CI NR 63 TC 5 J9 NATUR RESOUR J BP 99 EP 115 PY 1999 PD WIN VL 39 IS 1 GA 279LJ UT ISI:000085045000016 ER PT J AU Smith, JB TI Setting priorities for adapting to climate change SO GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS LA English DT Article AB It is not likely that efforts to control greenhouse gas emissions will completely eliminate the risk of climate change, Thus, policymakers will eventually have to address adaptation to the effects of climate change, Given the uncertainties about the timing, direction, and magnitude of regional climate change, it might seem preferable to postpone adaptive measures until after climate changes, Yet, this may not produce satisfactory results if climate change impacts are irreversible or catastrophic, long-lived resource systems are affected, or current trends make adaptation less likely to succeed in the future, In these cases, policy changes in anticipation of climate change may be justified, Anticipatory climate change measures need to be flexible-they should absorb impacts or enable a system to quickly recovery under a wide variety of climate situations. In addition, they should be economically efficient, that is their benefits should exceed their costs, Although many measures are appropriate anticipatory measures, not all of them need to be implemented now, Those most in need of immediate implementation should meet at least one of the following criteria: (1) address irreversible or costly impacts; (2) be urgent, i.e. reverse trends that make adoption of the measure more difficult over time; or (3) address long-term decisions, such as building infrastructure, A method is proposed for natural resource policymakers to use in analyzing the need for anticipatory adaptation policies and the effectiveness of policy options to anticipate climate change. This method enables policy makers to identify those anticipatory policies most in need of immediate implementation. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science Ltd, All rights reserved. CR *NAS, 1979, CARB DIOX CLIM SCI A *NAS, 1992, POL IMPL GREENH WARM *OFF TECHN ASS, 1993, OTAO567 *OFF TECHN ASS, 1993, OTAO568 *VEMAP MEMB, 1995, GLOBAL BIOGEOCHEMICA, V9, P407 *WWF, 1992, CAN NATUR SURV GLOB AUSUBEL JH, 1991, AM SCI, V79, P210 BALDWIN MF, 1989, POTENTIAL EFFECTS GL BENIOFF R, 1996, VULNERABILITY ADAPTA CARTER TR, 1994, IPCC TECHNICAL GUIDE DANSGAARD W, 1993, NATURE, V364, P218 DAVIS MB, 1989, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V15, P75 ESTESSMARGIASSI S, 1992, COMMUNICATION FIERING MB, 1990, CLIMATE CHANGE US WA, P75 FORD A, 1990, ENERG POLICY, P331 FREDERICK KD, 1990, CLIMATE CHANGE US WA, P395 GLANTZ MH, 1988, SOC RESPONSES REGION HOUGHTON JT, 1990, CLIMATE CHANGE IPCC HOUGHTON JT, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995 LEWANDROWSKI JK, 1993, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V23, P1 LOGAN DM, 1994, MODELING RENEWABLE E MAJOR DC, 1992, 28 ANN C S MAN WAT R MCCULLOCH J, 1995, P WORKSH IMPR RESP A MORSE LE, 1993, POTENTIAL EFFECT CLI MURPHY DD, 1992, GLOBAL WARMING BIOL, P355 NICHOLLS RJ, 1995, CLIMATE CHANGES INT PATZ JA, 1996, JAMA-J AM MED ASSOC, V275, P217 PETERS RL, 1992, GLOBAL WARMING BIOL POLAND WB, 1988, ENERGY J, V9, P19 RIEBSAME WE, 1991, GREAT PLAINS RES, V1, P133 ROSENBERG NJ, 1992, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V21, P385 SCHWARZ HE, 1990, CLIMATE CHANGE US WA, P341 SMIT B, 1996, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V33, P7 SMITH JB, 1989, POTENTIAL EFFECTS GL SMITH JB, 1991, ADAPTING CLIMATE CHA SMITH TM, 1993, NATURE, V361, P523 TITUS JG, 1990, APA J SUM, P311 TITUS JG, 1991, ENVIRON MANAGE, V15, P39 WATSON RT, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, V1, P1 NR 39 TC 9 J9 GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANGE BP 251 EP 264 PY 1997 PD OCT VL 7 IS 3 GA YL583 UT ISI:A1997YL58300004 ER PT J AU Adams, RM Hurd, BH Lenhart, SS Leary, N TI Effects of global climate change on agriculture: an interpretative review SO CLIMATE RESEARCH LA English DT Review C1 Oregon State Univ, Dept Agr & Resource Econ, Corvallis, OR 97331 USA. Hagler Bailly Inc, Boulder, CO 80306 USA. US EPA, Washington, DC 20460 USA. RP Adams, RM, Oregon State Univ, Dept Agr & Resource Econ, Corvallis, OR 97331 USA. AB Climate is the primary determinant of agricultural productivity. Concern over the potential effects of long-term climatic change on agriculture has motivated a substantial body of research over the past decade. This body of research addresses possible physical effects of climatic change on agriculture, such as changes in crop and livestock yields, as well as the economic consequences of these potential yield changes. This paper reviews the extant literature on these physical and economic effects and interprets this research in terms of common themes or findings. Of particular interest are findings concerning the role of human adaptations in responding to climate change, possible regional impacts to agricultural systems and potential changes in patterns of food production and prices. Limitations and sensitivities of these findings are discussed and key areas of uncertainty are highlighted. Finally, some speculations regarding issues of potential importance in interpreting and using information on climate change and agriculture are presented. CR *CAST, 1992, 119 CAST *CNSCG, 1997, DRAFT FIN REP UR CLI *FAO, 1995, STAT FOOD AGR 1995 *IPCC, 1996, IPCC 2 ASS REP, V2, P427 *OTA, 1993, PREP UNC CLIM ADAMS RM, 1986, AM J AGR ECON, V68, P885 ADAMS RM, 1988, W J AGR EC, V13, P348 ADAMS RM, 1990, NATURE, V345, P219 ADAMS RM, 1995, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V30, P147 ADAMS RM, 1998, IN PRESS EC CLIMATE, CH2 ALLEN LH, 1987, GLOBAL BIOGEOCHEM CY, V1, P1 ALSTON JM, 1995, SCI SCARCITY PRINCIP ANTLE JM, 1987, AM J AGR ECON, V69, P509 BAETHGEN WE, 1994, IMPLICATIONS CLIMATE, P1 CROSSON PR, 1994, FOOD POLICY, V19, P105 CURE JD, 1986, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V38, P127 DARWIN RF, 1995, 703 USDA EC RES SERV DESIQUEIRA OJF, 1994, IMPLICATIONS CLIMATE DILLON JD, 1990, ANAL RESPONSE CROP L EASTERLING WE, 1993, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V24, P23 EASTERLING WE, 1996, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V80, P1 HALL D, 1997, P INT ASS AGR EC BIA HANSON JD, 1993, AGR SYST, V41, P487 HURD BH, 1994, J AGR RESOUR ECON, V19, P313 KAISER HM, 1993, AM J AGR ECON, V75, P387 KANE SM, 1992, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V21, P17 KIMBALL BA, 1983, AGRON J, V75, P779 LIVERMAN DM, 1991, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V1, P351 MAGRIN GO, IN PRESS P C NAT ASS MENDELSOHN R, 1994, AM ECON REV, V84, P753 POPE RD, 1982, AM J AGR ECON, V63, P161 REILLY JM, 1993, AM ECON REV, V83, P306 REILLY JM, 1994, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V4, P24 RITCHIE J, 1989, USERS GUIDE CERES MA ROSENBERG NJ, 1992, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V21, P385 ROSENZWEIG C, 1994, NATURE, V367, P133 ROSENZWEIG C, 1995, CLIMATE CHANGES INT, P27 ROSENZWEIG NJ, 1994, 230B94003 EPA ROSENZWEIG NJ, 1995, CONSEQUENCES SUM, P24 SALA OE, 1994, IMPLICATIONS CLIMATE, P1 SCHERAGA JD, 1993, ILASA COLL PAPER SER, P107 SCHIMMELPFENNIG D, 1996, 740 USDA NAT RES ENV SEGERSON K, 1998, EC IMPACTS CLIMATE C SMITH JB, 1996, VULNERABILITY ADAPTA SUTHERST RW, 1995, INSECTS CHANGING ENV, P59 WAGGONER PE, 1983, AGR CLIMATE CHANGED, P383 NR 46 TC 14 J9 CLIMATE RES BP 19 EP 30 PY 1998 PD DEC 17 VL 11 IS 1 GA 168YF UT ISI:000078720200003 ER PT J AU Vasquez-Leon, M West, CT Finan, TJ TI A comparative assessment of climate vulnerability: agriculture and ranching on both sides of the US-Mexico border SO GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS LA English DT Article C1 Univ Arizona, Bur Appl Res Anthorpol, Tucson, AZ 85721 USA. RP Vasquez-Leon, M, Univ Arizona, Bur Appl Res Anthorpol, Anthropol Room 316,POB 210030, Tucson, AZ 85721 USA. AB Social science research on climate vulnerability tends to be limited to case studies in either industrial countries or in less-developed nations. The empirical study presented here takes a comparative approach across this divide by examining rural livelihoods on both sides of the United States-Mexico border. Looking beyond single agricultural systems, crossing borders and listening to rural producers in this semi-arid environment offers a more complete picture of how differences in access to resources, state involvement, class and ethnicity result in drastically different vulnerabilities within a similar biophysical context. We distinguish between coping and buffering in examining adaptation strategies and place an emphasis on the historical context of vulnerability as a dynamic social process with socioeconomic and environmental consequences. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *AR DEP WAT RES, 1994, AR WAT RES HYDR SUMM, V2 *INEGI, 1994, DAT EJ COM AGR 11 CE *INEGI, 1996, SON DAT EJ COM AGR 1 *INEGI, 2000, 12 CENS GEN POBL VIV *ISPE, 1999, PREP CHANG CLIM POT *MUN AL, 1989, PLAN DEES MUN 1988 1 *NASS, 1997, AR CENS UAGR USDA *SAGAR, 1997, UNPUB *US CENS BUR, 2000, GAZ COUNT SUBD *US CENS BUR, 2000, GAZ PLAC *USDA, 1997, NAT AGR STAT SERV FA ADGER N, 2003, GLOB ENV CHANG FOOD ADGER WN, 1999, MITIGATION ADAPTATIO, V4, P252 AYER H, 2001, ARIZONA WATER USE AR BAHRE CJ, 1991, LEGACY CHANGE HIST BAHRE CJ, 1996, J SW, V38, P1 BAILEY LR, 1994, WELL ALL WEAR SILKS BLAIKIE PM, 1994, RISK NATURAL HAZARDS, V1, P1 BOHLE HG, 1994, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V4, P37 BROOKS E, 1995, REGIONS RISK COMP TH, P255 BRYANT CR, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P181 CAMPBELL DJ, 1999, HUM ECOL, V27, P377 CHAVEZ OE, 1999, NAT RESOUR J, V39, P35 CHIOTTI QP, 1997, AGR RESTRUCTURING SU CLARK L, 1997, AGR DEV RESOURCE MAN, P11 CONLEY J, 1999, CLIMAS REPORT SERIES CORBETT J, 1988, WORLD DEV, V16, P1099 DAVIES S, 1996, ADAPTABLE LIVELIHOOD EAKIN H, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P19 ERICKSON K, 1997, DOING TEAM ETHNOGRAP FINAN TJ, 2000, CLIMAS REPORT SERIES FINAN TJ, 2002, CLIMATE RES, V21, P299 GRANJON D, 1999, ENQUETES RESULTATS A HAMMER GL, 2000, APPL SEASONAL CLIMAT HEWITT K, 1983, INTERPRETATIONS CALA HUSAIN A, 2000, HISPANIC FARMERS SUE ILBERY B, 1997, AGR RESTRUCTURING SU JOHNSON D, 1992, ECOLOGIA RECURSOS NA KANE SM, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P1 KASPERSON JX, 1995, REGIONS RISK, V1, P1 KATES RW, 1985, CLIMATE IMPACT ASSES, P151 KATES RW, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P5 KINSEY B, 1998, WORLD DEV, V26, P89 LIVERMAN DM, 1999, NAT RESOUR J, V39, P99 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 MERIDETH R, 2001, PRIMER CLIMATIC VARI MEZEHAUSKEN E, 2000, MIGRATION ADAPTATION, V5, P379 MOREHOUSE BJ, 2000, NAT RESOUR J, V40, P783 NELSON DR, 2000, PRACTICING ANTHR, V22, P6 NORBERGBOHM V, 2001, GLOBAL ENV RISK, P55 PENA EM, 1985, HIST CONT SONORA 19, P541 SANDERSON SE, 1981, AGRARIAN POPULISM ME SCHULTZ VB, 1980, SW TOWN STORY WILLCO SHERIDAN TE, 1996, ARIZONA HIST SHERIDAN TE, 2001, HUM ORGAN, V60, P141 SMIT B, 1999, MITIGATION ADAPTATIO, V4, P199 SMIT B, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P223 SMITHERS J, 1997, AGR RESTRUCTURING SU, P167 SPICER EH, 1962, CYCLES CONQUEST IMPA STERN PC, 1999, MAKING CLIMATE FORES TOL RSJ, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE EXTRE, P17 VARLEY A, 1994, DISASTERS DEV ENV VASQUEZLEON M, IN PRESS POLITICAL E VASQUEZLEON M, 2002, CLIMAS REPORT SERIES VOSS SF, 1982, PERIPHERY 19 CENTURY WAGONER JJ, 1952, CLIMATE IND S ARIZON, V20 WARRICK RA, 1983, INTERPRETATIONS CALA, P67 WATSON RT, 1998, REGIONAL IMPACTS CLI, V1, P1 WEST RC, 1993, SONORA ITS GEOGRAPHI ZAMACONA GG, 1990, COLECCION EL TEJABAN, V3 NR 70 TC 0 J9 GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANGE BP 159 EP 173 PY 2003 PD OCT VL 13 IS 3 GA 725ND UT ISI:000185548500002 ER PT J AU Rounsevell, MDA Evans, SP Bullock, P TI Climate change and agricultural soils: Impacts and adaptation SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Review C1 Cranfield Univ, Sch Agr Food & Environm, Soil Survey & Land Res Ctr, Bedford MK45 4DT, England. RP Rounsevell, MDA, Univ Catholique Louvain, Pl Louis Pasteur 3, B-1348 Louvain, Belgium. AB This article reviews the current state of knowledge on the response of soils to climate change, and the implications such changes have for agriculture. The article is based on the material reported in the IPCC second assessment report (Watson et al., 1996) and updated with more recent information, where appropriate. The review highlights the importance of understanding the dynamics of soil processes when addressing climate change impacts on agriculture. Rapid soil responses to climate change (e.g. soil water, organic carbon and erodibility) have been widely investigated and reported in the literature. However, it is important that longer-term processes (e.g. pedogenesis) are not ignored by the research community because these have potentially important implications for long-term agricultural land use and are often irreversible. 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SHNAYDMAN VM, 1993, WATER RES MANAGE, V7, P39 SINGH B, 1991, AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON, V35, P327 SMETTEM KRJ, 1992, SOIL TILL RES, V22, P27 SMITH P, 1996, NATO ASI SERIES I, V38, P81 SMITH TM, 1993, WATER AIR SOIL POLL, V70, P19 SOLOMON AM, 1993, WATER AIR SOIL POLL, V70, P595 TEGEN I, 1996, NATURE, V380, P419 THOMPSON SA, 1992, PHYSICAL GEOGR, V13, P31 TINKER PB, 1990, SOILS WARMER EARTH, P71 VANVEEN JA, 1981, CAN J SOIL SCI, V61, P185 VARALLYAY G, 1994, NATO ASI SER, V23, P39 WAELBROECK C, 1993, ECOL MODEL, V69, P185 WAGENET RJ, 1992, QUANTITATIVE MODELLI, P17 WATSON RT, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, V1, P1 WHITE RE, 1981, INTRO PRINCIPLES PRA, P198 WOLF J, 1993, EUR J AGRON, V2, P281 WOLF J, 1995, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V29, P299 WOODWARD FI, 1995, NEW PHYTOL, V131, P311 NR 133 TC 5 J9 CLIMATIC CHANGE BP 683 EP 709 PY 1999 PD DEC VL 43 IS 4 GA 248KD UT ISI:000083272900003 ER PT J AU Frickel, S Davidson, DJ TI Building environmental states - Legitimacy and rationalization in sustainability governance SO INTERNATIONAL SOCIOLOGY LA English DT Article C1 Tulane Univ, Dept Sociol, New Orleans, LA 70118 USA. Univ Alberta, Dept Rural Econ, Edmonton, AB T6G 2H1, Canada. Univ Alberta, Dept Renewable Resources, Edmonton, AB T6G 2H1, Canada. RP Frickel, S, Tulane Univ, Dept Sociol, 220 Newcomb Hall, New Orleans, LA 70118 USA. AB This article explores the potential for nation-states to become substantial contributors to sustainability governance. This potential resides in the ability of nation-states to make environmental protection a basic goal, in part by committing institutional resources toward the formation and implementation of substantive actions perceived necessary for long-term environmental sustainability. Existing research suggests that nation-states undertake environmental action in order to maintain legitimacy in the face of political pressure. While the maintenance of legitimacy is necessary, we argue that a substantive state role in sustainability governance is also dependent upon the rationalization of state environmental roles. Further, rationalization can be fostered through the enrichment of embedded state-societal networks with two key actors in civil society: environmental justice movements and environmental knowledge professionals. This article develops a conceptual framework that grounds sustainability efforts in rationalization processes and examines the synergistic potential for these two social actors to help build states that institute fundamental environmental reform. 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RP Beechie, T, NOAA Fisheries, NW Fisheries Sci Ctr, 2725 Montlake Blvd E, Seattle, WA 98112 USA. AB Life history diversity of imperiled Pacific salmon Oncorhynchus spp. substantially contributes to their persistence, and conservation of such diversity is a critical element of recovery efforts. Preserving and restoring diversity of life history traits depends in part on environmental factors affecting their expression. We analyzed relationships between annual hydrograph patterns and life history. traits (spawn timing, age at spawning, age at outmigration, and body size) of Puget Sound Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) to identify environmental indicators of current and historic diversity. Based on mean monthly flow patterns, we identified three hydrologic regimes: snowmelt-dominated, rainfall-dominated, and transitional. Chinook populations in snowmelt-dominated areas contained higher proportions of the stream-type life history (juvenile residence > 1 year in freshwater), had older spawners, and tended to spawn earlier in the year than populations in rainfall-dominated areas. There are few extant Puget Sound populations dominated by the stream-type life history, as several populations with high proportions of stream-type fish have been extirpated by construction of dams that prevent migration into snowmelt-dominated reaches. The few extant populations are thus a high priority for conservation. The low level of genetic distinction between stream-type and ocean-type (juvenile residence < 1 year in freshwater) life histories suggests that allowing some portion of extant populations to recolonize habitats above dams might allow re-expression of suppressed life history characteristics, creating a broader spatial distribution of the stream-type life history. Climate change ultimately may limit the effectiveness of some conservation efforts, as stream-type Chinook may be dependent on a diminishing snowmelt-dominated habitat. Published by Elsevier Ltd. CR *ESU, 1999, FED REG NOT PUG SOUN, V64 *WDF WDW WWTIT, 1993, 1992 WASH STAT SALM ADKISON MD, 1995, CAN J FISH AQUAT SCI, V52, P2762 BEACHAM TD, 1987, CAN J FISH AQUAT SCI, V44, P244 BEACHAM TD, 1989, CAN J ZOOL, V67, P2081 BEER WN, 2001, CAN J FISH AQUAT SCI, V58, P943 BESCHTA RL, 2000, J HYDROL, V233, P102 BLACK RW, 1998, 974164 US GEOL SURV BOOTH DB, 1997, J AM WATER RESOUR AS, V33, P1077 BRANNON EL, 1972, INT PAC SALMON FISH, V21 BRANNON EL, 1981, CAN J ZOOL, V59, P1548 BRANNON EL, 1987, CAN SPEC PUBL FISH A, V96, P120 CORONADO C, 1998, B MAR SCI, V62, P409 DALY C, 1998, W US AVERAGE MONTHLY EBBERT JC, 2000, 1216 USGS FORD MJ, 2004, EVOLUTION ILLUMINATE, P338 FRANSEN S, 1977, STILLAGUAMISH WATERS GOOD TP, 2005, NMFSNWFSC66 NOAA US GROOT C, 1991, PACIFIC SALMON LIFE HANKIN DG, 1993, CAN J FISH AQUAT SCI, V50, P347 HEALEY MC, 1991, PACIFIC SALMON LIFE, P311 HEALEY MC, 1995, AM FISH S S, V17, P176 HEALEY MC, 2001, J FISH BIOL, V58, P1545 HENDRY AP, 2003, CONSERV BIOL, V17, P795 HILBORN R, 2003, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V100, P6564 HODGSON S, 2002, CAN J ZOOL, V80, P542 KENDALL BE, 2002, CONSERV BIOL, V16, P109 KERWIN J, 1999, SALMON HABITAT LIMIT KINNISON MI, 1998, CAN J FISH AQUAT SCI, V55, P1946 KINNISON MT, 2001, EVOLUTION, V55, P1656 MANLY BFJ, 1994, MULTIVARIATE STAT ME MANTUA N, 2004, AM FISH S S, V43, P127 MARSCHALL EA, 1998, CAN J FISH AQUAT S1, V55, P48 MARSHALL AR, 1995, GENETIC DIVERSITY UN MCELHANY P, 2000, NMFSNWFSC42 US DEP C METCALFE NA, 1998, CAN J FISH AQUAT S1, V55, P93 MILLER I, 1999, JE FREUNDS MATH STAT MONTGOMERY DR, 1999, CAN J FISH AQUAT SCI, V56, P377 MOTE PW, 2003, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V61, P45 MYERS JM, 1998, NMFSNWFSC35 NOAA US NEHLSEN W, 1991, FISHERIES, V16, P4 PESS G, 2003, RESTORATION PUGET SO, P129 QUINN TP, 1985, CONTRIB MAR SCI S, V27, P353 QUINN TP, 1996, ECOLOGY, V77, P1151 QUINN TP, 2000, EVOLUTION, V54, P1372 QUINN TP, 2001, CAN J ZOOL, V79, P1782 QUINN TP, 2002, T AM FISH SOC, V131, P591 RICKER WE, 1972, STOCK CONCEPT PACIFI, P19 RONI P, 1995, N AM J FISH MANAGE, V15, P325 RUCKELSHAUS M, IN PRESS INDEPENDENT RUCKELSHAUS M, 2003, IMPORTANCE SPECIES P, P305 RUCKELSHAUS M, 2004, SPECIES CONSERVATION, P208 RUCKELSHAUS MH, 2002, ANNU REV ECOL SYST, V33, P665 SMITH SB, 1969, S SALM TROUT STREAMS, P21 STEARNS SC, 1992, EVOLUTION LIFE HIST TAYLOR EB, 1990, J FISH BIOL, V37, P1 TAYLOR EB, 1991, AQUACULTURE, V98, P185 THORPE JE, 1987, AM FISH SOC S, V1, P244 UNWIN MJ, 1997, FISH B-NOAA, V95, P812 UNWIN MJ, 2000, J FISH BIOL, V57, P943 VENABLES WN, 1998, MODERN APPL STAT S WAPLES RS, 2001, J FISH BIOL A, V59, P1 WAPLES RS, 2004, EVOLUTION, V58, P386 WATTERS JV, 2003, BIOL CONSERV, V112, P435 WEBB JH, 1996, CAN J FISH AQUAT SCI, V53, P2739 WILLIAMS JR, 1985, 84144B US GEOL SURV WILLIAMS RW, 1975, CATALOG WASHINGTON S, V1 WILLSON MF, 1997, PNWRP498 USDA FOR SE NR 68 TC 1 J9 BIOL CONSERV BP 560 EP 572 PY 2006 PD JUL VL 130 IS 4 GA 058AQ UT ISI:000238636900009 ER PT J AU Rivington, M Matthews, KB Bellocchi, G Buchan, K Stockle, CO Donatelli, M TI An integrated assessment approach to conduct analyses of climate change impacts on whole-farm systems SO ENVIRONMENTAL MODELLING & SOFTWARE LA English DT Article C1 Macaulay Inst, Aberdeen AB15 8QH, Scotland. Res Inst Ind Crops, I-40128 Bologna, Italy. Washington State Univ, Dept Biol Syst Engn, Pullman, WA 99164 USA. RP Rivington, M, Macaulay Inst, Aberdeen AB15 8QH, Scotland. AB This paper argues that an integrated assessment (IA) approach, combining simulation modelling with deliberative processes involving decision makers and other stakeholders, has the potential to generate credible and relevant assessments of climate change impacts on farming systems. The justification for the approach proposed is that while simulation modelling provides an effective way of exploring the range of possible impacts of climate change and a means of testing the consequences of possible management or policy interventions, the interpretation of the outputs is highly dependent on the point of view of the stakeholder. Inevitably, whatever the responses to climate change, there will be tradeoffs between the benefits and costs to a range of stakeholders. The use of a deliberative process that includes stakeholders, both in defining the topics addressed and in debating the interpretations of the outcomes, addresses many of the limitations that have been previously identified in the use of computer-based tools for agricultural decision support. The paper further argues that the concepts of resilience and adaptive capacity are useful for the assessment of climate change impacts as they provide an underpinning theory for processes of change in land use systems. The integrated modelling framework (IMF) developed for the simulation of whole-farm systems is detailed, including components for crop and soil processes, livestock systems and a tool for scheduling of resource use within management plans. The use of the IMF for assessing climate change impacts is then outlined to demonstrate the range of analyses possible. The paper concludes with a critique of the IA approach and notes that issues of quantification and communication of uncertainty are central to the success of the methodology. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *FAO UNEP, 1977, FAO SOILS B, V34 *IPCC, 2000, SPEC REP EM SCEN *LADSS, 2005, LAND ALL DEC SUPP SY BELLOCCHI G, 2004, 8 EUR SOC AGR C 11 1, P219 COOPER G, 1997, J AGR ENG RES, V68, P253 EASTERLING WE, 1996, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V80, P1 FRANCIS PE, 1981, 108 MET OFF GHAFFARI A, 2002, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V55, P509 GUNDERSON LH, 2002, PANARCHY UNDERSTANDI, V1, P1 HARE MP, 2002, INTEGRATED ASSESSMEN, P73 HOLDEN NM, 2003, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V116, P181 IZAURRALDE RC, 2003, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V117, P97 JOHNSTON T, 2000, J AIR WASTE MANAGE, V50, P563 MATTHEWS KB, IN PRESS AGR SYSTEMS MATTHEWS KB, 2003, P MODSIM 2003 INT C, V4, P1534 MEINKE H, 2001, AGR SYST, V70, P493 MERRITT WS, 2005, ENVIRON MODELL SOFTW, V20, P1013 MURPHY JM, 2004, NATURE, V430, P768 REICHERT P, 2005, ENVIRON MODELL SOFTW, V20, P991 REILLY JM, 2003, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V57, P43 RIVINGTON M, 2003, P MODSIM 2003 INT C, V4, P1528 SOUTHWORTH J, 2002, CLIMATE RES, V22, P73 STOCKLE CO, 2003, EUR J AGRON, V18, P289 TAN GX, 2003, ECOL MODEL, V168, P357 TOPP CFE, 1996, AGR SYST, V52, P243 TUBIELLO FN, 2000, EUR J AGRON, V13, P179 TUBIELLO FN, 2002, EUR J AGRON, V18, P57 WALSH PD, 1981, WEATHER, V36, P201 WHEELER TR, 2000, AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON, V82, P159 NR 29 TC 2 J9 ENVIRON MODELL SOFTW BP 202 EP 210 PY 2007 PD FEB VL 22 IS 2 GA 112UH UT ISI:000242552300009 ER PT J AU Bouwer, LM Aerts, JCJH TI Financing climate change adaptation SO DISASTERS LA English DT Article C1 Vrije Univ Amsterdam, Inst Environm Studies, Fac Earth & Life Sci, Amsterdam, Netherlands. RP Bouwer, LM, Boelelaan 1087, NL-1081 HV Amsterdam, Netherlands. AB This paper examines the topic of financing adaptation in future climate change policies. A major question is whether adaptation in developing countries should be financed under the 1992 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), or whether funding should come from other sources. We present an overview of financial resources and propose the employment of a two-track approach: one track that attempts to secure climate change adaptation funding under the UNFCCC; and a second track that improves mainstreaming of climate risk management in development efforts. Developed countries would need to demonstrate much greater commitment to the funding of adaptation measures if the UNFCCC were to cover a substantial part of the costs. The mainstreaming of climate change adaptation could follow a risk management path, particularly in relation to disaster risk reduction. 'Climate-proofing' of development projects that currently do not consider climate and weather risks could improve their sustainability. CR *ADB, 2003, POV CLIM CHANG RED V *EC, 2002, EUR COMM RESP FLOOD *EC, 2003, CLIM CHANG CONT DEV *GEF, 2003, PROP GEF APPR AD CLI *GEF, 2004, GEF ASS ADDR AD *IFRC, 2002, WORLD DIS REP 2002 F *WORLD BANK, 2001, WORLD DEV REP 2000 2 AERTS JCJ, 2004, CLIMATE CHANGE CONTR BENSON C, 2004, HUMANITARIAN EXHANGE, P44 BENSON C, 2004, MEASURING MITIGATION BERGKAMP G, 1999, WETLANDS CLIMATE CHA BOUWER LM, 2004, CLIMATE OPTIONS BROA, P173 BOUWER LM, 2005, WATER SCI TECHNOL, V51, P89 BURTON I, 2000, CLIMATE CHANGE DEV, P153 BURTON I, 2004, LOOK BEFORE LEAP RIS FOX IB, 2003, REDUCING VULNERABILI GUPTA J, 2003, W0309 U AMST I ENV S HOFF H, 2003, RISK MANAGEMENT WATE HOFF H, 2005, VIERTELJAHRSHEFTE WI, V74, P196 HUQ S, 2002, CLIM POLICY, V2, P243 HUQ S, 2003, FUNDING ADAPTATION C HUQ S, 2003, MAINSTREAMING ADAPTA HUQ S, 2004, IDS BULL-I DEV STUD, V35, P15 KLEIN RJT, 2001, ADAPTATION CLIMATE C LIM B, 2004, USERS GUIDEBOOK ADAP MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 MIAMIDIAN E, 2005, DISASTER RISK MANAGE, V10 MIRZA MMQ, 2003, CLIM POLICY, V3, P233 RADKA M, 2000, METHODOLOGICAL TECHN ROJAS A, 2004, UNPUB LINKING ADAPTA ROSA LP, 2004, ENERG POLICY, V32, P1499 SMIT B, 1999, MITIGATION ADAPTATIO, V4, P199 SPERLING F, 2005, DISASTER RISK MANAGE TOL RSJ, 1998, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V8, P109 VANAALST M, 2004, PREPAREDNESS CLIMATE VELLINGA P, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, P417 NR 36 TC 2 J9 DISASTERS BP 49 EP 63 PY 2006 PD MAR VL 30 IS 1 GA 017LA UT ISI:000235693900005 ER PT J AU Corfee-Morlot, J Hohne, N TI Climate change: long-term targets and short-term commitments SO GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS LA English DT Article C1 ECOFYS Energy & Environm, D-50933 Cologne, Germany. OECD Environm Directorate, F-75775 Paris 16, France. RP Hohne, N, ECOFYS Energy & Environm, Eupener Str 59, D-50933 Cologne, Germany. AB International negotiations under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change could take several different approaches to advance future mitigation commitments. Options range from trying to reach consensus on specific long-term atmospheric concentration targets (e.g. 550 ppmv) to simply ignoring this contentious issue and focusing instead on what can be done in the nearer term. This paper argues for a strategy that lies between these two extremes. Internationally agreed threshold levels for certain categories of impacts or of risks posed by climate change could be translated into acceptable levels of atmospheric concentrations. This could help to establish a range of upper limits for global emissions in the medium term that could set the ambition level for negotiations on expanded GHG mitigation commitments. The paper thus considers how physical and socio-economic indicators of climate change impacts might be used to guide the setting of such targets. In an effort to explore the feasibility and implications of low levels of stabilisation, it also quantifies an intermediate global emission target for 2020 that keeps open the option to stabilise at 450 ppmv CO2 = If new efforts to reduce emissions are not forthcoming (e.g. the Kyoto Protocol or similar mitigation efforts fail), there is a significant chance that the option of 450 ppmv CO2 is out of reach as of 2020. Regardless of the preferred approach to shaping new international commitments on climate change, progress will require improved information on the avoided impacts climate change at different levels of mitigation and careful assessment of mitigation costs. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 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RP Vose, RS, Natl Climat Ctr, Asheville, NC 28801 USA. CR *IPCC, 2001, IPCC CLIM CHANG 2001 EASTERLING DR, 1996, PUBLICATION OAK RIDG, V4500 HANSEN J, 2001, J GEOPHYS RES-ATMOS, V106, P23947 KALNAY E, 2003, NATURE, V423, P528 KARL TR, 1986, J CLIM APPL METEOROL, V25, P145 OWEN TW, 1998, INT J REMOTE SENS, V19, P3451 NR 6 TC 0 J9 NATURE BP 213 EP 214 PY 2004 PD JAN 15 VL 427 IS 6971 GA 763HE UT ISI:000188068100033 ER PT J AU Dempsey, R Fisher, A TI Consortium for Atlantic Regional Assessment: Information tools for community adaptation to changes in climate or land use SO RISK ANALYSIS LA English DT Article C1 CSIRO, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia. Penn State Univ, Dept Agr Econ & Rural Sociol, University Pk, PA 16802 USA. Penn State Univ, Penn State Inst Environm, University Pk, PA 16802 USA. RP Dempsey, R, CSIRO, GPO Box 1666, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia. AB To inform local and regional decisions about protecting short-term and long-term quality of life, the Consortium for Atlantic Regional Assessment (CARA) provides data and tools (for the northeastern United States) that can help decisionmakers understand how outcomes of their decisions could be affected by potential changes in both climate and land use. On an interactive, user-friendly website, CARA has amassed data on climate (historical records and future projections for seven global climate models), land cover, and socioeconomic and environmental variables, along with tools to help decisionmakers tailor the data for their own decision types and locations. CARA Advisory Council stakeholders help identify what information and tools stakeholders would find most useful and how to present these: they also provide in-depth feedback for subregion case studies. General lessons include: (1) decisionmakers want detailed local projections for periods short enough to account for extreme events, in contrast to the broader spatial and temporal observations and projections that are available or consistent at a regional level; (2) stakeholders will not use such a website unless it is visually appealing and easy to find the information they want; (3) some stakeholders need background while others want to go immediately to data, and some want maps while others want text or tables. This article also compares what has been learned across case studies of Cape May County, New Jersey, Cape Cod, Massachusetts, and Hampton Roads, Virginia, relating specifically to sea-level rise. Lessons include: (1) groups can be affected differently by physical dangers compared with economic dangers; (2) decisions will differ according to decision makers' preferences about waiting and risk tolerance; (3) future scenarios and maps can help assess the impacts of dangers to emergency evacuation routes, homes, and infrastructure, and the natural environment; (4) residents' and decisionmakers' perceptions are affected by information about potential local impacts from global climate change. CR *NAST, 2000, CLIM CHANG IMP US PO *NAT RES COUNC, 1989, IMPR RISK COMM *NOAA, 2004, LIDAR DAT *NPA DAT SERV INC, 1998, REG EC PROJ SER NPA *PRES C COMM RISK, 1997, FRAM ENV HLTH RISK M *ROYAL SOC, 2002, ROYAL SOC M HELD DEC BAWDEN RJ, 1984, AGR SYST, V13, P205 BEIERLE TC, 2002, DEMOCRACY PRACTICE P BLAIKIE PM, 1994, RISK NATURAL HAZARDS, V1, P1 BOON J, 2005, SEA COAST SEA LEVEL BORD RJ, 1998, CLIMATE RES, V11, P75 BORD RJ, 2000, PUBLIC UNDERST SCI, V9, P205 BOSTROM A, 1994, RISK ANAL, V14, P959 BYERS W, 2000, J RURAL STUD, V16, P459 CALAVITA N, 1994, J AM PLANN ASSOC, V60, P483 CUTTER SL, 2000, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V90, P713 DANIELS T, 1998, CITY COUNTRY COLLIDE FISHER A, 1991, EV EFF RISK COMM WOR FISHER A, 1991, RISK ANAL, V11, P173 FISHER A, 2000, CLIM CHANG COMM 2000 FISHER A, 2000, PREPARING CHANGING C GHOSH K, 2004, AM AGR EC ASS AAEA A GILAU A, 2004, CARA ADV COUNC WORKS KASEMIR B, 2003, PUBLIC PARTICIPATION KATES RW, 2003, ENVIRONMENT, V45, P12 KIPP MJ, 2005, THESIS PENN STATE U LIVERMAN DM, 1990, UNDERSTANDING GLOBAL, V1, P27 LORENZONI I, 2004, INT WORKSH PERSP DAN MORGAN MG, 2002, RISK COMMUNICATION M, P351 MORROW BH, 1999, DISASTERS, V23, P1 MOSER SC, 2004, ENVIRONMENT, V46, P33 NAKICENOVIC N, 2000, INTERGOVERNMENTAL PA OCONNOR RE, 1998, RISK ANAL, V18, P547 OCONNOR RE, 1998, RISK DECISION POLICY, V3, P145 OCONNOR RE, 1999, RISK ANAL, V19, P461 OCONNOR RE, 2000, CLIMATE RES, V14, P255 READ D, 1994, RISK ANAL, V14, P971 REYNOLDS J, 1996, GUIDE INFORMATION MA RYGEL L, 2004, THESIS PENN STATE U SCHULTZ M, 2004, INFORMS C DENV 24 27 SPELLERBERG A, 2001, 200114 STAT NZ STEDMAN RC, 2006, IN PRESS SOC NATURAL WU SY, 2002, CLIMATE RES, V22, P255 NR 43 TC 0 J9 RISK ANAL BP 1495 EP 1509 PY 2005 PD DEC VL 25 IS 6 GA 996YF UT ISI:000234211500012 ER PT J AU ElRaey, M TI Vulnerability assessment of the coastal zone of the Nile delta of Egypt, to the impacts of sea level rise SO OCEAN & COASTAL MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article C1 Univ Alexandria, Inst Grad Studies & Res, Alexandria, Egypt. RP ElRaey, M, Univ Alexandria, Inst Grad Studies & Res, Alexandria, Egypt. AB A survey of the derailed quantitative assessment of the vulnerability of the Nile delta coast of Egypt to the impacts of sea level vise, is presented. GIS and remote-sensing techniques are used together with ground-based surveys to assess vulnerability of the most important economic and historic centers along the coast, the cities of Alexandria, Rosetta and Port-Said. Results indicate that, in these cities alone, over 2 million people will have to abandon their homes, 214000 jobs and over $35.0 billion in land value, property, and tourism income may also be lost due to a SLR of 50 cm. The loss of the world famous historic, cultural and archeological sites is unaccountable. The vulnerability of other low land in Egypt outside these cities remains to be assessed. Development of institutional capabilities for ICZM and upgrading awareness are highly recommended for adaptation in the long run. Periodic nourishment of Alexandria and Rosetta beaches, detached break waters for Polt-Said, and sand dune fixation are the recommended no regrets management measures. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *COAST RES I, DELFT HYDR RES AN VU BROADUS J, EFFECT CHANGES STRAT BRUUN P, 1962, J WATERWAYS HARBORS, V88, P117 ELRAEY M, CHANGING CLIMATE COA, V2, P225 ELRAEY M, INT J REMOTE SENSING ELRAEY M, 1988, ENVIRON MONIT ASSESS, P1 ELRAEY M, 1995, J COASTAL RES, V14, P190 ELRAEY M, 1997, J ENV MONITORING ASS, V47, P59 ELSAYED MK, 1988, RAPP COMM INT MER ME, V31 FRIHY OE, 1992, J INT UNION GEODESY, V11, P81 SESTINI G, 1989, 214 WG UNEPOCA STRZEPEK KM, 1995, CLIMATE CHANGES NR 12 TC 1 J9 OCEAN COAST MANAGE BP 29 EP 40 PY 1997 VL 37 IS 1 GA ZM705 UT ISI:000073567600004 ER PT J AU BUTZER, KW TI HUMAN RESPONSE TO ENVIRONMENTAL-CHANGE IN THE PERSPECTIVE OF FUTURE, GLOBAL CLIMATE SO QUATERNARY RESEARCH LA English DT Article C1 UNIV CHICAGO,DEPT GEOG,CHICAGO,IL 60637. RP BUTZER, KW, UNIV CHICAGO,DEPT ANTHROPOL,CHICAGO,IL 60637. CR 1942, 16TH CENSUS US 1940, V1 1980, PUBLICATION US DEP E, V9 1982, CARBON DIOXIDE CLIMA ALMAGOR U, 1972, ASIAN AFRICAN STUDIE, V8, P185 ALMAGOR U, 1974, SEPT AFR STUD ASS C BARK LD, 1978, N AM DROUGHTS, P9 BOWDEN MJ, 1981, CLIMATE HIST, P479 BUCKLEY W, 1968, MODERN SYSTEMS RES B, P490 BUTZER KW, 1980, AM SCI, V68, P517 BUTZER KW, 1971, 136 U CHIC DEP GEOGR, P1 BUTZER KW, 1976, EARLY HYDRAULIC CIVI BUTZER KW, 1980, PHYSICAL GEOGRAPHY, V1, P4 BUTZER KW, 1980, PROF GEOGR, V32, P269 BUTZER KW, 1982, ARCHAEOLOGY HUMAN EC BUTZER KW, 1982, GEOGRAPHISCHE Z, V70, P261 BUTZER KW, 1983, HUNTERS FARMERS CARR CJ, 1977, 180 U CHIC DEP GEOGR, P1 CLARK WC, 1982, CARBON DIOXIDE REV DALBY D, 1977, DROUGHT AFRICA, V2 DANDO WA, 1980, GEOGRAPHY FAMINE DEVRIES J, 1980, J INTERDISCIPLINARY, V10, P599 FAURE H, 1981, NATURE, V291, P475 FAURE H, 1981, NATURE, V293, P414 FRANKE RW, 1980, SEEDS FAMINE ECOLOGI GLANTZ MH, 1976, POLITICS NATURAL DIS HANSEN J, 1981, SCIENCE, V213, P957 HUSSEIN AM, 1976, 2 INT AFR I AFR ENV INGRAM MJ, 1981, CLIMATE HIST STUDIES, P3 KATES RW, 1981, 2 CLARK U CTR TECHN KELLOGG WW, 1978, CLIMATIC CHANGE, P205 KELLOGG WW, 1981, CLIMATE CHANGE SOC C KIRCH PV, 1980, ADVANCES ARCHAEOL ME, V3, P101 KUTZBACH JE, 1982, J ATMOS SCI, V39, P1177 LAWSON MP, 1981, GREAT PLAINS PERSPEC MACDONALD GJ, 1982, LONG TERM IMPACTS IN MANABE S, 1981, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V3, P347 MIEWALD RD, 1978, N AM DROUGHTS, P79 OBARNEY G, 1982, GLOBAL 2000 REPORT P OLSON JS, 1978, DEP ENERGY ENV SCI D, V1050 PITTOCK AB, 1981, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V3, P23 QUINN ML, 1982, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V4, P273 SAARINEN TF, 1966, 106 U CHIC DEP GEOGR, P1 SCHNEIDER SH, 1976, GENESIS STRATEGY CLI SIEGENTHALER U, 1978, SCIENCE, V199, P388 THOMPSON SL, 1982, SCIENCE, V217, P1031 TORNAY S, 1979, SENRI ETHNOLOGICAL S, V3, P97 WARRICK RA, 1981, GREAT PLAINS PERSPEC, P111 WEBSTER JB, 1979, CHRONOLOGY MIGRATION, P1 NR 48 TC 6 J9 QUATERNARY RES BP 279 EP 292 PY 1983 VL 19 IS 3 GA QS185 UT ISI:A1983QS18500001 ER PT J AU Morlot, JC Smith, JB Agrawala, S Franck, T TI Long-term goals and post-2012 commitments: where do we go from here with climate policy? SO CLIMATE POLICY LA English DT Article C1 Univ Coll London, Dept Geog, Environm Sci & Soc Res Programme, London WC1E 6BT, England. Stratus Consulting, Boulder, CO USA. OECD, Environm Directorate, Climate Change Programme, Paris, France. MIT, Joint Program Sci & Policy Global Change, Cambridge, MA 02139 USA. RP Morlot, JC, Univ Coll London, Dept Geog, Environm Sci & Soc Res Programme, London WC1E 6BT, England. AB With entry into force of the Kyoto Protocol in 2005, climate change negotiators are turning their attention to the question, 'Where do we go from here?. A key component of answering this question is in understanding the implications for society of alternative long-term goals for greenhouse gas concentrations. One challenge in ongoing negotiations is whether and how to deal with meanings of 'dangerous interference' as outlined in Article 2 of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. This study addresses Article 2 by suggesting the use of long-term goals to guide decisions about the stringency and timing of future climate change commitments. Focusing on mitigation policy benefits and, in particular, on avoiding long-term climate impacts, a number of management approaches and their implications are highlighted. After discussing some challenges of using scientific knowledge to monitor and manage progress, we look at what we can learn from current climate change global impact literature. Solid benchmark indicators appear to be available from global mean temperature change, ecosystems and coastal zone impacts information. We conclude by arguing for global goal-setting based on climate change effects and the use of indicators in these areas as part of post-2012 climate change negotiations. Aggregate global impacts suggest that 3-4 degrees C of global mean temperature increase by 2100 (compared to a reference period of 1990) may be a threshold beyond which all known sector impacts are negative and rising with increasing levels of warming. However, marginal benefits may accrue at lower levels of mean change. Thus, a prudent policy might aim for significantly lower levels and slower rates of global warming. 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RP Planton, S, Meteo France, Ctr Natl Rech Meteorol, Toulouse, France. AB The studies of the hydrological impacts of climate change due to the perturbation of the chemical composition of the atmosphere, exhibit a great diversity of methods. This diversity is a consequence of the difficulty of the climate scenario construction at the scale of hydrological models and of the difficulty in the representation of the statistical characteristics of extreme events. Beyond the influence of the methodologies, the results of hydrological impact studies remain conditioned by the quality of the used climate scenarios, in particular precipitation change in mean and variability. The issue of uncertainties integration in the whole impact assessment process is a new one that the scientific community need to address, to answer to the questioning of the stakeholder community. CR BARDOSSY A, 2000, ECLAT WORKSH 3 DEB N BOURAOUI F, 1999, CLIM DYNAM, V15, P153 CHRISTENSEN JH, 2000, ECLAT WORKSH 4 TOUL CROSSLEY JF, 2000, CLIM DYNAM, V16, P949 DEQUE M, LECT NOTES EARTH SCI, V74, P58 DOUVILLE H, 2001, SENSITIVITY GLOBAL R FRIEDLINGSTEIN P, 2001, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V28, P1543 GIBELIN AL, 2001, 79 CTR GROUP MET GRA HOUGHTON JT, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 HULME M, 1999, ECLAT WORKSH 1 HELS KATZ RW, 1999, ECLAT WORKSH 1 HELS MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 METZ B, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 NOILHAN J, 2000, ECLAT WORKSH 4 TOUL ZWIERS FW, 1998, J CLIMATE, V11, P2200 NR 15 TC 0 J9 HOUILLE BLANCHE BP 73 EP 77 PY 2002 IS 8 GA 650TN UT ISI:000181279600013 ER PT J AU Erda, L TI Agricultural vulnerability and adaptation to global, warming in China SO WATER AIR AND SOIL POLLUTION LA English DT Article RP Erda, L, CHINESE ACAD AGR SCI,AGROMETEOROL INST,BEIJING 100081,PEOPLES R CHINA. AB This paper discusses the vulnerability and adaptation of the agricultural sector of China to global warming. Based on a summarization of Chinese agricultural and general circulation model trends, adverse impacts on China's agriculture caused by a warming and drying climate were identified. Because of limited irrigation potential the sustainable development of Chinese agriculture will be difficult. Six sensitive agricultural areas located on the edges of different agroecological zones, and seven provinces with high vulnerability to the impacts on agriculture, were identified On the basis of an estimation of the potential supply of agricultural products and demand for food, the annual incremental costs for adaptation to climate change would be US$0.8-3.48 billion; without adaptation, the annual agricultural loss due to global warming would be US$1.37-79.98 billion from 2000 to 2050. Adaptive measures discussed include intensive management and the possibility of a tripartite structure of planting that would entail coordinated development of grain crops, feed crops, and cash crops. CR 1991, CHINESE AGR YB 1990 *ADB, 1993, TA1069 ADB *IRRI, 1993, BAS MOD IRR LOW LAND CUBASCH U, 1992, CLIM DYNAM, V8, P55 DUXBURY JM, 1993, ASA SPEC PUBL, V55, P1 ERDA L, 1994, RURAL ECOENVIRONMENT, V10, P1 JONES CA, 1986, SIMULATION MAIZE GRO LIANGSHU L, 1991, PRODUCTIVE STRUCTURE LIANGSHU L, 1991, STUDIES MEDIUM LONG MITCHELL JFB, 1990, CLIMATE CHANGE IPCC OJIMA DS, 1993, WATER AIR SOIL POLL, V70, P643 RITCHIE JJ, 1985, WHEAT GROWTH MODELIN SMIT B, 1993, 19 U GUELPH TAO Z, 1993, CLIMATE BIOSPHERE IN NR 14 TC 1 J9 WATER AIR SOIL POLLUT BP 63 EP 73 PY 1996 PD SEP VL 92 IS 1-2 GA VM538 UT ISI:A1996VM53800008 ER PT J AU Maracchi, G Sirotenko, O Bindi, M TI Impacts of present and future climate variability on agriculture and forestry in the temperate regions: Europe SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 CNR, IBIMET, I-51044 Florence, Italy. ARRIAM, Obninsk 249020, Russia. UNIFI, DISAT, I-51044 Florence, Italy. RP Maracchi, G, CNR, IBIMET, Piazzale Pascine 18, I-51044 Florence, Italy. AB Agriculture and forestry will be particularly sensitive to changes in mean climate and climate variability in the northern and southern regions of Europe. Agriculture may be positively affected by climate change in the northern areas through the introduction of new crop species and varieties, higher crop production and expansion of suitable areas for crop cultivation. The disadvantages may be determined by an increase in need for plant protection, risk of nutrient leaching and accelerated breakdown of soil organic matter. In the southern areas the benefits of the projected climate change will be limited, while the disadvantages will be predominant. The increased water use efficiency caused by increasing CO2 will compensate for some of the negative effects of increasing water limitation and extreme weather events, but lower harvestable yields, higher yield variability and reduction in suitable areas of traditional crops are expected for these areas. Forestry in the Mediterranean region may be mainly affected by increases in drought and forest fires. In northern Europe, the increased precipitation is expected to be large enough to compensate for the increased evapotranspiration. On the other hand, however, increased precipitation, cloudiness and rain days and the reduced duration of snow cover and soil frost may negatively affect forest work and timber logging determining lower profitability of forest production and a decrease in recreational possibilities. Adaptation management strategies should be introduced, as effective tools, to reduce the negative impacts of climate change on agricultural and forestry sectors. CR *ECSN, 1995, CLIM EUR REC VAR PRE, P72 *EEA, 1998, EUR ENV 2 ASS, P293 *FAOSTAT, 2001, ONL MULT DAT ALEXANDROV VA, 1997, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V36, P135 BENISTON M, 1998, REGIONAL IMPACTS CLI, P289 BERNINGER R, 1997, FUNCT ECOL, V11, P3342 BINDI M, 1992, J AGR MEDITER, V22, P41 BINDI M, 1996, CLIMATE RES, V7, P213 BINDI M, 2000, CLIMATE CHANGE CLIMA, P191 BRUNETTI M, 2000, THEOR APPL CLIMATOL, V65, P165 BUGMANN H, 1997, CLIM RES, V8, P3544 CANNELL MGR, 1985, CROP PHYSL FOREST TR, P153 CARTER TR, 1996, AGR FOOD SCI FINLAND, V3, P329 CARTER TR, 1998, AGR FOOD SCI FINLAND, V7, P161 DAI A, 1997, J CLIMATE, V10, P2943 DAVIES A, 1997, ANN APPL BIOL, V130, P167 DEVRIES FWT, 1995, ECOREGIONAL APPROACH EVANS LG, 1995, CLIMATE CHANGE AGR E, P220 FARRAR JF, 1996, J EXP BOT, V47, P1273 FREI C, 1998, INT J CLIMATOL, V18, P873 FUQUAY JW, 1981, J ANIM SCI, V52, P164 GAVILAN R, 1997, J VEG SCI, V8, P377 GRUZA G, 1999, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V42, P219 HARRISON PA, 1995, CLIMATE CHANGE AGR E HARRISON PA, 1995, CLIMATE CHANGE AGR, P330 HARRISON PA, 2000, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V101, P167 HARRISON PA, 2000, CLIMATE CHANGE CLIMA, P3 HARRISON PA, 2000, CLIMATE CHANGE CLIMA, P367 HULME M, 1998, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V25, P3379 HULME M, 2000, ASSESSMENT POTENTIAL, P47 JONES PD, 1995, INT J CLIMATOL, V15, P943 KELLOMAKI S, 1993, FOREST ECOL MANAG, V59, P237 KELLOMAKI S, 1996, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V32, P423 KELLOMAKI S, 2000, ASSESSMENT POTENTIAL, P137 KENNY GJ, 1993, EUR J AGRON, V2, P325 KIRSCHBAUM MUF, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, P95 KOMOR E, 1996, J EXP BOT, V47, P1155 KOSTROWICKI J, 1991, LAND USE CHANGES EUR, P21 KRAUCHI N, 1995, ECOL MODEL, V83, P219 LONG SP, 1988, S SOC EXP BIOL, V42 MAUGERI M, 1998, THEOR APPL CLIMATOL, V61, P191 MELA TJN, 1996, AGR FOOD SCI FINLAND, V3, P229 MENZEL A, 1999, NATURE, V397, P659 NICHOLLS N, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, V572, P133 NONHEBEL S, 1996, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V34, P73 OLESEN JE, 1993, EUROPEAN J AGRONOMY, V2, P313 OLESEN JE, 2000, CLIMATE RES, V15, P221 ONATE JJ, 1996, INT J CLIMATOL, V16, P805 OSBORN TJ, 2000, INT J CLIMATOL, V14, P180 PALUTIKOF S, 2000, ASSESSMENT POTENTIAL, P137 PARRY ML, 1988, IMPACT CLIMATIC VARI PARRY ML, 2000, ASSESSMENT POTENTIAL, P1 PEARSON S, 1997, J HORTIC SCI, V72, P503 PEIRIS DR, 1996, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V79, P271 REILLY JM, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, P429 SIROTENKO OD, 1997, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V36, P217 SYKES MT, 1996, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V34, P161 TALKKARI A, 1996, FOREST ECOL MANAG, V83, P217 TOPP CFE, 1996, AGR SYST, V52, P243 TUBIELLO FN, 2000, EUR J AGRON, V13, P179 TUOMENVIRTA H, 1998, 1398 DNMI, P37 WHEELER TR, 1996, ASPECTS APPL BIOL, V45, P49 WOLF J, 1995, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V29, P299 WOLF J, 2000, CLIMATE CHANGE CLIMA, P217 WOLF J, 2000, CLIMATE CHANGE CLIMA, P239 NR 65 TC 3 J9 CLIMATIC CHANGE BP 117 EP 135 PY 2005 PD MAY VL 70 IS 1-2 GA 942EG UT ISI:000230265100006 ER PT J AU Connell, RK Willows, R Harman, J Merrett, S TI A framework for climate risk management applied to a UK waver resource problem SO WATER AND ENVIRONMENT JOURNAL LA English DT Article C1 Univ Oxford, Environm Change Inst, UK Climate Impacts Programme, Oxford, England. AB Climate risk management is a new and evolving area and many decisions are likely to be affected by climate risks over the long-term. This paper presents a decision-making framework designed for managing climate alongside non-climate risk factors. The framework describes a process that should help identify and manage these risks. It can be used to help decision-makers answer questions. about whether adaptation is required, and, if so, which measures should be implemented. Adaptive management is recommended as a useful approach for dealing with climate and other uncertainties. This paper describes an application of the framework to a water resources case study Feedback from training workshops based on four different case studies suggests the framework provides at minimum a useful (post-hoc) decision analysis fool. Potential users, who include planners, consultants and policy-makers have been largely positive about the prospective utility of the framework. CR *CAB OFF STRAT UN, 2002, RISK IMPR GOV CAP HA *INT PAN CLIM CHAN, 2001, CLIM CHANG 2001 SCI *UKCIP, 2001, SOC EC SCEN CLIM CHA GORDON C, 2000, CLIM DYNAM, V16, P147 HARREMORES P, 2003, INTEGRATED ASSESSMEN, V4, P18 HULME M, 2002, CLIMATE CHANGE SCENA JENKINS GJ, 2003, 44 HADL CTR MERRETT S, 2004, STUDIES WATER RESOUR MORGAN MG, 1990, UNCERTAINTY GUIDE DE WILBY RL, 2002, ENVIRON MODELL SOFTW, V17, P145 WILLOWS RI, CLIMATE ADAPTATIONS NR 11 TC 0 J9 WATER ENVIRON J BP 352 EP 360 PY 2005 PD DEC VL 19 IS 4 GA 998FX UT ISI:000234305100009 ER PT J AU WOO, MK LEWKOWICZ, AG ROUSE, WR TI RESPONSE OF THE CANADIAN PERMAFROST ENVIRONMENT TO CLIMATIC-CHANGE SO PHYSICAL GEOGRAPHY LA English DT Review RP WOO, MK, MCMASTER UNIV,DEPT GEOG,HAMILTON L8S 4K1,ONTARIO,CANADA. AB Human-induced climatic warming will have major impacts on permafrost, which presently underlies half of Canada's land mass. The adaptation of the northern environment and its physical processes to the altered climate may be contemporaneous or may lag behind climatic change. The extent of permafrost will diminish, accompanied by modifications of the land surface through thermokarst or mass wasting. Streamflow regimes, sediment transport, coastal flooding and erosion will be affected. The magnitude of most components of the water balance will be altered. More research is needed to understand how the permafrost environment behaves during the transient phase, and the problem of permafrost adaptation should be addressed holistically. NR 0 TC 43 J9 PHYS GEOGR BP 287 EP 317 PY 1992 PD OCT-DEC VL 13 IS 4 GA KJ493 UT ISI:A1992KJ49300001 ER PT J AU Dambacher, JM Brewer, DT Dennis, DM Macintyre, M Foale, S TI Qualitative modelling of gold mine impacts on Lihir Island's socioeconomic system and reef-edge fish community SO ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY LA English DT Article C1 CSIRO, Marine & Atmospher Res, Hobart, Tas 7001, Australia. CSIRO, Marine & Atmospher Res, Cleveland, Qld 4163, Australia. Univ Melbourne, Ctr Hlth & Soc, Melbourne, Vic 3010, Australia. Australian Natl Univ, Res Sch Pacific & Asian Studies, Canberra, ACT 0200, Australia. RP Dambacher, JM, CSIRO, Marine & Atmospher Res, GPO Box 1538, Hobart, Tas 7001, Australia. AB Inhabitants of Lihir Island, Papua New Guinea, have traditionally relied on reef fishing and rotational farming of slash-burn forest plots for a subsistence diet. However, a new gold mine has introduced a cash economy to the island's socioeconomic system and impacted the fringing coral reef through sedimentation from the near-shore dumping of mine wastes. Studies of the Lihirian people have documented changes in population size, local customs, health, education, and land use; studies of the reef have documented impacts to fish populations in mine affected sites. Indirect effects from these impacts are complex and indecipherable when viewed only from isolated studies. Here, we use qualitative modelling to synthesize the social and biological research programs in order to understand the interaction of the human and ecological systems. Initial modelling results appear to be consistent with differences in fish and macroalgae populations in sites with and without coral degradation due to sedimentation. A greater cash flow from mine expansion is predicted to increase the human population, the intensity of the artisanal fishery, and the rate of sewage production and land clearing. Modelling results are being used to guide ongoing research projects, such as monitoring fish populations and artisanal catch and patterns and intensity of land clearing. CR 2005, LIHIR GOLD MINE ENV, B, P149 BENAROCH M, 1995, DECIS SUPPORT SYST, V15, P115 BREDEWEG B, 2003, ARTIF INTELL, V24, P77 BREWER D, 2004, ASSESSMENT MINE IMPA, P463 CHABANET P, 1997, CORAL REEFS, V16, P93 DAMBACHER JM, 2002, ECOLOGY, V83, P1372 DAMBACHER JM, 2003, AM NAT, V161, P876 DAMBACHER JM, 2003, ECOL MODEL, V161, P79 EISENACK K, 2006, J ECON DYN CONTROL, V30, P2613 FABRICIUS KE, 2000, ESTUAR COAST SHELF S, V50, P115 FARRELL KN, 2003, 53 ANN C POL STUD AS, P42 FROESE R, FISHBASE JOSTAD PM, 1996, SOC NATUR RESOUR, V9, P565 KUIPERS B, 1994, QUALITATIVE REASONIN, P418 LEONTIEF W, 1986, INPUT OUTPUT EC, P436 LEVINS R, 1966, AM SCI, V54, P421 LEVINS R, 1974, ANN NY ACAD SCI, V231, P123 LEVINS R, 1975, ECOLOGY EVOLUTION CO, P16 LEVINS R, 1979, AM NAT, V114, P765 LEVINS R, 1998, ECOSYST HEALTH, P178 LYDAY TQ, 2001, US GEOLOGICAL SURVEY, P1 MACINTYRE M, 2003, SOCIAL EC IMPACT STU, P100 MACINTYRE M, 2004, OCEANIA, V74, P231 MCCOOK LJ, 1999, CORAL REEFS, V18, P357 MCCOOK LJ, 2001, CORAL REEFS, V19, P400 MYERS N, 1993, BIOSCIENCE, V43, P302 PUCCIA CJ, 1985, QUALITATIVE MODELING, P259 QUIRK JP, 1965, REV ECON STAT, V32, P311 RAPPAPORT RA, 1967, PIGS ANCESTORS RITUA, V1, P1 SAMUELSON PA, 1983, FDN EC ANAL, V80, P604 UMAR MJ, 1998, CORAL REEFS, V17, P169 YODZIS P, 1995, FOOD WEBS INTEGRATIO, P195 YOUNG MW, 1971, FIGHTING FOOD LEADER, P282 NR 33 TC 0 J9 ENVIRON SCI TECHNOL BP 555 EP 562 PY 2007 PD JAN 15 VL 41 IS 2 GA 124RS UT ISI:000243388200038 ER PT J AU Smit, B McNabb, D Smithers, J TI Agricultural adaptation to climatic variation SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 CARLETON UNIV,IMPACT ASSESSMENT CTR,OTTAWA,ON K1S 5B6,CANADA. UNIV GUELPH,FAC ENVIRONM SCI,GUELPH,ON N1G 2W1,CANADA. RP Smit, B, UNIV GUELPH,DEPT GEOG,GUELPH,ON N1G 2W1,CANADA. AB Assumptions underlying impact assessments of climatic change for agriculture are explored conceptually and empirically. Variability in climatic conditions, the relevance of human decisionmaking, and the role of non-climatic forces are reviewed and captured in a model of agricultural adaptation to climate. An empirical analysis of farmers' decisions in light of variations in climate and other forces is based on a survey of 120 farm operators in southwestern Ontario. Many farmers were affected by variable climatic conditions over a six-year-period, and some undertook strategic adaptations in their farm operations. Frequency of dry years was the key climatic stimulus to farming adaptations. However, only 20 percent of farmers were sufficiently influenced by climatic conditions to respond with conscious changes in their farm operations. CR *UNEP, 1993, UN FRAM CONV CLIM CH ARTHUR LM, 1992, PRAIRIE FORUM, V17, P97 BLASING TJ, 1984, PROGR BIOMETEOROL, V3, P311 BORCHERT JR, 1971, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V61, P1 BRKLACICH M, 1992, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V20, P1 BURTON I, 1978, ENV HAZARD, V1, P1 BUTZER KW, 1980, PROF GEOGR, V32, P269 CARTER TR, 1991, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V1, P291 CARTER TR, 1994, IPCC TECHNICAL GUIDE CHANGNON S, 1989, 8902 MIDW CLIM CTR, P6 DARWIN RF, 1995, 703 USDA DEVRIES J, 1985, CLIMATE IMPACT ASSES, P273 DOWNING TE, 1992, CLIMATE CHANGE VULNE EASTERLING WE, 1992, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V59, P53 EASTERLING WE, 1992, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V59, P75 EASTERLING WE, 1993, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V24, P23 FLORA CB, 1992, J SUSTAIN AGR, V2, P37 GLANTZ MH, 1991, ENVIRONMENT, V33, P10 GREEN GP, 1987, J RURAL STUD, V3, P151 HOUGHTON JT, 1990, CLIMATE CHANGE IPCC IKERD JE, 1991, NE J AGR RESOURCE EC, V20, P109 ILBERY BW, 1985, AGR GEOGRAPHY SOCIAL KAISER HM, 1993, AGR DIMENSIONS GLOBA KANE SM, 1992, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V21, P17 KATES RW, 1985, CLIMATE IMPACT ASSES, P3 KLEIN KK, 1989, AGR SYST, V30, P117 KUNREUTHER H, 1986, DECISION MAKING HAZA, V2, P153 LIVERMAN DM, 1986, J CLIMATOL, V6, P355 LIVERMAN DM, 1987, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V11, P267 LOCKERETZ W, 1981, GREAT PLAINS PERSPEC, P11 MCNABB DB, 1992, THESIS U GUELPH GUEL MEARNS LW, 1994, AMS 5 S GLOB CHANG S NEWMAN JE, 1980, BIOMETEOROLOGY, V7, P128 PALM R, 1990, NATL HAZARDS INTEGRA PARRY ML, 1985, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V7, P95 PARRY ML, 1988, IMPACTS CLIMATE VARI, V1 REILLY JM, 1994, NATURE, V367, P118 RIEBSAME WE, 1988, ASSESSING SOCIAL IMP RIEBSAME WE, 1990, EARTH TRANSFORMED HU ROSENBERG NJ, 1986, GREAT PLAINS Q, V6, P202 ROSENBERG NJ, 1993, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V24, P7 ROSENZWEIG C, 1985, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V7, P367 ROSENZWEIG C, 1994, NATURE, V367, P133 SAARINEN TF, 1966, 106 U CHIC DEP GEOGR SHESKIN IM, 1985, SURVEY RES GEOGRAPHE SMIT B, 1989, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V14, P153 SMIT B, 1991, CHANGING CLIMATE REL SMIT B, 1992, LAND DEGRAD REHABIL, V3, P1 SMIT B, 1993, 19 U GUELPH DEP GEOG SMIT B, 1993, CANADIAN J REGIONAL, V16, P499 SMIT B, 1994, IMPROVING RESPONSES SMITHERS J, 1994, THESIS U GUELPH GUEL TIMMERMAN P, 1989, 1 US CAN S IMP CLIM TURNER BL, 1987, COMP FARMING SYSTEMS WARRICK RA, 1980, CLIMATIC CONSTRAINTS, P93 WARRICK RA, 1984, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V6, P5 WARRICK RA, 1986, GREENHOUSE EFFECT CL, P393 WHEATON EE, 1990, SRC E23304E90 SASK R WILLIAMS GDV, 1988, IMPACTS CLIMATIC VAR, V1 YOSHINO MM, 1988, IMPACT CLIMATIC VARI, V1, P788 NR 60 TC 27 J9 CLIMATIC CHANGE BP 7 EP 29 PY 1996 PD MAY VL 33 IS 1 GA UT809 UT ISI:A1996UT80900002 ER PT J AU Nakamura, T TI Ecosystem-based River Basin Management: its approach and policy-level application SO HYDROLOGICAL PROCESSES LA English DT Article C1 UNEP, Div GEF Coordinat, Nairobi, Kenya. RP Nakamura, T, UNEP, Div GEF Coordinat, POB 30552, Nairobi, Kenya. AB Integrated Water Resources Management is an approach aimed at achieving sustainable development with a focus on water resources. This management concept is characterized by its catchment approach, inter-sectoral and interdisciplinary approach and multiple management objectives. There is an effort to widen the management scope to include multiple resources and environmental considerations in the river basin management schemes. In order to achieve river basin management objectives and multiple global environmental benefits, an ecosystem approach to river basin management is promoted. The Ecosystem-based River Basin Management aims to maximize and optimize the total value of the ecosystem functions relevant to classified ecosystems within a river basin by conserving and even enhancing these functions for the next generations. A procedure to incorporate such ecosystem functions into policy framework is presented in this paper. Based on this policy framework of the Ecosystem-based River Basin Management, a case study is introduced to apply the concept to the Yangtze River basin. According to the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) assessment report, this basin suffers from frequent floods of large magnitudes, which are due to the degradation of ecosystem functions in the basin. In this case, the government of the People's Republic of China introduced Ecosystem Function Conservation Areas to conserve ecosystem functions related to flood events and magnitude, such as soil conservation, agricultural practices and forestry, while producing economic benefits for the local population. Copyright (C) 2003 John Wiley Sons, Ltd. CR MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 *IUCN, 2000, VISION WATER NATURE *SEPA STAT ENV PRO, 2002, INC REP NAT CONS FLO *SOPAC, 1999, ENV VULN IND EVI SUM *UN, 1993, UN C ENV DEV RIO DEJ, V1 *UNDP UNZP WB, 2000, WORLD RES 2000 2001 *UNEP CIRAD CTR IN, 2001, 1 REG WORKSH INT COA *UNEP DHI SGPRE SE, 2002, VER GEST INT BAS VER *UNEP IUCN, 2001, MT11009971 *UNEP MAP PAP, 1999, CONC FRAM PLANN GUID *UNEP MAP PAP, 2000, ENV SOC PROF RIV CET *UNEP WETL INT, 1997, WETL INT RIV BAS MAN *UNEP, 1999, REPORT SCOPING MISSI *UNEP, 2000, GLOB ENV OUTL 2000 *WCD, 2000, DAMS DEV NEW FRAM DE *WCED, 1987, COMM FUT *WMO, 1997, COMPR ASS FRESHW RES *WORLD EC FOR, 2000, PIL ENV SUST IND IN ADAMUS PR, 1987, Y87 US ARM CORPS ENG DAVID L, 1986, RESOUR POLICY, V12, P307 DAVID LJ, 1988, WATER RESOURCES DEV, V4, P103 GLEICK PH, 2000, REPORT WATER SECTOR JAMES RF, 1991, 29 PAPHAWB AS WETL B MALTBY E, 1994, GLOBAL WETLANDS OLD, P637 NAKAMURA T, 2001, P INT SEM INT WAT MA, P161 NAKAMURA T, 2002, MITIGATION MANAGEMEN, P66 PATKINS J, 2000, 40 COMM SECR RITCHIE KA, 1997, WETLANDS INTEGRATED, P279 SHIKOLOMANOV IA, 1993, PACIFIC I STUDIES DE ZALEWSKI M, 2000, ECOL ENG, V16, P1 NR 30 TC 0 J9 HYDROL PROCESS BP 2711 EP 2725 PY 2003 PD OCT 15 VL 17 IS 14 GA 730TQ UT ISI:000185846600003 ER PT J AU Bettelheim, EC D'Origny, G TI Carbon sinks and emissions trading under the Kyoto Protocol: a legal analysis SO PHILOSOPHICAL TRANSACTIONS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY OF LONDON SERIES A-MATHEMATICAL PHYSICAL AND ENGINEERING SCIENCES LA English DT Article C1 Mishcon de Reya, London WC1R 4QD, England. Foley Hoag LLP, Washington, DC 20006 USA. RP Bettelheim, EC, Mishcon de Reya, Summit House,12 Red Lion Sq, London WC1R 4QD, England. AB The controversy over the issues of carbon sinks and emissions trading nearly aborted the Kyoto Protocol. The lengthy and intense debate over the roles that each are to play under the Protocol and the consequent political compromises has resulted in a complex set of provisions and an arcane nomenclature. The distinction drawn between the use of carbon sinks in developed countries under Joint Implementation and their use in developing countries under the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) is a particular source of intricacy. It is at least arguable that key elements of the compromises reached at COP-6 and COP-7 in this regard are inconsistent with the terms of the Protocol and are ultra vires the Convention on Climate Change. This is a source of both uncertainty and potential legal challenge. Not only do the recent decisions create needless complexity, they also clearly discriminate against developing nations. Among the recent political compromises is the creation of a third type of non-bankable but tradeable unit with respect to forest management, which is only available to Annex I countries. The result is an anomalous one in which a variety of otherwise equivalent carbon credits can be generated under three different regimes including one, the CDM, that is subject to an elaborate regulatory overlay that discriminates against carbon sequestration by developing countries. For example, complying developed countries can essentially self-certify sequestration projects. In contrast, projects in developing countries must obtain prior approval from a subsidiary body, the CDM Executive Board, mandated to require detailed information and impose substantive and procedural hurdles not required or imposed by its companion body, the Article 6 Supervisory Committee on Joint Implementation Projects. The parallel and related debate over the third 'flexibility' mechanism, emissions trading, compounded the complexity of an already asymmetric and bifurcated system. The new requirements devoted to 'environmental integrity' not only have raised the costs of compliance of developing country projects but also virtually ignore the fundamental principle of sustainable economic growth and development embodied in the Convention and related international agreements. The regulations for carbon sinks now being formulated at Conferences of the Parties will have a significant impact on their use worldwide. Of key importance, in addition to their successful integration of carbon sinks and emissions trading into other international treaties, is the development of practically achievable and objective standards and an efficient and transparent approval process consistent with the terms of the Convention and the Protocol. Most important of all is a rebalancing that restores the primacy of addressing climate change in the context of sustainable economic growth and development. CR *IPCC, 2000, LAND US LAND US CHAN *IPCC, 2001, CLIM CHANG 2001 MIT, V3 *UN INT LAW COMM, 1969, UN TER SER, V1155, P331 BONNIE R, 2002, PHILOS T ROY SOC A, V360, P1853 BROWN S, 2002, PHILOS T ROY SOC A, V360, P1593 HOUGHTON JT, 1990, SCI ASSESSMENT CLIMA HOUGHTON JT, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 LASOK D, 2001, LAW I EUROPEAN UNION, CH5 MACKAY L, 1995, HALSBURYS LAWS ENGLA MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 NIESTEN E, 2002, PHILOS T ROY SOC A, V360, P1875 PRANCE GT, 2002, PHILOS T ROY SOC A, V360, P1777 SAUNDERS LS, 2002, PHILOS T ROY SOC A, V360, P1763 WADE EC, 1993, CONSTITUTIOINAL ADM, P673 WERKSMAN J, 1998, RECIEL, V7, P147 NR 15 TC 2 J9 PHIL TRANS ROY SOC LONDON A BP 1827 EP 1851 PY 2002 PD AUG 15 VL 360 IS 1797 GA 582GB UT ISI:000177340500018 ER PT J AU Sathaye, J Shukla, PR Ravindranath, NH TI Climate change, sustainable development and India: Global and national concerns SO CURRENT SCIENCE LA English DT Article C1 Indian Inst Sci, Ctr Sustainable Technol, Bangalore 560012, Karnataka, India. Indian Inst Management, Ahmedabad 380015, Gujarat, India. Lawrence Berkeley Lab, Berkeley, CA USA. RP Ravindranath, NH, Indian Inst Sci, Ctr Sustainable Technol, Bangalore 560012, Karnataka, India. AB Climate change is one of the most important global environmental challenges, with implications for food production, water supply, health, energy, etc. Addressing climate change requires a good scientific understanding as well as coordinated action at national and global level. This paper addresses these challenges. Historically, the responsibility for greenhouse gas emissions' increase lies largely with the industrialized world, though the developing countries are likely to be the source of an increasing proportion of future emissions. The projected climate change under various scenarios is likely to have implications on food production, water supply, coastal settlements, forest ecosystems, health, energy security, etc. The adaptive capacity of communities likely to be impacted by climate change is low in developing countries. The efforts made by the UNFCCC and the Kyoto Protocol provisions are clearly inadequate to address the climate change challenge. The most effective way to address climate change is to adopt a sustainable development pathway by shifting to environmentally sustainable technologies and promotion of energy efficiency, renewable energy, forest conservation, reforestation, water conservation, etc. The issue of highest importance to developing countries is reducing the vulnerability of their natural and socio-economic systems to the projected climate change. India and other developing countries will face the challenge of promoting mitigation and adaptation strategies, bearing the cost of such an effort, and its implications for economic development. CR 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 *INT PAN CLIM CHAN, 2001, CLIM CHANG 2001 SYNT *MIN ENV FOR, 2004, IND IN NAT COMM UN F *PLANN COMM, 2002, 10 PLAN DOC *SP GUPT COMM REP, 2002, IND VIS 2020 *SUMM POL MAK TECH, 2001, CLIM CHANG 2001 SCI *UNDP, HUM DEV REP 2003 *UNEP, 1999, GLOB ENV OUTL *UNFCCC, 1992, UN ENV PROGR INF UN *US DOE EN INF ADM, 2005, INT EN OUTL 2005 *WCED, 1987, OUR COMM FUT *WORLD RES I, 2001, WORLD RES 2000 2001 BOLIN B, 2000, LAND USE LAND USE CH BRUCE JP, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995 CHANDLER W, 2002, CLIMATE CHANGE MITIG GALITSKY C, 2005, 3184 LBNL GARG A, 2003, CLIMATE CHANGE EC PO GOLDEMBERG J, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995 JAMES J, 2005, CURR SCI, V89, P464 JEPMA CJ, 1998, CLIMATE CHANGE POLIC KUMAR KR, 2005, CURR SCI, V90, P334 LOSKE R, 1996, SCOPE REPORT SETTING MILLS E, 2005, SCIENCE, V309, P1040 NAIR R, 2003, MITIGATION ADAPTATIO, V8, P53 NAKICENOVIC N, 2000, SPECIAL REPORT EMISS PIELKE RA, 1998, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V8, P159 RAVINDRANATH NH, 2002, CLIMATE CHANGE DEV C RAVINDRANATH NH, 2005, CURR SCI, V90, P354 SHUKLA PR, 2003, CLIMATE CHANGE INDIA SHUKLA PR, 2004, CLIMATE CHANGE ASSES WORRELL E, 2005, IN PRESS INT J GREEN NR 31 TC 1 J9 CURR SCI BP 314 EP 325 PY 2006 PD FEB 10 VL 90 IS 3 GA 014RM UT ISI:000235497600016 ER PT J AU KEMP, R SOETE, L TI THE GREENING OF TECHNOLOGICAL-PROGRESS - AN EVOLUTIONARY PERSPECTIVE SO FUTURES LA English DT Article C1 UNIV LIMBURG,FAC ECON & BUSINESS ADM,6200 MD MAASTRICHT,NETHERLANDS. RP KEMP, R, UNIV LIMBURG,MAASTRICHT ECON RES INST INNOVAT & TECHNOL,POB 616,6200 MD MAASTRICHT,NETHERLANDS. AB This article provides insight into technology-economy-ecology linkages which may help to define and accomplish environmentally sustainable development. An evolutionary perspective is adopted in which economic growth and technological change are viewed as a complex, non-linear, path-dependent process, driven by short-term benefits instead of longer-term optimality. The article discusses the externality issues of technological change and the need for institutional adaptation, and talks about the relationship between economic growth and particular trajectories of technological change. It is stated that some of the present technological trajectories have reached their environmental limits and need to be replaced by environment-friendlier trajectories. However, such transitions are hindered by technical, economic and institutional barriers since the new trajectories have not yet benefited from 'dynamic scale and learning effects' and because the 'selection environment' is adapted to the old regime. The determinants of the decision processes to generate and adopt cleaner technologies are identified and analysed, and some policy issues of stimulating environment-friendlier technologies are discussed. 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RP Lindley, SJ, Univ Manchester, Sch Environm & Dev Geog, Ctr Urban & Reg Ecol, Manchester M13 9PL, Lancs, England. AB This paper presents a conurbation-scale risk assessment methodology which aims to provide a screening tool to assist with planning for climate change-related risks in the urban environment. This work has been undertaken as part of a wider, interdisciplinary project, Adaptation Strategies for Climate Change in the Urban Environment (ASCCUE). The main focus of ASCCUE is to help improve understanding of the consequences of climate change for urban areas and how these, and the neighbourhoods within them, can best be adapted. Adaptation options will be explored in the context of both conurbation-scale strategic planning and neighbourhood-level urban design. The paper conveys some of the initial outputs from the ASCCUE project. It firstly presents the overarching risk assessment framework, before outlining the GIS-based elements of the methodology. This draws on a characterisation of the urban area into distinctive "urban morphology units'' as the spatial framework for the analytical work. An example of heat related risk is given by way of an illustrative application of the methodology. The paper concludes with a consideration of the limitations of the approach and how some of these will be tackled as part of the ongoing work programme. CR *BETWIXT, 2004, BETWIXT PROJ OV *DEP HLTH, 2001, HLTH EFF CLIM CHANG *DEP HLTH, 2004, NHS HEATW PLANT ENGL *ENV AG, 2006, STRAT FLOOD RISK MAN *IPCC, 2001, IPCC CLIM CHANG 2001 *LAND US CONS, 1993, TREES TOWNS *NZ CLIM CHANG OFF, 2004, CLIM CHANG EFF IMP A *PSI, 2005, OV BESEECH PROJ *TEP, 2004, DER UND NEGL DUN SUR *UKCIP, 2001, SOC EC SCEN CLIM CHA *UKCIP, 2005, OV BKCC RES PROGR ADGER WN, 2005, CR GEOSCI, V337, P399 ANDERSEN MC, 2004, RISK ANAL, V24, P1231 BARTELS CJ, 1998, J HAZARD MATER, V61, P115 BENNION H, 2005, SCI TOTAL ENVIRON, V3441, P259 BIEN JD, 2004, ENVIRON MODEL ASSESS, V9, P221 BLONG R, 2003, NAT HAZARDS, V29, P57 BOHM G, 2005, J RISK RES, V8, P461 BROOKES N, 2003, VULNERABILITY RISK A CHEN KP, 2004, APPL GEOGR, V24, P97 CLARKE S, 2002, LONDONS WARMING IMPA COVA TJ, 1999, GEOGRAPHICAL INFORMA, P845 CRICHTON D, 2001, IMPLICATION CLIMATE DLUGOLECKI A, 2004, CHANGING CLIMATE INS GOODESS CM, IN PRESS ANAL MAXIMU GRANGER K, 2001, CCOP TECHNICAL B, V320, P165 HANDLEY J, 2000, RED ROSE FOREST URBA HEUVELINK GBM, 1908, ERROR PROPAGATION EN HULME M, 2002, CLIMATE CHANGE SCENA JONES RN, 2001, NAT HAZARDS, V23, P197 KLOSTERMAN RE, 1997, J PLAN EDUC RES, V17, P45 LEMPERT R, 2004, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V65, P1 LINDLEY SJ, 2004, SCI TOTAL ENVIRON, V334, P307 MEDYCKYJSCOTT D, 1994, VISUALISATION GEOGRA, P200 MESEV TV, 1995, ENVIRON PLANN A, V27, P759 MICHELOZZI P, 2004, EPIDEMIOLOGY, V15, S102 MONMONIER M, 1991, HOW LIE MAPS NLUD, 2005, NAT LAND US DAT WEBS OBRIEN KL, 2004, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V64, P193 OPENSHAW S, 1984, CONCEPTS TECHNIQUES, V38 PALUTIKOF JP, 2004, CLIMATE RES, V26, P43 PARSON EA, 2003, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V57, P9 PATT A, 2005, CR GEOSCI, V337, P411 PAULEIT S, 2000, LANDSCAPE URBAN PLAN, V52, P1 RYDIN Y, 2004, PLANNING SUSTAINABIL SALVI O, 2004, J RISK RES, V7, P599 SCHLUMPF C, 2001, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V51, P199 SNARY C, 2004, URBAN STUD, V41, P33 SUDDLE S, 2005, J HAZARD MATER, V123, P35 WATTS M, 2004, CRU DAILY WEATHER GE WHITFORD V, 2001, LANDSCAPE URBAN PLAN, V57, P91 WILBY RL, 2003, WEATHER, V58, P251 WILLOWS RI, 2003, CLIMATE ADAPTATION R ZWICK MM, 2005, J RISK RES, V8, P481 NR 54 TC 1 J9 J RISK RES BP 543 EP 568 PY 2006 PD JUL VL 9 IS 5 GA 074MI UT ISI:000239816100007 ER PT J AU Kahn, ME TI The death toll from natural disasters: The role of income, geography, and institutions SO REVIEW OF ECONOMICS AND STATISTICS LA English DT Article C1 Tufts Univ, Medford, MA 02155 USA. Stanford Univ, Stanford, CA 94305 USA. RP Kahn, ME, Tufts Univ, Medford, MA 02155 USA. AB Using a new data set on annual deaths from disasters in 73 nations from 1980 to 2002, this paper tests several hypotheses concerning natural-disaster mitigation. Though richer nations do not experience fewer natural disasters than poorer nations, richer nations do suffer less death from disaster. Economic development provides implicit insurance against nature's shocks. Democracies and nations with higher-quality institutions suffer less death from natural disaster. Because climate change is expected to increase the frequency of natural disasters such as floods, these results have implications for the incidence of global warming. CR *EM DAT, OFDA CRED INT DIS DA ACEMOGLU D, 2001, AM ECON REV, V91, P1369 ACEMOGLU D, 2002, Q J ECON, V117, P1231 ALESINA A, 1999, Q J ECON, V114, P1243 ALESINA A, 2000, Q J ECON, V115, P847 ALESINA A, 2001, BROOKINGS PAPERS EC, V2, P187 ALESINA A, 2003, J ECON GROWTH, V8, P155 ANNAN KA, 1999, INT HERALD TRIB 0910 ATHEY S, 2002, RAND J ECON, V33, P399 BESLEY T, 2002, Q J ECON, V117, P1415 BRESNAHAN BW, 1997, LAND ECON, V73, P340 BROOKSHIRE DS, 1985, J POLIT ECON, V93, P369 COHEN L, 1981, PUBLIC POLICY, V29, P1 COSTA DL, 2003, PERSPECTIVES POLITIC, V1, P103 COSTA DL, 2004, J RISK UNCERTAINTY, V29, P159 EASTERLY W, 2002, 9106 NBER GALLUP JL, 1999, INT REGIONAL SCI REV, V22, P179 GARRETT TA, 2003, ECON INQ, V41, P496 HALLSTROM D, 2003, UNPUB MARKET RESPONS HAMMITT J, 2000, UNPUB SURVIVAL IS LU HARBAUGH WT, 2002, REV ECON STAT, V84, P541 HESTON A, 2002, PENN WORLD TABLES VE KAUFMANN D, 2003, GOVT MATTERS, V3 KELLER W, 2002, REV ECON STAT, V84, P691 KLINENBERG E, 2002, HEAT WAVE SOCIAL AUT KNACK S, 1997, Q J ECON, V112, P1251 LAPORTA R, 1999, J LAW ECON ORGAN, V15, P222 LUTTMER EFF, 2001, J POLIT ECON, V109, P500 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 PRESTEMON J, 2002, AM J AGR ECON, V82, P145 RODRIK D, 2002, W9305 NBER SCHMALENSEE R, 1998, REV ECON STAT, V80, P15 SHEETS B, 2001, HURRICANE WATCH FORE SKIDMORE M, 2002, ECON INQ, V40, P664 WALKER J, 2002, WORLD DISASTER REPOR WILLIS K, 1997, J HOUSING RES, V8, P125 NR 36 TC 3 J9 REV ECON STATIST BP 271 EP 284 PY 2005 PD MAY VL 87 IS 2 GA 930DL UT ISI:000229395900006 ER PT J AU Conde, C Ferrer, F Orozco, S TI Climate change and climate variability impacts on rainfed agricultural activities and possible adaptation measures. A Mexican case study SO ATMOSFERA LA English DT Article C1 Univ Nacl Autonoma Mexico, Ctr Ciencias Atmosfera, Mexico City 04510, DF, Mexico. Univ Autonoma Tlaxcala, Escuela Agrobiol, Tlaxcala, Mexico. RP Conde, C, Univ Nacl Autonoma Mexico, Ctr Ciencias Atmosfera, Circuito Exterior,Ciudad Univ, Mexico City 04510, DF, Mexico. AB Climate extreme events (such as those associated to strong El Nino events) highly affect Mexican agriculture, since more than sixty percent of it is rainfed. The basic crop cultivated is maize, which is still the main source of nutrients for a large portion of the rural population in the country. Within the project Capacity Building for Stage II Adaptation to Climate Change in Central America, Mexico and Cuba, we analyze the strategies developed by maize producers in the central region of the country to cope with climatic adverse events. Impact on rainfed maize due to climate variability and climate change conditions are studied using a crop simulation model. Several adaptation measures can be evaluated using that model. However, the effect of other stressors must be considered in an assessment of the adaptive capacity of small farmers to climate variability and change. Key stakeholders' 'nvolvement in the region helped us to decide which of the adaptive measures could be viable under the current conditions and under future climatic conditions. The construction of greenhouses, the use of compost, and dripping irrigation, were some of the techniques selected with the participation of the stakeholders. The enthusiastic responses to these measures allow us to consider that they can prevail in the future, under climate change conditions. However, the adaptation to climate change includes -besides the stated techniques- the generation of the capacities to cope with climatic adverse events, that is, to enhance the adaptive capacities to climate change among the key stakeholders. CR *BANC MEX, 2005, INF AN 2004 CUADR A *CONAPO, 2004, POBL NAC MEX RES EST *IPCC WGI, 2001, SUMM POL MAK REP WOR *PLAN EST DES, 2005, PROGR ESTR DES RUR *SEMARNAT, 1996, EST SEL AG BAL AG SU *SEMARNAT, 2000, COMP EST AMB ALTIERI MA, 1987, HUM ECOL, V15, P189 APPENDINI K, 2001, MILPA TORTIBONOS RES CONDE C, 1998, GEOUNAM, V51, P26 CONDE C, 1999, 11 C APPL MET DALL T, P101 CONDE C, 1999, IMPACTOS EL NINO MEX, P103 CONDE C, 2003, CLIMATIC CHANGE ADAP, P241 CONDE C, 2003, OP M HUM DIM GLOB EN CONDE C, 2003, THESIS UNAM CONDE C, 2005, ADAPTATION POLICY FR, P47 CONDE C, 2005, ADAPTATION POLICY FR, P49 CONDE C, 2005, IN PRESS SYNTHESIS V CORTES S, 2004, CRITERIO, V2 FERRER PRM, 1999, THESIS UNAM FLORESCANO E, 1995, BREVE HIST SEQUIA ME GARCIAACOSTA V, 2003, DESASTRES AGRICOLAS, V1 GAY C, 2000, MEXICO UNA VISION HA GAY G, 2003, EVALUACION EXTERNA 2 JAUREGUI E, 1995, ERKUNDE, V49, P39 JONES CA, 1986, CERES MAIZE SIMULATI LIM B, 2004, ADAPTATION POLICY FR LIVERMAN DM, 1990, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V1, P49 MAGANA V, 1998, EL NINO NINA ESTADO MAGANA V, 1999, IMPACTOS EL NINO MEX NADAL A, 2000, ENV SOCIAL IMPACTS E NADAL A, 2000, MAIZ MEXICO ALGUNAS NAKICENOVIC N, 2000, SPECIAL REPORT EMISS OROZCO S, 2000, THESIS UNAM MEXICO PEREZ M, 2005, JORNADA MEXICO 0301 ZIERVOGEL G, 2005, IN PRESS VULNERABILI NR 35 TC 0 J9 ATMOSFERA BP 181 EP 194 PY 2006 PD JUL 1 VL 19 IS 3 GA 066VL UT ISI:000239258300003 ER PT J AU Boyd, DJ TI Life without pigs: Recent subsistence changes among the Irakia Awa, Papua New Guinea SO HUMAN ECOLOGY LA English DT Article C1 Univ Calif Davis, Dept Anthropol, Davis, CA 95616 USA. RP Boyd, DJ, Univ Calif Davis, Dept Anthropol, Davis, CA 95616 USA. AB Beginning in the late 1980s, the Irakia Awa commenced changing their basic subsistence adaptation. This included altering gardening practices, changing basic food consumption patterns, and most importantly, eliminating the production of domestic pigs. These changes were undertaken as part of an effort to improve the life experience of local residents and usher in a new plan of village improvement. The plan promoted the disintensification of subsistence production and increased involvement in cash-earning and recreational pursuits, as well as Christianity. If successful, the promoters of the plan hope that the village will become a more attractive place to live, migrants living away will return home to help revitalize the community, and Irakia will flourish in the new cash-oriented modern economy. CR ALPERS M, 1965, NATL I NEUROLOGICAL, V2, P65 BALDWIN JA, 1978, ANTHROPOL J CAN, V16, P23 BOYD DJ, 1981, AM ETHNOL, V8, P74 BOYD DJ, 1984, OCEANIA, V55, P27 BOYD DJ, 1985, AM ETHNOL, V12, P119 BOYD DJ, 2000, ENDANGERED PEOPLES O, P45 BROOFIELD HC, 1963, STRUGGLE LAND AGR GR BROOFIELD HC, 1968, ETHNOLOGY, V7, P43 BROOKFIELD HC, 1973, PACIFIC TRANSITION, P127 BROWN ET, 1978, INT J ROCK MECH MIN, V15, P211 DWYER PD, 1993, MEMOIRS QUEENSLAND M, V33, P123 FEACHEM RG, 1973, MANKIND, V11, P220 FEIL DK, 1984, WAYS EXCHANGE ENGA T FEIL DK, 1987, EVOLUTION HIGHLAND P GOLSON J, 1980, J SOC OCEANISTES, V36, P294 GOLSON J, 1990, ANNU REV ANTHROPOL, V19, P395 GOLSON J, 1991, POLYNESIAN SOC MEMOI, V48, P484 HAYANO DM, 1974, OCEANIA, V45, P18 HIDE R, USE MANAGEMENT PIGS HIDE R, 1981, THESIS COLUMBIA U NE KELLY RC, 1988, MOUNTAIN PAPUANS HIS, P111 LAWRENCE G, 1976, LANCET, V1, P125 LINDEBAUM S, 1979, KURU SORCERY DIS DAN LINTON R, 1955, TREE CULTURE LUZBETAK LJ, 1954, ANTHR Q, V2, P102 LUZBETAK LJ, 1954, ANTHR Q, V2, P59 MALYNICZ GL, 1977, AGR TROPICS, P201 MEGGITT MJ, 1965, LINEAGE SYSTEM MAE E MEGGITT MJ, 1972, HUM ECOL, V1, P111 MEGGITT MJ, 1974, OCEANIA, V44, P165 MODJESKA N, 1982, INEQUALITY NEW GUINE, P50 MORREN GEB, 1977, SUBSISTENCE SURVIVAL, P273 NEWMAN PL, 1982, RITUALS MANHOOD MALE, P239 PATAKISCHWEIZER KJ, 1980, ANTHR STUDIES E HIGH, V4 RAPPAPORT RA, 1967, PIGS ANCESTORS RITUA, V1, P1 READ KE, 1965, HIGH VALLEY SALISBURY RF, 1962, STONE STEEL EC CONSE SORENSON ER, 1972, CURR ANTHROPOL, V13, P349 STEWART RG, 1992, COFFEE POLITICAL EC STRATHERN AJ, 1969, OCEANIA, V40, P42 STRATHERN AJ, 1971, ROPE MOKA BIG MEN CE STRATHERN AJ, 1978, RES EC ANTHR, V1, P73 VAYDA AP, 1961, P AM ETHN SOC, P69 VAYDA AP, 1972, ENCY PAPUA NEW GUINE, P905 WADDELL E, 1972, MOUND BUILDERS AGR P WATSON J, 1977, ETHNOLOGY, V16, P57 WATSON JB, 1965, ETHNOLOGY, V4, P295 WATSON JB, 1983, TAIRORA CULTURE CONT WHITE JP, 1972, TERRA AUSTRALIS, V2, P258 YEN DE, 1991, POLYNESIAN SOC MEMOI, V48, P558 NR 50 TC 0 J9 HUM ECOL BP 259 EP 282 PY 2001 PD SEP VL 29 IS 3 GA 465TU UT ISI:000170606700001 ER PT J AU Yamtraipat, N Khedari, J Hirunlabh, J Kunchornrat, J TI Assessment of Thailand indoor set-point impact on energy consumption and environment SO ENERGY POLICY LA English DT Article C1 King Mongkuts Univ Technol Thomburi, Bldg Sci Res Ctr, Bangkok 10140, Thailand. RP Khedari, J, King Mongkuts Univ Technol Thomburi, Bldg Sci Res Ctr, 91 Pracha Utit Rd, Bangkok 10140, Thailand. AB The paper presents an investigation of indoor set-point standard of air-conditioned spaces as a tool to control electrical energy consumption of air-conditioners in Thailand office buildings and to reduce air pollutants. One hundred and forty-seven air-conditioned rooms in 13 buildings nationwide were used as models to analyze the electricity consumption of air-conditioning systems according to their set indoor temperatures, which were below the standard set-point and were accounted into a large scale. Then, the electrical energy and environmental saving potentials in the country were assessed by the assumption that adaptation of indoor set-point temperature is increased up to the standard set-point of 26 degrees C. It was concluded that the impacts of indoor set-point of air-conditioned rooms, set at 26 degrees C, on energy saving and on environment are as follows: The overall electricity consumption saving would be 804.60 GWh/year, which would reduce the corresponding GHGs emissions (mainly CO2) from power plant by 579.31 X 10(3) tons/year. (c) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *ASHRAE, 1992, 5592 ASHRAE *DEP EN DEV PROM, 2001, EL POW THAIL *DEP ENV DEV PROM, 2000, THAIL EN SIT 2000 AN AKBARI H, 2002, ENVIRON POLLUT, V116, P119 CHIRARATTANANON S, 2003, ENERG CONVERS MANAGE, V44, P743 KHEDARI J, 2001, P C MOV THERM COMF S, P472 MAHLIA TMI, 2001, ENERG CONVERS MANAGE, V42, P1673 SCOTT MJ, 1994, ENERG SOURCE, V16, P317 STEFANO JD, 2000, ENERGY, V25, P823 SUZUKI M, 1998, ENERG BUILDINGS, V28, P34 WIEL S, 1998, ENVIRON SCI POLICY, V1, P27 YAMTRAIPAT N, 2003, P 1 INT C SUST EN GR, P36 YUNGCHAREON V, 2003, P 1 INT C SUST EN GR, P26 NR 13 TC 0 J9 ENERG POLICY BP 765 EP 770 PY 2006 PD MAY VL 34 IS 7 GA 013QK UT ISI:000235424000001 ER PT J AU Desjardins, RL Smith, W Grant, B Campbell, C Riznek, R TI Management strategies to sequester carbon in agricultural soils and to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 Agr & Agri Food Canada, Res Branch, Ottawa, ON, Canada. RP Desjardins, RL, Agr & Agri Food Canada, Res Branch, 960 Carling Ave, Ottawa, ON, Canada. AB Carbon sequestration in agricultural soils is frequently promoted as a practical solution for slowing down the rate of increase of CO2 in the atmosphere. Consequently, there is a need to improve our understanding of how land management practices may affect the net removal of greenhouse gases (GHG) from the atmosphere. In this paper we examine the role of agriculture in influencing the GHG budget and briefly discuss the potential for carbon mitigation by agriculture. We also examine the opportunities that exist for increasing soil C sequestration using management practices such as reduced tillage, reduced frequency of summer fallowing, introduction of forage crops into crop rotations, conversion of cropland to grassland and nutrient addition via fertilization. In order to provide information on the impact of such management practices on the net GHG budget we ran simulations using CENTURY (a C model) and DNDC (a N model) for five locations across Canada, for a 30-yr time period. These simulations provide information on the potential trade-off between C sequestration and increased N2O emissions. Our model output suggests that conversion of cropland to grassland will result in the largest reduction in net GHG emissions, while nutrient additions via fertilizers will result in a small increase in GHG emissions. Simulations with the CENTURY model also indicated that favorable growing conditions during the last 15 yr could account for an increase of 6% in the soil C at a site in Lethbridge, Alberta. CR WATSON RT, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, V1, P1 *IPCC, 2000, LAND US LAND US CHAN, P377 *IPCC, 2001, IMP AD VULN TECHN SU, P56 *IPCC, 2001, SCI BAS TECHN SUMM R, P63 BRUCE JP, 1998, J SOIL WATER CONSERV, P382 CAMPBELL CA, 1990, CROP ROTATION STUDIE, P113 CAMPBELL CA, 2000, CAN J SOIL SCI, V80, P193 CAMPBELL CA, 2001, CAN J SOIL SCI, V81, P139 CAMPBELL CA, 2001, CAN J SOIL SCI, V81, P383 CHANTIGNY MH, 2001, CAN J SOIL SCI, V81, P131 COLE V, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, P745 CONANT RT, 2001, ECOL APPL, V11, P343 COSTA J, 1997, EXPERIENCE APPL NO T, P127 DEFRIES RS, 1999, GLOBAL BIOGEOCHEM CY, V13, P803 DESJARDINS RL, 2001, NUTR CYCL AGROECOSYS, V60, P317 DESJARDINS RL, 2001, SOIL SCI SOC AM J, V57, P115 DUMANSKI J, 1998, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V40, P81 FOLLETT RF, 2000, P C GREAT PLAINS SOI, V8, P1 FOLLETT RF, 2001, SOIL TILL RES, V61, P77 GARTEN CT, 1999, J ENVIRON QUAL, V28, P1359 GIFFORD RM, 1992, AUSTR RENEWABLE RESO, P151 HALVORSON AD, 1999, SOIL SCI SOC AM J, V63, P912 HOUGHTON RA, 2001, NDP050R1 CARB DIOX I JANZEN HH, 1999, HLTH OUR AIR SUSTAIN LAL R, 1997, SOIL TILL RES, V43, P81 LAL R, 1998, POTENTIAL US CROPLAN, P128 LAL R, 1999, ENVIRON SCI POLICY, V2, P177 LAL R, 2001, POTENTIAL US GRAZING, P249 LEE JJ, 1996, AGRON J, V88, P381 LI CS, 1992, J GEOPHYS RES-ATMOSP, V97, P9759 LI CS, 1992, J GEOPHYS RES-ATMOSP, V97, P9777 MCCONKEY BG, 1999, ESTIMATED GAINS SOIL MOSIER AR, 1997, GLOBAL BIOGEOCHEM CY, V11, P29 PARTON WJ, 1993, GLOBAL BIOGEOCHEM CY, V7, P785 PAUSTIAN KH, 1997, SOIL USE MANAGE S, V13, P230 SCHLESINGER WH, 1995, SOILS GLOBAL CHANGE SMITH P, 2000, GLOB CHANGE BIOL, V6, P525 SMITH WN, 1997, CAN J SOIL SCI, V77, P219 SMITH WN, 2000, GLOB CHANGE BIOL, V6, P557 SMITH WN, 2001, CAN J SOIL SCI, V81, P221 NR 40 TC 3 J9 CLIMATIC CHANGE BP 283 EP 297 PY 2005 PD MAY VL 70 IS 1-2 GA 942EG UT ISI:000230265100014 ER PT J AU Bereciartua, PJ TI Vulnerability to global environmental changes in Argentina: opportunities for upgrading regional water resources management strategies SO WATER SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY LA English DT Article C1 Univ Buenos Aires, Sch Engn, RA-1428 Buenos Aires, DF, Argentina. IIASA, START, Adv Inst Vulnerabil Global Environm Change, RA-1428 Buenos Aires, DF, Argentina. RP Bereciartua, PJ, Univ Buenos Aires, Sch Engn, Olazabal 1938, RA-1428 Buenos Aires, DF, Argentina. AB There is evidence of the increasing economic losses from extreme natural events during the last decades. These facts, thought to be triggered by environmental changes coupled with inefficient management and policies, highlight particularly exposed and vulnerable regions worldwide. Argentina faces several challenges associated with global environmental change and climate variability, especially related to water resources management including extreme floods and droughts. At the same time, the country's production capacity (i.e. natural resource-based commodities) and future development opportunities are closely tied to the sustainable development of its natural resource endowments. Given that vulnerability is registered not only by exposure to hazards (perturbations and stresses), but also resides in the sensitivity and resilience of the system experiencing such hazards, Argentina will need to improve its water management capacities to reduce its vulnerability to climate variability and change. This paper presents the basic components of the vulnerability analysis and suggests how it can be used to define efficient water management options. CR *CAM ARG CONSTR, 2003, CAMB CLIM CONS TERR, V1 *INT PAN CLIM CHAN, 1995, CLIM CHANG GLOSS INT *SAL BAS MAST PLAN, 2001, SAL BAS MAST PLAN BARROS V, 2000, SO HEMISPHERE PALEO, P187 CASTANEDA ME, 1994, METEOROLOGICA, V19, P23 FREEMAN P, 2002, DISASTER RISK MANAGE KREIMER A, 2001, DISASTER RISK MANAGE LINEROTHBAYER J, 2003, UNFCC WORKSH MECHLER R, 2003, THESIS U FRIDERICIAN POLLNER JD, 2001, 495 WORLD BANK TURNER BL, 2003, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V100, P8074 WILBANKS TJ, 2003, ENVIRONMENT, V45, P28 NR 12 TC 0 J9 WATER SCI TECHNOL BP 97 EP 103 PY 2005 VL 51 IS 5 GA 931CW UT ISI:000229464400015 ER PT J AU Fankhauser, S Smith, JB Tol, RSJ TI Weathering climate change: some simple rules to guide adaptation decisions SO ECOLOGICAL ECONOMICS LA English DT Article C1 Free Univ Amsterdam, Inst Environm Studies, NL-1081 HV Amsterdam, Netherlands. Hagler Bailly Serv Inc, Boulder, CO USA. World Bank, Washington, DC 20433 USA. RP Tol, RSJ, Free Univ Amsterdam, Inst Environm Studies, De Boelelaan 1115, NL-1081 HV Amsterdam, Netherlands. AB This paper discusses some of the elements that may characterise an efficient strategy to adapt to a changing climate. Such a strategy will have to reflect the long time horizon of, and the prevailing uncertainties about, climate change. An intuitively appealing approach therefore seems to be to enhance the flexibility and resilience of systems to react to and cope with climate shocks and extremes, as well as to improve information. In addition, in the case of quasi-irreversible investments with a long lifetime (e.g. infrastructure investments, development of coastal zones) precautionary adjustments may be called for to increase the robustness of structures, or to increase the rate of depreciation to allow for earlier replacement. Many of these measures may already have to be considered now, and could be worthwhile in their own right, independent of climate change considerations. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. CR *NAT AC SCI P, 1992, POL IMPL GREENH WARM *NAT WEATH SERV, 1997, BIG CHANG WORKS NAT *OFF TECHN ASS, 1993, PREP UNC CLIM *US COUNTR STUD PR, 1996, STEPS PREP CLIM CHAN ALEXANDER D, 1993, NATURAL DISASTERS BURTON I, 1978, ENV HAZARD, V1, P1 CALLAWAY JM, 1997, ADAPTATION COSTS FRA CARTER TR, 1994, IPCC TECHNICAL GUIDE DOWNING TE, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE EXTRE DOWNING TE, 1997, GLOBAL CHANGE, V2, P19 FANKHAUSER S, 1996, ADAPTING CLIMATE CHA FREDERICK KD, 1997, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V37, P141 FREDERICK KD, 1997, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V37, P291 GOKLANY IM, 1995, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V30, P427 HOURCADE JC, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, P297 KARL TR, 1995, NATURE, V377, P217 KARL TR, 1996, B AM METEOROL SOC, V77, P279 KATZ RW, 1992, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V21, P289 KNOX JC, 1993, NATURE, V361, P430 KWADIJK J, 1994, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V27, P199 LAMB HH, 1965, PALAEOGEOGR PALAEOCL, V1, P13 LAMB HH, 1982, CLIMATE HIST MODERN LANGEN A, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE EXTRE, P129 LEWANDROWSKI JK, 1993, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V23, P1 MAGALHAES AR, 1996, ADAPTING CLIMATE CHA, P44 MAJOR DC, 1997, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V37, P25 MATALAS NC, 1997, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V37, P89 MENDELSOHN R, 1997, ADAPTATION CLIMATE C MENDELSOHN R, 1997, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V37, P271 MILLER KA, 1997, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V35, P157 PEARCE DW, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, P179 REILLY JM, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, P427 ROGERS P, 1997, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V37, P229 SMIT B, 1993, ADAPTATION CLIMATIC SMIT B, 1997, IN PRESS CAN GEOGR SMITH A, 1994, MULTICRITERIA APPROA SMITH JB, 1996, ADAPTING CLIMATE CHA SMITH JB, 1996, CLIMATE RES, V6, P193 SMITH JB, 1997, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V7, P251 SMITH JB, 1997, OVERVIEW METHODS ASS SMITH JB, 1998, D9803 VRIJ U I ENV S TOL RSJ, 1996, ECOL ECON, V19, P67 TOL RSJ, 1998, ENERG POLICY, V26, P257 TOL RSJ, 1998, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V8, P109 WATSON RT, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, V1, P1 WIGLEY TML, 1981, CLIMATE HIST STUDIES YOHE GW, 1997, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V37, P243 YOHE GW, 1991, POLICY SCI, V24, P245 NR 48 TC 1 J9 ECOL ECON BP 67 EP 78 PY 1999 PD JUL VL 30 IS 1 GA 221RN UT ISI:000081740200007 ER PT J AU Astatkie, T Yiridoe, EK Clark, JS TI Testing for trend in variability of climate data: measures and temporal aggregation with applications to Canadian data SO THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY LA English DT Article C1 Nova Scotia Agr Coll, Dept Engn, Truro, NS B2N 5E3, Canada. Nova Scotia Agr Coll, Dept Business & Social Sci, Truro, NS B2N 5E3, Canada. RP Astatkie, T, Nova Scotia Agr Coll, Dept Engn, POB 550, Truro, NS B2N 5E3, Canada. AB It is not clear whether different measures of dispersion of weather attributes could lead to different conclusions on the nature and direction of climatic variability. The range is commonly used as a measure of variability, while the presence of trend is typically studied on seasonal and/or annual basis. In this study, we used daily average temperature values at 15 sites spatially distributed across Canada to test for the presence of trend in variability (measured by the range, the standard deviation and the IQR) using a bootstrap method. The length of the series varied from site to site, ranging from 30 to 151 years. The analysis was undertaken for each month, each season, and the annual data. When calculating the standard deviations, estimates of the annual mean temperatures were used to make the results invariant to the presence of trend in mean. The monthly and seasonal analysis revealed the presence of either increasing or decreasing variability for some months and some seasons. The results for the annual data were not so revealing, especially at sites where some months have increasing while others have decreasing trends. The results across sites did not exhibit a clear geographic pattern. However, there were consistently increasing trends in variability at Toronto and St. John's during non-summer months, and mostly decreasing trend in Edmonton. The significance of trend in variability using the range and the standard deviation were consistent in less than 30% of the time across sites and across the monthly, seasonal and annual aggregations. There was not much agreement between the standard deviation and the IQR either, highlighting the importance of the choice of a measure of variability. CR *C CIARN WORKSH ST, 2001, RISKS OPP CLIM CHANG *ENV CAN, 1992, CAN DAIL CLIM DAT PR *INS CORP, 2001, S PLUS 6 WIND US GUI AKAIKE H, 1974, IEEE T AUTOMATIC CON, V19, P716 BOX GEP, 1976, TIME SERIES ANAL FOR BRYANT CR, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P181 CLARK JS, 2000, CAN J AGR ECON, V48, P27 COCHRANE D, 1949, J AM STAT ASSOC, V44, P32 DOLL P, 2002, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V54, P269 EFRON B, 1993, INTRO BOOTSTRAP FRIEDMAN JH, 1984, 5 STANF U DEP STAT L FRIEDMAN JH, 1989, TECHNOMETRICS, V31, P3 GIORGI F, 2002, CLIM DYNAM, V18, P693 HARDLE W, 1990, APPL NONPARAMETRIC R JOHNSON DB, 1978, SIAM J COMPUT, V7, P147 REES DG, 1987, FDN STAT, P42 SMIT B, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P223 STAFFORD JM, 2000, THEOR APPL CLIMATOL, V67, P33 TRIOLA MF, 1999, ELEMENTARY STAT, P73 WOODWARD WA, 1997, J AGRIC BIOL ENVIR S, V2, P403 NR 20 TC 0 J9 THEOR APPL CLIMATOL BP 235 EP 247 PY 2003 PD DEC VL 76 IS 3-4 GA 757YH UT ISI:000187604000008 ER PT J AU Chapin, FS Hoel, M Carpenter, SR Lubchenco, J Walker, BH Callaghan, TV Folke, C Levin, SA Maler, KG Nilsson, C Barrett, S Berkes, F Crepin, AS Danell, K Rosswall, T Starrett, D Xepapadeas, A Zimov, SA TI Building resilience and adaptation to manage Arctic change SO AMBIO LA English DT Article C1 Univ Alaska Fairbanks, Inst Arctic Biol, Fairbanks, AK 99775 USA. Univ Oslo, Dept Econ, N-0317 Oslo, Norway. Univ Wisconsin, Ctr Limnol, Madison, WI 53706 USA. Oregon State Univ, Dept Zool, Corvallis, OR 97331 USA. CSIRO, Sustainable Ecosyst, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia. Abisko Sci Res Stn, S-98107 Abisko, Sweden. Stockholm Univ, Dept Syst Ecol, SE-10691 Stockholm, Sweden. Stockholm Univ, Ctr Transdisciplinary Environm Res, SE-10691 Stockholm, Sweden. Princeton Univ, Dept Ecol & Evolutionary Biol, Princeton, NJ 08544 USA. Beijer Inst, SE-10405 Stockholm, Sweden. Umea Univ, Landscape Ecol Grp, Dept Ecol & Environm Sci, SE-90187 Umea, Sweden. Johns Hopkins Univ, Sch Adv Int Studies, Washington, DC 20036 USA. Univ Manitoba, Inst Nat Resources, Winnipeg, MB R3T 2N2, Canada. Swedish Univ Agr Sci, Dept Anim Ecol, SE-90183 Umea, Sweden. Inst Council Sci, F-75016 Paris, France. Stanford Univ, Dept Econ, Stanford, CA 94305 USA. Univ Crete, Dept Econ, Rethimnon 74100, Crete, Greece. Russian Acad Sci, NE Sci Stn, Pacific Inst Geog, Far E Branch, Cherskii 678830, Russia. RP Chapin, FS, Univ Alaska Fairbanks, Inst Arctic Biol, Fairbanks, AK 99775 USA. AB Unprecedented global changes caused by human actions challenge society's ability to sustain the desirable features of our planet. This requires proactive management of change to foster both resilience (sustaining those attributes that are important to society in the face of change) and adaptation (developing new socioecological configurations that function effectively under new conditions). The Arctic may be one of the last remaining opportunities to plan for change in a spatially extensive region where many of the ancestral ecological and social processes and feedbacks are still intact. If the feasibility of this strategy can be demonstrated in the Arctic, our improved understanding of the dynamics of change can be applied to regions with greater human modification. Conditions may now be ideal to implement policies to manage Arctic change because recent studies provide the essential scientific understanding, appropriate international institutions are in place, and Arctic nations have the wealth to institute necessary changes, if they choose to do so. CR *ACIA, 2005, ARCT CLIM IMP ASS *AHDR, 2004, ARCT HUM DEV REP *ARCT COUNC, 2004, ARCT CLIM IMP ASS PO BERKES F, 2005, BREAKING ICE RENEWAB BERKES F, 2006, IN PRESS COASTAL MAN CALLAGHAN TV, 2002, AMBIO SPECIAL REPORT, V12, P6 CALLAGHAN TV, 2004, AMBIO, V33, P448 CHAPIN FS, IN PRESS AM NAT CHAPIN FS, 2003, FRONT ECOL ENVIRON, V1, P255 CHAPIN FS, 2004, AMBIO, V33, P344 CHAPIN FS, 2004, AMBIO, V33, P361 CHAPIN FS, 2005, ECOSYSTEMS HUMAN WEL, P717 DIETZ T, 2003, SCIENCE, V302, P1907 DOWNIE DL, 2003, N LIGHTS POPS COMBAT ELMQVIST T, 2004, AMBIO, V33, P350 GUNDERSON LH, 2002, PANARCHY UNDERSTANDI, V1, P1 HINZMAN LD, 2005, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V72, P251 KENDRICK A, 2003, NAVIGATING SOCIAL EC, P241 KRUPNIK I, 2002, EARTH IS FASTER INDI MAGDANZ JS, 2002, 259 AL DEP FISH GAM OLSSON P, 2004, ENVIRON MANAGE, V34, P75 PRENTICE IC, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, P183 SERREZE MC, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V46, P159 TURNER BL, 2003, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V100, P8074 NR 24 TC 1 J9 AMBIO BP 198 EP 202 PY 2006 PD JUN VL 35 IS 4 GA 072YH UT ISI:000239708600010 ER PT J AU Mote, PW Parson, EA Hamlet, AF Keeton, WS Lettenmaier, D Mantua, N Miles, EL Peterson, D Peterson, DL Slaughter, R Snover, AK TI Preparing for climatic change: The water, salmon, and forests of the Pacific Northwest SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 Univ Washington, JISAO, SMA, Climate Impacts Grp, Seattle, WA 98195 USA. Harvard Univ, John F Kennedy Sch Govt, Cambridge, MA 02138 USA. Univ Wisconsin, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Madison, WI 53706 USA. Forest Serv, USDA, Pacific NW Res Stn, Washington, DC 20009 USA. Richard Slaughter Assoc, Boise, ID USA. RP Mote, PW, Univ Washington, JISAO, SMA, Climate Impacts Grp, Box 354235, Seattle, WA 98195 USA. AB The impacts of year-to-year and decade-to-decade climatic variations on some of the Pacific Northwest's key natural resources can be quantified to estimate sensitivity to regional climatic changes expected as part of anthropogenic global climatic change. Warmer, drier years, often associated with El Nino events and/or the warm phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, tend to be associated with below-average snowpack, streamflow, and flood risk, below-average salmon survival, below-average forest growth, and above-average risk of forest fire. During the 20th century, the region experienced a warming of 0.8degreesC. Using output from eight climate models, we project a further warming of 0.5-2.5degreesC (central estimate 1.5degreesC) by the 2020s, 1.5-3.2degreesC (2.3degreesC) by the 2040s, and an increase in precipitation except in summer. The foremost impact of a warming climate will be the reduction of regional snowpack, which presently supplies water for ecosystems and human uses during the dry summers. Our understanding of past climate also illustrates the responses of human management systems to climatic stresses, and suggests that a warming of the rate projected would pose significant challenges to the management of natural resources. Resource managers and planners currently have few plans for adapting to or mitigating the ecological and economic effects of climatic change. CR *INT PAN CLIM CHAN, 1995, IMP AD MIT CLIM CHAN MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 *IPCC, 2001, CLIM CHANG 2001 SCI *NAT ASS SYNTH TEA, 2001, CLIM CHANG IMP US PO *NAT RES COUNC, 1996, UPSTR *SEATTL PUBL UT, 2001, WAT SUPPL Q A *VEMAP MEMB, 1995, GLOBAL BIOGEOCHEMICA, V9, P407 *WAT STOR TASK FOR, 2001, PUBL WASH STAT DEP E AGEE JK, 1993, FIRE ECOLOGY PACIFIC BACHELET D, 2001, ECOSYSTEMS, V4, P164 BAZZAZ FA, 1996, GLOBAL CHANGE TERRES, P43 BEAMISH RJ, 1993, CAN J FISH AQUAT SCI, V50, P1002 BOER GJ, 2000, CLIM DYNAM, V16, P405 BRUBAKER LB, 1986, VEGETATIO, V67, P119 CALLAHAN B, 1999, POLICY SCI, V32, P269 CLEVELAND WS, 1993, VISUALIZING DATA COHEN SJ, 2000, WATER INT, V25, P253 DALE VH, 1989, CAN J FOREST RES, V19, P1581 DALY C, 2000, ECOL APPL, V10, P449 DUFFORD W, 1995, ILLAHEE, V11, P29 EMORI S, 1999, J METEOROL SOC JPN, V77, P1299 FLUHARTY D, 1998, CLIMATE FORECASTS MA FRANKLIN JF, 1971, ARCTIC ALPINE RES, V3, P215 GEDALOF Z, 2001, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V28, P1515 GEDALOF Z, 2003, UNPUB ECOLOGICAL APP GIORGI F, 1989, MON WEATHER REV, V117, P2325 GIORGI F, 1994, J CLIMATE, V7, P375 GLANTZ MH, 1982, WATER RESOUR RES, V18, P3 GORDON C, 2000, CLIM DYNAM, V16, P147 GORDON HB, 1997, MON WEATHER REV, V125, P875 GRAY KN, 1999, THESIS U WASHINGTON HAMLET AF, 1999, J AM WATER RESOUR AS, V35, P1597 HAMLET AF, 2002, J WATER RES PL-ASCE, V128, P91 HARE SR, 1999, FISHERIES, V24, P6 HARE SR, 2000, PROG OCEANOGR, V47, P103 HARR RD, 1977, J HYDROL, V33, P37 JOHNS TC, 1997, CLIM DYNAM, V13, P103 JONES JA, 2001, WATER RESOUR RES, V37, P179 KARL TR, 1990, ENV SCI DIV PUBL, V3404 LAPRISE R, 1998, ATMOS OCEAN, V36, P119 LEUNG LR, 1999, J CLIMATE, V12, P2010 LEUNG LR, 1999, J CLIMATE, V12, P2031 LITTLE RL, 1994, CAN J FOREST RES, V24, P934 LOGERWELL EA, 2003, FISH OCEANOGR, V12, P1 MANABE S, 1996, J CLIMATE, V9, P376 MANTUA NJ, 1997, B AM METEOROL SOC, V78, P1069 MCCULLOUGH DA, 1999, 910R99010 US EPA MCKENZIE D, 2001, CAN J FOREST RES, V31, P526 MCPHADEN MJ, 1998, J GEOPHYS RES-OCEANS, V103, P14169 MILES EL, 2000, J AM WATER RESOUR AS, V36, P399 MOTE PW, 1999, 11 C APPL CLIM AM ME MOTE PW, 1999, IMPACTS CLIMATE VARI MOTE PW, 2002, GEOPHYS RES LETT NEILSON RP, 1998, GLOBAL CHANGE BIOL, V4, P101 PALMER RN, 2002, IMPACTS CLIMATE CHAN PALMISANO JF, 1993, IMPACT ENV FACTORS W PARSON EA, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE IMPAC PEARCY WG, 1992, OCEAN ECOLOGY N PACI PEARCY WG, 1999, PICES PRESS, V7, P17 PETERSON DL, 1998, CLIMATIC VARIABILITY PETERSON DW, 1994, CAN J FOREST RES, V24, P1921 PETERSON DW, 2001, ECOLOGY, V82, P3330 PINNIX W, 1998, CLIMATE PUGET SOUND PULWARTY RS, 1997, B AM METEOROL SOC, V78, P381 ROECKNER E, 1996, 218 M PLANCK I MET SLAUGHTER RS, 2002, UNPUB POLICY SCI SNOVER AK, 1998, OSTP USGCRP REG WORK STONE EL, 1991, FOREST ECOL MANAG, V46, P59 STOTT PA, 2002, NATURE, V416, P723 SWETNAM TW, 1990, SCIENCE, V249, P1017 SWETNAM TW, 1993, ECOL MONOGR, V63, P399 TERLECKYJ NE, 1999, ANAL DOCUMENTATION 3 TERLECKYJ NE, 1999, DEV 3 ALTERNATE NATL THOMSON AJ, 1984, CAN ENTOMOL, V116, P375 WALKER RV, 2000, FISH OCEANOGR, V9, P171 WARING RH, 1979, SCIENCE, V204, P1380 WASHINGTON WM, 2000, CLIM DYNAM, V16, P755 WELCH DW, 1998, CAN J FISH AQUAT SCI, V55, P937 WOODWARD A, 1995, ARCTIC ALPINE RES, V27, P217 ZOBEL DB, 1976, ECOL MONOGR, V46, P135 ZOLBROD AN, 1999, CAN J FOREST RES, V29, P1966 NR 81 TC 1 J9 CLIMATIC CHANGE BP 45 EP 88 PY 2003 PD NOV VL 61 IS 1-2 GA 738DU UT ISI:000186272100005 ER PT J AU Trnka, M Dubrovsky, M Zalud, Z TI Climate change impacts and adaptation strategies in spring barley production in the Czech Republic SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 Mendel Univ Agr & Forestry Brno, Inst Landscape Ecol, Brno 61300, Czech Republic. AS CR, Inst Atmospher Phys, Prague, Czech Republic. RP Trnka, M, Mendel Univ Agr & Forestry Brno, Inst Landscape Ecol, Zemedelska 1, Brno 61300, Czech Republic. AB The crop model CERES-Barley was used to assess the impacts of increased concentration of atmospheric CO2 on growth and development of the most important spring cereal in Central and Western Europe, i.e., spring barley, and to examine possible adaptation strategies. Three experimental regions were selected to compare the climate change impacts in various climatic and pedological conditions. The analysis was based on multi-year crop model simulations run with daily weather series obtained by a stochastic weather generator and included two yield levels: stressed yields and potential yields. Four climate change scenarios based on global climate models and representing 2 x CO2 climate were applied. Results: (i) The crop model is suitable for use in the given environment, e. g., the coefficient of determination between the simulated and experimental yields equals 0.88. (ii) The indirect effect related to changed weather conditions is mostly negative. Its magnitude ranges from - 19% to + 5% for the four scenarios applied at the three regions. (iii) The magnitude of the direct effect of doubled CO2 on the stressed yields for the three test sites is 35 - 55% in the present climate and 25 - 65% in the 2 x CO2 climates. (iv) The stressed yields would increase in 2 x CO2 conditions by 13 - 52% when both direct and indirect effects were considered. (v) The impacts of doubled CO2 on potential yields are more uniform throughout the localities in comparison with the stressed yields. The magnitude of the indirect and direct effects ranges from - 1 to - 9% and from + 31 to + 33%, respectively. Superposition of both effects results in 19 - 30% increase of the potential yields. (vi) Application of the earlier planting date ( up to 60 days) would result in 15 - 22% increase of the yields in 2 x CO2 conditions. (vii) Use of a cultivar with longer vegetation duration would bring 1.5% yield increase per one extra day of the vegetation season. (viii) The initial water content in the soil water profile proved to be one of the key elements determining the spring barley yield. It causes the yields to increase by 54 - 101 kg. ha(-1) per 1% increase of the available soil water content on the sowing day. CR *IPCC, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 ALEXANDROV VA, 2002, GLOBAL CHANGE BIOL, V8, P372 AMTHOR JS, 2001, FIELD CROP RES, V73, P1 ANGSTROM A, 1924, QUART J ROY METEOROL, V50, P121 BATTS GR, 1997, EUR J AGRON, V7, P43 BINDI M, 2000, ASSESSMENT POTENTIAL BRAZDIL R, 1995, IMPACTS POTENTIAL CL BROWN RA, 1997, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V83, P171 BUNCE JA, 2000, GLOB CHANGE BIOL, V6, P371 CUCULEANU V, 1999, CLIMATE RES, V12, P153 DHAKHWA GB, 1997, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V87, P253 DUBROVSKY M, 1996, METEOROL ZPR, V49, P129 DUBROVSKY M, 1997, ENVIRONMETRICS, V8, P409 DUBROVSKY M, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V46, P447 DUBROVSKY M, 2000, JP 3 EUR C APPL CLIM EASTERLING WE, 1993, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V24, P23 EWERT F, 1999, EUR J AGRON, V10, P231 HALL AE, 1979, OECOLOGIA, V143, P299 HALL AE, 2001, CROP RESPONSES ENV HARRISON PA, 1995, CLIMATE CHANGE AGR E HIJMANS RJ, 1994, WOFOST 6 0 USERS GUI HOOGENBOOM G, 1994, CROP ODELS DSSAT VER HULME M, 2000, USING CLIMATE SCENAR HUNKAR M, 1994, IDOJARAS, V98, P37 IGLESIAS A, 1995, CLIMATE CHANGE AGR E, P223 IGLESIAS A, 1995, CLIMATE CHANGE AGR E, P310 JURECKA D, 2000, PREHLED ODRUD OBILNI KIMBALL BA, 1983, AGRON J, V75, P779 KOSTREJ A, 1998, EKOFYZIOLOGIA PRODUK LAMPURLANES J, 2001, FIELD CROP RES, V69, P27 MACROBERT JF, 1998, UNDERSTANDING OPTION, P205 MAYTIN CE, 1995, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V29, P189 MCMASTER GS, 1993, RIV AGRONOMIA, V27, P264 MEARNS LO, 1997, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V35, P367 MENDELSOHN R, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P583 MITCHELL RAC, 1999, EUR J AGRON, V10, P205 NONHEBEL S, 1996, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V34, P73 OTTERNACKE S, 1991, USERS GUIDE CERES BA PORTER H, 1992, VEGETATIO, V104, P77 PORTER JR, 1999, EUR J AGRON, V10, P23 REILLY JM, 1999, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V43, P745 RIHA SJ, 1996, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V32, P293 RITCHIE JT, 1998, UNDERSTANDING OPTION, P79 SAEBO A, 1996, AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON, V57, P9 SANTER BD, 1990, 47 M PLANCK I MET SEMENOV MA, 1995, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V73, P265 SEMENOV MA, 1997, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V35, P397 SINGH B, 1998, SOIL TILL RES, V45, P59 STASTNA M, 2002, ROST VYROBA, V48, P125 TOLK JA, 1999, SOIL TILL RES, V50, P137 TRAVASSO MI, 1998, FIELD CROP RES, V57, P329 TRINKA M, 2002, THESIS MZLU BRNO TSUJI GY, 1994, DSSAT V3, V2 VANKEULEN H, 1986, MODELLING AGR PRODUC WATSON RT, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, V1, P1 WOLF J, 1995, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V29, P299 WOLF J, 1996, CLIMATE RES, V7, P253 ZALUD Z, 2002, THEOR APPL CLIMATOL, V72, P1 ZALUD Z, 2003, EUR J AGRON, V19, P497 NR 59 TC 0 J9 CLIMATIC CHANGE BP 227 EP 255 PY 2004 PD MAY VL 64 IS 1-2 GA 813ST UT ISI:000220927500012 ER PT J AU Burton, I Lim, B TI Achieving adequate adaptation in agriculture SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 UNDP, GEF, New York, NY USA. AB This paper reviews the prospects for adaptation in world agriculture in the face of climate change. The record of experience from previous decades demonstrates a considerable capacity to adapt and there is general optimism that successful adaptation will be maintained. There are some grounds for concern because of the uncertainty surrounding global climate projections and the probability of considerable regional variation in impacts. While world production may not be adversely affected, the prospects are not so encouraging for low latitude agricultural regions, in part because of lower capacity to adapt. Attention has focused on the farming community itself as the place where adaptation takes place, but now the processes of globalization are placing adaptation more in the hands of agri-business, national policy makers, and the international political economy. The continued success of adaptation rests more heavily on actions at the national level in the context of changing technology and world trade liberalization. An adaptation policy framework is suggested as a vehicle to help understand and facilitate adaptation in this changing context. CR WATSON RT, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, V1, P1 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 BURTON I, 1978, ENV HAZARD, V1, P1 BURTON I, 1999, 72 WORLD BANK BURTON I, 2001, ADAPTATION POLICY FR LIM B, 2004, ADAPTATION POLICY FR PARRY ML, 1999, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V9, P51 PARRY ML, 1998, CLIMATE IMPACT ADAPT SMIT B, 2001, ADAPTATION CLIMATE C, P877 SMITH B, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P223 SPANGERSIEGFRIE.E, 2004, USERS GUIDE BOOK ADA NR 11 TC 3 J9 CLIMATIC CHANGE BP 191 EP 200 PY 2005 PD MAY VL 70 IS 1-2 GA 942EG UT ISI:000230265100009 ER PT J AU Yim, WWS TI Vulnerability and adaptation of Hong Kong to hazards under climatic change conditions SO WATER AIR AND SOIL POLLUTION LA English DT Article RP Yim, WWS, UNIV HONG KONG,DEPT EARTH SCI,POKFULAM RD,HONG KONG,HONG KONG. AB Given the evidence from past experience, the coastal city of Hong Kong would be vulnerable to a variety of hazards that could be exacerbated by climatic change, including potential increases in typhoons, landslides, floods (both storm surges and rainstorms), and droughts, as well as the threat of future sea level rise. The greatest death tolls in the past have been inflicted during typhoon-induced storm surges. During two unnamed typhoons, in 1906 and 1937, the death tolls were 10,000 and 11,000, respectively. In contrast, death tolls associated with landslides and other hazards were relatively small. Under a climatic change scenario of an increase in frequency and severity of typhoons and rainstorms, and rising sea level, the vulnerable areas of Hong Kong can be identified. The shift in development from hillslope areas to coastal land reclamations over the last 25 years is a matter of concern. Although the hillslopes are susceptible to landslides during rainstorms, virtually all landslides can be traced to some important anthropogenic causes and are preventable with appropriate measures. In the coming decades, the low-lying areas created through coastal land reclamations could be susceptible to flooding during storm surges and rainstorms and as the sea level rises. These areas are also where there is high density urban and industrial development, and the vulnerability is the greatest. High seawalls to protect the reclaimed areas from storm surge flooding and sea level rise may increase the risk of rainstorm flooding. To reduce vulnerability, a combination of better monitoring, planning, protection, maintenance, and warning is proposed for adaptation. Monitoring is needed not only to detect future sea level changes but also to identify areas with the greatest risk. CR *IPCC, 1990, STRAT AD SEA LEV RIS HANSEN J, 1987, J GEOPHYS RES-ATMOSP, V92, P13345 KOO EH, 1990, P WORLD C CLIM DEV B, P285 LUMB P, 1975, Q J ENG GEOL, V8, P31 PEART MR, IN PRESS P 4 INT C E PEART MR, 1992, P 2 US AS C ENG MIT PEART MR, 1993, P 25 INT ASS HYDR RE, P241 YIM WWS, 1991, HONG KONG METEOROLOG, V1, P16 YIM WWS, 1991, RECLAMATION IMPORTAN, P139 YIM WWS, 1993, CLIMATE SEA LEVEL CH, P349 YIM WWS, 1993, P INT WORKSH SEA LEV, P89 YIM WWS, 1995, J COASTAL RES, V14, P167 NR 12 TC 2 J9 WATER AIR SOIL POLLUT BP 181 EP 190 PY 1996 PD SEP VL 92 IS 1-2 GA VM538 UT ISI:A1996VM53800019 ER PT J AU Small, C Nicholls, RJ TI A global analysis of human settlement in coastal zones SO JOURNAL OF COASTAL RESEARCH LA English DT Article C1 Columbia Univ, Lamont Doherty Earth Observ, Palisades, NY 10964 USA. Middlesex Univ, Flood Hazard Res Ctr, Enfield EN3 4SF, Middx, England. RP Small, C, Columbia Univ, Lamont Doherty Earth Observ, Palisades, NY 10964 USA. AB Recent improvements in mapping of global population distribution makes it possible to estimate the number and distribution of people near coasts with greater accuracy than previously possible, and hence consider the potential exposure of these populations to coastal hazards. In this paper, we combine the updated Gridded Population of the World (GPW2) population distribution estimate for 1990 and lighted settlement imagery with a global digital elevation model (DEM) and a high resolution vector coastline. This produces bivariate distributions of population, lighted settlements and land area as functions of elevation and coastal proximity. The near-coastal population within 100 km of a shoreline and 100 m of sea level was estimated as 1.2 X 10(9) people with average densities nearly 3 times higher than the global average density. Within the near coastal-zone, the average population density diminishes more rapidly with elevation than with distance, while the opposite is true of lighted settlements. Lighted settlements are concentrated within 5 km of coastlines worldwide, whereas average population densities are higher at elevations below 20 m throughout the 100 km width of the near-coastal zone. Presently most of the near-coastal population live in relatively densely-populated rural areas and small to medium cities, rather than in large cities. A range of improvements are required to define a better baseline and scenarios for policy analysis. Improving the resolution of the underlying population data is a priority. 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CSIRO, Sustainable Ecosyst, St Lucia, Qld 4067, Australia. RP Stokes, CJ, CSIRO, Davies Lab, PMB PO, Aitkenvale, Qld 4814, Australia. AB Pastoral development of Australian rangelands has been accompanied by fragmentation of land use, which has changed the scale at which humans and livestock access patchily-distributed resources in landscapes. These changes have tended to be targeted towards achieving narrowly defined policy or land management objectives, and have ignored the broader consequences for land use. We describe the processes of rangeland fragmentation, the factors that have driven these changing patterns of land use, and current trends towards enterprise consolidation and intensification, which continue to reshape the way humans and livestock use rangelands. Although there is growing interest in intensified systems of rangeland management, some of the benefits are uncertain, and there are several risks that serve as a caution against overoptimism: (i) intensification involves multiple simultaneous changes to enterprise operations and the benefits and trade offs of each component need to be better understood; (ii) if intensification proceeds without addressing constraints to implementing these management options sustainably then overutilisation and degradation of rangelands is likely to occur; (iii) further fragmentation of rangelands ( from increased internal fencing) could compromise potential benefits derived from landscape heterogeneity in connected landscapes. Adaptation by the pastoral industry continues to reshape the use of rangelands. A broad-based approach to changes in land use that incorporates risks together with expected benefits during initial planning decisions would contribute to greater resilience of rangeland enterprises. 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RP Leatherman, T, Univ S Carolina, Dept Anthropol, Columbia, SC 29208 USA. AB In this article I present a political-ecological approach for biocultural analyses that attempts to synthesize perspectives from anthropological political economy and those from ecological anthropology and human adaptability approaches. The approach is used to examine contexts and consequences of vulnerability among Andean peoples in southern Peru, and specifically the ongoing and dialectical relationships between poverty, illness, and household production. Household demographic composition, class position, economic status, and interpersonal relations are all important in shaping their experience with illness, and coping capacity in dealing with the consequences of illness on household livelihood. I suggest that the contexts and consequences of vulnerability among rural producers in southern Peru contributed in part to the spread of the Sendero Luminoso revolutionary movement into the region in the late 1980s and early 1990s. CR ALBERTI G, 1974, RECIPROCIDAD INTERCA ALBERTI G, 1981, BASIC NEEDS CONTEXT ANDERSONFYE EP, 2003, ETHOS, V31, P59 ARAMBURU CE, 1983, FAMILIA TRABAJO PERU BAKER PT, 1976, MAN ANDES MULTIDISCI BLAKEY M, 1994, DIAGNOSING AM ANTHR, P149 BLAKEY M, 1998, BUILDING NEW BIOCULT, P379 BROOKE TR, 1998, BUILDING NEW BIOCULT, P451 BROWN P, 1987, RES EC ANTHR, V8, P201 BROWN PJ, 1992, ANTHR NEWSLETTER, V33, P21 BRYANT RL, 1997, 3 WORLD POLITICAL EC CHAMBERS R, 1989, IDS B, V20, P1 CRANDONMALAMUD L, 1991, FAT OUR SOULS SOCIAL DEERE CD, 1987, HOUSEHOLD CLASS RELA DOLE C, 2003, ETHOS, V31, P357 ERASMUS CJ, 1956, SW J ANTHR, V12, P44 FEACHEM RGA, 2000, B WORLD HEALTH ORGAN, V78, P1 FRISANCHO AR, 1970, AM J PHYS ANTHROPOL, V32, P279 GOODMAN A, 1998, BUILDING NEW BIOCULT GOODMAN AH, 1998, BUILDING NEW BIOCULT, P3 GURSKY M, 1969, THESIS PENNSYLVANIA HANDWERKER WP, 2003, ETHOS, V31, P385 HOLDEN C, 1993, SCIENCE, V262, P1641 HOLLAND D, 1998, IDENTITY AGENCY CULT KALIPENI E, 1998, SOC SCI MED, V46, P1637 LARME A, 2003, MED PLURALISM ANDES, P191 LEATHERMAN TL, 1998, SOC SCI MED, V47, P1031 LEATHERMAN TL, 1993, MED ANTHROPOL Q, V7, P202 LEATHERMAN TL, 1994, HUM ORGAN, V53, P371 LEATHERMAN TL, 1996, MED ANTHROPOL Q, V10, P476 LEATHERMAN TL, 2001, NEW DIRECTIONS ANTHR, P113 LEONARD WR, 1988, ECOL FOOD NUTR, V21, P245 LEVINS R, 1985, DIALECTICAL BIOL LEWONTIN RC, 1978, SCI AM, V239, P213 LUERSSEN JS, 1994, HUM ORGAN, V53, P380 MCCLINTOCK C, 1984, WORLD POLIT, V37, P48 MURRA JV, 1984, ANNU REV ANTHROPOL, V13, P119 ORLOVE B, 1977, PEASANT LIVELIHOOD S, P201 ORLOVE BS, 1980, ANNU REV ANTHROPOL, V9, P235 PEACOCK J, 1995, ANTHR NEWSLETTER, V4, P1 PEET R, 1996, LIBERATION ECOLOGIES PELTO GH, 1989, HUM ORGAN, V48, P11 ROBBINS RH, 2002, GLOBAL PROBLEMS CULT ROSEBERRY W, 1988, ANNU REV ANTHROPOL, V17, P161 ROSEBERRY W, 1998, BUILDING NEW BIOCULT, P75 SEN AK, 1992, INEQUALITY REEXAMINE SINGER M, 1989, MED ANTHR, V10, P218 SINGER M, 1998, BUILDING NEW BIOCULT, P93 SMITH GA, 1998, BUILDING NEW BIOCULT, P451 STARN O, 1991, CULTURAL ANTHR, V6, P63 THOMAS R, 1988, CAPACITY WORK TROPIC, P249 THOMAS RB, 1973, OCCASIONAL PAPERS AN WATTS MJ, 1993, PROG HUM GEOG, V17, P43 WOLF E, 1982, EUROPE PEOPLE HIST NR 54 TC 0 J9 ETHOS BP 46 EP 70 PY 2005 PD MAR VL 33 IS 1 GA 913NL UT ISI:000228158600003 ER PT J AU Lange, MA Cohen, SJ Kuhry, P TI Integrated global change impact studies in the Arctic: the role of the stakeholders SO POLAR RESEARCH LA English DT Article C1 Univ Munster, Inst Geophys, D-48149 Munster, Germany. Environm Canada, Adaptat & Impacts Res Grp, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z2, Canada. Univ British Columbia, Sustainable Dev Res Inst, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z2, Canada. Univ Lapland, Arctic Ctr, BASIS Informat Off, SF-96101 Rovaniemi, Finland. RP Lange, MA, Univ Munster, Inst Geophys, Corrensstr 24, D-48149 Munster, Germany. AB Responses to global change impacts require the specification of mitigation and adaptation options. Integrated regional impact studies provide some of the information needed for rational decision making. In order to carry out a comprehensive impact study, the involvement of stakeholders in the planning and execution of the study is seen as a necessary prerequisite for an acceptance of its conclusions by the broad public. One way to pursue such an involvement is through a scientist-stakeholder collaborative. Such a collaborative, for instance institutionalized through a joint scientist-stakeholder steering committee addressing issues related to mutual communication and the integration of individual study results, offers a number of additional advantages. The experience of local residents and the utilization of traditional knowledge may provide insight and expertise inaccessible to scientific investigations. Within the Barents Sea Impact Study, the involvement of stakeholders has been given significant weight early on. One of the main instruments employed in the stakeholder collaborative is the BASIS Information Office. However, given the diversity of backgrounds and interests of stakeholders from four different countries, scientist-stakeholder collaboration represents a significant challenge within BASIS. This notwithstanding, we consider the advantages gained worth the extra effort. CR *BAR, 1994, BAR PROGR *FINN BAR GROUP, 1996, BAR 1996 BAR EUR ARC CARTER TR, 1994, IPCC TECHNICAL GUIDE COHEN JT, 1998, HUM ECOL RISK ASSESS, V4, P341 COHEN SJ, 1997, ARCTIC, V50, P293 COHEN SJ, 1997, ENVIRON MODEL ASSESS, V2, P281 HOUGHTON JT, 1990, CLIMATE CHANGE IPCC KRUSE J, 1998, IMPLICATION GLOBAL C, P143 LANGE MA, 1997, ASSESSING CONSEQUENC LANGE MA, 1997, EUROPES NO DIMENSION, P185 LANGE MA, 1997, P 5 INT S COLD REG D, P313 MAXWELL B, 1998, RESPONDING GLOBAL CL, V2 SMIT B, 1993, ADAPTATION CLIMATE V WELLER G, 1998, P WORKSH JUN 1997 FA YIN Y, 1997, MACKENZIE BASIN IMPA, P275 YIN YY, 1994, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V4, P246 NR 16 TC 1 J9 POLAR RES BP 389 EP 396 PY 1999 VL 18 IS 2 GA 282PY UT ISI:000085228300040 ER PT J AU Alig, RJ TI US landowner behavior, land use and land cover changes, and climate change mitigation SO SILVA FENNICA LA English DT Review C1 USDA, Forest Serv, Forestry Sci Lab, Corvallis, OR 97331 USA. RP Alig, RJ, USDA, Forest Serv, Forestry Sci Lab, 3200 SW Jefferson Way, Corvallis, OR 97331 USA. AB Landowner behavior is a major determinant of land use and land cover changes, an important consideration for policy analysts concerned with global change. Study of landowner behavior aids in designing more effective incentives for inducing land use and land cover changes to help mitigate climate change by reducing net greenhouse gas emissions. Afforestation, deforestation, reforestation, and timber harvest are the most frequent land management practices that influence forest carbon stocks and flux. Research studies provide estimates of how private landowners respond to market signals and government programs and how they alter land management. For example, landowners have tended to retain subsidized afforested stands well beyond program life in the United States, suggesting that similar programs for climate change mitigation could result in high rates of retention. At the same time, policy makers need to be aware that unintended consequences of policies can lead to significantly different outcomes than envisioned, including leakage possibilities. 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RP Gezon, LL, State Univ W Georgia, Dept Anthropol, Carrollton, GA 30118 USA. AB I present a case of ritual innovation and spirit possession in northern Madagascar that builds on Rappaport's interests in the systemic nature of human-environmental interactions, the relationship between the various levels of political scale, and the interaction between meaning and material relations. I go beyond his formulations in questioning concepts of homeostasis and dynamic equilibrium, and instead propose to understand perturbations as inherent in a system and a source of systemic transformation. In this analysis, I place ecological relations and ritual within an explicitly political framework and examine the processes of social and material change. In drawing on the concept of cognized models, I also illustrate how historical memory and ritual enactments provide ideological frameworks for negotiating control over the use and management of the environment. 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Univ E Anglia, Sch Environm Sci, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. RP Brooks, N, Univ E Anglia, Tyndall Ctr Climate Change Res, Saharan Studies Programme, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. AB The first complex, highly organised, state-level societies emerged in the Afro-Asiatic monsoon belt and northern South America during the 6th and early 5th millennia BP. This was a period of profound climatic and environmental change in these regions and globally, characterised by a weakening of the global monsoon system and widespread aridification in regions that today contain the bulk of the world's warm deserts. This paper examines trajectories of socio-cultural and environmental change in six key regions in which complex societies emerged during the Middle Holocene: the central Sahara (focusing on the Libyan Fezzan), Egypt, Mesopotamia, South Asia (Indus-Sarasvati region), northern China and coastal Peru. Links between environmental and socio-cultural change are explored in the context of archaeological and palaeoenvironmental data and a theoretical framework of increasing social complexity as a response to enhanced aridity, driven largely by population agglomeration in environmental refugia characterised by the presence of surface water. There is direct evidence of adaptation to increased aridity in the archaeological literature relating to the Sahara and Egypt. In the other regions examined, the data are consistent with the notion that increased social complexity was largely driven by environmental deterioration, although further local-scale archaeological and palaeoenvironmental data are required to clarify the processes involved. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd and INQUA. All rights reserved. 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VONGRAFENSTEIN U, 1998, CLIM DYNAM, V14, P73 WANG L, 1995, TERRA NOSTRA, P292 WASYLIKOWA K, 1993, ENV CHANGE HUMAN CUL, P25 WEI K, 1999, QUATERNARY SCI REV, V18, P1315 WEISS H, 1997, NATO ASI SER, V1, P711 WELLS LE, 1999, GEOARCHAEOLOGY, V14, P755 WENDORF F, 1998, J ANTHROPOL ARCHAEOL, V17, P97 WENGROW D, 2001, CAMB ARCHAEOL J, V11, P91 WHEELER M, 1968, INDUS CIVILIZATION WILKINSON T, 2003, GENESIS PHARAOHS WILSON A, 2003, ARCHAEOLOGY FAZZAN, V1, P327 WITTFOGEL K, 1957, ORIENTAL DESPOTISM WRIGHT HT, 2001, URUK MESOPOTAMIA ITS, P123 XIAO JL, 2004, QUATERNARY SCI REV, V23, P1669 YANG XP, 2003, QUATERN INT, V104, P99 YOFFEE N, 2005, MYTHS ARCHAIC STATE ZHANG HC, 2000, PALAEOGEOGR PALAEOCL, V162, P389 NR 138 TC 0 J9 QUATERN INT BP 29 EP 49 PY 2006 PD JUL VL 151 GA 057JA UT ISI:000238590900005 ER PT J AU Kelly, DL Kolstad, CD Mitchell, GT TI Adjustment costs from environmental change SO JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL ECONOMICS AND MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article C1 Univ Calif Santa Barbara, Bren Sch Environm Sci & Management, Dept Econ, Santa Barbara, CA 93106 USA. Univ Miami, Dept Econ, Coral Gables, FL 33134 USA. LECG, Los Angeles, CA 90071 USA. RP Kolstad, CD, Univ Calif Santa Barbara, Bren Sch Environm Sci & Management, Dept Econ, Santa Barbara, CA 93106 USA. AB The paper is concerned with the case whereby the distribution of a firm's productivity shocks changes without the knowledge of the firm. Over time the firm learns about the nature and extent of the change in the distribution of the shock and adjusts, incurring adjustment costs in the process. The long-run loss in profits (+/-) due to the shift in the distribution we term the equilibrium response. The transitory loss in profits, incurred while the firm is learning about the distribution shift, is termed the adjustment cost. The theory is then applied to the problem of measuring adjustment costs in the face of imperfectly observed climate change in agriculture. The empirical part of the paper involves estimating a restricted profit function for agricultural land in a five-state region of the Midwest US as a function of prices, land characteristics, actual weather realizations and expected weather. We then simulate the effect of an unobserved climate shock, where learning about the climate shock is by observing the weather and updating prior knowledge using Bayes Rule. We find adjustment costs to climate change are 1.4% of annual land rents. (c) 2005 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. CR *NAT AC SCI, 1992, PAN POL IMPL GREENH ADAMS RM, 1990, NATURE, V345, P219 ADAMS RM, 1995, CONTEMP ECON POLICY, V13, P10 ADAMS RM, 1999, EC IMPACT CLIMATE CH BERNDT ER, 1981, MODELING MEASURING N, P259 COOLEY T, 1995, FRONTIERS BUSINESS C, CH1 DEGROOT MH, 1970, OPTIMAL STAT DECISIO DIEWERT WE, 1987, ECONOMETRICA, V55, P43 ELLISON G, 1993, J POLIT ECON, V101, P612 FISCHER AJ, 1996, AM J AGR ECON, V78, P1073 FISHER AC, 1997, J ENVIRON ECON MANAG, V34, P207 HANSEN LR, 1991, J AGR ECON RES, V43, P18 JEPMA CJ, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995 JOHNSON S, 1970, REV ECON STAT, V52, P173 KAISER HM, 1993, AM J AGR ECON, V75, P387 KANE SM, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P75 KAUFMANN RK, 1997, AM J AGR ECON, V79, P178 KAYLEN MS, 1992, APPL ECON, V24, P513 KELLY DL, 1999, J ECON DYN CONTROL, V23, P491 KOLSTAD CD, 1998, 2928 U CAL SANT BARB KOLSTAD CD, 2001, HDB ENV EC LUCAS RE, 1967, J POLITICAL EC, V75, P321 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 MCFADDEN D, 1984, ADV APPL MICROECONOM, V3 MENDELSOHN R, 1994, AM ECON REV, V84, P753 MENDELSOHN R, 1996, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V80, P55 MENDELSOHN R, 1999, EC IMPACT CLIMATE CH MITCHELL GT, 2000, THESIS U CALIFORNIA MJELDE JW, 1998, AM J AGR ECON, V80, P1089 PEARCE D, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, CH6 PERRIN RK, 1990, MEASURING POTENTIAL POPE RD, 1994, AM J AGR ECON, V76, P196 REILLY JM, 1995, AM J AGR ECON, V77, P727 REILLY JM, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995 REILLY JM, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P253 REILLY JM, 2003, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V57, P43 ROSENBERG NJ, 1992, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V21, P385 ROZENZWEIG C, 1994, NATURE, V367, P133 SCHIMMELPFENNIG D, 1996, AER740 USDA SCHLENKER W, 2004, 941 CUDARE U CAL DEP SCHLENKER W, 2004, IN PRESS REV EC STAT SCHNEIDER S, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, CH1 SCHNEIDER SH, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P203 SLADE ME, 1993, HDB NATURAL RESOURCE, V3 SMITH B, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P223 SOHNGEN B, 1998, AM ECON REV, V88, P686 SOLOW AR, 1998, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V39, P47 THOMPSON LM, 1986, AGRON J, V78, P649 WATSON RT, 2002, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 WEBER EU, 1994, FARMERS DECISION MAK WESTCOTT PC, 1989, SITUATION OUTLOOK RE YOHE GW, 1995, J ENVIRON ECON MANAG, V39, P47 YOHE GW, 1996, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V32, P387 YOHE GW, 1999, EC IMPACT CLIMATE CH NR 54 TC 1 J9 J ENVIRON ECON MANAGE BP 468 EP 495 PY 2005 PD NOV VL 50 IS 3 GA 983HU UT ISI:000233223000002 ER PT J AU Bou-Zeid, E El-Fadel, M TI Climate change and water resources in Lebanon and the Middle East SO JOURNAL OF WATER RESOURCES PLANNING AND MANAGEMENT-ASCE LA English DT Article C1 Johns Hopkins Univ, Dept Geog & Environm Engn, Baltimore, MD 21218 USA. Amer Univ Beirut, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Beirut, Lebanon. RP Bou-Zeid, E, Johns Hopkins Univ, Dept Geog & Environm Engn, 313 Ames Hall,3400 N Charles St, Baltimore, MD 21218 USA. AB While the extent of human-induced global warming is inconclusive, the vulnerability of natural systems to rapid changes in climate patterns is regarded as one of the most challenging issues in recent years. Water resources are a main component of natural systems that might be affected by climate change. This paper characterizes water resources in several Middle Eastern countries and evaluates regional climate predictions for various scenarios using general circulation models. The country of Lebanon is selected as a case study for an in-depth investigation with potential impacts on the water budget and soil moisture as indicators. Adaptation measures are assessed, with a focus on no-regret actions in the context of local socioeconomic and environmental frameworks. CR 1999, FOOD AGR ORG STAT DA 2000, ENCY BRITANNICA *ERM, 1995, LEB ASS STAT ENV *ESCWA, 1996, EESCWAENR1996WG1WP3 *ESCWA, 1999, EESCWAENR1999WG1WP3 *FAO UN, 1997, IRR NEAR E REG FIG *IPCC WGI, 1996, CLIM CHANG 1995 IMP *IPCC WGI, 1996, CLIM CHANG 1995 SCI *IPCC WGI, 1996, IPCC WORKSH REG CLIM *MFA, 1999, SPOTL ISR ISR CHRON *NCRS, 1998, ON GOING WORKS CONTR *UKMO, 1997, CLIM CHANG ITS IMP G *UNFDP, 1999, 1 NAT INV GREENH GAS *WORLD BANK, 1999, DEV DAT COUNTR DAT C, P131 ALATOUT S, 2000, WATER BALANCE E MEDI, P59 AMERY HA, 2000, WATER BALANCES E MED, P13 ARNELL NW, 1996, GLOBAL WARMING RIVER AYOUB G, 2000, SUBMARINE SPRINGS CH BERKOFF J, 1994, STRATEGY MANAGING WA BROOKS DB, 2000, WATER BALANCES E MED CARTER TR, 1999, GUIDELINES USE SCENA CONWAY D, 1996, WATER RESOURCES DEV, V12, P277 ELFADEL M, 2000, IN PRESS WATER RESOU GORDON HB, 1992, CLIM DYNAM, V8, P83 HENNESSY KJ, 1995, INT J CLIMATOL, V15, P591 HOBBS BF, 1997, J ENVIRON MANAGE, V49, P53 JONES RG, 1997, Q J ROY METEOR SOC B, V123, P265 KHAIR K, 1994, WATER AIR SOIL POLL, V78, P37 KOLARS J, 1993, PROSPECTS LEBANON WA LANE ME, 1999, J WATER RES PL-ASCE, V125, P194 LITHWICK H, 2000, WATER BALANCES E MED, P29 LONERGAN SC, 1994, WATERSHED ROLE FRESH MCCULLY P, 1996, SILENCED RIVERS ECOL MEEHL GA, 1994, CLIM DYNAM, V10, P207 NODA A, 1989, J METEOROL SOC JPN, V67, P1057 PATZ JA, 1999, ENV MANAGEMENT MAGAZ POSTEL S, 1993, WATER SCARCITY SPREA SHANNANG E, 2000, WATER BALANCES E MED, P85 SHUVAL H, 1994, WATER SCI TECHNOL, V30, P187 SMITH JB, 1996, WATER RESOURCES DEV, V12, P151 STAR M, 1999, UN ECE ICP INTEGRATE, V325, P31 STRZEPEK K, 1996, WATER RESOUR DEV, V12, P229 STRZEPEK KM, 1996, WATER RESOURCES DEV, V12, P141 STRZEPEK KM, 1998, HDB METHODS CLIMATE, CH6 VANDAM JC, 1999, IMPACTS CLIMATE CHAN WATSON RT, 1998, REGIONAL IMPACTS CLI, V1, P1 WHETTON PH, 1993, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V25, P289 NR 47 TC 0 J9 J WATER RESOUR PLAN MAN-ASCE BP 343 EP 355 PY 2002 PD SEP-OCT VL 128 IS 5 GA 585HG UT ISI:000177518900005 ER PT J AU LEGGETT, J TI ENERGY AND THE NEW POLITICS OF THE ENVIRONMENT SO ENERGY POLICY LA English DT Editorial Material RP LEGGETT, J, GREENPEACE INT,SCI ATMOSPHERE & ENERGY CAMPAIGN,LONDON,ENGLAND. AB The public, policymakers, and industry have failed in general to fully understand the ramifications of the UN's unprecedented scientific advisory process on global warming, culminating in the 1990 report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. For their part, the world's climate scientists have failed - amid the many uncertainties in climate prediction - adequately to impress on policymakers' the worst-case analyses of global warming. In consequence, as a result of the perceived costs of emission-limitation policies, collective risk-analysis is erring on the side of potential adaptation rather than emission limitation. This paper argues that the current predictions of the IPCC - much less the worst-case analyses - brook no other course of action than a radical shift to a new global energy infrastructure; that societal feedbacks may yet come to impose the management of such a paradigm shift on industry and policymakers in the 1990s; and that the long-term winners in the energy industry will be those with the prescience today to see the writing on the greenhouse wall. CR BRUEL JM, 1990, CHEM IND NOV, P734 HOUGHTON JT, 1990, CLIMATE CHANGE IPCC NUNN PD, 1990, GEOGR J, V156, P125 NR 3 TC 2 J9 ENERG POLICY BP 161 EP 171 PY 1991 PD MAR VL 19 IS 2 GA FB131 UT ISI:A1991FB13100009 ER PT J AU Nakata, T TI Energy-economic models and the environment SO PROGRESS IN ENERGY AND COMBUSTION SCIENCE LA English DT Article C1 Tohoku Univ, Grad Sch Engn, Sendai, Miyagi 9808579, Japan. RP Nakata, T, Tohoku Univ, Grad Sch Engn, Aoba Yama 01, Sendai, Miyagi 9808579, Japan. AB The current century-an era of environmental awareness-requires energy resources to satisfy the world's future energy demands. We can use current energy use scenarios to help us to understand how energy systems could change. Such scenarios are not an exercise in prophecy; rather they are designed to challenge our thinking in order to make better decisions today. The conventional modeling approach tends to extrapolate changes in energy consumption from historical trends; however, technology innovation sometimes causes drastic reforms in energy systems in the industrial, commercial, residential and transportation sectors. The economic aspects are another key issue to be considered in order to understand future changes in energy systems. The quantity of the energy supply is set to meet the price of the energy demand of end users. This occurs on the condition that the price of the energy supply equates with the price on the demand side under the market mechanism. This paper reviews the various issues associated with the energy-economic model and its application to national energy policies, renewable energy systems, and the global environment. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 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RP Haddad, BM, Univ Calif Santa Cruz, 1156 High St, Santa Cruz, CA 95064 USA. AB The typical categories for measuring national adaptive capacity to climate change include a nation's wealth, technology, education, information, skills, infrastructure, access to resources, and management capabilities. Resulting rankings predictably mirror more general rankings of economic development, such as the Human Development Index. This approach is incomplete since it does not consider the normative or motivational context of adaptation. For what purpose or toward what goal does a nation aspire, and in that context, what is its adaptive capacity? This paper posits 11 possible national socio-political goals that fall into the three categories of teleological legitimacy, procedural legitimacy, and norm-based decision rules. A model that sorts nations in terms of adaptive capacity based on national socio-political aspirations is presented. While the aspiration of maximizing summed utility matches typical existing rankings, alternative aspirations, including contractarian liberalism, technocratic management, and dictatorial/religious rule alter the rankings. An example describes how this research can potentially inform how priorities are set for international assistance for climate change adaptation. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 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Univ Southampton, Dept Geog, Southampton, Hants, England. London Sch Hyg & Trop Med, London, England. Middlesex Univ, Flood Hazard Res Ctr, Enfield, Middx, England. Univ Maastricht, Maastricht, Netherlands. Goddard Inst Space Studies, New York, NY USA. Univ Politecn Madrid, Madrid, Spain. Int Inst Appl Syst Anal, Laxenburg, Austria. RP Parry, ML, Univ E Anglia, Sch Environm Sci, Jackson Environm Inst, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. CR *IPCC, 2000, IPCC SPEC REP EM SCE MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 *IPCC, 2001, CLIM CHANG 2001 SCI ARNELL NW, IN PRESS CLIMATE CHA JOHNS TC, 1997, CLIM DYNAM, V13, P103 PARRY ML, 1999, GLOBAL ENV CHANGE NR 6 TC 7 J9 GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANGE BP 181 EP 183 PY 2001 PD OCT VL 11 IS 3 GA 488HX UT ISI:000171922800001 ER PT J AU DEMARCHI, B TI EFFECTIVE COMMUNICATION BETWEEN THE SCIENTIFIC COMMUNITY AND THE MEDIA SO DISASTERS LA English DT Article RP DEMARCHI, B, COMMISS EUROPEAN COMMUNIT,INST SYST ENGN & INFORMAT,JOINT RES CTR,I-21020 ISPRA,ITALY. AB There are many accounts of hazard warnings which, although received by the target population, have not been appropriately understood and/or acted upon. In all such cases, what needs to be explored is a social relational failure rather than a technological one. 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M Consulting, Guelph, ON N1C 1E9, Canada. RP de Loe, RC, Univ Guelph, Dept Geog, Guelph, ON N1G 2W1, Canada. AB Climate change poses significant challenges for the Canadian water sector. This paper discusses issues relating to the selection of proactive, planned adaptation measures for the near term (next decade), A set of selection criteria is offered, and these are used in three cases to illustrate how stakeholders can identify measures appropriate for the near term. Cases include municipal water supply in the Grand River basin, Ontario; irrigation in southern Alberta. and commercial navigation on the Great Lakes. In all three cases, it is possible to identify adaptations to climate change that also represent appropriate responses to existing conditions; these should be pursued first. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. 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RP Salagnac, JL, CSTB, 4 Ave Recteur Poincare, F-75782 Paris 16, France. CR HERTIN J, 2003, BUILD RES INF, V31, P278 LARSSON N, 2003, BUILD RES INF, V31, P231 LISO KR, 2003, BUILD RES INF, V31, P200 LOWE R, 2003, BUILD RES INF, V31, P195 MILLS E, 2003, BUILD RES INF, V31, P257 PLESSIS C, 2003, BUILD RES INF, V31, P240 SANDERS CH, 2003, BUILD RES INF, V31, P210 SHIMODA Y, 2003, BUILD RES INF, V31, P222 STREEMERS K, 2003, BUILD RES INF, V31, P291 NR 9 TC 0 J9 BUILDING RES INFORM BP 67 EP 70 PY 2004 PD JAN-FEB VL 32 IS 1 GA 780JG UT ISI:000189377100011 ER PT J AU Tschakert, P Olsson, L TI Post-2012 climate action in the broad framework of sustainable development policies: the role of the EU SO CLIMATE POLICY LA English DT Article C1 Penn State Univ, Dept Geog, AESEDA, University Pk, PA 16802 USA. Lund Univ, Ctr Sustainabil Studies, S-22100 Lund, Sweden. RP Tschakert, P, Penn State Univ, Dept Geog, AESEDA, University Pk, PA 16802 USA. AB The linkages between climate change and sustainable development are multiple and profound. Nonetheless, their respective policy regimes have so far evolved along parallel, if not competing, paths. What is lacking to date is a detailed conceptual understanding of the practicability of their integration through cross-sectoral policies and programmes. We propose a synergistic adaptive capacity (SAC) framework that places adaptive capacity and equity at the centre of current policy debates. This framework, based on social vulnerability as a linking element between climate change adaptation and poverty reduction, goes beyond current attempts to 'mainstream' adaptation and mitigation into national development priorities. We outline guidelines on how to operationalize the SAC framework and, at the end, define the role of the EU in promoting and implementing these synergies within the post-2012 climate policy regime. CR ADGER WN, 2001, DEV CHANGE, V32, P681 ADGER WN, 2003, PROGR DEV STUDIES, V3, P179 ALLEN K, 2003, NATURAL DISASTERS DE BROOKS N, 2003, 38 TYND CTR CLIM CHA BROWN K, 2003, 29 TYND CTR CLIM CHA BROWN K, 2003, CLIM POLICY S1, V3, S41 BROWN K, 2004, 16 TYND CTR CLIM CHA BURTON I, 1996, ADAPTING CLIMATE CHA, P55 BURTON I, 1997, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V36, P185 BURTON I, 2002, CLIM POLICY, V2, P145 CHRISTOPLOS I, 2003, NATURAL DISASTERS DE, P95 DANG HH, 2003, CLIM POLICY S1, V3, S81 DAVIDSON O, 2003, CLIM POLICY S1, V3, S97 DOWNING TE, 2003, CLIM POLICY S1, V3, S3 FRANZEL S, 2002, TREES FARM ASSESSING HELLER PS, 2002, FINANC DEV, V39, P29 KALSSON G, 2000, SUSTAINABLE ENERGY S KLEIN RJT, 2003, 40 TYND CTR CLIM CHA KLOOSTER DJ, 2000, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V10, P259 LAL R, 1999, ENVIRON SCI POLICY, V2, P177 MATHUR A, 2004, ADAPTATION MOSAIC SA MATSUO N, 2003, MITIGATION ADAPTATIO, V8, P191 MAZZUCATO V, 2000, RETHINKING SOIL WATE MCDONALD M, 2000, LAND DEGRAD DEV, V11, P343 NAJAM A, 2003, CLIM POLICY S1, V3, S9 NAJAM A, 2003, CLIM POLICY, V3, P221 NELSON KC, 2003, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V13, P19 OLSSON L, 2002, AMBIO, V31, P471 PALM C, 2004, ENV DEV SUSTAINABILI, V6, P145 PELLING M, 2003, NATURAL DISASTERS DE, P3 ROGERS EM, 1995, DIFFUSION INNOVATION SANCHEZ PA, 2000, AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON, V82, P371 SCOONES I, 2001, DYNAMICS DIVERSITY S SMEETS E, 1999, ENV INDICATORS TYPOL SWART RJ, 2003, CLIM POLICY S1, V3, S19 TSCHAKERT P, 2004, AGR SYST, V81, P227 WOLFENSOHN JD, 1997, WORLD BANK BOARD GOV WOLFENSOHN JD, 2004, BROOK I WASH DC 25 J NR 38 TC 0 J9 CLIM POLICY BP 329 EP 348 PY 2005 VL 5 IS 3 GA 991UN UT ISI:000233839700007 ER PT J AU Leach, M Mearns, R Scoones, I TI Environmental entitlements: Dynamics and institutions in community-based natural resource management SO WORLD DEVELOPMENT LA English DT Review C1 Univ Sussex, Inst Dev Studies, Brighton, E Sussex, England. RP Leach, M, Univ Sussex, Inst Dev Studies, Brighton, E Sussex, England. AB While community-based natural resource management (CBNRM) now attracts widespread international attention, its practical implementation frequently falls short of expectations. This paper contributes to emerging critiques by focusing on the implications of intracommunity dynamics and ecological heterogeneity. It builds a conceptual framework highlighting the central role of institutions - regularized patterns of behavior between individuals and groups in society - in mediating environment-society relationships. Grounded in an extended form of entitlements analysis, the framework explores how differently positioned social actors command environmental goods and services that are instrumental to their well-being. Further insights are drawn from analyses of social difference; "new", dynamic ecology, new institutional economics, structuration theory, and landscape history. The theoretical argument is illustrated with case material from India, South Africa and Ghana. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. 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WORLD DEVELOP BP 225 EP 247 PY 1999 PD FEB VL 27 IS 2 GA 180TX UT ISI:000079402200001 ER PT J AU Pandey, N TI Gender economics of the Kyoto protocol SO CONSERVATION ECOLOGY LA English DT Editorial Material RP Pandey, N, Sarojini Naidu Govt Girls Post Grad Coll, Bhopal 462016, India. CR MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 CARLSSONKANYAMA A, 1999, SOC NATUR RESOUR, V12, P355 GATTO M, 2002, CONSERV ECOL, V6, P1 GUNDERSON LH, 1995, BARRIERS BRIDGES REN, V1, P1 HARDING S, 1998, SCIENCE, V281, P1599 LEVINE JA, 2001, SCIENCE, V294, P812 LEVINE JA, 2002, SCIENCE, V296, P1025 OCONNOR RE, 1998, RISK DECISION POLICY, V3, P145 SCHEFFER M, 2001, NATURE, V413, P591 VEDWAN N, 2001, CLIMATE RES, V19, P109 WAMUKONYA N, 2002, ENERGY ENV, V13, P115 NR 11 TC 0 J9 CONSERV ECOL BP 1 PY 2002 PD JUN VL 6 IS 1 GA 591QW UT ISI:000177892600031 ER PT J AU Gardiner, SM TI A perfect moral storm: Climate change, intergenerational ethics and the problem of moral corruption SO ENVIRONMENTAL VALUES LA English DT Article C1 Univ Washington, Dept Philosophy, Seattle, WA 98195 USA. RP Gardiner, SM, Univ Washington, Dept Philosophy, 345 Savery,Box 353350, Seattle, WA 98195 USA. AB The peculiar features of the climate change problem pose substantial obstacles to our ability to make the hard choices necessary to address it. Climate change involves the convergence of a set of global, intergenerational and theoretical problems. This convergence justifies calling it a 'perfect moral storm'. One consequence of this storm is that, even if the other difficult ethical questions surrounding climate change could be answered, we might still find it difficult to act. For the storm makes us extremely vulnerable to moral corruption. CR MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 *IPCC, 2001, CLIM CHANG 2001 SYNT *NAT ASS SYNTH TEA, 2000, CLIM CHANG IMP US PO ARCHER D, 2005, J GEOPHYS RES, V110 ARCHER D, 2005, LONG WILL GLOBAL WAR BROOME J, 1992, COUNTING COST GLOBAL DIMITROV RS, 2003, INT STUD QUART, V47, P123 GARDINER SM, IN PRESS HDB INTERGE GARDINER SM, 2001, PHILOS PUBLIC AFF, V30, P387 GARDINER SM, 2003, MONIST, V86, P481 GARDINER SM, 2004, ETHICS INT AFFAIRS, V18, P23 GARDINER SM, 2004, ETHICS, V114, P555 GARDINER SM, 2006, UNPUB W3ORKSH GLOB J HANSEN J, 2004, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V101, P16109 HANSEN J, 2006, NEW SCH U FEBR 2006 HARDIN G, 1968, SCIENCE, V162, P1243 JUNGER S, 1999, PERFECT STORM TRUE S MARLAND G, 2005, GLOBAL CO2 EMISSIONS MEEHL GA, 2005, SCIENCE, V307, P1769 MENDELSOHN RO, 2001, GLOBAL WARMING AM EC NITZE WA, 1994, NEGOTIATING CLIMATE, P189 ONEILL BC, 2002, SCIENCE, V296, P1971 OSTROM E, 1990, GOVERNING COMMONS SAMUELSON RI, 2005, NEWSWEEK 0221, P41 SHEPSKI L, 2006, PAC DIV AM PHIL ASS SHUE H, 1999, INT AFF, V75, P531 SHUE H, 2005, PERSPECTIVES CLIMATE, P265 SINGER P, 2002, ONE WORLD ETHICS GLO, CH2 SPASH CL, 2002, GREENHOUSE EC VALUE TRAXLER M, 2002, SOCIAL THEORY PRACTI, V28, P101 WETHERALD RT, 2001, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V28, P1535 WIGLEY TML, 2005, SCIENCE, V307, P1766 NR 32 TC 3 J9 ENVIRON VALUE BP 397 EP 413 PY 2006 PD AUG VL 15 IS 3 GA 089VG UT ISI:000240908900013 ER PT J AU Olsen, KH TI National ownership in the implementation of global climate policy in Uganda SO CLIMATE POLICY LA English DT Article C1 Riso Natl Lab, UNEP Riso Ctr Energy Climate & Sustainable Dev, URC, DK-4000 Roskilde, Denmark. RP Olsen, KH, Riso Natl Lab, UNEP Riso Ctr Energy Climate & Sustainable Dev, URC, POB 49, DK-4000 Roskilde, Denmark. AB This article explores the history, from a developing country perspective, of how external interventions to implement global policies on the Climate Convention and the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) have been integrated into national development policy frameworks in the period 1990-2005. The main question asked is to what extent external interventions have formed part of a country-driven approach in Uganda. The conflicting national and global priorities concerning the need for adaptation to the impacts of climate change versus the need for global mitigation of greenhouse gases (GHGs) are explored first. Against this background, Uganda's policy response to climate change is reviewed. National climate policies are found not to exist, and the implementation of global policies is not integrated into national policy frameworks, partly due to conflicting national and global priorities. Given limited national awareness and the fact that climate policy is marginal compared to other national interests in Uganda, the experiences with donor support for the implementation of global climate policy nationally are analysed. This article demonstrates that neither national policies nor national management of donor support have secured a country-driven approach to external interventions in Uganda. CR *CARE UG, 2001, UG PLAN VIV SCOP REP *CLIM EN THEM GROU, 2002, CLIM EN THEM NAT ASS *DEP MET, 2004, NAPA PROJ INC REP *EARTH COUNC, 1999, PLANN SUST DEV UG ES *EP MET, 1994, SOURC SINKS GREENH G *EP MET, 1996, SOURC SINKS GREENH G *EP MET, 2001, CAP BUILD CLEAN DEV *EP MET, 2002, UG IN NAT COMM UN FR *GEF, 2003, RESP CLIM CHANG GEN *GUPTA J, 2005, AN NEG STRAT DEV COU WATSON RT, 1998, REGIONAL IMPACTS CLI, V1, P1 *MIN WAT LANDS ENV, 2003, MIN POL STAT MIN WAT *NAT STRAT STUD, 2003, CAP BUILD KYOT PRO 2 *UG MAN I, 2003, CAP DEV WORKPL CLEAN *UG WILDL AUTH, 2001, UWA FAC PROJ FOR PLA *UNDP, 1998, DEV COOP UG 1997 REP *UNDP, 2003, DEV COOP UG 2002 REP *WORLD BAK PROT CA, 2001, PROT CARB FUND UG W *WORLD BAK PROT CA, 2005, W NIL EL PROJ CDM SS *WORLD BANK, 2003, AFR ASS IN AFR REG C *WORLD BANK, 2005, POV RED STRAT IN FIN BROWN S, 2002, DEV CAPACITY TECHNIC BWANGO A, 2000, ENVIRON MONIT ASSESS, V61, P145 DAVIDSON O, 1998, AFRICAN PERSPECTIVES GWAGE P, 2004, BRIEFING DOCUMENT UN JAKOBSEN S, 1999, INT RELATIONS THEORY NAJAM A, 2003, CLIM POLICY, V3, P221 OKOTHOGENDO WHO, 1995, CLIMATE DEV CLIMATE OTITI T, 1996, OPPORTUNITY POLICY I OWEN M, 2003, CARBON TRADING PILOT SSEMWANGA C, 2004, CDM MARKETING CONCEP VANGASTEL J, 2005, AID EFFECT GIVING GO WINKLER H, 2005, CLIM POLICY, V5, P209 NR 33 TC 0 J9 CLIM POLICY BP 599 EP 612 PY 2006 VL 5 IS 6 GA 051TF UT ISI:000238183100004 ER PT J AU Guzman, E Conejo, R Garcia-Hervas, E TI An authoring environment for adaptive testing SO EDUCATIONAL TECHNOLOGY & SOCIETY LA English DT Article C1 Univ Malaga, Dept Lenguajes & Ciencias Computac, ETSI Informat, E-29071 Malaga, Spain. RP Guzman, E, Univ Malaga, Dept Lenguajes & Ciencias Computac, ETSI Informat, Bulevar Louis Pasteur 35, E-29071 Malaga, Spain. AB SIETTE is a web-based adaptive testing system. It implements Computerized Adaptive Tests. These tests are tailor-made, theory-based tests, where questions shown to students, finalization of the test, and student knowledge estimation is accomplished adaptively. To construct these tests, SIETTE has an authoring environment comprising a suite of tools that helps teachers create questions and tests properly, and analyze students' performance after taking a test. In this paper, we present this authoring environment in the framework of adaptive testing. As will be shown, this set of visual tools, that contain some adaptable features, can be useful for teachers lacking skills in this kind of testing. Additionally, other systems that implement adaptive testing will be studied. CR BRUSSILOVSKY P, 1999, P WEBN 99 WOLRD C WW, P149 CHUABDULLAH S, 2003, THESIS U KENT CANTER COLLINS JA, 1996, P 3 INT C INT TUT SY, P569 CONEJO R, 2004, INT J ARTIFICAL INTE, V14, P29 GLAS CAW, 2000, COMPUTERIZED ADAPTIV, P183 GONCALVES JP, 2004, LECT NOTES COMPUT SC, V3220, P1 GUZMAN E, 2002, INT C INF COMM TECHN GUZMAN E, 2002, LECT NOTES COMPUT SC, V2363, P739 GUZMAN E, 2004, LECT NOTES COMPUT SC, V3220, P12 GUZMAN E, 2004, TECHNOLOGY INSTRUCTI, V1, P303 HAMBLETON RK, 1991, FUNDAMENTALS ITEM RE KAY J, 2000, LECT NOTES COMPUT SC, V1839, P19 LILLEY M, 2004, COMPUT EDUC, V43, P109 LOPEZCUADRADO J, 2002, INT C INF COMM TECHN MCCALLA GI, 1994, STUDENT MODELS KEY I, P39 OPPERMANN R, 1997, KNOWLEDGE TRANSFER OWEN RJ, 1975, J AM STAT ASSOC, V70, P351 PAPANIKOLAOU KA, 2003, USER MODEL USER-ADAP, V13, P213 RUDNER LM, 2002, ANN M AM ED RES ASS VANDERLINDEN WJ, 2000, COMPUTERIZED ADAPTIV VANDERLINDEN WJ, 2001, COMPUTERIZED ADAPTIV, P1 VASSILEVA J, 1997, P AI ED 9M 8 WORLD C, P498 WEBER G, 2001, INT J ARTIFICIAL INT, V12, P351 NR 23 TC 0 J9 EDUC TECHNOL SOC BP 66 EP 76 PY 2005 VL 8 IS 3 GA 953VN UT ISI:000231109400007 ER PT J AU BRENT, SB TI INDIVIDUAL SPECIALIZATION, COLLECTIVE ADAPTATION AND RATE OF ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE SO HUMAN DEVELOPMENT LA English DT Article RP BRENT, SB, WAYNE STATE UNIV,DEPT PSYCHOL,DETROIT,MI 48202. CR BAKER JJW, 1974, MATTER ENERGY LIFE BALTES PB, 1976, AM PSYCHOL, V31, P720 EIBLEIBESFELDT I, 1970, ETHOLOGY BIOLOGY BEH FREUD S, 1900, BASIC WRITINGS S FRE HARRIS D, 1957, CONCEPT DEVELOPMENT HEGEL GW, 1956, PHILOSOPHY HISTORY HORN JL, 1976, AM PSYCHOL, V31, P701 JUNG CG, 1954, COLLECTED WORKS CG J, V17 KAHANA B, 1970, J ABNORMAL PSYCHOL, V75, P177 KUHN M, 1975, CTR MAG MAR LABOUVIEVIEF G, MERRILL PALMER QUART PIAGET J, 1947, PSYCHOLOGY INTELLIGE RIEGEL KF, 1976, AM PSYCHOL, V31, P689 SALTZ R, 1977, LOOKING AHEAD WOMANS THOMAS L, 1974, LIVES CELL TROLL LE, 1975, EARLY MIDDLE ADULTHO WAPNER S, 1956, PERCEPTUAL DEVELOPME WATSON J, 1970, MOLECULAR BIOLOGY GE WERNER H, 1937, HARVARD EDUCATIONAL, V7, P353 WERNER H, 1948, COMPARATIVE PSYCHOLO WERNER H, 1957, CONCEPT DEVELOPMENT WERNER H, 1963, SYMBOL FORMATION NR 22 TC 20 J9 HUM DEVELOP BP 21 EP 33 PY 1978 VL 21 IS 1 GA EK078 UT ISI:A1978EK07800002 ER PT J AU Gibbons, JM Ramsden, SJ Blake, A TI Modelling uncertainty in greenhouse gas emissions from UK agriculture at the farm level SO AGRICULTURE ECOSYSTEMS & ENVIRONMENT LA English DT Article C1 Univ Nottingham, Div Agr & Environm Sci, Loughborough LE12 5RD, Leics, England. Univ Nottingham, Christel DeHaan Tourism & Travel Res Inst, Nottingham NG8 1BB, England. RP Ramsden, SJ, Univ Nottingham, Div Agr & Environm Sci, Sutton Bonington Campus, Loughborough LE12 5RD, Leics, England. AB We outline a framework for considering uncertainty in estimates of emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) where the objective is to determine least cost (profit foregone) adaptations to reduce emissions at the farm level. Three sources of uncertainty were identified as being associated with GHG emissions: lack of understanding of biological systems, poor validation of results and weather-induced variability. Output from existing models and other information on emissions were included in a farm-level optimisation model, Farm-adapt, set up to represent a dairy and beef farm in north west England. Monte Carlo simulation was used to examine the effect of uncertainty on total GHG emissions and the most cost-effective adaptations for reducing these emissions to 60% of the baseline level. We assumed a triangular distribution for all parameters and sampled 1000 times from these distributions. Farm-adapt results showed that cost-effective adaptations were to: (i) eliminate intensive beef production, (ii) reduce stored manures and increase frequency of manure spreading, (iii) substitute concentrate feed for grass and conserved grass in milk production and (iv) apply less mineral nitrogen to grassland. Monte Carlo simulation showed that there was a large degree of uncertainty in the level of absolute emissions associated with the optimal adaptations and the mean of the simulation output (9265 kg ha(-1) year(-1) CO2 equivalent) was greater than the Farm-adapt results using default parameters (7787 kg hat year(-1)). However, there was a high degree of certainty in the adaptations required to reduce farm-level emissions, indicating that the cost-effective adaptations were robust to uncertainty in the GHG emission data. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. CR 1999, EC REV FARMING N W 2000, DEV STRATEGIES PROVI 2000, MAFF FERTILISER RECO 2004, DEFRA *IPCC, 2001, CLIM CHANG 2001 SCI ACKRILL RW, 2001, EUR REV AGRIC ECON, V28, P207 BARETH G, 2001, NUTR CYCL AGROECOSYS, V60, P219 BROWN L, 2001, NUTR CYCL AGROECOSYS, V60, P149 CARRO MD, 2003, BRIT J NUTR, V90, P617 GIBBONS JM, 2001, PREDICTING RESPONSE GIBBONS JM, 2003, MITIGATION GREENHOUS GIBBONS JM, 2005, AGR SYST, V83, P113 GIBBONS JM, 2005, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V68, P113 HOUGHTON JT, 1997, IPCC GUIDELINES NATL KAISER EA, 1996, PLANT SOIL, V181, P185 KRAMER KJ, 1999, AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON, V72, P9 LANDAU S, 1999, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V96, P163 LANDAU S, 2000, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V101, P151 LOVETT D, 2003, LIVEST PROD SCI, V84, P35 MCNAMARA JP, 2000, MODELLING NUTR UTILI MOSIER AR, 1998, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V70, P7 OENEMA O, 1998, NUTR CYCL AGROECOSYS, V52, P141 OGLETHORPE D, 2000, ENVIRON MODELL SOFTW, V15, P343 PANNELL DJ, 1996, REV AGR ECON, V18, P373 RAMSDEN S, 1999, AGR SYST, V62, P201 RAMSDEN S, 2000, FARM MANAGEMENT, V10, P606 SALWAY AG, 2001, UK GREENHOUSE GAS IN SCHIMMELPFENNIG D, 1996, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V33, P213 SHRESTHA S, 2005, THESIS U NOTTINGHAM SMITH JU, 1996, AGRON J, V88, P38 SOZANSKA M, 2002, ATMOS ENVIRON, V36, P987 NR 31 TC 1 J9 AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON BP 347 EP 355 PY 2006 PD MAR VL 112 IS 4 GA 011KD UT ISI:000235266100009 ER PT J AU NORGAARD, RB TI TRADITIONAL AGRICULTURAL KNOWLEDGE - PAST PERFORMANCE, FUTURE-PROSPECTS, AND INSTITUTIONAL IMPLICATIONS SO AMERICAN JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS LA English DT Article RP NORGAARD, RB, UNIV CALIF BERKELEY,DEPT AGR & RESOURCE ECON,BERKELEY,CA 94720. CR BOSERUP E, 1965, CONDITIONS AGR GROWT BOSERUP E, 1981, POPULATION TECHNOLOG DURHAM WH, 1976, HUM ECOL, V4, P89 HARRIS M, 1979, CULTURAL MATERIALISM LORENZ K, 1977, MIRROR LUMSDEN CJ, 1981, GENES MIND CULTURE NETTING RM, 1977, CULTURAL ECOLOGY NORGAARD RB, 1983, AGROECOLOGY, P7 NORGAARD RB, 1984, 297 U CAL GIANN F WO NORGAARD RB, 1984, ECON DEV CULT CHANGE, V32, P525 NORGAARD RB, 1984, LAND ECON, V60, P160 NORGAARD, 1981, J ENVTL EC MGMT, V8, P238 RALSTON L, 1983, VOLUNTARY EFFORTS DE RAPPAPORT RA, 1967, PIGS ANCESTORS RITUA, V1, P1 SIMON J, 1977, EC POPULATION WILKINSON RB, 1973, POVERTY PROGR ZIMAN J, 1968, PUBLIC KNOWLEDGE SOC NR 17 TC 6 J9 AMER J AGR ECON BP 874 EP 878 PY 1984 VL 66 IS 5 GA ACX98 UT ISI:A1984ACX9800067 ER PT J AU Siddiqui, KM Mohammad, I Ayaz, M TI Forest ecosystem climate change impact assessment and adaptation strategies for Pakistan SO CLIMATE RESEARCH LA English DT Article C1 Pakistan Forest Inst, Peshawar 25120, Pakistan. RP Siddiqui, KM, House 454B,St 11,F-10-2, Islamabad 44000, Pakistan. AB A study was carried out to determine the impact of climate change on natural forest ecosystems in Pakistan assuming a 0.3 degreesC rise in temperature and a precipitation change of 0, +1 and -1% decade(-1) with 1990 as the base year. The current atmospheric CO2 concentration of 350 ppmv was assumed to increase to 425 ppmv in 2020, 500 ppmv in 2050 and 575 ppmv in 2080. The BIOME3 model was used for computer simulation of 9 dominant plant types, or biomes. Of these, 3 biomes (alpine tundra, grassland/arid woodlands and deserts) showed a reduction in their area; and 5 biomes (cold conifer/mixed woodland, cold conifer/mixed forests, temperate conifer/mixed forests, warm conifer/mixed forests, and steppe/arid shrub lands) showed an increase in their area as a result of climate change. Enhanced CO2 concentration in the atmosphere appeared to have a pronounced effect on the biomes' area. Net primary productivity exhibited an increase in all biomes and scenarios. However, there is a possibility of forest dieback occurring and of time lag before the dominant plant types have enough time to adjust to changed climate and migrate to new sites. In the intervening period, they would be vulnerable to environmental and socio-economic disturbances (e.g. erosion, deforestation, and land-use changes). Thus, the overall impact of climate change on the forest ecosystems of Pakistan could be negative. A number of adaptation strategies are proposed to cope with climate change impacts on forest ecosystems. CR 1992, FORESTRY SECTOR MAST 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1993 AMJAD M, 1996, FORESTRY STAT PAKIST CHAMPION HG, 1965, MANUAL SILVICULTURE CURTIS PS, 1989, OECOLOGIA, V78, P20 GATES DM, 1993, CLIMATE CHANGE ITS B HAXELTINE A, 1996, MODELLING VEGETATION KHAN S, 1988, THESIS UTAH STATE U KHATTAK AK, 1992, SCHRIFTENREIHE FORST KNUDSEN AJ, 1994, DEFORESTATION ENTREP MIELLILO JM, 1993, NATURE, V363, P234 NIELSON RP, 1995, ECOL APPL, V5, P362 NORBY RJ, 1986, PLANT PHYSIOL, V82, P83 PRENTICE IC, 1992, J BIOGEOGR, V19, P117 SCHICKOFF U, 1993, PAKISTAN J FOR, P128 SIDDIQUI KM, 1997, FORESTRY ENV NR 16 TC 0 J9 CLIMATE RES BP 195 EP 203 PY 1999 PD AUG 27 VL 12 IS 2-3 GA V3096 UT ISI:000171723000017 ER PT J AU Ng, WS Mendelsohn, R TI The economic impact of sea-level rise on nonmarket lands in Singapore SO AMBIO LA English DT Article C1 Yale Univ, Sch Forestry & Environm Studies, New Haven, CT 06520 USA. World Resources Inst, Washington, DC 20008 USA. RP Ng, WS, World Resources Inst, 10 G St NE Suite 8000, Washington, DC 20008 USA. AB Sea-level rise, as a result of climate change, will likely inflict considerable economic consequences on coastal regions, particularly low-lying island states like Singapore. Although the literature has addressed the vulnerability of developed coastal lands, this is the first economic study to address nonmarket lands, such as beaches, marshes and mangrove estuaries. This travel cost and contingent valuation study reveals that consumers in Singapore attach considerable value to beaches. The contingent valuation study also attached high values to marshes and mangroves but this result was not supported by the travel cost study. Although protecting nonmarket land uses from sea-level rise is expensive, the study shows that at least highly valued resources, such as Singapore's popular beaches, should be protected. CR *MIN ENV, 2000, SING IN NAT COMM UN, P34 AHMAD QK, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, P1 AJZAN I, 1993, J APPL SOC PSYCHOL, V30, P2439 AMADORE LA, 1996, WATER AIR SOIL POLL, V92, P1 ARMENTANO TV, 1988, GREENHOUSE EFFECT SE, P87 CARTER TR, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, P145 CHURCH JA, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, P639 DILLMAN D, 1999, MAIL INTERNET SURVEY, P79 DOUGLAS BC, 2001, SEA LEVEL RISE, P1 DZIEGIELEWSKA DA, 2003, ESSAYS CONTINGENT VA, P83 ELLISON JC, 2000, CLIMATE CHANGE S PAC, P289 FREEMAN AM, 1993, MEASUREMENT ENV RESO, P516 JONES RN, 2000, CLIMATE CHANGE S PAC, P385 KALUWIN C, 2001, SEA LEVEL CHANGES TH, P273 KING SE, 1995, MAR POLLUT BULL, V30, P180 MCLEAN RF, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, P343 NEUMANN JE, 2001, GLOBAL WARMING AM EC, P132 NG WS, 2005, ENVIRON DEV ECON 2, V10, P201 NURSE LA, 2001, 3 INT PAN CLIM CHANG, P843 PARK RA, 1986, EFFECTS CHANGES STRA, P129 QUAH TS, 1999, EXPERT SYST APPL, V17, P295 REED DJ, 1995, EARTH SURF PROCESSES, V20, P39 RIJSBERMAN F, 1991, RESPONDING CLIMATE C SMITH JB, 1988, POTENTIAL EFFECTS GL, P1 SOLOMON SM, 1999, OCEAN COAST MANAGE, V42, P523 SORENSEN RM, 1984, GREENHOUSE EFFECT SE, P179 SPASH CL, 2000, ENVIRON SCI TECHNOL, V34, P1433 SWALLOW SK, 2001, J ENVIRON ECON MANAG, V41, P70 TIETENBERG T, 2000, ENV NATURAL RESOURCE, P646 TITUS JG, 1986, COAST ZONE MANAGE J, V14, P147 WARRICK RA, 1992, CONFRONTING CLIMATE, P97 WATSON RT, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, V1, P1 WHITE KS, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, P19 WONG PP, 1985, Z GEOMORPHOL, V57, P175 WONG PP, 1992, J SE ASIAN EARTH SCI, V7, P65 YOHE GW, 1999, IMPACT CLIMATE CHANG, P178 NR 36 TC 0 J9 AMBIO BP 289 EP 296 PY 2006 PD SEP VL 35 IS 6 GA 105NZ UT ISI:000242038700004 ER PT J AU Danis, PA von Grafenstein, U Masson-Delmotte, V Planton, S Gerdeaux, D Moisselin, JM TI Vulnerability of two European lakes in response to future climatic changes SO GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS LA English DT Article C1 IPSL, Lab Sci Climat & Environm, F-91191 Gif Sur Yvette, France. Agence Natl Gest Dechets Radioact, Chatenay Malabry, France. Lab Geodynam Chaines Alpines, Le Bourget Du Lac, France. Meteo France, CNRM, Toulouse, France. INRA, Stn Hydrobiol Lacustre, F-74203 Thonon Les Bains, France. RP Danis, PA, IPSL, Lab Sci Climat & Environm, F-91191 Gif Sur Yvette, France. AB Temperate deep freshwater lakes are important resources of drinking water and fishing, and regional key recreation areas. Their deep water often hosts highly specialised fauna surviving since glacial times. Theoretical and observational studies suggest a vulnerability of these hydro-ecosystems to reduced mixing and ventilation within the ongoing climatic change. Here we use a numerical thermal lake model, verified over the 20th century, to quantify the transient thermal behaviour of two European lakes in response to the observed 20th-century and predicted 21th-century climate changes. In contrast to Lac d'Annecy ( France) which, after adaptation, maintains its modern mixing behaviour, Ammersee ( Germany) is expected to undergo a dramatic and persistent lack of mixing starting from similar to 2020, when European air temperatures should be similar to 1degreesC warmer. The resulting lack of oxygenation will irreversibly destroy the deepwater fauna prevailing since 15 kyrs. CR *INT PAN CLIM CHAN, 2001, CLIM CHANG 2001 IMP ALEFS J, 1999, J PALEOLIMNOL, V21, P395 BLENCKNER T, 2002, AQUAT SCI, V64, P171 CARVALHO L, 2003, HYDROBIOLOGIA, V506, P789 DABROWSKI M, 2004, HYDROL EARTH SYST SC, V8, P79 DANIS PA, 2003, J GEOPHYS RES-ATMOS, V108 DOUVILLE H, 2002, CLIM DYNAM, V20, P45 FAMER DM, 1982, J PHYS OCEANOGR, V11, P1516 GARIBALDI L, 1999, J LIMNOL, V58, P10 GEORGE DG, 1998, MANAGEMENT LAKES RES, P301 GERDEAUX D, 1998, MANAGEMENT LAKES RES, P263 GIBELIN AL, 2003, CLIM DYNAM, V20, P327 GILLET C, 1991, AQUAT LIVING RESOUR, V4, P109 HENDERSONSELLER.B, 1986, REV GEOPHYS, V24, P625 HOUGHTON JT, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 KING JR, 1999, CAN J FISH AQUAT SCI, V56, P847 LIVINGSTONE DM, 2003, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V57, P205 MAGNUSON JJ, 1997, HYDROL PROCESS, V11, P825 MAGNUSON JJ, 2000, SCIENCE, V289, P1743 MOISSELIN JM, 2002, METEOROLOGIE, V38, P45 MOORE MV, 1997, HYDROL PROCESS, V11, P925 PATTERSON JC, 1988, LIMNOL OCEANOGR, V33, P232 PEETERS F, 2002, LIMNOL OCEANOGR, V47, P186 QUAYLE WC, 2002, SCIENCE, V25, P645 STENSETH NC, 2002, SCIENCE, V297, P1292 VERBURG P, 2003, SCIENCE, V301, P505 VONGRAFENSTEIN U, 1999, SCIENCE, V284, P1654 NR 27 TC 0 J9 GEOPHYS RES LETT PY 2004 PD NOV 13 VL 31 IS 21 GA 872EJ UT ISI:000225190200003 ER PT J AU Ziervogel, G Downing, TE TI Stakeholder networks: Improving seasonal climate forecasts SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 Stockholm Environm Inst, Oxford Off, Oxford, England. Univ Cape Town, Dept Environm & Geog Sci, Climate Syst Anal Grp, ZA-7701 Rondebosch, South Africa. RP Ziervogel, G, Stockholm Environm Inst, Oxford Off, Oxford, England. AB In order for a scientific innovation to reach a wide audience it needs to travel through diverse networks and be understandable to a variety of people. This paper focuses on networks of stakeholders involved in the diffusion of seasonal climate forecasts. It is argued that understanding stakeholder networks is key to determining the opportunities and barriers to the flow of forecast information, which could enable more focused forecast dissemination. Lesotho is used as a case study where Stakeholder Thematic Networks (STNs) are used as a novel method for investigating forecast dissemination. STNs enable qualitative information to be analysed through semi-quantitative mapping of relationships that enable the networks and scales of linkages to be visualised. This illustrates the types of nodes and channels of seasonal forecast information flow and so enables existing or emerging patterns of dissemination to be uncovered. Sub-networks that exist for purposes other than climate information dissemination are identified as salient sub-networks for focusing development of future forecast dissemination. These existing sub-networks enable stakeholder needs to be addressed and decrease the need for new networks to be established. By using these sub-networks, information relating to climate variability can be mainstreamed into existing development pathways. This is critical to recognise if innovations relating to climate information are to be used to improve climate change adaptation. CR *MIN NAT RES, 2000, NAT REP CLIM CHANG L AGRAWALA S, 2002, RES SCI TECHNOLOGY S, P45 ARCHER ERM, 2003, B AM METEOROL SOC, V84, P1525 BAKKER K, 1999, 3 SIRCH BASHER R, 2000, COPING CLIMATE WAY F BHARARA LP, 1994, INT ASIENFORUM, V25, P53 BLENCH R, 1999, NATURAL RESOUR PERSP, V47 BOHN LE, 2000, PHYS GEOGR, V21, P57 BROAD K, 2002, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V54, P415 CASTELLS M, 1996, RISE NETWORK SOC CHAKELA QK, 1999, STAT ENV LESOTHO 199 DOWNING TE, 2000, MULT AG BAS SIM 2 IN EAKIN H, 1999, PHYS GEOGR, V20, P447 EAKIN H, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P19 FERGUSON J, 1997, ANTIPOLITICS MACHINE GAY J, 2000, POVERTY LIVELIHOODS GIANSANTE C, 2000, ADAPTIVE RESPONSES H GIBBERD V, 1996, DROUGHT RISK MANAGEM HARRISON MSJ, 1984, S AFR GEOGR J, V66, P47 HORTA K, 1995, ECOLOGIST, V25, P227 HULME M, 1992, INT J ENVIRON STUD, V40, P103 HYDEN L, 2000, WATER SA, V26, P83 JORDAN A, 1995, 9520 CSERGE GEC KLOPPER E, 1999, WATER SA, V25, P311 LANDMAN WA, 2001, INT J CLIMATOL, V21, P1 MAHAJAN V, 1985, QUANTITATIVE APPL SO, V48 MASON SJ, 1996, WATER SA, V22, P203 MASON SJ, 1997, WATER SA, V23, P57 MASON SJ, 1998, INT J CLIMATOL, V18, P147 MITCHELL JC, 1969, SOCIAL NETWORKS URBA MJELDE JW, 1997, METEOROL APPL, V4, P161 MUKHALA E, 2000, SO AFR CLIM OUTL FOR MURPHY AH, 1997, EC VALUE WEATHER CLI, P19 MURPHY SJ, 2001, NAT HAZARDS, V23, P171 OBRIEN KL, 2000, 200003 CICERO ORLOVE B, 1999, APPL SEASONAL INTERA PALMER TN, 1994, Q J ROY METEOR SOC, V120, P755 PATT A, 2002, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V12, P185 PEPIN N, 1996, WEATHER, V51, P242 PFAFF A, 1999, NATURE, V397, P645 PHILLIPS JG, 2001, ASA SPEC P, P87 RAYNER S, 1998, HUMAN CHOICE CLIMATE, V1 ROGERS EM, 1981, COMMUNICATION NETWOR ROGERS EM, 1995, DIFFUSION INNOVATION RONCOLI C, 2000, IRI FOR CLIM PRED AG SCOONES I, 1997, HAZARDS OPPORTUNITIE, P267 SCOTT J, 1991, SOCIAL NETWORK ANAL SIVAKUMAR MVK, 2000, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V103, P11 STACK J, 1998, DROUGHT FORECASTS WA TYSON PD, 1986, CLIMATE CHANGE VARIA VALENTE TW, 1996, SOC NETWORKS, V18, P69 VOGEL C, 2000, S AFRICAN GEOGRAPHIC, V82, P107 WAITES B, 2000, GEOGRAPHY 4, V85, P369 WARD MN, 1998, VERIFICATION 1997 98 WASHINGTON R, 1999, GEOGR J 3, V165, P255 WILKEN G, 1982, AGRO CLIMATIC HAZARD ZIERVOGEL G, IN PRESS GEOGR J ZIERVOGEL G, 2001, OP M GLOB ENV CHANG ZIERVOGEL G, 2003, AREA, V35, P403 NR 59 TC 0 J9 CLIMATIC CHANGE BP 73 EP 101 PY 2004 PD JUL VL 65 IS 1-2 GA 844ZM UT ISI:000223205400004 ER PT J AU Arnell, NW Livermore, MTJ Kovats, RS Levy, PE Nicholls, RJ Parry, ML Gaffin, SR TI Climate and socio-economic scenarios for global-scale climate change impacts assessments: characterising the SRES storylines SO GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS LA English DT Article C1 Univ Southampton, Sch Geog, Southampton SO17 1BJ, Hants, England. Columbia Univ, Ctr Int Earth Sci Informat, Palisades, NY 10964 USA. Univ E Anglia, Jackson Environm Inst, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. Middlesex Univ, Flood Hazard Res Ctr, Enfield EN3 4SF, Middx, England. Ctr Ecol & Hydrol, Penicuik EH26 0QB, Midlothian, Scotland. Univ London London Sch Hyg & Trop Med, Ctr Global Change & Hlth, London WC1E 7HT, England. Univ E Anglia, Climat Res Unit, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. RP Arnell, NW, Univ Southampton, Sch Geog, Southampton SO17 1BJ, Hants, England. AB This paper describes the way in which the socio-economic projections in the SRES scenarios were applied in a global-scale assessment of the impacts of climate change on food security, water stresses, coastal flood risk and wetland loss, exposure to malaria risk and terrestrial ecosystems. There are two key issues: (i) downscaling from the world-region level of the original scenarios to the scale of analysis (0.5degrees x 0.5degrees), and (ii) elaborating the SRES narrative storylines to quantify other indicators affecting the impact of climate change. National estimates of population and GDP were derived by assuming that each country changed at the regional rate, and population was downscaled to the 0.5degrees x 0.5degrees scale assuming that everywhere in a country changed at the same rate. SRES scenarios for future cropland extent were applied to current baseline data, assuming everywhere within a region changed at the same rate. The narrative storylines ;were used to construct scenarios of future adaptation to the coastal flood risk and malaria risk. The paper compares the SRES scenarios with other global-scale scenarios, and identifies sources of uncertainty. It concludes by recommending three refinements to the use of the SRES scenarios in global and regional-scale impact assessment: (i) improved disaggregation to finer spatial resolutions, using both "downscaled narrative storylines" and new technical procedures, (ii) explicit consideration of uncertainty in the population, GDP and land cover characterisations of each storyline, and (iii) use of a wider range of future socio-economic scenarios than provided by SRES if the aim of an impact assessment is to estimate the range of possible future impacts. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 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The research focuses on the perceptions of those associated with climate change policy making in the prairie region of Canada. The data are from an online survey (n = 851) of those policy actors. The analysis integrates several dominant approaches to the study of risk perception: psychometric approaches that examine the effects of cognitive structure; demographic assessments that examine, for example, differences in perception based on gender or family status; and political approaches that suggest that one's position in the policy process may affect his or her perceived risk. Attitudes toward climate change are to a degree predicted by all of these factors, but only when indirect effects are observed. Sociodemographic characteristics have little direct effect on perceived risk, but do affect general beliefs that affect risk perceptions. Perceived risk is related more strongly to these general beliefs or world views than to more specific beliefs about the effects of climate change on weather patterns. Position within the policy process also contributes to our understanding of perceptions, with industry and governmental actors demonstrating similar attitudes, which contrast with environmental groups and university researchers. CR MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 ALDENDEFER MS, 1984, CLUSTER ANAL BEM DJ, 1970, BELIEFS ATTITUDES HU BERNSTEIN S, 2002, POLICY SCI, V35, P203 BORD RJ, 1998, CLIMATE RES, V11, P75 BOSTROM A, 1994, RISK ANAL, V14, P959 DAVIDSON DJ, 1996, ENVIRON BEHAV, V28, P302 DIETZ T, 1989, SOCIOL FORUM, V4, P47 DUNLAP RE, 1978, J ENVIRON EDUC, V9, P10 DUNLAP RE, 1998, INT SOCIOL, V13, P473 FLYNN J, 1994, RISK ANAL, V14, P1101 HERRMANN RO, 2000, J AM DIET ASSOC, V100, P947 KEMPTON W, 1993, ANNU REV ENERG ENV, V18, P217 KRAUS N, 1992, RISK ANAL, V12, P215 LAZO JK, 1999, RISK HLTH SAFETY ENV, V10, P45 LAZO JK, 2000, RISK ANAL, V20, P179 MCDANIELS T, 1995, RISK ANAL, V15, P575 OCONNOR R, 1999, RISK DECISION POLICY, V4, P255 OCONNOR RE, 1999, RISK ANAL, V19, P461 ORIORDAN T, 1999, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V9, P81 PERRON B, 2001, SOC NATUR RESOUR, V14, P837 READ D, 1994, RISK ANAL, V14, P971 REDCLIFT M, 1994, GLOBAL THEORY ENV ROBERTS JT, 1996, SOCIOL INQ, V66, P38 ROKEACH M, 1972, BELIEFS ATTITUDES VA SABATIER PA, 1999, THEORIES POLICY PROC, P117 SAVAGE I, 1993, RISK ANAL, V13, P413 SLOVIC P, 1995, RISK ANAL, V15, P661 SONNENFELD DA, 2002, AM BEHAV SCI, V45, P1318 STERN PC, 1995, ENVIRON BEHAV, V27, P723 WARLAND R, 2003, COMMUNICATION WILENIUS M, 1996, ACTA SOCIOL, V39, P5 NR 32 TC 3 J9 RISK ANAL BP 1395 EP 1406 PY 2004 PD OCT VL 24 IS 5 GA 875ML UT ISI:000225424400027 ER PT J AU Yohe, GW TI Mitigative capacity - The mirror image of adaptive capacity on the emissions side SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Editorial Material C1 Wesleyan Univ, Dept Econ, Middletown, CT 06459 USA. Carnegie Mellon Univ, Ctr Integrated Study Human Dimens Global Change, Pittsburgh, PA 15213 USA. RP Yohe, GW, Wesleyan Univ, Dept Econ, Middletown, CT 06459 USA. CR HOPE C, 1993, ENERG POLICY, V21, P327 KANE SM, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P1 KANE SM, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P75 SMIT B, 1999, MITIGATION ADAPTATIO, V4, P199 SMIT B, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P223 YOHE GW, 2000, CLIMATE CHANGE ITS L NR 6 TC 2 J9 CLIMATIC CHANGE BP 247 EP 262 PY 2001 PD MAY VL 49 IS 3 GA 417AL UT ISI:000167813000001 ER PT J AU BEGOSSI, A TI HUMAN-ECOLOGY - AN OVERVIEW OF THE RELATIONSHIP MAN-ENVIRONMENT SO INTERCIENCIA LA Portuguese DT Review RP BEGOSSI, A, UNICAMP,CP 6166,CAMPINAS,BR-13081 BRASILIA,SP,BRAZIL. AB In this text, the main contemporary research lines in human ecology are presented. The interaction between human populations and the environment is analyzed under the point of view of ecology and related disciplies, such as anthropology. Initially, some aspects of system and evolutionary ecology are described, which, together with other disciplines, form the basis of cultural ecology and related disciplines such as Regarding cultural ecology, the studies of the precursors, with relation to the concepts and methods of cultural ecology and multilineal evolution (J. Steward) as well as the association between consumed energy and cultural complexity (L. White) are described. The work of neofunctionalists, such as M. Harris and R. Rappaport, and of the neoevolutionists, in particular with reference of research carried out in Amazonia is given. Finally, the processal anthropology line, considered as part of cultural ecology, is briefly described. The ethnobiology area includes analysis of popular classification systems, that is how the various cultures perceive, know and classify nature. Regarding ethnobiology, some work by W. Hamilton, E. O. Wilson and R. Trivers, among others, is analyzed, including the concepts of inclusive aptitudes and reciprocal altruism. Models based on ecology, used to analyze human behavior, are also given. These are substance models, utilized in order to understand the procurement of food and models of cultural transmission, which include in particular coevolution among genes and culture, the goal model, and the game theory, among others. The models of cultural transmission can include the concept of cultural similitude and the forces of cultural evolution (R. Boyd and P. Richerson). Finally, aspects of applied ecology with emphasis on population growth and resource availability are discussed. The complementarity of lines of thought and research is worth mentioning, since these include their own questions and methodology. 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INTERCIENCIA BP 121 EP 132 PY 1993 PD MAY-JUN VL 18 IS 3 GA LG224 UT ISI:A1993LG22400002 ER PT J AU Ruddle, K TI The context of policy design for existing community-based fisheries management systems in the Pacific Islands SO OCEAN & COASTAL MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article C1 Kwansei Gakuin Univ, Sch Policy Studies, Kobe, Hyogo, Japan. RP Ruddle, K, Kwansei Gakuin Univ, Sch Policy Studies, Kobe, Hyogo, Japan. AB Community-based fisheries management is being widely promoted as an alternative to centralized systems based on the familiar bioeconomic models that have manifestly failed to prevent a near catastrophic overexploitation of fish stocks worldwide. The Pacific Island Region probably contains the world's greatest concentration of still-functioning traditional community-based systems for managing coastal-marine fisheries and other resources. It has been frequently asserted that many such traditional systems provide both a firm foundation for future coastal fisheries management in the Pacific Islands Region, as well as a conceptual framework for managing fisheries elsewhere. Although now seemingly self-evident to fisheries development "experts", such assertions remain largely unverified. Whereas it is a relatively straightforward task to distil basic "design principles" from a sample of systems, it is far more complex to analyze the multi-sectoral national environment in which they function, especially when their history is taken into account. In other words, it is far less widely appreciated that many contemporary community-based fisheries management systems are the end products of a long process of change and adaptation to external pressures and constraints. In this article I address some of the broader contextual issues that should be appreciated in policymaking with respect to a potential modern role for traditional management systems in general, and in the analysis of a future role for any given system. First, the principal external factors that have caused change in systems are described and exemplified. The recognition of the potential role of existing community-based fisheries systems, and attempts to act on it: is summarized for some Pacific Island nations, with a focus on the complex problem of reconciling customary and statutory legal systems. In the final section I examine three principal national policy alternatives regarding the potential role of existing local fisheries management systems, together with three main criteria for determining whether or not a system can be adapted to fulfill modern requirements. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. 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Norwegian Meteorol Inst, N-0313 Oslo, Norway. SINTEF Bldg & Infrastruct, N-7491 Trondheim, Norway. Norwegian Univ Sci & Technol, Dept Civil & Transport Engn, N-7491 Trondheim, Norway. RP Liso, KR, SINTEF Bldg & Infrastruct, POB 124 Blindern, N-0314 Oslo, Norway. AB The relationship between building materials, structures and climate is complex and there is an urgent need for more accurate methods to assess building performance. For example, the lifetime of wooden cladding is strongly dependent on the local-level climatic impact. A national map of the potential for decay in wood structures in Norway is presented based on Scheffer's climate index formula. Weather data are used from 115 observing stations for the reference 30-year period 1961-90. The climate index distribution allows for geographically differentiated guidelines on protective measures. Detailed scenarios for climate change for selected locations in Norway are used to provide an indication of the possible future development of decay rates. Climate indices allowing for the quantitative assessment of building enclosure performance may be an important element in the development of adaptation measures to meet the future risks of climate change in different parts of the world. Established quantified relations between climatic impact and material behaviour or building performance can be used as a tool for the evaluation of the need for changes in functional requirements. The presented work represents an example of a first step towards such measures. Ways to improve the reliability of the index further are also suggested. CR *NORW BUILD RES I, 1997, BUILD RES SER BENESTAD RE, 2005, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V32 BIRKELAND O, 1963, RAIN PENETRATION INV ISAKSEN T, 1966, 119 NORW BUILD RES I LISO KR, IN PRESS BUILDING RE, V34, P1 LISO KR, 2003, BUILD RES INF, V31, P200 LISO KR, 2003, RES BUILDING PHYS, P309 LISO KR, 2005, BUILD RES INF, V33, P41 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 NORE K, 2006, P 3 INT BUILD PHYS S SCHEFFER TC, 1963, FOREST PROD J, V13, P7 SCHEFFER TC, 1971, FOREST PROD J, V21, P25 SEDLBAUER K, 2001, THESIS U STUTTGART S SETLIFF EC, 1986, FOR CHRON OCT, P456 NR 14 TC 0 J9 BUILDING RES INFORM BP 546 EP 551 PY 2006 PD NOV-DEC VL 34 IS 6 GA 115ZN UT ISI:000242772400003 ER PT J AU Abel, T Stepp, JR TI A new ecosystems ecology for anthropology SO CONSERVATION ECOLOGY LA English DT Editorial Material C1 Univ Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611 USA. RP Abel, T, Univ Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611 USA. 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RP Adger, WN, Univ E Anglia, Sch Environm Sci, Tyndall Ctr Climate Change Res, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. AB This paper reviews research traditions of vulnerability to environmental change and the challenges for present vulnerability research in integrating with the domains of resilience and adaptation. Vulnerability is the state of susceptibility to harm from exposure to stresses associated with environmental and social change and from the absence of capacity to adapt. Antecedent traditions include theories of vulnerability as entitlement failure and theories of hazard. Each of these areas has contributed to present formulations of vulnerability to environmental change as a characteristic of social-ecological systems linked to resilience. Research on vulnerability to the impacts of climate change spans all the antecedent and successor traditions. The challenges for vulnerability research are to develop robust and credible measures, to incorporate diverse methods that include perceptions of risk and vulnerability, and to incorporate governance research on the mechanisms that mediate vulnerability and promote adaptive action and resilience. These challenges are common to the domains of vulnerability, adaptation and resilience and form common ground for consilience and integration. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 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AB D.E. Arnold has argued that contemporary ceramic production in Quinua, Ayacucho, Peru, is ''an adaptation to the marginal agricultural environment in which people began to maximize the use of nonagricultural resources.'' On the basis of the Quinua data, Arnold has stated that during the prehistoric Middle Horizon period, ceramic production in the Ayacucho Valley may have been due to the same factor since Quinua is located near the ancient city of Wari, an area with ''sufficient quantity and diversity of ceramic resources'' and thus ecologically favorable for Pottery making However, the existence of present-day pottery-making communities in areas of rich agricultural resources challenges Arnold's conclusions. Similarly, archaeological evidence from the Ayacucho Valley conflicts with Arnold's ecological characterization of ceramic production in Ayacucho. 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RP Ayyad, MA, Univ Alexandria, Fac Sci, Dept Environm Sci, Alexandria 21511, Egypt. AB The rating of biodiversity in and and semiarid regions on the basis of ecological function and genetic traits of adaptation to severe environmental stresses produces significantly higher values, than that based solely on the commonly applied structural criteria of forms of life and levels of organization. The indirect driving forces of biodiversity impoverishment listed in the Global Biodiversity Strategy that are particularly effective in and and semi-arid regions are (a) population growth, (b) economic systems and policies that fail to value the environment and its natural resources; (c) inequity in the ownership, management and flow of benefits from both the use and conservation of biological resources;, and (d) weakness in legal and institutional systems. The most effective direct human impacts are (a) habitat destruction and fragmentation, (b) overexploitation of biological resources, (c) biological invasion, and (d) agriculture. The problem in and and semiarid regions, particularly in developing countries, is exacerbated by the lack of knowledge and awareness, the paucity of research, and the diminishing number of competent systematists. This paper discusses the theoretical and practical aspects of each of the indirect driving forces, and the direct human impacts on biodiversity, and reviews case studies related to these impacts, with special reference to those carried out in and and semiarid regions. These studies include monitoring of the human impact on land cover by remote sensing, effects of landuse on species diversity, impact of habitat fragmentation by summer resorts on coastal dunes, consequences of protection from grazing on biodiversity, comparison of biodiversity in nature reserves and the traditional hema system with that of nearby territories, and the impact of desertification on animal life and endangered species. Case studies also include the tools applied for biodiversity conservation in and and semiarid lands with special emphasis on endangered species, restoration of degraded habitats and their biodiversity, the significance of nature reserves and captive breeding, the importance of conserving the populations below the species level throughout their geographical range of distribution, and ecotonal biodiversity. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. 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Virginia Dept Histor Resources, Richmond, VA USA. Univ Coll Dublin, Sch Biol & Environm Sci, Coll Life Sci, Dublin 4, Ireland. RP Louwagie, G, Univ Ghent, Lab Soil Sci, Krijgslaan 281-S8, B-9000 Ghent, Belgium. AB Land evaluation was applied to assess the productivity of sweet potato, taro, yam, sugar cane, and banana during the prehistoric period on Rapa Nui (1500-1700 AD). Pedological and ethno-archaeological fieldwork enabled an estimation of prehistoric data. Twelve soil profiles distributed over four sites, Akahanga, La Perouse, Tepeu, and Vaitea, were selected as land evaluation units. Six soil types, classified following the traditional Rapanui soil capability classification, served as test units. The land evaluation model took spatial and temporal precipitation variability, along with anthropogenic response, into account. Easter Island temperature and precipitation were assessed as close to optimal for sweet potato, rather moderate for banana and almost marginal for taro, yam and sugar cane. Dominant other limiting factors for moderate to marginal suitability were nutrient availability associated with andic soil properties and water availability following temporary precipitation deficit. Technical and organisational responses to these variables could have included lithic mulch, land use planning and supervision of food production. These adaptive strategies would have reduced the effect of climate variation and spread the risk of decreased yields. This rationale allows an understanding why prehistoric Rapanui people continued to produce well above the subsistence minimum, even under moderate or marginal production conditions. (c) 2005 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. 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RP Stakhiv, EZ, USA,CROPS ENGN INST WATER RESOURCES,7701 TELEG RD,ALEXANDRIA,VA 22315. AB This paper considers ecosystem evaluation under conditions of climate change in the context both of the U.S. Water Resources Council's Principles and Guidelines (P&G) and the more general Federal regulations governing environmental evaluation. Federal water agencies have responsibilities for protecting aquatic ecosystems through their regulatory programs and operations and planning missions. The primary concern of water resources and aquatic ecosystems planning in the United States is on the riparian or floodplain corridors of river systems. In the context of climate change, planning for these systems focusses on adaptation options both for current climate variability and for that engendered by potential climate change. Ecosystems appear to be highly vulnerable to climate change, as described in IPCC reports. Aquatic ecosystems are likely to be doubly affected, first by thermally induced changes of global warming and second by changes in the hydrologic regime. Perhaps as much as any of the issues dealt with in this issue, the evaluation of ecosystems is linked to fundamental questions of criteria as well as to the details of the Federal environmental planning system. That system is a densely woven, interlocking system of environmental protection legislation, criteria and regulations that includes a self-contained evaluation system driven by the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) procedural guidelines (United States Council on Environmental Quality, 1978) and Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) requirements. The Corps of Engineers must use both the P&G and the NEPA/EIS system in discharging its responsibilities. If U.S. Federal agencies are to take the lead in formulating and evaluating adaptation options, there needs to be a reexamination of existing evaluation approaches. Among the elements of the P&G that may require rethinking in view of the prospects of global climate change are those relating to risk and uncertainty, nonstationarity, interest rates, and multiple objectives. Within the government planning process, efforts must be made to resolve inconsistencies and constraints in order to permit the optimal evaluation of water-based ecosystems under global climate change. The interrelationships of the two systems are described in this paper, and alternative ways of viewing the planning process are discussed. Strategic planning and management at the watershed level provides an effective approach to many of the issues. Current NEPA/EIS impact analysis does not provide a suitable framework for environmental impact analysis under climate uncertainty, and site-specific water resources evaluation relating to climate change appears difficult at current levels of knowledge about climate change. The IPCC Technical Guidelines, however, provide a useful beginning for assessing the impacts of future climate states. 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FAO, Forest Conservat Res & Educ Serv, I-00100 Rome, Italy. Univ Catolica Norte, Inst Invest Arqueolog & Museu, San Pedro de Atacama, Chile. Univ Bern, Hist Inst, Dept Econ Social & Environm Hist, Unitobler, CH-3000 Bern, Switzerland. RP Messerli, B, Univ Bern, Inst Geog, Hallerstr 12, CH-3012 Bern, Switzerland. AB To what extent is it realistic and useful to view human history as a sequence of changes from highly vulnerable societies of hunters and gatherers through periods with less vulnerable, well buffered and highly productive agrarian-urban societies to a world with regions of extreme overpopulation and overuse of life support systems, so that vulnerability to climatic-environmental changes and extreme events is again increasing? This question cannot be fully answered in our present state of knowledge, but at least we can try to illustrate, with three case studies from different continents, time periods and ecosystems, some fundamental changes in the relationship between natural processes and human activities that occur, as we pass from a nature-dominated to a human dominated environment. 1. Early-mid Holocene: Nature dominated environment - human adaptation, mitigation, and migration. In the central Andes, the Holocene climate changed from humid (10,800-8000 BP) to extreme arid (8000-3600 BP) conditions. Over the same period, prehistoric hunting communities adopted a more sedentary pattern of resource use by settling close to the few perennial water bodies, where they began the process of domesticating camelids around 5000 BP and irrigation from about 3100 BP. 2. Historical period: An agrarian society in transition from an "enduring" to an innovative human response. Detailed documentary evidence from Western Europe may be used to reconstruct quite precisely the impacts of climatic variations on agrarian societies. The period considered spans a major transition from an apparently passive response to the vagaries of the environment during the 16th century to an active and innovative attitude from the onset of the agrarian revolution in the late 18th century through to the present day. The associated changes in technology and in agricultural practices helped to create a society better able to survive the impact of climatic extremes. 3. The present day: A human dominated environment with increasing vulnerability of societies and economies to extreme events and natural variability. The third example, dealing with the history and impact of floods in Bangladesh, shows the increasing vulnerability of an over-exploited and human-dominated ecosystem. Measurements exist for a short time only (decades), historical data allow a prolongation of the record into the last century, and paleo-research provides the long-term record of processes operating over millennia. The long-term paleo-perspective is essential for a better understanding of future potential impacts on an increasingly human-dominated environment. Understanding today's global change processes calls for several new perspectives and synergisms: the integration of biophysically oriented climate change research with research about the increasingly dominant processes of human forcing, a focus on overexploited or limited natural resources and on vulnerable and critical regions, fuller use of our understanding of variability on a range of different timescales:"The present without a past has no future". (C) 1999 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. 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Arizona State Univ, Sch Life Sci, Tempe, AZ 85287 USA. Arizona State Univ, Sch Human Evolut & Social Change, Tempe, AZ 85287 USA. Arizona State Univ, Sch Geog Sci, Tempe, AZ 85287 USA. Arizona State Univ, Coll Architecture & Environm Design, Tempe, AZ 85287 USA. Univ Michigan, Taubman Coll Architecture & Urban Planning, Ann Arbor, MI 48109 USA. Lyndon B Johnson Space Ctr, Image Sci & Anal Lab, Houston, TX 77059 USA. Univ Arizona, Ecol & Evolutionary Biol Dept, Tucson, AZ 85721 USA. RP Jenerette, GD, Ohio State Univ, Sch Nat Resources, 2021 Coffey Rd, Columbus, OH 43201 USA. AB Regional climate change induced by rapid urbanization is responsible for and may result from changes in coupled human-ecological systems. Specifically, the distribution of urban vegetation may be an important intermediary between patterns of human settlement and regional climate spatial variability. To test this hypothesis we identified the relationships between surface temperature, one component of regional climate, vegetation, and human settlement patterns in the Phoenix, AZ, USA region. Combining satellite-derived surface temperature and vegetation data from an early summer day with US Census and topographic data, we found substantial surface temperature differences within the city that correlate primarily with an index of vegetation cover. Furthermore, both of these patterns vary systematically with the social characteristics of neighborhoods through the region. Overall, every $10,000 increase in neighborhood annual median household income was associated with a 0.28 degrees C decrease in surface temperature on an early summer day in Phoenix. Temperature variation within a neighborhood was negatively related to population density. A multivariate model generated using path analysis supports our hypothesis that social impacts on surface temperature occur primarily through modifications of vegetation cover. Higher income neighborhoods were associated with increased vegetation cover and higher density neighborhoods were associated with decreased vegetation variability. These results suggest that settlement patterns in the central Arizona region influence regional climate through multiple pathways that are heterogeneously distributed throughout the city. 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Univ Cape Town, Dept Bot, Inst Plant Conservat, ZA-7701 Rondebosch, South Africa. RP Le Maitre, DC, CSIR, POB 320, ZA-7599 Stellenbosch, South Africa. AB Invasive alien plants pose a substantial threat to the rich biodiversity of South Africa, and to the sustained delivery of a wide range of ecosystem services. Biological invasions are driven by human activities and mediated by culturally shaped values and ethics. This paper explores the human dimensions of alien plant invasions in South Africa. We consider four primary forces, those which directly influence the likelihood and rate of invasion - arrival of propagules; changes in disturbance regimes; changes in the availability of limiting factors; and fragmentation of the landscape - and the roles of 22 secondary driving forces in shaping the outcomes of the four primary driving forces. Human societies and their dynamics and activities are an integral part of each of the secondary driving forces. A map of the interactions between and among the primary and secondary driving forces shows how they are interlinked and influence each other-either positively or negatively, or switching between the two. There are two key points for intervention: prevention of the introduction of propagules of potentially invasive species and developing collaborative initiatives with enterprises that rely largely on alien species (for example, horticulture, agriculture and forestry, including community forestry) to minimize the introduction and use of potentially invasive species. An example of the first type of intervention would be to implement more effective inspection systems at international border and customs posts. This type of intervention can only be effective if those who are directly affected-whether businessmen, tourists or migrants - understand the requirement for these measures, and collaborate. The need to build public awareness of the critical importance of the human dimension of invasions emerges as a key theme from this analysis and is the basis for better-informed decisions, more effective control programmes and a reduction of further invasions. 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V53 WHITESIDE A, 2000, AIDS CHALLENGE S AFR WILKINSON L, 1995, WIRED SCENARIOS, P74 WITTENBERG R, 2001, INVASIVE ALIEN SPECI WYNBERG R, 2002, S AFR J SCI, V98, P233 ZIMMERMANN HG, 2004, S AFR J SCI, V100, P34 NR 129 TC 1 J9 S AFR J SCI BP 103 EP 112 PY 2004 PD JAN-FEB VL 100 IS 1 GA 816OX UT ISI:000221120300023 ER PT J AU PERSOON, G TI THE KUBU AND THE OUTSIDE WORLD (SOUTH SUMATRA, INDONESIA) - THE MODIFICATION OF HUNTING AND GATHERING SO ANTHROPOS LA English DT Article RP PERSOON, G, LEIDEN STATE UNIV,CTR ENVIRONM STUDIES,PROGRAMME ENVIRONM & DEV,2312 AV LEIDEN,NETHERLANDS. CR 1901, INDISCHE GIDS, V23, P208 *DEP SOS, 1973, SURV SUK AN DAL AIR *DEP SOS, 1974, SURV SUK AN DAL AIR *DEP SOS, 1982, STUD PLANN ADM TRIB *DEP SOS, 1984, PEMP MAS TER DAL PEM *DEP SOS, 1985, PEL IAT KETR MAS TER BARTH F, 1956, AM ANTHROPOL, V58, P1079 BELLWOOD P, 1985, PREHISTORY INDOMALAY BOERS JW, 1838, TIJDSCHRIFT NEDERLAN, V1, P286 DUNN FL, 1975, RAIN FOREST COLLECTO ELKIN AP, 1951, AM ANTHROPOL, V53, P164 ELLEN R, 1982, ENV SUBSISTENCE SYST FOX RG, 1969, MAN INDIA, V49, P139 HAGEN B, 1908, ORANG KUBU SUMATRA HEADLAND TN, 1986, FORAGERS NOT BECOME HOFFMAN CL, 1981, BORNEO RES B, V13, P71 HOFFMAN CL, 1982, BORNEO RES B, V15, P30 HOFFMAN CL, 1983, THESIS PENNSYLVANIA HUTTERER KL, 1976, CURR ANTHROPOL, V17, P221 JOCHIM MA, 1981, STRATEGIES SURVIVAL KIKUCHI Y, 1984, MINDORO HIGHLANDERS LEACOCK R, 1982, POLTIICS HIST BAND S LEE RB, 1968, MAN HUNTER PETERSON JT, 1978, AM ANTHROPOL, V80, P335 PETERSON JT, 1981, HUM ECOL, V9, P1 RAMBO AT, 1982, TOO RAPID RURAL DEV, P251 RAPPAPORT RA, 1967, PIGS ANCESTORS RITUA, V1, P1 REYNOLDS H, 1982, OTHER SIDE FRONTIER SAHLINS M, 1974, STONE AGE EC SANDBUKT O, IN PRESS RRES EC ANT, V10 SANDBUKT O, 1984, ASIAN FOLKLORE STUD, V42, P85 SCHEBESTA P, 1926, MITTEILUNGEN ANTHR G, V56, P192 SCHEBESTA P, 1928, ORANG UTAN BEI URWAL SINHA DP, 1972, HUNTERS GATHERERS TO, P371 TURNBULL CM, 1965, WAYWARD SERVANTS 2 W VANDERGRACHT WAJ, 1915, TIJDSCHRIFT KONINKLI, V32, P219 VANDONGEN GJ, 1906, TIJDSCHRIFT BINNENLA, V30, P225 VANDONGEN GJ, 1931, BIJDRAGEN TOT TAAL L, V88, P519 VANEERDE JC, 1929, FEESTBUNDEL 150 JARI, V1, P93 VOLZ W, 1909, ARCH ANTHR, V3, P89 VOLZ W, 1911, PETERMANNS MITTEILUN, V57, P288 VOLZ W, 1922, DAMMER RIMBA SUMATRA VROKLAGE B, 1946, ANTHROPOS, V41, P41 WOODBURN J, 1980, SOVIET W ANTHR, P95 NR 44 TC 1 J9 ANTHROPOS BP 507 EP 519 PY 1989 VL 84 IS 4-6 GA AU943 UT ISI:A1989AU94300010 ER PT J AU Davidson, DJ Williamson, T Parkins, JR TI Understanding climate change risk and vulnerability in northern forest-based communities SO CANADIAN JOURNAL OF FOREST RESEARCH-REVUE CANADIENNE DE RECHERCHE FORESTIERE LA English DT Article C1 Univ Alberta, Dept Rural Econ, Edmonton, AB T6G 2H1, Canada. Canadian Forest Serv, No Forestry Ctr, Edmonton, AB T6H 3S5, Canada. Univ Alberta, Dept Sociol, Edmonton, AB T6G 2H1, Canada. RP Davidson, DJ, Univ Alberta, Dept Rural Econ, Edmonton, AB T6G 2H1, Canada. AB Much research attention regarding climate change has been focused on the macrophysical and, to a lesser extent, the macrosocial features of this phenomenon. An important step in mitigation and adaptation will be to examine the ways that climate change risks manifest themselves in particular social localities. Certain social groups may be at greater risk, not solely because of their geographic location in a region of high climate sensitivity but also because of economic, political, and cultural characteristics. Combining the insights of economics and sociology, we provide an ideal-type model of northern forest-based communities that suggests that these communities may represent a particularized social context in regard to climate change. Although scientific research indicates that northern forest ecosystems are among those regions at greatest risk to the impacts of climate change, the social dimensions of these communities indicate both a limited community capacity and a limited potential to perceive climate change as a salient risk issue that warrants action. Five features of forest-based communities describe this context in further detail: (i) the constraints on adaptability in rural, resource-dependent communities to respond to risk in a proactive manner, (H) the national and international identification of deforestation as a central causal mechanism in the political arena, (iii) the nature of commercial forestry investment planning and management decision-making, (iv) the potential by members of these communities to underestimate the risk associated with climate change, and (v) the multiplicity of climate change risk factors in forest-based communities. CR *BRIT COL MIN WAT, 2002, IND CLIM CHANG BRIT *INT PAN CLIM CHAN, 1996, 2 INT PAN CLIM CHANG *INT PAN CLIM CHAN, 2001, 3 INT PAN CLIM CHANG *ROYAL SOC, 1992, RISK AN PERC MAN APEDAILE LP, 1992, RURAL SMALL TOWN CAN BEAMISH TD, 2000, SOC PROBL, V47, P473 BEAMISH TD, 2001, ORGAN ENVIRON, V14, P5 BECK U, 1995, ECOLOGICAL POLITICS BECK U, 1999, WORLD RISK SOC BOHOLM A, 1996, ETHNOS, V61, P64 BOSTROM A, 1994, RISK ANAL, V14, P959 CARSON RT, 1995, J ENVIRON ECON MANAG, V28, P155 CHASKIN RJ, 2001, URBAN AFF REV, V36, P291 CHICHILNISKY G, 1993, J ECON PERSPECT, V7, P65 CLARKE L, 1993, RES SOCIAL PROBLEMS, V5, P289 CUTTER SL, 1993, LIVING RISK GEOGRAPH DAVIDSON DJ, 1996, ENVIRON BEHAV, V28, P302 DICKENS P, 1992, 86 U SUSS CTR URB RE DOUGLAS M, 1982, RISK CULTURE ESSAY S DOWNING TE, 1999, CLIMATE CHANGE RISK DUNK T, 1994, CAN REV SOC ANTHROP, V31, P14 DUNLAP RE, 1991, PUBLIC OPIN QUART, V55, P651 DUNLAP RE, 1998, INT SOCIOL, V13, P473 EPP R, 2001, WRITING OFF RURAL W, P301 ERIKSON KT, 1976, EVERYTHING ITS PATH FREUDENBURG WR, 1992, RURAL SOCIOL, V57, P305 FREUDENBURG WR, 1993, SOC FORCES, V71, P909 GRAMLING R, 1997, CURR SOCIOL, V45, P41 HEBDA RJ, 1997, RESPONDING GLOBAL CL IRWIN A, 1999, ENVIRON PLANN A, V31, P1311 JAEGER C, 1993, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V23, P193 JOHNSON BL, 2001, HUM ECOL RISK ASSESS, V7, P221 KAHNEMAN D, 1992, J ENVIRON ECON MANAG, V22, P55 KELLY PM, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V47, P325 KEMPTON W, 1991, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V1, P183 KEMPTON W, 1995, ENV VALUES AM CULTUR KHARIN VV, 2000, J CLIMATE, V13, P3760 KOVACS PJE, 2001, ISUMA, P57 LEISS W, 1994, RISK RESPONSIBILITY MCDANIELS T, 1996, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V6, P159 OCONNOR RE, 1999, RISK ANAL, V19, P461 PODUR J, 2002, CAN J FOREST RES, V32, P195 READ D, 1994, RISK ANAL, V14, P971 ROGERS GO, 1997, RISK ANAL, V17, P745 ROSA EA, 1998, J RISK RES, V1, P15 SAPORTA R, 1998, CANADA COUNTRY STUDY, V7, P319 SINGH T, 1991, FOREST CHRON, V67, P342 SLOVIC P, 1987, SCIENCE, V236, P280 SMIT B, 2002, ENHANCING CAPACITY D STARR C, 1969, SCIENCE, V165, P1232 TORRY WI, 1983, SOCIAL SCI RES CLIMA TUCKER M, 1997, ECOL ECON, V22, P85 VISCUSI WK, 1987, RAND J ECON, V18, P465 VYNER HM, 1988, INVISIBILITY TRAUMA WHYTE AVT, 1985, CLIMATE IMPACT ASSES, P403 WILKINSON I, 2001, CURR SOCIOL, V49, P1 NR 56 TC 0 J9 CAN J FOREST RES BP 2252 EP 2261 PY 2003 PD NOV VL 33 IS 11 GA 743DZ UT ISI:000186558300022 ER PT J AU TOBEY, JA TI ECONOMIC-ISSUES IN GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE SO GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS LA English DT Article RP TOBEY, JA, USDA,ECON RES SERV,1301 NEW YORK AVE NW,WASHINGTON,DC 20005. AB The author highlights the critical role of economics in understanding the potential magnitude of global climate change as a problem for human society and for assessing and developing effective responses. It is shown that many of the basic economic tools and techniques needed to address global climate change issues are already found in the existing environmental and natural resource economics literature. However, in the application of economic concepts to climate change problems, much work remains. It is suggested that priority areas for future economic research include analysis of the impacts and the adaptation of economic systems, the value of information and decision making under uncertainty, and the development of world models of the economy that aid in understanding and predicting the sources and effects of global change that are linked to economic activity. NR 0 TC 3 J9 GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANGE BP 215 EP 228 PY 1992 PD SEP VL 2 IS 3 GA JQ885 UT ISI:A1992JQ88500004 ER PT J AU Mendelsohn, R Dinar, A Williams, L TI The distributional impact of climate change on rich and poor countries SO ENVIRONMENT AND DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS LA English DT Article C1 Yale Sch Forestry & Environm Studies, New Haven, CT 06511 USA. World Bank, Washington, DC 20433 USA. Elect Power Res Inst, Palo Alto, CA 94303 USA. RP Mendelsohn, R, Yale Sch Forestry & Environm Studies, 230 Prospect St, New Haven, CT 06511 USA. AB This paper examines the impact of climate change on rich and poor countries across the world. We measure two indices of the relative impact of climate across countries, impact per capita, and impact per GDP. These measures sum market impacts across the climate-sensitive economic sectors of each country. Both indices reveal that climate change will have serious distributional impact across countries, grouped by income per capita. We predict that poor countries Will suffer the bulk of the damages from climate change. Although adaptation, wealth, and technology may influence distributional consequences across countries, we argue that the primary reason that poor countries are so vulnerable is their location. Countries in the low latitudes start with very high temperatures. Further Warming pushed these countries ever further away from optimal temperatures for climate-sensitive economic sectors. CR *WORLD BANK GROUP, 2002, WORLD DEV IND 2002 ADAMS R, 1999, EC IMPACT CLIMATE CH ARROW KJ, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, P125 AZAR C, 1999, ENVIRON RESOUR ECON, V13, P249 BARRO RJ, 1997, DETERMINANTS EC GROW BARRO RJ, 2004, EC GROWTH BLOOM DE, 1998, BROOKINGS PAPERS EC, V2, P207 BOER GJ, 2000, CLIM DYNAM, V16, P427 EASTERLY W, 1997, Q J ECON, V112, P1203 EMORI S, 1999, J METEOROL SOC JPN, V77, P1299 FANKHAUSER S, 1995, VALUING CLIMATE CHAN FANKHAUSER S, 1997, ENVIRON RESOUR ECON, V10, P249 HOUGHTON J, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 HOUGHTON JT, 1994, CLIMATE CHANGE 1994 HURD BH, 1999, EC IMPACT CLIMATE CH JEPMA CJ, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, P225 KURUKURASURIYA P, 2003, CLIMATE CHANGE SERIE, V91 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 MENDELSOHN R, 1994, AM ECON REV, V84, P753 MENDELSOHN R, 1999, AMBIO, V28, P362 MENDELSOHN R, 1999, IMPACT CLIMATE CHANG MENDELSOHN R, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P553 MENDELSOHN R, 2000, INTEGRATED ASSESS, V1, P37 MENDELSOHN R, 2001, ENVIRON DEV ECON 1, V6, P85 MENDELSOHN R, 2001, GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANG, P92 MENDELSOHN R, 2001, GLOBAL WARMING AM EC NEUMANN JE, 2001, GLOBAL WARMING AM EC, P132 NG WS, 2005, ENVIRON DEV ECON 2, V10, P201 NORDHAUS WD, 1991, ECON J, V101, P920 PEARCE D, 2003, OXFORD REV ECON POL, V19, P362 PEARCE DW, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, P179 REILLY JM, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, P427 ROSENZWEIG C, 1994, NATURE, V367, P133 SCHELLING TC, 1992, AM ECON REV, V82, P1 SMITH JB, 1990, POTENTIAL EFFECTS GL SOHNGEN B, 2002, J AGR RESOUR ECON, V26, P326 SOLOW RM, 1956, Q J ECON, V70, P65 TOL RSJ, 1995, ENVIRON RESOUR ECON, V5, P353 TOL RSJ, 2001, ECOL ECON, V36, P71 TOL RSJ, 2002, ENVIRON RESOUR ECON, V21, P47 WASHINGTON WM, 2000, CLIM DYNAM, V16, P755 WILLIAMS LJ, 1998, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V39, P111 NR 42 TC 0 J9 ENVIRON DEV ECON BP 159 EP 178 PY 2006 PD APR VL 11 GA 034CS UT ISI:000236903000001 ER PT J AU Winkler, H Baumert, K Blanchard, O Burch, S Robinson, JB TI What factors influence mitigative capacity? SO ENERGY POLICY LA English DT Article C1 Univ Cape Town, Energy Res Ctr, ZA-7701 Rondebosch, South Africa. World Resources Inst, Washington, DC 20006 USA. Int Energie & Polit Environm, Lab Econ Prod & Integrat, Grenoble, France. Univ British Columbia, Vancouver, BC V5Z 1M9, Canada. RP Winkler, H, Univ Cape Town, Energy Res Ctr, Private Bag, ZA-7701 Rondebosch, South Africa. AB This article builds on Yohe's seminal piece on mitigative capacity, which elaborates 'determinants' of mitigative capacity, also reflected in the IPCC's third assessment report. We propose a revised definition, where mitigative capacity is a country's ability to reduce anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions or enhance natural sinks. By "ability" we mean skills, competencies, fitness, and proficiencies that a country has attained which can contribute to GHG emissions mitigation. A conceptual framework is proposed, linking mitigative capacity to a country's sustainable development path, and grouping the factors influencing mitigative capacity into three main sets: economic factors, institutional ones, and technology. Both quantitative and qualitative analysis of factors is presented, showing how these factors vary across countries. We suggest that it is the interplay between the three economic factors-income, abatement cost and opportunity cost-that shape mitigative capacity. We find that income is an important economic factor influencing mitigative capacity, while abatement cost is important in turning mitigative capacity into actual mitigation. Technology is a critical mitigative capacity, including the ability to absorb existing climate-friendly technologies or to develop innovative ones. Institutional factors that promote mitigative capacity include the effectiveness of government regulation, clear market rules, a skilled work force and public awareness. We briefly investigate such as high abatement cost or lack of political willingness that prevent mitigative capacity from being translated into mitigation. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 *IPCC, 2001, CLIM CHANG 2001 MIT *IPCC, 2001, CLIM CHANG 2001 SYNT *UN MILL PROJ, 2004, INT REP TASK FORC 10 *UNFCCC, 1992, UN FRAM CONV CLIM CH *UNFCCC, 1997, KYOT PROT UN FRAM CO *WRI, 2003, CLIM AN IND TOOL CAI *WRI, 2005, CLIM AN IND TOOL CAI AZAR C, 2002, ECOL ECON, V42, P73 BANURI T, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, P74 BLANCHARD O, 2000, ECON INTEGRATION, P75 BLANCHARD O, 2002, BUILDING KYOTO PROTO, P203 BLANCHARD O, 2005, TECHNOLOGICAL CAPACI BODANSKY D, 2004, INT CLIMATE EFFORTS BURCH S, 2005, 6 OP M HUM DIM GLOB CAVENDERBARES J, 2001, LEARNING MANAGE GLOB, V1 DAVIDSON O, 2002, DEV ENERGY SOLUTIONS, P145 DECANIO SJ, 2000, NEW DIRECTIONS EC IN GRUBB M, 2004, INT REV ENV STRATEGI, V5, P15 GUPTA S, 1999, ENERG POLICY, V27, P727 HALSNAES K, 1998, EC GREENHOUSE GAS LI HELLER TC, 2003, DEV CLIMATE ENGAGING HOHNE N, 2004, OPTIONS 2 COMMITMENT HOURCADE JC, 1996, ENERG POLICY, V24, P863 LINDQUIST L, 1980, HARE TORTOISE CLEAN LIVERMAN DM, 2001, LEARNING MANAGE GLOB MUNASINGHE M, 2005, PRIMER CLIMATE CHANG NORDHAUS WD, 1993, RESOUR ENERGY ECON, V15, P27 NORGAARD RB, 1994, DEV BETRAYED END PRO PAN J, 2002, UNDERSTANDING HUMAN PORTER RB, 1991, FOREIGN EC POLICY MA RICHARDSON J, 1985, NATL POLICY STYLES E ROBINSON JB, 2006, AMBIO, V35, P2 SATTERFIELD TA, 2004, RISK ANAL, V24, P115 SHUKLA PR, 2002, CLIMATE CHANGE MITIG SWART RJ, 2003, CLIM POLICY S1, V3, S19 WEYANT JP, 1999, ENERGY J, R7 WINKLER H, 2002, BUILDING KYOTO PROTO, P61 WINKLER H, 2005, CLIM POLICY, V5, P209 YOHE GW, 2001, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V49, P247 NR 40 TC 0 J9 ENERG POLICY BP 692 EP 703 PY 2007 PD JAN VL 35 IS 1 GA 111LH UT ISI:000242452600061 ER PT J AU O'Hare, G TI Climate change and the temple of sustainable development SO GEOGRAPHY LA English DT Article C1 Univ Derby, Geog Div, Derby DE22 2NE, England. RP O'Hare, G, Univ Derby, Geog Div, Kedleston Rd, Derby DE22 2NE, England. AB For many poor and marginalised groups living in the developing world, the notion of sustainable development as a realisable working concept remains ajar off dream. This is because zip till now the developed countries have not shown the political will to implement long-lasting and sustainable poverty alleviation measures to raise living standards for the worlds poorest societies. The use of the concept also seems inappropriate with respect to communities and systems faced with the devastating effect of frequent or prolonged climate hazards. Evidence from this article shows that such communities, whether existing in the flood plains of England and Wales (flood hazard) or along the hurricane coast of eastern India (storm hazard), struggle to maintain their lifestyles and standards of living. An important issue here concerns the availability of physical, economic and institutional resources employed to combat the effects of the climate hazard and to reduce the vulnerability of high-risk communities and groups exposed to them. This article shows that when these resources are lacking, the adaptive capacities of local communities to cope with the effects of severe climate impacts declines. The result is that community development levels either suffer a long-term fall, especially if the climate event is frequent or prolonged enough, or are maintained at a level much lower than they would otherwise be in the absence of the external climate stimuli. If the principles of sustainable development are to be realised for such hazard-prone communities, then the inclusion of climate risks in the design and implementation of development programmes is a necessary first step. CR AGARWAL B, 1990, J PEASANT STUD, V17, P341 BOARDMAN J, 2000, GUARDIAN 1108 BURT S, 2001, WEATHER, V56, P139 BURTHON I, 1993, ENV HAZARD CANNELL MGR, 1999, INDICATORS CLIMATE C COMFORT L, 1999, ENV HAZARDS, V1, P39 DAWSON A, 2001, GEOGRAPHY, V85, P193 DEGG M, 1992, GEOGRAPHY, V77, P198 HEWITT K, 1983, INTERPRETATIONS CALA HOUGHTON JT, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, P155 KELMAN I, 2001, WEATHER, V56, P346 MARSH TJ, 2001, WEATHER, V56, P343 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 OHARE G, 2000, AREA, V32, P357 OHARE G, 2001, GEOGR J 1, V167, P23 OLIVERSMITH A, 1994, DISASTERS DEV ENV, P31 OSBORN TJ, 2000, INT J CLIMATOL, V20, P347 OWE J, 2002, GEOGRAPHY, V87, P116 PULWARTY RS, 1997, HURRICANES CLIMATE S, P185 SCHMITH T, 1998, CLIM DYNAM, V14, P529 SMITH K, 1997, APPL CLIMATOLOGY PRI, P301 SMITH K, 1998, FLOODS PHYSICAL PROC WIGLEY TML, 1999, SCI CLIMATE CHANGE G NR 23 TC 0 J9 GEOGRAPHY BP 234 EP 246 PY 2002 PD JUL VL 87 GA 576CW UT ISI:000176986100007 ER PT J AU Zimmerer, KS TI Just small potatoes (and ulluco)? The use of seed-size variation in "native commercialized" agriculture and agrobiodiversity conservation among Peruvian farmers SO AGRICULTURE AND HUMAN VALUES LA English DT Review C1 Univ Wisconsin, Inst Environm Studies, Dept Geog, Madison, WI 53706 USA. RP Zimmerer, KS, Univ Wisconsin, Inst Environm Studies, Dept Geog, 384 Sci Hall,550 N Pk St, Madison, WI 53706 USA. AB Farmers of the Peruvian Andes make use of seed-size variation as a source of flexibility in the production of "native commercial" farmer varieties of Andean potatoes and ulluco. In a case study of eastern Cuzco, the use of varied sizes of seed tubers is found to underpin versatile farm strategies suited to partial commercialization (combined with on-farm consumption and the next season's seed). Use of seed-size variation also provides adaptation to diverse soil-moisture environments. The importance and widespread use of seed-size variation among farmers is demonstrated in the emphasis and consistency of linguistic expressions about this trait. Small and small-medium seed is typically sown in the community's "Hill" unit of sub-humid, upper-elevation agriculture. Seed tubers of medium-size and larger are needed for drought-stressed locales in lower-elevation landscape units. Farm-level preferences for the seed-size of tubers also suggest potential relations to resource endowments of farm households and gender-related management, although these tendencies were not statistically significant in the study. An intra-varietal, landscape-environmental perspective on seed-size management, which includes an emphasis on within-field versatility, helps to strengthen the research support of local seed production in policies and programs aiming for in situ agrobiodiversity conservation, marketing capacity, and food security. 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RP Azar, C, Chalmers Univ Technol, S-41296 Gothenburg, Sweden. AB This article starts with a review of climate policy targets (temperature, concentrations and emissions for individual regions as well as the world as a whole). A 20-40% reduction target for the EU is proposed for the period 2000-2020. It then looks at costs to meet such targets, and concludes that there is widespread agreement amongst macro-economic studies that stringent carbon controls are compatible with a significant increase in global and regional economic welfare. The difference in growth rates is found to be less than 0.05% per year. Nevertheless, concern still remains about the distribution of costs. If abatement policies are introduced in one or a few regions without similar climate policies being introduced in the rest of the world, some energy-intensive industries may lose competitiveness, and production may be relocated to other countries. Policies to protect these industries have for that reason been proposed (in order to protect jobs, to avoid strong actors lobbying against the climate policies, and to avoid carbon leakage). The article offers an overview of the advantages and drawbacks of such protective policies. 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AB Early ethnographic descriptions of the Inuit, the original inhabitants of Arctic Canada and Greenland, depict a culture and society assumed to have been relatively untouched by European influence. Archaeology has shown that this way of life had developed over the past five centuries from the Thule culture, which was technologically richer and more economically secure than that of the historic Inuit. The transformation from Thule to Inuit culture has generally been explained in terms of adaptation to a deteriorating environment. This paper argues that the development of Inuit culture can be more satisfactorily interpreted as a response to early and continued contacts with Europeans and the effects of repeated epidemic diseases resulting from such contacts. 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ANTIQUITY, V40, P114 TAYLOR WE, 1979, THULE ESKIMO CULTURE, R4 TESTER FJ, 1994, TAMMARNIIT MISTAKES THORNTON R, 1993, AM ANTHROPOL, V93, P28 TUCK JA, 1989, RED BAY LABRADOR WOR TURQUETIL A, 1907, MISSIONS CONGREGATIO, V45, P330 TURQUETIL A, 1912, SOC GEOGRAPHIE QUEBE, V6, P398 VANSTONE JW, 1962, 4 ROY ONT MUS ART AR VANSTONE JW, 1967, U WASHINGTON PUBLICA, V15 VASARI Y, 1972, ACTA U OULUENSIS A VERANO JW, 1992, DISEASE DEMOGRAPHY A WIESSNER P, 1989, MEANING THINGS MATER, P56 WILLIAMS G, 1969, A GRAHAMS OBSERVATIO NR 161 TC 5 J9 CURR ANTHROPOL BP 565 EP 594 PY 1994 PD DEC VL 35 IS 5 GA PR301 UT ISI:A1994PR30100004 ER PT J AU Ravindranath, NH Sukumar, R TI Climate change and tropical forests in India SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 Indian Inst Sci, Ctr Ecol Sci, Bangalore 560012, Karnataka, India. RP Ravindranath, NH, Indian Inst Sci, Ctr Ecol Sci, Bangalore 560012, Karnataka, India. AB India has 64 Mha under forests, of which 72% are tropical moist deciduous, dry deciduous, and wet evergreen forest. Projected changes in temperature, rainfall, and soil moisture are considered at regional level for India under two scenarios, the first involving greenhouse gas forcing, and the second, sulphate aerosols. Under the former model, a general increase in temperature and rainfall in all regions is indicated. This could potentially result in increased productivity, and shift forest type boundaries along attitudinal and rainfall gradients, with species migrating from lower to higher elevations and the drier forest types bring transformed to moister types. The aerosol model, however, indicates a more modest increase in temperature and a decrease in precipitation in central and northern India, which would considerably stress the forests in these regions. Although India seems to have stabilized the area under forest since 1980, anthropogenic stresses such as livestock pressure, biomass demand for fuelwood and timber, and the fragmented nature of forests will all affect forest response to changing climate. Thus, forest area is unlikely to expand even if climatically suitable, and will probably decrease in parts of northeast India due to extensive shifting cultivation and deforestation. A number of general adaptation measures to climate change are listed. 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SO ECOSYSTEMS LA English DT Review C1 Univ Wisconsin, Ctr Limnol, Madison, WI 53706 USA. CSIRO Sustainable Ecosyst, Canberra, ACT 2615, Australia. RP Carpenter, SR, Univ Wisconsin, Ctr Limnol, 680 N Pk St, Madison, WI 53706 USA. AB Resilience is the magnitude of disturbance that can be tolerated before a socioecological system (SES) moves to a different region of state space controlled by a different set of processes. Resilience has multiple levels of meaning: as a metaphor related to sustainability, as a property of dynamic models, and as a measurable quantity that can be assessed in field studies of SES. The operational indicators of resilience have, however, received little attention in the literature. To assess a system's resilience, one must specify which system configuration and which disturbances are of interest. This paper compares resilience properties in two contrasting SES, lake districts and rangelands, with respect to the following three general features: (a) The ability of an SES to stay in the domain of attraction is related to slowly changing variables, or slowly changing disturbance regimes, which control the boundaries of the domain of attraction or the frequency of events that Could Push the system across the boundaries. Examples are soil phosphorus content in lake districts woody vegetation cover in rangelands, and property rights systems that affect land use in both lake districts and rangelands, (b) The ability of an SES to self-organize is related to the extent to which reorganization is endogenous rather than forced by external drivers. Self-organization is enhanced by coevolved ecosystem components and the presence of social networks that facilitate innovative problem solving. (c) The adaptive capacity of an SES is related to the existence of mechanisms for the evolution of novelty or learning. Examples include biodiversity at multiple scales and the existence of institutions that facilitate experimentation, discovery, and innovation. 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SO AMBIO LA English DT Editorial Material C1 Helsinki Univ Technol, Water Resources Lab, FIN-02015 Espoo, Finland. RP Varis, O, Helsinki Univ Technol, Water Resources Lab, POB 5200, FIN-02015 Espoo, Finland. CR *ICID, 2003, ICID DAT *IFRC, 2002, WORLD DIS REP 2002 I MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 *MRC, 2005, INF RES FLOOD INF *WCD, 2000, DAMS DEV REP WORLD C KUNDZEWICZ ZW, 2001, INT C FRESHW 3 7 DEC KUNDZEWICZ ZW, 2002, WATER INT, V27, P3 VARIS O, 2003, INT J WATER RESOUR D, V19, P295 VARIS O, 2004, IN PRESS CLIM CHANGE YIN HF, 2001, GEOMORPHOLOGY, V41, P105 NR 10 TC 0 J9 AMBIO BP 478 EP 480 PY 2005 PD AUG VL 34 IS 6 GA 954TW UT ISI:000231178800011 ER PT J AU Patwardhan, A TI Assessing vulnerability to climate change: The link between objectives and assessment SO CURRENT SCIENCE LA English DT Article C1 Indian Inst Technol, Shailesh J Mehta Sch Management, Bombay 400076, Maharashtra, India. RP Patwardhan, A, Indian Inst Technol, Shailesh J Mehta Sch Management, Bombay 400076, Maharashtra, India. AB The vulnerability of developing countries to potential impacts of climate change and the options for adaptation are rapidly emerging as central issues in the debate around policy responses to climate change. In order to prioritize, design and implement interventions to adapt to climate change, it is essential to adopt a coherent and consistent set of definitions and frameworks for examining vulnerability, adaptation and adaptive capacity. In practice, a variety of definitions of vulnerability and adaptation are found in the literature. This paper uses the base of literature from the context of the coastal impacts of climate change to draw some explicit linkages between the objectives of vulnerability and adaptation assessment and the definitions used in the analysis. We find that such a linkage is helpful for identifying the nature of assessment required, and the data and information necessary. The paper concludes with some thoughts regarding directions for research with regard to vulnerability and adaptation assessment. CR 1993, IMPACTS GREENHOUSE I 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 ABETE T, 1993, IPCC CC 93 E HEM WOR BARTH MC, 1984, GREENHOUSE EFFECT SE CAMBERS G, 1994, 3 IPCC CZMS WORKSH M DENELZEN MGJ, 1992, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V20, P169 GORNITZ V, 1989, COASTAL ZONE 89, P1345 GORNITZ V, 1991, COASTAL ZONE, P2354 HUGHES P, 1992, S AFR J SCI, V88, P308 MILLIMAN JD, 1989, AMBIO, V18, P340 MORGAN MG, 1981, IEEE SPECTRUM, V18, P58 NICHOLLS RJ, 1993, WORLD RISK NATURAL H, P193 PERDOMO M, 1992, IPCC RESPONSE STRATE RIJKSWATERSTAAT, 1990, SEA LEVEL RISE WORLD SCHNEIDER SH, 1980, ANNU REV ENERG ENV, V5, P107 SMITH JB, 1989, POTENTIAL EFFECTS GL TITUS JG, 1986, EFFECTS CHANGES STRA, V4 TITUS JG, 1988, GREENHOUSE EFFECT SE TITUS JG, 1990, CHANGING CLIMATE COA TITUS JG, 1991, COASTAL ZONE MANAGEM, V19, P172 WEST JJ, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V48, P317 WEST JJ, 1999, CLIMATE CHANGE RISK, P205 YOHE GW, 1990, COAST MANAGE, V18, P403 YOHE GW, 1996, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V32, P387 YOHE GW, 1998, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V38, P447 NR 25 TC 0 J9 CURR SCI BP 376 EP 383 PY 2006 PD FEB 10 VL 90 IS 3 GA 014RM UT ISI:000235497600023 ER PT J AU Byravan, S Rajan, SC TI Providing new homes for climate change exiles SO CLIMATE POLICY LA English DT Article C1 Council Responsible Genet, Cambridge, MA 02140 USA. Tellus Inst, Boston, MA 02116 USA. RP Byravan, S, Council Responsible Genet, 5 Upland Rd,Suite 3, Cambridge, MA 02140 USA. AB Given a certain pre-existing commitment to sea-level rise due to the long thermal lags of the ocean system, several million people living in coastal areas and small islands will inevitably be displaced by the middle of the century. These climate exiles will have nowhere to go. Rather than deal with this in an ad hoc manner as the problem arises, the authors propose a mechanism by which these exiles would be given immigration benefits by countries through a formula that ties numbers of immigrants to a country's historical greenhouse gas emissions. Such a compensatory mechanism appears to be a fair way of addressing the problems faced by climate exiles. 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Sundberg, J Ostwald, M Chen, DL Yun, X Knutsson, P TI Climate variability and land-use change in danangou watershed, China - Examples of small-scale farmers' adaptation SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 Univ Gothenburg, Dept Earth Sci, Gothenburg, Sweden. MIT, Dept Earth Atmospher & Planetary Sci, Cambridge, MA 02139 USA. China Meteorol Adm, Clin Studies Lab, Beijing, Peoples R China. China Meteorol Adm, Natl Climate Ctr, Beijing, Peoples R China. Beijing Normal Univ, Dept Resource & Environm Sci, Beijing 100875, Peoples R China. Gothenburg Univ, Sect Human Ecol, S-41124 Gothenburg, Sweden. RP Hageback, J, Univ Gothenburg, Dept Earth Sci, Gothenburg, Sweden. AB With global concern on climate change impacts, developing countries are given special attention due their susceptibility. In this paper, change and variability in climate, land use and farmers' perception, adaptation and response to change are examined in Danangou watershed in the Chinese Loess Plateau. The first focus is to look at how climate data recorded at meteorological stations recently have evolved, and how farmers perceived these changes. Further, we want to see how the farmers respond and adapt to climate variability and what the resulting impact on land use is. Finally, other factors causing change in land use are considered. Local precipitation and temperature instrumental data and interview data from farmers were used. The instrumental data shows that the climate is getting warmer and drier, the latter despite large interannual variability. The trend is seen on the local and regional level. Farmers' perception of climatic variability corresponds well with the data record. During the last 20 years, the farmers have become less dependent on agriculture by adopting a more diversified livelihood. This adaptation makes them less vulnerable to climate variability. It was found that government policies and reforms had a stronger influence on land use than climate variability. Small-scale farmers should therefore be considered as adaptive to changing situations, planned and non-consciously planned. 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Vrije Univ Amsterdam, Inst Environm Studies, NL-1081 HV Amsterdam, Netherlands. Carnegie Mellon Univ, Ctr Integrated Study Human Dimens Global Change, Pittsburgh, PA 15213 USA. Oxford Off, Stockholm Environm Inst, Oxford, England. Stratus Consulting Inc, Boulder, CO USA. RP Tol, RSJ, Univ Hamburg, Ctr Marine & Climate Res, Bundesstr 55, D-20146 Hamburg, Germany. AB Climate change is likely to impact more severely on the poorer people of the world, because they are more exposed to the weather, because they are closer to the biophysical and experience limits of climate, and because their adaptive capacity is lower. Estimates of aggregated impacts necessarily make assumptions on the relative importance of sectors, countries and periods; we propose to make these assumption explicit. We introduce a Gini coefficient for climate change impacts, which shows the distribution of impacts is very skewed in the near future and will deteriorate for more than a century before becoming more egalitarian. Vulnerability to climate change depends on more than per capita income alone, so that the geographical pattern of vulnerability is complex, and the relationship between vulnerability and development non-linear and non-monotonous. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *US COUNT STUD PRO, 1999, CLIM CHANG MIT VULN *US NAT ASS SYNT T, 2000, CLIM CHANG IMP US, P1 ARROW KJ, 1996, INTERTEMPORAL EQUITY AZAR C, 1996, ECOL ECON, V19, P169 AZAR C, 1999, ENVIRON RESOUR ECON, V13, P249 CALLAWAY J, 2004, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V14, P275 CLINE WR, 1992, EC GLOBAL WARMING DOWNING TE, 1996, FULL FUEL CYCLE STUD, P1 DOWNING TE, 1996, PROJECTED COSTS CLIM DOWNING TE, 1997, MITIGATION ADAPTATIO, V2, P19 DOWNING TE, 1998, CLIMAGE CHANGE RISK DOWNING TE, 2003, CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPT FANKHAUSER S, 1995, VALUING CLIMATE CHAN FANKHAUSER S, 1996, ENERG POLICY, V24, P665 FANKHAUSER S, 1997, ENVIRON RESOUR ECON, V10, P249 FANKHAUSER S, 1997, MITIGATION ADAPTATIO, V1, P385 FANKHAUSER S, 1998, ENVIRON DEV ECON, V3, P59 FANKHAUSER S, 1999, ECOL ECON, V30, P67 HITZ S, 2004, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V14, P201 HOOZEMANS FMJ, 1993, GLOBAL VULNERABILITY MAHLMAN JD, 1997, SCIENCE, V278, P1416 MENDELSOHN R, 1999, AMBIO, V28, P362 MENDELSOHN RO, 1998, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P553 NICHOLLS RJ, 2003, ENVEPOCGSP20039FINAL NORDHAUS WD, 1991, ECON J, V101, P920 NORDHAUS WD, 1994, AM SCI, V82, P45 NORDHAUS WD, 2000, WARMING WORLD EC MOD PARRY ML, GLOBAL ENV CHANGE, V9, P1 PARRY ML, 2001, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V11, P181 PEARCE DW, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, P179 PORTNEY PR, 1999, DISCOUNTING INTERGEN SCHNEIDER SH, 2004, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V14, P247 SMIT B, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, P877 SMITH JB, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, P913 SOHNGEN B, 1998, AMBIO, V27, P509 SOHNGEN B, 1999, IMPACT CLIMATE CHANG, P94 TOL R, 1999, FAIR WEATHER EQUITY, P65 TOL RSJ, 1995, ENVIRON RESOUR ECON, V5, P353 TOL RSJ, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE INTEG, P167 TOL RSJ, 1996, ECOL ECON, V19, P67 TOL RSJ, 1997, ENVIRON MODEL ASSESS, V2, P151 TOL RSJ, 1998, ENERG POLICY, V26, P13 TOL RSJ, 1998, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V8, P109 TOL RSJ, 1999, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V41, P351 TOL RSJ, 1999, ENERGY J SPECIAL ISS, P130 TOL RSJ, 1999, ENERGY J, V20, P61 TOL RSJ, 1999, ENVIRON RESOUR ECON, V14, P33 TOL RSJ, 1999, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V9, P221 TOL RSJ, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V46, P357 TOL RSJ, 2000, WORLD ECON, V1, P179 TOL RSJ, 2001, ECOL ECON, V36, P71 TOL RSJ, 2001, INTEGRATED ASSESSMEN, V2, P173 TOL RSJ, 2001, POLLUTION ATMOSPHERI, P155 TOL RSJ, 2002, CLIMATE DEV MALARIA TOL RSJ, 2002, ENERG ECON, V24, P367 TOL RSJ, 2002, ENVIRON RESOUR ECON, V21, P135 TOL RSJ, 2002, ENVIRON RESOUR ECON, V21, P47 TOL RSJ, 2003, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V56, P265 TOL RSJ, 2003, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V57, P71 WIGLEY T, 2003, ENVEPOCGSP20037FINAL YOHE GW, 1996, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V32, P387 YOHE GW, 2002, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V12, P25 YOHE GW, 2002, J ECON GEOGR, V2, P311 YOHE GW, 2004, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V14, P285 NR 64 TC 0 J9 GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANGE BP 259 EP 272 PY 2004 PD OCT VL 14 IS 3 GA 854EQ UT ISI:000223884300007 ER PT J AU Seck, M Abou Mamouda, MN Wade, S TI Case study 4: Senegal - Adaptation and mitigation through "produced environments": The case for agriculture intensification in Senegal SO IDS BULLETIN-INSTITUTE OF DEVELOPMENT STUDIES LA English DT Article AB The Senegal case study looks at one example of how adaptation and mitigation can be usefully combined in a way which enhances incomes and diversifies livelihoods of the poor, while also securing benefits for biodiversity, gender equality and carbon sequestration. The case study describes how a pilot farm in Niayes, Senegal, launched in the 1970s, has evolved over time to address significant variations in climate change. The Sebikotane programme has had to adapt to successive droughts, a drying climate and a growing population increasingly gravitating to urban centres. Planting dense perennial hedges that act as windbreakers helps to generate an agriculturally conducive microclimate. Traditional predominantly rain-fed forms of agriculture have been replaced by irrigation-based commercial crops. The windbreakers fight wind-related soil erosion and desiccation of crops, which had not previously been addressed. They also provide valuable fuelwood for cooking, lessening the burden on girls and women to collect wood. The use of windbreaks to "produce the environment" has led to increased production of fruit and vegetables for commercial sale in domestic and high-value export markets as well as demonstrated carbon sequestration benefits. It also provides employment for young people and has helped train a new generation of farmers. The innovations and adaptation practises used in Sebikotane have been taken up nationally and supported internationally as being relevant to other sub-Saharan countries, as they illustrate an innovative, integrated way of managing the environment to provide adaptation and mitigation benefits locally as well as globally. CR *UNEP UNESCO UN HA, 2003, SURF WAT BOD URB POL ABOU MN, 2004, JUSTIFICATION CRITER BAKAYOKO O, 1999, VALORISATION ENERGET CAIRNS MA, 1994, CARBON SEQUESTRATION GUEYE NKG, 2001, ESSAI EXTRACTION SUC PELISSIER J, 1966, PAYSANS SENEGAL CIVI NR 6 TC 0 J9 IDS BULL-INST DEVELOP STUD BP 71 EP + PY 2005 PD OCT VL 36 IS 4 GA 989QD UT ISI:000233687900006 ER PT J AU MacCracken, MC TI Climate change discussions in Washington: A matter of contending perspectives SO ENVIRONMENTAL VALUES LA English DT Article C1 Climate Inst, Washington, DC 20036 USA. RP MacCracken, MC, Climate Inst, Washington, DC 20036 USA. AB The scientific evidence and understanding underpinning societal responsibility for the accelerating pace of climate change has become increasingly strong over the past hundred years. Although many nations have begun to take actions that have the potential to eventually slow the pace of change, contention over the issue continues in the United States, particularly in the nation's capital. A major cause appears to arise from different interpretations of the evidence arising from different perspectives on the issue, including those of the scientific, environmental, fossil-fuel generating, technological, economic and ethical communities. In addition, the public encounters a cacophony of intermixed perspectives from the media and elected officials. While each perspective provides some useful insights, each alone contributes to inhibiting development of the national political consensus needed to responsibly address climate change. Without leadership that balances and reconciles competing perspectives, it is unlikely that a sufficient limiting of emissions will be enacted to prevent significant changes in climate that will impose increasing challenges for those in both developing and developed nations. CR *ACIA, 2004, IMP WARM ARCT ARCT C *CCSP, 2003, STRAT PLAN US CLIM C *GAO, 2004, GAO04895T *NAST, 2000, CLIM CHANG IMP US PO *NRC, 1983, CHANG CLIM *PSAC, 1965, REST QUAL ENV *SCEP, 1970, MANS IMP GLOB ENV AS *SMIC, 1971, IN CLIM MOD REP STUD *USG, 2002, US CLIM ACT REP 2002 *WMO, 1985, PUBL WMO, V661 ARRHENIUS S, 1896, PHILOS MAG 5, V41, P237 BOYKOFF MT, 2004, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V14, P125 CALLENDAR GS, 1938, Q J ROY METEOR SOC, V64, P223 HOFFERT MI, 2002, SCIENCE, V298, P981 HOUGHTON J, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 MACCRACKEN MC, 1985, DOEER0235 MACCRACKEN MC, 1985, DOEER0237 MANNING M, 2004, WORKSH DESCR SCI UNC MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 METZ B, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 REVELLE R, 1957, TELLUS, V9, P18 NR 21 TC 2 J9 ENVIRON VALUE BP 381 EP 395 PY 2006 PD AUG VL 15 IS 3 GA 089VG UT ISI:000240908900012 ER PT J AU Mendelsohn, R TI The role of markets and governments in helping society adapt to a changing climate SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 Yale Univ, Yale FES, New Haven, CT 06511 USA. RP Mendelsohn, R, Yale Univ, Yale FES, 230 Prospect St, New Haven, CT 06511 USA. AB This paper provides an economic perspective of adaptation to climate change. The paper specifically examines the role of markets and government in efficient adaptation responses. For adaptations to be efficient, the benefits from following adaptations must exceed the costs. For private market goods, market actors will follow this principle in their own interest. For public goods, governments must take on this responsibility. Governments must also be careful to design institutions that encourage efficiency or they could inadvertently increase the damages from climate change. Finally, although in a few cases actors must anticipate climate changes far into the future, generally it is best to learn and then act with respect to adaptation. CR *VEMAP MEMB, 1995, GLOBAL BIOGEOCHEMICA, V9, P407 ADAMS R, 1993, REASSESSMENT EC EFFE ADAMS R, 1999, IMPACT CLIMATE CHANG ADAMS RM, 1990, NATURE, V345, P219 HOUGHTON J, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 HOWITT R, 2003, IMPACTS CLIMATE CHAN HURD BH, 1999, IMPACT CLIMATE CHANG JOYCE L, 1995, RM271 KAISER H, 1993, AGR DIMENSIONS GLOBA KAISER HM, 1993, AM J AGR ECON, V75, P387 LENIHAN JM, 2003, ECOL APPL, V13, P1667 LUND J, 2003, 031 U CAL MAKKI S, 2001, TB1892, P1 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 MELILLO JM, 1993, NATURE, V363, P234 MENDELSOHN R, 1997, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V37, P271 MENDELSOHN R, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P583 MENDELSOHN R, 2003, LAND ECON, V79, P328 MENDELSOHN R, 2004, INTEGRATED ASSESSMEN, V9, P315 NIELSON RP, 1992, LANDSCAPE ECOLOGY, V7, P27 PEARCE D, 1995, CLIMAGE CHANGE 1995, P179 PRENTICE IC, 1992, J BIOGEOGR, V19, P117 SMITH JB, 2003, BIODIVERSITY TOL RSJ, 1995, ENVIRON RESOUR ECON, V5, P353 WEISS H, 2001, SCIENCE, V291, P609 NR 25 TC 1 J9 CLIMATIC CHANGE BP 203 EP 215 PY 2006 PD SEP VL 78 IS 1 GA 083UY UT ISI:000240484900009 ER PT J AU Al Kuisi, M El-Naqa, A Hammouri, N TI Vulnerability mapping of shallow groundwater aquifer using SINTACS model in the Jordan Valley area, Jordan SO ENVIRONMENTAL GEOLOGY LA English DT Article C1 Univ Jordan, Fac Sci, Dept Appl Geol & Environm, Amman 11143, Jordan. Hashemite Univ, Fac Nat Resources & Environm, Zarqa, Jordan. RP Al Kuisi, M, Univ Jordan, Fac Sci, Dept Appl Geol & Environm, POB 430616, Amman 11143, Jordan. AB Jordan Valley is one of the important areas in Jordan that involves dense agricultural activities, which depend on groundwater resources. The groundwater is exploited from an unconfined shallow aquifer which is mainly composed of alluvial deposits. In the vicinity of the Kafrein and South Shunah, the shallow aquifer shows signs of contamination from a wide variety of non-point sources. In this study, a vulnerability map was created as a tool to determine areas where groundwater is most vulnerable to contamination. One of the most widely used groundwater vulnerability mapping methods is SINTACS, which is a point count system model for the assessment of groundwater pollution hazards. SINTACS model is an adaptation for Mediterranean conditions of the well-known DRASTIC model. The model takes into account several environmental factors: these include topography, hydrology, geology, hydrogeology, and pedology. Spatial knowledge of all these factors and their mutual relationships is needed in order to properly model aquifer vulnerability using this model. Geographic information system was used to express each of SINTACS parameters as a spatial thematic layer with a specific weight and score. The final SINTACS thematic layer (intrinsic vulnerability index) was produced by taking the summation of each score parameter multiplied by its specific weight. The resultant SINTACS vulnerability map of the study area indicates that the highest potential sites for contamination are along the area between Er Ramah and Kafrein area. To the north of the study area there is a small, circular area which shows fairly high potential. Elsewhere, very low to low SINTACS index values are observed, indicating areas of low vulnerability potential. 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Negendank: A contribution of the Asian Lake Drilling Programme (ALDP) SO QUATERNARY INTERNATIONAL LA English DT Editorial Material C1 Int Res Ctr Japanese Studies, Oeyama Nishikyoku, Kyoto, Japan. Mem Univ Newfoundland, Dept Geog, St Johns, NF A1B 3X9, Canada. RP Yasuda, Y, Int Res Ctr Japanese Studies, Oeyama Nishikyoku, Kyoto, Japan. 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Univ Michigan, Sch Nat Resources & Environm, Ann Arbor, MI 48109 USA. RP Eakin, H, Univ Calif Santa Barbara, Dept Geog, Santa Barbara, CA 93106 USA. AB In the managerial discourse of climate change, there are high expectations of nation-state leadership in promoting adaptation. Yet Globalization has introduced new challenges for the state not only in terms of managing rapid economic and cultural integration, but also with respect to governance and decision-making, the use of science and information in policy, and the types of problems governments are called upon to address. Through concrete examples of the process of policy-making in Latin American countries, we illustrate not only the continued relevance of the state, but also the complex challenges posed by globalization to state-led adaptation. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *CEPAL, 2002, GLOB DEV MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 *PAN BIOT, 1999, BIOT WAT SEC 21 CENT *SAGARPA, 2003, REGL OP PROGR FOND A *SECR CEC, 2004, MAIZ BIOD EFF TRANSG *UNFCC, 2001, C PART ITS 7 SESS HE ADGER WN, 2001, DEV CHANGE, V32, P681 ARONOWITZ S, 2002, PARADIGM LOST STATE, R11 BAETHGEN WE, 1997, CLIMATE RES, V9, P1 BAUER CJ, 1997, WORLD DEV, V25, P639 BEBBINGTON A, 2005, WORLD DEV, V33, P937 BRANFORD S, 2004, NEW SCI, V17, P40 BROOKS N, 2004, ADAPTATION POLICY FR BULMERTHOMAS V, 1996, NEW EC MODEL LATIN A BURTON I, 2002, CLIM POLICY, V2, P145 CHALMERS DA, 1997, NEW POLITICS INEQUAL, P540 CHRISTENSEN T, 2002, J POLIT PHILOS, V10, P267 CHRISTENSEN T, 2002, NEW PUBLIC MANAGEMEN COHEN J, 2004, NATL AGR BIOTECHNOLO CORNELIUS W, 1998, TRANSFORMATION RURAL CULLET P, 2001, P 2001 BERL HUM DIM DEJANVRY A, 1995, REFORMAS SECTOR AGR DEJANVRY A, 1995, WORLD DEV, V23, P1349 DIXON RK, 2003, MITIGATION ADAPTATIO, V8, P93 DOOLEY JJ, 2001, PNNL13551 DRUCKER PF, 1997, FOREIGN AFF, V76, P159 ECHEVERRIA RG, 1998, WORLD DEV, V26, P1103 EVENSON RE, 1999, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V96, P5921 FORMIGAJOHNSSON RM, 2005, 3649 WORLD BANK FORSYTH T, 1999, J ENV DEV, V8, P238 FOX J, 1992, POLITICS FOOD MEXICO FOX J, 1995, J DEV STUD, V32, P1 FOX J, 2000, POLICY SCI, V33, P399 GIBSON C, 2003, J ENV DEV, V12, P28 GRIFFIN K, 2003, DEV CHANGE, V34, P789 GUIDRY JA, 2000, GLOBALIZATIONS SOCIA, P1 HANDMER J, 1999, MITIGATION ADAPTATIO, V4, P267 HOFFMAN K, 2003, ANNU REV SOCIOL, V29, P363 HUBER E, 2004, LAT AM RES REV, V39, P150 JAYASURIYA K, 2005, CHALLENGES STATE POL, P19 JESSOP B, 1908, PARADIGM LOST STATE, P185 KELLY T, 1999, EFFECTS EC ADJUSTMEN KEMPER K, 2000, POLITICAL EC WATER P, P339 KORZENIEWICZ RP, 2000, LAT AM RES REV, V35, P7 LAOS EH, 2003, GLOBALIZACION DESIGU LARSON A, 2005, DEMOCRATIC DECENTRAL, P1 LARSON AE, 2001, WORLD DEV, V30, P17 LEMOS MC, IN PRESS WATER EQUIT LEMOS MC, 2004, WORLD DEV, V32, P2121 LOWI T, 2002, DEMOCRATIC GOVENANCE MANOR J, 2005, DEMOCRATIC DECENTRAL, P193 MCLAUGHLIN KSP, 2002, NEW PUBLIC MANAGEMEN MONTECINOS E, 2005, EURE, V31, P73 NEWELL P, 2002, 141 IDS NEWELL P, 2003, 206 IDS OBRIEN KL, 2000, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V10, P221 OSTROM, 2001, VULNERABILITY POLYCE PAINTER M, 2005, CHALLENGES STATE POL, P1 PEREZ M, 2003, JORNADA VIRTUAL 0808 PEREZ M, 2005, JORNADA VIRTUAL 0208 PRAY CE, 2001, AM J AGR ECON, V83, P742 PRAY CE, 2003, BIOTECHNOLOGY R D PO QUESADA VF, 2003, TERCER INFORME GOBIE QUESADA VF, 2005, QUINTO IFORME GOBIER SCHNEPF RD, 2001, AGR BRAZIL ARGENTINA SCHUURMAN FJ, 2000, THIRD WORLD Q, V21, P7 SHARMA HC, 2002, PLANT SCI, V163, P381 SMIT B, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 SMIT B, 2002, MITIGATION ADAPTATIO, V7, P85 SMITH B, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P223 SMITHERS J, 1997, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V7, P129 SPOOR M, 2000, DISCUSSION SERIES CE, V56 SPRUYT H, 2002, ANNU REV POLIT SCI, V5, P127 STIGLITZ J, 2002, GLOBALIZATION ITS DI STIGLITZ J, 2003, IND CORP CHANGE, V12, P3 TELLEZ JLC, 2004, DESARROLLO AGRICOLA, P71 TERRY LD, 2005, ADMIN SOC, V37, P426 THOMPSON G, 2001, FARM UNREST ROILS ME TURNER T, 2004, MONSANTO UPS EFFORT WADE RH, 2004, WORLD DEV, V32, P567 WESTER P, 2003, WORLD DEV, V31, P797 YOHE GW, 2001, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V12, P25 NR 82 TC 1 J9 GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANGE BP 7 EP 18 PY 2006 PD FEB VL 16 IS 1 GA 013QP UT ISI:000235424500003 ER PT J AU Pielke, RA TI Misdefining "climate change": consequences for science and action SO ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE & POLICY LA English DT Article C1 Univ Colorado, Ctr Sci & Technol Policy Res, Boulder, CO 80309 USA. RP Pielke, RA, Univ Colorado, Ctr Sci & Technol Policy Res, 1333 Grandview Ave,UCB 488, Boulder, CO 80309 USA. AB The restricted definition of "climate change" used by the Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC) has profoundly affected the science, politics, and policy processes associated with the international response to the climate issue. Specifically, the FCCC definition has contributed to the gridlock and ineffectiveness of the global response to the challenge of climate change. This paper argues that the consequences of misdefining "climate change" create a bias against adaptation policies and set the stage for the politicization of climate science. The paper discusses options for bringing science, policy and politics in line with a more appropriate definition of climate change such as the more comprehensive perspective used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR 2001, BOSTON GLOBE *IFRC, 2000, WORLD DIS REP INT FE *INT I SUST DEV, 2004, 10 C PART UN FRAM CO *INT IR STEEL I, 2002, STEEL IND IND SECT R *IPCC, 1995, IPCC 2 ASS REP CLIM *IPCC, 1996, IPCC 2 ASS SYNTH SCI *IPCC, 1996, SCI ASS CONS 2 ASS R *IPCC, 2001, IPCC 3 ASS REP CLIM *NRC, 2004, IMPL CLIM GLOB CHANG *NRC, 2004, RAD FORC CLIM CHANG *TDR, 2004, MULT IN MAL MIM SPEC *UN, 1992, UN FRAM CONV CLIM CH *US WHIT HOUS, 1997, BACKGR MAT PRES CLIN *WORLD RES I, 2000, WORLD RES 2000 2001 ALLEY RB, 2003, SCIENCE, V299, P2005 ALONSO A, 2001, BIODIVERSITY CONNECT BODANSKY D, 2002, US CLIMATE POLICY KY BROWN P, 2003, GUARDIAN BRUNNER RD, 1999, POLICY SCI, V32, P133 CHANGNON SA, 2000, B AM METEOROL SOC, V81, P437 COPPOCK R, 1998, IMPLEMENTING KYOTO P CRICHTON M, 2004, STATE FEAR DESSAI S, 2004, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V64, P11 GLANTZ MH, 1995, CLIMATE CHANGE RES E, P41 GOKLANY IM, 2004, SCIENCE, V306, P55 GUNDERSON LH, 2002, PANARCHY UNDERSTANDI, V1, P1 HAMMITT JK, 2000, WASH POST, A39 HANSEN JE, 1998, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V95, P12753 HERBERT B, 1999, NY TIMES HOLLINGS E, 1990, CONGR REC, P17739 KABAT P, 2003, VEGETATION WATER HUM KASPERSON JX, 2001, GLOBAL ENV RISK KEITH DW, 2000, ANNU REV ENERG ENV, V25, P245 KING DA, 2004, SCIENCE, V306, P57 LAHSEN M, 1999, PARANOIA REASON CASE, V6 LAIRD F, 2000, JUST SAY NO GREENHOU LARSSON E, 2004, SE601 CAMP NORRK LIN LEMPERT RJ, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P387 LETTENMAIER DP, 1999, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V43, P537 MARLAND G, 2003, CLIM POLICY, V3, P149 MILETI D, 2000, 2 ASSESSMENT NATURAL NORDHAUS WD, 1999, ENERGY J, P93 ONEILL BC, 2002, SCIENCE, V296, P1971 PARRY ML, 2001, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V11, P181 PIELKE RA, 1994, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V28, P315 PIELKE RA, 1998, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V8, P159 PIELKE RA, 2000, ENERGY ENV, V11, P255 PIELKE RA, 2000, J CLIMATE, V13, P3625 PIELKE RA, 2002, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V52, P1 PIELKE RA, 2003, ISSUES SCI TECHN WIN, P27 PIELKE RA, 2005, POPUL ENVIRON, V26, P255 PURVIS N, 2004, LEAVING AM REAL IMPO RAYNER S, 1997, NATURE, V390, P332 RAYNER S, 2004, INT CHALLENGE CLIMAT REITER P, 2001, ENVIRON HEALTH PE S1, V109, P141 SACHS J, 1999, ECONOMIST SAREWITZ D, 2000, ATLANTIC MONTHLY, V286, P55 SAREWITZ D, 2000, PREDICTION SCI DECIS SAREWITZ D, 2004, ENVIRON SCI POLICY, V7, P385 SAREWITZ D, 2005, RISING TIDE TSUNAMIS SCHNEIDER SH, 2001, NATURE, V411, P17 TOL RSJ, 2001, INTEGRATED ASSESSMEN, V2, P173 VAITHESSWARAN V, 2001, ECONOMIST VICTOR D, 2001, COLLAPSE KYOTO PROTO VICTOR D, 2001, NY TIMES VOROSMARTY CJ, 2000, SCIENCE, V289, P284 WIGLEY TML, 1998, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V25, P2285 WILLSON RC, 2003, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V30 ZILLMAN J, 1997, IPCC VIEW INSIDE ZILLMAN J, 2003, 2003 YB AUSTR, P34 ZILLMAN J, 2003, OUR FUTURE CLIMATE W, P13 NR 71 TC 3 J9 ENVIRON SCI POLICY BP 548 EP 561 PY 2005 VL 8 IS 6 GA 991MD UT ISI:000233817200003 ER PT J AU ORiordan, T Jordan, A TI Institutions, climate change and cultural theory: towards a common analytical framework SO GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS LA English DT Article C1 Univ E Anglia, Sch Environm Sci, CSERGE, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. Univ Coll London, Ctr Social & Econ Res Global Environm, London, England. RP Jordan, A, Univ E Anglia, Sch Environm Sci, CSERGE, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. AB Institutions are the multitude of means for holding society together, for giving it a sense of purpose and for enabling it to adapt. Institutions help to define climate change both as a problem and a context, through such socialised devices as the use of scientific knowledge, culturally defined interpretation of scientific findings, and politically tolerable adaptation strategies. This paper briefly reviews the origins and current status of the 'new' institutional theories that have recently developed within the social sciences. The conclusion is that they are based on such contradictory interpretations of human behaviour that, although appealing, a complete synthesis will never be possible. In effect, there is a fundamental institutional 'failure' over the interpretation and resolution of climate change. Cultural theory helps to explain why this is the case by throwing light on the inherent contradictions that beset us all when confronted with global warming. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *WORLD COMM ENV DE, 1987, OUR COMM FUT ALLISON G, 1971, ESSENCE DECISION ARMSTRONG K, 1998, GOVERNANCE SINGLE EU BACHRACH P, 1963, AM POLIT SCI REV, V57, P632 BERGER P, 1967, SOCIAL CONSTRUCTION BOEHMERCHRISTIA.S, 1995, ENVIRON POLIT, V4, P1 BOHOLM A, 1996, ETHNOS, V61, P64 CRAWFORD SES, 1995, AM POLIT SCI REV, V89, P582 DAKE K, 1991, J CROSS CULT PSYCHOL, V22, P61 DOUGLAS M, 1970, NATURAL SYMBOLS DOUGLAS M, 1996, THOUGHT STYLES ELGIE R, 1997, POLIT STUD-LONDON, V45, P217 GERLACH LP, 1991, EVALUATION REV, V15, P120 GIDDENS A, 1984, CONSTITUTION SOC GRAFSTEIN R, 1992, I REALISM SOCIAL POL HALL PA, 1986, GOVERNING EC HALL PA, 1996, POLIT STUD-LONDON, V44, P936 HAY C, 1998, IN PRESS POLITICAL S JONES PD, 1997, ENVIRONMENT, V39, P42 JORDAN A, 1998, ENVIRON POLIT, V7, P227 JORDAN A, 1999, IN PRESS J COMMON MA, V37 JORDAN G, 1990, POLIT STUD-LONDON, V38, P470 KEOHANE R, 1989, INT I STATE POWER LOWNDES V, 1996, PUBLIC ADMIN, V74, P181 LUKES S, 1973, POWER RADICAL VIEW MARCH J, 1989, REDISCOVERING I MARCH JG, 1984, AM POLIT SCI REV, V78, P734 MARRIS C, 1996, 9607 CSERGE GEC MICHAELS PJ, 1998, ENVIRONMENT, V40, P4 ORIORDAN T, 1991, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V1, P91 ORIORDAN T, 1996, POLITICS CLIMATE CHA ORIORDAN T, 1997, ENVIRONMENT, V39, P34 ORIORDAN T, 1997, SCI RISK POLICY ORIORDAN T, 1998, HUMAN CHOICE CLIMATE, V1 PIERSON P, 1996, COMP POLIT STUD, V29, P123 POWELL WW, 1991, NEW I ORG ANAL RAYNER S, 1992, SOCIAL THEORIES RISK RAYNER S, 1994, 8 LOND SCH EC CTR ST SJOBERG L, 1995, 22 U STOCKH CTR RISK SKEA J, 1996, I GLOBAL DECISION MA STEINMO S, 1992, STRUCTURING POLITICS THOMPSON M, 1990, CULTURAL THEORY THOMPSON M, 1998, HUMAN CHOICE CLIMATE, V1, P265 WEALE A, 1992, NEW POLITICS POLLUTI WEAVER R, 1993, DO I MATTER WILDAVSKY A, 1994, J THEOR POLIT, V6, P131 WILDAVSKY A, 1997, CULTURE SOCIAL THEOR ZITO A, 1995, STATE EUROPEAN UNION, V3 NR 48 TC 9 J9 GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANGE BP 81 EP 93 PY 1999 PD JUL VL 9 IS 2 GA 179JW UT ISI:000079324400002 ER PT J AU Mutton, D Haque, CE TI Human vulnerability, dislocation and resettlement: Adaptation processes of river-bank erosion-induced displacees in Bangladesh SO DISASTERS LA English DT Article C1 Univ Manitoba, Nat Resources Inst, Winnipeg, MB R3T 2N2, Canada. RP Haque, CE, Univ Manitoba, Nat Resources Inst, 70 Dysart Rd, Winnipeg, MB R3T 2N2, Canada. AB The purpose of this research was to identify and analyse patterns of economic and social adaptation among river-bank erosion-induced displacees in Bangladesh. It was hypothesised that the role of social demographic and socio-economic variables in determining the coping ability and recovery of the river-bank erosion-induced displacees is quite significant. The findings of the research reveal that displacees experience substantial socio-economic impoverishment and marginalisation as a consequence of involuntary migration. This in part is a socially constructed process, reflecting inequitable access to land and other resources. Vulnerability to disasters is further heightened by a number of identifiable social and demographic factors including gender, education and age, although extreme poverty and marginalisation create complexity to isolate the relative influence of these variables. The need to integrate hazard analysis and mitigation with the broader economic and social context is discussed. It is argued that the capacity of people to respond to environmental threats is a function of not only the physical forces which affect them, but also of underlying economic and social relationships which increase human vulnerability to risk. Hazard analysis and mitigation can be more effective when it takes into account such social and demographic and socio-economic dimensions of disasters. 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Penn State Univ, Dept Geog, University Pk, PA 16802 USA. RP Polsky, C, Penn State Univ, Dept Geog, 1031 Route 28, N Branch, NJ 08876 USA. AB The Ricardian approach to estimating climate change impacts is an important technique for incorporating how adaptations modulate the overall effect. Past Ricardian work expresses climate sensitivities in terms of local effects only, ignoring the influence on adaptation of broader-scale social, environmental and economic factors. This paper extends the Ricardian approach to account for influences at multiple spatial scales. Results from multi-level modeling support the hypothesis that a county's Ricardian climate sensitivity is influenced not only by its climate but also by social factors associated with the climate of the agro-climatic zone in which it is located. The model estimates a non-linear, hill-shaped relationship between July maximum temperatures and agricultural land values, with initial increases beneficial in all counties but more beneficial in districts of high interannual temperature variability. Farmers and institutions in districts of high variability have therefore adapted to be more resilient to variability than farmers in areas of comparatively stable climate. However, the underlying reasons for this lessened vulnerability are unclear and may be associated with unsustainable land-use practices. Future research should investigate the precise form of these local and extra-local adaptations to determine if implementing the adaptations elsewhere would compromise agricultural system sustainability. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. CR *U TEX POP RES CTR, 1998, GREAT PLAINS POP ENV *USDA, 1995, AV VAL PER ACR FARM *USDOC, 2000, TABL CA1 3 PERS INC ANSELIN L, 1988, SPATIAL ECONOMETRICS ANSELIN L, 1998, HDB APPL EC STAT ANTLE JM, 1996, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V80, P67 BARNARD CH, 1997, AM J AGR ECON, V79, P1642 BRYK AS, 1992, HIERARCHICAL LINEAR CURRIE J, 1981, EC THEORY AGR LAND T DARWIN RF, 1999, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V41, P371 EASTERLING WE, 1997, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V7, P337 EASTERLING WE, 1998, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V90, P51 GARDNER BL, 1984, RISK MANAGEMENT AGR, P231 GEOGHEGAN J, 1998, PEOPLE PIXELS LINKIN GOLDSTEIN H, 1995, MULTILEVEL STAT MODE, V3 GUTMANN MP, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V44, P377 HANSEN JW, 2000, AGR SYST, V65, P43 HAYAMI Y, 1985, AGR DEV AGR PERSPECT HOX J, 1995, APPL MULTILEVEL ANAL JONE K, 1997, SPATIAL ANAL MODELLI KATES RW, 1985, CLIMATE IMPACT ASSES KAUFMANN RK, 1997, AM J AGR ECON, V79, P178 KREFT IGG, 1998, INTRO MULTILEVEL MOD LEWANDROWSKI JK, 1992, EC ISSUES GLOBAL CLI, P132 LOWRANCE R, 1986, AM J ALTERNATIVE AGR, V1, P169 MENDELSOHN R, 1993, COSTS IMPACTS BENEFI, P173 MENDELSOHN R, 1994, AM ECON REV, V84, P753 MENDELSOHN R, 1996, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V80, P55 MENDELSOHN R, 1999, IMPACT CLIMATE CHANG MOELLERING H, 1972, GEOGR ANAL, V4, P34 OLMSTEAD CW, 1968, P S QUANT METH GEOGR, P103 OSGOOD DW, 1995, EVALUATION REV, V19, P3 RAUDENBUSH S, 2000, HLM, V5 ROSENBERG NJ, 1987, GREAT PLAINS Q WIN, P22 ROSENBERG NJ, 1994, P 32 HANF S HLTH ENV ROSSUM S, 2000, PROF GEOGR, V52, P543 SCHNEIDER SH, 1997, ENVIRON MODEL ASSESS, V2, P229 SCHNEIDER SH, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P203 SEGERSON K, 1999, IMPACT CLIMATE CHANG SINCLAIR R, 1967, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V57, P72 SMIT B, 1996, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V33, P7 SMITHERS J, 1997, AGR RESTRUCTURING SU, P169 SNIJDERS TAB, 1999, MULTILEVEL ANAL INTR TURNER BL, 1991, INT SOC SCI J, V43, P669 TURNER BL, 1995, JOINT PUBLICATION IN VELDKAMP A, 1997, AGR SYST, V55, P1 WARRICK RA, 1980, CLIAMTIC CONSTRAINTS NR 47 TC 3 J9 AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON BP 133 EP 144 PY 2001 PD JUN VL 85 IS 1-3 GA 438PN UT ISI:000169062400009 ER PT J AU Koch, H Kaltofen, M Grunewald, U Messner, F Karkuschke, M Zwirner, O Schramm, M TI Scenarios of water resources management in the Lower Lusatian mining district, Germany SO ECOLOGICAL ENGINEERING LA English DT Article C1 Brandenburg Univ Technol Cottbus, Chair Hydrol & Water Resources Management, Cottbus, Germany. UFZ Ctr Environm Res Leipzig Halle, Dept Econ Sociol & Law, D-04301 Leipzig, Germany. WASY Ltd, Water Resources Planning & Syst Res, Branch Off Dresden, D-01309 Dresden, Germany. RP Koch, H, Brandenburg Univ Technol Cottbus, Chair Hydrol & Water Resources Management, POB 101344, Cottbus, Germany. AB The Spree and Schwarze Elster river catchments have been heavily influenced by excessive open-cast lignite mining for 100 years. The extent of the problem, concerning water quantity and quality, is a threat for the ecosystems and the commercial water users of the region and other areas located downstream. Climate change and socio-economic trends of global change may aggravate the conflicts. Scenarios of future development with specific adaptation measures are derived and modelled, using an "integrated assessment procedure". The methodological procedure and the models used are presented in this paper while first results are provided and future work is described. (c) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. CR *IPCC, 2001, CLIM CHANG 2001 SUMM BECKER A, 2001, P INT EC ENG C LINC, P26 GERSTENGARBE FW, 2003, 83 PIK GRUNEWALD U, 1996, ERARBEITUNG GROBAUSS GRUNEWALD U, 1997, HAUPTERGEBNISSE 1996 GRUNEWALD U, 1999, ERGEBNISSE 1997 1998 GRUNEWALD U, 2001, ECOL ENG, V17, P143 GRUNEWALD U, 2001, ZUSAMMENFASSUNG ERGE GRUNEWALD U, 2002, GERMAN PROGRAMME GLO HORSCH H, 2001, NACHHALTIGE WASSERBE KADEN S, 2000, LANDSCAPE URBAN PLAN, V51, P101 KADEN S, 2000, WASSERBEWIRTSCHAFTUN, P121 LEE TR, 1999, WATER MANAGEMENT 21 SCHRAMM M, 1994, WASSERBEWIRTSCAHFTUN, P7 STANNERS D, 1995, EUROPES ENV DOBRIS A, P712 VOGELE S, 2001, ANAL DTSCH STROMMARK NR 16 TC 1 J9 ECOL ENG BP 49 EP 57 PY 2005 PD JAN 30 VL 24 IS 1-2 GA 927BY UT ISI:000229168600006 ER PT J AU Woodward, A Hales, S Weinstein, P TI Climate change and human health in the Asia Pacific region: who will be most vulnerable? SO CLIMATE RESEARCH LA English DT Article C1 Univ Otago, Wellington Sch Med, Dept Publ Hlth, Wellington, New Zealand. RP Woodward, A, Univ Otago, Wellington Sch Med, Dept Publ Hlth, POB 7343, Wellington, New Zealand. AB Self-organising systems adapt to environmental change, and this ability modulates the relationship between specific exposures and outcomes. Vulnerability can be thought of as the sensitivity of the system to multiple exposures, taking into account the system's ability to adapt. This paper describes 5 causes of vulnerability to climate change in the Asia Pacific region: destructive growth, poverty, political rigidity, dependency and isolation. Impoverished populations are always at greater risk because they have fewer choices. However, rapid increases in population size, density of settlement and use of natural resources may also compromise responsiveness by damaging the buffering capacity of ecological systems against environmental adversity. Public health depends on a responsive social order. Political rigidity may have contributed to recent, severe impacts of climate-related disasters in parts of Asia. Dependency (such as reliance on others for information) is a potent cause of vulnerability because it justifies fatalism. Geographically isolated countries are tied firmly to international fortunes by the increased mobility of people and goads. Tn these modern circumstances remoteness may be a liability. Vulnerability to climate change win be shaped by many factors, but effects on health will undoubtedly be most severe in populations that are already marginal. For these populations, climate change is one further cause of 'over-load'. The problem of human-induced climate change is global in extent and is long term, but that should not deter policy-makers-measures taken to reduce the future impact of climate change will bring other benefits sooner. CR 1997, ASIA PACIFIC REV *INT FED RED CROSS, 1996, WORLD DIS REP 1996 *UN DEV PROGR, 1996, HUM DEV REP 1996 *UNEP, 1997, GLOB ENV OUTL, V1 *WORLD RES I, 1996, WORLD RES GUID GLOB AMADORE LA, 1996, WATER AIR SOIL POLL, V92, P1 BEGON M, 1990, ECOLOGY INDIVIDUALS CHEN RS, 1994, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V4, P3 DOWNING TE, 1992, 1 U OXF ENV CHANGE U DURIE M, 1994, WHAIORAMAORI HLTH DE FISCHER G, 1994, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V4, P7 FUKUMA Y, 1993, J METEOROL RES, V45, P159 HALES S, 1996, LANCET, V348, P1664 HOARE J, 1995, N KOREAN HOUGHTON JJ, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995 HUGO GJ, 1987, DEMOGRAPHIC DIMENSIO HUTCHING G, 1996, FOREST BIRD AUG, P14 LEAKEY R, 1996, 6 EXTINCTION LIFSON AR, 1996, LANCET, V347, P1201 MARTENS W, 1997, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V35, P146 MCGREGOR GR, 1990, UNEP REGIONAL SEAS R, V128, P25 MCMICHAEL AJ, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE HUMAN NUNN P, 1992, SPREP REPORTS STUDIE, V58 PARRY ML, 1993, LANCET, V342, P1345 PATZ JA, 1996, CLIMATE RES, V6, P113 PERNETTA JC, 1990, UNEP REGIONAL SEAS R, V128, P14 SEN AK, 1981, POVERTY FAMINES ESSA, V1, P1 TOMLINSON R, 1997, BRIT MED J, V314, P1147 WATSON RT, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, V1, P1 WEINSTEIN P, 1995, AUST NZ J MED, V25, P666 WILKINSON RG, 1997, BRIT MED J, V314, P591 NR 31 TC 8 J9 CLIMATE RES BP 31 EP 38 PY 1998 PD DEC 17 VL 11 IS 1 GA 168YF UT ISI:000078720200004 ER PT J AU Roncoli, C TI Ethnographic and participatory approaches to research on farmers' responses to climate predictions SO CLIMATE RESEARCH LA English DT Article C1 Univ Georgia, Ctr Res Environm Decis, Athens, GA 30605 USA. Univ Georgia, SE Climate Consortium, Athens, GA 30605 USA. RP Roncoli, C, Univ Georgia, Ctr Res Environm Decis, Athens, GA 30605 USA. AB This article synthesizes the state of the art in the application of ethnographic and participatory methods in climate application research, The review focuses on 2 aspects: (1) the cognitive and cultural landscape in which farmers' understanding of climate and climate information is grounded and (2) the decision-making processes and environment which shape farmers' adaptive strategies. The first part analyzes methods to elicit how farmers perceive and predict climate events and how these perspectives relate to scientific forecasts. It addresses the long-standing question of whether and how farmers understand the probabilistic nature of climate forecasts and how they assess the credibility and accuracy of such information. The second part examines approaches to characterizing the vulnerability of decision makers and to elucidating the configuration of options and obstacles that farmers face in using climate forecasts to mitigate risk. The complexities of farmers' decisions and the difficulties of identifying the exact role that climate predictions play (and, therefore, of directly attributing impacts to them) are taken into account. Finally, the review highlights efforts to transcend the localized focus of farmer-centered approaches in order to capture interactions across sectors and scales. The review concludes by proposing that climate application research move from a 'technology-adoption' paradigm to a broader perspective on vulnerability and adaptation. This shift will entail a cross-scale, multi-sited research design and an interdisciplinary mix of interactive and structured tools and techniques. It will also require that the analytical focus be expanded to encompass local communities and their multiple action spaces as well as the higher spheres of decision-making, where policy and science are shaped. 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DIM GLOB ENV CHA RONCOLI C, 2002, SOC NATUR RESOUR, V15, P411 RONCOLI C, 2004, WEATHER CLIMATE CULT, P181 RONCOLI C, 2005, AM ASS GEOGR ANN M D SCOONES I, 1994, FARMER 1 RURAL PEOPL SCOONES I, 1995, DEV CHANGE, V26, P67 SCOONES I, 1998, 72 U SUSS I DEV STUD SLOCUM R, 1995, POWER PROCESS PARTIC SOLESBURY W, 2003, SUSTAINABLE LIVELIHO SPRADLEY J, 1980, PARTICIPANT OBSERVAT STEPHEN L, 2001, DISASTERS, V25, P113 STERN PC, 1999, MAKING CLIMATE FOREC SUAREZ P, 2002, ANN M AFR STUD ASS B TARHULE A, 2003, B AM METEOROL SOC, V84, P1741 THOMPSON M, 1998, HUMAN CHOICE CLIMATE, V1, P265 THORNTON PK, 2004, CLIMATE RES, V26, P33 TRIBBIA J, 2002, LA NINA ITS IMPACTS, P39 TSCHAKERT P, 2004, AGR SYST, V81, P227 TSUJI GY, 1998, UNDERSTANDING OPTION VALDIVIA C, 2001, AEWP20014 U MISS DEP VALDIVIA C, 2003, INSIGHTS TOOLS ADAPT, P189 VALDIVIA CJ, 2001, P COMM CLIM FOR INF, P44 VOGEL C, 2000, S AFRICAN GEOGRAPHIC, V82, P107 WAISWA M, 2004, CLIMATE INFORM FOOD WASHINGTON R, 1999, GEOGR J 3, V165, P255 WERNER O, 1987, SYSTEMATIC FIELDWORK WOLF D, 1996, FEMINIST DILEMMAS FI YOHE GW, 2002, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V12, P25 ZIERVOGEL G, 2003, AREA, V35, P403 ZIERVOGEL G, 2004, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V65, P73 ZIERVOGEL G, 2004, GEOGR J 1, V170, P6 ZIERVOGEL G, 2005, AGR SYST, V83, P1 NR 155 TC 0 J9 CLIMATE RES BP 81 EP 99 PY 2006 PD DEC 21 VL 33 IS 1 GA 127KO UT ISI:000243584900008 ER PT J AU Dietz, T TI The Darwinian trope in the drama of the commons: variations on some themes by the Ostroms SO JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC BEHAVIOR & ORGANIZATION LA English DT Article C1 Michigan State Univ, Environm Sci & Policy Program, E Lansing, MI 48864 USA. RP Dietz, T, Michigan State Univ, Environm Sci & Policy Program, 273A Giltner Hall, E Lansing, MI 48864 USA. AB This paper focuses on several of the major themes and strategies from the work of the Ostroms on the topic of the commons. It decants some concepts and approaches that foreshadow how we might best build upon the foundations they have established, perhaps prompting a discussion that will suggest both the challenges for the next decade and how we might address them. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 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RP Kowalewski, SA, Univ Georgia, Dept Anthropol, Athens, GA 30602 USA. AB Explicit attention to scale provides ways to relate the long run of archaeology to the shorter moments of ethnography and history, and ways to link biology and ecology to political economy. In the Valley of Oaxaca, in southern Mexico, the long-term history of the aggregate, regional population was constrained by relatively stable factors of human biology and ecology. However, significant, patterned variation in shorter-term, disaggregated, local demographic change was caused by shifts in political economy, both in the past and in recent times. Such conclusions are made possible by an unusual dataset that combines recent, historical, and archaeological population estimates for a whole region covering a 3,500-year period, from initial settled villages to the present, for every place ever inhabited. CR *COL LEYES DECR, 1909, COL LEYES DECR EST L, V1 *CTR EST EC DEM, 1970, DIN POBL MEX *I NAC EST GEOGR I, 1984, 19 CENS GEN POBL VIV *I NAC EST GEOGR I, 1985, EST HIST MEX *I NAC EST GEOGR I, 1986, AN EST OAX 1985 *I NAC EST GEOGR I, 1986, OAX CUAD INF PLAN *I NAC EST GEOGR I, 1997, OAX DISTR CONT POBL ACUNA R, 1984, RELACIONES GEOGRAFIC ARANDA HC, 1977, CENSO POBLACION NUEV ARRIAGA EE, 1968, POPULATION MONOGRAPH ARRIAGA EE, 1970, POPULATION MONOGRAPH BALDERAS G, 1997, SEM REG URB STUD I T BILLMAN BR, 1999, SETTLEMENT PATTERN S BLANTON RE, 1999, ANCIENT OAXACA MONTE BORAH W, 1963, IBEROAMERICANA, V45 CERVANTES FJR, 1986, REVOLUCION OAXACA MO CERVANTES FJR, 1988, HIST CUESTION AGRARI, V1, P331 CHASSEN FR, 1990, LECT HIST ESTADO OAX, V4, P47 CHASSEN FR, 1990, LECT HIST ESTADO OAX, V4, P73 COATSWORTH JH, 1981, GROWTH DEV EC IMPACT COOK SF, 1979, ESSAYS POPULATION HI CORONA R, 1979, CUANTIFICACION NIVEL CULBERT TP, 1990, PRECOLUMBIAN POPULAT DEBURGOA F, 1934, GEOGRAFICA DESCRIPCI DECOSIO MEZ, 1992, HIST MEXICANA, V42, P103 DEERE CD, 1990, HOUSEHOLD CLASS RELA DENASSOS E, 1857, BIBLIOTECA MUSEO NAT FISH SK, 1990, ARCHAEOLOGY REGIONS FLANNERY KV, 1983, CLOUD PEOPLE DIVERGE FRIZZI R, 1990, LECT HIST ESTADO OAX, V4 GALARDI JMM, 1827, THESIS U TEXAS AUSTI GAMIO M, 1922, POBLACION VALLE TEOT GERHARD P, 1977, HIST MEXICANA, V26, P347 GERHARD P, 1977, HIST MEXICANA, V26, P395 GRACIDA MM, 1883, COLECCION CUADROS SI GRACIDA MM, 2003, COLECCION M GRACIDA, V48 GREENHALGH S, 1995, SITUATING FERTILITY, P259 GREGORY LM, 1990, LECT HIST ESTADO OAX, V4, P453 HASSAN FA, 1981, DEMOGRAPHIC ARCHAEOL HASSAN FA, 1994, HIST ECOLOGY, P155 HIGGINS MJ, 1981, ANTHR URBANISM POVER, V20 HODGES DC, 1989, MEMOIRS MUSEUM ANTHR, V22 HUESCA I, 1984, CUESTIONARIO DA BERG KAPPEL WW, 1977, THESIS U ARIZONA KERTZER DI, 1997, ANTHR DEMOGRAPHY NEW, P1 KNODEL JE, 1988, DEMOGRAPHIC BEHAV PA KOWALEWSKI SA, 1986, GUIAS CATALOGOS, V6 KOWALEWSKI SA, 1989, MEMOIRS MUSEUM ANTHR, V23 KOWALEWSKI SA, 1997, J ARCHAEOL METHOD TH, V4, P287 LEVINE D, 1987, REPROD FAMILIES POLI LOPEZ JLO, 1988, HIST CUESTION AGRARI, V2, P127 MALVIDO E, 1993, POBLAMIENTO MEXICO V, V3, P22 MARCUS J, 1996, ZAPOTEC CIVILIZATION MARQUEZ L, 1992, CUADERNOS SUR, V1, P71 MARTINEZ BG, 1969, MARQUESADO VALLE TRE MCCAA R, 1993, POBLAMIENTO MEXICO V, V3, P90 MEENTEMEYER V, 1987, LANDSCAPE HETEROGENE, P15 MEIXUEIRO AA, 1999, OAXACA REPARTO TIERR MIRANDA J, 1968, ESTUDIOS HIST NOVOHI, V2, P129 MURPHY AD, 1991, SOCIAL INEQUALITY OA PERRENOUD A, 1991, DECLINE MORTALITY EU, P18 PETERS GL, 1989, POPULATION GEOGRAPHY PIMENTEL LG, 2004, RELACION OBISPADOS T RAMIREZ HA, 1992, CIUDAD OAXACA CONOCI REAY B, 1996, MICROHISTORIES DEMOG REES M, 1991, URBAN ANTHROP, V20, P15 REVILLAGIGEDO JVG, 1831, INSTRUCCION RESERVAD SANCHEZ JAD, 1746, THEATRO AM DESCRIPCI SANDERS WT, 1965, CULTURAL ECOLOGY TEO SCHNEIDER JC, 1996, FESTIVAL POOR FERTIL STOREY R, 1992, LIFE DEATH ANCIENT C TAYLOR WB, 1972, LANDLORD PEASANT COL TRONCOSO FDY, 1905, PAPELES NUEVA ESPANA TRONCOSO FDY, 1981, PAPELES NUEVA ESPANA TURNER BL, 1990, HUNGER HIST FOOD SHO, P178 VALLIN J, 1991, DECLINE MORTALITY EU, P38 VASQUEZ M, 1985, REVOLUCION OAXACA 19 WHITECOTTON JW, 1977, ZAPOTECS PRINCES PRI WHITMORE TM, 1990, EARTH TRANSFORMED HU, P25 WHITMORE TM, 1992, DIS DEATH EARLY COLO WRIGLEY EA, 1983, PAST PRESENT, V98, P121 NR 81 TC 1 J9 AMER ANTHROPOL BP 313 EP 325 PY 2003 PD JUN VL 105 IS 2 GA 685CL UT ISI:000183243200006 ER PT J AU Roncoli, C Ingram, KT Kirshen, PH TI The costs and risks of coping with drought: livelihood impacts and farmers' responses in Burkina Faso SO CLIMATE RESEARCH LA English DT Article C1 Univ Georgia, Dept Crop & Soil Sci, Griffin, GA 30223 USA. Tufts Univ, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Medford, MA 02155 USA. Tufts Univ, Fletcher Sch Law & Policy, Medford, MA 02155 USA. RP Roncoli, C, Univ Georgia, Dept Crop & Soil Sci, 1109 Expt St, Griffin, GA 30223 USA. AB This paper analyzes the responses enacted by families of the Central Plateau in Burkina Faso during the year that followed a severe drought in 1997. We illustrate the agro-ecological and socio-economic contexts that shape livelihood options and constraints in an area characterized by high levels of climatic risk and low natural resource endowment. A description of farmers' perceptions and official accounts identifies key criteria whereby farmers formulate evaluations and predictions of a season. We document how food procurement and management practices are shaped by household resource access profiles and livelihood portfolios. Livelihood diversification, encompassing migration, non-farm work and social support networks, in addition to livestock production, is shown to be a critical dimension of adaptation. Livelihood and production adjustments entail costs and risks for most, but also gains for those who have the resources needed to take advantage of distress sales and high prices of agricultural commodities. Household livelihood and risk management increasingly hinge on efforts by household members who traditionally have had marginal access to resources, especially women, The research points to the need for closer integration of drought preparedness efforts, farmers' understanding of climate-crop interactions and interventions that bolster the capacity of resource-limited households to respond, Affordable grain, locally adapted seed varieties, labor saving technology and flexible credit are among the most needed inputs. CR *PNUD, 1997, RAPP DEV HUM DUR BUR ADAMS AM, 1998, AFRICA, V68, P263 BENSON C, 1998, WORLD FAMINE NEW APP, P241 BERRY S, 1989, AFRICA, V59, P41 BLAIKIE PM, 1994, RISK NATURAL HAZARDS, V1, P1 BRATTON M, 1987, DROUGHT HUNGER AFRIC, P214 BROCK K, 1999, 90 U SUSS I DEV STUD CAMPBELL DJ, 1990, FOOD FOODWAYS, V4, P143 CARTER MR, 1997, ECON DEV CULT CHANGE, V45, P557 CORBETT J, 1988, WORLD DEV, V16, P1099 CUTLER P, 1984, DISASTERS, V10, P181 DAVIES S, 1993, IDS BULL-I DEV STUD, V24, P60 DAVIS S, 1996, ADAPTABLE LIVELIHOOD DELGADO CL, 1989, Q J INT AGR, V28, P3 DERCON S, 1996, ECON DEV CULT CHANGE, V44, P485 DEVEREUX S, 1993, IDS BULL-I DEV STUD, V24, P52 DOWNING TE, 1990, DISASTERS, V14, P204 ELLIS F, 1998, J DEV STUD, V35, P1 FAFCHAMPS M, 1998, J DEV ECON, V55, P273 GRAY L, 1993, DEV CHANGE, V24, P159 HANSEN TS, 1998, DAN J GEOGR, V98, P56 HUSSEIN K, 1998, 69 U SUSS I DEV STUD INGRAM KT, 2002, IN PRESS AGR SYST JIGGINS J, 1986, IDS BULL-I DEV STUD, V17, P9 KEVANE M, 2000, WOMEN FARMERS COMMER, P89 LAMBERT RJ, 1994, DISASTERS, V18, P332 MCMILLAN D, 1986, FOOD SUBSAHARAN AFRI, P260 MORTIMORE MJ, 1989, ADAPTING DROUGHT FAR PAINTER T, 1994, AFRICA, V64, P447 REARDON T, 1988, WORLD DEV, V16, P1065 REARDON T, 1989, SEASONAL VARIABILITY, P118 REARDON T, 1996, WORLD DEV, V24, P901 RONCOLI C, 1999, ROLE RAINFALL INFORM RONCOLI C, 2001, IN PRESS SOC NAT RES, V15 SANDERS JH, 1990, ECON DEV CULT CHANGE, V39, P1 SCOONES I, 1998, 72 U SUSS I DEV STUD THORSEN D, 2000, AFR STUD ASS ANN M N TORRY WI, 1984, HUM ECOL, V12, P227 WHITEHEAD A, 1981, MARRIAGE MARKET WOME, P88 NR 39 TC 6 J9 CLIMATE RES BP 119 EP 132 PY 2001 PD DEC 4 VL 19 IS 2 GA 521BZ UT ISI:000173820000004 ER PT J AU Schembri, P TI Adaptation costs for sustainable development and ecological transitions: a presentation of the structural model M3ED with reference to French energy-economy-carbon dioxide emission prospects SO INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENT AND POLLUTION LA English DT Article C1 Univ Versailles St Quentin en Yvelines, Guyancourt, France. RP Schembri, P, Univ Versailles St Quentin en Yvelines, C2ED,47 Bd Vauban, Guyancourt, France. AB The aim of this paper is to assess the adaptation costs associated with the transition to a sustainable development path, taking the example of carbon dioxide emissions in the French economy. The model used is based on systems dynamics modelling and energy input-output analysis. This type of approach has the interesting property of precisely defining the nature of interactions between the different economic sectors, and between the economic sectors and the environment. This provides a framework within which to test different types of economic, technology and environment policy. In effect, according to our interests, it is necessary to measure problems of resources allocation or sequential choices between different alternatives: why and how a particular solution comes to be selected from a multiplicity of alternatives. First, we characterize the methodological and conceptual specification of the model. Secondly, we locate specific properties of the model linked with both ecological sustainability and economic feasability constraints. Thirdly, a sensitivity test is applied concerning different control policy scenarios for the case of carbon dioxide emissions in the French economy. 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RP Bessant, KC, Brandon Univ, Brandon, MB R7A 6A9, Canada. AB The collection of census information about pluriactivity or "part-time farming," as it was initially termed, began as early as the 1930s in the United States and the 1940s in Canada. Researchers have since moved beyond reporting basic descriptive statistics to detailed investigations of the various non-farm sources of total family income, types of off-farm employment, and underlying motivations. Although interest in the topic has waned somewhat, further analysis of pluriactive households is warranted, particularly in light of rural restructuring, farm depopulation, and the "farm crisis." Social scientists have pursued divergent lines of inquiry into the nature of pluriactivity; however, much of this work is related to Sustainable Rural Livelihoods (SRL) concepts such as adaptive strategies, diversification and resilience. This paper explores the utility of SRL analysis for interpreting the presence, persistence, and varied forms and functions of pluriactivity among Canadian farm households. 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STANFORD UNIV,INST INT STUDIES,STANFORD,CA 94305. NATL CTR ATMOSPHER RES,BOULDER,CO 80307. RP ROOT, TL, UNIV MICHIGAN,SCH NAT RESOURCES & ENVIRONM,ANN ARBOR,MI 48109. AB Natural and anthropogenic global changes are associated with substantial ecological disturbances. Multiscale interconnections among disciplines studying the biotic and abiotic effects of such disturbances are needed. Three research paradigms traditionally have been used and are reviewed here: scale-up, scale-down, and scale-up with embedded scale-down components. None of these approaches by themselves can provide the most reliable ecological assessments. A fourth research paradigm, called strategic cyclical scaling (SCS), is relatively more effective. SCS involves continuous cycling between large- and small-scale studies, thereby offering improved understanding of the behavior of complex environmental systems and allowing more reliable forecast capabilities for analyzing the ecological consequences of global changes. 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SCHLESINGER WH, 1991, BIOGEOCHEMISTRY ANAL SCHNEIDER SH, IN PRESS CLIMATE CHA SCHNEIDER SH, 1985, GLOBAL POSSIBLE RESO, P397 SCHNEIDER SH, 1995, P NATO ADV RES WORKS, P9 SHCNEIDER SH, 1984, COEVOLUTION CLIMATE, CH6 SHUGART HH, 1992, PACAAL WARMING BIOL, P147 SHUKLA J, 1982, SCIENCE, V215, P1498 SINHA SK, 1991, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V19, P201 SMITH JB, 1990, POTENTIAL EFFECTS GL SMITH SV, 1992, ANNU REV ECOL SYST, V23, P89 SMITH TM, 1992, GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANG, P93 STAMM JF, 1995, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V30, P295 TOWNSEND AR, 1992, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V22, P293 TRENBERTH KE, 1992, CLIMATE SYSTEM MODEL VANDEVENDER TR, 1994, HERPETOL NAT HIST, V2, P25 VITOUSEK, 1993, SCALING PHYSL PROCES, P173 WASHINGTON WM, 1986, INTRO 3 DIMENSIONAL WOODWARD FI, 1992, GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANG WRIGHT HE, 1993, GLOBAL CLIMATES SCIN NR 148 TC 62 J9 SCIENCE BP 334 EP 341 PY 1995 PD JUL 21 VL 269 IS 5222 GA RK427 UT ISI:A1995RK42700030 ER PT J AU Pattanayak, SK Sills, EO TI Do tropical forests provide natural insurance? The microeconomics of non-timber forest product collection in the Brazilian Amazon SO LAND ECONOMICS LA English DT Article C1 Res Triangle Inst, Ctr Regulatory Econ & Policy, Res Triangle Pk, NC 27709 USA. N Carolina State Univ, Dept Forestry, Raleigh, NC 27695 USA. RP Pattanayak, SK, Res Triangle Inst, Ctr Regulatory Econ & Policy, Res Triangle Pk, NC 27709 USA. AB Tropical forests may contribute to the well-being of local people by providing a form of "natural insurance." We draw on microeconomic theory to conceptualize a model relating agricultural risks to collection of non-timber forest products. Forest collection trips are positively correlated with both agricultural shocks and expected agricultural risks in an event-count model of sun,ey data from the Brazilian Amazon. This suggests that households rely on forests to mitigate agricultural risk. Forest product collection may be less important to households with other consumption-smoothing options, but its importance is not restricted to the poorest households. 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Water Resources Branch, Mbabane, Swaziland. RP Matondo, JI, Univ Swaziland, Dept Geog Environm Sci & Planning, Private Bag 4, Kwaluseni, Swaziland. AB The enhanced greenhouse gas effect is expected to cause high temperature increase globally (1.0-3.5 degrees C) and this will lead to an increase in precipitation in some regions while other regions will experience reduced precipitation (+/- 20%). The impact of expected climate change will affect almost all aspects of human endeavour. The major focus of this paper is management of water resources under climate change for peace and prosperity in Swaziland. The impact of climate change on hydrology and water resources has been evaluated using general circulation model (GCM) results (rainfall, potential evapotranspiration, air temperature, etc.) as inputs to a rainfall runoff model. The evaluation of the effect of climate change on hydrology and water resources in Swaziland has been carried out in three catchments namely: Mbuluzi, Komati and Ngwavuma. MAGICC model was used to simulate the climate parameters for Swaziland given the baseline conditions. Eleven GCMs were evaluated and three of them were found to simulate very well the observed precipitation for Swaziland. These GCMs are: the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL), the United Kingdom Transient Resalient (UKTR) and the Canadian Climate Change Equilibrium (CCC-EQ). The three GCMs were used to project the temperature and precipitation changes for Swaziland for year 2075. This information was used to generate the temperature, precipitation and potential evapotranspiration values for the three catchments for year 2075. This information was used as input data to a calibrated WatBall rainfall runoff model. Simulation results (after taking into consideration water use projections) show a water deficit from June to September in both the Komati and Ngwavuma catchments and a water deficit from May to September in the Mbuluzi catchment. Efficient water utilization in the agricultural sector (i.e., using drip irrigation) gives a water savings of 33.6 x 10(6) m(3) per year (1.065 m(3)/s), 47.6 x 10(6) m(3) per year (1.509 m(3)/s) and 16.8 x 10(6) m(3) per year (0.533 m(3)/s) in the Komati, Mbuluzi and Ngwavurna catchments, respectively. The saved water could be used for other economic activities and meeting Swaziland's water release obligations to downstream riparian states of South Africa and Mozambique. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 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RP Xiong, W, Chinese Acad Agr Sci, Inst Environm & Sustainable Dev Agr, Beijing 100081, Peoples R China. AB Identification of 'critical thresholds' of temperature increase is an essential task for inform policy decisions on establishing greenhouse gas (GHG) emission targets. We use the A2 (medium-high GHG emission pathway) and B2 (medium-low) climate change scenarios produced by the Regional Climate Model PRECIS, the crop model - CERES, and socio-economic scenarios described by IPCC SRES, to simulate the average yield changes per hectare of three main grain crops (rice, wheat, and maize) at 50 km x 50 km scale. The threshold of food production to temperature increases was analyzed based on the relationship between yield changes and temperature rise, and then food security was discussed corresponding to each IPCC SRES scenario. The results show that without the CO2 fertilization effect in the analysis, the yield per hectare for the three crops would fall consistently as temperature rises beyond 2.5 degrees C; when the CO2 fertilization effect was included in the simulation, there were no adverse impacts on China's food production under the projected range of temperature rise (0.9-3.9 degrees C). A critical threshold of temperature increase was not found for food production. When the socio-economic scenarios, agricultural technology development and international trade were incorporated in the analysis, China's internal food production would meet a critical threshold of basic demand (300 kg/capita) while it would not under A2 (no CO2 fertilization); whereas basic food demand would be satisfied under both A2 and B2, and would even meet a higher food demand threshold required to sustain economic growth (400 kg/capita) under B2, when CO2 fertilization was considered. CR *ED COMM CHIN AGR, 1997, CHIN AGR YB *FAO UNESCO, 1988, 60 FAO UNESCO *IPCC, 1994, PART IPCC SPEC REP 1, P59 *UK CLIM IMP PROGR, 2002, CLIM CHANG SCEN UK U, P45 *UN, 2004, WORLD POP PROSP 2004 ALEXANDRATOS N, 1999, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V96, P5908 ANDRE M, 1993, PLANT PHYSIOL BIOCH, V31, P103 ARNELL NW, 2003, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V14, P3 BACHELET D, 1993, SYSTEMS APPROACHES A, P145 BROWN LR, 1995, WHO WILL FEED CHINA, P163 CHOLAW B, 2003, ADV ATMOS SCI, V20, P755 CHOLAW B, 2003, CHINESE SCI BULL, V48, P1024 CURE JD, 1986, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V38, P127 DARWIN RF, 1995, 703 USDA DEJAN R, 2003, COMPUT GEOSIC, V29, P115 ELLIS EC, 1997, AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON, V61, P177 FISCHER G, 2002, CLIMATE CANGE AGR VU FROLKING S, 2002, GLOBAL BIOGEOCHEM CY, V16 GAFFIN SR, 2004, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V14, P105 GALE F, USDA AGR INFORM B, V775 GEWIN V, 2002, NATURE, V417, P112 GODWIN SL, 1989, USERS GUIDE CERES WH HARRISON PA, 2000, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V101, P167 HITZ S, 2004, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V14, P201 HOOGENBOOM G, 1995, ASA SPEC PUBL, V59, P59 HOOGENBOOM G, 1999, P INT S MOD CROPP SY, P201 HORIE T, 2000, CLIMATE CHANGE GLOBA, P81 HOUGHTON JT, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, P525 HULME M, 1999, CLIMATE CHANGE SCENA, P6 JONES RG, 2004, GENERATING HIGH RESO, P35 KENNY GJ, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V46, P91 KIMBALL BA, 1983, AGRON J, V75, P779 KNOX JW, 2000, NUTR CYCL AGROECOSYS, V58, P179 LIN ED, 2005, PHILOS T ROY SOC B, V360, P2149 LIU JY, 2002, J GEOGRAPHICAL SCI, V12, P275 MAAYAR ME, 1997, AGR FOR METEOROL, V85, P193 MALL RK, 2004, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V121, P113 MATTHEWS RB, 2000, NUTR CYCL AGROECOSYS, V58, P161 MAYTIN CE, 1995, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V29, P189 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 MENDELSOHN R, 1999, WORLD BANK RES OBSER, V14, P277 NAKICENOVIC N, 2000, SPECIAL REPORT EMISS PARRY ML, 1999, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V9, P51 PARRY ML, 1996, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V6, P1 PINTER PJ, 1996, CARBON DIOXIDE TERRE, P215 PRASAD E, 2004, CHINAS GROWTH INTEGR PRIESTLEY CHB, 1972, MON WEATHER REV, V100, P81 QIU J, 2003, GEOCARTO INT, V18, P3 RITCHIE JT, 1989, USERS GUIDE CERES MA RITCHIE JT, 1998, UNDERSTANDING OPTION, P79 ROSENZWEIG C, 1995, CLIMATE CHANGES INT, P27 ROSENZWEIG C, 1999, ENVIRON MODEL ASSESS, V4, P115 ROWELL DP, 2004, 49 HADL CTR MET OFF SAMARAKOON AB, 1995, J BIOGEOGR, V22, P193 SAMARAKOON AB, 1996, AUST J PLANT PHYSIOL, V23, P53 SINGH U, 1993, USERS GUIDE CERES RI, P131 SINHA SK, 1992, CLIMATE CHANGE SCI I, P98 SMITH JB, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, P913 TAO F, 2003, AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON, V95, P203 TAO F, 2003, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V118, P251 TAO FL, 2006, IN PRESS 1981 2000 A TONG CL, 2003, AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON, V95, P523 TSUJI GY, 1994, DECISION SUPPORT SYS VANLIESHOUT M, 2004, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V14, P87 WANG Q, 1995, J ENVIRON MANAGE, V47, P283 WOLF J, 1995, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V29, P299 WU YH, 1989, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V49, P9 XIAO XM, 2005, REMOTE SENS ENVIRON, V95, P480 XIONG W, 2005, CHIN J AGROMETEOROL, V26, P11 XU YL, 2004, P INT WORKSH PRED FO, P17 NR 70 TC 0 J9 CLIMATIC CHANGE BP 205 EP 221 PY 2007 PD MAR VL 81 IS 2 GA 142XR UT ISI:000244685100004 ER PT J AU Nicholls, RJ TI Coastal flooding and wetland loss in the 21st century: changes under the SRES climate and socio-economic scenarios SO GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS LA English DT Article C1 Middlesex Univ, Flood Hazard Res Ctr, Enfield EN3 4SF, Middx, England. RP Nicholls, RJ, Middlesex Univ, Flood Hazard Res Ctr, Enfield EN3 4SF, Middx, England. AB This paper considers the implications of a range of global-mean sea-level rise and socio-economic scenarios on: (1) changes in flooding by storm surges; and (2) potential losses of coastal wetlands through the 21st century. These scenarios are derived from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). Four different storylines are analysed: the A1FI, A2, B 1 and B2 'worlds'. The climate scenarios are derived from the HadCM3 climate model driven by the SRES emission scenarios. The SRES scenarios for global-mean sea-level rise range from 22 cm (B I world) to 34 cm (A1FI world) by the 2080s, relative to 1990. All other climate factors, including storm characteristics, are assumed to remain constant in the long term. Population and GDP scenarios are downscaled from the SRES regional analyses supplemented with other relevant scenarios for each impact analysis. The flood model predicts that about 10 million people/year experienced coastal flooding due to surges in 1990. The incidence of flooding will change without sea-level rise, but these changes are strongly controlled by assumptions on protection. Assuming that defence standards improve with growth in GDP/capita (lagged by 30 years), flood incidence increases in all four cases to the 2020s due to the growing exposed population. Then to the 2080s, the incidence of flooding declined significantly to less than or equal to 5 million people/year in the B2 world, less than or equal to 2 million people/year in the B I world and less than or equal to I million people/year in the A1FI world due to improving defence standards. In contrast, flood incidence continues to increase in the A2 world to the 2050s, and in the 2080s it is still 18-30 million people/year. This reflects the greater exposure and more limited adaptive capacity of the A2 world, compared to the other SRES storylines. Sea-level rise increases the flood impacts in all cases although significant impacts are not apparent until the 2080s when the additional people flooded are 7-10 million, 29-50 million, 2-3 million and 16-27 million people/year under the A1FI, A2, B I and B2 worlds, respectively. Hence, the A2 world also experiences the highest increase in the incidence of flooding. This is true under all the realistic scenario combinations that were considered demonstrating that socio-economic factors can greatly influence vulnerability to sea-level rise. The trends of the results also suggest that flood impacts due to sea-level rise could become much more severe through the 22nd century in all cases, especially in the A1F1 world. Note that impacts using a climate model with a higher climate sensitivity would produce larger impacts than HadCM3. Coastal wetlands will be lost due to sea-level rise in all world futures with 5-20% losses by the 2080s in the A1FI world. However, these losses are relatively small compared to the potential for direct and indirect human destruction. Thus, the difference in environmental attitudes between the A1/A2 worlds and the B1/B2 worlds would seem to have more important implications for the future of coastal wetlands, than the magnitude of the sea-level rise scenarios during the 21st Century. These results should be seen as broad analysis of the sensitivity of the coastal system to the HadCM3 SRES global-mean sea-level rise scenarios. While these impact estimates are only for one climate model, for both impact factors they stress the importance of socio-economic conditions and other non-climate factors as a fundamental control on the magnitude of impacts both with and without sea-level rise. The A2 world experiences the largest impacts during the 21st century, while the B1 world has the smallest impacts, with the differences more reflecting socio-economic factors than climate change. This suggests that the role of development pathways in influencing the impacts of climate change needs to be given more attention. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 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Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res, D-14473 Potsdam, Germany. RP Fussel, HM, Stanford Univ, Ctr Environm Sci & Policy, Stanford, CA 94305 USA. AB Vulnerability is an emerging concept for climate science and policy. Over the past decade, efforts to assess vulnerability to climate change triggered a process of theory development and assessment practice, which is reflected in the reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). This paper reviews the historical development of the conceptual ideas underpinning assessments of vulnerability to climate change. We distinguish climate impact assessment, first- and second-generation vulnerability assessment, and adaptation policy assessment. The different generations of assessments are described by means of a conceptual framework that defines key concepts of the assessment and their analytical relationships. The purpose of this conceptual framework is two-fold: first, to present a consistent visual glossary of the main concepts underlying the IPCC approach to vulnerability and its assessment; second, to show the evolution of vulnerability assessments. This evolution is characterized by the progressive inclusion of non-climatic determinants of vulnerability to climate change, including adaptive capacity, and the shift from estimating expected damages to attempting to reduce them. We hope that this paper improves the understanding of the main approaches to climate change vulnerability assessment and their evolution, not only within the climate change community but also among researchers from other scientific communities, who are sometimes puzzled by the unfamiliar use of technical terms in the context of climate change. 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RP Takarada, Y, Nanzan Univ, Fac Policy Studies, 27 Seirei Cho, Seto, Aichi 4890863, Japan. AB We examine the welfare effects of a transfer of pollution abatement technology in a two-country model. In each country, one industry discharges pollution as a byproduct of output, and the sum of domestic and cross-border pollution decreases the productivity of the other industry. We show the effects of technology transfer on the terms of trade, pollution levels, and welfare. Technology transfer decreases the pollution affecting each country under certain conditions. We derive and interpret the conditions under which technology transfer enriches the donor and the recipient. The results essentially depend on the trade pattern and the fraction of cross-border pollution. CR MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 *MOFA, 2003, JAP OFF DEV ASS ANN *OECD, 2001, OECD ENV OUTL BENARROCH M, 2001, J INT ECON, V55, P139 BHAGWATI JN, 1998, LECT INT TRADE BRAKMAN S, 1998, EC INT TRANSFERS BUCHHOLZ W, 1994, J ECON, V60, P299 CHAO CC, 1999, J DEV ECON, V59, P553 COPELAND BR, 1999, J INT ECON, V47, P137 COPELAND BR, 2003, TRADE ENV HELPMAN E, 1984, HDB INT EC, V1 HERBERG H, 1969, CANADIAN J EC, V2, P403 HERBERG H, 1982, J INT ECON, V13, P65 ITOH A, 2003, PAP REG SCI, V82, P519 KEMP MC, 1995, GAINS TRADE GAINS AI NAITO T, 2003, J ECON, V80, P161 RAUSCHER M, 1997, INT TRADE FACTOR MOV STRANLUND JK, 1996, J ECON, V64, P1 UNTEROBERDOERSTER O, 2001, J ENVIRON ECON MANAG, V41, P269 NR 19 TC 0 J9 J ECON BP 251 EP 275 PY 2005 PD SEP VL 85 IS 3 GA 968LA UT ISI:000232162800002 ER PT J AU DEARDEN, P HARRON, S TI ALTERNATIVE TOURISM AND ADAPTIVE CHANGE SO ANNALS OF TOURISM RESEARCH LA English DT Article RP DEARDEN, P, UNIV VICTORIA,VICTORIA V8W 2Y2,BC,CANADA. AB This paper discusses one example of alternative tourism, trekking in Northern Thailand, to assess the nature of the interaction between the changes in the attraction and the motivations of the client group. Visitation does reduce the authenticity of the villagers, yet several adaptive strategies are successfully employed by the companies to counteract this. A survey of trekkers revealed high satisfactions, yet motivations are changing to emphasize the authenticity of the entire experience rather than the ethnic authenticity of the hilltribes. A transformation is taking place from primary ethnic tourism to cultural tourism with a strong recreational emphasis. While this bodes well for future sustainability, hilltribe response and involvement remain minimal. 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RP Carey, M, Univ Calif Davis, Dept Hist, Davis, CA 95616 USA. AB Human populations worldwide are vulnerable to natural disasters. Certain conditions-such as geographical location or people's income level-can affect the degree to which natural disasters impact people's homes and livelihoods. This paper suggests that vulnerability to natural disasters increases when local people, scientists, and policymakers do not communicate and trust each other. Additionally, a breakdown in interaction and confidence among these groups can disrupt the implementation of sound science or well-intentioned policies. This case study analyzes how local people, scientists, and government officials responded to glacier hazards in Peru's Cordillera Blanca mountain range. Cordillera Blanca glacier retreat since the late-19th century has triggered some of the world's most deadly avalanches and glacial lake outburst floods. Although a Peruvian glaciology and lakes security office has "controlled' 35 Cordillera Blanca glacial lakes, 30 glacier disasters have killed nearly 30,000 people in this region since 1941. A lack of local faith in government officials and scientists as well as the State's failure to follow scientists' warnings about potential disasters have endangered or led to the death of thousands of local residents, many of which remain living in hazard zones today. (c) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. CR 1941, COMERCIO 0430, P3 1941, DANOS CAUSADOS DESBO 1943, DEPARTMENTO 1118, P2 1945, COMERCIO 0129, P11 1945, COMERCIO 0209, P4 1945, COMERCIO 1219, P17 1945, PUEBLO 0121, P2 1951, DEPARTAMENTO 0811, P2 1951, DEPARTAMENTO 0823, P2 1952, DEPARTAMENTO 0206, P2 1952, DEPARTAMENTO 0211, P1 1955, HORA 0704, P2 1962, DEPARTAMENTO 0929, P2 1962, DEPARTAMENTO 1001, P2 1970, DIARIO HUARAZ 0720, P2 1970, DIARIO HUARAZ 0723, P4 1970, PRENSA 0711 1971, DIARIO HUARAZ 0107, P3 1971, DIARIO HUARAZ 0330, P2 1974, DIARIO HUARAZ 1127, P1 2003, CONSIDERAN ALARMISTA *AFDB, 2002, POV CLIM CHANG RED V *BBC NEWS, 2003, MELT GLAC THREAT PER *EL, 1984, INF BAS LAB REAL UN MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 *UGRH, 2003, EST SIT LAG PALC ALLEY R, 2000, 2 MILE TIME MACHINE AMES A, 1995, B I FR ETUDES ANDINE, V24, P37 AMES BN, 1999, FOOD SCI AGR CHEM, V1, P1 ARNAO BM, 1998, B SOC GEOGR LIMA, V111, P7 BENN DI, 2001, J GLACIOL, V47, P626 BHATTACHARYA S, 2003, NEW SCI 0415 CLAGUE JJ, 2000, QUATERNARY SCI REV, V19, P1763 CONCHA JF, 1957, B SOC GEOL PERU, V32, P87 CRUIKSHANK J, 2001, ARCTIC, V54, P377 DAVID E, 1994, HARVEST COLD MONTHS DE US, 2004, NAT HAZARDS, V31, P487 FAGAN B, 2000, LITTLE ICE AGE CLIMA GEORGES C, 2004, ARCT ANTARCT ALP RES, V36, P100 GROVE JM, 1987, GEOGR J, V153, P351 GROVE JM, 1988, LITTLE ICE AGE HUYBRECHTS P, 1999, J CLIMATE 1, V12, P2169 IGLESIAS LS, 1942, COMMUNICATION 0715 KASER G, 1990, ANN GLACIOL, V14, P136 KASER G, 1997, ANN GLACIOL, V24, P344 KASER G, 2001, J GLACIOL, V47, P195 KASER G, 2002, TROPICAL GLACIERS KASER G, 2003, POTENTIAL DISASTER I KATTELMANN R, 2003, NAT HAZARDS, V28, P145 LADURIE LL, 1971, TIMES FEAST TIMES FA LAVELL A, 1996, ESTADO SOC GESTION D LLIBOUTRY L, 1977, J GLACIOL, V18, P239 LUCAR S, 1942, COMMUNICATION 0116 LUNA IE, 1941, COMMUNICATION 0526 LUYO MZ, 2002, ACTA MONT, V19, P37 MALLON FE, 1992, J LAT AM STUD, V24, P35 MARTOS IMS, 1997, PROTECCION CLIMA ROL MASKREY A, 1993, DESASTRES SON NATURA MCINTOSH RJ, 2000, WAY WIND BLOWS CLIMA, P1 MOOL, 2001, MT DEV PROFILE, P2 OCHOA H, 1943, DEPARTAMENTO 1218, P2 OLIVERSMITH A, 1986, MARTYRED CITY DEATH ORLOVE BS, 1993, SOC RES, V60, P301 PIZARRO ME, 1962, B SOC GEOGR IMA, V79, P55 PIZARRO ME, 1962, DEPARTAMENTO 1002, P3 POOLE D, 1997, VISION RACE MODERNIT PORTOCARRERO C, 1995, B I ETUDES ANDINES, V24, P697 PRIETO RP, 2002, VIDA MUERTE RESURREC REYNOLDS JM, 1993, NATURAL DISASTERS PR, P38 RICHARDSON S, 2000, DEBRIS COVERED GLACI, P187 RICHARDSON SD, 2000, QUATERN INT, V65, P31 STEINBERG T, 2000, ACTS GOD UNNATURAL H STEINBERG T, 2002, AM HIST REV, V107, P798 THOMPSON LG, 1995, SCIENCE, V269, P46 TRACK PD, 1953, B SOC GEOGR LIMA, V70, P5 TUFNELL L, 1984, TOPICS APPL GEOGRAPH NR 76 TC 1 J9 GLOBAL PLANET CHANGE BP 122 EP 134 PY 2005 PD JUL VL 47 IS 2-4 GA 962SQ UT ISI:000231753100006 ER PT J AU Klein, RJT Smit, MJ Goosen, H Hulsbergen, CH TI Resilience and vulnerability: Coastal dynamics or Dutch dikes? SO GEOGRAPHICAL JOURNAL LA English DT Article C1 Free Univ Amsterdam, Inst Environm Studies, NL-1081 HV Amsterdam, Netherlands. Natl Inst Coastal & Marine Management, NL-2500 EX The Hague, Netherlands. Delft Hydraul, NL-2600 MH Delft, Netherlands. RP Klein, RJT, Free Univ Amsterdam, Inst Environm Studies, De Boelelaan 1115, NL-1081 HV Amsterdam, Netherlands. AB This paper describes coastal resilience as a measure of the extent to which a coast is able to respond to external pressures without losing actual or potential functions. Such usage of the term gives coastal scientists, planners and managers a new opportunity to express complex coastal dynamics in a simple aggregated form. Coastal resilience has morphological, ecological and socio-economic components, each of which represents another aspect of the coastal system's adaptive capacity to perturbations. Enhancing coastal resilience is increasingly viewed as a cost-effective way to prepare for uncertain future changes while maintaining opportunities for coastal development. The Netherlands has known a long tradition of controlling natural coastal processes by stringent dune management and building hard sea-defence structures. However, both socio-economic and natural adaptive processes have become constrained owing to the limited availability of land and the diminished coastal resilience that has resulted from technological solutions and legal provisions. The recent study Growing with the Sea proposes to restore natural coastal processes along the Dutch coast and let natural and socio-economic systems interact more dynamically. It explores possibilities of enhancing coastal resilience in The Netherlands by allowing managed retreat in areas where it is environmentally acceptable and reclaiming land in other areas. 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SO WORLD DEVELOPMENT LA English DT Article C1 Ctr Int Forestry Res, Jakarta, Indonesia. RP Wunder, S, Ctr Int Forestry Res, Jakarta, Indonesia. AB This paper explores the "state-of-the-art" of the two-way causal links between poverty alleviation and natural tropical forests. Microimpacts of rising poverty can increase or slow forest loss. At the macrolevel, poverty also has an ambiguous effect, but it is probable that higher income stimulates forest loss by raising demand for agricultural land. The second question is what potential forest-led development has to alleviate a country's poverty, in terms of producer benefits, consumer benefits and economy-wide employment. Natural forests widely serve as "safety nets" for the rural poor, but it proves difficult to raise producer benefits significantly. Urban consumer benefits from forest, an important target for pro-poor agricultural innovation, are limited and seldom favor the poor. Absorption of (poor) unskilled labor is low in forestry, which tends to be capital-intensive. Natural forests may thus lack comparative advantage for poverty alleviation. There are few "win-win" synergies between natural forests and national poverty reduction, which may help to explain why the loss of tropical forests is ongoing. This may have important implications for our understanding of "sustainable forest development" and for the design of both conservation and poverty-alleviation strategies. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. 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Univ Oxford, Sch Geog & Environm, Oxford OX1 3TB, England. RP Mitchell, TD, Univ E Anglia, Sch Environm Sci, Tyndall Ctr Climate Change Res, Norwich NR4 7BL, Norfolk, England. CR ARRHENIUS S, 1896, LONDON EDINBURGH DUB, V41, P237 ARRHENIUS S, 1896, P ROYAL SWEDISH ACAD, V22 BARNETT J, 2001, CLIMATE DANGERS ATOL GIORGI F, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 KELLOGG WW, 1987, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V10, P113 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 NEW M, 1999, J CLIMATE, V12, P829 NEW M, 2000, J CLIMATE, V13, P2217 STANHILL G, 2001, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V48, P515 TYNDALL J, 1863, PHILOS MAG, V4, P200 WATSON RT, 1998, REGIONAL IMPACTS CLI, V1, P1 WHITE KS, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 NR 12 TC 9 J9 AREA BP 109 EP 112 PY 2002 PD MAR VL 34 IS 1 GA 539CN UT ISI:000174852300012 ER PT J AU Adger, WN Arnell, NW Tompkins, EL TI Successful adaptation to climate change across scales SO GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS LA English DT Article C1 Univ E Anglia, Sch Environm Sci, Tyndall Ctr Climate Change Res, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. Univ E Anglia, CSERGE, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. Univ Southampton, Sch Geog, Southampton, Hants, England. RP Adger, WN, Univ E Anglia, Sch Environm Sci, Tyndall Ctr Climate Change Res, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. AB Climate change impacts and responses are presently observed in physical and ecological systems. Adaptation to these impacts is increasingly being observed in both physical and ecological systems as well as in human adjustments to resource availability and risk at different spatial and societal scales. We review the nature of adaptation and the implications of different spatial scales for these processes. We outline a set of normative evaluative criteria for judging the success of adaptations at different scales. We argue that elements of effectiveness, efficiency, equity and legitimacy are important in judging success in terms of the sustainability of development pathways into an uncertain future. We further argue that each of these elements of decision-making is implicit within presently formulated scenarios of socio-economic futures of both emission trajectories and adaptation, though with different weighting. The process by which adaptations are to be judged at different scales will involve new and challenging institutional processes. (C) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 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CR *UNEP, 1982, ENV 1982 RETR PROSP *WCP, 1986, WMO661 *WORLD COMM ENV D, 1987, OUR COMM FUT ALCAMO J, 1985, J ENVIRON MANAGE, V21, P47 BROOKS H, 1986, SUSTAINABLE DEV BIOS, P325 BURTON I, 1978, ENV HAZARD, V1, P1 BURTON I, 1983, ECOVILLE URBANIZATIO CLARK WC, TASK FORCE M RISK PO, P287 CLARK WC, 1985, WP8543 INT I APPL SY CLARK WC, 1986, SUSTAINABLE DEV BIOS CLARK WC, 1986, UNPUB SCENARIO GLOBA DICKINSON RE, 1986, SUSTAINABLE DEV BIOS, P252 FARMAN JC, 1985, NATURE, V315, P207 GLANTZ M, RESOURCE MANAGEMENT, P449 GUMBEL EJ, 1981, STATISTICS EXTREMES GWYNNE MD, 1983, ADV SPACE RES, V2, P81 HAGERSTRAND T, 1987, 871 SWED COUNC PLANN HARRIS JM, 1984, GEOPHYSICAL MONITORI, P22 HASHIMOTO T, 1982, WATER RESOUR RES, V18, P14 HOLDGATE M, 1982, WORLD ENV 1972 1982 HOLLING CS, 1973, ANNUAL REV ECOLOGY S, V4, P1 HOLLING CS, 1978, ADAPTIVE ENV ASSESSM HOLLING CS, 1986, SUSTAINABLE DEV BIOS, V1, P1 HUTCHINSON TC, 1986, WATER AIR SOIL POLL, V28, P319 KHALIL MAK, 1985, ATMOS ENVIRON, V19, P397 LINDBLOM CE, 1979, USABLE KNOWLEDGE SOC MCLAREN DJ, 1987, RESOURCES WORLD DEV MUNN RE, 1986, GEOGRAPHY RESOURCES, V2, P326 ORIORDAN T, 1984, IIUG8414 INT I ENV S ORIORDAN, 1985, IIUG851 INT I ENV SO RASMUSSEN RA, 1984, J GEOPHYS RES, V89, P11599 SMITH RA, 1987, SCIENCE, V235, P1607 STIGLIANI W, 1987, UNPUB PROSPECTUS IIA TIMMERMAN P, 1981, ENV MONOGRAPH, V1, P1 TIMMERMAN P, 1986, SUSTAINABLE DEV BIOS, P435 TOLBA MK, 1979, UNEP INFORMATION B, V47 VOLKER IA, 1986, COMMUNICATION WALTERS CJ, 1986, ADAPTIVE MANAGEMENT WASHINGTON WM, 1984, J GEOPHYS RES-ATMOSP, V89, P9475 WIGLEY TML, 1986, NOV CEC S CO2 OTH GR NR 40 TC 0 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE BP 203 EP 218 PY 1988 PD MAY VL 33 IS 3 GA P5256 UT ISI:A1988P525600002 ER PT J AU Kurukulasuriya, P Ajwad, MI TI Application of the Ricardian technique to estimate the impact of climate change on smallholder farming in Sri Lanka SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 Yale FES, New Haven, CT 06511 USA. World Bank, Washington, DC 20433 USA. RP Kurukulasuriya, P, Yale FES, 210 Prospect St, New Haven, CT 06511 USA. AB This study applies the Ricardian technique to estimate the effect of climate change on the smallholder agriculture sector in Sri Lanka. The main contribution of the paper is the use of household-level data to analyze long-term climate impacts on farm profitability. Household-level data allows us to control for a host of factors such as human and physical capital available to farmers as well as adaptation mechanisms at the farm level. We find that non-climate variables explain about half the variation in net revenues. However, our results suggest that climate change will have a significant impact on smallholder profitability. In particular, reductions in precipitation during key agricultural months can be devastating. At the national level, a change in net revenues of between -23% and +22% is likely depending on the climate change scenario simulated. These impacts will vary considerably across geographic areas from losses of 67% to gains that more than double current net revenues. The largest adverse impacts are anticipated in the dry zones of the North Central region and the dry zones of the South Eastern regions of Sri Lanka. On the other hand, the intermediate and wet zones are likely to benefit, mostly due to the predicted increase in rainfall. CR WATSON RT, 1998, REGIONAL IMPACTS CLI, V1, P1 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 *IRI, 2003, IRI NET ASS PRED SRI *RRDI, 2003, AGR ZON SRI LANK RIC *WORLD BANK, 2001, SRI LANK INT SURV SL *WORLD BANK, 2003, GLOB EC PROSP *WORLD BANK, 2003, UNPUB RES PROPOSAL C ADAMS R, 1999, IMPACT CLIMATE CHANG ADAMS RM, 1990, NATURE, V345, P219 ADAMS RM, 1999, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V41, P363 CLINE WR, 1996, AM ECON REV, V86, P1309 COLLIER P, 1999, J ECON LIT, V37, P62 DARWIN RF, 1999, AM ECON REV, V89, P1049 DINAR A, 1998, 402 WORLD BANK EMORI S, 1999, J METEOROL SOC JPN, V77, P1299 GORDON C, 2000, CLIM DYNAM, V16, P147 GORDON HB, 1997, MON WEATHER REV, V125, P875 KURUKULASURIYA P, 2003, CLIMATE CHANGE SERIE, V91 MADDISON D, 2000, EUR REV AGRIC ECON, V27, P519 MENDELSOHN R, 1994, AM ECON REV, V84, P753 MENDELSOHN R, 1999, AM ECON REV, V89, P1049 MENDELSOHN R, 1999, WORLD BANK RES OBSER, V14, P277 MENDELSOHN R, 2001, ENVIRON DEV ECON 1, V6, P85 MENDELSOHN R, 2003, CLIMATE SCENARIOS US MENDELSOHN R, 2003, LAND ECON, V79, P328 MOLUA EL, 2002, ENVIRON DEV ECON 3, V7, P529 QUIGGIN J, 1999, AM ECON REV, V89, P1044 REILLY JM, 1995, AM J AGR ECON, V77, P727 ROSENZWEIG C, 1994, NATURE, V367, P133 WASHINGTON WM, 2000, CLIM DYNAM, V16, P755 WHITE H, 1980, ECONOMETRICA, V48, P817 NR 31 TC 1 J9 CLIMATIC CHANGE BP 39 EP 59 PY 2007 PD MAR VL 81 IS 1 GA 134NY UT ISI:000244091300004 ER PT J AU Makropoulos, CK Butter, D TI Planning site-specific water-demand management strategies SO WATER AND ENVIRONMENT JOURNAL LA English DT Article C1 Univ London Imperial Coll Sci Technol & Med, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, London, England. RP Makropoulos, CK, Univ London Imperial Coll Sci Technol & Med, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, London, England. AB Water-demand management is a pro-active approach to water conservation, which considers water-consumption 'needs' as 'demands' rather than requirements. Taking into account a variety of engineering strategies to reduce urban water consumption, this research discusses the use of a tool for developing a master plan for site-specific implementation. The tool links the characteristics of urban areas (engineering, economic and social) with the applicability of particular water-demand management strategies within a fuzzy logic framework, to provide spatially-sensitive decision support - both at a strategic and an application level. The initial results, under various user-defined scenarios, are presented and discussed. It is argued that decision-support tools are beneficial in assisting the water industry to move towards a more pro-active approach to urban water management, similar to the approach which has already been adopted by the Telecommunication and Energy sector. CR *NAT RIV AUTH, 1995, SAV WAT *OFF WAT SERV, 1998, REP LEAK WAT EFF 199 *OFF WAT SERV, 1999, REP LEAK WAT EFF 199 BUTLER D, 2000, URBAN DRAINAGE COLEMAN T, 1999, OPTIMISATION TOOLBOX FOXTON T, 2000, J CHART INST WATER E, V14, P171 HOEKSTRA AY, 1998, WATER POLICY, V1, P605 KLIR G, 1998, UNCERTAINTY BASED IN LARSEN TA, 1997, WATER SCI TECHNOL, V35, P3 MAKROPOULOS CK, 2003, J WATER RES PL-ASCE, V129, P69 MANDEL J, 2001, UNCERTAIN RULE BASED MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 MENDEL JM, 2000, SIGNAL PROCESS, V80, P913 MOHAMED AS, 2000, PHYS CHEM EARTH PT B, V25, P251 OHAGAN M, 1988, P 22 ANN IEEE AS C S, P681 OPTIZ E, 1998, URBAN WATER DEMAND M ROGERS P, 1985, GLOBAL POSSIBLE RESO RUSSAC DAV, 1991, J INST WATER ENV MAN, V5, P342 SHANNON C, 1962, MATH THEORY COMMUNIC THOMAS DN, 2000, J CHART INST WATER E, V14, P442 WACKERNAGEL M, 1996, OUR ECOLOGICAL FOOTP YAGER RR, 1988, IEEE T SYST MAN CYB, V18, P183 NR 22 TC 0 J9 WATER ENVIRON J BP 29 EP 35 PY 2004 PD MAR VL 18 IS 1 GA 900JN UT ISI:000227211300007 ER PT J AU Lewandrowski, JK Schimmelpfennig, D TI Economic implications of climate change for US agriculture: Assessing recent evidence SO LAND ECONOMICS LA English DT Article C1 Econ Res Serv, Resource Econ Div, USDA, Washington, DC 20005 USA. RP Lewandrowski, JK, Econ Res Serv, Resource Econ Div, USDA, Washington, DC 20005 USA. AB Recent studies estimate potential economic impacts of climate change on U.S. agriculture. While results are not directly comparable, several ''big picture'' lessons can be drawn. These broader findings are developed and put into a policy context. While the estimated impacts on U.S, agriculture, and the U.S. economy, do not yet justify costly adaptation or mitigation strategies, some regional and environmental impacts could be quite severe. Current policy efforts should focus on reducing climate change uncertainties and increasing farm sector flexibility. From a national perspective, Suture agreements to limit greenhouse gas emissions could be partially met through adjustments of farm practices. (JEL Q11). 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CR ACHESON JM, 1975, HUM ECOL, V3, P183 ALLEN R, 1977, ALTERNATIVES GROWTH, V1 BONIECKI GJ, 1977, INT J PSYCHOL, V12, P59 BULLOCK K, 1977, MANAGING COMMONS CASS RC, 1975, THESIS ARIZONA STATE DAWES RM, 1977, J PERS SOC PSYCHOL, V35, P1 DUNLAP RE, 1975, APR ANN M PAC SOC AS FOXX RM, 1977, J APPL BEHAV ANAL, V10, P61 GELLER ES, 1975, J ENVIRON SYST, V5, P39 HARDIN G, 1968, SCIENCE, V162, P1243 HARPER CS, 1977, 8 EDRA C HAYES SC, J APPLIED BEHAVIOR A LIPSEY MW, 1977, J SUPPL ABSTR SERV, V7 LOPREATO SC, 1976, ENERGY ATTITUDINAL S MASLOW AH, 1954, MOTIVATION PERSONALI MCCLELLAND L, 1977, AUG M AM PSYCH ASS S MEDALIA NZ, 1964, J HLTH HUM BEH, V5, P154 OLSEN ME, 1977, SOCIAL ASPECTS ENERG OLSON M, 1965, LOGIC COLLECTIVE ACT ORR LD, 1976, ENVIRONMENT, V18, P33 PLATT J, 1973, AM PSYCHOL, V28, P641 RAPPAPORT RA, 1967, PIGS ANCESTORS RITUA, V1, P1 ROYSTON MG, 1977, 77 ALT GROWTH C WOOD SHERIF M, 1961, INTERGROUP CONFLICT STERN PC, 1976, J PERS SOC PSYCHOL, V34, P1285 WADE N, 1974, SCIENCE, V185, P234 WARREN DI, 1975, LOCAL NEIGHBORHOOD S WEIGEL RH, 1974, J PERS SOC PSYCHOL, V30, P724 WITMER JF, 1976, J APPL BEHAV ANAL, V9, P315 WYNNEEDWARDS VC, 1965, SCIENCE, V147, P1543 NR 30 TC 17 J9 INT J PSYCHOL BP 149 EP 158 PY 1978 VL 13 IS 2 GA FB098 UT ISI:A1978FB09800005 ER PT J AU White, RR TI Managing and interpreting uncertainty for climate change risk SO BUILDING RESEARCH AND INFORMATION LA English DT Article C1 Univ Toronto, Inst Environm Studies, Toronto, ON M5S 3E8, Canada. RP White, RR, Univ Toronto, Inst Environm Studies, Toronto, ON M5S 3E8, Canada. AB Climate change is a significant risk for the built environment because it implies not only warmer weather, but also more extreme weather events, such as storms, droughts and heat waves. Considerable uncertainty about the future also exists, partly because of the response of society's apparent reluctance to mitigate climate change by reducing fossil fuel consumption. An adaptive response to the challenge draws on the literature on climate change, the urban environment, natural hazards and risk analysis. Two concepts - life cycle costs and the avoidance of ruin - provide a useful framework for factoring the uncertainty associated with climate change into a risk analysis for the built environment. Monitoring, prediction, data management and communication are the unglamorous underpinnings of a successful urban risk-management strategy. For cities to develop a significantly improved response capacity, the active support of senior levels of government is essential because cities have neither the legal powers nor the resources to tackle climate change on their own. Ultimately, the biggest challenges are institutional and behavioural. 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SO EPIDEMIOLOGY LA English DT Editorial Material C1 Harvard Univ, Sch Med, Ctr Hlth & Global Environm, Boston, MA 02115 USA. RP Epstein, PR, Harvard Univ, Sch Med, Ctr Hlth & Global Environm, 333 Longwood Ave,Suite 640, Boston, MA 02115 USA. CR *EPA, 2001, EPA WORKSH CLIM CHAN *NAT RES COUNC NAT, 2001, ABR CLIM CHANG IN SU *WHO, 1996, WORLD HLTH REP 1996 ALBRITTON DL, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 BOUMA MJ, 1997, TROP MED INT HEALTH, V2, P1122 BRADSHAW WE, 2001, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V98, P14509 BRAGA ALF, 2001, EPIDEMIOLOGY, V12, P662 BROECKER WS, 1997, SCIENCE, V278, P1582 CIFUENTES L, 2001, SCIENCE, V293, P1257 DAVIS D, 2001, LANCET, V358, P1737 EASTERLING DR, 1997, SCIENCE, V277, P363 ELIAS SA, 1994, QUATERNARY INSECTS T EPSTEIN PR, 1998, B AM METEOROL SOC, V79, P409 EPSTEIN PR, 1999, SCIENCE, V285, P347 HAINES A, 2000, CAN MED ASSOC J, V163, P729 HOUGHTON JT, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 KARL TR, 1995, NATURE, V377, P217 KOVATS RS, 1999, WHOSDEPHE994 WHO KRABILL W, 1999, SCIENCE, V283, P1522 KRIEBEL D, 2001, ENVIRON HEALTH PERSP, V109, P871 LEVITUS S, 2000, SCIENCE, V287, P2225 LINDGREN E, 2001, LANCET, V358, P16 LINTHICUM KJ, 1999, SCIENCE, V285, P397 MARTENS WJM, 1997, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V35, P145 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 MCMICHAEL AJ, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE HUMAN MCMICHAEL AJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 PARK JM, 1999, PEDIATRICS 3, V104, P827 PATZ JA, 1996, JAMA-J AM MED ASSOC, V275, P217 PETIT JR, 1999, NATURE, V399, P429 ROTHMAN KJ, 1976, AM J EPIDEMIOL, V104, P587 ROTHROCK DA, 1999, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V26, P3469 SEMILETOV IP, 2000, FRESHWATER BUDGET AR, P323 TRENBERTH KE, 1997, CONSEQUENCES, V5, P3 WALTHER GR, 2002, NATURE, V416, P389 WAYNE P, 2002, ANN ALLERG ASTHMA IM, V88, P279 WOODRUFF RE, 2002, EPIDEMIOLOGY, V13, P384 NR 37 TC 3 J9 EPIDEMIOLOGY BP 373 EP 375 PY 2002 PD JUL VL 13 IS 4 GA 565PL UT ISI:000176378600001 ER PT J AU Malville, NJ TI Bearing the burden: Portage labor as an adaptive response to predictable food deficits in eastern Nepal SO HUMAN ECOLOGY LA English DT Article C1 Univ Colorado, Dept Anthropol, Boulder, CO 80309 USA. RP Malville, NJ, Univ Colorado, Dept Anthropol, CB233, Boulder, CO 80309 USA. AB Wage work such as portage labor is one of several adaptive strategies by which rural households in Nepal supplement their subsistence agriculture. This study, conducted in the hills of eastern Nepal in 1997, surveyed the land-holdings and household subsistence base of 50 commercial porters hired to transport loads from Jiri to various destinations in Solu Khumbu. A major goal was to test the hypothesis that porter households tend to have smaller landholdings than the average household in this region. An unexpected result was that porter households in this study owned nearly as much arable land (1.07 ha) as the mean of 1.15 ha for all hill families in eastern Nepal. Household grain sufficiency correlated significantly (P < 0.01) with farm size (r = 0.53). The majority of the porters lived in villages located at either the origin or the endpoint of their portage work. The study also examined several variables that might explain why portage labor is a full-time occupation for some Nepalis, but a part-time "casual" occupation for others. The most significant difference between households of full-time and part-time porters was the availability of workers at home for managing the household's land and livestock resources. Households of full-time porters were better able to spare a family member for full-time wage labor because they had significantly more adult workers of either gender (P < 0.05) than households of part-time porters. Full-time and part-time porter households did not differ significantly with regard to family size, land ownership, or number of food-deficit months. CR *UNICEF, 1992, CHILDR WOM NEP SIT A *WHO, 1995, WHO TECHN REP SER, V854 ACHARYA M, 1980, STATUS WOMEN NEPAL 1, V1 ACHARYA M, 1983, WORLD BANK STAFF WOR, V526 ASTRAND PO, 1977, TXB WORK PHYSL AYERS B, 2004, AM ALPINE NEWS, V11, P10 BASNET B, 1995, HIM HARD LIV C HIM P BENNETT L, 1983, DANGEROUS WIVES SACR BISTA DB, 1971, PEOPLE NEPAL BRINK EW, 1976, B WORLD HEALTH ORGAN, V54, P311 BROWN ML, 1968, AM J CLIN NUTR, V21, P875 CAMPBELL B, 1995, HIM HARD LIV C HIM P COBURN B, 1994, HIMAL, V7, P3 DEVKOTA U, 1995, HIM HARD LIV C HIM P DIXIT KM, 1995, HIMAL, V8, P32 DIXIT KM, 1997, HIMAL, V10, P10 DOUGLAS JE, 1983, NATL SEED PROGRAMME FISHER JF, 1990, SHERPAS REFLECTIONS FRISANCHO AR, 1990, ANTHROPOMETRIC STAND GAUTAM M, 1984, UNPUB DIET ENERGY RE GURUNG H, 1981, 2 NEW ERA HAGEN T, 1998, NEPAL KINGDOM HIMALA HUIJBERS PMJ, 1996, AM J PHYS ANTHROPOL, V10, P137 KOPPERT GJA, 1988, THESIS AIX MARSEILLE MAJPURIA I, 1984, JOYS NEPALESE COOKIN MALVILLE NJ, 1999, AM J HUM BIOL, V11, P1 MALVILLE NJ, 2001, AM J HUM BIOL, V13, P44 MALVILLE NJ, 2001, J ANTHROPOL ARCHAEOL, V20, P230 MARTORELL R, 1984, AM J CLIN NUTR, V39, P74 MILLER R, 1997, HIMALAYAN RES B, V18, P17 NABARRO D, 1984, FOOD NUTR B, V6, P18 NORGAY T, 1955, TIGER SNOWS AUTOBIOG ORTNER S, 1989, HIGH RELIG CULTURAL ORTNER S, 1999, LIFE DEATH MT EVERES PANTERBRICK C, 1989, HUM ECOL, V17, P205 PANTERBRICK C, 1992, AM J HUM BIOL, V4, P481 PANTERBRICK C, 1996, AM J HUM BIOL, V8, P263 PANTERBRICK C, 1996, AM J PHYS ANTHROPOL, V100, P7 PANTERBRICK C, 1997, ANN HUM BIOL, V24, P1 PANTERBRICK C, 1997, HUM ORGAN, V56, P190 POFFENBERGER M, 1980, PATTERNS CHANGE NEPA POLLOCK ML, 1977, ANN NY ACAD SCI, V301, P310 RIEDINGER J, 1993, S ASIA B, V13, P23 SAUBERLICH HE, 1999, LAB TESTS ASSESSMENT SCOTT D, 1994, HIMAL, V6, P49 SHARMA P, 1995, HIM HARD LIV C HIM P SHEPHARD RJ, 1978, HUMAN PHYSL WORK CAP SHRESTHA NR, 1990, LANDLESSNESS MIGRATI SHRESTHA TB, 1995, HIM HARD LIV C HIM P SILCOCK P, 1989, HIMALAYAN J, V45, P168 STRICKLAND SS, 1997, FORM FUNCTION STUDY VONFURERHAIMEND.C, 1984, SHERPAS TRANSFORMED NR 52 TC 0 J9 HUM ECOL BP 419 EP 438 PY 2005 PD JUN VL 33 IS 3 GA 937EQ UT ISI:000229907800005 ER PT J AU Agrawala, S TI Adaptation, development assistance and planning: Challenges and opportunities SO IDS BULLETIN-INSTITUTE OF DEVELOPMENT STUDIES LA English DT Article C1 Harvard Univ, Cambridge, MA 02138 USA. RP Agrawala, S, Harvard Univ, Cambridge, MA 02138 USA. AB This article highlights emerging insights from recent Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) work in six developing countries: Bangladesh, Egypt, Fiji, Nepal, Tanzania and Uruguay, on the synergies and trade-offs involved in mainstreaming adaptation to climate change in development assistance, projects, and plans. Over the medium to long term, there is greater potential to adapt to climate change impacts as part of core development activity, compared with the financing of action on adaptation initiated from within the climate regime. Furthermore, OECD work highlights that development activities might need to adapt to medium/long-term trends in climate, and not just current weather extremes and climate variability. Policy coherence between climate and development however remains a major concern. There is a need to downscale the discourse on adaptation from a multilateral negotiations context, to a more substantive dialogue between sectoral planners, relevant stakeholders and climate experts on how best to operationalise adaptation as part of ongoing development activity. CR MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 *OECD, 2003, COMENVEPOCDCDDAC2003 *OECD, 2003, COMENVEPOXDCDDAC2003 *OECD, 2003, DEV CLIM CHANG NEP F *OECD, 2004, DEV CLIM CHANG EQYPT *OECD, 2004, DEV CLIM CHANG UR FO *WORLD BANK, 2000, BANG CLIM CHANG SUST *WORLD BANK, 2000, CIT SEAS STORM MANAG AGRAWALA S, 2002, COLUMBIA J ENV LAW, V27, P309 AGRAWALS S, 2002, DEV CLIMATE CHANGE P BURTON I, 1999, CLIMATE CHANGE SERIE DESSAI S, 2003, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V13, P149 ERIKSEN S, 2003, PRO POOR CLIMATE ADA KATES RW, 1997, ENVIRONMENT, V39, P29 KLEIN RJT, 2001, ADAPTATION CLIMATE C SPERLING F, 2003, POVERTY CLIMATE CHAN NR 16 TC 0 J9 IDS BULL-INST DEVELOP STUD BP 50 EP + PY 2004 PD JUL VL 35 IS 3 GA 844HK UT ISI:000223148700008 ER PT J AU HIGHAM, C BANNANURAG, R MASON, G TAYLES, N TI HUMAN BIOLOGY, ENVIRONMENT AND RITUAL AT KHOK-PHANOM-DI SO WORLD ARCHAEOLOGY LA English DT Article C1 THAI FINE ARTS DEPT,BANGKOK,THAILAND. RP HIGHAM, C, UNIV OTAGO,ANTHROPOL,DUNEDIN,NEW ZEALAND. AB Khok Phanom Di is located in Central Thailand, and was occupied between 2000 and 1500 BC. A cemetery spanning 17-20 generations was encountered, in which members of the same family were interred alongside and over each other within collective burial areas. At first settlement, the site commanded a major estuary, one of the world's richest habitats in terms of self-replenishing food. The diet comprised marine species and rice. Access was possible to local sources of shell for the manufacture of jewellery, and the site was also a pottery-making centre. The biological remains suggest that a major environmental change, involving the relocation of the river and coastal progradation, occurred after the passage of about ten generations. This was accompanied by changes in the human diet and health. Males had less-developed upper body strength which could reflect a sharp reduction in canoeing. Hardly any shell beads were found in the graves representing the four generations which followed this change. It is suggested that local sources of shell for bead manufacture were no longer available and men ceased coastal canoe voyaging. With the fifth generation, there was a dramatic increase in some very rich graves, which incorporated an entirely new range of shell jewellery made from probably exotic species. At the same time, women predominated numerically and in terms of wealth. Some infants interred alongside these women were also very wealthy. It is suggested that the women were pottery makers and were able to engage in long-distance exchange as a means to attaining high individual status. A trend towards matrilocality saw young females becoming central in maintaining the social group. Those who died in infancy were given particularly impressive burial rites. Yet status was personally achieved rather than ascriptive. CR CHOOSIRI P, 1988, THESIS U OTAGO GRANT A, 1991, EXCAVATION KHOK PHAN, P147 HARRIS A, 1991, EXCAVATION KHOK PHAN, P238 HIGHAM CFW, 1990, EXCAVATION KHOK PHAN, V1 HIGHAM CFW, 1991, EXCAVATION KHOK PHAN, V2 HIGHAM CFW, 1992, UNPUB J FIELD ARCHAE HIGHAM TFG, 1988, THESIS U OTAGO KIJNGAM A, 1991, EXCAVATION KHON PHAN, P223 MALONEY BK, 1991, EXCAVATION KHOK PHAN, P7 MASON GM, 1991, EXCAVATION KHON PHAN, P139 MASON GM, 1991, EXCAVATION KHON PHAN, P249 ODUM EP, 1971, FUNDAMENTALS ECOLOGY PILDITCH JS, IN PRESS EXCAVATION RUSSELLHUNTER WD, 1970, AQUATIC PRODUCTIVITY TAYLES N, 1992, THESIS U OTAGO THOMPSON J, 1991, THESIS AUSTR NATIONA WEATHERALL DJ, 1987, ANN TROP MED PARASIT, V81, P539 WEST BA, 1991, EXCAVATION KHOK PHAN, P193 NR 18 TC 1 J9 WORLD ARCHAEOL BP 35 EP 54 PY 1992 PD JUN VL 24 IS 1 GA HZ851 UT ISI:A1992HZ85100003 ER PT J AU Patt, A TI Assessing model-based and conflict-based uncertainty SO GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS LA English DT Article C1 Int Inst Appl Syst Anal, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria. RP Patt, A, Int Inst Appl Syst Anal, Schlosspl 1, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria. AB Assessment panels need to communicate scientific uncertainty, and often face choices about how to simplify or synthesize it. One important distinction is between uncertainty that has been modeled, and that which derives from disagreement among experts. From an economic decision-making perspective the two are in many ways logically equivalent, yet from psychological and social perspectives they are quite different. An experiment on the communication of climate change uncertainty suggests that the two framings of uncertainty differentially influence people's estimates of likelihood and their motivation to take responsive action. It is recommended that assessment panels pay close attention to the social features of uncertainty, such as conflict between experts. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *NAT RES COUNC, 2006, COMPL FOR CHAR COMM ALLAIS M, 1979, THEORY DECISION LIB ANDREAE MO, 2005, NATURE, V435, P1187 ANDRONOVA NG, 2001, J GEOPHYS RES-ATMOS, V106, P22605 ARNELL NW, 2005, RISK ANAL, V25, P1419 ARROW KJ, 1964, REV ECON STUD, V31, P91 BIRNBAUM MH, 1976, MEM COGNITION, V4, P330 BIRNBAUM MH, 1979, J PERS SOC PSYCHOL, V37, P48 BIRNBAUM MH, 1983, J PERS SOC PSYCHOL, V45, P792 BOYKOFF MT, 2004, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V14, P125 CAIN M, 2003, B ECON RES, V55, P263 CAMERER C, 2001, CHOICES VALUES FRAME, P288 CLEMEN RT, 1999, RISK ANAL, V19, P187 COVELLO V, 1990, COMMUNICATING RISKS, P79 COX PM, 2000, NATURE, V408, P184 DARR ED, 2000, ORGAN BEHAV HUM DEC, V82, P28 DEBRUIN WB, 2000, ORGAN BEHAV HUM DEC, V81, P115 DOUGLAS M, 1982, RISK CULTURE DRYZEK J, 1997, POLITICS EARTH ENV D EDGELL SE, 2004, J BEHAV DECIS MAKING, V17, P213 EZRAHI Y, 1990, DESCENT ICARUS SCI T FEHR E, 1999, Q J ECON, V114, P817 FISCHHOFF B, 1995, RISK ANAL, V15, P137 FISHBURN PC, 1981, THEOR DECIS, V13, P139 FUNTOWICZ SO, 1990, UNCERTAINTY QUALITY FUNTOWICZ SO, 1993, FUTURES, V25, P739 GELBSPAN R, 1997, HEAT IS HIGH STAKES GIGERENZER G, 2000, ADAPTIVE THINKING RA GIGERENZER G, 2001, BOUNDED RATIONALITY GRIFFIN D, 1992, COGNITIVE PSYCHOL, V24, P411 HARVEY N, 1997, ORGAN BEHAV HUM DEC, V70, P117 HOUGHTON JT, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 JANSSEN PHM, 2004, 4 INT C SENS AN MOD JASANOFF S, 2002, HDB SCI TECHNOLOGY S JONES RN, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P403 KAHNEMAN D, 1979, ECONOMETRICA, V47, P263 KAHNEMAN D, 1986, J BUS, V59, P285 KASPERSON RE, 1996, ANN AM ACAD POLIT SS, V545, P95 KNETSCH JL, 1997, ENV ETHICS BEHAV, P13 KROSNICK JA, 2006, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V77, P7 KUHBERGER A, 1998, ORGAN BEHAV HUM DEC, V75, P23 LAKOFF G, 2004, DONT THINK ELEPHANT LEE K, 1993, COMPASS GYROSCOPE IN LEISS W, 1996, ANN AM ACAD POLIT SS, V545, P85 LEMPERT RJ, 2002, P NATL ACAD SCI U S3, V99, P7309 LINSTONE HA, 1999, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V62, P79 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 METZ B, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 MICHAEL M, 1996, MISUNDERSTANDING SCI, P107 MORGAN MG, 1990, UNCERTAINTY GUIDE DE MORGAN MG, 1995, ENVIRON SCI TECHNOL, V29, P468 MOSS R, 2000, IPCC SUPPORTING MAT, P33 MUNRO A, 2003, J ECON BEHAV ORGAN, V50, P407 PATT A, 2000, J RISK UNCERTAINTY, V21, P45 PATT AG, 2006, J BEHAV DECIS MAKING, V19, P347 PAYNE JW, 1993, ADAPTIVE DECISION MA PENNER JE, 2004, NATURE, V432, P962 PETTY RE, 1986, ADV EXPT SOCIAL PSYC, V19, P123 PRENTICEDUNN S, 1986, HLTH ED RES, V1, P153 RISBEY JS, 2000, CLIMATE RES, V16, P61 RITOV I, 1992, J RISK UNCERTAINTY, V5, P49 SAMUELSON W, 1988, J RISK UNCERTAINTY, V1, P7 SIMON HA, 1956, PSYCHOL REV, V63, P129 SNIEZEK JA, 2004, J BEHAV DECIS MAKING, V17, P173 STAINFORTH DA, 2005, NATURE, V433, P403 THOMPSON M, 1990, CULTURAL THEORY TVERSKY A, 1973, COGNITIVE PSYCHOL, V5, P207 TVERSKY A, 1974, SCIENCE, V185, P1124 VANDERSLUIJS JP, 2005, RISK ANAL, V25, P481 VONNEUMANN J, 1944, THEORY GAMES EC BEHA WALDROP MM, 1992, COMPLEXITY EMERGENCE WEBER E, 1997, ENV ETHICS BEHAV, P314 WEBER EU, 2000, RISK DECISION POLICY, V5, P69 WEBER EU, 2006, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V77, P103 WEBSTER M, 2003, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V61, P1 WEBSTER M, 2003, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V61, P295 WINDSCHITL PD, 1999, J EXP PSYCHOL LEARN, V25, P1514 WYNNE B, 1996, MISUNDERSTANDING SCI, P19 ZECKHAUSER RJ, 1996, ANN AM ACAD POLIT SS, V545, P144 NR 79 TC 1 J9 GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANGE BP 37 EP 46 PY 2007 PD FEB VL 17 IS 1 GA 149YG UT ISI:000245182200006 ER PT J AU Duerden, F TI Translating climate change impacts at the community level SO ARCTIC LA English DT Article C1 Ryerson Univ, Dept Geog, Toronto, ON M5B 2K3, Canada. RP Duerden, F, Ryerson Univ, Dept Geog, 350 Victoria St, Toronto, ON M5B 2K3, Canada. AB It is well recognized that climate change will have considerable impact on the physical landscapes of northern Canada. How these impacts will be transmitted to the level of human activity is not clear, but it needs to be understood by governments and other decision makers to help them identify and implement appropriate approaches to ameliorate the effects of climate change. Translating physical changes into human impacts is not a simple task; communities are not passive players that will respond to changes in the physical environment in easily predictable ways. While many prognoses about change are made on a large scale, human activity is highly localized, and impacts and responses will be conditioned by local geography and a range of endogenous factors, including demographic trends, economic complexity, and experience with "change" in a broad sense. More and more studies are yielding important information about community-level experience, both past and current, with environmental shifts in the North, but research effort by social scientists falls short of what is required to reduce the level of uncertainty, and it compares unfavourably with the physical sciences' dedication to the climate change problem. A pan-northern research effort, building on a long legacy of social science research in the North, would go some way towards translating the promise of change into probable community impacts. CR *GOV NW TERR, 2003, COMP OP CHANG TIM PE *GOV YUK, 2002, YUK MIGR PATT 1991 2 *IASC, 1999, IMP GLOB CLIM CHANG *IASC, 2001, CLIM CHANG 2001 SCI *NO CLIM EXCH, 2000, NO ASS IMP CLIM CHAN *NO CLIM EXCH, 2001, GAP AN PROJ ADGER WN, 1999, MITIG ADAPT STRAT GL, V4, P253 AHARONIAN D, 1994, MACKENZIE BASIN IMPA, P410 ATSON RT, 1997, IPCC SPECIAL REPORT BERKES F, 1998, LINKING SOCIAL ECOLO, V1, P1 BERKES F, 2002, EARTH FASTER INDIGEN, P335 COHEN SJ, 1997, MACKENZIE BASIN IMPA COMISO JC, 2003, J CLIMATE, V16, P3498 CRUIKSHANK J, 2001, ARCTIC, V54, P377 CUTTER SL, 1996, PROG HUM GEOG, V20, P529 DUERDEN F, 1998, POLAR REC, V34, P31 DUERDEN F, 2001, NO REV, V24, P150 FAST H, 1998, SECURING NO FUTURES, P9 FOX S, 2000, ARCTIC CLIMATOLOGY P FOX S, 2002, EARTH FASTER NOW IND, P12 HANDMER J, 1999, MITIGATION ADAPTATIO, V4, P267 HUANG GH, 1998, RESOUR CONSERV RECY, V24, P95 HUGHEN K, 1998, WITNESS ARCTIC, V6, P1 HUNTINGTON HP, 2000, WITNESS ARCTIC, V8, P1 JOLLY D, 2002, EARTH FASTER INDIGEN, P92 KELLY PM, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V47, P325 KENDRICK A, 2000, CANADIAN J NATIVE ST, V20, P1 KOFINAS GP, 2002, EARTH FASTER INDIGEN, P54 KRUPNIK I, 2002, EARTH FASTER NOW IND KRUPNIK I, 2002, EARTH IS FASTER NOW, P156 LEWIS JE, 1995, TOPICS ARCTIC SOCIAL, V2, P1 LONERGAN S, 1993, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V24, P331 MAXWELL B, 1997, CANADA COUNTRY STUDY, V2 MCDONALD M, 1997, VOICES BAY TRADITION MCGILLIVARY DG, 1993, 9301 ATM ENV SERV MILLS P, 1994, ARCTIC, V47, P115 NOONGWOOK G, 2000, IMPACTS CHANGES SEA, P21 NUTTALL M, 2001, INDIGENOUS AFFAIRS, V4, P26 QUIGLEY NC, 1987, ARCTIC, V40, P204 RIEDLINGER D, 2001, POLAR REC, V37, P315 ROTHMAN D, 1997, MACKENZIE BASIN IMPA, P233 SMIT B, 2002, ENHANCING CAPACITY D, P1 SNOW N, 2001, CLIM CHANG CIRC N SU TAYLOR E, 1997, CANADA COUNTRY STUDY, V6 THORPE N, 2002, EARTH FASTER INDIGEN, P198 USHER PJ, 2002, ARCTIC S1, V55, P18 WEIN EE, 1995, NO REV, V14, P86 WILLIAMSON T, 1997, SINA SIKUJALUK OUR F NR 48 TC 0 J9 ARCTIC BP 204 EP 212 PY 2004 PD JUN VL 57 IS 2 GA 834PY UT ISI:000222424200009 ER PT J AU Kumar, PKD TI Potential vulnerability implications of sea level rise for the coastal zones of Cochin, southwest coast of India SO ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING AND ASSESSMENT LA English DT Article C1 Natl Inst Oceanog, Reg Ctr, Cochin 682018, Kerala, India. RP Kumar, PKD, Natl Inst Oceanog, Reg Ctr, Cochin 682018, Kerala, India. AB This study presents the results of the impact assessment analysis of the coastal zones of Cochin along the southwest coast of India. The climatological cycle of sea level derived for the region for the period 1939-2003 has shown a range of about 17 cm. From the results obtained on the coastal sedimentary environments, it is found that climate-induced sea level rise scenarios will bring profound effects. It is also revealed that the mean beach slope and relief play a vital role in land loss of the region. The local relief of coastal zone will decrease as sea level rises, thus increasing the percentage of land above mean sea level subjected to episodic inundations. Results of the yearly probability of damages indicated the urgency to upgrade the existing designs of coastal protection structures. A brief characterisation of the issues on infrastructure and uncertainties in policy planning also are attempted. CR 1984, SHORE PROTECTION MAN, V1 *NRC, 1987, RESP CHANG SEA LEV BALACHANDRAN KK, 2005, ESTUAR COAST SHELF S, V65, P361 BANSE K, 1968, DEEP-SEA RES, V15, P45 BIJLSMA L, 1996, IMPACTS ADAPTATION M BIRD ECF, 1988, GREENHOUSE PLANNING, P60 BRUUN P, 1962, J WATERWAYS HARBORS, V88, P117 CHURCH JA, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, P639 CUBASCH U, 2001, PROJECTIONS FUTURE C, P525 DAS PK, 1991, P INDIAN AS-EARTH, V100, P177 DAS PK, 1993, P INDIAN AS-EARTH, V102, P175 DEAN RG, 1983, HDB COASTAL PROCESSE, P151 EMERY KO, 1989, J COASTAL RES, V5, P489 GOMMES R, 1997, POTENTIAL IMPACTS SE HANDS EB, 1976, 761 US COAST ENG RES HOUGHTON JT, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995 KONT A, 2003, GLOBAL PLANET CHANGE, V36, P1 KUMAR PKD, 1994, IND J ENV PROTN, V14, P98 KUMAR PKD, 1995, P INT C COAST PORT E, P1865 KUMAR PKD, 1996, AMBIO, V4, P249 KUMAR PKD, 2000, THESIS MANGALORE U I LIU SK, 1997, OCEAN COAST MANAGE, V37, P85 LONGHURST AR, 1990, CAN J FISH AQUAT SCI, V47, P2407 MORTON RA, 1991, COASTAL SEDIMENTS 91, P997 NICHOLLS RJ, 1998, CLIMATE RES, V11, P5 NICHOLLS RJ, 1999, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V9, P69 PILKEY OH, 1987, SEA LEVEL FLUCTUATIO, P59 PUGH DT, 1987, TIDES SURGES MEAN SE SHARMA GS, 1978, INDIAN J MAR SCI, V7, P209 SMALL C, 2000, ENV GEOSCIENCES, V7, P3 SPIEGEL MR, 1981, THEORY PROBLEMS STAT SRINIVAS K, 2002, INDIAN J MAR SCI, V31, P271 THERON AK, 1994, J S AFR I CIV ENG, V36, P6 TITUS JG, 1989, EPA J, V1, P14 TITUS JG, 1991, COAST MANAGE, V19, P171 WARRICK RA, 1994, CLIMATE SEA LEVEL CH, P3 WATSON RT, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, V1, P1 WEAVER AJ, 1998, OCEAN COAST MANAGE, V39, P73 WIND HG, 1994, CLIMATE SEA LEVEL CH, P297 NR 39 TC 0 J9 ENVIRON MONIT ASSESS BP 333 EP 344 PY 2006 PD DEC VL 123 IS 1-3 GA 110EK UT ISI:000242360900021 ER PT J AU Elmendorf, CS TI Securing ecological investments an other people's land: A transaction costs perspective SO NATURAL RESOURCES JOURNAL LA English DT Article C1 Univ Calif Davis, Sch Law, Davis, CA 95616 USA. RP Elmendorf, CS, Univ Calif Davis, Sch Law, Davis, CA 95616 USA. AB This exploratory article on contracting for habitat restoration considers landowner and land-trust strategies under the following conditions: (1) restoration entails initial specific investments by the land trust and adaptation over time, (2) landowners are uncertain about land-trust "type" (specifically, whether the land trust's hidden agenda is to oust the landowner), (3) land trusts are uncertain about landowner type (specifically, the landowner's private cost of complying with the contract), and (4) habitat restoration is characterized by increasing returns to scale (contiguous acreage). Several contracting strategies are compared. Two appear promising: "liability-rule conservation easements," which would establish contracting frameworks with third-party determination of price; and "collective contracting" via supermajoritarian special districts authorized by law to bind the member landowners. It is suggested that contracts with special districts may prove valuable not only for overcoming holdouts, but also as a way of reducing the land trust's vulnerability to opportunism that is premised on asymmetric information about landowner type. CR CALABRESI G, 1972, HARVARD LAW REV, V85, P1089 CAUGHLEY G, 1996, CONSERVATION BIOL TH, P309 COOTER RD, 2000, STRATEGIC CONSTITUTI, P120 EATWELL J, 1987, NEW PALGRAVE DICT EC, V1, P158 EATWELL J, 1987, NEW PALGRAVE DICT EC, V1, P190 ELMENDORF CS, 2003, CULTURAL PSYCHOL PER, P423 GOLDBERG VP, 1976, BELL J ECON, V7, P426 JENSEN MC, 1976, J FINANC ECON, V3, P305 JENSEN MC, 1976, J FINANC ECON, V3, P325 KARKKAINEN BC, 2003, MINN LAW REV, V97, P943 KLEIN B, 1978, J LAW ECON, V21, P297 KLEIN B, 1981, J POLITICAL EC, V89, P615 KNOEBER CR, 1983, J LEGAL STUD, V12, P333 KNOEBER CR, 1983, J LEGAL STUD, V12, P337 KREPS DM, 1990, PERSPECTIVES POSITIV, P90 LEVIN SA, 1999, CONSERVATION EC 0806, V3 LIBECAP GD, 1989, CONTRACTING PROPERTY LIND B, 1991, CONSERVATION EASEMEN, P80 LIND B, 2002, LAND TRUST ALLIANCE, P5 MAESTAS JD, 2001, GEOGR REV, V91, P509 MAHONEY JD, 2004, NAT RESOUR J, V44, P573 MILGROM P, 1990, EC POLITICS, V2, P1 NEEMAN Z, 1999, J L EC ORG, V15, P687 NEEMAN Z, 1999, J LAW ECON ORGAN, V15, P685 OMRI BS, 2000, YALE LAW J, V109, P1885 PARKER DP, 2004, NAT RESOUR J, V44, P483 THOMPSON BH, 1997, STANFORD LAW REV, V49, P305 THOMPSON MK, 2001, DENVER U LAW REV, V78, P373 WILLIAMSON OE, 1983, AM ECON REV, V73, P519 WILLIAMSON OE, 1996, MECH GOVERNANCE, P93 WONDOLLECK JM, 2000, MAKING COLLABORATION ZELLER M, 1999, INVESTIGATION STATE, P7 NR 32 TC 3 J9 NATUR RESOUR J BP 529 EP 561 PY 2004 PD SPR VL 44 IS 2 GA 862TP UT ISI:000224514300010 ER PT J AU Overpeck, JT Cole, JE TI Abrupt change in Earth's climate system SO ANNUAL REVIEW OF ENVIRONMENT AND RESOURCES LA English DT Review C1 Univ Arizona, Dept Atmospher Sci, Inst Study Planet Earth, Dept Geosci, Tucson, AZ 85721 USA. RP Overpeck, JT, Univ Arizona, Dept Atmospher Sci, Inst Study Planet Earth, Dept Geosci, Tucson, AZ 85721 USA. AB Many aspects of Earth's climate system have changed abruptly in the past and are likely to change abruptly in the future. Although abrupt shifts in temperature are most dramatic in glacial climates, abrupt changes, resulting in an altered probability of drought, large floods, tropical storm landfall, and monsoon rainfall, are all important concerns even in the absence of significant anthropogenic climate forcing. Continued climate change will likely increase the probability of these types of abrupt change and also make abrupt changes in ocean circulation and sea level more likely. Although global warming may have already triggered abrupt change, current understanding and modeling capability is not sufficient to specify details of future abrupt climate change. Improved adaptation strategies are warranted, as well as efforts to avoid crossing climate change thresholds beyond which large abrupt changes in sea level, ocean circulation, and methane-clathrate release could greatly amplify the impacts of climate change. 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V435, P662 THOMPSON RS, 1993, GLOBAL CLIMATES LAST, P468 TRENBERTH KE, 1994, CLIM DYNAM, V9, P303 TRENBERTH KE, 1998, J GEOPHYS RES-OCEANS, V103, P14291 TRENBERTH KE, 2003, B AM METEOROL SOC, V84, P1205 TRENBERTH KE, 2004, EOS T AGU, V85, P27 TRIPATI A, 2005, SCIENCE, V308, P1894 TUDHOPE AW, 2001, SCIENCE, V291, P1511 TURNEY CSM, 2004, NATURE, V428, P306 URBAN FE, 2000, NATURE, V407, P989 VERSCHUREN D, 2000, NATURE, V403, P410 WAGNER JD, 2005, EARLY MIDHOLOCENE CL WAGNER JD, 2005, EOS, P1499 WANG YJ, 2001, SCIENCE, V294, P2345 WEBSTER PJ, 2005, SCIENCE, V309, P1844 WOODHOUSE CA, 1998, B AM METEOROL SOC, V79, P2693 WU LG, 2005, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V32 ZACHOS JC, 2003, SCIENCE, V302, P1551 ZACHOS JC, 2005, SCIENCE, V308, P1611 ZIELINSKI GA, 2000, QUATERNARY SCI REV, V19, P417 NR 191 TC 1 J9 ANNU REV ENVIRON RESOUR BP 1 EP 31 PY 2006 VL 31 GA 109QZ UT ISI:000242324900002 ER PT J AU Black, AE Morgan, P Hessburg, PE TI Social and biophysical correlates of change in forest landscapes of the interior Columbia Basin, USA SO ECOLOGICAL APPLICATIONS LA English DT Article C1 Univ Idaho, Coll Nat Resources, Dept Forest Resources, Moscow, ID 83844 USA. US Forest Serv, Forestry Sci Lab, USDA, Pacific NW Res Stn, Wenatchee, WA 98801 USA. RP Black, AE, US Forest Serv, Aldo Leopold Wilderness Res Inst, USDA, RMRS, 790 E Beckwith Ave, Missoula, MT 59801 USA. AB Understanding multi-scale interactions among human activities and biophysical factors in ecosystem dynamics is a critical step toward managing for long-term ecological integrity. Studying variation and change over multiple spatial and temporal scales (100-100 000 ha and 1-500 yr) allows one to tease apart the relative roles of these factors. Using meso-scale data predominantly from the recent Interior Columbia River Basin Ecosystem Management Project (ICBEMP), we assessed the role of several economic, demographic, cultural, climatic, topographic, and geologic factors in forest spatial pattern changes (from the 1930s to the 1990s) across 800 000 km(2) of the interior Northwest, USA. Our 228 forested subwatersheds (similar to10 000 ha) lie in 76 counties in six states. We identified key correlates of change; their hierarchical scale, and the scale of vegetation classification at which these correlates explained most change. We used general linear models and partial. multiple regression analysis, supplemented by logistic and correlation analysis. Models explained 40-93% of total variation. Changes were not necessarily correlated to factors of the same scale. Broad-scale social systems encompassing land ownership systems, economic market structures, and cultural value systems appear in all significant models regardless of the response scale. Biophysical parameters describing growing site conditions moderated or exacerbated changes. CR *ESRI, 1994, ARCI 7 0 *SAS, 1989, SAS STAT US GUID VER, V1 AAVIKSOO K, 1993, LANDSCAPE ECOL, V8, P287 ALIG RJ, 1986, FOREST SCI, V32, P119 ALLEN TFH, 1980, HIERARCHY PERSPECTIV ALLEN TFH, 1992, UNIFIED ECOLOGY ASPINELL RJ, 1993, APPL GEOGR, V13, P54 BAILEY RG, 1995, USDA FOREST SERVICE, V1391 BAKER WL, 1995, LANDSCAPE ECOL, V10, P143 BARRETT GW, 1991, LANDSCAPE LINKAGES B, P149 BENKMAN CW, 1993, CONSERV BIOL, V7, P473 BENNETT JW, 1976, ECOLOGICAL TRANSITIO BLACK AE, 1998, FOREST PATTERNING IN BOYLE TJB, 1991, FOREST CHRON, V8, P444 BURGESS RL, 1988, CAN J BOT, V66, P2687 CLAWSON M, 1971, SUBURBAN LAND CONVER COSTANZA R, 1985, ECOL MODEL, V27, P45 DALE VH, 1993, PHOTOGRAMM ENG REM S, V59, P997 EYRE FH, 1980, FOREST COVER TYPES U FIELD DR, 1988, RURAL SOCIOLOGY ENV FLAMM RO, 1994, LANDSCAPE ECOL, V9, P37 FORMAN RTT, 1986, LANDSCAPE ECOLOGY FORTMANN L, 1989, SOC NATUR RESOUR, V2, P9 FORTMANN L, 1990, RURAL SOCIOL, V55, P214 GUNDERSON LH, 1995, BARRIERS BRIDGES REN, V1, P1 HANN WJ, 1997, ASSESSMENT ECOSYSTEM, V2, P337 HENDRIX WG, 1988, LANDSCAPE URBAN PLAN, V15, P211 HESSBURG PE, 1999, PNWGTR454 USDA FOR S HESSBURG PE, 1999, PNWGTR458 USDA FOR S HESSBURG PE, 2000, FOREST ECOL MANAG, V136, P53 HESSBURG PE, 2000, PNWRP524 USDA FOR SE IVERSON LR, 1988, LANDSCAPE ECOLOGY, V2, P45 JOBES PC, 1991, CONSERV BIOL, V5, P387 JOHNSON LB, 1990, LANDSCAPE ECOL, V4, P31 JOHNSTON KM, 1987, PHOTOGRAMM ENG REM S, V53, P1411 KAMADA M, 1996, LANDSCAPE ECOL, V11, P15 KOOPOWITZ H, 1994, CONSERV BIOL, V8, P425 KUMMER DM, 1994, BIOSCIENCE, V44, P232 LEE RG, 1992, WATERSHED MANAGEMENT, P499 LEHMKUHL JF, 1994, PNWGTR328 USDA FOR S LUDEKE AK, 1990, J ENVIRON MANAGE, V31, P247 MCGARIGAL K, 1995, PNWGTR351 USDA FOR S MCKENDRY JE, 1993, APPL GEOG, V11, P135 ODUM HT, 1936, SO REGIONS US OHARA KL, 1996, WEST J APPL FOR, V11, P97 OLIVER CD, 1996, FOREST STAND DYNAMIC ONEILL RV, 1988, LANDSCAPE ECOL, V1, P153 OTT L, 1986, INTRO STAT METHODS D POWER TM, 1991, CONSERV BIOL, V5, P395 RAPPAPORT RA, 1967, PIGS ANCESTORS RITUA, V1, P1 REIBSAME WE, 1994, BIOSCIENCE, V44, P350 ROBBINS WG, 1983, REGIONALISM PACIFIC ROMME WH, 1989, BIOSCIENCE, V39, P695 ROY J, 1992, GEOGR ANAL, V4, P16 RUDEL TK, 1984, RURAL SOCIOL, V49, P491 RUDEL TK, 1989, RURAL SOCIOL, V54, P327 RUDZITIS G, 1989, AMENITIES MIGRATION SADER SA, 1988, BIOTROPICA, V20, P11 SAVISKY TP, 1993, THESIS ANAL LANDSCAP SCHREIER H, 1994, ENVIRON MANAGE, V18, P139 SKOLE DL, 1994, BIOSCIENCE, V44, P314 SPIES TA, 1994, ECOL APPL, V4, P555 SPURR SH, 1980, FOREST ECOLOGY TOSTA N, 1988, ASSESSING WORLD, V2, P660 TURNER BL, 1991, INT SOC SCI J, V43, P669 TURNER SJ, 1991, QUANTITATIVE METHODS, P17 URBAN DL, 1987, BIOSCIENCE, V37, P119 VONREICHERT C, 1992, REV REG STUD, V22, P25 WALLIN DO, 1994, ECOL APPL, V4, P569 WALLIN DO, 1996, FOREST ECOL MANAG, V85, P291 NR 70 TC 1 J9 ECOL APPL BP 51 EP 67 PY 2003 PD FEB VL 13 IS 1 GA 657JX UT ISI:000181663700005 ER PT J AU Ignazi, JC TI Code of best agricultural practices - Towards a modern agriculture which respects the environment SO FERTILIZER RESEARCH LA English DT Article RP Ignazi, JC, FRENCH COMM DEV RAT FERTILIZAT,PARIS,FRANCE. AB In most European countries, agriculture's responsibility as regards environmental quality, in particular that of water, is widely accepted, as also is its determining role in maintaining the countryside. The conservation of water quality seems to be, for each country, a national issue, but it is also international. All the categories of water are concerned; drinking water (surface or underground), with problems as regards nitrate content and pesticide residues, but also bathing water, with specific microbiological problems, and surface waters with the risk of eutrophication. The discharge into coastal waters of rivers and streams containing undesirable elements extends to the marine environment the concern to limit risks related to agriculture. In France, a Committee comprising members from diffennt sectors for the control of water pollution resulting from agricultural activities (CORPEN) has been working on the nitrate problem since the beginning of the 1980s. More recently it has been concerned also with pesticides. The avoidance of point pollution (from agro-industry, industrial farms) evidently requires a regulatory approach, whereas diffuse pollution requires a careful study of 'agricultural practices', in order to recommend those which seem to present the least risk in terms of nitrate emissions. The recommendations cover the following points; fertilization must be in accordance with the crop needs in order to avoid excessive applications, taking account of supplies from organic sources (manure, slurry), soil must not be lett bare during rainy periods, the presence of nitrates in the soil during periods between crops must be limited (through the management of crop residues, planting of 'trap' crops), the countryside must be maintained. These points are common to all the recommendations, and especially to the codes of good agricultural practice drafted in application of the European Directive. In order to be effective, it is essential that the recommendations should be widely known and accepted. This requires each farmer to receive a clear and consistent message adapted to local conditions (climate, soil, crops) with an identical content, whatever the origin of the recommendation. It is along these lines that a series of advisory operations is at present being developed in France in well defined zones, where appropriate advice is given (particularly as regards fertilization) and adopted by all the advisors in the region. This is the 'Fertimieux' operation, which calls upon the voluntary co-operation of farmers. In addition, in applying the nitrate directive, action programmes will be developed for each of the vulnerable zones. These good practice recommendations will then be obligatory. In taking account of the pesticide risks, attention must be paid to the consistency of the 'nitrate' and 'pesticide' recommendations. Adaptation to the practices of farmers requires a substantial effort in the definition of recommendations and in making them known. All the partners (public authorities, farmers, industry and distributors) must coordinate their efforts. But this is the price for reconciling agricultural activity with maintenance of our way of life, i.e. for ensuring a sustainable agriculture. NR 0 TC 2 J9 FERT RES BP 241 EP 241 PY 1996 VL 43 IS 1-3 GA UK520 UT ISI:A1996UK52000035 ER PT J AU Adejuwon, JO TI Assessing the suitability of the epic crop model for use in the study of impacts of climate variability and climate change in West Africa SO SINGAPORE JOURNAL OF TROPICAL GEOGRAPHY LA English DT Article C1 Obafemi Awolowo Univ, Dept Geog, Ife, Nigeria. RP Adejuwon, JO, Obafemi Awolowo Univ, Dept Geog, Ife, Nigeria. AB The EPIC (Erosion Productivity Impact Calculator) crop model, developed by scientists of the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), has been successfully applied to the study of erosion, water pollution, crop growth and production in the US but is yet to be introduced for serious research purposes in other countries or regions. This paper reports on the applicability of the EPIC 8120 crop model for the assessment of the potential impacts of climate variability and climate change on crop productivity in sub-Saharan West Africa, using Nigeria as the case study. Among the crops whose productivity has been successfully simulated with this model are five of West Africa's staple food crops: maize, millet, sorghum (guinea corn), rice and cassava. Thus, using the model, the sensitivities of maize, sorghum and millet to seasonal rainfall were demonstrated with coefficients of correlation significant at over 98 per cent confidence limits. The validation tests were based on a comparison of the observed and the model-generated yields of rice and maize. The main problems of validation relate to the multiplicity of crop varieties with contrasting performances under similar field conditions. There are also the difficulties in representing micro-environments in the model. Thus, some gaps appear between the observed and the simulated yields, arising from data or model deficiencies, or both. Based on the results of the sensitivity and validation tests, the EPIC crop model could be satisfactorily employed in assessing the impacts of and adaptations to climate variability and climate change. Its use for the estimation of production and the assessment of vulnerabilities need to be pursued with further field surveys and field experimentation. CR *IBSNAT, 1989, DEC SUPP SYST AGR TE *IITA, 1986, IITA MAIZ RES PROGR *IITA, 1986, IITA RIC RES PROGR A WATSON RT, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, V1, P1 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 *IPCC, 2001, CLIM CHANG 2001 SCI *US COUNTR STUD PR, 1994, GUID VULN AD ASS VER ADEJUWON JO, 2002, J NIGERIAN METEOROLO, V3, P35 BUTLER IW, 1989, GAPS GEN PURPOSE FOR DAVIS JA, 1965, Q J METEOROLOGICAL S, V91, P17 EASTERLING WE, 1996, CLIMATE RES, V6, P263 FISCHER G, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE WORLD, P115 HARTKAMP AD, 1999, NRG GIS SERIES JONES JW, 1989, SOYGRO V 5 42 SOYBEA KEAY RWJ, 1959, OUTLINE NIGERIAN VEG MURDOCK GP, 1960, GEOGR REV, V50, P523 RITCHIE JT, 1989, USERS GUIDE CERES MA, V5 WILLIAMS JR, 1989, T AM SOC AGR ENG, V32, P479 NR 18 TC 0 J9 SING J TROP GEOGR BP 44 EP 60 PY 2005 PD MAR VL 26 IS 1 GA 917HA UT ISI:000228450300007 ER PT J AU Alexandrov, VA Schneider, M Koleva, E Moisselin, JM TI Climate variability and change in Bulgaria during the 20th century SO THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY LA English DT Article C1 Natl Inst Meteorol & Hydrol, BG-1784 Sofia, Bulgaria. Meteo France, Toulouse, France. RP Alexandrov, VA, Natl Inst Meteorol & Hydrol, 66 Tzarigradsko Shose Blvd, BG-1784 Sofia, Bulgaria. AB Climate data used for climate variability and change analyses, must be homogeneous, to be accurate. The data currently used in the Meteo-France homogenization procedure, which does not require computation of regional reference series, was applied to precipitation and average air temperature series in Bulgaria. The Caussinus-Mestre method, with a double-step procedure, was used to detect multiple breaks and outliers in the long-term series of precipitation and average air temperature. A two factor linear model was applied for break correction. The homogenization procedure was run till all or most break risk was gone. Analysis of climate variability and change in Bulgaria during the 20(th) century was done on already homogenized precipitation and average air temperature series. The statistical significance of the trends obtained was evaluated by the coefficient of Spearman rank correlation. The variations of annual precipitation in Bulgaria showed an overall decrease. The country has experienced several drought episodes during the 20(th) century, most notably in the 1940s and 1980s. Seasonal precipitation in spring shows a positive trend at most weather stations across the country. The trend for summer and autumn precipitation is negative. A statistically significant increasing trend of winter precipitation in north Bulgaria was detected. No significant warming trend in the country was found during the last century inspite of the warming observed during the last two decades. Summer in Bulgaria tends to be warmer from the beginning of the 1980s. There is a statistically significant increasing trend of average air temperature during the winter season at the weather stations near the Danube river ( north Bulgaria) during the periods 1901 - 2000 and 1931 - 2000. 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Forest Dept, Jaipur 302005, Rajasthan, India. Indian Inst Technol, Dept Geol & Geophys, Kharagpur 721302, W Bengal, India. NOAA Paleoclimatol Program, Boulder, CO 80303 USA. Univ Colorado, Boulder, CO 80303 USA. RP Pandey, DN, Indian Inst Forest Management, Bhopal 462003, India. AB Extreme climate events such as aridity, drought, flood, cyclone and stormy rainfall are expected to leave an impact on human society. They are also expected to generate widespread response to adapt and mitigate the sufferings associated with these extremes. Societal and cultural responses to prolonged drought include population dislocation, cultural separation, habitation abandonment, and societal collapse. A typical response to local aridity is the human migration to safer and productive areas. However, climate and culture can interact in numerous ways. 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Univ N Carolina, Dept Anthropol, Chapel Hill, NC 27599 USA. Acad Sci Malaysia, Selangor 43650, Malaysia. Univ Louvain, Dept Geog, B-1348 Louvain, Belgium. Univ Osnabruck, Inst Environm Syst Res, D-49076 Osnabruck, Germany. Univ Oslo, N-0316 Oslo, Norway. RP Newell, B, Australian Natl Univ, Ctr Resource & Environm Studies, Canberra, ACT 0200, Australia. AB Knowledge integration, the blending of concepts from two or more disciplines to create innovative new worldviews, is a key process in attempts to increase the sustainability of human activities on Earth. In this paper, we describe a 'conceptual template' that can be used to catalyse this process. The template comprises (a) a list of high-level concepts that capture the essential aspects of any significant human-environment problem, plus (b) broad lists of low-level basic concepts drawn from a range of disciplines. Our high-level concepts, which we call 'conceptual clusters', are labelled Dynamics & System, Organisation & Scale, Controlling Models, Management & Policy, Adaptation & Learning, and History. Many of the clustered, lower-level concepts are synonyms and thus provide possible connections between disciplines-for this reason we call them 'nexus concepts'. We suggest that a conceptual template like that presented here can provide strong support to the initial phases of integrative research programs. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 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HongKong Baptist Univ, Dept Geog, Hong Kong, Hong Kong, Peoples R China. RP Uddin, SN, Macquarie Univ, Grad Sch Environm, Sydney, NSW 2109, Australia. AB This article reviews and analyses the advancement of renewable sources of energy in Bangladesh and Thailand in terms of policy intervention and institutional settings. Since renewable forms of energy emit far smaller amounts of greenhouse gas compared with fossil fuels, their use should mitigate climate change impacts while contributing to the provision of energy services. The article turns first to a review of energy-environment trends and the potential for renewables in these two nations. It then discusses strategies for the advancement of renewables. It is argued that further significant efforts can be made towards the advancement of renewables in Bangladesh and Thailand. These two nations could also learn from the experience in industrialized nations and other developing nations with regard to requisite policy instruments and processes. A number of barriers remain to the advancement of renewables, especially in terms of policy arrangements, institutional settings, financing mechanisms and technologies. Resources, cooperation and learning are required in order to overcome such barriers and to foster the development of necessary policy measures. Implementation of the clean development mechanism (CDM) under the Kyoto Protocol, and replication and adaptation of effective strategies from other settings are possible avenues for this. 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Swiss Fed Inst Technol, CH-1015 Lausanne, Switzerland. RP Viguier, LL, Univ Geneva, Fac Econ & Social Sci, CH-1211 Geneva 4, Switzerland. AB The benefits from reducing greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions are not limited to a single consumer or group of consumers but are available to a large set of countries and populations across generations. Underprovision and free-riding are thus to be expected in the climate change issue. Optimal provision of this type of public good requires creating incentives for international cooperation. Game theorists have proposed to restructure incentives through issues linkages consisting in exchanging concessions across different policy dimensions. In this paper we discuss the opportunity to link climate change to international trade, technology R&D and diffusion, and greening development assistance. We propose another option, called the "rent-sharing" approach, that would guarantee meaningful participation of developing countries (DCs) without challenging their economic development. Developing countries would have the opportunity to enter the emission markets, and benefit from financial transfers, only if their agree with a rule that would guarantee a gainful domestic participation. Our numerical example shows that China may be better off, while accepting a significant CO2 emission reduction effort. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 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AB Pursuant to the commitments under the Framework Convention of Climate Change (FCCC), all Annex I Parties of FCCC have compiled their National Communications on Climate Change. There, Parties have reported the national greenhouse gas inventories, policies, and measures to address climate change, the greenhouse gas emissions projections, vulnerability and adaptation to climate change, and education and public awareness. Implementation of policies and measures to address climate change in economies in transition (EIT) is very complicated due to the experienced deep economic crisis. It is important to outline the efforts of EIT countries to identify their climate change policy and to recognize the most effective policies and measures achieved under these countries' special circumstances. This paper compiles information from the policies and measures section of the National Communications of nine EIT countries. The analysis has been carried out in the framework of overall policy context and the national circumstances of EIT countries in terms of energy and economy development. In general, policies and measures in EIT countries tend to follow the trends observed in the other Annex I Parties to the FCCC. They address primarily carbon dioxide from fossil fuel combustion as the most important greenhouse gas and the energy transformation sector as the major greenhouse emissions source. The most effective mitigation measures - in terms of both greenhouse gas emission reduction and costs were energy efficiency and the promotion of non-fossil energy sources. A prevailing part of policies and measures implemented or under implementation in EIT countries were cost-effective and no-regret measures. It was considered very difficult in these countries to go beyond no-regret measures in a situation of deep economic crisis and insufficient investments. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science Ltd. CR 1994, 1 NAT COMM CZECH REP 1995, 1 NAT COMM NAT PROC *NAT COMM IMPL COM, 1994, HUNG STAB GREENH GAS *NAT COMM REP LATV, 1995, UN FRAM CONV CLIM CH *REP BULG, 1996, 1 NAT COMM CLIM CHAN *RUSS FED, 1995, 1 NAT COMM CLIM CHAN *SLOV REP, 1995, 1 NAT COMM *UN FRAM CONV CLIM, 1994, NAT REP 1 C PART *UN FRAM CONV CLIM, 1995, EST 1 NAT COMM NR 9 TC 0 J9 APPL ENERG BP 445 EP 461 PY 1997 PD MAR-APR VL 56 IS 3-4 GA XR663 UT ISI:A1997XR66300021 ER PT J AU Curran, SR Kumar, A Lutz, W Williams, M TI Interactions between coastal and marine ecosystems and human population systems: Perspectives on how consumption mediates this interaction SO AMBIO LA English DT Article C1 Princeton Univ, Undergrad Studies Sociol, Princeton, NJ 08544 USA. Populat Project, IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria. Austrian Acad Syst, Inst Demog, Vienna, Austria. Univ Vienna, A-1010 Vienna, Austria. RP Curran, SR, Princeton Univ, Undergrad Studies Sociol, 153 Wallace Hall, Princeton, NJ 08544 USA. 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Univ Oregon, Dept Anthropol, Eugene, OR 97403 USA. Humboldt State Univ, Dept Anthropol, Arcata, CA 95521 USA. RP Rick, TC, So Methodist Univ, Dept Anthropol, Dallas, TX 75275 USA. AB California's Channel Islands were home to some of the most distinctive Native American peoples along the Pacific Coast. Never connected to the mainland during the Quaternary, the Channel Islands have an impoverished terrestrial flora and fauna, but some of the richest and most productive marine environments in the Americas, including diverse kelp forest, intertidal, and offshore marine habitats. Native Americans occupied the Channel Islands for roughly 13,000 calendar years until the early nineteenth century, providing one of the longest and best preserved records of maritime hunter-gatherers in the Americas. 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VL 19 IS 3 GA 090NL UT ISI:000240957900001 ER PT J AU Godal, O TI The IPCC's assessment of multidisciplinary issues: The case of greenhouse gas indices - An editorial essay SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Editorial Material C1 CICERO, N-0318 Oslo, Norway. Univ Bergen, Dept Econ, N-5020 Bergen, Norway. RP Godal, O, CICERO, POB 1129, N-0318 Oslo, Norway. CR AAHEIM HA, 1999, ENVIRON RESOUR ECON, V14, P413 BRUCE JP, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995 ECKAUS RS, 1992, ENERGY J, V13, P25 FANKHAUSER S, 1994, ENERGY J, V15, P157 FUGLESTVEDT JS, 2003, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V58, P267 GODAL O, 2002, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V52, P93 HAMMITT JK, 1996, NATURE, V381, P301 HOEL M, 1995, ANN INT SOC DYN GAME, V2, P89 HOUGHTON JT, 1990, CLIMATE CHANGE 1990 HOUGHTON JT, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995 HOUGHTON JT, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995 KANDLIKAR M, 1996, ENERG ECON, V18, P265 MANNE AS, 2001, NATURE, V410, P675 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 METZ B, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 MICHAELIS P, 1992, ENVIRON RESOUR ECON, V2, P61 MICHAELIS P, 1999, STRUCTURAL CHANGE EC, V10, P239 REILLY JM, 1993, ENV RES EC, V3, P41 SCHMITZ B, 1993, Z DIFFERENTIELLE DIA, V14, P1 SKODVIN T, 1997, AMBIO, V26, P351 SMITH SJ, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V44, P445 TOL RSJ, 1999, ENERGY J, V20, P61 WATSON RT, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, V1, P1 WIGLEY TML, 1998, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V25, P2285 NR 24 TC 2 J9 CLIMATIC CHANGE BP 243 EP 249 PY 2003 PD JUN VL 58 IS 3 GA 682VD UT ISI:000183112300001 ER PT J AU Tompkins, EL Adger, WN TI Does adaptive management of natural resources enhance resilience to climate change? SO ECOLOGY AND SOCIETY LA English DT Article C1 Univ E Anglia, Tyndall Ctr Climate Change Res, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. RP Tompkins, EL, Univ E Anglia, Tyndall Ctr Climate Change Res, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. AB Emerging insights from adaptive and community-based resource management suggest that building resilience into both human and ecological systems is an effective way to cope with environmental change characterized by future surprises or unknowable risks. We argue that these emerging insights have implications for policies and strategies for responding to climate change. We review perspectives on collective action for natural resource management to inform understanding of climate response capacity. We demonstrate the importance of social learning, specifically in relation to the acceptance of strategies that build social and ecological resilience. Societies and communities dependent on natural resources need to enhance their capacity to adapt to the impacts of future climate change, particularly when such impacts could lie outside their experienced coping range. This argument is illustrated by an example of present-day collective action for community-based coastal management in Trinidad and Tobago. The case demonstrates that community-based management enhances adaptive capacity in two ways: by building networks that are important for coping with extreme events and by retaining the resilience of the underpinning resources and ecological systems. 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Univ Durham, Dept Archaeol, Durham DH1 3LE, England. CUNY Hunter Coll, Dept Anthropol, New York, NY 10021 USA. Foroya Forminnissavn, FO-110 Torshavn, Foroyar, Denmark. Univ Laval, Dept Hist, Quebec City, PQ G1K 7P4, Canada. Univ Aberdeen, Dept Geog, Aberdeen AB24 3UF, Scotland. Univ Aberdeen, No Studies Ctr, Aberdeen AB24 3UF, Scotland. Bournemouth Univ, Sch Conservat Sci, Poole BH12 5BB, Dorset, England. Univ Edinburgh, Sch Geosci, Edinburgh EH8 9XP, Midlothian, Scotland. SUERC, E Kilbride G75 0QF, Lanark, Scotland. Univ Stirling, Sch Biol & Environm Sci, Stirling FK9 4LA, Scotland. Univ Coll London, Inst Archaeol, London WC1H 0PY, England. RP Lawson, IT, Univ Leeds, Sch Geog, Earth & Biosphere Inst, Leeds LS2 9JT, W Yorkshire, England. AB We present palaeoenvironmental, geomorphological, archaeological, and place- name data which allow a holistic assessment of the history of landscape change on Sandoy, Faroe Islands, especially in terms of the changes that occurred in response to the colonization of the island by humans. In contrast to other situations in the North Atlantic region, there is considerable continuity in the patterns and processes of landscape evolution across the initial settlement horizon. Many of the characteristic features of post- settlement North Atlantic landscapes - absence of trees, widespread blanket mires, high rates of soil erosion - were already in place when the first people arrived. Although human impact on Sandoy appears to have been light, conversely, the unusual environment forced major alterations of the subsistence economy imported by the colonists. Settlement- era archaeological records suggest that, from the start, patterns of resource use differed substantially from the regional norm, and these differences became amplified over time as the Faroese economy created a locally sustainable cultural landscape. 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Vrije Univ Amsterdam, Inst Environm Studies, Amsterdam, Netherlands. Carnegie Mellon Univ, Ctr Integrated Study Human Dimens Global Change, Pittsburgh, PA 15213 USA. RP Tol, RSJ, ZMK, Troplowitzstr 7, D-22529 Hamburg, Germany. AB Climate change may well lead to an increased risk of river floods in the Netherlands. However, the impacts of changes in water management on river floods are larger, either enhancing or reducing flood risks. Therefore, the abilities of water-management authorities to learn that climate and river flows are changing, and to recognize and act upon the implications, are of crucial importance. At the same time, water-management authorities respond to other trends, such as the democratization of decision making, which alter their ability to react to climate change. These complex interactions are illustrated with changes in river flood risk management for the Rhine and the Meuse in the Netherlands over the last 50 years. A scenario study is used to seek insight into the question of whether current water-management institutions and their likely successors are capable of dealing with plausible future flood risks. The scenarios show that new and major infrastructure is needed to keep flood risks at their current level. Such a structural solution to future flood risks is feasible, but requires considerable political will and institutional reform, both for planning and implementation. It is unlikely that reform will be fast enough or the will strong enough. CR *COMM WAT MAAS, 1994, MAAS TER *DELFT HYDR, 1998, RIJN TERM BRIGNALL AP, 1998, CLIMATE CHANGE RISK, P79 COHEN SJ, 2000, WATER INT, V25, P253 DEVILLENEUVE CHV, 1996, M R DEC, P12 GILHUIS PC, 1996, M R DEC GRUEBLER A, 1998, MITIGATION ADAPTATIO, V3, P383 HANDMER J, 1998, CLIMATE CHANGE RISK, P125 HISSCHEMOLLER M, 1985, SUCCES FAALFACTOREN KATSBURG PRA, 1996, WATERSCHAP, V81, P122 KELLY PM, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V47, P325 KRAEMER W, 1999, COMMUNICATION KROON J, 1997, NRC 0507 KWADIJK J, 1994, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V27, P199 LANGEN A, IN PRESS CLIMATIC CH LANGEN A, 1998, CLIMATE CHANGE RISK, P162 MIDDELKOOP H, 2001, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V49, P105 MILLER KA, 1997, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V35, P157 MOSTERT E, 1997, RBA SERIES RIVER BAS, V6 MOSTERT E, 1998, EUROPEAN WATER MANAG, V1, P26 OLSTHOORN AA, 2001, FLOODS FLOOD MANAGEM, P43 PARMET B, 1995, RIVM410100069 PENNINGROWSELL EC, 1994, FLOODS EUROPE FLOOD PERDOK PJ, 1995, RBA SERIES RIVER BAS, V3 REYNARD NS, 2001, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V48, P343 RIEBSAME WE, 1995, CLIMATE CHANGES INT, P57 SCHUURMAN A, 1995, W9519 VRIJ U I ENV S SMIT B, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, P877 STRZEPEK KM, IN PRESS INTEGRATED TOL RSJ, 1998, ENERG POLICY, V26, P257 TOL RSJ, 1998, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V8, P109 VANDENBERG JT, 1997, WATERSTAATS WATERSCH VANDERGRIJP NM, 2001, FLOODS FLOOD MANAGEM, P5 VANDERGRIJP NM, 2001, FLOODS FLOOD MANAGEM, P67 VANDERWERFF PE, 2001, FLOODS FLOOD MANAGEM, P89 VANHALL A, 1997, M R, V11 VANHALL A, 1997, WATERBEHEERSWETGEVIN VANSCHOUBROECK C, 1997, GENEVA PAP RISK INS, V22, P238 YOHE GW, IN PRESS GLOBAL ENV NR 39 TC 0 J9 RISK ANAL BP 575 EP 583 PY 2003 PD JUN VL 23 IS 3 GA 689EC UT ISI:000183477800015 ER PT J AU Aggarwal, PK Joshi, PK Ingram, JSI Gupta, RK TI Adapting food systems of the Indo-Gangetic plains to global environmental change: key information needs to improve policy formulation SO ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE & POLICY LA English DT Article C1 Indian Agr Res Inst, Div Environm Sci, New Delhi 110012, India. Int Food Policy Res Inst, Washington, DC 20036 USA. NERC, Ctr Ecol & Hydrol, Wallingford OX10 8BB, Oxon, England. CIMMYT, Rice Wheat Consortium Indoganget Plains, RWC, New Delhi 110012, India. RP Aggarwal, PK, Indian Agr Res Inst, Div Environm Sci, New Delhi 110012, India. AB The Indo-Gangetic plain (IGP; including regions of Pakistan, India, Nepal, and Bangladesh) is generally characterised by fertile soils, favourable climate and an abundant supply of water. Nevertheless, the challenge of increasing food production in the IGP in line with demand grows ever greater; any perturbation in agriculture will considerably affect the food systems of the region and increase the vulnerability of the resource-poor population. Increasing regional production is already complicated by increasing competition for land resources by non-agricultural sectors and by the deterioration of agri-environments and water resources. Global environmental change (GEC), especially changes in climate mean values and variability, will further complicate the agricultural situation and will therefore, have serious implications for food systems of the region. Strategies to reduce the vulnerability of the region's food systems to GEC need to be based on a combination of technical and policy options, and developed in recognition of the concurrent changes in socioeconomic stresses. Adaptation options need to be assessed with regard to their socioeconomic and environmental efficacy, but a greater understanding of the interactions of food systems with GEC is needed to be able to do this with confidence. This paper discusses information needs relating to resource management and policy support to guide the development of research planning for increasing the robustness of IGP food systems to GEC. Further information is needed to develop a range of adaptation strategies including augmenting production and its sustainability, increasing income from agricultural enterprises, diversification from rice-wheat systems, improving land use and natural resource management, and instigating more flexible policies and institutions. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *FAO, 2002, WORLD AGR 2015 2030 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 AGGARWAL PK, 2000, OUTLOOK AGR, V29, P259 AGGARWAL PK, 2000, RICE WHEAT CONSORTIU, V10, P16 AGGARWAL PK, 2001, LAND USE ANAL PLANNI, P167 ALI M, 2000, 2480 WORLD BANK DAWE D, 2000, FIELD CROP RES, V66, P175 DESAI GM, 1988, ANN SEM SELF REL FER DOORJEE K, 2002, WORKSH AGR DIV S AS GRCE PR, 2003, ASA SPECIAL PUBLICAT, V65 GUPTA RK, 2001, RESOURCE CONSERVING HOBBS PR, 1996, 9601 NRG CIMMYT ISLAM MR, 1999, RICE WHEAT CONSOTRIU, V5, P29 JOSHI PK, 1994, STRATEGIC CHANGE IND, P237 JOSHI PK, 2000, LEGUMES RICE WHEAT C, P176 JOSHI PK, 2002, DIVERSFICATON AGR S JOSHI PK, 2003, ANAL PRODUCTIVITY CH KUMAR P, 1998, EC POL WKLY, V26, A152 NAMBIAR KKM, 1989, FERTILISER NEWS, V34, P11 NAYYAR VK, 2001, RICE WHEAT CROPPING, P87 PARODA RS, 1994, RAPA PUBLICATION PARODA RS, 1996, 2 INT CROP SCI C NEW PARODA RS, 2000, AGR EC RES REV, V13, P1 PINGALI PL, 1999, RICE WHEAT CONSORTIU, V5, P1 RABBINGE P, 1999, FOOD SECURITY DIFFER, P153 RAMESHCHAND, 2000, CAPITAL FORMATION IN SINHA SK, 1998, DECLINE CROP PRODUCT SWAMINATHAN MS, 1982, SCI INTEGRATED RURAL SWAMINATHAN MS, 2002, FOOD INSECURITY ATLA, P212 NR 29 TC 0 J9 ENVIRON SCI POLICY BP 487 EP 498 PY 2004 VL 7 IS 6 GA 876GE UT ISI:000225483900005 ER PT J AU Huang, GH Cohen, SJ Yin, YY Bass, B TI Land resources adaptation planning under changing climate - a study for the Mackenzie Basin SO RESOURCES CONSERVATION AND RECYCLING LA English DT Article C1 Univ Regina, Fac Engn, Environm Syst Engn Program, Regina, SK S4S 0A2, Canada. RP Huang, GH, Univ Regina, Fac Engn, Environm Syst Engn Program, Regina, SK S4S 0A2, Canada. AB In the last decade, climate change has been one of the major concerns with regard to the health of the earth's ecosystem. The problem of a changing climate is related to not only climate, energy consumption and emissions of greenhouse gases, but also effects of such a change on the earth's ecosystems, resources and human settlements, as well as the need to reduce or avoid these effects. In this study, an inexact-fuzzy multiobjective programming model was proposed for adaptation planning of land resources management in the Mackenzie Basin under changing climate. This integrated adaptation planning enables the inclusion of systems interaction and feedback mechanisms and can therefore yield insights that scattered information cannot offer. Many sectors were considered, including agriculture, forest, wildlife habitat preservation, wetland preservation, hunting, recreation, and soil conservation, as well as their interactive relationships. The results indicate that uncertain, multiobjective, dynamic and interactive features of the study system have been effectively reflected. Temporal variations of land characteristics and and-use activities exist due to changes in climatic, economic and environmental conditions. However, through effective systems analysis and planning, the desired land-use patterns for adapting to the changing climate and compromising objectives from different stakeholders could be obtained. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. 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RP Reilly, JM, MIT, Joint Program Sci & Policy Global Change, Cambridge, MA 02139 USA. AB Terrestrial carbon sinks and sources were introduced into climate change mitigation related policy relatively late in the design of the architecture of those policies. Much literature addresses how terrestrial sources and sinks differ from emissions from fossil fuel combustion and, hence, is a possible justification for differential treatment of them in policy design. Late introduction in climate policy discussions and perceived differences appear to have resulted in very different policy approaches for sinks versus fossil emission sources. The attempt to differentiate has generated complexity in policy design and likely inefficiency in the operation of these policies. We review these issues and find that the characteristics claimed to apply to sinks apply as well to fossil sources, and differences that do exist are often more a matter of degree than of kind. Because cap-and-trade has gained momentum as the instrument of choice to control fossil emissions, we use as a starting point, how such a cap-and-trade system could be altered to include terrestrial carbon sinks and sources. CR *EC, 2005, EU EM TRAD OP SCHEM *KYOT RAT ADV GROU, 2003, REP KYOT RAT ADV GRO *PEW CTR, 2005, EUR UN EM TRAD SCHEM *POINT CARB, 2005, CARB MARK EUR *UNFCCC, 1997, KYOT PROT *UNFCCC, 2000, METH ISS LAND US LAN *UNFCCC, 2005, KYOT PROT STAT RAT *US DOE, 2002, FED REGISTER, V67, P30370 *WHIT HOUS, 2002, US CLIM STRAT NEW AP BABIKER M, 2004, ENERGY J, V25, P33 BABIKER MH, 2002, ENVIRON SCI POLICY, V5, P195 BABIKER MH, 2003, ENVIRON MODEL ASSESS, V8, P187 BETZ R, 2004, ENERGY ENV, V15, P375 BIRDSEY R, 2000, LAND USE LAND USE CH, P125 BOHRINGER C, 2001, CLIMATE POLITICS KYO ELLERMAN AD, 2000, MARKETS CLEAN AIR US ELLERMAN AD, 2001, REV ENERGIE, V524, P105 FELZER B, 2004, TELLUS B, V56, P230 FELZER B, 2005, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V73, P345 HERZOG H, 2003, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V59, P293 HOUGHTON JT, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 LEWANDROWSKI JK, 2004, EC SEQUESTERING CARB, P1 MANNE A, 2001, US REJECTION KYOTO P, P1 MARLAND G, 2001, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V51, P101 MCCARL BA, 2005, COMP VALUE BIOL CARB MCCARL BA, 2006, INTEGRATED ASSESSMEN MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 METZ B, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 PALTSEV S, 2003, EMISSIONS TRADING RE PALTSEV S, 2006, IN PRESS INTEGRATED REILLY JM, 2003, COLORADO J INT ENV L, P117 REINER DM, 2001, ENVIRONMENT, V43, P36 SARMIENTO JL, 2002, PHYS TODAY, V55, P30 SCHLAMADINGER B, 1999, TELLUS B, V51, P314 WATSON RT, 2000, LAND USE LAND USE CH WIEBE K, 1996, AER744 USDA YANG T, 2005, 113 MIT ZHUANG Q, 2003, 104 MIT NR 38 TC 0 J9 CLIMATIC CHANGE BP 173 EP 197 PY 2007 PD JAN VL 80 IS 1-2 GA 126ZW UT ISI:000243555300011 ER PT J AU Pruszak, Z Zawadzka, E TI Vulnerability of Poland's coast to sea-level rise SO COASTAL ENGINEERING JOURNAL LA English DT Article C1 Polish Acad Sci, Inst Hydroengn, PL-80953 Gdansk, Poland. Maritime Inst, Dept Maritime Hydrotech, PL-80307 Gdansk, Poland. Univ Gdansk, Dept Geomorphol & Quaternary Geol, PL-80957 Gdansk, Poland. RP Pruszak, Z, Polish Acad Sci, Inst Hydroengn, Koscierska 7, PL-80953 Gdansk, Poland. AB Over the last decades, the Polish coast, about 500 km long and predominantly featured by sandy, low-lying beaches, has been exposed to various threats resulting from intensified climate change and Accelerated Sea-Level Rise (ASLR). This has manifested itself in the growing intensity of shoreline, dune and cliff erosion and by the increasing. necessity of their protection. The current study is both a summary and an extension of the existing Polish studies and analyses on the present and predicted influence of ASLR on the coast. First, the Polish coast was divided into three basic area types (AREA I, II, III) according to their geographic and socio-economic background. Then, two different scenarios of accelerated sea-level rise (ASLR1 - 30 cm/100 yrs and ASLR2 - 100 cm/100 yrs) were assumed. After that threats of land loss and the risk of its temporary or partial inundation was analyzed in connection with the assessment of the material and social costs and losses. These analyses were made within the framework of two adaptation scenarios, i.e. retreat (do nothing) and full protection. The performed analyses have shown that the greatest threat of partial or full land loss and the associated material and social costs are expected to occur in two regions of the Polish coast. One of them is situated in the eastern sector of the Polish coast and covers the agglomeration of Gdansk and the Zulawy polders. The other is located in the west and comprises low-lying areas around the Szczecin Lagoon and the vicinity of the Odra river mouth. These areas both require intensive care and protection efforts. CR *IPCC CZMS, 1992, GLOB CLIM CHANG RIS BLOMGREN S, 1999, 1027 LUND U SWEDEN, P83 MAJEWSKI A, 1983, MONOGRAPH STORM SURG MAJEWSKI A, 1990, WYD GEOLOGICZNE MIMURA N, 2000, DATA BOOK SEA LEVEL, P128 NICHOLLS RJ, 1998, CLIMATE RES, V11, P5 ORVIKU K, 2003, J COASTAL RES, V19, P364 PRUSZAK Z, 2000, COAST ENG J, V42, P31 PRUSZAK Z, 2000, P SURVAS EXP WORKSH, P69 ROTNICKI K, 1995, J COASTAL RES, P1111 VELINGA P, 1989, CLIMATE CHANGE, V15, P175 ZAWADZKA E, 1992, P ICC KIEL 92 KIEL, P595 ZAWADZKA E, 1994, ICCE 94 KOB, P568 ZAWADZKA E, 1996, P 25 INT C COAST ENG, P2955 ZAWADZKA E, 1999, GTN, P147 ZEIDLER R, 1992, CASE STUDY REPORT, P165 ZEIDLER RB, 1997, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V36, P151 NR 17 TC 0 J9 COAST ENG J BP 131 EP 155 PY 2005 PD JUN-SEP VL 47 IS 2-3 GA 970GP UT ISI:000232293600004 ER PT J AU DOW, JW TI ANTHROPOLOGY - THE MAPPING OF CULTURAL TRAITS FROM FIELD DATA SO SOCIAL SCIENCE COMPUTER REVIEW LA English DT Article RP DOW, JW, OAKLAND UNIV,DEPT SOCIOL & ANTHROPOL,ROCHESTER,MI 48309. AB Geographical information illuminates many features of culture that cannot be seen otherwise. Higher-resolution mapping of cultural traits, now possible with computerized techniques, can open a new window on human cultural adaptation. It can look at where people live on a scale that is small enough to reveal the features of the environment to which their cultures respond. This article discusses the mapping of language in a rural area of Mexico. Much GIS technology has become so elaborate that it is not appropriate to cultural anthropology. The project described was successful because it developed and used techniques that were appropriate to the problem being studied and the situation in the field. The techniques can be used for other types of mapping projects. CR 1985, SCIENCE, V229, P292 1992, ASTM STANDARDIZA DEC *MEXICO I NAC EST, 1987, SINT GEOGR NOM ANF A *MEXICO I NAC EST, 1988, SINT GEOGR NOM AN FA BATTY P, 1992, COMPUT GEOSCI, V18, P453 BRANDT R, 1992, WORLD ARCHAEOL, V24, P268 MARTIN D, 1993, APPL GEOGR, V13, P45 OMURA G, 1988, MASTERING AUTOCAD ROBBINS C, 1984, PRACTICING ANTHR, V6, P15 SMITH B, 1993, BYTE, V18, P188 WHITE DR, 1985, WORLD CULTURES, V1, P306 NR 11 TC 0 J9 SOC SCI COMPUT REV BP 479 EP 492 PY 1994 PD WIN VL 12 IS 4 GA QD858 UT ISI:A1994QD85800002 ER PT J AU ROBSON, E TI USE OF CONCEPT OF ADAPTATION IN CULTURAL-ANTHROPOLOGY SO SOCIAL SCIENCE INFORMATION SUR LES SCIENCES SOCIALES LA French DT Article RP ROBSON, E, MAISON SCI HOMME,54 BLVD RASPAIL,F-75006 PARIS,FRANCE. 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Ctr Halieut Mediterraneen & Trop, F-34203 Sete, France. RP Salas, S, IPN, CINVESTAV, Unidad Merida, Antigua Carretera Progreso Km 6, Merida 97310, Yucatan, Mexico. AB In pursuing their livelihood, fishers develop strategies when faced with changes in regulations and other fishery conditions. Changes involve each individual in a decision-making process governed by his/her own goals or constraints. Despite this reality. the complex dynamics of fishing has usually been ignored in designing management initiatives. which has contributed to management failures in many parts of the world. Fishers have generally been treated as fixed elements, with no consideration of individual attitudes based on their operating scales (geographical, ecological. social and economic) and personal goals. We review existing research on the social. economic and behavioural dynamics of fishing to provide insight into fisher behaviour and its implications for fisheries management. Emphasis is placed on fisher perception. and how fishers develop dynamic fishing tactics and strategies as an adaptive response to changes in resource abundance, environmental conditions and market or regulatory constraints. We conclude that knowledge of these dynamics is essential for effective management, and we discuss how such information can be collected. analysed and integrated into fisheries assessment and management. Particular emphasis is placed on small-scale fisheries. but some examples from industrial fleets are provided to highlight similar issues in different types of fisheries. CR ACHESON JM, 1975, HUM ECOL, V3, P183 ACHESON JM, 1998, LINKING SOCIAL ECOLO, P390 ALLISON EH, 2001, MAR POLICY, V25, P377 APOSTLE R, 1985, CANADIAN J FISHERIES, V43, P1187 ASWANI S, 1998, SPC TRADITIONAL MARI, P19 BABCOCK EA, 2000, CAN J FISH AQUAT SCI, V57, P357 BEGOSSI A, 1996, P WORLD FISH C FISH, P125 BEGOSSI A, 1998, FISH RES, V34, P269 BENE C, 1996, CAN J FISH AQUAT SCI, V53, P563 BLYTH RE, 2002, ENVIRON CONSERV, V29, P493 BOCKSTAEL NE, 1983, J ENVIRON ECON MANAG, V10, P125 BROSSIER J, 1989, QUELQUES PRINCIPLES, P25 BROWN PM, 1995, J ECON BEHAV ORGAN, V27, P381 CABRERA JL, 1997, OCEANIDES, V12, P41 CABRERA JL, 2001, AQUAT LIVING RESOUR, V14, P19 CASTILLA JC, 2001, REV FISH BIOL FISHER, V11, P1 CHABOUD C, 1995, QUESTIONS DYNAMIQUE, P263 CHARLES AT, 1995, AQUAT LIVING RESOUR, V8, P233 CHARLES AT, 2000, SUSTAINABLE FISHERY, V5 CHUENPAGDEE R, 2002, COAST MANAGE, V30, P183 COVE JJ, 1973, J FISH RES BOARD CAN, V30, P249 CROWDER LB, 1998, FISHERIES, V23, P8 DORN M, 1997, CANADIAN J FISHERIES, V5, P180 DREYFUSLEON M, 2002, P 7 INT C SIM AD BEH, P397 DREYFUSLEON MJ, 1999, ECOL MODEL, V120, P287 DURRENBERGER EP, 1993, HUM ORGAN, V52, P194 EALES J, 1986, MAR RES EC, V2, P331 ERDMANN MV, 1996, ICLARM Q, V19, P54 FERRARIS J, 1995, QUESTIONS DYNAMIQUE, P263 FONTENEAU A, 1994, AQUAT LIVING RESOUR, V7, P139 FRANCIS RICC, 1997, CAN J FISH AQUAT SCI, V54, P1699 GAERTNER D, 1996, AQUAT LIVING RESOUR, V9, P305 GAERTNER D, 1998, C VOL SCI PAP ICCAT, V50, P628 GAERTNER D, 1999, CAN J FISH AQUAT SCI, V56, P394 GAERTNER D, 2002, EFFICACITE SENNEURS GATEWOOD JB, 1984, AM ETHNOL, V11, P350 GATEWOOD JB, 1984, AM ETHNOL, V11, P378 GUTTMAN JM, 1996, J ECON BEHAV ORGAN, V29, P27 HANNA SS, 1993, N AM J FISH MANAGE, V13, P367 HART PJB, 1998, REINVENTING FISHERIE, P215 HART PJB, 1998, REINVENTING FISHERIE, P227 HE X, 1997, FISH RES, V31, P147 HELU SL, 1999, NATURAL RESOURCE MOD, V12, P231 HERNANDEZ D, 2000, THESIS CINVESTAV MER HILBORN R, 1985, CAN J FISH AQUAT SCI, V42, P2 HILBORN R, 1992, QUANTITATIVE FISHERI HILBORN R, 2001, CAN J FISH AQUAT SCI, V58, P99 HOLLAND DS, 1999, CAN J FISH AQUAT SCI, V56, P253 JACOBSON LD, 1993, N AM J FISH MANAGE, V13, P27 JENTOFT S, 1998, MAR POLICY, V22, P423 KUPERAN K, 1994, MAR POLICY, V18, P306 LALOE F, 1991, ICES MAR SCI S, V193, P281 LANE DE, 1988, CANADIAN J FISHERIES, V45, P782 MANGEL M, 1988, DYNAMIC MODELING BEH MCGOODWIN JR, 1990, CRISIS WORLDS FISHER MCKELVEY R, 1983, J ENVIRON ECON MANAG, V10, P287 MILLER ML, 1979, URBAN LIFE, V11, P27 MILLER RJ, 1995, BIOL LOBSTER HOMARUS, P89 PALSSON G, 1982, J ANTHROPOL RES, V38, P227 PARE L, 1994, COSTA YUCATAN DESARL PAULY D, 1997, AM FISH S S, V20, P40 PECH N, 1997, ICES J MAR SCI, V54, P32 PELLETIER D, 2000, CAN J FISH AQUAT SCI, V57, P51 PETSOEDE C, 2001, FISHERIES MANAG ECOL, V8, P15 PITCHER TJ, 2000, FISH FISHERIES, V1, P73 POMEROY RS, 1997, MAR POLICY, V21, P445 POMEROY RS, 1997, MAR POLICY, V21, P465 PUNT AE, 1997, REV FISH BIOL FISHER, V7, P35 ROBINSON C, 1997, CEMARE PORTSMOUTH, P110 ROY N, 1998, MARINE RESOURCE ECON, V13, P197 RUTTAN LM, 1998, HUM ECOL, V26, P43 SALAS S, 1991, REV INVESTIGATIONES, V12, P293 SALAS S, 2000, FISHING STRATEGIES S SAMPSON DB, 1991, ICES J MAR SCI, V48, P291 SARDA F, 1998, FISH RES, V36, P149 SCOONES I, 1998, 72 IDS SEIJO JC, 1989, FISHERIES CREDIT PRO, P89 SEIJO JC, 1994, P 6 C INT I FISH EC, P209 SEIJO JC, 1998, 368 FAO SMITH CL, 1986, N AM J FISH MANAGE, V6, P88 SPAGNOLO G, 1999, J ECON BEHAV ORGAN, V38, P1 VACARODRIGUEZ JG, 2000, CIENC MAR, V26, P369 WILEN JE, 1979, J FISH RES BOARD CAN, V36, P855 WILEN JE, 2002, B MAR SCI, V70, P553 WOSNITZA C, 1992, C P CONTR ESTUD PESC, P56 YEW TS, 1996, MARINE RESOURCE EC, V11, P85 NR 86 TC 0 J9 FISH FISH BP 153 EP 167 PY 2004 PD JUN VL 5 IS 2 GA 828BW UT ISI:000221948700005 ER PT J AU Leemans, R Eickhout, B Strengers, B Bouwman, L Schaeffer, M TI The consequences of uncertainties in land use, climate and vegetation responses on the terrestrial carbon SO SCIENCE IN CHINA SERIES C-LIFE SCIENCES LA English DT Article C1 Natl Inst Publ Hlth & Environm, NL-3720 BA Bilthoven, Netherlands. RP Leemans, R, Natl Inst Publ Hlth & Environm, POB 1, NL-3720 BA Bilthoven, Netherlands. AB The IPCC SRES narratives were implemented in IMAGE 22 to evaluate the future condition of the climate system (including the biosphere). A series of scenario experiments was used to assess possible ranges in emissions and concentrations of greenhouse gases, climate change and impacts. These experiments focussed on the role of the terrestrial carbon cycle. The experiments show that the SRES narratives dominate human emissions and not natural processes. In contrary, atmospheric CO2 concentration strongly differs between the experiments. Atmospheric CO2 concentrations range for A1B from 714 to 1009 ppmv CO2 in 2100. The spread of this range is comparable with the full SIRES range as implemented in IMAGE 2.2 (515-895 mumol/mol CO2)The most important negative and positive feedback processes in IMAGE 2.2 on the build-up of CO2 concentrations are CO2 fertilisation and soil respiration respectively. Indirect effects of these processes further change land-use patterns, deforestation rates and alter the natural C fluxes. The cumulative effects of these changes have a pronounced influence on the final CO2 concentrations. Our scenario experiments highlight the importance of a proper parameterisation of feedback processes, C-cycle and land use in determining the future states of the climate system. CR *IMAGE TEAM, 2001, IMAGE 2 2 IMPL SRES ALCAMO J, 1998, GLOBAL CHANGE SCENAR BACHER A, 1998, CLIM DYNAM, V14, P431 BOER GJ, 2000, CLIM DYNAM, V16, P405 COX PM, 2000, NATURE, V408, P180 HAYWOOD JM, 1997, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V24, P1335 HIRST AC, 1996, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V23, P3361 HOUGHTON JT, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 HOUGHTON RA, 1999, SCIENCE, V285, P574 JOOS F, 2001, GLOBAL BIOGEOCHEM CY, V15, P891 KEELING CD, 2001, TRENDS COMPENDIUM DA LEEMANS R, 1994, WATER AIR SOIL POLL, V76, P133 MARLAND G, 2000, TRENDS COMPENDIUM DA MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 MITCHELL JFB, 1995, NATURE, V376, P501 NAKICENOVIC N, 2000, SPECIAL REPORT EMISS PRENTICE IC, 1992, J BIOGEOGR, V19, P117 SCHIMEL DS, 1997, ECOL MONOGR, V67, P251 SCHLESINGER ME, 2000, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V65, P167 VANMINNEN JG, 2000, GLOB CHANGE BIOL, V6, P595 NR 20 TC 2 J9 SCI CHINA SER C BP 126 EP + PY 2002 PD OCT VL 45 GA 633CQ UT ISI:000180262000015 ER PT J AU LITTLE, MA TI HUMAN-ECOLOGY AND ADAPTATION SO AMERICAN JOURNAL OF PHYSICAL ANTHROPOLOGY LA English DT Meeting Abstract C1 SUNY BINGHAMTON,BINGHAMTON,NY 13901. NR 0 TC 0 J9 AMER J PHYS ANTHROPOL BP 247 EP 247 PY 1981 VL 54 IS 2 GA LG312 UT ISI:A1981LG31200153 ER PT J AU Nystrom, M Folke, C Moberg, F TI Coral reef disturbance and resilience in a human-dominated environment SO TRENDS IN ECOLOGY & EVOLUTION LA English DT Review C1 Univ Stockholm, Dept Syst Ecol, S-10691 Stockholm, Sweden. RP Nystrom, M, Univ Stockholm, Dept Syst Ecol, S-10691 Stockholm, Sweden. AB Facing a human-dominated world, ecologists are now reconsidering the role of disturbance for coral reef ecosystem dynamics. Human activities alter the natural disturbance regimes of coral reefs by transforming pulse events into persistent disturbance or even chronic stress, by introducing new disturbance, or by suppressing or removing disturbance. Adding these alterations to natural disturbance regimes will probably result in unknown synergistic effects. Simultaneously. humans are altering the capacity of reefs to cope with disturbance (e.g. by habitat fragmentation and reduction of functional diversity), which further exacerbates the effects of altered disturbance regimes. A disturbance that previously triggered the renewal and development of reefs might, under such circumstances, become an obstacle to development. The implications of these changes for reef-associated human activities, such as fishing and tourism, can be substantial. 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AB For millennia, the climate in different parts of the Earth has been subject to cyclic changes of varying duration whose nature is not entirely clear. On the basis of the newest glaciological and oceanological data, global changes of temperature and gas composition of the atmosphere over the last climatic cycle are described and a strict correlation between them is demonstrated. The nature of changes of geographic zones and landscapes in the northern hemisphere during the Upper Pleistocene and Holocene is shown on the strength of palaeographic analysis. Proofs are given of climatic changes and glacierization in the twentieth century, and the progress and possible causes of the rise of the world ocean level are analysed. Using the well-known forecast of a global temperature rise in the twenty-first century, we consider possible patterns of change in natural conditions in the north, in temperate zones and in southern latitudes of the northern hemisphere. It is stressed that anticipated global warming will not necessarily lead to a global environmental crisis, but will signify a transition to new conditions calling for a profound adaptation of society. 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Univ Colorado, Cooperat Inst Res Environm Sci, Ctr Sci & Technol Policy Res, Boulder, CO USA. RP Moser, SC, Natl Ctr Atmospher Changes, ISSE, Boulder, CO USA. 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RP FOIN, TC, UNIV CALIF DAVIS,DIV ENVIRONM STUDIES,DAVIS,CA 95616. CR BOYD D, 1985, OCEANIA, V55, P27 BUCHBINDER G, 1977, MALNUTRITION BEHAVIO, P109 HALLPIKE CR, 1973, MAN, V8, P451 HICKERSON H, 1956, MAN CULTURE ANIMALS, P43 LOWMAN C, 1980, THESIS MACARTHUR M, 1974, OCEANIA, V45, P87 MANNER H, 1981, HUM ECOL, V9, P359 MAY RM, 1973, STABILITY MODEL ECOS MEGGIT MJ, 1977, BLOOD IS THEIR ARGUM MOORE OK, 1957, AM ANTHR, V59, P64 PEOPLES JG, 1982, CURR ANTHROPOL, V23, P291 PUGH AL, 1976, DYNAMO USERS MANUAL RAPPAPORT RA, 1967, PIGS ANCESTORS RITUA, V1, P1 RAPPAPORT RA, 1979, ECOLOGY MEANING RELI, P43 SALISBURY RF, 1975, ANTHROPOLOGICA, V17, P127 SAMUELS ML, 1982, HUMAN ECOLOGY, V10, P1 SHANTZIS SB, 1973, GLOBAL EQUILIBRIUM, P257 VAYDA AP, 1971, OCEANIA, V42, P1 WYNNEEDWARDS VC, 1962, ANIMAL DISPERSION RE NR 19 TC 5 J9 HUM ECOL BP 385 EP 412 PY 1984 VL 12 IS 4 GA APQ11 UT ISI:A1984APQ1100003 ER PT J AU Noss, RF TI Beyond Kyoto: Forest management in a time of rapid climate change SO CONSERVATION BIOLOGY LA English DT Review C1 Conservat Sci Inc, Corvallis, OR 97330 USA. RP Noss, RF, Conservat Sci Inc, 7310 NW Acorn Ridge, Corvallis, OR 97330 USA. AB Policies to reduce global warming by offering credits of carbon sequestration have neglected the effects of forest management on biodiversity. I review properties of forest ecosystems and management options for enhancing the resistance and resilience of forests to climate change. Although forests, as a class, have proved resilient to past changes in climate, today's fragmented and degraded forests are more vulnerable. Adaptation of species to climate change can occur through phenotypic plasticity, evolution, or migration to suitable sites, with the latter probably the most common response in the past. Among the land-use and management practices likely to maintain forest biodiversity and ecological functions during climate change are (1) representing forest types across environment gradients in reserves; (2) protecting climatic refugia at multiple scales; (3) protecting primary forests; (4) avoiding fragmentation and providing connectivity, especially parallel to climatic gradients: (5) providing buffer zones for adjustment of reserve boundaries; (6) practicing low-intensity forestry and preventing conversion of natural forests to plantations; (7) maintaining natural fire regimes; (8) maintaining diverse gene pools; and (9) identifying and protecting functional groups and keystone species. Good forest management in a time of rapidly changing climate differs little from good forest management under more static conditions, but there is increased emphasis on protecting climatic refugia and providing connectivity. 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ECOL MONOGR, V69, P47 WALKER BH, 1995, CONSERV BIOL, V9, P747 WALKER BH, 1992, CONSERV BIOL, V6, P18 WHITFORD WG, 1999, J ENVIRON MANAGE, V57, P21 WHITMORE TC, 1998, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V39, P429 WHITTAKER RH, 1960, ECOL MONOGR, V30, P279 WILLIAMS DW, 1995, J BIOGEOGR, V22, P665 WILLIS KJ, 2000, SCIENCE, V287, P1406 WILSON JB, 1992, J BIOGEOGR, V19, P183 WINNETT SM, 1998, CLIMATE RES, V11, P39 WUETHRICH B, 2000, SCIENCE, V287, P793 ZOBEL DB, 1976, ECOL MONOGR, V46, P135 NR 161 TC 17 J9 CONSERV BIOL BP 578 EP 590 PY 2001 PD JUN VL 15 IS 3 GA 441HY UT ISI:000169226000005 ER PT J AU Smith, JB Ragland, SE Pitts, GJ TI A process for evaluating anticipatory adaptation measures for climate change SO WATER AIR AND SOIL POLLUTION LA English DT Article RP Smith, JB, HAGLER BAILLY CONSULTING INC,PO DRAWER O,BOULDER,CO 80306. AB Many countries are preparing national climate change action plans that describe specific measures they are taking to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to the potential effects of climate change. Among the reasons for preparing such plans are that climate change is likely to occur, and many anticipatory measures that would be taken in response to climate change are ''no regret'' measures that will produce benefits even if climate does not change. Additionally, these plans can serve as communications required by the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change, We propose here an assessment process for anticipatory adaptation measures that will enable countries to identify and select measures to adapt to climate change. These measures anticipate potential climate changes and are flexible enough to meat objectives under a wide variety of future climate conditions. The process builds on assessments of vulnerability by focusing on adaptation measures for the most sensitive regions, or populations, within a country. potential anticipatory adaptation measures are identified, and two or three are chosen based on expert judgment and analysis regarding which measures would produce the greatest benefits and be easiest to implement. Analytic techniques are used to assess the benefits and costs of each of the measures and evaluate barriers to implementation. The measure that is most cost-effective and is easiest to implement is selected. We illustrate the application of the process by examining a hypothetical forest threatened by climate change. CR *AS DEV BANK, 1994, CLIM CHANG AS THEM O *IPCC, IN PRESS SCI TECHN A *IPCC, 1995, CLIM CHANG 1995 SCI *NAS, 1992, POL IMPL GREENH WARM *OTA, 1993, PREP UNC CLIM, V2 *UNEP WMO, UN FRAM CONV CLIM CH *WORLD WILDL FUND, 1992, CAN NAT SURV GLOB WA BENIOFF R, IN PRESS VULNERABILI CARTER TR, 1994, IPCC TECHNICAL GUIDE FANKHAUSER S, 1996, ADAPTATION CLIMATE C GOKLANY IM, 1995, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V30, P427 GRAMLICH EM, 1981, BENEFIT COST ANAL GO LILLIEHOLM RJ, 1993, PREPARING UNCERTAIN, V2 MARKHAM A, 1996, ADAPTATION CLIMATE C MELILLO JM, 1993, NATURE, V363, P234 MORSE LE, 1993, POTENTIAL EFFECTS CL SMITH A, 1994, MULTICRITERIA APPROA SMITH JB, IN PRESS ENV PROFESS SMITH JB, 1996, CLIMATE RES, V6, P193 SMITH TM, 1992, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V21, P367 TEGART WJ, 1990, CLIMATE CHANGE IPCC TITUS JG, 1990, APA J, V311 NR 22 TC 2 J9 WATER AIR SOIL POLLUT BP 229 EP 238 PY 1996 PD SEP VL 92 IS 1-2 GA VM538 UT ISI:A1996VM53800023 ER PT J AU Bolte, JP Hulse, DW Gregory, SV Smith, C TI Modeling biocomplexity - actors, landscapes and alternative futures SO ENVIRONMENTAL MODELLING & SOFTWARE LA English DT Article C1 Oregon State Univ, Dept Bioengn, Corvallis, OR 97331 USA. Oregon State Univ, Dept Landscape Architecture, Corvallis, OR 97331 USA. Oregon State Univ, Dept Fisheries & Wildlife, Corvallis, OR 97331 USA. Oregon State Univ, Dept Anthropol, Corvallis, OR 97331 USA. RP Bolte, JP, Oregon State Univ, Dept Bioengn, Corvallis, OR 97331 USA. AB Increasingly, models (and modelers) are being asked to address the interactions between human influences, ecological processes, and landscape dynamics that impact many diverse aspects of managing complex coupled human and natural systems. These systems may be profoundly influenced by human decisions at multiple spatial and temporal scales, and the limitations of traditional process-level ecosystems modeling approaches for representing the richness of factors shaping landscape dynamics in these coupled systems has resulted in the need for new analysis approaches. New tools in the areas of spatial data management and analysis, multicriteria decision-making, individual-based modeling, and complexity science have all begun to impact how we approach modeling these systems. The term "biocomplexity" has emerged as a descriptor of the rich patterns of interactions and behaviors in human and natural systems, and the challenges of analyzing biocomplex behavior is resulting in a convergence of approaches leading to new ways of understanding these systems. Important questions related to system vulnerability and resilience, adaptation, feedback processing, cycling, non-linearities and other complex behaviors are being addressed using models employing new representational approaches to analysis. The complexity inherent in these systems challenges the modeling community to provide tools that capture sufficiently the richness of human and ecosystem processes and interactions in ways that are computationally tractable and understandable. We examine one such tool, EvoLand, which uses an actor-based approach to conduct alternative futures analyses in the Willamette Basin, Oregon. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *NAS, 2001, ASS TMDL APPR WAT QU ARTHUR WB, 1997, EC EVOLVING COMPLEX BAK P, 1989, PHYS TODAY JAN BAKER JP, 2004, ECOL APPL, V14, P313 BELLA DA, 1997, J BUS ETHICS, V16, P977 CARPENTER SR, 1999, CONSERV ECOL, V3, P1 CARPENTER SR, 1997, CONSERV ECOL, V1, P1 CHATTOE E, 1998, J ARTIFICIAL SOC SOC, V1 COLWELL RA, 1998, BIOSCIENCE, V48, P786 DANIELS M, 1999, AG SIM APPL MOD TOOL EMERY FE, 1965, HUM RELAT, V18, P21 ETIENNE M, 2003, J ARTIFICIAL SOC SOC, V6 FERNANDEZ P, 2003, 0310055 SFI GUNDERSON LH, 2002, RESILIENCE BEHAV LAR HOLLAND JH, 1995, HIDDEN ORDER ADAPTIO HOLLING CS, 2001, ECOSYSTEMS, V4, P390 HULSE D, 2000, LANDSCAPE J, V19, P1 HULSE DW, 2004, ECOL APPL, V14, P325 KAUFFMAN SA, 1969, J THEOR BIOL, V22, P437 LEPPERHOFF N, 2002, J ARTIFICIAL SOC SOC, V5 LEVIN SA, 1998, ECOSYSTEMS, V1, P431 MANSON SM, 2001, GEOFORUM, V32, P405 MAXWELL T, 1995, INT J COMPUTER SIMUL, V5, P247 NOTH M, 2000, 20001201 U WASH DEP PARKER DC, 2003, ANN ASS AM GEOGRAPHE, V93 SANTELMANN M, 2001, APPL ECOLOGICAL PRIN, P226 SENGUPTA RR, 2003, INT J GEOGR INF SCI, V17, P157 SHEFFER M, 2002, PANARCHY UNDERSTANDI, P195 STEINITZ C, 2001, APPL ECOLOGICAL PRIN, P165 VANSICKLE J, 2004, ECOL APPL, V14, P368 VOINOV AA, 1999, J ECOSYSTEM MODELING, V14, P473 WALKER BH, 1981, J ECOL, V69, P473 NR 32 TC 0 J9 ENVIRON MODELL SOFTW BP 570 EP 579 PY 2007 PD MAY VL 22 IS 5 GA 133JO UT ISI:000244009400003 ER PT J AU Reenberg, A PaarupLaursen, B TI Determinants for land use strategies in a sahelian agro-ecosystem - Anthropological and ecological geographical aspects of natural resource management SO AGRICULTURAL SYSTEMS LA English DT Article C1 AARHUS UNIV,DEPT SOCIAL ANTHROPOL,DK-8370 HOJBJERG,DENMARK. RP Reenberg, A, UNIV COPENHAGEN,INST GEOG,OSTER VOLDGADE 10,DK-1350 COPENHAGEN K,DENMARK. AB The paper presents traditional concerns of anthropological and ecological geographical approaches to the analysis of agricultural systems, with a view to contributing to a multidisciplinary and holistic framework. Following a short introduction to how each discipline is able to contribute an insight into the complex processes determining natural resource management strategies, a case study from northern Burkina Faso is presented A few aspects concerning the land use and agricultural strategies have been selected in order to illustrate how the two approaches can fruitfully supplement each other and lead to a more profound understanding of forces driving management strategies in the agricultural system. The priorities given to different soil types, determinants for field sizes and the division of inputs between various agricultural activities are analysed in the examples. The findings underline the fact that within-household variations in resource management strategies can only be fully understood if the analysis is based on broad insight into different objectives and rationalities for land use decisions. Copyright (C) 1996 Published by Elsevier Science Ltd CR BARRY S, 1993, NO CONDITION IS PERM BARRY S, 1994, ACCESS CONTROL MANAG, P23 BARTH F, 1956, AM ANTHROPOL, V58, P1079 BENDIX R, 1967, COMP STUDIES SOC HIS, V9, P292 BOLWEIG S, 1995, 2 SEREIN BRUSH SB, 1987, COMP FARMING SYSTEMS, P11 CHAMBERS R, 1993, CHALLENGING PROFESSI CLAUDE J, 1991, ESPACE SAHELIEN MARE CROLL E, 1992, BUSH BASE FOREST FAR DUCKHAM AN, 1970, FARMING SYSTEMS WORL ELLEN R, 1978, MAN, V13, P290 ELLEN R, 1982, ENV SUBSISTENCE SYST ELLEN R, 1993, ENV VIEW ANTHR, P126 EVANSPRITCHARD EE, 1940, NUER RELIGION FUSSEL LK, 1992, FIELD CROP ECOSYSTEM, P485 GEERTZ C, 1963, AGR INVOLUTION PROCE GREENLAND DJ, 1994, SOIL WATER NUTR MANA GROTEN SME, 1991, SATELLITENMONITORING GUILLAUD D, 1993, OMBRE MIL SYSTEME AG HAGGETT P, 1990, GEOGRAPHERS ART HARRIS M, 1977, CANNIBALS KINGS ORIG HARTSBROEKHUIS EJA, 1993, SUBSISTENCE SURVIVAL HASTRUP K, 1983, SAMHALLE EKOSYSTEM T, P40 IKENGAMETUH E, 1991, B AFRIC RELIG CULTUR, V3, P1 KAHN JS, 1985, ANNU REV ANTHROPOL, V14, P49 KRINGS TF, 1980, KULTURGEOGRAPHISCHER LATOUR B, 1993, WE HAVE NEVER BEEN M LATOUR B, 1994, EFFET WHITEHEAD, P197 MANNION AM, 1995, AGR ENV CHANGE MCNETTING R, 1993, SMALL HOLDERS HOUSEH MILLEVILLE P, 1980, UNPUB ETUDE SYSTEME PATTON MQ, 1990, QUALITATIVE EVALUATI PETERSEN P, 1995, ASIAN PERCEPTIONS NA RAPPAPORT RA, 1967, PIGS ANCESTORS RITUA, V1, P1 RAPPAPORT RA, 1971, SCI AM SEP RASMUSSEN K, 1980, GEOGRAFISK TIDSSKRIF, V80, P81 RASMUSSEN K, 1992, GEOGRAFISK TIDSSKRIF, V92, P86 REENBERG A, 1992, SUSTAINABLE DEV SAHE, P53 REENBERG A, 1994, GEOGRAFISK TIDSSKRIF, V94, P58 REENBERG A, 1994, J ARID ENVIRON, V27, P179 REENBERG A, 1995, 1 SEREIN, P161 REENBERG A, 1995, GEOJOURNAL, V37, P489 REENBERG A, 1995, Q J INT AGR, V35, P63 REISMAN P, 1977, FREEDOM FULANI SOCIA RICHARDS P, 1985, INDIGENOUS AGR REVOL RUTHENBERG H, 1976, FARMING SYSTEMS TROP SAHLINS M, 1976, USE ABUSE BIOL SCHOLES MC, 1994, BIOL MANAGEMENT TROP, P1 SNEECH S, 1994, SAHEL POPULATION INT STEWARD JH, 1955, THEORY CULTURE CHANG STROOSUIJDER I, 1994, SAHEL POPULATION INT, P3 TOLEDO VM, 1990, AGROECOLOGY SMALL FA, P53 VANDENBREEMER JPM, 1992, BUSH BASE FOREST FAR, P97 VANDUIVENBOODEN N, 1995, LAND USE SYSTEMS ANA WILSON J, 1988, INTRO SYSTEMS THINKI YOUNG MD, 1993, WORLDS SAVANNAS EC D NR 56 TC 6 J9 AGR SYST BP 209 EP 229 PY 1997 PD FEB-MAR VL 53 IS 2-3 GA WE236 UT ISI:A1997WE23600006 ER PT J AU Sims, REH TI Renewable energy: a response to climate change SO SOLAR ENERGY LA English DT Article C1 Massey Univ, Coll Sci, Energy Res Ctr, Palmerston North, New Zealand. RP Sims, REH, Massey Univ, Coll Sci, Energy Res Ctr, Private Bag 11222, Palmerston North, New Zealand. AB "We recognize the importance of renewable energy for sustainable development, diversification of energy supply, and preservation of the environment. We will ensure that renewable energy sources are adequately considered in our national plans and encourage others to do so as well. We encourage continuing research and investment in renewable energy technology, throughout the world". Communique from the G8 Leaders' Summit, Genoa, July 2001. The Third Assessment Report of the IPCC confirmed that the Earth's climate is changing as a result of human activities, particularly from energy use, and that further change is inevitable. Natural ecosystems are already adapting to change, some are under threat, and it is evident that human health and habitats will be affected world-wide. Such climate changes could also affect the present supplies of renewable energy sources and the performance and reliability of the conversion technologies. This paper concentrates on the reduction of carbon dioxide emissions and the role that the global renewable energy industry might play in this regard. (The five other major greenhouse gases are given less emphasis here.) The paper compares the costs of renewable energy systems with fossil fuel-derived energy services and considers how placing a value on carbon emissions will help provide convergence. The move towards a de-carbonised world, driven partly by climate change science and partly by the business opportunities it offers, will need to occur sooner rather than later if an acceptable stabilisation level of atmospheric carbon dioxide is to be achieved. Government policy decisions made now will determine the sort of future world we wish our children to inherit. The renewable energy era has begun. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *IEA, 2000, TECHN PATHS GLOB EL *IEA, 2001, WORLD EN OUTL 2001 I *IPCC, 2001, CLIM CHANG 2001 *SHELL CTR, 1997, EV WORLDS EN SYST METZ B, 2001, MITIGATION UN INTERG SIMS REH, 2003, ENERG POLICY, V31, P1315 NR 6 TC 1 J9 SOLAR ENERG BP 9 EP 17 PY 2004 VL 76 IS 1-3 GA 766TL UT ISI:000188391600003 ER PT J AU Alexander, JC TI Cultural pragmatics: Social performance between ritual and strategy SO SOCIOLOGICAL THEORY LA English DT Review C1 Yale Univ, Dept Sociol, New Haven, CT 06520 USA. RP Alexander, JC, Yale Univ, Dept Sociol, POB 208265, New Haven, CT 06520 USA. AB Front its very beginnings, the social study of culture has been polarized between structuralist theories that treat meaning as a text and investigate the patterning that provides relative autonomy and pragmatist theories that treat meaning as emerging from the contingencies of individual and collective action-so-called practices-and that analyze cultural patterns as reflections of power and material interest. In this article, I present a theory of cultural pragmatics that transcends this division, bringing meaning structures, contingency, power, and materiality together in a new way. My argument is that the materiality of practices should be replaced by the more multidimensional concept Of performances. Drawing on the new field of performance studies, cultural pragmatics demonstrates how social performances, whether individual or collective, can be analogized systematically to theatrical ones. After defining the elements of social performance, I suggest that these elements have become "de-fased" as societies have become more complex. Performances are successful only insofar as they can "re-fuse" these increasingly disentangled elements. In a fused performance, audiences identify with actors, and cultural effective mise-en-scene. Performances fail when this scripts achieve verisimilitude through rethinking process is incomplete: the elements of performance remain, apart, and social action seems inauthentic and artificial, failing to persuade. Refusion, by contrast, allows actors to communicate the meanings of their actions successfully and thus to pursue their interests effectively. 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A basis for action SO NATURAL HAZARDS LA English DT Article C1 Univ Western Ontario, Inst Catastroph Loss Reduct, London, ON N6H 5H5, Canada. RP McBean, G, Univ Western Ontario, Inst Catastroph Loss Reduct, London, ON N6H 5H5, Canada. AB The economic and social costs of extreme weather-related events have been increasing around the globe. There is some debate over how much of this past increase has been due to social factors and how much due to changes in frequency or characteristics of extreme events. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2001a) has affirmed that humans are having a role in changing the climate and will have a larger role in the future. Although the changes in extreme events are by their nature both difficult to detect and difficult to model, the consensus is that there will be changes in the future. Through a risk-based decision-making analysis, it is concluded that society should make the additional investments to reduce vulnerability to this increased risk. CR 2001, SCIENCE, V294, P5551 *MUN RE, 2000, TOP ANN REV NAT DIS *MUN RE, 2002, TOP ANN REV NAT CAT *NAT AC SCI, 2000, REC OBS GLOB TEMP CH BERZ G, 2001, NAT HAZARDS, V23, P443 BRUCE JP, 2001, CANADIAN J POLICY RE, V2, P11 CHANGNON SA, 1999, J CLIMATE, V13, P658 CHANGNON SA, 2000, B AM METEOROL SOC, V81, P437 CHANGNON SA, 2001, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V50, P489 ETKIN D, 2001, IN PRESS I CAT LOSS FOLLAND CK, 1999, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V42, P31 FOLLAND CK, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, P99 HOUGHTON JT, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995 HOUGHTON JT, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 JONES PD, 1998, HOLOCENE, V8, P467 KARL TR, 1998, B AM METEOROL SOC, V79, P231 KHARIN VV, 2000, J CLIMATE, V13, P3760 KOVACS PJE, 2001, CANADIAN J POLICY RE, V2, P57 KUNKEL KE, 1999, B AM METEOROL SOC, V80, P1077 LANDSEA CW, 1999, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V42, P89 LEISS W, 2001, UNDERSTANDING RISK C LEISS W, 2002, WHY CANADA SHOULD RA MANN ME, 1998, NATURE, V392, P779 MANN ME, 1999, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V26, P759 MCBEAN GA, 2001, CAN J POLICY RES, V2, P16 MCBEAN GA, 2002, WATER INT, V7, P70 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 MEEHL GA, 2000, B AM METEOROL SOC, V81, P413 MILETI DS, 1999, DISASTERS DESIGN REA NICHOLLS N, 1999, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V42, P23 NICHOLLS N, 2001, NAT HAZARDS, V23, P137 NUTTER FW, 1999, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V42, P45 TRENBERTH KE, 1999, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V42, P9 WHITE R, 1997, NAT HAZARDS, V16, P135 ZHAN XC, 2000, SPECTROSC SPECT ANAL, V20, P395 ZWIERS FW, 1998, J CLIMATE, V11, P2200 ZWIERS FW, 2002, C PRES DEAL DIS IMP ZWIERS FW, 2002, NATURE, V416, P690 NR 38 TC 0 J9 NATURAL HAZARDS BP 177 EP 190 PY 2004 PD JAN VL 31 IS 1 GA 804MV UT ISI:000220303700010 ER PT J AU Kundzewicz, ZW Schellnhuber, HJ Svirejeva-Hopkins, A TI From Kyoto via Moscow to nowhere? SO CLIMATE POLICY LA English DT Editorial Material C1 Polish Acad Sci, Res Ctr Agr & Forest Environm, Poznan, Poland. Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res, Potsdam, Germany. Tyndall Ctr Climate Change Res, Norwich, Norfolk, England. RP Kundzewicz, ZW, Polish Acad Sci, Res Ctr Agr & Forest Environm, Poznan, Poland. AB Since the World Climate Change Conference held in the autumn of 2003 in Moscow, Russian Federation, the fate of international climate policy architecture designed around the Kyoto Protocol hangs in the balance. After the withdrawal of the USA from the Kyoto Protocol, the condition of its ratification cannot be met without the Russian Federation. There has been a considerable uncertainty as to Russia's intentions regarding ratification of Kyoto. In this contribution, an attempt is made to identify the Russian motives and concerns, and explain their attitudes regarding the Kyoto Protocol. Pressures against and for ratification are discussed. Finally, a few comments are made about the future of the efforts to solve the global environmental problem of protecting the Earth's climate. CR GRUBB M, 2004, ILLARIONOV FEAR KYOT HOUGHTON JT, 2001, CONTRIBUTION WORKING KARAS J, 2004, RUSSIA KYOTO PROTOCO KONDRATYEV K, 2003, POLITYKA, V47 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 MULLER B, 2004, KYOTO PROTOCOL RUSSI PATTERSON T, 2003, MOSCOW TIMES 1002, P10 RAHMSTORF S, 2004, EOS T AGU, V85, P38 WATSON RT, 2001, CONTRIBUTION WORKING WATSON RT, 2003, SCIENCE, V302, P1925 NR 10 TC 0 J9 CLIM POLICY BP 81 EP 90 PY 2004 VL 4 IS 1 GA 892TJ UT ISI:000226672600008 ER PT J AU Olesen, JE Bindi, M TI Consequences of climate change for European agricultural productivity, land use and policy SO EUROPEAN JOURNAL OF AGRONOMY LA English DT Review C1 Danish Inst Agr Sci, Dept Crop Physiol & Soil Sci, DK-8830 Tjele, Denmark. Univ Florence, Dept Agron & Land Management, I-50144 Florence, Italy. RP Olesen, JE, Danish Inst Agr Sci, Dept Crop Physiol & Soil Sci, POB 50, DK-8830 Tjele, Denmark. AB This paper reviews the knowledge on effects of climate change on agricultural productivity in Europe and the consequences for policy and research. Warming is expected to lead to a northward expansion of suitable cropping areas and a reduction of the growing period of determinate crops (e.g. cereals), but an increase for indeterminate crops (e.g. root crops). Increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations will directly enhance plant productivity and also increase resource use efficiencies. In northern areas climate change may produce positive effects on agriculture through introduction of new crop species and varieties, higher crop production and expansion of suitable areas for crop cultivation. Disadvantages may be an increase in the need for plant protection, the risk of nutrient leaching and the turnover of soil organic matter. In southern areas the disadvantages will predominate. The possible increase in water shortage and extreme weather events may cause lower harvestable yields, higher yield variability and a reduction in suitable areas for traditional crops. These effects may reinforce the current trends of intensification of agriculture in northern and western Europe and extensification in the Mediterranean and southeastern parts of Europe. Policy will have to support the adaptation of European agriculture to climate change by encouraging the flexibility of land use, crop production, farming systems etc. In doing so, it is necessary to consider the multifunctional role of agriculture, and to strike a variable balance between economic, environmental and social functions in different European regions. Policy will also need to be concerned with agricultural strategies to mitigate climate change through a reduction in emissions of methane and nitrous oxide, an increase in carbon sequestration in agricultural soils and the growing of energy crops to substitute fossil energy use. The policies to support adaptation and mitigation to climate change will need to be linked closely to the development of agri-environmental schemes in the European Union Common Agricultural Policy. Research will have further to deal with the effect on secondary factors of agricultural production, on the quality of crop and animal production, of changes in frequency of isolated and extreme weather events on agricultural production, and the interaction with the surrounding natural ecosystems. There is also a need to study combined effects of adaptation and mitigation strategies, and include assessments of the consequences on current efforts in agricultural policy to develop a sustainable agriculture that also preserves environmental and social values in the rural society. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. 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1997, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V88, P199 TAIT J, 2001, OUTLOOK AGR, V30, P91 THORNLEY JHM, 1997, ANN BOT-LONDON, V80, P205 TOPP CFE, 1996, AGR SYST, V52, P213 TOPP CFE, 1996, AGR SYST, V52, P243 TUBIELLO FN, 2000, EUR J AGRON, V13, P179 URI ND, 1999, ENVIRON GEOL, V40, P41 VANLANEN HAJ, 1992, AGR SYST, V39, P307 VANOIJEN M, 1999, EUR J AGRON, V10, P249 VONTIEDEMANN A, 1996, NACHRICHTENBL DTSCH, V48, P73 VOROSMARTY CJ, 2000, SCIENCE, V289, P284 WHEELER TR, 1996, ASPECTS APPL BIOL, V45, P49 WOLF J, 1995, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V29, P299 WOLF J, 2000, CLIMATE CHANGE CLIMA, P103 WURR DCE, 1998, J AGR SCI 2, V131, P125 YEO A, 1999, SCI HORTIC-AMSTERDAM, V78, P159 ZANETTI S, 1996, PLANT PHYSIOL, V112, P575 ZISKA LH, 1997, PHOTOSYNTH RES, V54, P199 NR 134 TC 5 J9 EUR J AGRON BP 239 EP 262 PY 2002 PD JUN VL 16 IS 4 GA 562PM UT ISI:000176208200001 ER PT J AU Olesen, JE TI Reconciling adaptation and mitigation to climate change in agriculture SO JOURNAL DE PHYSIQUE IV LA English DT Article C1 Danish Inst Agr Sci, Res Ctr Foulum, DK-8830 Tjele, Denmark. RP Olesen, JE, Danish Inst Agr Sci, Res Ctr Foulum, DK-8830 Tjele, Denmark. AB An effective adaptation to the changing climate at farm, sector and policy level is a prerequisite for reducing negative impacts and for obtaining possible benefits. These adaptations include land use and land management, as well as changes in inputs of water, nutrients and pesticides. Some of the most wide ranging adaptations involve changes in water management and water conservation, which involves issues such as changing irrigation, adoption of drought tolerant crops and water saving cropping methods (e.g. mulching and minimum tillage). Many of these adaptation options have substantial effects on greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture. However, so far few studies have attempted to link the issue of adaptation and mitigation in agriculture. This is primarily because the issues have so far been dealt with by different research communities and within different policy contexts. As both issues are becoming increasingly relevant from a policy perspective, these issues will have to be reconciled. Dealing with these issues requires a highly interdisciplinary approach. 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American Univ, Dept Govt, St Marys City, MD 20686 USA. RP Boykoff, MT, Univ Calif Santa Cruz, Dept Environm Studies, Interdisciplinary Sci Bldg,1156 High St, Santa Cruz, CA 95064 USA. AB This paper demonstrates that US prestige-press coverage of global warming from 1988 to 2002 has contributed to a significant divergence of popular discourse from scientific discourse. This failed discursive translation results from an accumulation of tactical media responses and practices guided by widely accepted journalistic norms. Through content analysis of US prestige press-meaning the New York Times, the Washington Post, the Los Angeles Times, and the Wall Street Journal-this paper focuses on the norm of balanced reporting, and shows that the prestige press's adherence to balance actually leads to biased coverage of both anthropogenic contributions to global warming and resultant action. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 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Kings College London, Dept Geog, London WC2R 2LS, England. RP Grasso, M, Univ Studi Milano Bicocca, Dipartimento Sociol & Ric Sociale, Edif U7,Via Bicocca Arcimboldi 8, I-20126 Milan, Italy. AB The article spells out four domains of international distributive justice and the consequent criteria of equity, the purpose being to identify a pluralistic normative ethical framework for climate mitigation and adaptation strategies. Justice and equity should play a major role in favouring collective action against climate change, because the more the various dimensions of such action are just, the more any international climate initiative is feasible in principle. As far as mitigation is concerned, the definition of a just initial allocation of endowments focuses on the criterion of differentiated equality, taking account of undeserved inequalities as suggested by Rawls' theory of justice as fairness. With regard to the subsequent exchange of endowments, the Pareto principle, supplemented by the envy-freeness one, is a viable option. Possibly a sound reference for the just financing of adaptation activities is the criterion of differentiated historical responsibility, backed by Rawls' theory of justice as fairness. As regards the allocation of adaptation resources, the criterion of lack of human security, as substantiated in Sen's capability approach, seems promising. 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AB Prehistoric Anasazi Pueblo Indians relied on a diverse set of agricultural strategies, each uniquely suited to specific micro-environments, in their attempts to mitigate subsistence risk. One variant strategy used during the fourteenth and fifteenth centuries A.D. was pebble-mulch gardening. The Rio Grande Anasazi of northern New Mexico occasionally mulched some of their garden plots with pebbles in order to increase soil moisture, reduce erosion, moderate soil temperature, and increase crop yields. This labor intensive technique was primarily employed as a drought-evasive measure. And while pebble mulching is an effective agricultural adaptation to the constraints of a dryland environment, construction was limited to sites with natural gravel deposits and it never replaced more traditional food stress-coping mechanisms. In spite of their potential, pebble-mulch gardens were used for only a short period of time, never contributed much to the total food yield of pueblos, and remained always a peripheral innovation outside of the Anasazi cultural core. 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Inst Nacl Ecol, Unidad Cooperac & Convenios Int, Mexico City 01040, DF, Mexico. RP Magana, V, Univ Nacl Autonoma Mexico, Ctr Ciencias Atmosfera, Ciudad Univ,Circuito Exterior, Mexico City 04510, DF, Mexico. AB Current climate and climate change scenarios are the basis for climate change vulnerability and adaptation studies. Comparison between the current situation and the one that would prevail under climate change conditions allows for the identification of vulnerable regions and the quantification of vulnerability. This may be done by evaluating the land area adversely affected by climate change (e.g. with reduction in agricultural yields or decrease in the level of water reservoirs). Specific regionalization criteria and methods based on physical considerations should be applied in the development of regional climate scenarios. This is the principle followed in studies using analogue scenarios. A methodology based on the direct interpolation of general circulation model (GCM) outputs to the study region under 1xCO(2) and 2xCO(2) conditions may be used as a first approach for the development of climate change scenarios. That methodology was applied in this study in order to be consistent with the assessments performed by more than 50 countries involved in the U.S. Country Studies Program and to allow for the comparison and integration of the results from several countries. However, an alternative methodology based on multiple regression was also applied by the Scenario task group of the Mexico Country Study. This methodology is considered to be more appropriate for regionalization purposes. CR ADEM J, 1982, GEOFIS INT, V21, P229 CONDE C, 1994, ESCENARIOS BASICOS R, P39 CONDE C, 1995, ESCENARIOS BASICOS R, P101 MAGANA V, 1994, STRATEGY DETERMINE R, P45 MAGANA V, 1995, ESCENARIOS FISICOS C, P93 NR 5 TC 3 J9 CLIMATE RES BP 107 EP 114 PY 1997 PD DEC 29 VL 9 IS 1-2 GA ZD200 UT ISI:000072661400017 ER PT J AU Bouchard, M TI The complex environmental challenge of the 21st century in Canada: Identification and understanding of the response of the environments facing global climatic changes SO CANADIAN GEOGRAPHER-GEOGRAPHE CANADIEN LA French DT Article C1 Univ Quebec, Dept Geog, Montreal, PQ H3C 3P8, Canada. RP Bouchard, M, Univ Quebec, Dept Geog, Montreal, PQ H3C 3P8, Canada. AB Environmental changes due to global climatic changes will be a major issue for Canada during the 21st century. The effects of new climactic conditions are still difficult to assess. Global Circulation Models (GCM) simulate the effects of increased greenhouse gases on climate, but will need to be supplemented by Regional Climate Models (RCM) since their scale is not quite appropriate. Field controls such as instrumental climate records and glacier mass balance studies help refine model predictions. On a countrywide scale CCM's predict increased temperatures, but these are quite variable on a regional scale. Volume and distribution of wafer will be modified and increased aridity could be critical in some Prairie areas. Extreme events, which are not taken into account by GCMs, could be more frequent, with serious negative effects. Biomes will shift northward and the forest industry will have to adapt its practices quickly. These changes will also affect carbon cycles, due to increased decoy of forest biomass and also drying out of bogs. Warming trends will be even more accute in northern areas, and will provoke permafrost degradation, development of thermokarsts and soil instability. A sea-level rise is anticipated, which will make the coasts of Prince Edward Island, New Brunswick and Nova Scotia vulnerable to submersion risks. Agriculture will have to adapt to an increased length of growing season, but also to dry spells, much more accute during summer time. The importance of climate change and its impacts on environment are still not well known, which hinders adaptive measures, but some economic sectors cannot really wait for an absolute certainty and must react now, which is the case of the forestry industry. Finally, social issues cannot be ignored. What will be the reaction of the population in the case where government promotes adaptation measures? 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RP Redman, CL, Arizona State Univ, Tempe, AZ 85287 USA. AB Resilience theory is an expanding body of ideas that attempts to provide explanations for the source and role of change in adaptive systems, particularly the kinds of change that are transforming. Scholars from various disciplines have contributed to the current state of this formulation. This article proposes that resilience theory would benefit from an increasing collaboration with archaeologists, who would provide a long-term perspective on adaptive cycles. Although archaeologists and anthropologists have written provocatively about studying the resilience of past and present societies, such an approach has not become common in these disciplines. We suggest, however, that a resilience framework offers a potential mechanism for reinvigorating the conceptual base of archaeological and anthropological disciplines. To make this case, we (1) highlight three features of resilience theory, including cross-scale interactions, information flow, and phases of the adaptive cycle; (2) examine the extent to which purely natural or social science analyses would give complementary or contradictory conclusions; and (3) discuss the implications of using a long-term integrative perspective for understanding linked social and ecological systems. 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RP Nicholls, RJ, Middlesex Univ, Flood Hazard Res Ctr, Enfield EN3 4SF, Middx, England. AB Analysis of the response to climate change and sea-level rise requires a link from climate change science to the resulting impacts and their policy implications. This paper explores the impacts of sea-level rise, particularly increased coastal flooding due to storm surges. In particular, it asks the simple question "how,much will projected global sea-level rise exacerbate coastal flood problems, if ignored?" This is an important question to the intergovernmental process considering climate change. Further many countries presently ignore sea-level rise in long-term coastal planning, even though global sea levels are presently slowly rising. Using the model of Nicholls et al. [Global Environmental Change 9 (1999) S69], the analysis. considers the flood impacts of sea-level rise on an "IS92a world" based on a consistent set of scenarios of global-mean sea-level rise, subsidence (where appropriate), coastal population change (usually increase), and flood defence standards (derived from GDP/capita). Two of the protection scenarios consider the possible upgrade of flood defences, but no allowance for global-mean sea-level rise is allowed to ensure consistency with the question being investigated. This model has been validated against national- and regional-scale assessments indicating that the relative results are reasonable, and the absolute results are of the right order of magnitude. The model estimates that 10 million people experienced flooding annually in 1990. It also predicts that the incidence of flooding will change without sea-level rise due to changes to the other three factors. Taking the full range of scenarios considered by 2100 the number of people flooded could be from 0.4 to 39 million/year. All the sea-level rise scenarios would cause an increase in flooding during the 21st century if measures to adapt to sea-level rise are not taken. However, there are significant uncertainties and the number of people who are estimated to experience flooding in 2100 is 16-388 million for the mid (55-cm) global-mean sea-level rise scenarios, and up to 510 million people/year for the high (96-cm) scenario. These results suggest that sea-level rise could be a significant problem if it is ignored, and hence it needs to be considered within the policy process considering climate change in terms of mitigation (reducing greenhouse gas emissions) and adaptation (improved coastal management and planning) needs. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *COMM SECR, 1989, EXP GROUP CLIM CHANG *EN MOD FOR, 1995, 141 EN MOD FOR *IPCC CZMS, 1990, STRAT AD SEA LEV RIS *IPCC CZMS, 1992, GLOB CLIM CHANG RIS *WCC93, 1994, PREP M COAST CHALL 2 ARNELL NW, 2002, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V53, P413 BAARSE G, 1995, CZM CTR PUBLICATION, V3 BARTH MC, 1984, GREENHOUSE EFFECT SE BIJLSMA L, 1996, IMPACTS ADAPTATIONS, P289 BOS E, 1994, WORLD POPULATION PRO BROADUS J, 1986, EFFECTS CHANGES STRA, V4, P165 CARRETERO JC, 1998, B AM METEOROL SOC, V79, P741 CHURCH JA, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, P639 CICINSAIN B, 1997, INT WORKSH PLANN CLI GAFFIN SR, 2001, P SURVAS OV WORKSH F, P39 HOOZEMANS FMJ, 1992, P RIS CHALL SEA MARG, P275 HOOZEMANS FMJ, 1993, GLOBAL VULNERABILITY HOUGHTON JT, 1996, CLIAMTE CHANGE 1995 HOUGHTON JT, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 HULME M, 1999, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHA S, V9, S3 HUQ S, 1995, J COASTAL RES, P44 KLEIN RJT, 1999, AMBIO, V28, P182 KLEIN RJT, 2000, IPCC SPECIAL REPORT, P349 KLEIN RJT, 2001, J COASTAL RES, V17, P531 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 MIMURA N, 2000, GLOBAL CHANGE ASIA P, P21 NAKICENOVIC N, 2000, SPECIAL REPORT EMISS NICHOLLS RJ, 1995, GEOJOURNAL, V37, P369 NICHOLLS RJ, 1995, P WORLD COAST 1993 M, P181 NICHOLLS RJ, 1998, CLIMATE RES, V11, P5 NICHOLLS RJ, 1999, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHA S, V9, PS69 NICHOLLS RJ, 2000, ASSESSMENT POTENTIAL, P243 NICHOLLS RJ, 2000, FLOODS, V2, P148 NICHOLLS RJ, 2002, EOS T AM GEOPHYS UN, V83, P301 NICHOLLS RJ, 2002, EOS T AM GEOPHYS UN, V83, P305 NICHOLLS RJ, 2002, GLOBAL ENV CHANGE IS, V17, P83 PARRY ML, 1998, NATURE, V395, P741 PARRY ML, 1999, NEW ASSESSMENT GLOBA, V9, S1 PARRY ML, 2001, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V11, P1 PELTIER WR, 2000, SEA LEVEL RISE HIST, P65 SCHNEIDER SH, 1980, ANNU REV ENERG ENV, V5, P107 SHENNAN I, 1989, J QUATERNARY SCI, V4, P77 SMIT B, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, P877 WARRICK RA, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, P359 WARRICK RA, 2000, FLOODS, V2 WIGLEY TML, 1999, SCI CLIMATE CHANGE G ZHANG KQ, 2000, J CLIMATE, V13, P1748 NR 47 TC 2 J9 PHYS CHEM EARTH BP 1455 EP 1466 PY 2002 VL 27 IS 32-34 GA 631JR UT ISI:000180164900011 ER PT J AU Beg, N Morlot, JC Davidson, O Afrane-Okesse, Y Tyani, L Denton, F Sokona, Y Thomas, JP La Rovere, EL Parikh, JK Parikh, K Rahman, AA TI Linkages between climate change and sustainable development SO CLIMATE POLICY LA English DT Review C1 OECD, Paris, France. EDRC, Cape Town, South Africa. ENDA TM, Dakar, Senegal. UFRJ, COPPE, PPE, LIMA, Rio De Janeiro, Brazil. Indira Gandhi Inst Dev Res, New Delhi, India. BCAS, Dhaka, Bangladesh. RP Beg, N, World Bank, Washington, DC 20433 USA. AB Climate change does not yet feature prominently within the environmental or economic policy agendas of developing countries. Yet evidence shows that some of the most adverse effects of climate change will be in developing countries, where populations are most vulnerable and least likely to easily adapt to climate change, and that climate change will affect the potential for development in these countries. Some synergies already exist between climate change policies and the sustainable development agenda in developing countries, such as energy efficiency, renewable energy, transport and sustainable land-use policies. Despite limited attention from policy-makers to date, climate change policies could have significant ancillary benefits for the local environment. The reverse is also true as local and national policies to address congestion, air quality, access to energy services and energy diversity may also limit GHG emissions. Nevertheless there could be significant trade-offs associated with deeper levels of mitigation in some countries, for example where developing countries are dependent on indigenous coal and may be required to switch to cleaner yet more expensive fuels to limit emissions. The distributional impacts of such policies are an important determinant of their feasibility and need to be considered up-front. It follows that future agreements on mitigation and adaptation under the convention will need to recognise the diverse situations of developing countries with respect to their level of economic development, their vulnerability to climate change and their ability to adapt or mitigate. Recognition of how climate change is likely to influence other development priorities may be a first Step toward building cost-effective strategies and integrated, institutional capacity in developing countries to respond to climate change. Opportunities may also exist in developing countries to use regional economic organisations to assist in the design of integrated responses and to exploit synergies between climate change and other policies such as those designed to combat desertification and preserve biodiversity. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *ADB, 1994, CLIM CHANG AS SR LAN *CHAMB MIN S AFR, 1999, STAT TABL 1999 *IEA, 2001, KEY WROLD EN STAT IE *IPCC, 1996, CLIM CHANG 1995 *IPCC, 1996, CONTR WORK GROUP 1 2 *IPCC, 2000, SPEC REP IPCC WORK G *IPCC, 2001, IPCC 3 ASS REP S YNT *IPCC, 2001, REP WORK GROUP 2 INT *MCT, 1997, PROP EL PROT UNFCCC *OECD, 2000, CLIM I RFF WRI *OECD, 2001, OECD ENV OUTL *OECD, 2001, SUST DEV CRIT ISS *UN, 2000, BETT WORLD ALL PROGR ALCAMO J, 1998, GLOBAL CHANGE SCENAR BANUR TK, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995 BAUMERT K, 1999, WHAT MIGHT DEV COUNT BERK MM, 2001, CONTROLLING CLIMATE DAVIDSON O, 2002, CLIMATE CHANGE SUSTA DAVIS D, 2000, P IPCC COSP WORKSH R DENTON F, 2000, CLIMATE CHANGE SUSTA DESSUS O, 1999, 156 OECD DEV CTR EBERHARD A, 1995, POVERTY POWER ENERGY KIKER GA, 2000, SYNTHESIS REPORT VUL KUMAR KSK, 1997, WORKSH MEAS IMP CLIM KUMAR KSK, 1998, 402 WORLD BANK LAROVERE EL, 2002, CLIMATE CHANGE SUSTA MUNASINGHE M, 2000, CLIMATE CHANGE ITS I MUNASINGHE M, 2001, INT J GLOBAL ENV ISS, V5, P1 OCONNOR D, 2000, P IPCC COSPONSORED W PARIKH J, 2000, J GLOBAL ENV ENG PARIKH J, 2002, CLIMATE CHANGE INDIA PHILIBERT C, CLIMATE POLICY, V1 RAHMAN AA, CLIMATE CHANGE SUSTA RAYNER S, 2000, P IPCC EXP M COL CLI RUFFINI A, 2000, AFR ENERGY, V2, P2 SHUKLA PR, 1998, IMPLICATIOSN EMISSIO TOL RSJ, 2000, MUCH DAMAGE WILL CLI TOTH FL, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, CH10 WAMUKONYA N, 1999, CONVENTION CLIMATE C WATSON R, 2000, P PRES R WATS IPCC 6 WINKLER H, 2001, WHAT COULD POTENTIAL YAMIN F, 1999, REV EUROPEAN COMMUNI, V8 YOHE GW, 2000, P IPCC EXP M CLIM CH NR 43 TC 5 J9 CLIM POLICY BP 129 EP 144 PY 2002 PD SEP VL 2 IS 2-3 GA 626TB UT ISI:000179888400002 ER PT J AU Smardon, RC Faust, BB TI Introduction: international policy in the biosphere reserves of Mexico's Yucatan peninsula SO LANDSCAPE AND URBAN PLANNING LA English DT Editorial Material C1 SUNY Coll Environm Sci & Forestry, Fac Environm Studies, Randolph G Pack Environm Inst, Syracuse, NY 13210 USA. Ctr Invest & Estud Avanzados, Dept Ecol Humana, Merida, Yucatan, Mexico. RP Smardon, RC, SUNY Coll Environm Sci & Forestry, Fac Environm Studies, Randolph G Pack Environm Inst, Syracuse, NY 13210 USA. AB This introduction describes the evolution of biosphere reserve policy as an international effort to protect areas representative of each type of natural ecosystem, with zoning to integrate neighboring human communities. The integration of local communities in conservation was originally proposed by a Mexican conservationist based on recognition by some of his country's political leaders of national dependency on "ecosystem services": forests, watersheds, soils, and rainfall cycles [de Quevedo, M.A., 1902. Conveniencia de estudiar todas las circunstancias en que se distribuye el agua pluvial que cae en la varias cuencas del territorio, de coordinar las observaciones pluviometricas con las de hidrometria en las mismas cuencas, asi como tambien de que se expidanas leyes conducentes a la conservacion y repoblacion de los bosques. In: Proceedings of the Congreso Meteorolegico Nacional, Mexico, 17-20 de diciembre de 1901 (s.p.). Ancira y Hermanos, Guadalajara, Mexico (as cited in Simonian, 1995, p. 71); Beltran, E., 1964. Use and conservation: two conflicting principles. In: Alexander, B.A. (Ed.), Proceedings of the First World Conference on National Parks. International Union for the Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources, Seattle, Washington, 30 June-1 July 1962. National Park Service, U.S. Department of the Interior, Washington, DC, pp. 35-43; Primack, R.B., Bray, D., Galletti, J.A., Ponciano, I. (Eds.), 1998. Timber, Tourists, and Temples: Conservation and Development in the Maya Forest of Belize, Guatemala, and Mexico. Island Press, Washington, DC, 426 pp.]. Mexico is among the top countries in the world in both biological and cultural diversity, one where the relatively pristine ecosystems are those occupied by indigenous peoples [Chapin, Mae., 1992. The coexistence of indigenous peoples and environments in Central America. National Geographic: Research and Exploration, vol. 8 (2), Map Supplement. National Geographic, Washington; Chapin, Mac., 2003. Indigenous peoples and natural ecosystems in Central America and Southern Mexico. National Geographic, Map Supplement, February 2003. National Geographic and The Center for Native Lands, Washington, DC]. Discovery of ecosystem degradation resulting from efforts to improve productivity has given rise to various programs introducing low-impact, alternative technologies that will improve livelihoods. We review (1) the evolution of biosphere reserve policy in general, (2) this process in Mexico as representative of the case in developing countries, and (3) the political history of the establishment of reserves in Mexico's Yucatan peninsula on lands and marine areas in use by communities of Yucatec Mayas and mestizos for livelihood. This article provides context for subsequent ones that analyze case studies and specific processes. (c) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 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3-4 GA 985CW UT ISI:000233354700002 ER PT J AU Bailis, R Ezzati, M Kammen, DM TI Greenhouse gas implications of household energy technology in Kenya SO ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY LA English DT Article C1 Univ Calif Berkeley, Energy & Resources Grp, Berkeley, CA 94720 USA. Resources Future Inc, Risk Resource & Environm Management Div, Washington, DC 20036 USA. Univ Calif Berkeley, Goldman Sch Publ Policy, Berkeley, CA 94720 USA. RP Bailis, R, Univ Calif Berkeley, Energy & Resources Grp, Berkeley, CA 94720 USA. AB Linkages between household energy technology, indoor air pollution, and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions have become increasingly important in understanding the local and global environmental and health effects of domestic energy use. We report on GHG emissions from common Kenyan wood and charcoal cookstoves. Our estimations are based on 29 d of measurements under the conditions of actual use in 19 rural Kenyan households. Carbon monoxide (CO), particulate matter (PM10), combustion phase, and fuel mass were measured continuously or in short intervals in day-long monitoring sessions. Emissions of pollutants other than CO and PM10 were estimated using emissions ratios from published literature. We estimated that the daily carbon emissions from charcoal stoves (5202 +/- 2257 g of C: mean SO) were lower than both traditional open fire (5990 +/- 1843 g of C) and improved ceramic woodstoves (5905 +/- 1553 g of C), but the differences were not statistically significant. However, when each pollutant was weighted using a 20-yr global warming potential, charcoal stoves emitted larger amounts of GHGs than either type of woodstove (9850 +/- 4600 g of C for charcoal as compared to 8310 +/- 2400 and 9649 +/- 2207 for open fire and ceramic woodstoves, respectively; differences not statistically significant). Non-CO2 emissions from charcoal stoves were 5549 +/- 2700 g of C in 20-yr CO2 equivalent units, while emissions were 2860 +/- 680 and 4711 +/- 919 for three-stone fires and improved ceramic stoves, respectively, with statistically significant results between charcoal and wood stoves. Therefore in a sustainable fuel-cycle (i.e., excluding CO2), charcoal stoves have larger emissions than woodstoves. When the emissions from charcoal production, measured in a previous study, were included in the assessment, the disparity between the GHG emissions from charcoal and firewood increased significantly, with non-CO2 GHG emissions factors (g of C/kg of fuel burned) for charcoal production and consumption 6-13 times higher than emissions from woodstoves. Policy implications and options for environment and public health are discussed. 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CR 1979, P WORLD CLIMATE C GE 1986, 1985 INT C ASS ROL C 1987, 1987 M EXP SENS WAT 1988, 1988 C P TOR 1989, 1ST US CAN S IMP CLI ARTHUR LM, 1988, CCD8801 CAN CLIM CTR BOLIN B, 1986, GREENHOUSE EFFECT CL BROWN R, 1986, 8614 ATM ENV SERV CA BUTZER KW, 1980, PROF GEOGR, V32, P269 CHEN RS, 1987, RR877 INT I APPL SYS CLARK WC, 1985, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V7, P5 COHEN SJ, 1986, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V8, P135 COHEN SJ, 1987, IAHS PUBL, V168, P489 COHEN SJ, 1988, J CLIMATE, V1, P669 COHEN SJ, 1989, 899 NAT HYDR RES CTR CROLEY TE, 1989, POTENTIAL EFFECTS GL DICKINSON RE, 1989, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V15, P383 GATES WL, 1985, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V7, P267 GIORGI F, 1989, 6TH P C APPL CLIM CH, P201 GLANTZ MH, 1987, CLIMATE CRISIS SOC I GLANTZ MH, 1988, SOC RESPONSES REGION GLANTZ MH, 1989, 1989 C HUM DEM NAT R GLEICK PH, 1987, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V10, P137 GOODISON BE, 1986, CORRECTION PRECIPITA GOODISON BE, 1989, IAHS PUBL, V179 GROTCH SL, 1988, DOENBB0084 US DEP EN JAEGER J, 1988, WMOTD225 WORLD MET O JAGER J, 1983, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V5, P39 JONES PD, 1989, J CLIMATE, V2, P285 KARL TR, 1989, B AM METEOROL SOC, V70, P265 KATES RW, 1985, CLIMATE IMPACT ASSES KELLOGG WW, 1977, WMO156 WORLD MET ORG KELLOGG WW, 1981, CLIMATE CHANGE SOC KELLOGG WW, 1987, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V10, P113 KELLOGG WW, 1988, J CLIMATE, V1, P348 LAMB PJ, 1987, B AM METEOROL SOC, V68, P1116 LEWIS JE, 1989, CANADIAN WATER RESOU, V14, P34 MARCHAND D, 1988, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V12, P107 MEARNS LO, 1989, POTENTIAL EFFECTS GL MITCHELL JFB, 1989, REV GEOPHYS, V27, P115 MUNN RE, 1979, CARBON DIOXIDE ISSUE, P19 PALUTIKOF JP, 1984, DOEEV100985 US DEP E PALUTIKOF JP, 1987, IAHS PUBL, V168, P585 PARRY ML, 1987, ASSESSMENT CLIMATE I, V1 RIEBSAME WE, 1988, ASSESSING SOCIAL IMP ROBINSON PJ, 1989, STRATEGIES DEV CLIMA SCHLESINGER ME, 1987, REV GEOPHYS, V25, P760 SCHNEIDER SH, 1989, SCIENCE, V243, P771 SEVRUK B, 1986, 1985 P INT WORKSH CO SMIT B, 1989, CCD8901 ENV CAN ATM SMIT B, 1989, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V14, P153 SMITH JB, 1989, POTENTIAL EFFECTS GL SONKA ST, 1987, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V11, P291 TIMMERMANN P, 1989, 1ST US CAN S IMP CLI WEBB T, 1987, GEOLOGY N AM K, V3 WILLIAMS GDV, 1987, ASSESSMENT CLIMATE I, V1 WONG RKW, 1989, STRATEGY ADAPTING CL NR 57 TC 34 J9 BULL AMER METEOROL SOC BP 520 EP 526 PY 1990 PD APR VL 71 IS 4 GA CZ526 UT ISI:A1990CZ52600005 ER PT J AU Jallow, BP Toure, S Barrow, MMK Mathieu, AA TI Coastal zone of The Gambia and the Abidjan region in Cote d'Ivoire: sea level rise vulnerability, response strategies, and adaptation options SO CLIMATE RESEARCH LA English DT Article C1 Dept Water Resources, Banjul, Gambia. Ecole Super Travaux Publ, Yamoussoukro, Cote Ivoire. Natl Environm Agcy, Banjul, Gambia. Univ Cocody, Dept Phys, Abidjan, Cote Ivoire. RP Jallow, BP, Dept Water Resources, 7 Marina Parade, Banjul, Gambia. AB The aerial videotape-assisted vulnerability analysis (AVVA) technique was combined with various data sets to assess the vulnerability of the coastal zone of The Gambia to sea level rise. Land loss due to inundation, flooding, and erosion was estimated. Costs of damage and population at risk were also evaluated. Only historical data and maps were used to assess the vulnerability of the coastal zone of the Abidjan region of Cote d'Ivoire to sea level rise. Results show that with a 1 m sea level rise the whole of the capital city of Banjul will be under mean sea level in the next 50 to 60 yr as a greater part of the city is below 1 m. The mangrove systems on St. Mary's Island, Kombo St. Mary, and the strand plains in the north bank will be inundated. About 1950 billion Dalasis (US $217 million) worth of land will be lost. The most appropriate response would be to protect the whole of the coastline of Banjul, the shoreline area from the Banjul cemeteries to Laguna Beach Hotel, the infrastructure at Sarro, and the hotel complex at Cape Point. Innovative sand management, repair of the damaged groins, and construction of dikes, breakwater structures, revetments, and low-cost seawall are some of the shoreline stabilization and hardening techniques suggested for the protection of this area. For the Abidjan region, the same response strategies should be used. Adaptation responses identified for both regions include public awareness, increase in height of coastal infrastructure, urban growth planning, wetland preservation and mitigation, and development of a coastal zone management plan. CR *IPCC, 1990, RESP STRAT AD ASS RE *PAA, 1996, PORT AUT AB UN REF A ABE J, 1995, AT GEST INT ZON LITT BLIVI A, 1993, COASTLINES W AFRICA DELOR C, 1992, MEMOIRE, V4 DENNIS KC, 1995, J COASTAL RES, V14, P243 HANDS EB, 1983, HDB COASTAL PROCESSE, P167 JALLOW BP, 1996, CLIMATE RES, V6, P165 LEATHERMAN SP, 1995, J COASTAL RES, V14, P15 NICHOLLS RJ, 1995, J COASTAL RES, V14, P26 PEPPER W, 1992, EMISSIONS SCENARIOS QUELENNEC RE, 1988, IDENTIFICATION COAST NR 12 TC 0 J9 CLIMATE RES BP 129 EP 136 PY 1999 PD AUG 27 VL 12 IS 2-3 GA V3096 UT ISI:000171723000010 ER PT J AU GORDON, RB KILLICK, DJ TI ADAPTATION OF TECHNOLOGY TO CULTURE AND ENVIRONMENT - BLOOMERY IRON SMELTING IN AMERICA AND AFRICA SO TECHNOLOGY AND CULTURE LA English DT Article C1 UNIV ARIZONA,DEPT ANTHROPOL,TUCSON,AZ 85721. RP GORDON, RB, YALE UNIV,KLINE GEOL LAB,NEW HAVEN,CT 06520. CR ALLAN W, 1965, AFRICAN HUSBANDMAN ALLEN RF, 1990, J SOC IND ARCHEOLOGY, V16, P3 ALLEN RS, 1967, PENFIELD F HIST PUBL, V1 ALLEN RS, 1983, CANADIAN MINING META, V76, P85 AVERY DH, 1986, J FIELD ARCHAEOL, V13, P354 AVERY DH, 1988, BEGINNING USE METALS, P266 BIXBY GF, 1911, NEW YORK HIST ASS P, V10, P169 CHAHOON G, 1875, IRON AGE, V16, P7 CHILDS ST, 1989, POTTERY TECHNOLOGY I, P139 CLINE W, 1937, MINING METALLURGY NE EGLESTON T, 1879, T AM I MIN MET ENG, V8, P515 GLENN MF, 1977, STORY 3 TOWNS, P197 GORDON RB, IN PRESS ARCHEOMATER GORDON RB, 1988, ARCHEOMATERIALS, V2, P109 HAALANDD R, 1985, AFRICAN IRON WORKING HARDY PJ, 1985, THESIS BOWLING GREEN HAUDRICOURT AG, 1988, TECHNOLOGIE SCI HUMA HERMELIN SG, 1931, REPORT MINES US AM HOWE HM, 1904, METALLURGY STEEL HUNT TS, 1869, REPORT PROGR, P245 HURD DH, 1880, HIST CLINTON FRANKLI KILLICK D, 1991, JOM-J MIN MET MAT S, V43, P62 KILLICK DJ, 1990, THESIS YALE U, CH6 LINNEY JR, 1934, HIST CCHATEAUGAY ORE LIVINGSTONE D, 1865, NARRATIVE EXPEDITION, P561 MADIN R, 1988, BEGINNING USE METALS, P245 MALONE PM, 1988, IA J SOC IND ARCHAEO, V14, P59 MARWICK M, 1965, SORCERY ITS SOCIAL S, P67 MORAVEK JR, 1976, THESIS U TENNESSEE K ONIELL P, 1988, TREE IRON REHDER JE, 1987, ARCHEOMATERIALS, V2, P47 REHDER JF, 1989, ARCHEOMATERIALS, V4, P106 ROSTOKER W, 1990, ARCHEOMATERIALS MONO, V1 SALTMAN C, 1986, BLOOMS BANJELI TECHN TYLECCOTE RF, 1986, PREHISTORY METALLURG TYLECOTE RF, 1971, J IRON STEEL I, V209, P342 TYLECOTE RF, 1976, HIST METALLURGY, CH5 TYLECOTE RF, 1985, FURNACES SMELTING TE, P3 VANDERMERWE NJ, 1987, AFRICA, V57, P143 WALLER H, 1874, LAST J DD LIVINGSTON, P131 WATSON WC, 1869, MILITARY CIVIL HIST WERTIME TA, 1980, COMING AGE IRON WYNNE EJ, 1958, J IRON STEEL I, V190, P339 NR 43 TC 5 J9 TECHNOL CULTURE BP 243 EP 270 PY 1993 PD APR VL 34 IS 2 GA LH981 UT ISI:A1993LH98100001 ER PT J AU du Plessis, C Irurah, DK Scholes, RJ TI The built environment and climate change in South Africa SO BUILDING RESEARCH AND INFORMATION LA English DT Article C1 CSIR Bldg & Construct Boutek, Programme Sustainable Human Settlements, ZA-0001 Pretoria, South Africa. Univ Witwatersrand, Sch Architecture & Planning, ZA-2050 Wits, South Africa. CSIR Water Environm & Forestry Environmentek, ZA-0001 Pretoria, South Africa. RP du Plessis, C, CSIR Bldg & Construct Boutek, Programme Sustainable Human Settlements, POB 395, ZA-0001 Pretoria, South Africa. AB The demands of climate change are appraised in relation to the impacts on and contribution of the built environment in South Africa to climate change. These demands are situated within the broader South African developmental context. The current status and scope of national policy and strategy initiatives aimed, first, at mitigating the role of the built environment in climate change, and, second, at adapting current settlement and construction practices to projected climate change in the country are assessed. Suggestions are made for filling the identified gaps in policy development and research. The paper concludes that climate change is not a major item on the country's research and policy development agendas, and the country is reluctant to take responsibility for its own role in the crisis. Both adaptation and mitigation is happening in an ad hoc manner, often driven by pressures other than climate change, and the task of interweaving the demands of climate change into South Africa's settlement development policies is yet to be attempted in a focussed manner. CR *AM I ARCH, 1996, MAT ENV RES GUID *CENTR STAT SERV, 1995, 0402041993 CSS *CIA, 2001, WORLD FACTB S AFR *CSIR, 1999, BOUC276 CSIR *DEP ENV AFF TOUR, 2000, 1 NAT COMM CLIM CHAN *DEP HOUS, 2002, SUST SETTL CAS STUD *DEP PROV AFF CONS, MUN INFR INV FRAM *EIA, 2002, S AFR ENV ISS *EN RES I, 2001, PREL EN OUTL S AFR *ESK, 2002, ESK ENV INF 2002 *F NANS I, 2002, YB INT COOP ENV DEV *HLTH SYST TRUST, 2000, S AFR HLTH REV 2000 *ING BAR, 1999, DEM IMP AIDS S AFR E *ING BAR, 2000, EC IMP AIDS S AFR DA *INT EN AG, 1986, EN POL S AFR 1996 SU *INT EN AG, 1998, WORLD EN OUTL *INT ROAD FED, 1999, WORLD ROAD STAT REP *IPCC, 2001, CLIM CHANG 2001 SCI *NAT BOT I, 2001, IMP CLIM CHANG PLANT *NAT COMM CLIM CHA, 1998, DISC DOC CLIM CHANG *NAT EL REG, 2002, ELECT REGULATORY MAR, P4 *S AFR I RAC REL, 2001, S AFR SURV 2000 2001 *S AFR RES BANK, 2002, Q B S AFR RES BANK *S AFR WEATH BUR, 2002, AV CLIM DAT SEL CTR *STAT S AFR, 2000, 1999 OCT HOUS SURV *STAT S AFR, 2001, S AFR TRANS *SYNC AFR CIT JOH, 2001, SUST HOUS POL JOH IM *WERKSM ATT, 2001, BUS GUID S AFR 25 JU ASHTON PJ, 2002, HYDROPOLITICS DEV WO BASSON MS, 1997, OVERVIEW WATER RESOU DOPPEGIETER JJ, 2001, ENERGY INDICATORS 20 DORRINGTON R, 2001, IMPACT HIV AIDS ADUL DUPLESSIS C, 2002, AGENDA 21 SUSTAINABL DUPLESSIS C, 2002, PUBLICATION BOU C, V368 GARSTANG M, 1996, J GEOPHYS RES-ATMOS, V101, P23721 GROBLER LJ, 2002, P SBID SOL AC 2002 IRURAH DK, 1997, THESIS U PRETORIA IRURAH DK, 1999, CONSTRUCTION MANAGEM, V17, P363 LEMON A, 1991, HOMES APART S AFRICA, P1 MCCARTHY J, 1998, S AFRICAS DISCARDED NGOASHENG M, 1995, IND STRATEGY BUILDIN RUITERS G, 2001, POLITIKON, V28, P95 TODES A, 2000, P URB FUT C U WITW J VANDERMERWE MR, 1999, 4 NAT CLIM CHANG COM VONMALTITZ GP, 1995, ENVIRON MONIT ASSESS, V38, P243 NR 45 TC 2 J9 BUILDING RES INFORM BP 240 EP 256 PY 2003 PD MAY-AUG VL 31 IS 3-4 GA 688EE UT ISI:000183419700006 ER PT J AU Gonzalez, AA Nigh, R TI Smallholder participation and certification of organic farm products in Mexico SO JOURNAL OF RURAL STUDIES LA English DT Article C1 Univ Nacl Autonoma Mexico, PROIMMSE, Inst Invest Antropol, San Cristobal De Las Cas, Chiapas, Mexico. Ctr Invest & Estudios Super Antropol Social, San Cristobal De Las Cas, Chiapas, Mexico. RP Gonzalez, AA, Univ Nacl Autonoma Mexico, PROIMMSE, Inst Invest Antropol, San Cristobal De Las Cas, Chiapas, Mexico. AB Organic and other environmental and social marketing devices seek to connect producers and consumers more directly and reward environmentally and socially superior production systems. Some researchers have observed that these schemes may introduce mechanisms of exclusion, creating an elite group of certified smallholders while putting non-certified farmers at a distinct disadvantage and introducing division among people whose true interest may lie more in relations of solidarity and cooperation The trade and regulatory environment that smallholder coops must navigate is increasingly complex and adaptation to its requirements has important implications for farmer organizations Standards applied to certify smallholder production systems tend to be developed with regard to first-world consumer interests and imposed in a top-down fashion by certification agencies and intermediaries, with little or no farmer participation. Especially in the tropics, agricultural standards that reflect temperate country conditions may place unnecessary burdens on growers who attempt to meet agronomic norms that are irrelevant to local agroecologies. After providing a summary of organic farming and certification in Mexico over the past two decades, we discuss three emerging trends the advent of contract agriculture in organic production, the appearance of a new, environmentally-based coffee certification system intended to favor bird conservation, and a recent government program to support transition to organic production. All three trends involve certain contradictions, both with the foundational social and ecological goals of organic agriculture and with the interests of small farmers. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR ALLEN P, 2003, J RURAL STUD, V19, P61 BARTRA A, 1991, CUADERNOS DESARROLLO, V2, P5 BUNCH R, 2000, UNPUB NUTRIENT QUANT BUSCH L, 2004, RURAL SOCIOL, V69, P321 CASTILLO RAH, 1998, MEXICO AM ANTHR, V100, P136 CONNER DS, 2004, AGR HUM VALUES, V21, P27 DELIND LB, 2000, HUM ORGAN, V59, P198 EVANS P, 2004, STUD COMP INT DEV, V38, P30 GEREFFI G, 2001, FOREIGN POLICY JUL, P56 GONZALEZ AA, 2000, EUROPEAN REV LATIN A, P75 GUTHMAN J, 2004, AGRARIAN DREAMS PARA HENDRICKSON M, 2001, CONSOLIDATIO FOOD RE LEWONTIN RC, 1982, SCI PEOPLE JAN, P12 MAS AH, 2004, ECOL APPL, V14, P642 MOGUEL P, 1999, CONSERV BIOL, V13, P11 MUTERSBAUGH T, 2002, ENVIRON PLANN A, V34, P1165 MUTERSBAUGH T, 2004, ENVIRON PLANN D, V22, P533 NIGH R, 1997, HUM ORGAN, V56, P427 NIGH R, 1999, URBAN ANTHROP, V28, P1 NIGH R, 2002, PRIVADO PUBLICA ORG, P73 PINTO EDA, 2005, THESIS CTR INVESTIGA PRIMAVESI A, 1990, MANEJO ECOLOGICO SOL RAYNOLDS L, 2000, AGR HUM VALUES, V17, P297 RENARD MC, 1999, INTERSTICIOS GLOBALI RICE PD, 1999, SUSTAINBLE COFFEE CR ROCHELEAU D, 1999, ADV AGROECOL, P191 SEN AK, 1999, AM ECON REV, V89, P349 SEPPANEN L, 2004, AGR HUM VALUES, V21, P1 STONE GD, 2004, HUM ORGAN, V63, P127 TOVAR LG, 2002, FRUTAS HORTILIZAS ES, P321 TOVAR LG, 2003, PROD COMERCIALIZACIO, P91 TOVAR LG, 2004, UNPUB AGR ORG MEX EJ WELSH R, 1996, IND REORGANIZATION U NR 33 TC 1 J9 J RURAL STUD BP 449 EP 460 PY 2005 PD OCT VL 21 IS 4 GA 991QO UT ISI:000233828900006 ER PT J AU Rajan, SC TI Automobility, liberalism, and the ethics of driving SO ENVIRONMENTAL ETHICS LA English DT Article C1 Tellus Inst, Boston, MA USA. RP Rajan, SC, Tellus Inst, 11 Arlington St, Boston, MA USA. AB Automobility. or the myriad institutions that foster car Culture, has rarely if ever been put under the lens of liberal political theory even though driving is one of the most common and widely accepted features of daily life in modern societies. When its implied promise of guaranteeing both freedom and equality is examined more closely, however, it appears that the ethical implications of driving may be darker than initially Supposed. Automobility may indeed be in violation of both the Kantian categorical imperative and Gewirth's principle of generic consistency, even though there has thus far been remarkably little ethical analysis to reveal these possibilities. It is conceivable that liberal political theory has turned a blind eye to automobility precisely because the latter has naturalized us into accepting what Roberto Unger has called a routine of "false necessity," so that driving is now virtually imperceptible as a social fact worthy of critical analysis. CR 1996, ECONOMIST 1221 AGARWAL A, 1999, GREEN POLITICS BEYLEVELD D, 1999, GEWIRTH CRITICAL ESS CONNOLLY WE, 1988, POLITICAL THEORY MOD DAVIS SC, 2003, TRANSPORTATION ENERG DELUCCHI M, 1997, ANN SOCIAL COST MOTO DUNN JA, 1998, AUTOMOBILE ITS ENEMI EWING R, 1994, ENV URBAN ISSUES, V21, P1 FEATHERSTONE M, 2005, AUTOMOBILITIES FLINK JJ, 1988, AUTOMOBILE AGE GEWIRTH A, 1978, REASON MORALITY, P26 GEWIRTH A, 1990, UPSTREAM DOWNSTREAM GOODIN RE, 1989, ETHICS, V99, P574 HEIMLICH RE, 2001, AER803 USDA EC RES S HUSAK DN, 1994, PHILOS PUBLIC AFF, V23, P52 KATEB G, 1984, POLIT THEORY, V12, P331 KAY JH, 1997, ASPHALT NATION AUTOM KRIER JE, 1977, POLLUTION POLICY CAS LOMASKY L, 1997, INDEP REV, V2, P5 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 MEYER JW, 1986, RECONSTRUCTING INDIV MILL JS, 1974, LIBERTY, P114 PUCHER J, 1999, TRANSPORT Q, V53, P115 RAJAN SC, 1996, ENIGMA AUTOMOBILITY RAJAN SC, 2004, SMOKE MIRRORS POLITI RAJAN SC, 2006, ENERG POLICY, V34, P664 SCHNEIDER KR, 1971, ANAL TYRANNY PROPOSA STEIN JM, 1985, ANN EMERG MED, V14, P278 TOY EL, 2003, RISK ANAL, V23, P641 UNGER RM, 1987, FALSE NECESSITY ANTI VITALIS R, 2002, DIPLOMATIC HIST, V26, P185 NR 31 TC 0 J9 ENVIRON ETHICS BP 77 EP 90 PY 2007 PD SPR VL 29 IS 1 GA 140GE UT ISI:000244491800005 ER PT J AU Negi, CS TI Role of traditional knowledge and beliefs in conservation - Case studies from Central Himalaya, India SO MAN IN INDIA LA English DT Article C1 Govt Postgrad Coll, Dept Zool, Pithoragarh 262502, Uttaranchal, India. RP Negi, CS, Govt Postgrad Coll, Dept Zool, Pithoragarh 262502, Uttaranchal, India. AB The field of environmental studies has been till now concerned mainly with the scientific study of bio-diversity and biophysical exchange while culture and environment remains a relatively new and uncharted territory. Although considerable research work has been undertaken by anthropologists and ecologists, a lot of important information and indigenous knowledge base has already been lost as old people die and their knowledge is not transmitted to younger generations. It is to be noted that ecology is the key to a better understanding of the place that man occupied in nature and of the religious and customary rules that he developed to assist him in his survival. With the disappearance of many traditional customs and the death of those, who enforced them, a lot of extremely valuable information has been/well be lost forever. The present study deals with the traditional beliefs and customs being practiced in the central Himalayas and makes an attempt to bring out the inherent environmental principles behind these practices. Pragmatic approaches combining conservation and sustainable uses are considered, as are traditional values that have conserved the forest and wildlife in the past. CR *IUCN UNEP WWF, 1980, WORLD CONS STRAT LIV *IUCN UNEP WWF, 1991, CAR EARTH STRAT SUST BADONI AK, 1988, JOHSARD, V11, P103 BURMAN JJR, 1995, J HUMAN ECOLOGY, V6, P245 GADGIL M, 1976, ECON BOT, V30, P152 GADGIL M, 1980, NATL ACAD SCI INDIA GADGIL M, 1981, SACRED GROVES MAHARA, P279 GARDEN CA, 1990, TRADITIONAL FOREST R JOSHI PC, 1992, HIMALAYA ENV EC PEOP, P453 KOSAMBI DD, 1992, MYTH REALITY POPULAR KUMBHOJKAR MS, 1998, SCI CULTURE, V64, P205 MAIKHURI RK, 2000, ENVIRON CONSERV, V27, P43 MALHOTRA KC, 1989, FOREST REGENERATION RAMAKRISHNAN PS, 1996, AMBIO, V4, P11 RAPPAPORT RA, 1967, PIGS ANCESTORS RITUA, V1, P1 SENSARMA P, 1995, ETHNOBOTANY, V7, P51 SINHA B, 1998, CONSERVING SACRED BI SINHA RK, 1995, J HUMAN ECOLOGY, V2, P21 VIDYARTHI LP, 1963, MALER STUDY NATURE M NR 19 TC 0 J9 MAN INDIA BP 371 EP 391 PY 2003 PD JUL-DEC VL 83 IS 3-4 GA 779VH UT ISI:000189321900009 ER PT J AU Adger, WN TI Institutional adaptation to environmental risk under the transition in Vietnam SO ANNALS OF THE ASSOCIATION OF AMERICAN GEOGRAPHERS LA English DT Article C1 Univ E Anglia, Sch Environm Sci, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. Univ E Anglia, Ctr Social & Econ Res Global Environ, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. RP Adger, WN, Univ E Anglia, Sch Environm Sci, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. AB This paper develops a theoretical perspective on institutional adaptation to social vulnerability to environmental risks. Institutions encompass both socialized ways of interacting and underlying worldviews, as well as structures and organizations that influence resource allocation The adaptation of institutions that mediate vulnerability to environmental change can be observed by examining actual resource allocations and the processes of decisionmaking and nondecisionmaking, as well as by examining changing perceptions of vulnerability. Institutional adaptation is evaluated in Nam Dinh Province in northern Vietnam, a country presently undergoing rapid economic and political transition. The case study highlights local-level institutional adaptation to environmental risks associated with flooding and typhoon impacts in the coastal environment. It is carried out through fieldwork involving qualitative household survey is and interviewing to elicit present and recent coping and adaptation strategies in the context of rapid changes in property rights and economic circumstances. Although Vietnam's transition from state central planning is often heralded as a macroeconomic success story, this study argues that the transition has had negative impacts on social Vulnerability. A decrease in collective action for risk management by state institutions is exacerbated by inertia in some aspects of the decentralized state planning system, while the parallel spontaneous reemergence of civil institutions forms a counterbalancing institutional adaptation. CR 1996, COMMUNICATION APR *SPC GSO, 1994, VIETN LIV STAND SURV *VIETN GEN STAT OF, 1995, STAT YB 1994 *XUAN THUY DISTR P, 1996, XUAN THUY POT INV DE ADGER WN, 1996, 9605 U E ANGL U COLL ADGER WN, 1999, J DEV STUD, V35, P96 ADGER WN, 1999, WORLD DEV, V27, P249 BACHRACH P, 1970, POWER POVERTY THEORY BAKKER K, 1999, 3 SIRCH OXF U ENV CH BEETHAM D, 1991, LEGITIMATION POWER BERNARD HR, 1994, RES METHODS ANTHR QU BLAIKIE PM, 1994, RISK NATURAL HAZARDS, V1, P1 BOHLE HG, 1994, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V4, P37 CANTOR R, 1994, IND ECOLOGY GLOBAL C, P69 CHAMBERS R, 1989, IDS B, V20, P1 CHEN RS, 1994, IND ECOLOGY GLOBAL C, P85 CHRISTOPLOS I, 1995, 6 LINK U CLARK WC, 2001, LEARNING MANAGE GLOB CUC L, 1990, 12 E W CTR CUC L, 1993, 15 E W CTR CUTTER SL, 1996, PROG HUM GEOG, V20, P529 DEJANVRY A, 1993, WORLD DEV, V21, P565 FFORDE A, 1990, COMMUNIST AGR FARMIN, P107 FFORDE A, 1996, PLAN MARKET EC TRANS HALL PA, 1996, POLIT STUD-LONDON, V44, P936 JAMIESON NL, 1993, UNDERSTANDING VIETNA JORDAN A, 1995, 9521 U E ANGL U COLL KASPERSON JX, 1995, REGIONS RISK, V1, P1 KASPERSON RE, 1992, SOCIAL THEORIES RISK, P153 KELLY PM, 2001, INP RESS LIVING ENV KERKVLIET BJT, 1995, J ASIAN STUD, V54, P396 KERKVLIET BJT, 1998, CHINA J, V40, P37 KOLKO G, 1997, VIETNAM ANAT PEACE KRIMSKY S, 1992, SOCIAL THEORIES RISK KRUEGER AO, 1974, AM ECON REV, V64, P291 LACOSTE Y, 1973, ANTIPODE, V5, P1 MALARNEY SK, 1997, J ASIAN STUD, V56, P899 MARCH JG, 1996, GOVERNANCE, V9, P247 MARTINEZALIER J, 1987, ECOLOGICAL EC ENERGY MULDAVIN JSS, 1996, LIBERATION ECOLOGIES, P227 MULDAVIN JSS, 1997, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V87, P579 NORGAARD RB, 1994, DEV BETRAYED END PRO ORIORDAN T, 1998, HUMAN CHOICE CLIMATE, V1, P345 OSTROM E, 1999, SCIENCE, V284, P278 PARSON EA, 1995, BARRIERS BRIDGES REN, P428 PINGALI PL, 1997, FOOD POLICY, V22, P345 ROBBINS P, 1998, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V88, P410 SABATIER PA, 1993, POLICY CHANGE LEARNI SANDERSON S, 1994, CHANGES LAND USE LAN, P329 SCHLACK RF, 1996, J ECON ISSUES, V30, P617 SLATER D, 1989, DEV CHANGE, V20, P501 SLATER D, 1995, GEOGRAPHIES GLOBAL C, P63 SMITH A, 1998, THEORISING TRANSITIO, P1 SMITH K, 1996, ENV HAZARDS ASSESSIN SUSMAN P, 1983, INTERPRETATIONS CALA, P263 TURLEY WS, 1993, REINVENTING VIETNAME VANLUONG H, 1992, REVOLUTION VILLAGE T VANLUONG H, 1993, CHALLENGE REFORM IND, P259 WATTS MJ, 1993, PROG HUM GEOG, V17, P43 WATTS MJ, 1998, THEORISING TRANSITIO, P450 WIEGERSMA N, 1988, VIETNAM PEASANT LAND NR 61 TC 5 J9 ANN ASSN AMER GEOGR BP 738 EP 758 PY 2000 PD DEC VL 90 IS 4 GA 389UU UT ISI:000166257700005 ER PT J AU Hundal, SS Prabhjyot-Kaur TI Climatic variability and its impact on cereal productivity in Indian Punjab SO CURRENT SCIENCE LA English DT Article C1 Punjab Agr Univ, Dept Agron & Agrometeorol, Ludhiana 141004, Punjab, India. RP Prabhjyot-Kaur, Punjab Agr Univ, Dept Agron & Agrometeorol, Ludhiana 141004, Punjab, India. AB Dynamic crop growth simulation models CERES-Rice and CERES-Wheat for rice and wheat, respectively were used to study the effect of climate change on growth and yield of these crops under non-limiting water and nitrogen availability. Analysis of recent 30 year historical weather data from different locations in the state revealed that the minimum temperatures have decreased or increased (-0.02 to + 0.07 degrees C/year), maximum temperatures decreased (-0.005 to -0.06 degrees C/ year) and rainfall increased (2.5-16.8 mm/year). Keeping in view the observed trends in climate variability, growth and yield of crops were simulated under plausible synthetic climatic scenarios of changes in temperature and solar radiation. In general, with an increase in temperature above normal, the phenological development in wheat was advanced, but that of rice was not much affected. With an increase in temperature up to 1.0 degrees C the yield of rice and wheat decreased by 3 and 10%, respectively. On the other hand, crop yields decreased with decrease in radiation and vice-versa. The interaction effects of simultaneous increase/decrease in parameters were also simulated. When the maximum temperature decreased by 0.25 to 1.0 degrees C while minimum temperature increased by 1.0 to 3.0 degrees C from normal, the yield in rice and wheat decreased by 0.8 and 3.0%, respectively from normal. CR *IPCC TGCIA, 1999, GUID US SCEN DAT CLI, P69 *IPCC, 1996, 2 SCI ASS CLIM CHANG, P879 BACHELET D, 1993, ECOL MODEL, V65, P71 FARQUHAR GD, 1997, SCIENCE, V278, P1411 GADGIL S, 1996, CLIMATE VARIABILITY, P1 GODWIN D, 1990, USERS GUIDE CERES WI, P94 HOUGHTON JT, 1996, SCI CLIMATE CHANGE HUME CJ, 1990, OUTLOOK AGR, V19, P17 HUNDAL SS, 1996, CLIMATE VARIABILITY, P377 HUNDAL SS, 1997, J AGR SCI 1, V129, P13 HUNDAL SS, 1999, ORYZA, V36, P63 HUNDAL SS, 2002, J AGROMETEOROL, V4, P113 MEARNS LO, 1996, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V32, P257 OLSZYK DM, 1999, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V97, P87 PEART RM, 1989, 2300589053 EPA, V1 RAO G, 1994, 9244 GEC CTR SOC EC RITCHIE JT, 1986, P INT WORKSH IMP WEA, P271 RITCHIE JT, 1993, SYSTEMS APPROACH AGR RITCHIE JT, 1998, UNDERSTANDING OPTION, P79 ROSENZWEIG C, 1994, IMPLICATIONS CLIMATE SINGH U, 2002, MODELLING IRRIGATED, P17 SINHA SK, 1993, INT CROP SCI, V1, P281 TIMSINA J, 2003, 1603 CISRO LAND WAT, P57 WATSON RT, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, V1, P1 WATSON RT, 1998, REGIONAL IMPACTS CLI, V1, P1 WIGLEY TML, 1989, PRIM MIN SEM GLOB CL NR 26 TC 0 J9 CURR SCI BP 506 EP 512 PY 2007 PD FEB 25 VL 92 IS 4 GA 144CT UT ISI:000244773700027 ER PT J AU Tompkins, EL Adger, WN TI Defining response capacity to enhance climate change policy SO ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE & POLICY LA English DT Article C1 Univ E Anglia, Sch Environm Sci, Tyndall Ctr Climate Change Res, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. Univ Southampton, Dept Geog, Southampton, Hants, England. RP Tompkins, EL, Univ E Anglia, Sch Environm Sci, Tyndall Ctr Climate Change Res, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. AB Climate change adaptation and mitigation decisions made by governments are usually taken in different policy domains. At the individual level however, adaptation and mitigation activities are undertaken together as part of the management of risk and resources. We propose that a useful starting point to develop a national climate policy is to understand what societal response might mean in practice. First we frame the set of responses at the national policy level as a trade off between investment in the development and diffusion of new technology, and investment in encouraging and enabling society to change its behaviour and or adopt the new technology. We argue that these are the pertinent trade-offs, rather than those usually posited between climate change mitigation and adaptation. The preference for a policy response that focuses more on technological innovation rather than one that focuses on changing social behaviour will be influenced by the capacity of different societies to change their greenhouse gas emissions; by perceived vulnerability to climate impacts; and by capacity to modify social behaviour and physical environment. Starting with this complete vision of response options should enable policy makers to re-evaluate the risk environment and the set of response options available to them. From here, policy makers should consider who is responsible for making climate response decisions and when actions should be taken. Institutional arrangements dictate social and political acceptability of different policies, they structure worldviews, and they determine the provision of resources for investment in technological innovation and social change. The importance of focussing on the timing of the response is emphasised to maximise the potential for adjustments through social learning and institutional change at different policy scales. We argue that the ability to respond to climate change is both enabled and constrained by social and technological conditions. The ability of society to respond to climate change and the need for technological change for both decarbonisation and for dealing with surprise in general, are central to concepts of sustainable development. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 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Middlesex Univ, Flood Hazard Res Ctr, Enfield EN3 4SF, Middx, England. Meteorol Serv, Vacoas, Mauritius. Tecnomare SpA, R&D Div, I-30124 Venice, Italy. NOAA, Coastal Serv Ctr, Charleston, SC 29405 USA. RP Klein, RJT, Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res, POB 601203, D-14412 Potsdam, Germany. AB Many different technologies exist to adapt to natural coastal hazards. These technologies can also play an important part in reducing vulnerability to climate change in coastal zones. Technologies are available to develop information and awareness for adaptation in coastal zones, to plan and design adaptation strategies, to implement them, and to monitor and evaluate their performance. This paper briefly describes these four steps and provides important examples of technologies that can be employed to accomplish them. 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1997, EOS, V78, P396 NR 176 TC 5 J9 J COASTAL RES BP 531 EP 543 PY 2001 PD SUM VL 17 IS 3 GA 479BD UT ISI:000171383300003 ER PT J AU Gregory, PJ Ingram, JSI Brklacich, M TI Climate change and food security SO PHILOSOPHICAL TRANSACTIONS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY B-BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES LA English DT Article C1 Scottish Crop Res Inst, Dundee DD2 5DA, Scotland. NERC, CEH, GECAFS Int Project Off, Wallingford OX10 8BB, Oxon, England. Carleton Univ, Dept Geog & Environm Studies, Ottawa, ON K1S 5B6, Canada. RP Gregory, PJ, Scottish Crop Res Inst, Dundee DD2 5DA, Scotland. AB Dynamic interactions between and within the biogeophysical and human environments lead to the production, processing, distribution, preparation and consumption of food, resulting in food systems that underpin food security. Food systems encompass food availability (production, distribution and exchange), food access (affordability, allocation and preference) and food utilization (nutritional and societal values and safety), so that food security is, therefore, diminished when food systems are stressed. Such stresses may be induced by a range of factors in addition to climate change and/or other agents of environmental change (e.g. conflict, HIV/AIDS) and may be particularly severe when these factors act in combination. Urbanization and globalization are causing rapid changes to food systems. Climate change may affect food systems in several ways ranging from direct effects on crop production (e.g. changes in rainfall leading to drought or flooding, or warmer or cooler temperatures leading to changes in the length of growing season), to changes in markets, food prices and supply chain infrastructure. The relative importance of climate change for food security differs between regions. For example, in southern Africa, climate is among the most frequently cited drivers of food insecurity because it acts both as an underlying, ongoing issue and as a short-lived shock. The low ability to cope with shocks and to mitigate long-term stresses means that coping strategies that might be available in other regions are unavailable or inappropriate. In other regions, though, such as parts of the Indo-Gangetic Plain of India, other drivers, such as labour issues and the availability and quality of ground water for irrigation, rank higher than the direct effects of climate change as factors influencing food security. Because of the multiple socio-economic and bio-physical factors affecting food systems and hence food security, the capacity to adapt food systems to reduce their vulnerability to climate change is not uniform. Improved systems of food production, food distribution and economic access may all contribute to food systems adapted to cope with climate change, but in adopting such changes it will be important to ensure that they contribute to sustainability. Agriculture is a major contributor of the greenhouse gases methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O), so that regionally derived policies promoting adapted food systems need to mitigate further climate change. 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RP Smith, ML, Univ Calif Los Angeles, Dept Anthropol, Los Angeles, CA 90095 USA. AB The use of "average" yields to formulate models of premodern agriculture obscures the dynamic components of agricultural decision-making. Using colonial documents and archaeological data from the Deccan region of central India, this paper illustrates the complexities of how ancient peoples initigated fluctuations in agricultural yields. Nineteenth-century documents show striking differences in yields from year to year and illustrate the way in which people compensated for those fluctuations by using wild foods and cultivating alternate crops that were less palatable but more reliable. Archaeobotanical, archaeological, and textual data from the Chalcolithic to the Early Historic periods (c. 1500 B.C. to 300 A.D.) indicate similar adaptive strategies, in which the early inhabitants of the region managed resources at the household level to provide subsistence security, as well as the steady provision of a tradable surplus. 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Univ Southampton, Dept Geog, Southampton SO17 1BJ, Hants, England. RP Tompkins, EL, Univ E Anglia, Sch Environm Sci, Tyndall Ctr Climate Change Res, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. AB This paper examines contemporary national scale responses to tropical storm risk in a small island in the Caribbean to derive lessons for adapting to climate change. There is little empirical evidence to guide national planners on how to adapt to climate change, and less still on how to build on past adaptation experiences. The paper investigates the construction of institutional resilience and the process of adaptation to tropical storm risk by the Cayman Islands' Government from 1988 to 2002. It explains the roles of persuasion, exposure and collective action as key components in developing the ability to buffer external disturbance using models of institutional economics and social resilience concepts. The study finds that self-efficacy, strong local and international support networks, combined with a willingness to act collectively and to learn from mistakes appear to have increased the resilience of the Cayman Islands' Government to tropical storm risk. The lessons learned from building resilience to storm risk can contribute to the creation of national level adaptive capacity to climate change, but climate change has to be prioritised before these lessons can be transferred. (C) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 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NERC, Ctr Ecol & Hydrol, GCTE Focus Off 3, Wallingford OX10 8BB, Oxon, England. RP Gregory, PJ, Univ Reading, Dept Soil Sci, POB 233,Whiteknights, Reading RG6 6DW, Berks, England. AB Production of food and forest products will need to increase to meet the world's projected demand. This challenge can be met by either extensification or intensification but, with little new land available for agriculture in many regions of rapid population growth, intensification will be pre-eminent. Global, average cereal yields will need to rise from the current 2.9 to 4.2 Mg ha(-1) by 2025. The task of increasing production will be made more complex by the additional and interactive effects of changes in climate, atmospheric composition, land use and other global change drivers. However, increasing production with existing technologies will, itself, enhance these major drivers of global change and have other substantial impacts. The global change agenda relating to food and forest products considers research into impacts, adaptation and mitigation. Adaptation and mitigation need to be considered together to harness new technologies (including the use of biotechnology and computer-assisted management schemes) and integrate them with existing technologies in production systems. Better economic, finance and trade policies will also be necessary to allow mon open trade of food and forest products. These factors, together with the positive effects that increased atmospheric CO:! concentration will have on yield will reduce the degree of intensification required to meet demand, thereby mitigating some of the unfavourable environmental consequences. However, there are several social and biophysical management issues associated with intensification that have proven intractable to past research approaches that urgently require resolution. Further research on improving nutrient use efficiency and other aspects of agronomic practice is clearly needed both to increase production and reduce harmful effects on other ecosystems. The effects of fluctuations of weather in the short term on agricultural production systems also warrant further study so that the longer term effects of climate variability and change can be better managed. Multidisciplinary research and interdisciplinary approaches to modelling will be required to apply knowledge both from individual crops to agricultural systems and from plot-scale research to regional food supply issues. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. 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RP Becken, S, Landcare Res, POB 69,Lincoln 8152, Canterbury, New Zealand. AB Tourism in island states is vulnerable to climate change because it may result in detrimental changes in relation to extreme events, sea level rise, transport and Communication interruption. This study analyses adaptation to climate change by tourist resorts in Fiji, as well as their potential to reduce climate change through reductions ill carbon dioxide emissions. Interviews, site visitations, and an accommodation survey were undertaken. Many operators already prepare for climate-related events and therefore adapt to potential impacts resulting from climate change. Reducing emissions is not important to operators; however, decreasing energy costs for economic reasons is practised. Recommendations for further initiatives are made and synergies between the adaptation and mitigation approaches are explored. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *DEP EN, 2003, EN STAT YB 1993 2000 *DEP ENV, 1994, FUJ NAT GREENH GAS I *IPCC, 2001, CLIM CHANG 2001 SYNT *MIN COMM, 1995, TECH GUID EST REP VO *MIN TOUR, 1998, FIJ TOUR DEV PLAN 19 *MIN TOUR, 2003, FIJ INT VIS SURV 202 *SOPAC, 2004, COPR OIL POW GEN TRA *UN ENV PROGR, 2003, SWITCH REN EN OPP TO *WORLD BANK, 2000, CITIES SEAS STORMS, V1 *WORLD TOUR ORG, 2003, P 1 INT C CLIM CHANG *WORLD TRAV TOUR C, 2001, TOUR SAT ACC RES AALBERSBERG WGL, 2003, GUIDE SETTING ENV SU AYALA H, 1995, TOURISM MANAGE, V16, P39 BAINES JT, 1993, NZ ENERGY INFORMATIO BECKEN S, 2001, ECOL ECON, V39, P371 BECKEN S, 2002, J SUSTAINABLE TOURIS, V10, P114 BECKEN S, 2004, CLIMATE CHANGE TOURI BEG N, 2002, CLIM POLICY, V2, P129 BURTON I, 2002, CLIM POLICY, V2, P145 CAMPBELL J, 2004, VISITOR ARRIVALS NEX CESAR H, 2003, WORLD WILDL FUND NAT DANG HH, 2003, CLIM POLICY, P81 DUBOIS G, 2003, CHANGEMENT CLIMATIQU, V72, P7 ELSASSER H, 2002, CLIMATE RES, V20, P253 FERESI J, 2000, CLIMATE CHANGE VULNE GOSSLING S, 2002, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V12, P283 HAMILTON JM, 2005, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V15, P253 HART P, 2004, 2 INT WORKSH CLIM TO HAY J, 2003, CLIMATE VARIABILITY HOEGHGULDBERG O, 2000, PACIFIC PERIL BIOL E JONES T, 2003, P 1 INT C CLIM CHANG LEVETT R, 2003, STRATEGEC ENV ASSESS MCINNES KL, 2000, IMPACT SEA LEVEL RIS NARAYAN PK, 2000, J TOURISM STUDIES, V11, P15 NARAYAN PK, 2003, FUJIS SUGAR TOURISM NICHOLLS RJ, 2004, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V14, P229 NUNN P, 1994, ASSESSMENT COASTAL V NUNN P, 2000, LINKING SCI POLICY, P59 RAKSAKULTHAI V, 2003, CLIMATE CHANGE IMPAC SALINGER MJ, 2000, LINKING SCI POLICY P, P67 SCOTT D, 2003, CLIMATE CHANGE TOURI SCOTT D, 2003, CLIMATE RES, V23, P171 SHROT D, 2004, P TOUR STAT ART 2 VINER D, 2003, P ESF LESC WORKSH MI WILBANKS TJ, 2003, CLIMATE POOLICY, P147 NR 45 TC 0 J9 GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANGE BP 381 EP 393 PY 2005 PD DEC VL 15 IS 4 GA 988TG UT ISI:000233623200009 ER PT J AU Wei, YM Fan, Y Lu, C Tsai, HT TI The assessment of vulnerability to natural disasters in China by using the DEA method SO ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT ASSESSMENT REVIEW LA English DT Article C1 Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Policy & Management, Beijing 100080, Peoples R China. RP Wei, YM, Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Policy & Management, Beijing 100080, Peoples R China. AB China has been greatly affected by natural disasters, so that it is of great importance to analyze the impact of natural disasters on national economy. Usually, the frequency of disasters or absolute loss inflicted by disasters is the first priority to be considered, while the capability of regions to overcome disasters is ignored. The concept of vulnerability is used to measure the capability to overcome disasters in different regions with distinctive economies. Traditional methods for vulnerability analysis calculate sub-indices based on disaster frequency, loss, the economic impact and the population of each region, and then add the sub-indices to get a composite index for regional vulnerability. But those methods are sensitive to the weights selected for sub-indices when multi-indexes are added up to get an index of total vulnerability. The analytic results are less convincing because of the subjectivity of different weighting methods. A data envelopment analysis (DEA)-based model for analysis of regional vulnerability to natural disasters is presented here to improve upon the traditional method. This paper systematically describes the DEA method to evaluate the relative severity of disasters in each region. A model for regional vulnerability analysis is developed, based on the annual governmental statistics from 1989 to 2000. The regional vulnerabilities in China's mainland are illustrated as a case study, and a new method for the classification of regional vulnerability to natural disasters in China is proposed. (C) 2004 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. CR *NAT BUR STAT CHIN, 1995, REP DAM CAUS DIS CHI *UNDRO, 1982, NAT DIS VULN AN *WFO, 1998, WFP VULN MAPP GUID ANDERSON MB, 1989, RISING ASHES DEV STR ANDERSON MB, 1995, DISASTER PREVENTION, P17 BECK S, 2000, ETHICS CIVILIZATION BLAIKIE PM, 1994, RISK NATURAL HAZARDS, V1, P1 CAI SM, 2001, DIASTER PREVENTION M, V10, P339 CHARNES A, 1978, EUROPEAN J OPERATION, V2, P429 CUTTER SL, 1996, PROG HUM GEOG, V20, P529 DOW KM, 1995, HUMAN DIMENSIONS Q, V1, P3 DOWNING TE, 1991, ASSESSING SOCIOECONO FAN YX, 2001, J CATASTROPHOLOGY, V16, P85 HEWITT K, 1983, INTERPRETATIONS CALA JIANG YJ, 2001, J CATASTROPHOLOGY, V16, P59 KING D, 2001, NAT HAZARDS, V24, P147 LIVERMAN DM, 1990, UNDERSTANDING GLOBAL, V1, P27 LU C, 2002, J NATURAL DISASTER, V11, P15 OKEEFE P, 1976, NATURE, V260, P566 OLGA VW, 2002, NAT HAZARDS, V25, P37 SHENG SH, 1996, THEORY METHOD APPL D SUSMAN P, 1983, INTERPRETATIONS CALA, P264 TIMMERMAN P, 1981, ENV MONOGRAPH, V1, P1 VOGEL CH, 1997, RISK RED SO AFR DIS WATTS MJ, 1993, PROG HUM GEOG, V17, P43 WEI Y, 2002, COMPUT IND ENG, V42, P283 WEICHSELGARTNER J, 2001, DISASTER PREVENTION, V2, P85 WEICHSELGARTNER J, 2002, ENV HAZARDS, P73 NR 28 TC 0 J9 ENVIRON IMPACT ASSESS REV BP 427 EP 439 PY 2004 PD MAY VL 24 IS 4 GA 837EK UT ISI:000222611000003 ER PT J AU BEATON, GH TI THE PEARL,RAYMOND MEMORIAL LECTURE, 1990 - NUTRITION RESEARCH IN HUMAN BIOLOGY - CHANGING PERSPECTIVES AND INTERPRETATIONS SO AMERICAN JOURNAL OF HUMAN BIOLOGY LA English DT Article RP BEATON, GH, UNIV TORONTO,FAC MED,DEPT NUTR SCI,TORONTO M5S 1A8,ONTARIO,CANADA. AB This paper addresses emerging concepts in the interpretation of anthropometric and dietary data. In the area of anthropometry, it argues the need for conceptualizations and constructs that recognize (1) the existence of a finite age range in which failing to grow is an active process followed by conversion to a state of having failed to grow; (2) the specific and nonspecific nature of anthropometric indices depending upon what is being marked; (3) the implication of secular trends in the interpretation of anthropometry; and (4) the need to move between consideration of individuals and populations. The implications of these for interpretation are illustrated. In the area of interpretation of dietary data, the main issues addressed relate to the conceptualization of needs of individuals and the aggregate needs of a population in the definition, description, and interpretation of "requirements." In both areas, the core issue is the need for constructs that help address and interpret variability-variability of growth, variability of environmental constraints, variability of intake, and variability of needs and responses. 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AB The EU Water Framework Directive (WFD) is novel because it integrates water quality, water resources, physical habitat and, to some extent, flooding for all surface and groundwaters and takes forward river basin management. However, the WFD does not explicitly mention risks posed by climate change to the achievement of its environmental objectives. This is despite the fact that the time scale for the implementation process and achieving particular objectives extends into the 2020s, when climate models project changes in average temperature and precipitation. This paper begins by reviewing the latest UK climate change scenarios and the wider policy and science context of the WFD. We then examine the potential risks of climate change to key phases of the River Basin Management Process that underpin the WFD (such as charactelisation of liver basins and their water bodies, risk assessments to identify pressures and impacts, programmes of measures (POMs) options appraisal, monitoring and modelling, policy and management activities). Despite these risks the WFD could link new policy and participative mechanisms (being established for the River Basin Management Plans) to the emerging framework of national and regional climate change adaptation policy. The risks are identified with a view to informing policy opportunities, objective setting, adaptation strategies and the research agenda. Key knowledge gaps have already been identified during the implementation of the WFD, such as the links between hydromorphology and ecosystem status, but the overarching importance of linking climate change to these considerations needs to be highlighted. The next generation of (probabilistic) climate change scenarios will present new opportunities and challenges for risk analysis and policy-making. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All lights reserved. 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RP Aplin, G, Macquarie Univ, Dept Human Geog, N Ryde, NSW 2109, Australia. AB There are three key factors to be considered in comprehensive environmental management: (a) integration across disciplines and interests; (b) flexibility and adaptability based on feedback; and (c) interactions between policy and implementation at different scales. Successful management is both integrated and inclusive, and also adaptive and flexible. It involves a synthesis of work, requiring empathy among contributors and active synthesis. Furthermore, there is a need for a dialectical consideration of processes acting at various scales. Geographers who are not too narrowly specialised have a key role to play, and, collectively, might have been more centrally involved in environmental management than they have been. 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RP Ulph, A, Univ Southampton, Southampton SO9 5NH, Hants, England. AB In this paper I address the question of how uncertainty about damage costs and the possibility of resolving that uncertainty in the future affects the incentives for countries to join an international environmental agreement. I use a two-period model with a stock pollutant where the number of countries generating pollution can be arbitrarily large. The stability concept employed is such that size of the stable IEA can be anywhere between 2 and the grand coalition of all countries depending on parameter values. The dynamic structure allows two different membership rules for an IEA: fixed ( countries commit at the outset to be members for both periods) or variable ( countries decide each period whether to join). I show that with fixed membership learning results in at least as high membership and global welfare as no learning ( unless both the expected value and variance of damage costs are high). With variable membership, learning leads to higher membership ( in the second period) but lower global welfare than no learning. For most parameter values variable membership results in higher global welfare than fixed membership. CR *IPCC, 2001, CLIM CHANG 2001 3 AS BARRETT S, 1994, OXFORD ECON PAP, V46, P878 BARRETT S, 2003, ENV STATECRAFT FINUS M, 2001, GAME THEORY INT ENV FISHER A, 2001, 908 U CAL BEK DEP AG FISHER AMH, 2001, UNPUB IRREVERSIBILIT GJERDE J, 1999, RESOUR ENERGY ECON, V21, P289 GRUBB M, 1995, ENERG POLICY, V23, P417 HELM C, 1998, ENVIRON RESOUR ECON, V12, P185 KARP L, 2000, REGULATING GLOBAL CL KARP L, 2001, UNPUB BAYESIAN LEARN KELLY DL, 1999, J ECON DYN CONTROL, V23, P491 KOLSTAD CD, 1996, J ENVIRON ECON MANAG, V31, P1 KOLSTAD CD, 2002, C RISK UNC ENV RES E MANNE A, 1992, BUYING GREENHOUSE IN NA S, 1998, OXFORD ECON PAP, V50, P173 NORDHAUS WD, 1997, ENERGY J, V18, P1 PECK SC, 1993, RESOUR ENERGY ECON, V15, P71 RUBIO S, 2002, 0209 U SOUTH DEP EC RUBIO S, 2002, 0210 U SOUTH DEP EC RUBIO S, 2002, 0211 U SOUTH DEP EC ULPH A, 1996, EC ATMOSPHERIC POLLU, P31 ULPH A, 1997, ECON J, V107, P636 ULPH A, 1997, ENVIRON RESOUR ECON, V9, P451 ULPH A, 1998, GAME THEORY GLOBAL E, P255 ULPH A, 2002, 0207 U SOUTH DEP EC ULPH A, 2002, 0208 U SOUTH DEP EC NR 27 TC 0 J9 J RISK UNCERTAINTY BP 53 EP 73 PY 2004 PD JUL VL 29 IS 1 GA 827YQ UT ISI:000221940000005 ER PT J AU Giansante, C Aguilar, M Babiano, L Garrido, A Gomez, A Iglesias, E Lise, W Moral, L Pedregal, B TI Institutional adaptation to changing risk of water scarcity in the Lower Guadalquivir Basin SO NATURAL RESOURCES JOURNAL LA English DT Article C1 Univ Seville, Fac Geog & Hist, Dept Human Geog, Seville, Spain. Univ Seville, Fac Geog & Hist, Dept Anthropol, Seville, Spain. Univ Politecn Madrid, ETS Ingn Agron, Dept Agr Econ, Madrid, Spain. Vrije Univ Amsterdam, IES, Amsterdam, Netherlands. RP Giansante, C, Univ Seville, Fac Geog & Hist, Dept Human Geog, Seville, Spain. AB Historically, the Spanish water management model's predominant goal has been resource augmentation. This mindset has had important consequences for the system's capacity to cope with droughts. It has impacted the system's overall vulnerability, the discourse of scarcity, the conceptualisation of risk, and the stakeholders' interests and their approach to risk. The aim of this article is to present the traditional hydraulic paradigm, and its current crisis and implications for present and future risk management, and to explore stakeholder and institutional reactions and adaptation to changing risk scenarios. The adaptation process will be framed within the wider context of macro-trends, such as marketisation and re-scaling of institutions and global warming. 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NIH, Bethesda, MD 20892 USA. Temple Univ, Dept Anthropol, Philadelphia, PA 19122 USA. RP Garruto, RM, SUNY Binghamton, Dept Anthropol, Sci 1,Room 113,POB 6000, Binghamton, NY 13902 USA. AB With the dramatic pace of modernization of the world's population, human adaptation as a theoretical construct and paradigm will likely become a focal scientific issue involving scientists from many disciplinary areas during the 21st Century. Macro and micro environments are in rapid flux and human populations are exposed to rapid change. The concept of adaptation, at least in the field of biological anthropology and human biology, will likely remain tied to evolutionary processes and concepts of selection and fitness. In this paper, we discuss the theoretical constructs of adaptation and adaptability and select three current examples from our ongoing research that involve studies of adaptation and evolutionary processes in modernizing populations in different locations worldwide. 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Hanemann, WM Herrod-Julius, S TI Integrating a climate change assessment tool into stakeholder-driven water management decision-making processes in California SO WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article C1 Stockholm Environm Inst, Stockholm, Sweden. Int Food Policy Res Inst, Washington, DC 20036 USA. Natl Ctr Atmospher Res, Boulder, CO 80307 USA. Univ Calif Berkeley, Berkeley, CA 94720 USA. US EPA, Washington, DC 20460 USA. RP Purkey, DR, Stockholm Environm Inst, Stockholm, Sweden. AB There is an emerging consensus in the scientific community that climate change has the potential to significantly alter prevailing hydrologic patterns in California over the course of the 21st Century. This is of profound importance for a system where large investments have been made in hydraulic infrastructure that has been designed and is operated to harmonize dramatic temporal and spatial water supply and water demand variability. Recent work by the authors led to the creation of an integrated hydrology/water management climate change impact assessment framework that can be used to identify tradeoffs between important ecosystem services provided by the California water system associated with future climate change and to evaluate possible adaptation strategies. In spite of the potential impact of climate change, and the availability of a tool for investigating its dimensions, actual water management decision-making processes in California have yet to fully integrate climate change analysis into their planning dialogues. This paper presents an overview of decision-making processes ranked based on the application of a 3S: Sensitivity, Significance, and Stakeholder support, standard, which demonstrates that while climate change is a crucial factor in virtually all water-related decision making in California, it has not typically been considered, at least in any analytical sense. The three highest ranked processes are described in more detail, in particular the role that the new analytical framework could play in arriving at more resilient water management decisions. The authors will engage with stakeholders in these three processes, in hope of moving climate change research from the academic to the policy making arena. 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RP Pamo, ET, Univ Dschang, FASA, Dept Anim Sci, POB 222, Dschang, Cameroon. AB In a broad sense, land degradation in pastoral ecosystems leads to a reduction in primary vegetative yield and thus desertification, resulting in a major imbalance between animals and rangeland. Nomadism and transhumance are the two major livestock production systems of northern Cameroon. These production systems were relatively well adapted to the fluctuating sub-Sahelian environment of the region until 1979, when Maga Dam was built to store water for a rice irrigation project. This dam now prevents the normal flooding of dry season grazing land for livestock and wildlife and has induced large-scale desertification. Investigations in the region found that wildlife and pastoralists have adjusted to the new conditions. Besides herd diversification, which is an ecological as well as an economic-based strategy, herders implemented resource exploitation mobility in response to unpredictable forage and water availability. Pastoralists and wildlife equally developed escape mobility involving long-distance migration to elude the combined effect of range degradation and decreased rainfall. All these strategies were implemented as an adaptation mechanism against desertification. Although these strategies may have reduced the scope of livestock and wildlife mortality in the region, they have seriously affected the economy and increased the difficulties of the pastoralist way of life. (C)1998 Academic Press Limited. 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Univ Massachusetts, Dept Nat Resources Conservat, Amherst, MA 01003 USA. Univ Alaska, Inst Arct Biol, Fairbanks, AK 99775 USA. RP Berman, M, Univ Alaska, Inst Social & Econ Res, 3211 Providence Dr, Anchorage, AK 99508 USA. AB Climate warming and resource development could alter key Arctic ecosystem functions that support fish and wildlife resources harvested by local indigenous communities. A different set of global forces-government policies and tourism markets-increasingly directs local cash economies that communities use to support subsistence activities. Agent-based computational models (ABMs) contribute to an integrated assessment of community sustainability by simulating how people interact with each other and adapt to changing economic and environmental conditions. Relying on research and local knowledge to provide rules and parameters for individual and collective decision making, our ABM generates hypothetical social histories as adaptations to scenario-driven changes in environmental and economic conditions. The model generates projections for wage employment, cash income, subsistence harvests, and demographic change over four decades based on a set of user-defined scenarios for climate change, subsistence resources, development, and government spending. Model outcomes assess how scenarios associated with economic and climate change might affect the local economy, resource harvests, and the well-being of residents for the Western Arctic Canadian community of Old Crow, Yukon. The economic and demographic outcomes suggest implications for less quantifiable social and cultural changes. The model can serve as a discussion tool for a fuller exploration of community sustainability and adaptation issues. CR *PORC CAR CO M BOA, 2002, ANN REP *YUK 1 NAT HARV, 1988, UNPUB SURV DAT AV FR ACHESON AW, 1981, HDB N AM INDIANS, V6, P694 AXELROD R, 1997, COMPLEXITY COOPERATI AXTELL RL, 2002, P NATL ACAD SCI U S3, V99, P7275 BERKES F, 1998, LINKING SOCIAL ECOLO, V1, P1 BERKES F, 2003, NAVIGATING SOCIAL EC, V1, P1 BERMAN M, 2004, ECOL ECON, V49, P31 BERMAN MD, 1998, 37 ANN M W REGIONAL CARPENTER SR, 1999, CONSERV ECOL, V3, P1 COHEN SJ, 1997, ARCTIC, V50, P293 EAMER J, 1997, CANADA COUNTRY STUDY, V1 EASTLAND WG, 1991, THESIS U ALASKA FAIR EPSTEIN JM, 1996, GROWING ARTIFICIAL S FANCY SG, 1989, CAN J ZOOL, V67, P644 FOTIOU S, 2002, TOURISM HOSPITALITY, V4, P79 GARROD B, 2003, J ECOTOURISM, V2, P33 GILBERT N, 1995, ARTIFICIAL SOC COMPU GRIFFITH B, 2002, BSR20020001 USGS BRD, P8 GUNDERSON LH, 1995, BARRIERS BRIDGES REN, V1, P1 HAMILTON LC, 1994, ARCTIC ANTHROPOL, V31, P16 HOLLAND J, 1992, ADAPTATION NATURAL A HUSKEY L, 2004, ANN REGIONAL SCI, V38, P75 IRVING L, 1958, ARCTIC, V11, P117 KOFINAS GP, 1993, MAKING WAVES, V4, P10 KOFINAS GP, 1998, THESIS U BRIT COLUMB KOFINAS GP, 2002, EARTH FASTER INDIGEN, P54 KOFINAS GP, 2003, UNPUB LOCAL KNOWLEDG KOFINAS GP, 2004, CARIBOU HARVESTING S KOFINAS GP, 2004, LOCAL CARIBOU AVAILA KOHLER T, 2000, DYNAMICS HUMAN PRIMA KRUPNIK I, 2002, EARTH FASTER NOW IND KRUSE JA, IN PRESS ASSESSING S KRUSE JA, 1992, ALASKA N SLOPE INUPI LANGDON SJ, 1991, SENRI ETHNOLOGICAL S, V30, P269 MARTIN S, 2004, OLD CROW DEV SCENARI MORLAN RE, 1977, EARLY MAN AM CIRCUM, P78 NICOLSON CR, 1999, INTEGRATED CARIBOU M NUTTALL M, 1998, PROTECTING ARCTIC IN ORAMS M, 2001, ENCY ECOTOURISM, P23 ORAMS M, 2002, INT J SUST DEV WORLD, V5, P338 PETERSON DL, 1995, HUMAN EC CLIMATE CHA RUSSELL DE, 1970, TECHNICAL REPORT SER, V139 RUSSELL DE, 1993, RANGIFER SPECIAL ISS, V6, P168 STAGER JK, 1974, 7421 TASK FORC N OIL, P232 USHER PJ, 2003, SOC INDIC RES, V61, P175 VINCENT VC, 2002, J TRAVEL RES, V41, P153 WEAVER D, 2002, INT J SUST DEV WORLD, V5, P251 WHITE R, 1999, 10 ARCT UNG C 9 12 A, V1 ZHANG XB, 2000, ATMOS OCEAN, V38, P395 NR 50 TC 0 J9 ARCTIC BP 401 EP 414 PY 2004 PD DEC VL 57 IS 4 GA 880NA UT ISI:000225795300008 ER PT J AU Scheraga, JD Grambsch, AE TI Risks, opportunities, and adaptation to climate change SO CLIMATE RESEARCH LA English DT Article C1 US EPA, Washington, DC 20460 USA. RP Scheraga, JD, US EPA, Mail Code 8601-D,401 M St SW, Washington, DC 20460 USA. AB Adaptation is an important approach for protecting human health, ecosystems, and economic systems from the risks posed by climate variability and change, and for exploiting beneficial opportunities provided by a changing climate. This paper presents 9 fundamental principles that should be considered when designing adaptation policy, for example, a sound understanding of the potential regional effects of climate on human and ecological systems is required to target appropriate investments in adaptive responses. The distribution of potential impacts across different populations and the mechanisms by which these impacts occur are also key to effective adaptation measures. Options for coping with climatic changes must be considered in the context of multiple stressors. Further, adaptation is likely to exhibit varying levels of effectiveness as demonstrated by current efforts to deal with climate variability. Potential adverse side effects of adaptive strategies must also be accounted for to avoid solutions that are worse than the problem. These issues and others are presented in this paper, with examples from various impacts studies to illustrate key points. CR *CDCP, 1988, MMWR-MORBID MORTAL W, V47, P473 *CDCP, 1995, MMWR-MORBID MORTAL W, V44, P577 *IPCC, 1996, IPCC 2 ASS CLIM CHAN, P3 *NAS, 1992, POL IMPL GREENH WARM *NOAA, 1995, JUL 1995 HEAT WAV NA *OTA, 1993, PREP UNC CLIM *US DEP INT NAT SU, 1997, HUNT WILDL ASS RECR *US EPA, 1989, POT EFF GLOB CLIM CH *US EPA, 1995, 220R95004 EPA *US EPA, 1995, 230R95008 EPA ADAMS RM, 1995, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V30, P147 ADAMS RM, 1995, EC EFFECTS CLIMATE C BIJLSMA L, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, P289 BLUM LN, 1998, JAMA-J AM MED ASSOC, V279, P1514 BUECHLEY RW, 1972, ENVIRON RES, V5, P85 CHESTNUT LG, 1998, ENV SCI POLICY, V1, P59 EATON JG, 1995, FISHERIES, V20, P10 EVERETT JT, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, P511 HOUGHTON JT, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, P1 JONES PD, 1994, J CLIMATE, V7, P1794 KALKSTEIN LS, 1993, EXPERIENTIA, V49, P469 KALKSTEIN LS, 1997, ENVIRON HEALTH PERSP, V105, P84 KARL TR, 1996, B AM METEOROL SOC, V77, P279 KILBOURNE EM, 1982, JAMA-J AM MED ASSOC, V247, P3332 MAHLMAN JD, 1997, SCIENCE, V278, P1416 MANABE S, 1987, J ATMOS SCI, V44, P1211 MCMICHAEL AJ, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE HUMAN NASHOLD R, 1996, MMWR-MORBID MORTAL W, V45, P505 OKE TR, 1973, ATMOS ENVIRON, V7, P769 PARKER DE, 1995, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V31, P559 PARRY ML, 1998, CLIMATE IMPACT ADAPT REILLY JM, 1994, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V4, P24 REILLY JM, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, P427 ROSENZWEIG C, 1995, CLIMATE CHANGES INT, P27 SCHERAGA JD, 1998, ADAPTING CLIMATE CHA, P40 SEMENZA JC, 1996, NEW ENGL J MED, V335, P84 SHRINER DS, 1997, REGIONAL IMPACTS CLI, P253 SMITH JB, 1995, CLIMATE CHANGES INT, P201 SMITH JB, 1996, CLIMATE RES, V6, P193 SMITH JB, 1997, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V7, P251 TITUS JG, 1986, COAST ZONE MANAGE J, V14, P147 TITUS JG, 1991, COAST MANAGE, V19, P171 TITUS JG, 1998, MARYLAND LAW REV, V57, P1279 TOL RSJ, 1998, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V8, P109 WATSON RT, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, V1, P1 WATSON RT, 1998, REGIONAL IMPACTS CLI, V1, P1 NR 46 TC 1 J9 CLIMATE RES BP 85 EP 95 PY 1998 PD DEC 17 VL 11 IS 1 GA 168YF UT ISI:000078720200009 ER PT J AU Turner, MD TI Political ecology and the moral dimensions of "resource conflicts": the case of farmer-herder conflicts in the Sahel SO POLITICAL GEOGRAPHY LA English DT Article C1 Univ Wisconsin, Dept Geog, Madison, WI 53706 USA. RP Turner, MD, Univ Wisconsin, Dept Geog, 384 Sch Hall,550 Pk St, Madison, WI 53706 USA. AB Conflicts associated with natural resource use are common in rural areas of Africa. Political ecology's analytical and methodological foci on these conflicts is shared by other quite different schools of thought that strongly influence policies on environment and development. The influential "environmental security" and "common property management" perspectives generally conceptualize resource-related conflicts as scarcity-driven while political ecologists have made major contributions toward more multidimensional, complex views about the genesis of resource-related conflict. This paper explores two moral dimensions of resource conflict. First, it continues the tradition within political ecology of questioning popular notions of resource conflict. It does so by analyzing farmer-herder conflict in the Sahel-a type of resource-related conflict that seemingly fits the view that conflict is generated from increased competition over a dwindling pool of resources. By seriously engaging with the materiality of agropastoral production, this paper illuminates the complex relationships between political interests, moralities, and resource access that underlie these conflicts. Second, this paper considers the ethics of how we portray resource conflict. In the present policy context in Africa, overly-simplistic treatments of resource conflict by political ecologists or others may unintentionally support programs that are likely to negatively impact the human subjects of research, conservation or development. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *RES INV MAN LTD, 1987, REF SAH *WORLD BANK AFR DI, 1991, POP AGR ENV NEX SUBS BA AH, 1984, EMPIRE P DUMACINA 18 BARRIERE O, 2002, DROIT INVENTER BASSETT TJ, 1988, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V78, P433 BASSETT TJ, 1994, CAH ETUD AFR, V34, P147 BEAUVILAIN A, 1977, PEUL DALLOL BOSSO BENNETT O, 1991, GREENWAR ENV CONFLIC BENOIT M, 1999, ESPACE POPULATIONS S, V1, P29 BERNUS E, 1974, CAHIERS ORSTOM SH, V11, P119 BERRY S, 1989, AFRICA, V59, P41 BIERSCHENK T, 1997, HUM ORGAN, V56, P238 BLAIKIE P, 1987, LAND DEGRADATION SOC BLENCH RM, 1996, NATURAL RESOURCE PER, V15, P1 BREUSERS M, 1998, J MOD AFR STUD, V36, P357 BROAD R, 1994, WORLD DEV, V22, P811 BROWN WA, 1969, THESIS U WISCONSIN M BRYANT RL, 1996, 3 WORLD POLITICAL EC CARNEY JA, 1992, DEV CHANGE, V23, P67 CISSE S, 1990, 1 CTR RECH AGR CRONON W, 1983, CHANGES LAND DALBY S, 1996, ECUMENE, V3, P472 DUPIRE M, 1972, FACTEURS HUMAINS EC ENSMINGER J, 1992, MAKING MARKET I TRAN ESCOBAR A, 1999, CURR ANTHROPOL, V40, P1 FAIRHEAD J, 2001, VIOLENT ENV, P213 FALLOUX F, 1983, PROBLEMES FONCIERS D FALLOUX F, 1988, DESERTIFICATION CONT, P10 FERGUSON J, 1994, ANTIPOLITICS MACHINE GADO B, 1980, ZARMATAREY CONTRIBUT GALLAIS J, 1967, DELTA INTERIEUR NIGE GALLAIS J, 1972, ETUDES GEOGRAPHIE TR, P301 GOLDMAN M, 1998, PRIVATIZING NATURE P GRAYZEL JA, 1977, THESIS U OREGON EUGE HABOU A, 1991, TRANSFERT CAPITAL BE HARDIN G, 1968, SCIENCE, V162, P1243 HARDIN G, 1991, COMMONS TRAGEDY, P162 HEASLEY L, 1996, SOC NATUR RESOUR, V9, P31 HENDRICKSON D, 1997, SUPPORTING LOCAL CAP HOBSBAWN E, 1983, INVENTION TRADITION HOMERDIXON TF, 1994, INT SECURITY, V19, P5 HOMERDIXON TF, 1999, ENV SCARCITY VIOLENC HOROWITZ MM, 1972, J ASIAN AFR STUD, V7, P105 HUSSEIN K, 1999, DEV POLICY REV, V17, P397 KAPLAN RD, 1994, ATLANTIC MONTHLY FEB, P44 KINTZ D, 1985, J AFRICANISTES, V55, P93 LAYA D, 1991, J SOC AFRICANISTS, V61, P65 LEACH M, 1999, WORLD DEV, V27, P225 LELE SM, 1991, WORLD DEV, V19, P607 LEM FH, 1943, TERRE ISLAM, P51 LOYANCE A, 1947, NOTES PEULS GOURMANT MARTIN RE, 1993, SHORT COURSES PALEON, V6, P34 MCCAY BM, 1987, QUESTION COMMONS MELVILLE EGK, 1994, PLAGUE SHEEP ENV CON MOORE DS, 1993, ECON GEOGR, V69, P380 MYERS N, 1996, ULTIMATE SECURITY EN NEUMANN RP, 1998, IMPOSING WILDERNESS NGAIDO T, 1996, THESIS U WISCONSIN M NIAMIRFULLER M, 1999, MANAGING MOBILITY AF OAKERSON RJ, 1992, MAKING COMMONS WORK, P41 OSTROM E, 1990, GOVT COMMONS EVOLUTI PAINTER T, 1994, AFRICA, V64, P447 PARKER R, 1991, J MOD AFR STUD, V29, P155 PEET R, 1996, LIBERATION ECOLOGIES PELUSO N, 1990, RICH FORESTS POOR PE PELUSO NL, 2001, VIOLENT ENV PELUSO NL, 2001, VIOLENT ENV, P3 PERCIVAL V, 1998, ECOVIOLENCE LINKS EN, P109 PETERS P, 1987, QUESTION COMMONS CUL, P171 POWELL JM, 1996, AGR SYST, V52, P143 RAPPAPORT RA, 1967, PIGS ANCESTORS RITUA, V1, P1 RIBOT JC, 1998, DEV CHANGE, V29, P307 RIDDELL JC, 1982, 77 LAND TEN CTR RIESMAN P, 1977, FREEDOM FULANI SOCIA ROBBINS P, 2003, HUM ECOL, V31, P233 ROCHELEAU D, 1996, FEMINIST POLITICAL E RUNGE CF, 1986, WORLD DEV, V14, P623 SANTOIR C, 1990, CAHIERS SCI HUMAINES, V26, P553 SCHMITZ J, 1993, CAH SCI HUM, V29, P591 SCHROEDER RA, 1999, SHADY PRACTICES AGRO SIMPSON JR, 1984, AFR STUD REV, V27, P61 SINCLAIR ARE, 1985, CAN J ZOOL, V63, P987 STOTT P, 2000, POLITICAL ECOLOGY SC TAYLOR PJ, 1997, SOCIAL EPISTEMOLOGY, V11, P111 THOMPSON EP, 1991, CUSTOMS COMMON TOULMIN C, 1983, HERDERS FARMERS FARM TURNER MD, IN PRESS FORESTS FIE TURNER MD, 1992, THESIS U CALIFORNIA TURNER MD, 1999, LAND DEGRAD DEV, V10, P343 TURNER MD, 1999, SOC NATUR RESOUR, V12, P643 VANDENBRINK R, 1995, J DEV STUD, V31, P373 VANDRIEL A, 1997, AGR ELEVEURS NORD BE, P127 WALKER PA, 2001, SOC NATUR RESOUR, V14, P411 WARNER M, 1998, NATURAL RESOURCE PER, V35 WATTS MJ, 1983, SILENT VIOLENCE FOOD WHITE F, 1983, VEGETATION AFRICA ZERNER C, 1996, VALUING LOCAL KNOWLE, P68 ZIMMERER KS, 1993, ECON GEOGR, V69, P312 ZIMMERER KS, 2003, POLITICAL ECOLOGY IN ZUPPAN M, 1994, RURAL EXT B, V4, P12 NR 100 TC 3 J9 POLIT GEOGR BP 863 EP 889 PY 2004 PD SEP VL 23 IS 7 GA 875LU UT ISI:000225422600004 ER PT J AU van Aalst, MK TI The impacts of climate change on the risk of natural disasters SO DISASTERS LA English DT Article C1 Red Cross Red Crescent Ctr Climate Change & Disas, NL-2502 KC The Hague, Netherlands. RP van Aalst, MK, Red Cross Red Crescent Ctr Climate Change & Disas, POB 28120, NL-2502 KC The Hague, Netherlands. AB Human emissions of greenhouse gases are already changing our climate. This paper provides an overview of the relation between climate change and weather extremes, and examines three specific cases where recent acute events have stimulated debate on the potential role of climate change: the European heatwave of 2003; the risk of inland flooding, such as recently in Central Europe and Great Britain; and the harsh Atlantic hurricane seasons of 2004 and 2005. Furthermore, it briefly assesses the relation between climate change and El Nino, and the potential of abrupt climate change. Several trends in weather extremes are sufficiently clear to inform risk reduction efforts. In many instances, however, the potential increases in extreme events due to climate change come on top of alarming rises in vulnerability. Hence, the additional risks due to climate change should not be analysed or treated in isolation, but instead integrated into broader efforts to reduce the risk of natural disasters. CR *IFRC, 2004, WORLD DIS REP 2004, P36 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 *IPCC, 2001, CLIM CHANG 2001 MIT *IPCC, 2001, CLIM CHANG 2001 SCI *IPCC, 2001, CLIM CHANG 2001 SCI, P1 *IPCC, 2001, CLIM CHANG 2001 SYNT *IRI, 2005, ENSO INF *NAT CLIM DAT CTR, 2004, CLIM 2004 ATL HURR S *NAT CLIM DAT CTR, 2005, CLIM 2005 ATL HURR S *WMO, 2004, WMO STAT GLOB CLIM 2 EMANUEL K, 2005, NATURE, V436, P686 GRAUMANN A, 2005, HURRICANE KATRINA CL MARSH TJ, 2001, WEATHER, V56, P343 MUDELSEE M, 2003, NATURE, V425, P166 PALMER TN, 2002, NATURE, V415, P512 PIELKE RA, 2005, B AM METEOROL SOC, V86, P1571 SPONBERG K, 1999, COMPENDIUM CLIMATE V STOTT PA, 2004, NATURE, V432, P610 TRENBERTH K, 2005, SCIENCE, V308, P1753 VANOLDENBORGH GJ, 2005, OCEAN SCI, V1, P81 WEBSTER PJ, 2005, SCIENCE, V309, P1844 NR 21 TC 0 J9 DISASTERS BP 5 EP 18 PY 2006 PD MAR VL 30 IS 1 GA 017LA UT ISI:000235693900002 ER PT J AU Swart, RJ Mitchell, J Morita, T Raper, S TI Stabilisation scenarios for climate impact assessment SO GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS LA English DT Editorial Material C1 Natl Inst Publ Hlth & Environm, NL-3720 BA Bilthoven, Netherlands. RP Swart, RJ, Natl Inst Publ Hlth & Environm, POB 1, NL-3720 BA Bilthoven, Netherlands. CR *IPCC, 2000, SPEC REP EM SCEN MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 *IPCC, 2001, CLIM CHANG 2001 MIT *IPCC, 2001, CLIM CHANG 2001 SCI *IPCC, 2001, CLIM CHANG 2001 SYNT PARRY ML, 2001, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V11, P1 NR 6 TC 3 J9 GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANGE BP 155 EP 165 PY 2002 PD OCT VL 12 IS 3 GA 612KX UT ISI:000179075400002 ER PT J AU Rosenzweig, C Strzepek, KM Major, DC Iglesias, A Yates, DN McCluskey, A Hillel, D TI Water resources for agriculture in a changing climate: international case studies SO GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS LA English DT Article C1 NASA, Goddard Inst Space Studies, New York, NY 10025 USA. Univ Colorado, Boulder, CO 80309 USA. Columbia Univ, Ctr Climate Syst Res, New York, NY 10025 USA. Natl Ctr Atmospher Res, Boulder, CO 80307 USA. RP Rosenzweig, C, NASA, Goddard Inst Space Studies, 2880 Broadway, New York, NY 10025 USA. AB This integrated study examines the implications of changes im crop water demand and water availability for the reliability of irrigation. taking into account changes in competing municipal and industrial demands, and explore the effectiveness of adaptation options in maintaining reliability. It reports on methods of linking climate change scenarios with hydrologic, agricultural. and planning models to study later availability for agriculture under changing climate conditions, to estimate changes in ecosystem services. and to evaluate adaptation strategies for the water resources and agriculture sectors. The models are applied to major agricultural regions in Argentina, Brazil, China, Hungary, Romania, and the US, using projections of climate change, agricultural production. population. technology, and GDP growth. For most of the relatively water-rich areas studied, there appears to be sufficient water for agriculture given the climate change scenarios tested. Northeastern China suffers from the greatest lack of water availability for agriculture and ecosystem services both in the present and in the climate change projections. Projected runoff in the Danube Basin does not change substantially, although climate change causes shifts in environmental stresses within the region. Northern Argentina's occasional problems in water-supply for agriculture under the current climate may be exacerbated and may require investments to relieve future tributary stress. In Southeastern Brazil. future water supply for agriculture appears to be plentiful. Water supply in most of the US Cornbelt is projected to increase in most climate change scenarios. but there is concern for tractability in the spring and water-logging in the summer. Adaptation tests imply that only file Brazil case study area can readily accommodate an expansion of irrigated land under climate change. while the other three areas would suffer decreases in system reliability if irrigation areas were to be expanded. Cultivars are available for agricultural adaptation to file projected changes, but their demand for water may be higher than currently adapted varieties. Thus, even in these relatively water-rich areas, changes in water demand due to climate change effects on agriculture and increased demand from urban growth will require timely improvements in crop cultivars, irrigation and drainage technology. and water management. Published by Elsevier Ltd. CR *CROPWAT, 1995, 46 CROPWAT *FOOD AGR ORG UN, 1998, AGR DAT *INT BENCHM SIT NE, 1989, DEC SUPP SYST AGR TR *INT PAN CLIM CHAN, 2001, CLIM CHANG 2001 IMP *INT PAN CLIM CHAN, 2001, CLIM CHANG 2001 SCI *INT PAN CLIM CHAN, 2001, CLIM CHANG *NETH CENTR PLANN, 1992, SCANN FUT LONG TERM *STOCKH ENV I, 1997, WEAP WAT EV PLANN SY *UN, 1996, DEP EC SOC INF POL A *US ARM CORPS ENG, 1994, ACC WAT SUPPL DEM AP *US BUR RECL, 1999, SAMS STAT PACK MS WI *USDA, 1999, NAT AGR STAT SERV CUBASCH U, 1992, CLIM DYNAM, V8, P55 FLATO GM, 2001, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V28, P195 GLEICK PH, 1999, J AM WATER RESOUR AS, V35, P1429 HANSEN J, 1984, CLIMATE PROCESSES CL, P130 HULME M, 1999, NATURE, V397, P688 JOHNS TC, 1997, CLIM DYNAM, V13, P103 JONES CA, 1986, CERES SIMULATION MOD JONES JW, 1988, FLORIDA AGR EXP STA, V8304 KACZMAREK Z, 1993, ACTA GEOPHYS POL, V41, P1 LOBELL DB, 2003, SCIENCE, V299, P1032 MAJOR DC, 1990, LARGE SCALE REGIONAL, V7 MANABE S, 1992, J CLIMATE, V5, P105 MITCHELL JFB, 1995, NATURE, V376, P501 NAKICENOVIC N, 2000, EMISSIONS SCENARIOS PEART RM, 1989, POTENTIAL EFFECTS GL PRIESTLEY CHB, 1972, MON WEATHER REV, V100, P81 RASKIN P, 1997, COMPREHENSIVE ASSESS RICHARDSON CW, 1984, ARS8 USDA ARS RITCHIE JT, 1972, WATER RESOUR RES, V8, P1204 ROSENZWEIG C, 1994, 230B94003 US EPA ROSENZWEIG C, 1994, NATURE, V367, P133 ROSENZWEIG C, 2002, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V12, P197 SIEBER J, 2002, WEAP WATER EVALUATIO STONE MC, 2001, J AM WATER RESOUR AS, V37, P1119 STRZEPEK K, 1995, CLIMATE CHANGES INT, P180 STRZEPEK KM, 1999, J AM WATER RESOUR AS, V35, P1639 YATES D, 1996, WATER RESOUR DEV, V12, P121 NR 39 TC 0 J9 GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANGE BP 345 EP 360 PY 2004 PD DEC VL 14 IS 4 GA 897NL UT ISI:000227010900006 ER PT J AU Huq, S Reid, H TI Mainstreaming adaptation in development SO IDS BULLETIN-INSTITUTE OF DEVELOPMENT STUDIES LA English DT Article AB There are two main policy responses to climate: prevention of climate change (mitigation) through reducing emissions and coping with its effects (adaptation). Mitigation has been given more priority in climate negotiations to date. Because the impacts of climate change are likely to increase in the coming years and there is growing realisation that vulnerable countries and communities will be disproportionately adversely affected, much more attention is now being paid to adaptation than was previously the case, particularly by development organisations. Defining climate change and adaptation carefully is critical to ensuring the success of actions promoting how adaptation can be mainstreamed in development. Narrow definitions of climate change, which ignore climate variability and donor focus on looking at the "global environmental benefits" of adaptation will mean that the adaptation needs of the most vulnerable will not be met. CR MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 *UNDP, 2003, AD POL FRAM *UNFCC, 2001, FCCCCP200113, P1 ADGER WN, 2005, UNPUB FAIRNESS ADAPT HUQ S, 2002, CLIM POLICY, V2, P243 HUQ S, 2003, MAINSTREAMING ADAPTA HUQ S, 2003, SUSTAINABLE DEV OPIN REID H, 2004, ADAPTATION DAY COP 9 SPERLING F, 2003, POVERTY CLIMATE CHAN NR 9 TC 0 J9 IDS BULL-INST DEVELOP STUD BP 15 EP + PY 2004 PD JUL VL 35 IS 3 GA 844HK UT ISI:000223148700003 ER PT J AU Lautze, J Reeves, M Vega, R Kirshen, PH TI Water allocation, climate change, and sustainable peace - The Israeli proposal SO WATER INTERNATIONAL LA English DT Article C1 Tufts Univ, Medford, MA 02155 USA. RP Lautze, J, Tufts Univ, Medford, MA 02155 USA. AB Israeli-Palestinian joint water management strategies fail to account for increased water demand caused by increasing populations and potential decreases in water availability due to climate change. This study examines the impacts of population growth and climate change on the water supplies of Israelis and Palestinians under "business-as-usual" conditions as well as under the Israeli-proposed water resources division discussed in meetings parallel to those at Camp David in 2000. The analysis establishes renewable water resources by source in Israel/Palestine and presents the current sectoral trends in water consumption. From this baseline, eight scenarios are developed that describe conditions in 2000 and 2025. Several indicators are used to measure the positive and negative effects of these conditions. The indicators show that population growth and climate change will negate many of the benefits of the water resources division proposed in 2000. Furthermore, the indicators reveal extreme water resources stress among Palestinians as well as potential environmental degradation as climate change depletes natural water supplies. CR *BLAUST I DES RES, 2000, ISR NAT REP UNFCCC I *CIA, 2002, WORLD FACTB MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 *ISR MIN ENV, 1999, WAST TREATM INF SHEE *ISR MIN NAT INFR, 2002, ISR WAT EC *UN NAT, 2002, WORLD POP PROSP *USAID, 2003, WAT RES DEV MOR ACC *WORLD BANK, 2000, URB WAT SAN MIDDL E *WORLD BANK, 2002, LONG TERM POL OPT PA ALPHER Y, 2002, BITTER LEMONS 0708 ALPHER Y, 2002, BITTER LEMONS 0805 ALSAED R, 2000, P TECHN EXP CONS APP AMERY HA, 2000, WATER MIDDLE E GEOGR BERLAND A, 2000, WATER COMPONENT PEAC BOUZEID E, 2002, J WATER RESOURCE SEP, P343 BROOKS DB, 2000, WATER BALANCES E MED FRIEDMAN TL, 2003, NY TIMES 0115, P21 HAMMOND A, 1998, WHICH WORLD SCENARIO KARTIN A, 2000, POLIT GEOGR, V19, P97 KHATIB G, 2002, BITTER LEMON 0527 LONERGAN S, 1994, WATERSHED ROLE FRESH NASHASHIBI M, 1995, WATER SCI TECHNOL, V32, P65 RIEDEL B, 2002, BITTER LEMONS 0715 ROUYER A, 2000, TURNING WATER POLITI SHAMIR U, 2003, WATER AGREEMENTS ISR SHEHADEH R, 2002, BITTER LEMONS 0805 SHIKLOMANOV I, 1999, WORLD WATER RESOURCE SUSSER A, 2002, BITTER LEMONS 0708 VOROSMARTY, 2000, SCIENCE, V289, P14 WEINTHAL E, 2002, WATER INT, V27, P460 WOLF AT, 1995, HYDROPOLITICS JORDAN NR 31 TC 0 J9 WATER INT BP 197 EP 209 PY 2005 PD JUN VL 30 IS 2 GA 002NT UT ISI:000234618900008 ER PT J AU Krol, MS Bronstert, A TI Regional integrated modelling of climate change impacts on natural resources and resource usage in semi-arid Northeast Brazil SO ENVIRONMENTAL MODELLING & SOFTWARE LA English DT Article C1 Univ Twente, Dept Water Engn & Management, NL-7500 AE Enschede, Netherlands. Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res, D-14412 Potsdam, Germany. Univ Potsdam, Dept Hydrol & Climatol, D-14415 Potsdam, Germany. RP Krol, MS, Univ Twente, Dept Water Engn & Management, POB 217, NL-7500 AE Enschede, Netherlands. AB Semi-arid regions are characterised by a high vulnerability of natural resources to climate change, pronounced climatic variability and often by water scarcity and related social stress. The analysis of the dynamics of natural conditions and the assessment of possible strategies to cope with drought-related problems require an integration of diverse knowledge including climatology, hydrology, and socio-economics. The integrated model introduced here dynamically describes the relationships between climate forcing, water availability, agriculture and selected societal processes. The model has been designed to simulate the complex human-environment system in semi-arid Northeast Brazil quantitatively and is applied to study the sensitivity of regional natural resources and socio-economy to climate change. The validity of the model is considered. Climate change is concluded to have an enormous potential impact on the region. River flow, water storage and irrigated production are specifically affected, assuming a continuous regional development and unfavourable but plausible changes in climate. Under plausible favourable changes in climate, these variables remain stressed. The impact of the integrated model and its applications on present policy making and possible future roles are briefly discussed. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *ANA NAT WAT AG BR, 2002, EV ORG IMPL WAT BAS *ANA NAT WAT AG BR, 2002, EV WAT RES MAN BRAZ *FAO, 1979, 33 FAO *WORLD WAT FOR 3, 2003, MIN C OCC THIRD WORL ANDERSEN J, 2001, J HYDROL, V247, P200 BATHURST JC, 2003, PHYS CHEM EARTH, V28, P579 BECKER A, 2001, NOVA ACTA LEOP, V84, P191 BRONSTERT A, 2000, PHYS CHEM EARTH PT B, V25, P227 BRONSTERT A, 2004, COUPLED MODELS HYDRO BROOKE A, 1998, GAMS USERS GUIDE COHEN SJ, 1997, MACKENZIE BASIN IMPA DEKOK JL, 2003, PHYS CHEM EARTH, V28, P571 DOLL P, 2002, INTEGR ASSESS, V3, P308 DOLL P, 2002, WATER INT, V27, P310 DOLL P, 2003, J HYDROL, V270, P105 ENGELEN G, 2003, INTEGRATED ASSESSMEN, V4, P97 FUHR D, 2003, GLOBAL CHANGE REGION, P349 GAISER T, 2003, GLOBAL CHANGE REGION GAISER T, 2003, GLOBAL CHANGE REGION, P267 GUNTNER A, 2002, 77 PIK POTSD I CLIM GUNTNER A, 2004, HYDROLOG SCI J, V49, P901 GUNTNER A, 2004, J HYDROL, V297, P136 HENNICKER R, 2003, 1 WORLD C INF TECHN HOYNCK S, 2003, GLOBAL CHANGE REGION, P375 JAEGER A, 2003, THESIS U POTSDAM JOHNS TC, 1997, CLIM DYNAM, V13, P103 KROL MS, 2001, PHYS CHEM EARTH PT B, V26, P529 KROL MS, 2003, GLOBAL CHANGE REGION, P43 KROL MS, 2004, ADV GLOBAL CHANGE RE, V17 LEHNER B, 2001, KASSEL WORLD WATER S, V5 LOUCKS DP, 2000, WATER INT, V25, P3 MAGALHAES AR, 1988, IMPACT CLIMATIC VARI, V2, P273 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 ROECKNER E, 1996, 218 MPI MET TURNER BL, 2003, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V100, P8074 TURNER BL, 2003, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V100, P8080 VANDEGIESEN N, 2001, ADV GLOBAL CHANGE RE, V10, P151 VOROSMARTY CJ, 2000, SCIENCE, V289, P284 WERNER PC, 1997, CLIMATE RES, V8, P171 NR 39 TC 1 J9 ENVIRON MODELL SOFTW BP 259 EP 268 PY 2007 PD FEB VL 22 IS 2 GA 112UH UT ISI:000242552300014 ER PT J AU Kamukondiwa, W TI Alternative food crops to adapt to potential climatic change in southern Africa SO CLIMATE RESEARCH LA English DT Article RP Kamukondiwa, W, ENVIRONM & REMOTE SENSING INST,SCI & IND RES & DEV CTR,POB 6640,HARARE,ZIMBABWE. AB This paper discusses the merits of an alternative food crop, cassava Manihot esculenta, as a means to alleviate the effects of climate-induced drought on human and livestock food security in southern Africa. Although both tubers and leaves of cassava can be processed for consumption, the crop is grown to a very limited extent in this region. However, local awareness of cassava's potential has increased over the last decade. CR ASHER CJ, 1980, NUTRITIONAL DISORDER BANEA M, 1992, FOOD NUTR B, V14, P137 BANEA M, 1993, THESIS UPPSALA U CARTER SE, 1992, ATLAS CASSAVA AFRICA DUXBURY JM, 1994, FERT RES, V38, P151 HAHN SK, 1987, PUBL IDRC E, V258, P24 IGLESIAS C, 1994, EXP AGR, V30, P283 KLEIH U, 1994, FEASIBILITY STUDY CA MAKADHO J, 1992, SMALL SCALE AGR ZIMB, P50 PAKPAHAN A, 1993, INDON AGR RES DEV J, V15, P52 PELLET D, 1994, EXP AGR, V30, P359 ROSENZWEIG C, 1994, NATURE, V367, P133 UNGANAI LS, 1996, CLIMATE RES, V6, P137 NR 13 TC 1 J9 CLIMATE RES BP 153 EP 155 PY 1996 PD FEB 19 VL 6 IS 2 GA UD549 UT ISI:A1996UD54900010 ER PT J AU Hay, SI Rogers, DJ Randolph, SE Stern, DI Cox, J Shanks, GD Snow, RW TI Hot topic or hot air? Climate change and malaria resurgence in East African highlands SO TRENDS IN PARASITOLOGY LA English DT Article C1 Univ Oxford, Dept Zool, Oxford OX1 3PS, England. Rensselaer Polytech Inst, Dept Econ, Troy, NY 12180 USA. Univ London London Sch Hyg & Trop Med, Dept Infect & Trop Dis, London WC1E 7HT, England. Armed Forces Res Inst Med Sci, USA, Med Component, Bangkok 10400, Thailand. Kenya Govt Med Res Ctr, Wellcome Trust Collaborat Programme, Nairobi 43640, Kenya. RP Hay, SI, Univ Oxford, Dept Zool, S Parks Rd, Oxford OX1 3PS, England. AB Climate has a significant impact on malaria incidence and we have predicted that forecast climate changes might cause some modifications to the present global distribution of malaria close to its present boundaries. However, it is quite another matter to attribute recent resurgences of malaria in the highlands of East Africa to climate change. Analyses of malaria time-series at such sites have shown that malaria incidence has increased in the absence of co-varying changes in climate. We find the widespread increase in resistance of the malaria parasite to drugs and the decrease in vector control activities to be more likely driving forces behind the malaria resurgence. CR 1973, CHEMOTHERAPY MALARIA *INT BANK REC DEV, 2001, WORLD BANK AFR DAT C, P1 *NAT RES COUNC, 2001, WEATH CLIM EC INF DI, P59 *UN POP DIV, 2000, WORLD POP PROSP 1999, P36 BODKER R, 2000, GLOBAL CHANGE HUMAN, V1, P134 BONORA S, 2001, TRENDS PARASITOL, V17, P572 BREMAN JG, 2001, AM J TROP MED HYG, V64, P1 BUGILIMFURA L, 1988, REV MED RWANDAISE, V20, P93 DIPERRI G, 1998, ACTA TROP, V70, P25 EPSTEIN PR, 1998, B AM METEOROL SOC, V79, P409 ETCHEGORRY MG, 2001, LANCET, V357, P1046 FOGH S, 1979, T R SOC TROP MED HYG, V73, P228 GARNHAM PCC, 1948, J NATL MALAR SOC, V7, P275 HAY SI, 1998, PARASITOL TODAY, V14, P306 HAY SI, 2000, ADV PARASIT, V47, P1 HAY SI, 2000, ADV PARASIT, V47, P173 HAY SI, 2000, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V97, P9335 HAY SI, 2000, T ROY SOC TROP MED H, V94, P113 HAY SI, 2002, EMERG INFECT DIS, V8, P543 HAY SI, 2002, NATURE, V415, P905 HOUGHTON JT, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 KILIAN AHD, 1999, T ROY SOC TROP MED H, V93, P22 KOVATS RS, 2001, PHILOS T ROY SOC B, V356, P1057 LINDBLADE KA, 1999, T ROY SOC TROP MED H, V93, P480 LINDSAY SW, 1998, B WORLD HEALTH ORGAN, V76, P33 LINES J, 1994, HEALTH POLICY PLANN, V9, P113 LOEVINSOHN ME, 1994, LANCET, V343, P714 MARIMBU J, 1993, B SOC PATHOL EXOT, V86, P399 MARTENS P, 1999, AM SCI, V87, P534 MARTENS P, 1999, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHA S, V9, S89 MARTIN PH, 1995, AMBIO, V24, P200 MATOLA YG, 1987, J TROP MED HYG, V90, P127 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 MCMICHAEL AJ, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE HUMAN MCMICHAEL AJ, 2001, HUMAN FRONTIERS ENV, P283 MOUCHET J, 1997, B SOC PATHOL EXOT, V90, P162 MOUCHET J, 1998, B SOC PATHOL EXOT, V91, P64 MOUCHET J, 1998, J AM MOSQUITO CONTR, V14, P121 PATZ JA, 1996, JAMA-J AM MED ASSOC, V275, P217 PATZ JA, 1999, CURR OPIN MICROBIOL, V2, P445 PATZ JA, 2001, TRENDS IMMUNOL, V22, P171 REITER P, 2001, ENVIRON HEALTH PE S1, V109, P141 ROGERS DJ, 1993, LANCET, V342, P1282 ROGERS DJ, 2000, SCIENCE, V289, P1763 SHANKS GD, 2000, T ROY SOC TROP MED H, V94, P253 SHRETTA R, 2000, TROP MED INT HEALTH, V5, P755 SNOW RW, 2001, TRENDS PARASITOL, V17, P593 TRAPE JF, 2001, AM J TROP MED HYG, V64, P12 TRAPE JF, 2002, TRENDS PARASITOL, V18, P224 TUCKER CJ, 1985, SCIENCE, V227, P369 TULU AN, 1996, T ROY SOC TROP MED H, V90, P556 WALTHER GR, 2002, NATURE, V416, P389 WATSON RT, 2001, GLOBAL CHANGE HUM HL, V2, P64 NR 53 TC 15 J9 TRENDS PARASITOL BP 530 EP 534 PY 2002 PD DEC VL 18 IS 12 GA 618RV UT ISI:000179431800007 ER PT J AU SALZANO, FM TI INTERDISCIPLINARY APPROACHES TO THE HUMAN BIOLOGY OF SOUTH AMERINDIANS SO HUMAN BIOLOGY LA English DT Article RP SALZANO, FM, UNIV FED RIO GRANDE SUL,INST BIOCIENCIAS,DEPT GENET,CAIXA POSTAL 15053,BR-91501 PORTO ALEGRE,RS,BRAZIL. AB I briefly review the early attempts to establish interdisciplinary investigations in human biology, emphasizing those involving South American Indians. Also considered are (1) the interest in studying host-parasite relationships and the effects of culture changes in the affected populations, (2) the need for the development of appropriate intra-ethnic standards in the study of growth and other quantitative traits, (3) the similarities and dissimilarities of cultural and biologic rates of change, and (4) the purposes of multivariate comparisons. Despite difficulties arising from human nature itself, integrated approaches may yield significant clues to the understanding of evolutionary processes in South American Indians in particular or in our species as a whole. 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Agriculture will, however, continue to be the most important sector to adapt to climate change: nearly 70 per cent of China's population depends directly on agriculture. Like other developing countries, China will need to develop adaptation strategies imposed by climate change against a background of existing poverty, resource and infrastructure constraints. Northeast China was selected for this case study because it illustrates how anticipatory adaptation can lead to positive impacts from climate change. This region is already one of the most important bases of commercial food grains (wheat, rice and maize) and economic crops (soybean, sugar beets). Recent climate warming has on the one hand created favourable conditions for agricultural development in Northeast China through a prolonged growth period, northward movement of accumulated temperature belts and decreases of cold stress. On the other hand, environment and natural resource problems (e.g. water shortage, urbanisation) have placed enormous regional stress on agricultural production and ecosystems, illustrating the complex nature of the impacts of climate change. This case study demonstrates that the positive opportunities provided by climate change will not happen automatically but will require communities to be supported through resources such as extension services, new crop varieties and institutional frameworks that allow experimentation and reward entrepreneurship. Over the longer term and at higher temperatures, the negative impacts of climate change, such as increased water stress and extreme events, may mean a decrease or even a reversal of the potential benefits of temperature increases in the short term. CR *AMI, 2004, CHIN UK CLIM CHANG P *CHIN IN NAT COMM, 2004, PEOPL REP CHIN SUBM MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 *NAT BUR STAT CHIN, 2003, CHIN STAT YB *RTCCCS, 1999, CHIN CLIM CHANG COUN *STAT BUR HEIL PRO, 1992, HEIL STAT YB *STAT BUR JIL PROV, 1992, JIL STAT YB *STAT BUR LIAON PR, 1993, LIAON STAT YB BI W, 2004, ADJUSTING IND STRUCT CI LJ, 1994, J NATURAL RESOURCES, V9, P289 DING YH, 1993, CHALLENGE ENV CLIMAT DING YH, 1998, P 7 INT C PERM YELL, V57, P221 DU BL, 2000, ACTA OCEANOLOGICA S, V22, P1 FANG XQ, 2000, J NATURAL RESOURCES, V15, P213 HAO ZX, 2001, PROGR GEOGRAPHY, V20, P254 HOU LB, 1996, P 2 CHIN YOUNG SCI W, P261 HOU LB, 1999, J SHENYANG AGR U, V30, P567 JIN ZQ, 1998, CROP SCI, V28, P51 LIU H, 2004, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V65, P125 PENG SL, 2000, EARTH SCI FRONTIERS, V9, P217 SHI YF, 2000, SCIENCE REPORT, V45, P434 SUN LF, 1997, HEILONGJIANG AGR SCI, V4, P17 WANG S, 2002, ACTA PHYS-CHIM SIN, V18, P264 WANG XF, 1994, THEORY PRACTICE BIOD XIA DX, 1993, ACTA GEOGRAPHICA SIN, V48, P468 XU DY, 1997, IMPACT CLIMATE CHANG XU YL, 2003, CLIMATIC ENV RES, V18, P209 YE DZ, 1992, SIMULATION RES GLOBA ZHAI PM, 2003, INT S CLIM CHANG ISC ZHANG HX, 2000, AGR METEOROLOGY, V21, P9 ZHANG HX, 2001, CHINESE J AGRO METEO, V21, P10 ZHANG HX, 2003, UNPUB ADAPTATION FRA ZHANG Y, 1997, PUB LAW E SE ASIA, V2, P35 ZHAO MC, 1995, J NATURAL RESOURCES, V10, P148 ZHAO SQ, 1994, GEOGRAPHY CHINA ENV ZHOU GS, 1996, ACTA PHYTOECOLOGICA, V20, P11 ZHOU WH, 1998, TROPICAL GEOGRAPHY, V18, P266 ZOU LK, 2001, CHINESE J AGRO METEO, V22, P53 NR 38 TC 0 J9 IDS BULL-INST DEVELOP STUD BP 15 EP + PY 2005 PD OCT VL 36 IS 4 GA 989QD UT ISI:000233687900003 ER PT J AU Furgal, C Seguin, J TI Climate change, health, and vulnerability in Canadian northern Aboriginal communities SO ENVIRONMENTAL HEALTH PERSPECTIVES LA English DT Article C1 Trent Univ, Gzowski Coll, Dept Indigenous Studies, Peterborough, ON K9J 7B8, Canada. Univ Laval, Nasivvik Ctr Inuit Hlth & Changing Environm, Publ Hlth Res Unit,Dept Polit Sci, CHU Quebec,CHU Laval, Quebec City, PQ, Canada. Hlth Canada, Climat Change & Hlth Off, Ottawa, ON K1A 0L2, Canada. RP Furgal, C, Trent Univ, Gzowski Coll, Dept Indigenous Studies, 1600 E Bank Dr, Peterborough, ON K9J 7B8, Canada. AB BACKGROUND: Canada has recognized that Aboriginal and northern communities in the country face unique challenges and that there is a need to expand the assessment of vulnerabilities to climate change to include these communities. Evidence suggests that Canada's North is already experiencing significant changes in its climate-changes that are having negative impacts on the lives of Aboriginal people living in these regions. Research on climate change and health impacts in northern Canada thus far has brought together Aboriginal community members, government representatives, and researchers and is charting new territory. METHODS AND RESULTs: In this article we review experiences from two projects that have taken a community-based dialogue approach to identifying and assessing the effects of and vulnerability to climate change and the impact on the health in two Inuit regions of the Canadian Arctic. CONCLUSIONs: The results of the two case projects that we present argue for a multi-stakeholder, participatory framework for assessment that supports the necessary analysis, understanding, and enhancement of capabilities of local areas to respond and adapt to the health impacts at the local level. CR 2006, KYOTO PROTOCOL 2006, UN FRAM CONV CLIM CH *ACIA, 2004, ARCT CLIM IMP ASS OV *ACIA, 2005, ARCT CLIM IMP ASS SC *ARCTICNET, 2004, NETW CTR EXC *DEP IND NO AFF NO, 2003, 2 DEP IND NO AFF NO *GERM AG TECHN COO, 1988, ZOPP OBJ ORIENTED PR *GOV CAN, 2003, CLIM CHANG IMP AD CA *HLTH CAN, 2002, PUBL HLTH PLANN WORK *HLTH CAN, 2003, EXP ADV WORKSH AD CA *INAC, 1993, AGR IN NUN SETTL AR *OUR CLIM CHANG CO, 2004, AD CHANG CLIM BIBL N *STAT CAN, 2001, 89589XIE STAT CAN ADGER WN, 2003, PROGR DEV STUDIES, V3, P179 BERKES F, 2002, CONSERV ECOL, V5, P1 BERNER J, 2005, ARCTIC CLIMATE IMPAC, P863 CASIMIRO E, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE PORTU CHAMBERS R, 1997, WHOSE REALITY COUNTS CHAPIN FS, 2005, MILLENIUM ECOSYSTEM COHEN SJ, 1997, MACKENZIE BASIN IMPA DAMAS D, 2002, ARCTIC MIGRANTS ARCT DUHAIME G, 2002, ECOL FOOD NUTR, V41, P91 EBI KL, 2003, CLIMATE CHANGE HLTH EBI KL, 2006, ENVIRON HEALTH PERSP, V114, P1930 FORD JD, 2006, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V16, P145 FURGAL C, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE NUNAV FURGAL C, 2002, EARTH IS FASTER NOW, P366 GRAMBSCH A, 2003, CLIMATE CHANGE HLTH, P220 HUNTINGTON HH, 2005, ARCTIC CLIMATE IMPAC, P61 KOVATS RS, 2003, HLTH GLOBAL ENV CHAN, V1 KRUPNIK I, 2002, EARTH IS FASTER NOW LAFORTUNE V, 2004, CLIMATE CHANGE NO QU MCBEAN G, 2005, ARCTIC CLIMATE IMPAC, P21 NELSON O, 2003, NUNATSIAQ NEWS 0131 NICKELS S, 2002, EARTH FASTER NOW IND, P300 PATZ JA, 2000, ANNU REV PUBL HEALTH, V21, P271 REIDLINGER D, 2001, ARCTIC, V54, P96 TESCH R, 1990, QUALITATIVE RES ANAL VANOOSTDAM J, 2005, SCI TOTAL ENVIRON, V351, P165 WELLER G, 2005, ARCTIC CLIMATE IMPAC, P989 WONDERS W, 2003, CANADAS CHANGING N YOHE GW, 2002, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V12, P25 NR 42 TC 1 J9 ENVIRON HEALTH PERSPECT BP 1964 EP 1970 PY 2006 PD DEC VL 114 IS 12 GA 112BN UT ISI:000242500200048 ER PT J AU Rappaport, RA TI Pigs for the ancestors: ritual in the ecology of a New Guinea People SO PIGS ANCESTORS RITUA LA English DT Book RP RAPPAPORT, RA, UNIV MICHIGAN,DEPT ANTHROPOL,ANN ARBOR,MI 48109.. NR 0 TC 0 J9 PIGS ANCESTORS RITUA BP 1 EP 1 PY 1967 PD DEC 29 VL 1 IS 1 GA ZD200 UT ISI:000072661400001 ER PT J AU Sullivan, C Meigh, J TI Targeting attention on local vulnerabilities using an integrated index approach: the example of the climate vulnerability index SO WATER SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY LA English DT Article C1 Ctr Ecol & Hydrol, Wallingford OX10 8BB, Oxon, England. RP Sullivan, C, Ctr Ecol & Hydrol, Wallingford OX10 8BB, Oxon, England. AB It is known that climate impacts can have significant effects on the environment, societies and economies. For human populations, climate change impacts can be devastating, giving rise to economic disruption and mass migration as agricultural systems fail, either through drought or floods. Such events impact significantly, not only where they happen, but also in the neighbouring areas. Vulnerability to the impacts of climate change needs to be assessed, so that adaptation strategies can be developed and populations can be protected. In this paper, we address the issue of vulnerability assessment through the use of an indicator approach, the climate vulnerability index (CVI). We show how this can overcome some of the difficulties of incommensurability associated with the combination of different types of data, and how the approach can be applied at a variety of scales. Through the development of nested index values, more reliable and robust coverage of large areas can be achieved, and we provide an indication of how this could be done. While further work is required to improve the methodology through wider application and component refinement, it seems likely that this approach will have useful application in the assessment of climate vulnerability. Through its application at sub-national and community scales, the CVI can help to identify those human populations most at risk from climate change impacts, and as a result, resources can be targeted towards those most in need. CR MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 *ISDR, 2002, LIV RISK *UNEP, 2002, GLOB ENV OUTL 3 PRES *WORLD BANK, 1998, STAND WELF IND AMADORE LA, 1996, WATER AIR SOIL POLL, V92, P1 CARNE D, 1998, SUSTAINABLE RURAL LI DGER N, 2002, NATURAL DISASTER DEV, P19 EDGEWORTH FY, 1925, ECON J, V35, P379 FISHER L, 1922, MAKING INDEX NUMBER HAMMOND A, 1995, ENV INDICATORS SYSTE LAL M, 2002, CLIMATE RES, V19, P179 LENTON TM, 2002, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V52, P409 MEIGH JR, IN PRESS LINK WAT RE RENNINGS K, 1997, ECOL ECON, V20, P25 ROGERS PR, 1997, MEASURING ENV QUALIT SCOONES I, 1998, 72 IDS STREETEN P, 1995, INT SOC SCI J, V47, P25 SULLIVAN CA, 2002, SCOPING STUDY IDENTI SULLIVAN CA, 2003, NAT RESOUR FORUM, V27, P189 NR 19 TC 2 J9 WATER SCI TECHNOL BP 69 EP 78 PY 2005 VL 51 IS 5 GA 931CW UT ISI:000229464400012 ER PT J AU Page, EA TI Fairness on the day after tomorrow: Justice, reciprocity and global climate change SO POLITICAL STUDIES LA English DT Article C1 Univ Warwick, Dept Polit & Int Studies, Coventry CV4 7AL, W Midlands, England. RP Page, EA, Univ Warwick, Dept Polit & Int Studies, Coventry CV4 7AL, W Midlands, England. AB Climate change raises important questions of global distributive justice, which can be defined as the issue of how benefits and burdens should be distributed within and between generations. This article addresses two conceptual issues that underpin the relationship between climate change and the part of distributive justice concerned with the entitlements of future persons. The first is the role of reciprocity, conceived either as mutual advantage or fair play, in the allocation of distributive entitlements between generations. The second is the extent to which theories of 'justice as reciprocity' can ground duties of intergenerational justice that underpin radical policies to manage the causes and impacts of global climate change. I argue that theories of justice as fair reciprocity generate significant duties of environmental conservation, despite these duties not being owed directly to the not-yet-born. 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Differential income, capacity and ability to adapt to the negative consequences of climate change means that vulnerability and resilience of different social groups necessitates a gendered approach. The article looks at the inherent human security issues that are integral to climate change, in terms of adaptation and mitigation. It focuses briefly on the "neglect" of gender issues within the overall climate debate and makes suggestions why gender issues were initially sidetracked from the main debate. Climate sensitive sectors such as agriculture, water and energy are explored and inherent links with gender are made. The article underscores the importance of integrating key lessons from the development discourses into the climate regime. CR *GEF UNDP UNOPS, 2003, COMM ACT ADDR CLIM C *GLOB ENV OUTL, 2002, PAST PRES FUT PERPS *UNEP UNFCCC, 2001, CLIM CHANG INF KIT *WORLD BANK, 2003, WORLD DEV REP DENTON F, 2000, ENERGIA NEWS OCT, V3 DENTON F, 2002, GENDER DEV CLIMATE C GOETZ AM, 1991, GENDER INT RELATIONS GUPTA J, 1999, RECIEL, V8, P200 MAGADZA CH, 2003, CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPT MASIKA R, 2002, GENDER DEV CLIMATE C MOSER CON, 1991, GENDER INT RELATIONS MWANDOSYA MJ, 1999, SURIVIVAL EMISSIONS NEUE HU, METHANE EMISSION RIC SKUSTCH M, 2002, CLIMATE CHANGE PROCE SOKONA Y, 2004, LPG INTRO SENEGAL WAMUKONYA N, 2001, ENERGIA NEWS, V4 NR 16 TC 0 J9 IDS BULL-INST DEVELOP STUD BP 42 EP + PY 2004 PD JUL VL 35 IS 3 GA 844HK UT ISI:000223148700007 ER PT J AU Coombes, P Barber, K TI Environmental determinism in Holocene research: causality or coincidence? SO AREA LA English DT Article C1 Univ Wales, Inst Geog & Earth Sci, Aberystwyth SY23 3DB, Dyfed, Wales. Univ Southampton, Sch Geog, Palaeoecol Lab, Southampton SO17 1BJ, Hants, England. RP Coombes, P, Univ Wales, Inst Geog & Earth Sci, Aberystwyth SY23 3DB, Dyfed, Wales. AB The past decade has seen a revival of environmental determinism in palaeoenvironmental research, with palaeoclimatic shifts implicated in the collapse of many past civilizations. Implicit in these studies is a belief that the observed cultural transitions can be causally related to the magnitude of climatic change. However, examination of the processes of these declines suggests that many exhibit patterns characteristic of complexity cascading within self-organized systems. if so, the nonlinear nature of these systems' responses to external forcing means that the assumption of causality in many of these cases should be considered questionable. CR ADAMS RM, 2001, J ANTHROPOL ARCHAEOL, V20, P345 ADGER WN, 2000, PROG HUM GEOG, V24, P347 ADGER WN, 2003, NATURAL DISASTER DEV, P19 ARMIT I, 1998, LIFE EDGE HUMAN SETT, P31 ARNEBORG J, 1999, RADIOCARBON, V41, P157 BAILLIE MGL, 1998, LIFE EDGE HUMAN SETT, P13 BAK P, 1987, PHYS REV LETT, V59, P381 BARBER K, 2004, PAST CLIMATE VARIABI, P417 BARBER KE, 2004, BOREAS, V33, P132 BARLOW LK, 1997, HOLOCENE, V7, P489 BERGLUND BE, 2003, QUATERN INT, V105, P7 BINFORD MW, 1997, QUATERNARY RES, V47, P235 BOGUCKI P, 1996, J ANTHROPOL ARCHAEOL, V15, P289 BOSERUP E, 1981, POPULATION TECHNOLOG BROWN AG, 1998, LIFE EDGE HUMAN SETT, P139 BRUNK GG, 2002, J THEOR POLIT, V14, P195 BRYSON RA, 1974, ANTIQUITY, V48, P46 BSERUP E, 1965, CONDITIONS AGR GROWT CHAMBERS FM, 2002, HOLOCENE, V12, P239 CRUMLEY CL, 1993, ECOL APPL, V3, P377 CULLEN HM, 2000, GEOLOGY, V28, P379 DEAN JS, 2000, WAY WIND BLOWS CLIMA, P89 DEARING JA, 1999, HOLOCENE, V9, P531 DEMENOCAL PB, 2001, SCIENCE, V292, P667 DIAMOND J, 2005, COLLAPSE SOC CHOOSE DILLEHAY T, 2004, HOLOCENE, V14, P272 DUMAYNEPEATY L, 1998, J QUATERNARY SCI, V13, P147 ERICKSON CL, 1999, ANTIQUITY, V73, P634 FRENKEL S, 1994, PROF GEOGR, V46, P289 GROVE RH, 1997, ECOLOGY CLIAMTE EMPI HASSAN FA, 2001, MONSOON, V3, P39 HAUG GH, 2003, SCIENCE, V299, P1731 HODELL DA, 1995, NATURE, V375, P391 HODELL DA, 2001, SCIENCE, V292, P1367 JANSSEN MA, 2003, CURR ANTHROPOL, V44, P722 JONES TL, 1999, CURR ANTHROPOL, V40, P137 KELLY PM, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V47, P325 LADURIE EL, 1971, TIMES FEAST FAMINE H LAMB HH, 1966, CHANGING CLIMATE LAMB HH, 1995, CLIAMTE HIST MODERN LEKSON SH, 1995, J ANTHROPOL ARCHAEOL, V14, P184 LIVINGSTONE DN, 1992, GEOGRAPHICAL TRADITI LOMASCLARKE SH, 2004, HOLOCENE, V14, P721 MANLEY G, 1958, GEOGR J, V48, P98 MANZANILLA L, 1997, QUATERN INT, V43, P153 MCGOVERN TH, 1994, HIST ECOLOGY CULTURA, P127 MESSERLI B, 2000, QUATERNARY SCI REV, V19, P459 MONTESQUIREU CD, 1977, SPIRIT LAWS MORRISON KD, 1996, CURR ANTHROPOL, V37, P583 MYRDAL J, 2000, 37 LUNDQUA, P83 ORTLOFF CR, 1993, J ARCHAEOL SCI, V20, P195 PARRY ML, 1974, T I BRIT GEOGR, V64, P1 PEZZEY JCV, 2003, J DEV ECON, V72, P299 PHILLIPS DA, 1979, J STEWARD ANTHR SOC, V10, P137 PIESER BJ, 1998, BAR INT SERIES, V728, P117 RENFREW C, 1979, TRANSFORMATIONS MATH, P481 SANDERS WT, 1973, CLASSIC MAYA COLLAPS SCHNEIDER SH, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P203 SCOTT S, 1998, J BIOSOC SCI, V30, P15 SHERMER M, 1995, HIST THEORY, V34, P59 SHINDE V, 2001, MONSOON, V3, P92 SLUYTER A, 2003, ANTIPODE, V35, P813 STAUBWASSER M, 2003, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V30 TAINTER JA, 1995, FUTURES, V27, P397 TINNER W, 2003, QUATERNARY SCI REV, V22, P1447 VANBUREN M, 2001, J ARCHAEOL METHOD TH, V8, P129 VANGEEL B, 1996, J QUATERNARY SCI, V11, P451 VASEY DE, 2001, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V48, P243 WEISS H, 1993, SCIENCE, V261, P995 WEISS H, 2001, SCIENCE, V291, P609 WILLIAMS PR, 2002, WORLD ARCHAEOL, V33, P361 WOOD JW, 1998, CURR ANTHROPOL, V39, P99 WRIGHT HE, 1993, CURR ANTHROPOL, V34, P458 YOHE GW, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V46, P371 YOUNG R, 1996, LANDSCAPE HIST, V17, P5 NR 75 TC 2 J9 AREA BP 303 EP 311 PY 2005 PD SEP VL 37 IS 3 GA 965DK UT ISI:000231930100009 ER PT J AU Tarhule, A Lamb, PJ TI Climate research and seasonal forecasting for West Africans - Perceptions, dissemination, and use? SO BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY LA English DT Article C1 Univ Oklahoma, Dept Geog, Sarkeys Energy Ctr, Norman, OK 73019 USA. Univ Oklahoma, Sch Meteorol, Norman, OK 73019 USA. Univ Oklahoma, Cooperat Inst Mesoscale Meteorol Studies, Norman, OK 73019 USA. RP Tarhule, A, Univ Oklahoma, Dept Geog, Sarkeys Energy Ctr, 100 E Boyd St, Norman, OK 73019 USA. AB Beginning in response to the disastrous drought of 1968-73, considerable research and monitoring have focused on the characteristics, causes, predictability, and impacts of West African Soudano-Sahel (10degrees-18degreesN) rainfall variability and drought. While these efforts have generated substantial information on a range of these topics, very little is known of the extent to which communities, activities at risk, and policy makers are aware of, have access to, or use such information. This situation has prevailed despite Glantz's provocative BAMS paper on the use and value of seasonal forecasts for the Sahel more than a quarter century ago. We now provide a systematic reevaluation of these issues based on questionnaire responses of 566 participants (in 13 communities) and 26 organizations in Burkina Faso, Mali, Niger, and Nigeria. The results reveal that rural inhabitants have limited access to climate information, with nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) being the most important source. Moreover, the pathways for information flow are generally weakly connected and informal. As a result, utilization of the results of climate research is very low to nonexistent, even by organizations responsible for managing the effects of climate variability. Similarly, few people have access to seasonal climate forecasts, although the vast majority expressed a willingness to use such information when it becomes available. Those respondents with access expressed great enthusiasm and satisfaction with seasonal forecasts. The results suggest that inhabitants of the Soudano-Sahel savanna are keen for changes that improve their ability to cope with climate variability, but the lack of information on alternative courses of action is a major constraint. Our study, thus, essentially leaves unchanged both Glantz's negative "tentative conclusion" and more positive "preliminary assessment" of 25 years ago. Specifically, while many of the infrastructural deficiencies and socioeconomic impediments remain, the great yearning for climate information by Soudano-Sahalians suggests that the time is finally ripe for fostering increased use. Therefore, a simple model for improved dissemination of climate research and seasonal climate forecast information is proposed. The tragedy is that a quarter century has passed since Glantz's clarion call. 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Enita Clermont Ferrand, Lempdes, France. RP Loiseau, P, INRA, Unite Agron Fonctionnement & Gest Ecosyst Prairia, Domaine Crouel,234 Ave Brezet, F-63039 Clermont Ferrand 2, France. AB According to the situations encountered in extensified breeding farms, three important pieces of ecological knowledge allow to understand grassland ecosystem dynamics, in order to settle sustainable pasture management in both production and environmental aims. i) The interaction between vegetation and herbivores must be considered as well as the long term adaptation between vegetation status and stocking rate, or as the instantaneous modulation of grassland production and structure under herbivore predation. ii) The dynamics of botanical composition must be represented in terms of sensitivity and resilience to perturbations or to management changes, which condition primary phytomass production and accumulation. Extensifying grassland management induces reversible effects on the seasonal dynamics of the phytomass, but cumulative negative effects on botanical composition. Species strategies are involved in the dynamics of the spatial structure and diversity of the vegetation. iii) The management of the nitrogen cycle allows to manipulate in a long term the soil nitrogen supplying capacity, for improving the perennity of sowed swards, or making easier the control of the phytomass under low stocking rates. The implications for N leaching are discussed. (C) Elsevier/Inra. 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RP WATTS, MJ, UNIV CALIF BERKELEY,DEPT GEOG,BERKELEY,CA 94720. CR 1989, IDS B, V20 1992, HUNGER *UNICEF, 1991, STAT WORLDS CHILDR AHMAD E, 1991, SOCIAL SECURITY DEV ALAMGIR M, 1982, FAMINE S ASIA POLITI ALAMGIR M, 1991, PROVIDING FOOD SECUR APPADURAI A, 1984, J ASIAN STUD, V43, P481 BARDHAN P, 1990, AGRARIAN I BERNSTEIN H, 1990, FOOD QUESTION PROFIT BERRY S, 1989, AFRICA, V59, P41 BLAIKIE PM, 1985, POLITICAL EC SOIL ER BLAIKIE PM, 1987, SOC LAND DEGRADATION BOHLE HG, 1986, GEOGR Z, V74, P106 BOHLE HG, 1990, APPLIED GEOGRAPHY DE, V37, P21 BOHLE HG, 1990, Z WIRTSCHAFTSGEOGRAP, V34, P6 BOHLE HG, 1991, FAMINE FOOD SECURITY BOHLER HG, 1985, GEOJOURNAL, V10, P5 BORDIEU P, 1985, THEOR SOC, V14, P723 BUSH R, 1988, AFR AFFAIRS, V87, P5 CAIN M, 1983, POPUL DEV REV, V9, P688 CANNON T, 1991, FAMINE FOOD SECURITY, P291 CARNEY J, 1991, SIGNS, V16, P651 CHAMBERS R, 1983, RURAL DEV PUTTING LA CHAMBERS R, 1989, IDS B, V20, P1 CHEN M, 1991, COPING SEASONALITY D COLLINS J, 1986, MYTHS HUNGER CORBETT J, 1988, WORLD DEV, V16, P1099 CURTIS D, 1988, PREVENTING FAMINE PO DEGARINE I, 1988, COPING UNCERTAINTY F DEJANVRY A, 1980, AGRARIAN QUESTION RE DEWAAL A, 1989, FAMINE KILLS DARFUR DOWNING TE, 1989, COPING DROUGHT KENYA DOWNING TE, 1991, ASSESING SOCIOECONOM DOWNING TE, 1991, FAMINE FOOD SECURITY, P39 DREZE J, 1989, HUNGER PUBLIC ACTION DREZE J, 1990, POLITICAL EC HUNGER, V1 DREZE J, 1990, POLITICAL EC HUNGER, V2 DREZE J, 1990, POLITICAL EC HUNGER, V3 FREIDMANN H, 1990, FOOD QUESTION PROFIT, P13 GHOSE AK, 1989, EC DEV, P122 GORE C, 1990, UNPUB ENTITLEMENTS U GOUGH K, 1981, RURAL SOC SE INDIA GREENOUGH P, 1982, PROSPERITY MISERY MO HARRISS B, 1982, APPROACHES DEV STUDI, P245 HARRISS B, 1989, CHILD NUTRITION POVE HARRISS B, 1990, ECON POLIT WEEKLY, V25, P2783 HARRISS B, 1990, POLITICAL EC HUNGER, V1, P351 HARVEY D, 1982, LIMITS CAPITAL HIRTZ F, IN PRESS MANAGING IN KABEER N, 1991, J PEASANT STUD, V18, P241 KANBUR S, 1990, POLITICAL EC HUNGER, P53 KATES R, 1990, HUNGER HIST, P3 KENT G, 1991, UNPUB CHILDRENS RIGH LIVERMAN DM, 1990, UNDERSTANDING GLOBAL, V1, P27 MACPHERSON S, 1987, COMP SOCIAL POLICY 3 MAMDANI M, 1986, NEW LEFT REV, V156, P37 MCALPIN MB, 1983, SUBJECT FAMINE FOOD MESSER E, 1991, UNPUB HUHNGER VULNER MORTIMORE MJ, 1989, ADAPTING DROUGHT FAM MORTIMORE MJ, 1991, FAMINE FOOD SECURITY, P11 NEWMAN L, 1990, HUNGER HIST OCONNOR J, 1987, MEANING CRISIS OCONNOR J, 1988, CAPITALISM NATURE SO, V1, P11 OFFE C, 1984, CONTRADICTIONS WELFA PARIKH K, 1990, POLITICAL EC HUNGER, P114 PATNAIK U, 1992, UNPUB FOOD AVAILABIL PRZEWORSKI A, 1990, POLIT SOC, V19, P1 RANGASAMI A, 1985, ECON POLIT WEEKLY, V20, P1747 RAVALLION M, 1987, MARKETS FAMINES SAYER A, 1984, METHOD SOCIAL SCI RE SCOTT JC, 1976, MORAL EC PEASANT SEN AK, 1981, POVERTY FAMINES ESSA, V1, P1 SEN AK, 1987, EC PHILOS, V4, P57 SEN AK, 1990, POLITICAL EC HUNGER, V1, P34 SHEPHERD A, 1988, PREVENTING FAMINE PO, P196 SHIPTON P, 1990, ANNU REV ANTHROPOL, V19, P353 SOBHAN R, 1990, POLITICAL EC HUNGER, P79 SPITZ R, 1980, FAMINE SELF PROVISIO SUSMAN P, 1984, INTERPRETATIONS CALA, P264 SWIFT J, 1989, IDS B, V20, P8 TAUSSIG M, 1984, COMP STUD SOC HIST, V26, P467 TIMMERMAN P, 1981, ENV MONOGRAPH, V1, P1 TORRY WI, 1986, GEOJOURNAL, V12, P5 VAUGHN M, 1987, STORY AFRICAN FAMINE VONBENDABECKMAN F, 1988, KINSHIP STATE SOCIAL VONBRAUN J, 1991, FAMINE AFRICA WATTS MJ, 1983, SILENT VIOLENCE FOOD WATTS MJ, 1991, REV AFRICAN POLITICA, V5, P9 WHITEHEAD A, 1990, POLITICAL EC HUNGER, P425 WISNER B, 1988, POWER NEED AFRICA WOLFF R, 1987, EC MARXIAN VERSUS NE NR 91 TC 54 J9 PROG HUM GEOGR BP 43 EP 67 PY 1993 PD MAR VL 17 IS 1 GA KT524 UT ISI:A1993KT52400003 ER PT J AU Gowdy, J Erickson, JD TI The approach of ecological economics SO CAMBRIDGE JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS LA English DT Article C1 Rensselaer Polytech Inst, Dept Econ, Troy, NY 12180 USA. Univ Vermont, Burlington, VT 05405 USA. RP Gowdy, J, Rensselaer Polytech Inst, Dept Econ, Troy, NY 12180 USA. AB This paper discusses the major tenets of ecological economics-including value pluralism, methodological pluralism and multi-criteria policy assessment. Ecological economics offers viable alternatives to the theoretical foundations and policy recommendations of neoclassical welfare economics. A revolution in neoclassical economics is currently taking place, and the core assumptions of welfare economics are being replaced with more realistic models of consumer and firm behaviour. This paper argues that these new theoretical and empirical findings are largely ignored in applied work and policy applications in environmental economics. As the only heterodox school of economics focusing on the human economy both as a social system and as one imbedded in the biophysical universe, and thus both holistic and scientifically based, ecological economics is poised to play a leading role in recasting the scope and method of economic science. CR MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 *IPCC, 2001, CLIM CHANG 2001 SCI ALBERT M, 1990, QUIET REVOLUTION WEL ARROW KJ, 1954, ECONOMETRICA, V22, P265 AYRES RU, 1969, AM ECON REV, V59, P282 BARTON H, 1996, ENVIRON VALUE, V5, P97 BERGH CJ, 2000, REGIONAL ENV CHANGE, V2, P13 BERGH CJ, 2003, CAMBRIDGE J ECON, V27, P65 BOADWAY R, 1974, ECON J, V47, P926 BOULDING K, 1966, ENV QUALITY GROWING BOWLES S, 1998, J ECON LIT, V36, P75 BOWLES S, 2002, NATURE, V415, P125 BROMLEY DW, 1990, J ENVIRON ECON MANAG, V19, P86 BROWN P, 2001, COMMONWEALTH LIFE BROWN TC, 1999, ECOL ECON, V28, P323 BRYANT WDA, 1994, J ECON EDUC, V25, P75 CHAPMAN D, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V47, P225 CHRISTENSEN P, 1989, ECOLOGICAL MODELING, V38, P47 CIRIACYWANTRUP SV, 1952, RESOURCE CONSERVATIO CORRADO C, 1997, J ECON PERSPECT, V11, P151 COSTANZA R, 1991, ECOLOGICAL EC SCI MA DALY HE, 1977, STEADY STATE EC DOUGLAS M, 1986, I THINK DUCHIN F, 1998, STRUCTURAL EC ERICKSON JD, 1999, ENV EC THEORY APPL P FABER M, 1996, ECOLOGICAL EC CONCEP FEHR E, 2000, AM ECON REV, V90, P980 FEHR E, 2002, NATURE, V415, P137 GEANAKOPLOS J, 1987, NEW PALGRAVE DICT EC, V1 GEORGESCUROEGEN.N, 1976, ENERGY EC MYTHS GINTIS H, 2000, ECOL ECON, V35, P311 GOWDA RM, 2003, ANGIOLOGY, V54, P469 GOWDY JM, 1997, LAND ECON, V73, P25 GUNDERSON LH, 1995, BARRIERS BRIDGES REN, V1, P1 HENRICH J, 2001, AM ECON REV, V91, P73 HENRICH J, 2003, J ECON BEHAV ORGAN, V53, P3 HOLLING CS, 2000, RESILIENCE ECOSYSTEM HOWARTH RB, 2001, INT J ENVIRON POLLUT, V15, P386 KALDOR N, 1939, ECON J, V49, P549 KIRMAN A, 1989, ECON J, V99, P126 KNETSCH JL, 1989, AM ECON REV, V79, P1277 LAIBSON D, 1997, Q J ECON, V112, P443 LAITNER J, 2001, SOC BEHAV CLIMATE CH LOCKWOOD B, 1987, NEW PALGRAVE DICT EC, V3 MARTINEZALIER J, 1987, ECOLOGICAL EC ENERGY MAYUMI K, 2001, ORIGINS ECOLOGICAL E MILLER R, 2000, J EC ED SPR, P119 NORDHAUS WD, 1992, SCIENCE, V258, P1315 NORDHAUS WD, 2001, SCIENCE, V294, P1283 NORGAARD R, 1994, DEV BETRAYED END PRO NORGAARD RB, 1989, ECOL ECON, V1, P37 ONEILL J, 2000, ENVIRON VALUE, V9, P521 ONEILL R, 1986, HIERARCHICAL CONCEPT PASINETTI L, 1977, LECT THEORY PRODUCTI PEZZY J, 2002, 0203 RES FUT PRICE C, 1993, TIME DISCOUNTING VAL PROOPS J, 2002, ENCY LIFE SCI RADNER R, 1968, ECONOMETRICA, V36, P31 SAMUELSON P, 1950, OXFORD ECON PAP, V2, P1 SCHEFFER M, 2001, NATURE, V413, P591 SCITOVSKY T, 1941, REV ECON STUD, V9, P77 SODERBAUM P, 2000, ECOLOGICAL EC SPASH C, 2001, 11 U CAMBR CAMBR RES SPASH C, 2002, GREENHOUSE EC VALUES SPASH CL, 1999, ENVIRON VALUE, V8, P413 SPASH CL, 2000, ECOL ECON, V34, P195 STIGLITZ J, 1994, WHITHER SOCIALISM SUZUMURA K, 1999, ECON J, V109, P204 TURNER RK, 1999, HDB ENV RESOURCE EC TVERSKY A, 1991, Q J ECON, V106, P1039 VATN A, 1994, J ENVIRON ECON MANAG, V26, P129 WRIGHT E, 2003, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V57, P3 WRIGHT E, 2003, INT J GLOBAL ENV ISS, V3, P357 NR 73 TC 2 J9 CAMB J ECON BP 207 EP 222 PY 2005 PD MAR 1 VL 29 IS 2 GA 900VI UT ISI:000227242000003 ER PT J AU Lytle, DA Poff, NL TI Adaptation to natural flow regimes SO TRENDS IN ECOLOGY & EVOLUTION LA English DT Review C1 Oregon State Univ, Dept Zool, Corvallis, OR 97331 USA. Colorado State Univ, Dept Biol, Ft Collins, CO 80523 USA. RP Lytle, DA, Oregon State Univ, Dept Zool, Corvallis, OR 97331 USA. AB Floods and droughts are important features of most running water ecosystems, but the alteration of natural flow regimes by recent human activities, such as dam building, raises questions related to both evolution and conservation. Among organisms inhabiting running waters, what adaptations exist for surviving floods and droughts? How will the alteration. of the frequency, timing and duration of flow extremes affect flood- and drought-adapted organisms? How rapidly can populations evolve in response to altered flow regimes? Here, we identify three modes of adaptation (life history, behavioral and morphological) that plants and animals use to survive floods and/or droughts. The mode of adaptation that an organism has determines its vulnerability to different kinds of flow regime alteration. The rate of evolution in response to flow regime alteration remains an open question. Because humans have now altered the flow regimes of most rivers and many streams, understanding the link between fitness and flow regime is crucial for the effective management and restoration of running water ecosystems. CR ADIS J, 2002, FRESHWATER BIOL, V47, P711 ALLAN JD, 1995, STREAM ECOLOGY STRUC BARRATSEGRETAIN MH, 2001, FRESHWATER BIOL, V46, P935 BATZLI JM, 1999, CAN J BOT, V77, P1373 BEISMANN H, 2000, J EXP BOT, V51, P617 BELLINGHAM PJ, 2000, OIKOS, V89, P409 BLOM CWPM, 1996, TRENDS ECOL EVOL, V11, P290 BLOM CWPM, 1999, PLANT BIOLOGY, V1, P261 BROCK MA, 2003, FRESHWATER BIOL, V48, P1207 BUNN SE, 1988, AUST J MAR FRESH RES, V39, P785 BUNN SE, 2002, ENVIRON MANAGE, V30, P492 COHEN D, 1966, J THEOR BIOL, V12, P119 COHEN D, 1967, J THEOR BIOL, V16, P1 DAVID BO, 2002, T AM FISH SOC, V131, P762 DEVRIES P, 1997, CAN J FISH AQUAT SCI, V54, P1685 DUDLEY RK, 1999, SOUTHWEST NAT, V44, P218 FAUSCH KD, 1997, ECOLOGY CONSERVATION, P131 FAUSCH KD, 2001, ECOL APPL, V11, P1438 FREEMAN MC, 2001, ECOL APPL, V11, P179 FRUTIGER A, 1996, FRESHWATER BIOL, V36, P497 GAUER U, 1997, PEDOBIOLOGIA, V41, P69 GETTY T, 2002, ANIM BEHAV 2, V63, P397 GRAF WL, 1993, SUSTAINING OUR WATER, P11 GRAY LJ, 1981, AM MIDL NAT, V106, P229 HANCOCK MA, 1997, MAR FRESHWATER RES, V48, P361 HENDRY AP, 2000, SCIENCE, V290, P516 HENDRY AP, 2001, GENETICA, V112, P515 HENDRY AP, 2003, EVOLUTION ILLUMINATE, P53 HOPPER KR, 1999, ANNU REV ENTOMOL, V44, P535 HUMPHRIES P, 1999, ENVIRON BIOL FISH, V56, P129 HUMPHRIES P, 2002, FRESHWATER BIOL, V47, P1307 HYNES HBN, 1970, ANNU REV ENTOMOL, V15, P25 HYNES HBN, 1976, ANNU REV ENTOMOL, V21, P135 IWASA Y, 1995, J THEOR BIOL, V172, P33 JENSEN AJ, 1999, FUNCT ECOL, V13, P778 JOHN KR, 1963, COPEIA, V1, P286 KARRENBERG S, 2002, FRESHWATER BIOL, V47, P733 KING AJ, 2003, CAN J FISH AQUAT SCI, V60, P773 LAPOINTE M, 2000, CAN J FISH AQUAT SCI, V57, P1120 LOPEZ OR, 2001, FUNCT ECOL, V15, P763 LYTLE DA, 1999, J INSECT BEHAV, V12, P1 LYTLE DA, 2001, AM NAT, V157, P525 LYTLE DA, 2002, ECOLOGY, V83, P370 MACKAY NJ, 1973, AUSTR J MARINE FRESH, V24, P95 MAHONEY JM, 1998, WETLANDS, V18, P634 MARCHETTI MP, 2001, ECOL APPL, V11, P530 MEFFE GK, 1984, ECOLOGY, V65, P1525 MINCKLEY WL, 1987, COMMUNITY EVOLUTIONA, P93 MONTGOMERY DR, 1996, CAN J FISH AQUAT SCI, V53, P1061 MONTGOMERY DR, 1999, CAN J FISH AQUAT SCI, V56, P377 NAESJE T, 1995, CAN J FISH AQUAT SCI, V52, P2190 NESLER TP, 1988, AM FISHERIES SOC S, V5, P68 POFF NL, 1989, CAN J FISH AQUAT SCI, V46, P1805 POFF NL, 1990, ENVIRON MANAGE, V14, P629 POFF NL, 1996, FRESHWATER BIOL, V36, P71 POFF NL, 1997, BIOSCIENCE, V47, P769 POFF NL, 2003, FRONT ECOL ENV, V6, P298 RICHTER BD, 1996, CONSERV BIOL, V10, P1163 ROFF DA, 2002, LIFE HIST EVOLUTION ROOD SB, 1990, ENVIRON MANAGE, V14, P451 ROOD SB, 2000, TREES-STRUCT FUNCT, V14, P248 ROOD SB, 2003, BIOSCIENCE, V53, P647 SPARKS JP, 1999, TREE PHYSIOL, V19, P453 STOCKWELL CA, 2003, TRENDS ECOL EVOL, V18, P94 TOWNSEND CR, 1994, FRESHWATER BIOL, V31, P265 USHERWOOD JR, 1997, J EXP BOT, V48, P1469 VANSTEENIS CGG, 1981, RHEOPHYTES WORLD ZWICK P, 1996, FRESHWATER BIOL, V35, P81 NR 68 TC 1 J9 TREND ECOL EVOLUT BP 94 EP 100 PY 2004 PD FEB VL 19 IS 2 GA 773PD UT ISI:000188931400010 ER PT J AU Khalil, EE TI Water strategies and technological development in Egyptian coastal areas SO DESALINATION LA English DT Article C1 Cairo Univ, Fac Engn, Dept Engn Mech, Cairo, Egypt. RP Khalil, EE, Cairo Univ, Fac Engn, Dept Engn Mech, Cairo, Egypt. AB The availability of fresh water and energy is the key factor in the planning of many countries' development, particularly those of large over-populated and areas. Potable water supply shortage and recent technological development have led to wider application of conventional, and yet advanced saline/brackish water desalination plants. The growing potable water demand in suburban and tourist Red Sea and Sinai resorts had prompted an organized national plan of implementation of desalination technologies [1]. The present work continues a series of activities to analyze the status quo of water demand in Egypt, and reviews the current research activities to establish the appropriate technology for adaptation, local manufacturing experiences, successes, unit size, process and economics. Water demand in a vastly growing and developing Egyptian community was analyzed as characterized by a rising standard of living, expansion of industrialization in mining and petroleum sectors and the vast expansion of tourist development [2]. With the still limited resources to support the infrastructure, the problem is acute. Khalil et al. [3] emphasized the importance of establishing a water master plan techno-economic assessment of the desalting process. The present work reviews the status quo in terms of water demand, availability, strategies, energy demand and new development in small and medium sized locally manufactured units. Assessment of some of the locally manufactured units currently in operation will be detailed and their economical viability investigated. The advantages and limitations, based on techno-economic and energy concepts of the application of different desalting processes in Egypt are outlined and discussed. CR ELFOULY MF, 1979, DESALINATION, V30, P205 ELHALLWAGY MM, 1995, 26301401 TTCSRF ELHALLWAGY MM, 1997, 26301401 TTCSRF ELZANATY E, 1995, 26301401 TTCSRF HELEL MM, 1983, 83012 FRCE MS ISSA S, 1999, LOCAL MANUFACTURE RE KHALIL EE, 1986, MS851017 FRCU KHALIL EE, 1987, DESALINATION, V64, P217 KHALIL EE, 2000, DESALINATION KHALIL EE, 2001, DESALINATION, V136, P57 KHALIL EE, 2001, P 2 LAT AM TECHN C E NR 11 TC 0 J9 DESALINATION BP 23 EP 30 PY 2004 PD AUG 15 VL 165 IS 1-3 GA 852FV UT ISI:000223741600003 ER PT J AU Liso, KR Aandahl, G Eriksen, S Alfsen, KH TI Preparing for climate change impacts in Norway's built environment SO BUILDING RESEARCH AND INFORMATION LA English DT Article C1 Norwegian Bldg Res Inst, N-0314 Oslo, Norway. CICERO, N-0318 Oslo, Norway. Stat Norway, N-0033 Oslo, Norway. RP Liso, KR, Norwegian Bldg Res Inst, POB 123 Blindern, N-0314 Oslo, Norway. AB This paper provides an overview of the Norwegian climate policy and of the practical implications of preparing Norway for climate change, with special emphasis on the challenges confronting the built environment. Although the Norwegian government has been relatively proactive in instituting measures aimed at halting global climate change, less attention has been paid to the challenge of adapting to climate change. The global climate system is likely to undergo changes, regardless of the implementation of abatement policies under the Kyoto Protocol or other regimes. The full range of impacts resulting from these changes is still uncertain; however, it is becoming increasingly clear that adaptation to climate change is necessary and inevitable within several sectors. The potential impacts of climate change in the built environment are now being addressed. Both the functionality of the existing built environment and the design of future buildings are likely to be altered by climate change impacts, and the expected implications of these new conditions are now investigated. However, measures aimed at adjustments within individual sectors, such as altering the criteria and codes of practice for the design and construction of buildings, constitute only a partial adaptation to climate change. In order to adapt effectively, larger societal and intersectoral adjustments are necessary. CR 2001, ECONOMIST 0203 2001, NY TIMES 0131 2002, NEW SCI, V175 *MIN ENV, 1991, GREENH EFF IMP MIT *MIN ENV, 2001, 54 MIN ENV *MIN ENV, 2002, 15 MIN ENV *MIN ENV, 2002, 54 MIN ENV *NAT OFF BUILD TEC, 1993, ORK 1992 *NOU, 2000, 200024 NOU MIN JUST ADGER N, 1996, APPROACHES VULNERABI, P1 BORNEHAG CG, 2001, INDOOR AIR, V11, P72 CAMILLERI M, 2001, BUILD RES INF, V29, P440 CHAMBERS R, 1989, IDS B, V20, P1 DOLAN AH, 2001, 26 U GUELPH DEP GEOG DOWNING TE, 1995, CLIMATE CHANGE WORLD, P183 ERIKSEN SH, 2002, DYNAMISM COPING LOCA GRAVES HM, 2000, POTENTIAL IMPLICATIO INGVALDSEN T, 1994, 163 NBI NORW BUILD R INGVALDSEN T, 2001, 308 NBI NORW BUILD R KELLY PM, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V47, P325 LISO KR, 2002, 2 INT BUILD PHYS C 2 LISO KR, 2002, CLIMATE 2000 BUILDIN LOENG H, 1995, CANADIAN SPECIAL PUB, V121, P691 LOWE R, 2001, 0104 CRISP CTR BUILT MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 NAESS LO, 2002, I DIMENSIONS CLIMATE OBRIEN KL, 2002, CLIMATIC CHANGE PALUTIKOF JP, 1997, EC IMPACTS HOT SUMME PARRY MLE, 2000, ASSESSMENT POTENTIAL SAELTHUN NR, 1998, CLIMATE CHANGE IMPAC SKAUGEN TE, 2002, 0202 DNMI NORW MET I SMIT B, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P223 SMITH JB, 2001, ISUMA, V2, P75 SYGNA L, 2001, OPPS SEM OSL 30 31 O TUCKER M, 1997, ECOL ECON, V22, P85 YOHE GW, 2002, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V12, P25 NR 36 TC 7 J9 BUILDING RES INFORM BP 200 EP 209 PY 2003 PD MAY-AUG VL 31 IS 3-4 GA 688EE UT ISI:000183419700002 ER PT J AU CHOKOR, BA ODEMERHO, FO TI LAND DEGRADATION ASSESSMENT BY SMALL-SCALE TRADITIONAL AFRICAN FARMERS AND IMPLICATIONS FOR SUSTAINABLE CONSERVATION MANAGEMENT SO GEOFORUM LA English DT Article C1 UNIV BENIN,DEPT GEOG & REG PLANNING,BENIN CITY,NIGERIA. SO ILLINOIS UNIV,DEPT GEOG 7 EARTH SCI,EDWARDSVILLE,IL 62026. AB The attainment of sustainable agricultural production in most African countries is seriously undermined by increasing land degradation problems. It is argued in this paper that successful adoption of sustainable agriculture in tropical Africa will depend on the concurrent implementation of well articulated sustainable conservation policies to deal with land degradation. Such policies need to recognise and utilize traditional systems of land evaluation and management in the development of appropriate coping mechanisms or adaptive strategies. The study is illustrated with a case study from the community of Nsit in south-eastern Nigeria. One hundred and eight farmers were interviewed and a group discussion with community leaders and a few selected farmers was held. This approach facilitated the exploration of the stock of indigenous knowledge and information about land degradation assessment and management held by small-scale traditional farming communities. The result shows that small-scale farmers in Nsit have an adequate grasp of the physical conditions of their surrounding world and are able to ascertain the major stages of land degradation in their community. The implications for the evolution of sustainable conservation management in Africa are articulated. CR *WORLD BANK, 1988, REN RES MAN AGR BARBIER EB, 1988, OCT INT CONS ENV SUS BARKER D, 1977, MARC9 CHELS COLL REP BARKER D, 1978, JOINT M IBG QUANTITA BOSERUP E, 1965, CONDITIONS AGR GROWT CONWAY GR, 1990, GREEN REVOLUTION SUS DAVIES TJ, 1987, SUBSTAINABILITY ISSU DOUGLAS GK, 1984, AGR SUSTAINABILITY C EWUSIE JY, 1980, ELEMENTS TROPICAL EC OKAFOR FC, 1987, APPL GEOGR, V7, P243 OKIGBO BN, 1990, SUSTAINABLE AGR SYST, P323 OLDEMERHO FO, 1992, GEOFORUM, V23, P499 OSUNADE MAA, 1988, PROF GEOGR, V40, P194 UZU S, 1990, COMMUNICATION WOODS LE, 1984, LAND DEGRADATION AUS NR 15 TC 2 J9 GEOFORUM BP 145 EP 154 PY 1994 PD MAY VL 25 IS 2 GA PK084 UT ISI:A1994PK08400003 ER PT J AU Seo, SNN Mendelsohn, R Munasinghe, M TI Climate change and agriculture in Sri Lanka: a Ricardian valuation SO ENVIRONMENT AND DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS LA English DT Article C1 Yale Univ, New Haven, CT 06520 USA. RP Seo, SNN, Yale Univ, New Haven, CT 06520 USA. AB This paper measures climate change impacts on Sri Lankan agriculture using the Ricardian method. The model examines the net revenue per hectare of the four most important crops in the country The limited range of temperature variation allows only a simple test of temperature impacts, but the greater range of precipitation across the country distinguishes more complex precipitation effects. We then examine the impacts of the climate predictions of five AOGCM models and two simple uniform change scenarios for Sri Lanka. The impacts of rainfall increases are predicted to be beneficial to the country as a whole in all five AOGCM scenarios, but temperature increases are predicted to be harmful. Nationally, the impacts vary from -11 billion rupees (-20 per cent) to +39 billion rupees (+72 per cent) depending on the climate scenarios. With warming, the already dry regions (the Northern and Eastern provinces), are expected to lose large portions of their current agriculture, but the cooler regions (the central highlands), are predicted to remain the same or increase their output. The paper reconfirms that climate change damages could be large in tropical developing countries, but highly dependent on the actual climate scenario. 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RP Biersack, A, Univ Oregon, Dept Anthropol, Eugene, OR 97403 USA. AB An earlier ecological anthropology defined its project within the compass of the idealism v. materialism debate. Culture was an adaptive tool, instrumental rather than formal; it was intelligible with respect to its material effects, not-as the idealists would maintain-in terms of itself, as an autonomous, self-determining order of reality. This argument was mounted with respect to bounded, stable, self-regulating, local, or at best regional entities and the environment they inhabited. All of the premises of the earlier ecology have since been challenged, and today's ecologies-symbolic, historical, and political-radically depart from the reductions and elisions of the ecological anthropology of the past. In particular, the new ecologies override the dichotomies that informed and enlivened the debates of the past-nature/culture, idealism/materialism-and they are informed by the literature on transnationalist flows and local-global articulations. This introduction positions Rappaport's work within this historical shift from a polarized field of mutually exclusive frameworks to today's synthetic new ecologies and their antireductive materialism. Rappaport's work, produced over three decades, serves, in and through its own transformations, as a bridge between the reductive materialism of the past and a new-materialist ecology. 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Syracuse Univ, Syracuse, NY 13244 USA. RP Barrett, CB, Cornell Univ, Ithaca, NY 14853 USA. AB This paper introduces a special issue featuring a set of papers on institutional arrangements for reconciling rural poverty reduction with renewable natural resources conservation in the low-income tropics. Collectively, these papers make four core points. First, synergies do not naturally emerge just because rural poverty reduction and renewable natural resources conservation are each appealing goals with common drivers and some intrinsic interlinkage. Second, it matters less which rules a community or country adopts than how well they monitor and enforce the rules they set. Third, flexibility and adaptability in design are critical to establishing cooperative partnerships that can advance both conservation and development goals. Fourth, multiscalar approaches are commonly desirable. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR ADAMS WM, 2003, SCIENCE, V302, P1915 ANDERSON A, 1991, SUBSITY NATURE ANGELSEN A, 2001, AGR TECHNOLOGIES TRO BALAND JM, 1996, HALTING DEGRADATION BALMFORD A, 2002, SCIENCE, V297, P950 BARRETT CB, 2001, BIOSCIENCE, V51, P497 BARRETT CB, 2002, NATURAL RESOURCES MA DIETZ T, 2003, SCIENCE, V302, P1907 GHIMIRE K, 1997, SOCIAL CHANGE CONSER GJERTSEN HE, 2004, LAND ECON, V80, P323 HANNA SS, 1995, PROPERTY RIGHTS ENV LEE DR, 2001, TRADEOFFS SYNERGIES NORTH D, 1990, I I CHANGE EC PERFOR OSTROM E, 1990, GOVT COMMONS EVOLUTI OTSUKA K, 2001, LAND TENURE NATURAL PRITCHETT L, 2003, WORLD DEV, V32, P191 RIBOT JC, 2002, DEMOCRATIC DECENTRAL VOSTI SA, 1997, SUSTAINABILITY GROWT NR 18 TC 1 J9 WORLD DEVELOP BP 193 EP 197 PY 2005 PD FEB VL 33 IS 2 GA 902RK UT ISI:000227374000001 ER PT J AU Luo, QY Bryan, B Bellotti, W Williams, M TI Spatial analysis of environmental change impacts on wheat production in Mid-Lower North, South Australia SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 Univ Adelaide, Dept Geog & Environm Studies, Adelaide, SA 5005, Australia. CSIRO Land & Water, Policy & Econ Res Unit, Glen Osmond, SA 5064, Australia. Univ Adelaide, Sch Agr & Wine, Adelaide, SA 5371, Australia. RP Luo, QY, Univ Adelaide, Dept Geog & Environm Studies, Adelaide, SA 5005, Australia. AB Three environmental change scenarios ( the best scenario, the most likely scenario and the worst scenario) were used by the APSIM ( Agricultural Production System sIMulator) Wheat module to study the possible impacts of future environmental change ( climate change plus pCO(2) change) on wheat production in the Mid-Lower North of South Australia. GIS software was used to manage spatial-climate data and spatial-soil data and to present the results. Study results show that grain yield ( kg ha(-1)) was adversely affected under the worst environmental change scenario (-100% similar to -42%) and the most likely environmental change scenario (-58% similar to -3%). Grain nitrogen content (% N) either increased or decreased depending on the environmental change scenarios used and climate divisions (-25% similar to +42%). Spatial variability was found for projected impact outcomes within climate divisions indicating the necessity of including the spatial distribution of soil properties in impact assessment. CR *CSIRO, 2001, CLIM PROJ AUSTR, P8 *IPCC, 2000, SPEC REP EM SCEN SUM *IPCC, 2001, CLIM CHANG 2001 SCI BAETHGEN WE, 1995, ASA SPEC PUBL, V59, P207 BRKLACICH M, 1995, ASA SPEC PUBL, V59, P147 DELECOLLE R, 1995, ASA SPEC PUBL, V59, P241 EASTERLING WE, 1996, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V80, P1 HOWDEN SM, 1999, 9913 CSIRO, P24 HOWDEN SM, 1999, 9914 CSIRO, V51 HOWDEN SM, 1999, GLOBAL CHANGE IMPACT HOWDEN SM, 2002, EFFECTS CLIM CHANG V, P219 HULME M, 1999, AGRON J, V79, P667 KEATING BA, 2003, EUR J AGRON, V18, P267 LUO QY, 2003, THESIS U ADELAIDE MENZHULIN GV, 1995, ASA SPEC PUBL, V59, P275 QURESHI A, 1994, IMPLICATIONA CLIMATE RAO DG, 1994, IMPLICATIONS CLIMATE REILLY JM, 1999, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V43, P645 REILLY JM, 1999, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V43, P745 REYENGA PJ, 1999, ENVIRON MODELL SOFTW, V14, P297 REYENGA PJ, 1999, MODSIM 99 P INT C MO ROSENZWEIG C, 1998, UNDERSTANDING OPTION ROTTER R, 1999, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V43, P651 TUBIELLO FN, 1995, AGR SYST, V49, P135 WANG E, 2001, APSIM WHEAT MODULE W WANG YP, 1992, CLIM RES, V2, P131 YUNUSA IAM, 2004, IN PRESS AUST J EXP, V44 NR 27 TC 0 J9 CLIMATIC CHANGE BP 213 EP 228 PY 2005 PD SEP VL 72 IS 1-2 GA 971RS UT ISI:000232402500010 ER PT J AU OHTSUKA, R INAOKA, T UMEZAKI, M NAKADA, N ABE, T TI LONG-TERM SUBSISTENCE ADAPTATION TO THE DIVERSIFIED PAPUA-NEW-GUINEA ENVIRONMENT - HUMAN ECOLOGICAL ASSESSMENTS AND PROSPECTS SO GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS LA English DT Article C1 KUMAMOTO UNIV,SCH MED,DEPT PUBL HLTH,KUMAMOTO 860,JAPAN. RP OHTSUKA, R, UNIV TOKYO,SCH INT HLTH,DEPT HUMAN ECOL,TOKYO 113,JAPAN. AB Adaptive diversity of Papua New Guinea peoples, represented by population densities varying from less than 1 person to more than 100 persons/km(2), is mostly attributable to their agricultural systems in accordance with the natural and sociocultural environment. Comparison of longterm adaptation among several populations selected for highland/lowland status and degree of modernization is expected to clarify the causal relationships and to predict future potential, This article discusses relationships between productivity and sustainability of agriculture and population dynamics in the agrodiversified environment in Papua New Guinea. CR ALLEN BJ, PLEC NEWS VIEWS, P21 ALLEN BJ, 1992, HUMAN BIOL PAPUA NEW, P36 BALISSSMITH T, 1985, SINGAPORE J TROPICAL, V6, P101 BARRAU J, 1959, ECON BOT, V13, P151 CROSBY E, 1976, ARCHAEOL PHYS ANTHR, V11, P138 DAVIDSON JM, 1979, PREHISTORY POLYNESIA, P222 DOVRING F, 1956, LAND LABOR EUROPE 19 FEIL DK, 1987, EVLUTION HIGHLAND PA GOLSON J, 1977, SUNDA SAHUL PREHISTO, P601 GROSSMAN LS, 1984, PEASANTS SUBSISTENCE KIRCH PV, 1979, PREHISTORY POLYNESIA, P286 MCDOWELL N, 1988, LASER MONOGRAPH, V27 MORREN GEB, 1987, HUM ECOL, V15, P301 OHHTSUKA R, 1977, SUNDA SAHUL PREHISTO, P465 OHTSUKA R, 1983, ECOLOGY SAGO EATERS OHTSUKA R, 1985, RECENT ADV INDOPACIF, P343 OHTSUKA R, 1986, AM J PHYS ANTHROPOL, V71, P13 OHTSUKA R, 1990, POPULATION ECOLOGY H OHTSUKA R, 1990, POPULATION ECOLOGY H, P211 OHTSUKA R, 1995, APPROACHES ECLOGICAL, P238 OHTTSKA R, 1994, J BIOSOC SCI, V26, P395 PURSEGLOVE JW, 1982, 2ND P PAP NEW GUIN F, P51 RILEY ID, 1983, J HUM EVOL, V12, P125 RILEY ID, 1992, HUMAN BIOL PAPUA NEW, P67 SHAW B, 1985, 20 I NAT AFF DISC PA SUDA K, 1990, MAN CULTURE OCEANIA, V6, P99 SUDA K, 1993, MAN CULTURE OCEANIA, V9, P69 TOWNSEND PK, 1982, LASER44 I APPL SOC E WADDELL E, 1972, MOUND BUILDERS AGR P WOLF ER, 1966, PEASANTS WOOD AW, 1985, 5 U PAP NEW GUIN OCC NR 31 TC 1 J9 GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANGE BP 347 EP 353 PY 1995 PD SEP VL 5 IS 4 GA TB627 UT ISI:A1995TB62700009 ER PT J AU Ziervogel, G Calder, R TI Climate variability and rural livelihoods: assessing the impact of seasonal climate forecasts in Lesotho SO AREA LA English DT Article C1 Stockholm Environm Inst, Oxford Off, Oxford OX1 1QT, England. RP Ziervogel, G, Stockholm Environm Inst, Oxford Off, 10B Littlegate St, Oxford OX1 1QT, England. AB Climate variability acutely affects rural livelihoods and agricultural productivity, yet it is just one of many stresses that vulnerable rural households have to cope with. A livelihood approach is used to assess the potential role that seasonal climate forecasts might play in increasing adaptive capacity in response to climate variability, using Lesotho as a case study. An examination of the assets and strategies that rural households employ enables a holistic assessment of the impact seasonal forecasts could have on rural livelihoods. This research thereby bridges macro-level variability with local-level impacts and adaptation to provide insight into the dynamics of forecast use and impact among vulnerable groups. CR *CARE S AFR, 1999, HOUS LIV ASS HOUS LI *CVAP, 2000, MAST CLIM COMP *IPCC, 2001, CLIM CHANG 2001 SYNT *LNVAC, 2002, LES EM FOOD SEC ASS *SADC FANR VULN AS, 2003, ID IMP HIV AIDS FOOD AGRAWALA S, 2001, SCI TECHNOL HUM VAL, V26, P454 ARCHER ERM, 2003, B AM METEOROLOGI NOV BASHER R, 2001, INT WORKSH 16 20 OCT BEZUIDENHOUT CN, 2001, WORKSH S AFR SUG TEC BLAIKIE PM, 1994, RISK NATURAL HAZARDS, V1, P1 BLENCH R, 1999, 47 OV DEV I BOHLE HG, 1994, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V4, P37 BOHN L, 2003, COPING CLIMATE VARIA, P97 BROAD K, 2002, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V54, P415 CALDER R, 2000, TEAM PROJECT MONITOR CARNEY D, 1998, APPROACHES SUSTAINAB CHAKELA QK, 1999, STATE ENV LESOTHO 19 CHAMBERS R, 1994, WORLD DEV, V22, P1253 CLEAVER F, 2001, PARTICIPATION NEW TY, P36 CRUSH J, 2001, J S AFR STUD, V27, P5 ELLIS F, 2000, RURAL LIVELIHOODS DI FRANCIS E, 2000, MAKING LIVING CHANGI GAY J, 2000, POVERTY LIVELIHOODS GODDARD L, 2001, INT J CLIMATOL, V21, P1111 HAGMANN J, 1999, 94 AGREN ODI HAMMER GL, 2000, APPL SEASONAL CLIMAT, V21 HUDSON J, 2003, COPING CLIMATE VARIA KELLY PM, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V47, P325 KLOPPER E, 1999, WATER SA, V25, P311 MARSHALL GR, 1996, AUST J AGR ECON, V40, P211 MASON SJ, 1996, WATER SA, V22, P203 MOCHEBELELE MT, 2000, WORLD DEV, V28, P143 MOHASI M, 1999, LAND LIVELIHOODS SO MURPHY SJ, 2001, NAT HAZARDS, V23, P171 NELSON N, 1995, POWER PARTICIPATORY OBRIEN KL, 2000, 200003 CICERO U OSL OBRIEN KL, 2003, COPING CLIMATE VARIA, P197 ORLOVE B, 1999, 993 U CAL I INT STUD PALMER TN, 1994, Q J ROY METEOR SOC, V120, P755 PATT A, 2001, DECISION POLICY, V6, P105 PATT A, 2002, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V12, P185 PESHOANE LA, 2000, LES MET SERV NAT SEA PFAFF A, 1999, NATURE, V397, P645 PHILLIPS J, 2001, AM SOC AGRONOMY SPEC, V63, P87 PLANT S, 2000, APPL SEASONAL CLIMAT, P23 PULWARTY RS, 1997, B AM METEOROL SOC, V78, P381 RAYNER S, 1998, HUMAN CHOICE CLIMATE, V1 RONCOLI C, 2000, OPPORTUNITIES CONSTR SCOONES I, 1996, HAZARDS OPPORTUNITIE SIVAKUMAR MVK, 2000, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V103, P11 SMIT B, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P223 SMITH JB, 2001, THESIS UWITWATERSRAN STERN P, 1999, MAKING CLIMATE FOREC TURNER S, 2001, LIVELIHOODS LESOTHO VOGEL C, 2000, S AFRICAN GEOGRAPHIC, V82, P107 WALKER S, 2001, ASSESSMENT COMMUNICA WASHINGTON R, 1999, GEOGR J 3, V165, P255 WHITESIDE M, 1998, 36 ODI YOHE GW, 2002, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V12, P25 ZIERVOGEL G, IN PRESS CLIMATIC CH ZIERVOGEL G, IN PRESS GEOGRAPHICA ZIERVOGEL G, 2001, BAS VILL OP M GLOB E ZUBAIR L, 2001, IND PER COUNTR OP M NR 63 TC 2 J9 AREA BP 403 EP 417 PY 2003 PD DEC VL 35 IS 4 GA 755AN UT ISI:000187365800007 ER PT J AU Lehner, B Czisch, G Vassolo, S TI The impact of global change on the hydropower potential of Europe: a model-based analysis SO ENERGY POLICY LA English DT Article C1 Univ Gesamthsch Kassel, Ctr Environm Syst Res, D-34109 Kassel, Germany. Univ Kassel, Inst Solare Energieversorgungstech, D-34119 Kassel, Germany. RP Lehner, B, World Wildlife Fund US, Conservat Sci Program, 1250 24th St,NW, Washington, DC 20037 USA. AB This study presents a model-based approach for analyzing the possible effects of global change on Europe's hydropower potential at a country scale. By comparing current conditions of climate and water use with future scenarios, an overview is provided of today's potential for hydroelectricity generation and its mid- and long-term prospects. The application of the global water model WaterGAP for discharge calculations allows for an integrated assessment, taking both climate and socioeconomic changes into account. This study comprises two key parts: First, the 'gross' hydropower potential is analyzed, in order to outline the general distribution and trends in hydropower capabilities across Europe. Then, the assessment focuses on the 'developed' hydropower potential of existing hydropower plants, in order to allow for a more realistic picture of present and future electricity production for the second part, a new data set has been developed which geo-references 5991 European hydropower stations and distinguishes them into run-of-river and reservoir stations. The results of this study present strong indications that, following moderate climate and global change scenario assumptions, severe future alterations in discharge regimes have to be expected, leading to unstable regional trends in hydropower potentials with reductions of 25% and more for southern and southeastern European countries. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *EEA, 1999, 2 EEA *EIA, 1999, INT EN ANN 1999 EL *EIA, 2000, INT EN OUTL 2000 *EIA, 2001, INT EN ANN 2001 CARB *ESRI, 1998, ARCATLAS *EU, 2000, 1999 ANN EN REV EN E *EUR, 1997, COST HYDR UN EL IND *EUR, 1997, HYDR EN VECT PROGR D *EUR, 1997, STUD IMP HARN HYDR R *GRDC, 1999, LONG TERM MEAN MONTH *IEA, 1999, KEY WORLD EN STAT *IPCC, 1992, CLIM CHANG 1992 SUPP *IPCC, 2000, SPEC REP EM SCEN INT *IPCC, 2001, 3 ASS REP CLIM CHANG MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 *NIMA, 2001, DAT FOR GEOGR FEAT N *NORDEL, 2000, STAT 1999 *UCTE, 1999, LANGFR ENTW ABFL UCP *UCTE, 2000, UCPTE STAT YB 1999 *UCTE, 2001, UCTE STAT YB 2000 *UDI, 2000, WORLD EL POW PLANTS *UNIPEDE, 1998, EUROPROG 1998 PROGR *USGS, 2000, HYDROIK EL DER DAT *WORLS COMM DAMS, 2000, DAMS DEV NEW FRAM DE ALCAMO J, 1998, GLOBAL CHAMGE SCENAR ALCAMO J, 2003, HYDROLOG SCI J, V48, P317 ALCAMO J, 2003, HYDROLOG SCI J, V48, P339 ARNEIL NW, 2000, EV5VCT93O293 ARNELL NW, 1999, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V9, P5 DOLL P, 2002, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V54, P269 DOLL P, 2002, J HYDROL, V258, P214 DOLL P, 2003, J HYDROL, V270, P105 FEIX O, 2000, COMMUNICATION GORDON C, 2000, CLIM DYNAM, V16, P147 HENRI S, 2002, GENES IMMUN, V3, P1 HULME M, 2001, CLIMATE RES, V17, P145 LOVSETH J, 1995, RENEW ENERG, V6, P207 NEW M, 2000, J CLIMATE, V13, P2217 PARRY ML, 2000, EUROPE ACACIA PROJEC ROCKNER E, 1999, J CLIMATE, V12, P3004 VOIGTLANDER P, 1999, REGENERATIVER STROM, P15 WATSON RT, 1998, REGIONAL IMPACTS CLI, V1, P1 NR 42 TC 0 J9 ENERG POLICY BP 839 EP 855 PY 2005 PD MAY VL 33 IS 7 GA 891QV UT ISI:000226596500002 ER PT J AU RAPPAPORT, RA TI DISTINGUISHED LECTURE IN GENERAL ANTHROPOLOGY - THE ANTHROPOLOGY OF TROUBLE SO AMERICAN ANTHROPOLOGIST LA English DT Article RP RAPPAPORT, RA, UNIV MICHIGAN,DEPT ANTHROPOL,ANN ARBOR,MI 48109. CR BATESON G, 1973, STEPS ECOLOGY MIND, P346 BENEDICT R, 1946, CHRYSANTHEMUM SWORD FLANNERY KV, 1972, ANNU REV ECOL SYST, V3, P399 KUNG H, 1971, INFALLIBLE INQUIRY MARCUS GE, 1986, ANTHR CULTURAL CRITI MESSERSCHMIDT DA, 1981, ANTHR HOME N AM METH RAPPAPORT RA, 1977, EVOLUTION SOCIAL SYS, V1, P49 RAPPAPORT RA, 1979, ECOLOGY MEANING RELI, P145 SLOBODKIN LB, 1974, QUART REV BIOL, V49, P181 NR 9 TC 24 J9 AMER ANTHROPOL BP 295 EP 303 PY 1993 PD JUN VL 95 IS 2 GA LL485 UT ISI:A1993LL48500002 ER PT J AU Folke, C Carpenter, SR Elmqvist, T Gunderson, LH Holling, CS Walker, BH TI Resilience and sustainable development: Building adaptive capacity in a world of transformations SO AMBIO LA English DT Article C1 Stockholm Univ, Dept Syst Ecol, SE-10691 Stockholm, Sweden. Stockholm Univ, Interdisciplinary Ctr Nat Resources & Environm Re, SE-10691 Stockholm, Sweden. Univ Wisconsin, Ctr Limnol, Madison, WI 53706 USA. Emory Univ, Dept Environm Studies, Atlanta, GA 30322 USA. Univ Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611 USA. CSIRO, Div Sustainable Ecosyst, Resilience Alliance, Canberra, ACT, Australia. RP Folke, C, Stockholm Univ, Dept Syst Ecol, SE-10691 Stockholm, Sweden. AB Emerging recognition of two fundamental errors underpinning past polices for natural resource issues heralds awareness of the need for a worldwide fundamental change in thinking and in practice of environmental management. The first error has been an implicit assumption that ecosystem responses to human use are linear predictable and controllable. The second has been an assumption that human and natural systems can be treated independently. However, evidence that has been accumulating in diverse regions all over the world suggests that natural and social systems behave in nonlinear ways, exhibit marked thresholds in their dynamics, and that social-ecological systems act as strongly coupled, complex and evolving integrated systems. This article is a summary of a report prepared on behalf of the Environmental Advisory Council to the Swedish Government, as input to the process of the World Summit on Sustainable Development (WSSD) in Johannesburg, South Africa in 26 August 4 September 2002. We use the concept of resilience-the capacity to buffer change, learn and develop-as a framework for understanding how to sustain and enhance adaptive capacity in a complex world of rapid transformations. Two useful tools for resilience-building in social-ecological systems are structured scenarios and active adaptive management. These tools require and facilitate a social context with flexible and open institutions and multi-level governance systems that allow for learning and increase adaptive capacity without foreclosing future development options. CR ADGER WN, 2001, LIVING ENV CHANGE SO BERKES F, IN PRESS NAVIGATING BERKES F, 1998, LINKING SOCIAL ECOLO, V1, P1 CARPENTER SR, 2001, BIOSCIENCE, V51, P451 CARPENTER SR, 2001, ECOLOGY ACHIEVEMENT, P357 CARPENTER SR, 2001, ECOSYSTEMS, V4, P1 COSTANZA R, 1993, BIOSCIENCE, V43, P345 DANELL K, IN PRESS FOREST ECOL ESTES JA, 1995, ECOL MONOGR, V65, P75 FOKE C, 2002, ICSU SERIES SCI SUST, V3 GUNDERSON LH, 1995, BARRIERS BRIDGES REN, V1, P1 GUNDERSON LH, 2001, ECOL ECON, V37, P371 GUNDERSON LH, 2002, PANARCHY UNDERSTANDI, V1, P1 HOLLAND JH, 1995, HIDDEN ORDER ADAPTIO HOLLING CS, 1986, SUSTAINABLE DEV BIOS, V1, P1 HOLLING CS, 1996, CONSERV BIOL, V10, P328 HOLLING CS, 2001, ECOSYSTEMS, V4, P390 KASPERSON JX, 2001, GLOBAL ENV RISK LEVIN SA, 1999, FRAGILE DOMINIONS CO MCINTOSH RJ, 2000, WAY WIND BLOWS CLIMA NYSTROM M, 2000, TRENDS ECOL EVOL, V15, P413 OLSSON P, 2001, ECOSYSTEMS, V4, P85 OSTROM E, 1999, SCIENCE, V284, P278 PETERSON GD, IN PRESS RESILIENCE POST RR, 2002, FISHERIES, V27, P6 RASKIN P, 2002, GREAT TRANSITION PRO REDMAN CL, 1999, HUMAN IMPACT ANCIENT SCHEFFER M, 2001, NATURE, V413, P591 STEELE JH, 1998, ECOL APPL S, V8, S33 WALKER BH, 1993, AMBIO, V22, P80 WALTERS CJ, 2001, CANADIAN J FISHERIES, V58, P1 ZIMOV SA, 1995, AM NAT, V146, P765 NR 32 TC 8 J9 AMBIO BP 437 EP 440 PY 2002 PD AUG VL 31 IS 5 GA 595BA UT ISI:000178085900008 ER PT J AU Bradshaw, B Smit, B TI Subsidy removal and agroecosystem health SO AGRICULTURE ECOSYSTEMS & ENVIRONMENT LA English DT Article C1 UNIV GUELPH,DEPT GEOG,GUELPH,ON N1G 2W1,CANADA. AB Changes in government policy, such as the current reform of agricultural subsidies in Canada and elsewhere, are known to influence the condition of agricultural systems. Adopting an agroecosystem health framework, whereby change in subsidization is interpreted as a stress on an agroecosystem which may alter system health, this paper assesses potential environmental implications arising from the removal of economic subsidies in commercial agriculture by (1) documenting the current state of, and trends in, the economic subsidization of OECD and Canadian agriculture; (2) conceptualizing the problem of subsidy removal within an agricultural systems model; (3) empirically illustrating the short term impacts of subsidy removal in the case of New Zealand pastoral agriculture post-1984. Existing theory suggests two possible outcomes resulting from subsidy and regulatory reform. A reduction in input or output subsidies, such as those provided to fertilizer applications or upland pasture production, may result in a reduction in the use of inputs and the production of outputs, thereby reducing the intensity of production and hence improving agroecosystem (environmental) health. Conversely, the transfer of risk from the collective to the individual coupled with an increased reliance upon the market and its reduced marginal returns, may shorten planning horizons of individual farmers, resulting in more exploitative use of the environment, and hence deteriorated agroecosystem (environmental) health. Based on observed resource use changes in New Zealand pastoral agriculture, where large scale subsidy and regulatory reform was undertaken in the post-1984 period, the short term response to subsidy removal indicates a decrease in farming intensity brought upon by reduced input use and production levels, thereby potentially improving agroecosystem (environmental) health. In contrast, the longer term resource use behaviour, while not yet clear, may indicate the reverse. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science B.V. 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Oregon State Univ, Corvallis, OR 97331 USA. AB Under the Magnuson-Stevens Fishery Conservation and Management Act (MSFCMA) and other legal mandates, NOAA's National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) is conducting basic social science research on fishing communities. This basic research differs from issue-driven social impact assessments in that it does not address pending policy changes or specified locations. As a consequence, NMFS's basic social science research must cover very large geographic scales and address a broad array of analytical issues. These needs are in tension with the traditional ethnographic methods of anthropology and the MSFCMA's focus on the community as a unit of analysis. This paper describes how anthropologists at NMFS's Alaska Fisheries Science Center and Northwest Fisheries Science Center navigate these conflicting imperatives by adopting large-scale community profiling using social and fishing indicators informed by ethnographic site visits, and advocating a "nested-scale" analytical framework that imbricates the community level analytical unit with macro-level considerations related to regional and global forces and micro-level dynamics related to intra-community heterogeneity. CR *EPA, 1998, FIN GUID INC ENV JUS *N EC INC, 2001, SECT REG PROF N PAC *NAT RES COUNC, 1999, SHAR FISH NAT POL IN *NMFS, 2001, GUID SOC IMP ASS *NMFS, 2002, FISH US 2001 *NMFS, 2003, FISH US 2002 *NMFS, 2003, FISH US *USDA, 2004, NAT REP SUST FOR 20 ACHESON J, 1988, LOBSTER GANGS MAINE ACHESON JM, 1975, HUM ECOL, V3, P183 BEEBE J, 2001, RAPID ASSESSMENT PRO BEEBE J, 2005, ENCY SOCIAL MEASURE, P285 BERKES F, 1989, COMMON PROPERTY RESO BROSIUS JP, 1999, CURR ANTHROPOL, V40, P277 BRYANT RL, 1998, PROG PHYS GEOG, V22, P79 BUNCE L, 2000, SOCIOECONOMIC MANUAL COBB CW, 1998, LESSONS LEARNED HIST CRESWELL JW, 1998, QUALITATIVE INQUIRY DEWEES CM, 1988, HUM ORGAN, V47, P224 DIENER E, 1997, SOC INDIC RES, V40, P189 FERRIS AL, 1998, SOC FORCES, V66, P601 GAHIN R, 2001, NATL CIVIC REV, V90, P347 GEETZ C, 2000, INTERPRETATION CULTU GHAI D, 1995, GRASSROOTS ENV ACTIO GUPTA A, 1997, ANTHR LOCATIONS BOUN, P1 JACOB S, 2003, IDENTIFYING FISHING JACOB S, 2005, HUM ORGAN, V64, P374 JOHNSON JC, 1990, SELECTING ETHNOGRAPH KEARNEY M, 1995, ANNU REV ANTHROPOL, V24, P547 LAMUG CB, 1994, GUIDE PATICIPATORY R LANGDONPOLLOCK J, 2004, W COAST MARINE FISH MCCAY BJ, 1979, N ATLANTIC MARITIME, P155 MCCAY BJ, 1987, QUESTION COMMONS MCCAY BJ, 1998, OYSTER WARS PUBLIC T MCCRACKEN J, 1990, RAPID RURAL APPRAISA MILLER ML, 1979, HUM ORGAN, V38, P377 MILTON K, 1996, ENV CULTURAL THEORY MOORE WE, 1965, P SOC STAT SECT AM S, P144 ORBACH M, 1977, HUNTERS SEAMEN ENTRE ORTH GC, 1987, AM ETHNOL, V14, P377 PACKAGE C, 2004, AFSC Q PAOLISSO M, 2001, HUM ORGAN, V60, P1 PEET R, 1996, LIB ECOL ENV DEV SOC PELTO PJ, 1978, ANTHR INQUIRY STRUCT PENA D, 2001, INT WORKSH TRANSB PE PIDO MD, 1996, HDB RAPID APPRAISAL RAPPAPORT RA, 1967, PIGS ANCESTORS RITUA, V1, P1 ROBBINS MC, 1969, AM ANTHROPOL, V71, P276 RUSSELL HB, 2000, SOCIAL RES METHODS Q SEPEZ J, 2005, MANAGING FISHERIES E SEPEZ JA, 2005, NMFSAFSC160 NOAA SMITH N, 1992, POSTMODERNISM SOCIAL, P57 STEWART J, 1955, THEORY CULTURE CHANG VANCLAY F, 2006, ENVIRON IMPACT ASSES, V26, P3 WILLIAMS RW, 1999, POLIT GEOGR, V18, P49 WILSON D, 1998, SOCIAL CULTURAL ASSE NR 56 TC 0 J9 HUM ORGAN BP 280 EP 293 PY 2006 PD FAL VL 65 IS 3 GA 083MH UT ISI:000240459500006 ER PT J AU Beniston, M TI Climatic change and its possible impacts in the alpine region SO REVUE DE GEOGRAPHIE ALPINE-JOURNAL OF ALPINE RESEARCH LA English DT Article C1 Univ Fribourg, Dept Geosci, CH-1700 Fribourg, Switzerland. RP Beniston, M, Univ Fribourg, Dept Geosci, CH-1700 Fribourg, Switzerland. AB This paper provides a brief overview of climatic change as observed in the 20(th) century in the alpine region, and the shifts in mean and extreme climates that may occur in coming decades if so-called << global warming >> is of the amplitude and speed projected by numerous climate models. The impacts of climatic change may be significant on many fragile systems in the mountain environments, notably snow and ice, hydrology, vegetation, natural hazards, and of course on humans and their economic activities, and these will be briefly discussed. Finally, the overview paper is completed with some remarks concerning adaptation options in the face of climatic change, notably through the application of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. CR *IPCC, 2001, CLIM CHANG INT PAN C ARNELL NW, 1999, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V9, P5 BENISTON M, 1998, TURBULENCE CLIMATE BENISTON M, 2002, THEOR APPL CLIMATOL, V71, P29 BENISTON M, 2003, THEOR APPL CLIMATOL, V76, P125 BENISTON M, 2004, CLIMATIC CHANGE IMPA CHRISTENSEN JH, 2002, EOS AM GEOPHYS UNION, V83, P13 CHRISTENSEN JH, 2003, NATURE, V421, P805 DEHN M, 2000, ENG GEOL, V55, P193 DIAZ HF, 1997, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V36, P253 FREI C, 1998, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V25, P1431 GIORGI F, 1999, J GEOPHYS RES-ATMOS, V104, P6335 GOYETTE S, 2001, CLIM DYNAM, V18, P145 GRAHAM P, 2005, UNPUB CLIMATIC CHANG HAEBERLI W, 1995, WMO B, V44, P23 HOLTEN JI, 1992, NINA FORSKNINGSRAPPO, V29, P1 HURRELL JW, 1995, SCIENCE, V269, P676 JONES PD, 2003, J CLIMATE, V16, P206 KELLER F, 2003, ARCT ANTARCT ALP RES, V35, P361 MYNENI RB, 1997, NATURE, V386, P698 SCHAR C, 2004, NATURE, V427, P332 WOODWARD FI, 1995, GLOBAL BIOGEOCHEM CY, V9, P471 NR 22 TC 0 J9 REV GEOGR ALP BP 25 EP 32 PY 2005 PD JUN VL 93 IS 2 GA 040NA UT ISI:000237384300002 ER PT J AU Arnell, NW Delaney, EK TI Adapting to climate change: Public water supply in England and Wales SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 Univ Southampton, Sch Geog, Southampton SO17 1BJ, Hants, England. Univ Southampton, Tyndall Ctr Climate Change Res, Southampton SO17 1BJ, Hants, England. RP Arnell, NW, Univ Southampton, Sch Geog, Southampton SO17 1BJ, Hants, England. AB This paper describes an assessment of the ways in which water supply companies in England and Wales are adapting to climate change, evaluated in the context of a model of the adaptation process. The four components of the model are (i) awareness of and concern about the potential impacts of climate change, (ii) adaptation strategy, (iii) the concept of an adaptation space from which options are selected, and (iv) the notion that three groups of factors influence awareness, strategy and option selection: susceptibility to change, internal characteristics of the organisation, and regulatory and market context. Public water supply in England and Wales is provided by private sector companies, subject to environmental and economic regulation. Hydrological simulations suggest that climate change has the potential to reduce the reliability of supply sources over the next few decades. The industry in December 2004 completed a review of investment requirements over the next five years. Awareness of climate change is high in the water industry, but by developing assessment procedures and incorporating them into the investment review the regulators forced companies to consider explicitly the potential impacts of climate change in a consistent and rigorous manner. These analyses combined climate change with other pressures on water resources, and in practice companies did not attribute specific investment decisions or proposals to climate change or indeed any other individual drivers. The broad strategy adopted by all water supply companies - to maintain standards of service - is determined by regulatory controls and market considerations, but the degree of concern about the impacts of climate change and precise adaptation options necessary to address supply-demand imbalances varied between water supply companies, reflecting local geographic conditions. The water supply companies and regulators have different perspectives on the relative merits of supply-side and demand-side measures, reflecting different organisational priorities. The 2004 investment review determined that no specific actions were necessary to deal with future climate change, but that measures set in place - in terms of methodologies and investment in investigations into specific resource developments - provided a sound foundation for more specific actions in the next investment review in five years time. The paper concludes by summarising the factors assisting and constraining adaptation over the next few decades. 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RP Hauenstein, W, Schweizer Wasserwirtschaftsverband, Rutistr 3A, CH-5401 Baden, Switzerland. AB Since the extremely dry and hot summer of 2003, the question of what effects ongoing climate change will have on hydropower in Switzerland-mainly on the amount of electricity that will be produced, but also on the safety of hydropower plants-has often arisen. Even though predictions of the potential impacts of climate change on hydropower generation are characterized by uncertainty, it can be assumed that within the next 25 to 30 years no significant adaptation of the infrastructure for hydropower generation will be urgently needed in Switzerland. Therefore, there are no major institutional challenges to be faced in this context. On the other hand, extending hydropower generation units to further reduce the emission of greenhouse gases will constitute a challenge to existing institutional arrangements, in Switzerland and elsewhere. In the case of Switzerland, interest in protecting waterways and landscapes will conflict with future efforts to mitigate climate change. Current legislation is based on sectoral considerations and not on a holistic vision of sustainable development. Thus this framework has some shortcomings in terms of constructive negotiation of processes leading towards long-term sustainable development. CR *SWISS FED OFF EN, 2003, SCHWEIZ GES 2002 *SWISS FED OFF WAT, 2003, EN WIRD EL ERNT KRAF *WORLD EN COUNC, 2001, SURV EN RES GASSER D, 2003, WASSER ENERGIE LUFT, V95, P337 HAUENSTEIN W, 2000, HYDRO 2000 MAKING HY, P695 ROTHLISBERGER G, 1997, WASSER ENERGIE LUFT, V89, P79 NR 6 TC 0 J9 MT RES DEV BP 321 EP 325 PY 2005 PD NOV VL 25 IS 4 GA 997GB UT ISI:000234232200006 ER PT J AU Wall, E Smit, B TI Climate change adaptation in light of sustainable agriculture SO JOURNAL OF SUSTAINABLE AGRICULTURE LA English DT Article C1 Univ Guelph, Fac Environm Sci, Guelph, ON N1G 2W1, Canada. RP Wall, E, Univ Guelph, Fac Environm Sci, Blackwood Hall,Room 202, Guelph, ON N1G 2W1, Canada. AB Agricultural activity has always included,adaptation to a number of diverse stresses and opportunities-elements that continue influencing developments in the agri-food sector. Climate and weather conditions are a good example of factors that require on-going adaptation. With climate change they take on even more significance. Based oil data from Canadian producers, this article identifies several climate and weather risk adaptation strategies currently in use and notes their close links to sustainable agriculture practices. The article concludes that the mutually supportive relationship between sustainable agriculture and climate change adaptation could be used to justify more government support for sustainable agriculture policies and programs. CR *C CIARN AGR, 2003, C CIARN AGR C CIARN *C CIARN AGR, 2004, C CIARN AGR M FEBR 2 *CCME, 2003, DROGUHT CLIM NAT PEO *NAT RES CAN, 2002, CLIM CHANG IMP AD CA *SSCAF, 2003, CLIM CHANG WE AR RIS BRYANT CR, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P181 CHIOTTI QP, 1997, AGR RESTRUCTURING SU, P201 COSTANZA R, 1992, ECOSYSTEM HLTH NEW G EASTERLING WE, 1996, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V80, P1 GOSS D, 2003, CANADIAN GEOGRAP MAY, P40 IKERD J, 1997, UNDERSTANDING MANAGI LIGHTFOOT C, 2001, J SUSTAIN AGR, V19, P9 LOBELL DB, 2003, SCIENCE, V299, P1032 LUO QY, 1999, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V43, P729 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 MENDELSOHN R, 1994, AM ECON REV, V84, P753 MILESTAD R, 2003, J SUSTAIN AGR, V22, P81 PIELKE R, 2003, PERSPECTIVES WIN, P27 REILLY JJG, 2001, AGR POTENTIAL CONSEQ REINSBOROUGH MJ, 2003, CAN J ECON, V36, P21 ROSENZWEIG C, 2000, CLIMATE CHANGE US AG SHABBAR A, 2004, LONG RANG CLIM IMP F SMIT B, 1988, J ENVIRON QUAL, V17, P519 SMIT B, 1991, CHANGING CLIMATE REL, P33 SMIT B, 1994, CAN J REGIONAL SCI, V16, P499 SMIT B, 2000, CLIMATE CHANGE COMMU SMIT B, 2002, MITIGATION ADAPTATIO, V7, P85 SMITH B, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P223 WALL E, 2004, CANADIAN AGR FOOD SE WANDEL J, 2000, AGR ENV SUSTAINABILI, P30 WEBER M, 2003, CANADIAN PUBLIC JUN, P163 WILSON A, 1995, AGR SUSTAINABLE DEV, P108 NR 32 TC 1 J9 J SUSTAINABLE AGR BP 113 EP 123 PY 2005 VL 27 IS 1 GA 997XM UT ISI:000234282200006 ER PT J AU Scott, D Jones, B Konopek, J TI Implications of climate and environmental change for nature-based tourism in the Canadian Rocky Mountains: A case study of Waterton Lakes National Park SO TOURISM MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article C1 Univ Waterloo, Fac Environm Studies, Canada Res Chair Global Change & Tourism, Waterloo, ON N2L 3G1, Canada. RP Scott, D, Univ Waterloo, Fac Environm Studies, Canada Res Chair Global Change & Tourism, 200 Univ Ave W, Waterloo, ON N2L 3G1, Canada. AB In western North America, Rocky Mountain national parks represent a major resource for nature-based tourism. This paper examines how climate change may influence park tourism in the Rocky Mountain region by focusing on both the direct and indirect impacts of climate change for visitation to Waterton Lakes National Park (WLNP) (Alberta, Canada). A statistical model of monthly visitation and climate was developed to examine the direct impact of climate change on visitation. The model projected that annual visitation would increase between 6% and 10% in the 2020s and between 10% and 36% in the 2050s. To explore how climate-induced environmental change could also indirectly affect visitation, a visitor survey was used (N = 425). The environmental change scenarios for the 2020s and 2050s were found to have minimal influence on visitation, however the environmental change scenario for the 2080s (under the warmest climate change conditions) was found to have a negative effect on visitation, as 19% of respondents indicated they would not visit the park and 37% stated they would visit the park less often. The contrasting result of the two analyses for the longer-term impact of climate change was a key finding. The management implications of these findings and methodological challenges associate with climate change impact assessment for tourism are also discussed. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *ALB EC DEV, 2000, EC IMP VIS ALB ROCK MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 *NAT PARKS SERV, 2005, VIS STAT *PARKS CAN, 2003, KOOT NAT PARK CAN FI *PARKS CAN, 2004, NAT PARK VIS ATT MON *PARKS CAN, 2005, WAT LAK NAT PARK CAN BARTLEIN PJ, 1997, CONSERV BIOL, V11, P782 BRUGMAN M, 1997, CANADA COUNTRY STUDY EAGLES PFJ, 2000, G WRIGHT FORUM, V17, P62 ELSASSER H, 2002, CLIMATE RES, V20, P253 FLANNIGAN M, 2001, CAN J FOREST RES, V31, P854 FRANKE M, 2000, YELLOWSTONE GLOW LES GOURLEY B, 1997, YELLOWSTONE NET NEWS, V1 HALL MHP, 2003, BIOSCIENCE, V53, P131 HANNAH L, 2002, CONSERV BIOL, V16, P264 HARDING L, 1997, RESPONDING CLIMATE C JONES B, 2006, IN PRESS J PARK RECR, V24 KELEHER CJ, 1996, T AM FISH SOC, V125, P1 LI C, 2000, CAN J FOREST RES, V30, P1905 MAGNUSON J, 1998, REGIONAL CLIMATE CHA MANN J, 2003, DAILY INTERLAKE NEWS MCCARTY JP, 2001, CONSERV BIOL, V15, P320 MCDONALD K, 1996, CONSERV BIOL, V6, P409 NEWHOUSE E, 2003, GREAT FALLS TRIBUNE RHEMTULLA JM, 2002, CAN J FOREST RES, V32, P2010 RICHARDSON RB, 2004, ECOL ECON, V50, P83 SCOTT D, 2000, CLIMATE CHANGE CANAD SCOTT D, 2002, GLOBAL ECOL BIOGEOGR, V11, P475 SCOTT D, 2003, P 1 INT C CLIM CHANG SCOTT D, 2005, FOREST CHRON, V81, P696 SCOTT D, 2005, TOURISM GLOBAL ENV C, P54 STOCKS BJ, 1998, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V38, P1 WALL G, 1992, TOURISM ALTERNATIVES WEBER MG, 1997, ENV REV, V5, P145 WINKS Q, 2003, JASPER BOOSTER NR 35 TC 0 J9 TOURISM MANAGE BP 570 EP 579 PY 2007 PD APR VL 28 IS 2 GA 139AX UT ISI:000244405500019 ER PT J AU Clarke, AL TI Assessing the carrying capacity of the Florida Keys SO POPULATION AND ENVIRONMENT LA English DT Article C1 Florida Int Univ, Miami, FL 33199 USA. RP Clarke, AL, Florida Int Univ, 11200 SW 8th St, Miami, FL 33199 USA. AB In 1996, the State of Florida mandated a study of the Florida Keys, the most populated portion of Monroe County, explicitly calling for a carrying capacity analysis to function as a basis for determining building permit allocation in the future. The Florida Keys Carrying Capacity Study, conducted by the State of Florida and the US Army Corps of Engineers, has encountered challenges in trying to convert the vague carrying capacity concept into a functional, quantitative method. Difficulties in responding to external peer review advice suggests that institutional constraints are hindering re-direction of the study. 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Getting the talks rapidly back on track failed and they will now resume in Bonn in July 2001. In the meantime, however, the political landscape has changed: there is a new US administration, and new scientific conclusions from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change have been released. The introduction and overview to this issue of International Affairs introduces five articles, all of which agree that the 1997 Kyoto Protocol on climate change can be saved. The rescue can be made either through fundamental changes to the Protocol itself or by learning the lessons of the failed round of negotiations in The Hague. On the basis of an assessment of the five articles, the author proposes his own solution-to un-bundle the issues that had accumulated in the three years since Kyoto. The author believes that some of the key developing-country Articles, dealing with issues such as adaptation, capacity building, and financial and technology transfer, can he dealt with outside the pressure of the targets and timetables. Decisions on Kyoto's emission targets, mechanisms and some aspects of 'sinks' would be made easier without the 'inter-connectedness' with the 'developing-country: issues'. It might even be possible, he suggests, to negotiate some deals on targets within smaller groups of countries such as the EU, or those countries that have targets, the Annex B countries. CR 2001, BBC NEWS ONLINE 0305 *MUN RE, 2001, GLOB ENV CHANG REP, V13 BLAIR T, 2001, WWF RIIA C 5 MARCH R BRACK D, 1996, 32 RIIA GRUBB M, 1999, KYOTO PROTCOL GUIDE GUPTA J, 2000, CLIMATE CHANGE EUROP HOUGHTON JT, 1996, CLIMAGE CHANGE 1995, P4 VROLIJK C, 2000, QUANTIFYING KYOTO WI NR 8 TC 0 J9 INT AFF BP 251 EP + PY 2001 PD APR VL 77 IS 2 GA 425LT UT ISI:000168292600001 ER PT J AU Scheinsohn, V TI Hunter-gatherer archaeology in South America SO ANNUAL REVIEW OF ANTHROPOLOGY LA English DT Article C1 Consejo Nacl Invest Cient & Tecn, INAPL, RA-1426 Buenos Aires, DF, Argentina. RP Scheinsohn, V, Consejo Nacl Invest Cient & Tecn, INAPL, 3 Febrero 1370, RA-1426 Buenos Aires, DF, Argentina. AB A general overview of hunter-gatherer archaeology in South America is given by recognizing the main problems in a South American context. Environmental framework and Paleoecological changes are summarized. Pleistocene and Holocene archaeology is reviewed in terms of these particularities. With respect to the Pleistocene, I review Pre-Clovis human presence in South America, technological differences between North and South America, variability in South American subsistence strategy, colonization and demographic models, and migratory routes. The Holocene archaeology is divided into Early and Late. For the former, I consider establishment of adaptive strategies (as marine adaptations), new artifact designs, and mortuary behaviors. For the latter, I consider exchange networks, emergence of complex hunter gatherers, mortuary behavior, origins of food production, and the contact with European populations. 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A critical review of the application of institutional theories to the study of environmental change SO ECOLOGY AND SOCIETY LA English DT Article C1 Univ E Anglia, Sch Environm Sci, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. RP Hotimsky, S, Univ E Anglia, Sch Environm Sci, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. AB The impact of new institutionalism on the study of human environment interactions has been meaningful. Institutional perspectives have further shaped and modified the field problems of common pool resources, environmental hazards, and risk and environmental management. Given the relative potential of institutional theories to increase the comprehension of the various dimensions of human environmental interactions, it has become increasingly important to attempt to consolidate different interpretations of what institutions are, and how they mediate and constrain possibilities for more successful environmental outcomes. This article focuses primarily on contending ontological perspectives on institutions and institutional change. It argues that what should guide the application of institutional theories in practical research regarding environmental change is the ontological dimension, and that the focus of research should be on uncovering the underlying dynamics of institutional change. In doing so, it calls for a methodological pluralism in the investigation of the role institutions play in driving/managing for environmental change. 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Ctr Marine & Atmoshper Sci, Hamburg, Germany. Vrije Univ Amsterdam, Inst Environm Studies, Amsterdam, Netherlands. Carnegie Mellon Univ, Pittsburgh, PA 15213 USA. Stockholm Environm Inst, Stockholm, Sweden. Stockholm Environm Inst, Oxford, England. Int Inst Appl Syst Anal, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria. Inst Symlog, Paris, France. Univ Southampton, Sch Civil & Environm Engn, Southampton SO9 5NH, Hants, England. Middlesex Univ, Flood Hazard Res Ctr, London N17 8HR, England. Univ Aegean, Dept Geogr, Lesvos, Greece. Izmir Univ Econ, Dept Econ, Balcova, Turkey. RP Tol, RSJ, Univ Hamburg, ZMK, FNU, Res Unit Sustainabil & Global Change, Bundesstr 55, D-20146 Hamburg, Germany. AB There is an unknown but probably small probability that the West-Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) will collapse because of anthropogenic climate change. A WAIS collapse could cause a 5-6 metre global sea level rise within centuries. In three case studies, we investigate the response of society to the most extreme yet not implausible scenario, a five-metre sea level rise within a century, starting in 2030. The case studies combine a series of interviews with experts and stakeholders with a gaming workshop. In the Rhone delta, the most likely option would be retreat, with economic losses, perhaps social losses, and maybe ecological gains. In the Thames estuary, the probable outcome is less clear, but would probably be a mix of protection, accommodation and retreat, with parts of the city centre turned into a Venice of London. A massive downstream barrier is an alternative response. In the Rhine delta (the Netherlands), the initial response would be protection, followed by retreat from the economically less important parts of the country and, probably, from Amsterdam Rotterdam metropolitan region as well. These impacts are large compared to other climate change impacts, but probably small compared to the impacts of the same scenario in other parts of the world. This suggests that the possibility of a anthropogenic-climate-change-induced WAIS collapse would strengthen the case for greenhouse gas emission reduction. CR *CIESIN COL U CIAT, 2004, GRIDD POP WORLD GPW *RIJKSW, 1986, UNPUB ZEESPIEGELRIJZ ALLEY RB, 1991, SCIENCE, V254, P959 ALLEY RB, 2003, SCIENCE, V299, P2005 ARNELL NW, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 BENTLEY CR, 1997, SCIENCE, V275, P1077 BERZ J, 2001, OUR PLANET, V1, P19 CUBASCH U, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 DAWSON RJ, 2006, IN PRESS INT J WATER GREENBLAT C, 1981, PRINCIPLES PRACTICES GREGORY JM, 2004, NATURE, V428, P616 GUILLERMINET ML, 2005, FNU79 HAMB U CTR MAR HAINES A, 1991, J PUBLIC HEALTH MED, V13, P69 KASPERSON RE, 2005, FNU73 HAMB U CTR MAR KELLER K, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V47, P17 KELLER K, 2004, J ENVIRON ECON MANAG, V48, P723 KERR RA, 1998, SCIENCE, V281, P499 KRUEGER RA, 1988, FOCUS GROUPS PRACTIC LAVERY S, 2005, PHILOS T ROY SOC A, V363, P1455 LINK PM, 2004, PORTUGUESE EC J, V3, P99 LONSDALE K, 2005, FNU77 HAMB U CTR MAR LOWE JA, 2006, AVOIDING DANGEROUS C, P29 LYTHE MB, 2001, J GEOPHYS RES-SOL EA, V106, P11335 MACAYEAL DR, 1992, NATURE, V359, P29 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 MERCER JH, 1978, NATURE, V271, P321 NICHOLLS RJ, 2005, FNU78 HAMB U CTR MAR OLSTHOORN AA, 2005, FNU75 HAMB U CTR MAR OPPENHEIMER M, 1998, NATURE, V393, P325 OPPENHEIMER M, 2004, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V64, P1 PARRY ML, 1990, CLIMAGE CHANGE WORLD POUMADERE M, 2005, FNU76 HAMB U CTR MAR RAHMSTORF S, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V46, P247 SCHILLER A, 1997, CLIM DYNAM, V13, P325 SCHNEIDER SH, 1980, ANNU REV ENERG ENV, V5, P107 SMALL C, 2003, J COASTAL RES, V19, P584 SMITH JB, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, P913 THOMAS RH, 1979, NATURE, V277, P355 TOL RSJ, 2004, FNU48 HAMB U CTR MAR TOTH FL, 1988, SIMULATION GAMES, V19, P235 TOTH FL, 1988, SIMULATION GAMES, V19, P256 TOTH FL, 2005, FNU74 HAMB U CTR MAR VAUGHAN DG, 2002, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V52, P65 VELLINGA M, 2002, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V54, P251 WOODROFFE CD, 2005, GLOBAL CHANGE IMPLIC NR 45 TC 0 J9 J RISK RES BP 467 EP 482 PY 2006 PD JUL VL 9 IS 5 GA 074MI UT ISI:000239816100003 ER PT J AU Lal, M Harasawa, H Takahashi, K TI Future climate change and its impacts over small island states SO CLIMATE RESEARCH LA English DT Article C1 Indian Inst Technol, Ctr Atmospher Sci, New Delhi 110016, India. Natl Inst Environm Studies, Ibaraki, Japan. RP Lal, M, Indian Inst Technol, Ctr Atmospher Sci, New Delhi 110016, India. AB This paper examines the response of the climate of Small Island States (SIS) to transient increases in anthropogenic radiative forcing due to increases in atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases and/or sulfate aerosols using the data generated in a set of numerical experiments performed with a range of coupled atmosphere-ocean global climate models. Five of the 7 models considered in our validation exercise are found to have fair skill as regards their ability to simulate the broad features of present-day observed surface climatological features over the SIS in the Indian Ocean, the Mediterranean Sea, the Atlantic Ocean and the Pacific Ocean. The transient experiments with these models, which include the time-varying future anthropogenic radiative forcings, have been used here to develop regional projections of future climate change. An area-averaged annual mean warming of ca 2degreesC or higher for the 2050s and ca 3degreesC or higher for the 2080s are projected for the SIS as a consequence of increases in atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases. In general, seasonal variations of the projected surface warming over the SIS are minimal. No significant change in diurnal temperature range is likely with an increase in surface temperatures. An increase in mean temperature would be accompanied by an increase in the frequency of extremely high temperatures. The aerosol forcing will only marginally reduce the surface warming. The models simulate only a marginal change (<10%) in annual mean rainfall over most of the SIS, During the northern hemisphere summer, however, rainfall is projected to decline (except over Pacific Ocean islands). An increase in daily rainfall intensity leading to more heavy rainfall events is also projected. The projected changes in temperature and rainfall could disrupt the terrestrial and marine ecosystems in most SIS. An integrated study of vulnerability assessment for SIS based on a better understanding of the precise magnitude of increase in surface air temperature and associated sea level rise is warranted for developing appropriate adaptation strategies. CR ALCAMO J, 1995, CLIMATE CHANGE 1994, P247 BARNETT TP, 1999, J CLIMATE, V12, P511 BENIOFF R, 1996, VULNERABILITY ADAPT BIJLSMA L, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, P288 BIRD ECF, 1993, SUBMERGING COASTS EF BOUMA MJ, 1994, LANCET, V343, P302 CHU PS, 1999, B AM METEOROL SOC, V80, P1875 COLLINS M, 2000, J CLIMATE, V13, P1299 COLWELL RR, 1996, SCIENCE, V274, P2025 DILLEY M, 1995, DISASTERS, V19, P181 ECHEVERRIA P, 1995, AM J TROP MED HYG, V52, P124 EPSTEIN PR, 1992, LANCET, V339, P1167 GAMO T, 1999, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V26, P3137 GATES WL, 1999, B AM METEOROL SOC, V80, P29 GIORGI F, 1991, REV GEOPHYS, V29, P191 HALES S, 1996, LANCET, V348, P1664 HENNESSY KJ, 1997, CLIM DYNAM, V13, P667 HESS A, 1990, SUSTAINABLE DEV ENV, P3 HOLLAND GJ, 1997, J ATMOS SCI, V54, P2519 HULME M, 1998, CLIMATE RES, V10, P1 JONES RN, 1999, ANAL EFFECTS KYOTO P KESTIN TS, 1998, J CLIMATE, V11, P2258 KITTEL TGF, 1998, CLIM DYNAM, V14, P1 KNUTSON TR, 1998, SCIENCE, V279, P1018 KRISHNAMURTI TN, 1998, TELLUS A, V50, P186 LEATHERMAN SP, 1997, J COASTAL RES, V24, P1 MCMICHAEL AJ, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE HUMAN MEEHL GA, 1993, J CLIMATE, V6, P42 MEEHL GA, 1996, NATURE, V382, P56 MIDDLETON N, 1999, GLOBAL CASINO INTRO MITCHELL JFB, 1995, NATURE, V376, P501 MITCHELL JFB, 1997, J CLIMATE, V10, P245 MITCHELL JFB, 1999, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V41, P547 NEW M, 1999, J CLIMATE, V12, P829 NICHOLLS RJ, 1998, CLIMATE RES, V11, P5 NURSE L, 1998, REGIONAL IMPACTS CLI, P331 PERNETTA JC, 1992, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V2, P19 RAPER SCB, 1996, SEA LEVEL RISE COAST REITER P, 1998, LANCET, V351, P839 ROYER JF, 1998, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V38, P307 SCHUBERT M, 1998, CLIM DYNAM, V14, P827 SHACKLEY S, 1998, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V38, P159 SHINE KP, 1999, GLOBAL PLANET CHANGE, V20, P205 SINGH B, 1997, INT J CLIMATOL, V17, P1093 TRENBERTH KE, 1997, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V24, P3057 TRENBERTH KE, 1998, J MAR ED, V15, P12 WALSH K, 1998, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V39, P199 WARRICK RA, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, P359 WATSON RT, 1998, REGIONAL IMPACTS CLI, V1, P1 NR 49 TC 1 J9 CLIMATE RES BP 179 EP 192 PY 2002 PD JAN 16 VL 19 IS 3 GA 530BJ UT ISI:000174335500001 ER PT J AU Ambrosi, P Hourcade, JC Hallegatte, S Lecocq, F Dumas, P Duong, MH TI Optimal control models and elicitation of attitudes towards climate damages SO ENVIRONMENTAL MODELING & ASSESSMENT LA English DT Article C1 CIRED, Jardin Trop, F-94736 Nogent Sur Marne, France. World Bank, Dev Econ Res Grp, Washington, DC 20433 USA. RP Ambrosi, P, CIRED, Jardin Trop, 45bis Ave Belle Gabrielle, F-94736 Nogent Sur Marne, France. AB This paper examines the consequences of various attitudes towards climate damages through a family of stochastic optimal control models (RESPONSE): cost-efficiency for a given temperature ceiling; cost-benefit analysis with a "pure preference for current climate regime" and full cost-benefit analysis. The choice of a given proxy of climate change risks is actually more than a technical option. It is essentially motivated by the degree of distrust regarding the legitimacy of an assessment of climate damages and the possibility of providing in due time reliable and non controversial estimates. Our results demonstrate that (a) for early decades abatement, the difference between various decision-making frameworks appears to matter less than the difference between stochastic and non stochastic approach given the cascade of uncertainty from emissions to damages; (b) in a stochastic approach, the possibility of non-catastrophic singularities in the damage function is sufficient to significantly increase earlier optimal abatements; (c) a window of opportunity for action exists up to 2040: abatements further delayed may induce significant regret in case of bad news about climate response or singularities in damages. CR *UN, 1992, UN FRAM CONV CLIM CH ALLEY R, 2002, ABRUPT CLIMATE CHANG AMBROSI P, 2002, MODELISATION INTEGRE BURCE JP, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995 CHICHILNISKY G, 1996, SOC CHOICE WELFARE, V13, P231 CLINE WR, 1996, FINANC DEV, V30, P4 COSTANZA R, 1997, NATURE, V387, P253 DIXIT AK, 1994, TIMING ENV POLICY DUMAS P, 2001, ENERGY MODELING FORU GJERDE J, 1999, RESOUR ENERGY ECON, V21, P289 HADUONG M, 1997, NATURE, V390, P270 HAMMITT JK, 1999, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V41, P447 HOUGHTON JT, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 HOURCADE JC, 1995, ENERG POLICY, V23, P433 KOOPMANS TC, 1960, ECONOMETRICA, V28, P287 LAVE LB, 1992, ENERGY J, V12, P9 LECOCQ F, 2003, ENJEUX EC EFFET SERR, P177 MANNE AS, 1992, BUYING GREENHOUSE IN MANNE AS, 1995, EMF14 STANF U MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 METZ B, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 NAKICENOVIC N, 2000, SPECIAL REPORT EMISS NARAIN U, 2002, GLOBAL WARMING ENDOG NORDHAUS W, 1994, MANAGING GLOBAL COMM NORDHAUS W, 1999, WARMING WORLD EC MOD PARRY ML, 2001, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V11, P181 PECK S, 1993, ASSESSING SURPRISES SCHNEIDER SH, 1981, J GEOPHYS RES, V86, P3135 SCIMENI G, 1987, PREVENTIVE ENV POLIC SIMONETT O, 1989, POTENTIAL IMPACTS GL TOMAN MA, 1998, ECOL ECON, V25, P57 WEISS H, 2001, SCIENCE, V291, P609 WIGLEY TML, 1996, NATURE, V379, P240 NR 33 TC 0 J9 ENVIRON MODEL ASSESS BP 133 EP 147 PY 2003 PD SEP VL 8 IS 3 GA 717QQ UT ISI:000185101200003 ER PT J AU JOEKES, S HEYZER, N ONIANGO, R SALLES, V TI GENDER, ENVIRONMENT AND POPULATION SO DEVELOPMENT AND CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 ASIAN & PACIFIC DEV CTR,GENDER & DEV PROGRAMME,POB 12224,KUALA LUMPUR 50770,MALAYSIA. RP JOEKES, S, UNIV SUSSEX,INST DEV STUDIES,BRIGHTON BN1 9RE,ENGLAND. AB Based on field research from three regions with distinct variations in environment, population density, livelihood bases and levels of resource dependency, this study investigates the gender aspects of environmental change. It seeks to illustrate the relevance of gender factors for the patterns of adaptation to change, for the welfare impact of changes on the population, and for the ramifications for resource management and livelihood generation at the community level. It employs a gender analysis to examine the impact of such changes on population variables, particularly on health and nutrition, and to explore the more general question of whether women's socio-economic status is being threatened by the pressures of environmental change. CR 1993, WORLD DEV REPORT 199 AGARWAL B, 1992, APR UNRISD FIS C SOC BOSERUP E, 1965, CONDITIONS AGR GROWT CALDWELL JC, 1987, POPUL DEV REV, V13, P409 DANKELMAN I, 1989, WOMEN ENV 3D WORLD A HEYZER N, 1992, APR UNRISD FIS C SOC HEYZER N, 1993, GENDER POPULATION EN JACKSON C, 1992, GAID6 U E ANGL SCH D JOEKES S, 1992, 1992 UNRISD WOM ENV KUMAR S, 1988, IFPRI69 INT FOOD POL LEACH M, 1991, MAY DSA WOM DEV STUD LEACH M, 1991, POVERTY ENV DEV COUN LOCKWOOD M, 1991, LIFESTYLE OVERLOAD P, P23 MORENO CG, 1992, DEC WORLD BANK CONS ONIANGO R, 1992, APR UNRISD FIS C SOC ONIANGO R, 1993, UNRISD WOMEN ENV POP ROCHELEAU D, 1992, GENDER ENV DEV SOME SALLES V, 1992, ERASE UNA VEZ GRAN L SALLES V, 1992, UNPUB LIVING TOGETHE SENGUPTA N, 1985, ECON POLIT WEEKLY, V20, P1919 SHIVA V, 1989, STAYING ALIVE WOMEN TIFFEN M, 1993, J INT DEV, V5, P207 WARREN KJ, 1987, ENV ETHICS, V9 NR 23 TC 7 J9 DEVELOP CHANGE BP 137 EP 165 PY 1994 PD JAN VL 25 IS 1 GA NQ717 UT ISI:A1994NQ71700006 ER PT J AU Sathaye, JA Dixon, RK Rosenzweig, C TI Climate change country studies SO APPLIED ENERGY LA English DT Article C1 US COUNTRY STUDIES PROGRAM,WASHINGTON,DC. COLUMBIA UNIV,NASA,GODDARD INST SPACE STUDIES,NEW YORK,NY. RP Sathaye, JA, LAWRENCE BERKELEY LAB,BERKELEY,CA 94720. AB Over the past three years, country studies have improved country-specific, and hence global, estimates of: (i) greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and sequestration, and (ii) costs and benefits of mitigation options, and (iii) the vulnerability of natural habitats and human systems. The technical and financial support provided by the US and other country-study programs has enhanced the contribution of experts from developing and transition countries to their global scientific assessment. This paper presents a brief overview of work conducted in the context of the US Country Studies Program in the development of national GHG inventories, assessment of GHG mitigation options, and assessment of vulnerability to climate change and options for adaptation. Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. CR *ENERGOPROEKT, 1995, BULG COUNTR STUD ADD *IPCC WG I TECHN S, 1995, IPCC OECD GREENH GAS, V1 *IPCC, 1995, IPCC 1995 WORK GROUP *MIN ENV CZECH REP, 1994, CZECH REP 1 COMM NAT *UN, 1992, FRAM CONV CLIM CHANG *WORLD RES I, 1994, WORLD RES 1994 95 BRAATZ B, 1996, IN PRESS EMISSION IN BROWN S, 1995, COMMUNICATION BROWN S, 1996, COMMONWEALTH FORESTR, V75, P80 CARTER TR, 1994, TECHNICAL GUIDELINES DIXON RK, 1994, SCIENCE, V263, P185 DIXON RK, 1996, AMBIO, V25, P1 DIXON RK, 1996, VULNERABILITY ADAPTA DVROAK V, 1996, IN PRESS CLIMATIC CH ELSHAER MH, 1996, IN PRESS GLOBAL MITI HALSNAES K, 1994, ENERG POLICY, V22, P925 HOUGHTON JT, 1994, CLIMATE CHANGE 1994 JALLOW BP, 1996, IN PRESS VULNERABILI LAROVERE EL, 1994, ENERG POLICY, V22, P914 LENHART SS, 1996, VULNERABILITY ADAPTA MARLAND G, 1995, IDOJARUS, V99, P139 MASERA O, 1996, INTERCIENCIA, V20, P388 MONGIA N, 1994, ENERG POLICY, V22, P894 OH JG, 1996, AMBIO, V25, P4 OH JG, 1996, IN PRESS AMBIO, V25, P4 PATZ JA, 1996, CLIMATE RES, V6, P113 SATHAYE J, 1995, GREENHOUSE GAS MITIG SIDDIQI TA, 1995, ANNU REV ENERG ENV, V20, P213 SMITH JB, 1996, ADAPTING CLIMATE CHA STRZEPEK KM, 1996, CLIMATE RES, V6, P89 TOURE S, 1996, ENV PROFESSIONAL WEERAKKODY U, 1996, IN PRESS CLIMATE RES WU ZX, 1994, ENERG POLICY, V22, P907 NR 33 TC 3 J9 APPL ENERG BP 225 EP 235 PY 1997 PD MAR-APR VL 56 IS 3-4 GA XR663 UT ISI:A1997XR66300005 ER PT J AU Endfield, GH Tejedo, IF O'Hara, SL TI Drought and disputes, deluge and dearth: climatic variability and human response in colonial Oaxaca, Mexico SO JOURNAL OF HISTORICAL GEOGRAPHY LA English DT Review C1 Univ Nottingham, Sch Geog, Nottingham NG7 2RD, England. RP Endfield, GH, Univ Nottingham, Sch Geog, Univ Pk, Nottingham NG7 2RD, England. AB 'Extreme' weather events such as droughts, floods, hurricanes, frosts and unusually high or low temperatures can have immense and immediate social, economic and environmental impacts. Investigations of historical extreme weather events, and the nature of the social responses to them, afford insight into the way in which societies have been affected by and have adapted to these events in the past. Historical documents represent invaluable sources to investigate these themes. In this paper we use a range of archival sources to investigate how society in colonial Oaxaca, southern Mexico, was affected by and responded to different types of extreme weather event. Our findings indicate that while drought contributed to antagonism over water supplies between users, it was also used opportunistically to support or challenge cases of water deprivation in legal proceedings. Flooding appears to have been a relatively frequent phenomenon in colonial Oaxaca, but a number of particularly devastating flood events are recorded in the archives. The impact of these events appears to have been determined as much by the timing of the events and level of socio-economic preparedness, as by scale of the flood itself. We then analyse harvest losses due to a range of different climatic phenomena. We highlight how different cross-sections of the community and the local administration responded to these events and suggest that some of the documented harvest losses might have actually been encouraged by high risk agricultural practices. (C) 2004 Published by Elsevier Ltd. 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RP DOW, KM, CLARK UNIV,GRAD SCH GEOG,950 MAIN ST,WORCESTER,MA 01610. AB We share a future of environmental changes that entails different consequences for people and regions. Vulnerability, a central concept in understanding these distributions is receiving increasing attention, although little consensus exists about its meaning and implications. An overview of the definitions, factors and explanations of vulnerability raises issues of values and policy converging around vulnerability. Four issues are discussed in greater detail: (1) the relationship between dimensions of vulnerability (exposure, resistance, the ability to resist harm, and resilience, the capacity to recover from impacts); (2) the relationship between biophysical and social distributions of vulnerability; (3) the emergence of vulnerability as a characteristic of relationships across social scales; and (4) the role of temporal sequences or cycles in creating 'windows of vulnerability.' 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Univ Bonn, Dept Geog, D-53113 Bonn, Germany. Univ Twente, Fac Engn Technol, Discipline Grp Water Engn & Management, NL-7500 AE Enschede, Netherlands. Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res, D-14412 Potsdam, Germany. Geoforschungszentrum Potsdam, Sect Engn Hydrol, D-14473 Potsdam, Germany. RP Bronstert, A, Univ Potsdam, POB 601553, D-14415 Potsdam, Germany. AB Many semi-arid regions are characterised by water scarcity and vulnerability of natural resources, pronounced climatic variability and social stress. Integrated studies including climatotogy, hydrology, and socio-econornic studies are required both for analysing the dynamic natural conditions and to assess possible strategies to make semi-arid regions Less vulnerable to the present and changing climate. The model introduced here dynamically describes the retationships between climate forcing, water availability, agriculture and selected societal processes. The model has been tailored to simulate the rather complex situation in the semi-and north-eastern Brazil in a quantitative manner including the sensitivity to external forcing, such as climate change. The selected results presented show the general functioning of the integrated model, with a primary focus on climate change impacts. It becomes evident that due to Large differences in regional climate scenarios, it is still impossible to give quantitative values for the most probable development, e.g., to assign probabilities to the simulated results. However, it becomes clear that water is a very crucial factor, and that an efficient and ecologically sound water management is a key question for the further development of that semi-arid region. The simulation results show that, independent of the differences in climate change scenarios, rain-fed farming is more vulnerable to drought impacts compared to irrigated farming. However, the capacity of irrigation and other water infrastructure systems to enhance resilience in respect to climatic fluctuations is significantly constrained given a significant negative precipitation trend. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 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EW Ctr, Honolulu, HI USA. WHO, Dept Publ Hlth & Environm, CH-1211 Geneva, Switzerland. RP Ebi, KL, LLC, EES, 5249 Tancreti Lane, Alexandria, VA 22304 USA. AB Small island states are likely the countries most vulnerable to climate variability and long-term climate change. Climate models suggest that small island states will experience warmer temperatures and changes in rainfall, sod moisture budgets, prevailing winds (speed and direction), and patterns of wave action. El Nino events likely will strengthen short-term and interannual climate variations. In addition, global mean sea level is projected to increase by 0.09-0.88 m by 2100, with variable effects on regional and local sea level. To better understand the potential human health consequences of these projected changes, a series of workshops and a conference organized by the World Health Organization, in partnership with the World Meteorological Organization and the United Nations Environment Programme, addressed the following issues: the current distribution and burden of climate-sensitive diseases in small island states, the potential future health impacts of climate variability and change, the interventions currently used to reduce the burden of climate-sensitive diseases, additional interventions that are needed to adapt to current and future health impacts, and the health implications of climate variability and change in other sectors. Information on these issues is synthesized and key recommendations are identified for improving the capacity of the health sector to anticipate and prepare for climate variability and change in small island states. 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CR BOWERS N, 1968, THESIS COLUMBIA U BROOFIELD HC, 1968, ETHNOLOGY, V7, P43 BROOKFIELD HC, 1971, MELANESIA GEOGRAPHIC CLARKE WC, 1966, ETHNOLOGY, V5, P347 DELEPERVANCHE M, 1973, ANTHR PAPUA NEW GUIN EDEN MJ, 1974, I BRIT GEOGRAPHERS T, V63, P97 FORGE A, 1970, WITCHCRAFT CONFESSIO FORGE A, 1972, MAN SETTLEMENT URBAN FORGE A, 1972, MAN, V7, P527 GLASSE RM, 1968, HULI PAPUA GROVES M, 1973, ANTHR PAPUA NEW GUIN HAANTJENS HA, 1970, CSIRO LAND RES SERIE, V27 HANNTJENS HA, 1965, PACIFIC VIEWPOINT, V6, P215 HARDING TG, 1967, VOYAGERS VITIAZ STRA HART D, 1970, ATLAS PAPUA NEW GUIN HUGHES IM, 1971, THESIS AUSTR NATIONA HUGHES IM, 1977, TERRA AUSTRALIS, V3 LAWRENCE P, 1973, ANTHR PAPUA NEW GUIN LEA DAM, 1964, THESIS AUSTR NATIONA LOFFLER E, 1977, GEOMORPHOLOGY PAPUA MALINOWSKI B, 1922, ARGONAUTS W PACIFIC MORREN GEB, 1977, SUBSISTENCE SURVIVAL PAIJMANS K, 1975, CSIRO LAND RES SERIE, V35 PAIJMANS K, 1976, NEW GUINEA VEGETATIO PAIN CF, 1979, SEARCH, V10, P228 RAPPAPORT RA, 1967, PIGS ANCESTORS RITUA, V1, P1 ROBBINS RG, 1960, P S IMPACT MAN HUMID, P313 SALISBURY RF, 1962, STONE STEEL EC CONSE SKELDON R, 1979, DEMOGRAPHY PAPUA NEW SORRENSON ER, 1976, EDGE FOREST LAND CHI TIESLER F, 1969, ABHANDLUNGEN BERICHT, V30, P31 WADDELL E, 1972, MOUND BUILDERS AGR P WATSON JB, 1965, J POLYNESIAN SOC, V74, P438 NR 33 TC 4 J9 J HUM EVOL BP 3 EP 23 PY 1983 VL 12 IS 1 GA QK932 UT ISI:A1983QK93200001 ER PT J AU Cliggett, L Colson, E Hay, R Scudder, T Unruh, J TI Chronic uncertainty and momentary opportunity: A half century of adaptation among Zambia's Gwembe Tonga SO HUMAN ECOLOGY LA English DT Article C1 Univ Kentucky, Dept Anthropol, Lexington, KY 40506 USA. Univ Calif Berkeley, Dept Anthropol, Berkeley, CA 94720 USA. Calif State Univ Dominguez Hills, Dept Earth Sci, Carson, CA 90747 USA. CALTECH, Div Humanities & Social Sci, Pasadena, CA 91125 USA. McGill Univ, Dept Geog, Montreal, PQ, Canada. RP Cliggett, L, Univ Kentucky, Dept Anthropol, 211 Lafferty Hall, Lexington, KY 40506 USA. AB In Zambia's Southern Province, where a history of climatic and political fluctuation have played out in peoples livelihood choices and ecological impacts, the Gwembe Tonga people have learned to respond to uncertainty by expecting the worst. This outlook emerges from at least 50 years of experience. The building of the Kariba Dam on the Middle Zambezi River in the late 1950s resulted in the forced relocation of Gwembe people. Since resettlement in 1958, Gwembe people have lived under conditions of increasing uncertainty, both environmental and sociopolitical, that have enormous implications for environmental change. Understanding environmental change in this region demands an exploration of the social, political and economic context of Gwembe Tonga lives. In looking for broad patterns of adaptation and response, one point emerges clearly. For the Gwembe Tonga, the most recurrent pattern, and most reliable response to living in conditions of extreme uncertainty, is an increasingly opportunistic use of the environment and other resources. This article presents ethnographic data collected over more than 50 years (through the Gwembe Tonga Research Project) in Southern Zambia. 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RP Lindner, M, Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res, POB 60 12 03, D-14412 Potsdam, Germany. AB The projected global climate change will influence growth and productivity of natural and managed forests. Since the characteristics of the future regional climate are still uncertain and the response of our forests to changes in the atmospheric and climatic conditions may be both positive or negative, decision making in managed forests should consider the new risks and uncertainties arising from climatic change, especially if the rotation periods are long. An extended version of the forest gap model FORSKA was applied to simulate the forest development at 488 forest inventory plots in the federal state of Brandenburg, Germany, under two climate and three management scenarios. The transient growth dynamics from 1990 to 2100 were investigated at four sites in different parts of the state, representing the variability of environmental and forest conditions within Brandenburg. The alternative management strategies led to distinct differences in forest composition after 110 years of simulation. The projected climate change affected both forest productivity and species composition. The impacts of alternative management scenarios are discussed. It is concluded that the extended forest gap model can be a valuable tool to support decision making in forest management under global change. 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Union Concerned Sci, Global Environm Program, Berkeley, CA 94704 USA. RP Eakin, H, Univ Calif Santa Barbara, Dept Geog, Santa Barbara, CA 93106 USA. AB In this review, we highlight new insights into the conceptualization of the vulnerability of social-environmental systems and identify critical points of convergence of what otherwise might be characterized as disparate fields of research. We argue that a diversity of approaches to studying vulnerability is necessary in order to address the full complexity of the concept and that the approaches are in large part complementary. An emerging consensus on the issues of critical importance to vulnerability reduction-including concerns of equity and social justice-and growing synergy among conceptual frameworks promise even greater relevancy and utility for decision makers in the near future. We synthesize the current literature with an outline of core assessment components and key questions to guide the trajectory of future research. 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ENVIRON RESOUR BP 365 EP 394 PY 2006 VL 31 GA 109QZ UT ISI:000242324900013 ER PT J AU Stepp, JR Jones, EC Pavao-Zuckerman, M Casagrande, DG Zarger, RK TI Remarkable properties of human ecosystems SO CONSERVATION ECOLOGY LA English DT Article C1 Univ Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611 USA. Univ Georgia, Athens, GA 30602 USA. Arizona State Univ, Tempe, AZ 85287 USA. Florida Int Univ, Miami, FL 33199 USA. RP Stepp, JR, Univ Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611 USA. AB This paper explores some of the remarkable properties that set human ecosystems apart from nonhuman ecosystems. The identification of these properties provides a framework for bridging the theoretical and methodological divide between biological ecology and human ecology. The unique information-processing capability of humans in ecosystems is central to this framework. We discuss several manifestations of human cognitive and behavioral abilities, termed "remarkable properties" of human ecosystems. A cross-cultural and historical approach is taken in demonstrating some of these properties. Related to these properties are the ways in which complex functional and dysfunctional or maladaptive processes take place in human ecosystems. We assert that one of the greatest challenges for human ecology is to integrate belief systems as a major component of human ecosystems. CR ADAMS RN, 1973, ENERGY STRUCTURE ALLAND A, 1975, ANNU REV ANTHROPOL, V4, P59 ALLEN TFH, 2001, BIOSCIENCE, V51, P475 ANDERSON E, 1996, ECOLOGIES HEART EMOT ARTHUR B, 1990, SCI AM, V2, P92 BATESON MC, 1972, OU OWN METAPHOR PERS BENNETT JW, 1976, ECOLOGICAL TRANSITIO BIRX HJ, 1972, PT DECHARDINS PHILOS BOSERUP E, 1965, CONDITIONS AGR GROWT BOYD R, 1985, CULTURE EVOLUTIONARY BUTZER KW, ECOSYSTEM APPROACH A, V91, P90 CECHARDIN PT, 1966, MANS PLACE NATURE CHERRETT JM, 1988, B BRIT ECOLOGICAL SO, V19, P80 CRONON W, 1983, CHANGES LAND NATIVE DECHARDIN PT, 1959, PHENOMENON MAN DOW J, 1975, SOC SCI INFORM, V15, P953 FLANNERY KV, 1972, ANNU REV ECOL SYST, V3, P399 GRIMM NB, 2000, BIOSCIENCE, V50, P571 GUMPERZ JJ, 1991, CURR ANTHROPOL, V32, P613 HALLPIKE CR, 1988, PRINCIPLES SOCIAL EV HARRIS M, 1966, CURR ANTHROPOL, V12, P199 HARRIS M, 1979, CULTURAL MAT STRUGGL HOLLING CS, 1998, CONSERV ECOL, V2, P1 HUTCHINS E, 1995, COGNITION WILD JONES EC, 1999, J ECOLOGICAL ANTHR, V3, P24 JORDAN T, 1998, ONLINE J PEACE CONFL, V1, P3 KLESIUS M, 2000, NATL GEOGR, V197, P28 KUCHKA HE, 2001, J ECOLOGICAL ANTHR, V5, P1 MACKAY C, 1980, EXTRAORDINARY POPULA, P92 MARGALEF DR, 1958, GEN SYST, V3, P36 MARGALEF R, 1968, PERSPECTIVES ECOLOGI MARX K, 1867, CAPITAL CRITIQUE POL, V1 MORAN EF, 1982, HUMAN ADAPTABILITY I OCONNELL RL, 1988, ARMS MEN HIST WAR WE ODUM E, 1953, FUNDAMENTALS ECOLOGY ODUM E, 1959, FUNDAMENTALS ECOLOGY ODUM E, 1971, FUNDAMENTALS ECOLOGY ODUM E, 1997, ECOLOGY BRIDGE SCI S ODUM HT, 1983, SYSTEMS ECOLOGY PATTEN BC, 1978, OHIO J SCI, V78, P206 PATTEN BC, 1998, ECOTARGETS GOAL FUNC, P137 PAVAOZUCKERMAN MA, 2000, J ECOLOGICAL ANTHR, V4, P31 PICKETT STA, 2002, ECOSYSTEMS, V5, P1 PIMENTEL D, 1973, SCIENCE, V182, P443 PULESTON DE, 1979, MAYA ARCHAEOLOGY ETH, P63 RAPPAPORT RA, 1967, PIGS ANCESTORS RITUA, V1, P1 RAPPAPORT RA, 1977, EVOLUTION SOCIAL SYS, V1, P49 REDFORD KH, 1991, CULTURAL SURVIVAL Q, V15, P46 RUSSELL B, 1938, POWER NEW SOCIAL ANA SALTHE S, 1985, EVOLVING HIERARCHICA SALTHE S, 1993, DEV EVOLUTION COMPLE SHANNON CE, 1949, MATH THEORY COMMUNIC SMITH EA, 2000, ANNU REV ANTHROPOL, V29, P493 STEPP JR, 1999, J ECOLOGICAL ANTHR, V3, P39 TANSLEY AG, 1935, ECOLOGY, V7, P249 ULANOWICZ RE, 2001, COMPUT CHEM, V25, P393 VERNADSKY VI, 1945, AM SCI, V33, P1 VITOUSEK PM, 1997, SCIENCE, V277, P494 WILKINSON D, 1995, CIVILIZATIONS WORLD, P46 WIMSATT WC, 1986, INTEGRATING SCI DISC, P185 WYNDHAM FS, 2000, J ECOLOGICAL ANTHR, V4, P87 NR 61 TC 2 J9 CONSERV ECOL BP 1 PY 2003 PD DEC VL 7 IS 3 GA 855HE UT ISI:000223963100005 ER PT J AU Thomalla, F Downing, TE Spanger-Siegfried, E Han, GY Rockstrom, J TI Reducing hazard vulnerability: towards a common approach between disaster risk reduction and climate adaptation SO DISASTERS LA English DT Article C1 Stockholm Environm Inst, S-10314 Stockholm, Sweden. RP Thomalla, F, Stockholm Environm Inst, Lilla Nygatan 1,Box 2142, S-10314 Stockholm, Sweden. AB Over the past few decades, four distinct and largely independent research and policy communities-disaster risk reduction, climate change adaptation, environmental management and poverty reduction-have been actively engaged in reducing socio-economic vulnerability to natural hazards. However, despite the significant efforts of these communities, the vulnerability of many individuals and communities to natural hazards continues to increase considerably. In particular, it is hydro-meteorological hazards that affect an increasing number of people and cause increasingly large economic losses. Arising from the realisation that these four communities have been largely working in isolation and enjoyed only limited success in reducing vulnerability, there is an emerging perceived need to strengthen significantly collaboration and to facilitate learning and information exchange between them. This article examines key communalities and differences between the climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction communities, and proposes three exercises that would help to structure a multi-community dialogue and learning process. CR *IATF, 2004, DRAFT REP 19 SESS 7 *IFRC, 2002, WORLD DIS REP 2002 *IFRC, 2003, WORLD DIS REP 2003 *IFRC, 2004, WORLD DIS REP 2004 *IPCC, 2001, CLIM CHANG 2001 IPCC *ISDR, 2002, LIV RISK GLOB REV DI *TASK FORC CLIM CH, 2003, LIV CLIM CHANG *WORLD BANK, 2003, POV CLIM CHANG RED V BHARWANI S, 2005, PHILOS T ROY SOC B, P360 BOHLE HG, 1994, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V4, P37 KASPERSON JX, 2001, INT WORKSH VULN GLOB MECHLER R, 2002, IIASA MODEL EVALUATI PELLING M, 2003, NATURAL DISASTERS DE SPERLING F, 2005, WORLD C DIS RED KOB STEPHEN L, 2001, DISASTERS, V25, P113 TURNER BL, 2003, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V100, P8074 NR 16 TC 2 J9 DISASTERS BP 39 EP 48 PY 2006 PD MAR VL 30 IS 1 GA 017LA UT ISI:000235693900004 ER PT J AU SARKAR, RM TI FROM NOMADISM TO SEDENTISM - ADAPTATION AND RESPONSE - AS EXEMPLIFIED BY THE BIRHORS OF CHOTANAGPUR SO MAN IN INDIA LA English DT Article RP SARKAR, RM, BANGABASI COLL,DEPT ANTHROPOL,PB 10867,CALCUTTA 700009,INDIA. AB Nomadic way of life is characterized by the specific patterns of thinking. The nomadic hunting-gathering people are intimately related to the ecological surroundings. The nature of adaptation of the nomadic people to the environment is conditioned by the situational perspectives. Ecological hazards, resulted from deforestation and other allied factors, have been identified as the very sensitive issue during the present period; and the primitive communities living in the lap of nature have become endangered. They are badly in need of resettlement for their smooth existence as well as for the protection of the basic ecology. The Birhors of Chotanagpur bring forth some basic issues of ecological problems. Attempts are being made to transform these people from nomadic into sedentary way of life. The present paper has been designed to highlight, through broad-based field data, the nature and extent of adaptation and response of this nomadic group of people to the process of sedentarication. CR ADHIKARY AK, 1984, SOC WORLD VIEW BIRHO BICHHIERI MG, 1972, HUNTERS GATHHERERS T GAMBLE C, 1968, PALAEOLITHIC SETTLEM IRONS W, 1972, PERSPECTIVE NOMADISM KHAZANOV AM, 1983, NOMADS OUTSIDE WORLD MISRA PK, 1969, J INDIAN ANTHR SOC, V4, P79 MORAN EF, 1982, AAA SELECTED S RAGHHAVIA V, 1958, NOMADS ROY SC, 1925, BIRHORS LITTLE KNOWN SALZMAN PC, 1980, NOMADS SETTLE PROCES SARKAR RM, 1986, VANYAJATI, V34, P17 SARKAR RM, 1990, MAN INDIA, V70, P288 SINHA DP, 1958, J SOCIAL RES, V2, P86 VIDYARTHI LP, 1964, CULTURA CONTOURS TRI NR 14 TC 0 J9 MAN INDIA BP 259 EP 270 PY 1992 PD SEP VL 72 IS 3 GA JU456 UT ISI:A1992JU45600001 ER PT J AU Campbell-Lendrum, D Woodruff, R TI Comparative risk assessment of the burden of disease from climate change SO ENVIRONMENTAL HEALTH PERSPECTIVES LA English DT Article C1 WHO, Dept Publ Hlth & Environm, CH-1211 Geneva, Switzerland. Univ London London Sch Hyg & Trop Med, London WC1E 7HT, England. Australian Natl Univ, Natl Ctr Epidemiol & Populat Hlth, Canberra, ACT, Australia. RP Campbell-Lendrum, D, WHO, Dept Publ Hlth & Environm, CH-1211 Geneva, Switzerland. AB The World Health Organization has developed standardized comparative risk assessment methods for estimating aggregate disease burdens attributable to different risk factors. These have been applied to existing and new models for a range of climate-sensitive diseases in order to estimate the effect of global climate change on current disease burdens and likely proportional changes in the future. The comparative risk assessment approach has been used to assess the health consequences of climate change worldwide, to inform decisions on mitigating greenhouse gas emissions, and in a regional assessment of the Oceania region in the Pacific Ocean to provide more location-specific information relevant to local mitigation and adaptation decisions. The approach places climate change within the same criteria for epidemiologic assessment as other health risks and accounts for the size of the burden of climate-sensitive diseases rather than just proportional change, which highlights the importance of small proportional changes in diseases such as diarrhea and malnutrition that cause a large burden. These exercises help clarify important knowledge gaps such as a relatively poor understanding of the role of nonclimatic factors (socioeconomic and other) that may modify future climatic influences and a lack of empiric evidence and methods for quantifying more complex climate-health relationships, which consequently are often excluded from consideration. These exercises highlight the need for risk assessment frameworks that make the best use of traditional epidemiologic methods and that also fully consider the specific characteristics of climate change. These include the long-term and uncertain nature of the exposure and the effects on multiple physical and biotic systems that have the potential for diverse and widespread effects, including high-impact events. CR *CARB DIOX INF AN, 2003, TRENDS ONL COMP DAT *FAO, 1987, 5 WORLD FOOD SURV *IPCC, 2001, CLIM CHANG 2001 SCI *IPCC, 2001, CLIM CHANG 2001 SYNT *NRC, 2001, WEATH CLIM EC INF DI *OFDA CRED, 2001, EM DAT INT DIS DAT *UN NAT, 1998, KYOT PROT UN NAT FRA *WHO, 2002, WORLD HLTH REP 2002 *WORLD MET ORG, 1989, 10 WCDP WORLD MET OR *WORLD MET ORG, 1989, 34 WCDP WMOTD ARNELL NW, 1999, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V9, P31 ARNELL NW, 2002, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V53, P413 BEGGS PJ, 2004, CLIN EXP ALLERGY, V34, P1507 BRYAN JH, 1996, MED J AUSTRALIA, V164, P345 CHECKLEY W, 2000, LANCET, V355, P442 CIFUENTES L, 2001, ENVIRON HEALTH PE S3, V109, P419 CIFUENTES L, 2001, SCIENCE, V293, P1257 EZZATI M, 2002, LANCET, V360, P1347 EZZATI M, 2004, COMP QUANTIFICATION GOMMES R, 2004, CLIMATE HIV AIDS HOT HAJAT S, 2005, EPIDEMIOLOGY, V16, P613 HALES S, 2002, LANCET, V360, P830 HARTMAN J, 2002, GLOB CHANGE HUM HLTH, V3, P2 HOERLING M, 2003, SCIENCE, V299, P691 HOOZEMANS FMJ, 1995, CLIMATE CHANGE IMPAC, P137 KAY D, 2000, WHOSDEWSH007 ISEE KNUTSON TR, 2004, J CLIMATOL, V17, P3577 KOSATSKY T, 2005, EURO SURVEILL, V10, P148 KOVATS RS, 2001, PHILOS T ROY SOC B, V356, P1057 KUHN KG, 2003, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V100, P9997 MARTENS WJ, 1998, HLTH CLIMATE CHANGE MCMICHAEL AJ, 2003, CLIMATE CHANGE HLTH MCMICHAEL AJ, 2003, HUMAN HLTH CLIMATE C MCMICHAEL AJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, P451 MCMICHAEL AJ, 2004, COMP QUANTIFICATION, P1543 MURRAY CJL, 1994, B WORLD HEALTH ORGAN, V72, P429 MURRAY CJL, 1997, LANCET, V349, P1498 NAKICENOVIC N, 2000, IPCC SPECIAL REPORT NICHOLLS RJ, 1999, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V9, P69 ORESKES N, 2004, SCIENCE, V306, P1686 PARMESAN C, 2003, NATURE, V421, P37 PARRY ML, 1999, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V9, P51 PATZ JA, 2005, NATURE, V438, P310 REITER P, 2001, ENVIRON HEALTH PE S1, V109, P141 ROGERS DJ, 2000, SCIENCE, V289, P1763 SHINDELL DT, 1998, NATURE, V392, P589 SINGH RBK, 2001, ENVIRON HEALTH PERSP, V109, P155 SMALL J, 2003, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V100, P15341 STOTT PA, 2004, NATURE, V432, P610 TANSER FC, 2003, LANCET, V362, P1792 THOMAS CD, 2004, NATURE, V427, P145 THOMAS CJ, 2004, TRENDS PARASITOL, V20, P216 WOODWARD A, 1998, CLIMATE RES, V11, P31 ZHOU G, 2004, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V101, P2375 NR 54 TC 1 J9 ENVIRON HEALTH PERSPECT BP 1935 EP 1941 PY 2006 PD DEC VL 114 IS 12 GA 112BN UT ISI:000242500200044 ER PT J AU Elliott, G Wiltshire, B Manan, IA Wismer, S TI Community participation in marine protected area management: Wakatobi National Park, Sulawesi, Indonesia SO COASTAL MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article C1 Univ Waterloo, Dept Environm & Resources Studies, Waterloo, ON N2L 3G1, Canada. Univ Waterloo, Dept Geog, Waterloo, ON N2L 3G1, Canada. York Univ, Fac Environm Studies, Univ Consortium Environm, Toronto, ON M3J 2R7, Canada. Haluleo Univ, Environm Study Ctr, Kendari, Southeast Sulaw, Indonesia. RP Wismer, S, Univ Waterloo, Dept Environm & Resources Studies, Waterloo, ON N2L 3G1, Canada. AB Coral reef areas are threatened worldwide by growing populations, tourism development, and use of poison and dynamite in fishing in areas adjacent to the reefs. The designation of marine protected areas is one strategy for addressing these problems. Wakatobi National Park, established in Eastern Indonesia in 1996, contains approximately 50,000 ha of coral reefs and a resident population of Sama-Bajo people whose traditions and current livelihoods tie them closely to the sea. The present research, using participatory rural appraisal methods, focused upon the impact of the designation of the Marine Park on their lives and investigated the potential for public participation in park planning and management. The Wakatobi Park Management Plan does not address the needs and interests of local people. Priority should be placed on adaptation of park zoning and protection regulations to accommodate the livelihood requirements of indigenous communities. CR *CANORA AS INC, 1996, INC REP 1996 *DEP KEH, 1997, INF KAW KONS PROP SU *REP IND DEP FOR A, 1995, NEWS VIEWS AUG *STAT MIN ENV, 1997, AG 21 IND NAT STRAT ALCALA AC, 1987, HUMAN IMPACTS CORAL, P51 ALCALA AC, 1988, AMBIO, V17, P194 ALDER J, 1995, 47 EMDI DALH U PRINT ALDER J, 1996, COAST MANAGE, V24, P97 ALDER JA, 1994, OCEAN COASTAL ZONE M, V34, P179 ALLISON WR, 1996, CORAL REEFS, V15, P215 AMAR EC, 1996, FISH RES, V25, P265 BAILEY C, 1992, MARITIME ANTHR STUDI, V5, P1 BUHAT D, 1994, COLLABORATIVE COMMUN, P33 CARTER JA, 1997, ASSESSMENT COASTAL M CHAMBERS R, 1994, WORLD DEV, V22, P1253 CHAMBERS R, 1994, WORLD DEV, V22, P953 CHRISTIE P, 1997, COAST MANAGE, V25, P155 CLARK JR, 1991, PARKS, V2, P13 COBLENTZ BE, 1997, CONSERV BIOL, V11, P559 GARDY TS, 1997, MARINE PROTECTED ARE GARE NC, 1975, P INT C MAR PARKS RE, P65 GILMAN EL, 1997, COAST MANAGE, V25, P59 GRENIER L, 1998, WORKING INDIGENOUS K HALE LZ, 1994, COLLABORATIVE COMMUN, P68 HAWKINS JP, 1992, BIOL CONSERV, V62, P171 HAWKINS JP, 1993, J APPL ECOL, V30, P25 HIRSCH P, 1998, POLITICS ENV S E ASI HUTOMO M, 1993, UNEP COBSEA NOSTE WO JENNINGS S, 1996, AMBIO, V25, P44 JENNINGS S, 1996, REEF FISHERIES, P193 KENCHINGTON R, 1995, MARINE PROTECTED ARE, P85 KENCHINGTON RA, 1990, MANAGING MARINE ENV KUSUMAATMADJA M, 1996, MAR POLICY, V20, P63 LAFFOLEY D, 1995, MARINE PROTECTED ARE, P103 LAROCHE J, 1995, CORAL REEFS, V14, P193 LI TM, 1999, TRANSFORMING INDONES LUBIS R, 1994, PRIORITY ENV ISSUES, P95 LUNDIN CG, 1993, AMBIO, V22, P468 MARAGOS JE, 1996, OCEANOGRAPHY, V9, P83 MCALLISTER K, 1996, THESIS DALHOUSIE U H MCCLANAHAN TR, 1996, CONSERV BIOL, V10, P1187 MCMANUS JW, 1992, RESOURCE ECOLOGY JUL MCMANUS JW, 1995, 4 ANN COMM PROP C HE, P193 MCMANUS JW, 1996, REEF FISHERIES, P249 MCMANUS JW, 1997, CORAL REEFS, V16, P1 NEILSON JP, 1999, OCEAN COASTAL ZONE M, V42, P19 POMEROY RS, 1991, MAR POLICY, V14, P39 POMEROY RS, 1995, OCEAN COAST MANAGE, V27, P143 ROBERTS CM, 1993, AMBIO, V22, P229 ROBERTS CM, 1995, CONSERV BIOL, V9, P988 ROSS S, 1997, THESIS U WATERLOO WA ROUPHAEL AB, 1997, BIOL CONSERV, V82, P329 RUDDLE K, 1996, REEF FISHERIES, P315 RUSS GR, 1996, ECOL APPL, V6, P947 SALM RV, 1985, INT J ENVIRON STUD, V25, P229 SATHER C, 1997, BAJAU LAUT ADAPTATIO SIMPSON P, 1999, TOURISM MANAGE, V20, P283 SLOAN NA, 1994, COAST MANAGE, V22, P215 TICCO PC, 1995, COAST MANAGE, V23, P309 TILMANT JT, 1987, HUMAN IMPACTS CORAL, P195 TOMASCIK T, 1993, 35 EMDI DALH PRINT C VEITAYAKI J, 1998, COAST MANAGE, V26, P47 WANTIEZ L, 1997, CORAL REEFS, V16, P215 WATSON RA, 1995, 44 EMDI WELLS S, 1992, PEOPLE PARKS LINKING WELLS S, 1995, MARINE PROTECTED ARE, P61 WHITE AT, 1991, ENVIRON CONSERV, V18, P148 WHITE AT, 1994, COLLABORATIVE COMMUN WICAKSONO A, 1995, FOR WORKSH MAR BIOD WIDJAJAADHI PG, 1994, IARD J, V16, P37 YATES BF, 1994, COAST MANAGE, V22, P235 ZERNER C, 2000, PEOPLE PLANTS JUSTIC NR 72 TC 6 J9 COAST MANAGE BP 295 EP 316 PY 2001 PD OCT-DEC VL 29 IS 4 GA 473BB UT ISI:000171018500003 ER PT J AU CLAPHAM, WB TI ENVIRONMENTAL-PROBLEMS, DEVELOPMENT, AND AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION SYSTEMS SO ENVIRONMENTAL CONSERVATION LA English DT Article RP CLAPHAM, WB, ENVIRONM PERSPECT INC,2081 LAMBERTON RD,CLEVELAND,OH 44118. CR 1977, AGRICULTURAL ISSUE P BISWAS AK, SCIENCE BROWN CH, 1955, EYPTIAN COTTON CLAPHAM WB, 1976, HUMAN ECOLOGY, V4, P1 CLAPHAM WB, 1978, RM7829 IIASA RES MEM CLAPHAM WB, 1978, RM7830 IIASA RES MEM CLAPHAM WB, 1978, RM7831 IIASA RES MEM CLAPHAM WB, 1979, INTEGRATED VIEW ENV CLAPHAM WB, 1979, WP7979 IIASA WORK PA ELTOBGY HA, 1976, CONT EGYPTIAN AGRICU GEERTZ C, 1963, AGRICULTURAL INVOLUT GOLUBEV GN, 1978, RM7832 IIASA RES MEM HANSON AJ, 1977, 4 PUS STUD PENG SUMB, P1 HOLLING CS, 1978, ADAPTIVE ENV ASSESSM PICARDI AC, 1977, EKISTICS, V258, P297 RAPPAPORT RA, 1967, PIGS ANCESTORS RITUA, V1, P1 WEBB HR, 1978, VARIOUS REPORTS AGRI NR 17 TC 2 J9 ENVIRON CONSERV BP 145 EP 152 PY 1980 VL 7 IS 2 GA KE409 UT ISI:A1980KE40900018 ER PT J AU Holman, IP Nicholls, RJ Berry, PM Harrison, PA Audsley, E Shackley, S Rounsevell, MDA TI A regional, multi-sectoral and integrated assessment of the impacts of climate and socio-economic change in the UK SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 Cranfield Univ, Inst Water & Environm, Bedford MK45 4DT, England. Univ Southampton, Sch Civil Engn & Environm, Southampton SO17 1BJ, Hants, England. Univ Oxford, Environm Change Inst, Oxford OX1 3UB, England. Silsoe Res Inst, Silsoe MK45 4HS, Beds, England. Univ Manchester, Tyndall Ctr Climate Change Res, Manchester, Lancs, England. Univ Catholique Louvain, B-1348 Louvain, Belgium. RP Holman, IP, Cranfield Univ, Inst Water & Environm, Bedford MK45 4DT, England. AB The 'Regional Climate Change Impact and Response Studies in East Anglia and North West England' (RegIS) integrated assessment (IA) investigated climate and socio-economic impacts and adaptation options, and cross-sectoral interactions between four major sectors driving landscape change (agriculture, biodiversity, coastal zones and water resources). The baseline and two contrasting climate change scenarios (with and without regional socio-economic change scenarios) were investigated. RegIS showed that climate change, without policy adaptation, could lead to severe flood impacts in East Anglia, and significant agricultural abandonment. Despite yield changes, cropping is generally insensitive to climate, but very sensitive to socio-economic change. There is increased seasonality to river flows, compounded by increased urbanisation and irrigation demand. The responses of biodiversity to climate change are regional, habitat and species-specific, but much of the future of biodiversity in these regions will depend on planned adaptation in the other sectors. Numerous examples of public engagement with the global change sphere represent the real outward value of RegIS, due to the significant uncertainties and limitations to knowledge in this first regional IA which prevented results of the detail, specificity and confidence that decision-makers required. However, with further investment and refinement, regional IA's will increasingly provide such output. CR *DEFRA, 2001, SHOR MAN PLANS GUID *IPCC, 2001, TECHN SUMM CLIM CHAN, P1000 *MIN AGR, 1999, FLOOD COAST DEF PROJ ABLER DG, 2002, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V55, P339 ARNELL NW, 2000, ASSESSMENT POTENTIAL ARNELL NW, 1996, GLOVAL WARMING RIVER, P224 BALE JS, 2002, GLOBAL CHANGE BIOL, V8, P1 BERRY PM, 2001, REGIONAL CLIMATE IMP, P192 BERRY PM, 2002, GLOBAL ECOL BIOGEOGR, V11, P453 CANNON RJC, 1998, GLOB CHANGE BIOL, V4, P785 CARTER TR, 1994, TECHNICAL GUIDELINES COOPER NJ, 2002, P I CIVIL ENG-WATER, V154, P221 DAVIES A, 1997, 2524 MAFF DIXON MJ, 1997, SPATIAL ANAL UK COAS HARREMOES P, 2001, REG ENV CHANGE, V2, P57 HARRISON PA, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE NATUR HIGGINS SI, 1999, AM NAT, V153, P464 HOLMAN IP, 2001, REGIS REG CLIM CHANG, P20 HOLMAN IP, 2005, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V71, P9 HOSSELL JE, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE NATUR, P257 HULME M, 1998, CLIMATE CHANGE SCENA, P80 HUNTLEY B, 1995, J BIOGEOGR, V22, P967 MARITIME HRH, 2000, NATL APPRAISAL ASSET MCKENZIEHEGDER M, 2000, CLIMATE CHANGE ASSES PARRY ML, 1998, CLIM IMP AD ASS GUID PARSON EA, 2003, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V57, P9 PEARSON RG, 2004, IN PRESS ECOGRAPHY REYNARD N, 1999, CLIMATE CHANGE IMPAC RIEBSARNE WE, 1988, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V28, P45 RODWELL J, 1998, CLIMATE CHANGE VEGET, P14 WATKINSON A, 2003, ASS ENV IMP FUT FLOO NR 31 TC 4 J9 CLIMATIC CHANGE BP 43 EP 73 PY 2005 PD JUL VL 71 IS 1-2 GA 955IJ UT ISI:000231219300003 ER PT J AU KURITA, H TI DO THEY KNOW THEY ARE ECOLOGICALLY RATIONAL - ECOLOGICAL ANTHROPOLOGY AND SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT IN PAPUA-NEW-GUINEA SO ANTHROPOLOGICAL SCIENCE LA English DT Article RP KURITA, H, TOKYO UNIV FOREIGN STUDIES,FAC FOREIGN STUDIES,KITA KU,4-51-21 NISHIGAHARA,TOKYO 114,JAPAN. AB Studies of ecological anthropology in Papua New Guinea have been quite successful in showing that the peoples under study have developed various adaptive mechanisms in relation to their environmental settings. Their basic assumption, that it does not matter at all whether the peoples are aware of their adaptive mechanisms or not, however, poses a problem concerning development. As my data obtained from the Fasu of the Southern Highlands show, Papua New Guineans are aware of their adaptation in relation to environmental settings. It is the people concerned, not those who are responsible for the introduction of a development project, who should assess whether the project is sustainable or not; their assessments in their own terms are ecologically rational. CR BAYLISSSMITH TP, 1977, SUBSISTENCE SURVIVAL, P11 HARRIS M, 1974, COWS PIGS WARS WITCH HARRIS M, 1985, GOOD EAT RIDDLES FOO HARRIS M, 1987, HUM ECOL, V15, P511 LINDENBAUM S, 1972, ETHNOLOGY, V11, P241 LINDENBAUM S, 1975, OCEANIA, V46, P68 RAPPAPORT RA, 1967, PIGS ANCESTORS RITUA, V1, P1 RAPPAPORT RA, 1979, ECOLOGY MEANING RELI RAPPAPORT RA, 1984, PIGS ANCESTORS RITUA SALISBURY RF, 1975, ANTHROPOLOGICA, V17, P127 VAYDA AP, 1968, PIGS ANCESTORS RITUA, R9 VAYDA AP, 1971, OCEANIA, V42, P1 VAYDA AP, 1975, ANNU REV ANTHROPOL, V4, P293 VAYDA AP, 1976, WAR ECOLOGICAL PERSP VAYDA AP, 1986, REV ANTHR, V13, P295 VAYDA AP, 1987, HUM ECOL, V15, P493 WAGNER R, 1967, CURSE SOUW PRINCIPLE WEINER JF, 1988, MOUNTAIN PAPUNAS HIS NR 18 TC 0 J9 ANTHROPOL SCI BP 329 EP 338 PY 1995 PD OCT VL 103 IS 4 GA TC830 UT ISI:A1995TC83000004 ER PT J AU Berkhout, F TI Rationales for adaptation in EU climate change policies SO CLIMATE POLICY LA English DT Article C1 Vrije Univ Amsterdam, Inst Environm Studies, NL-1081 HV Amsterdam, Netherlands. RP Berkhout, F, Vrije Univ Amsterdam, Inst Environm Studies, De Boelelaan 1087, NL-1081 HV Amsterdam, Netherlands. AB This article sets out a series of rationales for public policy related to adaptation to the impacts of climatic change in the EU. It begins by arguing that both mitigation and adaptation are necessary parts of a coordinated policy response to the problem of climatic change, However, the 'problem structure' of adaptation is significantly different from that of mitigation. For instance, adaptation may generate private benefits that are likely to be experienced over the short term, relative to benefits associated with the impacts of mitigation actions which are public and experienced over the longer term. This divergence influences public policy rationales for adaptation and poses challenges for the integration of mitigation and adaptation in climate policies. Five key challenges facing climate adaptation are identified, and these are used as a basis for proposing rationales for policy action on climate adaptation. These relate to: information provision and research; early warning and disaster relief, facilitating adaptation options; regulating the distributional impacts of adaptation; and regulating infrastructures. The article concludes by arguing that the real integration problem for adaptation policy relates to how it is embedded in sectoral policies such as agriculture and transport, rather than how to achieve integration with mitigation policies. CR *CEC, 2005, 200535 COM CEC MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 *IPCC, 2001, CLIM CHANG 2001 SYNT *UNEP, 2004, EARL WARN EM ENV THR, V2 ADGER WN, 2004, 7 UEA TYND CTR ADGER WN, 2003, ECON GEOGR, V79, P387 ARNELL NW, 1998, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V39, P83 BERKHOUT F, 2004, 47 UEA TYND CTR CLIM EASTERLING WE, 2004, COPING GLOBAL CLIMAT FOLKE C, 2002, RESILIENCE SUSTAINAB FUKUI H, 1979, P WORLD CLIM C GEN, P426 HERTIN J, 2003, BUILD RES INF, V31, P278 HEWITT K, 1971, HAZARDOUSNESS PLACE HULME M, 2002, UKCIP02 U E ANGL SCH KLEIN RJT, 1997, FCCCTP19973 UNFCC SE MADDISON D, 2001, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V49, P193 MENDELSOHN R, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P553 MEYER WB, 1998, HUMAN CHOICE CLIMATE, V3, P217 MORTIMORE MJ, 1989, ADAPTING DROUGHT FAR PARRY ML, 1986, SUSTAINABLE DEV BIOS, P378 RAYNER S, 1998, HUMAN CHOICE CLIMATE, V3 ROSENZWEIG C, 1994, NATURE, V367, P133 SMIT B, 2003, CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPT, P9 TOL RSJ, 1998, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V8, P109 TURNER BL, 2003, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V100, P8074 WARRICK RA, 1986, GREENHOUSE EFFECT CL, P393 WILBANKS TJ, 2003, INTEGRATING MITIGATI NR 27 TC 0 J9 CLIM POLICY BP 377 EP 391 PY 2005 VL 5 IS 3 GA 991UN UT ISI:000233839700010 ER PT J AU Kundzewicz, ZW TI Non-structural flood protection and sustainability SO WATER INTERNATIONAL LA English DT Article C1 Polish Acad Sci, Res Ctr Agr & Forest Environm, Poznan, Poland. RP Kundzewicz, ZW, Polish Acad Sci, Res Ctr Agr & Forest Environm, Poznan, Poland. AB In this article, flood protection is considered in the context of sustainability. On the one hand, floods destroy human heritage and jeopardize sustainable development, which can be defined as 11 non-decreasing quality of life. " On the other hand, following the most common interpretation of sustainable development, one should not choose flood protection policies that could be rated by future generations as inappropriate options of flood defense. This is how several large structural flood defenses are often viewed. Non-structural measures are in better agreement with the spirit of sustainable development, being more reversible, commonly acceptable, and environment-friendly. Among such measures are source control (watershed/landscape structure management), laws and regulations (including zoning), economic instruments, an efficient flood forecast-warning system, a system of flood risk assessment, awareness raising, flood-related data bases, etc. As flood safety cannot be reached in most vulnerable areas with the help of structural means only, further flood risk reduction via non-structural measures is usually indispensable, and a site-specific mix of structural and non-structural measures seems to be a proper solution. Since sustainabiliiy requires thinking about the future generations, the climate change issue becomes important. Non-structural measures lend themselves well to application in climate change adaptation strategies. As uncertainty in the assessment of climate change impacts is high, flexibility of adaptation strategies is particularly advantageous. CR *ENV AG UK, 1998, ACT PLAN FLOOD DEF *IFRCRCS, 1997, WORLD DIS REP 1997 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 *IPCC, 2001, CLIM CHANG 2001 SCI *IUCN, 1991, CAR EARTH STRAT SUST *WCED, 1987, OUR COMM FUT *WMO, 1995, INFOHYDRO MAN ARNELL NW, 1999, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHA S, V9, S31 BERZ G, 2001, CLIMATE 21 CENTURY C, P392 BRONSTERT A, 1996, 17 PIK BROOKS H, 1992, ATAS B, V7, P19 ENGEL H, 1997, IAHS PUBL, V239, P21 GALLOWAY GE, 1999, RIBAMOD RIVER BASIN, P235 GARDINER J, 1995, DEFENCE FLOODS FLOOD, P13 GILVEAR DJ, 1999, HYDROLOG SCI J, V44, P345 KARL TR, 1995, NATURE, V377, P217 KUNDZEWICZ ZW, 1987, IAHS PUBL, V171 KUNDZEWICZ ZW, 1997, HYDROLOG SCI J, V42, P467 KUNDZEWICZ ZW, 1999, HYDROLOG SCI J, V44, P417 KUNDZEWICZ ZW, 1999, HYDROLOG SCI J, V44, P559 KUNDZEWICZ ZW, 1999, HYDROLOG SCI J, V44, P855 KUNDZEWICZ ZW, 2000, DETECTING TREND OTHE KUNDZEWICZ ZW, 2000, WATER INT, V25, P66 KUNDZEWICZ ZW, 2001, INT J SUST DEV WORLD, V8, P290 LINS HF, 1999, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V26, P227 LOUCKS DP, 1994, P INT UNESCO S KARLS MANSELL MG, 1997, NORD HYDROL, V28, P37 NEWSON M, 1997, LAND WATER DEV SUSTA NOBILIS F, 1997, IAHS PUBL, V239 OLSEN JR, 1999, J AM WATER RESOUR AS, V35, P1509 OSBORN TJ, 2000, INT J CLIMATOL, V20, P347 PARRY ML, 2000, ASSESSMENT POTENTIAL PIELKE RA, 2000, J CLIMATE, V13, P3625 RADZIEJEWSKI M, 2000, HYDROLOG SCI J, V45, P547 ROBSON AJ, 1996, FLOOD ESTIMATION HDB TAKEUCHI K, 1998, IAHS PUBL, V251 THOMAS FH, 1995, DEFENCE FLOODS FLOOD, P257 TRENBERTH KE, 1998, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V39, P667 WILLIAMS PB, 1994, CIVIL ENG MAY, P51 NR 39 TC 1 J9 WATER INT BP 3 EP 13 PY 2002 PD MAR VL 27 IS 1 GA 549QL UT ISI:000175455700002 ER PT B AU McCarthy, JJ Canziani, OF Leary, NA Dokken, DJ White, KS TI IPCC (2001) Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation, Vulnerability: Contribution of Working Group II to the Third Assessment Report of the IPCC. SO CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 LA English DT Book AB This report examines climate change impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability across a range of systems and sectors, as was done in previous reports. Environmental, social, and economic dimensions of these issues are assessed. Efforts were made to include assessments on sustainable development, equity, scientific uncertainties, costing methodologies, and decisionmaking frameworks. Understanding the determinants of adaptive capacity has advanced and comfirms the conclusion that developing countries, particularly the least developed countries, have lesser capacity to adapt than do developed countries. This condition contributes to relatively high vulnerability to damagin effects of climate change in these countries. 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US Geol Survey, Great Lakes Sci Ctr, Ann Arbor, MI 48105 USA. US Geol Survey, Ft Collins Sci Ctr, Ft Collins, CO 80526 USA. US Geol Survey, Glacier Natl Pk Headquaters, W Glacier, MT 59936 USA. US Geol Survey, Ft Collins Sci Ctr, Ft Collins, CO 80523 USA. Colorado State Univ, Nat Resource Ecol Lab, Ft Collins, CO 80523 USA. Calif State Univ Los Angeles, Dept Geol & Environm Sci, Chico, CA 95929 USA. US Geol Survey, Alaska Sci Ctr, Anchorage, AK 99503 USA. US Geol Survey, Ft Collins Sci Ctr, Jemez Mt Field Stn, Los Alamos, NM 87544 USA. US Forest Serv, Pacific NW Res Stn, Seattle, WA USA. Nat Resources Consultants Inc, Seattle, WA 98119 USA. RP Burkett, VR, US Geol Survey, Natl Wetlands Res Ctr, 700 Cajundome Blvd, Lafayette, LA 70506 USA. AB Many biological, hydrological, and geological processes are interactively linked in ecosystems. These ecological phenomena normally vary within bounded ranges, but rapid, nonlinear changes to markedly different conditions can be triggered by even small differences if threshold values arc exceeded. Intrinsic and extrinsic ecological thresholds can lead to effects that cascade among systems, precluding accurate modeling and prediction of system response to climate change. Ten case studies from North America illustrate how charges in climate can lead to rapid, threshold-type responses within ecological communities;, the case studies also highlight the role of human activities that alter the rate or direction of system response to climate change. Understanding and anticipating nonlinear dynamics are important aspects of adaptation planning since responses of biological resources to changes in the physical climate system are not necessarily proportional and sometimes, as in the case of complex ecological systems, inherently nonlinear. Published by Elsevier B.V. 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BOT, V28, P227 WILLIAMS K, 1999, ECOLOGY, V80, P2045 WILLIAMS KL, 1999, 990441 USGS WINTER TC, 1989, NO PRAIRIE WETLANDS, P16 WINTER TC, 1998, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V40, P189 WITH KA, 2002, CONSERV BIOL, V16, P1192 WOO MK, 1986, ATMOS OCEAN, V24, P201 WOODWARD A, 1995, ARCTIC ALPINE RES, V27, P217 YOUNG RS, 1995, THESIS DUKE U DURHAM YOUNG VA, 1956, J RANGE MANAGE, V9, P139 ZHANG XB, 2000, ATMOS OCEAN, V38, P395 ZHANG XB, 2001, J CLIMATE, V14, P1923 NR 258 TC 3 J9 ECOL COMPLEX BP 357 EP 394 PY 2005 PD DEC VL 2 IS 4 GA 987NF UT ISI:000233523900003 ER PT J AU Harle, KJ Howden, SM Hunt, LP Dunlop, M TI The potential impact of climate change on the Australian wool industry by 2030 SO AGRICULTURAL SYSTEMS LA English DT Article C1 CSIRO, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia. CSIRO, Canberra, ACT 2602, Australia. CSIRO, Winnellie, NT 0822, Canada. RP Harle, KJ, CSIRO, GPO Box 2697, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia. AB By 2030, climate change is likely to have implications for the Australian wool industry, principally through effects on forage and water resources, land carrying capacity and sustainability, animal health, and competition with other sectors, in particular cropping. The nature and scale of these impacts will vary between the wool growing regions, depending on the manifestation of the climate change. The growth and quality of pasture and fodder crops may be affected by changes in rainfall amounts and variability as well as higher CO2 concentrations. Water resources in many regions are projected to decrease and become more variable. Animal health is expected to be adversely affected by rising temperatures and a greater incidence and range of pests and diseases. There is likely to be greater stress on the landscape principally brought about by rainfall deficits and increased climatic variability. There is also a strong possibility of increased competition for water and land resources from other agricultural activities, particularly cropping and meat production. The combination of these effects is likely to have an impact on both wool production and quality, with reduced productivity in marginal areas, possibly increased productivity in higher rainfall regions, increases in vegetable fault and dust contamination and changes in mean fibre diameter and staple strength. National and international markets could also be affected, with reductions in demand for apparel wool fibre in response to a more temperate climate. International production and supply markets might also shift, with the wetter wool growing areas of both New Zealand and China potentially being advantaged by climate change, and the drier wool regions of these countries being disadvantaged. A preliminary qualitative scenario analysis suggests that although the wool industry will be significantly affected by climate change, as a whole it is likely to be relatively robust to it. Early adaptation, for example through efforts to produce low emission grazing systems, more sustainable management especially in the rangelands, and improved management of the effects of climate variation, could significantly reduce the downsides of climate change impacts. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 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CSIRO, Natl Rangelands Program, Alice Springs, NT 0871, Australia. RP Campbell, BD, AgRes, Grassland Res Ctr, Private Bag 11008, Palmerston North, New Zealand. AB There is significant uncertainty about the effects of global change on the vegetation and animal productivity of pasture and rangeland ecosystems. This paper presents a synthesis of progress made between 1994 and 1999 in the Global Change and Terrestrial Ecosystems (GCTE) Pastures and Rangelands Core Research Project 1 (CRP1) network, a world-wide network of 83 full-time equivalent researchers established in different pasture and rangelands systems to reduce these uncertainties. The network focuses on key processes controlling forage and animal production at a paddock/landscape scale, in order to improve the ability to model animal production. To date, the network has resulted in a considerable reduction in the uncertainties about the effects of elevated CO2 on growth, and to a lesser extent composition and forage quality, of intensive pastures in cool, wet climatic zones. However, knowledge of other grazed ecosystems and processes is more limited. The greatest confidence is in predicting implications for vegetation production, with lesser confidence in implications for vegetation composition, animal production and adaptation options. Overall, the stimulatory effect of double ambient CO2 on grassland production averages about +17% in ecosystem-based experiments. This is less than previous estimates. Individual system responses to elevated CO2 can vary widely and are predicted to be higher in moisture-limited and warm-season grassland systems. Species composition change is likely to be an important mechanism altering grassland production and its value for grazing livestock, especially in drier rangelands with woody shrub invasion. On average, the legume content of productive grass-legume swards is increased by +10% due to CO2 enrichment. Leaf nitrogen reductions due to elevated CO2 are often observed but are generally modest compared with effects of other management factors. New data collection efforts should be focused in areas of the world which are most sensitive to food security issues and most subject to global change, in particular humid semi-arid margins and subtropical grasslands. There remains no good basis for extrapolating findings between different pasture and rangeland systems. This synthesis indicates that greater focus is required on the linkages between the biophysical, social and economic factors that will influence future changes in pasture and rangeland ecosystems and their implications for food security, (C) 2000 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. 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NR 0 TC 0 J9 WATER AIR SOIL POLLUT BP R7 EP R7 PY 1996 PD SEP VL 92 IS 1-2 GA VM538 UT ISI:A1996VM53800001 ER PT J AU Mills, E TI Climate change, insurance and the buildings sector: technological synergisms between adaptation and mitigation SO BUILDING RESEARCH AND INFORMATION LA English DT Article C1 Lawrence Berkeley Natl Lab, Berkeley, CA 94720 USA. RP Mills, E, Lawrence Berkeley Natl Lab, MS 90-4000, Berkeley, CA 94720 USA. AB Examining the intersection of risk analysis and sustainable energy strategies reveals numerous examples of energy-efficient and renewable energy technologies that offer insurance loss-prevention benefits. The growing threat of climate change provides an added motivation for the risk community to understand better this area of opportunity. While analyses of climate change mitigation typically focus on the emissions-reduction characteristics of sustainable energy technologies, less often recognised are a host of synergistic ways in which these technologies also offer adaptation benefits, e.g. making buildings more resilient to natural disasters. While there is already some relevant activity, there remain various barriers to expanding these efforts significantly. Achieving successful integration of sustainable energy considerations with risk-management objectives requires a more proactive orientation, and coordination among diverse actors and industry groups. 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Compass Resource Management Ltd, Vancouver, BC V6B 2S8, Canada. Nat Resources Canada, Canadian Forest Serv, No Forestry Ctr, Edmonton, AB T6H 3S5, Canada. RP McKinnon, GA, Nat Resources Canada, Canadian Climate Impacts & Adaptat Res Network Fo, No Forestry Ctr, Edmonton, AB T6H 3S5, Canada. AB Climate change presents a risk to the composition, health, and vitality of Canada's forests and forest sector. Effects may be either negative or positive, and will interact in complex ways over many spatial and temporal scales depending on such factors as physical geography, forest type, and forest management practices. Given the apparent vulnerability of forests and the forest sector to climate change, it is prudent that forest and forest-based community managers begin to develop adaptive strategies to minimize the risks and maximize the benefits of climate change. A flexible planning framework that incorporates key principles of structured decision-making and risk management is presented as a practical way to integrate climate change adaptation into forest management planning. CR *CLIM CHANG IMP AD, 2004, CLIM CHANG IMP AD CA *STAND SEN COMM AG, 2003, CLIM CHANG WE AR RIS AHMAD QK, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, CH2 BELL ML, 2001, J MULTICRITERIA DECI, V10, P229 BROOKS N, 2003, 38 TYND CTR CLIM CHA COHEN SJ, 1998, HDB METHODS CLIMATE, CH2 DAVIDSON DJ, 2003, CAN J FOREST RES, V33, P2252 EASTERLING WE, 2004, COPING GLOBAL CLIMAT FEENSTRA JF, 1998, HDB METHODS CLIMATE GAUTHIER S, 2004, P WORKSH HELD QUEB C HAUER G, 2001, NORX373 CAN FOR SERV HOUGHTON JT, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 LIM B, 2003, ADAPTATION POLICY FR SCOTT D, 2002, GLOBAL ECOL BIOGEOGR, V11, P475 SMIT B, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, CH18 SMIT B, 2002, ENHANCING CAPACITY D SPITTELHOUSE DL, 2003, BC J ECOSYSTEMS MANA, V4 TURNER BL, 2003, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V100, P8074 WILLOWS RI, 2003, CLIMATE ADAPTATION R NR 19 TC 4 J9 FOREST CHRON BP 97 EP 103 PY 2005 PD JAN-FEB VL 81 IS 1 GA 911MH UT ISI:000228006400035 ER PT J AU Brooks, N Adger, WN Kelly, PM TI The determinants of vulnerability and adaptive capacity at the national level and the implications for adaptation SO GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS LA English DT Article C1 Univ E Anglia, Tyndall Ctr Climate Change Res, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. Univ E Anglia, CSERGE, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. Univ E Anglia, Climat Res Unit, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. RP Brooks, N, Univ E Anglia, Tyndall Ctr Climate Change Res, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. AB We present a set of indicators of vulnerability and capacity to adapt to climate variability, and by extension climate change, derived using a novel empirical analysis of data aggregated at the national level on a decadal timescale. The analysis is based on a conceptual framework in which risk is viewed in terms of outcome, and is a function of physically defined climate hazards and socially constructed vulnerability. Climate outcomes are represented by mortality from climate-related disasters, using the emergency events database data set, statistical relationships between mortality and a shortlist of potential proxies for vulnerability are used to identify key vulnerability indicators. We find that 11 key indicators exhibit a strong relationship with decadally aggregated mortality associated with climate-related disasters. Validation of indicators, relationships between vulnerability and adaptive capacity, and the sensitivity of subsequent vulnerability assessments to different sets of weightings are explored using expert judgement data, collected through a focus group exercise. The data are used to provide a robust assessment of vulnerability to climate-related mortality at the national level, and represent an entry point to more detailed explorations of vulnerability and adaptive capacity. They indicate that the most vulnerable nations are those situated in sub-Saharan Africa and those that have recently experienced conflict. Adaptive capacity-one element of vulnerability-is associated predominantly with governance, civil and political rights, and literacy. (C) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *UNDHA, 1992, INT AGR GLOSS BAS TE ADGER WN, 1999, MITIG ADAPT STRAT GL, V4, P253 ADGER WN, 1999, WORLD DEV, V27, P249 ALAM M, 2003, NAT AD PROGR ACT NAP BARNETT J, 2005, IN PRESS JUSTICE VUL BELL S, 1999, SUSTAINABILITY INDIC BROOKS N, 2003, 38 U E ANGL TYND CTR BROOKS N, 2003, UNPUB AMBIO BROOKS N, 2004, 61 U E ANGL TYND CTR CONWAY D, 2005, GLOBAL ENV CHANGE, V15, P99 DOWNING TE, 2001, UNEP POLICY SERIES EASTERLING DR, 2000, SCIENCE, V289, P2068 EBISUZAKI W, 1997, J CLIMATE, V10, P2147 FRICH P, 2002, CLIMATE RES, V19, P193 HAAN N, 2001, CHRONIC VULNERABILIT HADDAD B, 2005, GLOBAL ENV CHANGE, V15 JONES R, 2003, ASSESSING CURRENT CL KAUFMANN D, 1999, 2195 WORLD BANK KAUFMANN D, 1999, GOVERNANCE MATTERS KELLY PM, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V47, P325 KNACK S, 1997, Q J ECON, V112, P1251 KRUGMAN P, 1995, Q J ECON, V110, P857 LAWN PA, 2003, ECOL ECON, V44, P105 LEICHENKO RM, 2002, MITIGATION ADAPTATIO, V7, P1 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 MORGAN DL, 1996, ANNU REV SOCIOL, V22, P129 MOSS RH, 1999, VULNERABILITY CLIMAT NEUMAYER E, 2001, ECOL ECON, V39, P101 NORDHAUS WD, 1994, AM SCI, V82, P45 OBRIEN KL, 2004, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V14, P303 OBRIEN KL, 2003, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V93, P89 SMIT B, 1999, MITIGATION ADAPTATIO, V4, P199 SMIT B, 2001, ADAPTATION CLIMATE C SMITH K, 1996, ENV HAZARDS STENCHION P, 1997, AUSTR J EMERGENCY MA, V12, P40 STEWART F, 2002, BRIT MED J, V324, P342 VAUGHAN DG, 2002, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V52, P65 WISNER B, 2003, RISK NATURAL HAZARDS YOHE GW, 2002, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V12, P25 NR 39 TC 12 J9 GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANGE BP 151 EP 163 PY 2005 PD JUL VL 15 IS 2 GA 931VR UT ISI:000229514100008 ER PT J AU Janssen, MA TI Use of complex adaptive systems for modeling global change SO ECOSYSTEMS LA English DT Article C1 Natl Inst Publ Hlth & Environm, Bur Environm Assessment, MNV,RIVM, NL-3720 BA Bilthoven, Netherlands. RP Janssen, MA, Natl Inst Publ Hlth & Environm, Bur Environm Assessment, MNV,RIVM, POB 1, NL-3720 BA Bilthoven, Netherlands. AB Global modeling has been used for decades to assess the possible futures of humanity and the global environment. However, these models do not always satisfactorily include the adaptive characteristics of systems. In this article, a general approach is used to simulate change and transition at a macrolevel due to adaptation at a microlevel. Tools from complex adaptive systems research are used to simulate the microlevel and consequently determine parameter values of the equation-based macrolevel model. Two case studies that applied this approach are reviewed. The first study assessed the efficacy of efforts to control malaria, whereas the second study used an integrated model to construct climate change scenarios by using various possible views an the nature of the climate system. CR *IPCC, 1996, CLIM CHANG 1995 *UNEP, 1997, GLOB ENV OUTL *WHO, 1996, WORLD HLTH REP 1996 ALCAMO J, 1994, INTEGRATED MODELLING ANDERSON PW, 1988, EC EVOLVING COMPLEX CALE WG, 1995, COMPLEX ECOLOGY PART COX CB, 1993, BIOGEOGRAPHY ECOLOGI GOLDBERG D, 1989, GENETIC ALGORITHMS S HOLLAND JH, 1975, ADAPTATION NATURAL A HOLLAND JH, 1992, SCI AM, V267, P44 HOLLING CS, 1986, SUSTAINABLE DEV BIOS, V1, P1 JANSSEN MA, 1998, ECOL ECON, V26, P43 JANSSEN MA, 1997, ARTIF LIFE, V3, P213 JANSSEN MA, 1998, MODELLING GLOBAL CHA KROGSTAD DJ, 1996, EPIDEMIOL REV, V18, P77 LANGTON CG, 1995, ARTIFICIAL LIFE OVER MEADOWS MH, 1972, LIMITS GROWTH MITCHELL M, 1996, INTRO GENETIC ALGORI NORDHAUS WD, 1992, SCIENCE, V258, P1315 RASTETTER EB, 1992, ECOL APPL, V2, P55 THOMPSON M, 1990, CULTURAL THEORY VITOUSEK PM, 1997, SCIENCE, V277, P494 NR 22 TC 3 J9 ECOSYSTEMS BP 457 EP 463 PY 1998 PD SEP-OCT VL 1 IS 5 GA 134NZ UT ISI:000076750600008 ER PT J AU Nicholls, RJ Tol, RSJ TI Impacts and responses to sea-level rise: a global analysis of the SRES scenarios over the twenty-first century SO PHILOSOPHICAL TRANSACTIONS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY A-MATHEMATICAL PHYSICAL AND ENGINEERING SCIENCES LA English DT Article C1 Univ Southampton, Sch Civil Engn & Environm, Southampton SO17 1BJ, Hants, England. Univ Southampton, Tyndall Ctr Climate Change Res, Southampton SO17 1BJ, Hants, England. Univ Hamburg, Res Unit Sustainabil & Global Change, Ctr Marine & Atmospher Sci, D-20146 Hamburg, Germany. Free Univ Amsterdam, Inst Environm Studies, NL-1081 HV Amsterdam, Netherlands. Carnegie Mellon Univ, Dept Engn & Publ Policy, Pittsburgh, PA 15213 USA. RP Nicholls, RJ, Univ Southampton, Sch Civil Engn & Environm, Southampton SO17 1BJ, Hants, England. AB Taking the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) climate and socio-economic,scenarios (A1FI, A2, B1 and B2 'future worlds'), the potential impacts of sea-level rise through the twenty-first century are explored using complementary impact and economic analysis methods at the global scale. These methods have never been explored together previously. In all scenarios, the exposure and hence the impact potential due to increased flooding)by sea-level rise increases significantly compared to the base year (1990). While mitigation reduces impacts, due to the lagged response of sea-level rise to atmospheric temperature rise, impacts cannot be avoided during the twenty-first century by this response alone. Cost-benefit analyses suggest that widespread protection will be an economically rational response to land loss due to sea-level rise in the four SRES futures that are considered. The most vulnerable future worlds to sea-level rise appear to be the A2 and B2 scenarios, which primarily reflects differences in the socio-economic situation (coastal population, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and GDP/capita), rather than the magnitude of sea-level rise. Small islands and deltaic settings stand out as being more vulnerable as shown in many earlier analyses. Collectively, these results suggest that human societies will have more choice in how they respond to sea-level rise than is often assumed. However, this conclusion needs to be tempered by recognition that we still do not understand these choices and significant impacts remain possible. Future worlds which experience larger rises in sea-level than considered here (above 35 cm), more extreme events, a reactive rather than proactive approach to adaptation, and where GDP growth is slower or more unequal than in the SRES futures remain a concern. There is considerable scope for further research to better understand these diverse issues. CR *IMAGE TEAM, 2001, IMAGE 2 2 IMPL SRES *NEW EC FDN GREENP, 2004, CAST ADRIFT RICH LEA *PCC CZMS, 1992, GLOB CLIM CHANG RIS *WASA GROUP, 1998, B AM METEOROL SOC, V79, P741 ARNELL NW, 2004, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V14, P3 BIJLSMA L, 1996, IMPACTS ADAPTATIONS, P289 CASTLES I, 2003, ENERGY ENV, V14, P415 CHURCH JA, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, P639 EVANS E, 2004, FORESIGHT FUTURE FLO, V2 FANKHAUSER S, 1994, ENVIRON PLANN A, V27, P299 FRENCH PW, 2001, COASTAL DEFENCES GREGORY JM, 2000, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V27, P3069 GRUBLER A, 2004, ENERGY ENV, V15, P11 HOOZEMANS FMJ, 1993, GLOBAL VULNERABILITY JOHNS TC, 2003, CLIM DYNAM, V6, P583 KLEIN RJT, 1999, AMBIO, V28, P182 KLEIN RJT, 2001, J COASTAL RES, V17, P531 LOMBORG B, 2002, SKEPTICAL ENV LOWE JA, 2001, CLIM DYNAM, V18, P179 NAKICENOVIC N, 2000, SPECIAL REPORT EMISS NICHOLLS RJ, CLIMATE IMPACT ASSES NICHOLLS RJ, 1995, GEOJOURNAL, V37, P369 NICHOLLS RJ, 1999, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V9, P69 NICHOLLS RJ, 2002, ISS ENVIR SCI TECHN, V17, P83 NICHOLLS RJ, 2004, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V14, P229 NICHOLLS RJ, 2004, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V14, P69 NICHOLLS RJ, 2005, ENCY COASTAL SCI, P486 NICHOLLS RJ, 2006, AVOIDING DANGEROUS C, P195 NURSE L, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, P843 SMALL C, 2003, J COASTAL RES, V19, P584 SMITH K, 1998, FLOODS PHYS PROCESSE SWART RJ, 2002, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V12, P155 TOL RSJ, IN PRESS J RISK ANAL TOL RSJ, J COAST RES TOL RSJ, 1995, ENVIRON RESOUR ECON, V5, P353 TOL RSJ, 2004, DOUBLE TRADEOFF ADAP TURNER RK, 1995, ENVIRON PLANN A, V27, P1777 VILES H, 1995, COASTAL PROBLEMS WIGLEY TML, 1993, CLIMATE SEA LEVEL CH, P111 WOODROFFE CD, GLOBAL CHANGE INTEGR YOHE GW, 2002, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V12, P25 ZHANG KQ, 2000, J CLIMATE, V13, P1748 NR 42 TC 0 J9 PHIL TRANS ROY SOC A-MATH PHY BP 1073 EP 1095 PY 2006 PD APR 15 VL 364 IS 1841 GA 025PJ UT ISI:000236278700020 ER PT J AU GROSSMANN, WD TI SOCIOECONOMIC ECOLOGICAL MODELS - CRITERIA FOR EVALUATION OF STATE-OF-THE-ART MODELS SHOWN ON 4 CASE-STUDIES SO ECOLOGICAL MODELLING LA English DT Article RP GROSSMANN, WD, ENVIRONM RES CTR LEIPZIG HALLE,INST APPL LANDSCAPE ECOL,PERMOSERSTR 15,D-04318 LEIPZIG,GERMANY. AB Integrated projects, for example, Global Change, Man and Biosphere or LTER (Long-Term Ecological Research), pose new challenges to construct large, integrated, socio-economic ecological models. Criteria to evaluate and judge models have been around for quite some time, such as quality of calibration, availability of documentation, successfully passed validations, etc. But now additional requirements have to be fulfilled, which are described here. One of the most essential issues may be the partial unpredictability inherent in almost all systems. Here a systematic, encompassing scheme is provided on how to deal with the unexpected. The requirements mentioned before and this scheme are used to evaluate four integrated socio-economic ecological case studies(1) which also involved model construction. The models were also used for predictions. The correctness of predictions and the causes for failures were, for several of these models, repeatedly and thoroughly evaluated. The case studies seem to be representative for the state of the art, also in their weaknesses. CR 1990, RES STRATEGIES US GL BENEDICT J, 1992, MULTIFUNCTIONAL MANA BOSSEL H, 1977, FUTURES, V10, P191 GLEICK J, 1987, CHAOS GROSSMANN WD, 1979, 2ND T INT MAB IUFRO, P166 GROSSMANN WD, 1982, C P ECOLOGICAL BASIS, P40 GROSSMANN WD, 1983, FACHBEITRAGE SCHWEIZ, V19, P25 GROSSMANN WD, 1985, MAB BERICHTSBAND, V21, P225 GROSSMANN WD, 1986, ECOLOGICAL SOCIOECON, P253 GROSSMANN WD, 1987, MAB MITTEILUNGEN, V25, P7 GROSSMANN WD, 1988, INTERDISZIPLINARER O GROSSMANN WD, 1992, IMPACTS OXIDANTS FOR GROSSMANN WD, 1992, SYST RES, V1, P3 GSCHOPF, 1992, REGIONAL MANAGEMENT HABER W, 1986, MOGLICHE AUSWIRKUNGE HAKEN H, 1978, SYNERGETICS HAKEN H, 1982, EVOLUTION ORDER CHAO HOLLING CS, 1978, ADAPTIVE ENV ASSESSM KOLB H, 1986, IMMISSIONSKLIMATOLOG KRAPFENBAUER A, 1986, ENDBERICHT FORSCHUNG, P147 LEE DB, 1973, AM J PLANNERS, V34, P163 MCDONNELL M, 1991, 1991 STAT SCOP DEF T MULLE RN, 1991, CIVILIZATION DYNAMIC, V2 MULLER N, 1989, CIVILIZATION DYNAMIC, V1 NOHL W, 1986, MAB MITTEILUNGEN, V23 ODUM HT, 1982, SYSTEMS ECOLOGY PATTEN BC, 1994, ECOL MODEL, V75, P653 SAGL W, 1986, ENDBERICHT FORSCHUNG TIMMERMAN P, 1981, ENV MONOGRAPH, V1, P1 TIMMERMAN P, 1986, SUSTAINABLE DEV BIOS, P435 VESTER F, 1980, SENSITIVITY MODEL RP WATT KEF, 1986, SYST RES, V3, P191 ZEIGLER BP, 1979, METHODOLOGY SYSTEMS NR 33 TC 6 J9 ECOL MODEL BP 21 EP 36 PY 1994 PD SEP VL 75 GA PH556 UT ISI:A1994PH55600003 ER PT J AU Allison, HE Hobbs, RJ TI Resilience, adaptive capacity, and the "Lock-in trap" of the Western Australian agricultural region SO ECOLOGY AND SOCIETY LA English DT Article C1 Murdoch Univ, Murdoch, WA 6150, Australia. RP Allison, HE, Murdoch Univ, Murdoch, WA 6150, Australia. AB Using the Western Australian (WA) agricultural region as an example of a large-scale social-ecological system (SES), this paper applies a framework based on resilience theory to examine the region's resilience and capacity for change and renewal. Despite numerous policies directed at controlling natural resource degradation in this SES, sustainable natural resource management (NRM) has not been achieved. Disparities between the scale and complexity of the problem, the design of management policies, and region's history have all contributed to policy resistance. Historically, when considered as an integrated system, changes may be described by two iterations of the adaptive cycle. These cycles are also synchronous with the third and fourth Kondratiev long-wave economic cycles. The WA agricultural region has experienced sequential periods of growth and accumulation followed by reorganization and renewal, and currently is in the backloop (reorganization to exploitation phases) of the adaptive cycle. A region's adaptive capacity is achieved by substituting direct reliance on regional factors with institutional intervention and sophisticated technology, often generated at the global scale. This substitution alters the thresholds of the commodity system and gives the perception of an adaptive system. In contrast, however, if resource depletion, environmental pollution, and population decline, also effects of the commodity system, are included within the model then the region may be considered to be in a "Lock-in" pathological trap. We propose that the dynamics of land-use change between 1900-2003 were driven by macroeconomics at the global scale, mediated by institutions at the national and state scale. Also, the SES, which is composed of relatively fast-moving variables, is largely decoupled from the slow-moving ecological variables. CR *ABARE, 2002, AGSURF FARM SURV DAT *AGR FISH FOR AUST, 2001, MARK BAS INC NAT RES *AUSTR BUR STAT, 1979, W AUSTR YB 1979 1997 *AUSTR GREENH OFF, 2000, LAND CLEAR SOC HIST *CSIRO, 2001, CLIM CHANG PROJ AUST *DEP ENV HOUS COMM, 1978, 1 DEP ENV HOUS COMM *ENV PROT AUTH, 2000, 2 EPA *GOULB BROK CATCH, 2002, IN PRESS DRAFT REG C *GOV W AUSTR, 1996, SAL SIT STAT W AUSTR *GOV W AUSTR, 2001, NAT RES MAN W AUSTR *LEG ASS W AUSTR, 1990, 2 W AUSTR PARL LEG A *NAT ACT PLAN SAL, 2002, INV NEW APPR GUID NA *NAT ACT PLAN SAL, 2002, INV NEW APPR REV NAT *NAT LAND WAT RES, 2001, AUSTR DRYL SAL AUD E *NAT LAND WAT RES, 2002, AUSTR NAT RES MAN 20 *ROYAL COMM AGR IN, 1917, PROGR REP ROYAL COMM *ROYAL COMM AGR IN, 1918, 2 ROYAL COMM AGR IND *TOOL LAK REC TEAM, 1994, UNPUB TOOL LAK REC P *WAT STUD PTY LTD, 2000, MOOR FLOOD MAN STUD ALLISON HE, 2004, UNPUB ENV MANAGEMENT BARR N, 2000, STRUCTURAL CHANGE AU BEESTON BR, 1994, 149 DEP AGR BERESFORD Q, 2001, SALINITY CRISIS LAND BERRY BJL, 1991, LONG WAVE RHYTHMS EC BOOTH M, 2000, INTERDISCIPLINARY RE BREWER GB, 1986, SUSTAINABLE DEV BIOS BURBIDGE A, 1988, 188 DEP CONS LAND MA BURKE G, 1991, THESIS MURDOCH U PER BURVILL GH, 1979, AGR W AUSTR 150 YEAR CARRY A, 1996, UNCERTAINTY EC THOUG CARY J, 2000, SOCIAL PERSPECTIVES CARY J, 2002, UNDERSTANDING LANDHO COSTANZA R, 1997, INTRO ECOLOGICAL EC DAILY GC, 2000, ENVIRON SCI POLICY, V3, P333 DALY HE, 1991, STEADY STATE EC DAVIDSON BR, 1981, EUROPEAN FARMING AUS DEGREENE KB, 1993, SYSTEMS BASES APPROA FEY WR, 2002, 20 INT C SYST DYN SO FOLKE C, 2002, NAVIGATING SOCIAL EC FROST F, 2001, P WHEATB VALL C MERR FUNTOWICZ SO, 1993, FUTURES, V25, P739 GALLOPIN GC, 2002, PANARCHY GEORGE RJ, 1996, NATURE CONSERVATION, V4 GILL R, 1996, SYST DYNAM REV, V12, P167 GUNDERSON LH, 1995, BARRIERS BRIDGES REN, V1, P1 GUNDERSON LH, 2002, PANARCHY UNDERSTANDI, V1, P1 GUNDERSON LH, 2002, RESILIENCE BEHAV LAR HAMBLIN AP, 1993, TRENDS WHEAT YIELDS HANNA SS, 1995, PROPERTY RIGHTS ENV HANSSON SO, 2003, SYNTHESE, V136, P219 HATTON TJ, 2001, WHEATB VALL FLOORS C HATTON TJ, 2003, IN PRESS PLANT SOIL HODGSON GA, 2003, UNPUB ECOLOGICAL MAN HOLLAND JH, 1992, ADAPTATION NATURAL A HOLLING CS, 1973, ANNUAL REV ECOLOGY S, V4, P1 HOLLING CS, 1978, INT SERIES APPL SYST HOLLING CS, 1995, BARRIERS BRIDGES REN HOLLING CS, 2000, RESILIENCE ECOSYSTEM HOLLING CS, 2002, PANARCHY JANSSEN W, 1996, AGR SYST, V51, P259 LAMBIN EF, 2001, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V11, P261 LEE KN, 1993, COMPASS GYROSCOPE IN LUDWIG D, 1993, SCIENCE, V260, P17 LYONS TJ, 2002, METEOROL ATMOS PHYS, V80, P131 MCFARLANE DJ, 1993, REINTEGRATING FRAGME MEADOWS D, 1970, DYNAMICS COMMODITY P MEADOWS DH, 1982, UNPUB SUSTAINING TRO MEADOWS DH, 1985, ELECT ORACLE COMPUTE ONEILL NR, 1998, RRD PLANT PATHOL, V2, P1 PASSIOURA JB, 1999, AGROFOREST SYST, V45, P411 PASSIOURA JB, 2002, FUNCT PLANT BIOL, V29, P537 REPETTO RC, 1988, PUBLIC POLICIES MISU RICHARDSON GP, 1991, FEEDBACK THOUGHT SOC ROYCE WF, 1987, FISHERY DEV SALA M, 1998, LAND DEGRADATION MED SAUNDERS DA, 2003, BIOL CONSERV, V110, P245 SAWIN B, 2003, COMMODITY SYSTEM CHA SCHUMPETER JA, 1950, CAPITALISM SOCIALISM STERMAN JD, 2001, CALIF MANAGE REV, V43, P8 TAINTER JA, 1988, COLLAPSE COMPLEX SOC THIRGOOD JV, 1981, MAN MEDITERRANEAN FO TOYNE P, 2000, DECADE LANDCARE LOOK WALDROP MM, 1992, COMPLEXITY EMERGING WALKER BH, 2002, CONSERV ECOL, V6, P1 WALLACE KJ, 2003, ECOLOGICAL MANAGEMEN, V4, P23 WALTERS CJ, 1986, ADAPTIVE MANAGEMENT WESTLEY F, 2002, PANARCHY YOUNG MD, 1995, PROPERTY RIGHTS ENV NR 88 TC 0 J9 ECOL SOC BP 3 PY 2004 PD JUN VL 9 IS 1 GA 911SN UT ISI:000228025100016 ER PT J AU Macey, DAJ TI Reflections on peasant adaptation in rural Russia at the beginning of the twentieth century: The Stolypin agrarian reforms SO JOURNAL OF PEASANT STUDIES LA English DT Article C1 Middlebury Coll, Middlebury, VT 05753 USA. RP Macey, DAJ, Middlebury Coll, Middlebury, VT 05753 USA. AB The Stolypin reforms in Russia at the beginning of the twentieth century are usually understood as a revolutionary attempt to destroy the peasantry and peasant culture through legal coercion; in fact, they were a more moderate attempt to encourage change through voluntary procedures. In terms of both the numbers of peasants embracing them and their social impact, the reforms were also more successful than has traditionally been acknowledged. A key reason for their success was the synergistic relationship between the reform process and the deepening marketization of rural and urban economic environments in conjunction with the peasants' increasing willingness to adapt to and take advantage of the new opportunities these processes created. The reforms' positive outcomes contrast sharply with the results of current reforms in Russia and highlight the critical role of market supporting institutions in creating a supportive environment. NR 0 TC 0 J9 J PEASANT STUD BP 400 EP 426 PY 2004 PD APR-JUL VL 31 IS 3-4 GA 871GW UT ISI:000225119000002 ER PT J AU Yohe, GW Schlesinger, M TI The economic geography of the impacts of climate change SO JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC GEOGRAPHY LA English DT Article C1 Wesleyan Univ, Middletown, CT 06459 USA. Univ Illinois, Dept Atmospher Sci, MC 223, Urbana, IL 61801 USA. RP Yohe, GW, Wesleyan Univ, 238 Church St, Middletown, CT 06459 USA. AB Our ability to understand the geographical dispersion of the impacts of climate change has not et progressed to the point of being able to quantify costs and benefits distributed across globe along one or more climate scenarios in any meaningful way. We respond to this chaotic state of affairs by offering a brief introduction to the potential impacts of a changing climate along five geographically dispersed portraits of how the future climate might evolve and by presenting a modern approach to contemplating vulnerability to climate impacts that has been designed explicitly to reflect geographic diversity and uncertainty Three case studies are offered to provide direct evidence of the potential value of adaptation in reducing the cost of climate impacts, the versatility of thinking about the determinants of adaptive capacity for specific regions or sectors, and the feasibility of exploring both across a wide range of 'not-implausible' climate and socio-economic scenarios. Three overarching themes emerge: adaptation matters, geographic diversity is critical, and enormous uncertainty must be recognized and accommodated. CR *INT PAN CLIM CHAN, 1990, 1990 CLIM CHANG IPCC *IPCC, 1992, 1992 CLIM CHANG SUPP WATSON RT, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, V1, P1 *IPCC, 1996, 1995 SCI CLIM CHANG *IPCC, 1996, CLIM CHANG 1995 EC S *IPCC, 2000, 2000 SPEC REP EM SCE MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 *IPCC, 2001, 2000 MIT CONTR WORK *IPCC, 2001, 2000 SCI CLIM CHANG ALCAMO J, 1998, GLOBAL CHANGE SCENAR ALFSEN KH, 1999, 1 CICERO DOWLATABADI H, 2000, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V10, P214 DOWNING TE, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE WORLD DOWNING TE, 1997, MITIGATION ADAPTATIO, V2, P19 GRITSEVSKII A, 1998, SCEBARUI GEBERATOR T HEWITT J, 1971, HAZARDOUSNESS PLACE JOOS F, 1996, TELLUS B, V48, P397 KANE SM, 1992, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V21, P17 KARL TR, 1998, B AM METEOROL SOC, V79, P231 MEARNS LO, 1997, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V35, P367 MENDELSOHN R, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P553 MORITA T, 1998, QUANTIFICATION IPCC MYHRE G, 1998, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V25, P2715 NORDHAUS WD, 2000, WARMING WORLD EC MOD PEPPER W, 1998, ENV SCI POLICY, V1, P289 PITTOCK AB, 2000, ENVIRON MONIT ASSESS, V61, P9 SCHLESINGER ME, 1998, COSMIC COUNTRY SPECI SCHLESINGER ME, 2000, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V65, P167 SCHNEIDER S, 1989, MANAGING PLANT READI, P25 SMIT B, 1999, MITIGATION ADAPTATIO, V4, P119 SMITHERS J, 1997, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V7, P129 STRZEPEK K, 2001, IN PRESS INTEGRATED TOL RSJ, 1999, I ENV STUDIES TOL RSJ, 2001, FLOODS FLOOD MANAGEM WEST JJ, 1999, CLIMATE CHANGE RISK, P205 YATES D, 1998, J HYDROL ENG, V3, P98 YOHE GW, 1989, OCEAN SHORELINE MANA, V15, P233 YOHE GW, 1996, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V32, P387 YOHE GW, 1999, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V9, P233 YOHE GW, 2002, IN PRESS GLOBAL ENV YOHE GW, 2002, P PIK WORKSH ENH CAP YOHE GW, 1998, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V38, P447 NR 42 TC 0 J9 J ECON GEOGR BP 311 EP 341 PY 2002 PD JUL 1 VL 2 IS 3 GA 645BL UT ISI:000180956300003 ER PT J AU Umezaki, M Kuchikura, Y Yamauchi, T Ohtsuka, R TI Impact of population pressure on food production: An analysis of land use change and subsistence pattern in the Tari basin in Papua New Guinea Highlands SO HUMAN ECOLOGY LA English DT Article C1 Univ Tokyo, Grad Sch Med, Sch Int Hlth, Dept Human Ecol,Bunkyo Ku, Tokyo 1130033, Japan. Gifu Univ, Fac Reg Studies, Dept Anthropol, Gifu 5011193, Japan. RP Umezaki, M, Univ Tokyo, Grad Sch Med, Sch Int Hlth, Dept Human Ecol,Bunkyo Ku, 7-3-1 Hongo, Tokyo 1130033, Japan. AB The impact of increase in population on, land use and subsistence pattern was examined in two environmentally contrasting Huli-speaking communities, Hell and Wenani, in the Tari basin in Papua New Guinea Highlands. Despite the similar extent of population increase in both communities, the damage to land differed markedly. In Hell, a decrease in land productivity owing to excessive agricultural use has induced farmers to shorten the fallow duration, which in rum has led to further land degradation and difficulties in increasing food production. In contrast, Wenani villagers have coped with the population increase by enlarging areas for cultivation and possibly will be able to double their present production level, although increasingly frequent disputes over land rights have restricted peoples' access to fertile areas. During a period of climatic perturbations in 1994, land and labor productivities of crops were three rimes higher in Wenani than in Hell, which suffered a severe food shortage. This difference in ability to cope with climatic perturbations may have increased with population growth. The findings in the present study suggest that the effects of population pressure on food production may differ between communities, depending on the indigenous environment and subsistence pattern. CR *NAT STAT OFF, 1983, PROVINCIAL DATA SYST ALLEN BJ, 1995, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V5, P297 ALLEN BJ, 1995, PAPUAN BORDERLANDS H, P141 BLAXTER K, 1987, LANCET, V1, P309 BONGAARTS J, 1996, POPUL DEV REV, V22, P483 BOSERUP E, 1965, CONDITIONS AGR GROWT BOURKE RM, 1985, PAPUA NEW GUINEA J A, V33, P89 BOWERS N, 1968, THESIS COLUMBIA U NE BROOKFIELD H, 1972, PAC VIEWPOINT, V13, P40 BROOKFIELD H, 1995, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V5, P381 CLARK J, 1990, 61 NRI CLARKE WC, 1971, PLACE PEOPLE ECOLOGY CRITTENDEN R, 1990, AGR SYST, V34, P151 DSOUZA E, 1986, PAPUA NEW GUINEA J A, V34, P41 ELLEN R, 1982, ENV SUBSISTENCE SYST ESTREGUIL C, 1996, J BIOGEOGR, V23, P757 FEIL DK, 1987, EVOLUTION HIGHLAND P FLOYD CN, 1988, FIELD CROP RES, V19, P1 GLASSE RM, 1968, HULI PAPUA COGNATIC HARRIS GT, 1978, OCEANIA, V48, P284 KAWABE T, 1995, ANTHROPOL SCI, V103, P188 KUCHIKURA Y, 1994, B FACULTY GEN ED GIF, V30, P41 KUCHIKURA Y, 1999, MAN CULTURE OCEANIA, V15, P65 KUMAGAI K, 1987, MAN CULTURE OCEANIA, V3, P221 LEE RE, 1988, POPULATION FOOD RURA LEHMANN D, 1997, DEMOGRAPHIC SURVEILL MELLOR JW, 1987, SCIENCE, V235, P539 MODJESKA N, 1982, INEQUALITY NEW GUINE MORAN E, 1990, ECOSYSTEM APPROACH A OHTSUKA R, 1995, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V5, P347 OHTSUKA R, 1998, 27 UNESCO PARFITT RL, 1976, HARVEST, V3, P63 POWELL J, 1982, DEP GEOGRAPHY OCCASI, V1 RAPPAPORT RA, 1967, PIGS ANCESTORS RITUA, V1, P1 ROSE CJ, 1979, PAPUA NEW GUINEA AGR, V30, P61 SILLITOE P, 1983, ROOTS EARTH CROPS HI SILLITOE P, 1993, J ANTHROPOL RES, V49, P237 SMITH JMB, 1985, MOUNTAIN RES DEV, V5, P329 STRATHERN A, 1982, INEQUALITY NEW GUINE STRATHERN AJ, 1982, AM ETHNOL, V9, P307 SUDA K, 1994, ANTHROPOL SCI, V120, P13 UITTO JI, 1995, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V5, P267 UMEZAKI M, 1999, ECOL FOOD NUTR, V37, P409 UMEZAKI M, 2000, UNPUB PROTEIN CONTEN VAIL J, 1995, PAPUAN BORDERLANDS H, P343 VASEY D, 1993, TIME PLANT TIME UPRO VAYDA AP, 1971, OCEANIA, V42, P1 VAYDA AP, 1975, ANNU REV ANTHROPOL, V4, P293 WADDELL E, 1972, MOUND BUILDERS AGR P WOHLT PB, 1978, THESIS U MINNESOTA M WOOD AW, 1985, DEP GEOGRAPHY OCCASI, V5 WOOD AW, 1987, MOUNTAIN RES DEV, V7, P145 NR 52 TC 5 J9 HUM ECOL BP 359 EP 381 PY 2000 PD SEP VL 28 IS 3 GA 355MR UT ISI:000089389900002 ER PT J AU Darwin, RF TI A farmer's view of the Ricardian approach to measuring agricultural effects of climatic change SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 ERS, USDA, Serv Econ Res, Washington, DC 20005 USA. RP Darwin, RF, ERS, USDA, Serv Econ Res, 1800 M St NW,Room 4180, Washington, DC 20005 USA. AB During the past few years two new methods, each based on the analogous region concept, have been developed to account for farmer adaptation in response to global climatic change. The first, called `Ricardian' by Mendelsohn, Nordhaus, and Shaw (1994), econometrically estimates the impact of climatic and other variables on the value of farm real estate. Under some conditions, estimates of climate-induced changes in farm real estate capture first-round adaptations by farmers and represent the economic value of climatic change on agriculture. The second method, promulgated by Darwin et al. (1994) in the Future Agricultural Resources Model (FARM), uses a geographic information system to empirically link climatically derived land classes with other inputs and agricultural outputs in an economic model of the world. FARM provides estimates of economic impacts that fully account for all responses by economic agents under global climate change as well as estimates of Ricardian rents. The primary objective of this analysis is to evaluate how well changes in Ricardian rents measure agricultural or other effects of climatic change after all economic agents around the world have responded. Results indicate that changes in Ricardian rents on agricultural land are poor quantitative, but good qualitative, measures of how global climatic change is likely to affect the welfare of agricultural landowners, if one recognizes that increases in Ricardian rents actually indicate losses in landowner welfare and vice versa. Results also indicate that regional changes in Ricardian rents on all land are good qualitative measures of changes in regional welfare. They are poor quantitative welfare measures because they systematically overestimate both benefits and losses and are on average upwardly biased because inflated benefits are larger than exaggerated losses. Results also indicate that, when based on existing land-use patterns, changes in Ricardian rents on all the world's land are poor quantitative and qualitative measures of changes in world welfare. Despite these shortcomings, changes in Ricardian rents can provide useful information when other measures are not available. In this analysis, for example, estimated changes in Ricardian rents on all land indicate that climatic change would likely have detrimental effects in Latin America and Africa, beneficial effects in the former Soviet Union, and either detrimental or beneficial impacts in eastern and northern Europe and western and southern Asia. This is consistent with previous studies showing that climatic change would likely have detrimental, beneficial, and mixed effects on economic welfare in, respectively, equatorial, high latitude, and temperate areas. Estimated changes in Ricardian rents also indicate that aggregating Africa, Latin America, the former Soviet Union, eastern and northern Europe, and western and southern Asia into one region causes FARM's economic model to generate upwardly biased changes in world welfare. Modified results from scenarios with moderately flexible land-use change and which account for current land-use patterns indicate that world welfare may increase if the average surface land temperature does not increase by more than 1.0 or 2.0 degrees C. If the average surface land temperature increases by 3.0 degrees C or more, however, then world welfare may decline. 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AB Four accelerated sea level rise scenarios, 30 and 100 cm by the year 2100, and 10 and 30 cm by the year 2030, have been assumed as boundary conditions (along with some wind climate changes) for the entire Polish coast, under two recent programmes completed in 1992 and 1995, Three adaptation strategies, i.e., retreat, limited protection and full protection have been adopted and compared in physical and socio-economic terms. Over 2,200 km(2) and 230,000 people are found vulnerable in the most severe case of 100-cm rise by 2100. The total cost of land at loss in that case is estimated at nearly 30 USD billion (plus some 18 USD billion at risk of flooding), while the cost of full protection reaches 6 USD billion. Particular features of vulnerability and adaptation schemes have been examined as well, including specific sites and the effects of not only sea level rise but also other climate change factors, and interactions with other climate change studies in Poland. Planning of coastal zone management facing climate change can be facilitated by the use of a GIS-supported coastal information and analysis system. An example of the application of such a system for a selected Polish coastal site is shown to illustrate the most recent smaller-scale research activities undertaken in the wake of the overall assessment of the vulnerability to climate change for the entire Polish coastal zone. CR TITUS J, 1992, RISING CHALLENGE SEA WROBLEWSKI A, 1993, OCEANOLOGIA, V33, P45 WROBLEWSKI A, 1993, THEORETICAL ASSUMPTI ZEIDLER R, 1994, P S MAR ENG ENV PROT, P131 ZEIDLER RB, 1990, HYDROT T, V53, P135 ZEIDLER RB, 1992, ASSESSMENT VULNERABI, P135 ZEIDLER RB, 1995, IN PRESS USCSP NOTES ZEIDLER RB, 1995, J COASTAL RES, V22, P33 ZEIDLER RB, 1995, J COASTAL RES, V22, P99 ZEIDLER RB, 1995, P 24 INT C COAST ENG, P3462 NR 10 TC 6 J9 CLIMATIC CHANGE BP 151 EP 173 PY 1997 PD MAY-JUN VL 36 IS 1-2 GA XH635 UT ISI:A1997XH63500011 ER PT J AU Wiener, JB TI Something borrowed for something blue: Legal transplants and the evolution of global environmental law SO ECOLOGY LAW QUARTERLY LA English DT Article C1 Duke Univ, Nicholas Sch Environm, Durham, NC 27706 USA. RP Wiener, JB, Duke Univ, Nicholas Sch Environm, Durham, NC 27706 USA. AB This Article addresses the evolution of legal rules to govern the global environment. It traces the "borrowing" of legal ideas from national law into international law, in particular the borrowing of emissions trading and the comprehensive approach into the Rio and Kyoto climate change treaties. The Article argues that such "vertical legal borrowing" is related to, yet importantly different from, the pervasive "horizontal legal borrowing" across national legal systems that has been much studied by comparative law scholars. The Article develops both positive and normative assessments of vertical legal borrowing, arguing that it is often suppressed but increasingly essential to the success of global environmental law. Yet vertical legal borrowing must be undertaken with care, adapting the borrowed national law concept to the very different institutional framework of international law. The Article suggests that the major flaw in the Kyoto Protocol-the omission of developing countries-derives from an attempt at vertical legal borrowing without such adaptation. More generally, the Article suggests that whether legal rules evolve towards efficiency depends on the institutions of lawmaking and legal education. 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ISI:000168506300016 ER PT J AU Oppenheimer, M TI Defining dangerous anthropogenic interference: The role of science, the limits of science SO RISK ANALYSIS LA English DT Article C1 Princeton Univ, Woodrow Wilson Sch, Princeton, NJ 08544 USA. Princeton Univ, Dept Geosci, Princeton, NJ 08544 USA. RP Oppenheimer, M, Princeton Univ, Woodrow Wilson Sch, Robertson Hall 448, Princeton, NJ 08544 USA. AB Defining "dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system" in the context of Article 2 of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) presents a complex challenge for those developing long-term climate policy. Natural science has a key role to play in quantifying vulnerabilities of elements of the Earth system and estimating the risks from a changing climate. But attempts to interpret Article 2 will inevitably draw on understanding from social science, psychology, law, and ethics. Here I consider the limits of science in defining climate "danger" by focusing on the potential disintegration of the major ice sheets as an example of an extreme impact. I show that considerations of timescale, uncertainty, and learning preclude a definition of danger drawn purely from natural science. Decisionmakers will be particularly challenged by one characteristic of global problems: answers to some scientific questions become less accurate over decadal timescales, meandering toward the wrong answer, a feature I call negative learning. I argue for a precautionary approach to Article 2 that would be based initially on current, limited scientific understanding of the future of the ice sheets. 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Univ Sussex, SPRU, Sci & Technol Policy Res, Brighton BN1 9RH, E Sussex, England. Univ London Imperial Coll Sci Technol & Med, Inovat Studies Ctr, Tanaka Business Sch, London SW7 2AZ, England. RP Berkhout, F, Vrije Univ Amsterdam, Inst Environm Studies, Fac Earth & Life Sci, De Boelelaan 1085, NL-1081 HV Amsterdam, Netherlands. AB Analysis of human adaptation to climate change should be based on realistic models of adaptive behaviour at the level of organisations and individuals. The paper sets out a framework for analysing adaptation to the direct and indirect impacts of climate change in business organisations with new evidence presented from empirical research into adaptation in nine case-study companies. It argues that adaptation to climate change has many similarities with processes of organisational learning. The paper suggests that business organisations face a number of obstacles in learning how to adapt to climate change impacts, especially in relation to the weakness and ambiguity of signals about climate change and the uncertainty about benefits flowing from adaptation measures. Organisations rarely adapt 'autonomously', since their adaptive behaviour is influenced by policy and market conditions, and draws on resources external to the organisation. The paper identifies four adaptation strategies that pattern organisational adaptive behaviour. CR *ENV AG, 2001, WAT RES FUT STRAT EN *ENV AG, 2003, WAT RES PLANN GUID S *IPPC, 2001, CLIM CHANG 2001 SCI *UK WAT IND RES, 2002, C609 UKWIR ADGER WN, 2001, LIVING ENV CHANGE SO ALDRICH H, 1986, RES ORGAN BEHAV, V8, P165 ARNELL NW, 2003, ADAPTING CLIMATE CHA ARNELL NW, 2003, HYDROL EARTH SYST SC, V7, P619 BENNER MJ, 2003, ACAD MANAGE REV, V28, P238 BURTON I, 1997, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V36, P185 CHAKRAVARTHY BS, 1982, ACAD MANAGE REV, V7, P35 COLLIS DJ, 1994, STRATEGIC MANAGE J, V15, P143 CYERT RM, 1963, BEHAV THEORY FIRM DAFT RL, 1984, ACAD MANAGE REV, V9, P2 DOWNING TE, 1996, 12IVM ECU EASTERLING WE, 1993, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V24, P23 EISENHARDT KM, 1989, ACAD MANAGE REV, V14, P532 FOLKE C, 2002, RESILIENCE SUSTAINAB GAVETTI G, 2000, ADMIN SCI QUART, V45, P113 GLANTZ MH, 1988, SOC RESPONSES CLIMAT GRAVES HM, 2000, POTENTIAL IMPLICATIO HERRINGTON P, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE DEMAN HERTIN J, 2002, BUSINESS CLIMATE CHA HULME M, 2002, CLIMATE CHANGE SCENA KASPERSON JX, 1995, REGIONS RISK, V1, P1 KELLY PM, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V47, P325 LEVITT B, 1988, ANNU REV SOCIOL, V14, P319 LIPPMAN SA, 1982, BELL J ECON, V13, P418 MARCH JG, 1991, ORGAN SCI, V2, P71 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 MENDELSOHN R, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P583 NELSON R, 1982, EVOLUTIONARY THEORY NONAKA I, 1994, ORGAN SCI, V5, P14 PARSON EA, 2003, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V57, P9 REILLY JM, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P253 SCHNEIDER SH, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P203 SMITH B, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P223 STABER U, 2002, J MANAGE INQUIRY, V11, P408 STEINBRUNNER J, 1974, CYBERNETIC THEORY DE TEECE DJ, 1997, STRATEGIC MANAGE J, V18, P509 TOL RSJ, 1998, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V8, P109 YOHE GW, 1996, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V32, P387 ZOLLO M, 2002, ORGAN SCI, V13, P339 NR 43 TC 1 J9 CLIMATIC CHANGE BP 135 EP 156 PY 2006 PD SEP VL 78 IS 1 GA 083UY UT ISI:000240484900006 ER PT J AU Berkes, F Jolly, D TI Adapting to climate change: Social-ecological resilience in a Canadian Western Arctic community SO CONSERVATION ECOLOGY LA English DT Article C1 Univ Manitoba, Inst Nat Resources, Winnipeg, MB R3T 2N2, Canada. RP Berkes, F, Univ Manitoba, Inst Nat Resources, Winnipeg, MB R3T 2N2, Canada. AB Human adaptation remains an insufficiently studied part of the subject of climate change. This paper examines the questions of adaptation and change in terms of social-ecological resilience using lessons from a place-specific case study. The Inuvialuit people of the small community of Sachs Harbour in Canada's western Arctic have been tracking climate change throughout the 1990s. We analyze the adaptive capacity of this community to deal with climate change. Short-term responses to changes in land-based activities, which are identified as coping mechanisms, are one component of this adaptive capacity. The second component is related to cultural and ecological adaptations of the Inuvialuit for life in a highly variable and uncertain environment; these represent long-term adaptive strategies. These two types of strategies are, in fact, on a continuum in space and time. This study suggests new ways in which theory and practice can be combined by showing how societies may adapt to climate change at multiple scales. Switching species and adjusting the "where, when, and how" of hunting are examples of shorter-term responses. On the other hand, adaptations such as flexibility in seasonal hunting patterns, traditional knowledge that allows the community to diversity hunting activities, networks for sharing food and other resources, and intercommunity trade are longer-term, culturally ingrained mechanisms. Individuals, households, and the community as a whole also provide feedback on their responses to change. Newly developing co-management institutions create additional linkages for feedback across different levels, enhancing the capacity for learning and self-organization of the local inhabitants and making it possible for them to transmit community concerns to regional, national, and international levels. CR 2000, FRIIB WORKSH SUST SC *FISH JOINT MAN CO, 1999, BEAUF SEA 2000 REN R *RES ALL, 2001, RES ALL PROGR DESCR ADGER WN, 2000, PROG HUM GEOG, V24, P347 ADGER WN, 2001, LIVING ENV CHANGE SO BABALUK JA, 2000, ARCTIC, V53, P161 BALIKEI A, 1968, MAN HUNTER, P72 BERKES F, 1996, ACHIEVING SUSTAINABL, P204 BERKES F, 1998, LINKING SOCIAL ECOLO, V1, P1 BERKES F, 2001, OCEAN COAST MANAGE, V44, P451 COLLINGS P, 1997, CONTESTED ARCTIC IND, P13 DAVIS GB, 1993, DATA BASE, V24, P4 FAST H, 1998, CANADA COUNTRY STUDY, V8, P206 FAST H, 2000, OCEAN COAST MANAGE, V34, P183 FORD N, 1999, J DEV COMMUNICATION, V1, P93 FREEMAN MMR, 1967, ARCTIC, V20, P154 FREEMAN MMR, 1996, HUMAN ECOLOGY HLTH A, P57 GUNDERSON LH, 1995, BARRIERS BRIDGES REN, V1, P1 GUNDERSON LH, 2002, PANARCHY UNDERSTANDI, V1, P1 GUNN A, 1991, ARCTIC, V44, P188 HOLLING CS, 1973, ANNUAL REV ECOLOGY S, V4, P1 HOLLING CS, 1997, CONSERV ECOL, V1, P1 INGOLD T, 2000, BODY SOC, V6, P183 KELLY PM, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V47, P325 KRUPNIK I, 1993, ARCTIC ADAPTATIONS N LANGDON SJ, 1995, HUMAN ECOLOGY CLIMAT, P139 LEVIN SA, 1999, FRAGILE DOMINION COM MAXWELL B, 1997, CANADA COUNTRY STUDY, V2 MCCAY BJ, 1978, HUM ECOL, V6, P397 MCINTOSH RJ, 2000, WAY WIND BLOWS CLIMA MINC LD, 1986, J ANTHROPOL ARCHAEOL, V5, P39 NAGY JA, 2001, COMANAGEMENT PLAN CA OHMAGARI K, 1997, HUM ECOL, V25, P197 RIEDLINGER D, 1999, ARCTIC, V52, P430 RIEDLINGER D, 2001, POLAR REC, V37, P315 SABO G, 1991, LONG TERM ADPTATIONS SINGH N, 1994, ADAPTIVE STRATEGIES SMITHERS J, 1997, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V7, P129 USHER PJ, 1970, BANKSLANDERS EC ECOL WATSON RT, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, V1, P1 WILBANKS TJ, 1999, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V43, P601 NR 41 TC 0 J9 CONSERV ECOL BP 1 PY 2002 PD JAN VL 5 IS 2 GA 521NX UT ISI:000173848000026 ER PT J AU Negri, DH Gollehon, NR Aillery, MP TI The effects of climatic variability on US irrigation adoption SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 Willamette Univ, Dept Econ, Salem, OR 97301 USA. USDA, Econ Res Serv, Washington, DC 20036 USA. RP Negri, DH, Willamette Univ, Dept Econ, 900 State St, Salem, OR 97301 USA. AB This paper contributes to the literature underscoring the importance of climatic variance by developing a framework for incorporating the means and tails of the distributions of rainfall and temperature into empirical models of agricultural production. The methodology is applied to estimate the impact of climate change on the discrete choice decision to adopt irrigation since it is an important adaptation to climate change. We develop a discrete choice model for the decision to install irrigation capacity that captures the effects of both climate means and extremes. Climatic means and frequencies of climatic events in the upper tails of the temperature and precipitation distributions are used to estimate the parameters of a normal distribution for temperature and a Weibull distribution for precipitation. Using estimates from a probit model, we examine the independent effects of changing climatic mean and variance on the probability of adopting irrigation. Increasing the mean temperature, holding variance constant, shifts the entire distribution toward warmer temperatures-increasing the frequency of extreme temperatures. For precipitation, the specification captures the separate effects of mean rainfall, frequency of rainfall, and frequency of extreme events. The results show that the tails of the temperature and precipitation distributions, not the means, are the dominant climatic determinants in irrigation adoption. The results also show that water availability, soil characteristics, farm size and operator demographics are important determinants of irrigation. CR *BUR CENS, 1996, AC92RS1 US DEP COMM *EC RES SERV, 1996, ERSS NEW ARMS SURV *EC RES SERV, 2003, AH722 USDA EC RES SE *NAT AGR STAT SERV, 1997, AGR STAT 1997 *NAT AGR STAT SERV, 1998, AGR STAT 1998 *NAT AGR STAT SERV, 1998, PR13 USDA NAT AGR ST *NAT AGR STAT SERV, 1999, 1997 CENS AGR, V1 *NAT CLIM DAT CTR, 1997, DAT DOC TY 3220 DAT *NAT RES CONS SERV, 1995, MISC PUBL USDA, V1492 *NAT RES CONS SERV, 1999, 1997 NAT RES INV ALI A, 1998, J GEOGR INFORM DECIS, V2, P34 CHAMBERS RG, 1989, AM J AGR ECON, V71, P980 DALTON MG, 1997, J ENVIRON ECON MANAG, V33, P221 DIXON BL, 1999, J AGR APPL EC, V31, P537 DUAN J, 1988, J AM WATER RESOUR AS, V34, P617 FEATHER P, 1999, EC VALUATION ENV BEN GREENE W, 1998, LIMDEP VERSION 7 0 U KAISER HM, 1995, AM J AGR ECON, V77, P734 KANAZAWA M, 1993, J LAW ECON, V36, P205 KATZ RW, 1992, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V21, P289 LEWANDROWSKI JK, 1999, LAND ECON, V75, P39 LONG SJ, 1998, REGRESSION MODELS CA MEARNS LO, 1996, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V32, P257 MENDELSOHN R, 1994, AM ECON REV, V84, P753 MENDELSOHN R, 1999, IMPACT CLIMATE CHANG MOORE MR, 1995, LAND ECON, V71, P445 NEGRI DH, 1990, W J AGR EC, V15, P213 ROSENZWEIG C, 2000, CLIMATE CHANGE US AG RUNGE ECA, 1968, AGRON J, V60, P503 SCHIMMELPFENNIG D, 1996, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V33, P213 SHUMWAY CR, 1984, AM J AGR ECON, V66, P72 SOLLEY WB, 1998, 1200 US GEOL SURV US WHITFIELD D, 1999, ED SOCIAL JUSTICE, V1, P1 NR 33 TC 1 J9 CLIMATIC CHANGE BP 299 EP 323 PY 2005 PD APR VL 69 IS 2-3 GA 923AW UT ISI:000228882000006 ER PT J AU Heistermann, M Muller, C Ronneberger, K TI Land insight? Achievements, deficits and potentials of continental to global scale land-use modeling SO AGRICULTURE ECOSYSTEMS & ENVIRONMENT LA English DT Review C1 Univ Kassel, Ctr Environm Syst Res, D-3500 Kassel, Germany. Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res PIK, D-14473 Potsdam, Germany. Univ Hamburg, Res Unit Sustainabil & Global Change, Hamburg, Germany. Ctr Marine & Atmospher Sci, Hamburg, Germany. RP Muller, C, Univ Kassel, Ctr Environm Syst Res, D-3500 Kassel, Germany. AB Land use plays a vital role in the earth system: it links human decision-making to the terrestrial environment and is both driver and target of global environmental changes. However, decisions about how much land to use where and for what purpose (and the related consequences) are still poorly understood. This deficit is in contrast to the fundamental need for global analysis of future land-use change to answer pressing questions concerning, e.g. future food security, biodiversity and climate mitigation and adaptation. In this review, we identify major achievements, deficits and potentials of existing continental to global scale land-use modeling approaches by contrasting current knowledge on land-use change processes and its implementation in models. To compare the 18 selected modeling approaches and their applications, we use the integration of geographic and economic modeling approaches as a guiding principle. Geographic models focus on the development of spatial patterns of land-use types by analyzing land suitability and spatial interaction. Beyond, they add information about fundamental constraints on the supply side. Economic models focus on drivers of land-use change on the demand side, starting out from certain preferences, motivations, market and population structures and aim to explain changes in land-intensive sectors. Integrated models seek to combine the strengths of both approaches in order to make up for their intrinsic deficits and to assess the feedbacks between terrestrial environment and the global economy. Important aspects in continental to global modeling of land use are being addressed by the reviewed models, but up to now for some of these issues no satisfying solutions have been found: this applies, e.g. to soil degradation, the availability of freshwater resources and the interactions between land scarcity and intensification of land use. For a new generation of large-scale land-use models, a transparent structure would be desirable which clearly employs the advantages of both geographic and economic modeling concepts within one consistent framework to include feedbacks and avoid redundancies. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. CR *ACC, 2004, FIN ACCELERATES PROJ *FAO UNEP, 1999, TERM INT RES PLANN M *FAO, 1978, REP AGR EC ZON PROJ, V1 *FAO, 1997, IRR POT AFR BAS APPR *FAO, 2003, STAT WORLDS FOR *FAO, 2005, WAICENT PORT *GTAP, 2005, INT DAT BAS ASS POT *IPCC, 2001, CLIM CHANG 2001 SCI *OECD, 2003, PEM TECHN DOC DRAFT *RIVM, 2001, IMAGE 22 MOD DOC NAT ADAMS D, 2005, FASOMGHG CONCEPTUAL AGARWAL C, 2002, NE297 USDA FOR SERV ALCAMO J, IN PRESS LAND USE LA ALCAMO J, 1994, WATER AIR SOIL POLL, V76, P1 ALCAMO J, 1998, GLOBAL CHANGE SCENAR ALIG RJ, 2003, FOREST ECOL MANAG, V169, P3 ANGELSEN A, 1999, WORLD BANK RES OBSER, V14, P73 ANNETTS JE, 2002, J OPER RES SOC, V53, P933 BABIKER MH, 2001, MIT EMISSIONS PREDIC, V71 BALKHAUSEN O, 2004, 3 IDEMA U GOETT I AG BATISTELLA M, 2001, THESIS U INDIANA SCH BRIASSOULIS H, 2000, ANAL LAND USE CHANGE BROVKIN V, 1999, GLOBAL ECOL BIOGEOGR, V8, P509 BURNIAUX JM, 2002, INCORPORATING CARBON BURNIAUX JM, 2003, MODELLING LAND USE C CAMPBELL BD, 2000, AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON, V82, P39 CASSELGINTZ M, 2000, J ENVIRON MANAGE, V59, P279 CASSELGINTZ MA, 1997, CLIMATE RES, V8, P135 CLARK D, 1998, GEOGR J 1, V164, P85 DARWIN RF, 1995, 703 USDA NAT RES ENV DARWIN RF, 1996, ECOL ECON, V17, P157 DELGADO CL, 2003, J NUTR S2, V133, S3907 DIXON J, 2001, FARMING SYSTEMS POVE DOBSON JE, 2000, PHOTOGRAMM ENG REM S, V66, P849 DOLMAN A, 2003, GLOBAL ENV CHANGE LA DORE MHI, 1997, CAN J DEV STUD, V18, P419 DUXBURY JM, 1993, AGR ECOSYSTEM EFFECT, P1 FISCHER G, 2001, AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON, V85, P163 FISCHER G, 2002, GLOBAL AGR ECOLOGICA FUJITA M, 1999, SPATIAL EC CITIES RE GEIST HJ, 2001, LUCC REPORT SERIES, V4 GEIST HJ, 2002, BIOSCIENCE, V52, P143 GEIST HJ, 2004, BIOSCIENCE, V54, P817 GINSBURGH V, 1997, STRUCTURE APPL GEN E GOLDEWIJK KK, 2001, CYCLES, V15, P417 GREENHUT ML, 1995, LOCATION THEORY EC L GREENHUT ML, 1995, SPACE VALUE EC LOCAT GREENHUT ML, 1995, SPATIAL MICROECONOMI GRUBLER A, 1994, CHANGES LAND USE LAN, P287 HERTEL TW, 1997, GLOBAL TRADE ANAL HERTEL TW, 1999, 992 PURD U DEP 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1994, CHANGES LAND USE LAN MULLER, 2004, FVI6E GTZ OGA K, 1996, INT FOOD POLICY AGR, V1 OGALLO LA, 2000, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V103, P159 OLDEMAN LR, 1990, WORLD MAP STATUS HUM PARSON EA, 1997, ANNU REV ENERG ENV, V22, P589 PEREZGARCIA J, 2002, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V54, P439 PERZ SG, 2003, SOC NATUR RESOUR, V16, P277 PETSCHELHELD G, 1999, ENVIRON MODEL ASSESS, V4, P295 PFAFF ASP, 1999, J ENVIRON ECON MANAG, V37, P26 PUU T, 2003, MATH LOCATION LAND U RAMANKUTTY N, 1998, GLOBAL BIOGEOCHEM CY, V12, P667 RAMANKUTTY N, 1999, GLOBAL BIOGEOCHEM CY, V13, P997 ROCKWELL RC, 1994, CHANGES LAND USE LAN, P357 ROSEGRANT M, 2002, INT MODEL POLICY ANA ROSEGRANT M, 2002, WORLD WATER FOOD DEA ROUNSEVELL MDA, 1999, SPATIAL MODELLING RE ROUNSEVELL MDA, 2003, AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON, V95, P465 SAIKO TA, 2000, APPL GEOGR, V20, P349 SALA OE, 2000, SCIENCE, V287, P1770 SANDS RD, 2003, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V56, P185 SANDS RD, 2004, 7 JOINT GLOB CHANG R SIEBERT S, 2002, GLOBAL MAP IRRIGATED SOHNGEN B, 1999, AM J AGR ECON, V81, P1 STEPHENNE N, 2001, AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON, V85, P145 STEPHENNE N, 2001, PRESENT FUTURE MODEL STEPHENNE N, 2004, GEO J, V61, P365 STRENGERS BJ, 2001, AGR EC MODEL IMAGE 2 SURICO P, 2002, 29 FEEM TAN GX, 2003, ASIA GIS C 2003 PUBL TAN GX, 2003, ECOL MODEL, V168, P357 TOTH FL, 2003, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V56, P37 VANDERVEEN A, 2001, ENVIRON MODEL ASSESS, V6, P145 VANMEIJL H, UNPUB AGR ECOSYST EN VANTONGEREN F, 2001, AGR ECON, V26, P149 VELDKAMP A, 1996, ECOL MODEL, V91, P231 VELDKAMP A, 2001, AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON, V85, P1 VELDKAMP A, 2001, ENVIRON MODEL ASSESS, V6, P111 VERBURG PH, 1999, APPL GEOGR, V19, P211 VERBURG PH, 1999, ECOL MODEL, V116, P45 VERBURG PH, 2002, ENVIRON MANAGE, V30, P391 VERBURG PH, 2004, GEOJOURNAL, V61, P309 WASSENAAR T, UNPUB GLOBAL ENV CHA WILLIAMS JR, 1995, EPIC COMPUTER MODELS, P909 WOLF J, 2003, AGR SYST, V76, P841 WOOD CH, 1998, PEOPLE PIXELS LINKIN, P70 YOUNG A, 1999, ENV DEV SUSTAIN, P3 ZAITCHIK B, 2002, ISPRS COMM 1 S 2002 ZUIDEMA G, 1994, WATER AIR SOIL POLL, V76, P163 NR 124 TC 3 J9 AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON BP 141 EP 158 PY 2006 PD JUN VL 114 IS 2-4 GA 032LT UT ISI:000236776600001 ER PT J AU Matutinovic, I TI Organizational patterns of economies: an ecological perspective SO ECOLOGICAL ECONOMICS LA English DT Article C1 GfK Ctr Market Res, Zagreb 10000, Croatia. RP Matutinovic, I, GfK Ctr Market Res, Draskoviceva 54, Zagreb 10000, Croatia. AB A complex adaptive systems paradigm can be used to abridge theorizing in ecological and economic sciences. The paper discusses economic flows, connectivity and stability from the perspective of theoretical ecology. The global economy, by analogy with ecosystems, appears to self-organize as an ascendent system: most of the world trade is done among the tiny fraction of technologically advanced countries and trade interaction strength exhibits a power law with exponential decay. Small world behavior and preferential attachment characterizes interactions among economic agents. Industrial economics and the world economic system as a whole appear to evolve towards the,maximum power' efficiency. Development that fosters efficiency in the maximum power sense (all the world becomes industrialized) implies a trade-off in socio-economic diversity, and may be antithetical to the stability of the global economy. If we take an ecological perspective, then the problem of global development does not reside in the realm of technology or global governance. It boils down to the question of required natural balance in living systems. the balance between organized complexity and overhead, the harmony between efficiency and adaptability. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. 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Univ Nacl Mayor San Marcos, La Paz, Bolivia. RP O'Hare, G, Univ Derby, Geog Div, Kedleston Rd, Derby DE22 1GB, England. AB Landslides in the city of La Paz, Bolivia are complex in space and time. Their distribution within the city is differentiated by geographical variations in slope gradient, the nature of overlying surface deposits, and drainage density patterns. When mapped, the distribution of the most landslide-prone locations in the city coincides with the most mobile surface deposits on the higher and steeper slopes of the city. The timing of landslides is triggered when slope materials become saturated with moisture by rainfall, stream water, water seepage from high surrounding water tables, and from domestic sources. Landslide frequencies over the last 40 years show the role of inter-annual variations in summer rainfalls, especially the late summer period (Jan-Mar), and rising water tables connected to Lake Titicaca. Associations with ENSO events, both warm (El Nino) and cold (La Nina), prove negative, pointing to the importance of moisture sources from the north, south and east (Amazon) but not from the west (Pacific). The most vulnerable group exposed to the landslide hazard comprise the inhabitants of the self-built informal housing areas who occupy the more elevated steeper slopes of the northern part of the city. But societal vulnerability to earth movement in the city is widespread and interconnected. Higher income groups in the southern part of the city are affected by slower, if less dramatic, forms of land failure, and rich housing in downstream areas of the city are impacted by flash flooding encouraged by deforestation on the northern hill slopes where the poor live. Two case studies highlight the vulnerability and plight of the inhabitants of the self-built settlements in the aftermath of a major landslide, and a brief discussion of hazard mitigation and the importance of building hazard resilient communities concludes the paper. CR 1996, RAZON 0416 1996, RAZON 0420 2000, RAZON 0630 2001, RAZON 0113 2001, TOPICS ANN REV NATUR *IFRCC, 1999, WORLD DIS REP 1999 *IFRCC, 2001, WORLD DIS REP FOC RE, CH8 *PNUD, 2002, PAZ NUESTR FUT MEM 1 *WORLD BANK, 1993, WORLD BANK DEV REP AGARWAL B, 1990, J PEASANT STUD, V17, P341 ALEXANDER D, 2000, CONFRONTING CATASTRO ANDERSEN LE, 2002, RURAL URBAN MIGRATIO BERKE PR, 1992, PLANNING EARTHQUAKES BLAIKIE PM, 1994, RISK NATURAL HAZARDS, V1, P1 COMFORT L, 1999, ENV HAZARDS, V1, P39 DEGG M, 1998, ENG GEOLOGY SPECIAL, V15, P328 DORE MHI, 2003, NATURAL DISASTERS DE, P75 DRABEK TE, 1986, HUMAN SYSTEM RESPONS FAIRBAIRN J, 2000, 0001 U LEEDS EUR UN FLAGEOLLET JC, 1999, GEOMORPHOLOGY, V30, P1 FORD LR, 1999, GEOGR REV, V89, P129 FORDHAM MH, 1998, DISASTERS, V22, P126 GILBERT A, 2000, GEOGRAPHY 2, V85, P145 GILBERT AG, 1994, LATIN AM CITY GRIFFIN E, 1980, GEOGR REV, V70, P397 HARDOY JE, 1992, ENV PROBLEMS 3 WORLD HARDOY JE, 2001, ENV PROBLEMS URBANIZ HASELTON K, 2004, ESTIMATES RAIN RATES HEWITT K, 1983, INTERPRETATIONS CALA HEWITT K, 1997, REGIONS RISK GEOGRAP, V1, P1 HOUGHTON JT, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 JARRELL JD, 2001, TPC1 NOAA NWS MAIN H, 1994, ENV HOUSING 3 WORLD MASKREY A, 1989, DISASTER MITIGATION MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 MCGRANAHAM G, 2001, CITIZENS RISK URBAN MCMICHAEL AJ, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE HUMAN MITCHELL JK, 1999, CRUCIBLES HAZARD MEG MITCHELL T, 2004, GLOBAL SST ENSO INDE NG CWW, 1998, Q J ENG GEOL 2, V31, P105 NICHOLLS RJ, 1995, GEOJOURNAL, V37, P369 OHARE G, IN PRESS GEOGRAPHY OHARE G, 2001, GEOGR J 1, V167, P23 OHARE G, 2001, GEOGRAPHY 1, V86, P61 OHARE G, 2002, GEOGRAPHY 3, V87, P234 OHARE G, 2003, GEOJOURNAL, V56, P225 OHARE G, 2005, WEATHER CLIMATE CLIM ORLOVE BS, 2000, NATURE, V403, P68 PACHECO L, 1997, UNESCO COURIER MAR, P28 PELLING M, 2003, NATURAL DISASTERS DE PELLING M, 2003, VULNERABILITY CITIES PIELKE RA, 1998, WEATHER FORECAST 2, V13, P621 POLEMIO M, 1999, ENG GEOL, V53, P297 POTTER RB, 1998, CITY DEV WORLD PULWARTY RS, 1997, HURRICANES CLIMATE S, P185 RADA OP, 1997, CLIMATE RES, V9, P115 ROBERTS BR, 1995, MAKING CITIZENS SYLVES RT, 1990, CITIES DISASTER N AM TELLERIA AV, 1986, DISASTERS, V10, P88 THOURET JC, 1999, GEOJOURNAL, V49, P131 TOBIN GA, 1997, NATURAL HAZARDS VUILLE M, 1999, INT J CLIMATOL, V19, P1579 WISNER B, 2003, RISK NATURAL HAZARDS NR 63 TC 0 J9 GEOGR J BP 239 EP 258 PY 2005 PD SEP VL 171 GA 965CR UT ISI:000231928100004 ER PT J AU Clark, MJ TI Dealing with uncertainty: adaptive approaches to sustainable river management SO AQUATIC CONSERVATION-MARINE AND FRESHWATER ECOSYSTEMS LA English DT Article C1 Univ Southampton, Dept Geog, Southampton SO17 1BJ, Hants, England. Univ Southampton, GeoData Inst, Southampton SO17 1BJ, Hants, England. RP Clark, MJ, Univ Southampton, Dept Geog, Southampton SO17 1BJ, Hants, England. AB 1. Sustainable river management is the proclaimed aim of many agencies and institutions, but it remains challenging to bring this worthy ideal from the level of political rhetoric to that of practical river management. 2. Amongst the many drivers that already pressure the river manager. from internal institutional goals, through political aspirations to systemic change within the biophysical process systemic one common element emerges, that of prevailing uncertainty. 3. Once it has been accepted that conventional science and engineering approaches to uncertainty (risk) minimization may be sub-optimal in a truly holistic (biophysical, socio-economic, political) system, the challenge emerges of developing a more appropriate framework without destroying over-burdened managers and management systems in the process. 4. It is argued that the necessary components are often already in place or under consideration. A linked model is proposed comprising practical measures of sustainability, robust approaches to uncertainty (if necessary, involving attitude change), responsive (adaptive) management frameworks, and an important underpinning of fuzzy decision support. Copyright (C) 2002 John Wiley Sons, Ltd. 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RP Arkell, BP, Atkins Water & Environm, Epsom, Surrey, England. AB There is much discussion about the contribution of transport to global warming, but what about the impact of our changing climate on transport modes, infrastructure and passengers? This paper examines the potential impacts of climate change on London's transport systems, based on the findings of a research study undertaken for the London Climate Change Partnership between 2004 and 2005. Recent extreme weather events have had significant impact on London's transport systems; for example, the effect of high temperatures on London Underground and major flooding of roads and railway stations. Scenarios of climate change show that London will experience hotter summers, wetter winters, more intense rainfall and a rise in sea level over the coming century. This poses a number of risks to the operation and use of transport systems in a city where 26 million trips are made every day. The study focuses on four case studies. Each case study assesses: the issue now, drawing on current weather-related effects; how climate change will affect the future; the action already underway in London to address climate impacts; and options and timescales for adaptation. It is apparent that most risks already exist climate change will simply make them worse. With forward planning, successful and cost-effective adaptation can be achieved. CR *3 REG CLIM CHANG, 2005, AD CLIM CHANG CHECKL *ABL, 2005, MAK COMM SUST MAN FL *BUILD RES EST, 2004, 211738 LOND UND LTD *BUILD RES EST, 2004, 216996 LOND UND LTD *LBC, 2003, FLOODS CAMD REP FLOO *LCCP, 2002, LOND WARM IMP CLIM C *ODPM, 2003, SUST COMM PLAN *THAM TID, 2005, THAM TID STRAT STUD *UKWIR, 2004, 03CL102 UKWIR ARKELL B, 2005, MOVING MANAGING CLIM BODDINGTON EW, 2002, STATION TUNNEL ENV P HULME M, 2002, CLIMATE CHANGE SCENA JONES P, 2004, 1 U E ANGL CLIM RES WILLOWS RI, 2003, CLIMATE ADAPTATION R NR 14 TC 0 J9 PROC INST CIVIL ENG MUNIC ENG BP 231 EP 237 PY 2006 PD DEC VL 159 IS 4 GA 112DE UT ISI:000242504700008 ER PT J AU Young, KR Lipton, JK TI Adaptive governance and climate change in the tropical highlands of Western South America SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 Univ Texas, Dept Geog & Environm, Austin, TX 78712 USA. RP Young, KR, Univ Texas, Dept Geog & Environm, Austin, TX 78712 USA. AB Climate changes occurring during the past several decades in the high elevations of the tropical Andes Mountains have implications for the native plant and animal species, for the ecological integrity of the affected land cover, and for the human-biophysical systems involved. Consequences are also probable for rural inhabitants and their livelihoods, especially for farmers and pastoralists. Biophysical factors have always changed in these mountainous zones; the extent and degree of alteration acting on native and agricultural biodiversity is the concern. Addressing these climate changes is probably within the adaptive capacity of many local land-use systems, unless external socioeconomic or political forces are unsupportive or antagonistic. Suitable programs to provide information, subsidies, or alternatives could be designed. We highlight some of the inherent resiliencies of natural and cultural systems in the Andes and suggest that these systems contain lessons that could be useful elsewhere, in terms of the traits that allow for the sustainable utilization of dynamic and heterogeneous landscapes. 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V19, P37 ZIMMERER KS, 2003, AGRIC HUMAN VALUES, V20, P107 NR 219 TC 2 J9 CLIMATIC CHANGE BP 63 EP 102 PY 2006 PD SEP VL 78 IS 1 GA 083UY UT ISI:000240484900004 ER PT J AU Braune, I TI The contribution of agriculture and forestry to climate protection - agriculture and forestry policy in Germany SO BERICHTE UBER LANDWIRTSCHAFT LA German DT Article C1 Bundesministerium Ernahrung, Landwirtschaft & Forsten, D-53123 Bonn, Germany. RP Braune, I, Bundesministerium Ernahrung, Landwirtschaft & Forsten, Rochusstr 1, D-53123 Bonn, Germany. AB For the vast majority of scientists there can be no serious doubt at the present rime that greenhouse gas emissions of human origin are overtaxing the adaptive potential of many ecosystems and exerting an adverse effect on economic and social systems, including food production, all over the world. Agriculture and forestry also form a significant global source of greenhouse gas emissions, although in Germany these are of secondary importance when compared to those arising from energy generation, industry, traffic and domestic households. Regional adaptation to climatic change appears to be possible, but on a global scale it will lead to a deterioration in the standard of living. The U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change of 1992 and the Kyoto Protocol of 1997, initiated a process aimed at reversing this trend. Agriculture and forestry are also being called upon to contribute to this. At national level, these efforts are embedded in a comprehensive programme for reducing greenhouse gas emissions. In the agricultural sector, priority is being afforded to the exploitation and tapping of potentials for reducing laughing gas (N2O) and carbon dioxide (CO2), and in animal husbandry, to the possibility of reducing methane (CH4) and N2O. The employment of renewable raw materials in the form of biofuels, or for the generation of heat and electricity, creates a certain potential for reducing CO2. The binding of CO2 in woodlands and wood products (CO2 sinks) provides only temporary and small-scale relief. Against the background of the increasingly concrete contributions agriculture and forestry will be required to make to global climate protection in future, the necessity for research and development studies to examine possible contributions to every facet of this field will continue, also to continued assistance for political decision-making. 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RP Collins, KJ, Windhover,12 Albury Rd, Guildford GU1 2BU, Surrey, England. AB This review traces some of the developments in population physiology based on contributions to the Annals over the last 25 years. Two broad themes are evident, physiological systems variation and adaptation, and by way of introduction an historical perspective of their relationship within human ecology is explored. Studies of physical fitness and work capacity, and the efforts to create standardized Field procedures make up a number of the early papers. Longitudinal studies have provided reliable reference standards for Westernized populations, but are virtually non-existent for primitive groups. The relative importance of phenotypic and genotypic variations in working capacity have yet to be clearly defined. The level of habitual activity during childhood contributes to the development of ventilatory capacity though constitutional influences are of major importance. Variability in strength and motor performance of skeletal muscles are shown to have a direct bearing on aspects of grow th, development and biological maturation. Physical and psychological stress in communities have been investigated. These and other studies contribute valuable data on the issue of stress, hypertension and cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. On the theme of human adaptability, high altitude populations, variations in thermal tolerance and adaptations in ageing populations have all received recent investigation. Highland people of all ages have considerably larger lung volumes than coastal dwellers. Haematological, biochemical and pulmonary function show adaptive phenomena that vary in different highland groups. In the tropical biome, more recent work includes the functional consequences of malnutrition, ethnic and cultural differences in work capacity, and the effects of endemic disease on physical performance. Annals qi Human Biology papers have more recently contributed to investigations on morphological and physiological changes with human ageing. Though there is a decline in the ability to adapt to environmental stresses with age this may be met by changes in adaptational strategy in physiological systems. 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Norwegian Univ Sci & Technol, Dept Civil & Transport Engn, N-7491 Trondheim, Norway. RP Liso, KR, Norwegian Bldg Res Inst, POB 123 Blindern, N-0314 Oslo, Norway. AB The vulnerability of the built environment will be influenced by global-scale climate change. However, there are large uncertainties associated with the future performance of buildings due: to changes in regional- and local-scale climatic impact. The use of modern risk-management theories is discussed for developing cross-disciplinary strategies to meet the challenges of future climate change. It is shown that there are benefits to be gained from the introduction of risk-management strategies within a greater extent of the construction industry. Cross-disciplinary risk-based management strategies (ensuring cooperation along vertical decision-making lines), together with design guidelines that account for both historical local climatic conditions and scenarios for future changes, can be an important step towards a more active and dynamic way of ensuring a high-quality construction process and a sustainable built environment. Reducing the potential for defects or damage through the development of technical and organizational preventive measures (a risk-based management strategy) while at the same time applying the precautionary principle and discursive strategies in the design, construction and geographical localization of buildings, is likely to increase the robustness of the built environment in the light of the unknown risks of future climate change. CR *INT STAND ORG, 2002, 732002 ISOIEC *NORG OFF UTR, 2000, 200024 NOU STAT FORV AVEN T, 2003, FDN RISK ANAL KNOWLE COMERIO MC, 2004, BUILD RES INF, V32, P403 DUNCAN J, 2005, BUILD RES INF, V33, P120 DUPLESSIS C, 2003, BUILD RES INF, V31, P240 HASSELMANN K, 2003, SCIENCE, V302, P1923 HERTIN J, 2003, BUILD RES INF, V31, P278 INGVALDSEN T, 1994, 163 NORW BUILD RES I JAEGER CC, 2001, RISK UNCERTAINTY RAT KARL TR, 2003, SCIENCE, V302, P1719 KLINKE A, 2001, J RISK RES, V4, P159 LARSSON N, 2003, BUILD RES INF, V31, P231 LISO KR, 2000, 10146 NORW BUILD RES LISO KR, 2003, BUILD RES INF, V31, P200 LISO KR, 2005, BUILD RES INF, V33, P41 LISO KR, 2005, P 7 S BUILD PHYS NOR LOWE R, 2001, 0104 CRISP LEED METR MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 MEHUS J, 2004, 379 NORW BUILD RES I MELOYSUND V, IN PRESS J STRUCTURA METZ B, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 MILLS E, 2003, BUILD RES INF, V31, P257 NAESS LO, 2002, I DIMENSIONS CLIMATE NORDVIK V, 2004, CONSTRUCTION MANAGEM, V22, P765 OBRIEN KL, 2004, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V64, P193 OYEN CF, 2005, P 7 S BUILD PHYS NOR RASMUSSEN J, 1997, SAFETY SCI, V27, P183 SANDERS CH, 2003, BUILD RES INF, V31, P210 SHIMODA Y, 2003, BUILD RES INF, V31, P222 SPENCE R, 2004, BUILD RES INF, V32, P364 SPENCE R, 2004, BUILD RES INF, V32, P391 STEEMERS K, 2003, BUILD RES INF, V31, P291 WHITE RR, 2004, BUILD RES INF, V32, P438 YOHE GW, 2002, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V12, P25 NR 35 TC 0 J9 BUILDING RES INFORM BP 1 EP 10 PY 2006 PD JAN-FEB VL 34 IS 1 GA 003AY UT ISI:000234655200001 ER PT J AU Christie, P Fluharty, DL White, AT Eisma-Osorio, L Jatulan, W TI Assessing the feasibility of ecosystem-based fisheries management in tropical contexts SO MARINE POLICY LA English DT Article C1 Univ Washington, Sch Marine Affairs, Seattle, WA 98105 USA. Univ Washington, Henry M Jackson Sch Int Studies, Seattle, WA 98105 USA. Tetra Tech EM Inc, Cebu, Philippines. FISH, Cebu, Philippines. CCEF, Cebu 6000, Philippines. RP Christie, P, Univ Washington, Sch Marine Affairs, 3707 Brooklyn Ave NE, Seattle, WA 98105 USA. AB This analysis documents the reasons for emerging interest in ecosystem-based fisheries management (EBFM) and relates this management model to others. It highlights the central challenges to EBFM in the tropical context and examines an ongoing project, Fisheries Improved for Sustainable Harvest (FISH), in the Philippines-likely the first EBFM project in the tropics. The Philippine legal and institutional context provides major governance challenges to EBFM, especially as management is scaled tip. A monitoring framework with process and output criteria is applied to FISH to establish progress to date. Major institutional and governance challenges for EBFM will require monitoring, evaluation, and adaptation. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *DEP AGR BUR FISH, 2004, TURB SEAS STAT PHIL, P378 *DEP ENV NAT RES, 2001, PHIL COAST MAN GUID *EC PRINC ADV PAN, 1999, REP C EC BAS FISH MA *EC VIS COMM, 2004, EC SCI SUST CROWD PL *FAO, 2003, EC APPR FISH FOOD AG, V4 *FAO, 2003, EC APPR FISH, V4 *U RHOD ISL, 1998, FRAM MON ASS SOC GOV ALCALA AC, 2002, ASIAN FISHERIES SCI, V15, P177 ALINO PM, 2004, TURBULENT SEAS STATU, P65 BABCOCK EA, 2004, B MAR SCI, V74, P685 BARUT NC, 2004, TURBULENT SEAS STATU, P22 BRECHIN SR, 2003, CONTESTED NATURE PRO BROWMAN HI, 2005, MAR ECOL-PROG SER, V300, P241 CHRISTENSEN NL, 1996, ECOL APPL, V6, P665 CHRISTIE P, 1997, COAST MANAGE, V25, P155 CHRISTIE P, 2002, J ENVIRON MANAGE, V66, P441 CHRISTIE P, 2003, FISHERIES, V28, P22 CHRISTIE P, 2005, OCEAN COAST MANAGE, V48, P208 CHRISTIE P, 2005, OCEAN COAST MANAGE, V48, P468 CHRISTIE P, 2006, COASTAL ENV FISHERIE, P63 CIANNELLI L, 2004, ECOLOGICAL APPL, V16, P942 COURTNEY CA, 2000, COAST MANAGE, V28, P39 CRUZTRINIDAD A, 1998, TAMBULI, V4, P17 DEGUIT ET, 2004, PARTICIPATORY COASTA, P134 DELAMARE WK, 2004, MAR POLICY, V29, P57 EISMA RLV, 2005, OCEAN COAST MANAGE, V48, P336 FLUHARTY D, 2005, MAR ECOL-PROG SER, V300, P248 FOWLER CW, 2004, MAR FISH REV, V65, P1 GABLE F, 2004, NMFSNE184 NOAA GARCIA SM, 2003, 443 FAO GREEN SJ, 2003, PHILIPPINE FISHERIES, P77 GREEN SJ, 2004, FISHERIES CENTRAL VI HANNA SS, 1998, ECOL APPL S, V8, S170 HENNESSEY TM, 2005, SUSTAINING LARGE MAR HOLLIDAY MC, 2004, NOAA FISH EC SOC SCI HUTCHINGS JA, 2004, NATURE, V428, P899 JOHANNES RE, 1981, WORDS LAGOON FISHING JOHANNES RE, 2000, FISH FISH, V1, P257 JUDA L, 2001, OCEAN DEV INT LAW, V32, P43 KACZYNSKI VM, 2002, MAR POLICY, V26, P75 KATES RW, 2001, SCIENCE, V292, P641 KOCK KH, 2000, UNDERSTANDING CCAMLR LINK JS, 2002, FISHERIES, V27, P18 LOWRY K, 2005, OCEAN COAST MANAGE, V48, P314 LUBCHENKO J, 2005, SCI CONSENSUS STATEM MILNE N, 2004, COAST MANAGE, V32, P61 MILNE N, 2005, OCEAN COAST MANAGE, V48, P427 MORRIS AD, 1992, FRONTIERS SOCIAL MOV MUNRO G, 2004, 465 FAO MURAWSKI SA, 2000, ICES J MAR SCI, V57, P649 MYERS N, 1988, ENVIRON CONSERV, V15, P205 MYERS RA, 2003, NATURE, V423, P280 OLSEN R, 2005, OCEAN COAST MANAGE, V48, P411 OLSEN S, 2000, COAST MANAGE, V28, P5 PAULY D, 1998, SCIENCE, V279, P860 PAULY D, 2000, TAMBULI, P23 PIKITCH EK, 2004, SCIENCE, V305, P346 PITCHER TJ, 2004, SUSTAINABLE MANAGEME, V43 ROGERS EM, 1995, DIFFUSION INNOVATION RUDD MA, 2003, ECOLOGICAL EC, V48, P109 RUDDLE K, 1994, 869 FAO SHERMAN K, 1999, FISHERIES, V24, P15 SHERMAN K, 1999, MAR ECOL-PROG SER, V190, P271 SHERMAN K, 2005, MAR ECOL-PROG SER, V300, P275 STEINBERG PE, 2001, SOCIAL CONSTRUCTION TORRELL M, 2002, I ISSUES PERSPECTIVE WANG HL, 2004, OCEAN DEV INT LAW, V35, P267 WHITE AT, 1998, VALUES PHILIPPINE CO, P96 WHITE AT, 2000, MAR POLLUT BULL, V40, P537 WHITE AT, 2002, COAST MANAGE, V30, P1 WHITE AT, 2004, TURBULENT SEAS STATU, P84 WHITE AT, 2005, OCEAN COAST MANAGE, V48, P271 WITHERELL D, 1999, INCORPORATING ECOSYS WITHERELL D, 2000, ICES J MAR SCI, V57, P771 NR 74 TC 0 J9 MAR POLICY BP 239 EP 250 PY 2007 PD MAY VL 31 IS 3 GA 138WK UT ISI:000244393800002 ER PT J AU Reilly, JM Schimmelpfennig, D TI Irreversibility, uncertainty, and learning: Portraits of adaptation to long-term climate change SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 MIT, Joint Program Sci & Policy Global Change, Cambridge, MA 02139 USA. Econ Res Serv, Resources & Environm Div, USDA, Washington, DC 20005 USA. RP Reilly, JM, MIT, Joint Program Sci & Policy Global Change, 77 Massachusetts Ave, Cambridge, MA 02139 USA. AB The usefulness of adaptation strategies to changing climate depends on the characteristics of the system that must adapt. Divergent views on whether climate change will seriously affect society and what society can do about it can be traced, in part, to divergent views on these characteristics of systems. Issues of scale and how impacts are measured are also important. We identify a set of fundamental characteristics of natural systems and social systems that help to make underlying assumptions in climate change adaptation studies explicit. These are: Short-run autonomous flexibility; short-run non-autonomous flexibility; knowledge and capacity to undertake short-run actions; long-run autonomous flexibility; long-run non-autonomous flexibility; and knowledge and capacity to plan for and undertake adaptations that require changes in long-lived assets. Applications to crop agriculture and ecosystems illustrate how these portraits can be used. We find that if empirical research is to resolve questions of adaptability, more careful specification of the exact measure of impact and far richer models of the process of adaptation, able to test implicit assumptions in much of the existing empirical research, are needed. 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RP Watson, RT, World Bank, Mailstop MC4 408,1818 H St NW, Washington, DC 20433 USA. AB This paper discusses key issues in the science-policy interface. It stresses the importance of linking the conservation and sustainable use of biodiversity to the Millennium Development Goals and to issues of immediate concern to policy-makers such as the economy, security and human health. It briefly discusses the process of decision-making and how the scientific and policy communities have successfully worked together on global environmental issues such as stratospheric ozone depletion and climate change, and the critical role of international assessments in providing the scientific basis for informed policy at the national and international level. The paper also discusses the drivers of global environmental change, the importance of constructing plausible futures, indicators of change, the biodiversity 2010 target and how environmental issues such as loss of biodiversity, stratospheric ozone depletion, land degradation, water pollution and climate change cannot be addressed in isolation because they are strongly interconnected and there are synergies and trade-offs among the policies, practices and technologies that are used to address these issues individually. CR 2003, MILLENNIUM ECOSYSTEM *CBD, 2003, INT BIOL DIV CLIM CH MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 *IPCC, 2001, CLIM CHANG 2001 MIT *IPCC, 2001, CLIM CHANG 2001 SCI *IPCC, 2001, CLIM CHANG 2001 SYNT *IPCC, 2002, IPCC TECHN PAP, V5 *STAP, 2004, OPP GLOB GAIN EXPL I *UNEP, 1999, SYNTH REP SCI ENV EF HEYWOOD VH, 1995, GLOBAL BIODIVERSITY WATSON RT, 1998, PROTECTING OUR PLANE WATSON RT, 2004, RESP GROWTH NEW MILL NR 12 TC 1 J9 PHIL TRANS ROY SOC B-BIOL SCI BP 471 EP 477 PY 2005 PD FEB 28 VL 360 IS 1454 GA 914GA UT ISI:000228214600019 ER PT J AU Kurukulasuriya, P Mendelsohn, R Hassan, R Benhin, J Deressa, T Diop, M Eid, HM Fosu, KY Gbetibouo, G Jain, S Mahamadou, A Mano, R Kabubo-Mariara, J El-Marsafawy, S Molua, E Ouda, S Ouedraogo, M Sene, I Maddison, D Seo, SN Dinar, A TI Will African agriculture survive climate change? SO WORLD BANK ECONOMIC REVIEW LA English DT Article C1 Yale Univ, New Haven, CT 06520 USA. Univ Pretoria, Ctr Environm Econ & Policy Africa, ZA-0002 Pretoria, South Africa. RP Kurukulasuriya, P, Yale Univ, New Haven, CT 06520 USA. AB Measurement of the likely magnitude of the economic impact of climate change on African agriculture has been a challenge. Using data from a survey of more than 9,000 farmers across 11 African countries, a cross-sectional approach estimates how farm net revenues are affected by climate change compared with current mean temperature. Revenues fall with warming for dryland crops (temperature elasticity of -1.9) and livestock (-5.4), whereas revenues rise for irrigated crops (elasticity of 0.5), which are located in relatively cool parts of Africa and are buffered by irrigation from the effects of warming. At first, warming has little net aggregate effect as the gains for irrigated crops offset the losses for dryland crops and livestock. Warming, however, will likely reduce dryland farm income immediately. The final effects will also depend on changes in precipitation, because revenues from all farm types increase with precipitation. Because irrigated farms are less sensitive to climate, where water is available, irrigation is a practical adaptation to climate change in Africa. CR *FAO, 2003, DIG SOIL MAP WORLD V *IWMI, 2003, HYDR DAT GLOB ENV FA *WORLD BANK, 2003, AFR RAINF TEMP EV SY ADAMS RM, 1999, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V41, P363 BASIST A, 1998, J APPL METEOROL, V37, P888 BASIST A, 2001, J HYDROMETEOROL, V2, P297 CLINE WR, 1996, AM ECON REV, V86, P1309 DARWIN RF, 1999, AM ECON REV, V89, P1049 DERESSA T, 2005, AGREKON, V44, P524 EVENSON RE, 2003, SCIENCE, V300, P758 GBETIBOUO GA, 2005, GLOBAL PLANET CHANGE, V47, P143 INOCENCIO A, 2005, 6 INT WAT MAN I AFR KAISER H, 1993, AGR DIMENSIONS GLOBA KAISER HM, 1993, AM J AGR ECON, V75, P387 KELLY DL, 2005, J ENVIRON ECON MANAG, V50, P468 KUMAR KSK, 2001, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V11, P147 KURUKULASURIYA P, 2003, CLIMATE CHANGE SERIE, V91 KURUKULASURIYA P, 2006, CLIMATE CHANGE MCCARTY J, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 MENDELSOHN R, 1994, AM ECON REV, V84, P753 MENDELSOHN R, 1999, AM ECON REV, V89, P1053 MENDELSOHN R, 2001, ENVIRON DEV ECON 1, V6, P85 MENDELSOHN R, 2003, LAND ECON, V79, P328 MENDELSOHN R, 2004, MITIGATION ADAPTATIO, V9, P315 MOLUA EL, 2002, ENVIRON DEV ECON 3, V7, P529 PEARCE D, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995 QUIGGIN J, 1999, AM ECON REV, V89, P1044 REILLY JM, 1994, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V4, P24 REILLY JM, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995 RICARDO D, 1815, ESSAY PROFITS RITCHIE JT, 1991, MODELING PLANT SOIL, V31 ROSENZWEIG C, 1994, NATURE, V367, P133 SCHLENKER W, 2005, AM ECON REV, V95, P395 SCHLENKER W, 2006, REV ECON STAT, V88, P113 SEO SNN, 2005, ENVIRON DEV ECON 5, V10, P581 TOL RSJ, 2002, ENVIRON RESOUR ECON, V21, P47 WENG FZ, 1998, J GEOPHYS RES-ATMOS, V103, P8839 NR 37 TC 0 J9 WORLD BANK ECON REV BP 367 EP 388 PY 2006 VL 20 IS 3 GA 086QW UT ISI:000240689100003 ER PT J AU Aerts, J TI Adaptation for river basins: connecting policy goals to the water resources system SO WATER SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY LA English DT Article C1 Free Univ Amsterdam, Inst Environm Studies, NL-1081 HV Amsterdam, Netherlands. RP Aerts, J, Free Univ Amsterdam, Inst Environm Studies, De Boelelaan 1115, NL-1081 HV Amsterdam, Netherlands. AB This paper focuses on a methodology called 'generic adaptation methodology for river basins' (AMR) that provides guidance to water managers seeking: (1) potential adaptation measures to climate change and climate variability, (2) measuring impacts, and (3) evaluating adaptations. The methodology uses basic elements addressed in existing adaptation research and is designed for a participatory setting involving various stakeholders. In AMR, the water resources system is seen as an economic asset that provides 'goods and services' for both humans and ecosystems. The innovative aspect of AMR is that it distinguishes impacts to water management objectives and impacts to the physical state of water resources in a river basin in a relatively simple iterative approach. Both impact types are quantified using indicators. The framework and results are demonstrated for a case study in the Walawe basin (Sri Lanka). It is explained that actually implementing adaptations in policy making can be difficult in trans-boundary river basins as each riparian country has its own policy objectives and hence ways of dealing with adaptation. CR *EEA, 1998, ENV PRESS IND EU *EGIS, 2000, 1K EGIS *EU, 2000, 200060EC EU *OECD, 1993, OECD ENV MON, V83 *WL, 2004, EFF MAAT STROOMG VAN *WORLD BANK, 2000, 20430CE WORLD BANK AERTS JCJ, 2004, CLIMATE CHANGE CONTR AERTS JCJ, 2004, UNPUB CLIM CH ARNELL NW, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, P191 BARKER T, 2003, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V13, P1 BOHM HR, 2002, SPATIAL PLANNING SUP BURTON I, 1998, UNEP HDB METHODS CLI DVORAK V, 1997, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V36, P93 GILBERT AJ, 1998, ECOL ECON, V25, P323 HOANH CT, 2004, CLIMATE CHANGE CONTR HOOIJER A, 2003, IRMA SPONGE SUSTAINA JUST R, 1998, CONFLICT COOPERATION, P4 KABAT P, 2003, CLIMATE CHANGE WATER LEARY N, 1999, MITIGATION ADAPTATIO, V4, P307 LETTENMAIER DP, 1999, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V43, P537 MENDELSOHN R, 1997, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V37, P271 MIDDELKOOP H, 2001, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V49, P105 MITCHELL TD, 2003, UNPUB J CLIM ROHDE FG, 2000, POTENIELLE HOCHWASSE SMIT B, 1999, MITIGATION ADAPTATIO, V4, P199 SMITH B, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P223 STAKHIV EZ, 1996, ADAPTING CLIMATE CHA, P243 STAKHIV EZ, 1998, WATER POLICY, V1, P159 TIELROOY E, 2000, WATERBELEID 21 EEUW VANAST JA, 2003, PHYS CHEM EARTH, V28, P555 VANDAM JC, 1997, 45 SWAP WAG AGR U VANDERHELM R, 2003, PHYS CHEM EARTH, V28, P563 WHEATON EE, 1999, MITIGATION ADAPTATIO, V4, P215 NR 33 TC 0 J9 WATER SCI TECHNOL BP 121 EP 131 PY 2005 VL 51 IS 5 GA 931CW UT ISI:000229464400018 ER PT J AU MCCORRISTON, J TI THE HALAF ENVIRONMENT AND HUMAN ACTIVITIES IN THE KHABUR DRAINAGE, SYRIA SO JOURNAL OF FIELD ARCHAEOLOGY LA English DT Article RP MCCORRISTON, J, SMITHSONIAN INST,DEPT ANTHROPOL,NMNH MRC 112,WASHINGTON,DC 20560. AB Archaeobotanical studies frequently focus on single site economies; as a result, relatively few such studies in the Near East use plant remains to develop regional perspectives. By comparing farming practices and evidence for plant resources in the vicinities of two contemporary Halaf sites in different environments, this paper offers a first attempt to examine bow peoples of the 5th millennium B. C., linked by their material culture, differed in their adaptation to local environments. CR *SYR MET DEP, 1977, CLIM ATL SYR *UNESCO, 1963, BIOCL MAP MED ZON *UNESCO, 1969, VEG MAP MED ZON EXPL AKKERMANS PMM, 1987, PALEORIENT, V13, P23 AKKERMANS PMM, 1989, BAR INT SERIES, V468, P17 ALAZM A, 1985, THESIS U LONDON BISCHOF E, 1978, COMMON WEEDS IRAN TU BOTTEMA S, 1979, POLLEN SPORES, V21, P427 BOTTEMA S, 1989, EUPHRATES ARCHAEOLOG, P1 CHARLES M, 1988, B SUMERIAN AGRICULTU, V4, P1 CHARLES MP, 1984, B SUMERIAN AGR, V1, P17 CHARLES MP, 1985, B SUMERIAN AGRICULTU, V2, P39 DAUBENMIRE R, 1968, ADV ECOL RES, V5, P209 DAVIDSON T, 1976, IRAQ, V38, P45 DAVIDSON TE, 1977, THESIS U EDINBURGH DAVIDSON TE, 1980, IRAQ, V42, P155 DAVIDSON TE, 1981, IRAQ, V43, P1 DAVIDSON TE, 1981, J FIELD ARCHAEOL, V8, P66 DAVIES DH, 1957, ECON GEOGR, V33, P122 DEVOS A, 1969, ADV ECOL RES, V6, P137 DIMBLEBY GW, 1967, PLANTS ARCHAEOLOGY FASHAM P, 1978, BAR BRIT SERIES, V50, P363 FREY W, IN PRESS BERICHTE AU GILL NT, 1980, AGR BOTANY, V1 GOODWIN H, 1941, J ECOL, V29, P117 GREMMEN WHE, 1 BER AUSGR TELL SEH GUEST E, 1966, FLORA IRAQ HELBAEK H, 1961, ANATOLIAN STUDIES, V11, P77 HELBAEK H, 1970, EXCAVATIONS HACILAR, V1, P189 HIJARA IH, 1980, THESIS U LONDON HILLMAN G, 1984, B SUMERIAN AGR, V1, P114 HILLMAN GC, 1984, PLANTS ANCIENT MAN S, P1 HILMAN GC, 1985, B SUMERIAN AGR, V2, P1 HOLE F, 1986, ANN ARCHEOL ARABES S, V36, P172 HOURS F, 1987, CHRONOLOGIES PROCHE, V379, P401 HUBBARD RNL, 1975, B I ARCHAEOLOGY LOND, V12, P197 HUBBARD RNL, 1976, WORLD ARCHAEOL, V8, P159 JONES G, 1984, PLANTS ANCIENT MAN, P43 JONES G, 1987, J ARCHAEOL SCI, V14, P311 KAUL RN, 1979, ARID LAND ECOSYSTEMS, V1, P213 LEBLANC SA, 1973, PALEORIENT, V1, P117 LEHOUEROU HN, 1981, MEDITERRANEAN TYPE S, P479 MAGURRAN AE, 1988, ECOLOGICAL DIVERSITY MCCARTNEY PH, 1990, AM ANTIQUITY, V55, P521 MELLAART J, 1975, NEOLITHIC NEAR E MILLER N, 1988, CURRENT PALEOETHNOBO, P72 MILLER NE, 1986, ANATOLICA, V13, P87 MILLER NF, 1984, B SUMERIAN AGR, V1, P45 MILLER NF, 1984, J ETHNOBIOL, V4, P15 MILLER NF, 1984, PALEORIENT, V10, P71 MOUTERDE P, 1966, NOUVELLE FLORE LIBAN, P1 MUIR A, 1951, J SOIL SCI, V2, P163 NAVEH Z, 1975, VEGETATIO, V29, P199 PABOT H, 1957, 663 FOOD AGR ORG RAP PEARSALL DM, 1989, PALEOTHNOBOTANY PIPERNO DR, 1988, PHYTOLITH ANAL ARCHA POPPER VS, 1988, CURRENT PALEOETHNOBO, P53 RAVEN PH, 1973, MEDITERRANEAN TYPE E, P213 REIFENBERG A, 1952, J SOIL SCI, V3, P68 RENFREW C, 1966, P PREHIST SOC, V32, P30 ROWTON MB, 1967, JNES, V26, P261 SAGAN C, 1979, SCIENCE, V206, P1363 SANKARY MN, 1971, THESIS U CALIFORNIA SAUERBORN E, 1988, WEEDS W ASIA SEEDEN H, 1982, BERYTUS, V30, P55 VANLIERE WJ, 1960, RIJKSDIENST OUDHEIDK, V10, P7 VANLIERE WJ, 1964, SOIL MAPO SYRIA VANOPPENHEIM MF, 1943, TELL HALAF, V1 VANZEIST W, 1989, BAR INT SERIES, V468, P325 WATKINS T, 1987, BAR INT SERIES, V379, P427 WATSON PJ, 1983, STUDIES ANCIENT ORIE, V36, P231 WILCOX GH, 1974, ANATOLIAN STUDIES, V24, P117 WILKINSON AJ, 1990, STUDIES ANCIENT ORIE, V109 YOUNG VA, 1943, J FOREST, V41, P834 ZOHARY M, 1973, GEOBOTANICAL F MIDDL ZOHARY M, 1981, SETTLING DESERT, P29 NR 76 TC 4 J9 J FIELD ARCHAEOL BP 315 EP 333 PY 1992 PD FAL VL 19 IS 3 GA JK167 UT ISI:A1992JK16700003 ER PT J AU Schimel, D TI Climate change and crop yields: Beyond Cassandra SO SCIENCE LA English DT Editorial Material C1 Natl Ctr Atmospher Res, Climate & Global Dynam Div, Boulder, CO 80307 USA. RP Schimel, D, Natl Ctr Atmospher Res, Climate & Global Dynam Div, POB 3000, Boulder, CO 80307 USA. CR LONG SP, 2006, SCIENCE, V312, P1918 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 REILLY JM, 1999, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V43, P745 NR 3 TC 0 J9 SCIENCE BP 1889 EP 1890 PY 2006 PD JUN 30 VL 312 IS 5782 GA 061CF UT ISI:000238848100038 ER PT J AU Orlove, B TI Human adaptation to climate change: a review of three historical cases and some general perspectives SO ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE & POLICY LA English DT Article C1 Univ Calif Davis, Dept Environm Sci & Policy, Davis, CA 95616 USA. RP Orlove, B, Univ Calif Davis, Dept Environm Sci & Policy, Davis, CA 95616 USA. AB To study mitigation and adaptation to climate change, social scientists have drawn on different approaches, particularly sociological approaches to the future and comparative history of past societies. These two approaches frame the social and temporal boundaries of decision-making collectivities in different ways. A consideration of the responses to climate variability in three historical cases, the Classic Maya of Mexico and Central America, the Viking settlements in Greenland, and the US Dust Bowl, shows the value of integrating these two approaches. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *WORK GROUP 2, FRAM CONV CLIM CHANG ADAMS REW, 1991, SCIENCE, V251, P632 AMOROSI T, 1997, HUM ECOL, V25, P491 BARLOW LK, 1997, HOLOCENE, V7, P489 BUCKLAND PC, 1996, ANTIQUITY, V70, P88 DAVIS M, 2001, NINO FAMINES MAKING DEMAREST AA, 1997, ANCIENT MESOAMERICA, V8, P209 DIAMOND J, 2005, COLLAPSE SOC CHOOSE DUNNING N, 1997, ANCIENT MESOAM, V8, P255 DUNNING NP, 2002, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V92, P267 FREIDEL DA, 1988, AM ANTHROPOL, V90, P547 GOTFREDSEN AB, 1997, INT J OSTEOARCHAEOL, V7, P271 GROVE JM, 2001, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V48, P53 HAUG GH, 2003, SCIENCE, V299, P1731 HOUSTON SD, 2000, J WORLD PREHIST, V14, P121 JONES PD, 2001, HIST CLIMATE MEMORIE LAIRD KR, 1996, NATURE, V384, P552 LAUDURIE EL, 1967, HIST CLIMAT DEPUIS M MCGOVERN TH, 1996, ARCTIC ANTHROPOL, V33, P94 OPIE J, 1998, GEOGR REV, V88, P241 WHITE CD, 2001, LAT AM ANTIQ, V12, P371 WOODHOUSE CA, 1998, B AM METEOROL SOC, V79, P2693 WRIGHT LE, 1996, J WORLD PREHIST, V10, P147 NR 23 TC 0 J9 ENVIRON SCI POLICY BP 589 EP 600 PY 2005 VL 8 IS 6 GA 991MD UT ISI:000233817200007 ER PT J AU Sanders, R Shaw, F MacKay, H Galy, H Foote, M TI National flood modelling for insurance purposes: using IFSAR for flood risk estimation in Europe SO HYDROLOGY AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES LA English DT Article C1 Willis Ltd, London EC3P 3AX, England. Intermap Technol Inc, Nepean, ON K2E 1A2, Canada. RP Sanders, R, Willis Ltd, 10 Trinity Sq, London EC3P 3AX, England. AB Flood risk poses a major problem for insurers and governments who ultimately pay the financial costs of losses resulting from flood events. Insurers therefore face the problem of how to assess their exposure to floods and how best to price the flood element of their insurance products. This paper looks at the insurance implications of recent flood events in Europe and the issues surrounding insurance of potential future events. In particular, the paper will focus on the flood risk information needs of insurers and how these can be met. The data requirements of national and regional flood models are addressed in the context of the accuracy of available data on property location. Terrain information is generally the weakest component of sophisticated flood models. Therefore, various sources of digital terrain models (DTM) are examined and discussed with consideration of the vertical and horizontal accuracy, the speed of acquisition, the costs and the comprehensiveness of the data. The NExTMap DTM series from Intermap Technologies Inc. is proposed as a suitable DTM for flood risk identification and mapping, following its use in the UK. Its acquisition, processing and application is described and future plans discussed. Examples are included of the application of flood information to insurance property information and the potential benefits and advantages of using suitable hazard modelling data sources are detailed, CR *ASS BRIT INS, 2002, ABI NEWS RELEAS 0926 *CEH, 1999, FLOOD EST HDB *DEFRA, 2001, FD2304 DEFRA *DEFRA, 2001, NAT APPR ASS RISK FL BATES PD, 2000, J HYDROL, V236, P54 BLACK AB, 1999, FLOOD DAMAGE UK NEW BOMMER J, 2002, J SEISMOL, V6, P431 BURGESS KA, 2000, ANN C RIV COAST ENG CRICHTON D, 2002, WATER INT, V27, P119 DAMON JJ, 2002, P 22 ESRI INT US C S DIXON MJ, 1994, 65 PROUDM OC LAB GALY H, 2002, T GIS, V61, P31 HULME M, 2002, CLIMATE CHANGE SCENA HUNTINGDON S, 2002, FLOOD RISK MANAGEMEN, P151 LI X, 2002, P 2002 FIG ASPRS ACS MACKAY H, 2001, RANGER J DEFENCE GEO, P21 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 MERCER B, 2001, P PHOT WEEK 2001 STU NEUKUM G, 2001, PHOTOGRAMMETRIC WEEK PETERKEN O, 2001, OIL PETROCHEMICALS E PETERKEN O, 2001, RISK TECHNOLOGY INSI, V2 RAPER JF, 1992, POSTCODES NEW GEOGRA RODDA JC, 1999, DEALING NATURAL DISA, P75 SANDERS R, 2000, PHOTOGRAMM ENG REM S, V66, P1185 SHAW F, 2001, RISK TECHNOLOGY INSI, V2 WATSON RT, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 NR 26 TC 0 J9 HYDROL EARTH SYST SCI BP 449 EP 456 PY 2005 VL 9 IS 4 GA 976UQ UT ISI:000232759300014 ER PT J AU Van Bueren, ETL Struik, PC Jacobsen, E TI Ecological concepts in organic farming and their consequences for an organic crop ideotype SO NETHERLANDS JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL SCIENCE LA English DT Review C1 Louis Bolk Inst, NL-3972 LA Driebergen, Netherlands. Univ Wageningen & Res Ctr, Crop & Weed Ecol Grp, NL-6700 AK Wageningen, Netherlands. Univ Wageningen & Res Ctr, Lab Plant Breeding, NL-6700 AJ Wageningen, Netherlands. RP Van Bueren, ETL, Louis Bolk Inst, Hoofdstr 24, NL-3972 LA Driebergen, Netherlands. AB Currently, organic farmers largely depend on varieties supplied by conventional plant breeders and developed for farming systems in which artificial fertilizers and agro-chemicals are widely used. The organic farming system differs fundamentally in soil fertility, weed, pest and disease management, and makes higher demands on product quality and yield stability than conventional farming. Organic farming systems aim at resilience and buffering capacity in the farm-ecosystem by stimulating internal self-regulation through functional agrobiodiversity in and above the soil, instead of external regulation through chemical protectants. For further optimization of organic product quality and yield stability new varieties are required that are adapted to organic farming systems. The desired variety traits include adaptation to organic soil fertility management, implying low(er) and organic inputs, a better root system and ability to interact with beneficial soil micro-organisms, ability to suppress weeds, contributing to soil, crop and seed health, good product quality, high yield level and high yield stability. In the short run, organic crop ideotypes per crop and per market segment can help to select the best varieties available among existing (conventional) ones. However, until now many of the desired traits have not received enough priority in conventional breeding programmes. Traits like adaptation to organic soil fertility management require selection under organic soil conditions for optimal results. The limited area of organic agriculture will be the bottleneck for economic interest in establishing specific breeding programmes for organic farming systems. The proposed organic crop ideotypes may benefit not only organic farming systems, but in the future also conventional systems that move away from high inputs of nutrients and chemical pesticides. 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THE TENNESSEE-VALLEY-AUTHORITY AND APALACHICOLA BAY SO GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS LA English DT Article RP MEO, M, UNIV OKLAHOMA,SCI & PUBL POLICY PROGRAM,NORMAN,OK 73019. AB Concern about Society's ability to adapt to potential climate change impacts in a timely and effective manner has focused attention on the policy aspects of specific impacts. The author presents the results of a policy-oriented climate impact assessment of two case study sites in the southeastern USA: the Tennessee Valley Authority reservoir system and Apalachicola Bay. Each assessment draws upon biophysical impacts calculated from computer models of an atmosphere doubled in carbon dioxide. Policy implications of climate change impacts are discussed to identify options and weigh prospects for institutional adaptation. NR 0 TC 0 J9 GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANGE BP 124 EP 138 PY 1991 PD MAR VL 1 IS 2 GA FL913 UT ISI:A1991FL91300003 ER PT J AU Dilley, M Boudreau, TE TI Coming to terms with vulnerability: a critique of the food security definition SO FOOD POLICY LA English DT Article C1 Univ Wisconsin, Madison, WI 53706 USA. Food Econ Grp, Biglerville, PA 17307 USA. RP Dilley, M, Univ Wisconsin, 432 N Lake St, Madison, WI 53706 USA. AB This paper seeks to improve the practice of vulnerability assessment for food security pur poses by addressing long-standing issues that have hampered the development of both theory and methods. In food security contexts, vulnerability is usually defined in relation to an outcome, such as hunger, food insecurity or famine. This precludes employing the concept for the more specific task of evaluating the susceptibility of a population to explicitly-identified exogenous events or shocks that could lead to these outcomes. This lack of specificity has clouded interpretation of causal factors of food insecurity and famine. Alternatively, in a widely-applied framework for disaster risk assessment, the concept of vulnerability serves the more specific purpose of identifying characteristics of population groups or other elements that make them more or less susceptible to experiencing damage when exposed to particular hazards or shocks, Risks of negative outcomes are created by the combination of hazards and vulnerability, and vulnerability is defined by its relation to hazards rather than directly in relation to the outcomes themselves, The result has been an easier and more transparent translation of concepts into practice. That this latter formulation can also be applied in the food security context is illustrated through an analysis of food security risks in Tanzania. The analysis identifies economic alternatives households can exercise to meet their minimum annual food requirements. Exogenous threats or shocks that can suppress or eliminate particular alternatives exercised by different groups are identified as a means of assessing households' vulnerability and consequently their risks of becoming food insecure, or falling below the minimum threshold, (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *UNDP, 2000, REP STAT DROUGHT PRE, V1 *UNDRO, 1979, NAT DIS VULN AN *USAID OFDA, 1997, INTRO DIS MAN ANDERSON MB, 1991, DISASTERS, V15, P43 ANDERSON MB, 1995, DISASTER PREVENTION, P41 BLAIKIE PM, 1994, RISK NATURAL HAZARDS, V1, P1 BORTON J, 1991, MAPPING VULNERABILIT BOUDREAU T, 1998, 26 OV DEV I BUCHANANSMITH M, 1995, FAMINE EARLY WARNING BURTON I, 1978, ENV HAZARD, V1, P1 CHAMBERS R, 1989, IDS B, V20, P1 COBURN AW, 1991, DISASTER MITIGATION COBURN AW, 1991, VULNERABILITY RISK A DAVIES S, 1996, ADAPTABLE LIVELIHOOD DOWNING TE, 1991, 21 FEWS HEWITT K, 1983, INTERPRETATIONS CALA, P3 HUTCHINSON CF, 1992, EARLY WARNING VULNER JASPARS S, 1999, DISASTERS, V23, P359 KELLY M, 1992, DISASTERS, V16, P322 KOCHAR A, 1995, AM ECON REV, V85, P159 KREIMER A, 1999, MANAGING DISASTER RI LONGHURST R, 1994, IDS BULL-I DEV STUD, V25, P17 MASKREY A, 1989, DISASTER MITIGATION MAXWELL S, 1992, HOUSEHOLD FOOD SECUR MIDDLETON N, 1998, DISASTER DEV POLITIC RIBOT JC, 1996, CLIMATE VARIABILITY, V1, P1 SEN AK, 1981, POVERTY FAMINES ESSA, V1, P1 SEYOUM S, 1995, ANAL MAPPING FOOD IN SWIFT J, 1989, IDS B, V20, P8 TIMMERMAN P, 1981, ENV MONOGRAPH, V1, P1 VONBRAUN J, 1998, FAMINE AFRICA PRINCI WEBB P, 1994, VULNERABILITY MAPPIN WEBB, 1999, DISASTERS, V23, P292 WHITE GF, 1974, NATURAL HAZARDS LOCA YOUNG H, 1999, DISASTERS, V23, P277 NR 35 TC 1 J9 FOOD POLICY BP 229 EP 247 PY 2001 PD JUN VL 26 IS 3 GA 451WC UT ISI:000169824500002 ER PT J AU Buddemeier, RW TI Is it time to give up? SO BULLETIN OF MARINE SCIENCE LA English DT Article C1 Univ Kansas, Kansas Geol Survey, Lawrence, KS 66047 USA. RP Buddemeier, RW, Univ Kansas, Kansas Geol Survey, 1930 Constant Ave, Lawrence, KS 66047 USA. AB The world's coral reefs show rapid decline as a result of environmental change. Coral reef communities and organisms are stressed. potentially mortally, by (1) rising temperature, (2) rising atmospheric/surface ocean CO2 levels, (3) rising human populations, and (4) local aspects of climate change other than temperature. Further increase in all of these stressors is certain-, the future rates and magnitudes of items 1-3 can be estimated with confidence to be substantially greater than changes in the recent past. CR BUDDEMEIER RW, 1999, AM ZOOL, V39, P1 GATTUSO JP, 1999, AM ZOOL, V39, P160 JACKSON JBC, 1998, CORAL REEFS, V17, P193 JICKELLS TD, 1998, SCIENCE, V281, P217 KLEYPAS JA, 1999, SCIENCE, V284, P118 MANGEL M, 1999, NATURE, V398, P37 MOFFAT AS, 1998, SCIENCE, V279, P988 MYERS N, 1999, PEOPLE PLANET, V6, P6 PITTOCK AB, 1999, AM ZOOL, V39, P10 SALE P, 1998, TRENDS ECOL EVOL, V13, P125 SCHINDLER DW, 1999, NATURE, V398, P105 SMITH SV, 1992, ANNU REV ECOL SYST, V23, P89 VERON JEN, 1995, CORALS SPACE TIME WOLPERT L, 1999, NATURE, V398, P281 NR 14 TC 3 J9 BULL MAR SCI BP 317 EP 326 PY 2001 PD SEP VL 69 IS 2 GA 500CU UT ISI:000172609000005 ER PT J AU Pielke, R Prins, G Rayner, S Sarewitz, D TI Lifting the taboo on adaptation SO NATURE LA English DT Editorial Material C1 Univ Colorado, Boulder, CO 80309 USA. London Sch Econ, London, England. Columbia Univ, New York, NY 10027 USA. Univ Oxford, James Martin Inst, Oxford OX1 2JD, England. Arizona State Univ, Tempe, AZ 85287 USA. RP Pielke, R, Univ Colorado, Boulder, CO 80309 USA. CR *UNFCCC, 2002, DELH DECL CLIM CHANG BOUWER LM, 2006, DISASTERS, V30, P49 BURTON I, 2005, POLICY OPTIONS DEC, P33 GOKLANY IM, 2004, SCIENCE, V306, P55 HUQ S, 2004, IDS BULL-I DEV STUD, V35, P15 PIELKE RA, 2005, ENVIRON SCI POLICY, V8, P548 PIELKE RA, 2005, POPUL ENVIRON, V26, P255 RODOLFO KS, 2006, DISASTERS, V30, P118 STERN N, 2006, EC CLIMATE CHANGE ST THOMPSON M, 1998, HUMAN CHOICE CLIMATE, V1 NR 10 TC 0 J9 NATURE BP 597 EP 598 PY 2007 PD FEB 8 VL 445 IS 7128 GA 133UM UT ISI:000244039400024 ER PT J AU Salinger, MJ Sivakumar, MVK Motha, R TI Reducing vulnerability of agriculture and forestry to climate variability and change: Workshop summary and recommendations SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 Natl Inst Water & Atmospher Res, Auckland, New Zealand. World Meterol Org, CH-1211 Geneva, Switzerland. USDA, Washington, DC 20250 USA. RP Salinger, MJ, Natl Inst Water & Atmospher Res, POB 109-695, Auckland, New Zealand. AB The International Workshop on Reducing Vulnerability of Agriculture and Forestry to Climate Variability and Climate Change held in Ljubljana, Solvenia, from 7 to 9 October 2002 addressed a range of important issues relating to climate variability, climate change, agriculture, and forestry including the state of agriculture and forestry and agrometeological information, and potential adaptation strategies for agriculture and forestry to changing climate conditions and other pressures. There is evidence that global warming over the last millennium has already resulted in increased global average annual temperature and changes in rainfall, with the 1990s being likely the warmest decade in the Northern Hemisphere at least. During the past century, changes in temperature patterns have, for example, had a direct impact on the number of frost days and the length of growing seasons with significant implications for agriculture and forestry. Land cover changes, changes in global ocean circulation and sea surface temperature patterns, and changes in the composition of the global atmosphere are leading to changes in rainfall. These changes may be more pronounced in the tropics. For example, crop varieties grown in the Sahel may not be able to withstand the projected warming trends and will certainly be at risk due to projected lower amounts of rainfall as well. Seasonal to interannual climate forecasts will definitely improve in the future with a better understanding of dynamic relationships. However, the main issue at present is how to make better use of the existing information and dispersion of knowledge to the farm level. Direct participation by the farming communities in pilot projects on agrometeorological services will be essential to determine the actual value of forecasts and to better identify the specific user needs. Old (visits, extension radio) and new (internet) communication techniques, when adapted to local applications, may assist in the dissemination of useful information to the farmers and decision makers. Some farming systems with an inherent resilience may adapt more readily to climate pressures, making long-term adjustments to varying and changing conditions. Other systems will need interventions for adaptation that should be more strongly supported by agrometeorological services for agricultural producers. This applies, among others, to systems where pests and diseases play an important role. Scientists have to guide policy makers in fostering an environment in which adaptation strategies can be effected. There is a clear need for integrating preparedness for climate variability and climate change. In developed countries, a trend of higher yields, but with greater annual fluctuations and changes in cropping patterns and crop calendars can be expected with changing climate scenarios. Shifts in projected cropping patterns can be disruptive to rural societies in general. However, developed countries have the technology to adapt more readily to the projected climate changes. In many developing countries, the present conditions of agriculture and forestry are already marginal, due to degradation of natural resources, the use of inappropriate technologies and other stresses. For these reasons, the ability to adapt will be more difficult in the tropics and subtropics and in countries in transition. Food security will remain a problem in many developing countries. Nevertheless, there are many examples of traditional knowledge, indigenous technologies and local innovations that can be used effectively as a foundation for improved frming systems. Before developing adaptation strategies, it is essential to learn from the actual difficulties faced by farmers to cope with risk management at the farm level. Agrometeorologists must play an important role in assisting farmers with the development of feasible strategies to adapt to climate variability and climate change. Agrometeorologists should also advise national policy makers on the urgent need to cope with the vulnerabilities of agriculture and forestry to climate variability and climate change. The workshop recommendations were largely limited to adaptation. Adaptation to the adverse effects of climate variability and climate change is of high priority for nearly all countries, but developing countries are particularly vulnerable. Effective measures to cope with vulnerability and adaptation need to be developed at all levels. Capacity building must be integrated into adaptation measures for sustainable agricultural development strategies. Consequently, nations must develop strategies that effectively focus on specific regional issues to promote sustainable development. CR WATSON RT, 1998, REGIONAL IMPACTS CLI, V1, P1 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 *IPCC, 2001, CLIM CHANGE 2001 SCI *UNSO, 1997, ARID ZON DRYL POP AS ACEITUNO P, 1988, MON WEA REV, V116, P505 AMIEN L, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE VARIA, P29 BLENCH R, 1998, NAT RES PERSPECTIVES, V31, P8 BOULAHYA M, 2005, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V70, P299 BURTON I, 2005, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V70, P191 DESJARDINS RL, 2005, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V70, P283 DOWNING TE, 1992, CLIMATE CHANGE VULNE HARRISON M, 2005, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V70, P201 LEMOS MC, 2002, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V55, P479 LOU Q, 1999, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V43, P729 MARACCHI G, 2005, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V70, P117 MEINKE H, 2005, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V70, P221 MOTHA RP, 2005, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V70, P137 PERARNAUD V, 2005, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V70, P319 RIEBSAME WE, 1995, CLIMATE CHANGES INT, P57 SALINGER M, 2005, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V70, P9 SALINGER MJ, 1997, 199 WMO, P124 SALINGER MJ, 2000, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V103, P167 SHUKLA J, 1990, SCIENCE, V247, P1322 SIVAKUMAR MVK, 2005, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V70, P31 STEWART JI, 1988, CLIMATIC RISK CROP P, P361 STIGTER CJ, 2000, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V103, P209 STIGTER CJ, 2005, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V70, P255 VANVIET N, 2001, CONTRIBUTIONS MEMBER WALKER S, 2005, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V70, P311 ZHAO YX, 2005, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V70, P73 NR 30 TC 0 J9 CLIMATIC CHANGE BP 341 EP 362 PY 2005 PD MAY VL 70 IS 1-2 GA 942EG UT ISI:000230265100018 ER PT J AU OConnor, RE Anderson, PJ Fisher, A Bord, RJ TI Stakeholder involvement in climate assessment: bridging the gap between scientific research and the public SO CLIMATE RESEARCH LA English DT Article C1 Penn State Univ, Dept Polit Sci, University Pk, PA 16802 USA. Penn State Univ, Environm Resources Res Inst, University Pk, PA 16802 USA. Penn State Univ, Dept Agr Econ & Rural Sociol, University Pk, PA 16802 USA. Penn State Univ, Dept Sociol, University Pk, PA 16802 USA. RP OConnor, RE, Penn State Univ, Dept Polit Sci, University Pk, PA 16802 USA. AB Stakeholder participation is a crucial component of the Mid-Atlantic Regional Assessment (MARA) of Possible Consequences of Climate Variability and Change. We involved stakeholders for 6 reasons: to ensure that the assessment addresses stakeholder concerns, to enhance the technical quality of the assessment, to provide a forum for stakeholders with diverse constituencies to share ideas, to facilitate dissemination of assessment findings, to sensitize stakeholders to possible impacts as well as adaptation strategies, and to legitimize the process to third parties. The key means for involvement is an Advisory Committee that represents a myriad of experiences and perspectives, including members from mining companies, non-governmental voluntary organizations, and government as well as researchers. In the first phase members attended workshops and, approximately bimonthly, received (via e-mail, fax, or regular mail) updates on the MARA team's progress, with a request for feedback on items such as work plans for specific topics (e.g.. forestry, coastal zones), outlines of working group reports, draft scenarios that would serve as the basis for assessing impacts, or early materials for the draft preliminary report. Stakeholder involvement affected the focus of the assessment and the quality of the report. Stakeholders modified the MARA focus to include concerns that might have been ignored and improved the technical analysis of possible impacts. CR BORD RJ, 1998, CLIMATE RES, V11, P75 FISHER A, 1999, MIDATLANTIC REGIONAL KROSNICK JA, 1998, RESOURCES, V133, P5 LAZO JK, 1999, RISK HLTH SAFETY ENV, V10, P45 OCONNOR RE, 1998, RISK DECISION POLICY, V3, P145 YOSIE TF, 1998, USING STAKEHOLDER PR NR 6 TC 3 J9 CLIMATE RES BP 255 EP 260 PY 2000 PD MAY 2 VL 14 IS 3 GA 326ZD UT ISI:000087766400011 ER PT J AU Turner, BL Kasperson, RE Matson, PA McCarthy, JJ Corell, RW Christensen, L Eckley, N Kasperson, JX Luers, AL Martello, ML Polsky, C Pulsipher, A Schiller, A TI A framework for vulnerability analysis in sustainability science SO PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA LA English DT Article C1 Clark Univ, Grad Sch Geog, Worcester, MA 01602 USA. Clark Univ, George Perkins Marsh Inst, Worcester, MA 01602 USA. Stockholm Environm Inst, S-13014 Stockholm, Sweden. Stanford Univ, Ctr Environm Sci & Policy, Inst Int Studies, Stanford, CA 94305 USA. Harvard Univ, Dept Organism & Evolutionary Biol, Cambridge, MA 02138 USA. Harvard Univ, John F Kennedy Sch Govt, Cambridge, MA 02138 USA. Harvard Univ, Dept Earth & Planetary Sci, Cambridge, MA 02138 USA. RP Turner, BL, Clark Univ, Grad Sch Geog, Worcester, MA 01602 USA. AB Global environmental change and sustainability science increasingly recognize the need to address the consequences of changes taking place in the structure and function of the biosphere. These changes raise questions such as: Who and what are vulnerable to the multiple environmental changes underway, and where? Research demonstrates that vulnerability is registered not by exposure to hazards (perturbations and stresses) alone but also resides in the sensitivity and resilience of the system experiencing such hazards. This recognition requires revisions and enlargements in the basic design of vulnerability assessments, including the capacity to treat coupled human-environment systems and those linkages within and without the systems that affect their vulnerability. A vulnerability framework for the assessment of coupled human-environment systems is presented. 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Univ British Columbia, Fac Forestry, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z2, Canada. RP Fraser, EDG, Univ Leeds, Sch Environm, Leeds Inst Environm Sci & Management, Leeds LS2 9JT, W Yorkshire, England. AB Modem society depends on complex agro-ecological and trading systems to provide food for urban residents, yet there are few tools available to assess whether these systems are vulnerable to future disturbances. We propose a preliminary framework to assess the vulnerability of food systems to future shocks based on landscape ecology's 'Panarchy Framework'. According to Panarchy, ecosystem vulnerability is determined by three generic characteristics: (1) the wealth available in the system, (2) how connected the system is, and (3) how much diversity exists in the system. In this framework, wealthy, non-diverse, tightly connected systems are highly vulnerable. The wealth of food systems can be measured using the approach pioneered by development economists to assess how poverty affects food security. Diversity can be measured using the tools investors use to measure the diversity of investment portfolios to assess financial risk. The connectivity of a system can be evaluated with the tools chemists use to assess the pathways chemicals use to flow through the environment. This approach can lead to better tools for creating policy designed to reduce vulnerability, and can help urban or regional planners identify where food systems are vulnerable to shocks and disturbances that may occur in the future. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 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Ctr Marine & Atmospher Sci, Hamburg, Germany. RP Rehdanz, K, Univ Hamburg, Res Unit Sustainabil & Global Change, Hamburg, Germany. AB This study investigates the amenity value of climate to British households. By using the hedonic price approach, the marginal willingness to pay for small changes in climate variables is derived. Various indices of temperature and precipitation are used including means, ranges, extremes and January and July averages. We specify one hedonic regression including information on house prices and wage data for 755 Posttowns and found the model containing January and July averages of temperature and precipitation most appropriate. The estimates suggest that British people would typically prefer higher temperatures in January. Increased precipitation in January is likely to reduce welfare. Changes in temperature and precipitation in July are not significant. Limited global warming, with a more pronounced effect of temperature increases compared to higher precipitation levels during winter months, might thus benefit British households. 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RP Sutherst, RW, CSIRO Entomol, Long Pocket Labs, 120 Meiers Rd, Indooroopilly, Qld 4068, Australia. AB Global change includes climate change and climate variability, land use, water storage and irrigation, human population growth and urbanization, trade and travel, and chemical pollution. Impacts on vector-borne diseases, including malaria, dengue fever, infections by other arboviruses, schistosomiasis, trypanosomiasis, onchocerciasis, and leishmaniasis are reviewed. While climate change is global in nature and poses unknown future risks to humans and natural ecosystems, other local changes are occurring more rapidly on a global scale and are having significant effects on vector-borne diseases. History is invaluable as a pointer to future risks, but direct extrapolation is no longer possible because the climate is changing. Researchers are therefore embracing computer simulation models and global change scenarios to explore the risks. 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ME, 1995, EMERG INFECT DIS, V1, P39 WOODWARD A, 1998, CLIMATE RES, V11, P31 WU N, 1993, SE ASIAN J TROP MED, V24, P664 WU YC, 1999, AM J TROP MED HYG, V61, P78 YEEBIYO Y, 2000, AM J TROP MED HYG, V63, P90 YU ZN, 1990, B SOC VECTOR ECOL, V15, P189 ZULUETA DJ, 1975, B WORLD HEALTH ORGAN, V52, P109 NR 355 TC 3 J9 CLIN MICROBIOL REV BP 136 EP + PY 2004 PD JAN VL 17 IS 1 GA 769FX UT ISI:000188616800007 ER PT J AU Antle, JM TI Methodological issues in assessing potential impacts of climate change on agriculture SO AGRICULTURAL AND FOREST METEOROLOGY LA English DT Article RP Antle, JM, MONTANA STATE UNIV,DEPT AGR ECON,BOZEMAN,MT 59717. AB The purpose of this paper is to discuss how recent developments in the agricultural economics literature could be utilized to advance our understanding of climate change impact and of the potential for adaptation to climate change. The paper begins with a discussion of the economic meaning of impact and adaptation. Noting that analyses of impacts have focused on economic variables such as farm income or value of farm assets, we describe a modeling approach that allows environmental indicators, such as the productivity or value of the ecosystem and its components, to be included in impact assessments. The approach is based on a model of farm-level decisionmaking that represents land-use and crop-specific management decisions, as a function of the spatial heterogeneity of the physical environment, technology, prices of outputs and inputs, and policy variables. Using this model, it is then possible to discuss a number of key issues that arise in modeling impacts of and adaptation to climate change. These issues include the effect of choosing a modeling 'scale' or level of data aggregation; technological innovation and adoption; and changes in economic or environmental policies. 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RP Austin, DE, Univ Arizona, Bur Appl Res Anthropol, Tucson, AZ 85721 USA. AB Southern Louisiana occupies a dynamic landscape, marked by coastal wetlands interrupted by both natural and human-made levees, and vulnerable to both the Mississippi and Atchafalaya rivers and major storms coming off the Gulf of Mexico. It is also a region into which, for centuries, exiled and threatened populations have moved and found refuge. Systematic and dramatic changes along the entire reach of the Mississippi River coupled with activities within the region's wetlands such as levee construction, canal dredging, and petroleum extraction have contributed to both pollution and extensive coastal land loss. In this article, I discuss the recent hurricanes in light of the relationship between Louisiana and the rest of the United States and the environmental and community degradation that has occurred along the coast. I focus on petroleum development, the most recent and extensive natural resource to shape southern Louisiana's wealth and economy. 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RP Falkenmark, M, Stockholm Int Water Inst, Sveavagen 59, SE-11359 Stockholm, Sweden. AB The world is moving towards a dangerous situation of societal instability due to our failing ability to manage the life support, system on the human-dominated planet. Contributing to this problem are inherited and biased ways of thinking, originating from the 17th century and based on fragmentation and sectorization. A fundamental shift in thinking is therefore needed urgently, to better bridge, the partial realities addressed tip until now. Awareness has to be built up around the need for societal adaptation to hydroclimatic constraints, and strong enough institutions must be developed, capable of supporting unpopular decisions. A proper conceptualization is badly needed of the life support system in a science of 'environmentology', in which water is acknowledged as the bloodstream of the biosphere. Both land/water linkages and water/ecosystem linkages will have to be properly entered into an integrated and catchment-based land/water/ecosystem approach. The goal has to meet both societal needs and environmental sustainabhity conditions. Attention will have to be paid to all water, both liquid blue water, supporting humanity and aquatic ecosystems, and vapour-form green water, supporting terrestrial ecosystems, agriculture and forestry. The economic resource will have to be seen as the precipitation over the basin. Both water-dependent and water-impacting activities and ecosystems in the basin have to be analysed. Joint attention will have to be paid to environmental security, water security and food security. Methods for compromise building between incompatible water-related interests and ecosystems will have to be developed. Societal acceptance will depend on awareness campaigns-make water everybody's business-and has to be secured by participation. A new ethics of hydrosolidarity will have to be developed between those living upstream and those living downstream in a river basin. CR *GLOB WAT PARTN, 2000, BEIJ OCC PAP SER CONWAY GR, 1997, DOUBLY GREEN REVOLUT FALKENMARK M, 1993, P STOCKH WAT S STOCK FALKENMARK M, 1997, HYDROLOG SCI J, V42, P451 FALKENMARK M, 1998, AMBIO, V27, P148 FALKENMARK M, 1998, WATER POLICY, V1, P421 FALKENMARK M, 1999, WATER REFLECTIVE LAN FALKENMARK M, 2000, NO FRESHWATER SECURI FALKENMARK M, 2000, SUSTAINABLE CONSUMPT JANSSON A, 1999, ECOSYSTEMS, V2, P351 LUNDQVIST J, 1998, AMBIO, V27, P428 LUNDQVIST J, 2000, AGLMISC252000 FAO UN LUNDQVIST J, 2000, WATER INT, V25, P168 ROCKSTROM J, 1999, CONSERVATION ECOLOGY, V3 ROCKSTROM J, 2000, CRIT REV PLANT SCI, V19, P319 ROCKSTROM J, 2000, WATER SCI TECHNOLOGY, V43 SANDSTROM K, 1995, LIKOPING STUDIES ART, V120 SERAGELDIN I, 2000, WATER INT, V25, P284 TOULMIN C, 1994, UNPUB INT PANEL EXPE NR 19 TC 0 J9 INT J WATER RESOUR DEV BP 539 EP 554 PY 2001 PD DEC VL 17 IS 4 GA 529GC UT ISI:000174290800009 ER PT J AU Ericsson, K Nilsson, LJ TI Assessment of the potential biomass supply in Europe using a resource-focused approach SO BIOMASS & BIOENERGY LA English DT Article C1 Lund Univ, SE-22362 Lund, Sweden. RP Ericsson, K, Lund Univ, Gerdagatan 13, SE-22362 Lund, Sweden. AB This paper analyses the potential biomass Supply in the 15 EU countries (EU15), 8 new member states and 2 candidate countries (ACC10), plus Belarus and the Ukraine. The objective of this study is to make a more detailed assessment of the potential in Europe than previously undertaken. For this purpose five scenarios were designed to describe the short-, medium- and long-term potential of biomass for energy. The scenarios are based on assumptions regarding residue harvests, energy-crop yields and Surplus agricultural land. Energy-crop yields are correlated with the national wheat yields, a methodology we have not seen used in biomass assessments before. Our assessments show that under certain restrictions on land availability, the potential supply of biomass energy amounts to up to 11.7 EJy(-1) in the EU15 and 5.5 EJy(-1) in the ACC10. For comparison, the overall energy supply in the EU15 totalled 62.6 EJy(-1) in 2001. Consequently, there are no important resource limitations in meeting the biomass target, 5.6E Jy(-1) in the EU15 by 2010, which was set by the European Commission in the 1997 White paper on renewable energy sources (RES). However, given the slow implementation of the RES policy it is very unlikely that the biomass targets will be met. (C) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *ECE FAO, 1996, ECETIMSP11 ECEFAO *EUR COMM, 1996, COM96576 EUR COMM *EUR COMM, 1997, COM97599 EUR COMM *EUR COMM, 2001, COM2000769 EUR COMM *EUR COMM, 2003, AGR EUR UN STAT EC I *EUR COMM, 2003, COM200323 EUR COMM *EUR, 2000, 30 YEARS AGR EUR STA *FAO STAT DIV, 2003, FAOSTAT AGR DAT *INT EN AG, 2003, IEA STAT REN INF 200 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 *SOU, 1992, 199290 SOU *UN ECE FAO, 2001, TEMP BOR FOR RES ASS *UN POP DIV, 2003, WORLD POP PROSP 2002 BALDOCK D, 2002, STRACOAGR1200118 BERNDES G, 2003, BIOMASS BIOENERG, V25, P1 BORJESSON P, 2002, ENV ENERGY SYSTEM ST BORJESSON P, 2003, COMMUNICATION BORJESSON PII, 1996, BIOMASS BIOENERG, V11, P305 FISCHER G, 2001, BIOMASS BIOENERG, V20, P151 GERBENSLEENES PW, 2002, ECOL ECON, V42, P185 HALL DO, 1993, RENEWABLE ENERGY SOU, P593 HALL DO, 1999, ENVIRONMENT, V41, P5 HELBY P, 2004, ENV ENERGY SYSTEM ST HOOGWIJK M, 2003, BIOMASS BIOENERG, V25, P119 JOHANSSON TB, 1993, RENEWABLE ENERGY SOU, P1071 JOHANSSON TB, 2004, ENERGY SUSTAINABLE D, V8, P5 LINDROTH A, 1999, FOREST ECOL MANAG, V121, P57 NABUURS GJ, 2003, FUTURE WOOD SUPPLY E NONHEBEL S, 1997, QUANTITATIVE APPROAC OLESEN JE, 2002, EUR J AGRON, V16, P239 RABBINGE R, 2000, EUR J AGRON, V13, P85 ROSENQVIST H, 2000, BIOMASS BIOENERG, V18, P137 ROSENQVIST H, 2003, COMMUNICATION SAVOLAINEN V, 2000, WOOD FUELS BASIC INF VENENDAAL R, 1997, BIOMASS BIOENERG, V13, P147 YAMAMOTO H, 2001, BIOMASS BIOENERG, V21, P185 NR 36 TC 1 J9 BIOMASS BIOENERG BP 1 EP 15 PY 2006 VL 30 IS 1 GA 001JU UT ISI:000234530200001 ER PT J AU Miller, P Mitchell, M Lopez, L TI Climate change: Length of growing-season in the US Corn Belt, 1911-2000 SO PHYSICAL GEOGRAPHY LA English DT Article C1 Minnesota State Univ Mankato, Dept Geog, Mankato, MN 56001 USA. RP Miller, P, Minnesota State Univ Mankato, Dept Geog, Armstrong Hall 7, Mankato, MN 56001 USA. AB Length of growing-season data were obtained from 90 weather stations covering the core of the U.S. Corn Belt from 1911-2000 and analyzed qualitatively and statistically to ascertain if any systematic trends in warming were/are occurring within the context of global warming. We found that the 1920s were statistically cooler and the 1990s warmer. No discernible trend was statistically found throughout the 90-year period. Qualitatively, the onset of the growing season occurred at an earlier date as the 20th century progressed, but was not found statistically significant. Trends regarding termination dates were inconclusive. 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SO GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS LA English DT Editorial Material C1 Univ E Anglia, Jackson Environm Inst, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. RP Parry, ML, Univ E Anglia, Jackson Environm Inst, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. CR MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 *IPCC, 2001, CLIM CHANG 2001 MIT *IPCC, 2001, CLIM CHANG 2001 SCI NR 3 TC 5 J9 GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANGE BP 257 EP 260 PY 2001 PD DEC VL 11 IS 4 GA 503KB UT ISI:000172796700001 ER PT J AU McMichael, AJ TI The urban environment and health in a world of increasing globalization: issues for developing countries SO BULLETIN OF THE WORLD HEALTH ORGANIZATION LA English DT Article C1 Univ London London Sch Hyg & Trop Med, Dept Epidemiol & Populat Hlth, London WC1E 7HT, England. RP McMichael, AJ, Univ London London Sch Hyg & Trop Med, Dept Epidemiol & Populat Hlth, Keppel St, London WC1E 7HT, England. AB Urban living is the keystone of modern human ecology. Cities have multiplied and expanded rapidly worldwide over the past two centuries. Cities are sources of creativity and technology, and they are the engines for economic growth. However, they are also sources of poverty, inequality, and health hazards from the environment. Urban populations have long been incubators and gateways for infectious diseases. The early industrializing period of unplanned growth and laissez-faire economic activity in cities in industrialized countries has been superseded by the rise of collective management of the urban environment. This occurred in response to environmental blight, increasing literacy, the development of democratic government, and the collective accrual of wealth. In many low-income countries, this process is being slowed by the pressures and priorities of economic globalization. Beyond the traditional risks of diarrhoeal disease and respiratory infections in the urban poor and the adaptation of various vector-borne infections to urbanization, the urban environment poses various physicochemical hazards. These include exposure to lead, air pollution, traffic hazards, and the "urban hear, island" amplification of heatwaves. As the number of urban consumers and their material expectations rise and as the use of fossil fuels increases, cities contribute to the large-scale pressures on the biosphere including climate change. We must develop policies that ameliorate the existing, and usually unequally distributed, urban environmental health hazards and larger-scale environmental problems. CR 1992, WORLD DEV REP 1992 *INT PAN CLIM CHAN, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, V1 *UN CTR HUM SETTL, 1996, URB WORLD GLOB REP H, P559 *WHO, 1995, WORLD HLTH REP 1995 *WHO, 1997, HLTH ENV SUST DEV 5 *WHO, 1998, WHONUTNCD981 *WORLD RES I, 1998, WORLD RES REP 1998 BRENNAN EM, 1999, ENV CHANGE SECURITY, V5, P4 CHADWICK E, 1965, REPORT SANITARY COND CHAPLIN SE, 1999, ENVIRON URBAN, V11, P145 CONNOLLY P, 1999, ENVIRON URBAN, V11, P53 DAVIS DL, 1997, LANCET, V350, P1341 EPSTEIN PR, 1998, B AM METEOROL SOC, V79, P409 FOLKE C, 1996, GETTING DOWN EARTH GIRARDET H, 1992, GAIA ATLAS CITIES NE GITHEKO A, 2000, B WORLD HEALTH ORGAN, V9, P1136 GUIDOTTI T, 1995, ECOSYST HEALTH, V1, P141 HARDOY JE, 1992, ENV PROBLEMS THIRD W HULME M, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE SO AF JACOBI P, 1999, ENVIRON URBAN, V11, P79 JOHNSON CL, UNP0UB ANN C EP SOC LEE K, 1999, EUR J PUBLIC HEALTH, V9, P249 LISTORTI JA, 1999, ENVIRON URBAN, V11, P89 MACIEL A, 1996, MEM I OSWALDO CRUZ, V91, P449 MADDISON D, 1997, META ANAL AIR POLLUT MCGRANAHAN G, 1999, ENV CHANGE HUMAN HLT, P166 MCKEIGUE PM, 1997, DIET NUTR CHRONIC DI, P59 MCKEOWN T, 1976, MODERN RISE POPULATI MCMICHAEL AJ, 1993, PLANETARY OVERLOAD G MCMICHAEL AJ, 1996, HLTH CROSSROADS TRAN, P9 MCMICHAEL AJ, 1997, BRIT MED J, V315, P805 MCMICHAEL AJ, 1999, URBANISM HLTH HUMAN, P21 MEGENS T, 1998, GLOBE, V42, P4 MORSE SS, 1995, EMERG INFECT DIS, V1, P7 NEWMAN P, 1999, CITIES SUSTAINABILIT NRIAGU JO, 1996, SCI TOTAL ENVIRON, V181, P93 PATZ JA, 1996, JAMA-J AM MED ASSOC, V275, P217 REES WE, 1996, POPUL ENVIRON, V17, P195 ROONEY C, 1998, J EPIDEMIOL COMMUN H, V52, P482 ROTHMAN DS, 1998, ECOL ECON, V25, P143 SATTERTHWAITE DE, 2000, IN PRESS ENCY GLOBAL SCHELL LM, 1991, YEARB PHYS ANTHROPOL, V34, P157 SEMENZA JC, 1996, NEW ENGL J MED, V335, P84 SZRETER S, 1997, POPUL DEV REV, V23, P702 SZRETER S, 1998, SOC HIST MED, V1, P1 TONG S, 1998, JAMA-J AM MED ASSOC, V280, P1915 TONG S, 2000, B WORLD HEALTH ORGAN, V78, P1068 WANG X, 2000, ENVIRON SCI TECHNOL, V33, P3056 WILSON ME, 1995, BRIT MED J, V311, P1681 NR 49 TC 15 J9 BULL WHO BP 1117 EP 1126 PY 2000 VL 78 IS 9 GA 353FJ UT ISI:000089263900006 ER PT J AU Williamson, TB Parkins, JR McFarlane, BL TI Perceptions of climate change forest-based risk to forest ecosystems and communities SO FORESTRY CHRONICLE LA English DT Article C1 Canadian Forestry Serv, Nat Resources Canada, No Forestry Ctr, Social Sci Res Grp, Edmonton, AB T6H 3S5, Canada. RP Williamson, TB, Canadian Forestry Serv, Nat Resources Canada, No Forestry Ctr, Social Sci Res Grp, 5320-122 St, Edmonton, AB T6H 3S5, Canada. AB Perception of risk or subjective risk is playing an increasingly important role in risk assessment. This paper describes a study that investigated perceptions of climate change risk to forest ecosystems and forest-based communities among a sample of Canadian forestry experts. Data were collected by questionnaire from participants at a climate change and forestry workshop, sponsored by the Canadian Climate Impacts and Adaptation Research Network Forest Sector and the McGregor Model Forest held in Prince George, British Columbia in February 2003. These forestry experts were somewhat concerned about the impacts of climate change, and they appeared unlikely to oppose strategies for preparing for and adapting to climate change. The respondents felt that the effects of climate change on forests and forest-based communities are not well understood by the general public or forest managers. They also felt that there is a relatively high level of uncertainty about the effects of climate change, especially with respect to forest-based communities. These results have important implications, including reinforcement of the need for greater awareness of climate change risks and for increased research and monitoring effort targeted at reducing levels of uncertainty about future impacts at local scales. CR *IPCC, 2001, CLIM CHANG 2001 SCI ADGER WN, 2004, 7 TYND CTR CLIM RES BEAMISH TD, 2001, ORGAN ENVIRON, V14, P5 BURTON PJ, 1995, WATER AIR SOIL POLL, V82, P401 CAVANAGH N, 2000, FOREST SCI, V46, P344 CLARK L, 1993, RES SOC PROBL PUBLIC, V1, P289 CUTTER SL, 1993, LIVING RISK GEOGRAPH DAVIDSON DJ, 1996, ENVIRON BEHAV, V28, P302 DAVIDSON DJ, 2003, CAN J FOREST RES, V33, P2252 DIETZ T, 1989, SOCIOL FORUM, V4, P47 DUINKER P, 1990, LAND USE POLICY, V7, P124 FISCHHOFF B, 1983, SOCIAL SCI RES CLIMA HAUER G, 2001, NORX373 CAN FOR SERV KASPERSON RE, 2000, PERCEPTION RISK KEMPTON W, 1995, ENV VALUES AM CULTUR KHANEMAN D, 1982, JUDGEMENT UNCERTAINT LAZO JK, 2000, RISK ANAL, V20, P179 LEISS W, 2001, CHAMBER RISKS MACKENDRICK NA, 2004, NORX392 CAN FOR SERV MCDANIEL SR, 1996, AMA CONF P, V6, P2 MCDANIELS T, 1995, RISK ANAL, V15, P575 MCDANIELS TL, 1997, RISK ANAL, V17, P341 OCONNOR RE, 1999, RISK ANAL, V19, P461 SAPORTA R, 1998, CANADA COUNTRY STUDY, V7, P319 SAVAGE I, 1993, RISK ANAL, V13, P413 SCHERAGA JD, 1998, CLIM RES, V10, P85 SLOVIC P, 1987, SCIENCE, V236, P280 SLOVIC P, 2000, PERCEPTION RISK SPITTLEHOUSE DL, 2003, BC J ECOSYSTEMS MANA, V4, P1 STEDMAN RC, 2004, RISK ANAL, V24, P1395 WHYTE AVT, 1985, CLIMATE IMPACT ASSES NR 31 TC 2 J9 FOREST CHRON BP 710 EP 716 PY 2005 PD SEP-OCT VL 81 IS 5 GA 979VW UT ISI:000232974100032 ER PT J AU Beaudoin, AB TI Recent environmental change in the southwestern Canadian Plains SO CANADIAN GEOGRAPHER-GEOGRAPHE CANADIEN LA English DT Article C1 Univ Regina, Dept Geog, Regina, SK S4S 0A2, Canada. Prov Museum Alberta, Archaeol Survey, Edmonton, AB T5N 0M6, Canada. RP Beaudoin, AB, Univ Regina, Dept Geog, Regina, SK S4S 0A2, Canada. AB This paper examines 20th-century environmental change in the subhumid southwestern Canadian Plains, specifically in relation to the dominant agricultural landscape and to the climate of the past millennium as reconstructed from proxy data. Anthropogenic landscape change in the last century has been dominated by the conversion of grasslands to ranchland and cropland. This has heightened landscape vulnerability to climatic fluctuations, especially drought. Instrumental climate records, extending back to the 1880s, highlight the variability of precipitation in this region. Proxy environmental records, derived from lake cores and tree-ring analysis, extend this picture into the last millennium and show that drought has been a recurring theme of the Prairie climate. Tree-ring records suggest that some droughts in the last millennium may have exceeded in severity any in the instrumental record. The sustainability of Prairie agriculture depends on adaptation to the amplitudes of climatic change and variability evident in these proxy records. 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Univ Calif Berkeley, Berkeley, CA 94720 USA. Arizona State Univ, Global Inst Sustainabil, Tempe, AZ 85287 USA. RP Langridge, R, Univ Calif Santa Cruz, Santa Cruz, CA 95064 USA. AB Resilience is a vital attribute that characterizes a system's capacity to cope with stress. Researchers have examined the measurement of resilience in ecosystems and in social-ecological systems, and the comparative vulnerability of social groups. Our paper refocuses attention on the processes and relations that create social resilience. Our central proposition is that the creation of social resilience is linked to a community's ability to access critical resources. We explore this proposition through an analysis of how community resilience to the stress of water scarcity is influenced by historically contingent mechanisms to gain, control, and maintain access to water. Access is defined broadly as the ability of a community to actually benefit from a resource, and includes a wider range of relations than those derived from property rights alone. We provide a framework for assessing the construction of social resilience and use it to examine, first, the different processes and relations that enabled four communities in northern California to acquire access to water, and second, how access contributed to their differential levels of resilience to potential water scarcity. Legal water rights are extremely difficult to alter, and given the variety of mechanisms that can generate access, our study suggests that strengthening and diversifying a range of structural and relational mechanisms to access water can enhance a community's resilience to water scarcity. 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RP Hagmann, J, Talstr 129, D-79194 Gundelfingen, Germany. AB The paper focuses on the role of learning tools in enhancing the capacity of resource users to innovate and manage their land in an adaptive manner. Based on experiences in Zimbabwe. core elements of a learning process approach to innovation in natural resource management using "learning tools" is described and analysed. The approach is centred around socio-organisational strengthening and farmer learning through experimentation and discovery, both integrated into a coherent intervention process design. High quality process facilitation led by strong vision, empathy and a 'culture of inquiry' is considered fundamental to unleash the potential of learning tools and process approaches. The experiences of the case study presented in the paper reveal that learning tools can only be highly effective if applied within a coherent learning process. Dissemination or scaling-up of this type of capacity building through learning tools therefore needs to focus on promoting of the process of learning rather than simply recommending certain tools or technologies which have been developed. This requires the development of facilitation skills of development agencies and farmer organisations. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. CR DEBOEF WS, 2000, THESIS WAGENINGEN U ELWELL HA, 1986, SOIL CONSERVATION GROOT A, 2000, GATEKEEPER SERIES IN, V89 HAGMANN J, 1996, LAND DEGRAD DEV, V7, P145 HAGMANN J, 1997, FARMERS RES PRACTICE HAGMANN J, 1998, IIED GATEKEEPER SERI, V71 HAGMANN J, 1999, 94 ODI AGREN HAGMANN J, 1999, LEARNING TOGETHER CH HAMILTON NA, 1995, THESIS WAGENINGEN U HOPE A, 1984, TRAINING TRANSFORMAT KOLB DA, 1984, EXPT LEARNING EXPERI MOYO E, 2000, FACILITATING COMPETE, P143 ROLING N, 1998, J AGR ED EXTENSION, V5 NR 13 TC 1 J9 AGR SYST BP 23 EP 39 PY 2002 PD MAY VL 73 IS 1 GA 566MW UT ISI:000176433000003 ER PT J AU Adger, WN TI Evolution of economy and environment: an application to land use in lowland Vietnam SO ECOLOGICAL ECONOMICS LA English DT Article C1 Univ E Anglia, Sch Environm Sci, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. Univ E Anglia, Ctr Social & Econ Res Global Environm, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. RP Adger, WN, Univ E Anglia, Sch Environm Sci, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. AB This paper analyses the interactions between land use, institutions and culture in the context of climatic extremes in Vietnam. Although there has been a long history of examining the evolutionary nature of markets and institutions within an institutional economics framework, developing the institutional economic approach to include society environment interactions allows examination of processes which facilitate and constrain economic development. For example, this approach is used here to explain adaptation processes whereby climatic risk affects collective responses. These responses form an evolutionary link between institutions, culture, resources and the physical environment. The paper argues that historically climatic risks have been a factor in technological and political response within the agrarian society of Vietnam, in the sense that climatic extremes have acted as triggers to some significant social upheavals. In the past century, the impacts of colonialism, political change and related changes in social organisation, have significantly altered the social basis of resilience to climate extremes. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. CR *VIET GEN STAT OFF, 1995, STAT YB 1994 ADAMS J, 1986, WORLD DEV, V14, P273 ADGER WN, 1998, 9821 U E ANG U COLL ADGER WN, 1999, J DEV STUD, V35, P96 ADGER WN, 1999, WORLD DEV, V27, P249 ALEXANDER SE, 1997, NATURES SERVICES SOC, P71 ALLANSON P, 1995, ENVIRON PLANN A, V27, P1797 ANDERSON JL, 1981, STUDIES PAST CLIMATE, P337 ANH NT, 1995, J SOUTHE ASIAN STUD, V26, P121 BERESFORD M, 1990, J CONTEMP ASIA, V20, P466 BRAY F, 1986, RICE EC TECHNOLOGY D BURROUGHS WJ, 1997, DOES WEATHER REALLY CLARK N, 1988, TECHNICAL CHANGE EC, P197 DALY HE, 1992, STEADY STATE EC DEVRIES J, 1980, J INTERDISCIPLINARY, V10, P599 DOSI G, 1988, TECHNICAL CHANGE EC ENGLAND RW, 1994, EVOLUTIONARY CONCEPT FFORDE A, 1987, SOCIOL RURALIS, V27, P197 FFORDE A, 1996, PLAN MARKET EC TRANS GLANTZ MH, 1991, ENVIRONMENT, V33, P10 GUNDERSON LH, 1995, BARRIERS BRIDGES REN, V1, P1 HODGSON GM, 1994, EVOLUTIONARY CONCEPT, P9 HUYEN TG, 1993, CURRENT LAND USE VIE, P12 INGRAM MJ, 1981, STUDIES CLIMATES THE, P3 JAMIESON NL, 1993, UNDERSTANDING VIETNA KEARNEY M, 1996, RECONCEPTUALISING PE KERKVLIET BJT, 1998, CHINA J, V40, P37 KOLKO G, 1997, VIETNAM ANATOMY PEAC LACOSTE Y, 1973, ANTIPODE, V5, P1 LAMB HH, 1995, CLIMATE HIST MODERN LONG NV, 1973, REVOLUTION VIETNAMES LONG NV, 1993, REINVENTING VIETNAME, P165 MYERS MF, 1993, ENVIRONMENT, V35, P7 NELSON RR, 1982, EVOLUTIONARY THEORY NELSON RR, 1994, EVOLUTIONARY CONCEPT, P139 NORGAARD RB, 1994, DEV BETRAYED END PRO ORIORDAN T, 1999, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V9, P81 POPKIN SL, 1979, RATIONAL PEASANT POL POST JD, 1980, J INTERDISCIPLIN HIS, V10, P719 RAMBO AT, 1973, COMPARISON PEASANT S RAMBO AT, 1995, CHALLENGES HIGHLAND RUTTAN VW, 1988, CHALLENGES HIGHLAND, V36, P247 RUTTAN VW, 1998, EC DEV CULTURAL CH S, V36, P247 SACHS J, 1997, ECONOMIST 0614, P19 SAMUELS WJ, 1995, CAMBRIDGE J ECON, V19, P569 SCHNEIDER SH, 1984, COEVOLUTION CLIMATE SCOTT JC, 1976, MORAL EC PEASANT REB SEN AK, 1981, POVERTY FAMINES ESSA, V1, P1 SNEDDON CS, 1999, LIVING ENV CHANBE SO THRIFT N, 1986, PRICE WAR URBANISATI VANLUONG H, 1992, REVOLUTION VILLAGE T VANLUONG H, 1993, CHALLENGE REFORM IND, P259 VANLUONG H, 1998, CHINA J, V40, P61 VANTHANG N, 1995, CHALLENGES HIGHLAND, P101 WATTS MJ, 1998, THEORISING TRANSITIO, P450 WIEGERSMA N, 1988, VIETNAM PEASANT LAND NR 56 TC 2 J9 ECOL ECON BP 365 EP 379 PY 1999 PD DEC VL 31 IS 3 GA 265MD UT ISI:000084247200007 ER PT J AU Devendra, C Chantalakhana, C TI Animals, poor people and food insecurity: opportunities for improved livelihoods through efficient natural resource management SO OUTLOOK ON AGRICULTURE LA English DT Article C1 Kasetsart Univ, Bangkok 10900, Thailand. Int Livestock Res Inst, Nairobi, Kenya. RP Devendra, C, 130A Jalan Awan Jawa, Kuala Lumpur 58200, Malaysia. AB Poverty is a rural dilemma and continues to be a persistent multidimensional problem. It is associated with poor farmers, small farm systems, the landless, resource endowments, the socioeconomic environment and externalities, Over 75% of the poor live and work in rural areas, trapped in a poverty-adaptation-fragile lives-little hope-low life expectancy complex, with an enduring hope for self-reliance and a more comfortable life tomorrow. Since agricultural growth is central to improved livelihoods, strategies that focus on promoting such growth are critical: improved efficiency in natural resource management (NRM), of which animals are a part, can directly contribute to productivity enhancement and reduced poverty. It is estimated that approximately 678 million of the rural poor keep animals, within which the largest ownership of animals is seen in mixed crop-animal systems. The role and contribution of animals is discussed with reference to household benefits - current, medium-term and long-term savings, increased productivity of mixed farm systems, sustainability of agricultural systems and the environment, and enhancement of social stability. Mile large ruminants (buffalo and cattle) are very valuable for agriculture and farm security, milk and beef, ploughing and dung production, small animals (goats, sheep, chickens, pigs and ducks) are particularly important for nutritional and household security. The link between gender and animals is emphasized, especially the implications of the very strong relationship between women and children and small animals. This paper describes in detail characteristics of poor farmers and small farm systems. It discusses opportunities for NRM, and presents examples of data from different categories of animals and the extent of their contribution to total farm income, which in Asia ranges from 7-69%. It is concluded that improved animal production systems can increasingly make a significant contribution to improved human welfare, rural growth and reduced poverty. To achieve this, however, much more investment in agricultural research and development is necessary that can target less-favoured rainfed areas, coupled with participatory and interdisciplinary approaches, effective public-private sector partnerships, and commitment to purpose. CR 2001, HUMAN DEV REPORT *A ROW LTD, 1999, LIV POV FOC DEV *ADB, 1999, FIGHT POV AS PAC POV *CENTR RES I FOOD, 1995, FIN REP CROP AN SYST *IFAD, 1999, RUR POV ASS AS PAC R *IFAD, 2001, RUR POV REP 2001 CHA *ILRI, 2000, STRAT 2010 MAK LIV R *PCARRD, 1994, SERIES PCARRD, V77 AHUJA VB, 1997, DIRECTIONS DEV SERIE ALSTON JM, 1998, WORLD DEV, V26, P1057 CHANTALAKHANA C, 1990, P 3 AS AUSTR AN SCI, V2, P39 CHANTALAKHANA C, 2000, FIGHTING BULLS SO TH CHOWDARY S, 2000, P 7 INT C GOATS TOUR, V11, P705 DEHAAN A, 1998, ASIAN DEV REV, V16, P135 DELGADO C, 1999, LIVESTOCK 2020 NEXT DEOCAREZA AG, 1993, P REG WORK GROUP FOR, P183 DEVENDRA C, 1983, P 5 WORLD C AN PROD, V1, P173 DEVENDRA C, 1991, WORLD ANIM REV, V66, P13 DEVENDRA C, 1996, ACIAR P, V74, P27 DEVENDRA C, 1997, CROP RESIDUES SUSTAI DEVENDRA C, 1997, IMPROVEMENT LIVESTOC DEVENDRA C, 1998, ANN ARID ZONE, V37, P215 DEVENDRA C, 1999, OUTLOOK AGR, V28, P215 DEVENDRA C, 1999, P ILRI FAO ROUNDT LI, P133 DEVENDRA C, 2000, IMPROVEMENT LIVESTOC DEVENDRA C, 2001, ASIAN AUSTRAL J ANIM, V14, P733 DEVENDRA C, 2001, IN PRESS P AS AGR C DEVENDRA C, 2002, AGR SYST, V71, P169 DEVENDRA C, 2002, AGR SYST, V71, P27 DEVENDRA C, 2002, P INT S SUST FOOD SE, P129 ESCHEVERRIA RG, 1990, METHODS DIAGNOSING R, V11, P1 FAN S, 2000, 66 INT FOOD POL RES FAN S, 2000, FOOD POLICY, V20, P411 FOSTER J, 1984, ECONOMETRICA, V52, P761 GRYSEELS G, 1998, THESIS AGR U WAGENIN HOSSAID MS, 1996, UNPUB 14 INT S SUST KUMAR S, 2000, 7 INT C GOATS TOURS, V11, P554 LAQUIHON GA, 1997, UNPUB P INT WORKSH S LOHANI MN, 2000, P 7 INT C GOATS TOUR, V11, P693 MCDOWELL RE, 1991, PARTNERSHIP HUMANS A NITIS IM, 1990, SHRUBS TREE FODDERS, P92 ORSKOV ER, 1993, REALITY DEV AID EMPH PARDEY PG, 2001, SLOW MAGIC AGR R D C PARRIS TR, 1992, P 6 AAAP AN SCI C BA, V1, P247 PRUCSASRI P, 1995, IRRI DISCUSSION PAPE, V6, P63 RANGNEKAR SD, 1992, P 6 AAAP AN SCI C BA, V1, P271 RAVALLION M, 1994, 1270 WORLD BANK ROSEGRANT MW, 2000, TRANSFORMING RURAL A SAFILIOSROTHSCH.C, 1983, FAO EXPERT CONSULTAT SEN AK, 1973, INCOME INEQUALITY SEVILLA CC, 1995, IRRI DISCUSSION PAPE, V6 SUKRI MI, 1986, P 8 ANN C MAL SOC AN, P74 SURIAPERMANA S, 1998, S TAN PANG BOG IND, P21 THIEN N, 1996, P S INT SYST AN PROD, P63 WAHYUNI G, 1992, P 6 AAAP AN SCI C BA, V1, P301 WAHYUNI S, 1985, 43 SMALL RUB COORD R NR 56 TC 1 J9 OUTLOOK AGR BP 161 EP 175 PY 2002 PD SEP VL 31 IS 3 GA 595ZP UT ISI:000178138400002 ER PT J AU ROSENBERG, NJ TI ADAPTATION OF AGRICULTURE TO CLIMATE CHANGE SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Article RP ROSENBERG, NJ, RESOURCES FUTURE INC,CLIMATE RESOURCES PROGRAM,1616 P ST NW,WASHINGTON,DC 20036. AB Preparing agriculture for adaptation to climate change requires advance knowledge of how climate will change and when. The direct physical and biological impacts on plants and animals must be understood. The indirect impacts on agriculture's resource base of soils, water and genetic resources must also be known. We lack such information now and will, likely, for some time to come. Thus impact assessments for agriculture can only be conjectural at this time, However, guidance can be gotten from an improved understanding of current climatic vulnerabilities of agriculture and its resource base, from application of a realistic range of climate change scenarios to impact assessment, and from consideration of the complexity of current agricultural systems and the range of adaptation techniques and policies now available and likely to be available in the future. CR 1984, CAST102 REP 1986, DESERTIFICATION CONT 1990, CHOICES NEW CENTURY ADAMS R, 1989, POTENTIAL EFFECTS GL ADAMS RM, 1989, AM J AGR ECON, V71, P1272 ALLEN RG, 1989, POTENTIAL EFFECTS GL ALLEN SG, 1990, DOEER0450T OFF EN RE BACH W, 1979, ENVIRON INT, V2, P215 BBLASING TJ, 1982, PUBLICATION ENV SCI, V2134 BURTON I, 1978, ENV HAZARD, V1, P1 CAPINERA JL, 1989, ENVIRON ENTOMOL, V18, P8 CHAUDHURI UN, 1990, AGRON J, V82, P637 COMPTON JT, 1991, SCIENCE, V253, P299 COYNE DP, 1974, PLANT DIS REP, V58, P379 CROSSON PR, 1989, AM J AGR ECON, V71, P1283 CROSSON PR, 1989, SCI AM, V261, P128 EASTERLING WE, 1989, GREENHOUSE WARMING A, P91 FAJER ED, 1989, SCIENCE, V243, P1198 FREDERICK KD, 1990, CLIMATE CHANGE US WA, P395 GLANTZ MH, 1988, SOC RESPONSES REGION, P113 GOODMAN RM, 1987, SCIENCE, V236, P48 GROTCH SL, 1988, DOENBB0084 US DEP EN JENNY H, 1941, FACTORS SOIL FORMATI JODHA NS, 1989, GREENHOUSE WARMING A, P147 JONES CA, 1986, CERES MAIZE SIMULATI JONES JW, 1988, SOYBEAN CROP GROWTH, V8304 KATZ RW, 1977, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V1, P85 KELLOGG WW, 1982, FOREIGN AFF, V60, P1076 KEYFITZ N, 1989, SCI AM, V260, P118 KIMBALL BA, 1990, AM SOC AGRONOMY SPEC, V53 KOHLMAIER GH, 1987, TELLUS B, V39, P155 KROMM DE, 1990, CONSERVING WATER HIG LEMON ER, 1976, FATE FOSSIL FUEL CO2, P97 LINCOLN DE, 1984, ENVIRON ENTOMOL, V13, P1527 MILLER KA, 1988, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V12, P135 NEWMAN JE, 1982, IMPACTS RISING ATMOS, V2 PARRY ML, 1988, IMPACT CLIMATIC VARI RAWLINS SL, 1988, 1ST P N AM C PREP CL, P451 RHODES SL, 1991, WORLD DEV, V19, P1137 RIEBSAME WE, 1991, DROUGHT NATURAL RESO RITCHIE JT, 1985, USDA ARS, V38, P159 ROSENBERG NJ, 1979, MODIFICATION AERIAL, V2, P394 ROSENBERG NJ, 1981, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V3, P265 ROSENBERG NJ, 1982, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V4, P239 ROSENBERG NJ, 1990, CLIMATE CHANGE US WA, P151 ROSENBERG NJ, 1991, DOERL01830TH5 OVERV ROSENZWEIG C, 1985, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V7, P367 ROSENZWEIG C, 1989, AM J AGR ECON, V71, P1265 ROSENZWEIG C, 1989, POTENTIAL EFFECTS GL, V1 SCHLESINGER ME, 1985, DOEER0237 US DEP EN SCHNEIDER SH, 1989, GREENHOUSE WARMING A, P7 SMITH JB, 1989, POTENTIAL EFFECTS GL TANS PP, 1990, SCIENCE, V247, P1431 WAGGONER PE, 1983, CARBON DIOXIDE ASSES WATSON AJ, 1991, NATURE, V350, P50 WILHITE DA, 1979, OCP279 U NEBR LINC N WILKS DS, 1988, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V13, P19 WILSON EO, 1989, SCI AM, V261, P108 NR 58 TC 28 J9 CLIMATIC CHANGE BP 385 EP 405 PY 1992 PD AUG VL 21 IS 4 GA JF464 UT ISI:A1992JF46400004 ER PT J AU Kont, A Jaagus, J Aunap, R TI Climate change scenarios and the effect of sea-level rise for Estonia SO GLOBAL AND PLANETARY CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 Inst Ecol, Tartu Dept, EE-51005 Tartu, Estonia. Univ Tartu, Dept Geog, EE-51014 Tartu, Estonia. RP Kont, A, Inst Ecol, Tartu Dept, Lai 40, EE-51005 Tartu, Estonia. AB Climate warming due to the enhanced greenhouse effect is expected to have a significant impact on natural environment and human activity in high latitudes. Mostly, it should have a positive effect on human activity. The main threats in Estonia that could be connected with sea-level rise are the flooding of coastal areas, erosion of sandy beaches and the destruction of harbour constructions. Possible climate change and its negative impacts in the coastal regions of Estonia are estimated in this paper. Climate change scenarios for Estonia were generated using a Model for the Assessment of Greenhouse-gas Induced Climate Change (MAGICC) and a regional climate change database-SCENanario GENerator (SCENGEN). Three alternative emission scenarios were combined with data from 14 general circulation model experiments. Climate change scenarios for the year 2100 indicate a significant increase in air temperature (by 2.3-4.5 degreesC) and precipitation (by 5-30%) in Estonia. The highest increase is expected to take place during winter and the lowest increase in summer. Due to a long coastline (3794 km) and extensive low-lying coastal areas, global climate change through sea-level rise will strongly affect the territory of Estonia. A number of valuable natural ecosystems will be in danger. These include both marine and terrestrial systems containing rare plant communities and suitable breeding places for birds. Most sandy beaches high in recreational value will disappear. However, isostatic land uplift and the location of coastal settlements at a distance from the present coastline reduce the rate of risk. Seven case study areas characterising all the shore types of Estonia have been selected for sea-level rise vulnerability and adaptation assessment. Results and estimates of vulnerability to 1.0-m sea-level rise by 2100 are presented in this paper. This is the maximum scenario according to which the actually estimated relative sea-level rise would vary from 0.9 m (SW Estonia) to 0.7 m on the north-western coast due to different velocities of land uplift in the studied areas. The longest coastline section recession (6.4 km) would occur on the western coast of the mainland where extensive areas of reed bed and flooded meadows would relocate landwards or disappear. Possible damages in Tallinn, the capital city, would be the greatest compared to the other study areas. The greatest threat to the environment of the Gulf of Finland and the whole Baltic Sea is the dumping site of the former uranium enrichment plant in Sillamae which is situated very close to the coastline and can be easily influenced during storms. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V All rights reserved. CR BERNIOFF R, 1996, VULNERABILITY ADAPTA BRUUN P, 1962, J WATERWAYS HARBORS, V88, P117 CARTER TR, 1996, AGR FOOD SCI FINLAND, V5, P235 HANDS EB, 1983, HDB COASTAL PROCESSE, P167 HOUGHTON JT, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, P363 HULME M, 1995, ENERG POLICY, V23, P347 INGELOG T, 1993, RED DATA BOOK BALT 1, P95 JAAGUS J, 1996, ESTONIA SYSTEM GLOBA, V4, P35 JOHANNESSON T, 1995, CLIMATE RES, V5, P181 KEEVALLIK S, 1998, CLIMATE CHANGE STUDI, P1 KONT A, 1996, ESTONIA SYSTEM GLOBA, V4, P104 KONT A, 1996, VULNERABILITY ADAPTA, P249 KONT A, 1997, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V36, P175 LEGGETT J, 1992, CLIMATE CHANGE 1992, P75 MALKKI P, 1985, FINNISH MARINE RES, V252 MIMURA N, 1999, CLIMATIC RES, V27, P137 NICHOLLS RJ, 1995, J COASTAL RES, V14, P26 NICHOLLS RJ, 1998, CLIMATE RES, V11, P5 ORVIKU K, 1960, GEOLOGICAL DATA NEOT, P120 ORVIKU K, 1992, THESIS TARTU U TARTU, P20 PELTIER WR, 1999, GLOBAL PLANET CHANGE, V20, P93 PUNNING JM, 1996, ESTONIA SYSTEM GLOBA, V4, P75 RAUKAS A, 1994, ECOLOGY, V43, P81 ROTMANS J, 1994, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V4, P97 SMITH JB, 1998, HDB METHODS CLIMATE, CH3 VALLNER L, 1988, J GEODYN, V9, P215 WIGLEY TML, 1992, NATURE, V357, P293 YAKOVLEV NV, 1989, VYSSHAYA GEODEZIYA YAKUBOVSKY O, 1973, RECENT CRUSTAL MOVEM, V5, P302 ZENKOVITCH VP, 1975, PROCESS COASTAL DEV ZERBINI S, 1996, GLOBAL PLANET CHANGE, V14, P1 NR 31 TC 0 J9 GLOBAL PLANET CHANGE BP 1 EP 15 PY 2003 PD MAR VL 36 IS 1-2 GA 657KT UT ISI:000181665900001 ER PT J AU Berardi, G TI Schools, settlement, and sanitation in Alaska Native villages SO ETHNOHISTORY LA English DT Review C1 Western Washington Univ, Bellingham, WA 98225 USA. RP Berardi, G, Western Washington Univ, Bellingham, WA 98225 USA. AB The effective adaptation to a harsh and seasonal environment represented by the mobility of traditional Alaska Native communities has been undermined and replaced with the "persistent village." Traditional settlement sites typically were selected for their access to food and other subsistence resources. Early correspondence and reports from the federal Bureau of Education illustrate the important role that schools often played in the consolidation of Native populations. In response to the establishment of schools, among several other influences, permanent villages developed and increased in size. Providing sanitation services was considered by educators to be a central part of their broad mission to improve the life of the Native population, and sanitation was a major focus of teachers' and administrators' activities. However, many of the village sites that had been suitable for temporary or seasonal use by a relatively small population were not well suited-due to geographic considerations such as soils, topography, or remote location-to adequate sanitation for a year-round, larger population. As schools contributed to the consolidation of settlements, they helped situate today's remote Alaska villages that now face numerous economic, social, and political challenges, including providing reliable and affordable sanitation. 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Minist Ressources Nat & Faune Quebec, Direct Rech Forestiere, Ste Foy, PQ G1P 3W8, Canada. RP Beaulieu, J, Canadian Forestry Serv, Nat Resources Canada, Laurentian Forestry Ctr, 1055 PEPS,POB 3800, Ste Foy, PQ G1V 4C7, Canada. AB We propose a methodology combining a biophysical site index model and a seed source transfer model based on both temperature and precipitation to estimate white spruce plantation yield under present and future global warming conditions. The biophysical site index model predicts dominant height at 25 years, which is further used to estimate plantation yield using yield tables. The transfer model shows that, on average, seed sources are best adapted to the temperature conditions where they presently grow, and give maximum yield under these conditions. However, this model also shows that transfer of seed sources to drier sites could improve plantation yield. To predict site index values under climate change conditions, values obtained from the biophysical site index model are corrected by a factor estimated using the seed source transfer model. Our simulation results predict that global warming should favour a slight increase in white spruce plantation yield in southern Quebec. However, one cannot expect to obtain similar yields from a seed source rapidly exposed to warmer conditions compared with a seed source that is presently growing under climatic conditions to which it has become adapted. It would take several generations (adaptation lag) for a seed source to adapt to warmer conditions. We believe that the method we propose will be helpful in identifying the most productive seed source to be used at any given location in the province, and in revising seed source transfer rules. CR ANDALO C, 2005, FOREST ECOL MANAG, V205, P169 BAWA KS, 1998, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V39, P473 BAZZAZ FA, 1995, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V92, P8161 BEAULIEU J, 2001, NAT CAN, V125, P193 BEAULIEU J, 2004, CAN J FOREST RES, V34, P531 BOLGHARI HA, 1984, MEMOIRE RECHERCHE FO, V79 CARTER KK, 1996, CAN J FOREST RES, V26, P1089 HAMRICK JL, 1992, NEW FOREST, V6, P95 LI P, 1997, CAN J FOREST RES, V27, P189 LYNCH M, 1998, GENETICS ANAL QUANTI MAKINEN H, 2000, CAN J FOREST RES, V30, P769 MASSE L, 1999, PRODUCTION MAT AMELI, P117 MATYAS C, 1996, EUPHYTICA, V92, P45 MORGENSTERN EK, 1996, GEOGRAPHIC VARIATION NANSON A, 2004, GENETIQUE AMELIORATI REGNIERE J, 1996, ENVIRON ENTOMOL, V25, P869 REHFELDT GE, 1999, ECOL MONOGR, V69, P375 TUHKANEN S, 1980, ACTA PHYTOGEOGRAPHIC, V67, P1 UNG CH, 2001, FOREST SCI, V47, P83 NR 19 TC 0 J9 FOREST CHRON BP 704 EP 709 PY 2005 PD SEP-OCT VL 81 IS 5 GA 979VW UT ISI:000232974100031 ER PT J AU Ogunseitan, OA TI Framing environmental change in Africa: cross-scale institutional constraints on progressing from rhetoric to action against vulnerability SO GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS LA English DT Article C1 Univ Calif Irvine, Sch Social Ecol, Dept Environm Anal & Design, Irvine, CA 92697 USA. RP Ogunseitan, OA, Univ Calif Irvine, Sch Social Ecol, Dept Environm Anal & Design, Irvine, CA 92697 USA. AB The reconciliation of national development plans with global priority to mitigate environmental change remains an intractable policy controversy. In Africa, its resolution requires integrating local knowledge into impact assessments without compromising the scientific integrity of the assessment process. This requires better understanding of the communication pathways involved in progressing from frame construction to political action on various environmental issues. The impacts of environmental factors on human health are a common concern in Africa, and it is examined here as a platform for negotiating controversies surrounding the arrogation of global support for local assessments of vulnerability and mitigation. The study focused on the particularities of projected impacts of climate change, and specifically on considerations of the health sector within the context of multivalent international agreements to conduct and use environmental assessments. The analysis addresses limitations of cross-scale communication nodes that are embedded in boundary institutions such as the Country Study Program which is hosted by industrialized nations. The translation of rhetoric into action frames through dynamic vulnerability assessments and critical frame reflection can equally engage indigenous and aided capacity for adapting to environmental change. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *GLOB ENV FAC, 2000, GEF PROGR APPR CRIT *GTZ, 2000, GERM COOP DEV COUNTR *INT I TROP AGR, 2000, I INF WATSON RT, 1998, REGIONAL IMPACTS CLI, V1, P1 *IVM, 2002, NETH CLIM CHANG STUD *UN DEV PROGR GLOB, 1999, CAP DEV IN UNDP GEF *UN DEV PROGR, 1999, HUM DEV REP *UN, 1992, FRAM CONV CLIM CHANG *US COUNTR STUD PR, 1999, CLIM CHANG MIT VULN *WHO, 1990, POT HLTH EFF CLIM CH *WHO, 1997, ROLL BACK MAL IN *WHO, 1999, HDB LEG HIV AIDS LAW *WORLD MET ORG, 1999, WEATH CLIM HLTH ADEGBULUGBE AO, 1997, GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANG, P221 ADGER WN, 2001, DEV CHANGE, V32, P681 AGARWAC A, 1990, AMBIO, V19, P94 AGARWAL A, 1991, GLOBAL WARMING UNEQU AKARAPHANTH R, 1999, PHOTODERMATOL PHOTO, V15, P28 APUULI B, 2000, ENVIRON MONIT ASSESS, V61, P145 BENIOFF R, 1996, VULNERABILITY ADAPTA CARR S, 1996, J COMMONW COMP POLIT, V34, P143 CASH DW, 2000, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V10, P109 CLARK WC, 1987, FORECASTING SOCIAL N, P337 COHEN J, 2000, SCIENCE, V288, P590 COOPER RS, 1998, LANCET, V351, P208 CRONON W, 1992, J AM HIST, V78, P1347 DIXON RK, 1996, VULNERABILITY A, V6, P1 FAIRHEAD J, 1996, LIE LAND CHALLENGING FEENSTRA J, 1998, HDB METHODS CLIMATE GLANTZ MH, 2001, REDUCING IMPACT ENV GUILL S, 2000, COMMUNICATION 0405 HERBERLEIN TA, 1977, J SOC ISSUES, V33, P207 HOMERDIXON TF, 1990, 4 AM AC ARTS SCI INT JAEGER J, 2000, LEARNING MANAGE GLOB, CH21 JASANOFF S, 1996, EARTHLY GOODS ENV CH, P173 KANDLIKA M, 1997, E9708 KENN SCH GOV H KATES RW, 1995, 27 ICSUSCOPE KEMPTON W, 1991, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V1, P183 LONG M, 1997, E9709 KENN SCH GOV H LUCAS A, 1998, LANCET, V351, P743 MACLEAN DE, 1990, VALUING HLTH RISKS C MAGADZA CHD, 2000, ENVIRON MONIT ASSESS, V61, P193 MARTENS P, 2000, UNPUB MALARIA MOVE H MCMICHAEL AJ, 2000, ENVIRON MONIT ASSESS, V61, P49 MENDELSOHN R, 1999, IMPACT CLIMATE CHANG MILLER C, 1998, E9815 ENRP HARV U KE MURRAY CJL, 1996, GLOBAL BURDEN DIS CO NABARRO D, 1999, US C NOV NWAORGU O, 2000, MALSUM NEWS, V1, P1 PFAFF A, 1999, NATURE, V397, P645 PITTOCK AB, 2000, ENVIRON MONIT ASSESS, V61, P9 POULOS C, 2000, ENVIRON SCI TECHNOL, V34, P1445 REDCLIFT M, 1998, INT SOCIOL, V13, P499 RICH B, 1994, MORTGAGING EARTH WOR SACHS JD, 2000, WHAT S8 YEAR COULD D SCHON DA, 1994, FRAME REFLECTION BAS, P3 SHUE H, 1999, INT AFF, V75, P531 SMITH JB, 1996, VULNERABILITY ADAPTA SNOW DA, 1992, FRONTIERS SOCIAL MOV STERN PC, 1992, GLOBAL ENV CHANGE UN TURNER BL, 1990, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V1, P14 UMOLU JE, 1994, GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANG USHER P, 2000, ENVIRON MONIT ASSESS, V61, P37 WALLACE BM, 1992, SCIENCE, V257, P1211 WATSON RT, 1998, REGIONAL IMPACTS CLI, V1, P1 WATTS MJ, 1987, SILENT VIOLENCE FOOD WILSON ME, 1994, ANN NY ACAD SCI, V740, P1 WITTE K, 2000, HEALTH EDUC BEHAV, V27, P608 NR 68 TC 0 J9 GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANGE BP 101 EP 111 PY 2003 PD JUL VL 13 IS 2 GA 709QG UT ISI:000184635400003 ER PT J AU OBrien, KL Eriksen, S Sygna, L Naess, LO TI Questioning complacency: Climate change impacts, vulnerability, and adaptation in Norway SO AMBIO LA English DT Article C1 Univ Oslo, Dept Sociol & Human Geog, N-0317 Oslo, Norway. CICERO, N-0318 Oslo, Norway. RP OBrien, KL, Univ Oslo, Dept Sociol & Human Geog, POB 1096 Blindern, N-0317 Oslo, Norway. AB Most European assessments of climate change impacts have been carried out on sectors and ecosystems, providing a narrow understanding of what climate change really means for society. Furthermore, the main focus has been on technological adaptations, with less attention paid to the process of climate change adaptation. In this article, we present and analyze findings from recent studies on climate change impacts, vulnerability, and adaptation in Norway, with the aim of identifying the wider social impacts of climate change. Three main lessons can be drawn. First, the potential thresholds and indirect effects may be more important than the direct, sectoral effects. Second, highly sensitive sectors, regions, and communities combine with differential social vulnerability to create both winners and losers. Third, high national levels of adaptive capacity mask the barriers and constraints to adaptation, particularly among those who are most vulnerable to climate change. Based on these results, we question complacency in Norway and other European countries regarding climate change impacts and adaptation. We argue that greater attention needs to be placed on the social context of climate change impacts and on the processes shaping vulnerability and adaptation. CR 2000, SNAP SHOT ANAL MARIT *CICERO, CLIM CHANG VULN NORW *EEA, 1996, CLIM CHANG EUR UN *EEA, 2003, 10 EUR ENV AG *MIN ENV, 1991, GREENH EFF IMP MEAS *MIN ENV, 2001, 54 MIN ENV *MIN TRAD IND MIN, 2002, RISK VULN AN SUPPL G *NAT OFF BUILD TEC, 1993, 1992 HURR DAM BUILD *OECD, 2004, EC SURV NORW 2004 EC AAHEIM A, 2004, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V14, P147 AALL C, 2003, 303 W NORW RES I AALL C, 2004, TOURISM RECREATION C AANDAHL G, 2004, UNPUB COSTS EXTREME ANDERSEN A, 2003, TIDSSKRIFT VELFERDSF, V6, P89 ASKILDSEN T, 2004, EXTREME WEATHER EVEN AUNAN K, 2000, P SURVAS WORSHOP WOR BENESTAD RE, 2002, CLIMATE RES, V21, P105 BJORBAEK G, 2000, SNO SKI, V4, P10 BURTON I, 2002, CLIM POLICY, V2, P145 CAVAN G, 2004, UKCIP ADAPTATION WIZ CUTTER SL, 2003, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V93, P1 DICKEN P, 2003, GLBOAL SHIFT RESHAPI DOWNING TE, 2001, UNEP POLICY SERIES EIKENAES O, 2000, HYDRA END PROJECT RE FEENSTRA JF, 1998, HDB METHODS CLIMATE FISCHER G, 2001, GLOBAL AGROECOLOGICA GAASLAND I, 2004, CAN WARMER CLIMATE S GJONNES K, 1998, ROLE FREE MARKET INT, P13 HAGLEROD A, 1990, CONSEQUENCES INCREAS HANSSENBAUER I, 2003, CLIMATE RES, V25, P15 HESSEN DO, 1993, IMPACTS CLIMATE CHAN, P84 HULME M, 1999, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHA S, V9, S3 HULME M, 1999, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHA S, V9, S3 HYLME M, 2002, CLIMATE CHANGE SCENA IVERSEN T, 2003, CICERONE, V51, P20 JERVELL AM, 2003, 200319 NORW AGR EC R JONES R, 2003, OECD WORKSH BEN CLIM JONES RN, 2003, ADAPTATION POLICY FR KOENIG U, 1997, J SUSTAINABLE TOURIS, V5, P46 KUNDZEWICZ ZW, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 LEGENDRE L, 2002, ECOL RES, V17, P143 LISO KR, 2003, BUILD RES INF, V31, P200 LUNDEKVAM HE, 2003, ENVIRON SCI POLICY, V6, P57 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 MITCHELL JFB, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, P695 NAESS LO, 2005, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V15, P125 NESTEN NK, 2001, OVERVIEW NORWEGIAN A OBRIEN KL, 2004, CLIMATE VULNERABILIT OBRIEN KL, 2004, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V64, P193 OBRIEN KL, 2000, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V10, P221 OBRIEN KL, 2003, PLAN TIDSKRIFT SAMFU, V5, P12 OTTERSEN G, 2001, LIMNOL OCEANOGR, V46, P1774 OYGARDEN L, 2003, CATENA, V50, P217 PARRY ML, 2000, ASSESSMENT POTENTIAL REIERTSEN I, 2002, C CLIM IMP AD 25 NOV SCHAR C, 2004, NATURE, V427, P332 SCHROTER D, 2004, GLOBAL CHANGE VULNER TEIGLAND J, 2002, SOCIO EC IMPACTS EXT TEIGLAND J, 2002, WEATHER CLIMATE AFFE TEIGLAND J, 2003, CLIMATE CHANGE NORWE TORVANGER AM, 2003, CLIMATE C HANGE IMPA TURNE RBL, 2003, P NAT AC SCI US AM, P8074 VOIGT T, 2004, CLIMATE CHANGE IMPAC WATTS M, 1997, GLOBALISING FOOD AGR WILLOWS R, 2003, CLIMATE ADAPTATION R YOHE GW, 2002, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V12, P25 NR 66 TC 0 J9 AMBIO BP 50 EP 56 PY 2006 PD MAR VL 35 IS 2 GA 035WM UT ISI:000237032400002 ER PT J AU YARNAL, B TI SOCIOECONOMIC RESTRUCTURING AND VULNERABILITY TO ENVIRONMENTAL HAZARDS IN BULGARIA SO DISASTERS LA English DT Article RP YARNAL, B, PENN STATE UNIV,DEPT GEOG,302 WALKER BLDG,UNIV PK,PA 16802. AB The restructuring of Bulgaria's social, economic and political system includes a change in the way it handles disaster preparation and response. During the Cold War, the entire country drilled regularly in civil defense, which was under the control of the army. A recent decree and pending legislation transfers civil defense from the military to the Council of Ministers, which has developed a national plan for defense against environmental hazards, This research shows that the transformation from command to market economy, plus the country's severe economic crisis, is degrading existing civil defense structures, preventing the implementation of the proposed new organization and increasing the population's vulnerability to hazards. Case studies of a small city, a petrochemical complex, coastal-zone hazards management, earthquake hazards regulation and the Kozloduy nuclear facility demonstrate Bulgaria's increasing vulnerability to environmental hazards. CR 1993, HOURS BBN, V3, P5 BEGG R, UNPUB FREE CLEAN ENV BURTON I, 1978, ENV HAZARD, V1, P1 DOWNING TE, 1991, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V1, P365 FRIEDBERG J, UNPUB FREE CLEAN ENV KOULOV B, UNPUB FREE CLEAN ENV LIVERMAN DM, 1993, RISK ASSESSMENT GLOB MIKHOVA D, 1991, DEC IMP POL EC RESTR MORREN GEB, 1991, INTERPRETATIONS CALA, P284 PASKALEVA K, UNPUB FREE CLEAN ENV PAVLINEK P, UNPUB FREE CLEAN ENV SAYER A, 1985, POLITICS METHOD CONT, P147 SCHOENBERGER E, 1991, PROF GEOGR, V43, P180 SHAPIRA P, 1991, COMMUNICATION 0616 SMITH K, 1992, ENV HAZARDS ASSESSIN TIMMERMAN P, 1981, ENV MONOGRAPH, V1, P1 WALKER GP, 1991, LAND USE POLICY JUL, P227 YARNAL B, UNPUB FREE CLEAN ENV YARNAL B, 1992, UNPUB EFFECT EC POLI, V2 YARNAL B, 1994, IN PRESS GLOBAL ENV YARNAL B, 1994, LAND USE POLICY, V11, P67 NR 21 TC 5 J9 DISASTERS BP 95 EP 106 PY 1994 PD JUN VL 18 IS 2 GA NP448 UT ISI:A1994NP44800001 ER PT J AU Aaheim, A Schjolden, A TI An approach to utilise climate change impacts studies in national assessments SO GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS LA English DT Article C1 Univ Oslo, CICERO, N-0318 Oslo, Norway. RP Aaheim, A, Univ Oslo, CICERO, POB 1129 Blindern, N-0318 Oslo, Norway. AB This paper proposes methods to assess the socioeconomic impacts of climate change within the framework of national accounting and macroeconomic models. The methods are illustrated with examples. The framework of national accounting serves several important purposes in the assessment of the national impacts of climate change. First, an accounting system requires that assumptions and output from independent sector studies of impacts be standardised and made comparable. Second, it serves as a checkpoint for the availability and quality of information about impacts of climate change. Third, it provides a starting point for more extensive macroeconomic analysis of impacts. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 *IPCC, 2001, CLIM CHANG 2001 SCI *NILF, 1990, KONS JORDBR OKT KLIM AAHEIM HA, 1994, REPORTS STAT NORWAY, V9414 AAHEIM HA, 2003, SOSIOOKONOMISKE VIRK, P5 ASHEIM GB, 1994, SCAND J ECON, V96, P257 BARTELMAS P, 1994, WORKING PAPER SERIES, V1 BARTSCH U, 2000, FOSSIL FUELS CHANGIN BREKKE KA, 1994, SCAND J ECON, V96, P241 FANKHAUSER S, 1995, VALUING CLIMATE CHAN FORLAND EJ, 1999, FRAMTIDIG KLIMAUTVIK LEONTIEF W, 1941, STRUCTURE AM EC 1919 LEONTIEF W, 1987, NEW PALGRAVE DICT EC, V2 NORDHAUS WD, 1993, RESOUR ENERGY ECON, V15, P27 OBRIEN KL, 2003, UNPUB VULNERABLE RES PITTOCK AB, 2001, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V53, P393 SEN AK, 1970, COLLECTIVE CHOICE SO SKANBERG K, 2001, 76 NAT I EC RES KONJ TOL RSJ, 1995, ENVIRON RESOUR ECON, V5, P353 TOL RSJ, 2001, ENVIRON RESOUR ECON, V21, P47 WEITZMAN ML, 1976, Q J ECON, V90, P156 NR 21 TC 0 J9 GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANGE BP 147 EP 160 PY 2004 PD JUL VL 14 IS 2 GA 830FP UT ISI:000222107400005 ER PT J AU Pachauri, RK TI Climate change and its implications for development: The role of IPCC assessments SO IDS BULLETIN-INSTITUTE OF DEVELOPMENT STUDIES LA English DT Article AB The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Reports show that climate change is likely to have significant developmental consequences for all, but developing countries and the poor persons within all countries will be disproportionately affected, including impacts on agriculture, health and water. As the largest source of employment in most developing countries, impacts on agriculture and on food security are especially critical. Altered precipitation rates will also result in more frequent droughts and floods in large parts of Asia and could impact adversely on the achievements of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) on water and sanitation, which are linked to other MDGs. Vulnerability of agriculture and options for adaptation have only recently been studied in India in detail. These indicate serious problems for India, as there are limited opportunities for changes in crops and other factors, such as unfavourable global trading regimes, limit adaptive capacity. CR *INT PAN CLIM CHAN, 2001, 3 ASS REP *IPCC, 1996, CLIM CHAN IPCC 1990 *IPCC, 1996, SCI CLIM CHANG CONTR *IPCC, 2001, SYNTH REP 3 ASS CLIM *TERI, 2003, COP GLOB CHANG VULN NR 5 TC 0 J9 IDS BULL-INST DEVELOP STUD BP 11 EP + PY 2004 PD JUL VL 35 IS 3 GA 844HK UT ISI:000223148700002 ER PT J AU Scott, D Lemieux, C TI Climate change and protected area policy and planning in Canada SO FORESTRY CHRONICLE LA English DT Article C1 Univ Waterloo, Dept Geog, Waterloo, ON N2L 3G1, Canada. RP Scott, D, Univ Waterloo, Dept Geog, ES 1,Room 207, Waterloo, ON N2L 3G1, Canada. AB Protected areas arc the most common and most important strategy for biodiversity conservation and are called for under the United Nations' Convention on Biological Diversity. However, most protected areas have been designed to represent (and in theory protect for perpetuity) specific natural features, species and ecological communities in-situ, and have not taken into account potential shifts in ecosystem distribution and composition that could be induced by global climatic change. This paper provides an overview of the policy and planning implications of climate change for protected areas in Canada, summarizes a portfolio of climate change adaptation options that have been discussed in the conservation literature and by conservation professionals and provides a perspective on what is needed for the conservation community in Canada to move forward on responding to the threat posed by climate change. 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Boston Univ, Dept Geog, Boston, MA 02215 USA. RP Grothmann, T, Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res, Fept Global Change & Social Syst, POB 60 12 03, D-14412 Potsdam, Germany. AB Adaptation has emerged as an important area of research and assessment among climate change scientists. Most scholarly work has identified resource constraints as being the most significant determinants of adaptation. However, empirical research on adaptation has so far mostly not addressed the importance of measurable and alterable psychological factors in determining adaptation. Drawing from the literature in psychology and behavioural economics, we develop a socio-cognitive Model of Private Proactive Adaptation to Climate Change (MPPACC). MPPACC separates out the psychological steps to taking action in response to perception, and allows one to see where the most important bottlenecks occur-including risk perception and perceived adaptive capacity, a factor largely neglected in previous climate change research. We then examine two case studies-one from urban Germany and one from rural Zimbabwe-to explore the validity of MPPACC to explaining adaptation. In the German study, we find that MPPACC provides better statistical power than traditional socio-economic models. In the Zimbabwean case study, we find a qualitative match between MPPACC and adaptive behaviour. Finally, we discuss the important implications of our findings both on vulnerability and adaptation assessments, and on efforts to promote adaptation through outside intervention. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 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1980, J PERS SOC PSYCHOL, V39, P806 WEINSTEIN ND, 1983, HEALTH PSYCHOL, V2, P11 WEINSTEIN ND, 1987, J BEHAV MED, V10, P481 WEINSTEIN ND, 1989, PSYCHOL BULL, V105, P31 WILBANKS TJ, 2003, CLIM POLICY, S147 WORTMAN C, 1976, NEW DIRECTIONS ATTRI, V1, P19 YOHE GW, 1996, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V32, P387 YOHE GW, 2002, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V12, P25 ZIERVOGEL G, 2004, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V65, P73 ZIERVOGEL G, 2004, GEOGR J 1, V170, P6 NR 128 TC 3 J9 GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANGE BP 199 EP 213 PY 2005 PD OCT VL 15 IS 3 GA 960JC UT ISI:000231585500004 ER PT J AU Butt, TA McCarl, BA Angerer, J Dyke, PT Stuth, JW TI The economic and food security implications of climate change in Mali SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 Texas A&M Univ, Dept Agr Econ, College Stn, TX 77843 USA. Texas A&M Univ, Dept Rangeland Ecol & Management, College Stn, TX 77843 USA. Texas A&M Univ, Blackland Res & Extens Ctr, Temple, TX 76502 USA. RP Butt, TA, Texas A&M Univ, Dept Agr Econ, College Stn, TX 77843 USA. AB The study focuses on economic and food security implications of projected climate change on Malian agriculture sector. Climate change projections made by two global circulation models are considered. The analysis focuses on the effects on crops, forages, and livestock and the resultant effects on sectoral economics and risk of hunger in Mali. Results show that under climate change, crop yield changes are in the range of minus 17% to plus 6% at national level. Simultaneously, forage yields fall by 5 to 36% and livestock animal weights are reduced by 14 to 16%. The resultant economic losses range between 70 to $142 million, with producers gaining, but consumers losing. The percentage of population found to be at risk of hunger rises from a current estimate of 34% to an after climate change level of 64% to 72%. A number of policy and land management strategies can be employed to mitigate the effects of climate change. In particular, we investigate the development of heat resistant cultivars, the adoption of existing improved cultivars, migration of cropping pattern, and expansion of cropland finding that they effectively reduce climate change impacts lowering the risk of hunger to as low as 28%. 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Ctr Marine & Atmospher Sci, D-20146 Hamburg, Germany. Vrije Univ Amsterdam, Inst Environm Studies, NL-1081 HV Amsterdam, Netherlands. Carnegie Mellon Univ, Pittsburgh, PA 15213 USA. RP Tol, RSJ, Univ Hamburg, Res Unit Sustainabil & Global Change, Bundesstr 55, D-20146 Hamburg, Germany. AB The European Commission as a whole and a number of its Member States individually have adopted a stringent long-term target for climate policy, namely that the global mean temperature should not rise more than 2 degrees C above pre-industrial times. This target is supported by rather thin arguments, based on inadequate methods, sloppy reasoning, and selective citation from a very narrow set of studies. In the scientific literature on "dangerous interference with the climate system", most studies discuss either methodological issues, or carefully lay out the arguments for or against a particular target. These studies do not make specific recommendations, with the exception of cost-benefit analyses, which unanimously argue for less stringent policy targets. However, there are also a few "scientific" studies that recommend a target without supporting argumentation. Overall, the 2 degrees C target of the EU seems unfounded. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 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Tufts Univ, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Medford, MA 02155 USA. Binary Syst Software, Newton, MA 02465 USA. RP Amato, AD, Univ Maryland, Environm Policy Program, Sch Publ Policy, 3139 Munching Hall, College Pk, MD 20742 USA. AB Climate is a major determinant of energy demand. Changes in climate may alter energy demand as well as energy demand patterns. This study investigates the implications of climate change for energy demand under the hypothesis that impacts are scale dependent due to region-specific climatic variables, infrastructure, socioeconomic, and energy use profiles. In this analysis we explore regional energy demand responses to climate change by assessing temperature-sensitive energy demand in the Commonwealth of Massachusetts. The study employs a two-step estimation and modeling procedure. The first step evaluates the historic temperature sensitivity of residential and commercial demand for electricity and heating fuels, using a degree-day methodology. We find that when controlling for socioeconomic factors, degree-day variables have significant explanatory power in describing historic changes in residential and commercial energy demands. In the second step, we assess potential future energy demand responses to scenarios of climate change. Model results are based on alternative climate scenarios that were specifically derived for the region on the basis of local climatological data, coupled with regional information from available global climate models. We find notable changes with respect to overall energy consumption by, and energy mix of the residential and commercial sectors in the region. On the basis of our findings, we identify several methodological issues relevant to the development of climate change impact assessments of energy demand. 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SUNY Binghamton, Binghamton, NY 13902 USA. Univ N Carolina, Chapel Hill, NC USA. Ohio State Univ, Columbus, OH 43210 USA. RP Gray, SJ, Univ Kansas, Human Biol Program, Lawrence, KS 66045 USA. AB Since the late 1970s, cattle raiding with automatic weapons has escalated among nomadic herding societies in northern East Africa. We examine the impact of AK-47 raiding on the adaptability of Karimojong agropastoralists in northern Uganda. Most notably, raiding is linked to a loss of population resilience in Karamoja, measured in increased mortality of young children and of adult males in their prime reproductive years and decreased female fertility. AK-47 raiding has acted both directly and indirectly as a Darwinian stressor in this population, compromising long-standing adaptive strategies and intensifying selection pressure. We briefly discuss similar effects of recently altered patterns of raiding among related Turkana pastoralists in Kenya. 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V21, P341 ROGERS A, 1988, AM ANTHROPOL, V90, P813 RUTISHAUSER IHE, 1969, BR J NUTR, V23, P1 SELLEN DW, 1999, HUM NATURE-INT BIOS, V10, P329 SELLEN DW, 1999, J BIOSOC SCI, V31, P1 SELLEN DW, 2000, ADAPTATION HUMAN BEH, P87 SELLEN DW, 2003, IN PRESS HUMAN ECOLO SHELLDUNCAN B, 1999, TURKANA HERDERS DRY, P207 SHELLEY JK, 1985, THESIS U N CAROLINA SIEFF DF, 1999, AGR SYST, V59, P1 SUNDAL M, 2002, THESIS U KANSAS LAWR TALLE A, 1988, WOMEN LOSS CHANGES M TANNER JM, 1986, HUMAN GROWTH, V1, P167 THOMAS EM, 1965, WARRIOR HERDSMEN TURTON D, 1994, ETHNICITY CONFLICT H, P15 VANVALEN L, 1973, EVOL THEORY, V1, P1 WHYTE SR, 1991, CHANGING UGANDA DILE, P130 WIEBUSCH B, 2002, THESIS U KANSAS LAWR WILSON JG, 1962, E AFR AGR FORESTRY J, V27, P47 WILSON JG, 1985, CRISIS UGANDA BREAKD, P163 WOOD JW, 1994, DYNAMICS HUMAN REPRO WOODWARD P, 1991, CHANGING UGANDA, P178 NR 120 TC 1 J9 CURR ANTHROPOL BP S3 EP S30 PY 2003 PD DEC VL 44 GA 737JL UT ISI:000186226600002 ER PT J AU Cruz, REH Baltazar, EB Gomez, GM Lugo, EIJE TI Social adaptation - Ecotourism in the Lacandon forest SO ANNALS OF TOURISM RESEARCH LA English DT Article C1 El Colegio Frontera, San Cristobal, Chiapas, Mexico. RP Cruz, REH, El Colegio Frontera, Carretera Panamer & Per S-N,Barrio Maria Auxiliad, San Cristobal, Chiapas, Mexico. AB Social and economic adjustment processes were analyzed in relation to the introduction of ecotourism in a community of the Lacandon rainforest, Mexico. Data collection was achieved utilizing structured and semistructured interviews applied to a sample of members and employees belonging to an ecotourism organization. The establishment of this activity is the result of local and regional economic processes as well as environmental and cultural characteristics. Although it represents an alternative productive activity, it can lead to conflict within a rural community. This study contributes to the understanding of local adjustment processes related to ecotourism and provides evidence of household and community responses to new social and environmental conditions. CR *COPLADE, 1996, PROGR DES TUR CHIAP *INE SEMARNAP, 2000, PROGR MAN RES BIOSF *INEGI, 2000, SIST CONT 2000 *U AUT METR, 1976, GUIA MURD SIST DAT C BOO E, 1990, ECOTUROISM POTENTIAL, V2 BRANDON KE, 1992, WORLD DEV, V20, P557 BUTLER R, 1998, SUSTAINABLE TOURISM, P25 CEBALLOSLASCURA.H, 1998, ECOTURISMO NATURALEZ DALTABUIT G, 1992, MUJERES MAYAS TRABAJ DALTABUIT G, 2000, ECOTURISMO DESARROLL DEVOS J, 2002, TIERRA SEMBRAR SUENO ESCALONA H, 2001, TRADICION MERCADO, P71 GARCIA J, 1995, THESIS U NACL AUTONO GARCIA M, 2000, ANUARIO 1999, P183 GURRI F, 2001, AM J HUM BIOL, V3, P590 GURRI F, 2002, CULTURE AGR, V24, P41 HONEY M, 1999, ECOTOURISM SUSTAINAB HORWICH R, 1999, SELVA MAYA CONSERVAC, P391 MILNE S, 1998, SUSTAINABLE TOURISM, P35 MORAN E, 1990, ECOLOGIA HUMANA PUEB MORAN E, 2000, HUMAN ADAPTABILITY I NORRIS R, 1998, SELVA MAYA CONSERVAC, P391 PLACE S, 1998, SUSTAINABLE TOURISM, P25 SANDOVAL A, 2000, CIENCIA, V51, P12 SIMON J, 1997, ENDANGERED MEXICO EN SPROULE K, 1996, B SERIES YALE SCH FO, V99, P233 VASQUEZSANCHEZ MA, 1992, RES BIOSFERA MONTES, P287 WALLACE G, 1997, PRINCIPLED EVALUATIO WILLIAMS A, 1998, SUSTAINABLE TOURISM, P49 NR 29 TC 0 J9 ANN TOURISM RES BP 610 EP 627 PY 2005 PD JUL VL 32 IS 3 GA 956UF UT ISI:000231324600005 ER PT J AU Conde, C Liverman, DM Flores, M Ferrer, R Araujo, R Betancourt, E Villarreal, G Gay, C TI Vulnerability of rainfed maize crops in Mexico to climate change SO CLIMATE RESEARCH LA English DT Article C1 Univ Nacl Autonoma Mexico, Ctr Ciencias Atmosfera, Mexico City 04510, DF, Mexico. Univ Arizona, Latin Amer Area Ctr, Tucson, AZ 85721 USA. Inst Nacl Ecol, Unidad Cooperac & Convenios Int, Mexico City 01040, DF, Mexico. RP Conde, C, Univ Nacl Autonoma Mexico, Ctr Ciencias Atmosfera, Ciudad Univ,Circuito Exterior, Mexico City 04510, DF, Mexico. AB The impacts of a potential climate change on rainfed maize crops in Mexico are analyzed. For that purpose, baseline scenarios based on current climate conditions and their relation with maize crop development were created. Climate change scenarios were further developed and the crop vulnerability under each scenario was assessed. Two methods were used to quantify vulnerability. In the first place, maps describing the suitability for crop production according to climate conditions were produced. The differences between the baseline and the climate change scenarios allowed for estimating the area of the country likely to be positively or negatively affected. Secondly, the CERES-Maize model was applied to estimate rainfed maize crop yields at 7 sites in Mexico under the baseline and climate change scenarios. Adaptive measures were proposed and their feasibility was assessed on the basis of a simple cost-benefit analysis. CR *INEGI, 1994, EST UN MEX RES DEF 7 CONDE C, 1995, US COUNTRY STUDIES P, P101 MAGANA V, 1994, US COUNTRY STUDIES P, P45 ROSENZWEIG C, 1990, HDB INT CLIMATE CHAN NR 4 TC 4 J9 CLIMATE RES BP 17 EP 23 PY 1997 PD DEC 29 VL 9 IS 1-2 GA ZD200 UT ISI:000072661400004 ER PT J AU Klein, RJT Nicholls, RJ TI Assessment of coastal vulnerability to climate change SO AMBIO LA English DT Article C1 Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res, D-14412 Potsdam, Germany. Middlesex Univ, Sch Geog & Environm Management, Enfield EN3 4SF, Middx, England. RP Klein, RJT, Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res, POB 601203, D-14412 Potsdam, Germany. AB The UNEP Handbook on Methods for Climate Change Impact Assessment and Adaptation Strategies provides an elaboration of the IPCC Technical Guidelines for Assessing Climate Change Impacts and Adaptations. This paper presents the concepts and ideas that underpin the chapter Coastal Zones of the UNEP Handbook. Particular emphasis is given to the conceptual framework, which is centered around the concept of vulnerability. Further, the IPCC Common Methodology for Assessing Coastal Vulnerability to Sea-Level Rise is evaluated and compared with the Technical Guidelines. One notable difference between the 2 approaches concerns the use of scenarios. In the Common Methodology scenarios are prescribed, while the Technical Guidelines allow users maximum freedom in selecting and developing scenarios. Finally, the paper discusses 3 levels of increasingly complex assessment in coastal zones. As more experience is acquired, coastal databases improve and better analytical tools and techniques are developed, more comprehensive and integrated assessments will become feasible. CR 1994, WORLD COAST C NOORDW *COAST RES I MIN T, 1993, VULN ASS ACC SEA LEV *IPCC CZMS, 1992, GLOB CLIM CHANG RIS BEGON M, 1996, ECOLOGY INDIVIDUALS BIJLSMA L, 1996, IMPACTS ADAPTATIONS, P289 CARTER TR, 1994, TECHNICAL GUIDELINES CICINSAIN B, 1993, OCEAN COAST MANAGE, V21, P11 CICINSAIN B, 1997, INT WORKSH PLANN CLI, V1 FEENSTRA JF, 1998, HDB METHODS CLIMATE GORNITZ VM, 1994, J COAST RES SPECIAL, V12, P327 HANDMER JW, 1996, IND ENV CRISIS Q, V9, P482 HOUGHTON JT, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995 KAY RC, 1993, VULNERABILITY ASSESS, P213 KLEIN RJT, 1998, HDB METHODS CLIMATE LEATHERMAN SP, 1996, VULNERABILITY ADAPTA MCLEAN RF, 1993, VULNERABILITY ASSESS MILLIMAN JD, 1989, AMBIO, V18, P340 NICHOLLS RJ, 1995, GEOJOURNAL, V37, P369 NICHOLLS RJ, 1995, J COASTAL RES, V14, P26 PEERBOLTE EB, 1991, IMPACT SEA LEVEL RIS SMITH K, 1992, ENV HAZARDS ASSESSIN TIMMERMAN P, 1981, ENV MONOGRAPH, V1, P1 TOL RSJ, 1996, OCEAN COAST MANAGE, V32, P39 TSYBAN A, 1990, CLIMATE CHANGE IPCC TURNER RK, 1996, REV POTENTIAL EFFECT, P211 WARRICK RA, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, P359 WARRICK RA, 1996, IMPLICATIONS CLIMATE WIGLEY TML, 1995, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V22, P45 ZEIDLER RB, 1997, P 25 INT C COAST ENG, P4364 NR 29 TC 18 J9 AMBIO BP 182 EP 187 PY 1999 PD MAR VL 28 IS 2 GA 194ER UT ISI:000080179600014 ER PT J AU Ying, AW TI Impact of global climate change on China's water resources SO ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING AND ASSESSMENT LA English DT Article C1 Minist Water Resources, Water Informat Ctr, Beijing 100053, Peoples R China. RP Ying, AW, Minist Water Resources, Water Informat Ctr, Baiguang Rd, Beijing 100053, Peoples R China. AB It is indicated that up to the year 2030, the annual average temperatures in China will increase by 0.88 to 1.2 degrees C, with increments in the south less than in the north. Annual average precipitation would raise slightly, but the increment could be 4% in northeastern China. The increment of annual mean runoff could rise over 6% in the northeastern area, and decrease in the other regions 1.4 to 10.5%. The increased water shortage due to climate change could achieve 160 to 5090 million m(3) in some areas of China. Financial loss due to the lack of water could reach 1300 million yuan, and up to 4400 million yuan in serious drought years in the Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan area. CR CHEN Y, 1996, J HOHAI U, V22 GUO SL, 1995, IAHS PUBL, V231, P141 WANG JS, 1996, ADV WATER SCI, V7 YING AW, 1995, INT S ENV BIOM BEIJ NR 4 TC 0 J9 ENVIRON MONIT ASSESS BP 187 EP 191 PY 2000 PD MAR VL 61 IS 1 GA 300UB UT ISI:000086270100015 ER PT J AU Kennedy, DP TI Cognitive models of fertility decline in Oaxaca City, Mexico SO POPULATION AND ENVIRONMENT LA English DT Article C1 Univ N Carolina, Carolina Populat Ctr, Chapel Hill, NC 27516 USA. RP Kennedy, DP, Univ N Carolina, Carolina Populat Ctr, CB 8120,Univ Sq,123 W Franklin St, Chapel Hill, NC 27516 USA. AB This paper presents a systematic analysis of the "culture of natality." In the first section, I present an extended definition of culture informed by cognitive anthropology and evolutionary biology. I argue that culture is an adaptation and a virtual environment with which humans must interact in order to survive and reproduce in a given physical environment. in the second section, I present a qualitative and quantitative analysis of qualitative interview data collected in Oaxaca City, Mexico, on reproductive behavior. The analysis examines evidence of cultural differences and similarities. I conclude by discussing implications for a theory of fertility decline. CR *CONS NAC POBL OAX, 1993, OAX DEM AUNGER R, 1999, CURR ANTHROPOL S, V40, S93 BACHRACH CA, 1999, ADV POPULATION PSYCH, V3, P1 BARKOV JH, 1992, ADAPTED MIND BASU AM, 1998, METHODS USES ANTHR D BERNARD HR, 1996, CULTURLA ANTHR METHO, V8, P9 BERNARD HR, 1998, HDB METHODS CULTURAL, P595 BERNARD HR, 2002, RES METHODS ANTHR QU BOCK J, 1999, POPUL ENVIRON, V21, P193 BONGAARTS J, 1996, POPUL DEV REV, V22, P639 BOROFSKY R, 1994, ASSESSING CULTURAL A BOYD R, 1985, CULTURE EVOLUTIONARY BRADLEY C, 1997, AFRICAN FAMILIES CRI, P227 BROWN DE, 1991, HUMAN UNIVERSALS BRUMANN C, 1999, CURR ANTHROPOL S, V40, S1 BULATAO RA, 2001, GLOBAL FERTILITY T S, V27 CALDWELL JC, 1982, THEORY FERTILITY DEC CHASE PG, 1999, EVOLUTION CULTURE, P34 COHEN J, 1960, EDUC PSYCHOL MEAS, V20, P1 DANDRADE R, 1992, HUMAN MOTIVES CULTUR DANDRADE R, 1995, DEV COGNITIVE ANTHR DANIEL WW, 1990, APPL NONPARAMETRIC S DAWKINS R, 1976, SELFISH GENE DEWAAL F, 2001, APE SUSHI MASTER DIMAGGIO P, 1997, ANNU REV SOCIOL, V23, P263 DRESSLER WW, 2000, AM ANTHROPOL, V102, P244 DUNBAR R, 1999, EVOLUTION CULTURE IN DUNTEMAN GH, 1989, PRINCIPAL COMPONENTS, V69 DURHAM WH, 1991, COEVOLUTION GENES CU GLASER BG, 1967, DISCOVERY GROUNDED T GREENHALGH S, 1995, SITUATING FERTILITY, P3 GREENHALGH S, 1996, SITUATING FERTILITY HAMMEL EA, 1990, POPUL DEV REV, V16, P455 HAMMEL EA, 1995, SITUATING FERTILITY, P225 HANDWERKER WP, 1986, AM ANTHROPOL, V88, P400 HANDWERKER WP, 1986, CULTURE REPROD ANTHR HANDWERKER WP, 1986, CULTURE REPROD ANTHR, P1 HANDWERKER WP, 1989, AM ANTHROPOL, V91, P313 HANDWERKER WP, 1989, WOMENS POWER SOCIAL HANDWERKER WP, 1991, POPUL ENVIRON, V13, P55 HANDWERKER WP, 1997, CURR ANTHROPOL, V38, P869 HANDWERKER WP, 2002, AM ANTHROPOL, V104, P106 HARRIS M, 1987, DEATH SEX FERTILITY HARRIS M, 2001, CULTURAL MAT STRUGGL HILL K, 1999, ANNU REV ANTHROPOL, V28, P397 JOHNSON RA, 2002, APPL MULTIVARIATE ST KAPLAN H, 1996, YB PHYS ANTHR, V39, P1 KAPLAN HS, 2000, ADAPTATION HUMAN BEH, P283 KEMPTON W, 1995, ENV VALUES AM CULTUR KERTZER DI, 1995, SITUATING FERTILITY, P29 KERTZER DI, 1997, ANTHR DEMOGRAPHY NEW KRIPPENDORFF K, 1980, CONTENT ANAL KUZNAR L, 1997, RECLAIMING SCI ANTHR MASON K, 1987, POPUL DEV REV, V13, P611 MILLER GA, 1956, PSYCHOL REV, V63, P81 MURPHY AD, 1991, SOCIAL INEQUALITY OA POLLAK RA, 1993, POPUL DEV REV, V19, P467 POTTS R, 1998, EVOL ANTHROPOL, V7, P81 ROMNEY AK, 1986, AM ANTHROPOL, V88, P313 ROMNEY AK, 1999, CURR ANTHROPOL S, V40, S103 STRAUSS C, 1997, COGNITIVE THEORY CUL TOMASELLO M, 1999, ANNU REV ANTHROPOL, V28, P509 WATKINS SC, 1986, DECLINE FERTILITY EU, P420 WELLER SC, 1988, SYSTEMATIC DATA COLL, V10 WELLER SC, 2002, FIELD METHODS, V14, P6 NR 65 TC 0 J9 POP ENVIRON BP 243 EP 274 PY 2004 PD JAN VL 25 IS 3 GA 839TC UT ISI:000222806800004 ER PT J AU McLeman, R Smit, B TI Vulnerability to climate change hazards and risks: crop and flood insurance SO CANADIAN GEOGRAPHER-GEOGRAPHE CANADIEN LA English DT Article C1 Univ Guelph, Dept Geog, Guelph, ON N1G 2W1, Canada. RP McLeman, R, Univ Guelph, Dept Geog, Guelph, ON N1G 2W1, Canada. AB This paper reviews the widely used concepts of risk and vulnerability as they relate to climate and weather hazards, re-conceptualizes these terms in the context of climate change and illustrates this development using crop and flood insurance as examples. Government subsidization of insurance against risks associated with adverse climatic conditions and weather events, such as flood damage and crop loss, may lead to individual decisions that actually increase the susceptibility of people, property and economic activities to those risks. The processes that give rise to this phenomenon are important in understanding the vulnerability of human populations to climate change. In many regions, existing conditions that give rise to flooding or crop failure are likely to be exacerbated by climate change over coming decades. In the climate change field, vulnerability has been conceptualised as a function of exposure to risk and as an ability to adapt to the effects. In this context, crop and flood insurance are possible adaptive measures. This treatment of vulnerability compares with similar concepts in insurance and risk management whereby events that cause loss are known as perils, and physical conditions, such as climate change, that increase the likelihood of a peril occurring, are known as physical hazards. Human behaviour that increases the exposure of individuals to potential perils is known as morale hazard or moral hazard, depending on the intentions of the person. Vulnerability consequently becomes a function of hazard and responses taken to reduce risk. Examples of crop and flood insurance programs from Canada, New Zealand and the U.S. are used to show how subsidized insurance might create a morale hazard in addition to physical hazards such as short-term weather events and long-term climate change, resulting in a higher level of vulnerability than would otherwise exist. These findings demonstrate that human behaviour affects the formation of both exposure and adaptive capacity in the context of vulnerability to climate change. Responses taken to increase adaptive capacity may in some cases be offset by individual behaviour that increases exposure. CR BLAIKIE P, 1987, LAND DEGRADATION SOC BLANCHARDBOEHM RD, 2001, APPL GEOGR, V21, P199 BRADSHAW B, 1997, AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON, V64, P245 BRADSHAW B, 1998, NZ GEOGRAPHER, V54, P12 BROWNE MJ, 2000, J RISK UNCERTAINTY, V20, P291 BRYANT CR, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P181 BURBY RJ, 2001, ENV HAZARDS, V3, P111 BURTON I, 1978, ENV HAZARD, V1, P1 CLARK GE, 1998, MITIGATION ADAPTATIO, V3, P59 CLOKE P, 1996, SOCIOL RURALIS, V36, P307 CUTTER SL, 1996, PROG HUM GEOG, V20, P529 DOWNING TE, 1997, MITIGATION ADAPTATIO, V2, P19 FORD JD, 2004, ARCTIC, V57, P389 FRASER EDG, 2003, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V13, P137 GARDETTE JM, 1998, INSUR MATH ECON, V22, P182 HANDMER J, 1999, MITIGATION ADAPTATIO, V4, P267 HEWITT K, 1983, INTERPRETATIONS CALA, P3 HOUGHTON JT, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 KELLY PM, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V47, P325 LEICHENKO RM, 2002, MITIGATION ADAPTATIO, V7, P1 LIVERMAN DM, 2001, GLOBAL ENV RISK, P201 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 MCLEMAN R, 2004, SILOS SYNTHESIS INTE, P16 PYNN R, 1999, APPL BEHAV SCI REV, V7, P171 REILLY JM, 2003, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V57, P43 SCHMITZ A, 1994, EC AGR CROP INSURANC, P45 SEN AK, 1999, DEV FREEDOM SLOVIC P, 2000, PERCEPTION RISK, P1 SMIT B, 2002, MITIGATION ADAPTATIO, V7, P85 SMIT B, 2003, CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPT, P9 SMITH B, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P223 SMITH SL, 1994, NURS HIST REV, V2, P29 SMITHERS C, 1998, THESIS U GUELPH SMITHERS J, 1997, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V7, P129 TOL RSJ, 1998, ENERG POLICY, V26, P257 TRIESCHMANN JS, 2001, RISK MANAGEMENT INSU VELLINGA P, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, P417 WANDEL J, 2000, AGR ENV SUSTAINABILI, P30 WEICHSELGARTNER J, 2001, DISASTER PREVENTION, V10, P85 YOHE GW, 2002, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V12, P25 NR 40 TC 0 J9 CAN GEOGR-GEOGR CAN BP 217 EP 226 PY 2006 PD SUM VL 50 IS 2 GA 068RI UT ISI:000239391700006 ER PT J AU Lorenzoni, I Jones, M Turnpenny, JR TI Climate change, human genetics, and post-normality in the UK SO FUTURES LA English DT Article C1 Univ E Anglia, Sch Environm Sci, Zuckerman Inst Connect Environm Res, Ctr Environm Risk, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. Univ E Anglia, Sch Environm Sci, Zuckerman Inst Connect Environm Res, Tyndall Ctr Climate Change Res, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. RP Lorenzoni, I, Univ E Anglia, Sch Environm Sci, Zuckerman Inst Connect Environm Res, Ctr Environm Risk, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. AB Virtually intractable matters characterized by uncertainty over consequences, diverse and multiple engaged interests, conflicting knowledge claims, and high stakes, call for post-normal policy responses. This paper explores how two such responses have been implemented in the UK through the management of specific aspects of anthropogenic climate change and human genetics, which we argue can be described as "wicked" or post-normal issues. To address these, approaches require that a broader range of epistemic positions and worldviews be recognized as valid in the policy development process. We suggest that the concept of boundary organisations is well suited to examine some of the institutions that have been set up in the UK to deal with the two post-normal issues we consider here. This paper explores the extent to which the UK Climate Impacts Programme and the Human Genetics Commission respond to a post-normal policy approach and their achievements in overcoming epistemological boundaries and effecting integrated management responses. We conclude by considering the insights such an analysis offers into operationalising post-normal policy approaches. As intermediaries and facilitators, we suggest the two organisations can be considered forerunners in applying a post-normal approach to climate change adaptation and human genetics, respectively. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR GLENEAGLES 2005 SUMM 2003, BBC NEWS ONLINE 0816 2003, BBC NEWS ONLINE 1212 2004, BBC NEWS ONLINE 1208 *CAB OFF OFF SCI T, 1999, ADV REG FRAM BIOT RE *CCIRG, 1996, REV POT EFF CLIM CHA *DEFRA, 200304 DEFRA *DTI DEFRA, 2003, OUR EN FUT CREAT LOW *ESYS CONS, REV UKCIP FIN REP EX *HCSTC, 5 REP HUM REPR TECHN *HFEA, EU TISS CELLS DIR NE *HFEA, RESP ARMS LENGTH BOD *HM GOV, 2006, CLIM CHANG UK PROGR *HOUS COMM SCI TEC, 3 REP WORK MED RES C *HOUS LORDS SEL CO, 2000, 3 REP SCI SOC SESS 1 *HOUS LORDS, REP SEL COMM STEM CE *UKCIP, 20052010 UKCIP *UKCIP, AB UKCIP ATWOOD M, 2003, ORYX CRAKE BECK U, 1992, RISK SOC TOWARDS NEW BLAIR A, 2004, COMMUNICATION 0914 BRAY D, 1999, B AM METEOROL SOC, V80, P439 CARLEY M, 2000, MANAGING SUSTAINABLE CASE E, 2003, NEW SCI, V178, P40 CLARKE M, 1997, HANDLING WICKED ISSU CLARKE M, 1998, COMMUNITY GOVERNANCE DEMARCHI B, 1999, FUTURES, V31, P743 FUNTOWICZ SO, 1993, FUTURES, V25, P739 GIDDENS A, 1990, CONSEQUENCES MODERNI GIERYN TF, 1983, AM SOCIOL REV, V48, P781 GUSTON DH, 1999, SOC STUD SCI, V29, P87 GUSTON DH, 2001, SCI TECHNOL HUM VAL, V26, P399 HAAG D, 2001, ECOL MODEL, V144, P45 HEALY S, 1999, FUTURES, V31, P655 HUDSON B, 2002, POLICY POLIT, V30, P153 HULME M, 2002, UKCIP02 TYND CTR CHA HULME M, 2004, GEOGR J 2, V170, P105 IRWIN A, 2001, PUBLIC UNDERST SCI, V10, P1 JASANOFF SS, 1987, SOC STUD SCI, V17, P195 JONES M, 2003, NEW GENET SOC, V22, P21 LANDER ES, 2001, NATURE, V409, P860 LASSWELL HD, 1951, POLICY SCI RECENT DE, P3 LASSWELL HD, 1970, POLICY SCI, V1, P3 LAUGHARNE R, 2002, J ROY SOC MED, V95, P207 LEACH M, 2005, SCI CITIZENS GLOBALI MCCARTHY DDP, 2003, ENVIRONMENTS, V31 MULLER A, 2003, ECOL ECON, V45, P19 NORTON A, 2004, DAY TOMORROW PUBLIC POORTINGA W, 2003, PUBLIC PERCEPTIONS R RAVETZ JR, 2002, J AGR ENVIRON ETHIC, V15, P255 RITTEL HWJ, 1973, POLICY SCI, V4, P155 ROSA EA, 2002, SOC NATUR RESOUR, V15, P251 SALORANTA TM, 2001, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V50, P395 SCLOVE RE, 1995, DEMOCRACY TECHNOLOGY STRAND R, 2000, FUTURES, V32, P451 SWEENEY K, 2002, J EVAL CLIN PRACT, V8, P131 SYKES R, 2004, SUSTAINABLE ENERGY C TOGNETTI SS, 1999, FUTURES, V31, P689 TURNPENNY JR, 2004, INTEGRATED ASSESSMEN, V4, P283 WALLACE H, 2002, LANCET, V359, P2282 WEALE A, 2001, SCI PUBL POLICY, V28, P413 WEST C, 2003, 20023 UKCIP WEST C, 2005, MEASURING PROGRESS P NR 63 TC 0 J9 FUTURES BP 65 EP 82 PY 2007 PD FEB VL 39 IS 1 GA 127RN UT ISI:000243604100005 ER PT J AU Conway, D Allison, EH Felstead, R Goulden, M TI Rainfall variability in East Africa: implications for natural resources management and livelihoods SO PHILOSOPHICAL TRANSACTIONS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY OF LONDON SERIES A-MATHEMATICAL PHYSICAL AND ENGINEERING SCIENCES LA English DT Article C1 Univ E Anglia, Sch Dev Studies, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. Univ E Anglia, Sch Environm Sci, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. RP Conway, D, Univ E Anglia, Sch Dev Studies, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. AB This note examines the effects of climate variability on natural-resources management in East Africa. The bimodal rainfall regime in much of East Africa brings rainy seasons from March to May and October to December with greater interannual variability from October to December. We discuss the impacts of rainfall extremes in 1961 and 1997 and explore three examples of natural-resources management in the context of rainfall variability: inland fisheries in East and southern Africa; fluctuations in the level of Lake Victoria; and lake-shore communities around Lake Kyoga in Uganda. The discussion reflects the complexity of linkages between climate, environment and society in the region and highlights implications for natural-resources management. These range from benefits due to improved seasonal rainfall forecasting to reduce the damage of extremes, to improved understanding of existing climate-society interactions to provide insights into the region's vulnerability and adaptive capacity in relation to future climate change. CR ALLISON EH, 2001, MAR POLICY, V25, P377 BIRKETT C, 1999, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V26, P1031 CONWAY D, 2002, ADV GLOB CHANGE RES, V12, P63 JOHNSON DH, 1988, ECOLOGY SURVIVAL, P173 JULLARSEN E, 2003, 4261 FAO MUTAI CC, 1998, INT J CLIMATOL, V18, P975 ODINGO RS, 1962, GEOGR REV, V52, P440 OREILLY CM, 2003, NATURE, V424, P766 SARCH MT, 2000, P 10 INT C I FISH EC SUTCLIFFE JV, 1987, HYDROLOG SCI J, V32, P143 TATE E, 2004, HYDROLOG SCI J, V49, P563 WATERBURY J, 2002, NILE BASIN NATL DETE WEBSTER PJ, 1999, NATURE, V401, P356 WELCOMME RL, 2001, INLAND FISHERIES ECO NR 14 TC 1 J9 PHIL TRANS ROY SOC LONDON A BP 49 EP 54 PY 2005 PD JAN 15 VL 363 IS 1826 GA 882WD UT ISI:000225970100005 ER PT J AU Sauchyn, DJ Joss, BN Nyirfa, WN TI Sharing the geo-referenced results of climate change impact research SO ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING AND ASSESSMENT LA English DT Article C1 Univ Regina, Prairie Adaptat Collaborat, Regina, SK S4S 7J7, Canada. Agr & Agri Food Canada, Prairie Farm Rehabil Adm, Regina, SK S4P 4L2, Canada. RP Sauchyn, DJ, Univ Regina, Prairie Adaptat Collaborat, Regina, SK S4S 7J7, Canada. AB The Prairie Adaptation Research Collaborative ( PARC) has implemented an Internet Map Server (IMS) at the PARC web site (www.parc.ca) to 1) disseminate the geo-referenced results of PARC sponsored research on climate change impacts and adaptation, and 2) address data, information and knowledge management within the PARC network of researchers and partners. PARC facilitates interdisciplinary research on adaptation to the impacts of climate change in the Canadian Prairie Provinces. The web site is intended as a platform for sharing information and encouraging discussion of climate change impacts and adaptation. The IMS enables scientists and stakeholders to apply simple climate change scenarios to geo-referenced biophysical and social data, and dynamically create maps that display the geographic distribution of potential impacts of climate change. With a limited capacity for spatial analysis, most geo-processing and the climate impact modeling is done offline within a GIS environment. The IMS will serve the output from climate impact models, such that the model results can be customized by the web site user and be most readily applied to the planning and analysis of adaptation strategies. CR *AGR AGR CAN, 1995, SOIL LANDSC CAN VERS *CAN CLIM PROGR BO, 1998, UNPUB UND AD CLIM CH *INT PAN CLIM CHAN, 2001, CLIM CHANG 2001 IMP AKINREMI OO, 1999, J CLIMATE, V12, P2996 BOER GJ, 2000, CLIM DYNAM, V16, P427 BOOTSMA A, 2000, PROCEDURE CALCULATIN CUTFORTH HW, 1999, CAN J PLANT SCI, P98 HENGEVELD H, 2000, CLIMATE CHANGE DIGES HERRINGTON R, 1997, CANADA COUNTRY STUDY, V3 INGRAM J, 1996, J SOIL WATER CONSERV, V51, P377 LELYK GW, 1995, SPECIAL REPORT SERIE, V964 NYIRFA WN, 2001, ASSESSMENT CLIMATE C PETERSON DL, 1998, COMPLEXICITY ECOLOGY PETTAPIECE WW, 1995, TECH B CTR LAND BIOL SAUCHYN DJ, 2001, ENVIRON MONIT ASSESS, V67, P277 ZHANG X, 2000, ATMOSPHERE OCEAN, V38 NR 16 TC 0 J9 ENVIRON MONIT ASSESS BP 389 EP 397 PY 2003 PD OCT-NOV VL 88 IS 1-3 GA 717QL UT ISI:000185100800017 ER PT J AU Kituyi, E TI Towards sustainable production and use of charcoal in Kenya: exploring the potential in life cycle management approach SO JOURNAL OF CLEANER PRODUCTION LA English DT Article C1 Univ Nairobi, Dept Chem, Ind Ecol Inst, Ind Ecol Grp, Nairobi 00100, Kenya. RP Kituyi, E, Univ Nairobi, Dept Chem, Ind Ecol Inst, Ind Ecol Grp, POB 30197, Nairobi 00100, Kenya. AB The study seeks to demonstrate the potential role that industrial ecology could play towards energy poverty reduction and environmental conservation in Kenya through sustainable charcoal production and consumption. This is achieved through an exploration of the application of the life cycle management (LCM) concept that identifies various opportunities for technological intervention for energy and environmental conservation and reduction of material and energy losses. It also identifies opportunities for income generation at various stages of the product's life cycle; an aspect critical in poverty reduction in developing countries. The study finds that applying LCM in the charcoal trade in Kenya can deliver social, economic and environmental benefits to developing country communities and should, therefore, be promoted. However, appropriate legal, policy and institutional frameworks must exist in these countries for this to occur. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR 2001, AFR PREP C WORLD SUM 2002, JOHANNESBURG PLAN IM *ECA, 2001, TRANSF AFR EC EC REP, P85 *ENV CAN, 1997, ENV LIF CYCL MAN GUI *INT EN AG, 2001, WORLD EN OUTL 2001 *IPCC, 2001, CLIM CHANG 2001 3 AS *MIN EN BEIJ I KEN, 1980, FUELW CYCL SURV *MIN EN, 2001, STUD KEN EN DEM SUPP *UNDP UNDESA WEC, 2000, WORLD EN ASS *WHO, 2000, WORLD HLTH REP 1999 *WORLD BANK, 2000, E ASIA RECOVERY MAY, P146 *WORLD BANK, 2000, FUEL THOUGHT ESTY D, 2002, ENV PERFORMANCE MEAS EZZATI M, 2001, LANCET, V358, P619 GUSTAFSON D, 2001, P AFR HIGH LEV REG M, P99 HARSCH E, 2001, AFRICA RECOVERY UN, V15, P308 HOLMGREN P, 1994, AMBIO, V23, P390 JOSEPH S, 1990, BRINING STOVES PEOPL KAREKEZI S, 1997, RENEWABLE ENERGY TEC KAREKO KK, 2001, FAO UNEP WORKSH DAT KITUYI E, 2001, BIOMASS BIOENERG, V20, P83 KITUYI E, 2001, ENERG CONVERS MANAGE, V42, P1517 KITUYI EN, 2000, THESIS U NAIROBI LACAUX JP, 1994, ATMOS RES, V35, P71 LIFSET R, 2002, IND ECOLOGY LOWE I, 2001, FRIIB WORKSH SUST SC MAHIRI I, 2001, LAND DEGRAD DEV, V12, P205 SAUR K, 2003, DRAFT REPORT LCM DEF TOEPFER K, 2001, AFR HIGH LEV REG M E WALUBENGO D, 1993, WHOSE TECHNOLOGIES D, P60 NR 30 TC 0 J9 J CLEAN PROD BP 1047 EP 1057 PY 2004 VL 12 IS 8-10 GA 829UR UT ISI:000222076200021 ER PT J AU Lacaux, JP Tourre, YM TI Does the climate and its variability have an effect on human health? SO BIOFUTUR LA French DT Article C1 GIP Medias France, CNES, F-31401 Toulouse 09, France. RP Lacaux, JP, GIP Medias France, CNES, BPI 2102,18 Av Belin, F-31401 Toulouse 09, France. CR MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 *WHO, 2002, WHO REP 2002 BESANCENOT JP, RAPPORT FINAL GICC BOUMA MJ, 1997, JAMA-J AM MED ASSOC, V278, P1772 BOUMA MJ, 1997, TROP MED INT HEALTH, V2, P1122 GAGNON AS, 2002, INT J BIOMETEOROL, V46, P81 HADDAD ZS, 2004, J GEOPHYS RES, V109, P17 HALES S, 1999, ENVIRON HEALTH PERSP, V107, P99 KELLYHOPE LA, 2004, VECTOR-BORNE ZOONOT, V4, P210 KOVATS RS, 2003, LANCET, V362, P1481 LACAUX JP, 2006, IN PRESS REMOTE SENS LINTHICUM KJ, 1999, SCIENCE, V285, P397 MONDET B, 2005, J VECTOR ECOL, V30, P102 NDIONE JA, 2003, RISQUES SANTE, V2, P176 RODO X, 2002, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V99, P12901 SALUZZO JF, 2004, VIRUS EMERGENTS, P87 TOURRE YM, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V33, P1029 TRAPE JF, 2005, RAPPORT FIN GICC VIBOUD C, 2004, EUR J EPIDEMIOL, V19, P1055 NR 19 TC 0 J9 BIOFUTUR BP 22 EP 25 PY 2006 PD OCT IS 270 GA 102OU UT ISI:000241822600003 ER PT J AU Payet, R Obura, D TI The negative impacts of human activities in the Eastern African region: An international waters perspective SO AMBIO LA English DT Article C1 CORDIO E Africa, Mombasa, Kenya. RP Payet, R, POB 677, Victoria, Mahe, Seychelles. AB The complex interactions between human activities and the environment at the interface of land and water is analyzed with a focus on the Somali Current (East Africa), and Indian Ocean Island States, subregions of the Global International Waters Assessment (GIWA). These 2 subregions contain some of the world's richest ecosystems, including the high biodiversity forests of Madagascar and the diverse coastal habitats of the eastern African coast. These ecosystems support local communities and national and regional economies. Current and future degradation of these systems, from water basins to continental shelves, affects the livelihoods and sustainability of the countries in the region, and long-term efforts to reduce poverty. The assessments determined that pollution and climate change are the primary environmental and social concerns in the Islands of the Indian Ocean, while freshwater shortage and unsustainable exploitation of fisheries and other living resources are the primary environmental and social concerns in East Africa. The GIWA approach, through assessing root causes of environmental concerns, enables the development of policy approaches for mitigating environmental degradation. This paper explores policy frameworks for mitigating the impacts, and reducing the drivers, of 3 environmental concerns-freshwater shortage; solid waste pollution; and climate change-addressing social and institutional causes and effects, and linking the subregions to broad international frameworks. The common theme in all 3 case studies is the need to develop integrated ecosystem and international waters policies, and mechanisms to manage conflicting interests and to limit threats to natural processes. CR *FAO, 1995, IRR AFR FIG, V7, P336 *FAO, 1997, 920 FAO *FAO, 2000, FAO YB, V90 *INT LTD, 1996, RIV BAS MAN SM IRR I MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 *IUCN, UNEP REG SEAS DIR BI *KMFRI, 2003, CURR STAT TRAWL FISH *U DAR SAL FAO SID, 1998, OV LAND BAS SOURC AC *UNDP, 2000, HUM DEV REP *UNEP, 1984, UNEP REG SEAS REP ST, V49 *UNEP, 1988, CORAL REEFS WORLD, V2 *UNEP, 1999, IOCUNEPEU PUBL *UNEP, 2001, E AFR ATL COAST RES *UNEP, 2002, AFR ENV OUTL PAST PR *WORL BANK, 1998, 18473MAG WORLD BANK *WORLD BAN DANIDA, 1995, RAP WAT RES ASS, V2 *WORLD BANK, 1997, AFR DEV IND BURKE L, 1988, WRI PUBLICATION CEDAR H, 2000, COLLECTED ESSAYS EC CIEINSAIN B, 1998, INTEGRATED COASTAL O DAVENPORT M, 2001, STUDY ALTERNATIVE SP DERRAIK JGB, 2002, MAR POLLUT BULL, V44, P842 DUBOIS R, 1985, COASTAL RESOURCES MA, V3, P443 FIELDING J, 1999, SOMALIA INSHORE LOBS HARA MM, 2001, FOOD POLICY, V26, P11 HATTON J, 2000, E AFRICAN MARINE ECO HATZIOLOS M, 1998, AFRIA FRAMEWORK INTE HOEGHGULDBERG O, 1999, MAR FRESHWATER RES, V50, P839 KAMUKALA G, 2001, SEACAM PUBLICATION KELLEHER G, 1995, ANTARCTIC ARCTIC MED, V2 KELLEHER G, 1995, CENTRAL INDIAN OCEAN, V4 KELLEHER G, 1995, GLOBAL REPRESENTATIV, V1 KELLEHER G, 1995, WIDER CARIBBEAN W AF, V3 LINDEN O, 1993, WORKSH POL C INT COA LINDEN O, 1999, FRNMISTRASIDAWORLDBA LINDEN O, 2002, CORAL REEF DEGRADATI MATO RRA, 2002, THESIS UNEP LAKE JIP MATTHES H, 1988, 814 FAO MCCLANAHAN TR, 1995, COAST MANAGE, V23, P57 MCCLANAHAN TR, 1997, ENVIRON CONSERV, V24, P105 MUJWAHUZI MR, 2001, WATER RESOUR MANAG, P128 MUSYOKI MM, 1999, RES REP ASS MAN AUTH OBURA D, 2000, STATUS CORAL REEFS W, P65 OHMAN M, 1999, CORAL REEF DEGRADATI PAYET RA, 1999, ENV IMPACT ASSESSMEN QUOD J, 2000, CORAL REEF DEGRADATI, P108 RAAL P, 1995, STATUS FUTURE LARGE, P19 RAMAGE CS, 1969, MAR BIOL, V7, P11 ROPELEWSKI CF, 1987, MON WEATHER REV, V115, P1606 RUWA RK, 2003, 46 GIWA SARMETT JD, 1991, CONSERVATION MOUNT K, P53 SARMETT JD, 1999, WORKSH P WAT MAN PAN, P29 SHEPPARD CRC, 2003, NATURE, V425, P294 SHUNULA JP, 1996, THESIS U DARESSALAAM SOAM R, 2001, P WORKSH MIT COR BLE STIASSNY MLJ, 1994, BIOL DIVERSITY AFRIC, V275, P133 VANDERELST, 1998, IMOUNDPSOM970130819 VANDERVLIET PC, 1990, EUKARYOTIC NUCLEUS, V1, P1 VOABIL C, 2003, SEACAM PUBLICAION WEST JM, 2003, CONSERV BIOL, V17, P956 WESTMACOFF S, 2000, MANAGEMENT BLEACHED WILKINSON C, 1999, AMBIO, V28, P188 WILKINSON C, 2000, STATUS CORAL REEFS W YANDA P, 2001, WATER RESOUR MANAG, P104 YANDA Z, 2001, WATER RESOUR MANAG, P30 NR 65 TC 0 J9 AMBIO BP 24 EP 33 PY 2004 PD FEB VL 33 IS 1-2 GA 805RM UT ISI:000220383400005 ER PT J AU Newman, L Dale, A TI Network structure, diversity, and proactive resilience building: a response to Tompkins and Adger SO ECOLOGY AND SOCIETY LA English DT Editorial Material C1 Royal Rds Univ, Sci Technol & Environm Div, Victoria, BC, Canada. RP Newman, L, Royal Rds Univ, Sci Technol & Environm Div, Victoria, BC, Canada. AB Although community social networks can build resilience, and thus, aid adaptation to unexpected environmental change (Tompkins and Adger 2004), not all social networks are created equal. Networks composed of a diversity of "bridging" links to a diverse web of resources and "bonding" links that build trust strengthen a community's ability to adapt to change, but networks composed only of "bonding" links can impose constraining social norms and foster group homophily, reducing resilience. Diversity fosters the resilience needed to adapt to unexpected change, and can also enlarge the ability to proactively make collective decisions that optimize future options. CR *UN ENV PROGR, 1992, UN C ENV DEV 3 14 JU ADGER WN, 2003, ECON GEOGR, V79, P387 BORGATTI SP, 2003, J MANAGE, V29, P991 DALE A, 2005, DYNAMIC BALANCE SOCI GRANOVETTER MS, 1973, AM J SOCIOL, V78, P6 HOLLING CS, 2001, ECOSYSTEMS, V4, P390 MORRIS J, 2000, RETHINKING RISK PREC, P1 PEREEIRA P, 1994, UNCERTAIN QUEST SCI, P448 PORTES A, 1998, ANNU REV SOCIOL, V24, P1 PUTNAM R, 2000, BOWLING ALONE COLLAP RUEF M, 2002, IND CORP CHANGE, V11, P427 TOMPKINS EL, 2004, ECOLOGY SOC, V9, P10 VOLKER B, 2001, RATION SOC, V13, P397 WOOLCOCK M, 2001, CANADIAN J POLICY RE, V2, P11 NR 14 TC 0 J9 ECOL SOC BP 2 PY 2005 PD JUN VL 10 IS 1 GA 941TU UT ISI:000230237900039 ER PT J AU Polsky, C TI Putting space and time in Ricardian climate change impact studies: Agriculture in the US Great Plains, 1969-1992 SO ANNALS OF THE ASSOCIATION OF AMERICAN GEOGRAPHERS LA English DT Article C1 Clark Univ, Grad Sch Geog, Worcester, MA 01610 USA. Clark Univ, George Perkins Marsh Inst, Worcester, MA 01610 USA. RP Polsky, C, Clark Univ, Grad Sch Geog, 950 Main St, Worcester, MA 01610 USA. AB The "Ricardian" technique for projecting climate change impacts on agriculture has generated an unusual amount of critical attention. Ricardian climate sensitivities are typically viewed as the necessary and static result of exclusively local economic and biophysical conditions. In this paper, six spatial econometric models are estimated to explore how human-environment relationships associated with climate sensitivities have varied over space and time in the Great Plains, 1969-1992. Results indicate that spatial effects, such as extra-local communication processes and proximity to and regulation of Ogallala irrigation water, are important influences on climate sensitivities. Projected climate change impacts also vary significantly with the scale, location, and time of analysis. Under a hypothetical climate change, at the county scale, land values would decline (by up to one-third) in the western counties, but increase (by up to one-half) in the eastern counties. In some cases, the projected impacts for a given county change algebraic sign or order of magnitude during the study period. At the regional scale, impacts are significantly higher in the early years (a projected increase of about 5 percent of regional land values, similar to$7 billion [1992$]) than in the later years (an increase of about one-half of one percent, similar to$0.7 billion). These results suggest that, suitably modified, the Ricardian framework can be used constructively to explore subtle yet important social dimensions of dynamic climate risk, and that on balance the Great Plains system of agricultural production, despite a heterogeneous picture of projected impacts, appears to be increasingly vulnerable to the effects of climate change. CR *U TEX POP RES CTR, 1998, GREAT PLAINS POP ENV *USDA, 1995, AV VAL PER ACR FARM *USDA, 2001, WHEAT YB FARM PRIC S *USDOC, 2000, TABL CA1 3 PERS INC *USGS, 2001, HIGH PLAINS REG GROU ABLER DG, 2000, GLOBAL PLANET CHANGE, V25, P67 ADAMS RM, 1999, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V41, P3 AIKEN LS, 1991, MULTIPLE REGRESSION ANSELIN L, 1988, SPATIAL ECONOMETRICS ANSELIN L, 1998, HDB APPL EC STAT, P237 ANSELIN L, 2001, COMPANION THEORETICA, P310 ANTLE JM, 1996, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V80, P67 BALLER RD, 2001, CRIMINOLOGY, V39, P561 BARNARD CH, 1997, AM J AGR ECON, V79, P1642 BLAUT J, 1977, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V67, P343 BOWDEN MJ, 1981, CLIMATE HIST, P479 CASH DW, 2001, SCI TECHNOL HUM VAL, V26, P431 CLINE WR, 1996, AM ECON REV, V86, P1309 CONNER D, 1997, J SUSTAIN AGR, V10, P5 CURRIE J, 1981, EC THEORY AGR LAND T CUTTER S, 2001, INT HUMAN DIMENSIONS, V1, P8 DARWIN RF, 1999, AM ECON REV, V89, P1049 DORNBUSCH AJ, 1995, CONSERVATION GREAT P, P231 DOWNING TE, 1991, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V1, P365 DOWNING TE, 2000, INT HUMAN DIMENSIONS, P16 DOWNING TE, 2001, POLICY SERIES, V3 EASTERLING WE, 1993, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V24, P23 EASTERLING WE, 1997, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V7, P337 EMEL J, 1995, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V85, P664 FABER M, 2002, ECOL ECON, V40, P323 FLINT C, 1998, AM BEHAV SCI, V41, P1282 GLANTZ MH, 1988, SOC RESPONSES REGION, P113 GREEN DE, 1992, GROUNDWATER EXPLOITA, P28 GRUBLER A, 1998, TECHNOLOGY GLOBAL CH HANEMANN WM, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P571 HANSEN LR, 1991, J AGR ECON RES, V43, P18 JONES K, 1997, SPATIAL ANAL MODELLI, P79 KAISER HM, 1993, AM J AGR ECON, V75, P387 KANDLIKAR M, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P529 KASPERSON JX, 2001, INT WORKSH VULN GLOB KATES RW, 1985, CLIMATE IMPACT ASSES, P3 KATES RW, 2001, SCIENCE, V292, P641 KAUFMANN RK, 1998, ECOL ECON, V26, P113 KEPFIELD SS, 1993, GREAT PLAINS Q FAL, P237 KROMM DE, 1990, CONSERVING WATER HIG LAUENROTH WK, 1999, GREAT PLAINS RES, V9, P223 LIVERMAN DM, 2001, GLOBAL ENV RISK, P201 LOCKERETZ W, 1978, AM SCI, V66, P560 MCCARTHY JJ, IN PRESS ASSESSMING MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 MENDELSOHN R, 1993, COSTS IMPACTS BENEFI, P173 MENDELSOHN R, 1994, AM ECON REV, V84, P753 MENDELSOHN R, 1996, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V80, P55 MENDELSOHN R, 1999, IMPACT CLIMATE CHANG OBRIEN KL, 2000, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V10, P221 OBRIEN KL, 2003, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V93, P89 OLOUGHLIN J, 1994, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V84, P351 OPIE J, 2000, OGALLALA WATER DRY L PARRY ML, 2001, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V11, P257 POLSKY C, IN PRESS DROUGHT WAT POLSKY C, IN PRESS INTEGRATED POLSKY C, 2001, AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON, V85, P133 POLSKY C, 2002, THESIS PENNSYLVANIA QUIGGIN J, 1999, AM ECON REV, V89, P1044 RAPP D, 1988, US GOT AGR WHY IT CA RIEBSAME WE, 1983, URBAN FRINGE LAND US, P257 RIEBSAME WE, 1991, GREAT PLAINS RES, V1, P133 ROBERTS R, 1995, REGIONS RISK COMPARI, P255 ROSENBERG NJ, 1987, GREAT PLAINS Q WIN, P22 ROSENBERG NJ, 1992, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V21, P385 RUSSELL CS, 1970, DROUGHT WATER SUPPLY SAUER R, 1990, AM J ALTERNATIVE AGR, V5, P184 SCHNEIDER SH, 1997, ENVIRON MODEL ASSESS, V2, P229 SCHNEIDER SH, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P203 SCHROTER D, IN PRESS MITIGATION SIEBENHUNER B, 2000, ECOL ECON, V32, P15 SKOLD MD, 1995, CONSERVATION GREAT P TURNER BL, 2003, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V100, P8074 WARRICK RA, 1981, GREAT PLAINS PERSPEC, P111 WILHITE DA, 1988, SOCIETAL RESPONSES R, P353 WILHITE DA, 2003, HDB WEATHER CLIMATE, P743 NR 81 TC 0 J9 ANN ASSN AMER GEOGR BP 549 EP 564 PY 2004 PD SEP VL 94 IS 3 GA 848LP UT ISI:000223469500008 ER PT J AU Karing, P Kallis, A Tooming, H TI Adaptation principles of agriculture to climate change SO CLIMATE RESEARCH LA English DT Article C1 Estonian Meteorol & Hydrol Inst, EE-10143 Tallinn, Estonia. RP Kallis, A, Estonian Meteorol & Hydrol Inst, Ravala 8, EE-10143 Tallinn, Estonia. AB An analysis of climate change impacts on the level of agricultural production is presented based on long-term experimental data on yields of crops grown in different soils and climatic zones. Mathematical models combining available data on the biology of agricultural crops and their response to climatic conditions have been used. The principle of maximum plant productivity is the basis of this modelling effort. The potential and meteorologically possible yields under existing environmental conditions were calculated using the potato dynamic model POMOD. The analyses were completed under different climate change scenarios. According to the climate change scenarios HADCM2 and ECHAM3TR, mean potato yields will increase by about 6 to 8%. The yield increase is larger (10 to 16%) on coastal islands and in North Estonia. A new approach and classification of micro-climate geo-complexes was developed. Agricultural production was found to be highly sensitive to micro-climatic variations. The proposed approach permits more objective use of meteorological data in changing climatic conditions. Shifts in agroclimate were established using this modelling approach. The sums of degree-days, particularly above 0 and 5 degreesC, have significantly risen during the period 1807-1995. The development of potato varieties adapted to a changing climate is possible. A strategy for adaptation of agriculture to climate change is presented. CR CARTER TR, 1996, AGR FOOD SCI FINLAND, V5, P222 DAVITAJA FF, 1964, FORECAST PROVISION W DEVRIES FWT, 1984, WISS Z HUMBOLDT U BE, V4, P343 KADAJA J, 1998, COUNTRY CASE STUDY C, P39 KALLIS A, 1974, PHOTOSYNTHETICA, V8, P91 KARING PH, 1987, P ALL UNION I AGR ME, V22, P73 KARING PH, 1992, OHUTEMPERATUUR EESTI KARING PH, 1995, 62 C AGM KEEVALLIK S, 1998, COUNTRY CASE STUDY C, P30 PARRY ML, 1998, CLIMATE IMPACT ADAPT PARRY ML, 1988, IMPACT CLIMATIC VARI, V1 ROOSTALU H, 1996, ESTONIA SYSTEM GLOBA, P123 SEPP JV, 1991, PRODUCTIVITY RESOURC TOOMING H, 1972, SOLAR RAD PRODUCTIVI, P1 TOOMING H, 1977, METEOROL HYDROL, V2, P81 TOOMING H, 1988, LECT THEORETICAL BIO, P129 TOOMING H, 1993, J AGR METEOROROL JPN, V48, P501 TOOMING HG, 1977, SOLAR RAD YIELD FORM TOOMING HG, 1984, ECOLOGICAL PRINCIPLE ZHUKOVSKY EE, 1990, METEOROL HYDROL, V1, P95 NR 20 TC 0 J9 CLIMATE RES BP 175 EP 183 PY 1999 PD AUG 27 VL 12 IS 2-3 GA V3096 UT ISI:000171723000015 ER PT J AU Eakin, H Tucker, C Castellanos, E TI Responding to the coffee crisis: a pilot study of farmers' adaptations in Mexico, Guatemala and Honduras SO GEOGRAPHICAL JOURNAL LA English DT Article C1 Univ Calif Santa Barbara, Dept Geog, Santa Barbara, CA 93106 USA. Indiana Univ, Dept Anthropol, CIPEC, Ctr Study Inst Populat & Environm Change, Bloomington, IN 47405 USA. Univ Valle Guatemala, Ctr Estudios Ambientales, Guatemala City, Guatemala. RP Eakin, H, Univ Calif Santa Barbara, Dept Geog, Santa Barbara, CA 93106 USA. AB This article explores the impacts of market shocks and institutional change on smallholder livelihoods, and the challenge of adaptation in Mexico, Guatemala and Honduras. The rapid decline in coffee prices since the dissolution of the International Coffee Agreement in 1989 has had widespread and profound impacts across coffee-producing regions. The data collected in the three case studies of this project confirm the severity of the impact, particularly in the Mexican and Guatemalan communities. They also illustrate the importance of the historical relationship between farmers and public institutions in defining farmers' perception of risk, their awareness of the nature of the changes they face, and thus the flexibility of their responses to present and future uncertainty. The project's findings indicate that the existence and development of local networks among farmers, service providers and information sources may be critical for facilitating adaptation, particularly in the context of economic liberalization and globalized agriculture. CR *AFE COHDEFOR, 1996, AN SUB SECT FOR HOND *ANACAFE, PROD EJ CAF *CEPAL, 2002, CENT IMP CAID PREC C *CLACDS, 1999, CAF HODN INCAE CLACD *ICO, 2004, HIST DAT SUPPL DAT E *IDB USAID WB, 2002, TRANS COMP SECT CAF *IHCAFE, 1991, PROD CAF EXP MUN PRO *IHCAFE, 2001, ESTR MUN PROC DOC VE ADGER WN, 2001, J INT DEV, V13, P921 ADGER WN, 2003, ECON GEOGR, V4, P387 BATTERBURY S, 2001, ECUMENE, V8, P437 BEBBINGTON A, 1999, WORLD DEV, V27, P2021 BEBBINGTON A, 2000, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V90, P495 BENNETT JW, 1976, ECOLOGICAL TRANSITIO BETHELL L, 1998, LATIN AM EC SOC SINC BRELMERTHOMAS V, 1987, POLITICAL EC CENTRAL BROCKETT CD, 1993, LAND POWER POVERTY BROOKS N, 2004, ADAPTATION POLICY FR BRYMAN A, 2001, ETHNOGRAPHY SAGE CARNEY J, 1999, LIVELIHOOD APPROACHE CASTELLANOS EC, 2003, ADAPTING MARKET SHOC CHAPIN FS, 2004, AMBIO, V33, P344 DAVIES S, 1997, 57 IDS DELAROCHE H, 2000, PERSPECTIVAS MERCA S, V85 DIAZ JH, 1999, I ADAPTATION INNOVAT, P83 EAKIN H, 2002, THESIS U ARIZONA ELLIS F, 2000, RURAL LIVELIHOODS DI ELTON C, 2002, CENTRAL AM CHRISTIAN, V20, P7 EMMOTT R, 2003, TORONTO STAR, V19, C11 FRANCIS E, 2000, MAKING LIVING CHANGI GLEDHILL J, 1995, NEOLIBERALISM TRANSN GOODMAN D, 1997, GLOBALISING FOOD AGR HOFFMAN O, 1987, PAISAJE SOCIEDAD EJI HUNT RC, 1995, COMP ANAL HUMAN SOC, P173 KRIPPNER G, 1997, POLIT SOC, V25, P4 LEICHENKO RM, 2002, MITIGATION ADAPTATIO, V7, P1 MACRIDIS RC, 1990, COMP POLITICS NOTES, P1 MARSDEN T, 1997, GLOBALISING FOOD AGR, P169 MCMICHAEL P, 1994, GLOBAL RESTRUCTURING MORALES ACM, 1997, PROCESO CAFETALERO M MORAN EF, 1995, COMP ANAL HUMAN SOC, P1 MORRISON K, 2003, FINANCIAL TIMES 0509, V20 NAVARRO LH, 1994, TRANSFORMING STATE S, P217 NETTING R, 1993, SMALLHOLDERS HOUSEHO NOLASCO M, 1985, CAFE SOCIEDAD MEXICO OBRIEN KL, 2000, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V10, P221 ORTIZ AR, 1996, MANUAL CAFETICULTURA PAIGE JM, 1997, COFFEE POWER REVOLUT PONTE S, 2002, WORLD DEV, V30, P1099 REILLY JM, 1995, AM J AGR ECON, V77, P727 SCOONES I, 1998, 72 I DEV STUD SMITHERS J, 1997, AGR RESTRUCTURING SU SNYDER R, 2001, POLITICS NEOLIBERALI STEVENS C, 2003, 215 IDS TUCKER CM, 1996, THESIS U ARIZONA TUCKER CM, 1999, MESOAMERICA, V37, P111 TUCKER CM, 2005, SEEING FOREST TREES, P253 WAGNER R, 2001, HIST CAFE GUATEMALA WILLIAMS R, 1994, STATES SOCIAL EVOLUT YOHE GW, 2001, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V49, P247 NR 60 TC 1 J9 GEOGR J BP 156 EP 171 PY 2006 PD JUN VL 172 GA 056HB UT ISI:000238511700006 ER PT J AU PAOLETTI, MG TI BIODIVERSITY, TRADITIONAL LANDSCAPES AND AGROECOSYSTEM MANAGEMENT SO LANDSCAPE AND URBAN PLANNING LA English DT Article RP PAOLETTI, MG, PADUA UNIV,DEPT BIOL,VIA TRIESTE 75,IL-35122 PADUA,ITALY. AB Biological organisms are the basis of life on our planet. Following recent evaluations, only 1/20 to 1/60 of the planet species have yet been described and most of these will be lost if the rate of destruction of our environment continues at the present rate. Most of the terrestrial environment, up to 95%, is affected by human activities, including agriculture, and this terrestrial habitat provides up to 98% of human food on the planet. Sustainable strategies in food production in agriculture improve the existing biodiversity and include the following items: increased porosity of the landscape through natural vegetation, proper management, better use and recycling of organic residues, introduction of integrated farming systems, reduced tillage, rotation, biological control, increased number of biota involved in human foodwebs. Attention must be paid to non-conventional food such as insects and other terrestrial invertebrates in Western countries. Such microlivestock, like the case of palm weevils in Papua New Guinea, can offer a model of sustainable use of rain forests in which most of the diversity on the planet represented by insects is concentrated. CR 1989, LOST CROPS INCAS LIT ALTIERI MA, 1987, CONSERV BIOL, V1, P49 BARRAU J, 1959, ECON BOT, V13, P151 BUREL F, 1990, CHANGING LANDSCAPES, P99 BUSZKO J, 1991, REZ PRZYR BIELOWIESA, V10, P5 CLAWSON DL, 1985, ECON BOT, V39, P56 DEFOLIART GR, 1989, B ENTOMOL SOC, V35, P22 DEFOLIART GR, 1990, ETHNOBIOLOGY IMPLICA, P145 DEFOLIART GR, 1993, PRINCIPLES, V37, P42 DOVER N, 1987, FEED EARTH AGROECOLO DUELLI P, 1992, 4TH P EUR C ENT GOD, P29 EHRLICH PR, 1991, SCIENCE, V253, P758 ELLENBERG H, 1986, OKOSYSTEM FORSCHUNG ELTITI A, 1989, SUSTAINABLE AGR SYST, P265 ERWIN TL, 1982, COLEOPTERISTS B, V36, P74 EXNER D, 1990, SUSTAINABLE AGR TEMP, P263 FAVRETTO MR, 1992, BIOL FERT SOILS, V14, P151 FOISSNER W, 1992, AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON, V40, P207 HAMMOND PM, 1991, INSECTS RAIN FORESTS, P197 HANSEN AJ, 1991, BIOSCIENCE, V41, P382 HAWKES JG, 1990, POTATO EVOLUTION BIO HELIOVAARA K, 1993, INSECTS POLLUTION HOLLOWAY JD, 1991, BIODIVERSITY MICROOR, P37 HOUSE GJ, 1989, ENVIRON ENTOMOL, V18, P302 HUSTON MA, 1994, BIOL DIVERSITY COEXI JANICK J, 1993, NEW CROPS JANZEN DH, 1987, BIOL J LINN SOC, V30, P343 KARG J, 1989, ROCZNIKI AKAD ROLNIC, V188, P5 KROMP B, 1992, AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON, V40, P117 LAL R, 1989, AGROFOREST SYST, V8, P97 LOCKERETZ W, 1987, AM J ALTERNATIVE AGR, V2, P132 MAHUNKA S, 1987, AKAD KIADO BUDAPEST, V2, P1 MATTHEY W, 1990, INVERTEBRES BIOINDIC MAY RM, 1992, SCI AM, V267, P42 MCFADYEN A, 1961, ANN APPL BIOL, V49, P215 MERCER C, 1993, P INVERTEBRATES MINI, P1 MESZAROS Z, 1984, ACTA PHYTOPATHOL HUN, V19, P65 MESZAROS Z, 1984, ACTA PHYTOPATHOL HUN, V19, P91 MEYERROCHOW VB, 1973, AM J CLIN NUTR, V26, P673 MICHON G, 1983, 1981 P CONS M NAIR, P13 NAZZI F, 1989, 1ST DATA AGR ECOSYST, V37, P163 NOSS RF, 1987, BIOL CONSERV, V41, P11 OGLE BM, 1985, ECOL FOOD NUTR, V17, P41 OLDFIELD ML, 1987, BIOSCIENCE, V37, P199 PAOLETTI MG, 1988, FIRENZE, V71, P501 PAOLETTI MG, 1988, REV ECOL BIOL SOL, V25, P33 PAOLETTI MG, 1989, ECOL INT B, V17, P79 PAOLETTI MG, 1991, AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON, V34, P341 PAOLETTI MG, 1992, AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON, V40, P3 PAOLETTI MG, 1992, BIOTIC DIVERSITY AGR PAOLETTI MG, 1993, BIODIVERSITA NEGLI A, P33 PAOLETTI MG, 1994, IN PRESS PEDOBIOLOGI PIMENTEL D, 1973, ENVIRON ENTOMOL, V2, P659 PIMENTEL D, 1991, HDB PEST MANAGEMENT, P679 PIMENTEL D, 1992, BIOSCIENCE, V42, P354 RAPPAPORT RA, 1967, PIGS ANCESTORS RITUA, V1, P1 REID WV, 1989, KEEPING OPTIONS ALIV ROOT RB, 1973, ECOL MONOGR, V1, P95 RYSZKOWSKI L, 1991, LANDSCAPE ECOLOGY AG, P71 SCHIRATO M, 1991, THESIS U PADOVA SOWADA AA, 1986, INDONESIA GRANDE DER, P135 STINNER BR, 1990, ANNU REV ENTOMOL, V35, P299 STINNER BR, 1993, SOCIOECONOMIC POLICY, P37 STORK NE, 1988, BIOL J LINN SOC, V35, P321 TARGA C, 1990, THESIS U PADOVA TINGEY WM, 1991, NATURALLY OCCURRING, P126 TOMMASEO M, 1986, INDONESIA GRANDE DER, P125 TOWNSEND KP, 1974, HUM ECOL, V2, P217 TRENKENSCHUH FA, 1970, ASMAT SKETCHBOOK, V1 VANARSDALE P, 1975, ASMAT SKETCH BOOK, V5 WERNER MR, 1990, AM J ALTERNATIVE AGR, V5, P24 WHEELER QD, 1990, ANN ENTOMOL SOC AM, V83, P1031 WILSON EO, 1988, BIODIVERSITY NR 73 TC 9 J9 LANDSCAPE URBAN PLAN BP 117 EP 128 PY 1995 PD FEB VL 31 IS 1-3 GA QL696 UT ISI:A1995QL69600011 ER PT J AU Holden, NM Brereton, AJ TI Adaptation of water and nitrogen management of spring barley and potato as a response to possible climate change in Ireland SO AGRICULTURAL WATER MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article C1 Univ Coll Dublin, Dept Biosyst Engn, Bioresources Modelling Grp, Dublin 2, Ireland. RP Holden, NM, Univ Coll Dublin, Dept Biosyst Engn, Bioresources Modelling Grp, Earlsfort Terrace, Dublin 2, Ireland. AB Changes in water and nitrogen management for spring barley and potato, arising from possible climate change in Ireland, were assessed using simulation models. The locations in Ireland with the highest proportion (by area) of barley and potato production were identified and 1961-1990 and 2041-2070 monthly climate data were used to drive mechanistic crop models. Nitrogen and water response curves were created using current recommended management guidelines as a starting point. A series of step-wise manual irrigation simulations were then undertaken to estimate the minimum future irrigation demand for specific areas. It was Concluded that there will be little impact on spring barley production, but in some areas (towards the centre and western half of Ireland) it might be possible to reduce nitrogen application rates by half. The impact of climate change on potato production will be more pronounced: without irrigation yield will only remain viable in areas where rainfall remains high, elsewhere between 150 and 300 mm of irrigation will be required each year, but this might be offset by the possibility of reducing nitrogen inputs by up to half. It was also concluded that potato production on less suitable (heavier) soils would be less desirable if irrigation is required because of possible run-off losses that may occur. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. CR *CSO, 2004, AR YEILD PROD CROPS *IPCC TGCIA, 1999, GUID US SCEN DAT CLI *IPCC, 2001, CLIM CHANG 2001 SCI ALVA AK, 2002, COMMUN SOIL SCI PLAN, V33, P1451 BAETHGEN WE, 1995, ASA SPEC PUBL, V59, P207 BELL P, 1999, INTRO TILLAGE FARMIN CONRY MJ, 1967, SOIL SURVEY B, V17 CONRY MJ, 1997, BIOL ENVIRON B, V97, P185 COULTER BS, 2002, 4729 RMIS JOHNS CAST DUBROVSKY M, 1997, ENVIRONMETRICS, V8, P409 EITZINGER J, 2003, AGR WATER MANAGE, V61, P195 FANGMEIER A, 2000, ENVIRON EXP BOT, V44, P151 FINNAN JM, 2002, AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON, V88, P11 GARDINER MJ, 1980, GEN SOIL MAP IRELAND GENG S, 1986, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V36, P363 GOMEZLIMON JA, 2004, WATER RESOUR RES, V40 GOURDRAIN J, 1983, NETH J AGR SCI, V31, P157 HAVERKORT AJ, 2000, MANAGEMENT NITROGEN HOLDEN NM, 2001, AGROMETEOROLOGICAL M HOLDEN NM, 2002, IRISH J AGR FOOD RES, V41, P213 HOLDEN NM, 2003, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V116, P181 HOLDEN NM, 2003, ERTDI REPORT SERIES, V15, P33 HOLDEN NM, 2003, IRISH J AGR FOOD RES, V42, P1 HOLDEN NM, 2004, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V122, P175 KIMBALL BA, 2002, ADV AGRON, V77, P293 KLEEMOLA J, 1998, AGR FOOD SCI FINLAND, V5, P299 KRAMER KJ, 1999, AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON, V72, P9 LAFFERTY S, 1999, IRISH AGR TRANSITION LOPEZCASTANEDA C, 1994, FIELD CROP RES, V37, P51 MACKERRON DKL, 2000, MANAGEMENT NITROGEN, P11 MEYER RD, 1998, AGRON J, V90, P420 MIGLIETTA F, 2000, CLIMATE CHANGE GLOBA, P189 OSULLIVAN, 1999, IRISH FARMERS HDB PENUELAS J, 1990, J EXP BOT, V41, P1119 PERALTA JM, 2002, AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON, V88, P23 RICHARDSON CW, 1985, T ASAE, V28, P1602 SHEPHERD MA, 2000, MANAGEMENT NITROGEN, P165 SHOCK CC, 2000, DEFICIT IRRIGATION P, V22, P47 SOEBO A, 1996, AGR ECOSYS ENV, V57, P9 SWEENEY J, 2003, ERTDI REPORT SERIES, V15, P5 TSUJI GY, 1994, DSSAT VERSION 3 INT VANDEGEIJN SC, 1996, GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANG, P101 VANLOON CD, 1981, AM POTATO J, V58, P51 WHEELER RM, 1997, ANN BOT-LONDON, V79, P529 WOLF J, 2002, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V112, P217 WOLF J, 2003, AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON, V94, P141 NR 46 TC 0 J9 AGR WATER MANAGE BP 297 EP 317 PY 2006 PD APR 24 VL 82 IS 3 GA 030GV UT ISI:000236623400003 ER PT J AU Bulto, PLO Rodriguez, AP Valencia, AR Vega, NL Gonzalez, MD Carrera, AP TI Assessment of human health vulnerability to climate variability and change in Cuba SO ENVIRONMENTAL HEALTH PERSPECTIVES LA English DT Article C1 Climate Ctr, Inst Meteorol, Havana, Cuba. Trop Med Inst Pedro Kouri, Havana, Cuba. Minist Publ Hlth Cuba, Vector Control Dept, Havana, Cuba. RP Bulto, PLO, Carretera Asilo,S-N,Apartado 17032, Havana 11700, Cuba. AB In this study we assessed the potential effects of climate variability and change on population health in Cuba. We describe the climate of Cuba as well as the patterns of climate-sensitive diseases of primary concern, particularly dengue fever. Analyses of the associations between climatic anomalies and disease patterns highlight current vulnerability to climate variability. We describe current adaptations, including the application of climate predictions to prevent disease outbreaks. Finally, we present the potential economic costs associated with future impacts due to climate change. The tools used in this study can be useful in the development of appropriate and effective adaptation options to address the increased climate variability associated with climate change. Key words: climate change, climate indices, climate variability, human health, impacts. CR *PAN AM HLTH ORG, 1997, BOL EPIDEMIOL, V18, P1 *WHO, 2004, WHOSDEOEH0401 *WORLD METL ORG, 2001, INF FIN ABREV DEC RE BASILEVSKY B, 1994, STAT FACTOR ANAL REL BULTO PLO, 1998, URBAN ECOL, P98 BULTO PLO, 2000, REV METEOROL COLOMB, V3, P75 BULTO PLO, 2003, REV CUBANA METEOROL, V10, P39 BULTO PLO, 2003, REV METEOROL COLOMB, V7, P11 BULTO PLO, 2004, 82 NAT PROGR GLOB CH BULTO PLO, 2004, REV CUBANA METEOROL, V11, P41 BURTON I, 1999, COME HELL HIGH WATER CARDENAS PA, 1998, 09901 HAB CHAN NY, 1999, ENVIRON HEALTH PERSP, V107, P329 DILLON WR, 1984, MULTIVARIATE ANAL ENFIELD DB, 1998, DEPENDENCE CARIBBEAN GUTIERREZ T, 1998, 112 NAT PROGR GLOB C GUZMAN MG, 1990, AM J TROP MED HYG, V42, P179 HAINES A, 2004, JAMA-J AM MED ASSOC, V291, P99 HAIR JF, 1999, ANAL MULTIVARIANTE KOURI G, 1997, B EPIDEMIOL ORGAN PA, V18, P7 KOURI GP, 1989, B WORLD HEALTH ORGAN, V67, P375 KOVATS RS, 2003, HLTH GLOBAL ENV CHAN, V1 LORENZ EN, 1956, 1 MIT DEP MET MCMICHAEL AJ, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE HUMAN MCMICHAEL AJ, 1999, B ORGAN METEOROL MUN, V48, P16 MCMICHAEL AJ, 2003, CLIMATE CHANGE HUMAN MICHAEL HJ, 1999, B ORGAN METEOROL MUN, V48, P32 MITCHELL JFB, 1995, J CLIMATE, V8, P2364 PIAKIN RD, 1981, MICROBIOLOGIA UROLOG SANMARTIN HF, 1963, SALUD ENFERMEDAD, V1 WOODWARD A, 1998, CLIMATE RES, V11, P31 NR 31 TC 1 J9 ENVIRON HEALTH PERSPECT BP 1942 EP 1949 PY 2006 PD DEC VL 114 IS 12 GA 112BN UT ISI:000242500200045 ER PT J AU Watson, RT Haeberli, W TI Environmental threats, mitigation strategies and high-mountain areas SO AMBIO LA English DT Article C1 World Bank, Washington, DC 20433 USA. Univ Zurich, Dept Geog, CH-8057 Zurich, Switzerland. RP Watson, RT, World Bank, 1818 H St NW,MSN MC4-139, Washington, DC 20433 USA. AB High-mountain areas suffer from increasing environmental threats. The causes are often global in dimension but lead to specific impacts under conditions of steep and/or high-altitude terrain with strong effects from snow and ice. This paper presents a global perspective, focussing primarily on observed and projected changes in climate and then goes on to discuss key messages of greatest relevance to the highest belts of mountain regions. The paper finishes with a brief discussion of mitigation strategies. CR 2003, CBD TECHNICAL SERIES, V10 2003, CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK *ROYAL SWED AC SCI, 2002, 11 ROYAL SWED AC SCI BENISTON M, 2000, ENV CHANGE MOUNTAINS CIHLAR J, 1997, GCOSGTOS PLAN TERRES ETZELMULLER B, 2001, NORSK GEOGRAFISK TID, V55, P186 GITAY H, 2002, IPCC TECHNICAL PAPER, V5 HAEBERLI W, 1997, ECLOGAE GEOL HELV, V90, P407 HAEBERLI W, 1999, GEOGR ANN A A, V81, P585 HAEBERLI W, 2002, IUFRO RES SERIES, V9, P167 HARRIS C, 2001, PERMAFROST PERIGLAC, V12, P3 HARRIS C, 2003, WMO B, V3, P252 HEYWOOD VH, 1995, GLOBAL BIODIVERSITY HOUGHTON JT, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 JOHNSON T, 1997, CLEAR WATER BLUE SKI KAAB A, 2003, 1384 EOS LATERNSER M, 2003, INT J CLIMATOL, V23, P733 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 METZ B, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 NAKICENOVIC N, 2000, SPECIAL REPORT EMISS THOMAS CD, 2004, NATURE, V427, P145 WATSON RT, 1998, PROTECTING OUR PLANE WATSON RT, 2000, SPECIAL REPORT LAND WATSON RT, 2001, CLIMATE CHANFE 2001 NR 24 TC 0 J9 AMBIO BP 2 EP 10 PY 2004 PD NOV GA 870LN UT ISI:000225058700002 ER PT J AU Parson, EA Corell, RW Barron, EJ Burkett, V Janetos, A Joyce, L Karl, TR MacCracken, MC Melillo, JM Morgan, MG Schimel, DS Wilbanks, TJ TI Understanding climatic impacts, vulnerabilities, and adaptation in the United States: Building a capacity for assessment SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Review C1 Harvard Univ, John F Kennedy Sch Govt, Cambridge, MA 02138 USA. Amer Meteorol Soc, Washington, DC USA. Penn State Univ, University Pk, PA 16802 USA. USGS, Natl Wetlands Res Ctr, Lafayette, LA USA. World Resources Inst, Washington, DC 20006 USA. Forest Serv, USDA, Washington, DC USA. NOAA, Natl Climat Data Ctr, Washington, DC USA. US Global Change Res Program, Washington, DC USA. Lawrence Livermore Natl Lab, Livermore, CA 94550 USA. Marine Biol Lab, Ctr Ecosyst, Woods Hole, MA 02543 USA. Carnegie Mellon Univ, Pittsburgh, PA 15213 USA. Max Planck Inst Biogeochem, Jena, Germany. Natl Ctr Atmospher Res, Boulder, CO 80307 USA. Oak Ridge Natl Lab, Oak Ridge, TN 37830 USA. RP Parson, EA, Harvard Univ, John F Kennedy Sch Govt, 79 JFK St, Cambridge, MA 02138 USA. AB Based on the experience of the U.S. National Assessment, we propose a program of research and analysis to advance capability for assessment of climate impacts, vulnerabilities, and adaptation options. We identify specific priorities for scientific research on the responses of ecological and socioeconomic systems to climate and other stresses: for improvement in the climatic inputs to impact assessments; and for further development of assessment methods to improve their practical utility to decision-makers. Finally, we propose a new institutional model for assessment, based principally on regional efforts that integrate observations, research, data, applications, and assessment on climate and linked environmental-change issues. The proposed program will require effective collaboration between scientists, resource managers, and other stakeholders, all of whose expertise is needed to define and prioritize key regional issues, characterize relevant uncertainties, and assess potential responses. While both scientifically and omanizationally challenging, such an integrated program holds the best promise of advancing Our capacity to manage resources and the economy adaptively under a changing climate. 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Univ Reading, Dept Meteorol, Reading RG2 6AR, Berks, England. Univ Reading, Dept Agr, Reading RG2 6AR, Berks, England. RP Slingo, JM, Univ Reading, CtrGlobal Atmospher Modelling, Reading RG2 6AR, Berks, England. AB Changes in both the mean and the variability of climate, whether naturally forced, or due to human activities, pose a threat to crop production globally. This paper summarizes discussions of this issue at a meeting of the Royal Society in April 2005. Recent advances in understanding the sensitivity of crops to weather, climate and the levels of particular gases in the atmosphere indicate that the impact of these factors on crop yields and quality may be more severe than previously thought. There is increasing information on the importance to crop yields of extremes of temperature and rainfall at key stages of crop development. Agriculture will itself impact on the climate system and a greater understanding of these feedbacks is needed. Complex models are required to perform simulations of climate variability and change, together with predictions of how crops will respond to different climate variables. Variability of climate, such as that associated with El Nino events, has large impacts on crop production. If skilful predictions of the probability of such events occurring can be made a season or more in advance, then agricultural and other societal responses can be made. The development of strategies to adapt to variations in the current climate may also build resilience to changes in future climate. Africa will be the part of the world that is most vulnerable to climate variability and change, but knowledge of how to use climate information and the regional impacts of climate variability and change in Africa is rudimentary. In order to develop appropriate adaptation strategies globally, predictions about changes in the quantity and quality of food crops need to be considered in the context of the entire food chain from production to distribution, access and utilization. Recommendations for future research priorities are given. CR *COMM AFR, 2005, OUR COMM INT REP COM *FAO, 2002, WORLD AGR 2015 2030 BARON C, 2005, PHILOS T ROY SOC B, V360, P2095 BETTS RA, 2005, PHILOS T ROY SOC B, V360, P2049 BHARWANI S, 2005, PHILOS T ROY SOC B, V360, P2183 CHALLINOR AJ, 2005, PHILOS T ROY SOC B, V360, P2085 ERDA L, 2005, PHIL T R SOC B, V360, P2149 FISCHER G, 2005, PHILOS T ROY SOC B, V360, P2067 GREGORY PJ, 2005, PHILOS T ROY SOC B, V360, P2139 HAILE M, 2005, PHILOS T ROY SOC B, V360, P2169 HANSEN JW, 2005, PHILOS T ROY SOC B, V360, P2037 HUNTINGFORD C, 2005, PHILOS T ROY SOC B, V360, P1999 LONG SP, 2005, PHILOS T ROY SOC B, V360, P2011 OSBORNE TM, 2005, THESIS U READING PALMER TN, 2005, PHILOS T ROY SOC B, V360, P1991 PARRY ML, 2005, PHILOS T ROY SOC B, V360, P2125 PORTER JR, 2005, PHILOS T ROY SOC B, V360, P2021 STONE RC, 2005, PHILOS T ROY SOC B, V360, P2109 VERDIN J, 2005, PHILOS T ROY SOC B, V360, P2155 NR 19 TC 0 J9 PHIL TRANS ROY SOC B-BIOL SCI BP 1983 EP 1989 PY 2005 PD NOV 29 VL 360 IS 1463 GA 986CS UT ISI:000233427400001 ER PT J AU Studdert, LJ Frongillo, EA Valois, P TI Household food insecurity was prevalent in Java during Indonesia's economic crisis SO JOURNAL OF NUTRITION LA English DT Article C1 Cornell Univ, Div Nutrit Sci, Ithaca, NY 14853 USA. Minist Hlth & Aged Care, Canberra, ACT 2600, Australia. RP Frongillo, EA, Cornell Univ, Div Nutrit Sci, Ithaca, NY 14853 USA. AB Valid assessment of household food security is important, particularly in rapidly changing circumstances such as the economic crisis that struck Indonesia in 1998. The Cornell-Radimer tool for measuring household food security has now been used in several social and economic settings. An adaptation of this tool was used in the context of the economic crisis of Java, Indonesia in June-August 1998 in a survey of 1423 mothers with children < 5 y old. Qualitative and quantitative data contributed to understanding food insecurity and provided evidence for some aspects of validity. The data showed substantial household food insecurity with 94.2% of households found to be uncertain or insecure about their food situation in the previous year. Of respondents, 11% reported losing weight in the previous year because of lack of food. Food security in Java was undoubtedly compromised by the economic crisis. These results suggest, on the basis of qualitative and quantitative understandings of food insecurity, that this tool provided a useful measure of the situation in Java in 1998. From this study and others done recently, such a tool or ones constructed using a similar approach have been found to be useful in various settings in which there is a need to understand and identify household food insecurity for purposes of estimating and monitoring prevalence and targeting of policies and programs. Further research to validate this approach in various settings is warranted. CR *ACC SCN, 2000, 4 REP WORLD NUTR SIT *EC INT UN, 1998, EIU COUNTR REP IND *H KELL INT, 1999, IND CRIS COMP ITS IM *WORLD BANK, 1998, NOT BRIEF DON AG *WORLD BANK, 2000, IND MACR UPD ALAIMO K, 1999, J NUTR EDUC, V31, P269 EILERTS GS, 1999, FOOD SECURITY MEASUR FRANKENBERG E, 1999, WORKING PAPER SERIES, V9904 FRONGILLO EA, 1997, J NUTR, V127, P699 FRONGILLO EA, 1999, J NUTR S, V129, S506 HAMELIN AM, 1999, J NUTR S, V129, S525 HAMILTON WL, 1997, HOUSEHOLD FOOD SECUR KENDALL A, 1994, VALIDATION RADIMER C KENDALL A, 1995, J NUTR, V125, P2793 KREFTING L, 1991, AM J OCCUP THER, V45, P214 LINCOLN YS, 1985, NATURALISTIC INQUIRY MAXWELL D, 1999, FOOD POLICY, V24, P411 MAXWELL DG, 1996, FOOD POLICY, V21, P291 MAXWELL S, 1992, HOUSEHOLD FOOD SECUR MAXWELL S, 1996, FOOD POLICY, V21, P155 MILES BM, 1994, QUALITATIVE DATA ANA POPPELE J, 1999, SOCIAL IMPACTS INDON RADIMER K, 1992, J NUTR EDUC, V24, P36 RADIMER KL, 1992, J NUTR S, V120, S1544 RIELY F, 1997, FOOD SECURITY INDICA TESCH R, 1990, QUALITATIVE RES ANAL WELCH KJ, 1998, B WORLD HEALTH ORGAN, V76, P143 WOLFE WS, 2001, FOOD NUTR B, V22, P5 NR 28 TC 10 J9 J NUTR BP 2685 EP 2691 PY 2001 PD OCT VL 131 IS 10 GA 481DF UT ISI:000171504100014 ER PT J AU Leemans, R Eickhout, B TI Another reason for concern: regional and global impacts on ecosystems for different levels of climate change SO GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS LA English DT Article C1 Wageningen Univ, NL-6700 DD Wageningen, Netherlands. Off Environm Assessment, NL-3720 BA Bilthoven, Netherlands. RP Leemans, R, Wageningen Univ, POB 47, NL-6700 DD Wageningen, Netherlands. AB This study assesses the impacts of climate change on species, ecosystems and landscapes over a range of increasing global mean temperatures and the corresponding temperature and precipitation patterns. Results from IMAGE, a so-called integrated assessment model, are used to link different ecological impacts to different levels of climate change. The analysis shows that, although there are large regional differences, even small increases in global mean temperatures will considerably impact many species, ecosystems and landscapes. Between 1degreesC and 2degreesC increases in global mean temperatures most species, ecosystems and landscapes will be impacted and adaptive capacity will become limited. With the already ongoing high rate of climate change, the decline in biodiversity will therefore accelerate and simultaneously many ecosystem services will become less abundant. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *IMAGE TEAM, 2001, RIVM CD ROM PUBL ALCAMO J, 1998, IMAGE 2 1 MODEL PERG, P296 BALMFORD A, 2002, SCIENCE, V297, P950 CARTER TR, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, P145 COX PM, 2000, NATURE, V408, P180 CRAMER W, 1999, GLOB CHANGE BIOL S1, V5, P1 CRAMER WP, 1993, VEGETATION DYNAMICS, P190 DAVIS MB, 1989, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V15, P75 DUKES JS, 1999, TRENDS ECOL EVOL, V14, P135 EMANUEL WR, 1985, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V7, P29 GITAY H, 2002, CLIMAGE CHANGE BIODI, V5, P77 HUNTLEY B, 1988, VEGETATION HIST, P803 LEEMANS R, 1992, BIODIVERSITY 1992 ST, P254 LEEMANS R, 2003, ENVEPOCGSP20035FINAL MALCOLM JR, 2000, 34 WWF NAKICENOVIC N, 2000, EMISSIONS SCENARIOS, P599 PAGE SE, 2002, NATURE, V420, P61 PARMESAN G, 2003, NATURE, V421, P37 PAULY D, 1995, NATURE, V374, P255 PRENTICE IC, 1992, J BIOGEOGR, V19, P117 ROOT TL, 2003, NATURE, V421, P57 SMITH JB, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, P913 SMITH TM, 1992, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V21, P367 SOLOMON AM, 1990, LANDSCAPE ECOLOGICAL, P293 SWART RJ, 1998, GLOBAL CHANGE SCENAR, P193 THOMPSON LG, 2002, SCIENCE, V298, P589 VANHERK CM, 2002, LICHENOLOGIST 2, V34, P141 VANMINNEN JG, 2000, GLOB CHANGE BIOL, V6, P595 VELLINGA P, 1991, CLIMATE CHANGE, V18, P7 NR 29 TC 1 J9 GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANGE BP 219 EP 228 PY 2004 PD OCT VL 14 IS 3 GA 854EQ UT ISI:000223884300004 ER PT J AU Stehr, N von Storch, H TI Introduction to papers on mitigation and adaptation strategies for climate change: protecting nature from society or protecting society from nature? SO ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE & POLICY LA English DT Editorial Material C1 Zeppelin Univ, D-88045 Friedrichshafen, Germany. GKSS Forschungszentrum Geesthacht GmbH, Inst Coastal Res, Cumberland, MD 21502 USA. RP Stehr, N, Zeppelin Univ, Am Seemooser Horn 20, D-88045 Friedrichshafen, Germany. CR EMANUEL K, 2005, NATURE, V436, P686 GROSSMAN WD, 2003, 20033 GKSS KLINENBERG E, 2002, HEAT WAVE SOCIAL AUT LUHMANN N, 2005, SOCIOLOGY RISK INTRO PIELKE RA, 2005, B AM METEOROL SOC, V86, P1571 REITER P, 2001, ENVIRON HEALTH PE S1, V109, P141 SCHELLENBERGER M, 2004, DEATH ENV GLOBAL WAR SCHIERMEIER Q, 2005, NATURE, V453, P1008 STEHR N, 1992, PRACTICAL KNOWLEDGE STEHR N, 2001, FRAGILITY MODERN SOC ZELLNER R, 2003, BMBF HERAUSFORDERUNG NR 11 TC 0 J9 ENVIRON SCI POLICY BP 537 EP 540 PY 2005 VL 8 IS 6 GA 991MD UT ISI:000233817200001 ER PT J AU Chappells, H Shove, E TI Debating the future of comfort: environmental sustainability, energy consumption and the indoor environment SO BUILDING RESEARCH AND INFORMATION LA English DT Article C1 Univ Lancaster, Dept Sociol, Lancaster LA1 4YD, England. RP Chappells, H, Univ Lancaster, Dept Sociol, Lancaster LA1 4YD, England. AB Vast quantities of energy are consumed in heating and cooling to provide what are now regarded as acceptable standards of thermal comfort. In the UK as in a number of other countries, there is a real danger that responses in anticipation of global warming and climate change - including growing reliance on air-conditioning - will increase energy demand and CO2 emissions even further. This is an appropriate moment to reflect on the history and future of comfort, both as an idea and as a material reality. Based on interviews and discussions with UK policy makers and building practitioners involved in specifying and constructing what will become the indoor environments of the future, four possible scenarios are identified each with different implications for energy and resource consumption. By actively promoting debate about the indoor environment and associated ways of life, it may yet be possible to avoid becoming locked into social and technical trajectories that are ultimately unsustainable. The aim of this paper is to inspire and initiate just such a discussion through demonstrating that comfort is a highly negotiable socio-cultural construct. CR *BRIT COUNC OFF, 2000, BCO GUID 2000 BEST P *BUILD SERV RES IN, 2002, WORLD MARK AIR COND *CHART I BUILD SER, 2004, EN WHIT PAP IMPL WOR *DEP TRAD IND, 2001, UK FUEL POV STRAT *DEP TRAD IND, 2003, OUR EN FUT CREAT LOW *UK CLIM IMP PROGR, 2001, RES FOR WORKSH REP U ACKERMANN ME, 2002, COOL COMFORT AM ROMA BAKER N, 1993, SOLAR ENERGY ARCHITE, P103 BAKER N, 2004, ENV DIVERSITY ARCHIT, P47 BRAGER G, 2000, ASHRAE J OCT, P21 BRAGER G, 2003, BUILDINGS CULTURE EN COLE R, 2003, BUILDINGS CULTURE EN COOPER G, 1998, AIR CONDITIONING AM COOPER I, 1982, APPL ENERG, V11, P243 COOPER I, 1982, ENERG BUILDINGS, V5, P83 CULLEN N, 2001, P CIBSE NAT C REG CO FANGER O, 1970, THERMAL COMFORT ANAL FOUCAULT M, 1979, DISCIPLINE PUNISH GILES A, 2003, BUILDING SERVICES EN GOLDSMITH R, 1960, J APPL PHYSIOL, V15, P776 GUY S, 2000, SOCIOLOGY ENERGY BUI HESCHONG L, 1979, THERMAL DELIGHT ARCH HULME M, 1998, 1 UKCIP CLIM RES UN HUMPHREYS MA, 1994, THERMAL COMFORT PAST, P52 HUMPHREYS MA, 1995, STANDARDS THERMAL CO, P3 HUNT DRG, 1982, BUILD ENVIRON, V17, P107 MORGAN C, 2003, CLIMATE RES, V24, P267 NICOL JF, 1999, ENERG BUILDINGS, V30, P261 NICOL JF, 2002, ENERG BUILDINGS, V34, P563 PRETLOVE SEC, 1998, BUILDING SERVICES EN, V19, P55 SHOVE E, 2003, COMFORT CLEANLINESS SHOVE E, 2004, ENV DIVERSITY ARCHIT, P19 SMITH PF, 2001, ARCHITECTURE CLIMATE WALTERS GA, 2003, DOMESTIC ENERGY FACT NR 34 TC 2 J9 BUILDING RES INFORM BP 32 EP 40 PY 2005 PD JAN-FEB VL 33 IS 1 GA 889ZS UT ISI:000226482100003 ER PT J AU de Loe, RC Kreutzwiser, RD TI Climate variability, climate change and water resource management in the Great Lakes SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 Univ Guelph, Dept Geog, Guelph, ON N1G 2W1, Canada. RP de Loe, RC, Univ Guelph, Dept Geog, Guelph, ON N1G 2W1, Canada. AB Water managers always have had to cope with climate variability. All water management practices are, to some extent, a response to natural hydrologic variability. Climate change poses a different kind of problem. Adaptation to climate change in water resource management will involve using the kinds of practices and activities currently being used. However, it remains unclear whether or not practices and activities designed with historical climate variability will be able to cope with future variability caused by atmospheric warming. This paper examines the question of adaptation to climate change in the context of Canadian water resources management, emphasizing issues in the context of the Great Lakes, an important binational water resource. CR *ENV CAN, 1973, FLOOD JUN 1964 OLDM *ENV CAN, 1989, HIST STREAMFL SUMM A *INT JOINT COMM FU, 1989, LIV LAK CHALL OPP AN *INT JOINT COMM ME, 1989, LIV LAK CHALL OPP AN *INT JOINT COMM, 1993, METH ALL ADV CONS FL *LEV REF STUD BOAR, 1993, LEV REF STUD GREAT L *ONT MIN NAT RES, 1984, WAT QUANT RES ONT *WORK COMM 3, 1993, UNPUB LEV REF STUD G BOLAND JJ, 1997, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V37, P157 BRUCE JP, 1984, J GREAT LAKES RES, V10, P126 BURTON I, 1996, ADAPTING CLIMATE CHA, P55 BURTON I, 1998, HDB METHODS CLIMATE CARTER TR, 1994, IPCC TECHNICAL GUIDE CARTER TR, 1996, ADAPTING CLIMATE CHA, P27 COHEN SJ, 1986, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V8, P135 CROLEY TI, 1991, CCC GCM 2XCO2 HYDROL DELOE RC, 1993, DEPT GEOGRAPHY PUBLI, V40, P189 FEENSTRA JF, 1998, HDB METHODS CLIMATE FREDERICK KD, 1997, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V37, P291 FREDERICK KD, 1997, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V37, P7 HOFMANN N, 1998, CANADA COUNTRY STUDY, V7 IRVINE KN, 1995, GREAT LAKES GEOGRAPH, V2, P67 KATES RW, 1985, CLIMATE IMPACT ASSES, P3 LAVENDER B, 1998, BINATIONAL GREAT LAK LAYCOCK A, 1987, CANADIAN AQUATIC RES, P13 LEE DH, 1996, GREAT LAKES ST LAWRE, P87 MORTSCH L, 1996, GREAT LAKES ST LAWRE NUTTLE WK, 1993, ADAPTATION CLIMATE C PEARSE PH, 1985, CURRENTS CHANGE FINA PERCY D, 1988, FRAMEWORK WATER RIGH PRICE B, 1989, ELECT POWER WORK GRO RIEBSAME WE, 1988, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V13, P69 RISSLING L, 1996, 1 ATM ENV SERV ENV A, P94 SANDERSON M, 1988, T ROYSL SOC CANADA 5, V3, P33 SANDERSON, 1987, IMPLICATIONS CLIMATI SINGER SN, 1997, HYDROGEOLOGY SO ONTA, V1 SMIT B, 1993, 19 U GUELPH DEP GEOG SMITH JB, 1996, ADAPTING CLIMATE CHA SMITH JB, 1996, CLIMATE RES, V6, P193 SMITH JB, 1996, WATER RESOURCES DEV, V12, P151 SMITHERS J, 1997, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V7, P129 STAKHIV EZ, 1996, ADAPTING CLIMATE CHA, P243 NR 42 TC 2 J9 CLIMATIC CHANGE BP 163 EP 179 PY 2000 PD APR VL 45 IS 1 GA 323WX UT ISI:000087588900010 ER PT J AU Jallow, BP Barrow, MKA Leatherman, SP TI Vulnerability of the coastal zone of The Gambia to sea level rise and development of response strategies and adaptation options SO CLIMATE RESEARCH LA English DT Article C1 NATL ENVIRONM AGCY,BANJUL,GAMBIA. UNIV MARYLAND,DEPT GEOG,LAB COASTAL RES,COLLEGE PK,MD 20742. RP Jallow, BP, DEPT WATER RESOURCES,7 MARINA PARADE,BANJUL,GAMBIA. AB The coastal zone of The Gambia consists of 70 km open ocean coast and 200 km sheltered coast. Only about 20 km of the open coastline is significantly developed and this includes Banjul (the capital city), Bakau and Cape St. Mary, Fajara and the Tourism Development Area (TDA). Tourism is the most important economic sector in the coastal zone and contributes about 10% of the government revenue. Fisheries and agriculture are also important coastal industries. In this study the Aerial Videotape-assisted Vulnerability Analysis (AVVA) technique has been used to provide a detailed analysis of vulnerability to sea level rise, and adaptation strategies have been identified. The data used includes a video recording of the coastline, color infrared and black and white aerial photography, topographic maps, bathymetric maps, a geological map of The Gambia and still photographs. The data have been used to characterize the coastal zone into 9 geomorphological units, wherein the cultural and heritage sites of economic importance have been delineated and characterized according to their biophysical and economic importance. Future erosion rates have been projected by applying the Bruun Rule, and future total land loss due to inundation in response to global warming and accelerated sea level rise has been determined. The sea level rise scenarios considered are 0.2 m, 0.5 m, and 1.0 m per century. Inundation is estimated to be about 92.32 x 10(6) m(2) for a 1.0 m sea level rise, 45.89 x 10(6) m(2) for a 0.5 m sea level rise and 4.96 x 10(6) m(2) for a 0.2 m sea level rise. The greater part of this area lost will be wetlands and mangrove systems important for fish spawning areas and habitats for wildlife. Shoreline retreat is estimated to vary between about 6.8 m in cliffy areas to about 880 m for more flat and sandy areas based on the Bruun Rule. Population and physical structures at risk have been determined. Attempts have been made to report this loss in monetary terms, but firm figures are not yet available. Only one unit of the coastal zone has been evaluated. In this unit, it is expected that the capital city will be completely lost through both erosion and inundation within 50 to 60 yr with a total of 42000 persons displaced. Lands and physical structures to be lost are estimated at US$ 217 million. Response strategies and adaptation options identified include: innovative sand management, building and rehabilitation of groins, construction of revetments to protect important areas, construction of sea-walls/bulkheads, public outreach and awareness, building regulations and urban growth planning, wetland preservation and mitigation, and development of a coastal zone management plan. CR *GPA, 1991, TID DIST TABL BANJ R *IPCC, 1990, RESP STRAT AD ASS *UNEP, 1992, COAST ER GAMB DENNIS KC, 1995, J COASTAL RES, V14, P243 HANDS EB, 1983, HDB COASTAL PROCESSE, P167 LEATHERMAN SP, 1995, J COASTAL RES, V14, P15 NICHOLLS RJ, 1995, J COASTAL RES, V14, P26 PEPPER W, 1992, EMISSIONS SCENARIOS QUELENNEC RE, 1988, IDENTIFICATION COAST WHYTE WJ, 1988, GEOLOGY MINERAL RESO NR 10 TC 3 J9 CLIMATE RES BP 165 EP 177 PY 1996 PD FEB 19 VL 6 IS 2 GA UD549 UT ISI:A1996UD54900012 ER PT J AU Alexander, D TI The study of natural disasters, 1977-1997: Some reflections on a changing field of knowledge SO DISASTERS LA English DT Article C1 Univ Massachusetts, Dept Geosci, Amherst, MA 01003 USA. RP Alexander, D, Univ Massachusetts, Dept Geosci, Amherst, MA 01003 USA. AB As part of a series of papers to mark the 21st year of publication of Disasters, it is opportune to consider some of the changes that have occurred in the field it has covered so diligently for the last two decades. The paper begins with a brief review of the major natural disasters during this period and assesses their impact. It then considers the problem of how to define two key concepts: natural disaster and vulnerability, which remains an open question. The latter is one of the key determinants of the former. Next comes a review of what has occurred in the disasters field since the journal began publication, including some notes on the rise in vulnerability, the information technology revolution and the dilemmas of hazard mitigation. The following two sections assess, respectively, what hoped-for developments did not occur during the period studied and what assets were lost in the name of progress. For example, on the theoretical front, academic over-specialisation has predominated, while on the practical side there has been insufficient transfer of technology to where it is needed. The paper concludes that analyses of disaster need to become more sophisticated and multi-disciplinary and must take account of several forms of context within which developments take place. 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Univ Victoria, Dept Geog, Victoria, BC V8W 3P5, Canada. Univ Guelph, Dept Geog, Guelph, ON N1G 2W1, Canada. RP Bradshaw, B, Simon Fraser Univ, Dept Geog, Burnaby, BC V5A 1S6, Canada. AB Among other foci, recent research on adaptation to climatic variability and change has sought to evaluate the merit of adaptation generally, as well as the suitability of particular adaptations. Additionally, there is a need to better understand the likely uptake of adaptations. For example, diversification is one adaptation that has been identified as a potential farm-level response to climatic variability and change, but its adoption by farmers for this reason is not well understood. This paper serves two purposes. The first is to document the adoption of crop diversification in Canadian prairie agriculture for the period 1994-2002, reflect upon its strengths and limitations for managing a variety of risks, including climatic ones, and gauge its likely adoption by producers in response to anticipated climate change. The second purpose is to draw on this case to refine our current understanding of climate change adaptation more generally. Based upon data from over 15 000 operations, it was determined that individual farms have become more specialized in their cropping patterns since 1994, and this trend is unlikely to change in the immediate future, notwithstanding anticipated climate change and the known risk-reducing benefits of crop diversification. More broadly, the analysis suggests that 'suitable' and even 'possible' climate change adaptations need to be more rigorously assessed in order to understand their wider strengths and limitations. 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AB The Belize River Archaeological Settlement Survey (BRASS) has completed the first phase of fieldwork (1983-1989) involving regional survey and preliminary test excavations in Belize. This work was aimed at gaining a general understanding of prehistoric settlement patterns and chronology in the upper Belize River area of the central Maya lowlands. The results of this phase of the project have demonstrated the complexity inherent in ancient Maya adaptation to the lowland environment. Settlement was far from homogeneous and restricted to the Belize Valley; it occurred in varying densities in all major zones, including the valley, foothills, and interior mountainous uplands. 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RP TAYLOR, P, CORNELL UNIV,STS,632 CLARK HALL,ITHACA,NY 14853. CR BEINART W, 1989, J S AFR STUD, V15, P143 BENTON T, 1989, NEW LEFT REV, V178, P51 BERGER J, 1979, PIG EARTH BERGER J, 1980, LOOKING, P1 BERKES F, 1989, NATURE, V340, P91 BLAIKIE PM, 1985, POLITICAL EC SOIL ER BOFFEY P, 1976, SCIENCE, V193, P866 BRADFORD G, 1987, 5TH ESTATE, V2, P3 CAMMACK P, 1988, PERSPECTIVES DEV CRO, P89 CARNEY J, 1990, AFRICA, V60, P207 CITTADINO E, 1993, SCI NATURE ESSAYS HI COLLINS J, 1987, LANDS RISK 3 WORLD, P19 COLLINS JL, 1986, HUM ORGAN, V45, P1 COMAROFF J, 1985, BODY POWER SPIRIT RE COUGHENOUR MB, 1985, SCIENCE, V230, P619 CRONON W, 1983, CHANGES LAND INDIANS CRONON W, 1991, NATURES METROPOLIS C DONAHUE J, 1990, MULTINATIONAL MO MAR, P10 EHRLICH PR, 1991, SCIENCE, V253, P758 ELLIS J, 1989, J RANGE MANAGE, V41, P450 ESCOBAR A, 1984, ALTERNATIVES, V10, P377 FISH S, 1989, DOING WHAT COMES NAT, P343 GARCIABARRIOS R, 1990, WORLD DEV, V18, P1569 GARCIABARRIOS R, 1991, LAGUNAS DETERIORO AM GARCIABARRIOS R, 1994, POSTCONVENTIONAL RAT GARCIABARRIOS R, 1995, LIMITS MARKETS EQUIT GIDDENS A, 1981, ADV SOCIAL THEORY ME, P161 GILBERT GN, 1984, OPENING PANDORAS BOX GUHA R, 1989, UNQUIET WOODS ECOLOG GUYER JI, 1988, CURR ANTHROPOL, V29, P247 HARAWAY D, 1989, PRIMATE VISIONS GEND, P26 HARDIN G, 1968, SCIENCE, V162, P1243 HARMS R, 1987, GAMES NATURE ECOCULT HECHT SB, 1985, WORLD DEV, V13, P663 HOROWITZ MM, 1987, DROUGHT HUNGER AFRIC, P59 KNORRCETINA K, 1981, ADV SOCIAL THEORY ME LELE SM, 1991, WORLD DEV, V19, P607 LITTLE MA, 1984, ECOSYSTEM APPROACH A, P103 LITTLE PD, 1987, LAND USE CONFLICTS A, P195 MARCUS G, 1986, ANTHR CULTURAL CRITI MARKUS G, 1986, LANGUAGE PRODUCTION MCCABE J, 1984, CULTURAL SURVIVAL Q, V8, P84 MCLAUGHLIN P, 1993, ESSENTIALISM GENERAT MITCHELL T, 1990, THEOR SOC, V19, P545 NAREDO J, 1987, EC EVOLUCION HIST PE PELUSO N, 1993, STATE SOCIAL POWER G, P46 PETERS P, 1987, QUESTION COMMONS CUL, P171 PRESTON S, 1989, DEMOGRAPHY INTERDISC, P1 RANGER T, 1987, PEASANTS PEASANT SOC, P311 RANGER T, 1989, J S AFR STUD, V15, P217 RAPPAPORT RA, 1967, PIGS ANCESTORS RITUA, V1, P1 REES J, 1992, GEOFORUM, V23, P383 RIBOT JC, 1993, ENERGY POLICY MAY, P559 RICHARDS P, 1983, AFRICAN STUDIES REV, V26, P1 ROBERT A, 1979, PROSTACYCLIN, P147 ROSS A, 1991, SOCIAL TEXT, V28, P3 SARKAR T, 1985, SUBALTERN STUDIES, V4, P136 SCHROEDER RA, 1993, ECON GEOGR, V69, P349 SCOTT J, 1985, WEAPONS WEAK EVERYDA SHANIN T, 1987, PEASANTS PEASANT SOC SIMMONS O, 1988, PERSPECTIVES DEV POP SMITH CA, 1984, COMP STUD SOC HIST, V26, P193 SOMMA M, 1993, SOC SCI INFORM, V21, P371 TAYLOR P, 1992, KEYWORDS EVOLUTIONAR, P52 TAYLOR P, 1992, RIGHT TOOL JOB WORK, P115 TAYLOR P, 1995, IN PRESS PERSPECTIVE TAYLOR PJ, 1988, J HIST BIOL, V21, P213 TAYLOR PJ, 1990, PHILOS SCI ASS 1990, V2, P95 TAYLOR PJ, 1992, GEOFORUM, V23, P405 TOLEDO V, 1992, ANTROPOLOGICAS, V3, P5 TOLEDO VM, 1990, AGROECOLOGY SMALL FA, P53 TURNER M, 1993, ECON GEOGR, V69, P402 WADE R, 1988, VILLAGE REPUBLICS EC WATTS MJ, 1983, AFRICAN STUDIES REV, V26, P73 WATTS MJ, 1983, INTERPRETATIONS CALA, P231 WATTS MJ, 1984, LIFE BEFORE DROUGHT, P124 WATTS MJ, 1987, DROUGHT HUNGER AFRIC, P171 WATTS MJ, 1990, CAPITALISM NATURE SO, V4, P123 WATTS MJ, 1990, SUSTAINABILITY STRUG WATTS MJ, 1993, ECON GEOGR, V69, P227 WILLIAMS R, 1980, PROBLEMS MAT CULTURE, P67 WOLF E, 1957, SW J ANTHR, V13, P1 WOLF ER, 1982, EUROPE PEOPLE HIST YEARLEY S, 1993, C SOCIAL JUSTICE GLO NR 84 TC 8 J9 SOC SCI INFORM BP 5 EP 30 PY 1995 PD MAR VL 34 IS 1 GA QN620 UT ISI:A1995QN62000001 ER PT J AU Hurd, BH Callaway, M Smith, JB Kirshen, PH TI Climatic change and US water resources: From modeled watershed impacts to national estimates SO JOURNAL OF THE AMERICAN WATER RESOURCES ASSOCIATION LA English DT Article C1 New Mexico State Univ, Dept Agr Econ & Agr Business, Las Cruces, NM 88003 USA. Riso Natl Lab, UNEP Collaborating Ctr Energy & Environm, DK-4000 Roskilde, Denmark. Tufts Univ, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Medford, MA 02155 USA. Tufts Univ, WaterSHED Ctr, Medford, MA 02155 USA. RP Callaway, M, New Mexico State Univ, Dept Agr Econ & Agr Business, Box 30003,MSC 3169, Las Cruces, NM 88003 USA. AB Water is potentially one of the most affected resources as climate changes. Though knowledge and understanding has steadily evolved about the nature and extent of many of the physical effects of possible climate change on water resources, much less is known about the economic responses and impacts that may emerge. Methods and results are presented that examine and quantify many of the important economic consequences of possible climate change on U.S. water resources. At the core of the assessment is the simulation of multiple climate change scenarios in economic models of four watersheds. These Water Allocation and Impact Models (Water-AIM) simulate the effects of modeled runoff changes under various climate change scenarios on the spatial and temporal dimensions of water use, supply, and storage and on the magnitude and distribution of economic consequences. One of the key aspects and contributions of this approach is the capability of capturing economic response and adaptation behavior of water users to changes in water scarcity. By reflecting changes in the relative scarcity (and value) of water, users respond by changing their patterns of water use, intertemporal storage in reservoirs, and changes in the pricing of water. The estimates of economic welfare change that emerge from the Water-AIM models are considered lowerbound estimates owing to the conservative nature of the model formulation and key assumptions. The results from the Water-AIM models form the basis for extrapolating impacts to the national level. Differences in the impacts across the regional models are carried through to the national assessment by matching the modeled basins with basins with similar geographical, climatic, and water use characteristics that have not been modeled and by using hydrologic data across all U.S. water resources regions. The results from the national analysis show that impacts are borne to a great extent by nonconsumptive users that depend on river flows, which rise and fall with precipitation, and by agricultural users, primarily in the western United States, that use a large share of available water in relatively low-valued uses. Water used for municipal and industrial purposes is largely spared from reduced availability because of its relatively high marginal value. In some cases water quality concerns rise, and additional investments may be required to continue to meet established guidelines. CR WATSON RT, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, V1, P1 *US ARM CORPS ENG, 1981, NAT HYDR POW RES STU, V12 *US ARM CORPS ENG, 1994, ACF RIV BAS WAT CONT *US ARM CORPS ENG, 1994, DEL RIV BAS STUD MAI *US ARM CORS ENG, 1993, ANN OP PLAN MISS RIV *US BUR RECL, 1986, COL RIV SIM SYST SYS *US EPA, 1978, 430977013 US EPA OFF *US EPA, 1978, 430977015 EPA OFF WA *US WAT RES COUNC, 1978, 430977013 EPA OFF WA *US WAT RES COUNC, 1978, NAT WAT RES 1975 200, V1 *WAT RES UPD, 2003, IS GLOB CLIM CHANG R ADAMS RM, 1998, CLIMATE RES, V11, P19 AUSUBEL JH, 1991, AM SCI, V79, P210 BOOKER JF, 1991, 161 COL STAT U COL W CLINE WR, 1992, EC GLOBAL WARMING DARWIN RF, 1995, 703 USDA FANKHAUSER S, 1995, VALUING CLIMATE CHAN FREDERICK KD, 1993, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V24, P83 FREDERICK KD, 1999, WATER GLOBAL CLIMATE GLEICK PH, 1987, WATER RESOUR RES, V23, P1049 GLEICK PH, 1990, CLIMATE CHANGE US WA GLEICK PH, 2000, WATER POTENTIAL CONS HURD BH, 1999, J AM WATER RESOUR AS, V35, P1399 HURD BH, 1999, IMPACT CLIMATE CHANG HURD BH, 2001, GLOBAL WARMING AM EC, P106 KIRSHEN PH, 1992, POTENTIAL IMPACTS CL LANE ML, 1999, INDICATORS IMPACTS G LETTENMAIER DP, 1990, WATER RESOUR RES, V26, P69 LETTENMAIER DP, 1991, J WATER RES PL-ASCE, V117, P108 MCCARL BA, 1980, AM J AGR ECON, V62, P87 MENDELSOHN R, 1994, AM ECON REV, V84, P753 MILES EL, 2000, J AM WATER RESOUR AS, V36, P399 MILLER NL, 2001, 49110 LBNL NASH LL, 1991, J HYDROL, V125, P221 NEMEC J, 1982, HYDROLOG SCI J, V27, P327 REVELLE RR, 1983, CHANGING CLIMATE REP ROSENZWEIG C, 1994, NATURE, V367, P133 SAMUELSON PA, 1952, AM ECON REV, V42, P283 SOLLEY WB, 1993, 1081 US GEOL SURV STOCKTON CW, 1979, GEOHYDROLOGICAL IMPL TAKAYAMA T, 1964, J FARM ECON, V46, P67 TITUS JG, 1992, GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANG, P384 VAUX HJ, 1984, WATER RESOUR RES, V20, P785 WARD FA, 2001, 317 NEW MEX WAT RES WILKINSON R, 2002, POTENTIAL CONSEQUENC NR 45 TC 0 J9 J AM WATER RESOUR ASSOC BP 129 EP 148 PY 2004 PD FEB VL 40 IS 1 GA 808TG UT ISI:000220590800011 ER PT J AU Eakin, H TI Smallholder maize production and climatic risk: A case study from Mexico SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 Univ Arizona, Dept Geog, Tucson, AZ 85721 USA. RP Eakin, H, Univ Arizona, Dept Geog, Tucson, AZ 85721 USA. AB The article explores the strategies employed by smallholder farmers in Mexico to cope with the affects of climatic variability, and how seasonal climate forecasts may assist these farmers in mitigating climatic risk. Recognizing that the decisions of smallholder farmers are intricately tied to the political-economic circumstances in which they operate, the article discusses how agricultural policy in Mexico affects the vulnerability of small-scale producers and may inhibit their ability to use climatic forecasts to their advantage. The article first reviews the literature on smallholder adaptation in Mexico, and discusses briefly policy and institutional issues affecting adaptation at the farm-level. Using the case of small-scale maize producers in Tlaxcala, Mexico, as an illustration, the article then argues that political-economic uncertainty outweighs climatic variability as a determinant of the production strategies of small-scale producers. In these circumstances, the farmers are unlikely to use new seasonal climate forecasts. CR *INEGI, 1993, RES 7 CENS AGR 1991 *U NAC AUT MEX, 1996, UT PRON CLIM ACT AGR ALTIERI MA, 1987, HUM ECOL, V15, P189 ANDERSON J, 1992, FARM SYSTEMS MANAGEM, V2 APPENDINI K, 1994, FOOD POLICY, V19, P149 BATTISTI DS, 1995, REV GEOPHYS, V33, P1367 BELLON MR, 1991, HUM ECOL, V19, P389 CABRERA JAV, 1997, UNPUB CASTANEDA PR, 1981, HIST AGR INFORMACION CISNEROS HD, 1994, EC RESTRUCTURING RUR CRUZ MAG, 1993, PROCAMPO ANTICAMPO CUSACK D, 1981, INTERCIENCIA, V6, P200 DEALCANTARA CH, 1994, EC RESTRUCTURING RUR, CH1 DEJANVRY A, 1995, REFORMAS SECTOR AGRI DENEVAN WM, 1980, WORLD SYSTEMS TRADIT, P217 DEWALT BR, 1979, HUM ORGAN, V38, P134 DOOLITTLE W, 1989, FRAGILE LANDS LATIN, CH15 EAKIN H, 1998, THESIS U ARIZ, P108 GIBBERD V, 1996, DROUGHT RISK MANAGEM GLANTZ MH, 1994, ECODECISION, P78 GLIESSMAN SR, 1991, BIODIVERSITY CULTURE, CH10 KIRKBY A, 1974, NATURAL HAZARDS LOCA, CH15 LAFERRIERE JE, 1992, ECOL FOOD NUTR, V28, P1 LIVERMAN DM, 1989, ASS AM GEOGR M BALT LIVERMAN DM, 1992, EARTH MINERAL SCI, V60, P71 LUNA MT, 1992, MODERNIZACION EC REC, P13 NETTING RM, 1993, SMALLHOLDERS HOUSEHO REDCLIFT M, 1983, EC DEV CULTURAL CHAN, V32, P551 ROMERO PE, 1996, PROBLEMAS DESARROLLO, V27, P7 ROSENZWEIG C, 1994, NATURE, V370, P175 RUEDA VOM, 1997, COMMUNICATION JUN SONKA S, 1982, J APPL METEOROL, V21, P471 STANFORD L, 1994, URBAN ANTHROP, V23, P97 THOMPSON GD, 1994, CONTEMP ECON POLICY, V12, P10 TRENBERTH KE, 1997, B AM METEOROL SOC, V78, P1081 TRUJILLO AJ, 1990, HIST SOC TLAXCAL OCT, P67 WHITMORE TM, 1992, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V82, P402 WILKEN G, 1987, GOOD FARMERS TRADITI YATES L, 1981, MEXICOS AGR DILEMMA NR 39 TC 7 J9 CLIMATIC CHANGE BP 19 EP 36 PY 2000 PD APR VL 45 IS 1 GA 323WX UT ISI:000087588900004 ER PT J AU Wilbanks, TJ Kane, SM Leiby, PN Perlack, RD Settle, C Shogren, JF Smith, JB TI Possible responses to global climate change - Integrating mitigation and adaptation SO ENVIRONMENT LA English DT Article C1 Oak Ridge Natl Lab, Div Environm Sci, Oak Ridge, TN 37831 USA. Natl Sci Fdn, Directorate Social Behav & Econ Sci, Arlington, VA 22230 USA. Univ Tulsa, Tulsa, OK 74104 USA. Univ Wyoming, Laramie, WY 82071 USA. Stratus Consulting Inc, Boulder, CO USA. RP Wilbanks, TJ, Oak Ridge Natl Lab, Div Environm Sci, POB 2008, Oak Ridge, TN 37831 USA. CR 1999, OUR COMMON JOURNEY T *DUTCH NAT RES PRO, 2002, CLIM CHANG NETH CONS *EN INF AG, 2000, WORLD CARB DIOX EM C *EN INF AG, 2003, INT EN AR 2000 *HARTL CTR CLIM PR, 2000, REG CLIM SIM *NAT ASS SYN TEAM, 2000, CLIM CHANG IMP US *ORNL SAT, IN PRESS POSS VULN C *PEW CTR GLOB CLIM, 2002, CLIM CHANG ACT US *UN DEV PROGR NAT, IN PRESS AD POL FRAM *UN DEV PROGR NAT, IN PRESS ADAPTATION *US DOE, 1997, TECHN OPP RED US GRE CLARK WC, 2000, 20012 HARV U KENN SC HOUGHTON J, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, P13 KANE SM, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P75 KATES RW, 2003, ENVIRONMENT APR, P12 MCCARTHY J, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 ROZENWEIG C, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE GLOBA RUTH M, 2002, W REG SCI ASS MONT C SMITH JB, 2001, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V50, P1 SPETH JG, 2002, ENVIRONOMENT SEP, P16 WILBANKS TJ, IN PRESS INTEGRATED NR 21 TC 1 J9 ENVIRONMENT BP 28 EP 38 PY 2003 PD JUN VL 45 IS 5 GA 682LF UT ISI:000183092600004 ER PT J AU ORiordan, T TI Economic challenges for lake management SO HYDROBIOLOGIA LA English DT Article C1 Univ E Anglia, Sch Environm Sci, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. RP ORiordan, T, Univ E Anglia, Sch Environm Sci, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. AB Restoring lakes from a degraded state is a costly and risky enterprise. It is costly partly because 'rewinding' the cycles of degradation involves great scientific uncertainties. Therefore, the only way forward is by careful, expensive monitoring, and much adaptation of treatment as the evidence unfolds. This process requires much patience and political commitment. Therefore, the economic challenge is to find a relationship between the ecological exploration of restoration techniques and the economic justification of the outcome. Unfortunately, the basis of that justification is an economy that creates environmental degradation. So there is a cruel circularity in the economic appraisal: the process of benefit calculation is predicted on an economy that is, at present, non sustainable. This suggests that there should be another approach to economic valuation, based more on participatory processes of involving interests with a stake in the outcome and in the gains and losses that will inevitably be incurred in reaching the outcome of lake restoration. In that process, ecological science plays a vital role of explaining possible future pathways for restoration, and the dilemma of uncertainty is handled by creating various scenarios rather than models. The real challenge, therefore, is to devise a fair and full process of bargaining over lake futures, within which both ecology and economics play important, but subsidiary roles. CR BATEMAN I, 1995, ENV SCI ENV MANAGEME, P45 CLARK J, 1996, ENV VALUATION PUBLIC DESVOUSGES WH, 1987, J ENVIRON ECON MANAG, V14, P248 GEORGIOU S, 1998, ENVIRON PLANN A, V30, P577 MADGWICK J, 1999, HYDROBIOLOGIA, V395, P309 MITCHELL RC, 1985, USING SURVEYS VALUE NORTON BG, 1994, ENVIRON VALUE, V3, P311 PHILLIPS G, 1999, HYDROBIOLOGIA, V395, P61 RODGERS M, 1998, THESIS C STUART U AU NR 9 TC 0 J9 HYDROBIOLOGIA BP 13 EP 18 PY 1999 PD FEB VL 396 GA 238TL UT ISI:000082727900003 ER PT J AU HAAS, JD TI HUMAN ADAPTABILITY APPROACH TO NUTRITIONAL ASSESSMENT - A BOLIVIAN EXAMPLE SO FEDERATION PROCEEDINGS LA English DT Article RP HAAS, JD, CORNELL UNIV,DIV NUTR SCI,ITHACA,NY 14853. CR 1972, WHO TECHNICAL REPORT, V503 1976, HLTH VITAL STATISTIC, V11 1977, WORLD FOOD NUTRITION BEARD JL, 1980, THESIS CORNELL U ITH COLLINS KJ, 1977, HUMAN ADAPTABILITY C COOK JD, 1971, BLOOD, V38, P591 FOMON SJ, 1976, DHEW HSA76562 PUBL FRISANCHO AR, 1969, HUM BIOL, V41, P365 FRISANCHO AR, 1970, AM J PHYS ANTHROPOL, V32, P279 FRISANCHO AR, 1975, SCIENCE, V187, P313 FRISANCHO AR, 1979, HUMAN ADAPTATION FUN GOMEZ F, 1956, J TROP PEDIATRICS, V2, P77 HAAS JD, REV I B BIOL ALTURA HAAS JD, 1976, SOC BIOL PREDICTORS, P161 HAAS JD, 1977, ANNU REV ANTHROPOL, V6, P69 MAZESS RB, 1975, PHYSL ANTHR, P167 OWEN, 1977, AM J PUBLIC HEALTH, V67, P865 SAUBERLICH HE, 1974, LABORATORY TESTS ASS WATERLOW JC, 1972, BRIT MED J, V3, P566 NR 19 TC 10 J9 FED PROC BP 2577 EP 2582 PY 1981 VL 40 IS 11 GA MF674 UT ISI:A1981MF67400008 ER PT J AU Phoofolo, P TI Face to face with famine: the BaSotho and the rinderpest, 1897-1899 SO JOURNAL OF SOUTHERN AFRICAN STUDIES LA English DT Review C1 Univ Transkei, Dept Hist, Umtata, South Africa. RP Phoofolo, P, Univ Transkei, Dept Hist, Umtata, South Africa. AB Between 1896 and 1898, a devastating cattle panzootic of rinderpest killed over 95 per cent of African herds throughout Southern Africa. This obliteration of the bastion of African societies' economy threatened to provoke an unprecedented rural crisis. The rinderpest was equivalent to the 'Great Wall Street Crash' in that it threatened to wipe out the only capital of the people and to restrict future capital accumulation. Despite its acknowledged importance in the unfolding of historical processes in Southern Africa in the closing decades of the nineteenth century, this catastrophic panzootic remains an under-researched topic. This article traces the history of the rinderpest and examines the responses of the victims in their attempts to survive the catastrophe. The findings suggest that despite widespread negative impact, the rinderpest did not precipitate a major famine. Its effects, exacerbated by other accompanying ecological and pestilential disasters, stopped at creating a critical food shortage. As such, the 1896-1898 outbreak of rinderpest in Basutoland proved to be a temporary setback. Society did not collapse and recovery was quick. It is doubtful if the panzootic began any new trends in the history of Basutoland, although it certainly quickened those already in process. 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WOOKEY, 1898, COMMUNICATION 1110 WORBOYS M, 1991, MED HIST, V35, P308 WRIGLEY TM, 1981, CLIMATE HIST STUDIES YAMANOUCHI K, 1980, JAPANESE J MED SCI B, V33, P53 NR 218 TC 0 J9 J S AFR STUD BP 503 EP 527 PY 2003 PD JUN VL 29 IS 2 GA 684AB UT ISI:000183182300010 ER PT J AU Ramaker, TAB Meuleman, AFM Bernhardi, L Cirkel, G TI Climate change and drinking water production in The Netherlands: a flexible approach SO WATER SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY LA English DT Article C1 Kiwa Water Res, Water Resources Dept, NL-3430 BB Nieuwegein, Netherlands. RP Ramaker, TAB, Kiwa Water Res, Water Resources Dept, POB 1072, NL-3430 BB Nieuwegein, Netherlands. AB Climate change increases water system dynamics through temperature changes, changes in precipitation patterns, evaporation, water quality and water storage in ice packs. Water system dependent economical stakeholders, such as drinking water companies in The Netherlands, have to cope with consequences of climate change, e.g. floods and water shortages in river systems, upconing brackish ground water, salt water intrusion, increasing peak demands and microbiological activity. In the past decades, however, both water systems and drinking water production have become more and more inflexible; water systems have been heavily regulated and the drinking water supply has grown into an inflexible, but cheap and reliable, system. Flexibility and adaptivity are solutions to overcome climate change related consequences. Flexible adaptive strategies for drinking water production comprise new sources for drinking water production, application of storage concepts in the short term, and a redesign of large centralised systems, including flexible treatment plants, in the long term. Transition to flexible concepts will take decades because investment depreciation periods of assets are long. This implies that long-term strategies within an indicated time path have to be developed. These strategies must be based on thorough knowledge of current assets to seize opportunities for change. CR *NAT COMM WAT MAN, 2000, WAT MAN POL 21 CENT *NAT I COAST MAN, 2003, ENV OUTL 2003 *ROYAL NAT MET I, 2003, CLIM NETH 2003 HUMMELEN AM, 2001, ASR TECHNIQUES DRINK KAPPELHOF J, 2003, BRACKISH WATER SOURC MEULEMAN AFM, 2004, FLEX WATER CONCEPT F RAMAKER AB, 2004, UNPUB FLEX WATER STUYFZAND PJ, 2002, RISKS UPCONING BRACK THOMAS CD, 2004, NATURE, V427, P145 VANDENAKKER J, 2004, LANDWERK, P5 NR 10 TC 1 J9 WATER SCI TECHNOL BP 37 EP 44 PY 2005 VL 51 IS 5 GA 931CW UT ISI:000229464400008 ER PT J AU EMBER, CR EMBER, M TI RESOURCE UNPREDICTABILITY, MISTRUST, AND WAR - A CROSS-CULTURAL-STUDY SO JOURNAL OF CONFLICT RESOLUTION LA English DT Article RP EMBER, CR, CUNY HUNTER COLL,NEW YORK,NY 10021. AB The results of this cross-cultural study suggest that war may be caused mostly by a fear of nature and a partially resultant fear of others. A history of unpredictable natural disasters strongly predicts more war, as does socialization for mistrust (but less strongly). It seems that people, particularly in nonstate societies, may try to protect themselves against future disasters by going to war to take resources from enemies. CR BARRY H, 1976, ETHNOLOGY, V15, P83 BOLTON R, 1973, BEHAV SCI NOTES, V8, P319 BOLTON R, 1973, ETHNOLOGY, V12, P227 BROUDE GJ, 1976, ETHNOLOGY, V15, P409 COHEN A, 1990, AM ANTHROPOL, V92, P474 DIVALE WT, 1976, AM ANTHROPOL, V78, P521 DURHAM WH, 1976, Q REV BIOL, V51, P385 ECKHARDT W, 1973, PEACE RES, V5, P5 EMBER CR, HRAF W02 WORK PAP EMBER CR, HRAF W03 WORK PAP EMBER CR, HRAF W04 WORK PAP EMBER CR, 1975, BEHAV SCI RES, V10, P199 EMBER CR, 1978, SEX ROLES, V5, P657 EMBER CR, 1992, WORLD POLITICS, V44 EMBER M, 1971, AM ANTHROPOL, V73, P571 EMBER M, 1982, AM ANTHROPOL, V84, P645 EMBER M, 1985, BEHAV SCI RES, V19, P1 ERIKSON EH, 1963, CHILDHOOD SOC FJELLMAN SM, 1979, BEHAV SCI RES, V14, P189 GROSS DR, 1975, AM ANTHROPOL, V77, P526 HARRIS M, 1974, COWS PIGS WARS WITCH HARRIS M, 1984, WARFARE CULTURE ENV, P111 JERVIS R, 1976, PERCEPTION MISPERCEP LABOVITZ S, 1967, SOC FORCES, V46, P151 LABOVITZ S, 1970, AM SOCIOL REV, V35, P515 LEBOW RN, 1981, PEACE WAR LEVINE RA, 1980, WAR SYSTEM INTERDISC, P163 MEGGITT M, 1977, BLOOD IS THEIR ARGUM MURDOCK GP, 1967, ETHNOLOGY, V6, P109 MURDOCK GP, 1969, ETHNOLOGY, V8, P329 MURDOCK GP, 1973, ETHNOLOGY, V12, P379 OTTERBEIN K, 1989, EVOLUTION WAR CROSS OTTERBEIN KF, 1965, AM ANTHROPOL, V67, P1470 PRESCOTT JW, 1975, B ATOMIC SCI NOV, P10 RAPPAPORT RA, 1967, PIGS ANCESTORS RITUA, V1, P1 ROSS MH, 1986, POLIT PSYCHOL, V7, P427 RUSSELL EW, 1972, BEHAV SCI NOTES, V7, P275 SILLITOE P, 1977, ETHNOLOGY, V16, P71 SINGER JD, 1980, ANNU REV SOCIOL, V6, P349 TVERSKY A, 1974, SCIENCE, V185, P1124 VAYDA A, 1967, WAR ANTHR ARMED CONF, P85 VAYDA AP, 1976, WAR ECOLOGICAL PERSP VAYDA AP, 1989, J ANTHROPOL RES, V45, P159 WHITING JWM, 1954, HDB SOCIAL PSYCHOL, P523 WILKINSON L, 1988, SYSTAT SYSTEM STATIS NR 45 TC 28 J9 J CONFLICT RESOLUT BP 242 EP 262 PY 1992 PD JUN VL 36 IS 2 GA HY466 UT ISI:A1992HY46600002 ER PT J AU Smit, B Burton, I Klein, RJT Street, R TI The Science of Adaptation: a framework for assessment SO MITIGATION ADAPTATIO LA English DT Article C1 University of Guelph, Department of Geography, Ontario, Canada University of Toronto, Environment Adaptation Research Group, Toronto, Canada Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany Atmospheric Environment Service, Environmental Adaptation Research Group, Ontario, Canada AB This paper outlines what is meant by "adaptation" to climate change, and how it might be addressed in the IPCC Assessments. Two roles of adaptation in the climate change field are identified: adaptation as part of impact assessment (where the key question is: what adaptations are likely?), and adaptation as part of the policy response (where the central question is: what adaptations are recommended?). The concept of adaptation has been adopted in several fields including climate impact assessment and policy development, risk management, and natural hazards research. A framework for systematically defining adaptations is based on three questions: (i) adaptation to what? (ii) who or what adapts? and (iii) how does adaptation occur? The paper demonstrates that, for adaptation purposes, climate extremes and variability are integral parts of climate change, along with shifts in mean conditions. Attributes for differentiating adaptations include purposefulness, timing, temporal and spatial scope, effects, form and performance. The framework provides a guide for the treatment of adaptation in the IPCC assessments, both in the assessment of impacts and in the evaluation of adaptive policy options CR ADAMS RM, 1995, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V30, P147 BIJLSMA L, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, P289 BURTON I, 1996, ADAPTING CLIMATE CHA, P55 BURTON I, 1997, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V36, P185 CARTER TP, 1994, IPCC TECHNICAL GUIDE DEFREITAS CR, 1989, POPULATION DISASTER DEVRIES J, 1985, CLIMATE IMPACT ASSES, P273 DOWNING TE, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE EXTRE EASTERLING WE, 1993, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V24, P23 EASTERLING WE, 1996, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V80, P1 FANKHAUSER S, 1997, 13 GLOB ENV FAC FANKHAUSER S, 1996, ADAPTATING CLIMATE C, P80 FREDERICK KD, 1997, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V37, P141 FUKUI H, 1979, P WORLD CLIM C GEN, P426 GLANTZ M, 1988, SOC RESPONSES CLIMAT GOKLANY IM, 1995, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V30, P427 HEATHCOTE RL, 1985, CLIMATE IMPACT ASSES, P369 HEWITT K, 1971, HAZARDOUSNESS PLACE HEWITT K, 1997, REGIONS RISK GEOGRAP, V1, P1 HULME M, 1995, ENERG POLICY, V23, P347 HURD BH, 1997, IMPACT CLIMATE CHANG JEPMA CJ, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, P225 KANE SM, 1992, EC ISSUES GLOBAL CLI, P117 KATES RW, 1985, CLIMATE IMPACT ASSES, P3 KLEIN RJT, 1999, AMBIO, V28, P182 KLEIN RJT, 1997, ADAPTATION CLIMATE C KRANKINA ON, 1997, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V36, P197 LEEMANS R, 1992, J SCI IND RES INDIA, V51, P709 LEWANDROWSKI JK, 1992, EC ISSUES GLOBAL CLI, P132 MACDONALD GM, 1993, NATURE, V361, P243 MARKHAM A, 1996, ADAPTING CLIMATE CHA, P384 MEARNS LO, 1984, J CLIM APPL METEOROL, V23, P1601 OLSTHOORN AA, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE EXTRE, P185 PARRY ML, 1986, SUSTAINABLE DEV BIOS, P378 PETERS RL, 1992, GLOBAL WARMING BIOL RIEBSAME WE, 1991, GREAT PLAINS RES, V1, P133 ROSE C, 1991, CAN NATURE SURVIVE G ROSENZWEIG C, 1994, NATURE, V367, P133 SMIT B, 1993, ADAPTATION CLIMATIC SMIT B, 1996, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V33, P7 SMIT B, 1997, CAN GEOGR-GEOGR CAN, V41, P429 SMIT B, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P223 SMITH JB, 1996, WATER AIR SOIL POLL, V92, P229 SMITH K, 1996, ENV HAZARDS ASSESSIN SMITH JB, 1996, CLIMATE RES, V6, P193 SMITHERS J, 1997, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V7, P129 SONKA ST, 1987, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V11, P291 SONKA ST, 1992, EC ISSUES GLOBAL CLI, P402 SPRENGERS SA, 1994, BIODIVERSITY CLIMA 1 STAKHIV E, 1993, EVALUATION IPCC ADAP TITUS JG, 1990, J AM PLANN ASSOC, V56, P311 TOL RSJ, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE EXTRE, P17 VISCUSI WK, 1992, EC ISSUES GLOBAL CLI, P414 WATSON RT, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, V1, P1 WIGLEY TML, 1985, NATURE, V316, P106 YOHE GW, 1996, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V32, P387 NR 46 TC 0 BP 199 EP 213 PY 1999 VL 4 IS 4 ER PT J AU ZIMMERER, KS TI HUMAN-GEOGRAPHY AND THE NEW ECOLOGY - THE PROSPECT AND PROMISE OF INTEGRATION SO ANNALS OF THE ASSOCIATION OF AMERICAN GEOGRAPHERS LA English DT Article RP ZIMMERER, KS, UNIV WISCONSIN,DEPT GEOG,MADISON,WI 53706. AB The ''new ecology'' underscores the role of nonequilibrium conditions in biophysical environments, a reorientation of biological ecology based in part on biogeography. This paper describes the contributions of the ''new ecology'' and examines their implications for the analysis of biophysical environments in human geography, the most notable of which is a reformulation of certain key ecological postulates (generalized carrying capacity, area-biodiversity postulate, biodiversity-stability postulate). The irony of these reformulations is that our advanced understandings of biophysical environments come at the expense of the perceived certainty of prediction and possible justification for human-induced environmental degradation. These difficulties are not insuperable, however, as is readily demonstrated by the applications of the ''new ecology'' in landscape ecology and agroecology. Their example may prove instructive as geographers integrate the ''new ecology's'' perspectives on biophysical environments and interpret the relations between environmental conservation and economic development. 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V45, P229 WHITNEY GG, 1987, J ECOL, V75, P667 WHITTAKER RH, 1975, COMMUNITIES ECOSYSTE WHYTE AVT, 1986, GEOGRAPHY RESOURCES, V2, P240 WINTERHALDER B, 1980, HUM ECOL, V8, P135 WOLF E, 1972, ANTHR Q, V45, P201 WOLF ER, 1982, EUROPE PEOPLE HIST WORSTER D, 1977, NATURES EC ROOTS ECO WORSTER D, 1988, ENDS EARTH PERSPECTI WORSTER D, 1990, ENV HIST REV, V14, P1 ZIMMERER KS, IN PRESS CONCEPTUAL ZIMMERER KS, 1991, J BIOGEOGR, V18, P165 ZIMMERER KS, 1991, J ETHNOBIOL, V11, P23 ZIMMERER KS, 1994, J SOIL WATER CONSERV, V49, P29 NR 188 TC 58 J9 ANN ASSN AMER GEOGR BP 108 EP 125 PY 1994 PD MAR VL 84 IS 1 GA NE059 UT ISI:A1994NE05900007 ER PT J AU Kawamura, H TI Symbolic and political ecology among contemporary Nez Perce Indians in Idaho, USA: Functions and meanings of hunting, fishing, and gathering practices SO AGRICULTURE AND HUMAN VALUES LA English DT Article C1 Univ Findlay, Findlay, OH 45840 USA. RP Kawamura, H, Univ Findlay, 1000 N Main St, Findlay, OH 45840 USA. AB Indigenous ecologies in industrial societies need immediate attention in light of the ongoing debate on indigenous resource rights and decreasing biodiversity. This paper examines the functions and meanings of hunting, fishing, and gathering activities among contemporary Nez Perce Indians in Idaho, USA. The collected data were analyzed with Pierre Bourdieu's (1977) concepts of "symbolic capital" and "practice" within the framework of political ecology. The results clearly demonstrate that hunting, fishing, and gathering practices play significant roles not only in social and religious but also economic and political senses within the contemporary Nez Perce society. This study suggests that investigation of indigenous ecologies in industrial societies take a synthesized approach between idealist and materialist perspectives. 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Univ Reading, Dept Agr, Reading RG6 6AT, Berks, England. RP Challinor, AJ, Univ Reading, Dept Meteorol, Ctr Global Atmospher Modelling, Reading RG6 6BB, Berks, England. AB The importance of temperature in the determination of the yield of an annual crop (groundnut; Arachis hypogaea L. in India) was assessed. Simulations from a regional climate model (PRECIS) were used with a crop model (GLAM) to examine crop growth under simulated current (1961-1990) and future (2071-2100) climates. Two processes were examined: the response of crop duration to mean temperature and the response of seed-set to extremes of temperature. The relative importance of, and interaction between, these two processes was examined for a number of genotypic characteristics, which were represented by using different values of crop model parameters derived from experiments. The impact of mean and extreme temperatures varied geographically, and depended upon the simulated genotypic properties. High temperature stress was not a major determinant of simulated yields in the current climate, but affected the mean and variability of yield under climate change in two regions which had contrasting statistics of daily maximum temperature. Changes in mean temperature had a similar impact on mean yield to that of high temperature stress in some locations and its effects were more widespread. Where the optimal temperature for development was exceeded, the resulting increase in duration in some simulations fully mitigated the negative impacts of extreme temperatures when sufficient water was available for the extended growing period. For some simulations the reduction in mean yield between the current and future climates was as large as 70%, indicating the importance of genotypic adaptation to changes in both means and extremes of temperature under climate change. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 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RP Papadopol, CS, Ontario Forest Res Inst, Ontario Minist Nat Resources, 1235 Queen St E, Sault St Marie, ON P6A 2E5, Canada. AB This paper summarizes current knowledge about the optical properties of greenhouse gases and general climate-warming influences. It explains the influence of this new phenomenon on the major ecosystems of the world, and considers the process of deforestation. It then analyzes the warming trends in Ontario based on data from two weather stations with continuous records of more than 120 years, to determine the rate of warming in the Great Lakes-St. Lawrence Region. The results indicate a temperature increase of about 0.76 degrees C per century and an 8% increase in annual total precipitation. Current climate change models indicate that for a scenario of 2 x CO2 levels some general, probable prognoses can be made, including a temperature increase of up to 4.5 degrees C, which might be disastrous for existing forest ecosystems. Specifically, the consequences of climate warming on (a) northward shifts of ecological conditions, (b) forest productivity, and (c) forest physiology and health, are examined. In the context of global warming, the paper then recommends practical management measures necessary to ensure adaptation of existing forest ecosystems to the warming that is already developing. These measures are intended to provide a no-risk environment for existing forests until rotation age. Next, a wide range of mitigative measures is examined with a view to securing the longterm preservation of forest ecosystems to avoid major ecological disruptions and, gradually, to reverse climate warming. Application of these measures requires international consensus, but countries that apply these recommendations first have a chance to profit from them due to the "CO2 fertilization" effect. 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RP Devereux, S, Univ Sussex, Inst Dev Studies, Poverty Team, Brighton BN1 9RH, E Sussex, England. AB With an estimated 798 million people currently "undernourished", meeting the Millennium Development Goal of halving hunger by 2015 is already looking difficult. How will climate change affect this challenge? Climate change models predict that those likely to be most adversely affected are the regions already most vulnerable to food insecurity, notably Africa, which stands to lose substantial agricultural land. An additional threat is the uncertainty climate change brings, including negative interactions between gradual and abrupt changes. However, adaptive behaviour and new technology have not been factored into many climate models. If appropriate mitigation and adaptation measures were implemented now, hunger could be substantially reduced, regardless of climate change. But adaptation comes at high economic cost and those who need it most can afford it least. The article concludes that in order to effectively meet the challenge of climate change, political responses will be just as important as technological change. CR *IDS, 2002, IDS B, V33 *IPCC, 2001, WORKSH GROUP 1 INT P *UN SCN, 2004, 5 WHO *WORLD BANK, 2000, WORLD DEV REP 2000 2 ADGER WN, 2003, PROGR DEV STUDIES, V3, P179 ALEXANDRATOS N, 1995, WORLD AGR 2010 FAO S ALFSEN KH, 1998, POLICY NOTE, P3 BERGKAMP G, 2003, CHANGE ADAPTATION WA BUTT T, 2003, FOOD SECURITY IMPLIC CHEN RS, 1994, FOOD POLICY, V19, P192 CLAY E, 2003, CLIMATIC VARIABILITY COX G, 1981, FAMINE ITS CAUSES EF DAVIDSON O, 2003, CLIM POLICY, V31, S97 DAVIS M, 2001, LATE VICTORIAN HOLOC DESANKER PV, 2001, CLIMATE RES, V17, P93 DOOS BR, 1999, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V9, P261 DYSON T, 1996, POPULATION FOOD GLOB FISCHER G, 2002, CLIMATE CHANGE AGR V MATHUR A, 2004, ADAPTATION MOSAIC SA MAXWELL S, 2001, FOOD SECURITY SUB SA MENDELSOHN R, 2000, CLIMATE CHANG IMPACT NICHOLSON SE, 2001, CLIMATE RES, V17, P123 NORSE D, 1994, FOOD POLICY, V19, P133 PARRY ML, 1999, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V9, PS51 PINSTRUPANDERSE.P, 1999, 2020 VISION FOOD POL SCHWARTZ P, 2003, ABRUPT CLIMATE CHANG SEN AK, 1986, LLOYDS BANK REV APR SIURUA H, 2002, IDS BULL-I DEV STUD, V33, P88 NR 28 TC 0 J9 IDS BULL-INST DEVELOP STUD BP 22 EP + PY 2004 PD JUL VL 35 IS 3 GA 844HK UT ISI:000223148700004 ER PT J AU McGranahan, G Satterthwaite, D TI The environmental dimensions of sustainable development for cities SO GEOGRAPHY LA English DT Article C1 Int Inst Environm & Dev, Human Settlements Program, London WC1H 0DD, England. RP McGranahan, G, Int Inst Environm & Dev, Human Settlements Program, 3 Endsleigh St, London WC1H 0DD, England. AB This article compares and contrasts the environmental problems faced by low- middle- and high income cities and what this implies for each in meeting the environmental goals of sustainable development. It reviews the evidence in regard to how air, water and waste problems differ according to cities' average incomes, This shows that household and neighbourhood level problems such as indoor air pollution and inadequate Provision for household water supplies, sanitation and waste removal are most severe in low-income cities, and that their burdens fall primarily on the urban poor. Affluent cities contribute much more to global stresses such as carbon emissions and aggregate waste generation, whose burdens fall far more widely and are more likely to affect future generations. The article also discusses other important influences on the severity, of cities' environmental burdens - in particular intra-urban inequality, and the quality of governance. The article ends with a discussion of whether the environmental interests of the currently, deprived are complementary to or in conflict with those of future generations, and the potential role of an in reconciling these interests. 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AB This paper describes the regional climate change scenarios that are recommended for use in the U.S. Country Studies Program (CSP) and evaluates how well four general circulation models (GCMs) simulate current climate over Europe. Under the umbrella of the CSP, 50 countries with varying skills and experience in developing climate change scenarios are assessing vulnerability and adaptation. We considered the use of general circulation models, analogue warm periods, and incremental scenarios as the basis for creating climate change scenarios. We recommended that participants in the CSP use a combination of GCM based scenarios and incremental scenarios. The GCMs, in spite of their many deficiencies, are the best source of information about regional climate change. Incremental scenarios help identify sensitivities to changes in a particular meteorological variable and ensure that a wide range of regional climate change scenarios are considered. We recommend using the period 1951-1980 as baseline climate because it was a relatively stable climate period globally. Average monthly changes from the GCMs and the incremental changes in climate variables are combined with the historical record to produce scenarios. The scenarios do not consider changes in interannual, daily, or subgrid scale variability. Countries participating in the Country Studies Program were encouraged to compare the GCMs' estimates of current climate with actual long-term climate means. In this paper, we compare output of four GCMs (CCCM, GFDL, UKMO, and GISS) with observed climate over Europe by performing a spatial correlation analysis for temperature and precipitation, by statistically comparing spatial patterns averaged climate estimates from the GCMs with observed climate, and by examining how well the models estimate seasonal patterns of temperature and precipitation. In Europe, the GISS and CCCM models best simulate current temperature, whereas the GISS and UK89 models, and the CCCM model, best simulate precipitation in defined northern and southern regions, respectively. 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Harvard Univ, Museum Comparat Zool, Cambridge, MA USA. RP Epstein, PR, Harvard Univ, Sch Med, Ctr Hlth & Global Environm, Landmark Ctr, 401 Pk Dr, Boston, MA 02215 USA. AB Examination of systemic characteristics can improve assessments of the global climate system's vulnerability to abrupt change and growing instabilities already suggest an urgency for precautionary action. 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SO CLIMATE POLICY LA English DT Article C1 Univ Sussex, Inst Dev Studies, Brighton BN1 9RH, E Sussex, England. RP Yamin, F, Univ Sussex, Inst Dev Studies, Brighton BN1 9RH, E Sussex, England. AB This article reviews the European Union's stance and policies on climate change adaptation and argues that developing a coherent long-term European strategy on climate change post-2012 will require the European Union to focus more strongly on adaptation issues than has hitherto been the case. It suggests that the EU should examine the dissonance between its prescriptions for integrating adaptation within the EU with its prescriptions to developing countries to mainstream adaptation. The EU should avoid a carrot-and-stick approach to adaptation funding and should focus on identifying common institutional and learning challenges with developing countries. 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Univ Toronto, Inst Environm Studies, Environm Adaptat Res Grp, Toronto, ON M6J 3E9, Canada. Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res, D-14412 Potsdam, Germany. RP Smit, B, Univ Guelph, Dept Geog, Guelph, ON N1G 2W1, Canada. AB Adaptation to climate variability and change is important both for impact assessment (to estimate adaptations which are likely to occur) and for policy development (to advise on or prescribe adaptations). This paper proposes an "anatomy of adaptation" to systematically specify and differentiate adaptations, based upon three questions: (i) adapt to what? (ii) who or what adapts? and (iii) how does adaptation occur? Climatic stimuli include changes in long-term mean conditions and variability about means, both current and future, and including extremes. Adaptation depends fundamentally on the characteristics of the system of interest, including its sensitivities and vulnerabilities. The nature of adaptation processes and forms can be distinguished by numerous attributes including timing, purposefulness, and effect. The paper notes the contribution of conceptual and numerical models and empirical studies to the understanding of adaptation, and outlines approaches to the normative evaluation of adaptation measures and strategies. 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UNIV PHILIPPINES,LOS BANOS,PHILIPPINES. NAMIRA,MANILA,PHILIPPINES. CAMBER CORP,WASHINGTON,DC 20005. US COUNTRY STUDIES PROGRAM,WASHINGTON,DC 20585. ASIAN DEV BANK,ORTIGAS CTR,PASIG CITY,METRO MANILA,PHILIPPINES. INST NACL INVEST AGR,CIFOR,MADRID 28040,SPAIN. UNIV MARYLAND,DEPT GEOG,LAB COASTAL RES,COLLEGE PK,MD 20742. HAGLER BAILLY CONSULTING INC,BOULDER,CO 80306. RP Amadore, LA, PAGASA,1424 QUEZON AVE,QUEZON 1100,PHILIPPINES. AB The Regional Workshop on Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment in Asia and the Pacific met to present and discuss assessments of vulnerability and adaptation to climate change in agriculture, forests, coastal resources, and water resources. Discussions were held in breakout and plenary sessions about the state of the science for vulnerability and adaptation assessment conclusions that can be drawn about the vulnerability of the region to climate change, and where future research efforts should be directed. The workshop concluded that sea level rise is of greatest concern to island and coastal nations in the region, climate change will have a significant effect on agriculture, water resources are sensitive to changes in average climate conditions and to tropical monsoons and cyclones, and forests could be significantly affected by climate change. The workshop recommended that efforts to improve general circulation models continue and that countries in the region cooperate on the analyses of vulnerability and addressing adaptation measures. The workshop also concluded that results of vulnerability and adaptation assessments should be presented to policy makers and the public and that assessments continue to be undertaken to improve our understanding of the issue. NR 0 TC 3 J9 WATER AIR SOIL POLLUT BP 1 EP 12 PY 1996 PD SEP VL 92 IS 1-2 GA VM538 UT ISI:A1996VM53800003 ER PT J AU Johnston, T Chiotti, QP TI Climate change and the adaptability of agriculture: A review SO JOURNAL OF THE AIR & WASTE MANAGEMENT ASSOCIATION LA English DT Article C1 Univ Lethbridge, Dept Geog, Lethbridge, AB TLK 3M4, Canada. Univ Toronto, Inst Environm Studies, Adaptat & Impacts Res Grp, Toronto, ON, Canada. RP Johnston, T, Univ Lethbridge, Dept Geog, Lethbridge, AB TLK 3M4, Canada. AB The assessment of climate change impacts on agriculture has emerged as a recognizable field of research over the past 15 years or so. In a relatively short period, this area of work has undergone a number of important conceptual and methodological developments. Among many questions that have been debated are the adaptability of agriculture to climate change and the importance of land management adjustments in reducing the adverse effects of climate change. In turn, this latter focus has spawned a discussion regarding the nature of adaptation and the ability of agriculture to respond to sudden and rapid climatic changes. In this paper we present an overview of this debate. It is argued that the first generation of climate change impact studies generally ignored the possibility that agriculturalists may adjust their farming practices in order to cope with climate change or to take advantage of new production opportunities. This conceptual oversight has been largely eliminated over the past five years or so. However, questions remain surrounding the likelihood that various adaptive strategies will actually be deployed in particular places. In this paper, we stress the importance of studying adaptation in the context of decision-making at the individual farm level and beyond. 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Univ Padua, Dipartimento Sci Zootechn, I-35020 Legnaro, Italy. RP Giupponi, C, Univ Milan, Dipartimento Prod Vegetale, Via Celoria 2, I-20133 Milan, Italy. AB This paper presents a synthesis of the results of the ACCELERATES project (Assessing Climate Change Effects on Land Use and Ecosystems from Regional Analysis to the European Scale), obtained in the case study of the Belluno province (north-east Italy), a context chosen as representative of the Alpine area. Selected results of the analysis of the relationships between future scenarios of change, farming systems, land use and biodiversity are presented. An initial historical analysis of the dynamics of land use with respect to the agricultural, socio-economic and demographic dynamics identified the main drivers of change and the positive and negative factors for conservation of the rural land and of biodiversity. In a subsequent stage the scenarios of future climate and land use changes were used to analyse the future for the species selected as indicators of biodiversity in the studied area. The results obtained provided useful information for the identification of suitable agri-environmental policies at the local scale. Maintenance of the livestock production systems typical of mountain agriculture is shown to be the key factor for contrasting land abandonment and the consequent expansion of woodlands, with negative effects in terms of simplification of landscape and impacts on species of naturalistic interest. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *ACCELERATES, 2004, FIN REP *IPCC, 2000, SUMM POL EM SCEN *ISTAT, 1981, 12 CENS GEN POP AB *ISTAT, 1982, 3 CENS GEN AGR *ISTAT, 2001, 14 CENS GEN POP AB *ISTAT, 2002, 5 CENS GEN AGR *REG VEN GIUNT REG, 1985, CART VOC FAUN CUR DI *SAS STAT, 1990, US GUID VERS 6, V2 *WCED, 1987, OUR COMM FUT ABILDTRUP J, 2006, ENVIRON SCI POLICY, V9, P101 DELFAVERO R, 2002, SINTESI SISTEMA INFO EASTMAN JR, 2004, IDRISI KILIMANJARO G GIUPPONI C, 2005, PROGETTO PROGETTO AC MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 MITCHELL TD, 2004, COMPREHENSIVE SET HI PAOLETTI MG, 1999, AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON, V74, P1 PEBESMA EJ, 1998, COMPUT GEOSCI, V24, P17 ROMERO C, 1989, MULTIPLE CRITERIA AN ROSATO P, 2003, CLIMATE CHANGE MEDIT SALA G, 1989, ALLA SCOPERTA TERRIT NR 20 TC 2 J9 ENVIRON SCI POLICY BP 163 EP 173 PY 2006 VL 9 IS 2 GA 028TG UT ISI:000236511100006 ER PT J AU Watanabe, JM Smuts, BB TI Explaining religion without explaining it away: Trust, truth, and the evolution of cooperation in Roy A. Rappaport's "the obvious aspects of ritual" SO AMERICAN ANTHROPOLOGIST LA English DT Article C1 Dartmouth Coll, Dept Anthropol, Hanover, NH 03755 USA. Univ Michigan, Dept Psychol, Ann Arbor, MI 48109 USA. RP Watanabe, JM, Dartmouth Coll, Dept Anthropol, Hanover, NH 03755 USA. AB Moving beyond the ecological functionalism of Pigs for the Ancestors, Roy Rappaport's subsequent work on ritual explored how the "obvious aspects" of ritual's formalism and the need to perform it literally embody in its performers expressions of sanctity and truth that counter the threats of lying and alternative inherent in symbolic communication. He recognized that symbolic meaning and truth presuppose social cooperation and trust between individuals, and ritual serves uniquely to reaffirm this mutuality at the level of both individual behavior and conventional meaning. Through a study of male greetings among olive baboons (Papio cynocephalus anubis), this paper illustrates how ritual in Rappaport's sense may indeed intensify cooperation in socially complex but nonlinguistic contexts by establishing a behaviorally transparent means of certifying otherwise opaque individual intentions. Thus, not only may ritual sanctify symbolic communication, but it also may have played a crucial role in its evolution. 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Univ Delaware, Ctr Study Marine Policy, Annapolis, MD 21401 USA. RP Shea, EL, Inst Global Environm & Soc, Ctr Applicat Res Environm, 4041 Powder Mill Rd,Suite 302, Calverton, MD 20705 USA. AB In September 1994, a Workshop on Climate Change Implications and Adaptation Strategies for the Indo-Pacific Island Nations was held in Honolulu, Hawaii. The workshop was convened under the auspices of the US Country Studies Program and was designed to provide a forum for representatives of several Pacific Rim nations to discuss the implications of climate change for economic development and resource management in their jurisdictions. As a background to the workshop's deliberations, this article provides a survey of scientific understanding related to climate variability and change. In addition, the article identifies specific opportunities to use emerging information on climate variability and climate change to support environmentally sustainable economic development in the Pacific region. The article is based on the Opening Keynote Address presented to the workshop by Eileen Shea. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *EARTH SYST SCI CO, 1988, EARTH SYST SCI CLOS *NAT RES COUNC, 1995, REV US GLOB CHANG RE *OFF TECHN ASS, 1993, PREP UNC CLIM, V1 *OFF TECHN ASS, 1993, PREP UNC CLIM, V2 *WORLD MET ORG UN, 1991, CLIM CHANG IPCC RESP BIJLSMA L, 1995, IMPACTS ADAPTATION M HALL JM, 1994, COMMUNICATION HILTON AC, PACIFIC ENSO UPDATE HOUGHTON JT, 1990, CLIMATE CHANGE IPCC HOUGHTON JT, 1995, SCI CLIMATE CHANGE SERAGELDIN I, 1994, MAKING DEV SUSTAINAB TEGART WJ, 1990, CLIMATE CHANGE IPCC WATSON RT, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, V1, P1 NR 13 TC 0 J9 OCEAN COAST MANAGE BP 109 EP 121 PY 1997 VL 37 IS 1 GA ZM705 UT ISI:000073567600009 ER PT J AU Patt, A Klein, RJT de la Vega-Leinert, A TI Taking the uncertainty in climate-change vulnerability assessment seriously SO COMPTES RENDUS GEOSCIENCE LA English DT Article C1 Boston Univ, Dept Geog, Boston, MA 02215 USA. Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res, D-14412 Potsdam, Germany. RP Patt, A, Boston Univ, Dept Geog, 675 Commonwealth Ave, Boston, MA 02215 USA. AB Climate-change vulnerability assessment has become a frequently employed tool, with the purpose of informing policy-makers attempting to adapt to global change conditions. However, we suggest that there are three reasons to suspect that vulnerability assessment often promises more certainty, and more useful results, than it can deliver. First, the complexity of the system it purports to describe is greater than that described by other types of assessment. Second, it is difficult, if not impossible, to obtain data to test proposed interactions between different vulnerability drivers. Third, the time scale of analysis is too long to be able to make robust projections about future adaptive capacity. We analyze the results from a stakeholder workshop in a European vulnerability assessment, and find evidence to support these arguments. To cite this article: A. Patt et al., C. R. Geoscience 337 (2005). (c) 2004 Academie des sciences. Published by Elsevier SAS. All rights reserved. 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Indiana State Univ, Terre Haute, IN 47809 USA. RP Foster, JB, Univ Oregon, Eugene, OR 97403 USA. AB This introduction to "Socialism and the Unity of Physical Forces" reassesses Sergei Podolinsky's place in the history of ecological economics together with Marx and Engels's reaction to Podolinsky's work. The authors show that contrary to conventional wisdom, Podolinsky did not establish a plausible thermodynamic basis for the labor theory of value that could have been adopted by Marx and Engels. Moreover, Marx and Engels did not neglect nor abruptly reject Podolinsky's work as is commonly supposed but took it seriously enough to scrutinize it deeply in the spirit of critique. Although verifying Podolinsky's rightful place as a forerunner of ecological energetics, the authors' analysis highlights the severe limitations imposed by his energy reductionism and closed-system thinking as compared to Marx and Engels's metabolic and open-system approach. CR BAKSI P, 2001, NATURE SOC THOUGHT, V14, P377 BRAMWELL A, 1989, ECOLOGY 20 CENTURY BURKETT P, 1999, MARX NATURE RED GREE BURKETT P, 2003, ORGAN ENVIRON, V16, P137 CHALLEY JF, 1971, DICT SCI BIOGRAPHY, V3, P79 CHICHERIN BN, 1998, LIBERTY EQUALITY MAR CLEVELAND CJ, 1999, BIOECONOMICS SUSTAIN, P125 COMMONER B, 1971, CLOSING CIRCLE DELEAGE JP, 1994, IS CAPITALISM SUSTAI, P37 ENGELS F, 1978, SOCIALISM UTOPIAN SC FOSTER JB, 2000, MARXS ECOLOGY MAT NA GEORGE S, 1998, PRIVATIZING NATURE, R9 GEORGESCUROEGEN N, 1971, ENTROPY LAW EC PROCE GUHA R, 1997, VARIETIES ENV HAYWARD T, 1994, ECOLOGICAL THOUGHT HERMANN DL, 1875, ELEMENTS HUMAN PHYSL HIMKA JP, 1993, ENCY UKRAINE, V4, P62 HOLUBNYCHY V, 1971, UKRAINE CONCISE ENCY, P684 HOLUBNYCHY V, 1993, ENCY UKRAINE, V4, P115 HORNBORG A, 1998, ECOL ECON, V25, P127 HUME G, 1914, 35 YEARS RUSSIA KAUFMAN R, 1987, ECOLOGICAL MODELING, V37, P91 KOROPECKYJ IS, 1984, SELECTED CONTRIBUTIO KOROPECKYJ IS, 1990, DEV SHADOW STUDIES U KUHN TS, 1977, ESSENTIAL TENSION MARTINEZALIER J, 1982, J PEASANT STUD, V9, P207 MARTINEZALIER J, 1987, ECOLOGICAL EC MARTINEZALIER J, 1997, ECOL ECON, V22, P225 MARTINEZALIER J, 2003, WORLD SYST THEOR ENV MARX K, 1966, CRITIQUE GOTHA PROGR MARX K, 1975, SELECTED CORRESPONDE MARX K, 1975, TEXTS METHODS MARX K, 1976, CAPITAL, V1 MARX K, 1987, COLLECTED WORKS, V25 MARX K, 1992, COLLECTED WORKS, V46 MIROWSKI P, 1988, J ECON ISSUES, V22, P811 OCONNOR J, 1998, NATURAL CAUSES PEPPER D, 1996, MODERN ENV PIMENTAL D, 1996, FOOD ENERGY SOC PODOLINKSY S, 1883, NEUE ZEIT, V1, P449 PODOLINSKY S, 1980, REV SOCIALISTE, V8, P353 PODOLINSKY S, 1983, NEUE ZEIT, V1, P424 PODOLINSKY S, 2004, ORGAN ENVIRON, V17, P61 PRIGOGINE I, 1984, ORDER OUT CHAOS RAPPAPORT RA, 1967, PIGS ANCESTORS RITUA, V1, P1 RUDNYTSKY IL, 1952, ANN UKRAINIAN ACAD A, V1, P1 SAADFILHO A, 2002, VALUE MARX SALLEH A, 1997, ECOFEMINISM POLITICS SAPIR B, 1974, LAVROV GODY EMIGRATS SCHRODINGER E, 1944, WHAT IS LIFE SERBYN R, 1982, J UKRAINIAN STUDIES, V7, P3 SIEBER NI, 2001, RES POLIT E, V19, P17 SMITH C, 1998, SCI ENERGY CULTURAL SMITH DN, 2001, RES POLIT E, V19, P47 STOKES KM, 1992, MAN BIOSPHERE WHITE JD, 1996, K MARX INTELLECTUAL WHITE JD, 2001, RES POLIT E, V19, P3 NR 57 TC 0 J9 ORGAN ENVIRON BP 32 EP 60 PY 2004 PD MAR VL 17 IS 1 GA 775FQ UT ISI:000189030400006 ER PT J AU Mendelsohn, R Dinar, A TI Climate change, agriculture, and developing countries: Does adaptation matter? SO WORLD BANK RESEARCH OBSERVER LA English DT Article C1 Yale Univ, Sch Forestry & Environm Studies, New Haven, CT 06520 USA. World Bank, Rural Dev Dept, Washington, DC 20433 USA. RP Mendelsohn, R, Yale Univ, Sch Forestry & Environm Studies, New Haven, CT 06520 USA. AB Because most developing countries depend heavily on agriculture, the effects of global warming on productive croplands are likely to threaten both the welfare of the population and the economic development of the countries. Tropical regions in the developing world are particularly vulnerable to potential damage from environmental changes because the poor soils that cover large areas of these regions already have made much of the land unusable for agriculture. Although agronomic simulation models predict that higher temperatures will reduce grain yields as the cool wheat-growing areas get warmer they have not examined the possibility that farmers will adapt by making production decisions that are in their own best interests. A recent set of models examines cross-sectional evidence from India and Brazil and finds that even though the agricultural sector is sensitive to climate, individual farmers no take local climates into account, and their ability to do so will help mitigate the impacts of global warming. 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RP SMIT, B, UNIV GUELPH,DEPT GEOG,GUELPH N1G 2W1,ONTARIO,CANADA. CR 1978, CLIMATE CHANGE YEAR 1980, CROP YIELDS CLIMATE 1982, CARBON DIOXIDE CLIMA 1983, WORLD GRAIN EC CLIMA 1985, LEG22 U GUELPH U SCH 1986, LEG26 U GUELPH U SCH BAIER W, 1979, AGR METEOROL, V20, P137 BENCI JF, 1975, CLIMATIC IMPACTS ASS BERGTHORSSON P, 1988, IMPACT CLIMATIC VARI, V1, P381 BISWAS AK, 1980, IIASA P SER, V10, P75 BLASING TJ, 1984, PROGR BIOMETEOROL, V3, P311 BOOTSMA A, 1984, POSSIBLE EFFECTS CLI BUTZER KW, 1980, PROF GEOGR, V32, P269 DECKER WL, 1986, DOENBB0077 U MISS DE EMANUEL WR, 1985, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V7, P29 FORSTER BA, 1984, CANADIAN J AGR EC, V32, P498 HARE FK, 1983, SYLLOGEOUS, V49, P15 HARRISON P, 1984, AMBIO, V13, P161 HEAGLE AS, 1983, CROP SCI, V23, P1184 HECK WW, 1983, ENVIRON SCI TECHNOL, V17, A573 IRVING PM, 1983, J ENVIRON QUAL, V12, P442 KETTUNEN L, 1988, IMPACT CLIMATIC VARI, V1, P511 KIMBALL BA, 1983, AGRON J, V75, P779 KIMBALL BA, 1987, AGRONOMY ABSTRACTS, P14 KRAMER PJ, 1981, BIOSCIENCE, V31, P29 LAMB JJ, 1986, TASK FORCE M POLICY LEMON ER, 1983, CO2 PLANTS RESPONSE LIVERMAN DM, 1986, J CLIMATOL, V6, P355 LOUGH JM, 1983, J CLIM APPL METEOROL, V22, P1673 LUDLOW L, 1987, J ENVIRON MANAGE, V25, P27 NEWMAN JE, 1980, BIOMETEOROLOGY, V7, P128 ORAM PA, 1985, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V7, P129 PALUTIKOV JP, 1984, PROGR BIOMETEOROL, V3, P320 PARRY ML, 1985, ENVIRONMENT, V27, P4 PARRY ML, 1978, CLIMATIC CHANGE AGR PARRY ML, 1988, IMPACT CLIMATIC VARI, V1, P11 PITOVRANOV SE, 1988, IMPACT CLIMATIC VARI, V1, P615 PITTOCK AB, 1986, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V8, P243 POSTEL S, 1986, 71 WORLDW I PAP PRIOR SA, 1987, AGRONOMY ABSTRACTS, P16 RAMIREZ J, 1975, CLIMATIC IMPACTS ASS ROGERS HH, 1983, J ENVIRON QUAL, V12, P569 ROSENBERG NJ, 1981, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V3, P265 ROSENBERG NJ, 1982, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V4, P239 ROSENZWEIG C, 1985, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V7, P367 SANTER B, 1984, SOCIOECONOMIC IMPACT SANTER B, 1985, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V7, P71 SCHLESINGER ME, 1985, POTENTIAL CLIMATIC E, P81 SIONIT N, 1987, CAN J PLANT SCI, V67, P629 STEWART TR, 1985, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V7, P159 TERJUNG WH, 1984, INT J BIOMETEOROL, V28, P261 TERJUNG WH, 1984, INT J BIOMETEOROL, V28, P279 WAGGONER PE, 1983, CHANGING CLIMATE REP, P383 WATERSTONE M, 1985, GEOFORUM, V16, P301 WILLIAMS GDV, 1985, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V7, P55 WILLIAMS GDV, 1988, IMPACT CLIMATIC VARI, V1, P219 YOSHINO MM, 1988, IMPACT CLIMATIC VARI, V1, P723 NR 57 TC 26 J9 J ENVIRON QUAL BP 519 EP 527 PY 1988 PD OCT-DEC VL 17 IS 4 GA Q6858 UT ISI:A1988Q685800001 ER PT J AU Magistro, J Lo, MD TI Historical and human dimensions of climate variability and water resource constraint in the Senegal River Valley SO CLIMATE RESEARCH LA English DT Article C1 Int Dev Enterprises, Lakewood, CO 80215 USA. Ctr Suivi Ecol, Dakar, Senegal. RP Magistro, J, Int Dev Enterprises, 10403 W Colfax Ave,Suite 500, Lakewood, CO 80215 USA. AB This paper provides a case study from the northern Senegal wetlands documenting trends in inter-annual and seasonal climate variability during the past century as well as human vulnerability and adaptation to anomalous climate events. A secular decline in precipitation during the past 3 decades has resulted in the construction of 2 dams on the Senegal River in the 1980s and an interstate river basin development strategy to develop hydroelectricity, irrigation farming, and a navigable waterway. Current agro-ecological production systems dependent on a seasonal riparian flood cycle could be curtailed in trying to meet these development objectives, Two hydrological time flow series illustrating the importance of inter-annual and seasonal climate variability for the region are used to weigh the costs and benefits of competing water use scenarios for end users. 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AB Global environmental change is one of the most significant research and policy issues facing humankind. Although vast financial and human resources are being allocated to climate change research, there are numerous knowledge gaps between understanding climate variations and human responses, particularly in the area of farm adaptation. In this paper, we argue that four issues need to be addressed, in order to narrow these gaps. First, greater attention needs to be directed towards impact assessment. Second, future researchers should consider critical methodologies and theories clearly articulated in cognate disciplines. Third, we need to have an improved understanding of how present agriculture adapts to both climatic and societal forces. Lastly, we need to have an improved understanding of the decision-making process. We address these issues by drawing upon three areas of research: (i) the climate change and impact assessment literature; (ii) the natural hazards literature; and (iii) the agricultural restructuring literature, drawn primarily from the disciplines of rural geography and rural sociology. From a review of this literature, we argue that each area provides an incomplete assessment of the relationship between climate change and agriculture in developed countries. Consequently, we conclude that an approach which situates farm-level decision making in relation to both broad structural (including biophysical) and internal forces, provides for a greater understanding of the nexus between climate change and farm adaptation. 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1986, SCOPE, V28, P393 WATTS MJ, 1983, INTERPRETATIONS CALA, P231 WATTS MJ, 1983, SILENT VIOLENCE FOOD WHATMORE S, 1987, SOCIOL RURALIS, V27, P21 WHEATON EE, 1994, E29007E93 SASK RES C WHITE GF, 1945, 29 U CHIC DEP GEOGR WHITE GF, 1964, 93 U CHIC DEP GEOGR WILLIAMS GDV, 1988, IMPACT CLIMATIC VARI, V1, P219 WOO MK, 1992, CAN GEOGR, V36, P66 NR 130 TC 14 J9 J RURAL STUD BP 335 EP 350 PY 1995 PD JUL VL 11 IS 3 GA TG687 UT ISI:A1995TG68700009 ER PT J AU Hulme, M Barrow, EM Arnell, NW Harrison, PA Johns, TC Downing, TE TI Relative impacts of human-induced climate change and natural climate variability SO NATURE LA English DT Article C1 Univ E Anglia, Sch Environm Sci, Climat Res Unit, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. Univ Southampton, Dept Geog, Southampton SO17 1BJ, Hants, England. Univ Oxford, Environm Change Unit, Oxford OX1 3TB, England. UK Meteorol Off, Bracknell RG12 2SY, Berks, England. RP Hulme, M, Univ E Anglia, Sch Environm Sci, Climat Res Unit, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. AB Assessments of the regional impacts of human-induced climate change on a wide range of social and environmental systems are fundamental for determining the appropriate policy responses to climate change(1-3). Yet regional-scale impact assessments are fraught with difficulties, such as the uncertainties of regional climate-change prediction(4), the specification of appropriate environmental-response models(5), and the interpretation of impact results in the context of future socio-economic and technological change(6). The effects of such confounding factors on estimates of climate-change impacts have only been poorly explored(3-7). Here we use results from recent global climate simulations(8) and two environmental response models(9,10) to consider systematically the effects of natural climate variability (30-year timescales) and future climate-change uncertainties on river runoff and agricultural potential in Europe. We find that, for some regions, the impacts of human-induced climate change by 2050 will be undetectable relative to those due to natural multi-decadal climate variability. If misleading assessments of-and inappropriate adaptation strategies to-climate-change impacts are to be avoided, future studies should consider the impacts of natural multidecadal climate variability alongside those of human-induced climate change. CR ARNELL NW, 1999, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V9, P5 BATTS GR, 1998, J AGR SCI 1, V130, P17 CARTER TR, 1994, IPCC TECHNICAL GUIDE CURE JD, 1986, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V38, P127 DOWLATABADI H, 1997, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V35, P137 FANKHAUSER S, 1995, VALUING CLIMATE CHAN GODWIN D, 1990, USERS GUIDE CERES WH HARRISON PA, 1995, CLIMATE CHANGE AGR E, P370 HARRISON PA, 1996, ASPECTS APPL BIOL, V45, P41 HARRISON PA, 1996, CLIMATE RES, V7, P225 HOPE C, 1993, ENERG POLICY, V21, P327 HULME M, 1995, INT J CLIMATOL, V15, P1333 KIMBALL BA, 1995, GLOB CHANGE BIOL, V1, P429 KITTEL TGF, 1998, CLIM DYNAM, V14, P1 LEGGETT J, 1992, CLIMATE CHANGE 1992, P75 MITCHELL JFB, IN PRESS CLIM CHANGE MITCHELL JFB, 1997, J CLIMATE, V10, P245 NORDHAUS WD, 1993, AM ECON REV, V83, P313 PARRY ML, 1996, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V6, P1 PARRY ML, 1998, CLIMATE IMPACT ADAPT PORTER JR, 1993, EUR J AGRON, V2, P69 RICHIE J, 1985, ARS WHEAT YIELD PROJ, P159 SHUGART HH, 1996, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V34, P131 TETT SFB, 1997, CLIM DYNAM, V13, P303 TOL RSJ, 1995, ENVIRON RESOUR ECON, V5, P353 WATSON RT, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, V1, P1 WEIR AH, 1984, J AGR SCI, V102, P371 WIGLEY TML, 1996, NATURE, V379, P240 WILBY RL, 1997, PROG PHYS GEOG, V21, P530 WTSON RT, 1998, REGIONAL IMPACTS CLI NR 30 TC 45 J9 NATURE BP 688 EP 691 PY 1999 PD FEB 25 VL 397 IS 6721 GA 171AP UT ISI:000078840100048 ER PT J AU Madelene, OA Chen, DL TI Land-use change: Impacts of climate variations and policies among small-scale farmers in the Loess Plateau, China SO LAND USE POLICY LA English DT Article C1 Univ Gothenburg, Dept Earth Sci, S-40530 Gothenburg, Sweden. Univ Gothenburg, Ctr Earth Sci, Reg Climate Grp, S-40530 Gothenburg, Sweden. China Meteorol Adm, Natl Climate Ctr, Lab Climate Studies, Beijing, Peoples R China. RP Madelene, OA, Univ Gothenburg, Dept Earth Sci, POB 460, S-40530 Gothenburg, Sweden. AB Changes are taking place in many developing countries causing land-use change. In China there has been enormous economic growth since 1978 followed by impacts on the environmental, social and economical conduct of the society. One of the counter actions taken by the Government to halt the environmental degradation in the Loess Plateau has been the introduction of the Slope Land Conversion Program/Crop Conversion Program in 1999, stopping agricultural activity in slope areas, mainly used by small-scale farmers. At the same time climate variations have also been evident in the area, with decreases in rainfall and increases in temperature since 1970. The aim here is to examine what vegetation changes are seen at the regional scale in the area from 2000 to 2002 and how they correlate to local land-use changes. How the land-use changes are correlated with climate variations and/or policies and reforms is then investigated. The data included in this integrated assessment includes remote sensing information for the end of August from MODIS and ASTER images, climate and statistical data, as well as farmers' participatory data. The results show that the large-scale vegetation cover has increased, which correlates well with the dramatic local land-use change caused by the policy implementation. The land-use change shows some correlation with the climate variables (both lagged and simultaneous) but climatic factors alone do not fully explain the regional increase in vegetation. Hence the direct force behind the extreme land-use change is most likely associated with policy and economics, although climatic has some impact on regional scale vegetation pattern. The result from this study is contributing to the increasing growth of literature in climate change research on the complex issue of multiple stressors, i.e. processes that many areas in the developing world are exposed to. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 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RP Cohen, SJ, Environm Canada, Vancouver, BC, Canada. AB Scenarios of global climate change were examined to see what impacts they might have on transboundary water management in the Columbia River basin. Scenario changes in natural streamflow were estimated using a basin hydrology model. These scenarios tended to show earlier seasonal peaks, with possible reductions in total annual flow and lower minimum flows. Impacts and adaptation responses to the natural streamflow scenarios were determined through two exercises: (a) estimations of system reliability using a reservoir model with performance measures and (b) interviews with water managers and other stakeholders in the Canadian portion of the basin. Results from the two exercises were similar, suggesting a tendency towards reduced reliability to meet objectives for power production, fisheries, and agriculture. Reliability to meet flood control objectives would be relatively unchanged in some scenarios but reduced in others. This exercise suggests that despite the high level of development and management in the Columbia, vulnerabilities would still exist, and impacts could still occur in scenarios of natural streamflow changes caused by global climate change. Many of these would be indirect, reflecting the complex relationship between the region and its climate. 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AB The objective of integrated assessment of climate change is to put available knowledge together in order to evaluate what has been learned, policy implications, and research needs. This paper summarizes insights gained from five years of integrated assessment activity at Carnegie Mellon. After an introduction, in Section 2 we ask: who are the climate decision makers? We conclude that they are a diffuse and often divergent group spread all over the world whose decisions are primarily driven by local non-climate considerations. Insights are illustrated with results from the ICAM-2 model. In Section 3 we ask: what is the climate problem? In addition to the conventional answer, we note that in a democracy the problem is whatever voters and their elected representatives think it is. Results from studies of public understanding are reported. Several other specific issues that define the problem, including the treatment of aerosols and alternative indices for comparing greenhouse gases, are discussed. In Section 4 we discuss studies of climate impacts, focusing on coastal zones, the terrestrial biosphere and human health. Particular attention is placed on the roles of adaptation, value change, and technological innovation. In Section 5 selected policy issues are discussed. We conclude by noting that equity has received too little attention in past work. We argue that many conventional tools for policy analysis are not adequate to deal with climate problems. Values that change, and mixed levels of uncertainty, pose particularly important challenges for the future. 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RP Gunderson, LH, Emory Univ, Dept Environm Studies, Atlanta, GA 30322 USA. AB In 1973, C. S. Holling introduced the word resilience into the ecological literature as a way of helping to understand the non-linear dynamics observed in ecosystems. Ecological resilience was defined as the amount of disturbance that an ecosystem could withstand without changing self-organized processes and structures (defined as alternative stable states). Other authors consider resilience as a return time to a stable state following a perturbation. A new term, adaptive capacity, is introduced to describe the processes that modify ecological resilience. Two definitions recognize the presence of multiple stable states (or stability domains), and hence resilience is the property that mediates transition among these states. Transitions among stable states have been described for many ecosystems, including semi-arid rangelands, lakes, coral reefs, and forests. In these systems, ecological resilience is maintained by keystone structuring processes across a number of scales, sources of renewal and reformation, and functional biodiversity. In practice, maintaining a capacity for renewal in a dynamic environment provides an ecological buffer that protects the system from the failure of management actions that are taken based upon incomplete understanding, and it allows managers to affordably learn and change. CR BERKES F, 1995, PROPERTY RIGHTS SOCI, P35 BERKES F, 1998, LINKING SOCIAL ECOLO, V1, P1 CARPENTER SR, 1993, TROPHIC CASCADE LAKE CARPENTER SR, 1997, CONSERVATION ECOLOGY, V1 CARPENTER SR, 1999, ECOL APPL, V9, P751 CONNELL JH, 1983, AM NAT, V121, P789 CONWAY GR, 1993, EC ECOLOGY NEW FRONT, P57 DAVIS SM, 1989, FRESH WATER WETLANDS DEANGELIS DL, 1980, ECOLOGY, V61, P764 DUBLIN HT, 1990, J ANIM ECOL, V59, P1147 ESTES JA, 1995, ECOL MONOGR, V65, P75 FIERING MB, 1982, WATER RESOUR RES, V18, P33 FOLKE C, 1995, PROPERTY RIGHTS ENV, P50 FOLKE C, 1996, ECOL APPL, V6, P1018 GRAIGHEAD FC, 1971, TREES S FLORIDA, V1 GRIMM V, 1997, OECOLOGIA, V109, P323 GUNDERSON LH, 1994, EVERGLADES ECOSYSTEM, P291 GUNDERSON LH, 1994, EVERGLADES ECOSYSTEM, P323 GUNDERSON LH, 1995, BARRIERS BRIDGES REN, V1, P1 GUNDERSON LH, 1996, RESILIENCE ECOSYSTEM GUNDERSON LH, 1999, BIOREGIONAL ASSESSME HANSKI I, 1995, NATURE, V377, P618 HOLLING CS, 1973, ANNUAL REV ECOLOGY S, V4, P1 HOLLING CS, 1978, ADAPTIVE ENV ASSESSM HOLLING CS, 1986, SUSTAINABLE DEV BIOS, V1, P1 HOLLING CS, 1992, ECOL MONOGR, V62, P447 HOLLING CS, 1996, CONSERV BIOL, V10, P328 HOLLING CS, 1996, ENG ECOLOGICAL CONST, P31 IVES AR, 1995, ECOL MONOGR, V65, P217 JOHNSON KN, 1999, BIOREGIONAL ASSESSME LEE KN, 1993, COMPASS GYROSCOPE LEVIN SA, 1995, ECOLOGICAL PERSPECTI LIGHT SS, 1995, BARRIERS BRIDGES REN, P103 LOVELESS CM, 1959, ECOLOGY, V40, P1 LUDWIG D, 1993, SCIENCE, V260, P17 LUDWIG D, 1996, CONSERV ECOL, V1, P1 LUDWIG J, 1997, LANDSCAPE ECOLOGY FU MAY RM, 1973, STABILITY COMPLEXITY MCCLANAHAN TR, 1995, ECOL MODEL, V80, P1 MITTELBACH GG, 1995, ECOLOGY, V76, P2347 NEUBERT MG, 1997, ECOLOGY, V78, P653 ONEILL RV, 1986, MONOGR POP BIOL, V23 OSTROM E, 1995, PROPERTY RIGHTS ENV, P245 PETERSON GD, 1998, ECOSYSTEMS, V1, P6 PIMM SL, 1991, BALANCE NATURE SCHEFFER M, 1993, TRENDS ECOL EVOL, V8, P275 SCHEFFER M, 1998, ECOLOGY SHALLOW LAKE SINCLAIR ARE, 1990, OIKOS, V59, P382 SINCLAIR ARE, 1995, SERENGETI, V2 STEWARD KK, 1975, ECOLOGY, V56, P162 TILMAN D, 1994, NATURE, V367, P363 TILMAN D, 1996, NATURE, V379, P718 WADE DD, 1980, FIRE S FLORIDA ECOSY WAIDE JB, 1976, SYSTEMS ANAL SIMULAT, P329 WALKER BH, 1995, CONSERV BIOL, V9, P747 WALKER BH, 1999, ECOSYSTEMS, V2, P95 WALKER BH, 1981, FOREST SUCCESSION CO, P431 WALKER BH, 1981, J ECOL, V69, P473 WALKER BH, 1992, CONSERV BIOL, V6, P18 WALKER BH, 1997, AUST J ECOL, V22, P125 WEAVER JL, 1996, CONSERV BIOL, V10, P964 YOUNG M, 1995, PROPERTY RIGHTS ENV, P210 NR 62 TC 24 J9 ANNU REV ECOL SYST BP 425 EP 439 PY 2000 VL 31 GA 385NX UT ISI:000166011500018 ER PT J AU Lorenzoni, I Jordan, A ORiordan, T Turner, RK Hulme, M TI A co-evolutionary approach to climate change impact assessment: Part II. A scenario-based case study in East Anglia (UK) SO GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS LA English DT Article C1 Univ E Anglia, Ctr Social & Econ Res Global Environm, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. Univ Coll London, London WC1E 6BT, England. Univ E Anglia, Sch Environm Sci, Climat Res Unit, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. RP Lorenzoni, I, Univ E Anglia, Ctr Social & Econ Res Global Environm, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. AB Policy makers are beginning to intensify their search for policies that assist society to adapt to the unfolding impacts of climate change at the local level. This paper forms the second part of a two part examination of the potential for using scenarios in adaptation and vulnerability assessment. Part I explained how climate change and socio-economic scenarios can be integrated to better understand the complex inter-relationships between a changing climate and a dynamically evolving social system. This second part describes how a broadly representative sample of public, private and voluntary organisations in the East Anglian region of the UK responded to the scenarios, and identifies future research priorities. The main findings are that integrated socio-economic and climate scenarios applied 'bottom up' to locally important stakeholders: (1) provide a sophisticated and dynamic mechanism to explore the potential feedbacks between natural and human systems; (2) offer a means to understand the vulnerability and adaptive capacity of different exposure units; (3) promote social learning by encouraging participants to assess the adequacy of their existing climate strategies for longer than their normal planning periods. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *CLIM CHANG IMP RE, 1996, REV POT EFF CLIM CHA *OST, 1999, DTIPUB40151K399NPURN *SCEALA, 1998, STAND C E ANGL LOC A *SCEALA, 1999, LOND S E REG PLANN C ADGER WN, 1999, WORLD DEV, V27, P247 KELLY PM, 1999, 9907 CSERGE U E ANGL LORENZONI I, IN PRESS GLOBAL ENV PARRY ML, 1998, CLIMATE IMPACT ADAPT PULLINGER J, 1998, REGIONJAL TRENDS 33 SCHNEIDER SH, 1997, ENVIRON MODEL ASSESS, V2, P229 TURNER RK, 1995, ENVIRON PLANN A, V27, P1777 NR 11 TC 5 J9 GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANGE BP 145 EP 155 PY 2000 PD JUL VL 10 IS 2 GA 353TW UT ISI:000089292400006 ER PT J AU Sheppard, SRJ TI Landscape visualisation and climate change: the potential for influencing perceptions and behaviour SO ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE & POLICY LA English DT Article C1 Univ British Columbia, Collaborat Adv Landscape Planning, Dept Forest Resources & Landscape Architecture, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z4, Canada. RP Sheppard, SRJ, Univ British Columbia, Collaborat Adv Landscape Planning, Dept Forest Resources & Landscape Architecture, 2045-2424 Main Mall, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z4, Canada. AB The urgent need to mitigate and adapt to climate change is becoming more widely understood in scientific and policy circles, but public awareness lags behind. The potential of visual communication to accelerate social learning and motivate implementation of the substantial policy, technological, and life-style changes needed, has begun to be recognised. In particular, realistic landscape visualisations may offer special advantages in rapidly advancing peoples' awareness of climate change and possibly affecting behaviour and policy, by bringing certain possible consequences of climate change home to people in a compelling manner. However, few such applications are yet in use, the theoretical basis for the effectiveness of visualisations in this role has not been clearly established, and there are ethical concerns elicited by adopting a persuasive approach which deliberately engages the emotions with visual imagery. These questions and policy implications are discussed in the context of a theoretical framework on the effects of landscape visualisation on a spectrum of responses to climate change information, drawing in part on evidence from other applications of landscape visualisation. The author concludes that the persuasive use of visualisations, together with other approaches, may be effective, is justified, and could be vital in helping communicate climate change effectively, given ethical standards based on disclosure, drama, and defensibility. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 *UKCIP, 2002, CLIM CHANG SCEN UK *UKCIP, 2005, SOC SCEN CLIM CHANG ADGER WN, 2003, ECON GEOGR, V79, P387 ALKODMANY K, 2000, LANDSC RES, V25, P5 APPLETON K, 2002, COMPUT ENV URBAN SYS, V26, P201 APPLETON K, 2003, LANDSCAPE URBAN PLAN, V65, P117 APPLEYARD D, 1977, HUMAN BEHAV ENV, V1, P43 BENGTSSON P, 1997, ERGONOMICS, V40, P334 BERRY PM, 2002, GLOBAL ECOL BIOGEOGR, V11, P453 BERRY PM, 2005, COMMUNICATION BISHOP ID, 2001, LANDSCAPE URBAN PLAN, V54, P115 BISHOP ID, 2003, LANDSCAPE URBAN PLAN, V65, P261 BOARDMAN B, 2003, 4CE ENV CHANG I BOSSELMANN P, 1987, METHODS ENV BEHAV RE, CH5 BOSSELMANN P, 1998, REPRESENTATION PLACE CAMPBELL DC, 2004, UNPUB DIG WORKSH EXP COHEN SJ, 1997, ENVIRON MODEL ASSESS, V2, P281 COHEN SJ, 2004, EXPANDING DIALOGUE C COX DJ, 1990, ACAD COMPUT, V46, P20 DANAHY JW, 2001, LANDSCAPE URBAN PLAN, V54, P125 DANIEL TC, 2001, J ENVIRON PSYCHOL, V21, P61 DOCKERTY T, 2005, COMPUT ENV URBAN SYS, V29, P297 DYKES JA, 2000, COMPUTERS ENV URBAN, V24, P127 ERVIN SM, 2001, LANDSCAPE MODELING D FAWCETT T, 2002, CARBON UK IND SUSTAI FURNESS TA, 1998, P WORKSH SEATTL WASH HEDGER MM, 2003, CLIMATE CHANGE ASSES KAPLAN R, 1988, ENV AESTHETICS THEOR, P379 KEENEY RL, 2001, RISK ANAL, V21, P989 KOLLMUSS A, 2002, ENV ED RES, V8, P239 LANGE E, 2001, LANDSCAPE URBAN PLAN, V54, P163 LEWIS JL, IN PRESS LANDSC URBA LEWIS JL, 2000, THESIS UBC LORENZONI I, 2001, 0105 CSERGE ECM LOWE T, 2005, 72 U E ANGL LUYMES D, 2001, IUFRO RES SERIES, P191 LYNAS M, 2004, HIGH TIDE NEWS WARMI MACEACHREN AM, 1990, CARTOGRAPHICA, V27, P64 MACHEACHREN AM, 2001, PROG HUM GEOGR, V25, P431 MAITENY P, 2002, ENV ED RES, V8, P299 MCKENZIEMOHR D, 1999, FOSTERING SUSTAINABL MCQUILLAN AG, 1998, J FOREST, V96, P15 MEITNER M, 1997, P DAT VIS 97 ST LOUI MICHAELIS L, 2003, CLIM POLICY, S135 MONBIOT G, 2004, GUARDIAN 0427 NAKICENOVIC N, 2000, EMISSIONS SCENARIOS NICHOLSONCOLE SA, 2005, COMPUT ENV URBAN SYS, V29, P255 ORFORD S, 1999, SOC SCI COMPUT REV, V17, P289 ORLAND B, 1992, LANDSCAPE URBAN PLAN, V21, P257 ORLAND B, 2001, FORESTS LANDSCAPES L, P205 ORLAND B, 2001, LANDSCAPE URBAN PLAN, V54, P139 PEARCE DW, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995 PORTER T, 1979, ARCHITECTS VISUALIZE RIBE RG, 2005, LANDSCAPE URBAN PLAN, V73, P277 SALTER JD, 2005, THESIS U BRIT COLUMB SCHROTH O, 2005, OUR SHAR LANDSC C AS SHEPPARD SRJ, 1989, VISUAL SIMULATION US SHEPPARD SRJ, 2001, LANDSCAPE URBAN PLAN, V54, P183 SHEPPARD SRJ, 2001, P LANDTECH ASLA CSLA SHEPPARD SRJ, 2004, ENCY FOREST SCI, P486 SHEPPARD SRJ, 2004, MAKING UNSUSTAINABIL SHEPPARD SRJ, 2005, FOREST ECOL MANAG, V207, P171 SHEPPARD SRJ, 2005, VISUALIZATION LANDSC, P79 SLOVIC P, 2002, HEURISTICS BIASES PS, P397 STEINITZ C, 2003, ALTERNATIVES FUTURES STERN PC, 2000, J SOC ISSUES, V56, P407 TICKELL C, 2002, SCIENCE, V297, P737 TRESS B, 2002, URBAN PLAN, V982, P1 TUFTE ER, 1990, ENVISIONING INFORM WEBSTER M, 2003, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V61, P1 WINN W, 1997, R9715 HITL U WASH ZAJONC RB, 1984, AM PSYCHOL, V39, P117 ZUBE EH, 1982, LANDSCAPE PLANN, V9, P1 NR 74 TC 0 J9 ENVIRON SCI POLICY BP 637 EP 654 PY 2005 VL 8 IS 6 GA 991MD UT ISI:000233817200010 ER PT J AU Steemers, K TI Towards a research agenda for adapting to climate change SO BUILDING RESEARCH AND INFORMATION LA English DT Article C1 Univ Cambridge, Martin Ctr Architectural & Urban Studies, Dept Architecture, Cambridge CB2 2EB, England. RP Steemers, K, Univ Cambridge, Martin Ctr Architectural & Urban Studies, Dept Architecture, Cambridge CB2 2EB, England. AB The views, publications and research related to building design and climate change are reviewed in generic terms at the outset of this paper in order to identify a number of questions and potential research avenues. In particular, the links between the roles of building design and its implications for occupant behaviour are addressed in the context of the environmental performance of buildings and climate change. The emphasis is on the integration of adaptation with energy-efficient design, both in terms of how buildings can be designed to increase their adaptive potential and of the significance of occupant adaptive opportunities. CR *DETR, 2000, CLIM CHANG UK PROGR BAKER N, 1996, ENERGY BUILDINGS, V23 BAKER N, 2000, ARCHITECTURE CITY EN BAKER N, 2000, ENERGY ENV ARCHITECT BAXTER P, 2001, HLTH EFFECTS CLIMATE, P155 BORDASS W, 2001, BUILD RES INF, V29, P144 BORDASS WT, 1995, IP395 BRE CAMPBELL CJ, 1997, COMING OIL CRISIS MU CHESSHIRE J, 2001, CABINET OFFICE PIU E DUFFY F, 1997, NEW OFFICE FERNANDEZ J, 2002, THRESHOLDS, V24 GARVIN, 1998, IMPACT CLIMATE CHANG GRAVES HM, 2000, POTENTIAL IMPLICATIO GULBERG H, 2001, SUSTAINING ARCHITECT HOUGHTON J, 2002, COMMUNICATION JAN HULME M, 2002, UKCIP02 U E ANGL TYN LAING M, 2002, COMMUNICATION LOMBERG B, 2001, SCEPTICAL ENV MEASUR LOWE R, 2001, 0104 CRISP LOWE RJ, 2001, BUILD RES INF, V29, P409 MERGHANI A, 2001, THESIS U CAMBRIDGE MULLIGAN H, 2002, PLEA 2002 C P TOUL F SMITH P, 2001, ARCHITECTURE CLIMATE SPENCE R, 1998, P 4 UK C WIND ENG BR NR 24 TC 4 J9 BUILDING RES INFORM BP 291 EP 301 PY 2003 PD MAY-AUG VL 31 IS 3-4 GA 688EE UT ISI:000183419700009 ER PT J AU Brewer, TL TI The trade regime and the climate regime: institutional evolution and adaptation SO CLIMATE POLICY LA English DT Review C1 Georgetown Univ, McDonough Sch Business, Washington, DC 20007 USA. Ctr European Policy Studies, Brussels, Belgium. RP Brewer, TL, Georgetown Univ, McDonough Sch Business, Washington, DC 20007 USA. AB This article addresses concerns that the multilateral trade regime centered in the WTO and the emerging climate regime may conflict in ways that could be damaging to either or both. The article discusses the institutional and diplomatic context of these concerns, and it identifies the kinds of issues that are in question. The analysis suggests that there are opportunities for win-win outcomes in the interactions of the two regimes, for instance in the possibility of reducing fossil fuel subsidies. However, there are also problematic areas where they intersect. A core issue-and as yet an unresolved one-is whether and how emission credit trading and other activities envisioned by the Kyoto Protocol would be subject to WTO rules. The resolution of this issue will affect many other issues as well. Additional specific issues about the interactions of particular provisions in WTO agreements and the Kyoto Protocol are analyzed in a subsequent companion article in Climate Policy. (C) 2003 Published by Elsevier Ltd. CR 2002, EU ACC ATT STRETCH W 2002, JAPAN TRIES BRIDGE G 2002, TALKS MEA RULES STRU 2002, WTO MEMBERS BLOCK EU *INT EN AG, 2001, INT EM TRAD CONC REA *OECD, 1999, FUT LIB TRAD ENV GOO *OECD, 2000, ENV GOODS SERV ASS E *USTR, 2003, US IN OFF *USTR, 2003, US SUBM WTO COMM TRA *WTO, 1995, RESULTS URUGUAY ROUN *WTO, 1998, ENV SERV BACKGR NOT *WTO, 1999, 1999 REP COMM TRAD E *WTO, 1999, TRAD ENV *WTO, 2000, TRAD ENV NEWS B *WTO, 2001, COMM TRAD ENV M 4 OC *WTO, 2001, COMM TRAD ENV *WTO, 2001, MIN DECL MIN C DOH 9 *WTO, 2001, TRAD ENV COMM DOH PR *WTO, 2002, EN TAX SUBS INC OECD *WTO, 2002, ENH SYN MUT SUPP MEA *WTO, 2002, ENV GOODS *WTO, 2002, MULT ENV AGR IMPL DO *WTO, 2002, MULT ENV AGR WTO RUL *WTO, 2003, NEG ENV GOODS EFF CA ASSUNCAO L, 2002, UNCTAD DISCUSSION PA BRACK D, 1998, TRADE POLITICS, P128 BRACK D, 2000, INT TRADE CLIMATE CH BREWER TL, 1998, J INT ECON LAW, V1, P457 BREWER TL, 2003, MULTINATIONALS ENV G BREWER TL, 2004, CLIM POLICY, V4, P1 BUCK M, 2001, INT TRADE LAW CLIMAT BUTZENGEIGER S, 2001, 154 HWWA BYRON N, 2001, GLOBALIZATION ENV RI, P27 CHAR, 2002, YALE J INT LAW, V27, P59 CHAR, 2004, PAPER CLIMATE TRADE CHARNOVITZ S, 1998, INT LAWYER, V32, P901 CHARNOVITZ S, 2000, GEO INT ENV L REV, V12, P523 COTTIER T, 2001, GLOBALIZATION ENV RI, P41 ESTY D, 1994, GREENING GATT TRADE ESTY DC, 2001, J ECON PERSPECT, V15, P113 ESTY, 2000, WTO SEATTLE, P243 FORSYTH T, 1999, INT INVESTMENT CLIMA FREDERICKSSON PG, 1999, TRADE GLOBAL POLICY, P173 GRAHAM EM, 2001, FIGHTING WRONG ENEMY GRUBB M, 1999, KYOTO PROTOCOL GUIDE KERR S, 2000, GLOBAL EMISSIONS TRA KOPP RJ, 2000, WEATHERVANE GUIDE CL KRIST WK, 2001, TRADE ENV WTO MEAS, P1 KRIST WK, 2002, GLOBAL BUSINESS DIAL, P14 MARCEAU G, 2001, RELATIONSHIP DISPUTE, P71 MICHAELOWA A, 2001, 152 HWWA MULLER B, 2002, J WORLD TRADE, V36, P57 NICHOLSON C, 2002, REPORT CEPS TASK FOR PARKER RW, 1998, DESIGNS DOMESTIC CAR PETESMANN EU, 1997, GATT WTO DISPUTE SET PETSONK A, 1999, LAW POLICY FORUM, V10, P185 ROBERTSON D, 2001, GLOBALIZATION ENV RI, P1 SAMPSON G, 1999, GLOBAL CLIMATE GOVER, CH4 SAMPSON GP, 2000, WTO AGREEMENTS DEAL SAMPSON GP, 2001, GLOBALIZATOIN ENV RI, P15 SAMPSON GP, 2001, WORLD EC GLOBAL TRAD, P19 SHAW HB, 1902, J ANAT PHYSL, V36, P1 STAVINS RN, 2000, PUBLIC POLICIES ENV, P31 VAUGHAN S, 2004, STUDY LIBERALIZATION WERKSMAN J, 1999, GLOBAL CLIMATE GOVER WERKSMAN J, 1999, REV EUROPEAN COMMUNI, V8, P251 WERKSMAN J, 2001, WILL INT INVESTMENT WISHER GM, 1999, GEORGETOWN INT ENV L, V11, P531 ZHANG ZX, 1998, J WORLD TRADE, V32, P219 NR 69 TC 0 J9 CLIM POLICY BP 329 EP 341 PY 2003 PD DEC VL 3 IS 4 GA 758RC UT ISI:000187663100002 ER PT J AU Lebel, L Anderies, JM Campbell, B Folke, C Hatfield-Dodds, S Hughes, TP Wilson, J TI Governance and the capacity to manage resilience in regional social-ecological systems SO ECOLOGY AND SOCIETY LA English DT Article C1 Arizona State Univ, Tempe, AZ 85287 USA. No Terr Univ, Darwin, NT 0909, Australia. Stockholm Univ, S-10691 Stockholm, Sweden. James Cook Univ N Queensland, Townsville, Qld 4811, Australia. Univ Maine, Orono, ME 04469 USA. RP Lebel, L, Chiang Mai Univ, Chiang Mai 50000, Thailand. AB The sustainability of regional development can be usefully explored through several different lenses. In situations in which uncertainties and change are key features of the ecological landscape and social organization, critical factors for sustainability are resilience, the capacity to cope and adapt, and the conservation of sources of innovation and renewal. However, interventions in social-ecological systems with the aim of altering resilience immediately confront issues of governance. Who decides what should be made resilient to what? For whom is resilience to be managed, and for what purpose? In this paper we draw on the insights from a diverse set of case studies from around the world in which members of the Resilience Alliance have observed or engaged with sustainability problems at regional scales. Our central question is: How do certain attributes of governance function in society to enhance the capacity to manage resilience? Three specific propositions were explored: ( 1) participation builds trust, and deliberation leads to the shared understanding needed to mobilize and self-organize; ( 2) polycentric and multilayered institutions improve the fit between knowledge, action, and social-ecological contexts in ways that allow societies to respond more adaptively at appropriate levels; and ( 3) accountable authorities that also pursue just distributions of benefits and involuntary risks enhance the adaptive capacity of vulnerable groups and society as a whole. Some support was found for parts of all three propositions. In exploring the sustainability of regional social-ecological systems, we are usually faced with a set of ecosystem goods and services that interact with a collection of users with different technologies, interests, and levels of power. In this situation in our roles as analysts, facilitators, change agents, or stakeholders, we not only need to ask: The resilience of what, to what? We must also ask: For whom? 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RP Hasegawa, T, Japanese Minist Land Infrastruct & Transport, Policy Bur, Tokyo, Japan. CR *OECD, 1997, EV EC INSTR ENV POL *OECD, 2001, AN REP DES SUST BUIL *OECD, 2003, DEV CLIM CHANG EXPL *OECD, 2003, ENV SUST BUILD CHALL *OECD, 2003, SUST US BUILD STOCK BALL M, 1989, REBUILDING CONSTRUCT BAUMOL WJ, 1988, THEORY ENV POLICY COMMON M, 1996, ENV RESOURCE EC DUPLESSIS C, 2003, BUILD RES INF, V31, P200 HERTIN J, 2003, BUILD RES INF, V31, P278 JAFFE AB, 1999, ENERGY EFFICIENT TEC LARSSON N, 2003, BUILD RES INF, V31, P231 LISO KR, 2003, BUILD RES INF, V31, P200 MILLS E, 2003, BUILD RES INF, V31, P257 SANDERS CH, 2003, BUILD RES INF, V31, P210 SHIMODA Y, 2003, BUILD RES INF, V31, P291 STEEMERS K, 2003, BUILD RES INF, V31, P291 NR 17 TC 0 J9 BUILDING RES INFORM BP 61 EP 64 PY 2004 PD JAN-FEB VL 32 IS 1 GA 780JG UT ISI:000189377100009 ER PT J AU Braga, ALF Zanobetti, A Schwartz, J TI The effect of weather on respiratory and cardiovascular deaths in 12 US cities SO ENVIRONMENTAL HEALTH PERSPECTIVES LA English DT Article C1 Harvard Univ, Sch Publ Hlth, Dept Environm Hlth, Environm Epidemiol Program, Boston, MA 02115 USA. Univ Sao Paulo, Sch Med, Dept Pathol, Lab Expt Air Pollut, Sao Paulo, Brazil. Univ Santo Amaro, Sch Med, Environm Pediat Program, Sao Paulo, Brazil. RP Schwartz, J, Harvard Univ, Sch Publ Hlth, Dept Environm Hlth, Environm Epidemiol Program, 665 Huntington Ave,Bldg 1,Room 1414, Boston, MA 02115 USA. AB We carried out time-series analyses in 12 U.S. cities to estimate both the acute effects and the tagged influence of weather on respiratory and cardiovascular disease (CVD) deaths. We fit generalized additive Poisson regressions for each city using nonparametric smooth functions to control for long time trend, season, and barometric pressure. We also controlled for day of the week. We estimated the effect and the lag structure of both temperature and humidity based on a distributed lag model. In cold cities, both high and low temperatures were associated with increased CVD deaths. In general, the effect of cold temperatures persisted for days, whereas the effect of high temperatures was restricted to the day of the death or the day before. For myocardial infarctions (MI), the effect of hot days was twice as large as the cold-day effect, whereas for all CVD deaths the hot-day effect was five times smaller than the cold-day effect. The effect of hot days included some harvesting, because we observed a deficit of deaths a few days later, which we did not observe for the cold-day effect. In hot cities, neither hot nor cold temperatures had much effect on CVD or pneumonia deaths. However, for MI and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease deaths, we observed lagged effects of hot temperatures (lags 4-6 and lags 3 and 4, respectively). We saw no clear pattern for the effect of humidity. In hierarchical models, greater variance of summer and winter temperature was associated with larger effects for hot and cold days, respectively, on respiratory deaths. CR *CDCP, 2001, HEAT REL DEATHS PHIL *COMM PROF HOSP AC, 1979, INT CLASS DIS, V1 *EARTH INC, 2000, NCDC SURF AIRW *US DEP HHS, 1993, PUBL US DAT TAP DOC AKAIKE H, 1973, 2 INT S INF THEOR, P267 ALMON S, 1965, ECONOMETRICA, V33, P178 BERKEY CS, 1995, STAT MED, V14, P395 BRAGA ALF, 2001, EPIDEMIOLOGY, V12, P662 BRAGA ALF, 2001, PEDIAT PULMONOL, V1, P106 BRUMBACK BA, 2000, J AM STAT ASSOC, V95, P16 CLEVELAND WS, 1979, J AM STAT ASSOC, V74, P829 CONCEICAO GMS, 2001, ENVIRON HEALTH PE S3, V109, P347 HASTIE T, 1990, GEN ADDITIVE MODELS HOUGHTON JT, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 JUDGE GG, 1980, THEORY PRACTICE ECON KALKSTEIN LS, 1997, ENVIRON HEALTH PERSP, V105, P84 KEATINGE WR, 1997, LANCET, V349, P1341 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 MCGEEHIN MA, 2001, ENVIRON HEALTH PE S2, V109, P185 POPE CA, 1996, AM J RESP CRIT CAR S, V154, S229 SAMET JM, 1997, 129 HLTH EFF I SAMET JM, 2000, NEW ENGL J MED, V343, P1742 SCHWARTZ J, 1994, INT BIOM SOC 17 INT, P55 SCHWARTZ J, 1999, EPIDEMIOLOGY, V10, P17 SCHWARTZ J, 2000, ENVIRON HEALTH PERSP, V108, P563 SCHWARTZ J, 2000, EPIDEMIOLOGY, V11, P320 SEMENZA JC, 1999, AM J PREV MED, V16, P269 ZANOBETTI A, 2000, ENVIRON HEALTH PERSP, V108, P1071 NR 28 TC 10 J9 ENVIRON HEALTH PERSPECT BP 859 EP 863 PY 2002 PD SEP VL 110 IS 9 GA 591RJ UT ISI:000177893800025 ER PT J AU Hulme, PE TI Adapting to climate change: is there scope for ecological management in the face of a global threat? SO JOURNAL OF APPLIED ECOLOGY LA English DT Editorial Material C1 NERC, Ctr Ecol & Hydrol, Banchory AB31 4BW, Kincardine, Scotland. RP Hulme, PE, NERC, Ctr Ecol & Hydrol, Banchory AB31 4BW, Kincardine, Scotland. AB 1. Climate change is recognized as a major threat to the survival of species and integrity of ecosystems world-wide. Although considerable research has focused on climate impacts, relatively little work to date has been conducted on the practical application of strategies for adapting to climate change. Adaptation strategies should aim to increase the flexibility in management of vulnerable ecosystems, enhance the inherent adaptability of species and ecosystem processes, and reduce trends in environmental and social pressures that increase vulnerability to climate variability. 2. Knowledge of the specific attributes of climate change likely to impact on species or habitats is central to any adaptive management strategy. Temperature is not the only climate variable likely to change as a result of anthropogenic increases in greenhouse gases. In some regions changes in precipitation, relative humidity, radiation, wind speed and/or potential evapotranspiration may be more marked than for temperature. 3. Uncertainty exists in the response of species and ecosystems to a given climate scenario. While climate will have a direct impact on the performance of many species, for others impacts will be indirect and result from changes in the spatiotemporal availability of natural resources. In addition, mutualistic and antagonistic interactions among species will mediate both the indirect and direct effects of climate change. 4. Approaches to predict species' responses to climate change have tended to address either changes in abundance with time or in spatial distribution. While correlative models may provide a good indication of climate change impacts on abundance, greater understanding is generated by models incorporating aspects of life history, intra- and interspecific competition and predation. Models are especially sensitive to the uncertainty inherent in future climate predictions, the complexity of species' interactions and the difficulties in parameterizing dispersal functions. Model outputs that have not been appropriately validated with real data should be treated with caution. 5. Synthesis and applications. While climate impacts may be severe, they are often exacerbated by current management practices, such as the construction of sea defences, flood management and fire exclusion. In many cases adaptation approaches geared to safeguard economic interests run contrary to options for biodiversity conservation. Increased environmental variability implies lower sustainable harvest rates and increased risks of population collapse. Climate change may significantly reduce habitat suitability and may threaten species with limited dispersal ability. In these cases, well-planned species translocations may prove a better option than management attempts to increase landscape connectivity. Mathematical models, long-term population studies, natural experiments and the exploitation of natural environmental gradients provide a sound basis for further understanding the consequences of climate change. 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RP STEHR, N, UNIV ALBERTA,DEPT SOCIOL,EDMONTON,AB T6G 2H42,CANADA. AB Different time scales of climate change and their differential perception in society are discussed. A historical examination of natural climate changes during the past millennium suggests that short-term changes, especially crucial changes, trigger a significant response in and by society. Shortterm changes correspond to the 'time horizon of everyday life', that is, to a time scale from days and weeks to a few years. The currently anticipated anthropogenic climate changes, however, are expected to occur on a longer time scale. They require a response by society not on the basis of primary experience but on the basis of scientifically constructed scenarios and the ways in which such information is represented in the modern media, for example. Socio-economic impact research relies on concepts that are based on the premise of perfectly informed actors for the development of optimal adaptation strategies. In contrast to such a conception, we develop the concept of a 'social construct of climate' as decisive for the public perception of scientific knowledge about climate and for public policy on climate change. The concept is illustrated using a number of examples. 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RP Pielke, RA, Natl Ctr Atmospher Res, Environm & Soc Impacts Grp, POB 3000, Boulder, CO 80307 USA. AB Since the late 1980s, scientists and policy makers have devoted considerable attention and resources to the issue of global climate change. Domestic and international policies in response focus primarily on prevention of future climate impacts on society through the mitigation of carbon dioxide emissions, Academic and political attention is also largely focused on issues of mitigation, Adaptation refers to adjustments in individual, group, and institutional behavior in order to reduce society's vulnerabilities to climate, and thus reduce its impacts. In 1996, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) wrote that adaptation offers a 'very powerful option' for responding to climate change and ought to be viewed as a 'complement' to mitigation efforts. Yet, the IPCC also wrote that 'little attention has been paid to any possible tradeoff between both types of options'. This paper discusses the limitations of mitigation responses and the need for adaptation to occupy a larger role in climate policy. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. CR 1997, ECONOMIST 0809, P24 *CAR, 1994, SUBM US UN FRAM CONV *FCCC, 1995, FCCCNC7 *FCCC, 1996, FCCC1DR1USA *FIFMTF, 1992, FLOODPLAIN MAN US AS, V2 *IPCC, 1994, CLIM CHANG 1994 RAD WATSON RT, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, V1, P1 *IRC, 1995, COAST EXP COMM PROT *NAS, 1992, POL IMPL GREENH WARM *SWISS RE, 1997, SIGMA, V3, P1 *WRI, 1996, WORLD RES 1996 97 GU BROAD WJ, 1996, NY TIMES 1112 BRUNNER RD, 1996, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V32, P121 BURTON I, 1994, DELTA, V5, P14 CARTER TR, 1994, IPCC TECHNICAL GUIDE CARTER TR, 1996, ADAPTING CLIMATE CHA CUSHMAN JH, 1997, NY TIMES WEB 1020 DARMSTADTER J, 1989, GREENHOUSE WARMING A, P35 DONIGER DD, 1988, ISSUES SCI TECHNOL, V4, P86 GLANTZ MH, 1988, SOC RESPONSES REGION GLANTZ MH, 1994, DROUGHT FOLLOWS FLOW GLANTZ MH, 1995, CLIMATE CHANGE RES E GORE A, 1992, EARTH BALANCE ECOLOG HAAS PM, 1991, GLOBAL ENV CHANGE, V2, P224 HART DM, 1993, SOC STUD SCI, V23, P643 HENDERSONSELLER.A, 1996, MITIGATION ADAPTATIO, V1, P1 JAMIESON D, 1998, IN PRESS INDIANA J G KATES RW, 1996, ENVIRONMENT, V38, P6 KAUPPI PE, 1995, SCIENCE, V270, P1454 MALAKOFF D, 1997, SCIENCE, V278, P2048 MEYERABICH KM, 1980, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V2, P373 MITCHELL A, 1996, NY TIMES 0609 MOSS RH, 1995, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V5, P3 MULLER F, 1996, ENVIRONMENT, V38, P13 NORDHAUS WD, 1992, SCIENCE, V258, P1315 NORDHAUS WD, 1994, MANAGING GLOBAL COMM PAARLBERG RL, 1996, ENVIRONMENT, V38, P16 PARRY ML, 1996, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V6, P1 PIELKE RA, 1997, RES POLICY, V26, P157 PIELKE RA, 1998, IN PRESS WEATHER FOR QUARANELLI EL, 1996, DISASTER PREVENTION, V6, P94 SMITH JB, 1996, ADAPTING CLIMATE CHA TRENBERTH KE, 1996, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V23, P57 UNGAR S, 1995, SOC NATUR RESOUR, V8, P443 VICTOR DG, 1994, ENVIRONMENT, V36, P6 WHITE RM, 1996, SCI TECHNOLOGY FAL, P33 WIGLEY TML, 1996, NATURE, V379, P240 NR 47 TC 9 J9 GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANGE BP 159 EP 170 PY 1998 PD JUL VL 8 IS 2 GA 101FX UT ISI:000074859900005 ER PT J AU Masse, WB Liston, J Carucci, J Athens, JS TI Evaluating the effects of climate change on environment, resource depletion, and culture in the Palau Islands between AD 1200 and 1600 SO QUATERNARY INTERNATIONAL LA English DT Article C1 Los Alamos Natl Lab, Ecol Grp, Los Alamos, NM 87545 USA. Int Archaeol Res Inst Inc, Honolulu, HI 96826 USA. CEVPC, 30CES, Cultural Resources Sect, Vandenberg AFB, CA 93437 USA. RP Masse, WB, Los Alamos Natl Lab, Ecol Grp, Mailstop M887, Los Alamos, NM 87545 USA. AB The Palau archipelago is a sizeable and geologically diverse set of volcanic and coralline limestone islands in equatorial western Micronesia. Recent archeological fieldwork, pollen analyses, and radiocarbon assays have expanded our understanding of more than 3000 years of culture history in Palau, providing a potentially unique window on the relationship between climate, environment, human adaptation, and culture change in the tropical western Pacific. Our focus is on the period of AD 1200-1600, particularly as relates to the transition between the Medieval Warm Period and the onset of the Little Ice Age. This period encompasses the establishment of stonework villages throughout the archipelago, and ultimately their abandonment in the limestone islands. Paleoenvironmental and archeological data, including settlement pattern analyses, provide mixed but intriguing messages regarding the role of climate in Palauan culture change. Archeological deposits in Uchularois Cave contain domestic pig, Sus scrofa, large-eyed bream, Monotaxis grandoculis, parrotfish, Scarus sp., and the humped conch, Strombus gibberulus gibbosus, that together provide evidence of environmental degradation or overharvesting and the potential effects of climate change on culture. Our data suggest that a greater emphasis on high-resolution data is necessary to properly evaluate the role of climate in Pacific island culture change. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd and INQUA. All rights reserved. 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Univ London Imperial Coll Sci Technol & Med, Innovat Studies Ctr, Business Sch & Civil & Environm Engn, London SW7 2PG, England. RP Hertin, J, Univ Sussex, Sci Policy Res Unit, Mantell Bldg, Brighton BN1 9RF, E Sussex, England. AB This paper explores how climate change could affect the UK house-building sector, focusing on the question of how companies can adapt to changing climatic conditions. It presents the results of in-depth interviews in five house-budding companies in the UK. We start from the assumption that climate change is only one driver among many, including technological innovation, shifting consumer expectations and changing regulation, that the industry faces. This approach draws on insights that are well established in the management and innovation literatures, but have often been neglected in studies of climate change. We report research about the perceptions of house builders about future impacts of climate change, potential adaptation measures that may be open to them and their ability to carry out these measures. The paper draws conclusions about the challenges that climate change presents to the UK house building industry. CR *HOUS FOR, 2002, DEM PROJ REP *HOUS FOR, 2002, HOM EXC COMM US OFFS *IPCC, 2001, 3 INT PAN CLIM CHANG *UKCIP, 2001, SOC SCEN CLIM CHANG *UKCIP, 2002, UKCIP02 TYND CTR CLI ADAMS RM, 1995, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V30, P147 ARNELL NW, 1998, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V39, P83 BARLOW J, 2002, IN PRESS BUILDING RE BRUCE JP, 1996, 2 INT PAN CLIM CHANG COURTNEY R, 2002, 0114 UMIST CRISP COM DODGSON M, 1993, ORGAN STUD, V14, P375 GANN DM, 1998, BUILD RES INF, V26, P280 GARVIN DA, 1993, HARVARD BUS REV, V71, P78 GRAVES HM, 2000, 2 FDN BUILT ENV JONES PD, 1999, REV GEOPHYS, V37, P173 KANDLIKAR M, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P529 LEONARDBARTON D, 1995, WELLSPRINGS KNOWLEDG LEVINTHAL DA, 1993, STRATEGIC MANAGE J, V14, P95 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 MENDELSOHN R, 1994, AM ECON REV, V84, P753 MENDELSOHN R, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P583 PARRY ML, 2000, ASSESSMENT POTENTIAL PIELKE RA, 1998, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V8, P159 PITTOCK AB, 2000, ENVIRON MONIT ASSESS, V61, P9 SCHNEIDER SH, 1980, ANNU REV ENERG ENV, V5, P107 SCHNEIDER SH, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P203 SMIT B, 1996, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V33, P7 SMIT B, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P223 SORRELL S, 2000, BARRIERS ENERGY EFFI STAKHIV EZ, 1996, ADAPTING CLIMATE CHA, P243 TOL RSJ, 1998, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V8, P109 YOHE GW, 1996, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V32, P387 NR 32 TC 9 J9 BUILDING RES INFORM BP 278 EP 290 PY 2003 PD MAY-AUG VL 31 IS 3-4 GA 688EE UT ISI:000183419700008 ER PT J AU Meinshausen, M Hare, B Wigley, TML Van Vuuren, D Den Elzen, MGJ Swart, RJ TI Multi-gas emissions pathways to meet climate targets SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 ETH, Swiss Fed Inst Technol, Dept Environm Sci, CH-8092 Zurich, Switzerland. PIK, Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res, D-14412 Potsdam, Germany. Natl Ctr Atmospher Res, Boulder, CO 80307 USA. MNP, Netherlands Environm Assessment Agcy, NL-3720 BA Bilthoven, Netherlands. EEA European Top Ctr Air & Climate Change, ETC, ACC, MNP, NL-3720 BA Bilthoven, Netherlands. RP Meinshausen, M, ETH, Swiss Fed Inst Technol, Dept Environm Sci, Ramistr 101, CH-8092 Zurich, Switzerland. AB So far, climate change mitigation pathways focus mostly on CO2 and a limited number of climate targets. Comprehensive studies of emission implications have been hindered by the absence of a flexible method to generate multi-gas emissions pathways, user-definable in shape and the climate target. The presented method 'Equal Quantile Walk' (EQW) is intended to fill this gap, building upon and complementing existing multi-gas emission scenarios. The EQW method generates new mitigation pathways by 'walking along equal quantile paths' of the emission distributions derived from existing multi-gas IPCC baseline and stabilization scenarios. Considered emissions include those of CO2 and all other major radiative forcing agents (greenhouse gases, ozone precursors and sulphur aerosols). Sample EQW pathways are derived for stabilization at 350 ppm to 750 ppm CO2 concentrations and compared to WRE profiles. Furthermore, the ability of the method to analyze emission implications in a probabilistic multi-gas framework is demonstrated. The probability of overshooting a 2 degrees C climate target is derived by using different sets of EQW radiative forcing peaking pathways. If the probability shall not be increased above 30%, it seems necessary to peak CO2 equivalence concentrations around 475 ppm and return to lower levels after peaking (below 400 ppm). EQW emissions pathways can be applied in studies relating to Article 2 of the UNFCCC, for the analysis of climate impacts, adaptation and emission control implications associated with certain climate targets. See www.simcap.org for EQW-software and data. 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RP Mastin, M, Univ Coll London, Environm Change Res Ctr, Dept Geog, London WC1H 0AP, England. CR COWLING SA, 2001, QUATERNARY RES, V55, P140 COX PM, 2000, NATURE, V408, P184 HUGHEN KA, 2004, SCIENCE, V304, P1955 JENNERJAHN TC, 2004, SCIENCE, V306, P2236 MASLIN M, 2001, OCEANS RAPID CLIMATE, P9 MASLIN MA, 2004, GLOBAL WARMING VERY, P162 MAYLE FE, 2004, PHILOS T ROY SOC B, V359, P499 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 RAHMSTORF S, 1995, NATURE, V378, P145 TZEDAKIS PC, 2004, SCIENCE, V306, P2231 NR 10 TC 0 J9 SCIENCE BP 2197 EP 2198 PY 2004 PD DEC 24 VL 306 IS 5705 GA 882PE UT ISI:000225950000026 ER PT J AU Reilly, JM Schimmelpfennig, D TI Agricultural impact assessment, vulnerability, and the scope for adaptation SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Review C1 MIT, Joint Program Sci & Policy Global Change, Cambridge, MA 02139 USA. Econ Res Serv, USDA, Washington, DC 20036 USA. RP Reilly, JM, MIT, Joint Program Sci & Policy Global Change, 77 Massachusetts Ave,Bldg E40-263, Cambridge, MA 02139 USA. AB Climate change assessments which have considered climate impacts of a 2xCO(2) climate, using models of the global agricultural system, have found small impacts on overall production, but larger regional changes. Production shifts among regions can be considered one mechanism for adaptation. Adaptation at the farm level, through changes in crops, cultivars, and production practices, is another adaptation mechanism. Existing studies differ in how important these mechanisms will be. Studies that have considered yield effects at specific sites have found very wide ranges of impacts. A useful way to evaluate the impacts of climate change, given the uncertainty about future impacts, is to consider vulnerability. Studies have defined vulnerability in terms of yield, farm profitability, regional economy, and hunger. Vulnerability and climate impacts, particularly in terms of higher order effects on profitability and sustainability, will depend on how society and the economy develop. Lower income populations and marginal agricultural regions, particularly arid or flood prone areas, are most vulnerable to climate change. 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INT DEV, V7, P807 WINTERS P, IN PRESS GLOBAL ENV YATES DN, 1996, ENVIRON MODEL ASSESS, V1, P119 YOHE GW, 1999, GLOBAL ENV CHANGE AG, P193 YUDELMAN M, 1993, DEMAND SUPPLY FOODST NR 130 TC 8 J9 CLIMATIC CHANGE BP 745 EP 788 PY 1999 PD DEC VL 43 IS 4 GA 248KD UT ISI:000083272900006 ER PT J AU BURBY, RJ NELSON, AC TI LOCAL-GOVERNMENT AND PUBLIC ADAPTATION TO SEA-LEVEL RISE SO JOURNAL OF URBAN PLANNING AND DEVELOPMENT-ASCE LA English DT Article C1 GEORGIA INST TECHNOL,GRAD CITY PLANNING PROGRAM,ATLANTA,GA 30332. RP BURBY, RJ, UNIV N CAROLINA,CTR URBAN & REG STUDIES,CHAPEL HILL,NC 27499. AB Global warming could result in a rise in global mean sea level of 9-29 cm between 1990 and 2030. By the end of the 21st century, global mean sea level could stand 30-110 cm higher than in 1990. Those projections suggest that sea level could rise between 3 and 10 cm per decade during the next century. This is a marked acceleration over the increase of 1-2 cm per decade observed during the past century. How will local governments and citizens respond? What are the obstacles to local government and public cognition of, and response to, sea-level rise? This paper reviews some of the basic issues involved in responding to accelerated sea-level rise; the range of possible policy responses; the extent to which local governments and the public perceive and respond to threats of sea-level rise; and the need for research into the determinants of cognition and response. CR WORKING GROUPS 1 2 3 1987, CONFRONTING NATURAL 1990, CLIMATE CHANGE IPCC BIRD CF, 1985, COASTLINE CHANGES GL BURBY RJ, 1981, J AM PLANN ASSOC, V47, P289 BURBY RJ, 1985, FLOODPLAIN LAND USE BURBY RJ, 1988, CITIES WATER BURBY RJ, 1991, SHARING ENV RISKS BURTON I, 1978, ENV HAZARD, V1, P1 BUTTEL FH, 1987, ANNU REV SOCIOL, V13, P465 CARDEW R, 1990, PLANNER, V3, P36 COTGROVE S, 1982, CATASTROPHE CORNUCOP CROWLEY BM, 1989, HOTTING GREENHOUSE E CULLEN P, 1982, COAST ZONE MANAGE J, V10, P183 DEAN RG, 1987, RESPONDING CHANGES S DILLMAN DA, 1978, MAIL TELEPHONE SURVE DOUGLAS M, 1982, RISK CULTURE GODSCHALK DR, 1989, CATASTROPHIC COASTAL HENDERSONSELLER.A, 1989, GREENHOUSE EFFECT LI HOFFMAN JS, 1983, PROJECTING FUTURE SE HOOTSMAN MJ, 1990, H1068 DELFT HYDR REP KATES RW, 1962, 78 U CHIC DEP GEOGR KATES RW, 1976, ENV PSYCHOL PEOPLE T, P401 KUNREUTHER H, 1978, DISASTER INSURANCE P LEWIS J, 1989, EPA J, V15, P3 MILBRATH LW, 1984, ENV VANGUARD NEW SOC MULLER FO, 1989, GREENHOUSE EFFECT PL NELSON AC, 1991, POLICY OPTIONS LOCAL PEARMAN GI, 1987, GREENHOUSE PLANNING PEARMAN GI, 1988, GREENHOUSE PLANNING REILLY WK, 1990, EPA J, V16, P32 REVELLE R, 1983, CHANGING CLIMATE SCHNEIDER SH, 1988, FUTURE, P7 SCHNEIDER SH, 1989, FORUM APPLIED RES PU, V4, P24 SMITH DI, 1984, DISASTERS, V8, P105 SMITH JB, 1990, EPA J, V16, P29 THOMPSON M, 1983, RISK ANAL DECISION P, P233 TITUS JG, 1989, FORUM APPLIED RES PU, V4, P31 TITUS JG, 1990, J AM PLANN ASSOC, V56, P311 TURNER RK, 1990, CITIES RISK WALKER GR, 1981, P S HURRICANES FLOOD YAPP GA, 1986, COAST ZONE MANAGE J, V14, P47 ZEHNER RB, 1991, IN PRESS AUSTR PLANN NR 43 TC 1 J9 J URBAN PLAN DEV-ASCE BP 140 EP 153 PY 1991 PD DEC VL 117 IS 4 GA GQ413 UT ISI:A1991GQ41300002 ER PT J AU Gray, SJ TI Ecology of weaning among nomadic Turkana pastoralists of Kenya: Maternal thinking, maternal behavior, and human adaptive strategies SO HUMAN BIOLOGY LA English DT Article RP Gray, SJ, UNIV KANSAS,DEPT ANTHROPOL,LAWRENCE,KS 66045. AB Weaning of human children is a complex process involving the introduction of non-breast-mill; foods, reduction in suckling activity, and eventual termination of breast feeding. Because the choice of strategies for each component of the weaning process depends on the operating environmental constraints, reproductive demands on women, and prevailing levels of infant and weanling mortality, it is appropriate to examine weaning practices as human adaptive strategies. Here, I examine the structure of weaning and maternal attitudes toward weaning among nomadic Turkana pastoralists from the perspective of human adaptation. Using retrospective and prospective data on breast feeding, the use of non-breast-milk foods, and the cessation of breast feeding, I identify ideal strategies as those defined by Turkana women. Real behavior in relation to weaning, however, deviates considerably from the ideal, and this deviation reflects adaptive responses to nutritional and disease risks to infants. Particular attention is given to problematic aspects of weaning practices in Turkana, such as premature introduction of non-breast-milk foods and abrupt termination of breast feeding, which have been shown to contribute to high infant and weanling mortality in populations in developing countries. These practices have evolved from the dual caretaking and childbearing role of women and the necessity of reconciling the needs of the breast-feeding child with the demands of the next pregnancy. As such, they represent rational strategies for enhancing reproductive success in this and other similarly stressful environments. 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Univ Jena, Inst Geog, D-07743 Jena, Germany. Thuringian Agcy Agr, D-07702 Jena, Germany. Bur Appl Hydrol, D-13187 Berlin, Germany. Bavarian State Inst Forestry, D-85354 Freising Weihenstephan, Germany. RP Klocking, B, Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res, POB 601203, D-14412 Potsdam, Germany. AB In order to study the impacts of Global Change induced future agricultural land-use patterns on regional water dynamics and water quality, the spatial and temporal crop distribution under present and under scenario conditions is needed. The development of land-use changes inside the arable areas was simulated by a bottom-up approach basing on the analysis of adaptation reactions of farmers. A Geographic Information System-based approach was developed, that performs a spatial allocation of these crop schemes, and reproduces the agricultural fruit patterns and rotation cycles. This so called "crop generator" was applied to the Thuringian Basin in Germany and the distributed eco-hydrological model ArcEGMO was run to simulate the water dynamics in the basin of the Upper Unstrut for the political frame of the European Union's AGENDA 2000. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 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AB With a few possible exceptions, the breeding systems of domestic pigs represented in mainland New Guinea fall into one of three categories. In the first, all pigs in Be care of people are the progeny of matings between wild boars and wild sows, and the captive population is fully alienated from breeding. In the second, some pigs in the care of people are the progeny of matings between wild boars and domestic sows, and the remainder are the progeny of wild boars and wild sows. The relative contributions of domestic and wild sows as mothers to the piglets that are taken into care vary among societies that implement this system of breeding pigs. In the third category, all pigs in the care of people are the progeny of matings between domestic boars and domestic sows. Thus, in nearly all New. Guinean domestic pig populations the fathers of those pigs are either all wild boars or all domestic boars and, contrary to earlier conclusions there is no continuum of pig-breeding systems within New Guinea. rt is argued that the relatively high costs associated with managing domestic boars have inhibited transformation to full male and female breeding except in areas, such as highland New Guinea, where wild pigs are absent or rare. Further, the transformation to breeding systems of this type is likely to have been abrupt. Potential complications arising from inbreeding depression in small populations suggest that the circulation of live pigs among prehistoric New Guinean communities was a necessary precursor to the shift to full male and female breeding. Questions concerning the emergence of social complexity within the New Guinea highlands will need to be revisited in the light of this interpretation. 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RP Armitage, D, Wilfrid Laurier Univ, Dept Geog & Environm Studies, Waterloo, ON N2L 3C5, Canada. AB Why do some community-based natural resource management strategies perform better than others? Commons theorists have approached this question by developing institutional design principles to address collective choice situations, while other analysts have critiqued the underlying assumptions of community-based resource management. However, efforts to enhance community-based natural resource management performance also require an analysis of exogenous and endogenous variables that influence how social actors not only act collectively but do so in ways that respond to changing circumstances, foster learning, and build capacity for management adaptation. Drawing on examples from northern Canada and Southeast Asia, this article examines the relationship among adaptive capacity, community-based resource management performance, and the socio-institutional determinants of collective action, such as technical, financial, and legal constraints, and complex issues of politics, scale, knowledge, community and culture. An emphasis on adaptive capacity responds to a conceptual weakness in community-based natural resource management and highlights an emerging research and policy discourse that builds upon static design principles and the contested concepts in current management practice. CR *NRTEE, 2001, AB COMM NONR RES DEV ADAMS WM, 2003, SCIENCE, V302, P1915 ADGER WN, 2003, CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPT, P29 ADGER WN, 2004, 7 U E ANGL TYND CTR AGRAWAL A, 2002, DRAMA COMMONS, P41 ARMITAGE D, 2002, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V12, P203 ARMITAGE DR, SAILING BUILDING SHI ARMITAGE DR, 2003, ENVIRON CONSERV, V30, P79 ARMITAGE DR, 2004, NATURE SOC DYNAMICS BALAND JM, 1996, HALTING DEGRADATION BARR C, 2002, DECENTRALISATION FOR BARRETT CB, 2001, BIOSCIENCE, V51, P497 BERKES F, 1998, LINKING SOCIAL ECOLO, V1, P1 BERKES F, 2003, NAVIGATING SOCIAL EC, V1, P1 BERKES F, 2005, BREAKING ICE RENEWAB BORRINIFEYERBAN.G, 1996, COLLABORATIVE MANAGE BROSIUS JP, 1998, SOC NATUR RESOUR, V11, P157 BUCK L, 2001, BIOL DIVERSITY BALAN COLCHESTER M, 1994, DEV CHANGE, V25, P69 DAHL J, 2000, SAQQAQ INUIT HUNTING DIETZ T, 2003, SCIENCE, V302, P1907 FOLKE C, 2003, NAVIGATING SOCIAL EC, P352 GUNDERSON LH, 2002, PANARCHY UNDERSTANDI, V1, P1 GUNDERSON LH, 2003, NAVIGATING SOCIAL EC HOLLING CS, 2002, PANARCHY UNDERSTANDI, P63 JENTOFT S, 2000, MAR POLICY, V24, P53 JOHANNES RE, 2002, ANNU REV ECOL SYST, V33, P317 KELLERT SR, 2000, SOC NATUR RESOUR, V13, P705 LANE MB, 2001, SOC NATUR RESOUR, V14, P657 LI TM, 2001, MOD ASIAN STUD 3, V35, P645 LI TM, 2002, DEV CHANGE, V33, P415 LI TM, 2002, WORLD DEV, V30, P265 MARSCHKE M, 2003, CAN J DEV STUD, V24, P369 MCCARTHY JF, 2001, DECENTRALISATION LOC MCCAY BJ, 1998, HUM ORGAN, V57, P21 NADASDY P, 2003, ARCTIC, V56, P367 OLSSON P, 2004, ECOLOGY SOC, V9, P2 OSTROM E, 1990, GOVERNING COMMONS EV OSTROM E, 2002, DRAMA COMMONS PEET R, 1996, LIBERATION ECOLOGIES PINKERTON E, 1989, COOPERATIVE MANAGEME POMEROY RS, 1995, OCEAN COAST MANAGE, V27, P143 POMEROY RS, 2001, MAR POLICY, V25, P197 POTTER L, 2001, EFFECTS INDONESIAS D PRETTY J, 2003, SCIENCE, V302, P1912 PUTNAM RD, 1995, J DEMOCR, V6, P65 RUITENBEEK J, 2001, 34 CTR INT FOR RES SATRIA A, MARINE POLICY SMITH JB, CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPT SMITH PAC, 1996, LEARNING ORG, V3, P4 STERN P, 2002, DRAMA COMMONS, P445 THORBURN C, 2002, SOC NATUR RESOUR, V15, P617 USHER P, 2003, CAN GEOGR, V47, P356 WALKER BH, 2002, RESILIENCE MANAGEMEN WEITZNER V, 2001, P 11 C RES RES MAN P, P253 WHITE G, 2000, J CAN STUD, V35, P80 ZERNER, 2000, PEOPLE PLANTS JUSTIC ZIMMERER K, 2003, POLITICAL ECOLOGY IN NR 58 TC 3 J9 ENVIRON MANAGE BP 703 EP 715 PY 2005 PD JUN VL 35 IS 6 GA 938WF UT ISI:000230033400001 ER PT J AU Conway, D TI From headwater tributaries to international river: Observing and adapting to climate variability and change in the Nile basin SO GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS LA English DT Article C1 Univ E Anglia, Sch Dev Studies, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. RP Conway, D, Univ E Anglia, Sch Dev Studies, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. AB Egypt is almost totally dependent upon water that originates from the upstream headwaters of the Nile in the humid Ethiopian and East African highlands. Analysis of rainfall and river flow records during the 20th century demonstrates high levels of interannual and interdecadal variability. This is experienced locally and regionally in the headwater regions of the Nile and internationally through its effects on downstream Nile flows in Sudan and Egypt. Examples of climate variability are presented from areas in the basin where it exerts a strong influence on society; the Ethiopian highlands (links with food security), Lake Victoria (management of non-stationary lake levels) and Egypt (exposure to interdecadal variability of Nile flows). These examples reveal adaptations across various scales by individuals and institutions acting alongside other social and economic considerations. Water resources management in the downstream riparian Egypt has involved institutional level reactive adaptations to prolonged periods of low and high Nile flows. Observed responses include the establishment of more robust contingency planning and early warning systems alongside strategic assessment of water use and planning in response to low flows during the 1980s. In the 1990s high flows have enabled Egypt to pursue opportunistic policies to expand irrigation. These policies are embedded in wider sociopolitical and economic considerations but increase Egypt's exposure and sensitivity to climate driven fluctuations in Nile flows. Analysis of climate change projections for the region shows there is no clear indication of how Nile flows will be affected because of uncertainty about future rainfall patterns in the basin. In many instances the most appropriate entry point for adaptation to climate change will be coping with climate variability and will play out against the certainty of looming national water scarcity in Egypt due to rapid population growth and its possible exacerbation by water demands from upstream riparians. (C) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *IPCC, 2001, CLIM CHANG 2001 SCI *MWRI, 1999, WORLD WAT VIS WAT FO *UNDP WMO, 1982, HYDR SURV CATCHM LAK ABUZEID M, 1991, WATER RESOURCES DEV, V7, P74 ABUZEID M, 1992, CLIMATIC FLUCTUATION, P48 ABUZEID M, 1992, WMO B, V41, P35 ADGER WN, 2005, GLOBAL ENV, V15, P77 ALLAN T, 2003, WATER INT, V28, P106 CONWAY D, 1993, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V25, P127 CONWAY D, 1996, AMBIO, V25, P336 CONWAY D, 1996, INT J WATER RESOUR D, V12, P261 CONWAY D, 2000, GEOGR J 1, V166, P49 CONWAY D, 2002, ADV GLOB CHANGE RES, V12, P63 DEWAAL A, 1997, FAMINE CRIMES POLITI ELDAW AK, 2003, J APPL METEOROL, V42, P890 ELKADY M, 2003, 3 INT WAT HIST ASS C ELSHAER MH, 1997, SOC RESPONSES REGION ELWAN MY, 2002, 8 ANN NIL 2002 C NAI FREDERICK KD, 1999, WATER GLOBAL CLIMATE GEORGAKAKOS A, 2004, IFAC WORKSH MOD CONT GLANTZ MH, 1992, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V2, P183 GLEICK PH, 1991, ENV PROFESSIONAL, V13, P66 GOULDEN M, 2004, P TREES RAIN POL AFR, P171 HOEKSTRA AY, 2002, VALUE WATER RES REPO, V11 HOMERDIXON T, 1995, POPUL DEV REV, V21, P587 HULME M, 1994, NILE SHARING SCARCE, P139 HULME M, 2001, CLIMATE RES, V17, P145 HULME M, 2003, 8 LIV LAK C TYND CTR HULME M, 2004, GEOGR J 2, V170, P105 HURST HE, 1946, NILE BASIN, V7 HURST HE, 1965, LONG TERM STORAGE EX HURST HE, 1966, NILE BASIN, V10 JOHNSON DH, 1988, ECOLOGY SURVIVAL, P173 KANDIL HM, 2003, INT J WATER RESOUR D, V19, P221 KITE GW, 1981, EFFECTS CHANGING PRE KITE GW, 1981, HYDROL SCI B, V26, P233 MOHAMED AS, 2000, PHYS CHEM EARTH PT B, V25, P251 MUTAI CC, 1998, INT J CLIMATOL, V18, P975 NANDALAL KDW, 2003, WATER RESOUR RES, V39 OHLSSON L, 2000, NEW DIMENSIONS WAT 3 ONYEJI SE, 1994, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V4, P281 PIPER BS, 1986, HYDROLOG SCI J, V31, P25 RADWAN LS, 1997, GEOGR J 1, V163, P78 RAHMATO D, 1991, FAMINE SURVIVAL STRA SCHAAKE JC, 1993, IAHS PUB, V211 SENE KJ, 2000, HYDROLOG SCI J, V45, P125 SILESHI Y, 1995, J BIOGEOGR, V22, P945 SMITH B, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P223 STRZEPEK K, 1996, WATER RESOUR DEV, V12, P229 STRZEPEK K, 2001, INTEGRATED ASSESSMEN, V2, P139 SUBAK S, 2000, WATER RESOUR MANAG, V14, P137 SUTCLIFFE JV, 1999, IAHS SPECIAL PUBLICA, V5 TATE E, 2004, HYDROLOG SCI J, V49, P563 TURTON AR, 1999, 9 MEWREW SOAS WAT IS WATERBURY J, 2002, NILE BASIN NATL DETE WEBSTER PJ, 1999, NATURE, V401, P356 WHITE AA, 1986, SPINE STATE ART REV, V1, P1 WICHELNS D, 2002, AGR WATER MANAGE, V52, P155 WICHELNS D, 2003, WATER RESOURCES DEV, V19, P335 YATES DN, 1998, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V38, P261 YOHE GW, 2003, CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPT, P101 NR 61 TC 3 J9 GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANGE BP 99 EP 114 PY 2005 PD JUL VL 15 IS 2 GA 931VR UT ISI:000229514100004 ER PT J AU Galaz, V TI Social-ecological resilience and social conflict: Institutions and strategic adaptation in Swedish water management SO AMBIO LA English DT Article C1 Univ Gothenburg, Dept Polit Sci, SE-10691 Stockholm, Sweden. Univ Stockholm, Ctr Transdisciplinary Environm Res CTM, SE-10691 Stockholm, Sweden. RP Galaz, V, Univ Gothenburg, Dept Polit Sci, SE-10691 Stockholm, Sweden. AB Dealing with uncertainty and complexity in social-ecological systems is profoundly dependent on the ability of natural resource users to learn and adapt from ecological surprises and crises. This paper analyzes why and how learning processes are affected by strategic behavior among natural resource users and how social conflict is affected by social and ecological uncertainty. The claim is that social conflict among natural resource users seriously inhibits the possibilities of learning and adaptation in social-ecological systems. This is done combining insights from political science, experimental economics, an social-psychology and an analytical case study elaborating social conflict and institutional change in Swedish water management institutions. This paper also discusses the crucial role the institutional context plays in defining the outcome of learning processes in Swedish water management institutions and hence highlights previously poorly elaborated political aspects of learning processes and institutional change in social-ecological systems. 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RP Appelgren, B, FAO, AGLW, Via Terme Caracalla, I-00100 Rome, Italy. AB Water is a scarce resource. It is critical to social and economic development, and directly affects the behaviour of society. With close links between society and water management, the importance of social and economic approaches to management of water scarcity is increasingly being recognized. The focus is here on the adaptive capacity of societies both for policy making and for conflict resolution to address water scarcity, recognizing the limitations in these adaptive capacities. Social resource scarcity could limit not only capacity to address water scarcity but also have wider social security implications for adaptive processes. There is therefore a need to develop policy options to stimulate adaptive processes and strengthen social resource capacity. Further, the paper discusses the links between water scarcity and its driving forces, such as population increase, environmental degradation and unequal access to water, and the various categories of related conflicts. The need to consider the social resource capacity of countries and societies and the use of alternative indicators for this purpose is addressed using the UNDP Human Development Index as a proxy for the social adaptive capacity of societies. A broad programme of research and capacity building in the use of a composite biological-social index could be expected to trigger a better understanding between disciplines and re-focus technical cooperation programmes on social issues. While markets can sometimes react efficiently to mitigate water scarcity, the necessary institutional conditions are seldom met. Social, environmental and equity parameters also need to be considered in applying market approaches, and neo-classical water resources economics is losing ground to economic paradigms related to political and evolutionary processes. Macro- and sectoral issues are increasingly at the forefront of the water scarcity debate, involving a range of questions: from virtual water, high costs of O&M, to privatization of water sector operations. Macro and sector policies often have an important impact on realization of socio-economic and environmental benefits from present and future investments in the water sector. A country's overall development strategy and use of macro-economic policies, including fiscal, monetary and trade policies, affect water demand and investment. As a consequence, there is need for an integrated approach encompassing social, economic and environmental policies. The paper draws from examples on water scarcity management that were presented in a recent FAO electronic conference and in regional expert consultations on water scarcity management in the Near East. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *FAO, 1997, 1ST FAO EMAIL C MAN *UN ESCAP, 1976, ESCAP WAT RESOURCES, V47 ABRAMS LJ, 1996, AFRICA SECTOR REV RE APPELGREN B, 1998, SOCIAL RESOURCE SCAR ARTHUR RAJ, 1998, WATER ENV JAN BARBIER E, 1996, RESOURCE SCARCITY I CINCOTTA RP, 1997, EC RAPID CHANGE INFL FREDERIKSEN HD, 1996, J WATER RES PL-ASCE, V122, P79 GARDNEROUTLAW T, 1997, SUSTAINING WATER EAS HALLDING K, 1997, MILJOINDIKATORER FOR HOMERDIXON T, 1995, POPUL DEV REV, V21, P587 KEMPER KE, 1996, LINKOPING STUDIES AR, V137 LUNDQVIST J, 1997, UN COMPREHENSIVE ASS, CH4 OHLSSON L, 1998, 2 FAO E MAIL C WAT S RASKINS P, 1997, WATER FUTURES ASSESS NR 15 TC 4 J9 PHYS CHEM EARTH P B-HYDROL OC BP 361 EP 373 PY 1999 VL 24 IS 4 GA 234NV UT ISI:000082491500014 ER PT J AU Yohe, GW TI Assessing the role of adaptation in evaluating vulnerability to climate change SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 Wesleyan Univ, Dept Econ, Middletown, CT 06459 USA. Carnegie Mellon Univ, Ctr Integrated Study Human Dimens Global Change, Pittsburgh, PA 15213 USA. RP Yohe, GW, Wesleyan Univ, Dept Econ, Middletown, CT 06459 USA. AB Three types of adaptation can influence significantly a system's prospective longevity in the face of climate change. The ability to cope with variation in its current environment can help a system adapt to changes over the longer term. The ability to take advantage of beneficial changes that might coincide with potentially harmful ones can play an even larger role; and focusing attention on maximizing a system's sustainable lifetime can highlight the potential for extending that time horizon and increasing the likelihood that an alternative structure might be created. A specific economic approach to adaptation demonstrates that research can serve two functions in this regard. Research can play an important role in diminishing future harm suggested by standard impact analyses by focusing attention on systems where adaptation can buy the most time. It can help societies learn how to become more robust under current conditions; and it can lead them to explore mechanisms by which they can exploit potentially beneficial change. Research can also play a critical role in assessing the need for mitigating long-term change by focusing attention on systems where potential adaptation in both the short and long runs is so limited that it is almost impossible to buy any time at all. In these areas, switching to an alternative system or investing in the protection of existing ones are the last lines of defense. Real "windows" of tolerable climate change can be defined only by working in areas where these sorts of adaptive alternatives cannot be uncovered. CR BURTON I, 1997, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V36, P185 DINAR A, 1998, 402 WORLD BANK DOWNING TE, 1997, MITIGATION ADAPTATIO, V2, P19 FREDERICK KD, 1997, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V37, P141 FREDERICK KD, 1997, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V37, P291 MEARNS LO, 1996, UNPUB MEAN VARIANCE MENDELSOHN R, 1994, AM ECON REV, V84, P753 MENDELSOHN R, 1996, ENVIRONMETRICS JUL MENDELSOHN R, 1999, IMPACT CLIMATE CHANG MILLER KA, 1997, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V35, P157 ROSENBERG NJ, 1991, ENVIRON CONSERV, V18, P313 ROSENZWEIG C, 1993, AGR DIMENSIONS GLOBA SCHIMMELPFENNIG D, 1996, GLOBAL ENV CHANGE AG SMIT B, 1996, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V33, P7 SMITH JB, 1996, ADAPTING CLIMATE CHA SMITHERS J, 1997, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V37, P134 YOHE GW, 1996, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V32, P387 YOHE GW, 1997, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V37, P243 YOHE GW, 1998, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V38, P437 NR 19 TC 3 J9 CLIMATIC CHANGE BP 371 EP 390 PY 2000 PD AUG VL 46 IS 3 GA 352XG UT ISI:000089244200010 ER PT J AU Abler, DG Shortle, JS TI Climate change and agriculture in the Mid-Atlantic Region SO CLIMATE RESEARCH LA English DT Article C1 Penn State Univ, Dept Agr Econ & Rural Sociol, University Pk, PA 16802 USA. RP Abler, DG, Penn State Univ, Dept Agr Econ & Rural Sociol, University Pk, PA 16802 USA. AB Agriculture in the Mid-Atlantic Region, like agriculture worldwide, has an intrinsic relationship with climate. This article considers how climate change might affect future Mid-Atlantic agriculture. Our assessment differs from prior work in 2 important ways. First, prior assessments have for the most part examined the impacts of future climate change on present-day agriculture. neglecting the fact that agriculture is likely to change dramatically in the coming century independent of climate change. Second, previous assessments have focused almost exclusively on the impacts of climate change on agricultural production. Societal interest in agriculture, however, is much broader than production because agriculture is a source of both rural amenities and negative environmental impacts. Our assessment suggests that Mid-Atlantic crop and livestock production will probably not change significantly in either direction. There might be changes in the environmental impacts of agricultural production and land use, but we currently lack evidence on the magnitudes and even directions of these changes. Given that agriculture currently has significant negative impacts on water quality in many areas, including the Chesapeake Bay, this should be a high priority for research. In addition, research is needed to understand climate impacts on agriculture's contributions to wildlife habitat, rural landscape amenities and carbon sequestration. 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RP Doos, BR, Global Environm Management, Packhusgrand 6, SE-11130 Stockholm, Sweden. 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One aim of sharing this agenda here is to catalyse discussions among a wider group active in the climate change, development and disaster/humanitarian relief communities about how best to support community-led adaptation. As set out in the Conceptual Overview in this IDS Bulletin, one of the main conclusions of the LCA Project is to suggest strengthening research, policy and operational linkages between these three, currently quite separate, communities. The selection and formulation of research questions reflects a judgement on the part of the authors. The questions are broadly defined to allow elaboration, challenges, re-framings and add-ons, as we may have neglected issues outside our frame of focus: how community-led adaptation in vulnerable countries can be supported through the generation, dissemination and use of research. 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RP Dow, KM, Univ S Carolina, Columbia, SC 29208 USA. AB Losses from an oil spill in 1992 differed substantially among coastal resource users on the Malaysian island of Langkawi. Even among the small-scale fishers, those generally considered to be the most vulnerable to such an event,losses varied significantly. This investigation of vulnerability examines causes for the distribution of losses, including fishers' ability to mediate their exposure to risks and the variety of coping strategies they adopted. Explanations for differences in vulnerability are found both in the everyday interactions of processes shaping vulnerability and in the ways in which the "extraordinary" circumstances of a disaster alter those everyday processes. 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Tyndall Ctr Climate Change Res, Norwich, Norfolk, England. Monash Univ, Sch Math Sci, Clayton, Vic 3168, Australia. RP Dessai, S, Univ E Anglia, Sch Environm Sci, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. AB Climate scenarios have been widely used in impact, vulnerability and adaptation assessments of climate change. However, few studies have actually looked at the role played by climate scenarios in adaptation planning. This paper examines how climate scenarios fit in three broad adaptation frameworks: the IPCC approach, risk approaches, and human development approaches. The use (or not) of climate scenarios in three real projects, corresponding to each adaptation approach, is investigated. It is shown that the role played by climate scenarios is dependant on the adaptation assessment approach, availability of technical and financial capacity to handle scenario information, and the type of adaptation being considered. (C) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 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NOAA Paleoclimatol Program, Boulder, CO 80305 USA. Forest Dept, Jaipur 302005, Rajasthan, India. Phys Res Lab, Ahmedabad 380009, Gujarat, India. RP Gupta, AK, Indian Inst Technol, Dept Geol & Geophys, Kharagpur 721302, W Bengal, India. AB Human societies have evolved through a complex system of climate and ecological interactions. Known records suggest intimate relationship of adaptations, mitigations and migrations to climate extremes leaving their im- pacts on human societies. The northwestern part of India provides such an example, where human civilizations flourished in the early Holocene along the major fluvial systems when the Indian summer (southwest) monsoon was much stronger and rainfall was higher over the Indian land mass. Summers were thus wetter, conducive to agriculture and ecodiversity. Changes in the early civilizations in the Indian subcontinent had a close relation to changes in the monsoon climate over the past 10,000 years. The summer monsoon has weak- ened over the last 7000 years since its peak intensification in the early Holocene (10,000-7000 cal yrS BP). Discrete intervals of dry phases in the summer monsoon are visible in the proxy record of the monsoon winds from the marine sediments of the Arabian Sea, which had significant impact on human settlements in South Asia. The strongest aridity in the Indian subcontinent and extended periods of droughts at ca 5000-4000 cal yrS BP seems to have triggered eastward human migrations towards the Ganga plain. Other times of monsoon weakening during the Holocene are coincident with the initial development of ponds, reservoirs and other rainwater harvesting structures that may have served as an adaptation to climate change. 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RP Moser, SC, Natl Ctr Atmospher Res, Inst Study Soc & Environm, POB 3000, Boulder, CO 80307 USA. AB Uncertainties in the human dimensions of global change deeply affect the assessment and responses to climate change impacts such as sea-level rise (SLR). This paper explores the uncertainties in the assessment process and in state-level policy and management responses of three US states to SLR. The findings reveal important political, economic, managerial, and social factors that enable or constrain SLR responses; question disasters as policy windows; and uncover new policy opportunities in the history of state coastal policies. Results suggest that a more realistic, and maybe more useful picture of climate change impacts will emerge if assessments take more seriously the locally embedded realities and constraints that affect individual decision-makers' and communal responses to climate change. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 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CONN L REV, V23, P567 WILLIAMS JB, 1995, AUST J ZOOL, V43, P1 WILLOWS R, 2003, CLIMATE ADAPTATION R WYNNE B, 1987, SCI PUBL POLICY, P95 WYNNE B, 1992, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V6, P87 YOUNG OR, 2002, I DIMENSIONS ENV CHA NR 129 TC 2 J9 GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANGE BP 353 EP 369 PY 2005 PD DEC VL 15 IS 4 GA 988TG UT ISI:000233623200007 ER PT J AU Easterling, WE Chhetri, N Niu, XZ TI Improving the realism of modeling agronomic adaptation to climate change: Simulating technological substitution SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 Penn State Univ, Dept Geog, University Pk, PA 16802 USA. Penn State Univ, Dept Crop & Soil Sci, University Pk, PA 16802 USA. RP Easterling, WE, Penn State Univ, Dept Geog, University Pk, PA 16802 USA. AB The purpose of the paper is to propose and test a new approach to simulating farmers' agronomic adaptation to climate change based on the pattern of adoption of technological innovation/substitution over time widely described as a S-shaped (or logistic) curve, i.e., slow growth at the beginning followed by accelerating and then decelerating growth, ultimately leading to saturation. The approach we developed is tested using the Erosion Productivity Impact Calculator crop model applied to corn production systems in the southeastern U. S. using a high-resolution climate change scenario. Corn is the most extensively grown crop in the southeastern U. S. The RegCM limited area model nested within the CSIRO general circulation model generated the scenario. We compare corn yield outcomes using this new form of adaptation (logistic) with climatically optimized (clairvoyant) adaptation. The results show logistic adaptation to be less effective than clairvoyant adaptation in ameliorating climate change impacts on yields, although the differences between the two sets of yields are statistically significant in one case only. These results are limited by the reliance on a single scenario of climate change. We conclude that the logistic technique should be tested widely across climate change scenarios, crop species, and geographic areas before a full evaluation of its effect on outcomes is possible. 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RP Minnegal, M, UNIV MELBOURNE,PARKVILLE,VIC 3052,AUSTRALIA. AB This paper depicts connections and interactions between several apparently disparate themes of change observed in recent years at a village in the interior lowlands of Western Province, Papua New Guinea. Changes in patterns of association between men and women can be traced, in the first instance, to altered management practices necessitated by intensified pig production. That intensification, in turn, reflects the growing importance of money in the local economy, a shift which, through its predication on recognising the commensurability of differences, has ramifications far beyond the economics of pig production. An earlier emphasis on equivalence in exchanges has been replaced by a recognition of substitutability, with a consequent reification of categories at the expense of individuality. 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Univ Quebec, CRSNG, UQAT, UQAM Amenagement Forestier Durable,Chaire Ind, Rouyn Noranda, PQ J9X 5E4, Canada. Canadian Forestry Serv, Nat Resources Canada, Great Lakes Forestry Ctr, Sault Ste Marie, ON P6A 2E5, Canada. RP Le Goff, H, Univ Quebec, Grp Rech Ecol Forestiere Interuniv, Succursalle Ctr Ville CP 8888, Montreal, PQ H3C 3P8, Canada. AB Climate influences natural processes at multiple spatial and temporal scales. Consequently, climate change raises many challenges for sustainable forest management; among them, the integration of fire and forest management is increasingly discussed. We propose here an evaluation of the adaptive capacity of forest management under changing forest fire regimes under climate change in the boreal forest of Quebec. Adaptation begins by reinterpreting current practices dealing with climatically driven variability Among them, fire suppression, and regeneration enhancement can contribute to coping with some impacts of climate change. However, there is an increasing need to develop more integrative and spatially explicit management strategies to decrease the vulnerability of forest management to changing fire risk. Some developing management strategies, such as fuel management or the triad approach (zoning system for conservation, intensive, and extensive forest management), present an interesting potential for integrating the fire risk in management plans. While fuel management and fire suppression are indicated for particularly severe fire regimes, protection against insects, and maintaining a shorter disturbance cycle using forest management represent the preferred adaptation options where the fire cycle is lengthening under climate change. CR *MRNQ, 2000, LIM NORD FOR ATTR RA ADAMOWICZ WL, 2003, SUSTAINABLE MANAGEME, P41 AMIRO BD, 2001, CAN J FOREST RES, V31, P512 AMIRO BD, 2002, FOREST CHRON, V78, P388 AMIRO BD, 2004, INT J WILDLAND FIRE, V13, P391 ANDISON DW, 2003, SUSTAINABLE MANAGEME, P433 ARCHAMBAULT S, 1993, HOLOCENE, V3, P255 ARMSTRONG GW, 1999, FOREST CHRON, V75, P497 ARMSTRONG GW, 2004, FOREST SCI, V50, P626 ASSELIN H, 2003, J BIOGEOGR, V30, P1709 BERGERON Y, 2001, CAN J FOREST RES, V31, P384 BERGERON Y, 2004, AMBIO, V33, P356 BERGERON Y, 2004, ECOLOGY, V85, P1916 BERGERON Y, 2004, FOREST CHRON, V80, P458 BESSIE WC, 1995, ECOLOGY, V76, P747 BINKLEY CS, 1994, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V28, P91 BRAIS S, 2000, FOREST ECOL MANAG, V137, P231 BURTON I, 1998, POLICY OPTIONS MAY, P6 BURTON I, 2002, CLIM POLICY, V2, P145 CAMPBELL I, 1999, 1997 SUST FOR MAN NE CARCAILLET C, 2001, J ECOL, V89, P930 CARTER MC, 2004, FOREST ECOL MANAG, V191, P93 CHAPIN FS, 2003, FRONT ECOL ENVIRON, V1, P255 CHAPIN FS, 2004, AMBIO, V33, P361 COLOMBO SJ, 1998, 50 ONT FOR RES I FOR, V143 DALE VH, 2001, BIOSCIENCE, V51, P723 DEON RG, 2004, FOREST CHRON, V80, P341 DESPONTS M, 1992, CAN J BOT, V70, P1157 DESPONTS M, 1993, J ECOL, V81, P719 DROLET B, 2002, SERVICE CANADIEN FOR, P7 FLANNIGAN M, 2001, CAN J FOREST RES, V31, P854 FLANNIGAN MD, IN PRESS CLIMATIC CH FLANNIGAN MD, 1988, J APPL METEOROL, V27, P441 FLANNIGAN MD, 1991, CAN J FOREST RES, V21, P66 FLANNIGAN MD, 1998, J VEG SCI, V9, P469 FLANNIGAN MD, 1998, J VEG SCI, V9, P477 FLANNIGAN MD, 2000, SCI TOTAL ENVIRON, V262, P221 FLANNIGAN MD, 2001, FOREST FIRES BEHAV E, P351 FLEMING RA, 2002, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V55, P251 FORGET E, 2003, CHANGEMENTS CLIMATIQ FORTIN MJ, 2002, ACTA C AM FOR FEU 9, P71 FUSSEL HS, 2002, UNDP EXP GROUP M INT GILLETT NP, 2004, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V31 GIRARDIN MP, 2004, CAN J FOREST RES, V34, P103 GIRARDIN MP, 2004, CLIM DYNAM, V23, P99 HEINSELMAN ML, 1981, WO26 US FOR SERV GEN, P7 HELY C, 2000, J VEG SCI, V11, P813 HENGELVELD H, 2004, CLIMATE CHANGE FORES HESSELN H, 2000, FOREST SCI, V46, P322 HIRSCH K, 2001, FOREST CHRON, V77, P357 HOFGAARD A, 1999, CAN J FOREST RES, V29, P1333 HOUGHTON JT, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 HUNTER ML, 1993, BIOL CONSERV, V65, P115 JOHNSTON M, 2001, SRC PUBLICATION KAFKA V, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE PRAIR KANGAS AS, 2004, FOREST POLICY ECON, V6, P169 KLEIN RJT, 1999, MITIG ADAPT STRAT GL, V4, P189 KRANKINA ON, 1997, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V36, P197 KURULOK S, 2004, 20032004 SUST FOR MA KURZ WA, 1995, WATER AIR SOIL POLL, V82, P321 LARSEN CPS, 1997, J BIOGEOGR, V24, P663 LARSEN CPS, 1998, J ECOL, V86, P815 LAVOIE L, 1998, J VEG SCI, V9, P483 LEDUC A, 2004, P WORKSH EFF CLIM CH LEFORT P, 2003, FOREST SCI, V49, P509 LEFORT P, 2004, ECOSCIENCE, V11, P433 LEGOFF H, 2004, CAN J FOREST RES, V34, P2399 LENIHAN JM, 1995, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V30, P27 LINDENMAYER DB, 2004, SCIENCE, V303, P1303 MARTELL DL, 1994, FOREST CHRON, V70, P164 MARTELL DL, 2002, ACT C AM FOR FEU 9 1, P59 MARTELL DL, 2002, CONSERV BIOL, V16, P1177 MCALPINE RS, 1999, FOREST CHRON, V75, P615 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 MCKINNON G, 2004, CLIMATE CHANGE FORES MORISSETTE JL, 2002, CAN J FOREST RES, V32, P2169 NAPPI A, 2004, FOREST CHRON, V80, P67 PAPADOPOL CS, 2000, FOREST CHRON, V76, P139 PARISIEN MA, 2003, CAN J FOREST RES, V33, P243 PARKER WC, 1998, IMPACTS CLIMATE CHAN, P40 PARKER WC, 2000, FOREST CHRON, V76, P445 PATRY P, 2002, ACT C AM FOR FEU 9 1, P97 PAYETTE S, 1985, NATURE, V313, P570 PAYETTE S, 1989, ECOLOGY, V70, P656 PRICE C, 1994, J CLIMATE, V7, P1484 PURDON M, 2004, APPL VEG SCI, V7, P49 QUENEVILLE R, 2002, SERVICE CANADIEN FOR, P101 SAPORTA R, 1997, CANADA COUNTRY STUDY SCHNEIDER RR, 2000, ALTERNATIVES FUTURES SEYMOUR RS, 1999, MAINTAINING BIODIVER, P22 SINGH T, 1991, FOREST CHRON, V67, P342 SKINNER WR, 1999, THEOR APPL CLIMATOL, V63, P89 SKINNER WR, 2002, THEOR APPL CLIMATOL, V71, P157 SMIT B, 1999, MITIGATION ADAPTATIO, V4, P199 SMIT B, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, P877 SMITH B, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P223 SPITTLEHOUSE DL, 1997, RESPONDING GLOBAL CL SPITTLEHOUSE DL, 2003, J ECOSYSTEM MANAGEME, P4 STEWART RB, 1998, SRC PUB STOCKS BJ, 1998, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V38, P1 STOCKS BJ, 2003, J GEOPHYS RES-ATMOS, P108 VANWAGNER CE, 1987, 35 CAN FOR SERV VANWAGNER CE, 1988, FOREST CHRON, V64, P182 VONGADOW K, 2000, SILVA FENN, V34, P181 WEBER MG, 1992, FOREST CHRON, V68, P324 WEBER MG, 1997, ENV REV, V5, P145 WEBER MG, 1998, AMBIO, V27, P545 WHEATON EE, 1999, GLOBAL CHANGE, V4, P215 WHEATON EE, 2001, SASK PUBL WOTTON BM, 1993, FOREST CHRON, V69, P187 YOHE GW, 2002, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V12, P25 NR 111 TC 0 J9 FOREST CHRON BP 582 EP 592 PY 2005 PD JUL-AUG VL 81 IS 4 GA 962HG UT ISI:000231721000037 ER PT J AU Burton, I May, E TI The adaptation deficit in water resource management SO IDS BULLETIN-INSTITUTE OF DEVELOPMENT STUDIES LA English DT Article C1 Univ Toronto, Inst Environm Studies, Toronto, ON, Canada. AB Water resource scientists, managers and users are considering how to adapt to the threats posed by climate change. A useful entry point is to assess the practices and policies in place to deal with current stresses arising from increasing demands and from variability in the quantity and quality of supply The record is not reassuring, with conditions deteriorating in many places. Thus there are two adaptation deficits, the current deficit and the projected deficit. Scientists in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and negotiators for the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change tend to focus on the longer term, anthropogenic climate change. A broader view of the multiple stresses on water resources shows that there is a need and an opportunity to address simultaneously the current adaptation deficit and to incorporate adaptation to reduce future stresses due to climate change. To this end, the development of a more strict and operational definition of adaptation within the Convention process could provide useful support for progress in current water management. CR *ALB EN UT BOARD, 2004, HOR MIN DEC *CEAA, 2003, INC CLIM CHANG CONS *IPCC, 2001, REP WORK GROUP, V2, P193 *KYOT, 2003, REP 3 WORLD WAT FOR *WORLD SUMM SUST D, 2003, REP PLAN IMPL BERGKAMP G, 2003, CHANGE ADAPTATION WA BURTON I, 2004, LOOK BEFORE LEAP RIS ZHANG XK, 2000, TRENDS CANADIAN STRE, V37, P987 NR 8 TC 0 J9 IDS BULL-INST DEVELOP STUD BP 31 EP + PY 2004 PD JUL VL 35 IS 3 GA 844HK UT ISI:000223148700005 ER PT J AU Page, S TI Developing countries in international negotiations: How they influence trade and climate change negotiations SO IDS BULLETIN-INSTITUTE OF DEVELOPMENT STUDIES LA English DT Article AB Developing countries have become convinced that trade can have significant effects on their total income and on their development. Most believe that the effects of climate change will be particularly damaging to poor countries, while some of the measures proposed to mitigate it could provide significant financial benefits. Although they are not the most important or direct policy instruments against poverty, the outcomes of trade and climate change negotiations matter. Therefore, countries have started to participate. Participation works best where they have most experience, where they have the broadest range of allies, and where they are not handicapped by aid dependency. Some can point to achievements. Some countries made gains on agriculture and textiles in the Uruguay Round. Since then, some have succeeded in blocking unwelcome initiatives and putting their issues forward. But the World Trade Organization (WTO) and climate change institutions have not yet been changed to be appropriate for more players with more complex interests. CR *ERM, 2002, 8409 ERM *ILEAP, 2003, NEGOTIATION POLICY B *IMF, 2003, REP WTO MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 *WTO, 2003, PROP IMPR DEC MAK PR BIRD K, 2003, ODI WORKING PAPER BOJANIC A, 2001, ODI WORKING PAPER DURRANT N, 2002, ODI WORKING PAPER FROST P, 2001, ODI WORKING PAPER FROST P, 2001, WORKING PAPER GOREUX L, 2003, REPORT AOC HESS R, 2001, ODI WORKING PAPER JAWARA F, 2003, BEHIND SCENES WTO RE MCGUIGAN C, 2002, POVERTY CLIMATE CHAN PAGE S, 2001, TRADE CLIMATE CHANGE, V31 PAGE S, 2002, ODI WORKING PAPER RICHARDS M, 2001, REPORT ESCOR RES PRO RICHARDS M, 2002, ODI BRIEFING PAPER SOLIGNACLECOMTE H, 2001, ODI WORKING PAPER STEVENS C, 2003, IDS B, V34 NR 20 TC 0 J9 IDS BULL-INST DEVELOP STUD BP 71 EP + PY 2004 PD JAN VL 35 IS 1 GA 803OH UT ISI:000220239900008 ER PT J AU McMichael, AJ Woodruff, RE Hales, S TI Climate change and human health: present and future risks SO LANCET LA English DT Review C1 Australian Natl Univ, Natl Ctr Epidemiol & Populat Hlth, Canberra, ACT 0200, Australia. Univ Otago, Wellington Sch Med & Hlth Sci, Wellington, New Zealand. RP McMichael, AJ, Australian Natl Univ, Natl Ctr Epidemiol & Populat Hlth, Canberra, ACT 0200, Australia. AB There is near unanimous scientific consensus that greenhouse gas emissions generated by human activity will change Earth's climate. The recent (globally averaged) warming by 0.5 degrees C is partly attributable to such anthropogenic emissions. Climate change will affect human health in many ways-mostly adversely. Here, we summarise the epidemiological evidence of how climate variations and trends affect various health outcomes. We assess the little evidence there is that recent global warming has already affected some health outcomes. We review the published estimates of future health effects of climate change over coming decades. Research so far has mostly focused on thermal stress, extreme weather events, and infectious diseases, with some attention to estimates of future regional food yields and hunger prevalence. An emerging broader approach addresses a wider spectrum of health risks due to the social, demographic, and economic disruptions of climate change. Evidence and anticipation of adverse health effects will strengthen the case for pre-emptive policies, and will also guide priorities for planned adaptive strategies. 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FOLLAND CK, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, P99 FRICH P, 2002, CLIMATE RES, V19, P193 GUBLER DJ, 2001, ENVIRON HEALTH PE S2, V109, P223 HAJAT S, 2004, EUR J EPIDEMIOL, V19, P959 HALES S, 1996, LANCET, V348, P1664 HALES S, 1999, ENVIRON HEALTH PERSP, V107, P99 HALES S, 2000, GLOBAL CHANGE HUMAN, V1, P66 HALES S, 2002, LANCET, V360, P830 HALL CB, 1995, MANDELL DOUGLAS BENN, P1501 HAY SI, 2002, NATURE, V415, P905 HAY SI, 2004, LANCET INFECT DIS, V4, P327 HEALY JD, 2003, J EPIDEMIOL COMMUN H, V57, P784 HOPP MJ, 2003, CLIMATE RES, V25, P85 HOUGHTON J, 2004, GLOBAL WARMING COMPL HUYNEN MMTE, 2001, ENVIRON HEALTH PERSP, V109, P463 JETTEN TH, 1997, AM J TROP MED HYG, V57, P285 KEATINGE WR, 2000, BRIT MED J, V321, P670 KEATINGE WR, 2000, INT J CIRCUMPOLAR HL, V59, P154 KEATINGE WR, 2004, SOUTH MED J, V97, P1093 KOELLE K, 2004, AM NAT, V163, P901 KOVATS RS, 2003, LANCET, V362, P1481 KOVATS RS, 2004, EPIDEMIOL INFECT, V132, P443 KOVATS RS, 2005, INT J BIOMETEOROL, V49, P207 LEDRANS M, 2004, REV PRATICIEN, V54, P1289 LINDBLADE KA, 1999, T ROY SOC TROP MED H, V93, P480 LINDGREN E, 1998, ECOL MODEL, V110, P55 LINDGREN E, 2000, ENVIRON HEALTH PERSP, V108, P119 LINDSAY SW, 1996, ANN TROP MED PARASIT, V90, P573 LIPP EK, 2002, CLIN MICROBIOL REV, V15, P757 LOEVINSOHN ME, 1994, LANCET, V343, P714 MAELZER D, 1999, ENVIRON HEALTH PERSP, V107, P817 MALHI Y, 2004, PHILOS T ROY SOC B, V359, P549 MARTENS P, 1999, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V9, P89 MARTENS WJM, 2002, ENV CHANGE CLIMATE H, P197 MCGEEHIN MA, 2001, ENVIRON HEALTH PE S2, V109, P185 MCMICHAEL AJ, 2003, CLIMATE CHANGE HUMAN MCMICHAEL AJ, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE HUMAN, P51 MCMICHAEL AJ, 2001, P NUTR SOC, V60, P195 MCMICHAEL AJ, 2003, HUMAN HLTH CLIMATE C, P116 MCMICHAEL AJ, 2004, COMP QUANTIFICATION, P1543 MEEHL GA, 2004, SCIENCE, V305, P994 MILLY PCD, 2002, NATURE, V415, P514 MORRIS JG, 1999, ANNU REV ENERG ENV, V24, P367 MUDELSEE M, 2003, NATURE, V425, P166 NDYOMUGYENYI R, 2004, ANN TROP MED PARASIT, V98, P315 NEW M, 2000, J CLIMATE, 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SCHAR C, 2004, NATURE, V427, P332 SINGH RBK, 2001, ENVIRON HEALTH PERSP, V109, P155 SMALL J, 2003, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V100, P15341 SMOYER KE, 1998, INT J BIOMETEOROL, V42, P44 SMOYER KE, 2000, INT J BIOMETEOROL, V44, P190 SNOW R, 1999, EPIDEMIOLOGY POLITIC STACHEL B, 2004, WATER SCI TECHNOL, V50, P309 STOTT PA, 2004, NATURE, V432, P610 SUTHERST RW, 2004, CLIN MICROBIOL REV, V17, P136 TANSER FC, 2003, LANCET, V362, P1792 THOMAS CJ, 2004, TRENDS PARASITOL, V20, P216 THOMPSON LG, 2002, SCIENCE, V298, P589 TOL RSJ, 2003, RISK ANAL, V23, P575 TONG SL, 2004, TROP MED INT HEALTH, V9, P298 TRENBERTH KE, 2001, SCIENCE, V293, P48 TULU AN, 1996, THESIS U LONDON VANLIESHOUT M, 2004, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V14, P87 VERGER P, 2000, REV EPIDEMIOL SAN S2, V48 WALTHER GR, 2002, NATURE, V416, P389 WEERASINGHE DP, 2002, HEART, V88, P30 WEISS RA, 2004, NAT MED S, V10, S70 WEISSKOPF MG, 2002, AM J PUBLIC HEALTH, V92, P830 WHITE NJ, 2005, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V32 WILCOX B, 2004, ECOHEALTH, V1, P211 WOODRUFF RE, 2002, EPIDEMIOLOGY, V13, P384 WOODWARD A, 2000, B WORLD HEALTH ORGAN, V78, P1148 ZEMAN P, 1997, INT J EPIDEMIOL, V26, P1121 ZHOU G, 2004, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V101, P2375 NR 144 TC 25 J9 LANCET BP 859 EP 869 PY 2006 PD MAR 11 VL 367 IS 9513 GA 021WL UT ISI:000236016500031 ER PT J AU HOLDGATE, M TI THE NEED FOR INTERNATIONAL-COOPERATION IN THE MANAGEMENT OF COASTAL ENVIRONMENTS SO MARINE POLLUTION BULLETIN LA English DT Article C1 IUCN,WORLD CONSERVAT UNION,CH-1196 GLAMD,SWITZERLAND. AB The coastal zones are areas of high biological productivity and intense human pressure. Environmental challenges arise from pollution and from urban and industrial development, Administrative, social and legal challenges centre upon the need for sound management of coastal zone resources, as an important component of national strategies for sustainability, A number of specific actions have been set out in Agenda 21, the principal product of the Earth Summit held in Rio de Janeiro in 1992. But these need to be carried forward within cross-sectoral, integrated coastal area management procedures. International action is also needed because marine ecosystems rarely coincide with national boundaries, and are affected by international economic, social and legal decisions, International scientific co-operation on marine issues is already well established, and many regional action plans and Conventions have been adopted, Technological cooperation is less advanced, Such efforts need to be intensified, and continuously adapted, Sound plans for the future must be based on good science, critical economic evaluation of resources, sensitive evaluation of social and cultural factors and of the needs of local communities, evaluation of the risks of climate change, sea-level rise and other changes, and monitoring as a basis for continuing adaptation. CR 1971, 1ST SOVIET SWEDISH S 1984, 1ST DECADE INT COOPE 1987, QUALITY STATUS N SEA 1988, OMAN COASTAL ZONE MA 1990, UNEP REGIONAL SEAS R, V1141 1990, UNEP REGIONAL SEAS R, V1142 1990, UNEP REGIONAL SEAS R, V115 1991, COMMON FUTURE WADDEN 1992, CARING EARTH STRATEG 1993, STATUS MULTILATERAL BALKAS T, 1990, UNEP REGIONAL SEAS R, V124 BRODIE JE, 1990, UNEP REGIONAL SEAS R, V127 GOMEZ ED, 1990, UNEP REGIONAL SEAS R, V126 HEMPEL G, 1993, LARGE MARINE ECOSYST HOLDGATE MW, 1994, MAR POLLUT B, V29, P258 HOLLING CS, 1978, ADAPTIVE ENV ASSESSM JEFTIC J, 1990, UNEP REGIONAL SEAS R, V132 KEATING M, 1993, EARTH SUMMITS AGENDA MYKELTUN J, 1991, ENV NO SEAS 1991 PERNETTA J, 1993, CROSS SECTORAL INTEG SCHMIDHEINY S, 1992, CHAINGING COURSE GLO SENGUPTA R, 1990, UNEP REGIONAL SEAS R, V123 SHAW DF, 1990, IRISH SEA OVERVIEW R SHERMAN K, 1993, LARGE MARINE ECOSYST STROMBERG JO, 1990, UNEP REGIONAL SEAS R, V129 TOLBA MK, 1992, WORLD ENV 1972 1992 NR 26 TC 0 J9 MAR POLLUT BULL BP 601 EP 608 PY 1994 VL 29 IS 6-12 GA RC984 UT ISI:A1994RC98400064 ER PT J AU Rosillon, F Borght, PV Sama, HB TI River contract in Wallonia (Belgium) and its application for water management in the Sourou valley (Burkina Faso) SO WATER SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY LA English DT Article C1 Univ Liege, Dept Environm, B-6700 Arlon, Belgium. Convent Promot Dev Durable, Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso. RP Rosillon, F, Univ Liege, Dept Environm, 185 Ave Longwy, B-6700 Arlon, Belgium. AB Inspired by the experience of a river contract in Wallonia (Belgium) since 1990, the implementation of a first river contract has been initiated in a West African country, Burkina Faso. This application is not limited to a simple transposition of the Walloon model. The Burkina context calls for adaptation to the local environmental and socio-economical realities with an adequate partnership management. The importance of the mobilization around this project of institutional partners, as well as local collectivities, agricultural producers and water users in general reveals the great expectations of the actors concerning this new tool of water participative management. But will the latter be equal to the task? A first assessment has been drawn up one year after the launch. During the first year of the project, a participative diagnostic was implemented but the understanding of basic notions of water management such as 'river' (not translatable in the local language), 'watershed', 'contract' were not obvious. After the identification of functions and uses of water in the basin, an environmental survey was started. This approach allows study with the river committees of the priority actions to be developed as a first project of restoration of the gallery forest alongside the stream to fight against desertification. This project of integrated and participative management of water at sub-basin level is a concrete example of solidarity and exchange know-how between North and South in the context of a sustainable development. CR *AC EAU, 2000, SOC CHART WAT NEW AP *CONAGESE, 2002, STAT ENV REP BURK FA BOUGUERRA L, 2000, CHANTIER EAU ALLIANC PETRELLA R, 1998, MANIFESTE EAU CONTRA ROSILLON F, 2001, STOCK WAT S 2001 ROSILLON F, 2002, WALLOON MODEL PARTIC SAMA HB, 1999, ARBRE DEV, V24, P22 TRICOT B, 2001, GUIDE METHODOLOGIQUE NR 8 TC 0 J9 WATER SCI TECHNOL BP 85 EP 93 PY 2005 VL 52 IS 9 GA 009HR UT ISI:000235103000010 ER PT J AU Cook, I Miller, RL Ward, DJ TI Prospects for economic fusion electricity SO FUSION ENGINEERING AND DESIGN LA English DT Article C1 EURATOM, Culham Sci Ctr, Abingdon OX14 3DB, Oxon, England. Univ Calif San Diego, Energy Res Ctr, La Jolla, CA 92093 USA. RP Cook, I, EURATOM, Culham Sci Ctr, Abingdon OX14 3DB, Oxon, England. AB Extensive studies of fusion economics have been performed in the last decade within the European Union and the United States. Over the same period major advances have been made in the physics and technology of fusion. This paper summarizes the prospects for fusion making an economically attractive contribution to the future energy mix. With modest physics optimization and anticipated near-term materials, the internal costs of fusion electricity would be about 50% more expensive than electricity from fossil fuels (not counting the costs of pollution abatement) and roughly comparable to renewables. Unlike renewables, fusion provides firm power. The use of advanced materials, technology and physics leads to an internal cost of fusion electricity approaching the internal cost from fission or fossil. Fusion has small external costs, along with wind, about an order of magnitude lower than fossil. Energy scenarios show that fusion could contribute significantly to large-scale electricity production during the second half of the century; the overall cost of fusion electricity is likely to be comparable with that from other environmentally responsible sources of electricity generation. (C) 2002 UKAEA. Published by Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. CR *OECD IEA, 1998, PROJ COSTS GEN EL UP *OECD IEA, 2000, NUCL POW SUST CLIM C *OECD IEA, 2000, WORLD EN OUTL 2000 BROWN MA, 2001, ENERG POLICY, V29, P1179 CABAL H, 1999, 26 EPS C CONTR FUS J, V23, P1453 DELENE JG, 2001, FUSION TECHNOL, V39, P228 HADLEY SW, 2001, ENERG POLICY, V29, P1285 HENDER TC, 1996, 33 UKAEA FUS HENDER TC, 1996, FUSION TECHNOL 2B, V30, P1605 LAKO P, 1998, ECN98085 LAKO P, 1998, ECNC98071 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 MEIER PJ, 2001, FUSION TECHNOL 2, V39, P507 MILLER RL, 2001, FUSION TECHNOL 2, V39, P439 PAPATHANASIOU D, 2001, ENERGY J, V22, P79 SAEZ R, 1999, SOCIOECONOMIC RES FU SAEZ R, 2001, EXTERNALITIES FUSION SCHMIDT JA, 2001, FUSION TECHNOL 2, V39, P513 SHEFFIELD J, 2001, FUSION SCI TECHNOL, V40, P1 TOKIMATSU K, IN PRESS NUCL FUSION WARD D, IN PRESS FUSION ENG WARD D, 2000, FUSION ENERGY 2000 NR 22 TC 0 J9 FUSION ENG DES BP 25 EP 33 PY 2002 PD DEC VL 63-4 GA 628LB UT ISI:000179995300004 ER PT J AU VoroB'Ev, D TI Subsistence and adaptive strategies among the Evenki in the late twentieth century SO ANTHROPOLOGY AND ARCHEOLOGY OF EURASIA LA English DT Article C1 Russian Acad Sci, Inst Ethnol & Anthropol, Moscow 117901, Russia. RP VoroB'Ev, D, Russian Acad Sci, Inst Ethnol & Anthropol, Moscow 117901, Russia. 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AB As we move into the 21st century, anthropology has enjoyed the diffusion of its knowledge into public discourse and into the discussions of other professions.' Within the academe, the American Anthropological Association recently adjusted the traditional four field approach (linguistic, biological/physical, cultural and archaeology) to include practice as a fifth field. Almost everyone in the international community at some level is struggling to make sense of how to balance economic priorities with environmental concerns. While science can attempt to evaluate the functions and risks confronting human and environmental systems, solutions to the major issues ultimately will require public choice and public responsibility. This reality raises important questions regarding what do we need to protect, how, at what cost, and who else should be involved in making these essentially value-based decisions. Here anthropology, through its broad approach, holistic perspective and field-based methods, can contribute in substantial ways. CR *US DEP INT, 1988, CULT RES MAN GUID, CH10 *US DEP INT, 1988, ETHN NAT AM EXC BATES M, 1953, ANTHR TODAY, P700 BENNETT JW, AM ANTHROPOL, V69, P441 BENNETT JW, 1976, ECOLOGICAL TRANSITIO, P378 BROADBENT ND, 1989, MISC PUBL 9 CTR ARCT, V9, P183 BROADBENT ND, 1989, MISC PUBL CTR ARCTIC, V7, P146 BROADBENT ND, 1992, ARCTIC RES US, V6, P91 BROKENSHA DW, 1980, INDIGENOUS KNOWLEDGE, P258 BUTTON G, 1992, M AM ANTHR ASS SAN F BUTTON G, 1993, N AM FREE TRADE AGRE, P30 BUTTON G, 1994, UNPUB WHEN MARTIANS CLAY J, 1991, AFTEN16 WORLD BANK E, P33 CLAY J, 1994, GENERATING INCOME CO, P23 CLAY JW, 1993, STATE PEOPLES GLOBAL, P64 CRESPI M, 1989, INT PERSPECTIVES CUL, P303 DAHLBERG K, 1986, NATURAL RESOURCES PE, P394 DENEVAN W, 1988, NEW YORK BOTANICAL G, V5, P107 ELLEN R, 1982, ENV SUBSISTENCE SYST, P324 FISKE S, 1991, RENEWABLE RESOURCES, V8, P16 FORDE CD, 1934, HABITAT EC SOC GEOGR, P500 JOHNSON JC, 1990, CITY SOC, V4, P88 KOTTAK CP, 1990, AM ANTHROPOL, V92, P723 KROEBER A, 1939, CULTURAL NATURAL ARE, P242 LINDERHOLM H, 1988, CIRCUMPOLAR HLTH S1, V47, P734 LITTLE P, 1987, LANDS RISK 3RD WORLD, P416 MORAN EF, 1990, ECOSYSTEM APPROACH A, P476 PAINTER M, 1995, SOCIAL CAUSES ENV DE, P442 POSEY D, 1989, NEW YORK BOTANICAL G, V7, P287 PUNTENNEY PJ, 1990, CULT SURVIVAL Q, V14, P9 PUNTENNEY PJ, 1994, ANN M SOC APPLIED AN PUNTENNEY PJ, 1995, IN PRESS NAPA B, V15 RAPPAPORT RA, 1967, PIGS ANCESTORS RITUA, V1, P1 RAPPAPORT RA, 1994, DIAGNOSING AM ANTHR, P235 SCUDDER T, 1989, ENVIRONMENT, V31, P4 SPONSEL LE, 1986, ANNU REV ANTHROPOL, V15, P67 SPONSEL LE, 1991, J NATIONAL RES COUNC, V23, P31 STEWARD JH, 1955, THEORY CULTURE CHANG, P30 VANWILLIGEN J, 1989, MAKING OUR RES USEFU, P370 VAYDA AP, 1968, INTRO CULTURAL ANTHR, P476 WULFF R, 1987, ANTHR PRAXIS TRANSLA, P272 NR 41 TC 0 J9 FUTURES BP 675 EP 680 PY 1995 PD JUL-AUG VL 27 IS 6 GA RZ749 UT ISI:A1995RZ74900006 ER PT J AU McKinnon, GA Webber, SL TI Climate change impacts and adaptation in Canada: Is the forest sector prepared? SO FORESTRY CHRONICLE LA English DT Editorial Material C1 NS Consultants Inc, Winnipeg, MB R3Y 1G4, Canada. Nat Resources Canada, Canadian Climate Impacts & Adapt Res Network, Forest Sector, No Forestry Ctr, Edmonton, AB T6H 3S5, Canada. RP McKinnon, GA, NS Consultants Inc, 83 Scurfield Blvd, Winnipeg, MB R3Y 1G4, Canada. NR 0 TC 0 J9 FOREST CHRON BP 653 EP 654 PY 2005 PD SEP-OCT VL 81 IS 5 GA 979VW UT ISI:000232974100023 ER PT J AU Molua, EL TI Climate variability, vulnerability and effectiveness of farm-level adaptation options: the challenges and implications for food security in Southwestern Cameroon SO ENVIRONMENT AND DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS LA English DT Article C1 Univ Gottingen, Dept Agr Econ, D-37073 Gottingen, Germany. RP Molua, EL, Univ Gottingen, Dept Agr Econ, Pl der Goettinger Sieben 5, D-37073 Gottingen, Germany. AB The risks associated with increasing climate variability pose technological and economic challenges to societies which are dependent on agriculture for their livelihood. In Southwestern Cameroon the natural variability of rainfall and temperatures contribute to variability in agricultural production and food insecurity. This paper explores the impact of climate variability in Southwestern Cameroon on food availability. It examines farm household's vulnerability to food availability relating to climate, and reviews the interplay of climate, agriculture, and prospects for food security in the region. An econometric function directly relates farm income and precipitation, in order to statistically estimate the significance of farm-level adaptation methods. The results reveal that precipitation during growing and adaptation methods through changes in soil tillage and crop rotation practices have significant effects on farm returns. An essential precondition for food security and overall agricultural development in Southwestern Cameroon is a dynamic agricultural sector brought about both by steady increase in agricultural production and by greater efforts in farmer support, to enable farm households to take advantage of the opportunities and to minimize the negative impacts of climate variation on agriculture. CR *CDIAC, 1990, ORNLCDIAC39 *ECA, 1989, CHALL AGR PROD FOOD, P65 *EIU, 1999, CAM COUNTR REP *FAO, 2000, CAM AGR *FAO, 2000, CAM CLIM GLOB INF EA *IPCC, 1990, 1 IPCC WATSON RT, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, V1, P1 *IPCC, 1997, SPEC REP IPCC WORK G *WHO, 1990, POT HLTH EFF CLIM CH ADAMS RM, 1990, NATURE, V345, P219 CHAMBERS RG, 1994, APPL PRODUCTION ANAL, P250 CLINE WR, 1991, ECON J, V101, P320 DOWNING TE, 1992, CLIMATE CHANGE VULNE EASTERLING WE, 1993, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V24, P23 GOLDFELD SM, 1965, J AM STAT ASSOC, V60, P539 HEADY EO, 1961, AGR PRODUCTION FUNCT HOPKINS JA, 1953, ELEMENTS FARM MANAGE HULME M, 1999, CLIMATE CHANGE SCENA JAGTAP SS, 1998, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V10, P59 KOUTSOYIANNIS A, 1977, THEORY ECONOMETRICS KRAUS EB, 1977, MON WEA REV, V105, P1009 LANDSEA CW, 1992, J CLIMATE, V5, P435 MCCALLA AF, 1999, AGR ECON, V20, P95 MENDELSOHN R, 1994, AM ECON REV, V84, P753 MOLUA EL, 1999, THESIS AGR U COPENHA NORDHAUS WD, 1991, ECON J, V101, P920 OZSABUNCUOGLU IH, 1998, AGR ECON, V18, P75 PARRY ML, 1990, CLIMATE CHANGE WORLD REILLY JM, 1994, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V4, P24 ROSENZWEIG C, 1993, CLIMATE CHANGE WORLD ROSENZWEIG C, 1994, NATURE, V367, P133 ROSENZWEIG MR, 1993, ECON J, V103, P56 SELEKA TB, 1999, AGR ECON, V20, P121 SEN AK, 1981, POVERTY FAMINES ESSA, V1, P1 TCHOUNGI R, 1996, STRUCTURAL ADJUSTMEN, P53 TOBEY J, 1992, J AGR RESOUR ECON, V17, P195 VALDES A, 1979, EC DESIGN SMALL FARM WINTERS P, 1999, GLOBAL ENV CHANGE AG, P239 WOLFE DW, 1995, P SUST DEV GLOB CLIM ZELLER M, 1999, C SOC PROT POV ORG S NR 40 TC 0 J9 ENVIRON DEV ECON BP 529 EP 545 PY 2002 PD JUL VL 7 GA 582NL UT ISI:000177358000007 ER PT J AU Hansen, TS Mertz, O TI Extinction or adaptation? Three decades of change in shifting cultivation in Sarawak, Malaysia SO LAND DEGRADATION & DEVELOPMENT LA English DT Article C1 Univ Copenhagen, Inst Geog, DK-1350 Copenhagen K, Denmark. RP Hansen, TS, Inst Local Govt Studies, Nyropsgade 37, DK-1602 Copenhagen V, Denmark. AB Shifting cultivation is commonly believed to be disappearing in Southeast Asia, but appears relatively persistent in some areas with alternative economic opportunities. This paper analyses how three decades of development have influenced both the decline and persistence of shifting cultivation in Sarawak, Malaysia. Changes in land use and demography are analysed in two Than shifting cultivation communities, which differ in access to markets, off-farm work, and in their proximity to large-scale land development. Although the Sarawak State Government's policies to limit shifting cultivation have not proven effective, introduction of compulsory school attendance, investment in infrastructure and associated access to markets and employment opportunities have gradually changed local livelihoods, now composed of subsistence and commercial fanning, land development and connections to local and international labour markets. Shifting cultivation of hill rice has persisted in both communities despite other economic opportunities and has been maintained for a range of reasons. However, increasing permanent migration of younger people and pressure on land from land development may gradually end shifting cultivation, particularly in more developed areas. Copyright (c) 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. CR *MIN LAND DEV, 1997, HDB NEW CONC DEV NAT ADAMS WM, 1997, GEOGR J 2, V163, P150 BOSERUP E, 1965, CONDITIONS AGR GROWT BROOKFIELD H, 1995, PLACE FOREST ENV SOC CRAMB RA, 1979, FARM PLAN PROPOSED B CRAMB RA, 1988, REV INDONESIAN MALAY, V22, P115 CRAMB RA, 1990, WORLD DEV, V18, P347 CRAMB RA, 1998, DEV SARAWAK HISTI CO, P1 FOLD N, LOCAL GLOBAL ENV DEV FOX J, 2000, ASIA PACIFIC ISSUES, V47, P1 HANSEN TS, 2003, IAHS PUBLICATION, V280, P175 HANSEN TS, 2005, SINGAPORE J TROP GEO, V26, P170 HOROWITZ LS, 1998, HUM ECOL, V26, P371 KECK A, 1994, WORLD BANK DISCUSSIO, V234, P1 KEDIT PM, 1993, IBAN BEJALAI LEIGH M, 2002, MAPPING PEOPLES SARA MERTZ O, 1997, DANISH J GEOGRAPHY, V97, P98 MERTZ O, 1999, DANISH J GEOGRAPHY, P133 MYERS N, 1992, ENVIRONMENTALIST, V12, P15 NGIDANG D, 2002, ASIA PACIFIC VIEWPOI, V43, P157 NIELSEN U, IN PRESS HUMAN ECOLO, V34 PADOCH C, 1998, HUM ECOL, V26, P3 PADOCH C, 2003, LOCAL LAND USE STRAT, V1, P79 RASUL G, 2003, LAND DEGRAD DEV, V14, P495 RIGG J, 1998, PROG HUM GEOG, V22, P497 RIGG J, 2001, MORE SOIL RURAL CHAN RODER W, 1997, MT RES DEV, V17, P1 RUDEL T, 1996, AMBIO, V25, P160 SODA R, 2001, GEOGRAPHICAL REV JAP, V74, P92 SUTLIVE VH, 1992, IBAN SARAWAK CHRONIC TAYLOR DM, 1994, GEOFORUM, V25, P351 THENG CS, 1993, 9 DEP AGR RES BRANCH WADLEY RL, 1997, THESIS ARIZONA STATE WADLEY RL, 2005, AGR SYST, V85, P289 WINDLE J, 1999, RURAL DEV SOCIAL SCI, P215 NR 35 TC 0 J9 LAND DEGRAD DEV BP 135 EP 148 PY 2006 PD MAR-APR VL 17 IS 2 GA 034LO UT ISI:000236930700003 ER PT J AU Palinkas, LA TI The psychology of isolated and confined environments - Understanding human behavior in Antarctica SO AMERICAN PSYCHOLOGIST LA English DT Article C1 Univ Calif San Diego, Dept Family & Prevent Med, La Jolla, CA 92093 USA. RP Palinkas, LA, Univ Calif San Diego, Dept Family & Prevent Med, 9500 Gilman Dr, La Jolla, CA 92093 USA. AB Psychosocial adaptation to isolated and confined environments exhibits 4 distinct characteristics. First, it is seasonal: Variations in mood are associated with the altered diurnal cycle and psychological segmentation of the mission. Second, it is situational: Concurrent measures of personality, interpersonal needs, and coping styles are better predictors of mood and performance than are predeployment measures. Third, it is social: Members of expeditions with low social coherence report significantly more depression, anxiety, and anger than individuals belonging to expeditions with high social coherence. Fourth, it is salutogenic: Depressed mood is inversely associated with the severity of the physical environment of the station, and the winter-over experience is associated with reduced subsequent rates of hospital admissions, suggesting positive benefits for individuals seeking challenging experiences. 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Univ E Anglia, Sch Environm Sci, Tyndall Ctr Climate Change Res, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. RP Paavola, J, Univ E Anglia, Ctr Social & Econ Res Global Environm, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. AB This article identifies social justice dilemmas associated with the necessity to adapt to climate change, examines how they are currently addressed by the climate change regime, and proposes solutions to overcome prevailing gaps and ambiguities. We argue that the key justice dilemmas of adaptation include responsibility for climate change impacts, the level and burden sharing of assistance to vulnerable countries for adaptation, distribution of assistance between recipient countries and adaptation measures, and fair participation in planning and making decisions on adaptation. We demonstrate how the climate change regime largely omits responsibility but makes a general commitment to assistance. However, the regime has so far failed to operationalise assistance and has made only minor progress towards eliminating obstacles for fair participation. We propose the adoption of four principles for fair adaptation in the climate change regime. These include avoiding dangerous climate change, forward-looking responsibility, putting the most vulnerable first and equal participation of all. We argue that a safe maximum standard of 400-500 ppm Of CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere and a carbon tax of $20-50 per carbon equivalent ton could provide the initial instruments for operationalising the principles. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. CR *US EN INF AG, 2004, INT CARB DIOX EMISS ADGER WN, 1999, WORLD DEV, V27, P249 ADGER WN, 2003, ECON GEOGR, V79, P387 ADGER WN, 2003, PROGR DEV STUDIES, V3, P179 ADGER WN, 2004, ENVIRON PLANN A, V36, P1711 ALLEN GR, 2003, ZOOL STUD, V42, P1 ALLEN MR, 2004, NATURE, V432, P551 ARLER F, 2001, ENVIRON VALUE, V10, P301 ATTFIELD R, 2005, ENV VALUES GLOBALISI, P38 AZAR C, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V47, P233 BAER P, IN PRESS FAIRNESS AD BAER P, 2000, SCIENCE, V289, P2287 BARRY B, 1999, FAIRNESS FUTURITY ES, P93 BELL DA, 1993, COMMUNITARIANISM ITS BOHLE HG, 1994, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V4, P37 BROMLEY D, 2004, ENVIRON RESOUR ECON, V28, P73 BROOKS N, 2005, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V15, P151 BURTON I, 2002, CLIM POLICY, V2, P145 CIRIACYWANTRUP SV, 1952, RESOURCE CONSERVATIO DESSAI S, 2003, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V13, P149 DESSAI S, 2004, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V64, P11 DHAINAUT JF, 2004, CRIT CARE, V8, P1 DRIESEN DM, 2003, EC DYNAMICS ENV LAW FANKHAUSER S, 1996, ENERG POLICY, V24, P665 FANKHAUSER S, 1999, ECOL ECON, V30, P67 FARMER MC, 1998, LAND ECON, V74, P287 FRASER N, 2001, THEOR CULT SOC, V18, P21 GOWDY JM, 2004, LAND ECON, V80, P239 GUPTA J, 2002, MANAGING EARTH LINAC, P129 GURANKO EN, 2003, FIN RISKS NAT DIS C HAYEK FA, 1976, LAW LEGISLATION LIBE HELM C, 2001, ENVIRON VALUE, V10, P5 HUQ S, IN PRESS FAIRNESS AD HUQ S, 2002, CLIM POLICY, V2, P243 JAMIESON D, 2001, CHANGING ATMOSPHERE, P287 KANDLIKAR M, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P529 KASPERSON RE, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE VULNE KING DA, 2004, SCIENCE, V303, P176 KLINENBERG E, 2002, HEAT WAVE SOCIAL AUT KOLM SC, 1996, MODERN THEORIES JUST KRASNER SD, 1982, INT ORGAN, V36, P185 LASH S, 2002, RECOGNITION DIFFEREN LEARY N, 1999, MITIGATION ADAPTATIO, V4, P307 LIND EA, 1988, SOCIAL PSYCHOL PROED MASTRANDREA MD, 2004, SCIENCE, V304, P571 MELKAS E, 2002, REV EUROPEAN COMMUNI, V11, P115 MICHELOZZI P, 2004, MMWR-MORBID MORTAL W, V53, P369 MULLER B, 2001, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V48, P273 MWANDOSYA MJ, 1999, SURVIVAL EMISSIONS P NEUMAYER E, 2000, ECOL ECON, V33, P185 NORTON BG, 2002, EC ETHICS ENV POLICY, P35 NOZICK R, 1974, ANARCHY STATE UTOPIA OBRIEN KL, 2004, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V14, P303 OBRIEN KL, 2000, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V10, P221 OBRIEN KL, 2003, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V93, P89 ONEILL BC, 2002, SCIENCE, V296, P1971 ONEILL J, 2001, ENVIRON PLANN C, V19, P483 PAAVOLA J, 2002, EC ETHICS ENV POLICY, P87 PAAVOLA J, 2002, FORUM DEV STUD, V29, P5 PAAVOLA J, 2005, ENV VALUES GLOBALISI, P143 PARRY ML, 1998, NATURE, V395, P741 PATERSON M, 2001, INT RELATIONS GLOBAL, P119 PIELKE RA, 1998, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V8, P159 RINGIUS L, 2002, INT ENV AGREEMENTS P, V2, P1 RISBEY JS, 1999, MITIGATION ADAPTATIO, V4, P137 ROSE A, 1998, ENVIRON RESOUR ECON, V12, P25 ROUGHGARDEN T, 1999, ENERG POLICY, V27, P415 SCHAR C, 2004, NATURE, V432, P559 SCHLOSBERG D, 1999, ENV JUSTICE NEW PLUR SCHRADERFRECHET.K, 2002, ENV JUSTICE CREATING SEN AK, 1992, INEQUALITY REEXAMINE SMIT B, 2003, CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPT, P9 SMITH B, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P223 SMITH JB, 1997, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V7, P251 SOYINKA W, 2004, 4 REITH LECT CLIMATE SPASH C, 2002, GREENHOUSE EC VALUE STOTT PA, 2004, NATURE, V432, P610 THOMAS CD, 2004, NATURE, V427, P145 TOL RSJ, 1998, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V8, P109 TOL RSJ, 2004, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V14, P259 TYLER TR, 1997, SOCIAL JUSTICE DIVER VERHEYEN R, 2002, RECIEL, V11, P129 WALZER M, 1983, SPHERES JUSTICE DEFE WISNER B, 2004, RISK NATURAL HAZARDS YOHE GW, 2002, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V12, P25 YOHE GW, 2004, SCIENCE, V306, P416 YOUNG HP, 1994, EQUITY THEORY PRACTI YOUNG IM, 2000, INCLUSION DEMOCRACY YOUNG OR, 1994, INT GOVERNANCE PROTE NR 89 TC 3 J9 ECOL ECON BP 594 EP 609 PY 2006 PD APR 1 VL 56 IS 4 GA 028SO UT ISI:000236509300011 ER PT J AU Verge, XPC De Kimpe, C Desjardins, RL TI Agricultural production, greenhouse gas emissions and mitigation potential SO AGRICULTURAL AND FOREST METEOROLOGY LA English DT Article C1 Agr & Agri Food Canada, Ottawa, ON K1A 0C6, Canada. Agr & Agri Food Canada, Ottawa, ON K1H 5T6, Canada. RP Desjardins, RL, Agr & Agri Food Canada, KW Neatby Bldg,960 Carling Ave, Ottawa, ON K1A 0C6, Canada. AB During the next three decades, Asia will remain the largest food consumer (increasing from 40 to 55% of the global consumption between 2000 and 2015) and the largest source of greenhouse gas (GHG) from agriculture (about 50% of the total emissions). The growth of food demand in Africa and South America will cause substantial increase in GHG emissions by the agri-food sector, unless improved management systems are adopted. The higher food consumption rate (kJ person(-1) day(-1)) around the world is primarily a result of improved crop production and higher percentage of animal products in diet. The latter will, however, result in more CH4 emissions. The growing use of N fertilizers is also a concern. The part not taken up by crops (more than 50%) is either lost through leaching or released to the atmosphere as N gases including nitrous oxide. Between 2000 and 2030, the total GHG emissions are expected to increase by about 50%, with further impact on weather and climate. Mitigation techniques such as improved feed quality for a better digestibility, improved manure management, greater N use efficiency, better water management of rice paddies and/or by increasing the role of agro-forestry in agriculture, have to be considered in order to minimize the impact of agriculture on climate. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. CR *CGIAR, 2001, FUT HARV *EPA, 2001, NONCO2 GREENH GAS DE, P138 *EPA, 2002, EM PROJ NONCO2 GREEN, P73 *FAO IPGRI, 2003, CROP TRUST CONS PLAN *FAO, 1994, CHER EARTH SOIL MAN, P33 *FAO, 2000, 140 FAO *FAO, 2001, P FAO C *FAO, 2003, WORLD AGR 2015 2030 *FAO, 2004, EC SOC DEP AGR DAT F *UNFCCC, 2002, CONL GREENH GAS INV *USDA, 1998, 9801 USDA *USDA, 2004, 0407 USDA *WMO, 2003, 957 WMO *WORLD BANK, 2001, GLOB EC PROSP DEV CO *WORLD RES I, 2004, EARTHTR POP HLTH HUM COHEN SJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, P735 COLE CV, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, P745 COLE CV, 1997, NUTR CYCL AGROECOSYS, V49, P221 DYER JA, 2003, SUSTAIN AGR, V20, P59 GARG A, 2004, ATMOS ENVIRON, V38, P1965 HACIA H, 1991, HIST CLIMATOLOGY SER, V64 HILHORST MA, 2001, 014070 ASAE HOUGHTON JT, 1996, GUIDELINES NATL GREE HUTCHINSON JJ, 2007, AGR METEOROL, V142, P228 LASSEY KR, 2007, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V142, P120 LENG, 1991, 400191004 USEPA OFF LINDAU CW, 1993, BIOL FERT SOILS, V15, P174 MARLAND G, 2003, CLIM POLICY, V3, P149 MOSIER AR, 1998, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V40, P39 MOSIER AR, 1998, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V40, P7 MRAE T, 2000, ENV SUSTAINABILITY C, P7 OLENSEN JE, 2002, EUR J AGRON, V16, P239 PALM C, 2004, ENV DEV SUSTAINABILI, V6, P145 PAUSTIAN KH, 1997, SOIL USE MANAGE S, V13, P230 PENMAN J, 2000, GOOD PRACTICE GUIDAN PIMENTEL D, 1996, SCI TOTAL ENVIRON S1, V188, S86 RADDATZ RL, 2007, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V142, P186 SASS RL, 1992, GLOBAL BIOGEOCHEM CY, V6, P249 SIVAKUMAR MVK, 2007, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V142, P143 SIX J, 2004, GLOBAL CHANGE BIOL, V10, P155 SMIL V, 1997, SCI AM, V277, P58 VANDENBYGAART AJ, 2004, GLOBAL CHANGE BIOL, V10, P983 WATSON RT, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, V1, P1 YAGI K, 1990, SOIL SCI PLANT NUTR, V36, P599 NR 44 TC 2 J9 AGR FOREST METEOROL BP 255 EP 269 PY 2007 PD FEB 12 VL 142 IS 2-4 GA 138SG UT ISI:000244382000015 ER PT J AU Llasat, MD TI The vulnerability in Catalonia and the social perception SO HOUILLE BLANCHE-REVUE INTERNATIONALE DE L EAU LA French DT Article C1 Univ Barcelona, Dept Astron & Meteorol, GAMA, E-08028 Barcelona, Spain. RP Llasat, MD, Univ Barcelona, Dept Astron & Meteorol, GAMA, Av Diagonal 647, E-08028 Barcelona, Spain. AB The present contribution tries to show some features related with the vulnerability in Catalonia in flood events. This vulnerability is associated to changes in the use of soil : the increasing value of those thinks that can be affected by the flood and with the behaviour of the population. Some considerations about the role of the press are also included. Besides this, the floods evolution in some little catchments is a clear example of those changes. CR *CONS COMP SEG, 2003, EST RIESG EXTR SER MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 BARRIENDOS M, 2003, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V61, P191 BARRIENDOS M, 2003, NAT HAZARD EARTH SYS, V3, P583 BARRIENDOS M, 2003, PALEOFLOODS HIST DAT, P87 BERGA L, 1995, AGUA CATALUNYA, P237 DOLZ J, 1993, US SPAN JOINT WORKSH HUET P, 2003, RETOUR EXPERIENCE CR LLASAT MC, IN PRESS J HIDROLOGY LLASAT MC, 1987, PUBLICACIONS U BARCE, V40 LLASAT MC, 2003, PALEOFLOODS HIST DAT, P275 LLASAT MC, 2004, IN PRESS HOUILLE BLA, V6 LLASAT MC, 2004, NAT HAZARDS, V31, P613 LLASAT MC, 2004, PUBLICATION INTERNE LLASAT MC, 2004, REV AFICIONADO METEO, V20 RAMIS C, 1995, SURV GEOPHYS, V16, P141 NR 16 TC 0 J9 HOUILLE BLANCHE BP 71 EP 75 PY 2004 IS 6 GA 884JY UT ISI:000226082200008 ER PT J AU Kottak, CP TI The new ecological anthropology SO AMERICAN ANTHROPOLOGIST LA English DT Article C1 Univ Michigan, Dept Anthropol, Ann Arbor, MI 48109 USA. RP Kottak, CP, Univ Michigan, Dept Anthropol, Ann Arbor, MI 48109 USA. AB Older ecologies have been remiss in the narrowness of their spatial and temporal horizons, their functionalist assumptions, and their apolitical character. Suspending functionalist assumptions and an emphasis upon (homeo)stasis, "the new ecological anthropology" is located at the intersection of global, national, regional, and local systems, studying the outcome of the interaction of multiple levels and multiple factors. It blends theoretical and empirical research with applied, policy-directed, and critical work in what Rappaport called an "engaged" anthropology; and it is otherwise attuned to the political aspects and implications of ecological processes. Carefully laying out a critique of previous ecologies by way of announcing newer approaches, the article insists on the need to recognize the importance of culture mediations in ecological processes rather than treating culture as epiphenomenal and as a mere adaptive tool. It closes with a discussion of the methodologies appropriate to the new ecological anthropology. CR AHMED AS, 1992, POSTMODERNIS ISLAM P BARBOUR I, 1973, W MAN ENV ETHICS ATT BARTH F, 1958, AM ANTHROPOL, V60, P107 BARTH F, 1969, ETHNIC GROUPS BOUNDA BRAMWELL A, 1989, ECOLOGY 20 CENTURY H BRYANT B, 1991, ENV RACISM ISSUES DI COMAROFF JL, 1982, J SO AFRICAN STUDIES, V8, P143 COSTA ACG, 1995, NAPA B, V15, P71 DOUGLAS M, 1982, RISK CULTURE ESSAY S EPSTEIN TS, 1978, LONG TERM FIELD RES, P209 FRIEDMAN J, 1974, MAN, V9, P444 GEZON LL, 1997, ETHNOLOGY, V36, P85 GREAVES TC, 1995, GEN ANTHR, V1, P3 GREEN GM, 1990, SCIENCE, V248, P212 GREENE B, 1994, LESBIAN GAY PSYCHOL, V1, P1 HARRIS M, 1966, CURR ANTHROPOL, V7, P51 HARRIS M, 1974, COWS PIGS WARS WITCH KEMPTON W, 1995, ENV VALUES AM CULTUR KORTEN DC, 1980, PUBLIC ADMIN REV, V40, P480 KOTTAK C, 1994, ASSESSING CULTURAL A, P396 KOTTAK CP, 1980, PAST PRESENT HIST EC KOTTAK CP, 1990, AM ANTHROPOL, V92, P723 KOTTAK CP, 1993, HUM ORGAN, V52, P335 KOTTAK CP, 1994, DEFORESTATION BIODIV KOTTAK CP, 1999, ASSAULT PARADISE SOC MINTZ S, 1985, SWEETNESS POWER POLI NASH J, 1981, ANNU REV ANTHROPOL, V10, P393 PEPPER D, 1984, ROOTS MODERN ENV RAPPAPORT RA, 1967, PIGS ANCESTORS RITUA, V1, P1 RAPPAPORT RA, 1971, ANNU REV ECOL SYST, V2, P23 RAPPAPORT RA, 1971, MAN CULTURE SOC, P237 RAPPAPORT RA, 1994, DIAGNOSING AM ANTHR, P235 ROMER AS, 1960, MAN VERTEBRATES, V1 ROSEBERRY W, 1988, ANNU REV ANTHROPOL, V17, P161 SCHNEIDER J, 1977, PEASANT STUDIES, V6, P20 SPONSEL LE, 1994, TROPICAL DEFORESTATI STEWARD JH, 1950, AREA RES THEORY PRAC STEWARD JH, 1955, THEORY CULTURE CHANG STEWARD JH, 1956, PEOPLE PUERTO RICO SUSSMAN RW, 1994, HUM ECOL, V22, P333 WALLERSTEIN I, 1974, MODERN WORLD SYSTEM WOLF ER, 1982, EUROPE PEOPLE HIST NR 42 TC 22 J9 AMER ANTHROPOL BP 23 EP 35 PY 1999 PD MAR VL 101 IS 1 GA 214UT UT ISI:000081346500003 ER PT J AU Lindner, M TI Developing adaptive forest management strategies to cope with climate change SO TREE PHYSIOLOGY LA English DT Article C1 Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res, D-14412 Potsdam, Germany. RP Lindner, M, Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res, POB 60 12 03, D-14412 Potsdam, Germany. AB Numerous investigations have indicated that projected climate change will impact strongly on forest growth and composition. To adapt managed forests to changing environmental conditions it may be necessary to modify traditional forest management strategies. An extended version of a forest gap model was applied to a managed forest district in northeastern Germany. The model was initialized with forest inventory data and run using routines devised to simulate three management scenarios: (1) maximized timber production, (2) climatically well-adapted forest composition, and (3) maximized tree species diversity. The strategies were compared with a baseline scenario of traditional management without any response to climate change. The comparisons were based on simulated wood production and species composition after 110 years of development. The results underline the important influence that management strategies have on forest growth. Forest management may adopt a variety of strategies to respond to the expected changes in climate. Process-oriented forest gap models can aid in the assessment of these strategies. CR BUGMANN H, 1994, ECOLOGY MOUNTAINOUS BUGMANN H, 1997, CLIMATE RES, V8, P35 BUGMANN H, 1998, FOREST ECOL MANAG, V103, P247 BUGMANN HKM, 1996, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V34, P289 DESANKER PV, 1994, FOREST ECOL MANAG, V69, P269 DITTMAR O, 1986, IFE BERICHTE FORSCHU, V4 GEROLD D, 1990, THESIS TU DRESDEN KATTENBERG A, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, P285 KELLOMAKI S, 1993, FOREST ECOL MANAG, V59, P237 KIRSCHBAUM MUF, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, P57 KRAUSCH HD, 1993, 90051 FB UMW LASCH P, 1998, IMPACTS CLIMATE VARI, P273 LASCH P, 1999, ENVIRON MODEL ASSESS, V4, P273 LEEMANS R, 1991, ECOL MODEL, V53, P247 LEEMANS R, 1992, FOREST ECOL MANAG, V48, P305 LEMBCKE G, 1975, DDR KIEFERN ERTRAGST LINDNER M, 1997, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V84, P123 LINDNER M, 1997, FOREST ECOL MANAG, V95, P183 LINDNER M, 1998, 46 PIK U POTSD POTSD LINDNER M, 1999, FORSTWISS CENTRALBL, V118, P1 MELILLO JM, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, P447 MOHREN GMJ, 1997, IMPACTS GLOBAL CHANG NAGEL J, 1995, ALLG FORST JAGDZTG, V166, P185 NAGEL J, 1997, BWIN 2 5 WALDWACHSTU PASTOR J, 1988, NATURE, V334, P55 PRENTICE IC, 1990, J ECOL, V78, P340 PRENTICE IC, 1993, ECOL MODEL, V65, P51 PRICE DT, 1996, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V34, P179 REILLY JM, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, P427 ROSENBERG NJ, 1992, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V21, P385 SHUGART HH, 1996, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V34, P131 SOLOMON AM, 1986, OECOLOGIA, V68, P567 SYKES MT, 1996, J BIOGEOGR, V23, P203 THOMASIUS H, 1991, FORSTWISS CENTRALBL, V110, P305 WEIMANN HJ, 1980, FORSTARCHIV, V51, P5 WENK G, 1996, EFFECTS ENV FACTORS, P283 WERNER PC, 1997, CLIMATE RES, V8, P171 NR 37 TC 24 J9 TREE PHYSIOL BP 299 EP 307 PY 2000 PD MAR VL 20 IS 5-6 GA 299XN UT ISI:000086223900002 ER PT J AU Ohlsson, L TI Water conflicts and social resource scarcity SO PHYSICS AND CHEMISTRY OF THE EARTH PART B-HYDROLOGY OCEANS AND ATMOSPHERE LA English DT Article C1 Univ Orebro, Dept Social Sci, SE-70367 Orebro, Sweden. RP Ohlsson, L, Univ Orebro, Dept Social Sci, SE-70367 Orebro, Sweden. AB Countering the widely held opinion that water scarcity entails prime risks of international conflicts over shared water resources, it is argued that the risk of conflicts within countries in fact is larger, and that the risk of international conflict is derived from the necessity to avoid what is defined as second-order conflicts within countries, caused not by water scarcity itself, but by the institutional change required to adapt to water scarcity. To illustrate this, the most pernicious effect of social resource scarcity, a new Social Resource Water Stress/Scarcity Index (SWSI) is developed, built on a combination of traditional hydrological indices and the UNDP Human Development Index as the most readily available proxy for social adaptive capacity. Calculations are made for 159 countries, 1995 and with projections to 2025. The study demonstrates that the index captures the social impacts of water scarcity more accurately than earlier indices. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. CR BJORKLUND G, 1997, SIWI 1997, P37 FALKENMARK M, 1989, AMBIO, V18, P112 FALKENMARK M, 1993, AMBIO, V22, P427 GARDNEROUTLAW T, 1997, SUSTAINING WATER EAS HAFTENDORN H, 1999, INT STUD ASS 40 ANN LUNDQVIST J, 1997, SUSTAINING OUR WATER OHLSSON L, 1998, WATER SOCIAL RESOURC OHLSSON L, 1999, THESIS U GOTEBORG POSTEL S, 1992, LAST OASIS FACING WA RASKINS P, 1997, WATER FUTURES ASSESS SAVENIJE HHG, 1999, FAO EM C WAT FOOD SU WINPENNY JT, 1999, FAO EM C WAT FOOD SU NR 12 TC 1 J9 PHYS CHEM EARTH P B-HYDROL OC BP 213 EP 220 PY 2000 VL 25 IS 3 GA 305KT UT ISI:000086539500005 ER PT J AU Minguez, MI Ruiz-Ramos, M Diaz-Ambrona, CH Quemada, M TI Productivity in agricultural systems under climate change scenarios. Evaluation and adaptation SO JOURNAL DE PHYSIQUE IV LA English DT Article C1 Univ Politecn Madrid, Depto Prod Vegetal Fitotecn, Escuela Tecn Super Ingn Agron, E-28040 Madrid, Spain. RP Minguez, MI, Univ Politecn Madrid, Depto Prod Vegetal Fitotecn, Escuela Tecn Super Ingn Agron, Ciudad Univ, E-28040 Madrid, Spain. AB The direct (CO2 increase) and indirect (temperature increase and change in rainfall) components of climate change will have different affects on the productivity of the various agricultural regions of the world that can, as is currently occurring. be enhanced or diminished by economic. social. and political forces. The Iberian Peninsula is presented as a case study to describe the use of crop simulation models to assess impacts and uncertainties of projected climate change on agricultural productivity. Possible short and long-term adaptive options are also discussed. CR *IPCC, 2000, SPECIAL REPORT EMISS *IPCC, 2001, CLIM CHANG *IPCC, 2001, CONTR WORK GROUP 1 3 *PRUDENCE, UNPUB PRED UNC DESCR *PRUDENCE, 2002, PRED UNC DESCR EUR C ARNTHOR JS, 1996, CARBON DIOXIDE TERRE, P317 ARNTHOR JS, 2001, FIELD CROPS RES, V73, P1 CASTRO M, 1993, MATH CLIMATE ENV, P230 CASTRO M, 1995, GLOBAL CHANGE MEDITE, P1 CHRISTENSEN JH, 1996, 964 HIRHAM DMI CHRISTENSEN JH, 2001, 0115 DMI HIRHAM DEQUE M, 1998, CLIM DYNAM, V14, P173 DIAZAMBRONA CH, 1999, APLICACION MODELOS S DOSCHER R, 2002, BOREAL ENVIRON RES, V7, P183 GABRIELLE B, 2002, AGRONOMIE, V22, P119 GIORGI F, 1993, MON WEATHER REV, V121, P2794 GIORGI F, 1993, MON WEATHER REV, V121, P2814 GUERENA A, 2001, AGRON J, V93, P237 IGLESIAS A, 1995, CLIMATE CHANGE AGR A, P259 JACOB D, 2001, METEOROL ATMOS PHYS, V77, P61 JONES CA, 1986, CERES MAIZE SIMULATI JONES RG, 1995, Q J ROY METEOR SOC, V121, P1413 LUTHI D, 1996, THEOR APPL CLIMATOL, V53, P185 MEARNS LO, 2003, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V60, P1 MEARNS LO, 2003, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V60, P7 MINGUEZ MI, 1996, DIACHRONIC CLIMATIC, P302 MINGUEZ MI, 1998, IMPACTO CONSUMO AGUA PARRY ML, 2000, CHANGING CLIMATE EUR POPE VD, 2000, CLIM DYNAM, V16, P123 QUEMADA M, 2001, 2 INT S MOD CROPP SY RITCHIE JT, 1985, ARS WHEAT YIELD PROJ, P159 RODRIGUEZ D, 2001, NEW PHYTOL, V150, P337 ROSENZWEIG C, 1998, CLIMATE CHANGE GLOBA STEPPELER J, 2003, METEOROL ATMOS PHYS, V82, P75 STOCKLE CO, 1994, CROPPING SYSTEMS SIM STOCKLE CO, 2003, EUR J AGRON, V18, P289 TIEDTKE M, 1989, MON WEATHER REV, V117, P1779 TRUEBA C, 2000, INDICES VULNERABILID TSUJI GY, 1994, DECISION SUPPORT SYS TUBIELLO FN, 2002, EUR J AGRON, V18, P57 VIDALE PL, 2003, J GEOPHYS RES-ATMOS, V108 NR 41 TC 0 J9 J PHYS IV BP 269 EP 281 PY 2004 PD DEC VL 121 GA 892HD UT ISI:000226640000020 ER PT J AU Subak, S TI Climate change adaptation in the UK water industry: Managers' perceptions of past variability and future scenarios SO WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article C1 Univ E Anglia, CSERGE, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. RP Subak, S, Univ E Anglia, CSERGE, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. AB In this article, the relationship between U.K. water companies' perceptions of past climatic extremes and their effect on resilience to future climatic change is explored. Perceptions and activities related to past and future dry periods was investigated through interviews with managers at the ten major English and Welsh water supply/sewerage companies, and several smaller, water-only companies. Several of the companies report that they have observed a trend towards drier summers in their regions, and a number of companies say that they have observed a change towards more intensive rainfall of shorter duration. Recent supply measures in a number of regions have been aimed at improving storage and distribution related to the perceived change in rainfall intensity. A new requirement to incorporate regional climate change scenarios in future supply assumptions appears to have had little impact on planning in the region to date. Many water resource planners believe that the scenarios generated are too aggregated and do not encourage a precautionary approach to planning. Some managers believe that records of historical drought conditions, such as experienced in 1933/1934 or 1995/1996, as worst-case scenarios provide a better basis for planning. CR 1997, WARMER CLIMATE INSIG, P5 *CLIM RES UN, 1999, ENGL WAL PREC *DOE, 1992, US WAT WIS CONS PAP *DOE, 1996, WAT RES SUPPL AG ACT *ENV AG UK WIR, 1997, 97CL041 ENV AG UK AT *NAT WAT COUNC DEP, 1980, 26 NAT WAT COUNC DEP *OFWAT, 1997, 1996 1997 REP LEAK W *OFWAT, 1998, SUPPL DEM BAL SUBM R *OFWAT, 1999, FIN DET FUT WAT SEW *OFWAT, 1999, REP LEAK WAT EFF *PARL OFF SCI TECH, 1993, DEAL DROUGHT ENV TEC HAUGHTON G, 1998, T I BRIT GEOGR, V23, P419 HERRINGTON PR, 1998, J CHART INST WATER E, V12, P139 HULME M, 1997, EC IMPACTS HOT SUMME, P5 HULME M, 1998, 1 UKCIP CLIM RES UN JONES PD, 1997, INT J CLIMATOL, V17, P427 MARSH TJ, 1996, P I CIVIL ENG-WATER, V118, P189 PALUTIKOF JP, 1999, INDICATORS CLIMATE C, P44 SMITH EJ, 1997, J CHART INST WATER E, V11, P8 WAUGHRAY D, 1997, EC IMPACTS HOT SUMME, P57 NR 20 TC 3 J9 WATER RESOUR MANAG BP 137 EP 156 PY 2000 PD APR VL 14 IS 2 GA 351HF UT ISI:000089151200004 ER PT J AU Howarth, RB TI Discounting and uncertainty in climate change policy analysis SO LAND ECONOMICS LA English DT Article C1 Dartmouth Coll, Environm Studies Program, Hanover, NH 03755 USA. RP Howarth, RB, Dartmouth Coll, Environm Studies Program, Hanover, NH 03755 USA. AB Economic studies of climate change commonly discount the future at a rate equal to the long-run return on corporate stocks. Stock market returns, however, are dominated by a risk premium, while climate change mitigation measures would reduce important risks to future welfare. Drawing on the theory of investment behavior under uncertainty, this paper argues that the benefits of climate stabilization policies should be discounted at a rate equal to the annual return on risk-free financial assets, which attains an empirical value between 0 and 2.6%. In addition, expected benefits must be adjusted to account for the value of risk abatement. CR *IBB ASS, 2001, STOCKS BONDS BILLS I *INT WORK GROUP, 2000, SCEN CLEAN EN FUT *IPCC, 1996, CLIM CHANG 1995 EC S MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 ARROW KJ, 1970, AM ECON REV, V60, P364 ARROW KJ, 1970, PUBLIC INVESTMENT RA BLANCHARD OJ, 1989, LECT MACROECONOMICS BROOME J, 1992, COUNTING COST GLOBAL BROWN CL, 1998, FISH DIS DISORDERS, V2, P1 BURMAN LE, 1998, NATL TAX J, V51, P637 CLINE WR, 1992, EC GLOBAL WARMING COCHRAN JH, 2001, ASSET PRICING GERLAGH R, 2001, J PUBLIC ECON, V79, P315 HOWARTH RB, 1995, HDB ENV EC, P111 HOWARTH RB, 1998, SCAND J ECON, V100, P575 KOCHERLAKOTA NR, 1996, J ECON LIT, V34, P42 KOLB JA, 1990, J POLICY ANAL MANAG, V9, P381 KOLSTAD CD, 1996, J ENVIRON ECON MANAG, V31, P1 LAITNER JA, 2001, SOC BEHAV CLIMATE MI, P1 LIND RC, 1982, DISCOUNTING TIME RIS LUCAS RE, 1978, ECONOMETRICA, V46, P1429 MANNE A, 1995, ENERG POLICY, V23, P17 MANNE AS, 1995, ENERG POLICY, V23, P391 MEHRA R, 1985, J MONETARY ECON, V15, P145 NEWELL R, 2001, DISCOUNTING BENEFITS NORDHAUS WD, 1994, AM SCI, V82, P45 NORDHAUS WD, 1994, MANAGING GLOBAL COMM RAMSEY FP, 1928, ECON J, V38, P543 SAMUELSON P, 1969, REV ECON STAT, V51, P239 SANDMO A, 1972, INT ECON REV, V13, P287 SHACKLETON R, 1996, REDUCING GLOBAL CARB STARRETT DA, 1988, FDN PUBLIC EC TOL RSJ, 2003, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V56, P257 WEYANT JP, 1999, COSTS KYOTO PROTOCOL, P1 NR 34 TC 0 J9 LAND ECON BP 369 EP 381 PY 2003 PD AUG VL 79 IS 3 GA 704FM UT ISI:000184328300005 ER PT J AU Baron, JS Poff, NL Angermeier, PL Dahm, CN Gleick, PH Hairston, NG Jackson, RB Johnston, CA Richter, BD Steinman, AD TI Meeting ecological and societal needs for freshwater SO ECOLOGICAL APPLICATIONS LA English DT Review C1 Colorado State Univ, Nat Resource Ecol Lab, US Geol Survey, Ft Collins, CO 80523 USA. Colorado State Univ, Dept Biol, Ft Collins, CO 80523 USA. Virginia Polytech Inst & State Univ, Virginia Cooperat Fish & Wildlife Res Unit, US Geol Survey, Blacksburg, VA 24061 USA. Univ New Mexico, Dept Biol, Albuquerque, NM 87131 USA. Pacific Inst Studies Dev Environm & Secur, Oakland, CA 94612 USA. Cornell Univ, Ecol & Systemat Sect, Ithaca, NY 14853 USA. Duke Univ, Dept Biol, Durham, NC 27708 USA. Duke Univ, Nicholas Sch Environm, Durham, NC 27708 USA. Natl Sci Fdn, Div Environm Biol, Arlington, VA 22230 USA. Nature Conservancy, Charlottesville, VA 22901 USA. S Florida Water Management Dist, W Palm Beach, FL 33416 USA. RP Baron, JS, Colorado State Univ, Nat Resource Ecol Lab, US Geol Survey, Ft Collins, CO 80523 USA. AB Human society has used freshwater from rivers, lakes, groundwater,, and wetlands for many different urban, agricultural, and industrial activities, but in doing so has overlooked its value in supporting ecosystems. Freshwater is vital to human life and societal well-being, and thus its utilization for consumption, irrigation, and transport has long taken precedence over other commodities and services provided by freshwater ecosystems. However, there is growing recognition that functionally intact and biologically complex aquatic ecosystems provide many economically valuable services and long-term benefits to society. The short-term benefits include ecosystem goods and services, such as food supply, flood control, purification of human and industrial wastes, and habitat for plant and animal life-and these are costly, if, not impossible, to replace. Long-term benefits include the sustained provision of those goods and services, as well as the adaptive capacity of aquatic ecosystems to respond to future environmental alterations, such as climate change. Thus, maintenance of the processes and properties that support freshwater ecosystem integrity should be included in debates over sustainable water resource allocation. The purpose of this report is to explain how the integrity of freshwater ecosystems depends upon adequate quantity, quality, timing, and temporal variability of water flow. Defining these requirements in a comprehensive but general manner provides a better foundation for their inclusion in current and future debates about allocation of water resources. In this way the needs of freshwater ecosystems can be legitimately recognized and addressed. We also recommend ways in which freshwater ecosystems can be protected, maintained, and restored. Freshwater ecosystem structure and function are tightly linked to the watershed or catchment of which they are a part. Because riverine networks, lakes, wetlands, and their connecting groundwaters, are literally the "sinks" into 'Which landscapes drain, they are greatly influenced by terrestrial processes, including many human uses or modifications of land and water. Freshwater ecosystems, whether lakes, wetlands, or rivers, have specific requirements in terms of quantity, quality, and seasonality of their water supplies. Sustainability normally requires these systems to fluctuate within a natural range of variation. Flow regime, sediment and organic matter inputs, thermal and light characteristics, chemical and nutrient characteristics, and biotic assemblages are fundamental defining attributes of freshwater ecosystems. These attributes impart relatively unique characteristics of productivity and biodiversity to each ecosystem. The natural range of variation in each of these attributes is critical to maintaining the integrity and dynamic potential of aquatic ecosystems; therefore, management should allow for dynamic change. Piecemeal approaches cannot solve the problems confronting freshwater ecosystems. Scientific definitions of the requirements to protect and maintain aquatic ecosystems are necessary but insufficient for establishing the appropriate distribution between societal and ecosystem water needs. For scientific knowledge to be implemented science must be connected to a political agenda for sustainable development. We offer these recommendations as. a beginning to redress how water is viewed and managed in the United States: (1) Frame national and regional water management policies to explicitly incorporate freshwater ecosystem needs, particularly those related to naturally variable flow regimes and to the linking of water quality with water quantity; (2) Define water resources to include watersheds, so that freshwaters are viewed within a landscape, or systems context; (3) Increase communication and education across disciplines, especially among engineers, hydrologists, economists, and ecologists to facilitate an integrated view of freshwater resources; (4) Increase restoration efforts, using well-grounded ecological principles as guidelines; (5) Maintain and protect the remaining freshwater ecosystems that have high integrity; and (6) Recognize the dependence of human society on naturally functioning ecosystems. 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An editorial comment SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 Carnegie Mellon Univ, Pittsburgh, PA 15213 USA. RP Kandlikar, M, Carnegie Mellon Univ, 129 Baker Hall, Pittsburgh, PA 15213 USA. CR WATSON RT, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, V1, P1 BOWLER I, 1993, GEOGRAPHY AGR DEV MA CURRAN W, 1996, OUTLOOK 97, V2, P53 DIAMOND J, 1997, GUN GERMS STEEL FATE FRANK BR, 1995, AGR SYST, V47, P291 FRANK BR, 1995, AGR SYST, V47, P323 GAUTAM A, 1993, UNPUB DEMAND DROUGHT GRAETZ D, 1997, 971 CSIRO EARTH OBS, P136 GUPTA, 1998, POSTCOLONIAL DEV AGR, P448 JACOBSEN B, 1994, P 38 EAAE SEM EUR AS, P203 KANDLIKAR M, 1999, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V9, P119 MENDELSOHN R, 1994, AM ECON REV, V84, P753 MENDELSOHN R, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P583 MEYER WB, 1998, HUMAN CHOICE CLIMATE, P218 MORGAN MG, 1999, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V41, P271 PARTHASARATHY G, 1998, ECON POLIT WEEKLY, V33, P720 RISBEY JS, 1999, MITIGATION ADAPTATIO, V4, P137 SCHNEIDER SH, 1997, ENVIRON MODEL ASSESS, V2, P229 SHUKLA PR, 1996, AMBIO, V25, P240 STEWART, 1997, EC VALUE WEATHER CLI, P183 VISVANATHAN S, 1997, ESSAYS SCI TECHNOLOG, P249 WEBER E, 1994, FARMERS DECISION MAK NR 22 TC 2 J9 CLIMATIC CHANGE BP 529 EP 539 PY 2000 PD JUN VL 45 IS 3-4 GA 324XH UT ISI:000087646800010 ER PT J AU Vago, K Dobo, E Singh, MK TI Predicting the biogeochemical phenomenon of drought and climate variability SO CEREAL RESEARCH COMMUNICATIONS LA English DT Article C1 Szent Istvan Univ, Dept Farm Management, Godollo, Hungary. Szent Istvan Univ, Inst Econ, Godollo, Hungary. Szent Istvan Univ, Fac Agr & Environm Sci, Godollo, Hungary. RP Vago, K, Szent Istvan Univ, Dept Farm Management, Godollo, Hungary. CR *NAT ASS SYNTH TEA, 2000, CLIM CHANG IMP US PO BALOGH J, 2002, ACTA BIOL SZEGEDIENS, V46, P221 CAMPBELL BD, 2000, AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON, V82, P39 CHANGNON SA, 1987, 16487 ILL STAT WAT S FEKETE G, 1988, VEGETATIO, V77, P33 GLEICK PH, 2000, WATER POTENTIAL CONS KADAR I, 2004, AGROKEMIA TALAJTAN, V53 MAROTI I, 1984, J PLANT PHYSIOL, V116, P1 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 MORVAY K, 2005, EKON CAS, V53, P3 NAGY Z, 1993, PHOTOSYNTHETICA, V28, P351 NAGY Z, 1995, J PLANT PHYSL, V145, P539 SASS L, 1996, PHOTOSYNTH RES, V48, P205 TANACS L, 2005, CEREAL RES COMMUN, V33 TUBA Z, 1994, J PLANT PHYSIOL, V144, P661 TUBA Z, 1996, J PLANT PHYSIOL, V148, P356 WATSON RT, 1998, REGIONAL IMPACTS CLI, V1, P1 WILHITE DA, 1987, PLANNING DROUGHT RED, P11 NR 18 TC 0 J9 CEREAL RES COMMUN BP 93 EP 96 PY 2006 VL 34 IS 1 GA 039XC UT ISI:000237340500024 ER PT J AU Ziervogel, G TI Targeting seasonal climate forecasts for integration into household level decisions: the case of smallholder farmers in Lesotho SO GEOGRAPHICAL JOURNAL LA English DT Article C1 Univ Cape Town, Dept Environm & Geog Sci, ZA-7925 Cape Town, South Africa. Stockholm Environm Inst Oxford, Oxford OX1 1QT, England. RP Ziervogel, G, Stockholm Environm Inst Oxford, Oxford OX1 1QT, England. AB Seasonal climate forecasts have been promoted as a means to increase the resilience of marginal groups in Africa. The manifestations of this are still to be seen. This paper argues that successful dissemination and adoption of the forecast requires an in-depth profile of the characteristics and needs of user groups. The case study of a mountainous village in southern Lesotho is used to highlight the decisions which one group of marginal users-smallholder farmers-might make in response to the forecast. A participatory role-play exercise explores what information households presently receive and how new climate forecast information could be integrated into seasonal decision making. Results show that there are a number of low-input options available to these farmers for responding to the forecast. Adoption, however, is going to require repeated exposure to the forecast in conjunction with forecast development that is suited to users' needs. The case study is linked back to the larger scale by suggesting paths that seasonal climate forecast development could take if it is to contribute to improving livelihood sustainability among marginal groups. 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Univ Wageningen & Res Ctr, Environm Syst Anal Grp, NL-6700 AA Wageningen, Netherlands. Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res, Dept Global Change & Nat Syst, D-14412 Potsdam, Germany. RP Metzger, MJ, Univ Wageningen & Res Ctr, Plant Prod Syst Grp, POB 430, NL-6700 AK Wageningen, Netherlands. AB Terrestrial ecosystems provide a number of vital services for people and society, such as food, fibre, water resources, carbon sequestration, and recreation. The future capability of ecosystems to provide these services is determined by changes in socioeconomic factors, land use, atmospheric composition, and climate. Most impact assessments do not quantify the vulnerability of ecosystems and ecosystem services under such environmental change. They cannot answer important policy-relevant questions such as 'Which are the main regions or sectors that are most vulnerable to global change?' 'How do the vulnerabilities of two regions compare?' 'Which scenario is the least harmful for a sector?' This paper describes a new approach to vulnerability assessment developed by the Advanced Terrestrial Ecosystem Analysis and Modelling (ATEAM) project. Different ecosystem models, covering biodiversity, agriculture, forestry, hydrology, and carbon sequestration are fed with the same Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (lPCC) scenarios based on the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). Each model gives insights into specific ecosystems, as in traditional impact assessments. Moreover, by integrating the results in a vulnerability assessment, the policy-relevant questions listed above can also be addressed. A statistically derived European environmental stratification forms a key element in the vulnerability assessment. By linking it to other quantitative environmental stratifications, comparisons can be made using data from different assessments and spatial scales. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. CR 2003, MILLENIUM ECOSYSTEM *IM TEAM, 2001, IM 2 2 2MPL SRES SCE MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 *IPCC, 2001, CLIM CHANG 2001 MIT *IPCC, 2001, CLIM CHANG 2001 SCI *UNEP, 2002, GEO3 GLOB ENV OUTL R *WORLD CONS CONS M, 1992, GLOB BIOD STAT EARTH ALCAMO J, 2002, ENVIRON SCI POLICY, V5, P255 BAILEY RG, 1985, ENVIRON MANAGE, V9, P271 DAILY GC, 1997, NATURES SERVICS EKBOIR J, 2002, CIMMYT 2000 2001 WOR EWERT F, 2005, AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON, V107, P101 GALLOWAY JN, 2001, WATER AIR SOIL POL 1, V130, P17 KLEIN RJT, 2005, UNPUB GLOBAL ENV CHA KLIJN F, 1994, LANDSCAPE ECOL, V9, P89 LUERS AL, 2003, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V13, P255 METZGER M, 2003, LANDSCAPE, V20, P5 METZGER MJ, 2004, ATEAM VULNERABILITY METZGER MJ, 2005, GLOBAL ECOL BIOGEOGR MONSERUD RA, 1992, ECOL MODEL, V62, P275 MUCHER CA, 2003, 832 ALT REP NAKICENOVIC N, 2000, IPCC SPECIAL REPORT OBRIEN KL, CLIM CHANGE PARMESAN C, 2003, NATURE, V421, P37 POLSKY C, 2004, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V94, P549 ROOT TL, 2003, NATURE, V421, P57 ROUNSEVELL MDA, 2005, AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON, V107, P117 RUOSTEENOJA K, 2003, FINNISH ENV, V644 SCHROTER D, GLOBAL CHANGE SCHROTER D, 2003, 5 OP M HUM DIM GLOB SMITH JB, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, P913 STEFFEN W, 2001, IGBP, V4, P2 TURNER BL, 2003, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V100, P1074 VANDERMEIJDEN R, 1996, GORTERIA, V22, P1 VANITTERSUM MK, 2003, EUR J AGRON, V18, P201 VISSER H, 2004, MAP COMP KIT METHODS WATSON RT, 2000, LAND USE LAND USE CH YOHE GW, 2002, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V12, P25 NR 38 TC 4 J9 INT J APPL EARTH OBS GEOINF BP 253 EP 267 PY 2005 PD DEC VL 7 IS 4 GA 994NJ UT ISI:000234038200002 ER PT J AU Elmqvist, T Folke, C Nystrom, M Peterson, GD Bengtsson, J Walker, BH Norberg, J TI Responce diversity, ecosystem change, and resilience SO FRONTIERS IN ECOLOGY AND THE ENVIRONMENT LA English DT Review C1 Stockholm Univ, Dept Syst Ecol, S-10691 Stockholm, Sweden. Royal Swedish Acad Sci, Beijer Int Inst Ecol Econ, Stockholm, Sweden. Swedish Univ Agr Sci, Dept Ecol & Crop Prod Sci, Sect Landscape Ecol, Uppsala, Sweden. McGill Univ, Dept Geog, Montreal, PQ, Canada. McGill Univ, McGill Sch Environm, Montreal, PQ, Canada. CSIRO, Sustainable Ecosyst, Canberra, ACT, Australia. RP Elmqvist, T, Stockholm Univ, Dept Syst Ecol, S-10691 Stockholm, Sweden. AB Biological diversity appears to enhance the resilience of desirable ecosystem states, which is required to secure the production of essential ecosystem services. The diversity of responses to environmental change among species contributing to the same ecosystem function, which we call response diversity, is critical to resilience. Response diversity is particularly important for ecosystem renewal and reorganization following change. Here we present examples of response diversity from both terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems and across temporal and spatial scales. Response diversity provides adaptive capacity in a world of complex systems, uncertainty, and human-dominated environments. We should pay special attention to response diversity when planning ecosystem management and restoration, since it may contribute considerably to the resilience of desired ecosystem states against disturbance, mismanagement, and degradation. 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SO COMPTES RENDUS DE L ACADEMIE DES SCIENCES SERIE II FASCICULE A-SCIENCES DE LA TERRE ET DES PLANETES LA French DT Article C1 CGTI, F-75353 Paris, France. RP Petit, M, CGTI, 20 Av Segur,SP 07, F-75353 Paris, France. AB The likely anthropogenic climate change impacts are summarized, as well as the adaptation capabilities and the possibilities of controlling the greenhouse gas concentration in the atmosphere. A number of physical and biological systems have already been impacted by the observed temperature increases. The main domains at risk are discussed: hydrology and water resources, agriculture and food security, terrestrial ecosystems, oceans and coastal zones. Problems specific to Europe are presented. The share of the various activity sectors in the emission of greenhouse gases and the possibilities of reducing these emissions are discussed. Costs and benefits of mitigation actions can be estimated under a number of assumptions that are recalled. The results of the major economic studies are presented. The long-term efficiency of the mitigation actions is linked with their generalization to all countries in the world. (C) 2001 Academie des sciences / Editions scientifiques et medicales Elsevier SAS. NR 0 TC 3 J9 C R ACAD SCI SER II A BP 775 EP 786 PY 2001 PD DEC 30 VL 333 IS 12 GA 523RQ UT ISI:000173969600004 ER PT J AU Parry, ML Rosenzweig, C Livermore, MTJ TI Climate change, and risk global food supply of hunger SO PHILOSOPHICAL TRANSACTIONS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY B-BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES LA English DT Article C1 UK Metrol Off, JHadley Ctr, Exeter EX1 3PB, Devon, England. Goddard Inst Space Studies, New York, NY 10025 USA. Univ E Anglia, Climat Res Unit, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. RP Parry, M, UK Metrol Off, JHadley Ctr, Fitzroy Rd, Exeter EX1 3PB, Devon, England. AB This paper reports the results of a series of research projects which have aimed to evaluate the implications of climate change for food production and risk of hunger. There are three sets of results: (a) for IS92a (previously described as a 'business-as-usual' climate scenario); (b) for stabilization scenarios at 550 and 750 ppm and (c) for Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). The main conclusions are: (i) the region of greatest risk is Africa; (ii) stabilization at 750 ppm avoids some but not most of the risk, while stabilization at 550 ppm avoids most of the risk and (iii) the impact of climate change on risk of hunger is influenced greatly by pathways of development. For example, a SRES B2 development pathway is characterized by much lower levels of risk than A2; and this is largely explained by differing levels of income and technology not by differing amounts of climate forcing. CR *FAO, 1996, 6 WORLD FOOD SURV *FAO, 1999, STAT FOOD INS WORLD *INT BENCHM SIT NE, 1989, DEC SUPP SYST AGR TR *IPCC, 1997, STAB ATM GREENH GAS MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 *UN, 1989, WORLD POP PROSP 1988 ACOCK B, 1985, DIRECT EFFECTS INCRE, P33 ALLEN LH, 1987, GLOBAL BIOGEOCHEM CY, V1, P1 ARNELL NW, 2001, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V12, P201 CURE JD, 1985, DIRECT EFFECTS INCRE, P33 CURE JD, 1986, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V38, P127 FISCHER G, 1988, LINKED NATL MODELS T GODWIN D, 1989, USERS GUIDE CERES WH GODWIN D, 1993, USERS GUIDE CERES RI HANSEN J, 1983, MON WEATHER REV, V111, P609 HANSEN J, 1988, J GEOPHYS RES, V93, P9341 HULME M, 1999, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHA S, V9, S3 JOHNS TC, 2003, CLIM DYNAM, V20, P583 JONES CA, 1986, CERES MAIZE SIMULATI JONES JW, 1989, SOYGRO V5 42 SOYB CR KIMBALL BA, 1983, AGRON J, V75, P779 MANABE S, 1987, J ATMOS SCI, V44, P1211 MITCHELL JFB, 1995, NATURE, V376, P501 MITCHELL JFB, 2000, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V27, P2997 OTTERNACKE S, 1986, YM1500407 AGGRISTARS PARRY ML, 1999, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V9, P51 PARRY ML, 1999, NEW ASSESSMENT GLOBA, V9, S52 PARRY ML, 2004, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V14, P53 PEARSON R, 1989, PUBLIC RELATIONS THE, P118 RITCHIE JT, 1985, ARS WHEAT YIELD PROJ, P98 RITCHIE JT, 1989, USERS GUIDE CERES MA ROGERS HH, 1983, J ENVIRON QUAL, V12, P569 ROSENZWEIG C, 1993, CLIMATE CHANGE WORLD ROSENZWEIG C, 1994, IMPLICATIONS CLIMATE ROSENZWEIG C, 1994, NATURE, V367, P133 WILSON CA, 1987, J GEOPHYS RES, V92, P315 NR 36 TC 6 J9 PHIL TRANS ROY SOC B-BIOL SCI BP 2125 EP 2138 PY 2005 PD NOV 29 VL 360 IS 1463 GA 986CS UT ISI:000233427400012 ER PT J AU Finan, TJ West, CT Austin, D McGuire, T TI Processes of adaptation to climate variability: a case study from the US Southwest SO CLIMATE RESEARCH LA English DT Article C1 Univ Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85721 USA. RP Finan, TJ, Univ Arizona, Emil Haury Anthropol Bldg,Rm 221A,POB 210030, Tucson, AZ 85721 USA. AB The nature of adaptation to climate variability in the Southwest US is explored using the Middle San Pedro River Valley in southern Arizona as a case study. An integrated vulnerability assessment focuses on the dynamic interaction of natural climatic and hydrological systems with socio-economic systems, This approach reveals that residents in the study region do not perceive short-term or long-term vulnerability to climate variability or climate change. The paper uses an ethnographic field approach to examine the. technical and organizational factors that constitute the adaptation process and reduce vulnerability to climate in the valley, It concludes by discussing the potential dangers of ignoring climate in a rapidly growing, semi-arid environment. CR *ADWR, 1991, HYDR SURV REP SAN PR, V1 *COCH COUNT COOP E, 1997, COCH COUNT AGR *WRCC, 1999, BENS TOMBST AR MONTH ADAMS DK, 1997, B AM METEOROL SOC, V78, P2197 ADGER WN, 1999, MITIG ADAPT STRAT GL, V4, P253 BAHRE CJ, 1991, LEGACY CHANGE HIST H BAILEY WC, 1990, UNPUB BENSON CANAL C BEEBE J, 1995, HUM ORGAN, V54, P42 BLAIKIE PM, 1994, RISK NATURAL HAZARDS, V1, P1 BOHLE HG, 1994, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V4, P37 BOLIN R, 1999, ANGRY EARTH DISASTER, P89 BROOKS E, 1995, REGIONS RISK COMP TH, P255 BRYANT CR, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P181 BURTON I, 1978, ENV HAZARD, V1, P1 BURTON I, 1997, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V36, P185 CHRONIC H, 1998, ROADSIDE GEOLOGY CONLEY J, 1999, CL399 CLIMAS U AR CORBETT J, 1988, WORLD DEV, V16, P1099 DAVIES S, 1996, ADAPTABLE LIVELIHOOD EASTERLING WE, 1997, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V7, P337 FINAN TJ, 1996, TRANSFORMING SOC TRA, P301 FINAN TJ, 1999, CL300 CLIMAS U AR FINAN TJ, 2001, CLIMATE RES, V19, P97 GOLNARAGHI M, 1995, ENVIRONMENT, V37, P16 KASPERSON RE, 1995, REGIONS RISK COMP TH, P1 KATES RW, 1985, SCOPE, V27, P3 KATES RW, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P5 KELLY PM, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V47, P325 LIVERMAN DM, 1998, CLIMATE VARIABILITY LIVERMAN DM, 1999, NAT RESOUR J, V39, P99 MADDOCK T, 1998, MIDDLE SAN PEDRO RIV MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 MCGUIRE T, 1999, GULF COAST COMMUNITI MOREHOUSE B, 1998, CLIMATE VARIABILITY OLIVERSMITH A, 1999, ANGRY EARTH DISASTER REILLY JM, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P253 RIBOT JC, 1996, CLIMATE VARIABILITY, V1, P1 RISBEY JS, 1999, MITIGATION ADAPTATIO, V4, P137 SHEPPARD PR, 1999, CL199 CLIMAS U AR SHERIDAN TE, 1996, ARIZONA HIST SMIT B, 1996, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V33, P7 SMITH MJ, 2000, GEOTIMES, V45, P2 WARRICK RA, 1983, INTERPRETATIONS CALA, P67 WATSON RT, 1998, REGIONAL IMPACTS CLI, V1, P1 WATTS MJ, 1983, SILENT VIOLENCE FOOD YOHE GW, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V46, P371 NR 46 TC 3 J9 CLIMATE RES BP 299 EP 310 PY 2002 PD JUL 16 VL 21 IS 3 GA 592GH UT ISI:000177928100008 ER PT J AU Lehtonen, H Peltola, J Sinkkonen, M TI Co-effects of climate policy and agricultural policy on regional agricultural viability in Finland SO AGRICULTURAL SYSTEMS LA English DT Article C1 MTT Agrifood Res Finland, FI-00410 Helsinki, Finland. RP Peltola, J, MTT Agrifood Res Finland, Luutnantintie 13, FI-00410 Helsinki, Finland. AB The agricultural sector has potentially a significant role in reducing greenhouse gases (GHGs). Besides providing public goods, GHG reduction offers farmers new alternatives for income generation. This is especially interesting in marginal agricultural areas, e.g., in less-favoured areas (LFA) of the European Union (EU), where significant GHG reduction potential coincides with low productivity in the production of agricultural commodities. In this study, the effects of peatland cultivation restrictions were evaluated, where the objective was to decrease GHG fluxes deriving from agricultural production. The regional role of peatlands in GHG reduction and agricultural production is also evaluated. Ceasing the agricultural use of peatlands altogether could decrease Finnish agricultural sector carbon effluents by up to 10% according to a dynamic regional sector model of the Finnish agriculture (DREMFIA). Accompanying decreases in national and even in regional agricultural incomes do not appear drastic, but locally, in some municipalities and on individual farms they may be devastating. In an alternative scenario, where perennial grass production is allowed to continue and only cultivation of annual crops is forbidden, the (negative) income effects are very low. The most notable result is that significant GHG reductions can be reached with little decrease in national agricultural incomes. The two forms of restrictions were tested in two alternative agricultural policy settings: Agenda 2000 and the EU Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) reform agreed in Luxembourg on 26th June 2003. These two agricultural policy alternatives are connected with both of the aforementioned climate policy alternatives and resulting scenarios are evaluated in the simulation. The simulation provides the second main result, which says that it is not so much the climate policy which determines aggregate agricultural production and income, but rather it is the general agricultural policy framework setting the stage. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 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RP Pittock, AB, CSIRO Atmospher Res, Climat Impact Grp, MB 1, Aspendale, Vic 3195, Australia. 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Univ Auckland, Sch Geog & Environm Sci, Auckland 1, New Zealand. RP Wilby, RL, Environm Agcy, Trentside Off, Scarrington Rd, Nottingham NG2 5FA, England. AB According to projections by the United Nations, 60% of the world's population will reside in urban areas by 2030. Studies of the ecology of cities and ecology in cities will therefore assume increasing relevance as urban communities seek to protect and/or enhance their ecological resources. Presently, the most serious threats to wildlife include the degradation and/or loss of habitats, the introduction and spread of problem species, water pollution, unsympathetic management, and the encroachment of inappropriate development. Climate change could add to these problems through competition from exotic species, the spread of disease and pests, increased summer drought stress for wetlands and woodland, and sea-level rise threatening rare coastal habitats. Earlier springs, longer frost-free seasons, and reduced snowfall could further affect the dates of egg-laying, as well as the emergence, first flowering and health of leafing or flowering plants. Small birds and naturalized species could thrive in the warmer winters associated with the combined effect of regional climate change and enhanced urban heat island. This article reviews the range of climate-related threats to biodiversity in the aquatic, intertidal and terrestrial habitats of urban areas. London is used as a case study to illustrate potential impacts, and to contend that 'green spaces' in cities could be used by planners to counter climate-related threats to biodiversity, as well as to improve flood control and air quality, and reduce urban heat island effects. 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2000, HYDROL PROCESS, V14, P3133 ZERBE S, 2003, LANDSCAPE URBAN PLAN, V62, P139 ZIERL B, 2002, ENVIRON POLLUT, V119, P55 NR 128 TC 0 J9 PROG PHYS GEOG BP 73 EP 98 PY 2006 PD FEB VL 30 IS 1 GA 021UV UT ISI:000236012300004 ER PT J AU Lemos, MC Agrawal, A TI Environmental governance SO ANNUAL REVIEW OF ENVIRONMENT AND RESOURCES LA English DT Review C1 Univ Michigan, Sch Nat Resources & Environm, Ann Arbor, MI 48109 USA. RP Lemos, MC, Univ Michigan, Sch Nat Resources & Environm, Ann Arbor, MI 48109 USA. AB This chapter reviews the literature relevant to environmental governance in four domains of scholarship: globalization, decentralization, market and individual incentives-based governance, and cross-scale governance. It argues that in view of the complexity and multiscalar character of many of the most pressing environmental problems, conventional debates focused on pure modes of governance-where state or market actors play the leading role-fall short of the capacity needed to address them. The review highlights emerging hybrid modes of governance across the state-market-community divisions: comanagement, public-private partnerships and social-private partnerships. It examines the significant promise they hold for coupled social and natural systems to recover from environmental degradation and change and explores some of the critical problems to which hybrid forms of environmental governance are also subject. 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MORNING AM C STAEGER MB, 2002, GLOBALISM STIGLITZ JE, 1999, ECON J, V109, F577 STRECK C, 2004, J ENV DEV, V13, P295 TEWS K, 2003, EUR J POLIT RES, V42, P569 TOKE D, 1999, POLITICS, V19, P97 WADE R, 1994, VILLAGE REPUBLICS EC WAPNER P, 1995, WORLD POLIT, V47, P311 WATTS MJ, 2005, ANNU REV ENV RESOUR, V30, P373 WEBER EP, 2000, SOC NATUR RESOUR, V13, P237 WILBANKS TJ, 2002, INTEGRATED ASSESSMEN, V3, P100 WUNSCH JS, 1997, STUD COMP INT DEV, V31, P66 WUNSCH JS, 2001, PUBLIC ADMIN DEVELOP, V21, P277 YOUNG OR, 1989, INT COOPERATION BUIL YOUNG OR, 2001, GLOBAL ENVIRON POLIT, V1, P99 NR 135 TC 0 J9 ANNU REV ENVIRON RESOUR BP 297 EP 325 PY 2006 VL 31 GA 109QZ UT ISI:000242324900011 ER PT J AU Stennes, B Krcmar-Nozic, E van Kooten, GC TI Climate change and forestry: What policy for Canada? SO CANADIAN PUBLIC POLICY-ANALYSE DE POLITIQUES LA English DT Article C1 Univ British Columbia, Forest Econ & Policy Anal Res Unit, Vancouver, BC V5Z 1M9, Canada. RP Stennes, B, Univ British Columbia, Forest Econ & Policy Anal Res Unit, Vancouver, BC V5Z 1M9, Canada. AB On the basis of projected global climate change, Canada is expected to experience large land-use impacts. As indicated in this paper, forestry and agriculture are likely to be net gainers from climate change, with Canada as a whole possibly gaining from global warming. Adaptation to climate change will require shifting land out of forestry and into agricultural activities. Nonetheless, cost-effective mitigation strategies will likely involve the opposite - planting trees on agricultural land. The quandary for decision makers is whether to pursue mitigation strategies that could be to the detriment of future adaptation. CR ALIG R, 1997, ENV RES EC, V9, P259 ARTHUR LM, 1988, W J AGR EC, V13, P215 BALLING RC, 1995, TRUE STATE PLANET BINKLEY CS, 1994, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V28, P91 CLINTON WJ, 1993, CLIMATE CHANGE ACTIO CORBYN P, 1996, GLOBAL WARMING DEBAT DARWIN RF, 1995, 703 USDA EC RES SERV ENGLIN J, 1995, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V31, P67 FOLMER H, 1993, ENV SUSTAINABLE FUTU FROUDWILLIAMS RJ, 1996, IMPLICATIONS GLOBAL KATTENBERG A, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995 KURZ WA, 1992, NORX326 FOR CAN LIND C, 1982, DISCOUNTING TIME RIS MUSTERS APA, 1995, ENERGY CONSERVATION PEARCE DW, 1993, WORLD END PEARCE DW, 1995, FORESTRY EC ENV RICHARDS KR, 1997, CRIT REV ENV SCI TEC, V27, S279 RICKARDS KR, 1995, REGIONAL STUDIES CAR ROSENTHAL DH, 1993, ENERG CONVERS MANAGE, V34, P881 SCHIMMELPFENNIN.D, 1996, 740 USDA EC RES SERV SEDJO RA, 1995, ENVIRON RESOUR ECON, V6, P139 SEGALSTAD TV, 1996, GLOBAL WARMING DEBAT TRENBERTH KE, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995 VANKOOTEN GC, 1992, CAN PUBLIC POL, V18, P127 VANKOOTEN GC, 1993, FORESTRY ENV EC CONS VANKOOTEN GC, 1995, AM J AGR ECON, V77, P365 VANKOOTEN GC, 1995, CAN J AGR ECON, V43, P133 VANKOOTEN GC, 1997, CRIT REV ENV SCI TEC, V27, S65 VANKOOTEN GC, 1997, UNPUB EC TERRESTRIAL VINCENT JR, 1997, SCIENCE, V276, P53 WEBER GR, 1996, GLOBAL WARMING DEBAT NR 31 TC 0 J9 CAN PUBLIC POL-ANAL POLIT BP S95 EP S104 PY 1998 PD MAY VL 24 GA 105NL UT ISI:000075079600010 ER PT J AU Smit, B Blain, R Keddie, P TI Corn hybrid selection and climatic variability: Gambling with nature? SO CANADIAN GEOGRAPHER-GEOGRAPHE CANADIEN LA English DT Article C1 Univ Guelph, Dept Geog, Guelph, ON N1G 2W1, Canada. RP Smit, B, Univ Guelph, Dept Geog, Guelph, ON N1G 2W1, Canada. AB Farmer adaptation to climatic variability is explored via an analysis of corn hybrid selection in southern Ontario. Corn hybrid varieties are available for a wide range of conditions, including accumulated heat, measured as Corn Heat Units (CHUS). Hybrids with higher CHU ratings generally have higher yields, so long as there is sufficient heat for them to mature. Farmers choose their hybrid varieties prior to the growing season, in the face of uncertainty about the CHUS that will accumulate at their location. Farmers in the sample counties showed a consistent tendency to adjust their hybrid selection on the basis of the previous year's growing conditions. After the high CHU year of 1991, farmers chose significantly more longer-maturing and potentially higher-yielding, but riskier varieties. After the lower CHU years of 1992 and 1993, farmers' hybrid selections became markedly more conservative. 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Rothamsted Res, Harpenden AL5 2JQ, Herts, England. RP Porter, JR, Royal Vet & Agr Univ, Environm Resources & Technol Grp, DK-2630 Taastrup, Denmark. AB The yield and quality of food crops is central to the well being of humans and is directly affected by climate and weather. Initial studies of climate change on crops focussed on effects of increased carbon dioxide (CO2) level and/or global mean temperature and/or rainfall and nutrition on crop production. However, crops can respond nonlinearly to changes in their growing conditions, exhibit threshold responses and are subject to combinations of stress factors that affect their growth, development and yield. Thus, climate variability and changes in the frequency of extreme events are important for yield, its stability and quality. In this context, threshold temperatures for crop processes are found not to differ greatly for different crops and are important to define for the major food crops, to assist climate modellers predict the occurrence of crop critical temperatures and their temporal resolution. This paper demonstrates the impacts of climate variability for crop production in a number of crops. Increasing temperature and precipitation variability increases the risks to yield, as shown via computer simulation and experimental studies. The issue of food quality has not been given sufficient importance when assessing the impact of climate change for food and this is addressed. Using simulation models of wheat, the concentration of grain protein is shown to respond to changes in the mean and variability of temperature and precipitation events. The paper concludes with discussion of adaptation possibilities for crops in response to drought and argues that characters that enable better exploration of the soil and slower leaf canopy expansion could lead to crop higher transpiration efficiency. 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Part 1: Benchmark estimates SO ENVIRONMENTAL & RESOURCE ECONOMICS LA English DT Review C1 Univ Hamburg, Ctr Marine & Climate Res, Hamburg, Germany. Vrije Univ Amsterdam, Inst Environm Studies, Amsterdam, Netherlands. Carnegie Mellon Univ, Ctr Integrated Study Environm Studies, Pittsburgh, PA 15213 USA. RP Tol, RSJ, Univ Hamburg, Ctr Marine & Climate Res, Hamburg, Germany. AB A selection of the potential impacts of climate change - on agriculture, forestry, unmanaged ecosystems, sea level rise, human mortality, energy consumption, and water resources - are estimated and valued in monetary terms. Estimates are derived from globally comprehensive, internally consistent studies using GCM based scenarios. An underestimate of the uncertainty is given. New impact studies can be included following the meta-analytical methods described here. A 1 degreesC increase in the global mean surface air temperature would have, on balance, a positive effect on the OECD, China, and the Middle East, and a negative effect on other countries. Confidence intervals of regionally aggregated impacts, however, include both positive and negative impacts for all regions. Global estimates depend on the aggregation rule. Using a simple sum, world impact of a 1 degreesC warming would be a positive 2% of GDP, with a standard deviation of 1%. Using globally averaged values, world impact would be a negative 3% (standard deviation: 1%). Using equity weighting, world impact would amount to 0% (standard deviation: 1%). 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P175 WATSON RT, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, V1, P1 WEYANT J, 1995, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, P367 YOHE GW, 1995, J ENVIRON ECON MANAG, V29, S78 YOHE GW, 1996, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V32, P387 NR 122 TC 7 J9 ENVIRON RESOUR ECON BP 47 EP 73 PY 2002 PD JAN VL 21 IS 1 GA 530HZ UT ISI:000174353400003 ER PT J AU Iglesias, A Erda, L Rosenzweig, C TI Climate change in Asia: A review of the vulnerability and adaptation of crop production SO WATER AIR AND SOIL POLLUTION LA English DT Article C1 CHINESE ACAD AGR SCI,BEIJING 100081,PEOPLES R CHINA. NASA,GODDARD INST SPACE STUDIES,GREENBELT,MD. RP Iglesias, A, INIA,CIFOR,CARRETERA CORUNA KM 7,MADRID 28040,SPAIN. AB A number of studies have provided quantitative assessments of the potential climate change impacts on crop production in Asia. Estimates take into account (a) uncertainty in the level of climate change expected, using a range of climate change scenarios; (b) physiological effects of carbon dioxide on the crops; and (c) different adaptive responses. In all cases, the effects of climate change induced by increased atmospheric carbon dioxide depended on the counteracting effects among higher daily evapotranspiration rates, shortening of crop growth duration, and changes in precipitation patterns, as well as the effects of carbon dioxide on crop growth and water-use efficiency. Although results varied depending on the geographical locations of the regions tested, the production of rice (the main food crop in the region) generally did not benefit from climate change. In South and Southeast Asia, there is concern about how climate change may affect El Nino/Southern Oscillation events, since these play a key role in determining agricultural production. Furthermore, problems arising from variability of water availability and soil degradation are currently major challenges to agriculture in the region. These problems may be exacerbated in the future if global climate change projections are realized. Many studies have considered strategies for improving agricultural management, based on the optimization of crop management decisions. Climate change analyses could be further strengthened by economic studies that integrate the potential use of natural resources across sectors. 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Natl Off Climate Change & Ozone Layer Protect, Hanoi, Vietnam. RP Dang, HH, Hamburg Inst Int Econ, Neuer Jungfenstieg 21, D-20347 Hamburg, Germany. AB An emerging topic in current climate negotiations is the political momentum for recognising adaptation to climate change as a crucial part of a comprehensive climate policy. However, there are a number of arguments and doubts raised by politicians, negotiators and environmentalists alike with regard to the necessity of implementing adaptation in parallel with mitigation. The first aim of this article is to analyse possible contradictions and synergies between these two strategies and analyse the implications for developing countries and sustainable development targets. We then use Vietnam as a case study to demonstrate how to integrate mitigation and adaptation strategies that can provide additional benefits to the social welfare. This empirical analysis provides a basic understanding of how to address thorny questions in a nascent process of designing public climate policy in Vietnam. Lessons drawn from this research should be replicable in other developing countries having similar circumstances. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 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Univ Toronto, Inst Environm Studies, Toronto, ON M5S 3E8, Canada. RP Chiotti, QP, Univ Toronto, Environm Adaptat Res Grp, Toronto, ON M5S 3E8, Canada. AB The purpose of this paper is to provide a comparative assessment of the regional impacts and opportunities from climate change in Canada. The discussion draws extensively from a recently completed assessment of climate change impacts and adaptation in Canada, led by Environment Canada. The paper addresses impacts from three regional perspectives: expansion and northern shifts, impacts and opportunities in major regions, and ubiquitous impacts and opportunities. While some broad policy issues are evident, given the complexity of Canada's natural and human landscapes and the projected regional impacts, further research is needed before developing more targeted policy. 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