FN ISI Export Format VR 1.0 MT MC ER PT J AU Ramos-Mane, C TI Vulnerability and adaptation to climate change in Latin America - Foreword SO CLIMATE RESEARCH LA English DT Editorial Material C1 Comis Nacl Cambio Global, Montevideo 11100, Uruguay. RP Ramos-Mane, C, Comis Nacl Cambio Global, Ciudadela 1414,Piso 6, Montevideo 11100, Uruguay. NR 0 TC 0 J9 CLIMATE RES BP U6 EP U6 PY 1997 PD DEC 29 VL 9 IS 1-2 GA ZD200 UT ISI:000072661400001 ER PT J AU King, D TI Climate change: the science and the policy SO JOURNAL OF APPLIED ECOLOGY LA English DT Editorial Material C1 Off Sci & Technol, London SW1 0ET, England. RP King, D, Off Sci & Technol, 1 Victoria St, London SW1 0ET, England. AB Globally we face serious challenges from the effects of climate change. The causal link between global warming and increased greenhouse gas emissions is well established. Carbon dioxide levels are at a higher level than at any time in the past 750 000 years at least, and it is too late to stop further warming and consequent impacts on UK and global societies. Here I summarize the latest scientific evidence for anthropogenic global warming and outline strategies for adapting to its impacts and mitigating the effects in the longer term. 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A response to Epstein and McCarthy SO BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY LA English DT Editorial Material C1 Univ Colorado, CIRES, Boulder, CO 80309 USA. OECD, Environm Directorate, Paris, France. Vrije Univ Amsterdam, Inst Environm Studies, Fac Earth & Life Sci, NL-1081 HV Amsterdam, Netherlands. Univ Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada. Univ Illinois, Champaign, IL 61820 USA. NCAR, Environm & Societal Impacts Grp, Boulder, CO USA. Atmospher Policy Program, AMS, Washington, DC USA. Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res, Potsdam, Germany. Illinois State Water Survey, Ctr Atmospher Sci, Champaign, IL 61820 USA. Univ Colorado, Dept Sociol, Boulder, CO 80309 USA. Arizona State Univ, Tempe, AZ USA. Univ E Anglia, Sch Environm Sci, Tyndall Ctr Climate Change Res, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. Zeppelin Univ, Friedrichshafen, Germany. GKSS Forschungszentrum Geesthacht GmbH, Inst Coastal Res, Geesthacht, Germany. RP Pielke, RA, Univ Colorado, CIRES, Boulder, CO 80309 USA. CR *HARV MED SCH, 2004, EXP WARN GLOB WARM L *INT FED RED CROSS, 2004, WORLD DIS REP 2004 ADGER WN, 2003, PROGR DEV STUDIES, V3, P179 ALLEY RB, 2003, SCIENCE, V299, P2005 CHANGNON SA, 1997, B AM METEOROL SOC, V78, P425 CHANGNON SA, 2000, B AM METEOROL SOC, V81, P437 CHANGNON SD, 2003, B AM METEOROL SOC, V84, P1231 EASTERLING DR, 2000, SCIENCE, V289, P2068 EPSTEIN PR, 2004, B AM METEOROL SOC, V85, P1863 GLANTZ MH, 2003, CLIMATE AFFAIRS PRIM HOUGHTON JT, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 KUNKEL KE, 1999, B AM METEOROL SOC, V80, P1077 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 MILETI DS, 1999, DISASTERS DESIGN PIELKE RA, 1998, WEATHER FORECAST 2, V13, P621 PIELKE RA, 2000, J CLIMATE, V13, P3625 RAGHAVAN S, 2003, B AM METEOROL SOC, V84, P635 SAREWITZ D, 2005, NEW REPUBLIC 0106 SMIT B, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P223 TIERNEY K, 2001, FACING UNEXPECTED DI VONSTORCH H, 2005, SPIEGEL 0124 NR 21 TC 2 J9 BULL AMER METEOROL SOC BP 1481 EP 1483 PY 2005 PD OCT VL 86 IS 10 GA 977GD UT ISI:000232790200024 ER PT J AU Wright, EL Erickson, JD TI Incorporating catastrophes into integrated assessment: Science, impacts, and adaptation SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Review C1 US EPA, Natl Risk Management Res Lab, Res Triangle Pk, NC 27711 USA. Univ Vermont, Sch Nat Resources, Aiken Ctr 344, Burlington, VT 05405 USA. RP Wright, EL, US EPA, Natl Risk Management Res Lab, Mail Drop E-305-02, Res Triangle Pk, NC 27711 USA. AB Incorporating potential catastrophic consequences into integrated assessment models of climate change has been a top priority of policymakers and modelers alike. We review the current state of scientific understanding regarding three frequently mentioned geophysical catastrophes, with a view toward their implications for integrated assessment modeling. This review finds inadequacies in widespread model assumptions regarding the nature of catastrophes themselves and climate change impacts more generally. The possibility of greatly postponed consequences from near- and medium-term actions suggests that standard discounting practices are inappropriate for the analysis of climate catastrophe. Careful consideration of paleoclimate and geophysical modeling evidence regarding the possibility of changes in ocean circulation suggests a reframing of the source of climate change damages in economic models, placing changes in climate predictability, rather than gradual changes in mean values, at the focus of economic damage assessments. The implications of decreases in predictability for the modeling of adaptation are further discussed. 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Univ Alaska, Inst Arctic Biol, Fairbanks, AK 99775 USA. Univ Alaska, Agr & Forestry Expt Stn, Fairbanks, AK 99775 USA. RP Grunzweig, JM, Weizmann Inst Sci, Dept Environm Sci & Energy Res, IL-76100 Rehovot, Israel. AB Climate warming is most pronounced at high latitudes, which could result in the intensification of the extensively cultivated areas in the boreal zone and could further enhance rates of forest clearing in the coming decades. Using paired forest-field sampling and a chronosequence approach, we investigated the effect of conversion of boreal forest to agriculture on carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) dynamics in interior Alaska. Chronosequences showed large soil C losses during the first two decades following deforestation, with mean C stocks in agricultural soils being 44% or 8.3 kg m(-2) lower than C stocks in original forest soils. This suggests that soil C losses from land-use change in the boreal region may be greater than those in other biomes. Analyses of changes in stable C isotopes and in quality of soil organic matter showed that organic C was lost from soils by combustion of cleared forest material, decomposition of organic matter and possibly erosion. Chronosequences indicated an increase in C storage during later decades after forest clearing, with 60-year-old grassland showing net ecosystem C gain of 2.1 kg m(-2) over the original forest. This increase in C stock resulted probably from a combination of large C inputs from belowground biomass and low C losses due to a small original forest soil C stock and low tillage frequency. Reductions in soil N stocks caused by land-use change were smaller than reductions in C stocks (34% or 0.31 kg m(-2)), resulting in lower C/N ratios in field compared with forest mineral soils, despite the occasional incorporation of high-C forest-floor material into field soils. Carbon mineralization per unit of mineralized N was considerably higher in forests than in fields, which could indicate that decomposition rates are more sensitive in forest soils than in field soils to inorganic N addition (e.g. by increased N deposition from the atmosphere). If forest conversion to agriculture becomes more widespread in the boreal region, the resulting C losses (51% or 11.2 kg m(-2) at the ecosystem level in this study) will induce a positive feedback to climatic warming and additional land-use change. However, by selecting relatively C-poor soils and by implementing management practices that preserve C, losses of C from soils can be reduced. 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RP Pyke, CR, Natl Ctr Ecol Anal & Synth, 735 State St,Suite 300, Santa Barbara, CA 93101 USA. AB Land use and land cover interact with atmospheric conditions to determine current climate conditions, as well, as the impact of climate change and environmental variability on ecological systems. Such interactions are ubiquitous, yet changes in LULC are generally made without regard to their biophysical implications. This review considers the potential for LULC to compound, confound, or even contradict changes expected from climate change alone. These properties give LULC the potential to be used as powerful tools capable of modifying local climate and contributing significantly to the net impact of climate change. Management practices based modifications of LULC patterns and processes could be applied strategically to increase the resilience of vulnerable ecological systems and facilitate climate adaptation. These interventions build on the traditional competencies of land management and land protection organizations and suggest that these institutions have a central role in determining the ecological impact of climate change and the development of strategies for adaptation. The practical limits to the use of LULC-based tools also suggest important inflection points between manageable and dangerous levels of climate change. 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RP Naess, LO, CICERO, POB 1129 Blindern, NO-0318 Oslo, Norway. AB The article examines the role institutions play in climate adaptation in Norway. Using examples from two municipalities in the context of institutional responses to floods, we find, first, that the institutional framework for flood management in Norway gives weak incentives for proactive local flood management. Second, when strong local political and economic interests coincide with national level willingness to pay and provide support, measures are often carried out rapidly at the expense of weaker environmental interests. Third, we find that new perspectives on flood management are more apparent at the national than the municipal level, as new perspectives are filtered by local power structures. The findings have important implications for vulnerability and adaptation to climate change in terms of policy options and the local level as the optimal level for adaptation. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *DSB, 2003, HVA LAERT VI FLOMM 1 *GOV NORW, 1995, 37 GOV NORW *GOV NORW, 1996, 42 GOV NORW *HEINZ CTR, 2002, HUM LINKS COAST DIS *MIN ENV MIN LOC G, 1997, T597 MIN ENV MIN LOC *NIVA, 1996, FLOMM OSTL VAR 1995 *NOU, 1996, TILT MOT FLOM *NVE, 1999, RETN AR SIKR FLOM OM AALL C, 2003, 32003 W NORW RES I ADGER WN, 2000, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V90, P738 ADGER WN, 2000, PROG HUM GEOG, V24, P347 BACHRACH P, 1962, AM POLIT SCI REV, V56, P947 BAKKER K, 1999, 3 SIRCH U OXF ENV CH BERKES F, 1998, LINKING SOCIAL ECOLO, V1, P1 BERKES F, 2002, DRAMA COMMONS BJORNAES T, 2001, LOKALE MILJO BAEREKR BLAIKIE PM, 1994, RISK NATURAL HAZARDS, V1, P1 BRAENNE J, 1995, BEFARING RADGIVNING BROWN JD, 2002, T I BRIT GEOGR, V27, P412 BURTON I, 2002, CLIM POLICY, V2, P145 CASH DW, 2000, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V10, P109 CUTTER SL, 1993, LIVING RISK CUTTER SL, 2003, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V93, P1 DAHL RA, 1961, WHO GOVERNS DEMOCRAC EIKENAES O, 2000, FLOMMEN KOMMER EIKENAES O, 2000, LEVE MED FLAUM FLAA P, 1985, INNFORING ORGANISASJ GLANTZ M, 1989, FORECASTING ANALOGY HINDAR K, 1996, EFFEKTER FLOMMEN 199 LISO KR, 2003, BUILD RES INF, V31, P200 LIVERMAN DM, 2002, CLIMATE RES, V21, P199 LUKES S, 1974, POWER RADICAL VIEW LUNDQUIST D, 1996, FLOMMEN 1995 GLOMM L MILLER KA, 1997, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V35, P157 MORROW BH, 1999, DISASTERS, V24, P1 NAESS LO, IN PRESS I ADAPTATIO NYE JS, 1987, INT ORGAN, V41, P371 OBRIEN KL, 2004, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V64, P193 OLSSON P, 2001, ECOSYSTEMS, V4, P85 OYGARDEN L, 1996, FLOMMEN 1995 SKADER QUARANTELLI EL, 1987, INT J MASS EMERGENCI, V5, P7 RATTSO J, 2003, FISCAL DECENTRALIZAT SKURDAL J, 2000, GLOMMA LAAGEN RIVER SMIT B, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, CH18 TOL RSJ, 2003, RISK ANAL, V23, P575 UNDERDAL A, 1998, EUR J INT RELAT, V4, P5 VAYDA AP, 1999, HUM ECOL, V27, P167 WILBANKS TJ, 1999, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V43, P601 WILBANKS TJ, 2002, INTEGRATED ASSESSMEN, V3, P100 YIN R, 1994, CASE STUDY RES DESIG YOHE GW, 2002, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V12, P25 YOUNG O, 1998, 9 IHDP NR 52 TC 6 J9 GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANGE BP 125 EP 138 PY 2005 PD JUL VL 15 IS 2 GA 931VR UT ISI:000229514100006 ER PT J AU Wilderer, PA TI Applying sustainable water management concepts in rural and urban areas: some thoughts about reasons, means and needs SO WATER SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY LA English DT Article C1 Tech Univ Munich, Inst Water Qual Control & Waste Management, D-85758 Garching, Germany. RP Wilderer, PA, Tech Univ Munich, Inst Water Qual Control & Waste Management, Coulombwall, D-85758 Garching, Germany. AB Serving the world population with adequate drinking water and sanitation is an important prerequisite, not only to hygienic safety, but to prosperity and political stability as well, and will foster the adaptive capacity of the societies in the developing countries and beyond. To avoid hygienic and political disasters impacting the world economy, investment in water supply and sanitation must urgently be made. Whether the classical system of urban water supply and sanitation is appropriate to satisfy the needs of the developing world, however, and whether this system meets the general criteria of sustainability is questionable. The costs and the time needed for installation of sewers and wastewater treatment plants are tremendous. In water shortage areas, the amount of tap water required to transport pollutants to the treatment plant is hardly affordable. Recovery and re-introduction of valuable substances, including water, into the urban cycle of materials is impossible because of mixing and dilution effects inherent in the system. Decentralized water and wastewater management should be seriously taken into account as an alternative. Source separation of specific fractions of domestic and industrial wastewater, separate treatment of these fractions and recovery of water and raw materials including fertilizer and energy are the main characteristics of modern high-tech on-site treatment/reuse systems. Mass production of the key components of the system could reduce the costs of the treatment units to a reasonable level. On-site units could be installed independently of the development stage of the urban sewer system. In conjunction with building new housing complexes a stepwise improvement of the hygienic situation in urban and peri-urban areas could be achieved, therefore. Remote control of the satellite systems using modern telecommunication methods would allow reliable operation, and comfort for the users. Intensive research is required, however, to develop this system and bring it to a standard allowing efficient application worldwide. CR *WORLD COMM ENV DE, 1987, OUR COMM FUT, P211 ATHANASIADIS K, 2003, IN PRESS WAT SCI TEC COSGROVE WJ, 2000, WORLD WATER VISION M DALHOFF R, 2003, P IWA REG C WAT KEY DALHOFF R, 2003, WATER SCI TECHNOL, V48, P163 HUESEMANN MH, 2001, ECOL ECON, V37, P271 LARSEN T, 1996, WAT SCI TECH, V35, P3 LARSEN TA, 1996, WATER SCI TECHNOL, V34, P87 LARSEN TA, 2001, ENVIRON SCI TECHNOL, V35, A192 OTTERPOHL R, 1997, WATER SCI TECHNOL, V35, P121 VANHUIZEN D, 1997, WATER ENV FEDERATION, P49 VONCARLOWITZ HC, 2000, ANWEISUNG WILDEN BAU, V135 WEBER WJ, 2002, WATER SCI TECHNOL, V46, P241 WILDERER PA, 2000, WATER SCI TECHNOL, V41, P1 WILDERER PA, 2001, SQUENCING BATCH REAC WILDERER PA, 2002, DANUBE RIVER BASIN L, V34, P229 ZEEMAN G, 2000, WATER SCI TECHNOL, V41, P9 NR 17 TC 0 J9 WATER SCI TECHNOL BP 8 EP 16 PY 2004 VL 49 IS 7 GA 834HB UT ISI:000222401100008 ER PT J AU Butzer, KW TI Environmental history in the Mediterranean world: cross-disciplinary investigation of cause-and-effect for degradation and soil erosion SO JOURNAL OF ARCHAEOLOGICAL SCIENCE LA English DT Article C1 Univ Texas, Dept Geog & Environm, Austin, TX 78712 USA. RP Butzer, KW, Univ Texas, Dept Geog & Environm, Austin, TX 78712 USA. AB Environmental history is a multidisciplinary enterprise united by shared interests in ecological change and the complex interactions between people and the environment. Its practitioners include expertise in the natural sciences, ill history or archaeology, or in political ecology and related social sciences; but there is no agreement on a common agenda and limited success in bridging methodological and epistemological divisions that impede integrative and interdisciplinary research. World-systems history and environmental history also have overlapping interests in long-term change and matters of sustainability. The Mediterranean world sustained agricultural lifeways across some 8000 years, yet its environment has repeatedly been described as degraded, suggesting conceptual confusion between transformation and destruction. This paper is didactic in purpose and uses landscape histories for the Peloponnese and eastern Spain to show that the impact of recurrent, excessive precipitation events and of reduced quality of land cover are difficult to unravel, because they commonly appear to work in tandem. As a result (a) environmental change cannot be assumed or "predicted", but must be studied inductively by experts with science skills, and (b) cause-and-effect relationships demand an understanding of ecological behavior, for which humanistic insights are indispensable. Social science models highlight systemic relationships from socioeconomic and structural perspectives., but are less suited to deal with the complexity of environmental change or the contingencies exemplified by human resilience. Near Eastern.. Greek and Roman agronomic writings offer elite "voices" that speak to cumulative technological change, scientific understanding, and the context of intensification. Rural voices can be heard through ethnography, and in eastern Spain are extended into the past by archaeology and archival research. In the absence of structural constraints, they reveal collective decision-making with respect to a shifting repertoire of agricultural strategies that take into account market opportunities, demographic growth, finite resources and environmental problems. Such adaptability spells resilience, and "good farming" is culturally embedded as a civic responsibility, both in the ethnographic present and in the older, elite agronomic writings. But if the "moral economy" erodes in the wake of food stress, tax extortion, instability, insecurity, or ideological oppression, there is little incentive to pursue long-term strategies, so that behavior focuses on short-term survival. The context for this dialectic of poor versus good ecological management may be structural, but cause-and-effect in the traditional Mediterranean world ultimately depended on ecological and human resilience. Long-term sustainability is similarly non-predictive. It depends on people, rather than social theory. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 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AB Several studies have estimated the possible impacts and adjustments in U.S. agriculture resulting from a future change in climate. This paper examines how these adjustments and shifting climate conditions could affect the nation's crop weather insurance industry, including its ability to provide adequate coverage. Shifts in crop varieties, the extension of new crops into new areas, and changes in crop yields would all affect establishment of rates and many other industry practices, but we expect that these shifts could be adjusted to using existing techniques and field research. What will be most difficult to react to will be the shifting weather risk, such as ever-changing storm frequencies or intensities. Current practices of rate development and regulation of insurance rates are based on historical data, not on anticipation of future weather shifts. Outcomes seen during such climate transition periods with their inherent uncertainty include a reduced industry zeal for accepting risk. This would likely include declination of coverage, reduced coverage per unit area, and lower yield guarantees. These acts would lead to more self-insurance by crop producers, which would involve more crop diversification and greater dispersion of crops over an area. CR 1990, POLICYMAKERS SUMMARY BOWMAN JA, 1987, 109 ILL STAT WAT SUR CHANGNON SA, 1973, W GEOGRAPHICAL SERIE, P134 CHANGNON SA, 1990, J CLIMATE, V3, P568 CHANGNON SA, 1992, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V14, P191 COGAN DG, 1992, GREENHOUSE GAMBIT BU EASTERLING WE, 1990, FARM LEVEL ADJUSTMEN EASTERLING WE, 1992, ADAPTING US AGR CLIM FLORESMENDOZA FJ, 1989, INFLUENCE CLIMATE CH FRIEDMAN DG, 1988, P N AM C PREP CLIM C, P389 KARL TR, 1991, SCIENCE, V251, P1058 PEART RM, 1989, US EPA PM221 PETERSEN DF, 1990, IRRIGATION CLIMATE C, P243 RITCHIE JT, 1989, US EPA PM221 ROSENBERG NJ, 1991, PROCESSES IDENTIFYIN ROSENBERG NJ, 1992, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V21, P385 NR 16 TC 6 J9 BULL AMER METEOROL SOC BP 1703 EP 1708 PY 1993 PD SEP VL 74 IS 9 GA LY463 UT ISI:A1993LY46300004 ER PT J AU WILKINSON, TJ TI THE STRUCTURE AND DYNAMICS OF DRY-FARMING STATES IN UPPER MESOPOTAMIA SO CURRENT ANTHROPOLOGY LA English DT Review RP WILKINSON, TJ, UNIV CHICAGO,INST ORIENTAL,1155 E 58TH ST,CHICAGO,IL 60637. AB A model describing the layout of Early Bronze Age Mesopotamian states is synthesized using a range of off-site and on-site data from Syria, Iraq, and Turkey. These allow the description of the basic settlement patterns, land use, and exchange systems of an early state system. The hypothesis is tested that Bronze Age settlements in this zone of rain-fed farming tended not to exceed 100 hectares, an area which was capable of accommodating between 10,000 and 20,000 people. Detailed off-site surveys and landscape archaeology suggest that these settlements were provisioned by intensively farmed zones of cultivation that surrounded the central settlement and by tributary secondary or satellite communities. This main production zone was just capable of supporting the population of the prime site, but the constraint of labour and the frictional effect of distance meant that food produced farther away than some 10-15 km made only a minor contribution to the main settlement. 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WILKINSON TJ, 1990, ORIENTAL I PUBLICATI, V109 WILKINSON TJ, 1993, ANTIQUITY, V67, P548 WRIGHT HE, 1993, CURR ANTHROPOL, V34, P458 WRIGHT HT, 1969, 38 U MICH MUS ANTHR YOFFEE N, 1979, AM ANTIQUITY, V44, P5 YOFFEE N, 1988, COLLAPSE ANCIENT STA, P44 ZACCAGNINI C, 1975, ORIENS ANTIQUUS, V14, P181 ZEDER MA, 1991, FEEDING CITIES SPECI ZEDER MA, 1994, AM ANTHROPOL, V96, P97 ZOHARY D, 1969, DOMESTICATION EXPLOI, P47 NR 211 TC 16 J9 CURR ANTHROPOL BP 483 EP 520 PY 1994 PD DEC VL 35 IS 5 GA PR301 UT ISI:A1994PR30100001 ER PT J AU YARNAL, B TI AGRICULTURAL DECOLLECTIVIZATION AND VULNERABILITY TO ENVIRONMENTAL-CHANGE - A BULGARIAN CASE-STUDY SO GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS LA English DT Article RP YARNAL, B, PENN STATE UNIV,CTR EARTH SYST SCI,302 WALKER BLDG,UNIVERSITY PK,PA 16802. AB Is the transformation from Communism to a more market-based society making Bulgarians - and particularly farmers more vulnerable to environmental change? Intensive, open-ended interviews suggest that government policies, new privatization laws and the nation's economic crisis are decreasing farmers' flexibility and removing social safety nets. Yet generalizations are difficult because implementation of the decollectivization process is different at each cooperative farm, thus creating varying levels of vulnerability. Easing the crisis is the tradition of family-based, small-plot gardening, which appears to ensure sufficient food for most Bulgarians. 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RP Mendelsohn, R, Yale Univ, Sch Forestry & Environm Studies, 360 Prospect St, New Haven, CT 06511 USA. AB Firms and individuals will likely engage in substantial private adaptation with respect to climate change in such sectors as farming, energy, timber, and recreation because it is in their interest to do so. The shared benefit nature of joint adaptation, however, will cause individuals to underprovide joint adaptation in such areas as water control, sea walls, and ecological management. Governments need to start thinking about joint adaptation, being careful to design efficient responses which treat climate change problems as they arise. CR ADAMS R, 1998, EC IMPACT CLIMATE CH ARROW K, 1963, SOCIAL CHOICE INDIVI BRUCE J, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995 CARTER T, 1994, IPCC TECHNICAL GUIDE EASTERLING WE, 1993, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V24, P23 ESTY DC, 1998, POLICY SCI, V31, P225 FANKHAUSER S, 1999, ECOL ECON, V30, P67 GOKLANY IM, 1995, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V30, P427 HOUGHTON J, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995 KAISER HM, 1993, AM J AGR ECON, V75, P387 KUMAR K, 1998, EC IMPACT CLIMATE CH KUMAR K, 1998, MEASURING IMPACT CLI MELILLO JM, 1995, GLOBAL BIOGEOCHEM CY, V9, P407 MENDELSOHN R, 1994, AM ECON REV, V84, P753 MENDELSOHN R, 1996, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V80, P55 MENDELSOHN R, 1997, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V37, P271 MORRISON W, 1998, EC IMPACT CLIMATE CH ROSENZWEIG C, 1994, NATURE, V367, P133 SAMUELSON PA, 1954, REV ECON STAT, V36, P387 SANGHI A, 1998, MEASURING IMPACT CLI SMITH JB, 1996, CLIMATE RES, V6, P193 TOL RSJ, 1998, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V8, P109 WATSON RT, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, V1, P1 YOHE GW, 1996, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V32, P387 NR 24 TC 3 J9 CLIMATIC CHANGE BP 583 EP 600 PY 2000 PD JUN VL 45 IS 3-4 GA 324XH UT ISI:000087646800014 ER PT J AU Easterling, WE TI Adapting North American agriculture to climate change in review SO AGRICULTURAL AND FOREST METEOROLOGY LA English DT Article RP Easterling, WE, UNIV NEBRASKA,DEPT AGR METEOROL,POB 830725,LINCOLN,NE 68583. AB The adaptability of North American agriculture to climate change is assessed through a review of current literature. A baseline of North American agriculture without climate change suggests that farming faces serious challenges in the future (e.g. declining domestic demand, loss of comparative advantage, rising environmental costs). Climate change adjustments at the farm-level and in government policy, including international trade policy, are inventoried from the literature. The adaptive potential of agriculture is demonstrated historically with situations that are analogous to climate change, including the translocation of crops across natural climate gradients, the rapid introduction of new crops such as soybeans in the US and canola in Canada, and resource substitutions prompted by changes in prices of production inputs. A wide selection of modeling studies is reviewed which, in net, suggests several agronomic and economic adaptation strategies that are available to agriculture. Agronomic strategies include changes in crop varieties and species, timing of operations, and land management including irrigation. Economic strategies include investment in new technologies, infrastructure and labor, and shifts in international trade. Overall, such agronomic strategies were found to offset either partially or completely the loss of productivity caused by climate change. Economic adaptations were found to render the agricultural costs of climate change small by comparison with the overall expansion of agricultural production. New avenues of adaptive research are recommended including the formalization of the incorporation of adaptation strategies into modeling, linkage of adaptation to the terrestrial carbon cycle, anticipation of future technologies, attention to scaling from in situ modeling to the landscape scale, expansion of data sets and the measurement and modeling of unpriced costs. The final assessment is that climate change should not pose an insurmountable obstacle to North American agriculture. The portfolio of assets needed to adapt is large in terms of land, water, energy, genetic diversity, physical intrastructure and human resources, research capacity and information systems, and political institutions and world trade-the research reviewed here gives ample evidence of the ability of agriculture to utilize such assets. In conclusion, the apparent efficiency with which North American agriculture may adapt to climate changes provides little inducement for diverting agricultural adaptation resources to efforts to slow or halt the climate changes. CR *CAST, 1992, 119 CAST US AGR GLOB *HIGH PLAINS ASS, 1982, C BRIEF 6 STAT HIGH *NAT RES COUNC, 1991, POL IMPL GREENH WARM *OFF TECHN ASS, 1992, NEW TECHN ER AM AGR *USDA, 1990, MISCELLANEOUS PUBLIC, V1482 ADAMS R, 1989, POTENTIAL EFFECTS GL, V1, P4 ALLEN R, 1989, POTENTIAL EFFECTS GL, V1, P6 ANTLE JM, 1996, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V80, P67 AUSUBEL JH, 1980, CLIMATIC CONSTAINTS BACH W, 1979, ENVIRON INT, V2, P215 BARKEMA A, 1988, EC REV FED RESERVE B, P3 BOCKSTADTER TL, 1989, IRRIGATION MANAGEMEN BOGGESS WG, 1985, S J AGR EC, V17, P105 BRIGGLE LW, 1987, WHEAT WHEAT IMPROVEM, P1 BUTTLER JW, 1989, GAPS GEN PURPOSE SIM COX TS, 1986, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V83, P5583 CROSSON PR, 1989, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V15, P51 CROSSON PR, 1989, GREENHOUSE WARMING A, P69 CROSSON PR, 1991, AGR PRODUCTION RESOU CULOTTA E, 1995, SCIENCE, V268, P654 DALRYMPLE DG, 1988, AGR HIST, V62, P20 DARMSTADTER J, 1991, PROCESSES IDENTIFYIN DRABENSTOTT M, 1992, EC REV FED RESERVE B, V77, P5 DUNCAN MR, 1989, EC REV FED RESERVE B, P3 EASTERLING WE, 1989, GREENHOUSE WARMING A, P91 EASTERLING WE, 1992, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V59, P3 EASTERLING WE, 1993, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V24, P23 FISCHER G, 1988, LINKED NATL MODELS T FORNARI HD, 1979, AGR HIST, V53, P245 FREDERICK KD, 1991, TR052F US DEP EN GARDNER BL, 1984, RISK MANAGEMENT AGR, P231 GIORGI F, 1991, REV GEOPHYS, V29, P191 GLANTZ MH, 1988, SOC RESPONSES REGION, P113 GLANTZ MH, 1988, SOCIETAL RESPONSES R GRAEDAL TE, 1994, GLOBAL BIOGEOCHEM CY, V7, P1 GUDGER M, 1991, RISK AGR, P143 HANSEN J, 1988, J GEOPHYS RES, V93, P9341 HART JF, 1986, GEOGR REV, V76, P51 HAYAMI Y, 1985, AGR DEV INT PERSPECT HEADY EO, 1984, ENERG AGR, P10 HOUGHTON JT, 1990, CLIMATE CHANGE IPCC HOUGHTON RA, 1994, BIOSCIENCE, V44, P305 JONES CA, 1986, CERES MAIZE SIMULATI JONES J, 1988, SOYGRO V5 41 SOYBEAN KAISER HM, 1993, AM J AGR ECON, V75, P387 KANE SM, 1992, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V21, P17 KANE SM, 1992, EC ISSUES GLOBAL CLI, P117 KATES RW, 1985, CLIMATE IMPACT ASSES, P3 KELLER LF, 1981, WATER RESOURCES B, V17, P647 KHUSH GS, 1993, INT CROP SCI, V1, P189 KIMBALL BA, 1990, AM SOC AGRONOMY SPEC, V53 KROMM DE, 1986, WATER RESOUR BULL, V22, P791 LAWLOR DW, 1991, PLANT CELL ENVIRON, V14, P807 LEHE JM, 1986, P ASS GROUND WAT SCI, P410 LEWANDROWSKI JK, 1992, EC ISSUES GLOBAL CLI, P132 MAJOR DJ, 1991, J PROD AGRIC, V4, P606 MANABE S, 1987, J ATMOS SCI, V44, P1211 MCKENNEY MS, 1992, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V59, P103 MEARNS LO, 1984, J CLIM APPL METEOROL, V23, P1601 MENDELSOHN R, 1994, AM ECON REV, V84, P753 MENDELSOHN R, 1994, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V28, P15 MENDELSOHN R, 1996, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V80, P55 NELLIS MD, 1987, DEMANDS RURAL LAND P, P71 NEWMAN JE, 1982, ENV SOCIAL CONSEQUEN, V2 NORDHAUS WD, 1992, SCIENCE, V258, P1315 PARRY ML, 1988, IMPACT CLIMATIC VARI PHIPPS TT, 1986, AGR ENV RESOURCES FU RIEBSAME WE, 1988, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V13, P69 RIEBSAME WE, 1991, DROUGHT NATURAL RESO RIEBSAME WE, 1991, GREAT PLAINS RES, V1, P133 RITCHIE JT, 1989, POTENTIAL EFFECTS GL, V1 ROBINSON JB, 1985, CLIMATE IMPACT ASSES, P469 ROSENBERG NJ, 1982, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V4, P239 ROSENBERG NJ, 1986, FUTURE N AM GRANARY, P93 ROSENBERG NJ, 1991, ENVIRON CONSERV, V18, P313 ROSENBERG NJ, 1992, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V21, P385 ROSENBERG NJ, 1993, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V24, P7 ROSENZWEIG C, 1989, POTENTIAL EFFECTS GL, V1 ROSENZWEIG C, 1994, NATURE, V367, P133 SAVDIE I, 1991, CAN J PLANT SCI, V71, P21 SCHELLING T, 1983, CHANGING CLIMATE REP SCHLESINGER M, 1988, SEASONAL CLIMATE CHA SCHNEIDER SH, 1989, GREENHOUSE WARMING A, P7 SMIT B, 1993, 19 U GUELPH DEP GEOG SMITH JB, 1989, POTENTIAL EFFECTS GL SONKA ST, 1984, RISK MANAGEMENT AGR, P95 STEPLETON BM, 1986, NAT RESOUR J, V26, P871 STEWART JI, 1990, RISK AGR, P17 SUPALLA R, 1982, J SOIL WATER CONSERV, V37, P310 THOMPSON LM, 1969, J SOIL WATER CONSERV, V24, P219 TYRCHIEWICZ EU, 1986, FUTURE N AM GRANARY, P28 WARRICK RA, 1980, CLIMATIC CONSTRAINTS WILHITE DA, 1988, SOCIETAL RESPONSES R, P353 WILLIAMS JR, 1984, T ASAE, V27, P129 YOHE GW, 1993, ASSESSING SURPRISE N, P109 NR 95 TC 18 J9 AGR FOREST METEOROL BP 1 EP 53 PY 1996 PD JUN VL 80 IS 1 GA UV519 UT ISI:A1996UV51900002 ER PT J AU Pittock, AB Jones, RN TI Adaptation to what and why? SO ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING AND ASSESSMENT LA English DT Article C1 CSIRO, Climate Impacts Grp, Aspendale, Vic 3195, Australia. RP Pittock, AB, CSIRO, Climate Impacts Grp, PB 1, Aspendale, Vic 3195, Australia. AB Adaptation in response to anthropogenic climate change seeks to maintain viability by maximising benefits and minimising losses. It is necessary because some climatic change is now inevitable, despite the international focus on mitigation measures. Indeed, the measures agreed at Kyoto would by themselves result in only a small reduction in the climate changes to be expected over the next century. Discussion of the expected changes and possible impacts leads to the following conclusions regarding climate change scenarios in relation to impacts and adaptation: Climate change in the foreseeable future will not be some new stable "equilibrium" climate, but rather an ongoing "transient" process; Climate change predictions relevant to impacts on most sectors and ecosystems are still highly uncertain; There is a need for a greater focus on developing countries and tropical regions, and on relevant key variables, including the magnitude and frequency of extreme events; The focus should shift from single predictions, or extreme ranges of uncertainty, to risk assessment; Thresholds critical to impacted sectors and ecosystems should be identified, and expressed as functions of climatic variables; Planned adaptations will be necessary to cope with multiple stresses, including those due to non-climatic changes; A major task of adaptation science is to identify the limits of adaptation, i.e., to identify "dangerous levels of greenhouse gases" beyond which adaptation becomes impractical or prohibitively expensive. 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Univ Kassel, Ctr Environm Syst Res, D-34109 Kassel, Germany. RP Lehner, B, World Wildlife Fund US, 1250 24th St NW, Washington, DC 20037 USA. AB Most studies on the impact of climate change on regional water resources focus on long-term average flows or mean water availability, and they rarely take the effects of altered human water use into account. When analyzing extreme events such as floods and droughts, the assessments are typically confined to smaller areas and case studies. At the same time it is acknowledged that climate change may severely alter the risk of hydrological extremes over large regional scales, and that human water use will put additional pressure on future water resources. In an attempt to bridge these various aspects, this paper presents a first-time continental, integrated analysis of possible impacts of global change (here defined as climate and water use change) on future flood and drought frequencies for the selected study area of Europe. The global integrated water model WaterGAP is evaluated regarding its capability to simulate high and low-flow regimes and is then applied to calculate relative changes in flood and drought frequencies. The results indicate large critical regions' for which significant changes in flood or drought risks are expected under the proposed global change scenarios. The regions most prone to a rise in flood frequencies are northern to northeastern Europe, while southern and southeastern Europe show significant increases in drought frequencies. In the critical regions, events with an intensity of today's 100-year floods and droughts may recur every 10-50 years by the 2070s. Though interim and preliminary, and despite the inherent uncertainties in the presented approach, the results underpin the importance of developing mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change impacts on a continental scale. CR *DVWK, 1998, WORK OUT DROUGHT MIT *EEA, 1999, 2 EUR ENV AG *EIA, 2001, INT EN ANN 2001 CARB *GRDC, 1999, LONG TERM MEAN MONTH *IPCC, 1992, CLIM CHANG 1992 S RE *IPCC, 2000, SPEC REP EM SCEN MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 *IPCC, 2001, CLIM CHANG 2001 SCI *WMO, 1994, 168 WORLD MET ORG ALCAMO J, 1998, GLOBALC HANGE SCENAR ALCAMO J, 2003, HYDROLOG SCI J, V48, P317 ALCAMO J, 2003, HYDROLOG SCI J, V48, P339 ARNELL NW, 1994, IAHS PUBL, V221, P179 ARNELL NW, 1999, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V9, P5 ARNELL NW, 2000, EF5VCT930293 U SOUTH ARNELL NW, 2000, EV5VCT940114 U SOUTH BERGKAMP G, 2003, CHANGE ADAPTATION WA BERGSTROM S, 2001, CLIMATE RES, V16, P101 BRADFORD RB, 2000, DROUGHT DROUGHT MITI, V14, P7 BURLANDO P, 2002, HYDROL PROCESS, V16, P1151 BURLANDO P, 2002, HYDROL PROCESS, V16, P1177 CARTER TR, 1994, IPCC TECHNICAL GUIDE CHIEW FHS, 2002, HYDROL PROCESS, V16, P1235 DEMUTH S, 2001, ENVCT970553 U FREIB DOLL P, 2002, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V54, P269 DOLL P, 2002, J HYDROL, V258, P214 DOLL P, 2002, P 3 INT C WAT RES EN, V1, P27 DOLL P, 2003, J HYDROL, V270, P105 DYCK S, 1995, GRUNDLAGEN HYDROLOGI FREI C, 1998, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V25, P1431 GENG S, 1986, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V36, P363 GORDON C, 2000, CLIM DYNAM, V16, P147 HAAN CT, 2002, STAT METHODS HYDROLO HENRI S, 2002, GENES IMMUN, V3, P1 HULME M, 1999, NATURE, V397, P688 HULME M, 2001, CLIMATE RES, V17, P145 JANSSEN PHM, 1995, ECOL MODEL, V83, P55 JONES JAA, 1996, REGIONAL HYDROLOGICA, P87 JONES JAA, 1997, GLOBAL HYDROLOGY PRO JONES JAA, 1999, HYDROLOG SCI J, V44, P541 JONES JAA, 2002, HYDROL PROCESS, V16, P1135 KARL TR, 1993, J CLIMATE, V6, P1481 KATZ RW, 1992, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V21, P289 KILSBY CG, 1999, EV5VCT940510, P113 LEHNE B, 2001, MODELLIERUNG MESO BI, P160 MAIDMENT DR, 1993, HDB HYDROLOGY MEARNS LO, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 MITCHELL TD, 1999, PROG PHYS GEOG, V23, P57 NEW M, 2000, J CLIMATE, V13, P2217 PARRY ML, 2000, EUROPE ACACIA PROJEC PILLING CG, 2002, HYDROL PROCESS, V16, P1201 PRUDHOMME C, 2002, HYDROL PROCESS, V16, P1137 ROCKNER E, 1999, J CLIMATE, V12, P3004 SMAKHTIN VU, 2001, J HYDROL, V240, P147 TALLAKSEN LM, 2000, DROUGHT DROUGHT MITI, V14, P103 TATE EL, 2000, DROUGHT DROUGHT MITI, V14, P23 VOSS R, 2002, INT J CLIMATOL, V22, P755 WATSON RT, 1998, REGIONAL IMPACTS CLI, V1, P1 WILBY RL, 1997, PROG PHYS GEOG, V21, P530 XU CY, 1999, PROG PHYS GEOG, V23, P229 NR 60 TC 0 J9 CLIMATIC CHANGE BP 273 EP 299 PY 2006 PD APR VL 75 IS 3 GA 046EC UT ISI:000237793200001 ER PT J AU Reed, MS Dougill, AJ TI Participatory selection process for indicators of rangeland condition in the Kalahari SO GEOGRAPHICAL JOURNAL LA English DT Article C1 Univ Leeds, Sch Environm, Leeds Environm & Dev Grp, Leeds LS2 9JT, W Yorkshire, England. RP Reed, MS, Univ Leeds, Sch Environm, Leeds Environm & Dev Grp, Leeds LS2 9JT, W Yorkshire, England. AB To develop indicator-based management tools that can facilitate sustainable natural resource management by non-specialists, meaningful participation of stakeholders is essential. A participatory framework is proposed for the identification, evaluation and selection of rangeland condition indicators. This framework is applied to the assessment of rangeland degradation processes and sustainable natural resource management with pastoralists in the southern Kalahari, Botswana. Farmer knowledge focused on vegetation and livestock, with soil, wild animal and socio-economic indicators playing a lesser role. Most were indicators of current rangeland condition; however 'early warning' indicators were also identified by some key informants. This demonstrates that some local knowledge is process-based. Such knowledge could be used to improve indicator-based management tools and extension advice on the livelihood adaptations necessary to prevent or reduce ecological change, capable of threatening livelihood sustainability. There is evidence that social background influences indicator use. Communal farmers rely most heavily on vegetation and livestock indicators, whilst syndicate and landowning pastoralists cite wild animal and soil-based indicators most frequently. These factors must be considered if indicator-based management tools are to meet the requirements of a diverse community. 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Ohio State Univ, Dept Agr Environm & Dev Econ, Columbus, OH 43210 USA. Ohio State Univ, Sch Nat Resources, Columbus, OH 43210 USA. Univ Arizona, Dept Geog & Reg Dev, Tucson, AZ 85721 USA. Michigan State Univ, Environm Sci & Policy Program, E Lansing, MI 48824 USA. Michigan State Univ, Dept CARRS, E Lansing, MI 48824 USA. RP Thompson, A, Ohio State Univ, Dept Polit Sci, 2120 Fyffe Rd, Columbus, OH 43210 USA. 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RP Morf, A, Univ Gothenburg, Human Ecol Sect, Box 700, SE-40530 Gothenburg, Sweden. AB This article analyses four main models of participation in Swedish natural resource management and assesses strengths and weaknesses of one model (participation in physical/spatial planning) based on empirical studies of coastal resource conflicts in two Swedish west coast municipalities. In comparison to other administrative and planning procedures, physical planning offers possibilities to coordinate land and water management across sectors and resources and to broaden stakeholder participation. Local influence on coastal management increases with participation beyond the statutory minimum requirements, although management frameworks and practice of participation need to be developed further. Besides educating professionals and experimenting with combinations of existing procedures, in the long run an adaptation of legislation to the requirements of integrated and sustainable coastal management will be necessary. CR *EUR COMM, 2002, PROP EUR PARL COUNC *MAR RES COMM DSH, 1989, COMP COAST WAT PLANN, P4 *NORCOAST, 1999, REV NAT REG PLANN PR *SOU, 1996, SUST DEV ARCH SWED *SOU, 2000, LIV ARCH EV REG ENV *SOU, 2002, CLEAR WAT REP SOU *SOU, 2003, SEA TIM NEW STRAT RE *SWED NAT BOARD HO, 1998, CIT PART MUN PLANN E ABRAHAMSON KV, 1990, COAST PLACE REASON P ALEXANDERSSON U, 1995, NEW TRACKS EXPERIENC ALFREDSSON B, 1997, SWEDISH PLANNING SUS, P11 AREN H, 1994, EVERYTHING POSSIBLE AREN H, 1996, KOSTER SUBURB PLACE BJUR H, 1985, PLANS REALITY BLOMQVIST A, 2003, WATERCOURSE GROUPS R CICINSAIN B, 1998, INTEGRATED COASTAL O CREIGHTON JL, 1998, 82R1 IWR CREIGHTON JL, 1998, 82R5 IWR DIETZ T, 2003, HUM ECOL REV, V10, P3 FRENCH P, 1997, COASTAL ESTUARINE MA GIPPERTH L, 2005, AMBIO, V35, P154 GLESBYGDSVERKET, 1997, STRAT ACT PROGR ARCH JOHANSSON M, 2001, ARENA SUSTAINABLE DE, P61 KAY R, 1999, COASTAL PLANNING MAN LARSSON G, 2000, 479TRITAFAT82 ROY TU LINDNER W, 1996, PLANUNG KOMMUNIKATIO, P181 MALBERT B, 1998, URBAN PLANNING PARTI MILLER T, 1988, THESIS ROYAL I TECHN MORF A, 1999, HUMAN ECOLOGY MORF A, 2003, PUBL PART PLANN FOR MORF A, 2005, LOC PART COAST MAN M OSTROM E, 1996, RIGHTS NATURE ECOLOG, P127 PIDO MD, 1992, ICLARM C P, V37, P133 PIRIZ L, 2004, 52640 SWED ENV PROT PRETTY J, 2002, AGR CULTURE RECONNEC PRETTY JN, 1995, WORLD DEV, V23, P1247 RENN O, 1995, FAIR COMPETENT CITIZ RONNBY A, 1995, LOCAL FORCE PEOPLE D SKOGLUND K, 1997, PLANNING LOCAL PERSP SUNDH K, 1995, SOCIAL MOBILIZATION WITTGREN HB, 2000, VASTRA REPORT NR 41 TC 0 J9 AMBIO BP 74 EP 83 PY 2005 PD MAR VL 34 IS 2 GA 912PE UT ISI:000228090700004 ER PT J AU Sparks, TH Croxton, PJ Collinson, N Taylor, PW TI Examples of phenological change, past and present, in UK farming SO ANNALS OF APPLIED BIOLOGY LA English DT Article C1 NERC Ctr Ecol & Hydrol, Huntingdon PE28 2LS, Cambs, England. Woodland Trust, Grantham NG31 6LL, Lincolnshire, England. RP Sparks, TH, NERC Ctr Ecol & Hydrol, Monks Wood, Huntingdon PE28 2LS, Cambs, England. AB This paper examines a large number of agricultural and other phenological records kept by a fanner in Sussex, UK from 1980 to 2000. Twenty five of the 29 events were earlier in 1990-2000 than in 1980-1989. The average advancement of all 29 events was 5.5 days at a time when January-March mean temperature increased by 1.4 degrees C. In comparing the events with monthly mean temperatures, 18 of the events were significantly negatively related to temperatures of the three calendar months preceding the mean event date. Response rates to temperature varied between 4 and 12 days earlier for each degrees C warmer. A comparison with historical fanning records reveals that many of the current farming events appear as responsive to temperature now as they were 200 years ago. CR ABUASAB MS, 2001, BIODIVERS CONSERV, V10, P597 BEEBEE TJC, 1995, NATURE, V374, P219 BURTON JF, 2003, ATALANTA, V34, P3 CHMIELEWSKI FM, 2004, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V121, P69 CRICK HQP, 1999, NATURE, V399, P423 FITTER AH, 2002, SCIENCE, V296, P1689 HANKS GR, 1996, J HORTIC SCI BIOTECH, V71, P517 HULME M, 2002, CLIMATE CHANGE SCENA LEHIKOINEN E, 2004, ADV ECOL RES, V35, P1 MARGARY ID, 1926, Q J ROY METEOR SOC, V52, P27 MATSUMOTO K, 2003, GLOBAL CHANGE BIOL, V9, P1634 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 MENZEL A, 1999, NATURE, V397, P659 PARKER DE, 1992, INT J CLIMATOL, V12, P317 RUSSELL SC, 1921, Q J ROY METEOR SOC, V47, P57 SPARKS T, 2002, CLIMATE CHANGE IMPAC, P69 SPARKS TH, 1999, ESSEX BIRD REP, P154 SPARKS TH, 2000, INT J BIOMETEOROL, V44, P82 SPARKS TH, 2002, INT J CLIMATOL, V22, P1715 SPARKS TH, 2002, WEATHER, V57, P157 WILLIAMS TA, 2004, OECOLOGIA, V138, P122 ZHOU XL, 1995, GLOBAL CHANGE BIOL, V1, P303 NR 22 TC 2 J9 ANN APPL BIOL BP 531 EP 537 PY 2005 VL 146 IS 4 GA 958RO UT ISI:000231465600014 ER PT J AU Mossler, M TI Environmental hazard analysis and small island states: Rethinking academic approaches SO GEOGRAPHISCHE ZEITSCHRIFT LA English DT Article RP Mossler, M, RUTGERS STATE UNIV,DEPT GEOG,LUCY STONE HALL,LIVINGSTON CAMPUS,POB 5080,NEW BRUNSWICK,NJ 08903. CR *GOV GREN ORG AM S, 1988, ID MON MIT HAZ RISKS *PANC DIS PREP PRE, 1984, NEWSLETTER OCT, P8 ALEXANDER D, 1991, DISASTERS, V15, P209 ALEXANDER D, 1992, ENVIRON GEOL WATER S, V20, P165 ALEXANDER D, 1995, NATURAL DISASTERS BENDER SO, 1989, C DIS SUST DEV LOOK, P88 BERKE P, 1991, LINKING HURRICANE DI BERKE P, 1991, MONTSERRAT EMERGENCY BOGARD WC, 1988, SOCIOL PERSPECT, V31, P147 BURTON I, 1978, ENV HAZARD, V1, P1 CAMBERS G, 1993, RISK ISLANDS E CARIB COLLYMORE JM, 1989, DISASTER MANAGEMENT, V2, P87 COLLYMORE JM, 1992, DISASTER MANAGEMENT, V4, P163 CROSS JA, 1992, J GEOGR, V91, P190 CUNY FC, 1983, DISASTERS DEV CUTTER S, 1994, ENV RISKS HAZARDS CUTTER SL, 1989, PROF GEOGR, V41, P149 DEGG M, 1992, GEOGRAPHY, V77, P198 HAMMERTON JL, 1984, DISASTERS, V8, P279 HEWITT K, 1971, HAZARDOUSNESS PLACE HEWITT K, 1983, INTERPRETATIONS CALA KATES RW, 1994, ENV RISKS HAZARDS, P78 LEWIS J, 1981, PAC VIEWPOINT, V22, P145 LEWIS J, 1984, DISASTERS, V8, P190 LEWIS J, 1990, DISASTERS, V14, P241 MARSTON SA, 1983, POLIT GEOGR QUART, V2, P339 MCINTOSH CE, 1984, DISASTERS, V8, P273 MEYERARENDT KJ, 1991, GEOJOURNAL, V23, P323 MITCHELL JK, 1985, DISASTERS, V9, P286 MITCHELL JK, 1989, GEOGR REV, V79, P391 MITCHELL JK, 1989, GEOGRAPHY AM, P410 OKEEFE P, 1976, NATURE, V260, P566 PALM RI, 1990, NATURAL HAZARDS INTE PERNETTA JC, 1992, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V2, P19 SAVAGE M, 1993, GEOGR REV, V83, P290 SMITH K, 1992, ENV HAZARDS ASSESSIN TIMMERMAN P, 1981, ENV MONOGRAPH, V1, P1 TOMBLIN J, 1981, AMBIO, V10, P340 VERMEIREN JC, 1991, CARIBBEAN ECOLOGY EC, P127 WATTS MJ, 1983, INTERPRETATIONS CALA, P231 WATTS MJ, 1993, GEOJOURNAL, V30, P117 WHITE GF, 1974, NATURAL HAZARDS LOCA WISNER B, 1993, GEOJOURNAL, V30, P127 NR 43 TC 0 J9 GEOGR Z BP 86 EP 93 PY 1996 VL 84 IS 2 GA WM498 UT ISI:A1996WM49800004 ER PT J AU Ramakrishnan, PS TI Sustainable development, climate change and tropical rain forest landscape SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 Jawaharlal Nehru Univ, Sch Environm Sci, New Delhi 110067, India. RP Ramakrishnan, PS, Jawaharlal Nehru Univ, Sch Environm Sci, New Delhi 110067, India. AB A potential impact of climate change in the south Asian context in general and the Indian subcontinent in particular is an increase in rainfall, in some areas up to 50%. Using an extensive information base available on the dynamics of landscape structure and function of the northeastern hill areas of India, scenarios on landscape changes, as an adaptation to climate change, have been constructed. Climate change would impose a variety of stresses on sustainable livelihood of the inhabitants of the rain-forested areas through stresses on ecosystem function. It is concluded that appropriate management strategies for natural forests and plantation forestry should go hand in hand with a comprehensive rural ecosystem rehabilitation plan. CR 1980, VILLAGE DEV BOARDS M, P39 *FAO SIDA, 1974, SEM SHIFT CULT SOIL, P248 *GCTE, 1994, GLOB CHANG TERR EC O, P35 ALTIERI MA, 1990, AGROECOLOGY RES ECOL, P70 BROOKFIELD H, 1994, ENVIRONMENT, V36, P37 DAZHONG W, 1990, AGROECOLOGY RES ECOL, P322 GLIESSMAN SR, 1988, WEED MANAGEMENT AGRO, P237 GLIESSMAN SR, 1990, ECOL STUD, V78, P380 HARE WL, 1990, ECOLOGICALLY SUSTAIN KHIEWTAM RS, 1993, FOREST ECOL MANAG, V60, P327 KLINGE H, 1973, TROPIC ECOL, V14, P28 LETOURNEAU DK, 1990, AGROECOLOGY RES ECOL, P11 LITSINGER JA, 1976, MULTIPLE CROPPING, P293 RAMAKRISHNAN PS, 1984, ENVIRON CONSERV, V11, P170 RAMAKRISHNAN PS, 1992, IMPACT SCI SOC, V42, P149 RAMAKRISHNAN PS, 1992, UNESCO MAB SERIES, P424 RAMAKRISHNAN PS, 1993, SUSTAINABILITY DO WE, P165 RAMAKRISHNAN PS, 1994, HIMALAYAN ENV SUSTAI, P84 RAMAKRISHNAN PS, 1994, MANAGEMENT TROPICAL, P189 RAMAKRISHNAN PS, 1994, SPECIAL PUBLICATION, P29 RAMAKRISHNAN PS, 1995, BIODIVERSITY SCI DEV, P114 SPEDDING CRW, 1979, INTRO AGR SYSTEMS, P169 STARK N, 1977, ECOLOGY, V58, P434 SWIFT MJ, 1996, SCOPE SERIES, P261 VANDERMEER J, 1989, ECOLOGY INTERCROPPIN VANDERMEER J, 1990, AGROECOLOGY RES ECOL, P205 WHITMORE TC, 1990, INTRO TROPICAL RAIN, P226 NR 27 TC 2 J9 CLIMATIC CHANGE BP 583 EP 600 PY 1998 PD JUL VL 39 IS 2-3 GA 108TE UT ISI:000075280900023 ER PT J AU Christenson, M Manz, H Gyalistras, D TI Climate warming impact on degree-days and building energy demand in Switzerland SO ENERGY CONVERSION AND MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article C1 Swiss Fed Labs Mat Testing & Tes, EMPA, Lab Appl Phys Bldg, CH-8600 Dubendorf, Switzerland. Swiss Fed Inst Technol, ETH Zurich, Inst Terr Ecol, CH-8952 Schlieren, Switzerland. RP Manz, H, Swiss Fed Labs Mat Testing & Tes, EMPA, Lab Appl Phys Bldg, CH-8600 Dubendorf, Switzerland. AB The impact of climate warming on Swiss building energy demand was investigated by means of the degree-days method. A procedure to estimate heating degree-days (HDD) and cooling degree-days (CDD) from monthly temperature data was developed, tested and applied to four representative Swiss locations. Past trends were determined from homogenized temperature data for the period 1901-2003. The range of possible future trends for the 21st century was assessed based on 41 regional climate change scenarios derived from 35 simulations with 8 global climate models. During 1901-2003, the HDD were found to have decreased by 11-18%, depending on the threshold temperature (8, 10 or 12 degrees C) and location. For the period 1975-2085, the scenario calculations suggested a further decrease between 13% and 87%. For CDD, accelerating positive trends were found during the 20th and 21st centuries. The HDD showed the largest absolute and the CDD the largest relative sensitivity to warming (albeit starting from relatively low levels). Weather data currently used for building design increasingly lead to an overestimation of heating and underestimation of cooling demand in buildings and, thus, require periodic adaptation. Projections were particularly sensitive to the choice of temperature scenario. Nevertheless, they suggest for the next decades significant, seasonally and regionally variable shifts in the energy consumption of Swiss buildings that deserve further study. In particular, greater attention needs to be paid in future to the summer thermal behaviour of buildings. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *AM SOC HEAT REFR, 2001, ASHRAE FUND HDB 2001 *BUWAL, 2002, CLIM HUM HANDS NEW F *SIA, 1982, 3813 SIA BADESCU V, 1999, ENERG CONVERS MANAGE, V40, P885 BEGERT M, 2003, NORM90 MET SWISS BELZER DB, 1996, ENERG SOURCE, V18, P177 BOER GJ, 2000, CLIM DYNAM, V16, P427 BOER GJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, P525 CANNISTRARO G, 1995, ENERGY, V20, P637 CARTALIS C, 2001, ENERGY CONVERSION MA, V42, P1656 EMORI S, 1999, J METEOROL SOC JPN, V77, P1299 ERBS DG, 1983, ASHRAE J, V25, P60 GELEGENIS JJ, 1999, RENEW ENERG, V18, P49 GIORGI F, 2002, J CLIMATE, V15, P1141 GORDON C, 2000, CLIM DYNAM, V16, P147 GYALISTRAS D, 1994, CLIM RES, V4, P167 GYALISTRAS D, 1998, VIEWS ALPS REGIONAL, P171 GYALISTRAS D, 2000, KLIMAWANDEL SCHWEIZE, P197 GYALISTRAS D, 2002, UNCERTAINTY ANAL MON GYALISTRAS D, 2003, CLIMATE RES, V25, P55 JASPER K, 2004, CLIMATE RES, V26, P113 KERNEN R, 2002, GCMDAT VERSION 1 1 D LEGGETT J, 1992, CLIMATE CHANGE 1992, P69 MEARNS LO, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, P739 NAKICENOVIC N, 2000, IPCC SPECIAL REPORT PRETLOVE SEC, 1998, P CIBSE BUILD SERV E, V19, P55 ROSENTHAL DH, 1995, ENERGY J, V16, P77 SKARTVEIT A, 1992, DESIGN REFERENCE YEA THOM HC, 1954, MON WEA REV, V82, P111 WASHINGTON WM, 2000, CLIM DYNAM, V16, P755 NR 30 TC 1 J9 ENERG CONV MANAGE BP 671 EP 686 PY 2006 PD APR VL 47 IS 6 GA 013DP UT ISI:000235390100002 ER PT J AU Smith, JB Lenhart, SS TI Climate change adaptation policy options SO CLIMATE RESEARCH LA English DT Article RP Smith, JB, HAGLER BAILLY INC,PO DRAWER O,BOULDER,CO 80306. AB Africa is one of the regions of the world potentially most vulnerable to climate change. Warming of the globe due to increased atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases appears to be inevitable. Therefore, it is imperative that policy makers in regions such as Africa begin to consider what measures they should take to adapt to the potential conseqences of climate change. A number of adaptation policies are suggested here. The policies address general adaptation measures as well as specific measures in water resources, coastal resources (adapting to sea-level rise), forests, ecosystems, and agriculture. These measures would enhance the flexibility of resources to adapt to climate change and would have net benefits greater than costs. In some cases, the measures make sense without considering climate change because they help address current climate variability. In other cases, the measures must be implemented in anticipation of climate change because they would be ineffective if implemented as a reaction to climate change. CR *CAN CLIM PROGR, 1993, 19 U GUELPH *IPCC, 1990, POL MAK SUMM FORM RE *NAS, 1992, POL IMPL GREENH WARM *OTA, 1993, PREPARING UNCERTAIN, V1 *OTA, 1993, PREPARING UNCERTAIN, V2 *UNEP WMO, 1992, UN FRAM CONV CLIM CH *WORLD BANK, 1992, 1992 WORLD BANK *WORLD RES I, 1994, WORLD RES 1994 95 COOPER CF, 1992, SENSITIVITIES W US E EASTERLING WE, 1993, PREPARING UNCERTAIN, V1, P303 ELRAEY M, 1995, EGYPT J COAST RES, V14, P190 FREDERICK KD, 1989, GREENHOUSE WARMING A, P133 FREDERICK KD, 1990, CLIMATE CHANGE US WA, P395 FRENCH GT, 1995, J COASTAL RES, V14, P224 GILLILAN D, 1992, INNOVATIVE APPROACHE GLEICK P, 1993, WATER CRISIS HOUGHTON JT, 1990, CLIMATE CHANGE IPCC HOUGHTON JT, 1992, CLIMATE CHANGE 1992 JOHDA NS, 1989, GREENHOUSE WARMING A, P147 LEWANDROWSKI JK, 1993, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V23, P1 LILLIEHOLM RJ, 1993, PREPARING UNCERTAIN, V2, P244 MITCHELL JFB, 1995, NATURE, V376, P501 ROSENZWEIG C, 1994, NATURE, V367, P133 SCHAD TM, 1992, NEW COMMISSION STUDY SMITH JB, IN PRESS ENV PROF SMITH JB, 1989, EPA2300589050 SMITH JB, 1995, CLIMATE CHANGES INT, P4 SMITH W, 1992, WORKSH CONV OFF TECH STRZEPEK KM, 1995, CLIMATE CHANGES INT TEGART WJ, 1990, CLIMATE CHANGE IPCC THEU J, IN PRESS ADAPTING CL THOMSON DJ, 1995, SCIENCE, V268, P59 WAHL R, 1992, MANAGEMENT WATER RES WANG B, 1995, J COASTAL RES, V14, P151 WARREN RS, 1992, COASTAL LAND VULNERA WIGLEY TML, 1992, NATURE, V357, P293 WILHITE DA, 1990, IDIC TECHNICAL SERIE, V901 NR 37 TC 10 J9 CLIMATE RES BP 193 EP 201 PY 1996 PD FEB 19 VL 6 IS 2 GA UD549 UT ISI:A1996UD54900014 ER PT J AU Alexandrov, VA Hoogenboom, G TI Vulnerability and adaptation assessments of agricultural crops under climate change in the Southeastern USA SO THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY LA English DT Review C1 Natl Meteorol & Hydrol, BG-1784 Sofia, Bulgaria. Univ Georgia, Griffin, GA 30223 USA. RP Hoogenboom, G, Natl Meteorol & Hydrol, BG-1784 Sofia, Bulgaria. AB It is expected that a change in climatic conditions due to global warming will directly impact agricultural production. Most climate change studies have been applied at very large scales, in which regions were represented by only one or two weather stations, which were mainly located at airports of major cities. The objective of this study was to determine the potential impact of climate change at a local level, taking into account weather data recorded at remote locations. Daily weather data for a 30-year period were obtained for more than 500 sites, representing the southeastern region of the USA. Climate change scenarios, using transient and equilibrium global circulation models (GCM), were defined, created and applied to the daily historical weather data. The modified temperature, precipitation and solar radiation databases corresponding to each of the climate change scenarios were used to run the CERES v.3.5 simulation model for maize and winter wheat and the CROPGRO v.3.5 model for soybean and peanut. The GCM scenarios projected a shorter duration of the crop-growing season. Under the current level of CO2, the GCM scenarios projected a decrease of crop yields in the 2020s. When the direct effects of CO2 were assumed in the study, the scenarios resulted in an increase in soybean and peanut yield. Under equilibrium 2 x CO2, the GCM climate change scenarios projected a decrease of maize and winter wheat yield. The indirect effects of climate change also tended to decrease soybean and peanut yield. However, when the direct effects of CO2 were included, most of the scenarios resulted in an increase in legume yields. Possible changes in sowing data, hybrids and cultivar selection, and fertilization were considered as adaptation options to mitigate the potential negative impact of potential warming. 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AB The interface between the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP) and discussions of policy alternatives for global environmental change has not yet been clearly articulated. As a possible framework for this needed debate, a natural scientist's view is presented of the different perspectives that appear to underlie conflicting agendas for mitigation, adaptation and response strategies. Based upon different ways individual humans respond to uncertainties in everyday life, these agendas have distinct but specific needs for scientific and technical information. IGBP can best serve decision makers by consciously catering to the highest priority requirements of each agenda, without attempting to pass judgement between them. The dialogue with social scientists and members of action groups necessary to clarify these information needs and expectations has barely begun. It can be anticipated that as this dialogue develops it will have a far-reaching influence on the future formulation of IGBP. CR 1987, COMMON FUTURE 1992, GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL, V2, P262 ORIORDAN T, 1991, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V1, P91 SCHWARZ M, 1990, DIVIDED STAND REDEFI NR 4 TC 2 J9 AMBIO BP 96 EP 97 PY 1994 PD FEB VL 23 IS 1 GA NA336 UT ISI:A1994NA33600017 ER PT J AU Day, JW Maltby, E Ibanez, C TI River basin management and delta sustainability: A commentary on the Ebro Delta and the Spanish National Hydrological Plan SO ECOLOGICAL ENGINEERING LA English DT Editorial Material C1 Louisiana State Univ, Sch Coast & Environm, Dept Oceanog & Coastal Sci, Baton Rouge, LA 70803 USA. Univ Liverpool, Inst Sustainable Water Integrated Management & Ec, Liverpool L69 3BX, Merseyside, England. Aquat Ecosyst Unit UEA IRTA, Sant Carels Rapita 03540, Catalonia, Spain. RP Day, JW, Louisiana State Univ, Sch Coast & Environm, Dept Oceanog & Coastal Sci, Baton Rouge, LA 70803 USA. 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RP Cohen, SJ, 2202 Main Mall, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z4, Canada. AB The consequences of climate change and sustainable development remaining as separate discourses are explored, both in general and in the Canadian context. One of these consequences is the difference in emission and economic development scenarios generated by the two groups. A second is that strategies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions are designed and assessed in a narrow technical context, divorced from the economic and social forces that underlie them. We identify the need for climate change and sustainable development to be represented in a more explicit manner in each other's research agendas, and for integrated assessment of climate change to incorporate alternative methodologies that complement global scale integrated assessment models. These methodologies should include greater involvement of stakeholders as partners with researchers in a shared learning experience. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. 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RP Overbeck, GE, Tech Univ Munich, Hochanger 6, D-85350 Freising Weihenstephan, Germany. AB Extensive parts of subtropical South America are covered by grassland vegetation, despite climatic conditions that allow for forest development, and fire may have been an important factor in the evolutionary history of these grasslands. In a regularly burned grassland area, situated in a forest-grassland-mosaic near Porto Alegre, RS, Brazil, life form spectrum and plant species' reaction to fire were examined, allowing for (1) a physiognomic description of the grassland, and (2) a functional classification of grassland species in relation to fire. Grassland sites with different time since the last fire occurred were compared between each other as well as to sites at the forest-grassland border. South Brazilian grassland is dominated by hemicryptophytic caespitose graminoids that resist fires, but contains a large number of geophytic or hemicryptophytic forbs, in general sprouting after fire. Shrubs, mostly sprouting species of the grassland community, were present with high cover values even in recently burned areas. In contrast to Central Brazilian Cerrado, trees were of little importance: most species found were forest pioneer species without the capacity to survive fires unless growing on sites protected from fire or at the forest border where burns stop. Non-sprouting species were of little importance in the community, and only two species found were therophytes. Lack of therophytes in South Brazilian grassland vegetation deserves further attention. (c) 2006 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved. 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Forest Res, No Res Stn, Roslin EH25 9SY, Midlothian, Scotland. RP Broadmeadow, MSJ, Forest Res, Alice Holt Lodge, Farnham GU10 4LH, Surrey, England. AB The most recent climate change predictions for the UK indicate a warming of between 2 and 5 degrees C by the end of this century, with drier summers and wetter winters also anticipated across the majority of the country. Changes are predicted to be more extreme in the southern half of the UK, where severe summer droughts will become commonplace. Although rising atmospheric CO2 levels are likely to increase productivity through 'fertilizing' photosynthesis, water limitation in southern England is likely to lead to an overall reduction in growth and increase in drought-induced mortality. Incorporation of, the climate change scenarios within the GIS model Ecological Site Classification indicates that in isolation, the effects of climate change will result in significant changes in species suitability. Under current definitions the majority of native broadleaf species are predicted to become unsuitable for commercial timber production in southern England. Genetic variability in local native populations may enable a degree of adaptation. Existing trials of ash (Fraxinus excelsior L.) suggest that the best performing provenances are those from regions with a climate similar to that of the trial site. The selection of a provenance for climate change adaptation should be from a region with a current climate well matched to a planting site's predicted climate of the future. Climate matching analysis indicates that coastal areas of western France experience a climate similar to that predicted for southern England by 2050, while the more extreme scenarios predict climates better matched to the Mediterranean region at high elevation by the end of the century. The scale of climate change predictions indicates that, in southern England, native broadleaf species may be unsuitable for timber production on some soils. The planting of non-native species may need to be considered to maintain woodland cover and ensure a viable hardwood timber industry. CR *FOR COMM, 2001, NAT INV WOODL TREES *FOR COMM, 2002, NAT INV WOODL TREES *FOR COMM, 2003, NAT INV WOODL TREES *IPCC, 2000, EM SCEN SPEC REP WOR *MAFF, 1967, MIN AGR FISH FOOD TE, V16 BILLINGTON HL, 1991, FUNCT ECOL, V5, P403 BROADMEADOW M, 2003, FOREST RES ANN REPOR, P70 BROADMEADOW MSJ, 2000, NEW PHYTOL, V146, P437 BROADMEADOW MSJ, 2002, FORESTRY COMMISSION, V125 BROADMEADOW MSJ, 2002, FORESTRY COMMISSION, V125, P119 BROWN N, 1997, FORESTRY, V70, P191 CANNELL MGR, 1984, FORESTRY, V57, P177 CANNELL MGR, 1989, FORESTRY, V62, P337 CANNELL MGR, 1997, EC IMPACTS HOT SUMME, P33 CANNELL MGR, 1998, FORESTRY, V71, P277 COX PM, 2000, NATURE, V408, P184 CUNDALL EP, 2003, FORESTRY, V76, P385 CURTIS PS, 1998, OECOLOGIA, V113, P299 DONALDSON LA, 1987, IAWA BULL, V8, P285 DURRANT D, 2000, 37 FOR COMM EAMUS D, 1989, ADV ECOL RES, V19, P1 ENNOS RA, 2000, 31 FOR COMM EVANS H, 2002, FOR COM B, V125, P99 HATTENSCHWILER S, 1996, PLANT CELL ENVIRON, V19, P1369 HOUGHTON JT, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 HULME M, 2002, CLIMATE CHANGE SCENA MEDLYN BE, 2001, NEW PHYTOL, V149, P247 NEW M, 2002, CLIMATE RES, V21, P1 NISBET TR, 2002, FORESTRY COMMISSION, V125, P53 NORBY RJ, 1999, PLANT CELL ENVIRON, V22, P683 OREN R, 2001, NATURE, V411, P469 PENMAN HL, 1948, P ROY SOC LOND A MAT, V193, P120 PETERKEN GF, 1996, FORESTRY, V69, P125 PYATT DG, 2001, FORESTRY COMMISSION, V124 REDFERN D, 1995, 282 FOR COMM REDFERN D, 2002, FORESTRY COMMISSION, V125, P29 RODWELL JS, 1991, BRIT PLANT COMMUNITI, V1 WATT AD, 1996, ASPECTS APPL BIOL, V45, P307 NR 38 TC 2 J9 FORESTRY BP 145 EP 161 PY 2005 PD MAY VL 78 IS 2 GA 914PH UT ISI:000228239400005 ER PT J AU Sinclair, AJ Ham, L TI Household adaptive strategies: Shaping livelihood security in the Western Himalaya SO REVUE CANADIENNE D ETUDES DU DEVELOPPEMENT-CANADIAN JOURNAL OF DEVELOPMENT STUDIES LA English DT Article C1 Univ Manitoba, Nat Resources Inst, Winnipeg, MB R3T 2N2, Canada. RP Sinclair, AJ, Univ Manitoba, Nat Resources Inst, Winnipeg, MB R3T 2N2, Canada. AB This research investigates the livelihood systems of two mountain villages in the northwest Himalaya, focussing or? household strategies of diversification as a means of maintaining livelihood security Field research was carried out with women of different age and caste from 32 households. Eight strategies were found to be of particular importance: (1) the diversification of activities and household inputs, (2) the maintenance of crop biodiversity and landscape diversity in the agricultural system, (3) the increased negotiations with the market, (4) the reliance on agricultural wage labour (5) the building up and drawing down of household inventories, (6) the reliance on common property resources, (7) the development of social networks, and (8) the formation of community groups. Policy for sustainable livelihoods in mountain ecosystems must be firmly rooted in an understanding of these complex strategies and the knowledge of women's own efforts to ensure that their households are secure and resilient. CR *CWD, 1987, UNU WORKSH COMP STUD *INT CTR INT MOUNT, 1988, INT WORKSH WOM DEV M ACHARYA S, 1985, WOMENS WORK FAMILY S AGARWAL B, 1988, POVERTY STRUCTURES P, P83 AGARWAL B, 1990, J PEASANT STUD, V17, P341 ALLAN NJR, 1987, HUMAN IMPACT MOUNTAI BERKES F, 1997, SUSTAINABILITY MOUNT BERKES F, 1998, LINKING SOCIAL ECOLO, V1, P1 BERKES F, 1998, MT RES DEV, V18, P19 BERREMAN GD, 1970, CHANGE CONTINUITY IN CHAMBERS R, 1983, RURAL DEV PUTTING LA CHAMBERS R, 1992, 296 U SUSS I DEV STU CHEN M, 1988, 4 NAT C WOM STUD WAL DENNISTON D, 1995, 123 WORLD WATCH I DUFFIELD C, 1998, MT RES DEV, V18, P35 ECKHOLM E, 1975, SCIENCE, V189, P764 FISHER J, 1994, ENVIRONMENT, V36, P6 HARCOURT APF, 1871, HIMALAYAN DISTRICTS HOLLING CS, 1998, LINKING SOCIAL ECOLO, P342 IVES JD, 1989, HIMALAYAN DILEMMA RE JODHA NS, 1992, SUSTAINABLE MOUNTAIN, V1 JODHA NS, 1992, SUSTAINABLE MOUNTAIN, V2 KIRK C, 1993, SOCIOECONOMIC SETTIN, V2 MADAN SS, 1994, COMMUNICATION MOENCH M, 1989, ENVIRON CONSERV, V16, P137 NETTING R, 1993, SMALLHOLDERS HOUSEHO PHILLIPS L, 1989, CANADIAN REV SOCIOLO, V26, P294 SINGH RB, 1998, SUSTAINABLE DEV MOUN THOMPSON M, 1985, MT RES DEV, V5, P115 THOMPSON M, 1993, WORKSH RISK FAIRN LA NR 30 TC 4 J9 REV CAN ETUD DEVELOP BP 89 EP 112 PY 2000 VL 21 IS 1 GA 308QL UT ISI:000086724300004 ER PT J AU Dore, MHI TI Climate change and changes in global precipitation patterns: What do we know? SO ENVIRONMENT INTERNATIONAL LA English DT Review C1 Brock Univ, Climat Change Lab, St Catharines, ON L2S 3A1, Canada. RP Dore, MHI, Brock Univ, Climat Change Lab, St Catharines, ON L2S 3A1, Canada. AB The objective of this paper is to synthesize the large literature recording changing patterns of precipitation in the observed data, thus indicating that climate change is already a reality. Such a synthesis is required not only for environmental researchers but also for policy makers. The key question is the broad picture at major regional and continental levels. Some interesting conclusions for this survey are emerging. For example, the review shows increased variance of precipitation everywhere. Consistent with this finding, we observe that wet areas become wetter, and dry and and areas become more so. In addition, the following general changing pattern is emerging: (a) increased precipitation in high latitudes (Northern Hemisphere); (b) reductions in precipitation in China, Australia and the Small Island States in the Pacific; and (c) increased variance in equatorial regions. The changes in the major ocean currents also appear to be affecting precipitation patterns. For example, increased intensity and frequency of El Nino and ENSO seem associated with evidence of an observed "dipole" pattern affecting Africa and Asia, although this time series is too short so far. But the changing pattern calls for renewed efforts at adaptation to climate change, as the changing precipitation pattern will also affect the regional availability of food supply. (C) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 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P653 YU B, 1993, INT J CLIMATOL, V13, P77 ZENG N, 1999, SCIENCE, V286, P1537 ZHAI PM, 1999, ACTA METEOROL SIN, V57, P208 ZHAI PM, 1999, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V42, P203 ZHANG XB, 2000, ATMOS OCEAN, V38, P395 NR 170 TC 4 J9 ENVIRON INT BP 1167 EP 1181 PY 2005 PD OCT VL 31 IS 8 GA 967FW UT ISI:000232077900007 ER PT J AU LEE, GF JONES, RA TI EFFECTS OF EUTROPHICATION ON FISHERIES SO REVIEWS IN AQUATIC SCIENCES LA English DT Review RP LEE, GF, G FRED LEE & ASSOCIATES,27298 E EL MACERO DR,EL MACERO,CA 95618. AB While eutrophication is often discussed in light of its impact on contact recreation, aesthetic character, and the quality of a water for water supply, it can also have a marked impact on the fisheries resources of a waterbody. Qualitatively, aquatic plants serve as the foundation for higher trophic level development; aquatic macrophytes provide habitat. Excessive fertility can also, however, have adverse impacts on the quality and quantity of fish that can be supported in a waterbody. This paper presents a discussion of the qualitative impacts of eutrophication and eutrophication management approaches on fisheries. It also introduces an approach for estimating the fish yield that could be sustained in a waterbody, and the change in fish yield that would be expected to result from eutrophication management practices involving P load reduction. This approach, which is an adaptation of the statistical Vollenweider-OECD eutrophication models, is a statistical relationship between the Vollenweider-normalized P loading and wet-weight fish yield. The use of this model as a quantitative management tool in the evaluation of the impact of nutrient load manipulation on the expected yield of fish is discussed. NR 0 TC 12 J9 REV AQUAT SCI BP 287 EP 305 PY 1991 VL 5 IS 3-4 GA GW800 UT ISI:A1991GW80000006 ER PT J AU Thompson, SP Piehler, MF Paerl, HW TI Denitrification in an estuarine headwater creek within an agricultural watershed SO JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY LA English DT Article C1 Univ N Carolina, Inst Marine Sci, Morehead City, NC 28557 USA. RP Thompson, SP, Univ N Carolina, Inst Marine Sci, 3431 Arendell St, Morehead City, NC 28557 USA. AB Nonpoint agricultural surface water runoff has been identified as a significant contributor to watershed nitrogen (N) loading. Denitrification is thought to be a substantial sink for N inputs to estuaries. Denitrification rates and inorganic N concentrations were measured in Culvert Creek, NC for a 3-yr period with an adaptation of the acetylene block technique using saturation kinetic incubations that provided estimated in situ and potential rates. Estimated in situ denitrification and inorganic N concentrations sere elevated in portions of Culvert Creek, NC following fertilizer application at adjacent Open Grounds Farm Statistical correlations indicated that denitrification in Culvert Creek was regulated by inorganic N, paticularly at headwater sites. Regulation was complex at estuarine sites, where dynamic hydrological conditions affected microbial processing of N through coupled nitrification-denitrification. Potential denitrification rates were often an order of magnitude higher than estimated in situ rates. Potential denitrification showed a similar seasonal-spatial pattern to that of nitrification at the most estuarine site, dth lower rates at the mid-creek sites where nitrification was inhibited during periods of anoxia. Annual N removal in Culvert Creek was estimated at 1.27% (in situ) or 68.70% (potential rates) of inputs. An estimated 11% of N inputs, were removed via the nitrification-denitrification pathway in Culvert Creek assuming that rates were closely coupled. Mean annual (1995-1997) creek denitrification rates of 2.17 kg N ha(-1) yr(-1) (in situ) and 90.52 kg N ha(-1) yr(-1) (potential) were within the range of rates measured in various freshwater wetland systems receiving agricultural drainage. In Culvert Creek? denitrification was a significant mediator of estuarine headwater N cycling. 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RP FREEDMAN, L, UNIV WESTERN AUSTRALIA,DEPT ANAT & HUMAN BIOL,NEDLANDS,WA 6907,AUSTRALIA. AB Twentieth-century humankind is characterized by intellectual and technological brilliance - and social and Environmental chaos. Using a broad multidisciplinary approach, termed human biology the ongoing evolution of the biosphere and, in particular; humankind are reviewed. It is proposed that a lack of full understanding and acceptance of the physical requirements a,ld limitations of the human body: and of the unique, behavioural potential and responsibilities of humankind, as individuals and as a species, underlie some of the most significant world-wide, behavioral and ecological problems. An appreciation of the phenomenon of evolution, and the evolutionary mechanism, which was introduced with the emergence and flowering of humankind, provides an essential clue to the behavioural change necessary for future progress towards greater equity and sustainability for humankind and the biosphere. 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UNEP, Collaborating Ctr Energy & Environm, Roskilde, Denmark. IIED, London, England. Natl Inst Publ Hlth & Environm, RIVM, NL-3720 BA Bilthoven, Netherlands. ENDA, Environm & Dev Tiers Monde, Dakar, Senegal. Wageningen UR, Plant Res Int, Wageningen, Netherlands. RP Kok, M, Univ Cape Town, EDRC, ZA-7700 Rondebosch, South Africa. AB This paper explores an alternative approach to future climate policies in developing countries. Although climate change seems marginal compared to the pressing issues of poverty alleviation and economic development, it is becoming clear that the realisation of development goals may be hampered by climate change. However, development can be shaped in such a way as to achieve its goals and at the same time reduce vulnerability to climate change, thereby facilitating sustainable development that realises economic, social, local and global environmental goals. This approach has been coined the 'development first approach', in which a future climate regime should focus on development strategies with ancillary climate benefits and increase the capability of developing countries to implement these. This is anticipated to offer a possible positive way out of the current deadlock between North and South in the climate negotiations. First, elements are presented for an integrated approach to development and climate; second, the approach is elaborated for food and energy security in sub-Saharan Africa; and third, possibilities are outlined for international mechanisms to support such integrated development and climate strategies. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 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RP Huang, JCK, US Country Studies Program, 1000 Independence Ave,SW,PO-6, Washington, DC 20585 USA. AB The US Country Studies Program (US CSP) is parr of the United States' contribution to the objectives of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) by providing financial and technical support to developing and economically transitional countries to carry out their country studies in order to address issues on climate change The Country Studies results will be the scientific and technical bases for planning their climate change national action plans which will be implemented for future national communications and will eventually be required by the UNFCCC. Among the 56 countries supported by the US CSP there are strong oceanic and coastal vulnerability and adaptation projects in 41 country studies For the eight small island nations in the program, integrated coastal management (ICM) is the recommended adaptation strategy as the essential part of their climate change national action plans. This paper reviews the difficulties and challenges facing small island starts as they attempt to address climate change impacts on their environments, cultures, societies and economics. The paper draws on presentations and discussions taking place at a Regional Workshop for Pacific Island Nations taking place in Honolulu, Hawaii in September 1994 sponsored by the US Country Studies Program. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *IPCC CZMS, 1991, ASS VULN COAST AR SE AITAOTO A, 1994, CLIM CHANG AD STRAT, P46 BIJLSMA L, 1992, GLOB CLIM CHANG RIS DAHL C, 1994, CLIM CHANG AD STRAT, P49 HOUGHTON JT, 1990, CLIMATE CHANGE IPCC HOUGHTON JT, 1992, 1 IPCC HOUGHTON JT, 1994, WORLD COAST C 1993 N HOUGHTON JT, 1995, 2 IPCC ASS REP WORK HVIDING E, 1994, DEV CHANGE, V25, P13 IOU J, 1994, CLIM CHANG AD STRAT, P44 MISDORP R, 1990, STRATEGIES ADAPTATIO PEAU LM, 1994, CLIM CHANG AD STRAT SMITH A, 1994, CLIM CHANG AD STRAT, P54 SMITH A, 1994, RESPONSE STRATEGIES, P37 TEMPLET PH, 1986, COASTAL ZONE MANAGEM, V113, P241 NR 15 TC 0 J9 OCEAN COAST MANAGE BP 95 EP 107 PY 1997 VL 37 IS 1 GA ZM705 UT ISI:000073567600008 ER PT J AU Smith, JB Lazo, JK TI A summary of climate change impact assessments from the US Country studies program SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 Stratus Consulting Inc, Boulder, CO 80306 USA. RP Smith, JB, Stratus Consulting Inc, POB 4059, Boulder, CO 80306 USA. AB Forty-nine countries participating in the U.S. Country Studies Program (USCSP) assessed climate change impacts in one or more of eight sectors: coastal resources, agriculture, grasslands/livestock, water resources, forests, fisheries, wildlife, and health. The studies were generally limited to analysis of first order biophysical effects, e.g., coastal inundation, crop yield, and runoff changes. There were some limited studies of adaptation. We review and synthesize the results of the impact assessments conducted under the USCSP. The studies found that sea level rise could cause substantial inundation and erosion of valuable lands, but, protecting developed areas would be economically sound. The studies showed mixed results for changes in crop yields, with a tendency toward decreased yields in African and Asian countries, particularly southern Asian countries, and mixed results in European and Latin American countries. Adaptation could significantly affect yields, but it is not clear whether the adaptations are affordable or feasible. The studies tend to show a high sensitivity of runoff to climate change, which could result in increases in droughts or floods. The impacts on grasslands and livestock are mixed, but there appears to be a large capacity for adaptation. Human health problems could increase, particularly for populations in low-latitude countries with inadequate access to health care. The USCSP assessments found that the composition of forests is likely to change, while biomass could be reduced. Some wildlife species were estimated to have reduced populations. The major contribution of the USCSP was in building capacity in developing countries to assess potential climate impacts. However, many of the studies did not analyze the implications of biophysical impacts of climate change on socioeconomic conditions, cross-sectoral integration of impacts, autonomous adaptation, or proactive adaptation. Follow-on work should attempt to develop capacity in developing and transition countries to conduct more integrated studies of climate change impacts. CR *CIA, 1999, WORLD FACTB *IPCC CZMS, 1992, GLOB CLIM CHANG RIS *IPCC, 2001, CLIM CHANG 2001 SCI *US FISH WILDL SER, 1981, 103 ESM US FISH WILD *USCSP, 1999, US COUNTR STUD PROGR ALLENDIAZ B, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, V2 BAKER BB, 1993, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V25, P97 BENIOFF R, 1996, VULNERABILITY ADAPTA BOER GJ, 1992, J CLIMATE, V5, P1045 BOS E, 1994, WORLD POPULATION PRO BURNASH RJ, 1973, GEN STREAMFLOW SIMUL CARTER TR, 1994, IPCC TECHNICAL GUIDE DIXON RK, 1997, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V36, P1 FEENSTRA J, 1998, HDB METHODS CLIMATE HANSEN J, 1983, MON WEATHER REV, V111, P609 HANSON JD, 1992, 1 GPSR, P24 HANSON JD, 1993, AGR SYST, V41, P487 HOLDRIDGE LR, 1967, LIFE ZONE ECOLOGY HOUGHTON JT, 1990, CLIMATE CHANGE IPCC HOUGHTON JT, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995 KACZMAREK Z, 1993, ACTA GEOPHYS POL, V41, P1 KALKSTEIN LS, 1997, ENV HLTH PERSPECT, V105, P2 LEATHERMAN SP, 1995, J COASTAL RES, V14, P15 LEGGETT J, 1992, CLIMATE CHANGE 1992 MANABE S, 1991, J CLIMATE, V4, P785 MARKHAM A, 1996, ADAPTATION CLIMATE C MARTENS WJM, 1994, 461502003 RIVM MITCHELL JFB, 1990, CLIMATE CHANGE IPCC NEILSON RP, 1998, REGIONAL IMPACTS CLI RIND D, 1990, J GEOPHYS RES-ATMOS, V95, P9983 ROSENZWEIG C, 1994, 230B94003 EPA ROSENZWEIG C, 1994, NATURE, V367, P133 SCHLESINGER ME, 1989, J CLIMATE, V2, P459 SHUGART HH, 1980, BIOSCIENCE, V30, P208 SMITH JB, 1996, ADAPTATION CLIMATE C SMITH JB, 1996, VULNERABILITY ADAPTA SMITH JB, 1998, HDB METHODS CLIMATE TIMMERMANN A, 1999, NATURE, V398, P694 WATSON RT, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, V1, P1 WETHERALD RT, 1988, J ATMOS SCI, V45, P1397 WILSON CA, 1987, J GEOPHYS RES-ATMOSP, V92, P13315 WOLOCK DM, 1999, J AM WATER RESOUR AS, V35, P1341 YATES D, 1996, WATER RESOUR DEV, V12, P121 YATES DN, 1998, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V38, P261 NR 44 TC 6 J9 CLIMATIC CHANGE BP 1 EP 29 PY 2001 VL 50 IS 1-2 GA 441AW UT ISI:000169209700001 ER PT J AU Tol, RSJ TI Emission abatement versus development as strategies to reduce vulnerability to climate change: an application of FUND SO ENVIRONMENT AND DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS LA English DT Article C1 Univ Hamburg, Res Unit Sustainabil & Global Change, Hamburg, Germany. Ctr Marine & Atmospher Sci, Hamburg, Germany. Vrije Univ Amsterdam, Inst Environm Studies, NL-1081 HV Amsterdam, Netherlands. Carnegie Mellon Univ, Dept Engn & Publ Policy, Pittsburgh, PA 15213 USA. RP Tol, RSJ, Univ Hamburg, Res Unit Sustainabil & Global Change, Martinistr 52, Hamburg, Germany. AB Poorer countries are generally believed to be more vulnerable to climate change than richer countries because poorer countries are more exposed and have less adaptive capacity. This suggests that, in principle, there are two ways of reducing vulnerability to climate change: economic growth and greenhouse gas emission reduction. Using a complex climate change impact model, in which development is an important determinant of vulnerability, the hypothesis is tested whether development aid is more effective in reducing impacts than is emission abatement. The hypothesis is barely rejected for Asia but strongly accepted for Latin America and, particularly, Africa. The explanation for the difference is that development (aid) reduces vulnerabilities in some sectors (infectious diseases, water resources, agriculture) but increases vulnerabilities in others (cardiovascular diseases, energy consumption). However, climate change impacts are much higher in Latin America and Africa than in Asia, so that money spent on emission reduction for the sake of avoiding impacts in developing countries is better spent on vulnerability reduction in those countries. CR *IEA GHG, 1999, PH35 LNG ARROW KJ, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, P125 BATJES JJ, 1994, IMAGE 2 HUNDED YEAR BUCHNER B, 2002, CLIM POLICY, V2, P273 CLINE WR, 1992, EC GLOBAL WARMING DARWIN RF, 1995, WORLD AGR CLIMATE CH, V703, P1 EASTERLY W, 2002, ELUSIVE QUEST GROWTH FANKHAUSER S, 2005, RESOUR ENERGY ECON, V27, P1 FRANKHAUSER S, 1995, VALUING CLIMAGE CHAG HAMMITT JK, 1992, NATURE, V357, P315 KANE SM, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P75 KATTENBERG A, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, P285 LEGGETT J, 1992, CLIMATE CHANGE 1992 MAIERREIMER E, 1987, CLIM DYNAM, V2, P63 MARTENS WJM, 1996, CLIMATE RES, V6, P107 MARTENS WJM, 1997, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V35, P145 MENDELSOHN R, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P553 MURRAY CJL, 1996, GLOBAL HLTH STAT NAKICENOVIC N, 2001, IPCC SPECIAL REPORT NAVRUD S, 2001, ENVIRON RESOUR ECON, V20, P305 NORDHAUS WD, 1994, MANAGING GLOBAL COMM SCHELLING TC, 1992, AM ECON REV, V82, P1 SCHELLING TC, 1995, ENERG POLICY, V23, P395 SHINE KP, 1990, CLIMATE CHANGE IPCC, P41 SMITH JB, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, P913 SOHNGEN B, 1996, 9608 RES FUT WASH DC TOL RSJ, 1999, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V41, P351 TOL RSJ, 1999, ENERGY J SPECIAL ISS, P130 TOL RSJ, 1999, ENERGY J, V20, P61 TOL RSJ, 1999, ENVIRON RESOUR ECON, V14, P33 TOL RSJ, 1999, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V9, P221 TOL RSJ, 2001, INTEGRATED ASSESSMEN, V2, P173 TOL RSJ, 2001, POLLUTION ATMOSPHERI, P155 TOL RSJ, 2002, ENERG ECON, V24, P367 TOL RSJ, 2002, ENVIRON RESOUR ECON, V21, P135 TOL RSJ, 2002, ENVIRON RESOUR ECON, V21, P47 TOL RSJ, 2003, FNU32 CTR MAR CLIM R TOL RSJ, 2004, FNU33 HAMB U CTR MAR TOTH FL, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, P601 WEITZMAN ML, 1998, ECONOMETRICA, V66, P1279 NR 40 TC 0 J9 ENVIRON DEV ECON BP 615 EP 629 PY 2005 PD OCT VL 10 GA 979AB UT ISI:000232913400003 ER PT J AU Ali, A TI Climate change impacts and adaptation assessment in Bangladesh SO CLIMATE RESEARCH LA English DT Article C1 SPARRSO, Dhaka 1207, Bangladesh. RP Ali, A, SPARRSO, Dhaka 1207, Bangladesh. AB Bangladesh is likely to be one of the most vulnerable countries in the world to climate change. This paper discusses the possible impacts of climate change in Bangladesh through tropical cyclones, storm surges, coastal erosion and back water effect. The possible increase in cyclone frequency in the Bay of Bengal, lying south of Bangladesh, due to climate change is looked at by analyzing the cyclone data for 119 yr. Both qualitative and quantitative discussions are made on cyclone intensity increase for a sea surface temperature rise of 2 and 4 degreesC. Different scenarios of storm surges under different climate change conditions are developed by using a numerical model of storm surges for the Bay of Bengal. Possible loss of land through beach erosion due to sea level rise on the eastern coast of Bangladesh is examined. Some discussions are also made on the impacts of back water effect due to sea level rise on flood situations in the country. Finally, a few remarks are made on the adaptation options for Bangladesh in the event of climate change. CR *BANGL CLIM CHANG, 1997, ASS VULN AD CLIM CHA *BCAS, 1994, VULN BANGL CLIM CHAN, V1 *BUP, 1994, BANGL GREENH EFF CLI *MCSP, 1992, MULT CYCL SHELT PROG, V11 *MD, 1979, TRACKS STORMS DEPR B ALI A, 1980, 12080 SARC BANG AT E ALI A, 1995, ESTUAR COAST SHELF S, V41, P689 ALI A, 1996, WATER AIR SOIL POLL, V92, P171 ALI A, 1997, J REMOTE SENSING ENV, V1, P85 ALI A, 1997, MAUSAM, V48, P305 ALI A, 1997, MAUSAM, V48, P531 BRUUN P, 1962, J WATERWAYS HARBORS, V88, P117 EMANUEL KA, 1987, NATURE, V326, P483 EMANUEL KA, 1988, AM SCI, V76, P371 FRANK LA, 1985, ADV SPACE RES, V5, P53 GRAY WM, 1979, METEOROLOGY TROPICAL, P155 HEKSTRA GP, 1989, ECOLOGIST, V19, P4 ISLAM SMR, 1999, VULNERABILITY ADAPTA, P71 MAHTAB F, 1989, EFFECT CLIMATE CHANG MCBRIDE JL, 1995, GLOBAL PERSPECTIVES, P63 MILLER BI, 1958, J METEOROL, V15, P184 NEUMANN CJ, 1993, GLOBAL OVERVIEW, CH1 PRAMANIK MAH, 1983, THESIS JAHANGIRNAGAR SAUNDERS MA, 1997, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V24, P1255 WENDLAND WM, 1977, J APPL METEOROL, V16, P477 NR 25 TC 1 J9 CLIMATE RES BP 109 EP 116 PY 1999 PD AUG 27 VL 12 IS 2-3 GA V3096 UT ISI:000171723000008 ER PT J AU Matondo, JI Msibi, KM TI Estimation of the impact of climate change on hydrology and water resources in Swaziland SO WATER INTERNATIONAL LA English DT Article C1 Univ Swaziland, Dept Geog Environm Sci & Planning, Swaziland City, Swaziland. RP Matondo, JI, Univ Swaziland, Dept Geog Environm Sci & Planning, Swaziland City, Swaziland. AB The enhanced greenhouse gas effect is expected to cause high temperature increases globally (1 to 3.5 degrees Celsius), and this will lead to an increase in precipitation in some regions while other regions will experience reduced precipitation. Therefore, countries are engaged in the exercise of evaluating the impact of expected climate change on water resources using General Circulation Models (GCM) and hydrologic models. The WatBall model has been found appropriate for the evaluation of the impact of climate on water resources. The Usutu catchment was selected for the evaluation of the impact of climate change on water resources because it covers two thirds of Swaziland and traverses the four physiographic regions. The results of GCM models (precipitation, temperature, and, thus, potential evapotranspiration) have been used as input to the calibrated WatBall model to forecast streamflow for Usutu catchment for the wet, dry, and average annual conditions for the year 2075. Without taking into consideration population increase and expanded agricultural activities, a comparison between observed and simulated streamflow reveals that all the GCM models are simulating low flows from June to September for the wet years and from May to September for the dry and normal years, The effect of population increase on water resources under climate change has revealed that all the GCM models simulate a water deficit for the winter months (May to September). What can be concluded here is that streamflows will be low during the winter months and the population increase will cause water shortages during the winter months. Therefore, optimal water resources management will be crucial. Adaptation options have been suggested and range from modification of the existing infrastructure to water demand management. CR *IPCC, 1990, CLIM CHANG IPCC SCI WATSON RT, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, V1, P1 *WMO ICSU UNEP, 1989, FULL RANG RESP ANT C ANDERSON MG, 1985, HYDROLOGICAL FORECAS BENOFF R, 1996, VULNERABILITY ADAPTA HUGHES DA, 1994, J HYDROL, V155, P265 KUNZ RP, 1993, THESIS U NATAL PIETE MILLER BA, 1989, P 1989 NAT C HYDR EN PITMAN WN, 1973, 293 U WITW HYDR RES SCHULZE RE, 1984, 63284 WAT RES COMM SCHULZE RE, 2000, 33 ACRU U NAT SCH BI SHAAKE JC, 1989, P 1989 NAT C HYDR EN SINGH VP, 1995, COMPUTER MODELS WATE STRZEPEK KM, 1996, WATER RESOURCES MANA WOOD EF, 1985, REAL TIME FORECASTIN WURBS RA, 1998, WAT INT, V23 YATES D, 1994, COMPARISON WATER BAL NR 17 TC 2 J9 WATER INT BP 425 EP 434 PY 2001 PD SEP VL 26 IS 3 GA 487GC UT ISI:000171864500012 ER PT J AU Berry, PM Rounsevell, MDA Harrison, PA Audsley, E TI Assessing the vulnerability of agricultural land use and species to climate change and the role of policy in facilitating adaptation SO ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE & POLICY LA English DT Article C1 Univ Oxford, Ctr Environm, Environm Change Inst, Oxford OX1 3QY, England. Univ Catholique Louvain, Dept Geog, B-1348 Louvain, Belgium. Silsoe Res Inst, Biomath Grp, Silsoe MK45 4HS, Beds, England. RP Berry, PM, Univ Oxford, Ctr Environm, Environm Change Inst, S Parks Rd,Dyson Perrins Bldg, Oxford OX1 3QY, England. AB The term vulnerability has been used in a variety of contexts, including climate change impact assessment. In this paper those issues relevant to climate change impacts on agriculture and species are discussed. Outputs from models are used to assess the vulnerability of fanners and species to climate and socio-economic change by estimating their sensitivity and capacity to adapt to external factors as a means of identifying what causes the differences in their vulnerability. The results showed that the vulnerability of both farmers and species is dependent on the scenario under consideration. In agriculture, it is the socio-economic scenarios that particularly lead to different patterns of intensification, extensification and abandonment. For species, vulnerability is more related to the climate change scenarios. In both cases, the adaptation options and potential were associated with the different socio-economic futures and policy intervention. The conceptual linking of the two sectors shows that impacts in the agriculture sector and consequent adaptation could have a significant effect on the adaptation potential of species. This demonstrates the importance of cross-sectoral assessments of vulnerability and highlights the importance of sectoral integration in policy development and implementation. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 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RP Byers, JE, Univ New Hampshire, Dept Zool, 46 Coll Rd, Durham, NH 03824 USA. AB Changes in environmental conditions often reverse outcomes of competitive interactions among species. Such context dependency implies that the speed, persistence, and ubiquity of anthropogenic habitat alterations may suddenly put even previously well-adapted native species at a competitive disadvantage with non-native species. That is, anthropogenic disturbance may so drastically alter environments that a native species finds itself in an environment that in key ways is just as novel as it is to a non-indigenous species. Extreme disturbances may thereby erase a native species' prior advantage of local environmental adaptation accrued during its long-term incumbency over evolutionary time. I document examples from two areas of dramatic human alteration of selection regimes - eutrophication and the selective removal of top predators - that support this mechanism. Additionally, I highlight ways in which this mechanism is experimentally testable. Alteration of selection regimes may prove to be a powerful explanation for the enhanced success and impact of biological invasions in our globally disturbed biosphere. 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RP ROSENBERG, NJ, PACIFIC NW LAB, WASHINGTON, DC USA. AB Measures to reduce the use of fossil fuels, suppression of on-farm emissions of methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O), afforestation, and geoengineering 'fixes' have been proposed to mitigate or eliminate greenhouse-forced climate change. These measures will have impacts on agriculture and other sectors of the economy. Mandatory reductions in the use of carbon dioxide (CO2)-emitting fossil fuels and/or carbon taxes will make energy more expensive. Profitability in agriculture will be affected as costs rise for essential activities. Hydropower will compete more strongly with irrigation for available water than it does now. Water for agriculture will be in shorter supply and will be more costly. New technologies and higher levels of management will be needed to reduce agricultural emissions of CH4 and N2O. If not too costly, some of the technologies proposed could actually improve production efficiencies and profitability. Afforestation on a massive scale has been proposed as a means of reducing the accumulation of CO2 in the atmosphere. Afforestation on the requisite scale will create considerable competition with agriculture for good land. Afforesting waste lands and recently deforested lands in the tropics may relieve some pressure for afforestation in the temperate regions. Geoengineering has been proposed as a strategy to counteract inadvertent climate change. Not all of the geoengineering schemes proposed have obvious linkages to agriculture, but some may have. CO2 enrichment of the atmosphere is known to increase photosynthesis, decrease evapotranspiration and improve water-use efficiency. It is difficult to know how severe the effects of climate change will be (and where?) so that we cannot confidently state that they will (or will not) be offset by CO2 enrichment. In this paper we speculate about whether the mitigation measures described above alter comparative advantage of developed and developing country agricultures, how this might happen, and how these changes might affect regional food security. Those mitigation measures that increase demands for water and land make it more difficult for agriculture to compete for these resources pose the greatest threats to global food security. 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RP Matthews, KB, Macaulay Inst, Aberdeen AB15 8QH, Scotland. AB This paper presents a scenario-based analysis of the impacts of Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) reform for upland agriculture using a Welsh case-study. Specifically the paper examines the impacts of the introduction of the single-farm payment (SFP), the modulation of direct payments under Pillar I of the CAP and the increase in agri-environment payments under Pillar II. Three enterprises are examined, upland sheep rearing with lamb finishing, spring- and autumn-calving suckler-cattle with calf rearing. These enterprises are modelled under conditions in 2002/3, 2004/5 and for the reformed CAP in 2005/6. To support this analysis a livestock system model (LSM) was implemented. The model assesses alternative management regimen using a flexible state-transition approach. This simplifies the realisation and parameterisation of potentially complex management regimen. The model tracks fodder requirements to achieve targets based on defined diets. The LSM underpins whole-farm analyses of stocking-rates, labour and other resource requirements and net-farm income. From the case study the paper concludes that the impacts of the introduction of the CAP reform on the financial performance of the systems are small but negative (a net reduction of around 5% in support). The larger reduction in direct payments (15-18%) is partially offset by agri-environment measures. The paper concludes that while SFP encourages a more market-oriented outlook, the adaptive capacity within systems as they stand is very limited. There are a range of possible adaptation strategies, but for the uplands the extensification of cattle systems by reducing stock numbers and cutting back on labour seems most probable. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *AFRC, 1993, EN PROT REQ RUM ADV *DEFRA, 2002, FARM FOODS CONTR SUS *DEFRA, 2004, CAP SINGL PAYM SCHEM *EU COMM, 1999, STRENGTH UN PREP ENL *EU COMM, 2003, IP03893 EU COMM *MAFF, 1992, FEED COMP UK TABL FE *MEAT LIV COMM, 2000, SHEEP YB 2000 *MEAT LIV COMM, 2003, BEEF YB 2003 *SCOTT EFF, 2001, FORW STRAT SCOTT AGR *SCOTT ENT GRAM, 2001, MAK AB FARM SYST MOR *SCOTT EX, 2002, CUST CHANG *WELSH ASS GOV, 2004, CAP REF ONL CHADWICK L, 2002, FARM MANAGEMENT HDB CHADWICK L, 2004, FARM MANAGEMENT HDB FREER M, 1997, AGR SYST, V54, P77 LOEWER OJ, 1998, AGR SYSTEMS MODELING, P301 MATTHEWS K, UNPUB LAND USE POLIC MATTHEWS K, 2003, INTEGRATIVE MODELLIN, V4, P1534 MATTHEWS KB, 2006, AGR SYST, V87, P18 MCCOWN RL, 2002, AGR SYST, V74, P179 RIVINGTON M, IN PRESS AGR SYSTEMS RIVINGTON M, 2004, INT C COMPLEXITY INT SCHWARTZ G, 2003, SCOPING STUDY MODELL STOCKLE CO, 2003, EUR J AGRON, V18, P289 STUTH JW, 2002, AGR SYST, V74, P99 WRIGHT G, 2004, GEOCARTO INT, V18, P13 WRIGHT GG, 2003, COMPUT ELECTRON AGR, V38, P175 NR 27 TC 0 J9 AGR SYST BP 32 EP 61 PY 2006 PD OCT VL 90 IS 1-3 GA 064HQ UT ISI:000239080200002 ER PT J AU Waters, MR Ravesloot, JC TI Disaster or catastrophe: Human adaptation to high- and low-frequency landscape processes - A reply to Ensor, Ensor, and Devries SO AMERICAN ANTIQUITY LA English DT Editorial Material C1 Texas A&M Univ, Dept Anthropol, College Stn, TX 77843 USA. Dept Land & Water Resources, Cultural Resource Management Program, Sacaton, AZ 85247 USA. RP Waters, MR, Texas A&M Univ, Dept Anthropol, College Stn, TX 77843 USA. AB A regional episode of erosion between A.D. 1020 and 1160 coincides with social, political, economic, and demographic changes in the Hohokam culture. This regional erosional event was of such magnitude that it accelerated cultural changes that were already underway. The Ensor et al. (2003) commentary and attempt to layer a number of hypotheses on our original interpretations art fraught with problems. CR BLANTON RE, 1981, ANCIENT MESOAMERICA BUTZER KW, 2002, ARCHAEOLOGY HUMAN EC CRUMLEY CL, 1994, HIST ECOLOGY CULTURA, P1 DARLIG JA, 2002, 67 ANN M SOC AM ARCH DEAN JS, 1988, ANASAZI CHANGING ENV, P25 EISELT BS, 2002, 67 ANN M SOC AM ARCH EISELT BS, 2002, 8 PMIP GIL RIV IND C ENSOR BE, 2003, AM ANTIQUITY, P169 FISH SK, 1992, 56 U AR GUMERMAN GJ, 1991, EXPLORING HOHOKAM PR, P1 HALL SA, 1990, GEOLOGY, V18, P342 HAURY EW, 1945, PEAB MUS AM ARCH ETH HAURY EW, 1976, HOHOKAM DESERT FARME LOENDORF C, 2002, 67 ANN M SOC AM ARCH OLIVERSMITH A, 1999, ANGRY EARTH DISASTER PETERSON K, 2002, 67 ANN M SOC AM ARCH RANDOLPH BG, 2002, 67 ANN M SOC AM ARCH REVESLOOT JC, 2002, 67 ANN M SOC AM ARCH REYCRAFT RM, 2000, 7 MAXW MUS ANTRH RICE GE, 2002, 67 ANN M SOC AM ARCH RITTER DF, 1995, PROCESS GEOMORPHOLOG WATERS MR, 2000, QUATERNARY RES, V54, P49 WATERS MR, 2001, AM ANTIQUITY, V66, P285 WATERS MR, 2001, GEOLOGY, V29, P399 WOODSON KW, 2002, 67 ANN M SOC AM ARCH NR 25 TC 2 J9 AMER ANTIQ BP 400 EP 405 PY 2003 PD APR VL 68 IS 2 GA 669AB UT ISI:000182328800012 ER PT J AU Anderies, JM TI Culture and human agro-ecosystem dynamics: the Tsembaga of New Guinea SO JOURNAL OF THEORETICAL BIOLOGY LA English DT Article C1 Univ British Columbia, Inst Appl Math, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z2, Canada. RP Anderies, JM, Univ British Columbia, Inst Appl Math, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z2, Canada. AB In his classic work, Pigs for the Ancestors, Roy Rappaport proposed that the ritual cycle of the Tsembaga was a mechanism to regulate human population growth and prevent the degradation of the Tsembaga ecosystem. Rappaport provided detailed ethnographic and ecological information to support his claim, but many aspects of Rappaport's model were subsequently criticised. Several simulation models of the Tsembaga ecosystem were constructed to test Rappaport's hypothesis (Shantzis & Behrens, 1973; Foin & Davis, 1984) and evaluate possible alternatives (e.g. Foin & Davis, 1987). The basic conclusions were that it was possible to develop models supporting Rappaport's hypothesis but they were extremely sensitive to parameter choices, and other simpler population control mechanisms might be more likely (Buchbinder, 1977; Foin & Davis, 1987). In this paper, a much simpler dynamical system model for a slash-and-burn agricultural system is developed and applied to the Tsembaga system. By analysing the structure of the model for different physical and socioeconomic conditions, sources of instability and possible stabilising mechanisms are identified. The model indicates that behavioral plasticity (ability to modify behavior over a wide range of behavioral options, quickly and easily) is a fundamental source of instability which is strong enough to nullify more direct stabilising influences such as malnutrition and disease. This suggests that the only possible mechanism to counter to this fundamentally destabilising force may be cultural, i.e. the ritual cycle. Finally, a condition is outlined for which the ritual cycle will produce (local) stability. (C) 1998 Academic Press. 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RP Vincent, K, Univ E Anglia, Sch Environm Sci, Tyndall Ctr Climate Change Res, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. AB Understanding different adaptive capacities is a prerequisite for targeting interventions to reduce the adverse impacts of climate change. Indicators and indices are common tools in this process, but their construction embodies many uncertainties, not least of which is their scale specificity. This paper describes the development of two empirical adaptive capacity indices for use at different scales of analysis: a national index for cross-country comparison in Africa and a household index for cross-household comparison in a village in Limpopo province, South Africa. Explaining the decisions made at each stage of construction illuminates the degree of uncertainty involved when assessing adaptive capacity, and how this uncertainty is compounded when looking across different scales of analysis. It concludes that the central elements of adaptive capacity, based on institutional collective response and the availability of and access to resources, are common at different scales, although the structure of each index is scale-specific. Hence the findings of these apparently irreconcilable scales of analysis converge to demonstrate points of leverage for policy intervention to raise resilience and the capacity to adapt to the risks posed by climate change. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 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Swiss Fed Inst Technol, Res Lab Econ & Management Environm, CH-1015 Lausanne, Switzerland. Grp HEC, Dept Finance, F-78350 Jouy En Josas, France. Int Finance Corp, Foreign Investment Advisory Serv, Washington, DC 20433 USA. World Bank, Washington, DC 20433 USA. RP Baranzini, A, Univ Geneva, Fac Econ & Social Sci, 40 Bld Pont Arve, CH-1211 Geneva 4, Switzerland. AB Recent studies on global warming have introduced the inherent uncertainties associated with the costs and benefits of climate policies and have often shown that abatement policies are likely to be less aggressive or postponed in comparison to those resulting from traditional cost-benefit analyses (CBA). Yet, those studies have failed to include the possibility of sudden climate catastrophes. The aim of this paper is to account simultaneously for possible continuous and discrete damages resulting from global warming, and to analyse their implications on the optimal path of abatement policies. Our approach is related to the new literature on investment under uncertainty, and relies on some recent developments of the real option in which we incorporated negative jumps (climate catastrophes) in the stochastic process corresponding to the net benefits associated with the abatement policies. The impacts of continuous and discrete climatic risks can therefore be considered separately. Our numerical applications lead to two main conclusions: (i) gradual, continuous uncertainty in the global warming process is likely to delay the adoption of abatement policies as found in previous studies, with respect to the standard CBA; however (ii) the possibility of climate catastrophes accelerates the implementation of these policies as their net discounted benefits increase significantly. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. CR 1998, SUISSE REASSURANCES *IPCC, 1990, SCI ASSESSMENT CLIMA WATSON RT, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, V1, P1 *IPCC, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 ARROW KJ, 1990, IPCC REPORT WORKING, P52 BARANZINI A, 1995, 1417 WORLD BANK POL BARONEADESI G, 1987, J FINANC, V42, P301 BATES DS, 1991, J FINANC, V46, P1009 BIRGE JR, 1996, ENERGY J, V17, P79 BLACK F, 1973, J POLITICAL EC, V81, P637 CARRARO C, 1993, J PUBLIC ECON, V52, P309 CHESNEY M, 2002, IN PRESS J EC DYNAMI CHESNEY M, 2002, VALUATION AM OPTION CLINE WR, 1992, EC GLOBAL WARMING DIXIT A, 1992, J ECON PERSPECT, V6, P107 FALK I, 1993, J ENVIRON ECON MANAG, V25, P76 FISCHER BS, 1996, IPCC 2 ASSESSMENT RE, P397 GJERDE J, 1999, RESOUR ENERGY ECON, V21, P289 GOLDEMBERG J, 1996, IPCC 2 ASSESSMENT RE, P17 HANEMANN WM, 1989, J ENVIRON ECON MANAG, V16, P23 KOLSTAD CD, 1994, ENERG POLICY, V22, P771 MADDISON D, 1995, ENERG POLICY, V23, P337 MCDONALD R, 1986, Q J ECON, V101, P707 MUNASINGHE M, 1996, IPCC 2 ASSESSMENT RE, P149 NORDHAUS WD, 1991, AM ECON REV, V81, P146 NORDHAUS WD, 1991, ECON J, V101, P920 NORDHAUS WD, 1993, J ECON PERSPECT, V7, P11 NORDHAUS WD, 1994, MANAGING GLOBAL COMM PEARCE DW, 1996, IPCC 2 ASSESSMENT RE, P180 PECK SC, 1993, RESOUR ENERGY ECON, V15, P71 PINDYCK RS, 1991, J ECON LIT, V29, P1110 PINDYCK RS, 1999, IRREVERSIBILITY TIMI REYNOLDS P, 1999, TIME 0222, P54 SCHELLING TC, 1995, ENERG POLICY, V23, P395 SCHIMMELPFENNIG D, 1995, ENERG ECON, V17, P311 TOL RSJ, 1999, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V41, P351 TSUR Y, 1996, J ECON DYN CONTROL, V20, P1289 YOHE GW, 1996, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V2, P87 ZHANG XL, 1995, MATH COMPUT SIMULAT, V38, P151 NR 39 TC 2 J9 ENERG POLICY BP 691 EP 701 PY 2003 PD JUN VL 31 IS 8 GA 660CC UT ISI:000181815400001 ER PT J AU Sellen, DW TI Nutritional consequences of wealth differentials in East African pastoralists: The case of the Datoga of northern Tanzania SO HUMAN ECOLOGY LA English DT Review C1 Emory Univ, Dept Anthropol, Atlanta, GA 30322 USA. RP Sellen, DW, Emory Univ, Dept Anthropol, 1557 Pierce Dr NE, Atlanta, GA 30322 USA. AB Among African pastoralists evidence that wealth is associated with other measures of household success is scant and the significance of wealth differentials for family welfare remains poorly understood. Predictions that wealth in livestock is associated with increased adequacy of household food supply and with improved child nutrition are tested with longitudinal data on herd size, household composition, food supply, and anthropometric status collected in 1992 for a sample of traditional Datoga households (n=20) living in the Eyasi basin in northern Tanzania. Although a majority subsisted below poverty cutoffs estimated for east African pastoral populations, there was large variation among households in measures of wealth and resource availability. Individuals in relatively wealthy households did not appear to benefit either in terms of adequacy of household food supply or in terms of average growth performance of young children. Theoretical and methodological challenges in the study of the relationship between wealth and health in nomadic pastoralists are discussed. 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ANNU REV NUTR, V6, P495 WATERLOW JC, 1990, AM J CLIN NUTR, V51, P259 WESTERN D, 1986, HUM ECOL, V14, P77 WIDDOWSON EM, 1985, NUTR ADAPTATION MAN, P97 NR 126 TC 0 J9 HUM ECOL BP 529 EP 570 PY 2003 PD DEC VL 31 IS 4 GA 748BG UT ISI:000186841300002 ER PT J AU Sapountzaki, K TI Coping with seismic vulnerability: small manufacturing firms in western Athens SO DISASTERS LA English DT Article C1 Harokopion Univ Athens, Dept Geog, Athens, Greece. RP Sapountzaki, K, Harokopion Univ Athens, Dept Geog, Athens, Greece. AB This paper attempts to contribute to international discourse on the responsibility of macro structures ( economic and political) and private agencies for the production and distribution of vulnerability. It does so by focusing on an individual economic entity, small manufacturing firms (SMFs), in a specific location, western Athens, Greece. By evaluating the losses that SMFs sustained in the earthquake of 7 September 1999, the paper points to variations in vulnerability levels among such firms and highlights the `sources' of vulnerability they confront. Furthermore, the SMF recovery cycle is systematically monitored in parallel with relevant public policies and state reactions to private recovery methods. 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Canadian Forest Prod Canfor, Vancouver, BC V6C 2C1, Canada. Busby & Associates, Vancouver, BC V6B 2Y5, Canada. QuestAir Technol Inc, Burnaby, BC V5J 4R8, Canada. Vancouver Int Airport Author, Commun & Environm Affairs, Richmond, BC V7B 1Y7, Canada. BC Hydro & Power Author, Sustainabil, Vancouver, BC V6B 5R3, Canada. Int Ctr Sustainable Cities, Vancouver, BC V6J 1P2, Canada. RP Robinson, J, Univ British Columbia, Inst Resources Environm & Sustainabil, 2202 Main Mall, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z4, Canada. AB Manifold linkages exist between climate change and sustainable development. Although these are starting to receive attention in the climate exchange literature, the focus has typically been on examining sustainable development through a climate change lens, rather than vice versa. And there has been little systematic examination of how these linkages may be fostered in practice. This paper examines climate change through a sustainable development lens. To illustrate how this might change the approach to climate change issues, it reports on the findings of a panel of business, local government, and academic representatives in British Columbia, Canada, who were appointed to advise the provincial government on climate change policy. The panel found that sustainable development may offer a significantly more fruitful way to pursue climate policy goals than climate policy itself. The paper discusses subsequent climate change developments in the province and makes suggestions as how best to pursue such a sustainability approach in British Columbia and other jurisdictions. 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RP Endfield, GH, Univ Nottingham, Sch Geog, Univ Pk, Nottingham NG7 2RD, England. AB Unusually severe or prolonged drought ranks among the most devastating and calamitous of all extreme climate events, contributing to wildfires, crop failure, livestock death, food shortages and famine. The response of human activities and the natural environment to such historical weather perturbations provides a guide to where the most critical sensitivities to future climate changes may lie (McCarthy et al., 2001, Climatic change 2001: Impact adaptation, and vulnerability', from 3rd Assesment Report of IPCC). The reconstruction of regional climatic histories and investigations of the impacts of - and social response to - extreme droughts in history are thus of crucial significance if we are to understand and anticipate the potential repercussions of future events (Wigley, 1985, Nature 316, 106-107; Grove and Conterio, 1995, Clim. Change 30, 223). Chihuahua, in the arid Northwest of Mexico, is one of the most seriously and frequently drought affected regions of the country (Garcia, 2000, available at www.sequia.edu.mx/proyectos/vulnera.html). Prolonged drought in the 1930s, 1950s and 1990s contributed to water scarcity, harvest failure, illness, livestock disease, abandonment and water conflict and served to highlight the particular vulnerability of agrarian society in this region to climatic variability (Sandoval, 2003, Ingeneria Hidraulica en Mexico 18(2), 133-155). Recent investigations using tree ring analysis have identified several phases of such prolonged drought over the last seven centuries. In this paper we use archival documents to investigate the impacts of such periods in late colonial Chihuahua and to explore how society in the region responded to and coped with them. CR *ISDR, 2002, DROUGHT LIV RISK INT *NOAA, INT TREE RING DAT BA ABOITES L, 1994, BREVE HIST CHIHUAHUA ACUNASOTO R, 2000, AM J TROP MED HYG, V62, P733 ACUNASOTO R, 2002, EMERG INFECT DIS, V8, P360 ALLAN RJ, 1996, NINO SO OSCILLATION ALVAREZ S, 1990, 2 C HIST REG COMP U, P141 BAETHGEN WE, 1997, CLIMATE RES, V9, P1 BALLARD C, 1986, J INTERDISCIPL HIST, V2, P359 BANCROFT HH, 1884, WORKS H HOWE BANCROF, V15 BARRIENDOS M, 1997, HOLOCENE, V7, P105 BERZ G, 1997, P WORKSH IND IND CLI BURNS BT, 1983, THESIS U ARIZONA TUS BUTZER EK, 2003, ANN C ASS AM GEOGR N BUTZER KW, 1997, QUATERN INT, V43, P161 CAMUFFO D, 1992, CLIMATE AD 1500, P143 CAVAZOS T, 1990, INT J CLIMATOL, V10, P377 CHEVALIER F, 1952, FORMACION GRANDES DO CLEAVELAND MK, 2003, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V59, P369 CONDE C, 1997, CLIMATE RES, V9, P17 COOPER D, 1965, EPIDEMIC DIS MEXICO COPE RD, 1994, LIMITS RACIAL DOMINA CRAMAUSSEL C, 1990, 2 C HIST REG COMP U, P115 CRAMAUSSEL C, 1990, PROVINCIA SANTA BARB CURTIN CG, 2002, ENVIRON SCI POLICY, V5, P55 DEARREGUI DL, 1946, DESCRIPCION NUEVA GA DETTINGER MD, 1998, J CLIMATE, V11, P3095 DEVACA NC, 1958, VIAJES VIAJEROS VIAJ, P17 DIAZ SC, 2002, CLIMATE RES, V22, P237 EASTERLIING DR, 2001, B AM METEOROLOGICAL, V81, P417 ENDFIELD GH, 1997, ENVIRON HIST, V3, P255 ENDFIELD GH, 2002, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V92, P727 ENDFIELD GH, 2004, J HIST GEOGR, V30, P249 ESCOBAR DAM, 1940, DESCRIPICION GEOGRAF FLORESCANO E, 1976, ORIGEN DESAROLLO PRO FLORESCANO E, 1980, NEXOS, V32, P9 FLORESCANO E, 1981, ARCH GEN NACION FLORESCANO E, 1995, BREVE HIST SEQUIA ME GARCIA SJ, 2000, ANAL VULNERABILIDAD GARCIAACOSTA V, 1993, RED, V1, P2 GRIFFEN WB, 1979, INDIAN ASSIMILATION GROVE JM, 1983, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V5, P265 GROVE JM, 1995, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V30, P223 HIGGINS RW, 1999, J CLIMATE, V12, P653 HODELL DA, 1995, NATURE, V375, P391 HOUGHTON JT, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 JAUREGUI E, 1976, GEOFISICA INT, V16, P45 JAUREGUI E, 1979, B I GEOGRAFIA UNAM, V9, P39 KARL TR, 1999, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V42, P309 KELLEY JC, 1992, HSIT GEN CHIHUAHUA, V1 KIM TW, 2002, WATER INT, V27, P420 KUNDZEWICZ ZW, 2000, WATER INT, V25, P66 KUTZBACH JE, 1985, NATURE, V317, P130 LADURIE L, 1983, HIST CLIMAT DEPUIS M LAFERRIERE JE, 1992, ECOL FOOD NUTR, V28, P1 LAFORA N, 1939, RELACION VIJAE HIZO LANDSBERG H, 1980, J INTERDISCIPLINARY, V10, P631 LIVERMAN DM, 1993, REGIONS GLOBAL WARMI LIVERMAN DM, 1990, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V80, P49 LIVERMAN DM, 1999, NAT RESOUR J, V39, P99 LOPES MAD, 2001, HIST MEXICANA, V50, P513 MAGANA VO, 1999, IMPACTOS NINO MEXICO MALVIDO E, 1973, HIST MEXICANA, V89, P96 MARR JS, 2000, MED HIST, V44, P341 MARTIN CE, 1996, GOVERNANCE SOC COLON MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 METCALFE SE, 1987, GEOGR J, V153, P211 METCALFE SE, 1997, J PALEOLIMNOL, V17, P155 MEYER WB, 1998, HUMAN CHOICE CLIMATE, P218 MIRANDA J, 1871, COLLECCION DOCUMENTO, V16 NAYLOR TH, 1986, PRESIDIO MILITIA NO NEUMANN SIJ, 1969, REVOLTES INDIENS TAR OHARA SL, 1993, GEOGR J, V159, P51 OHARA SL, 1995, HOLOCENE, V5, P485 OUWENEEL A, 1996, SHADOWS ANAHUAC ECOL QUINN WH, 1987, J GEOPHYS RES-OCEANS, V92, P14449 RILEY JD, 2002, AMERICAS, V58, P355 RIVERA SL, 1999, DEFEND OUR WATER BLO ROMERAL PT, 1937, BIBLIO MEXICANA OBRA, V7 SANDOVAL CAE, 2003, ING HIDRAUL MEX, V18, P133 SANTIAGO M, 1996, J ARIZONA HIST, V37, P283 SCHMIDT RH, 1992, HIST GEN CHIHUAHUA, V1, P47 SIMPSON LB, 1966, MANY MEXICOS TUTINO J, 1986, INSURRECTION REVOLUT WALLEN CC, 1955, GEOGRAFISKA ANN, V37, P51 WEST RC, 1949, IBEROAMERICANA, V30 WIGLEY TM, 1981, CLIMATE HIST WIGLEY TML, 1985, NATURE, V316, P106 YATES PLL, 1981, MEXICOS AGR DILEMMA NR 89 TC 0 J9 CLIMATIC CHANGE BP 391 EP 419 PY 2006 PD APR VL 75 IS 4 GA 046ED UT ISI:000237793300001 ER PT J AU Pennington, DW Potting, J Finnveden, G Lindeijer, E Jolliet, O Rydberg, T Rebitzer, G TI Life cycle assessment Part 2: Current impact assessment practice SO ENVIRONMENT INTERNATIONAL LA English DT Review C1 Commiss European Communities, Joint Res Ctr, Inst Environm & Sustainabil, Soil & Waste Unit, I-21020 Ispra, Italy. Univ Groningen, Ctr Energy & Environm Studies, IVEM, NL-9747 AG Groningen, Netherlands. Royal Inst Technol, Ctr Environm Strategies Res, Fms, KTH, SE-10044 Stockholm, Sweden. TNO, Ind Technol, NL-5600 HE Eindhoven, Netherlands. Swiss Fed Inst Technol, Life Cycle Syst Grp, GECOS, ENAC, CH-1015 Lausanne, Switzerland. RP Potting, J, Commiss European Communities, Joint Res Ctr, Inst Environm & Sustainabil, Soil & Waste Unit, TP 460, I-21020 Ispra, Italy. AB Providing our society with goods and services contributes to a wide range of environmental impacts. Waste generation, emissions and the consumption of resources occur at many stages in a product's life cycle-from raw material extraction, energy acquisition, production and manufacturing, use, reuse, recycling, through to ultimate disposal. These all contribute to impacts such as climate change, stratospheric ozone depletion, photooxidant formation (smog), eutrophication, acidification, toxicological stress on human health and ecosystems, the depletion of resources and noise-among others. The need exists to address these product-related contributions more holistically and in an integrated manner, providing complimentary insights to those of regulatory/process-oriented methodologies. A previous article (Part 1, Rebitzer et al., 2004) outlined how to define and model a product's life cycle in current practice, as well as the methods and tools that are available for compiling the associated waste, emissions and resource consumption data into a life cycle inventory. This article highlights how practitioners and researchers from many domains have come together to provide indicators for the different impacts attributable to products in the life cycle impact assessment (LCIA) phase of life cycle assessment (LCA). (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 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VROM SCHMITZ S, 1999, 14042 ISO SCHWEINLE J, 2001, 202 BFH SEPPALA J, 2002, J IND ECOLOGY, V5, P45 SEPPALA J, 2003, IN PRESS INT J LCA SLEESWIJK AW, 2001, ENVIRON SCI POLLUT R, V8, P1 SOLBERGJOHANSEN B, 1998, THESIS U SURREY GUIL STEEN B, 1999, SYSTEMATIC APPROACH, P4 STEEN B, 1999, SYSTEMATIC APPROACH, P5 STUMM W, 1981, AQUATIC CHEM INTRO E THISSEN UMJ, 1999, 173 U NIJM DEP ENV S TRUSTY WB, 1997, ECOLOGICAL EFFECTS R UCHIDA H, 2002, EC 2002 C P NOV 6 8 VANDENBERG NW, 1999, 152 CML CTR ENV SCI VANEK R, 2002, 4202002943 TNO IND T VOLKWEIN S, 1996, INT J LCA, V1, P182 WEIDEMA BP, 2001, PHYS IMPACTS LAND US WENZEL H, 1997, ENV ASSESSMENT PRODU, V1 NR 144 TC 4 J9 ENVIRON INT BP 721 EP 739 PY 2004 PD JUL VL 30 IS 5 GA 821ZJ UT ISI:000221501800012 ER PT J AU Gallopin, GC TI Linkages between vulnerability, resilience, and adaptive capacity SO GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS LA English DT Article C1 UN, ECLAC, Santiago, Chile. RP Gallopin, GC, UN, ECLAC, Casilla 179 D,Avda Hammarskjold S-N, Santiago, Chile. AB This article uses a systemic perspective to identify and analyze the conceptual relations among vulnerability, resilience, and adaptive capacity within socio-ecological systems (SES). Since different intellectual traditions use the terms in different, sometimes incompatible, ways, they emerge as strongly related but unclear in the precise nature of their relationships. A set of diagnostic questions is proposed regarding the specification of the terms to develop a shared conceptual framework for the natural and social dimensions of global change. Also, development of a general theory of change in SESs is suggested as an important agenda item for research on global change. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *IPCC, 2001, TECHN SUMM CLIM CHAN ADGER WN, 2000, PROG HUM GEOG, V24, P347 ADGER WN, 2006, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V16, P268 ANDERIES JM, 2004, ECOLOGY SOC, V9 ASHBY WR, 1956, INTRO CYBERNETICS BERKES F, 1998, LINKING SOCIAL ECOLO, V1, P1 BUTENIN NV, 1965, ELEMENTS THEORY NONL CARPENTER SR, 1999, CONSERV ECOL, V3, P1 CARPENTER SR, 2001, ECOSYSTEMS, V4, P765 DOBZHANSKY T, 1968, POPULATION BIOL EVOL, P109 FOLKE C, 2002, RESILIENCE SUSTAINAB FOLKE C, 2006, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V16, P253 GALLOPIN G, 2001, INT J SOCIAL SCI, V168, P219 GALLOPIN GC, 1989, INT SOC SCI J, V41, P375 GALLOPIN GC, 1991, INT SOC SCI J, V130, P707 GALLOPIN GC, 2003, EC COMMISSION LATIN, P2 GUNDERSON LH, 2000, ANNU REV ECOL SYST, V31, P425 GUNDERSON LH, 2002, PANARCHY UNDERSTANDI, V1, P1 HAHN W, 1967, STABILITY MOTION HOLLING CS, 1973, ANNUAL REV ECOLOGY S, V4, P1 HOLLING CS, 1985, SCI PRAXIS COMPLEXIT, P217 HOLLING CS, 1986, SUSTAINABLE DEV BIOS, V1, P1 HOLLING CS, 1996, ENG ECOLOGICAL CONST, P31 JANSSEN MA, 2006, GLOBAL ENV CHANGE, V16, P240 JEN E, 2003, COMPLEXITY, V8, P12 KASPERSON JX, 2005, SOCIAL CONTOURS RISK, V2, P245 LUERS AL, 2005, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V15, P214 NICOLIS G, 1977, SELF ORG NONEQUILIBR NICOLIS G, 1989, EXPLORING COMPLEXITY PIMM SL, 1984, NATURE, V307, P321 PRIGOGINE I, 1979, NOUVELLE ALLIANCE ME SCHELLNHUBER HJ, 1998, EARTH SYSTEM ANAL IN SMIT B, 2006, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V16, P282 SMITHERS J, 1997, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V7, P129 THOM R, 1972, STABILITE STRUCTUREL TOMOVIC R, 1963, SENSITIVITY ANAL DYN TU PNV, 1994, DYNAMICAL SYSTEMS IN TURNER BL, 2003, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V100, P8074 VANDERLEEUW SE, 2001, IHDP UPDATE WALKER BH, 2004, ECOLOGY SOC, V9, P5 YOUNG OR, 2005, I DYNAMICS RESILIENC YOUNG OR, 2006, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V16, P304 NR 42 TC 2 J9 GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANGE BP 293 EP 303 PY 2006 PD AUG VL 16 IS 3 GA 073OJ UT ISI:000239752200007 ER PT J AU Tao, F Yokozawa, M Hayashi, Y Lin, E TI Changes in agricultural water demands and soil moisture in China over the last half-century and their effects on agricultural production SO AGRICULTURAL AND FOREST METEOROLOGY LA English DT Article C1 Chinese Acad Agr Sci, Inst Agr Environm & Sustainable Dev, Beijing 100081, Peoples R China. Natl Inst Agroenvironm Sci, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 3058604, Japan. RP Tao, F, Chinese Acad Agr Sci, Inst Agr Environm & Sustainable Dev, Beijing 100081, Peoples R China. AB It has become obvious in recent years that water is the most critical resource for Chinese agricultural ecosystems. Changes in agricultural water demands and soil moisture have significant implications for China's water supply, the potential for drought and flood, and agricultural production. In the studies, we explored the changing trends in agricultural water demands, the changing trends and variability in soil moisture associated with both drought and increased surface runoff in Chinese croplands during the last half-century, and their impacts on agricultural production. We plotted temporal and spatial changes in agricultural water demands, soil moisture, soil-moisture variability, soil-moisture deficit, yield index, and surface runoff on a grid of 0.5degrees resolution. We found a trend toward agricultural water demands increasing, soil drying and significant changes in soil-moisture variability on the North China Plain and the Northeast China Plain. There was a significant decrease in agricultural water demands and a significant increase in soil-moisture levels in Southwest China, and a generally insignificant increase or decrease trend in agricultural water demands and soil-moisture levels in Southeast China. These changes in agricultural water demands and soil-moisture levels had corresponding impacts on soil-moisture deficit, and consequently on agricultural production. Increased surface runoff was found in the mountainous areas of the southwest and northeast, and in some areas along the South Coast. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. CR *CHIN STAT FLOOD C, 1997, FLOOD DROUGHT DIS CH *COMP COMM STAT AT, 1989, AGR ATL CHIN, P34 *FAO, 1992, 46 FAO LAND WAT DEV *FAO, 1992, REP EXP CONS REV FAO MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 *US WAT SECT ASS T, 2000, POT IMP CLIM CHANG V BLACK JN, 1956, ARCH METEOROL GEOPHY, V7, P165 BUDYKO MI, 1956, GIDROMETEOROLOGICHES, P255 CHANG JH, 1970, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V60, P340 DUNNE KA, 1996, INT J CLIMATOL, V16, P841 EVANS TE, 1996, GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANG FEDDEMA JJ, 1998, CLIMATE RES, V10, P127 FENG Q, 1999, AMBIO, V28, P202 GLEICK PH, 1987, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V10, P137 GONG DY, 2000, CLIMATE RES, V16, P51 GREGORY JM, 1997, J CLIMATE, V10, P662 HEILIG GK, 1999, CHINA FOOD CAN CHINA KRON W, 1998, UBERSCHWEMUNGEN CHIN, V12, P739 NASH LL, 1993, EPA230R93009 NEW M, 1999, J CLIMATE, V12, P829 NEW M, 2000, J CLIMATE, V13, P2217 PENMAN HL, 1948, P ROY SOC LOND A MAT, V193, P120 PRESS WH, 1992, NUMERICAL RECIPES FO, P107 QIAN WH, 2001, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V50, P419 STORR D, 1978, COMP DAILY SNOWMELT TAO S, 1991, NDP039 ORNLCDIAC47 THOMAS A, 2000, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V102, P71 WETHERALD RT, 1999, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V43, P495 WILLMOTT CJ, 1985, J CLIMATOL, V5, P589 ZHENG Z, 1994, AEZ ASIA, P79 NR 30 TC 0 J9 AGR FOREST METEOROL BP 251 EP 261 PY 2003 PD SEP 30 VL 118 IS 3-4 GA 724ZA UT ISI:000185517100008 ER PT J AU Abdi, K TI The early development of pastoralism in the Central Zagros Mountains SO JOURNAL OF WORLD PREHISTORY LA English DT Review C1 Dartmouth Coll, Dept Anthropol, Hanover, NH 03755 USA. RP Abdi, K, Dartmouth Coll, Dept Anthropol, 6047 Silsby Hall, Hanover, NH 03755 USA. AB This paper explores the changes in early for is of pastoralism in the West Central Zagros Mountains from village-based herding in the Neolithic period to initial stages in the formation of full-fledged nomadic pastoralism by the Late Chalcolithic period. It has been argued that the initial development of pastoralism in the Central Zagros Mountains should he viewed as an adaptive strategy to a highland environment with limited and dispersed resources in order to supplement a primarily agricultural village-based economy. With expansion of the agricultural regime, the distance to be traveled to pastures by herders became greater, and as a consequence, the organization of labor involved in herding had to be modified to meet the more complex task of moving sizable herds over larger areas. The empirical evidence for the assessment of hypotheses proposed in this paper comes from archaeological fieldwork in the Islamabad Plain in the Zagros Mountains in western Iran, as well as previous archaeological and ethnographic research in the region. 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ZIEGLER C, 1953, KEERAMIK QALA HAGGI ZOHARY M, 1973, GEOBOTANICAL FDN MID NR 198 TC 0 J9 J WORLD PREHIST BP 395 EP 448 PY 2003 PD DEC VL 17 IS 4 GA 813UK UT ISI:000220931800002 ER PT J AU Bernard, SM Ebi, KL TI Comments on the process and product of the health impacts assessment component of the national assessment of the potential consequences of climate variability and change for the United States SO ENVIRONMENTAL HEALTH PERSPECTIVES LA English DT Article C1 Johns Hopkins Univ, Sch Hyg & Publ Hlth, Dept Environm Hlth Sci, Baltimore, MD 21205 USA. EPRI, Palo Alto, CA USA. RP Bernard, SM, Johns Hopkins Univ, Sch Hyg & Publ Hlth, Dept Environm Hlth Sci, 615 N Wolfe St,Room 7041, Baltimore, MD 21205 USA. AB In 1990 Congress formed the U.S. Global Change Research Program and required it to conduct a periodic national assessment of the potential impacts of climate variability and change on all regions and select economic/resource sectors of the United States. Between 1998 and 2000, a team of experts collaborated on a health impacts assessment that formed the basis for the first National Assessment's analysis of the potential impacts of climate on human health. The health impacts assessment was integrated across a number of health disciplines and involved a search for and qualitative expert judgment review of data on the potential links between climate events and population health. Accomplishments included identification of vulnerable populations, adaptation strategies, research needs, and data gaps. Experts, stakeholders, and the public were involved. The assessment is reported in five articles in this issue; a summary was published in the April 2000 issue of Environmental Health Perspectives. The assessment report will enhance understanding of ways human health might be affected by various climate-associated stresses and of the need for further empirical and predictive research. Improved understanding and communication of the significance and inevitability of uncertainties in such an assessment are critical to further research and policy development. 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RP Huigen, MGA, Leiden Univ, NL-2300 RA Leiden, Netherlands. AB This paper reports on the socio-economic effects and coping mechanisms of farm households affected by super typhoon Imbudo in San Mariano, Isabela, the Philippines. Estimations of economic losses are given based on 150 interviews among the rural population. The relative loss per crop as part of the annual household income for yellow corn, banana, and rice were 64%, 24%, and 27%, respectively. Unexpectedly, most farm households did not change their agricultural strategies and continued with "business as usual" (78%). The main explanation for this lack of adaptation is found in the cultural and societal structure of farm households and their traders. This paper concludes with a short-term and long-term vulnerability and resilience analysis for the households, the socio-agricultural system, and the ecological system. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *ACT, 2003, SUP TYPH HITS PHIL 2 *MAN TIM, 2003, ITS FIN HAR DAM RIS *NSO, 2001, PHIL YB CENS 2000 *UNDRO, 1979, DIS PREV MIT, V7 *VIRT INF CTR, 2003, TYPH HAR HITS PHIL BANKOFF G, 1999, PACIFIC REV BANKOFF G, 2003, CULTURES DIS SOC NAT BENSON C, 1997, 99 ODI BENSON C, 2004, DISASTER RISK MANAGE, V4 BENSON C, 2004, MEASURING MITIGATION BLAIKIE PM, 1994, RISK NATURAL HAZARDS, V1, P1 BULL R, 1994, DISASTER EC DISASTER DEGROOT WT, 1992, ENV SCI THEORY CONCE DELNINNO C, 2001, 122 IFPRI DELNINNO C, 2003, WORLD DEV, V31, P1221 EISENSTADT SN, 1981, POLITICAL CLIENTELIS HUIGEN MGA, 2004, J ENVIRON MANAGE, V72, P5 JOVEL R, 1989, EC SOCIAL CONSEQUENC MCGUIGAN C, 2002, POVERTY CLIMATE CHAN OVERMARS KP, 2005, INT J GEOGR INF SYST, V19, P1 PERSSON GA, 2003, SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAI, P209 POLET G, 1991, 3 U LEID RUTTEN R, 2001, J HUMANITIES SOCIAL, V157, P629 TOBIN GA, 1999, ENV HAZARDS, V1, P13 TWIGG J, 2001, 2 BENF GREIG HAZ RES VANDENTOP GM, 1998, THESIS CTR ENV SCI L VANDERWERF I, 1994, 38 U LEID IS STAT U VANWEERD M, 2002, CROCODILES, P97 WILLIAM HS, GERMAN TRAVELERS COR WISNER B, 2001, UN CHRONICLE, V3, P6 ZAPATAMARTI R, 1997, P EXP CONS METH BRUS NR 31 TC 0 J9 WORLD DEVELOP BP 2116 EP 2136 PY 2006 PD DEC VL 34 IS 12 GA 118DI UT ISI:000242921900008 ER PT J AU Kelly, PM Adger, WN TI Theory and practice in assessing vulnerability to climate change and facilitating adaptation SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 Univ E Anglia, Climat Res Unit, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. Univ E Anglia, Sch Environm Sci, Ctr Social & Econ Res Global Environm, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. RP Kelly, PM, Univ E Anglia, Climat Res Unit, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. AB We discuss approaches to the assessment of vulnerability to climate variability and change and attempt to clarify the relationship between the concepts of vulnerability and adaptation. In search of a robust, policy-relevant framework, we define vulnerability in terms of the capacity of individuals and social groups to respond to, that is, to cope with, recover from or adapt to, any external stress placed on their livelihoods and well-being. The approach that we develop places the social and economic well-being of society at the centre of the analysis, focussing on the socio-economic and institutional constraints that limit the capacity to respond. From this perspective, the vulnerability or security of any group is determined by resource availability and by the entitlement of individuals and groups to call on these resources. We illustrate the application of this approach through the results of field research in coastal Vietnam, highlighting shifting patterns of vulnerability to tropical storm impacts at the household- and community-level in response to the current process of economic renovation and drawing conclusions concerning means of supporting the adaptive response to climate stress. Four priorities for action are identified that would improve the situation of the most exposed members of many communities: poverty reduction; risk-spreading through income diversification; respecting common property management rights; and promoting collective security. A sustainable response, we argue, must also address the underlying causes of social vulnerability, including the inequitable distribution of resources. 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Univ Wageningen & Res Ctr, Environm Syst Anal Grp, NL-6700 AA Wageningen, Netherlands. Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res, Dept Global Change & Nat syst, D-14412 Potsdam, Germany. RP Metzger, MJ, Univ Wageningen & Res Ctr, Plant Product Syst Grp, POB 430, NL-6700 AK Wageningen, Netherlands. AB Over the next century, society will increasingly be confronted with the impacts of global change (e.g. pollution, land use changes, and climate change). Multiple scenarios provide us with a range of possible changes in socio-economic trends, land uses and climate (i.e. exposure) and allow us to assess the response of ecosystems and changes in the services they provide (i.e. potential impacts). Since vulnerability to global change is less when society is able to adapt, it is important to provide decision makers with tools that will allow them to assess and compare the vulnerability of different sectors and regions to global change, taking into account exposure and sensitivity, as well as adaptive capacity. This paper presents a method that allows quantitative spatial analyses of the vulnerability of the human-environment system on a European scale. It is a first step towards providing stakeholders and policy makers with a spatially explicit portfolio of comparable projections of ecosystem services, providing a basis for discussion on the sustainable management of Europe's natural resources. 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RP Biersack, A, Univ Oregon, Dept Anthropol, Eugene, OR 97403 USA. AB Lying between the Huh and Paiela peoples of the Papua New Guinea highlands, Mt. Kare, the site of a gold rush from 1988 to 1990, presently inspires millenarian speculations about an imminent cosmic revolution. Mt. Kare was traditionally a ritual site where pigs were sacrificed to Taiyundika, a totemic python, to promote the fertility of plant, animal, and human species. Today it is where gold is mined in pursuit of unprecedented riches and millenarian transformations. Although sacrifices are no longer conducted at Mt. Kare, the python still has some salience for Paielas, who consider the gold to be the flesh of the totemic python. Blending Christianity with traditional cosmology, Paielas interpret the finding of the gold as a millenarian sign. As an ancestral figure who guarantees the continuing fertility of the earth in exchange for pork sacrifices, the python stands at the core of Paiela constructions of nature and humanity's position within it. Paiela totemism is explored for what it can teach us about an indigenous symbolic ecology and how "local knowledge" or a "cognized model" can inflect capital-intensive resource development at a time of ostensible globalization. The ecology of Mt. Kare gold mining must be sensitive to intercultural processes and how global flows (of ideologies, technologies, and capital) are mediated by vernacular constructions. 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RP Smit, B, UNIV GUELPH,DEPT GEOG,GUELPH,ON N1G 2W1,CANADA. AB The implications of climate change for agriculture and food are global concerns, and they are very important for China, The country depends on an agricultural system which has evolved over thousands of years to intensively exploit environmental conditions. The pressures on the resource base are accentuated by the prospect of climate change, This paper synthesizes information from a variety of studies on Chinese agriculture and climate. Historical studies document the impacts of past climate changes and extremes, and the types of adjustments which have occurred, the vulnerability of Chinese agriculture to climate change, Climate change scenarios are assessed relative to the current distribution of agro-climatic regions and systems, Notwithstanding the enhancing effects of warming and elevated CO2 levels, expected moisture deficits and uncertain changes in the timing and frequency of critical conditions indicate that there are serious threats to the stability and adaptability of China's food production system. 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RP Pandey, N, Firest Dept, Jaipur 302005, Rajasthan, India. AB The Kyoto Protocol of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change seeks to achieve climate stability and sustainable development through global cooperation. Even with spectacular advances in climate science, projected economic and health benefits of greenhouse gas mitigation, and presence of all the key elements for an effective treaty in the Kyoto Protocol, climate change negotiations remain inconclusive. Arguably, this is so because a widespread concern on equity is yet to be resolved. Here I reexamine the equity in climate change treaty. Political leadership, scientific community and civil society in several nations have maintained that the democratic norms for climate governance are a prerequisite for crafting a successful climate change treaty. Principle of equal p er capita emission entitlements is now emerging as the key option beyond current impasse. Although not required under the Kyoto Protocol, several developing nations are taking responsible action to mitigate climate change. Principle of equal per capita emission entitlements is a just solution to successfully implement climate treaty aimed at climate change mitigation, adaptation and sustainable development. Without a full and unequivocal commitment to equity and democratic governance by a cohesive humanity, any international climate change treaty will have only limited utility. 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Manchester Metropolitan Univ, Ctr Policy Modelling, Manchester M1 3GH, Lancs, England. EAWAG, Dept Syst Anal Integrated Assessment & Modelling, CH-8600 Dubendorf, Switzerland. RP Downing, TE, Univ Oxford, Environm Change Inst, 1A Mansfield Rd, Oxford OX1 3SZ, England. AB Integrated assessment models (IAMs) have been widely applied to questions of climate change policy-such as the effects of abating greenhouse gas emissions, balancing impacts, adaptation and mitigation costs, understanding processes of adaptation, and evaluating the potential for technological solutions. In almost all cases, the social dimensions of climate policy are poorly represented. Econometric models look for efficient optimal solutions. Decision making perspectives might reflect broadscale cultural theory, but not the diversity of cognitive models in practice. Technological change is often ignored or exogenous, and without understanding of stakeholder strategies for innovation and diffusion. Policy measures are proposed from idealised perspectives, with little understanding of the constraints of individual decision makers. We suggest a set of criteria for IAMs that can be used to evaluate the choice and structure of models with respect to their suitability for understanding key climate change debates. The criteria are discussed for three classes of models-optimising econometric models, dynamic simulation models and a proposed agent-based strategy. A prototype agent-based IAM is reported to demonstrate the usefulness and power of the agent based approach and to indicate concretely how that approach meets the criteria for good IAMs and to complex social issues more generally. 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RP Farbotko, C, Univ Tasmania, Sch Geog & Environm Studies, Private Bag 78, Hobart, Tas 7001, Australia. AB Tuvalu, a place whose image in the 'West' is as a small island state, insignificant and remote on the world stage, is becoming remarkably prominent in connection with the contemporary issue of climate change-related sea-level rise. My aim in this paper is to advance understanding of the linkages between climate change and island places, by exploring the discursive negotiation of the identity of geographically distant islands and island peoples in the Australian news media. Specifically, I use discourse analytic methods to critically explore how, and to what effects, various representations of the Tuvaluan islands and people in an Australian broadsheet, the Sydney Morning Herald, emphasize difference between Australia and Tuvalu. My hypothesis is that implicating climate change in the identity of people and place can constitute Tuvaluans as 'tragic victims' of environmental displacement, marginalizing discourses of adaptation for Tuvaluans and other inhabitants of low-lying islands, and silencing alternative constructions of Tuvaluan identity that could emphasize resilience and resourcefulness. By drawing attention to the problematic ways that island identities are constituted in climate change discourse in the news media, I advocate a more critical approach to the production and consumption of representations of climate change. CR *AUSTR BUR STAT, 2003, MED REL MELB SYDN EX *AUSTR PARL HANS, 2002, SEN TRANSCR *GREENP, TUV WHAT TRUTH SEA L *HEAR ADC, 2005, SYDN MORN HER *NSSD, 2004, NAT SUMM SUST DEV RE *SECR PAC COMM, 2004, PAC ISL POP 2004 *UN DEV PROGR, 1999, PAC HUM DEV REP 1999 *UNFCCC, NAT AD PROGR ACT ALLEN L, 2004, SMITHSONIAN, V35, P44 ANDERSON KJ, 1991, VANCOUVERS CHINATOWN ASHE JW, 1999, NATURAL RESOURCES FO, V23, P209 BALDACCHINO G, 1993, DEV CHANGE, V24, P29 BALDACCHINO G, 2000, LESSONS POLITICAL EC, P1 BALDACCHINO G, 2004, TIJDSCHR ECON SOC GE, V95, P272 BARNETT J, 2001, 9 TYND CTR CLIM CHAN BARNETT J, 2001, WORLD DEV, V29, P977 BATES DC, 2002, POPUL ENVIRON, V23, P465 BESNIER N, 1995, LIT EMOTION AUTHORIT BISHARAT G, 1997, CULTURE POWER PLACE, P203 BRONNIMANN S, 2002, CLIMATE RES, V22, P87 BURGESS J, 1990, T I BRIT GEOGR, V15, P139 CHAMBERS K, 2001, UNITY HEART CULTURE CHANG TC, 2004, GEOGR ANN B, V86, P165 CHURCH JA, 2004, J CLIMATE, V17, P2609 CONNELL J, 1980, CURRENT AFFAIRS B, V56, P27 CONNELL J, 1993, J COMMONW COMP POLIT, V31, P173 CONNELL J, 1999, PACIFIC STUDIES, V22, P1 CONNELL J, 2003, ASIA PACIFIC VIEWPOI, V44, P89 DRIVER F, 1999, INTRO HUMAN GEOGRAPH, P209 DRIVER F, 2000, SINGAPORE J TROP GEO, V21, P1 ESCHENBACH W, 2004, ENERGY ENV, V15, P527 FARBOTKO C, 2005, CLEAN AIR SOC AUSTR FININ G, 2002, E W CTR WORKING PAPE, V15 FRY G, 1997, CONTEMP PACIFIC, V9, P305 GOLDSMITH M, 1985, TRANSFORMATIONS POLY GOLDSMITH M, 2002, EUR ASS SOC ANTHR C GUPTA A, 1997, CULTURE POWER PLACE, P1 HARAWAY DJ, 1991, SIMIANS CYBORGS WOME HARVEY D, 1993, MAPPING FUTURES LOCA, P3 HAUOFA E, 1993, NEW OCEANIA REDISCOV, P2 HAY J, 2000, CLIMATE CHANGE S PAC, P269 HERB GH, 2004, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V94, P140 HUBBARD P, 2002, THINKING GEOGRAPHICA HUNTER JR, 2004, ENERGY ENV, V15, P925 HUQ S, 2003, MAINSTREAMING ADAPTA JORGENSEN M, 2002, DISCOURSE ANAL THEOR JUPP J, 2003, INT REV VICTIMOLOGY, V10, P157 KLOCKER N, 2003, MEDIA INT AUSTR INCO, V109, P71 KNAPMAN B, 2002, EC PUBLIC SECTOR REV LAUTI T, 1997, TURVALU STATEMENT PR LEWIS J, 1989, ENVIRONMENTALIST, V9, P269 LOXLEY D, 1990, PROBLEMATIC SHORES L MACDONALD B, 1975, FUTURE GILBERT ELLIC MACDONALD B, 1982, CINDERELLAS EMPIRE H MALKKI L, 1992, CULT ANTHROPOL, V7, P24 MARKWICK M, 2001, GEOGRAPHY 1, V86, P37 MARTIN DG, 2000, URBAN GEOGR, V21, P380 MASSEY D, 1993, MAPPING FUTURES LOCA, P59 MCCALL G, 1994, J PACIFIC SOC, V17, P1 MCCALL G, 1996, GEOGR Z, V84, P74 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 MELLOR CS, 2003, PACIFIC EC B, V18, P20 PARISI P, 1994, URBAN GEOGR, V15, P376 PERNETTA J, 1990, UNEP REGIONAL SEAS R, V128 PRASAD N, 2004, WORLD ECON, V5, P41 RALSTON H, 2004, CLIMATE CHANGE CHALL REUTERS, 2005, TSUNAMI DAMAGE GIVES RICHARDSON JE, 2001, DISCOURSE SOC, V12, P143 ROYLE SA, 2001, GEOGRAPHY ISLANDS SM SACK RD, 1997, HOMO GEOGRAPHICUS FR SAID E, 1978, ORIENTALISM SAXTON A, 2003, MEDIA INT AUSTR INCO, V109, P109 SEM G, 1996, COASTAL VULNERABILIT SHIELDS R, 1991, PLACES MARGIN ALTERN SLATTERY K, 2003, MEDIA INT AUSTR INCO, V109, P93 SOPOANGA S, 2003, 58 UN GEN ASS STAKE RE, 2000, HDB QUALITATIVE RES, P435 TESFAGHIORGHIS H, 1994, 941 AUSTR NAT U NAT THOMPSON JB, 1995, MEDIA MODERNITY SOCI TOFA M, 2004, 59 UN GEN ASS TOLOA S, 2004, AID WATCH FRIENDS EA VANDIJK TA, 1988, NEWS DISCOURSE WALLWORK J, 2004, BRIT J SOC PSYCHOL 1, V43, P21 NR 83 TC 1 J9 GEOGR ANN SER B-HUMAN GEOGR BP 279 EP 293 PY 2005 VL 87B IS 4 GA 001PL UT ISI:000234548700004 ER PT J AU Easterling, WE Apps, M TI Assessing the consequences of climate change for food and forest resources: A view from the IPCC SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 Penn State Univ, Dept Geog, University Pk, PA 16802 USA. Pacific Forestry Ctr, Canadian Forest Serv, Nat Resources Canada, Victoria, BC, Canada. RP Easterling, W, Penn State Univ, Dept Geog, University Pk, PA 16802 USA. AB Important findings on the consequences of climate change for agriculture and forestry from the recently completed Third Assessment Report (TAR) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) are reviewed, with emphasis on new knowledge that emerged since the Second Assessment Report (SAR). The State-Pressure-Response-Adaptation model is used to organize the review. The major findings are: Constant or declining food prices are expected for at least the next 25 yr, although food security problems will persist in many developing countries as those countries deal with population increases, political crisis, poor resource endowments, and steady environmental degradation. Most economic model projections suggest that low relative food prices will extend beyond the next 25 yr, although our confidence in these projections erodes farther out into the 21st century. Although deforestation rates may have decreased since the early 1990s, degradation with a loss of forest productivity and biomass has occurred at large spatial scales as a result of fragmentation, non-sustainable practices and infrastructure development. According to United Nations estimates, approximately 23% of all forest and agricultural lands were classified as degraded over the period since World War II. At a worldwide scale, global change pressures (climate change, land-use practices and changes in atmospheric chemistry) are increasingly affecting the supply of goods and services from forests. The most realistic experiments to date - free air experiments in an irrigated environment - indicate that C-3 agricultural crops in particular respond favorably to gradually increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations (e.g., wheat yield increases by an average of 28%), although extrapolation of experimental results to real world production where several factors (e.g., nutrients, temperature, precipitation, and others) are likely to be limiting at one time or another remains problematic. Moreover, little is known of crop response to elevated CO2 in the tropics, as most of the research has been conducted in the mid-latitudes. Research suggests that for some crops, for example rice, CO2 benefits may decline quickly as temperatures warm beyond optimum photosynthetic levels. However, crop plant growth may benefit relatively more from CO2 enrichment in drought conditions than in wet conditions. The unambiguous separation of the relative influences of elevated ambient CO2 levels, climate change responses, and direct human influences (such as present and historical land-use change) on trees at the global and regional scales is still problematic. In some regions such as the temperate and boreal forests, climate change impacts, direct human interventions (including nitrogen-bearing pollution), and the legacy of past human activities (land-use change) appear to be more significant than CO2 fertilization effects. This subject is, however an area of continuing scientific debate, although there does appear to be consensus that any CO2 fertilization effect will saturate (disappear) in the coming century. Modeling studies suggest that any warming above current temperatures will diminish crop yields in the tropics while up to 2-3 degrees C of warming in the mid-latitudes may be tolerated by crops, especially if accompanied by increasing precipitation. The preponderance of developing countries lies in or near the tropics; this finding does not bode well for food production in those countries. Where direct human pressures do not mask them, there is increasing evidence of the impacts of climate change on forests associated with changes in natural disturbance regimes, growing season length, and local climatic extremes. Recent advances in modeling of vegetation response suggest that transient effects associated with dynamically responding ecosystems to climate change will increasingly dominate over the next century and that during these changes the global forest resource is likely to be adversely affected. The ability of livestock producers to adapt their herds to the physiological stress of climate change appears encouraging due to a variety of techniques for dealing with climate stress, but this issue is not well constrained, in part because of the general lack of experimentation and simulations of livestock adaptation to climate change. Crop and livestock farmers who have sufficient access to capital and technologies should be able to adapt their farming systems to climate change. Substantial changes in their mix of crops and livestock production may be necessary, however, as considerable costs could be involved in this process because investments in learning and gaining experience with different crops or irrigation. Impacts of climate change on agriculture after adaptation are estimated to result in small percentage changes in overall global income. Nations with large resource endowments (i.e., developed countries) will fare better in adapting to climate change than those with poor resource endowments (i.e., developing countries and countries in transition, especially in the tropics and subtropics) which will fare worse. This, in turn, could worsen income disparities between developed and developing countries. Although local forest ecosystems will be highly affected, with potentially significant local economic impacts, it is believed that, at regional and global scales, the global supply of timber and non-wood goods and services will adapt through changes in the global market place. However, there will be regional shifts in market share associated with changes in forest productivity with climate change: in contrast to the findings of the SAR, recent studies suggest that the changes will favor producers in developing countries, possibly at the expense of temperate and boreal suppliers. Global agricultural vulnerability is assessed by the anticipated effects of climate change on food prices. Based on the accumulated evidence of modeling studies, a global temperature rise of greater than 2.5 degrees C is likely to reverse the trend of falling real food prices. This would greatly stress food security in many developing countries. 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RP LEWANDROWSKI, JK, USDA,ECON RES SERV,DIV RESOURCE & TECHNOL,1301 NEW YORK AVE NW,WASHINGTON,DC 20005. AB The view that the agricultural sector could largely offset any negative impacts of climate change by altering production practices assumes the government will not create disincentives for farmers to adapt. U.S. farm programs, however, often discourage such obvious adaptations as switching crops, investing in water conserving technologies, and entry or exit. We outline a simple portfolio model describing producer decision making: we then use this framework to assess how specific US. farm programs might affect adaption to climate change. Three future climate scenarios are considered and in each the present structure of U.S. farm programs discourages adaptation. CR 1983, BUDGET US GOVT 1986, EC REPORT PRESIDENT, P137 1989, EPA2300589050 REP ADAMS RM, 1988, W J AGR EC, V13, P348 ARTHUR LM, 1988, W J AGR EC, V13, P216 BABCOCK B, 1986, CHOICES, P18 BORRELL B, 1987, US SUGAR POLICY ITS CROWDER B, 1990, AGR INFORMATION B US, V592 DUDEK DJ, 1989, AGR FORESTRY GLOBAL, P205 EASTERLING WE, 1989, GREENHOUSE WARMING A FAMA EF, 1976, F FINANCE HANSEN J, 1988, J GEOPHYS RES, V93, P9341 HANSEN JE, 1989, MODELING GREENHOUSE HILLEL D, 1989, RES B MASS AGR EXP S, V724 KANE SM, 1992, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V21, P17 LEWANDROWSKI JK, 1991, P GLOBAL CHANGE EC I MCCORMICK I, 1989, J SOIL WATER CONSERV, V44, P379 MEARNS LO, 1984, J CLIM APPL METEOROL, V23, P1601 MOORE MR, 1991, WATER RESOUR RES, V27, P145 POLLACK SL, 1991, USDA AIB624 EC RES S RAWLINS SL, 1989, AGR FORESTRY GLOBAL, P228 ROBISON LJ, 1987, COMPETITIVE FIRMS RE ROSENBERG NJ, 1989, AGR FORESTRY GLOBAL, P180 ROSENZWEIG C, 1985, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V7, P367 SAMUELSON PA, 1947, F EC ANAL SILBERBERG E, 1978, STRUCTURE EC MATH AN WARD JR, 1989, FARMING GREENHOUSE W WILKS DS, 1988, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V13, P19 NR 28 TC 20 J9 CLIMATIC CHANGE BP 1 EP 20 PY 1993 PD JAN VL 23 IS 1 GA KK227 UT ISI:A1993KK22700002 ER PT J AU Perrings, C TI The economics of abrupt climate change SO PHILOSOPHICAL TRANSACTIONS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY OF LONDON SERIES A-MATHEMATICAL PHYSICAL AND ENGINEERING SCIENCES LA English DT Article C1 Univ York, Contact Environm Dept, York YO10 5DD, N Yorkshire, England. RP Perrings, C, Univ York, Contact Environm Dept, York YO10 5DD, N Yorkshire, England. AB The US National Research Council defines abrupt climate change as a change of state that is sufficiently rapid and sufficiently widespread in its effects that economies are unprepared or incapable of adapting. This may be too restrictive a definition, but abrupt climate change does have implications for the choice between the main response options: mitigation (which reduces the risks of climate change) and adaptation (which reduces the costs of climate change). The paper argues that by (i) increasing the costs of change and the potential growth of consumption, and (ii) reducing the time to change, abrupt climate change favours mitigation over adaptation. Furthermore, because the implications of change are fundamentally uncertain and potentially very high, it favours a precautionary approach in which mitigation buys time for learning. Adaptation-oriented decision tools, such as scenario planning, are inappropriate in these circumstances. Hence learning implies the use of probabilistic models that include socioeconomic feedbacks. 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Univ Calif Santa Barbara, Bren Sch Environm Sci & Management, Santa Barbara, CA 93106 USA. RP Beighley, RE, Univ Calif Santa Barbara, Inst Marine Sci, Santa Barbara, CA 93106 USA. AB To investigate the impacts of urbanization and climatic fluctuations on stream flow magnitude and variability in a Mediterranean climate, the HEC-HMS rainfall/runoff model is used to simulate streamflow for a 14-year period (October 1, 1988, to September 30, 2002) in the Atascadero Creek watershed located along the southern coast of California for 1929, 1998, and 2050 (estimated) land use conditions (8, 38 and 52 percent urban, respectively). The 14-year period experienced a range of climatic conditions caused mainly by El Nino-Southern Oscillation variations. A geographic information system is used to delineate the watershed and parameterize the model, which is calibrated using data from two streamflow and eight rainfall gauges. Urbanization is shown to increase peak discharges and runoff volume while decreasing streamflow variability. In all cases, the annual and 14-year distributions of streamflow are shown to be highly skewed, with the annual maximum 24 hours of discharge accounting for 22 to 52 percent of the annual runoff and the maximum ten days of discharge from an average El Nino year producing 10 to 15 percent of the total 14-year discharge. For the entire period of urbanization (1929 to 2050), the average increase in annual maximum discharges and runoff was 45 m(3)/s (300 percent) and 15 cm (350 percent), respectively. Additionally, the projected increase in urbanization from 1998 to 2050 is half the increase from 1929 to 1998; however, increases in runoff (22 m(3)/s and 7 cm) are similar for both scenarios because of the region's spatial development pattern. CR *CADOF, 2001, INT COUNT POP PROJ S *NOAA, 2001, WR267 NWS NOAA US DE *NRCS, 1986, URB HYDR SMALL WAT *NRCS, 1995, USDA MISC PUBL, V1527 *SBCPD, 2000, SANT BARB COUNT 2030 *USACE, 2000, HEC HMS TECHN REF MA *USGS, 1999, 10699 USGS ANDERSON JR, 1976, 964 US GEOL SURV BARNES HH, 1967, 1849 US GEOL SURV BEIGHLEY RE, 2002, J HYDROL ENG, V7, P27 CANDAU J, 2002, THESIS U CALIFORNIA CHOW VT, 1959, OPEN CHANNEL HYDRAUL CLARKE KC, 1997, ENVIRON PLANN B, V24, P247 DALY C, 1994, J APPL METEOROL, V33, P140 FIELD CB, 1999, CONFRONTING CLIMATE JENSON SK, 1988, PHOTOGRAMM ENG REMOT, V54, P1593 KIM J, 2002, J CLIMATE, V14, P1926 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 MOGLEN GE, 2000, ASCE J HYDROLOGIC EN, V5, P190 MONTEVERDI J, 1997, 9737 NAT OC ATM ADM OCALLAGHAN JF, 1984, COMPUT VISION GRAPH, V28, P323 OLIVERA F, 2001, J HYDROL ENG, V6, P524 PINOL J, 1997, HYDROL PROCESS, V11, P1287 RAWLS WJ, 1983, J HYDRAUL ENG-ASCE, V109, P62 RIBOLZI O, 2000, J HYDROL, V233, P242 SMITH CA, 2000, INT J CLIMATOL, V20, P1543 TARBOTON DG, 1991, HYDROL PROCESS, V5, P81 VIESSMAN W, 1977, INTRO HYDROLOGY NR 28 TC 0 J9 J AM WATER RESOUR ASSOC BP 1419 EP 1433 PY 2003 PD DEC VL 39 IS 6 GA 765BL UT ISI:000188247200008 ER PT J AU Henry, B Mitchell, C Cowie, A Woldring, O Carter, J TI A regional interpretation of rules and good practice for greenhouse accounting: northern Australian savanna systems SO AUSTRALIAN JOURNAL OF BOTANY LA English DT Article C1 Cooperat Res Ctr Greenhouse Accounting, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia. Queensland Dept Nat Resources & Mines, Indooroopilly, Qld 4068, Australia. New S Wales Dept Primary Ind, Beecroft, NSW 2119, Australia. New S Wales Greenhouse Off, Sydney, NSW 2001, Australia. RP Henry, B, Cooperat Res Ctr Greenhouse Accounting, GPO Box 475, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia. AB Land-use change, particularly clearing of forests for agriculture, has contributed significantly to the observed rise in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration. Concern about the impacts on climate has led to efforts to monitor and curtail the rapid increase in concentrations of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Internationally, much of the current focus is on the Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Although electing to not ratify the Protocol, Australia, as a party to the UNFCCC, reports on national greenhouse gas emissions, trends in emissions and abatement measures. In this paper we review the complex accounting rules for human activities affecting greenhouse gas fluxes in the terrestrial biosphere and explore implications and potential opportunities for managing carbon in the savanna ecosystems of northern Australia. Savannas in Australia are managed for grazing as well as for cultural and environmental values against a background of extreme climate variability and disturbance, notably. re. Methane from livestock and non-CO2 emissions from burning are important components of the total greenhouse gas emissions associated with management of savannas. International developments in carbon accounting for the terrestrial biosphere bring a requirement for better attribution of change in carbon stocks and more detailed and spatially explicit data on such characteristics of savanna ecosystems as. re regimes, production and type of fuel for burning, drivers of woody encroachment, rates of woody regrowth, stocking rates and grazing impacts. The benefits of improved biophysical information and of understanding the impacts on ecosystem function of natural factors and management options will extend beyond greenhouse accounting to better land management for multiple objectives. 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RP West, P, Columbia Univ Barnard Coll, Dept Anthropol, New York, NY 10027 USA. AB In this article, I argue for placing the politics of translation and theories of value and spatial production at the center of environmental anthropology. For the past ten years, the Gimi-speaking peoples living in Maimafu village, Papua New Guinea, have taken part in an integrated conservation and development project attempting to foster a local system of valuing "nature" by tying biological diversity to economic markets through the creation of "eco-enterprises." However, the project fails to consider how Gimi produce, theorize, transmit, and express knowledge. Using ethnographic material concerned with hunting and song composition, I show that Gimi under-stand their forests to be part of a series of transactive dialectical relationships that work to produce identity and space. I also demonstrate that, as part of this project, Gimi social relations with their forests have been translated in ways that fit their beliefs into generic and easily understandable categories. This has been detrimental to the conservation project and it is politically problematic for an engaged environmental anthropology. 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RP Motha, RP, USDA, Washington, DC 20250 USA. AB Climate is one of the most important factors determining the sustainability of agricultural production systems. More emphasis must be placed on understanding the influence of changing climate conditions on sustainable agricultural systems, given the increasing limitations of the natural resource base. Agrometeorologists can play a leading role in bridging the gaps between the diverse multi-disciplinary fields of science, by reaching out to farmers, extension service personnel, and the agricultural business community. The farming community must cope with issues of climate variability and climate change, and, the challenge for agricultural meteorologists is to develop a coordinated national agricultural weather policy to assist agriculture as it deals with these issues. Agricultural weather policy must be formulated so that proactive long-term preparedness activities are strengthened to ensure agricultural sustainability and to preserve natural resources. Preparedness must be the essential foundation of an agricultural weather policy that builds upon mitigation measures and adaptation strategies to cope with climate variability and climate change as it affects agriculture, forestry, rangelands, and fisheries. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. CR *CLIM CHANG, 2001, IMP AD VULN 2001 *EC RES SEV, 1996, NAT ADJ CLIM CHANG N *FOOD AGR ORG UN, 2002, WORLD FOOD SUMM 5 YE *INT FOOD POL RES, 2000, FUT HARV CONS GROUP *US DROUGHT POL CO, 2000, FIN REP USDA ALEXANDRATOS N, 1995, WORLD AGR 2010 FAO S BLACKIE MJ, 1987, ACCELERATING FOOD PR DARWIN RF, 2001, USDA EC RES SERVICE, V765 FEENSTRA G, 1997, IS SUSTAINABLE AGR FISCHER G, 2002, CLIMATE CHANGE AGR V HENSEN R, 1999, WEATHERWISE, V52, P14 LUTZ W, 1996, FUTURE POPULATION WO MCCRACKEN JA, 1990, GATEKEEPER SERIES IN, V6 OLDEMAN RL, 1991, WORLD MAP STATUS HUM ORAM PA, 1989, SENSITIVITY AGR PROD PARRY ML, 1990, CLIMATE CHANGE WORLD PINGALI P, 1994, AGR TECHNOLOGY POLIC REID WV, 2004, BRIDGING SCI POLICY RIEBSAME WE, 1990, DROUGHT NATURAL RESO SALINGER MJ, 2000, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V103, P167 SINHA SK, 1989, CLIMATE FOOD SECURIT SIVAKUMAR MVK, 2000, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V103, P11 NR 22 TC 1 J9 AGR FOREST METEOROL BP 303 EP 313 PY 2007 PD FEB 12 VL 142 IS 2-4 GA 138SG UT ISI:000244382000019 ER PT J AU Bijlsma, L TI Climate change and the management of coastal resources SO CLIMATE RESEARCH LA English DT Article C1 Minist Transport Publ Works & Water Management, Coastal Zone Management Ctr, Natl Inst Coastal & Marine Management, NL-2500 EX The Hague, Netherlands. RP Bijlsma, L, Minist Transport Publ Works & Water Management, Coastal Zone Management Ctr, Natl Inst Coastal & Marine Management, POB 20907, NL-2500 EX The Hague, Netherlands. AB In early 1996 the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) presented its Second Assessment Report 1995. In this paper some of the IPCC conclusions are discussed in the light of possible impacts on coastal resources and with respect to adaptation possibilities in coastal areas. It is concluded that present developments and trends in coastal areas are aggravating future impacts of climate change. It is also concluded that strengthening integrated coastal zone management efforts is the vehicle for improving the present day situation while at the same time accounting for future threats, which climate change is. CR 1993, WORLD COAST C *IPCC, 1996, 2 ASS REP CLIM CHANG *MIN AGR, 1995, NETH COAST MAR BIOD *UK DEP ENV, 1996, REV POT EFF CLIM CHA, P13 *UNEP WMO, 1992, UN FRAM CONV CLIM CH *WRI, 1995, COASTL RISK IND POT PEERBOLTE EB, 1991, IMPACTS SEA LEVEL RI NR 7 TC 1 J9 CLIMATE RES BP 47 EP 56 PY 1997 PD DEC 29 VL 9 IS 1-2 GA ZD200 UT ISI:000072661400009 ER PT J AU Burton, I TI Vulnerability and adaptive response in the context of climate and climate change SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 ENVIRONM CANADA,ATMOSPHER ENVIRONM SERV,DOWNSVIEW,ON,CANADA. RP Burton, I, UNIV TORONTO,INST ENVIRONM STUDIES,ENVIRONM ADAPTAT RES GRP,TORONTO,ON,CANADA. AB The paper explores the distinction between climate and climate change. Adaptation to current climate variability has been proposed as an additional way to approach adaptation to long-term climate change. In effect improved adaptation to current climate is a step in preparation for longer term climate change. International programs of research and assessment are separately organized to deal with natural disasters and climate change. There is no scientific concensus so far, that extreme events have changed in frequency on a world-wide basis, although some regional changes have occured. It is extremely unlikely that significant shifts in the means of weather distrbutions will take place without shifts in the tails. In some situations it may make more sense to focus on adaptation to extreme events and the tails of distributions. In other circumstances adaptation to the norms is the logical focus. The relationship between normal climate and climate change is examined in terms of single and complex variables and phenomena. It is proposed that the research communities studying adaptation to extreme events and adaptation to climate change work more closely together, perhaps in a newly organized joint research program. CR *US NAT AC SCI ENG, 1992, POL IMPL GREENH WARM, P520 ANDERSON M, 1991, MANAGING NATURAL DIS, P17 BURTON I, 1964, NAT RESOUR J, V3, P412 BURTON I, 1978, ENV HAZARD, V1, P1 BURTON I, 1996, ADAPTING CLIMATE CHA, P55 HERBERT D, 1995, UNPUB ESTIMATED COST KREIMER A, 1991, MANAGING NATURAL DIS, P10 MCCULLOCH J, 1995, P WORKSH IMPR RESP A, P3 SMIT B, 1993, ADAPTATION CLIMATE V, P7 WIGLEY TML, 1985, NATURE, V316, P106 YAZICI DZ, 1995, IMPACT CLIMATE COST NR 11 TC 10 J9 CLIMATIC CHANGE BP 185 EP 196 PY 1997 PD MAY-JUN VL 36 IS 1-2 GA XH635 UT ISI:A1997XH63500013 ER PT J AU Wassmann, R Hien, NX Hoanh, CT Tuong, TP TI Sea level rise affecting the Vietnamese Mekong Delta: Water elevation in the flood season and implications for rice production SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe, Inst Meteorol & Climate Res IMK IFU, D-82467 Garmisch Partenkirchen, Germany. SIWRP, Thanh Pho Ho Chi Minh, Vietnam. IWMI, Colombo, Sri Lanka. Int Rice Res Inst, Los Banos, Philippines. RP Wassmann, R, Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe, Inst Meteorol & Climate Res IMK IFU, Kreuzeckbahnstr 19, D-82467 Garmisch Partenkirchen, Germany. AB In this study, we assessed the impact of sea level rise, one of the most ascertained consequences of global climate change, for water levels in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta (VMD). We used a hydraulic model to compute water levels from August to November-when flooding is presently critical-under sea level rise scenarios of 20 cm (= Delta20) and 45 cm (= Delta45), respectively. The outputs show that the contour lines of water levels will be shifted up to 25 km (Delta20) and 50 km (Delta45) towards the sea due to higher sea levels. At the onset of the flood season ( August), the average increment in water levels in the Delta is 14.1 cm (Delta20) and 32.2 cm (Delta45), respectively. At the peak of the flood season ( October), high discharge from upstream attenuates the increment in water level, but average water level rise of 11.9 cm (Delta20) and 27.4 cm (Delta45), respectively, still imply a substantial aggravation of flooding problems in the VMD. GIS techniques were used to delineate areas with different levels of vulnerability, i.e., area with high (2.3 mio ha = 60% of the VMD), medium (0.6 mio ha = 15%) and low (1 mio ha = 25%) vulnerability due to sea level rise. Rice production will be affected through excessive flooding in the tidally inundated areas and longer flooding periods in the central part of the VMD. These adverse impacts could affect all three cropping seasons, Mua (main rainfed crop), Dong Xuan (Winter-Spring) and He Thu (Summer-Autumn) in the VMD unless preventive measures are taken. CR *ADB, 1994, CLIM CHANG AS VIETN, P103 *DELFT HYDR, 1989, SAFLOW MAN PROGR CAL *ESSA STOTH PEG WA, 1992, WAT CONTR PROJ QUAN *IPCC, 2000, EM SCEN 2000 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 *KOICA KARICO, 2000, FLOOD CONTR PLANN DE, V1 *NEDECO, 1991, 1 NEDECO WORLD BANK, V2 *NEDECO, 1991, 2 NEDECO WORLD BANK *NEDECO, 1992, THEM STUD MAN WAT RE, V4 *NEDECO, 1993, THEM STUD MAN WAT RE, V2 *SOGREAH, 1963, MOD MATH DELT MEK ALI A, 1996, WATER AIR SOIL POLL, V92, P171 DONG TD, 2000, P WORKSH HYDR ENV MO, P236 DUONG LT, 1994, J FAC AGR KYUSHU U, V39, P1 HASHIMOTO TR, 2001, 4 U SYDN AUSTR MEK R HOUGHTON JT, 1990, SCI ASSESSMENT CLIMA KHUE NN, 1986, MODELLING TIDAL PROP KHUE NN, 1991, VIETNAM RIVER SYSTEM MINH HNT, 2002, J FAC AGR KYUSHU U, V47, P221 MOYA TB, 1998, GLOB CHANGE BIOL, V4, P645 NICHOLLS RJ, 1999, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V9, PS69 PEREZ RT, 1996, WATER AIR SOIL POLL, V92, P137 SANH NV, 1998, DEV FARMING SYSTEMS, P17 SMITH JB, 2001, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V50, P1 TOL RSJ, 1998, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V8, P109 TUONG NT, 2001, SEA LEVEL MEASUREMEN VANDIEPEN CA, 1989, SOIL USE MANAGE, V5, P16 WARRICK RA, 1996, IMPLICATIONS CLIMATE WASSMANN R, 2000, NUTR CYCL AGROECOSYS, V58, P13 XUAN VT, 1998, DEV FARMING SYSTEMS ZEIDLER RB, 1997, OCEAN COAST MANAGE, V37, P41 NR 31 TC 0 J9 CLIMATIC CHANGE BP 89 EP 107 PY 2004 PD SEP VL 66 IS 1-2 GA 857PN UT ISI:000224130900008 ER PT J AU Janssen, MA Ostrom, E TI Resilience, vulnerability, and adaptation: A cross-cutting theme of international human dimensions programme on global environmental change SO GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS LA English DT Editorial Material C1 Arizona State Univ, Sch Human Evolut & Social Change, Tempe, AZ 85287 USA. Arizona State Univ, Sch Comp & Informat, Tempe, AZ 85287 USA. Indiana Univ, Workshop Polit Theory & Policy Anal, Bloomington, IN 47408 USA. Indiana Univ, Ctr Study Inst Populat & Environm Change, Bloomington, IN 47408 USA. RP Janssen, MA, Arizona State Univ, Sch Human Evolut & Social Change, Box 872402, Tempe, AZ 85287 USA. CR ADGER WN, 2005, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V15, P75 ADGER WN, 2006, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V16, P268 BERKES F, 1998, LINKING SOCIAL ECOLO, V1, P1 FOLKE C, 2006, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V16, P253 GALLOPIN GC, 1989, INT SOC SCI J, V41, P375 GALLOPIN GC, 2006, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V16, P293 HOLLING CS, 1973, ANNUAL REV ECOLOGY S, V4, P1 JANSSEN MA, 2006, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V16, P240 SMIT B, 2006, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V16, P282 TURNER BL, 2003, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V100, P8080 YOUNG OR, 2006, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V16, P304 NR 11 TC 0 J9 GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANGE BP 237 EP 239 PY 2006 PD AUG VL 16 IS 3 GA 073OJ UT ISI:000239752200002 ER PT J AU Perarnaud, V Seguin, B Malezieux, E Deque, M Loustau, D TI Agrometeorological research and applications needed to prepare agriculture and forestry to 21st century climate change SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 Meteo France, Direct Prod, F-31057 Toulouse, France. INRA, Unite Agroclim, F-84914 Avignon, France. Meteo France, Ctr Natl Rech Meteorol, F-31057 Toulouse, France. Ctr Cooperat Int Rech Agron Dev, Cirad DS, F-34398 Montpellier, France. INRA, F-33611 Gazinet, France. RP Perarnaud, V, Meteo France, Direct Prod, 42 Ave Coriolis, F-31057 Toulouse, France. AB The adaptation of agriculture and forestry to the climate of the twenty-first century supposes that research projects will be conducted cooperatively between meteorologists, agronomists, soil scientists, hydrologists, and modellers. To prepare for it, it is appropriate first of all to study the variations in the climate of the past using extensive, homogenised series of meteorological or phenological data. General circulation models constitute the basic tool in order to predict future changes in climate. They will be improved, and the regionalisation techniques used for downscaling climate predictions will also be made more efficient. Crop simulation models using input data from the general circulation models applied at the regional level ought to be the favoured tools to allow the extrapolation of the major trends on yield, consumption of water, fertilisers, pesticides, the environment and rural development. For this, they have to be validated according to the available agronomical data, particularly the available phenological series on cultivated crops. In addition, climate change would have impact on crop diseases and parasites, as well as on weeds. Very few studies have been carried out in this field. It is also necessary to quantify in a more accurate way the stocks and fluxes of carbon in large forest ecosystems, simulate their future, and assess the vulnerability of the various forest species to a change in climate. This is all the more important in that some propagate species choices must be made in the course of the next ten years in plantations which will experience changed climate. More broadly speaking, we shall have not only to try hard to research new agricultural and forestry practices which will reduce greenhouse gas emissions or promote the storage of carbon, but it will also be indispensable to prepare the adaptation of numerous rural communities for the climate change (with special reference to least developed countries in tropical areas, where malnutrition is a common threat). This can be accomplished with a series of new environmental management practices suited to the new climatic order. CR *IPCC, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 BOIFFIN J, 2001, CROP SCI PROGR PROSP, P261 BRISSON N, 1998, AGRONOMIE, V18, P311 BRISSON N, 2002, AGRONOMIE, V22, P69 CHAKRABORTY S, 1998, AUSTRALAS PLANT PATH, V27, P15 CHEN WJ, 1999, GLOB CHANGE BIOL, V5, P41 CHRISTENSEN JH, 2001, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V28, P1003 COAKLEY SM, 1996, ASPECTS APPL BIOL, V45, P227 COAKLEY SM, 1999, ANNU REV PHYTOPATHOL, V37, P399 DELECOLLE R, 1995, CLIMATE CHANGE AGR A, P241 DELECOLLE R, 2000, IMPACTS POTENTIELS C, P74 DEQUE M, 1995, CLIM DYNAM, V11, P321 DEQUE M, 2000, MODELISATION IMPACTS DOMERGUE M, 2001, IMPACT RECHAUFFEMENT GANICHOT B, 2002, EVOLUTION DATE VENDA, P38 GIBELIN AL, 2001, SIMULATED ANTHROPOGE GIORGI F, 1992, J GEOPHYS RES-ATMOSP, V97, P10011 GOUDRIAAN J, 1995, ENVIRON POLLUT, V87, P215 HANSEN JW, 2000, CLIMATE PREDICTION A, P77 HOGENBOOM G, 2000, CLIMATE PREDICTION A, P69 HORIE T, 2000, CLIMATE CHANGE GLOBA, P81 HOUGHTON JT, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 LOREAU M, 2001, SCIENCE, V294, P804 MATTHEWS RB, 1997, AGR SYST, V54, P399 MOISSELIN JM, 2001, HOMOGENEISATION SERI MOISSELIN JM, 2002, CHANGEMENTS CLIMATIQ PERARNAUD V, 1997, 3 EUR C APPL MET GRA, P188 REICOSKY DC, 2000, CABI CLIMATE CHANGE, P27 ROBERT M, 2000, EFFETS POTENTIELS CH ROSENZWEIG C, 1998, CLIMATE CHANGE GLOBA RUGET F, 2001, MODELISTAION AGROECO, P263 SAMBA A, 2001, MODELISATION AGROECO, P243 TIMBAL B, 1995, CLIM DYNAM, V12, P1 VALENTINI R, 2000, NATURE, V404, P861 WESTE G, 1987, ANNU REV PHYTOPATHOL, V25, P207 WILBY RL, 2000, CLIMATE PREDICTION A, P39 NR 36 TC 1 J9 CLIMATIC CHANGE BP 319 EP 340 PY 2005 PD MAY VL 70 IS 1-2 GA 942EG UT ISI:000230265100017 ER PT J AU Haile, M TI Weather patterns, food security and humanitarian response in sub-Saharan Africa SO PHILOSOPHICAL TRANSACTIONS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY B-BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES LA English DT Article C1 World Food Programme, I-00148 Rome, Italy. RP Haile, M, World Food Programme, Via C G Viola 68,Parco Medici, I-00148 Rome, Italy. AB Although considerable achievements in the global reduction of hunger and poverty have been made, progress in Africa so far has been very limited. At present, a third of the African population faces widespread hunger and chronic malnutrition and is exposed to a constant threat of acute food crisis and famine. The most affected are rural households whose livelihood is heavily dependent on traditional rainfed agriculture. Rainfall plays a major role in determining agricultural production and hence the economic and social well being of rural communities. The rainfall pattern in sub-Saharan Africa is influenced by large-scale intra-seasonal and inter-annual climate variability including occasional El Nino events in the tropical Pacific resulting in frequent extreme weather event such as droughts and floods that reduce agricultural outputs resulting in severe food shortages. Households and communities facing acute food shortages are forced to adopt coping strategies to meet the immediate food requirements of their families. These extreme responses may have adverse long-term impacts on households' ability to have sustainable access to food as well as the environment. The HIV/AIDS crisis has also had adverse impacts on food production activities on the continent. In the absence of safety nets and appropriate financial support mechanisms, humanitarian aid is required to enable households effectively cope with emergencies and manage their limited resources more efficiently. Timely and appropriate humanitarian aid will provide households with opportunities to engage in productive and sustainable livelihood strategies. Investments in poverty reduction efforts would have better impact if complemented with timely and predictable response mechanisms that would ensure the protection of livelihoods during crisis periods whether weather or conflict-related. With an improved understanding of climate variability including El Nino, the implications of weather patterns for the food security and vulnerability of rural communities have become more predictable and can be monitored effectively. The purpose of this paper is to investigate how current advances in the understanding of climate variability, weather patterns and food security could contribute to improved humanitarian decision-making. The paper will propose new approaches for triggering humanitarian responses to weather-induced food crises. CR 2005, INVESTING DEV PRACTI *COMM AFR, 2005, OUR COMM INT *FAO, 2003, STAT FOOD INS WORLD *FAO, 2004, STAT FOOD INS WORLD MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 *UNDP, 2004, RED DIS RISK CHALL BARNETT T, 1994, EFFECTS HIV AIDS FAR, P164 BARNETT T, 2003, FAO HIV AIDS FOOD LI CANE MA, 1991, TELECONNECTIONS LINK, P345 CANE MA, 1994, NATURE, V370, P204 DERCON S, 2004, J DEV ECON, V74, P309 DEWAAL A, 2003, LANCET, V362, P1234 DILLEY M, 2002, WMO B, V51, P42 DILLEY M, 2005, DISASTER RISK MANAGE, V5 DUGUERNY J, 2002, AIDS AGR AFRICA FOLLAND CU, 1986, NATURE, V32, P602 GILLESPIE S, 2001, HIV AIDS FOOD NUTR S GILLESPIE SR, 2005, IFPRI FOOD POLICY RE GLANTZ MH, 1994, P WORKSH BUD HUNG 25 GLANTZ MH, 1996, INT J AFR STUD, V1 GODDARD L, 2001, INT J CLIMATOL, V21, P1111 GOES A, 2003, ANN M AM AGR EC ASS HESS U, 2005, 13 WORLD BANK LOUGH JN, 1986, MON WEATHER REV, V114, P156 NICHOLSON SE, 1986, ARCH METEOR GEOPHY A, V34, P311 OGALLO LJ, 1988, J METEOROL SOC JPN, V66, P807 PALMER JN, 1986, NATURE, V322, P251 ROPELEWSKI CF, 1989, J CLIMATE, V2, P268 SKEES JR, 2004, INSURANCE POVERTY, P422 WOLDEGEORGIS T, 1997, USING SCI FAMINE FOO NR 30 TC 2 J9 PHIL TRANS ROY SOC B-BIOL SCI BP 2169 EP 2182 PY 2005 PD NOV 29 VL 360 IS 1463 GA 986CS UT ISI:000233427400016 ER PT J AU Hovi, J TI Ethics and climate policy SO INTERNASJONAL POLITIKK LA Norwegian DT Article AB The ethical merits of three major strategies to confront global warming - prevention, adaptation and geoengineering - are considered. From the point of view of consequentialist ethics, the choice between prevention and adaptation depends on the exact set of consequences taken into consideration. Adaptation is likely to be the preferable option if only consequences for humans here and now are emphasised. By contrast, if one also takes into account effects for humans in other parts of the world, for future generations, or for other species, the case for prevention is strengthened. However, it is probably already too late to avoid global warming altogether. The question is therefore if we should try to recreate the <> climate through geoengineering. A number of ethical objections to this strategy are being discussed. The general conclusion is that, for now at least, we ought to prevent global warming as far as possible, and otherwise adapt as best we can to the climatic changes that nevertheless arise. CR *AMAP, 1997, CLIM CHANG OZ DEPL U *IPCC, 2000, REG IMP CLIM CHANG *NENT, 1997, NENT PUBL, V11 ALFSEN KH, 2000, CLIMATE CHANGE SCI B, P1 ATTFIELD R, 1994, INTERPRETING PRECAUT, S152 BAUMGARTEN JM, 1994, CHR JUD ANT, V10, P27 BODANSKY D, 1996, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V33, P309 BUCKMASTER HA, 1993, ETHICS CLIMATE CHANG, S61 CHAPMAN D, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V47, P225 COWARD H, 1993, ETHICS CLIMATE CHANG, S1 DOBSON A, 1996, DEMOCRACY ENV, S124 DOTTO L, 1993, ETHICAL CHOICES GLOB FOLLESDAL A, 1999, SUSTAINABLE DEV AIMS, S70 FOLLESDAL A, 2000, UNPUB NOEN HOVEDRETN GRUBB M, 1995, INT AFF, V71, P463 HANSSON SO, 1997, INT POLITICS CLIMATE, S153 HARGROVE EC, 1989, FDN ENV ETHICS HOLDEN B, 1996, ETHICAL DIMENSIONS G, S135 HOWARTH RB, 1996, GLOBAL PLANET CHANGE, V11, P187 HURKA T, 1993, ETHICS CLIMATE CHANG, S23 JAMIESON D, 1996, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V33, P323 LEOPOLD A, 1970, SAND COUNTY ABNANAC MALNES R, 1995, VALUING ENV MARLAND G, 1996, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V33, P275 MAUTNER M, 1993, FUTURIST, V27, P33 OUDERKIRK W, 1998, CENTENNIAL REV, V42, P353 PATERSON M, 1996, ETHICAL DIMENSIONS G, S181 SCHELLING TC, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE, V33, P323 SCHNEIDER SH, 1996, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V33, P291 SMEDRUD LH, 2000, CICERONE, V9, P19 NR 30 TC 0 J9 INT POLIT-OSLO BP 179 EP + PY 2001 VL 59 IS 2 GA 454EH UT ISI:000169959100002 ER PT J AU Unruh, GC Carrillo-Hermosilla, J TI Globalizing carbon lock-in SO ENERGY POLICY LA English DT Review C1 Inst Empresa, Madrid 28006, Spain. RP Unruh, GC, Inst Empresa, Madrid Molina 12, Madrid 28006, Spain. AB This paper extends the arguments surrounding carbon lock-in elaborated in Unruh (Energy Policy 28 (2000) 817; 30 (2002) 317) to countries currently undergoing industrialization. it argues that, for numerous reasons, industrializing countries are unlikely to leapfrog carbon intensive energy development. On the contrary, carbon lock-in may be globalizing and could further constrain climate change mitigation options. It is then argued that many policy recommendations ignore carbon lock-in, possibly limiting their potential for successful implementation. The paper then discusses four policy approaches that appear to have advantages given lock-in conditions. It is recognized, however, that relative ease of implementation does not necessarily equate with superiority. Instead, it is merely a path dependent outcome of past development decisions. Pursuing policies on the basis of relative implementation ease may help address the issue of climate change, but could also result in sub-optimal outcomes along other dimensions of sustainable development. (c) 2004 Published by Elsevier Ltd. 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POLICY, V28, P817 UNRUH GC, 2002, ENERG POLICY, V30, P317 VENDEVEN A, 1986, MANAGE SCI, V32, P590 WEBER M, 1999, EXPT SUSTAINABLE TRA WILLIAMS R, 1996, RES POLICY, V25, P865 WILLIAMSON O, 1975, MARKETS HIERARCHIES WILLIAMSON O, 1985, EC I CAPITALISM FIRM WILLIAMSON O, 1997, T COSTS EC WORKS WHE WINSTON C, 1991, J ECON PERSPECT, V5, P113 WITT U, 1997, INT J IND ORGAN, V15, P757 YARDLEY J, 2004, INT HERALD TRIB 0315 YELLE LE, 1979, DECISION SCI, V10, P302 NR 139 TC 1 J9 ENERG POLICY BP 1185 EP 1197 PY 2006 PD JUL VL 34 IS 10 GA 019RY UT ISI:000235855600009 ER PT J AU Reilly, JM Tubiello, F McCarl, B Abler, DG Darwin, RF Fuglie, K Hollinger, S Izaurralde, RC Jagtap, S Jones, J Mearns, LO Ojima, DS Paul, E Paustian, KH Riha, S Rosenberg, NJ Rosenzweig, C TI US agriculture and climate change: New results SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 MIT, Cambridge, MA 02139 USA. Goddard Inst Space Studies, New York, NY USA. Texas A&M Univ, College Stn, TX 77843 USA. Penn State Univ, University Pk, PA 16802 USA. USDA, Washington, DC 20250 USA. Illinois State Water Survey, Champaign, IL 61820 USA. Pacific NW Natl Lab, Richland, WA USA. Univ Florida, Gainesville, FL USA. Natl Ctr Atmospher Res, Boulder, CO 80307 USA. Colorado State Univ, Ft Collins, CO 80523 USA. Michigan State Univ, E Lansing, MI 48824 USA. Cornell Univ, Ithaca, NY 14853 USA. RP Reilly, JM, MIT, 77 Massachusetts Ave,E40-269, Cambridge, MA 02139 USA. AB We examined the impacts on U.S. agriculture of transient climate change as simulated by 2 global general circulation models focusing on the decades of the 2030s and 2090s. We examined historical shifts in the location of crops and trends in the variability of U.S. average crop yields, finding that non-climatic forces have likely dominated the north and westward movement of crops and the trends in yield variability. For the simulated future climates we considered impacts on crops, grazing and pasture, livestock, pesticide use, irrigation water supply and demand, and the sensitivity to international trade assumptions, finding that the aggregate of these effects were positive for the U.S. consumer but negative, due to declining crop prices, for producers. We examined the effects of potential changes in El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and impacts on yield variability of changes in mean climate conditions. Increased losses occurred with ENSO intensity and frequency increases that could not be completely offset even if the events could be perfectly forecasted. Effects on yield variability of changes in mean temperatures were mixed. We also considered case study interactions of climate, agriculture, and the environment focusing on climate effects on nutrient loading to the Chesapeake Bay and groundwater depletion of the Edward's Aquifer that provides water for municipalities and agriculture to the San Antonio, Texas area. While only case studies, these results suggest environmental targets such as pumping limits and changes in farm practices to limit nutrient run-off Would need to be tightened if current environmental goals were to be achieved under the climate scenarios we examined. 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RP Crognier, E, Univ Mediterranee, Fac Med, CNRS, Secteur Ctr,UMR 6578, 27 Bd Jean Moulin, F-13385 Marseille 5, France. AB In 1930, both Fisher and Wright identified Darwin's initial concept of adaptive evolution in the light of the genetical Cheery with intergenerational variation in allelic frequencies brought about by the action of natural selection through differential reproduction. They emphasized that selection only works at the level of the individual and that its only consequence is to increase fitness. One genetical evolution not easy to explain on these bases was that of social behaviour because any altruistic gene disadvantageous for its carriers in an asocial environment would have been opposed by selection. In the 1950s, ethologists focusing on what appeared to be evolved collective behaviours, hypothesized that selection could operate at group level. Though the controversy between group selectionists and evolutionary geneticists ended by the rejection of the evolutionary role of group selection, it has remained a subject of investigation until now. Kin selection, proposed by Hamilton, offered a solution to the problem of the evolution of altruism and gave the impetus to the trend of adaptive explanations of basic behaviours, which was to become the core of human sociobiology. The intrusion of behaviour into the process of adaptive evolution was an invitation to investigate culture as an evolutive process. The first sociobiological interpretations of culture as a derivative of genetic processes were followed by other ideas in which culture, though channelled by evolved predispositions, was essentially free from biological determinism. It is concluded that as we have come to better understand human adaptation, its complexities have been further revealed, a development already implicit in Darwin's notion. 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Tokyo Med & Dent Univ, Grad Sch, Sect Int Hlth, Tokyo, Japan. RP Umezaki, M, Univ Tokyo, Grad Sch Med, Sch Int Hlth, Dept Human Ecol,Bunkyo Ku, 7-3-1 Hongo, Tokyo 1130033, Japan. AB This study examined adaptive strategies of Huli-speaking migrants from the Tari Basin in the Southern Highlands Province to Port Moresby, the capital of Papua New Guinea. An interview survey of all migrant dwellers in two Huli communities, and time allocation and food consumption studies in their three primary settlements revealed that the subject households relied for their livelihood on a variety of activities in the informal sector (e. g., vending, small-scale retailing, moneylending, and chicken rearing) and jobs in the formal sector (e. g., driver, public servant, security guard, and storekeeper). Unexpectedly, the average income of households that exclusively depended on informal sector jobs was equivalent to, or higher than, that of households which included an employee in the formal sector. In addition, the average working hours were shorter in the former. Large interhousehold variation characterized the sample. The residential environment and composition of each household influenced economic strategies, which in turn determined the income, labor hours, and labor efficiency. However, food and nutrient intakes did not vary widely because leveling mechanisms among households, which are social norms in their homeland, still function in the urban settlements. The roles of settlements in Port Moresby are also discussed in relation to "urban problems" and rural-urban connections. 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Univ Miami, Rosenstiel Sch Marine & Atmospher Sci, Div Marine Affairs & Policy, Miami, FL 33149 USA. Univ Venice, Dipartimento Sci Ambientali, I-30123 Venice, Italy. RP Guerzoni, S, CNR, Ist Sci Marine, Riva 7 Martiri 1364-A, I-30122 Venice, Italy. AB The Venice Lagoon (VL) is a complex ecosystem in which public participation and area-based management has often been neglected by administrative bodies involved in the planning of coastal projects and public works. In this area, the analysis of the local situation highlighted a substantial absence of coordination among the various administrative bodies in charge of planning and management at various governmental levels and in different regulated economic sectors. This paper analyses public participation and collaboration with reference to the Integrated Coastal Management context (ICM). The paper examines specific requirements, constraints, and opportunities for the complex case of the VL where participatory management and institutional coordination need enhancement. CR 2004, CALCOLO IMPRONTA ECO *EC, 1999, EC DEM PROGR ICZM RE *EC, 1999, EUR INT CAOST ZON MA *EC, 2000, ASS SOC COSTS BEN IN *EUCC, 1999, 3 M GEN WATSON RT, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, V1, P1 *UNESCO, 1995, LAG VEN *UNESCO, 2004, OP GUID IMPL WORLD H *WCC, 1993, WORLD COAST C NOV 1 BETTINETTI A, 1996, J ENVIRON MANAGE, V46, P207 BETTIOL C, RELATIVE CONTRIBUTIO BOWER B, 1994, FRAMEWORK PLANNING I BROCHIER F, 2001, NOTE LAVORO SERIES, V99, P1 BROCHIER F, 2001, NOTRE LAVORO SERIES, V100, P1 BURIGANA E, 2003, DIFF POLL C DUBL CICINSAIN B, 1998, INTEGRATED COASTAL O FAVERO V, 1991, P C CONV STUD BIC TE GUERZONI S, 2004, SICK LAGOON DIOXIN O MUSU I, 1998, INDICATORI SOSTENIBI NEIL DT, 2002, COAST COAST, P318 ORBACH M, 1995, IMPROVING INTERACTIO, P49 RAMIERI E, 1999, INDICATORS SUSTAINAB RAVERA O, 2000, J LIMNOL, V59, P19 RUNCA E, 1993, P MEDCOAST 93 C NOV SMART M, 2004, LAGOON VENICE RAMSAR SORENSEN JC, 1990, I ARRANGEMENTS MANAG SORS JC, 2001, NOTE LAVORO SERIES, V16, P1 UMGIESSER G, 2003, ENVIRON MODELL SOFTW, V18, P131 WACKERNAGEL M, 1996, OUR ECOLOGICAL FOOTP NR 29 TC 0 J9 HYDROBIOLOGIA BP 251 EP 269 PY 2005 PD NOV 1 VL 550 GA 979YK UT ISI:000232980900021 ER PT J AU Oppenheimer, M Petsonk, A TI Article 2 of the UNFCCC: Historical origins, recent interpretations SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Review C1 Princeton Univ, Woodrow Wilson Sch, Princeton, NJ 08544 USA. Princeton Univ, Dept Geosci, Princeton, NJ 08544 USA. RP Oppenheimer, M, Princeton Univ, Woodrow Wilson Sch, Robertson Hall 448, Princeton, NJ 08544 USA. AB Article 2 of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), which states the treaty's long-term objective, is the subject of a growing literature that examines means to interpret and implement this provision. Here we provide context for these studies by exploring the intertwined scientific, legal, economic, and political history of Article 2. We review proposed definitions for "dangerous anthropogenic interference" and frameworks that have been proposed for implementing these definitions. Specific examples of dangerous climate changes suggest limits on global warming ranging from 1 to 4 degrees C and on concentrations ranging from 450 to 700 ppm CO2 equivalents. The implications of Article 2 for near term restrictions on greenhouse-gas emissions, e.g., the Kyoto Protocol, are also discussed. 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RP Jaccard, M, SIMON FRASER UNIV,BURNABY,BC V5A 1S6,CANADA. AB A number of possible policy responses can be adopted in order to address the prospect of increasing greenhouse gases in the earth's atmosphere, These include mitigation measures, that reduce greenhouse gas emissions or enhance the processes that remove greenhouse gases from the atmosphere, adaptation measures that reduce the consequences or damages from climate change, and information measures, including scientific research on climate processes and research and development on new energy technologies, Climate research can reduce current uncertainties about the consequences of greenhouse gas emissions and new energy technologies can reduce the costs of mitigation measures, All of these measures have a role in a balanced approach to climate policy. Copyright (C) 1996 Elsevier Science Ltd. CR *ASE AM COUNC EN E, 1991, AM EN CHOIC INV STRO *CRA, 1991, POL ALT RED PETR US *EN MOD FOR, 1993, 12 EMF STANF U *IPCC, 1992, CLIM CHANG 1992 SUPP *OTA, 1991, CHANG DEGR STEPS RED BARNES DW, 1992, 113 OECD BOVENBERG AL, 1993, INTEGRATING ENV DIST BRUCE JP, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, V3 BURNIAUX JM, 1992, GREEN GLOBAL MODEL Q CLINE WR, 1992, EC GLOBAL WARMING EDMONDS J, 1992, INT J GLOBAL ENERGY, V4, P140 EDMONDS JA, 1983, ENERGY EC, V5 EDMONDS JA, 1993, CARBON COALITIONS CO EDMONDS JA, 1994, P INT WORKSH INT ASS GOULDER LH, 1994, TAX POLICY EC, V8 HAZILLA M, 1986, SOCIAL COST ENV QUAL JORGENSON DW, 1993, REDUCING US CARBON D KOLSTAD CD, 1993, COSTS IMPACTS BENEFI KOOMEY J, 1991, LBL30477 MANNE AS, 1991, IPIECA GLOBAL CLIMAT MANNE AS, 1992, BUYING GREENHOUSE GA MANNE AS, 1993, UNPUB MERGE MODEL EV MANNE AS, 1994, 146 EC DEP MANNE AS, 1994, ENERGY J, V15, P57 MANNE AS, 1995, GLOBAL CARBON DIOXID MONTGOMERY WD, 1993, NO FREE LUNCH REV TE MONTGOMERY WD, 1994, EC IMPACTS CARBON TA MOULTON R, 1990, COSTS SEQUESTERING C NORDHAUS WD, 1994, MANAGING GLOBAL COMM OLIVIERAMARTINS J, 1992, EC STUDIES OECD, V19 PECK SC, 1993, RESOUR ENERGY ECON, V15, P71 RICHELS R, 1993, P TSUK WORKSH IPCC W ROBINSON JB, 1993, CANADIAN OPTIONS GRE SCHELLING TC, 1992, AM ECON REV, V82, P1 NR 34 TC 5 J9 ENERG POLICY BP 889 EP 898 PY 1996 PD OCT-NOV VL 24 IS 10-11 GA VX502 UT ISI:A1996VX50200004 ER PT J AU Gossling, S Hall, CM TI Uncertainties in predicting tourist flows under scenarios of climate change SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Editorial Material C1 Lund Univ, Dept Serv Management, S-25108 Helsingborg, Sweden. Univ Otago, Dept Tourism, Dunedin, New Zealand. RP Gossling, S, Lund Univ, Dept Serv Management, Box 882, S-25108 Helsingborg, Sweden. AB Tourism is largely dependent on climatic and natural resources. For example, "warmer'' climates generally constitute preferred environments for recreation and leisure, and natural resources such as fresh water, biodiversity, beaches or landscapes are essential preconditions for tourism. Global environmental change threatens these foundations of tourism through climate change, modifications of global biogeochemical cycles, land alteration, the loss of non-renewable resources, unsustainable use of renewable resources and loss of biodiversity (Gossling and Hall, 2005). This has raised concerns that tourist flows will change to the advantage or disadvantage of destinations, which is of major concern to local and national economies, as tourism is one of the largest economic sectors of the world, and of great importance for many destinations. In consequence, an increasing number of publications have sought to analyse travel flows in relation to climatic and socio-economic parameters (e.g. Lise and Tol, 2001; Maddison, 2001; Christ et al., 2003; Hamilton et al., 2003; Hamilton and Tol, 2004). The ultimate goal has been to develop scenarios for future travel flows, possibly including "most at risk destinations'', both in economic and in environmental terms. Such scenarios are meant to help the tourist industry in planning future operations, and they are of importance in developing plans for adaptation. CR *WTO, 2003, P 1 INT C CLIM CHANG AGNEW M, 2001, TOURISM HOSPITALITY, V3, P37 BELLE N, 2005, J TRAVEL RES, V44, P32 BENISTON M, 2003, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V59, P5 BLAKE ES, 2005, DEADLIEST COSTLIEST BREILING M, 1999, REGIONAL ENV CHANGE, V1, P4 BURKI R, 2003, 1 INT C CLIM CHANG T CHRIST C, 2003, TOURISM BIODIVERSITY DEFREITAS CR, 2001, P 1 INT WORKSH CLIM, P3 DICASTRI F, 2001, TOURISM BIODIVERSITY, P483 FEIGHY W, 2003, CURRENT ISSUES TOURI, V6, P76 FLOYD MF, 2004, SAFETY SECURITY TOUR, P19 GOSSLING S, 2005, IN PRESS CURRENT ISS GOSSLING S, 2005, TOURISM GLOBAL ENV C HALL CM, 2002, CURRENT ISSUES TOURI, V5, P458 HALL CM, 2004, SAFETY SECURITY TOUR HALL CM, 2005, TOURISM RECREATION C HALL CM, 2005, TOURISM RETHINKING S HAMILTON JM, 2003, FNU15 RES UN SUST GL HAMILTON JM, 2004, FNU31 U HAMB CTR MAR JENKINS O, 1999, INT J TOURISM RES, V1, P1 KENT M, 2002, APPL GEOGR, V22, P351 KONIG U, 1999, GEOGR HELV, V54, P147 LIMB M, 2001, QUALITATIVE APPROACH, P21 LISE W, 2002, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V55, P429 MADDISON D, 2001, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V49, P193 MANSFELD Y, 2003, NATO ADV RES CLIM CH PERRY A, 2004, TOURISM RECREATION C, P86 PERRY AH, 2000, NOTA LAVORO, V35 POIRIER RA, 2000, POLITICAL EC TOURISM, P29 PRIDEAUX B, 1999, CURRENT ISSUES TOURI, V2, P279 RICHARDSON RB, 2003, 1 INT C CLIM CHANG T SCOTT D, 2000, CLIMATE CHANGE CANAD SCOTT D, 2003, 1 INT C CLIM CHAN TO SCOTT D, 2005, TOURISM GLOBAL ENV C, P54 SINDIGA L, 2000, POLITICAL EC TOURISM, P129 SMITH K, 1993, WEATHER, V48, P398 STAPLE T, 1996, CAN GEOGR-GEOGR CAN, V40, P109 UYARRA MC, 2005, ENVIRON CONSERV, V32, P11 NR 39 TC 1 J9 CLIMATIC CHANGE BP 163 EP 173 PY 2006 PD DEC VL 79 IS 3-4 GA 110DX UT ISI:000242359600001 ER PT J AU Pittock, AB TI Coral reefs and environmental change: Adaptation to what? SO AMERICAN ZOOLOGIST LA English DT Article C1 CSIRO Atmospher Res, Aspendale, Vic 3195, Australia. RP Pittock, AB, CSIRO Atmospher Res, Private Bag 1, Aspendale, Vic 3195, Australia. AB The present concern about future climate change and sea-level rise due to the: enhanced greenhouse effect is put In the context of past changes. Best estimates of future changes are detailed, with an explanation of methods and uncertainties, Considerable progress is being made in regard to estimates of future sealevel rise and its regional variation, and towards predicting likely changes in the behaviour of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and tropical cyclones. Changes in rainfall amounts and intensity, and in extremes of surface temperature are other critical climatic variables for coral reefs. Impacts on coral reefs will result from a combination of stresses arising from several aspects of global change, including stresses due to sea-level rise, extreme temperatures, human damage (from mining, dredging, fishing and tourism), and changes in salinity and pollutant concentrations (nutrients, pesticides, herbicides and particulates), and in ocean currents, ENSO, and storm damage, These may be exacerbated by any reduction in calcification rates of corals due to changes in ocean chemistry. In view of ongoing uncertainties regarding future rates of change, especially at the local scale, impact and adaptation assessments cannot provide unequivocal answers, but rather must be couched in terms of probabilities and risk. Reef communities which are presently under stress are likely to be particularly vulnerable, Both autonomous and managed (or planned) adaptations should be considered. 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RP Larsen, CS, Ohio State Univ, Dept Anthropol, 244 Lord Hall 244 W 17th Ave, Columbus, OH 43210 USA. AB Skeletons represent the most direct evidence of the biology of past populations, and their study provides insight into health and well-being, dietary history, lifestyle (activity), violence and trauma, ancestry, and demography. These areas help inform our understanding of a range of issues, such as the causes and consequences of adaptive shifts in the ast (e.g., foraging to farming, sedentarism), the biological impact of invasion and colonization, differential access to food and other resources (e.g., by gender or status), and conflict and warfare. Central to bioarchaeological inquiry are the interaction between biology and behavior and the role of environment on health and lifestyle. Bioarchaeological analysis has traditionally focused on local settings. However, important perspective on general question of human adaptation is possible both regionally and globally. 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BONE GROWTH INF WALKER PL, 1989, AM J PHYS ANTHROPOL, V80, P313 WALKER PL, 2000, BIOL ANTHR HUMAN SKE, P3 WALKER PL, 2001, UNPUB GREATER SCIATI WASHBURN SL, 1947, ANAT REC, V99, P293 WASHBURN SL, 1947, T NY ACAD SCI, V21, P174 WEBB S, 1959, PALAEOPATHOLOGY ABOR WHITE CD, 1994, AM J PHYS ANTHROPOL, V93, P165 WHITE CD, 1998, J ARCHAEOL SCI, V25, P643 WHITE CD, 2000, J ANTHROPOL RES, V56, P535 WHITE TD, 1992, PREHIST CANNIBALISM WHITE TD, 2000, HUMAN OSTEOLOGY WILLEY P, 1990, PREHIST WARFARE GREA WOLFF J, 1892, LAW BONE REMODELLING WOLPOFF MH, 2000, ANTHR REV, V63, P3 WOOD JW, 1992, CURR ANTHROPOL, V33, P343 ZUMWALT AC, 2001, AM J PHYS ANTHROPOL, V32, P170 NR 226 TC 0 J9 J ARCHAEOL RES BP 119 EP 166 PY 2002 PD JUN VL 10 IS 2 GA 551ZA UT ISI:000175592800001 ER PT J AU Ford, JD Smit, B TI A framework for assessing the vulnerability of communities in the Canadian arctic to risks associated with climate change SO ARCTIC LA English DT Article C1 Univ Guelph, Dept Geog, Guelph, ON N1G 2W1, Canada. RP Ford, JD, Univ Guelph, Dept Geog, Guelph, ON N1G 2W1, Canada. AB Adaptation to climate change is recognized as an important policy issue by international bodies such as the United Nations and by various national governments. Initiatives to identify adaptation needs and to improve adaptive capacity increasingly start with an assessment of the vulnerability of the system of interest, in terms of who and what are vulnerable, to what stresses, in what way, and what capacity exists to adapt to changing risks. Notwithstanding the scholarship on climate change itself, there are few studies on the nature of Arctic communities' vulnerability to climate-change risks. We review existing literature on implications of climate change for Arctic communities, develop a conceptual model of vulnerability, and present an analytical approach to assessing climate hazards and coping strategies in Arctic communities. Vulnerability is conceptualized as a function of exposure to climatic stresses and the adaptive capacity to cope with these stresses. The analytical framework employs place-specific case studies involving community residents and integrates information from multiple sources, both to document current exposures and adaptations and to characterize future exposures and adaptive capacity. 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Carnegie Mellon Univ, Ctr Integrated Study Human Dimens Global Change, Pittsburgh, PA 15213 USA. Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res, D-14412 Potsdam, Germany. RP Yohe, GW, Wesleyan Univ, Dept Econ, Middletown, CT 06459 USA. AB Windows delineating tolerable or "acceptable" conditions associated with climate change can be defined in terms of a variety of parameters; a preliminary window offered by the Scientific Advisory Council on Global Change of the Federal Government of Germany sets limits on temperature change and the rate of temperature change. Investment in adaptation can alter the size and shape of these windows, and different emissions trajectories are associated with different limiting points on their boundaries. As a result, the value of adaptation depends upon both the underlying structure of the tolerable window and the basecase emissions trajectory. Given uncertainty about both, the best near-term policy should be cast in a sequential decision-making framework. Seen in this light, improved adaptive potential can either reduce the cost of sustaining tolerable climate change or increase the opportunity cost of holding to more restrictive boundaries. 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NASA, Ames Res Ctr, Moffett Field, CA 94035 USA. Univ Tokyo, Grad Sch Agr & Life Sci, Bunkyo Ku, Tokyo 113, Japan. RP Milesi, C, Univ Montana, Dept Ecosyst & Conservat Sci, Numer Terradynam Simulat Grp, Missoula, MT 59812 USA. AB Human domination of ecosystems has been pervasive over the last century, with nearly half of Earth's surface transformed by human actions. it is widely accepted that humans appropriate up to 50% of global net primary production (NPP), the energy base of all the trophic levels on the land surface. Yet, despite the important role of vegetation productivity for defining Earth habitability, the covariation of NPP and human population distribution has not been analyzed in depth. We used recently available satellite-based NPP estimates, along with gridded population at 0.5 degrees resolution, first, to identify the global distribution of human population with reference to average NPP and to the various climatic constraints (temperature, water and cloud cover) that limit NPP, second, to analyze recent trends in global NPP in relation to population trends, and third, to identify populations that are vulnerable to changes in NPP due to interannual variability in climate. Our results indicate that over half of the global human population is presently living in areas with above the average NPP of 490 g C m(-2) year(-1). By 1998, nearly 56% of global population lived in regions where water availability strongly influences NPP. Per capita NPP declined over much of Africa between 1982 and 1998, in spite of the estimated increases in NPP over the same period. On average, NPP over 40% of the total vegetated land surface has shown significant correlations with ENSO-induced climate variability affecting over 2.8 billion people. (c) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 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Climate change is thus of vital interest to India's social, economic and environmental well-being. This case study focuses on traditional adaptation practises used by vulnerable communities in the drought-prone Tonk district, Rajasthan. Communities here already bear the brunt of drought and have learnt to cope. Successive droughts over wider geographic areas, combined with other stresses, now threaten to overwhelm coping capacity in ways that might become the norm with climate change. New adaptation strategies have been introduced in Tonk by local non-governmental organisations (NGOs) that build on existing knowledge and expertise about water, agriculture and livestock management. These include: growing new crops such as vegetables, fodder and higher value medicinal crops for commercial sale; use of environmentally sound fertilisers (vermiculture); improved storage for fodder and food grains; and improved water conservation and harvesting techniques through bunding of fields, construction of anicuts and digging and deepening ponds and wells. The growing number of people subject to successive droughts in Rajasthan (40 million in 2002-3) suggests, however, re-examination of state and federal policies, such as the National Agricultural Insurance Scheme, would be prudent to ensure these strategies are available to the most vulnerable, in order to prevent, rather than respond to, disaster. 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AB A study of agroforestry adoption by 3,000 project participants in Siaya and South Nyanza Districts in Kenya supports three hypotheses. (1) Historical increases in tree domestication and management intensity are responses to declining supply of uncultivated tree resources, increased subsistence and commercial demand for tree products, and perceived risks of ecological degradation. Adoption of agroforestry is most likely where consistent with economic incentives for land use change. (2) High variability in individual farmers' tree-growing strategies reflects differences in resources and livelihood strategies, and household-level returns to agroforestry relative to alternative options for meeting specific objectives. (3) Farmers reduce risks associated with new agroforestry practices through incremental adoption and adaptation, and cost- and risk-reducing modifications in technology design. 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PEOPLE HIST WORSTER D, 1977, NATURES EC HIST ECOL, R7 WORSTER D, 1979, DUST BOWL SO PLAINS WORSTER D, 1984, PAC HIST REV, V53, P1 WORSTER D, 1985, RIVERS EMPIRE WATER WORSTER D, 1988, ENDS EARTH PERSPECTI, P292 WORSTER D, 1988, ENDS EARTH, P290 WORSTER D, 1990, J AM HIST, V76, P1087 WORSTER D, 1992, W SKIES NATURE HIST NR 188 TC 27 J9 J HIST GEOGR BP 3 EP 21 PY 1994 PD JAN VL 20 IS 1 GA MV990 UT ISI:A1994MV99000002 ER PT J AU Haines, A Kovats, RS Campbell-Lendrum, D Corvalan, C TI Climate change and human health: Impacts, vulnerability and public health SO PUBLIC HEALTH LA English DT Article C1 London Sch Hyg & Trop Med, London WC1E 7HT, England. WHO, CH-1211 Geneva, Switzerland. RP Haines, A, London Sch Hyg & Trop Med, Keppel St, London WC1E 7HT, England. AB It is now widely accepted that climate change is occurring as a result of the accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere arising from the combustion of fossil fuels. Climate change may affect health through a range of pathways, for example as a result of increased frequency and intensity of heat waves, reduction in cold related deaths, increased floods and droughts, changes in the distribution of vector-borne diseases and effects on the risk of disasters and malnutrition. The overall balance of effects on health is likely to be negative and populations in low-income countries are likely to be particularly vulnerable to the adverse effects. The experience of the 2003 heat wave in Europe shows that high-income countries may also be adversely affected. Adaptation to climate change requires public health strategies and improved surveillance. Mitigation of climate change by reducing the use of fossil fuels and increasing a number of uses of the renewable energy technologies should improve health in the near-term by reducing exposure to air pollution. (c) 2006 The Royal Institute of Public Health. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 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RP Cornelissen, E, Royal Museum Central Africa, Section PRehist & Archaeol, B-3080 Tervuren, Belgium. AB Reconstructions of the Equatorial forest in Central Africa fuel the debate on whether hunter-gatherers at the end of the Pleistocene were capable of living in or off the forest prior to the advent of agriculture. Their traces are rare and often reduced to their stone equipment. In an attempt to see to what extent technology and environmental exploitation are interrelated, all Central African sites dated between 40,000 and 12,000 BP are analyzed for their material culture, the environmental setting at the time of the occupation, and the exploitation of that environment. Although the evidence is still circumstantial, two large technological traditions have been recognized in Central Africa at the end of the Pleistocene, the Lupemban and microlithic industries, and both are associated with a variety of environments. This, in combination with a fragmented forest and concomitant increase of ecotone during the Last Glacial Maximum, would have enhanced rather than hampered human occupation in the area. It may be argued that the inherent flexibility and capability of exploiting a variety of environments enabled the hunter-gatherer communities to face and adapt to environmental changes regardless of stone technology. 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Univ Oslo, CICERO Ctr Int Climate & Environm Res, NO-0317 Oslo, Norway. Univ E Anglia, Sch Dev Studies, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. Univ E Anglia, Climat Res Unit, Sch Environm Sci, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. RP Eriksen, SH, Univ Oslo, Dept Sociol & Human Geog, POB 1096 Blindern, NO-0317 Oslo, Norway. AB We investigate how smallholder farmers at two sites in Kenya and Tanzania cope with climate stress and how constraints and opportunities shape variations in coping strategies between households and over time during a drought. On the basis of this analysis, we draw out implications for adaptation and adaptive policy. We find that households where an individual was able to specialize in one favoured activity, such as employment or charcoal burning, in the context of overall diversification by the household, were often less vulnerable than households where each individual is engaged in many activities at low intensity. Many households had limited access to the favoured coping options due to a lack of skill, labour and/or capital. This lack of access was compounded by social relations that led to exclusion of certain groups, especially women, from carrying out favoured activities with sufficient intensity. These households instead carried out a mulitude of less favoured and frequently complementary activities, such as collecting indigenous fruit. While characterized by suitability to seasonal environmental variations and low demands on time and cash investments, these strategies often yielded marginal returns. Both the marginalization of local niche products and the commercialization of forest resources exemplify processes leading to differential vulnerability. We suggest that vulnerability can usefully be viewed in terms of the interaction of such processes, following the concept of locality. We argue that coping is a distinct component of vulnerability and that understanding the dynamism of coping and vulnerability is critical to developing adaptation measures that support people as active agents. 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RP Parker, WC, Ontario Forest Res Inst, 1235 Queen St E, Sault St Marie, ON P6A 2E5, Canada. AB Climate change may profoundly influence Ontario' s forest ecosystems and their management. Elevated atmospheric CO, concentrations, increased temperature and altered precipitation regimes will affect forest vegetation through their influence on physiological (e.g., photosynthesis,respiration) and ecological processes (e.g., net primary production, decomposition), and may result in dramatic northward shifts in the natural range of forest types and species. More importantly, climate change is expected to increase the frequency of natural disturbances. Silvicultural intervention will increasingly be relied on to maintain forest health, manage declining stands, regenerate disturbed areas and cutovers with desired species and genotypes, maintain genetic diversity, and assist in species migration. Given the increasingly important role of Ontario' s forests in national and provincial efforts to meet greenhouse gas emission reduction targets of the Kyoto Protocol, afforestation, conservation of existing forests, and increased forest management activities to accelerate the storage of carbon in Ontario's forests will be key aspects of forestry at the start of the third millennium. 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WINJUM JK, 1998, FOREST SCI, V44, P272 WOTTON BM, 1993, FOREST CHRON, V69, P187 WULLSCHLEGER SD, 1994, PLANT SOIL, V165, P149 ZERBE JI, 1993, WORLD RES REV, V5, P414 ZOLTAI SC, 1988, ECOLOGICAL LAND CLAS, V24, P1 ZOLTAI SC, 1996, NATO ASI SER SER I, V40, P47 NR 151 TC 1 J9 FOREST CHRON BP 445 EP 463 PY 2000 PD MAY-JUN VL 76 IS 3 GA 333TE UT ISI:000088146200038 ER PT J AU Morss, RE Wilhelmi, OV Downton, MW Gruntfest, E TI Flood risk, uncertainty, and scientific information for decision making - Lessons from an interdisciplinary project SO BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY LA English DT Article C1 Natl Ctr Atmospher Res, MMM, ESIG, Boulder, CO 80307 USA. Univ Colorado, Colorado Springs, CO 80907 USA. RP Morss, RE, Natl Ctr Atmospher Res, MMM, ESIG, POB 3000, Boulder, CO 80307 USA. AB The magnitude of flood damage in the United States, combined with the uncertainty in current estimates of flood risk, suggest that society could benefit from improved scientific information about flood risk. To help address this perceived need, a group of researchers initiated an interdisciplinary study of climate variability, scientific uncertainty, and hydrometeorological information for flood-risk decision making, focused on Colorado's Rocky Mountain Front Range urban corridor. We began by investigating scientific research directions that were likely to benefit flood-risk estimation and management, through consultation with climatologists, hydrologists, engineers, and planners. In doing so, we identified several challenges involved in generating new scientific information to aid flood management in the presence of significant scientific and societal uncertainty. This essay presents lessons learned from this study, along with our observations on the complex interactions among scientific information, uncertainty, and societal decision making. It closes by proposing a modification to the "end to end" approach to conducting societally relevant scientific research. Although we illustrate points using examples from flood management, the concepts may be applicable to other arenas, such as global climate change. 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AB Environmental impact assessment (EIA) and strategic environmental assessment (SEA), two instruments for environmental management that aim to prevent negative environmental impacts, are currently being examined for their usefulness in promoting sustainable development. Because of the importance of introducing sustainable development at the local level, this paper deals with impact assessment systems introduced by local authorities and links them to the sustainable development debate. First, the establishment of EIA and SEA systems at the local level is considered. The adaptation of existing impact assessment systems to their new role as sustainability assessment tool leads to the search for so called sustainability assessment systems. These systems aim to examine during the decision-making process whether policies, plans, programmes or other initiatives will lead society in a more sustainable direction. A framework for sustainability assessment studies is developed and proposals for the further improvement of EIA, SEA and sustainability assessment systems at the local level are discussed. Copyright (C) 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment. CR *DEP URB AFF PLANN, 1996, EIS GUID *ICLEI, 1996, LOC AG 231 PLANN GUI *UNCED, 1992, AG 21 PROGR ACT SUST *WCED, 1987, OUR COMM FUT BASS R, 1996, P 16 ANN M INT ASS I DEGROOT WT, 1993, ENVIRON MANAGE, V1, P22 DENNIS NB, 1998, P 18 ANN M INT ASS I DEVUYST D, 1998, P 18 ANN M INT ASS I HARDI P, 1997, ASSESSING SUSTAINABL JACOBS P, 1988, SUSTAINABLE DEV ENV SADLER B, 1996, STRATEGIC ENV ASSESS SMAAL PA, 1997, DOTIS DUURZAME ONTWI THERIVEL R, 1992, STRATEGIC ENV ASSESS NR 13 TC 1 J9 SUSTAIN DEV BP 67 EP 78 PY 2000 PD MAY VL 8 IS 2 GA 326CN UT ISI:000087715000001 ER PT J AU Winkler, H TI Climate change and developing countries SO SOUTH AFRICAN JOURNAL OF SCIENCE LA English DT Review C1 Univ Cape Town, Energy Res Ctr, ZA-7701 Rondebosch, South Africa. RP Winkler, H, Univ Cape Town, Energy Res Ctr, Private Bag, ZA-7701 Rondebosch, South Africa. AB This article takes stock of current knowledge of climate change and the response to this major problem affecting the environment and economic development. It begins with a brief review of climate change science and impacts as assessed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. It then reports on the status of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and its Kyoto Protocol, and summarizes national commitments to making the effort required to mitigate climate change by limiting the emission of greenhouse gases. The main issues still to be addressed are identified, focusing in particular on carbon markets and adaptation funding. Future prospects are considered, including possible emissions targets for developing countries. The article thus focuses on the key issues of concern for developing countries. 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Rutgers State Univ, Dept Geog, Piscataway, NJ 08854 USA. RP OBrien, KL, Univ Oslo, CICERO, N-0318 Oslo, Norway. AB The idea that global change produces winners and losers is widely accepted. Yet there have been few systematic discussions of what is meant by "winner" or "loser," and little attention has been given to the theoretical underpinnings behind identification of winners and losers. This is particularly true within global-change literature, where the phrase "winners and losers" is widely and rather loosely used. In this article, we explore the concept of winners and losers in the context of two aspects of global change: economic globalization and climate change. We first identify two major underlying theoretical perspectives on winners and losers: one suggests that winners and losers are natural and inevitable; the other suggests that winners and losers are socially and politically generated. We then apply these perspectives to current research on global change and demonstrate that they play a decisive role, influencing opinions on what winning and losing entails, who winners and losers are, and how winners and losers should be addressed. CR *UN, 2002, UN FRAM CONV CLIM CH *UNDP, 1998, HUM DEV REP ADAMS R, 1999, AGR GLOBAL CLIMATE C ADDISON JT, 2000, SOUTHERN ECON J, V66, P682 AFSHAR F, 1994, J PLAN EDUC RES, V13, P271 AMIN S, 1997, CAPITALISM AGE GLOBA ANDERSON CW, 1990, PRAGMATIC LIBERALISM BANNISTER RC, 1979, SOCIAL DARWINISM SCI BELLO W, 2000, VIEWS S EFFECTS GLOB, P54 BLAIKIE PM, 1987, LAND DEGRADATION SOC BOHLE HG, 1994, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V4, P37 BRYANT RL, 1992, POLIT GEOGR, V11, P12 CAPLAN AJ, 1999, J ENVIRON ECON MANAG, V37, P256 CARTER TR, 1996, ADAPTING CLIMATE CHA, P27 CASTELLS M, 1996, RISE NETWORK SOC CAVES RE, 1993, WORLD TRADE PAYMENTS CHEN W, 1999, POLITICAL EC RURAL D CONROY ME, 1993, J INTERAMERICAN STUD, V34, P1 DAWKINS R, 1976, SELFISH GENE DEARDORFF AV, 2000, SOCIAL DIMENSIONS US DEMERITT D, 2001, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V91, P307 DICKEN P, 1997, GLOBAL SHIFT TRANSFO DICKENS P, 2000, SOCIAL DARWINISM LIN EHRLICH PR, 2000, HUMAN NATURES GENES FISCHER G, 2001, GLOBAL AGRO ECOLOGIC GARDEZI HN, 1998, J CONTEMP ASIA, V28, P310 GARRETT G, 2000, COMP POLIT STUD, V33, P941 GILPIN R, 2000, CHALLENGE GLOBAL CAP GLANTZ MH, 1995, CLIMATE CHANGE RES E, P41 GOODALL B, 1987, DICT HUMANG EOGRPAHY GREIDER W, 1997, ONE WORLD READY OR N GRUBER L, 2000, RULING WORLD POWER P HARPER JL, 1991, FDN ECOLOGY CLASSIC, P385 HOROWITZ IL, 1984, WINNERS LOSERS SOCIA HUNTINGTON E, 1914, J RACE DEV, V5, P185 JAMES J, 2000, CONSUMPTION GLOBALIZ JAMES J, 2000, J ECON ISSUES, V34, P537 JOHNSTON RJ, 2000, DICT HUMAN GEOGRAPHY KAPSTEIN EB, 1999, J INT AFF, V52, P533 KAPSTEIN EB, 2000, INT ORGAN, V54, P359 KAYE HL, 1997, SOCIAL MEANING MODER KELLY PM, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V47, P325 KELLY PM, 2000, TIEMPO, V36 KEOHANE RO, 1984, HEGEMONY COOPERATION KOSLOWSKI P, 1996, ETHICS CAPITALISM CR KREBS CJ, 2000, ECOLOGY EXPT ANAL DI LEICHENKO RM, 2000, ECON GEOGR, V76, P303 LEICHENKO RM, 2002, MITIGATION ADAPTATIO, V7, P1 LEWTHWAITE G, 1966, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V56, P1 MARX K, 1961, ESSENTIAL WORKS MARX, P1 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 MITTELMAN JH, 1996, GLOBALIZATION CRITIC MITTELMAN JH, 2000, GLOBALIZATION SYNDRO NORDHAUS WD, 1991, ECON J, V101, P920 OBRIEN KL, UNPUB CLIMATIC CHANG OBRIEN KL, 2000, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V10, P221 ORIORDAN T, 1999, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V9, P81 PIETERSE JN, 2001, DEV THEORY DECONSTRU RAWLS J, 1971, THEORY JUSTICE REILLY JM, 1994, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V4, P24 RODRIK D, 1997, GLOBALIZATION GONE T SAUER CO, 1941, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V31, P1 SCHAEFFER RK, 1997, UNDERSTANDING GLOBAL SEMPLE EC, 1911, INFLUENCES GEOGRAPHI SHIVA V, 2000, VIEWS S EFFECTS GLOB, P91 SMIT B, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P223 SOROOS M, 1997, ENDANGERED ATMOSPHER SUN HS, 1997, THIRD WORLD Q, V18, P843 TAYLOR PJ, 1992, GEOFORUM, V23, P405 TAYLOR PJ, 1995, GEOGRAPHIES GLOBAL C TISDELL C, 2000, UNPUB GLOBALISATION TOL RSJ, 2001, SCG4 HAMB U RES UN S WADE R, 2001, ECONOMIST, V359, P72 WATSON RT, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, V1, P1 WENT R, 2000, J ECON ISSUES, V34, P655 WILSON EO, 1975, SOCIOBIOLOGY NEW SYN WOOD A, 1994, NS TRADE EMPLOYMENT WORSTER D, 1977, NATURES EC HIST ECOL YAO SJ, 1998, REG STUD, V32, P735 NR 79 TC 4 J9 ANN ASSN AMER GEOGR BP 89 EP 103 PY 2003 PD MAR VL 93 IS 1 GA 688ED UT ISI:000183419600007 ER PT J AU Dixon, RK Perry, JA Vanderklein, EL Hiol, FH TI Vulnerability of forest resources to global climate change: Case study of Cameroon and Ghana SO CLIMATE RESEARCH LA English DT Article C1 UNIV MINNESOTA,DEPT FOREST RESOURCES,ST PAUL,MN 55108. UNIV DSCHANG,DEPT FORESTRY,DSCHANG,CAMEROON. RP Dixon, RK, US COUNTRY STUDIES PROGRAM,WASHINGTON,DC 20585. AB The response and feedbacks of forest systems to global environmental change, including the ecosystems of West Africa, are expected to be profound. A comparative assessment of current and future forest distribution in Cameroon and Ghana in response to land-use change and global climate change was completed. From 1970 to 1990, the forest area of Cameroon and Ghana declined dramatically due to harvesting and degradation, averaging 0.6 and 1.3% each year, respectively. The areal distribution of West African forest systems is projected to shift 5 to 15%, based on 4 General Circulation Model (GCM) scenarios and the Holdridge Life Zone Classification System. Loss of forest habitat due to destruction, degradation and climate change is projected to increase animal and plant species loss. Adaptation of evergreen and deciduous forest systems to global environmental change poses many challenges for Cameroon and Ghana. Application of low-input, indigenous resource management options, which have been practiced on a sustained basis for centuries, may be a feasible adaptation goal. 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RP Ernst, TM, Charles Sturt Univ, Wagga Wagga, NSW 2678, Australia. AB Resource development may involve codifications of social organization that alter preexisting arrangements. This is the case in Onabasulu society today, impacted by Chevron's petroleum extractions nearby and the codifications of collective life introduced by multinationals and the State of Papua New Guinea alike. Located on the Great Papuan Plateau of Papua New Guinea, Onabasulu "clans" are largely an artifact of a certificate-based incorporation process and do not preexist the era of petroleum development. This "entification" of clans is matched by an entification of ethnic groups, which previously enjoyed soft (or "thick") rather than hard (or sharp) edges and boundaries. Various discourses-lineage histories, myths, other stories-are best viewed as instruments that political actors-the Onabasulu as a people, various clans, various individuals-use to embrace, contest, or manipulate the new codifications as these actors strive to position themselves competitively in relation to resources in an era of nationalist and capitalist penetration. "Land, Stories, and Resources" argues for a discourse-centered political ecology of Onabasulu modernity, one that recognizes the political and discursive roots of human-land relations in an unfolding and open-ended history predicated on an emerging politics of difference within a globalizing context. 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RP Ziervogel, G, Univ Cape Town, Stockholm Environm Inst, Climate Syst Anal Grp, Dept Environm & Geog Sci, ZA-7925 Cape Town, South Africa. AB Understanding of how best to support those most vulnerable to climate stress is imperative given expected changes in climate variability. This paper investigates local adaptation strategies to climate variability, focusing on agricultural decision-making in a communal irrigation scheme in Vhembe District, Limpopo Province, South Africa. Research done through interviews, surveys and participatory methods demonstrates that adaptation strategies within a community are socially differentiated and present differing objectives and priorities. These results highlight the need for intervention and policy that support a heterogeneous response to a wide range of stresses. Evidence for climate change is clear and the need for adaptation is urgent. However, adaptation measures have to be sensitively integrated with ongoing development pathways to ensure they are sustainable and relevant to local priorities. 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39 PY 1983 VL 7 IS 1 GA QK761 UT ISI:A1983QK76100001 ER PT J AU Schipper, L Pelling, M TI Disaster risk, climate change and international development: scope for, and challenges to, integration SO DISASTERS LA English DT Article C1 Univ London Kings Coll, Dept Geog, Hazards Vulnerabil & Risk Res Unit, London WC2R 2LS, England. AB Reducing losses to weather-related disasters, meeting the Millennium Development Goals and wider human development objectives, and implementing a successful response to climate change are aims that can only be accomplished if they are undertaken in an integrated manner. Currently, policy responses to address each of these independently may be redundant or, at worst, conflicting. We believe that this conflict can be attributed primarily to a lack of interaction and institutional overlap among the three communities of practice. Differences in language, method and political relevance may also contribute to the intellectual divide. Thus, this paper seeks to review the theoretical and policy linkages among disaster risk reduction, climate change and development. It finds that not only does action within one realm affect capacity for action in the others, but also that there is much that can be learnt and shared between realms in order to ensure a move towards a path of integrated and more sustainable development. 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Jet Prop Lab, Pasadena, CA 91109 USA. RP Gorman, HS, Michigan Technol Univ, Dept Social Sci, Houghton, MI 49931 USA. AB This paper introduces the five papers that follow, all of which were originally presented at a workshop titled "Monitoring the Environment: Scales, Methods, and Systems in Historical Perspective." The workshop, sponsored by the Society for the History of Technology and the American Society for Environmental History, examined past efforts to develop tools, methods, and systems for measuring or monitoring some aspect of the physical environment. Four of the papers included here focus on various aspects of air quality monitoring; the fifth has to do with monitoring the earth from space. Despite differences in time period and approach, each article examines how specific tools and methods - and the motivations for developing those tools and methods - evolved. Among other things, these papers make clear that systems for monitoring various aspects of the physical environment are shaped by a variety of stakeholders and suggest that efforts to construct such systems should not be viewed as a purely technical task. 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RP Oye, KA, MIT, Ctr Int Studies, 77 Massachusetts Ave, Cambridge, MA 02139 USA. AB Disputes over invocation of precaution in the presence of uncertainty are building. This essay finds: (1) analysis of past WTO panel decisions and current EU-US regulatory conflicts suggests that appeals to scientific risk assessment will not resolve emerging conflicts; (2) Bayesian updating strategies, with commitments to modify policies as information emerges, may ameliorate conflicts over precaution in environmental and security affairs. CR *EUR ENV AG, 2001, LAT LESS EARL WARN P *WTO, 1996, WTDS2ABR WTO *WTO, 1998, WTDS18ABR WTO *WTO, 1998, WTDS58ABR WTO *WTO, 1999, WTDS76ABR WTO *WTO, 2001, WTDS135ABR WTO CRANOR C, 2005, WATER SCI TECHNOL, V52, P65 GRAHAM J, 2003, PERILS PRECAUTIONARY MYHR AI, 2005, WATER SCI TECHNOL, V52, P99 NR 9 TC 1 J9 WATER SCI TECHNOL BP 59 EP 64 PY 2005 VL 52 IS 6 GA 987ZT UT ISI:000233557300009 ER PT J AU Ososkova, T Gorelkin, N Chub, V TI Water resources of Central Asia and adaptation measures for climate change SO ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING AND ASSESSMENT LA English DT Article C1 Main Adm Hydrometeorol, Tashkent 700052, Uzbekistan. RP Ososkova, T, Main Adm Hydrometeorol, 72Makhsumova Str, Tashkent 700052, Uzbekistan. AB A large part of the Central Asian region is located within the inner flow of the Aral Sea basin. The water resources are formed from renewed superficial and underground waters of natural origin, and also with returnable waters. The intensive increase of water intake, that took place in the second half of the twentieth century caused practically complete assimilation of the river inflow. That was the main reason for the Aral Sea crisis. On the basis of the analysis of long periodical rows of observation by meteorological and hydrological stations, the estimation of regional water resources and calculations of changes of some components of the hydrological cycle due to the expected climate changes are presented. Measures for adaptation in the southern part of the Aral Sea region are considered. CR 1994, GEN SCHEME USE IRRIG 1995, INFORMATION B INVENT KIM IS, 1996, SHORT TERM FLUCTUATI, P149 MUMINOV FA, 1995, VARIABILITY MIDDLE A, P215 OSOSKOVA TA, 1997, ANN REV SURFACE WATE NR 5 TC 0 J9 ENVIRON MONIT ASSESS BP 161 EP 166 PY 2000 PD MAR VL 61 IS 1 GA 300UB UT ISI:000086270100013 ER PT J AU Eakin, H TI Institutional change, climate risk, and rural vulnerability: Cases from central Mexico SO WORLD DEVELOPMENT LA English DT Article C1 Univ Calif Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, CA 93106 USA. RP Eakin, H, Univ Calif Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, CA 93106 USA. AB A multiscalar, multistressor assessment of rural vulnerability is presented, illustrating how globalization, market liberalization, and climatic risk simultaneously structure the livelihood strategies of Mexican smallholders. Ethnographic data collected in three communities are used to argue that farmers' capacities to manage climatic risk are circumscribed by the ways in which they are able to negotiate changes in agricultural policy. Four livelihood strategies are explored in detail to show that market integration does not necessarily improve risk management capacity, and that subsistence maize production-while highly sensitive to hazards-may actually serve to enhance livelihood stability. The dominance of economic uncertainty over environmental risk in households' decision making implies a continued role for government intervention to help households adapt to climatic stress. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *CONAPO, 1998, IND MARG LOC 1995 *INIFAP, 1998, CONV PROD TEMP EST T *WORLD BANK, 2001, WORLD DEV REP 2000 2 ADGER WN, 1999, WORLD DEV, V27, P249 APPENDINI K, 1992, MILPA TORTIBONOS RES APPENDINI K, 1998, TRANSFORMATION RURAL, P25 AUSTIN JE, 1987, FOOD POLICY MEXICO S BAFFES J, 1998, J INT DEV, V10, P575 BATTERBURY S, 1999, ENVIRONMENT, V41, P7 BEBBINGTON A, 1999, WORLD DEV, V27, P2021 BERNARD HR, 1994, RES METHODS ANTHR BLAIKIE PM, 1994, RISK NATURAL HAZARDS, V1, P1 BRUSH S, 1977, MOUNTAIN FIELD FAMIL BRYCESON DF, 1996, WORLD DEV, V24, P97 BRYCESON DF, 2002, WORLD DEV, V30, P725 CHIOTTI QP, 1997, AGR RESTRUCTURING SU, P201 CONDE C, 1998, GEO UNAM, V5, P26 CONDE C, 2000, MEXICO VISION HACIA, P119 CORNELIUS W, 1998, TRANSFORMATION RURAL DEJANVRY A, 1995, REFORMAS SECTOR AGR DEJANVRY A, 2001, WORLD DEV, V29, P467 DELEON EZP, 1996, SEGUNDO INFORME GOBI DEWALT BR, 1979, MODERNIZATION MEXICA DOWNING TE, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE WORLD, P185 EAKIN H, 2003, J ENV DEVC, V12, P414 GERBER J, 1995, NAFTA TRANSITION, P93 GLEDHILL J, 1995, NEOLIBERALISM TRANSN HEWITT K, 1983, INTERPRETATIONS CALA, P3 HOLZMANN R, 2000, 0006 WORLD BANK SOC KATES RW, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P5 KATES RW, 2001, SCIENCE, V292, P641 KELLY PM, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V47, P325 LEICHENKO RM, 2002, MITIGATION ADAPTATIO, V7, P1 LIVERMAN DM, 2001, GLOBAL ENV RISK, P201 MAGANA V, 1999, IMPACTOS NINO MEXICO MAGANA V, 2005, CAMIBO CLIMATICO VIS, P203 MARSH R, 1998, TRANSFORMATION RURAL, P277 MCMICHAEL P, 1994, GLOBAL RESTRUCTURING MORTIMORE MJ, 1989, ADAPTING DROUGHT FAR MORTIMORE MJ, 1999, WORKING SAHE ENV SOC MOUNT TD, 1994, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V27, P121 MYHRE D, 1998, TRANSFORMATION RURAL, P39 NADAL A, 1999, ENV TRADE SERIES, V6 NADAL A, 2000, ENV SOCIAL IMPACTS E NETTING R, 1993, SMALLHOLDERS HOUSEHO OBRIEN KL, 2004, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V14, P303 OBRIEN KL, 2000, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V10, P221 OCHOA EC, 1994, ESTADO AGR MEXICO AN REARDON T, 2001, WORLD DEV, V29, P395 SCOONES I, 1998, 72 IDS SEN AK, 1981, Q J ECON, V96, P433 SEN AK, 1990, POLITICAL EC HUNGER, P50 SMITH B, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P223 SMITHERS J, 1997, AGR RESTRUCTURING SU SNYDER R, 2001, POLITICS NEOLIBERALI TIMMERMANN A, 1999, NATURE, V398, P694 TURNER BL, 2003, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V100, P8074 WATTS M, 1983, ANTIPODE, V15, P24 WISNER B, 1977, THESIS CLARK U WOOST YAPA L, 1996, LIBERATION ECOLOGIES YOHE GW, 2001, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V12, P25 ZIMMERER KS, 1991, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V81, P443 NR 62 TC 2 J9 WORLD DEVELOP BP 1923 EP 1938 PY 2005 PD NOV VL 33 IS 11 GA 982QE UT ISI:000233175900009 ER PT J AU Zhao, YX Wang, CY Wang, SL Tibig, L TI Impacts of present and future climate variability on agriculture and forestry in the humid and sub-humid tropics SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 China Meteorol Adm, Chinese Acad Meteorol Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China. Peking Univ, Sch Phys, Beijing, Peoples R China. Phillippine Atmospher Geophys & Astron Serv Adm, Quezon City, Philippines. RP Zhao, YX, China Meteorol Adm, Chinese Acad Meteorol Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China. AB Although there are different results from different studies, most assessments indicate that climate variability would have negative effects on agriculture and forestry in the humid and sub-humid tropics. Cereal crop yields would decrease generally with even minimal increases in temperature. For commercial crops, extreme events such as cyclones, droughts and floods lead to larger damages than only changes of mean climate. Impacts of climate variability on livestock mainly include two aspects; impacts on animals such as increase of heat and disease stress-related death, and impacts on pasture. As to forestry, climate variability would have negative as well as some positive impacts on forests of humid and sub-humid tropics. However, in most tropical regions, the impacts of human activities such as deforestation will be more important than climate variability and climate change in determining natural forest cover. CR *FAO UNEP, 1981, FOR RES TROP AFR AS *FAO, 1997, STAT WORLDS FOR 1997, P200 WATSON RT, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, V1, P1 *IPCC, 1998, SPEC REP IPCC WORK G, P517 *IPCC, 2001, CONTR WORK GROUP 2 3, P1032 *NAT ASS STAT AUD, 1993, STAT LOC GOV SEC MAR, P5 *PAGASA, 2001, PAGASA PUBL ACEITUNO P, 1988, MON WEA REV, V116, P505 AMADORE LA, 1996, WATER AIR SOIL POLL, V92, P1 BAWA KS, 1998, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V39, P473 BAZZAZ FA, 1998, CLIMATE CHANGE, P177 BERMAN A, 1991, EAAP PUBLICATION, V55, P23 BOONPRAGOB K, 1996, WATER AIR SOIL POLL, V92, P107 BROWN HCP, 1990, SUSTAINABLE AGR SYST, P353 BUAN RD, 1996, WATER AIR SOIL POLL, V92, P41 CRUZ RVO, 1997, P IMP CLIM CHANG TRO DAVIS MB, 1992, GLOBAL WARMING BIOL, P297 ELLERY W, 1996, AFRICAN J RANGE FORA, V12, P38 FEARNSIDE PM, 1995, BIOMASS BIOENERG, V8, P309 GOLDAMMER JG, 1998, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V39, P273 GRANDSTAFF TB, 1981, CERES, V4, P28 GREGORY P, 1999, TERRESTRIAL BIOSPHER, P22 HAHN GL, 1997, P 5 INT LIV ENV S AM, P563 HAHN GL, 1999, J ANIM SCI S2, V77, P10 HASTENRATH S, 1993, J CLIMATE, V6, P743 HOLLAND GJ, 1997, J ATMOS SCI, V54, P2519 HOREL JD, 1986, MON WEATHER REV, V114, P2091 HULME M, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE SO AF, P96 IGLESIAS A, 1996, WATER AIR SOIL POLL, V92, P13 JALLOW BP, 1997, UNPUB REPUBLIC GAMBI KIRSCHBAUM MUF, 1998, P INT C TROP FOR CLI, P19 KLIN A, 1993, J AUTISM DEV DISORD, V23, P1 KOVATS RS, 1999, WHOSDEPHE994, P48 KROPFF MJ, 1995, MODELING IMPACT CLIM, P27 LAL R, 1991, ADV SOIL SCI, V15, P91 LINEAR M, 1985, ECOLOGIST, V15, P27 LUGO AE, 1988, ENVIRONMENT, V30, P16 LUGO AE, 1988, ENVIRONMENT, V30, P41 MACE GM, 1998, CONSERVATION CHANGIN, P308 MATTHEWS RB, 1995, MODELING IMPACT CLIM, P289 NIEUWOLT S, 1977, TROPICAL CLIMATOLOGY, P207 ODINGO RS, 1990, SOILS WARMER EARTH OECHEL WC, 1985, DIRECT EFFECTS INCRE, P117 OLIVER JE, 1984, CLIMATOLOGY INTRO, P381 OLIVER JE, 1984, CLIMATOLOGY, P198 PARRY ML, 1999, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V9, P51 PARTON WJ, 1996, GLOBAL CHANGE EFFECT, P229 PAUL BK, 1993, GEOGR REV, V83, P151 PHILLIPS OL, 1997, BIODIVERS CONSERV, V6, P291 PIMENTEL D, 1993, FORUM APPL RES PUBLI, V8, P54 POORE D, 1990, STUDY ITTO, P252 RAO VB, 1986, J CLIMATOL, V6, P43 ROSENZWEIG C, 1993, 3 ENV CHANG UN, P28 ROUNSEVELL MDA, 1999, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V43, P683 ROWN S, 1997, 134 FAO SHUKLA J, 1990, SCIENCE, V247, P1322 SINHA SK, 1998, ICAR PUBLICATION, P89 SKOLE D, 1993, SCIENCE, V260, P1905 SOLBRIG OT, 1992, ECOYSTEM REHABILITAT, V2, P63 SOMARATNE S, 1996, WATER AIR SOIL POLL, V92, P129 SOMARATNE S, 1996, WATER AIR SOIL POLL, V92, P129 WEBSTER CC, 1980, AGR TROPICS, P1 WHETTON P, 1994, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V28, P221 WIJERATNE MA, 1996, WATER AIR SOIL POLL, V92, P87 NR 64 TC 1 J9 CLIMATIC CHANGE BP 73 EP 116 PY 2005 PD MAY VL 70 IS 1-2 GA 942EG UT ISI:000230265100005 ER PT J AU Naess, LO Norland, IT Lafferty, WM Aall, C TI Data and processes linking vulnerability assessment to adaptation decision-making on climate change in Norway SO GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS LA English DT Article C1 Univ Oslo, CICERO, N-0318 Oslo, Norway. Univ Oslo, Program Res & Documentat Sustainable Soc, N-0317 Oslo, Norway. Western Norway Res Inst, N-6851 Sogndal, Norway. RP Naess, LO, Univ Oslo, CICERO, POB 1129 Blindern, N-0318 Oslo, Norway. AB The article focuses on the use of climate change vulnerability assessments in a local decision-making context, with particular reference to recent studies in Norway. We focus on two aspects of vulnerability assessments that we see as key to local decision-making: first, the information generated through the assessments themselves, and second, the institutional linkages to local level decision-making processes. Different research approaches generate different types of data. This is rarely made explicit, yet it has important implications for decision-making. In addressing these challenges we propose a dialectic approach based on exchange, rather than integration of data from different approaches. The focus is on process over product, and on the need for anchoring vulnerability assessments in local decision-making processes. In conclusion, we argue that there is unlikely to be one single 'correct' assessment tool or indicator model to make vulnerability assessments matter at a local level. (C) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *ACIA, 2004, ARCT CLIM CHANG IMP *MIN ENV MIN LOC G, 1997, T597 MIN ENV *NVE, 1999, GUID LAND US SAF FLO AAHEIM A, 2004, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V14, P147 AALL C, 2003, 303 VF W NORW RES I AALL C, 2003, REGIONAL SUSTAINABLE AALL C, 2004, 204 PROSUS U OSL ADGER WN, 2000, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V90, P738 ADGER WN, 2004, 7 U E ANGL TYND CTR BACKSTRAND K, 2002, BERL C KNOWL SUST TR BERG H, 2004, 39 FLOOD COAST MAN C BERKHOUT F, 1999, INSIGHTS, V30, P1 BERKHOUT F, 2002, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V12, P83 BJORNAES T, 2002, 52002 PROSUS U OSL BJORNAES T, 2002, REALIZING RIO NORWAY BJORNAES T, 2004, NORWEGIAN MONITOR, V21 BURTON I, 2002, CLIM POLICY, V2, P145 CARTER TR, 1994, 1 SESS C PART UN FRA CARTER TR, 1994, TECHNICAL GUIDELINES CASH DW, 2000, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V10, P109 CASH DW, 2003, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V100, P8086 CUTTER SL, 1993, LIVING RISK CUTTER SL, 2003, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V93, P1 DESSAI S, 2003, 34 U E ANGL TYND CTR DOWNING TE, 2004, 3 UNDP FORD JD, 2004, ARCTIC, V57, P389 FUSSEL HM, IN PRESS CLIMATE CHA GODDARD L, 2001, INT J CLIMATOL, V21, P1111 GROVEN K, UNPUB NATURAL DISAST IVERSEN T, 2003, NORWEGIAN CICERONE, V5, P20 JACOBS K, 2005, ENVIRONMENT, V47, P6 LEMOS MC, 2005, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V15, P57 LINDSETH G, 2003, 2003 HAMB C DISC MAT LINDSETH G, 2004, 404 PROSUS U OSL LINDSETH G, 2005, J ENV POLICY PLANNIN, V1, P61 LISO KR, 2003, BUILD RES INF, V31, P200 LIVERMAN DM, 2002, CLIMATE RES, V21, P199 LORENZONI I, 2000, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V10, P145 LORENZONI I, 2000, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V10, P57 MALONE EL, 2001, CLIMATE RES, V19, P173 MOSER SC, 2005, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V15, P353 NAESS LO, 2005, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V15, P125 OBRIEN KL, 2004, 200404 CICERO OBRIEN KL, 2004, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V64, P193 OBRIEN KL, 2003, PLAN TIDSKRIFT SAMFU, V5, P12 PATT A, 2005, CR GEOSCI, V337, P411 PATT A, 2005, CR GEOSCI, V337, P425 SCHROTER D, 2005, MITIGATION ADAPTATIO, V10, P573 TURNER BL, 2003, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V100, P8074 WILBANKS TJ, 1999, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V43, P601 WILBANKS TJ, 2003, CLIM POLICY S1, V3, S147 WILBANKS TJ, 2004, BRIDG SCAL EP LINK L YOUNG O, 1998, 9 IHDP NR 53 TC 0 J9 GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANGE BP 221 EP 233 PY 2006 PD MAY VL 16 IS 2 GA 051NM UT ISI:000238167800010 ER PT J AU Gibbons, JM Ramsden, SJ TI Robustness of recommended farm plans in England under climate change: A Monte Carlo simulation SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 Univ Nottingham, Div Agr Sci, Loughborough LE12 5RD, Leics, England. RP Gibbons, JM, Univ Nottingham, Div Agr Sci, Sutton Bonington Campus, Loughborough LE12 5RD, Leics, England. AB A methodology is described for estimating robustness of recommended farm plans under climate change while maintaining a meaningful representation of the underlying farm system. Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) of crop yield data is used in conjunction with a fully specified farm-level model and output from a field worktime model. Estimates of farm net margin, enterprise mix (choice and area of enterprises), labour, machinery, storage and animal housing under mean crop yields and field worktimes for current (2000s) and 2050s conditions are generated. MCS is used to estimate the effect of crop yield variation on farm profitability and enterprise mix for the same periods by running the farm-level model with no constraints and running it constrained to the mean data plan. Estimates of robustness, measured as the percentage difference and the probability of exceeding the mean farm net-margin, were calculated from the outputs from these runs. For three representative farm types, mean farm net margin increased; however changes in robustness as shown by percentage difference in farm net margin depended on farm type while the probability of exceeding the mean plan net-margin decreased by 2050 indicating an increase in robustness. The most robust farm type had a diversified mix of enterprises and required no additional fixed resources by the 2050s. The least robust farm type was in a marginal location and mean plan recommendations for the 2050s required additional investment in fixed resources, particularly irrigation. It is concluded that the information provided by the methodology would be particularly useful to farmers: where mean data plans are not robust, MCS results could be used with financial planning techniques to minimise the impact of variability, rather than using high cost inputs to reduce variability per se. CR ACKRILL RW, 2001, EUR REV AGRIC ECON, V28, P207 ALDERMAN G, 1993, ENERGY PROTEIN REQUI BOWMAN AW, 1997, APPL SMOOTHING TECHN BRYANT CR, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P181 CHADWICK L, 1997, FARM MANAGEMENT HDB DASH, 1997, XPRESS MP USER GUIDE DILLON CR, 2001, AM AGR EC ASS ANN M DOWLE K, 1990, AGR WATER MANAGE, V18, P101 EASTERLING WE, 1992, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V59, P53 EASTERLING WE, 1992, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V59, P75 EASTERLING WE, 1993, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V24, P23 HOSSELL J, 2001, CC0333 DEFRA HULME M, 1998, 1 UK CLIM IMP PROGR IHAKA R, 1996, J COMPUTATIONAL GRAP, V5, P299 KAISER HM, 1993, AM J AGR ECON, V75, P387 KIMBALL BA, 1993, VEGETATIO, V104, P65 MENDELSOHN R, 1994, AM ECON REV, V84, P753 NIX J, 1999, FARM MANAGEMENT POCK PANNELL DJ, 2000, AGR ECON, V23, P69 RAMSDEN S, 1999, AGR SYST, V62, P201 RAMSDEN S, 2000, FARM MANAGEMENT, V10, P606 REILLY JM, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P253 SCHIMMELPFENNIG D, 1996, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V33, P213 SCHNEIDER SH, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P203 SILVERMAN BW, 1986, DENSITY ESTIMATION S WEATHERHEAD EK, 1997, IRRIGATION DEMAND FA WILLIAMS JR, 1990, US DEPT AGR TECHNICA, V1768 ZEYUAN Q, 1998, AGR RES EC REV, V27, P231 NR 28 TC 0 J9 CLIMATIC CHANGE BP 113 EP 133 PY 2005 PD JAN VL 68 IS 1-2 GA 899ZF UT ISI:000227183700007 ER PT J AU Kiparsky, M Brooks, C Gleick, PH TI Do regional disparities in research on climate and water influence adaptive capacity? SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 Univ Calif Berkeley, Energy & Resources Grp, Berkeley, CA 94720 USA. Pacific Inst, Oakland, CA 94612 USA. RP Kiparsky, M, Univ Calif Berkeley, Energy & Resources Grp, 310 Barrows Hall, Berkeley, CA 94720 USA. AB As part of a long-term effort to both improve access to information on climate change and freshwater resources, and to understand the state of the science, we compiled an electronic bibliography of scientific literature in that area. We analyzed the distribution of information on climatic impacts on freshwater resources, with an emphasis on differences between developed and developing regions as well as differences in the types and focus of research carried out among regions. There has been more research overall in developed countries than in the developing world. Proportionally more of the available research on natural and human systems pertains to developed regions, while most of the analysis done in developing countries is limited to higher-level climatology and hydrology. We argue that scientific information and understanding are important elements of the ability to adapt to potential climatic changes. The distribution of the scientific literature in our database suggests that the types of science most directly relevant to adaptive capacity are skewed towards developed countries, which may exacerbate existing disparities in adaptive capacity, and ultimately worsen the consequences of climatic impacts in developing countries. CR 2000, WORLD COMMISSION DAM *UNESCO, 2001, STAT SCI TECHN WORLD AGARWAL A, 2002, CLIMATE CHANGE POLIC BAER P, 2002, CLIMATE CHANGE POLIC BRISCOE J, 1996, WATER SUPPLY, V14, P1 BRISCOE J, 1999, WATER RESOURCES DEV, V15, P459 BULLOCK A, 2003, CLIMATE CHANGES WATE, P60 CAMPBELL DJ, 1999, HUM ECOL, V27, P377 CHALECKI EL, 1999, J AM WATER RESOUR AS, V35, P1657 CLARKE AR, 1998, COMPREHENSIVE BIOL C, V3, P1 GARFIELD E, 1989, SCIENTIST, V3, P12 HAMMER GL, 2000, APPL SEASONAL CLIMAT HOLMGREN M, 2004, PLOS BIOL, V2, P10 HOUGHTON JT, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 ILBERY BW, 1997, AGR RESTRUCTURING SU KAHN HR, 2000, WATER RESOURCES DEV, V16, P21 KATES RW, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P5 MARX W, 2001, SCIENTOMETRICS, V52, P59 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 METZ B, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 MOENCH M, 2004, ADAPTIVE CAPACITY LI NELSON DR, 2000, PRACTICING ANTHR, V22, P6 VASQUEZLEON M, 2003, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V13, P159 WALLNER A, 2003, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V13, P185 NR 24 TC 0 J9 CLIMATIC CHANGE BP 363 EP 375 PY 2006 PD AUG VL 77 IS 3-4 GA 081HJ UT ISI:000240307600012 ER PT J AU Smithers, J Blay-Palmer, A TI Technology innovation as a strategy for climate adaptation in agriculture SO APPLIED GEOGRAPHY LA English DT Article C1 Univ Guelph, Dept Geog, Guelph, ON N1G 2W1, Canada. RP Smithers, J, Univ Guelph, Dept Geog, Guelph, ON N1G 2W1, Canada. AB Technological research and development are among the most frequently advocated strategies for adapting agriculture to possible future changes in climate. However, while many statements point to the reliance that is placed on technology, and to the power of induced innovation, the actual process of agricultural research and development has received little explicit consideration in the context of climatic constraints on food production. This paper offers both a descriptive assessment and empirical analysis of the place of technology research and development in climate adaptation research and planning. Insights into the assumed role of technology are developed through a review of the published literature and recent commentary. The role of technological innovation in the handling of climatic risks is then explored empirically in an analysis of innovation research and development in the Ontario soybean industry. This reveals an array of technological innovations that have helped Ontario soybean-growers manage climatic challenges to date, as well as a range of potential constraints on the innovation process itself. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *COUNC AGR SCI TEC, 1992, 119 CAST *ONT SOYB GROW MAR, 1988, ANN REP *ONT SOYB GROW MAR, 1998, SOYB VAR DISTR *USDA, 1990, MISCELLANEOUS PUBLIC, V1482 BAZZAZ F, 1996, GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANG BEVERSDORF WD, 1995, HARVEST GOLD HIST FI BLAIN R, 1995, 22 U GUELPH DEP GEOG BRKLACICH M, 1992, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V20, P1 BRKLACICH M, 1997, AGR RESTRUCTURING SU, P351 BRYANT CR, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P181 BURTON I, 1978, ENV HAZARD, V1, P1 CARTER TR, 1994, IPCC TECHNICAL GUIDE CHIOTTI QP, 1997, AGR RESTRUCTURING SU, P167 CHIOTTI QP, 1995, J RURAL STUD, V11, P335 CROSSON PR, 1983, AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON, V9, P339 CROSSON PR, 1989, SCI AM SEP, P128 DAMOTA FS, 1978, 160 WMO DAY P, 1995, 7 NAT AGR BIOT COUNC, P79 DUMANSKI J, 1986, J SOIL WATER CONSERV, V41, P204 EASTERLING WE, 1992, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V59, P3 EASTERLING WE, 1996, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V80, P1 EDWARDS CA, 1993, AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON, V46, P99 GLANTZ MH, 1988, SOC RESPONSES REGION, P113 GLANTZ MH, 1991, ENVIRONMENT, V33, P10 GOODMAN RM, 1987, SCIENCE, V236, P48 HAYAMI Y, 1985, AGR DEV INT PERSPECT HOUGHTON JT, 1990, IPCC SCI ASSESSMENT JOSEPH A, 1981, CAN GEOGR, V23, P333 KAISER HM, 1993, AGR DIMENSIONS GLOBA, P136 KLASSEN S, 1998, CANADIAN WATER RESOU, V24, P61 LEWANDROWSKI JK, 1992, EC ISSUES GLOBAL CLI, P132 LINSTONE HA, 1997, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V54, P1 MAJOR DJ, 1991, J PROD AGRIC, V4, P606 NELLIS MD, 1987, DEMANDS RURAL LAND P, P71 PARRY ML, 1988, IMPACTS CLIMATE VARI, V1 REILLY JM, 1998, SOIL TILL RES, V47, P275 ROSENBERG NJ, 1981, CLIMATES IMPACT FOOD, P157 ROSENBERG NJ, 1982, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V4, P239 ROSENBERG NJ, 1991, RESOURCES FUTURE, V103, P17 ROSENBERG NJ, 1992, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V21, P385 ROSENBERG NJ, 1993, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V24, P7 ROSENZWEIG C, 1994, NATURE, V367, P133 RUTTAN VW, 1996, CAN J PLANT PATHOL, V18, P123 SCHWEGER C, 1991, ALTERNATIVE FUTURES, P1 SEDEROFF R, 1995, 7 NAT AGR BIOT COUNC, P71 SMIT B, 1993, 19 U GUELPH DEP GEOG SMIT B, 1999, IN PRESS MITIGATION SMIT B, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P223 SMITH MJ, 1997, BRAIN RES BULL, V42, P1 SMITHERS J, 1997, AGR RESTRUCTURING SU, P167 SMITHERS J, 1997, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V7, P129 SPALING H, 1995, AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON, V53, P279 SPEDDING CR, 1996, AGR CITIZEN WARRICK RA, 1980, CLIMATIC CONSTRAINTS, P93 WHITE ME, 1994, CORNELL VET, V84, P1 NR 55 TC 0 J9 APPL GEOGR BP 175 EP 197 PY 2001 PD APR VL 21 IS 2 GA 444FW UT ISI:000169390300005 ER PT J AU DeFrance, SD Keefer, DK Richardson, JB Umire Alvaraez, A TI Late Paleo-Indian coastal foragers: Specialized extractive behavior at Quebrada Tacahuay, Peru SO LATIN AMERICAN ANTIQUITY LA English DT Article C1 Univ Florida, Dept Anthropol, Gainesville, FL 32611 USA. US Geol Survey MS 977, Menlo Pk, CA USA. Univ Pittsburgh, Carnegie Museum Natural Hist, Pittsburgh, PA 15260 USA. Museo Contisuyu, Moquegua, Peru. RP DeFrance, SD, Univ Florida, Dept Anthropol, Gainesville, FL 32611 USA. AB Quebrada Tacahuay, located on the south coast of Peru, is one of the oldest expressions of maritime adaptations in the Western Hemisphere. Excavations conducted in 1997 and 1998 indicate that humans focused their activities on the collection and butchering of marine birds, particularly cormorants and boobies, and other marine resources more than 10,290 years ago (uncalibrated radiocarbon years BP). In addition to abundant zooarchaeological remains, cultural material includes unifacial lithic tools and one worked marine mammal rib. We report on the use of marine resources at the site in conjunction with the taphonomic history of site formation. Geological data indicate that El Nino flood events initially occurred during the Pleistocene and at various times during the Holocene. The abundant use of seafood indicates that Quebrada Tacahuay represents a specialized coastal extraction station used by Late Paleo-Indian populations with a well-developed littoral adaptation. CR ALDENDORFER MS, 1998, MONTANE FORAGERS ASA DEFRANCE SD, 1998, 63RD ANN MTG SOC AM DEFRANCE SD, 1999, 64TH ANN MTG SOC AM DEFRANCE SD, 2002, CLOVIS CONTEXT NEW L DILLEHAY TD, 2000, SETTLEMENT AMERICAS DIXON EJ, 1999, BONES BOATS BISON AR FAGAN BM, 1995, ANCIENT N AM ARCHAEO KEEFER DK, 1998, SCIENCE, V281, P1833 LYNCH TF, 1983, ANCIENT S AM, P87 MCINNIS HE, 1999, THESIS U MAINE RICHARDSON JB, 1981, ANN CARNEGIE MUS, V50, P139 RICHARDSON JB, 1992, REV ARQUEOLOGIA AM, V6, P71 RICHARDSON JB, 1998, REVISTA ARQUEOL AM, V15, P33 SANDWEISS DH, 1989, ECOLOGY SETTLEMENT H, P35 SANDWEISS DH, 1996, SCIENCE, V273, P1531 SANDWEISS DH, 1998, SCIENCE, V281, P1830 STUIVER M, 1998, RADIOCARBON, V40, P1041 UMIREALVAREZ A, 1998, UNPUB INVENTARIO ARQ WALKER KJ, 2000, SE ARCHEOL, V91, P24 WISE K, 1999, B ARQUEOL PUCP, V3, P335 NR 20 TC 3 J9 LAT AM ANTIQ BP 413 EP 426 PY 2001 PD DEC VL 12 IS 4 GA 507GG UT ISI:000173018200004 ER PT J AU Hanemann, WM TI Adaptation and its measurement - An editorial comment SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Editorial Material C1 Univ Calif Berkeley, Dept Agr & Resource Econ, Berkeley, CA 94720 USA. Univ Calif Berkeley, Goldman Sch Publ Policy, Berkeley, CA 94720 USA. RP Hanemann, WM, Univ Calif Berkeley, Dept Agr & Resource Econ, Berkeley, CA 94720 USA. CR ADAMS R, 1989, POTENTIAL EFFECTS GL ADAMS R, 1995, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V30, P146 ADAMS RM, 1990, NATURE, V345, P219 ALCHIAN AA, 1950, J POLITICAL EC, V58, P211 BELSLEY DA, 1980, REGRESSION DIAGNOSTI BREIMAN L, 1985, J AM STAT ASSOC, V80, P580 BREIMAN L, 1993, CLASSIFICATION REGRE CROSSON PR, 1991, DOERL01830TH7 DUTTA PK, 1999, REV ECON STUD, V66, P769 FANKHAUSER R, 1997, WEATHERING CLIMATE C FISHER AC, 1993, ASSESSING SURPRISES FISHER AC, 1999, IMPACT GLOBAL WARMIN FREEDMAN D, 1997, ADV APPL MATH, V18, P59 HALL RL, 1939, OXFORD ECON PAP, V2, P12 KRASKER WS, 1983, HDB ECONOMETRICS, V1, P651 LANGE N, 1989, ANN STAT, V17, P624 LESTER R, 1947, AM ECON REV, V37, P135 LESTER RA, 1946, AM ECON REV, V36, P62 LEWANDROWSKI JK, 1999, AM J AGR ECON, V75, P39 MCCULLOCH JH, 1998, PRACTICAL GUIDE HEAV MENDELSOHN R, 1994, AM ECON REV, V84, P753 MENDELSOHN R, 1996, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V80, P55 MENDELSOHN R, 1999, AM ECON REV, V89, P1053 MENDELSOHN R, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P583 PACE RK, 1993, J REAL ESTATE FINANC, V7, P185 ROSENBAUM PR, 1999, STAT SCI, V14, P259 ROSENZWEIG C, 1994, NATURE, V367, P133 SIMON HA, 1955, Q J ECON, V69, P99 YOHE GW, 1996, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V32, P387 NR 29 TC 1 J9 CLIMATIC CHANGE BP 571 EP 581 PY 2000 PD JUN VL 45 IS 3-4 GA 324XH UT ISI:000087646800013 ER PT J AU Shepherd, P Tansey, J Dowlatabadi, H TI Context matters: What shapes adaptation to water stress in the Okanagan? SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 Univ British Columbia, Sustainable Dev Res Initat, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z2, Canada. Univ Oxford, Said Bus Sch, James Martin Inst Sci & Civilizat, Oxford OX1 1HP, England. RP Shepherd, P, Univ British Columbia, Sustainable Dev Res Initat, 1924 West Mall, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z2, Canada. AB This paper describes two case studies of demand-side water management in the Okanagan region of southern British Columbia, Canada. The case studies reveal important lessons about how local context shapes the process of adaptation; in these cases, adaptation to rising and changing water demand under a regime of increasingly limited supply in a semi-arid region. Both case studies represent examples of water meter implementation, specifically volume-based pricing in a residential area and as a compliance tool in a mainly farming district. While the initiative was successful in the residential setting, agricultural metering met with stiff resistance. These cases suggest many factors shape the character of the adaptation process, including: interpretation of the signal relative to context, newness of the approach, consumer values, and local and provincial political agendas. Although context has been explored in resource management circles, thus far climate change adaptation research has not adequately discussed the embeddedness of adaptation. In other words, how context matters and what aspects of context, unrelated to climate change, could encourage or thwart the act of adapting. This study is a simple illustration of the potential drivers, barriers and enabling factors that have influenced the adaptation process of water management decisions in the Okanagan. 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RP Volney, WJA, Canadian Forestry Serv, Nat Resources Canada, No Forestry Ctr, 5320-122 St, Edmonton, AB T6H 3S5, Canada. AB The forest sector in Canada makes a significant contribution to the wealth of the nation. Many of our forest ecosystems, like the phoenix, need fire for rebirth and renewal. In contrast, other forests rely on a cool, wet disintegration driven by insects and their commensal fungi feeding on trees to effect this renewal. This disparity has a manifest difference in the character of these forests and how they have developed and evolved over thousands of years. While there are characteristic natural temporal and spatial patterns to these disturbances, recent work has shown that they arc being perturbed by global change. Compounding these perturbations is the emergence of extensive anthropogenic disturbances in these forests. If humans continue trying to manage complex natural systems as though they were machines, problems with unknown consequences will compound. For example, we have only recently begun to understand that changes in disturbance regimes can generate positive feedbacks leading to what could amount to sudden and drastic change for certain forest communities. Systems-based techniques aimed at adapting to these consequences are emerging and win need to be implemented in a timely fashion to minimize the risks and maximize the opportunities associated with sustainable forest management under a changing climate. 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RP McMichael, AJ, Univ London London Sch Hyg & Trop Med, Dept Epidemiol & Populat Hlth, London WC1E 7HT, England. AB Global climate change is likely to have a range of consequences for human health as a result of disturbance or weakening of the biosphere's natural or human-managed Life support systems. The full range of potential human health impacts of global climate change is diverse and would be distributed differentially spatially and over time. Changes in the mortality toll of heatwaves and changes in the distribution of vector-borne infectious diseases may occur early. The public health consequences of sea level rise and of regional changes in agricultural productivity may not occur (or become apparent) for several decades. Vulnerability is a measure of both sensitivity to climate change and the ability to adapt in anticipation of, or in response to, its impacts. The basic modes of adaptation to climate-induced health hazards are biological, behavioural and social. Adaptation can be undertaken at the individual, community and whole-population levels. Adaptive strategies should not introduce new health hazards. Enhancement of the acknowledged public health infrastructure and intervention programmes is essential to reduce vulnerability to the health impacts of climate change. In the longer-term, fundamental improvements in the social and material conditions of life and in the reduction of inequalities within and between populations are required for sustained reduction in vulnerability to environmental health hazards. CR *IFRC, 1996, WORLD DIS REP 1996 WATSON RT, 1998, REGIONAL IMPACTS CLI, V1, P1 *WCHE, 1992, OUR PLAN OUR HLTH *WHO, 1993, GLOB STRAT MAL CONTR *WHO, 1996, CTDPR971 WHO *WHO, 1998, WHO COMM ID CONSTR S *WMO, 1997, M EXP CLIM HUM HLTH BLAIKIE PM, 1994, RISK NATURAL HAZARDS, V1, P1 BOUMA MJ, 1996, TROP MED INT HEALTH, V1, P86 BOUMA MJ, 1997, JAMA-J AM MED ASSOC, V278, P1772 BOUMA MJ, 1997, LANCET, V350, P1435 COLWELL RR, 1996, SCIENCE, V274, P2025 DAVIS DL, 1997, LANCET, V350, P1341 FRISANCHO R, 1991, HUMAN ADAPTATION FUN GLASS GE, 1993, APPL GIS TECHNOLOGY HAINES A, 1997, BRIT MED J, V315, P870 HALES S, 1996, LANCET, V348, P1664 HARDY IRB, 1996, LANCET, V347, P1739 HUNTER JM, 1993, PARASITIC DIS WATER KALKSTEIN LS, 1995, CLIMATE CHANGES INT, P124 KALKSTEIN LS, 1996, B AM METEOROL SOC, V77, P1519 KELLERMANN AL, 1996, NEW ENGL J MED, V335, P126 KLEIN RJT, 1997, ADAPTATION CLIMATE C KOVATS RS, 1998, REPORT WHO UNEP MRC LINDSAY S, 1998, IN PRESS B WHO, V78 MARTENS WJM, 1997, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V35, P145 MARTENS WJM, 1998, HLTH CLIMATE CHANGE MCMICHAEL AJ, 1996, WHOEHG967 MCMICHAEL AJ, 1997, AUST NZ J PUBL HEAL, V21, P425 MCMICHAEL AJ, 1997, ENVIRON MODEL ASSESS, V2, P129 MURRAY CJL, 1996, SCIENCE, V274, P740 NOIN D, 1994, ENV POPULATION CHANG, P363 OKE TR, 1997, APPL CLIMATOLOGY, P273 PATZ JA, 1996, ADAPTING CLIMATE CHA, P440 WOODWARD A, IN PRESS CLIMATE RES NR 35 TC 4 J9 ENVIRON MONIT ASSESS BP 49 EP 64 PY 2000 PD MAR VL 61 IS 1 GA 300UB UT ISI:000086270100004 ER PT J AU Weber, M Hauer, G TI A regional analysis of climate change impacts on Canadian agriculture SO CANADIAN PUBLIC POLICY-ANALYSE DE POLITIQUES LA English DT Article C1 Alberta Res Council, Edmonton, AB, Canada. Univ Alberta, Dept Rural Econ, Edmonton, AB, Canada. RP Weber, M, Alberta Res Council, Edmonton, AB, Canada. AB Climate change is expected to after production opportunities facing agricultural producers. Global studies of climate change impacts on agriculture suggest positive benefits for Canada. Results from Canadian studies tend to be more pessimistic; however, most of these studies are regionally specific and focus on the impacts on specific crops, particularly grains and oilseeds. This paper examines the impact of climate change on Canadian agricultural land values. Changes in land values are used to impute expected changes to agricultural GDP. We find that all provinces benefit from climate change and that previous estimates may be overly pessimistic. CR *CCIS, 2001, CAN CLIM IMIP SCEN C *CTR LAND BIOL RES, 1996, SOIL LANDSC CAN V 2 *ENV CAN LANDS DIR, 1976, LAND CAP AGR *IPCC, 2001, CLIM CHANG 2001 SYNT *SOIL CLASS WORK G, 1998, AGR AGR CAN PUBL, V1646 *STAT CAN, 1996, 1996 CENS AGR *STAT CAN, 1996, 1996 CENS CAN ADAMS RM, 1999, IMPACT CLIMAGE CHANG ALLEN LH, 1996, GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANG ARTHUR LM, 1992, PRAIRIE FORUM, V17, P97 BAUDER J, 1998, WATER NEEDS PULSE CR BEATTIE KG, 1981, AGR USE MARGINAL LAN BELSEY DE, 1980, REGRESSION DIAGNOSTI BOOTSMA A, 1999, CANADA COUNTRY STUDY BRKLACICH M, 1992, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V20, P1 BRKLACICH M, 1995, SPECIAL PUBLICATION, V59 BRKLACICH M, 1997, AGR RESTRUCTURING SU BRKLACICH M, 1999, CANADA COUNTRY STUDY CHAPMAN LJ, 1966, 3 DEP FOR RUR DEV CHIOTTI QP, 1997, AGR RESTRUCTURING SU DARWIN RF, 1995, 703 USDA DELCOURT G, 1995, J SUSTAIN AGR, V5, P37 EASTERLING WE, 1996, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V80, P1 GRIGG D, 1995, INTRO AGR GEOGRAPHY LEWANDROWSKI JK, 1999, LAND ECON, V75, P39 LEWIS JE, 1989, CANADIAN WATER RESOU, V14, P34 MCCRAE T, 2000, ENV SUSTAINABILITY C MENDELSOHN R, 1994, AM ECON REV, V84, P753 MENDELSOHN R, 1996, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V80, P55 MENDELSOHN R, 1999, IMPACT CLIMATE CHANG MOONEY S, 1990, CAN J AGR ECON, V38, P685 PRICE DT, 2000, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V101, P81 PRICE DT, 2001, TRANSIENT CLIMATE CH REINSBOROUGH MJ, 2003, CAN J ECON, V36, P21 SEGERSON K, 1999, IMPACT CLIMATE CHANG SINGH B, 1988, CLIMATE CHANGE DIGES SINGH B, 1991, AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON, V35, P327 SINGH B, 1998, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V38, P51 SMIT B, 1987, CLIMATE CHANGE DIGES SMIT B, 1989, CLIMATE CHANGE DIGES SMIT B, 1989, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V14, P153 SMIT B, 1992, CAN GEOGR, V36, P75 SMIT B, 1996, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V33, P7 NR 43 TC 0 J9 CAN PUBLIC POL-ANAL POLIT BP 163 EP 180 PY 2003 PD JUN VL 29 IS 2 GA 701YG UT ISI:000184196100003 ER PT J AU Antle, JM Capalbo, SM Elliott, ET Paustian, KH TI Adaptation, spatial heterogeneity, and the vulnerability of agricultural systems to climate change and CO2 fertilization: An integrated assessment approach SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 Montana State Univ, Dept Agr Econ & Econ, Bozeman, MT 59717 USA. Univ Nebraska, Sch Nat Resources Sci, Lincoln, NE 68583 USA. Colorado State Univ, Nat Resource Ecol Lab, Ft Collins, CO 80523 USA. RP Antle, JM, Montana State Univ, Dept Agr Econ & Econ, POB 172920, Bozeman, MT 59717 USA. AB In this paper we develop economic measures of vulnerability to climate change with and without adaptation in agricultural production systems. We implement these measures using coupled, site-specific ecosystem and economic simulation models. This modeling approach has two key features needed to study the response of agricultural production systems to climate change: it represents adaptation as an endogenous, non-marginal economic response to climate change; and it provides the capability to represent the spatial variability in bio-physical and economic conditions that interact with adaptive responses. We apply this approach to the dryland grain production systems of the Northern Plains region of the United States. The results support the hypothesis that the most adverse impacts on net returns distributions tend to occur in the areas with the poorest resource endowments and when mitigating effects of CO2 fertilization and adaptation are absent. We find that relative and absolute measures of vulnerability depend on complex interactions between climate change, CO2 level, adaptation, and economic conditions such as relative output prices. The relationship between relative vulnerability and resource endowments varies with assumptions about climate change, adaptation, and economic conditions. Vulnerability measured with respect to an absolute threshold is inversely related to resource endowments in all cases investigated. CR *IPCC WORK GROUP 2, 2001, CLIM CHANG 2001 IMP, P89 *NASS, 1999, PUBL EST DAT *SCS, 1981, USDA AGR HDB, V296, P156 *SCS, 1994, STAT SOIL GEOGR DAT ADAMS RM, 1990, NATURE, V345, P219 ADAMS RM, 1993, CONTEMP POLICY ISSUE, V11, P76 ADAMS RM, 1999, IMPACT CLIMATE CHANG, P18 ANTLE J, 2002, ENVIRON POLLUT, V116, P413 ANTLE JM, 1994, J AGR RESOUR ECON, V19, P1 ANTLE JM, 2001, AM J AGR ECON, V83, P389 ANTLE JM, 2001, EC POLICY REFORMS SU, P169 ANTLE JM, 2002, COMPREHENSIVE ASSESS, P243 CAMPBELL CA, 1997, SOIL ORGANIC MATTER, P317 DALY C, 1994, J APPL METEOROL, V33, P140 DARWIN RF, 1995, 703 USDA EC RES SERV DARWIN RF, 2000, ENVIRON MODEL ASSESS, V5, P157 EASTERLING WE, 1993, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V24, P23 EASTERLING WE, 2001, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V51, P173 HANSEN JW, 2000, AGR SYST, V65, P43 HOUGHTON JT, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995 KAISER HM, 1993, AM J AGR ECON, V75, P387 KAISER HM, 1999, GLOBAL ENV CHANGE AG, P221 LEWANDROWSKI JK, 1999, LAND ECON, V75, P39 LOVELAND TR, 1991, PHOTOGRAMM ENG REM S, V57, P1453 MELILLO JM, 1995, GLOBAL BIOGEOCHEM CY, V9, P407 METHERELL AK, 1993, 4 USDAARS GREAT PLAI OJIMA DS, 1993, WATER AIR SOIL POLL, V70, P643 PARTON WJ, 1994, SSSA SPEC PUBL, V39, P147 PARTON WJ, 1995, GLOBAL CHANGE BIOL, V1, P13 PAUSTIAN KH, 1996, PLANT SOIL, V187, P351 PAUSTIAN KH, 1997, SOIL PROCESSES CARBO, P459 PAUSTIAN KH, 1999, AGROECOSYSTEM BOUNDA ROSENZWEIG C, 1994, IMPLICATIONS CLIMATE SCHIMMELPFENNIG D, 1999, GLOBAL ENV CHANGE AG, P193 NR 34 TC 0 J9 CLIMATIC CHANGE BP 289 EP 315 PY 2004 PD JUN VL 64 IS 3 GA 816HR UT ISI:000221101500002 ER PT J AU Kates, RW TI Cautionary tales: Adaptation and the global poor SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Article RP Kates, RW, RR1,Box 169B, Trenton, ME 04605 USA. AB Many who study global change, particularly from industrialized countries, are optimistic about the capacity of agriculture to successfully adapt to climate change. This optimism is based on historic trends in yield increases, on the spread of cropping systems far beyond their traditional agroecological boundaries, and the inherent flexibility of systems of international trade. Analysis of the success (or in rare cases, failure) of adaptation is by analogy-either to analogous socioeconomic or technological change or to short term environmental change. Such studies have been limited to industrialized countries. This paper uses five analogs from developing countries to examine potential adaptation to global climate change by poor people. Two are studies of comparative developing country responses to drought, flood, and tropical cyclone and to the Sahelian droughts of the 1970s and 80s that illustrate adaptations to climate and weather events:. Two address food production and rapid population growth in South Asia and Africa. Three types of adaptive social costs are considered: the direct costs of adaptation, the costs of adapting to the adaptations, and the costs of failing to adapt. A final analog reviews 30 village-level studies for the role that these social costs of adaptation play in perpetuating poverty and environmental degradation. CR BLAIKIE PM, 1994, RISK NATURAL HAZARDS, V1, P1 BOHLE HG, 1994, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V4, P37 BORLAUG NE, 1971, 35 PRB BURTON I, 1978, ENV HAZARD, V1, P1 BURTON I, 1997, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V20, P1 DALBY D, 1977, DROUGHT AFRICA, V2 DOWNING J, 1987, DROUGHT FAMINE AFRIC DOWNING TE, 1997, MITIGATION ADAPTATIO, V2, P19 EASTERLING WE, 1996, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V80, P1 FISCHER B, 1894, ERGEBNISSE PLANKTON, V4, P1 GLAESER B, 1987, GREEN REVOLUTION REV GLANTZ MH, 1987, PLANNING DROUGHT RED, P297 GLANTZ MH, 1988, SOC RESPONSES REGION GLANTZ MH, 1988, SOC RESPONSES REGION, P113 GRIFFIN KB, 1974, POLITICAL EC AGRARIA HAZELL PBR, 1991, GREEN REVOLUTION REC JIRSTROM M, 1996, WAKE GREEN REVOLUTIO KARITN MB, 1986, GREEN REVOLUTION INT KATES RW, 2 CLARK ENV DEV CTR KATES RW, 1980, 32 USAID OFF EV KATES RW, 1981, MAZINGIRA, V5, P72 KATES RW, 1991, RR912 BROWN U AS FEI KATES RW, 1992, ENVIRONMENT, V34, P4 LIPTON M, 1989, NEW SEEDS POOR PEOPL ROSENBERG NJ, 1993, INTEGRATED IMPACT AS SHIVA V, 1991, ECOLOGIST, V21, P57 SOMRVILLE CM, 1986, DROUGH AID SAHEL DEC TURNER BL, 1993, POPULATION GROWTH AG WATSON RT, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, V1, P1 WISNER BG, 1977, THESIS CLARK U WORCE NR 30 TC 6 J9 CLIMATIC CHANGE BP 5 EP 17 PY 2000 PD APR VL 45 IS 1 GA 323WX UT ISI:000087588900003 ER PT J AU NAKICENOVIC, N NORDHAUS, WD RICHELS, R TOTH, FL TI INTEGRATED ASSESSMENTS OF MITIGATION, IMPACTS AND ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE-CHANGE - INTRODUCTION SO ENERGY POLICY LA English DT Editorial Material NR 0 TC 0 J9 ENERG POLICY BP 251 EP 252 PY 1995 PD APR-MAY VL 23 IS 4-5 GA RT375 UT ISI:A1995RT37500001 ER PT J AU Miles, WFS TI Pigs, politics and social change in Vanuatu SO SOCIETY & ANIMALS LA English DT Article RP Miles, WFS, NORTHEASTERN UNIV,DEPT POLIT SCI,BOSTON,MA 02115. AB Pigs have long held great symbolic import for the people of Vanuatu, a sprawling archipelago 1,000 miles northeast of Australia. In I?lost of the indigenous, small-scale communities which comprised traditional Vanuatu society, pig ownership and pig killing conveyed status, wen]th, and informal power. Such rituals were the sole measure of social standing and political rank. In this study, I show how the cultural valuation of an animal, in this case the pig, can evolve as a society undergoes socio-economic development, and also how it can be used to foster nationalistic partisan, and other political ends. I show how competing nationalist lenders used pig symbolism in their struggle to create a unified national identity for varying island groups, and how even today, local leaders derive their legitimacy through the manipulation of traditional animal rites. CR 1991, ECONOMIST 1214, P43 1995, BRIT FRIENDS VANUATU BEASANT J, 1984, SANTO REBELLION IMPE DAVEY GCL, 1994, SOC ANIM, V2, P17 FUNABIKI T, 1981, VANUATU POLITICS EC, P173 GEERTZ C, 1972, DAEDALUS, V101, P1 GOURGECHON C, 1977, JOURNEY END WORLD HARRIS M, 1966, CURR ANTHROPOL, V7, P51 HARRISSON TH, 1936, GEOGR J, V38, P97 HUME L, 1985, OCEANIA, V55, P272 JOLLY M, 1984, CANBERRA ANTHR, V7, P78 JOLLY M, 1994, WOMEN PLACE KASTOM C LAWRENCE E, 1985, HOOFBEATS SOC STUDIE LAWRENCE E, 1997, HUNTING WREN MACCLANCY J, 1988, INT J MORAL SOCIAL S, V3, P95 MARSHALL AJ, 1937, BLACK MUSKETEERS RAPPAPORT RA, 1967, PIGS ANCESTORS RITUA, V1, P1 RIVERS WHR, 1914, HIST MELANESIAN SOC RODMAN M, 1981, VANUATU POLITICS EC, P85 SHANKLIN E, 1985, ANNU REV ANTHROPOL, V14, P375 SPERLING S, 1988, ANIMAL LIBERATORS RE TONKINSON R, 1982, MANKIND, V13, P4 WILSON EO, 1984, BIOPHILIA NR 23 TC 0 J9 SOC ANIM BP 155 EP 167 PY 1997 VL 5 IS 2 GA XE817 UT ISI:A1997XE81700004 ER PT J AU BUTZER, KW TI ADAPTATION TO GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL-CHANGE SO PROFESSIONAL GEOGRAPHER LA English DT Article RP BUTZER, KW, UNIV CHICAGO,CHICAGO,IL 60637. CR 1979, 2 CTR TECHN ENV DEV *AM ASS ADV SCI WO, 1979, ENV SOC CONS POSS CO ADAMS JAS, 1977, SCIENCE, V196, P54 ADAMS RM, 1978, P AM PHILOS SOC, V122, P329 ALLAND A, 1975, ANN REV ANTHR, V4, P59 BENNETT JW, 1976, ECOLOGICAL TRANSITIO BOLIN B, 1977, SCIENCE, V196, P613 BOWLER JM, 1976, QUATERNARY RES, V6, P359 BUCKLEY W, 1968, MODERN SYSTEMS RES B, P490 BURTON I, 1978, ENV HAZARD, V1, P1 BUTZER KW, 1971, ENV ARCHEOLOGY ECOLO BUTZER KW, 1972, SCIENCE, V175, P1069 BUTZER KW, 1976, EARLY HYDRAULIC CIVI BUTZER KW, 1976, GEOSCIENCE MAN, V13, P27 BUTZER KW, 1977, ILLINOIS STATE MUSEU, V34, P1 BUTZER KW, 1978, GEOGR MAG, V51, P201 BUTZER KW, 1978, QUATERNARY RES, V10, P310 BUTZER KW, 1980, CAUSES CONSEQUENCES BUTZER KW, 1980, PHYSICAL GEOGR, V1, P42 BUTZER KW, 1980, TIMESCALES GEOMORPHO, P131 CLARK JA, 1978, QUATERNARY RES, V9, P265 DENTON GH, 1973, QUATERNARY RES, V3, P155 EHLERS E, 1971, TUBINGER GEOGRAPHISC, V44, P1 ELLIOTT WP, 1979, WORKSHOP GLOBAL EFFE FRENZEL B, 1973, CLIMATIC FLUCTUATION FRENZEL B, 1977, DENDROCHRONOLOGIE PO KEELING CD, 1976, TELLUS, V28, P552 KING JE, 1977, QUATERNARY RES, V8, P307 KIRCH PV, 1980, ADV ARCHAEOLOGICAL M, V3 LADURIE ELR, 1971, TIMES FEAST TIMES FA LAMARCHE VC, 1973, QUATERNARY RES, V3, P632 LAMB HH, 1977, CLIMATE, V2 MACDONALD G, 1979, JSR7807 SRI INT US D MACHTA L, 1977, FATE FOSSIL FUEL CO2, P131 MANABE S, 1975, J ATMOS SCI, V32, P3 MANNERS IR, 1974, PERSPECTIVES ENV MCCLURE HA, 1976, NATURE, V263, P755 MCLEAN DM, 1978, SCIENCE, V201, P401 MORNER NA, 1976, PALAEOGEOGR PALAEOCL, V19, P63 NICHOLS H, 1967, EISZEITALTER GEGENWA, V18, P176 ODUM EP, 1972, ECOSYSTEM STRUCTURE, P11 OLSON JS, 1978, CHANGES GLOBAL CARBO ROTTY RM, 1977, FATE FOSSIL FUEL CO2, P167 SCHNEIDER SH, 1976, GENESIS STRATEGY CLI SHACKLETON NJ, 1973, QUATERNARY RES, V3, P39 SIEGENTHALER U, 1978, SCIENCE, V199, P388 SINGH G, 1972, QUATERNARY RES, V2, P496 STREET FA, 1979, QUATERNARY RES, V12, P83 STUIVER M, 1978, SCIENCE, V199, P253 THOMAS WL, 1956, MANS ROLE CHANGING F VANZEIST W, 1978, REV PALAEOBOT PALYNO, V26, P249 WEBB T, 1972, QUATERNARY RES, V2, P70 WONG CS, 1978, SCIENCE, V200, P197 WOOD WR, 1976, PREHISTORIC MAN HIS WOODWELL GM, 1978, SCIENCE, V199, P141 NR 55 TC 33 J9 PROF GEOGR BP 269 EP 278 PY 1980 VL 32 IS 3 GA KG164 UT ISI:A1980KG16400002 ER PT J AU Cohen, SJ Neilsen, D Smith, S Neale, T Taylor, B Barton, M Merritt, W Alila, Y Shepherd, P McNeill, R Tansey, J Carmichael, J Langsdale, S TI Learning with local help: Expanding the dialogue on climate change and water management in the Okanagan Region, British Columbia, Canada SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 Univ British Columbia, Environm Canada, AIRG, Inst Resources Environm & Sustainabil, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z2, Canada. Agr & Agri Food Canada, Pacific Agr Res Ctr, Summerland, BC, Canada. Univ British Columbia, Inst Resources Environm & Sustainabil, Vancouver, BC V5Z 1M9, Canada. Environm Canada, Vancouver, BC, Canada. Univ British Columbia, Dept Forest Resources Management, Vancouver, BC V5Z 1M9, Canada. RP Cohen, S, Univ British Columbia, Environm Canada, AIRG, Inst Resources Environm & Sustainabil, 2029 W Mall, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z2, Canada. AB The research activity described in this report is a comprehensive regional assessment of the impacts of climate change on water resources and options for adaptation in the Okanagan Basin. The ultimate goal of the project is to develop integrated climate change and water resource scenarios to stimulate a multistakeholder discussion on the implications of climate change for water management in the region. The paper describes two main objectives: (a) providing a set of research products that will be of relevance to regional interests in the Okanagan, and (b) establishing a methodology for participatory integrated assessment of regional climate change impacts and adaptation that could be applied to climate-related concerns in Canada and other countries. This collaborative study has relied on field research, computer-based models, and dialogue exercises to generate an assessment of future implications, and to learn about regional views on the prospects for adaptation. Along the way, it has benefited from strong partnerships with governments, researchers, local water practitioners, and user groups. Building on the scenario-based study components, and a series of interviews and surveys undertaken for the water management and adaptation case study components, a set of stakeholder dialogue sessions were organized which focused on identifying preferred adaptation options and processes for their implementation. Rather than seeking consensus on the "best" option or process, regional interests were asked to consider a range of available options as part of an adaptation portfolio that could address both supply side and demand side aspects of water resources management in the Okanagan. CR 2003, WATERSHED NEWS *CAN BRIT COL CONS, 1974, SUMM REP CONS BOARD ALLEN RG, 1998, 56 FAO ARNELL NW, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 BRUCE J, 2000, WATER SECTOR VULNERA BURTON I, 2002, CLIM POLICY, V2, P145 CEBON P, 1998, VIEWS ALPS REGIONAL COHEN SJ, 2001, UNPUB WATER MANAGEME COHEN SJ, 2003, EXPANDING DIALOGUE C COHEN SJ, 2004, DECISION LOOK AHEAD, P175 COHEN SJ, 2004, EXPANDING DIALOGUE C COHEN SJ, 1997, MACKENZIE BASIN IMPA COHEN SJ, 2000, WATER INT, V25, P253 DAHINDEN U, 2003, PUBLIC PARTICIPATION, P105 DALY C, 1994, J APPL METEOROL, V33, P140 DELOE R, 2001, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V11, P231 DOWNING TE, 2003, PUBLIC PARTICIPATION, P187 EMBLEY E, 2001, WATER MANAGEMENT CLI, P8 GREGORY RS, 1994, MANAGE SCI, V40, P1035 HAMLET AF, 1999, J AM WATER RESOUR AS, V35, P1597 HAMLET AF, 2003, TRANSBOUNDARY CHALLE HISSCHEMOLLER M, 2001, INTEGRATED ASSESSMEN, V2, P57 HRASKO R, 2003, CONSERVATION OPTIONS IVEY J, 2001, STRENGTHENING RURAL JOHNSON C, 2004, VANCOUVER SUN 0709 KASEMIR B, 2003, PUBLIC PARTIICPATION KEENEY RL, 2001, RISK ANAL, V21, P989 LOUKAS A, 2002, J HYDROL, V259, P163 MENDELSOHN R, 1999, IMPACT CLIMATE CHANG MERRITT W, 2004, UNPUB EXPANDING DIAL, P63 MERRITT WS, UNPUB J HYDROLOGY MERRITT WS, 2003, EXPANDING DIALOGUE C, P27 MILES EL, 2000, J AM WATER RESOUR AS, V36, P399 MILLER KA, 2000, DROUGHT GLOBAL ASSES, V2, P70 MOORHOUSE J, 2003, PRENTICTON HERA 0731 MORRISON J, 2002, J HYDROL, V263, P230 MOTE P, 1999, JISAO CONTRIBUTION NEILSEN D, 2001, IMPACT CLIMATE CHANG NEILSEN D, 2003, UNPUB EXPANDING DIAL, P58 NEILSEN D, 2004, EXPANDING DIALOGUE C, P115 QUICK MC, 1995, COMPUTER MODELS WATE, P233 ROTMANS J, 1996, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V34, P327 SCHLUMPF C, 2001, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V51, P199 SCHRINER D, 1998, REGIONAL IMPACTS CLI, P253 SHEPHERD P, UNPUB CLIM CHANGE SHEPHERD P, 2004, EXPANDING DIALOGUE C, P137 SMIT B, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 SQUIRE JP, 2000, KELOWNA DAILY C 0903 STEEVES J, 2001, KELOWNA CAPITAL 0314 TANSEY J, 2002, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V12, P97 TANSEY J, 2004, EXPANDING DIALOGUE C, P165 TAYLOR B, 2003, EXPANDING DIALOGUE C, P16 VANASSELT MBA, 2002, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V12, P167 VANDEKERKHOF M, 2004, DEBATING CLIMATE CHA NR 54 TC 0 J9 CLIMATIC CHANGE BP 331 EP 358 PY 2006 PD APR VL 75 IS 3 GA 046EC UT ISI:000237793200003 ER PT J AU Hall, TJ Walker, RW TI Pasture legume adaptation to six environments of the seasonally dry tropics of north Queensland SO TROPICAL GRASSLANDS LA English DT Article C1 Dept Primary Ind & Fisheries, Youngstown, OH 44555 USA. RP Hall, TJ, Dept Primary Ind & Fisheries, POB 308, Youngstown, OH 44555 USA. AB Production, regeneration and persistence of summer-growing pasture legumes were studied in plots (26 accessions) in 3 sub-coastal environments (> 600 m elevation) and in rows (92 accessions) in 3 inland environments (< 200 m elevation) in the seasonally dry tropics of north Queensland. In the plots, the annuals Aeschynomene americana and Centrosema pascuorum and the perennials Stylosanthes scabra, S. hamata and Chamaecrista rotundifolia were most productive, yielding up to 4.5 and 7.6 t/ha DM, respectively, on grey and red earths and a red duplex soil. Annuals regenerated poorly in low rainfall years, but populations and production of the Stylosanthes species and C rotundifolia cv. Wynn remained adequate for commercial pastures in all years, and increased in a high rainfall year. Macroptilium gracile cv. Maldonado was planted at only one site and produced a peak yield of 6.2 t/ha DM and had most spread (> 30 m) during the experiment. In the row experiments, legume establishment and production were restricted by drought on the red earth and grey clay soils, and by waterlogging on a hard-setting solodic soil. After 4 years of drought and grazing, none of the 72 legumes sow on the fertile red earth had survived, although there was subsequent regeneration from seed. Desmanthus species and Clitoria ternatea were most productive and persistent, over 15 years, on the cracking clay soil, and Stylosanthes scabra cv. Seca and S. hamata cv. Verano were the only survivors on the solodic soil. Environmental limitations of the current pasture legume cultivars havebeen identified and legume genera are suggested for further evaluation and development under commercial grazing management and for special purpose pastures in these environments. CR BETHEL J, 1996, TROP GRASSLANDS, V30, P110 BISHOP HG, 1985, QUEENSLAND AGR J, V111, P241 BLUMENTHAL MJ, 1993, TROPICAL GRASSLANDS, V27, P16 BURROWS DM, 1993, TROP GRASSLANDS, V27, P100 CAMERON DG, 1986, QUEENSLAND AGR J, V112, P59 CLEM RL, 1994, AUST J EXP AGR ANIM, V34, P161 CLEMENTS RJ, 1996, TROP GRASSLANDS, V30, P31 CLEMENTS RJ, 1996, TROP GRASSLANDS, V30, P389 COATES DB, 1997, TROP GRASSLANDS, V31, P494 COOK SJ, 1993, TROP GRASSLANDS, V27, P335 COOKSON MR, 2003, NEUROMOL MED, V3, P1 EDYE LA, 1991, TROP GRASSLANDS, V25, P1 GARDINER CP, 1995, TROP GRASSLANDS, V29, P183 GILBERT MA, 1987, AUSTR J EXPT AGR, V27, P93 HALL TH, 1985, TROPICAL GRASSLANDS, V19, P156 HALL TJ, 1978, TROPICAL GRASSLANDS, V12, P10 HALL TJ, 1987, AUSTR PLANT INTRO RE, V19, P1 HALL TJ, 1995, TROP GRASSLANDS, V29, P169 HALL TJ, 2004, ACIAR MONOGRAPH, V111, P51 HOLROYD RG, 1983, AUST J EXP AGR ANIM, V23, P4 MCCOSKER TH, 1975, QUEENSLAND AGR J, V101, P222 MILLS AK, 1997, MYCOLOGIST, V11, P31 MOTT JJ, 1976, AUST J AGR RES, V27, P811 NORTHCOTE KH, 1979, FACTUAL KEY RECOGNIT PARTRIDGE I, 1996, INFORM SERIES Q19601 PARTRIDGE IJ, 1992, TROP GRASSLANDS, V26, P263 PENGELLY BC, 1996, CS054185 MRC CSIRO Q PENGELLY BC, 1996, DAQ053081 MRC CSIRO PENGELLY BC, 1996, TROP GRASSLANDS, V30, P298 WALKER BH, 1990, TROP GRASSLANDS, V24, P257 WILLIAMS J, 1984, BIOL AGRONOMY STYLOS, P181 WINKS L, 1973, TROPICAL GRASSLANDS, V7, P201 WINTER WH, 1996, AUST J EXP AGR, V36, P947 YUHAENI S, 1994, TROP GRASSLANDS, V28, P1 NR 34 TC 0 J9 TROP GRASSLANDS BP 182 EP 196 PY 2005 PD SEP VL 39 IS 3 GA 018XL UT ISI:000235798000006 ER PT B AU Timmerman, P TI Vulnerability, Resilience and the Collapse of Society SO ENV MONOGRAPH DT Book C1 University of Toronto, Institute of Environmental Studies, Toronto, Canada AB The impetus for this paper came from two sources. First, the concern for the development of a competent social component in the World Climate Program being undertaken by the World Meteorological Organization led to the following declaration by the World Climate Conference of one main objective of their Impact Study Program: Determining the characteristics of human societies at different levels of development and in different natural environments which make them either specially vulnerable or specially resilient to climatic variability and change and which also permit them to take advantage of the opportunities posed by such changes (WMO 1980). Admirable as this objective is, it is difficult not to see it as partaking in the general vagueness which attends much of climatic impact assessment at the present time, and which has been admirably described by Kates (1980): The underlying assumptions of models are poorly defined. Studies with widely varying subject matter are characterized under a common rubric of impact study. Techniques are poorly developed methodologically and are weakly integrated beyond the discipline in which they were first initiated. For example, it is hard to say just what “vulnerability” and ”resilience” are. One source of this paper, then, was a concern that some of the concepts coming to the forefront in the fast growing subject of climatic impact assessment. were under-examined. Some discussion of terms, concepts, and models - those often unconscious shapers of research frameworks - seemed advisable. Munn (1979) makes the distinction between a climate impact assessment and a climate impact study, of which the first is a policy-shaping document, and the second a research or applied study. It is worth taking steps to ensure that we are not falling between both these categories, and are instead about to embark on policy disguised as research. The second source for this paper was the particular concernofthe Atmospheric Environment Service (Environment Canada) that the Canadian Climate Program should be as effective as possible. Atmospheric Environment has a long and enlightened tradition of concern for climatic impacts and the welfare of the users of the meteorological imformation it provides. To this end, it has provided funding for projects at the Institute for Environmental Studies and elsewhere which attempt to bridge the gap between the technical and the social use of climatic information. In the present instance, it will be noted that, apart from a predominance of references to instances of climatic resilience and vulnerability, and the discussion in the last section of this paper, there is little here of direct or immediate relevance to the daily requirements of AES. On the one hand, one could ascribe this to the typical result of much of social science (to the despair of the “hard” scientist), which inevitably concludes that the problem is itself problematic; on the other, it could be that what is presented here is only one part of an immensely difficult attempt to say anything worthwhile about the relationship between climate and society - the charting of the interactions between a system indeterminate through sheer complexity, and a system indeterminate through sheer complexity and sheer humanity. CR BURTON I, 1978, ENV HAZARD, V1, P1 HOLLING CS, 1973, ANNUAL REV ECOLOGY S, V4, P1 RAPPAPORT RA, 1977, EVOLUTION SOCIAL SYS, V1, P49 WHITE GF, 1974, NATURAL HAZARDS LOCA, V1, P1 NR 3 TC 0 BP 1 EP 45 PY 1981 VL 1 IS 1 ER PT J AU Little, MA Garruto, RM TI Human adaptability research into the beginning of the third millennium SO HUMAN BIOLOGY LA English DT Article C1 SUNY Binghamton, Dept Anthropol, Binghamton, NY 13902 USA. RP Little, MA, SUNY Binghamton, Dept Anthropol, Binghamton, NY 13902 USA. AB Human adaptability, as a field of inquiry within human biology, became defined during the research activities of the International Biological Program (IBP) (1964-1974). During this period, research was focused on ecological, physiological, and genetic studies of human populations within the theoretical frameworks of adaptation and evolution. Other defining characteristics of the IBP human adaptability research were standardization of methods, multidisciplinary projects, international cooperation, and a concern with human health issues. Some observers suggest that this research contributed to the ongoing transformation of physical anthropology and related fields from a largely descriptive to an analytical science. During the 25 years between the end of the IBP and the present, a number of research trends have continued: Several new multidisciplinary projects were initiated and completed; a subfield of demography within human biology has matured; nutrition, infant and child growth, and health studies have proliferated; and molecular generics and DNA analysis have superseded the earlier population genetics. International programs today are geared toward more practical and applied studies with less emphasis on basic science. Continuation of human adapt ability research into the 21st century is likely to make contributions in 3 broad areas: population, environment, and health. Productive research is likely to contribute to these 3 areas in the following categories: reproduction, psychosocial stress, life span approaches to health, effects of losses in biodiversity on health, a human biology of poverty, emerging infectious diseases, epidemiology of modernization, evolutionary medicine, and aging. The success of much of this research in its contribution to knowledge will come from the integrated perspectives of a biobehavioral framework of inquiry. 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AM J HUM GENET, V51, A163 WILSON EO, 1988, BIODIVERSITY, P3 WOLFF EN, 1996, TOP HEAVY INCREASING WOOD JW, 1994, DYNAMICS HUMAN REPRO YOSHIMURA H, 1966, HUMAN ADAPTABILITY I ZEMEL BS, 1986, AM J PHYS ANTHROPOL, V71, P459 ZUBROW EBW, 1976, DEMOGRAPHIC ANTHR QU NR 129 TC 0 J9 HUM BIOL BP 179 EP 199 PY 2000 PD FEB VL 72 IS 1 GA 287KQ UT ISI:000085505400008 ER PT J AU Wigley, TML TI Choosing a stabilization target for CO2 SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 Natl Ctr Atmospher Res, Climate & Global Dynam Div, Boulder, CO 80307 USA. RP Wigley, TML, Natl Ctr Atmospher Res, Climate & Global Dynam Div, POB 3000, Boulder, CO 80307 USA. AB The choice of stabilization target for CO2 concentration depends on the following: what is considered to be 'dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system'; the forcings that might arise from non-CO2 gases; and the climate sensitivity. These three factors are specified here probabilistically, as probability density functions (pdfs), and combined to produce a pdf for the CO2 concentration target. There is a probability of 17% that the stabilization target should be less than the present level, and the median target is 536 ppm. The effects of reducing the emissions of non-CO2 gases and/or implementing adaptation strategies are considered probabilistically and shown to alter these figures significantly. 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Monash Univ, Sch Geog & Environm Sci, Clayton, Vic 3800, Australia. Univ Colorado, CIRES, Boulder, CO 80309 USA. RP Brunner, RD, Univ Colorado, Ctr Publ Policy Res, Boulder, CO 80309 USA. AB The purpose of the research reported here is to help the community in Barrow, Alaska, clarify its vulnerability to extreme weather events, and devise better-informed policies for reducing that vulnerability and adapting to climate variability and change. We examine the worst disaster on record there-a storm that struck on 3 October 1963-from different disciplinary perspectives and in the context of other severe storms. The major policy responses to date have been a beach nourishment program, a feasibility study of additional means of erosion control, and an emergency management plan. Additional possible responses have been identified in the community's cumulative experience of these storms, but have not yet been fully explored or implemented. 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RP Luo, QY, Univ Adelaide, Dept Geog & Environm Studies, Mawson Grad Ctr Environm Studies, Adelaide, SA 5005, Australia. AB During the last decades, a large number of climate change impact studies on agriculture have been conducted qualitatively and quantitatively in many regions of the Asia-Pacific. Changes in average climate conditions and climate variability will have a significant consequence on crop yields in many parts of the Asia-Pacific. Crop yield and productivity changes will vary considerably across the region. Vulnerability to climate change depends not only on physical and biological response but also on socioeconomic characteristics. Adaptation strategies that consider changes in crop varieties or in the timing of agricultural activities imply low costs and, if readily undertaken, can compensate for some of the yield loss simulated with the climate change scenarios. The studies reviewed here suggest that the regions of Tropical Asia appear to be among the more vulnerable; some areas of Temperate Asia also appear to be vulnerable. CR *AS DEV BANK, 1994, REG STUD GLOB ENV IS *INT PAN CLIM CHAN, 1996, CLIM CHANG 1995 IMP AGGARWAL PK, 1993, J AGR METEOROL, V48, P811 AMADORE LA, 1996, WATER AIR SOIL POLL, V92, P1 AMIEN I, 1996, WATER AIR SOIL POLL, V92, P29 ANGLO EG, 1996, REG WORKSH CLIM CHAN BAYASGALAN S, 1996, ADAPTING CLIMATE CHA, P164 BAZZAZ FA, 1996, GLOBAL CHANGE TERRES, P43 BRAMMER H, 1994, 3 BUP BUAN RD, 1996, WATER AIR SOIL POLL, V92, P41 DIAZ S, 1995, J BIOGEOGR, V22, P289 ESCANO CR, 1994, IMPLICATIONS CLIMATE HULME M, 1992, CLIMATE CHANGE DUE G IGLESIAS A, 1996, WATER AIR SOIL POLL, V92, P13 JIN Z, 1994, IMPLICATIONS CLIMATE, P1 KARIM Z, 1996, WATER AIR SOIL POLL, V92, P53 KAVALERCHIK S, 1995, OVERALL APPROACHES P, P49 LAL M, 1997, ATR196 IND I TECHN C LIN ED, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE VULNE, V92, P63 LIN JC, 1994, ADV ELECTROMAG FIELD, V1, P1 LU LS, 1991, PRODUCTIVE STRUCTURE LU LS, 1991, STUDIES MEDIUM LONG MATTHEWS RB, 1995, MODELING IMPACTS CLI PARRY ML, 1992, POTENTIAL SOCIOECONO PILIFOSOVA O, 1996, VULNERABILITY ADAPTA, P161 QURESHI A, 1994, IMPLICATIONS CLIMATE RAO DG, 1994, IMPLICATIONS CLIMATE RAO DG, 1995, ASA SPEC PUBL, V59, P325 TONGYAI C, 1994, IMPLICATIONS CLIMATE WANG JH, 1996, WATER AIR SOIL POLL, V92, P75 WIJERATNE MA, 1996, WATER AIR SOIL POLL, V92, P87 ZHANG H, 1993, CLIMATE CHANGE ITS I, P131 NR 32 TC 2 J9 CLIMATIC CHANGE BP 729 EP 743 PY 1999 PD DEC VL 43 IS 4 GA 248KD UT ISI:000083272900005 ER PT J AU Chu, CYC Tai, C TI Ecosystem resilience, specialized adaptation and population decline: A modern Malthusian theory SO JOURNAL OF POPULATION ECONOMICS LA English DT Article C1 Acad Sinica, Inst Econ, Taipei 115, Taiwan. RP Chu, CYC, Acad Sinica, Inst Econ, 21 Hsu Cho Rd, Taipei 115, Taiwan. AB The purpose of this article is to construct a theoretical framework characterizing the interactions among economic development, ecosystem equilibrium and possible population decline, and to discuss the population dynamics in the very long run. In our framework, economic activities bridge population and environment. On the one hand, human beings reform the environment through economic activities; on the other hand, economic activities decrease environmental resilience and increase the possibility of an environmental change in a discontinuous and irreversible pattern, as described in Arrow et al. (1995). Furthermore, a highly developed economy also causes over-specialization of human adaptation: which tends to exaggerate the impact of an environmental change on human population size. CR ARROW K, 1995, SCIENCE, V268, P520 CHU CYC, 1998, INCREASING RETURN EC CHU CYC, 1998, POPULATION DYNAMICS DARWIN C, 1964, ORIGIN SPECIES DOBZHANSKY T, 1961, AM SCI, V49, P285 GOODFRIEND M, 1995, AM ECON REV, V85, P116 GOULD J, 1977, EVER DARWIN REFLECTI HARVEY B, 1977, ENV SOC INTRO ANAL LEE RD, 1986, STATE POPULATION THE LI Y, 1996, J GEN EDUC, V3, P15 MALTHUS TR, 1789, ESSAY PRINCIPLE POPU MEADOWS DH, 1992, BEYOND LIMITS MEDAWAR PB, 1965, MAYO CLIN P, V40, P23 NERLOVE M, 1991, AM AGR EC ASS, V73, P1335 RENSHAW E, 1991, MODELLING BIOL POPUL SHAW JS, 1990, EC ENV RECONCILIATIO SMITH F, 1996, ECOL ECON, V16, P191 SWANSON TM, 1995, EC ECOLOGY BIODIVERS WILLIAMS GC, 1966, ADAPTATION NATURAL S YANG X, 1993, SPECIALIZATION EC OR ZIMMERMANN EW, 1951, WORLD RESOURCES IND NR 21 TC 0 J9 J POPUL ECON BP 7 EP 19 PY 2001 PD APR VL 14 IS 1 GA 434VZ UT ISI:000168837700002 ER PT J AU Bharwani, S Bithell, M Downing, TE New, M Washington, R Ziervogel, G TI Multi-agent modelling of climate outlooks and food security on a community garden scheme in Limpopo, South Africa SO PHILOSOPHICAL TRANSACTIONS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY B-BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES LA English DT Article C1 Stockholm Environm Inst, Oxford Office, Summertown OX2 7DL, England. Univ Cambridge, Dept Geog, Cambridge CB2 3EN, England. Univ Oxford, Sch Geog & Environm, Oxford OX1 3QY, England. Univ Cape Town, Dept Environm & Geog Sci, ZA-7701 Rondebosch, South Africa. RP Bharwani, S, Stockholm Environm Inst, Oxford Office, 266 Banbury Rd,Suite 193, Summertown OX2 7DL, England. AB Seasonal climate outlooks provide one tool to help decision-makers allocate resources in anticipation of poor, fair or good seasons. The aim of the 'Climate Outlooks and Agent-Based Simulation of Adaptation in South Africa' project has been to investigate whether individuals, who adapt gradually to annual climate variability, are better equipped to respond to longer-term climate variability and change in a sustainable manner. Seasonal climate outlooks provide information on expected annual rainfall and thus can be used to adjust seasonal agricultural strategies to respond to expected climate conditions. A case study of smallholder farmers in a village in Vhembe district, Limpopo Province, South Africa has been used to examine how such climate outlooks might influence agricultural strategies and how this climate information can be improved to be more useful to farmers. Empirical field data has been collected using surveys, participatory approaches and computer-based knowledge elicitation tools to investigate the drivers of decision-making with a focus on the role of climate, market and livelihood needs. This data is used in an agent-based social simulation which incorporates household agents with varying adaptation options which result in differing impacts on crop yields and thus food security, as a result of using or ignoring the seasonal outlook. Key variables are the skill of the forecast, the social communication of the forecast and the range of available household and community-based risk coping strategies. This research provides a novel approach for exploring adaptation within the context of climate change. CR *FAO, 2004, STAT FOOD INS WORLD *UNITAR, 2004, NATL ADAPTATION PROG ARCHER ERM, 2003, B AM METEOROL SOC, V84, P1525 BHARWANI S, 2004, THESIS U KENT, P57 BUCHLER I, 1986, ADV MATH ANTHR, P57 CLOVER J, 2003, FOOD SECURITY SUBSAH DOWNING TE, 2003, CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPT, P77 FISCHER M, 2002, CYBERNET SYST, V1, P367 FISCHER MD, 1980, THESIS U TEXAS AUSTI FISCHER MD, 1994, APPL COMPUTING SOCIA GILBERT N, 1999, SIMULATION SOCIAL SC GODDARD L, 2001, INT J CLIMATOL, V21, P1111 GOLDMAN A, 1995, HUM ECOL, V23, P291 KATES RW, 1985, CLIMATE IMPACT ASSES LIM B, 2005, ADAPTATION POLICY FR MCGRAW KL, 1989, KNOWLEDGE ACQUISITIO MURPHY SJ, 2001, NAT HAZARDS, V23, P171 PATT A, 2005, GEOSCIENCES, V337, P411 STAINFORTH DA, 2005, NATURE, V433, P403 STERN PC, 1999, MAKING CLIMATE FOREC WASHINGTON R, 1999, GEOGR J 3, V165, P255 ZIERVOGEL G, 2003, AREA, V35, P403 ZIERVOGEL G, 2004, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V65, P73 ZIERVOGEL G, 2004, GEOGR J 1, V170, P6 ZIERVOGEL G, 2005, AGR SYST, V83, P1 NR 25 TC 5 J9 PHIL TRANS ROY SOC B-BIOL SCI BP 2183 EP 2194 PY 2005 PD NOV 29 VL 360 IS 1463 GA 986CS UT ISI:000233427400017 ER PT J AU Macintyre, M Foale, S TI Politicized ecology: Local responses to mining in Papua New Guinea SO OCEANIA LA English DT Article C1 Univ Melbourne, Parkville, Vic 3052, Australia. Australian Natl Univ, Canberra, ACT, Australia. RP Macintyre, M, Univ Melbourne, Parkville, Vic 3052, Australia. AB Our paper draws on research in two sites where large goldmining projects are located Misima and Lihir islands in Papua New Guinea. We examine the socio-economic context in which criticisms of environmental degradation arise. We discuss the social and political meanings embedded in local demands for compensation for environmental damage, drawing attention to the disparities between local Melanesian conceptions of the environment and global, Western ideas that inform international environmentalist criticisms of mining. We dispute the 'romantic primitivism' of some environmentalist discourse, using the work of ethno-ecologists and case studies of specific incidents on these islands, contesting the view that there is a natural conservationist ethic in Melanesia. The image of the 'noble primitive ecologist' that some environmentalists appeal to, would in most circumstances be rejected by Melanesians as racist and paternalistic, but is embraced as a strategy in conflicts with mining companies and when making legal claims for compensation. Alliances formed between landowners, environmentalists and western lawyers against mining companies such as BHP and Rio Tinto are based more on shared political ends than on the epistemological consistency of their perceptions of environmental damage from mining. Local Melanesian communities claim sovereignty over all resources and their compensation claims for environmental degradation constitute a new form of resource rent. CR *DEP AGR LIV, 1993, DIDIMAN NEWSLETTER, V25 *PLAC DOM AS PAC S, 2000, UPD ACT SUST PDAP 19 *US DISTR COURT CE, 2000, COMPL *WORLD BANK, 2003, INT C HOST WORLD BAN AKIN D, 1999, CONTEMP PACIFIC, V11, P35 BANKS G, 1997, OK TEDI SETTLEMENT I BANKS G, 2000, ASIA PACIFIC VIEWPOI, V41, P217 BANKS G, 2002, CONTEMP PACIFIC, V14, P39 BAYLISSSMITH T, 2003, AMBIO, V32, P346 BREWER D, 2001, ASSESSMENT MINE IMPA BULMER R, 1982, TRADITIONAL CONSERVA, P59 BURTON B, 2000, MINING MONITOR, V5, P7 BYFORD J, 2001, ONE DAY RICH COMMUNI CLARKE WC, 1997, CONTEMP PACIFIC, V9, P12 CONNELL JH, 1978, SCIENCE, V199, P1302 ELLIS JA, 1997, RACE RAINFOREST, V2 EVANS G, 2001, MOVING MOUNTAINS COM FILER C, 1988, 21188 U PAP NEW GUIN FILER C, 1989, SOCIAL EC IMPACT GOL FILER C, 1997, LAW REFORM COMMISSIO, V6, P156 FILER C, 1998, MODERN PAPUA NEW GUI, P147 FILER C, 1998, POLICY WORKS FORESTS, V2 FLANNERY T, 1998, THROWIM WAY LEG HYNDMAN D, 2000, CULTURAL ANAL, V1, P15 KREBS C, 1994, ECOLOGY EXPT ANAL DI LUTZ C, 1993, READING NATL GEOGRAP MACINTYRE M, 1983, J PAC HIST, V18, P11 MAY RM, 1973, STABILITY COMPLEXITY MEAD AR, 1973, MALACOLOGIA, V14, P437 MOODY R, 2000, UNKNOWN REGIONS MORAUTA L, 1982, IASER MONOGRAPH, V16 RAPPAPORT RA, 1967, PIGS ANCESTORS RITUA, V1, P1 RAPPAPORT RA, 1971, MAN CULTURE SOC, P237 ROTMANN S, 2001, PROGR REPORT 2001 TI SCHMID CK, 1999, CHANGING PROJECTIONS, V36 SCOONES I, 1999, ANNU REV ANTHROPOL, V28, P479 SEMOS J, 1997, THESIS J COOK U STURZENHOFECKER G, 1994, CANBERRA ANTHR, V17, P27 THOMAS S, 2003, IN PRESS MARINE POLL VANHELDEN F, 1998, CASH CONVICTION SOCI VANHELDEN F, 2001, THICKET DISENTANGLIN WEINER J, 2001, MINING INDIGENOUS LI, P1 WORSLEY PM, 1957, TRUMPET SHALL SOUND NR 43 TC 0 J9 OCEANIA BP 231 EP 251 PY 2004 PD MAR VL 74 IS 3 GA 849ID UT ISI:000223531000003 ER PT J AU KRAPFENBAUER, A WRIESSNIG, K TI ANTHROPOGENIC ENVIRONMENTAL-POLLUTION - THE SHARE OF AGRICULTURE SO BODENKULTUR LA German DT Article RP KRAPFENBAUER, A, AGR UNIV VIENNA,INST WALDOKOL,PETER JORDAN STR 82,A-1190 VIENNA,AUSTRIA. AB The increase of environmental pollution is in direct relation to the consumption of fossil coal, gas and oil and the progressive growth of the world population. Since 1950 these issues increased considerably and they will continue to increase in the future. At the moment the population increases by 1.9 %, the consumption of energy between 2 and 3 % and the environmental pollution up to 3.5 % annually. With the progressive growth of the world population and the increase in prosperity in the developed countries the demand for food increased also progressively and therewith the productivity index of the units of arable land, by growing consumption of fertilizers and the installation of irrigation systems. At the same time the pollution of air, water and soil caused by agriculture also grew progressively. But up to date there is still a shortcoming of reliable statistical facts and figures. A higher productivity index of the units of arable land in the different ecoclimatic zones of the earth leads to higher production and consumption by an inevitably higher turnover of plant nutrients and diverse gaseous substances, for example carbon mono- and dioxide, diverse compounds of nitrogen etc. At the same time an excess of the ''critical loads'' for soil, air and water must be expected. The main items of the emissions produced by an intensified agriculture are, besides carbon mono- and dioxide, methane, nitric and nitrous oxide, ammonia and diverse hydrocarbons. A higher productivity index is consequently related to a higher consumption. This also leads to an intensified turnover of carbon dioxide. There is consequently a progressive input of carbon dioxide resulting from the emissions of burning fossil fuel in the recently produced and consumed biomass. This inevitably leads to a higher level of carbon dioxide in the air. A main source of emissions of methane and ammonia is animal breeding. In Austria at this time from each of the 3,508.000 hectars of land used by agriculture annual emissions of 63 kg methane and 11 kg ammonia are resulting theoretically. The use of organic and inorganic fertilizers, the growing cultivation of legumes and the emissions of nitrogen compounds resulting from burning processes elevate likewise the pool and the annual turnover of nitrogen compounds by production and consumption of biomass. Inevitably related to it is a growing amount of the annual input of nitrogen compounds to the air, the soil and the water. A rough approximation says that at present agriculture contributes to the global anthropogenic pollution of the environment (air, soil and water) 85 % of the ammonia, 81 % of the nitrous oxide, 35 % of nitric mono- and dioxide, 70 % of the methane, 52 % of the carbon monoxide and 21 % of the carbon dioxide. Not considered in the figure for carbon dioxide is the inevitable increase of the level of CO2 in the air by the elevated turnover of biomass. The world population growth in the future leads to an increasing contribution of agriculture to the anthropogenic environmental pollution. For the developed countries this is an obligatory challenge to avoid surplus production. On a global scale there must be a sensible reduction of animal breeding to reduce the high emissions of methane and ammonia from this sector of agriculture. It must also be considered, that by feeding animals with vegetable food stuff, which also could be used for direct nutrition of man, the efficiency of it is lowered by a factor of 1:10. In spite of a growing crisis to maintain the alimentation of the growing world population in many countries the nutrition of man must rapidly be centered on vegetable food stuff rich in protein. At the same time an essential reduction of the environmental pollution resulting from animal breeding could be realized. Beside of it and other reducing issues a continuous growth of the world population, the energy consumption and environmental pollution will make it necessary to observe the development and reactions in the environment by monitoring and phenological observations. The results must be used to counteract finally by looking for adaptation strategies. Considering the realities it must be realized that by all means to mobilize for counteracting the environmental pollution directly, a certain climate change will be inevitable. The consequences will also be an outstanding challenge for the agriculture. NR 0 TC 3 J9 BODENKULTUR BP 269 EP 283 PY 1995 PD AUG VL 46 IS 3 GA TA930 UT ISI:A1995TA93000008 ER PT J AU Balee, W TI The research program of historical ecology SO ANNUAL REVIEW OF ANTHROPOLOGY LA English DT Review C1 Tulane Univ, Dept Anthropol, New Orleans, LA 70118 USA. RP Balee, W, Tulane Univ, Dept Anthropol, New Orleans, LA 70118 USA. AB Historical ecology is a new interdisciplinary research program concerned with comprehending temporal and spatial dimensions in the relationships of human societies to local environments and the cumulative global effects of these relationships. Historical ecology contains core postulates that concern qualitative types of human-mediated disturbance of natural environments and the effect of these on species diversity, among other parameters. A central term used in historical ecology to situate human behavior and agency in the environment is the landscape, as derived from historical geography, instead of the ecosystem, which is from systems ecology. Historical ecology is similar to nonequilibrium dynamic theory, but differs in its postulate of human-mediated disturbance as a principle of landscape transformation. Such disturbances counterintuitively may involve anthropogenic primary and secondary succession that result in net increases of alpha and even beta diversity. Applied historical ecology can supply the reference conditions of time depth and traditional knowledge to restore past landscapes. 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1999, HUM ECOL, V27, P167 VERHEYEN K, 2004, WHAT HIST CAN TEACH VIEIRA ICG, 2001, BIOL CULTURAL DIVERS WALKER KJ, 2000, J ETHNOBIOL, V20, P269 WALKER LR, 2003, PRIMARY SUCCESSION E WINTHROP KR, 2001, HIST ECOLOGY LANDSCA WISEMAN FM, 1978, PREHISPANIC MAYA AGR, P63 WITKOWSKI SR, 1983, LANGUAGE, V59, P569 WOLF ER, 1982, EUROPE PEOPLE HIST WOLF ER, 1999, AM ANTHROPOL, V101, P19 WOLSCHKEBULMAHN J, 2004, NATURE GERMAN HIST, P74 WORSTER D, 1993, WEALTH NATURE ENV HI WORSTER D, 1994, ANTURES EC HIST ECOL ZENT EL, 2004, ETHNOBOTANY CONVERSA, P79 ZIMMERER KS, 1993, J HIST GEOGR, V19, P15 ZIMMERER KS, 2000, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V90, P356 NR 169 TC 1 J9 ANNU REV ANTHROPOL BP 75 EP 98 PY 2006 VL 35 GA 105MA UT ISI:000242032900005 ER PT J AU Fraisse, CW Breuer, NE Zierden, D Bellow, JG Paz, J Cabrera, VE Garcia, AGY Ingram, KT Hatch, U Hoogenboom, G Jones, JW OBrien, JJ TI AgClimate: A climate forecast information system for agricultural risk management in the southeastern USA SO COMPUTERS AND ELECTRONICS IN AGRICULTURE LA English DT Article C1 Univ Florida, Dept Agr & Biol Engn, Gainesville, FL 32611 USA. Univ Miami, Rosenstiel Sch Marine & Atmospher Sci, Coral Gables, FL 33124 USA. Florida State Univ, Ctr Ocean Atmospher Predict Studies, Tallahassee, FL 32306 USA. Univ Georgia, Dept Biol & Agr Engn, Athens, GA 30602 USA. Auburn Univ, Inst Environm, Auburn, AL 36849 USA. RP Fraisse, CW, Univ Florida, Dept Agr & Biol Engn, Gainesville, FL 32611 USA. AB Seasonal climate variability plays an important role in the production risks faced by producers. The majority of crop failures in the USA are associated with either a lack or excess of rainfall. Climate forecasts can be used to reduce risks faced by an agricultural enterprise, but simply providing better climate forecasts to potential users is not enough. Climate information only has value when there is a clearly defined adaptive response and a benefit once the content of the information is considered in the decision making process. AgClimate is a response to the need for information and tools on proactive adaptations to seasonal and interannual climate variability forecasts in the southeastern USA. Extension agents, agricultural producers, forest managers, crop consultants, and policy makers may use this decision support system to aid in decision making concerning management adjustments in light of climate forecasts. Adaptations include those that might mitigate potential losses as well those with the potential to produce optimal yields. AgClimate is a web-based climate forecast and information system that was designed and implemented in partnership with the Cooperative State Extension Service. It has two main components: the front-end interface and a set of dynamic tools. The main navigation menu includes the AgClimate tools, climate forecasts, and management options for crops, forestry, pasture, and livestock. It a, so includes a climate and El Nino section with background information. The tools section contains two applications that allow a user to examine the climate forecast for individual counties based on the ENSO phase and to evaluate yield potentials for certain crops. Applied outlooks for individual agricultural sectors are also provided on a quarterly basis. AgClimate is now operational under the Southeast Climate Consortium and several upgrades are under development and consideration. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. CR BOOTE KJ, 1998, SIMULATION CROP GROW, P113 BREUER N, 2000, FLORIDA CONSORTIUM T BREUER N, 2005, AE289 U FLORIDA GAIN BYRAM G, 1988, SE38 USDA FOR SERV R, V38, P1 CANE MA, 1994, NATURE, V370, P204 CANE MA, 2001, ASA SPECIAL PUBLICAT, V63 CARLSON RE, 1996, J PROD AGRIC, V9, P347 CASH DW, 2003, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V100, P8086 EFRON B, 1993, INTRO BOOTSTRAP FRAISSE CW, 2004, AE267 U FLOR COOP EX GARCIA AGY, 2005, CLIMATE RES, V29, P91 GARNETT ER, 1992, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V61, P113 GLANTZ MH, 2001, CURRENTS CHANGE IMPA HANDLER P, 1990, INT J CLIMATOL, V10, P819 HANLEY DE, 2003, J CLIMATE, V16, P1249 HANSEN JW, 1998, J CLIMATE, V11, P404 HANSEN JW, 2002, AGR SYST, V74, P309 HANSEN JW, 2004, 0401 EARTH I COL U I HARWOOD J, 1999, AER774 USDA EC RES S HILDEBRAND PE, 1999, FLORIDA CONSORTIUM T HOOGENBOOM G, 1992, T ASAE, V35, P2043 HOOGENBOOM G, 2004, DECISION SUPPORT SYS IBARRA R, 1999, FE198 IFAS PUBL JAGTAP SS, 2002, AGR SYST, V74, P415 JONES JW, 2000, AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON, V82, P169 JONES JW, 2003, EUR J AGRON, V18, P235 KILADIS GN, 1989, J CLIMATOL, V2, P1069 LAMB PJ, 1981, B AM METEOROL SOC, V62, P1000 LIU RY, 1992, EXPLORING LIMITS BOO, P225 MEARNS LO, 2003, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V60, P7 MEINKE H, 2005, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V70, P221 MESSINA C, 2000, FCUF200005 FLOR CONS OBRIEN KL, 2003, COPING CLIMATE VARIA, P197 RITCHIE JT, 1995, MODELLING PARAMETERI, P401 ROPELEWSKI CF, 1996, J CLIMATE, V9, P1043 SCHOLBERG JMS, 1997, SYSTEMS APPROACHES S, P133 SITTEL MC, 1994, 941 FLOR STAT U CTR SONKA ST, 1987, J CLIM APPL METEOROL, V26, P1080 STEIN PC, 1999, MAKING CLIMATE FOREC, P63 ZWERS FW, 1991, J CLIMATE, V3, P1452 NR 40 TC 1 J9 COMPUT ELECTRON AGRIC BP 13 EP 27 PY 2006 PD AUG VL 53 IS 1 GA 068MS UT ISI:000239379000002 ER PT J AU Mather, AS TI Assessing the world's forests SO GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS LA English DT Review C1 Univ Aberdeen, Dept Geog & Environm, Aberdeen AB24 3UF, Scotland. RP Mather, AS, Univ Aberdeen, Dept Geog & Environm, Aberdeen AB24 3UF, Scotland. AB Global environmental data have grown in abundance in recent decades: this paper reviews this growth in respect of forests. Assessments of world forests were undertaken at intervals during the 20th century, notably by FAO. Yet data problems persist: it is impossible, for example, to compile reliable time-series data for the global forest area. Assessment was initially geared to timber resources, and adaptation to include environmental concerns was slow. While methodologies have evolved, even the most recent global forest assessment has attracted criticism. It can be argued, however, that to focus only on the product of assessments (in terms of quantitative data) is to overlook their role as process. The process is a potentially significant instrument of global forest governance. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 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Potsdam Inst Climat Impacts Res, D-14412 Potsdam, Germany. RP Kundzewicz, ZW, Polish Acad Sci, Res Ctr Agr & Forest Environm, Bukowska 19, PL-60809 Poznan, Poland. AB The aim of the present contribution, opening a session on climate change and hydrology at the 2002 Nordic Hydrological Conference in Roros, Norway, is to discuss essential water-related findings of the Third Assessment Report (TAR) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), with particular reference to region-specific issues of the Nordic region. Discussion of impacts of climate variability and change embraces both already observed effects and projections for the future. After review of changes in hydrological processes, climate-related impacts on extreme hydrological events - floods and droughts are outlined. Finally, adaptation and vulnerability are dealt with, including presentation of key water-related regional concerns in various parts of the World. CR ARNELL NW, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 CHIEW FHS, 1993, INT J CLIMATOL, V13, P643 HOUGHTON JT, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 KUNDZEWICZ ZW, 2000, WCDMP45 WORLD CLIM P MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 PARRY ML, 2002, ASSESSMENT POTENTIAL WATSON RT, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 NR 7 TC 0 J9 NORD HYDROL BP 387 EP 398 PY 2003 VL 34 IS 5 GA 774DK UT ISI:000188964300001 ER PT J AU LOKER, WM TI THE HUMAN-ECOLOGY OF CATTLE RAISING IN THE PERUVIAN AMAZON - THE VIEW FROM THE FARM SO HUMAN ORGANIZATION LA English DT Article C1 ROCKEFELLER FDN,SOCIAL SCI RES AGR PROGRAM,NEW YORK,NY 10036. RP LOKER, WM, CALIF POLYTECH STATE UNIV SAN LUIS OBISPO,DEPT SOCIAL SCI,SAN LUIS OBISPO,CA 93407. AB This paper, based on two years of fieldwork in the Peruvian Amazon, analyzes cattle raising as one component of farmers' adaptive strategies in the social and ecological contexts of that region. The paper examines why cattle raising is a widespread production activity on small-to-medium farms in the region, and discusses its ecological impacts at the farm level. The ecological impacts include a tendency to retard biomass accumulation after moderate-to-heavy grazing, thereby prolonging the fallow period necessary for site recovery. The paper analyzes the implications of this ecological change on the viability of small-to-medium farms in this environment. CR *COLOM CTR INT AGR, 1989, 1988 ANN REP *CULT SURV, 1982, HUM COSTS DEF *PERU I NAC EST, 1987, PER COMP EST *PERU I VET TROP A, 1989, SIST PROD AM ACOSTA M, 1989, COLOMBIA AMAZONICA, V4, P85 BENNETT JW, 1976, ECOLOGICAL TRANSITIO BINSWANGER H, 1989, BRAZILIAN POLICIES T BISHOP J, 1982, AMAZONIA AGR LAND US, P423 BUSCHBACHER R, 1988, J ECOL, V76, P682 BUSCHBACHER RJ, 1984, THESIS U GEORGIA CONKLIN HC, 1961, CURR ANTHROPOL, V2, P27 DAVIS S, 1978, VICTIMS MIRACLE ESTRADA RD, 1988, SISTEMAS PRODUCCION FALESI IC, 1976, ECOSISTEMA PASTAGEM FEARNSIDE P, 1986, HUMAN CARRYING CAPAC FEARNSIDE PM, 1980, TROPICAL ECOLOGY, V21, P125 FEARNSIDE PM, 1987, BIOSCIENCE, V37, P209 GOODLAND RJA, 1975, AMAZON JUNGLE GREEN GOODLAND RJA, 1980, ENVIRON CONSERV, V7, P9 HECHT S, 1982, THESIS U CALIFORNIA HECHT SB, 1983, DILEMMA AMAZONIAN DE, P155 HECHT SB, 1984, FRONTIER EXPANSION A, P366 HECHT SB, 1988, INTERCIENCIA, V13, P233 JORDAN CF, 1985, NUTRIENT CYCLING TRO LAL R, 1986, ADV AGRON, V39, P173 LOKER W, 1988, ROLE CATTLE MIXED PR LOKER W, 1989, ANN M AM ANTHR ASS W MAHAR D, 1988, GOVT POLICIES DEFORE MYERS N, 1982, SINKING ARK NICHOLAIDES JJ, 1984, FRONTIER EXPANSION A, P337 PECK R, 1982, AMAZONIA AGR LAND US, P391 RAMIREZ S, 1990, IMPACTO SOCIOECONOMI SALATI E, 1984, SCIENCE, V225, P129 SPAIN JM, 1984, RECICLAJE NUTRIMENTO STEARMAN AM, 1983, DILEMMA AMAZONIAN DE, P51 TOLEDO J, 1982, AMAZONIA AGR LAND US, P281 TRENBATH BR, 1990, AGROECOLOGY RES ECOL, P337 UHL C, 1988, J ECOL, V76, P663 VOSTI SA, 1989, SOME ENV HLTH ASPECT NR 39 TC 14 J9 HUM ORGAN BP 14 EP 24 PY 1993 PD SPR VL 52 IS 1 GA KR474 UT ISI:A1993KR47400002 ER PT J AU Williams, JE TI The biodiversity crisis and adaptation to climate change: A case study from Australia's forests SO ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING AND ASSESSMENT LA English DT Article C1 Univ Melbourne, Sch Bot, Parkville, Vic 3052, Australia. RP Williams, JE, Univ Melbourne, Sch Bot, Parkville, Vic 3052, Australia. AB If current trends continue, human activities will drastically alter most of the planet's remaining natural ecosystems and their composite biota within a few decades. Compounding the impacts on biodiversity from deleterious management practices is climate variability and change. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) recently concluded that there is ample evidence to suggest climate change is likely to result in significant impacts on biological diversity. These impacts are likely to be exacerbated by the secondary effects of climate change such as changes in the occurrence of wildfire, insect outbreaks and similar disturbances. Current changes in climate are very different from those of the past due to their rate and magnitude, the direct effects of increased atmospheric CO2 concentrations and because highly modified landscapes and an array of threatening processes limit the ability of terrestrial ecosystems and species to respond to changed conditions. One of the primary human adaptation option for conserving biodiversity is considered to be changes in management. The complex and overarching nature of climate change issues emphasises the need for greatly enhanced cooperation between scientists, policy makers, industry and the community to better understand key interaction's and identify options for adaptation. A key challenge is to identify opportunities that facilitate sustainable development by making use of existing technologies and developing policies that enhance the resilience of climate-sensitive sectors. Measures to enhance the resilience of biodiversity must be considered in all of these activities if many ecosystem services essential to humanity are to be sustained. New institutional arrangements appear necessary at the regional and national level to ensure that policy initiatives and research directed at assessing and mitigating the vulnerability of biodiversity to climate change are complementary and undertaken strategically and cost-effectively. Policy implementation at the national level to meet responsibilities arising from the UNFCCC (e.g., the Kyoto Protocol) and the UN Convention on Biological Diversity require greater coordination and integration between economic sectors, since many primary drivers of biodiversity loss and vulnerability are influenced at this level. A case study from the Australian continent is used to illustrate several key issues and discuss a basis for reform, including recommendations for facilitating adaptation to climate variability and change. CR *COMM AUSTR, 1996, AUSTR STAT ENV 1996 *COMM AUSTR, 1996, NAT STRAT CONS AUSTR *COMM AUSTR, 1997, AUSTR 1 APPR REP MON *COMM AUSTR, 1997, FRAM REG SUBN LEV CR AUSTIN MP, 1997, EUCALYPTUS ECOLOGY I, P129 BASHER RE, 1998, REGIONAL IMPACTS CLI, P105 BRERETON R, 1995, BIOL CONSERV, V72, P339 DAILY GC, 1997, ISSUES ECOLOGY DALE VH, 1997, ECOL APPL, V7, P753 DOVERS SR, IN PRESS AMBIO DOVERS SR, 1996, BIODIVERS CONSERV, V5, P1143 FREIDENBURG LK, 1998, CONSERVATION BIOL CO, P66 GRICE AC, 1996, 11 AUSTR WEEDS C P W, P195 HALPIN PN, 1997, ECOL APPL, V7, P828 HUGHES L, 1996, GLOBAL ECOL BIOGEOGR, V5, P23 LANDSBERG JJ, 1996, GREENHOUSE COPING CL, P205 LUBCHENCO J, 1991, ECOLOGY, V72, P371 MOONEY HA, 1994, AMBIO, V23, P74 NORTON TW, 1996, FOREST ECOL MANAG, V85, P21 NORTON TW, 1998, COMMUNICATION PAUSAS JG, 1997, ECOL APPL, V7, P921 ROSETTA M, 1997, CONSERVATION OUTSIDE, P442 WATSON RT, 1998, REGIONAL IMPACTS CLI, V1, P1 WILLIAMS JE, 1994, CLIMATE CHANGE MAINT NR 24 TC 1 J9 ENVIRON MONIT ASSESS BP 65 EP 74 PY 2000 PD MAR VL 61 IS 1 GA 300UB UT ISI:000086270100005 ER PT J AU Leach, HM TI Human domestication reconsidered SO CURRENT ANTHROPOLOGY LA English DT Review C1 Univ Otago, Dunedin, New Zealand. RP Leach, HM, Univ Otago, POB 56, Dunedin, New Zealand. AB In scientific usage, "domestication" has come to mean the process by which humans transformed wild animals and plants into more useful products through control of their breeding. Certain physical and behavioural changes have been identified as criteria of domestication. They include morphological changes affecting the skeletons of early Middle Eastern domesticates ( e. g., reduction in size and skeletal robusticity, cranio-facial shortening, and declining tooth size). These changes also occur in some human populations starting in the Late Pleistocene. "Unconscious selection" pressures are increasingly invoked in explanations of both sets of data. The long-established paradigm of human control over domestication through artificial selection has meant that parallelism in these changes is seldom noted and few inclusive explanations have been attempted since the early 1900s. Recently, only symbolic and social domestication has been accepted for Homo sapiens. This article proposes a preliminary case for human biological domestication based on the effects of the built environment, decreased mobility, and changes in diet consistency associated with increasing sedentism. 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SO GEOFORUM LA English DT Article C1 Univ Sheffield, Sch Management, Sheffield S1 4DT, S Yorkshire, England. RP Cashman, A, Univ Sheffield, Sch Management, 9 Mappin St, Sheffield S1 4DT, S Yorkshire, England. AB In 1997 there was a change in government in the UK with the Labour Party coming into power for the first time since 1979. Among the commitments made was the intention to put sustainability at the heart of government and decision-making. There was also a commitment to introduce reforms of the utility sector. In part this was a response to public concern over the conduct and behaviour of the privatised utilities,,made more pertinent in the case of the water sector by the impact of several seasons of below average rainfall and high levels of leakage. In light of this the need for change took on a particular urgency. This paper examines some of the developments in water regulation under the 1997-2001 Labour administration. Through two sets of events; the 1997 Water Summit and the 1997-1999 Price Review the paper examines the discursive processes through which sustainability has been incorporated into water regulation. It discusses the changes in the practices of regulation and whether these could be characterised as the adoption of sustainability by the water sector or a strategy of adaptation to accommodate sustainability within an existing economic paradigm. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 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RP Carvalho, FP, Inst Tecnol & Nucl, Dept Prot Radiol & Seguranca Nucl, Estrada Nacl 10, P-2686953 Sacavem, Portugal. AB Decades ago, agrochemicals were introduced aiming at enhancing crop yields and at protecting crops from pests. Due to adaptation and resistance developed by pests to chemicals, every year higher amounts and new chemical compounds are used to protect crops, causing undesired side effects and raising the costs of food production. Eventually, new techniques, including genetically modified organisms (GMOs) resistant to pests, could halt the massive spread of agrochemicals in agriculture fields. Biological chemical-free agriculture is gaining also more and more support but it is still not able to respond to the need for producing massive amounts of food. The use of agrochemicals, including pesticides, remains a common practice especially in tropical regions and South countries. Cheap compounds, such as DDT, HCH and lindane, that are environmentally persistent, are today banned from agriculture use in developed countries, but remain popular in developing countries. As a consequence, persistent residues of these chemicals contaminate food and disperse in the environment. Coordinated efforts are needed to increase the production of food but with a view to enhanced food quality and safety as well as to controlling residues of persistent pesticides in the environment. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR 1991, PHOSPHORUS POTASSIUM, V172, P18 *EEA, 2005, 10 EEA *FAO, 2002, STAT FOOD INS WORLD *FAO, 2004, STAT FOOD INS WORLD *FAO, 2005, STAT FOOD INS WORLD *FAOSTAT, 2001, FOOD AGR ORG STAT DA *IAEA, 2003, IAEA TECDOC SER, V1337 *IAEA, 2004, IAEA TECOD SER, V1426 *UN MILL PROJ, 2005, INV DEV PRACT PLAN A *UN, 2001, WORLD POP PROSP 2000 *UN, 2005, WORLD POP PROSP 2004 *UNEP, 2005, GEO YB 2004 5 AHMED M, 2002, FOOD POLICY, V27, P125 ALEXANDRATOS N, 1999, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V96, P5908 BARCELO D, 1997, TECHNIQUES INSTRUMEN, V19, P542 BORLAUGH N, 1993, P 61 INT FERT ASS AN BRETVELD RW, 2006, REPROD BIOL ENDOCRIN, V4 CAMARGO JA, 2006, ENVIRON INT, V32, P831 CARVALHO FP, 1997, P INT FAO IAEA S ENV, P35 CARVALHO FP, 2002, J ENVIRON MONITOR, V4, P778 CARVALHO FP, 2005, P 1 INT C COAST CONS, P423 CHERNYAK SM, 1996, MAR POLLUT BULL, V32, P410 COHEN JE, 2005, SCI AM, P26 DUSZELN J, 1991, CHEM AGR ENV, P410 FALCON WP, 2005, FOOD POLICY, V27, P197 GILLAND B, 2002, FOOD POLICY, V27, P47 HARRIS CA, 2002, J ENVIRON MONITOR, V4, P28 KHUSH GS, 2002, FOOD NUTR B, V23, P354 KLASSEN W, 1995, P 8 INT C PEST CHEM, P1 MACFARLANE R, 2002, FOOD POLICY, V27, P65 MUNOZDETORO M, 2006, BREAST CANCER RES, V8 NHAN DD, 1999, SCI TOTAL ENVIRON, V237, P363 NICKSON TE, 1999, J ENVIRON MONITOR, V1, P101 PELLEY J, 2006, ENVIRON SCI TECHNOL, V40, P4533 PINGALI PL, 2002, FOOD POLICY, V27, P223 RIVAS A, 1997, TRAC-TREND ANAL CHEM, V16, P613 RUTHERFORD PM, 1995, ENVIRON TECHNOL, V16, P343 SACHS JD, 2005, SCI AM, P34 SCHRODER JJ, 2004, ENVIRON SCI POLICY, V7, P15 SHARP P, 1999, INT STUDIES REV, V1, P33 SRINIVASAN CS, 2006, FOOD POLICY, V31, P53 TAMM L, 2001, J ENVIRON MONITOR, V3, P92 TAYLOR M, 2003, PESTICIDE RESIDUES C THORPE A, 2006, FOOD POLICY, V31, P385 TRIPP R, 2002, FOOD POLICY, V27, P239 URI ND, 1997, SCI TOTAL ENVIRON, V204, P57 YOUNG JC, IN PRESS ECOTOXICOL NR 47 TC 0 J9 ENVIRON SCI POLICY BP 685 EP 692 PY 2006 PD NOV-DEC VL 9 IS 7-8 GA 114WS UT ISI:000242696900009 ER PT J AU Larson, DO Neff, H Graybill, DA Michaelsen, J Ambos, E TI Risk, climatic variability, and the study of southwestern prehistory: An evolutionary perspective SO AMERICAN ANTIQUITY LA English DT Review C1 UNIV MISSOURI,RES REACTOR CTR,COLUMBIA,MO 65211. UNIV ARIZONA,LAB TREE RING RES,TUCSON,AZ 85721. UNIV CALIF SANTA BARBARA,DEPT GEOG,SANTA BARBARA,CA 93106. CALIF STATE UNIV LONG BEACH,DEPT GEOL SCI,LONG BEACH,CA 90840. RP Larson, DO, CALIF STATE UNIV LONG BEACH,DEPT ANTHROPOL,LONG BEACH,CA 90840. AB Two recent developments in southwestern archaeology are brought together in this paper. First, theoreticians have begun to argue that the archaeological record should be viewed as the product of selection-driven evolution. Second, tree-ring research has produced a highly detailed history of climate for a large area of the northern Southwest. We view the record of climatic oscillations and extreme events as a record of the strength of selection favoring stabilization of specialized agricultural strategies in the arid northern Southwest. Published data from Black Mesa provide a cultural record of sufficient precision to permit comparison with the climate record, while new data from Vermillion Cliffs, southern Utah, document one local end-product of an evolutionary sequence shaped to an important degree by the long-term variability of climate. Anasazi occupation of many regions failed to persist through the ''Great Drought'' of the 1270s. From a local perspective, this extreme climatic event caused adaptations shaped by selection prior to the 1270s to fail; from a broader temporal-spatial perspective, however, the drought must be seen as part of the selective regime that shaped subsequent human adaptation to the northern Southwest. 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RP Pahl-Wostl, C, Univ Osnabruck, Inst Environm Syst Res, Barbarastr 12, D-49069 Osnabruck, Germany. AB Water management is facing major challenges due to increasing uncertainties caused by climate and global change and by fast changing socio-economic boundary conditions. More attention has to be devoted to understanding and managing the transition from current management regimes to more adaptive regimes that take into account environmental, technological, economic, institutional and cultural characteristics of river basins. This implies a paradigm shift in water management from a prediction and control to a management as learning approach. The change towards adaptive management could be defined as "learning to manage by managing to learn". Such change aims at increasing the adaptive capacity of river basins at different scales. The paper identifies major challenges for research and practice how to understand a transition in water management regimes. A conceptual framework is introduced how to characterize water management regimes and the dynamics of transition processes. The European project NeWater project is presented as one approach where new scientific methods and practical tools are developed for the participatory assessment and implementation of adaptive water management. 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RP Miller, KA, NATL CTR ATMOSPHER RES,ENVIRONM & SOC IMPACTS GRP,POB 3000,BOULDER,CO 80307. AB Global warming may profoundly affect temporal and spatial distributions of surface water availability. While climate modelers cannot yet predict regional hydrologic changes with confidence, it is appropriate to begin examining the likely effects of water allocation institutions on society's adaptability to prospective climate change. Such institutions include basic systems of water law, specific statutes, systems of administration and enforcement, and social norms regarding acceptable water-use practices. Both climate and the changing nature of demands on the resource have affected the development and evolution of water allocation institutions in the United States. Water laws and administrative arrangements, for example, have adapted to changing circumstances, but the process of adaptation can be costly and subject to conflict. Analysis of past and ongoing institutional change is used to identify factors that may have a bearing on the costliness of adaptation to the uncertain impacts of global warming on water availability and water demands. Several elements are identified that should be incorporated in the design of future water policies to reduce the potential for disputes and resource degradation that might otherwise result if climate change alters regional hydrology. 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RP Bailey, KD, Univ Calif Los Angeles, Dept Sociol, Los Angeles, CA 90095 USA. AB Social ecology studies the manner in which human societies adapt to their environment. This includes not only the impact of the society on the environment, but also the impact of the environment on the society. In fact, as societies adapt to their environment, they alter it, and this altered environment subsequently impacts back upon the society. Living Systems Theory (LST) discusses twenty critical subsystems which process either matter/energy or information in living systems, including social systems. This paper first presents a general model of social ecology. It then concentrates upon the ten subsystems of LST which process matter/energy, and analyzes how knowledge of these subsystem processes can be applied to our model of social ecology. These ten subsystems - the reproducer, boundary, ingestor, distributor, converter, producer, matter-energy storage, extruder, motor, and supporter - are all shown to occupy key roles in ecological adaptation, and the role of each is explicated. (C) 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. CR BAILEY KD, 1968, THESIS U TEXAS AUSTI BAILEY KD, 1990, SOCIAL ENTROPY THEOR BAILEY KD, 1990, SOCIOL INQ, V60, P386 BAILEY KD, 1993, ADV HUMAN ECOLOGY, V2, P133 BAILEY KD, 1994, SOCIOLOGY NEW SYSTEM BAILEY KD, 1995, SYST PRACTICE, V8, P85 BAILEY KD, 1996, P INT SOC SYSTEMS SC, P43 BURGESS EW, 1925, CITY, P47 DUNLAP RE, 1979, ANNU REV SOCIOL, V5, P243 DUNLAP RE, 1993, ANN INT I SOCIOLOGY, V3, P263 KEMPTON W, 1991, SOC NATUR RESOUR, V4, P331 LUHMANN N, 1989, ECOLOGICAL COMMUNICA MILLER GM, 1982, BEHAV SCI, V27, P303 MILLER JG, 1978, LIVING SYSTEMS MILLER JG, 1992, ANAL DYNAMIC PSYCHOL, V1, P9 MILLER JG, 1995, SYST PRACTICE, V8, P19 MILLER JL, 1990, BEHAV SCI, V35, P164 NR 17 TC 1 J9 SYST RES BEHAV SCI BP 421 EP 428 PY 1998 PD SEP-OCT VL 15 IS 5 GA 135WZ UT ISI:000076826800009 ER PT J AU Schachner, G TI Ritual control and transformation in middle-range societies: An example from the American Southwest SO JOURNAL OF ANTHROPOLOGICAL ARCHAEOLOGY LA English DT Review C1 Arizona State Univ, Dept Anthropol, Tempe, AZ 85287 USA. RP Schachner, G, Arizona State Univ, Dept Anthropol, Tempe, AZ 85287 USA. AB Ritual practices play an important role in the constitution and reproduction of social structures in middle-range societies. Oftentimes individuals and groups transform rituals: juring periods of social disruption in order to restructure the social landscape. This article develops a practice-based approach to ritual change that delineates contexts conducive to the transformation of extant ritual systems by individuals and groups looking to improve their social standing. This framework is then employed to discuss the shifts in ritual architecture that accompanied episodes of migration and environmental change during the Pueblo I period (A.D. 750-900) in die northern San Juan region of the American Southwest. These architectural shifts: were linked to changes in the control of communal ritual and the negotiation of social Fewer in relatively large, short-lived villages. (C) 2001 Academic Press. 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1996, AM ANTIQUITY, V61, P295 WOLF ER, 1990, AM ANTHROPOL, V92, P586 YOFFEE N, 1993, ARCHAEOLOGICAL THEOR, P60 NR 124 TC 3 J9 J ANTHROPOL ARCHAEOL BP 168 EP 194 PY 2001 PD JUN VL 20 IS 2 GA 445JZ UT ISI:000169455500002 ER PT J AU Haines, A Kovats, RS Campbell-Lendrum, D Corvalan, C TI Harben Lecture - Climate change and human health: impacts, vulnerability, and mitigation SO LANCET LA English DT Article C1 Univ London London Sch Hyg & Trop Med, London WC1E 7HT, England. WHO, CH-1211 Geneva, Switzerland. RP Haines, A, Univ London London Sch Hyg & Trop Med, Keppel St, London WC1E 7HT, England. AB It is now widely accepted that climate change is occurring as a result of the accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere arising from the combustion of fossil fuels. Climate change may affect health through a range of pathways-eg, as a result of increased frequency and intensity of heat waves, reduction in cold-related deaths, increased floods and droughts, changes in the distribution of vector-borne diseases, and effects on the risk of disasters and malnutrition. The overall balance of effects on health is likely to be negative and populations in low-income countries are likely to be particularly vulnerable to the adverse effects. The experience of the 2003 heat wave in Europe shows that high-income countries might also be adversely affected. Adaptation to climate change requires public-health strategies and improved surveillance. Mitigation of climate change by reducing the use of fossil fuels and increasing the use of a number of renewable energy technologies should improve health in the near term by reducing exposure to air pollution. 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Agriculture directly or indirectly supports 80 per cent of the population and much of Kenya's economy is based on agro-based industries. Climate change puts Kenya's development at risk through potential changes in precipitation in semi-arid areas, increased incidence of waterborne diseases in humid areas and increased rates of depletion of biomass and biodiversity The case study of Eastern Kenya examines different institutional mechanisms for seed distribution in the wake of successive droughts from 1991-2004, interspersed with floods, which resulted in a massive loss of crops, livestock and rural infrastructure. Seed fairs, organised by local communities with support from external NGOs, are found to be a more cost-effective mechanism for rapid seed distribution to the neediest sections of society than conventional, commercial channels. The latter wrongly assume that in periods of emergency local seed varieties are unavailable, when the key issue is of securing access. Seed fairs ensure seed varieties better adapted to local conditions are available during emergency periods. They also avoid the creation of dependency, help to build affected communities' social capital and contribute positively to the maintenance of biodiversity. CR *AIACC, 2002, UNEP START TWAS GEF *CRS ODI ICRISAT, 2002, SEED VOUCH FAIRS MAN *CRS, 2003, EM SEED DEL SEED VOU *GOK, 2002, 1 NAT COMM KEN C PAR *GOK, 2003, EC REC STRAT WEALTH *GOK, 2004, STRAT REV AGR 2004 2 *IRI, 2005, 0105 IRI *ITDGEA, 2000, COMM SEED SHOWS CAS *LOC DEV COMM GIK, 1999, ITDG96 *UNDP, 2004, HUM DEV REP 2004 AKLILU Y, 2002, DROUGHT LIVESTOCK LI BRAMEL P, 2004, CRS SEED VOUCHERS FA HAUGEN JM, 2001, TARGETED SEED AID SE MAKOKHA M, 2004, COMPARISON SEED VOUC MCGUIRE S, 2000, TARGETED SEED AID SE MUGAH JO, 2002, STRENGTHENING EMERGE OMANGA P, 2002, STRENGTHENING EMERGE OMANGA P, 2004, CRS SEED VOUCHERS FA OTADOH JA, 2002, STRENGTHENING EMERGE POTTIER J, 1996, IDS B, V27 REMINGTON T, 2004, CRS SEED VOUCHERS FA SPERLING L, 2001, TARGETED SEED AID SE SPERLING L, 2002, DISASTERS, V26, P329 WELTZIEN E, 2000, TARG SEED AID SEED S NR 24 TC 0 J9 IDS BULL-INST DEVELOP STUD BP 87 EP + PY 2005 PD OCT VL 36 IS 4 GA 989QD UT ISI:000233687900007 ER PT J AU Crabbe, P Robin, M TI Institutional adaptation of water resource infrastructures to climate change in Eastern Ontario SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 Univ Ottawa, Dept Econ, Ottawa, ON K1N 6N5, Canada. Univ Ottawa, Dept Earth Sci, Ottawa, ON K1N 6N5, Canada. RP Crabbe, P, Univ Ottawa, Dept Econ, POB 450,Stn A, Ottawa, ON K1N 6N5, Canada. AB Institutional barriers and bridges to local climate change impacts adaptation affecting small rural municipalities and Conservation Authorities (CAs are watershed agencies) in Eastern Ontario (Canada) are examined, and elements of a community-based adaptation strategy related to water infrastructures are proposed as a case-study in community adaptation to climate change. No general water scarcity is expected for the region even under unusually dry weather scenarios. Localized quantity and quality problems are likely to occur especially in groundwater recharge areas. Some existing institutions can be relied on by municipalities to build an effective adaptation strategy based on a watershed/region perspective, on their credibility, and on their expertise. Windows of opportunity or framing issues are offered at the provincial level, the most relevant one in a federal state, by municipal emergency plan requirements and pending watershed source water protection legislation. Voluntary and soon to be mandated climate change mitigation programs at the federal level are other ones. 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RP Pandey, DN, Forestry Training Inst, Jaipur 302015, Rajasthan, India. AB Land-use options that increase resilience and reduce vulnerability of contemporary societies are fundamental to livelihood improvement and adaptation to environmental change. Agroforestry as a traditional land-use adaptation may potentially support livelihood improvement through simultaneous production of food, fodder and firewood as well as mitigation of the impact of climate change. Drawing on the representative literature, here, I critically review the contribution of agroforestry systems in India to: (i) biodiversity conservation; (ii) yield of goods and services to society; (iii) augmentation of the carbon storage in agroecosystems; (iv) enhancing the fertility of the soils, and (v) providing social and economic well-being to people. Agroforestry systems in India contribute variously to ecological, social and economic functions, but they are only complementary - and not as an alternative - to natural ecosystems. To promote well-being of the society, management of multifunctional agroforestry needs to be strengthened by innovations in domestication of useful species and crafting market regimes for the products derived from agroforestry and ethnoforestry systems. Future research is required to eliminate many of the uncertainties that remain, and also carefully test the main functions attributed to agroforestry against alternative land-use options in order to know unequivocally as to what extent agroforestry served these purposes. 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RP Park, J, UNIV READING,DEPT AGR,POB 236,READING RG6 2AT,BERKS,ENGLAND. AB Sustainability is a term which is increasingly being used by researchers, politicians and informed members of the public. However, criteria for carrying out research within a sustainable systems framework are either ill-defined or non-existent. As an aid to this process the concept of sustainable pathways and viability space are introduced and interpreted as the need to maintain adaptive capacity, and therefore options within production systems that interact with the natural environment. A research approach is required which takes account of ecological, economic and social aspects of change and that is able to interpret and synthesise information, generated from a range of sources, in a manner which is policy relevant. This requires the construction of interfaces which link activities across a range of disciplines. A research project designed to assess the potential of alternative cropping systems is used to illustrate a series of interfaces. It is argued that demonstrating and developing the connections between the concept of sustainability and decision making processes provides an immediate challenge to those undertaking methodological research. 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Univ Bonn, Dept Geohydrol, Inst Geophys, D-53115 Bonn, Germany. RP Bormann, H, Univ Oldenburg, Dept Biol & Environm Sci, D-26111 Oldenburg, Germany. AB The main goal of the hydrological part within the IMPETUS project ('an integrated approach to the efficient management of scarce water resources in West Africa') is the prediction of environmental change effects on the water cycle and the water availability of regional scale West African catchments. As a prognosis of possible environmental change effects on hydrology has to be based on scenario analyses, an appropriate regional hydrological model is required. Therefore a preliminary goal is the adaptation and validation of a regional hydrological model in the target region. Due to the fact that a validation of spatially distributed simulation results is not feasible at the regional scale, two different strategies of modelling regional water fluxes are followed. First a multi-scale approach is proposed. Based on highly resolved pedological and hydrological measurements at the local scale (30 km(2)) a parameterisation scheme for the spatially distributed TOPLATS approach is developed. After validation at the local scale regional model applications based on parameterisation rules developed at the local scale are performed at the regional scale where only gauge data are available for comparison. Due to data and parameter uncertainty and the fact that the distributed model cannot be calibrated at the regional scale, the model results remain uncertain. For comparison a simplified, lumped model approach is applied directly at the regional scale. The model requires less input data and seems to be more robust with regard to input data and model parameter uncertainties which is mainly due to the fact that uncertainties and errors are smoothed out by the calibration. As it can be calibrated a noticeable better correlation between observed and simulated discharges is obtained because also data uncertainties are calibrated. While a good prediction of the discharge at the regional scale can more easily be obtained by applying the simplified model, environmental change scenario analyses require that land cover change is considered as detailed as possible. Therefore, distributed approaches are still indispensable although model calibration often fails. Model parameter and data uncertainties have to be taken into account and have to be quantified. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 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RP Gerbens-Leenes, PW, Univ Groningen, IVEM, Nijenborg 4, NL-9747 AG Groningen, Netherlands. AB Food security and increasing water scarcity have a dominant place on the food policy agenda. Food security requires sufficient water of adequate quality because water is a prerequisite for plant growth. Nowadays, agriculture accounts for 70% of the worldwide human fresh water use. The expected increase of global food demand requires a great deal of effort to supply sufficient fresh water. If a doubling of agricultural production goes along with a doubling of the use of water, current fresh water resources are probably not sufficient in the long run. The objective of this study is to develop a generally applicable method for the assessment of crop growth-related water flows or "transpirational water" requirements of agricultural crops. Traditionally, agricultural studies have made assessments of water requirements for specific situations to provide a yield. 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IRD, F-34394 Montpellier, France. Penn State Univ, Penn State Inst Environm, University Pk, PA 16802 USA. Marine Biol Lab, Ctr Ecosyst, Woods Hole, MA 02543 USA. USP, CENA, Lab Biogeoquim Ambiental, BR-13400970 Piracicaba, SP, Brazil. RP Cerri, CEP, USP, ESALQ, Dept Ciencia Solo, CP 09, BR-13418900 Piracicaba, SP, Brazil. AB The intensive land use invariably has several negative effects on the environment and crop production if conservative practices are not adopted. Reduction in soil organic matter (SOM) quantity means gas emission (mainly CO2, CH4, N2O) to the atmosphere and increased global warming. Soil sustainability is also affected, since remaining SOM quality changes. Alterations can be verified, for example, by soil desegregation and changes in structure. The consequences are erosion, reduction in nutrient availability for the plants and lower water retention capacity. 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AGR 2 F, P286 SILVA AL, 2006, SCI AGR, V63, P105 SILVA GMA, 1997, SECAPI, V1, P55 SIMOES MD, 2005, SCI AGR, V62, P199 SIQUEIRA OJF, 1994, REV BRASILEIRA AGROM, V2, P115 SIQUEIRA OJF, 2001, MUDANCAS CLIMATICAS, V1, P33 SISTI CPJ, 2004, SOIL TILL RES, V76, P39 SIVAKUMAR MVK, 2005, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V70, P31 SIX J, 1999, SOIL SCI SOC AM J, V63, P1350 SIX J, 2002, AGRONOMIE, V22, P755 SMITH P, 1998, GLOB CHANGE BIOL, V4, P679 SOARES JLN, 2005, SCI AGR, V62, P165 SPAGNOLLO E, 1999, ENC BRAS SUBST HUM 3, P229 TESTA VM, 1992, REV BRASILEIRA CIENC, V16, P107 THORBURN PJ, 2001, FIELD CROP RES, V70, P223 TRUMBORE SE, 1995, GLOBAL BIOGEOCHEM CY, V9, P515 VASCONCELLOS CA, 1998, PESQUI AGROPECU BRAS, V33, P1897 VENZKE SP, 2002, FERTIBIO 2002 ZOTARELLI L, 2003, C BRAS CIENC SOL RIB NR 116 TC 0 J9 SCI AGRIC BP 83 EP 99 PY 2007 PD JAN-FEB VL 64 IS 1 GA 143PX UT ISI:000244736100013 ER PT J AU McAllister, RRJ Abel, N Stokes, CJ Gordon, IJ TI Australian pastoralists in time and space: The evolution of a complex adaptive system SO ECOLOGY AND SOCIETY LA English DT Article AB Newcomers and exotic livestock have displaced indigenous hunter-gatherers from Australia's drylands over the past 200 yr. This paper seeks to learn from and explain the adaptive process involving the initially nave newcomers, their stock, and Australia's ancient landscapes. We review pastoral adaptation at the national, regional, and enterprise scales. These scales are linked, and so we use "panarchy" theory with its concept of "adaptive cycles" as an analytical framework. Past pastoral adaptation can be summarized by changes in key linkages: pastoralists (1) are now connected to more individuals than when they first moved into the rangelands, but are less reliant on local hubs for these connections; (2) have weaker links to the environment as environmental feedbacks have been reduced; (3) have stronger links to alternate land uses, but weaker links to governance; and (4) have stronger links to the global economy. Further change is inevitable. Pastoralism is likely to remain as the core activity in Australian rangelands, but the dynamic linkages that shape the system will, in future, connect pastoralists more strongly to post-production economies, information and more distant social networks, and to a more diverse group of land users. 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SO FISH AND FISHERIES LA English DT Review C1 Univ Alaska, Dept Biol & Wildlife, Fairbanks, AK 99775 USA. Univ Alaska, Dept Resources Management, Fairbanks, AK 99775 USA. RP Robards, MD, Univ Alaska, Dept Biol & Wildlife, POB 756100, Fairbanks, AK 99775 USA. AB Sustaining natural resources is regarded as an important component of ecological resilience and commonly assumed to be of similar importance to social and economic vitality for resource-dependent communities. However, communities may be prevented from benefiting from healthy local resources due to constrained economic or political opportunities. In the case of Alaskan wild salmon, the fisheries are in crisis due to declining economic revenues driven by the proliferation of reliable and increasingly high-quality products from fish farms around the world. This stands in contrast with many of the world's wild-capture fisheries where diminished biological abundance has led to fishery collapse. Furthermore, increasing efficiency of salmon farm production, globalization, and dynamic consumer preferences, suggests that the wild salmon industry will continue to be challenged by the adaptability, price and quality of farmed salmon. Conventional responses to reduced revenues by the wild-capture industry have been to increase economic efficiency through implementing a range of entry entitlement and quota allocation schemes. However, while these mechanisms may improve economic efficiency at a broad scale, they may not benefit local community interests, and in Alaska have precipitated declines in local ownership of the fishery. To be viable, economic efficiency remains a relevant consideration, but in a directionally changing environment (biological, social or economic), communities unable to procure livelihoods from their local resources (through access or value) are likely to seek alternative economic opportunities. The adopted strategies, although logical for communities seeking viability through transformation in a changing world, may not be conducive to resilience of a 'fishing community' or the sustainability of their wild fish resources. We use a theoretically grounded systems approach and data from Alaska's Bristol Bay salmon fishery to demonstrate feedbacks between global preferences towards salmon and the trade-offs inherent when managing for the resilience of wild salmon populations and human communities at different scales. 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Kenya Med Res Inst Wellcome Trust Collaborat Prog, Nairobi, Kenya. Univ London London Sch Hyg & Trop Med, Dept Infect & Trop Dis, London WC1E 7HT, England. Univ Oxford, Dept Zool, Oxford Tick Res Grp, Oxford OX1 3PS, England. Australian Natl Univ, Ctr Resource & Environm Studies, Canberra, ACT 0200, Australia. USA, Med Res Unit Kenya, Nairobi, Kenya. Decis Syst Technol Inc, Rockville, MD 20850 USA. Univ Oxford, John Radcliffe Hosp, Ctr Trop Med, Oxford OX3 9DU, England. RP Hay, SI, Univ Oxford, Dept Zool, TALA Res Grp, S Parks Rd, Oxford OX1 3PS, England. AB The public health and economic consequences of Plasmodium falciparum malaria are once again regarded as priorities for global development. There has been much speculation on whether anthropogenic climate change is exacerbating the malaria problem, especially in areas of high altitude where P. falciparum transmission is limited by low temperature(1-4). The International Panel on Climate Change has concluded that there is likely to be a net extension in the distribution of malaria and an increase in incidence within this range(5). We investigated long-term meteorological trends in four high-altitude sites in East Africa, where increases in malaria have been reported in the past two decades. Here we show that temperature, rainfall, vapour pressure and the number of months suitable for P. falciparum transmission have not changed significantly during the past century or during the period of reported malaria resurgence. A high degree of temporal and spatial variation in the climate of East Africa suggests further that claimed associations between local malaria resurgences and regional changes in climate are overly simplistic. CR *NAT RES COUNC, 2001, WEATH CLIM EC INF DI BODKER R, 2000, GLOBAL CHANGE HUMAN, V1, P134 BOX GEP, 1970, J AM STAT ASSOC, V65, P1509 DICKEY DA, 1979, J AM STAT ASSOC, V74, P427 DICKEY DA, 1981, ECONOMETRICA, V49, P1057 DIXON S, 1950, E AFR MED J, V27, P10 EPSTEIN PR, 1998, B AM METEOROL SOC, V79, P409 GARNHAM PCC, 1948, J NATL MALAR SOC, V7, P275 GRANGER CWJ, 1974, J ECONOMETRICS, V2, P111 HAY SI, 2000, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V97, P9335 HOUGHTON JT, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 KILIAN AHD, 1999, T ROY SOC TROP MED H, V93, P22 KINGUYU SM, 2000, J CLIMATE, V13, P2876 LINDBLADE KA, 1999, T ROY SOC TROP MED H, V93, P480 LOEVINSOHN ME, 1994, LANCET, V343, P714 MARIMBU J, 1993, B SOC PATHOL EXOT, V86, P399 MARTENS P, 1999, AM SCI, V87, P534 MATOLA YG, 1987, J TROP MED HYG, V90, P127 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 MCMICHAEL AJ, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE HUMAN MOUCHET J, 1997, B SOC PATHOL EXOT, V90, P162 MOUCHET J, 1998, J AM MOSQUITO CONTR, V14, P121 NEW M, 1999, J CLIMATE, V12, P829 NEW M, 2000, J CLIMATE, V13, P2217 REITER P, 2001, ENVIRON HEALTH PE S1, V109, P141 SHANKS GD, 2000, T ROY SOC TROP MED H, V94, P253 STERN DI, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V47, P411 NR 27 TC 49 J9 NATURE BP 905 EP 909 PY 2002 PD FEB 21 VL 415 IS 6874 GA 523EL UT ISI:000173941000044 ER PT J AU Hallegatte, S TI The long time scales of the climate-economy feedback and the climatic cost of growth SO ENVIRONMENTAL MODELING & ASSESSMENT LA English DT Article C1 Ctr Int Rech Environm & Dev, F-94736 Nogent Sur Marne, France. Meteo France, Ctr Natl Rech Meteorol, F-94736 Nogent Sur Marne, France. RP Hallegatte, S, Ctr Int Rech Environm & Dev, 45bis Av de la Belle Gabrielle, F-94736 Nogent Sur Marne, France. AB This paper is based on the perception that the inertia of climate and socio-economic systems are key parameters in the climate change issue. In a first part, it develops and implements a new approach based on a simple integrated model with a particular focus on an innovative transient impact and adaptation modeling. In a second part, a climate-economy feedback is defined and characterized. The following results were found. 1) It has a long characteristic time, which lies between 50 and 100 years depending on the hypotheses; this time scale is long when compared to the system's other time scales, and the feedback cannot act as a natural damping process of climate change. 2) Mitigation has to be anticipated since the feedback of an emission reduction on the economy can be significant only after a 20-year delay and is really efficient only after at least 50 years. 3) Even discounted, production changes due to an action on emissions are significant over more than one century. 4) The methodology of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which neglects the feedback from impacts to emissions, is acceptable up to 2100, whatever is the level of impacts. This analysis allows also to define a climatic cost of growth as the additional climate change damages due to the additional emissions linked to economic growth. CR AMBROSI P, 2003, ENVIRON MODEL ASSESS, V8, P133 BODE H, 1945, NETWORK ANAL FEEDBAC CHERKAOUI M, 1996, J HEAT TRANS-T ASME, V118, P401 CLINE W, 1992, EC GLOBAL WARMING COX PM, 2000, NATURE, V408, P184 FANKHAUSER S, 1999, ECOL ECON, V30, P67 FANKHAUSER S, 2005, RESOUR ENERGY ECON, V27, P1 FRIEDLINGSTEIN P, 2003, TELLUS B, V55, P692 GALLUP J, 1999, 1 CID HARV GREEN JSA, 1967, Q J ROY METEOR SOC, V93, P371 HALLEGATTE S, 2005, UNPUB J ATMOS SCI HAURIE A, 2002, TURNPIKE MULTIDISCOU, P4 HOUGHTON JT, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 LIU JWH, 1992, SIAM REV, V34, P82 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 MENDELSOHN R, 1999, IMPACT CLIMATE CHANG NAKICENOVIC N, 2000, SPECIAL REPORT EMISS NORDHAUS W, 1994, MANAGING GLOBAL COMM NORDHAUS WD, 1991, ECON J, V101, P920 SOLOW RM, 1956, Q J ECON, V70, P65 TOL RSJ, 1996, ECOL ECON, V19, P67 TOL RSJ, 2002, ENVIRON RESOUR ECON, V21, P135 TOL RSJ, 2002, ENVIRON RESOUR ECON, V21, P47 NR 23 TC 0 J9 ENVIRON MODEL ASSESS BP 277 EP 289 PY 2005 PD DEC VL 10 IS 4 GA 988XH UT ISI:000233634400001 ER PT J AU Parry, ML TI Scenarios for climate impact and adaptation assessment SO GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS LA English DT Editorial Material C1 Univ E Anglia, Sch Environm Sci, Jackson Environm Inst, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. RP Parry, ML, Univ E Anglia, Sch Environm Sci, Jackson Environm Inst, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. CR CARTER TR, 2000, CLIMATE CHANGE 21 CE HOUGHTON JT, 1996, SCI CLIMATE CHANGE HOUGHTON JT, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 METZ B, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 NAKICENOVIC N, 2000, SPECIAL REPORT EMISS SWART RJ, 2002, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V12, P155 WATSON RT, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 NR 8 TC 3 J9 GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANGE BP 149 EP 153 PY 2002 PD OCT VL 12 IS 3 GA 612KX UT ISI:000179075400001 ER PT J AU Folke, C Hahn, T Olsson, P Norberg, J TI Adaptive governance of social-ecological systems SO ANNUAL REVIEW OF ENVIRONMENT AND RESOURCES LA English DT Review C1 Stockholm Univ, Ctr Transdisciplinary Environm Res, SE-10691 Stockholm, Sweden. Stockholm Univ, Dept Syst Ecol, SE-10691 Stockholm, Sweden. RP Folke, C, Stockholm Univ, Ctr Transdisciplinary Environm Res, SE-10691 Stockholm, Sweden. AB We explore the social dimension that enables adaptive ecosystem-based management. The review concentrates on experiences of adaptive governance of social-ecological systems during periods of abrupt change (crisis) and investigates social sources of renewal and reorganization. Such governance connects individuals, organizations, agencies, and institutions at multiple organizational levels. Key persons provide leadership, trust, vision, meaning, and they help transform management organizations toward a learning environment. Adaptive governance systems often self-organize as social networks with teams and actor groups that draw on various knowledge systems and experiences for the development of a common understanding and policies. The emergence of "bridging organizations" seem to lower the costs of collaboration and conflict resolution, and enabling legislation and governmental policies can support self-organization while framing creativity for adaptive comanagement efforts. A resilient social-ecological system may make use of crisis as an opportunity to transform into a more desired state. 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BP 441 EP 473 PY 2005 VL 30 GA 995OE UT ISI:000234111200014 ER PT J AU M'barek, R Behle, C Mulindabigwi, V Schopp, M Singer, U TI Sustainable resource management in Benin embedded in the process of decentralisation SO PHYSICS AND CHEMISTRY OF THE EARTH LA English DT Article C1 Univ Bonn, Inst Agr Policy Market Res & Econ Sociol, D-53115 Bonn, Germany. Univ Bonn, Dept Geog, D-53115 Bonn, Germany. Univ Bonn, Dept Hort, D-53121 Bonn, Germany. RP M'barek, R, Univ Bonn, Inst Agr Policy Market Res & Econ Sociol, Nussallee 21, D-53115 Bonn, Germany. AB This article gives an overview on an integrated socio-economic approach to meet the complexity of resource use in a representative catchment area in Benin, West Africa. Main objective of the studies is to analyse interdependencies between resource availability and socio-economic, respectively, demographic development, incorporated in the process of institutional reorganisation. The ongoing decentralisation in Benin encounters obstacles, as responsibility is shifted from a national to a local level without being embedded in a framework of constitutional security. In this article we focus on crucial problems and highlight significant though preliminary results with reference to the decentralisation process, regarding basically the resources water and land. Results of field surveys are presented together with a modelling tool to integrate these data in an agricultural sector model. Water will become scarcer due to growing population and changing water consumption patterns. Migration flows aggravate the competition over land and water. The detailed knowledge on these shortly outlined processes allows to identify sustainable strategies in order to mitigate the impending crises. Resource management approaches like CBNRM ("Community Based Natural Resource Management") form a conceptual basis, which must be accompanied by a long-term planning of state institutions to steer resource use and by the introduction of locally adapted land use systems (like Cashew-plantations in the catchment). The decision support system BenIMPACT supports the quantitative assessment of different development paths. The dominant basic needs strategies of all national and international development agencies operating in Benin have to recognise the process of the shortening of the basic natural resources water and land to ensure their sustainability in the future. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *CTR EC HYDR, US WAT POV IND MON P *FAO, 2002, AQ MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 *WORLD BANK, 2003, WORLD BANK COUNTR DA AKPAKI JA, 2002, ACKERBAUERN MOBILE T CHABAL P, 1999, AFRICA WORKS DISORDE FALKENMARK M, 1992, POPULATION WATER RES FALKENMARK M, 1999, WATER REFLECTION LAN FLORIN R, 2003, COMMUNICATION LEACH M, 1999, WORLD DEV, V27, P225 MWABU G, 2001, RURAL DEV EC GROWTH PEPELS W, 1995, KAUFERVERHALTEN MARK PRETTY J, 2001, CARBON EMISSIONS SEQ RUTHBERG H, 1976, Z AUSLANDISCHE LANDW, V15, P42 THAMM HP, 2002, IMPE TUS S COT 20 21 VANDENAKKER E, 2000, MAKROOKONOMISCHE BEW WALLACE JS, 2000, AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON, V82, P105 NR 17 TC 0 J9 PHYS CHEM EARTH BP 365 EP 371 PY 2005 VL 30 IS 6-7 GA 969QM UT ISI:000232249600006 ER PT J AU Orquera, LA TI Mid-Holocene littoral adaptation at the southern end of South America SO QUATERNARY INTERNATIONAL LA English DT Article RP Orquera, LA, Rivadavia 1379-11F, RA-1033 Buenos Aires, DF, Argentina. AB One of the most noticeable, intense and long-lasting human adaptive explorations that occurred in the mid-Holocene was the specialisation in the exploitation of coastal resources that happened in the South of Chile and Argentina. There, the continental border is abrupt and jagged, rainy and covered by woods. In the mid-Holocene, and apparently quite suddenly, an intensification of the human use of littoral resources was developed, which differed considerably from what happened in the rest of Patagonia and Tierra del Fuego. This paper examines in particular the role of the peculiar environment of the area: its importance as a selective factor is evident, but it is not possible to identify within it the factor which determined the starting of the adaptation process. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd and INQUA. All rights reserved. CR ALVAREZ M, 2001, 14 C NAC ARQ ARG BAILEY GN, 1975, J ARCHAEOL SCI, V2, P45 BENN DI, 2000, QUATERNARY RES, V54, P13 BETTINGER R, 2001, HOLOCENE HUNTER GATH, P137 BETTINGER RL, 1982, AM ANTIQUITY, V47, P485 BIRD JB, 1938, GEOGR REV, V28, P250 BIRDSELL JB, 1968, MAN HUNTER, P229 BORRERO L, 2001, HIST ARGENTINA PREHI, P815 BORRERO LA, 1977, AN INST PATAGONIA, V8, P81 BORRERO LA, 1989, ANS I PAT SER CS HS, V19, P133 BRYSON RA, 1985, QUATERNARY RES, V23, P275 BUTZER K, 1982, ARCHAEOLOGY HUMAN EC CLAPPERTON CM, 1992, ANS I PAT CH, V21, P113 DAVIS MB, 1985, QUATERNARY RES, V23, P327 DUMOND DE, 1975, SCIENCE, V187, P713 ERLANDSON J, 2001, J ARCHAEOL RES, V9, P285 GOULD SJ, 1977, PALEOBIOLOGY, V3, P115 HARPENDING H, 1977, WORLD ARCHAEOL, V8, P275 HASSAN F, 1981, DEMOGRAPHIS ARCHAEOL HEUSSER CJ, 1966, P AM PHILOS SOC, V110, P269 HEUSSER CJ, 1980, SCIENCE, V210, P1345 HEUSSER CJ, 1984, LATE CAINOZOIC PALAE, P59 HEUSSER CJ, 1987, NATURE, V328, P609 HEUSSER CJ, 1989, PALAEOGEOGR PALAEOCL, V76, P31 HEUSSER CJ, 1989, QUATERNARY RES, V31, P396 HEUSSER CJ, 1994, REV INST GEOL SAO PA, V15, P7 HEUSSER CJ, 1999, GEOGR ANN A A, V81, P231 HEUSSER CJ, 2000, J QUATERNARY SCI, V15, P101 HOGANSON JW, 1992, QUATERNARY RES, V37, P101 JONES TL, 1991, AM ANTIQUITY, V56, P419 LAMINGEMPERAIRE A, 1968, J SOC AMERICANISTES, V57, P77 LAMY F, 1999, QUATERNARY RES, V51, P83 LEGOUPIL D, 1997, BAHIA COLORADA ENGLE MARKGRAF V, 1991, BOREAS, V20, P63 MEEHAN B, 1977, SUNDA SAHUL, P493 MERCER JH, 1968, AM J SCI, V266, P91 MERCER JH, 1970, AM J SCI, V269, P1 MERCER JH, 1976, QUATERNARY RES, V6, P125 MIOTTI L, 2001, UNPUB 14 C NAC ARQ A OBELIC B, 1998, QUATERNARY S AM ANTA, V11, P47 ORQUERA L, 1977, LANCHA PACKEWAIA ARQ ORQUERA L, 1987, PRIMERAS JORNADAS AR, P211 ORQUERA L, 1995, ENCUENTRO CONCHALES, V1, P25 ORQUERA L, 1996, RUNA, V22, P187 ORQUERA L, 1999, NUEVA HIST NACION AR, V1, P233 ORQUERA L, 1999, PUBLICACIONES SOCIDA ORQUERA L, 2000, RELACIONES SOC ARGEN, V22, P307 PARKINGTON JE, 2001, HUMANITY AFRICAN NAI, P327 PENDALL E, 2001, QUATERNARY RES, V55, P168 PEREZPEREZ A, 1996, NOTES POPULATION SIG, V1838, P107 PIANA E, 1984, ENSAYOS ANTROPOLOGIA, P9 RABASSA J, 1992, SVERIGES GEOLOGISKA, V81, P249 RABASSA JO, 1986, QUATERNARY S AM ANTA, V4, P291 RIVAS H, 1999, ANALES I PATAGONIA, V27, P221 SAHLINS M, 1972, STONE AGE EC SMITH EA, 1983, CURR ANTHROPOL, V24, P625 SPETH JD, 1990, J ANTHROPOL ARCHAEOL, V9, P148 TUHKANEN S, 1992, ACTA BOT FENN, V145, P1 WINTERHALDER B, 1981, HUNTER GATHERER FORA, P15 YESNER DR, 1980, CURR ANTHROPOL, V21, P727 NR 60 TC 0 J9 QUATERN INT BP 107 EP 115 PY 2005 VL 132 GA 900CI UT ISI:000227192600011 ER PT J AU Jones, GV White, MA Cooper, OR Storchmann, K TI Climate change and global wine quality SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 So Oregon Univ, Dept Geog, Ashland, OR 97520 USA. Utah State Univ, Dept Aquat Watershed & Earth Resources, Logan, UT 84322 USA. Univ Colorado, CIRES, NOAA, Aeron Lab, Boulder, CO 80305 USA. Yale Univ, Dept Econ, New Haven, CT 06520 USA. RP Jones, GV, So Oregon Univ, Dept Geog, 1250 Siskiyou Blvd, Ashland, OR 97520 USA. AB From 1950 to 1999 the majority of the world's highest quality wine-producing regions experienced growing season warming trends. Vintage quality ratings during this same time period increased significantly while year-to-year variation declined. While improved winemaking knowledge and husbandry practices contributed to the better vintages it was shown that climate had, and will likely always have, a significant role in quality variations. This study revealed that the impacts of climate change are not likely to be uniform across all varieties and regions. Currently, many European regions appear to be at or near their optimum growing season temperatures, while the relationships are less defined in the New World viticulture regions. For future climates, model output for global wine producing regions predicts an average warming of 2 degrees C in the next 50 yr. For regions producing high quality grapes at the margins of their climatic limits, these results suggest that future climate change will exceed a climatic threshold such that the ripening of balanced fruit required for existing varieties and wine styles will become progressively more difficult. In other regions, historical and predicted climate changes could push some regions into more optimal climatic regimes for the production of current varietals. In addition, the warmer conditions could lead to more poleward locations potentially becoming more conducive to grape growing and wine production. CR AMERINE MA, 1944, HILGARDIA, V15, P493 ASHENFELTER O, 1995, CHANCE, V8, P7 ASHENFELTER O, 1995, ECON REC, V7, P40 ASHENFELTER O, 2000, VDQS ANN M AJ CORS F BINDI M, 1996, CLIMATE RES, V7, P213 BINDI M, 2000, CLIMATE CHANGE CLIMA, P117 BINDI M, 2001, EUR J AGRON, V14, P145 BROADBENT M, 1980, GREAT VINTAGE WINE B BUTTERFIELD RE, 2000, CLIMATE CHANGE CLIMA CARTER TR, 1991, INT J CLIMATOL, V11, P251 CHAHINE MT, 1992, NATURE, V359, P373 DEBLIJ HJ, 1983, J GEOGR, V82, P112 EASTERLING DR, 2000, B AM METEOROL SOC, V81, P417 FISCHER G, 2002, CLIMATE CHANGE AGR V FOREST CE, 2002, SCIENCE, V295, P113 GLADSTONES J, 1992, VITICULTURE ENV GORDON C, 2000, CLIM DYNAM, V16, P147 HOUGHTON TJ, 2001, CONTRIBUTIONS WORKIN JOHNSON H, 1985, WORLD ATLAS WINE JONES GV, 1997, SYNOPIC CLIMATOLOGIC JONES GV, 2000, AM J ENOL VITICULT, V51, P249 JONES GV, 2001, AGR ECON, V26, P115 JONES GV, 2003, OREGON VITICULTURE, P44 JONES GV, 2004, P VIN DAT QUANT SOC JONES GV, 2005, IN PRESS P 7 INT S G JONES GV, 2005, IN PRESS TERROIR SER KARL TR, 1993, B AM METEOROL SOC, V74, P1007 KENNY GJ, 1992, J WINE RES, V3, P163 LADURIE EL, 1971, TIMES FEAST TIMES FA LEGATES DR, 1990, THEOR APPL CLIMATOL, V41, P11 LOUGH JM, 1983, J CLIM APPL METEOROL, V22, P1673 MAZUR M, 2002, WINE ENTHUSIASTS 200 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 MCINNES KL, 2003, AUST NZ GRAPEGRO FEB, P40 MENZEL A, 1999, NATURE, V397, P659 MOISSELIN JM, 2002, METEOROLOGIE, V38, P45 MOONEN AC, 2002, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V111, P13 MULLINS MG, 1992, BIOL GRAPEVINE NEMANI RR, 2001, CLIMATE RES, V19, P25 PALUTIKOF JP, 2002, J CLIMATE, V15, P3529 PARKER RM, 1985, BORDEAUX DEFINITIVE PENNINGROWSELL EC, 1989, WINES BRODEAUX PFISTER C, 1988, LONG SHORT TERM VARI, P57 POPE VD, 2000, CLIM DYNAM, V16, P123 RAVAL A, 1989, NATURE, V342, P758 RENNER B, 1989, WINE SPIRIT DEC, P55 SCHULTZ HR, 2000, AUST J GRAPE WINE R, V6, P2 STEVENSON T, 2001, NEW SOTHEBYS WINE EN TATE AB, 2001, J WINE RES, V12, P95 UNWIN T, 1991, WINE VINE HIST GEOGR WILLMOTT C, 2002, MONTHLY ANN TIME SER WINKLER JA, 2002, J GREAT LAKES RES, V28, P608 NR 52 TC 3 J9 CLIMATIC CHANGE BP 319 EP 343 PY 2005 PD DEC VL 73 IS 3 GA 000SF UT ISI:000234482000005 ER PT J AU Tol, RSJ TI Adaptation and mitigation: trade-offs in substance and methods SO ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE & POLICY LA English DT Article C1 Univ Hamburg, Res Unit Sustainabil & Global Change, Hamburg, Germany. Ctr Marine & Atmospher Res, Hamburg, Germany. Vrije Univ Amsterdam, Inst Environm Studies, Amsterdam, Netherlands. Carnegie Mellon Univ, Pittsburgh, PA 15213 USA. RP Tol, RSJ, Univ Hamburg, Res Unit Sustainabil & Global Change, Hamburg, Germany. AB Adaptation to climate change and mitigation of climate change are policy substitutes, as both reduce the impacts of climate change. Adaptation and mitigation should therefore be analysed together, as they indeed are, albeit in a rudimentary way, in cost-benefit analyses of emission abatement. However, adaptation and mitigation are done by different people operating at different spatial and temporal scales. This hampers analysis of the trade-offs between adaptation and mitigation. An exception is facilitative adaptation (enhancing adaptive capacity), which, like mitigation, requires long-term policies at macro level. Facilitative adaptation and mitigation not only both reduce impacts, but they also compete for resources. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR ARNELL NW, 2004, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V14, P31 AZAR C, 1996, ECOL ECON, V19, P169 BABIKER M, 2000, ENERG POLICY, V28, P525 BERRITTELLA M, 2004, FNU49 HAMB U CTR MAR BOSELLO F, 2004, FNU38 HAMB U CTR MAR BOSELLO F, 2004, FNU57 HAMB U CTR MAR BUCHNER B, 2002, CLIM POLICY, V2, P273 BURTON I, 1978, ENV HAZARD, V1, P1 BURTON I, 1994, DELTA, V5, P14 BURTON I, 1997, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V36, P185 COHEN SJ, 2000, WATER INT, V25, P253 DARWIN RF, 2001, ENVIRON RESOUR ECON, V19, P113 DOWNING TE, 1997, MITIGATION ADAPTATIO, V2, P19 FANKHAUSER S, 1994, ENVIRON PLANN A, V27, P299 FANKHAUSER S, 1999, ECOL ECON, V30, P67 HAMILONT JM, 2004, FNU36 HAMB U CTR MAR HASSELMANN K, 1997, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V37, P345 HOOZEMANS FMJ, 1993, GLOBAL VULNERABILITY HOPE CW, 1993, ENERG POLICY, V15, P328 IGLESIAS A, 1996, WATER AIR SOIL POLL, V92, P13 KELLY PM, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V47, P325 KLEIN RJT, 2001, J COASTAL RES, V17, P531 LAMB HH, 1982, CLIMATE HIST MODERN MANNE A, 1995, ENERG POLICY, V23, P17 MANNE AS, 1998, ENVIRON MODEL ASSESS, V2, P251 MENDELSOHN R, 1994, AM ECON REV, V84, P753 MILLER KA, 1997, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V35, P157 NICHOLLS RJ, 2004, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V14, P69 NORDHAUS WD, 1991, ECON J, V101, P920 NORDHAUS WD, 1993, RESOUR ENERGY ECON, V15, P27 PARRY ML, 1998, NATURE, V395, P741 PEARCE DW, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, P179 PECK SC, 1992, ENERGY J, V13, P55 ROSENZWEIG C, 1994, NATURE, V367, P133 SCHELLING TC, 1992, AM ECON REV, V82, P1 SCHELLING TC, 1995, ENERG POLICY, V23, P395 SMIT B, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, P877 SMITH JB, 1996, CLIMATE RES, V6, P193 TOL RSJ, IN PRESS ENV DEV EC TOL RSJ, IN PRESS MITIGATION TOL RSJ, 1998, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V8, P109 TOL RSJ, 1998, THEORY IMPLEMENTATIO, P277 TOL RSJ, 1999, ENERGY J SPECIAL ISS, P130 TOL RSJ, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V46, P357 TOL RSJ, 2001, INTEGRATED ASSESSMEN, V2, P173 TULPULE V, 1999, ENERGY J, P257 VANLIESHOUT M, 2004, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V14, P87 WIGLEY TML, 1997, NATURE, V390, P267 YOHE GW, 1996, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V32, P387 YOHE GW, 2002, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V12, P25 YOHE GW, 1995, J ENV EC MANAGE, V9 NR 51 TC 1 J9 ENVIRON SCI POLICY BP 572 EP 578 PY 2005 VL 8 IS 6 GA 991MD UT ISI:000233817200005 ER PT J AU HENNESSEY, TM TI GOVERNANCE AND ADAPTIVE MANAGEMENT FOR ESTUARINE ECOSYSTEMS - THE CASE OF CHESAPEAKE BAY SO COASTAL MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article RP HENNESSEY, TM, UNIV RHODE ISL,DEPT POLIT SCI,WASHBURN HALL,KINGSTON,RI 02881. AB This article analyzes the governance system of the Chesapeake Bay Program in order to examine the hypothesis that it operates according to adaptive management principles. After a discussion of adaptive management and implementation, we analyze the development of the program from its inception in 1976 until the present day. We argue that adaptive management in the program came about via a dynamic relationship between science and governance that evolved through three phases over 16 years. During this time, the Chesapeake Bay Program developed a learning, adaptive capacity whereby program elements and institutional structures underwent significant changes in light of new information. This approach encouraged the evolution of the program from one that initially addressed a limited number of issues using a rudimentary management structure to the current program, which uses a sophisticated set of baywide indicators of ecosystem health and is governed by an institutional structure that coordinates management activities across federal, state, and local governments around the bay in order to implement 29 specific programs in six major policy areas. The article concludes with an overall assessment of the Chesapeake Program that identifies its major strengths and weaknesses. Among the latter are the overall cost of the program, particularly initial investments in characterization and later expenditures on a bay model, and the lateness of evaluative efforts. Finally, we note the difficulty of operationalizing the concept of ecosystem management and the necessity of relying on surrogates to evaluate progress in ecosystem restoration and protection. NR 0 TC 19 J9 COAST MANAGE BP 119 EP 145 PY 1994 PD APR-JUN VL 22 IS 2 GA NR761 UT ISI:A1994NR76100002 ER PT J AU PICCHI, D TI VILLAGE DIVISION IN LOWLAND SOUTH-AMERICA - THE CASE OF THE BAKAIRI INDIANS OF CENTRAL BRAZIL SO HUMAN ECOLOGY LA English DT Article RP PICCHI, D, FRANKLIN PIERCE COLL,COLL RD,POB 60,RINDGE,NH 03461. AB A Brazilian Indian village divided into several settlements during the 1980s. In this article, the political ecology approach is used to account for the process whereby this occurred Data on ecology, subsistence practices, demography, and regional dynamics are presented. Analysis of results explores the articulation between shifts in population levels both in the region and in the Indian reservation, on one hand, with environmental stresses on reservation resources. The effects on national economic development programs on the regional and local levels are also discussed. The relationship between these policies and programs, on one hand, and alterations in local production systems are made explicit. 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CR BOSERUP E, 1965, CONDITIONS AGR GROWT BOSERUP E, 1990, EC DEMOGRAPHIC RELAT MURPHY RF, 1981, TOTEMS TEACHERS PERS, P171 NETTING R, 1976, HUM ECOL, V4, P135 NETTING RM, 1963, THESIS U CHICAGO NETTING RM, 1965, ANTHR Q, V38, P81 NETTING RM, 1968, HILL FARMERS NIGERIA NETTING RM, 1972, ANTHR Q, V45, P132 NETTING RM, 1972, POPULATION GROWTH AN, P219 NETTING RM, 1973, J ANTHROPOL RES, V29, P164 NETTING RM, 1977, CULTURAL ECOLOGY NETTING RM, 1981, BALANCING ALP ECOLOG NETTING RM, 1982, BEHAV SOCIAL SCI RES, P446 NETTING RM, 1984, HOUSEHOLDS COMP HIST NETTING RM, 1986, CULTURAL ECOLOGY NETTING RM, 1989, HUM ECOL, V17, P299 NETTING RM, 1993, SMALLHOLDERS HOUSEHO ORLOVE BS, 1980, ANNU REV ANTHROPOL, V9, P235 OSTROM E, 1987, QUESTION COMMONS OSTROM E, 1990, GOVERNING COMMONS EV RAPPAPORT RA, 1967, PIGS ANCESTORS RITUA, V1, P1 STEWARD JH, 1936, ESSAYS ANTHR PRESENT, P331 STEWARD JH, 1938, BUREAU AM ETHNOLOGY, V120 STEWARD JH, 1955, THEORY CULTURE CHANG VAYDA AP, 1968, INTRO CULTURAL ANTHR, P477 VAYDA AP, 1975, ANNU REV ANTHROPOL, V4, P293 VAYDA AP, 1991, PHILOS SOC SCI, V21, P318 WOLF E, 1957, SW J ANTHR, V13, P1 WOLF ER, 1982, EUROPE PEOPLE HIST NR 29 TC 1 J9 HUM ECOL BP 125 EP 135 PY 1996 PD MAR VL 24 IS 1 GA UB764 UT ISI:A1996UB76400006 ER PT J AU Yarnal, B TI Integrated regional assessment and climate change impacts in river basins SO CLIMATE RESEARCH LA English DT Article C1 Penn State Univ, Dept Geog, University Pk, PA 16802 USA. Penn State Univ, Ctr Integrated Reg Assessment, University Pk, PA 16802 USA. RP Yarnal, B, Penn State Univ, Dept Geog, University Pk, PA 16802 USA. AB Integrated regional assessment of climate change is an interdisciplinary, iterative process that involves scientific, policy, and societal stakeholders. The goal of integrated regional assessment is to promote a better understanding of, and more informed decisions on, how locales and regions contribute to and are affected by climate change. The purpose of the paper is to explain what integrated regional assessment is and how it is being used by practitioners. It aims to promote this approach by offering a more comprehensive account of integrated regional assessment than has been presented before. The article uses the integrated assessment of climate change impacts in river basins to provide a concrete regional basis for discussion. Case studies of 3 integrated assessments of river basins are presented to demonstrate the value of this approach. It is argued that when integrated regional assessment works, it provides an ideal way of bringing together science, society, and policy to face the challenges of climate change. 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Vrije Univ Amsterdam, Inst Environm Studies, NL-1081 HV Amsterdam, Netherlands. Carnegie Mellon Univ, Ctr Integrated Study Human Dimens Global Change, Pittsburgh, PA 15213 USA. RP Tol, RSJ, Univ Hamburg, Ctr Marine & Climate Res, Bundesstr 55, D-20146 Hamburg, Germany. AB One hundred and three estimates of the marginal damage costs of carbon dioxide emissions were gathered from 28 published studies and combined to form a probability density function. The uncertainty is strongly right-skewed. If all studies are combined, the mode is $2/tC, the median $14/tC, the mean $93/tC, and the 95 percentile $350/tC. Studies with a lower discount rate have higher estimates and much greater uncertainties. Similarly, studies that use equity weighing, have higher estimates and larger uncertainties. Interestingly, studies that are peer-reviewed have lower estimates and smaller uncertainties. Using standard assumptions about discounting and aggregation, the marginal damage costs of carbon dioxide emissions are unlikely to exceed $50/tC, and probably much smaller. (c) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 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SVEDIN U, 1988, SWEDISH PERSPECTIVES TANG X, 1988, HUMAN DIMENSIONS GLO THOMAS WL, 1956, MANS ROLE CHANGING F TIMMERMAN P, 1981, ENV MONOGRAPH, V1, P1 TORRENS IM, 1984, ENVIRON INT, V10, P419 TOTH F, 1988, SCENARIOS SOCIOECONO TURNER BL, IN PRESS EARTH TRANS VASKO T, 1987, LONGWAVE DEBATE VAUPEL J, 1986, CANCER RATES OVER AG VERNADSKY VI, 1945, AM SCI, V33, P1 VOGEL D, 1986, NATIONAL STYLES REGU WALLERSTEIN I, 1974, MODERN WORLD SYSTEM WHITE GF, 1988, ENVIRONMENT, V30, P1 WHITE GF, 1988, GREENHOUSE GASES NIL WHYTE AV, 1980, SCOPE15 REP WILDAVSKY A, 1979, SPEAKING TRUTH POWER WILLIAMS GDV, 1988, IMPACT CLIMATIC VARI, V1, P219 WINEIT RA, 1986, INFORMATION BEHAVIOR WOLMAN MG, 1987, LAND TRANSFORMATION WUEBBLES DJ, 1988, DOENBB0083 NR 174 TC 5 J9 INT SOC SCI J BP 315 EP 345 PY 1989 PD AUG VL 41 IS 3 GA AR860 UT ISI:A1989AR86000003 ER PT J AU Lindner, M TI Forest management strategies in the context of potential climate change SO FORSTWISSENSCHAFTLICHES CENTRALBLATT LA German DT Article C1 Potsdam Inst Klimafolgenforsch, D-14412 Potsdam, Germany. RP Lindner, M, Potsdam Inst Klimafolgenforsch, Postfach 601203, D-14412 Potsdam, Germany. AB In forest management there is frequently the need to make decisions with long-term consequences. Forests which are planted today may be exposed to a quite different climate within 50 to 100 years. To date, very few investigations have analysed the impacts of the projected climate changes in managed forests. Consequently there is a need for improved decision support for the development of forest management strategies in the concert of global change. This paper analyses how different forest management strategies influence the adaptation of forest stands to changing environmental conditions. Furthermore, a simulation model was applied to demonstrate the strong influence of management on forest development within the next 110 years under current climate conditions and under a scenario of climate change. The simulation results for a forestry district in northeastern Germany showed that, in all investigated scenarios, climate change affected forest composition and productivity. However, there were also distinct differences between the simulated management strategies. Whereas a conservative management strategy resulted in relatively small changes in simulated species composition but in a strong decrease in productivity between present climate and climate change scenario, an adaptive forest management strategy was able to partly mitigate the reduction in productivity by means of a shift to more drought tolerant tree species. It is concluded that the simulation results of the extended forest gap model with forest management routines provide opportunities to evaluate and optimize forest management strategies for the adaptation of forest stands to changing climatic conditions. 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AB Climate change represents a significant threat to global biodiversity and ecosystem integrity. The UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), which has been ratified by 118 nations and came into force in 1994, has amongst its aims the protection of ecosystems. This paper reviews the relevant text in the Convention and gives an overview of scientific efforts to provide policy-makers with the necessary information on ecosystem impacts. The sensitivity of different types of ecosystem to climatic change is discussed and the concepts of ecological limits and thresholds are addressed and examples given. The paper concludes there is a need for a better understanding of the impacts of climate change on ecosystem resilience in order to maintain biological diversity and respond to the needs of policymakers in implementing the UNFCCC. Recommendations are made for increased research effort, including increased resolution of climate models, better predictive capacity at a regional level for within- and between-year rainfall patterns, seasonality and extreme events. Collaborative monitoring programs, including long-term ecological research along climate gradients, are proposed for 4 biomes: coastal wetlands, montane ecosystems, coral reefs and Arctic ecosystems. 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Fdn Futuro Latinoamer, Quito, Ecuador. IUCN, CH-1196 Gland, Switzerland. UN, Millennium Project, New York, NY 10017 USA. RP Melnick, DJ, Columbia Univ, Ctr Environm Res & Conservat, 1200 Amsterdam Ave, New York, NY 10027 USA. CR MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 *UN MILL PROJ, 2005, ENV HUM WELL BEING P BRUCE N, 2000, B WORLD HEALTH ORGAN, V78, P1078 BURKE L, 2000, PILOT ANAL GLOBAL EC DASZAK P, 2002, CONSERVATION MED ECO FEDSON DS, 2003, CLIN INFECT DIS, V36, P1562 KOJIMA M, 2001, 508 WORLD BANK LOGIUDICE K, 2003, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V100, P567 MANGA L, 1995, ANN SOC BELG MED TR, V75, P129 MOLYNEUX DH, 1997, ANN TROP MED PARASIT, V91, P827 NORRIS DE, 2004, ECOHEALTH, V1, P19 PATZ JA, 2002, CONSERVATION MED ECO PATZ JA, 2004, ENVIRON HEALTH PERSP, V112, P1092 PAULY D, 1998, SCIENCE, V279, P860 PEARL M, 2004, HUMAN I CAPACITY BUI ROBERTS CM, 2002, SCIENCE, V295, P1280 SODHI NS, 2004, TRENDS ECOL EVOL, V19, P654 TAYLOR LH, 2001, PHILOS T ROY SOC B, V356, P983 VASCONCELOS PFC, 2001, CAD SAUDE PUBLICA S, V17, P155 WALSH JF, 1993, PARASITOLOGY, V106, P55 NR 20 TC 2 J9 LANCET BP 723 EP 725 PY 2005 PD FEB 19 VL 365 IS 9460 GA 898SP UT ISI:000227096800031 ER PT J AU Leslie, PW Little, MA TI Human biology and ecology: Variation in nature and the nature of variation SO AMERICAN ANTHROPOLOGIST LA English DT Article C1 Univ N Carolina, Chapel Hill, NC 27599 USA. SUNY Binghamton, Binghamton, NY 13902 USA. RP Leslie, PW, Univ N Carolina, Chapel Hill, NC 27599 USA. AB Human biology seeks to understand human variation and the biological, environmental, social, and historical influences on that variation. Views of the nature of both variation and environment have changed during the past 100 years. Typological approaches to nature and human diversity shifted to an evolutionary perspective during the first half of the 20th century. In the second half, widespread human biological variation was documented and interpreted in terms of adaptation to the environment. Environmental physiology and reproductive ecology continue to document environmental influences on human biological functioning, but with (1) an expanded concept of environment that acknowledges more fully the interactions among its physical, biotic, and social aspects and (2) an expanded theoretical basis, drawing on evolutionary ecology and life history theory, acknowledging tradeoffs and changing constraints and opportunities over the lifetime. Human biology gains from greater interaction with other fields, such as political ecology, but also contributes to them. 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RP Vogel, C, Univ Witwatersrand, Sch Archaeol Geog & Environm Studies, Post Bag 3, ZA-2050 Johannesburg, South Africa. AB Rural, resource-poor communities currently face a number of stressors that curtail livelihood options and reduce overall quality of life. Climate stress in southern Africa could potentially further threaten the livelihoods of such communities. Inappropriate response and adaptation options to risks, including climate stress, could further undermine development efforts in the region. The design and effective implementation of strategies to improve coping and adaptation to possible future risks cannot be undertaken without a detailed assessment of current response options to various risks. By using the Sustainable Livelihoods Framework, this pilot study identifies some of the strategies and constraints to secure livelihoods that are currently being used by small-scale farmers in the Muden area of KwaZulu-Natal. The role and perception of climate risks in relation to a variety of other constraints and risks in the area are also examined. Health status, lack of information and ineffective institutional structures and processes are shown to be some of the key factors aggravating current response options and overall development initiatives with potential negative outcomes for future adaptation to periods of possible heightened climate stress. (C) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 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RP Dwyer, PD, Univ Melbourne, Sch Anthropol Geog & Environm Studies, Melbourne, Vic 3010, Australia. AB Within Papua New Guinea the relationship people have with their pigs varies between societies. These differences arise in the earliest phase of rearing piglets and result in domestic animals whose primary attachments are to other pigs, to places or to people. For Papua New Guineans, different pig management regimes fulfill ecological and social needs. In addition, however, the ways in which pigs are raised and managed, and the presence or absence of a local population of wild pigs, have consequences for the exposure of both domestic pigs and people to parasites that they may host. Effective control of disease-inducing parasites should be attentive to society-specific relationships between people and their pigs. (C) 2005 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved. 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RP Lobell, DB, Lawrence Livermore Natl Lab, Energy & Environm Directorate, 7000 East Ave,L-638, Livermore, CA 94550 USA. AB It is well known that expansion of agriculture into natural ecosystems can have important climatic consequences, but changes occurring within existing croplands also have the potential to effect local and global climate. To better understand the impacts of cropland management practices, we used the NCAR CAM3 general circulation model coupled to a slab-ocean model to simulate climate change under extreme scenarios of irrigation, tillage, and crop productivity. Compared to a control scenario, increases in irrigation and leaf area index and reductions in tillage all have a physical cooling effect by causing increases in planetary albedo. The cooling is most pronounced for irrigation, with simulated local cooling up to similar to 8 degrees C and global land surface cooling of 1.3 degrees C. Increases in soil albedo through reduced tillage are found to have a global cooling effect ( similar to 0.2 degrees C) comparable to the biogeochemical cooling from reported carbon sequestration potentials. By identifying the impacts of extreme scenarios at local and global scales, this study effectively shows the importance of considering different aspects of crop management in the development of climate models, analysis of observed climate trends, and design of policy intended to mitigate climate change. CR MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 ABROL IP, 2005, CONSERVATION AGR STA ADEGOKE JO, 2003, MON WEATHER REV, V131, P556 ANDALES AA, 2000, AGR SYST, V66, P69 BETTS RA, 2001, ATMOS SCI LETT, V2, P39 BONAN GB, 1997, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V37, P449 BONAN GB, 2002, GLOBAL BIOGEOCHEM CY, V16 BOUCHER O, 2004, CLIM DYNAM, V22, P597 BROVKIN V, 1999, GLOBAL ECOL BIOGEOGR, V8, P509 CHASE TN, 2001, J GEOPHYS RES-ATMOS, V106, P31685 COLLINS WD, 2004, NCARTN464STR COOLEY HS, 2005, J GEOPHYS RES-ATMOS, V110 DEFRIES RS, 2002, GLOBAL CHANGE BIOL, V8, P438 DERIDDER K, 1998, J APPL METEOROL, V37, P1470 DIRMEYER PA, 2005, 192 COLA NASA GODD S FEDDEMA JJ, 2005, SCIENCE, V310, P1674 GIBBARD S, 2005, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V32 GOVINDASAMY B, 2001, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V28, P291 GREGORY PJ, 2002, AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON, V88, P279 KOSTER RD, 2004, SCIENCE, V305, P1138 LAL R, 2004, SCIENCE, V304, P1623 LOVELAND TR, 2000, INT J REMOTE SENS, V21, P1303 MAHMOOD R, 2004, INT J CLIMATOL, V24, P311 MAIERREIMER E, 1987, CLIM DYNAM, V2, P63 MATTHEWS HD, 2003, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V30 MATTHIAS AD, 2000, SOIL SCI SOC AM J, V64, P1035 MEYER WB, 1992, ANNU REV ECOL SYST, V23, P39 MYHRE G, 2003, J CLIMATE, V16, P1511 OLESON K, 2004, NCARTN461STR PIELKE RA, 2001, REV GEOPHYS, V39, P151 SITCH S, 2005, GLOBAL BIOGEOCHEM CY, V19 TIAN Y, 2004, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V31 NR 32 TC 2 J9 GEOPHYS RES LETT PY 2006 PD MAR 23 VL 33 IS 6 GA 026NE UT ISI:000236344900008 ER PT J AU Turner, MD TI Merging local and regional analyses of land-use change: The case of livestock in the Sahel SO ANNALS OF THE ASSOCIATION OF AMERICAN GEOGRAPHERS LA English DT Review C1 Int Livestock Res Ctr, Niamey, Niger. RP Turner, MD, Int Livestock Res Ctr, Niamey, Niger. AB This paper argues against the dichotomization of "regional" and "local" analyses of land-use change by environmental geographers. Such dichotomization has led regional analyses to unnecessarily exclude from consideration ecological, sociocultural, and political factors identified to be important in local studies, Simple rules of evidence that systematically label such factors as "locally specific" facilitate such exclusion. For example, gender relations in rural Africa, while shown in local studies to play an important role in land-use change, are often excluded from consideration in regional analyses. This study analyzes the causes behind the regionwide shift toward small stock (sheep and goats) in the Sahel, using demographic and transaction histories (1984-1994) of livestock owned by members of fifty-four households in western Niger. Changes in the composition of this livestock population replicate that observed across the region in direction and magnitude. An analysis of these data demonstrates that the shift in species composition is not driven by changes in price or livestock productivity. While species preferences of individual owners (controlled by wealth) have not changed over the period, the distribution of livestock ownership has changed, with smallholders and women controlling a larger fraction of aggregate livestock wealth. The gendered shift in livestock wealth is closely associated with struggles between men and women over their relative obligations to support the family. Women's situation within the household has led some to accumulate large herds of small stock. Key features of intrahousehold struggles contributing to the shift in livestock composition in Niger are common across the Sudano-Sahelian region. The broader implications of these findings for the analysis of regional changes in land use are discussed. CR *I RECH SCI HUM, 1977, ET SAY RAPP FIN *MIN AGR EL, 1993, ANN STAT AGR EL 1991 *UN SUD SAH OFF, 1992, ASS DES DROUGHT SUD AMANOR KS, 1995, AFRICA, V65, P351 ANDERSON D, 1987, CONSERVATION AFRICA BASSETT TJ, 1986, GEOGR REV, V76, P233 BASSETT TJ, 1988, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V78, P433 BASSETT TJ, 1994, CAH ETUD AFR, V34, P147 BELLOT JM, 1980, THESIS U BORDEAUX 3 BLACK R, 1990, T I BRIT GEOGR, V15, P35 BLAIKIE PM, 1985, POLITICAL EC SOIL ER BLAIKIE PM, 1987, LAND DEGRADATION SOC BLAIKIE PM, 1994, CASID DISTINGUISHED, V13 BONFIGLIOLI AM, 1985, J AFRICANISTES, V55, P29 BOURN D, 1994, 37A OV DEV I BUTTEL F, 1994, SOCIAL THEORY GLOBAL, P228 CALLAWAY B, 1994, HERITAGE ISLAM WOMEN CARNEY JA, 1992, DEV CHANGE, V23, P67 CHISHOLM M, 1980, T I BRIT GEOGR, V5, P255 CLARK WC, 1985, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V7, P5 CLOUD K, 1986, WOMEN FARMERS AFRICA, P19 COLES C, 1991, HAUSA WOMEN 20 CENTU, P163 COMAROFF J, 1991, HERDERS WARRIORS TRA, P33 COOPER B, 1997, MARRIAGE MARADI GEND COSSINS NJ, 1985, ILCA B, V21, 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GEOGR, V50, P256 HECHT SB, 1985, WORLD DEV, V13, P663 HIERNAUX P, 1996, 39A OV DEV ADM HIERNAUX P, 1996, RANGELANDS SUSTAINAB, P230 HILL P, 1972, RURAL HAUSA VILLAGE HUTCHINSON S, 1992, AM ETHNOL, V19, P294 JAROSZ L, 1993, ECON GEOGR, V69, P366 KIMBA I, 1981, ETUDES NIGERIENNES, V46 KULIBABA NP, 1991, LIVESTOCK MEAT TRANS LEACH M, 1996, LIE LAND MCINTIRE J, 1989, MILLET SYSTEM W NIGE METZEL J, 1993, EC COMP ADVANTAGE IN MEYER WB, 1992, ANNU REV ECOL SYST, V23, P39 MONIMART M, 1989, FEMMES SAHEL DESERTI MORTIMORE MJ, 1989, ADAPTING DROUGHT FAR MOULIN CH, 1993, THESIS I NATL AGRONO NGAIDO T, 1996, THESIS U WISCONSIN M NICOLAS J, 1967, ETUDES NIGERIENNES, V21 OBOLER RS, 1996, HUM ECOL, V24, P255 PAINTER T, 1994, AFRICAN POPULATION C, P122 PAPMA A, 1989, MAI TIFIA CELLES QUI PEDERSEN J, 1995, POP STUD-J DEMOG, V49, P111 PEET R, 1993, ECON GEOGR, V69, P227 PELUSO NL, 1993, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V3, P199 PORTER PW, 1978, AM BEHAV SCI, V22, P15 PROST A, 1970, B I FONDAMENTALE A B, V32, P486 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1985, 9 LPU INT LIV CTR AF TOULMIN C, 1992, CATTLE WOMEN WELLS M TURNER BL, 1990, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V1, P14 TURNER BL, 1997, ECUMENE, V4, P196 TURNER M, 1993, ECON GEOGR, V69, P402 VANKEULEN H, 1990, AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON, V32, P177 VERMEER DE, 1981, GEOGR REV, V71, P281 VOH AA, 1989, ANIM REPROD SCI, V19, P191 WAGENAAR KT, 1986, 13 INT LIV CTR AFR WATTS MJ, 1983, INTERPRETATIONS CALA, P231 WATTS MJ, 1983, SILENT VIOLENCE FOOD WHITE C, 1990, PROPERTY POVERTY PEO, P240 WHITE F, 1983, VEGETATION AFRICA WHITEHEAD A, 1990, POLITICAL EC HUNGER, P427 WILLIAMS M, 1994, J HIST GEOGR, V20, P3 WILLIAMS TO, 1994, AGR SYST, V46, P227 WILLIAMS TO, 1995, LIVESTOCK SUSTAINABL, P393 WILSON RT, 1986, 14 ILCA INT LIV CTR WILSON RT, 1989, ANIM REPROD SCI, V20, P265 ZIMMERER K, 1996, CONCEPTS HUMAN GEOGR, P161 NR 119 TC 14 J9 ANN ASSN AMER GEOGR BP 191 EP 219 PY 1999 PD JUN VL 89 IS 2 GA 199MM UT ISI:000080486000001 ER PT J AU KONAKOV, ND TI ECOLOGICAL ADAPTATION OF KOMI RESETTLED GROUPS SO ARCTIC ANTHROPOLOGY LA English DT Article RP KONAKOV, ND, SYKTYVKAR LANGUAGE LITERATURE & HIST INST,SYKTYVKAR,RUSSIA. AB The Komi [Zyriane or Zyrian] people have inhabited the European Northeast of Russia since ancient times. Komi groups first appeared in the Vychegda River basin in the first millennium A.D. In the course of the following centuries, they spread into the Pechora River basin. The northernmost groups, who adopted reindeer husbandry from the Nentsy, spread with their herds as far as the shores of the arctic Ocean. At present, the main body of the Komi, numbering about 300,000, occupies the territory of the Komi Autonomous Republic of the former USSR. Their language belongs to the Finno-Ugric linguistic family. However, as a result of migration processes, about 46,000 Komi now reside outside of their autonomous territory. Among this number are groups which live in compact ethnic enclaves developed in the course of their history. This paper is focused on these groups. The factors by means of which ecological adaptation is achieved in new territories are examined. The problem of recreating-in a new environment-the traditional economic system, which functioned as the basis of stability of the traditional cultural-economic complex as a whole, is given special attention. CR ARUTYUNOV SA, 1982, ETNOS DOKLASSOVOM RA, P55 BARAKSANOV GG, 1987, OMSKIE KOMI CHARNOLUSKII VV, 1930, KOLSKII SBORNIK ENGELGARDT AP, 1897, PROVINCE N FEDOTOV VS, 1955, OLENEVODCHESKII KOLK INDOVA EI, 1973, MATERIALY ISTORII EV, V3, P235 KHARUZIN NN, 1890, RUSSKIE LOPARI KHOMICH LV, 1977, ETNOGRAFICHESKIE ISS KIHLMAN AO, 1890, 1889 SCI EXP RUSS LA, V3 KOLMOGOROV A, 1906, ZEMLEVEDENIE, P136 KOMAKOV ND, 1987, SMENY KULTUR MIGRATS, P129 KONAKOV ND, 1983, KOMI HUNTERS FISHERM KONAKOV ND, 1990, ETNOAREALNYE GRUPPY LASHUK LP, 1958, ESSAY ETHNIC HIST PE MELETIEV L, 1909, COMMUNICATIONS ARKHA, V8, P35 OBORIN VA, 1960, UCHENYE ZAPISKI PERM, V12, P219 SABUROVA LM, 1967, CULTURE DAILY LIFE R SAVELEVA EA, 1971, VYCHEGDA PERM PEOPLE SHUKHOV IN, 1927, KOMI MU, V8, P39 ZHEREBTSOV LN, 1972, KOMI SETTLEMENT AREA ZHEREBTSOV LN, 1982, HIST CULTURAL INTERR NR 21 TC 0 J9 ARCTIC ANTHROPOL BP 92 EP 102 PY 1993 VL 30 IS 2 GA ML250 UT ISI:A1993ML25000005 ER PT J AU Ahmad, QK TI Towards poverty alleviation: The water sector perspectives SO INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF WATER RESOURCES DEVELOPMENT LA English DT Article C1 Bangladesh Unnayan Parishad, Dhaka 1212, Bangladesh. RP Ahmad, QK, Bangladesh Unnayan Parishad, Plot 50,Block D,Gulshan 1, Dhaka 1212, Bangladesh. AB Given the context of diminishing water availability as a result of water pollution and inadequate development of water resources on the supply side and. increasing population and expanding economic activity on the demand side, this paper reviews water-poverty interfaces and suggests ways of contributing to poverty alleviation through water sector interventions. The unequal distribution of the available water within communities and among various water users in the same country and across countries is discussed as a key issue in this context. The paper examines the causes of poverty with particular reference to the pattern of access to water supply as well as to water for various economic activities. It also considers water-related disasters such as flood, cyclone and riverbank erosion and their adverse human and natural consequences. Water deprivation is seen as both a state and a process-the former being the situation prevailing at a particular point of time and the later implying how that state has been reached and how may it evolve in future. The paper argues that the water crisis is primarily one of management, given the persisting traditional-sectorally focused and fragmented-approach. The appropriate alternative, it is argued, is integrated water resource management (IWRM), which is holistic in approach and focuses on the various uses of water and different categories of its users. It suggests ways of moving forward in terms of improved and participatory water development and management, which can contribute significantly to poverty alleviation. The second part of the paper highlights the National Water Policy of Bangladesh as a case study. The policy, adopted in 1999, broadly encompasses the various elements of IWRM. It enunciates principles and directions for water planning and utilization towards fulfilling the national goals of economic development, poverty alleviation, food security, public health and safety, decent standard of living of the people and protection of the natural environment. The policy has adopted a holistic approach and provided guidelines for participatory water management. The paper points out that a Bangladesh National Water Management Plan has been drafted within the framework of the National Water Policy with a view to improving water development and management so as to address human, economic and environmental needs of water, with special emphasis on the water needs of the poorer segments of society. CR 2001, BONN INT C FRESW 3 7 *GLOB WAT PARTN, 2000, WAT SEC FRAM ACT MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 *MIN WAT RES, 1999, NAT WAT POL *MIN WAT RES, 2000, GUID PART WAT MAN *UNDP, 2002, HUM DEV REP 2002 *WAT RES PLANN ORG, 2001, DRAFT NAT WAT MAN PL *WORLD WAT COMM, 2000, WAT SEC WORLD VIS WA AHMAD QK, 2000, BANGLADESH WATER VIS AHMAD QK, 2001, GANGES BRAHMAPUTRA M MOHAMMED A, 2002, S AS WAT CLIM TASK F STAMOULIS KG, 2001, FOOD AGR RURAL DEV C NR 12 TC 0 J9 INT J WATER RESOUR DEV BP 263 EP 277 PY 2003 PD JUN VL 19 IS 2 GA 696PA UT ISI:000183894200014 ER PT J AU Palutikof, JP Agnew, MD Hoar, MR TI Public perceptions of unusually warm weather in the UK: impacts, responses and adaptations SO CLIMATE RESEARCH LA English DT Article C1 Univ E Anglia, Sch Environm Sci, Climat Res Unit, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. RP Palutikof, JP, Univ E Anglia, Sch Environm Sci, Climat Res Unit, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. AB Evidence of socio-economic sensitivity to climate variability is accumulating and is largely based on modelling studies. This paper examines the impacts of climate extremes (unusually hot summers and unusually warm winters) from the perspective of the perception of the general public. Postal surveys were conducted for 2 regions in the UK: (1) southern England and (2) central and southern Scotland. Information was gathered regarding attitudes to warm climate anomalies, the perceived risks and benefits of recent extremes, and the perceived potential risks and benefits of such anomalies becoming more common in the future. The impacts of climate extremes were assessed with regard to (1) the individual's 'everyday life' and (2) the national 'good'. The responses indicate a high level of awareness of the impacts of climate extremes and deep concerns about global warming tempered by an appreciation that there is potential for both positive and negative outcomes. For several issues, the perception of respondents from Scotland and England differed significantly. In particular, more English than Scottish residents judge unusually warm summers as having a severe negative impact on agriculture and air quality than do Scottish residents. We suggest that regional differences in climate could at least in part explain the apparent geographic differences in response. The results indicate both short-term and long-term adaptive and behavioural responses to a season of exceptional warmth and a willingness to implement further lifestyle adjustments for a hypothetical future in which such events become more common. CR *CCIRG, 1996, REV POT EFF CLIM CHA WATSON RT, 1998, REGIONAL IMPACTS CLI, V1, P1 *IPCC, 2001, 3 IPCC *MAFF, 2000, CLIM CHANG AGR UK *NAT ASS SYNTH TEA, 2000, CLIM CHANG IMP US PO *SCOTT OFF, 1998, SCOTT ABSTR STAT *STAT OFF, 2001, NAT STAT REG TRENDS ADER CR, 1995, JOURNALISM MASS COMM, V72, P300 ARNELL NW, 1996, GLOBAL WARMING RIVER BERK RA, 1995, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V19, P1 BERK RA, 1999, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V41, P413 BORD RJ, 1998, CLIMATE RES, V11, P75 BORD RJ, 2000, PUBLIC UNDERST SCI, V9, P205 BRUGGE R, 1992, WEATHER, V47, P230 CANNELL MGR, 1993, IMPACTS MILD WINTERS DARIER E, 1998, WP981 ULYSSES DARMST DEGAETANO AT, 1999, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V42, P539 DOWNING TE, 1999, 21 U OXF ENV CHANG U DUKES M, 1997, CLIMATES BRIT ISLES, P262 DUNLAP RE, 1998, INT SOCIOL, V13, P473 GONZALEZ LE, 1997, CLIMATE RES, V9, P95 GOWDA MVR, 1997, B AM METEOROL SOC, V78, P2232 HARRISON CM, 1996, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V6, P215 HAUGHTON G, 1998, T I BRIT GEOGR, V23, P419 HULME M, 1997, EC IMPACTS HOT SUMME, P5 HULME M, 1999, INDICATORS CLIMATE C, P6 HULME M, 2002, CLIMATE CHANGE SCENA JONES PD, 1997, INT J CLIMATOL, V17, P427 JORDAN A, 2000, 200001 CSERGE U E AN KEMPTON W, 1991, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V1, P183 KEMPTON W, 1991, SOC NATUR RESOUR, V4, P331 KEMPTON W, 1997, ENVIRONMENT, V39, P12 KRAMER K, 1996, CLIMATE RES, V7, P31 KROSNICK JA, 2000, PUBLIC UNDERST SCI, V9, P239 MARSH TJ, 1996, P I CIVIL ENG-WATER, V118, P189 MARSH TJ, 1996, WEATHER, V51, P46 MARTENS P, 1998, HLTH CLIMATE CHANGE MCMICHAEL AJ, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE HUMAN OCONNOR RE, 1998, RISK ANAL, V18, P547 OCONNOR RE, 1999, RISK ANAL, V19, P461 PARRY ML, 2000, ASSESSMENT POTENTIAL PERRON B, 2001, SOC NATUR RESOUR, V14, P837 RUDIG W, 1995, 101 U STRATHCL DEP G SCHELLNHUBER HJ, 1994, PIK REPORTS, V2 SEACREST S, 2000, J AM WATER RESOUR AS, V36, P253 SHANAHAN J, 2000, PUBLIC UNDERST SCI, V9, P285 STAMM KR, 2000, PUBLIC UNDERST SCI, V9, P219 STERNGOLD A, 1994, PUBLIC OPIN QUART, V58, P255 STOLLKLEEMANN S, 2001, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V11, P107 SUBAK S, 2000, WATER RESOUR MANAG, V14, P137 UNGAR S, 2000, PUBLIC UNDERST SCI, V9, P297 NR 51 TC 0 J9 CLIMATE RES BP 43 EP 59 PY 2004 PD APR 19 VL 26 IS 1 GA 830AY UT ISI:000222095200005 ER PT J AU Siemens, AH TI Modeling the tropical wetland landscape and adaptations SO AGRICULTURE AND HUMAN VALUES LA English DT Article C1 Univ British Columbia, Dept Geog, Vancouver, BC V5Z 1M9, Canada. RP Siemens, AH, 41-1550 Larkhall Crescent, N Vancouver, BC V7H 2Z2, Canada. AB Prolonged investigations of past and present use of wetland margins in various lowlands within Latin America have yielded a wealth of detail. It has become necessary to search out regularities in the natural environmental context and the human adaptations, all of which can be done advantageously in the context of the concept of landscape. Such a move in the direction of theory is attempted here by means of a heuristic model and an exploration of variations in its expression. The discussion of seasonal as well as longer termed change in the natural environment and human adaptation is easily accomodated. The essay includes a brief consideration of some of the recent directions in the investigation of the tropical wetland landscape. CR COE MD, 1980, LAND OLMEC, V2 CROSSLEY PL, 1995, THESIS U TEXAS AUSTI CYPHERS A, 2000, MOUNDS MODOC MESOAME, V28, P99 DENEVAN WM, 2001, CULTIVATED LANDSCAPE DEVEVAN WM, 1978, ADV ANDEAN ARCHAEOLO, P235 DIOSDADO AH, 1985, SERIA ANTROPOLOGICA, V59 ERICKSON CL, 1995, ARCHAEOLOGY LOWLAND ERICKSON CL, 1999, ANTIQUITY, V73, P634 HEIMO M, 1998, THESIS U BRIT COLUMB HIRAOKA M, 1985, NATIONAL GEOGRAPHIC, V1, P236 HODELL DA, 1995, NATURE, V375, P391 NAIMAN RJ, 1990, MAN BIOSPHERE SERIES, V4 ODUM EP, 1971, FUNDAMENTALS ECOLOGY OROZCOSEGOVIA ADL, 1979, 43 C AM RICE DS, 1996, ARQUEOLOGIA MESOAMER, V2, P109 SCHOLES FV, 1968, MAYA CHONTAL INDIANS SIEMENS AH, 1972, AM ANTIQUITY, V37, P228 SIEMENS AH, 1982, BIOTICA, V3, P343 SIEMENS AH, 1983, AM ANTIQUITY, V48, P85 SIEMENS AH, 1989, TIERRA CONFIGURADA P SIEMENS AH, 1998, FAVORED PLACE SAN JU SIEMENS AH, 1999, ESTUDIOS HIST AMBIEN, V1, P219 SIEMENS AH, 1999, PACIFIC LATIN AM PRE SIEMENS AH, 2000, REV CESLA WARSAW, P57 SIEMENS AH, 2002, ANCIENT MESOAMERICA, V13, P1 WEST RC, 1969, TABASCO LOWLANDS SE WILK RR, 1981, THESIS U ARIZONA NR 27 TC 0 J9 AGRIC HUMAN VALUES BP 243 EP 254 PY 2004 PD SUM-FAL VL 21 IS 2-3 GA 838HT UT ISI:000222704800013 ER PT J AU McNeely, JA TI Conserving forest biodiversity in times of violent conflict SO ORYX LA English DT Article C1 IUCN World Conservat Union, CH-1196 Gland, Switzerland. RP McNeely, JA, IUCN World Conservat Union, CH-1196 Gland, Switzerland. AB Forests are often frontiers, and like all frontiers, they are sites of dynamic social, ecological, political and economic changes. Such dynamism involves constantly changing advantages and disadvantages to different groups of people, which not surprisingly can lead to armed conflict, and all too frequently to war. Many governments have contributed to conflict, however inadvertently, by nationalizing their forests, so that traditional forest inhabitants have been disenfranchised while national governments sell the rights to trees in order to earn foreign exchange. Biodiversity-rich tropical forests in Papua New Guinea, Indonesia, Indochina, Myanmar, Sri Lanka, Central and West Africa, the Amazon, Colombia, Central America and New Caledonia have all been the sites of armed conflict in recent years, sometimes involving international forces. Forests have sometimes been part of the cause of conflict (as in Myanmar and Sierra Leone) but more often victims of it. Violent conflicts in temperate areas also typically involve forests as shelters for both civilians and combatants, as in the Balkans. While these conflicts have frequently, even invariably, caused negative impacts on biodiversity, peace can be even worse, as it enables forest exploitation to operate with impunity. Because many of the remaining forests are along international borders, international cooperation is required for their conservation. As one response, the concept of international "Peace Parks" is being promoted in many parts of the world as a way of linking biodiversity conservation with national security. The Convention on Biological Diversity, which entered into force at the end of 1993 and now has 187 State Parties, offers a useful framework for such cooperation. 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RP Benitez, PC, Univ Victoria, Dept Econ, POB 1700 STN CSC, Victoria, BC V8W 2Y2, Canada. AB we have provided a framework for identifying least-cost sites for afforestation and reforestation and deriving carbon sequestration cost curves at a global level in a scenario of limited information. Special attention is given to country risk in developing countries and the sensitivity to spatial datasets. Our model results suggest that within 20 years and considering a carbon price of US$50/tC, tree-planting activities could offset 1 year of global carbon emissions in the energy sector. However, if we account for country risk considerations-associated with political, economic and financial risks-carbon sequestration is reduced by approximately 60%. With respect to the geography of supply, illustrated by grid-scale maps, we find that most least-cost sites are located in regions of developing countries such as the Sub-Sahara, Southeast Brazil and Southeast Asia. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. CR *CIESIN, 2000, CTR INT EARTH SCI IN *ECOSECURITIES, 2002, BAS DET PLANT EV EM *ESRI, 1998, WORLD COUNTR 1998 EN *FAO, 2001, GLOB FOR RES ASS 200 *FAO, 2002, FAOSTAT DAT FOOD AGR *FFC, 2003, 3 MONTH TREAS CONST *GTOPO30, 1996, GLOB DIG EL MOD HOR *IPCC, 2000, LAND US LAND US CHAN MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 *JRC, 2003, GLOB LAND COV 2000 D *MODIS, 2002, TERR LAND COV TYP 96 *PRS, 2004, TABL T2C COMP RISK F *UNFCCC, 1998, REP C PART ITS 3 SES *USGS, 2003, GLOB LAND COV CHAR G *WORLD BANK, 2003, WORLD DEV IND ALEXANDROV GA, 1999, ECOL MODEL, V123, P183 ALEXANDROV GA, 2002, ECOL MODEL, V148, P293 BEKAERT G, 1995, J FINANC, V50, P403 BENITEZ PC, FOREST POLICY EC CACHO OJ, 2002, C P AUSTR NZ SOC EC CREEDY J, 2001, ECOL ECON, V38, P71 DEJONG BHJ, 2000, ECOL ECON, V33, P313 ERB CB, 1996, PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT, P46 ERB CB, 1996, WP9606 DUK U CAMBRID FEARNSIDE PM, 1995, BIOMASS BIOENERG, V8, P309 GRITSEVSKYI A, 2003, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V56, P167 HANSEN MC, 2000, INT J REMOTE SENS, V21, P1331 KRCMAR E, 2005, 200506 REPA MASERA OR, 1995, BIOMASS BIOENERG, V8, P357 NIEUWENHUYSE A, 2000, FOREST ECOL MANAG, V137, P23 NILSSON S, 1995, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V30, P267 OLSCHEWSKI R, 2005, ECOL ECON, V55, P380 RAMANKUTTY N, 2001, GLOBAL DISTRIBUTION RAVINDRANATH NH, 1995, BIOMASS BIOENERG, V8, P323 SEDJO R, 1999, POTENTIAL CARBON FOR SIJM J, 2000, KYOTO MECH ROLE JOIN SOHNGEN B, 1999, AM J AGR ECON, V81, P1 SOHNGEN B, 2003, AM J AGR ECON, V85, P448 STAVINS RN, 1999, AM ECON REV, V89, P994 TREXLER MC, 1995, KEEPING GREEN EVALUA VANKOOTEN GC, 1995, AM J AGR ECON, V77, P365 VANKOOTEN GC, 2002, LAND ECON, V78, P559 XU DY, 1995, BIOMASS BIOENERG, V8, P337 NR 43 TC 0 J9 ECOL ECON BP 572 EP 583 PY 2007 PD JAN 15 VL 60 IS 3 GA 129PN UT ISI:000243741500011 ER PT J AU Sunyer, J Grimalt, J TI Global climate change, widening health inequalities, and epidemiology SO INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF EPIDEMIOLOGY LA English DT Editorial Material C1 Univ Pompeu Fabra, Unitat Rec Resp Ambiental, IMIM, Barcelona, Spain. CSIC, Cid, ES-08034 Barcelona, Spain. RP Sunyer, J, Univ Pompeu Fabra, Unitat Rec Resp Ambiental, IMIM, Barcelona, Spain. CR *WHO, 2002, WORLDS HLTH REP 2002 ARNELL NW, 2002, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V53, P413 EPSTEIN PR, 1998, B AM METEOROL SOC, V79, P409 EPSTEIN PR, 2005, NEW ENGL J MED, V353, P1433 GOUVEIA N, 2003, INT J EPIDEMIOL, V32, P241 HASSOL SJ, 2004, IMPACTS WARMING ARCT HAY SI, 2002, NATURE, V415, P905 HOLSTEIN J, 2005, J PUBLIC HEALTH, V27, P359 HOPP MJ, 2003, CLIMATE RES, V25, P85 KEARNEY MS, 2002, EOS T AM GEOPHYS UN, V83, P173 KLINENBERG E, 2003, HEAT WAVE SOCIAL AUT KOSATSKY T, 2005, EURO SURVEILL, V10, P148 LUTERBACHER J, 2004, SCIENCE, V303, P1499 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 MCMICHAEL AJ, 2001, P NUTR SOC, V60, P195 MCMICHAEL AJ, 2004, COMP QUANTIFICATION, P1543 MICHELOZZI P, 2004, MMWR-MORBID MORTAL W, V53, P369 PATZ JA, 2005, NATURE, V438, P310 ROGERS DJ, 2000, SCIENCE, V289, P1763 SCHAR C, 2004, NATURE, V427, P332 TANSER FC, 2003, LANCET, V362, P1792 WEBSTER PJ, 2005, SCIENCE, V309, P1844 NR 22 TC 1 J9 INT J EPIDEMIOL BP 213 EP 216 PY 2006 PD APR VL 35 IS 2 GA 033AI UT ISI:000236817900002 ER PT J AU Bandy, MS TI Fissioning, scalar stress, and social evolution in early village societies SO AMERICAN ANTHROPOLOGIST LA English DT Review C1 Univ Calif Los Angeles, Cotsen Inst Archaeol, Los Angeles, CA 90095 USA. RP Bandy, MS, Univ Calif Los Angeles, Cotsen Inst Archaeol, Los Angeles, CA 90095 USA. AB Theories of social evolution have predicted that early permanent population concentrations will frequently be unstable, with fissioning the predominant mechanism for resolving intravillage conflict. It has further been suggested that village fissioning will cease with the emergence of higher-level integrative institutions. These processes have remained archaeologically undocumented. In this article I attempt to identify the village fissioning process in the Formative Period of Bolivia's Titicaca Basin. I conclude that village fissioning took place in the Early Formative, and that it ceased with the emergence of a regional religious tradition in the Middle Formative. These results confirm the utility and applicability of the evolutionary model. 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RP Ford, JD, Univ Guelph, Dept Geog, Guelph, ON N1G 2W1, Canada. AB This paper develops a vulnerability-based approach to characterize the human implications of climate change in Arctic Bay, Canada. It focuses on community vulnerabilities associated with resource harvesting and the processes through which people adapt to them in the context of livelihood assets, constraints, and outside influences. Inuit in Arctic Bay have demonstrated significant adaptability in the face of changing climate-related exposures. This adaptability is facilitated by traditional Inuit knowledge, strong social networks, flexibility in seasonal hunting cycles, some modern technologies, and economic support. Changing Inuit livelihoods, however, have undermined certain aspects of adaptive capacity, and have resulted in emerging vulnerabilities in certain sections of the community. (C) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 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IMPAC, P184 WATTS MJ, 1993, PROG HUM GEOG, V17, P43 WENZEL G, 1991, ANIMAL RIGHTS HUMAN WENZEL G, 2001, INUIT STUDIES, V25, P37 WILKINSON D, 1955, LAND LONG DAY WOOLCOCK M, 2000, WORLD BANK RES OBSER, V15, P225 NR 132 TC 1 J9 GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANGE BP 145 EP 160 PY 2006 PD MAY VL 16 IS 2 GA 051NM UT ISI:000238167800004 ER PT J AU KAR, RK TI HUMAN ADAPTABILITY IN NORTHEAST INDIA SO CURRENT ANTHROPOLOGY LA English DT Article RP KAR, RK, DIBRUGARH UNIV,DEPT ANTHROPOL,DIBRUGARH 786004,INDIA. NR 0 TC 0 J9 CURR ANTHROPOL BP 133 EP 133 PY 1978 VL 19 IS 1 GA ES441 UT ISI:A1978ES44100012 ER PT J AU Mirza, MMQ TI Climate change and extreme weather events: can developing countries adapt? SO CLIMATE POLICY LA English DT Article C1 Univ Toronto, Inst Environm Studies, AIRG, Toronto, ON M5S 3E8, Canada. RP Mirza, MMQ, Univ Toronto, Inst Environm Studies, AIRG, 33 Willcocks St, Toronto, ON M5S 3E8, Canada. AB Developing countries are vulnerable to extremes of normal climatic variability, and climate change is likely to increase the frequency and magnitude of some extreme weather events and disasters. Adaptation to climate change is dependent on current adaptive capacity and the development models that are being pursued by developing countries. Various frameworks are available for vulnerability and adaptation (V&A) assessments, and they have both advantages and limitations. Investments in developing countries are more focused on recovery from a disaster than on the creation of adaptive capacity. Extreme climatic events create a spiral of debt burden on developing countries. Increased capacity to manage extreme weather events can reduce the magnitude of economic, social and human damage and eventually, investments, in terms of borrowing money from the lending agencies. Vulnerability to extreme weather events, disaster management and adaptation must be part of long-term sustainable development planning in developing countries. Lending agencies and donors need to reform their investment policies in developing countries to focus more on capacity building instead of just investing in recovery operations and infrastructure development. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *CRED, 2000, CURR PRACT MEAS IMP *GOO, 2000, NAT OUR STAT *IDB, 1999, OP 704 NAT UN DIS *IFRC RCS, 2001, WORLD DIS REP FOC RE *IFRC RCS, 2002, WORLD DIS REP 2002 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 *IPCC, 2001, CLIM CHANG 2001 *MUN REINS, 1999, CLIM CHANG INCR LOSS *OCAA, 1998, REC NAC HOND *SWISS REINS CO, 1998, FLOODS INS RISK *SWISS REINS CO, 2000, NAT CAT MAN MAD DIS *UK MED OFF, 1999, IND CYCL FACT SHEET *UNDP, 1998, STAT GOV EXP TRENDS *UNDP, 2001, EL AD POL FRAM TECHN *UNFCCC, 2002, GUID CLIM CHANG CONV *WORLD BANK, 1999, WORLD BANK DEV IND *WORLD BANK, 2000, WORLD DEV REP 2000 2, P161 *WSWS, 2001, MOZ FLOOD DIS RET AHMED AU, 2000, PERSPECTIVES FLOOD 1, P67 ALBALABERTRAND JM, 1993, POLITICAL EC LARGE N, P259 ANDERSON MB, 1990, 29 WORLD BANK BENIOFF R, 1996, VULNERABILITY ADAPTA BENSON C, 2000, DISASTER RISK MANAGE, V2 BURTON I, 1999, COME HELL HIGH WATER CARTER TR, 1994, IPCC TECHNICAL GUIDE DYSON LL, 2001, S AFR J SCI, V97, P80 FEENSTRA J, 1998, HDB METHODS CLIMATE FREEMAN PK, 2001, ANN BANK C DEV EC EU FREEMAN PK, 2001, INFRASTRUCTURE NATUR KHUDA ZRM, 2000, PERSPECTIVES FLOOD 1, P31 KRINER S, 2000, 3 MONTHS SUPER CYCLO MIRZA MMQ, 2001, ENV HAZARDS, V3, P37 PAGE DL, 2000, FLOODS PREDICTABLE D ROBINSON A, 1999, SUPER CYCLONE EXPOSE SHOOK G, 1997, DISASTERS, V21, P77 SMITHERS JC, 2001, WATER SA, V27, P25 VAZ AC, 2000, INT C MOZ FLOODS MAP WARRICK RA, 2000, J ENV DEV, V7, P43 NR 38 TC 0 J9 CLIM POLICY BP 233 EP 248 PY 2003 PD SEP VL 3 IS 3 GA 734DG UT ISI:000186039500005 ER PT J AU Ivey, JL Smithers, J De Loe, RC Kreutzwiser, RD TI Community capacity for adaptation to climate-induced water shortages: Linking institutional complexity and local actors SO ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article C1 Univ Guelph, Dept Geog, Guelph, ON N1G 2W1, Canada. RP Smithers, J, Univ Guelph, Dept Geog, Guelph, ON N1G 2W1, Canada. AB There is growing concern for the capacity of urban and rural communities to manage current water shortages and to prepare for shortages that may accompany predicted changes in climate. In this paper, concepts relating to the notion of climate adaptation and particularly "capacity building" are used to elucidate several determinants of community-level capacity for water management. These concepts and criteria are then used to interpret empirically derived insights relating to local management of water shortages in Ontario, Canada. General determinants of water-related community capacity relate to upper tier political and institutional arrangements; the characteristics of, and relationships among, pertinent agencies, groups, or individuals involved in water management; and the adequacy of financial, human, information, and technical resources. The case analysis illustrates how general factors play out in local experience. The findings point to geographically specific factors that influence the effectiveness of management. Key factors include collaboration between water managers, clarification of agency roles and responsibilities, integration of water management and land-use planning, and recognition and participation of both urban and rural stakeholders, whose sensitivities to water shortages are spatially and temporally variable. CR *CRED VALL CONS, 1997, UNPUB CAL CREEK CRED *CRED VALL CONS, 1998, UNPUB W CRED SUBW ST *CRED VALL CONS, 1999, UNPUB WAT US WORKSH *INT PAN CLIM CHAN, 2001, CLIM CHANG 2001 SYNT *KPMG LLP CHART AC, 2000, FIN STAT CRED VALL C *ONT MIN ENV, 2001, OP CLEAN WAT MUN GRO *ONT MIN MUN AFF H, 1996, MUN FIN INF 1994 QUE *ONT MIN NAT RES, 2001, ONT LOW WAT RESP *PLANN ENG IN LTD, 1999, UNPUB CAL COMM RES S *REIC CONS LTD, 1998, UNPUB TOWN OR WAT EF *TOWN ORG PUB WORK, 2000, UNPUB 1999 MUN WELL ADGER WN, 1999, WORLD DEV, V27, P249 BISWAS AK, 1996, WATER RESOURCES DEV, V12, P399 BURTON I, 1996, ADAPTING CLIMATE CHA, P55 BURTON I, 1998, HDB METHODS CLIMATE CHANG YM, 2001, CREATING SUSTAINABLE, P176 COHEN JM, 1995, INT REV ADM SCI, V61, P407 DELOE R, 2001, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V11, P231 DELOE RC, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P163 DELOE RC, 2002, ENVIRON MANAGE, V29, P217 ETKIN D, 1998, CANADA COUNTRY STUDY, V8, P31 FURUSETH O, 1995, J ENV PLANNING MANAG, V38, P181 GABRIEL AO, 1993, CANADIAN WATER RESOU, V18, P117 GARGAN JJ, 1981, PUBLIC ADMIN REV, V41, P649 GRIGG NS, 1993, J WATER RES PL-ASCE, V119, P531 GRINDLE MS, 1995, PUBLIC ADMIN DEVELOP, V15, P441 HAMDY A, 1998, WATER INT, V23, P126 HOLMES PR, 1996, WATER RESOURES DEV, V12, P461 JOHNSTON RJ, 2000, DICT HUMAN GEOGRAPHY, P976 KELLY PM, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V47, P325 KRAJNC A, 2000, CAN PUBLIC POL, V26, P111 LAVENDER B, 1998, BINATIONAL GREAK LAK, P99 LORENZONI I, 2000, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V10, P145 MERRY DJ, 1995, WATER RESOURCES DEV, V11, P11 MITCHELL B, 1989, APPL GEOGR, V9, P196 MOLOT L, 2001, LIQUID ASSETS MONITO MORTSCH L, 2000, CANADIAN WATER RESOU, V25, P153 MORTSCH LD, 1996, LIMNOL OCEANOGR, V41, P903 NUTTLE WK, 1993, ADAPTATION CLIMATE C OCONNOR DR, 2002, REPORT WALKERTON I 1, P188 SHANAGHAN PE, 1998, J AM WATER WORKS ASS, V90, P51 SHAW DT, 1992, J AM WATER WORKS ASS, V84, P34 SMIT B, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, P876 SMITH JB, 1996, CLIMATE RES, V6, P193 SMITHERS J, 1997, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V7, P129 STRZEPEK KM, 1998, HDB METHODS CLIMATE SUBAK S, 2000, WATER RESOUR MANAG, V14, P137 TOMAN MA, 1996, ADAPTING CLIMATE CHA, P5 WALKER S, 1995, MODELING MANAGEMENT, P107 WEILAND PS, 1998, PUB ADM Q, V22, P176 WHEATEN E, 1999, MITIGATION ADAPTATIO, V4, P215 WILHITE DA, 1996, NAT HAZARDS, V13, P229 WOO CK, 1992, WATER RESOUR RES, V28, P2591 WOO V, 1982, J AM WATER WORKS ASS, V74, P126 NR 54 TC 0 J9 ENVIRON MANAGE BP 36 EP 47 PY 2004 PD JAN VL 33 IS 1 GA 808OJ UT ISI:000220578100004 ER PT J AU Bryant, CR Smit, B Brklacich, M Johnston, TR Smithers, J Chiotti, QP Singh, B TI Adaptation in Canadian agriculture to climatic variability and change SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 Univ Montreal, Montreal, PQ H3C 3J7, Canada. Univ Guelph, Guelph, ON N1G 2W1, Canada. Carleton Univ, Ottawa, ON K1S 5B6, Canada. Univ Lethbridge, Lethbridge, AB T1K 3M4, Canada. Univ Toronto, Inst Environm Studies, Toronto, ON M5S 3E8, Canada. RP Bryant, CR, Univ Montreal, CP 6128,Succursale Ctr Ville, Montreal, PQ H3C 3J7, Canada. AB The effects of climatic variability and change on Canadian agriculture have become an important research field since the early 1980s. In this paper, we seek to synthesize this research, focusing on agricultural adaptation, a purposeful proactive or reactive response to changes associated with climate, and influenced by many factors. A distinctive feature of methods used in research on adaptation in Canadian agriculture is the focus on the important role of human agency. Many individual farmers perceive they are well adapted to climate, because of their extensive 'technological' tool-kit, giving them confidence in dealing with climatic change. In many regions, little concern is expressed over climatic change, except where there are particular types of climatic vulnerability. Farmers respond to biophysical factors, including climate, as they interact with a complex of human factors. Several of these, notably institutional and political ones, have tended to diminish the farm-level risks stemming from climatic variability and change, but may well increase the long term vulnerability of Canadian agriculture. Notwithstanding the technological and management adaptation measures available to producers, Canadian agriculture remains vulnerable to climatic variability and to climate change. CR *INT PAN CLIM CHAN, 1996, IPCC 2 ASS CLIM CHAN ARTHUR LM, 1988, IMPLICATIONS CLIMATE ARTHUR LM, 1988, P S WORKSH IMP CLIM, P187 ARTHUR LM, 1988, W J AGR EC, V13, P216 ARTHUR LM, 1992, PRAIRIE FORUM, V17, P97 BRKLACICH M, 1990, LAND DEGRAD REHABIL, V1, P291 BRKLACICH M, 1992, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V20, P1 BRKLACICH M, 1995, SPECIAL PUBLICATION, V59, P147 BRKLACICH M, 1997, AGR RESTRUCTURING SU, P351 BRKLACICH M, 1998, CANADA COUNTRY STUDY, V7, P219 BRYANT CR, 1992, AGR CITYS COUNTRYSID, P226 BRYANT CR, 1997, CLIMAT, V14, P81 CARTER TR, 1994, IPCC TECHNICAL GUIDE CHIOTTI QP, 1994, WORKSH HELD BANFF AL CHIOTTI QP, 1997, AGR RESTRUCTURING SU, P167 CHIOTTI QP, 1995, J RURAL STUD, V11, P335 EASTERLING WE, 1992, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V59, P53 ELMAAYAR M, 1997, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V85, P193 GLANTZ MH, 1988, SOC RESPONSES REGION GLANTZ MH, 1991, ENVIRONMENT, V33, P10 GRANJON D, 1999, UNPUB ENQUETES RESUL JOHNSTON T, 1998, IN PRESS J AIR WASTE LIVERMAN DM, 1987, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V11, P267 MARSDEN T, 1993, CONSTRUCTING COUNTRY MILIS PF, 1994, ARCTIC, V47, P115 MORTSCH L, 1996, 1 ATM ENV SERV ENV C, P141 PARRY ML, 1989, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V15, P95 RAYNER S, 1998, HUMAN CHOICE CLIMATE, V3 ROSENBERG NJ, 1993, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V24, P7 ROSENZWEIG C, 1994, NATURE, V367, P133 SAVDIE I, 1991, CAN J PLANT SCI, V71, P21 SINGH B, 1991, AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON, V35, P327 SINGH B, 1996, ATMOS OCEAN, V34, P379 SINGH B, 1998, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V38, P51 SMIT B, 1992, CAN GEOGR, V36, P75 SMIT B, 1993, ADAPTATION CLIMATIC SMIT B, 1993, CANADIAN J REGIONAL, V16, P499 SMIT B, 1994, P WORKSH IMPR RESP A, P29 SMIT B, 1996, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V33, P7 SMIT B, 1999, IN PRESS CLIMATIC CH SMIT B, 1997, CAN GEOGR, V42, P429 SMITHERS J, 1997, AGR RESTRUCTURING SU, P167 SMITHERS J, 1997, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V7, P129 STEWART RB, 1983, AGR CAN RES BRANCH C, P29 VIAU AA, 1992, CANADA CLIMATOLOGICA, V26, P79 WHEATON E, 1990, SRC PUBLICATION WHEATON EE, 1990, CAN J AGR ECON, V38, P695 NR 47 TC 6 J9 CLIMATIC CHANGE BP 181 EP 201 PY 2000 PD APR VL 45 IS 1 GA 323WX UT ISI:000087588900011 ER PT J AU Hall, JW Sayers, PB Walkden, MJA Panzeri, I TI Impacts of climate change on coastal flood risk in England and Wales: 2030-2100 SO PHILOSOPHICAL TRANSACTIONS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY A-MATHEMATICAL PHYSICAL AND ENGINEERING SCIENCES LA English DT Article C1 Univ Newcastle Upon Tyne, Sch Civil Engn & Geosci, Newcastle Upon Tyne NE1 7RU, Tyne & Wear, England. HR Wallingford, Wallingford OX10 8BA, Oxon, England. RP Hall, JW, Univ Newcastle Upon Tyne, Sch Civil Engn & Geosci, Cassie Bldg, Newcastle Upon Tyne NE1 7RU, Tyne & Wear, England. AB Coastal flood risk is a function of the probability of coastal flooding and the consequential damage. Scenarios of potential changes in coastal flood risk due to changes in climate, society and the economy over the twenty-first century have been analysed using a national-scale quantified flood risk analysis methodology. If it is assumed that there will be no adaptation to increasing coastal flood risk, the expected annual damage in England and Wales due to coastal flooding is predicted to increase from the current 0.5 pound billion to between 1.0 pound and 13.5 pound billion, depending on the scenario of climate and socio-economic change. The proportion of national flood risk that is attributable to coastal flooding is projected to increase from roughly 50% to between 60 and 70%. Scenarios of adaptation to increasing risk, by construction of coastal dikes or retreat from coastal floodplains, are analysed. These adaptations are shown to be able to reduce coastal flood risk to between 0.2 pound and MS billion. The capital cost of the associated coastal engineering works is estimated to be between 12 pound and 40 pound billion. Nonstructural measures to reduce risk can make a major contribution to reducing the cost and environmental impact of engineering measures. CR *DTI, 2002, DTI PUB *EUR COMM DIR GEN, EUR 2004 LIV COAST E *HALCR GROUP LTD, NAT APPR ASS RISK FL *IPCC, 2000, SPEC REP EM SCEN SRE *SPRU CSERGE CRU, 1999, SOC EC FUT CLIM IMP *UK CLIM IMP PROGR, 2000, SOC EC SCEN CLIM CHA ARNELL NW, 2004, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V14, P3 BACON S, 1991, INT J CLIMATOL, V11, P545 BACON S, 1993, INT J CLIMATOL, V13, P423 BURGESS K, 2004, P 39 DEFR FLOOD COAS, P14 CARRETERO JC, 1998, B AM METEOROL SOC, V79, P741 DEBERNARD J, 2002, CLIMATE RES, V23, P39 EVANS EP, 2004, FORESIGHT FLOOD COAS EVANS EP, 2004, FORESIGHT FLOOD COAS, V1 GULEV SK, 1999, INT J CLIMATOL, V19, P1091 HALL JW, 2003, P I CIVIL ENG-WATER, V156, P235 HARGREAVES JC, 2002, GLOBAL ATMOS OCEAN S, V8, P41 HOLMAN IP, 2005, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V71, P43 HOLMAN IP, 2005, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V71, P9 HULME M, 1998, 1 UKCIP CLIM RES UN HULME M, 2000, UKCIP02 TYND CTR LANGENBERG H, 1999, CONT SHELF RES, V19, P821 LOWE JA, 2001, CLIM DYNAM, V18, P179 PENNINGROWSELL EC, 2003, BENEFITS FLOOD COAST SUTHERLAND J, 2003, P I CIVIL ENG-WATER, V156, P137 TSIMPLIS MN, 2005, PHILOS T ROY SOC A, V363, P1329 VOORTMAN HG, 2003, P 28 INT C CARD UK J, V2, P2373 VRIJLING JK, 2001, RELIAB ENG SYST SAFE, V74, P337 WOOLF DK, 2002, J GEOPHYS RES OCEANS, V107 NR 29 TC 0 J9 PHIL TRANS ROY SOC A-MATH PHY BP 1027 EP 1049 PY 2006 PD APR 15 VL 364 IS 1841 GA 025PJ UT ISI:000236278700018 ER PT J AU Scanlan, SJ TI Food availability and access in lesser-industrialized societies: A test and interpretation of neo-Malthusian and technoecological theories SO SOCIOLOGICAL FORUM LA English DT Article C1 Univ Memphis, Dept Sociol, Memphis, TN 38152 USA. RP Scanlan, SJ, Univ Memphis, Dept Sociol, Clement Hall 231, Memphis, TN 38152 USA. AB Population pressure and human adaptation to food security demands through technology have been a dominant concern of researchers and policymakers alike in international development. This paper examines neo-Malthusian and technoecological determinants of food security in lesser-industrialized societies between 1970 and 1990 using an OLS regression of food security change. Findings reveal that population pressure and overurbanization concerns are indeed valid for food availability, having negative implications, while adaptive measures such as the application of fertilizer technologies, land-use intensification, infrastructural development, and the internationalization of food markets help balance these negative effects. Interestingly, such technological improvements operate net of increased food availability and economic growth. Thus, Green Revolution technologies and the internationalization of global food systems have confronted population pressure in the developing world. However, findings are less conclusive for food access, indicating that improvement in availability does not necessarily translate into meeting distribution needs, thus challenging the ability of these two theories to comprehensively explain the complexities of food security. Questions therefore remain with regard to future food security concerns. CR *COMM WORLD FOOD S, 1996, ROM DECL WORLD FOOD *INT ROAD TRANSP U, 1976, WORLD TRANSP DAT *INT SOIL REF INF, 1991, WORLD MAP STAT HUM I *UN FAO, 1972, FAO YB 1972 PROD *UN FAO, 1982, FAO YB 1982 PROD *UN FAO, 1992, FAO YB 1992 PROD *UN FAO, 1996, 6 WORLD FOOD SURV *UNDP, 1994, HUM DEV REP 1994 *UNFPA, 1999, FOOD FUT WOM POP FOO *UNICEF, 1998, STAT WORLDS CHILDR 1 *WHO, 1985, EN PROT REQ *WORLD BANK, 1994, WORLD DAT 1994 CD RO *WORLD BANK, 1997, WORLD DEV IND CD ROM *WORLD RES I, 1992, WORLD RES 1992 1993 BABU SC, 1994, FOOD POLICY, V19, P211 BARKIN D, 1990, DISTORTED DEV MEXICO BARKIN D, 1990, FOOD CROPS VS FEED C BERRY RA, 1979, AGRARIAN STRUCTURE P BOLLEN KA, 1985, SOCIOL METHOD RES, V13, P510 BONGAARTS J, 1996, POPUL DEV REV, V22, P483 BOSERUP E, 1965, CONDITIONS AGR GROWT BOSERUP E, 1981, POPULATION TECHNOLOG BRADSHAW YW, 1985, STUD COMP INT DEV, V20, P74 BRADSHAW YW, 1987, AM SOCIOL REV, V52, P224 BRADSHAW YW, 1993, SOC FORCES, V71, P629 BREUSCH TS, 1979, ECONOMETRICA, V47, P1287 BROWN L, 1994, FULL HOUSE REASSESSI BROWN LR, 1991, WORLD WATCH, V4, P32 CHEATHAM M, 1994, SEEKING SECURITY DEV, P229 COHEN JE, 1995, MANY PEOPLE CAN EART CRENSHAW EM, 1993, SOC FORCES, V71, P807 CRENSHAW EM, 1997, AM SOCIOL REV, V62, P974 CRENSHAW EM, 1998, COMMUNICATION CROSBY A, 1986, ECOLOGICAL IMPERIALI DEJANVRY A, 1976, BERKELEY J SOCIOL, V21, P3 DEJANVRY A, 1980, SOCIETY, V17, P36 DEJANVRY A, 1989, J PEASANT STUD, V16, P396 DREZE J, 1989, HUNGER PUBLIC ACTION EHRLICH PR, 1990, POPULATION EXPLOSION EHRLICH PR, 1993, POPUL DEV REV, V19, P1 FINKEL SE, 1995, CAUSAL ANAL PANEL DA FIREBAUGH G, 1994, AM SOCIOL REV, V59, P631 FOSTER P, 1992, WORLD FOOD PROBLEM FRIEDMANN H, 1993, NEW LEFT REV, P29 FRIEDMANN H, 1994, GLOBAL RESTRUCTURING, P258 GEREFFI G, 1992, ANNU REV SOCIOL, V18, P419 GRIFFIN K, 1987, WORLD HUNGER WORLD E HARPER C, 1996, ENV SOC HAWLEY A, 1968, INT ENCYCL SOC SCI, P328 HEILIG GK, 1994, POPUL DEV REV, V20, P831 HOMERDIXON T, 1995, POPUL DEV REV, V21, P587 HOMERDIXON T, 1998, ECOVIOLENCE LINKS EN HOMERDIXON T, 1999, ENV SCARCITY VIOLENC JACKMAN RW, 1980, AM J SOCIOL, V86, P604 JENKINS JC, 2001, UNPUB IMPROVING FOOD JUDGE GG, 1985, THEORY PRACTICE ECON KELLY M, 1992, FOOD POLICY, V17, P443 KUTZNER P, 1991, WORLD HUNGER REFEREN LAPPE FM, 1998, WORLD HUNGER 12 MYTH LAY MG, 1992, WAYS WORLD HIST WORL LIPTON M, 1977, WHY POOR PEOPLE STAY MACRAE J, 1994, WAR HUNGER MAXWELL S, 1996, FOOD POLICY, V21, P155 MCCLENDON MJ, 1994, MULTIPLE REGRESSION MCMICHAEL P, 1994, GLOBAL RESTRUCTURING, P1 MCMICHAEL P, 1996, DEV SOCIAL CHANGE MEADOWS DH, 1992, LIMITS CONFRONTING G MICKLIN M, 1984, SOCIOLOGICAL HUMAN E NOLAN PD, 1985, SOC FORCES, V64, P341 OPHULS W, 1992, ECOLOGY POLITICS SCA QUINN VJ, 1994, FOOD POLICY, V19, P234 REUTLINGER S, 1986, POVERTY HUNGER ISSUE SAHN DE, 1984, METHODS EVALUATION I SCANLAN SJ, 2001, INT STUDIES Q SEN AK, 1981, POVERTY FAMINES ESSA, V1, P1 SEN AK, 1995, POLITICAL EC HUNGER, P50 SIMON JL, 1981, ULTIMATE RESOURCE SIMON JL, 1990, POPULATION MATTERS P SMIL V, 1991, POPUL DEV REV, V17, P569 SMIL V, 1994, POPUL DEV REV, V20, P255 SUMMERS R, 1991, Q J ECON, V106, P327 TWEETEN LG, 1997, PROMOTING 3 WORLD DE TWEETEN LG, 1997, PROMOTING 3 WORLD DE, P225 WATTS MJ, 1983, SILENT VIOLENCE WIMBERLEY DW, 1992, SOC FORCES, V70, P895 NR 85 TC 1 J9 SOCIOL FORUM BP 231 EP 262 PY 2001 PD JUN VL 16 IS 2 GA 467AT UT ISI:000170678900003 ER PT J AU Dessai, S Hulme, M TI Assessing the robustness of adaptation decisions to climate change uncertainties: A case study on water resources management in the East of England SO GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS LA English DT Article C1 Univ E Anglia, Sch Environm Sci, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. Tyndall Ctr Climate Change Res, Norwich, Norfolk, England. RP Dessai, S, Univ E Anglia, Sch Environm Sci, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. AB Projections of future climate change are plagued with uncertainties, causing difficulties for planners taking decisions on adaptation measures. This paper presents an assessment framework that allows the identification of adaptation strategies that are robust (i.e. insensitive) to climate change uncertainties. The framework is applied to a case study of water resources management in the East of England, more specifically to the Anglian Water Services' 25 year Water Resource Plan (WRP). The paper presents a local sensitivity analysis (a 'one-at-a-time' experiment) of the various elements of the modelling framework (e.g., emissions of greenhouse gases, climate sensitivity and global climate models) in order to determine whether or not a decision to adapt to climate change is sensitive to uncertainty in those elements. Water resources are found to be sensitive to uncertainties in regional climate response (from general circulation models and dynamical downscaling), in climate sensitivity and in climate impacts. Aerosol forcing and greenhouse gas emissions uncertainties are also important, whereas uncertainties from ocean mixing and the carbon cycle are not. Despite these large uncertainties, Anglian Water Services' WRP remains robust to the climate change uncertainties sampled because of the adaptation options being considered (e.g. extension of water treatment works), because the climate model used for their planning (HadCM3) predicts drier conditions than other models, and because 'one-at-a-time' experiments do not sample the combination of different extremes in the uncertainty range of parameters. This research raises the question of how much certainty is required in climate change projections to justify investment in adaptation measures, and whether such certainty can be delivered. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *AWS LTD, 2004, WAT RES PLAN *COMM EUR COMM, 2005, WINN BATTL GLOB CLIM *EA, 2001, WAT RES FUT STRAT AN *EA, 2003, WAT RES PLANN GUID V *EA, 2004, MAINT WAT SUPPL ENV *EERA SDRT, 2004, LIV CLIM CHANG E ENG MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 *UKWIR LTD, 2003, 03CL0402 UKWIR LTD ADGER WN, 2005, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V15, P77 ALEXANDER LV, 2001, ATMOSPHERIC SCI LETT, V1 ANDRONOVA NG, 2001, J GEOPHYS RES-ATMOS, V106, P22605 ARNELL NW, 2003, J HYDROL, V270, P195 ARNELL NW, 2004, UNPUB EVIDENCE TYNDA ARNELL NW, 2004, WATER ENVIRON J, V18, P112 ARNELL NW, 2006, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V78, P227 BANKES S, 1993, OPER RES, V41, P435 CALDEIRA K, 2003, SCIENCE, V299, P2052 CAMPOLONGO F, 2000, SENSITIVITY ANAL, P65 CARNELL J, 1999, J CHART INST WATER E, V13, P413 CARTER TR, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, P145 CASMAN EA, 1999, RISK ANAL, V19, P33 DESSAI S, 2005, THESIS U E ANGLIA NO FOREST CE, 2002, SCIENCE, V295, P113 FUNTOWICZ SO, 1990, UNCERTAINTY QUALITY GOODMAN D, 2002, HUM ECOL RISK ASSESS, V8, P177 HELTON JC, 1996, RELIAB ENG SYST SAFE, V54, P91 HELTON JC, 2002, RISK ANAL, V22, P591 HEWITT GD, 2004, EOS, V85, P566 HOBBS BF, 1997, J ENVIRON MANAGE, V49, P53 HOBBS BJ, 1997, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V37, P177 HULME M, 2002, CLIMATE CHANGE SCENA JONES RN, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P403 JONES RN, 2001, INTEGRATING MODELS N JONES RN, 2001, NAT HAZARDS, V23, P197 KAHNEMAN D, 1982, JUDGEMENT UNCERTAINT KNIGHT F, 1922, RISK UNCERTAINTY PRO KNUTTI R, 2002, NATURE, V416, P719 LEMPERT RJ, 1996, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V33, P235 LEMPERT RJ, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P387 LEMPERT RJ, 2003, SHAPING NEXT 100 YEA LEMPERT RJ, 2006, MANAGE SCI, V52, P514 MITCHELL JFB, 1999, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V41, P547 MITCHELL TD, 2003, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V60, P217 MORGAN MG, 1990, UNCERTAINTY GUIDE DE MORITA T, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, P115 MURPHY JM, 2004, NATURE, V430, P768 NAKICENOVIC N, 2000, EMISSIONS SCENARIOS REGAN HM, 2005, ECOL APPL, V15, P1471 RISBEY JS, 1998, WATER POLICY, V1, P321 SANTER BD, 1990, 47 M PLANCK I MET SHERIFF JD, 1996, J CHART INST WATER E, V10, P160 STAINFORTH DA, 2005, NATURE, V433, P405 STEWART TR, 2000, PREDICTION SCI DECIS, P41 VANASSELT MBA, 2000, PERSPECTIVES UNCERTA VANDERSLUIJS JP, 2003, NWSE2003163 CORP I R VANDERSLUIJS JP, 2004, NWSE200437 CORP I RI VANLENTHE J, 1997, RISK DECISION POLICY, V2, P213 VISSER H, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P421 WALKER WE, 2003, INTEGRATED ASSESSMEN, V4, P5 WIGLEY TML, 1992, NATURE, V357, P293 WIGLEY TML, 1995, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V22, P2749 WIGLEY TML, 2001, SCIENCE, V293, P451 WILBY RL, 2005, HYDROL PROCESS, V19, P3201 WINKLER RL, 1996, RELIAB ENG SYST SAFE, V54, P127 YOHE GW, 2004, SCIENCE, V306, P416 YOHE GW, 1991, POLICY SCI, V24, P245 NR 66 TC 0 J9 GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANGE BP 59 EP 72 PY 2007 PD FEB VL 17 IS 1 GA 149YG UT ISI:000245182200008 ER PT J AU Abler, DG Shortle, J Rose, A Oladosu, G TI Characterizing regional economic impacts and responses to climate change SO GLOBAL AND PLANETARY CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 Penn State Univ, University Pk, PA 16802 USA. RP Abler, DG, Penn State Univ, 207 Armsby Bldg, University Pk, PA 16802 USA. AB While much progress has been made in recent years in modeling the impacts of greenhouse gases on global climate and impacts of global climate change on regional climates, much less progress has been made in modeling economic impacts and responses to climate change, particularly at a regional level. This lack of progress is due, in large part, to the fact that there is no generally accepted framework for characterizing the regional economic impacts of, and responses to, climate change. The objective of this paper is to make a start at such a framework. We divide economic impacts at a regional level into four broad categories: direct impacts on production of market goods and services; direct impacts on production of nonmarket goods and services; indirect impacts on other economic sectors within the region; and indirect impacts operating through other regions and countries. We go on to consider two modeling frameworks for responses to climate change: static, in which regional capital stocks, technologies, and public and private institutions are exogenous; and dynamic, in which these variables are endogenous. Dynamic responses in capital stocks, technologies, and institutions are likely to be the most important adaptations to climate change and its effects on ecosystems, but also the least well understood at the present time. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. CR WATSON RT, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, V1, P1 *STANF EN MOD FOR, 1997, EMF 14 WORKSH SYNTH ABLER DG, 1998, AM ASS ADV SCI ANN M BERZ GA, 1998, COST BENEFIT ANAL CL, P41 CHAKRAVORTY U, 1997, J POLIT ECON, V105, P1201 COSTANZA R, 1997, NATURE, V387, P253 CRANE RG, 1998, INT J CLIMATOL, V18, P65 DALTON MG, 1997, J ENVIRON ECON MANAG, V33, P221 EASTERLING WE, 1993, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V24, P23 EASTERLING WE, 1997, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V7, P337 FREEMAN MA, 1993, MEASUREMENT ENV RESO GASKINS D, 1993, REDUCING CARBON EMIS HAYAMI Y, 1985, AGR DEV INT PERSPECT ISARD W, 1975, INTRO REGIONAL SCI JENKINS GS, 1997, GLOBAL PLANET CHANGE, V15, P3 JORGENSON DW, 1993, RESOUR ENERGY ECON, V15, P7 KAMAT R, 1998, IN PRESS ENERGY EC KARSHENAS M, 1995, HDB EC INNOVATION TE, P265 KOLSTAD CD, 1996, J ENVIRON ECON MANAG, V31, P1 LEMPERT RJ, 1996, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V33, P235 LEWANDROWSKI JK, 1993, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V23, P1 METCALFE JS, 1997, EC STRUCTURAL TECHNO, P123 MOE T, 1997, PERSPECTIVES PUBLIC, P455 NORDHAUS WD, 1994, MANAGING GLOBAL COMM NORDHAUS WD, 1996, AM ECON REV, V86, P741 NORTH DC, 1990, I I CHANGE EC PERFOR OLSON M, 1982, RISE DECLINE NATIONS PEARCE D, 1995, HDB ENV EC, P166 POLENSKE K, 1990, US MULTIREGIONAL INP ROSE A, 1993, INTEGRATED IMPACT AS ROSE A, 1996, GLOBAL PLANET CHANGE, V11, P201 RUTTAN VW, 1992, 12 MAC COLL RUTTAN VW, 1997, ECON J, V107, P1520 SCHIMMELPFENNIG D, 1996, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V33, P213 SMITH VK, 1997, INT YB ENV RESOURCE, P156 SOLOW R, 1992, PRACTICAL STEP SUSTA STIGLER GJ, 1988, CHICAGO STUDIES POLI TOL RSJ, 1998, ENERG POLICY, V26, P257 TOL RSJ, 1998, ENVIRON MODEL ASSESS, V3, P63 TOL RSJ, 1998, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V8, P109 TOMAN MA, 1998, ENVIRON RESOUR ECON, V11, P603 TOMAN MA, 1995, HDB ENV EC, P139 ULPH A, 1997, ECON J, V107, P636 WOODWARD RT, 1997, LAND ECON, V73, P492 YOHE GW, 1998, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V38, P447 NR 45 TC 2 J9 GLOBAL PLANET CHANGE BP 67 EP 81 PY 2000 PD JUL VL 25 IS 1-2 GA 336ZU UT ISI:000088333500006 ER PT J AU Montagu, S TI GIS and natural resource planning in Papua New Guinea: a contextual analysis SO ENVIRONMENT AND PLANNING B-PLANNING & DESIGN LA English DT Article C1 Miami Univ, Dept Geog, Oxford, OH 45056 USA. RP Montagu, S, Miami Univ, Dept Geog, Oxford, OH 45056 USA. AB With the maturation of GIS technology, several planning scholars have turned their attention to the nature of the relationship between GIS technology and its 'fit' into the planning process. Drawing various insights from the diverse fields of information systems, management information systems, and organizational theory, these scholars have started to assemble a theoretical framework from which to understand and manage the integration of GIS into the workplace. In this paper I will draw on these initial efforts to evaluate the relationship between 'technology' and 'process' in a Third World context. Using Nedovic-Budic's conceptualization of the process of 'mutual adaptation' as a conceptual starting point, I will provide an in-depth analysis of GIS implementation in the southwest pacific nation of Papua New Guinea (PNG). PNG's experiences offer a unique insight into the dynamics of mutual adaptation and also point out the limitations of this concept. I conclude by extrapolating beyond the 'particular localisms' of PNG to find that the broader political economy of the planning environment dictates the success of GIS integration. Moreover it also suggests that managing the phases of mutual adaptation in an effort to promote GIS implementation is only likely to succeed in circumstances where the broader political economy of planning is in itself conducive to the long-term integration needs of GIS. CR *GREENP PAC, 1998, SUST PAP NEW GUIN NA *PAP NEW GUIN FOR, 1996, NAT FOR PLAN MAY 199 ALANKARY KM, 1991, INT J GEOGR INF SYST, V5, P85 BASHER LR, 1995, HDB LAND RESOURCE SU BELLAMY JA, 1995, 6 PNGRIS AIDAB BROWN MM, 1997, STATE LOCAL GOVERNME, V28, P193 BUDIC ZD, 1993, J URBAN REGIONAL INF, V5, P4 BUDIC ZD, 1994, COMPUT ENVIRON URBAN, V18, P285 BUDIC ZD, 1994, J AM PLANN ASSOC, V60, P244 BURROUGH PA, 1992, NEDERLANDSE GEOGRAFI, V152, P17 CAMPBELL H, 1994, INT J GEOGR INF SYST, V8, P309 CAMPBELL H, 1995, GIS ORG CARTWRIGHT TJ, 1993, DIFFUSION USE GEOGRA, P261 CHRISMAN N, 1997, EXLORING GEOGRAPHIC CHRISTIAN CS, 1968, AERIAL SURVEYS INTEG, P233 COWEN DJ, 1990, INTRO READINGS GEOGR, P52 DEATH C, 1980, MONOGRAPH I APPL SOC, V13 DOWNS I, 1980, AUSTR TRUSTEESHIP PA EYRE LA, 1989, INT J GEOGR INF SYST, V3, P363 FILER C, 1998, POLICY WORKS FORESTS FOX JM, 1991, INT J GEOGR INF SYST, V5, P59 HARRIS B, 1990, REGIONAL DEV DIALOGU, V11, P17 HASTINGS DA, 1991, INT J GEOGR INF SYST, V5, P29 HOLZKNECHT H, 1994, UNPUB INTRO INCORPOR HUXHOLD W, 1993, DIFFUSION USE GEOGRA, P61 INNES JE, 1993, J AM PLANN ASSOC, V59, P230 KEIG G, 1987, HUON SEM LAE PNG SEP KEIG G, 1988, URPIS 16 INF SYST AC, P24 MABBUTT JA, 1968, LAND EVALUATION, P11 MASSER I, 1997, GEOGRAPHIC INFORMATI, P95 MCALPINE JR, 1989, INT S LOW COST LIS S MILLER S, 1994, PAPUA NEW GUINEA COU MONTAGU A, 1995, DP1 PNGRIS AIDAB ACT MONTAGU AS, 1997, THESIS U ILLINOIS UR MOORE GC, 1993, DIFFUSION USE GEOGRA, P77 NEDOVICBUDIC Z, 1997, GEOGRAPHIC INFORMATI, P165 NEDOVICBUDIC Z, 1998, ENVIRON PLANN B, V25, P681 PRINCE JR, 1969, SCI CONCEPTS PACIFIC SIMPSON G, 1997, MONOGRAPH NATL RES I, V32, P17 SWARTZENDRUBER JF, 1994, PAPUA NEW GUINEA CON TAYLOR DRF, 1991, GEOGRAPHIC INFORMATI, V1, P71 WIGGINS LL, 1993, DIFFUSION USE GEOGRA, P147 YEH AG, 1991, INT J GEOGR INF SYST, V5, P5 NR 43 TC 0 J9 ENVIRON PLAN B-PLAN DESIGN BP 183 EP 196 PY 2000 PD MAR VL 27 IS 2 GA 298KZ UT ISI:000086139400004 ER PT J AU Faisal, IM Parveen, S TI Food security in the face of climate change, population growth, and resource constraints: Implications for Bangladesh SO ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article C1 Presidency Univ, Dhaka 1213, Bangladesh. N South Univ, Dhaka 1213, Bangladesh. RP Faisal, IM, Presidency Univ, Tower Bldg 11A,Rd 92,Gulshan 2, Dhaka 1213, Bangladesh. AB Ensuring food security has been one of the major national priorities of Bangladesh since its independence in 1971. Now, this national priority is facing new challenges from the possible impacts of climate change in addition to the already existing threats from rapid population growth, declining availability of cultivable land, and inadequate access to water in the dry season. In this backdrop, this paper has examined the nature and magnitude of these threats for the benchmark years of 2030 and 2050. It has been shown that the overall impact of climate change on the production of food grains in Bangladesh would probably be small in 2030. This is due to the strong positive impact of CO2 fertilization that would compensate for the negative impacts of higher temperature and sea level rise. In 2050, the negative impacts of climate change might become noticeable: production of rice and wheat might drop by 8% and 32%, respectively. However, rice would be less affected by climate change compared to wheat, which is more sensitive to a change in temperature. Based on the population projections and analysis of future agronomic innovations, this study further shows that the availability of cultivable land alone would not be a constraint for achieving food self-sufficiency, provided that the productivity of rice and wheat grows at a rate of 10% or more per decade. However, the situation would be more critical in terms of water availability. If the dry season water availability does not decline from the 1990 level of about 100 Bm(3), there would be just enough water in 2030 for meeting both the agricultural and nonagricultural needs. In 2050, the demand for irrigation water to maintain food self-sufficiency would be about 40% to 50% of the dry season water availability. Meeting such a high agricultural water demand might cause significant negative impacts on the domestic and commercial water supply, fisheries, ecosystems, navigation, and salinity management. CR *BBS, 2001, POP CENS 2001 PREL R *BBS, 2001, STAT YEAR BOOK BANG *BBS, 2001, YB AGR STAT BANGL *BBS, 2002, STAT POCK BOOK BANGL MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 *IUCN, 2002, IMP CLIM VAR AGR SEC *MOA, 2001, HDB AGR STAT *MPO, 1991, NAT WAT MAN PLAN *WARPO, 2001, IN PRESS NAT WAT MAN, V1 *WB, 2000, BANGL CLIM CHANG SUS ACOCK B, 1993, INT CROP SCI, V1, P299 AHMED A, 2002, AGR SECTOR VULNERABI AHMED AU, 1998, VULNERABILITY ADAPTA, P13 ASADUZZAMAN M, 1997, GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANG BOYCE JK, 1987, AGRARIAN IMPASSE BEN BRAMMER H, 1990, GEOGR J, V156, P12 BRAMMER H, 1990, GEOGR J, V156, P158 DOORENBOS J, 1977, 24 FAO DOROSH PA, 2002, C EC REF FOOD SEC RO EMERY KO, 1991, SEA LEVELS LAND LEVE GABLE FJ, 1990, ENVIRON MANAGE, V14, P33 HABIBULLAH M, 1998, VULNERABILITY ADAPTA, P55 KARIM Z, 1982, NET IRRIGATION REQUI KARIM Z, 1996, WATER AIR SOIL POLL, V92, P53 KARIM Z, 1999, VULNERABILITY ADAPTA, P29 KHAN HR, 2003, WATER RESOURCES DEV, P16 MAHMOOD R, 1995, PHYS GEOGR, V16, P463 ROTTER R, 2000, CLIMATE CHANGE EFFEC, P651 SEN AK, 1976, FAMINES FOOD AVABILA SEN AK, 1981, POVERTY FAMINES ESSA, V1, P1 SEN AK, 1987, HUNGER ENTITLEMENTS SEN AK, 1991, INTERDISCIPLINARY SC, V16, P324 TURNER BL, 1996, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V93, P14984 ZISKA LH, 1997, AGRONOMY J NR 34 TC 0 J9 ENVIRON MANAGE BP 487 EP 498 PY 2004 PD OCT VL 34 IS 4 GA 880WR UT ISI:000225821200004 ER PT J AU McGoodwin, JR TI Effects of climatic variability on three fishing economies in high-latitude regions: Implications for fisheries policies SO MARINE POLICY LA English DT Article C1 Univ Colorado, Dept Anthropol, Boulder, CO 80309 USA. RP McGoodwin, JR, Univ Colorado, Dept Anthropol, 233 UCB, Boulder, CO 80309 USA. AB Research exploring how climatic variability impacts fishing economies in high-latitude regions was conducted in south-central Iceland and southwest Alaska during 2001-2004. Important differences were found regarding the economic impacts of climatic variations in the commercial economies in Iceland and Alaska, versus in the native subsistence economies in Alaska. In general, the commercially inclined economies in both regions seemed less resilient to ordinary climatic variability. Moreover, both of the commercial economies were importantly influenced by fluctuations in global fish markets that are prompted by climatic variations occurring in regions that are geographically very distant from them. A better understanding of how climatic variability affects fishing economies in high-latitude regions will help in the development of more sustainable fisheries policies for these regions, which may already be experiencing radical climatic and ecological change. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR 2001, GLOBAL WARMING NEWS 2004, IMPACTS WARMING ARCT *NAT RES COUNC, 2001, CLIM CHANG SCI AN SO ARNASON R, 1995, N ATLANTIC FISHERIES, P237 BARKER JH, 1993, ALWAYS GETTING READY BELKIN IM, 1998, PROG OCEANOGR, V41, P1 DICKSON RR, 1988, PROGR OCEANOGR, V20, P103 DURRENBERGER EP, 1989, ANTHRO ICELAND FIENUPRIORDAN A, 2000, HUNTING TRADITION CH HAMILTON LC, 2004, ARCTIC, V57, P325 HOUGHTON JT, 2001, IPCC 3 ASSESSMENT RE JOLLES CZ, 2002, FAITH FOOD FAMILY YU JONSSON S, 1995, N ATLANTIC FISHERIES, P267 JOSEPH DS, 1997, BEND KAWAGLEY AO, 1995, YUPIAQ WORLDVIEW PAT MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 MCGOODWIN JR, 1990, CRISIS WORLDS FISHER MEAD R, 2001, ICELAND METZ B, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 PALSSON G, 1991, COASTAL EC CULTURAL PALSSON G, 1995, ECOLOGICAL EC, V24, P275 PALSSON G, 1998, ECOL ECON, V24, P275 SERVICE ER, 1971, PRIMITIVE SOCIAL ORG VANSTONE JW, 1984, HDB N AM INDIANS, V5, P205 VANSTONE JW, 1984, HDB N AM INDIANS, V5, P224 NR 25 TC 0 J9 MAR POLICY BP 40 EP 55 PY 2007 PD JAN VL 31 IS 1 GA 095KN UT ISI:000241306700005 ER PT J AU MUNN, RE TI TOWARDS SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT (REPRINTED FROM PROC SYMP MANAGING ENVIRONMENTAL-STRESS, PG 11-19, 1990) SO ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT PART A-GENERAL TOPICS LA English DT Reprint RP MUNN, RE, UNIV TORONTO,INST ENVIRONM STUDIES,TORONTO M5S 1A4,ONTARIO,CANADA. AB Sustainable development is a difficult phrase to define, particularly in the context of human ecosystems. Questions have to be asked, such as "Sustainable for whom?" "Sustainable for what purposes?" "Sustainable at the subsistence or at the luxury level?" and "Sustainable under what conditions?" In this paper, development is taken to mean improving the quality of life. (If development were to mean growth, then it could not be sustained over the long term.) Studies of development must, of course, consider economic factors, particularly in the case of societies who suffer from the pollution of poverty. However, cultural and environmental factors are equally important. In fact, development is not sustainable over the long term if it is not ecologically sustainable. The terms maximum sustainable yield of a renewable resource, carrying capacity of a region and assimilative capacity of a watershed or airshed are discussed. Approaches using these resource management tools are recommended when external conditions are not changing very much. The problem today is that unprecedented rates of change are expected in the next century, not only of environmental conditions such as climate but also of socioeconomic conditions such as renewable resource consumption and populations (of both people and of automobiles)! In rapidly changing situations, policies must be adopted that strengthen resilience and ecosystem integrity; that is, society must increase its ability to adapt. Maintaining the status quo is a long-term prescription for disaster. The problem is of course that little is known about how to design strategies that will increase resilience and ecosystem integrity, and this area of research needs to be strengthened. Some suggestions on appropriate indicators of ecosystem integrity are given in the paper but these need considerable refinement. One of the main problems with long-term environmental policy formulation is the uncertainty to be expected, including the possibility that complete surprises will occur, as the time horizon moves forward. Research programmes will of course reduce the uncertainty but will never eliminate it. There is therefore an urgent need to improve current methods of environmental policy formulation, which avoid foreclosing of options and permit continuous review and adaptation of policies. The Canadian round-table approach is mentioned, as well as the policy-exercise approach developed at IIASA (the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis). CR 1980, WORLD CONSERVATION S 1987, OUR COMMON FUTURE 1989, SUSTAINABLE DEV, V10, P1 1990, IGBP12 SWED ACAD SCI ARCHIBUGI F, 1989, EC ECOLOGY SUSTAINAB CARSON R, 1987, SILENT SPRING CHRISTIE WJ, 1990, UNPUB PERSPECTIVE AP CLARK WC, 1985, WP8543 INT I APPL SY CLARK WC, 1986, SUSTAINABLE DEV BIOS COULTER J, 1989, 4 EC C AUSTR COULTER J, 1989, EC GROWTH ENV SUSTAI FRIEND A, 1990, UNPUB EVOLUTION INFO HOLLING CS, 1973, ANNUAL REV ECOLOGY S, V4, P1 HOLLING CS, 1986, SUSTAINABLE DEV BIOS, V1, P1 KEYFITZ N, 1989, WP8927 INT I APPL SY MUNN RE, 1990, P S MANAGING ENV STR, P11 MUNN RE, 1991, P C SUSTAINABLE POLI, V108, P163 MUNN RE, 1992, P WORKSHOP ECOLOGICA ODEN S, 1968, ECOLOGY COMMITTEE B, V1 PEARCE D, 1989, BLUEPRINT GREEN EC PEARCE E, 1989, NEW STATESMAN SOC, V2, P17 PEZZEY J, 1989, 15 WORLD BANK ENV DE RAPPORT DJ, 1989, PERSPECT BIOL MED, V33, P120 REGIER HA, 1989, UNPUB AUG COUCH C REPETTO R, 1989, WASTING ASSETS NATUR RIND D, 1988, NATURE, V334, P483 STIGLIANI WM, 1989, SCI TOTAL ENVIRON, V80, P1 TOTH FL, 1988, SIMULATION GAMES, V19, P235 VICTOR PA, 1991, EC ECOLOGICAL DECISI WARD B, 1972, ONLY ONE EARTH NR 30 TC 4 J9 ATMOS ENVIRON PT A-GEN TOP BP 2725 EP 2731 PY 1992 PD OCT VL 26 IS 15 GA JT894 UT ISI:A1992JT89400007 ER PT J AU Sivakumar, MVK Gommes, R Baier, W TI Agrometeorology and sustainable agriculture SO AGRICULTURAL AND FOREST METEOROLOGY LA English DT Article C1 World Meteorol Org, CH-1211 Geneva 2, Switzerland. Agr & Agri Food Canada, Res Branch, Ottawa, ON K1A 0C6, Canada. RP Sivakumar, MVK, World Meteorol Org, 7bis Ave Paix, CH-1211 Geneva 2, Switzerland. AB Current concerns with the sustainability of agroecosystems in different parts of the world have hightened the awareness for careful use of the natural resource base on which agriculture depends. For proper and efficient use of soils and plant/animal genetic material, knowledge of the role of climate is an essential precondition. Several elements of the chapters in Agenda 21, a global plan of action agreed at the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development (UNCED), require the attention of the agrometeorologists and these have been reviewed. Three International Conventions which have a bearing on sustainable agriculture including the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCC), the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) and the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) were negotiated and ratified since 1992. The World Food Summit Plan of Action (WFSPA), which was developed in 1996, includes several commitments to make agricultural production sustainable. Agrometeorological aspects of these three Conventions and the WFSPA were reviewed. Some of the priorities for agrometeorologists to address sustainable agriculture in the 21st Century were discussed. These include improvement and strengthening of agrometeorological networks, development of new sources of data for operational agrometeorology, improved understanding of natural climate variability, promotion and use of seasonal to inter-annual climate forecasts, establishment and/or strengthening of early warning and monitoring systems and promotion of geographical information systems and remote sensing applications and agroecological zoning for sustainable management of farming systems, forestry and livestock. Other priorities include use of improved methods, procedures and techniques for the dissemination of agrometeorological information, development of agrometeorological adaptation strategies to climate variability and climate change, mitigation of the effects of climate change, more active applications of models for phenology, yield forecasting etc.,active promotion of tactical applications such as response farming at the field level and promoting a better understanding of the interactions between climate and biological diversity. These present important challenges and great opportunities for agrometeorologists to play a proactive role in promoting sustainable development in the 21st Century. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. CR *ASA, 1989, DEC REACH SUST AGR, P15 *BIFAD, 1988, ENV NAT RES STRAT SU *CGIAR TAC, 1988, SUST AGR PROD IMPL I *NRC, 1991, SUST PLAN COLL RES A *ROM FOR, 1986, SUST FOOD NUTR SEC R *WCED, 1987, OUR COMM FUT *WCMC, 1992, GLOB BIOD STAT WORLD BAIER W, 1990, P INT S NAT RES MAN, P90 BERNARD EA, 1992, INTENSIFICATION PROD BOOTE KJ, 1996, AGRON J, V88, P704 CONWAY GR, 1985, AGROECOSYSTEM ANAL A, V20, P1 DAVIS TJ, 1987, P 7 AGR SECT S WORLD DOVER M, 1987, FEED EARTH AGRO ECOL FRANCIS CA, 1988, AM J ALTERNATIVE AGR, V3, P123 FRANCIS CA, 1990, J SUSTAIN AGR, V1, P97 GOMMES R, 1998, MID TERM M CONS GROU KNEZEK BD, 1988, NATL FORUM, V68, P10 LAL R, 1991, J SUSTAIN AGR, V1, P67 LASERRE P, 1992, IUBS MONOGRAPH, V8, P105 LYNAM JK, 1988, CIP ROCK FDN C FARM MACDONALD IAW, 1992, IUBS MONOGRAPH, V8, P196 MCCRACKEN JA, 1990, GATEKEEPER SERIES SA, V6 OKIGBO BN, 1991, DEV SUSTAINABLE AGR RIEBSAME WE, 1995, CLIMATE CHANGES INT, P57 RIJKS D, 1991, INT SCI FDN CTR TECH RODALE R, 1988, NATL FORUM, V68, P2 RUTTAN VW, 1989, SUSTAINABILITY NOT E, P6 SENANAYAKE R, 1991, J SUSTAIN AGR, V1, P7 SOLBRIG OT, 1992, IUBS MONOGRAPH, V8 SOLBRIG OT, 1992, IUBS MONOGRAPH, V8, P13 SOMBROEK WG, 1996, GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANG, P1 STEWART BA, 1989, WORKSH MECH PROD SUS SWINDALE LD, 1988, AGR DEV ENV POINT VI, P7 THOMAS GW, 1988, CHALLENGES DRYLAND A, P27 TILMAN D, 1997, SCIENCE, V278, P1865 NR 35 TC 4 J9 AGR FOREST METEOROL BP 11 EP 26 PY 2000 PD JUN 1 VL 103 IS 1-2 GA 322VP UT ISI:000087530200004 ER PT B AU Watson, RT Zinyoera, MC Moss, RH TI Climate Change 1995: Impacts, Adaptations, and Mitigation of Climate Change: scientific-technical analyses SO LA English DT Book C1 Office of Science and Technology Policy, Executive Office of the President Zimbabwe Meteorological Services National Laboratory, Battelle Pacific Northwest RP AB This comprehensive volume provides a roadmap for navigating the sometimes divisive public debate about the consequences of climate change. It reviews what is known, unknown, uncertain and controversial about the potential impacts of climate change and finds that: the composition and geographic distribution of many ecosystems will shift; some regions, especially in the tropics and subtropics, may suffer significantly adverse consequences for food security, even though the effects of climate change on global food production may prove small to moderate; there could be an increase in a wide range of human diseases, including mortality, and illnes due to heat waves and extreme weather events, extensions in the potential transmission of vector-borne diseases, such as malaria, and regional declines in nutritional status; some countries will face threats to sustainable development from losses of human habitat due to sea-level rise, reductions in water quality and quantity, and disruptions from extreme events; technological advances have increased the range of adaptation and mitigation options, and offer exciting opportunities for reducing emissions, but are not currently available in all regions of the world. CR DOWNING TE, 1992, CLIMATE CHANGE VULNE EASTERLING WE, 1993, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V24, P23 NR 2 TC 0 BP 1 EP 878 PY 1996 VL 1 ER PT J AU Osborn, AJ TI Cattle, co-wives, children, and calabashes: Material context for symbol use among the Il Chamus of west-central Kenya SO JOURNAL OF ANTHROPOLOGICAL ARCHAEOLOGY LA English DT Review RP Osborn, AJ, UNIV NEBRASKA,DEPT ANTHROPOL,LINCOLN,NE 68588. 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1981, HUNTER GATHERER FORA WOBST HM, 1977, 61 U MICH MUS ANTHR YAGIL R, 1988, ARID LANDS TODAY TOM, P373 YENGOYAN AA, 1968, MAN HUNTER, P185 YENGOYAN AA, 1972, OCEANIA, V43, P85 YENGOYAN AA, 1975, AUSTR ABORIGINAL ANT, P70 ZIMAN J, 1978, RELIABLE KNOWLEDGE E NR 130 TC 0 J9 J ANTHROPOL ARCHAEOL BP 107 EP 136 PY 1996 PD JUN VL 15 IS 2 GA UR616 UT ISI:A1996UR61600001 ER PT J AU Janssen, MA Schoon, ML Ke, WM Borner, K TI Scholarly networks on resilience, vulnerability and adaptation within the human dimensions of global environmental change SO GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS LA English DT Article C1 Arizona State Univ, Sch Human Evolut & Social Change, Tempe, AZ 85287 USA. Arizona State Univ, Dept Comp Sci & Engn, Tempe, AZ 85287 USA. Indiana Univ, Workshop Polit Theory & Policy Anal, Bloomington, IN 47405 USA. Indiana Univ, Sch Publ & Environm Affairs, Bloomington, IN 47405 USA. Indiana Univ, Sch Lib & Environm Sci, Bloomington, IN 47405 USA. RP Janssen, MA, Arizona State Univ, Sch Human Evolut & Social Change, Box 872402, Tempe, AZ 85287 USA. AB This paper presents the results of a bibliometric analysis of the knowledge domains resilience, vulnerability and adaptation within the research activities on human dimensions of global environmental change. We analyzed how 2286 publications between 1967 and 2005 are related in terms of co-authorship relations, and citation relations. The number of publications in the three knowledge domains increased rapidly between 1995 and 2005. However, the resilience knowledge domain is only weakly connected with the other two domains in terms of co-authorships and citations. The resilience knowledge domain has a background in ecology and mathematics with a focus on theoretical models, while the vulnerability and adaptation knowledge domains have a background in geography and natural hazards research with a focus on case studies and climate change research. There is an increasing number of cross citations and papers classified in multiple knowledge domains. This seems to indicate an increasing integration of the different knowledge domains. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 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RP Iyer-Raniga, U, Deakin Univ, Sch Architecture & Bldg, Waterfront Campus, Geelong, Vic 3217, Australia. AB The relevant literature is abound with different definitions for sustainability, but the most meaningful definition is set within an evolutionary framework. Mechanistic and evolutionary frameworks for sustainable development are discussed. Evolution and adaptation are characteristics of complex adaptive systems, and a new understanding of sustainable development can be gleaned by using the complex adaptive systems framework. This approach to sustainable development issues implicitly requires proactive involvement by the public. This paper supports that bottom-up participation needs to be nurtured. Appropriate processes to enable participation need to be designed and implemented. 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RP Wilbanks, TJ, Oak Ridge Natl Lab, Div Environm Sci, Oak Ridge, TN 37831 USA. AB This paper reports on investigations of two propositions. First, it is easy to overestimate the importance of climate change in the larger picture of sustainable development while at the same time underestimating the potential for climate change concerns to be a catalyst for progress toward sustainable development. Second, these imbalances in perceptions are more likely to be addressed effectively at a local scale than at a global or national scale. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *AAG, 2003, GLOB CHANG LOC PLAC *HADL CTR, 2000, REG CLIM SIM *IPCC, 1994, TECHN GUID ASS CLIM MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 *NACC, 2000, CLIM CHANG IMP US PO *NAS, 1999, OUR COMM JOURN TRANS *ORNL CUSAT, 2003, POSS VULN COCH IND C *UNDP, IN PRESS AD POL FRAM CAPISTRANO D, 2003, CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK, P107 CLARK WC, 2000, 20012 HARV U KENN SC DOWNING TE, 2000, CLIMATE CHANGE VULNE JODHA NS, 1989, GREEN HOUSE WARMING JODHA NS, 1992, REGIONS GLOBAL WARMI KATES RW, 2001, SCIENCE, V292, P641 MANABE S, 1994, J CLIMATE, V7, P5 PARSON EA, 2003, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V57, P9 WILBANKS TJ, 1994, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V84, P541 WILBANKS TJ, 1999, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V43, P601 WILBANKS TJ, 2003, ENVIRONMENT, V45, P28 WILBANKS TJ, 2003, SCALING ISSUES INTEG, P5 NR 20 TC 0 J9 CLIM POLICY BP S147 EP S154 PY 2003 VL 3 GA 761BN UT ISI:000187879500011 ER PT J AU Pretty, JN Ball, AS Li, XY Ravindranath, NH TI The role of sustainable agriculture and renewable-resource management in reducing greenhouse-gas emissions and increasing sinks in China and India SO PHILOSOPHICAL TRANSACTIONS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY OF LONDON SERIES A-MATHEMATICAL PHYSICAL AND ENGINEERING SCIENCES LA English DT Article C1 Univ Essex, Ctr Environm & Soc, Colchester CO4 3SQ, Essex, England. Univ Essex, Dept Biol Sci, Colchester CO4 3SQ, Essex, England. China Agr Univ, Coll Rural Dev, Beijing 100094, Peoples R China. Indian Inst Sci, Ctr Ecol Sci, Bangalore 560012, Karnataka, India. RP Pretty, JN, Univ Essex, Ctr Environm & Soc, Wivenhoe Pk, Colchester CO4 3SQ, Essex, England. AB This paper contains an analysis of the technical options in agriculture for reducing greenhouse-gas emissions and increasing sinks, arising from three distinct mechanisms: (i) increasing carbon sinks in soil organic matter and above-ground biomass; (ii) avoiding carbon emissions from farms by reducing direct and indirect energy use; and (iii) increasing renewable-energy production from biomass that either substitutes for consumption of fossil fuels or replaces inefficient burning of fuelwood or crop residues, and so avoids carbon emissions, together with use of biogas digesters and improved cookstoves. We then review best-practice sustainable agriculture and renewable-resource-management projects and initiatives in China and India, and analyse the annual net sinks being created by these projects, and the potential market value of the carbon sequestered. We conclude with a summary of the policy and institutional conditions and reforms required for adoption of best sustainability practice in the agricultural sector to achieve the desired reductions in emissions and increases in sinks. A review of 40 sustainable agriculture and renewable-resource-management projects in China and India under the three mechanisms estimated a carbon mitigation potential of 64.8 MtC yr(-1) from 5.5 Mha. The potential income for carbon mitigation is $324 million at $5 per tonne of carbon. The potential exists to increase this by orders of magnitude, and so contribute significantly to greenhouse-gas abatement. Most agricultural mitigation options also provide several ancillary benefits. However, there are many technical, financial, policy, legal and institutional barriers to overcome. 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RP Walford, N, Kingston Univ, Sch Earth Sci & Geog, Penrhyn Rd, Kingston upon Thames KT1 2EE, Surrey, England. AB The 1992 reform of the European Union's Common Agricultural Policy included an 'Accompanying Measure' that sought to coordinate the agri-environmental programmes of member states alongside initially voluntary and later compulsory set-aside measures designed to restrain agricultural production. These reforms have been seen as signalling a transition from a productivist to post-productivist philosophy in agricultural policy, although survey evidence is less than conclusive that this change of direction has permeated through the industry at the grassroots level. This paper reports on results from a farmer survey that shows contrasting responses according to whether policy measures are compulsory or voluntary. Commercial farmers are more willing to volunteer participation in optional agri-environmental schemes, where they feel they have greater control over its effects on farming operations but respond by adapting their implementation of compulsory set-aside to suit their own agricultural production purposes. Such a response casts considerable doubt over whether large-scale commercial farmers can be regarded as having made a transition to post-productivism. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. 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Univ Calif San Diego, Sci Studies Program, La Jolla, CA 92093 USA. RP Oreskes, N, Univ Calif San Diego, Dept Hist, La Jolla, CA 92093 USA. CR *AM GEOPH UN, 2003, EOS, V84, P574 *AM MET SOC, 2003, B AM METEOROL SOC, V84, P508 *NAT AC SCI COMM S, 2001, CLIM CHANG SCI AN SO MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 REVKIN AC, 2003, NY TIMES 0619, A1 VANDENHOVE S, 2003, CLIM POLICY, V2, P3 NR 6 TC 1 J9 SCIENCE BP 1686 EP 1686 PY 2004 PD DEC 3 VL 306 IS 5702 GA 878FA UT ISI:000225630800026 ER PT J AU Guill, S TI Vulnerability and adaptation of African ecosystems to global climate change - Foreword SO CLIMATE RESEARCH LA English DT Editorial Material RP Guill, S, CSMT,US COUNTRY STUDIES PROGRAM,PO 63,1000 INDEPENDENCE AVE SW,WASHINGTON,DC 20585. NR 0 TC 0 J9 CLIMATE RES BP U4 EP U4 PY 1996 PD FEB 19 VL 6 IS 2 GA UD549 UT ISI:A1996UD54900001 ER PT J AU Poirot, C TI How can institutional economics be an evolutionary science? SO JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC ISSUES LA English DT Article C1 Shawnee State Univ, Portsmouth, OH USA. RP Poirot, C, Shawnee State Univ, Portsmouth, OH USA. 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RP El Raey, M, Univ Alexandria, Inst Grad Studies & Res, Alexandria, Egypt. AB Assessment of the vulnerability of and expected socioeconomic losses over the Nile Delta coast due to the impact of sea level rise (SLR) was carried out in detail. Impacts of SLR on the Governorates of Alexandria and Port Said, in particular, were evaluated quantitatively. Options and costs of adaptation were analyzed and presented. Multi-criteria and decision matrix approaches based on questionnaire surveys were carried out to identify priorities in the 2 case studies. Results indicate that there are very limited possibilities of changing jobs for vulnerable stakeholders; cost is the main barrier of implementation; the majority of stakeholders recommend protection actions; and beach nourishment with limited hard structures (groins and breakwaters) is the best immediate option for adaptation, while the ICZM approach is the best available strategic option. CR *DELFT HYDR, 1991, IMPL REL SLR DEV LOW *IDSC, 1995, INF DESCR EG *TETR, 1986, SHOR PROT MAST PLAN CARTER TR, 1994, IPCC TECHNICAL GUIDE ELRAEY M, 1995, J COASTAL RES, V14, P190 ELRAEY M, 1997, ENVIRON MONIT ASSESS, V47, P59 ELRAEY M, 1998, ENVIRON MONIT ASSESS, V56, P113 ELRAEY M, 1999, IN PRESS INT J REMOT FANOS AM, 1995, J COASTAL RES, V11, P516 FRIHY OE, 1996, OCEAN COAST MANAGE, V30, P281 IBRAHIM MA, 1997, AQUACULTURE RELATION SESTINI G, 1989, 214 WG UNEP OCA SMITH AE, 1994, R2611A DEC FOC INC SMITH JB, 1997, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V7, P251 STANLEY DJ, 1993, SCIENCE, V260, P628 NR 15 TC 0 J9 CLIMATE RES BP 117 EP 128 PY 1999 PD AUG 27 VL 12 IS 2-3 GA V3096 UT ISI:000171723000009 ER PT J AU Jones, RN TI An environmental risk assessment/management framework for climate change impact assessments SO NATURAL HAZARDS LA English DT Article C1 CSIRO, Div Atmospher Res, Aspendale, Vic 3195, Australia. RP Jones, RN, CSIRO, Div Atmospher Res, Aspendale, Vic 3195, Australia. AB This paper presents an environmental risk assessment/risk management framework to assess the impacts of climate change on individual exposure units identified as potentially vulnerable to climate change. This framework is designed specifically to manage the systematic uncertainties that accompany the propagation of climate change scenarios through a sequence of biophysical and socio-economic climate impacts. Risk analysis methods consistent with the IPCC Technical Guidelines for Assessing Climate Change Impacts and Adaptations are set within a larger framework that involves stakeholders in the identification, assessment and implementation of adaptation measures. Extensive consultation between parties occurs in a flexible structure that embeds scientific methods of risk analysis within a broad setting of social decision-making. This format is consistent with recent forms of environmental risk assessment/management frameworks. The risk analysis links key climatic variables expressed as projected ranges of climate change with an upper and lower limit, with impact thresholds identified collaboratively by researchers and stakeholders. The conditional probabilities of exceeding these thresholds are then assessed (probabilities using this method are conditional as the full range of uncertainty for the various drivers of climate change, and their probability distributions, remains unknown). An example based on exceeding irrigation demand limited by an annual farm cap is used to show how conditional probabilities for the exceedance of a critical threshold can be used to assess the need for adaptation. The time between the identification of an acceptable level of risk and its exceedance is identified as a window of adaptation. The treatment of risk consists of two complementary actions, adaptation to anticipated changes in climate and the mitigation of climate change through reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. Both of these actions will reduce the risk of critical thresholds being exceeded. The potential of this framework for addressing specific requirements of the United Nations Framework Convention for Climate Change is discussed. 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Univ Nebraska, Natl Drought Mitigat Ctr, Lincoln, NE 68583 USA. RP Wilhelmi, OV, Natl Ctr Atmospher Res, Adv Study Program, POB 3000, Boulder, CO 80307 USA. AB Recent drought events in the United States and the magnitude of drought losses indicate the continuing vulnerability of the country to drought. Until recently, drought management in many states, including Nebraska, has been largely response oriented with little or no attention to mitigation and preparedness. In 1998, Nebraska began to revise its drought plan in order to place more emphasis on mitigation. One of the main aspects of drought mitigation and planning is the assessment of who and what is vulnerable and why. This paper presents a method for spatial, Geographic Information Systems-based assessment of agricultural drought vulnerability in Nebraska. It was hypothesized that the key biophysical and social factors that define agricultural drought vulnerability were climate, soils, land use, and access to irrigation. The framework for derivation of an agricultural drought vulnerability map was created through development of a numerical weighting scheme to evaluate the drought potential of the classes within each factor. The results indicate that the most vulnerable areas to agricultural drought were non-irrigated cropland and rangeland on sandy soils, located in areas with a very high probability of seasonal crop moisture deficiency. The identification of drought vulnerability is an essential step in addressing the issue of drought vulnerability in the state and can lead to mitigation-oriented drought management. 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CSIR, ZA-7599 Stellenbosch, South Africa. Univ Pretoria, Ctr Environm Studies, ZA-0002 Pretoria, South Africa. RP Bohensky, EL, Univ Stellenbosch, Dept Bot & Zool, Biocomplex Res Grp, Ctr Invas Biol, Private Bag X1, ZA-7602 Stellenbosch, South Africa. AB Scenario planning is a promising tool for dealing with uncertainty, but it has been underutilized in ecology and conservation. The use of scenarios to explore ecological dynamics of alternative futures has been given a major boost by the recently completed Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, a 4-year initiative to investigate relationships between ecosystem services and human well-being at multiple scales. Scenarios, as descriptive narratives of pathways to the future, are a mechanism for improving the understanding and management of ecological and social processes by scientists and decision makers with greater flexibility than conventional techniques could afford. We used scenarios in one of the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment's subglobal components to explore four possible futures in a Southern African river basin. Because of its ability to capture spatial and temporal dynamics, the scenario exercise revealed key trade-offs in ecosystem services in space and time and the importance of a multiple-scale scenario design. At subglobal scales, scenarios are a powerful vehicle for communication and engagement of decision makers, especially when designed to identify responses to specific problems. Scenario planning has the potential to be a critical ingredient in conservation as calls are increasingly made for the field to help define and achieve sustainable visions for the future. 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RP Burke, BE, Washington State Univ, Dept Sociol, Pullman, WA 99164 USA. AB With perhaps controversial implications for theory and practice, this paper suggests that the validity of Hardinian theories of tire commons are dependent on the implicit rational choice assumption that resource users are aware of resource degradation. Without an awareness of the collective costs of resource rise, there can be no dilemma between pursuing individual benefits and avoiding collective ruin. In such situations, the dilemma of the commons cannot be validly, said to be tire cause of resource depletion, and many traditional policy options to address common resource depletion may not be effective. Two reasons for the lack of awareness about resource degradation are (1) fatalistic beliefs that humans cannot harm a resource base, and (2) the growing complexity and abstraction of modern environmental problems that have obscured the collective costs of resource use from our individual and societal awareness. 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Univ Reading, Dept Meteorol, Hadley Ctr, Reading Unit, Reading RG6 6BB, Berks, England. RP Nicholls, RJ, Univ Southampton, Sch Civil Engn & Environm, Univ Rd,Highfield, Southampton SO17 1BJ, Hants, England. AB This paper considers the possible benefits of mitigation of climate change for coastal areas with a strong emphasis on sea-level rise as this is one of the most certain consequences of human-induced global warming. There is a long-term 'commitment to sea-level rise' due to the long thermal lags of the ocean system and hence the response of sea-level rise to mitigation is slower than for other climate factors. Therefore, while climate stabilisation reduces coastal impacts during the 21st century, compared to unmitigated emissions, the largest benefits may occur in the 22nd century (and beyond). The results of the analysis suggest that a mixture of adaptation and mitigation policies need to be considered for coastal areas, as this will provide a more robust response to human-induced climate change than either policy in isolation. This requires the joint evaluation of mitigation and adaptation in coastal areas, ideally using a probabilistic risk-based methodology, which would be a departure from existing analyses. Because of the long time constants involved such assessments need to continue beyond 2100 to provide the full implications of the different policy choices. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 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Murdoch Univ, Sch Environm Sci, Murdoch, WA 6150, Australia. Univ Victoria, Sch Environm Studies, Victoria, BC V8W 2Y2, Canada. CNRS, UMR 5175, Restorat Ecol Grp, CEFE, F-34293 Montpellier, France. RP Harris, JA, Cranfield Univ, Bedford MK45 4DT, England. AB There is an increasing consensus that global climate change occurs and that potential changes in climate are likely to have important regional consequences for biota and ecosystems. Ecological restoration, including (re)afforestation and rehabilitation of degraded land, is included in the array of potential human responses to climate change. However, the implications of climate change for the broader practice of ecological restoration must be considered. In particular, the usefulness of historical eco-system conditions as targets and references must be set against the likelihood that restoring these historic ecosystems is unlikely to be easy, or even possible, in the changed biophysical conditions of the future. We suggest that more consideration and debate needs to be directed at the implications of climate change for restoration practice. 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Texas A&M Univ, Dept Agr Econ, College Stn, TX 77843 USA. RP Schneider, UA, Univ Hamburg, Res Unit Sustainabil & Global Change, Ctr Marine & Climate Res, Bundesstr 55, D-20146 Hamburg, Germany. AB There is interest in society in general and in the agricultural and forestry sectors concerning a land-based role in greenhouse gas mitigation reduction. Numerous studies have estimated the potential supply schedules at which agriculture and forestry could produce greenhouse gas offsets. However, such studies vary widely in critical assumptions regarding economic market adjustments, allowed scope of mitigation alternatives, and region of focus. Here, we examine the effects of using different assumptions on the total emission mitigation supply curve from agriculture and forestry in the United States. To do this we employ the U.S.-based Agricultural Sector and Mitigation of Greenhouse Gas Model and find that variations in such factors can have profound effects on the results. Differences between commonly employed methods shift economic mitigation potentials from -55 to + 85%. The bias is stronger at higher carbon prices due to afforestation and energy crop plantations that reduce supply of traditional commodities. Lower carbon prices promote management changes with smaller impacts on commodity supply. 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Univ E Anglia, Sch Environm Sci, Climat Res Unit, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. Natl Ctr Atmospher Res, Environm & Societal Impacts Grp, Boulder, CO 80307 USA. Minist Mines Environm & Tourism, Climate Change Off, Harare, Zimbabwe. Univ Oxford, Sch Geog, Oxford OX1 3TB, England. RP Hulme, M, Univ E Anglia, Sch Environm Sci, Tyndall Ctr Climate Change Res, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. AB This paper reviews observed (1900-2000) and possible future (2000-2100) continent-wide changes in temperature and rainfall for Africa. For the historic period we draw upon a new observed global climate data set which allows us to explore aspects of regional climate change related to diurnal temperature range and rainfall variability. The latter includes an investigation of regions where seasonal rainfall is sensitive to El Nino climate variability. This review of past climate change provides the context for our scenarios of future greenhouse gas-induced climate change in Africa. These scenarios draw upon the draft emissions scenarios prepared for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Third Assessment Report, a suite of recent global climate model experiments, and a simple climate model to link these 2 sets of analyses. We present a range of 4 climate futures for Africa, focusing on changes in both continental and regional seasonal-mean temperature and rainfall. Estimates of associated changes in global CO2 concentration and global-mean sea-level change are also supplied. These scenarios draw upon some of the most recent climate modelling work. We also identify some fundamental limitations to knowledge with regard to future African climate. These include the often poor representation of El Nino climate variability in global climate models, and the absence in these models of any representation of regional changes in land cover and dust and biomass aerosol loadings. These omitted processes may well have important consequences for future African climates, especially at regional scales. We conclude by discussing the value of the sort of climate change scenarios presented here and how best they should be used in national and regional vulnerability and adaptation assessments. 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Univ E Anglia, Sch Environm Sci, CSERGE, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. RP Adger, WN, Univ E Anglia, Sch Environm Sci, Tyndall Ctr Climate Change Res, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. AB Future changes in climate pose significant challenges for society, not the least of which is how best to adapt to observed and potential future impacts of these changes to which the world is already committed. Adaptation is a dynamic social process: the ability of societies to adapt is determined, in part, by the ability to act collectively. This article reviews emerging perspectives on collective action and social capital and argues that insights from these areas inform the nature of adaptive capacity and normative prescriptions of policies of adaptation. Specifically, social capital is increasingly understood within economics to have public and private elements, both of which are based on trust, reputation, and reciprocal action. The public-good aspects of particular forms of social capital are pertinent elements of adaptive capacity in interacting with natural capital and in relation to the performance of institutions that cope with the risks of changes in climate. Case studies are presented of present-day collective action for coping with extremes in weather in coastal areas in Southeast Asia and of community-based coastal management in the Caribbean. These cases demonstrate the importance of social capital framing both the public and private institutions of resource management that build resilience in the face of the risks of changes in climate. These cases illustrate, by analogy, the nature of adaptation processes and collective action in adapting to future changes in climate. 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Univ Sussex, Brighton BN1 9RH, E Sussex, England. RP Fairhead, J, Univ London, Sch Oriental & African Studies, London WC1E 7HU, England. AB This paper examines science-policy interactions associated with desiccationism, a gloss for the drying effects of vegetation loss on climate and soils, in Guinea, West Africa. Drawing mainly on case material from the forest region of Guinea between 1900 and the post-Independence period after 1958, it traces the uneven rise to dominance of desiccationism in policy and its effects. Desiccationism, we argue, was a colonial anxiety from the earliest, but until the 1930's scientists, administrators, and populations interacted in configurations that limited the implementation of anti-desiccation policies and forced their adaptation to local resistance. By the 1950's, however, political and administrative changes, coupled with shifting regional and global agendas, enabled a transformation in the relationship between scientific analysis and bureaucracy. Agricultural and forest policy now aligned closely with desiccationism, extending bureaucratic control and exerting profound - and damaging - effects on rural livelihoods. In the political climate leading up to independence, this colonial science-development apparatus became a target of liberationist struggles, provoking greater heed to local resistance. But this proved to be only a short interlude, and post-Independence policies showed remarkable continuity with those in place earlier. Reflecting on recent theoretical debates, we emphasize that comprehending these shifts requires attention to power-knowledge and state-science relations as ss well as political economy and to the actual practices, actions and relationships of administrators and populations. 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Univ Georgia, Dept Anthropol, Athens, GA 30602 USA. RP Magistro, J, Int Dev Enterprises, 10403 W Colfax Ave,Suite 500, Lakewood, CO 80215 USA. AB This paper highlights the relevance of anthropological research to climate science. It suggests that localized scales of analysis, that have been the hallmark of anthropology, can complement global modeling exercises that cannot fully capture the complexities of real life decisions. Community and culture are key dimensions that mediate the interaction between humans and climate, Anthropology has a long-standing tradition of studying vulnerability and adaptation to environmental stresses. Political economy and political ecology approaches contextualize climate risk, highlighting the need to integrate climate products with policy solutions. Microanalyses of risk management and decision-making strategies can bring science and policy closer to the needs of vulnerable groups. Tools and insights from cognitive anthropology also facilitate communication of climate information by ensuring consistency with local knowledge frameworks. CR AGRAWAL A, 1995, DEV CHANGE, V26, P413 BLAIKIE PM, 1994, RISK NATURAL HAZARDS, V1, P1 BROAD K, 2000, PRACT ANTHR, V22, P20 BROAD K, 2000, SCIENCE, V289, P1693 DOWNING TE, 1992, CLIMATE CHANGE VULNE DOWNING TE, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE WORLD, P206 DREZE J, 1989, HUNGER PUBLICATION GLANTZ MH, 1992, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V2, P183 GLANTZ MH, 1996, CURRENTS CHANGE NINO INGRAM KT, 2000, P INT FOR CLIM PRED, P265 KEMPTON W, 1995, ENV VALUES AM CULTUR LAHSEN M, 1999, PARANOIA REASON CASE, P111 MAHMOUD H, 2000, PRACT ANTHR, V22, P11 MORAN E, 1998, PEOPLES PIXELS REMOT NELSON DR, 2000, PRACTICING ANTHR, V22, P6 ORLOVE B, 1999, 99 U CAL I INT STUD ORLOVE B, 2001, LINES WATER NATURE C ORLOVE BS, 2000, NATURE, V403, P68 OTTERSTROM S, 2000, PRACT ANTHR, V22, P15 PFAFF A, 1999, NATURE, V397, P645 PROCTOR JD, 1998, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V8, P227 RAYNER S, 1998, HUMAN CHOICE CLIMATE RHOADES R, 1997, PATHWAYS SUSTAINABLE RIBOT JC, 1996, CLIMATE VARIABILITY, V1, P1 RONCOLI C, IN PRESS READING RAI RONCOLI C, 2000, PRACT ANTHR, V22, P24 SHAW RV, 1998, IHDP P, V1 SMITHERS J, 1997, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V7, P129 STERN PC, 1992, GLOBAL ENV CHANGE UN STERN PC, 1999, MAKING CLIMATE FOREC THOMPSON M, 1998, HUMAN CHOICE CLIMATE, V1, P265 NR 31 TC 1 J9 CLIMATE RES BP 91 EP 96 PY 2001 PD DEC 4 VL 19 IS 2 GA 521BZ UT ISI:000173820000001 ER PT J AU Ye, DZ Lu, JH TI Retrospect and prospect: advances and future strategies in climate research SO PROGRESS IN NATURAL SCIENCE LA English DT Review C1 Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Atmospher Phys, Beijing 100029, Peoples R China. RP Ye, DZ, Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Atmospher Phys, Beijing 100029, Peoples R China. AB A brief review of the progress in climate research and a prospect on its further development in the 21st century is presented. Some key findings including the concept of climate system, the discovery of climatic multi-equilibrium and abrupt climate changes, and the recognition of human activities as an important force of climate change made breakthroughs in climatology possible during last few decades. The adaptation to climatic and global change emerged as a new aspect of climatic research during the 1990s. Climate research will break through in the observation of the global system, in the analysis of mass data, in the deepening of research on the mechanism of climatic change, and in the improvement of models. In the applied fields of climate research, there will be substantial progress in the research on adaptation to global change and sustainable development, on orderly human activities, and climate modification. CR *IGBP, 1988, 4 IGBP *IPCC, 1990, CLIM CHANG 1990 SCI WATSON RT, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, V1, P1 *IPCC, 1995, CLIM CHANG 1995 SCI *IPCC, 2001, CLIM CHANG 2001 SCI *WMO ICSU, 1975, GARP PUBL SER, V16 BLACKMON M, 2001, B AM METEOROL SOC, V82, P2357 CHAO JP, 1993, DYNAMICS EL NINO SO CHARNEY J, 1975, Q J ROY METEOR SOC, V101, P193 COX PM, 2000, NATURE, V408, P184 CROWLEY TJ, 2000, SCIENCE, V289, P270 DEMAREE GR, 1990, Q J ROY METEOR SOC, V116, P221 FALKOWSKI P, 2000, SCIENCE, V290, P291 FU C, 1998, 100 PUZZLES SCI 21 C, P307 GRASSL H, 2000, SCIENCE, V288, P1991 HURRELL JW, 1995, SCIENCE, V269, P676 MAHLMAN JD, 1997, SCIENCE, V278, P1416 PRENTICE IC, 2001, IPCC CLIMATE CHANGE, P183 SELLERS PJ, 1997, SCIENCE, V275, P502 STEFFEN W, 2001, IGBP SCI SERIES, V4 YAN ZW, 1990, SCI CHINA SER B, V33, P1092 YE DZ, 2000, B CHINESE ACAD SCI, V14, P164 YE DZ, 2001, ADV EARTH SCI, V16, P453 ZHANG XH, 2000, IAP GLOBAL OCEAN LAN NR 24 TC 0 J9 PROG NAT SCI BP 241 EP 246 PY 2003 PD APR VL 13 IS 4 GA 661TN UT ISI:000181906000001 ER PT J AU Walter, RC Buffler, RT Bruggemann, JH Guillaume, MMM Berhe, SM Negassi, B Libsekal, Y Cheng, H Edwards, RL von Cosel, R Neraudeau, D Gagnon, M TI Early human occupation of the Red Sea coast of Eritrea during the last interglacial SO NATURE LA English DT Article C1 Ctr Invest Cient Educ Super Ensenada, Dept Geol, Ensenada, Baja California, Mexico. Univ Texas, Inst Geophys, Austin, TX 78712 USA. Univ Groningen, Dept Marine Biol, NL-9750 AA Haren, Netherlands. Univ Asmara, Dept Fisheries & Marine Biol, Asmara, Eritrea. Wageningen Univ Agr, Wageningen Inst Anim Sci, Expt Zool Grp, NL-6700 AH Wageningen, Netherlands. Museum Natl Hist Nat, Lab Biol Invertebres Marins & Malacol, CNRS, ESA 8044, F-75005 Paris, France. African Minerals Inc, Asmara, Eritrea. Minist Energy & Mines, Dept Mines, Asmara, Eritrea. Natl Museum Eritrea, Asmara, Eritrea. Univ Asmara, Archaeol Unit, Asmara, Eritrea. Univ Minnesota, Dept Geol & Geophys, Minneapolis, MN 55455 USA. Univ Rennes 1, Geosci Rennes, Lab Paleontol, F-35042 Rennes, France. Univ Toronto, Dept Anthropol, Toronto, ON M5S 3G3, Canada. RP Walter, RC, Ctr Invest Cient Educ Super Ensenada, Dept Geol, Km 107 Carr Tijuana Ensenada, Ensenada, Baja California, Mexico. AB The geographical origin of modern humans is the subject of ongoing scientific debate. The 'multiregional evolution' hypothesis argues that modern humans evolved semi-independently in Europe, Asia and Africa between 100,000 and 40,000 years ago 1, whereas the 'out of Africa' hypothesis contends that modern humans evolved in Africa between 200 and 100 kyr ago, migrating to Eurasia at some later time(2). Direct palaeontological, archaeological and biological evidence is necessary to resolve this debate. Here we report the discovery of early Middle Stone Age artefacts in an emerged reef terrace on the Red Sea coast of Eritrea, which we date to the last interglacial (about 125 kyr ago) using U-Th mass spectrometry techniques on fossil corals. The geological setting of these artefacts shows that early humans occupied coastal areas and exploited near-shore marine food resources in East Africa by this time. Together with similar, tentatively dated discoveries from South Africa(3) this is the earliest well-dated evidence for human adaptation to a coastal marine environment, heralding an expansion in the range and complexity of human behaviour from one end of Africa to the other. This new, widespread adaptive strategy may, in part, signal the onset of modern human behaviour, which supports an African origin for modern humans by 125 kyr ago. CR BRINK JS, 1982, PALAEOECOL AFR, V15, P31 CHEN JH, 1991, GEOL SOC AM BULL, V103, P82 CHENG H, IN PRESS HALF LIVES CLARK JD, 1988, J WORLD PREHIST, V2, P237 CONFORTO L, 1976, SOC IT MIN PET, V32, P153 DEACON HJ, 1989, HUMAN REVOLUTION BEH, P547 EDWARDS RL, 1986, EARTH PLANET SC LETT, V81, P175 ELASMAR HM, 1997, QUATERNARY SCI REV, V16, P911 FAURE H, 1968, CR HEBD ACAD SCI, V267, P18 FAURE H, 1980, B SOC GEOL FR, V22, P959 FREYTET P, 1993, Z GEOMORPHOL, V37, P215 GRUN R, 1991, ARCHAEOMETRY, V33, P153 GVIRTZMAN G, 1977, MEMOIRES BUREAU RECH, V89, P480 GVIRTZMAN G, 1992, MAR GEOL, V108, P29 HOANG CT, 1974, COL INT CNRS, V219, P103 HOANG CT, 1991, QUATERNARY RES, V35, P264 HOANG CT, 1996, QUATERN INT, V31, P47 HOROWITZ A, 1989, PALAEOGEOGR PALAEOCL, V72, P63 KLEIN RG, 1989, HUMAN REVOLUTION BEH, P529 LEAKEY L, 1931, STONE AGE CULTURES K LENEY M, 1999, DISCOV ARCHAEOL, V1, P18 MONTENAT C, 1986, B I FRAN ARCHEOL ORI, V86, P239 PHILIPSONDW, 1993, AFRICAN ARCHAEOLOGY PLAZIAT JC, 1998, SEDIMENTATION TECTON, P537 STIRLING CH, 1998, EARTH PLANET SC LETT, V160, P745 STRINGER CB, 1990, SCI AM, V263, P98 TAVIANI M, 1998, SEDIMENTATION TECTON, P574 THORNE A, 1992, SCI AM APR, P28 VANPEER P, 1998, CURR ANTHROPOL, V39, P115 WALTER RC, 1997, LITHOSPHERIC STRUCTU NR 30 TC 24 J9 NATURE BP 65 EP 69 PY 2000 PD MAY 4 VL 405 IS 6782 GA 311TK UT ISI:000086901600051 ER PT J AU Connor, RF Hiroki, K TI Development of a method for assessing flood vulnerability SO WATER SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY LA English DT Article C1 CPWC, NL-2601 DA Delft, Netherlands. Minist Land Infrastruct & Transport, River Bur, Chiyoda Ku, Tokyo 1008918, Japan. RP Connor, RF, CPWC, POB 3015, NL-2601 DA Delft, Netherlands. AB Over the past few decades, a growing number of studies have been conducted on the mechanisms responsible for climate change and the elaboration of future climate scenarios. More recently, studies have emerged examining the potential effects of climate change on human societies, including how variations in hydrological regimes impact water resources management. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's third assessment report, climate change will lead to an intensification of the hydrological cycle, resulting in greater variability in precipitation patterns and an increase in the intensity and frequency of severe storms and other extreme events. In other words, climate change will likely increase the risks of flooding in many areas. Structural and non-structural countermeasures are available to reduce flood vulnerability, but implementing new measures can be a lengthy process requiring political and financial support. In order to help guide such policy decisions, a method for assessing flood vulnerability due to climate change is proposed. In this preliminary study, multivariate analysis has been used to develop a Flood Vulnerability Index (FVI), which allows for a comparative analysis of flood vulnerability between different basins. Once fully developed, the FVI will also allow users to identify the main factors responsible for a basin's vulnerability, making it a valuable tool to assist in priority setting within decision-making processes. CR *CTR EC HYDR, 2003, CLIM CHANG WAT RUL W KAINUMA M, 2002, CLIMATE POLICY ASSES MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 SULLIVAN C, 2002, WORLD DEV, V30, P1195 SULLIVAN CA, 2003, SCOPING STUDY IDENTI NR 5 TC 0 J9 WATER SCI TECHNOL BP 61 EP 67 PY 2005 VL 51 IS 5 GA 931CW UT ISI:000229464400011 ER PT J AU TARRANT, JR TI VARIABILITY IN WORLD CEREAL YIELDS SO TRANSACTIONS OF THE INSTITUTE OF BRITISH GEOGRAPHERS LA English DT Article RP TARRANT, JR, UNIV E ANGLIA,ENVIRONM SCI,NORWICH NR4 7TJ,NORFOLK,ENGLAND. CR BORLAUG NE, 1968, 3RD P INT WHEAT GEN BUTZER KW, 1980, PROF GEOGR, V32, P269 CAMPBELL KO, 1974, FOOD FUTURE DANDO WA, 1980, GEOGRAPHY FAMINE ECKHOLM EP, 1976, LOSING GROUND FALCON WP, 1970, AM J AGR ECON, V52, P698 FEYERHERM AM, 1981, AGRON J, V73, P863 GRIGG D, 1985, WORLD FOOD PROBLEM 1 HAZELL PBR, 1984, AM J AGR ECON, V66, P302 HAZELL PBR, 1985, AM J AGR EC, V36, P145 HENDRICK RL, 1970, J HYDROL, V10, P151 HENRY P, 1981, REG POLICY SER, V21 INSEL B, 1985, FOREIGN AFF, V63, P892 JENNINGS PR, 1974, SCIENCE, V185, P1085 JOHNSTON RJ, 1984, T I BRIT GEOGR, V9, P443 KOGAN FN, 1983, AGR METEOROL, V28, P213 KONANDREAS P, 1979, FOOD POLICY, V4, P3 LOUGH JM, 1983, J CLIM APPL METEOROL, V22, P1673 MEARS L, 1981, NEW RICE EC INDONESI MOSTEK A, 1981, AGR METEOROL, V25, P111 REUTLINGER S, 1977, FOOD INSECURITY MAGN TARRANT JR, 1985, PROG HUM GEOG, V9, P235 TARRANT JR, 1980, FOOD POLICIES TARRANT JR, 1984, T I BRIT GEOGR, V9, P387 TARRANT JR, 1987, VARIABILITY CEREAL Y, CH3 TAYLOR LR, 1980, J ANIM ECOL, V49, P209 TERJUNG WH, 1984, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V6, P193 THOMPSON LM, 1975, SCIENCE, V188, P535 UCHIJIMA Z, 1986, ASSESSMENT CLIMATE I, V1 WARD RC, 1967, PRINCIPLES HYDROLOGY WITTWER SW, 1980, BIOL CROP PRODUCTIVI, P413 WORTMAN S, 1978, FEED THIS WORLD NR 32 TC 2 J9 TRANS INST BRIT GEOGR BP 315 EP 326 PY 1987 VL 12 IS 3 GA K9286 UT ISI:A1987K928600004 ER PT J AU Steele, JH TI Regime shifts in the ocean: reconciling observations and theory SO PROGRESS IN OCEANOGRAPHY LA English DT Review C1 Woods Hole Oceanog Inst, Woods Hole, MA 02543 USA. RP Steele, JH, Woods Hole Oceanog Inst, Woods Hole, MA 02543 USA. AB The discussions in the Villefranche Workshop covered a wide range of issues. The term regime shift was originally confined to spatial or temporal correspondences between climatic indices and population abundance. The body of evidence for physical-biological coupling has certainly generated a much better appreciation of the natural decadal scale variability in marine systems. It is difficult, however, to deduce from these time series, the mechanisms or trophic pathways that produce the correspondence. Ideally, we would need experimental manipulations such as those used in small takes, to unravel the causal connections. Since this is impossible in the open sea, we must use comparisons between systems subject to different types of perturbation or stress. We focused at the Workshop on the effects of over-fishing in different marine regimes. The consequences of large scale changes in community structure imposed by excessive fishing give valuable case studies. Coral reefs, rocky shores, freshwater and terrestrial ecosystems provide other examples. The possible existence of similar processes across such diverse systems raises corresponding questions about common ecological principles. The adaptive benefits of maximizing resilience (defined as minimizing the largest eigenvalue of the perturbed system) were considered. The corollary of this assumption is that, at the limits of adaptation, there will be switching between communities, providing a potential ground for a broad definition of regime shifts. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 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RUSSIAN ACAD SCI,CTR ECOL & FOREST PROD,MOSCOW 117418,RUSSIA. STATE HYDROL INST,ST PETERSBURG 199053,RUSSIA. RP Krankina, ON, OREGON STATE UNIV,DEPT FOREST SCI,PEAVY HALL 154,CORVALLIS,OR 97330. AB The Russian Federation contains approximately 20% of the world's timber resources and more than half of all boreal forests. These forests play a prominent role in environmental protection and economic development at global, national, and local levels, as well as, provide commodities for indigenous people and habitat for a variety of plant and animal species. The response and feedbacks of Russian boreal forests to projected global climate change are expected to be profound. Large shifts in the distribution (up to 19% area reduction) and productivity of boreal forests are implied by scenarios of General Circulation Models (GCMs), Uncertainty regarding the potential distribution and productivity of future boreal forests complicates the development of adaptation strategies for forest establishment, management, harvesting and wood processing. Although a low potential exists for rapid natural adaptation of long lived, complex boreal forests, recent analyses suggest Russian forest management and utilization strategies should be field tested to assess their potential to assist boreal forests in adaptation to a changing global environment. Current understanding of the vulnerability of Russian forest resources to projected climate change is discussed and examples of possible adaptation measures for Russian forests are presented, including: (1) artificial forestation techniques that can be applied with the advent of failed natural regeneration and to facilitate forest migration northward; (2) silvicultural measures that can influence the species mix to maintain productivity under future climates; (3) identifying forests at risk and developing special management adaptation measures for them; (4) alternative processing and uses of wood and non-wood products from future forests; and (5) potential future infrastructure and transport systems that can be employed as boreal forests shift northward into melting permafrost zones. Current infrastructure and technology can be employed to help Russian boreal forests adapt to projected global environmental change, however many current forest management practices may have to be modified. Application of this technical knowledge can help policymakers identify priorities for climate change adaptation. 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RP Trawick, P, Univ Kentucky, Dept Anthropol, Lexington, KY 40506 USA. AB This article focuses on irrigation and water use in a community in the Peruvian Andes, one of numerous villages in the region where these activities are carried out in an unusual way. The practices and principles that make up this tradition, defining the rights and duties of community members in making use of the resource most vital for life, are identified and evaluated based on comparative ethnographic research. It is argued that they provide a highly effective way of managing a scarce and fluctuating resource that is held in common, an older Andean tradition that may have been adopted by the Incas and endorsed as an official policy-all of which might help to account for its wide distribution in the region today. In this particular case, the principles help to create an extraordinary kind of community, a transparent and equitable one in which a basic material symmetry or proportionality is expressed at many levels. This symmetry is closely related to other basic commonalities among community members, but of particular interest are its effects on social solidarity and cooperation and its association with a strong sense of ethnic identity. The implications of this tradition for solving contemporary problems in water management are also briefly discussed. 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RP Bouwer, LM, Free Univ Amsterdam, Fac Earth & Life Sci, Inst Environm Studies, De Boelelaan 1087, NL-1081 HV Amsterdam, Netherlands. AB Current climate variability and anticipated climate change challenge our water systems and our financial resources. The sharing of economic losses due to weather related hazards and the sharing of costs that result from protecting lives and property take place in different forms, but are currently insufficient. In this paper we discuss three different rationales for financing disaster losses through public and private arrangements, as well as options for financing adaptation, with a special focus on water management. We propose that financial arrangements for risk sharing and climate change adaptation should be reconsidered, in a more structured approach, to be able to deal with both disaster losses and the costs that arise because of climate change adaptation, e.g. for water management, in both developing and developed countries. CR *CCR, 1999, NAT DIS FRANC *EC, 2002, COM, P481 *IFRC, 2002, WORLD DIS REP 2002 F *SWISS RE, 2002, FLOODS INS BOUWER LM, 2004, E0406 I ENV STUD DOWNTON M, 2001, NATURAL HAZARDS REV, V2, P157 GROSSMAN D, 2003, COL J ENV LAW, V28, P1 HOFF H, 2003, RISK MANAGEMENT WATE HUQ S, 2003, MAINSTREAMING ADAPTA KABAT P, 2003, CLIMATE CHANGES WATE LINNEROOTHBAYER J, 2003, UNFCCC WORKSH UNFCCC PARRY ML, 1998, NATURE, V421, P37 VELLINGA P, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, P417 VRIES FJ, 1998, NEDERLANDS JURISTEN, V73, P1908 WILFORD M, 1993, GLOBAL GREENHOUSE RE, P169 NR 15 TC 1 J9 WATER SCI TECHNOL BP 89 EP 95 PY 2005 VL 51 IS 5 GA 931CW UT ISI:000229464400014 ER PT J AU Stewart, JR TI The ecology and adaptation of Neanderthals during the non-analogue environment of Oxygen Isotope Stage 3 SO QUATERNARY INTERNATIONAL LA English DT Article C1 Univ Coll London, Dept Biol, London WC1 6BT, England. RP Stewart, JR, Univ Coll London, Dept Biol, Gower St, London WC1 6BT, England. AB The ecology of Neanderthals is discussed using an analysis of the fauna present in Europe during OIS 3, the period during which they became extinct. The environment of the Neanderthals is demonstrated to be without modern analogue. The non-analogue nature is characterised by the combination of mammals living together in OIS 3 Europe that are not found in sympatry today as well as the extinct elements of the fauna. The singularity of OIS 3, in terms of the arrival of modern humans and climatic variability, has been formerly implicated in the extinction of the Neanderthals. These perspectives are discussed in the light of related work on evolution and extinction. Finally, the cold-temperature adaptations of Neanderthals, such as their robusticity and limb proportions, are considered in the light of the interpretations of similar traits in other animals in the Late Pleistocene. © 2004 Elsevier Ltd and INQUA. All rights reserved. CR *FAUNM WORK GROUP, 1994, FAUNM DAT DOC LAT PL AIELLO LC, 2003, MCDONAL I MONOGRAPHY, P147 BARNES J, 2001, SCIENCE, V295, P2267 BARNOSKY AD, 1996, PALAEOECOLOGY PALAEO, P16 BARRON E, 2002, QUATERNARY RES, V58, P296 BRAMBLE DM, 2004, NATURE, V432, P345 COCK AG, 1969, GENETICS RES, V14, P237 COLINVAUX PA, 1986, Q REV ARCHAEOLOGY, V7, P8 COOPE GR, 1973, NATURE, V245, P335 DANSGAARD W, 1993, NATURE, V364, P218 DAVIES SWG, IN PRESS OVERVIEW RE DAVIES SWG, 2001, STAGE THREE PROJECT DAVIES W, 2001, P PREHIST SOC, V67, P195 DAVIES W, 2003, NEANDERTHALS MODERN, P167 DAVIS SJM, 1981, PALEOBIOLOGY, V7, P101 DERRICO F, 2003, QUATERNARY SCI REV, V22, P769 FINLAYSON C, 2000, 3 C ARQ PEN, V2, P277 FINLAYSON C, 2000, MEMOIRS GIBCEMED, V1, P1 GAMBLE C, 2004, PHILOS T ROY SOC B, V359, P155 GEIST V, 1987, CAN J ZOOL, V65, P1035 GRAHAM RW, 1986, DYNAMICS EXTINCTION, P131 GRAHAM RW, 1996, SCIENCE, V272, P1601 GRAYSON DK, 2003, J ARCHAEOL SCI, V30, P1633 GUTHRIE RD, 1990, FROZEN FAUNA MAMMOUT GUTHRIE RD, 1990, MEGAFAUNA MAN DICOS, P42 HELMENS KF, 2000, QUATERNARY SCI REV, V19, P1605 HEWITT G, 2000, NATURE, V405, P907 HOLLIDAY TW, 1997, J HUM EVOL, V32, P423 HUNTLEY B, 1996, QUATERNARY SCI REV, V15, P591 HUNTLEY B, 2003, QUATERNARY RES, V59, P195 JORIS O, 2003, TRABAJOS PREHISTORIA, V60, P15 KURTEN B, 1958, ACTA ZOOL FENN, P95 KURTEN B, 1968, CAVE BEAR STORY KURTEN B, 1968, PLEISTOCENE MAMMALS LISTER AM, 1987, T TORQUAY NATURAL HI, V19, P189 LISTER AM, 1995, NATURE, V378, P23 LISTER AM, 2004, PHILOS T ROY SOC B, V359, P221 MACDONALD D, 1993, MAMMALS BRITAIN EURO MARKOVA AK, 1992, COURIER FORSCH I SEN, V153, P93 MAYR R, 1970, POPULATIONS SPECEIES MITCHELLJONES AJ, 1999, ATLAS EUROPEAN MAMMA MUSIL R, 2003, NEANDERTHALS MODERN, P167 OREGAN HJ, 2002, J QUATERNARY SCI, V17, P789 PARFITT S, 1999, ENGLISH HERITAGE MON, V16, P197 PARFITT S, 1999, EXCAVATIONS LOWER PA, P111 PETTITT PB, 1999, OXFORD J ARCHAEOLOGY, V18, P217 PLUMMER TW, 1994, J HUM EVOL, V27, P47 POLLARD D, 2003, QUATERNARY RES, V59, P108 POTTS R, 1996, SCIENCE, V273, P922 POTTS R, 1998, EVOL ANTHROPOL, V7, P81 RITCHIE JC, 1982, PALEOECOLOGY BERINGI, P113 RITCHIE JC, 1984, PAST PRESENT VEGETAT SHAPIRO B, 2004, RISE FALL BERINGIAN, V306, P1561 STAFFORD TW, 1999, GEOLOGY, V27, P903 STEWART JR, 1999, SMITHSONIA CONTRIBUT, V89, P159 STEWART JR, 2000, 6 ANN M EUR ASS ARCH STEWART JR, 2001, STAGE 3 PROJ MAMMALI STEWART JR, 2001, TRENDS ECOL EVOL, V16, P608 STEWART JR, 2003, MCDONALD I MONOGRAPH, P103 STEWART JR, 2003, MCDONALD I MONOGRAPH, P221 STEWART JR, 2003, SCIENCE, V299, A825 STEWART JR, 2004, BAR INT SERIES, V1240, P261 STEWART JR, 2004, INT J OSTEOARCHAEOL, V14, P178 STRAUS LG, 2000, ANTIQUITY, V74, P553 STRINGER C, 2003, MCDONALD I MONOGRAPH, P233 STUART AJ, 2002, QUATERNARY SCI REV, V21, P1559 TATTERSALL I, 1995, FOSSIL TRAIL KNOW TH TRINKAUS E, 1981, ASPECTS HUMAN EVOLUT, P187 TRINKAUS E, 1999, J HUM EVOL, V37, P1 UKKONEN P, 1999, J QUATERNARY SCI, V14, P711 VANANDEL TH, 2003, MCDONALD I MONOGRAPH, P257 WILLIS KJ, 2000, SCIENCE, V287, P1406 ZILHAO J, 2003, TRABALHOS ARQUEOLOGI, V33, P313 NR 73 TC 4 J9 QUATERN INT BP 35 EP 46 PY 2005 PD AUG VL 137 GA 932NH UT ISI:000229559900004 ER PT J AU Easterling, WE Mearns, LO Hays, CJ Marx, D TI Comparison of agricultural impacts of climate change calculated from high and low resolution climate change scenarios: Part II. Accounting for adaptation and CO2 direct effects SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 Penn State Univ, Dept Geog, University Pk, PA 16802 USA. Penn State Univ, Ctr Earth Syst Sci, University Pk, PA 16802 USA. Natl Ctr Atmospher Res, Environm & Soc Impacts Grp, Boulder, CO 80307 USA. Univ Nebraska, Sch Nat Resource Sci, Lincoln, NE 68583 USA. Univ Nebraska, Dept Biometry, Lincoln, NE 68583 USA. RP Easterling, WE, Penn State Univ, Dept Geog, University Pk, PA 16802 USA. AB We assert that the simulation of fine-scale crop growth processes and agronomic adaptive management using coarse-scale climate change scenarios lower confidence in regional estimates of agronomic adaptive potential. Specifically, we ask: 1) are simulated yield responses to low-resolution climate change, after adaptation (without and with increased atmospheric CO2), significantly different from simulated yield responses to high-resolution climate change, after adaptation (without and with increased atmospheric CO2)? and 2) does the scale of the soils information, in addition to the scale of the climate change information, affect yields after adaptation? Equilibrium (1 x CO2 versus 2 x CO2) climate changes are simulated at two different spatial resolutions in the Great Plains using the CSIRO general circulation model (low resolution) and the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) RegCM2 regional climate model (high resolution). The EPIC crop model is used to simulate the effects of these climate changes; adaptations in EPIC include earlier planting and switch to longer-season cultivars. Adapted yields (without and with additional carbon dioxide) are compared at the different spatial resolutions. Our findings with respect to question 1 suggest adaptation is more effective in most cases when simulated with a higher resolution climate change than its more generalized low resolution equivalent. We are not persuaded that the use of high resolution climate change information provides insights into the direct effects of higher atmospheric CO2 levels on crops beyond what can be obtained with low resolution information. However, this last finding may be partly an artifact of the agriculturally benign CSIRO and RegCM2 climate changes. With respect to question 2, we found that high resolution details of soil characteristics are particularly important to include in adaptation simulations in regions typified by soils with poor water holding capacity. CR WATSON RT, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, V1, P1 *USDA, 1981, USDA AGR HDB, V296 *USDA, 1994, USDA AGR HDB, V1392 EASTERLING WE, 1992, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V59, P17 EASTERLING WE, 1992, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V59, P53 EASTERLING WE, 1992, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V59, P75 EASTERLING WE, 1993, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V24, P23 EASTERLING WE, 1996, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V80, P1 EASTERLING WE, 1996, CLIMATE RES, V6, P263 EASTERLING WE, 1997, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V7, P337 EASTERLING WE, 1998, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V90, P51 KINIRY JR, 1990, USDA ARS TECH B, V1768, P220 MEARNS LO, 1999, J GEOPHYS RES-ATMOS, V104, P6623 MEARNS LO, 2001, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V51, P131 ROSENBERG NJ, 1992, AGR FOR METEOROL, V59, P35 ROSENZWEIG C, 1989, POTENTIAL EFFECTS GL, V1 ROSENZWEIG C, 1994, NATURE, V367, P133 SCHNEIDER SH, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P203 SMIT B, 1996, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V33, P7 STOCKLE CO, 1992, AGR SYST, V38, P225 WILLIAMS JR, 1984, T ASAE, V27, P129 WILLIAMS JR, 1990, USDA TECH B, V1768, P3 NR 22 TC 10 J9 CLIMATIC CHANGE BP 173 EP 197 PY 2001 PD NOV VL 51 IS 2 GA 479HE UT ISI:000171398300003 ER PT J AU OBrien, G O'Keefe, P Rose, J Wisner, B TI Climate change and disaster management SO DISASTERS LA English DT Article C1 Northumbria Univ, Sch Appl Sci, Newcastle Upon Tyne NE1 8ST, Tyne & Wear, England. ETC UK, N Shields NE30 1NQ, Northd, England. RP OBrien, G, Northumbria Univ, Sch Appl Sci, Newcastle Upon Tyne NE1 8ST, Tyne & Wear, England. AB Climate change, although a natural phenomenon, is accelerated by human activities. Disaster policy response to climate change is dependent on a number of factors, such as readiness to accept the reality of climate change, institutions and capacity, as well as willingness to embed climate change risk assessment and management in development strategies. These conditions do not yet exist universally. A focus that neglects to enhance capacity-building and resilience as a prerequisite for managing climate change risks will, in all likelihood, do little to reduce vulnerability to those risks. Reducing vulnerability is a key aspect of reducing climate change risk. To do so requires a new approach to climate change risk and a change in institutional structures and relationships. A focus on development that neglects to enhance governance and resilience as a prerequisite for managing climate change risks will, in all likelihood, do little to reduce vulnerability to those risks. 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Columbia Univ, Goddard Inst Space Studies, New York, NY 10027 USA. RP Fischer, G, Int Inst Appl Syst Anal, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria. AB A comprehensive assessment of the impacts of climate change on agro-ecosystems over this century is developed, up to 2080 and at a global level, albeit with significant regional detail. To this end an integrated ecological-economic modelling framework is employed, encompassing climate scenarios, agro-ecological zoning information, socio-economic drivers, as well as world food trade dynamics. Specifically, global simulations are performed using the FAO/IIASA agro-ecological zone model, in conjunction with IIASAs global food system model, using climate variables from five different general circulation models, under four different socio-economic scenarios from the intergovernmental panel on climate change. First, impacts of different scenarios of climate change on bio-physical soil and crop growth determinants of yield are evaluated on a 5' X 5' latitude/longitude global grid; second, the extent of potential agricultural land and related potential crop production is computed. The detailed bio-physical results are then fed into an economic analysis, to assess how climate impacts may interact with alternative development pathways, and key trends expected over this century for food demand and production, and trade, as well as key composite indices such as risk of hunger and malnutrition, are computed. This modelling approach connects the relevant bio-physical and socioeconomic variables within a unified and coherent framework to produce a global assessment of food production and security under climate change. The results from the study suggest that critical impact asymmetries due to both climate and socio-economic structures may deepen current production and consumption gaps between developed and developing world; it is suggested that adaptation of agricultural techniques will be central to limit potential damages under climate change. 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KENYON COLL,GAMBIER,OH 43022. NR 0 TC 0 J9 PAP INT STUD SE ASIA SER BP 148 EP 164 PY 1977 IS M41 GA DG897 UT ISI:A1977DG89700011 ER PT J AU Berkes, F Colding, J Folke, C TI Rediscovery of traditional ecological knowledge as adaptive management SO ECOLOGICAL APPLICATIONS LA English DT Article C1 Univ Manitoba, Nat Resources Inst, Winnipeg, MB R3T 2N2, Canada. Univ Stockholm, Dept Syst Ecol, S-10691 Stockholm, Sweden. Royal Swedish Acad Sci, Beijer Int Inst Ecol Econ, S-10405 Stockholm, Sweden. RP Berkes, F, Univ Manitoba, Nat Resources Inst, Winnipeg, MB R3T 2N2, Canada. AB Indigenous groups offer alternative knowledge and perspectives based on their own locally developed practices of resource use. We surveyed the international literature to focus on the role of Traditional Ecological Knowledge in monitoring, responding to, and managing ecosystem processes and functions, with special attention to ecological resilience. Case studies revealed that there exists a diversity of local or traditional practices for ecosystem management. These include multiple species management, resource rotation, succession management, landscape patchiness management, and other ways of responding to and managing pulses and ecological surprises. Social mechanisms behind these traditional practices include a number of adaptations for the generation, accumulation, and transmission of knowledge; the use of local institutions to provide leaders/stewards and rules for social regulation; mechanisms for cultural internalization of traditional practices; and the development of appropriate world views and cultural values. Some traditional knowledge and management systems were characterized by the use of local ecological knowledge to interpret and respond to feedbacks from the environment to guide the direction of resource management. These traditional systems had certain similarities to adaptive management with its emphasis on feedback learning, and its treatment of uncertainty and unpredictability intrinsic to all ecosystems. 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Inst Nacl Antropol & Hist, La Paz 23000, Baja California, Mexico. RP Porcasi, JF, Univ Calif Los Angeles, CotsenInst Archaeol, Zooarchaeol Lab, Los Angeles, CA 90024 USA. AB Synthesis of faunal collections from several archaeological sites on the three southernmost California Channel islands and one in the Cape Region of Baja California reveals a distinctive maritime adaptation more heavily reliant on the capture of pelagic dolphins than on near-shore pinnipeds. Previous reports from other Southern California coastal sites suggest that dolphin hunting may have occurred there but to a lesser extent, While these findings may represent localized adaptations to special conditions on these islands and the Cape Region, they call for reassessment of the conventionally held concept that pinnipeds were invariably the primary mammalian food resource for coastal peoples. Evidence of the intensive use of small cetaceans is antithetical to the accepted models of maritime optimal foraging which assume that shore-based or near-shore marine mammals (i.e., pinnipeds) would be the highest-ranked prey because they were readily encountered and captured. While methods of dolphin hunting remain archaeologically invisible, several island cultures in which dolphin were intensively exploited by people using primitive watercraft and little or no weaponry are presented as possible analogs to a prehistoric Southern California dolphin-hunting technique. These findings also indicate that dolphin hunting was probably a cooperative endeavor among various members of the prehistoric community. 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Royal Swedish Acad Sci, Beijer Int Inst Ecol Econ, Stockholm, Sweden. RP Folke, C, Stockholm Univ, Dept Syst Ecol, CTM, Ctr Transdisciplinary Environm Res, SE-10691 Stockholm, Sweden. AB The resilience perspective is increasingly used as an approach for understanding the dynamics of social-ecological systems. This article presents the origin of the resilience perspective and provides an overview of its development to date. With roots in one branch of ecology and the discovery of multiple basins of attraction in ecosystems in the 1960-1970s, it inspired social and environmental scientists to challenge the dominant stable equilibrium view. The resilience approach emphasizes non-linear dynamics, thresholds, uncertainty and surprise, how periods of gradual change interplay with periods of rapid change and how such dynamics interact across temporal and spatial scales. The history was dominated by empirical observations of ecosystem dynamics interpreted in mathematical models, developing into the adaptive management approach for responding to ecosystem change. Serious attempts to integrate the social dimension is currently taking place in resilience work reflected in the large numbers of sciences involved in explorative studies and new discoveries of linked social-ecological systems. Recent advances include understanding of social processes like, social learning and social memory, mental models and knowledge-system integration, visioning and scenario building, leadership, agents and actor groups, social networks, institutional and organizational inertia and change, adaptive capacity, transformability and systems of adaptive governance that allow for management of essential ecosystem services. (c) 2006 Published by Elsevier Ltd. 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ECOL, V6, P1 WALKER BH, 2004, ECOLOGY SOC, V9, P5 WALKER BH, 1981, J ECOL, V69, P473 WALKER BH, 1992, CONSERV BIOL, V6, P18 WALKER BH, 2006, ECOLOGY SOC, V11, P1 WALKER SM, 2002, J INST BRIT TELECO 1, V3, P19 WALTERS CJ, 1986, ADAPTIVE MANAGEMENT WESTLEY F, 2002, PANARCHY UNDERSTANDI, P333 WESTOBY M, 1989, J RANGE MANAGE, V42, P266 YOUNG OR, 2000, I DIMENSIONS ENV CHA ZIMMERER KS, 1994, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V84, P108 ZIMOV SA, 1995, AM NAT, V146, P765 NR 185 TC 7 J9 GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANGE BP 253 EP 267 PY 2006 PD AUG VL 16 IS 3 GA 073OJ UT ISI:000239752200004 ER PT J AU Kates, RW TI Queries on the human use of the earth SO ANNUAL REVIEW OF ENERGY AND THE ENVIRONMENT LA English DT Review AB The central question of my scientific work has been, what is and ought to be the human use of the earth? It has been pursued collectively, with mentor, colleagues, students, and friends as a set of research questions related to hazards, hunger, and sustainable development. Regarding hazard, I tried to understand why people persist in occupying areas subject to natural and technological hazards and how adaptation made this possible. An extended stay in Africa to research both environment and development led to new queries. Why does hunger persist amid a world of plenty, and what can be done to end it? Can there be a transition to sustainability that over the next two generations would meet human needs and reduce hunger and poverty while maintaining the essential life support systems of the planet? All three themes and the research methods used to pursue them come together in an emerging sustainability science. 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RP Ropke, I, Tech Univ Denmark, Dept Mfg Engn & Management, Matematiktorvet Bldg 303 E, DK-2800 Lyngby, Denmark. AB This paper provides a historical perspective for the discussion on ecological economics as a special field of research. By studying the historical background of ecological economics, the present discussions and tensions inside the field might become easier to understand and to relate to. The study is inspired by other studies of the emergence of new research areas done by sociologists and historians of science, and includes both cognitive and social aspects, macro trends and the role of individuals. The basis for the paper is a combination of literature studies and interviews with key researchers from the field. The story opens with the emergence of the new environmental agenda in the 1960s, which was influenced by the scientific development in biology and ecology. Then it is outlined how the environmental challenge was met by economics in the 1960s. Around 1970, the basic ideas of ecological economics were given modem formulations, but it took a long gestation period from the beginning of the 1970s to the end of the 1980s, before ecological economics took shape. During this gestation period, the personal relationships between the actors were formed, and the meetings that were decisive for the formal establishment of ecological economics took place. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V All rights reserved. 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Univ Vermont, Rubenstein Sch Environm & Nat Resouces, Burlington, VT 05401 USA. RP Khagram, S, Univ Washington, Seattle, WA 98195 USA. AB A broadening research program focused on environment and security emerged over the past 30 years. But the meaning and operationalization of environment and security have been an implicit and increasingly explicit part of the scholarly debate. Approaches range from the more specific focus on the linkages between environmental change and violent (deadly) conflict, the possible role of environmental conservation, cooperation, and collaboration in promoting peace, and the broader focus on potential relationships between environmental change and human security (understood as freedom from both violent conflict and physical want). In addition to the different conceptions of environment and security, the type and direction of causal relationships among different factors continue to be a focus of research. With respect to the environment and violent conflict, which constitute the largest explicit research stream on environment and security, the debate has centered on whether and why environmental scarcity, abundance, or dependence might cause militarized conflict. Less research has been conducted on the environmental effects of violent conflict and war or traditional security institutions such as militaries and military-industrial complexes. Rigorous research on the consequences of peace or human security for the environment is virtually nonexistent. 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Clark Univ, George Perkins Marsh Inst, Worcester, MA 01602 USA. East West Ctr, Honolulu, HI 96848 USA. Macro Int, Demog & Hlth Res Div, Calverton, MD 20705 USA. Univ N Carolina, Carolina Populat Ctr, Chapel Hill, NC 27516 USA. Univ N Carolina, Dept Sociol, Chapel Hill, NC 27599 USA. Univ N Carolina, Dept Geog, Chapel Hill, NC 27599 USA. RP Turner, BL, Clark Univ, Grad Sch Geog, Worcester, MA 01602 USA. AB Land-change science has emerged as a foundational element of global environment change and sustainability science. It seeks to understand the human and environment dynamics that give rise to changed land uses and covers, not only in terms of their type and magnitude but their location as well. This focus requires the integration of social, natural, and geographical information sciences. Each of these broad research communities has developed different ways to enter the land-change problem, each with different means of treating the locational specificity of the critical variables, such as linking the land manager to the parcel being managed. The resulting integration encounters various data, methodological, and analytical problems, especially those concerning aggregation and inference, land-use pixel links, data and measurement, and remote sensing analysis. Here, these integration problems, which hinder comprehensive understanding and theory development, are addressed. Their recognition and resolution are required for the sustained development of land-change science. 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Resources Future Inc, Washington, DC 20036 USA. RP Sedjo, R, Ohio State Univ, AED Econ, 2120 Fyffe Rd, Columbus, OH 43210 USA. AB This paper examines potential climate change impacts in North American timber markets. The results indicate that climate change could increase productivity in forests in North America, increase productivity in forests globally, and reduce timber prices. North American consumers generally will gain from the potential changes, but producers could lose welfare. If dieback resulting from additional forest fires, increased pest infestation, or storm damage increases appreciably and has market effects, consumers will gain less and producers will lose more than if climate change simply increases the annual flow of timber products by raising forest productivity. Annual producers' surplus losses from climate change in the North American timber sector are estimated to range from $1.4 - $2.1 billion per year on average over the next century, with the higher number resulting from potential large-scale dieback. Within North America, existing studies suggest that producers in northern regions are less susceptible to climate change impacts than producers in southern regions because many climate and ecological models suggest that climates become dryer in the U.S. South. CR *VEMAP MEMB, 1995, GLOBAL BIOGEOCHEMICA, V9, P407 CLAUSSEN M, 1996, CLIM DYNAM, V12, P371 DALE VH, 2001, BIOSCIENCE, V51, P723 HAXELTINE A, 1996, GLOBAL BIOGEOCHEM CY, V10, P693 HAYNES R, 2003, PNWGTR560 USDA FOR S IRLAND LC, 2001, BIOSCIENCE, V51, P753 IVERSON LR, 2001, ECOSYSTEMS, V4, P186 JOYCE LA, 1995, J BIOGEOGR, V22, P703 JOYCE LJ, 2001, CLIMAGE CHANGE IMPAC, CH17 LEMMEN DS, 2004, CLIMATE CHANGE IMPAC MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 PEREZGARCIA J, 1997, EC CARBON SEQUESTRAT SCHLESINGER ME, 1997, PUBLICATION CLIMATE SHUGART H, 2003, FORESTS GLOBAL CLIMA SOHNGEN B, 1998, AM ECON REV, V88, P689 SOHNGEN B, 2001, GLOBAL WARMING AM EC, CH4 SOHNGEN B, 2001, J AGR RESOUR ECON, V26, P326 NR 17 TC 3 J9 FOREST CHRON BP 669 EP 674 PY 2005 PD SEP-OCT VL 81 IS 5 GA 979VW UT ISI:000232974100026 ER PT J AU Woodward, A Hales, S Litidamu, N Phillips, D Martin, J TI Protecting human health in a changing world: the role of social and economic development SO BULLETIN OF THE WORLD HEALTH ORGANIZATION LA English DT Article C1 Wellington Sch Med, Dept Publ Hlth, Sch Med, Wellington S, New Zealand. Univ Otago, Wellington Sch Med, Wellington, New Zealand. Fiji Sch Med, Sch Publ Hlth & Primary Care, Suva, Fiji. WHO, Dept Hlth Sustainable Dev, CH-1211 Geneva, Switzerland. RP Woodward, A, Wellington Sch Med, Dept Publ Hlth, Sch Med, POB 7343, Wellington S, New Zealand. AB The biological and physical environment of the planet is changing at an unprecedented rate as a result of human activity, and these changes may have an enormous impact on human health. One of the goals of human development is to protect health in the face of rapid environmental change, but we often fail to do this. The aim in th is paper is to distinguish between socioeconomic aspects of development that a re likely to be protective and those that are likely to increase vulnerability (the capacity for loss resulting from environmental change). Examples include climate change in the Pacific. We conclude that protecting human health in a changing world requires us to take steps to minimize harmful change wherever possible, and at the same time to be prepared for surprises. The goals of mitigation (reducing or preventing change) and adaptation (response to change) are not mutually exclusive. in fact, steps to make populations more resilient in the face of change are often similar to those that are needed to lighten the load on the environment. We need social policies that convert economic growth into human development. Wider application of sustainable development concepts is part of the solution. In particular, there is a need to promote health as an essential asset of poor and vulnerable populations. it is their key to productivity and to surviving shocks; it is also the key to achieving broader development goals such as universal education. For these reasons it is in the interests of all sectors - economic, social and environmental - to play their particular roles in protecting and improving health. CR *ESCAP, 1997, ESCAP POP DAT SHEET *INT FED RED CROSS, 1996, WORLD DIS REP 1996 *INT FED RED CROSS, 1999, WORLD DIS REP *STAT NZ, 1999, INC *UN DEV PROGR, 1999, HUM DEV REP 1999 *US BUR STAT, 1999, FIJ CENS POP HOUS *WHO, 1997, WHO REG PUBL E, V72 *WORLD BANK, 1999, WORLD DEV REP 1999 2 *WORLD COMM ENV DE, 1987, OUR COMM FUT DANIELS N, 1999, DAEDALUS, V128, P215 DENNIS R, 2000, RECENT OUTBREAK FIRE DOWNING TE, 1999, DROUGHT HALES S, 1999, ENVIRON HEALTH PERSP, V107, P99 HALES S, 1999, LANCET, V354, P2047 HEARNDEN M, 1999, NZ PUBLIC HLTH REPOR, V6, P25 KALKSTEIN LS, 1997, ENVIRON HEALTH PERSP, V105, P84 KAPLAN G, 1996, BRIT MED J, V312, P1004 KAWACHI I, 1999, HEALTH SERV RES 2, V34, P215 LEAKEY R, 1996, 6 EXTINCTION BIODIVE MCMICHAEL AJ, 1993, PLANETARY OVERLOAD G MUSTARD JF, 1996, HLTH SOCIAL ORG, P303 NIGG JM, 1995, WELLINGTON QUAKE CHA, P81 NIMURA N, 1999, CLIM RES, V12, P137 OKE TR, 1987, BOUNDARY LAYER CLIMA OLSTHOORN AA, 1999, CLIMATE CHANGE RISK, P221 PELLING M, 1998, J INT DEV, V10, P469 PELLING M, 1999, GEOFORUM, V30, P249 SCHWEITHELM J, 1998, OVERVIEW INDONESIAS SEN AK, 1981, POVERTY FAMINES ESSA, V1, P1 SEN AK, 2000, FAR E EC REV 0127 WATSON RT, 1998, REGIONAL IMPACTS CLI, V1, P1 WATSON RT, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, V1, P1 WESLEYSMITH T, 1992, CONTEMP PACIFIC, V4, P245 WOODS R, 1984, URBAN DIS MORTALITY, P19 WOODWARD A, IN PRESS J EPIDEMIOL WOODWARD A, 1998, CLIMATE RES, V11, P31 NR 36 TC 6 J9 BULL WHO BP 1148 EP 1155 PY 2000 VL 78 IS 9 GA 353FJ UT ISI:000089263900009 ER PT J AU Lobell, DB Field, CB Cahill, KN Bonfils, C TI Impacts of future climate change on California perennial crop yields: Model projections with climate and crop uncertainties SO AGRICULTURAL AND FOREST METEOROLOGY LA English DT Article C1 Lawrence Livermore Natl Lab, Energy & Environm Directorate, Livermore, CA 94550 USA. Carnegie Inst Washington, Dept Global Ecol, Stanford, CA 94305 USA. Stanford Univ, Interdisciplinary Grad Program Environm & Resourc, Stanford, CA 94305 USA. Univ Calif, Sch Nat Sci, Merced, CA 95346 USA. RP Lobell, DB, Lawrence Livermore Natl Lab, Energy & Environm Directorate, POB 808,L-103, Livermore, CA 94550 USA. AB Most research on the agricultural impacts of climate change has focused on the major annual crops, yet perennial cropping systems are less adaptable and thus potentially more susceptible to damage. In regions where perennial crops are economically and culturally important, improved assessments of yield responses to future climate are needed to prioritize adaptation strategies. These impact assessments, in turn, must rely on climate and crop models that contain often poorly defined uncertainties. We evaluated the impact of climate change on six major perennial crops in California: wine grapes, almonds, table grapes, oranges, walnuts, and avocados. Outputs from multiple climate models were used to evaluate climate uncertainty, while multiple statistical crop models, derived by resampling historical databases, were used to address crop response uncertainties. We find that, despite these uncertainties, climate change in California is very likely to put downward pressure on yields of almonds, walnuts, avocados, and table grapes by 2050. Without CO2 fertilization or adaptation measures, projected losses range from 0 to > 40% depending on the crop and the trajectory of climate change. Climate change uncertainty generally had a larger impact on projections than crop model uncertainty, although the latter was substantial for several crops. Opportunities for expansion into cooler regions were identified, but this adaptation would require substantial investments and may be limited by non-climatic constraints. Given the long time scales for growth and production of orchards and vineyards (similar to 30 years), climate change should be an important factor in selecting perennial varieties and deciding whether and where perennials should be planted. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. CR *CA AGR STAT SERV, 2004, CAL AGR COMM DAT *CAL AGR STAT SERV, 2004, CAL AGR STAT 2003 OV *IPCC, 2001, INT PAN CLIM CHANG W ADAMS RM, 1990, NATURE, V345, P219 AGGARWAL PK, 2002, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V52, P331 AINSWORTH EA, 2005, NEW PHYTOL, V165, P351 BINDI M, 1996, CLIMATE RES, V7, P213 BINDI M, 2001, EUR J AGRON, V14, P145 BURTON I, 2005, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V70, P191 CHALLINOR AJ, 2003, J APPL METEOROL, V42, P175 EFRON B, 1983, AM STAT, V37, P36 FISCHER G, 2005, PHILOS T ROY SOC B, V360, P2067 HAYHOE K, 2004, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V101, P12422 IDSO SB, 2001, ENVIRON EXP BOT, V46, P147 JONES GV, 2005, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V73, P319 KOSKI V, 1996, EUPHYTICA, V92, P235 LOBELL DB, IN PRESS CLIM CHANGE MAURER EP, 2005, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V32 MEARNS LO, 1999, J GEOPHYS RES-ATMOS, V104, P6623 MJELDE JW, 2000, J APPL METEOROL, V39, P67 NAKICENOVIC N, 2000, SPECIAL REPORT EMISS PARRY ML, 2005, PHILOS T ROY SOC B, V360, P2125 PARRY ML, 2004, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V14, P53 REILLY JM, 1999, WORLD BANK RES OBSER, V14, P295 REILLY JM, 2003, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V57, P43 ROSENZWEIG C, 1994, NATURE, V367, P133 ROSENZWEIG C, 1998, CLIMATE CHANGE GLOBA SCHNEIDER SH, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P203 SNYDER MA, 2002, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V29 TUBIELLO FN, 2002, CLIMATE RES, V20, P259 WHITE MA, 2006, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V103, P11217 WOOD AW, 2002, J GEOPHYS RES-ATMOS, V107 NR 32 TC 0 J9 AGR FOREST METEOROL BP 208 EP 218 PY 2006 PD DEC 20 VL 141 IS 2-4 GA 128PG UT ISI:000243669500010 ER PT J AU Belliveau, S Smit, B Bradshaw, B TI Multiple exposures and dynamic vulnerability: Evidence from the grape industry in the Okanagan Valley, Canada SO GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS LA English DT Review C1 Univ Guelph, Dept Geog, Guelph, ON N1G 2W1, Canada. RP Belliveau, S, Univ Guelph, Dept Geog, Guelph, ON N1G 2W1, Canada. AB This paper assesses the vulnerability of grape growers and winery operators in the Okanagan Valley, British Columbia to climate variability and change, in the context of other sources of risk. Through interviews and focus groups, producers identified the climatic and non-climatic risks relevant to them and the strategies employed to manage these risks. The results show that the presence of multiple exposures affects the way in which producers are vulnerable to climate change. Producers are vulnerable to conditions that not only affect crop yield, but also affect their ability to compete in or sell to the market. Their sensitivity to these conditions is influenced in part by institutional factors such as trade liberalization and a "markup-free delivery" policy. Producers' ability to adapt or cope with these risks varies depending on such factors as the availability of resources and technology, and access to government programmes. Producers will likely face challenges associated with the supply of water for irrigation due to a combination of climatic changes and changing demographics in the Okanagan Valley, which in turn affect their ability to adapt to climatic conditions. Finally, adaptations made by producers can change the nature of the operation and its vulnerability, demonstrating the dynamic nature of vulnerability. (C) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 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CHANGE, V43, P601 WILHELMI OV, 2002, NAT HAZARDS, V25, P37 WILSON K, 1996, THESIS U BRIT COLUMB WINKLER JA, 2002, J GREAT LAKES RES, V28, P608 WINTER M, 2000, J RURAL STUD, V16, P47 YOHE GW, 2002, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V12, P25 ZIERVOGEL G, 2003, AREA, V35, P403 NR 128 TC 0 J9 GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANGE BP 364 EP 378 PY 2006 PD OCT VL 16 IS 4 GA 105MG UT ISI:000242033600006 ER PT J AU Luo, QY Bellotti, W Williams, M Bryan, B TI Potential impact of climate change on wheat yield in South Australia SO AGRICULTURAL AND FOREST METEOROLOGY LA English DT Article C1 Univ Adelaide, Dept Geog & Environm Studies, Adelaide, SA 5005, Australia. Univ Adelaide, Sch Agr & Wine, Madison, WI 53711 USA. CSIRO, Policy & Econ Res Unit, Glen Osmond, SA 5064, Australia. RP Luo, QY, Univ Adelaide, Dept Geog & Environm Studies, Adelaide, SA 5005, Australia. AB Refined and improved climate change scenarios have been applied in this study to quantify the possible impacts of future climate change on South Australian wheat yield with probability attached. This study used the APSIM-Wheat module and information drawn from the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) and nine climate models for 2080. A wheat yield response surface has been constructed within 80 climate change scenarios. The most likely wheat yield changes have been defined under combinations of changes in regional rainfall, regional temperature and atmospheric CO2, concentration (CO2). Median grain yield is projected to decrease across all locations from 13.5 to 32% under the most likely climate change scenarios. This has economic and social implications from local to national levels. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. CR *CSIRO, 1996, CLIM CHANG SCEN AUST *CSIRO, 2001, CLIM CHANG PROJ AUST *IPCC, 2000, SPEC REP EM SCEN SUM MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 BRKLACICH M, 1995, ASA SPEC PUBL, P147 DELECOLLE R, 1995, ASA SPEC PUBL, V59, P241 HOWDEN SM, 1999, 9913 CSIRO, P24 HOWDEN SM, 1999, 9914 CSIRO AUSTR GRE, P51 HOWDEN SM, 1999, GLOBAL CHANGE IMPACT HOWDEN SM, 1999, MODSIM99 P INT C MOD JONES RN, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P403 KEATING BA, 2003, EUR J AGRON, V18, P267 LUO Q, 2003, THESIS U ADELAIDE LUO QY, 2003, AGR SYST, V77, P173 MEARNS LO, 1995, ASA SPEC PUBL, V59, P123 MENZHULIN GV, 1995, ASA SPEC PUBL, P275 REYENGA PJ, 1997, MODSIM 99 P INT C MO REYENGA PJ, 1999, ENVIRON MODELL SOFTW, V14, P297 SEINO H, 1995, ASA SPEC PUBL, P293 SMITH JB, 1996, VULNERABILITY ADAPTI, P366 TUBIELLO FN, 1995, AGR SYST, V49, P135 YUNUSA IAM, 2004, AUST J EXP AGR, V44, P787 NR 22 TC 0 J9 AGR FOREST METEOROL BP 273 EP 285 PY 2005 PD OCT 3 VL 132 IS 3-4 GA 984MP UT ISI:000233309300009 ER PT J AU Lowe, TD Lorenzoni, I TI Danger is all around: Eliciting expert perceptions for managing climate change through a mental models approach SO GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS LA English DT Article C1 Univ E Anglia, Sch Environm Sci, Zuckerman Inst Connect Environm Res, Tryndall Ctr Climate Change Res, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. Univ E Anglia, Sch Environm Sci, Zuckerman Inst Connect Environm Res, Ctr Environm Risk, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. RP Lowe, TD, Univ E Anglia, Sch Environm Sci, Zuckerman Inst Connect Environm Res, Tryndall Ctr Climate Change Res, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. AB It has long been acknowledged that understandings of risk are influenced by external or 'objective' assessments, and by internal or 'subjective' value judgements. In-depth research has been undertaken on how lay people perceive climate change and related risks, whereas work on expert opinions is more limited. This paper reports on 22 'expert' interpretations elicited through a mental models approach, and encapsulated in a 'meta'-influence diagram, denoting three conceptualisations of danger in relation to climate change: (i) human influence upon the climate system; (ii) impacts upon natural and human communities; and (iii) threat to the status quo, especially in the form of mitigation measures and related costs. These conceptualisations raise questions about how experts bring to bear their knowledge, values and understanding of climatic and social systems in articulating such discourses. This paper also discusses the implications of such diverse perspectives on managing climate change. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR ARNELL NW, 2005, RISK ANAL, V25, P1419 BARKE RP, 1993, RISK ANAL, V13, P425 BARKER T, 2005, 77 U E ANGL SCH ENV BEHRENS EG, 1983, TEX LAW REV, V62, P361 BICKERSTAFF K, 2004, UNPUB PUBLIC PERCEPT BLACK R, 2005, BBC NEWS ONLINE 0213 BORD RJ, 1998, CLIMATE RES, V11, P75 BOSTROM A, 1994, RISK ANAL, V14, P959 BRAY D, 1999, B AM METEOROL SOC, V80, P439 BRAY D, 2001, CLIMATE RES, V19, P69 BREAKWELL GM, 2001, J RISK RES, V4, P341 BRECHIN SR, 2003, INT J SOCIOLOGY SOCI, V23, P106 BURTON I, 2002, CLIM POLICY, V2, P145 CALDEIRA K, 2003, SCIENCE, V299, P2052 COOK G, 2004, DISCOURSE SOC, V15, P433 COOKE RM, 2004, J RISK RES, V7, P643 COX P, 2004, RISK ANAL, V23, P311 DESSAI S, 2004, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V64, P11 DUNLAP RE, 1998, INT SOCIOL, V13, P473 ELZINGA A, 1997, AMBIO, V26, P72 EPSTEIN S, 1994, AM PSYCHOL, V49, P709 FEIGENBAUM EA, 1979, EXPERT SYSTEMS MICRO FINUCANE ML, 2006, J RISK RES, V9, P141 FOUCAULT M, 1982, M FOUCAULT STRUCTURA, P208 GERRARD S, 2000, ENV SCI ENV MANAGEME, P435 GLOVER J, 2005, GUARDIAN UNLIMI 0621 JOHNSON C, 2003, CRISES CATALYSTS ADA KASPERSON RE, 1988, RISK ANAL, V8, P177 KATES RW, 2003, ENVIRONMENT, V45, P12 KEMPTON W, 1991, SOC NATUR RESOUR, V4, P331 KEMPTON W, 1993, ANNU REV ENERG ENV, V18, P217 LOMBORG B, 2001, SKEPTICAL ENV MEASUR LORENZONI I, IN PRESS PUBLIC VIEW LORENZONI I, 2003, THESIS U E ANGLIA NO LORENZONI I, 2005, 28 U E ANGL SCH ENV LORENZONI I, 2005, RISK ANAL, V25, P1387 LORENZONI I, 2006, J RISK RES, V9, P265 LOWE T, IN PRESS PUBLIC UNDE MACMILLAN DC, 2006, ANIM CONSERV, V9, P11 MASTRANDREA M, 2001, CLIM POLICY, V1, P433 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 MCDANIELS T, 1996, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V6, P159 MORGAN MG, 1990, UNCERTAINTY GUIDE DE MORGAN MG, 1995, ENVIRON SCI TECHNOL, V29, P468 MORGAN MG, 2001, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V49, P279 MORGAN MG, 2002, RISK COMMUNICATION M NICHOLSONCOLE S, 2004, THESIS U E ANGLIA NO NORDHAUS WD, 1994, AM SCI, V82, P45 ONEILL BC, 2002, SCIENCE, V296, P1971 OPPENHEIMER M, 2005, RISK ANAL, V5, P1399 PALMGREN CR, 2004, ENVIRON SCI TECHNOL, V38, P6441 PARRY ML, 1996, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V6, P1 PIDGEON N, 1992, RISK ANAL PERCEPTION, CH5 PIDGEON N, 2003, SOCIAL AMPLIFICATION PIDGEON NF, 1998, ACTA PSYCHOL, V68, P355 POORTINGA W, 2003, PUBLIC PERCEPTIONS R RAHMSTORF S, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V46, P247 RAYNER S, 1997, NATURE, V390, P332 READ D, 1994, RISK ANAL, V14, P971 RODERICK P, 2004, GUARDIAN NEWSPA 1215, P12 SCHNEIDER SH, 2003, JUST AD CLIM CHANG I SJOBERG L, 2000, RISK ANAL, V20, P1 SLOVIC P, 2000, PERCEPTION RISK SLOVIC P, 2004, RISK ANAL, V24, P311 TOYNBEE P, 2005, GUARDIAN UNLIMI 0525 TRAN M, 2004, GUARDIAN UNLIMI 0928 VONKRAUSS MPK, 2004, RISK ANAL, V24, P1515 WATSON RT, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 WRIGHT G, 1987, DECIS SUPPORT SYST, V3, P13 NR 69 TC 0 J9 GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANGE BP 131 EP 146 PY 2007 PD FEB VL 17 IS 1 GA 149YG UT ISI:000245182200013 ER PT J AU Niemeyer, S Petts, J Hobson, K TI Rapid climate change and society: Assessing responses and thresholds SO RISK ANALYSIS LA English DT Article C1 Australian Natl Univ, Res Sch Social Sci, Canberra, ACT 0200, Australia. Univ Birmingham, Sch Geog Earth & Environm Sci, Birmingham B15 2TT, W Midlands, England. Australian Natl Univ, Dept Human Geog, Res Sch Pacific & Asian Studies, Canberra, ACT 0200, Australia. RP Niemeyer, S, Australian Natl Univ, Res Sch Social Sci, Canberra, ACT 0200, Australia. AB Assessing the social risks associated with climate change requires an understanding of how humans will respond because it affects how well societies will adapt. In the case of rapid or dangerous climate change, of particular interest is the potential for these responses to cross thresholds beyond which they become maladaptive. To explore the possibility of such thresholds, a series of climate change scenarios were presented to U.K. participants whose subjective responses were recorded via interviews and surveyed using Q methodology. The results indicate an initially adaptive response to climate warming followed by a shift to maladaptation as the magnitude of change increases. Beyond this threshold, trust in collective action and institutions was diminished, negatively impacting adaptive capacity. Climate cooling invoked a qualitatively different response, although this may be a product of individuals being primed for warming because it has dominated public discourse. The climate change scenarios used in this research are severe by climatological standards. In reality, the observed responses might occur at a lower rate of change. Whatever the case, analysis of subjectivity has revealed potential for maladaptive human responses, constituting a dangerous or rapid climate threshold within the social sphere. CR *NRC, 2002, ABRU CLIM CHANG IN S ADGER WN, 2000, PROG HUM GEOG, V24, P347 ADGER WN, 2001, LIVING ENV CHANGE SO BANDURA A, 1989, ANN CHILD DEV, V6, P1 BASHER RE, 2001, MITIGATION ADAPTATIO, V6, P227 BATTERBURY S, 2001, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V11, P1 BECK U, 1994, REFLEXIVE MODERNISAT BERK RA, 1999, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V41, P413 BOHLE HG, 1994, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V4, P37 BRONNIMANN S, 2002, CLIMATE RES, V22, P87 BROWN SR, 1970, PSYCHOL REC, V20, P179 BROWN SR, 1980, POLIT SUBJECTIVITY A BROWNE RB, 1993, J AM CULTURE, V16, P91 BULKELEY H, 2000, PUBLIC UNDERST SCI, V9, P313 CARTER TR, 1994, IPCC TECHN GUID ASS COTTLE CE, 1980, OPERANT SUBJECTIVITY, V3, P58 DESSAI S, 2003, DEFINING EXPERIENCIN DIETZ T, 2003, SCIENCE, V302, P1907 DUNLAP RE, 1996, KOLNER Z SOZIOLOGIE, V36, P193 ELSTER J, 1986, MULTIPLE SELF GOWDA MVR, 1997, B AM METEOROL SOC, V78, P2232 HANDMER JW, 2001, MITIGATION ADAPTATIO, V6, P267 HANNIGAN JA, 1995, ENV SOCIOLOGY SOCIAL HARDIN R, 1993, POLIT SOC, V21, P505 HARRE R, 1994, DISCURSIVE MIND HARRISON PA, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE NATUR HULME M, 2003, PHILOS T ROY SOC A, V361, P2001 KEMPTON W, 1991, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V1, P183 KLEIN RJT, 2001, MITIGATION ADAPTATIO, V6, P189 KROSNICK J, 1995, INT STUD QUART, V39, P535 KROSNICK JA, 2000, PUBLIC UNDERST SCI, V9, P239 LEARY NA, 2001, MITIGATION ADAPTATIO, V6, P307 LUHMANN N, 2000, REALITY MASS MEDIA MAZMANIAN D, 1981, ENVIRON BEHAV, V13, P361 MAZUR A, 1998, INT SOCIOL, V13, P457 MONROE AD, 1979, AM POLITICS Q, V7, P3 NIEMEYER S, 2004, 0401 U BIRM CTR ENV PALUTIKOF JP, 2004, CLIMATE RES, V26, P43 PARSON EA, 2003, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V57, P9 PELLING M, IN PRESS GLOBAL ENV PELLING M, 1998, J INT DEV, V10, P469 PERRINGS C, 2003, PHILOS T ROY SOC A, V361, P2043 PETTS J, 2001, 3292001 RHMSTORF S, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V4, P247 RIZZELLO S, 2002, CONSTITUTIONAL POLIT, V13, P197 RYDIN Y, 1999, ENVIRON VALUE, V8, P467 SCHWARTZ SH, 1981, ALTRUISM HELP BEHAV, P189 STEHR N, 1997, CLIMATE RES, V8, P163 STEPHENSON W, 1953, STUDY BEHAV Q TECHNI TOTH FL, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V46, P225 UNGAR S, 2000, PUBLIC UNDERST SCI, V9, P297 UZZELL DL, 2000, J ENVIRON PSYCHOL, V26, P307 VELLEMAN PF, 1993, AM STAT, V47, P1 VELLINGA M, 2002, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V54, P251 WILLIAMSON OE, 2000, J ECON LIT, V38, P595 NR 55 TC 1 J9 RISK ANAL BP 1443 EP 1456 PY 2005 PD DEC VL 25 IS 6 GA 996YF UT ISI:000234211500008 ER PT J AU Lopez, MV Mendoza, TC Genio, ER TI Farmers' adaptive strategies in rice-based farming systems in Masantol, Pampanga, Philippines SO JOURNAL OF SUSTAINABLE AGRICULTURE LA English DT Article C1 Univ Philippines Los Banos, Dept Agron, Coll Agr, Laguna 4030, Philippines. World Bank, Washington, DC 20433 USA. RP Lopez, MV, 11834 St Andrews Pl, Loma Linda, CA 92354 USA. AB A study was conducted to determine the main constraints in rice-based farming systems: their causes and adverse effects as influenced by El Nino and La Nina phenomena and identify farmers' strategies to alleviate those constraints. Two constraints in the study area were flooding and saline water intrusion caused by various biophysical factors. The constraints resulted in interrelated problems of low yield and crop intensity, high risk of failure, seasonal availability of employment, high cost of production, and ultimately in low income to farmers. To overcome constraints, alleviate problems and increase potentials in rice-based farming systems, farmers evolved the following adaptive strategies: (1) empoldering; (2) installation of peripheral nets around the farm; (3) pumping out of water from the rice fields; (4) raising adaptable aquatic species of animals; (5) utilization of locally available biological resources; and (6) high level of farmer to farmer communication. CR 1990, MUNICIPAL DEV PLAN *CSR FAO, 1983, AGOFINS76006 MAOUNDP BRIGHT M, 1995, ILEIA NEWSLETTER DEC, P10 FATIMSON T, 1996, ILEIA NEWSLETTER DEC, P24 MCCLUNG G, 1985, SOIL SCI, V139, P405 MCCORMICK RW, 1980, SOIL BIOL BIOCHEM, V12, P153 OREJAS T, 1998, PHILIPPINE DAILY INQ, V13, P16 RAO DLN, 1994, SALINITY MANAGEMENT, P34 SINDHU MA, 1967, PLANT SOIL, V27, P468 SINGH BR, 1969, SOIL SCI SOC AM J, V33, P557 SUYARDONO B, 1990, SURJAN SYSTEM SUSTAI WESTERMAN RL, 1974, SOIL SCI SOC AM J, V38, P602 WRIGLEY G, 1981, TROPICAL AGR DEV PRO NR 13 TC 0 J9 J SUSTAINABLE AGR BP 5 EP 25 PY 2004 VL 24 IS 1 GA 842JC UT ISI:000222999100002 ER PT J AU Mimura, N TI Vulnerability of island countries in the South Pacific to sea level rise and climate change SO CLIMATE RESEARCH LA English DT Article C1 Ibaraki Univ, Ctr Water Environm Studies, Ibaraki, Osaka 3168511, Japan. RP Mimura, N, Ibaraki Univ, Ctr Water Environm Studies, Ibaraki, Osaka 3168511, Japan. AB An assessment of the vulnerability to sea level rise and climate change was performed for island countries in the South Pacific (Tonga, Fiji, Samoa, and Tuvalu) under the collaboration of Japanese experts and the South Pacific Regional Environment Programme. A combination of experience-based and scientific methods were developed to reveal the overall vulnerability of and possible impacts on the coastal zone sectors. The studies identified the common impacts on and vulnerability of these countries. Inundation and flooding are the common threats to these islands because, of their low-lying setting; the problem is exacerbated by the social trends of population growth and migration to main islands, in particular to the capital cities. Other threats include beach erosion, saltwater intrusion, and impacts on the infrastructure and coastal society. For the island countries, the response to sea level rise and climate change focuses on adaptation rather than on reduction of greenhouse gas emissions (that is, mitigation). Based on the results of the vulnerability assessment, the concept of and options for adaptation are also discussed. CR *IPCC CZMS, 1991, COMM METH ASS VULN S *IPCC WG3, 1990, CLIM CHANG IPCC RESP WATSON RT, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, V1, P1 FIFITA P, 1992, P IPCC CZMS WORKSH R, P119 KAY R, 1993, ASSESSMENT COASTAL V KAY RC, 1993, VULNERABILITY ASSESS, P213 MACIVER DC, 1998, ADAPTATION CLIMATE V MIMURA N, 1997, J COASTAL RES, V24, P117 MIMURA N, 1998, J COASTAL RES, V14, P37 NUNN PD, 1993, ASSESSMENT COASTAL V NUNN PD, 1994, ASSESSMENT COASTAL V NUNN PD, 1996, COASTAL VULNERABILIT NUNN PD, 1997, J COASTAL RES, V24, P133 OHNO E, 1996, P 5 WORLD C REG SCI SEM G, 1996, COASTAL VULNERABILIT YAMADA K, 1995, J GLOBAL ENV ENG, V1, P101 NR 16 TC 0 J9 CLIMATE RES BP 137 EP 143 PY 1999 PD AUG 27 VL 12 IS 2-3 GA V3096 UT ISI:000171723000011 ER PT J AU Toman, MA TI Values in the economics of climate change SO ENVIRONMENTAL VALUES LA English DT Article C1 RAND Corp, Washington, DC USA. RP Toman, M, RAND Corp, Washington, DC USA. AB Economics has played an important role in assessing climate change impacts, and the effects of various individual and policy response strategies. Proponents of a key role for economics in analysis of climate change policies and goals argue that its capacity to incorporate and compare a variety of costs and benefits makes it uniquely useful for normative assessment. Critics of economic analysis of climate change have questioned not only its empirical capacities, but also its fundamental usefulness given some of the important but often implicit assumptions on which it is based. After reviewing this debate and its implications for public policy on climate change, the paper sketches a way in which more technical economic analysis and public dialogue might be combined. CR *UNFCCC, 1999, UNEPIUC9910 UNFCCC *UNFCCC, 1999, UNEPIUC992 UNFCCC AZAR C, 1996, ECOL ECON, V19, P169 BARRETT S, 2003, ENV STATECRAFT STRAT BLACKMAN A, 2003, THEORY PRACTICE COMM, P199 GARDINER SM, 2004, ETHICS, V114, P555 HOWARTH RB, 1996, CONTEMP ECON POLICY, V14, P100 HOWARTH RB, 2005, PERSPECTIVES CLIMATE, P99 JAMIESON D, 2005, PERSPECTIVES CLIMATE, P217 MANNE AS, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE INTEG MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 MENDELSOHN R, 1994, AM ECON REV, V84, P753 MENDELSOHN R, 1999, GREENING GLOBAL WARM METZ B, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 NORDHAUS WD, 1993, RESOUR ENERGY ECON, V15, P27 NORTON BG, 1992, UNITY ENV NORTON BG, 1997, LAND ECON, V73, P553 PORTNEY PR, 1999, DISCOUNTING INTEGENE ROSE A, 1993, RESOUR ENERGY ECON, V15, P117 ROUGHGARDEN T, 1999, ENERG POLICY, V27, P415 SCHELLING TC, 1997, FOREIGN AFF, V76, P8 SCHELLING TC, 2002, FOREIGN AFF, V81, P2 SPASH CL, 2005, GREENHOUSE EC VALUES TOMAN MA, 1994, LAND ECON, V70, P399 TOMAN MA, 1999, VALUATION ENV, P59 TOMAN MA, 2004, PAINTING WHITE HOUSE TOMAN MA, 2005, PERSPECTIVES CLIMATE, P75 WEITZMAN ML, 1998, J ENVIRON ECON MANAG, V36, P201 WEYANT J, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, P366 WIGLEY TML, 1996, NATURE, V379, P240 NR 30 TC 3 J9 ENVIRON VALUE BP 365 EP 379 PY 2006 PD AUG VL 15 IS 3 GA 089VG UT ISI:000240908900011 ER PT J AU Ruth, M Lin, AC TI Regional energy demand and adaptations to climate change: Methodology and application to the state of Maryland, USA SO ENERGY POLICY LA English DT Article C1 Sch Publ Policy, Environm Policy Program, Hyattsville, MD 20782 USA. RP Ruth, M, Sch Publ Policy, Environm Policy Program, 3139 Van Munching Hall, Hyattsville, MD 20782 USA. AB This paper explores potential impacts of climate change on natural gas, electricity and heating oil use by the residential and commercial sectors in the state of Maryland, USA. Time series analysis is used to quantify historical temperature-energy demand relationships. A dynamic computer model uses those relationships to simulate future energy demand under a range of energy prices, temperatures and other drivers. The results indicate that climate exerts a comparably small signal on future energy demand, but that the combined climate and non-climate-induced changes in energy demand may pose significant challenges to policy and investment decisions in the state. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *EIA, EL POW MONTHL *EIA, NAT GAS MONTHL *EIA, PETR MARK MONTHL *EIA, 1995, DOEEIA0555952 *EIA, 1999, LOOK RES EN CONS 199 *EIA, 2001, ANN EN REV 2000 *EIA, 2001, STAT EN DAT REP 1999 *EPA, 1998, 236F980071 US PEA OF MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 *MAR DEP PLANN, 2004, HIST PROJ TOT POP MA *NCDC, 2004, ENV INF SER C, V23 *NOAA, 2003, SUNR SUNS CALC *US BUR EC AN, 2002, TOT FULL TIM PART TI *US CENS BUR, 2004, STAT POP EST *US GLOB CHANG RES, 2000, US NAT ASS POT IMP C AMATO A, 2005, IN PRESS CLIMATIC CH BADRI MA, 1992, ENERGY, V17, P725 BARRON E, 2002, POTENTIAL CONSEQUENC BELZER DB, 1996, ENERG SOURCE, V18, P177 BOUSTEAD I, 1994, CONSERV RECYCLING, V12, P121 CARTALIS C, 2001, ENERG CONVERS MANAGE, V42, P1647 DEDEAR R, 2001, INT J BIOMETEOROL, V45, P100 GRECO S, 67 IPCC WMO UNEP JAGER J, 1983, CLIMATE ENERGY SYSTE LAKSHMANAN TR, 1980, REGIONAL SCI URBAN E, V10, P371 LAM JC, 1998, ENERG CONVERS MANAGE, V39, P623 LEHMAN RL, 1994, J APPL METEOROL, V33, P96 LINDER KP, 1990, POTENTIAL EFFECTS GL MORRIS M, 1999, IMPACT TEMPERATURE T MORRISON W, 1998, IMPACTS CLIMATE CHAN MURPHY R, 2002, ENVIRON HIST, V8, P43 NALL D, 1979, ASHRAE T, V85, P1 PARDO A, 2002, ENERG ECON, V24, P55 PRESSMAN N, 1995, NO CITYSCAPE LINKING ROSENTHAL DH, 1995, ENERGY J, V16 ROSENZWEIG C, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE GLOBA RUTH M, 2001, WORLD RESOURCES REV, V13, P106 SAILOR DJ, 1997, ENERGY, V22, P987 SAILOR DJ, 1997, WORLD RESOURCE REV, V9, P301 SAILOR DJ, 1998, ENERGY, V23, P91 SAILOR DJ, 2001, ENERGY, V26, P645 SCOTT MJ, 1994, ENERG SOURCE, V16, P317 SEGAL M, 1992, J APPL METEOROL, V31, P1492 WARREN HE, 1981, J APPL METEOROL, V20, P1431 WILBANKS TJ, 1999, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V43, P601 YAN YY, 1998, ENERGY, V23, P17 NR 46 TC 0 J9 ENERG POLICY BP 2820 EP 2833 PY 2006 PD NOV VL 34 IS 17 GA 100CG UT ISI:000241644200018 ER PT J AU Le Treut, H TI Modeling future climate changes: certainties and uncertainties SO HOUILLE BLANCHE-REVUE INTERNATIONALE DE L EAU LA French DT Article C1 Inst Pierre Simon Laplace, Meteorol Dynam Lab, Paris, France. RP Le Treut, H, Inst Pierre Simon Laplace, Meteorol Dynam Lab, Paris, France. AB Since the middle of the nineteenth century the composition of the Earth atmosphere has begun to change in a manner which is unprecedented over the Quaternary era. The carbon dioxide concentration, for example had been oscillating between extremal values of 180 ppm (during glaciations) and 280 ppm (during interglacial eras). It had stayed almost constant over the last 10 000 years, but has now reached a value of 360 ppm, much of the increase taking place during the last decades. Similarly methane concentration has been multiplied by more than a factor 2, and other gases (nitrous oxides) have also experienced an exponential growth. There is no doubt that this situation is the result of human activities : energy consumption, industrial or agricultural activities, deforestation. As most of these gases have a long residence time in the atmosphere, where they tend to accumulate, we may expect the level of these perturbations to increase strongly throughout the 21st century. To diagnose the possible impact of these trends in terms of climate impact, the only available tools are numerical models. These numerical models constitute in a way virtural planets, where the atmospheric and oceanic flow, the continental hydrology, and their interactions, are represented through physical equations. Models are not a perfect representation of the Earth system, and they will never be. We also cannot expect the climate system to be fully predictable. But models are strongly constrained by conservation equations, they behave in many aspects like the real planet and reproduce quite realistically the mean geographical and seasonal fluctuations of the precipitation, the temperature or the winds as well as some of the most important natural fluctuations at intraseasonal or interannual (El Nino, North Atlantic Oscillation) time scales. So models are useful to describe a range of possible future climates Present projections indicate in all cases, a significant change, with a global surface warming in 2 100 between 2degreesC and 6degreesC : half of the uncertainty is due to the economic projections, half is due to the complex behavior of the climate system (in particular : clouds). It is striking that the lower bound of these estimates already represents an important perturbation. The changes in temperature would induce changes in precipitation rates or areas, in storminess or cyclone tracks - the regional consequences are however difficult to predict in details. We may expect the sea level to rise from 20 to 90 cm. Changes in a more distant future (2 centuries) might be much larger, although such projections are less reliable. An important feature of the changes to come may be their partially unpredictable character : many of the local events accompanying a global climate change will arise as surprises. In that sense the rate of change will be the primary factor of danger. And if it is probably too late to stop climate modification, there is still time to favor a situation where adaptation to its impacts will be easier. CR FRIEDLINGSTEIN P, 2001, UNPUB GEOPHYSICAL RE HOUGHTON JT, 1994, CLIMATE CHANGE 1994 HOUHGTON JT, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 LETREUT, 2001, 18 IPSL MANABE S, 1994, J CLIMATE, V7, P5 NR 5 TC 0 J9 HOUILLE BLANCHE BP 69 EP 72 PY 2002 IS 8 GA 650TN UT ISI:000181279600012 ER PT J AU Winter, G TI The asynchrony of society, nature, and law SO GAIA-ECOLOGICAL PERSPECTIVES FOR SCIENCE AND SOCIETY LA German DT Article C1 Univ Bremen, FEU, D-28203 Bremen, Germany. RP Winter, G, Univ Bremen, FEU, Postfach 33 04 40, D-28203 Bremen, Germany. AB The abstraction of the modern mind from societal time structures has often been argued as being detrimental to life quality. This article aims at extending the discussion to the time structures of the natural environment. Linear and cyclical time structures in nature are stressed by man's forcing of evolutionary processes and overloading of material cycles. Natural internal distortions and external factors cause catastrophic sequences and are supplemented by human impact. The article analyzes such asynchronisms and proceeds to ask what institutions, and, more specifically, whether the legal system, would be capable of alerting civilization to the resulting risks and induce society to react appropriately. With the principles of precaution, sustainability and liability the law has indeed engendered instruments of slowing down, adaptation to natural cycles, and prevention of catastrophic trajectories thereby countervailing other legal rules that release the very dynamics of stress. However, the very process of legal intervention has a time pattern of its own and the slowness of international law-making, in particular, serves as a major obstacle to the timely reorientation of a society that is more respectful of natural time structures. Societal self-governance may help to find the proper balance with time, however, making regulatory systems more time-conscious is indispensible to this effort. 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Coastal erosion in the tropics SO SINGAPORE JOURNAL OF TROPICAL GEOGRAPHY LA English DT Review C1 Natl Univ Singapore, Dept Geog, Singapore 0511, Singapore. RP Wong, PP, Natl Univ Singapore, Dept Geog, Singapore 0511, Singapore. AB From a physical geography perspective, tropical coasts are characterised by coral reefs, mangroves and carbonate beaches on atolls and low reef islands. They face threats not only from sea level rise, but also from human activities that destroy mangroves, degrade coral reefs and accelerate beach erosion. Physical conditions in the tropics are suitable for the ideal tourist beach. Conceptually, the tourist coast can be considered as the integration of a physical system (the coast) and a human system (tourism). Studies have been carried out on various types of tourist coasts in Southeast Asia. For many atoll island states, sea level rise is more than just a threat to their tourism; it also determines their survival. In recent years, assessments of their vulnerability and adaptation have favoured a more integrative approach of physical and human sciences. Hopefully, this should result in a better analytical tropical geography that could play an important role in reducing coastal erosion and assist the small island states. 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Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res PIK, D-14412 Potsdam, Germany. RP Kundzewicz, ZW, Polish Acad Sci, Res Ctr Agr & Forest Environm, Poznan, Poland. AB Recent floods have become more abundant and more destructive than ever in many regions of the globe. Destructive floods observed in the 1990s all over the world have led to record-high material damage, with total losses exceeding one billion US dollars in each of two dozen events. The immediate question emerges as to the extent to which a sensible rise in flood hazard and vulnerability can be linked to climate variability and change. Links between climate change and floods have found extensive coverage in the Third Assessment Report ( TAR) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Since the material on floods is scattered over many places of two large volumes of the TAR, the present contribution - a guided tour to floods in the IPCC TAR - may help a reader notice the different angles from which floods were considered in the IPCC report. As the water-holding capacity of the atmosphere grows with temperature, the potential for intensive precipitation also increases. Higher and more intense precipitation has been already observed and this trend is expected to increase in the future, warmer world. This is a sufficient condition for flood hazard to increase. Yet there are also other, non-climatic, factors exacerbating flood hazard. According to the IPCC TAR, the analysis of extreme events in both observations and coupled models is underdeveloped. It is interesting that the perception of floods in different parts of the TAR is largely different. Large uncertainty is emphasized in the parts dealing with the science of climate change, but in the impact chapters, referring to sectors and regions, growth in flood risk is taken for granted. Floods have been identified on short lists of key regional concerns. CR *IFRCRCS, 1997, WORLD DIS REP 1997 *MUN RE, 1997, FLOOD INS ANDRADE RFS, 1998, PHYSICA A, V254, P257 ARNELL NW, 1999, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHA S, V9, S31 BERZ G, 2001, CLIMATE 21 CENTURY C, P392 CHIEW FHS, 1993, INT J CLIMATOL, V13, P643 HOUGHTON JT, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 KUNDZEWICZ ZW, 1999, HYDROLOG SCI J, V44, P417 KUNDZEWICZ ZW, 1999, HYDROLOG SCI J, V44, P855 KUNDZEWICZ ZW, 2000, WATER INT, V25, P66 KUNDZEWICZ ZW, 2000, WCDMP45 WORLD CLIM P KUNDZEWICZ ZW, 2001, HYDROLOG SCI J, V46, P883 KUNDZEWICZ ZW, 2002, WATER INT, V27, P3 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 MILLY PCD, 2002, NATURE, V415, P514 PALMER TN, 2002, NATURE, V415, P512 PARRY ML, 2000, ASSESSMENT POTENTIAL SCHNUR R, 2002, NATURE, V415, P483 NR 18 TC 0 J9 NATURAL HAZARDS BP 111 EP 128 PY 2004 PD JAN VL 31 IS 1 GA 804MV UT ISI:000220303700006 ER PT J AU Dickens, P TI Linking the social and natural sciences: Is capital modifying human biology in its own image? SO SOCIOLOGY-THE JOURNAL OF THE BRITISH SOCIOLOGICAL ASSOCIATION LA English DT Article C1 Univ Cambridge, Fac Social & Polit Sci, Cambridge CB2 3RQ, England. RP Dickens, P, Univ Cambridge, Fac Social & Polit Sci, Free Sch Lane, Cambridge CB2 3RQ, England. AB Social science has long fought shy of the natural sciences. Meanwhile, concerns with the environment, health and the new genetics are creating a need for systematic links to be made between these disciplines. This paper suggests a new way in which social theory can be linked to biology Recent developments in biology point to the importance of considering organisms in relation to their environment. And work in epidemiology stresses the links between the infant-development, health in later life and the well-being of future generations. Complex combinations of genetically-determined predispositions and capitalist social relations are responsible for important features of contemporary social stratification and well-being. The paper is informed by critical realist epistemology and Marx's theory of the subsumption. Such a fusion leads to a key assertion. Capital tends to modify the powers of human biology in its own image. 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RP Wolf, ER, CUNY, New York, NY 10031 USA. AB In his later work Rappaport acknowledged that his earlier efforts had overemphasized organic and ecological functions in the explanation of cultural phenomena. He then distanced himself from both idealism and reductive materialism and set out to understand the complexities of cultural understandings and ritual. Specifically, he shifted from functionalism to formalism in an effort to understand ritual and its language in relation to cultural norms. Ultimately his analysis was implicitly structural, understanding the part as a constituent of an overarching arrangement and in terms of what Althusser would have called "structural causality." Although his work benefited from this shift from function to structure, Rappaport did not use it to explore the political dimension. However, a holistic ecology such as the one Rappaport essayed must ultimately embrace both political ecology and historical ecology. CR ALTHUSSER L, 1970, READING CAPITAL BARGATZKY T, 1996, CURR ANTHROPOL, V17, P416 BARTH F, 1987, COSMOLOGIES MAKING G BLOCH M, 1989, RITUAL HIST POWER SE, P106 DUBY G, 1980, 3 ORDERS FEUDAL SOC KELLY RC, 1993, CONSTRUCTING INEQUAL LINSTROM L, 1990, KNOWLEDGE POWER S PA MAUSS M, 1954, GIFT RAPPAPORT RA, 1979, ECOLOGY MEANING RELI RAPPAPORT RA, 1967, PIGS ANCESTORS RITUA, V1, P1 SAHLINS M, 1976, CURR ANTHROPOL, V17, P298 SAHLINS M, 1996, CURR ANTHROPOL, V37, P395 NR 12 TC 1 J9 AMER ANTHROPOL BP 19 EP 22 PY 1999 PD MAR VL 101 IS 1 GA 214UT UT ISI:000081346500002 ER PT J AU Rounsevell, MDA Ewert, F Reginster, I Leemans, R Carter, TR TI Future scenarios of European agricultural land use II. Projecting changes in cropland and grassland SO AGRICULTURE ECOSYSTEMS & ENVIRONMENT LA English DT Article C1 Catholic Univ Louvain, Dept Geog, Louvain, Belgium. Univ Wageningen & Res Ctr, Dept Plant Sci, Grp Plant Prod Syst, NL-6700 AK Wageningen, Netherlands. Univ Wageningen & Res Ctr, Dept Environm Sci, Grp Environm Syst Anal, NL-6700 HB Wageningen, Netherlands. Finnish Environm Inst, SYKE, FIN-00251 Helsinki, Finland. RP Rounsevell, MDA, Catholic Univ Louvain, Dept Geog, Pl Pasteur 3, Louvain, Belgium. AB This paper presents the development of quantitative, spatially explicit and alternative scenarios of future agricultural land use in Europe (the 15 European Union member states, Norway and Switzerland). The scenarios were constructed to support analyses of the vulnerability of ecosystem services, but the approach also provides an exploration of how agricultural land use might respond to a range of future environmental change drivers, including climate and socio-economic change. The baseline year was 2000 and the scenarios were constructed for 3 years (2020, 2050 and 2080) at a spatial resolution of 10 min latitude and longitude. Time slices were defined for the climate scenarios as the 10 years before 2020, 2050 and 2080. The scenarios were based on an interpretation of the four storylines of the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) using a simple supply/demand model of agricultural area quantities at the European scale and the disaggregation of these quantities using scenario-specific, spatial allocation rules. The scenarios demonstrate the importance of assumptions about technological development for future agricultural land use in Europe. If technology continues to progress at current rates then the area of agricultural land would need to decline substantially. Such declines will not occur if there is a correspondingly large increase in the demand for agricultural goods, or if political decisions are taken either to reduce crop productivity through policies that encourage extensification or to accept widespread overproduction. For the set of parameters assumed here, cropland and grassland areas (for the production of food and fibre) decline by as much as 50% of current areas for some scenarios. Such declines in production areas would result in large parts of Europe becoming surplus to the requirement of food and fibre production. Although it is difficult to anticipate how this land would be used in the future, it seems that continued urban expansion, recreational areas (such as for horse riding) and forest land use would all be likely to take up at least some of the surplus. Furthermore, whilst the substitution of food production by energy production was considered in these scenarios, surplus land would provide further opportunities for the cultivation of bioenergy crops. (c) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. CR *EUR COMM, 2001, AGR EUR UN STAT EC I *EUR, 2000, REG DAT US GUID *IMAGE TEAM, 2001, IMAGE 2 2 IMPL SRES *IUCN WCMC WCPA, 1998, 1997 UN LIST PROT AR ALCAMO J, 1996, GLOBAL ENV CHANGE, V6 ALCAMO J, 1998, GLOBAL CHANGE SCENAR ALCAMO J, 1998, GLOBAL CHANGE SCENAR, P3 ALCAMO J, 2001, 24 EUR ENV AG ALEXANDRATOS N, 1995, AGR 2010 FAO STUDY AMTHOR JS, 1998, FIELD CROP RES, V58, P109 ARNELL NW, 2004, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V14, P3 BRIASSOULI H, 2000, ANAL LAND USE CHANGE CARTER TR, IPCC TECHNICAL GUIDE CARTER TR, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, P145 DAVIS G, 2002, PROB FUT C GROUP EXT DELAVEGALEINERT AC, UNPUB REG ENV CHANGE EWERT F, 2005, AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON, V107, P101 GIUPPONI C, 2003, CLIMATE CHANGE MEDIT, P133 HOLMAN IP, IN PRESS METHODOLOGY HOLMAN IP, IN PRESS RESULTS CLI KAIVOOJA J, 2004, BOREAL ENVIRON RES, V9, P109 LAMBIN EF, 2000, AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON, V82, P321 LEEMANS R, 1996, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V6, P335 LEEMANS R, 1999, RIVM PUBLICATION LORENZONI I, 2000, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V10, P57 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 MEARNS LO, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, P739 METZGER M, 2003, LANDSCHAP, V20, P50 METZGER MJ, UNPUB GLOBAL ECOL BI MITCHELL TD, 2004, 55 U E ANGL TYND CTR MUCHER CA, 2000, INT J REMOTE SENS, V21, P1159 NAKICENOVIC N, 2000, SPECIAL REPORT EMISS PARRY ML, 2000, ASSESSMENT POTENTIAL RABBINGE R, 1997, EUR J PLANT PATHOL, V103, P197 REGINSTER IR, 2004, UNPUB ENV PLAN B ROTMANS J, 2000, FUTURES, V32, P809 ROUNSEVELL MDA, 2000, CLIMATE SCENARIOS AG ROUNSEVELL MDA, 2002, LAND COVE LAND USE E ROUNSEVELL MDA, 2003, AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON, V95, P465 STRENGERS B, 2001, 481508015 RIVM NAT I VERBURG PH, 2002, ENVIRON MANAGE, V30, P391 NR 41 TC 27 J9 AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON BP 117 EP 135 PY 2005 PD MAY 20 VL 107 IS 2-3 GA 919CR UT ISI:000228596400002 ER PT J AU MULLER, RGE TI PEOPLE AND ENVIRONMENT - THE CONCEPT OF ADAPTATION ACCORDING TO VONBRACKEN,HELMUT SO HEILPADAGOGISCHE FORSCHUNG LA German DT Article CR ALLPORT GW, 1949, PERSONLICHKEITSSTRUK CORRELL W, 1974, PADAGOGISCHE VERHALT DEWEY J, 1922, HUMAN NATURE CONDUCT GEIGER T, 1932, MERKSATZE VORLESUNGE LANTERMANN ED, 1982, WECHSELBEZIEHUNGEN P LERSCH P, 1957, AUFBAU PERSON MIERKE K, 1953, PRAXIS KINDERPSYCHOL MIERKE K, 1954, PRAXIS KINDERPSYCHOL MULLER M, 1967, PSYCHOL BEITRAGE, V10 MULLER RGE, 1947, THESIS TH BRAUNSCHWE MULLER RGE, 1954, PSYCHOL BEITRAGE, V1 MULLER RGE, 1960, PSYCHOL BEITRAGE, V4 RIESMAN D, 1958, EINSAME MASSE ROWOHL SELYE H, 1953, EINFUHRUNG LEHRE VOM STERN W, 1952, ALLGEMEINE PSYCHOL P STUTTE H, 1958, GRENZEN SOZIALPADAGO SYMONDS PM, 1946, DYNAMICS HUMAN ADJUS THOMAE H, 1955, PERSONLICHKEIT DYNAM THOMAE H, 1959, HDB PSYCHOL, V3 THUMB N, 1942, AUFBAU PERSONLICHKEI VONBRACKEN H, 1930, ANPASSUNG JUGENDLICH VONBRACKEN H, 1949, BEOBACHTUNGEN SCHULN VONBRACKEN H, 1953, 17 K DT GES PSYCH GO VONBRACKEN H, 1957, CONTRIBUTIONS PSYCHO NR 24 TC 0 J9 HEILPADAGOG FORSCH BP 143 EP 149 PY 1984 VL 11 IS 2 GA TK284 UT ISI:A1984TK28400002 ER PT J AU Smithers, J Smit, B TI Human adaptation to climatic variability and change SO GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS LA English DT Article C1 UNIV GUELPH,DEPT GEOG,GUELPH,ON N1G 2W1,CANADA. RP Smithers, J, UNIV GUELPH,ECOSYST HLTH PROGRAM,FAC ENVIRONM SCI,GUELPH,ON N1G 2W1,CANADA. AB Recent developments in both the policy arena and the climate impacts research community point to a growing interest in human adaptation to climatic variability and change. The importance of adaptation In the climate change question is affirmed in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Technical Guidelines for Assessing impacts and Adaptations and the IPCC's more recent Second Assessment Report. Yet, the nature and processes of human adaptation to climate are poorly understood and rarely investigated directly. Most often, human responses of one form or another are simply assumed in impacts research. Analyses that do address adaptation use a variety of interpretations and perspectives resulting in an incomplete, and at inconsistent, understanding of adaptation to environmental variations. This paper reviews and synthesizes perspectives from an eclectic body or scholarship to develop a framework for characterizing and understanding human adaptation to climatic variability and change. The framework recognizes the characteristics of climatic events, the ecological properties of systems which mediate effects, and the distinctions which are possible among different types of adaptation. A classification scheme is proposed for differentiating adaptation strategies. 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AB A greenhouse warning would have major effects on water supplies and demands. A framework for examining the socioeconomic impacts associated with changes in the long-term availability of water is developed and applied to the hydrologic implications of the Canadian and British Hadley2 general circulation models (GCMs) for the 18 water resource regions in the conterminous United States. The climate projections of these two GCMs have very different implications for future water supplies and costs. The Canadian model suggests most of the nation would be much drier in the year 2030. Under the least-cost management scenario the drier climate could add nearly $105 billion to the estimated costs of balancing supplies and demands relative to the costs without climate change. Measures to protect instream flows and irrigation could result in significantly higher costs. In contrast, projections based on the Hadley model suggest water supplies would increase throughout much of the nation, reducing the costs of balancing water supplies with demands relative to the no-climate change case. CR 1998, WATER CONSERVATION P *BUR CENS, 1992, CENS AGR, V3 *CAL DEP WAT RES, 1998, 16098 CAL WAT PLAN U *EC RES SERV, 1997, AGR HDB, V172 WATSON RT, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, V1, P1 *US ARM CORPS ENG, 1996, NAT INV DAMS *US WAT RES COUNC, 1978, NAT WAT RES 1975 200 BAYHA K, 1978, FWSOBS7861 INSTR FLO BOLAND JJ, 1997, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V37, P157 BROWN TC, 1999, RMRSGTR39 US DEP AGR FREDERICK DK, 1982, WATER W AGR RES FUTU FREDERICK KD, 1991, AM RENEWABLE RESOURC FREDERICK KD, 1991, DOERL01830TH10 OFF E FREDERICK KD, 1997, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V37, P1 MCCABE GJ, 1992, WATER RESOUR BULL, V28, P535 MCCONNELL VD, 1992, J ENVIRON ECON MANAG, V23, P54 MILLER KA, 1990, CLIMATE CHANGE US WA RICHARD D, 1992, COST WASTEWATER RECL SOLLEY WB, 1995, 1200 US GEOL SURV WAHL RW, 1986, SCARCE WATER INSTITU WOLOCK DM, 1999, P SPEC C POT CONS CL, P161 NR 21 TC 3 J9 J AM WATER RESOUR ASSOC BP 1563 EP 1583 PY 1999 PD DEC VL 35 IS 6 GA 271ZB UT ISI:000084624600024 ER PT J AU Klein, RJT Schipper, ELF Dessai, S TI Integrating mitigation and adaptation into climate and development policy: three research questions SO ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE & POLICY LA English DT Article C1 Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res, D-14412 Potsdam, Germany. Stockholm Environm Inst, Oxford OX2 7DL, England. Int Water Management Inst, Colombo, Sri Lanka. Univ E Anglia, Sch Environm Sci, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. Univ E Anglia, Tyndall Ctr Climate Change Res, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. RP Klein, RJT, Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res, POB 601203, D-14412 Potsdam, Germany. AB The potential for developing synergies between climate change mitigation and adaptation has become a recent focus of both climate research and policy. Presumably the interest in synergies springs from the appeal of creating win-win situations by implementing a single climate policy option. However, institutional complexity, insufficient opportunities and uncertainty surrounding their efficiency and effectiveness present major challenges to the widespread development of synergies. There are also increasing calls for research to define the optimal mix of mitigation and adaptation. These calls are based on the misguided assumption that there is one single optimal mix of adaptation and mitigation options for all possible scenarios of climate and socio-economic change, notwithstanding uncertainty and irrespective of the diversity of values and preferences in society. In the face of current uncertainty, research is needed to provide guidance on how to develop a socially and economically justifiable mix of mitigation, adaptation and development policy, as well as on which elements would be part of such a mix. Moreover, research is needed to establish the conditions under which the process of mainstrearning can be most effective. Rather than actually developing and implementing specific mitigation and adaptation options, the objective of climate policy should be to facilitate such development and implementation as part of sectoral policies. Finally, analysis needs to focus on the optimal use and expected effectiveness of financial instruments, taking into account the mutual effects between these instruments on the one hand, and national and international sectoral investments and official development assistance on the other. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *AFDB ADB DFID EC, 2003, POV CLIM CHANG RED V *GAIM TASK FORC, 2002, RES GAIM NEWSLETT GL, V5, P1 *UNDP, 1997, SYN NAT IMPL RIO AGR ARROW KJ, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, P53 BARNETT J, 2002, CLIM POLICY, V2, P231 BEG N, 2002, CLIM POLICY, V2, P129 BURTON I, 1994, DELTA, V5, P14 BURTON I, 2000, CLIMATE CHANGE DEV, P153 BURTON I, 2002, CLIM POLICY, V2, P145 CALLAWAY JM, 1998, MITIGATION ADAPTATIO, P97 CIFUENTES L, 2001, SCIENCE, V293, P1257 COHEN SJ, 1998, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V8, P341 DESSAI S, 2001, INTEGRATED ASSESSMEN, V2, P159 FANKHAUSER S, 1998, 16 GEF HOUGHTON T, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 HULME M, 1999, NATURE, V397, P688 HUQ S, 2002, CLIM POLICY, V2, P243 HUQ S, 2003, MAINSTREAMING ADAPTA, P40 KANE SM, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P1 KATES RW, 1997, ENVIRONMENT, V39, P29 KLEIN RJT, 2001, ADAPTATION CLIMATE C, P42 KLEIN RJT, 2002, EXP M AD CLIM CHANG KLEIN RJT, 2003, CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPT, P317 KLEIN RJT, 2003, CLIMATE CHANGE MEDIT, P32 LEMPERT RJ, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P129 LEMPERT RJ, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P387 MARKANDYA A, 2002, CLIMATE CHANGE SUSTA METZ B, 2000, INTEGRATED ASSESSMEN, V1, P111 MICHAELOWA A, 2001, 153 HWWA MOOMAW WR, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, P167 PARMESAN C, 2003, NATURE, V421, P37 PARRY ML, 1998, NATURE, V395, P741 PIELKE RA, 1998, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V8, P159 PITTOCK AB, 2000, ENVIRON MONIT ASSESS, V61, P9 RIBOT JC, 1996, CLIMATE VARIABILITY, V1, P1 ROOT TL, 2003, NATURE, V421, P57 SCHERAGA JD, 1998, CLIMATE RES, V11, P85 SMIT B, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, P877 SMITH JB, 2003, CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPT SMITHERS J, 1997, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V7, P129 TOTH FL, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, P601 WIGLEY TML, 1998, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V25, P2285 YOHE GW, 2001, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V49, P247 NR 43 TC 0 J9 ENVIRON SCI POLICY BP 579 EP 588 PY 2005 VL 8 IS 6 GA 991MD UT ISI:000233817200006 ER PT J AU Spittlehouse, DL TI Integrating climate change adaptation into forest management SO FORESTRY CHRONICLE LA English DT Article C1 BC Minist Forest, Res Branch, Victoria, BC V8W 9C2, Canada. RP Spittlehouse, DL, BC Minist Forest, Res Branch, POB 9519,Stn Prov Govt, Victoria, BC V8W 9C2, Canada. AB Future climate change will affect society's ability to use forest resources. We take account of climate in forest management and this will help us adapt to the effects of climate change on forests. However, society will have to adjust to how forests adapt by changing expectations for the use of forest resources because management can only influence the timing and direction of forest adaptation at selected locations. There will be benefits as well as loses and an important component of adaptation will be balancing values. Adaptation options to respond to impacts on the timber supply in Canada for the next 50 to 100 years are limited mainly to forest protection and wood utilisation because these forests are already in the ground. Adaptation through reforestation will focus on commercial tree species. It is important to start developing adaptation strategies now. These include assessing forest vulnerability to climate change, revising expectations of forest use, determining research and educational needs, development of forest policies to facilitate adaptation, and determining when to implement responses. Government agencies should take the lead in creating an environment to foster adaptation in forestry and in developing the necessary information required to respond. 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Harvard Univ, Sch Med, Ctr Hlth & Global Environm, Boston, MA USA. Resources Future Inc, Washington, DC USA. Nat Resources Def Council, Washington, DC USA. US Geol Survey, San Diego, CA USA. RP Levin, RB, Harvard Univ, Sch Publ Hlth, Environm Epidemiol Program, 665 Huntington Ave, Boston, MA 02115 USA. AB The access of almost all 270 million U.S. residents to reliable, safe drinking water distinguishes the United States in the twentieth century from that of the nineteenth century. The United States is a relatively water-abundant country with moderate population growth; nonetheless, current trends are sufficient to strain water resources over time, especially on a regional basis. We have examined the areas of public water infrastructure, global climate effects, waterborne disease (including emerging and resurging pathogens), land use, groundwater, surface water, and the U.S. regulatory history and its horizon. 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ER PT J AU Arnell, NW Tompkins, EL Adger, WN TI Eliciting information from experts on the likelihood of rapid climate change SO RISK ANALYSIS LA English DT Article C1 Univ Southampton, Sch Geog, Tyndall Ctr Climate Change Res, Southampton SO17 1BJ, Hants, England. Univ E Anglia, Sch Environm Sci, Tyndall Ctr Climate Change Res, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. RP Arnell, NW, Univ Southampton, Sch Geog, Tyndall Ctr Climate Change Res, Southampton SO17 1BJ, Hants, England. AB The threat of so-called rapid or abrupt climate change has generated considerable public interest because of its potentially significant impacts. The collapse of the North Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation or the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, for example, would have potentially catastrophic effects on temperatures and sea level, respectively. But how likely are such extreme climatic changes? Is it possible actually to estimate likelihoods? This article reviews the societal demand for the likelihoods of rapid or abrupt climate change, and different methods for estimating likelihoods: past experience, model simulation, or through the elicitation of expert judgments. The article describes a survey to estimate the likelihoods of two characterizations of rapid climate change, and explores the issues associated with such surveys and the value of information produced. The surveys were based on key scientists chosen for their expertise in the climate science of abrupt climate change. Most survey respondents ascribed low likelihoods to rapid climate change, due either to the collapse of the Thermohaline Circulation or increased positive feedbacks. In each case one assessment was an order of magnitude higher than the others. We explore a high rate of refusal to participate in this expert survey: many scientists prefer to rely on output from future climate model simulations. 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AB This paper reviews assumptions guiding earlier models of social and economic behavior among arid land hunter-gatherers, especially those models that argued for the 'original affluent society' and concepts requiring groups of fixed size and composition operating within stable, bounded territories. A close look at socioeconomic behavior among ethnographic Ngatatjara Aborigines of the Western Desert challenges these assumptions and introduces an adaptive model based on strategy switching'. In order to minimize risks imposed by droughts, the Ngatatjara responded in their movements and group composition by means of two alterative strategies: drought escape and drought evasion. Drought escape involved temporary abandonment of entire areas by individual households or by individuals to distant, better-favored areas. Drought evasion involved retreat by small family groups into areas within their 'home' country where relatively dependable water resources were available. Drought escape and drought evasion strategies are briefly considered as factors in early plant domestication in the context of prehistoric arid-land foraging societies in places like the Tehuacan Valley on the Mexican Plateau. 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Texas A&M Univ, Dept Landscape Architecture & Urban Planning, Environm Planning & Sustainabil Res Unit, College Stn, TX 77843 USA. Texas A&M Univ, George Bush Sch Govt & Publ Serv, Inst Sci Technol & Publ Policy, College Stn, TX 77843 USA. RP Zahran, S, Colorado State Univ, Dept Sociol, B-258 Clark Bldg, Ft Collins, CO 80523 USA. AB Climate scientists note that the effects of climate change vary regionally. Citizen willingness to absorb the costs of adaptation and mitigation policies may correspond with these place-specific effects. Geographic information systems (GIS) analytic techniques are used to map and measure survey respondents' climate change risk at various levels of spatial resolution and precision. Spatial data are used to analyze multiple measures of climate change vulnerability along with demographic, attitudinal, and perception-based variables derived from a representative national survey of U. 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RP Steelman, TA, N Carolina State Univ, Coll Nat Resources, Dept Forestry, Campus Box 8008, Raleigh, NC 27695 USA. AB National policies to address the wildfire threat in the United States place emphasis on community responsiveness, but great uncertainty surrounds the scope and success of community response to wildfire threats and why some communities foster effective responses while others fail to do so. Two case studies of community responses to wildfire threats in New Mexico are explored. A decision process framework illustrates how an effective response can be defined. Findings indicate that an effective community response to wildfire means that a community works through all stages of the decision process with appropriate social and structural responses to its specific threat. CR *GEN ACC OFF, 1999, RCED9965 GEN ACC OFF *GEN ACC OFF, 1999, TRCED9979 GEN ACC OF *GEN ACC OFF, 2001, GAO0110227 GEN ACC O *NAT INT FIR CTR, 2003, NAT INT FIR CTR FIR *SFWA, 2003, STAT REP *US BUR CENS, 2002, AM FACT FIND *USDA, 2000, FED WILDL FIR MAN PO *USDA, 2000, NAT FIR PLAN *USDA, 2000, PROT PEOPL SUST RES *USDA, 2001, SANT FE NAT FOR *W GOV ASS, 2001, W GOV ASS KEY ISS BR BERKE P, 1998, J AM PLAN ASS, V64, P75 BURBY RJ, 1998, J ENV PLANNING MANAG, V41, P95 CHENG T, 2003, HUMANS FIRES FORESTS, P51 CIGLER B, 1988, MANAGING DIASTER STR, P39 CLARK TH, 1996, J MANAGEMENT INFORMA, V13, P9 CLARK TW, 2002, POLICY PROCESS PRACT CORTNER HJ, 1990, ENVIRON MANAGE, V14, P57 CUTTER SL, 2000, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V90, P713 GARDNER P, 1988, P AR LANDS TOD TOM, P643 GORTE RW, 2003, HUMANS FIRES FORESTS, P59 LASSWELL HD, 1971, PREVIEW POLICY SCI LASSWELL HD, 1992, JURISPRUDENCE FREE S MAY P, 1986, DISASTER POLICY IMPL MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 YIN RK, 1994, CASE STUDY RES DESIG NR 26 TC 0 J9 SOC NATUR RESOUR BP 679 EP 699 PY 2004 PD SEP VL 17 IS 8 GA 848ZR UT ISI:000223507400003 ER PT J AU Luers, AL TI The surface of vulnerability: An analytical framework for examining environmental change SO GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS LA English DT Article C1 Union Concerned Sci, Berkeley, CA 94704 USA. RP Luers, AL, Union Concerned Sci, 2397 Shattuck Ave,Ste 203, Berkeley, CA 94704 USA. AB This paper introduces an analytical framework for evaluating the vulnerability of people and places to environmental and social forces. The framework represents the relative vulnerability of a variable of concern (e.g. such as agricultural yield) to a set of disturbing forces (e.g. climate change, market fluctuations) by a position on a three-dimensional analytical surface, where vulnerability is defined as a function of sensitivity, exposure, and the state relative to a threshold of damage. The surface is presented as a tool to help identify relative vulnerability in order to prioritize actions and assess the vulnerability implications of management and policy decisions. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *FAO, 1997, FAOSTAT MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 ADGER WN, 1999, MITIG ADAPT STRAT GL, V4, P253 ADGER WN, 2001, LIVING ENV CHANGE SO BLAIKIE PM, 1994, RISK NATURAL HAZARDS, V1, P1 BOHLE HG, 2001, IHDP UPDATE, V2 BOHLE HG, 1994, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V4, P37 BRIGUGLIO L, 1995, WORLD DEV, V23, P1615 CARPENTER SR, 2001, ECOSYSTEMS, V4, P765 CARPENTER SR, 1999, ECOL APPL, V9, P751 CHAMBERS R, 1989, IDS B, V20, P1 CLARK WC, 2000, 200012 BCSIA HARV U CUTTER SL, 2000, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V90, P713 DOWNING TE, 1991, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V1, P365 DOWNING TE, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE VULNE FOLKE C, 2002, ICSU SERIES SUSTAINA KALY A, 2002, DEV B, V58 KASPERSON JX, 2003, HUMAN DIMENSIONS GLO KELLY PM, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V47, P325 LEICHENKO RM, 2002, MITIGATION ADAPTATIO, V7, P1 LOBELL DB, 2002, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V114, P31 LOBELL DB, 2003, AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON, V114, P31 LUERS AL, 2003, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V13, P255 MITCHELL JK, 1989, GEOGR REV, V79, P391 MOSS RH, 2002, UNPUB VULNERABILITY NAYLOR RL, 2001, 0101 CIMMYT OBRIEN KL, 2000, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V10, P221 PETERSON GD, 2002, CONSERVATION ECOLOGY, V6 POLSKY C, 2003, ASSESSIG VULNERABILI RIBOT JC, 1995, GEOJOURNAL, V35, P119 SCHEFFER M, 2001, NATURE, V413, P591 SCHIMMELPFENNIG D, 1999, GLOBAL ENV CHANGE AG SMITH B, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P223 STEPHEN L, 2001, DISASTERS, V25, P113 TURNER BL, 2003, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V100, P8074 TURNER BL, 2003, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V100, P8080 WATTS MJ, 1993, PROG HUM GEOG, V17, P43 NR 37 TC 4 J9 GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANGE BP 214 EP 223 PY 2005 PD OCT VL 15 IS 3 GA 960JC UT ISI:000231585500005 ER PT J AU Fankhauser, S TI Climate change costs - Recent advancements in the economic assessment SO ENERGY POLICY LA English DT Article C1 VRIJE UNIV AMSTERDAM,INST ENVIRONM STUDIES,NL-1081 HV AMSTERDAM,NETHERLANDS. RP Fankhauser, S, GLOBAL ENVIRONM FACIL SECRETARIAT,PRINCE,1818 H ST NW,WASHINGTON,DC 20433. AB Climate change is unique among the consequences of fossil fuel burning in its far reaching impact, both spatially and temporally. Earlier studies estimate the aggregated monetized damage due to climate change at 1.5 to 2.0% of world GDP (for 2 x CO2); the OECD would lose 1.0 to 1.5% of GDP; the developing countries 2.0 to 9.0%, according to these estimates. These figures are not comprehensive and highly uncertain. Newer studies increasingly emphasize adaptation, variability, extreme events, other (non-climate change) stress factors and the need for integrated assessment of damages. As a result, differences in impacts between regions and sectors have increased, the market impacts in developed countries tended to fall, and non-market impacts have become increasingly important. Marginal damages are more interesting from a policy point of view, Earlier estimates range from about US$5 to US$125 per tonne of carbon, with most estimates at the lower end of this range. These figures are based on polynomial functions in the level of climate change, but the rate of change may be equally important, as are the speed of adaptation, restoration and value adjustment. Furthermore, future vulnerability to climate change will be different from current vulnerability. On the whole, the market impacts fall (relatively) with economic growth while the non-market impacts rise (relatively) with growth. Copyright (C) 1996 Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. 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RP Gonzalez, P, US Geol Survey, Earth Resources Observat Syst Data Ctr, Washington, DC 20523 USA. AB Original field data show that forest species richness and tree density in the West African Sahel declined in the last half of the 20th century. Average forest species richness of areas of 4 km(2) in Northwest Senegal fell from 64 +/- 2 species ca 1945 to 43 +/- 2 species in 1993, a decrease significant at p < 0.001. Densities of trees of height greater than or equal to3 m declined from 10 +/- 0.3 trees ha(-1) in 1954 to 7.8 +/- 0.3 trees ha(-1) in 1989, also significant at p < 0.001. Standing wood biomass fell 2.1 t ha(-1) in the period 1956-1993, releasing CO2 at a rate of 60 kgC person(-1) yr(-1). These changes have shifted vegetation zones toward areas of higher rainfall at an average rate of 500 to 600 m yr(-1). Arid Sahel species have expanded in the north, tracking a concomitant retraction of mesic Sudan and Guinean species to the south. Multivariate analyses identify latitude and longitude, proxies for rainfall and temperature, as the most significant factors explaining tree and shrub distribution. The changes also decreased human carrying capacity to below actual population densities. The rural population of 45 people km(-2) exceeded the 1993 carrying capacity, for firewood from shrubs, of 13 people km(-2) (range 1 to 21 people km(-2)). As an adaptation strategy, ecological and socioeconomic factors favor the natural regeneration of local species over the massive plantation of exotic species. Natural regeneration is a traditional practice in which farmers select small field trees that they wish to raise to maturity, protect them, and prune them to promote rapid growth of the apical meristem. The results of this research provide evidence for desertification in the West African Sahel. These documented impacts of desertification foreshadow possible future effects of climate change. 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Carbosur, Montevideo, Uruguay. Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Soil Sci, Nanjing, Peoples R China. Agr & Agri Food Canada, Res Ctr, Lethbridge, AB T1J 4B1, Canada. Univ enclave, Inst Econ Growth, Delhi 110007, India. Texas A&M Univ, Dept Agr Econ, College Stn, TX 77843 USA. Colorado State Univ, NREL, Ft Collins, CO 80523 USA. Natl Univ Ireland Univ Coll Dublin, Sch Agr Food Sci & Vet Med, Dublin 4, Ireland. Kansas State Univ, Dept Agron, Manhattan, KS 66506 USA. All Russian Inst Agr Meteorol, Obninsk 249020, Kaluga Region, Russia. CSIRO, Sustainable Ecosyst, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia. Nanjing Agr Univ, Coll Resources & Environm Sci, Nanjing 210095, Peoples R China. Pryanishnikov All Russian Isnt Agrochem, VNIIA, Moscow 127550, Russia. Univ Hamburg, Dept Geosci, D-20146 Hamburg, Germany. Univ Hamburg, Dept Econ, D-20146 Hamburg, Germany. King Monkuts Univ Technol, Joint Grad Sch Energy & Environm, Bangkok 10140, Thailand. RP Smith, P, Univ Aberdeen, Sch Biol Sci, Cruickshank Bldg,St Machar Dr, Aberdeen AB24 3UU, Scotland. AB A recent assessment of agricultural greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions has demonstrated significant potential for mitigation, but suggests that the full mitigation will not be realized due to significant barriers to implementation. In this paper, we explore the constraints and barriers to implementation important for GHG mitigation in agriculture. We also examine how climate and non-climate policy in different regions of the world has affected agricultural GHG emissions in the recent past, and how it may affect emissions and mitigation implementation in the future. We examine the links between mitigation and adaptation and drives for sustainable development and the potential for agricultural GHG mitigation in the future. We describe how some countries have initiated climate and non-climate policies believed to have direct effects or synergistic effects on mitigating GHG emissions from agriculture. Global sharing of innovative technologies for efficient use of land resources and agricultural chemicals, to eliminate poverty and malnutrition, will significantly mitigate GHG emissions from agriculture. Previous studies have shown that as, less than 30% of the total biophysical potential for agricultural GHG mitigation might be achieved by 2030, due to price- and non-price-related barriers to implementation. The challenge for successful agricultural GHG mitigation will be to remove these barriers by implementing creative policies. Identifying policies that provide benefits for climate, as well as for aspects of economic, social and environmental sustainability, will be critical for ensuring that effective GHG mitigation options are widely implemented in the future. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. 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World Psychiat Assoc, Sect Urban Mental Hlth, New York, NY USA. Mt Sinai Sch Med, Div Psychiat Epidemiol, New York, NY 10003 USA. Mt Sinai Sch Med, Int Ctr Mental Hlth, New York, NY 10003 USA. RP Caracci, G, Mt Sinai Sch Med, Dept Psychiat, Cabrini Program, 227 E 19th St, New York, NY 10003 USA. AB Because half, of the world's population will soon live in cities, urban mental health will become a central issue for both urban and he th planning. Cultural factors and urban dynamics interplay in often creative but sometimes destructive ways. Vulnerable citizens may have difficulty adjusting to the high-pressure, urban environment. Understanding the impact of cultural factors on adaptation to urban life may greatly enhance our ability to prevent, assess, and treat mental disorders in urban dwellers. 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RP Sassaman, KE, Univ Florida, Dept Anthropol, 1112 Turlington Hall, Gainesville, FL 32610 USA. AB A review of recent research on complex hunter gatherers in North America suggests that age-old tensions between evolutionary and historical epistemologies continue to cultivate progress in anthropological understanding of sociocultural variation. Coupled with criticism of the evolutionary status of ethnographic foragers, archaeological documentation of variation among hunter-gatherer societies of the ancient past makes it difficult to generalize about causal relationships among environment, subsistence economy, and sociopolitical organization. Explanations for emergent complexity on the Pacific Coast that privilege environmental triggers for economic change have been challenged by new paleoenvironmental findings, while hypotheses suggesting that economic changes were preceded by, indeed caused by, transformations of existing structures of social inequality have gained empirical support. In its emergent data on mound construction apart from significant subsistence change, the southeastern United States gives pause to materialist explanations for complexity, turning the focus on symbolic and structural dimensions of practice that cannot be understood apart from particular histories of group interaction and tradition. Taken together, recent research on complex hunter-gatherers in North America has not only expanded the empirical record of sociocultural formations once deemed anomalous and/or derivative of European contact but also has contributed to the ongoing process of clarifying concepts of cultural complexity and how this process ultimately restructures anthropological theory. 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McConnell, WJ TI Global change and the intensification of agriculture in the tropics SO GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS LA English DT Review C1 Arizona State Univ, Dept Geog, Tempe, AZ 85287 USA. Indiana Univ, Ctr Study Inst Populat & Environm Change, Bloomington, IN 47405 USA. RP Keys, E, Arizona State Univ, Dept Geog, Box 870104, Tempe, AZ 85287 USA. AB Bridging understanding of local environmental change with regional and global patterns of land-use and land-cover change (LUCC) remains a key goal and challenge for our understanding of global environmental change. This meta-analysis attempts to bridge local and regional scales of LUCC by demonstrating the ways in which previously published case studies can be compared and used for a broader regional synthesis in the tropics. In addition to providing results from a meta-analysis, this paper suggests ways to make future case studies more widely comparable. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 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Univ Oxford, Comp Lab, Oxford OX1 3QD, England. Hadley Ctr Climate Predict & Res, Met Off, Exeter EX1 3PB, Devon, England. Rutherford Appleton Lab, Didcot OX11 0QX, Oxon, England. Univ London London Sch Econ & Polit Sci, London WC2A 2AE, England. Open Univ, Dept Earth Sci, Milton Keynes MK7 6AA, Bucks, England. Univ Reading, Dept Meteorol, Reading RG6 6BB, Berks, England. RP Stainforth, DA, Univ Oxford, Dept Phys, Parks Rd, Oxford OX1 3PU, England. AB The range of possibilities for future climate evolution(1-3) needs to be taken into account when planning climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies. This requires ensembles of multi-decadal simulations to assess both chaotic climate variability and model response uncertainty(4-9). Statistical estimates of model response uncertainty, based on observations of recent climate change(10-13), admit climate sensitivities - defined as the equilibrium response of global mean temperature to doubling levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide - substantially greater than 5 K. But such strong responses are not used in ranges for future climate change(14) because they have not been seen in general circulation models. Here we present results from the 'climateprediction.net' experiment, the first multi-thousand-member grand ensemble of simulations using a general circulation model and thereby explicitly resolving regional details(15-21). We find model versions as realistic as other state-of-the-art climate models but with climate sensitivities ranging from less than 2 K to more than 11 K. Models with such extreme sensitivities are critical for the study of the full range of possible responses of the climate system to rising greenhouse gas levels, and for assessing the risks associated with specific targets for stabilizing these levels. 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RP Chambers, LE, Bur Meteorol Res Ctr, GPO Box 1289, Melbourne, Vic 3001, Australia. AB In the 2001 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Third Assessment Report numerous studies of processes and species associated with regional temperature change were listed for the Northern Hemisphere (107 in North America, 458 in Europe, and 14 in Asia), but only a handful of studies for the Southern Hemisphere and, sadly, none for Australia were included. This article looks at the progress that Australia has made in addressing these knowledge gaps during the last three years. The article highlights the need for a national approach to the study of the associations between climate change and natural systems and suggests ways in which this could be achieved. 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RP Schnur, R, Max Planck Inst Meteorol, Bundesstr 55, D-20146 Hamburg, Germany. CR EASTERLING DR, 2000, SCIENCE, V289, P2068 HOUGHTON JT, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 KHARIN VV, 2000, J CLIMATE, V13, P3760 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 MEEHL GA, 2000, B AM METEOROL SOC, V81, P413 MILLY PCD, 2002, NATURE, V415, P514 PALMER TN, 2000, REP PROG PHYS, V63, P71 PALMER TN, 2002, NATURE, V415, P512 NR 8 TC 10 J9 NATURE BP 483 EP 484 PY 2002 PD JAN 31 VL 415 IS 6871 GA 516PQ UT ISI:000173564300027 ER PT J AU Perez, RT Amadore, LA Feir, RB TI Climate change impacts and responses in the Philippines coastal sector SO CLIMATE RESEARCH LA English DT Article C1 PAGASA, Quezon City 1104, Philippines. NAMRIA, DENR, CGSD, Manila, Philippines. RP Perez, RT, PAGASA, Agham Rd, Quezon City 1104, Philippines. AB The Manila Bay coastal area in The Philippines was evaluated for the possible consequences of accelerated sea level rise in the context of climate change and to assess adaptive responses to such threats. The coastal area is an important region in terms of commercial, industrial, agricultural, and aquacultural activities of The Philippines. Results show that areas along the coast if inundated by a 1 m sea level rise would include coastal barangays from 19 municipalities of Metro Manila, Bulacan, and Cavite and would cover an area of 5555 ha. Proposed response strategies consist of protecting the coast by building sea walls; institutional actions such as formulation of setback policies and construction regulations; and adaptive planning in the context of an integrated coastal zone management to address the short- and long-term problems, with the involvement of communities in the area. Information, education, and communication are essential along with the technical and scientific efforts to achieve a well-balanced adaptation plan. CR *DEP ENV NAT RES, 1996, PHIL ENV QUAL REP 19 *I CLIM ENV EN, 1997, REP SOC EC STUD MAN *IPCC, 1990, SEA LEV RIS CLIM CHA *NAT STAT OFF, 1990, PHIL STAT YB *US BUR FISH AQ RE, 1994, ANN REP 1993 *USAID DOH, 1993, LOOK PHIL POP SOC RE CARANDANG E, 1989, STUDY VARIATION SEA LEATHERMAN SP, 1995, J COASTAL RES, V14, P15 PEREZ RT, 1996, WATER AIR SOIL POLL, V92, P137 PIMENTEL AQ, 1993, LOCAL GOVT CODE 1991 POST JC, 1996, WORLD BANK MONOGRAPH, V9 WHITE AT, 1989, COASTAL ZONE MANAGEM NR 12 TC 0 J9 CLIMATE RES BP 97 EP 107 PY 1999 PD AUG 27 VL 12 IS 2-3 GA V3096 UT ISI:000171723000007 ER PT J AU Dessai, S Hulme, M TI Does climate adaptation policy need probabilities? SO CLIMATE POLICY LA English DT Review C1 Univ E Anglia, Sch Environm Sci, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. RP Dessai, S, Univ E Anglia, Sch Environm Sci, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. AB Estimating the likelihood of future climate change has become a priority objective within the research community. This is the case because of the advancement of science, because of user demand and because of the central role played by climate prediction in guiding adaptation policy. But are probabilities what climate policy really needs? This article reviews three key questions: (1) Why might we (not) need probabilities of climate change? (2) What are the problems in estimating probabilities? (3) How are researchers estimating probabilities? These questions are analysed within the context of adaptation to climate change. Overall, we conclude that the jury is still out on whether probabilities are useful for climate adaptation policy. The answer is highly context dependent and thus is a function of the goals and motivation of the policy analysis, the unit of analysis, timescale and the training of the analyst. Probability assessment in the context of climate change is always subjective, conditional and provisional. There are various problems in estimating the probability of future climate change, but reflexive human behaviour (i.e. actions explicitly influenced by information) is largely intractable in the context of prediction. Nonetheless, there is considerable scope to develop novel methodologies that combine conditional probabilities with scenarios and which are relevant for climate decision-making. 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P451 WILLIAMS LJ, 1998, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V39, P111 WILLOWS RI, 2003, CLIMATE ADAPTATION R WOLFE AK, 2001, ENV IMPACT ASSESSMEN YOHE GW, 1999, MITIGATION ADAPTATIO, V4, P319 ZAPERT R, 1998, ENERG ECON, V20, P571 ZENG LX, 2000, B AM METEOROL SOC, V81, P2075 ZIERVOGEL G, 2004, AGR SYST, P82 NR 126 TC 0 J9 CLIM POLICY BP 107 EP 128 PY 2004 VL 4 IS 2 GA 892TM UT ISI:000226672900002 ER PT J AU Yu, XJ Taplin, R Gilmour, AJ TI Climate convention implementation: An opportunity for the Pacific island nations to move toward sustainable energy systems SO ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article C1 MACQUARIE UNIV,SCH EARTH SCI,CLIMAT IMPACTS CTR,SYDNEY,NSW 2109,AUSTRALIA. RP Yu, XJ, MACQUARIE UNIV,GRAD SCH ENVIRONM,SYDNEY,NSW 2109,AUSTRALIA. AB The impacts of global warming are among the more serious environmental threats far the Pacific Island countries. These nations justifiably argue that developed countries should give immediate priority to the implementation of climate change mitigation policies because of the severe nature of potential greenhouse impacts for the Pacific Islands. Another immediate priority acknowledged by these nations is the need for development of adaptation policies that plan for adjustment or adaptation, where possible, to the foreshadowed impacts of climate change. This article does not focus on adaptation or mitigation policy directly but on an allied opportunity that exists for the Pacific Islands via the auspices of the Climate Convention, because the existing very costly energy systems used in the Pacific island region are fossil-fuel dependent. It is argued here that efforts can be made towards the development of energy systems that are ecologically sustainable because Pacific Island nations are eligible to receive assistance to introduce renewable energy technology and pursue energy conservation via implementation mechanisms of the Climate Convention and, in particular through transfer of technology and via joint implementation. II is contended that assistance in the form of finance, technology, and human resource development from developed countries and international organizations would provide sustainable benefits in improving the local Pacific island environments. It is also emphasized that mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions is not the responsibility of the Pacific Islands as they contribute very little on a per capita global scale and a tiny proportion of total global greenhouse gas emissions. 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Res Inst Soil Sci & Agrochem, RO-71331 Bucharest, Romania. RP Cuculeanu, V, Natl Inst Meteorol & Hydrol, Sos Bucuresti Ploiesti 97, RO-71552 Bucharest, Romania. AB The aim of this paper is to assess the potential effects of climate change on development, grain yield, and water balance for the main agricultural crops at 5 typical sites located in one of the most vulnerable zones of Romania. In addition, the paper evaluates possible adaptation measures of crop management to future climate changes. The vulnerability assessments focused on winter wheat and maize crops due to the particular importance of these crops in the cultivated areas and the difference in the genetic type of these crops reflected in their distinct physiological responses to CO2 concentration level (winter wheat is a C-3 crop, while maize is a C-4 crop). Outputs from 2 equilibrium 2 x CO2 general circulation models were used to develop climate change scenarios. CERES simulation models, linked with a seasonal analysis program included in the dedicated software DSSAT v3.0, were run for 30 yr with baseline climate and climate change scenarios. The results of crop simulations under climate change scenarios indicated that winter wheat benefits from the interaction of double CO2 concentrations and higher temperatures, while irrigated maize in southern Romania shows negative responses to climate change. The adverse impact of climate change on the maize crop can be lessened by using a longer maturing hybrid, sowing in the last week of April, applying a plant density of 5 plants m(-2), and increasing fertilization levels. CR *US COUNTR STUD MA, 1994, PO63 US COUNTR STUD BENIOFF R, 1996, VULNERABILITY ADAPTA GENG S, 1988, 204 U CAL DEP AGR RA GODWIN DC, 1989, USERS GUIDE CERES WH GOUDRIAAN J, 1990, ASA SPEC PUBL, V53, P111 RITCHIE JT, 1989, USERS GUIDE CERES MA SIMOTA C, 1997, COUNTRY STUDY CLIMAT TSUJI GI, 1994, DSSAT V3 0, V1 TSUJI GI, 1994, DSSAT V3 0, V2 TSUJI GI, 1994, DSSAT V3 0, V3 VANDEGEIJIN SC, 1993, CLIMATE CHANGE CROPS NR 11 TC 7 J9 CLIMATE RES BP 153 EP 160 PY 1999 PD AUG 27 VL 12 IS 2-3 GA V3096 UT ISI:000171723000013 ER PT J AU Rahman, A Bjorklund, G TI Workshop 4 (synthesis): securing food production under climate variability - exploring the options SO WATER SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY LA English DT Article C1 GeWa Consulting, S-75244 Uppsala, Sweden. RP Rahman, A, 40733 Laguna Pl, Fremont, CA 94539 USA. AB Climate variabilities may result in different types of dry spells, droughts or flood situations, having harmful effects on agricultural productivity and food security. Long-term trends in climate variabilities and climate extremes may be a consequence of an on-going climate change and would thus result in a more permanent change in the pre-conditions for food production. The presentations and discussion during the workshop concentrated on some different measures to be taken in addressing these kind of situations and in particularly on the adverse effects of dry spells, droughts and to some extent also floods. The different areas presented were examples from Bangladesh, the Indus river and delta region, examples from India (Tamil Nadu, Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh), Israel, Sri Lanka and Uzbekistan. NR 0 TC 0 J9 WATER SCI TECHNOL BP 147 EP 149 PY 2004 VL 49 IS 7 GA 834HB UT ISI:000222401100028 ER PT J AU Kennish, MJ TI Environmental threats and environmental future of estuaries SO ENVIRONMENTAL CONSERVATION LA English DT Review C1 Rutgers State Univ, Inst Marine & Coastal Sci, New Brunswick, NJ 08901 USA. RP Kennish, MJ, Rutgers State Univ, Inst Marine & Coastal Sci, New Brunswick, NJ 08901 USA. AB Estuaries exhibit a wide array of human impacts that can compromise their ecological integrity, because of rapid population growth and uncontrolled development in many coastal regions worldwide. Long-term environmental problems plaguing estuaries require remedial actions to improve the viability and health of these valuable coastal systems. Detailed examination of the effects of pollution inputs, the loss and alteration of estuarine habitat, and the role of other anthropogenic stress indicates that water quality in estuaries, particularly urbanized systems, is often compromised by the overloading of nutrients and organic matter, the influx of pathogens, and the accumulation of chemical contaminants. In addition, the destruction of fringing wetlands and the loss and alteration of estuarine habitats usually degrade biotic communities. Estuaries are characterized by high population densities of microbes, plankton, benthic flora and fauna, and nekton; however, these organisms tend to be highly vulnerable to human activities in coastal watersheds and adjoining embayments. Trends suggest that by 2025 estuaries will be most significantly impacted by habitat loss and alteration associated with a burgeoning coastal population, which is expected to approach six billion people. Habitat destruction has far reaching ecological consequences, modifying the structure, function, and controls of estuarine ecosystems and contributing to the decline of biodiversity. Other anticipated high priority problems are excessive nutrient and sewage inputs to estuaries, principally from land-based sources. These inputs will lead to the greater incidence of eutrophication as well as hypoxia and anoxia. During the next 25 years, overfishing is expected to become a more pervasive and significant anthropogenic factor, also capable of mediating global-scale change to estuaries. Chemical contaminants, notably synthetic organic compounds, will remain a serious problem, especially in heavily industrialized areas. Freshwater diversions appear to be an emerging global problem as the expanding coastal population places greater demands on limited freshwater supplies for agricultural, domestic, and industrial needs. Altered freshwater flows could significantly affect nutrient loads, biotic community structure, and the trophodynamics of estuarine systems. Ecological impacts that will be less threatening, but still damaging, are those caused by introduced species, sea level rise, coastal subsidence, and debris/litter. Although all of these disturbances can alter habitats and contribute to shifts in the composition of estuarine biotic communities, the overall effect will be partial changes to these ecosystem components. Several strategies may mitigate future impacts. 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SISSENWINE MP, 1996, OCEANOGRAPHY CONT RE, P293 SMAYDA TJ, 1990, TOXIC MARINE PHYTOPL, P29 SMITH VH, 1999, ENVIRON POLLUT, V100, P179 TAPP JF, 1993, J EXP MAR BIOL ECOL, V172, P67 TAYLOR P, 1993, MAR POLLUT BULL, V26, P120 THOMAS CA, 1999, ESTUAR COAST SHELF S, V48, P635 THOMPSON B, 1999, MAR ENVIRON RES, V48, P285 TINER RW, 1995, WETLANDS MARYLAND TOPFER K, 1990, MAR POLICY, V14, P259 TURNER A, 2000, ESTUAR COAST SHELF S, V50, P355 TURNER RE, 1997, WETLANDS ECOL MANAG, V4, P65 VALIELA I, 1995, MARINE ECOLOGICAL PR VALIELA I, 1997, ECOL APPL, V7, P358 VILES H, 1995, COASTAL PROBLEMS GEO VIVIANSMITH G, 2001, HDB RESTORING TIDAL, P39 WANIA F, 1998, ENVIRON POLLUT, V102, P3 WARWICK RM, 1979, ECOLOGICAL PROCESSES, P429 WEBER P, 1994, WORLD WATCH MAR, P20 WEINSTEIN JE, 1996, SUSTAINABLE DEV SE C, P135 WEIS P, 1993, ESTUAR COAST SHELF S, V36, P71 WESTON DP, 1990, MAR ECOL-PROG SER, V61, P233 WHITE WA, 1995, J COASTAL RES, V11, P788 WHITFIELD AK, 1998, ICHTHYOLOGICAL MONOG, V2 WILD SR, 1995, ENVIRON POLLUT, V88, P91 WILLIAMS GD, 2001, HDB RESTORING TIDAL, P235 WINDOM HL, 1992, MAR POLLUT BULL, V25, P32 WOLANSKI E, 1996, J MARINE SYST, V7, P267 WREN CD, 1995, HDB ECOTOXICOLOGY, P392 WRIGHT LD, 1995, MORPHODYNAMICS INNER WUEBBLES DJ, 1999, ENVIRON POLLUT, V100, P57 YAP HT, 1992, MAR POLLUT BULL, V25, P37 ZEDLER JB, 1996, ECOL APPL, V6, P84 ZEDLER JB, 1999, RESTOR ECOL, V7, P69 ZEDLER JB, 2001, HDB RESTORING TIDAL NR 180 TC 5 J9 ENVIRON CONSERV BP 78 EP 107 PY 2002 PD MAR VL 29 IS 1 GA 557TJ UT ISI:000175924000006 ER PT J AU Gaiser, T de Barros, I Lange, FM Williams, JR TI Water use efficiency of a maize/cowpea intercrop on a highly acidic tropical soil as affected by liming and fertilizer application SO PLANT AND SOIL LA English DT Article C1 Univ Hohenheim, Inst Soil Sci & Land Evaluat, D-70593 Stuttgart, Germany. CIRAD, F-34398 Montpellier 5, France. Texas Agr Exptl Stn, Temple, TX USA. RP Gaiser, T, Univ Hohenheim, Inst Soil Sci & Land Evaluat, D-70593 Stuttgart, Germany. AB Due to global warming, there is a need to increase the water use efficiency of crops under rainfed agriculture, particularly in semi-arid regions. Therefore, the effect of NPK fertilizer application (with or without liming) on the water use efficiency of a maize/cowpea intercropping system was investigated in the semi-arid part of Brazil. The crops were grown on a strongly acidic, sandy soil with three treatments: (i) Complete NPK fertilizer application with lime (Compl), (ii) Complete NPK fertilizer application without lime (Compl-L) and (iii) Control. On the average, dry matter production was 2.6 times higher with the Compl treatment than in the Control and 1.6 times higher than in the Compl-L treatment. The soil water balance was calculated with two different model approaches (HILLFLOW and EPICSEAR). When checked against measured soil water content during the growing period, both models produced accurate results, but only EPICSEAR was sensitive to the effects of liming and fertilizer application on soil water balance and dry matter production at this site. Comparison between the Compl and the Compl-L treatments shows that the increase in transpirational water use efficiency (WUET) (+63 and +80%, respectively) is mainly due to the application of NPK. Although the site is highly acid, liming was of minor importance for increasing the WUET. However, observations and simulations demonstrate that, through the additional application of lime, the gross water use efficiency (WUEC) in a maize/cowpea intercropping system can be increased by 60% compared to sole application of NPK and by more than 160% compared to the control. CR *EMBRAPA, 1981, SIST CLASS SOL 2A AP *FAO, 1988, 60 FAO MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 *USDA, USDA TECHN B, V1768 *USDA, 1990, EPIC ER PROD IMP CAL BRONSTERT A, 1995, MODELLSYSTEM HILLFLO COOPER PJM, 1987, FIELD CROP RES, V16, P67 DEBARROS I, 2002, 64 U HOH I BOD STAND ECK HV, 1988, AGRON J, V80, P902 GAISER T, 2000, AUST J SOIL RES, V38, P523 GREGORY PJ, 1988, CHALLENGES DRYLAND A, P171 GREGORY PJ, 1989, SOIL CROP WATER MANA, P85 HUNDEKAR ST, 1999, FERT NEWS, V44, P59 KLAPP E, 1962, Z KULTURTECH, V3, P1 PAPULA A, 1982, MATH CHEMIKER PAYNE WA, 1992, CROP SCI, V32, P1010 SABOYA LMF, 2002, NEOTR EC P GERM BRAZ SCHULZE E, 1957, Z ACKER PFLANZENBAU, V103, P22 SHIKLOMANOV I, 2001, INT HYDROLOGICAL SER SINCLAIR TR, 1984, BIOSCIENCE, V34, P36 SIVAKUMAR MVK, 1999, J AGR SCI 2, V132, P139 VEGH KR, 1998, ACTA AGRON HUNG, V46, P35 ZAONGO CGL, 1997, PLANT SOIL, V197, P119 NR 23 TC 3 J9 PLANT SOIL BP 165 EP 171 PY 2004 PD JUN VL 263 IS 1-2 GA 876ZK UT ISI:000225537400015 ER PT J AU Bossel, H TI Policy assessment and simulation of actor orientation for sustainable development SO ECOLOGICAL ECONOMICS LA English DT Article C1 Univ Kassel, Ctr Environm Syst Res, D-34289 Zierenberg, Germany. RP Bossel, H, Univ Kassel, Ctr Environm Syst Res, Galenkoppel 6B, D-34289 Zierenberg, Germany. AB Understanding, assessing, and simulating behavior requires knowledge of the precepts that are explicitly or implicitly orienting behavior. Human actors can be viewed as (conscious) self-organizing systems attempting to remain viable in a diverse environment containing other self-organizing systems (other human actors, organisms, ecosystems, etc.), all driven by their own viability (sustainability) interests. These fundamental system interests, or basic orientors, have emerged in response to general environmental properties and are therefore identical across self-organizing systems: existence, effectiveness, freedom of action, security, adaptability, coexistence. Even in simulated actors learning to 'survive' in a difficult environment, the basic orientors emerge in the (simulated) evolutionary process - but different actors may evolve into different 'cultural types' with different orientor emphasis. Since balanced attention to all basic orientors is crucial for viability, the set of orientors can be used to derive indicators that Facilitate comprehensive viability and sustainability assessments. The paper outlines the theoretical approach of 'orientation theory' and its application to the assessment and simulation of sustainable development issues. The formal approach of mapping indicators on basic orientors and assessing sustainability dynamics is illustrated using Worldwatch indicator time series. In an actor simulation this approach is used to successfully guide a small global model onto a sustainable path with high 'quality of life'. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. 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AAFC, PFRA, Regina, SK S4P 4L2, Canada. EES Pty Ltd, Gaborone, Botswana. Univ Botswana, Dept Environm Sci, Gaborone, Botswana. FAB, Gaborone, Botswana. Conservat Int, Maun, Botswana. RP Ringrose, S, Harry Oppenheimer Okavango Res Ctr, Private Bag 285, Maun, Botswana. AB For purposes of suggesting adaptive and policy options regarding the sustained use of forestry resources in Botswana, an analysis of the whole countrywide satellite data (showing the mean present distribution of vegetation in terms of species abundance and over all density) and the projection of vegetation cover changes using a simulation approach under different climatic scenarios were undertaken. The analysis revealed that changes in vegetation cover types due to human and natural causes have taken place since the first vegetation map was produced in 1971. In the southwest, the changes appear to be more towards an increasing prevalence of thorn trees; in the eastern part of the country where widespread bush encroachment is taking place, the higher population density suggests more human induced (agrarian-degradation) effects, while in the sparsely settled central Kalahari region, changes from tree savanna to shrubs may be indicative of the possible influence of climate with the associated effects of fires and local adaptations. Projection of future vegetation changes to about 2050 indicates degeneration of the major vegetation types due to the expected drying. Based on the projected changes in vegetation, current adaptive and policy arrangements are not adequate and as such a shift from the traditional adaptive approaches to community-based types is suggested. Defining forestry management units and adopting different management plans for the main vegetation stands that are found in Botswana are the major policy options. 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Fdn Eni Enrico Mattei, I-20123 Milan, Italy. Univ Brescia, I-25122 Brescia, Italy. Fdn Eni Enrico Mattei, I-25122 Brescia, Italy. Univ Padua, I-35100 Padua, Italy. Fdn Eni Enrico Mattei, I-35100 Padua, Italy. RP Castelnuovo, E, Bocconi Univ, Corso Magenta 63, I-20123 Milan, Italy. AB What impact does ecological uncertainty have on agents' decisions concerning domestic emissions abatement, physical investments, and R&D expenditures? How sensitive are the answers to these questions when we move from exogenous to endogenous technical change? To investigate these issues we modify the ETC-RICE model described in Buonanno et al. ( 2001) by embedding in it a hazard rate function as in Bosello and Moretto ( 1999). With this model at hand we run numerical optimisations focusing our attention on the control variables of the representative agents, i.e., domestic abatement rate, investments in physical capital, and R&D spending, as well as on the endogenous patterns of GDP level and CO2 emissions. Our results show that uncertainty strongly influences agents behaviour; in particular, agents slow down their emissions in order to maintain a more sustainable growth path. In addition, R&D expenditures trigger the "engine of growth" exclusively when environmental technical change is formalized in an endogenous fashion. However, even if environmental uncertainty may stimulate technical change, long-run growth it turns out to be negatively affected by the former, as also predicted by Clarke and Reed ( 1994) Tsur and Zemel (1996) and Bosello and Moretto (1999). CR *IPCC, 1996, CLIM CHANG 1995 EC S WATSON RT, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, V1, P1 *IPCC, 1996, CLIM CHANG 1995 SCI ALDY JE, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE AGEND BARRO RJ, 1999, EC GROWTH BENTLEY CR, 1997, SCIENCE, V275, P1077 BOSELLO F, 1999, 8099 FEEM BUONANNO P, 2001, 61 FEEM BUONANNO P, 2001, INT AGREEMENTS POLIT, V3, P379 CARRARO C, 1994, EUR ECON REV, V38, P545 CARRARO C, 1998, ENERG ECON, V20, P463 CLARKE HR, 1994, J ECON DYN CONTROL, V18, P991 CROPPER ML, 1976, J ENVIRON ECON MANAG, V3, P1 DOWLATABADI H, 1995, 6 GLOB WARM C 1995 S EYCKMANS J, 1999, SIMULATING RICE COAL FISHER AC, 2000, RESOUR ENERGY ECON, V22, P189 GALEOTTI M, 2002, UNPUB TRADITIONAL EN GJERDE J, 1999, RESOUR ENERGY ECON, V21, P289 GOULDER LH, 2000, J ENVIRON ECON MANAG, V39, P1 GRILICHES Z, 1979, BELL J ECON, V10, P92 GRILICHES Z, 1984, R D PATENTS PRODUCTI GRUBB M, 1997, ENERG POLICY, V25, P159 HALL B, 2000, RES POLICY, V29, P449 HEAL G, 1984, ADV APPL MICROECONOM, V3, P151 JAFFE AB, 2001, TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE JOURDAIN B, 2001, ANN I H POINCARE-AN, V18, P1 KERR RA, 2000, SCIENCE, V281, P499 KIEFER NM, 1988, J ECON LIT, V26, P646 KLETTE TJ, 2000, RES POLICY, V29, P471 KREMER M, STIMULATING IND R D LARSON BA, 1994, ECOL ECON, V11, P77 LOSCHEL A, 2002, 402 FEEM WP MANNE AS, 1992, BUYING GREENHOUSE IN MANNE AS, 1996, HEDGING STRATEGIES G NORDHAUS WD, 1994, MANAGING GLOBAL COMM NORDHAUS WD, 1996, AM ECON REV, V86, P741 NORDHAUS WD, 1997, IIASA WORKSH IND TEC NORDHAUS WD, 1999, 3 TOUL C ENV RES EC PECK SC, 1993, RESOUR ENERGY ECON, V15, P71 PINDYCK RS, 2000, RESOUR ENERGY ECON, V22, P233 PLAMBECK EL, 1996, ENERG POLICY, V24, P783 ROMER PM, 2000, INNOVATION POLICY EC SCHELLING TC, 1992, AM ECON REV, V82, P1 TOL RSJ, 1997, ENVIRON MODEL ASSESS, V3, P3 TORVANGER A, 1997, ENVIRON RESOUR ECON, V9, P103 TRAJTENBERG M, 2000, 7930 NBER WP TSUR Y, 1996, J ECON DYN CONTROL, V20, P1289 WEYANT JP, 1997, IIASA WORKSH IND TEC WEYANT JP, 1999, ENVIRON MODEL ASSESS, V4, P67 YOHE GW, 1996, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V2, P87 NR 50 TC 0 J9 ENVIRON MODEL ASSESS BP 291 EP 301 PY 2003 PD DEC VL 8 IS 4 GA 744YV UT ISI:000186661200003 ER PT J AU Changnon, SA Pielke, RA Changnon, D Sylves, RT Pulwarty, R TI Human factors explain the increased losses from weather and climate extremes SO BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY LA English DT Article C1 Illinois State Water Survey, Atmospher Environm Sect, Champaign, IL 61820 USA. Natl Ctr Atmospher Res, Environm & Societal Impacts Grp, Boulder, CO 80307 USA. No Illinois Univ, Dept Geog, De Kalb, IL 60115 USA. Univ Delaware, Dept Polit Sci, Newark, DE USA. NOAA, Off Global Programs, Silver Springs, MD USA. RP Changnon, SA, Illinois State Water Survey, Atmospher Environm Sect, 2204 Griffith Dr, Champaign, IL 61820 USA. AB Societal impacts from weather and climate extremes, and trends in those impacts, are a function of both climate and society. United States losses resulting from weather extremes have grown steadily with time. Insured property losses have trebled since 1960, but deaths from extremes have not grown except for those due to floods and heat waves. Data on losses are difficult to find and must be carefully adjusted before meaningful assessments can be made. Adjustments to historical loss data assembled since the late 1940s shows that most of the upward trends found in financial losses are due to societal shifts leading to ever-growing vulnerability to weather and climate extremes. Geographical locations of the large loss trends establish that population growth and demographic shifts are the major factors behind the increasing losses from weather-climate extremes. Most weather and climate extremes in the United States do not exhibit steady, multidecadal increases found in their loss values. Without major changes in societal responses to weather and climate extremes, it is reasonable to predict ever-increasing losses even without any detrimental climate changes. Recognition of these trends in societal vulnerability to weather-climate extremes suggests that the present focus on mitigating the greenhouse effect should be complemented by a greater emphasis on adaptation. Identifying and understanding this societal vulnerability has great importance for understanding the nation's economy, in guiding governmental policies, and for planning for future mitigative activities including ways for society to adapt to possible effects of a changing climate. CR *AM INS ASS, 1999, PROP CAS INS CLIM CH *BIP TASK FORC FUN, 1996, 1044 BIP TASK FORC F *CACNH, 1999, COSTS NAT DIS FRAM A *HEINZ STUD GROUP, 1999, HIDD COSTS COAST HAZ *IPCC, 1996, CLIM CHANG 1995 SCI CHANGNON D, 1997, J APPL METEOROL, V36, P1202 CHANGNON D, 1998, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V38, P435 CHANGNON SA, 1995, PREPARING GLOBAL CHA, P47 CHANGNON SA, 1996, B AM METEOROL SOC, V77, P1497 CHANGNON SA, 1996, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V32, P411 CHANGNON SA, 1996, GREAT FLOOD 1993, P3 CHANGNON SA, 1997, B AM METEOROL SOC, V78, P425 CHANGNON SA, 1997, P WORKSH SOC EC IMP, P19 CHANGNON SA, 1999, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V42, P51 CHANGNON SA, 1999, METEOR APPL, V5, P125 CHANGNON SA, 1999, NAT HAZARDS, V18, P287 FLAVIN C, 1994, WORLD WATCH, V7, P10 KARL TR, 1998, B AM METEOROL SOC, V79, P231 KUNKEL KE, 1999, B AM METEOROL SOC, V80, P1077 KUNREUTHER H, 1998, PAYING PRICE, P1 LARSON E, 1998, TIME, V52, P63 LECOMTE E, 1993, CLIMATE CHANGE INSUR, P13 PIELKE RA, 1995, HURRICANE ANDREW S F PIELKE RA, 1997, P WORKSH SOC EC IMP, P3 PIELKE RA, 1998, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V8, P159 PIELKE RA, 1998, WEATHER FORECAST 2, V13, P621 PIELKE RA, 1999, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V42, P118 PIELKE RA, 1999, FLOODS RIEBSAME WE, 1991, DROUGHT NATURAL RESO ROTH RJ, 1996, IMPACTS RESPONSES WE, P101 SYLVES R, 1996, DISASTER MANAGEMENT SYLVES R, 1998, DISASTERS COASTAL ZO VANDERVINK G, 1998, EOS, V79, P536 NR 33 TC 14 J9 BULL AMER METEOROL SOC BP 437 EP 442 PY 2000 PD MAR VL 81 IS 3 GA 305EB UT ISI:000086525500004 ER PT J AU PenningRowsell, EC Johnson, C Tunstall, S TI 'Signals' from pre-crisis discourse: Lessons from UK flooding for global environmental policy change? SO GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS LA English DT Article C1 Middlesex Univ, Flood Hazard Res Ctr, Enfield EN3 4SA, Middx, England. RP Penning-Rowsell, E, Middlesex Univ, Flood Hazard Res Ctr, Enfield EN3 4SA, Middx, England. AB This paper evaluates policy accelerations after past flood crises in the UK (in 1947, 1953, 1998 and 2000) and explores their value as surrogates or metaphors for how governments might respond with policy changes to the local expressions of global climate and environmental change in the future. We find that these past policy change accelerations were, in general, not based on the development of new ideas but on bringing forward existing ideas that were already the subject of widespread professional or public discourse. We suggest, therefore, that we may be able to detect now, as 'signals' within current policy discourse, the embryos of the policy shifts that are likely to come about as part of any crisis-response adaptation to future climate change. If this is the case, then we believe that those with policy responsibilities now may be able to begin carefully and proactively to prepare the ground for such policy changes ahead of the crisis events that will alone trigger their acceleration and adoption. (C) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 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RP Magadza, CHD, Univ Zimbabwe, Lake Kariba Res Stn, Box 48, Kariba, Zimbabwe. AB Climate change impacts on African human settlements arise from a number of climate change-related causes, notably sea level changes, impacts on water resources, extreme weather events, food security, increased health risks from vector borne diseases, and temperature-related morbidity in urban environments. Some coastlines and river deltas of Africa have densely populated low-lying areas, which would be affected by a rise in sea level. Other coastal settlements will be subjected to increased coastal erosion. Recent flooding in East Africa highlighted the vulnerability of flood plain settlements and the need to develop adaptive strategies for extreme weather events management and mitigation. In the semi arid and arid zones many settlements are associated with inland drainage water sources. Increases in drought will enhance water supply related vulnerabilities. Inter-basin and international water transfers raise the need for adequate legal frameworks that ensure equity among participating nations. Similarly, water supply and irrigation reservoirs in seasonal river catchments might fail, leading to poor sanitation in urban areas as well as food shortage. Hydroelectric power generation could be restricted in drought periods, and where it is a major contributor to the energy budget, reduced power generation could lead to a multiplicity of other impacts. States are advised to develop other sources of renewable energy. Temperature changes will lead to altered distribution of disease vectors such as mosquitoes, making settlements currently free of vector borne diseases vulnerable. Rapid breeding of the housefly could create a menace associated with enteric disorders, especially in conditions of poor sanitation. The dry savannahs of Africa are projected as possible future food deficit areas. Recurrent crop failures would lead to transmigration into urban areas. Pastoralists are likely to undertake more trans-boundary migrations and probably come into conflict with settled communities. Adaptive measures will involve methods of coastal defences (where applicable), a critical review of the energy sector, both regionally and nationally, a rigorous adherence to city hygiene procedures, an informed agricultural industry that is capable of adapting to changing climate in terms of cropping strategies, and innovations in environment design to maximise human comfort at minimum energy expenditure. In the savannah and arid areas water resource management systems will be needed to optimise water resource use and interstate co-operation where such resources are shared. Climate change issues discussed here raise the need for state support for more research and education in impacts of climate change on human settlements in Africa. CR 1992, SPORE, V39, P1 1997, MICROSOFT ENCARTER 7 CAPONERA DA, 1996, REV EUROPEAN COMMUNI, V5, P97 COUSINS B, 1996, IDS BULL-I DEV STUD, V27, P41 DELATTRE A, 1988, OECD OBSERVER, V153, P19 HULME M, 1995, CLIMATE CHANGE SO AF JALLOW BP, 1996, CLIMATE RES, V6, P165 LADO C, 1995, INDONESIAN J GEOGRAP, V27, P31 MAGADZA CHD, 1984, ZIMBABWE SCI NEWS, V18, P63 MAGADZA CHD, 1994, FOOD POLICY, V19, P165 MAGADZA CHD, 1996, LAKE RESERVOIR RES M, V2, P89 MCMICHAEL AJ, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE HUMAN MIMURA N, 1998, GLOBAL WARMING POTEN REIBSAME WE, 1995, CLIMATE CHANGES INT SALAM AM, 1991, SCI TECHNOLOGY SCI E STRZEPEK KK, 1996, CLIMATE RES, V6 WATSON RT, 1998, REGIONAL IMPACTS CLI, V1, P1 WORLD B, 1996, ENV SUSTAINABLE DEV NR 18 TC 1 J9 ENVIRON MONIT ASSESS BP 193 EP 205 PY 2000 PD MAR VL 61 IS 1 GA 300UB UT ISI:000086270100016 ER PT J AU Ogden, J Basher, L McGlone, M TI Fire, forest regeneration and links with early human habitation: Evidence from New Zealand SO ANNALS OF BOTANY LA English DT Article C1 Univ Auckland, Sch Environm & Marine Sci, Auckland 1, New Zealand. Landcare Res, Lincoln, New Zealand. RP Ogden, J, Univ Auckland, Sch Environm & Marine Sci, Auckland 1, New Zealand. AB Zealand forests burn less frequently than tussock grasslands, heath or shrublands. Species composition, past disturbance and stand condition determine inflammability and fuel load, and consequent fire intensity and spatial extent. Before people arrived, fires were ignited by lightning during drought years on the eastern sides of both islands. Volcanism occurring every 300-600 years was associated with fires in the central North Island. A review of radiocarbon-dated charcoal from the eastern South Island, and of evidence for fire in pollen profiles from the North Island, provide the basis for an assessment of fire frequency. Forest fires have occurred on both New Zealand's islands throughout the Holocene at least every few centuries, until the last millennium when frequency increased. The 'return time' of fire at any one place in the forested landscape was probably one or two millennia. Burned areas usually succeeded to forest again before the next inflagration. Consequently fire adaptation is infrequent in the New Zealand flora, and Polynesian forest clearance was rapid and largely permanent. There is an indication of an increase in fire frequency in the late Holocene, and a clear signal associated with people approx. 700 years BP. Separating the earliest anthropogenic fires from the background level of natural burning will be difficult without additional evidence. (C) 1998 Annals of Botany Company. 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Purdue Univ, Dept Agr Econ, W Lafayette, IN 47907 USA. Cent Res Inst Dryland Agr, Hyderabad, Andhra Pradesh, India. RP Southworth, J, Indiana Univ, Sch Publ & Environm Affairs, 1315 E 10th St, Bloomington, IN 47405 USA. AB This modeling study addresses the potential impacts of climate change and changing climate variability due to increased atmospheric CO2 concentration on soybean (Glycine max (L.) Merrill) yields in the Midwestern Great Lakes Region. Nine representative farm locations and six future climate scenarios were analyzed using the crop growth model SOYGRO. Under the future climate scenarios earlier planting dates produced soybean yield increases of up to 120% above current levels in the central and northern areas of the study region. In the southern areas, comparatively small increases (0.1 to 20%) and small decreases (-0.1 to -25%) in yield are found. The decreases in yield occurred under the Hadley Center greenhouse gas run (HadCM2-GHG), representing a greater warming, and the doubled climate variability scenario - a more extreme and variable climate. Optimum planting dates become later in the southern regions. CO2 fertilization effects (555 ppmv) are found to be significant for soybean, increasing yields around 20% under future climate scenarios. For the study region as a whole the climate changes modeled in this research would have an overall beneficial effect, with mean soybean yield increases of 40% over current levels. CR *IPCC, 1990, SCI ASS CLIM CHANG R *IPCC, 1995, 2 ASS REP CLIM CHANG *NAT AGR STAT SERV, 1997, CENS AGR *NAT ASS SYNTH TEA, 2001, CLIM CHANG IMP US PO, P620 *USDA, 1994, MISC PUB USDA, V1492 ADAMS RM, 1990, NATURE, V345, P219 ALLEN LH, 1987, GLOBAL BIOGEOCHEM CY, V1, P1 BARROW E, 1996, CLIMATE RES, V7, P195 CARNELL RE, 1998, CLIM DYNAM, V14, P369 CHIOTTI QP, 1995, J RURAL STUD, V11, P335 DHAKHWA GB, 1997, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V87, P253 FERRIS R, 1998, CROP SCI, V38, P948 FISCHER G, 1995, ASA SPECIAL PUBLICAT, V59 HARRISON PA, 1996, CLIMATE RES, V7, P225 HOOGENBOOM G, 1995, ASA SPEC PUBL, V59, P51 HULME M, 1999, NATURE, V397, P688 JONES J, 1988, FLORIDA AGR EXPT STA JONES JW, 1999, P WORLD SOYB RES C A, V6, P209 KAISER HM, 1995, AGR DIMENSIONS GLOBA KITTEL TG, 1996, VEMAP PHASE 1 DATABA LAL M, 1999, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V93, P53 LIANG XZ, 1995, GLOBAL PLANET CHANGE, V10, P217 MEARNS LO, 1984, J CLIM APPL METEOROL, V23, P1601 MEARNS LO, 1995, ASA SPEC PUBL, V59, P123 MEARNS LO, 1996, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V32, P257 MEARNS LO, 1997, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V35, P367 PEIRIS DR, 1996, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V79, P271 PHILLIPS DL, 1996, AGR SYST, V52, P481 RIND D, 1991, DEV ATMOSPHERIC SCI, V19 RITCHIE JT, 1989, POTENTIAL EFFECTS GL ROSENBERG NJ, 1992, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V21, P385 ROSENZWEIG C, 1994, IMPLICATIONS CLIMATE SCHIMMELPFENNIG D, 1996, AER740 USDA NAT RES SEMENOV MA, 1996, CLIMATE RES, V7, P271 SEMENOV MA, 1997, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V35, P397 SHAW RH, 1966, PLANT ENV EFFICIENT, P73 SIQUEIRA OJ, 1994, IMPLICATIONS CLIMATE SOUTHWORTH J, 2000, AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON, V82, P139 SPECHT JE, 1986, CROP SCI, V26, P922 THORNTON PK, 1997, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V83, P95 WITTWER SH, 1995, FOOD CLIMATE CARBON WOLF J, 1996, CLIMATE RES, V7, P253 NR 42 TC 2 J9 CLIMATIC CHANGE BP 447 EP 475 PY 2002 PD JUN VL 53 IS 4 GA 545JT UT ISI:000175214400003 ER PT J AU KOSOBUD, RF DALY, TA TI GLOBAL CONFLICT OR COOPERATION OVER THE CO2 CLIMATE IMPACT SO KYKLOS LA English DT Article C1 ARGONNE NATL LAB,ARGONNE,IL 60439. RP KOSOBUD, RF, UNIV ILLINOIS,CHICAGO,IL 60680. CR BUTZER KW, 1980, PROF GEOGR, V32, P269 DARGE RC, 1979, FEB P WORLD CLIM C G, P652 EDMONDS J, 1983, GLOBAL CARBON EMISSI HAEFELE W, 1981, ENERGY FINITE WORLD KEELING CD, 1973, TELLUS, V25, P1974 KENNY SM, 1977, NUCLEAR POWER ISSUES KOSOBUD RF, 1983, GOVT ENERGY POLICY LAURMANN JA, 1983, CARBON DIOXIDE CURRE MANABE S, 1967, J ATMOS SCI, V24, P241 MANNE AS, 1976, BELL J ECON, V7, P379 NORDHAUS WD, 1980, 565 COWL F DISC PAP NORDHAUS WD, 1983, CHANGING CLIMATE REVELLE RR, 1983, CHANGING CLIMATE NR 13 TC 9 J9 KYKLOS BP 638 EP 659 PY 1984 VL 37 IS 4 GA ACC76 UT ISI:A1984ACC7600006 ER PT J AU Kahn, ME TI Two measures of progress in adapting to climate change SO GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS LA English DT Article C1 Tufts Univ, Medford, MA 02155 USA. RP Kahn, ME, Stanford Univ, Dept Econ, Stanford, CA 94305 USA. AB Adaptation will play a key role in determining the economic and social costs of climate change. One important measure of adaptation is reductions in deaths caused by climate events. This paper uses two new data sets to test the hypothesis that, in recent years, climate events cause less deaths than in the past. Using data on deaths caused by natural disasters and data on skin cancer death rates in warmer and cooler US states, this paper reports evidence in favor of the adaptation progress hypothesis. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR GALLUP JL, 1999, INT REGIONAL SCI REV, V22, P179 KUNST AE, 1993, AM J EPIDEMIOL, V137, P331 MCCARTHY J, 2001, HUMAN HLTH, P453 MIRZA MMQ, 2002, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V12, P127 NICHOLLS RJ, 1999, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHA S, V9, PS69 PIVER WT, 1999, ENVIRON HEALTH PERSP, V107, P911 SIDDIQUE AK, 1991, J DIARRHOEAL DIS RES, V9, P310 SMITHERS J, 1997, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V7, P129 TOBEY JA, 1992, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V2, P215 WALKER J, 2002, WORLD DISASTER REPOR NR 10 TC 0 J9 GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANGE BP 307 EP 312 PY 2003 PD DEC VL 13 IS 4 GA 751BT UT ISI:000187033500007 ER PT J AU NYERGES, AE TI THE ECOLOGY OF WEALTH-IN-PEOPLE - AGRICULTURE, SETTLEMENT, AND SOCIETY ON THE PERPETUAL FRONTIER SO AMERICAN ANTHROPOLOGIST LA English DT Article RP NYERGES, AE, UNIV KENTUCKY,DEPT ANTHROPOL,LEXINGTON,KY 40506. AB For the Susu of northwestern Sierra Leone, rural settlement dynamics reflect a frontier culture history and the perpetuation of frontier sociopolitical arrangements in village life. Under frontier conditions people are wealth. The competition among male elders for wealth-in-people is a major determinant of village movements and the organization and deployment of agricultural labor. In this article, I explore the implications of frontier social arrangements, as illustrated in the careers and lives of individual elder men, for the ecology of swidden agriculture. One significant result is a competitive scramble for labor, which both hinders crop production and leads to problems of intensification and resource degradation. I conclude that local problems of resource management are the result of individual efforts to achieve and maintain social position in the context of established systems of hierarchy. CR 1928, PARLIAMENTARY PAPERS, V18 *US POP REF BUR, 1988, 1988 WORLD POP DAT S ANTHONY DW, 1990, AM ANTHROPOL, V92, P895 BARNES JA, 1962, MAN, V62, P5 BENNETT JW, 1976, ECOLOGICAL TRANSITIO BILLINGTON RA, 1967, FRONTIER, P3 BLEDSOE CH, 1980, WOMEN MARRIAGE KPELL BOHANNAN P, 1954, AFRICA, V24, P2 BOSERUP E, 1965, CONDITIONS AGR GROWT BOSERUP E, 1981, POPULATION TECHNOLOG BROOKS GE, 1985, WORKING PAPERS SERIE, V1 BROOKS GE, 1986, CAH ETUD AFR, V26, P43 CAMERON N, 1991, YEARB PHYS ANTHROPOL, V34, P211 COLSON E, 1988, SCIENCE, V240, P88 CONANT FP, 1962, ANN NY ACAD SCI, V96, P539 CONANT FP, 1989, AM ANTHROPOL, V91, P1074 CONKLIN HC, 1957, FAO12 FOR DEV PAP COQUERYVIDROVIT.C, 1985, POLITICAL EC CONT AF, P94 CUNNINGHAM MK, 1991, THESIS U KENTUCKY CURRENS G, 1976, HUM ORGAN, V35, P355 CURRENS GE, 1974, THESIS U OREGON ANN CURRENS GE, 1975, LIBERIAN EC MANAGEME, V3, P39 DAZEVEDO W, 1962, ANN NY ACAD SCI, V96, P512 DONALD L, 1970, AFRICAN FOOD PRODUCT, P164 DORJAHN VR, 1958, AM ANTHROPOL, V60, P83860 DORJAHN VR, 1962, J AFR HIST, V3, P390 ELLEN R, 1982, ENV SUBSISTENCE SYST FLANAGAN JG, 1989, ANNU REV ANTHROPOL, V18, P245 FORAY CP, 1977, AFRICAN HIST DICT FRECHOU H, 1962, CAHIERS I SCI EC 5 S, V129, P109 GEERTZ C, 1963, AGR INVOLUTION PROCE GOODY J, 1971, TECHNOLOGY TRADITION GUYER JI, 1990, HUM ECOL, V18, P143 HARRIS M, 1979, CULTURAL MATERIALISM HASWELL M, 1975, NATURE POVERTY CASE HEMMING J, 1985, CHANGES AMAZON BASIN HOPKINS NS, 1971, PAPERS MANDING, P99 HOWARD AM, 1975, PAN AFRICAN J, V8, P247 HOWARD AM, 1979, LIBERIAN STUDIES MON, V6, P45 HUSSASHMORE R, 1989, AFRICAN FOOD PRODU 1 ISAAC BL, 1982, CENTRAL ISSUES ANTHR, V4, P1 JACKSON M, 1977, KURANKO DIMENSIONS S JANZEN DH, 1973, SCIENCE, V182, P1212 JOHNNY M, 1981, AFRICA, V51, P596 KARP I, 1978, AFRICA, V48, P1 KOPYTOFF I, 1977, SLAVERY AFRICA HIST, P3 KOPYTOFF I, 1987, AFRICAN FRONTIER REP, P121 KOPYTOFF I, 1987, AFRICAN FRONTIER REP, P3 LITTLE KL, 1948, AFR AFF, V47, P23 LITTLE KL, 1948, SOCIOL REV, V40, P37 LITTLE KL, 1951, MENDE RICE FARM IT 2, V5, P227 LITTLE KL, 1951, MENDE RICE FARM IT 2, V5, P371 LITTLE KL, 1951, MENDE SIERRA LEONE W LITTLE PD, 1987, MONOGRAPHS DEV ANTHR MARGOLIS M, 1977, AM ETHNOL, V4, P42 MCCAY B, 1987, QUESTION COMMONS CUL MCFALLS JA, 1984, DISEASE FERTILITY MEILLASSOUX C, 1981, MAIDENS MEAL MONEY C MILLER DH, 1991, FOREST CONSERVATION, V35, P84 MORAN E, 1988, MONOGRAPHS EC ANTHR, V5, P199 MORAN E, 1990, ECOSYSTEM APPROACH A MORAN EF, 1981, DEV AMAZON MORAN EF, 1983, DILEMMA AMAZONIAN DE MURPHY WP, 1987, AFRICAN FRONTIER, P123 NETTING RM, 1965, AFRICA, V35, P422 NETTING RM, 1986, CULTURAL ECOLOGY NYERGES AE, 1987, LANDS RISK 3 WORLD L, P316 NYERGES AE, 1987, SCIENCE, V238, P1637 NYERGES AE, 1988, MASCA RES PAPERS SCI, V5, P86 NYERGES AE, 1988, THESIS U PENNSYLVANI NYERGES AE, 1989, HUM ECOL, V17, P379 NYERGES AE, 1991, 91ST ANN M AM ANTHR ORLOVE BS, 1980, ANNU REV ANTHROPOL, V9, P235 ORTNER SB, 1984, COMP STUD SOC HIST, V26, P126 RAPPAPORT RA, 1967, PIGS ANCESTORS RITUA, V1, P1 RICHARDS P, 1985, INDIGENOUS AGR REVOL RICHARDS P, 1986, LONDON RES SERIES GE, V11 RODNEY WA, 1970, HIST UPPER GUINEA CO SCHAFFER M, 1980, MANDINKO ETHNOGRAPHY SCHMINK M, 1984, FRONTIER EXPANSION A SHIPTON P, 1984, ETHNOLOGY, V23, P117 SHIPTON PM, 1984, MAN, V19, P613 SOULE ME, 1991, SCIENCE, V253, P744 SPOONER B, 1972, POPULATION GROWTH AN SPOONER B, 1982, DESERTIFICATION DEV SPOONER B, 1984, ECOLOGY DEV RATIONAL SPOONER B, 1987, MONOGRAPHS DEV ANTHR, P58 STONE GD, 1984, J ANTHROPOL RES, V40, P90 STRICKLAND GT, 1984, HUNTERS TROPICAL MED TEGLER B, 1983, ENV PLANT ASS KILIMI THAYER JS, 1981, THESIS U MICHIGAN AN THAYER JS, 1982, UNPUB PERSISTENCE SL THAYER JS, 1983, AM ETHNOL, V10, P116 THOMAS WL, 1956, MANS ROLE CHANGING F TURNER FJ, 1922, YALE REV, V12, P1 TURNER FJ, 1961, FRONTIER SECTION SEL, P28 VAYDA AP, 1975, ANNU REV ANTHROPOL, V4, P293 VAYDA AP, 1986, REV ANTHR, V13, P295 WORSTER D, 1988, ENDS EARTH PERSPECTI NR 99 TC 8 J9 AMER ANTHROPOL BP 860 EP 881 PY 1992 PD DEC VL 94 IS 4 GA KD398 UT ISI:A1992KD39800004 ER PT J AU Wilcox, BA Fowler, CT TI Ecosystem health and the political process: Ullsten and Rapport revisited SO ECOSYSTEM HEALTH LA English DT Article C1 Univ Hawaii Manoa, John A Burns Sch Med, Div Ecol & Hlth, Honolulu, HI 96822 USA. RP Wilcox, BA, Univ Hawaii Manoa, John A Burns Sch Med, Div Ecol & Hlth, Honolulu, HI 96822 USA. AB Declining ecosystem health worldwide arguably is partly a consequence of a cultural and political economic disconnect between policy makers and scientists. Previous authors of "Viewpoint" describe this gap in terms of the relative inaction of policy makers in response to warnings from the scientific community. We provide an expanded perspective by considering the sociocultural evolution of political economies, and by contextualizing this dilemma within our overspecialized contemporary society. Our commentary suggests the ecosystem health community can work toward narrowing the policy-science disjunction despite the disparate cultures of these communities. CR *WHO, 1986, WHO REG PUBL EUR, V44, P1 ANTONOVSKY A, 1987, UNRAVELING MYSTERY H BENNETT JW, 1990, EARTH TRANSFORMED HU, P69 COSTANZA R, 1992, ECOSYSTEM HLTH NEW G HARRISON LE, 2000, CULTURE MATTERS VALU JOHNSON A, 2000, EVOLUTION HUMAN SOC KALLAND A, 2000, INDIGENOUS ENV KNOWL, P319 KENNEDY P, 1987, RISE FALL GREAT POWE KLARE MT, 2001, FOREIGN AFF, V80, P49 MAGEAU MT, 1995, ECOSYST HEALTH, V1, P201 MCCUBBIN HI, 1998, STRESS COPING HLTH F NEVAH Z, 1984, LANDSCAPE ECOLOGY TH RAPPAPORT RA, 1977, EVOLUTION SOCIAL SYS, V1, P49 REDMAN CL, 1999, HUMAN IMPACTS ANCIEN ULLSTEN O, 2001, ECOSYST HEALTH, V7, P2 NR 15 TC 2 J9 ECOSYST HEALTH BP 136 EP 140 PY 2001 PD SEP VL 7 IS 3 GA 554HB UT ISI:000175728800003 ER PT J AU Thomas, DSG Twyman, C TI Equity and justice in climate change adaptation amongst natural-resource-dependent societies SO GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS LA English DT Article C1 Univ Oxford, Sch Geog & Environm, Oxford OX1 3TB, England. Univ Sheffield, Dept Geog, Sheffield S10 2TN, S Yorkshire, England. RP Thomas, DSG, Univ Oxford, Sch Geog & Environm, Mansfield Rd, Oxford OX1 3TB, England. AB Issues of equity and justice are high on international agendas dealing with the impacts of global climate change. But what are the implications of climate change for equity and justice amongst vulnerable groups at local and sub-national levels? We ask this question for three reasons: (a) there is a considerable literature suggesting that the poorest and most vulnerable groups will disproportionately experience the negative effects of 21st century climate change; (b) such changes are likely to impact significantly on developing world countries, where natural-resource dependency is high; and (c) international conventions increasingly recognise the need to centrally engage resource stakeholders in agendas in order to achieve their desired aims, as part of more holistic approaches to sustainable development. These issues however have implications for distributive and procedural justice, particularly when considered within the efforts of the UNFCCC. The issues are examined through an evaluation of key criteria relating to climate change scenarios and vulnerability in the developing world, and second through two southern African case studies that explore the ways in which livelihoods are differentially impacted by (i) inequitable natural-resource use policies, (ii) community-based natural-resource management programmes. Finally, we consider the placement of climate change amongst the package of factors affecting equity in natural-resource use, and whether this placement creates a case for considering climate change as 'special' amongst livelihood disturbing factors in the developing world. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *DFID, 1997, EL WORLD POV CHALL 2 *DFID, 2002, EL HUNG DFID FOOD SE WATSON RT, 1998, REGIONAL IMPACTS CLI, V1, P1 *IPCC, 2001, CLIM CHANG 2001 *WORLDBANK, 2000, CAN AFR CLAIM 21 CEN *WORLDBANK, 2000, WORLD DEV REP 2000 2 *WORLDBANK, 2002, POV CLIM CHANG RED V, P54 *WRI, 1994, WORLD RES GUID GLOB ADGER WN, 2000, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V90, P738 ADGER WN, 2002, AMBIO, V31, P358 ADGER WN, 2003, ENVIRON PLANN A, V35, P1095 ADGER WN, 2003, PROGR DEV STUDIES, V3, P179 ADGER WN, 2005, IN PRESS EQUITY JUST ANAND P, 2001, J ECON PSYCHOL, V22, P247 ASHLEY C, 2001, DEV POLICY REV, V19, P395 BARKER T, 2003, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V13, P1 BEG N, 2002, CLIM POLICY, V2, P129 BEINART W, 1995, ENV HIST BERKES F, 2002, CONSERV ECOL, V5, P1 BERRY S, 1989, AFRICA, V59, P1 BROAD R, 1994, WORLD DEV, V22, P811 BROWN K, 2002, GEOGR J 1, V168, P6 BRYCESON DF, 1996, WORLD DEV, V24, P97 BRYCESON DF, 2002, WORLD DEV, V30, P725 BURTON I, 1996, ADAPTING CLIMATE CHA, P55 BURTON I, 2002, CLIM POLICY, V2, P145 CHAMBERS R, 1983, RURAL DEV PUTTING LA CLAY E, 1984, ROOM MANOEUVRE EXPLO CORELL E, 1999, INT NEGOTIATION, V4, P197 CRUSH J, 1995, POWER DEV DENTON F, 2000, CLIMATE CHANGE SUSTA DERCON S, 1996, J DEV STUD, V32, P850 DESANKER P, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, P489 ELLIS F, 1998, J DEV STUD, V35, P1 ELLIS F, 2000, RURAL LIVELIHOODS DI FEW R, 2003, PROGR DEV STUDIES, V3, P43 GRUBB M, 2001, CLIM POLICY, V1, P269 HULME M, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE SO AF KATES RW, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P5 KENT S, 1996, CULTURAL DIVERSITY 2, P125 KIKAR GA, 2000, WORKSH MEAS IMP CLIM LEACH M, 1999, WORLD DEV, V27, P225 LOGAN BI, 2002, GEOFORUM, V33, P1 METZ B, 2002, CLIM POLICY, V2, P211 MEYER WB, 1998, HUMAN CHOICE CLIMATE, V3 MILLER D, 1992, ETHICS, V102, P555 MORTIMORE MJ, 2001, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V11, P49 MOSER CON, 1998, WORLD DEV, V26, P1 MURTON J, 1999, GEOGR J 1, V165, P37 OSAKI M, 1984, AFRICAN STUDY MONOGR, V5, P49 PAAVOLA J, 2002, 23 U E ANGL TYND CTR PELLING M, 1999, GEOFORUM, V30, P249 PIETERSE JN, 1999, DEV CHANGE, V30, P183 RAMAKRISHNAN PS, 1998, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V39, P583 RAYNER S, 2000, CLIMATE CHANGE ITS L REIJ C, 2001, FARMER INNOVATION AF RINGIUS L, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE AFRIC, P154 SCOONES I, 1999, POLICIES SOIL FERTIL SCOONES I, 2001, DYNAMICS DIVERSITY S SKOUFIAS E, 2003, WORLD DEV, V31, P1087 SMIT B, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, P879 SOKONA Y, 2001, CLIM POLICY, V1, P117 THOMAS DSG, 2002, POVERTY POLICY NATUR THOMAS DSG, 2003, 3 MILLENNIUM ROLE ST, P3 THOMAS DSG, 2004, LAND DEGRAD DEV, V15, P215 TIFFEN M, 1994, MORE PEOPLE LESS ERO TOL RSJ, 2000, MUCH DAMAGE WILL CLI TOMPKINS EL, 2004, ECOLOGY SOC, V9, P10 TSING AL, 1999, AMBIO, V28, P197 TWYMAN C, 1998, THIRD WORLD Q, V19, P745 TWYMAN C, 2001, REV AFRICAN POLITICA, V87, P9 TWYMAN C, 2002, INT C WAT RES INT MA TWYMAN C, 2004, GEOFORUM, V35, P69 WASHINGTON R, IN PRESS WATER RESOU NR 74 TC 4 J9 GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANGE BP 115 EP 124 PY 2005 PD JUL VL 15 IS 2 GA 931VR UT ISI:000229514100005 ER PT J AU Ebohon, OJ Ikeme, AJ TI Decomposition analysis of CO2 emission intensity between oilproducing and non-oll-producing sub-Saharan African countries SO ENERGY POLICY LA English DT Article C1 De Montfort Univ, Sch Architecture, Developing World Built Environm Res Unit, Leicester LE1 9BH, Leics, England. RP Ebohon, OJ, De Montfort Univ, Sch Architecture, Developing World Built Environm Res Unit, Leicester LE1 9BH, Leics, England. AB The need to decompose CO2 emission intensity is predicated upon the need for effective climate change mitigation and adaptation policies. Such analysis enables key variables that instigate CO2 emission intensity to be identified while at the same time providing opportunities to verify the mitigation and adaptation capacities of countries. However, Most CO2 decomposition analysis has been conducted for the developed economics and little attention has been paid to sub-Saharan Africa. The need for such an analysis for SSA is overwhelming for several reasons. Firstly, the region is amongst the most vulnerable to climate change. Secondly, there are disparities in the amount and composition of energy consumption and the levels of economic growth and development in the region. Thus, a decomposition analysis of CO2, emission intensity for SSA affords the opportunity to identify key influencing variables and to see how they compare among countries in the region. Also, attempts have been made to distinguish between oil and non-oil-producing SSA countries. To this effect a comparative static analysis Of CO2 emission intensity for oil-producing and non oil-producing SSA countries for the periods 1971-1998 has been undertaken, using the refined Laspeyres decomposition model. Our analysis confirms the findings for other regions that CO2 emission intensity is attributable to energy consumption intensity, CO2 emission coefficient of energy types and economic structure. Particularly, CO2 emission coefficient of energy use was found to exercise the most influence on CO2, emission intensity for both oil and non-oil-producing sub-Saharan African countries in the first sub-interval period of our investigation from 1971-1981. In the second subinterval of 1981-1991, energy intensity and structural effect were the two major influencing factors on emission intensity for the two groups of countries. However, energy intensity effect had the most pronounced impact on CO, emission intensity in non-oil-producing sub-Saharan African countries, while the structural effect explained most of the increase in CO2 emission intensity among the oil-producing countries. Finally, for the period 1991-1998. structural effect accounted for much of the decrease in intensity among non-oil-producers, while CO2 emission coefficient of energy use was the major force driving the decrease among oil-producing countries. The dynamic changes in the CO2 emission intensity and energy intensity effects for the two groups of countries suggest that fuel switching had been predominantly towards more carbon-intensive production in oil-producing countries and less carbon-intensive production in non-oil-producing SSA countries. In addition to the decomposition analysis, the article discusses policy implications of the results. We hope that the information and analyses provided here would help inform national energy and climate policy makers in SSA of the relative weaknesses and possible areas of strategic emphasis in their planning processes for mitigating the effects of climate change. (c) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 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RP MacIver, DC, Atmospher Environm Serv, 4905 Dufferin St, Toronto, ON M3H 5T4, Canada. AB This paper summarizes the recommendations from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Workshop on Adaptation to Climate Variability and Change convened in Costa Rica in 1998. Specifically, this paper also summarizes the adaptive management science issues and, in many cases, sectoral options. The Workshop, organized by Canada and Costa Rica, involved more than 200 experts and focused on adaptation science, adaptive management and adaptation options for climate variability and change. CR MACIVER DC, 1998, ADAPTATION CLIMATE V MACIVER DC, 1999, ADAPTATION CLIMATE V WHEATON EE, 1999, IN PRESS MITIGATION NR 3 TC 2 J9 ENVIRON MONIT ASSESS BP 1 EP 8 PY 2000 PD MAR VL 61 IS 1 GA 300UB UT ISI:000086270100001 ER PT J AU Azar, C Schneider, SH TI Are the economic costs of stabilising the atmosphere prohibitive? SO ECOLOGICAL ECONOMICS LA English DT Article C1 Univ Gothenburg, Chalmers Univ Technol, Dept Phys Resource Theory, S-41296 Gothenburg, Sweden. Stanford Univ, Dept Biol Sci, Stanford, CA 94305 USA. RP Azar, C, Univ Gothenburg, Chalmers Univ Technol, Dept Phys Resource Theory, S-41296 Gothenburg, Sweden. AB Macro economic studies of the costs of reducing CO2 emissions generally estimate the global cost of stabilising the atmospheric concentrations of CO2 in the range 350-550 ppm in trillions of USD. This creates the impression that the cost of CO2 reductions is so large that it threatens economic development. But, presented in another way, a completely different picture emerges. There is widespread agreement amongst the more pessimistic macro economic studies that stringent carbon controls are compatible with a significant increase in global and regional economic welfare. Even if the cost of CO2 abatement rises to 5% of global income per year by the end of this century, this reduction is minor compared with the tenfold increase in global income that is expected. Since income is assumed to grow by a couple of percent per year, the trillion USD cost could also be expressed as a few years delay in achieving an order of magnitude higher income levels. Similar observations can also be made as regards near-term abatement targets such as the Kyoto protocol. A more widespread recognition of the fact that carbon abatement policies will only marginally affect economic growth is likely to increase the willingness to introduce carbon abatement policies. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. CR *DOE, 1997, SCEN US CARB RED POT *IPCC, 1995, CLIM CHANG 1994 RAD *IPCC, 1999, SPEC REP EM SCEN INT MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 *IPCC, 2001, MIT CONTR WORK GROUP *IPCC, 2001, SCI BASIC CONTR WORK *NAT AC SCI, 1991, POL IMPL GREENH WARM *WEA, 2000, WORLD EN ASS WEA EN ANDERSON D, 1992, OXFORD B ECON STAT, V54, P1 AYRES RU, 1994, ENVIRON RESOUR ECON, V4, P434 AZAR C, 1996, ECOL ECON, V19, P169 AZAR C, 1997, SCIENCE, V276, P1818 AZAR C, 1998, ENVIRON RESOUR ECON, V11, P301 AZAR C, 2000, HYDROGEN METHANOL TR BOLIN B, 2001, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V98, P4850 CLINTON W, 1998, SPEECH US C GOLDEMBERG J, 1987, ENERGY SUSTAINABLE W GOULDER LH, 1999, RESOUR ENERGY ECON, V21, P211 GRUBB M, 1993, ANNU REV ENERG ENV, V18, P397 HANNESSON R, 1998, PETROLEUM EC ISSUES HOFFERT MI, 1998, NATURE, V395, P881 ISHITANI H, 1996, IMP AD MIT OPT IPCC, CH19 JOHANSSON TB, 1993, RENEWABLE ENERGY SOU LAZARUS M, 1993, FOSSIL FREE ENERGY F LINDEN HR, 1996, ANNU REV ENERG ENV, V21, P31 LINDSEY LB, 2001, SPEECH C SCI TECHNOL LOVINS AB, 1991, ANNU REV ENERG ENV, V16, P433 MANNE A, 1997, ENVIRON MODEL ASSESS, V2, P251 MICHAELS PJ, 2000, SATANIC GASES CLEARI NAKICENOVIC N, 1995, GLOBAL ENERGY PERSPE NORDHAUS WD, 1990, ECONOMIST 0707, P19 NORDHAUS WD, 1992, SCIENCE, V258, P1315 OBERSTEINER M, 2001, SCIENCE, V294, P786 PARSON EA, 1998, SCI FOSSIL FUELS CO2, V282, P1054 ROUGHGARDEN T, 1999, ENERG POLICY, V27, P415 SCHNEIDER SH, 1993, SCIENCE, V259, P1381 SCHNEIDER SH, 1999, PACIFIC ASIAN J ENER, V10, P81 SCHNEIDER SH, 2001, NATURE, V409, P417 STERNER T, 1980, NUCL POWER EC SWED WIGLEY TML, 1996, NATURE, V379, P240 NR 40 TC 10 J9 ECOL ECON BP 73 EP 80 PY 2002 PD AUG VL 42 IS 1-2 GA 578PP UT ISI:000177127200008 ER PT J AU McEvoy, D Lindley, S Handley, J TI Adaptation and mitigation in urban areas: synergies and conflicts SO PROCEEDINGS OF THE INSTITUTION OF CIVIL ENGINEERS-MUNICIPAL ENGINEER LA English DT Article C1 Univ Maastricht, Int Ctr Integrated Assessment & Sustainable Dev, Maastricht, Netherlands. Univ Manchester, CURE, Manchester M13 9PL, Lancs, England. RP McEvoy, D, Univ Maastricht, Int Ctr Integrated Assessment & Sustainable Dev, Maastricht, Netherlands. AB Following the introduction of the national Climate Change Programme, initiatives that seek to mitigate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are now well established in the UK. However, there is increasing recognition that adaptation to some level of climate change will be necessary, even if a reduction in emissions is successful. This is inevitable as much of the predicted climate changes over the next 30 - 40 years have already been predetermined by past and present emissions of GHGs. Change is likely to be significant. Understanding what the risks are likely to be and how best to adapt to them is therefore central to any mature climate change strategy. However, the inevitable linkages between adaptation and mitigation measures represent a particular challenge. Focusing on the consequences of climate change for the urban environment ( where most of the population is concentrated and where its impact is likely to be most keenly felt), this paper suggests preferred adaptation options and provides an evaluation of how these may act to reinforce or hamper mitigation efforts. For example, moves towards urban densification may contribute to the reduction of energy use, yet will have negative implications for adaptation. Having a better understanding of the synergies, conflicts and trade-offs between mitigation and adaptation measures would make a valuable contribution to a more integrated climate policy and the effective climate-proofing of our towns and cities. CR *3 REG CLIM CHANG, 2005, AD CLIM CHANG CHECKL *AIR QUAL EXP GROU, 2005, AIR QUAL CLIM CHANG *DEFRA, 2004, MAK SPAC WAT DEV NEW *DEP ENV FOOD RUR, 2006, UK CLIM CHANG PROGR *DETR, 1999, URB REN *DETR, 2000, UK CLIM CHANG PROGR *ENG PHYS SCI RES, 2003, BUILD KNOWL CHANG CL *EUR ENV AG, 2004, 52004 EEA *GLA, 2005, CRAZ PAV ENV IMP LON WATSON RT, 1998, REGIONAL IMPACTS CLI, V1, P1 *IPCC, 2001, CLIM CHANG 2001 MIT *OFF DEP PRIM MIN, 2004, PLANN RESP CLIM CHAN *RCEP, 2000, EN CHANG CLIM ASHLEY R, IN PRESS BUILT ENV BARRETT J, 2001, ECOLOGICAL FOOTPRINT BULKELEY H, 2002, CITIES CLIMATE CHANG BURTON I, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE IMPAC, P877 CAPELLO R, 2000, URBAN STUD, V37, P1479 CHAMBERS N, 2000, SHARING NATURES INTE DUCKWORTH C, 2005, THESIS U MANCHESTER FISCHERKOWALSKI M, 1999, J IND ECOL, V2, P107 GILL S, IN PRESS BUILT ENV GILL S, 2004, LIT REV IMPACTS CLIM GRAVES HM, 2000, POTENTIAL IMPLICATIO GRAVES HM, 2001, COOLING BUILDINGS LO GWILLIAM JA, IN PRESS LANDSCAPE U HACKER JN, 2005, BEATING HEAT KEEPING HULME M, 2002, CLIMATE CHANGE SCENA KLEIN RJT, 2003, 40 TYND CTR CLIM CHA LARSEN J, 2003, RECORD HEAT WAVE EUR MCEVOY D, 2000, INT J ENERG RES, V24, P215 MCEVOY D, 2006, ADAPTIVE MANAGEMENT MCEVOY D, 2006, CLIMATE CHANGE VISIT SMIT B, 1999, MITIGATION ADAPTATIO, V4, P199 TOL RSJ, 2005, ENVIRON SCI POLICY, V8, P572 TOMPKINS EL, 2005, ENVIRON SCI POLICY, V8, P562 WHITE I, 2004, J ENV POLICY PLANNIN, V7, P25 WHITFORD V, 2001, LANDSCAPE URBAN PLAN, V57, P91 WILBANKS TJ, 2005, ENVIRON SCI POLICY, V8, P541 WILBY RL, 2003, WEATHER, V58, P251 WILLIAMS K, 1999, LAND USE POLICY, V16, P167 NR 41 TC 0 J9 PROC INST CIVIL ENG MUNIC ENG BP 185 EP 191 PY 2006 PD DEC VL 159 IS 4 GA 112DE UT ISI:000242504700003 ER PT J AU Hartig, EK Grozev, O Rosenzweig, C TI Climate change, agriculture and wetlands in Eastern Europe: Vulnerability, adaptation and policy SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 BULGARIAN ACAD SCI,FOREST RES INST,BG-1040 SOFIA,BULGARIA. NASA,GODDARD INST SPACE STUDIES,NEW YORK,NY 10025. RP Hartig, EK, COLUMBIA UNIV,CTR CLIMATE SYST RES,NEW YORK,NY 10027. AB Naturally-occurring wetlands perform such functions as flood control, pollution filtration, nutrient recycling, sediment accretion, groundwater recharge and water supply, erosion control, and plant and wildlife preservation. A large concentration of wetlands is located in Eastern Europe. A significant amount of Eastern European wetlands has been converted to agricultural use in the past, and remaining wetlands are subject to agricultural drainage. Drained wetlands are used as prime agriculture lands for a variety of food crops. Other agricultural uses of wetlands range from growing Phragmites australis (common reed) for thatch and livestock feed, to collecting peat for heating and cooking fuel. Altered hydrologic regimes due to global climate change could further exacerbate encroachment of agricultural land use into wetlands. The vulnerability and adaptation studies of the U.S. Country Studies Program are used to analyze where climate change impacts to agriculture may likewise impact wetland;areas. Scenarios indicate higher temperatures and greater evapotranspiration altering the hydrologic regime such that freshwater wetlands are potentially vulnerable in Bulgaria, Czech Republic, and Russia, and that coastal wetlands are at risk in Estonia. Runoff is identified as a key hydrological parameter affecting wetland function. Since wetland losses may increase as a result of climate-change-induced impacts to agriculture, precautionary management options are reviewed, such as establishing buffer areas, promoting sustainable uses of wetlands, and restoration of farmed or mined wetland areas. These options may reduce the extent of negative agricultural impacts on wetlands due to global climate change. CR *CZECH REP COUNTR, 1995, 5 NAT CLIM PROGR CZE *FAO, 1993, AGROSTAT COMP INF SE *INT BENCHM SIT NE, 1989, DEC SUPP SYST AGR TR *IPCC, 1990, IPCC WORK GROUP, V2 *US ARM CORPS ENG, 1987, Y871 US ARM CORPS EN, P100 *US COUNTR STUD PR, 1995, UNPUB REG WORKSH CLI *USDA, 1995, ENT 1995 WETL RES PR, P4 BABCOCK GH, 1992, SOURCES ENERGY, V8, P8 COWARDIN LM, 1979, US FISH WILDLIFE SER, P103 CRUM HA, 1988, FOCUS PEATLANDS PEAT GORIUP P, 1990, PARKS, P56 GREEN FWH, 1978, GEOGR J, V144, P171 HANSEN JE, 1984, GEOPHYS MONOGR, V29, P130 HARRISS RC, 1988, GLOBAL BIOGEOCHEMICA, V2, P231 HARRISS RC, 1992, GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANG, V3, P48 HEJNY, 1978, POND LITTORAL ECOSYS, P1 HILLEL D, 1992, OUT EARTH CIVILIZATI, P320 HOLLIS GE, 1988, NATURE RESOUR, V24, P2 ISZRAEL YA, 1995, DEFCO293PO10118 ANL KONT A, 1996, VULNERABILITY ADAPTA, P249 KUSLER JA, 1990, WETLAND CREATION RES, P594 KVET J, 1978, POND LITTORAL ECOSYS, P211 LARSON JS, 1989, PUBLICATION U MASSAC, V896, P62 LEAN G, 1990, ATLAS ENV, P192 LOOMIS RS, 1992, CROP ECOLOGY PRODUCT, P538 MATTHEWS E, 1987, GLOBAL BIOGEOCHEMICA, V1, P61 MATTHEWS E, 1993, NATO ASI SER, V1, P314 MITSCH WJ, 1993, WETLANDS, P722 MITSCH WJ, 1995, SOIL MANAGEMENT GREE, V18, P205 MORTSCH L, 1990, DEP GEOGRAPHY PUBLIC, P217 PAAVILAINEN E, 1995, PEATLAND FORESTRY EC, P248 PIECZYNSKA E, 1976, INT C CONS WETL WAT, P180 RAEV I, 1995, UNPUB VULNERABILITY SINGER, 1981, COMBUSTION FOSSIL PO, P2 SZCZEPANSKA W, 1976, POL ARCH HYDROBIOL, V23, P233 TEAL J, 1969, LIFE DEATH SALT MARS, P274 TINER RW, 1984, WETLANDS US CURRENT, P58 WATSON RT, 1995, CONTRIBUTION WORKING, P215 WETHERALD RT, 1986, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V8, P5 WHEELER BD, 1995, RESTORATION TEMPERAT, P562 WILSON CA, 1987, J GEOPHYS RES-ATMOSP, V92, P13315 YABLOKOV AV, 1991, CONSERVATION LIVING, P271 NR 42 TC 2 J9 CLIMATIC CHANGE BP 107 EP 121 PY 1997 PD MAY-JUN VL 36 IS 1-2 GA XH635 UT ISI:A1997XH63500008 ER PT J AU Chen, CC Chang, CC TI The impact of weather on crop yield distribution in Taiwan: some new evidence from panel data models and implications for crop insurance SO AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS LA English DT Article C1 Natl Chung Hsing Univ, Dept Appl Econ, Taichung, Taiwan. Natl Taiwan Univ, Dept Agr Econ, Taipei 10764, Taiwan. Acad Sinica, Inst Econ, Taipei 115, Taiwan. RP Chang, CC, Acad Sinica, Inst Econ, Yen Chiou Yuan Rd, Taipei 115, Taiwan. AB This study examines the impact of weather on the yields of seven major crops in Taiwan based on pooled panel data for 15 prefectures over the 1977-1996 period. The unit root tests and maximum likelihood methods involving a panel data model are explored to obtain reliable estimates. The uncertain yield outcome is incorporated into a discrete stochastic programming model to address a comparison between sector analysis with and without considerations of a crop insurance policy under different climate change scenarios. Simulation results suggest that crop insurance may stabilize revenues and protect farmers from exposures to increasing weather-related risk. CR MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 ADAMS RM, 2003, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V60, P131 AHSAN SM, 1982, AM J AGR ECON, V64, P520 ARELLANO M, 1993, J ECONOMETRICS, V59, P87 BACHELET D, 1993, SYSTEMS APPROACHES A, P145 BALTAGI BH, 1995, EC ANAL PANEL DATA BALTAGI BH, 1995, J ECONOMETRICS, V68, P133 BARTLETT MS, 1937, PROC R SOC LON SER-A, V160, P268 CHANG CC, 2002, AGR ECON, V27, P51 CHEN CC, 2000, J AGR RESOUR ECON, V25, P368 DARWIN R, 2004, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V66, P191 HARDMAN LL, 1997, ALTERNATIVE FIELD CR HOOGENBOOM G, 2000, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V103, P137 HOSSAIN M, 1997, APPL SYSTEMS APPROAC HSU HH, 2002, METEOROL ATMOS PHYS, V79, P87 IM KS, 2003, J ECONOMETRICS, V115, P53 JUDGE GG, 1985, THEORY PRACTICE EC JUST RE, 1978, J ECONOMETRICS, V7, P67 JUST RE, 1999, AM J AGR ECON, V81, P287 LAMBERT DK, 1995, J AGR APPL EC, V27, P423 LANSIGAN FP, 2000, AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON, V82, P129 LEVIN A, 1992, UNPUB UNIT ROOT TEST LEVIN A, 1993, 9356 U CAL LEVIN A, 2002, J ECONOMETRICS, V108, P1 LIN CF, 1994, STSAT GRAPHICAL SUMM MATTHEWS RB, 1997, AGR SYST, V54, P399 MCCARL BA, 1980, AM J AGR ECON, V62, P87 MEARNS LO, 1996, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V32, P257 MEARNS LO, 1997, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V35, P367 NORTON RD, 1980, EUROPEAN REV AGR EC, V7, P229 OLESEN JE, 2002, EUR J AGRON, V16, P239 PARRY ML, 1999, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V9, P51 QUAH D, 1994, ECON LETT, V44, P9 RIHA SJ, 1996, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V32, P293 SAHA A, 1997, APPL ECON, V29, P459 SAMUELSON PA, 1952, AM ECON REV, V42, P283 SEGERSON K, 1999, IMPACT CLIMATE CHANG, CH4 SMIT B, 1996, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V6, P205 TAKAYAMA T, 1971, SPATIAL TEMPORAL PRI TSVETSINSKAYA EA, 2003, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V60, P37 TURVEY CG, 2001, REV AGR ECON, V23, P333 YOUNG CE, 2001, AM J AGR ECON, V83, P1196 YU PS, 2002, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V54, P165 NR 43 TC 0 J9 AGR ECON BP 503 EP 511 PY 2005 PD NOV VL 33 IS 3 GA 988SK UT ISI:000233620800013 ER PT J AU Hijmans, RJ TI The effect of climate change on global potato production SO AMERICAN JOURNAL OF POTATO RESEARCH LA English DT Article C1 Int Potato Ctr, Lima 12, Peru. RP Hijmans, RJ, Int Potato Ctr, Apartado 1558, Lima 12, Peru. AB The effect of climate change on global potato production was assessed. Potential yields were calculated with a simulation model and a grid with monthly climate data for current (1961-1990) and projected (2010-2039 and 2040-2069) conditions. The results were mapped and summarized for countries. Between 1961-1990 and 20402069 the global (terrestrial excluding Antarctica) average temperature is predicted to increase between 2.1 and 3.2 C, depending on the climate scenario. The temperature increase is smaller when changes are weighted by the potato area and particularly when adaptation of planting time and cultivars is considered (a predicted temperature increase between 1 and 1.4 C). For this period, global potential potato yield decreases by 18% to 32% (without adaptation) and by 9% to 18% (with adaptation). At high latitudes, global warming will likely lead to changes in the time of planting, the use of later-maturing cultivars, and a shift of the location of potato production. In many of these regions, changes in potato yield are likely to be relatively small, and sometimes positive. Shifting planting time or location is less feasible at lower latitudes, and in these regions global warming could have a strong negative effect on potato production. It is shown that heat-tolerant potato cultivars could be used to mitigate effects of global warming in (sub)tropical regions. CR *INT PAN CLIM CHAN, 1999, PROV CLIM CHANG REL CARTER TR, 1996, AGR FOOD SCI FINLAND, V5, P329 DAVIES A, 1996, ASPECTS APPL BIOL, V45, P63 DETEMMERMAN L, 2000, CHANGING CLIMATE POT EWING EE, 1992, HORTIC REV, V14, P89 HAVERKORT AJ, 1990, AGR SYST, V32, P251 HIJMANS RJ, 2001, AM J POTATO RES, V78, P403 HIJMANS RJ, 2003, AGR SYST, V76 HOUGHTON JT, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 JEFFREE CE, 1996, FUNCT ECOL, V10, P562 KAUKORANTA T, 1996, AGR FOOD SCI FINLAND, V5, P311 KHANNA ML, 1966, CURRENT SCI, V35, P143 KOOMAN PL, 1995, POTATO ECOLOGY MODEL, P41 KOOMAN PL, 1995, THESIS WAGENINGEN AG LEEMANS R, 1993, CLIM RES, V3, P79 LEVY D, 1984, TROP AGR, V61, P167 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 MIGLIETTA F, 1998, GLOB CHANGE BIOL, V4, P163 NEW M, 1999, J CLIMATE, V12, P829 NONHEBEL S, 1993, THESIS WAGENINGEN AG PEIRIS DR, 1996, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V79, P271 REYNOLDS MP, 1989, AM POTATO J, V66, P63 REYNOLDS MP, 1989, ANN BOT-LONDON, V64, P241 ROSENZWEIG C, 1992, GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANG, P342 ROSENZWEIG C, 1994, NATURE, V367, P133 ROSENZWEIG C, 1996, AGR SYST, V52, P455 ROSENZWEIG C, 1998, CLIMATE CHANGE GLOBA SCOTT GJ, 2000, FOOD POLICY, V25, P561 STOL W, 1991, 155 CABODLO TAI GCC, 1994, EUPHYTICA, V75, P49 VANDERZAAG P, 1988, FIELD CROP RES, V19, P167 VANKEULEN H, 1995, POTATO ECOLOGY MODEL, P357 NR 32 TC 0 J9 AM J POTATO RES BP 271 EP 279 PY 2003 PD JUL-AUG VL 80 IS 4 GA 719DQ UT ISI:000185188700006 ER PT J AU SMITH, PEL TI TRANSHUMANCE AMONG EUROPEAN SETTLERS IN ATLANTIC CANADA SO GEOGRAPHICAL JOURNAL LA English DT Article RP SMITH, PEL, UNIV MONTREAL,DEPT ANTHROPOL,MONTREAL,PQ H3C 3J7,CANADA. AB Until recently in Newfoundland, southern Labrador and an adjoining part of Quebec, many of the coastal fishing population regularly migrated to the forests or other zones for the winter. The principal motivations were: firewood, shelter, hunting, fur-trapping and fishery gear production. This was one of several forms of seasonal migration by families and communities that characterized the area for nearly three centuries. The practice, unusual among European settlers, was rooted in various environmental, economic and political features. It had important effects on the processes of adaptation and colonization in the region. CR BANFIELD CE, 1981, NATURAL ENV NEWFOUND, P83 BERGERUD AT, 1983, SCI AM, V249, P130 BLACK WA, 1960, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V50, P267 BRICEBENNETT C, 1977, OUR FOOTPRINTS ARE E BRUTON FA, 1928, NARRATIVE JOURNEY IS CELL GT, 1982, NEWFOUNDLAND DISCOVE GUELKE L, 1985, HIST REFLECTIONS REF, V12, P419 HANDCOCK WG, 1989, SOE LONGE THERE COME HARE FK, 1952, GEOGRAPHICAL B, V2, P36 INGOLD T, 1981, BRIT ARCHAEOLOGICAL, V96, P119 MEINIG DW, 1986, SHAPING AM GEOGRAPHI, V1 MORETON J, 1863, LIFE WORK NEWFOUNDLA OLDMIXON J, 1708, BRIT EMPIRE AM CONTA SMITH PEL, 1987, CURR ANTHROPOL, V28, P241 SMITH PEL, 1987, NEWFOUNDLAND STUDIES, V3, P1 SMITH PEL, 1993, RECHERCHES AM QUEBEC, V23, P5 TANNER V, 1947, OUTLINES GEOGRAPHY L NR 17 TC 2 J9 GEOGR J BP 79 EP 86 PY 1995 PD MAR VL 161 GA QR598 UT ISI:A1995QR59800008 ER PT J AU Hitz, S Smith, JB TI Estimating global impacts from climate change SO GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS LA English DT Article RP Hitz, S, 362 Helms Ave, Culver City, CA 90232 USA. AB We surveyed the literature to assess the state of knowledge with regard to the (presumed) benefits or avoided damages of reducing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases to progressively lower levels. The survey included only published studies addressing global impacts of climate change; studies that only addressed regional impacts were not included. The metric we used for change in climate is increase in global mean temperature (GMT). The focus of the analysis centred on determining the general shape of the damage curve, expressed as a function of GMT. Studies in sea level rise, agriculture, water resources, human health, energy, terrestrial ecosystems productivity, forestry, biodiversity, and marine ecosystems productivity were examined. In addition, we analysed several studies that aggregate results across sectors. Results are presented using metrics as reported in the surveyed studies and thus are not aggregated. We found that the relationships between GMT and impacts are not consistent across sectors. Some of the sectors exhibit increasing adverse impacts with increasing GMT, in particular coastal resources, biodiversity, and possibly marine ecosystem productivity. Some sectors are characterised by a parabolic relationship between temperature and impacts (benefits at lower GMT increases, damages at higher GMT increases), in particular, agriculture, terrestrial ecosystem productivity, and possibly forestry. The relationship between global impacts and increase in GMT for water, health, energy, and aggregate impacts appears to be uncertain. One consistent pattern is that beyond an approximate 3-4degreesC increase in GMT, all of the studies we examined, with the possible exception of forestry, show increasing adverse impacts. Thus, in total, it appears likely that there are increasing adverse impacts at higher increases in GMT. We were unable to determine the relationship between total impacts and climate change up to a 3-4degreesC increase in GMT. There are important uncertainties in the studies we surveyed that prevent us from a precise identification of 3-4degreesC as the critical temperature transition range, beyond which damages are adverse and increasing. We are confident in general however, that beyond several degrees of GMT, damages tend to be adverse and increasing. We conclude by suggesting some priorities for future research that, if undertaken, would further our understanding of how impacts are apt to vary with increases in GMT. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR ALCAMO J, 1994, WATER AIR SOIL POLL, V76, P1 ALCAMO J, 1997, GLOBAL CHANGE GLOBAL ALCAMO J, 1998, RESULTA IMAGE 21 MOD ARNELL NW, 1999, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHA S, V9, S31 ARNELL NW, 2002, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V53, P413 BOPP L, 2001, GLOBAL BIOGEOCHEM CY, V15, P81 CARTER TR, 2001, IMPACTS ADAPTATION V, P145 CHEN CC, 2001, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V49, P147 CRAMER W, 2001, GLOBAL CHANGE BIOL, V7, P357 DARWIN RF, 1995, 703 USDA DOLL P, 2002, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V54, P269 DOWNING TE, 1996, COSTA CLIMATE CHANGE EASTERLING DR, 2000, SCIENCE, V289, P2068 FANKHAUSER S, 1995, VALUING CLIMATE CHAN FISCHER G, 2002, CLIMAGE CHANGE AGR V GITAY H, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, P235 GUBLER DJ, 2001, ENVIRON HEALTH PE S2, V109, P223 HALPIN PN, 1997, ECOL APPL, V7, P828 HIJIOKA Y, 2002, J JAPAN SOC WATER EN, V25, P647 HOOZEMANS FMJ, 1993, GLOBAL VULNERABILITY HOUGHTON JT, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 LISE W, 2002, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V55, P429 MARTENS P, 1999, ESIAM ESIAM MARTENS P, 1999, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V9, P89 MARTENS WJM, 1997, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V35, P145 MARTIN PH, 1995, AMBIO, V24, P200 MARTINELLI F, 1998, STUD ROMANI, V46, P3 MCMICHAEL AJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, P451 MENDELSOHN R, 1997, CLIMATE RESPONSE FUN MENDELSOHN R, 1999, IMPACTS CLIMATE CHAN MENDELSOHN R, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P553 MENDELSOHN R, 2000, INTEGRATED ASSESSMEN, V2, P37 MENDELSOHN R, 2001, GLOBAL WARNING AM EC MENDELSOHN R, 2003, GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANG, P92 METZ B, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 NICHOLLS RJ, 1999, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHA S, V9, PS69 NORDHAUS W, 2000, ROLL DICE AGAIN EC M PARRY ML, 1999, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V9, PS51 PARRY ML, 2001, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V11, P1 PEREZGARCIA J, 2002, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V54, P439 PETERS RL, 1992, GLOBAL WARMING BIOL ROSENZWEIG C, 1995, CLIMATE CHANGES INT, P27 ROSENZWEIG C, 1998, CLIMATE CHANGE GLOBA ROSENZWEIG C, 2002, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V12, P197 SCHNEIDER SH, 2000, PACIFIC ASIAN J ENER, V10, P81 SMIT B, 1996, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V33, P7 SMITH JB, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, P913 SOHNGEN B, 2001, J AGR RESOUR ECON, V26, P326 TIMMERMANN A, 1999, NATURE, V398, P694 TOL RSJ, 2002, ENVIRON RESOUR ECON, V21, P135 TOL RSJ, 2002, ENVIRON RESOUR ECON, V21, P47 TOL RSJ, 2002, INTEGRATED ENV ASSES, V2, P173 VOROSMARTY CJ, 2000, SCIENCE, V289, P284 WATSON RT, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 WEST JJ, 1999, CLIMATE CHANGE RISK, P205 WHITE A, 1999, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHA S, V9, S21 NR 56 TC 2 J9 GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANGE BP 201 EP 218 PY 2004 PD OCT VL 14 IS 3 GA 854EQ UT ISI:000223884300003 ER PT J AU Johannessen, A TI Summary and conclusions from the SIWI Seminar for Young Water Professionals - Water and sustainable development - how to ensure development without compromising sustainability? SO WATER SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY LA English DT Article C1 Stockholm Univ, SIWI, SE-10691 Stockholm, Sweden. Stockholm Univ, Nat Resource Management Div, Dept Syst Ecol, SE-10691 Stockholm, Sweden. RP Johannessen, A, Stockholm Univ, SIWI, SE-10691 Stockholm, Sweden. AB There-is a need to create a balance between development and conservation in order to find a way to mitigate the conflicting interests of water for society, the environment and the economy. Apart from finding a solution to this there is a need to get the message across to the decision makers. How do we make good ideas permeate policy and translate into concrete programs? The Young Water Professionals gave their view through presentations and discussions. It was argued that the answer was not to be found only in environmental science but also in the political and social arena. It was argued that the sanctioned discourse is a powerful force in water allocation and management. How can a balance be struck? Many argued for a unique design of a policy for the whole catchment, acknowledging ecology and existing institutions. Furthermore, many argued in favor of building on existing institutions and steward groups for sustainability and increase their adaptive capacity. NR 0 TC 0 J9 WATER SCI TECHNOL BP 211 EP 213 PY 2003 VL 47 IS 6 GA 676VZ UT ISI:000182774400037 ER PT J AU Anderies, JM TI On modeling human behavior and institutions in simple ecological economic systems SO ECOLOGICAL ECONOMICS LA English DT Article C1 CSIRO, Canberra, ACT 2615, Australia. RP Anderies, JM, CSIRO, GPO Box 284, Canberra, ACT 2615, Australia. AB The use of stylized dynamical systems models and bifurcation analysis in modeling individual and collective behavior in two traditional societies, the Tsembaga of New Guinea and the Polynesians of Easter Island, is explored. The analysis is used to isolate key aspects of individual behavior that open up the possibility of resource overexploitation and key aspects of institutions capable of preventing overexploitation. An extension of the Brander and Taylor [Am. Econ. Rev. 88 (1998) 119-138] Easter Island model with a more realistic model for individual behavior is presented, This induces significant changes in the model dynamics which share many similarities with the Tsembaga model of Anderies [J. Theor. Biol. 192 (1998) 515-530]. Namely, in both models, the ability of agents to intensify the exploitation of the resource base to attempt to meet demands is a fundamentally destabilizing force. The model implications for present day policy issues are explored. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. CR ANDERIES JM, 1998, THESIS U BRIT COLUMB ANDERIES JM, 1999, DEMOGRAPHICS RENEWAB ANDERIES JM, 1998, J THEOR BIOL, V192, P515 BERKES F, 1998, LINKING SOCIAL ECOLO, V1, P1 BRANDER JA, 1998, AM ECON REV, V88, P119 CLARK CW, 1990, MATH BIOECONOMICS OP DOEDEL EJ, 1981, CONGRESSUS NUMERANTI, V30, P265 EDELSTEINKESHET L, 1988, MATH MODELS BIOL FOIN TC, 1984, HUM ECOL, V12, P385 GEERTZ C, 1963, AGR INVOLUTION HARDIN G, 1968, SCIENCE, V162, P1243 KUZNETSOV IA, 1995, ELEMENTS APPL BIFURC MAY RM, 1973, STABILITY COMPLEXITY MORAN EF, 1990, ECOSYSTEM APPROACH A OSTROM E, 1990, GOVT COMMONS OSTROM E, 1995, PROPERTY RIGHTS ENV OSTROM E, 1999, ANNU REV POLIT SCI, V2, P493 OSTROM E, 1999, SCIENCE, V284, P278 RAPPAPORT RA, 1967, PIGS ANCESTORS RITUA, V1, P1 SHANTZIS SB, 1973, GLOBAL EQUILIBRIUM TAINTER JA, 1988, COLLAPSE COMPLEX SOC VANCOLLER L, 1997, CONSERVATION ECOLOGY, V1 VAYDA A, 1968, INTRO CULTURAL ANTHR VAYDA AP, 1969, ENV CULTURAL BEHAV E NR 24 TC 7 J9 ECOL ECON BP 393 EP 412 PY 2000 PD DEC VL 35 IS 3 GA 378AH UT ISI:000165558600007 ER PT J AU Deshingkar, P TI Climate change adaptation in India: A case study of forest systems in Himachal Pradesh SO INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENT AND POLLUTION LA English DT Article C1 Stockholm Environm Inst, S-10314 Stockholm, Sweden. RP Deshingkar, P, Stockholm Environm Inst, Box 2142, S-10314 Stockholm, Sweden. AB Climate-induced changes in the forest sector could have far-reaching consequences for rural communities and the economy in developing countries. Despite the many uncertainties involved in predicting impacts, it makes social and economic sense to identify adaptation options now. The case study of Himachal Pradesh shows that, for adaptation measures to be realistic, the needs of different stakeholders with an interest in forest products and services must be addressed. It is recommended that existing programmes to resolve conflicts between different stakeholders be strengthened. Diversification of occupation structures has also been identified as an important strategy to reduce the vulnerability of forest-dependent communities. Additional investment may be required in new areas of research, such as tree genetics programmes, in order to facilitate the selection of species that are resistant to climate change. CR *IIED UEA, 1993, CLIM SCEN IND SUBC H *IPCC, 1990, CLIM CHANG IPCC SCI *IPCC, 1995, IPCC 2 ASS CLIM CHAN ALLEN LH, 1990, J ENVIRON QUAL, V19, P15 DAVIS MB, 1985, QUATERNARY RES, V23, P327 DESHINGKAR P, 1997, ADAPTING CLIMATE CHA DESHINGKAR P, 1998, IN PRESS WORKSH IMP DOGRA PD, 1981, INDIAN FOREST, V107, P191 DOGRA PD, 1992, STATUS INDIAN FOREST, P243 EMANUEL WR, 1985, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V7, P29 GILL BS, 1992, STATUS INDIAN FOREST, P261 GUHA R, 1983, ECON POLIT WEEKLY, V18, P1883 GUHA R, 1983, ECON POLIT WEEKLY, V18, P1940 HALPIN PN, 1995, GLOBAL CHANGE NATURA LAL M, 1995, CURR SCI INDIA, V69, P752 NORBY RJ, 1986, PLANT PHYSIOL, V82, P83 OECHEL WC, 1994, NATURE, V371, P500 PETERS RL, 1985, BIOSCIENCE, V35, P707 PRENTICE IC, 1992, J BIOGEOGR, V19, P117 PURI GS, 1968, TROPICAL ECOLOGY, V36, P1 SAXENA NC, 1992, JOINT FOREST MANAGEM SHARMA LR, 1991, INDIAN J AGR ECON, V46, P422 SMITH JB, 1996, ADAPTING CLIMATE CHA SMITH TM, 1990, GLOBAL FORESTS SOULE ME, 1991, SCIENCE, V253, P744 WIGLEY TML, 1992, NATURE, V357, P293 NR 26 TC 0 J9 INT J ENVIRON POLLUTION BP 186 EP 197 PY 1998 VL 9 IS 2-3 GA ZQ601 UT ISI:000073884400004 ER PT J AU Lowe, R TI Preparing the built environment for climate change SO BUILDING RESEARCH AND INFORMATION LA English DT Editorial Material C1 Leeds Metropolitan Univ, Leeds LS1 3HE, W Yorkshire, England. RP Lowe, R, Leeds Metropolitan Univ, Leeds LS1 3HE, W Yorkshire, England. CR 2002, P TYND CIB INT C CLI *IPCC, 2001, CLIM CHANG 2001 AD C CAMILLERI M, 2001, BUILD RES INF, V29, P440 DUPLESSIS C, 2003, BUILD RES INF, V31, P240 GRAVES HM, 2000, POTENTIAL IMPLICATIO HERTIN J, 2003, BUILD RES INF, V31, P278 HULME M, 1998, CLIMATE CHANGE SCENA LARSSON N, 2003, BUILD RES INF, V31, P231 LISO KR, 2003, BUILD RES INF, V31, P200 LOWE RJ, 2001, 0104 CRISP CTR BUILD LOWE RJ, 2001, BUILD RES INF, V29, P409 MILLS E, 2003, BUILD RES INF, V31, P257 SANDERS CH, 2003, BUILD RES INF, V31, P210 SHIMODA Y, 2003, BUILD RES INF, V31, P222 STEEMERS K, 2003, BUILD RES INF, V31, P291 NR 15 TC 8 J9 BUILDING RES INFORM BP 195 EP 199 PY 2003 PD MAY-AUG VL 31 IS 3-4 GA 688EE UT ISI:000183419700001 ER PT J AU Torell, E TI Adaptation and learning in coastal management: The experience of five East African initiatives SO COASTAL MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article C1 Univ Rhode Isl, Coastal Resource Ctr, Narragansett, RI 02882 USA. Antioch New England Grad Sch, Dept Environm Studies, Keene, NH USA. RP Torell, E, Univ Rhode Isl, Coastal Resource Ctr, Narragansett, RI 02882 USA. AB This article explores principles of adaptive, learning-based resource management and their practical application in coastal management projects in East Africa. The principles of feedback and adjustment, experimentation, and carefully guided participatory processes that capture widespread knowledge are used to describe the experience of five projects in Kenya, Tanzania, and Mozambique. The findings are drawn from a variety of sources, including site visits and interviews. The main finding is that adaptive methods are a major feature of all projects, and the general approaches used in each case are similar. CR *GOV FINL, 1998, ASS INT COAST MAN AF ANDERSON JEC, 1995, AMBIO, V25, P475 BERMAN P, 1980, WHY POLICIES SUCCEED DRYZEK J, 1997, POLITICS EARTH ENV D GUNDERSON LH, 1995, BARRIERS BRIDGES REN, V1, P1 HENNESSEY TM, 1994, COAST MANAGE, V22, P119 HOLLING CS, 1996, RIGHTS NATURE ECOLOG HUMPHREY S, 1997, EXP PRACT WORKSH INT IMPERIAL MT, 1993, OCEAN COAST MANAGE, V20, P147 LEE KN, 1993, COMPASS GYROSCOPE IN LINDEN O, 1996, 2 POL C INT COAST ZO MICHAEL DN, 1995, BARRIERS BRIDGES REN MOFFAT D, 1998, AMBIO, V27, P590 MOFFAT D, 1998, EXP LOC COMM INT COA NGOILE MAK, 1997, OCEAN COAST MANAGE, V37, P295 OLSEN SB, 1999, MANUAL ASSESSING PRO WALTERS CJ, 1997, CONSERVATION ECOLOGY, V11 WEISS CH, 1998, EVALUATION METHODS S NR 18 TC 2 J9 COAST MANAGE BP 353 EP 363 PY 2000 PD OCT-DEC VL 28 IS 4 GA 355UA UT ISI:000089405900006 ER PT J AU Pelling, M High, C TI Understanding adaptation: What can social capital offer assessments of adaptive capacity? SO GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS LA English DT Article C1 Univ London Kings Coll, Dept Geog, London WC2R 2LS, England. RP Pelling, M, Univ London Kings Coll, Dept Geog, London WC2R 2LS, England. AB The burgeoning interest in social capital within the climate change community represents a welcome move towards a concern for the behavioural elements of adaptive action and capacity. In this paper the case is put forward for a critical engagement with social capital. There is need for an open debate on the conceptual and analytical traps and opportunities that social capital presents. The paper contrasts three schools of thought on social capital and uses a social capital lens to map out current and future areas for research on adaptation to climate change. It identifies opportunities for using social capital to research adaptive capacity and action within communities of place and communities of practice. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *UNDP, 2004, RED DIS RISK CHALL D ADGER WN, 1999, WORLD DEV, V27, P249 ADGER WN, 2000, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V90, P735 ADGER WN, 2001, J INT DEV, V13, P921 ADGER WN, 2003, ECON GEOGR, V79, P387 ADLER PS, 2002, ACAD MANAGE REV, V27, P17 ARROW KJ, 1999, SOCIAL CAPITAL MULTI, P3 BARNETT J, 2001, WORLD DEV, V29, P977 BELLIVEAU MA, 1996, ACAD MANAGE J, V39, P1568 BERKHOUT F, 2002, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V12, P83 BOURDIEU P, 1984, DISTINCTION SOCIAL C BOUTY I, 2000, ACAD MANAGE J, V43, P50 BROWN LA, 1991, CYTOPATHOLOGY, V2, P1 BURT RS, 1997, ADMIN SCI QUART, V42, P339 BURTON I, 1978, ENV HAZARD, V1, P1 CARTER TP, 1994, IPCC TECHNICAL GUIDE COLEMAN J, 1990, FDN SOCIAL THEORY DASGUPTA P, 2003, FDN SOCIAL CAPITAL DESAI V, 1995, COMMUNITY PARTICIPAT DURLAUF S, 2002, ECON J, V112, P459 FANKHAUSER S, 1999, ECOL ECON, V30, P67 FINE B, 2001, SOCIAL CAPITAL SOCIA FOX A, 1974, CONTRACT WORK POWER FOX S, 2000, J MANAGE STUD, V37, P853 FREDERICK KD, 1997, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V37, P141 FUKUYAMA F, 1995, TRUST SOCIAL VIRTUES FUKUYAMA F, 2001, THIRD WORLD Q, V22, P7 GIDDENS A, 1990, CONSEQUENCES MODERNI KEANE J, 1998, CIVIL SOC OLD IMAGES LAVE J, 1991, SITUATED LEARNING LE LEONARD R, 2003, J VOLUNTARY NONPROFI, V14, P189 LESSER E, 2000, KNOWLEDGE COMMUNITIE MCILWAINE C, 1998, PROG HUM GEOG, V22, P415 MELE D, 2003, J BUS ETHICS, V45, P3 MOHAN G, 2002, PROG HUM GEOG, V26, P191 NAHAPIET J, 1997, ACAD MANAGEMENT BEST, V3539 OSTROM E, 2000, SOCIAL CAPITAL MULTI PARRY ML, 1999, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V9, P51 PELLING M, 1998, J INT DEV, V10, P469 PELLING M, 2002, INT DEV PLAN REV, V24, P59 PELLING M, 2003, VULNERABILITY CITIES PORTES A, 1998, ANNU REV SOCIOL, V24, P1 PUTNAM R, 1993, MAKING DEMOCRACY WOR PUTNAM R, 1995, PS POLITICAL SCI POL, V28, P667 PUTNAM R, 2000, BOWLING ALONE COLLAP PUTZEL J, 1997, J INT DEV, V9, P251 RAYNER S, 2001, INT J GLOBAL ENV ISS, V1, P175 ROBISON LM, 2002, REV SOC ECON, V60, P1 ROSE R, 2000, SOCIAL CAPITAL MULTI, P147 ROTHSTEIN B, 2003, POWER DEMOCRACY CRIT, P115 RUBIO M, 1997, J ECON ISSUES, V31, P805 SCHULLER T, 2000, SOCIAL CAPITAL CRITI SEIBERT SE, 2001, ACAD MANAGE J, V44, P219 SHAW P, 1997, J ORGAN CHANGE MANAG, V10, P235 SMIT B, 1996, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V33, P7 SMITH B, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P223 SMITHERS J, 1997, AGR RESTRUCTURING SU, P167 SOLOW R, 1999, SOCIAL CAPITAL MULTI, P6 SZRETER S, 1998, 15 SHEFF U TSAI WP, 1998, ACAD MANAGE J, V41, P464 USLANER EM, 2003, AM POLIT RES, V31, P331 WENGER E, 1999, COMMUNITIES PRACTICE WENGER E, 2000, ORGANIZATION, V7, P225 WILDAVSKY A, 1988, SEARCHING SAFETY WOOLCOCK M, 1998, THEOR SOC, V27, P151 WOOLCOCK M, 2000, WORLD BANK RES OBSER, V15, P225 WOOLCOCK M, 2002, SOCIAL CAPITAL DEV C NR 67 TC 5 J9 GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANGE BP 308 EP 319 PY 2005 PD DEC VL 15 IS 4 GA 988TG UT ISI:000233623200004 ER PT J AU CONNER, JR TI ASSESSING THE SOCIOECONOMIC IMPACTS OF CLIMATE-CHANGE ON GRAZINGLANDS SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Article RP CONNER, JR, TEXAS A&M UNIV,DEPT AGR ECON,COLLEGE STN,TX 77843. AB This paper begins with an introduction to human/grazingland interaction, including its history and a description of the general problems in analyzing and assessing human use of this vast resource. The second section provides a review and synopsis of the current state of modeling the socioeconomic aspects of grazinglands. Aspects of biophysical models which can provide useful information on grazingland ecology and variability in the associated resources and human habitat are discussed. Models assessing human activity in relation to grazinglands are reviewed and a few examples of linkage of biophysical and socioeconomic models into integrated assessments for policy analysis are discussed. Modeling the socioeconomic impacts of climate change is discussed in the last section of this report. Problems encountered in incorporating changes in technology and adaptation to such changes are delineated and a model (FLIPSIM) designed to incorporate technological change is discussed. Methods for incorporating technological change and natural adaptation after climate change are then explored with emphasis on use of macro models as a means of parameterizing region specific micro models. The degree of reliability and resolution needed for models to be useful to policy analysts are assessed and it is argued that coarser resolution models are more efficient. The paper ends with an illustration of one type of analysis of socioeconomic impacts of climate change on grasslands that can be conducted with the current data and methodology using a series of models and a 'representative firm' approach. 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RP REILLY, JM, USDA,ECON RES INST,WASHINGTON,DC 20250. AB Estimates of the potential effect of three different climate scenarios for world agriculture are made. The scenarios show that the impacts differ significantly among the scenarios and among countries. The direct impact of climate change on yield, the global effect on commodity prices, and the export/import status of a country are shown to determine the economic winners and losers. The trade effects and the high degree of uncertainty should be critical considerations in adaptation policies. CR 1989, RES COOPERATION AGR ADAMS RM, 1990, NATURE, V345, P219 ARTHUR L, 1988, NATURAL RESOURCE ENV FISCHER G, 1994, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V4, P7 HOUGHTON JT, 1992, CLIMATE CHANGE 1992 JODHA NS, 1989, GREENHOUSE WARMING A, P147 KANE SM, 1992, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V21, P17 KATES RW, 1985, CLIMATE IMPACT ASSES KOKOSKI M, 1987, AM ECON REV, V7, P331 MENDELSOHN R, 1993, RES AGENDA STUDY GLO MOONEY S, 1990, CAN J AGR ECON, V38, P685 PARRY ML, 1988, IMPACTS CLIMATIC VAR, V1 PARRY ML, 1988, IMPACTS CLIMATIC VAR, V2 REILLY JM, 1993, AM ECON REV, V83, P306 RONINGEN, 1991, AGES9151 USDA STAFF ROSENZWEIG C, 1993, CLIMATE CHANGE WORLD ROSENZWEIG, 1993, CLIMATE CHANGE WORLD RUTTAN VW, 1994, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V4, P63 SONKA S, 1991, CLIMATE CHANGE EVALU, P21 SULLIVAN J, 1991, AGES9151 USDA STAFF TOBEY J, 1992, J AGR RESOUR ECON, V17, P195 NR 21 TC 25 J9 GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANGE BP 24 EP 36 PY 1994 PD MAR VL 4 IS 1 GA NK750 UT ISI:A1994NK75000003 ER PT J AU Yohe, GW Tol, RSJ TI Indicators for social and economic coping capacity - moving toward a working definition of adaptive capacity SO GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS LA English DT Article C1 Wesleyan Univ, Dept Econ, Middletown, CT 06459 USA. Univ Hamburg, D-20146 Hamburg, Germany. Vrije Univ, D-20146 Hamburg, Germany. Carnegie Mellon Univ, D-20146 Hamburg, Germany. RP Yohe, GW, Wesleyan Univ, Dept Econ, Middletown, CT 06459 USA. AB This paper offers a practically motivated method for evaluating systems' abilities to handle external stress, The method is designed to assess the potential contributions of various adaptation options to improving systems' coping capacities by focusing attention directly on the underlying determinants of adaptive capacity. The method should be sufficiently flexible to accommodate diverse applications, hose contexts are location specific and path dependent without imposing the straightjacket constraints of a "one size fits all" cookbook approach. Nonetheless, the method should produce unitless indicators that can be employed to judge the relative vulnerabilities of diverse systems to multiple stresses and to their potential interactions. An artificial application is employed to describe the development of the method and to illustrate how it might be applied. Some empirical evidence is offered to underscore the significance of the determinants of adaptive capacity in determining vulnerability these are the determinants upon which the method is constructed, The method is, finally. applied directly to expert judgments of six different adaptations that could reduce vulnerability in the Netherlands to increased flooding along the Rhine River. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *INT PAN CLIM CHAN, 2001, IPCC 2000 IMP AD VUL BERZ GA, 1999, MITIGATION ADAPTATIO, V4, P283 DEFREITAS CR, 1989, POPULATION DISASTER, P98 DEVRIES J, 1985, CLIMATE IMPACT ASSES, P273 DOWNING TE, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE WORLD, P662 DOWNING TE, 1997, MITIGATION ADAPTATIO, V2, P19 HEWITT J, 1971, HAZARDOUSNESS PLACE, P312 KANE SM, 1992, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V21, P17 KARL TR, 1998, B AM METEOROL SOC, V79, P231 MEARNS LO, 1997, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V35, P367 OLSTHOORN AA, 2001, FLOODS FLOOD MANAGEM, P43 PITTOCK AB, 2000, ENVIRON MONIT ASSESS, V61, P9 SMIT B, 1999, MITIGATION ADAPTATIO, V4, P199 SMIT B, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P223 SMITHERS J, 1997, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V7, P129 TOL RSJ, 2001, FLOODS FLOOD MANAGEM VANDERGRIJP NM, 2001, FLOODS FLOOD MANAGEM, P5 VANDERWERFF PE, 2001, FLOODS FLOOD MANAGEM, P89 YOHE GW, 1996, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V32, P387 YOHE GW, 1998, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V38, P437 NR 20 TC 5 J9 GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANGE BP 25 EP 40 PY 2002 PD APR VL 12 IS 1 GA 551TL UT ISI:000175577700004 ER PT J AU Young, OR Berkhout, F Gallopin, GC Janssen, MA Ostrom, E Leeuw, SVD TI The globalization of socio-ecological systems: An agenda for scientific research SO GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS LA English DT Article C1 Arizona State Univ, Sch Human Evolut & Social Change, Tempe, AZ 85287 USA. Arizona State Univ, Sch Comp & Informat, Tempe, AZ 85287 USA. Indiana Univ, Dept Polit Sci, Bloomington, IN 47408 USA. Indiana Univ, Workship Polit Theory & Policy Anal, Bloomington, IN 47408 USA. Univ Calif Santa Barbara, Bern Sch Environm Sci & Management, Santa Barbara, CA 93106 USA. Vrije Univ Amsterdam, Inst Environm Studies, IVM, NL-1081 HV Amsterdam, Netherlands. UN, ECLAC, Santiago, Chile. RP Janssen, MA, Arizona State Univ, Sch Human Evolut & Social Change, Box 872402, Tempe, AZ 85287 USA. AB We argue that globalization is a central feature of coupled human-environment systems or, as we call them, socio-ecological systems (SESs). In this article, we focus on the effects of globalization on the resilience, vulnerability, and adaptability of these systems. We begin with a brief discussion of key terms, arguing that socio-economic resilience regularly substitutes for biophysical resilience in SESs with consequences that are often unforeseen. A discussion of several mega-trends (e.g. the rise of mega-cities, the demand for hydrocarbons, the revolution in information technologies) underpins our argument. We then proceed to identify key analytical dimensions of globalization, including rising connectedness, increased speed, spatial stretching, and declining diversity. We show how each of these phenomena can cut both ways in terms of impacts on the resilience and vulnerability of SESs. A particularly important insight flowing from this analysis centers on the reversal of the usual conditions in which large-scale things are slow and durable while small-scale things are fast and ephemeral. The fact that SESs are reflexive can lead either to initiatives aimed at avoiding or mitigating the dangers of globalization or to positive feedback processes that intensify the impacts of globalization. In the concluding section, we argue for sustained empirical research regarding these concerns and make suggestions about ways to enhance the incentives for individual researchers to work on these matters. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 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CR *INDIA GOVT, 1907, MADR DISTR GAZ VIZG *INDIA GOVT, 1961, 7 VILL SURV MON KODA K, 1977, MARRIAGE REGULATION RAO MK, 1975, THESIS ANDHRA U SAHLINS M, 1964, HORIZONS ANTHR THURSTON E, 1909, CASTES TRIBES SO IND NR 6 TC 0 J9 MAN INDIA BP 69 EP 75 PY 1981 VL 61 IS 1 GA LX576 UT ISI:A1981LX57600006 ER PT J AU OBrien, KL Leichenko, RM Kelkar, U Venema, H Aandahl, G Tompkins, H Javed, A Bhadwal, S Barg, S Nygaard, L West, J TI Mapping vulnerability to multiple stressors: climate change and globalization in India SO GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS LA English DT Article C1 CICERO, N-0318 Oslo, Norway. Rutgers State Univ, Dept Geog, Piscataway, NJ 08854 USA. Tata Energy Res Inst, New Delhi 110003, India. IISD, Winnipeg, MB R3B 0Y4, Canada. RP OBrien, KL, CICERO, POB 1129, N-0318 Oslo, Norway. AB There is growing recognition in the human dimensions research communuity that climate change impact studies must take into account the effects of other ongoing global changes. Yet there has been no systematic methodology to study climate change vulnerability in the context of multiple stressors. Using the example of Indian agriculture, this paper presents a methodology for investigating regional vulnerability to climate change in combination with other global stressors. This method, which relies on both vulnerability mapping and local-level case studies, may be used to assess differential vulnerability for any particular sector within a nation or region. and it can serve as a basis for targeting policy interventions. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *CGWB, 1996, GROUNDW STAT 1996 *CMIE, 2000, PROF DISTR *NATMO, 1980, NAT THEM MAPP ORG *NBSS LUP, 1994, IND SOIL DEGR HUM IN *UNIDO, 1995, IND GLOB AGGARWAL PK, 2002, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V52, P331 BAGLA P, 2002, SCIENCE, V297, P1265 BHALLA GS, 1994, EC LIBERALISATION IN CHAUDHURY P, 1998, EC LIBERALISATION IN, P256 CONROY ME, 1993, J INTERAMERICAN STUD, V34, P1 DEARDORFF AV, 2000, SOCIAL DIMENSIONS US DINAR A, 1998, 402 WORLD BANK DOWNING TE, 2000, CLIMATE CHANGE VULNE DREZE J, 2002, INDIA DEV PARTICIPAT FREEBAIRN DK, 1995, WORLD DEV, V23, P265 GADGIL S, 1995, CURR SCI INDIA, V69, P649 GOLDMAN A, 1995, WORLD DEV, V23, P243 GULATI A, 1999, ECON POLIT WEEKLY, V34, P41 GULATI A, 1999, INDIAS EC REFORMS DE, P122 GULATI A, 1999, TRADE LIBERALIZATION JONES PG, 2003, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V13, P51 KASPERSON JX, 2001, GLOBAL ENV RISK KUMAR KR, 2002, CLIMATE CHANGE INDIA, P24 KUMAR KSK, 2001, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V11, P147 LAL M, 1995, CURR SCI INDIA, V69, P752 LAL M, 1998, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V89, P101 LEICHENKO RM, 2002, MITIGATION ADAPTATIO, V7, P1 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 MCLEAN RF, 1998, REGIONAL IMPACTS CLI MEARNS LO, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, P739 MENON P, 2001, FARM CRISIS SUICIDES, V18 MITRA AP, 2002, GLOBAL REGIONAL LINK MITTELMAN JH, 1994, THIRD WORLD Q, V15, P427 MITTELMAN JH, 2000, GLOBALIZATION SYNDOM NEW M, 1999, J CLIMATE, V12, P829 OBRIEN JT, 2003, LANCET NEUROL, V2, P89 OBRIEN KL, 2000, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V10, P221 POLSKY C, 2003, ASSESSING VULNERABIL RAJAN RS, 2002, WORLD ECON, V3, P87 RAMACHANDRAN M, 1997, APPL GEOGRAPHIC INFO RIBOT JC, 1996, CLIMATE VARIABILITY, V1, P1 SANGHI A, 1998, INDIA AGR CLIMATE DA SANYAL A, 1993, NATURE MAN INDIAN EC SEN AK, 1999, ESSAYS MANMOHAN SING, P73 SHIVA V, 2000, STOLEN HARVEST HIJAC TURNPENNY JR, 2002, CLIMATE RES, V20, P189 WEBSTER PJ, 1998, J GEOPHYS RES-OCEANS, V103, P14451 NR 47 TC 0 J9 GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANGE BP 303 EP 313 PY 2004 PD DEC VL 14 IS 4 GA 897NL UT ISI:000227010900002 ER PT J AU Kristensen, NP Gabric, A Braddock, R Cropp, R TI Is maximizing resilience compatible with established ecological goal functions? SO ECOLOGICAL MODELLING LA English DT Article C1 Univ Queensland, Dept Math, St Lucia, Qld 4072, Australia. Univ Queensland, Dept Zool & Entomol, St Lucia, Qld 4072, Australia. Griffith Univ, Sch Australian Environm Studies, Nathan, Qld 4111, Australia. Griffith Univ, Sch Environm Engn, Nathan, Qld 4111, Australia. RP Kristensen, NP, Univ Queensland, Dept Math, St Lucia, Qld 4072, Australia. AB Cropp and Gabric [Ecosystem adaptation: do ecosystems maximise resilience? Ecology. In press] used a simple phytoplanktonzooplankton-nutrient model and a genetic algorithm to determine the parameter values that would maximize the value of certain goal functions. These goal functions were to maximize biomass, maximize flux, maximize flux to biomass ratio, and maximize resilience. It was found that maximizing goal functions maximized resilience. The objective of this study was to investigate whether the Cropp and Gabric [Ecosystem adaptation: do ecosystems maximise resilience? Ecology. In press] result was indicative of a general ecosystem principle, or peculiar to the model and parameter ranges used. This study successfully replicated the Cropp and Gabric [Ecosystem adaptation: do ecosystems maximise resilience? Ecology. In press] experiment for a number of different model types, however, a different interpretation of the results is made. A new metric, concordance, was devised to describe the agreement between goal functions. It was found that resilience has the highest concordance of all goal functions trialled. for most model types. This implies that resilience offers a compromise between the established ecological goal functions. The parameter value range used is found to affect the parameter versus goal function relationships. Local maxima and minima affected the relationship between parameters and goal functions, and between goal functions. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. CR AOKI I, 1988, ECOL MODEL, V42, P289 CHOI JS, 1999, ECOL MODEL, V117, P143 COOKE GD, 1967, BIOSCIENCE, V17, P717 COOPER A, 1981, FOREST SUCCESSION CO, P339 CROPP R, 2002, ECOLOGY, V83, P2019 DEANGELIS DL, 1975, ECOLOGY, V56, P238 DEANGELIS DL, 1978, NATURE, V273, P406 DEANGELIS DL, 1992, DYNAMICS NUTR CYCLIN DRUON JN, 1999, J MARINE SYST, V19, P1 FATH BD, 2001, J THEOR BIOL, V208, P493 GOODMAN D, 1975, Q REV BIOL, V50, P237 HALL CAS, 1995, MAXIMUM POWER IDEAS JOHNSON L, 1988, ENTROPY INFORMATION, P75 JOHNSON L, 1995, COMPLEX ECOLOGY PART, P51 JORGENSEN SE, 1977, ECOL MODEL, V3, P39 JORGENSEN SE, 1981, DEV ENV MODELLING, V1, P587 JORGENSEN SE, 1982, ENERGETICS SYSTEMS, P61 JORGENSEN SE, 1999, ECOL MODEL, V120, P75 KAY JJ, 1992, ECOLOGICAL INDICATOR, V1, P159 KAY JJ, 1994, ALTERNATIVES, V20, P32 LAWS EA, 2000, GLOBAL BIOGEOCHEM CY, V14, P1231 LENTON TM, 1998, NATURE, V394, P439 LOTKA AJ, 1922, P NATIONAL ACADEMY S, V8, P147 MANSSON BA, 1993, OECOLOGIA, V93, P582 MARGALEF R, 1968, PERSPECTIVES ECOLOGI MAUERSBERGER P, 1995, COMPLEX ECOLOGY PART, P130 MEJER H, 1978, ECOLOGICAL MODELLING, P829 NAEEM S, 1997, NATURE, V390, P507 ODUM EP, 1969, SCIENCE, V164, P262 ODUM HT, 1983, SYSTEMS ECOLOGY INTR PRIGOGINE I, 1984, ORDER OUT CHAOS MANS TILMAN D, 1996, ECOLOGY, V77, P350 TOUSSAINT O, 1998, COMP BIOCHEM PHYS A, V120, P3 ULANOWICZ RE, 1980, J THEOR BIOL, V85, P223 WILHELM T, 2000, ECOL MODEL, V132, P231 NR 35 TC 0 J9 ECOL MODEL BP 61 EP 71 PY 2003 PD NOV 1 VL 169 IS 1 GA 742JT UT ISI:000186514200005 ER PT J AU Pedersen, D TI Disease ecology at a crossroads: Man-made environments, human rights and perpetual development utopias SO SOCIAL SCIENCE & MEDICINE LA English DT Article C1 HARVARD UNIV,SCH MED,DEPT SOCIAL MED,BOSTON,MA 02115. AB There is a growing body of critical literature on health, development and environmental sustainability in a world of finite resources and overburdened ecosystems. The ethics of progress and perpetual development in pursuit of unlimited economic growth and ever-expanding markets are no longer viable, given the constraints imposed on the life-support systems of the biosphere and a finite resource base, which poses the most serious threat to life on Earth. Despite increasing evidence of the linkages between economic growth and environmental deterioration and a rhetoric expressed in a growing body of laws, regulations, accords and global ''agendas'' at the national and international level, there are all too few success stories in reversing or even slowing down the current trends of ecosystem degradation and decreasing cultural and biological diversity. Or. the contrary, there is evidence that environmental stress and deterioration are increasing, and the impact on the mental, physical and social health and well-being of populations is more significant now than in any previous time in history. The fragmentation of countries, the rise of nationalism and ethnic conflict, the decimation of indigenous nations and human rights abuses are often closely interrelated with environmental degradation and development initiatives. This paper reviews some of the concepts and underlying values of the main ''models'' developed by health and social scientists for interpreting this reality, with the aim of stimulating debate that could lead to the adoption of a larger and more comprehensive framework for analysing the interactions between human health, development and environmental change. 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RP Sagar, AD, Harvard Univ, John F Kennedy Sch Govt, Sci Technol & Publ Policy Program, Belfer Ctr Sci & Int Affairs, Cambridge, MA 02138 USA. AB The notion of capacity development (CD) has been receiving increasing attention as a way to assist the South in its environmental management. Consequently, there has been an exploration of various facets of the capacity issue in the literature and an incorporation of CD in environmental programs of donor agencies. Yet, many of these discussions have remained rather broad, and efforts to develop environmental capacity have shown only limited success. Based on an examination of the capacity needs for environmental management in agriculture and industry, and for dealing with climate change, this review suggests that strengthening domestic capabilities for policy research and innovation as well as for managing technological change may be particularly critical to allow for adaptation of policies and technologies for local conditions and needs. Examination of innovative local experiments on environmental management in developing countries can also provide useful lessons on how to develop and utilize capacity that works under the constrained conditions often found in developing countries. Furthermore, it is important to stress that improving the environment in developing countries also requires capacity in the North to examine and reorient Northern policies that impact the environment, as well as capacity for the environment, in the poorer parts of the world. Ultimately, though, the development of sustainable and appropriate capacity for the environment will require not merely donor-driven programs but a systematic effort driven by Southern governments and organizations. 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VIVIAN J, 1994, DEV CHANGE, V25, P181 WADE R, 1990, GOVERNING MARKET EC WARREN DM, 1996, SUSTAINABLE DEV 3 WO, V2, P15 WATANABE S, 1993, TECHNOLOGY WEALTH NA, P353 WATSON RT, 1999, REP 5 C PART UN FRAM WEISS CH, 1989, J POLICY ANAL MANAG, V8, P411 WEISS CH, 1992, ORG POLICY ANAL HELP, P1 WILDAVSKY A, 1979, SPEAKING TRUTH POWER YE XD, 2000, SCIENCE, V287, P303 NR 256 TC 4 J9 ANNU REV ENERG ENVIRON BP 377 EP 439 PY 2000 VL 25 GA 396EZ UT ISI:000166624500013 ER PT J AU Murdiyarso, D TI Adaptation to climatic variability and change: Asian perspectives on agriculture and food security SO ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING AND ASSESSMENT LA English DT Article C1 BIOTROP GCTE Impacts Ctr SE Asia, Bogor, Indonesia. RP Murdiyarso, D, BIOTROP GCTE Impacts Ctr SE Asia, Jl Raya Tajur Km 6,POB 116, Bogor, Indonesia. AB The impacts of climate change on potential rice production in Asia are reviewed in the light of the adaptation to climatic variability and change. Collaborative studies carried out by IRRI and US-EPA reported that using process-based crop simulation models increasing temperature may decrease rice potential yield up to 7.4% per degree increment of temperature. When climate scenarios predicted by GCMs were applied it was demonstrated that rice production in Asia may decline by 3.8% under the climates of the next century. Moreover, changes in rainfall pattern and distribution were also found suggesting the possible shift of agricultural lands in the region. The studies however have not taken the impacts of climatic variability into account, which often produce extreme events like that caused by monsoons and El Nino. Shifts in rice-growing areas are likely to be constrained by land-use changes occurring for other developmental reasons, which may force greater cultivation of marginal lands and further deforestation. This should be taken into account and lead to more integrated assessment, especially in developing countries where land-use change is more a top-down policy rather than farmers' decision. A key question is: To what extent will improving the ability of societies to cope with current climatic variability through changing design of agricultural systems and practices help the same societies cope with the likely changes in climate? CR BACHELET D, 1995, MODELING IMPACT CLIM, P85 BARRY TA, 1995, WORLD RESOURCE REV, V7 FISCHER G, 1995, ASA SPECIAL PUBL, V59, P341 FISCHER G, 1996, NATO ASI SERIES I, V37, P115 GOMMES R, 1993, AGR DIMENSIONS GLOBA, P67 HANSEN J, 1988, J GEOPHYS RES, V93, P9341 HORIE T, 1995, MODELING IMPACT CLIM, P51 ISLAM N, 1995, POPULATION FOOD EARL KANE SM, 1991, 647 AER USDA EC RES KROPFF MJ, 1995, MODELING IMPACT CLIM, P27 LANSIGAN FP, 1997, FIELD CROP RES, V51, P133 LEBEL L, 1996, LIVING GLOBAL CHANGE MATTHEWS RB, 1995, MODELING IMPACT CLIM MATTHEWS RB, 1995, MODELING IMPACT CLIM, P95 ROSENZWEIG C, 1993, AGR DIMENSIONS GLOBA, P87 TOBEY J, 1992, J AGR RESOUR ECON, V17, P195 WETHERALD RT, 1988, J ATMOS SCI, V45, P1397 WILSON CA, 1987, J GEOPHYS RES-ATMOSP, V92, P13315 NR 18 TC 1 J9 ENVIRON MONIT ASSESS BP 123 EP 131 PY 2000 PD MAR VL 61 IS 1 GA 300UB UT ISI:000086270100010 ER PT J AU Easterling, WE TI Why regional studies are needed in the development of full-scale integrated assessment modelling of global change processes SO GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS LA English DT Article C1 Penn State Univ, Dept Geog, University Pk, PA 16802 USA. RP Easterling, WE, Penn State Univ, Dept Geog, 302 Walker Bldg, University Pk, PA 16802 USA. AB Full-scale integrated assessment models (IAMs) allow many components of the global climate change problem to be examined in one framework. The chief advantage of the IAM approach over less complete modelling frameworks is that the socio-economic and environmental consequences of policy choices aimed at abating or adapting to climate change can be evaluated in their totality, However, the highly aggregate functional forms that IAMs currently embed are lacking in sufficient regional and sectoral detail to be totally credible. In this paper, ten reasons why regional studies are needed in support of the development of full-scale IAMs are given. A strategic cyclical scaling exercise involving regional and global integrated modelling frameworks is proposed, (C) 1997 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. 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Acclimatise, Nottingham NG25 0BY, England. Govt Off London, London SW1P 4RR, England. RP Hedger, MM, Environm Agcy, Rio House,Waterside Dr,Aztec W, Bristol BS32 4UD, Avon, England. AB The methods, tools and outputs of the UK Climate Impacts Programme (UKCIP) show how building adaptive capacity to climate change can be embedded within a wide range of organizations. UKCIP has been operating since 1997 to support decision-makers' assessments of their vulnerability to climate change so that they can plan how to adapt. Whilst stakeholder engagement is now generally regarded as vital to ensure that research meets the needs of decision-makers for information, this usually means that stakeholders are positioned in a 'consultative' role in research. In contrast, the UKCIP aims to bridge the gap between research and policy so that decision-makers take control to produce research in ways that are useful to them. The Programme has been flexible and was developed incrementally, with increased scientific understanding, taking advantage of collaborative funding and facilitating long-standing partnerships. Whilst the core framework of scenarios and tools has been developed centrally, most studies have been stakeholder-funded and led. The Programme's results suggest that if decision-makers are supported, capacity is built for assessments, and crucially, research outputs are directly applicable to their ongoing work and strategic planning. This capacity-building has worked across scales and sectors and is an effective route to mainstreaming climate change adaptation. The implication, therefore, is that more support should be given by funding agencies to develop institutional capacity to support adaptation to climate change in both the private and public sectors. 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RP Porro, R, Ctr Int Agr Trop, Travessa Dr Eneas Pinheiro S-N,CIFOR Off CPATU, BR-66095100 Belem, Para, Brazil. AB This article examines transformations associated with changes in resource use and land cover dynamics in the community of Sao Manoel, Maranhao state, in the eastern Brazilian Amazon. The shifting cultivator peasants in Sao Manoel integrate swidden fields for annual cropping, the extraction of babassu palm products, and pastures for cattle ranching. Since the early twentieth century, predominant vegetative cover patterns have been altered from species-rich mature forests to secondary succession with babassu dominant to pasture or swidden fields containing palm stands of various densities. A grounded political ecology of resource use in the area suggests that management strategies and the resulting land cover dynamics integrate site-specific decisions of peasant producers. I discuss the trajectory of production strategies in Sao Manoel since the establishment of the community in the 1920s, and identify the multiple dimensions affecting resource use and environmental outcomes, with an emphasis on the period following land struggles and the recovery of peasant tenure rights in the mid-1980s. The analysis indicates that socionatural trajectories that optimize resource use and address the socioeconomic needs of the community include the maintenance of palm/pastures associations. 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Penn State Univ, EMS Environm Inst, University Pk, PA 16802 USA. Univ Southampton, Southampton Oceanog Ctr, Southampton SO14 3ZH, Hants, England. Yale Univ, Dept Econ, New Haven, CT 06520 USA. Univ Arizona, Inst Study Planet Earth, Tucson, AZ 85721 USA. Columbia Univ, Lamont Doherty Earth Observ, Palisades, NY 10964 USA. NASA, Goddard Inst Space Studies, New York, NY 10025 USA. Univ Colorado, Ctr Sci & Technol Policy Res, Cooperat Inst Res Environm Sci, Boulder, CO 80309 USA. Univ Chicago, Dept Geophys Sci, Chicago, IL 60637 USA. Univ Washington, Dept Atmospher Sci, Seattle, WA 98195 USA. Univ Washington, Dept Oceanog, Seattle, WA 98195 USA. Univ Bern, Inst Phys, CH-3012 Bern, Switzerland. Univ Calif San Diego, Scripps Inst Oceanog, La Jolla, CA 92093 USA. RP Alley, RB, Penn State Univ, Dept Geosci, University Pk, PA 16802 USA. AB Large, abrupt, and widespread climate changes with major impacts have occurred repeatedly in the past, when the Earth system was forced across thresholds. Although abrupt climate changes can occur for many reasons, it is conceivable that human forcing of climate change is increasing the probability of large, abrupt events. Were such an event to recur, the economic and ecological impacts could be large and potentially serious. Unpredictability exhibited near climate thresholds in simple models shows that some uncertainty will always be associated with projections. In light of these uncertainties, policy-makers should consider expanding research into abrupt climate change, improving monitoring systems, and taking actions designed to enhance the adaptability and resilience of ecosystems and economies. CR MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 *IPCC, 2001, CLIM CHANG 2001 SCI *NAT RES COUNC, 65 NRC *NAT RES COUNC, 2002, ABR CLIM CHANG IN SU ALLEY RB, 1997, GEOLOGY, V25, P483 ALLEY RB, 2001, PALEOCEANOGRAPHY, V16, P190 BARBER DC, 1999, NATURE, V400, P344 BARLOW LK, 1997, HOLOCENE, V7, P489 BICE KL, 2002, PALEOCEANOGRAPHY, V17 BISWAS MK, 1980, DESERTIFICATION BOND G, 2001, SCIENCE, V294, P2130 BROECKER WS, 1997, SCIENCE, V278, P1582 BROECKER WS, 2002, GLACIAL WORLD ACCORD BROOK EJ, 1999, GEOPH MONOG SERIES, V112, P165 CAPPELEN J, 2002, 0206 DAN MET I COLWELL RR, 1996, SCIENCE, V274, P2025 CUFFEY KM, 1997, J GEOPHYS RES-OCEANS, V102, P26383 DELWORTH TL, 2000, SCIENCE, V287, P2246 DICKSON B, 2002, NATURE, V416, P832 EBBESMEYER CC, 1991, P 7 ANN PAC CLIM PAC, P115 GASSE F, 2000, QUATERNARY SCI REV, V19, P189 GRAHAM NE, 1994, CLIM DYNAM, V10, P135 HARTMANN DL, 2000, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V97, P1412 HASTENRATH S, 1977, Q J ROY METEOR SOC, V103, P77 HODELL DA, 1995, NATURE, V375, P391 HUGHEN KA, 1996, NATURE, V380, P51 HURT DR, 1981, AGR SOCIAL HIST DUST KELLER K, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V47, P17 KNUTTI R, 2002, J CLIMATE, V15, P179 KUTZBACH J, 1996, NATURE, V384, P623 LAIRD KR, 1998, WORLD DATA CTR A PAL LATIF M, 2000, J CLIMATE, V13, P1809 LIU KB, 2001, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V91, P453 LORENZ EN, 1963, J ATMOS SCI, V20, P130 MANABE S, 1997, PALEOCEANOGRAPHY, V12, P321 MANTUA NJ, 1997, B AM METEOROL SOC, V78, P1069 MAROTZKE J, 1990, THESIS I MEERESKUNDE MAROTZKE J, 1996, DECADAL CLIMATE VARI MORRILL CT, IN PRESS HOLOCENE NICHOLSON SE, 1998, B AM METEOROL SOC, V79, P815 NORDHAUS WD, 2000, WARMING WORLD EC MOD OVERPECK JT, 2003, IGBP SYNTHESIS VOLUM, P81 PETEET D, 2000, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V97, P1359 PETEET DM, 1990, QUATERNARY RES, V33, P219 PETERSON BJ, 2002, SCIENCE, V298, P2171 POLZIN KL, 1997, SCIENCE, V276, P93 REILLY JM, 1993, 93012WP MITCEEPR REILLY JM, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P253 SEAGER R, 2002, Q J R METEOROL SOC SELLERS WD, 1969, J APPL METEOROL, V8, P392 SEVERINGHAUS JP, 1998, NATURE, V391, P141 STOCKER TF, 1997, NATURE, V388, P862 STOCKER TF, 2000, QUATERNARY SCI REV, V19, P301 STOCKER TF, 2002, SCIENCE, V297, P1814 STOMMEL H, 1961, TELLUS, V13, P224 STREETS DG, 2000, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V10, P97 TINNER W, 2001, GEOLOGY, V29, P551 WALKER JCG, 1981, J GEOPHYS RES, V86, P9776 WALLACE JM, 2002, PHYS TODAY, V55, P28 WANG YJ, 2001, SCIENCE, V294, P2345 WEISS H, 1993, SCIENCE, V261, P995 WOODHOUSE CA, 1998, B AM METEOROL SOC, V79, P2693 YOHE GW, 1998, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V38, P337 NR 63 TC 26 J9 SCIENCE BP 2005 EP 2010 PY 2003 PD MAR 28 VL 299 IS 5615 GA 660LG UT ISI:000181834200034 ER PT J AU Rappaport, RA TI Maladaptation in social systems SO EVOLUTION SOCIAL SYS LA English DT Chapter RP RAPPAPORT, RA, UNIV MICHIGAN,DEPT ANTHROPOL,ANN ARBOR,MI 48109. NR 0 TC 0 J9 EVOLUTION SOCIAL SYS BP 49 EP 71 PY 1977 PD DEC 29 VL 1 IS 1 GA ZD200 UT ISI:000072661400001 ER PT J AU CROSSON, PR ROSENBERG, NJ TI AN OVERVIEW OF THE MINK STUDY SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 PACIFIC NW LAB, WASHINGTON, DC 20024 USA. RP CROSSON, PR, RESOURCES FUTURE INC, 1616 P ST NW, WASHINGTON, DC 20036 USA. AB Highlights of the previous papers in this series are reviewed. Methodology developed for the MINK study has improved the ability of impacts analysis to deal with questions of (1) spatial and temporal variability in climate change; (2) CO2-enrichment effects; (3) the reactions of complex enterprises (farms and forests) to climate change and their ability to adjust and adapt; and (4) integrated effects on current and, more particularly, on future regional economies. The methodology also provides for systematic study of adjustment and adaptation opportunities and of the inter-industry linkages that determine what the overall impacts on the regional economy might be. The analysis shows that with a 1930s 'dust bowl' climate the region-wide economic impacts would be small, after adjustments in affected sectors. In this final paper we consider whether synergistic effects among sectoral impacts and more severe climate change scenarios might alter this conclusion. The MINK analysis, as is, leads to the conclusion that a strong research capacity will be required to ensure that technologies facilitating adaptation to climate change will be available when needed. The capacity to deal with climate change also requires an open economy allowing for free trade and movement of people and for institutions that protect unpriced environmental values. More severe climate scenarios and negative synergisms can only strengthen these conclusions. CR CROSSON PR, 1991, RESOURCES SPR CROSSON PR, 1989, SCI AM, V260, P128 CROSSON PR, 1991, DOERL01830TH7TR052C EASTERLING WE, 1991, DOERL01830TH8TR052D MANABE S, 1986, SCIENCE, V232, P626 POPPER DE, 1987, PLANNING, V53, P12 ROSENBERG NJ, 1992, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V21, P385 SMITH JB, 1989, POTENTIAL EFFECTS GL NR 8 TC 7 J9 CLIMATIC CHANGE BP 159 EP 173 PY 1993 PD JUN VL 24 IS 1-2 GA LR185 UT ISI:A1993LR18500008 ER PT J AU Kryazhimskii, FV Bolshakov, VN Koryukin, VI TI Man in the light of current ecological problems SO RUSSIAN JOURNAL OF ECOLOGY LA English DT Article C1 Russian Acad Sci, Ural Div, Inst Plant & Anim Ecol, Ekaterinburg 620144, Russia. RP Kryazhimskii, FV, Russian Acad Sci, Ural Div, Inst Plant & Anim Ecol, Ul Vosmogo Marta 202, Ekaterinburg 620144, Russia. AB The interaction of man and nature is considered in terms of classical ecology, which is becoming a synthetic systemic science based on a set of other sciences. The divisions of modem human ecology that deal with different organizational levels of ecological systems have been developed to different degrees. Attention is given to the necessity of discrediting the mechanistic concept of opposition between man and nature and taking into account the specific ecological functions of man related to group adaptation (culture), as well as the global role of all living organisms in the maintenance of environmental conditions on Earth. CR ALEKSEEV VP, 1993, OCHERKI EKOLOGII CHE BAZYKIN AD, 1985, MATEMATICHESKAYA BIO BOLSHAKOV VN, 1996, EKOLOGIYA, V27, P165 BOLSHAKOV VN, 1997, EKOLOGICHESKIE ISSLE, P5 BOLSHAKOV VN, 1998, EKOLOGIYA, V29, P339 DECHARDIN PT, 1955, PHENOMENE HUMAIN GORSHKOV VG, 1988, DOKL AKAD NAUK SSSR, V301, P1015 GORSHKOV VG, 1990, EKOLOGIYA, V21, P7 GORSHKOV VG, 1995, FIZICHESKIE BIOL OSN HAECKEL E, 1866, GEN MORPHOLOGIE ORGA, V1 HENS L, 1996, EKOLOGIYA, V27, P171 HOLLING CS, 1981, IIASA INT SERIES, V3 KAZNACHEEV VP, 1988, OCHERKI TEORII PRAKT KRAYAZHIMSKII FV, 1999, EKOLOGIYA FUNDAMENTA, P48 LORENZ EN, 1963, J ATMOS SCI, V20, P130 LOVELOCK JE, 1979, GAIA NEW LOOK LIFE E MEADOWS DH, 1982, LIMITS CONFRONTING G NICOLIS G, 1989, EXPLORING COMPLEXITY ROZENBERG GS, 1999, EKOLOGIYA, V30, P89 SHILOV IA, 1977, EKOLOGO FIZIOLOGICHE SHVARTS SS, 1967, ZOOL ZH, V46, P1456 SHVARTS SS, 1971, IZV AN SSSR BIOL, V28, P485 SHVARTS SS, 1974, VOPR FILOS, P102 TIMOFEEFRESSOVS.NV, 1973, OCHERK UCHENIYA POPU VERNADSKY VI, 1945, AM SCI, V33, P1 VERNADSKY VI, 1978, ZHIVOE VESHCHESTVO VONBERTALANFFY L, 1969, ISSLEDOVANIYA PO OBS, P23 NR 27 TC 1 J9 RUSS J ECOL-ENGL TR BP 369 EP 374 PY 2001 PD NOV-DEC VL 32 IS 6 GA 499NW UT ISI:000172578100001 ER PT J AU Rosenberg, NJ Edmonds, JA TI Climate change impacts for the conterminous USA: An integrated assessment: From MINK to the 'lower 48' - An introductory editorial SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Editorial Material C1 Univ Maryland, Pacific NW Natl Lab, Joint Global Change Res INst, College Pk, MD 20740 USA. RP Rosenberg, NJ, Univ Maryland, Pacific NW Natl Lab, Joint Global Change Res INst, College Pk, MD 20740 USA. CR *IPCC, 2001, REG IMP CLIM CHANG, CH8 *NAT AC SCI, 1992, POL IMPL GREENH WARM, P541 ALCAMO J, 1994, IMAGE 2 0 INTEGRATED CUBASCH U, 2002, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 DOWLATABADI H, 1993, ENERG POLICY, V21, P209 DOWLATABADI H, 1994, W EC ASS C 29 JUN VA MANNE A, 1995, ENERG POLICY, V23, P17 MORGAN MG, 1996, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V34, P337 MORI S, 1999, INT J GLOBAL ENERGY, V11, P1 MORI S, 2000, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V63, P289 MORITA T, 1994, ASIAN PACIFIC INTEGR NORDHAUS W, 1994, WARMING WORLD EC MOD NORDHAUS W, 1996, DICE MODEL GUIDE PRINN R, 1999, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V41, P469 REILLY JM, 2003, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V57, P43 ROSENBERG NJ, 1982, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V4, P239 ROSENBERG NJ, 1992, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V21, P385 ROSENBERG NJ, 1993, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V24, P1 ROTMANS J, 1990, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V16, P331 ROTMANS J, 1997, PERSPECTIVES GLOBAL SANKOVSKI A, 2000, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V63 NR 21 TC 0 J9 CLIMATIC CHANGE BP 1 EP 6 PY 2005 PD MAR VL 69 IS 1 GA 910UF UT ISI:000227957000001 ER PT J AU Menzel, A Von Vopelius, J Estrella, N Schleip, C Dose, V TI Farmers' annual activities are not tracking the speed of climate change SO CLIMATE RESEARCH LA English DT Article C1 Tech Univ Munich, Dept Ecol, Chair Ecoclimatol, D-85354 Freising Weihenstephan, Germany. Max Planck Inst Plasma Phys, D-85748 Garching, Germany. RP Menzel, A, Tech Univ Munich, Dept Ecol, Chair Ecoclimatol, Am Hochabger 13, D-85354 Freising Weihenstephan, Germany. AB Global climate change impacts are already tracked in many physical and biological systems and they reveal a consistent picture of changes, e.g. an earlier onset of spring events in mid and higher latitudes and a lengthening of the plant growing season. However, available results are mainly based on the study of wild plants, whereas only a few studies have hinted at an earlier spring onset for agricultural plants. So far, no comprehensive study has compared phenological shifts between agricultural crops, fruit trees and wild plants. We analysed phenological time series of 93 phases in Germany (1951-2004) employing Bayesian nonparametric function estimation, and found that events related to the production of annual crops clearly differ from spring and summer events in wild plants and fruit trees. While non-farmer driven agricultural events and spring and summer growth stages of wild plants and fruit trees advanced (i.e. occurred earlier) by 4.4 to 7.1 d decade(-1), farming indicators, such as sowing and subsequent emergence of spring and winter crops, as well as harvesting, advanced by only 2.1 d decade(-1). The estimated functional behaviour and emergence of discontinuous changes are clearly different between the 2 groups. We conclude that phenological responses to temperature changes are only reflected in data of wild plants, fruit trees and those spring growth stages of winter crops and later growth stages of spring crops which are exclusively triggered by climate, while other changes due to agricultural production are subject to management practice alterations. CR *IPCC, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 CHMIELEWSKI FM, 2004, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V121, P69 DELATORRE C, 2004, JOURNEES MICCES ISLE DOSE V, 2004, GLOBAL CHANGE BIOL, V10, P259 DOSE V, 2006, GLOBAL CHANGE BIOL, V12, P1451 FITTER AH, 2002, SCIENCE, V296, P1689 HILDEN M, 2005, MIMEOGRAPHS FINNISH, V335 KEELING CD, 1996, NATURE, V382, P146 MENZEL A, 1999, NATURE, V397, P659 MENZEL A, 2000, AUSWERTUNG PHANOLOGI MENZEL A, 2003, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V57, P243 MENZEL A, 2006, GLOBAL CHANGE BIOL, V12, P1969 MYNENI RB, 1997, NATURE, V386, P698 PARMESAN C, 2003, NATURE, V421, P37 ROOT TL, 2003, NATURE, V421, P57 SCHNELLE F, 1955, PFLANZEN PHANOLOGIE SPARKS TH, 2002, INT J CLIMATOL, V22, P1715 STUDER S, 2005, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V73, P395 WALTHER GR, 2002, NATURE, V416, P389 ZHOU LM, 2001, J GEOPHYS RES-ATMOS, V106, P20069 NR 20 TC 0 J9 CLIMATE RES BP 201 EP 207 PY 2006 PD OCT 26 VL 32 IS 3 GA 125CQ UT ISI:000243419500004 ER PT J AU Wilbanks, TJ TI Issues in developing a capacity for integrated analysis of mitigation and adaptation SO ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE & POLICY LA English DT Article C1 Oak Ridge Natl Lab, Div Environm Sci, Oak Ridge, TN 37831 USA. RP Wilbanks, TJ, Oak Ridge Natl Lab, Div Environm Sci, POB 2008, Oak Ridge, TN 37831 USA. AB As policymakers and stakeholders increasingly consider relative merits and complementarities of climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies, it is important to improve analytical capacities to support this process. Because a single analytical approach is unlikely to fit all needs, this paper explores potentials for an integrated analytical framework that incorporates both top-down and bottom-up approaches. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *ORNL CUSAT, 2003, POSS VULN COCH IND C DOWLATABADI H, 1993, ENERG POLICY, V21, P209 DOWLATABDI H, 2002, INTEGR ASSESS, V3, P122 HILDEBRAND SG, 1993, ENV ANAL NEPA EXPERI KATES RW, 2001, SCIENCE, V292, P641 ROOT TL, 1995, SCIENCE, V269, P334 SCHNEIDER SH, 2000, PACIFIC ASIAN J ENER, V10, P81 TOTH F, 2001, GUIDANCE PAPERS CROS, P53 WILBANKS TJ, 2002, INTEGRATED ASSESSMEN, V3, P100 WILBANKS TJ, 2003, ENVIRONMENT, V45, P28 WILBANKS TJ, 2003, INTEGRATED ANAL MITI WILBANKS TJ, 2005, BRIDGING SCALES EPIS WILBANKS TJ, 2005, CHALLENGES INTEGRATI NR 13 TC 1 J9 ENVIRON SCI POLICY BP 541 EP 547 PY 2005 VL 8 IS 6 GA 991MD UT ISI:000233817200002 ER PT J AU Munasinghe, M TI Exploring the linkages between climate change and sustainable development: A challenge for transdisciplinary research SO CONSERVATION ECOLOGY LA English DT Editorial Material C1 Munasinghe Inst Dev, MIND, Colombo 5, Sri Lanka. RP Munasinghe, M, Munasinghe Inst Dev, MIND, 10-1 Fonseka Pl, Colombo 5, Sri Lanka. AB In recent years, both sustainable development and climate change have become well known worldwide, and the work of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has also focused on the nexus of these two key topics. The IPCC third assessment report confirms that global mean temperatures will rise 1.5-6 degrees Celsius during the next century. Furthermore, climate change will significantly affect the economic, social, and environmental dimensions of sustainable development, as well as key issues like poverty and equity. Therefore, the IPCC is seeking answers to important questions: how future development patterns will affect climate change; how climate change impacts, adaptation, and mitigation will affect future sustainable development prospects; and how climate change responses might be better integrated into emerging sustainable development strategies. Some key lessons have emerged from these efforts. The IPCC intellectual community has already proved to be quite cohesive and resilient in the face of determined attacks by powerful and well-financed "anti-climate change" lobbies. While addressing sustainable development issues, adaptation and learning within the IPCC have further strengthened the network. First, fresh ideas have been brought in to catalyze change. Transdisciplinary approaches are essential to deal with large-scale, long-term, complex, and interlinked issues like sustainable development and climate change. Second, the disciplinary mix has continued to evolve to meet the challenge. However, crossing disciplinary and cultural boundaries requires sound knowledge of one's own discipline (especially its limitations), open-mindedness, great patience, and sincere effort on all sides. Third, IPCC internal processes have adjusted to facilitate beneficial changes, while limiting harmful dissension. E-mail has proved to be a powerful, but potentially risky tool. How something is said could be as important as what is said, to ensure effective communication. Despite some difficult moments, fair-mindedness and good will have prevailed. The IPCC has been able to accommodate different ways of thinking about the problem, as well as new modes of communication, while reinforcing desirable codes of conduct and behavioral norms. CR GUNDERSON LH, 2002, PANARCHY UNDERSTANDI, V1, P1 HOLLING CS, 1998, CONSERV ECOL, V2, P1 MUNASINGHE M, 1993, ENV EC SUSTAINABLE D MUNASINGHE M, 2000, DEV EQUITY SUSTAINAB MUNASINGHE M, 2001, INT J SUSTAINABLE DE, V4 NR 5 TC 3 J9 CONSERV ECOL BP 1 EP 14 PY 2001 PD JUN VL 5 IS 1 GA 458XV UT ISI:000170221500020 ER PT J AU Lin, ED Xiong, W Ju, H Xu, YL Li, Y Bai, LP Xie, LY TI Climate change impacts on crop yield and quality with CO2 fertilization in China SO PHILOSOPHICAL TRANSACTIONS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY B-BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES LA English DT Article C1 Chinese Acad Agr Sci, Agroenvironm & Sustainable Dev Inst, Beijing 100081, Peoples R China. RP Lin, ED, Chinese Acad Agr Sci, Agroenvironm & Sustainable Dev Inst, Beijing 100081, Peoples R China. AB A regional climate change model (PRECIS) for China, developed by the UK's Hadley Centre, was used to simulate China's climate and to develop climate change scenarios for the country. Results from this project suggest that, depending on the level of future emissions, the average annual temperature increase in China by the end of the twenty-first century may be between 3 and 4 degrees C. Regional crop models were driven by PRECIS output to predict changes in yields of key Chinese food crops: rice, maize and wheat. Modelling suggests that climate change without carbon dioxide (CO2) fertilization could reduce the rice, maize and wheat yields by up to 37% in the next 20-80 years. Interactions of CO2 with limiting factors, especially water and nitrogen, are increasingly well understood and capable of strongly modulating observed growth responses in crops. More complete reporting of free-air carbon enrichment experiments than was possible in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Third Assessment Report confirms that CO2 enrichment under field conditions consistently increases biomass and yields in the range of 5-15%, with CO2 concentration elevated to 550 ppm Levels of CO2 that are elevated to more than 450 ppm will probably cause some deleterious effects in grain quality. It seems likely that the extent of the CO2 fertilization effect will depend upon other factors such as optimum breeding, irrigation and nutrient applications. CR AINSWORTH EA, 2005, NEW PHYTOL, V165, P351 BAI LP, 2004, P WORLD ENG CONV, E, P252 BLANCHE B, 1986, J SCI FOOD AGR, V37, P435 BLUMENTHAL C, 1996, CEREAL CHEM, V73, P762 CAMPBELL CA, 1981, CAN J PLANT SCI, V61, P435 HAKALA K, 1998, EUR J AGRON, V9, P41 HENDREY GR, 1994, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V70, P3 JONES PG, 2003, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V13, P51 JU H, 2005, ACTA AGRONOMIC SINIC, V31, P24 KIMBALL BA, 2001, NEW PHYTOL, V150, P295 MATTHEWS RB, 2000, NUTR CYCL AGROECOSYS, V58, P161 MONJE O, 1998, PLANT CELL ENVIRON, V21, P315 RANDALL PJ, 1990, AUST J AGR RES, V41, P603 RITCHIE JT, 1998, UNDERSTANDING OPTION, P79 ROGERS GS, 1996, AUST J PLANT PHYSIOL, V23, P253 ROSENZWEIG C, 1999, ENVIRON MODEL ASSESS, V4, P115 SHAOBING P, 2003, PLANT PROD SCI, V6, P157 SOUTHWORTH J, 2000, AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON, V82, P139 TANG R, 1998, LIFE SCI, V10, P159 TESTER RF, 1995, J CEREAL SCI, V22, P63 WILLIAMS M, 1995, PLANT CELL ENVIRON, V18, P999 WRIGLEY CW, 1994, AUST J PLANT PHYSIOL, V21, P875 WU YH, 1989, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V49, P9 XIONG W, 2005, CHIN J AGROMETEOROL, V26, P11 YINLONG X, 2004, CHIN J AGROMETEOROL, V25, P5 NR 25 TC 2 J9 PHIL TRANS ROY SOC B-BIOL SCI BP 2149 EP 2154 PY 2005 PD NOV 29 VL 360 IS 1463 GA 986CS UT ISI:000233427400014 ER PT J AU Briceno-Elizondo, E Garcia-Gonzalo, J Peltola, H Matala, J Kellomaki, S TI Sensitivity of growth of Scots pine, Norway spruce and silver birch to climate change and forest management in boreal conditions SO FOREST ECOLOGY AND MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article C1 Univ Joensuu, Fac Forestry, FI-80101 Joensuu, Finland. RP Kellomaki, S, Univ Joensuu, Fac Forestry, POB 111, FI-80101 Joensuu, Finland. AB An assessment is made on how climate change and thinning may affect the total stem wood growth of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris), Norway spruce (Picea abies) and silver birch (Betula pendula), and the resulting effects on the total timber yield and the consequent distribution of timber between pulp wood and saw logs. A process-based model used in the study links the flows of carbon, energy, nitrogen and water in trees and soils as affecting the physiological and ecological performance of trees under the control of climatic and edaphic factors and management. The simulations represent the boreal forest in Southern and Northern Finland. Under thinning, the climate change increased the growth of Scots pine up to 28% in the south and up to 54% in the north, whereas the increase for Norway spruce was up to 24% in the south and 40% in the north. The response of silver birch was smaller than that of conifers; i.e. growth increased by 21% in the south and 34% in the north. The enhanced growth implied an increase in the timber yield regardless of tree species and site. The increase for Scots pine was up to 26% in the south and 50% in the north. For Norway spruce, the increase was somewhat smaller, up to 23% in the south and up to 40% in the north. For silver birch, the increase was the smallest, up to 20%,in the south and up to 33% in the north. The thinning regime had, however, a clear effect on total growth and timber yield. Any thinning regime increasing the mean stocking over the rotation increased the total growth and timber yield regardless of the tree species and site. An adaptation of the current management rules might be needed in order to exploit the benefits that climate change seems to provide in the form of increased growth and timber yield in the boreal conditions. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. CR BERNINGER F, 2004, TREE PHYSIOL, V24, P193 CHERTOV OG, 1997, ECOL MODEL, V94, P177 FARQUHAR GD, 1980, PLANTA, V149, P67 GOUGH CM, 2004, FOREST SCI, V50, P1 HANNINEN H, 2002, FOREST ECOL MANAG, V169, P53 HOUGHTON JT, 1992, CLIMATE CHANGE 1992 HUSTISCH I, 1948, ACTA BOT FENN, V42, P1 HYNYNEN J, 1993, SCAND J FOR RES, V8, P326 HYNYNEN J, 2002, 8356 METLA, P1 KARJALAINEN T, 1996, FOREST ECOL MANAG, V80, P113 KELLOMAKI S, 1993, FOREST ECOL MANAG, V59, P237 KELLOMAKI S, 1995, CAN J FOREST RES, V25, P929 KELLOMAKI S, 1996, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V32, P423 KELLOMAKI S, 1997, ECOL MODEL, V97, P121 KELLOMAKI S, 1997, FOREST ECOL MANAG, V94, P195 KELLOMAKI S, 1997, FOREST ECOL MANAG, V99, P309 KELLOMAKI S, 2000, PHOTOSYNTHETICA, V38, P69 KELLOMAKI S, 2001, ATMOS ENVIRON, V35, P1491 KIRSCHBAUM MUF, 1995, SOIL BIOL BIOCHEM, V27, P753 KOIVISTO P, 1962, COMMUN I FOREST FENN, V65, P1 KRAMER K, 2002, GLOBAL CHANGE BIOL, V8, P1 LASCH P, 2002, FOREST ECOL MANAG, V162, P73 LASCH P, 2005, FOREST ECOL MANAG, V207, P59 LAUREN A, 2005, HYDROL EARTH SYST SC, V9, P657 LINDER S, 1984, NUTR PLANTATION FORE, P211 LINDNER M, 2000, TREE PHYSIOL, V20, P299 LLOYD J, 1994, FUNCT ECOL, V8, P315 MAKELA A, 2000, TREE PHYSIOL, V20, P347 MAKINEN H, 2004, FOREST ECOL MANAG, V201, P311 MAKINEN H, 2004, FOREST ECOL MANAG, V203, P21 MATALA J, 2003, ECOL MODEL, V161, P95 MELILLO JM, 1993, NATURE, V363, P234 OKERBLOM P, 1989, ECOL MODEL, V49, P73 PELKONEN P, 1980, FLORA, V169, P398 PENG P, 2002, ECOL MODEL, P177 PUSSINEN A, 2002, FOREST ECOL MANAG, V158, P103 REICH JW, 1992, TELLUS B, V44, P81 ROBERNTZ P, 1998, TREE PHYSIOL, V18, P233 SABATE S, 2002, FOREST ECOL MANAG, V162, P23 SPITTLEHOUSE DL, 2003, BC J ECOSYSTEMS MANA, V4, P1 STRANDMAN H, 1993, ECOL MODEL, V70, P195 TALKKARI A, 1996, FOREST ECOL MANAG, V83, P217 TALKKARI A, 1996, SILVA FENNICA, V30, P247 TALKKARI A, 1998, FOREST ECOL MANAG, V106, P97 THORNLEY JHM, 2000, TREE PHYSIOL, V20, P477 VAISANEN H, 1994, TREE PHYSIOL, V14, P1081 VENALAINEN A, 2001, CLIMATE RES, V17, P63 VONCAEMMERER S, 1981, PLANTA, V153, P376 VRJOLA T, 2002, EFI INT REP, V11, P1 WANG LD, 1996, CHINA NATL J NEW GAS, V2, P82 NR 50 TC 0 J9 FOREST ECOL MANAGE BP 152 EP 167 PY 2006 PD AUG 15 VL 232 IS 1-3 GA 075DV UT ISI:000239864300017 ER PT J AU Blockley, SPE Blockley, SM Donahue, RE Lane, CS Lowe, JJ Pollard, AM TI The chronology of abrupt climate change and Late Upper Palaeolithic human adaptation in Europe SO JOURNAL OF QUATERNARY SCIENCE LA English DT Article C1 Univ Oxford, Archaeol & Hist Art Res Lab, Oxford OX1 3QY, England. Univ Bradford, Dept Archaeol Sci, Bradford BD7 1DP, W Yorkshire, England. Royal Holloway Univ London, Dept Geog, Egham TW20 0EX, Surrey, England. RP Blockley, SPE, Univ Oxford, Archaeol & Hist Art Res Lab, Dyson Perrins Bldg,S Parks Rd, Oxford OX1 3QY, England. AB This paper addresses the possible connections between the onset of human expansion in Europe following the Last Glacial Maximum, and the timing of abrupt climate warming at the onset of the Lateglacial (Bolling/Allerod) Interstadial. There are opposing views as to whether or not human populations and activities were directly 'forced' by climate change, based on different comparisons between archaeological and environmental data. We review the geochronological assumptions and approaches on which data comparisons have been attempted in the past, and argue that the uncertainties presently associated with age models based on calibrated radiocarbon dates preclude robust testing of the competing models, particularly when comparing the data to non-radiocarbon-based timescales such as the Greenland ice core records. The paper concludes with some suggestions as to the steps that will be necessary if more robust tests of the models are to be developed in the future. Copyright (C) 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 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KM539 UT ISI:A1980KM53900021 ER PT J AU ROSENBERG, NJ CROSSON, PR TI THE MINK PROJECT - A NEW METHODOLOGY FOR IDENTIFYING REGIONAL INFLUENCES OF, AND RESPONSES TO, INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC CO2 AND CLIMATE CHANGE SO ENVIRONMENTAL CONSERVATION LA English DT Article RP ROSENBERG, NJ, ENERGY & NAT RESOURCES DIV,CLIMATE RESOURCES PROGRAM,1616 P ST NW,WASHINGTON,DC 20036. AB In a study that was recently completed at Resources for the Future, the impacts of a future change in climate on the total economy of the Missouri-Iowa-Nebraska-Kansas (MINK) region were assessed, as were the possibilities of response (including adaptation) to the climatic change. Impacts on agriculture, forestry, water resources, and energy, were emphasized. The study was future-oriented, focusing on the year 2030, by which time the effects of 'greenhouse' warming may be felt. The records of the AD 1930s were used to provide an analog of the kinds of climate change (warmer and drier) that climate models predict will occur in the MINK region. Our results indicate that impacts of the projected climate change on agriculture, at least in the future, are expected to be profound, but that likely-to-be available technologies should facilitate substantial adaptation; that current water-resource limitations in the region would be exacerbated and lead to an eastward shift in irrigation; that impacts on forestry would be severe, and that opportunities for forestry adaptation would be very limited unless biomass production were to become economically viable; and that the net impacts on energy supply and demand would be small and adaptation to them relatively simple. Climate change in the MINK region could, of course, go somewhat beyond the conditions represented by the AD 1930s analog, in which case the findings of this study may be too optimistic. However, the future-oriented 'MINK methodology' is not scenario-dependent, and can be used to test other, more severe (or benign), scenarios as well. Further, the capacity for adaptation to climate change demonstrated in this study, may remain applicable even in more stringent circumstances. CR 1990, IPCC SCI ASSESSMENT 1990, REGIONAL PROJECTIONS, V1 ALWARD GS, 1986, IMPLAN VERSION 2 0 M ALWARD GS, 1989, MICRO IMPLAN METHODS CROSSON PR, 1989, LONG TERM ADEQUACY A GATES WL, 1985, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V7, P267 MANABE S, 1986, SCIENCE, V232, P626 MAVET EF, 1978, DEC C DROUGHT MAN MA PARRY ML, 1988, IMPACT CLIMATIC VARI, V1, R12 PERLACK RD, 1987, J ENERG ENG-ASCE, V113, P92 ROSENBERG NJ, 1990, CLIMATE CHANGE US WA, P151 SCOTT MJ, 1990, INFORMAL C REP INT W SMITH JB, 1989, EPA2300589053 OFF PO SOLOMON AM, 1986, OECOLOGIA, V68, P567 STOCKLE CO, 1992, IN PRESS AGR SYSTEMS WILLIAMS JR, 1984, T ASAE, V27, P129 NR 16 TC 6 J9 ENVIRON CONSERV BP 313 EP 322 PY 1991 PD WIN VL 18 IS 4 GA HP365 UT ISI:A1991HP36500008 ER PT J AU WATTS, MJ TI THE GEOGRAPHY OF POSTCOLONIAL AFRICA - SPACE, PLACE AND DEVELOPMENT IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA (1960-93) SO SINGAPORE JOURNAL OF TROPICAL GEOGRAPHY LA English DT Review RP WATTS, MJ, UNIV CALIF BERKELEY,BERKELEY,CA 94720. AB This overview of human geographic studies of sub-Saharan Africa begins with the contributions made by West European geographers to the colonial service, and the growing interest in post-war 'development' and to the anti-imperial movements in the late colonial period (1945-60). The paper provides an intellectual map of the contributions by European and African geographers to the broad array of development problems which emerged after 1960. North American geographers made significant contributions to the debate somewhat later, particularly in association with the growing involvement of U.S. development agencies in the 1970s. Particular emphasis is given to geographic studies in fields such as agrarian change, ecological degradation, industrialization, human mobility and patterns of urbanization and settlement. 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CRISIS CAUSES TOMLINSON R, 1987, REGIONAL RESTRUCTURI TOYE J, 1987, DILEMMAS DEV TURNER B, 1977, THESIS U LONDON TURNER M, 1992, THESIS U CALIFORNIA VENNETIER P, 1972, 10 ETUDES APPROVISIO VENNETIER P, 1977, NOUVELLES RECHERCHES VENNETIER P, 1989, PERIURBANISATION PAY WATTS MJ, 1983, SILENT VIOLENCE FOOD WATTS MJ, 1987, DROUGHT HUNGER AFRIC, P171 WATTS MJ, 1991, TRANSITIONS, V15, P125 WATTS MJ, 1989, PROG HUM GEOG, V13, P1 WATTS MJ, 1993, PROG HUM GEOG, V17, P257 WEINER D, 1985, J MOD AFR STUD, V23, P251 WEINER D, 1988, DEV CHANGE, V20, P401 WERBNER RP, 1990, LOCALIZING STRATEGIE, P152 WESTERN D, 1981, OUTCAST CAPE TOWN WHEATLEY P, 1972, PIVOT 4 QUARTERS PRE WISNER B, 1976, 30 I BEH SCI WORK PA WISNER B, 1977, LANDUSE DEV, P194 WISNER B, 1988, POWER NEED AFRICA NR 153 TC 2 J9 SING J TROP GEOGR BP 173 EP 190 PY 1993 PD DEC VL 14 IS 2 GA NJ227 UT ISI:A1993NJ22700006 ER PT J AU Grothmann, T Reusswig, F TI People at risk of flooding: Why some residents take precautionary action while others do not SO NATURAL HAZARDS LA English DT Article C1 Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res, Dept Global Change & Social Syst, D-14412 Potsdam, Germany. RP Grothmann, T, Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res, Dept Global Change & Social Syst, 60 12 03, D-14412 Potsdam, Germany. AB Self-protective behavior by residents of flood-prone urban areas can reduce monetary flood damage by 80%, and reduce the need for public risk management. But, research on the determinants of private households' prevention of damage by natural hazards is rare, especially in Germany. To answer the question of why some people take precautionary action while others do not, a socio-psychological model based on Protection Motivation Theory (PMT) is developed, explaining private precautionary damage prevention by residents' perceptions of previous flood experience, risk of future floods, reliability of public flood protection, the efficacy and costs of self-protective behavior, their perceived ability to perform these actions, and non-protective responses like wishful thinking. The validity of the proposed model is explored by means of representative quantitative telephone surveys and regression analyses, and compared with a socio-economic model (including residents' age, gender, income, school degree and being owner or tenant). Participants were 157 residents of flood-prone homes in Cologne, Germany, a city that has traditionally been subject to minor and major flood events. Results of the study show the explanatory power of the socio-psychological model, with important implications for public risk communication efforts. To motivate residents in flood-prone areas to take their share in damage prevention, it is essential to communicate not only the risk of flooding and its potential consequences, but also the possibility, effectiveness and cost of private precautionary measures. 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Knowledge and experience of adapting to climatic conditions has been built up over a millennia by communities in many parts of the world, including developing countries, often on the basis of experimentation initiated by communities. The synthesis brings together the main insights and conclusions from case studies describing examples of successful community-led interventions in six countries: China, India, Bangladesh, Senegal, Kenya and Zimbabwe. The climate impacts studied include "headline-grabbing" extreme events, such as national floods, and quieter forms of climatic disaster such as long-term aridity/drought, temperature increase and wind-related land degradation. The synthesis examines the roles played by formal and informal institutions, policy champions, donors, knowledge and research in decreasing vulnerabilities and supporting community-led adaptation to climate change. CR *CRS ODI ICRISAT, 2002, SEED VOUCH FAIRS MAN *IPCC, 2001, 3 IPCC NR 2 TC 0 J9 IDS BULL-INST DEVELOP STUD BP 117 EP + PY 2005 PD OCT VL 36 IS 4 GA 989QD UT ISI:000233687900009 ER PT J AU Yamin, F Rahman, A Huq, S TI Vulnerability, adaptation and climate disasters: A conceptual overview SO IDS BULLETIN-INSTITUTE OF DEVELOPMENT STUDIES LA English DT Article AB The articles in this IDS Bulletin present insights from the Linking Climate Adaptation (LCA) Project that aimed to ensure that poor people benefit from adaptation processes, rather than bearing greater burdens by, for example, having the risks caused by climate change shifted in their direction. The key research aim of the LCA Project was to determine what kind of procedural and institutional frameworks are needed to ensure that locally determined adaptation needs are linked "upwards" to national and international policy and institutional structures. The overview brings together policy relevant insights on this question whilst also explaining the conceptual underpinnings of the project, focusing on the nature of vulnerability and adaptation and policy processes to support community-led adaptation. The key conclusions are that climate change is a serious, ongoing threat to development and will add burdens to those who are already poor and vulnerable, and that climate vulnerability analysis should be incorporated systematically into the three main policy and institutional frameworks relevant for adaptation: development, disaster relief and climate change. Ways of fostering conceptual, operational and institutional linkages between these three domains are described, focusing on how these can help communities take centre stage in conducting vulnerability analysis and implementation to enhance their long-term capacities for adaptation. CR *ACTIONAID, 2005, PART VULN AN STEP ST *BCAS, 2005, REP COMM LEV AD *DFID, 2005, DIS RISK RED DEV CON *IDS, 2005, IDS B, V36 *IISD, 2003, LIV CLIM CHANG COMB *IPCC, 2001, 3 IPCC *IPCC, 2001, SYNTH REP 3 ASS REP *UNDP, 2005, AD POL FRAM CLIM CHA ALLOT P, 1990, EUNOMIA NEW ORDER NE ALLOT P, 2002, HLTH NATIONS SOC LAW ARCHARYA A, 2004, 21 IDS BARRETT C, 2004, POVERTY TRAPS SAFETY BARROW CJ, 2003, ENV CHANGE HUMAN DEV BOJO J, 2002, POVERTY REDUCTION ST BRAITHWAITE J, 2000, GLOBAL BUSINESS REGU BROOKS N, 2004, NEW INDICATORS VULNE BURTON I, 2004, LOOK LEAP RISK MANAG CALLON M, 1989, KNOWLEDGE SOC, V8, P57 CANNON T, 2004, SOCIAL VULNERABILITY CARNEY D, 1999, LIVELIHOOD APPROACHE CARNEY D, 2002, SUSTAINABLE LIVELIHO CHAMBERS R, 1989, IDS B, V20, P1 CHAMBERS R, 2005, IDEAS DEV COOPER F, 1997, INTRO INT CORNWALL A, 2004, IDS B, V35 DEVEREUX S, 2004, 232 IDS DOYAL L, 1991, THEORY HUMAN NEEDS EASTERLING G, 2004, PEW PAPER EYBEN R, 2003, 17 IDS FUSSEL H, 2002, UNDP EXP GROUP M INT GRUBB M, 2001, INT AFFAIRS, V2 HAIN P, 2001, REDEFINING FOREIGN P HAQ M, 1995, REFLECTIONS HUMAN DE HARCOURT W, 2002, DEVELOPMENT, V45, P7 HULME D, 2005, IDENTIFYING UNDERSTA HUQ S, 2003, MAINSTREAMING ADAPTA KANIE N, 2004, EMERGING FORCES ENV KEELEY J, 2003, UNDERSTANDING ENV PO KJELLEN J, 2004, IDS B, V35 LATOUR B, 1994, SCI ACTION FOLLOW SC LEACH M, 1997, IDS BULL-I DEV STUD, V28, P4 MAXWELL S, 1994, IDS B, V25 MEHTA L, 2001, IDS B, V32 MOENCH M, 2004, ADAPTIVE CAPACITY LI MUNTON R, 2003, NEGOTIATING ENV CHAN NUSSBAUM M, 2000, WOMEN HUMAN DEV CAPA NYAMUMUSEMBI C, 2004, 234 IDS OBRIEN KL, 2004, CICERO WORKING PAPER PIMBERT M, 2004, PARTICIPATORY LEARNI, V50 REUSSMIT C, 2004, POLITICS INT LAW SCHOON M, 2005, W054 IND U WORKSH PO SCOONES I, 1998, 72 IDS SEN AK, 1999, DEV FREEDOM SIMMS A, 2005, AFRICA SMOKE SPERLING F, 2003, POVERTY CLIMATE CHAN SPERLING F, 2005, WORLD C DIS RED BEH STEINS N, 2001, IDS B, V32 STIRLING A, 2003, NEGOTIATING ENV CHAN TEARFUND, 2005, IN PRESS MAINSTREAMI TWIGG J, 2001, SUSTAINABLE LIVELIHO VENEKLASEN L, 2004, 235 IDS WISNER B, 2004, RISK NATURAL HAZARDS YAMIN F, 2004, IDS BULL-I DEV STUD, V35, P1 YAMIN F, 2004, INT CLIMATE CHANGE R, CH19 YAMIN F, 2005, CLIMATE POL, V5, P349 NR 65 TC 0 J9 IDS BULL-INST DEVELOP STUD BP 1 EP + PY 2005 PD OCT VL 36 IS 4 GA 989QD UT ISI:000233687900002 ER PT J AU KOLB, MJ TI RITUAL ACTIVITY AND CHIEFLY ECONOMY AT AN UPLAND RELIGIOUS SITE ON MAUI, HAWAII SO JOURNAL OF FIELD ARCHAEOLOGY LA English DT Article RP KOLB, MJ, STATE HISTOR PRESERVAT DIV,DEPT LAND & NAT RESOURCES,POB 621,HONOLULU,HI 96809. AB This report describes Molohai heiau, a Hawaiian upland religious site, within the context of human ritual activity and chiefly productive economy. Molohai represents a series of occupational episodes that date between A.C. 1057 and 1920. The site contains an unusual sequence of faunal material, where domestic pig replaced wild birds and fish as a chiefly commodity, sacrificial offering, or feasting food. The ritual connotation of these offerings is also linked to the upland productive economy and chiefly surplus of foodstuffs. Molohai is also notable because it definitively links the role of human predation in the extirpation of terrestrial avifauna. Most interesting is that certain forest-adapted bird species were hunted, perhaps for their feathers or meat, and became extinct between A.C. 1057 and 1440. This suggests that status differentiation was occurring relatively early in the scope of Hawaiian culture, and that deforestation and upland agricultural intensification occurred relatively late in the human occupational sequence of Hawai'i. Unfortunately, such cumulative environmental effects precipitated serious and irreversible changes in terrestrial bird life. 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ENEA, I-00060 Rome, Italy. ICRAM, I-30015 Venice, Italy. RP Brando, VE, CSIRO Land & Water, GPO Box 1666, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia. AB Comparative analysis of trophic networks was carried out to evaluate environmental management actions aimed at countering an environmental crisis in Orbetello Lagoon, Italy. Two mass-balance models of this shallow water coastal system were constructed, for 1995 and 1996. During this period, there was an observed change in the composition of the submerged vegetation that indicated a significant improvement in the lagoon's ecology. Mass-balance models were built using the Ecopath modelling software in order to explain the energy transfer through the trophic levels (TLs) of the lagoon's ecosystem. Comparative analysis of the two trophic networks allowed a complete description of the lagoon, and gave clear indications regarding the 'eutrophication level' sensu Nixon and the stage of system maturity sensu Odum of the ecosystem for the 2 years. The turnover rate (production/biomass ratio) of pleustophytes was proposed as an indicator of "environmental health" at the ecosystem level because it allows positioning the submerged vegetation as a whole along an axis of adaptation strategies to natural selection. All the indices of ecosystem maturity and stability examined showed that the lagoon was in a more stable condition in 1996 than in 1995, although the system was still in a condition of stress. The effects of management actions carried out in the system were quantified by estimating the changes in primary production and accumulation of detritus in the system. Management of the lagoon as an extensive aquaculture operation was assessed by analysing the fishery catch, the transfer efficiencies at different trophic levels and the impact of cormorants, and it was found to contribute to system stability. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 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Lund Univ, Dept Environm & Energy Syst Studies, S-22362 Lund, Sweden. RP Neij, L, Lund Univ, Int Inst Ind Environm Econ, POB 196, S-22100 Lund, Sweden. AB The aim of this paper is to propose a framework for the evaluation of policy instruments designed to affect development and dissemination of new energy technologies. The evaluation approach is based on the analysis of selected outcome indicators describing the process of technical change, i.e. the development and dissemination of new energy technologies, on the basis of a socio-technical systems approach. The outcome indicators are used to analyse the effect, in terms of outcome, and outcome scope of the policy instruments as well as the extent to which the policy instruments support diversity, learning and institutional change. The analysis of two cases of evaluations, of energy efficiency policy and wind energy policy in Sweden, shows that the approach has several advantages, allowing continuous evaluation and providing important information for the redesign of policy instruments. There are also disadvantages associated with the approach, such as complexity, possible high cost and the requirement of qualified evaluators. Nevertheless, it is concluded that the information on the continuous performance of different policy instruments and their effects on the introduction and dissemination of new energy technologies, provided by this evaluation approach, is essential for an improved adaptation and implementation of energy and climate policy. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 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Univ Washington, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Seattle, WA 98195 USA. RP Barnett, TP, Univ Calif San Diego, Scripps Inst Oceanog, Div Climate Res, La Jolla, CA 92093 USA. AB All currently available climate models predict a near-surface warming trend under the influence of rising levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. In addition to the direct effects on climate-for example, on the frequency of heatwaves-this increase in surface temperatures has important consequences for the hydrological cycle, particularly in regions where water supply is currently dominated by melting snow or ice. In a warmer world, less winter precipitation falls as snow and the melting of winter snow occurs earlier in spring. Even without any changes in precipitation intensity, both of these effects lead to a shift in peak river runoff to winter and early spring, away from summer and autumn when demand is highest. Where storage capacities are not sufficient, much of the winter runoff will immediately be lost to the oceans. With more than one-sixth of the Earth's population relying on glaciers and seasonal snow packs for their water supply, the consequences of these hydrological changes for future water availability-predicted with high confidence and already diagnosed in some regions-are likely to be severe. 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AB Drought is an ancient natural hazard that has probably killed more people than any other. It is difficult to mark the start and end of drought because the moisture deficit develops slowly over weeks, months, or years. Atmospheric scientists can neither forecast nor control drought. Drought mitigation must focus on reducing the underlying physical and social vulnerability. Short-term adjustments do not yield a lasting adaptation to drought. Some argue that repetitive food aid may worsen long-term food-production problems and land degradation by deferring more fundamental adjustments. Decisionmakers need better information and a broader range of adjustment options in order to reduce drought vulnerability. A linking of global warming/climate change studies with drought studies can yield insights into how societies might deal with climate change and help define the potential for future drought. (Ed.) 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Univ Edinburgh, Sch Geosci, Edinburgh EH8 9YL, Midlothian, Scotland. Univ Oxford, Sch Geog & Environm, Oxford OX1 2JD, England. World Agroforestry Ctr, Alternat Slash & Burn Programme, Nairobi, Kenya. Univ Southampton, Dept Geog, Southampton SO9 5NH, Hants, England. RP Moran, D, Scottish Agr Coll, Kings Bldg,W Main Rd, Edinburgh EH9 3JG, Midlothian, Scotland. AB This study quantifies the economic costs of climate change impacts on protected areas in Africa. Downscaled results from four Global Circulation Models (GCMs) are used to classify different ecosystems in accordance with the Holdridge Life Zone (HLZ) system. A benefits transfer approach is then used to place an economic value on the predicted ecosystem shifts resulting from climate change in protected areas. The results provide approximations for the impacts on biodiversity in Africa under the "business-as-usual" scenario established by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) for the middle and end of the 21st century. The geographical analysis shows that there are twenty HLZs in Africa and all of them are represented in the protected area network. Three of these HLZs do not change in extent as a result of climate change. Assuming initially that the willingness to pay (WTP) values and the preferences for different ecosystem services remain constant, three of the GCM models show an (undiscounted) negative economic impact of climate change for protected areas in Africa for the year 2100. The worst-case damage scenario totals USD 74.5 million by 2100. However, the model for the year 2065 shows a higher undiscounted value than the present. The finding of positive net impacts from warming is consistent with the predictions of other macro models that show potential gains from warming scenarios. (c) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 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RP Barnett, J, Univ Canterbury, Christchurch 1, New Zealand. AB This paper investigates the problem of scientific uncertainty and the way it impedes planning for climate change and accelerated sea-level rise (CC & ASLR) in Pacific Island Countries (PICs). The paper begins by discussing the problems CC & ASLR poses for PICs, and it explores the limitations of the dominant approach to vulnerability and adaptation. Next, the paper considers the way scientific uncertainty problematizes policies aimed at adaptation to CC & ASLR. It argues that the prevailing approach, which requires anticipation of impacts, is unsuccessful, and the paper proposes a complementary strategy aimed to enhance the resilience of whole island social-ecological systems. Recent developments in the theory and practice of resilience are discussed and then applied to formulate goals for adaptation policy in PICs. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. 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AB Technology transfer requires long-term and wide-ranging investment beyond information sharing and training. Transfer is concerned with adapting technology to given socioeconomic and technical environments but it is also the development of suitable mechanisms within the destination environment. Risk sharing and institutional development are required to achieve sustainable transfer. Micro-hydro technology in Nepal is an example of successful technology transfer over 20 years of in-country adaptation, promotion and training by international and Nepali technical, financial and development institutions. The successes and disappointments of the sector provide useful lessons for technology transfer programs. The paper arises from original research, personal experience of Nepal's micro-hydro sector and a review of associated literature. 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RP McLeman, R, Univ Guelph, Dept Geog, Guelph, ON N1G 2W1, Canada. AB This article presents a conceptual model to investigate population migration as a possible adaptive response to risks associated with climate change. The model reflects established theories of human migration behaviour, and is based upon the concepts of vulnerability, exposure to risk and adaptive capacity, as developed in the climate change research community. The application of the model is illustrated using the case of 1930s migration patterns in rural Eastern Oklahoma, which took place during a period of repeated crop failures due to drought and flooding. 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RP Geertz, C, Inst Adv Study, Einstein Dr, Princeton, NJ 08540 USA. AB I give an overall view of anthropology and of my career within it over the past fifty years, relating them to changes in the world in general during that time. All lessons are implicit, all morals unstated, all conclusions undrawn. 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D, 1983, SPOKEN WORD WORK INT TOLMAN EC, 1958, ESSAYS MOTIVATION LE TRAWEEK S, 1988, BEAMTIMES LIFETIMES TURNER VW, 1957, SCHISM CONTINUITY AF TURNER VW, 1986, ANTHR EXPERIENCE TYLER SA, 1969, COGNITIVE ANTHR READ VOGT EZ, 1955, MODERN HOMESTEADERS VOGT EZ, 1966, PEOPLE RIMROCK STUDY WALLACE AFC, 1970, CULTURE PERSONALITY WEBER M, 1947, THEORY SOCIAL EC ORG WEBER M, 1950, GEN EC HIST WEBER M, 1950, PROTESTANT ETHIC SPI WEBER M, 1965, SOCIOLOGY RELIG WEINER AB, 1976, WOMEN VALUE MEN RENO WHITING BB, 1975, CHILDREN 6 CULTURES WIENER N, 1962, CYBERNETICS CONTROL WOLF ER, 1982, EUROPE PEOPLE HIST WRIGHT R, 1995, COLOR CURTAIN REPORT NR 152 TC 1 J9 ANNU REV ANTHROPOL BP 1 EP 19 PY 2002 VL 31 GA 612BN UT ISI:000179053900002 ER PT J AU Dyson, T TI On development, demography and climate change: The end of the world as we know it? SO POPULATION AND ENVIRONMENT LA English DT Article C1 Univ London London Sch Econ & Polit Sci, Inst Dev Studies, London WC2A 2AE, England. RP Dyson, T, Univ London London Sch Econ & Polit Sci, Inst Dev Studies, Houghton St, London WC2A 2AE, England. AB This paper comments on the issue of global warming and climate change, in an attempt to provide fresh perspective. Essentially, five main arguments are made. First, that the process of modern economic development has been based on the burning of fossil fuels, and that this will continue to apply for the foreseeable future. Second, that in large part due to momentum in economic and demographic processes, it is inevitable that there will be a major rise in atmospheric CO2 during the present century. Third, that available data on global temperatures suggest strongly that the coming warming will be appreciably faster than anything that humanity has experienced during historical times. Moreover, especially in a system that is being forced, the chance of an abrupt change in climate happening must be rated as fair. Fourth, that while it is impossible to attach precise probabilities to different scenarios, the range of plausible unpleasant climate outcomes seems at least as great as the range of more manageable ones. The consequences of future climate change may be considerable; indeed, they could be almost inconceivable-with several negative changes occurring simultaneously and to cumulative adverse effect. There is an urgent need to improve ways of thinking about what could happen. Fifth, the paper maintains that the human response to other difficult 'long' threats-such as that posed by HIV/AIDS-reveals a broadly analogous sequence of social reactions (e.g. denial, avoidance, recrimination) to that which is unfolding with respect to carbon emissions and climate change. Therefore the view expressed here is that major behavioral change to limit world carbon emissions is unlikely in the foreseeable future, and that the broad sway of future events is probably now set to run its course. 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AB Global change has been in the public arena for some time and in the scientific arena for even longer. At the forefront of these public and scientific deliberations are issues of energy, transportation, and industry. However, the potential effects on food and fiber security are likely to be the greatest threat from global change. Fortunately, the human component inherent in agriculture and forestry production systems allows for planning of effective, cost-efficient mitigative and adaptive strategies that will help meet the challenge. CR 1 OFF SCI TECHN POL 1991, COMPREHENSIVE APPROA, P1 NR 2 TC 0 J9 MAR TECHNOL SOC J BP 30 EP 37 PY 1991 PD WIN VL 25 IS 4 GA HG985 UT ISI:A1991HG98500005 ER PT J AU Owuor, B Eriksen, S Mauta, W TI Adapting to climate change in a dryland mountain environment in Kenya SO MOUNTAIN RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT LA English DT Article C1 Kenya Forestry Res Inst, Nairobi, Kenya. Univ Oslo, Dept Sociol & Human Geog, N-0317 Oslo, Norway. RP Owuor, B, Kenya Forestry Res Inst, POB 20412,00200 City Sq, Nairobi, Kenya. AB Global warming is likely to lead to a variety of changes in local climatic conditions, including potential increases in the frequency and intensity of extreme climatic events such as drought, floods, and storms. Present capacity to respond to and manage climatic variability, including extreme events, is an important component of adjustments to climatic changes. In particular, identifying and addressing constraints on local adaptation mechanisms-whether political, economic or social in nature-is critical to developing effective adaptation policies. The drylands of Kenya present great survival challenges to the people living in these areas. The hilltops in the drylands provide favorable climate and resources for adapting to climate change. The present paper examines the role that one particular hilltop, Endau in Kitui District, eastern Kenya, plays in processes of local adaptation to climatic variability and drought. The project presented here investigated how conflict and exclusion from key hilltop resources constrain adaptation among the population groups living around the hilltop, and how these constraints are negotiated, addressed, or even exacerbated through institutional arrangements and development activities. CR BURTON I, 2002, CLIM POLICY, V2, P145 GACHATHL FNM, 1996, BIODIVERSITY AFRICAN, P313 JOUBERT AM, 1997, PROG PHYS GEOG, V21, P51 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 NR 4 TC 0 J9 MT RES DEV BP 310 EP 315 PY 2005 PD NOV VL 25 IS 4 GA 997GB UT ISI:000234232200004 ER PT J AU MALINA, RM TI COMPUTER-APPLICATIONS IN HUMAN BIOLOGY SO AMERICAN JOURNAL OF HUMAN BIOLOGY LA English DT Editorial Material NR 0 TC 0 J9 AMER J HUM BIOL BP U285 EP U285 PY 1992 VL 4 IS 3 GA HV909 UT ISI:A1992HV90900001 ER PT J AU Huq, S Reid, H Konate, M Rahman, A Sokona, Y Crick, F TI Mainstreaming adaptation to climate change in Least Developed Countries (LDCs) SO CLIMATE POLICY LA English DT Article C1 IIED, Climate Change Program, London WC1H 0DD, England. BCAS, Dhaka 1212, Bangladesh. OSS, BP-1080 Tunis, Tunisia. Univ Sheffield, Dept Geog, Sheffield S10 2TN, S Yorkshire, England. RP Huq, S, IIED, Climate Change Program, 3 Endsleigh St, London WC1H 0DD, England. AB The Least Developed Countries (LDCs) are a group of 49 of the world's poorest countries. They have contributed least to the emission of greenhouse gases (GHGs) but they are most vulnerable to the effects of climate change. This is due to their location in some of the most vulnerable regions of the world and their low capacities to adapt to these changes. Adaptation to climate change has become an important policy priority in the international negotiations on climate change in recent years. However, it has yet to become a major policy issue within developing countries, especially the LDCs. This article focuses on two LDCs, namely Bangladesh and Mali, where progress has been made regarding identifying potential adaptation options. For example, Bangladesh already has effective disaster response systems, and strategies to deal with reduced freshwater availability, and Mali has a well-developed programme for providing agro-hydro-meteorological assistance to communities in times of drought. However, much remains to be done in terms of mainstreaming adaptation to climate change within the national policyrnaking processes of these countries. Policymakers need targeting and, to facilitate this, scientific research must be translated into appropriate language and timescales. CR WATSON RT, 1998, REGIONAL IMPACTS CLI, V1, P1 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 *SMRC, 2000, VULN ASS SAARC COAST *UN, 1992, UN FRAM CONV CLIM CH *UN, 2001, MARR ACC *UN, 2001, STAT PROF LDCS *UNCTAD, 2000, LEAST DEV COUNTR 200 *UNCTAD, 2001, 3 UN C LDCS BRUSS 13 *UNCTAD, 2001, FDI LEAST DEV COUNTR ABRAMOVITZ J, 2002, ADAPTING CLIMATE CHA ADGER WN, 2003, PROGR DEV STUDIES, V3, P179 APUULI B, 2000, ENVIRON MONIT ASSESS, V61, P145 DESSAI S, 2002, 5 TYND CTR CLIM CHAN HABIBULLAH M, 1998, VULNERABILITY ADAPTA, P55 HUQ S, 2003, MAINSTREAMING ADAPTA KONATE M, 2001, B AFRICAIN BIORESSOU, V14 KONATE M, 2003, 3 MAL COUNTR CAS STU MAGADZA CHD, 2000, ENVIRON MONIT ASSESS, V61, P193 PIELKE RA, 1998, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V8, P159 RAHMAN A, 2003, 2 BANGL COUNTR CAS S SOKONA Y, 2001, CLIM POLICY, V1, P117 NR 21 TC 0 J9 CLIM POLICY BP 25 EP 43 PY 2004 VL 4 IS 1 GA 892TJ UT ISI:000226672600004 ER PT J AU Droogers, P TI Adaptation to climate change to enhance food security and preserve environmental quality: example for southern Sri Lanka SO AGRICULTURAL WATER MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article C1 FutureWater, NL-6823 DH Arnhem, Netherlands. RP Droogers, P, FutureWater, Eksterstr 7, NL-6823 DH Arnhem, Netherlands. AB Adaptation strategies to climate change have been explored using a linked field-scale basin-scale modeling framework for Walawe basin, Sri Lanka. An integrated approach was followed concentrating on enhancement of food security and preservation of environmental quality. Climate change projections were extracted from the Hadley Climate Center (HadCM3) coupled global circulation model (GCM). Impact and adaptation strategies were evaluated with a coupled modeling framework based on the soil-water-atmosphere-plant (SWAP) field scale model and the water and salinity basin model (WSBM) basin scale model. Three time periods were considered where the 1961-1990 period was used to adjust climate change projections to local conditions and to provide a reference to compare expected changes in the near future (2010-2039) and distant future (2070-2099). The overall impact of climate change on food security and environmental quality appears to be positive as a result of enhanced crop growth due to higher CO2 levels and a small increase in precipitation. However, extremes will be more profound in the future, making adaptation strategies necessary. Results from the modeling framework have been presented in a format accessible to water resources managers and policy makers to enable them to make sound decisions on the required adaptation strategies. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. CR *FAO, 2002, FOOD INS PEOPL LIV H *IPCC WG I, 2001, CLIM CHANG SCI BAS C WATSON RT, 1998, REGIONAL IMPACTS CLI, V1, P1 *IPCC, 2003, INT PAN CLIM CHANG *UNESCO, 2003, WAT PEOPL WAT LIF UN *UNESCO, 2003, WAT PEOPL WAT LIF *WEAP, 2002, WAT EV PLANN SYST ALCARNO J, 1997, A9701 U KASS CTR ENV BOUWER H, 2000, AGR WATER MANAGE, V45, P217 DOORENBOS J, 1979, 33 FAO IRR DROOGERS P, 1999, IRRIG DRAIN, V13, P275 DROOGERS P, 2001, 20 IWMI INT WAT MAN DROOGERS P, 2001, IRRIG DRAIN, V50, P335 DROOGERS P, 2003, FIELD SCALE ADAPTATI DROOGERS P, 2003, IN PRESS CLIMATE CHA DROOGERS P, 2003, WATER FOOD CLIMATE I FEDDES RA, 1978, SIMULATION FIELD WAT GORDON C, 2000, CLIM DYNAM, V16, P147 IMBULANA KAU, 2002, WORLD WAT ASS PROGR, P285 KABAT P, 2002, CLIM CHANG WAT RUL PEREIRA LS, 2002, AGR WATER MANAGE, V57, P175 SHIKLOMANOV IA, 2003, IN PRESS WORLD WAT R STEWART JL, 1997, PRWG151 UT STAT U UT VANDAM JC, 1997, 45 WAG AGR U DLO WIN VANDIEPEN CA, 1989, SOIL USE MANAGE, V5, P16 VOROSMARTY CJ, 2000, SCIENCE, V289, P284 WOLDEGEORGIS T, 1997, INTERNET J AFRICAN S, V1 NR 27 TC 0 J9 AGR WATER MANAGE BP 15 EP 33 PY 2004 PD APR 1 VL 66 IS 1 GA 802LU UT ISI:000220165800002 ER PT J AU Baker, AC Starger, CJ McClanahan, TR Glynn, PW TI Corals' adaptive response to climate change SO NATURE LA English DT Editorial Material C1 Wildlife Conservat Soc, Marine Program, Bronx, NY 10460 USA. Columbia Univ, Ctr Environm Res & Conservat, New York, NY 10027 USA. Columbia Univ, Dept Ecol Evolut & Environm Biol, New York, NY 10027 USA. Univ Miami, Rosenstiel Sch Marine & Atmospher Sci, Miami, FL 33149 USA. RP Baker, AC, Wildlife Conservat Soc, Marine Program, Bronx, NY 10460 USA. CR BAKER AC, 2001, NATURE, V411, P765 BAKER AC, 2003, ANNU REV ECOL EVOL S, V34, P661 BUDDEMEIER RW, 1993, BIOSCIENCE, V43, P320 COLES SL, 2003, ADV MAR BIOL, V46, P183 GLYNN PW, 2001, B MAR SCI, V69, P79 HUGHES TP, 2003, SCIENCE, V301, P929 LAJEUNESSE TC, 2002, MAR BIOL, V141, P387 LITTLE AF, 2004, SCIENCE, V304, P1492 ROWAN R, 1997, NATURE, V388, P265 SHEPPARD CRC, 2003, NATURE, V425, P294 TOLLER WW, 2001, BIOL BULL, V201, P360 WARE JR, 1996, ECOL MODEL, V84, P199 WILKINSON CR, 2002, STATUS CORAL REEFS W NR 13 TC 3 J9 NATURE BP 741 EP 741 PY 2004 PD AUG 12 VL 430 IS 7001 GA 845HS UT ISI:000223233600030 ER PT J AU Hawkes, P Surendran, S Richardson, D TI Use of UKCIP02 climate-change scenarios in flood and coastal defence SO JOURNAL OF THE CHARTERED INSTITUTION OF WATER AND ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article C1 HR Wallingford Ltd, Wallingford, Oxon, England. Environm Agcy, Bristol, Avon, England. RP Hawkes, P, HR Wallingford Ltd, Wallingford, Oxon, England. AB Understanding the uncertainties and risks from climate change is necessary for managing and adapting to those risks. Climate-change scenarios provide a starting point for assessing climate-change vulnerability, impact and adaptation. In April 2002, the UK Climate Impacts Programme released new future climate scenarios and was based on modelling at the Hadley Centre, which included temperature, soil moisture, rainfall, runoff, sea-level rise and wind speed. These data provide a consistent source of information for use in UK climate-change impact studies. This paper (a) summarises some of the results from this programme, (b) explores their implications, and (c) recommends how these results could be applied in UK flood and coastal defence. The opinions of about twenty selected individuals, who were involved in flood and coastal defence, were collated to assess current practice in the use of climate-change information, requirements of climate-change scenarios, and comparison of the content of UKCIP02 with those requirements. CR *DEFRA ENV AG, 2002, FD2302TR1 DEFR FLOOD *ENV AG DEFR, 2002, W5B029PR ENV AG *ENV AG DEFR, 2002, W5B029TR ENV AG *ENV AG, 2000, 21 ENV AG *MAFF, 1999, PB4650 MAFF *MAFF, 2000, PB4907 MAFF, V4 *MAFF, 2001, FLOOD COAST DEF PROJ, V1 *UKCIP ENV AG, 2003, CLIM AD RISK UNC DEC *UN KINGD CLIM IMP, 2002, UKCIP02 U E ANGL SCH FLATHER RA, 2001, 140 PROUDM OC LAB RICHARDSON D, 2002, P I CIVIL ENG-CIV EN, V150, P22 SUTHERLAND JA, 2002, SR590 WALLINGFORD HR, 1980, 924 EX NR 13 TC 0 J9 J CHART INST WATER ENV MANAGE BP 214 EP 219 PY 2003 PD NOV VL 17 IS 4 GA 751HX UT ISI:000187060700004 ER PT J AU Cantlon, JE Koenig, HE TI Sustainable ecological economies SO ECOLOGICAL ECONOMICS LA English DT Article C1 Michigan State Univ, Dept Bot & Plant Pathol, E Lansing, MI 48824 USA. Michigan State Univ, Dept Elect Engn, E Lansing, MI 48824 USA. RP Cantlon, JE, Michigan State Univ, Dept Bot & Plant Pathol, E Lansing, MI 48824 USA. AB A brief accounting is presented of the evolution of natural ecosystems and human cultures including industrialization and its ecologically-significant interactions with natural abiotic and biotic processes of the earth. These accounts show, among other things, that excess resource harvest rates and material releases into the natural environment have been ecological risks of growing scope and scale throughout the history of political economies. The growing ecological risks of industrialization are attributed to disparities between the rates and directions of evolution in the ecological features of process and structure of corporate and political economies relative to the rates and directions of evolution in their cultural institutions of control. Many social and political organizations are now calling for adaptations toward sustainable industrialization by promoting evolution in the cultural institutions of control through research, education, ethics, politics and government. What is required are on-line institutional processes for effectively translating emerging ecological risk assessments into economic incentives for feasible adaptations throughout the systems. Institutionalization of such on-line adaptive processes requires broad moral-ethical enlightenment and social-political commitment to make the emerging scientific, technological and economic dimensions productive (Faber et al., 1996). This paper presents on-line strategies of ecological risk assessment and control which are believed to be superior to alternatives that require a prior consensus on economic valuations of natural resource stocks, natural processes and environmental damages; and incentives have advantages over prescriptive regulations. When viewed in their greater economic context, the proposed strategies are formulated as coordinated institutions of on-line ecological and fiscal control processes on what is here defined as the ecological economies of corporate and political economies. The objective of the proposed control strategies is to pursue trajectories of joint ecological and cultural evolution toward systems that are ecologically and culturally both satisfying and sustainable. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. CR *COUNC ENV QUAL, 1995, ENV QUAL *WORLD RES I, 1994, WORLD RES 1994 95 GU AUSUBEL JH, 1996, AM SCI, V84, P166 BODMER WF, 1975, GENETICS EVOLUTION M CHAPIN FS, 1997, SCIENCE, V277, P500 COSTANZA R, 1991, ECOLOGICAL EC SCI MA, P1 COSTANZA R, 1997, NATURE, V387, P253 DITZ D, 1995, GREEN LEDGERS CASE S FABER M, 1996, ECOLOGICAL EC CONCEP FABER M, 1997, EVOLUTION TIME PRODU FARRELL A, 1996, IEEE TECHNOL SOC MAG, V15, P11 FIROR J, 1990, CHANGING ATMOSPHERE FROSCH RA, 1992, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V89, P800 GODWIN H, 1965, ESSAYS CROP EVOLUTIO, P1 GRUBER A, 1996, P AM ACAD ARTS SCI, V125, P19 HAMMOND A, 1995, ENV INDICATORS SYSTE HARLAN JR, 1995, LIVING FIELDS OUR AG HEATON GR, 1991, TRANSFORMING TECHNOL HINTERBERGER F, 1997, ECOL ECON, V23, P1 HOUGHTON RA, 1993, WORLD FORESTS FUTURE, P21 JELINSKI LW, 1992, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V89, P793 JOFFE JS, 1949, PEDOLOGY KAHN P, 1997, SCIENCE, V277, P176 KAISER J, 1997, SCIENCE, V277, P466 KATES RW, 1996, P AM ACAD ARTS SCI, V125, P43 KOENIG H, 1999, IN PRESS J IND ECOL KOENIG HE, 1998, IEEE T SYST MAN CY C, V28, P16 LOVELOCK J, 1982, GAIA NEW LOOK LIFE E LYNCH C, 1996, AMICUS J, V18, P20 MASSARRAT M, 1997, ECOL ECON, V22, P29 MATSON PA, 1997, SCIENCE, V277, P504 ODUM HT, 1960, ECOLOGY, V41, P395 OROURKE D, 1996, INT J ENVIRON POLLUT, V6, P89 REPETTO R, 1989, WASTING ASSETS NATUR ROUSH W, 1997, SCIENCE, V276, P1029 SAHLINS M, 1974, STONE AGE EC SCHIPPER L, 1996, DAEDALUS, V125, P113 VERNADSKY VI, 1926, BIOSPHERE VITOUSEK PM, 1997, SCIENCE, V277, P494 WATSON RT, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, V1, P1 WEISS P, 1996, SCIENCE, V272, P1784 WOODWELL GM, 1990, EARTH TRANSITION PAT NR 42 TC 1 J9 ECOL ECON BP 107 EP 121 PY 1999 PD OCT VL 31 IS 1 GA 256WT UT ISI:000083750000010 ER PT J AU You, SC TI Agricultural adaptation to climate change in China SO JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES-CHINA LA English DT Article C1 Tokyo Inst Technol, Tokyo 152, Japan. RP You, SC, Tokyo Inst Technol, Tokyo 152, Japan. AB This paper presents the study on agriculture adaptation to climate change by adopting the assumed land use change strategy to resist the water shortage and to build the capacity to adapt the expected climate change in the northern China. The cost-benefit analysis result shows that assumed land use change from high water consuming rice cultivation to other crops is very effective. Over billions m(3) of water can be saved. Potential conflicts between different social interest groups, different regions, demand and supply, and present and future interests have been analyzed for to form a policy to implement the adaptation strategy. Trade, usually taken as one of adaptation strategies, was suggested as a policy option for to support land use change, which not only meets the consumption demand, but also, in terms of resources, imports water resources. Key words: agriculture; adaptation; climate change; land use change. CR *ED COMM CHIN AGR, 1999, AGR YB 1980 1998 *HYDR BUR MIN WAT, 1987, ASS CHIN WAT RES WATSON RT, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, V1, P1 WATSON RT, 1998, REGIONAL IMPACTS CLI, V1, P1 *STAT STAT BUR, 1999, CHIN RUR STAT YB 198 *STAT STAT BUR, 1999, STAT YB 1990 1998 BAYASGALAN S, 1996, ADAPTING CLIMATE CHA, P164 BURTON I, 1997, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V36, P185 CARTER TR, 1996, ADAPTING CLIMATE CHA, P107 CHEN YM, 1995, CROP WATER REQUIREME, P73 DOWNING TE, 1997, MITIGATION ADAPTATIO, V2, P19 EASTERLING WE, 1993, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V24, P23 EASTERLING WE, 1996, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V80, P1 ELSHAER MH, 1996, ADAPTING CLIMATE CHA, P109 FISCHER G, 1994, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V4, P7 JODHA NS, 1984, GREENHOUSE WARMING A, P147 LIN ED, 1996, WATER AIR SOIL POLLU MAGALHAES AR, 1996, ADAPTING CLIMATE CHA, P44 MATARIRA CH, 1996, ADAPTING CLIMATE CHA, P129 MIZINA SV, 1998, ADAPTING CLIMATE CHA, P149 PARRY ML, 1998, NATURE, V395, P741 ROSENBERG NJ, 1992, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V21, P385 ROSENZWEIG C, 1994, NATURE, V367, P133 SEINO H, 1998, GLOBAL WARMING POTEN, P101 SEINO H, 1999, J AGR METEOROL, V51, P131 SMIT B, 1996, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V33, P7 TAO Z, 1993, CLIMATE BIOSPHERE IN TOL RSJ, 1998, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V8, P109 TOMAN MA, 1996, ADAPTING CLIMATE CHA, P5 WANG JH, 1996, WATER AIR SOIL POLL, V92, P75 YOHE GW, 1997, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V37, P243 ZHANG Y, 1997, SIMULATION GLOBAL CL NR 32 TC 0 J9 J ENVIRON SCI-CHINA BP 192 EP 197 PY 2001 PD APR VL 13 IS 2 GA 537VM UT ISI:000174780400013 ER PT J AU Obasi, GOP TI Embracing sustainability science: The challenges for Africa SO ENVIRONMENT LA English DT Article C1 World Meteorol Org, CH-1211 Geneva 2, Switzerland. RP Obasi, GOP, World Meteorol Org, 7 Bis,Ave Paix,Case Postale 2300, CH-1211 Geneva 2, Switzerland. CR *INT PAN CLIM CHAN, 2001, CLIM CHANG 2001 SCI MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 *ORG AFR U, 2001, NEW AFR IN *UN CONV COMB DES, 1994, AAC24127 UN *UN POP FUND, 1998, STAT WORLD POP 1998 *UN, 2001, ROL UN SUPP EFF AFR *WHO, 1998, WORLD HEALTH FORUM, V18, P248 *WORLD BANK, 1995, SER AFR TECHN DEP *WORLD COMM ENV DE, 1987, OUR COMM FUT CORNFORD SG, 2001, WMO B, V50, P284 JALLOW BP, 1999, NATL ASSESSMENT RESU, P129 KATES RW, 2001, SCIENCE, V292, P641 LOEVINSOHN ME, 1994, LANCET, V343, P714 OBASI GOP, 1999, 5 GEN C AFR AC SCI H OBASI GOP, 2001, AFR REG WORKSH SUST NR 15 TC 0 J9 ENVIRONMENT BP 8 EP 19 PY 2002 PD MAY VL 44 IS 4 GA 543GG UT ISI:000175092600003 ER PT J AU Fraser, EDG Mabee, W Slaymaker, O TI Mutual vulnerability, mutual dependence - The reflexive relation between human society and the environment. SO GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS LA English DT Article C1 Univ British Columbia, Liu Inst Global Issues, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z2, Canada. RP Fraser, EDG, Univ British Columbia, Liu Inst Global Issues, 6476 NW Marine Dr, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z2, Canada. AB Human society affects environmental change but is also vulnerable to these changes. This relation has generated a number of theories that either focus on how we affect the environment or how the environment affects us. Few theories explicitly focus on the interaction. This paper will establish the range of data required to give an assessment of how likely an ecosystem is to change (which we label environmental sensitivity) and the ability of communities to adapt (social resilience). These findings allow us to generate a new method for assessing the reflexive relation between society and the environment. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. 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RP MENDELSOHN, R, YALE UNIV, SCH FORESTRY & ENVIRONM STUDIES, NEW HAVEN, CT 06511 USA. AB This paper provides a framework for integrated assessment of the impacts of climate change on natural resources and sets the stage for papers that follow in this volume. Integrated assessments are used to organize large quantities of technical information bearing on complex issues (environmental and others) in ways that facilitate application of the information in decision making and policy setting. Any integrated assessment must be based on the best available information. For that reason this paper includes a 'primer' on the current (and presumably best available) understanding of the science underlying climatic change. The remainder of the paper describes the component parts of one possible framework for integrated assessment. 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Indiana Univ, Bloomington, IN 47405 USA. RP Li, Q, Penn State Univ, University Pk, PA 16802 USA. AB In a relatively small but growing body of literature in political science and environmental studies, scholars debate the effect of democracy on environmental degradation. Some theorists claim that democracy reduces environmental degradation. Others argue that democracy may not reduce environmental degradation or may even harm the environment. Empirical evidence thus far has been limited and conflicting. This article seeks to address the democracy-environment debate. We focus on the effect of political regime type on human activities that directly damage the environment. Our discussion of the theoretical literature identifies different causal mechanisms through which democracy could affect environmental degradation. The empirical analysis focuses on the net effect of these competing mechanisms. We examine statistically the effect of democracy on five aspects of human-induced environmental degradation-carbon dioxide emissions, nitrogen dioxide emissions, deforestation, land degradation, and organic pollution in water. We find that democracy reduces all five types of environmental degradation. While the substantive effect of democracy is considerable, it varies in size across different types of environmental degradation. We also find nonmonotonic effects of democracy that vary across the environmental indicators. 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RP Vogel, C, Univ Witwatersrand, Sch Geog Archaeol & Environm Studies, P Bag 3, ZA-2050 Johannesburg, South Africa. NR 0 TC 0 J9 GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANGE BP 235 EP 236 PY 2006 PD AUG VL 16 IS 3 GA 073OJ UT ISI:000239752200001 ER PT J AU Ford, JD Smit, B Wandel, J MacDonald, J TI Vulnerability to climate change in Igloolik, Nunavut: what we can learn from the past and present SO POLAR RECORD LA English DT Article C1 Univ Guelph, Dept Geog, Guelph, ON N1G 2W1, Canada. Igloolik Res Ctr, Igloolik, NU X0A 0L0, Canada. RP Ford, JD, Univ Guelph, Dept Geog, Guelph, ON N1G 2W1, Canada. AB Significant and rapid climate change is predicted for Arctic regions. These changes are expected to have implications for indigenous communities. This paper argues that the starting point to understand how future climate change may affect communities is analysis of past and present experience of, and response to, climate variability and change. Using a vulnerability approach, the paper provides an historical account of changing vulnerability to climate-related risks among Inuit in Igloolik, Nunavut. The research demonstrates that Inuit in Igloolik have been highly adaptable in the face of climatic stresses. This adaptability has historically been facilitated by traditional Inuit knowledge, resource use flexibility and diversity, group mobility, and strong social networks. However, societal changes, and more recently biophysical changes, have increased the susceptibility of people to climatic risks and have undermined certain aspects of adaptive capacity. The research indicates that the implications of future climate change will be influenced by the interaction between biophysical and societal changes, will vary over time in response to forces internal and external to the community, and will be differentiated among social groups. 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RP Smit, B, Univ Guelph, Dept Geog, Guelph, ON N1G 2W1, Canada. AB This paper reviews the concept of adaptation of human communities to global changes, especially climate change, in the context of adaptive capacity and vulnerability. It focuses on scholarship that contributes to practical implementation of adaptations at the community scale. In numerous social science fields, adaptations are considered as responses to risks associated with the interaction of environmental hazards and human vulnerability or adaptive capacity. In the climate change field, adaptation analyses have been undertaken for several distinct purposes. Impact assessments assume adaptations to estimate damages to longer term climate scenarios with and without adjustments. Evaluations of specified adaptation options aim to identify preferred measures. Vulnerability indices seek to provide relative vulnerability scores for countries, regions or communities. The main purpose of participatory vulnerability assessments is to identify adaptation strategies that are feasible and practical in communities. The distinctive features of adaptation analyses with this purpose are outlined, and common elements of this approach are described. Practical adaptation initiatives tend to focus on risks that are already problematic, climate is considered together with other environmental and social stresses, and adaptations are mostly integrated or mainstreamed into other resource management, disaster preparedness and sustainable development programs. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 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RP Apuuli, B, Meteorol Dept, POB 7025, Kampala, Uganda. AB Many developing countries, especially in Africa, contribute only very small amounts to the world total of greenhouse gas emissions. For them, the reduction of such emissions is not a priority, and the more important issue is to find ways to reduce their vulnerability to the projected climate change which is being imposed upon them largely as a result of emissions from developed countries. This priority does not accord with the ultimate objective of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, which is to achieve stabilization of greenhouse gas emissions. This paper reports upon studies in Uganda designed to help in the development of a national adaptation strategy, and addresses the need to reconcile such a strategy with the global priority accorded to mitigation and with national economic development priorities. Some features of a national climate change adaptation strategy are identified and questions are raised about the need for an international regime to facilitate and support adaptation. CR *DEP MET, 1997, WORKSH P DEV AD STRA *INT PAN CLIM CHAN, 1998, REG IMP CLIM CHANG A *REP UG MIN AGR AN, 1994, REP INQ FAM N *REP UG MIN NAT RE, 1994, SOURC 1994 SOURC SIN *US EPA, 1994, INV US GREENH GAS EM BENIOFF R, 1997, NATL CLIMATE CHANGE MADRAA E, 1997, WORKSH REP DEV AD ST OGALLO LJ, 1988, J CLIMATOL, V8, P31 OGALLO LJ, 1988, J METEOROL SOC JPN, V66, P807 NR 9 TC 2 J9 ENVIRON MONIT ASSESS BP 145 EP 159 PY 2000 PD MAR VL 61 IS 1 GA 300UB UT ISI:000086270100012 ER PT J AU PARK, TK TI EARLY TRENDS TOWARD CLASS STRATIFICATION - CHAOS, COMMON PROPERTY, AND FLOOD RECESSION AGRICULTURE SO AMERICAN ANTHROPOLOGIST LA English DT Article RP PARK, TK, UNIV ARIZONA,DEPT ANTHROPOL,TUCSON,AZ 85721. AB In societies based on flood recession agriculture in arid regions, economic stratification, institutionalized ways of sloughing off population, and common property are particularly valuable risk management options. Using ethnographic data from the Senegal River Basin and historical data from the Nile Valley, I argue that tendencies toward stratification were inherent in riverine societies practicing flood recession agriculture. Thus, early stratification occurred long before population pressure reached significant levels and well before regional trade, extensive storage capacity, or elaborate water-management infrastructure became economically significant. The article is intended to help explain why a number of civilizations developed in arid riverine contexts. 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Univ Georgia, Dept Biol & Agr Engn, Griffin, GA 30223 USA. RP Alexandrov, VA, Natl Inst Meteorol & Hydrol, BG-1784 Sofia, Bulgaria. AB During the recent decade, the problem of climate variability and change, due to natural processes as well as factors of anthropogenetic origin, has come to the forefront, of scientific problems. The objective of this study was to investigate climate variability in Bulgaria during the 20th century and to determine the overall impact on agriculture. There was no significant change in the mean annual air temperature. In general, there was a decrease in total precipitation amount during the warm-half of the year, starting at the end of the 1970s. Statistical multiple regression models, describing the relationship between crop yield, precipitation, and air temperature were also developed. Several transient climate change scenarios, using global climate model (GCM) outputs, were created. The Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) Version 3.5 was used to assess the influence of projected climate change on grain yield of maize and winter wheat in Bulgaria. Under a current level of CO2 (330 ppm), the GCM scenarios projected a decrease in yield of winter wheat and especially maize, caused by a shorter crop growing season due to higher temperatures and a precipitation deficit. When the direct effects of CO2 were included in the study, all GCM scenarios resulted in an increase in winter wheat yield. Adaptation measures to mitigate the potential impact of climate change on maize crop production in Bulgaria included possible changes in sowing date and hybrid selection. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. CR *ANL, 1994, GUID VULN AD ASS *IPCC DDC, 1999, DAT INF SUPPL IPCC D ADAMS RM, 1998, CLIMATE RES, V11, P19 ADAMS RM, 1999, AGR GLOBAL CLIMATE C ALEXANDROV VA, 1999, P INT S MOD CROPP SY, P131 ALEXANDROV VA, 1997, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V36, P135 CARTER TR, 1994, IPCC TECHNICAL GUIDE, P52 DAVIES A, 1998, ANN APPL BIOL, V133, P135 DOWNING TE, 1996, NATO ASI SERIES, V1 EASTERLING WE, 1996, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V80, P1 EASTERLING WE, 1996, CLIMATE RES, V6, P263 ELMAAYAR M, 1997, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V85, P193 FRECKLETON RP, 1999, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V93, P39 GADGIL S, 1999, CURR SCI INDIA, V76, P557 GROTCH SL, 1991, J CLIMATE, V4, P286 HARRISON P, 1995, CLIMATE CHANGE AGR E HERSHKOVICH E, 1982, AGROCLIMATIC ATLAS B HOUGHTON J, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995 HULME M, 1999, NATURE, V397, P688 KAUFMANN RK, 1997, AM J AGR ECON, V79, P178 LAL M, 1999, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V93, P53 PEIRIS DR, 1996, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V79, P271 RITCHIE JT, 1998, UNDERSTANDING OPTION, P79 ROSENZWEIG C, 1995, CLIMATE CHANGE AGR A, V59 SLAVOV N, 1985, CROP PHYSL, V11, P65 SMITH JB, 1996, ADAPTING CLIMATE CHA SMITH JB, 1997, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V7, P251 THORNTON PK, 1994, AGRON J, V86, P860 TSUJI G, 1994, DSSAT VERSION 3, V1 TSUJI G, 1998, UNDERSTANDING OPTION WATSON RT, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, V1, P1 WOLF J, 1995, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V29, P299 NR 32 TC 6 J9 AGR FOREST METEOROL BP 315 EP 327 PY 2000 PD SEP 15 VL 104 IS 4 GA 354CF UT ISI:000089311700005 ER PT J AU Barnett, J TI Security and climate change SO GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS LA English DT Article C1 Univ Melbourne, Sch Anthropol Geog & Environm Studies, Melbourne, Vic 3010, Australia. RP Barnett, J, Univ Melbourne, Sch Anthropol Geog & Environm Studies, Melbourne, Vic 3010, Australia. AB Despite it being the most studied and arguably most profound of global environmental change problems, there is relatively little research that explores climate change as a security issue. This paper systematically explores the range of possible connections between climate change and security, including national security considerations, human security concerns, military roles, and a discussion of the widely held assumption that climate change may trigger violent conflict. The paper explains the ways in which climate change is a security issue. It includes in its discussion issues to do with both mitigation and adaptation of climate change. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science. Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *COMM AUSTR, 1997, AUSTR 2 NAT REP UN F *DOD, 2000, US DEP DEF CLIM CHAN MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 *REP MARSH ISL, 2000, IN COMM UN FRAM CONV *UNDP, 1994, HUM DEV REP 1994 *UNDP, 1998, HUM DEV REP 1998 *UNDP, 1999, PAC ISL HUM DEV REP *WORLD BANK, 2000, CIT SEA STORMS MAN C *WORLD BANK, 2000, WORLD DEV REP 1999 2 BAECHLER G, 1999, ECOLOGY POLITICS VIO, P76 BAECHLER G, 1999, ENV CHANGE SECURITY, P107 BAECHLER G, 1999, VIOLENCE ENV DISCRIM BARNETT J, 2000, REV INT STUD, V26, P271 BARNETT J, 2001, 7 U E ANGL BARNETT J, 2001, ISSUE ADVERSE EFFECT BARNETT J, 2001, MEANING ENV SECURITY BARNETT J, 2001, PACIFICA REV, V13, P157 BARNETT J, 2002, BIENN C AS PAC CTR S BERNSTEIN PM, 1999, ENERGY J, P221 BOYCE JK, 1999, ECOL ECON, V29, P127 BROCK L, 1997, CONFLICT ENV, P17 BROWN L, 1977, 14 WORLDW BROWN L, 1994, FULL HOUSE REASSESSI BROWN N, 1989, SURVIVAL, V31, P519 CHOSSUDOVSKY M, 1998, GLOBALISATION POVERT CLINTON W, 1996, US NATL SECURITY STR COLLIER P, 2000, EC CAUSES CIVIL CONF DALBY S, 1992, PROG HUM GEOG, V16, P503 DALBY S, 1994, GREEN SECURITY MILIT, P25 DALBY S, 1996, ECUMENE, V3, P471 DESOYSA I, 2000, GREED GRIEVANCE EC A, P113 DESOYSA I, 2001, 200142 WORLD I DEV E DEUDNEY D, 1991, B ATOM SCI, V47, P23 DOWER N, 1995, ESSAYS PEACE PARADIG, P18 ECKSTEIN H, 1975, PATTERNS AUTHORITY S EDWARDS MJ, 1996, PACIFICA REV, V8, P63 EDWARDS MJ, 1999, AUST GEOGR, V30, P311 EHRLICH PR, 1991, GEORGIA REV, V45, P223 ESTY DC, 1999, ENV CHANGE SECURITY, V5, P49 FALCOM L, 2001, EW CTR SEN POL SEM A FALK R, 1971, ENDANGERED PLANET PR FRASER G, 2000, EARTH TIMES 1115 GIZEWSKI P, 1998, ECOVIOLENCE LINKS EN, P147 GLEDITSCH NP, 1998, J PEACE RES, V35, P381 GLEDITSCH NP, 2001, ENV CONFLICT, P251 GLEICK PH, 1992, CONFRONTING CLIMATE, P127 GOLDSTONE J, 2001, ENV CONFLICT, P84 HARTMANN B, 2001, VIOLENT ENV, P39 HAUGE W, 2001, ENV CONFLICT, P36 HOEGHGULDBERG O, 2000, PACIFIC PERIL BIOL E HOLTHUS P, 1992, VULNERABILITY ASSESS HOMERDIXON T, ECOVIOLENCE LINKS EN HOMERDIXON T, 1996, ENV SECURITY VIOLENT HOMERDIXON T, 1999, ENV SCARCITY VIOLENC HOMERDIXON TF, 1991, INT SECURITY, V16, P76 HOWARD P, 1998, ECOVIOLENCE LINKS EN, P19 KAPLAN RD, 1994, ATLANTIC MONTHLY FEB, V273, P44 KLOTZLI S, 1994, 11 ENCOP CTR SEC POL LIPSCHUTZ RD, 1990, B PEACE PROPOSALS, V21, P121 LONERGAN S, 1999, AVISO B MACKELLAR FL, 1998, HUMAN CHOICE CLIMATE, V1, P89 MATHEWS JT, 1989, FOREIGN AFF, V68, P162 MATTHEW R, 2001, CANADIAN J POLITICAL, V1, P48 MURDIYARSO D, 2000, ENVIRON MONIT ASSESS, V61, P123 MYERS N, 1994, ULTIMATE SECURITY EN NICHOLLS RJ, 1999, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V9, PS69 NURSE L, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 PAGE E, 2000, RECIEL, V9, P33 PARRY ML, 1999, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V9, PS51 PEARCE F, 2000, NEW SCI, V165, P44 PERCIVAL V, 2001, ENV CONFLICT, P13 RAHMAN A, 1999, ECOLOGY POLITICS VIO, P181 RAPKIN DP, 1986, COOPERATION CONFLICT, V21, P99 ROWLANDS I, 1991, WASH QUART, V14, P99 SANCHEZ PA, 2000, AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON, V82, P371 SHAW B, 1996, ENV CHANGE SECURITY, V2, P39 SINGER JD, 1972, WORLD POLIT, V24, P243 SMIL V, 1997, SAIS REV, V17, P107 SOROOS M, 1997, ENDANGERED ATMOSPHER SWAIN A, 1993, SECUR DIALOGUE, V24, P429 SWAIN A, 1996, ENV TRAP GANGES RIVE SWART RJ, 1996, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V6, P187 TORRAS M, 1998, ECOL ECON, V25, P147 VANIRELAND E, 1996, 410200006 DUTCH NAT WALKER R, 1993, INSIDE OUTSIDE INT R WALLENSTEEN P, 1997, J PEACE RES, V34, P339 WATSON R, 2000, CHAIR INT PAN CLIM C WESTING AH, 1989, B PEACE PROPOSALS, V20, P129 WILKIE D, 1999, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V9, P323 WILSON TW, 1983, WORLD CLIMATE CHANGE, P71 WOLF AT, 1999, ENV CHANGE ADAPTATIO, P251 NR 91 TC 2 J9 GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANGE BP 7 EP 17 PY 2003 PD APR VL 13 IS 1 GA 679ZD UT ISI:000182951100002 ER PT J AU Allen, KM TI Community-based disaster preparedness and climate adaptation: local capacity-building in the Philippines SO DISASTERS LA English DT Article C1 Social Res Associates, Leicester LE1 6TP, Leics, England. RP Allen, KM, Social Res Associates, 12 Princess Rd W, Leicester LE1 6TP, Leics, England. AB Community-based disaster preparedness (CBDP) approaches are increasingly important elements of vulnerability reduction and disaster management strategies. They are associated with a policy trend that values the knowledge and capacities of local people and builds on local resources, including social capital. CBDP may be instrumental not only in formulating local coping and adaptation strategies, but also in situating them within wider development planning and debates. In theory, local people can be mobilised to resist unsustainable (vulnerability increasing) forms of development or livelihood practices and to raise local concerns more effectively with political representatives. This paper focuses on the potential of CBDP initiatives to alleviate vulnerability in the context of climate change, and their limitations. It presents evidence from the Philippines that, in the limited forms in which they are currently employed, CBDP initiatives have the potential both to empower and disempower, and warns against treating CBDP as a panacea to disaster management problems. CR *CARE BANGL, 2005, CAN WE DRINK SAL WAT *IDRM INT, 2002, CAMB RED CROSS COMM *RED CROSS RED CRE, 2005, PREP DIS REL CLIM CH ADGER WN, 2000, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V90, P738 ALEXANDER D, 1997, DISASTERS, V21, P284 ALLEN K, 2003, NATURAL DISASTERS DE, P170 ALLEN K, 2004, WORLD DISASTERS REPO, P101 BANKOFF G, 2001, DISASTERS, V25, P19 BANKOFF G, 2004, ANN AM GEOGRAPHY BAUMANN P, 2001, 68 ODI BENSON C, 2001, DISASTERS, V25, P199 BHATT MR, 1998, UNDERSTANDING VULNER, P68 BLAIKIE PM, 1994, RISK NATURAL HAZARDS, V1, P1 BOYCE JK, 2000, DISASTERS, V24, P254 BRYANT C, 1984, MANAGING RURAL DEV S BUCKLOW I, 2000, MATER WORLD, V8, P14 CERNEA M, 1991, PUTTING PEOPLE 1 SOC CHRISTIE F, 2000, AFRICA ISSUES MOZAMB CONSTANTINODAVI.K, 1992, MAKING DIFFERENCE NG, P137 DAVIS I, 2004, MAPPING VULNERABILIT DELICAWILLISON Z, 2004, MAPPING VULNERABILIT, P145 DESAI V, 2002, COMPANION DEV STUDIE, P117 DEVEREUX S, 2001, DEV POLICY REV, V19, P507 DYNES RR, 1998, WHAT IS DISASTER, P109 EADE D, 1997, CAPACITY BUILDING AP EVANS P, 1996, WORLD DEV, V24, P6 FALK I, 2000, SOCIOL RURALIS, V40, P87 GILBERT A, 1984, WORLD DEV, V12, P8 GOODMAN A, 2000, CLIN CORNERSTONE, V3, P25 HARRISS J, 1997, J INT DEV, V9, P919 HEIJMANS A, 2004, MAPPING VULNERABILIT, P115 HEWITT K, 1983, INTERPRETATIONS CALA HOWELL P, 2003, 6 BEN HAZ RES CTR JALALI R, 2002, DISASTERS, V26, P120 JOHNSTON BF, 1982, REDESIGNING RURAL DE KAUFMAN M, 1997, COMMUNITY POWER GRAS LAVELL A, 1994, DISASTERS DEV ENV, P49 LEONARD DK, 1982, I RURAL DEV POOR LISTER S, 2003, DEV POLICY REV, V21, P93 LUNA EM, 2000, NGO NATURAL DISASTER LUNA EM, 2004, INT C CHALL COMPL CO MARSH G, 2001, AUSTR J EMERGENCY MA, V16, P5 MASING L, 1999, NATURAL DISASTER MAN, P201 MCILWAINE C, 1998, PROG HUM GEOG, V22, P415 MIDGLEY J, 1986, COMMUNITY PARTICIPAT, P13 MOHAN G, 2000, THIRD WORLD Q, V21, P247 MORRIS A, 2003, NATURAL DISASTER DEV, P157 OAKLEY P, 1991, PROJECTS PEOPLE PRAC OSTROM E, 1990, GOVERNING COMMON EVO PATON D, 2001, AUSTR J EMERGENCY MA, V16, P47 PELLING M, 2002, INT DEV PLAN REV, V24, P59 ROCHA JL, 2001, DISASTERS, V25, P240 SIDEL JT, 1999, CAPITAL COERCION CRI SKERCHLY A, 2001, AUSTR J EMERGENCY MA, V16, P23 TOBIN GA, 1999, ENV HAZARDS, V1, P13 TOBIN GA, 2002, DISASTERS, V26, P28 UPHOFF N, 1991, PUTTING PEOPLE FIRST, P359 UPHOFF N, 1992, LEARNING GAL OYA POS WARNER J, 2003, NATURAL DISASTERS DE, P185 WATTS M, 1983, INTERPRETATIONS CALA, P231 WINCHESTER P, 1992, POWER CHOICE VULNERA WINCHESTER P, 2000, DISASTERS, V24, P18 NR 62 TC 0 J9 DISASTERS BP 81 EP 101 PY 2006 PD MAR VL 30 IS 1 GA 017LA UT ISI:000235693900007 ER PT J AU Metzger, MJ Rounsevell, MDA Acosta-Michlik, L Leemans, R Schrotere, D TI The vulnerability of ecosystem services to land use change SO AGRICULTURE ECOSYSTEMS & ENVIRONMENT LA English DT Article C1 Wageningen Univ, Dept Plant Sci, Plant Prod Syst Grp, NL-6700 AK Wageningen, Netherlands. Univ Catholique Louvain, Dept Geog, B-1348 Louvain, Belgium. Wageningen Univ, Dept Environm Sci, Environm Sci Anal Grp, NL-6700 AA Wageningen, Netherlands. Harvard Univ, Sci Environm & Dev Grp, Ctr Int Dev, Kennedy Sch Govt, Cambridge, MA 02138 USA. RP Metzger, MJ, Wageningen Univ, Dept Plant Sci, Plant Prod Syst Grp, POB 430, NL-6700 AK Wageningen, Netherlands. AB Terrestrial ecosystems provide a number of vital services for people and society, such as biodiversity, food. fibre, water resources, carbon sequestration, and recreation. The future capability of ecosystems to provide these services is determined by changes in socio-economic characteristics, land use, biodiversity, atmospheric composition and climate. Most published impact assessments do not address the vulnerability of the human-environment system under such environmental change. They cannot answer important multidisciplinary policy relevant questions Such as: which are the main regions or sectors that are vulnerable to global change? How do the vulnerabilities of two regions compare? Which scenario is the least, or most, harmful for a given region or sector? The ATEAM project (Advanced Terrestrial Ecosystem Analysis and Modelling) uses a new approach to ecosystem assessment by integrating the potential impacts in a vulnerability assessment, which can help answer multidisciplinary questions, such as those listed above. This paper presents the vulnerability assessment of the ATEAM land use scenarios. The 14 land use types, discussed in detail by Rounsevell et al. (this volume), can be related to a range of ecosystem services. For instance, forest area is associated with wood production and designated land with outdoor recreation. Directly applying the vulnerability methodology to the land use change scenarios helps in understanding land use change impacts across the European environment. Scatter plots summarising impacts per principal European Environmental Zone (EnZ) help in interpreting how the impacts of the scenarios differ between ecosystem services and the European environments. While there is considerable heterogeneity in both the potential impacts of global changes, and the adaptive capacity to cope with these impacts, this assessment shows that southern Europe in particular will be vulnerable to land use change. Projected economic growth increases adaptive capacity, but is also associated with the most negative potential impacts. The potential impacts of more environmentally oriented developments are smaller, indicating an important role for both policy and society in determining eventual residual impacts. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. CR *IM TEAM, 2001, IM 2 2 IMPL SRES SCE *IPCC, 2001, CLIM CHANG 2001 MIT *IPCC, 2001, CLIM CHANG 2001 SCI *IPCC, 2001, IMP AD VULN CONTR WO *MILL EC ASS, 2003, EC HUM WELLB FRAM AS *UNEP, 2002, GEO 3 GLOB ENV OUTL *WORLD CONS MON CT, 1992, GLOB BIOD STAT EARTH ALCAMO J, 2002, ENVIRON SCI POLICY, V5, P255 BUNCE RGH, 1987, BIOMASS ENERGY IND, P1272 CORNELISSEN AMG, 2001, AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON, V86, P173 DAILY GC, 1997, NATURES SERV EKBOIR J, 2002, CIMMYT 2000 2001 WOR EWERT F, 2005, AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON, V107, P101 GALLOWAY JN, 2001, WATER AIR SOIL POL 1, V130, P17 GEIST HJ, 2002, BIOSCIENCE, V52, P143 GROTHMANN T, IN PRESS PEOPLE RISK KANKAANPAA S, 2004, CONSTRUCTION EUROPEA KASPERSON JX, 2001, SEI RISK VULNERABILI KATES RW, 2001, SCIENCE, V292, P641 KLIJN JA, 2005, 1196 EURURALIS LAMBIN EF, 2001, HUMAN POLICY DIMENSI, V11, P261 LUERS AL, 2003, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V13, P255 METZGER MJ, 2004, ATEAM VULNERABILITY METZGER MJ, 2005, GLOBAL ECOL BIOGEOGR, V14, P549 METZGER MJ, 2005, INT J APPL EARTH OBS, V7, P253 METZGER MJ, 2005, THESIS WAGENINGEN U MITCHELL TD, 2004, 55 U E ANGL TYND CTR NAKICENOVIC N, 2000, IPCC SPECIAL REPORT REGINSTER I, IN PRESS SCENARIOS F REID WV, 2005, MILLENNIUM ECOSYSTEM ROUNSEVELL MDA, 2005, AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON, V107, P117 SCHROTER D, 2003, 5 OP M HUM DIM GLOB SCHROTER D, 2005, SCIENCE, V310, P1333 SCHROTER D, 2005, STRATEGIES GLOBAL CH, V10, P573 SMITH JB, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, P913 STEFFEN W, 2001, IGBP, V4, P2 THOMAS CD, 2004, NATURE, V427, P145 THUILLER W, 2004, J BIOGEOGR, V31, P353 TURNER BL, 1997, EARTH SCI FRONTIERS, V4, P26 TURNER BL, 2003, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V100, P8074 VANDERMEIJDEN R, 1996, GORTERIA, V22, P1 VANITTERSUM MK, 2003, EUR J AGRON, V18, P201 WATSON RT, 2000, LAND USE LAND USE CH YOHE GW, 2002, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V12, P25 NR 44 TC 3 J9 AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON BP 69 EP 85 PY 2006 PD MAY VL 114 IS 1 GA 024XX UT ISI:000236231000006 ER PT J AU Chowdhury, RR Turner, BL TI Reconciling agency and structure in empirical analysis: Smallholder land use in the southern Yucatan, Mexico SO ANNALS OF THE ASSOCIATION OF AMERICAN GEOGRAPHERS LA English DT Review C1 Univ Miami, Dept Geog & Reg Studies, Coral Gables, FL 33124 USA. Clark Univ, Grad Sch Geog, Worcester, MA 01610 USA. RP Chowdhury, RR, Univ Miami, Dept Geog & Reg Studies, 1000 Mem Dr, Coral Gables, FL 33124 USA. AB The agent-structure binary in human-environment relations has historically ascribed primacy to either decision-making agents or political-economic structures as the anthropogenic force driving landscape change. This binary has, in part, separated cultural and political ecology, despite important research weaving structure and agency in each of these and related subfields. The implications of approaching explanations of land use using this binary are illustrated systematically, drawing from empirical research on smallholder land use in the southern Yucatan of Mexico, a development frontier and environmental conservation region. The land-use strategies of mixed subsistence-market smallholder cultivators are explored through agent, structure, and integrated agent-structure models addressing parcel allocations to a suite of regionally evolving and/or extant land uses. The models are compared to illustrate what understanding is missed by a focus on either approach alone and what is gained by joining them. Results suggest that focusing on structure or agency alone may lead to inadequate and even erroneous characterizations of the variables that are of interest to the chosen approach. A sectorally disaggregated approach can identify suites of factors that drive particular land uses. CR *FAO, 1999, STAT WORLDS FOR 1999 *IGBP IHDP, 1995, 35 IGPIDHP *IGBP IHDP, 2005, 53 IGBPIHDP *MEA, 2003, EC HUM WELL FRAM ASS *NRC, 1999, OUR COMM JOURN TRANS *SEMARNAP, 2000, PROGR MAN RES BIOS C ABIZAID C, 2004, LAND USE POLICY, V21, P71 ACHARD F, 1998, TREES PUBLICATION SE BARLETT PF, 1980, AGR DECISION MAKING BASSETT TJ, 1988, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V78, P453 BATTERBURY SPJ, 1999, LAND DEGRAD DEV, V10, P279 BEBBINGTON A, 1997, GEOGR J 2, V163, P189 BEBBINGTON A, 1999, ECON GEOGR, V75, P395 BLAIKIE P, 1987, LAND DEGRADATION SOC BLAIKIE PM, 1994, RISK NATURAL HAZARDS, V1, P1 BOSERUP E, 1965, CONDITIONS AGR GROWT BROOKFIELD HC, 1964, ECON GEOGR, V40, P283 BROOKFIELD HC, 1972, PAC VIEWPOINT, V13, P30 BROOKFIELD HC, 1984, PAC VIEWPOINT, V25, P15 BRYANT RL, 1997, 3 WORLD POLITICAL EC BRYK AS, 2002, HIERARCHICAL LINEAR BURTON I, 1978, ENV HAZARD, V1, P1 BUTZER KW, 1989, CULTURAL ECOLOGY CHAYANOV AV, 1966, THEORY PEASANT EC CHOWDHURY RR, 2003, THESIS CLARK U WORCE COOMES OT, 2000, ECOL ECON, V32, P109 CUTTER SL, 2001, AM HAZARDSCAPES REGI ELLEN R, 1982, ENV SUBSISTENCE SYST EVANS TP, 2001, ECOL MODEL, V143, P95 FORSYTH T, 2003, CRITICAL POLITICAL E FOX J, 1996, WORLD DEV, V24, P1089 GREENE WH, 2003, ECONOMETRIC ANAL GUBA EG, 1990, PARADIGM DIALOG GUNDERSON LH, 2002, PANARCHY UNDERSTANDI, V1, P1 GUTMAN G, 2004, LAND CHANGE SCI OBSE HAENN N, 1999, HUM ECOL, V27, P477 HAENN N, 2002, ETHNOLOGY, V41, P1 HEWITT K, 1983, INTERPRETATIONS CALA JONES N, 2005, INT J IMPACT ENG, V32, P2 KASPERSON JX, 2005, SOCIAL CONTOURS RISK, V1 KASPERSON JX, 2005, SOCIAL CONTOURS RISK, V2 KATES RW, 2001, SCIENCE, V292, P641 KATZ EG, 2000, LAND ECON, V76, P114 KENNEDY P, 1998, GUIDE ECONOMETRICS KEYS E, 2004, LAND DEGRAD DEV, V15, P397 KLEPEIS P, 2001, LAND USE POLICY, V18, P27 KLEPEIS P, 2003, ECON GEOGR, V79, P221 KLOOSTER DJ, 2003, LAT AM RES REV, V38, P94 LANEY RM, 2002, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V92, P702 LAWRENCE D, 2002, INTERCIENCIA, V27, P1 LAWRENCE D, 2004, ECOSYSTEMS LAND USE, P277 LIBBY LW, 2003, AM J AGR ECON, V85, P1194 LIVERMAN DM, 1999, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V89, P107 LIVERMAN DM, 2004, GEOGRAPHY AM DAWN 21, P267 MARQUETTE CM, 1998, HUM ECOL, V26, P573 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 MCCRACKEN SD, 1999, PHOTOGRAMM ENG REM S, V65, P1311 MERTENS B, 2000, WORLD DEV, V28, P983 MITCHELL JK, 1989, GEOGRAPHY AM, P411 MOHAN G, 2002, PROG HUM GEOG, V26, P191 NETTING RM, 1993, SMALL HOLDERS HOUSEH PALDAM M, 2000, J ECON SURV, V14, P629 PAN WKY, 2005, GLOBAL PLANET CHANGE, V47, P232 PEET R, 1996, LIBERATION ECOLOGIES PEREZSALICRUP DR, 2001, TROPICAL ECOSYSTEMS, P63 PERRAULT T, 2004, GEOGR REV, V93, P328 PERZ SG, 2002, WORLD DEV, V30, P1009 PICHON FJ, 1997, ECON DEV CULT CHANGE, V45, P707 POLSKY C, 2001, AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON, V85, P133 PRETTY J, 2001, WORLD DEV, V29, P209 PRETTY J, 2003, SCIENCE, V302, P1912 PRIMACK RB, 1998, TIMBER TOURISTS TEMP QUIBRIA MG, 2003, ASIAN DEV REV, V280, P19 READ L, 2003, ECOL APPL, V13, P85 READ L, 2003, ECOSYSTEMS, V6, P747 ROBBINS P, 2004, POLITICAL ECOLOGY CR ROCHELEAU D, 1996, FEMINIST POLITICAL E RODRIGUEZ LC, 2004, ECOL ECON, V49, P243 RYDIN Y, 2004, LOCAL ENV, V9, P117 SIMMONS CS, 2004, J LATIN AM GEOGRAPHY, V3, P81 SNOOK LK, 1998, TIMBER TOURISTS TEMP, P61 STONE GD, 1996, SETTLEMENT ECOLOGY S TURNER BL, 1987, COMP FARMING SYSTEMS TURNER BL, 1996, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V93, P14984 TURNER BL, 2001, FOREST ECOL MANAG, V154, P343 TURNER BL, 2002, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V92, P52 TURNER BL, 2002, CHALLENGES CHANGING, P21 TURNER BL, 2003, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V100, P8074 TURNER BL, 2004, INTEGRATED LAND CHAN VANCE C, 2002, AGR ECON, V27, P317 VASQUEZLEON M, 2004, HUM ORGAN, V63, P21 VAYDA AP, 1999, HUM ECOL, V27, P167 WALKER PA, 2005, PROG HUM GEOG, V29, P73 WALKER R, 1996, ECOL ECON, V18, P1 WALKER R, 2002, INT REGIONAL SCI REV, V25, P169 WATS M, 1996, LIBERATION ECOLOGIES, P260 WATTS M, 1983, INTERPRETATIONS CALA, P231 WATTS MJ, 1983, SILENT VIOLENCE FOOD ZELLNER A, 1962, J AM STAT ASSOC, V57, P348 ZELLNER A, 1963, J AM STAT ASSOC, V58, P977 ZIMMERER KS, 1969, CONCEPTS HUMAN GEOGR, P161 ZIMMERER KS, 2003, POLITICAL ECOLOGY IN ZIMMERER KS, 2004, PROG HUM GEOG, V28, P795 NR 103 TC 0 J9 ANN ASSN AMER GEOGR BP 302 EP 322 PY 2006 PD JUN VL 96 IS 2 GA 047HV UT ISI:000237871300004 ER PT J AU Lambin, EF Geist, HJ Lepers, E TI Dynamics of land-use and land-cover change in tropical regions SO ANNUAL REVIEW OF ENVIRONMENT AND RESOURCES LA English DT Review C1 Univ Louvain, Dept Geog, B-1348 Louvain, Belgium. Univ Louvain, Dept Geog, LUCC Int Project Off, B-1348 Louvain, Belgium. RP Lambin, EF, Univ Louvain, Dept Geog, Pl Louis Pasteur 3, B-1348 Louvain, Belgium. AB We highlight the complexity of land-use/cover change and propose a framework for a more general understanding of the issue, with emphasis on tropical regions. The review summarizes recent estimates on changes in cropland, agricultural intensification, tropical deforestation, pasture expansion, and urbanization and identifies the still unmeasured land-cover changes. Climate-driven land-cover modifications interact with land-use changes. Land-use change is driven by synergetic factor combinations of resource scarcity leading to an increase in the pressure of production on resources, changing opportunities created by markets, outside policy intervention, loss of adaptive capacity, and changes in social organization and attitudes. The changes in ecosystem goods and services that result from land-use change feed back on the drivers of land-use change. A restricted set of dominant pathways of land-use change is identified. Land-use change can be understood using the concepts of complex adaptive systems and transitions. Integrated, place-based research on land-use/land-cover change requires a combination of the agent-based systems and narrative perspectives of understanding. We argue in this paper that a systematic analysis of local-scale land-use change studies, conducted over a range of timescales, helps to uncover general principles that provide an explanation and prediction of new land-use changes. 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1997, SCIENCE, V277, P494 WALKER R, 1996, ECOL ECON, V18, P67 WALKER R, 2000, WORLD DEV, V28, P683 WALKER R, 2002, INT REGIONAL SCI REV, V25, P169 WALSH SJ, 1999, PHOTOGRAMM ENG REM S, V65, P97 WALSH SJ, 2002, CHARACTERIZING MODEL, P187 WALSHMEYER S, 2002, LINKING PEOPLE PLACE WARRENRHODES K, 2001, AMBIO, V30, P429 WEINHOLD D, 1999, ECOL ECON, V31, P63 WIGGINS S, 1995, J INT DEV, V7, P807 WOODWELL GM, 1983, SCIENCE, V222, P1081 WUNDER S, 2000, ENC DEFORESTATION EX XU JC, 1999, MT RES DEV, V19, P123 YOUNG OR, 2002, I DIMENSIONS ENV CHA YOUNG PC, 1999, PROGR ENV SCI, V1, P3 ZENG N, 1999, SCIENCE, V286, P1537 NR 186 TC 1 J9 ANNU REV ENVIRON RESOUR BP 205 EP 241 PY 2003 VL 28 GA 801NN UT ISI:000220102700007 ER PT J AU Pretty, JN Noble, AD Bossio, D Dixon, J Hine, RE de Vries, FWTP Morison, JIL TI Resource-conserving agriculture increases yields in developing countries SO ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY LA English DT Article C1 Univ Essex, Dept Biol Sci, Colchester CO4 3SQ, Essex, England. Univ Essex, Ctr Environm & Soc, Colchester CO4 3SQ, Essex, England. Kasetsart Univ, Bangkok 10903, Thailand. CIMMYT, Impact Tergeting & Assessment Program, Mexico City 06600, DF, Mexico. Int Water Management Inst, Colombo, Sri Lanka. Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Atmospher Phys, Int Project Off Monsoon Asia Integrated Reg Study, Beijing, Peoples R China. RP Pretty, JN, Univ Essex, Dept Biol Sci, Wivenhoe Pk, Colchester CO4 3SQ, Essex, England. AB Despite great recent progress, hunger and poverty remain widespread and agriculturally driven environmental damage is widely prevalent. The idea of agricultural sustainability centers on the need to develop technologies and practices that do not have adverse effects on environmental goods and services, and that lead to improvements in food productivity. Here we show the extent to which 286 recent interventions in 57 poor countries covering 37 M ha (3% of the cultivated area in developing countries) have increased productivity on 12.6 M farms while improving the supply of critical environmental services. The average crop yield increase was 79% (geometric mean 64%). All crops showed water use efficiency gains, with the highest improvement in rainfed crops. Potential carbon sequestered amounted to an average of 0.35 t C ha(-1) y(-1). If a quarter of the total area under these farming systems adopted sustainability enhancing practices, we estimate global sequestration could be 0.1 Gt C y(-1). Of projects with pesticide data, 77% resulted in a decline in pesticide use by 71% while yields grew by 42%. Although it is uncertain whether these approaches can meet future food needs, there are grounds for cautious optimism, particularly as poor farm households benefit more from their adoption. 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Mississippi State Univ, Inst Clean Energy Technol, Starkville, MS 39762 USA. Mississippi State Univ, Dept Phys & Astron, Starkville, MS 39762 USA. RP Han, FXX, Mississippi State Univ, Dept Plant & Soil Sci, Starkville, MS 39762 USA. AB Atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) has increased from a preindustrial concentration of about 280 ppm to about 367 ppm at present. The increase has closely followed the increase in CO2 emissions from the use of fossil fuels. Global warming caused by increasing amounts of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere is the major environmental challenge for the 21st century. Reducing worldwide emissions of CO2 requires multiple mitigation pathways, including reductions in energy consumption, more efficient use of available energy, the application of renewable energy sources, and sequestration. Sequestration is a major tool for managing carbon emissions. In a majority of cases CO2 is viewed as waste to be disposed; however, with advanced technology, carbon sequestration can become a value-added proposition. There are a number of potential opportunities that render sequestration economically viable. In this study, we review these most economically promising opportunities and pathways of carbon sequestration, including reforestation, best agricultural production, housing and furniture, enhanced oil recovery, coalbed methane (CBM), and CO2 hydrates. Many of these terrestrial and geological sequestration opportunities are expected to provide a direct economic benefit over that obtained by merely reducing the atmospheric CO2 loading. Sequestration opportunities in 11 states of the Southeast and South Central United States are discussed. Among the most promising methods for the region include reforestation and CBM. The annual forest carbon sink in this region is estimated to be 76 Tg C/year, which would amount to an expenditure of $11.1-13.9 billion/year. Best management practices could enhance carbon sequestration by 53.9 Tg C/year, accounting for 9.3% of current total annual regional greenhouse gas emission in the next 20 years. Annual carbon storage in housing, furniture, and other wood products in 1998 was estimated to be 13.9 Tg C in the region. Other sequestration options, including the direct injection of CO2 in deep saline aquifers, mineralization, and biomineralization, are not expected to lead to direct economic gain. More detailed studies are needed for assessing the ultimate changes to the environment and the associated indirect cost savings for carbon sequestration. 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Univ Agr Sci Uppsala, Res Sch Ecol Land Use, Dept Rural Dev Studies, Uppsala, Sweden. RP Darnhofer, K, Univ Agr Sci, Inst Agr Econ, Peter Jordan Str 82, A-1190 Vienna, Austria. AB The concept of socio-ecological resilience is applied to agricultural systems in general and to the farm level in particular. Resilience has three defining characteristics: the amount of change the system can undergo while maintaining its functions and structures, the degree of self-organization, and the capacity for learning and adaptation. To assess the resilience of a farming system, various elements that can build resilience are identified. Using these elements, the paper assesses organic agriculture using the IFOAM Basic Standard. The analysis shows that organic farming has a number of promising characteristics building resilience. However, when analyzing the current development of organic farming practice in light of the effects of government regulation and market dynamics, there is a danger that this quality is lost. Therefore, conversion alone may not be enough to ensure farm resilience. The ability of organic farming to realize its resilience building potential will depend on the ability of the organic movement to adapt and learn from the current experiences. (C) 2003 by The Haworth Press, Inc. All rights reserved. CR *IFOAM, 2001, BAS STAND ORG PROD P ALLEN P, 2000, AGR HUM VALUES, V17, P221 ASSOULINE G, 2000, 7 EUR ROUNDT CLEAN P BERENTSEN PBM, 1998, BIOL AGRIC HORTIC, V16, P311 BERKES F, 1998, LINKING SOCIAL ECOLO, V1, P1 BUCK D, 1997, SOCIOL RURALIS, V37, P3 CAMPBELL H, 2001, SOCIOL RURALIS, V41, P21 CARPENTER SR, 2001, ECOSYSTEMS, V4, P765 COOMBES B, 1998, SOCIOL RURALIS, V38, P127 DELIND LB, 2000, HUM ORGAN, V59, P198 EDWARDSJONES G, 2001, AGR SYST, V67, P31 ELLIS F, 2000, RURAL LIVELIHOODS DI FOLKE C, 1998, LINKING SOCIAL ECOLO, CH16 FOLKE C, 2002, NAVIGATING SOCIAL EC, CH14 GOODMAN D, 2000, AGR HUMAN VALUES, V17, P215 GUNDERSON LH, 1995, BARRIERS BRIDGES REN, V1, P1 GUNDERSON LH, 2000, ANNU REV ECOL SYST, V31, P425 GUTHMAN J, 1998, ANTIPODE, V30, P135 GUTHMAN J, 2000, AGR HUM VALUES, V17, P257 HALL A, 2001, SOCIOL RURALIS, V41, P399 HANSEN B, 2001, AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON, V83, P11 HINTERBERGER F, 2000, 3 BIENN C EUR SOC EC HOLLING CS, 1996, ENG ECOLOGICAL CONST HOLLING CS, 1973, ANNUAL REV ECOLOGY S, V4, P1 HOLLING CS, 1994, POPULATION EC DEV EN, P79 HOLLING CS, 1996, CONSERV BIOL, V10, P328 HOLLING CS, 2001, ECOSYSTEMS, V4, P390 IKERD J, 1999, C ORG AGR SPEC PROD IKERD J, 2001, IN NAT ORG C 2001 OR JANSEN K, 2000, BIOL AGRIC HORTIC, V17, P247 JIGGINS J, 2000, INT J AGR RESOURCES, V1, P28 KIRCHMANN H, 2000, EUR J AGRON, V12, P145 LEGUILLOU G, 2000, ORGANIC FARMING GUID LEVIN SA, 1999, FRAGILE DOMINION COM MEPPEM T, 1998, ECOL ECON, V26, P121 MICHELSEN J, 2001, SOCIOL RURALIS, V41, P62 MORGAN K, 2000, GEOFORUM, V31, P159 OPPERMANN R, 2001, OKOLOGISCHER LANDAU PETERSON GD, 1998, ECOSYSTEMS, V1, P6 PRETTY J, 1997, NATURAL RESOURCES FO, V21, P247 PRETTY J, 1998, LIVING LAND AGR FOOD RIGBY D, 2001, AGR SYST, V68, P21 ROLING NG, 1998, FACILITATING SUSTAIN, P283 ROSSI R, 2000, AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON, V77, P53 SCHEFFER M, 2000, ECOSYSTEMS, V3, P451 SCHNEEBERGER W, 2002, AM J ALTERNATIVE AGR, V17, P24 STOLZE M, 2000, ECON POLICY, V6, A410 TOVEY H, 1997, SOCIOL RURALIS, V37, P21 VANDERLEEUW S, 2000, WORKSH SYST SHOCKS S VANDERLEEUW SE, 2000, WAY WIND BLOWS CLIMA, P357 VOGL C, 2001, C BUILD BRIDG TRAD K VONWIRENLEHR S, 2001, AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON, V84, P115 WAGNER A, 1999, BIOL PHILOS, V14, P83 NR 53 TC 0 J9 J SUSTAINABLE AGR BP 81 EP 97 PY 2003 VL 22 IS 3 GA 713HW UT ISI:000184852500008 ER PT J AU Ebi, KL Kovats, RS Menne, B TI An approach for assessing human health vulnerability and public health interventions to adapt to climate change SO ENVIRONMENTAL HEALTH PERSPECTIVES LA English DT Article C1 LLC, ESS, Alexandria, VA 22304 USA. London Sch Hyg & Trop Med, Dept Publ Hlth & Policy, London WC1, England. WHO, Reg Off Europe, European Ctr Environm & Hlth, Rome, Italy. RP Ebi, KL, LLC, ESS, 5249 Tancreti Lane, Alexandria, VA 22304 USA. AB Assessments of the potential human health impacts of climate change are needed to inform the development of adaptation strategies, policies, and measures to lessen projected adverse impacts. We developed methods for country-level assessments to help policy makers make evidence-based decisions to increase resilience to current and future climates, and to provide information for national communications to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. The steps in an assessment should include the following: a) determine the scope of the assessment; b) describe the current distribution and burden of climate-sensitive health determinants and outcomes; c) identify and describe current strategies, policies, and measures designed to reduce the burden of climate-sensitive health determinants and outcomes; a) review the health implications of the potential impacts of climate variability and change in other sectors; e) estimate the future potential health impacts using scenarios of future changes in climate, socioeconomic, and other factors; f) synthesize the results; and g) identify additional adaptation policies and measures to reduce potential negative health impacts. Key issues for ensuring that an assessment is informative, timely, and useful include stakeholder involvement, an adequate management structure, and a communication strategy. CR *NRC, 1989, IMPR RISK COMM *UNFCCC, 2005, UN NAT FRAM CONV CLI ALBRITTON DL, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, P21 ARNELL NW, 2004, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V14, P3 BULTO PLO, 2006, ENVIRON HEALTH PERSP, V114, P1942 CAMPBELLLENDRUM D, 2006, ENVIRON HEALTH PERSP, V114, P1935 CASIMIRO E, 2006, ENVIRON HEALTH PERSP, V114, P1950 EBI KL, 2004, B AM METEOROL SOC, V85, P1067 EBI KL, 2006, ENVIRON HEALTH PERSP, V114, P1957 FURGAL C, 2006, ENVIRON HEALTH PERSP, V114, P1964 HULME M, 2002, CLIMATE CHANGE SCENA KOVATS RS, 2003, CLIMATE CHANGE HUMAN, P181 KOVATS RS, 2003, ENV CHANGE SERIES, V1 KOVATS RS, 2003, LANCET, V361, P1481 LIM B, 2004, ADAPTATION POLICY FR MCMICHAEL AJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, P451 MOSS RH, 2000, GUIDANCE PAPERS CROS, P33 NAKICENOVIC N, 2000, EMISSIONS SCENARIOS ONEILL MS, 2003, AM J EPIDEMIOL, V157, P1074 PATZ JA, 2005, NATURE, V438, P310 SCHERAGA JD, 2003, CLIMATE CHANG HUMAN, P237 SMIT B, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, P877 WILLOWS RI, 2003, CLIMATE ADAPTATION R YOHE GW, 2005, INTEGRATION PUBLIC H, P18 NR 24 TC 1 J9 ENVIRON HEALTH PERSPECT BP 1930 EP 1934 PY 2006 PD DEC VL 114 IS 12 GA 112BN UT ISI:000242500200043 ER PT J AU Yarnal, B Neff, R TI Whither parity? The need for a comprehensive curriculum in human-environment geography SO PROFESSIONAL GEOGRAPHER LA English DT Article C1 Penn State Univ, Ctr Integrated Reg Assessment, University Pk, PA 16802 USA. Penn State Univ, Dept Geog, University Pk, PA 16802 USA. RP Yarnal, B, Penn State Univ, Ctr Integrated Reg Assessment, University Pk, PA 16802 USA. AB If human-environment geography is central to the discipline, then human-environment courses should be a sizable segment of the undergraduate curriculum. Undergraduate educational offerings are inadequate, however, meaning that geography departments are shortchanging their majors, missing opportunities to attract and inform the general student body, and failing to meet the needs of future K-12 educators. Unless geography provides satisfactory human-environment education, it will likely have much less impact on twenty-first-century environmental science. CR *AAG, 2003, AAG NEWSLETTER, V38, P1 *AAG, 2003, GUID GEOGR PROGR N A *ENV PERC BEH GEOG, MISS STAT *MILL EC ASS, 2003, EC HUM WELL BEING FR *NAT RES COUNC, 1999, OUR COMM JOURN TRANS *NAT RES COUNC, 2001, GRAND CHALL ENV SCI *NSF ACERE, 2003, COMPL ENV SYST SYNTH *UN C ENV DEV, 1992, AG 21 PROGR ACT SUST BEDNARZ SW, 1994, GEOGRAPHY LIFE NATL CLARK WC, 2003, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V100, P8059 DIDUCK AP, 1997, CAN GEOGR-GEOGR CAN, V41, P294 EMEL J, 1989, NEW MODELS GEOGRAPHY, P49 GAILLE GL, 2004, GEOGRAPHY AM TURN 21 GOUDIE AS, 1986, T I BRIT GEOGR, V11, P454 HUCKLE J, 2002, GEOGRAPHY 1, V87, P64 LIVINGSTONE D, 2000, J GEOGRAPHY HIGHER E, V26, P217 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 MCKEOWNICE R, 2000, J ENVIRON EDUC, V32, P4 MCKEOWNICE R, 2002, ED SUSTAINABLE DEV T METZ B, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 RAVEN PH, 2002, SCIENCE, V297, P954 SACHS W, 1993, GLOBAL ECOLOGY NEW A, P3 SCHELLNHUBER HJ, 1998, EARTH SYSTEM ANAL IN SMITH N, 1989, NEW MODELS GEOGRAPHY, P142 STERN PC, 1992, GLOBAL ENV CHANGE UN STODDART DR, 1987, T I BRIT GEOGR, V12, P327 TURNER BL, 2002, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V92, P52 WARF B, 1999, PROF GEOGR, V51, P586 WILBANKS TJ, 1999, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V43, P601 NR 29 TC 0 J9 PROF GEOGR BP 28 EP 36 PY 2004 PD FEB VL 56 IS 1 GA 766EY UT ISI:000188354800005 ER PT J AU HELBLING, J TI ECOLOGY AND POLITICS IN NONSTATE SOCIETIES SO KOLNER ZEITSCHRIFT FUR SOZIOLOGIE UND SOZIALPSYCHOLOGIE LA German DT Article RP HELBLING, J, UNIV ZURICH,ETHNOL SEMINAR,FREIENSTEINSTR 5,CH-8032 ZURICH,SWITZERLAND. AB According to widespread common sense, members of non-state societies do not overuse the natural resources on which they rely. This position is partially supported by functionalist ecology according to which institutions contribute to a homoeostatic equilibrium of the local groups' ecosystems. However, if one takes into consideration not only the conditions under which a society reproduces in a natural environment but also the maximizing strategies of local groups, another thesis results. Whereas among hunters-and-gatherers the maximizing of an economic advantage (i.e. netto yield in production) prevents a damage of the natural environment, among warlike shifting cultivators maximization of political advantages (such as power, prestige and military strength) leads to an unintentional damage of the natural environment. 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Preliminary results from the Machiguenga of the Peruvian Amazon SO RATIONALITY AND SOCIETY LA English DT Article C1 Wissenschaftskolleg Berlin, D-14193 Berlin, Germany. RP Smith, N, Wissenschaftskolleg Berlin, Wallotstr 19, D-14193 Berlin, Germany. AB Contrary to the widespread belief that indigenous peoples are adept managers of their natural environments, preliminary research from the Machiguenga of the Peruvian Amazon indicates that this may not be the case. In an attempt to identify whether the Machiguenga in the village of Camisea conserve natural resources, the group was studied in relation to resource use, perceptions of the environment, and their understanding of population biology. Cultural characteristics were examined as well, such as social sanctioning and awareness of the behaviors of others in the group, both of which may be necessary for group-level conservation. It was found that the Machiguenga lack the social structure and cognitive models needed for sustainable resource use - although, given the particular cultural and economic history of the group, these elements made good adaptive sense. 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Ben Gurion Univ Negev, Jacob Blaustein Inst Desert Res, Dept Solar Energy & Environm Phys, IL-84105 Beer Sheva, Israel. Ben Gurion Univ Negev, Dept Ind Engn & Management, IL-84990 Sede Boqer, Israel. RP Zemel, A, Ben Gurion Univ Negev, Jacob Blaustein Inst Desert Res, Dept Solar Energy & Environm Phys, Sede Boker Campus, IL-84990 Sede Boqer, Israel. AB Welfare measures under threats of environmental catastrophes are studied using the "parable" apparatus of Weitzman and Lofgren [On the welfare significance of green accounting as taught by parable, J. Environ. Econ. Manage. 32 (1997) 139-153]. The occurrence probability of the catastrophic events is driven (at least partly) by anthropogenic activities such as natural resource exploitation. Without external effects, the green NNP is a genuine welfare measure vis-a-vis a particular parable economy. Often, however, the occurrence hazard constitutes a public bad, treated as an externality by agents who ignore their own contribution to its accumulation. In such cases the green NNP, although accounting for the event hazard rate per se, fails to properly internalize future effects on the hazard rate of current economic activities and as a result overestimates welfare. The bias term associated with the green NNP is derived and expressed in a simple and interpretable form. (c) 2006 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. CR MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 ARONSSON T, 1996, SCAND J ECON, V98, P185 ARONSSON T, 2004, WELFARE MEASUREMENT ARRONSON T, 1998, ENVIRON RESOUR ECON, V11, P117 ASHEIM GB, 1997, SCAND J ECON, V99, P355 ASHEIM GB, 2001, ECON LETT, V73, P233 ASHEIM GB, 2001, J ENVIRON ECON MANAG, V41, P252 ASHEIM GB, 2004, SCAND J ECON, V106, P361 CLARKE HR, 1994, J ECON DYN CONTROL, V18, P991 CROPPER ML, 1976, J ENVIRON ECON MANAG, V3, P1 DASGUPTA P, 2003, ENVIRON RESOUR ECON, V26, P499 FISHER AC, 2003, ENVIRON RESOUR ECON, V25, P395 HARTWICK JM, 1990, J PUBLIC ECON, V43, P291 HAYHOE K, 2004, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V101, P12422 LIMBURG KE, 2002, ECOL ECON, V41, P409 LUCAS R, 1998, J MONETARY ECON, V22, P3 MALER KG, 1991, ENVIRON RESOUR ECON, V1, P1 MALER KG, 2000, EUR ECON REV, V44, P645 MICHEL P, 1982, ECONOMETRICA, V50, P975 TSUR Y, 1994, NATURAL RESOURCE MOD, V8, P389 TSUR Y, 1996, J ECON DYN CONTROL, V20, P1289 TSUR Y, 1998, J ECON DYN CONTROL, V22, P967 TSUR Y, 2005, FRONTIERS BIODIVERSI WEITZMAN ML, 1976, Q J ECON, V90, P156 WEITZMAN ML, 1997, J ENVIRON ECON MANAG, V32, P139 WEITZMAN ML, 1997, SCAND J ECON, V99, P1 WEITZMAN ML, 2000, ENVIRON DEV ECON, V5, P55 WEITZMAN ML, 2001, SCAND J ECON, V103, P1 WEITZMAN ML, 2003, INCOME CAPITAL MAXIM NR 29 TC 0 J9 J ENVIRON ECON MANAGE BP 421 EP 429 PY 2006 PD JUL VL 52 IS 1 GA 066ID UT ISI:000239222000004 ER PT J AU Mortimore, MJ Adams, WM TI Farmer adaptation, change and 'crisis' in the Sahel SO GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS LA English DT Article C1 African Drylands Res, Crewkerne TA18 7LG, Somerset, England. Univ Cambridge, Dept Geog, Cambridge CB2 3EN, England. RP Mortimore, MJ, African Drylands Res, 17 Mkt Sq, Crewkerne TA18 7LG, Somerset, England. AB Perceptions of a continuing crisis in managing Sahelian resources are rooted in five dimensions of the Sahel Drought of 1972-1974 as it was understood at the time: crises in rainfall (drought), food supply, livestock management, environmental degradation, and household coping capabilities. A closer examination of household livelihood and farming systems shows that adaptive strategies have been evolved in response to each of these imperatives. Illustrations are provided from recent research in north-east Nigeria. A systematic understanding of indigenous adaptive capabilities can provide a basis for policies enabling a reduction of dependency on aid assistance in the Sahel. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. 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New Hope Environm Serv, Charlottesville, VA 22903 USA. Cato Inst, Washington, DC 20001 USA. Univ Virginia, Dept Hlth Evaluat Sci, Sch Med, HSC, Charlottesville, VA 22908 USA. RP Davis, RE, Univ Virginia, Dept Environm Sci, POB 400123, Charlottesville, VA 22904 USA. AB Human mortality in US cities is highest on extremely hot, humid summer days, but in general, winter-mortality rates are significantly higher than summer rates. The observed winter-dominant warming pattern, which has been linked to increasing greenhouse-gas concentrations, has led some researchers to propose future mortality decreases, while others contend that increasing heat-related mortality in summer will more than offset any winter-mortality reductions. Because winter mortality is only weakly linked to daily weather, we examine the seasonality of mortality using monthly data for 28 major US cities from 1964 to 1998. Daily all-causes mortality counts are age-standardized, aggregated monthly, and related to mean monthly 07:00 h local standard time (LST) air temperature in each city. The climate-mortality seasonality patterns are examined for spatial and temporal (decadal-scale) variability, and the impact of climate change on mortality rates is investigated after an approximation of the inherent technology/adaptation trend is removed from the monthly time series. Mortality seasonality varies little between most US cities with comparable climates. By the 1990s, monthly mortality anomalies were similar between all cities regardless of climate, suggesting there is no net mortality benefit to be derived from a location's climate. After removing the impact of long-term declining mortality rates, some statistically significant monthly climate-mortality relationships remain in most cities, with generally positive temperature-mortality relationships in summer and negative relationships in winter. Future mortality could be reduced with a winter-dominant warming but increase with pronounced summer warming. In each case, however, net future climate-related mortality rates are very low relative to the baseline death rate, indicating that climate change will have little impact in defining future mortality patterns in US cities. CR *NAT ASS SYNTH TEA, 1998, COMPR MORT FIL *NAT ASS SYNTH TEA, 2000, CLIM CHANG IMP US PO *NAT CLIM DAT CTR, 1993, SOL MET SURF OBS NET *NAT CLIM DAT CTR, 1997, HOURL US WEATH OBS 1 *NAT ENV SAT DAT I, 2000, TD 3280 US SURF AIRW *US BUR CENS, 1973 1982 92 2001 GE ANDERSON RN, 1998, NATL VITAL STAT REPO, V47 APPLEGATE WB, 1981, J AM GERIATR SOC, V29, P337 AULICIEMS A, 1989, INT J BIOMETEOROL, V33, P215 BENTHAM CG, 1997, EC IMPACTS HOT SUMME, P87 BLUESTEIN M, 1999, B AM METEOROL SOC, V80, P1893 BRIDGER CA, 1976, ENVIRON RES, V12, P38 CESARIO SK, 2002, JOGNN, V31, P526 CHANGNON SA, 1996, B AM METEOROL SOC, V77, P1496 DANET S, 1999, CIRCULATION, V100, E1 DAVIS RE, 2002, CLIMATE RES, V22, P175 DAVIS RE, 2003, ENVIRON HEALTH PERSP, V111, P1712 DAVIS RE, 2003, INT J BIOMETEOROL, V47, P166 DONALDSON GC, 1997, J EPIDEMIOL COMMUN H, V51, P643 DONALDSON GC, 1998, BRIT MED J, V317, P978 ENG H, 1998, J CARDIOVASC RISK, V5, P89 FROST DB, 1993, INT J BIOMETEOROL, V37, P46 GLASS R, 1979, LANCET, V3, P485 GORJANC ML, 1999, AM J EPIDEMIOL, V149, P1152 GOVER M, 1938, PUBLIC HLTH REP, V53, P1122 GUEST CS, 1999, CLIMATE RES, V13, P1 HAYDEN BP, 1998, PHILOS T ROY SOC B, V352, P5 HOUGHTON JT, 2001, 3 IPCC KALKSTEIN LS, 1989, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V79, P44 KALKSTEIN LS, 1993, EXPERIENTIA, V49, P969 KALKSTEIN LS, 1993, LANCET, V342, P1397 KALKSTEIN LS, 1997, ENVIRON HEALTH PERSP, V105, P84 KALNAY E, 2003, NATURE, V423, P528 KEATINGE WR, 1997, LANCET, V349, P1341 KILBOURNE EM, 1997, PUBLIC HLTH CONSEQUE, P245 KLONER RA, 1999, CIRCULATION, V100, P1630 KUNST AE, 1993, AM J EPIDEMIOL, V137, P331 LANGFORD IH, 1995, INT J BIOMETEOROL, V38, P141 LANSKA DJ, 1999, NEUROLOGY, V52, P984 LARSEN U, 1990, INT J BIOMETEOROL, V34, P136 LARSEN U, 1990, SOC BIOL, V37, P172 LASCHEWSKI G, 2002, CLIMATE RES, V21, P91 LERCHL A, 1998, INT J BIOMETEOROL, V42, P84 LYSTER WR, 1976, LANCET, V2, P469 MARMOR M, 1975, ARCH ENVIRON HEALTH, V30, P130 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 MCGREGOR GR, 1999, CLIMATE RES, V13, P17 MCGREGOR GR, 2001, INT J BIOMETEOROL, V45, P133 MCGREGOR GR, 2004, CLIMATE RES, V25, P253 MICHAELS PJ, 1998, CLIMATE RES, V10, P27 MICHAELS PJ, 2000, SATANIC GASES CLEARI MOORE TG, 1998, ECON INQ, V36, P471 OECHSLI FW, 1970, ENVIRON RES, V3, P277 OSCZEVSKI RJ, 1995, ARCTIC, V48, P372 PELL JP, 1999, QJM-MON J ASSOC PHYS, V92, P689 QUAYLE RG, 1998, WEATHER FORECAST, V13, P1187 SAKAMOTOMOMIYAM.M, 1977, SEASONALITY HUMAN MO SCHUMAN SH, 1964, JAMA-J AM MED ASSOC, V180, P131 SCHUMAN SH, 1972, ENVIRON RES, V5, P59 SERETAKIS D, 1997, JAMA-J AM MED ASSOC, V278, P1012 SIMONSEN L, 1997, AM J PUBLIC HEALTH, V87, P1944 SMOYER KE, 1993, THESIS U DELAWARE NE SMOYER KE, 2000, INT J BIOMETEOROL, V44, P190 STEADMAN RG, 1971, J APPL METEOROL, V10, P674 THOMPSON WW, 2003, JAMA-J AM MED ASSOC, V289, P179 NR 65 TC 0 J9 CLIMATE RES BP 61 EP 76 PY 2004 PD APR 19 VL 26 IS 1 GA 830AY UT ISI:000222095200006 ER PT J AU OBrien, KL Sygna, L Haugen, JE TI Vulnerable or resilient? A multi-scale assessment of climate impacts and vulnerability in Norway SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 Univ Oslo, CICERO, N-0318 Oslo, Norway. Norwegian Meteorol Inst, N-0313 Oslo, Norway. RP OBrien, KL, Univ Oslo, CICERO, POB 1129, N-0318 Oslo, Norway. AB This paper explores the issue of climate vulnerability in Norway, an affluent country that is generally considered to be resilient to the impacts of climate change. In presenting a multiscale assessment of climate change impacts and vulnerability in Norway, we show that the concept of vulnerability depends on the scale of analysis. Both exposure and the distribution of climate sensitive sectors vary greatly across scale. So do the underlying social and economic conditions that influence adaptive capacity. These findings question the common notion that climate change may be beneficial for Norway, and that the country can readily adapt to climate change. As scale differences are brought into consideration, vulnerability emerges within some regions, localities, and social groups. To cope with actual and potential changes in climate and climate variability, it will be necessary to acknowledge climate vulnerabilities at the regional and local levels, and to address them accordingly. This multi-scale assessment of impacts and vulnerability in Norway reinforces the importance of scale in global change research. 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Meteorol Serv Canada, Toronto, ON, Canada. UNDP GEF, Natl Commun Support Programme, New York, NY USA. UNFCCC Secretariat, Bonn, Germany. Univ E Anglia, Sch Dev Studies, Norwich, Norfolk, England. Univ E Anglia, Tyndall Ctr Climate Change Res, Norwich, Norfolk, England. RP Huq, S, Int Inst Environm & Dev, Climate Change Programme, 3 Endsleigh St, London WC1H 0DD, England. AB Under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), adaptation has recently gained importance, yet adaptation is much less developed than mitigation as a policy response. Adaptation research has been used to help answer to related but distinct questions. (1) To what extent can adaptation reduce impacts of climate change? (2) What adaptation policies are needed, and how can they best be developed, applied and funded? For the first question, the emphasis is on the aggregate value of adaptation so that this may be used to estimate net impacts. An important purpose is to compare net impacts with the costs of mitigation. In the second question, the emphasis is on the design and prioritisation of adaptation policies and measures. While both types of research are conducted in a policy context, they differ in their character, application, and purpose. The impacts/mitigation research is orientated towards the physical and biological science of impacts and adaptation, while research on the ways and means of adaptation is focussed on the social and economic determinants of vulnerability in a development context. The main purpose of this paper is to demonstrate how the national adaptation studies carried under the UNFCCC are broadening the paradigm, from the impacts/mitigation to vulnerability/adaptation. For this to occur, new policy research is needed. While the broad new directions of both research and policy can now be discerned, there remain a number of outstanding issues to be considered. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *ENB, 2001, SUMMARY INTERREGIONA MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 *NCSP, 2000, WORKSH REP THEM REG *NCSP, 2000, WORKSH REP THEM WORK *UNEP, 2001, VULNERABILITY INDICE *WORLD BANK, 2000, 21104BD WORLD BANK R *WORLD BANK, 2000, AD CLIM CHANG CIT SE, V4 APUULI B, 2000, ENVIRON MONIT ASSESS, V61, P145 BURTON I, 2001, ADAPTATION POLICY FR CARTER TR, 1994, IPCC TECHNICAL GUIDE CLARK WC, 2000, ASSESSING VULNERABIL FEENSTRA JF, 1998, HDB METHODS CLIMATE HULME M, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE SO AF KELLY PM, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V47, P325 KLEIN RJT, 1999, AMBIO, V28, P182 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 OBRIEN KL, 2000, 200002 CICERO PARRY ML, 1998, CLIMATE IMPACT ADAPT RIBOT JC, 1996, CLIMATE VARIABILITY, V1, P1 ROSENZWEIG C, 1994, NATURE, V367, P133 SMIT B, 2001, IPCC 2 ASSESSMENT RE, CH18 SMITH JB, 2001, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V50, P1 WATSON RT, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, V1, P1 NR 23 TC 5 J9 CLIM POLICY BP 145 EP 159 PY 2002 PD SEP VL 2 IS 2-3 GA 626TB UT ISI:000179888400003 ER PT J AU Holman, IP Rounsevell, MDA Shackley, S Harrison, PA Nicholls, RJ Berry, PM Audsley, E TI A regional, multi-sectoral and integrated assessment of the impacts of climate and socio-economic change in the UK SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 Cranfield Univ, Inst Water & Environm, Cranfield MK43 0AL, Beds, England. Univ Catholique Louvain, B-1348 Louvain, Belgium. Univ Manchester, Tyndall Ctr Climate Change Res, Manchester, Lancs, England. Environm Change Inst, Oxford, England. Univ Southampton, Sch Civil Engn & Environm, Southampton, Hants, England. Silsoe Res Inst, Silsoe, Beds, England. RP Holman, IP, Cranfield Univ, Inst Water & Environm, Cranfield MK43 0AL, Beds, England. AB Policy makers and stakeholders are increasingly demanding impact assessments which produce policy-relevant guidance on the local impacts of global climate change. The 'Regional Climate Change Impact and Response Studies in East Anglia and North West England' (RegIS) study developed a methodology for stakeholder-led, regional climate change impact assessment that explicitly evaluated local and regional (sub-national) scale impacts and adaptation options, and cross-sectoral interactions between four major sectors driving landscape change (agriculture, biodiversity, coasts and floodplains and water resources). The 'Drivers-Pressure-State-Impact-Response' (DPSIR) approach provided a structure for linking the modelling and scenario techniques. A 5 x 5 km grid was chosen for numerical modelling input (climate and socio-economic scenarios) and output, as a compromise between the climate scenario resolution (10 x 10 km) and the detailed spatial resolution output desired by stakeholders. Fundamental methodological issues have been raised by RegIS which reflect the difficulty of multi-sectoral modelling studies at local scales. In particular, the role of scenarios, error propagation in linked models, model validity, transparency and transportability as well as the use of integrated assessment to evaluate adaptation options to climate change are examined. Integrated assessments will provide new insights which will compliment those derived by more detailed sectoral assessments. 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RP Blanco, AVR, Both ENDS, Strateg Cooperat, Nieuwe Keizersgracht 45, NL-1018 VC Amsterdam, Netherlands. AB Climate change is expected to lead to an increase in the number and strength of natural hazards produced by climatic events. This paper presents some examples of the experiences of community-based organisations (CBOs) and non-governmental organisations (NGOs) of variations in climate, and looks at how they have incorporated their findings into the design and implementation of local adaptation strategies. Local organisations integrate climate change and climatic hazards into the design and development of their projects as a means of adapting to their new climatic situation. Projects designed to boost the resilience of local livelihoods are good examples of local adaptation strategies. To upscale these adaptation initiatives, there is a need to improve information exchange between CBOs, NGOs and academia. Moreover, there is a need to bridge the gap between scientific and local knowledge in order to create projects capable of withstanding stronger natural hazards. CR *IPCC, 2001, CLIM CHANG 2001 SCI MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 BLANCO RAV, 2004, COMPREHENSIVE EVN PR GUPTA J, 1997, INT ENVIRON AFFAIR, V9, P289 JASANOFF S, 1997, THIRD WORLD Q, V18, P579 PIELKE RA, 1998, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V8, P159 SMIT B, 1999, MITIGATION ADAPTATIO, V4, P199 NR 7 TC 0 J9 DISASTERS BP 140 EP 147 PY 2006 PD MAR VL 30 IS 1 GA 017LA UT ISI:000235693900010 ER PT J AU Garcia-Gonzalo, J Peltola, H Briceno-Elizondo, E Kellomaki, S TI Changed thinning regimes may increase carbon stock under climate change: A case study from a Finnish boreal forest SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 Univ Joensuu, Fac Forestry, FI-80101 Joensuu, Finland. RP Garcia-Gonzalo, J, Univ Joensuu, Fac Forestry, POB 111, FI-80101 Joensuu, Finland. AB A physiological growth and yield model was applied for assessing the effects of forest management and climate change on the carbon (C) stocks in a forest management unit located in Finland. The aim was to outline an appropriate management strategy with regard to C stock in the ecosystem (C in trees and C in soil) and C in harvested timber. Simulations covered 100 years using three climate scenarios (current climate, ECHAM4 and HadCM2), five thinning regimes (based on current forest management recommendations for Finland) and one unthinned. Simulations were undertaken with ground true stand inventory data (1451 hectares) representing Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris), Norway spruce (Picea abies) and silver birch (Betula pendula) stands. Regardless of the climate scenario, it was found that shifting from current practices to thinning regimes that allowed higher stocking of trees resulted in an increase of up to 11% in C in the forest ecosystem. It also increased the C in the timber yield by up to 14%. Compared to current climatic conditions, the mean increase over the thinning regimes in the total C stock in the forest ecosystem due to the climate change was a maximum of 1%; but the mean increase in total C in timber yield over thinning regimes was a maximum of 12%. CR *METS VUOS, 2001, FINN STAT YB FOR BATTAGLIA M, 1998, FOREST ECOL MANAG, V102, P13 BENGTSSON J, 1993, NZ J FORESTRY SCI, V23, P380 CAJANDER AK, 1949, ACTA FOR FENN, V56, P69 CANNELL MGR, 1995, FORESTRY, V68, P35 CARTER T, 2002, UNDERSTANDING GLOBAL, P32 CHERTOV OG, 1997, ECOL MODEL, V94, P177 DEWAR RC, 1992, TREE PHYSIOL, V11, P49 DIAZBALTEIRO L, 2003, FOREST ECOL MANAG, V174, P447 ERHARD M, 2001, LONG TERM EFFECTS CL, P151 FARQUHAR GD, 1980, PLANTA, V149, P67 FINER L, 2003, FOREST ECOL MANAG, V174, P51 GARCIAGONZALO J, 2006, UNPUB ECOLOGICAL MOD GONCALVES JLM, 1994, SOIL BIOL BIOCHEM, V26, P1557 GRACE J, 2001, CARBON CYCLE, P609 HOUGHTON JT, 1990, CLIMATE CHANGE IPCC, P365 HOUGHTON JT, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, P881 HYNYNEN J, 1993, SCAND J FOR RES, V8, P326 HYNYNEN J, 2002, 835 FINN FOR RES I, P116 KARJALAINEN T, 1996, FOREST ECOL MANAG, V80, P113 KARJALAINEN T, 1996, J ENVIRON MANAGE, V47, P311 KARJALAINEN T, 1999, ENVIRON SCI POLICY, V2, P165 KARJALAINEN T, 2003, FOREST POLICY ECON, V5, P141 KAUPPI P, 2001, MITIGATION IPCC 3 AS, P302 KAUPPI PE, 1995, PLANT SOIL, V168, P633 KELLOMAKI S, 1993, FOREST ECOL MANAG, V59, P237 KELLOMAKI S, 1996, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V32, P423 KELLOMAKI S, 1997, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V37, P683 KELLOMAKI S, 1997, ECOL MODEL, V97, P121 KELLOMAKI S, 1997, FOREST ECOL MANAG, V94, P195 KELLOMAKI S, 2005, MANAGEMENT EUROPEAN, P33 KIRSCHBAUM MUF, 1995, SOIL BIOL BIOCHEM, V27, P753 KRAMER K, 2002, GLOBAL CHANGE BIOL, V8, P1 LANDSBERG JJ, 1997, FOREST ECOL MANAG, V95, P205 LASCH P, 1999, ENVIRON MODEL ASSESS, V4, P273 LEXER MJ, 2002, FOREST ECOL MANAG, V162, P53 LINDER S, 1987, POTENTIALS LIMITATIO, P180 LINDNER M, 2000, TREE PHYSIOL, V20, P299 LISKI J, 2001, CAN J FOREST RES, V31, P2004 LLOYD J, 1994, FUNCT ECOL, V8, P315 MAKELA A, 1997, FOREST SCI, V43, P7 MAKELA A, 2000, TREE PHYSIOL, V20, P289 MAKELA A, 2000, TREE PHYSIOL, V20, P347 MAKIPAA R, 1998, CHEMOSPHERE, V36, P1155 MAKIPAA R, 1998, FOREST ECOL MANAG, V108, P239 MAKIPAA R, 1999, CAN J FOREST RES, V29, P1490 MARKLUND LG, 1988, 45 SWED U AGR SCI DE, P73 MARLAND G, 1999, ENVIRON SCI POLICY, V2, P111 MASERA OR, 2003, ECOL MODEL, V164, P177 MATALA J, 2003, ECOL MODEL, V161, P95 MATALA J, 2005, UNPUB ECOLOGICAL MOD MEDLYN BE, 2001, NEW PHYTOL, V149, P247 MEDLYN BE, 2002, PLANT CELL ENVIRON, V25, P1167 MELILLO JM, 1993, NATURE, V363, P234 NABUURS GJ, 1995, CAN J FOREST RES, V25, P1157 NABUURS GJ, 2002, ECOLOGICAL INDICATOR, V1, P213 PARRY ML, 2000, ASSESSMENT POTENTIAL, P320 PETERJOHN WT, 1994, ECOL APPL, V4, P617 PUSSINEN A, 2002, FOREST ECOL MANAG, V158, P103 RAICH JW, 1992, TELLUS B, V44, P81 REINEKE LH, 1933, J AGRIC RES, V46, P627 SABATE S, 2002, FOREST ECOL MANAG, V162, P23 SANDS PJ, 2000, TREE PHYSIOL, V20, P383 SCHLAMADINGER B, 1996, FOREST ECOSYSTEMS FO, P217 SEELY B, 2002, FOREST ECOL MANAG, V169, P123 STRANDMAN H, 1993, ECOL MODEL, V70, P195 TALKKARI A, 1998, FOREST ECOL MANAG, V106, P97 THORNLEY JHM, 2000, TREE PHYSIOL, V20, P477 THORNLEY JHM, 2001, ANN BOT-LONDON, V87, P591 VONCAEMMERER S, 1981, PLANTA, V153, P376 VUCETICH JA, 2000, FOREST ECOL MANAG, V136, P135 WANG LD, 1996, CHINA NATL J NEW GAS, V2, P82 YRJOLA T, 2002, EUROPEAN FOREST I IN, V11, P1 NR 73 TC 0 J9 CLIMATIC CHANGE BP 431 EP 454 PY 2007 PD APR VL 81 IS 3 GA 142YJ UT ISI:000244686900010 ER PT J AU Maciver, DC Wheaton, E TI Tomorrow's forests: Adapting to a changing climate SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 Meteorol Serv Canada, Downsview, ON M3H 5T4, Canada. Saskatchewan Res Council, Saskatoon, SK S7N 2X8, Canada. RP Maciver, DC, Meteorol Serv Canada, 4905 Dufferin St, Downsview, ON M3H 5T4, Canada. AB Today's forests are largely viewed as a natural asset, growing in a climate envelope, which favors natural regeneration of species that have adapted and survived the variability's of past climates. However, human-induced climate change, variability and extremes are no longer a theoretical concept. It is a real issue affecting all biological systems. Atmospheric scientists, using global climate models, have developed scenarios of the future climate that far exceed the traditional climate envelope and their associated forest management practices. Not all forests are alike, nor do they share the same adaptive life cycles, feedbacks and threats. Much of tomorrow's forests will become farmed forests, managed in a pro-active, designed and adaptive envelope, to sustain multiple products, values and services. Given the life cycle of most forest species, forest management systems will need to radically adjust their limits of knowledge and adaptive strategies to initiate, enhance and plan forests in relative harmony with the future climate. Protected Areas (IUCN), Global Biosphere Reserves (UNESCO) and Smithsonian Institution sites provide an effective community-based platform to monitor changes in forest species, ecosystems and biodiversity under changing climatic conditions. CR *IPCC, 1997, IPCC ADAPTATION EXPE CARTER T, 1994, IPCC TECHNICAL GUIDE CARTER T, 1996, TECHNICAL GUIDELINES CHARLES C, 1998, NATURE, V394, P422 DALLMEIER E, 1992, LONG TERM MONITORING EBBESMEYER CC, 1990, P 7 ANN PAC CLIM WOR, V26, P115 GEDALOF Z, 1999, ADAPTATION LESSONS B, P49 GOULD SJ, 1977, EVER SINCE DARWIN HOLLING CS, 1994, EVERGLADES ECOSYSTEM, P741 MACIVER DC, 1998, ENVIRON MONIT ASSESS, V49, P177 MACIVER DC, 2000, P 14 AMS C BIOM AER SMIT B, 1999, MITIGATION ADAPTATIO, V4, P199 SMITHERS J, 1997, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V7, P129 STANKEY GH, 2001, TOO EARLY TELL TOO L WATSON RT, 1998, REGIONAL IMPACTS CLI, V1, P1 WATSON RT, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, V1, P1 WHEATON EE, 1999, MITIGATION ADAPTATIO, V4, P215 NR 17 TC 0 J9 CLIMATIC CHANGE BP 273 EP 282 PY 2005 PD MAY VL 70 IS 1-2 GA 942EG UT ISI:000230265100013 ER PT J AU Attri, SD Rathore, LS TI Simulation of impact of projected climate change on wheat in India SO INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY LA English DT Article C1 Natl Ctr Medium Range Weather Forecasting, Applicat Div, New Delhi 110003, India. Indian Meteorol Dept, New Delhi, India. RP Rathore, LS, Natl Ctr Medium Range Weather Forecasting, Applicat Div, Mausam Bhavan Complex,Lodi Rd, New Delhi 110003, India. AB The problem of global climate change due to natural processes and anthropogenic sources and its impacts on world food security in general and its regional impacts in particular have come to forefront of the scientific community in recent years. Though the uncertainty of projected climate change at the regional level is higher, it is still necessary to assess its impacts on crop productivity for formulating response strategies. Climate change scenarios projected by the middle of the current century, based on the latest studies, were created and the impacts of concurrent changes of temperature and CO2 on the growth, development and yields of wheat in northwest India were quantified using a state-of-the-art dynamic simulation model. Yield enhancements of the order of 29-37% and 16-28% under tainted and irrigated conditions respectively in different genotypes were observed under a modified climate (T-max + 1.0degreesC, T-min + 1.5degreesC, 2 x CO2). Any further increase beyond 3degreesC cancelled the beneficial impact of enhanced CO2. Adaptation measures to mitigate the potential impact of climate change included possible changes in sowing dates and genotype selection. Enhancement of sowing by 10 days in late-sown cultivars and delaying of sowing by 10 days in normally sown cultivars resulted in higher yields under a modified climate, whereas a reduction in yield was observed in the reverse strategies. Copyright (C) 2003 Royal Meteorological Society. CR ABROL YP, 1991, IMPACT GLOBAL CLIMAT ADAMS RM, 1999, AGR GLOBAL CLIMATE C AGGARWAL PK, 1994, SIMULATING EFFECTS C ATTRI SD, 1999, P NAT WORKSH DYN CRO, P201 ATTRI SD, 2000, THESIS GJU HISAR HAR ATTRI SD, 2001, MAUSAM, V52, P561 CURE JD, 1986, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V38, P127 CURRY RB, 1990, BSSG WORKSH CROP SIM DHIMAN SD, 1985, HAR AGR UNI J RES, V15, P158 GIFFORD RM, 1988, AGRICULTURE, P506 HARVEY LDD, 1992, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V21, P17 HOOGENBOOM G, 1991, T ASAE IRRIGATION DR HOUGHTON JT, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995 HOUGHTON JT, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 HUNDAL SS, 1992, ANN PROGR REPORT LAL M, 1996, CURR SCI INDIA, V71, P746 LAL M, 1998, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V89, P1 LAL M, 1998, TERR ATMOS OCEAN SCI, V9, P673 LAL M, 1999, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V93, P53 LAMB PJ, 1987, B AM METEOROL SOC, V68, P1116 MATHAUDA SS, 1994, CLIM CHANG RIC S IRR MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 MEARNS LO, 1997, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V35, P367 MERTZ B, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 MORISON JIL, 1987, STOMATAL FUNCTION, P229 PEART RM, 1989, POTENTIAL EFFECTS GL PITTOCK AB, 1994, NATURE, V371, P25 RITCHIE JT, 1998, UNDERSTANDING OPTION, P79 ROGERS HH, 1983, J ENVIRON QUAL, V12, P569 ROSENZWEIG C, 1994, INTRO122 US EPA ROSENZWEIG C, 1994, USA324 US EPA SAINI AD, 1987, INDIAN J AGR SCI, V57, P351 SINHA SK, 1991, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V16, P33 SINHA SK, 1993, INT CROP SCI, V1, P281 TSUJI GY, 1994, DSSAT V3 WARRICK RA, 1986, GREENHOUSE EFFECT CL, P393 WIGLEY TML, 1987, EUR WORKSH INT BIOCL, P3142 NR 37 TC 0 J9 INT J CLIMATOL BP 693 EP 705 PY 2003 PD MAY VL 23 IS 6 GA 683RK UT ISI:000183163200006 ER PT J AU Gaffin, SR Rosenzweig, C Xing, XS Yetman, G TI Downscaling and geo-spatial gridding of socio-economic projections from the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) SO GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS LA English DT Article C1 Columbia Univ, Ctr Climate Syst Res, New York, NY 10025 USA. CIESIN, Palisades, NY 10964 USA. RP Gaffin, SR, Columbia Univ, Ctr Climate Syst Res, 2880 Broadway, New York, NY 10025 USA. AB A database has been developed containing downscaled socio-economic scenarios of future population and GDP at country level and on a geo-referenced gridscale. It builds on the recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES), but has been created independently of that report. The SRES scenarios are derived from projected data on economic, demographic, technological and land-use changes for the 21st century in a highly aggregated form consisting of four 9 world regions. Since analysts often need socio-economic data at higher spatial resolutions that are consistent with GCM climate scenarios, we undertook linear downscaling to 2100 of population and GDP to the country level of the aggregated SRES socioeconomic data for four scenario families: A1, A2, B1, B2. Using these country-level data, we also generated geo-spatial grids at 1/4degrees resolution (similar to30 km at the equator) for population "density" (people/unit land area) and for GDP "density" (GDP/unit land area) for two time slices, 1990 and 2025. This paper provides background information for the databases, including discussion of the data sources, downscaling methodology, data omissions, discrepancies with the SRES report, problems encountered, and areas needing further work. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 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RP Demeritt, D, Univ London Kings Coll, Dept Geog, London WC2R 2LS, England. AB Drawing on results of a 2003 survey of environmental officers in every Local Authority (LA) in England and Wales, this paper assesses the reception and response of local government to the information being provided through the UK Climate Change Programme. Over three quarters of respondents (n = 184) felt they did not have access to the best information about the impacts of climate change on their areas. Although up-to-date information is freely available from a number of official Government sources, those official sources are not consulted as consistently as the media or as intensively as the internet, despite being consistently regarded as much more accurate, credible, and appropriate to LA needs. We interpret this apparent contradiction between LA officer confidence in official sources and their relatively infrequent use as a consequence, first, of technical-cognitive and practical-temporal difficulties accessing and understanding official sources of climate change information and, second, of concerns about the practical relevance of that information for the administrative functions of local government and thus for any meaningful response by LAs to climate change. Our survey recorded considerable levels of stress, cynicism, and futility among LA officials that not only complicate communication efforts but also call into question the central assumption of the UK Climate Change Programme that simply making more locally specific information about climate change impacts available will motivate appropriate action. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *DEFRA, 2001, COMM LEAD CLIM CHANG *DEP TRANSP LOC GO, 2001, LOC AUTH PARL CONST *DETR, 2000, CLIM CHANG UK PROGR *ESYS, 2000, HADL CTR REV FIN REP *IMPR DEV AG, 2002, NAT CENS LOC AUTH CO *LGA, 2002, CLIM CHANG SURV LOC *NOTT CIT COUNC, 2002, NOTT DECL *ROY COMM ENV POLL, 2002, ENV PLANN *UKCIP, 2002, UKCIP US FOR 8 9 MAY *UKCIP, 2003, CLIM CHANG LOC COMM *UKCIP, 2003, READ IMP INTR UK CLI *UKCIP, 2004, ONL AD GUID BAXTER J, 1997, T I BRIT GEOGR, V22, P505 BICKERSTAFF K, 2003, PROG HUM GEOG, V27, P45 COHEN SJ, 1990, B AM METEOROL SOC, V71, P520 CONNELLY J, 2003, POLITICS ENV THEORY DEY I, 1999, GROUNDING GROUNDED T EASTERLING WE, 1997, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V7, P337 FINK A, 1998, CONDUCT SURVEYS STEP FISCHHOFF B, 1981, ACCEPTABLE RISK HULME M, 2002, CLIMATE CHANGE SCENA IRWIN A, 1995, CITIZEN SCI STUDY PE JASANOFF S, 1998, HUMAN CHOICE CLIMATE, V1, P1 MORPHET J, 1998, BRIT ENV POLITICS EU SLOVIC P, 1993, RISK ANAL, V13, P675 WYNNE B, 1995, HDB SCI TECHNOLOGY S, P361 WYNNE B, 1996, RISK ENV MODERNITY N, P44 NR 27 TC 0 J9 GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANGE BP 325 EP 336 PY 2004 PD DEC VL 14 IS 4 GA 897NL UT ISI:000227010900004 ER PT J AU Epstein, PR TI Climate change and emerging infectious diseases SO MICROBES AND INFECTION LA English DT Review C1 Harvard Univ, Sch Med, Ctr Hlth & Global Environm, Boston, MA 02115 USA. RP Epstein, PR, Harvard Univ, Sch Med, Ctr Hlth & Global Environm, 260 Longwood Ave, Boston, MA 02115 USA. AB The ranges of infectious diseases and vectors are changing in altitude, along with shifts in plant communities and the retreat of alpine glaciers. Additionally, extreme weather events create conditions conducive to 'clusters' of insect-, rodent- and water-borne diseases. Accelerating climate change carries profound threats for public health and society. (C) 2001 Editions scientifiques et medicales Elsevier SAS. CR *CLIVAR, 1992, STUD CLIM VAR PRED *I MED, 1992, EM INF MICR THREATS *IFRC RCS, 1999, WORLD DIS REP *WHO, 1996, WORLD HLTH REP 1996 ALBRITTON DI, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 BARRY JP, 1995, SCIENCE, V267, P672 BOUMA MJ, 1997, LANCET, V350, P1435 CHECKLEY W, 2000, LANCET, V355, P442 COLWELL RR, 1996, SCIENCE, V274, P2025 DASZAK P, 2000, SCIENCE, V287, P443 DEARBORN DG, 1999, ENVIRON HEALTH PE S3, V107, P495 DIAZ HF, 1996, NATURE, V383, P152 DOBSON A, 1993, LANCET, V342, P1096 DUCHIN JS, 1994, NEW ENGL J MED, V330, P949 EASTERLING DR, 1997, SCIENCE, V277, P363 EASTERLING DR, 2000, SCIENCE, V289, P2068 ELIAS JA, 1994, QUATERNARY INSECTS T ENGELTHALER DM, 1999, EMERG INFECT DIS, V5, P87 EPSTEIN PR, 1992, AM J PREV MED, V8, P263 EPSTEIN PR, 1995, AM J PUBLIC HEALTH, V85, P168 EPSTEIN PR, 1997, BIODIVERSITY HLTH EPSTEIN PR, 1998, B AM METEOROL SOC, V79, P409 EPSTEIN PR, 1999, SCIENCE, V285, P347 EPSTEIN PR, 2000, SCI AM, V283, P50 GILL CA, 1920, INDIAN J MED RES, V8, P618 GILL CA, 1921, INDIAN J MED RES, V8, P633 HARVELL CD, 1999, SCIENCE, V285, P1505 HOUGHTON JT, 1996, INTERGOVERNMENTAL PA HURRELL JW, 2001, SCIENCE, V291, P603 IRION R, 2001, SCIENCE, V291, P1690 KARL TR, 1995, CONSEQUENCES, V1, P3 KARL TR, 1995, NATURE, V377, P217 KARL TR, 1997, SCI AM MAY, P78 KOVATS RS, 1999, WHOSDEPHE994 KRABILL W, 1999, SCIENCE, V283, P1522 KREBS CJ, 1995, SCIENCE, V269, P1112 KUMAR KK, 1999, SCIENCE, V284, P2156 LEAF A, 1989, NEW ENGL J MED, V321, P1577 LEESON HS, 1939, B ENTOMOL RES, V30, P103 LEVITUS S, 2000, SCIENCE, V287, P2225 LINDGREN E, 2000, ENVIRON HEALTH PERSP, V108, P119 LINTHICUM KJ, 1999, SCIENCE, V285, P397 MACKENZIE WR, 1994, NEW ENGL J MED, V331, P161 MANN ME, 1998, NATURE, V392, P779 MARTENS WJM, 1997, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V35, P145 MARTIN PH, 1995, AMBIO, V24, P200 MATOSSIAN MK, 1989, POISONS PAST MOLDS E MCARTHUR RH, 1972, GEOGRAPHICAL ECOLOGY MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 MCMICHAEL AJ, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE HUMAN MONATH TP, 1987, AM J TROP MED HYG, V37, S40 MOSLEYTHOMPSON E, 1997, ANN M ASS AM GEOGR F PARK JM, 1999, PEDIATRICS 3, V104, P827 PARMESAN C, 1999, NATURE, V399, P579 PASCUAL M, 2000, SCIENCE, V289, P1766 PATZ JA, 1996, JAMA-J AM MED ASSOC, V275, P217 PAULI H, 1996, WORLD RESOURCE REV, V8, P382 PETERS RL, 1991, GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANG PETIT JR, 1999, NATURE, V399, P429 REITER P, 1998, LANCET, V351, P839 REITER P, 2000, EMERG INFECT DIS, V6, P1 ROGERS DJ, 2000, SCIENCE, V289, P1763 ROSENZWEIG C, 1998, CLIMATE CHANGE GLOBA, P101 ROSENZWEIG C, 2000, IMPLICATIONS CLIMATE ROTHROCK DA, 1999, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V26, P3469 SEVERINGHAUS JP, 1998, NATURE, V391, P141 THOMPSON LG, 1993, GLOBAL PLANET CHANGE, V7, P145 TRENBERTH KE, 1996, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V23, P57 TRENBERTH KE, 1999, CONSEQUENCES, V5, P3 TUDHOPE AW, 2001, SCIENCE, V291, P1511 ZISKA LH, 2000, WORLD RESOURCE REV, V12, P449 ZUCKER JR, 1996, EMERG INFECT DIS, V2, P37 NR 72 TC 7 J9 MICROBES INFECT BP 747 EP 754 PY 2001 PD JUL VL 3 IS 9 GA 464JJ UT ISI:000170529200008 ER PT J AU Swart, RJ Robinson, JB Cohen, SJ TI Climate change and sustainable development: expanding the options SO CLIMATE POLICY LA English DT Article C1 Natl Inst Publ Hlth & Environm, IPCC Working Grp 3, RIVM, NL-3720 BA Bilthoven, Netherlands. Univ British Columbia, SDRI, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z2, Canada. Univ British Columbia, AIRG, Environm Canada, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z2, Canada. RP Swart, RJ, Natl Inst Publ Hlth & Environm, IPCC Working Grp 3, RIVM, POB 1, NL-3720 BA Bilthoven, Netherlands. AB Climate change and sustainable development have been addressed in largely separate circles in both research and policy. Nevertheless, there are strong linkages between the two in both realms. This paper focuses on the scientific linkages and discusses the opportunities they provide for integrated policy development, and the necessity to consider the risk of trade-offs. It is suggested that integration may not only provide new opportunities, but may even be a prerequisite for successfully addressing both issues. Since the feasibility of stabilising greenhouse gas concentrations is dependent on general socio-economic development paths, climate policy responses should be fully placed in the larger context of technological and socio-economic policy development rather than be viewed as an add-on to those broader policies. The arguments are supported by a range of examples for various economic sectors in the areas of both mitigation and adaptation, largely drawn from IPCC's Third Assessment Report. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *UNCED, 1992, AG 21 *UNEP, 2002, GLOB ENV OUTL, V3 *UNFCCC, 1992, UN FRAM CONV CLIM CH ABAZA H, 2002, IMPLEMENTING SUSTAIN ARNELL NW, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 BANURI T, 2001, SETTING STAGE CLIMAT BARKER T, 2001, SECTOR COSTS ANCILLA COHEN SJ, 1998, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V8, P341 GITAY H, 2001, ECOSYSTEMS THEIR GOO HARCOURT M, 1999, PLAN CANADA, V39, P12 HOURCADE JC, 2001, GLOBAL REGIONAL NATL KAUPPI P, 2001, TECHNOLOGICAL EC POT LEGGETT J, 1992, CLIMATE CHANGE 1992, P71 MARKANDYA A, 2002, CLIMATE CHANGE SUSTA MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 MCLEAN RF, 2002, COASTAL ZONES MARINE MCMICHAEL AJ, 2001, HUMAN HLTH METZ B, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 MOOMAW WR, 2001, TECHNOLOGICAL EC POT MORITA T, 2001, GREENHOUSE GAS EMISS MUNASINGHE M, 2001, INT J SUST DEV WORLD, V5, P1 NAKICENOVIC N, 2000, IPCC SPECIAL REPORT OLHOFF A, 2002, CLIMATE CHANGE SUSTA RAYNER S, 1998, HUMAN CHOICE CLIMATE RIP A, 1998, HUMAN CHOICE CLIMATE, V2, P327 ROBINSON JB, 1998, RECONCILING ECOLOGIC ROBINSON JB, 2000, INTEGRATING CLIMATE ROBINSON JB, 2001, INT J GLOBAL ENV ISS, V1, P130 ROBINSON JB, 2002, K HAMMOND LECT ENV E SHACKLEY S, 1995, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V5, P113 SHOVE E, 1998, HUMAN CHOICE CLIMATE, P271 SMIT B, 2001, ADAPTATION CLIMATE C THOMPSON M, 1998, HUMAN CHOICE CLIMATE, V1, P265 WATSON R, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 WATSON RT, 1998, PROTECTING OUR PLANE NR 35 TC 0 J9 CLIM POLICY BP S19 EP S40 PY 2003 VL 3 GA 761BN UT ISI:000187879500004 ER PT J AU Guo, QF Brandle, J Schoeneberger, M Buettner, D TI Simulating the dynamics of linear forests in Great Plains agroecosystems under changing climates SO CANADIAN JOURNAL OF FOREST RESEARCH-REVUE CANADIENNE DE RECHERCHE FORESTIERE LA English DT Article C1 Univ Nebraska, Sch Nat Resources, Lincoln, NE 68583 USA. Univ Nebraska, USDA, Natl Agroforestry Ctr, Rocky Mt Res Stn, Lincoln, NE 68583 USA. RP Guo, QF, US Geol Survey, 8711 37th St SE, Jamestown, ND 58401 USA. AB Most forest growth models are not suitable for the highly fragmented, linear (or linearly shaped) forests in the Great Plains agroecosystems (e.g., windbreaks, riparian forest buffers), where such forests are a minor but ecologically important component of the land mosaics. This study used SEEDSCAPE, a recently modified gap model designed for cultivated land mosaics in the Great Plains, to simulate the effects of climate change on the dynamics of such linear forests. We simulated the dynamics of windbreaks with different initial planting species richness and widths (light changes as the selected resulting factor) using current climate data and nested regional circulation models (RegCMs). Results indicated that (i) it took 70-80 simulation years for the linear forests to reach a steady state under both normal (present-day) and warming climates; (ii) warming climates would reduce total aboveground tree biomass and the spatial variation in biomass, but increase dominance in the linear forests, especially in the upland forests; (iii) linear forests with higher planting species richness and smaller width produced higher aboveground tree biomass per unit area; and (iv) the same species performed very differently with different climate scenarios, initial planting diversity, and forest widths. Although the model still needs further improvements (e.g., the effects of understory species should be included), the model can serve as a useful tool in modeling the succession of linear forests in human-dominated land mosaics under changing climates and may also have significant practical implications in other systems. CR *USDA NRCS, 1972, NAT ENG HDB HYDR BOTKIN DB, 1972, J ECOL, V60, P849 BOTKIN DB, 1993, FOREST DYNAMICS ECOL BUGMANN HKM, 1996, ECOLOGY, V77, P2055 BURKE IC, 1991, BIOSCIENCE, V41, P685 CHEN JQ, 1999, BIOSCIENCE, V49, P288 EASTERLING WE, 1996, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V80, P1 EASTERLING WE, 2001, ECOL MODEL, V140, P163 GIORGI F, 1993, MON WEATHER REV, V121, P2794 GIORGI F, 1993, MON WEATHER REV, V121, P2814 GIORGI F, 1998, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V40, P457 GUERTIN DS, 1997, BIOSCIENCE, V47, P287 GUO QF, 2000, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V10, P289 GUO QF, 2003, J VEG SCI, V14, P121 HANSON JS, 1990, ECOL MODEL, V49, P277 HUSTON M, 1987, AM NAT, V130, P168 JOHNSON WC, 1994, ECOL MONOGR, V64, P45 KNIGHT CL, 1994, LANDSCAPE ECOL, V9, P117 KORT J, 1988, AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON, V22, P165 KUPFER JA, 1993, PHYSICAL GEOGR, V14, P154 LEHMAN CL, 2000, AM NAT, V156, P534 LIU J, 1995, FOR ECOL MANAG, V75, P157 LIU JG, 1998, ECOL MODEL, V106, P177 MALANSON GP, 1996, ECOL MODEL, V87, P91 MATLACK GR, 1994, J ECOL, V82, P113 MCCANN KS, 2000, NATURE, V405, P228 OKUBO A, 1989, ECOLOGY, V70, P329 PRENTICE IC, 1993, ECOL MODEL, V65, P51 ROSENBERG DK, 1997, BIOSCIENCE, V47, P677 SHUGART HH, 1984, THEORY FOREST DYNAMI SHUGART HH, 1992, ANNU REV ECOL SYST, V23, P15 SOLOMON AM, 1986, OECOLOGIA, V68, P567 WATTERSON IG, 1995, AUST METEOROL MAG, V44, P111 NR 33 TC 0 J9 CAN J FOREST RES BP 2564 EP 2572 PY 2004 PD DEC VL 34 IS 12 GA 891QO UT ISI:000226595800016 ER PT J AU Thomson, AM Brown, RA Rosenberg, NJ Izaurralde, RC Benson, V TI Climate change impacts for the conterminous USA: An integrated assessment - Part 3. Dryland production of grain and forage crops SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 Joint Global Change Res Inst, College Pk, MD 20740 USA. Independent Project Anal, Reston, VA 20190 USA. Univ Missouri, Food & Agr Policy Res Inst, Columbia, MO 65201 USA. RP Thomson, AM, Joint Global Change Res Inst, 8400 Baltimore Ave,Suite 201, College Pk, MD 20740 USA. AB Here we simulate dryland agriculture in the United States in order to assess potential future agricultural production under a set of general circulation model (GCM)-based climate change scenarios. The total national production of three major grain crops - corn, soybeans, and winter wheat - and two forage crops - alfalfa and clover hay - is calculated for the actual present day core production area (CPA) of each of these crops. In general, higher global mean temperature (GMT) reduces production and higher atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration ([CO2]) increases production. Depending on the climatic change scenarios employed overall national production of the crops studied changes by up to plus or minus 25% from present-day levels. Impacts are more significant regionally, with crop production varying by greater than +/-50% from baseline levels. Analysis of currently possible production areas (CPPAs) for each crop indicates that the regions most likely to be affected by climate change are those on the margins of the areas in which they are currently grown. Crop yield variability was found to be primarily influenced by local weather and geographic features rather than by large-scale changes in climate patterns and atmospheric composition. Future US agronomic potential will be significantly affected by the changes in climate projected here. The nature of the crop response will depend primarily on to what extent precipitation patterns change and also on the degree of warming experienced. CR *NAST, 2000, CLIM CHANG IMP US PO *USDA NAT AGR STAT, 1997, AGR ATL US *USDA NAT AGR STAT, 2001, PUBL EST DAT YEARS 1 *WORLD AGR OUTL BO, 1994, MAJ WORLD CROP AR CL ADAMS RM, 1998, CLIMATE CHANGE US AG ALLEN LH, 1998, AGRON J, V90, P375 BLASING TJ, 1982, ORNL PUBLICATION, V2134 BOWES G, 1993, ANNU REV PLANT PHYS, V44, P309 BROWN RA, 1999, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V41, P73 BROWN RA, 1999, IMPACT CLIMATE CHANG GITAY H, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, P235 HOUGHTON JT, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 LUO QY, 1999, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V43, P729 MAKINO A, 1999, PLANT CELL PHYSIOL, V40, P999 MAROCO JP, 1999, PLANTA, V210, P115 MAVROMATIS T, 1998, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V91, P51 NEWMAN JE, 1982, IMPACTS RISING CAR 8, V2 PARRY ML, 1988, IMPACT CLIMATE VARIA PASSIOURA JB, 1996, AGRON J, V88, P690 REILLY JM, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, P429 REILLY JM, 2001, AGR POTENTIAL CONSEQ REILLY JM, 1999, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V43, P645 REILLY JM, 1999, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V43, P745 ROUNSEVELL MDA, 1999, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V43, P683 SMITH SD, 2000, NATURE, V408, P79 WILLIAMS JR, 1995, COMPUTER MODELS WATE, P909 NR 26 TC 3 J9 CLIMATIC CHANGE BP 43 EP 65 PY 2005 PD MAR VL 69 IS 1 GA 910UF UT ISI:000227957000004 ER PT J AU Wahba, M Hope, C TI The marginal impact of carbon dioxide under two scenarios of future emissions SO ENERGY POLICY LA English DT Article C1 Univ Toronto, Dept Civil Engn, Toronto, ON M5S 1A4, Canada. Univ Cambridge, Judge Inst Management, Management Studies Tripos & Diploma Programme, Cambridge CB2 1AG, England. RP Wahba, M, Univ Toronto, Dept Civil Engn, 35 St George St, Toronto, ON M5S 1A4, Canada. AB This paper uses the PAGE2002 model to calculate the marginal impact of carbon dioxide (CO2) under the A2 and B2 marker scenarios of the IPCC, and its distribution across regions, sectors, and over time. PAGE2002 considers the possibility of large-scale discontinuities, a major concern in the IPCC TAR. PAGE2002 estimates the mean value of the marginal impact for CO2 under scenario A2 to be $19 per tonne of carbon (tC), equivalent to $5 per tonne Of CO2. The 95% and 5% values for the marginal impact are $4/tC and $5/tC. The mean value under scenario B2 is estimated to be $14/tC, with 95% and 5% points as $41/tC and $3/tC, respectively. The marginal impact is sensitive to the pure rate of time preference, and doubles for a 1% reduction from 3% to 2%. Additionally, adaptation policy affects the marginal impact estimates; they increase by 50% if no adaptation policy is implemented. Benefits from reductions in greenhouse gas emissions will affect the globe as a whole, but with various regions being more affected than others. Developing countries would receive about 50% of the benefit, whereas the European Union's benefits would be about 7%; only about 2% of the benefits would be felt in the USA. Benefits from an immediate reduction in CO2 emissions peak a round the year 2100. About 60% of the benefits from reducing greenhouse gas emissions are non-economic, with economic and large-scale discontinuities being about 20% each. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 *IPCC, 2001, CLIM CHANG 2001 MIT BEIN P, 1999, P 3 BIENN C CAN SOC CLARKSON R, 2002, 140 DEP ENV FOOD RUR CLINE W, 1992, EC GLOBAL WARMING CLINE W, 1995, PRICING CARBON DIOXI EYRE N, 1997, GLOBAL WARMING DAMAG EYRE N, 1999, EXTERNALITIES ENERGY, V7, P101 HOPE C, IN PRESS MARGINAL IM HOPE C, 1993, ENERG POLICY, V21, P327 HOPE C, 2005, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V68, P21 MORITA T, 1999, EMISSIONS SCENARIO D NEWELL R, 2001, DISCOUNTING BENEFITS NORDHAUS WD, 1991, ECON J, V101, P920 NORDHAUS WD, 1992, SCIENCE, V258, P1315 PEARCE DW, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, P179 PLAMBECK E, 1995, 1994199514 U CAMBR J PLAMBECK EL, 1996, ENERG POLICY, V24, P783 PLAMBECK EL, 1997, ENERG ECON, V19, P77 SHOGREN T, 2000, 25 RES FUT TOL R, FNU19 HAMB U CTR MAR TOL R, 2000, D0008 VRIJ U I ENV S TOL R, 2001, SCG4 HAMB U RES UN S TOL R, 2002, AEA TECHNOLOGY QUANT TOL RSJ, 1999, ENERGY J, V20, P61 TOL RSJ, 2005, ENERG POLICY, V33, P2064 WAHBA M, 2003, THESIS CAMBRIDGE U NR 27 TC 0 J9 ENERG POLICY BP 3305 EP 3316 PY 2006 PD NOV VL 34 IS 17 GA 100CG UT ISI:000241644200060 ER PT J AU Olsson, P Folke, C TI Local ecological knowledge and institutional dynamics for ecosystem management: A study of Lake Racken Watershed, Sweden SO ECOSYSTEMS LA English DT Article C1 Stockholm Univ, Dept Syst Ecol, SE-10691 Stockholm, Sweden. Stockholm Univ, Ctr Res Nat Resources & Environm, SE-10691 Stockholm, Sweden. RP Olsson, P, Stockholm Univ, Dept Syst Ecol, SE-10691 Stockholm, Sweden. AB The sustainable use of resources requires that management practices and institutions take into account the dynamics of the ecosystem. In this paper, we explore the role of local ecological knowledge and show how it is used in management practices by a local fishing association in a contemporary rural Swedish community. We focus on the local management of crapfish, a common-pool resource, and also address the way crapfish management is linked to institutions at different levels of Swedish society, Methods from the social sciences were used for information gathering, and the results were analyzed within the framework of esosystem management. We found that the practices of local fishing association resemble an ecosystem approach to crayfish management. Our results indicate that local users have substantial knowledge of resource and ecosystem dynamics from the level of the individual crayfish to that of the watershed, as reflected in a variety of interrelated management practices embedded in and influenced by institutions at several levels. We propose that this policy of monitoring at several levels simultaneously, together with the interpretation of a bundle of indicators and associated management responses, enhances the possibility of building ecological resilience into the watershed. Furthermore, we found that flexibility and adaptation are required to avoid command-and-control pathways of resource management. We were able to trace the development of the local fishing association as a response to crisis, followed by the creation of an opportunity for reorganization and the recognition of slow ecosystem structuring variables, and also to define the role of knowledgeable individuals in the whole process. We discuss the key roles of adaptive capacity, institutional learning, and institutional memory for successful ecosystem management and conclude that scientific adaptive management could benefit from a more explicit collaboration with flexible community-based systems of resource management for the implementation of policies as experiments. 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No Savannah Project, Garoua, Cameroon. RP Pamo, ET, Univ Dschang, FASA Dept Anim Sci, POB 222, Dschang, Cameroon. AB Elephant protection in Northern Cameroon has led to serious concern over their impact on vegetation. The basic problems are related to the change in vegetation and land-use patterns. In addition, a dam was built to store water for a rice irrigation project in 1979 in Northern Cameroon. This dam prevents the normal flooding of the dry season grazing land for wildlife within and around the two major National Parks of the region and has led to a change in vegetation composition and structure. The habitat of an increased elephant population was reduced, along with a change in their migration patterns and their home range. This resulted in an adaptation of their feeding habits and competition for space with humans. The largest elephant population of the African Sahelo-Soudanian region has profoundly affected the vegetation of the Northern Cameroon during the past 20 years. From the various works carried out in the region it appears that the amount of seriously browsed trees increased as well as the damage indicted on the youngest trees. Although discussion on how to deal with elephant impact on vegetation and the risk of irreversible habitat change is being overshadowed in some areas by its impact on human population, the problem remains a key issue and must be faced if sustained environmental management at the turn of the millennium is to be addressed. Degradation may occur when productivity of these unstable communities has crossed a critical threshold that prevents its resiliency over a long term. Knowledge of the dynamics of this Sahelian vegetation does not permit to critically address the issue now in this fragile environment. (C) 2001 Academic Press. CR *SPTEN, 1986, RAP ANN ACT AV PROJ BARNES RFW, 1982, AFR J ECOL, V20, P123 BARNES RFW, 1983, BIOL CONSERV, V26, P127 CRAIG GC, 1992, ELEPHANT MANAGEMENT, P81 DEBIE S, 1991, THESIS AGR U WAGENIN DOUGLASHAMILTON I, 1987, ORYX, V21 DUBLIN HT, 1990, OECOLOGIA, V82, P283 EIJS AWM, 1987, SERIE ENV DEV NORD C ESSER JD, 1979, TERRE VIE, V33, P3 FIELD CR, 1971, E AFR WILDL J, V9, P99 FLIZOT P, 1962, RESERVES FAUNE CAMER FOWLER CW, 1973, J WILDLIFE MANAGE, V37, P513 FRY CH, 1970, REPORT INT UNION CON KABIGUMILA J, 1993, AFR J ECOL, V31, P156 LAWS RM, 1970, OIKOS, V21, P1 LAWS RM, 1975, ELEPHANTS THEIR HABI LINDSAY K, 1993, PACHYDERM, V16, P34 MAHAMAT H, 1991, MEMOIRE ETUDES MCCULLAGH KG, 1973, NATURE, V242, P267 MERZ G, 1986, AFR J ECOL, V24, P61 MOSS CJ, 1992, NCRR EL REPR S MAY 1 OIJEN CHJ, 1986, YAERES RELEVES DESCR OKULA JP, 1986, AFR J ECOL, V24, P1 PAMO ET, 1998, J ARID ENVIRON, V39, P179 PYKE GH, 1977, Q REV BIOL, V52, P137 ROTH HH, 1991, MAMMALIA, V55, P489 RUGGIERO RG, 1992, AFR J ECOL, V30, P137 RUGGIERO RG, 1992, AFR J ECOL, V30, P137 STEEHOUWER G, 1988, SERIE ENV DEV NORD C SUKUMAR R, 1990, J TROP ECOL, V6, P33 TCHAMBA MN, 1992, MAMMALIA, V92, P35 TCHAMBA MN, 1993, AFR J ECOL, V31, P165 TCHAMBA MN, 1993, PACHYDERM, V16, P66 TCHAMBA MN, 1995, AFR J ECOL, V33, P184 TCHAMBA MN, 1995, AFR J ECOL, V33, P335 TCHAMBA MN, 1995, AFR J ECOL, V33, P366 THOULESS C, 1992, EMERGENCY EVALUATION VANDERZON APM, 1986, PANDA, V22, P121 VANWIJNGAARDEN W, 1985, THESIS AGR U WAGENIN NR 39 TC 0 J9 J ARID ENVIRON BP 245 EP 253 PY 2001 PD JUL VL 48 IS 3 GA 447PA UT ISI:000169580600001 ER PT J AU AUSUBEL, JH TI TECHNICAL PROGRESS AND CLIMATIC-CHANGE SO ENERGY POLICY LA English DT Article RP AUSUBEL, JH, ROCKEFELLER UNIV,PROGRAM HUMAN ENVIRONM,1230 YORK AVE,NR 403,NEW YORK,NY 10021. AB The global warming debate has neglected and thus underestimated the importance of technical change in considering reduction in greenhouse gases and adaptation to climate change, Relevant quantitative cases of long-run technical change during the past 100 years are presented in computing, communications, transport, energy, and agriculture, A noteworthy technological trajectory is that of decarbonization, or decreasing carbon intensity of primary energy, If human societies have not yet reached the end of the history of technology, the cost structure for mitigation and adaptation changes could be cheap. CR *INT PAN CLIM CHAN, 1990, CLIM CHANG IPCC SCI *INT PAN CLIM CHAN, 1992, CLIM CHANG 1992 SUPP ANGELUCCI E, 1977, PRACTICAL GUIDE WORL AUSUBEL JH, 1988, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V12, P245 CERF C, 1984, EXPERTS SPEAK DEFINI DARMSTAEDTER L, 1908, HDB GESCHICHTE NATUR GREY CG, 1969, JANES ALL WORLDS AIR GRUBLER A, 1990, RISE FALL INFRASTRUC LLOYD S, 1993, SCIENCE, V261, P1569 LOTKA AJ, 1924, ELEMENTS PHYSICAL BI MARCHETTI C, 1979, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V15, P79 MARCHETTI C, 1980, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V18, P267 MENSCH G, 1979, STALEMATE TECHNOLOGY NORDHAUS WD, 1992, SCIENCE, V258, P1315 PATEL CKN, 1987, LASESR INVENTION APP STARR C, 1973, SCIENCE, V182, P358 TAYLOR JWR, 1984, JANES ALL WORLD AIRC WAGGONER PE, 1994, MUCH LAND CAN 10 BIL WORLTON J, 1988, SOME PATTERNS TECHNO NR 19 TC 4 J9 ENERG POLICY BP 411 EP 416 PY 1995 PD APR-MAY VL 23 IS 4-5 GA RT375 UT ISI:A1995RT37500016 ER PT J AU Gelcich, S Edwards-Jones, G Kaiser, MJ Castilla, JC TI Co-management policy can reduce resilience in traditionally managed marine ecosystems SO ECOSYSTEMS LA English DT Article C1 Univ Coll N Wales, Sch Agr & Forest Sci, Bangor LL57 2UW, Gwynedd, Wales. Univ Wales, Sch Ocean Sci, Bangor LL59 5AB, Gwynedd, Wales. Pontificia Univ Catolica Chile, Fac Ciencias Biol, Ctr Estudios Avanzados Ecol & Biodiversidad, Santiago, Chile. RP Gelcich, S, Univ Coll N Wales, Sch Agr & Forest Sci, Bangor LL57 2UW, Gwynedd, Wales. AB Best-practice environmental policy often suggests co-management of marine resources as a means of achieving sustainable development. Here we consider the impacts of superimposing co-management policy, in the form of territorial user rights for fishers over an existing traditional community-based natural-resource management system in Chile. We consider a broad definition of co-management that includes a spectrum of arrangements between governments and user groups described by different levels of devolution of power. We used participatory rural appraisal techniques and questionnaires to understand the mechanisms that underpin the traditional management system for the bull-kelp "cochayuyo" (Durvillaea antarctica). Traditional management was based on the allocation of informal access rights through a lottery system. This system was controlled by a complex web of traditional institutions that were shown to be successful in terms of equity and resilience. Using a similar approach, we analyzed the effects of superimposing a government-led co-management policy into this traditional system. Two major effects of the new policy were encountered. First, traditional institutions were weakened, which had negative effects on the levels of trust within the community and intensified conflict among users. Second, the management system's adaptive capacity was reduced, thereby jeopardizing the ecosystem's resilience. Our results suggest that the devolution of power to this kind of fisher community still has not reached the level required for fishers to legally address the local deficiencies of the Chilean co-management policy. Additionally, legal adjustments must be made to accommodate traditionally managed ecosystems that offer benefits comparable to those mandated under the formal policy. A fuller understanding of the interactions between co-management and traditional institutions can help us to identify ways to promote resilience and facilitate equal access by mitigating the potential negative effects of co-management policy and informing its future implementation. CR *EST MAR, 2003, EST SIT BAS PLAN MAN *SECPLAC, ILL MUN NAV *SUBP SUBS PESC VA, 2004, CONC AR MAN REC BENT AGRAWAL A, 1999, WORLD DEV, V27, P629 AGRAWAL A, 2001, WORLD DEV, V29, P1649 ASWANI S, 2004, ENVIRON CONSERV, V31, P69 BERKES F, 2003, NAVIGATING SOCIAL EC, V1, P1 BUSTAMANTE RH, 1990, BIOL CONSERV, V52, P205 CARLSSON L, 2003, NAVIGATING SOCIAL EC, P161 CASTILLA JC, IN PRESS REV FISH BI CASTILLA JC, 1989, MAR ECOL-PROG SER, V50, P203 CASTILLA JC, 1994, ECOLOGY INT B, V21, P47 CASTILLA JC, 1998, ECOL APPL, V8, P124 CASTILLA JC, 2000, J EXP MAR BIOL ECOL, V250, P3 CASTILLA JC, 2001, REV FISH BIOL FISHER, V11, P1 CASTILLO A, 2005, ECOL APPL, V15, P745 CLARKE K, 2001, CHANGE MARINE COMMUN CLARKE KR, 1993, AUST J ECOL, V18, P117 CLEAVER F, 2000, DEV CHANGE, V31, P361 COLDING J, 2003, NAVIGATING SOCIAL EC, P163 DASILVA PP, 2004, MAR POLICY, V28, P419 EDWARDSJONES G, 2001, OUTLOOK AGR, V30, P129 FANNING L, 2000, OCEAN YB, V14, P1 FOLKE C, 2003, NAVIGATING SOCIAL EC, P352 GARIBALDI A, 2004, ECOLOGY SOC, V9, P1 GELCICH S, 2005, CONSERV BIOL, V19, P865 GELCICH S, 2005, SOC NATUR RESOUR, V18, P377 GUILLOTREAU P, 1994, 71 U PORTSM CTR EC M GUNDERSON LH, 2000, ANNU REV ECOL SYST, V31, P425 HELTBERG R, 2001, ENVIRON DEV ECON 2, V6, P183 HOLLING CS, 1996, RIGHTS NATURE ECOLOG JOHANNES RE, 2002, ANNU REV ECOL SYST, V33, P317 JOHNSON C, 2001, DEV CHANGE, V32, P951 LEACH M, 1999, WORLD DEV, V27, P225 LOBE K, 2004, MAR POLICY, V28, P271 MCCAY BJ, 1995, OCEAN COAST MANAGE, V28, P3 MELTZOFF SK, 2002, COAST MANAGE, V30, P85 MOSSE D, 1994, DEV CHANGE, V25, P497 MOSSE D, 2004, DEV CHANGE, V35, P639 NORTH D, 1990, I I CHANGE EC PERFOR OLSSON P, 2001, ECOSYSTEMS, V4, P85 OSTROM E, 1990, GOVERNING COMMONS EV PAULY D, 2003, SCIENCE, V302, P1359 POMEROY RS, 1997, MAR POLICY, V21, P465 PRETTY J, 2001, WORLD DEV, V29, P209 SANTELICES B, 1980, MAR BIOL, V59, P119 SEIXAS CS, 2003, NAVIGATING SOCIAL EC, P271 SEN S, 1996, MAR POLICY, V20, P357 WATSON EE, 2003, DEV CHANGE, V34, P287 NR 49 TC 0 J9 ECOSYSTEMS BP 951 EP 966 PY 2006 PD SEP VL 9 IS 6 GA 097MY UT ISI:000241453300007 ER PT J AU Deng, XP Shan, L Inanaga, S Inoue, M TI Water-saving approaches for improving wheat production SO JOURNAL OF THE SCIENCE OF FOOD AND AGRICULTURE LA English DT Article C1 Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Soil & Water Conservat, State Key Lab Soil Eros & Dryland Farming Loess P, Shaanxi 712100, Peoples R China. NW Sci Tech Univ Agr, Shaanxi 712100, Peoples R China. Tottori Univ, Arid Land Res Ctr, Tottori 680, Japan. RP Deng, XP, Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Soil & Water Conservat, State Key Lab Soil Eros & Dryland Farming Loess P, Shaanxi 712100, Peoples R China. AB The greatest fear of global climate change is drought. World-wide, 61% of countries receive rainfall of less than 500 mm annually; domestication of wheat first occurred in such a semiarid region of southwestern Asia, and it seems that wheat foods originally came from dryland gardens. Wheat plants respond to drought through morphological, physiological and metabolic modifications in all plant parts. At the cellular level, plant responses to water deficit may result from cell damage, whereas other responses may correspond to adaptive processes. Although a large number of drought-induced genes have been identified in a wide range of wheat varieties, a molecular basis for wheat plant tolerance to water stress remains far from being completely understood. The rapid translocation of abscissic acid (ABA) in shoots via xylem flux, and the increase of ABA concentration in wheat plant parts cot-relate with the major physiological changes that occur during plant response to drought. It is widely accepted that ABA mediates general adaptive responses to drought. For a relatively determinate target stress environment, and with stable genotype x environment interaction, the probability for achieving progress is high. This approach will be possible only after we learn more about the physiology and genetics of wheat plant responses to water stress and their interactions. The difficulties encountered by molecular biologists in attempting to improve crop drought tolerance are due to our ignorance in agronomy and crop physiology and not to lack of knowledge or technical expertise in molecular biology. (c) 2005 Society of Chemical Industry. CR ARTLIP TS, 1997, PLANT MOL BIOL, V33, P61 BLUM A, 1985, CRC CRIT R PLANT SCI, V2, P199 BLUM A, 1991, EUPHYTICA, V54, P111 BLUM A, 1993, INT CROP SCI, V1, P343 BRENGLE KG, 1982, PRINCIPLES PRACTICES CHAUHAN YS, 1993, EXP AGR, V29, P233 CHAVES MM, 2003, FUNCT PLANT BIOL, V30, P239 CLOSE TJ, 1996, PHYSIOL PLANTARUM, V97, P795 CONDON AG, 2002, CROP SCI, V42, P122 CONDON AG, 2002, CROP SCI, V42, P122 DAVIES WJ, 2002, NEW PHYTOL, V153, P449 DENG XP, 2000, PHOTOSYNTHETICA, V38, P187 DENG XP, 2000, SOIL EROSION DRYLAND, P15 DENG XP, 2002, CEREAL RES COMMUN, V30, P125 DENG XP, 2002, P 12 INT SOIL CONS O, V3, P349 DENG XP, 2003, AGR SCI CHINA, V2, P35 DENNIS P, 1992, AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON, V40, P95 DRY PR, 1996, P AUSTR WINE IND TEC, V9, P126 DURE L, 1989, PLANT MOL BIOL, V12, P475 ENTZ MH, 1991, AGRON J, V83, P527 EVANS LT, 1976, PHIL TRANS ROY SOC L, V275, P71 EVANS LT, 1993, CROP EVOLUTION ADAPT FEIL B, 1992, PLANT BREEDING, V108, P1 FISCHER RA, 1978, ANNU REV PLANT PHYS, V29, P277 FISCHER RA, 1985, J AGR SCI, V105, P447 FRED P, 1991, NEW SCI, V129, P34 GALVEZ AF, 1993, PLANT PHYSIOL, V103, P257 GAMO M, 1999, J ARID LAND STUDIES, V1, P9 GILL BS, 1991, GENOME, V34, P830 GREGORY SM, 2000, AGRON J, V92, P1104 HARLAN J, 1987, HDB PLANT SCI AGR, P15 HARRIS DR, 1990, BIOL J LINN SOC, V39, P7 INGRAM J, 1996, ANNU REV PLANT PHYS, V47, P377 JAMA BA, 1996, PLANT SOIL, V179, P275 JAMES RF, 2001, CROP SCI, V41, P759 JENNINGS PR, 1977, ECON BOT, V31, P51 JONES HG, 1998, J EXP BOT, V49, P387 KANG SZ, 2000, AGR WATER MANAGE, V45, P267 KARAMANOS AJ, 1999, CROP SCI, V39, P1792 KIMBER G, 1987, AGRONOMY MONOGRAPH, V13 KORENTAJER L, 1988, AGRON J, V80, P977 LABHILILI M, 1995, PLANT SCI, V112, P219 LAFOND GP, 1986, CROP SCI, V26, P563 LIANG ZS, 2002, BOT BULL ACAD SINICA, V43, P187 LOGGINI B, 1999, PLANT PHYSIOL, V119, P1091 LUDLOW MM, 1980, ADAPTATION PLANTS WA, P16 LUDLOW MM, 1990, ADV AGRON, V43, P107 MARY JG, 2001, CROP SCI, V41, P327 MOLDENHAUER WC, 1959, AGRON J, V51, P39 MONTEITH JL, 1990, CHALLENGES DRYLAND A, P349 MORGAN JM, 1995, FIELD CROP RES, V40, P143 MUNNS R, 1993, PLANT CELL ENVIRON, V16, P867 OUVRARD O, 1996, PLANT MOL BIOL, V31, P819 PECETTI L, 1992, GENETIC RESOURCES CR, V39, P97 PELAH D, 1997, PHYSIOL PLANTARUM, V99, P153 PHILIPPE R, 2000, PLANT CELL, V12, P707 REBETZKE GJ, 1999, AUST J AGR RES, V50, P291 REGGIANI R, 1993, J PLANT PHYSIOL, V141, P136 REYNOLDS MP, 1999, CROP SCI, V39, P1611 RICHARDS RA, 2002, CROP SCI, V42, P111 ROSS PJ, 1985, AUST J SOIL RES, V23, P493 SHAN L, 2002, AGR SCI CHINA, V1, P934 SIDDIQUE MRB, 2000, BOT BULL ACAD SINICA, V41, P35 TALBERT LE, 1991, AM J BOT, V78, P340 TRETHOWAN RM, 2000, MOL APPROACHES GENET, P45 UNGER PW, 1992, SOIL SCI SOC AM J, V56, P283 VILLARREAL RL, 1999, REGIONAL WHEAT WORKS, P542 WILLIAMS JR, 1983, J SOIL WATER CONSERV, V38, P381 YADAV RC, 1974, INDIAN J AGR SCI, V44, P241 ZEEVAART JAD, 1988, ANNU REV PLANT PHYS, V39, P439 NR 70 TC 2 J9 J SCI FOOD AGR BP 1379 EP 1388 PY 2005 PD JUN VL 85 IS 8 GA 929OI UT ISI:000229355000020 ER PT J AU D'haeseleer, WD TI The importance of fusion development towards a future energy source SO FUSION ENGINEERING AND DESIGN LA English DT Article C1 Univ Louvain, Energy Inst, Appl Mech & Energy Convers, B-3001 Louvain, Belgium. RP D'haeseleer, WD, Univ Louvain, Energy Inst, Appl Mech & Energy Convers, Celestijnenlaan 300A, B-3001 Louvain, Belgium. AB In the light of major uncertainties in the long-term energy provision, the sensible approach with regard to energy-conversion technologies is not an 'either-or', but an 'and-and' philosophy. All three long-term carbon-free options, renewables, fission and fusion, should be further explored and developed so that future generations can choose the composition of an appropriate energy source basket. It would be irresponsible towards future generations not to pursue a potentially successful energy source such as nuclear fusion. Indeed, future fusion power plants have good prospects to qualify as economic and environmentally benign base-load electricity generation plants. The progress of fusion development has been remarkable; all available techno-scientific information shows that steady and significant progress is being made towards a successful reactor. The slow (but steady) pace of progress, however, is linked with the need for large and expensive experimental devices. In the present context of liberalizing energy markets, whereby most actors focus on short time survival and profit making, and the indifference by the public at large towards science and technology development, it is not obvious to convince the decision makers to invest in a long-term energy research strategy. Nevertheless, political decisiveness is required to keep the time schedule to establish commercial fusion by the middle of the century. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. CR *BP, 2002, BP STAT REV WORLD JU *CEU, 1996, DIR GEN EN DG 18 EN *CEU, 2001, EUR COMM GREEN PAP E *EAG FU, 2000, OP EAG FU EUR FUS RE *IAEA, 1998, ITER EDA DOCUMENTATI, V16 *IAEA, 2001, ITER EDA DOCUMENTATI, V18 *IAEA, 2001, ITER EDA DOCUMENTATI, V22 *IAEA, 2001, ITER EDA ITER EDA DO, V21 *IAEA, 2002, ITER EDA DOCUMENTATI, V24 *IEA, 2001, WORLD EN OUTL 2000 *SHELL INT, 1996, EV WORLDS EN SYST *UNDP, 2000, WORLD EN ASS EN CHAL ATSON RT, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995 BRUCE JP, 1995, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995 CRISWELL DR, 2002, INNOVATIVE ENERGY ST, P345 DHAESELEER W, 1994, BAFU9401 EMTZ B, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 HAESELEER WD, 1999, PLASMA PHYS CONTROLL, V41, B25 HOUGHTON JT, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995 HOUGHTON JT, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 KING D, 2001, CONCLUSIONS FUSION F MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 NAKICENOVIC N, 1998, GLOBAL ENERGY PERSPE SUESS E, 1999, SCI AM, V281, P53 NR 24 TC 0 J9 FUSION ENG DES BP 3 EP 15 PY 2003 PD SEP VL 66-8 GA 726UE UT ISI:000185617900002 ER PT J AU Wolanski, E De'ath, G TI Predicting the impact of present and future human land-use on the Great Barrier Reef SO ESTUARINE COASTAL AND SHELF SCIENCE LA English DT Article C1 AIMS, Townsville, Qld 4810, Australia. RP Wolanski, E, AIMS, PMB 3, Townsville, Qld 4810, Australia. AB An ecohydrologic model, verified against field data, suggests that land-use has contributed to degradation of the health of the Great Barrier Reef and to an increased frequency and intensity of crown-of-thorns starfish infestations. The model also predicts that the health of the Great Barrier Reef will significantly worsen by the year 2050 as a result of global warming. However, the model also suggests that much-improved land-use practices will enable some regions of the Great Barrier Reef to recover, even with global warming. Finally, the model suggests that, if global warming proceeds unchecked, biological adaptation is necessary to avoid a collapse of the Great Barrier Reef health by the year 2100. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *IPCC, 2001, CONTR WORK GROUPS 1 BERKELMANS R, 2002, MAR ECOL-PROG SER, V229, P73 BERKELMANS R, 2004, CORAL REEFS, V23, P74 BRODIE J, 2005, MAR POLLUT BULL, V51, P266 DONE T, 2003, GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANG LEE TN, 1992, CONT SHELF RES, V12, P971 SCANDOL JP, 1992, AUSTR J MARINE FRESH, V43, P583 WOLANSKI E, 1986, ANN GEOPHYS B-TERR P, V4, P425 WOLANSKI E, 2001, OCEANOGRAPHIC PROCES WOLANSKI E, 2004, J MARINE SYST, V46, P133 WOLANSKI E, 2004, WETLANDS ECOLOGY MAN, V12, P235 NR 11 TC 0 J9 ESTUAR COAST SHELF SCI BP 504 EP 508 PY 2005 PD AUG VL 64 IS 2-3 GA 950QV UT ISI:000230873200035 ER PT J AU Jones, RN TI Incorporating agency into climate change risk assessments - An editorial comment SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Editorial Material C1 CSIRO Atmospher Res, Aspendale, Vic 3195, Australia. RP Jones, RN, CSIRO Atmospher Res, Aspendale, Vic 3195, Australia. AB Human agency has been viewed as a problem for climate change assessments because of its contribution to uncertainty. In this editorial, I outline the advantages of agency in managing climate change risks, describing how those advantages can be placed within a probabilistic framework. 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SO CURRENT ANTHROPOLOGY LA English DT Review C1 Stanford Univ, Dept Biol Sci, Stanford, CA 94305 USA. RP Ehrlich, PR, Stanford Univ, Dept Biol Sci, Stanford, CA 94305 USA. AB A central theme of the flood of literature in recent years in "evolutionary psychology" and "behavioral genetics" is that much or even most human behavior has been programmed into the human genome by natural selection. We show that this conclusion is without basis. Evolutionary psychology is a series of "just-so" stories rooted in part in the erroneous notion that human beings during the Pleistocene all lived in the same environment of evolutionary adaptation. Behavioral genetics is based on a confusion of the information contained in a technical statistic called "heritability" with the colloquial meaning of the term, exacerbated by oversimplification of statistical models for the behavioral similarity of twins. In fact, information from twin studies, cross-fostering, sexual behavior, and the Human Genome Project makes it abundantly clear that most interesting aspects of the human behavioral phenome are programmed into the brain by the environment. The general confusion created by the genetic determinists has had and will continue to have unfortunate effects on public policy. 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Univ Southampton, Southampton, Hants, England. RP Adger, WN, Univ E Anglia, Tyndall Ctr Climate Change Res, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. 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SO PHILOSOPHICAL TRANSACTIONS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY OF LONDON SERIES A-MATHEMATICAL PHYSICAL AND ENGINEERING SCIENCES LA English DT Article C1 Univ E Anglia, Tyndall Ctr Climate Change Res, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. Univ E Anglia, Sch Environm Sci, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. RP Hulme, M, Univ E Anglia, Tyndall Ctr Climate Change Res, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. AB Consideration of abrupt climate change has generally been incorporated neither in analyses of climate-change impacts nor in the design of climate adaptation strategies. Yet the possibility of abrupt climate change triggered by human perturbation of the climate system is used to support the position of both those who urge stronger and earlier mitigative action than is currently being contemplated and those who argue that the unknowns in the Earth system are too large to justify such early action. This paper explores the question of abrupt climate change in terms of its potential implications for society, focusing on the UK and northwest Europe in particular. The nature of abrupt climate change and the different ways in which it has been defined and perceived are examined. Using the example of the collapse of the thermohaline circulation (THC), the suggested implications for society of abrupt climate change are reviewed; previous work has been largely speculative and has generally considered the implications only from economic and ecological perspectives. Some observations about the implications from a more social and behavioural science perspective are made. If abrupt climate change simply implies changes in the occurrence or intensity of extreme weather events, or an accelerated unidirectional change in climate, the design of adaptation to climate change can proceed within the existing paradigm, with appropriate adjustments. Limits to adaptation in some sectors or regions may be reached, and the costs of appropriate adaptive behaviour may be large, but strategy can develop on the basis of a predicted long-term unidirectional change in climate. It would be more challenging, however, if abrupt climate change implied a directional change in climate, as, for example, may well occur in northwest Europe following a collapse of the THC. There are two fundamental problems for society associated with such an outcome: first, the future changes in climate currently being anticipated and prepared for may reverse and, second, the probability of such a scenario occurring remains fundamentally unknown. The implications of both problems for climate policy and for decision making have not been researched. It is premature to argue therefore that abrupt climate change-in the sense referred to here-imposes unacceptable costs on society or the world economy, represents a catastrophic impact of climate change or constitutes a dangerous change in climate that should be avoided at all reasonable cost. We conclude by examining the implications of this contention for future research and policy formation. 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RP Pelling, M, Univ Liverpool, Dept Geog, Roxby Bldg, Liverpool L69 7ZT, Merseyside, England. AB Urban areas are becoming increasingly risky places to live, especially for low-income residents of cities in developing countries. Exposure to environmental risk and hazard has stimulated a range of work examining the physical processes creating these hazards, and the human processes that lead to vulnerability. Both approaches are useful, but are in danger of focusing on proximate rather than underlying causes. The concept of 'adaptive potential' is introduced in this paper to expose the social base of vulnerability. It offers a framework for broadening the analysis of risk to include an examination of local social assets. Such assets may already be used in confronting vulnerability, or they may be more latent; in either case, they offer a way for strategic policy interventions to enhance community resilience with regard to future risk at a time of growing environmental uncertainty. Adaptive potential is applied to a case study community in Santo Domingo. 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RP Sutherland, WJ, Univ E Anglia, Sch Biol Sci, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. AB Economists, politicians, farmers, consumers and conservationists are all calling for drastic changes in agricultural policies. The current emphasis is on promoting agri-environment schemes, and recent work shows that, although some schemes can be beneficial, others generate negligible gains. An alternative is to combine carefully targeted agri-environment schemes with large-scale habitat restoration. Restoration provides the opportunity to deal with several problems simultaneously, such as sea-level rise, water-catchment protection and flood defence. Pioneering schemes are showing that such restoration is possible, and there is now the opportunity to carry such restoration out more widely. CR *COUNTR LAND BUS A, 2001, CLIM CHANG RUR EC *NAT RIV AUTH, 1995, GUID UND MAN SALTM *RSPB, 2001, FUT LARG SCAL HAB RE ASHENDORFF A, 1997, J AM WATER WORKS ASS, V89, P75 BAKKER JP, 1999, TRENDS ECOL EVOL, V14, P63 DONALD PF, 2001, P ROY SOC LOND B BIO, V268, P25 FALCONER K, 2000, LAND USE POLICY, V17, P269 GILG AW, 1998, FOOD POLICY, V23, P25 HENDERSON IG, 2000, ECOGRAPHY, V23, P50 KLEIJN D, 2001, NATURE, V413, P723 KOKKO H, 2001, EVOL ECOL RES, V3, P537 KREBS JR, 1999, NATURE, V400, P611 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 MYERS N, 1998, PERVERSE SUBSIDIES OVENDEN GN, 1998, J APPL ECOL, V35, P955 PEACH WJ, 2001, BIOL CONSERV, V101, P361 PRETTY JN, 2000, AGR SYST, V65, P113 ROBINSON RA, IN PRESS J APPL ECOL SPURGEON J, 1998, MAR POLLUT BULL, V37, P373 SUTHERLAND WJ, 2001, TRENDS ECOL EVOL, V16, P261 TILMAN D, 2001, SCIENCE, V292, P281 VANDERPLOEG RR, 1999, NATURWISSENSCHAFTEN, V86, P313 NR 22 TC 17 J9 TREND ECOL EVOLUT BP 148 EP 150 PY 2002 PD MAR VL 17 IS 3 GA 527ZB UT ISI:000174217000015 ER PT J AU Alberini, A Chiabai, A Muehlenbachs, L TI Using expert judgment to assess adaptive capacity to climate change: Evidence from a conjoint choice survey SO GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS LA English DT Article C1 Univ Maryland, AREC, College Pk, MD 20742 USA. Fdn Eni Enrico Mattei, I-30122 Venice, Italy. RP Alberini, A, Univ Maryland, AREC, 2200 Symons Hall, College Pk, MD 20742 USA. AB We use conjoint choice questions to ask a sample of public health and climate change experts contacted at professional meetings in 2003 and 2004 (n = 100) which of two hypothetical countries, A or B, they deem to have the higher adaptive capacity to certain effects of climate change on human health. These hypothetical countries are described by a vector of seven attributes, including per capita income, inequality in the distribution of income, measures of the health status of the population, the health care system, and access to information. Probit models indicate that our respondents regard per capita income, inequality in the distribution of income, universal health care coverage, and high access to information as important determinants of adaptive capacity. A universal-coverage health care system and a high level of access to information are judged to be equivalent to $12,000-$14,000 in per capita income. We use the estimated coefficients and country socio-demographics to construct an index of adaptive capacity for several countries. In panel-data regressions, this index is a good predictor of mortality in climatic disasters, even after controlling for other determinants of sensitivity and exposure, and for per capita income. We conclude that our conjoint choice questions provide a novel and promising approach to eliciting expert judgments in the climate change arena. (C) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 *U CATH LOUV, EM DAT OFDA CRED INT ADAMOWICZ W, 1994, J ENVIRON ECON MANAG, V26, P271 ADGER WN, 2000, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V90, P738 ADGER WN, 2005, CR GEOSCI, V337, P399 ALBERINI A, 2005, REG SCI URBAN ECON, V35, P327 BOXALL PC, 1996, ECOL ECON, V18, P243 BROOKS N, 2005, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V15, P151 FUSSELL E, 2005, LEAVING NEW ORLEANS GREENE WH, 2003, ECONOMETRIC ANAL GROTHMANN T, 2005, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V15, P199 HADDAD BM, 2005, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V15, P165 HANLEY N, 2001, J ECON SURV, V15, P435 KALY U, 2002, DEV B, V58, P33 KLEIN RJT, 1998, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V44, P15 KLEIN RJT, 2003, CLIMATE CHANGE MEDIT LEITH JC, 2005, WHY BOTSWANA PROSPER LOUVIERE JJ, 2000, STATED CHOICE METHOD LUERS AL, 2003, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V13, P255 MENDELSOHN R, 1994, AM ECON REV, V84, P753 MENDELSOHN R, 1996, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V80, P55 MORGAN MG, 2001, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V49, P279 MOSS RH, 2000, VULNERABILITY CLIMAT NORDHAUS WD, 1994, SCIENTIST, V82, P44 OBRIEN KL, 2004, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V64, P193 OSHIMA H, 2001, POPULATION CHANGE EC PATT AG, 2002, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V15, P185 PELLING M, 2005, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V15, P308 PHILLIPS J, 2003, COPING CLIMATE VARIA, P110 POLSKY C, 2004, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V94, P549 PUTNAM R, 1995, PS POLITICAL SCI POL, V28, P667 SADRIEH A, 2005, INEQUALITY COOPERATI SIMERMAN J, 2005, CHARLOTTE OBSER 1230 SKIDMORE M, 2002, ECON INQ, V40, P664 TAYLOR I, 2003, AFRICAN AFFAIRS, V102 TOL RSJ, 2005, ENERG POLICY, V33, P2064 YOHE GW, 2002, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V12, P25 YOHE GW, 2002, J ECON GEOGR, V2, P311 NR 38 TC 0 J9 GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANGE BP 123 EP 144 PY 2006 PD MAY VL 16 IS 2 GA 051NM UT ISI:000238167800003 ER PT J AU Newell, P TI Climate change and development: A tale of two crises SO IDS BULLETIN-INSTITUTE OF DEVELOPMENT STUDIES LA English DT Article C1 Univ Warwick, Coventry CV4 7AL, W Midlands, England. Climate Network Europe, NGO Sector, Brussels, Belgium. AB The fact that climate change has been so neglected by the mainstream development community should not be a surprise. Not only because most environmental issues have yet to be effectively mainstreamed within development policy and practice, but because climate change raises a series of uncomfortable challenges for the theory and practice of development. By not thinking beyond convenient frames of interpretation, we miss an important opportunity to effect more substantive change in preventing climate change from further immiserising the lives of the poor, by critically revisiting the role of conventional development strategies in producing the problem in the first place. 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RP Kashyap, A, UNDP, 304 E 45th St FF-9th Floor, New York, NY 10017 USA. AB There is increasing evidence that global climate variability and change is affecting the quality and availability of water supplies. Integrated water resources development, use, and management strategies, represent an effective approach to achieve sustainable development of water resources in a changing environment with competing demands. It is also a key to achieving the Millennium Development Goals. It is critical that integrated water management strategies must incorporate the impacts of climate variability and change to reduce vulnerability of the poor, strengthen sustainable livelihoods and support national sustainable development. UNDP's strategy focuses on developing adaptation in the water governance sector as an entry point within the framework of poverty reduction and national sustainable development. This strategy aims to strengthen the capacity of governments and civil society organizations to have access to early warning systems, ability to assess the impact of climate variability and change on integrated water resources management, and developing adaptation intervention through hands-on learning by undertaking pilot activities. CR MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 *UNDP UNEP WORLD B, 2002, POV CLIM CHANG RED V COSGROVE WJ, WORLD WATER VISION M NR 3 TC 0 J9 WATER SCI TECHNOL BP 141 EP 146 PY 2004 VL 49 IS 7 GA 834HB UT ISI:000222401100027 ER PT J AU Confalonieri, R Gusberti, D Bocchi, S Acutis, M TI The CropSyst model to simulate the N balance of rice for alternative management SO AGRONOMY FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT LA English DT Article C1 Commiss European Communities, Joint Res Ctr, Inst Protect & Secur Citizen, AGRIFISH Unit,MARS STAT Sector,TP 268, I-21020 Ispra, VA, Italy. Univ Milan, Sect Agron, Dept Crop Sci, I-20133 Milan, Italy. RP Confalonieri, R, Commiss European Communities, Joint Res Ctr, Inst Protect & Secur Citizen, AGRIFISH Unit,MARS STAT Sector,TP 268, I-21020 Ispra, VA, Italy. AB CropSyst is a mechanistic model developed for simulating the growth and development of potentially all herbaceous crops under potential and water/nitrogen ( N)-limited conditions. Although the model has been widely used for many crops under different pedo-climatic and management conditions, studies on the simulation of water and N balance for flooded rice are lacking. We evaluated the CropSyst model for simulating the N balance of north-Italian rice fields for scatter-seeded rice grown under continuously flooded conditions. In order to calibrate and validate the model for the processes involved with soil N transformation, data collected in field experiments carried out in northern Italy between 2002 and 2004 were used. The results show the robustness of the model in reproducing the course of the measured soil mineral nitrogen content: the Modeling Efficiencies which describe the agreement between measured and simulated trends, are in most cases positive and the model error fell almost always within the experimental error on the measurements ( P = 0.95). Moreover, the model showed the same level of reliability while simulating the nitrogen balances under different levels of nitrogen fertilization, thus depicting it as suitable for comparing N fertilization scenarios. This first attempt at using a model for simulating the nitrogen balance under flooded conditions encourages further studies because of the need of effective tools for optimizing the nitrogen management of flooded rice systems, considered significant sources of groundwater pollution and greenhouse gases in many European rice districts. CR MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 ACUTIS M, 2000, EUR J AGRON, V13, P191 ALAOUI A, 2003, HYDROLOG SCI J, V48, P455 ANGUS JF, 1996, P 2 AS CROP SCI C 21, P274 BECHINI L, 2006, ENVIRON MODELL SOFTW, V21, P1042 BLOMBACK K, 1995, ECOL MODEL, V81, P157 CAMPBELL GS, 1985, SOIL PHYS BASIC CASSMAN KG, 1993, PLANT SOIL, V155, P359 CONFALONIERI R, 2004, EUR J AGRON, V21, P223 CONFALONIERI R, 2005, ECOL MODEL, V183, P269 CONFALONIERI R, 2005, EUR J AGRON, V23, P315 CONFALONIERI R, 2005, ITAL J AGROMETEOROL, V2, P54 CORWIN DL, 1991, J ENVIRON QUAL, V20, P647 DIEKKRUGER B, 1995, ECOL MODEL, V81, P3 FOCHT DD, 1979, NITROGEN RICE, P105 GHOSH BC, 1998, ENVIRON POLLUT S1, V102, P123 HANSEN S, 1991, FERT RES, V27, P245 JUSTES E, 1994, ANN BOT-LONDON, V74, P397 KROPFF MJ, 1994, SARP RES P LOS BAN P KUSHWAHA CP, 2000, SOIL TILL RES, V56, P153 LANCASHIRE PD, 1991, ANN APPL BIOL, V119, P561 LIU CW, 2001, AGR SYST, V68, P41 LOAGUE K, 1991, J CONTAM HYDROL, V7, P51 MAHMOOD R, 1998, ECOL MODEL, V106, P201 MAJUMDAR D, 2000, AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON, V81, P163 MONTEITH JL, 1996, AGRON J, V88, P695 PANNKUK CD, 1998, AGR SYST, V57, P121 PIRMORADIAN N, 2004, AGRONOMIE, V24, P143 REDDY KR, 1982, PLANT SOIL, V67, P209 SEPPELT R, 2005, ENVIRON MODELL SOFTW, V20, P1543 SIERRA J, 2003, PLANT SOIL, V256, P333 SINGH U, 1993, USERS GUIDE CERES RI SINGH U, 1999, FIELD CROP RES, V61, P237 STOCKLE CO, 2003, EUR J AGRON, V18, P289 STUTTERHEIM NC, 1994, FERT RES, V37, P235 VANITTERSUM MK, 2003, EUR J AGRON, V18, P187 NR 36 TC 0 J9 AGRON SUSTAIN DEV BP 241 EP 249 PY 2006 PD OCT-DEC VL 26 IS 4 GA 128VJ UT ISI:000243686800003 ER PT J AU Aggarwal, PK Banerjee, B Daryaei, MG Bhatia, A Bala, A Rani, S Chander, S Pathak, H Kalra, N TI InfoCrop: A dynamic simulation model for the assessment of crop yields, losses due to pests, and environmental impact of agro-ecosystems in tropical environments. II. Performance of the model SO AGRICULTURAL SYSTEMS LA English DT Article C1 Indian Agr Res Inst, Div Environm Sci, New Delhi 110012, India. RP Aggarwal, PK, Indian Agr Res Inst, Div Environm Sci, NRL Bldg, New Delhi 110012, India. AB InfoCrop, a generic crop model, simulates the effects of weather, soils, agronomic management (planting, nitrogen, residues and irrigation) and major pests on crop growth, yield, soil carbon, nitrogen and water, and greenhouse gas emissions. This paper presents results of its evaluation in terms of its validation for rice and wheat crops in contrasting agro-environments of tropics, sensitivity to the key inputs, and also illustrates two typical applications of the model. Eleven diverse field experiments, having treatments of location, seasons, varieties, nitrogen management, organic matter, irrigation, and multiple pest incidences were used for validation. Grain yields in these experiments varied from 2.8 to 7.2 ton ha(-1) in rice and from 3.6 to 5.5 ton ha(-1) in wheat. The results indicated that the model was generally able to explain the differences in biomass, grain yield, emissions of carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxides, and long-term trends in soil organic carbon, in diverse agro-environments. The losses in dry matter and grain yield due to different pests and their populations were also explained satisfactorily. There were some discrepancies in the simulated emission of these gases during first few days after sowing/transplanting possibly because of the absence of tillage effects in the model. The sensitivity of the model to change in ambient temperature, crop duration and pest incidence was similar to the available field knowledge. The application of the model to quantify multiple pests damage through iso-loss curves is demonstrated. Another application illustrated is the use of InfoCrop for analyzing the trade-offs between increasing crop production, agronomic management strategies, and their global warming potential. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *FAO, 1999, STAT FOOD INS WORLD MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 AGGARWAL PK, 1994, FIELD CROP RES, V38, P73 AGGARWAL PK, 1997, FIELD CROP RES, V51, P5 AGGARWAL PK, 2000, SERIES RWCIGP CIMMYT, V10, P16 AGGARWAL PK, 2003, J PLANT BIOL, V30, P189 AGGARWAL PK, 2004, ENVIRON SCI POLICY, V7, P487 AGGARWAL PK, 2005, MODEL DESCRIPTION AG, V1 BHANDARI AL, 2002, SOIL SCI SOC AM J, V66, P167 BOUMAN BAM, 2001, ORYZA2000 MODELING L, P235 DUXBURY JM, 2000, LONG TERM SOIL FERTI JONES JW, 2001, AGR SYST, V70, P421 KATYAL V, 1998, INDIAN J AGR SCI, V68, P51 KAUFFMAN HE, 1973, PLANT DIS REP, V57, P537 LADHA JK, 2003, ASA SPEC PUBL, V65, P231 MALL RK, 2002, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V52, P315 PATHAK H, 2002, ENVIRON MONIT ASSESS, V77, P163 PATHAK H, 2003, AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON, V97, P309 REDDY PR, 1993, SARP RES P ANAL DAMA, P279 SANKARAN VM, 2000, FIELD CROP RES, V66, P141 SINHA SK, 1998, DECLINE CROP PRODUCT, P89 TENBERGE HFM, 1997, APPL RICE MODELLING, P166 VANKRAALINGEN DWG, 1995, 1 WAG U CT WIT GRAD, P58 NR 23 TC 0 J9 AGR SYST BP 47 EP 67 PY 2006 PD JUL VL 89 IS 1 GA 031EN UT ISI:000236687000003 ER PT J AU HALL, RL HALL, DA TI GEOGRAPHIC-VARIATION OF NATIVE PEOPLE ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST SO HUMAN BIOLOGY LA English DT Article C1 OREGON STATE UNIV,CTR STUDY 1ST AMER,CORVALLIS,OR 97331. RP HALL, RL, OREGON STATE UNIV,DEPT ANTHROPOL,CORVALLIS,OR 97331. AB Data gathered by Boas in the 1890s from 1749 adult males and 1056 adult females were subjected to anthropometric analyses to investigate possible effects of climatic adaptation. The subjects were native people from California, Oregon, Washington, the panhandle of Alaska, and British Columbia. They were categorized by their tribe's latitude and longitude (the center point of tribal distribution) and by habitat (characterized as coastal, western lowlands, and interior). Multiple R regressions were used to determine complex relationships between age, habitat, latitude, rainfall, mean January temperature, mean July temperature, and blood quantum, all of which affected some anthropometric variables to statistically significant degrees in both the male and the female samples. Body size and proportional differences support other studies of Bergmann's and Alien's rules, and variation in the nasal index supports prior studies of selection of longer, narrower noses in cold and dry climates and broader noses in warmer, moister ones. Recent disruption in the central portion of the study area was detectable in reduced size of subjects in these regions. Other complicating factors, such as ethnicity and the possibility of prior migrations and intermarriage between populations, are discussed. CR 1985, CLIMATE STATES BOAS F, 1891, AM ANTHROPOL, V4, P25 BOYD RT, 1990, HDB N AM INDIANS, V7, P135 CAREY JW, 1981, AM J PHYS ANTHROPOL, V56, P313 CASTILLO ED, 1978, HDB N AM INDIANS, V8, P99 COLE DC, 1990, HDB N AM INDIANS, V7, P119 DUFF W, 1969, ANTHR BRIT COLUMBIA, V5 ELSASSER AB, 1978, HDB N AM INDIANS, V8, P37 FRANCISCUS RG, 1988, AM J PHYS ANTHROPOL, V75, P517 FRISANCHO AR, 1979, HUMAN ADAPTATION HALL R, 1972, AM J PHYS ANTHROPOL, V37, P439 HALL RL, 1972, AM J PHYS ANTHROPOL, V37, P401 HALL RL, 1978, HUM BIOL, V50, P159 HALL RL, 1991, PAC NORTHWEST QUART, V82, P101 HALL RL, 1992, J ANTHROPOL RES, V48, P165 HALL RL, 1992, MASCA RES PAPERS SCI, V9, P43 HARE FK, 1979, CLIMATE CANADA HEIZER RF, 1978, HDB N AM INDIANS, V8 JACKSON PL, 1993, ATLAS PACIFIC NW, P48 JANTZ RL, 1992, HUM BIOL, V64, P435 NEWMAN MT, 1953, AM ANTHROPOL, V55, P311 NEWMAN MT, 1960, HUM BIOL, V32, P288 ROBERTS DF, 1953, AM J PHYS ANTHROPOL, V11, P533 ROBERTS DF, 1978, CLIMATE HUMAN VARIAB ROHLF FJ, 1969, STATISTICAL TABLES RUFF CB, 1991, J HUM EVOL, V21, P81 SCHUYLER RL, 1978, HDB N AM INDIANS, V8, P69 SIMPSON GG, 1960, QUANTITATIVE ZOOLOGY SUTTLES W, 1990, HDB N AM INDIANS, V7 WALLACE WJ, 1978, HDB N AM INDIANS, V8, P164 WEINER JS, 1954, AM J PHYS ANTHROPOL, V12, P615 WILKINSON L, 1989, SYSTAT SYSTEM STATIS NR 32 TC 4 J9 HUM BIOL BP 407 EP 426 PY 1995 PD JUN VL 67 IS 3 GA QW687 UT ISI:A1995QW68700006 ER PT J AU Perez-Escamill, R Randolph, S Hathie, I Gaye, I TI Adaptation and validation of the USDA food security scale in rural Senegal SO FASEB JOURNAL LA English DT Meeting Abstract C1 Univ Connecticut, Storrs, CT 06269 USA. ENEA, Dakar, Senegal. NR 0 TC 0 J9 FASEB J BP A106 EP A106 PY 2004 PD MAR 23 VL 18 IS 4 GA 806ZA UT ISI:000220470600516 ER PT J AU Greppin, H Degli Agosti, R Priceputu, AM TI From viability envelopes to sustainable societies: A place for various and efficient economical and cultural expressions on the planet SO ARCHIVES DES SCIENCES LA English DT Article C1 Univ Geneva, Dept Plant Biol & Bot, CH-1204 Geneva 4, Switzerland. Univ Geneva, Univ Ctr Human Ecol & Environm Sci, CUEH, Uni Mail, CH-1211 Geneva, Switzerland. Univ Geneva, HEC Management Studies, Logilab, Uni Mail, CH-1211 Geneva 4, Switzerland. RP Greppin, H, Univ Geneva, Dept Plant Biol & Bot, Pl Univ 3, CH-1204 Geneva 4, Switzerland. AB The concept of viability envelopes (physical, chemical, biological levels) is developed as well as the general consequences and conditions to put in place a global and local sustainable development as defined by official institutions. The three logics and associated regulation processes that define a viable relation-space are presented. Some sentinel variables are proposed. There are, for example, the population life expectancy (PLE) and net photosynthetic production (NPP) on a soil or a sea of ecological quality, as well as the mean temperature and atmospheric CO2 variation velocities. These elementary indicators permit us to follow and evaluate the degree of interaction between human oxygen respiration and energetic consumption with the photosynthetic oxygen production by green plants, as well as the correlation with the thermic and greenhouse effect. The increase or decrease of PLE and NPP as well as the phase-space evolution of the thermic and CO2 pattern can give us a precocious information, for the near future, on the sense of sustainability (positive or negative way) provoked by a socio-economic pattern and energetic choice. A cybernetical model is presented as well as different ways of positive adaptation and management. 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SO ENVIRONMENTAL CONSERVATION LA English DT Article RP Frazier, JG, IPN,CTR INVEST & ESTUDIOS AVANZADOS,SECC ECOL HUMANA,UNIDAD MERIDA,MERIDA 97310,YUCATAN,MEXICO. AB Over the past two decades 'sustainable development' has grown from a term expressing concern for social and environmental problems to an international craze. The concept purportedly offers cures for the many and diverse problems afflicting modem society and because it involves an integrated approach, the sustainable development fashion has resulted in much-needed collaboration between specialists from diverse backgrounds, to work on the complex problems involved in the interactions between society and environment. However, the term is rarely defined, and, being stylish and institutionalized, the 'sustainability movement' now directs the way much science and policy for biological conservation and development are designed, executed and evaluated. Occult, but basic, in nearly ail discourses of sustainable development is the axiom of continual growth; and, in most cases, instead of offering a true solution to contemporary problems, the term is a source of confusion, contention and even deception. It is imperative that the use of this term, especially in multidisciplinary, international and scientific spheres, be based on clear understanding of its meaning, and that the issue of growth and the concept of limits be clearly incorporated into the core of the discussion. CR *IUCN UNDP WWF, 1991, CARING EARTH *ROYAL SOC LOND US, 1992, M WORLD COMM CULT DE *WCED, 1987, OUR COMM FUT *WCS, 1980, WORLD CONS STRAT LIV ADAMS AL, 1994, SUSTAINABLE USE WILD ADAMS REW, 1977, ARCHAEOLOGY, V30, P292 BATES DG, 1991, HUMAN ADAPTIVE STRAT BELZ F, 1994, GAIA, V3, P44 BODLEY JH, 1988, TRIBAL PEOPLES DEV I BODLEY JH, 1990, VICTIMS PROGR BOTKIN DB, 1990, DISCORDANT HARMONIES BRENNAN AA, 1992, ENV DILEMMAS ETHICS BROKENSHA DW, 1980, INDIGENOUS KNOWLEDGE BROWN L, 1993, STATE WORLD, P3 CARPENTER RA, 1994, ECOLOGY INT B, V21, P27 CLARK J, 1990, DEMOCRATIZING DEV RO CLAY JW, 1988, INDIGENOUS PEOPLES T COLVIN M, 1994, FROM THE CTR, V13, P1 DOWIE M, 1995, LOSING GROUND AM ENV DURNING AT, 1993, 112 WORLDW EDWARDS PJ, 1994, 6 INT C EC MANCH UK EDWARDS PJ, 1994, LARGE SCALE ECOLOGY EGERTON F, 1993, HUMANS COMPONENTS EC, P9 EMBERSONBAIN A, 1994, SUSTAINABLE DEV MALI ESTAVA G, 1992, INTACH ENV SERIES, V16, P6 FAIRLIE S, 1995, ECOLOGIST, V25, P41 FRAZIER JG, 1990, T 55 N AM WILDL NAT, P384 FRAZIER JG, 1996, P 15 ANN S SEA TURTL, P92 FRAZIER JG, 1996, P INT C CHEL CONS, P262 FREESE C, COMMERCIAL COMSUMPTI FRI RW, 1995, RESOURCES, V120, P15 GADGIL M, 1995, ECOLOGY EQUITY USE A GATTO M, 1995, ECOL APPL, V5, P1181 GERLACH LP, 1994, J FOREST, V92, P18 GOLLEY F, 1994, RENEWABLE RESOUR SUM, P12 GONZALEZ G, 1996, DESARROLLO SUSTENTAB HALL J, 1993, HUMANS COMPONENTS EC, P51 HARDIN G, 1978, STALKING WILD TABOO HARDIN G, 1993, LIVING LIMITS ECOLOG HARDOY JE, 1992, ENV PROBLEMS THIRD W HOYT JA, 1994, ANIMALS PERIL SUSTAI ISBISTER J, 1993, PROMISES KEPT BETRAY KAPLAN RD, 1994, ATLANTIC MONTHLY FEB, P44 KEHOE AB, 1989, GHOST DANCE ETHNOHIS KORTEN DC, 1995, CORPORATIONS RULE WO LAMARCH G, 1992, DEFENDING EARTH ABUS LARKIN PA, 1977, T AM FISH SOC, V106, P1 LEE KN, 1993, ECOL APPL, V3, P560 LEFF E, 1996, FORMACION AMBIENTAL, V7, P17 LELE S, 1996, CONSERV BIOL, V19, P354 LEVIN SA, 1993, ECOL APPL, V3, P545 LOWE JWG, 1985, DYNAMICS APOCALYPSE LUDWIG D, 1993, ECOL APPL, V3, P555 LUDWIG D, 1993, SCIENCE, V260, P17 LUDWIG D, 1993, SCIENCE, V260, P36 MANGEL M, 1993, ECOL APPL, V3, P573 MANGEL M, 1996, ECOL APPL, V6, P338 MARTI F, 1993, ERFOLGSKONTROLLE NAT MASOOD E, 1997, NATURE, V386, P105 MCDONNELL MJ, 1993, HUMANS COMPONENTS EC MITROFF II, 1993, UNREALITY IND DELIBE MOIR WH, 1995, FOREST ECOL MANAG, V73, P239 MORAN EF, 1990, ECOSYSTEM APPROACH A MYERS N, 1992, PRIMARY SOURCE NIGH R, 1989, PERFIL JORNADA 0516, R1 OHARA SL, 1994, CHEMOSPHERE, V29, P965 ORR DW, 1994, CONSERV BIOL, V8, P931 PAINTER M, 1995, SOCIAL CAUSES ENV DE PEARCE D, 1989, BLUEPRINT GREEN EC PEARCE D, 1989, CHANGING GLOBAL ENV, P309 PINSTRUPANDERSEN P, 1996, ENVIRON CONSERV, V23, P226 POSTEL SD, 1993, STATE WORLD, P22 RAPPAPORT RA, 1967, PIGS ANCESTORS RITUA, V1, P1 REDFORD KH, 1990, ORION NATURE Q, V9, P24 RICHTER J, 1996, ECOLOGIST, V26, P53 ROBINSON JG, 1993, CONSERV BIOL, V7, P20 ROBINSON JG, 1993, CONSERV BIOL, V7, P941 ROSENBERG AA, 1993, SCIENCE, V262, P828 SCHLESINGER WH, 1991, BIOGEOCHEMISTRY ANAL SCHWARTZNOBEL L, 1981, STARVING SHADOW PLEN SHERMAN K, 1994, MARINE ECOLOGY PROGR, V112, P227 SHIVA V, 1986, INTACH ENV SERIES, V5, P1 SHIVA V, 1992, INTACH ENV SERIES, V18, P1 SKLAR H, 1980, TRILATERILISM TRILAT SOLOW R, 1992, ALMOST PRACTICAL STE SOLOW RM, 1996, HUMAN DEV REPORT, P16 SPOERL PM, 1995, BIODIVERSITY MANAGEM, P492 TISDELL C, 1988, WORLD DEV, V16, P373 TOLBA MK, 1993, WORLD ENV 1972 1992 TOMPKINS S, 1989, FORESTRY CRISIS BATT TUCKER AD, 1995, CONSERVATION SUSTAIN, P151 ULHAQ M, 1995, HUMAN DEV REPORT 199 ULHAQ M, 1996, HUMAN DEV REPORT 199 WALLACE AFC, 1970, MAGIC WITCHCRAFT REL, P332 WESTING AH, 1996, ENVIRON CONSERV, V23, P218 WILLERS B, 1994, CONSERV BIOL, V8, P1146 YOUNG LB, 1991, WORLD MONITOR, P40 NR 97 TC 10 J9 ENVIRON CONSERV BP 182 EP 193 PY 1997 PD JUN VL 24 IS 2 GA YJ450 UT ISI:A1997YJ45000010 ER PT J AU Troadec, JP TI Adaptation opportunities to climate variability and change in the exploitation and utilisation of marine living resources SO ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING AND ASSESSMENT LA English DT Article C1 Menez Perroz, F-29880 Plouguerneau, France. RP Troadec, JP, Menez Perroz, F-29880 Plouguerneau, France. AB Because they contribute little to climate change, fisheries, aquaculture and other uses of marine renewable resources and environment have limited means to mitigate climate impacts. Adaptation is, therefore, critical. Though likely effects on oceans and fisheries can be identified, few can be quantified and, thus, priorized. Consequently, adaptation strategies should aim at enhancing the resilience of marine renewable resources and their uses and the current capacity to respond to surprises. Already, these uses are characterized by massive over-capacities, excessive resource exploitation, and pervasive conflicts within and between uses. Two complementary adaptation strategies are available. The first consists in adjusting conventional management systems to the new conditions of resource scarcity. The second aims at reducing the current resource constraint by promoting the development of aquaculture and a better utilization of fishery and aquaculture harvests. In this respect, small-scale and large-scale production systems, and developing and developed countries, have different capabilities. In summary, climate change does not modify, but enhances, existing priorities of environment and fisheries management and aquaculture development. CR *FAO, 1997, STAT WORLD FISH AQ WATSON RT, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, V1, P1 ARNASON R, 1998, M COMM AGR RUR DEV E BAKUN A, 1996, CALIFORNIA SEA GRANT BRAUDEL F, 1973, CIVILISATION MAT EC, V1 CAUVIN J, 1994, NAISSANCE AGR REVOLU CUSHING DH, 1977, CLIMATE FISHERIES MAZOYER M, 1997, HIST AGR MONDE NEOLI NORTH DC, 1973, RISE W WORLD NEW EC SINCLAIR MH, 1989, MARINE POPULATIONS E NR 10 TC 0 J9 ENVIRON MONIT ASSESS BP 101 EP 112 PY 2000 PD MAR VL 61 IS 1 GA 300UB UT ISI:000086270100008 ER PT J AU Brunner, RD Klein, R TI Harvesting experience: A reappraisal of the US Climate Change Action Plan SO POLICY SCIENCES LA English DT Article C1 Univ Colorado, Ctr Publ Policy Res, Boulder, CO 80309 USA. RP Brunner, RD, Univ Colorado, Ctr Publ Policy Res, Campus Box 333, Boulder, CO 80309 USA. AB For mitigating climate change and adapting to whatever impacts we cannot avoid, there are no politically feasible alternatives to improvements in the U.S. Climate Change Action Plan at this time or for the foreseeable future. Yet improvements in the Action Plan have been obstructed by the diversion of attention and other resources to negotiating a binding international agreement, to developing a predictive understanding of global change, and to documenting the failure of the Action Plan to meet its short-term goal for the reduction of aggregate greenhouse gas emissions. Continuous improvements depend upon reallocating attention and other resources to the Action Plan, and more specifically, to the many small-scale policies that have already succeeded by climate change and `no regrets' criteria under the Action Plan. Sustaining the effort over the long term depends on harvesting experience from these small-scale successes for diffusion and adaptation elsewhere on a voluntary basis. CR 1997, US CLIMATE ACTION RE *COMM EARTH ENV SC, 1992, EC GLOB CHANG FY 199 *COMM EARTH SCI, 1989, OUR CHANG PLAN FY 19 *COMM ENV NAT RES, 1997, CHANG PLAN FY 1998 U *INT PAN CLIM CHAN, 1995, 1995 2 ASS SYNTH SCI *INT PAN CLIM CHAN, 1996, CLIM CHANG 1995 EC S *OFF GLOB CHANG, 1992, DEP STAT PUBL *US DOE, CLIM CHALL YOUR UT *US GEN ACC OFF, 1996, GAORCED96188 *US GEN ACC OFF, 1997, GAORCED97163 BAILEY J, 1996, AFTERTHOUGHT COMPUTE BERKE RL, 1997, NY TIMES 0622, P1 BERKE RL, 1997, NY TIMES 0702, A1 BODANSKY DM, 1995, ANNU REV ENERG ENV, V20, P425 BRUNNER RD, 1980, PUBLIC POLICY, V28, P71 BRUNNER RD, 1982, COMMUNITY ENERGY OPT BRUNNER RD, 1996, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V32, P121 BRUNNER RD, 1996, POLICY SCI, V29, P45 BRUNNER RD, 1998, 17 POL SCI ANN I YAL CLINTON WJ, 1993, CLIMATE CHANGE ACTIO CLINTON WJ, 1997, WEEKLY COMPILATION P, V33, P1629 CLINTON WJ, 1998, COMMUNICATION 0131 COLLINGRIDGE D, 1992, MANAGEMENT SCALE BIG DEWAR H, 1997, WASHINGTON POST 1211, A37 DRAPER L, 1994, ELECT PERSPECTIVES, V18, P24 GORE A, 1996, SCIENCE, V272, P177 HAVEL V, 1992, NY TIMES 0301, E15 HOLLAND JH, 1992, DAEDALUS, V121, P17 KAPLAN A, 1964, CONDUCT INQUIRY METH KAUPPI PE, 1995, SCIENCE, V270, P1454 KRIS M, 1996, NATL J 0309, P522 LANDAU M, 1969, PUBLIC ADMIN REV, V29, P346 LASHOF D, 1996, EVALUATING CLIMATE C, P49 LASSWELL HD, 1950, POWER SOC FRAMEWORK LASSWELL HD, 1956, DECISION PROCESS 7 C LASSWELL HD, 1963, FUTURE POLITICAL SCI, P95 LASSWELL HD, 1971, PREVIEW POLICY SCI LASSWELL HD, 1992, JURISPRUDENCE FREE S LEMONICK M, 1993, TIME 1101, P71 LEWIN T, 1997, NY TIMES 0925, A1 MITCHELL ES, 1996, MATURITAS, V25, P1 MONTGOMERY D, 1996, EVALUATING CLIMATE C, P75 MULLER F, 1996, ENVIRONMENT, V38, P13 OLSON S, 1997, SCIENCE, V277, P630 PAARLBERG RL, 1996, ENVIRONMENT OCT, P16 PIELKE RA, 1995, B AM METEOROL SOC, V76, P2445 PIELKE RA, 1995, POLICY SCI, V28, P39 PIELKE RA, 1998, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V8, P159 SCHICK A, 1995, FEDERAL BUDGET POLIT SIMON HA, 1957, MODELS MAN SIMON HA, 1981, SCI ARTIFICIAL SIMON HA, 1983, REASON HUMAN AFFAIRS STEVENS WK, 1997, NY TIMES 1103, A1 TENNEKES H, 1990, WEATHER, V45, P67 UNGAR S, 1995, SOC NATUR RESOUR, V8, P443 NR 55 TC 4 J9 POLICY SCI BP 133 EP 161 PY 1999 PD JUN VL 32 IS 2 GA 218UU UT ISI:000081572000002 ER PT J AU Jacobs, KL Garfin, GM Morehouse, BJ TI Climate science and drought planning: The Arizona experience SO JOURNAL OF THE AMERICAN WATER RESOURCES ASSOCIATION LA English DT Article C1 Univ Arizona, Dept Soil Water & Environm Sci, Tucson, AZ 85721 USA. Univ Arizona, Water Resources Res Ctr, Tucson, AZ 85721 USA. Univ Arizona, Inst Study Planet Earth, CLIMAS, Tucson, AZ 85721 USA. RP Jacobs, KL, Univ Arizona, Dept Soil Water & Environm Sci, 350 N Campbell, Tucson, AZ 85721 USA. AB In response to recent severe drought conditions throughout the state, Arizona recently developed its first drought plan. The Governor's Drought Task Force focused on limiting the economic and social impacts of future droughts through enhanced adaptation and mitigation efforts. The plan was designed to maximize the use of new, scientific breakthroughs in climate monitoring and prediction and in vulnerability assessment. The long term objective of the monitoring system is to allow for evaluation of conditions in multiple sectors and at multiple scales. Stakeholder engagement and decision support are key objectives in reducing Arizona's vulnerability in light of the potential for severe, sustained drought. The drivers of drought conditions in Arizona include the El Nino-Southem Oscillation, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. CR *AM ASS STAT CLIM, 2001, POL STAT CLIM VAR CH *AR GOV DROUGHT TA, 2004, WELC GDTF *NAT WEATH SERV, 2004, CURR OV DROUGHT COND *NEW MEX DROUGHT T, 2003, NEW MEX DROUGHT PLAN *WGA, 2004, DROUGHT EARL WARN SY ACUNASOTO R, 2002, EMERG INFECT DIS, V8, P360 ADAMS DK, 1997, B AM METEOROL SOC, V78, P2197 ALLAN RJ, 1996, EL NINO SO OSCILLATI BROWN DP, 2002, ATMOSPHERIC SCI LETT CASTRO CL, 2001, J CLIMATE, V14, P4449 CAYAN DR, 1999, J CLIMATE, V12, P2881 COLE J, 2002, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V29 DALY C, 1994, J APPL METEOROL, V33, P140 DALY C, 2004, P 14 AM MET SOC C AP DIAZ HF, 2001, INT J CLIMATOL, V21, P1845 EBBESMEYER CC, 1991, P 7 ANN PAC CLIM PAC, P115 ENFIELD DB, 2001, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V28, P2077 GEDALOF Z, 2001, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V28, P1515 GIBBONS M, 1994, NEW PRODUCTION KNOWL GRAY ST, 2003, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V30 GUTZLER DS, 2002, WEATHER FORECAST, V17, P1163 HACKOS JT, 1998, USER TASK ANAL INTER HARTMANN HC, 2002, B AM METEOROL SOC, V83, P683 HEREFORD R, 2002, 11902 USGS HOERLING MP, 2002, J CLIMATE, V15, P2184 JACOBS K, 2003, P U COL NAT RES LAW JASANOFF S, 1998, HUMAN CHOICE CLIMATE, V1, P1 KILADIS GN, 1989, J CLIMATOL, V2, P1069 MANTUA NJ, 1997, B AM METEOROL SOC, V78, P1069 MCCABE GJ, 1999, INT J CLIMATOL, V19, P1399 MCCABE GJ, 2004, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V101, P12 MCKEE TB, 1993, AM MET SOC 8 C APPL, P179 MCKEE TB, 1995, AM MET SOC 9 C APPL, P233 MCKEE TB, 2000, HIST DROUGHT COLORAD MCPHEE J, 2004, DROUGHT CLIMATE ARIZ MEKO D, 1995, WATER RESOUR BULL, V31, P789 MILLER AJ, 1994, OCEANOGRAPHY, V7, P21 MOLOTCH NP, 2004, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V31 MOLOTCH NP, 2004, HYDROLOGICAL PROCESS, V18 NI FB, 2002, INT J CLIMATOL, V22, P1645 NICHOLLS N, 1999, B AM METEOROL SOC, V80, P1385 NIELSEN J, 1994, USABILITY INSPECTION REDMOND KT, 1991, WATER RESOUR RES, V27, P2381 SAREWITZ D, 2000, PREDICTION SCI DECIS SHEPPARD PR, 2002, CLIMATE RES, V21, P219 STAHLE DW, 1998, B AM METEOROL SOC, V79, P2137 STAHLE DW, 2000, EOS, V81, P212 STEINEMANN A, 2003, J AM WATER RESOUR AS, V39, P1217 STERN PC, 1999, MAKING CLIMATE FOREC SVOBODA M, 2002, B AM METEOROL SOC, V83, P1181 SWETNAM TW, 1998, J CLIMATE, V11, P3128 TUFTE ER, 1990, ENVISIONING INFORMAT WILHITE DA, 2000, DROUGHT DROUGHT MITI, P149 WILHITE DA, 2000, J AM WATER RESOUR AS, V36, P697 WILHITE DA, 2000, NATURAL HAZARDS DISA, P158 ZHANG Y, 1997, J CLIMATE, V10, P1004 NR 56 TC 1 J9 J AM WATER RESOUR ASSOC BP 437 EP 445 PY 2005 PD APR VL 41 IS 2 GA 924NP UT ISI:000228985800017 ER PT J AU Klepper, G Peterson, S TI Trading hot-air. The influence of permit allocation rules, market power and the US withdrawal from the Kyoto Protocol SO ENVIRONMENTAL & RESOURCE ECONOMICS LA English DT Article C1 Kiel Inst World Econ, D-24100 Kiel, Germany. RP Klepper, G, Kiel Inst World Econ, D-24100 Kiel, Germany. AB After the conferences in Bonn and Marrakech, it is likely that international emissions trading will be realized in the near future. Major influences on the permit market are the the institutional detail, the participation structure and the treatment of hot-air. Different scenarios not only differ in their implications for the demand and supply of permits and thus the permit price, but also in their allocative effects. In this paper we discuss likely the institutional designs for permit allocation in the hot-air economies and the use of market power and quantify the resulting effects by using the computable general equilibrium model DART. It turns out that the amount of hot-air supplied will be small if hot-air economies cooperate in their decisions. Under welfare maximization, more hot-air supplied than in the case where governments try to maximize revenues from permit sales. CR *EIA, 2002, INT EN OUTL 2003 EN *IETA, 2001, IETA SUMM MARR ACC M WATSON RT, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, V1, P1 BABIKER MH, 2002, 82 MIT JOINT PROGR S BARON R, 1999, MARKET POWER MARKET BARON R, 2002, COMENVEPOCIEASLT2002 BERNSTEIN P, 1999, ENERGY J, P221 BOEHRINGER C, 2001, 0158 ZEW BOEHRINGER C, 2002, ENERGY J, V23, P51 BURNIAUX JM, 1999, IMPORTANT MARKET POW DENELZEN MGJ, 2001, 728001016 RIVM DENELZEN MGJ, 2001, 728001017 RIVM DENELZEN MGJ, 2002, CLIM POLICY, V2, P111 HALL RE, 1999, Q J ECON, V114, P83 HARRISON D, 2002, EVALUATION ALTERNATI KLAASSEN G, 2002, C GLOB TRAD KIEL 30 LOESCHEL A, 2002, EC ENV IMPLICATIONS MANNE AS, 2001, 0112 AEI BROOK JOINT MISSFELD F, 2002, 592002 FEEM PALTSEV SV, 2000, KYOTO PROTOCOL HOT A SPRINGER K, 1998, 883 KIEL I WORLD EC STEENBERGHE VV, 2003, CO2 ABATEMENT COSTS WEYANT JP, 1999, ENERGY J SPECIAL ISS NR 23 TC 1 J9 ENVIRON RESOUR ECON BP 205 EP 227 PY 2005 PD OCT VL 32 IS 2 GA 965KF UT ISI:000231948700002 ER PT J AU Jose, AM Sosa, LM Cruz, NA TI Vulnerability assessment of Angat water reservoir to climate change SO WATER AIR AND SOIL POLLUTION LA English DT Article C1 NWRB,EDSA,QUEZON,PHILIPPINES. RP Jose, AM, PAGASA,1424 QUEZON AVE,QUEZON,PHILIPPINES. AB Global warming due to an anticipated doubling of carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere is expected to alter the earth's climate system within the next century. The potential changes in the climate system could affect hydrological cycles and processes. Possible impacts of climate change on water resources should be assessed to evaluate probable adaptation measures. In the Philippines, a preliminary assessment of the vulnerability of water resources to climate change and variability was undertaken. For this particular study, the Angat Reservoir was chosen as the study area Because of its socioeconomic importance, it is useful to assess its vulnerability to climate change. A rainfall-runoff simulation model, WATBAL, was used to determine the effect of temperature and rainfall changes, based on CO2 doubling, on inflow to the reservoir. Climate change scenarios developed from results from three general circulation models and incremental changes were used. The results showed that changes in temperature and rainfall could affect runoff either positively or negatively. Using the temperature and rainfall changes from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory model there was a 32% increase in runoff and with the Canadian Climate Centre Model, thee was a 15% decrease in runoff. Under a climate scenario generated by the United Kingdom Meteorological Office model, runoff is estimated to increase by 5%. The use of incremental scenarios revealed the strong sensitivity of runoff to changes in rainfall as compared with changes in temperature. CR *ASEAN SUBC CLIM A, 1982, ASEAN CLIM ATL *IPCC, 1992, SCI ASS CLIM CHANG *IPCC, 1995, CLIM CHANG 1995 IPCC, V2 *PAGASA, 1995, MONTHL MEAN ANN CLIM ASUNCION J, 1980, MEAN STREAMLINES ISO BOER GJ, 1992, J CLIMATE, V5, P1045 INNA N, 1991, SIMULATING EFFECTS G JOSE AM, 1989, THESIS U PHILIPPINES JOSE AM, 1992, PRELIMINARY ASSESSME JOSE AM, 1993, PRELIMINARY STUDY IM MITCHELL JFB, 1990, CLIMATE CHANGE IPCC ROSACAY DA, 1989, ANGAT DAM LEVEL MANA YATES D, 1994, WP9445 IIASA YATES D, 1994, WP9464 IIASA NR 14 TC 1 J9 WATER AIR SOIL POLLUT BP 191 EP 201 PY 1996 PD SEP VL 92 IS 1-2 GA VM538 UT ISI:A1996VM53800020 ER PT J AU Tol, RSJ Fankhauser, S Smith, JB TI The scope for adaptation to climate change: what can we learn from the impact literature? SO GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS LA English DT Article C1 Vrije Univ Amsterdam, Inst Environm Studies, Amsterdam, Netherlands. World Bank, Washington, DC 20433 USA. RP Tol, RSJ, Vrije Univ Amsterdam, Inst Environm Studies, Amsterdam, Netherlands. AB Neither the costs nor the benefits of adaptation to climate change have been systematically studied so far. This paper discusses the extent to which the vast body of literature on climate change impacts can provide insights into the scope and likely cost of adaptation. The ways in which the impacts literature deals with adaptation can be grouped into four categories: no adaptation, arbitrary adaptation observed adaptation (analogues), and modeled adaptation (optimization), All four cases are characterized by the simple assumptions made about the mechanisms of adaptation. No or only scant attention is paid to the process of adapting to a new climate. Adaptation analysis has to acknowledge that people will be neither dumb nor brilliant at adapting. They are likely to see the need for change, but may be constrained in their ability to adapt or in their comprehension of the permanence and direction of change, (C) 1998 Published by Elsevier Science Ltd, All rights reserved. CR *DELFT HYDR, 1993, SEA LEV RIS GLOB VUL *IPCC, 1994, WORLD COAST C NOORDW ADAMS RM, 1990, NATURE, V345, P219 ADAMS RM, 1995, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V30, P147 CARTER TR, 1994, IPCC TECHNICAL GUIDE CLINE WR, 1992, EC GLOBAL WARMING DARWIN RF, 1995, 703 US AGR DEP AGR DENNIS KC, 1995, J COASTAL RES, V14, P243 DOWNING TE, 1997, MITIGATION ADAPTATIO, V2, P19 EASTERLING WE, 1993, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V24, P23 FANKHAUSER S, 1995, ENVIRON PLANN A, V27, P299 FANKHAUSER S, 1995, VALUING CLIMATE CHAN FANKHAUSER S, 1997, IN PRESS ECOLOGICAL GADGIL S, 1988, IMPACT CLIMATE VARIA, V2 GLANTZ MH, 1988, SOC RESPONSES REGION GLANTZ MH, 1996, ADAPTING CLIMATE CHA, P407 HOPE C, 1993, ENERG POLICY, V21, P327 HULME M, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE SO AF KALKSTEIN LS, 1989, POTENTIAL EFFECTS GL KALKSTEIN LS, 1997, ENV HLTH PERSPECT, V105, P2 KATTENBERG A, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995 LEATHERMAN SP, 1995, J COASTAL RES, V14, P1 MAGALHES AR, 1996, ADAPTING CLIMATE CHA, P80 MENDELSOHN R, IN PRESS IMPACTS CLI MENDELSOHN R, 1994, AM ECON REV, V84, P753 MORRISETTE PM, 1988, SOC RESPONSES REGION NICHOLLS RJ, 1995, J COASTAL RES, V14, P303 NORDHAUS WD, 1991, ECON J, V101, P920 PARRY ML, 1988, IMPACT CLIMATE VARIA PEARCE DW, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995 REILLY JM, 1994, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V4, P24 ROSENTHAL DH, 1995, ENERGY J, V16, P77 ROSENZWEIG C, 1994, NATURE, V367, P133 SMIT B, 1996, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V33, P7 SMIT B, 1997, IN PRESS CANADIAN GE SMITHERS J, 1997, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V7, P129 SOHNGEN BL, 1996, IMPACT CLIMATE CHANG STAKHIV EZ, 1996, ADAPTATION CLIMATE C TITUS J, 1992, GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANG TITUS JG, 1991, COAST MANAGE, V19, P171 TOL RSJ, 1995, ENVIRON RESOUR ECON, V5, P353 VOLONTE C, 1995, J COASTAL RES, V14, P285 VOLONTE CR, 1995, J COASTAL RES, V14, P262 WATSON RT, 1998, REGIONAL IMPACTS CLI, V1, P1 WEST JJ, 1997, CLIMATE CHANGE RISK YOHE GW, 1996, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V32, P387 NR 46 TC 16 J9 GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANGE BP 109 EP 123 PY 1998 PD JUL VL 8 IS 2 GA 101FX UT ISI:000074859900002 ER PT J AU Rajan, SC TI Climate change dilemma: technology, social change or both? An examination of long-term transport policy choices in the United States SO ENERGY POLICY LA English DT Article C1 Tellus Inst, Energy Grp, Boston, MA 02116 USA. RP Rajan, SC, Tellus Inst, Energy Grp, 11 Arlington St, Boston, MA 02116 USA. AB Time is fast running out for formulating a viable global climate policy regime even as it seems obvious that the major initiative will have to come from the United States, which Currently appears indisposed to take any meaningful action at all. This paper reviews the prospects for emissions reductions in the US passenger transport sector and the technical, economic, social, and political barriers to developing policies that focus solely on technology or pricing. Using scenarios it shows that, in order to meet stringent emissions targets over the coming half-century, technology and pricing policies may have to be supplemented by strategies to change life-styles and land uses in ways that effectively reduce car dependence. In the medium to long term, bold initiatives that treat vehicle users as citizens capable of shifting their interests and behaviour could form kernels of social change that in turn provide opportunities for removing many of the social and political constraints. (c) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *AEO, 2003, ANN EN OUTL EN INF A *ICPP, 2001, CLIM CHANG 2001 SCI *IPCC, 1999, IPCC SPEC REP AV GLO MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 *IWG, 2000, ORNLCON476 IWG *TCRP, 2002, 74 TCRP *TCRP, 2003, TRAV MATT MIT CLIM C *WBGU, 2003, CLIM PROT STRAT 21 C AARTS H, 2000, J ENVIRON PSYCHOL, V20, P75 AGRAS J, 1999, CONTEMP ECON POLICY, V17, P296 ASLAM MA, 2002, BUILDING KYOTO PROTO BAILIE A, 2001, AM WAY KYOTO PROTOCO BENAKIVA ME, 1985, MIT PRESS SERIES TRA, V9 BERNOW S, 2001, ENV FUTURES US EARLY BOARNET M, 2001, TRANSPORT RES A-POL, V35, P823 BOARNET MG, 2001, TRAVEL DESIGN INFLUE BROWN MB, 2001, SCI TECHNOL HUM VAL, V26, P56 CALDEIRA K, 2003, SCIENCE, V299, P2052 CALTHORPE P, 2001, REGIONAL CITY PLANNI CERVERO R, 1986, SUBURBAN GRIDLOCK CRANE R, 1998, TRANSPORT RES D-TR E, V3, P225 DAVIS SC, 2003, TRANSPORTATION ENERG DELUCCHI M, 2000, SHOULD WE TRY GET PR DUNLAP RE, 1984, SOC SCI QUART, V65, P1013 EWING R, 2003, AM J HEALTH PROMOT, V18, P47 EWING RH, 1994, ENV RESOURCES ISSUES, V21 FREEMAN L, 2001, J AM PLANN ASSOC, V67, P69 GORHAM R, 2003, SOCIAL CHANGE SUSTAI GREENE DL, 1998, ENERG POLICY, V26, P595 GREENING LA, 2004, ENERG ECON, V26, P1 GRUBLER A, 1991, ENERGY SUSTAINABLE D, P1397 HAKIM D, 2002, NY TIMES 1210, C1 HANDY SL, 2003, ANN M TRANSP RES BOA HEAPS C, 1998, CONVENTIONAL WORLDS HOFFERT MI, 2002, SCIENCE, V295, P981 KEITH DW, 2003, SCIENCE, V301, P315 KITAMURA R, 1997, TRANSPORTATION, V24, P125 LACKNER KS, 2003, SCIENCE, V300, P1677 LAVE C, 1999, ESSAYS TRANSPORTATIO LEIMBACH M, 2003, ENERG POLICY, V31, P1033 MCCRIGHT AM, 2003, SOC PROBL, V50, P348 MCFARLAND AS, 1984, ANNU REV ENERG ENV, V9, P501 MYERS D, 2001, HOUS POLICY DEBATE, V12, P633 NAKICENOVIC N, 2003, MODEL RUNS MESSAGE C NEUMAYER E, 2000, ECOL ECON, V33, P185 PLOTKIN SE, 1997, ENERG POLICY, V25, P1179 POTERBA JM, 1991, TAX POLICY EC RAJAN SC, 1996, PITT SERIES POLICY I SALOMON I, 2002, SOCIAL CHANGE SUSTAI SCHAFER A, 2000, TRANSPORT RES A-POL, V34, P171 SHELLER M, 2000, INT J URBAN REGIONAL, V24, P737 SKOCPOL T, 1993, ACTES RECHERCHE MAR, P21 STEG L, 1999, PUBLIC MONEY MANAGE, V19, P63 STERN PC, 2000, J SOC ISSUES, V56, P407 TAYLOR MAP, 2003, TRANSPORT POLICY, V10, P165 TERTOOLEN G, 1998, TRANSPORT RES A-POL, V32, P171 VERPLANKEN B, 1994, J APPL SOC PSYCHOL, V24, P285 WALLS M, 1999, NATL TAX J, V52, P53 WEST SE, 2004, J PUBLIC EC, V88 ZAHAVI Y, 1981, DOTRSPADBP107 NR 60 TC 1 J9 ENERG POLICY BP 664 EP 679 PY 2006 PD APR VL 34 IS 6 GA 016VQ UT ISI:000235649300003 ER PT J AU Cowie, A Pingoud, K Schlamadinger, B TI Stock changes or fluxes? Resolving terminological confusion in the debate on land-use change and forestry SO CLIMATE POLICY LA English DT Review C1 NSW Dept Primary Ind, Beecroft, NSW 2119, Australia. Finnish Forest Res Inst, FI-00170 Helsinki, Finland. Cooperat Res Ctr Greenhouse Accounting, Canberra, ACT, Australia. VTT, FI-02044 Espoo, Finland. Joanneum Res Inst Energy Res, A-8010 Graz, Austria. RP Cowie, A, NSW Dept Primary Ind, POB 100, Beecroft, NSW 2119, Australia. AB This article collates definitions of some key terms commonly used in greenhouse gas reporting and accounting for the Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) sector, and highlights areas of ambiguity and divergent interpretations of key concepts. It uses the example of harvested wood products to demonstrate the impact of different interpretations. The objective is to facilitate clear communication amongst negotiators and practitioners in relation to the terms emissions, removals, sources and sink. Confusion and misunderstandings that have arisen in the past are rooted in diverging interpretations of the terms 'emissions' and 'removals' in the context of land use and wood products. One interpretation sees emissions and removals to be approximated by a change in carbon stocks in a number of selected carbon pools that may include or exclude harvested wood products. Another interpretation views emissions and removals as gross fluxes between the atmosphere and the land/wood products system. The various alternative approaches that have been proposed for reporting for harvested wood products are applicable to one or the other of these interpretations: the stock-change and production approaches, focused on stock changes, are applicable to the first interpretation; whereas the atmospheric flow and simple decay approaches focus on fluxes, as in the second interpretation. Whether emissions/removals are approximated by stock change or from gross fluxes, it is critical that a consistent approach is applied across the whole LULUCF/AFOLU sector. Approaches based on stock change are recommended over those based on fluxes. CR *AGO, 2005, AUSTR METH EST GREEN *IPCC, 2003, TERMS REF TABL CONT *UNFCCC, 1992, UN FRAM CONV CLIM CH *UNFCCC, 1997, KYOT PROT UN FRAM CO *UNFCCC, 2001, MARR ACC MARR DECL *UNFCCC, 2003, FCCCTP20037 UNFCCC *UNFCCC, 2004, GUID PREP NAT COMM P *UNFCCC, 2005, FCCCCP200410ADD2 UNF *UNFCCC, 2005, TABL COMM REP FORM L APPS M, 1997, ACCOUNTING SYSTEM CO BAGGOTT SL, 2005, UK GREENHOUSE GAS IN BROWN S, 1998, EVALUATING APPROACHE CIAIS P, 2006, IN PRESS GLOBAL GEOC COWIE AL, 2005, 38 IEA FORDROBERTSON J, 2003, 20035 MAF HOUGHTON JT, 1997, GREENHOUSE GAS INVEN HOUGHTON JT, 1997, GREENHOUSE GAS INVEN, V1 HOUGHTON JT, 1997, GREENHOUSE GAS INVEN, V3 LIM B, 1999, ENVIRON SCI POLICY, V2, P207 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 NABUURS GJ, 2001, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V49, P377 NABUURS GJ, 2003, GOOD PRACTICE GUIDAN PENMAN J, 2003, IPCC NATL GREENHOUSE PINGOUD K, 2004, 38 IEA SCHLAMADINGER B, 2003, GOOD PRACTICE GUIDAN WATSON RT, 2000, LAND USE LAND USE CH WINJUM JK, 1998, FOREST SCI, V44, P272 NR 27 TC 0 J9 CLIM POLICY BP 161 EP 179 PY 2006 VL 6 IS 2 GA 115XL UT ISI:000242767000001 ER PT J AU Sivakumar, MVK Das, HP Brunini, O TI Impacts of present and future climate variability and change on agriculture and forestry in the arid and semi-arid tropics SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 World Meteorol Org, CH-1211 Geneva, Switzerland. Indian Meteorol Dept, Pune 411005, Maharashtra, India. Ctr Ecol & Biophys, BR-13020430 Campinas, SP, Brazil. RP Sivakumar, MVK, World Meteorol Org, 7Bis Ave Paix, CH-1211 Geneva, Switzerland. AB The arid and semi-arid regions account for approximately 30% of the world total area and are inhabited by approximately 20% of the total world population. Issues of present and future climate variability and change on agriculture and forestry in the arid and semi-arid tropics of the world were examined and discussion under each of these issues had been presented separately for Asia, Africa and Latin America. Several countries in tropical Asia have reported increasing surface temperature trends in recent decades. Although, there is no definite trend discernible in the long-term mean for precipitation for the tropical Asian region, many countries have shown a decreasing trend in rainfall in the past three decades. African rainfall has changed substantially over the last 60 yr and a number of theoretical, modelling and empirical analyses have suggested that noticeable changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme events, including floods may occur when there are only small changes in climate. Climate in Latin America is affected by the El Ni (n) over tildeo-southern oscillation (ENSO) phases and there is a close relationship between the increase and decrease of rainfall depending upon the warm or cold phases of the phenomenon. Over land regions of Asia, the projected area-averaged annual mean warming is likely to be 1.6 +/- 0.2 degrees C in the 2020s, 3.1 +/- 0.3 degrees C in the 2050s, and 4.6 +/- 0.4 degrees C in the 2080s and the models show high uncertainty in projections of future winter and summer precipitation. Future annual warming across Africa is projected to range from 0.2 degrees C per decade to more than 0.5 degrees C per decade, while future changes in mean seasonal rainfall in Africa are less well defined. In Latin America, projections indicate a slight increase in temperature and changes in precipitation. Impacts of climate variability and changes are discussed with suitable examples. Agricultural productivity in tropical Asia is sensitive not only to temperature increases, but also to changes in the nature and characteristics of monsoon. Simulations of the impacts of climate change using crop simulation models show that crop yield decreases due to climate change could have serious impacts on food security in tropical Asia. Climate change is likely to cause environmental and social stress in many of Asia's rangelands and drylands. In the arid and semi-arid tropics of Africa, which are already having difficulty coping with environmental stress, climate change resulting in increased frequencies of drought poses the greatest risk to agriculture. Impacts were described as those related to projected temperature increases, the possible consequences to water balance of the combination of enhanced temperatures and changes in precipitation and sensitivity of different crops/cropping systems to projected changes. In Latin America, agriculture and water resources are most affected through the impact of extreme temperatures (excessive heat, frost) and the changes in rainfall (droughts, flooding). Adaptation potential in the arid and semi-arid tropics of Asia, Africa and Latin America was described using suitable examples. It is emphasized that approaches need to be prescriptive and dynamic, rather than descriptive and static. 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P297 SOMARATNE S, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE VARIA, P129 SRIVASTAVA HN, 1992, MAUSAM, V43, P7 SUPPIAH R, 1997, INT J CLIMATOL, V17, P87 THORNTHWAITE CW, 1948, GEOGR REV, V38, P55 TOUKOUA D, 1986, AGROMETEOROLOG GROUN TUCKER CJ, 1991, SCIENCE, V253, P299 VERGARA G, 2001, AN 12 C BRAS AGR 3 R, P131 WAGGONER PE, 1992, INT CROP SCI, V1 WAGNER D, 1996, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V33, P385 WEBSTER PJ, 1998, J GEOPHYS RES-OCEANS, V103, P14451 WHETTON P, 1994, CLIMATE IMPACT ASSES, P21 WIGLEY TML, 1985, NATURE, V316, P106 WIJERATNE MA, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE VARIA WULLSCHLEGER SD, 1992, CAN J FOREST RES, V22, P1717 ZHU YL, 1996, INT J CLIMATOL, V16, P617 NR 137 TC 3 J9 CLIMATIC CHANGE BP 31 EP 72 PY 2005 PD MAY VL 70 IS 1-2 GA 942EG UT ISI:000230265100004 ER PT J AU Kane, SM Shogren, JF TI Linking adaptation and mitigation in climate change policy SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 NOAA, Off Global Programs, Silver Spring, MD 20940 USA. Univ Wyoming, Dept Econ & Finance, Laramie, WY 82071 USA. RP Kane, SM, NOAA, Off Global Programs, Silver Spring, MD 20940 USA. AB How people privately and collectively adapt to climate risk can affect the costs and benefits of public mitigation policy (e.g., Kyoto); an obvious point often neglected in actual policy making. Herein we use the economic theory of endogenous risk to address this optimal mix of mitigation and adaptation strategies, and examine how increased variability in climate change threats affects this mix. We stress that a better understanding of the cross-links between mitigation and adaptation would potentially make it possible to provide more risk reduction with less wealth. Policies that are formulated without considering the cross-links can unintentionally undermine the effectiveness of public sector policies and programs because of unaddressed conflicts between the strategies. We also discuss the cross-disciplinary lessons to be learned from this literature, and identify important research questions to spur discussion in the next round of inquiry. 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The social and economic implications of atmospheric change and biodiversity SO ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING AND ASSESSMENT LA English DT Article C1 Int Federat Inst Adv Studies, Toronto, ON M5R 2S9, Canada. RP Timmerman, P, Int Federat Inst Adv Studies, 39 Spadina Rd, Toronto, ON M5R 2S9, Canada. AB The social and economic implications of atmospheric change on biodiversity need to be seen in a global context of major shifts in the conceptualization and management of our relationship with nature. Traditionally, we have conceptualized the atmosphere and the other creatures of the biosphere as separate from the human, but their quasi-autonomy is now becoming subject to more and more human management, This raises not only economic issues, but social, political, and ethical concerns that will have substantial influence on public policy. Among these are the commodification of genetic material; the privatization of traditional knowledge, acid the management of information. in this broader context, the paper examines an array of current and proposed strategies of response to changes in biodiversity as a result of climatic and other stresses. CR *BIOD WORK GROUP, 1994, CAN BIOD STRAT CAN R *ENV CAN, 1994, BIOD CAN SCI ASS *IIED, 1992, WHAT IS BIOD WORTH D *MIN FOR AFF DEV C, 1995, BIOL DIV *UN ENV PROGR, 1992, WORLD ENV 1972 1992 *US DEP INT COMM E, 1994, BIODIVERSITY ECOSYST GIDDENS A, 1990, CONSEQUENCES MODERNI GOODLAND R, 1993, ECOL ECON, V8, P85 HARRIESJONES P, IN PRESS SIGNAL FAIL MARKHAM A, 1995, SOME LIKE IT HOT CLI MCNALLY R, 1994, PHILOSOPHY, P211 MEYER WB, 1995, GEOGRAPHIES GLOBAL C, P302 MUNN RE, 1996, ATMOSPHERIC CHANGE B NAGEL T, 1986, VIEW NOWHERE PERRINGS C, 1994, BIODIVERSITY CONSERV PETERS RL, 1992, GLOBAL WARMING BIOL RANDALL A, 1988, BIODIVERSITY, P217 SWANSON TM, 1995, EC ECOLOGY BIODIVERS VONWEIZSACKER C, 1993, GLOBAL ECOLOGY NEW A, P117 NR 19 TC 0 J9 ENVIRON MONIT ASSESS BP 111 EP 122 PY 1998 PD FEB VL 49 IS 2-3 GA YX045 UT ISI:000072000900002 ER PT J AU Metz, B Berk, M den Elzen, M de Vries, B van Vuuren, D TI Towards an equitable global climate change regime: compatibility with Article 2 of the Climate Change Convention and the link with sustainable development SO CLIMATE POLICY LA English DT Article C1 Natl Inst Publ Hlth & Environm, RIVM, NL-3720 BA Bilthoven, Netherlands. RP Metz, B, Natl Inst Publ Hlth & Environm, RIVM, POB 1, NL-3720 BA Bilthoven, Netherlands. AB In this paper we argue that the discussion on how to get to an equitable global climate change regime requires a long-term context. Some key dimensions of this discussion are responsibility, capability and development needs. Each of these, separately or in combination, has been used in designing schemes for differentiation of commitments to limit or reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Many implementation problems of these proposals are often side-stepped. In particular, some proposals may be incompatible with Article 2 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), i.e. they are unlikely to keep the option open of long-term stabilisation of atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations at relatively low levels. We present some evidence that shifting the emphasis from emission reduction to sustainable development needs can contribute significantly to relieving the threat of human-induced climate change. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. 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RP Pandey, DN, Indian Inst Forest Management, Bhopal 462003, India. AB Fossil-fuel burning and deforestation have emerged as principal anthropogenic sources of rising atmospheric CO2 and consequential global warming. Variability in temperature, precipitation, snow cover, sea level and extreme weather events provide collateral evidence of global climate change. I review recent advances on causes and consequences of global climate change and its impact on nature and society. I also examine options for climate change mitigation. Impact of climate change on ecology, economy and society the three pillars of sustainability - is increasing. Emission reduction, although most useful, is also politically sensitive for economic reasons. Proposals of the geoengineering for iron fertilization of oceans or manipulation of solar flux using stratospheric scatters are yet not feasible for scientific and environmental reasons. Forests as carbon sinks, therefore, are required to play a multifunctional role that includes, but is not limited to, biodiversity conservation and maintenance of ecosystem functions; yield of goods and services to the society; enhancing the carbon storage in trees, woody vegetation and soils; and providing social and economic well-being of people. This paper explores strategies in that direction and concludes that the management of multifunctional forests over landscape continuum, employing tools of conservation biology and restoration ecology, shall be the vital option for climate change mitigation in future. 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1998, FOREST SCI, V44, P272 YADAV RR, 1997, QUATERNARY RES, V48, P187 NR 128 TC 6 J9 CURR SCI BP 593 EP 602 PY 2002 PD SEP 10 VL 83 IS 5 GA 595CT UT ISI:000178089800022 ER PT J AU van den Bergh, JCJM TI Optimal climate policy is a utopia: from quantitative to qualitative cost-benefit analysis SO ECOLOGICAL ECONOMICS LA English DT Article C1 Free Univ Amsterdam, Fac Econ & Business Adm, Dept Spatial Econ, NL-1081 HV Amsterdam, Netherlands. Free Univ Amsterdam, Inst Environm Studies, NL-1081 HV Amsterdam, Netherlands. RP van den Bergh, JCJM, Free Univ Amsterdam, Fac Econ & Business Adm, Dept Spatial Econ, De Boelelaan 1105, NL-1081 HV Amsterdam, Netherlands. AB The dominance of quantitative cost-benefit analysis (CBA) and optimality concepts in the economic analysis of climate policy is criticised. Among others, it is argued to be based in a misplaced interpretation of policy for a complex climate-economy system as being analogous to individual inter-temporal welfare optimisation. The transfer of quantitative CBA and optimality concepts reflects an overly ambitious approach that does more harm than good. An alternative approach is to focus the attention on extreme events, structural change and complexity. It is argued that a qualitative rather than a quantitative CBA that takes account of these aspects can support the adoption of a minimax regret approach or precautionary principle in climate policy. This means: implement stringent GHG reduction policies as soon as possible. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 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RP Meadows, ME, Univ Cape Town, Dept Environm & Geog Sci, ZA-7701 Rondebosch, South Africa. AB The Western Cape Province of South Africa has a long history of human occupation and utilisation; the impact of colonial settlement (late 17th century onwards) on agriculture has been especially prominent. The Mediterranean-type climate of the Western Cape results in landscapes which are potentially susceptible to land degradation, perhaps even desertification. The Swartland is a gently undulating inland plateau underlain largely by fine-grained and nutrient-rich shales of the pre-Cambrian Malmesbury group. Agriculture is the dominant land use to the extent of wholesale landscape transformation. The area has been subject to significant levels of land degradation in the past, manifesting itself as widespread gully erosion. During the 1940s, the region was described as on the verge of economic collapse due to the severity of soil erosion, but concerted soil conservation and education efforts under the political dispensation of the time appear to have averted that scenario. The region now faces the combined challenges of potentially rapid climate change under a considerably altered socio-economic and political order. Downscaled climate change scenarios facilitate a regional assessment of changes in the parameters affecting soil erosion susceptibility in the Swartland and leads to a consideration of the implications of such scenarios for the continuation of contemporary land use practices. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *IPCC, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 ACOCKS JPH, 1988, MEM BOT SURV S AFR, V57, P1 BAXTER AJ, 1994, HIST BIOL, V9, P61 BENNETT HH, 1945, SOIL EROSION LAND US CONACHER AJ, 1998, LAND DEGRADATION MED DELIUS P, 2000, J S AFR STUD, V26, P719 DODSON B, 2003, IN PRESS FALLING STO DODSON B, 2003, IN PRESS INT J ENV H HEWITSON BC, 1996, CLIMATE RES, V7, P85 HOFFMAN MT, 1997, VEGETATION SO AFRICA, P507 HOFFMAN MT, 1999, LAND DEGRADATION S A HOFFMAN MT, 2001, NATURE DIVIDED LAND HUNTLEY B, 1989, S AFRICAN ENV 21 CEN MCCANN JC, 1999, GREEN LAND BROWN LAN MEADOWS ME, IN PRESS GEOGRAPHICA MEADOWS ME, IN PRESS S AFRICAN J MOREL A, 1998, THESIS U CAPE TOWN PLATZKY L, 1985, SURPLUS PEOPLE FORCE PRESTONWHYTE RA, 1988, ATMOSPHERE WEATHER S SIMON D, 2000, GEOGRAPHY S AFRICA C, P89 TALBOT WJ, 1947, SWARTLAND SANDVELD TANKARD AJ, 1982, CRUSTAL EVOLUTION S THOMAS DSG, 1994, DESERTIFICATION EXPL VERSTER E, 1992, ENV MANAGEMENT S AFR, P181 WATSON HK, 1997, S AFRICAN GEOGRAPHIC, V79, P27 WEAVER A, 1989, S AFRICAN GEOGRAPHIC, V71, P32 NR 26 TC 1 J9 ENVIRON SCI POLICY BP 17 EP 28 PY 2003 VL 6 IS 1 GA 739NK UT ISI:000186353200003 ER PT J AU Manyena, SB TI The concept of resilience revisited SO DISASTERS LA English DT Article C1 Northumbria Univ, Disaster & Dev Ctr, Sch Appl Sci, Newcastle Upon Tyne NE1 8ST, Tyne & Wear, England. RP Manyena, SB, Northumbria Univ, Disaster & Dev Ctr, Sch Appl Sci, 6 North St, Newcastle Upon Tyne NE1 8ST, Tyne & Wear, England. AB The intimate connections between disaster recovery by and the resilience of affected communities have become common features of disaster risk reduction programmes since the adoption of The Hyogo Framework for Action 2005-2015. Increasing attention is now paid to the capacity of disaster-affected communities to 'bounce back' or to recover with little or no external assistance following a disaster. This highlights the need for a change in the disaster risk reduction work culture, with stronger emphasis being put on resilience rather than just need or vulnerability. However, varied conceptualisations of resilience pose new philosophical challenges. Yet achieving a consensus on the concept remains a test for disaster research and scholarship. This paper reviews the concept in terms of definitional issues, the role of vulnerability in resilience discourse and its meaning, and the differences between vulnerability and resilience. It concludes with some of the more immediately apparent implications of resilience thinking for the way we view and prepare for disasters. 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Govt Mali, Minist Dev Rural, Inst Econ Rurale, Bamako, Mali. RP Butt, TA, Texas A&M Univ, Dept Agr Econ, College Stn, TX 77843 USA. AB The Mali agricultural sector and the country's food security are potentially vulnerable to climate change. Policies may be able to mitigate some of the climate change vulnerability. This article investigates several policy changes that may reduce vulnerability, including climate-specific and other policies. The policy set includes migration of cropping patterns, development of high-temperature-resistant cultivars, reduction in soil productivity loss, cropland expansion, adoption of improved cultivars, and changes in trade patterns. When all policies are considered together.. results under climate change show an annual gain of $252 million in economic benefits as opposed to a $161 million loss without policy adjustment. Simultaneously, undernourishment is reduced to 17% of the Malian population as compared with 64% without policy adjustment. We also find tradeoffs in cases between economic benefits and undernourishment. Policies are also studied individually and collectively. Overall, the results indicate that policy can play an important role in reducing climate change vulnerability in Mali. 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SO ENVIRONMENT LA English DT Article CR *NAT RES COUNC, 2002, ABR CLIM CHANG IN SU ARNELL NW, 2002, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V53, P413 BARNETT J, 2001, MEANING ENV SECURITY BERK MM, 2001, CLIMATE POLICY, V1, P465 CHANGNON SA, 1999, NAT HAZARDS, V18, P287 CHANGNON SA, 2000, B AM METEOROL SOC, V81, P437 DELWORTH TL, 2000, J CLIMATE, V13, P721 DICKSON B, 2002, NATURE 0425, P832 GILLE ST, 2002, SCIENCE 0215, P1275 GLEICK PH, 1989, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V15, P309 GRITSEVSKYI A, 2000, ENERG POLICY, V28, P907 HERRON N, IN PRESS J ENV MANAG HOUGHTON JT, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 ISARIN RFB, 1999, EARTH-SCI REV, V48, P1 JONES RN, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P403 KIM K, 2001, GEOPHYSICAL RES LETT, V28, P293 LOCKWOOD JG, 2001, INT J CLIMATOLOGY, V21, P153 MATEAR RJ, 2000, GEOCHEMISTRY GEOPHYS, V1 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 MCGREGOR J, 1994, FOOD POLICY, V19, P120 METZ B, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 MULLER B, 2002, REJECTING KYOTO STUD MUNASINGHE M, 2000, GUIDANCE PAPERS CROS MYERS N, 1995, ENV EXODUS EMERGENT NAKICENOVIC N, 2000, EMISSIONS SCENARIOS PACHUAURI T, 2001, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V48, P273 PIELKE RA, 1998, WEATHER FORECAST 2, V13, P621 PITTOCK AB, 2002, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V53, P393 SCHNEIDER SH, 2001, NATURE, V411, P17 STOCKER TF, 1999, INT J EARTH SCI, V88, P365 STOCKER TF, 2000, QUATERNARY SCI REV, V19, P301 TOPPING J, 1997, CHEM ENG NEWS 0922, P22 WATSON RT, 1998, REGIONAL IMPACTS CLI, V1, P1 WATSON RT, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 WESTING AH, 1992, ENVIRON CONSERV, V19, P201 WIGLEY TML, 1996, NATURE, V379, P240 NR 36 TC 1 J9 ENVIRONMENT BP 20 EP 36 PY 2002 PD DEC VL 44 IS 10 GA 618UY UT ISI:000179436700004 ER PT J AU Schneider, SH Easterling, WE Mearns, LO TI Adaptation: Sensitivity to natural variability, agent assumptions and dynamic climate changes SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 Stanford Univ, Dept Biol Sci, Stanford, CA 94305 USA. Penn State Univ, Dept Geog, University Pk, PA 16802 USA. Natl Ctr Atmospher Res, Environm & Societal Impacts Grp, Boulder, CO 80307 USA. RP Schneider, SH, Stanford Univ, Dept Biol Sci, Stanford, CA 94305 USA. AB The role of adaptation in impact assessment and integrated assessment of climate policy is briefly reviewed. Agriculture in the US is taken as exemplary of this issue. Historic studies in which no adaptation is assumed (so-called "dumb farmer") versus farmer-agents blessed with perfect foresight (so-called "clairvoyant farmer") are contrasted, and considered limiting cases as compared to "realistic farmers." What kinds of decision rules such realistic farmer-agents would adopt to deal with climate change involves a range of issues. These include degrees of belief the climate is actually changing, knowledge about how it will change, foresight on how technology is changing, estimation of what will happen in competitive granaries and assumptions about what governmental policies will be in various regions and over time. Clearly, a transparent specification of such agent-based decision rules is essential to model adaptation explicitly in any impact assessment. Moreover, open recognition of the limited set of assumptions contained in any one study of adaptation demands that authors clearly note that each individual study can represent only a fraction of plausible outcomes. A set of calculations using the Erosion Productivity Impact Calculator (EPIC) crop model is offered here as an example of explicit decision rules on adaptive behavior on climate impacts. The model is driven by a 2xCO(2) regional climate model scenario (from which a "mock" transient scenario was devised) to calculate yield changes for farmer-agents that practice no adaptation, perfect adaptation and 20-year-lagged adaptation, the latter designed to mimic the masking effects of natural variability on farmers' capacity to see how climate is changing. The results reinforce the expectation that the likely effects of natural variability, which would mask a farmer's capacity to detect climate change, is to place the calculated impacts of climate changes in two regions of the US in between that of perfect and no adaptation. Finally, the use of so-called "hedonic" methods (in which land prices in different regions with different current average climates are used to derive implicitly farmers' adaptive responses to hypothesized future climate changes) is briefly reviewed. It is noted that this procedure in which space and time are substituted, amounts to "ergodic economics." Such cross-sectional analyses are static, and thus neglect the dynamics of both climate and societal evolution. Furthermore, such static methods usually consider only a single measure of change (local mean annual temperature), rather than higher moments like climatic variability, diurnal temperature range, etc. These implicit assumptions in ergodic economics make use of such cross-sectional studies limited for applications to integrated assessments of the actual dynamics of adaptive capacity. While all such methods are appropriate for sensitivity analyses and help to define a plausible range of outcomes, none is by itself likely to define the range of plausible adaptive capacities that might emerge in response to climate change scenarios. CR *DOE, 1980, 13 US DOE *NAT AC SCI, 1991, POL IMPL GREENH WARM ADAMS RM, 1999, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V41, P363 AUSUBEL JH, 1991, AM SCI, V79, P210 AYRES R, 1992, REGIONS GLOBAL WARMI CARTER TR, 1994, IPCC TECHNICAL GUIDE CHEN RS, 1983, SOCIAL SCI RES CLIMA DARWIN RF, 1999, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V41, P371 EASTERLING WE, UNPUB CLIM CHANGE EHRLICH PR, 1995, STORK PLOW GIORGI F, 1998, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V40, P457 HOUGHTON JT, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995 HULME M, 1999, NATURE, V397, P688 KAISER HM, 1993, AM J AGR ECON, V75, P387 KARL TR, 1998, B AM METEOROL SOC, V79, P231 KATES RW, 1985, CLIMATE IMPACT ASSES KOLSTAD CD, 1999, ADJUSTMENT COSTS ENV LORENZ EN, 1968, METEOROL MONOGR, V8, P1 LORENZ EN, 1970, J APPL METEOROL, V9, P325 MEARNS LO, UNPUB CLIM CHANGE MEARNS LO, 1984, J CLIM APPL METEOROL, V23, P1601 MENDELSOHN R, 1996, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V80, P55 MENDELSOHN R, 2000, IN PRESS CLIM CHANGE MORGAN MG, 1996, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V34, P337 MOSS RH, 1997, ELEMENTS CHANGE 1996 NORDHAUS WD, 1992, SCIENCE, V258, P1315 NORDHAUS WD, 1994, AM SCI, V82, P45 NORDHAUS WD, 1997, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V37, P315 OVERPECK JT, 1992, GEOLOGY, V20, P1071 REILLY JM, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, CH13 REILLY JM, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE INTEG, P47 RISBEY JS, 1999, MITIGATION ADAPTATIO, V4, P137 ROOT TL, 1995, SCIENCE, V269, P334 ROSENBERG NJ, 1992, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V21, P385 ROSENBERG NJ, 1993, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V24, P1 ROSENBERG NJ, 1994, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V4, P49 ROSENZWEIG C, 1994, NATURE, V367, P133 ROTHMAN DS, 1997, ENVIRON MONIT ASSESS, V46, P23 ROUGHGARDEN T, 1999, ENERG POLICY, V27, P415 SCHNEIDER SH, 1980, ANNU REV ENERG ENV, V5, P107 SCHNEIDER SH, 1985, GLOBAL POSSIBLE, P363 SCHNEIDER SH, 1996, NATO ASI SER, V137, P77 SCHNEIDER SH, 1997, ENVIRON MODEL ASSESS, V2, P229 SCHNEIDER SH, 2000, UNPUB PACIFIC ASIAN SMIT B, 1996, GREAT LAKES ST LAWRE, P125 SMITH JB, 1988, POTENTIAL EFFECTS GL, V1 SMITH JB, 1988, POTENTIAL EFFECTS GL, V2 WATTERSON IG, 1995, AUST METEOROL MAG, V44, P111 WEST JJ, 1998, CLIMATE CHANGE RISK WILLIAMS JR, 1990, USDA TECH B, V1768, P3 YOHE GW, 1990, COAST MANAGE, V18, P403 YOHE GW, 1996, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V32, P387 YOHE GW, 1991, POLICY SCI, V24, P245 YOHE GW, 1992, EC ISSUES GLOBAL CLI, P200 NR 54 TC 12 J9 CLIMATIC CHANGE BP 203 EP 221 PY 2000 PD APR VL 45 IS 1 GA 323WX UT ISI:000087588900012 ER PT J AU MOORE, EJ SMITH, JW TI CLIMATIC-CHANGE AND MIGRATION FROM OCEANIA - IMPLICATIONS FOR AUSTRALIA, NEW-ZEALAND AND THE UNITED-STATES-OF-AMERICA SO POPULATION AND ENVIRONMENT LA English DT Article C1 UNIV ADELAIDE,DEPT GEOG,ADELAIDE,SA 5005,AUSTRALIA. AB It is possible that climatic change may stimulate population movements as people turn to migration as one strategy of adaptation. This paper attempts to assess possible migration flows which may occur, in response to climatic shifts over the next thirty years, from small island states in the south-west Pacific ocean region to the United States, Australia and New Zealand. It is argued that the small island states appear vulnerable to climatic change, with low coral atolls being most at risk. Adverse impacts of climatic change will be one extra pressure on small island states, many of which are already struggling to cope with sustainable management of their natural resources and with the demands of their rapidly growing populations for education, housing and employment. The migration strategy is likely to entail significant medium-term health, psychological and social costs for some Pacific island migrants as they try to move or cope with life in western industrialised societies. CR 1986, PACIFIC ISLANDS MONT, V57, P11 1994, ADVERTISER 0616, P13 1994, AUSTRALIAN 0802, P12 *AUSTR BUR STAT, 1994, 28220 CAT *AUSTR BUR STAT, 1994, 31010 CAT *AUSTR BUR STAT, 1994, 62550 CAT *AUSTR INT DEV ASS, 1993, MIGR AUSTR S PAC *AUSTR JOINT STAND, 1989, AUSTR REL S PAC *AUSTR NZ ENV COUN, 1990, NAT GREENH STR AUSTR *NZ DEP STAT, 1993, NZ OFF YB *WORLD RES I, 1992, 1992 ENV ALM BARKAN ER, 1992, CONTRIBUTIONS ETHNIC, V30 BEAGLEHOLE R, 1977, J CHRON DIS, V30, P803 BEDFORD R, 1990, NZ POPULATION REV, V16, P34 BETTS K, 1988, IDEOLOGY IMMIGRATION BILNEY G, 1993, MINISTERIAL SEMINAR BIRD E, 1987, ENV HLTH EFFECTS ATM BLAINEY G, 1994, BULLETIN 0830, P22 BROOKFIELD H, 1990, GLOBAL CHANGE HUMAN CALLICK R, 1993, PACIFIC 2010 CHALLEN CARMICHAEL G, 1993, TRANSTASMAN MIGRATIO CHAMBERS A, 1986, 72 U AUCKL DEP ANTHR COLE R, 1993, PACIFIC 2000 CHALLEN CONNELL J, 1988, MONOGRAPH U AUCKLAND, V2 CONNELL JH, 1992, CITIES, V9, P295 DOOS BR, 1994, AMBIO, V23, P124 GANNICOTT K, 1993, PACIFIC 2000 CHALLEN GARRAN R, 1994, WEEKEND AUSTR 0618, P1 GLAZER N, 1994, AUSTRALIAN 0111, P9 GLEICK PH, 1989, AMBIO, V18, P333 GRAVES PE, 1980, J REGIONAL SCI, V20, P227 HARRIS T, 1994, AUSTRALIAN 0902, P5 HARRISON P, 1992, 3RD REVOLUTION HASHIMOTO M, 1991, CLIMATE CHANGE SCI I HEFT R, 1994, AUSTRALIAN 1110, P7 HEFT R, 1994, WEEKEND AUSTR 1112, P14 HOUGHTON JT, 1990, CLIMATE CHANGE IPCC HUGO G, 1984, FAMINE GEOGRAPHICAL HUGO G, 1989, 1ST WORKSH INT GEOGR HUGO G, 1994, AUSTR IMMIGRATION SU JACOBSEN JL, 1989, POPULI, V16, P29 JONES GW, 1993, MINISTERIAL SEMINAR JOSEPH JG, 1983, J CHRON DIS, V36, P507 KAPLAN RD, 1994, ATLANTIC MONTHLY FEB, V273, P44 KATES RW, 1985, CLIMATE IMPACT ASSES KENNEDY P, 1993, PREPARING 21ST CENTU KNUDSON KE, 1977, EXILES MIGRANTS OCEA KRITZ MM, 1990, 216 CORN U WORK PAP MASSEY DS, 1994, SOCIAL CONTRACT, V4, P183 MCGREGOR G, 1990, UN ENV PROGRAM REGIO, V128 MCKNIGHT RE, 1977, EXILES MIGRANTS OCEA MILES J, 1992, ATLANTIC, V270, P41 OCOLLINS M, 1990, UN ENV PROGRAM REGIO, V128 OLIVERSMITH A, 1982, INVOLUNTARY MIGRATIO PERNETTA JC, 1990, UN ENV PROGRAM REGIO, V128 PRIOR I, 1986, NZ INT MIGRATION ROY P, 1989, 6 U SYDN RES I AUSTR SARMA KM, 1991, CLIMATE CHANGE SCI I SATCHELL T, 1994, ADVERTISER 0809, P13 SCHACHTER J, 1982, AM J ECON SOCIOL, V41, P387 SCHNEIDER SH, 1989, SCI AM SEP, P38 SHORT AD, 1988, GREENHOUSE PLANNING SHORT R, 1994, PEOPLE PLACE, V2, P1 SMELLIE P, 1994, AUSTRALIAN 1017, P10 STEWART C, 1994, AUSTRALIAN 0803, P9 SVART LM, 1975, GEOGR REV, V65, P314 TATE M, 1991, 9 AUSTR CATH SOC JUS TEGART WJ, 1993, CLIMATIC CHANGE 1992 TRLIN AD, 1993, ASIAN PACIFIC MIGRAT, V2, P1 WALKER R, 1994, SOCIAL CONTRACT, V4, P86 WHETTON PH, 1993, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V25, P289 WIGLEY TML, 1992, NATURE, V357, P293 NR 72 TC 2 J9 POP ENVIRON BP 105 EP 122 PY 1995 PD NOV VL 17 IS 2 GA TA242 UT ISI:A1995TA24200002 ER PT J AU Hogg, EHT Bernier, PY TI Climate change impacts on drought-prone forests in western Canada SO FORESTRY CHRONICLE LA English DT Article C1 Canadian Forestry Serv, Nat Resources Canada, No Forestry Ctr, Edmonton, AB T6H 3S5, Canada. Canadian Forestry Serv, Nat Resources, Laurentian Forestry Ctr, Ste Foy, PQ G1V 4C7, Canada. RP Hogg, EHT, Canadian Forestry Serv, Nat Resources Canada, No Forestry Ctr, 5320-122 St, Edmonton, AB T6H 3S5, Canada. AB From a climate change perspective, much of the recent international focus on forests has been on their role in taking up carbon dioxide (CO2) from the atmosphere. The question of climate change impacts on forest productivity is also emerging as a critical issue, especially in drought-prone regions such as the western Canadian interior. Because of the complexity of interacting factors, there is uncertainty even in predicting the direction of change in the productivity of Canada's forests as a whole over the next century. In the most climatically vulnerable regions, however, successful adaptation may require more innovative approaches to forest management, coupled with an enhanced capacity for early detection of large-scale changes in forest productivity, dieback and regeneration. CR *ENV CAN, 2004, CLIM TRENDS VAR B AN *NAT CLIM DAT CTR, 2005, CLIM 2004 AUCLAIR AND, 1996, WATER AIR SOIL POLL, V91, P163 BARR AG, 2004, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V126, P237 BETTS RA, 2000, NATURE, V408, P187 CAMILL P, 2005, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V68, P135 CAMPBELL C, 1994, GEOGR PHYS QUATERN, V48, P207 CAO MK, 1998, GLOB CHANGE BIOL, V4, P185 CASE RA, 1995, QUATERNARY RES, V44, P267 CASPERSEN JP, 2000, SCIENCE, V290, P1148 CHEN WJ, 2000, ECOL MODEL, V135, P55 CHHIN S, 2004, TREE-RING RES, V60, P31 DANG QL, 1989, CAN J FOREST RES, V19, P924 DEMPSTER WR, 2004, COMPARISON PREHARVES FLANNIGAN M, 2001, CAN J FOREST RES, V31, P854 FREY BR, 2004, CAN J FOREST RES, V34, P1379 HENDERSON N, 2002, CLIMATE CHANGE IMPAC HOGG EH, 1994, CAN J FOREST RES, V24, P1835 HOGG EH, 1995, WATER AIR SOIL POLL, V82, P391 HOGG EH, 1997, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V84, P115 HOGG EH, 1997, J BIOGEOGR, V24, P527 HOGG EH, 2000, J CLIMATE, V13, P4229 HOGG EH, 2002, CAN J FOREST RES, V32, P823 HOGG EH, 2005, CAN J FOREST RES, V35, P610 HOGG EH, 2005, IN PRESS CAN J FOR R HOPKIN A, 2003, FOREST CHRON, V79, P47 HOUGHTON JT, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 ISEBRANDS JG, 2001, ENVIRON POLLUT, V115, P359 JOHNSTON M, 2005, FOREST CHRON, V81, P683 KRCMARNOZIC E, 2000, BCX387 PAC FOR CTR C KURZ WA, 1999, ECOL APPL, V9, P526 MAN RZ, 1999, FOREST CHRON, V75, P837 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 MEIDINGER D, 1991, B C MIN FOR SPECIAL, V6 MORGAN MG, 2001, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V49, P279 NIGH GD, 2004, FOREST SCI, V50, P659 OHLSON DW, 2005, FOREST CHRON, V81, P672 PAPADOPOL CS, 2000, FOREST CHRON, V76, P139 PETERSON CJ, 2000, SCI TOTAL ENVIRON, V262, P287 PIELKE RA, 1998, GLOB CHANGE BIOL, V4, P461 PRICE DT, 2000, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V101, P81 SAPORTA R, 1998, CANADA COUNTRY STUDY, P319 SCOTT D, 2005, FOREST CHRON, V81, P696 SHUGART H, 2003, FORESTS GLOBAL CLIMA SPITTLEHOUSE DL, 2003, BC J ECOSYSTEMS MANA, V4, P1 SPITTLEHOUSE DL, 2005, FOREST CHRON, V81, P691 STGEORGE S, 2001, CAN J FOREST RES, V31, P457 STGEORGE S, 2002, QUATERNARY RES, V58, P103 UNG CH, 2001, FOREST SCI, V47, P83 VITT DH, 2000, CAN J EARTH SCI, V37, P683 VOLNEY WJA, 2000, AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON, V82, P283 VOLNEY WJA, 2005, FOREST CHRON, V81, P662 WATSON E, 2001, HOLOCENE, V11, P203 WATSON RT, 2000, LAND USE LAND USE CH ZHOU LM, 2001, J GEOPHYS RES-ATMOS, V106, P20069 NR 55 TC 3 J9 FOREST CHRON BP 675 EP 682 PY 2005 PD SEP-OCT VL 81 IS 5 GA 979VW UT ISI:000232974100027 ER PT J AU Luers, AL Lobell, DB Sklar, LS Addams, CL Matson, PA TI A method for quantifying vulnerability, applied to the agricultural system of the Yaqui Valley, Mexico SO GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS LA English DT Article C1 Ctr Environm Sci, Stanford, CA 94305 USA. Policy Inst Int Studies, Stanford, CA 94305 USA. Stanford Univ, Dept Geog & Environm Sci, Stanford, CA 94305 USA. Carnegie Inst, Dept Global Ecol, Stanford, CA 94305 USA. San Francisco State Univ, Dept Geosci, San Francisco, CA 94132 USA. RP Luers, AL, Ctr Environm Sci, Encina Hall Eeast,4th Floor, Stanford, CA 94305 USA. AB We propose measuring vulnerability of selected outcome variables of concern (e.g. agricultural yield) to identified stressors (e.g. climate change) as a function of the state of the variables of concern relative to a threshold of damage, the sensitivity of the variables to the stressors, and the magnitude and frequency of the stressors to which the system is exposed. In addition, we provide a framework for assessing the extent adaptive capacity can reduce vulnerable conditions. We illustrate the utility of this approach by evaluating the vulnerability of wheat yields to climate change and market fluctuations in the Yaqui Valley, Mexico. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *FOOD AGR ORG, 1997, FAOSTAT ROM *IHDP, 2001, SPEC ISS VULN, V2, P1 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 *USAID, USAID FAM EARL WARN ALWANG J, 2001, 0115 WORLD BANK BLAIKIE PM, 1994, RISK NATURAL HAZARDS, V1, P1 BOHLE HG, 1994, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V4, P37 BRIGUGLIO L, 1995, WORLD DEV, V23, P1615 CARPENTER SR, 2001, ECOSYSTEMS, V4, P765 CHAMBERS R, 1989, IDS B, V20, P1 CLARK WC, 2000, 200012 BCSIA HARV U CUTTER SL, 1996, PROG HUM GEOG, V20, P529 DOWNING TE, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE VULNE FOLKE C, 2002, ICSU SERIES SUSTAINA, V3 GLEWWE P, 1998, J DEV ECON, V56, P181 GRIMM V, 1997, OECOLOGIA, V109, P323 GUNDERSON LH, 2000, ANNU REV ECOL SYST, V31, P425 HARRISON JA, 2003, THESIS STANFORD U ST HEITZMANN K, 2002, 0218 WORLD BANK HOLLING CS, 1973, ANNUAL REV ECOLOGY S, V4, P1 KALY U, 2002, DEV B, V58, P33 KASPERSON JX, 2001, INT WORKSH VULN GLOB KASPERSON JX, 2003, HUMAN DIMENSIONS GLO KATES RW, 2001, SCIENCE, V292, P641 KELLY PM, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V47, P325 LOBELL DB, 2002, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V114, P31 LOBELL DB, 2003, AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON, V94, P205 LONERGAN S, 2000, AVISO, V6, P1 MALKIN E, 2002, NY TIMES 1119 MANSURI G, 2002, IFPRI WORLD BANK C R MATSON PA, 1998, SCIENCE, V280, P112 MITCHELL JK, 1989, GEOGR REV, V79, P391 MOSS R, 2000, MEASURING VULNERABIL MOSS RH, 2002, VULNERABILITY CLIMAT MURDOCH J, 1994, AM ECON REV, V84, P221 NAYLOR RL, 2001, 0101 CIMMYT INT MAIZ OSUNA PM, 2003, SECO SERA 2003 PANEK JA, 2000, ECOL APPL, V10, P506 PETERSON GD, 2002, CONSERV ECOL, V6, P1 PETSCHELHELD G, 1999, ENVIRON MODEL ASSESS, V4, P295 PRITCHETT L, 2000, QUANTIFYING VULNERAB RIBOT JC, 1996, CLIMATE VARIABILITY, V1, P1 RIBOT JC, 1995, GEOJOURNAL, V35, P119 SCHELLNHUBER HJ, 1997, GAIA, V6, P19 SCHIMMELPFENNIG D, 1999, GLOBAL ENV CHANGE AG STEPHEN L, 2001, DISASTERS, V25, P113 TURNER BL, 2003, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V100, P8074 TURNER BL, 2003, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V100, P8080 VALDEZ C, 1994, EVALUATION MANAGEMEN WATTS MJ, 1993, PROG HUM GEOG, V17, P43 NR 50 TC 0 J9 GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANGE BP 255 EP 267 PY 2003 PD DEC VL 13 IS 4 GA 751BT UT ISI:000187033500003 ER PT J AU DRIES, I TI DEVELOPMENT OF WETLANDS IN SIERRA-LEONE - FARMERS RATIONALITY OPPOSED TO GOVERNMENT POLICY SO LANDSCAPE AND URBAN PLANNING LA English DT Article RP DRIES, I, CATHOLIC UNIV LEUVEN,DEPT LAND & FOREST MANAGEMENT,KARDINAAL MERCIERLAAN 92,B-3030 HEVERLEE,BELGIUM. AB Over 100 years of government development efforts to stimulate wet rice cultivation in the wetlands of Sierra Leone is reviewed. New technologies such as drainage of mangrove swamps, intensive drainage of inland swamps and mechanized soil management were unable to achieve the desired objectives, to make the country self-sufficient in rice. The introduction of these new technologies frequently had opposite results: acidification, drying out and economic disaster. Only those innovations which fitted into the traditional rice cultivation and which proved to be a success were adapted, namely transplanting methods and the construction of mounds to allow the growing of dryland crops in the wetlands during the dry season, but only after long-term adaptation and trying out by the farmers themselves, following which spontaneous adoption took place. This is substantiated by a case study carried out in inland swamps through Farming Systems Research methods. Government policies appear to run contrary to the objectives of farmers, the former striving to reach national self-sufficiency in rice by introduction of large schemes and completely new and/or alien production systems, whereas the latter attempt to sustain their subsistence production levels through stepwise innovation. The suggestion is made that government in formulating its development policies should take into account the traditional knowledge system of farmers and stimulate participatory research. This would ultimately and more successfully lead to sustainable yield increases without deterioration of the physical environment. CR *WARDA, 1981, RIC STAT YB *WORLD BANK, 1981, 31665L REP *WORLD BANK, 1984, 2087 REP BEST J, 1988, STUDY FARMING SYSTEM BRANDT H, 1973, FEASIBILITY STUDY IN CARPENTER AJ, 1978, RICE AFRICA, P3 JALLOW M, 1986, WETLANDS RICE SUBSAH, P15 KREUL W, 1983, Q J INT AGR, V22, P149 MILLINGTON AC, 1985, Z GEOMORPHOL, V52, P1 RICHARD P, 1985, INDIGENOUS AGR REVOL RICHARD P, 1986, LONDON SERIES GEOGRA, V11 SMALING EMA, 1985, W AFRICA PHASE 2, V1 NR 12 TC 2 J9 LANDSCAPE URBAN PLAN BP 223 EP 229 PY 1991 PD APR VL 20 IS 1-3 GA FP636 UT ISI:A1991FP63600034 ER PT J AU Kaschula, SA Twine, WE Scholes, MC TI Coppice harvesting of fuelwood species on a South African common: Utilizing scientific and indigenous knowledge in community based natural resource management SO HUMAN ECOLOGY LA English DT Article C1 Univ Witwatersrand, Dept Anim Plant & Environm Sci, CAE, Johannesburg, South Africa. RP Kaschula, SA, Univ Witwatersrand, Dept Anim Plant & Environm Sci, CAE, Johannesburg, South Africa. AB The limitations of Community Based Natural Resource Management (CBNRM) with respect to the difficulties of comparing local versus scientific knowledge categories within a bounded definition of 'community' were investigated by means of a study exploring local indigenous knowledge pertaining to harvesting technique, and the impact of soil and species type on the post-harvest coppice response of popular savanna fuelwood species, among rural inhabitants of the Bushbuckridge region of the Limpopo Province, South Africa. Soils and plants were evaluated chiefly in terms of their perceived ability to retain precipitation, making rainfall a driving force in local understanding of environmental productivity. Some indigenous knowledge showed an agreement with biological data, but overall the variability in responses, as well as the diverse scales at which indigenous and scientific knowledge is directed, were too great to allow for simplistic parallels between local ecological indices to be made. Indigenous environmental knowledge was underscored by the perceived symbolic link between environmental and social degradation. It is recommended that environmental managers incorporate indigenous knowledge as a component of a systems-level approach to natural resource management, where biological, cultural, economic, and symbolic aspects of natural resource use are nested within a broader ecosocial system. This approach to indigenous knowledge is offered as an alternative to the simple scientific evaluation that so often characterizes environmental management. 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RP Schell, LM, SUNY Albany, Dept Anthropol, 1400 Washington Ave, Albany, NY 12222 USA. AB The biocultural approach of anthropologists is well suited to understand the interrelationship of urbanism and human biology. Urbanism is a social construction that has continuously changed and presented novel adaptive challenges to its residents. Urban living today involves several biological challenges, of which one is pollution. Using three different types of pollutants as examples, air pollution, lead, and noise, the impact of pollution on human biology (mortality, morbidity, reproduction, and development) can be seen. Chronic exposure to low levels of these pollutants has a small impact on the individual, but so many people are exposed to pollution that the effect species-wide is substantial. Also, disproportionate pollutant exposure by socioeconomically disadvantaged groups exacerbates risk of poor health and well being. 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PSYCHOL MED, V11, P155 WELCH BL, 1970, PHYSL EFFECTS NOISE WESTMAN JC, 1981, ENV HLTH PERSPECT, V41, P291 WJST M, 1993, BRIT MED J, V307, P596 WOLF AW, 1987, HEAVY METALS ENV, P165 WOODRUFF TJ, 1997, ENVIRON HEALTH PERSP, V105, P608 WU TN, 1996, AM J EPIDEMIOL, V143, P792 XU XP, 1995, ARCH ENVIRON HEALTH, V50, P407 XU ZY, 2000, ARCH ENVIRON HEALTH, V55, P115 YANG SC, 1994, ARCH ENVIRON HEALTH, V49, P182 ZHAO YM, 1991, BRIT J IND MED, V48, P179 ZMIROU D, 1998, EPIDEMIOLOGY, V9, P495 NR 147 TC 0 J9 ANNU REV ANTHROPOL BP 111 EP 134 PY 2003 VL 32 GA 746LY UT ISI:000186748900006 ER PT J AU Lorenzoni, I Jordan, A Hulme, M Turner, RK ORiordan, T TI A co-evolutionary approach to climate change impact assessment: Part I. Integrating socio-economic and climate change scenarios SO GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS LA English DT Article C1 Univ E Anglia, Ctr Social & Econ Res Global Environm, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. Univ Coll London, London WC1E 6BT, England. Univ E Anglia, Sch Environm Sci, Climat Res Unit, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. RP Lorenzoni, I, Univ E Anglia, Ctr Social & Econ Res Global Environm, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. AB Climate change policies currently pay disproportionately greater attention to the mitigation of climate change through emission reductions strategies than to adaptation measures. Realising that the world is already committed to some global warming, policy makers are beginning to turn their attention to the challenge of preparing society to adapt to the unfolding impacts at the local level. This two-part article presents an integrated, or 'co-evolutionary', approach to using scenarios in adaptation and vulnerability assessment. Part I explains how climate and social scenarios can be integrated to better understand the inter-relationships between a changing climate and the dynamic evolution of social, economic and political systems. The integrated scenarios are then calibrated so that they can be applied 'bottom up' to local stakeholders in vulnerable sectors of the economy. Part I concludes that a co-evolutionary approach (1) produces a more sophisticated and dynamic account of the potential feedbacks between natural and human systems; (2) suggests that sustainability indicators are both a potentially valuable input to and an output of integrated scenario formulation and application. Part II describes how a broadly representative sample of public, private and voluntary organisations in the East Anglian region of the UK responded to the scenarios, and identifies future research priorities. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *CLIM CHANG IMP RE, 1996, REV POT EFF CLIM CHA *DEP ENV TRAD REG, 1999, BETT QUAL LIF STRAT *INT PAN CLIM CHAN, 1996, CLIM CHANG 1996 *OFF SCI TECHN OST, 1999, DTI PUB *WORLD BUS COUNC S, 1997, GLOB SCEN 2000 2050 ADGER WN, 1999, ECOL ECON, V31, P365 BERKHOUT F, 1999, SOCIOECONOMIC SCENAR ELKINGTON J, 1996, LONG RANGE PLANN, V29, P762 GALLOPIN G, 1998, ENVIRONMENT, V40, P26 HAMMOND A, 1998, WHICH WORLD SCENARIO HULME M, 1998, 1 UKCIP CLIM RES UN KASSLER P, 1995, LONG RANGE PLANN, V28, P38 LORENZONI I, IN PRESS GLOBAL ENV MILES I, 1981, METHODS DEV PLANNING, P31 NIJKAMP P, 1997, INT J ENVIRON POLLUT, V7, P305 NORGAARD RB, 1984, LAND ECON, V60, P160 NORGAARD RB, 1994, DEV BETRAYED END PRO PALUTIKOF JP, 1997, EC IMPACTS HOT SUMME PARRY ML, UNPUB ASSESSMENT POT PARRY ML, 1998, CLIMATE IMPACT ADAPT PARRY ML, 1998, NATURE, V395, P741 PARSON EA, 1995, ENERG POLICY, V23, P463 PATTERSON WC, 1999, TRANSFORMING ELECT C RAYNER S, 1998, HUMAN CHOICE CLIMATE SMITHERS J, 1997, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V7, P129 TURNER RK, 1998, GEOGR J 3, V164, P269 NR 26 TC 9 J9 GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANGE BP 57 EP 68 PY 2000 PD APR VL 10 IS 1 GA 344EB UT ISI:000088743700005 ER PT J AU Pfister, F Bader, HP Scheidegger, R Baccini, P TI Dynamic modelling of resource management for farming systems SO AGRICULTURAL SYSTEMS LA English DT Article C1 EAWAG, Dept Resource & Waste Management, CH-8600 Dubendorf, Switzerland. ETH, Dept Resource & Waste Management, CH-8093 Zurich, Switzerland. RP Bader, HP, EAWAG, Dept Resource & Waste Management, POB 611, CH-8600 Dubendorf, Switzerland. AB With the rapid development of computer technology, numerous simulation models have been developed for agricultural systems and farms. Nevertheless, most of them are rather appropriate for developed countries as they have considerable data requirements and often aim at optimizing farm resources, excluding the farmer's household from the system. Yet, the latter is crucial for the understanding of semi-subsistence systems such as those found in developing countries. We present a dynamic model of an agricultural system in the Central Highlands of Nicaragua. It aims at giving a deeper insight into the functioning of the system and the constraints the latter is subject to. Such an approach helps to explain why farmers make certain choices. Although for the study area few data are available, a robust model with a one-day resolution could be designed. For simulation two groups of scenarios were chosen: (a) Minimum farm sizes for the production of a certain food supply (e.g. basic staples) were assessed and the impact of increased fertilizer use was estimated. (b) Monoculture farms were simulated with the main crops of the region. The production of calories, protein and added value were chosen as indicators. We determined the labour requirements for both groups of scenarios. Simulation results show that the latter is a limiting factor. This is true even for farming systems aiming at covering minimum needs (food, elemental health care and schooling) only. We can show that farmers' strategies (e.g. crop mix, fertilizer application) are crucial for the system. Last but not least, we produce some evidence for the advantage of the current crop mix in the study region. (c) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. CR *FAO, 1995, FRANJ GRAN SAN RAM E, V1 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 *SETEC, 2001, ESTR REF CREC EC RED BACCINI P, 1996, REGIONALER STOFFHAUS BADER HP, 2003, CLEAN TECHNOL E 0529 BINDER C, 2001, ECOL ECON, V38, P191 CAILLAVET F, 1994, DEV AGR EC, V10 CASTELANORTEGA OA, 2003, AGR SYST, V75, P1 CASTELANORTEGA OA, 2003, AGR SYST, V75, P23 FISCHER JC, 1970, TECHNICAL INFORMATIO HUG F, 2003, CLEAN TECHNOL E 0725 JONES CA, 1986, CERES MAIZE SIMULATI JONES JW, 1997, APPL SYSTEMS APPROAC, V1 KEATING BA, 2001, AGR SYST, V70, P555 LEE DJ, 1995, AGR SYST, V49, P101 MAINGI JM, 2001, EUR J AGRON, V14, P1 MATTHEWS RB, 1994, FIELD CROPS RES, V36, P69 MCCOWN RL, 2002, AGR SYSTEM MODELS FI MCKINION JM, 1989, AGR SYST, V31, P55 MULLER D, 2004, IN PRESS J IND ECOL OVERMAN AR, 2002, MATH MODELS CROP GRO PFISTER F, 2003, THESIS SWISS FEDERAL PFISTER F, 2004, P WORKSH SIM UMW GEO, P11 REAL M, 1998, THESIS SWISS FEDERAL RIVAS S, 2000, AGROOKOLOGISCHES REG SHEPHERD KD, 1998, AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON, V71, P131 SINCLAIR TR, 1996, AGRON J, V88, P698 WILLIAMS JR, 1995, COMPUTER MODELS WATE, P909 ZELTNER C, 1999, REG ENV CHANGE, V1, P31 NR 29 TC 0 J9 AGR SYST BP 1 EP 28 PY 2005 PD OCT VL 86 IS 1 GA 974BW UT ISI:000232567300001 ER PT J AU Hannah, L Midgley, GF Millar, D TI Climate change-integrated conservation strategies SO GLOBAL ECOLOGY AND BIOGEOGRAPHY LA English DT Article C1 Conservat Int, Ctr Appl Biodivers Sci, Washington, DC 20036 USA. Natl Bot Inst, Climate Change Res Grp, ZA-7735 Cape Town, South Africa. RP Hannah, L, Conservat Int, Ctr Appl Biodivers Sci, 1919 M St, Washington, DC 20036 USA. AB Aim Conservation strategies currently include little consideration of climate change. Insights about the biotic impacts of climate change from biogeography and palaeoecology, therefore, have the potential to provide significant improvements in the effectiveness of conservation planning. We suggest a collaboration involving biogeography, ecology and applied conservation. The resulting Climate Change-integrated Conservation Strategies (CCS) apply available tools to respond to the conservation challenges posed by climate change. Location The focus of this analysis is global, with special reference to high biodiversity areas vulnerable to climate change, particularly tropical montane settings. Methods Current tools from climatology, biogeography and ecology applicable to conservation planning in response to climate change are reviewed. Conservation challenges posed by climate change are summarized. CCS elements are elaborated that use available tools to respond to these challenges. Results Five elements of CCS are described: regional modelling; expanding protected areas; management of the matrix; regional coordination; and transfer of resources. Regional modelling uses regional climate models, biotic response models and sensitivity analysis to identify climate change impacts on biodiversity at a regional scale appropriate for conservation planning. Expansion of protected areas management and systems within the planning region are based on modelling results. Management of the matrix between protected areas provides continuity for processes and species range shifts outside of parks. Regional coordination of park and off-park efforts allows harmonization of conservation goals across provincial and national boundaries. Finally, implementation of these CCS elements in the most biodiverse regions of the world will require technical and financial transfer of resources on a global scale. Main conclusions Collaboration across disciplines is necessary to plan conservation responses to climate change adequately. Biogeography and ecology provide insights into the effects of climate change on biodiversity that have not yet been fully integrated into conservation biology and applied conservation management. CCS provide a framework in which biogeographers, ecologists and conservation managers can collaborate to address this need. 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Smithsonian Trop Res Inst, Balboa, Panama. Cornell Univ, Ithaca, NY 14853 USA. RP Stothert, KE, Univ Texas, Ctr Archaeol Res, San Antonio, TX 78285 USA. AB Preceramic sites located on the Santa Elena Peninsula in southwestern Ecuador and occupied in the Terminal Pleistocene and during the Early Holocene (10,800-6600 BP) have produced evidence of a durable Las Vegas adaptation focused on marine, estuarine and terrestrial resources. The Las Vegas people were among the earliest cultivators in America who participated in the domestication of useful plant species and progressively intensified their efforts in both fishing and horticulture. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd and INQUA. All rights reserved. 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Surveillance Data Inc, St Louis Pk, MN USA. Bethesda Clin, St Paul, MN USA. Macalester Coll, Dept Biol, St Paul, MN 55105 USA. RP Ziska, LH, USDA ARS, Alternate Crop & Syst Lab, 10300 Baltimore Ave, Beltsville, MD 20705 USA. AB Background: Although controlled laboratory experiments have been conducted to demonstrate the sensitivity of allergenic pollen production to future climatic change tie, increased CO2 and temperature), no in situ data are available. Objective: The purpose of this investigation was to assess, under realistic conditions, the impact of climatic change on pollen production of common ragweed, a ubiquitous weed occurring in disturbed sites and the principal source of pollen associated with seasonal allergenic rhinitis. Methods: We used an existing temperature/CO2 gradient between urban and rural areas to examine the quantitative and qualitative aspects of ragweed growth and pollen production. Results: For 2000 and 200 1, average daily (24-hour) values of CO2 concentration and air temperature within an urban environment were 30% to 31% and 1.8degrees to 2.0degreesC (3.4degrees to 3.6degreesF) higher than those at a rural site. This result is consistent with most global change scenarios. Ragweed grew faster, flowered earlier, and produced significantly greater above-ground biomass and ragweed pollen at urban locations than at rural locations. Conclusions: Here we show that 2 aspects of future global environmental change, air temperature and atmospheric CO2, are already significantly higher in urban relative to rural areas. In general, we show that regional urbanization-induced temperature/CO2 increases similar to those associated with projected global climatic change might already have public health consequences; we suggest that urbanization, per se, might provide a low-cost alternative to current experimental methods evaluating plant responses to climate change. (J Allergy Clin Immunol 2003;111:290-5.). 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AB This paper probes into the "ecological reasoning" in cultural Anthropology. It points out that although many studies have implicitly recognized the notions of ecosystems but very few of them have explained cultural behaviour in explicit ecological terms. The challenging task ahead is how to incorporate the theoretical notions of ecology into cultural anthropological corpus; what should be its methodology; what are the serious limitations to ecological perspectives and how to overcome those limitations. 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Univ Fribourg, Dept Geosci, CH-1700 Fribourg, Switzerland. ETHZ, Swiss Fed Inst Technol, Inst Terr Ecol, Dept Environm Sci, Zurich, Switzerland. ETHZ, Swiss Fed Inst Technol, Inst Atmospher & Climate Sci, Dept Environm Sci, Zurich, Switzerland. Univ Bern, Hist Inst, Bern, Switzerland. RP Fuhrer, J, Agroscope FAL Reckenholz, Swiss Fed Res Stn Agroecol & Agr, Air Pollut Climate Grp, Reckenholzstr 191, CH-8046 Zurich, Switzerland. AB There is growing evidence that, as a result of global climate change, some of the most severe weather events could become more frequent in Europe over the next 50 to 100 years. The paper aims to (i) describe observed trends and scenarios for summer heat waves, windstorms and heavy precipitation, based on results from simulations with global circulation models, regional climate models, and other downscaling procedures, and (ii) discuss potential impacts on agricultural systems and forests in Switzerland. Trends and scenarios project more frequent heavy precipitation during winter corresponding, for example, to a three-fold increase in the exceedance of today's 15-year extreme values by the end of the 21st century. This increases the risk of large-scale flooding and loss of topsoil due to erosion. In contrast, constraints in agricultural practice due to waterlogged soils may become less in a warmer climate. In summer, the most remarkable trend is a decrease in the frequency of wet days, and shorter return times of heat waves and droughts. This increases the risk of losses of crop yield and forage quality. In forests, the more frequent occurrence of dry years may accelerate the replacement of sensitive tree species and reduce carbon stocks, and the projected slight increase in the frequency of extreme storms by the end of the century could increase the risk of windthrow. 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VALLERON AJ, 2004, CR BIOL, V327, P1125 VIDALE PL, 2003, J GEOPHYS RES-ATMOS, V108 WERMELINGER B, 1999, ECOL ENTOMOL, V24, P103 WERNLI H, 2002, Q J ROY METEOR SOC B, V128, P405 WIDMANN M, 1997, INT J CLIMATOL, V17, P1333 WIDMER O, 2004, FOREST ECOL MANAG, V195, P237 WILBY RL, 1998, WATER RESOUR RES, V34, P2995 WILBY RL, 2004, GUIDELINES USE CLIMA, P27 WILLIAMS AN, 2001, SUSTAINING GLOBAL FA, P509 XOPLAKI E, 2000, CLIMATE RES, V14, P129 XOPLAKI E, 2004, CLIM DYNAM, V23, P63 ZHANG XC, 2004, SOIL SCI SOC AM J, V68, P1376 ZIERL B, 2004, FOREST ECOL MANAG, V188, P25 ZWIERS FW, 1998, J CLIMATE, V11, P2200 NR 131 TC 0 J9 CLIMATIC CHANGE BP 79 EP 102 PY 2006 PD NOV VL 79 IS 1-2 GA 110DV UT ISI:000242359400005 ER PT J AU VANGINKEL, R TI FISHY RESOURCES AND RESOURCEFUL FISHERS - THE MARINE COMMONS AND THE ADAPTIVE STRATEGIES OF TEXEL FISHERMEN SO NETHERLANDS JOURNAL OF SOCIAL SCIENCES LA English DT Article RP VANGINKEL, R, AMSTERDAM SCH SOCIAL SCI RES,OUDE HOOGST 24,1012 CE AMSTERDAM,NETHERLANDS. AB There are numerous instances of the abuse and overexploitation of natural resources held in common. This is especially true in marine environments. In a well-known article, Garrett Hardin states that the exploitation of common property resources will inevitably lead to ecological deterioration. Critics maintain that his proposition is based on false assumptions and is empirically untenable. They present examples of sustainable use and successful communal resource management. In my opinion, the pessimistic and the optimistic views are both flawed. Understanding the motives and behaviour of commoners requires a close examination of their adaptive strategies, socially and culturally contextualized in a long-term perspective. From this angle, this article focuses on Texel fishermen's adaptations in the nineteenth and early twentieth centuries. 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SO HYDROGEOLOGY JOURNAL LA English DT Article C1 Cranfield Univ, Inst Water & Environm, Bedford MK45 4DT, England. RP Holman, IP, Cranfield Univ, Inst Water & Environm, Bedford MK45 4DT, England. AB An integrated approach to assessing the regional impacts of climate and socio-economic change on groundwater recharge is described from East Anglia, UK. Many factors affect future groundwater recharge including changed precipitation and temperature regimes, coastal flooding, urbanization, woodland establishment, and changes in cropping and rotations. Important sources of uncertainty and shortcomings in recharge estimation are discussed in the light of the results. The uncertainty in, and importance of, socio-economic scenarios in exploring the consequences of unknown future changes are highlighted. Changes to soil properties are occurring over a range of time scales, such that the soils of the future may not have the same infiltration properties as existing soils. The potential implications involved in assuming unchanging soil properties are described. To focus on the direct impacts of climate change is to neglect the potentially important role of policy, societal values and economic processes in shaping the landscape above aquifers. If the likely consequences of future changes of groundwater recharge, resulting from both climate and socio-economic change, are to be assessed, hydrogeologists must increasingly work with researchers from other disciplines, such as socio-economists, agricultural modellers and soil scientists. CR *EUR ENV AG, 1998, EUR ENV 2 ASS MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 ALDERWISH A, 1999, CLIMATE RES, V12, P85 ANKENY MD, 1995, SOIL SCI SOC AM J, V59, P200 ARGENT RM, 2004, ENVIRON MODELL SOFTW, V19, P219 ARNELL A, 1994, 12 RD NAT RIV AUTH ARNELL NW, 1998, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V39, P83 BARON JS, 2002, ECOL APPL, V12, P1247 BOBBA AG, 2002, HYDROLOG SCI J, V47, S67 BOORMAN DB, 1995, 126 I HYDR BOWMAN RA, 2000, SOIL SCI, V165, P516 BRAGG OM, 2002, SCI TOTAL ENVIRON, V294, P111 CANNELL MGR, 1999, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V42, P505 CANNELL RQ, 1994, SOIL TILL RES, V30, P245 CARTER TR, 1992, J EXP BOT, V43, P1159 CASH DW, 2000, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V10, P109 CHAMBERS BJ, 2000, SOIL USE MANAGE, V16, P93 CHEN CC, 2001, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V49, P397 CHEN ZH, 2002, J HYDROL, V260, P102 CONWAY D, 1996, AMBIO, V25, P336 COOPER DM, 1995, HYDROLOG SCI J, V40, P615 CROLEY TE, 2003, J AM WATER RESOUR AS, V39, P149 DANIELOPOL DL, 2003, ENVIRON CONSERV, V30, P104 DAVIES A, 1996, GRASS FORAGE SCI, V51, P306 EASTERLING WE, 1997, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V7, P337 FEDDEMA JJ, 2001, CLIMATE RES, V17, P209 GOMEZ E, 2003, HOUILLE BLANCEH, V3, P38 HARRISON PA, 1996, CLIMATE RES, V7, P225 HERNANZ JL, 2002, SOIL TILL RES, V66, P129 HOLMAN IP, 1998, Q J ENG GEOL 1, V31, P47 HOLMAN IP, 1999, Q J ENG GEOL 4, V32, P365 HOLMAN IP, 2001, REGIONAL CLIMATE CHA HOLMAN IP, 2003, HYDROL EARTH SYST SC, V7, P754 HOLMAN IP, 2005, IN PRESS CLIMATIC 1 HOLMAN IP, 2005, IN PRESS CLIMATIC 2 HULME M, 1998, 1 CLIM RES UN JONES PD, 2001, INT J CLIMATOL, V21, P1337 KEATING EH, 2003, GROUND WATER, V41, P200 KIRSHEN PH, 2002, J WATER RES PL-ASCE, V128, P216 KORT J, 1998, BIOMASS BIOENERG, V14, P351 KRUGER A, 2001, PHYS CHEM EARTH PT B, V26, P853 LEEMANS R, 1999, SCI TOTAL ENVIRON, V240, P51 LOAICIGA HA, 2000, J HYDROL, V227, P173 LOUKAS A, 2002, HYDROL EARTH SYST SC, V6, P211 LOVELAND P, 2003, SOIL TILL RES, V70, P1 MEIGH JR, 1999, WATER RESOUR MANAG, V13, P85 NICHOLLS RJ, 2001, REGIONAL CLIMATE CHA OLEARY GJ, 1996, AGR WATER MANAGE, V31, P65 PARRY ML, 1996, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V32, P185 PARSON EA, 2000, SOCIOECONOMIC CONTEX, CH3 PRUDHOMME C, 2002, HYDROL PROCESS, V16, P1137 PRUSKI FF, 2002, J SOIL WATER CONSERV, V57, P7 QUINN NWT, 2004, ENVIRON MODELL SOFTW, V19, P305 REEVES DW, 1997, SOIL TILL RES, V43, P131 ROUNSEVELL MDA, 1999, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V43, P683 ROUNSEVELL MDA, 2003, AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON, V95, P465 SHACKLEY S, 2003, CLIMATE RES, V24, P71 SHERIF MM, 1999, HYDROL PROCESS, V13, P1277 SOPHOCLEOUS M, 2002, HYDROGEOL J, V10, P52 TEBRUGGE F, 1999, SOIL TILL RES, V53, P15 TISDALE JM, 1982, J SOIL SCI, V33, P141 VOSS R, 2002, INT J CLIMATOL, V22, P755 WEATHERHEAD EK, 1999, AGR WATER MANAGE, V43, P203 WEBB J, 2001, J AGR SCI 2, V137, P127 YUSOFF I, 2002, GEOLOGICAL SOC LONDO, V193, P325 NR 65 TC 0 J9 HYDROGEOL J BP 637 EP 647 PY 2006 PD JUN VL 14 IS 5 GA 069OY UT ISI:000239459300001 ER PT J AU Tanaka, SK Zhu, TJ Lund, JR Howitt, RE Jenkins, MW Pulido, MA Tauber, M Ritzema, RS Ferreira, IC TI Climate warming and water management adaptation for California SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 Univ Calif Davis, Dept Agr & Resource Econ, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Davis, CA 95616 USA. RP Tanaka, SK, Univ Calif Davis, Dept Agr & Resource Econ, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Davis, CA 95616 USA. AB The ability of California's water supply system to adapt to long-term climatic and demographic changes is examined. Two climate warming and a historical climate scenario are examined with population and land use estimates for the year 2100 using a statewide economic-engineering optimization model of water supply management. Methodologically, the results of this analysis indicate that for long-term climate change studies of complex systems, there is considerable value in including other major changes expected during a long-term time-frame (such as population changes), allowing the system to adapt to changes in conditions (a common feature of human societies), and representing the system in sufficient hydrologic and operational detail and breadth to allow significant adaptation. While the policy results of this study are preliminary, they point to a considerable engineering and economic ability of complex, diverse, and inter-tied systems to adapt to significant changes in climate and population. More specifically, California's water supply system appears physically capable of adapting to significant changes in climate and population, albeit at a significant cost. Such adaptation would entail large changes in the operation of California's large groundwater storage capacity, significant transfers of water among water users, and some adoption of new technologies. 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AB Global sea levels have slowly risen during this century, and that rise is expected to accelerate in the coming century due to anthropogenic global warming. A total rise of up to 1 m is possible by the year 2100 (relative to 1990). To deal with this change, coastal managers require site-specific information on relative (i.e., local) changes in sea level to determine what might be threatened. Therefore as a first step, global sea-level rise scenarios need to be transformed into relative sea-level change scenarios which take account of local and regional factors, such as vertical land movements, in addition to global changes. Even present rates of relative sealevel rise have important long-term implications for coastal management-projecting existing trends predicts a relative sea-level rise from 1990 to 2100 of up to 0.4 m and 1.15 m for the Mid-Atlantic Region and Louisiana, respectively. Ignoring sea-level rise will lead to unwise decisions and increasing hazard with time. This article adapts the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) global scenarios for sea-level rise (Warrick et at, 1996) to three relative sea-level rise scenarios for the contiguous United States. These scenarios cover the period 1990 to 2100 and provide a basis to assess possible proactive measures for sea-level rise. However, they are subject to the same uncertainties as the global scenarios as most of the sea-level rise will occur decades into the future. When considering what should be done now in response to future sea-level rise, given these large uncertainties, if is best to identify (I) low-cost, no regret responses which would maintain or enhance the choices available to tomorrow's coastal managers; and (2) sectors where reactive adaptation would have particularly high costs and where allowance for future sealevel rise can be considered a worthwhile ''insurance policy. '' Sea-level rise will impact an evolving coastal landscape which already is experiencing a range of other pressures. Therefore, to be most effective, responses to sea-level rise need to be integrated with all other planning occurring in the coastal zone. 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RP Peterson, S, Kiel Inst World Econ, D-24100 Kiel, Germany. AB The analysis of climate change is confronted with large uncertainties that need to be taken into account to arrive at meaningful policy recommendations. The main contribution of economics to this interdisciplinary task is to provide formal frameworks and techniques for analyzing climate policy in the context of uncertainty. This paper will give an overview of existing approaches and findings to provide a broad picture of what economics can contribute to the debate. 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RP Barker, T, Univ Cambridge, Dept Appl Econ, Sidgwick Ave, Cambridge CB3 9DE, England. AB The diagrammatic representation of climate change, adaptation and mitigation is important in conceptualizing the problem, identifying important feedbacks, and communicating between disciplines. The Synthesis Report of the IPCC's Third Assessment Report, 2001, uses a "cause and effect" approach developed in the integrated assessment literature. This viewpoint reviews this approach and suggests an alternative, based on stocks and flows. The alternative gives a much richer representation of the problem so that it includes the enhanced greenhouse effect, ancillary benefits of mitigation, the distinction between climate-change and other stresses on natural systems, and a more refined distinction between adaptation and mitigation. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *EEA EUR ENV AG, 1998, ENV ENV PRESS IND EU *EEA EUR ENV AG, 2000, ENV ISS SER EEA EUR, V17 *IPCC, 2001, CLIM CHANG 2001 *OECD, 1993, OECD ENV MON, V83 NAKICENOVIC N, 2000, IPCC INT PAN CLIM CH RAPPORT DJ, 1979, COMPREHENSIVE FRAMEW, P11 WATSON R, 2001, SYNTHESIS REPORT CLI NR 7 TC 0 J9 GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANGE BP 1 EP 6 PY 2003 PD APR VL 13 IS 1 GA 679ZD UT ISI:000182951100001 ER PT J AU Isik, M Devadoss, S TI An analysis of the impact of climate change on crop yields and yield variability SO APPLIED ECONOMICS LA English DT Article C1 Univ Idaho, Dept Agr Econ & Rural Sociol, Moscow, ID 83844 USA. RP Isik, M, Univ Idaho, Dept Agr Econ & Rural Sociol, 28B Ag Sci Bldg, Moscow, ID 83844 USA. AB This paper develops an econometric model of stochastic production functions to quantify the impacts of climatic variables on the mean, variance, and covariance of crop yields. The estimates of the production function parameters and their elasticities are utilized to analyse the impacts of the projected climate change on agriculture. The results show that the climate change will have modest effects on the mean crop yields, but will significantly reduce the variance and covariance for most of the crops considered. The results have implications for allocations of agricultural land among crops and for crop production mix. CR *NCDC, NCDC WEBP ADAMS RM, 1998, CLIMATE RES, V11, P19 ADAMS RM, 1999, AGR GLOBAL CLIMATE C ANDERSON JR, 1987, VARIABILITY GRAINS Y ASCHE F, 1999, J AGR RESOUR ECON, V24, P429 BALTAGI BH, 1995, ECONOMETRIC ANAL PAN BRYANT CR, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P181 EITZINGER J, 2001, ECOLOGY EC, V52, P199 HARVEY AC, 1976, ECONOMETRICA, V44, P461 HAZELL PBR, 1984, AM J AGR ECON, V66, P302 HOUGHTON JT, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995 HUANG TH, 2004, APPL ECON LETT, V11, P297 IM KS, 1997, UNPUB TESTING UNIT R ISIK M, 2003, AM J AGR ECON, V85, P305 JOHNSTON J, 1997, ECONOMETRIC METHODS JUST RE, 1978, J ECONOMETRICS, V7, P67 KANWAR S, 1999, APPL ECON, V31, P307 KUMBHAKAR SC, 1997, APPL ECON, V29, P379 LEWANDROWSKI JK, 1999, LAND ECON, V75, P39 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 MEARNS LO, 1997, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V35, P367 MENDELSOHN R, 1994, AM ECON REV, V84, P753 MENDELSOHN R, 1996, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V80, P55 POLSKY C, 2001, AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON, V85, P133 SAHA A, 1997, APPL ECON, V29, P459 SANTER B, 1984, SOCIOECONOMIC IMPACT SCHIMMELPFENNIG D, 1999, GLOBAL ENV CHANGE AG, P193 SMITH JB, 2004, SYNTHESIS POTENTIAL TERJUNG WH, 1984, INT J BIOMETEOROL, V28, P279 NR 29 TC 0 J9 APPL ECON BP 835 EP 844 PY 2006 PD APR 20 VL 38 IS 7 GA 044AY UT ISI:000237645600008 ER PT J AU Sanchez, PA TI Linking climate change research with food security and poverty reduction in the tropics SO AGRICULTURE ECOSYSTEMS & ENVIRONMENT LA English DT Article C1 Int Ctr Res Agroforestry, Nairobi, Kenya. RP Sanchez, PA, Int Ctr Res Agroforestry, Nairobi, Kenya. AB Climate change is a reality and will affect the poor in developing countries in many ways. The effectiveness of global change research could be substantially improved by linking International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP) study with Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR) centres based in the tropics. These centres are carrying interdisciplinary research and development on how to achieve food security and reduce rural poverty through the innovative management of natural resources. A CGIAR intercentre working group on climate change (ICWG-CC) identified joint opportunities that take advantage of the comparative advantages of both institutions. CGIAR centres will focus on adaptation and mitigation research in developing countries. A natural resource management research approach is suggested, which consists of six steps: (1) identifying and quantifying the extent of food insecurity, rural poverty and resource degradation; (2) conducting technological and policy research on economic and environmental functions; (3) optimising the trade-offs between global environmental benefits and private farmer benefits; (4) extrapolating and disseminating results, including research on policy implementation; (5) assessing impact and (6) providing feedback. Two examples of current CGIAR research illustrate this approach. Agroforestry alternatives to slash and burn (ASB) agriculture at tropical forest margins were identified and the trade-offs between carbon sequestration and farmer profitability provided options to policy makers. Land tenure problems were resolved with participatory policy research. Agroforestry practices sequester an additional 57 Mg C per ha, three times that of croplands or grasslands are able to do. Soil nutrient capital is being replenished in subhumid tropical Africa through improved leguminous tree fallows, rock phosphate and biomass transfers of Tithonia diversifolia, helping farmers to attain food security. Afterwards, when farmers shift to high-value tree or vegetable crop production, poverty is reduced. The transformation of low productivity croplands to sequential agroforestry is estimated to triple system carbon stocks in 20 years. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. CR *ASB, 1998, ALT SLASH BURN IND, P139 *CGIAR, 1998, CGIAR SYST REV REP, P108 *ICWG CC, 1999, CGIAR CLIM CHANG PRO, P14 *MIN FOR IND, 1998, KAW DENG TUJ IST KDT, P16 BURESH RJ, 1997, SSSA SPECIAL PUBLICA, V51, P251 DAWSON IK, 1999, MOL ECOL, V8, P151 FAY C, 1998, AGROFORESTRY TODAY, V10, P25 GACHENGO CN, 1999, AGROFOREST SYST, V44, P21 GARRITY DP, 1994, INT CTR RES AGROFORE, P73 GOKOWSKI J, 2000, UNPUB AGR INTENSIFIC GREGORY PJ, 2000, AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON, V82, P3 HOUGHTON JT, 1997, 3 IPCC, V3, P48 IZAC AMN, 2000, IN PRESS AGR SYST JAMA B, 2000, IN PRESS AGROFORESTR JAMIESON PD, 2000, AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON, V82, P23 KAPKIYAI JJ, 1998, AFRICAN CROP SCI J, V6, P19 KWESIGA F, 1994, FOREST ECOL MANAG, V64, P199 KWESIGA FR, 1999, AGROFOREST SYST, V47, P49 LEAKEY RRB, 1996, DOMESTICATION COMMER, V9 MICHON G, 1996, NONWOOD FOREST PRODU, V9, P160 NIANG A, 1998, 9 KARIKEFRIICRAF REG, P42 OLDEMAN LR, 1998, 9801 INT SOIL REF IN PALM CA, 1995, PROCEDURAL GUIDELINE, P33 PALM CA, 2000, ALTERNATIVES SLASH B PINSTRUPANDERSE.P, 1999, 2020 INT POL RES I, P32 RAO MR, 1998, AGROFORESTRY TODAY, V10, P3 SANCHEZ PA, 1994, JIRCAS INT S SERIES, V1, P108 SANCHEZ PA, 1996, AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON, V58, P1 SANCHEZ PA, 1997, EUR J AGRON, V7, P15 SANCHEZ PA, 1997, PHILOS T ROY SOC B, V352, P949 SANCHEZ PA, 1997, SSSA SPECIAL PUBLICA, V51, P1 SANCHEZ PA, 2000, IN PRESS ENV DEV SUS SANCHEZ PA, 2000, UNPUB AM SOCIETY AGR SCHLESINGER WH, 1999, SCIENCE, V284, P2095 SIMONS AJ, 1998, HERBALGRAM, V43, P49 SMALING EMA, 1993, THESIS AGR U WAGENIN, P250 TOMICH TP, 1998, AGR ECON, V19, P159 TOMICH TP, 1999, POLICY RES SUSTAINAB, P14 TOMICH TP, 2000, IN PRESS AGR INTENSI WALKER BH, 1999, TERRESTRIAL BIOSPHER, P439 WALLACE JS, 2000, AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON, V82, P105 WELCH RM, 1997, ISSUES SCI TECHNOL, V14, P50 WOOMER PL, 1997, MANAGEMENT CARBON SE, P153 WOOMER PL, 2000, GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANG, P99 NR 44 TC 6 J9 AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON BP 371 EP 383 PY 2000 PD DEC VL 82 IS 1-3 GA 380ZW UT ISI:000165738700028 ER PT J AU Whitehead, PG Wilby, RL Butterfield, D Wade, AJ TI Impacts of climate change on in-stream nitrogen in a lowland chalk stream: An appraisal of adaptation strategies SO SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT LA English DT Article C1 Univ Reading, Dept Geog, Aquat Environm Res Ctr, Reading RG6 6AB, Berks, England. Environm Agcy, Trentside Off, Nottingham NG2 5FA, England. RP Whitehead, PG, Univ Reading, Dept Geog, Aquat Environm Res Ctr, Reading RG6 6AB, Berks, England. AB The impacts of climate change on nitrogen (N) in a lowland chalk stream are investigated using a dynamic modelling approach. The INCA-N model is used to simulate transient daily hydrology and water quality in the River Kennet using temperature and precipitation scenarios downscaled from the General Circulation Model (GCM) output for the period 1961-2100. The three GCMs (CGCM2, CSIRO and HadCM3) yield very different river flow regimes with the latter projecting significant periods of drought in the second half of the 21st century. Stream-water N concentrations increase over time as higher temperatures enhance N release from the soil, and lower river flows reduce the dilution capacity of the river. Particular problems are shown to occur following severe droughts when N mineralization is high and the subsequent breaking of the drought releases high nitrate loads into the river system. Possible strategies for reducing climate-driven N loads are explored using INCA-N. The measures include land use change or fertiliser reduction, reduction in atmospheric nitrate and ammonium deposition, and the introduction of water meadows or connected wetlands adjacent to the river. The most effective strategy is to change land use or reduce fertiliser use, followed by water meadow creation, and atmospheric pollution controls. Finally, a combined approach involving all three strategies is investigated and shown to reduce in-stream nitrate concentrations to those pre-1950s even under climate change. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. CR *I HYDR, 1998, HYDR DAT UK HYDR REG *WHO, 1971, INT STAND DRINK WAT ARNELL NW, 2003, J HYDROL, V270, P195 ARNELL NW, 2004, WATER ENVIRON J, V18, P112 CHAPRA SC, 1997, SURFACE WATER QUALIT DAVIDSON MB, 1997, DIS MANAG HEALTH OUT, V2, P189 HOWARTH RW, 2002, ESTUARIES, V25, P656 JAKEMAN AJ, 1993, MACROSCALE MODELLING, V214, P37 JOHNES PJ, 1993, NITRATE PROCESSES PA, P269 LIMBRICK KJ, 2000, SCI TOTAL ENVIRON, V251, P539 MACHEFERT SE, 2002, HYDROL EARTH SYST SC, V6, P325 MCINTYRE N, 2005, J HYDROL, V315, P71 NEAL C, 2002, HYDROL EARTH SYST SC, V6, P297 SKEFFINGTON R, 2002, HYDROL EARTH SYST SC, V6, P315 WADE AJ, 2002, HYDROL EARTH SYST SC, V6, P559 WADE AJ, 2002, SCI TOTAL ENVIRON, V282, P375 WADE AJ, 2004, HYDROL EARTH SYST SC, V8, P846 WADE AJ, 2004, HYDROL EARTH SYST SC, V9, P597 WADE AJ, 2006, SCI TOTAL ENVIRON, V365, P3 WHITEHEAD PG, 1990, PHILOS T ROY SOC B, V329, P403 WHITEHEAD PG, 1993, WATER RES, V27, P1377 WHITEHEAD PG, 1998, SCI TOTAL ENVIRON, V210, P547 WHITEHEAD PG, 1998, SCI TOTAL ENVIRON, V210, P559 WHITEHEAD PG, 2002, HYDROL EARTH SYST SC, V6, P455 WHITEHEAD PG, 2002, SCI TOTAL ENVIRON, V282, P417 WHITEHEAD PG, 2004, HYDROL EARTH SYST SC, V8, P533 WILBY R, 1994, J HYDROL, V153, P265 WILBY RL, IN PRESS J HYDROL WILBY RL, 2002, ENVIRON MODELL SOFTW, V17, P145 WILBY RL, 2005, HYDROL PROCESS, V19, P3201 WORRALL F, 2003, WATER RESOUR RES, V39 WRIGHT RF, 1998, HYDROL EARTH SYST SC, V2, P385 WRIGHT RF, 1998, HYDROL EARTH SYST SC, V2, P399 NR 33 TC 1 J9 SCI TOTAL ENVIR BP 260 EP 273 PY 2006 PD JUL 15 VL 365 IS 1-3 GA 065AL UT ISI:000239131700017 ER PT J AU Schneider, SH Root, TL TI Ecological implications of climate change will include surprises SO BIODIVERSITY AND CONSERVATION LA English DT Article RP Schneider, SH, STANFORD UNIV,DEPT BIOL SCI,STANFORD,CA 94305. AB In addition to assessing the impacts of CO2 doubling on environment and society, more consideration is needed to estimate extreme events or 'surprises'. This is particularly important at the intersection of disciplines like climate and ecology because the potential for large discontinuities is high given all the possible climate/biota interactions. The vast disparities in scales encountered by those working in traditional ecology (typically 20 m) and climatology (typically 200 km) make diagnoses of such interactions difficult, but these can be addressed by an emerging research paradigm we call strategic cyclical scaling (SCS). The need to anticipate outlier events and assign them subjective probabilities suggests emphasis on interdisciplinary research associations. The desire to reduce societal vulnerability to such events suggests the need to build adaptive management and diverse economic activities into social organizations. The effectiveness of adaptation responses to anticipated climatic changes is complicated when consideration of transient changes, regional disturbances, large unforseeable natural fluctuations and surprises are considered. Slowing down the rate of disturbances and decreasing vulnerability are advocated as the most prudent responses to the prospect of human-induced climatic changes. CR *IPCC, 1996, CLIM CHANGE 195 SCI BROECKER WS, 1989, GEOCHIM COSMOCHIM AC, V53, P2465 CARPENTER SR, 1995, SCIENCE, V269, P324 EHLERINGER JR, 1993, SCALING PHYSL PROCES EPSTEIN PR, 1994, ANN NY ACAD SCI, V740, P423 HOLLING CS, 1986, SUSTAINABLE DEV BIOS, V1, P1 HOUGHTON JT, 1990, CLIMATE CHANGE IPCC IDSO SB, 1993, GLOBAL BIOGEOCHEM CY, V7, P537 KAREIVA P, 1988, COMMUNITY ECOLOGY, P35 LEVIN SA, 1992, ECOLOGY, V73, P1943 MEANS IO, 1984, J CLIMATE APPL METER, V23, P1601 MORGAN MG, 1995, ENVIRON SCI TECHNOL, V29, A468 MYERS N, 1995, SCIENCE, V269, P358 NORDHAUS WD, 1994, AM SCI, V82, P45 OECHEL WC, 1994, NATURE, V371, P500 PACALA SW, 1993, BIOTIC INTERACTIONS, P57 ROOT TL, 1993, CONSERV BIOL, V7, P256 ROOT TL, 1995, SCIENCE, V269, P334 ROSENBERG NJ, 1994, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V4, P49 ROSENZWEIG C, 1993, GLOBAL EN CHANGE, V4, P7 SCHNEIDER SH, 1985, GLOBAL POSSIBLE RESO, P397 SCHNEIDER SH, 1994, SCIENCE, V263, P341 SCHNEIDER SH, 1995, ELEMENTS CHANGE 1994, P130 SMITH JB, 1988, POTENTIAL EFFECTS GL, V1 SMITH JB, 1988, POTENTIAL EFFECTS GL, V2 TITUS JG, 1996, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V33, P151 NR 26 TC 14 J9 BIODIVERS CONSERV BP 1109 EP 1119 PY 1996 PD SEP VL 5 IS 9 GA VH808 UT ISI:A1996VH80800008 ER PT J AU Seguin, B TI Adaptation of agricultural production systems to climatic change. SO COMPTES RENDUS GEOSCIENCE LA French DT Article C1 INRA, Unite Agroclim, F-84914 Avignon 9, France. RP Seguin, B, INRA, Unite Agroclim, Site Agroparc,Domaine St Paul, F-84914 Avignon 9, France. AB Adaptation of agricultural production systems to climatic change. The adaptation of agricultural production systems to climatic change needs to firstly consider the predictable impact upon vegetal production, using the available knowledge on crop ecophysiology applied for simulating the effects of climate scenarios, including the increase of atmospheric CO2. The predicted consequences are firstly presented in general terms. They are thereafter detailed for each main type of production in France (annual crops, pastures and perennial crops), taking into account recent observations about the evolution of climate and related consequences on crop phenology (especially fruit trees and vine). They lead to identify the main lines for the adaptation at the level of present cropping systems, considered as geographically stable. However, this level needs to be completed by a second one, corresponding to a possible shift in latitude or altitude, as well as the introduction of new crops. Ultimately, a third level of adaptation will correspond to the evolution of territories and land use, whose determinants will be discussed in the conclusion. (C) 2003 Academie des sciences. Publie par Editions scientifiques et medicales Elsevier SAS. CR MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 DELECOLLE R, 1999, C R ACAD AGR FRANCE, V85, P45 LADURIES EL, 1983, HIST CLIMAT DEPUIS M MOISSELIN JM, 2002, METEOROLOGIE, V38, P45 PERARNAUD V, 2002, IN PRESS WMO INT WOR REDDY KR, 2000, CLIMATE CHANGE GLOBA ROSENSWEIG C, 1998, CLIMATE CHANGE GLOBA RUGET F, 1996, MAYDICA, V41, P181 SEGUIN B, 2002, CHANGEMENT CLIMATIQU SEGUIN B, 2002, COURRIER ENV, V46, P5 SOUSSANA JF, 2001, DEMETER ARMAND COLIN, P195 NR 11 TC 1 J9 C R GEOSCI BP 569 EP 575 PY 2003 PD JUN-JUL VL 335 IS 6-7 GA 730EY UT ISI:000185817300009 ER PT J AU Dixon, AB TI Wetland sustainability and the evolution of indigenous knowledge in Ethiopia SO GEOGRAPHICAL JOURNAL LA English DT Article C1 Univ Otago, Dept Geog, Dunedin, New Zealand. RP Dixon, AB, Univ Otago, Dept Geog, Dunedin, New Zealand. AB Much research in recent years has addressed the contribution of indigenous knowledge (IK) to development initiatives in developing countries. An IK system that continuously evolves and adapts in response to environmental and socio-economic change is often considered to be at the core of sustainable natural resource management practices and rural livelihoods. In the context of indigenous wetland management in western Ethiopia, this paper examines the relationship between IK and wetland sustainability, focusing oil the mechanisms through which IK evolves and how local adaptive capacity is built up. A series of participatory research activities undertaken in four wetland communities revealed spatial variations in the degree of innovation and communication taking place. The paper argues that these mechanisms are key factors influencing adaptive capacity, suggesting a key link between wetland sustainability and the occurrence of innovation and communication among communities. CR *DPPC, 2004, RES 2004 OR *IIRR, 1996, REC US IND KNOWL MAN *WORLD BANK, 1998, IND KNOWL DEV FRAM A ABBOT PG, 2000, COMMUNITY ORG NATURA ADAMS WM, 1993, GEOGR J, V159, P209 ADAMS WM, 2001, GREEN DEV ENV SUSTAI ADGER WN, 2000, PROG HUM GEOG, V24, P347 AFEWORK H, 1998, UNPUB OVERVIEW WETLA AFEWORK H, 2000, UNPUB APPROPRIATE TE AGRAWAL A, 1995, DEV CHANGE, V26, P413 BERKES F, 1999, SACRED ECOLOGY TRADI BERKES F, 2000, ECOL APPL, V10, P1251 BINNS T, 1995, PEOPLE ENV AFRICA BOSERUP E, 1965, CONDITIONS AGR GROWT BRACE S, 1995, PEOPLE ENV AFRICA, P39 BRIGGS J, 2004, THIRD WORLD Q, V25, P661 BROKENSHA D, 1980, INDIGENOUS KNOWLEDGE BROWN D, 2002, PARTICIPATION PRACTI CHAMBERS R, 1983, RURAL DEV PUTTING LA CHAMBERS R, 1989, FARMERS 1 FARMER INN CHAMBERS R, 1994, WORLD DEV, V22, P1253 CONWAY D, 2000, HYDROLOGY WETLANDS I DENNY P, 1993, WETLANDS WORLD INVEN, V1, P32 DENNY P, 1994, WETLANDS ECOLOGY MAN, V3, P55 DEWALT BR, 1994, HUM ORGAN, V53, P123 DIXON AB, 2002, LAND DEGRAD DEV, V13, P17 DIXON AB, 2003, DEV PRACTICE, V13, P394 DIXON AB, 2003, INDIGENOUS MANAGEMEN DUGAN PJ, 1990, WETLAND CONSERVATION FARRINGTON J, 1988, 9 ODI AGR ADM UN OCC FOLKE C, 2002, AMBIO, V31, P437 GRENIER L, 1998, WORKING INDIGENOUS K HARDIN G, 1968, SCIENCE, V162, P1243 HAVERKORT B, 1999, FOOD ANCIENT VISIONS HOLLIS GE, 1990, HYDROLOG SCI J, V35, P411 JOHNSON AW, 1972, HUM ECOL, V1, P149 KEBEDE T, 1993, UNPUB EVALUATION ENV LADO C, 1998, GEOJOURNAL, V45, P165 LALONDE A, 1995, SCANDINAVIAN J DEV A, V14, P206 LEMA AJ, 1996, SUSTAINING SOIL INDI, P139 LEMILY AD, 2000, ENVIRON MANAGE, V25, P485 MALTBY E, WETLANDS HDB MALTBY E, 1986, WATERLOGGED WEALTH W MCCORKLE CM, 1995, CULTURAL DIMENSION D, P323 MUNDY PA, 1995, CULTURAL DIMENSION D, P112 NICHOLAS GP, 1998, CURR ANTHROPOL, V39, P720 PRETTY J, 2001, WORLD DEV, V29, P209 PURCELL TW, 1998, HUM ORGAN, V57, P258 RAMIREZ R, 1997, 66 IIED REIJ C, 1996, SUSTAINING SOIL INDI REIJ C, 2001, FARMER INNOVATION AF REIJNTJES C, 1992, FARMING FUTURE INTRO RHOADES RE, 1995, 1995 CULTURAL DIMENS, P296 RICHARDS P, 1985, INDIGENOUS AGR REVOL ROGGERI H, 1998, TROPICAL FRESHWATER SILLITOE P, 1998, CURR ANTHROPOL, V39, P223 SILVIUS MJ, 2000, PHYS CHEM EARTH PT B, V25, P645 SOLOMON A, 1994, ETHIOPIA AFRICAN S A, V13 STUIP MAM, 2002, SOCIOECONOMICS WETLA SWIFT J, 1979, IDB B, V10, P41 TAFESSE A, 1996, THESIS U TRIER TRIFFEN M, 1994, MORE PEOPLE LESS ERO VANVELDHUIZEN L, 1997, FARMERS RES PRACTICE WANG G, 1982, C KNOWL UT THEOR MET WARREN MD, 1995, CULTURAL DIMENSION D WOOD AP, 1996, SAH WORKSH 1996, P119 WOOD AP, 2002, STRATEGIES WISE USE, P81 WOOD AP, 2002, SUSTAINABLE WETLAND WU B, 2004, N SHAANXI AGR HUMAN, P2181 ZERIHUN W, 1998, UNPUB PLANT BIODIVER NR 70 TC 0 J9 GEOGR J BP 306 EP 323 PY 2005 PD DEC VL 171 GA 996HY UT ISI:000234166200002 ER PT J AU Thomalla, F Schmuck, H TI 'We all knew that a cyclone was coming': Disaster preparedness and the cyclone of 1999 in Orissa, India SO DISASTERS LA English DT Article C1 Stockholm Environm Inst, S-10314 Stockholm, Sweden. RP Thomalla, F, Stockholm Environm Inst, Lilla Nygatan 1, S-10314 Stockholm, Sweden. AB Imagine that a cyclone is coming, but that those living in the affected areas do nothing or too little to protect themselves. This is precisely what happened in the coastal state of Orissa, India. Individuals and communities living in regions where natural hazards are a part of daily life develop strategies to cope with and adapt to the impacts of extreme events. In October 1999, a cyclone killed 10,000 people according to government statistics, however, the unofficial death toll is much higher. This article examines why such a large loss of life occurred and looks at measures taken since then to initiate comprehensive disaster-preparedness programmes and to construct more cyclone shelters. The role of both governmental organisations and NGOs in this is critically analysed. The good news is that, based on an assessment of disaster preparedness during a small cyclone in November 2002, it can be seen that at community-level awareness was high and that many of the lessons learnt in 1999 were put into practice. Less positive, however, is the finding that at the state level collaboration continues to be problematic. CR *ADB, 1994, CLIM CHANG AS IND CO *BMTPC, 1997, VULN ATL IND 1 3 *DEC, 2000, IND EV EXP DEC IND C *GIO, 2001, CENS IND *GIO, 2002, 10 5 YEAR PLAN 2002 *IFRC, 2000, WAK DEV IND OR CYCL *IFRC, 2002, WORLD DIS REP *IFRC, 2003, DIS PREP CLIM CHANG *IMM, 2001, LEARN LESS CYCL STUD *IPCC, 2001, 3 IPCC TAR *OSDMA, 2001, P WORKSH ORG OR STAT *OXF, 2000, IND DIS REP *PEP, 2002, POV CLIM CHANG RED V *SMRC, 1998, IMP TROP CYCL COAST *TERI, 2001, IND STAT ENV 2001 *UNEP, 2002, GLOB ENV OUTL, V3 *UNWFP, 2000, FOOD INS ATL OR VULN ALI A, 1997, MAUSAM, V48, P305 ANDYOPADHYAY SK, 1999, UN FAO MISS REP AGR BEHERA A, 2002, GOV NGO COLL DIS RED BHASKAR R, 1997, MAUSAM, V48, P113 BHATT JR, 2002, CLIMATE CHANGE INDIA BLAIKIE PM, 1994, RISK NATURAL HAZARDS, V1, P1 CHOWDHURY AMR, 1993, DISASTERS, V17, P291 DAS K, 2002, EC POLITICAL WE 1130, P4784 DAS PK, 1991, P INDIAN AS-EARTH, V100, P177 DASH B, 2002, EC POLITICAL WE 1019, P4270 DASH B, 2002, THESIS JAWARAHAL NEH EMMANUEL KA, 1988, NATURE, V326, P483 ERN C, 1993, B WORLD HEALTH ORGAN, V71, P73 HOUGHTON JT, 1990, CLIMATE CHANGE IPCC KUMAR KR, 2002, CLIMATE CHANGE INDIA LONGSHORE D, 1998, ENCY HURRICANES TYPH NICHOLLS RJ, 1995, J GLOBAL ENV ENG, V1, P137 PACHAURI RK, 1992, REGIONS GLOBAL WARMI PALAKUDIYIL T, 2003, FACING STORM LOCAL C ROY BC, 2002, 8 C PART UN FRAM CON SHUKLA PR, 2002, CLIMATE CHANGE INDIA TWIGG J, 2003, EARLY WARNING SYSTEM VENGHAUS G, 2000, MAST CONT PLAN OR DI NR 40 TC 0 J9 DISASTERS BP 373 EP 387 PY 2004 PD DEC VL 28 IS 4 GA 878ZQ UT ISI:000225686600002 ER PT J AU Liverman, DM TI Vulnerability and adaptation to drought in Mexico SO NATURAL RESOURCES JOURNAL LA English DT Article C1 Univ Arizona, Dept Geog & Reg Dev, Tucson, AZ 85721 USA. RP Liverman, DM, Univ Arizona, Dept Geog & Reg Dev, Tucson, AZ 85721 USA. AB The country of Mexico has a long and varied experience with drought, whether described by early historical chronicles or contemporary climatic data and disaster declarations. Much of Mexico is semi-arid and interannual rainfall is highly variable. The experience of drought has resulted in a wide range of adaptations to climate variability, yet today many Mexicans are still extremely vulnerable to lower than average rainfall. This article provides an overview of the nature, causes and consequences of drought in Mexico, focusing on how vulnerability and adaptations vary over time anti space. Some preliminary results of a case study of the recent drought in northern Mexico illustrate the state of vulnerability and the limits of adaptation in contemporary Mexico. CR 1996, ESTADO SONORA PROGRA 1996, JORNADA 0526, P1 1996, NACIONAL 0515 1996, SOURCEMEX, V7 *AGR TRAD OFF AM E, 1996, EC CONS MEX DROUGHT *AM EMB MEX CIT, 1997, MEX AGR SIT OUTL *I NAC EST, 1985, GEOGR INF EST HIST M, P337 *SERV MET NAC, 1976, NORM CLIM PER 1940 7 ACEVESNAVARRO E, 1985, P WAT WAT POL WORLD ALEMAN PAM, 1974, WORLD SURVEY CLIMATO, V11, P345 ALTIERI MA, 1987, HUM ECOL, V15, P189 APPENDINI K, 1992, MILPA TORTIBONOS RES APPENDINI K, 1994, FOOD POLICY, V19, P149 BAHRE CJ, 1978, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V68, P145 BALLING RC, 1988, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V13, P99 BELLON MR, 1991, HUM ECOL, V19, P389 BROWN RB, 1985, POLLEN RECORDS LATE, P71 BRUSH SB, 1988, HUM ECOL, V16, P307 BRYANT NA, 1990, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V17, P243 CASASUS C, 1994, J AM WATER WORKS ASS, V86, P69 CAVAZOS T, 1990, INT J CLIMATOL, V10, P377 CERVERA JSY, 1981, J HYDROL, V51, P41 CERVERA JSY, 1981, J HYDROL, V51, P43 CULBERT TP, 1973, CLASSIC MAYA COLLAPS, P11 CUMMINGS RG, 1972, WATER RESOURCE MANAG CUMMINGS RG, 1989, WATERWORKS IMPROVING DAHLIN BH, 1983, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V5, P245 DEEVEY ES, 1944, AM ANTIQUITY, V10, P135 DEJANVRY A, 1995, REFORMAS SECTOR AGR, P67 DIAZCISNEROS H, 1994, EC RESTRUCTURING RUR DILLEY FB, 1993, THESIS PENN STATE U, P220 DILLEY M, 1996, INT J CLIMATOL, V16, P1019 DOUGLAS A, 1996, MEXICAN TEMPERATURE EAKIN HC, 1997, THESIS U ARIZ, P156 FLORESCANO E, 1969, PRECIOS MAIZ CRISIS FLORESCANO E, 1980, NEXOS, V32, P9 GOMEZ MA, 1989, CIUDADES MEXICANAS U HODELL DA, 1995, NATURE, V375, P391 KIRKBY VT, 1973, MEMOIRS MUSEUM ANTHR, V1 LEES S, 1976, ECOLOGIST, V6, P20 LIVERMAN DM, 1989, UNPUB ANN M ASS AM G LIVERMAN DM, 1990, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V80, P49 LIVERMAN DM, 1991, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V1, P351 LIVERMAN DM, 1994, ENV RISKS HAZARDS, P326 LIVERMAN DM, 1995, UNPUB 1 OP C HUM DIM LIVERMAN DM, 1996, UNPUB PRELIMINARY AS LOREY DE, 1990, US MEXICO BORDER STA, P93 MANGELSDORF PC, 1974, CORN MATILDE PU, 1995, JORNADA 0529, P5 MEDELLINLEAL F, 1978, I INVESTIGACION ZONA METCALFE SE, 1987, GEOGR J, V153, P211 MICHAELS PJ, 1982, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V4, P255 MINNIS PE, 1991, J ETHNOBIOL, V11, P231 MORICHI M, 1995, DROUGHT BRINGS SEVER MURPHY AD, 1991, SOCIAL INEQUALITY OA MUSSET A, 1991, LEAU VIVE EAU MORTE NGUYEN D, 1979, ECON J, V89, P624 PATTERSON J, 1996, AGR SITUATION DROUGH QUINTANA VM, 1996, INFOSEL SCOTT SD, 1966, DENDROCHRONOLOGY MEX VELASCO E, 1996, EXCELSIOR PRIMERA PL, V4 WILKEN GC, 1987, GOOD FARMERS TRADITI, P176 ZENTENO RB, 1988, GRANDES PROBLEMAS CI NR 63 TC 5 J9 NATUR RESOUR J BP 99 EP 115 PY 1999 PD WIN VL 39 IS 1 GA 279LJ UT ISI:000085045000016 ER PT J AU Smith, JB TI Setting priorities for adapting to climate change SO GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS LA English DT Article AB It is not likely that efforts to control greenhouse gas emissions will completely eliminate the risk of climate change, Thus, policymakers will eventually have to address adaptation to the effects of climate change, Given the uncertainties about the timing, direction, and magnitude of regional climate change, it might seem preferable to postpone adaptive measures until after climate changes, Yet, this may not produce satisfactory results if climate change impacts are irreversible or catastrophic, long-lived resource systems are affected, or current trends make adaptation less likely to succeed in the future, In these cases, policy changes in anticipation of climate change may be justified, Anticipatory climate change measures need to be flexible-they should absorb impacts or enable a system to quickly recovery under a wide variety of climate situations. In addition, they should be economically efficient, that is their benefits should exceed their costs, Although many measures are appropriate anticipatory measures, not all of them need to be implemented now, Those most in need of immediate implementation should meet at least one of the following criteria: (1) address irreversible or costly impacts; (2) be urgent, i.e. reverse trends that make adoption of the measure more difficult over time; or (3) address long-term decisions, such as building infrastructure, A method is proposed for natural resource policymakers to use in analyzing the need for anticipatory adaptation policies and the effectiveness of policy options to anticipate climate change. This method enables policy makers to identify those anticipatory policies most in need of immediate implementation. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science Ltd, All rights reserved. CR *NAS, 1979, CARB DIOX CLIM SCI A *NAS, 1992, POL IMPL GREENH WARM *OFF TECHN ASS, 1993, OTAO567 *OFF TECHN ASS, 1993, OTAO568 *VEMAP MEMB, 1995, GLOBAL BIOGEOCHEMICA, V9, P407 *WWF, 1992, CAN NATUR SURV GLOB AUSUBEL JH, 1991, AM SCI, V79, P210 BALDWIN MF, 1989, POTENTIAL EFFECTS GL BENIOFF R, 1996, VULNERABILITY ADAPTA CARTER TR, 1994, IPCC TECHNICAL GUIDE DANSGAARD W, 1993, NATURE, V364, P218 DAVIS MB, 1989, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V15, P75 ESTESSMARGIASSI S, 1992, COMMUNICATION FIERING MB, 1990, CLIMATE CHANGE US WA, P75 FORD A, 1990, ENERG POLICY, P331 FREDERICK KD, 1990, CLIMATE CHANGE US WA, P395 GLANTZ MH, 1988, SOC RESPONSES REGION HOUGHTON JT, 1990, CLIMATE CHANGE IPCC HOUGHTON JT, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995 LEWANDROWSKI JK, 1993, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V23, P1 LOGAN DM, 1994, MODELING RENEWABLE E MAJOR DC, 1992, 28 ANN C S MAN WAT R MCCULLOCH J, 1995, P WORKSH IMPR RESP A MORSE LE, 1993, POTENTIAL EFFECT CLI MURPHY DD, 1992, GLOBAL WARMING BIOL, P355 NICHOLLS RJ, 1995, CLIMATE CHANGES INT PATZ JA, 1996, JAMA-J AM MED ASSOC, V275, P217 PETERS RL, 1992, GLOBAL WARMING BIOL POLAND WB, 1988, ENERGY J, V9, P19 RIEBSAME WE, 1991, GREAT PLAINS RES, V1, P133 ROSENBERG NJ, 1992, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V21, P385 SCHWARZ HE, 1990, CLIMATE CHANGE US WA, P341 SMIT B, 1996, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V33, P7 SMITH JB, 1989, POTENTIAL EFFECTS GL SMITH JB, 1991, ADAPTING CLIMATE CHA SMITH TM, 1993, NATURE, V361, P523 TITUS JG, 1990, APA J SUM, P311 TITUS JG, 1991, ENVIRON MANAGE, V15, P39 WATSON RT, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, V1, P1 NR 39 TC 9 J9 GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANGE BP 251 EP 264 PY 1997 PD OCT VL 7 IS 3 GA YL583 UT ISI:A1997YL58300004 ER PT J AU Adams, RM Hurd, BH Lenhart, SS Leary, N TI Effects of global climate change on agriculture: an interpretative review SO CLIMATE RESEARCH LA English DT Review C1 Oregon State Univ, Dept Agr & Resource Econ, Corvallis, OR 97331 USA. Hagler Bailly Inc, Boulder, CO 80306 USA. US EPA, Washington, DC 20460 USA. RP Adams, RM, Oregon State Univ, Dept Agr & Resource Econ, Corvallis, OR 97331 USA. AB Climate is the primary determinant of agricultural productivity. Concern over the potential effects of long-term climatic change on agriculture has motivated a substantial body of research over the past decade. This body of research addresses possible physical effects of climatic change on agriculture, such as changes in crop and livestock yields, as well as the economic consequences of these potential yield changes. This paper reviews the extant literature on these physical and economic effects and interprets this research in terms of common themes or findings. Of particular interest are findings concerning the role of human adaptations in responding to climate change, possible regional impacts to agricultural systems and potential changes in patterns of food production and prices. Limitations and sensitivities of these findings are discussed and key areas of uncertainty are highlighted. Finally, some speculations regarding issues of potential importance in interpreting and using information on climate change and agriculture are presented. CR *CAST, 1992, 119 CAST *CNSCG, 1997, DRAFT FIN REP UR CLI *FAO, 1995, STAT FOOD AGR 1995 *IPCC, 1996, IPCC 2 ASS REP, V2, P427 *OTA, 1993, PREP UNC CLIM ADAMS RM, 1986, AM J AGR ECON, V68, P885 ADAMS RM, 1988, W J AGR EC, V13, P348 ADAMS RM, 1990, NATURE, V345, P219 ADAMS RM, 1995, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V30, P147 ADAMS RM, 1998, IN PRESS EC CLIMATE, CH2 ALLEN LH, 1987, GLOBAL BIOGEOCHEM CY, V1, P1 ALSTON JM, 1995, SCI SCARCITY PRINCIP ANTLE JM, 1987, AM J AGR ECON, V69, P509 BAETHGEN WE, 1994, IMPLICATIONS CLIMATE, P1 CROSSON PR, 1994, FOOD POLICY, V19, P105 CURE JD, 1986, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V38, P127 DARWIN RF, 1995, 703 USDA EC RES SERV DESIQUEIRA OJF, 1994, IMPLICATIONS CLIMATE DILLON JD, 1990, ANAL RESPONSE CROP L EASTERLING WE, 1993, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V24, P23 EASTERLING WE, 1996, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V80, P1 HALL D, 1997, P INT ASS AGR EC BIA HANSON JD, 1993, AGR SYST, V41, P487 HURD BH, 1994, J AGR RESOUR ECON, V19, P313 KAISER HM, 1993, AM J AGR ECON, V75, P387 KANE SM, 1992, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V21, P17 KIMBALL BA, 1983, AGRON J, V75, P779 LIVERMAN DM, 1991, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V1, P351 MAGRIN GO, IN PRESS P C NAT ASS MENDELSOHN R, 1994, AM ECON REV, V84, P753 POPE RD, 1982, AM J AGR ECON, V63, P161 REILLY JM, 1993, AM ECON REV, V83, P306 REILLY JM, 1994, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V4, P24 RITCHIE J, 1989, USERS GUIDE CERES MA ROSENBERG NJ, 1992, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V21, P385 ROSENZWEIG C, 1994, NATURE, V367, P133 ROSENZWEIG C, 1995, CLIMATE CHANGES INT, P27 ROSENZWEIG NJ, 1994, 230B94003 EPA ROSENZWEIG NJ, 1995, CONSEQUENCES SUM, P24 SALA OE, 1994, IMPLICATIONS CLIMATE, P1 SCHERAGA JD, 1993, ILASA COLL PAPER SER, P107 SCHIMMELPFENNIG D, 1996, 740 USDA NAT RES ENV SEGERSON K, 1998, EC IMPACTS CLIMATE C SMITH JB, 1996, VULNERABILITY ADAPTA SUTHERST RW, 1995, INSECTS CHANGING ENV, P59 WAGGONER PE, 1983, AGR CLIMATE CHANGED, P383 NR 46 TC 14 J9 CLIMATE RES BP 19 EP 30 PY 1998 PD DEC 17 VL 11 IS 1 GA 168YF UT ISI:000078720200003 ER PT J AU Vasquez-Leon, M West, CT Finan, TJ TI A comparative assessment of climate vulnerability: agriculture and ranching on both sides of the US-Mexico border SO GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS LA English DT Article C1 Univ Arizona, Bur Appl Res Anthorpol, Tucson, AZ 85721 USA. RP Vasquez-Leon, M, Univ Arizona, Bur Appl Res Anthorpol, Anthropol Room 316,POB 210030, Tucson, AZ 85721 USA. AB Social science research on climate vulnerability tends to be limited to case studies in either industrial countries or in less-developed nations. The empirical study presented here takes a comparative approach across this divide by examining rural livelihoods on both sides of the United States-Mexico border. Looking beyond single agricultural systems, crossing borders and listening to rural producers in this semi-arid environment offers a more complete picture of how differences in access to resources, state involvement, class and ethnicity result in drastically different vulnerabilities within a similar biophysical context. We distinguish between coping and buffering in examining adaptation strategies and place an emphasis on the historical context of vulnerability as a dynamic social process with socioeconomic and environmental consequences. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *AR DEP WAT RES, 1994, AR WAT RES HYDR SUMM, V2 *INEGI, 1994, DAT EJ COM AGR 11 CE *INEGI, 1996, SON DAT EJ COM AGR 1 *INEGI, 2000, 12 CENS GEN POBL VIV *ISPE, 1999, PREP CHANG CLIM POT *MUN AL, 1989, PLAN DEES MUN 1988 1 *NASS, 1997, AR CENS UAGR USDA *SAGAR, 1997, UNPUB *US CENS BUR, 2000, GAZ COUNT SUBD *US CENS BUR, 2000, GAZ PLAC *USDA, 1997, NAT AGR STAT SERV FA ADGER N, 2003, GLOB ENV CHANG FOOD ADGER WN, 1999, MITIGATION ADAPTATIO, V4, P252 AYER H, 2001, ARIZONA WATER USE AR BAHRE CJ, 1991, LEGACY CHANGE HIST BAHRE CJ, 1996, J SW, V38, P1 BAILEY LR, 1994, WELL ALL WEAR SILKS BLAIKIE PM, 1994, RISK NATURAL HAZARDS, V1, P1 BOHLE HG, 1994, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V4, P37 BROOKS E, 1995, REGIONS RISK COMP TH, P255 BRYANT CR, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P181 CAMPBELL DJ, 1999, HUM ECOL, V27, P377 CHAVEZ OE, 1999, NAT RESOUR J, V39, P35 CHIOTTI QP, 1997, AGR RESTRUCTURING SU CLARK L, 1997, AGR DEV RESOURCE MAN, P11 CONLEY J, 1999, CLIMAS REPORT SERIES CORBETT J, 1988, WORLD DEV, V16, P1099 DAVIES S, 1996, ADAPTABLE LIVELIHOOD EAKIN H, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P19 ERICKSON K, 1997, DOING TEAM ETHNOGRAP FINAN TJ, 2000, CLIMAS REPORT SERIES FINAN TJ, 2002, CLIMATE RES, V21, P299 GRANJON D, 1999, ENQUETES RESULTATS A HAMMER GL, 2000, APPL SEASONAL CLIMAT HEWITT K, 1983, INTERPRETATIONS CALA HUSAIN A, 2000, HISPANIC FARMERS SUE ILBERY B, 1997, AGR RESTRUCTURING SU JOHNSON D, 1992, ECOLOGIA RECURSOS NA KANE SM, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P1 KASPERSON JX, 1995, REGIONS RISK, V1, P1 KATES RW, 1985, CLIMATE IMPACT ASSES, P151 KATES RW, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P5 KINSEY B, 1998, WORLD DEV, V26, P89 LIVERMAN DM, 1999, NAT RESOUR J, V39, P99 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 MERIDETH R, 2001, PRIMER CLIMATIC VARI MEZEHAUSKEN E, 2000, MIGRATION ADAPTATION, V5, P379 MOREHOUSE BJ, 2000, NAT RESOUR J, V40, P783 NELSON DR, 2000, PRACTICING ANTHR, V22, P6 NORBERGBOHM V, 2001, GLOBAL ENV RISK, P55 PENA EM, 1985, HIST CONT SONORA 19, P541 SANDERSON SE, 1981, AGRARIAN POPULISM ME SCHULTZ VB, 1980, SW TOWN STORY WILLCO SHERIDAN TE, 1996, ARIZONA HIST SHERIDAN TE, 2001, HUM ORGAN, V60, P141 SMIT B, 1999, MITIGATION ADAPTATIO, V4, P199 SMIT B, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P223 SMITHERS J, 1997, AGR RESTRUCTURING SU, P167 SPICER EH, 1962, CYCLES CONQUEST IMPA STERN PC, 1999, MAKING CLIMATE FORES TOL RSJ, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE EXTRE, P17 VARLEY A, 1994, DISASTERS DEV ENV VASQUEZLEON M, IN PRESS POLITICAL E VASQUEZLEON M, 2002, CLIMAS REPORT SERIES VOSS SF, 1982, PERIPHERY 19 CENTURY WAGONER JJ, 1952, CLIMATE IND S ARIZON, V20 WARRICK RA, 1983, INTERPRETATIONS CALA, P67 WATSON RT, 1998, REGIONAL IMPACTS CLI, V1, P1 WEST RC, 1993, SONORA ITS GEOGRAPHI ZAMACONA GG, 1990, COLECCION EL TEJABAN, V3 NR 70 TC 0 J9 GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANGE BP 159 EP 173 PY 2003 PD OCT VL 13 IS 3 GA 725ND UT ISI:000185548500002 ER PT J AU Rounsevell, MDA Evans, SP Bullock, P TI Climate change and agricultural soils: Impacts and adaptation SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Review C1 Cranfield Univ, Sch Agr Food & Environm, Soil Survey & Land Res Ctr, Bedford MK45 4DT, England. RP Rounsevell, MDA, Univ Catholique Louvain, Pl Louis Pasteur 3, B-1348 Louvain, Belgium. AB This article reviews the current state of knowledge on the response of soils to climate change, and the implications such changes have for agriculture. The article is based on the material reported in the IPCC second assessment report (Watson et al., 1996) and updated with more recent information, where appropriate. The review highlights the importance of understanding the dynamics of soil processes when addressing climate change impacts on agriculture. Rapid soil responses to climate change (e.g. soil water, organic carbon and erodibility) have been widely investigated and reported in the literature. However, it is important that longer-term processes (e.g. pedogenesis) are not ignored by the research community because these have potentially important implications for long-term agricultural land use and are often irreversible. 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SHNAYDMAN VM, 1993, WATER RES MANAGE, V7, P39 SINGH B, 1991, AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON, V35, P327 SMETTEM KRJ, 1992, SOIL TILL RES, V22, P27 SMITH P, 1996, NATO ASI SERIES I, V38, P81 SMITH TM, 1993, WATER AIR SOIL POLL, V70, P19 SOLOMON AM, 1993, WATER AIR SOIL POLL, V70, P595 TEGEN I, 1996, NATURE, V380, P419 THOMPSON SA, 1992, PHYSICAL GEOGR, V13, P31 TINKER PB, 1990, SOILS WARMER EARTH, P71 VANVEEN JA, 1981, CAN J SOIL SCI, V61, P185 VARALLYAY G, 1994, NATO ASI SER, V23, P39 WAELBROECK C, 1993, ECOL MODEL, V69, P185 WAGENET RJ, 1992, QUANTITATIVE MODELLI, P17 WATSON RT, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, V1, P1 WHITE RE, 1981, INTRO PRINCIPLES PRA, P198 WOLF J, 1993, EUR J AGRON, V2, P281 WOLF J, 1995, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V29, P299 WOODWARD FI, 1995, NEW PHYTOL, V131, P311 NR 133 TC 5 J9 CLIMATIC CHANGE BP 683 EP 709 PY 1999 PD DEC VL 43 IS 4 GA 248KD UT ISI:000083272900003 ER PT J AU Frickel, S Davidson, DJ TI Building environmental states - Legitimacy and rationalization in sustainability governance SO INTERNATIONAL SOCIOLOGY LA English DT Article C1 Tulane Univ, Dept Sociol, New Orleans, LA 70118 USA. Univ Alberta, Dept Rural Econ, Edmonton, AB T6G 2H1, Canada. Univ Alberta, Dept Renewable Resources, Edmonton, AB T6G 2H1, Canada. RP Frickel, S, Tulane Univ, Dept Sociol, 220 Newcomb Hall, New Orleans, LA 70118 USA. AB This article explores the potential for nation-states to become substantial contributors to sustainability governance. This potential resides in the ability of nation-states to make environmental protection a basic goal, in part by committing institutional resources toward the formation and implementation of substantive actions perceived necessary for long-term environmental sustainability. Existing research suggests that nation-states undertake environmental action in order to maintain legitimacy in the face of political pressure. While the maintenance of legitimacy is necessary, we argue that a substantive state role in sustainability governance is also dependent upon the rationalization of state environmental roles. Further, rationalization can be fostered through the enrichment of embedded state-societal networks with two key actors in civil society: environmental justice movements and environmental knowledge professionals. This article develops a conceptual framework that grounds sustainability efforts in rationalization processes and examines the synergistic potential for these two social actors to help build states that institute fundamental environmental reform. 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RP Beechie, T, NOAA Fisheries, NW Fisheries Sci Ctr, 2725 Montlake Blvd E, Seattle, WA 98112 USA. AB Life history diversity of imperiled Pacific salmon Oncorhynchus spp. substantially contributes to their persistence, and conservation of such diversity is a critical element of recovery efforts. Preserving and restoring diversity of life history traits depends in part on environmental factors affecting their expression. We analyzed relationships between annual hydrograph patterns and life history. traits (spawn timing, age at spawning, age at outmigration, and body size) of Puget Sound Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) to identify environmental indicators of current and historic diversity. Based on mean monthly flow patterns, we identified three hydrologic regimes: snowmelt-dominated, rainfall-dominated, and transitional. Chinook populations in snowmelt-dominated areas contained higher proportions of the stream-type life history (juvenile residence > 1 year in freshwater), had older spawners, and tended to spawn earlier in the year than populations in rainfall-dominated areas. There are few extant Puget Sound populations dominated by the stream-type life history, as several populations with high proportions of stream-type fish have been extirpated by construction of dams that prevent migration into snowmelt-dominated reaches. The few extant populations are thus a high priority for conservation. The low level of genetic distinction between stream-type and ocean-type (juvenile residence < 1 year in freshwater) life histories suggests that allowing some portion of extant populations to recolonize habitats above dams might allow re-expression of suppressed life history characteristics, creating a broader spatial distribution of the stream-type life history. Climate change ultimately may limit the effectiveness of some conservation efforts, as stream-type Chinook may be dependent on a diminishing snowmelt-dominated habitat. Published by Elsevier Ltd. CR *ESU, 1999, FED REG NOT PUG SOUN, V64 *WDF WDW WWTIT, 1993, 1992 WASH STAT SALM ADKISON MD, 1995, CAN J FISH AQUAT SCI, V52, P2762 BEACHAM TD, 1987, CAN J FISH AQUAT SCI, V44, P244 BEACHAM TD, 1989, CAN J ZOOL, V67, P2081 BEER WN, 2001, CAN J FISH AQUAT SCI, V58, P943 BESCHTA RL, 2000, J HYDROL, V233, P102 BLACK RW, 1998, 974164 US GEOL SURV BOOTH DB, 1997, J AM WATER RESOUR AS, V33, P1077 BRANNON EL, 1972, INT PAC SALMON FISH, V21 BRANNON EL, 1981, CAN J ZOOL, V59, P1548 BRANNON EL, 1987, CAN SPEC PUBL FISH A, V96, P120 CORONADO C, 1998, B MAR SCI, V62, P409 DALY C, 1998, W US AVERAGE MONTHLY EBBERT JC, 2000, 1216 USGS FORD MJ, 2004, EVOLUTION ILLUMINATE, P338 FRANSEN S, 1977, STILLAGUAMISH WATERS GOOD TP, 2005, NMFSNWFSC66 NOAA US GROOT C, 1991, PACIFIC SALMON LIFE HANKIN DG, 1993, CAN J FISH AQUAT SCI, V50, P347 HEALEY MC, 1991, PACIFIC SALMON LIFE, P311 HEALEY MC, 1995, AM FISH S S, V17, P176 HEALEY MC, 2001, J FISH BIOL, V58, P1545 HENDRY AP, 2003, CONSERV BIOL, V17, P795 HILBORN R, 2003, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V100, P6564 HODGSON S, 2002, CAN J ZOOL, V80, P542 KENDALL BE, 2002, CONSERV BIOL, V16, P109 KERWIN J, 1999, SALMON HABITAT LIMIT KINNISON MI, 1998, CAN J FISH AQUAT SCI, V55, P1946 KINNISON MT, 2001, EVOLUTION, V55, P1656 MANLY BFJ, 1994, MULTIVARIATE STAT ME MANTUA N, 2004, AM FISH S S, V43, P127 MARSCHALL EA, 1998, CAN J FISH AQUAT S1, V55, P48 MARSHALL AR, 1995, GENETIC DIVERSITY UN MCELHANY P, 2000, NMFSNWFSC42 US DEP C METCALFE NA, 1998, CAN J FISH AQUAT S1, V55, P93 MILLER I, 1999, JE FREUNDS MATH STAT MONTGOMERY DR, 1999, CAN J FISH AQUAT SCI, V56, P377 MOTE PW, 2003, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V61, P45 MYERS JM, 1998, NMFSNWFSC35 NOAA US NEHLSEN W, 1991, FISHERIES, V16, P4 PESS G, 2003, RESTORATION PUGET SO, P129 QUINN TP, 1985, CONTRIB MAR SCI S, V27, P353 QUINN TP, 1996, ECOLOGY, V77, P1151 QUINN TP, 2000, EVOLUTION, V54, P1372 QUINN TP, 2001, CAN J ZOOL, V79, P1782 QUINN TP, 2002, T AM FISH SOC, V131, P591 RICKER WE, 1972, STOCK CONCEPT PACIFI, P19 RONI P, 1995, N AM J FISH MANAGE, V15, P325 RUCKELSHAUS M, IN PRESS INDEPENDENT RUCKELSHAUS M, 2003, IMPORTANCE SPECIES P, P305 RUCKELSHAUS M, 2004, SPECIES CONSERVATION, P208 RUCKELSHAUS MH, 2002, ANNU REV ECOL SYST, V33, P665 SMITH SB, 1969, S SALM TROUT STREAMS, P21 STEARNS SC, 1992, EVOLUTION LIFE HIST TAYLOR EB, 1990, J FISH BIOL, V37, P1 TAYLOR EB, 1991, AQUACULTURE, V98, P185 THORPE JE, 1987, AM FISH SOC S, V1, P244 UNWIN MJ, 1997, FISH B-NOAA, V95, P812 UNWIN MJ, 2000, J FISH BIOL, V57, P943 VENABLES WN, 1998, MODERN APPL STAT S WAPLES RS, 2001, J FISH BIOL A, V59, P1 WAPLES RS, 2004, EVOLUTION, V58, P386 WATTERS JV, 2003, BIOL CONSERV, V112, P435 WEBB JH, 1996, CAN J FISH AQUAT SCI, V53, P2739 WILLIAMS JR, 1985, 84144B US GEOL SURV WILLIAMS RW, 1975, CATALOG WASHINGTON S, V1 WILLSON MF, 1997, PNWRP498 USDA FOR SE NR 68 TC 1 J9 BIOL CONSERV BP 560 EP 572 PY 2006 PD JUL VL 130 IS 4 GA 058AQ UT ISI:000238636900009 ER PT J AU Rivington, M Matthews, KB Bellocchi, G Buchan, K Stockle, CO Donatelli, M TI An integrated assessment approach to conduct analyses of climate change impacts on whole-farm systems SO ENVIRONMENTAL MODELLING & SOFTWARE LA English DT Article C1 Macaulay Inst, Aberdeen AB15 8QH, Scotland. Res Inst Ind Crops, I-40128 Bologna, Italy. Washington State Univ, Dept Biol Syst Engn, Pullman, WA 99164 USA. RP Rivington, M, Macaulay Inst, Aberdeen AB15 8QH, Scotland. AB This paper argues that an integrated assessment (IA) approach, combining simulation modelling with deliberative processes involving decision makers and other stakeholders, has the potential to generate credible and relevant assessments of climate change impacts on farming systems. The justification for the approach proposed is that while simulation modelling provides an effective way of exploring the range of possible impacts of climate change and a means of testing the consequences of possible management or policy interventions, the interpretation of the outputs is highly dependent on the point of view of the stakeholder. Inevitably, whatever the responses to climate change, there will be tradeoffs between the benefits and costs to a range of stakeholders. The use of a deliberative process that includes stakeholders, both in defining the topics addressed and in debating the interpretations of the outcomes, addresses many of the limitations that have been previously identified in the use of computer-based tools for agricultural decision support. The paper further argues that the concepts of resilience and adaptive capacity are useful for the assessment of climate change impacts as they provide an underpinning theory for processes of change in land use systems. The integrated modelling framework (IMF) developed for the simulation of whole-farm systems is detailed, including components for crop and soil processes, livestock systems and a tool for scheduling of resource use within management plans. The use of the IMF for assessing climate change impacts is then outlined to demonstrate the range of analyses possible. The paper concludes with a critique of the IA approach and notes that issues of quantification and communication of uncertainty are central to the success of the methodology. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *FAO UNEP, 1977, FAO SOILS B, V34 *IPCC, 2000, SPEC REP EM SCEN *LADSS, 2005, LAND ALL DEC SUPP SY BELLOCCHI G, 2004, 8 EUR SOC AGR C 11 1, P219 COOPER G, 1997, J AGR ENG RES, V68, P253 EASTERLING WE, 1996, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V80, P1 FRANCIS PE, 1981, 108 MET OFF GHAFFARI A, 2002, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V55, P509 GUNDERSON LH, 2002, PANARCHY UNDERSTANDI, V1, P1 HARE MP, 2002, INTEGRATED ASSESSMEN, P73 HOLDEN NM, 2003, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V116, P181 IZAURRALDE RC, 2003, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V117, P97 JOHNSTON T, 2000, J AIR WASTE MANAGE, V50, P563 MATTHEWS KB, IN PRESS AGR SYSTEMS MATTHEWS KB, 2003, P MODSIM 2003 INT C, V4, P1534 MEINKE H, 2001, AGR SYST, V70, P493 MERRITT WS, 2005, ENVIRON MODELL SOFTW, V20, P1013 MURPHY JM, 2004, NATURE, V430, P768 REICHERT P, 2005, ENVIRON MODELL SOFTW, V20, P991 REILLY JM, 2003, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V57, P43 RIVINGTON M, 2003, P MODSIM 2003 INT C, V4, P1528 SOUTHWORTH J, 2002, CLIMATE RES, V22, P73 STOCKLE CO, 2003, EUR J AGRON, V18, P289 TAN GX, 2003, ECOL MODEL, V168, P357 TOPP CFE, 1996, AGR SYST, V52, P243 TUBIELLO FN, 2000, EUR J AGRON, V13, P179 TUBIELLO FN, 2002, EUR J AGRON, V18, P57 WALSH PD, 1981, WEATHER, V36, P201 WHEELER TR, 2000, AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON, V82, P159 NR 29 TC 2 J9 ENVIRON MODELL SOFTW BP 202 EP 210 PY 2007 PD FEB VL 22 IS 2 GA 112UH UT ISI:000242552300009 ER PT J AU Bouwer, LM Aerts, JCJH TI Financing climate change adaptation SO DISASTERS LA English DT Article C1 Vrije Univ Amsterdam, Inst Environm Studies, Fac Earth & Life Sci, Amsterdam, Netherlands. RP Bouwer, LM, Boelelaan 1087, NL-1081 HV Amsterdam, Netherlands. AB This paper examines the topic of financing adaptation in future climate change policies. A major question is whether adaptation in developing countries should be financed under the 1992 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), or whether funding should come from other sources. We present an overview of financial resources and propose the employment of a two-track approach: one track that attempts to secure climate change adaptation funding under the UNFCCC; and a second track that improves mainstreaming of climate risk management in development efforts. Developed countries would need to demonstrate much greater commitment to the funding of adaptation measures if the UNFCCC were to cover a substantial part of the costs. The mainstreaming of climate change adaptation could follow a risk management path, particularly in relation to disaster risk reduction. 'Climate-proofing' of development projects that currently do not consider climate and weather risks could improve their sustainability. CR *ADB, 2003, POV CLIM CHANG RED V *EC, 2002, EUR COMM RESP FLOOD *EC, 2003, CLIM CHANG CONT DEV *GEF, 2003, PROP GEF APPR AD CLI *GEF, 2004, GEF ASS ADDR AD *IFRC, 2002, WORLD DIS REP 2002 F *WORLD BANK, 2001, WORLD DEV REP 2000 2 AERTS JCJ, 2004, CLIMATE CHANGE CONTR BENSON C, 2004, HUMANITARIAN EXHANGE, P44 BENSON C, 2004, MEASURING MITIGATION BERGKAMP G, 1999, WETLANDS CLIMATE CHA BOUWER LM, 2004, CLIMATE OPTIONS BROA, P173 BOUWER LM, 2005, WATER SCI TECHNOL, V51, P89 BURTON I, 2000, CLIMATE CHANGE DEV, P153 BURTON I, 2004, LOOK BEFORE LEAP RIS FOX IB, 2003, REDUCING VULNERABILI GUPTA J, 2003, W0309 U AMST I ENV S HOFF H, 2003, RISK MANAGEMENT WATE HOFF H, 2005, VIERTELJAHRSHEFTE WI, V74, P196 HUQ S, 2002, CLIM POLICY, V2, P243 HUQ S, 2003, FUNDING ADAPTATION C HUQ S, 2003, MAINSTREAMING ADAPTA HUQ S, 2004, IDS BULL-I DEV STUD, V35, P15 KLEIN RJT, 2001, ADAPTATION CLIMATE C LIM B, 2004, USERS GUIDEBOOK ADAP MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 MIAMIDIAN E, 2005, DISASTER RISK MANAGE, V10 MIRZA MMQ, 2003, CLIM POLICY, V3, P233 RADKA M, 2000, METHODOLOGICAL TECHN ROJAS A, 2004, UNPUB LINKING ADAPTA ROSA LP, 2004, ENERG POLICY, V32, P1499 SMIT B, 1999, MITIGATION ADAPTATIO, V4, P199 SPERLING F, 2005, DISASTER RISK MANAGE TOL RSJ, 1998, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V8, P109 VANAALST M, 2004, PREPAREDNESS CLIMATE VELLINGA P, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, P417 NR 36 TC 2 J9 DISASTERS BP 49 EP 63 PY 2006 PD MAR VL 30 IS 1 GA 017LA UT ISI:000235693900005 ER PT J AU Corfee-Morlot, J Hohne, N TI Climate change: long-term targets and short-term commitments SO GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS LA English DT Article C1 ECOFYS Energy & Environm, D-50933 Cologne, Germany. OECD Environm Directorate, F-75775 Paris 16, France. RP Hohne, N, ECOFYS Energy & Environm, Eupener Str 59, D-50933 Cologne, Germany. AB International negotiations under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change could take several different approaches to advance future mitigation commitments. Options range from trying to reach consensus on specific long-term atmospheric concentration targets (e.g. 550 ppmv) to simply ignoring this contentious issue and focusing instead on what can be done in the nearer term. This paper argues for a strategy that lies between these two extremes. Internationally agreed threshold levels for certain categories of impacts or of risks posed by climate change could be translated into acceptable levels of atmospheric concentrations. This could help to establish a range of upper limits for global emissions in the medium term that could set the ambition level for negotiations on expanded GHG mitigation commitments. The paper thus considers how physical and socio-economic indicators of climate change impacts might be used to guide the setting of such targets. In an effort to explore the feasibility and implications of low levels of stabilisation, it also quantifies an intermediate global emission target for 2020 that keeps open the option to stabilise at 450 ppmv CO2 = If new efforts to reduce emissions are not forthcoming (e.g. the Kyoto Protocol or similar mitigation efforts fail), there is a significant chance that the option of 450 ppmv CO2 is out of reach as of 2020. Regardless of the preferred approach to shaping new international commitments on climate change, progress will require improved information on the avoided impacts climate change at different levels of mitigation and careful assessment of mitigation costs. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 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RP Vose, RS, Natl Climat Ctr, Asheville, NC 28801 USA. CR *IPCC, 2001, IPCC CLIM CHANG 2001 EASTERLING DR, 1996, PUBLICATION OAK RIDG, V4500 HANSEN J, 2001, J GEOPHYS RES-ATMOS, V106, P23947 KALNAY E, 2003, NATURE, V423, P528 KARL TR, 1986, J CLIM APPL METEOROL, V25, P145 OWEN TW, 1998, INT J REMOTE SENS, V19, P3451 NR 6 TC 0 J9 NATURE BP 213 EP 214 PY 2004 PD JAN 15 VL 427 IS 6971 GA 763HE UT ISI:000188068100033 ER PT J AU Dempsey, R Fisher, A TI Consortium for Atlantic Regional Assessment: Information tools for community adaptation to changes in climate or land use SO RISK ANALYSIS LA English DT Article C1 CSIRO, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia. Penn State Univ, Dept Agr Econ & Rural Sociol, University Pk, PA 16802 USA. Penn State Univ, Penn State Inst Environm, University Pk, PA 16802 USA. RP Dempsey, R, CSIRO, GPO Box 1666, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia. AB To inform local and regional decisions about protecting short-term and long-term quality of life, the Consortium for Atlantic Regional Assessment (CARA) provides data and tools (for the northeastern United States) that can help decisionmakers understand how outcomes of their decisions could be affected by potential changes in both climate and land use. On an interactive, user-friendly website, CARA has amassed data on climate (historical records and future projections for seven global climate models), land cover, and socioeconomic and environmental variables, along with tools to help decisionmakers tailor the data for their own decision types and locations. CARA Advisory Council stakeholders help identify what information and tools stakeholders would find most useful and how to present these: they also provide in-depth feedback for subregion case studies. General lessons include: (1) decisionmakers want detailed local projections for periods short enough to account for extreme events, in contrast to the broader spatial and temporal observations and projections that are available or consistent at a regional level; (2) stakeholders will not use such a website unless it is visually appealing and easy to find the information they want; (3) some stakeholders need background while others want to go immediately to data, and some want maps while others want text or tables. This article also compares what has been learned across case studies of Cape May County, New Jersey, Cape Cod, Massachusetts, and Hampton Roads, Virginia, relating specifically to sea-level rise. Lessons include: (1) groups can be affected differently by physical dangers compared with economic dangers; (2) decisions will differ according to decision makers' preferences about waiting and risk tolerance; (3) future scenarios and maps can help assess the impacts of dangers to emergency evacuation routes, homes, and infrastructure, and the natural environment; (4) residents' and decisionmakers' perceptions are affected by information about potential local impacts from global climate change. CR *NAST, 2000, CLIM CHANG IMP US PO *NAT RES COUNC, 1989, IMPR RISK COMM *NOAA, 2004, LIDAR DAT *NPA DAT SERV INC, 1998, REG EC PROJ SER NPA *PRES C COMM RISK, 1997, FRAM ENV HLTH RISK M *ROYAL SOC, 2002, ROYAL SOC M HELD DEC BAWDEN RJ, 1984, AGR SYST, V13, P205 BEIERLE TC, 2002, DEMOCRACY PRACTICE P BLAIKIE PM, 1994, RISK NATURAL HAZARDS, V1, P1 BOON J, 2005, SEA COAST SEA LEVEL BORD RJ, 1998, CLIMATE RES, V11, P75 BORD RJ, 2000, PUBLIC UNDERST SCI, V9, P205 BOSTROM A, 1994, RISK ANAL, V14, P959 BYERS W, 2000, J RURAL STUD, V16, P459 CALAVITA N, 1994, J AM PLANN ASSOC, V60, P483 CUTTER SL, 2000, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V90, P713 DANIELS T, 1998, CITY COUNTRY COLLIDE FISHER A, 1991, EV EFF RISK COMM WOR FISHER A, 1991, RISK ANAL, V11, P173 FISHER A, 2000, CLIM CHANG COMM 2000 FISHER A, 2000, PREPARING CHANGING C GHOSH K, 2004, AM AGR EC ASS AAEA A GILAU A, 2004, CARA ADV COUNC WORKS KASEMIR B, 2003, PUBLIC PARTICIPATION KATES RW, 2003, ENVIRONMENT, V45, P12 KIPP MJ, 2005, THESIS PENN STATE U LIVERMAN DM, 1990, UNDERSTANDING GLOBAL, V1, P27 LORENZONI I, 2004, INT WORKSH PERSP DAN MORGAN MG, 2002, RISK COMMUNICATION M, P351 MORROW BH, 1999, DISASTERS, V23, P1 MOSER SC, 2004, ENVIRONMENT, V46, P33 NAKICENOVIC N, 2000, INTERGOVERNMENTAL PA OCONNOR RE, 1998, RISK ANAL, V18, P547 OCONNOR RE, 1998, RISK DECISION POLICY, V3, P145 OCONNOR RE, 1999, RISK ANAL, V19, P461 OCONNOR RE, 2000, CLIMATE RES, V14, P255 READ D, 1994, RISK ANAL, V14, P971 REYNOLDS J, 1996, GUIDE INFORMATION MA RYGEL L, 2004, THESIS PENN STATE U SCHULTZ M, 2004, INFORMS C DENV 24 27 SPELLERBERG A, 2001, 200114 STAT NZ STEDMAN RC, 2006, IN PRESS SOC NATURAL WU SY, 2002, CLIMATE RES, V22, P255 NR 43 TC 0 J9 RISK ANAL BP 1495 EP 1509 PY 2005 PD DEC VL 25 IS 6 GA 996YF UT ISI:000234211500012 ER PT J AU ElRaey, M TI Vulnerability assessment of the coastal zone of the Nile delta of Egypt, to the impacts of sea level rise SO OCEAN & COASTAL MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article C1 Univ Alexandria, Inst Grad Studies & Res, Alexandria, Egypt. RP ElRaey, M, Univ Alexandria, Inst Grad Studies & Res, Alexandria, Egypt. AB A survey of the derailed quantitative assessment of the vulnerability of the Nile delta coast of Egypt to the impacts of sea level vise, is presented. GIS and remote-sensing techniques are used together with ground-based surveys to assess vulnerability of the most important economic and historic centers along the coast, the cities of Alexandria, Rosetta and Port-Said. Results indicate that, in these cities alone, over 2 million people will have to abandon their homes, 214000 jobs and over $35.0 billion in land value, property, and tourism income may also be lost due to a SLR of 50 cm. The loss of the world famous historic, cultural and archeological sites is unaccountable. The vulnerability of other low land in Egypt outside these cities remains to be assessed. Development of institutional capabilities for ICZM and upgrading awareness are highly recommended for adaptation in the long run. Periodic nourishment of Alexandria and Rosetta beaches, detached break waters for Polt-Said, and sand dune fixation are the recommended no regrets management measures. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *COAST RES I, DELFT HYDR RES AN VU BROADUS J, EFFECT CHANGES STRAT BRUUN P, 1962, J WATERWAYS HARBORS, V88, P117 ELRAEY M, CHANGING CLIMATE COA, V2, P225 ELRAEY M, INT J REMOTE SENSING ELRAEY M, 1988, ENVIRON MONIT ASSESS, P1 ELRAEY M, 1995, J COASTAL RES, V14, P190 ELRAEY M, 1997, J ENV MONITORING ASS, V47, P59 ELSAYED MK, 1988, RAPP COMM INT MER ME, V31 FRIHY OE, 1992, J INT UNION GEODESY, V11, P81 SESTINI G, 1989, 214 WG UNEPOCA STRZEPEK KM, 1995, CLIMATE CHANGES NR 12 TC 1 J9 OCEAN COAST MANAGE BP 29 EP 40 PY 1997 VL 37 IS 1 GA ZM705 UT ISI:000073567600004 ER PT J AU BUTZER, KW TI HUMAN RESPONSE TO ENVIRONMENTAL-CHANGE IN THE PERSPECTIVE OF FUTURE, GLOBAL CLIMATE SO QUATERNARY RESEARCH LA English DT Article C1 UNIV CHICAGO,DEPT GEOG,CHICAGO,IL 60637. 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SO CLIMATE POLICY LA English DT Article C1 Univ Coll London, Dept Geog, Environm Sci & Soc Res Programme, London WC1E 6BT, England. Stratus Consulting, Boulder, CO USA. OECD, Environm Directorate, Climate Change Programme, Paris, France. MIT, Joint Program Sci & Policy Global Change, Cambridge, MA 02139 USA. RP Morlot, JC, Univ Coll London, Dept Geog, Environm Sci & Soc Res Programme, London WC1E 6BT, England. AB With entry into force of the Kyoto Protocol in 2005, climate change negotiators are turning their attention to the question, 'Where do we go from here?. A key component of answering this question is in understanding the implications for society of alternative long-term goals for greenhouse gas concentrations. One challenge in ongoing negotiations is whether and how to deal with meanings of 'dangerous interference' as outlined in Article 2 of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. This study addresses Article 2 by suggesting the use of long-term goals to guide decisions about the stringency and timing of future climate change commitments. Focusing on mitigation policy benefits and, in particular, on avoiding long-term climate impacts, a number of management approaches and their implications are highlighted. After discussing some challenges of using scientific knowledge to monitor and manage progress, we look at what we can learn from current climate change global impact literature. Solid benchmark indicators appear to be available from global mean temperature change, ecosystems and coastal zone impacts information. We conclude by arguing for global goal-setting based on climate change effects and the use of indicators in these areas as part of post-2012 climate change negotiations. Aggregate global impacts suggest that 3-4 degrees C of global mean temperature increase by 2100 (compared to a reference period of 1990) may be a threshold beyond which all known sector impacts are negative and rising with increasing levels of warming. However, marginal benefits may accrue at lower levels of mean change. Thus, a prudent policy might aim for significantly lower levels and slower rates of global warming. 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RP Planton, S, Meteo France, Ctr Natl Rech Meteorol, Toulouse, France. AB The studies of the hydrological impacts of climate change due to the perturbation of the chemical composition of the atmosphere, exhibit a great diversity of methods. This diversity is a consequence of the difficulty of the climate scenario construction at the scale of hydrological models and of the difficulty in the representation of the statistical characteristics of extreme events. Beyond the influence of the methodologies, the results of hydrological impact studies remain conditioned by the quality of the used climate scenarios, in particular precipitation change in mean and variability. The issue of uncertainties integration in the whole impact assessment process is a new one that the scientific community need to address, to answer to the questioning of the stakeholder community. 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