FN ISI Export Format VR 1.0 MT MC ER PT J AU Ramos-Mane, C TI Vulnerability and adaptation to climate change in Latin America - Foreword SO CLIMATE RESEARCH LA English DT Editorial Material C1 Comis Nacl Cambio Global, Montevideo 11100, Uruguay. RP Ramos-Mane, C, Comis Nacl Cambio Global, Ciudadela 1414,Piso 6, Montevideo 11100, Uruguay. NR 0 TC 0 J9 CLIMATE RES BP U6 EP U6 PY 1997 PD DEC 29 VL 9 IS 1-2 GA ZD200 UT ISI:000072661400001 ER PT J AU Williams, CA Albertson, JD TI Dynamical effects of the statistical structure of annual rainfall on dryland vegetation SO GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY LA English DT Article C1 Duke Univ, Nicholas Sch Environm & Earth Sci, Durham, NC 27708 USA. RP Williams, CA, Duke Univ, Nicholas Sch Environm & Earth Sci, Durham, NC 27708 USA. AB In this study, we extend a model of daily dryland dynamics by parameterizing a modified version of a minimalistic annual model to examine how the statistical structure of annual rainfall and grazing intensity interact to influence dryland vegetation. With a Monte Carlo approach, an ensemble outcome provides a statistical description of likely dryland vegetation dynamics responding to variations in rainfall structure and grazing intensity. Results suggest that increased rainfall variability decreases the average and increases the variability of grass cover leading to more frequent degradation of the grass resource. Vegetation of drier regions is found to be more sensitive to interannual variability in rainfall. Concentrating this variability into an organized periodic mode further decreases the mean and increases the variability of grass cover. Hence, a shift toward lower, more variable, or more inter-annually correlated annual rainfall will likely lead to a general decrease in the grass resource and increased dryland vulnerability to degradation. Higher grazing intensity or lower annual rainfall both lead to more frequent and longer duration degradation of the grass condition. We note an interesting interaction in the response of grass biomass to grazing intensity and rainfall variability, where increased rainfall variability leads to longer duration degradation for low grazing, but shorter periods of degradation for high grazing. Once grass reaches a degraded condition, we find that woody vegetation strongly suppresses recovery even if successive rainfall is high. Overall, these findings suggest that the projected increase in interannual rainfall variability will likely decrease grass cover and potentially lead to more frequent, longer lasting degradation of dryland vegetation, particularly if enhanced rainfall variability is concentrated in long period (e.g. decadal) modes. CR *IPCC, 2001, CLIM CHANG 2001 SYNT ANDERIES JM, 2002, ECOSYSTEMS, V5, P23 ANDERSON JE, 2001, ECOL MONOGR, V71, P531 ARCHER S, 1988, ECOL MONOGR, V58, P111 ARCHER S, 1989, AM NAT, V134, P545 ATJAY GL, 1979, GLOBAL CARBON CYCLE, V13, P129 BROWN JR, 1999, ECOLOGY, V80, P2385 CAO MK, 2001, CLIMATE RES, V17, P183 CAYLOR KK, 2003, J ARID ENVIRON, V54, P281 CHESSON P, 2004, OECOLOGIA, V141, P236 EASTERLING DR, 2000, SCIENCE, V289, P2068 EATON D, UNPUB DAILY RAINFALL EDELSTEINKESHET L, 1988, MATH MODELS BIOL ELLIS J, 1994, BIOSCIENCE, V44, P340 ELLIS JE, 1988, J RANGE MANAGE, V41, P450 FISHER MJ, 1994, NATURE, V371, P236 FRIEDEL MH, 1991, J RANGE MANAGE, V44, P422 FUHLENDORF SD, 2001, APPL VEG SCI, V4, P177 FYNN RWS, 2000, J APPL ECOL, V37, P491 GONZALEZ P, 2001, CLIMATE RES, V17, P217 GRIST J, 1997, J ARID ENVIRON, V35, P195 GROVER HD, 1990, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V17, P305 HIBBARD KA, 2003, ECOL APPL, V13, P911 HIGGINS SI, 2000, J ECOL, V88, P213 JACKSON RB, 2002, NATURE, V418, P623 JELTSCH F, 2000, PLANT ECOL, V161, P161 KARL TR, 1995, NATURE, V377, P217 KNAPP AK, 2002, SCIENCE, V298, P2202 LAUENROTH WK, 1992, ECOL APPL, V2, P397 LAYCOCK WA, 1991, J RANGE MANAGE, V44, P427 LEHOUEROU HN, 1988, J ARID ENVIRON, V15, P1 LIVINGSTONE I, 1991, AMBIO, V20, P80 MANZANO MG, 2000, ANN ARID ZONE, V39, P285 MILCHUNAS DG, 1994, J RANGE MANAGE, V47, P133 NOYMEIR I, 1973, ANNU REV ECOL SYST, V4, P25 NOYMEIR I, 1975, J ECOL, V63, P459 OCONNOR TG, 1991, AM NAT, V137, P753 OCONNOR TG, 1995, OECOLOGIA, V103, P214 PARUELO JM, 1999, ECOSYSTEMS, V2, P64 PICKUP G, 1996, J APPL ECOL, V33, P819 POLAKOW DA, 1999, ECOL MODEL, V121, P79 PRINS HHT, 1993, J ECOL, V81, P305 ROQUES KG, 2001, J APPL ECOL, V38, P268 ROUGHGARDEN J, 1979, THEORY POPULATION GE RYERSON DE, 2001, J VEG SCI, V12, P167 SCHEFFER M, 2001, NATURE, V413, P591 SCHEFFER M, 2003, TRENDS ECOL EVOL, V18, P648 SCHLESINGER WH, 1990, SCIENCE, V247, P1043 SCHOLES RJ, 1990, S AFR J SCI, V86, P350 SCHOLES RJ, 1996, J GEOPHYS RES-ATMOS, V101, P23667 SCHOLES RJ, 1997, ANNU REV ECOL SYST, V28, P517 TROLLOPE WSW, 1996, J GEOPHYS RES-ATMOS, V101, P23531 VANDEKOPPEL J, 1997, TRENDS ECOL EVOL, V12, P352 VANDEKOPPEL J, 2004, AM NAT, V163, P113 VANLANGEVELDE F, 2003, ECOLOGY, V84, P337 WALKER BH, 1981, J ECOL, V69, P473 WEST NE, 1993, J RANGE MANAGE, V46, P2 WESTOBY M, 1989, J ARID ENVIRON, V17, P235 WIEGAND T, 1996, VEGETATIO, V125, P169 WIENS JA, 1984, ECOLOGICAL COMMUNITI, P439 WILLIAMS CA, WATER RESOURCES RES, V41 WILLIAMS CA, 2004, WATER RESOUR RES, V40, P1 WU JG, 2002, ECOL MODEL, V153, P1 ZENG N, 2002, J CLIMATE, V15, P3474 NR 64 TC 0 J9 GLOB CHANGE BIOL BP 777 EP 792 PY 2006 PD MAY VL 12 IS 5 GA 040ZE UT ISI:000237421500003 ER PT J AU Cutter, SL TI Vulnerability to environmental hazards SO PROGRESS IN HUMAN GEOGRAPHY LA English DT Editorial Material RP Cutter, SL, UNIV S CAROLINA,DEPT GEOG,COLUMBIA,SC 29208. CR *NAT RESP TEAM, 1987, NRT1 *ORG AM STAT, 1991, PRIM NAT HAZ MAN INT *UNDRO, 1982, NAT DIS VULN AN ALEXANDER D, 1993, NATURAL DISASTERS AMBRASEYS NN, 1981, DISASTERS, V5, P355 ANDERSON MB, 1991, DISASTERS, V15, P43 BLAIKIE PM, 1987, LAND DEGRADATION SOC BLAIKIE PM, 1994, RISK NATURAL HAZARDS, V1, P1 BOGARD WC, 1989, SOCIOL PERSPECT, V31, P147 BOHLE HG, 1994, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V4, P37 BURKE LM, 1993, GEO INFO SYSTEMS OCT, P44 BURTON I, 1978, ENV HAZARD, V1, P1 CHAMBERS R, 1989, IDS B, V20, P1 CHEN RS, 1994, IND ECOLOGY GLOBAL C, P85 CLAYTON A, 1994, DISASTERS, V18, P89 COBURN A, 1992, EARTHQUAKE PROTECTIO COLTEN CE, 1986, ENV REV, V10, P92 COLTEN CE, 1988, PUBL HISTORIAN, V10, P7 COLTEN CE, 1991, GEOGR REV, V81, P215 COLTEN CE, 1993, ILLINOIS GIS MAN SUM, P48 CORSANEGO A, 1993, NAT HAZARDS, V8, P109 CUNY FC, 1983, DISASTERS DEV CUTTER SL, 1989, PROF GEOGR, V41, P149 CUTTER SL, 1991, URBAN GEOGR, V12, P417 CUTTER SL, 1993, LIVING RISK DEGG M, 1993, GEOGRAPHY, V78, P165 DOW KM, 1992, GEOFORUM, V23, P417 DOW KM, 1995, HUMAN DIMENSIONS Q, V1, P3 DOWNING TE, 1991, ASSESSING SOCIOECONO DOWNING TE, 1991, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V1, P365 DOWNING TE, 1992, 1 U OXF ENV CHANG UN GABOR T, 1980, J HAZARD MATER, V8, P323 GABOR T, 1982, DISASTERS, V6, P215 GASSER J, 1990, AM CITY COUNTY, V105, P81 GILBERT C, 1995, INT J MASS EMERGENCI, V13, P231 HAQUE CE, 1992, DISASTERS, V16, P217 HARLAN M, 1988, EARTHQUAKE VULNERABI HEPNER GF, 1995, J HAZARD MATER, V42, P187 HEWITT K, 1971, RES PUBLICATION U TO, V6 HEWITT K, 1983, INTERPRETATIONS CALA HEWITT K, 1995, INT J MASS EMERGENCI, V13, P317 HEYMAN BN, 1991, DISASTER MANAGEMENT, V4, P3 KATES RW, 1985, CLIMATE IMPACT ASSES, V27, P3 LEWIS J, 1987, LOCAL GOVT STUDI JUL, P75 LEWIS J, 1990, DISASTERS, V14, P241 LIVERMAN DM, 1986, CITIES MAY, P142 LIVERMAN DM, 1990, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V80, P49 LIVERMAN DM, 1990, UNDERSTANDING GLOBAL, V1, P27 LONGHURST R, 1995, DISASTERS, V19, P269 LOWRY JH, 1995, PHOTOGRAMM ENG REM S, V61, P1347 MCMASTER RB, 1987, AUTOCARTO 8 P, P471 MCMASTER RB, 1988, P 3 INT S SPAT DAT H, P143 MITCHELL JK, 1989, GEOGR REV, V79, P391 MITCHELL JK, 1989, GEOGRAPHY AM, P410 PALM R, 1992, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V82, P207 PALM RI, 1992, CALIFORNIA EARTHQUAK PARRISH DA, 1993, ENV MODELING GIS, P348 PIJAWKA KD, 1985, DANGEROUS PROPER SEP, P2 PLATT R, 1991, DISASTERS, V15, P172 QUARANTELLI EL, 1992, URBAN VULNERABILITY SMITH K, 1992, ENV HAZARDS ASSESSIN SOLECKI WD, 1990, THESIS RUTGERS U SOLWAY L, 1994, DISASTER MANAGEMENT, V6, P160 SUSMAN P, 1984, INTERPRETATIONS CALA, P264 SWEARINGEN WD, 1992, GEOGR REV, V82, P401 TAVAKOLI B, 1993, NAT HAZARDS, V7, P155 TIEFENBACHER JP, 1992, THESIS RUTGERS U TIMMERMAN P, 1981, ENV MONOGRAPH, V1, P1 VONBRAUN M, 1993, ENV MODELING GIS, P339 WADGE G, 1993, ENV MODELING GIS, P332 WATTS MJ, 1993, PROG HUM GEOG, V17, P43 WILHITE D, 1987, PLANNING DROUGHT RED YARNAL B, 1994, DISASTERS, V18, P95 NR 73 TC 25 J9 PROG HUM GEOGR BP 529 EP 539 PY 1996 PD DEC VL 20 IS 4 GA WW636 UT ISI:A1996WW63600009 ER PT J AU Warren, WA TI Hierarchy theory in sociology, ecology, and resource management: A conceptual model for natural resource or environmental sociology and socioecological systems SO SOCIETY & NATURAL RESOURCES LA English DT Review C1 Ecosocial Anal LLC, Moscow, ID 83843 USA. RP Warren, WA, Ecosocial Anal LLC, POB 9964, Moscow, ID 83843 USA. AB This article argues that hierarchy theory can be used as a conceptual bridge to facilitate analysis of socioecological systems (SES). An SES model is proposed based on a synthesis of structuration theory in sociology and hierarchy theory in ecology. The model is process rather than component based by relating institutional processes with ecological processes at multiple scales. The model also offers a means to conceptually integrate the divide between micro and macro approaches in the fields of environmental and natural resource (E&NR) sociology. CR *NAT COUNC SCI ENV, 2000, 1 NAT C SCI POL ENV *NAT SCI BOARD, 2000, ENV SCI ENG 21 CENT *NAT SCI FDN, 2000, DEV RES AG LINK BIOG *NSF ADV COMM ENV, 2003, COMPL ENV SYST SYNTH ALBERTI M, 2003, BIOSCIENCE, V53, P1169 ALLEN TFH, 1992, UNIFIED ECOLOGY ANDREWS WH, 1997, SOC NATUR RESOUR, V10, P501 ASKINS RA, 2000, RESTORING N AM BIRDS BENNETT JW, 1976, PERGAMON FRONTIERS A BEUS CE, 1993, ADV HUM ECOL, V2, P93 BIRD EAR, 1987, ENV REV, V11, P255 BODLEY JH, 1994, CULTURAL ANTHR TRIBE BODLEY JH, 1999, CURR ANTHROPOL, V40, P595 BODLEY JH, 2003, POWER SCALE GLOBAL H BOURDIEU P, 1989, READINGS CONT SOCIOL, P323 BOURDIEU P, 1990, SOCIAL THEORY MULTIC, P479 BROMLEY D, 1990, J ENVIRON ECON MANAG, V109, P86 BRUBAKER R, 1985, THEOR SOC, V14, P745 BUSCH L, 2000, ECLIPSE MORALITY SCI BUTTEL FH, 1987, ANNU REV SOCIOL, V13, P465 BUTTEL FH, 1996, RURAL SOCIOL, V61, P56 CARROLL WD, 2002, SO FOREST RESONANCE, P583 COSTANZA R, 1996, ECOSYSTEM MANAGEMENT, P148 CZECH B, 2000, BIOSCIENCE, V50, P593 CZECH B, 2000, WILDLIFE SOC B, V28, P2 CZECH B, 2000, WILDLIFE SOC B, V28, P4 DASGUPTA P, 2000, BIOSCIENCE, V50, P339 DIETZ T, 2003, SCIENCE, V302, P1907 ECKHARDT C, 1998, PNWGTR429 USDA FOR S EHRLICH PR, 1971, SCIENCE, V171, P1212 FIELD DR, 2003, SOC NATUR RESOUR, V16, P349 FIGHT RD, 2000, PNWGTR489 USDA FOR S FISCHER F, 2000, CITIZENS EXPERTS ENV FOSTER D, 2003, BIOSCIENCE, V53, P77 FRIEDLAND R, 1991, NEW I ORG ANAL, P232 GIDDENS A, 1981, ADV SOCIAL THEORY ME, P335 GIDDENS A, 1984, CONSTITUTION SOC OUT GOLDBLATT D, 1996, SOCIAL THEORY ENV GROVE JM, 1997, URBAN ECOSYSTEMS, V1, P259 HALL CAS, 2000, WILDLIFE SOC B, V28, P16 HANNIGAN JA, 1995, ENV SOCIOLOGY SOCIAL HEEMSKERK M, 2003, CONSERV ECOL, V7, P1 HELD D, 1980, INTRO CRITICAL THEOR HOLLING CS, 1996, ECOL APPL, V6, P733 HOLLING CS, 2002, PANARCHY UNDERSTANDI, P395 HOLLING CS, 2002, PANARCHY UNDERSTANDI, P63 HURLEY JM, 2002, SOC NATUR RESOUR, V15, P295 INGRAM P, 2000, ANNU REV SOCIOL, V26, P525 KARR JR, 1994, BIODIVERSITY LANDSCA, P229 KATES RW, 2001, SCIENCE, V292, P641 KEMMIS D, 2001, THIS SOVEREIGN LAND KING AW, 1993, ECOLOGICAL INTEGRITY, P19 KRATZ TK, 2003, BIOSCIENCE, V53, P57 LALIBERTE AS, 2003, BIOSCIENCE, V53, P994 LUBCHENCO J, 1991, ECOLOGY, V72, P371 LUZADIS VA, 2002, SOC NATUR RESOUR, V15, P89 LYOTARD JF, 1984, THEORY HIST LIT, V10 MACHLIS GE, 1997, SOC NATUR RESOUR, V10, P347 MANN M, 1986, SOURCES SOCIAL POWER, V1 MANN M, 1993, SOURCES SOCIAL POWER, V2 MARTIN A, 2001, SOC NATUR RESOUR, V14, P585 MCFARLANE BL, 2000, SOC NATUR RESOUR, V13, P649 MICHAELIDOU M, 2002, SOC NATUR RESOUR, V15, P599 MOOTE A, 2003, WORKSH HELD HART PRA NAVEH Z, 1994, BIODIVERSITY LANDSCA, P187 NAVEH Z, 2000, BIOSCIENCE, V50, P357 NORTON BG, 1996, ECOSYSTEM MANAGEMENT, P424 NYHUS PJ, 2002, SOC NATUR RESOUR, V15, P923 ODUM EP, 1996, ECOSYSTEM MANAGEMENT, P279 ONEILL RV, 1986, MONOGRAPHS POPULATIO, V23 OWEN W, 2002, SRS53 US FOR SERV, P47 PATTEE HH, 1973, HIERARCHY THEORY CHA PETERSON GD, 2000, ECOL ECON, V35, P323 PRITCHARD L, 2002, PANARCHY UNDERSTANDI, P147 RASTETTER EB, 2003, BIOSCIENCE, V53, P68 REDCLIFT M, 1994, SOCIAL THEORY GLOBAL REDCLIFT M, 1994, SOCIAL THEORY GLOBAL, P51 REGIER HA, 1993, ECOLOGICAL INTEGRITY ROSA EA, 1999, SOC NATUR RESOUR, V12, P371 ROSA EA, 2002, SOC NATUR RESOUR, V15, P251 ROSSMAN EJ, 2003, SOC NATUR RESOUR, V16, P268 RUDEL TK, 1999, SOC NATUR RESOUR, V12, P257 SAMSON FB, 1996, ECOSYSTEM MANAGEMENT SCHEFFER M, 2002, PANARCHY UNDERSTANDI, P63 SCOONES I, 1999, ANNU REV ANTHROPOL, V28, P479 SEWELL WH, 1992, AM J SOCIOL, V1, P1 SIMON HA, 1973, HIERARCHY THEORY, P3 SKOGEN K, 2001, RURAL SOCIOL, V66, P203 SKOGEN K, 2003, SOC NATUR RESOUR, V16, P435 SNEDDON CS, 2002, SOC NATUR RESOUR, V15, P663 SNEDDON CS, 2002, SOC NATUR RESOUR, V15, P725 SPAARGAREN G, 1992, SOC NATUR RESOUR, V5, P323 STERN PC, 1993, SCIENCE, V260, P1897 WARREN WA, 1998, THESIS WASHINGTON ST WARREN WA, 2003, COLLABORATION FEDERA WESTLEY F, 2002, PANARCHY UNDERSTANDI, P103 WILSON MA, 1997, SOC NATUR RESOUR, V10, P453 WILY L, 1999, SOC NATUR RESOUR, V12, P49 WOODLEY S, 1993, ECOLOGICAL INTEGRITY YAFFEE SL, 1996, ECOL APPL, V6, P724 ZANETELL BA, 2002, SOC NATUR RESOUR, V15, P805 NR 101 TC 2 J9 SOC NATUR RESOUR BP 447 EP 466 PY 2005 PD MAY-JUN VL 18 IS 5 GA 923BX UT ISI:000228884800004 ER PT J AU Pielke, RA Agrawala, S Bouwer, LM Burton, I Changnon, S Glantz, MH Hooke, WH Klein, RJT Kunkel, K Mileti, D Sarewitz, D Tompkins, EL Stehr, N von Storch, H TI Clarifying the attribution of recent disaster losses. A response to Epstein and McCarthy SO BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY LA English DT Editorial Material C1 Univ Colorado, CIRES, Boulder, CO 80309 USA. OECD, Environm Directorate, Paris, France. Vrije Univ Amsterdam, Inst Environm Studies, Fac Earth & Life Sci, NL-1081 HV Amsterdam, Netherlands. Univ Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada. Univ Illinois, Champaign, IL 61820 USA. NCAR, Environm & Societal Impacts Grp, Boulder, CO USA. Atmospher Policy Program, AMS, Washington, DC USA. Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res, Potsdam, Germany. Illinois State Water Survey, Ctr Atmospher Sci, Champaign, IL 61820 USA. Univ Colorado, Dept Sociol, Boulder, CO 80309 USA. Arizona State Univ, Tempe, AZ USA. Univ E Anglia, Sch Environm Sci, Tyndall Ctr Climate Change Res, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. Zeppelin Univ, Friedrichshafen, Germany. GKSS Forschungszentrum Geesthacht GmbH, Inst Coastal Res, Geesthacht, Germany. RP Pielke, RA, Univ Colorado, CIRES, Boulder, CO 80309 USA. CR *HARV MED SCH, 2004, EXP WARN GLOB WARM L *INT FED RED CROSS, 2004, WORLD DIS REP 2004 ADGER WN, 2003, PROGR DEV STUDIES, V3, P179 ALLEY RB, 2003, SCIENCE, V299, P2005 CHANGNON SA, 1997, B AM METEOROL SOC, V78, P425 CHANGNON SA, 2000, B AM METEOROL SOC, V81, P437 CHANGNON SD, 2003, B AM METEOROL SOC, V84, P1231 EASTERLING DR, 2000, SCIENCE, V289, P2068 EPSTEIN PR, 2004, B AM METEOROL SOC, V85, P1863 GLANTZ MH, 2003, CLIMATE AFFAIRS PRIM HOUGHTON JT, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 KUNKEL KE, 1999, B AM METEOROL SOC, V80, P1077 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 MILETI DS, 1999, DISASTERS DESIGN PIELKE RA, 1998, WEATHER FORECAST 2, V13, P621 PIELKE RA, 2000, J CLIMATE, V13, P3625 RAGHAVAN S, 2003, B AM METEOROL SOC, V84, P635 SAREWITZ D, 2005, NEW REPUBLIC 0106 SMITH B, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P223 TIERNEY K, 2001, FACING UNEXPECTED DI VONSTORCH H, 2005, SPIEGEL 0124 NR 21 TC 2 J9 BULL AMER METEOROL SOC BP 1481 EP 1483 PY 2005 PD OCT VL 86 IS 10 GA 977GD UT ISI:000232790200024 ER PT J AU Wilson, J TI Vulnerability to wind damage in managed landscapes of the coastal Pacific Northwest SO FOREST ECOLOGY AND MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article C1 Univ Maine, Dept Forest Management, Orono, ME 04469 USA. RP Wilson, J, Univ Maine, Dept Forest Management, 5755 Nutting Hall, Orono, ME 04469 USA. AB Managed forested landscapes in the coastal Pacific Northwest follow a pattern of transition from dominance by naturally regenerated second growth to dominance by planted stands. This transition should have dramatic influence on many characteristics of these landscapes and the larger region, including susceptibility to wind damage. In this paper, inventory and spatial information from an example landscape are integrated using the Landscape Management System to produce alternative management scenarios and evaluate the projections using a wind damage vulnerability rating system. Planted Douglas-fir stands tend to develop higher height to diameter ratios in the dominant trees, are thinned more often, and tend to have more exposed windward edges; characteristics which increase susceptibility to wind damage. In this analysis, the increasing vulnerability factors are mostly compensated for by the reduced rotation lengths expected in the plantations. The pattern of transition in managed landscapes generates an associated pattern of vulnerability to wind damage. Homogeneously and heterogeneously aged landscapes have distinct patterns of vulnerability. These differences could be harnessed to enhance the particular goals associated with managing individual ownerships. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. CR AGER AA, 1997, PNWGTR397 USDA FOR S ANDERSEN KF, 1954, FORESTRY OXFORD, V27, P97 BECQUEY J, 1987, REV FORESTIERE FRANC, V39, P323 BOUCHON T, 1987, REV FORESTIERE FRANC, V39, P301 BUSBY JA, 1965, SCOTT FOR, V19, P86 CREMER KW, 1977, AUST FORESTRY, V40, P274 CREMER KW, 1982, NEW ZEAL J FOR SCI, V12, P244 DAY WR, 1950, FORESTRY, V23, P90 DONNELLY DM, 1996, PACIFIC NW COAST VAR EVERHAM EM, 1996, BOT REV, V62, P114 FRASER AI, 1967, FORESTRY COMMISSION, V40 GREENE SE, 1992, J VEG SCI, V3, P697 HENDERSON JA, 1989, 00188 USDA FOR SERV KENWORTHY T, 1998, WASH POST 0202 LEKES V, 2000, FOREST ECOL MANAG, V135, P331 LOHMANDER P, 1987, SCAND J FOR RES, V2, P227 LYNOTT RE, 1966, MONTHLY WEATHER REV, V94, P105 MCCARTER JB, 1996, LANDSCAPE MANAGEMENT MCCARTER JB, 1997, USDA INTERM, V373, P159 MCCARTER JB, 1998, J FOREST, V96, P17 MILLER KF, 1987, FORESTRY, V60, P180 MILLER RE, 1993, WEST J APPL FOR, V8, P5 MILLER RE, 1995, PNW482 USDA FOR SERV MITCHELL SJ, 1995, FOREST CHRON, V71, P446 MITCHELL SJ, 1995, WIND TREES NEUSTEIN SA, 1971, FORESTRY COMMISSION, V45, P42 QUINE CP, 1995, WIND TREES ROLLINSON TJD, 1987, ANN SCI FOREST, V44, P25 RUEL JC, 1995, FOREST CHRON, V71, P434 RUTH RH, 1953, PNW7 USDA FOR SERV SAVILL PS, 1983, FOREST ABSTR, V44, P473 TANG SM, 1997, LANDSCAPE ECOL, V12, P349 TECK R, 1996, J FOREST, V94, P7 VERSFELD DB, 1980, S AFRICAN FOREST J, V112, P15 WILEY KN, 1965, 7 WEY FOR WILSON JS, 1998, FOREST ECOL MANAG, V110, P59 WILSON JS, 1998, J APPL ENTOMOL, V122, P239 WILSON JS, 1998, THESIS U WASHINGTON WILSON JS, 2000, CAN J FOREST RES, V30, P910 ZUMRAWI AA, 1995, EFFECTS SITE TREATME NR 40 TC 0 J9 FOREST ECOL MANAGE BP 341 EP 351 PY 2004 PD APR 5 VL 191 IS 1-3 GA 806TN UT ISI:000220456300026 ER PT J AU Ellis, F TI Agrarian change and rising vulnerability in rural sub-Saharan Africa SO NEW POLITICAL ECONOMY LA English DT Article C1 Univ E Anglia, Sch Dev Studies, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. RP Ellis, F, Univ E Anglia, Sch Dev Studies, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. CR 2005, GUARDIAN 0620 *ETH MIN FIN EC DE, 2002, ETH SUST DEV POV RED *IMF WORLD BANK, 2005, HEAV IND POOR COUNTR *INT FOOD POL RES, 2005, FUT SMALL FARMS P RE *OECD, 2004, 2004 DEV COOP REP OE *WORLD BANK, 1981, ACC DEV SUB SAH AFR BARRETT C, RURAL LIVELIHOODS, P16 BRYCESON D, 1999, REV AFRICAN POLITICA, V26, P171 BRYCESON D, 2000, DISAPPEARING PEASANT BRYCESON D, 2002, WORLD DEV, V30 BRYCESON DF, 1996, WORLD DEV, V24, P97 BRYCESON DF, 1997, RES SERIES AFRICAN S, P3 CHAMBERS R, 1989, IDS B, V20, P1 COOKSEY B, 2005, RURAL LIVELIHOODS PO, P149 DERCON S, 2002, WORLD BANK RES OBSER, V17, P141 DERCON S, 2005, INSURANCE POVERTY UN DERCON S, 2006, P ANN BANK C DEV EC DEVEREUX S, 2002, END FAM 21 CENT C I DEWAAL A, 2003, LANCET, P1234 ELLIS F, 1983, J PEASANT STUD, V10, P214 ELLIS F, 2000, RURAL LIVELIHOODS DI ELLIS F, 2003, WORLD DEV, V31, P1367 ELLIS F, 2004, J DEV STUD, V40, P1 ELLIS, RURAL LIVELIHOODS, P183 ELLIS, 2001, FOOD POLICY, V26, P315 FRANCIS E, 2000, MAKING LIVING CHANGI HYDEN G, 1980, UJAMAA TANZANIA UNDE JAYNE TS, FUTURE SMALL FARMS JAYNE TS, 2003, FOOD POLICY, V28, P253 KRUEGER AO, 1991, POLITICAL EC AGR PRI, V3 NETTING R, 1993, SMALLHOLDERS HOUSHOL REARDON T, 1997, WORLD DEV, V25, P735 REARDON T, 2003, AM J AGR ECON, V85, P1140 SEN AK, 1981, POVERTY FAMINES ESSA, V1, P1 WEATHERSPOON DD, 2003, DEV POLICY REV, V21, P333 NR 35 TC 0 J9 NEW POLIT ECON BP 387 EP 397 PY 2006 PD SEP VL 11 IS 3 GA 090LC UT ISI:000240951800005 ER PT J AU Wright, EL Erickson, JD TI Incorporating catastrophes into integrated assessment: Science, impacts, and adaptation SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Review C1 US EPA, Natl Risk Management Res Lab, Res Triangle Pk, NC 27711 USA. Univ Vermont, Sch Nat Resources, Aiken Ctr 344, Burlington, VT 05405 USA. RP Wright, EL, US EPA, Natl Risk Management Res Lab, Mail Drop E-305-02, Res Triangle Pk, NC 27711 USA. AB Incorporating potential catastrophic consequences into integrated assessment models of climate change has been a top priority of policymakers and modelers alike. We review the current state of scientific understanding regarding three frequently mentioned geophysical catastrophes, with a view toward their implications for integrated assessment modeling. This review finds inadequacies in widespread model assumptions regarding the nature of catastrophes themselves and climate change impacts more generally. The possibility of greatly postponed consequences from near- and medium-term actions suggests that standard discounting practices are inappropriate for the analysis of climate catastrophe. Careful consideration of paleoclimate and geophysical modeling evidence regarding the possibility of changes in ocean circulation suggests a reframing of the source of climate change damages in economic models, placing changes in climate predictability, rather than gradual changes in mean values, at the focus of economic damage assessments. The implications of decreases in predictability for the modeling of adaptation are further discussed. CR *NAT RES COUNC, 2001, ABR CLIM CHANG INT S ALLEY RB, 1997, GEOLOGY, V25, P483 ALLEY RB, 2000, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V97, P1331 ANDERSON DE, 1997, PROG PHYS GEOG, V21, P230 AZAR C, 1998, ENVIRON RESOUR ECON, V11, P301 BENSON L, 1997, NATURE, V388, P263 BENTLEY CR, 1997, SCIENCE, V275, P1077 BIGG GR, 1996, OCEANS CLIMATE BOYLE E, 1995, PHILOS T ROY SOC B, V348, P243 BOYLE EA, 2000, QUATERNARY SCI REV, V19, P255 BROECKER WS, 1985, NATURE, V315, P21 BROECKER WS, 1988, PALAEOCEANOGRAPHY, V3, P1 BROECKER WS, 1989, NATURE, V341, P318 BROECKER WS, 1990, PALEOCEANOGRAPHY, V5, P469 BRUCE JP, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995 BRUCKNER T, 1999, ENVIRON MODEL ASSESS, V4, P217 CANE MA, 1998, SCIENCE, V282, P59 CHAO HP, 1995, RISK ANAL, V15, P69 CHAPMAN D, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V47, P225 CROPPER ML, 1976, J ENVIRON ECON MANAG, V3, P1 CROSSON PR, 1993, AGR DIMENSIONS GLOBA, P117 DANSGAARD W, 1982, SCIENCE, V218, P1273 DANSGAARD W, 1989, NATURE, V339, P532 DEVERNAL A, 1996, NATURE, V381, P774 DUPLESSY JC, 1992, NATURE, V358, P485 FAIRBANKS RG, 1989, NATURE, V342, P637 FANKHAUSER S, 1994, ENERGY J, V15, P157 FANKHAUSER S, 1995, VALUING CLIMATE CHAN FISHER AC, 1997, J ENVIRON ECON MANAG, V34, P207 GJERDE J, 1999, RESOUR ENERGY ECON, V21, P289 HARVEY LDD, 1995, J GEOPHYS RES-ATMOS, V100, P2905 HEAL G, 1997, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V37, P335 HIGGINS PAT, 2001, IN PRESS DYNAMICS CL HILLAIREMARCEL C, 2001, NATURE, V410, P1073 HOUGHTON JT, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995 HOUGHTON JT, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 HUGHEN KA, 1996, NATURE, V380, P51 KAISER HM, 1993, AGR DIMENSIONS GLOBA, P136 KAISER HM, 1993, AM J AGR ECON, V75, P387 KANE SM, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P75 KELLER K, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V47, P17 KELLY DL, 1999, J ECON DYN CONTROL, V23, P491 KOLSTAD C, 1998, EC POLICY ISSUES CLI, P263 KVENVOLDEN KA, 1999, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V96, P3420 LATIF M, 2000, J CLIMATE, V13, P1809 LEHMAN SJ, 1992, NATURE, V356, P757 LEMPERT RJ, 1994, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V26, P351 LIND R, 1998, EC POLICY ISSUES CLI, P59 LOWELL TV, 1995, SCIENCE, V269, P1541 MACIVER DC, 1998, ADAPTATION CLIMATE V MANABE S, 1993, NATURE, V364, P215 MANABE S, 1994, J CLIMATE, V7, P5 MANABE S, 1995, NATURE, V378, P165 MANABE S, 2000, QUATERNARY SCI REV, V19, P285 MANNE A, 1995, ENERG POLICY, V23, P17 MANNE AS, 1995, HEDGING STRATEGIES G MAROTZKE J, 2000, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V97, P1347 MASTRANDREA MD, 2001, IN PRESS CLIMATE POL MAYEWSKI PA, 1993, SCIENCE, V261, P195 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 MCCAVE IN, 1995, NATURE, V374, P149 MENDELSOHN R, 1999, IMPACT CLIMATE CHANG MERCER JH, 1978, NATURE, V271, P321 METZ B, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 MUSCHELER R, 2000, NATURE, V408, P567 NORDHAUS WD, 1992, SCIENCE, V258, P1315 NORDHAUS WD, 1994, AM SCI, V82, P45 NORDHAUS WD, 1994, MANAEGING GLOBAL COM NORDHAUS WD, 1998, EC POLICY ISSUES CLI, P1 NORDHAUS WD, 2000, WARMING WORLDS EC MO OPPENHEIMER M, 1998, NATURE, V393, P325 OVERPECK J, 2000, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V97, P1335 PECK SC, 1992, ENERGY J, V13, P55 PECK SC, 1994, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V28, P289 PIERREHUMBERT RT, 2000, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V97, P1355 PORTNEY PR, 1998, EC POLICY ISSUES CLI, P59 RAHMSTORF S, 1994, NATURE, V372, P82 RAHMSTORF S, 1995, NATURE, V378, P145 RAHMSTORF S, 1999, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V43, P353 REILLY JM, 1998, EC POLICY ISSUES CLI, P243 REILLY JM, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P253 REVELLE RR, 1983, CHANGING CLIMATE, P441 ROUGHGARDEN T, 1999, ENERG POLICY, V27, P415 SARNTHEIN M, 1994, PALEOCEANOGRAPHY, V9, P209 SCHNEIDER SH, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P203 SMITH JB, 1989, EPA230589050 OFF POL STOCKER TF, 1997, NATURE, V388, P862 STOCKER TF, 2000, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V97, P1362 STOMMEL H, 1961, TELLUS, V13, P224 STREETPERROTT FA, 1990, NATURE, V343, P607 TAYLOR KC, 1993, NATURE, V361, P432 THOMPSON LG, 1998, SCIENCE, V282, P1858 TOL RSJ, 1995, ENVIRON RESOUR ECON, V5, P353 TOMAN MA, 1998, ENVIRON RESOUR ECON, V11, P603 VAUGHAN DG, 2002, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V52, P65 VEUM T, 1992, NATURE, V356, P783 WARREN BA, 1983, J MAR RES, V41, P327 WATSON RT, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, V1, P1 WEERTMAN J, 1974, J GLACIOL, V13, P3 WOOD RA, 1999, NATURE, V399, P572 WRIGHT EL, 2000, THESIS RENSSELAER PO YOHE GW, 1999, IMPACT CLIMATE CHANG, P178 YOHE GW, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P103 YOHE GW, 1998, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V38, P447 ZAHN R, 1992, NATURE, V356, P744 NR 105 TC 1 J9 CLIMATIC CHANGE BP 265 EP 286 PY 2003 PD APR VL 57 IS 3 GA 657WJ UT ISI:000181689100002 ER PT J AU Collin, ML Melloul, AJ TI Assessing groundwater vulnerability to pollution to promote sustainable urban and rural development SO JOURNAL OF CLEANER PRODUCTION LA English DT Article C1 Waster Commiss, Hydrol Serv, IL-91360 Jerusalem, Israel. RP Melloul, AJ, Waster Commiss, Hydrol Serv, POB 36118, IL-91360 Jerusalem, Israel. AB Groundwater resource management should be integrated with regional land-use planning. The objectives of such planning should respond to regional and long-term design needs, which can maximize human-life quality, achieve a balance between ecological and engineering approaches to land-use alteration, and lead to sustainable groundwater resources. Regional plans should be designed in harmony with natural amenities, restrictions of the environment, and water needs so as to provide adequate rural amenities to urban areas and adequate urban amenities to rural areas. Maximum efficiency of these remediation measures can be attained in urban areas only if hydrological barriers which aim to preserve fresh water resources from pollution are simultaneously emplaced with greenbelts which not only aim to promote ground vegetation and soil stability, but also reduce the input of potential pollutants. Similarly, in rural areas abstraction of fresh groundwater should also be paired with aquifer recharge. From this study it can be stated that only integrated hydrological, environmental, and land-use measures could offset the present malaise of inharmonious land-use, water resources, and socio-economic planning with balanced design needs, in order to achieve integrated urban/rural land-use for sustainable groundwater resources planning. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. CR 1995, DEV HYDROLOGICAL SIT, P199 1996, ISR ENV B, V19, P4 *US EPA, 1985, WA EPA SER, P163 ALBINET M, 1970, B BRGM, V4, P13 ALLER LT, 1985, EPA600285018 ANDERSEN LJ, 1989, ENVIRON GEOL WAT SCI, V13, P39 APPLEYARD S, 1995, HYDROGEOL J, V3, P65 BACHMAT Y, 1990, 690 ISR HYDR SERV, P20 BARBER C, 1996, HYDROGEOL J, V4, P6 BAUM EJ, 1994, GROUNDWATER CONTAMIN, P547 BEAR J, 1979, HYDRAULICS GROUNDWAT, P56 DAGAN G, 1984, ECOL STUD, V47, P271 DAN DH, 1976, 159 ISR MIN AGR DILLON P, 1998, P GROUNDWATER SUSTA, P39 GOLDENBERG LC, 1992, J HYDROL, V138, P53 GOLDENBERG LC, 1993, TRANSPORT POROUS MED, V13, P221 GVIRTZMAN H, 1986, J HYDROL, V87, P267 HOWARD K, 1996, HYDROGEOL J, V4, P64 KANAREK A, 1990, GROUNDWATER RECHARGE KANFI Y, 1989, POTENTIAL OIL POLLUT KANFI Y, 1995, PUMPING MONITORING W LERNER DN, 1997, GROUNDWATER URBAN EN, P41 LYON TL, 1952, NATURE PROPERTIES SO MCHARG IL, 1969, DESIGN NATURE MELLOUL A, 1991, BIOSPHERE J, V20, P12 MELLOUL AJ, 1994, IAHS PUB, V220, P95 MELLOUL AJ, 1994, ISRAEL J EARTH SCI, V43, P105 MELLOUL AJ, 1998, J ENVIRON MANAGE, V54, P131 MELLOUL AJ, 1999, WATER IRRIGATION J, V391, P30 MELLOUL AJ, 2000, HYDROLOG SCI J, V45, P147 MERCHANT JW, 1994, PHOTOGRAMM ENG REM S, V60, P1117 MEYBECK M, 1990, GLOBAL FRESH WATER Q MITCHELL DJ, 1989, J BEHAVIORAL DECISIO, V2, P25 MUSZKAT L, 1989, P 4 IT C ISR SOC EC, P471 NAVEHZ, 1997, ISR ENV B, V20, P21 ORNI E, 1996, ISRAEL PROGRAM SCI T PARFIT W, 1993, NATL GEOGR NOV PRETTY JN, 1996, OUR PLANET, V8, P19 ROBERTS D, 1992, NATL GEOGR, V182, P46 ROBINS N, 1994, HYDROGEOLOGIE, V3, P35 RONEN D, 1986, WATER RESOUR RES, V22, P1217 RUNDQUIST DC, 1991, STATEWIDE GROUNDWATE, P51 SCHULTZ GA, 1995, P BOULD S IASH, P31 SECUNDA S, 1909, COMPOSITE DRASTIC LA, P35 SOTORNIKOVA R, 1987, P INT C VULN SOIL GR, P471 TIMOTHY E, 1997, PROBLEMS PROCESSES M, V1, P577 TOLMACH Y, 1979, HYDROGEOLOGICAL ATLA, P70 VANDENBRINK C, 1993, C GROUNDW QUAL MAN T, P2 VANHOUTE E, 1998, P GROUNDWATER SUSTAI, P93 ZOLLER U, 1998, WATER RES, V32, P1779 NR 50 TC 0 J9 J CLEAN PROD BP 727 EP 736 PY 2003 VL 11 IS 7 GA 676HF UT ISI:000182744700003 ER PT J AU Grunzweig, JM Sparrow, SD Yakir, D Chapin, FS TI Impact of agricultural land-use change on carbon storage in boreal Alaska SO GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY LA English DT Article C1 Weizmann Inst Sci, Dept Environm Sci & Energy Res, IL-76100 Rehovot, Israel. Univ Alaska, Inst Arctic Biol, Fairbanks, AK 99775 USA. Univ Alaska, Agr & Forestry Expt Stn, Fairbanks, AK 99775 USA. RP Grunzweig, JM, Weizmann Inst Sci, Dept Environm Sci & Energy Res, IL-76100 Rehovot, Israel. AB Climate warming is most pronounced at high latitudes, which could result in the intensification of the extensively cultivated areas in the boreal zone and could further enhance rates of forest clearing in the coming decades. Using paired forest-field sampling and a chronosequence approach, we investigated the effect of conversion of boreal forest to agriculture on carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) dynamics in interior Alaska. Chronosequences showed large soil C losses during the first two decades following deforestation, with mean C stocks in agricultural soils being 44% or 8.3 kg m(-2) lower than C stocks in original forest soils. This suggests that soil C losses from land-use change in the boreal region may be greater than those in other biomes. Analyses of changes in stable C isotopes and in quality of soil organic matter showed that organic C was lost from soils by combustion of cleared forest material, decomposition of organic matter and possibly erosion. Chronosequences indicated an increase in C storage during later decades after forest clearing, with 60-year-old grassland showing net ecosystem C gain of 2.1 kg m(-2) over the original forest. This increase in C stock resulted probably from a combination of large C inputs from belowground biomass and low C losses due to a small original forest soil C stock and low tillage frequency. Reductions in soil N stocks caused by land-use change were smaller than reductions in C stocks (34% or 0.31 kg m(-2)), resulting in lower C/N ratios in field compared with forest mineral soils, despite the occasional incorporation of high-C forest-floor material into field soils. Carbon mineralization per unit of mineralized N was considerably higher in forests than in fields, which could indicate that decomposition rates are more sensitive in forest soils than in field soils to inorganic N addition (e.g. by increased N deposition from the atmosphere). If forest conversion to agriculture becomes more widespread in the boreal region, the resulting C losses (51% or 11.2 kg m(-2) at the ecosystem level in this study) will induce a positive feedback to climatic warming and additional land-use change. However, by selecting relatively C-poor soils and by implementing management practices that preserve C, losses of C from soils can be reduced. CR *FAO, 2001, 140 FAO *SOIL SURV STAFF, 1998, KEYS SOIL TAX ALAYEV EB, 1990, EARTH TRANSFORMED HU, P543 ANDERSON JM, 1992, ADV ECOL RES, V22, P163 BALESDENT J, 1993, ECOLOGY, V74, P1713 BALESDENT J, 1996, MASS SPECTROMETRY SO, P83 BARBER VA, 2000, NATURE, V405, P668 BOUTTON TW, 1996, MASS SPECTROMETRY SO, P47 CHAPIN FS, 1993, NATURE, V361, P150 CLARK A, 1986, WEIGHT VOLUME PHYS P COHEN SJ, 1997, MACKENZIE BASIN IMPA CREPIN J, 1993, SOIL SAMPLING METHOD, P5 DAVIDSON EA, 1993, BIOGEOCHEMISTRY, V20, P161 DIXON RK, 1994, SCIENCE, V263, P185 ELLERT BH, 1995, CAN J SOIL SCI, V75, P529 FEARNSIDE PM, 1998, FOREST ECOL MANAG, V108, P1 FISHER MJ, 1994, NATURE, V371, P236 FITZSIMMONS M, 2002, CAN J FOREST RES, V32, P843 FLANAGAN LB, 1999, TELLUS B, V51, P367 FOLLETT RF, 1997, SOIL SCI SOC AM J, V61, P1068 GALLOWAY JN, 1995, GLOBAL BIOGEOCHEM CY, V9, P235 GOULDEN ML, 1998, SCIENCE, V279, P214 GOWER ST, 1997, J GEOPHYS RES-ATMOS, V102, P29029 GRUNZWEIG JM, 2003, BIOGEOCHEMISTRY, V64, P271 GRUNZWEIG JM, 2003, GLOBAL CHANGE BIOL, V9, P791 GUO LB, 2002, GLOBAL CHANGE BIOL, V8, P345 HARDEN JW, 1997, J GEOPHYS RES-ATMOS, V102, P28805 HOBSON KA, 2002, CONSERV BIOL, V16, P1530 HOUGHTON RA, 1995, GLOBAL CHANGE BIOL, V1, P275 HOUGHTON RA, 1995, SOILS GLOBAL CHANGE, P45 HOUGHTON RA, 1999, SCIENCE, V285, P574 HOUGHTON RA, 1999, TELLUS B, V51, P298 JENNY H, 1980, SOIL RESOURCES ORIGI KAISER K, 2001, EUR J SOIL SCI, V52, P585 KEENEY DR, 1982, METHODS SOIL ANAL, V2, P643 KELLER M, 1993, NATURE, V365, P244 KNIGHT CW, 1993, SOIL SCI SOC AM J, V57, P1138 KOCHY M, 2001, J ECOL, V89, P807 LEAVITT SW, 1996, RADIOCARBON, V38, P231 MACLEAN R, 1999, BIOGEOCHEMISTRY, V47, P239 MAKIPAA R, 1999, CAN J FOREST RES, V29, P1490 MANNING GH, 1984, BXX250 PAC FOR RES C MAXWELL B, 1997, GLOBAL CHANGE ARCTIC, P21 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 MCGUIRE AD, 1995, J BIOGEOGR, V22, P785 MELILLO JM, 1989, ECOLOGY ARABLE LAND, P53 MURTY D, 2002, GLOBAL CHANGE BIOL, V8, P105 NADELHOFFER KJ, 1988, SOIL SCI SOC AM J, V52, P1633 NASHOLM T, 1998, NATURE, V392, P914 NEILL C, 1997, ECOL APPL, V7, P1216 NEILL C, 2000, GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANG, P197 OECHEL WC, 2000, NATURE, V406, P978 PARRY ML, 1992, ADV ECOL RES, V22, P63 PARTON WJ, 1987, SOIL SCI SOC AM J, V51, P1173 PAUL EA, 1997, SOIL SCI SOC AM J, V61, P1058 PAUL EA, 1999, STANDARD SOIL METHOD, P291 PAUSTIAN KH, 2000, BIOGEOCHEMISTRY, V48, P147 PIIRAINEN S, 2002, PLANT SOIL, V239, P301 POST WM, 1982, NATURE, V298, P156 POST WM, 2000, GLOB CHANGE BIOL, V6, P317 RAASTAD IA, 1999, WATER AIR SOIL POLL, V114, P199 RAPALEE G, 1998, GLOBAL BIOGEOCHEM CY, V12, P687 ROBERTSON GP, 1999, STANDARD SOIL METHOD, P258 ROTH JE, 1991, STANDARD CHARACTERIS SCHIMEL DS, 1995, GLOBAL CHANGE BIOL, V1, P77 SERREZE MC, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V46, P159 SHARRATT BS, 1998, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V89, P269 SHELDRICK BH, 1993, SOIL SAMPLING METHOD, P499 SOKAL RR, 1995, BIOMETRY SOLLINS P, 1999, STANDARD SOIL METHOD, P89 SOLOMON AM, 1997, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V84, P137 SPARROW SD, 1988, BIOL FERT SOILS, V6, P33 STARFIELD AM, 1996, ECOL APPL, V6, P842 TORN MS, 1997, NATURE, V389, P170 TORN MS, 2002, GLOBAL CHANGE BIOL, V8, P941 TOWNSEND AR, 1995, ECOLOGY, V76, P721 VANCE ED, 1987, SOIL BIOL BIOCHEM, V19, P703 VANCLEVE K, 1983, BIOSCIENCE, V33, P39 VANCLEVE K, 1990, CAN J FOREST RES, V20, P1530 VANCLEVE K, 1993, CAN J FOREST RES, V23, P941 VELDKAMP E, 1994, SOIL SCI SOC AM J, V58, P175 VIERECK LA, 1983, CAN J FOREST RES, V13, P703 VIERECK LA, 1986, FOREST ECOSYSTEMS AL, P22 VIERECK LA, 1993, CAN J FOREST RES, V23, P889 WALKER BH, 1999, TERRESTRIAL BIOSPHER, P1 WATSON RT, 1998, REGIONAL IMPACTS CLI, V1, P1 WELLER G, 1999, PREPARING CHANGING C WHITTAKER RH, 1975, COMMUNITIES ECOSYSTE WIEDER RK, 1982, ECOLOGY, V63, P1636 YARIE J, 1983, CAN J FOREST RES, V13, P767 ZIMOV SA, 1999, SCIENCE, V284, P1973 NR 91 TC 0 J9 GLOB CHANGE BIOL BP 452 EP 472 PY 2004 PD APR VL 10 IS 4 GA 808DC UT ISI:000220548800006 ER PT J AU GORE, C TI ENTITLEMENT RELATIONS AND UNRULY SOCIAL PRACTICES - A COMMENT ON THE WORK OF AMARTYA SEN SO JOURNAL OF DEVELOPMENT STUDIES LA English DT Article C1 INST DEV STUDIES,SUSSEX,ENGLAND. RP GORE, C, UNCTAD,DIV LEAST DEV COUNTRIES,GENEVA,SWITZERLAND. AB This article examines the conceptual basis and analytical deployment of Sen's entitlement analysis in ethics and economics, focusing on the rules of entitlement. Sen specifies the rules of entitlement in different ways in his work, ignores how legal rules work in practice and downplays the way in which socially enforced moral rules constrain and enable entitlement. The appropriateness of Sen's approach for the analysis of hunger and famine and for the philosophical arguments which Sen makes are assessed, and an alternative view of the rules of entitlement is suggested. This draws in particular on the literature on the moral economy of provisioning. CR APPADURAI A, 1984, J ASIAN STUD, V43, P481 ARNOLD D, 1979, PAST PRESENT, V84, P111 ARNOLD D, 1988, FAMINE SOCIAL CRISIS CLOUGH P, 1985, REV AFRICAN POLITICA, V34, P16 COBETT J, 1988, WORLD DEV, V16, P1099 DAVIS WG, 1973, SOCIAL RELATIONS PHI DEWAAL A, 1989, FAMINE KILLS DARFUR DEWAAL A, 1990, DEV CHANGE, V21, P469 DEWAAL A, 1991, DEV CHANGE, V22, P597 DREZE J, 1989, HUNGER PUBLIC ACTION DWORKIN R, 1977, TAKING RIGHTS SERIOU FINAN TJ, 1988, AM ETHNOL, V15, P694 FORTMAN BD, 1990, 87 I SOC STUD WORK P GIDDENS A, 1976, NEW RULES SOCIOLOGIC GIDDENS A, 1979, CENTRAL PROBLEMS SOC GIDDENS A, 1984, CONSTITUTION SOC GORE CG, 1978, THESIS PENNSYLVANIA GREENOUGH PR, 1980, MOD ASIAN STUD, V14, P205 GRENHOUGH PR, 1983, J ASIAN STUD, V42, P831 HARRIS O, 1981, MARRIAGE MARKET WOME HOLMES DR, 1989, CULTURAL DISENCHANTM MINTZ S, 1961, S PATT LAND UT OTH P, P54 MINTZ S, 1964, CAPITAL SAVINGS CRED MOORE SF, 1983, LAW PROCESS ANTHR AP NICKEL JW, 1987, MAKING SENSE HUMAN R, P27 OSMANI SR, 1991, DEV CHANGE, V22, P587 POPKIN SL, 1979, RATIONAL PEASANT POL SCHAFFER B, 1975, DEV CHANGE, V6 SCHAFFER B, 1975, DEV CHANGE, V6, P13 SCOTT JC, 1976, MORAL EC PEASANT SCOTT JC, 1985, WEAPONS WEAK EVERYDA SEN AK, 1976, EC POLITICAL WEEKLY, V11 SEN AK, 1977, CAMBRIDGE J ECON, V1, P33 SEN AK, 1979, J PHILOS, V74, P463 SEN AK, 1980, TANNER LECTURES HUMA, V1 SEN AK, 1981, ETHICS F PROBLEMS AP, P43 SEN AK, 1981, PHILOS PUBLIC AFF, V11, P3 SEN AK, 1981, Q J ECON, V95, P433 SEN AK, 1982, CONT PHILOS, V2, P343 SEN AK, 1982, MIDWEST STUD PHILOS, V7, P207 SEN AK, 1983, ECON J, V93, P745 SEN AK, 1984, RESOURCES VALUES DEV SEN AK, 1985, COMMODITIES CAPABILI SEN AK, 1985, EQUALITY DISCRIMINAT SEN AK, 1985, J PHILOS, V82, P169 SEN AK, 1985, TRADE DEV, V6, P195 SEN AK, 1986, LLOYDS BANK REV, P1 SEN AK, 1987, ETHICS EC SEN AK, 1987, HUNGER ENTITLEMENTS SEN AK, 1987, STNADARD LIVING SEN AK, 1988, ECON PHILOS, V4, P57 SEN AK, 1988, EUR ECON REV, V32, P269 SEN AK, 1989, WORLD DEV, V17, P769 SEN AK, 1990, PHILOS PUBLIC AFF, V19, P111 SEN AK, 1990, POLITICAL EC HUNGER, V1, CH2 SEN AK, 1990, UNPUB AUG TANC LECT SEN AK, 1980, WORLD DEV, V8, P613 SEN AK, 1981, POVERTY FAMINES ESSA, V1, P1 SWIFT J, 1989, IDS B, V20, P8 THOMPSON EP, 1971, PAST PRESENT, V50, P76 THOMPSON EP, 1975, WHIGS HUNTERS ORIGIN THOMPSON EP, 1991, CUSTOMS COMMON, CH5 TILLY L, 1971, J INTERDISCIPLINARY, V2, P23 TILLY LA, 1983, HUNGER HIST, P135 TRAGER L, 1981, ETHNOLOGY, V20, P133 WATTS MJ, 1983, SILENT VIOLENCE FOOD WATTS MJ, 1984, LIFE DROUGHT, CH6 WOLDEMESKEL G, 1990, WORLD DEV, V18, P491 NR 68 TC 18 J9 J DEVELOP STUD BP 429 EP 460 PY 1993 PD APR VL 29 IS 3 GA KZ193 UT ISI:A1993KZ19300002 ER PT J AU Naess, LO Bang, G Eriksen, S Vevatne, J TI Institutional adaptation to climate change: Flood responses at the municipal level in Norway SO GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS LA English DT Article C1 CICERO, NO-0318 Oslo, Norway. RP Naess, LO, CICERO, POB 1129 Blindern, NO-0318 Oslo, Norway. AB The article examines the role institutions play in climate adaptation in Norway. Using examples from two municipalities in the context of institutional responses to floods, we find, first, that the institutional framework for flood management in Norway gives weak incentives for proactive local flood management. Second, when strong local political and economic interests coincide with national level willingness to pay and provide support, measures are often carried out rapidly at the expense of weaker environmental interests. Third, we find that new perspectives on flood management are more apparent at the national than the municipal level, as new perspectives are filtered by local power structures. The findings have important implications for vulnerability and adaptation to climate change in terms of policy options and the local level as the optimal level for adaptation. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *DSB, 2003, HVA LAERT VI FLOMM 1 *GOV NORW, 1995, 37 GOV NORW *GOV NORW, 1996, 42 GOV NORW *HEINZ CTR, 2002, HUM LINKS COAST DIS *MIN ENV MIN LOC G, 1997, T597 MIN ENV MIN LOC *NIVA, 1996, FLOMM OSTL VAR 1995 *NOU, 1996, TILT MOT FLOM *NVE, 1999, RETN AR SIKR FLOM OM AALL C, 2003, 32003 W NORW RES I ADGER WN, 2000, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V90, P738 ADGER WN, 2000, PROG HUM GEOG, V24, P347 BACHRACH P, 1962, AM POLIT SCI REV, V56, P947 BAKKER K, 1999, 3 SIRCH U OXF ENV CH BERKES F, 1998, LINKING SOCIAL ECOLO, V1, P1 BERKES F, 2002, DRAMA COMMONS BJORNAES T, 2001, LOKALE MILJO BAEREKR BLAIKIE PM, 1994, RISK NATURAL HAZARDS, V1, P1 BRAENNE J, 1995, BEFARING RADGIVNING BROWN JD, 2002, T I BRIT GEOGR, V27, P412 BURTON I, 2002, CLIM POLICY, V2, P145 CASH DW, 2000, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V10, P109 CUTTER SL, 1993, LIVING RISK CUTTER SL, 2003, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V93, P1 DAHL RA, 1961, WHO GOVERNS DEMOCRAC EIKENAES O, 2000, FLOMMEN KOMMER EIKENAES O, 2000, LEVE MED FLAUM FLAA P, 1985, INNFORING ORGANISASJ GLANTZ M, 1989, FORECASTING ANALOGY HINDAR K, 1996, EFFEKTER FLOMMEN 199 LISO KR, 2003, BUILD RES INF, V31, P200 LIVERMAN DM, 2002, CLIMATE RES, V21, P199 LUKES S, 1974, POWER RADICAL VIEW LUNDQUIST D, 1996, FLOMMEN 1995 GLOMM L MILLER KA, 1997, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V35, P157 MORROW BH, 1999, DISASTERS, V24, P1 NAESS LO, IN PRESS I ADAPTATIO NYE JS, 1987, INT ORGAN, V41, P371 OBRIEN KL, 2004, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V64, P193 OLSSON P, 2001, ECOSYSTEMS, V4, P85 OYGARDEN L, 1996, FLOMMEN 1995 SKADER QUARANTELLI EL, 1987, INT J MASS EMERGENCI, V5, P7 RATTSO J, 2003, FISCAL DECENTRALIZAT SKURDAL J, 2000, GLOMMA LAAGEN RIVER SMIT B, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, CH18 TOL RSJ, 2003, RISK ANAL, V23, P575 UNDERDAL A, 1998, EUR J INT RELAT, V4, P5 VAYDA AP, 1999, HUM ECOL, V27, P167 WILBANKS TJ, 1999, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V43, P601 WILBANKS TJ, 2002, INTEGRATED ASSESSMEN, V3, P100 YIN R, 1994, CASE STUDY RES DESIG YOHE GW, 2002, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V12, P25 YOUNG O, 1998, 9 IHDP NR 52 TC 6 J9 GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANGE BP 125 EP 138 PY 2005 PD JUL VL 15 IS 2 GA 931VR UT ISI:000229514100006 ER PT J AU Satterfield, TA Mertz, CK Slovic, P TI Discrimination, vulnerability, and justice in the face of risk SO RISK ANALYSIS LA English DT Article C1 Univ British Columbia, Fac Grad Studies, Inst Resources Environm & Sustainabil, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z3, Canada. Dec Res, Eugene, OR USA. RP Satterfield, TA, Univ British Columbia, Fac Grad Studies, Inst Resources Environm & Sustainabil, 2206 E Mall,Rm 472, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z3, Canada. AB Recent research finds that perceived risk is closely associated with race and gender. In surveys of the American public, a subset of white males stand out for their uniformly low perceptions of environmental health risks, while most nonwhite and nonmale respondents reveal higher perceived risk. Such findings have been attributed to the advantageous position of white males in American social life. This article explores the linked possibility that this demographic pattern is driven not simply by the social advantages or disadvantages embodied in race or gender, but by the subjective experience of vulnerability and by sociopolitical evaluations pertaining to environmental injustice. Indices of environmental (in)justice and social vulnerability were developed as part of a U.S. National Risk Survey (n = 1,192) in order to examine their effect on perceived risk. It was found that those who regarded themselves as vulnerable and supported belief statements consistent with the environmental justice thesis offered higher risk ratings across a range of hazards. Multivariate analysis indicates that our measures of vulnerability and environmental (in)justice predict perceived risk but do not account for all of the effects of race and gender. The article closes with a discussion of the implications of these findings for further work on vulnerability and risk, risk communication, and risk management practices generally. CR *AG TOX SUBST DIS, 1995, CAS STUD ENV MED LEA BECK U, 1992, RISK SOC NEW MODERNI BECK U, 1999, WORLD RISK SOC BELLINGER D, 1987, NEW ENGL J MED, V316, P1037 BORD RJ, 1997, SOCIAL SCI Q, V78, P831 BULLARD RD, 1990, DUMPING DIXIE RACE C CAPEK SM, 1993, SOC PROBL, V40, P5 DAVIDSON D, 1997, ENVIRON BEHAV, V28, P302 DEVELLIS RF, 1991, SCALE DEV THEORY APP FINUCANE ML, 2000, HEALTH RISK SOC, V2, P159 FLYNN J, 1994, RISK ANAL, V14, P1101 GRAHAM JD, 1999, RISK ANAL, V19, P171 GREENBERG MR, 1993, RISK ISSUES HLTH SAF, V235, P235 GREENBERG MR, 1995, RISK ANAL, V15, P503 GUSTAFSON PE, 1998, RISK ANAL, V18, P805 GUTTELING JM, 1993, SEX ROLES, V28, P433 JOHNSON BB, 2002, RISK ANAL, V22, P725 JONES EE, 1984, SOCIAL STIGMA PSYCHO JONES RE, 1998, SOC NATUR RESOUR, V11, P209 KALOF L, 2002, RACE GENDER CLASS, V9, P1 KRAUS N, 1992, RISK ANAL, V12, P215 LESTER J, 2001, ENV JUSTICE US MYTHS MOHAI P, 1998, PUBLIC OPIN QUART, V62, P475 NEEDLEMAN HL, 1990, NEW ENGL J MED, V322, P83 SATTERFIELD TA, 2001, RISK MEDIA STIGMA UN, P69 SEXTON K, 1993, TOXICOL IND HEALTH, V9, P679 SLOVIC P, 1979, ENVIRONMENT, V21, P14 SLOVIC P, 1979, ENVIRONMENT, V21, P36 SLOVIC P, 1987, SCIENCE, V236, P280 SLOVIC P, 1992, SOCIAL THEORIES RISK, P117 SLOVIC P, 1999, RISK ANAL, V19, P689 SROLE L, 1956, AM SOCIOL REV, V21, P709 STERN PC, 1993, ENVIRON BEHAV, V25, P322 SZASZ A, 1994, ECOPOPULISM TOXIC WA, V1 TAYLOR DE, 2000, AM BEHAV SCI, V43, P508 VAUGHAN E, 1995, RISK ANAL, V15, P169 WATTS MJ, 1993, PROG HUM GEOG, V17, P43 ZIMMERMAN R, 1993, RISK ANAL, V13, P649 NR 38 TC 0 J9 RISK ANAL BP 115 EP 129 PY 2004 PD FEB VL 24 IS 1 GA 779PH UT ISI:000189308900010 ER PT J AU Baethgen, WE TI Vulnerability of the agricultural sector of Latin America to climate change SO CLIMATE RESEARCH LA English DT Article C1 Int Fertilizer Dev Ctr Latin Amer, Montevideo, Uruguay. RP Baethgen, WE, Int Fertilizer Dev Ctr Latin Amer, Javier Barrios Amorin 870,Piso 3, Montevideo, Uruguay. AB The vulnerability of the agricultural sector in any region to future possible climate-change scenarios is determined to a great extent by the vulnerability of the sector to current climatic, economic and policy scenarios. Agricultural systems which are currently subject to extreme climatic interannual variability (drought, flood, storms, etc.) are likely to become even more vulnerable under the most commonly expected scenarios of climate change (i.e. increased temperatures, increased rainfall variability). Similarly, agricultural systems which are currently subject to drastic changes in economic and policy scenarios are also prone to become more vulnerable under expected climate-change conditions. The agricultural sector of Latin America has been subject to important variations in economical conditions and policies. These conditions have affected the structure of agricultural production, and resulted in a large reduction of the number of small farmers, who have migrated to poor metropolitan areas. Even for larger, commercial farmers, unstable and often inconsistent agricultural policies have increased the vulnerability of the sector. Additionally, large areas of Latin America are already affected by current interannual climatic variability related to the length of rainy seasons and the occurrence of extreme events (droughts, floods, etc.). The few studies conducted in the region to specifically assess the impact of climate change on agriculture have revealed expected reductions and increased variability in crop productivity. Similar results should be expected in the vast regions devoted to livestock production, since the systems are based on a fragile balance of nutrients, available water, stocking rates and pasture species. The characteristics of the current situation described in this article demonstrate the vulnerability of Latin American agriculture to climate change. Preparing the agricultural sector to mitigate the potential negative effects of climate change will require strong and consistent efforts in both the scientific and policy sectors of the region. CR *CEPAL, 1993, STAT YB LAT AM CAR *FAO, 1992, STAT FOOD AGR *IBSNAT, 1989, DEC SUPP SYST AGR TR *IPCC, 1990, CLIM CHANG IPCC SCI *WORLD BANK, 1986, WORLD DEV REP 1986 ACOCK B, 1985, DIRECT EFFECTS INCRE BAETHGEN WE, 1994, ACAPULCO, V9, P300 BAETHGEN WE, 1994, IMPLICATIONS CLIMATE BAETHGEN WE, 1995, ASA SPEC PUBL, V59, P207 CURE JD, 1985, DIRECT EFFECTS INCRE HANSEN J, 1983, MON WEATHER REV, V111, P609 HANSEN J, 1988, J GEOPHYS RES, V93, P9341 LIVERMAN DM, 1994, IMPLICATIONS CLIMATE MANABE S, 1987, J ATMOS SCI, V44, P1601 PARRY ML, 1988, IMPACT CLIMATIC VARI, V1 ROSENZWEIG C, 1994, IMPLICATIONS CLIMATE SALA OE, 1994, IMPLICATIONS CLIMATE SIQUEIRA OJ, 1994, IMPLICATIONS CLIMATE WIGGINS S, 1991, DEV WORLD AGR, P34 WILSON CA, 1987, J GEOPHYS RES-ATMOSP, V92, P13315 NR 20 TC 2 J9 CLIMATE RES BP 1 EP 7 PY 1997 PD DEC 29 VL 9 IS 1-2 GA ZD200 UT ISI:000072661400002 ER PT J AU Parasuraman, S Unnikrishnan, PV TI Disaster response in India: An overview SO INDIAN JOURNAL OF SOCIAL WORK LA English DT Article AB 'Act of God' or 'Act of Man', a mind boggling spectrum of disasters wreak havoc in the Indian subcontinent. Disasters are a shared reality spanning individuals, villages, blocks, districts, states, nations and even regions, and have to be responded to with a multi-pronged approach. About 211 million people are affected by 'natural' disasters every year. According,to the World Disasters Report, two-thirds of the people affected are from countries with low human development index (International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent, 2001). Experts note that the poorest are becoming more exposed to disaster risks. Political insensitivity, increasing poverty, climatic change and globalisation are the major factors that amplifies the vulnerability and impacts of disasters. Disasters set back the development process by decades. CR *EARTHSC, 1998, INT DISPL PEOPL GLOB *INT FED RED CROSS, 1998, WORLD DIS REP 1998 *INT FED RED CROSS, 1999, WORLD DIS REP 1999 *INT FED RED CROSS, 2001, WORLD DIS REP 2001 FERNANDES W, 1997, REHABILITATION LAW I HAQ M, 1997, HUMAN DEV S ASIA PARASURAMAN S, 2000, INDIA DISASTERS REPO NR 7 TC 0 J9 INDIAN J SOC WORK BP 151 EP 172 PY 2002 PD APR VL 63 IS 2 GA 770MK UT ISI:000188734400002 ER PT J AU Fath, BD Beek, MB TI Elucidating public perceptions of environmental behavior: a case study of Lake Lanier SO ENVIRONMENTAL MODELLING & SOFTWARE LA English DT Article C1 Towson State Univ, Dept Biol, Towson, MD 21252 USA. Univ Georgia, Warnell Sch Forest Resources, Athens, GA 30602 USA. RP Fath, BD, Towson State Univ, Dept Biol, Towson, MD 21252 USA. AB Participation of stakeholders in stewardship of the aquatic environment, including participation front members of the general public, has become much more widespread than was the case a decade or so ago. With this shift. front a former predominantly technocratic stance to something of a democratic stance on the style of management, it becomes important to elucidate public perceptions of environmental behavior. The paper examines this issue: from a rather specific perspective. where the role of time is significant; with a specific purpose in mind-for defining illustrative stakeholder aspirations for the future. whose plausibility is to Eke assessed against a computational model of lake behavior; and for a specific case study. Lake Lanier in the Chattahoochee watershed of Georgia, USA. Perturbations and variation in the behavior of the aquatic environment span many time frames from the very short-term response associated with storms, infrastructure failure, transient pollution events. and so on. to the much longer-term. for instance, the biogeochemical 'ageing' of a lake over manly decades and more. Our analysis is devoted to data front a survey of stakeholder imagination and perceptions of how the future state of Lake Lanier may evolve in the relatively short term (2-5 years) and in the long term, defined as 25+ years (the span of a generation). Overall, stakeholders are pessimistic and fear that things will be worse in the longer term. Guided largely by thinking on the perspectives of the social solidarities of Cultural Theory. extraction and analysis of sub-samples of the survey responses show that this outlook over the two frames of time is persistent, irrespective of what are, in principle, rather different 'global' attitudes towards the man-environment relationship. Of interest inter alia to the foresight generating procedure,. by which the 'reachability' of stakeholder-derived futures for the lake is to be assessed using a computational model of the relevant parts of the science base, is the question of whether the same small number of priorities for further research on lake behavior is robust in the face of the rich variety of aspirations for the future inevitable in a democratic community of stakeholders. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *LIMN TECH INC, 1998, DEV LINK WAT WAT QUA *OECD, 2002, HDB BIOD VAL GUID PO BECK MB, 2002, ENV FORESIGHT MODELS BECK MB, 2002, ENV FORESIGHT MODELS, P207 BECK MB, 2002, INTEGRATED ASSESSMEN, V3, P299 BECK MB, 2004, IN PRESS ENV MODELLI COWIE GM, 2004, IN PRESS ENV MODELLI DAKE K, 1991, J CROSS CULT PSYCHOL, V22, P61 DAKE K, 1992, J SOC ISSUES, V48, P21 DARIER E, 1999, J ENV POLICY PLANNIN, V1, P103 DEMARCHI B, 1998, ULYSSES VOYAGE ULYSS DOUGLAS M, 1982, RISK CULTURE ESSAY S DOUGLAS M, 2003, DEADALUS, V132, P98 GRENDSTAD G, 2000, RISK ANAL, V20, P27 HATCHER KJ, 1994, DIAGNOSTIC FEASIBILI HOFSTETTER P, 1998, PERSPECTIVES LIFE CY HOFSTETTER P, 2000, INT J LCA, V5, P161 HORNBERGER GM, 1980, WATER RES, V14, P29 JANSSEN MA, 1998, ECOL ECON, V26, P43 JANSSEN MA, 1999, MANAGING REILIENCE L KASEMIR B, HANDBOOK KATES RW, 2001, SCIENCE, V292, P641 KORFMACHER KS, 2001, ENVIRON MANAGE, V27, P161 KUNDELL J, 1998, DIAGNOSTIC FEASIBILI KUNDELL J, 1998, DIAGNOSTIC FEASIBLIT MAGUIRE LA, 2003, J WATER RES PL-ASCE, V129, P261 MARRIS C, 1996, 9607 CSERGE GEC MARRIS C, 1998, RISK ANAL, V18, P635 MOSTERT E, 2003, WATER POLICY, V5, P179 OSIDELE OO, 2001, THESIS U GEORGIA ATH OSIDELE OO, 2004, ECOL MODEL, V173, P129 OSIDELE OO, 2004, IN PRESS INTEGRATED PAHLWOSTL C, 2000, INTEGR ASSESS, V1, P267 PAHLWOSTL C, 2004, IN PRESS ENV MODELLI PALMER CGS, 1996, RISK ANAL, V16, P717 PEREIRA AG, 1999, INT J ENVIRON POLLUT, V11, P266 PEREIRA AG, 2001, VISIONS ADVENTURES F PFEIFER S, 2001, MANAGEMENT, V6, P89 PLEAU M, 2004, IN PRESS ENV MODELLI PRICE MF, 1997, GLOBAL ECOL BIOGEOGR, V6, P77 RAYNER S, 1992, SOCIAL THEORIES RISK REES W, 1996, ENVIRON IMPACT ASSES, V16, P223 SCHLUMPF C, 2001, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V51, P199 SPEAR RC, 1980, WATER RES, V14, P43 THOMPSON M, 1990, CULTURAL THEORY THOMPSON M, 1997, ENVIRON MODEL ASSESS, V2, P139 VANASSELT MBA, 1996, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V6, P121 VANROLLEGHEM PA, 2004, IN PRESS ENV MODELLI WEITZMAN ML, 1998, J ENVIRON ECON MANAG, V36, P201 WILDAVSKY A, 1990, DAEDALUS, V119, P41 YOUNG PC, 1978, P SIMSIG SIM C AUSTR, P24 NR 51 TC 4 J9 ENVIRON MODELL SOFTW BP 485 EP 498 PY 2005 PD APR VL 20 IS 4 GA 888UH UT ISI:000226399200009 ER PT J AU Turvey, R TI Vulnerability assessment of developing countries: The case of small-island developing states SO DEVELOPMENT POLICY REVIEW LA English DT Article C1 Nipissing Univ, Dept Geog & Geol, Fac Arts & Sci, N Bay, ON P1B 8L7, Canada. RP Turvey, R, Nipissing Univ, Dept Geog & Geol, Fac Arts & Sci, 100 Coll Dr,POB 5002, N Bay, ON P1B 8L7, Canada. AB This article puts forward a spatial perspective in framing the methodology for vulnerability assessment (VA) of developing countries, with special reference to small-island developing states (SIDS). Geographic vulnerability from a developing-world perspective is defined by the country's susceptibility to physical and human pressures, risks and hazards in temporal and spatial contexts. In constructing the composite vulnerability index (CVI), four core indicators are selected as sub-indices. The study confirms the vulnerability of SIDS based on four dimensions, namely, coastal index (G1), peripherality index (G2), urbanisation indicator (G3) and vulnerability to natural disasters (G4), and advocates consideration of place vulnerability and temporal distinctions when assessing the vulnerability of SIDS in particular. CR *COMM SECR, 1997, FUT SMALL STAT OV VU *EARTHW, 1999, ISL DIR *ECOSOC, 1999, REP DEV POL *ESCAP, 1995, STAT ENV REP AS PAC *UN ECOSOC COMM DE, 1999, ECOSOC S, V13 *UN ENV PROGR, 1999, PROBL SMALL ISL ENV *UN, 1994, GLOB C SUST DEV SMAL *UN, 1995, STAT POP *UN, 1997, ESCAP REP IND SUST D *UN, 1997, IND SUST DEV ISD PRO *UN, 1999, IND SUST DEV ISD PRO *UNCSD, 1998, REP SECR GEN DEV VUL *UNCTAD, 1994, HDB INT TRAD DEV STA *UNCTAD, 1995, HDB INT TRAD DEV STA *UNCTAD, 1998, LEAST DEV COUNTR 199 *UNCTAD, 1999, HDB INT TRAD DEV STA *UNCTAD, 2003, TRAD ENV REV *UNCTAD, 2004, SPEC TREATM SMALL IS *UNEP, 1994, EARTHW ISL DIR *WORLD BANK, 1999, WORLD DEV REP 1999 2 *WORLD FOOD PROGR, 1996, WFP VULN MAPP GUID *WORLD RES I, 1995, ENV IND SYST APPR ME BRIGUGLIO L, 1995, WORLD DEV, V23, P1615 BROOKFIELD HC, 1990, 13 MAB UNESCO CUTTER SL, 1996, PROG HUM GEOG, V20, P529 DAHL A, 1991, ISLAND DIRECTORY DOW KM, 1992, GEOFORUM, V23, P417 DOWNING TE, 1996, NATO ASI SERIES, V37 HESS A, 1990, SUSTAINABLE DEV ENV HEWITT K, 1971, RES PUBLICATION U TO, V6 KALY U, 1999, 275 SOPAC KAY R, 1993, VULNERABILITY ASSESS KNOX P, 2004, HUMAN GEOGRAPHY PLAC MCCLEAN RC, 1980, 13 MAB UNESCO NEWITT K, 1997, REGIONS RISK GEOGRAP NUNN P, 1994, OEANIC ISLANDS NURSE LA, 1998, REGIONAL IMPACTS CLI PERNETTA JC, 1992, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V2, P19 PERNETTA JC, 1992, OCEAN COAST MANAGE, V18, P113 ROBSON C, 1993, REAL WORLD RES RESOU TURNER I, 1996, APPL MATH MODEL, V20, P2 VELASQUEZ GT, 1999, CITIES ENV NEW APPRO WATSON RT, 1998, REGIONAL IMPACTS CLI, V1, P1 WATTS MJ, 1993, PROG HUM GEOG, V17, P43 WILKINSON CR, 1994, GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANG WISNER B, 1993, WORLD PAIN HUNGER GE NR 46 TC 0 J9 DEV POLICY REV BP 243 EP 264 PY 2007 PD MAR VL 25 IS 2 GA 137DQ UT ISI:000244273600005 ER PT J AU GARDNER, PD CORTNER, HJ WIDAMAN, K TI THE RISK PERCEPTIONS AND POLICY RESPONSE TOWARD WILDLAND FIRE HAZARDS BY URBAN HOME-OWNERS SO LANDSCAPE AND URBAN PLANNING LA English DT Article C1 UNIV ARIZONA,SCH RENEWABLE NAT RESOURCES,TUCSON,AZ 85721. UNIV CALIF RIVERSIDE,DEPT PSYCHOL,RIVERSIDE,CA 92521. RP GARDNER, PD, ROBERT HOTALING & ASSOCIATES,POB 304,HASLETT,MI 48840. CR *CA DEP FOR, 1980, FIR SAF GUID RES DEV *CA STAT, 1981, REC RED RISK WILDL F BAKER EJ, 1977, LAND USE MANAGEMENT BRIDGES J, 1983, THESIS U CALIFORNIA BURTON I, 1964, NAT RESOUR J, V3, P412 BURTON I, 1978, ENV HAZARD, V1, P1 CORTNER HJ, 1984, J FOREST, V82, P359 GARDNER PD, 1984, STUDY IMPACTS SEVERE HEWITT K, 1971, HAZARDOUSNESS PLACE HOUTS RH, 1971, WILDLAND FIRE PLANNI HULBERT J, 1972, AM FOR, V78, P24 KATES R, 1962, DEP GEOGRAPHY RES PA, V78 MEIER RL, 1979, PSW35 USDA FOR SERV MILETI RA, 1975, NATURAL HAZARD WARNI PETAK WJ, 1982, NATURAL HAZARD RISK RUMMEL RJ, 1970, APPLIED FACTOR ANAL WALSH BW, 1985, J FOR, V83, P397 WHITE GF, 1975, ASSESSMENT RES NATUR, V1, P1 NR 18 TC 6 J9 LANDSCAPE URBAN PLAN BP 163 EP 172 PY 1987 PD JUL VL 14 IS 2 GA J7754 UT ISI:A1987J775400007 ER PT J AU Darwish, T Atallah, T El Moujabber, M Khatib, N TI Salinity evolution and crop response to secondary soil salinity in two agro-climatic zones in Lebanon SO AGRICULTURAL WATER MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article C1 Natl Council Sci Res, Natl Ctr Remote Sensing, Beirut, Lebanon. Lebanese Univ, Fac Agr Sci, Kashk, Lebanon. Holy Spirit Univ, Beirut, Lebanon. RP Darwish, T, Natl Council Sci Res, Natl Ctr Remote Sensing, Beirut, Lebanon. AB This paper reviews the human impact on land degradation through the integrated effect of fertilization and irrigation on secondary salinization for the different cropping patterns and agroclimatic zones of Lebanon. Agricultural operations in the semiarid northern areas of Lebanon are characterized by intensive open field and low tunnel production, Soil degradation has occurred because of the combined effect of mismanaged crop rotation, poor fertilization and irrigation policies. Monoculture and other agricultural practices caused salt accumulation in the soil (9.0 ds/m). which was then deserted after several years of exploitation. Under and Mediterranean climate. these practices increased the vulnerability of an already fragile ecosystem. Because of water shortage, farmers relied on drip irrigation despite higher investment cost, although, the deterioration of soil quality was associated with the use of drip irrigation. The monitoring of soil quality indicated a Self-recovery after several years of fallowing or a switch to a barley-baled rotation. Instead of enhancing water use efficiency and properly managing the fertigation system, a replacement of drip by sprinklers is practiced. This is an indication that the introduction of modern irrigation systems is not sufficient. an improvement of agricultural practices and an upgrading of farmer's, skills are required. Along the subhumid coastal strip, the area of greenhouses has expanded to 50(X) ha. It is (lie most intensive cropping system in the country with a manure input reaching 60 t ha(-1) added every 2 years and fertilizer input exceeding 180(1 kg hit I of compound soluble and low-solubility fertilizers per season. Consequently, secondary soil salinity has reached 15-20 dS/m. A six-fold increase of soil salinity inside the greenhouses in comparison with the soil outside them was observed. A 5-year monitoring of the status of groundwater and soil on the Lebanese coast showed that the deterioration of soil quality is also linked to the mismanagement of fertilizer input and irrigation with low quality waters. Several zones are irrigated with well water which was subjected to seawater intrusion. In the southern coastal region, water salinity fluctuated around 3 dS/m. In regularly sampled wells, the chlorine content explained only 12% of the variation in total salinity of irrigation water (ECw). ECw explained 34% of soil salinity (ECe). Indeed, the level of ECw cannot justify the extent and seasonal fluctuation of ECe, which showed a peak of 50 dS/m. Replacing drip by sprinklers is not the proper solution in an area with severe shortage in fresh water. Instead, improving the management of water and nutrients inputs and increasing their use efficiency is a necessary step to conserve the limited natural resources in the country. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. CR 1995, W FERTILIZER HDB *FAO, 2000, UTFLEB016 FAO ABROL IP, 1988, FAO SOIL B, V39 ATALLAH T, 2000, CAH AGR, V9, P135 ATALLAH T, 2000, LEB SCI J, V1, P27 ATALLAH T, 2002, WATER BALANCE FERTIG, P41 AYERS RS, 1985, 29 FAO UN BARYOSEF B, 1999, ADV AGRON, V65, P1 DARWISH T, 1995, IMPLEMENTATION PERSP, P207 DARWISH T, 2002, P T 17 WORLD C SOIL DARWISH T, 2003, NUTR CYCL AGROECOSYS, V67, P1 EDMUNDS WM, 1998, ISOTOPE TECHNIQUES S, P503 ELKHATIB N, 1998, P INT S AR REG SOIL, P136 ELMOUJABBER M, 2002, ACTA HORTIC, V573, P195 HAMZE M, 1991, P EXP CONS FERT CHEM, P253 JOHNSTON A, 1997, P REG WORKSH INT POT, P11 KAFKAFI U, 1994, ISRAEL J PLANT SCI, V42, P301 KAHLOWN MA, 2003, AGR WATER MANAGE, V62, P127 KARAM F, 1998, ACTA HORTIC, V458, P89 LAMOUROUX M, 1968, B SERV CARTOGR GEOL, V20, P277 LEVY GJ, 1999, J ENVIRON QUAL, V28, P1658 NIMAH M, 1992, P NAT SEM WAT RES LE PAPADOPOULOS I, 1999, PLANT NUTR MANAGEMEN, P3 QADIR M, 2003, SCI TOTAL ENVIRON, V223, P1 RADER LF, 1943, SOIL SCI, V55, P201 RICHARDS LA, 1969, AGR HDB USDA, V60 RYAN J, 1996, SOIL PLANT ANAL MANU SALAME SJ, 1989, AGDPLEB86005 FAO SHAMMAS A, 1973, LEB506 IAEA SHAMMAS A, 1973, SERIE SCI MAGON AGR, V52 SOLH M, 1987, LEB SCI B, V3, P5 TARCHITZKY J, 1997, P REG WORKSH INT POT, P78 TINGWU L, 2003, WATER RES MANAGE, V6, P395 VERHEYE W, 1968, PEDOLOGIE, V18, P253 NR 34 TC 2 J9 AGR WATER MANAGE BP 152 EP 164 PY 2005 PD SEP 15 VL 78 IS 1-2 GA 966QV UT ISI:000232036800013 ER PT J AU Prudham, S TI Poisoning the well: neoliberalism and the contamination of municipal water in Walkerton, Ontario SO GEOFORUM LA English DT Article C1 Univ Toronto, Program Planning, Dept Geog, Toronto, ON M5S 3G3, Canada. Univ Toronto, Inst Environm Studies, Toronto, ON M5S 3G3, Canada. RP Prudham, S, Univ Toronto, Program Planning, Dept Geog, 100 St George St,Room 5028,Sidney Smith Hall, Toronto, ON M5S 3G3, Canada. AB In May of 2000, thousands of residents of the town of Walkerton, Ontario became ill from drinking municipal water contaminated by Eschcrichia coli and Campylobacter jejuni bacteria. Seven people died, while many suffered debilitating injuries. A highly unusual and risk prone local hydrological regime, coupled with manure spreading on farms near municipal wells, and lax oversight by municipal water utility officials, were quickly blamed by Ontario government figures, including then premier Mike Hart-is. However, the scandal surrounding Walkerton's tragedy and a subsequent public inquiry into the incident also implicated neoliberal reforms of environmental governance introduced by Harris's government subsequent to its election in 1995. This paper examines the Walkerton incident as an important example of a "normal accident" of neoliberalism, one that can be expected from neoliberal environmental regulatory reforms arising from systematic irresponsibility in environmental governance. This irresponsibility is promulgated by an overarching hostility to any regulatory interference with free markets, as well as specific regulatory gaps that produce environmental risks. The paper also serves as a case study of the extent to which neoliberalism is constituted by environmental governance reform, and conversely, how environmental governance reform is reconfigured as part of the emergent neoliberal mode of social regulation. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *COMM ENV COOP, 2002, TAK STOCK 1999 N AM *MIN ASS CAN, 2003, FACTS FIG 2002 *ONT MIN AGR FOOD, 2001, LIV POULTR STAT *STAT CAN, 2001, NUMB CATTL FARMS CLA, P1050 ADKIN LE, 1998, POLITICS SUSTAINABLE ALTVATER E, 1993, FUTURE MARKET ESSAY BEAULIEU MS, 2001, INTENSIVE LIVESTOCK BECK U, 1992, RISK SOC NEW MODERNI BECK U, 1999, WROLD RISK SOC BOYD W, 2001, TECHNOL CULT, V42, P631 BRENNER N, 1999, THEOR SOC, V28, P39 BRENNER N, 2002, ANTIPODE, V34, P349 BRIDGE G, 2000, ANTIPODE, V32, P10 BRIDGE G, 2000, GEOFORUM, V31, P237 CASTREE N, 1995, ANTIPODE, V27, P12 COLVILLE VR, 1982, CAN J EARTH SCI, V19, P962 COWELL DW, 1980, CAN J EARTH SCI, V17, P520 COWELL DW, 1983, J HYDROL, V61, P163 DAVIS M, 1998, ECOLOGY FEAR LOS ANG DAVIS M, 2001, LATE VICTORIAN HOLOC DOWIE M, 1995, LOSING GROUND AM ENV DREW D, 1999, KARST HYDROGEOLOGY H DRYZEK JS, 1997, POLITICS EARTH ENV D DRYZEK JS, 2000, DELIBERATIVE DEMOCRA FORD D, 1989, KARST GEOMORPHOLOGY GIBSONGRAHM JK, 1996, END CAPITALISM WE KN GIDDENS A, 1994, LEFT RIGHT FUTURE RA GOODMAN D, 1987, FARMING BIOTECHNOLOG GOODMAN D, 1991, REFASHIONING NATURE HARRISON K, 1996, PASSING BUCK FEDERAL HARRISON K, 2000, MANAGING ENV UNION I, P49 HARVEY D, 1989, GEOGR ANN B, V71, P3 HARVEY D, 1996, JUSTICE NATURE GEOGR HARVEY D, 2000, SPACES HOPE HESSING M, 1997, CANADIAN NATURAL RES JAMIESON RL, 1997, ANN REPORT OMBUDSMAN JESSOP B, 1990, NEW LEFT REV, P81 JESSOP B, 1994, POSTFORDISM READER, P251 KEIL R, 2002, ANTIPODE, V34, P578 KRAJNC A, 2000, CAN PUBLIC POL, V26, P111 LACLAU E, 1985, HEGEMONY SOCIALIST S MACLACHLAN I, 2001, KILL CHILL RESTRUCTU MILLER G, 2000, CHANGING PERSPECTIVE MILLER G, 2000, PROTECTION ONTARIOS OCONNOR DR, 2002, REPORT WALKERTON INQ OCONNOR J, 1988, CAPITALISM NATURE SO, V1, P11 OCONNOR J, 1998, ANTURAL CAUSES ESSAY PECK J, 1995, ENVIRON PLANN A, V27, P15 PECK J, 2001, PROG HUM GEOG, V25, P445 PECK J, 2002, ANTIPODE, V34, P380 PECK JA, 1992, GEOFORUM, V23, P347 PELLING M, 2001, SOCIAL NATURE THEORY, P170 PERROW C, 1999, NORMAL ACCIDENTS LIV POLANYI K, 1944, GREAT TRANSFORMATION REES J, 1998, NATURAL RESOURCES FO, V22, P95 SMITH N, 1984, UNEVEN DEV NATURE CA TICKELL A, 1995, ECON SOC, V24, P357 VIG NJ, 1984, ENV POLICY 1980S REA WATSON CN, 2001, FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT WATTS MJ, 1983, SILENT VIOLENCE FOOD WHITE GF, 1975, ASSESSMENT RES NATUR, V1, P1 WINSON A, 1993, INTIMATE COMMODITY F WORTHINGTON SRH, 2001, KARST HYDROGEOLOGY I NR 63 TC 0 J9 GEOFORUM BP 343 EP 359 PY 2004 PD MAY VL 35 IS 3 GA 820HJ UT ISI:000221377900007 ER PT J AU Rindorf, A Lewy, P TI Warm, windy winters drive cod north and homing of spawners keeps them there SO JOURNAL OF APPLIED ECOLOGY LA English DT Article C1 Danish Inst Fisheries REs, DK-2920 Charlottenlund, Denmark. RP Rindorf, A, Danish Inst Fisheries REs, DK-2920 Charlottenlund, Denmark. AB 1. Climatic and anthropogenic effects often interact leading to unexpected results. For example, climate may lead to a change in the spatial distribution of a fish stock and thereby its vulnerability to exploitation. The North Sea cod stock is currently under pressure from both environmental change and human exploitation. This stock has experienced a series of poor recruitments since the late 1990s and, concomitant with the decrease in abundance, the distribution of cod has changed. While it has been suggested that the change in distribution can be linked to increasing temperatures and fishing pressure, there is little evidence for this hypothesis. 2. Using winter and summer survey catches, we investigated whether a directional shift in the distribution of cod has taken place over the years 1983-2003. We then examined whether the change could be linked to climatic conditions, fishing mortality, stock size or limited directional movement of cod. Using the derived models, we investigated whether fishing has increased the sensitivity of the cod population to climate-induced distribution changes. 3. A series of winters characterized by high temperatures and southerly winds during the egg and larval phases of cod led to a northward shift in the distribution of juvenile North Sea cod the following year. A concomitant northern shift of mature fish around the time of spawning was linked directly to a tendency for northerly distributed juveniles to remain northerly throughout their life. This shift of the spawners further augmented that of the new recruits. 4. Although fishing mortality on a North Sea scale was not directly correlated with the displacement of any of the age groups, fishing has severely decreased the number of fish in older age groups. This increased the sensitivity of the distribution of the cod stock to climatic changes. 5. Synthesis and applications. The centre of gravity of North Sea cod has moved north as a result of the effect of a series of warm, windy winters on the distribution of recently settled cod. The shift was followed by a northwards shift in the distribution of older age groups. Unless a series of cold and calm years combined with a reduced mortality in the southern areas allows a southern spawning population to rebuild, the cod stock is unlikely to return to its previous area of distribution. Furthermore, protecting adult cod mainly in northern areas is unlikely to result in improved recruitment to the southern North Sea. CR 2004, PREL M EX COMM N SEA 2004, REPORT COMMISSION EU *ICES, 2005, COMM M 2005 ACFM 07 BEAUGRAND G, 2003, NATURE, V426, P661 BEDFORD BC, 1966, COMM M 1966G 9 INT C BEGG GA, 2002, MAR ECOL-PROG SER, V229, P245 BRANDER K, 2000, OCEANOL ACTA, V23, P485 BRANDER KM, 1994, ICES J MAR SCI, V51, P71 CLARK DS, 1991, CAN J ZOOL, V69, P1302 COOK RM, 1999, J NW ATLANTIC FISHER, V25, P91 CUSHING DH, 1976, ADV MAR BIOL, V14, P1 DAAN N, 1978, RAPPORTS PROCES VERB, V172, P39 DAAN N, 1990, NETH J SEA RES, V26, P343 HULME PE, 2005, J APPL ECOL, V42, P784 HUTCHINSON WF, 2001, MAR ECOL-PROG SER, V223, P251 IVERSEN SA, 1984, FLODEVIGEN RAPP, V1, P49 JENNINGS S, 2001, MARINE FISHERIES ECO KING D, 2005, J APPL ECOL, V42, P779 MACCALL AD, 1990, DYNAMIC GEOGRAPHY MA MACKENZIE BR, 2000, LIMNOL OCEANOGR, V45, P1 MACKENZIE BR, 2004, ECOLOGY, V85, P784 MYERS RA, 1989, COMM M 1989D 15 INT OBRIEN CM, 2000, NATURE, V404, P142 PERRY AL, 2005, SCIENCE, V308, P1912 PERRY RI, 1994, CAN J FISH AQUAT SCI, V51, P589 POLOCZANSKA ES, 2004, ICES J MAR SCI, V61, P788 PORTNER HO, 2001, CONT SHELF RES, V21, P1975 PRANDLE D, 1984, PHILOS T ROY SOC A, V310, P407 ROBICHAUD D, 2001, CAN J FISH AQUAT SCI, V58, P2325 RUZZANTE DE, 1996, CAN J FISH AQUAT SCI, V53, P2695 RUZZANTE DE, 2001, CONSERV GENET, V2, P257 SUNDBY S, 1994, ICES MAR SCI S, V198, P393 SWAIN DP, 1995, MAR ECOL-PROG SER, V116, P11 SWAIN DP, 1999, FISH OCEANOGR, V8, P1 TAGGART CT, 1997, NAFO SCI COUNC STUD, V29, P51 TURRELL WR, 1992, ICES J MAR SCI, V49, P107 WATSON A, 1977, J CONSEIL INT EXPLOR, V37, P310 NR 37 TC 1 J9 J APPL ECOL BP 445 EP 453 PY 2006 PD JUN VL 43 IS 3 GA 042GT UT ISI:000237516600007 ER PT J AU YARNAL, B TI AGRICULTURAL DECOLLECTIVIZATION AND VULNERABILITY TO ENVIRONMENTAL-CHANGE - A BULGARIAN CASE-STUDY SO GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS LA English DT Article RP YARNAL, B, PENN STATE UNIV,CTR EARTH SYST SCI,302 WALKER BLDG,UNIVERSITY PK,PA 16802. AB Is the transformation from Communism to a more market-based society making Bulgarians - and particularly farmers more vulnerable to environmental change? Intensive, open-ended interviews suggest that government policies, new privatization laws and the nation's economic crisis are decreasing farmers' flexibility and removing social safety nets. Yet generalizations are difficult because implementation of the decollectivization process is different at each cooperative farm, thus creating varying levels of vulnerability. Easing the crisis is the tradition of family-based, small-plot gardening, which appears to ensure sufficient food for most Bulgarians. CR 1989, GREEN BOOK 1991, BULGARIA CRISIS T MA, V2 1992, GLOBAL ENV CHANGE UN 1992, STATISTICAL REFERENC 1993, 168 HOURS BBN, V3, P5 BARTOS M, 1987, SCOPE, V32, P319 BEGG RB, 1993, 2ND S IMP POL EC RES BROOKS K, 1991, J ECON PERSPECT, V5, P149 BROWN JF, 1970, BULGARIA COMMUNIST R CARTER FW, 1993, ENV PROBLEMS E EUROP DEBARDELEBEN J, 1991, BREATH FREE E EUROPE DOWNING TE, 1991, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V1, P365 FRENCH HF, 1990, GREEN REVOLUTIONS EN GREEN F, 1989, RESTRUCTING UK EC HABERMAS J, 1975, LEGITIMATION CRISIS JACOBSON, 1991, FRAMEWORK RES HUMAN KOLKO J, 1988, RESTRUCTURING WORLD LIVERMAN DM, 1990, UNDERSTANDING GLOBAL, V1, P27 MCINTYRE RJ, 1988, BULGARI POLITICS EC MORREN G, 1983, INTERPRETATIONS CALA, P284 OCONNOR JF, 1973, FISCAL CRISIS STATE OCONNOR JF, 1984, ACCUMULATION CRISIS PEET R, 1987, INT CAPITALISM IND R PEET R, 1989, POLITICAL EC PERSPEC PICKLES J, IN PRESS PROFESSIONA SAYER A, 1985, POLITICS METHOD CONT, P147 SCHOENBERGER E, 1991, PROF GEOGR, V43, P180 SLAVOV N, 1993, DROUGHT NETWORK NEWS, V5, P12 SMITH K, 1992, ENV HAZARDS ASSESSIN STIGLIANI W, 1993, NEW SCI 1211, P38 TIMMERMAN P, 1981, ENV MONOGRAPH, V1, P1 TURNER BL, 1990, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V1, P14 YARNAL B, 1994, DISASTERS, V18, P95 YARNAL B, 1994, LAND USE POLICY, V11, P67 NR 34 TC 3 J9 GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANGE BP 229 EP 243 PY 1994 PD SEP VL 4 IS 3 GA PE720 UT ISI:A1994PE72000004 ER PT J AU Terry, A Ryder, M TI Coping with change: The transition from subsistence orientated rain-fed agriculture to commercial irrigated agriculture SO GEOGRAPHY LA English DT Article C1 Univ W England, Sch Geog & Environm Management, Fac Built Environm, Bristol BS16 1QY, Avon, England. RP Terry, A, Univ W England, Sch Geog & Environm Management, Fac Built Environm, Coldharbour Lane, Bristol BS16 1QY, Avon, England. AB The adoption of irrigated commercial sugarcane farming by Swazi smallholders has bad a mixed effect on food security. A major factor is the differing managerial and financial skills of the individual farmers associations. The long-run prospects are potentially problematic due to a decline in sugar prices, particularly in the EU which, at present, is Swaziland's main overseas market. CR *DFID, 1999, SUST LIV GUID SHEETS *FAO, 1996, SYNTH TECHN BACKGR D *GFA, 1998, FEAS STUD LOW US BAS *GOV SWAZ, 1997, KINGD SWAZ NAT DEV S *WORLD BANK, 2003, WB SWAZ GLANC ATKINS S, 1995, Q J INT AGR, V34, P224 ATKINS SL, 1999, PEOPLE EMPLOYMENT PO BERNSTEIN H, 1992, RURAL LIVELIHOODS CR, P13 BERNSTEIN H, 1994, CAPITALISM DEV, P40 BRATTON M, 1992, RURAL LIVELIHOODS CR, P213 CARNEY D, 1998, SUSTAINABLE RURAL LI CARNEY D, 1999, OVERSEAS DEV I POVER, V2 CHAMBERS R, 1997, WHO REALITY COUNTS P CLAY E, 1997, FOOD SECURITY STATUS CORBETT J, 1988, WORLD DEV, V16, P1099 DAVIES S, 1996, ADAPTABLE LIVELIHOOD DEVEREUX S, 2001, FOOD SECURITY SUB SA FRANKENBURGER TR, 1992, HOUSEHOLD FOOD SECUR, P74 FUNNELL DC, 1991, SHADOW APARTHEID AGR GEIER G, 1995, FOOD SECURITY POLICY GEORGE S, 1976, OTHER HALF DIES REAL GLOVER DJ, 1984, WORLD DEV, V12, P1143 GLOVER DJ, 1990, SMALL FARMERS BIG BU GOODMAN D, 1997, GLOBALISING FOOD AGR GOZNELL J, 2004, FOOD POVERTY CONSUMP, V38, P15 GRIGG D, 1995, INTRO AGR GEOGRAPHY HANSON S, 1992, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V82, P569 HARRIS FMA, 2003, AMBIO, V32, P24 KEY N, 1999, WORLD DEV, V27, P381 LAPPE F, 1986, WORLD HUNGER 12 MYTH LEACH M, 1997, 359 IDS LITTLE P, 1994, LIVING CONTRACT CONT LONGHURST R, 1988, IDS B, V19, P2 LOW A, 1986, AGR DEV S AFRICA FAR MAXWELL S, 1988, NATL FOOD SECURITY P MAXWELL S, 1989, WORLD DEV, V17, P1677 MAXWELL S, 1996, FOOD POLICY, V21, P155 PACEY A, 1985, AGR DEV NUTR PAYNE P, 1994, FOOD POLICY REV, V2 PORTER G, 1997, GEOGRAPHY 1, V82, P38 POTTIER J, 1999, ANTHR FOOD SOCIAL DY REARDON T, 1989, SEASONAL VARIABILITY REDCLIFT M, 2002, COMPANION DEV STUDIE, P275 SAPSFORD D, 2001, COMPANION DEV STUDIE, P70 SCOTT J, 1976, MORAL EC PEASANT SEN AK, 1981, POVERTY FAMINES ESSA, V1, P1 STRINGFELLOW R, 1996, INVESTIGATION ORG FE SWIFT J, 1989, IDS B, V20, P8 SWIFT J, 2001, FOOD SECURITY SUB SA, P67 TERRY A, 2001, S AFRICAN GEOGRAPHIC, V83, P18 TERRY AK, 1997, SINGAPORE J TROP GEO, V18, P196 TIELEMAN H, 1988, 33 AFR STUD CTR LEID VONBRAUN J, 1993, DATA NEEDS FOOD POLI WATTS M, 1983, SILENT VIOLENCE FOOD WATTS M, 1990, FOOD QUESTION PROFIT, P149 WHITE B, 1997, J PEASANT STUD, V24, P110 NR 56 TC 0 J9 GEOGRAPHY BP 138 EP 150 PY 2005 PD SUM VL 90 GA 936VA UT ISI:000229882300004 ER PT J AU Schmidt-Thome, P Greiving, S Kallio, H Fleischhauer, M Jarva, J TI Economic risk maps of floods and earthquakes for European regions SO QUATERNARY INTERNATIONAL LA English DT Article C1 Geol Survey Finland, FIN-02150 Espoo, Finland. Univ Dortmund, Inst Spatial Planning, IRPUD, D-44227 Dortmund, Germany. RP Schmidt-Thome, P, Geol Survey Finland, Betonimiehenkuja 4, FIN-02150 Espoo, Finland. AB Europe experiences different natural hazards and subsequent risks that have various effects on the development of its regions. The spatial significance of hazards can be expressed as an economic risk when combining hazard potential with vulnerability data. Two examples of European natural hazard maps on floods and earthquakes, as well as the resulting risk profiles of regions (combination of hazard potential and vulnerability) give a first impression on the spatial characters of hazards in Europe and their potential impact on further spatial development. The economic risk maps enable a view on the spatial dimension of the economic damage potential of flood and earthquakes, pointing out comparable situations across Europe with the aim to facilitate targeted responses and policies. The spatial character of a hazard is either defined by spatial effects that might occur in case of a disaster or by the possibility of spatial planning responses. The integration of the economic vulnerability of a region (regional GDP per capita, population density) leads to a classification of areas according to their economic risk or damage potential towards hazards. These synthetic risk profiles are presented as risk maps of European regions in administrative boundaries. Obtained information can be of interest for spatial planning and development strategies, e.g. economic risk profile of regions can influence the targets of investments and could thus be an important background for structural funding. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd and INQUA. All rights reserved. CR *UNISDR, 2002, LIV RISK GLOB REV DI BACHFISCHER R, 1978, THESIS TU MUNCHEN MU BLAIKIE PM, 1994, RISK NATURAL HAZARDS, V1, P1 BURBY RJ, 1998, COOPERATING NATURE C LUBKOWSKI ZA, 1998, P ICE CIV ENG, V144, P55 RADU C, 1964, B SEISMOLOGICAL SOC, V54, P79 SCHMIDTTHOME P, 2006, NATURAL TECHNOLOGICA SCHMOLDT DL, 2001, MANAG FOR ECOSYST, V3, P1 SCHOLLES F, 1997, ABSCHATZEN EINSCHATZ, V13 TOBIN GA, 1997, NATURAL HAZARDS EXPL WESSEL J, 1995, US IT RES WORKSH HYD NR 11 TC 0 J9 QUATERN INT BP 103 EP 112 PY 2006 PD JUN VL 150 GA 054VC UT ISI:000238405700011 ER PT J AU Moreno, AR TI Climate change and human health in Latin America: drivers, effects, and policies SO REGIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 US Mexico Fdn Sci, Mexico City 03100, DF, Mexico. RP Moreno, AR, US Mexico Fdn Sci, San Francisco 1626 Desp 205,Col Valle, Mexico City 03100, DF, Mexico. AB Many people would be increasingly affected by living under critical conditions in Latin America if, as expected, global warming aggravates disease and pest transmission processes. Heat waves and air pollution would increase heat-related diseases and illness episodes in large cities. Fire smoke has been associated with irritation of the throat, lung and eyes, and respiratory problems. Climate extreme increases associated with climate change would cause physical damage, population displacement, and adverse effects on food production, freshwater availability and quality. It would also increase the risks of infectious and vector-borne diseases. Climate change impacts the geographical range, seasonality, and the incidence rate of vector-borne diseases. such as malaria. Climate-related ecological changes may expand cholera transmission, particularly populations in low-laying tropical coastal areas. El Nino conditions may affect the incidence of infectious diseases, such as malaria. Ocean warming would increase temperature-sensitive toxins produced by phytoplankton, which could cause more frequent contamination of seafood. A clearer understanding on the current role of climate change in disease patterns will be able to improve forecasts of potential future impacts of projected climate change and support action to reduce such impacts. CR *AID, 1998, 9 AID BUR HUM RESP O *IPCC, 2001, CONTR WORK GROUP 1 3, P81 *IPCC, 2001, CONTR WORK GROUP 2 3, P1032 *OPS, 1998, CE12210 OPS *OPS, 1999, OPAHCPHCTAIEPI99 OPS *PAHO, 1999, CONC REC M EV PREP R *WHO, 1998, WHO EURO INT WORKSH *WHO, 2001, MON HLTH IMP CLIM CH *WMO, 2000, 1997 1998 NINO EVENT BLAIKIE PM, 1994, RISK NATURAL HAZARDS, V1, P1 BOUMA MJ, 1996, TROP MED INT HEALTH, V1, P86 CALDERON C, 1995, GRANA, V34, P160 CANZIANI OF, 1998, REGIONAL IMPACTS CLI, V2, P187 CARCAVALLO RU, 1996, J EPIDEMIOLOGY, V6, S153 CATALA S, 1991, MED VET ENTOMOL, V5, P325 CATALA SS, 1992, AM J TROP MED HYG, V47, P20 CHAKRABORTY S, 1998, AUSTRALAS PLANT PATH, V27, P15 CHECKLEY W, 2000, LANCET, V355, P442 COLWELL RR, 1994, ANN NY ACAD SCI, V740, P44 CONFALONIERI U, 2003, TERRA LIVRE, V1, P193 CONFALONIERI UEC, 2000, CLIMATE VARIABILITY DAILY GC, 1997, NATURES SERVICES SOC DECASAS SIC, 1995, SOC SCI MED, V40, P1437 DUCLOS P, 1990, ARCH ENVIRON HEALTH, V45, P53 EMBERLIN J, 1994, ALLERGY, V49, P15 EPSTEIN PR, 1997, CLIMATE ECOLOGY HUMA EPSTEIN PR, 2000, SCI AM, V283, P50 FAGAN B, 1999, FLOODS FAMINES EMPER GAWITH MJ, 1999, CLIMATE CHANGE RISK, P279 GITHEKO AK, 2000, B WORLD HEALTH ORGAN, V78, P1136 GRASSES JP, 2000, EFECTOS ILUVIAS CAID GUBLER DJ, 1998, CLIN MICROBIOL REV, V11, P480 GUERRANT RL, 1996, EDGE DEV HLTH CRISIS, P91 HALES S, 2002, LANCET, V360, P830 KOVATS RS, 1999, WHOSDEPHE994 KOVATS RS, 2000, B WORLD HEALTH ORGAN, V78, P1127 KOVATS RS, 2000, CLIMATE VECTOR BORNE KOVATS RS, 2001, PHILOS T ROY SOC B, V356, P1057 KOVATS RS, 2005, RISK ANAL, V25, P1409 LOBITZ B, 2000, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V97, P1438 MARCONDES CB, 1997, MEM I OSWALDO CRUZ, V92, P317 MATA LJ, 2001, IPCC 2001 CLIMATE CH, P693 MCMICHAEL AJ, 2000, ENVIRON MONIT ASSESS, V61, P49 MCMICHAEL AJ, 2001, AM J PUBLIC HEALTH, V91, P1172 MCMICHAEL AJ, 2001, HUMAN FRONTIERS ENV MCMICHAEL AJ, 2001, IPCC 2001 CLIMATE CH, P451 MCMICHAEL AJ, 2002, REG C CLIM VAR CHANG MORENOBELTRAN A, 1999, J MOL CATAL B-ENZYM, V6, P1 ORTIZ PL, 1997, 8 C INT BIOM PAN, V97, P240 ORTIZ PL, 2000, P C NAT ASS RES CLIM, P203 PATZ JA, 1998, HLTH ENV, V12, P49 PATZ JA, 2001, ECOSYSTEM CHANGE PUB, P379 PATZ JA, 2002, NATURE, V420, P627 PATZ JA, 2002, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V99, P12506 REITER P, 2001, ENVIRON HEALTH PE S1, V109, P141 ROBERTS L, 2001, ECOSYSTEM CHANGE PUB, P409 ROSAS I, 1989, INT J BIOMETEOROL, V33, P173 ROSAS I, 1994, AEROBIOLOGIA, V10, P39 ROSAS I, 1995, AEROBIOLOGIA, V11, P81 SUTHERST RW, 2001, INT J PARASITOL, V31, P933 VANLIESHOUT M, 2004, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V14, P87 VITOUSEK PM, 1997, SCIENCE, V277, P494 WITTWER SH, 1995, FOOD CLIMATE CARBON NR 63 TC 0 J9 REG ENVIRON CHANG BP 157 EP 164 PY 2006 PD JUN VL 6 IS 3 GA 054MU UT ISI:000238382000004 ER PT J AU OBrien, KL Leichenko, RM TI Double exposure: assessing the impacts of climate change within the context of economic globalization SO GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS LA English DT Article C1 Univ Oslo, CICERO, N-0318 Oslo, Norway. Rutgers State Univ, Dept Geog, New Brunswick, NJ 08901 USA. Rutgers State Univ, Ctr Urban Policy Res, New Brunswick, NJ 08901 USA. RP OBrien, KL, Univ Oslo, CICERO, POB 1129 Blindern, N-0318 Oslo, Norway. AB This paper considers synergisms between the impacts of two global processes, climate change and economic globalization. Both processes entail long-term changes that will have differential impacts throughout the world. Despite widespread recognition that there will be "winners" and "losers" with both climate change and globalization, the two issues are rarely examined together. In this paper, we introduce the concept of double exposure as a framework for examining the simultaneous impacts of climate change and globalization. Double exposure refers to the fact that certain regions, sectors, ecosystems and social groups will be confronted both by the impacts of climate change, and by the consequences of globalization. By considering the joint impacts of the two processes, new sets of winners and losers emerge. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. CR 1999, WALL STREET J 0202, A1 *MET OFF, 1998, CLIM CHANG ITS IMP S *OECD, 1997, EC GLOB ENV *OECD, 1997, GLOB ENV *UNCTC, 1992, CLIM CHANG TRANSN CO *UNEP, 1993, ISS WINN LOS CLIM CH *WORLD BANK, 1998, WORLD DEV REP 1998 9 *WORLD FOOD PROGR, 1996, WFP VULN MAPP GUID ADGER WN, 1999, WORLD DEV, V27, P249 AGNEW J, 1997, GEOGRAPHIES EC ALCAMO J, 1998, GLOBAL CHANGE SCENAR APPENDINI K, 1994, FOOD POLICY, V19, P149 BARRY T, 1995, ZAPATAS REVENGE FREE BOHLE HG, 1994, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V4, P37 BONNIS G, 1997, OECD OBSERVER, P35 BOYER R, 1996, STATES MARKETS LIMIT BREDAHL ME, 1996, AGR TRADE ENV DISCOV CASTELLS M, 1996, RISE NETWORK SOC CASTELLS M, 1998, END MILLENIUM CONROY ME, 1993, J INTERAMERICAN STUD, V34, P1 COOK EI, 1997, SERIALS LIBR, V31, P1 CORNELIUS WA, 1998, TRANSFORMATION RURAL DEALCANTARA CH, 1994, EC RESTRUCTURING RUR DEJANVRY A, 1997, MEXICOS 2 AGR REFORM DICKEN P, 1997, GLOBAL SHIFT TRANSFO DOHLMAN E, 1997, OECD OBSERVER, P36 EPSTEIN G, 1996, STATES MARKETS LIMIT ESTY D, 1995, GREENING GATT TRADE FISCHER B, 1894, ERGEBNISSE PLANKTON, V4, P1 FISCHER B, 1990, INTERECONOMICS MAR, P55 GATES M, 1996, NEOLIBERALISM REVISI, P43 GLANTZ MH, 1995, CLIMATE CHANGE RES E GREIDER W, 1997, ONE WORLD READY NOT HANDLEY P, 1992, FAR E EC REV, V155, P65 HARRISON B, 1994, LEAN MEAN BIG FIRMS HAWKINS T, 1997, FINANCIAL TIMES 1211 HAYWARD DJ, 1995, INT REGIONAL SCI REV, V18, P1 HIRST P, 1996, GLOBALIZATION QUESTI HOUGHTON JJ, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995 HULME M, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE SO AF JARGOWSKY PA, 1997, POVERTY PLACE GHETTO KAY C, 1997, 1997 M LAT AM STUD A KERRY M, 1999, ENVIRONMENT, V41, P6 KRISSOFF B, 1996, 738 USDA EC RES SERV LIVERMAN DM, 1990, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V80, P49 LIVERMAN DM, 1991, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V1, P351 LIVERMAN DM, 1994, ENV RISKS HAZARDS MARKUSEN AR, 1991, INT REGIONAL SCI REV, V14, P15 MASON M, 1997, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V7, P113 MITTELMAN JH, 1994, 3 WORLD Q, V15, P427 MYHRE D, 1994, GLOBAL RESTRUCTURING, P145 NOPONEN H, 1997, ECON DEV Q, V11, P67 OBRIEN KL, 2000, 20003 CICERO PARRY ML, 1998, CLIMATE IMPACT ADAPT RAUSCHER M, 1997, INT TRADE FACTOR MOV REILLY JM, 1994, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V4, P24 REILLY JM, 1996, GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANG, P237 ROBBINS P, 1996, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V6, P235 SCHNEIDER SH, 1989, GLOBAL WARMING ARE W SMITH JB, 1998, VULNERABILITY ADAPTA STALK GJ, 1990, COMPETING TIME TIME STIX G, 1996, SCI AM, V274, P19 STONE R, 1995, SCIENCE, V267, P957 SUN HS, 1997, THIRD WORLD Q, V18, P843 TARDANICO R, 2000, POVERTY DEV GLOBAL R WATSON RT, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, V1, P1 WATSON RT, 1998, REGIONAL IMPACTS CLI, V1, P1 WOOD A, 1994, N S TRADE EMPLOYMENT NR 68 TC 6 J9 GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANGE BP 221 EP 232 PY 2000 PD OCT VL 10 IS 3 GA 368KQ UT ISI:000090116500006 ER PT J AU Pittock, AB Jones, RN TI Adaptation to what and why? SO ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING AND ASSESSMENT LA English DT Article C1 CSIRO, Climate Impacts Grp, Aspendale, Vic 3195, Australia. RP Pittock, AB, CSIRO, Climate Impacts Grp, PB 1, Aspendale, Vic 3195, Australia. AB Adaptation in response to anthropogenic climate change seeks to maintain viability by maximising benefits and minimising losses. It is necessary because some climatic change is now inevitable, despite the international focus on mitigation measures. Indeed, the measures agreed at Kyoto would by themselves result in only a small reduction in the climate changes to be expected over the next century. Discussion of the expected changes and possible impacts leads to the following conclusions regarding climate change scenarios in relation to impacts and adaptation: Climate change in the foreseeable future will not be some new stable "equilibrium" climate, but rather an ongoing "transient" process; Climate change predictions relevant to impacts on most sectors and ecosystems are still highly uncertain; There is a need for a greater focus on developing countries and tropical regions, and on relevant key variables, including the magnitude and frequency of extreme events; The focus should shift from single predictions, or extreme ranges of uncertainty, to risk assessment; Thresholds critical to impacted sectors and ecosystems should be identified, and expressed as functions of climatic variables; Planned adaptations will be necessary to cope with multiple stresses, including those due to non-climatic changes; A major task of adaptation science is to identify the limits of adaptation, i.e., to identify "dangerous levels of greenhouse gases" beyond which adaptation becomes impractical or prohibitively expensive. CR *CSIRO, 1996, CLIM CHANG SCEN AUST *WMO, 1995, 37 WORLD MET ORG GLO ANTHES RA, 1982, AM METEOROLOGICAL SO, V41 BAZZAZ FA, 1990, ANNU REV ECOL SYST, V21, P167 BEER T, 1995, 102 COMM AUSTR BOLIN B, 1998, SCIENCE, V279, P330 BROCCOLI AJ, 1995, B AM METEOROL SOC, V76, P2243 BUDDEMEIER RW, 1994, B I OCEANOGRAPHIQUE, V13, P119 BUDDEMEIER RW, 1996, B I OCEANOGRAPHIQUE, V14, P23 CUBASCH U, 1994, CLIM DYNAM, V10, P1 CURE JD, 1986, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V38, P127 ENGLAND MH, 1995, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V22, P3051 EVANS JL, 1992, INT J CLIMATOL, V12, P611 FAIRBANKS RG, 1989, NATURE, V342, P637 FOWLER AM, 1995, NAT HAZARDS, V11, P283 GATTUSO JP, IN PRESS AM ZOOLOGIS GIFFORD RM, 1996, GREENHOUSE COPING CL, P399 GLYNN PW, 1996, GLOB CHANGE BIOL, V2, P495 GORDON HB, 1997, MON WEATHER REV, V125, P875 GRAY WM, 1968, MON WEA REV, V96, P669 GRAY WM, 1975, 234 COL STAT U DEP A GREGORY JM, 1993, J CLIMATE, V6, P2247 HARRISON DE, 1997, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V24, P1779 HENDERSONSELLERS A, 1993, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V25, P203 HENDERSONSELLERS A, 1998, B AM METEOROL SOC, V79, P19 HENNESSY KJ, 1997, CLIM DYNAM, V13, P667 HERMAN JR, 1996, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V23, P2117 HOLLAND GJ, 1993, WMOTD560 HOLLAND GJ, 1997, J ATMOS SCI, V54, P2519 HOPLEY D, 1988, CSIRO PUB, P189 HUBBERT GD, IN PRESS J COASTAL R JACKETT DR, IN PRESS J CLIMATE JONES RN, 1997, FRONTIERS ECOLOGY BU, P311 JONES RN, 1998, IN PRESS P WORKSH IM KARL TR, 1990, J CLIMATE, V3, P1053 KINZIE RA, 1996, GLOB CHANGE BIOL, V2, P479 KLEYPAS JA, 1997, PALEOCEANOGRAPHY, V12, P533 KNUTSON TR, 1998, SCIENCE, V279, P1018 KONISHI T, 1995, PAPERS METEOROLOGY G, V46, P9 LARCOMBE P, 1996, GREAT BARRIER REEF T LIGHTHILL J, 1994, B AM METEOROL SOC, V75, P2147 LUBIN D, 1995, NATURE, V377, P710 MCDOUGALL TJ, 1996, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V23, P2085 MCGREGOR JL, 1993, MODELLING CHANGE ENV, P367 MEEHL GA, 1996, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V23, P3755 NASH JM, 1998, TIME 0302, P44 OFARRELL SP, 1997, ANN GLACIOL, V25, P137 PARRY ML, 1996, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V6, P1 PITTOCK AB, IN PRESS AM ZOOLOGIS PITTOCK AB, 1995, REV ENV, V37, P25 PITTOCK AB, 1995, WEATHER CLIMATE, V15, P21 RAJAGOPALAN B, 1997, J CLIMATE, V10, P2351 RAYNER S, 1997, SUGGESTIONS POLICYMA REVELL CG, 1986, MON WEATHER REV, V114, P1138 SCHICK JM, 1997, GLOB CHANGE BIOL, V6, P527 SMITH I, IN PRESS GLOBAL PLAN SOLOMON AM, 1993, VEGETATION DYNAMICS, P25 SUPPIAH R, 1998, 19941997 CSIRO DIV A TERAMURA AH, 1983, PHYSIOL PLANTARUM, V58, P415 TEVINI M, 1993, UV B RAD OZONE DEPLE TRENBERTH KE, 1996, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V23, P57 TRENBERTH KE, 1997, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V24, P3057 WALSH K, 1997, J CLIMATE, V10, P2240 WALSH KJE, UNPUB J CLIMATE WATSON RT, 1998, REGIONAL IMPACTS CLI, V1, P1 WATTERSON IG, 1995, J CLIMATE, V8, P3052 WHETTON PH, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE PEOPL, P89 WHETTON PH, 1996, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V33, P497 WIGLEY TML, 1998, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V25, P2285 WILBY RL, 1997, PROG PHYS GEOG, V21, P530 WILSON SG, 1997, IMPACT GREENHOUSE WA WYRTKI K, 1985, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V12, P125 NR 72 TC 8 J9 ENVIRON MONIT ASSESS BP 9 EP 35 PY 2000 PD MAR VL 61 IS 1 GA 300UB UT ISI:000086270100002 ER PT J AU Meir, E Andelman, S Possingham, HP TI Does conservation planning matter in a dynamic and uncertain world? SO ECOLOGY LETTERS LA English DT Article C1 Univ Calif Santa Barbara, Natl Ctr Ecol Anal & Synth, Santa Barbara, CA 93101 USA. Simbiot Software, Ithaca, NY 14850 USA. Univ Queensland, Ctr Ecol, St Lucia, Qld 4075, Australia. Univ Queensland, Dept Math, St Lucia, Qld 4075, Australia. RP Andelman, S, Univ Calif Santa Barbara, Natl Ctr Ecol Anal & Synth, Santa Barbara, CA 93101 USA. AB Loss of biodiversity is one of the world's overriding environmental challenges. Reducing those losses by creating reserve networks is a cornerstone of global conservation and resource management. Historically, assembly of reserve networks has been ad hoc, but recently the focus has shifted to identifying optimal reserve networks. We show that while comprehensive reserve network design is best when the entire network can be implemented immediately, when conservation investments must be staged over years, such solutions actually may be sub-optimal in the context of biodiversity loss and uncertainty. Simple decision rules, such as protecting the available site with the highest irreplaceability or with the highest species richness, may be more effective when implementation occurs over many years. CR *WDPA, 2003, WORLD DAT PROT AR IU AIRAME S, 2003, ECOL APPL S, V13, S170 ANDELMAN SJ, 1999, SITES V 1 0 ANAL TOO ANDELMAN SJ, 2002, CONSERV BIOL, V16, P1352 ANDELMAN SJ, 2003, ECOL LETT, V6, P818 ANDO A, 1998, SCIENCE, V279, P2126 BALMFORD A, 2002, SCIENCE, V297, P950 BELLMAN R, 1957, DYNAMIC PROGRAMMING CARO TM, 2001, BIOL CONSERV, V98, P251 COSTELLO C, 2004, RESOUR ENERGY ECON, V26, P157 COWLING RM, 2003, BIOL CONSERV, V112, P191 DAILY GC, 2001, ECOL APPL, V11, P1 DAVIS FW, 1999, PARKS, V9, P31 FERRIER S, 2000, BIOL CONSERV, V93, P303 FRANKLIN JF, 1993, ECOL APPL, V3, P202 GROVES C, 2003, DRAFTING CONSERVATIO JAMES A, 2001, BIOSCIENCE, V51, P43 LI L, 2003, LANDSCAPE URBAN PLAN, V64, P67 LIU JG, 2001, SCIENCE, V292, P98 MALAKOFF D, 2002, SCIENCE, V296, P245 MANGEL M, 1988, DYNAMIC MODELING BEH MIDGLEY GF, 2002, GLOBAL ECOL BIOGEOGR, V11, P445 MIDGLEY GF, 2003, BIOL CONSERV, V112, P87 MILLER KR, 1996, BIODIVERSITY MANAGED, P425 NEWMARK WD, 1987, NATURE, V325, P430 NOSS RF, 2002, CONSERV BIOL, V16, P895 PARKS SA, 2002, CONSERV BIOL, V16, P800 PIMM SL, 2001, SCIENCE, V293, P2207 POLASKY S, 2001, LAND ECON, V77, P76 PONTIUS RG, 2001, AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON, V85, P191 POSSINGHAM H, 1993, P 12 AUSTR OP RES C, P536 POSSINGHAM H, 1999, QUANTITATIVE METHODS, P291 PRESSEY RL, 1996, BIOL CONSERV, V76, P259 PYKE CR, 2004, FRONTIERISM ECOL ENV, V4, P178 RODRIGUES ASL, 2004, NATURE, V428, P640 ROSENZWEIG ML, 2003, WIN WIN ECOLOGY EART THEOBALD DM, 1998, GEOGRAPHICAL ENV MOD, V2, P65 WADDELL P, 2002, TRANSPORT RES REC, V1805, P105 NR 38 TC 1 J9 ECOL LETT BP 615 EP 622 PY 2004 PD AUG VL 7 IS 8 GA 838ME UT ISI:000222716600001 ER PT J AU Herbert, JM Dixon, RW Isom, JL TI A tropical weather vulnerability assessment for Texas coastal counties SO TEXAS JOURNAL OF SCIENCE LA English DT Article C1 Texas State Univ, James & Marilyn Lovell Ctr Environm Geog & Hazard, Dept Geog, San Marcos, TX 78666 USA. RP Herbert, JM, Jacksonville State Univ, Dept Phys & Earth Sci, Jacksonville, AL 36265 USA. AB A Tropical Weather Vulnerability Index is developed for the Texas coast. This index is based on the Hurricane Vulnerability Index of Dixon & Fitzsimons (2001), but includes additional data on tropical storms and accounts for edge effects of storms making landfall in Louisiana or Tamaulipas. The Index includes risk and exposure. Risk is measured by the number of landfalling tropical storms and hurricanes on Texas coastal counties. Exposure is measured by the number of people and the amount of property in these counties. Analysis shows the northern part of the coast, particularly Harris, Galveston, and Brazoria counties, to be more vulnerable than the central and southern parts. CR *NATL WEATH SERV H, 2001, ONLINE TROP STORM AL BOVE MC, 1998, B AM METEOROL SOC, V79, P1327 DIXON RW, 2001, TEX J SCI, V53, P345 ELSNER JB, 2000, J CLIMATE, V13, P2293 ELSNER JB, 2003, B AM METEOROL SOC, V84, P353 FRANKLIN JL, 2003, B AM METEOROL SOC, V84, P1197 HERRERA RG, 2003, B AM METEOROL SOC, V84, P1025 LANDSEA CW, 1993, MON WEATHER REV, V121, P1703 PIELKE JR, 1997, HURRICANES THEIR NAT NR 9 TC 0 J9 TEX J SCI BP 187 EP 196 PY 2005 PD MAY VL 57 IS 2 GA 956CU UT ISI:000231277300006 ER PT J AU Lehner, B Doll, P Alcamo, J Henrichs, T Kaspar, F TI Estimating the impact of global change on flood and drought risks in europe: A continental, integrated analysis SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 World Wildlife Fund US, Washington, DC 20037 USA. Univ Kassel, Ctr Environm Syst Res, D-34109 Kassel, Germany. RP Lehner, B, World Wildlife Fund US, 1250 24th St NW, Washington, DC 20037 USA. AB Most studies on the impact of climate change on regional water resources focus on long-term average flows or mean water availability, and they rarely take the effects of altered human water use into account. When analyzing extreme events such as floods and droughts, the assessments are typically confined to smaller areas and case studies. At the same time it is acknowledged that climate change may severely alter the risk of hydrological extremes over large regional scales, and that human water use will put additional pressure on future water resources. In an attempt to bridge these various aspects, this paper presents a first-time continental, integrated analysis of possible impacts of global change (here defined as climate and water use change) on future flood and drought frequencies for the selected study area of Europe. The global integrated water model WaterGAP is evaluated regarding its capability to simulate high and low-flow regimes and is then applied to calculate relative changes in flood and drought frequencies. The results indicate large critical regions' for which significant changes in flood or drought risks are expected under the proposed global change scenarios. The regions most prone to a rise in flood frequencies are northern to northeastern Europe, while southern and southeastern Europe show significant increases in drought frequencies. In the critical regions, events with an intensity of today's 100-year floods and droughts may recur every 10-50 years by the 2070s. Though interim and preliminary, and despite the inherent uncertainties in the presented approach, the results underpin the importance of developing mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change impacts on a continental scale. CR *DVWK, 1998, WORK OUT DROUGHT MIT *EEA, 1999, 2 EUR ENV AG *EIA, 2001, INT EN ANN 2001 CARB *GRDC, 1999, LONG TERM MEAN MONTH *IPCC, 1992, CLIM CHANG 1992 S RE *IPCC, 2000, SPEC REP EM SCEN MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 *IPCC, 2001, CLIM CHANG 2001 SCI *WMO, 1994, 168 WORLD MET ORG ALCAMO J, 1998, GLOBALC HANGE SCENAR ALCAMO J, 2003, HYDROLOG SCI J, V48, P317 ALCAMO J, 2003, HYDROLOG SCI J, V48, P339 ARNELL NW, 1994, IAHS PUBL, V221, P179 ARNELL NW, 1999, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V9, P5 ARNELL NW, 2000, EF5VCT930293 U SOUTH ARNELL NW, 2000, EV5VCT940114 U SOUTH BERGKAMP G, 2003, CHANGE ADAPTATION WA BERGSTROM S, 2001, CLIMATE RES, V16, P101 BRADFORD RB, 2000, DROUGHT DROUGHT MITI, V14, P7 BURLANDO P, 2002, HYDROL PROCESS, V16, P1151 BURLANDO P, 2002, HYDROL PROCESS, V16, P1177 CARTER TR, 1994, IPCC TECHNICAL GUIDE CHIEW FHS, 2002, HYDROL PROCESS, V16, P1235 DEMUTH S, 2001, ENVCT970553 U FREIB DOLL P, 2002, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V54, P269 DOLL P, 2002, J HYDROL, V258, P214 DOLL P, 2002, P 3 INT C WAT RES EN, V1, P27 DOLL P, 2003, J HYDROL, V270, P105 DYCK S, 1995, GRUNDLAGEN HYDROLOGI FREI C, 1998, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V25, P1431 GENG S, 1986, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V36, P363 GORDON C, 2000, CLIM DYNAM, V16, P147 HAAN CT, 2002, STAT METHODS HYDROLO HENRI S, 2002, GENES IMMUN, V3, P1 HULME M, 1999, NATURE, V397, P688 HULME M, 2001, CLIMATE RES, V17, P145 JANSSEN PHM, 1995, ECOL MODEL, V83, P55 JONES JAA, 1996, REGIONAL HYDROLOGICA, P87 JONES JAA, 1997, GLOBAL HYDROLOGY PRO JONES JAA, 1999, HYDROLOG SCI J, V44, P541 JONES JAA, 2002, HYDROL PROCESS, V16, P1135 KARL TR, 1993, J CLIMATE, V6, P1481 KATZ RW, 1992, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V21, P289 KILSBY CG, 1999, EV5VCT940510, P113 LEHNE B, 2001, MODELLIERUNG MESO BI, P160 MAIDMENT DR, 1993, HDB HYDROLOGY MEARNS LO, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 MITCHELL TD, 1999, PROG PHYS GEOG, V23, P57 NEW M, 2000, J CLIMATE, V13, P2217 PARRY ML, 2000, EUROPE ACACIA PROJEC PILLING CG, 2002, HYDROL PROCESS, V16, P1201 PRUDHOMME C, 2002, HYDROL PROCESS, V16, P1137 ROCKNER E, 1999, J CLIMATE, V12, P3004 SMAKHTIN VU, 2001, J HYDROL, V240, P147 TALLAKSEN LM, 2000, DROUGHT DROUGHT MITI, V14, P103 TATE EL, 2000, DROUGHT DROUGHT MITI, V14, P23 VOSS R, 2002, INT J CLIMATOL, V22, P755 WATSON RT, 1998, REGIONAL IMPACTS CLI, V1, P1 WILBY RL, 1997, PROG PHYS GEOG, V21, P530 XU CY, 1999, PROG PHYS GEOG, V23, P229 NR 60 TC 0 J9 CLIMATIC CHANGE BP 273 EP 299 PY 2006 PD APR VL 75 IS 3 GA 046EC UT ISI:000237793200001 ER PT J AU CHANGNON, SA TI RESEARCH AGENDA FOR FLOODS TO SOLVE POLICY FAILURE SO JOURNAL OF WATER RESOURCES PLANNING AND MANAGEMENT-ASCE LA English DT Article C1 ILLINOIS STATE WATER SURVEY,CHAMPAIGN,IL. CR 1979, PROCEDURES EVALUATIO 1980, PROGR REPORT IMPLEME 1980, REPORT FLOOD HAZARD CARROLL J, 1979, BENEFITS COSTS, V2 CAULFIELD HP, 1983, PLAN RES FLOODS THEI, P137 CHANGNON SA, 1980, PLAN RES FLOODS THEI DRABEK T, 1983, PLAN RES FLOODS THEI, P107 MARZOLF GR, 1983, PLAN RES FLOODS THEI, P55 MILLIMAN JW, 1983, PLAN RES FLOODS THEI, P83 WHITE GF, 1975, ASSESSMENT RES NATUR, V1, P1 WHITE GF, 1975, FLOOD HAZARD US RES WHITE GF, 1983, PLAN RES FLOODS THEI, P173 NR 12 TC 1 J9 J WATER RESOUR PLAN MAN-ASCE BP 54 EP 64 PY 1985 VL 111 IS 1 GA TY302 UT ISI:A1985TY30200004 ER PT J AU Cosgrove, W Connor, R Kuylenstierna, J TI Workshop 3 (synthesis): climate variability, water systems and management options SO WATER SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY LA English DT Article C1 Chair Int Steering Comm, Grp Secor, Dialogue Water & Climate, Montreal, PQ H2Z 1B1, Canada. Dialogue Water & Climate, NL-2601 DA Delft, Netherlands. Stockholm Int Water Inst, SE-11221 Stockholm, Sweden. RP Cosgrove, W, Chair Int Steering Comm, Grp Secor, Dialogue Water & Climate, 555 Blvd Rene Levesque Quest, Montreal, PQ H2Z 1B1, Canada. AB Addressing climate variability now will better prepare us for future impacts of climate change. Sustained, multi-stakeholder dialogue at local through national levels is an approach that will reach the widest audience, helped by tools that illustrate vulnerability such as the Climate Vulnerability Index. Integrated water resources management deals with managing for variability and change and is therefore highly appropriate for dealing with climate impacts. NR 0 TC 0 J9 WATER SCI TECHNOL BP 129 EP 132 PY 2004 VL 49 IS 7 GA 834HB UT ISI:000222401100025 ER PT J AU Reed, MS Dougill, AJ TI Participatory selection process for indicators of rangeland condition in the Kalahari SO GEOGRAPHICAL JOURNAL LA English DT Article C1 Univ Leeds, Sch Environm, Leeds Environm & Dev Grp, Leeds LS2 9JT, W Yorkshire, England. RP Reed, MS, Univ Leeds, Sch Environm, Leeds Environm & Dev Grp, Leeds LS2 9JT, W Yorkshire, England. AB To develop indicator-based management tools that can facilitate sustainable natural resource management by non-specialists, meaningful participation of stakeholders is essential. A participatory framework is proposed for the identification, evaluation and selection of rangeland condition indicators. This framework is applied to the assessment of rangeland degradation processes and sustainable natural resource management with pastoralists in the southern Kalahari, Botswana. Farmer knowledge focused on vegetation and livestock, with soil, wild animal and socio-economic indicators playing a lesser role. Most were indicators of current rangeland condition; however 'early warning' indicators were also identified by some key informants. This demonstrates that some local knowledge is process-based. Such knowledge could be used to improve indicator-based management tools and extension advice on the livelihood adaptations necessary to prevent or reduce ecological change, capable of threatening livelihood sustainability. There is evidence that social background influences indicator use. Communal farmers rely most heavily on vegetation and livestock indicators, whilst syndicate and landowning pastoralists cite wild animal and soil-based indicators most frequently. These factors must be considered if indicator-based management tools are to meet the requirements of a diverse community. CR MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 *NRC, 2000, IND NAT *OECD, 1993, OECD COR SET IND ENV *UNCSD, 1996, IND SUST DEV FRAM ME ABEL NOJ, 1989, LAND DEGRAD REHABIL, V1, P101 ABEL NOJ, 1993, RANGE ECOLOGY DISEQU ASHLEY C, 2000, 134 ODI BEHNKE RH, 1993, RANGE ECOLOGY DISEQU BELLOWS BC, 1995, 195 SANREM CRSP, P243 BRECKENRIDGE RP, 1995, ENVIRON MONIT ASSESS, V36, P45 CAMPBELL BM, 2000, ECOL ECON, V33, P413 CARNEY D, 1998, SUSTAINABLE RURAL LI COWLING RM, 2000, TRENDS ECOL EVOL, V15, P303 DAVIES S, 1996, ADAPTABLE LIVELIHOOD DOUGILL A, 1999, GLOBAL ECOL BIOGEOGR, V8, P211 DOUGILL AJ, 1995, LAND DEGRADATION GRA DOUGILL AJ, 1999, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V89, P420 FORAN BD, 1978, P GRASSLAND SOC SO A, V15, P37 GRANT CC, 1996, ONDERSTEPOORT J VET, V63, P109 ILLIUS AW, 1999, ECOL APPL, V9, P798 ILLIUS AW, 2000, OIKOS, V89, P283 KIPURI N, 1996, GRASSROOTS INDICATOR KRUGMANN H, 1996, GRASSROOTS INDICATOR LANE CR, 1998, CUSTODIANS COMMONS P LIGHTFOOT C, 1993, J ASIAN FARMING SYST, V2, P67 MIDDLETON NJ, 1997, WORLD ATLAS DESERTIF MILTON SJ, 1998, J ARID ENVIRON, V39, P253 MORSE S, 2001, SUSTAIN DEV, V9, P1 PERKINS JS, 1993, LAND DEGRAD REHABIL, V4, P179 REED MS, 2001, FACILITATING PARTICI REIJ C, 2001, FARMER INNOVATION AF, P1 RENNIE JK, 1996, PARTICIPATORY RES SU SAVORY A, 1988, BIOL MONITORING NOTE SCOONES I, 1995, LIVING UNCERTAINTY N, P1 SCOONES I, 1998, 72 IDS SKARPE C, 1986, J ARID ENVIRON, V11, P147 SMYTH AJ, 1995, CAN J SOIL SCI, V75, P401 SPORTON D, 2002, SUSTAINABLE LIVELIHO STOCKDALE MC, 1996, RECENT APPROACHES PA STOCKING MA, 2001, HDB FIELD ASSESSMENT THOMAS DSG, 1991, J ARID ENVIRON, V20, P1 THOMAS DSG, 2000, LAND DEGRAD DEV, V11, P327 THOMAS DSG, 2001, 58 PANRUSA DFID U SH TONGWAY D, 1995, ENVIRON MONIT ASSESS, V37, P303 TOULMIN C, 2000, EVOLVING LAND RIGHTS TWYMAN C, 2001, REV AFRICAN POLITICA, V28, P9 VORSTER M, 1982, P GRASSLAND SOC SO A, V17, P84 WHITE R, 1993, LIVESTOCK DEV PASTOR WOODHOUSE P, 2000, 2 U MANCH NR 49 TC 0 J9 GEOGR J BP 224 EP 234 PY 2002 PD SEP VL 168 GA 614KV UT ISI:000179188900004 ER PT J AU Kerr, RB TI Informal labor and social relations in northern Malawi: The theoretical challenges and implications of ganyu labor for food security SO RURAL SOCIOLOGY LA English DT Article C1 Cornell Univ, Dept Dev Sociol, Ithaca, NY 14853 USA. RP Kerr, RB, Cornell Univ, Dept Rural Sociol, Ithaca, NY 14853 USA. AB Food insecurity is a problem faced by smallholder farmers in Malawi. In any given year between 70 and 85 percent of households run out of food stocks several months prior to the next harvest. Once food stocks are depleted many households obtain food by doing ganyu, a type of piecework labor. Limited research has been carried out on ganyu. This paper uses qualitative data to examine ganyu in relation to food security in one area of northern Malawi. Using the livelihoods framework, I argue that the most common form of ganyu is both a livelihood strategy and a measure of vulnerability, rather than a type of social capital as suggested by other authors. High reliance on ganyu points to increased social stratification related to a rise in smallholder tobacco production. Women in female-headed households appear to rely more on ganyu than in married households. Policy implications of these findings are considered. CR *MIN AGR, 1991, FOOD SEC NUTR MON RE *MIN AGR, 1993, NAT SAMPL SURV AGR 1 *MSIS, 1996, MAL SOC IND SURV 199 *NAT STUD OFF MACR, 2001, MAL DEM HLTH SURV 20 ADATO M, 2002, 128 FCND IFPRI BENSON T, 2002, MALAWI ATLAS SOCIAL BOURDIEU P, 1985, HDB THEORY RES SOCIO, P241 BROWN DL, 2001, RURAL SOCIOL, V66, P157 COLEMAN J, 1988, AM J SOCIOL, V94, P94 DEVEREUX S, 1997, HOUSEHOLD FOOD SECUR ELLIS F, 2002, 17 LADDER DFID ENGLUND H, 1999, AFRICA, V69, P138 FINE B, 2001, SOCIAL CAPITAL VERSU GRANOVETTER M, 1985, AM J SOCIOL, V91, P481 HIRSCHMANN D, 1984, WOMEN FARMERS MALAWI KERR RB, 2005, IN PRESS J SO AFRICA KYDD J, 1989, J INT DEV, V1, P112 KYDD JG, 1982, WORLD DEV, V10, P377 LAWSONMCDOWALL, 1999, FARMING SYSTEM INTEG LIGHTFOOT C, 1991, HOUSEHOLDS AGROECOSY LOW JW, 1994, THESIS CORNELL U LUHANGU MS, 2002, UNPUB FOOD SECURITY MARSLAND N, 1999, COPING POVERTY MALAW MATSUKWA L, 1994, FOOD POLICY PRODUCTI MCCRACKEN J, 1982, J SO AFRICAN STUDIES, V9, P172 MTIKA MM, 2001, HUM ORGAN, V60, P178 ORR A, 2000, WORLD DEV, V28, P347 ORR A, 2001, WORLD DEV, V29, P1325 PATTON MQ, 1990, QUALITATIVE EVALUATI PETERS P, 1988, WORKSH HOUS FOOD SEC, P33 PETERS P, 1989, CASH CROPPING FOOD S PETERS P, 1995, DEV LIBERALIZATION M PETERS P, 1996, 562 HARV I INT DEV PETERS P, 1999, AGR COMMERCIALIZATIO PETERS PE, 1997, CRIT ANTHROPOL, V17, P189 PORTES A, 1998, ANNU REV SOCIOL, V24, P1 PORTES A, 2000, SOCIOL FORUM, V15, P1 PUTNAM R, 1993, MAKING DEMOCRACY WOR REARDON T, 1997, WORLD DEV, V25, P735 SMALE M, 1995, WORLD DEV, V23, P819 VAIL L, 1983, HIST CENTRAL AFRICA, V2, P200 VAUGHAN M, 1987, STORY AFRICAN FAMINE WALKER PA, 1998, INT ASS STUDY COMMON, P21 WALL E, 1998, RURAL SOCIOL, V63, P300 WHITEHEAD A, 2001, IDS WORKING PAPER, V134, P1 WHITESIDE M, 2000, AGR RES EXTENSION NE, V99, P1 NR 46 TC 0 J9 RURAL SOCIOL BP 167 EP 187 PY 2005 PD JUN VL 70 IS 2 GA 958EJ UT ISI:000231427200002 ER PT J AU Murphy, AB TI The role of geography in public debate SO PROGRESS IN HUMAN GEOGRAPHY LA English DT Editorial Material C1 Univ Oregon, Eugene, OR 97403 USA. Michigan State Univ, E Lansing, MI 48824 USA. Clark Univ, Worcester, MA 01610 USA. Univ So Calif, Los Angeles, CA 90089 USA. Univ British Columbia, Vancouver, BC V5Z 1M9, Canada. RP Murphy, AB, Univ Oregon, Eugene, OR 97403 USA. AB Many geographers work on matters of great relevance for the issues facing society, but geography is rarely invoked in public debates over matters of contemporary concern. As a result, geographical perspectives are often missing from public discourse, and outmoded conceptions of geography are reinforced. This forum considers the importance and challenge of addressing this state of affairs. Four distinguished geographers who have been involved in different ways with the effort to raise geography's profile consider the possibilities and limitations of enhancing geography's public profile. Consideration is given to the prospects for raising the discipline's visibility in high-profile public venues, the role of geography in organized international research endeavors, the challenge of linking what geographers do to social activism, and the importance of questioning the unproblematized geographical ideas and discursive norms that already circulate in the public arena. CR 2003, NY TIMES 1130, A8 2003, PNAS, V100, P8059 *IGBP IHDP, 1995, 35 IGBPIHDP *IGBP IHDP, 1999, 46 IGBPIHDP *NRC, 1999, OUR COMM JOURN TRANS *NRC, 2003, EARTH GEOGR INF SUST ABLER RF, 1987, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V77, P511 ABLER RF, 2001, AAG NEWSLETTER, V36, P1 AGAMBEN G, 2004, OPEN MAN ANIMAL AMIN A, 1988, ETHNICITY EMPATHY NE, V39, P621 BARAD K, 1998, DIFFERENCES J FEMINI, V10, P87 BARNETT C, 2003, CULTURE DEMOCRACY ME BEBBINGTON A, 2003, TIJDSCHR ECON SOC GE, V94, P297 BEBBINGTON A, 2004, J DEV STUD, V40, P33 BEBBINGTON A, 2004, PROG HUM GEOG, V28, P725 BERRY BJL, 2002, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V92, P359 BLAIKIE PM, 1994, RISK NATURAL HAZARDS, V1, P1 BROWN W, 1994, STATES INJURY BUTLER J, 2004, PRECARIOUS LIFE POWE, P1 BUTLER J, 2004, PRECARIOUS LIFE POWE, P101 CALHOUN C, 2002, UNDERSTANDING SEPTEM CASTREE N, 2001, ENVIRON PLANN A, V33, P1519 CHRISTIAN B, 1987, CULTURAL CRITIQUE, V6, P51 CORBRIDGE S, 1993, ENVIRON PLANN D, V11, P449 CRUTZEN PJ, 2001, GLOBAL CHANGE NEWSLE, V41, P12 CULLER J, 2003, JUST BEING DIFFICULT, P1 CUTTER SL, 2003, GEOGRAPHICAL DIMENSI CUTTER SL, 2002, PROF GEOGR, V54, P305 DASILVA DF, 2005, IN PRESS RACE NATION DEBLIJ HJ, 1987, AAG ANN M PORTL OR DEBLIJ HJ, 1990, FOCUS, V40, P32 DEBLIJ HJ, 2001, GEOGRAPHICAL B, V43, P69 DEBLIJ HJ, 2003, NY TIMES 1011, A22 DEMERITT D, 2001, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V91, P307 DERRIDA J, 2000, HOSPITALITY DIAMOND J, 1997, GUNS GERMS STEEL DICKEN P, 2004, T I BRIT GEOGR, V29, P5 DORLING D, 2002, PROG HUM GEOG, V26, P629 EHLERS E, 2001, UNDERSTANDING EARTH FAGAN B, 2000, LITTLE ICE AGE FERGUSON M, 2003, JUST BEING DIFFICULT, P15 FERNANDES L, 1997, PRODUCING WORKERS PO FISHER RM, 2002, SKEPTICAL INQUIRER, V26, P49 FODEN G, 2002, ZANZIBAR FUKUYAMA F, 1998, FOREIGN AFFAIRS MAR, P312 GELB L, 2003, NY TIMES 1125, A22 GILMORE RW, 1993, READING R KING READI GILMORE RW, 1999, TRANSFORMING ANTHR, V8, P12 GILMORE RW, 2002, GEOGRAPHIES GLOBAL C, P261 GILMORE RW, 2004, GLOBALIZE LIBERATION, P381 GILMORE RW, 2005, IN PRESS GOLDEN GULA GILROY P, 2003, INT J CULTURAL STUDI, V6, P261 GOULD P, 1993, SLOW PLAGUE GEOGRAPH GRAMSCI A, 1971, SELECTIONS PRISON NO GREENBERG M, 1994, SOC SCI MED, V39, P179 GREGORY D, 2004, COLONIAL PRESENT AFG GREGORY D, 2004, ENVIRON PLANN D, V22, P317 GREGORY D, 2004, WHOS RESPONSIBLE DAN GROSVENOR G, 1995, WASHINGTON POST 0728, A26 HABERMAS J, 1971, RATIONAL SOC HALL S, 1994, COLONIAL DISCOURSE P, P392 HARAWAY D, 1991, SIMIANS CYBORGS WOME, P183 HARVEY D, 1974, T I BRIT GEOGR, V63, P18 HARVEY D, 2000, PUBLIC CULTURE, V12, P529 HARVEY D, 2004, P BRIT ACAD, V122, P87 HERSHBERG E, 2002, CRITICAL VIEWS SEPTE HEYDEMANN S, 2004, SOCIAL SECURITY RES HUGO V, 1862, MISERABLES IGNATIEFF M, 1984, NEEDS STRANGERS KASPERSON JX, 2001, INT WORKSH VULN GLOB KASPERSON RE, 1990, GLOBAL ENV CHANGE HU, V1, P14 KATES RW, 1987, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V77, P525 KATZ C, 2001, ANTIPODE, V33, P709 KATZ C, 2001, SIGNS, V26, P1213 KEELING CD, 1998, ANNU REV ENERG ENV, V23, P25 KEITH M, 1992, ENVIRON PLANN D, V10, P551 KUHN T, 1962, STRUCTURE SCI REVOLU LAKE RW, 1992, ENVIRON PLANN A, V24, P663 LAKOFF G, 1996, MORAL POLITICS LANDES D, 1998, WEALTH POVERTY NATIO LEWIS M, 1997, MYTH CONTINENTS CRIT LINEBAUGH P, 2000, MANY HEADED HYDRA LIVERMAN DM, 2004, GUARDIAN, V1, P14 LOCKMAN Z, 2004, BATTLES US MIDDLE E LOMBORG B, 2001, SKEPTICAL ENV MAKHIJANI A, 1995, MENDING OZONE HOLE S MARX K, 1845, SELECTED WORKS, V1, P15 MARX K, 1867, CAPITAL, V1, P283 MASSEY D, 1994, SPACE PLACE GENDER MASSEY D, 2001, PROG HUM GEOG, V25, P5 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 MEARNS R, 1996, LIE LAND CHALLENGING MICHAELS P, 2000, SATANIC GASES CLEARI MONMONIER M, 1996, LIE MAPS MURPHY AB, 2003, AAG NEWSLETTER, V38, P3 MURPHY AB, 2004, AAG NEWSLETTER, V39, P3 NEGRI A, 1968, REVOLTUION RETRIEVED, P43 OTUATHAIL G, 2003, ANTIPODE, P856 PATTERSON O, 1982, SLAVERY SOCIAL DEATH PELLING M, 2004, REDUCING DISASTER RI PRASHAD V, 2003, OUT BOUNDS MAGAZINE PRATT G, 1987, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V77, P652 PULIDO L, 2000, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V90, P12 REYNOLDS JE, 2002, GLOBAL DESERTIFICATI ROBINSON C, 1982, BLACK MARXISM MAKING ROCHELEAU D, 1988, AGROFORESTRY DRYLAND ROCHELEAU D, 1996, FEMINIST POLITICAL E ROCHELEAU D, 1997, WORLD DEV, V25, P1351 RYCENGA J, 1992, THESIS GRADUATE THEO, P261 SACHS J, 2000, 1 US NAV WAR COLL SAID E, 1978, ORIENTALISM SAID E, 1993, CULTURE IMPERIALISM SAID E, 2004, HUMANISM DEMOCRATIC SCHNEIDER SH, 2001, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V91, P338 SMITH A, 2002, THESIS U CALIFORNIA SMITH N, 1992, SOCIAL TEXT, V33, P55 SOLIS P, 2004, AAG NEWSLETTER, V39, P9 SONTAG S, 2003, REGARDING PAIN OTHER STEFFEN W, 2004, GLOBAL CHANGE EARTH TURNER BL, 1990, EARTH TRANSFORMED HU TURNER BL, 1997, GEOGR J 2, V163, P133 TURNER BL, 2003, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V100, P8074 TURSE N, 2004, Z COMMUNICATIONS WALLERSTEIN I, 1991, UNTHINKING SOCIAL SC WARNER M, 2002, PUBLICS COUNTER PUBL WARNER M, 2003, JUST BEING DIFFICULT, P106 WEART SR, 2003, DISCOVERY GLOBAL WAR WHITE GF, 1985, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V75, P10 WILFORD J, 2001, OP SESS ASS AM GEOGR WISNER B, 2001, DISASTERS, V25, P251 WOLCH J, 1989, SHADOW STATE GOVT VO ZELINSKY W, 1987, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V77, P651 NR 132 TC 7 J9 PROG HUM GEOGR BP 165 EP 193 PY 2005 PD APR VL 29 IS 2 GA 929AN UT ISI:000229314600004 ER PT J AU Schendel, EK Schreier, H Lavkulich, LM TI Linkages between phosphorus index estimates and environmental quality indicators SO JOURNAL OF SOIL AND WATER CONSERVATION LA English DT Article C1 Univ British Columbia, Inst Resources Environm & Sustainabil, Vancouver, BC V5Z 1M9, Canada. RP Schendel, EK, Univ British Columbia, Inst Resources Environm & Sustainabil, Vancouver, BC V5Z 1M9, Canada. AB A growing concern over water quality in agricultural areas highlights phosphorus (P) as a key constituent in eutrophication and degrading water quality. A preliminary analysis is presented that tests the effectiveness of P index predictions using linkages to sediment and surface water P concentrations. The field P status in the Elk Creek watershed is described according to P inputs by land managers, soil characteristics, and sediment and water quality analyses. The watershed is partitioned into contributing areas, and the available P in soils shows an increase in concentration in the downstream direction. The P index ratings also show an increase in vulnerability for P loss from soil to surface waters in the lower part of the watershed. The rankings are in agreement with the intensity of land use, and this is reflected in the increase in predominance of the source factors as the main contributor to the D index ratings. In spite of complex process interaction associated with sediment movement, the stream sediment showed similar trends to the soils and P index ratings. Increases in total P in wet-season stream water at the outlet of the watershed may indicate the downstream cumulative effects predicted by the P index ratings. CR *BRIT COL SOIL SUR, 1962, SOIL MAP CHILL AR BR *USDA NRCS, 2000, 2 USDA NRCS ALBERTS EE, 1981, SOIL SCI SOC AM J, V45, P391 BOWMAN RA, 1989, SOIL SCI SOC AM J, V53, P362 BOWMAN RA, 1993, SOIL SCI SOC AM J, V57, P1516 BRAY RH, 1945, SOIL SCI, V59, P39 BREEUWSMA A, 1995, ANIMAL WASTE LAND WA, P239 BROWN S, 1999, SOIL USE MANAGE, V15, P101 CADEMENUN BJ, 1997, COMMUN SOIL SCI PLAN, V28, P651 CARPENTER SR, 1998, NONPOINT POLLUTION S DERKSEN G, 2004, COMMUNITY WATERSHED EDWARDS AC, 1998, SOIL USE MANAGE S, V14, P124 GBUREK WJ, 1996, ADV HILLSLOPE PROCES GBUREK WJ, 2000, J ENVIRON QUAL, V29, P130 GUERTAL EA, 1991, SOIL SCI SOC AM J, V55, P410 HAGGARD BE, 1999, T ASAE, V42, P1709 HILLBORN D, 2000, DETERMINING PHOSPHOR HOUSE WA, 1998, SOIL USE MANAGE S, V14, P139 LAVKULICH LM, 1978, METHODS MANUAL PEDOL LEMUNYON JL, 1993, J PROD AGRIC, V6, P483 LITKE S, 1997, CHILLIWACK COMMUNITY MARX ES, 1999, SOIL TEST INTERPRETA