FN ISI Export Format VR 1.0 MT MC ER PT J AU Ramos-Mane, C TI Vulnerability and adaptation to climate change in Latin America - Foreword SO CLIMATE RESEARCH LA English DT Editorial Material C1 Comis Nacl Cambio Global, Montevideo 11100, Uruguay. RP Ramos-Mane, C, Comis Nacl Cambio Global, Ciudadela 1414,Piso 6, Montevideo 11100, Uruguay. NR 0 TC 0 J9 CLIMATE RES BP U6 EP U6 PY 1997 PD DEC 29 VL 9 IS 1-2 GA ZD200 UT ISI:000072661400001 ER PT J AU Williams, CA Albertson, JD TI Dynamical effects of the statistical structure of annual rainfall on dryland vegetation SO GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY LA English DT Article C1 Duke Univ, Nicholas Sch Environm & Earth Sci, Durham, NC 27708 USA. RP Williams, CA, Duke Univ, Nicholas Sch Environm & Earth Sci, Durham, NC 27708 USA. AB In this study, we extend a model of daily dryland dynamics by parameterizing a modified version of a minimalistic annual model to examine how the statistical structure of annual rainfall and grazing intensity interact to influence dryland vegetation. With a Monte Carlo approach, an ensemble outcome provides a statistical description of likely dryland vegetation dynamics responding to variations in rainfall structure and grazing intensity. Results suggest that increased rainfall variability decreases the average and increases the variability of grass cover leading to more frequent degradation of the grass resource. Vegetation of drier regions is found to be more sensitive to interannual variability in rainfall. Concentrating this variability into an organized periodic mode further decreases the mean and increases the variability of grass cover. Hence, a shift toward lower, more variable, or more inter-annually correlated annual rainfall will likely lead to a general decrease in the grass resource and increased dryland vulnerability to degradation. Higher grazing intensity or lower annual rainfall both lead to more frequent and longer duration degradation of the grass condition. We note an interesting interaction in the response of grass biomass to grazing intensity and rainfall variability, where increased rainfall variability leads to longer duration degradation for low grazing, but shorter periods of degradation for high grazing. Once grass reaches a degraded condition, we find that woody vegetation strongly suppresses recovery even if successive rainfall is high. Overall, these findings suggest that the projected increase in interannual rainfall variability will likely decrease grass cover and potentially lead to more frequent, longer lasting degradation of dryland vegetation, particularly if enhanced rainfall variability is concentrated in long period (e.g. decadal) modes. 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RP Warren, WA, Ecosocial Anal LLC, POB 9964, Moscow, ID 83843 USA. AB This article argues that hierarchy theory can be used as a conceptual bridge to facilitate analysis of socioecological systems (SES). An SES model is proposed based on a synthesis of structuration theory in sociology and hierarchy theory in ecology. The model is process rather than component based by relating institutional processes with ecological processes at multiple scales. The model also offers a means to conceptually integrate the divide between micro and macro approaches in the fields of environmental and natural resource (E&NR) sociology. 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A response to Epstein and McCarthy SO BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY LA English DT Editorial Material C1 Univ Colorado, CIRES, Boulder, CO 80309 USA. OECD, Environm Directorate, Paris, France. Vrije Univ Amsterdam, Inst Environm Studies, Fac Earth & Life Sci, NL-1081 HV Amsterdam, Netherlands. Univ Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada. Univ Illinois, Champaign, IL 61820 USA. NCAR, Environm & Societal Impacts Grp, Boulder, CO USA. Atmospher Policy Program, AMS, Washington, DC USA. Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res, Potsdam, Germany. Illinois State Water Survey, Ctr Atmospher Sci, Champaign, IL 61820 USA. Univ Colorado, Dept Sociol, Boulder, CO 80309 USA. Arizona State Univ, Tempe, AZ USA. Univ E Anglia, Sch Environm Sci, Tyndall Ctr Climate Change Res, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. Zeppelin Univ, Friedrichshafen, Germany. GKSS Forschungszentrum Geesthacht GmbH, Inst Coastal Res, Geesthacht, Germany. RP Pielke, RA, Univ Colorado, CIRES, Boulder, CO 80309 USA. 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RP Wilson, J, Univ Maine, Dept Forest Management, 5755 Nutting Hall, Orono, ME 04469 USA. AB Managed forested landscapes in the coastal Pacific Northwest follow a pattern of transition from dominance by naturally regenerated second growth to dominance by planted stands. This transition should have dramatic influence on many characteristics of these landscapes and the larger region, including susceptibility to wind damage. In this paper, inventory and spatial information from an example landscape are integrated using the Landscape Management System to produce alternative management scenarios and evaluate the projections using a wind damage vulnerability rating system. Planted Douglas-fir stands tend to develop higher height to diameter ratios in the dominant trees, are thinned more often, and tend to have more exposed windward edges; characteristics which increase susceptibility to wind damage. In this analysis, the increasing vulnerability factors are mostly compensated for by the reduced rotation lengths expected in the plantations. The pattern of transition in managed landscapes generates an associated pattern of vulnerability to wind damage. Homogeneously and heterogeneously aged landscapes have distinct patterns of vulnerability. These differences could be harnessed to enhance the particular goals associated with managing individual ownerships. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 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RP Ellis, F, Univ E Anglia, Sch Dev Studies, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. CR 2005, GUARDIAN 0620 *ETH MIN FIN EC DE, 2002, ETH SUST DEV POV RED *IMF WORLD BANK, 2005, HEAV IND POOR COUNTR *INT FOOD POL RES, 2005, FUT SMALL FARMS P RE *OECD, 2004, 2004 DEV COOP REP OE *WORLD BANK, 1981, ACC DEV SUB SAH AFR BARRETT C, RURAL LIVELIHOODS, P16 BRYCESON D, 1999, REV AFRICAN POLITICA, V26, P171 BRYCESON D, 2000, DISAPPEARING PEASANT BRYCESON D, 2002, WORLD DEV, V30 BRYCESON DF, 1996, WORLD DEV, V24, P97 BRYCESON DF, 1997, RES SERIES AFRICAN S, P3 CHAMBERS R, 1989, IDS B, V20, P1 COOKSEY B, 2005, RURAL LIVELIHOODS PO, P149 DERCON S, 2002, WORLD BANK RES OBSER, V17, P141 DERCON S, 2005, INSURANCE POVERTY UN DERCON S, 2006, P ANN BANK C DEV EC DEVEREUX S, 2002, END FAM 21 CENT C I DEWAAL A, 2003, LANCET, P1234 ELLIS F, 1983, J PEASANT STUD, V10, P214 ELLIS F, 2000, RURAL LIVELIHOODS DI ELLIS F, 2003, WORLD DEV, V31, P1367 ELLIS F, 2004, J DEV STUD, V40, P1 ELLIS, RURAL LIVELIHOODS, P183 ELLIS, 2001, FOOD POLICY, V26, P315 FRANCIS E, 2000, MAKING LIVING CHANGI HYDEN G, 1980, UJAMAA TANZANIA UNDE JAYNE TS, FUTURE SMALL FARMS JAYNE TS, 2003, FOOD POLICY, V28, P253 KRUEGER AO, 1991, POLITICAL EC AGR PRI, V3 NETTING R, 1993, SMALLHOLDERS HOUSHOL REARDON T, 1997, WORLD DEV, V25, P735 REARDON T, 2003, AM J AGR ECON, V85, P1140 SEN AK, 1981, POVERTY FAMINES ESSA, V1, P1 WEATHERSPOON DD, 2003, DEV POLICY REV, V21, P333 NR 35 TC 0 J9 NEW POLIT ECON BP 387 EP 397 PY 2006 PD SEP VL 11 IS 3 GA 090LC UT ISI:000240951800005 ER PT J AU Wright, EL Erickson, JD TI Incorporating catastrophes into integrated assessment: Science, impacts, and adaptation SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Review C1 US EPA, Natl Risk Management Res Lab, Res Triangle Pk, NC 27711 USA. Univ Vermont, Sch Nat Resources, Aiken Ctr 344, Burlington, VT 05405 USA. RP Wright, EL, US EPA, Natl Risk Management Res Lab, Mail Drop E-305-02, Res Triangle Pk, NC 27711 USA. AB Incorporating potential catastrophic consequences into integrated assessment models of climate change has been a top priority of policymakers and modelers alike. We review the current state of scientific understanding regarding three frequently mentioned geophysical catastrophes, with a view toward their implications for integrated assessment modeling. This review finds inadequacies in widespread model assumptions regarding the nature of catastrophes themselves and climate change impacts more generally. The possibility of greatly postponed consequences from near- and medium-term actions suggests that standard discounting practices are inappropriate for the analysis of climate catastrophe. Careful consideration of paleoclimate and geophysical modeling evidence regarding the possibility of changes in ocean circulation suggests a reframing of the source of climate change damages in economic models, placing changes in climate predictability, rather than gradual changes in mean values, at the focus of economic damage assessments. The implications of decreases in predictability for the modeling of adaptation are further discussed. 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RP Melloul, AJ, Waster Commiss, Hydrol Serv, POB 36118, IL-91360 Jerusalem, Israel. AB Groundwater resource management should be integrated with regional land-use planning. The objectives of such planning should respond to regional and long-term design needs, which can maximize human-life quality, achieve a balance between ecological and engineering approaches to land-use alteration, and lead to sustainable groundwater resources. Regional plans should be designed in harmony with natural amenities, restrictions of the environment, and water needs so as to provide adequate rural amenities to urban areas and adequate urban amenities to rural areas. Maximum efficiency of these remediation measures can be attained in urban areas only if hydrological barriers which aim to preserve fresh water resources from pollution are simultaneously emplaced with greenbelts which not only aim to promote ground vegetation and soil stability, but also reduce the input of potential pollutants. Similarly, in rural areas abstraction of fresh groundwater should also be paired with aquifer recharge. From this study it can be stated that only integrated hydrological, environmental, and land-use measures could offset the present malaise of inharmonious land-use, water resources, and socio-economic planning with balanced design needs, in order to achieve integrated urban/rural land-use for sustainable groundwater resources planning. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. CR 1995, DEV HYDROLOGICAL SIT, P199 1996, ISR ENV B, V19, P4 *US EPA, 1985, WA EPA SER, P163 ALBINET M, 1970, B BRGM, V4, P13 ALLER LT, 1985, EPA600285018 ANDERSEN LJ, 1989, ENVIRON GEOL WAT SCI, V13, P39 APPLEYARD S, 1995, HYDROGEOL J, V3, P65 BACHMAT Y, 1990, 690 ISR HYDR SERV, P20 BARBER C, 1996, HYDROGEOL J, V4, P6 BAUM EJ, 1994, GROUNDWATER CONTAMIN, P547 BEAR J, 1979, HYDRAULICS GROUNDWAT, P56 DAGAN G, 1984, ECOL STUD, V47, P271 DAN DH, 1976, 159 ISR MIN AGR DILLON P, 1998, P GROUNDWATER SUSTA, P39 GOLDENBERG LC, 1992, J HYDROL, V138, P53 GOLDENBERG LC, 1993, TRANSPORT POROUS MED, V13, P221 GVIRTZMAN H, 1986, J HYDROL, V87, P267 HOWARD K, 1996, HYDROGEOL J, V4, P64 KANAREK A, 1990, GROUNDWATER RECHARGE KANFI Y, 1989, POTENTIAL OIL POLLUT KANFI Y, 1995, PUMPING MONITORING W LERNER DN, 1997, GROUNDWATER URBAN EN, P41 LYON TL, 1952, NATURE PROPERTIES SO MCHARG IL, 1969, DESIGN NATURE MELLOUL A, 1991, BIOSPHERE J, V20, P12 MELLOUL AJ, 1994, IAHS PUB, V220, P95 MELLOUL AJ, 1994, ISRAEL J EARTH SCI, V43, P105 MELLOUL AJ, 1998, J ENVIRON MANAGE, V54, P131 MELLOUL AJ, 1999, WATER IRRIGATION J, V391, P30 MELLOUL AJ, 2000, HYDROLOG SCI J, V45, P147 MERCHANT JW, 1994, PHOTOGRAMM ENG REM S, V60, P1117 MEYBECK M, 1990, GLOBAL FRESH WATER Q MITCHELL DJ, 1989, J BEHAVIORAL DECISIO, V2, P25 MUSZKAT L, 1989, P 4 IT C ISR SOC EC, P471 NAVEHZ, 1997, ISR ENV B, V20, P21 ORNI E, 1996, ISRAEL PROGRAM SCI T PARFIT W, 1993, NATL GEOGR NOV PRETTY JN, 1996, OUR PLANET, V8, P19 ROBERTS D, 1992, NATL GEOGR, V182, P46 ROBINS N, 1994, HYDROGEOLOGIE, V3, P35 RONEN D, 1986, WATER RESOUR RES, V22, P1217 RUNDQUIST DC, 1991, STATEWIDE GROUNDWATE, P51 SCHULTZ GA, 1995, P BOULD S IASH, P31 SECUNDA S, 1909, COMPOSITE DRASTIC LA, P35 SOTORNIKOVA R, 1987, P INT C VULN SOIL GR, P471 TIMOTHY E, 1997, PROBLEMS PROCESSES M, V1, P577 TOLMACH Y, 1979, HYDROGEOLOGICAL ATLA, P70 VANDENBRINK C, 1993, C GROUNDW QUAL MAN T, P2 VANHOUTE E, 1998, P GROUNDWATER SUSTAI, P93 ZOLLER U, 1998, WATER RES, V32, P1779 NR 50 TC 0 J9 J CLEAN PROD BP 727 EP 736 PY 2003 VL 11 IS 7 GA 676HF UT ISI:000182744700003 ER PT J AU Grunzweig, JM Sparrow, SD Yakir, D Chapin, FS TI Impact of agricultural land-use change on carbon storage in boreal Alaska SO GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY LA English DT Article C1 Weizmann Inst Sci, Dept Environm Sci & Energy Res, IL-76100 Rehovot, Israel. Univ Alaska, Inst Arctic Biol, Fairbanks, AK 99775 USA. Univ Alaska, Agr & Forestry Expt Stn, Fairbanks, AK 99775 USA. RP Grunzweig, JM, Weizmann Inst Sci, Dept Environm Sci & Energy Res, IL-76100 Rehovot, Israel. AB Climate warming is most pronounced at high latitudes, which could result in the intensification of the extensively cultivated areas in the boreal zone and could further enhance rates of forest clearing in the coming decades. Using paired forest-field sampling and a chronosequence approach, we investigated the effect of conversion of boreal forest to agriculture on carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) dynamics in interior Alaska. Chronosequences showed large soil C losses during the first two decades following deforestation, with mean C stocks in agricultural soils being 44% or 8.3 kg m(-2) lower than C stocks in original forest soils. This suggests that soil C losses from land-use change in the boreal region may be greater than those in other biomes. Analyses of changes in stable C isotopes and in quality of soil organic matter showed that organic C was lost from soils by combustion of cleared forest material, decomposition of organic matter and possibly erosion. Chronosequences indicated an increase in C storage during later decades after forest clearing, with 60-year-old grassland showing net ecosystem C gain of 2.1 kg m(-2) over the original forest. This increase in C stock resulted probably from a combination of large C inputs from belowground biomass and low C losses due to a small original forest soil C stock and low tillage frequency. Reductions in soil N stocks caused by land-use change were smaller than reductions in C stocks (34% or 0.31 kg m(-2)), resulting in lower C/N ratios in field compared with forest mineral soils, despite the occasional incorporation of high-C forest-floor material into field soils. Carbon mineralization per unit of mineralized N was considerably higher in forests than in fields, which could indicate that decomposition rates are more sensitive in forest soils than in field soils to inorganic N addition (e.g. by increased N deposition from the atmosphere). If forest conversion to agriculture becomes more widespread in the boreal region, the resulting C losses (51% or 11.2 kg m(-2) at the ecosystem level in this study) will induce a positive feedback to climatic warming and additional land-use change. However, by selecting relatively C-poor soils and by implementing management practices that preserve C, losses of C from soils can be reduced. 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RP GORE, C, UNCTAD,DIV LEAST DEV COUNTRIES,GENEVA,SWITZERLAND. AB This article examines the conceptual basis and analytical deployment of Sen's entitlement analysis in ethics and economics, focusing on the rules of entitlement. Sen specifies the rules of entitlement in different ways in his work, ignores how legal rules work in practice and downplays the way in which socially enforced moral rules constrain and enable entitlement. The appropriateness of Sen's approach for the analysis of hunger and famine and for the philosophical arguments which Sen makes are assessed, and an alternative view of the rules of entitlement is suggested. This draws in particular on the literature on the moral economy of provisioning. 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RP Naess, LO, CICERO, POB 1129 Blindern, NO-0318 Oslo, Norway. AB The article examines the role institutions play in climate adaptation in Norway. Using examples from two municipalities in the context of institutional responses to floods, we find, first, that the institutional framework for flood management in Norway gives weak incentives for proactive local flood management. Second, when strong local political and economic interests coincide with national level willingness to pay and provide support, measures are often carried out rapidly at the expense of weaker environmental interests. Third, we find that new perspectives on flood management are more apparent at the national than the municipal level, as new perspectives are filtered by local power structures. The findings have important implications for vulnerability and adaptation to climate change in terms of policy options and the local level as the optimal level for adaptation. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *DSB, 2003, HVA LAERT VI FLOMM 1 *GOV NORW, 1995, 37 GOV NORW *GOV NORW, 1996, 42 GOV NORW *HEINZ CTR, 2002, HUM LINKS COAST DIS *MIN ENV MIN LOC G, 1997, T597 MIN ENV MIN LOC *NIVA, 1996, FLOMM OSTL VAR 1995 *NOU, 1996, TILT MOT FLOM *NVE, 1999, RETN AR SIKR FLOM OM AALL C, 2003, 32003 W NORW RES I ADGER WN, 2000, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V90, P738 ADGER WN, 2000, PROG HUM GEOG, V24, P347 BACHRACH P, 1962, AM POLIT SCI REV, V56, P947 BAKKER K, 1999, 3 SIRCH U OXF ENV CH BERKES F, 1998, LINKING SOCIAL ECOLO, V1, P1 BERKES F, 2002, DRAMA COMMONS BJORNAES T, 2001, LOKALE MILJO BAEREKR BLAIKIE PM, 1994, RISK NATURAL HAZARDS, V1, P1 BRAENNE J, 1995, BEFARING RADGIVNING BROWN JD, 2002, T I BRIT GEOGR, V27, P412 BURTON I, 2002, CLIM POLICY, V2, P145 CASH DW, 2000, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V10, P109 CUTTER SL, 1993, LIVING RISK CUTTER SL, 2003, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V93, P1 DAHL RA, 1961, WHO GOVERNS DEMOCRAC EIKENAES O, 2000, FLOMMEN KOMMER EIKENAES O, 2000, LEVE MED FLAUM FLAA P, 1985, INNFORING ORGANISASJ GLANTZ M, 1989, FORECASTING ANALOGY HINDAR K, 1996, EFFEKTER FLOMMEN 199 LISO KR, 2003, BUILD RES INF, V31, P200 LIVERMAN DM, 2002, CLIMATE RES, V21, P199 LUKES S, 1974, POWER RADICAL VIEW LUNDQUIST D, 1996, FLOMMEN 1995 GLOMM L MILLER KA, 1997, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V35, P157 MORROW BH, 1999, DISASTERS, V24, P1 NAESS LO, IN PRESS I ADAPTATIO NYE JS, 1987, INT ORGAN, V41, P371 OBRIEN KL, 2004, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V64, P193 OLSSON P, 2001, ECOSYSTEMS, V4, P85 OYGARDEN L, 1996, FLOMMEN 1995 SKADER QUARANTELLI EL, 1987, INT J MASS EMERGENCI, V5, P7 RATTSO J, 2003, FISCAL DECENTRALIZAT SKURDAL J, 2000, GLOMMA LAAGEN RIVER SMIT B, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, CH18 TOL RSJ, 2003, RISK ANAL, V23, P575 UNDERDAL A, 1998, EUR J INT RELAT, V4, P5 VAYDA AP, 1999, HUM ECOL, V27, P167 WILBANKS TJ, 1999, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V43, P601 WILBANKS TJ, 2002, INTEGRATED ASSESSMEN, V3, P100 YIN R, 1994, CASE STUDY RES DESIG YOHE GW, 2002, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V12, P25 YOUNG O, 1998, 9 IHDP NR 52 TC 6 J9 GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANGE BP 125 EP 138 PY 2005 PD JUL VL 15 IS 2 GA 931VR UT ISI:000229514100006 ER PT J AU Satterfield, TA Mertz, CK Slovic, P TI Discrimination, vulnerability, and justice in the face of risk SO RISK ANALYSIS LA English DT Article C1 Univ British Columbia, Fac Grad Studies, Inst Resources Environm & Sustainabil, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z3, Canada. Dec Res, Eugene, OR USA. RP Satterfield, TA, Univ British Columbia, Fac Grad Studies, Inst Resources Environm & Sustainabil, 2206 E Mall,Rm 472, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z3, Canada. AB Recent research finds that perceived risk is closely associated with race and gender. In surveys of the American public, a subset of white males stand out for their uniformly low perceptions of environmental health risks, while most nonwhite and nonmale respondents reveal higher perceived risk. Such findings have been attributed to the advantageous position of white males in American social life. This article explores the linked possibility that this demographic pattern is driven not simply by the social advantages or disadvantages embodied in race or gender, but by the subjective experience of vulnerability and by sociopolitical evaluations pertaining to environmental injustice. Indices of environmental (in)justice and social vulnerability were developed as part of a U.S. National Risk Survey (n = 1,192) in order to examine their effect on perceived risk. It was found that those who regarded themselves as vulnerable and supported belief statements consistent with the environmental justice thesis offered higher risk ratings across a range of hazards. Multivariate analysis indicates that our measures of vulnerability and environmental (in)justice predict perceived risk but do not account for all of the effects of race and gender. The article closes with a discussion of the implications of these findings for further work on vulnerability and risk, risk communication, and risk management practices generally. CR *AG TOX SUBST DIS, 1995, CAS STUD ENV MED LEA BECK U, 1992, RISK SOC NEW MODERNI BECK U, 1999, WORLD RISK SOC BELLINGER D, 1987, NEW ENGL J MED, V316, P1037 BORD RJ, 1997, SOCIAL SCI Q, V78, P831 BULLARD RD, 1990, DUMPING DIXIE RACE C CAPEK SM, 1993, SOC PROBL, V40, P5 DAVIDSON D, 1997, ENVIRON BEHAV, V28, P302 DEVELLIS RF, 1991, SCALE DEV THEORY APP FINUCANE ML, 2000, HEALTH RISK SOC, V2, P159 FLYNN J, 1994, RISK ANAL, V14, P1101 GRAHAM JD, 1999, RISK ANAL, V19, P171 GREENBERG MR, 1993, RISK ISSUES HLTH SAF, V235, P235 GREENBERG MR, 1995, RISK ANAL, V15, P503 GUSTAFSON PE, 1998, RISK ANAL, V18, P805 GUTTELING JM, 1993, SEX ROLES, V28, P433 JOHNSON BB, 2002, RISK ANAL, V22, P725 JONES EE, 1984, SOCIAL STIGMA PSYCHO JONES RE, 1998, SOC NATUR RESOUR, V11, P209 KALOF L, 2002, RACE GENDER CLASS, V9, P1 KRAUS N, 1992, RISK ANAL, V12, P215 LESTER J, 2001, ENV JUSTICE US MYTHS MOHAI P, 1998, PUBLIC OPIN QUART, V62, P475 NEEDLEMAN HL, 1990, NEW ENGL J MED, V322, P83 SATTERFIELD TA, 2001, RISK MEDIA STIGMA UN, P69 SEXTON K, 1993, TOXICOL IND HEALTH, V9, P679 SLOVIC P, 1979, ENVIRONMENT, V21, P14 SLOVIC P, 1979, ENVIRONMENT, V21, P36 SLOVIC P, 1987, SCIENCE, V236, P280 SLOVIC P, 1992, SOCIAL THEORIES RISK, P117 SLOVIC P, 1999, RISK ANAL, V19, P689 SROLE L, 1956, AM SOCIOL REV, V21, P709 STERN PC, 1993, ENVIRON BEHAV, V25, P322 SZASZ A, 1994, ECOPOPULISM TOXIC WA, V1 TAYLOR DE, 2000, AM BEHAV SCI, V43, P508 VAUGHAN E, 1995, RISK ANAL, V15, P169 WATTS MJ, 1993, PROG HUM GEOG, V17, P43 ZIMMERMAN R, 1993, RISK ANAL, V13, P649 NR 38 TC 0 J9 RISK ANAL BP 115 EP 129 PY 2004 PD FEB VL 24 IS 1 GA 779PH UT ISI:000189308900010 ER PT J AU Baethgen, WE TI Vulnerability of the agricultural sector of Latin America to climate change SO CLIMATE RESEARCH LA English DT Article C1 Int Fertilizer Dev Ctr Latin Amer, Montevideo, Uruguay. RP Baethgen, WE, Int Fertilizer Dev Ctr Latin Amer, Javier Barrios Amorin 870,Piso 3, Montevideo, Uruguay. AB The vulnerability of the agricultural sector in any region to future possible climate-change scenarios is determined to a great extent by the vulnerability of the sector to current climatic, economic and policy scenarios. Agricultural systems which are currently subject to extreme climatic interannual variability (drought, flood, storms, etc.) are likely to become even more vulnerable under the most commonly expected scenarios of climate change (i.e. increased temperatures, increased rainfall variability). Similarly, agricultural systems which are currently subject to drastic changes in economic and policy scenarios are also prone to become more vulnerable under expected climate-change conditions. The agricultural sector of Latin America has been subject to important variations in economical conditions and policies. These conditions have affected the structure of agricultural production, and resulted in a large reduction of the number of small farmers, who have migrated to poor metropolitan areas. Even for larger, commercial farmers, unstable and often inconsistent agricultural policies have increased the vulnerability of the sector. Additionally, large areas of Latin America are already affected by current interannual climatic variability related to the length of rainy seasons and the occurrence of extreme events (droughts, floods, etc.). The few studies conducted in the region to specifically assess the impact of climate change on agriculture have revealed expected reductions and increased variability in crop productivity. Similar results should be expected in the vast regions devoted to livestock production, since the systems are based on a fragile balance of nutrients, available water, stocking rates and pasture species. The characteristics of the current situation described in this article demonstrate the vulnerability of Latin American agriculture to climate change. Preparing the agricultural sector to mitigate the potential negative effects of climate change will require strong and consistent efforts in both the scientific and policy sectors of the region. CR *CEPAL, 1993, STAT YB LAT AM CAR *FAO, 1992, STAT FOOD AGR *IBSNAT, 1989, DEC SUPP SYST AGR TR *IPCC, 1990, CLIM CHANG IPCC SCI *WORLD BANK, 1986, WORLD DEV REP 1986 ACOCK B, 1985, DIRECT EFFECTS INCRE BAETHGEN WE, 1994, ACAPULCO, V9, P300 BAETHGEN WE, 1994, IMPLICATIONS CLIMATE BAETHGEN WE, 1995, ASA SPEC PUBL, V59, P207 CURE JD, 1985, DIRECT EFFECTS INCRE HANSEN J, 1983, MON WEATHER REV, V111, P609 HANSEN J, 1988, J GEOPHYS RES, V93, P9341 LIVERMAN DM, 1994, IMPLICATIONS CLIMATE MANABE S, 1987, J ATMOS SCI, V44, P1601 PARRY ML, 1988, IMPACT CLIMATIC VARI, V1 ROSENZWEIG C, 1994, IMPLICATIONS CLIMATE SALA OE, 1994, IMPLICATIONS CLIMATE SIQUEIRA OJ, 1994, IMPLICATIONS CLIMATE WIGGINS S, 1991, DEV WORLD AGR, P34 WILSON CA, 1987, J GEOPHYS RES-ATMOSP, V92, P13315 NR 20 TC 2 J9 CLIMATE RES BP 1 EP 7 PY 1997 PD DEC 29 VL 9 IS 1-2 GA ZD200 UT ISI:000072661400002 ER PT J AU Parasuraman, S Unnikrishnan, PV TI Disaster response in India: An overview SO INDIAN JOURNAL OF SOCIAL WORK LA English DT Article AB 'Act of God' or 'Act of Man', a mind boggling spectrum of disasters wreak havoc in the Indian subcontinent. Disasters are a shared reality spanning individuals, villages, blocks, districts, states, nations and even regions, and have to be responded to with a multi-pronged approach. About 211 million people are affected by 'natural' disasters every year. According,to the World Disasters Report, two-thirds of the people affected are from countries with low human development index (International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent, 2001). Experts note that the poorest are becoming more exposed to disaster risks. Political insensitivity, increasing poverty, climatic change and globalisation are the major factors that amplifies the vulnerability and impacts of disasters. Disasters set back the development process by decades. CR *EARTHSC, 1998, INT DISPL PEOPL GLOB *INT FED RED CROSS, 1998, WORLD DIS REP 1998 *INT FED RED CROSS, 1999, WORLD DIS REP 1999 *INT FED RED CROSS, 2001, WORLD DIS REP 2001 FERNANDES W, 1997, REHABILITATION LAW I HAQ M, 1997, HUMAN DEV S ASIA PARASURAMAN S, 2000, INDIA DISASTERS REPO NR 7 TC 0 J9 INDIAN J SOC WORK BP 151 EP 172 PY 2002 PD APR VL 63 IS 2 GA 770MK UT ISI:000188734400002 ER PT J AU Fath, BD Beek, MB TI Elucidating public perceptions of environmental behavior: a case study of Lake Lanier SO ENVIRONMENTAL MODELLING & SOFTWARE LA English DT Article C1 Towson State Univ, Dept Biol, Towson, MD 21252 USA. Univ Georgia, Warnell Sch Forest Resources, Athens, GA 30602 USA. RP Fath, BD, Towson State Univ, Dept Biol, Towson, MD 21252 USA. AB Participation of stakeholders in stewardship of the aquatic environment, including participation front members of the general public, has become much more widespread than was the case a decade or so ago. With this shift. front a former predominantly technocratic stance to something of a democratic stance on the style of management, it becomes important to elucidate public perceptions of environmental behavior. The paper examines this issue: from a rather specific perspective. where the role of time is significant; with a specific purpose in mind-for defining illustrative stakeholder aspirations for the future. whose plausibility is to Eke assessed against a computational model of lake behavior; and for a specific case study. Lake Lanier in the Chattahoochee watershed of Georgia, USA. Perturbations and variation in the behavior of the aquatic environment span many time frames from the very short-term response associated with storms, infrastructure failure, transient pollution events. and so on. to the much longer-term. for instance, the biogeochemical 'ageing' of a lake over manly decades and more. Our analysis is devoted to data front a survey of stakeholder imagination and perceptions of how the future state of Lake Lanier may evolve in the relatively short term (2-5 years) and in the long term, defined as 25+ years (the span of a generation). Overall, stakeholders are pessimistic and fear that things will be worse in the longer term. Guided largely by thinking on the perspectives of the social solidarities of Cultural Theory. extraction and analysis of sub-samples of the survey responses show that this outlook over the two frames of time is persistent, irrespective of what are, in principle, rather different 'global' attitudes towards the man-environment relationship. Of interest inter alia to the foresight generating procedure,. by which the 'reachability' of stakeholder-derived futures for the lake is to be assessed using a computational model of the relevant parts of the science base, is the question of whether the same small number of priorities for further research on lake behavior is robust in the face of the rich variety of aspirations for the future inevitable in a democratic community of stakeholders. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *LIMN TECH INC, 1998, DEV LINK WAT WAT QUA *OECD, 2002, HDB BIOD VAL GUID PO BECK MB, 2002, ENV FORESIGHT MODELS BECK MB, 2002, ENV FORESIGHT MODELS, P207 BECK MB, 2002, INTEGRATED ASSESSMEN, V3, P299 BECK MB, 2004, IN PRESS ENV MODELLI COWIE GM, 2004, IN PRESS ENV MODELLI DAKE K, 1991, J CROSS CULT PSYCHOL, V22, P61 DAKE K, 1992, J SOC ISSUES, V48, P21 DARIER E, 1999, J ENV POLICY PLANNIN, V1, P103 DEMARCHI B, 1998, ULYSSES VOYAGE ULYSS DOUGLAS M, 1982, RISK CULTURE ESSAY S DOUGLAS M, 2003, DEADALUS, V132, P98 GRENDSTAD G, 2000, RISK ANAL, V20, P27 HATCHER KJ, 1994, DIAGNOSTIC FEASIBILI HOFSTETTER P, 1998, PERSPECTIVES LIFE CY HOFSTETTER P, 2000, INT J LCA, V5, P161 HORNBERGER GM, 1980, WATER RES, V14, P29 JANSSEN MA, 1998, ECOL ECON, V26, P43 JANSSEN MA, 1999, MANAGING REILIENCE L KASEMIR B, HANDBOOK KATES RW, 2001, SCIENCE, V292, P641 KORFMACHER KS, 2001, ENVIRON MANAGE, V27, P161 KUNDELL J, 1998, DIAGNOSTIC FEASIBILI KUNDELL J, 1998, DIAGNOSTIC FEASIBLIT MAGUIRE LA, 2003, J WATER RES PL-ASCE, V129, P261 MARRIS C, 1996, 9607 CSERGE GEC MARRIS C, 1998, RISK ANAL, V18, P635 MOSTERT E, 2003, WATER POLICY, V5, P179 OSIDELE OO, 2001, THESIS U GEORGIA ATH OSIDELE OO, 2004, ECOL MODEL, V173, P129 OSIDELE OO, 2004, IN PRESS INTEGRATED PAHLWOSTL C, 2000, INTEGR ASSESS, V1, P267 PAHLWOSTL C, 2004, IN PRESS ENV MODELLI PALMER CGS, 1996, RISK ANAL, V16, P717 PEREIRA AG, 1999, INT J ENVIRON POLLUT, V11, P266 PEREIRA AG, 2001, VISIONS ADVENTURES F PFEIFER S, 2001, MANAGEMENT, V6, P89 PLEAU M, 2004, IN PRESS ENV MODELLI PRICE MF, 1997, GLOBAL ECOL BIOGEOGR, V6, P77 RAYNER S, 1992, SOCIAL THEORIES RISK REES W, 1996, ENVIRON IMPACT ASSES, V16, P223 SCHLUMPF C, 2001, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V51, P199 SPEAR RC, 1980, WATER RES, V14, P43 THOMPSON M, 1990, CULTURAL THEORY THOMPSON M, 1997, ENVIRON MODEL ASSESS, V2, P139 VANASSELT MBA, 1996, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V6, P121 VANROLLEGHEM PA, 2004, IN PRESS ENV MODELLI WEITZMAN ML, 1998, J ENVIRON ECON MANAG, V36, P201 WILDAVSKY A, 1990, DAEDALUS, V119, P41 YOUNG PC, 1978, P SIMSIG SIM C AUSTR, P24 NR 51 TC 4 J9 ENVIRON MODELL SOFTW BP 485 EP 498 PY 2005 PD APR VL 20 IS 4 GA 888UH UT ISI:000226399200009 ER PT J AU Turvey, R TI Vulnerability assessment of developing countries: The case of small-island developing states SO DEVELOPMENT POLICY REVIEW LA English DT Article C1 Nipissing Univ, Dept Geog & Geol, Fac Arts & Sci, N Bay, ON P1B 8L7, Canada. RP Turvey, R, Nipissing Univ, Dept Geog & Geol, Fac Arts & Sci, 100 Coll Dr,POB 5002, N Bay, ON P1B 8L7, Canada. AB This article puts forward a spatial perspective in framing the methodology for vulnerability assessment (VA) of developing countries, with special reference to small-island developing states (SIDS). Geographic vulnerability from a developing-world perspective is defined by the country's susceptibility to physical and human pressures, risks and hazards in temporal and spatial contexts. In constructing the composite vulnerability index (CVI), four core indicators are selected as sub-indices. The study confirms the vulnerability of SIDS based on four dimensions, namely, coastal index (G1), peripherality index (G2), urbanisation indicator (G3) and vulnerability to natural disasters (G4), and advocates consideration of place vulnerability and temporal distinctions when assessing the vulnerability of SIDS in particular. CR *COMM SECR, 1997, FUT SMALL STAT OV VU *EARTHW, 1999, ISL DIR *ECOSOC, 1999, REP DEV POL *ESCAP, 1995, STAT ENV REP AS PAC *UN ECOSOC COMM DE, 1999, ECOSOC S, V13 *UN ENV PROGR, 1999, PROBL SMALL ISL ENV *UN, 1994, GLOB C SUST DEV SMAL *UN, 1995, STAT POP *UN, 1997, ESCAP REP IND SUST D *UN, 1997, IND SUST DEV ISD PRO *UN, 1999, IND SUST DEV ISD PRO *UNCSD, 1998, REP SECR GEN DEV VUL *UNCTAD, 1994, HDB INT TRAD DEV STA *UNCTAD, 1995, HDB INT TRAD DEV STA *UNCTAD, 1998, LEAST DEV COUNTR 199 *UNCTAD, 1999, HDB INT TRAD DEV STA *UNCTAD, 2003, TRAD ENV REV *UNCTAD, 2004, SPEC TREATM SMALL IS *UNEP, 1994, EARTHW ISL DIR *WORLD BANK, 1999, WORLD DEV REP 1999 2 *WORLD FOOD PROGR, 1996, WFP VULN MAPP GUID *WORLD RES I, 1995, ENV IND SYST APPR ME BRIGUGLIO L, 1995, WORLD DEV, V23, P1615 BROOKFIELD HC, 1990, 13 MAB UNESCO CUTTER SL, 1996, PROG HUM GEOG, V20, P529 DAHL A, 1991, ISLAND DIRECTORY DOW KM, 1992, GEOFORUM, V23, P417 DOWNING TE, 1996, NATO ASI SERIES, V37 HESS A, 1990, SUSTAINABLE DEV ENV HEWITT K, 1971, RES PUBLICATION U TO, V6 KALY U, 1999, 275 SOPAC KAY R, 1993, VULNERABILITY ASSESS KNOX P, 2004, HUMAN GEOGRAPHY PLAC MCCLEAN RC, 1980, 13 MAB UNESCO NEWITT K, 1997, REGIONS RISK GEOGRAP NUNN P, 1994, OEANIC ISLANDS NURSE LA, 1998, REGIONAL IMPACTS CLI PERNETTA JC, 1992, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V2, P19 PERNETTA JC, 1992, OCEAN COAST MANAGE, V18, P113 ROBSON C, 1993, REAL WORLD RES RESOU TURNER I, 1996, APPL MATH MODEL, V20, P2 VELASQUEZ GT, 1999, CITIES ENV NEW APPRO WATSON RT, 1998, REGIONAL IMPACTS CLI, V1, P1 WATTS MJ, 1993, PROG HUM GEOG, V17, P43 WILKINSON CR, 1994, GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANG WISNER B, 1993, WORLD PAIN HUNGER GE NR 46 TC 0 J9 DEV POLICY REV BP 243 EP 264 PY 2007 PD MAR VL 25 IS 2 GA 137DQ UT ISI:000244273600005 ER PT J AU GARDNER, PD CORTNER, HJ WIDAMAN, K TI THE RISK PERCEPTIONS AND POLICY RESPONSE TOWARD WILDLAND FIRE HAZARDS BY URBAN HOME-OWNERS SO LANDSCAPE AND URBAN PLANNING LA English DT Article C1 UNIV ARIZONA,SCH RENEWABLE NAT RESOURCES,TUCSON,AZ 85721. UNIV CALIF RIVERSIDE,DEPT PSYCHOL,RIVERSIDE,CA 92521. RP GARDNER, PD, ROBERT HOTALING & ASSOCIATES,POB 304,HASLETT,MI 48840. CR *CA DEP FOR, 1980, FIR SAF GUID RES DEV *CA STAT, 1981, REC RED RISK WILDL F BAKER EJ, 1977, LAND USE MANAGEMENT BRIDGES J, 1983, THESIS U CALIFORNIA BURTON I, 1964, NAT RESOUR J, V3, P412 BURTON I, 1978, ENV HAZARD, V1, P1 CORTNER HJ, 1984, J FOREST, V82, P359 GARDNER PD, 1984, STUDY IMPACTS SEVERE HEWITT K, 1971, HAZARDOUSNESS PLACE HOUTS RH, 1971, WILDLAND FIRE PLANNI HULBERT J, 1972, AM FOR, V78, P24 KATES R, 1962, DEP GEOGRAPHY RES PA, V78 MEIER RL, 1979, PSW35 USDA FOR SERV MILETI RA, 1975, NATURAL HAZARD WARNI PETAK WJ, 1982, NATURAL HAZARD RISK RUMMEL RJ, 1970, APPLIED FACTOR ANAL WALSH BW, 1985, J FOR, V83, P397 WHITE GF, 1975, ASSESSMENT RES NATUR, V1, P1 NR 18 TC 6 J9 LANDSCAPE URBAN PLAN BP 163 EP 172 PY 1987 PD JUL VL 14 IS 2 GA J7754 UT ISI:A1987J775400007 ER PT J AU Darwish, T Atallah, T El Moujabber, M Khatib, N TI Salinity evolution and crop response to secondary soil salinity in two agro-climatic zones in Lebanon SO AGRICULTURAL WATER MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article C1 Natl Council Sci Res, Natl Ctr Remote Sensing, Beirut, Lebanon. Lebanese Univ, Fac Agr Sci, Kashk, Lebanon. Holy Spirit Univ, Beirut, Lebanon. RP Darwish, T, Natl Council Sci Res, Natl Ctr Remote Sensing, Beirut, Lebanon. AB This paper reviews the human impact on land degradation through the integrated effect of fertilization and irrigation on secondary salinization for the different cropping patterns and agroclimatic zones of Lebanon. Agricultural operations in the semiarid northern areas of Lebanon are characterized by intensive open field and low tunnel production, Soil degradation has occurred because of the combined effect of mismanaged crop rotation, poor fertilization and irrigation policies. Monoculture and other agricultural practices caused salt accumulation in the soil (9.0 ds/m). which was then deserted after several years of exploitation. Under and Mediterranean climate. these practices increased the vulnerability of an already fragile ecosystem. Because of water shortage, farmers relied on drip irrigation despite higher investment cost, although, the deterioration of soil quality was associated with the use of drip irrigation. The monitoring of soil quality indicated a Self-recovery after several years of fallowing or a switch to a barley-baled rotation. Instead of enhancing water use efficiency and properly managing the fertigation system, a replacement of drip by sprinklers is practiced. This is an indication that the introduction of modern irrigation systems is not sufficient. an improvement of agricultural practices and an upgrading of farmer's, skills are required. Along the subhumid coastal strip, the area of greenhouses has expanded to 50(X) ha. It is (lie most intensive cropping system in the country with a manure input reaching 60 t ha(-1) added every 2 years and fertilizer input exceeding 180(1 kg hit I of compound soluble and low-solubility fertilizers per season. Consequently, secondary soil salinity has reached 15-20 dS/m. A six-fold increase of soil salinity inside the greenhouses in comparison with the soil outside them was observed. A 5-year monitoring of the status of groundwater and soil on the Lebanese coast showed that the deterioration of soil quality is also linked to the mismanagement of fertilizer input and irrigation with low quality waters. Several zones are irrigated with well water which was subjected to seawater intrusion. In the southern coastal region, water salinity fluctuated around 3 dS/m. In regularly sampled wells, the chlorine content explained only 12% of the variation in total salinity of irrigation water (ECw). ECw explained 34% of soil salinity (ECe). Indeed, the level of ECw cannot justify the extent and seasonal fluctuation of ECe, which showed a peak of 50 dS/m. Replacing drip by sprinklers is not the proper solution in an area with severe shortage in fresh water. Instead, improving the management of water and nutrients inputs and increasing their use efficiency is a necessary step to conserve the limited natural resources in the country. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. CR 1995, W FERTILIZER HDB *FAO, 2000, UTFLEB016 FAO ABROL IP, 1988, FAO SOIL B, V39 ATALLAH T, 2000, CAH AGR, V9, P135 ATALLAH T, 2000, LEB SCI J, V1, P27 ATALLAH T, 2002, WATER BALANCE FERTIG, P41 AYERS RS, 1985, 29 FAO UN BARYOSEF B, 1999, ADV AGRON, V65, P1 DARWISH T, 1995, IMPLEMENTATION PERSP, P207 DARWISH T, 2002, P T 17 WORLD C SOIL DARWISH T, 2003, NUTR CYCL AGROECOSYS, V67, P1 EDMUNDS WM, 1998, ISOTOPE TECHNIQUES S, P503 ELKHATIB N, 1998, P INT S AR REG SOIL, P136 ELMOUJABBER M, 2002, ACTA HORTIC, V573, P195 HAMZE M, 1991, P EXP CONS FERT CHEM, P253 JOHNSTON A, 1997, P REG WORKSH INT POT, P11 KAFKAFI U, 1994, ISRAEL J PLANT SCI, V42, P301 KAHLOWN MA, 2003, AGR WATER MANAGE, V62, P127 KARAM F, 1998, ACTA HORTIC, V458, P89 LAMOUROUX M, 1968, B SERV CARTOGR GEOL, V20, P277 LEVY GJ, 1999, J ENVIRON QUAL, V28, P1658 NIMAH M, 1992, P NAT SEM WAT RES LE PAPADOPOULOS I, 1999, PLANT NUTR MANAGEMEN, P3 QADIR M, 2003, SCI TOTAL ENVIRON, V223, P1 RADER LF, 1943, SOIL SCI, V55, P201 RICHARDS LA, 1969, AGR HDB USDA, V60 RYAN J, 1996, SOIL PLANT ANAL MANU SALAME SJ, 1989, AGDPLEB86005 FAO SHAMMAS A, 1973, LEB506 IAEA SHAMMAS A, 1973, SERIE SCI MAGON AGR, V52 SOLH M, 1987, LEB SCI B, V3, P5 TARCHITZKY J, 1997, P REG WORKSH INT POT, P78 TINGWU L, 2003, WATER RES MANAGE, V6, P395 VERHEYE W, 1968, PEDOLOGIE, V18, P253 NR 34 TC 2 J9 AGR WATER MANAGE BP 152 EP 164 PY 2005 PD SEP 15 VL 78 IS 1-2 GA 966QV UT ISI:000232036800013 ER PT J AU Prudham, S TI Poisoning the well: neoliberalism and the contamination of municipal water in Walkerton, Ontario SO GEOFORUM LA English DT Article C1 Univ Toronto, Program Planning, Dept Geog, Toronto, ON M5S 3G3, Canada. Univ Toronto, Inst Environm Studies, Toronto, ON M5S 3G3, Canada. RP Prudham, S, Univ Toronto, Program Planning, Dept Geog, 100 St George St,Room 5028,Sidney Smith Hall, Toronto, ON M5S 3G3, Canada. AB In May of 2000, thousands of residents of the town of Walkerton, Ontario became ill from drinking municipal water contaminated by Eschcrichia coli and Campylobacter jejuni bacteria. Seven people died, while many suffered debilitating injuries. A highly unusual and risk prone local hydrological regime, coupled with manure spreading on farms near municipal wells, and lax oversight by municipal water utility officials, were quickly blamed by Ontario government figures, including then premier Mike Hart-is. However, the scandal surrounding Walkerton's tragedy and a subsequent public inquiry into the incident also implicated neoliberal reforms of environmental governance introduced by Harris's government subsequent to its election in 1995. This paper examines the Walkerton incident as an important example of a "normal accident" of neoliberalism, one that can be expected from neoliberal environmental regulatory reforms arising from systematic irresponsibility in environmental governance. This irresponsibility is promulgated by an overarching hostility to any regulatory interference with free markets, as well as specific regulatory gaps that produce environmental risks. The paper also serves as a case study of the extent to which neoliberalism is constituted by environmental governance reform, and conversely, how environmental governance reform is reconfigured as part of the emergent neoliberal mode of social regulation. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *COMM ENV COOP, 2002, TAK STOCK 1999 N AM *MIN ASS CAN, 2003, FACTS FIG 2002 *ONT MIN AGR FOOD, 2001, LIV POULTR STAT *STAT CAN, 2001, NUMB CATTL FARMS CLA, P1050 ADKIN LE, 1998, POLITICS SUSTAINABLE ALTVATER E, 1993, FUTURE MARKET ESSAY BEAULIEU MS, 2001, INTENSIVE LIVESTOCK BECK U, 1992, RISK SOC NEW MODERNI BECK U, 1999, WROLD RISK SOC BOYD W, 2001, TECHNOL CULT, V42, P631 BRENNER N, 1999, THEOR SOC, V28, P39 BRENNER N, 2002, ANTIPODE, V34, P349 BRIDGE G, 2000, ANTIPODE, V32, P10 BRIDGE G, 2000, GEOFORUM, V31, P237 CASTREE N, 1995, ANTIPODE, V27, P12 COLVILLE VR, 1982, CAN J EARTH SCI, V19, P962 COWELL DW, 1980, CAN J EARTH SCI, V17, P520 COWELL DW, 1983, J HYDROL, V61, P163 DAVIS M, 1998, ECOLOGY FEAR LOS ANG DAVIS M, 2001, LATE VICTORIAN HOLOC DOWIE M, 1995, LOSING GROUND AM ENV DREW D, 1999, KARST HYDROGEOLOGY H DRYZEK JS, 1997, POLITICS EARTH ENV D DRYZEK JS, 2000, DELIBERATIVE DEMOCRA FORD D, 1989, KARST GEOMORPHOLOGY GIBSONGRAHM JK, 1996, END CAPITALISM WE KN GIDDENS A, 1994, LEFT RIGHT FUTURE RA GOODMAN D, 1987, FARMING BIOTECHNOLOG GOODMAN D, 1991, REFASHIONING NATURE HARRISON K, 1996, PASSING BUCK FEDERAL HARRISON K, 2000, MANAGING ENV UNION I, P49 HARVEY D, 1989, GEOGR ANN B, V71, P3 HARVEY D, 1996, JUSTICE NATURE GEOGR HARVEY D, 2000, SPACES HOPE HESSING M, 1997, CANADIAN NATURAL RES JAMIESON RL, 1997, ANN REPORT OMBUDSMAN JESSOP B, 1990, NEW LEFT REV, P81 JESSOP B, 1994, POSTFORDISM READER, P251 KEIL R, 2002, ANTIPODE, V34, P578 KRAJNC A, 2000, CAN PUBLIC POL, V26, P111 LACLAU E, 1985, HEGEMONY SOCIALIST S MACLACHLAN I, 2001, KILL CHILL RESTRUCTU MILLER G, 2000, CHANGING PERSPECTIVE MILLER G, 2000, PROTECTION ONTARIOS OCONNOR DR, 2002, REPORT WALKERTON INQ OCONNOR J, 1988, CAPITALISM NATURE SO, V1, P11 OCONNOR J, 1998, ANTURAL CAUSES ESSAY PECK J, 1995, ENVIRON PLANN A, V27, P15 PECK J, 2001, PROG HUM GEOG, V25, P445 PECK J, 2002, ANTIPODE, V34, P380 PECK JA, 1992, GEOFORUM, V23, P347 PELLING M, 2001, SOCIAL NATURE THEORY, P170 PERROW C, 1999, NORMAL ACCIDENTS LIV POLANYI K, 1944, GREAT TRANSFORMATION REES J, 1998, NATURAL RESOURCES FO, V22, P95 SMITH N, 1984, UNEVEN DEV NATURE CA TICKELL A, 1995, ECON SOC, V24, P357 VIG NJ, 1984, ENV POLICY 1980S REA WATSON CN, 2001, FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT WATTS MJ, 1983, SILENT VIOLENCE FOOD WHITE GF, 1975, ASSESSMENT RES NATUR, V1, P1 WINSON A, 1993, INTIMATE COMMODITY F WORTHINGTON SRH, 2001, KARST HYDROGEOLOGY I NR 63 TC 0 J9 GEOFORUM BP 343 EP 359 PY 2004 PD MAY VL 35 IS 3 GA 820HJ UT ISI:000221377900007 ER PT J AU Rindorf, A Lewy, P TI Warm, windy winters drive cod north and homing of spawners keeps them there SO JOURNAL OF APPLIED ECOLOGY LA English DT Article C1 Danish Inst Fisheries REs, DK-2920 Charlottenlund, Denmark. RP Rindorf, A, Danish Inst Fisheries REs, DK-2920 Charlottenlund, Denmark. AB 1. Climatic and anthropogenic effects often interact leading to unexpected results. For example, climate may lead to a change in the spatial distribution of a fish stock and thereby its vulnerability to exploitation. The North Sea cod stock is currently under pressure from both environmental change and human exploitation. This stock has experienced a series of poor recruitments since the late 1990s and, concomitant with the decrease in abundance, the distribution of cod has changed. While it has been suggested that the change in distribution can be linked to increasing temperatures and fishing pressure, there is little evidence for this hypothesis. 2. Using winter and summer survey catches, we investigated whether a directional shift in the distribution of cod has taken place over the years 1983-2003. We then examined whether the change could be linked to climatic conditions, fishing mortality, stock size or limited directional movement of cod. Using the derived models, we investigated whether fishing has increased the sensitivity of the cod population to climate-induced distribution changes. 3. A series of winters characterized by high temperatures and southerly winds during the egg and larval phases of cod led to a northward shift in the distribution of juvenile North Sea cod the following year. A concomitant northern shift of mature fish around the time of spawning was linked directly to a tendency for northerly distributed juveniles to remain northerly throughout their life. This shift of the spawners further augmented that of the new recruits. 4. Although fishing mortality on a North Sea scale was not directly correlated with the displacement of any of the age groups, fishing has severely decreased the number of fish in older age groups. This increased the sensitivity of the distribution of the cod stock to climatic changes. 5. Synthesis and applications. The centre of gravity of North Sea cod has moved north as a result of the effect of a series of warm, windy winters on the distribution of recently settled cod. The shift was followed by a northwards shift in the distribution of older age groups. Unless a series of cold and calm years combined with a reduced mortality in the southern areas allows a southern spawning population to rebuild, the cod stock is unlikely to return to its previous area of distribution. Furthermore, protecting adult cod mainly in northern areas is unlikely to result in improved recruitment to the southern North Sea. CR 2004, PREL M EX COMM N SEA 2004, REPORT COMMISSION EU *ICES, 2005, COMM M 2005 ACFM 07 BEAUGRAND G, 2003, NATURE, V426, P661 BEDFORD BC, 1966, COMM M 1966G 9 INT C BEGG GA, 2002, MAR ECOL-PROG SER, V229, P245 BRANDER K, 2000, OCEANOL ACTA, V23, P485 BRANDER KM, 1994, ICES J MAR SCI, V51, P71 CLARK DS, 1991, CAN J ZOOL, V69, P1302 COOK RM, 1999, J NW ATLANTIC FISHER, V25, P91 CUSHING DH, 1976, ADV MAR BIOL, V14, P1 DAAN N, 1978, RAPPORTS PROCES VERB, V172, P39 DAAN N, 1990, NETH J SEA RES, V26, P343 HULME PE, 2005, J APPL ECOL, V42, P784 HUTCHINSON WF, 2001, MAR ECOL-PROG SER, V223, P251 IVERSEN SA, 1984, FLODEVIGEN RAPP, V1, P49 JENNINGS S, 2001, MARINE FISHERIES ECO KING D, 2005, J APPL ECOL, V42, P779 MACCALL AD, 1990, DYNAMIC GEOGRAPHY MA MACKENZIE BR, 2000, LIMNOL OCEANOGR, V45, P1 MACKENZIE BR, 2004, ECOLOGY, V85, P784 MYERS RA, 1989, COMM M 1989D 15 INT OBRIEN CM, 2000, NATURE, V404, P142 PERRY AL, 2005, SCIENCE, V308, P1912 PERRY RI, 1994, CAN J FISH AQUAT SCI, V51, P589 POLOCZANSKA ES, 2004, ICES J MAR SCI, V61, P788 PORTNER HO, 2001, CONT SHELF RES, V21, P1975 PRANDLE D, 1984, PHILOS T ROY SOC A, V310, P407 ROBICHAUD D, 2001, CAN J FISH AQUAT SCI, V58, P2325 RUZZANTE DE, 1996, CAN J FISH AQUAT SCI, V53, P2695 RUZZANTE DE, 2001, CONSERV GENET, V2, P257 SUNDBY S, 1994, ICES MAR SCI S, V198, P393 SWAIN DP, 1995, MAR ECOL-PROG SER, V116, P11 SWAIN DP, 1999, FISH OCEANOGR, V8, P1 TAGGART CT, 1997, NAFO SCI COUNC STUD, V29, P51 TURRELL WR, 1992, ICES J MAR SCI, V49, P107 WATSON A, 1977, J CONSEIL INT EXPLOR, V37, P310 NR 37 TC 1 J9 J APPL ECOL BP 445 EP 453 PY 2006 PD JUN VL 43 IS 3 GA 042GT UT ISI:000237516600007 ER PT J AU YARNAL, B TI AGRICULTURAL DECOLLECTIVIZATION AND VULNERABILITY TO ENVIRONMENTAL-CHANGE - A BULGARIAN CASE-STUDY SO GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS LA English DT Article RP YARNAL, B, PENN STATE UNIV,CTR EARTH SYST SCI,302 WALKER BLDG,UNIVERSITY PK,PA 16802. AB Is the transformation from Communism to a more market-based society making Bulgarians - and particularly farmers more vulnerable to environmental change? Intensive, open-ended interviews suggest that government policies, new privatization laws and the nation's economic crisis are decreasing farmers' flexibility and removing social safety nets. Yet generalizations are difficult because implementation of the decollectivization process is different at each cooperative farm, thus creating varying levels of vulnerability. Easing the crisis is the tradition of family-based, small-plot gardening, which appears to ensure sufficient food for most Bulgarians. CR 1989, GREEN BOOK 1991, BULGARIA CRISIS T MA, V2 1992, GLOBAL ENV CHANGE UN 1992, STATISTICAL REFERENC 1993, 168 HOURS BBN, V3, P5 BARTOS M, 1987, SCOPE, V32, P319 BEGG RB, 1993, 2ND S IMP POL EC RES BROOKS K, 1991, J ECON PERSPECT, V5, P149 BROWN JF, 1970, BULGARIA COMMUNIST R CARTER FW, 1993, ENV PROBLEMS E EUROP DEBARDELEBEN J, 1991, BREATH FREE E EUROPE DOWNING TE, 1991, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V1, P365 FRENCH HF, 1990, GREEN REVOLUTIONS EN GREEN F, 1989, RESTRUCTING UK EC HABERMAS J, 1975, LEGITIMATION CRISIS JACOBSON, 1991, FRAMEWORK RES HUMAN KOLKO J, 1988, RESTRUCTURING WORLD LIVERMAN DM, 1990, UNDERSTANDING GLOBAL, V1, P27 MCINTYRE RJ, 1988, BULGARI POLITICS EC MORREN G, 1983, INTERPRETATIONS CALA, P284 OCONNOR JF, 1973, FISCAL CRISIS STATE OCONNOR JF, 1984, ACCUMULATION CRISIS PEET R, 1987, INT CAPITALISM IND R PEET R, 1989, POLITICAL EC PERSPEC PICKLES J, IN PRESS PROFESSIONA SAYER A, 1985, POLITICS METHOD CONT, P147 SCHOENBERGER E, 1991, PROF GEOGR, V43, P180 SLAVOV N, 1993, DROUGHT NETWORK NEWS, V5, P12 SMITH K, 1992, ENV HAZARDS ASSESSIN STIGLIANI W, 1993, NEW SCI 1211, P38 TIMMERMAN P, 1981, ENV MONOGRAPH, V1, P1 TURNER BL, 1990, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V1, P14 YARNAL B, 1994, DISASTERS, V18, P95 YARNAL B, 1994, LAND USE POLICY, V11, P67 NR 34 TC 3 J9 GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANGE BP 229 EP 243 PY 1994 PD SEP VL 4 IS 3 GA PE720 UT ISI:A1994PE72000004 ER PT J AU Terry, A Ryder, M TI Coping with change: The transition from subsistence orientated rain-fed agriculture to commercial irrigated agriculture SO GEOGRAPHY LA English DT Article C1 Univ W England, Sch Geog & Environm Management, Fac Built Environm, Bristol BS16 1QY, Avon, England. RP Terry, A, Univ W England, Sch Geog & Environm Management, Fac Built Environm, Coldharbour Lane, Bristol BS16 1QY, Avon, England. AB The adoption of irrigated commercial sugarcane farming by Swazi smallholders has bad a mixed effect on food security. A major factor is the differing managerial and financial skills of the individual farmers associations. The long-run prospects are potentially problematic due to a decline in sugar prices, particularly in the EU which, at present, is Swaziland's main overseas market. CR *DFID, 1999, SUST LIV GUID SHEETS *FAO, 1996, SYNTH TECHN BACKGR D *GFA, 1998, FEAS STUD LOW US BAS *GOV SWAZ, 1997, KINGD SWAZ NAT DEV S *WORLD BANK, 2003, WB SWAZ GLANC ATKINS S, 1995, Q J INT AGR, V34, P224 ATKINS SL, 1999, PEOPLE EMPLOYMENT PO BERNSTEIN H, 1992, RURAL LIVELIHOODS CR, P13 BERNSTEIN H, 1994, CAPITALISM DEV, P40 BRATTON M, 1992, RURAL LIVELIHOODS CR, P213 CARNEY D, 1998, SUSTAINABLE RURAL LI CARNEY D, 1999, OVERSEAS DEV I POVER, V2 CHAMBERS R, 1997, WHO REALITY COUNTS P CLAY E, 1997, FOOD SECURITY STATUS CORBETT J, 1988, WORLD DEV, V16, P1099 DAVIES S, 1996, ADAPTABLE LIVELIHOOD DEVEREUX S, 2001, FOOD SECURITY SUB SA FRANKENBURGER TR, 1992, HOUSEHOLD FOOD SECUR, P74 FUNNELL DC, 1991, SHADOW APARTHEID AGR GEIER G, 1995, FOOD SECURITY POLICY GEORGE S, 1976, OTHER HALF DIES REAL GLOVER DJ, 1984, WORLD DEV, V12, P1143 GLOVER DJ, 1990, SMALL FARMERS BIG BU GOODMAN D, 1997, GLOBALISING FOOD AGR GOZNELL J, 2004, FOOD POVERTY CONSUMP, V38, P15 GRIGG D, 1995, INTRO AGR GEOGRAPHY HANSON S, 1992, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V82, P569 HARRIS FMA, 2003, AMBIO, V32, P24 KEY N, 1999, WORLD DEV, V27, P381 LAPPE F, 1986, WORLD HUNGER 12 MYTH LEACH M, 1997, 359 IDS LITTLE P, 1994, LIVING CONTRACT CONT LONGHURST R, 1988, IDS B, V19, P2 LOW A, 1986, AGR DEV S AFRICA FAR MAXWELL S, 1988, NATL FOOD SECURITY P MAXWELL S, 1989, WORLD DEV, V17, P1677 MAXWELL S, 1996, FOOD POLICY, V21, P155 PACEY A, 1985, AGR DEV NUTR PAYNE P, 1994, FOOD POLICY REV, V2 PORTER G, 1997, GEOGRAPHY 1, V82, P38 POTTIER J, 1999, ANTHR FOOD SOCIAL DY REARDON T, 1989, SEASONAL VARIABILITY REDCLIFT M, 2002, COMPANION DEV STUDIE, P275 SAPSFORD D, 2001, COMPANION DEV STUDIE, P70 SCOTT J, 1976, MORAL EC PEASANT SEN AK, 1981, POVERTY FAMINES ESSA, V1, P1 STRINGFELLOW R, 1996, INVESTIGATION ORG FE SWIFT J, 1989, IDS B, V20, P8 SWIFT J, 2001, FOOD SECURITY SUB SA, P67 TERRY A, 2001, S AFRICAN GEOGRAPHIC, V83, P18 TERRY AK, 1997, SINGAPORE J TROP GEO, V18, P196 TIELEMAN H, 1988, 33 AFR STUD CTR LEID VONBRAUN J, 1993, DATA NEEDS FOOD POLI WATTS M, 1983, SILENT VIOLENCE FOOD WATTS M, 1990, FOOD QUESTION PROFIT, P149 WHITE B, 1997, J PEASANT STUD, V24, P110 NR 56 TC 0 J9 GEOGRAPHY BP 138 EP 150 PY 2005 PD SUM VL 90 GA 936VA UT ISI:000229882300004 ER PT J AU Schmidt-Thome, P Greiving, S Kallio, H Fleischhauer, M Jarva, J TI Economic risk maps of floods and earthquakes for European regions SO QUATERNARY INTERNATIONAL LA English DT Article C1 Geol Survey Finland, FIN-02150 Espoo, Finland. Univ Dortmund, Inst Spatial Planning, IRPUD, D-44227 Dortmund, Germany. RP Schmidt-Thome, P, Geol Survey Finland, Betonimiehenkuja 4, FIN-02150 Espoo, Finland. AB Europe experiences different natural hazards and subsequent risks that have various effects on the development of its regions. The spatial significance of hazards can be expressed as an economic risk when combining hazard potential with vulnerability data. Two examples of European natural hazard maps on floods and earthquakes, as well as the resulting risk profiles of regions (combination of hazard potential and vulnerability) give a first impression on the spatial characters of hazards in Europe and their potential impact on further spatial development. The economic risk maps enable a view on the spatial dimension of the economic damage potential of flood and earthquakes, pointing out comparable situations across Europe with the aim to facilitate targeted responses and policies. The spatial character of a hazard is either defined by spatial effects that might occur in case of a disaster or by the possibility of spatial planning responses. The integration of the economic vulnerability of a region (regional GDP per capita, population density) leads to a classification of areas according to their economic risk or damage potential towards hazards. These synthetic risk profiles are presented as risk maps of European regions in administrative boundaries. Obtained information can be of interest for spatial planning and development strategies, e.g. economic risk profile of regions can influence the targets of investments and could thus be an important background for structural funding. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd and INQUA. All rights reserved. CR *UNISDR, 2002, LIV RISK GLOB REV DI BACHFISCHER R, 1978, THESIS TU MUNCHEN MU BLAIKIE PM, 1994, RISK NATURAL HAZARDS, V1, P1 BURBY RJ, 1998, COOPERATING NATURE C LUBKOWSKI ZA, 1998, P ICE CIV ENG, V144, P55 RADU C, 1964, B SEISMOLOGICAL SOC, V54, P79 SCHMIDTTHOME P, 2006, NATURAL TECHNOLOGICA SCHMOLDT DL, 2001, MANAG FOR ECOSYST, V3, P1 SCHOLLES F, 1997, ABSCHATZEN EINSCHATZ, V13 TOBIN GA, 1997, NATURAL HAZARDS EXPL WESSEL J, 1995, US IT RES WORKSH HYD NR 11 TC 0 J9 QUATERN INT BP 103 EP 112 PY 2006 PD JUN VL 150 GA 054VC UT ISI:000238405700011 ER PT J AU Moreno, AR TI Climate change and human health in Latin America: drivers, effects, and policies SO REGIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 US Mexico Fdn Sci, Mexico City 03100, DF, Mexico. RP Moreno, AR, US Mexico Fdn Sci, San Francisco 1626 Desp 205,Col Valle, Mexico City 03100, DF, Mexico. AB Many people would be increasingly affected by living under critical conditions in Latin America if, as expected, global warming aggravates disease and pest transmission processes. Heat waves and air pollution would increase heat-related diseases and illness episodes in large cities. Fire smoke has been associated with irritation of the throat, lung and eyes, and respiratory problems. Climate extreme increases associated with climate change would cause physical damage, population displacement, and adverse effects on food production, freshwater availability and quality. It would also increase the risks of infectious and vector-borne diseases. Climate change impacts the geographical range, seasonality, and the incidence rate of vector-borne diseases. such as malaria. Climate-related ecological changes may expand cholera transmission, particularly populations in low-laying tropical coastal areas. El Nino conditions may affect the incidence of infectious diseases, such as malaria. Ocean warming would increase temperature-sensitive toxins produced by phytoplankton, which could cause more frequent contamination of seafood. A clearer understanding on the current role of climate change in disease patterns will be able to improve forecasts of potential future impacts of projected climate change and support action to reduce such impacts. CR *AID, 1998, 9 AID BUR HUM RESP O *IPCC, 2001, CONTR WORK GROUP 1 3, P81 *IPCC, 2001, CONTR WORK GROUP 2 3, P1032 *OPS, 1998, CE12210 OPS *OPS, 1999, OPAHCPHCTAIEPI99 OPS *PAHO, 1999, CONC REC M EV PREP R *WHO, 1998, WHO EURO INT WORKSH *WHO, 2001, MON HLTH IMP CLIM CH *WMO, 2000, 1997 1998 NINO EVENT BLAIKIE PM, 1994, RISK NATURAL HAZARDS, V1, P1 BOUMA MJ, 1996, TROP MED INT HEALTH, V1, P86 CALDERON C, 1995, GRANA, V34, P160 CANZIANI OF, 1998, REGIONAL IMPACTS CLI, V2, P187 CARCAVALLO RU, 1996, J EPIDEMIOLOGY, V6, S153 CATALA S, 1991, MED VET ENTOMOL, V5, P325 CATALA SS, 1992, AM J TROP MED HYG, V47, P20 CHAKRABORTY S, 1998, AUSTRALAS PLANT PATH, V27, P15 CHECKLEY W, 2000, LANCET, V355, P442 COLWELL RR, 1994, ANN NY ACAD SCI, V740, P44 CONFALONIERI U, 2003, TERRA LIVRE, V1, P193 CONFALONIERI UEC, 2000, CLIMATE VARIABILITY DAILY GC, 1997, NATURES SERVICES SOC DECASAS SIC, 1995, SOC SCI MED, V40, P1437 DUCLOS P, 1990, ARCH ENVIRON HEALTH, V45, P53 EMBERLIN J, 1994, ALLERGY, V49, P15 EPSTEIN PR, 1997, CLIMATE ECOLOGY HUMA EPSTEIN PR, 2000, SCI AM, V283, P50 FAGAN B, 1999, FLOODS FAMINES EMPER GAWITH MJ, 1999, CLIMATE CHANGE RISK, P279 GITHEKO AK, 2000, B WORLD HEALTH ORGAN, V78, P1136 GRASSES JP, 2000, EFECTOS ILUVIAS CAID GUBLER DJ, 1998, CLIN MICROBIOL REV, V11, P480 GUERRANT RL, 1996, EDGE DEV HLTH CRISIS, P91 HALES S, 2002, LANCET, V360, P830 KOVATS RS, 1999, WHOSDEPHE994 KOVATS RS, 2000, B WORLD HEALTH ORGAN, V78, P1127 KOVATS RS, 2000, CLIMATE VECTOR BORNE KOVATS RS, 2001, PHILOS T ROY SOC B, V356, P1057 KOVATS RS, 2005, RISK ANAL, V25, P1409 LOBITZ B, 2000, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V97, P1438 MARCONDES CB, 1997, MEM I OSWALDO CRUZ, V92, P317 MATA LJ, 2001, IPCC 2001 CLIMATE CH, P693 MCMICHAEL AJ, 2000, ENVIRON MONIT ASSESS, V61, P49 MCMICHAEL AJ, 2001, AM J PUBLIC HEALTH, V91, P1172 MCMICHAEL AJ, 2001, HUMAN FRONTIERS ENV MCMICHAEL AJ, 2001, IPCC 2001 CLIMATE CH, P451 MCMICHAEL AJ, 2002, REG C CLIM VAR CHANG MORENOBELTRAN A, 1999, J MOL CATAL B-ENZYM, V6, P1 ORTIZ PL, 1997, 8 C INT BIOM PAN, V97, P240 ORTIZ PL, 2000, P C NAT ASS RES CLIM, P203 PATZ JA, 1998, HLTH ENV, V12, P49 PATZ JA, 2001, ECOSYSTEM CHANGE PUB, P379 PATZ JA, 2002, NATURE, V420, P627 PATZ JA, 2002, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V99, P12506 REITER P, 2001, ENVIRON HEALTH PE S1, V109, P141 ROBERTS L, 2001, ECOSYSTEM CHANGE PUB, P409 ROSAS I, 1989, INT J BIOMETEOROL, V33, P173 ROSAS I, 1994, AEROBIOLOGIA, V10, P39 ROSAS I, 1995, AEROBIOLOGIA, V11, P81 SUTHERST RW, 2001, INT J PARASITOL, V31, P933 VANLIESHOUT M, 2004, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V14, P87 VITOUSEK PM, 1997, SCIENCE, V277, P494 WITTWER SH, 1995, FOOD CLIMATE CARBON NR 63 TC 0 J9 REG ENVIRON CHANG BP 157 EP 164 PY 2006 PD JUN VL 6 IS 3 GA 054MU UT ISI:000238382000004 ER PT J AU OBrien, KL Leichenko, RM TI Double exposure: assessing the impacts of climate change within the context of economic globalization SO GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS LA English DT Article C1 Univ Oslo, CICERO, N-0318 Oslo, Norway. Rutgers State Univ, Dept Geog, New Brunswick, NJ 08901 USA. Rutgers State Univ, Ctr Urban Policy Res, New Brunswick, NJ 08901 USA. RP OBrien, KL, Univ Oslo, CICERO, POB 1129 Blindern, N-0318 Oslo, Norway. AB This paper considers synergisms between the impacts of two global processes, climate change and economic globalization. Both processes entail long-term changes that will have differential impacts throughout the world. Despite widespread recognition that there will be "winners" and "losers" with both climate change and globalization, the two issues are rarely examined together. In this paper, we introduce the concept of double exposure as a framework for examining the simultaneous impacts of climate change and globalization. Double exposure refers to the fact that certain regions, sectors, ecosystems and social groups will be confronted both by the impacts of climate change, and by the consequences of globalization. By considering the joint impacts of the two processes, new sets of winners and losers emerge. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. 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SO ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING AND ASSESSMENT LA English DT Article C1 CSIRO, Climate Impacts Grp, Aspendale, Vic 3195, Australia. RP Pittock, AB, CSIRO, Climate Impacts Grp, PB 1, Aspendale, Vic 3195, Australia. AB Adaptation in response to anthropogenic climate change seeks to maintain viability by maximising benefits and minimising losses. It is necessary because some climatic change is now inevitable, despite the international focus on mitigation measures. Indeed, the measures agreed at Kyoto would by themselves result in only a small reduction in the climate changes to be expected over the next century. Discussion of the expected changes and possible impacts leads to the following conclusions regarding climate change scenarios in relation to impacts and adaptation: Climate change in the foreseeable future will not be some new stable "equilibrium" climate, but rather an ongoing "transient" process; Climate change predictions relevant to impacts on most sectors and ecosystems are still highly uncertain; There is a need for a greater focus on developing countries and tropical regions, and on relevant key variables, including the magnitude and frequency of extreme events; The focus should shift from single predictions, or extreme ranges of uncertainty, to risk assessment; Thresholds critical to impacted sectors and ecosystems should be identified, and expressed as functions of climatic variables; Planned adaptations will be necessary to cope with multiple stresses, including those due to non-climatic changes; A major task of adaptation science is to identify the limits of adaptation, i.e., to identify "dangerous levels of greenhouse gases" beyond which adaptation becomes impractical or prohibitively expensive. CR *CSIRO, 1996, CLIM CHANG SCEN AUST *WMO, 1995, 37 WORLD MET ORG GLO ANTHES RA, 1982, AM METEOROLOGICAL SO, V41 BAZZAZ FA, 1990, ANNU REV ECOL SYST, V21, P167 BEER T, 1995, 102 COMM AUSTR BOLIN B, 1998, SCIENCE, V279, P330 BROCCOLI AJ, 1995, B AM METEOROL SOC, V76, P2243 BUDDEMEIER RW, 1994, B I OCEANOGRAPHIQUE, V13, P119 BUDDEMEIER RW, 1996, B I OCEANOGRAPHIQUE, V14, P23 CUBASCH U, 1994, CLIM DYNAM, V10, P1 CURE JD, 1986, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V38, P127 ENGLAND MH, 1995, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V22, P3051 EVANS JL, 1992, INT J CLIMATOL, V12, P611 FAIRBANKS RG, 1989, NATURE, V342, P637 FOWLER AM, 1995, NAT HAZARDS, V11, P283 GATTUSO JP, IN PRESS AM ZOOLOGIS GIFFORD RM, 1996, GREENHOUSE COPING CL, P399 GLYNN PW, 1996, GLOB CHANGE BIOL, V2, P495 GORDON HB, 1997, MON WEATHER REV, V125, P875 GRAY WM, 1968, MON WEA REV, V96, P669 GRAY WM, 1975, 234 COL STAT U DEP A GREGORY JM, 1993, J CLIMATE, V6, P2247 HARRISON DE, 1997, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V24, P1779 HENDERSONSELLERS A, 1993, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V25, P203 HENDERSONSELLERS A, 1998, B AM METEOROL SOC, V79, P19 HENNESSY KJ, 1997, CLIM DYNAM, V13, P667 HERMAN JR, 1996, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V23, P2117 HOLLAND GJ, 1993, WMOTD560 HOLLAND GJ, 1997, J ATMOS SCI, V54, P2519 HOPLEY D, 1988, CSIRO PUB, P189 HUBBERT GD, IN PRESS J COASTAL R JACKETT DR, IN PRESS J CLIMATE JONES RN, 1997, FRONTIERS ECOLOGY BU, P311 JONES RN, 1998, IN PRESS P WORKSH IM KARL TR, 1990, J CLIMATE, V3, P1053 KINZIE RA, 1996, GLOB CHANGE BIOL, V2, P479 KLEYPAS JA, 1997, PALEOCEANOGRAPHY, V12, P533 KNUTSON TR, 1998, SCIENCE, V279, P1018 KONISHI T, 1995, PAPERS METEOROLOGY G, V46, P9 LARCOMBE P, 1996, GREAT BARRIER REEF T LIGHTHILL J, 1994, B AM METEOROL SOC, V75, P2147 LUBIN D, 1995, NATURE, V377, P710 MCDOUGALL TJ, 1996, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V23, P2085 MCGREGOR JL, 1993, MODELLING CHANGE ENV, P367 MEEHL GA, 1996, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V23, P3755 NASH JM, 1998, TIME 0302, P44 OFARRELL SP, 1997, ANN GLACIOL, V25, P137 PARRY ML, 1996, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V6, P1 PITTOCK AB, IN PRESS AM ZOOLOGIS PITTOCK AB, 1995, REV ENV, V37, P25 PITTOCK AB, 1995, WEATHER CLIMATE, V15, P21 RAJAGOPALAN B, 1997, J CLIMATE, V10, P2351 RAYNER S, 1997, SUGGESTIONS POLICYMA REVELL CG, 1986, MON WEATHER REV, V114, P1138 SCHICK JM, 1997, GLOB CHANGE BIOL, V6, P527 SMITH I, IN PRESS GLOBAL PLAN SOLOMON AM, 1993, VEGETATION DYNAMICS, P25 SUPPIAH R, 1998, 19941997 CSIRO DIV A TERAMURA AH, 1983, PHYSIOL PLANTARUM, V58, P415 TEVINI M, 1993, UV B RAD OZONE DEPLE TRENBERTH KE, 1996, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V23, P57 TRENBERTH KE, 1997, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V24, P3057 WALSH K, 1997, J CLIMATE, V10, P2240 WALSH KJE, UNPUB J CLIMATE WATSON RT, 1998, REGIONAL IMPACTS CLI, V1, P1 WATTERSON IG, 1995, J CLIMATE, V8, P3052 WHETTON PH, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE PEOPL, P89 WHETTON PH, 1996, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V33, P497 WIGLEY TML, 1998, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V25, P2285 WILBY RL, 1997, PROG PHYS GEOG, V21, P530 WILSON SG, 1997, IMPACT GREENHOUSE WA WYRTKI K, 1985, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V12, P125 NR 72 TC 8 J9 ENVIRON MONIT ASSESS BP 9 EP 35 PY 2000 PD MAR VL 61 IS 1 GA 300UB UT ISI:000086270100002 ER PT J AU Meir, E Andelman, S Possingham, HP TI Does conservation planning matter in a dynamic and uncertain world? SO ECOLOGY LETTERS LA English DT Article C1 Univ Calif Santa Barbara, Natl Ctr Ecol Anal & Synth, Santa Barbara, CA 93101 USA. Simbiot Software, Ithaca, NY 14850 USA. Univ Queensland, Ctr Ecol, St Lucia, Qld 4075, Australia. Univ Queensland, Dept Math, St Lucia, Qld 4075, Australia. RP Andelman, S, Univ Calif Santa Barbara, Natl Ctr Ecol Anal & Synth, Santa Barbara, CA 93101 USA. AB Loss of biodiversity is one of the world's overriding environmental challenges. Reducing those losses by creating reserve networks is a cornerstone of global conservation and resource management. Historically, assembly of reserve networks has been ad hoc, but recently the focus has shifted to identifying optimal reserve networks. We show that while comprehensive reserve network design is best when the entire network can be implemented immediately, when conservation investments must be staged over years, such solutions actually may be sub-optimal in the context of biodiversity loss and uncertainty. Simple decision rules, such as protecting the available site with the highest irreplaceability or with the highest species richness, may be more effective when implementation occurs over many years. CR *WDPA, 2003, WORLD DAT PROT AR IU AIRAME S, 2003, ECOL APPL S, V13, S170 ANDELMAN SJ, 1999, SITES V 1 0 ANAL TOO ANDELMAN SJ, 2002, CONSERV BIOL, V16, P1352 ANDELMAN SJ, 2003, ECOL LETT, V6, P818 ANDO A, 1998, SCIENCE, V279, P2126 BALMFORD A, 2002, SCIENCE, V297, P950 BELLMAN R, 1957, DYNAMIC PROGRAMMING CARO TM, 2001, BIOL CONSERV, V98, P251 COSTELLO C, 2004, RESOUR ENERGY ECON, V26, P157 COWLING RM, 2003, BIOL CONSERV, V112, P191 DAILY GC, 2001, ECOL APPL, V11, P1 DAVIS FW, 1999, PARKS, V9, P31 FERRIER S, 2000, BIOL CONSERV, V93, P303 FRANKLIN JF, 1993, ECOL APPL, V3, P202 GROVES C, 2003, DRAFTING CONSERVATIO JAMES A, 2001, BIOSCIENCE, V51, P43 LI L, 2003, LANDSCAPE URBAN PLAN, V64, P67 LIU JG, 2001, SCIENCE, V292, P98 MALAKOFF D, 2002, SCIENCE, V296, P245 MANGEL M, 1988, DYNAMIC MODELING BEH MIDGLEY GF, 2002, GLOBAL ECOL BIOGEOGR, V11, P445 MIDGLEY GF, 2003, BIOL CONSERV, V112, P87 MILLER KR, 1996, BIODIVERSITY MANAGED, P425 NEWMARK WD, 1987, NATURE, V325, P430 NOSS RF, 2002, CONSERV BIOL, V16, P895 PARKS SA, 2002, CONSERV BIOL, V16, P800 PIMM SL, 2001, SCIENCE, V293, P2207 POLASKY S, 2001, LAND ECON, V77, P76 PONTIUS RG, 2001, AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON, V85, P191 POSSINGHAM H, 1993, P 12 AUSTR OP RES C, P536 POSSINGHAM H, 1999, QUANTITATIVE METHODS, P291 PRESSEY RL, 1996, BIOL CONSERV, V76, P259 PYKE CR, 2004, FRONTIERISM ECOL ENV, V4, P178 RODRIGUES ASL, 2004, NATURE, V428, P640 ROSENZWEIG ML, 2003, WIN WIN ECOLOGY EART THEOBALD DM, 1998, GEOGRAPHICAL ENV MOD, V2, P65 WADDELL P, 2002, TRANSPORT RES REC, V1805, P105 NR 38 TC 1 J9 ECOL LETT BP 615 EP 622 PY 2004 PD AUG VL 7 IS 8 GA 838ME UT ISI:000222716600001 ER PT J AU Herbert, JM Dixon, RW Isom, JL TI A tropical weather vulnerability assessment for Texas coastal counties SO TEXAS JOURNAL OF SCIENCE LA English DT Article C1 Texas State Univ, James & Marilyn Lovell Ctr Environm Geog & Hazard, Dept Geog, San Marcos, TX 78666 USA. RP Herbert, JM, Jacksonville State Univ, Dept Phys & Earth Sci, Jacksonville, AL 36265 USA. AB A Tropical Weather Vulnerability Index is developed for the Texas coast. This index is based on the Hurricane Vulnerability Index of Dixon & Fitzsimons (2001), but includes additional data on tropical storms and accounts for edge effects of storms making landfall in Louisiana or Tamaulipas. The Index includes risk and exposure. Risk is measured by the number of landfalling tropical storms and hurricanes on Texas coastal counties. Exposure is measured by the number of people and the amount of property in these counties. Analysis shows the northern part of the coast, particularly Harris, Galveston, and Brazoria counties, to be more vulnerable than the central and southern parts. CR *NATL WEATH SERV H, 2001, ONLINE TROP STORM AL BOVE MC, 1998, B AM METEOROL SOC, V79, P1327 DIXON RW, 2001, TEX J SCI, V53, P345 ELSNER JB, 2000, J CLIMATE, V13, P2293 ELSNER JB, 2003, B AM METEOROL SOC, V84, P353 FRANKLIN JL, 2003, B AM METEOROL SOC, V84, P1197 HERRERA RG, 2003, B AM METEOROL SOC, V84, P1025 LANDSEA CW, 1993, MON WEATHER REV, V121, P1703 PIELKE JR, 1997, HURRICANES THEIR NAT NR 9 TC 0 J9 TEX J SCI BP 187 EP 196 PY 2005 PD MAY VL 57 IS 2 GA 956CU UT ISI:000231277300006 ER PT J AU Lehner, B Doll, P Alcamo, J Henrichs, T Kaspar, F TI Estimating the impact of global change on flood and drought risks in europe: A continental, integrated analysis SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 World Wildlife Fund US, Washington, DC 20037 USA. Univ Kassel, Ctr Environm Syst Res, D-34109 Kassel, Germany. RP Lehner, B, World Wildlife Fund US, 1250 24th St NW, Washington, DC 20037 USA. AB Most studies on the impact of climate change on regional water resources focus on long-term average flows or mean water availability, and they rarely take the effects of altered human water use into account. When analyzing extreme events such as floods and droughts, the assessments are typically confined to smaller areas and case studies. At the same time it is acknowledged that climate change may severely alter the risk of hydrological extremes over large regional scales, and that human water use will put additional pressure on future water resources. In an attempt to bridge these various aspects, this paper presents a first-time continental, integrated analysis of possible impacts of global change (here defined as climate and water use change) on future flood and drought frequencies for the selected study area of Europe. The global integrated water model WaterGAP is evaluated regarding its capability to simulate high and low-flow regimes and is then applied to calculate relative changes in flood and drought frequencies. The results indicate large critical regions' for which significant changes in flood or drought risks are expected under the proposed global change scenarios. The regions most prone to a rise in flood frequencies are northern to northeastern Europe, while southern and southeastern Europe show significant increases in drought frequencies. In the critical regions, events with an intensity of today's 100-year floods and droughts may recur every 10-50 years by the 2070s. Though interim and preliminary, and despite the inherent uncertainties in the presented approach, the results underpin the importance of developing mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change impacts on a continental scale. 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CR 1979, PROCEDURES EVALUATIO 1980, PROGR REPORT IMPLEME 1980, REPORT FLOOD HAZARD CARROLL J, 1979, BENEFITS COSTS, V2 CAULFIELD HP, 1983, PLAN RES FLOODS THEI, P137 CHANGNON SA, 1980, PLAN RES FLOODS THEI DRABEK T, 1983, PLAN RES FLOODS THEI, P107 MARZOLF GR, 1983, PLAN RES FLOODS THEI, P55 MILLIMAN JW, 1983, PLAN RES FLOODS THEI, P83 WHITE GF, 1975, ASSESSMENT RES NATUR, V1, P1 WHITE GF, 1975, FLOOD HAZARD US RES WHITE GF, 1983, PLAN RES FLOODS THEI, P173 NR 12 TC 1 J9 J WATER RESOUR PLAN MAN-ASCE BP 54 EP 64 PY 1985 VL 111 IS 1 GA TY302 UT ISI:A1985TY30200004 ER PT J AU Cosgrove, W Connor, R Kuylenstierna, J TI Workshop 3 (synthesis): climate variability, water systems and management options SO WATER SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY LA English DT Article C1 Chair Int Steering Comm, Grp Secor, Dialogue Water & Climate, Montreal, PQ H2Z 1B1, Canada. Dialogue Water & Climate, NL-2601 DA Delft, Netherlands. Stockholm Int Water Inst, SE-11221 Stockholm, Sweden. RP Cosgrove, W, Chair Int Steering Comm, Grp Secor, Dialogue Water & Climate, 555 Blvd Rene Levesque Quest, Montreal, PQ H2Z 1B1, Canada. AB Addressing climate variability now will better prepare us for future impacts of climate change. Sustained, multi-stakeholder dialogue at local through national levels is an approach that will reach the widest audience, helped by tools that illustrate vulnerability such as the Climate Vulnerability Index. Integrated water resources management deals with managing for variability and change and is therefore highly appropriate for dealing with climate impacts. NR 0 TC 0 J9 WATER SCI TECHNOL BP 129 EP 132 PY 2004 VL 49 IS 7 GA 834HB UT ISI:000222401100025 ER PT J AU Reed, MS Dougill, AJ TI Participatory selection process for indicators of rangeland condition in the Kalahari SO GEOGRAPHICAL JOURNAL LA English DT Article C1 Univ Leeds, Sch Environm, Leeds Environm & Dev Grp, Leeds LS2 9JT, W Yorkshire, England. RP Reed, MS, Univ Leeds, Sch Environm, Leeds Environm & Dev Grp, Leeds LS2 9JT, W Yorkshire, England. AB To develop indicator-based management tools that can facilitate sustainable natural resource management by non-specialists, meaningful participation of stakeholders is essential. A participatory framework is proposed for the identification, evaluation and selection of rangeland condition indicators. This framework is applied to the assessment of rangeland degradation processes and sustainable natural resource management with pastoralists in the southern Kalahari, Botswana. Farmer knowledge focused on vegetation and livestock, with soil, wild animal and socio-economic indicators playing a lesser role. Most were indicators of current rangeland condition; however 'early warning' indicators were also identified by some key informants. This demonstrates that some local knowledge is process-based. Such knowledge could be used to improve indicator-based management tools and extension advice on the livelihood adaptations necessary to prevent or reduce ecological change, capable of threatening livelihood sustainability. There is evidence that social background influences indicator use. Communal farmers rely most heavily on vegetation and livestock indicators, whilst syndicate and landowning pastoralists cite wild animal and soil-based indicators most frequently. These factors must be considered if indicator-based management tools are to meet the requirements of a diverse community. CR MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 *NRC, 2000, IND NAT *OECD, 1993, OECD COR SET IND ENV *UNCSD, 1996, IND SUST DEV FRAM ME ABEL NOJ, 1989, LAND DEGRAD REHABIL, V1, P101 ABEL NOJ, 1993, RANGE ECOLOGY DISEQU ASHLEY C, 2000, 134 ODI BEHNKE RH, 1993, RANGE ECOLOGY DISEQU BELLOWS BC, 1995, 195 SANREM CRSP, P243 BRECKENRIDGE RP, 1995, ENVIRON MONIT ASSESS, V36, P45 CAMPBELL BM, 2000, ECOL ECON, V33, P413 CARNEY D, 1998, SUSTAINABLE RURAL LI COWLING RM, 2000, TRENDS ECOL EVOL, V15, P303 DAVIES S, 1996, ADAPTABLE LIVELIHOOD DOUGILL A, 1999, GLOBAL ECOL BIOGEOGR, V8, P211 DOUGILL AJ, 1995, LAND DEGRADATION GRA DOUGILL AJ, 1999, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V89, P420 FORAN BD, 1978, P GRASSLAND SOC SO A, V15, P37 GRANT CC, 1996, ONDERSTEPOORT J VET, V63, P109 ILLIUS AW, 1999, ECOL APPL, V9, P798 ILLIUS AW, 2000, OIKOS, V89, P283 KIPURI N, 1996, GRASSROOTS INDICATOR KRUGMANN H, 1996, GRASSROOTS INDICATOR LANE CR, 1998, CUSTODIANS COMMONS P LIGHTFOOT C, 1993, J ASIAN FARMING SYST, V2, P67 MIDDLETON NJ, 1997, WORLD ATLAS DESERTIF MILTON SJ, 1998, J ARID ENVIRON, V39, P253 MORSE S, 2001, SUSTAIN DEV, V9, P1 PERKINS JS, 1993, LAND DEGRAD REHABIL, V4, P179 REED MS, 2001, FACILITATING PARTICI REIJ C, 2001, FARMER INNOVATION AF, P1 RENNIE JK, 1996, PARTICIPATORY RES SU SAVORY A, 1988, BIOL MONITORING NOTE SCOONES I, 1995, LIVING UNCERTAINTY N, P1 SCOONES I, 1998, 72 IDS SKARPE C, 1986, J ARID ENVIRON, V11, P147 SMYTH AJ, 1995, CAN J SOIL SCI, V75, P401 SPORTON D, 2002, SUSTAINABLE LIVELIHO STOCKDALE MC, 1996, RECENT APPROACHES PA STOCKING MA, 2001, HDB FIELD ASSESSMENT THOMAS DSG, 1991, J ARID ENVIRON, V20, P1 THOMAS DSG, 2000, LAND DEGRAD DEV, V11, P327 THOMAS DSG, 2001, 58 PANRUSA DFID U SH TONGWAY D, 1995, ENVIRON MONIT ASSESS, V37, P303 TOULMIN C, 2000, EVOLVING LAND RIGHTS TWYMAN C, 2001, REV AFRICAN POLITICA, V28, P9 VORSTER M, 1982, P GRASSLAND SOC SO A, V17, P84 WHITE R, 1993, LIVESTOCK DEV PASTOR WOODHOUSE P, 2000, 2 U MANCH NR 49 TC 0 J9 GEOGR J BP 224 EP 234 PY 2002 PD SEP VL 168 GA 614KV UT ISI:000179188900004 ER PT J AU Kerr, RB TI Informal labor and social relations in northern Malawi: The theoretical challenges and implications of ganyu labor for food security SO RURAL SOCIOLOGY LA English DT Article C1 Cornell Univ, Dept Dev Sociol, Ithaca, NY 14853 USA. RP Kerr, RB, Cornell Univ, Dept Rural Sociol, Ithaca, NY 14853 USA. AB Food insecurity is a problem faced by smallholder farmers in Malawi. In any given year between 70 and 85 percent of households run out of food stocks several months prior to the next harvest. Once food stocks are depleted many households obtain food by doing ganyu, a type of piecework labor. Limited research has been carried out on ganyu. This paper uses qualitative data to examine ganyu in relation to food security in one area of northern Malawi. Using the livelihoods framework, I argue that the most common form of ganyu is both a livelihood strategy and a measure of vulnerability, rather than a type of social capital as suggested by other authors. High reliance on ganyu points to increased social stratification related to a rise in smallholder tobacco production. Women in female-headed households appear to rely more on ganyu than in married households. Policy implications of these findings are considered. CR *MIN AGR, 1991, FOOD SEC NUTR MON RE *MIN AGR, 1993, NAT SAMPL SURV AGR 1 *MSIS, 1996, MAL SOC IND SURV 199 *NAT STUD OFF MACR, 2001, MAL DEM HLTH SURV 20 ADATO M, 2002, 128 FCND IFPRI BENSON T, 2002, MALAWI ATLAS SOCIAL BOURDIEU P, 1985, HDB THEORY RES SOCIO, P241 BROWN DL, 2001, RURAL SOCIOL, V66, P157 COLEMAN J, 1988, AM J SOCIOL, V94, P94 DEVEREUX S, 1997, HOUSEHOLD FOOD SECUR ELLIS F, 2002, 17 LADDER DFID ENGLUND H, 1999, AFRICA, V69, P138 FINE B, 2001, SOCIAL CAPITAL VERSU GRANOVETTER M, 1985, AM J SOCIOL, V91, P481 HIRSCHMANN D, 1984, WOMEN FARMERS MALAWI KERR RB, 2005, IN PRESS J SO AFRICA KYDD J, 1989, J INT DEV, V1, P112 KYDD JG, 1982, WORLD DEV, V10, P377 LAWSONMCDOWALL, 1999, FARMING SYSTEM INTEG LIGHTFOOT C, 1991, HOUSEHOLDS AGROECOSY LOW JW, 1994, THESIS CORNELL U LUHANGU MS, 2002, UNPUB FOOD SECURITY MARSLAND N, 1999, COPING POVERTY MALAW MATSUKWA L, 1994, FOOD POLICY PRODUCTI MCCRACKEN J, 1982, J SO AFRICAN STUDIES, V9, P172 MTIKA MM, 2001, HUM ORGAN, V60, P178 ORR A, 2000, WORLD DEV, V28, P347 ORR A, 2001, WORLD DEV, V29, P1325 PATTON MQ, 1990, QUALITATIVE EVALUATI PETERS P, 1988, WORKSH HOUS FOOD SEC, P33 PETERS P, 1989, CASH CROPPING FOOD S PETERS P, 1995, DEV LIBERALIZATION M PETERS P, 1996, 562 HARV I INT DEV PETERS P, 1999, AGR COMMERCIALIZATIO PETERS PE, 1997, CRIT ANTHROPOL, V17, P189 PORTES A, 1998, ANNU REV SOCIOL, V24, P1 PORTES A, 2000, SOCIOL FORUM, V15, P1 PUTNAM R, 1993, MAKING DEMOCRACY WOR REARDON T, 1997, WORLD DEV, V25, P735 SMALE M, 1995, WORLD DEV, V23, P819 VAIL L, 1983, HIST CENTRAL AFRICA, V2, P200 VAUGHAN M, 1987, STORY AFRICAN FAMINE WALKER PA, 1998, INT ASS STUDY COMMON, P21 WALL E, 1998, RURAL SOCIOL, V63, P300 WHITEHEAD A, 2001, IDS WORKING PAPER, V134, P1 WHITESIDE M, 2000, AGR RES EXTENSION NE, V99, P1 NR 46 TC 0 J9 RURAL SOCIOL BP 167 EP 187 PY 2005 PD JUN VL 70 IS 2 GA 958EJ UT ISI:000231427200002 ER PT J AU Murphy, AB TI The role of geography in public debate SO PROGRESS IN HUMAN GEOGRAPHY LA English DT Editorial Material C1 Univ Oregon, Eugene, OR 97403 USA. Michigan State Univ, E Lansing, MI 48824 USA. Clark Univ, Worcester, MA 01610 USA. Univ So Calif, Los Angeles, CA 90089 USA. Univ British Columbia, Vancouver, BC V5Z 1M9, Canada. RP Murphy, AB, Univ Oregon, Eugene, OR 97403 USA. AB Many geographers work on matters of great relevance for the issues facing society, but geography is rarely invoked in public debates over matters of contemporary concern. As a result, geographical perspectives are often missing from public discourse, and outmoded conceptions of geography are reinforced. This forum considers the importance and challenge of addressing this state of affairs. Four distinguished geographers who have been involved in different ways with the effort to raise geography's profile consider the possibilities and limitations of enhancing geography's public profile. Consideration is given to the prospects for raising the discipline's visibility in high-profile public venues, the role of geography in organized international research endeavors, the challenge of linking what geographers do to social activism, and the importance of questioning the unproblematized geographical ideas and discursive norms that already circulate in the public arena. 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V10, P551 KUHN T, 1962, STRUCTURE SCI REVOLU LAKE RW, 1992, ENVIRON PLANN A, V24, P663 LAKOFF G, 1996, MORAL POLITICS LANDES D, 1998, WEALTH POVERTY NATIO LEWIS M, 1997, MYTH CONTINENTS CRIT LINEBAUGH P, 2000, MANY HEADED HYDRA LIVERMAN DM, 2004, GUARDIAN, V1, P14 LOCKMAN Z, 2004, BATTLES US MIDDLE E LOMBORG B, 2001, SKEPTICAL ENV MAKHIJANI A, 1995, MENDING OZONE HOLE S MARX K, 1845, SELECTED WORKS, V1, P15 MARX K, 1867, CAPITAL, V1, P283 MASSEY D, 1994, SPACE PLACE GENDER MASSEY D, 2001, PROG HUM GEOG, V25, P5 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 MEARNS R, 1996, LIE LAND CHALLENGING MICHAELS P, 2000, SATANIC GASES CLEARI MONMONIER M, 1996, LIE MAPS MURPHY AB, 2003, AAG NEWSLETTER, V38, P3 MURPHY AB, 2004, AAG NEWSLETTER, V39, P3 NEGRI A, 1968, REVOLTUION RETRIEVED, P43 OTUATHAIL G, 2003, ANTIPODE, P856 PATTERSON O, 1982, SLAVERY SOCIAL DEATH PELLING M, 2004, REDUCING DISASTER RI PRASHAD V, 2003, OUT BOUNDS MAGAZINE PRATT G, 1987, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V77, P652 PULIDO L, 2000, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V90, P12 REYNOLDS JE, 2002, GLOBAL DESERTIFICATI ROBINSON C, 1982, BLACK MARXISM MAKING ROCHELEAU D, 1988, AGROFORESTRY DRYLAND ROCHELEAU D, 1996, FEMINIST POLITICAL E ROCHELEAU D, 1997, WORLD DEV, V25, P1351 RYCENGA J, 1992, THESIS GRADUATE THEO, P261 SACHS J, 2000, 1 US NAV WAR COLL SAID E, 1978, ORIENTALISM SAID E, 1993, CULTURE IMPERIALISM SAID E, 2004, HUMANISM DEMOCRATIC SCHNEIDER SH, 2001, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V91, P338 SMITH A, 2002, THESIS U CALIFORNIA SMITH N, 1992, SOCIAL TEXT, V33, P55 SOLIS P, 2004, AAG NEWSLETTER, V39, P9 SONTAG S, 2003, REGARDING PAIN OTHER STEFFEN W, 2004, GLOBAL CHANGE EARTH TURNER BL, 1990, EARTH TRANSFORMED HU TURNER BL, 1997, GEOGR J 2, V163, P133 TURNER BL, 2003, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V100, P8074 TURSE N, 2004, Z COMMUNICATIONS WALLERSTEIN I, 1991, UNTHINKING SOCIAL SC WARNER M, 2002, PUBLICS COUNTER PUBL WARNER M, 2003, JUST BEING DIFFICULT, P106 WEART SR, 2003, DISCOVERY GLOBAL WAR WHITE GF, 1985, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V75, P10 WILFORD J, 2001, OP SESS ASS AM GEOGR WISNER B, 2001, DISASTERS, V25, P251 WOLCH J, 1989, SHADOW STATE GOVT VO ZELINSKY W, 1987, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V77, P651 NR 132 TC 7 J9 PROG HUM GEOGR BP 165 EP 193 PY 2005 PD APR VL 29 IS 2 GA 929AN UT ISI:000229314600004 ER PT J AU Schendel, EK Schreier, H Lavkulich, LM TI Linkages between phosphorus index estimates and environmental quality indicators SO JOURNAL OF SOIL AND WATER CONSERVATION LA English DT Article C1 Univ British Columbia, Inst Resources Environm & Sustainabil, Vancouver, BC V5Z 1M9, Canada. RP Schendel, EK, Univ British Columbia, Inst Resources Environm & Sustainabil, Vancouver, BC V5Z 1M9, Canada. AB A growing concern over water quality in agricultural areas highlights phosphorus (P) as a key constituent in eutrophication and degrading water quality. A preliminary analysis is presented that tests the effectiveness of P index predictions using linkages to sediment and surface water P concentrations. The field P status in the Elk Creek watershed is described according to P inputs by land managers, soil characteristics, and sediment and water quality analyses. The watershed is partitioned into contributing areas, and the available P in soils shows an increase in concentration in the downstream direction. The P index ratings also show an increase in vulnerability for P loss from soil to surface waters in the lower part of the watershed. The rankings are in agreement with the intensity of land use, and this is reflected in the increase in predominance of the source factors as the main contributor to the D index ratings. In spite of complex process interaction associated with sediment movement, the stream sediment showed similar trends to the soils and P index ratings. Increases in total P in wet-season stream water at the outlet of the watershed may indicate the downstream cumulative effects predicted by the P index ratings. 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ER PT J AU Peterson, GD TI Political ecology and ecological resilience: An integration of human and ecological dynamics SO ECOLOGICAL ECONOMICS LA English DT Article C1 Univ Calif Santa Barbara, Natl Ctr Ecol Anal & Synth, Santa Barbara, CA 93101 USA. RP Peterson, GD, Univ Wisconsin, Ctr Limnol, 680 N Pk St, Madison, WI 53706 USA. AB The biosphere is increasingly dominated by human action. Consequently, ecology must incorporate human behavior. Political ecology, as long as it includes ecology, is a powerful framework for integrating natural and social dynamics. In this paper I present a resilience-oriented approach to political ecology that integrates system dynamics, scale, and cross-scale interactions in both human and natural systems. This approach suggests that understanding the coupled dynamics of human-ecological systems allows the assessment of when systems are most vulnerable and most open to transformation. I use this framework to examine the political ecology of salmon in the Columbia River Basin. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. 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RP Penning-Rowsell, E, Middlesex Univ, Flood Hazard Res Ctr, Enfield EN3 4SF, Middx, England. AB Flood risk management policy in the UK is shifting away from simplistic flood defence towards 'living with floods' and 'making space for water', thereby accepting that significant flood damage and disruption will continue into the future. This highlights the need for efficient emergency response to flood events, as the first step towards recovery, yet we know very little about the resources and costs that this involves. This paper evaluates the severe flooding in the UK in autumn 2000, and shows that these costs are widely distributed, both geographically and institutionally. Geographically, they broadly match the incidence of property flooding, but they are much larger than we had hitherto appreciated, at approximately 15 per cent of total economic flood losses. The implication is that we should take this topic more seriously in the future than in the past, not see emergency response to floods and other disasters as a low-cost or even a cost-free option, and ensure that this effort is as effective as possible in facilitating post-event recovery. 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Univ Manitoba, Winnipeg, MB R3T 2N2, Canada. Chiang Mai Univ, Chiang Mai 50000, Thailand. Stockholm Univ, S-10691 Stockholm, Sweden. Natl Wildlife Federat, Vienna, VA 22184 USA. AB The empirical evidence in the papers in this special issue identifies pervasive and difficult cross-scale and cross-level interactions in managing the environment. The complexity of these interactions and the fact that both scholarship and management have only recently begun to address this complexity have provided the impetus for us to present one synthesis of scale and cross-scale dynamics. In doing so, we draw from multiple cases, multiple disciplines, and multiple perspectives. In this synthesis paper, and in the accompanying cases, we hypothesize that the dynamics of cross-scale and cross-level interactions are affected by the interplay between institutions at multiple levels and scales. We suggest that the advent of co-management structures and conscious boundary management that includes knowledge co-production, mediation, translation, and negotiation across scale-related boundaries may facilitate solutions to complex problems that decision makers have historically been unable to solve. CR *MILL EC ASS, 2005, EC HUM WELL BEING SY ADGER WN, 2001, DEV CHANGE, V32, P681 ADGER WN, 2005, ECOL SOC, V10, P9 BERKES F, 2002, DRAMA COMMONS, P293 BERKES F, 2002, PANARCHY UNDERSTANDI, P121 BERKES F, 2006, ECOL SOC, V11, P45 CARLSSON L, 2005, J ENVIRON MANAGE, V75, P65 CASH DW, 2000, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V10, P109 CASH DW, 2001, SCI TECHNOL HUM VAL, V26, P431 CASH DW, 2003, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V100, P8086 CLARK WC, 1987, FORECASTING SOCIAL N, P337 FOLKE C, 1998, PROBLEM FIT ECOSYSTE FOLKE C, 2002, RESILIENCE SUSTAINAB FOLKE C, 2005, ANNU REV ENV RESOUR, V30, P441 GADGIL M, 2003, NAVIGATING SOCIAL EC, P189 GIBBONS M, 1999, NATURE S, V402, C81 GIBSON C, 1997, SCALING ISSUES SOCIA GIBSON CC, 2000, ECOL ECON, V32, P217 GOLDMAN M, 1998, PRIVATIZING NATURE P GUNDERSON LH, 2002, PANARCHY UNDERSTANDI, V1, P1 GUSTON DH, 1999, SOC STUD SCI, V29, P87 GUSTON DH, 2001, SCI TECHNOL HUM VAL, V26, P399 HOLLING CS, 1986, SUSTAINABLE DEV BIOS, V1, P1 HOLLING CS, 1995, DEFINING MEASURING S, P65 KATES RW, 2001, SCIENCE, V292, P641 LANSING S, 1991, PRIESTS PROGRAMMERS LEBEL L, 2005, ECOL SOC, V10, P18 MEADOWCROFT J, 2002, LANDSCAPE URBAN PLAN, V61, P169 OLSSON P, 2004, ENVIRON MANAGE, V34, P75 OSTROM E, 1999, SCIENCE, V284, P282 OSTROM E, 2002, DRAME COMMONS PASTORSATORRAS R, 2001, PHYS REV LETT, V86, P3200 POLSKY C, 2005, DROUGHT WATER CRISES, P215 SCOTT JC, 1998, SEEING LIKE STATE CE SINGLETON S, 1998, CONSTRUCTING COOPERA STAR SL, 1989, SOC STUD SCI, V19, P387 WILBANKS TJ, 1999, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V43, P601 YOUNG O, 2006, ECOL SOC, V11, P27 YOUNG OR, 2003, I DIMENSIONS ENV CHA NR 39 TC 2 J9 ECOL SOC BP 8 PY 2006 PD DEC VL 11 IS 2 GA 123FD UT ISI:000243280800003 ER PT J AU Sparks, TH Croxton, PJ Collinson, N Taylor, PW TI Examples of phenological change, past and present, in UK farming SO ANNALS OF APPLIED BIOLOGY LA English DT Article C1 NERC Ctr Ecol & Hydrol, Huntingdon PE28 2LS, Cambs, England. Woodland Trust, Grantham NG31 6LL, Lincolnshire, England. RP Sparks, TH, NERC Ctr Ecol & Hydrol, Monks Wood, Huntingdon PE28 2LS, Cambs, England. AB This paper examines a large number of agricultural and other phenological records kept by a fanner in Sussex, UK from 1980 to 2000. Twenty five of the 29 events were earlier in 1990-2000 than in 1980-1989. The average advancement of all 29 events was 5.5 days at a time when January-March mean temperature increased by 1.4 degrees C. In comparing the events with monthly mean temperatures, 18 of the events were significantly negatively related to temperatures of the three calendar months preceding the mean event date. Response rates to temperature varied between 4 and 12 days earlier for each degrees C warmer. A comparison with historical fanning records reveals that many of the current farming events appear as responsive to temperature now as they were 200 years ago. CR ABUASAB MS, 2001, BIODIVERS CONSERV, V10, P597 BEEBEE TJC, 1995, NATURE, V374, P219 BURTON JF, 2003, ATALANTA, V34, P3 CHMIELEWSKI FM, 2004, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V121, P69 CRICK HQP, 1999, NATURE, V399, P423 FITTER AH, 2002, SCIENCE, V296, P1689 HANKS GR, 1996, J HORTIC SCI BIOTECH, V71, P517 HULME M, 2002, CLIMATE CHANGE SCENA LEHIKOINEN E, 2004, ADV ECOL RES, V35, P1 MARGARY ID, 1926, Q J ROY METEOR SOC, V52, P27 MATSUMOTO K, 2003, GLOBAL CHANGE BIOL, V9, P1634 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 MENZEL A, 1999, NATURE, V397, P659 PARKER DE, 1992, INT J CLIMATOL, V12, P317 RUSSELL SC, 1921, Q J ROY METEOR SOC, V47, P57 SPARKS T, 2002, CLIMATE CHANGE IMPAC, P69 SPARKS TH, 1999, ESSEX BIRD REP, P154 SPARKS TH, 2000, INT J BIOMETEOROL, V44, P82 SPARKS TH, 2002, INT J CLIMATOL, V22, P1715 SPARKS TH, 2002, WEATHER, V57, P157 WILLIAMS TA, 2004, OECOLOGIA, V138, P122 ZHOU XL, 1995, GLOBAL CHANGE BIOL, V1, P303 NR 22 TC 2 J9 ANN APPL BIOL BP 531 EP 537 PY 2005 VL 146 IS 4 GA 958RO UT ISI:000231465600014 ER PT J AU Mossler, M TI Environmental hazard analysis and small island states: Rethinking academic approaches SO GEOGRAPHISCHE ZEITSCHRIFT LA English DT Article RP Mossler, M, RUTGERS STATE UNIV,DEPT GEOG,LUCY STONE HALL,LIVINGSTON CAMPUS,POB 5080,NEW BRUNSWICK,NJ 08903. 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RP Sheridan, SC, Kent State Univ, Dept Geog, Kent, OH 44242 USA. AB Few studies have examined heat vulnerability on a sub-metropolitan area level. This paper presents an analysis of heat vulnerability across Ohio (USA) on a county level. Each county is classified as 'urban', 'suburban', or 'rural'. Four different criteria defining what is meteorologically 'oppressive' are evaluated individually. Each of these criteria is associated with an increase in mortality of several percent statewide. Absolute increases in mortality are greatest across urban counties, as expected. When these values are evaluated as a percentage increase in mortality, rural and suburban counties actually show a greater response. The differences among the 3 groups are not statistically significant. This research thus suggests that merely being an urban resident does not make one more vulnerable to heat. CR *CDC, 2002, MORBIDITY MORTALITY, V51, P567 *NAT ASS SYNTH TEA, 2000, CLIM CHANG IMP US PO, P102 *NAT CLIM DAT CTR, 2002, BILL DOLL WEATH DIS DAVIS RE, 2002, CLIMATE RES, V22, P175 ELLIS FP, 1972, ENVIRON RES, V5, P51 ELLIS FP, 1978, ENVIRON RES, V15, P504 FISHER RA, 1935, DESIGN EXPT FORTIN MJ, 2002, ENCY ENVIRONMETRICS, P399 GREENBERG JH, 1983, AM J PUBLIC HEALTH, V73, P805 KALKSTEIN LS, 1987, EPA SCI ADVISORY COM, P122 KALKSTEIN LS, 1989, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V79, P44 KALKSTEIN LS, 1991, ENVIRON HEALTH PERSP, V96, P145 KALKSTEIN LS, 1996, B AM METEOROL SOC, V77, P1519 KALKSTEIN LS, 1997, ENVIRON HEALTH PERSP, V105, P84 KILBOURNE EM, 1997, PUBLIC HLTH CONSEQUE, P245 KUNKEL KE, 1999, B AM METEOROL SOC, V80, P1077 MCGEEHIN MA, 2001, ENVIRON HEALTH PE S2, V109, P185 OECHSLI FW, 1970, ENVIRON RES, V3, P277 OTT RL, 1993, INTRO STAT METHODS D ROGERSON PA, 2001, STAT METHODS GEOGRAP SCHMIDLIN TW, 1996, THUNDER HEARTLAND CH SHERIDAN SC, 1998, WORLD RESOURCE REV, V10, P375 SHERIDAN SC, 2000, BIOMETEOROLOGY URBAN, P487 SHERIDAN SC, 2002, INT J CLIMATOL, V22, P51 SMOYER KE, 1998, SOC SCI MED, V47, P1809 STEADMAN RG, 1979, J APPL METEOROL, V18, P861 TOL RSJ, 2002, ENVIRON RESOUR ECON, V21, P135 WHITMAN S, 1997, AM J PUBLIC HEALTH, V87, P1515 NR 28 TC 0 J9 CLIMATE RES BP 255 EP 265 PY 2003 PD SEP 19 VL 24 IS 3 GA 744JV UT ISI:000186626300006 ER PT J AU Alexandrov, VA Hoogenboom, G TI Vulnerability and adaptation assessments of agricultural crops under climate change in the Southeastern USA SO THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY LA English DT Review C1 Natl Meteorol & Hydrol, BG-1784 Sofia, Bulgaria. Univ Georgia, Griffin, GA 30223 USA. RP Hoogenboom, G, Natl Meteorol & Hydrol, BG-1784 Sofia, Bulgaria. AB It is expected that a change in climatic conditions due to global warming will directly impact agricultural production. Most climate change studies have been applied at very large scales, in which regions were represented by only one or two weather stations, which were mainly located at airports of major cities. The objective of this study was to determine the potential impact of climate change at a local level, taking into account weather data recorded at remote locations. Daily weather data for a 30-year period were obtained for more than 500 sites, representing the southeastern region of the USA. Climate change scenarios, using transient and equilibrium global circulation models (GCM), were defined, created and applied to the daily historical weather data. The modified temperature, precipitation and solar radiation databases corresponding to each of the climate change scenarios were used to run the CERES v.3.5 simulation model for maize and winter wheat and the CROPGRO v.3.5 model for soybean and peanut. The GCM scenarios projected a shorter duration of the crop-growing season. Under the current level of CO2, the GCM scenarios projected a decrease of crop yields in the 2020s. When the direct effects of CO2 were assumed in the study, the scenarios resulted in an increase in soybean and peanut yield. Under equilibrium 2 x CO2, the GCM climate change scenarios projected a decrease of maize and winter wheat yield. The indirect effects of climate change also tended to decrease soybean and peanut yield. However, when the direct effects of CO2 were included, most of the scenarios resulted in an increase in legume yields. Possible changes in sowing data, hybrids and cultivar selection, and fertilization were considered as adaptation options to mitigate the potential negative impact of potential warming. 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Univ Liverpool, Inst Sustainable Water Integrated Management & Ec, Liverpool L69 3BX, Merseyside, England. Aquat Ecosyst Unit UEA IRTA, Sant Carels Rapita 03540, Catalonia, Spain. RP Day, JW, Louisiana State Univ, Sch Coast & Environm, Dept Oceanog & Coastal Sci, Baton Rouge, LA 70803 USA. 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RP Boland, A, Univ Washington, Dept Geog, Seattle, WA 98195 USA. AB Following the release of the 1994 report 'Who will feed China?' by the Worldwatch Institute, there has been much debate over the implications of China's growing demand for grain. The question of China's food production has elicited a variety of responses. While for some it raises the specter of regional and global instability as China becomes an environmental threat, for others the entrance of China into the world market promises increased trade and profits. In this paper I explore the responses in China and the US to the different notions of interdependence which have shaped the debate. I first turn to how concerns over China's food supply have, despite appeals to the concepts of global environmental and economic interdependence, become linked to classical state-centered geopolitical concerns such as 'sovereignty' and 'containment.' I then look at how the debate has also been actively distanced from national security concerns through the invocation of an alternative interdependence founded on the logic of commerce. I conclude by arguing for the need within critical geopolitics to further examine the circulation of strategic texts between and within states, particularly in the analysis of texts that map worlds beyond the boundaries of North America and Europe. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. 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English DT Article C1 Univ New Hampshire, Inst Study Earth Oceans & Space, Complex Syst Res Ctr, Water Syst Anal Grp, Durham, NH 03824 USA. Purdue Univ, Dept Agron, W Lafayette, IN 47907 USA. Purdue Univ, Dept Earth & Atmospher Sci, W Lafayette, IN 47907 USA. Colorado State Univ, Dept Atmospher Sci, Ft Collins, CO 80523 USA. Indian Inst Technol, Ctr Atmospher Sci, New Delhi 110016, India. RP Douglas, EM, Univ New Hampshire, Inst Study Earth Oceans & Space, Complex Syst Res Ctr, Water Syst Anal Grp, 39 Coll Rd, Durham, NH 03824 USA. AB We present a conceptual synthesis of the impact that agricultural activity in India can have on land-atmosphere interactions through irrigation. We illustrate a "bottom up'' approach to evaluate the effects of land use change on both physical processes and human vulnerability. We compared vapor fluxes ( estimated evaporation and transpiration) from a pre-agricultural and a contemporary land cover and found that mean annual vapor fluxes have increased by 17% (340 km(3)) with a 7% increase (117 km(3)) in the wet season and a 55% increase ( 223 km(3)) in the dry season. Two thirds of this increase was attributed to irrigation, with groundwater-based irrigation contributing 14% and 35% of the vapor fluxes in the wet and dry seasons, respectively. The area averaged change in latent heat flux across India was estimated to be 9 Wm(-2). The largest increases occurred where both cropland and irrigated lands were the predominant contemporary land uses. CR *CWC, 1998, WAT REL STAT REP *NAT RES COUNC, 2005, RAD FORC CLIM CHANG ADEGOKE JO, 2003, MON WEATHER REV, V131, P556 ALAPATY K, 2001, J APPL METEOROL, V40, P2068 AVISSAR R, 1996, J GEOPHYS RES-ATMOS, V101, P7499 BANSIL PC, 2004, WATER MANAGEMENT IND CHANDA TK, 2003, FERTILIZER STAT 2002 CHASE TN, 2003, NAT HAZARDS, V29, P229 DEROSNAY P, 2003, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V30 FROLKING S, 2006, FIELD CROP RES, V98, P164 FU C, 2004, VEGETATION WATER HUM, P115 GORDON LJ, 2005, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V102, P7612 KABAT P, 2004, VEGETATION WATER HUM LOHAR D, 1995, J CLIMATE, V8, P2567 MARSHALL CH, 2004, MON WEATHER REV, V132, P28 MELILLO JM, 1993, NATURE, V363, P234 NEW M, 2000, J CLIMATE, V13, P2217 NIYOGI D, 2000, THESIS NC STATE U RA NIYOGI D, 2002, WEATHER CLIMATE MODE, P132 NIYOGI DDS, 2002, J HYDROMETEOROL, V3, P39 PIELKE RA, 1974, MON WEATHER REV, V102, P115 PIELKE RA, 2001, REV GEOPHYS, V39, P151 PIELKE RA, 2003, P INDIAN NATL SCI AC, V69, P107 PIELKE RA, 2004, IGBP NEWSL, V59, P16 PIELKE RA, 2004, VEGETATION WATER HUM, P483 PIELKE RA, 2006, IN PRESS AGR FOR MET RAMANKUTTY N, 1999, GLOBAL BIOGEOCHEM CY, V13, P997 SAMPAT P, 2000, DEEP TROUBLE HIDDEN SEGAL M, 1989, MON WEATHER REV, V117, P809 SHAH T, 2000, GLOBAL GROUNDWATER S SHUTTLEWORTH WJ, 1985, Q J ROY METEOR SOC, V111, P839 SINGH DK, 2002, INT J WATER RESOUR D, V18, P563 VOROSMARTY CJ, 1998, J HYDROL, V207, P147 NR 33 TC 0 J9 GEOPHYS RES LETT PY 2006 PD JUL 21 VL 33 IS 14 GA 071DF UT ISI:000239577500006 ER PT J AU Haines, PE Tomlinson, RB Thom, BG TI Morphometric assessment of intermittently open/closed coastal lagoons in New South Wales, Australia SO ESTUARINE COASTAL AND SHELF SCIENCE LA English DT Article C1 WBM Ocean Australia, Broadmeadows, NSW 2292, Australia. Griffith Univ, Griffith Ctr Coastal Management, Southport, Qld 4215, Australia. NSW Dept Infrastruct Planning & Nat Resources, Sydney, NSW 2000, Australia. RP Haines, PE, WBM Ocean Australia, 126 Belford St, Broadmeadows, NSW 2292, Australia. AB This paper provides a framework for the assessment of the natural sensitivity of coastal lagoons to anthropogenic and other external inputs. The assessment framework is based on analysis and consideration of morphometric characteristics, and is demonstrated in this paper using eight example intermittently open coastal lagoons from New South Wales, Australia. The framework presented extends to a rudimentary classification of the eight example coastal lagoons, relative to the other 70 or so intermittently open coastal lagoons in NSW, which can be used to provide an indication of the relative importance of these lagoons with respect to future management, such as remediation or conservation. Morphometry describes the physical geographic characteristics of waterways such as coastal lagoons. Morphometric parameters are relatively easy to determine, as they essentially describe the physical and topographic features of waterways. Morphometry therefore provides a simple means to define the natural sensitivity, or vulnerability, of individual systems to external loads and other artificial (primarily anthropogenic) modifications. Morphometric parameters, such as waterway area, waterway volume, waterway shape and the proportion of time that the entrance is either open or closed to the ocean, have been used to define three separate factors that each measures one aspect of the natural sensitivity, or vulnerability, of a coastal lagoon to external loads and other inputs. The first factor (called the Evacuation Factor) is a measure of how efficiently a coastal lagoon can remove pollutants and other inputs through tidal flushing (i.e. the tidal flushing efficiency). The second factor (called the Dilution Factor) is a measure of the relative difference between the input loads from the catchment and the resident volume of the coastal lagoon. The third factor (called the Assimilation Factor) is a measure of the water level variability in a coastal lagoon, which can subsequently influence the extent and diversity of biological processes and their capacity to assimilate or accommodate external inputs. The morphometric-based assessment and classification framework presented in this paper could be applied to any country that contains a series of similar coastal lagoons that have intermittent connections to the ocean and which requires a relative assessment for prioritisation of future management and planning. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *OECD, 1993, 83 ENV MON BARNES RSK, 1980, COASTAL LAGOONS NATU BOYD R, 1992, SEDIMENT GEOL, V80, P139 DALRYMPLE RW, 1992, J SEDIMENT PETROL, V62, P1130 DIGBY MJ, 1999, 1699 CTR COAST MAN S DUNCAN HP, 1999, URBAN STORMWATER QUA, P10 DYE A, 2005, ESTUAR COAST SHELF S, V64, P357 DYE AH, 2005, MAR FRESHWATER RES, V56, P1055 DYER KR, 1997, ESTUARIES PHYSICAL I, P165 GRIFFITHS SP, 1999, INT J SALT LAKE RES, V8, P307 HARRIS PT, 2002, J SEDIMENT RES, V72, P858 JONES MV, 2005, ESTUAR COAST SHELF S, V64, P277 KJERFVE B, 1994, ELSEVIER OCEANOG SER, V60, P1 POLLARD DA, 1994, ESTUARIES, V17, P631 ROY PS, 1984, DEV COASTAL GEOMORPH, P99 ROY PS, 2001, ESTUAR COAST SHELF S, V53, P351 TESKE PR, 2001, HYDROBIOLOGIA, V464, P227 WHITFIELD AK, 1997, AQUAT CONSERV, V7, P1 NR 18 TC 0 J9 ESTUAR COAST SHELF SCI BP 321 EP 332 PY 2006 PD MAR VL 67 IS 1-2 GA 019RK UT ISI:000235854200027 ER PT J AU Davidson, O Halsnaes, K Huq, S Kok, M Metz, B Sokona, Y Verhagen, J TI The development and climate nexus: the case of sub-Saharan Africa SO CLIMATE POLICY LA English DT Article C1 Univ Cape Town, EDRC, ZA-7700 Rondebosch, South Africa. UNEP, Collaborating Ctr Energy & Environm, Roskilde, Denmark. IIED, London, England. Natl Inst Publ Hlth & Environm, RIVM, NL-3720 BA Bilthoven, Netherlands. ENDA, Environm & Dev Tiers Monde, Dakar, Senegal. Wageningen UR, Plant Res Int, Wageningen, Netherlands. RP Kok, M, Univ Cape Town, EDRC, ZA-7700 Rondebosch, South Africa. AB This paper explores an alternative approach to future climate policies in developing countries. Although climate change seems marginal compared to the pressing issues of poverty alleviation and economic development, it is becoming clear that the realisation of development goals may be hampered by climate change. However, development can be shaped in such a way as to achieve its goals and at the same time reduce vulnerability to climate change, thereby facilitating sustainable development that realises economic, social, local and global environmental goals. This approach has been coined the 'development first approach', in which a future climate regime should focus on development strategies with ancillary climate benefits and increase the capability of developing countries to implement these. This is anticipated to offer a possible positive way out of the current deadlock between North and South in the climate negotiations. First, elements are presented for an integrated approach to development and climate; second, the approach is elaborated for food and energy security in sub-Saharan Africa; and third, possibilities are outlined for international mechanisms to support such integrated development and climate strategies. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *AFR DEV BANK, 2003, POV CLIM CHANG RED V *AICHA, 2002, CUTT HUNG AFR SMALLH *EU, 2003, CLIM CHANG CONT DEV *FAO, 2002, STAT FOOD INS WORLD *IEA, 2002, WORLD EN OUTL 2002 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 *IPCC, 2001, CLIM CHANG 2001 SYNT *IUCN IISD SEI, 2003, LIV CLIM CHANG *NEPAD, 2001, NEW PARTN AFR DEV *OECD, 2001, SUST DEV CRIT ISS *OECD, 2002, DEV CLIM PROJ CONC P *OECD, 2002, INT RIO CONV DEV COO *OSCAL, 2001, EN SUST DEV LEAST DE *UN, 2002, JOH PLAN IMPL *UNDP, 2000, WORLD EN ASS EN CHAL *UNEP, 2002, UNEPGCSSVII2 *UNFCCC, 2001, FCCCSBI200114ADD1 *UNFCCC, 2002, FCCCSBI200216 *WORLD BANK, 2003, WORLD DEV REP 2003 S BEG N, 2002, CLIM POLICY, V2, P129 BENMOHAMED A, 2002, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V54, P327 BIAGINI B, 2000, CONFRONTING CLIMATE BREMAN H, 2001, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V11, P58 BRUINSMA J, 2003, WORLD AGR 2015 2030 CHANDLER W, 2002, CLIMATE CHANGE MITIG DALALCLAYTON B, 2002, SUSTAINABLE DEV STRA DASGUPTA, 1993, INQUIRY WELL BEING D DAVIDSON O, 2002, CLIMATE CHANGE SUSTA DAVIDSON O, 2002, THINK BIGGER ACT FAS DAVIDSON O, 2003, S AFRICAN ENERGY FUT DENTON F, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE SUSTA DODDS SEH, 2002, INT SUSTAINABLE DEV EVANS LT, 1998, FEEDING 10 BILLION P FARINELLI U, 1999, ENERGY TOOL SUSTAINA FUDUKAPARR S, 2002, CAPACITY DEV NEW SOL GOLDENBERG J, 1999, PROMOTING DEV WHILE GUPTA J, 2002, ASIAN DILEMMA DUTCH HALSNAES K, 2002, CLIMATE CHANGE SUSTA HALSNAES K, 2002, P SUST DEV CLIM CHAN HALSNAES K, 2003, LINKAGES DEV CLIMATE HUQ S, 2003, MAINSTREAMING ADAPTA JONES T, 2002, INT ENV AGREEMENTS P, V2, P389 JONGSCHAAP R, 2001, CLIMATE PREDICTION A, P109 KARAKEZI S, 2002, ENERG POLICY, V30, P915 KLEIN RJT, 2001, ADAPTATION CLIMATE C METZ B, 2002, CLIM POLICY, V2, P211 OTT HE, 2002, YB INT ENV LAW, V13 RINGIUS L, 2002, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V54, P471 SAMIENGO J, 2002, OPTIONS PROTECTING C SHUKLA PR, 2003, DEV CLIMATE ASSESSME SOKONA Y, 2003, DEV CLIMATE PROJECT WINKLER H, 2002, OPTIONS PROTECTING C NR 52 TC 0 J9 CLIM POLICY BP S97 EP S113 PY 2003 VL 3 GA 761BN UT ISI:000187879500008 ER PT J AU JONES, D TI ENVIRONMENTAL HAZARDS IN THE 1990S - PROBLEMS, PARADIGMS AND PROSPECTS SO GEOGRAPHY LA English DT Article RP JONES, D, UNIV LONDON LONDON SCH ECON & POLIT SCI,LONDON WC2A 2AE,ENGLAND. CR *ROY SOC, 1992, RISK AN PERC MAN BRYANT EA, 1991, NATURAL HAZARDS BURTON I, 1978, ENV HAZARD, V1, P1 CUNY FC, 1983, DISASTERS DEV HEWITT K, 1983, INTERPRETATIONS CALA JONES DKC, 1991, GLOBAL CHANGE CHALLE, P27 LANE FW, 1966, ELEMENTS RAGE MCCALL GJH, 1992, GEOHAZARDS NATURAL M SMITH K, 1992, ENV HAZARDS WHITTOW J, 1980, DISASTERS WIJKMAN A, 1984, NATURAL DISASTERS AC NR 11 TC 2 J9 GEOGRAPHY BP 161 EP 165 PY 1993 PD APR VL 78 IS 339 GA LC459 UT ISI:A1993LC45900009 ER PT J AU Bijker, WE TI American and Dutch coastal engineering: Differences in risk conception and differences in technological culture SO SOCIAL STUDIES OF SCIENCE LA English DT Editorial Material C1 Maastricht Univ, Fac Arts & Social Sci, NL-6200 MD Maastricht, Netherlands. RP Bijker, WE, Maastricht Univ, Fac Arts & Social Sci, POB 616, NL-6200 MD Maastricht, Netherlands. CR BIJKER EW, 1996, HIST HERITAGE COASTA, P390 BIJKER WE, 2002, TECHNOL CULT, V43, P569 BIJKER WE, 2006, CULTURES TECHNOLOGY, P52 DDOOLAARD A, 1948, ROLL BACK SEA NOVEL DDOOLAARD A, 1948, VERJAAGDE WATER FERGUSON HA, 1991, DIALOOG NORDZEE 2000 HUGHES TP, 1983, NETWORKS POWER ELECT KAIJSER A, 2002, TECHNOL CULT, V43, P521 MUKERJI C, 2007, SOC STUD SCI, V37, P127 VIERLINGH A, 1973, TRACTAET DYCKAGIE WETMORE JM, 2007, SOC STUD SCI, V37, P119 WIEGEL RL, 1996, HIST HERITAGE COASTA, P513 NR 12 TC 1 J9 SOC STUD SCI BP 143 EP 151 PY 2007 PD FEB VL 37 IS 1 GA 140UT UT ISI:000244532900013 ER PT J AU Huang, JCK TI Climate change and integrated coastal management: a challenge for small island nations SO OCEAN & COASTAL MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article C1 US Country Studies Program, Washington, DC 20585 USA. RP Huang, JCK, US Country Studies Program, 1000 Independence Ave,SW,PO-6, Washington, DC 20585 USA. AB The US Country Studies Program (US CSP) is parr of the United States' contribution to the objectives of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) by providing financial and technical support to developing and economically transitional countries to carry out their country studies in order to address issues on climate change The Country Studies results will be the scientific and technical bases for planning their climate change national action plans which will be implemented for future national communications and will eventually be required by the UNFCCC. Among the 56 countries supported by the US CSP there are strong oceanic and coastal vulnerability and adaptation projects in 41 country studies For the eight small island nations in the program, integrated coastal management (ICM) is the recommended adaptation strategy as the essential part of their climate change national action plans. This paper reviews the difficulties and challenges facing small island starts as they attempt to address climate change impacts on their environments, cultures, societies and economics. The paper draws on presentations and discussions taking place at a Regional Workshop for Pacific Island Nations taking place in Honolulu, Hawaii in September 1994 sponsored by the US Country Studies Program. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. 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UNIV S CAROLINA,DEPT GEOG,COLUMBIA,SC 29208. AB This article examines the increasing hazardousness of places as a consequence of natural disasters, technological failures and chronic environmental degradation on a global scale. The first part of the article describes the trends and impacts of environmental hazards, including their frequency, magnitude and damage on both a regional and an international scale. The article then details some of the confounding issues affecting hazard vulnerability including population change, urbanization, technological innovation, industrialization and wealth inequities. It concludes with a discussion on differential adjustments to environmental hazards and ways in which to improve the human condition. CR 1991, NY TIMES 1022 1995, NY TIMES 1006, A12 *INT FED RED CROSS, 1995, WORLD DIS REP *UN ENV PROGR, 1993, ENV DAT REP 1993 94 BALIKIE P, 1994, RISK NATURAL HAZARDS CUTTER SL, 1993, LIVIGN RISK GEOGRAPH CUTTER SL, 1994, ENV RISKS HAZARDS CUTTER SL, 1995, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V5, P181 DOMEISEN N, 1995, STOP DISASTERS, V34, P7 JOHNSON BB, 1987, SOCIAL CULTURAL CONS KASPERSON RE, 1988, RISK ANAL, V8, P177 KASPERSON RE, 1992, SOCIAL THEORIES RISK, P153 KATES RW, 1985, ISSUES SCI TECHNOL, V2, P46 KATES RW, 1992, ENVIRONMENT, V34, P25 KATES RW, 1992, ENVIRONMENT, V34, P4 KIRBY A, 1990, NOTHING FEAR RISKS H KRIMSKY S, 1992, SOCIAL THEORIES RISK LIVERMAN DM, 1990, UNDERSTANDING GLOBAL, V1, P27 MELLOR JW, 1988, ENVIRONMENT, V30, P28 MELLOR JW, 1988, ENVIRONMENT, V30, P8 MITCHELL JK, 1989, GEOGR REV, V79, P391 MITCHELL JK, 1990, NOTHING FEAR RISKS H, P131 ORIORDAN T, 1986, GEOGRAPHY RESOURCES, V2, P272 PALM RL, 1990, HAZARDS INTEGRATIVE SHOWALTER PS, 1993, 83 U COL NAT HAZ RES TOLBA MK, 1992, WORLD ENV 1972 1992 TURNER BL, 1990, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V1, P14 ZIEGLER DJ, 1983, TECHNOLOGIAL HAZARDS NR 28 TC 1 J9 INT SOC SCI J BP 525 EP & PY 1996 PD DEC VL 48 IS 4 GA VX676 UT ISI:A1996VX67600007 ER PT J AU Tol, RSJ TI Emission abatement versus development as strategies to reduce vulnerability to climate change: an application of FUND SO ENVIRONMENT AND DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS LA English DT Article C1 Univ Hamburg, Res Unit Sustainabil & Global Change, Hamburg, Germany. Ctr Marine & Atmospher Sci, Hamburg, Germany. Vrije Univ Amsterdam, Inst Environm Studies, NL-1081 HV Amsterdam, Netherlands. Carnegie Mellon Univ, Dept Engn & Publ Policy, Pittsburgh, PA 15213 USA. RP Tol, RSJ, Univ Hamburg, Res Unit Sustainabil & Global Change, Martinistr 52, Hamburg, Germany. AB Poorer countries are generally believed to be more vulnerable to climate change than richer countries because poorer countries are more exposed and have less adaptive capacity. This suggests that, in principle, there are two ways of reducing vulnerability to climate change: economic growth and greenhouse gas emission reduction. Using a complex climate change impact model, in which development is an important determinant of vulnerability, the hypothesis is tested whether development aid is more effective in reducing impacts than is emission abatement. The hypothesis is barely rejected for Asia but strongly accepted for Latin America and, particularly, Africa. The explanation for the difference is that development (aid) reduces vulnerabilities in some sectors (infectious diseases, water resources, agriculture) but increases vulnerabilities in others (cardiovascular diseases, energy consumption). However, climate change impacts are much higher in Latin America and Africa than in Asia, so that money spent on emission reduction for the sake of avoiding impacts in developing countries is better spent on vulnerability reduction in those countries. 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RP Shaw, DJB, Univ Birmingham, Sch Geog Earth & Environm Sci, Birmingham B15 2TT, W Midlands, England. AB The Russian geographical tradition of landscape science (landshaftovedenie) is analyzed with particular reference to its initiator, Lev Semenovich Berg (1876-1950). The differences between prevailing Russian and Western concepts of landscape in geography are discussed, and their common origins in German geographical thought in the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries are delineated. It is argued that the principal differences are accounted for by a number of factors, of which Russia's own distinctive tradition in environmental science deriving from the work of V. V. Dokuchaev (1846-1903), the activities of certain key individuals (such as Berg and C. O. Sauer), and the very different social and political circumstances in different parts of the world appear to be the most significant. At the same time it is noted that neither in Russia nor in the West have geographers succeeded in specifying an agreed and unproblematic understanding of landscape, or more broadly in promoting a common geographical conception of human-environment relationships. In light of such uncertainties, the latter part of the article argues for closer international links between the variant landscape traditions in geography as an important contribution to the quest for sustainability. 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2004, IZVESTIYA ROSSUSKO G, V4, P116 UHLIG H, 1973, WESEN LANDSCHAFT, P268 VEDENIN YA, 1997, OCHERKI GEOGRAFII IS VEDENIN YA, 2001, IZVESTIYA AKAD NAU G, V1, P7 VEDENIN YA, 2003, IZVESTIYA AKAD NAU G, V3, P7 VERNADSKII VI, 1998, BIOSPHERE VONHUMBOLDT A, 1849, COSMOS SKETCH PHYS D WINCHESTER HPM, 2003, LANDSCAPES WAYS IMAG ZABELIN IM, 1989, OCHERKI ISTORII GEOG ZAMYATIN DI, 2004, METAGEOGRAFIYA ZIMMERER K, 1996, CONCEPTS HUMAN GEOGR, P161 ZIMMERER KS, 1994, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V84, P108 ZUBAKOV VA, 2002, IZVESTIYA RUSSKOGO G, V134, P72 NR 134 TC 0 J9 ANN ASSN AMER GEOGR BP 111 EP 126 PY 2007 PD MAR VL 97 IS 1 GA 144DM UT ISI:000244775700007 ER PT J AU Connor, SE Thomas, I TI Sediments as archives of industrialisation: Evidence of atmospheric pollution in coastal wetlands of southern Sydney, Australia SO WATER AIR AND SOIL POLLUTION LA English DT Article C1 Univ Melbourne, Sch Anthropol Geog & Environm Studies, Parkville, Vic 3052, Australia. RP Connor, SE, Univ Melbourne, Sch Anthropol Geog & Environm Studies, Parkville, Vic 3052, Australia. AB The history of heavy metal pollution in southern Sydney was reconstructed from wetland sediments using chemical analysis. Seven wetlands along the Pacific coast were examined for present day concentrations of acid-extractable Cd, Cu, Fe, Pb and Zn. Additionally, four of these sites were cored in order to assess past levels of these metal contaminants, changes in organic content and magnetic susceptibility variations. The low nutrient status and closed catchments of the study sites suggested that the pollutants were predominantly derived from atmospheric sources. Surficial sediments were enriched with Cd, Cu, Fe, Pb and Zn levels 5.0, 16.4, 22.7, 8.2 and 22.5 times baseline levels, respectively. In some cases, the concentrations of trace metals were in excess of environmentally acceptable levels. The results show a strong spatial association between sources and levels of pollutants, and the increase in metals levels in sedimentary records corresponds well to documentary historical evidence. This study demonstrates the utility of coastal wetlands in the reconstruction of atmospheric pollution histories, and their particular vulnerability to contamination from airborne pollutants in urban areas. 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Univ Catholique Louvain, Dept Geog, B-1348 Louvain, Belgium. Silsoe Res Inst, Biomath Grp, Silsoe MK45 4HS, Beds, England. RP Berry, PM, Univ Oxford, Ctr Environm, Environm Change Inst, S Parks Rd,Dyson Perrins Bldg, Oxford OX1 3QY, England. AB The term vulnerability has been used in a variety of contexts, including climate change impact assessment. In this paper those issues relevant to climate change impacts on agriculture and species are discussed. Outputs from models are used to assess the vulnerability of fanners and species to climate and socio-economic change by estimating their sensitivity and capacity to adapt to external factors as a means of identifying what causes the differences in their vulnerability. The results showed that the vulnerability of both farmers and species is dependent on the scenario under consideration. In agriculture, it is the socio-economic scenarios that particularly lead to different patterns of intensification, extensification and abandonment. For species, vulnerability is more related to the climate change scenarios. In both cases, the adaptation options and potential were associated with the different socio-economic futures and policy intervention. The conceptual linking of the two sectors shows that impacts in the agriculture sector and consequent adaptation could have a significant effect on the adaptation potential of species. This demonstrates the importance of cross-sectoral assessments of vulnerability and highlights the importance of sectoral integration in policy development and implementation. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 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Duke Univ, Dept Biol, Durham, NC USA. Univ New Mexico, Dept Biol, Albuquerque, NM 87131 USA. Princeton Univ, Dept Ecol & Evolutionary Biol, Princeton, NJ 08544 USA. Ecol Soc Amer, Off Sci Programs, Washington, DC 20006 USA. David & Lucile Packard Fdn, Los Altos, CA USA. US Geol Survey, CERC, Columbia, MO USA. Johns Hopkins Univ, Dept Hist Sci & Technol, Baltimore, MD USA. Univ Calgary, Kananaskis Field Stn, Calgary, AB, Canada. AC, Inst Ecol, Dept Ecol Funct, Xalapa, Veracruz, Mexico. Stanford Univ, Hopkins Marine Stn, Dept Biol Sci, Pacific Grove, CA 93950 USA. Inst Ecosyst Studies, Millbrook, NY 12545 USA. Univ Michigan, Dept Ecol & Evolutionary Biol, Ann Arbor, MI 48109 USA. Univ Calif Santa Barbara, Dept Ecol Evolut & Marine Biol, Santa Barbara, CA 93106 USA. Univ Colorado, Dept Ecol & Evolutionary Biol, Boulder, CO 80309 USA. Univ Colorado, Inst Arctic & Alpine Res, Boulder, CO 80309 USA. Univ Wisconsin, Dept Zool, Madison, WI 53706 USA. RP Palmer, MA, Univ Maryland, Dept Entomol, College Pk, MD 20742 USA. AB Ecological science has contributed greatly to our understanding of the natural world and the impact of humans on that world. Now, we need to refocus the discipline towards research that ensures a future in which natural systems and the humans they include coexist on a more sustainable planet. Acknowledging that managed ecosystems and intensive exploitation of resources define our future, ecologists must play a greatly expanded role in communicating their research and influencing policy and decisions that affect the environment. To accomplish this, they will have to forge partnerships at scales and in forms they have not traditionally used. These alliances must act within three visionary areas: enhancing the extent to which decisions are ecologically informed; advancing innovative ecological research directed at the sustainability of the planet; and stimulating cultural changes within the science itself, thereby building a forward-looking and international ecology. We recommend: (1) a research initiative to enhance research project development, facilitate large-scale experiments and data collection, and link science to solutions; (2) procedures that will improve interactions among researchers, managers, and decision makers; and (3) efforts to build public understanding of the links between ecosystem services and humans. 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CR KASPERSON JX, 1995, REGIONS RISK, V1, P1 TURNER BL, 1993, POPULATION GROWTH AG TURNER BL, 1994, AMBIO, V23, P91 NR 3 TC 0 J9 ANN ASSN AMER GEOGR BP 729 EP 731 PY 1994 PD DEC VL 84 IS 4 GA QA066 UT ISI:A1994QA06600016 ER PT J AU Manson, S TI Land use in the southern Yucatan peninsular region of Mexico: Scenarios of population and institutional change SO COMPUTERS ENVIRONMENT AND URBAN SYSTEMS LA English DT Article C1 Univ Minnesota, Dept Geog, Minneapolis, MN 55455 USA. RP Manson, S, Univ Minnesota, Dept Geog, 414 Social Sci,267,19th Ave S, Minneapolis, MN 55455 USA. AB Land-use and land-cover change, human activity that results in altered land-use systems and surface features, defines the environmental and socioeconomic sustainability of communities around the globe. It is a key response to global environmental change in addition to being both a key cause and medium of this change. This article examines an application of the Southern Yucatdn Peninsular Region Integrated Assessment (SYPRIA), a scenario-based spatially explicit model designed to examine and project land use in Mexico. SYPRIA combines Geographic Information Systems (GIS) with agent-based modeling, cellular modeling, and genetic programming. The application examined here explores the effects on land-use and land-cover projections of scenarios that rely on varying assumptions pertaining to population growth, land-use trends, role of agrarian technology, and effects of resource institutions. This work also highlights the importance of understanding the many factors influencing land use, particularly population, different production systems, and the contextual nature of resource institutions in determining the nature of land use. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 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SO BULLETIN OF ENGINEERING GEOLOGY AND THE ENVIRONMENT LA English DT Review C1 Int Inst Geoinformat Sci & Earth Observ, ITC, Enschede, Netherlands. Univ Utrecht, Fac Geosci, Utrecht, Netherlands. RP van Westen, CJ, Int Inst Geoinformat Sci & Earth Observ, ITC, Enschede, Netherlands. AB The quantification of risk has gained importance in many disciplines, including landslide studies. The literature on landslide risk assessment illustrates the developments which have taken place in the last decade and that quantitative risk assessment is feasible for geotechnical engineering on a site investigation scale and the evaluation of linear features (e.g., pipelines, roads). However, the generation of quantitative risk zonation maps for regulatory and development planning by local authorities still seems a step too far, especially at medium scales (1:10,000-1:50,000). This paper reviews the problem of attempting to quantify landslide risk over larger areas, discussing a number of difficulties related to the generation of landslide inventory maps including information on date, type and volume of the landslide, the determination of its spatial and temporal probability, the modelling of runout and the assessment of landslide vulnerability. An overview of recent developments in the different approaches to landslide hazard and risk zonation at medium scales is given. The paper concludes with a number of new advances and challenges for the future, such as the use of very detailed topographic data, the generation of event-based landslide inventory maps, the use of these maps in spatial-temporal probabilistic modelling and the use of land use and climatic change scenarios in deterministic modelling. 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V24, P3523 ZEZERE JL, 2004, LANDSLIDES EVALUATIO, V1, P117 ZHOU G, 2003, ENG GEOL, V68, P373 NR 121 TC 0 J9 BULL ENG GEOL ENVIRON BP 167 EP 184 PY 2006 PD MAY VL 65 IS 2 GA 048JC UT ISI:000237942400005 ER PT J AU Thompson, M TI The new world disorder: Is environmental security the cure? SO MOUNTAIN RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT LA English DT Article C1 Musgrave Inst, London N5 2UX, England. Univ Bergen, Bergen, Norway. Norwegian Res Ctr Org & Management, Bergen, Norway. RP Thompson, M, Musgrave Inst, 52 Northolme Rd, London N5 2UX, England. AB Environmental security, as currently conceived., is rooted in the assumption that it is increasing populations, combined with static or declining resource bases, that are the real cause of most current and future conflicts. This is simply the restatement, on the global level, of a local theory-The Theory of Himalayan Environmental Degradation-which we already know is invalid. This does not mean that the environment is irrelevant to security, and that human ingenuity will always create resources sufficient for us to resolve any crisis: that is an equally invalid line of reasoning. The rejection of both these mutually contradictory orthodoxies, and their replacement by the more discerning, reflexive, and socially-informed understanding that has been pioneered by those responsible for the demolition of the Theory of Himalayan Environmental Degradation, is the key to a properly founded and useful notion of environmental security. CR *DA, 1997, NAT RES RES WORK DEV AUSUBEL JH, 1996, DAEDALUS, V125, P1 BELLAMY C, INDEPENDENT 1029 CHAPMAN G, 1995, WATER QUEST SUSTAINA ECKHOLM E, 1976, LOSING GROUND ENV ST EHRLICH PR, 1971, SCIENCE, V171, P1212 HABERL H, 1997, AMBIO, V26, P143 IVES JD, 1989, HIMALAYAN DILEMMA RE KAPLAN R, 1994, ATLANTIC MONTHLY, V279, P45 LOVELOCK JE, 1979, GAIA NEW LOOK LIFE E MEADOWS DH, 1992, LIMITS GLOBAL COLLAP PRICE MF, 1997, GLOBAL ECOL BIOGEOGR, V6, P77 RENNER M, 1996, FIGHTING SURVIVAL EN RIDLEY M, 1997, ULTIMATE RESOURCES, V2 SIMON J, 1981, ULTIMATE RESOURCE SIMON J, 1997, ULTIMATE RESOURCE, P2 THOMPSON M, 1986, UNCERTAINTY HIMALAYA THOMPSON M, 1997, GEOGR J 2, V163, P141 TIFFIN M, 1994, MORE PEOPLE LESS ERO NR 19 TC 1 J9 MT RES DEV BP 117 EP 122 PY 1998 PD MAY VL 18 IS 2 GA ZT485 UT ISI:000074092600002 ER PT J AU Geerts, S Raes, D Garcia, M Del Castillo, C Buytaert, W TI Agro-climatic suitability mapping for crop production in the Bolivian Altiplano: A case study for quinoa SO AGRICULTURAL AND FOREST METEOROLOGY LA English DT Article C1 Katholieke Univ Leuven, Div Soil & Water Management, B-3001 Louvain, Belgium. Univ Mayor San Andres, Fac Agron, La Paz, Bolivia. RP Geerts, S, Katholieke Univ Leuven, Div Soil & Water Management, Celestijnenlaan 200 E, B-3001 Louvain, Belgium. AB An agro-climatic suitability library for crop production was generated by using climatic data sets from 20 to 33 years for 41 meteorological stations in the Bolivian Altiplano. Four agro-climatic indicators for the region were obtained by validated calculation procedures. The reference evapotranspiration, the length of the rainy season, the severity of intra-seasonal dry spells and the monthly frost risks were determined for each of the stations. To get a geographical coverage, the point data were subsequently entered in a GIS environment and interpolated using ordinary kriging, with or without incorporating anisotropy. The presented case study focuses on quinoa (Chenopodium quinoa Willd.), an important crop in the region that is cultivated during the short and irregular rainfall season and that is well adapted to the frequent occurrence of drought and frost. The GIS library was used to mark zones where deficit irrigation could improve quinoa production. With a data query, zones were delimited where the irrigation can be useful to stretch the length of the growing season beyond the limits of the rainy season and/or to mitigate intra-seasonal dry spells. Determined net irrigation requirements were used to assess the vulnerability of the delineated zones. Two regions with a high vulnerability, a severe drought risk and an acceptable frost risk are the eastern region of the Altiplano and the inter-salt depression region in the south. Together, they account for around one-third of the Altiplano area. In 1 year out of 2, irrigation in these regions can strongly improve crop production. The use of irrigation in other regions of the Altiplano will be less beneficial either because the irrigation requirements are low (region around Lake Titicaca), or because the frost risk is too high (the dry west, the south-west, and the region in between Lake Poopo and the Uyuni salt depression). Apart from the presented application, a general view on the climatic system of the Altiplano could be deduced from the library. The proposed routine in this study yielded a straightforward method to deal with large sets of detailed climatic information and to link them with practical agricultural advice. By redefining query limits and incorporating other data, the GIS library can be used for impact assessments of other agricultural practices and for studying the effects of climate change and of the El Nino Southern Oscillation on quinoa production in the delineated zones. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. CR *CIP, 2005, DIVA GIS SOFTW MAN F *FAO UN, 1997, FAO LAND WAT DIG MED, V1 *INE, 2003, AN EST 2003 *USGS, 2005, GIS DAT BOL ALLEN R, 1998, 5L FAO BARRIENTOS E, 2004, P 8 ESA C EUR AGR GL, P879 BUISHAND TA, 1982, J HYDROL, V58, P11 CARRASCO E, 1997, FROST TOLERANT POTAT, P227 DUPORTAL D, 1993, ETUDES GELEES ATIPLA ENGLISH M, 1990, J IRRIG DRAIN E-ASCE, V116, P399 FOX P, 2000, PHYS CHEM EARTH PT B, V25, P289 FRANCOIS C, 1999, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V95, P113 GARCIA M, 2003, AGR WATER MANAGE, V60, P119 GARCIA M, 2003, THESIS KU LEUVEN BEL GARCIA M, 2004, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V125, P67 GARREAUD R, 2003, PALAEOGEOGR PALAEOCL, V194, P5 GEERTS S, 2004, THESIS KATHOLIEKE U GOMMES RA, 1983, 45 FAO GOOVAERTS P, 2000, J HYDROL, V228, P113 HARGREAVES GH, 1982, J IRRIGATION DRAINAG, V108, P225 HIJMANS RJ, 1999, ESTIMATING FROST RIS, P373 HIJMANS RJ, 2003, AGR SYST, V76, P895 HOOGENBOOM G, 2000, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V103, P137 ISAAKS EH, 1989, INTRO APPL GEOSTATIS JACOBSEN SE, 2001, MEMORIAS PRIMER TALL JACOBSEN SE, 2003, FOOD REV INT, V19, P99 JACOBSEN SE, 2004, EUR J AGRON, V22, P131 MALCZEWSKI J, 2004, PROG PLANN 1, V62, P3 PEREIRA LS, 2002, AGR WATER MANAGE, V57, P175 RAES D, 1996, HYDRAULIC ENG SOFTWA, V6, P525 RAES D, 2004, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V125, P177 RAES D, 2005, BUDGET SOIL WATER SA RAES D, 2006, AGR WATER MANAGE, V81, P335 SIVAKUMAR MVK, 1988, AGR FOR METEOROL, V42, P295 SMITH M, 2000, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V103, P99 STERN RD, 1982, EXP AGR, V18, P223 VACHER JJ, 1998, AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON, V68, P99 ZHANG HP, 1999, AGR WATER MANAGE, V38, P195 NR 38 TC 0 J9 AGR FOREST METEOROL BP 399 EP 412 PY 2006 PD OCT 12 VL 139 IS 3-4 GA 098PW UT ISI:000241536300017 ER PT J AU Vincent, K TI Uncertainty in adaptive capacity and the importance of scale SO GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS LA English DT Article C1 Univ E Anglia, Sch Environm Sci, Tyndall Ctr Climate Change Res, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. RP Vincent, K, Univ E Anglia, Sch Environm Sci, Tyndall Ctr Climate Change Res, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. AB Understanding different adaptive capacities is a prerequisite for targeting interventions to reduce the adverse impacts of climate change. Indicators and indices are common tools in this process, but their construction embodies many uncertainties, not least of which is their scale specificity. This paper describes the development of two empirical adaptive capacity indices for use at different scales of analysis: a national index for cross-country comparison in Africa and a household index for cross-household comparison in a village in Limpopo province, South Africa. Explaining the decisions made at each stage of construction illuminates the degree of uncertainty involved when assessing adaptive capacity, and how this uncertainty is compounded when looking across different scales of analysis. It concludes that the central elements of adaptive capacity, based on institutional collective response and the availability of and access to resources, are common at different scales, although the structure of each index is scale-specific. Hence the findings of these apparently irreconcilable scales of analysis converge to demonstrate points of leverage for policy intervention to raise resilience and the capacity to adapt to the risks posed by climate change. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 ADGER WN, 1999, MITIG ADAPT STRAT GL, V4, P253 ADGER WN, 1999, WORLD DEV, V27, P249 ADGER WN, 2003, ECON GEOGR, V79, P387 ADGER WN, 2003, PROGR DEV STUDIES, V3, P179 ADGER WN, 2004, 7 U E ANGL TYND CTR ADGER WN, 2005, CR GEOSCI, V337, P399 AGNEW J, 1997, GEOGRAPHIES EC BRAY F, 1986, RICE EC TECHNOLOGY D BRENKERT AL, 2005, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V72, P57 BRIGUGLIO L, 1995, WORLD DEV, V23, P1615 BROOKS N, 2003, 26 TYND CTR CLIM CHA BROOKS N, 2005, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V15, P151 BRYCESON DF, 2002, WORLD DEV, V30, P725 BURTON I, 1978, ENV HAZARD, V1, P1 CANNON T, 1994, DISASTERS DEV ENV, P13 CASTELLS M, 1996, RISE NETWORK SOC CASTELLS M, 1998, END MILLENNIUM COLLIER P, 1999, J ECON PERSPECT, V13, P3 CROWARDS T, 1999, IN PRESS EC VULNERAB DIAMOND J, 2004, NATURE, V429, P616 DOVIE DBK, 2003, AGR SYST, V76, P337 DOW KM, 1992, GEOFORUM, V23, P417 DOWNING TE, 2001, UNEP POLICY SERIES DURLAUF S, 2002, ECON J, V112, P459 EASTER C, 1999, ROUND TABLE, V351, P403 ELLIS F, 1998, J DEV STUD, V35, P1 FUSSEL HM, 2006, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V75, P301 HADDAD BM, 2005, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V15, P165 HOUGHTON J, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 JOLLANDS N, 2003, US SOC EC EC C SAR S KALY U, 1999, 275 SOPAC KALY U, 1999, 299 SOPAC KALY U, 2000, 306 SOPAC KATES RW, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P5 KAUFFMAN KD, 2004, AIDS S AFRICA SOCIAL, P17 KELLY PM, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V47, P325 KING BH, 2005, AREA, V37, P64 KRISHNA A, 2001, WORLD DEV, V29, P925 LEICHENKO RM, 2002, MITIGATION ADAPTATIO, V7, P1 LURIE MN, 2004, MIGRATION POLICY SER, V31 MILANOVIC B, 2003, WORLD DEV, V31, P667 MOLLER V, 1996, SO AFRICAN J GERONTO, V5, P9 MOSS RM, 2000, VULNERABILITY CLIMAT NIEMEIJER D, 2002, ENVIRON SCI POLICY, V5, P91 OBRIEN KL, 2004, 200404 CICERO OBRIEN KL, 2004, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V64, P193 OBRIEN KL, 2000, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V10, P221 PALDAM M, 2000, J ECON SURV, V14, P629 PELLING M, 2001, ENV HAZARDS, V3, P49 PELLING M, 2003, VULNERABILITY CITIES PELLING M, 2005, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V15, P308 PRETTY J, 2001, WORLD DEV, V29, P209 PUTNAM RD, 1993, MAKING DEMOCRACY WOR REARDON T, 1988, WORLD DEV, V16, P1065 SACHS JD, 1997, J AFR ECON, V6, P335 SCHIPPER EL, 2006, RECIEL, V15, P82 SMIT B, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, P877 SMITH B, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P223 SWINTON SM, 1988, HUM ECOL, V16, P123 TOMPKINS EL, 2005, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V15, P139 VANDERVLIET V, 2004, AIDS S AFRICA SOCIAL, P48 VINCENT K, 2004, 56 U E ANGL TYND CTR WILBANKS TJ, 1999, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V43, P601 WOOLCOCK M, 2002, WORKSH UND BUILD SOC YOHE GW, 2002, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V12, P25 YOHE GW, 2001, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V49, P247 NR 67 TC 1 J9 GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANGE BP 12 EP 24 PY 2007 PD FEB VL 17 IS 1 GA 149YG UT ISI:000245182200004 ER PT J AU Gritti, ES Smith, B Sykes, MT TI Vulnerability of Mediterranean Basin ecosystems to climate change and invasion by exotic plant species SO JOURNAL OF BIOGEOGRAPHY LA English DT Article C1 Lund Univ, Dept Phys Geog & Ecosyst Anal, Geobiosphere Sci Ctr, S-22362 Lund, Sweden. RP Gritti, ES, Lund Univ, Dept Phys Geog & Ecosyst Anal, Geobiosphere Sci Ctr, Solvegatan 12, S-22362 Lund, Sweden. AB Aim To assess at a broad scale the vulnerability of Mediterranean vegetation to alien plant invasion under different climatic and disturbance scenarios. Location We simulated the vegetation biogeography and dynamics on five of the main islands of the Mediterranean Basin: Mallorca, Corsica, Sardinia, Crete and Lesvos. Methods We used LPJ-GUESS, a generalized ecosystem model based on dynamic processes describing establishment, competition, mortality and ecosystem biogeochemistry. We simulated the vegetation distribution and dynamics using a set of plant functional types (PFTs) based on bioclimatic and physiological parameters, which included tree and shrub PFTs defined especially for the Mediterranean. Additionally, two invasive PFTs, an invasive tree type and an invasive herb type, were defined and used to estimate the vulnerability to invasion of a range of different ecosystems. The model was used to simulate climate changes and associated changes in atmospheric [CO2] to 2050 according to two Special Report on Emissions Scenarios climate scenarios (A1Fi and B1) combined with mean disturbance intervals of 3 and 40 years. Results The simulations and scenarios showed that the effect of climate change alone is likely to be negligible in many of the simulated ecosystems, although not all. The simulated progression of an invasion was highly dependent on the initial ecosystem composition and local environmental conditions, with a particular contrast between drier and wetter parts of the Mediterranean, and between mountain and coastal areas. The rate of ecosystem disturbance was the main factor controlling susceptibility to invasion, strongly influencing vegetation development on the shorter time scale. Main conclusions Further invasion into Mediterranean island ecosystems is likely to be an increasing problem: our simulations predict that, in the longer term, almost all the ecosystems will be dominated by exotic plants irrespective of disturbance rates. CR *CIESIN IFPRI WRI, 2000, GRIDD POP WORLD VERS *COUNC EUR, 1987, MAP NAT VEG MEMB COU *IPCC, 2000, EM SCEN 2000 SPEC RE *MED FOR NGO, 1999, MAL DECL BIOD SUST D *NAT RES COUNC, 2002, PRED INV NON SPEC US ADAMIK KJ, 1955, TAPPI, V38, A150 ADAMIK KJ, 1957, TAPPI, V40, P522 ALVAREZ ME, 2002, ECOL APPL, V12, P1434 APOSTOLOPOULOS Y, 2001, MEDITERRANEAN TOURIS BADECK FW, 2001, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V51, P307 BELCHER JW, 1989, J RANGE MANAGE, V42, P172 BOOM A, 2002, PALAEOGEOGR PALAEOCL, V177, P151 CARLQUIST S, 1974, ISLAND BIOL CARLTON JT, 1979, THESIS U CALIFORNIA CODY ML, 1978, ANNU REV ECOL SYST, V9, P265 COSTELLO DA, 2000, BIOL CONSERV, V96, P113 COX CB, 1993, BIOGEOGRAPHY ECOLOGI CROOKS JA, 2002, OIKOS, V97, P153 DAMESIN C, 1998, ACTA OECOL, V19, P195 DRAKE BG, 1997, ANNU REV PLANT PHYS, V48, P609 DUKES JS, 1999, TRENDS ECOL EVOL, V14, P135 FOSBERG FR, 1948, INSECTS HAWAII, V1, P107 GERTEN D, 2004, J HYDROL, V286, P249 GIVNISH TJ, 2002, SILVA FENN, V36, P703 GORDON C, 2000, CLIM DYNAM, V16, P147 GORDON DR, 1998, ECOL APPL, V8, P975 GREUTER W, 1991, BOT CHRON, V10, P63 GRIME JP, 1965, NATURE, V208, P161 HEIMANN M, 1998, GLOBAL BIOGEOCHEM CY, V12, P1 HEYWOOD VH, 1995, ECOLOGIA MEDITERRANE, V20, P11 HICKLER T, 2004, ECOLOGY, V2, P519 HILL J, 1998, J ARID ENVIRON, V39, P165 HODKINSON DJ, 1997, J APPL ECOL, V34, P1484 HOWARD TG, 2004, BIOL INVASIONS, V6, P393 HU SY, 1979, ARNOLDIA, V39, P29 JALAS J, 1972, ATLAS FLORAE EUCOPAE JALAS J, 1973, ATLAS FLORAE EUCOPAE JALAS J, 1976, ATLAS FLORAE EUCOPAE JALAS J, 1979, ATLAS FLORAE EUCOPAE JALAS J, 1980, ATLAS FLORAE EUCOPAE JALAS J, 1983, ATLAS FLORAE EUCOPAE JALAS J, 1986, ATLAS FLORAE EUCOPAE JALAS J, 1989, ATLAS FLORAE EUCOPAE JALAS J, 1991, ATLAS FLORAE EUCOPAE JALAS J, 1994, ATLAS FLORAE EUCOPAE JALAS J, 1996, ATLAS FLORAE EUCOPAE JALAS J, 1999, ATLAS FLORAE EUCOPAE JORDAN GJ, 1997, BOT J LINN SOC, V123, P45 KENNEDY TA, 2002, NATURE, V417, P636 LAKE JC, 2004, BIOL CONSERV, V117, P215 LITTLE S, 1974, AGR HDB, V450, P201 LOCKHART DG, 1996, TOURISM MANAGE, V17, P382 LUCHT W, 2002, SCIENCE, V296, P1687 MACDONALD IAW, 1988, BIOL CONSERV, V44, P37 MACDONALD IAW, 1989, SCOPE SERIES, V37, P215 MACK RN, 2000, ECOL APPL, V10, P689 MEDAIL F, 1997, ANN MO BOT GARD, V84, P112 MERGEN F, 1959, BOT GAZ, V121, P32 MITCHELL TD, 2004, 55 TYND CTR MOONEY HA, 1981, ECOSYSTEMS WORLD, V11, P249 MORALES P, 2005, IN PRESS GLOBAL CHAN NAEEM S, 2000, OIKOS, V91, P97 NEW M, 1999, J CLIMATE, V12, P829 NEW M, 2000, J CLIMATE, V13, P2217 OSBORNE CP, 2000, GLOB CHANGE BIOL, V6, P445 PENG CH, 1998, QUATERNARY SCI REV, V17, P719 PENUELAS J, 2003, GLOBAL CHANGE BIOL, V9, P131 PIMENTEL D, 2000, BIOSCIENCE, V50, P53 POPE VD, 2000, CLIM DYNAM, V16, P123 PYSEK P, 1998, J BIOGEOGR, V25, P155 QUEZEL P, 1985, GEOBOTANY, V7, P9 RICHARDSON DM, 2000, DIVERS DISTRIB, V6, P93 ROMAO C, 1996, 15 EUR COMM EUR DG X SABATE S, 2002, FOREST ECOL MANAG, V162, P23 SITCH S, 2003, GLOBAL CHANGE BIOL, V9, P161 SMITH B, 2001, GLOBAL ECOL BIOGEOGR, V10, P621 STJOHN H, 1973, LIST SUMMARY FLOWERI, V1 SUEHS CM, 2003, PLANT INVASIONS ECOL, P247 SUEHS CM, 2004, HEREDITY, V92, P31 THONICKE K, 2001, GLOBAL ECOL BIOGEOGR, V10, P661 TILMAN D, 1997, ECOLOGY, V78, P81 TRABAUD L, 1987, PLANT RESPONSE STRES, P607 VENEVSKY S, 2002, GLOBAL CHANGE BIOL, V8, P984 VERMEIJ GJ, 1996, BIOL CONSERV, V78, P3 VITOUSEK PM, 1997, NEW ZEAL J ECOL, V21, P1 WEBER C, 2003, REMOTE SENS ENVIRON, V86, P341 WILLIAMSON M, 1996, ECOLOGY, V77, P1661 NR 87 TC 1 J9 J BIOGEOGR BP 145 EP 157 PY 2006 PD JAN VL 33 IS 1 GA 999TG UT ISI:000234412800014 ER PT J AU Baranzini, A Chesney, M Morisset, J TI The impact of possible climate catastrophes on global warming policy SO ENERGY POLICY LA English DT Article C1 Univ Geneva, Fac Econ & Social Sci, CH-1211 Geneva 4, Switzerland. Swiss Fed Inst Technol, Res Lab Econ & Management Environm, CH-1015 Lausanne, Switzerland. Grp HEC, Dept Finance, F-78350 Jouy En Josas, France. Int Finance Corp, Foreign Investment Advisory Serv, Washington, DC 20433 USA. World Bank, Washington, DC 20433 USA. RP Baranzini, A, Univ Geneva, Fac Econ & Social Sci, 40 Bld Pont Arve, CH-1211 Geneva 4, Switzerland. AB Recent studies on global warming have introduced the inherent uncertainties associated with the costs and benefits of climate policies and have often shown that abatement policies are likely to be less aggressive or postponed in comparison to those resulting from traditional cost-benefit analyses (CBA). Yet, those studies have failed to include the possibility of sudden climate catastrophes. The aim of this paper is to account simultaneously for possible continuous and discrete damages resulting from global warming, and to analyse their implications on the optimal path of abatement policies. Our approach is related to the new literature on investment under uncertainty, and relies on some recent developments of the real option in which we incorporated negative jumps (climate catastrophes) in the stochastic process corresponding to the net benefits associated with the abatement policies. The impacts of continuous and discrete climatic risks can therefore be considered separately. Our numerical applications lead to two main conclusions: (i) gradual, continuous uncertainty in the global warming process is likely to delay the adoption of abatement policies as found in previous studies, with respect to the standard CBA; however (ii) the possibility of climate catastrophes accelerates the implementation of these policies as their net discounted benefits increase significantly. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. CR 1998, SUISSE REASSURANCES *IPCC, 1990, SCI ASSESSMENT CLIMA *IPCC, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995 *IPCC, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 ARROW KJ, 1990, IPCC REPORT WORKING, P52 BARANZINI A, 1995, 1417 WORLD BANK POL BARONEADESI G, 1987, J FINANC, V42, P301 BATES DS, 1991, J FINANC, V46, P1009 BIRGE JR, 1996, ENERGY J, V17, P79 BLACK F, 1973, J POLITICAL EC, V81, P637 CARRARO C, 1993, J PUBLIC ECON, V52, P309 CHESNEY M, 2002, IN PRESS J EC DYNAMI CHESNEY M, 2002, VALUATION AM OPTION CLINE WR, 1992, EC GLOBAL WARMING DIXIT A, 1992, J ECON PERSPECT, V6, P107 FALK I, 1993, J ENVIRON ECON MANAG, V25, P76 FISCHER BS, 1996, IPCC 2 ASSESSMENT RE, P397 GJERDE J, 1999, RESOUR ENERGY ECON, V21, P289 GOLDEMBERG J, 1996, IPCC 2 ASSESSMENT RE, P17 HANEMANN WM, 1989, J ENVIRON ECON MANAG, V16, P23 KOLSTAD CD, 1994, ENERG POLICY, V22, P771 MADDISON D, 1995, ENERG POLICY, V23, P337 MCDONALD R, 1986, Q J ECON, V101, P707 MUNASINGHE M, 1996, IPCC 2 ASSESSMENT RE, P149 NORDHAUS WD, 1991, AM ECON REV, V81, P146 NORDHAUS WD, 1991, ECON J, V101, P920 NORDHAUS WD, 1993, J ECON PERSPECT, V7, P11 NORDHAUS WD, 1994, MANAGING GLOBAL COMM PEARCE DW, 1996, IPCC 2 ASSESSMENT RE, P180 PECK SC, 1993, RESOUR ENERGY ECON, V15, P71 PINDYCK RS, 1991, J ECON LIT, V29, P1110 PINDYCK RS, 1999, IRREVERSIBILITY TIMI REYNOLDS P, 1999, TIME 0222, P54 SCHELLING TC, 1995, ENERG POLICY, V23, P395 SCHIMMELPFENNIG D, 1995, ENERG ECON, V17, P311 TOL RSJ, 1999, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V41, P351 TSUR Y, 1996, J ECON DYN CONTROL, V20, P1289 YOHE GW, 1996, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V2, P87 ZHANG XL, 1995, MATH COMPUT SIMULAT, V38, P151 NR 39 TC 2 J9 ENERG POLICY BP 691 EP 701 PY 2003 PD JUN VL 31 IS 8 GA 660CC UT ISI:000181815400001 ER PT J AU Sapountzaki, K TI Coping with seismic vulnerability: small manufacturing firms in western Athens SO DISASTERS LA English DT Article C1 Harokopion Univ Athens, Dept Geog, Athens, Greece. RP Sapountzaki, K, Harokopion Univ Athens, Dept Geog, Athens, Greece. AB This paper attempts to contribute to international discourse on the responsibility of macro structures ( economic and political) and private agencies for the production and distribution of vulnerability. It does so by focusing on an individual economic entity, small manufacturing firms (SMFs), in a specific location, western Athens, Greece. By evaluating the losses that SMFs sustained in the earthquake of 7 September 1999, the paper points to variations in vulnerability levels among such firms and highlights the `sources' of vulnerability they confront. Furthermore, the SMF recovery cycle is systematically monitored in parallel with relevant public policies and state reactions to private recovery methods. The analysis illustrates processes that externalise recovery costs, alter the relationship between physical and socio-economic vulnerability and shift the vulnerability load from macro structures to individual agencies or vice versa. It is based on two methodological approaches: the division of vulnerability into three constituent components (exposure, resistance and resilience); and the conceptual split between producers and carriers of vulnerability. CR *HUA, 1990, UNPUB SOC EC IMP SEI *NTUA, 1996, EM OP PLAN SEIM DIS ALESCH DJ, 1996, PAN PAC HAZ 96 C VAN ANDERSON MB, 1989, RISING ASHES DEV STR BLAIKIE PM, 1994, RISK NATURAL HAZARDS, V1, P1 CHRISTOPLOS I, 2003, NATURAL DISASTERS DE, P95 DAHLHAMER JM, 1996, 243 U DEL DIS RES CT DSOUZA MJ, 1995, 224 U DEL DIS RES CT FROST C, 1994, DISASTER PREVENTION, V3, P7 GORDON PH, 1995, BUSINESS INTERRUPTIO HEWITT K, 1983, INTERPRETATIONS CALA, P3 MITCHELL JK, 1999, CRUCIBLES HAZARD MEG NIGG JM, 1995, P SIN US S POST EART, P46 PELLING M, 2003, VULNERABILITY CITIES SAPOUNTZAKI K, 2003, 1 DAY SEM NAT DIS DI SAPOUNTZAKI K, 2003, P 2003 INT SUST DEV, P388 SECRETT CH, 1996, PRESCRIPTIONS CHANGE, P12 SJOBERG L, 1987, STUDIES RISK GENERAT STALLINGS RA, 1996, NORTHRIDGE EARTHQUAK TIERNEY KJ, 1995, P 4 US C LIF EARTHQ TIERNEY KKJ, 1995, SPECIAL PUBLICATION, V116, P255 TIMMERMAN P, 1981, ENV MONOGRAPH I ENV, V1, P1 WEBB GR, 2000, NATURAL HAZARDS REV, V1, P83 NR 23 TC 0 J9 DISASTERS BP 195 EP 212 PY 2005 PD JUN VL 29 IS 2 GA 927KA UT ISI:000229191600005 ER PT J AU Robinson, JB Bradley, M Busby, P Connor, D Murray, A Sampson, B Soper, W TI Climate change and sustainable development: Realizing the opportunity SO AMBIO LA English DT Article C1 Univ British Columbia, Inst Resources Environm & Sustainabil, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z4, Canada. Canadian Forest Prod Canfor, Vancouver, BC V6C 2C1, Canada. Busby & Associates, Vancouver, BC V6B 2Y5, Canada. QuestAir Technol Inc, Burnaby, BC V5J 4R8, Canada. Vancouver Int Airport Author, Commun & Environm Affairs, Richmond, BC V7B 1Y7, Canada. BC Hydro & Power Author, Sustainabil, Vancouver, BC V6B 5R3, Canada. Int Ctr Sustainable Cities, Vancouver, BC V6J 1P2, Canada. RP Robinson, J, Univ British Columbia, Inst Resources Environm & Sustainabil, 2202 Main Mall, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z4, Canada. AB Manifold linkages exist between climate change and sustainable development. Although these are starting to receive attention in the climate exchange literature, the focus has typically been on examining sustainable development through a climate change lens, rather than vice versa. And there has been little systematic examination of how these linkages may be fostered in practice. This paper examines climate change through a sustainable development lens. To illustrate how this might change the approach to climate change issues, it reports on the findings of a panel of business, local government, and academic representatives in British Columbia, Canada, who were appointed to advise the provincial government on climate change policy. The panel found that sustainable development may offer a significantly more fruitful way to pursue climate policy goals than climate policy itself. The paper discusses subsequent climate change developments in the province and makes suggestions as how best to pursue such a sustainability approach in British Columbia and other jurisdictions. 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RSPB, Sandy SG19 5DL, Beds, England. Univ Sheffield, Dept Anim & Plant Sci, Sheffield S10 2TN, S Yorkshire, England. Butterfly Conservat, Wareham BH20 5QP, Dorset, England. British Waterways, Leeds LS9 8PB, W Yorkshire, England. Macaulay Inst, Aberdeen AB15 8QH, Scotland. Brtish Trust Ornithol, Nunnery, Thetford IP24 2PU, Norfolk, England. Rural Dev Serv, Dept Environm & Rural Affairs, Wolverhampton WV6 8TQ, England. Ctr Environm Fisheries & Aquaculture Sci, Lowestoft Lab, Lowestoft NR33 0HT, Suffolk, England. British Ecol Soc, London SW15 2NU, England. Assoc Natl Pk Author, Cardiff CF10 5LE, Wales. Univ Sheffield, Dept Anim & Plant Sci, Sheffield S10 2TN, S Yorkshire, England. Univ London Imperial Coll Sci & Technol, NERC Ctr Populat Biol, Ascot SL5 7PY, Berks, England. Sci Govt Directorate, Off Sci & Technol, Dept Trade & Ind, London SW1, England. Natl Trust, Swindon SN2 2NA, Wilts, England. Country Land & Business Assoc, London SW1X 8PQ, England. English Nat, Peterborough P61 1UA, England. Natl Farmers Union, Stoneleigh CV8 2TZ, Warwick, England. Defra, Nat Resource & Rural Affairs Sci Div, Bristol BS1 6EB, Avon, England. Univ Leeds, Sch Biol, Earth & Biosphere Inst, Leeds LS2 9JT, W Yorkshire, England. Univ Oxford, Wildlife Conservat Res Unit, Tubney OX13 5QL, Oxon, England. Off Deputy Prime Minister, London SW1E 5DU, England. Environm Agcy, Warrington WA4 1HG, Cheshire, England. Countryside Agcy, Cheltenham GL50 3RA, Glos, England. Campaign Protect Rural England, London SE1 0SW, England. Lancaster Environm Ctr, Ctr Ecol & Hydrol, Lancaster LA1 4AP, England. Univ Birmingham, Sch Biosci, Ctr Evidence Based Conservat, Birmingham B15 2TT, W Midlands, England. Buglife Invertebrate Conservat Trust, Peterborough PE1 2UF, England. Middlemarch Environm Ltd, Coventry CV5 9AZ, W Midlands, England. Woodland Trust, Grantham NG31 6LL, Lincs, England. Marine Conservat Soc, Ross On Wye HR9 5NB, England. Forest Enterprise, Lyndhurst SO43 7NH, Hants, England. Scottish Environm Protect Agcy, Stirling FK9 4TR, Scotland. Univ York, Dept Biol, Area 18, York YO10 5YW, N Yorkshire, England. Inst Ecol & Environm Management, Winchester SO23 9EH, Hants, England. Off Sci & Technol, Exploitat Grp, London SW1H 0ET, England. Univ Manchester, Sch Life Sci, Manchester M13 9PT, Lancs, England. Univ E Anglia, Sch Biol Sci, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. Univ E Anglia, Sch Environm Sci, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. Univ E Anglia, Tyndall Ctr Climate Change Res, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. RP Sutherland, WJ, Univ E Anglia, Sch Biol Sci, Ctr Ecol Evolut & Conservat, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. AB 1. Evidence-based policy requires researchers to provide the answers to ecological questions that are of interest to policy makers. To find out what those questions are in the UK, representatives from 28 organizations involved in policy, together with scientists from 10 academic institutions, were asked to generate a list of questions from their organizations. 2. During a 2-day workshop the initial list of 1003 questions generated from consulting at least 654 policy makers and academics was used as a basis for generating a short list of 100 questions of significant policy relevance. Short-listing was decided on the basis of the preferences of the representatives from the policy-led organizations. 3. The areas covered included most major issues of environmental concern in the UK, including agriculture, marine fisheries, climate change, ecosystem function and land management. 4. The most striking outcome was the preference for general questions rather than narrow ones. The reason is that policy is driven by broad issues rather than specific ones. In contrast, scientists are frequently best equipped to answer specific questions. This means that it may be necessary to extract the underpinning specific question before researchers can proceed. 5. Synthesis and applications. Greater communication between policy makers and scientists is required in order to ensure that applied ecologists are dealing with issues in a way that can feed into policy. It is particularly important that applied ecologists emphasize the generic value of their work wherever possible. CR 1992, UN C ENV DEV RIO DE 1994, BIODIVERSITY UK ACTI 2002, 5 INT C PROT N SEA B 2003, INVESTOR PERSPECTIVE *DEP ENV FOOD RUR, 2004, MAK SPAC WAT *DEP ENV FOOD RUR, 2004, SEC BEN JOINT UK RES *DEP ENV RUR AFF, 2002, SAF OUR SEAS STRAT C *DEP ENV RUR AFF, 2003, DEL EV DEFR SCI INN *DTI, 2003, OUR EN FUT CREAT LOW *EUR COMM, 2004, GOOD AGR ENV COND FR *FOR COMM, 1998, UK FOR STAND GOV APP *IPCC, 2001, CLIM CHANG 2001 SCI *MILL EC ASS, 2005, EC HUM WELL BEING FR *OFF DEP PRIM MIN, 2000, OUR TOWNS CIT *UK BIOD GROUP, 1999, UK BIOD GROUP TRANCH *WSSD, 2002, PLAN IMPL WORLD SUMM ALDHOUS P, 2005, NATURE, V435, P399 BIRNIE RV, 2000, ANN BOT-LONDON B, V85, P53 BULLOCK H, 2001, BETTER POLICY MAKING CONRAD KF, 2004, J INSECT CONSERV, V8, P119 COTE IM, 2005, PHILOS T ROY SOC B, V360, P385 COULSON SJ, 2001, J APPL ECOL, V38, P204 DULVY NK, 2003, FISH FISH, V4, P25 EVANS E, 2004, FORESIGHT FUTURE FLO, V1 EVANS E, 2004, FORESIGHT FUTURE FLO, V2 FULLER RJ, 2001, FORESTRY, V74, P193 GARTHE S, 2004, J APPL ECOL, V41, P724 GASTON KJ, 2005, BIODIVERS CONSERV, V14, P395 GRAY AJ, 2004, J APPL ECOL, V41, P1 HILBERT D, 1902, B AM MATH SOC, V8, P437 HOFFMAN P, 1998, MAN WHO LOVED ONLY N HOPE D, 2003, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V100, P8788 HULME M, 2002, CLIMATE CHANGE SCENA HULME PE, 2005, J APPL ECOL, V42, P784 JENNINGS S, 2004, J ANIM ECOL, V73, P632 KING D, 2005, J APPL ECOL, V42, P779 KLEIJN D, 2003, J APPL ECOL, V40, P947 MACDONALD DW, 1996, EXPLOITATION MAMMAL, P160 MANCHESTER SJ, 2000, J APPL ECOL, V37, P845 MARTIN CA, 2004, LANDSCAPE URBAN PLAN, V69, P355 MAY R, 2001, NATURE, V411, P891 MILLS D, 2003, SALMON EDGE MOONEY HA, 2000, INVASIVE SPECIES CHA NEWTON I, 1998, CONSERVATION SCI ACT, P66 NORTON BG, 2005, SUSTAINABILITY PHILO OLDFIELD TEE, 2003, NATURE, V423, P531 PEACH WJ, 2001, BIOL CONSERV, V101, P361 PERROW MR, 2002, HDB ECOLOGICAL RESTO, V1 PETERS RH, 1991, CRITIQUE ECOLOGY PULLIAM HR, 1988, AM NAT, V132, P652 PULLIN AS, 2001, CONSERV BIOL, V15, P50 ROBINSON JG, IN PRESS CONSERVATIO ROBINSON RA, 2002, J APPL ECOL, V39, P157 STEFFEN W, 2004, GLOBAL CHANGE EARTH SUTHERLAND WJ, 2004, IBIS S1, V146, P120 SUTHERLAND WJ, 2004, TRENDS ECOL EVOL, V19, P305 SUTHERLAND WJ, 2006, IN PRESS J APPL ECOL, V43 WARREN MS, 1993, BIOL CONSERV, V64, P25 WOLFF WJ, 2000, BIOL CONSERV, V95, P209 NR 59 TC 4 J9 J APPL ECOL BP 617 EP 627 PY 2006 PD AUG VL 43 IS 4 GA 055YL UT ISI:000238487200002 ER PT J AU Jha, M Pan, ZT Takle, ES Gu, R TI Impacts of climate change on streamflow in the Upper Mississippi River Basin: A regional climate model perspective SO JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES LA English DT Article C1 Iowa State Univ Sci & Technol, Dept Civil Construct & Environm Engn, Ames, IA 50011 USA. St Louis Univ, Dept Earth & Atmospher Sci, St Louis, MO 63103 USA. Iowa State Univ Sci & Technol, Dept Agron, Ames, IA 50011 USA. RP Jha, M, Iowa State Univ Sci & Technol, Dept Civil Construct & Environm Engn, Ames, IA 50011 USA. AB Impact of climate change on streamflow in the Upper Mississippi River Basin is evaluated by use of a regional climate model (RCM) coupled with a hydrologic model, Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). The RCM we used resolves, at least partially, some fine-scale dynamical processes that are important contributors to precipitation in this region and that are not well simulated by global models. The SWAT model was calibrated and validated against measured streamflow data using observed weather data and inputs from the U. S. Environmental Protection Agency Better Assessment Science Integrating Point and Nonpoint Sources (BASINS) geographic information systems/database system. Combined performance of SWAT and RCM was examined using observed weather data as lateral boundary conditions in the RCM. The SWAT and RCM performed well, especially on an annual basis. Potential impacts of climate change on water yield and other hydrologic budget components were then quantified by driving SWAT with current and future scenario climates. Twenty-one percent increase in future precipitation simulated by the RCM produced 18% increase in snowfall, 51% increase in surface runoff, and 43% increase in groundwater recharge, resulting in 50% net increase in total water yield in the Upper Mississippi River Basin on an annual basis. Uncertainty analysis showed that the simulated change in streamflow substantially exceeded model biases of the combined modeling system (with largest bias of 18%). While this does not necessarily give us high confidence in the actual climate change that will occur, it does demonstrate that the climate change "signal" stands out from the climate modeling ( global plus regional) and impact assessment modeling (SWAT) "noise." CR *USDA, 1994, MISC PUBL USDA, V1492 *USEPA, 2001, BASINS 3 0 BETT ASS ANDERSON CJ, 2003, J HYDROMETEOROL, V4, P584 ARNELL NW, 2003, J GEOPHYS RES-ATMOS, V108 ARNOLD JG, 1993, J HYDROL, V142, P47 ARNOLD JG, 1996, J HYDROL, V176, P57 ARNOLD JG, 1998, J AM WATER RESOUR AS, V34, P73 ARNOLD JG, 1999, J AM WATER RESOUR AS, V35, P1037 CHANGNON SA, 1996, GREAT FLOOD 1993 CAU GHAN SJ, 1995, MON WEATHER REV, V124, P1388 GIORGI F, 1993, MON WEATHER REV, V121, P2794 GIORGI F, 1994, J CLIMATE, V7, P375 GIORGI F, 1994, Q J ROY METEOR SOC, V120, P161 GLANTZ MH, 1988, SOC RESPONSES REGION HAY LE, 2002, J HYDROMETEOROL, V3, P571 HIGGINS RW, 1997, J CLIMATE, V10, P481 HOUGHTON JT, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 JONES TE, 1997, CLIM DYNAM, V13, P103 KALNAY E, 1996, B AM METEOROL SOC, V77, P437 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 MEARNS LO, 1997, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V35, P367 NASH JE, 1970, J HYDROL, V10, P282 PAN Z, 2001, J GEOPHSY RES, V106, P17737 ROSENTHAL WD, 1995, T ASAE, V38, P783 SALEH A, 2000, T ASAE, V43, P1077 SANTHI C, 2001, J AM WATER RESOUR AS, V37, P1169 SRINIVASAN R, 1998, J AM WATER RESOUR AS, V34, P91 STONE MC, 2001, J AM WATER RESOUR AS, V37, P1119 STONE MC, 2003, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V30 TAKLE ES, 1999, J GEOPHYS RES-ATMOS, V104, P19443 WALLACE JM, 1977, ATMOSPHERIC SCI INTR NR 31 TC 0 J9 J GEOPHYS RES-ATMOS PY 2004 PD MAY 15 VL 109 IS D9 GA 821PN UT ISI:000221474400001 ER PT J AU Cowling, RM Pressey, RL Rouget, M Lombard, AT TI A conservation plan for a global biodiversity hotspot - the Cape Floristic Region, South Africa SO BIOLOGICAL CONSERVATION LA English DT Review C1 Univ Port Elizabeth, Terr Ecol Res Unit, ZA-6000 Port Elizabeth, South Africa. Univ Port Elizabeth, So African Hotspots Program Conservat Int, Dept Bot, ZA-6000 Port Elizabeth, South Africa. New S Wales Natl Parks & Wildlife Serv, Armidale, NSW 2350, Australia. Univ Cape Town, Dept Bot, Inst Plant Conservat, ZA-7701 Rondebosch, South Africa. RP Cowling, RM, Univ Port Elizabeth, Terr Ecol Res Unit, POB 1600, ZA-6000 Port Elizabeth, South Africa. AB We produced a conservation plan that achieved conservation targets for biodiversity pattern and process in the species- and endemic-rich Cape Floristic Region of South Africa. Features given quantitative conservation targets were land classes, localities of Proteaceae and selected vertebrate (freshwater fish, amphibians and reptiles) species, population sizes for medium- and large-sized mammals, and six types of spatial surrogates for ecological and evolutionary processes. The plan was developed in several stages using C-Plan, a decision support system linked to a geographic information system. Accepting the existing reserve system as part of the plan, we first selected spatially fixed surrogates for biodiversity processes; then we included those planning units that were essential for achieving targets for land classes, Proteaceae and vertebrate species; next we included areas required to accommodate population and design targets for large and medium-sized mammals; we then selected planning units required to conserve entire upland-lowland and macroclimatic gradients; and finally we resolved the options for achieving remaining targets while also consolidating the design of conservation areas. The result was a system of conservation areas, requiring, in addition to the existing reserve system, 52% of the remaining extant habitat in the planning domain, as well as restorable habitat, that will promote the persistence and continued diversification of much of the region's biota in the face of ongoing habitat loss and climate change. After describing the planning process, we discuss implementation priorities in relation to conservation value and vulnerability to habitat loss, as well as socio-economic, political and institutional. constraints and opportunities. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. 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VANEWRIGHT RI, 1996, BIODIVERSITY BIOL NU, P309 VANWILGEN BW, 1996, BIOSCIENCE, V46, P184 WILLIAMS PH, 2000, P ROY SOC LOND B BIO, V267, P1959 WOODROFFE R, 1997, AFRICAN WILD DOG STA, P118 WRIGHT MG, 1999, BIODIVERS CONSERV, V8, P1089 YOUNGE A, 2000, CAPE ACTION PLAN ENV YOUNGE A, 2003, BIOL CONSERV, V112, P15 NR 153 TC 17 J9 BIOL CONSERV BP 191 EP 216 PY 2003 PD JUL-AUG VL 112 IS 1-2 GA 679HC UT ISI:000182913800011 ER PT J AU Endfield, GH Tejedo, IF TI Decades of drought, years of hunger: Archival investigations of multiple year droughts in late colonial Chihuahua SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 Univ Nottingham, Sch Geog, Nottingham NG7 2RD, England. RP Endfield, GH, Univ Nottingham, Sch Geog, Univ Pk, Nottingham NG7 2RD, England. AB Unusually severe or prolonged drought ranks among the most devastating and calamitous of all extreme climate events, contributing to wildfires, crop failure, livestock death, food shortages and famine. The response of human activities and the natural environment to such historical weather perturbations provides a guide to where the most critical sensitivities to future climate changes may lie (McCarthy et al., 2001, Climatic change 2001: Impact adaptation, and vulnerability', from 3rd Assesment Report of IPCC). The reconstruction of regional climatic histories and investigations of the impacts of - and social response to - extreme droughts in history are thus of crucial significance if we are to understand and anticipate the potential repercussions of future events (Wigley, 1985, Nature 316, 106-107; Grove and Conterio, 1995, Clim. Change 30, 223). Chihuahua, in the arid Northwest of Mexico, is one of the most seriously and frequently drought affected regions of the country (Garcia, 2000, available at www.sequia.edu.mx/proyectos/vulnera.html). Prolonged drought in the 1930s, 1950s and 1990s contributed to water scarcity, harvest failure, illness, livestock disease, abandonment and water conflict and served to highlight the particular vulnerability of agrarian society in this region to climatic variability (Sandoval, 2003, Ingeneria Hidraulica en Mexico 18(2), 133-155). Recent investigations using tree ring analysis have identified several phases of such prolonged drought over the last seven centuries. In this paper we use archival documents to investigate the impacts of such periods in late colonial Chihuahua and to explore how society in the region responded to and coped with them. CR *ISDR, 2002, DROUGHT LIV RISK INT *NOAA, INT TREE RING DAT BA ABOITES L, 1994, BREVE HIST CHIHUAHUA ACUNASOTO R, 2000, AM J TROP MED HYG, V62, P733 ACUNASOTO R, 2002, EMERG INFECT DIS, V8, P360 ALLAN RJ, 1996, NINO SO OSCILLATION ALVAREZ S, 1990, 2 C HIST REG COMP U, P141 BAETHGEN WE, 1997, CLIMATE RES, V9, P1 BALLARD C, 1986, J INTERDISCIPL HIST, V2, P359 BANCROFT HH, 1884, WORKS H HOWE BANCROF, V15 BARRIENDOS M, 1997, HOLOCENE, V7, P105 BERZ G, 1997, P WORKSH IND IND CLI BURNS BT, 1983, THESIS U ARIZONA TUS BUTZER EK, 2003, ANN C ASS AM GEOGR N BUTZER KW, 1997, QUATERN INT, V43, P161 CAMUFFO D, 1992, CLIMATE AD 1500, P143 CAVAZOS T, 1990, INT J CLIMATOL, V10, P377 CHEVALIER F, 1952, FORMACION GRANDES DO CLEAVELAND MK, 2003, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V59, P369 CONDE C, 1997, CLIMATE RES, V9, P17 COOPER D, 1965, EPIDEMIC DIS MEXICO COPE RD, 1994, LIMITS RACIAL DOMINA CRAMAUSSEL C, 1990, 2 C HIST REG COMP U, P115 CRAMAUSSEL C, 1990, PROVINCIA SANTA BARB CURTIN CG, 2002, ENVIRON SCI POLICY, V5, P55 DEARREGUI DL, 1946, DESCRIPCION NUEVA GA DETTINGER MD, 1998, J CLIMATE, V11, P3095 DEVACA NC, 1958, VIAJES VIAJEROS VIAJ, P17 DIAZ SC, 2002, CLIMATE RES, V22, P237 EASTERLIING DR, 2001, B AM METEOROLOGICAL, V81, P417 ENDFIELD GH, 1997, ENVIRON HIST, V3, P255 ENDFIELD GH, 2002, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V92, P727 ENDFIELD GH, 2004, J HIST GEOGR, V30, P249 ESCOBAR DAM, 1940, DESCRIPICION GEOGRAF FLORESCANO E, 1976, ORIGEN DESAROLLO PRO FLORESCANO E, 1980, NEXOS, V32, P9 FLORESCANO E, 1981, ARCH GEN NACION FLORESCANO E, 1995, BREVE HIST SEQUIA ME GARCIA SJ, 2000, ANAL VULNERABILIDAD GARCIAACOSTA V, 1993, RED, V1, P2 GRIFFEN WB, 1979, INDIAN ASSIMILATION GROVE JM, 1983, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V5, P265 GROVE JM, 1995, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V30, P223 HIGGINS RW, 1999, J CLIMATE, V12, P653 HODELL DA, 1995, NATURE, V375, P391 HOUGHTON JT, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 JAUREGUI E, 1976, GEOFISICA INT, V16, P45 JAUREGUI E, 1979, B I GEOGRAFIA UNAM, V9, P39 KARL TR, 1999, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V42, P309 KELLEY JC, 1992, HSIT GEN CHIHUAHUA, V1 KIM TW, 2002, WATER INT, V27, P420 KUNDZEWICZ ZW, 2000, WATER INT, V25, P66 KUTZBACH JE, 1985, NATURE, V317, P130 LADURIE L, 1983, HIST CLIMAT DEPUIS M LAFERRIERE JE, 1992, ECOL FOOD NUTR, V28, P1 LAFORA N, 1939, RELACION VIJAE HIZO LANDSBERG H, 1980, J INTERDISCIPLINARY, V10, P631 LIVERMAN DM, 1993, REGIONS GLOBAL WARMI LIVERMAN DM, 1990, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V80, P49 LIVERMAN DM, 1999, NAT RESOUR J, V39, P99 LOPES MAD, 2001, HIST MEXICANA, V50, P513 MAGANA VO, 1999, IMPACTOS NINO MEXICO MALVIDO E, 1973, HIST MEXICANA, V89, P96 MARR JS, 2000, MED HIST, V44, P341 MARTIN CE, 1996, GOVERNANCE SOC COLON MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 METCALFE SE, 1987, GEOGR J, V153, P211 METCALFE SE, 1997, J PALEOLIMNOL, V17, P155 MEYER WB, 1998, HUMAN CHOICE CLIMATE, P218 MIRANDA J, 1871, COLLECCION DOCUMENTO, V16 NAYLOR TH, 1986, PRESIDIO MILITIA NO NEUMANN SIJ, 1969, REVOLTES INDIENS TAR OHARA SL, 1993, GEOGR J, V159, P51 OHARA SL, 1995, HOLOCENE, V5, P485 OUWENEEL A, 1996, SHADOWS ANAHUAC ECOL QUINN WH, 1987, J GEOPHYS RES-OCEANS, V92, P14449 RILEY JD, 2002, AMERICAS, V58, P355 RIVERA SL, 1999, DEFEND OUR WATER BLO ROMERAL PT, 1937, BIBLIO MEXICANA OBRA, V7 SANDOVAL CAE, 2003, ING HIDRAUL MEX, V18, P133 SANTIAGO M, 1996, J ARIZONA HIST, V37, P283 SCHMIDT RH, 1992, HIST GEN CHIHUAHUA, V1, P47 SIMPSON LB, 1966, MANY MEXICOS TUTINO J, 1986, INSURRECTION REVOLUT WALLEN CC, 1955, GEOGRAFISKA ANN, V37, P51 WEST RC, 1949, IBEROAMERICANA, V30 WIGLEY TM, 1981, CLIMATE HIST WIGLEY TML, 1985, NATURE, V316, P106 YATES PLL, 1981, MEXICOS AGR DILEMMA NR 89 TC 0 J9 CLIMATIC CHANGE BP 391 EP 419 PY 2006 PD APR VL 75 IS 4 GA 046ED UT ISI:000237793300001 ER PT J AU Lowe, P Phillipson, J TI Reflexive interdisciplinary research: The making of a research programme on the Rural Economy and Land Use SO JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS LA English DT Article C1 Univ Newcastle, Sch Agr Food & Rural Dev, Ctr Rural Econ, Rural Econ & Land Use Programme, Newcastle Upon Tyne NE1 7RU, Tyne & Wear, England. RP Lowe, P, Univ Newcastle, Sch Agr Food & Rural Dev, Ctr Rural Econ, Rural Econ & Land Use Programme, Newcastle Upon Tyne NE1 7RU, Tyne & Wear, England. AB This paper provides an account of the origins and formation of the UK Research Councils' Rural Economy and Land Use (RELU) programme and its approach to promoting interdisciplinary working between social and natural scientists. The programme is set in the context of broader developments in science policy, including a policy discourse centred upon sustainable development and the knowledge economy and associated demands for greater accountability in science. Interdisciplinarity promises research that will be more relevant and responsive to public needs and concerns. In describing the provenance of the RELU programme, therefore, the paper seeks to lay out the different stages in its initiation and design to show how, to varying degrees, these were open to external scrutiny and influence. The process of developing the programme illustrates that it is not straightforward to make research agendas and funding more transparent and accountable. It also provides insights into the challenges that interdisciplinarity and accountability present to established science institutions. CR *AFRC ESRC NERC, 1994, JAEP REP JOINT AGR E *AGR ENV BIOT COMM, 2005, WHAT SHAP RES AG AGR *DEP ENV FOOD RUR, 2003, DEL EV DEFR SCI INN *DEP ENV TRANSP RE, 2000, OUR COUNTR FUT FAIR *DEP TRAD IND, 1998, OUR COMP FUT BUILD K *DEP TRAD IND, 2000, EXC OPP SCI INN POL *FOOD ETH COUNC, 2004, JUST KNOWL GOV RES F *HM TREAS DEP ED S, 2004, SCI INN INV FRAM 200 *HOUS LORDS SCI TE, 2000, SCI SOC *OFF SCI TECHN, 2001, QUINQ REV GRANT AW R, V2 *PERF INN UN, 1999, RUR EC *POL STUD I, 2002, NEW AG UK SUST DEV R *RELU, 2005, RELU COMM PLAN *RES COUNC UK, 2004, MEM RES COUNC UK COU ABBOTT A, 2001, CHAOS DISCIPLINES BATEMAN IJ, 2006, J AGR ECON, V57, P221 CAPRA F, 1996, WEB LIFE CLARK J, 1992, SOCIOL RURALIS, V32, P11 COOKE P, 2002, KNOWLEDGE EC CLUSTER DOUGILL AJ, 2006, J AGR ECON, V57, P259 HUBY M, 2006, J AGR ECON, V57, P295 JACOB M, 2000, FUTURE KNOWLEDGE PRO JASANOFF S, 1997, PUBLIC UNDERST SCI, V6, P221 KATES RW, 2001, SCIENCE, V292, P641 KLEIN JT, 1990, INTERDISCIPLINARITY KLEIN JT, 2004, EMERGENCE COMPLEXITY, V6, P2 LANE SN, 2006, J AGR ECON, V57, P239 LOWE P, 1992, SOCIOL RURALIS, V32, P4 MARZANO M, 2006, J AGR ECON, V57, P185 MATTHEWS R, 2006, J AGR ECON, V57, P199 MILES S, 2004, BRIT FOOD J, V106, P9 NEWBY H, 1993, CTR ADV STUD SOC SCI, P1 NOWOTNY H, 2001, RETHINKING SCI KNOWL NOWOTNY H, 2003, POTENTIAL TRANSDISCI PHILLIPSON J, 2006, KNOWLEDGE EXCHANGE R RHOTEN D, 2004, ITEMS ISSUES NEWSLET, V5, P6 SHEPHERD R, 2006, J AGR ECON, V57, P313 SHOVE E, 2005, ESRC SEM SER INT AG STRATHERN M, 2004, COMMONS BORDERLANDS TIFFIN R, 2006, J AGR ECON, V57, P213 WATERTON C, 2006, J AGR ECON, V57, P277 NR 41 TC 3 J9 J AGR ECON BP 165 EP 184 PY 2006 PD JUL VL 57 IS 2 GA 054RL UT ISI:000238396200002 ER PT J AU Pennington, DW Potting, J Finnveden, G Lindeijer, E Jolliet, O Rydberg, T Rebitzer, G TI Life cycle assessment Part 2: Current impact assessment practice SO ENVIRONMENT INTERNATIONAL LA English DT Review C1 Commiss European Communities, Joint Res Ctr, Inst Environm & Sustainabil, Soil & Waste Unit, I-21020 Ispra, Italy. Univ Groningen, Ctr Energy & Environm Studies, IVEM, NL-9747 AG Groningen, Netherlands. Royal Inst Technol, Ctr Environm Strategies Res, Fms, KTH, SE-10044 Stockholm, Sweden. TNO, Ind Technol, NL-5600 HE Eindhoven, Netherlands. Swiss Fed Inst Technol, Life Cycle Syst Grp, GECOS, ENAC, CH-1015 Lausanne, Switzerland. RP Potting, J, Commiss European Communities, Joint Res Ctr, Inst Environm & Sustainabil, Soil & Waste Unit, TP 460, I-21020 Ispra, Italy. AB Providing our society with goods and services contributes to a wide range of environmental impacts. Waste generation, emissions and the consumption of resources occur at many stages in a product's life cycle-from raw material extraction, energy acquisition, production and manufacturing, use, reuse, recycling, through to ultimate disposal. These all contribute to impacts such as climate change, stratospheric ozone depletion, photooxidant formation (smog), eutrophication, acidification, toxicological stress on human health and ecosystems, the depletion of resources and noise-among others. The need exists to address these product-related contributions more holistically and in an integrated manner, providing complimentary insights to those of regulatory/process-oriented methodologies. A previous article (Part 1, Rebitzer et al., 2004) outlined how to define and model a product's life cycle in current practice, as well as the methods and tools that are available for compiling the associated waste, emissions and resource consumption data into a life cycle inventory. This article highlights how practitioners and researchers from many domains have come together to provide indicators for the different impacts attributable to products in the life cycle impact assessment (LCIA) phase of life cycle assessment (LCA). (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 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VROM SCHMITZ S, 1999, 14042 ISO SCHWEINLE J, 2001, 202 BFH SEPPALA J, 2002, J IND ECOLOGY, V5, P45 SEPPALA J, 2003, IN PRESS INT J LCA SLEESWIJK AW, 2001, ENVIRON SCI POLLUT R, V8, P1 SOLBERGJOHANSEN B, 1998, THESIS U SURREY GUIL STEEN B, 1999, SYSTEMATIC APPROACH, P4 STEEN B, 1999, SYSTEMATIC APPROACH, P5 STUMM W, 1981, AQUATIC CHEM INTRO E THISSEN UMJ, 1999, 173 U NIJM DEP ENV S TRUSTY WB, 1997, ECOLOGICAL EFFECTS R UCHIDA H, 2002, EC 2002 C P NOV 6 8 VANDENBERG NW, 1999, 152 CML CTR ENV SCI VANEK R, 2002, 4202002943 TNO IND T VOLKWEIN S, 1996, INT J LCA, V1, P182 WEIDEMA BP, 2001, PHYS IMPACTS LAND US WENZEL H, 1997, ENV ASSESSMENT PRODU, V1 NR 144 TC 4 J9 ENVIRON INT BP 721 EP 739 PY 2004 PD JUL VL 30 IS 5 GA 821ZJ UT ISI:000221501800012 ER PT J AU STEINBERG, T TI WHAT IS A NATURAL-DISASTER + THE ENVIRONMENT AND HUMAN CULTURE SO LITERATURE AND MEDICINE LA English DT Article RP STEINBERG, T, NEW JERSEY INST TECHNOL,NEWARK,NJ 07102. CR 1909, NATION 0204, P105 1962, NEWSWEEK 0730, P44 1963, NEWSWEEK 1104, P69 1964, US NEWS WORLD R 1116, P92 1965, US NEWS WORLD R 0607, P10 1992, NEWSWEEK 0907, P23 *TRI STAT WEATH AS, CLOUD SEED SCI FRAUD *TRI STAT WEATH AS, THIS INT CAPT US BURTON I, 1978, ENV HAZARD, V1, P1 HALL DD, 1989, WORLDS WONDER DAYS J HEWITT K, 1983, INTERPRETATIONS CALA, P17 HOFSTADTER R, 1965, PARANOID STYLE AM PO KERR RA, 1982, SCI 0806, P519 MCCULLOUGH D, 1968, JOHNSTOWN FLOOD MCKIBBEN B, 1989, END NATURE MCPHEE J, 1989, CONTROL NATURE MITCHELL JM, 1964, US NEWS WORLD R 1130, P54 PERROW C, 1984, NORMAL ACCIDENTS LIV RICH B, 1994, MORTGAGING EARTH WOR SHOWALTER PS, 1993, UNPUB NATURAL HAZARD SPENCE C, 1980, RAINMAKERS AM PLUVIC STEINBERG T, 1994, THESE TIMES 0530, P14 STEINBERG T, 1995, SLIDE MOUNTAIN FOLLY SWANK G, CITED INDIRECTLY TINKER J, 1984, SOCIALIST REV, V14, P10 VANTWELL R, 1965, SPORTS ILLUSTRA 0809, P22 WORSTER D, 1992, WESTERN SKIES NATURE NR 27 TC 0 J9 LIT MED BP 33 EP 47 PY 1996 PD SPR VL 15 IS 1 GA UF342 UT ISI:A1996UF34200004 ER PT J AU Tixier, J Dandrieux, A Dusserre, G Bubbico, R Mazzarotta, B Silvetti, B Hubert, E Rodrigues, N Salvi, O TI Environmental vulnerability assessment in the vicinity of an industrial site in the frame of ARAMIS European project SO JOURNAL OF HAZARDOUS MATERIALS LA English DT Article C1 Ecole Mines Ales, LGEI, Ind Risk & Nat Hazard Dept, F-30319 Ales, France. Univ Roma La Sapienza, Dipartimento Ingn Chim, I-00184 Rome, Italy. Ecole Natl Super Mines, Ctr SITE, F-42023 St Etienne, France. INERIS, F-60550 Verneuil En Halatte, France. RP Tixier, J, Ecole Mines Ales, LGEI, Ind Risk & Nat Hazard Dept, 6 Ave Clavieres, F-30319 Ales, France. AB This work has been carried out in the framework of the ARAMIS project, which aims at developing a comprehensive procedure for assessing the risk level associated to an industrial site with respect to the surrounding environment. To this end, an index is defined which consists of the contribution of three terms, expressing the severity of the scenario consequences, the efficiency of the safety management and the vulnerability of the surrounding environment. The present work focuses on this last aspect concerning the determination of the vulnerability, of the area in the vicinity of an industrial site, of human, environmental (or natural) and material stakes. The applied methodology consists in identifying and quantifying the targets by the means of a geographical information system (GIS) and in assessing the contribution of each target on the basis of a multicriteria decision approach (Saaty method). The result is an operational tool allowing competent authorities, industrialists and risk experts to assess the vulnerability of the area surrounding an industrial site. (C) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. CR 1996, TELEATLAS BV ROADNET *ARPAT, 2000, AN RISCH AR LIV STRA *ESRI, 2000, ARCVIEW GIS 3 2 WIND *IFEN, 2002, COR LAND COV CART DA *INSEE, 1999, CDROM POP LEG REC PO *ISTAT, 1992, 13 CENS GEN POP AB R *MAPINFO, 2002, US GUID MAP INF 7 0 COBURN AW, 2001, VULNERABILITY RISK A EGIDI D, 1995, RELIAB ENG SYST SAFE, V49, P75 SAATY TL, 1984, DECIDER FACE COMPLEX TIXIER J, 2003, SAFETY RELIABILITY, V2, P1543 NR 11 TC 0 J9 J HAZARD MATER BP 251 EP 264 PY 2006 PD MAR 31 VL 130 IS 3 GA 028OS UT ISI:000236498200007 ER PT J AU Tao, F Yokozawa, M Hayashi, Y Lin, E TI Changes in agricultural water demands and soil moisture in China over the last half-century and their effects on agricultural production SO AGRICULTURAL AND FOREST METEOROLOGY LA English DT Article C1 Chinese Acad Agr Sci, Inst Agr Environm & Sustainable Dev, Beijing 100081, Peoples R China. Natl Inst Agroenvironm Sci, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 3058604, Japan. RP Tao, F, Chinese Acad Agr Sci, Inst Agr Environm & Sustainable Dev, Beijing 100081, Peoples R China. AB It has become obvious in recent years that water is the most critical resource for Chinese agricultural ecosystems. Changes in agricultural water demands and soil moisture have significant implications for China's water supply, the potential for drought and flood, and agricultural production. In the studies, we explored the changing trends in agricultural water demands, the changing trends and variability in soil moisture associated with both drought and increased surface runoff in Chinese croplands during the last half-century, and their impacts on agricultural production. We plotted temporal and spatial changes in agricultural water demands, soil moisture, soil-moisture variability, soil-moisture deficit, yield index, and surface runoff on a grid of 0.5degrees resolution. We found a trend toward agricultural water demands increasing, soil drying and significant changes in soil-moisture variability on the North China Plain and the Northeast China Plain. There was a significant decrease in agricultural water demands and a significant increase in soil-moisture levels in Southwest China, and a generally insignificant increase or decrease trend in agricultural water demands and soil-moisture levels in Southeast China. These changes in agricultural water demands and soil-moisture levels had corresponding impacts on soil-moisture deficit, and consequently on agricultural production. Increased surface runoff was found in the mountainous areas of the southwest and northeast, and in some areas along the South Coast. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. CR *CHIN STAT FLOOD C, 1997, FLOOD DROUGHT DIS CH *COMP COMM STAT AT, 1989, AGR ATL CHIN, P34 *FAO, 1992, 46 FAO LAND WAT DEV *FAO, 1992, REP EXP CONS REV FAO MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 *US WAT SECT ASS T, 2000, POT IMP CLIM CHANG V BLACK JN, 1956, ARCH METEOROL GEOPHY, V7, P165 BUDYKO MI, 1956, GIDROMETEOROLOGICHES, P255 CHANG JH, 1970, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V60, P340 DUNNE KA, 1996, INT J CLIMATOL, V16, P841 EVANS TE, 1996, GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANG FEDDEMA JJ, 1998, CLIMATE RES, V10, P127 FENG Q, 1999, AMBIO, V28, P202 GLEICK PH, 1987, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V10, P137 GONG DY, 2000, CLIMATE RES, V16, P51 GREGORY JM, 1997, J CLIMATE, V10, P662 HEILIG GK, 1999, CHINA FOOD CAN CHINA KRON W, 1998, UBERSCHWEMUNGEN CHIN, V12, P739 NASH LL, 1993, EPA230R93009 NEW M, 1999, J CLIMATE, V12, P829 NEW M, 2000, J CLIMATE, V13, P2217 PENMAN HL, 1948, P ROY SOC LOND A MAT, V193, P120 PRESS WH, 1992, NUMERICAL RECIPES FO, P107 QIAN WH, 2001, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V50, P419 STORR D, 1978, COMP DAILY SNOWMELT TAO S, 1991, NDP039 ORNLCDIAC47 THOMAS A, 2000, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V102, P71 WETHERALD RT, 1999, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V43, P495 WILLMOTT CJ, 1985, J CLIMATOL, V5, P589 ZHENG Z, 1994, AEZ ASIA, P79 NR 30 TC 0 J9 AGR FOREST METEOROL BP 251 EP 261 PY 2003 PD SEP 30 VL 118 IS 3-4 GA 724ZA UT ISI:000185517100008 ER PT J AU Lal, M Singh, KK Rathore, LS Srinivasan, G Saseendran, SA TI Vulnerability of rice and wheat yields in NW India to future changes in climate SO AGRICULTURAL AND FOREST METEOROLOGY LA English DT Article C1 Natl Ctr Medium Range Weather Forecasting, New Delhi 110003, India. Indian Inst Technol, Ctr Atmospher Sci, New Delhi, India. India Meteorol Dept, New Delhi, India. RP Rathore, LS, Natl Ctr Medium Range Weather Forecasting, Mausam Bhavan,Lodi Rd, New Delhi 110003, India. AB Agricultural sector is one of the sensitive areas which would be influenced by the projected global warming and associated climate change. In spite of the uncertainties about the precise magnitude of climate change on regional scales, an assessment of the possible impacts of changes in key climatic elements on our agricultural resources is important for formulating response strategies. In this study, vulnerability of wheat and rice crops in northwest India to the projected climate change is examined. CERES wheat and rice models adopted for the study were validated for their ability to reproduce yields at the selected NW Indian stations. The sensitivity experiments with these models showed higher yields for both wheat and rice (28% and 15% respectively for a doubling of CO2) under elevated CO2 levels. A 3 degrees C (2 degrees C) rise in air temperature nearly cancels out the positive effect of elevated CO2 on the wheat (rice) yields. While the wheat crops are found to be sensitive to increase in maximum temperature, the rice crops are vulnerable to increase in minimum temperature. The combined effect of enhanced CO2 and imposed thermal stress on the wheat (rice) crop is 21% (4%) increase in yield for the irrigation schedule presently practised in the region. While the adverse impacts of likely water shortage on wheat crops would be minimised to a certain extent under elevated CO2 levels, they would largely be maintained for the rice crops resulting in about 20% net decline in rice yields. In general, acute water shortage conditions combined with the thermal stress should adversely affect both the wheat and more severely the rice productivity in NW India even under the positive effects of elevated CO2 in the future. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science B.V. CR ALOCILJA EC, 1988, IBSNAT RES REPORT SE, V1 BUTTERFIELD RE, 1992, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V62, P241 CHAUHAN DS, 1970, INDIAN J AGRON, V15, P46 CRISANTO RE, 1994, CLIMATE IMPACT ASSES, P15 CURE JD, 1985, DIRECT EFFECTS INCRE, P100 CURE JD, 1986, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V38, P127 CURRY RB, 1990, T ASAE, V33, P981 DHIMAN SD, 1985, HAR AGR UNI J RES, V15, P158 GENNADIY VM, 1994, 230B94003 EPA US CLI, P1 GIFFORD RM, 1988, AGRICULTURE, P506 GODWIN D, 1989, USERS GUIDE CERES WH, P61 GODWIN D, 1992, USERS GUIDE CERES RI HOUGHTON, 1996, 2 SCI ASSESSMENT CLI, P572 HUKKERI SB, 1977, MONOGRAPH IARI, V4, P163 KARL TR, 1991, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V18, P2253 LAL M, 1995, CURR SCI INDIA, V69, P752 LAL M, 1996, CURR SCI INDIA, V71, P746 MORISON JIL, 1987, STOMATAL FUNCTION, P229 OTAVIO JFD, 1994, IMPLICATIONS CLIMATE, P1 PEART RM, 1988, FINAL REPORT IMPACT RAO DG, 1994, IMPLICATION CLIMATE, P1 RITCHIE JT, 1989, USDA ARS, V38, P159 ROSENZWEIG C, 1994, IMPLICATIONS CLIMATE, P3 ROSENZWEIG C, 1996, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V80, P215 SAINI AD, 1987, INDIAN J AGR SCI, V57, P351 SINHA SK, 1991, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V16, P33 TSUJI GY, 1994, DSSAT V3 WARRICK RA, 1986, GREENHOUSE EFFECT CL, P393 WATSON, 1996, IMPACTS ADAPTATIONS, P879 ZHANG JC, 1989, METEOROL MAG, V15, P3 ZHIQING J, 1994, IMPLICATIONS CLIMATE, P1 NR 31 TC 8 J9 AGR FOREST METEOROL BP 101 EP 114 PY 1998 PD FEB VL 89 IS 2 GA ZB030 UT ISI:000072427800003 ER PT J AU Huang, YF Zou, Y Huang, GH Maqsood, I Chakma, A TI Flood vulnerability to climate change through hydrological modeling - A case study of the swift current creek watershed in western Canada SO WATER INTERNATIONAL LA English DT Article C1 Univ Regina, Regina, SK S4S 0A2, Canada. Univ Waterloo, Waterloo, ON N2L 3G1, Canada. RP Huang, YF, Univ Regina, Regina, SK S4S 0A2, Canada. AB Determination of flood vulnerability to climate change is one of the most critical issues for regional water management. Most of the previous studies related to system vulnerabilities to climate change were either a qualitative assessment without the support of hydrological modeling or too complex to apply them to real-world systems. In this study, a modeling and assessment system is proposed to tackle flood vulnerability to the climate change through the incorporation of future climate change scenarios, rainfall-runoff simulation, and vulnerability estimation within an integrated frame. The developed approach is applied to provide decision support for flood management of the Swift Current Creek watershed in Western Canada. The approach not only is useful to determine relative flood vulnerabilities to climate change for supporting flood control planning in the watershed, but also can be extended to estimate vulnerabilities of water quality and water supply to climate change. CR *DHI, 2000, MIKE11 REF MAN BABAEYANKOOPAEI K, 2003, J ENV INFORMATICS, V1, P28 BARNETT T, 2004, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V62, P1 BENDER MJ, 1997, SUSTAINABILITY CRITE BOER GJ, 2000, CLIM DYNAM, V16, P427 BRESLOW PB, 2002, RENEW ENERG, V27, P585 CHAUDHARY V, 2002, ENV MANAGEMENT HLTH, V13, P175 DETTINGER MD, 2004, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V62, P283 FLATO GM, 1992, J PHYS OCEANOGR, V22, P626 FLATO GM, 2000, CLIM DYNAM, V16, P451 FOWLER HJ, 2003, WATER RESOUR RES, V39 GAN TY, 2000, WATER RESOUR MANAG, V14, P111 GENT PR, 1990, J PHYS OCEANOGR, V20, P150 GOLUBTSOV VV, 1996, WATER RESOUR DEV, V12, P193 KELLY PM, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V47, P325 LOUKAS A, 2002, J HYDROL, V259, P163 LUO B, 2003, J ENV INFORM, V2, P58 MIMIKOU MA, 2000, J HYDROL, V234, P95 MUZIK I, 2002, J HYDROL, V267, P65 NASH JE, 1970, J HYDROL, V10, P282 NASH LL, 1991, J HYDROL, V125, P221 NIELSEN SA, 1973, NORD HYDROL, V4, P171 PANAGOULIA D, 1997, J HYDROL, V191, P208 REFSGAARD JC, 1996, WATER RESOUR RES, V32, P2189 SIMONOVIC SP, 2003, J WATER RES PL-ASCE, V129, P361 STRZEPEK KM, 1996, WATER RESOURCES DEV, V12, P111 VOROSMARTY CJ, 2000, SCIENCE, V289, P284 WANG GW, 2003, EDUC ASIA-PACIFIC, V2, P1 WATSOIN RT, 1996, IMPACTS ADAPTATIONS WOODVINE RJ, 1981, CITY SWIFT CURRENT F YIN YY, 2003, J ENV INFORMATICS, V2, P1 NR 31 TC 0 J9 WATER INT BP 31 EP 39 PY 2005 PD MAR VL 30 IS 1 GA 002NR UT ISI:000234618700005 ER PT J AU WESTING, AH TI COMPREHENSIVE HUMAN SECURITY AND ECOLOGICAL REALITIES SO ENVIRONMENTAL CONSERVATION LA English DT Editorial Material C1 HAMPSHIRE COLL,ECOL,AMHERST,MA 01002. RP WESTING, AH, INT PEACE RES INST,FUGLEHAUGGATA 11,N-0260 OSLO 2,NORWAY. CR 1989, ENV CONSVERATION WIM, V16 NR 1 TC 4 J9 ENVIRON CONSERV BP 295 EP 295 PY 1989 PD WIN VL 16 IS 4 GA DE670 UT ISI:A1989DE67000003 ER PT J AU [Anon] TI Launching a Dialogue on Water, Food and the Environment SO WATER SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY LA English DT Article AB Water management faces serious and growing challenges, as the example of Gujarat, India, makes clear, yet is still handicapped by the traditional sectoral barriers of water professionals. In response the Dialogue on Water, Food and Environment has been launched to bring together the water, agriculture and environmental sectors to address the problems of water resources management so as to achieve the twin goals of food and environmental security. NR 0 TC 0 J9 WATER SCI TECHNOL BP 19 EP 21 PY 2002 VL 45 IS 8 GA 552DL UT ISI:000175603500009 ER PT J AU Hoes, OAC Schuurmans, W Strijker, J TI Water systems and risk analysis SO WATER SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY LA English DT Article C1 Delft Univ Technol, Dept Water Resources, NL-2600 GA Delft, Netherlands. Nelen & Schuurmans Colsultants, NL-3720 BA Bilthoven, Netherlands. Hollands Noorderkwartier Water Board, NL-1440 AW Purmerend, Netherlands. RP Hoes, OAC, Delft Univ Technol, Dept Water Resources, POB 5048, NL-2600 GA Delft, Netherlands. AB Worldwide the water management sector is about to review the design standards for water systems, as expected climate changes may possibly increase the frequency of flood events. This paper reviews new flood standards for surface water systems in The Netherlands, also presenting a cost-benefit analysis. Flood standards were formulated after several serious incidents in 1998 and 2001 to inform residents about the level of protection that they may expect to receive. At this moment all water boards are about to evaluate their water systems using these standards. The cost-benefit approach has been applied to determine whether the necessary measures to comply with such standards were cost-effective. We found that the standards make too much a simplification of the variety of water systems, and lead to costly measures without being beneficial while many small-scale floods in The Netherlands do not cause any significant damage. A better starting point to anticipate on climate change is to prevent damage, instead of the prevention of flooding. CR *GRONTM, 2000, 1399010374ACK GRONTM *HHN5, 2004, BESCH WAT NOORD WATSON RT, 1998, REGIONAL IMPACTS CLI, V1, P1 *KNMI, 2003, TOESTAND KLIM NED ARNELL NW, 1986, WATER RESOURCES PLAN, V12, P104 BEDFORD T, 2001, PROBABILISTIC RISK A HARTER HL, 1968, J AM STAT ASSOC, V63, P889 LEESE MN, 1973, WATER RESOUR RES, V9, P1534 MEIJERINK MH, 2004, IBO BEK WAT STUMPE J, 2000, WAT 21 EEUW ADV COMM TOBIN GA, 1997, NATURAL HAZARDS EXPL VOORTMAN HG, 2003, THESIS DELFT U TECHN NR 12 TC 0 J9 WATER SCI TECHNOL BP 105 EP 112 PY 2005 VL 51 IS 5 GA 931CW UT ISI:000229464400016 ER PT J AU Huigen, MGA Jens, IC TI Socio-economic impact of super typhoon Harurot in San Mariano, Isabela, the Philippines SO WORLD DEVELOPMENT LA English DT Article C1 Leiden Univ, NL-2300 RA Leiden, Netherlands. RP Huigen, MGA, Leiden Univ, NL-2300 RA Leiden, Netherlands. AB This paper reports on the socio-economic effects and coping mechanisms of farm households affected by super typhoon Imbudo in San Mariano, Isabela, the Philippines. Estimations of economic losses are given based on 150 interviews among the rural population. The relative loss per crop as part of the annual household income for yellow corn, banana, and rice were 64%, 24%, and 27%, respectively. Unexpectedly, most farm households did not change their agricultural strategies and continued with "business as usual" (78%). The main explanation for this lack of adaptation is found in the cultural and societal structure of farm households and their traders. This paper concludes with a short-term and long-term vulnerability and resilience analysis for the households, the socio-agricultural system, and the ecological system. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *ACT, 2003, SUP TYPH HITS PHIL 2 *MAN TIM, 2003, ITS FIN HAR DAM RIS *NSO, 2001, PHIL YB CENS 2000 *UNDRO, 1979, DIS PREV MIT, V7 *VIRT INF CTR, 2003, TYPH HAR HITS PHIL BANKOFF G, 1999, PACIFIC REV BANKOFF G, 2003, CULTURES DIS SOC NAT BENSON C, 1997, 99 ODI BENSON C, 2004, DISASTER RISK MANAGE, V4 BENSON C, 2004, MEASURING MITIGATION BLAIKIE PM, 1994, RISK NATURAL HAZARDS, V1, P1 BULL R, 1994, DISASTER EC DISASTER DEGROOT WT, 1992, ENV SCI THEORY CONCE DELNINNO C, 2001, 122 IFPRI DELNINNO C, 2003, WORLD DEV, V31, P1221 EISENSTADT SN, 1981, POLITICAL CLIENTELIS HUIGEN MGA, 2004, J ENVIRON MANAGE, V72, P5 JOVEL R, 1989, EC SOCIAL CONSEQUENC MCGUIGAN C, 2002, POVERTY CLIMATE CHAN OVERMARS KP, 2005, INT J GEOGR INF SYST, V19, P1 PERSSON GA, 2003, SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAI, P209 POLET G, 1991, 3 U LEID RUTTEN R, 2001, J HUMANITIES SOCIAL, V157, P629 TOBIN GA, 1999, ENV HAZARDS, V1, P13 TWIGG J, 2001, 2 BENF GREIG HAZ RES VANDENTOP GM, 1998, THESIS CTR ENV SCI L VANDERWERF I, 1994, 38 U LEID IS STAT U VANWEERD M, 2002, CROCODILES, P97 WILLIAM HS, GERMAN TRAVELERS COR WISNER B, 2001, UN CHRONICLE, V3, P6 ZAPATAMARTI R, 1997, P EXP CONS METH BRUS NR 31 TC 0 J9 WORLD DEVELOP BP 2116 EP 2136 PY 2006 PD DEC VL 34 IS 12 GA 118DI UT ISI:000242921900008 ER PT J AU Kelly, PM Adger, WN TI Theory and practice in assessing vulnerability to climate change and facilitating adaptation SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 Univ E Anglia, Climat Res Unit, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. Univ E Anglia, Sch Environm Sci, Ctr Social & Econ Res Global Environm, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. RP Kelly, PM, Univ E Anglia, Climat Res Unit, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. AB We discuss approaches to the assessment of vulnerability to climate variability and change and attempt to clarify the relationship between the concepts of vulnerability and adaptation. In search of a robust, policy-relevant framework, we define vulnerability in terms of the capacity of individuals and social groups to respond to, that is, to cope with, recover from or adapt to, any external stress placed on their livelihoods and well-being. The approach that we develop places the social and economic well-being of society at the centre of the analysis, focussing on the socio-economic and institutional constraints that limit the capacity to respond. From this perspective, the vulnerability or security of any group is determined by resource availability and by the entitlement of individuals and groups to call on these resources. We illustrate the application of this approach through the results of field research in coastal Vietnam, highlighting shifting patterns of vulnerability to tropical storm impacts at the household- and community-level in response to the current process of economic renovation and drawing conclusions concerning means of supporting the adaptive response to climate stress. Four priorities for action are identified that would improve the situation of the most exposed members of many communities: poverty reduction; risk-spreading through income diversification; respecting common property management rights; and promoting collective security. A sustainable response, we argue, must also address the underlying causes of social vulnerability, including the inequitable distribution of resources. CR *WORLD BANK, 1995, VIETN POV ASS STRAT ADGER WN, 1996, 9605 CSERGE GEC U E ADGER WN, 1997, 9721 GEC U E ANGL U ADGER WN, 1997, COMMONWEALTH FORESTR, V76, P198 ADGER WN, 1998, 9821 GEC U E ANGL U ADGER WN, 1998, WETLANDS LANDSCAPE I, P167 ADGER WN, 1999, J DEV STUD, V35, P96 ADGER WN, 1999, MITIG ADAPT STRAT GL, V4, P253 ADGER WN, 1999, WORLD DEV, V27, P249 ADGER WN, 2000, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V90, P738 ADGER WN, 2001, IN PRESS LIVING ENV BARBIER EB, 1993, GEOGR J, V159, P22 BARDHAN P, 1996, ECON J, V106, P1344 BENGTSSON L, 1996, TELLUS A, V48, P57 BENSON C, 1997, 98 OV DEV I BLAIKIE PM, 1994, RISK NATURAL HAZARDS, V1, P1 BOHLE HG, 1994, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V4, P37 BRAMMER H, 1993, CLIMATE SEA LEVEL CH, P246 BURTON I, 1997, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V36, P185 CANNON T, 1994, DISASTERS DEV ENV, P13 CHONGYIN L, 1988, ADV ATMOS SCI, V5, P107 CUTTER SL, 1996, PROG HUM GEOG, V20, P529 DOWNING TE, 1991, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V1, P365 EWEL KC, 1998, GLOBAL ECOL BIOGEOGR, V7, P83 FIELD CD, 1998, MAR POLLUT BULL, V37, P383 FOLKE C, 1992, OCEAN COAST MANAGE, V17, P5 GLANTZ MH, 1991, ENVIRONMENT, V33, P10 HEWITT K, 1997, REGIONS RISK GEOGRAP, V1, P1 HIRSCH P, 1996, AUST GEOGR, V27, P165 HOUGHTON JT, 1990, CLIMATE CHANGE IPCC HOUGHTON JT, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995 KATES RW, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P5 KELLY PM, 1994, ASIA PACIFIC J ENV D, V1, P28 KELLY PM, 2000, SCI ENV DECISION MAK, P118 KELLY PM, 2001, IN PRESS LIVING ENV KLEIN RJT, 1999, AMBIO, V28, P182 KNUTSON TR, 1998, SCIENCE, V279, P1018 LANDER MA, 1994, MON WEATHER REV, V122, P636 LI C, 1987, ACTA METEOROLOGICA S, V45, P229 LIGHTHILL J, 1994, B AM METEOROL SOC, V75, P2147 MCGREGOR GR, 1994, APPL GEOG, V15, P35 NAKAGAWA S, 1998, GLOBAL WARMING POTEN, P1 NAYLOR R, 1998, ENVIRON DEV ECON, V3, P471 NISHIMORI M, 1990, GEOG REV JAPAN A, V63, P530 ORIORDAN T, 1999, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V9, P81 PALUTIKOF JP, 1997, EC IMPACTS HOT SUMME REARDON T, 1996, WORLD DEV, V24, P901 RIBOT JC, 1996, CLIMATE VARIABILITY, V1, P1 SANDERSON S, 1994, CHANGES LAND USE LAN, P329 SAUNDERS MA, 2000, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V27, P1147 SCHNEIDER SH, 1997, ENVIRON MODEL ASSESS, V2, P229 SCOTT JC, 1976, MORAL EC PEASANT REB SEN AK, 1981, POVERTY FAMINES ESSA, V1, P1 SEN AK, 1990, POLITICAL EC HUNGER, V1, P34 SMIT B, 1996, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V33, P7 SMITH JB, 1996, ADAPTING CLIMATE CHA SMITHERS J, 1997, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V7, P129 SUGI M, 1996, P 1996 SPRING M JAP, P37 TOL RSJ, 1998, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V8, P109 TRI NH, 1998, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V8, P49 VINH TT, 1995, WORKSH MANGR PLANT S WALSH K, 1998, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V39, P199 WATSON RT, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, V1, P1 WATTS MJ, 1993, PROG HUM GEOG, V17, P43 WISNER BG, 1978, DISASTERS, V2, P80 NR 65 TC 14 J9 CLIMATIC CHANGE BP 325 EP 352 PY 2000 PD DEC VL 47 IS 4 GA 365XV UT ISI:000089976500001 ER PT J AU Nilsson, M TI Learning, frames, and environmental policy integration: the case of Swedish energy policy SO ENVIRONMENT AND PLANNING C-GOVERNMENT AND POLICY LA English DT Article C1 Stockholm Environm Inst, SE-10314 Stockholm, Sweden. RP Nilsson, M, Stockholm Environm Inst, POB 2142, SE-10314 Stockholm, Sweden. AB Environmental policy integration (EPI) has been advanced as a guiding policy principle in Europe to ensure that environmental concerns are considered across all areas of policymaking. EPI can be treated analytically as a process of policy learning. The author analyses EPI and other types of learning in Swedish energy policy from the late 1980s up to today. A systematic tracing of agendas, arguments, and policy change indicates that learning processes and partial EPI have occurred. Changing actor configurations and increasing resource dependencies have facilitated learning and EPI, driven in turn by the European deregulation processes, global policy agendas, and the development of the Nordic electricity market. However, learning and EPI has been slow, indirect, and partial-constrained by how policymaking is organised in central government. Further measures are needed to advance EPI in national sector policy, including the development of policy-level strategic assessments and stronger sector accountabilities. 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RP Davis, I, Cranfield Univ, Resilience Ctr, Humanitarian Resilence Ctr, Def Acad, Swindon SN6 8LA, Wilts, England. AB Many societies in the world live with different types of risks and the threat of disasters has always presented a major challenge to devise ways to achieve sustainable development by reducing patterns of vulnerability. Disaster reduction is therefore crucial and must have a place in national policies in order to create favourable conditions for effective and efficient hazard mitigation at various levels. This con help in increasing the resilience among communities at risk by enabling them to withstand shocks, cope with emergencies as they bounce back from the impact and adopt in new ways to cope with future threats. The aim of this paper is to explore the concept of resilience in general and what this means before, during, and after disaster impact. Case studies ore cited to indicate how resilience operates or foils to occur and why, The study defines how resilience con be developed to create sustainable systems and structures that focus on robustness, redundancy, resourcefulness and rapidity. CR 2005, BBC NEWS 0713 *IFRC RC, 2004, WORLD DIS REP 2004 *UNISDR, 2002, LIV RISK GLOB REV DI ALLENMILLS, 2005, SUNDAY TIMES 0904, P13 BRUNEAU M, 2003, EARTHQ SPECTRA, V19, P733 COMFORT L, 1999, SHARED RISK COMPLEX DAVIS I, 2001, LOCATION OPERATION E DAVIS I, 2003, EFFECTIVENESS CURREN DAVIS I, 2004, 13 WORLD C EARTHQ EN DAVIS I, 2005, RESILIENT COMMUNITIE ELLIOT L, 2005, GUARDIAN 0905, P21 HARI J, 2005, INDEPENDENT 0906, P25 HORNE J, 1998, EMPLOYMENT RELATIONS, V24, P31 JAQUEMENT I, 2004, WORLD DISASTER REPOR, CH4 MILETI D, 1999, DISASTERS DESIGN REA PELLING M, 2003, VULNERABILITY CITIES REID T, 2005, TIMES 0903, P7 WILDAVSKY A, 1991, SEARCHING SAFETY NR 18 TC 0 J9 OPEN HOUSE INT BP 11 EP 21 PY 2006 PD MAR VL 31 IS 1 GA 103LC UT ISI:000241885700003 ER PT B AU Burton, I Kates, RW White, GF TI The Environment as Hazard SO ENV HAZARD LA English DT Book AB The disastrous effects of natural hazards such as earthquakes, floods, and hurricanes are often called "Acts of God." Challenging that view, this long-awaited second edition of a now classic work depicts natural hazards as extreme events in nature that are made even more dangerous by either the acts or the neglect of people. Featuring new introductory and concluding chapters that supplement and update the original text, this book offers an understanding of how people around the world deal with fluctuations in the local natural systems of air, water, and terrain. Illustrated with vivid examples from a broad sample of countries, this volume contrasts hazards in developing countries with those in high income countries, including hurricanes in Bangladesh and the United States and earthquakes in Nicaragua and California. It then presents a theory of how modes of coping change with levels of development. C1 CR WHITE GF, 1975, ASSESSMENT RES NATUR, V1, P1 NR 1 TC 0 BP 1 EP 290 PY 1978 VL 1 ER PT J AU Metzger, MJ Schroter, D TI Towards a spatially explicit and quantitative vulnerability assessment of environmental change in Europe SO REGIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 Univ Wageningen & Res Ctr, Plant Product Syst Grp, NL-6700 AK Wageningen, Netherlands. Univ Wageningen & Res Ctr, Environm Syst Anal Grp, NL-6700 AA Wageningen, Netherlands. Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res, Dept Global Change & Nat syst, D-14412 Potsdam, Germany. RP Metzger, MJ, Univ Wageningen & Res Ctr, Plant Product Syst Grp, POB 430, NL-6700 AK Wageningen, Netherlands. AB Over the next century, society will increasingly be confronted with the impacts of global change (e.g. pollution, land use changes, and climate change). Multiple scenarios provide us with a range of possible changes in socio-economic trends, land uses and climate (i.e. exposure) and allow us to assess the response of ecosystems and changes in the services they provide (i.e. potential impacts). Since vulnerability to global change is less when society is able to adapt, it is important to provide decision makers with tools that will allow them to assess and compare the vulnerability of different sectors and regions to global change, taking into account exposure and sensitivity, as well as adaptive capacity. This paper presents a method that allows quantitative spatial analyses of the vulnerability of the human-environment system on a European scale. It is a first step towards providing stakeholders and policy makers with a spatially explicit portfolio of comparable projections of ecosystem services, providing a basis for discussion on the sustainable management of Europe's natural resources. CR *IMAGE TEAM, 2001, IMAGE 2 2 IMPL SRES MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 *IPCC, 2001, CLIM CHANG 2001 MIT *IPCC, 2001, CLIM CHANG 2001 SCI *MILL EC ASS, 2003, EC HUM WELL BEING FR *UNEP, 2002, GEO 3 GLOB ENV OUTL *WORLD CONS MON CT, 1992, GLOB BIOD STAT EARTH BUNCE RGH, 1987, BIOMASS ENERGY IND, P1272 BUNCE RGH, 1996, J ENVIRON MANAGE, V47, P37 CARTER TR, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, P145 DAILY GC, 1997, NATURES SERVICES EKBOIR J, 2002, CIMMYT 2000 2001 WOR EWERT F, 2005, AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON, V107, P101 GROTHMANN T, 2006, NAT HAZARDS, V38, P101 JONGMAN RHG, 2006, LANDSCAPE ECOL, V21, P409 KANKAANPAA S, 2004, FINNISH ENV, V707 KASPERSON JX, 2001, INT WORKSH VULN GLOB, P36 KATES RW, 2001, SCIENCE, V292, P641 KLIJN F, 1994, LANDSCAPE ECOL, V9, P89 LEEMANS R, 2004, EXTREME WEATHER DOES LUERS AL, 2003, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V13, P255 METZGER MJ, 2004, ATEAM VULNERABILITY METZGER MJ, 2005, GLOBAL ECOL BIOGEOGR, V14, P549 METZGER MJ, 2005, INT J APPL EARTH OBS, V7, P253 METZGER MJ, 2005, THESIS WAGENINGEN U MITCHELL TD, 2004, COMPREHENSIVE SET HI NAKICENOVIC N, 2000, IPCC SPECIAL REPORT OBRIEN KL, 2004, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V64, P193 PARMESAN C, 2003, NATURE, V421, P37 PETSCHELHELD G, 1999, ENVIRON MODEL ASSESS, V4, P295 ROOT TL, 2003, NATURE, V421, P57 ROUNSEVELL MDA, 2005, AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON, V107, P117 ROUNSEVELL MDA, 2006, AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON, V114, P57 RUOSTEENOJA K, 2003, FINNISH ENV, V644 SALA OE, 2000, SCIENCE, V287, P1770 SCHROTER D, 2003, 5 OP M HUM DIM GLOB SCHROTER D, 2005, MITIGATION ADAPTATIO, V10, P573 SCHROTER D, 2005, SCIENCE, V310, P1333 SHKARUBA AD, 2006, DESCRIPTION STAT EUR SITCH S, 2003, GLOBAL CHANGE BIOL, V9, P161 SMITH JB, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, P913 SMITH P, 1998, GLOB CHANGE BIOL, V4, P773 SMITH VH, 1999, ENVIRON POLLUT, V100, P179 STENSETH NC, 2002, SCIENCE, V297, P1292 TUCK G, 2006, BIOMASS BIOENERG, V30, P183 TURNER BL, 2003, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V100, P8074 VANDERMEIJDEN R, 1996, GORTERIA, V22, P1 VANITTERSUM MK, 2003, EUR J AGRON, V18, P201 WALKER BH, 2002, CONSERV ECOL, V6, P1 WALTER H, 1973, VEGETATION EARTH REL WALTHER GR, 2002, NATURE, V416, P389 WALTNERTOEWS D, 2003, FRONT ECOL ENVIRON, V1, P23 WATSON RT, 2000, LAND USE LAND USE CH YOHE GW, 2002, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V12, P25 ZAEHLE S, 2004, GEOPHYS RES ABSTR, V6, P3808 NR 55 TC 0 J9 REG ENVIRON CHANG BP 201 EP 216 PY 2006 PD DEC VL 6 IS 4 GA 115SS UT ISI:000242754700004 ER PT J AU Smit, B Cai, YL TI Climate change and agriculture in China SO GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS LA English DT Article C1 BEIJING UNIV,DEPT GEOG,BEIJING 100871,PEOPLES R CHINA. RP Smit, B, UNIV GUELPH,DEPT GEOG,GUELPH,ON N1G 2W1,CANADA. AB The implications of climate change for agriculture and food are global concerns, and they are very important for China, The country depends on an agricultural system which has evolved over thousands of years to intensively exploit environmental conditions. The pressures on the resource base are accentuated by the prospect of climate change, This paper synthesizes information from a variety of studies on Chinese agriculture and climate. Historical studies document the impacts of past climate changes and extremes, and the types of adjustments which have occurred, the vulnerability of Chinese agriculture to climate change, Climate change scenarios are assessed relative to the current distribution of agro-climatic regions and systems, Notwithstanding the enhancing effects of warming and elevated CO2 levels, expected moisture deficits and uncertain changes in the timing and frequency of critical conditions indicate that there are serious threats to the stability and adaptability of China's food production system. 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Univ Louvain, Louvain, Belgium. Univ Osnabruck, D-4500 Osnabruck, Germany. Clark Univ, Worcester, MA 01610 USA. Univ Wageningen & Res Ctr, Wageningen, Netherlands. RP Young, OR, Univ Calif Santa Barbara, Bren Sch, Santa Barbara, CA 93106 USA. AB The challenge confronting those seeking to understand the institutional dimensions of global environmental change and patterns of land-use and land-cover change is to find effective methods for analyzing the dynamics of socio-ecological systems. Such systems exhibit a number of characteristics that pose problems for the most commonly used statistical techniques and may require additional and innovative analytic tools. This article explores options available to researchers working in this field and recommends a strategy for achieving scientific progress. Statistical procedures developed in other fields of study are often helpful in addressing challenges arising in research into global change. Accordingly, we start with an assessment of some of the enhanced statistical techniques that are available for the study of socio-ecological systems. By themselves, however, even the most advanced statistical models cannot solve all the problems that arise in efforts to explain institutional effectiveness and patterns of land-use and land-cover change. We therefore proceed to an exploration of additional analytic techniques, including configurational comparisons and meta-analyses; case studies, counterfactuals, and narratives; and systems analysis and simulations. Our goal is to create a portfolio of complementary methods or, in other words, a tool kit for understanding complex human-environment interactions. When the results obtained through the use of two or more techniques converge, confidence in the robustness of key findings rises. Contradictory results, on the other hand, signal a need for additional analysis. CR *IND NAT SCI AC, 2001, GROW POP CHANG LANDS AGRAWAL A, 2001, COMMUNITIES ENV ETHN ALCAMO J, IN PRESS SCENARIOS F ALCOCK F, 2002, WORLD POLIT, V54, P437 ANGELSEN A, 1999, WORLD BANK RES OBSER, V14, P73 ANSELIN L, 2001, COMPANION THEORETICA, P310 ANTROP M, 2005, LANDSCAPE URBAN PLAN, V70, P21 AXELROD RM, 2000, HARNESSING COMPLEXIT AYRES RU, 1994, IND METABOLISM RESTR BARRETEAU O, 2001, JASSS-J ARTIF SOC S, V4, U75 BOISSAU S, 2003, SIMULATIONS GAMING, V34, P342 BREITMEIER H, 2006, ANAL INT ENV REGIMES CAMPBELL DT, 1959, PSYCHOL BULL, V56, P81 CARPENTER SR, 2004, ECOL SOC, V9, P8 CARPENTER SR, 2005, ECOSYSTEMS HUMAN WEL, V2 CHECKLAND P, 1993, SYSTEMS THINKING SYS CLIFF AD, 1973, SPATIAL AUTOCORRELAT CRUMLEY CL, 2001, NEW DIRECTIONS ANTHR DEFRIES RS, 2004, ECOSYSTEMS LAND USE EASTERLING WE, 2004, SCALE GEOGRAPHIC INQ, P55 ECKSTEIN H, 1975, HDB POLITICAL SCI, R20 FARINA A, 2000, BIOSCIENCE, V50, P313 FEARON JD, 1991, WORLD POLIT, V43, P169 FIELD CB, 2004, GLOBAL CARBON CYCLE FOSTER DR, 1998, NORTHEAST NAT, V5, P111 FOSTER DR, 2004, FORESTS TIME ENV CON GEERTZ C, 1973, INTERPRETATION CULTU GEIST HJ, 2002, BIOSCIENCE, V52, P143 GEIST HJ, 2004, BIOSCIENCE, V54, P817 GEORGE AL, 2005, CASE STUDIES THEORY GUNDERSON LH, 2002, PANARCHY UNDERSTANDI, V1, P1 HAAS PM, 1993, I EARTH SOURCES EFFE HABERL H, 2004, LAND USE POLICY, V21, P199 HELLSTROM E, 1998, FOREST SCI, V44, P254 HOLLING CS, 1978, ADAPTIVE ENV ASSESSM HOLLING CS, 2001, ECOSYSTEMS, V4, P390 HOLLING CS, 2002, ECOSYSTEMS, V5, P319 HOMEWOOD K, 2001, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V98, P12544 HOSHINO S, 2001, LAND USE POLICY, V18, P75 JANSSEN MA, 2002, COMPLEXITY ECOSYSTEM JANSSEN MA, 2006, ECOL SOC, V11, P15 KARLSSON S, 2000, MULTILAYERED GOVERNA KASPERSON JX, 1995, REGIONS RISK, V1, P1 KEYS E, 2005, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V15, P320 KING G, 1994, DESIGNING SOCIAL INQ KOHLER TA, 2000, DYNAMICS HUMAN PRIMA KRAUSMANN F, 2002, ECOL ECON, V41, P177 LAMBIN EF, 2003, ANNU REV ENV RESOUR, V28, P205 LUTERBACHER U, 2001, INT RELATIONS GLOBAL MILES EL, 2002, ENV REGIME EFFECTIVE MITCHELL R, 1999, EFFECTIVENESS INT EN, P33 MITCHELL RB, 1998, J ENV DEV, V7, P4 MORAN EF, 2005, SEEING FOREST TREES MUNTON D, 1999, EFFECTIVENESS INT EN, P325 MYINT T, 2003, INDIANA J GLOBAL LEG, V10, P287 ONEILL RV, 1988, SCALES GLOBAL CHANGE, P29 ORESKES N, 1994, SCIENCE, V263, P641 OVERMARS KP, 2003, ECOL MODEL, V164, P257 PAHLWOSTL C, IN PRESS ENV MODELLI, V21 PAHLWOSTL C, 2002, AQUAT SCI, V64, P394 PAHLWOSTL C, 2004, J COMMUNITY APPL SOC, V14, P193 PARKER DC, 2003, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V93, P314 PETERSON GD, 2000, ECOL ECON, V35, P323 PETERSON GD, 2003, CONSERV BIOL, V17, P358 PFAFF ASP, 1999, J ENVIRON ECON MANAG, V37, P26 POLSKY C, 2001, AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON, V85, P133 POLSKY C, 2004, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V94, P549 PONTIUS RG, 2002, PHOTOGRAMM ENG REM S, V68, P1041 RAGIN CC, 1987, COMP METHOD QUALITAT RAGIN CC, 2000, FUZZY SET SOCIAL SCI RAMAKRISHNAN PS, 1998, CONSERVIGN SACRED BI RAMAKRISHNAN PS, 2003, METHODOLOGICAL ISSUE REPETTO R, 2001, MAR POLICY, V25, P251 RINDFUSS RR, 2004, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V101, P13976 ROE E, 1998, TAKING COMPLEXITY SE RUDEL TK, 2005, TROPICAL FORESTS REG SABATIE RPA, 1999, THEORIES POLICY PROC SCHROTER D, 2005, MITIGATION ADAPTATIO, V10, P573 SCOONES I, 1999, ANNU REV ANTHROPOL, V28, P479 SNIJDERS TAB, 1999, MULTILEVEL ANAL INTR STOKKE OS, 2004, REGIME CONSEQUENCES TETLOCK P, 1996, COUNTERFACTUAL THOUG TURNER BL, 1993, POPULATION GROWTH AG TURNER BL, 2003, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V100, P8074 TURNER BL, 2004, INTEGRATED LAND CHAN UNDERDAL A, 2004, REGIME CONSEQUENCES VANDERHEIJDEN K, 1996, SCENARIOS ART STRATE VANDERLEEUW SE, 2004, CYBERNET SYST, V35, P117 VERBURG PH, 2000, ECOSYSTEMS, V3, P369 VERBURG PH, 2004, GEOJOURNAL, V61, P309 VERBURG PH, 2004, GEOPH MONOG SERIES, V153, P217 VICTOR DG, 1998, IMPLEMENTATION EFFEC WALKER BH, 2002, CONSERV ECOL, V6, P1 WALTERS CJ, 1986, ADAPTIVE MANAGEMENT WALTNERTOEWS D, 2003, ECOSYSTEM SUSTAINABI YOUN GOR, 2002, MILLENNIAL REFLECTIO, P176 YOUN GOR, 2006, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V16, P304 YOUNG OR, 1999, EFFECTIVENESS INT EN YOUNG OR, 1999, GOVERNANCE WORLD AFF NR 99 TC 1 J9 ECOL SOC BP 31 PY 2006 PD DEC VL 11 IS 2 GA 123FD UT ISI:000243280800038 ER PT J AU Laidler, GJ TI Inuit and scientific perspectives on the relationship between sea ice and climate change: The ideal complement? SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Review C1 Univ Toronto, Dept Geog, Mississauga, ON L5L 1C6, Canada. RP Laidler, GJ, Univ Toronto, Dept Geog, 3359 Mississauga Rd N, Mississauga, ON L5L 1C6, Canada. AB Sea ice is influential in regulating energy exchanges between the ocean and the atmosphere, and has figured prominently in scientific studies of climate change and climate feedbacks. However, sea ice is also a vital component of everyday life in Inuit communities of the circumpolar Arctic. Therefore, it is important to understand the links between the potential impacts of climate change on Arctic sea ice extent, distribution, and thickness as well as the related consequences for northern coastal populations. This paper explores the relationship between sea ice and climate change from both scientific and Inuit perspectives. Based on an overview of diverse literature the experiences, methods, and goals which differentiate local and scientific sea ice knowledge are examined. These efforts are considered essential background upon which to develop more accurate assessments of community vulnerability to climate, and resulting sea ice, change. Inuit and scientific perspectives may indeed be the ideal complement when investigating the links between sea ice and climate change, but effective and appropriate conceptual bridges need to be built between the two types of expertise. The complementary nature of these knowledge systems may only be realized, in a practical sense, if significant effort is expended to: (i) understand sea ice from both Inuit and scientific perspectives, along with their underlying differences; (ii) investigate common interests or concerns; (iii) establish meaningful and reciprocal research partnerships with Inuit communities; (iv) engage in, and improve, collaborative research methods; and, (v) maintain ongoing dialogue. 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RP Kamga, FM, Univ Yaounde 1, Fac Sci, Dept Phys, Atmospher Sci Lab, POB 812, Yaounde, Cameroon. AB The ever-increasing concentration of greenhouse gases in the earth's atmosphere is projected to cause important changes in climate patterns. In the Sahelian part of Cameroon. changes in temperature and rainfall would have an important impact on the availability of water resources. To evaluate vulnerability, future runoff over the economically important Upper Benue River is simulated using a hydrological water balance model. Two climate change experiments (HadCM2 and ECHAM4/OPYC3) provide the necessary input variables to the model, under various scenarios of IPCC, the Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change. By 2100, depending on climate sensitivity, scenarios and climate models. rainfall is expected to increase in the range of 4-13% and temperature from 1 to 3 degreesC. These lead to changes of 4-11 % in annual potential evapotranspiration. Under the same conditions, changes in annual river flow range from -3 to +18%, i.e, -7 to +45 mm. The 45 min maximum expected annual increase falls within the current variability of the river discharge, characterised by a standard deviation of 76 mm. Future development planning in the valley must take into account these impacts and their effects, both positive and negative. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. CR CASENAVE A, 1978, CAH ORSTOM H, V15, P3 CULLEN MJP, 1993, METEOROL MAG, V122, P81 HOUGHTON JT, 1996, CLIM CHANG 1995 SCI HULME M, 1995, ENERG POLICY, V23, P347 HULME M, 2000, USING CLIMATE SCENAR KAMGA FM, 2000, THEOR APPL CLIMATOL, V67, P97 KATZ RW, 1992, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V21, P289 MITCHELL JFB, 1995, NATURE, V376, P501 MONTHE J, 1998, EVALUATION IMPACTS C OLIVRY JC, 1986, FLEUVES RIVIERES CAM PENMAN HL, 1948, P ROY SOC LOND A MAT, V193, P120 ROECKNER E, 1996, 218 M PLANCK I MET TURC L, 1954, ANN AGRON, V5, P491 YATES D, 1996, WATER RESOUR DEV, V12, P121 NR 14 TC 2 J9 J HYDROL BP 145 EP 156 PY 2001 PD OCT 31 VL 252 IS 1-4 GA 469VQ UT ISI:000170837100010 ER PT J AU Rahman, AU Kadi, MA Rockstrom, J TI Workshop 7 (synthesis): trade-offs in water for food and environmental security - urban/agricultural trade-off SO WATER SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY LA English DT Article C1 Conseil Gen Dev Agricole, Rabat Inst, Rabat, Morocco. IHE Delft, NL-2601 DA Delft, Netherlands. RP Rahman, AU, 40733 Laguna Pl, Fremont, CA 94539 USA. AB Severe stresses are being generated by increasing demand for competing water uses, above all between agriculture and urban needs. Amongst potential solutions considered, two dominated the workshop: virtual water and water reuse. Virtual water implies indirect water use: water-poor countries importing food rather than attempting self-sufficiency and thereby keeping their real water resources for economically more beneficial uses. There are serious political and economic risks associated; one proposed solution is an international virtual water trading council. Improved forms of water reuse, particularly use of treated urban wastewater for irrigation, can maximise the use made of limited supply. NR 0 TC 1 J9 WATER SCI TECHNOL BP 191 EP 193 PY 2002 VL 45 IS 8 GA 552DL UT ISI:000175603500030 ER PT J AU CLARK, WC TI SCALES OF CLIMATE IMPACTS SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Article RP CLARK, WC, INT INST APPL SYST ANAL,A-2361 LAXENBURG,AUSTRIA. 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Delft Hydraul, NL-2600 MH Delft, Netherlands. RP Nicholls, RJ, Middlesex Univ, Flood Hazard Res Ctr, Enfield EN3 4SF, Middx, England. AB To develop improved estimates of (1) flooding due to storm surges, and (2) wetland losses due to accelerated sea-level rise, the work of Hoozemans et al. (1993) is extended to a dynamic analysis. It considers the effects of several simultaneously changing factors, including: (1) global sea-level rise and subsidence; (2) increasing coastal population; and (3) improving standards of flood defence (using GNP/capita as an "ability-to-pay" parameter). The global sea-level rise scenarios are derived from two General Circulation Model (GCM) experiments of the Hadley Centre: (1) the HadCM2 greenhouse gas only ensemble experiment and (2) the more recent HadCM3 greenhouse gas only experiment. In all cases there is a global rise in sea level of about 38 cm from 1990 to the 2080s. No other climate change is considered. Relative to an evolving reference scenario without sea-level rise, this analysis suggests that the number of people hooded by storm surge in a typical year will be more than five times higher due to sea-level rise by the 2080s. Many of these people will experience annual or more frequent flooding, suggesting that the increase in flood frequency will be more than nuisance level and some response (increased protection, migration, etc.) will be required. In absolute terms, the areas most vulnerable to flooding are the southern Mediterranean, Africa, and most particularly, South and South-east Asia where there is a concentration of low-lying populated deltas. However, the Caribbean, the Indian Ocean islands and the Pacific Ocean small islands may experience the largest relative increase in flood risk. By the 2080s, sea-level rise could cause the loss of up to 22% of the world's coastal wetlands. When combined with other losses due to direct human action, up to 70% of the world's coastal wetlands could be lost by the 2080s, although then is considerable uncertainty. Therefore, sea-level rise would reinforce other adverse trends of wetland loss. The largest losses due to sea-level rise will be around the Mediterranean and Baltic and to a lesser extent on the Atlantic coast of Central and North America and the smaller islands of the Caribbean. Collectively, these results show that a relatively small global rise in sea level could have significant adverse impacts if there is no adaptive response. Given the "commitment to sea-level rise" irrespective of any realistic future emissions policy, there is a need to start strategic planning of appropriate responses now. Given that coastal flooding and wetland loss are already important problems, such planning could have immediate benefits. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. 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RP Farbotko, C, Univ Tasmania, Sch Geog & Environm Studies, Private Bag 78, Hobart, Tas 7001, Australia. AB Tuvalu, a place whose image in the 'West' is as a small island state, insignificant and remote on the world stage, is becoming remarkably prominent in connection with the contemporary issue of climate change-related sea-level rise. My aim in this paper is to advance understanding of the linkages between climate change and island places, by exploring the discursive negotiation of the identity of geographically distant islands and island peoples in the Australian news media. Specifically, I use discourse analytic methods to critically explore how, and to what effects, various representations of the Tuvaluan islands and people in an Australian broadsheet, the Sydney Morning Herald, emphasize difference between Australia and Tuvalu. My hypothesis is that implicating climate change in the identity of people and place can constitute Tuvaluans as 'tragic victims' of environmental displacement, marginalizing discourses of adaptation for Tuvaluans and other inhabitants of low-lying islands, and silencing alternative constructions of Tuvaluan identity that could emphasize resilience and resourcefulness. By drawing attention to the problematic ways that island identities are constituted in climate change discourse in the news media, I advocate a more critical approach to the production and consumption of representations of climate change. 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Agrifood Res Finland, Jokioinen 31600, Finland. RP Ouyang, ZY, Chinese Acad Sci, Ecoenvironm Sci Res Ctr, Beijing 100085, Peoples R China. AB Limited water resources, increasing demand, low use efficiency, and serious pollution result in severe water resource difficult in China. The evaluation of addressing water problems and the search for effective countermeasures that ensure sustainable water use are key to China's sustainable development. The "compound water security" consists of food security, life, security, environmental security, and economic security. By establishing a conceptual model, the water security of China has been simulated in-terms of four scenarios called BAU(the business-as-usual scenario), TEC(the technology and economics scenario), IVL(the institution, values, and lifestyles scenario) and TSD(toward sustainable development) in this paper. The results indicated that water crises, especially water shortages, are being experienced now and will continue to do so for a relatively long time in China and that it is possible to reach a basic balance between supply and demand of water and grain under the TSD developing pattern by a series of approaches including technological innovation, policy adjustments, and behaviour inducement. CR *ESCAP, 1997, CHIN WAT RES THEIR U *MWR, 2002, CHIN WAT RES B 2001 *NBSC, 2001, CHIN STAT YB 2000 *NBSC, 2002, CHIN STAT YB 2001 *SEIB TI, 1997, WEAP US GUID VERS 97 *SEPA, 2002, CHIN ENV YB 2001 *WORLD BANK, 1997, CLEAR WAT BLUE SKIES ALCAMO J, 2000, ANAL 3 WATER SCENARI BROWN K, 2002, SCIENCE, V297, P926 BROWN LR, 1995, WHO WILL FEED CHINA COSGROVE WJ, 1998, WATER POLICY, V1, P115 FALKENMARK M, 1974, AMBIO, V3, P114 GALLOPIN G, 1999, 3 GLOBAL WATER SCENA GALLOPIN G, 2000, WORLD WATER SCENARIO, P62 GLEICK PH, 1996, WATER INT, V21, P83 GLEICK PH, 2000, WORLD WATER SCENARIO, P27 HASHIMOTO R, 2002, INT REV ENV STRATEGI, V3, P222 JIN L, 2001, WATER POLICY, V3, P215 JOHNSON N, 2001, SCIENCE, V292, P1071 LIU X, 2000, ACTA PHARMACOL SIN, V21, P19 LUBCHENCO J, 1998, SCIENCE, V279, P491 LUIJTEN JC, 2001, AGR SYST, V70, P603 RIJSBERMAN FR, 2000, WORLD WATER SCENARIO, P76 STRZEPEK KM, 2000, WORLD WATER SCENARIO, P46 VOROSMARTY CJ, 2000, SCIENCE, V289, P284 WANG RS, 1996, CHINESE SCI BULL, V41, P47 NR 26 TC 0 J9 J ENVIRON SCI-CHINA BP 765 EP 769 PY 2004 VL 16 IS 5 GA 851LY UT ISI:000223687800013 ER PT J AU HAQUE, CE BLAIR, D TI VULNERABILITY TO TROPICAL CYCLONES - EVIDENCE FROM THE APRIL 1991 CYCLONE IN COASTAL BANGLADESH SO DISASTERS LA English DT Article C1 UNIV WINNIPEG,DEPT GEOG,WINNIPEG R3B 2E9,MANITOBA,CANADA. RP HAQUE, CE, BRANDON UNIV,DEPT GEOG,BRANDON R7A 6A9,MANITOBA,CANADA. AB In this article we report the results of a survey conducted in two coastal communities of Bangladesh less than two weeks after they were hit by the severe cyclone of April 29, 1991. It was found that almost all of the surveyed heads of households had received early warnings of the cyclone. Nevertheless, a majority of the respondents did not leave their homes to seek shelter. The two most common reasons given for this passive reaction were (i) fear of burglary and (ii) disbelief of the warnings. Thus, it appears that the existing system of early warnings is not having its intended effect and that it, and related disaster mitigation policies, need to be revised. Some suggestions are made as to what could be done. CR 1991, WEEKLY CLIMATE B, V91 ALI A, 1980, MAUSAM, V31, P517 ANTHES RA, 1982, MONO AM MET SOC, V41 CHOWDHURY M, 1988, DISASTERS, V12, P294 CROSSETTE B, 1991, NY TIMES 0505 DAS PK, 1974, Q J ROY METEOR SOC, V100, P437 DUBE SK, 1982, MAUSAM, V33, P445 EMANUEL KA, 1988, AM SCI, V76, P371 FRANK NL, 1971, B AM METEOROLOGICAL, V52, P438 HAQUE CE, 1988, HUM ECOL, V16, P421 HASTENRATH S, 1979, CLIMATIC ATLAS IND 1 ISLAM MA, 1989, MAY INT C BANGL FLOO ISLAM N, 1976, SQUATTERS BANGLADESH JOHNS B, 1983, COMPUT FLUIDS, V11, P161 MISHRA DK, 1982, DISASTERS, V6, P250 MOOLEY DA, 1980, MON WEATHER REV, V108, P1647 MURTY TS, 1984, BULL, V212 MURTY TS, 1986, PROG OCEANOGR, V16, P195 MURTY TS, 1988, NAT HAZARDS, V1, P303 RAGHAVENDRA VK, 1973, INDIAN J METEOROL GE, V24, P125 RAO KN, 1981, CLIMATES SO W ASIA W, V9, P257 RIEHL H, 1979, CLIMATE WEATHER TROP ROGERS P, 1989, E WATER STUDY STRATE SEVENHUYSEN GP, 1991, REPORT CYCLONE DISAS SHAH BV, 1983, DISASTERS, V7, P202 WHITE AU, 1974, NATURAL HAZARDS LOCA, P255 NR 26 TC 6 J9 DISASTERS BP 217 EP 229 PY 1992 PD SEP VL 16 IS 3 GA JN728 UT ISI:A1992JN72800003 ER PT J AU Easterling, WE Apps, M TI Assessing the consequences of climate change for food and forest resources: A view from the IPCC SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 Penn State Univ, Dept Geog, University Pk, PA 16802 USA. Pacific Forestry Ctr, Canadian Forest Serv, Nat Resources Canada, Victoria, BC, Canada. RP Easterling, W, Penn State Univ, Dept Geog, University Pk, PA 16802 USA. AB Important findings on the consequences of climate change for agriculture and forestry from the recently completed Third Assessment Report (TAR) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) are reviewed, with emphasis on new knowledge that emerged since the Second Assessment Report (SAR). The State-Pressure-Response-Adaptation model is used to organize the review. The major findings are: Constant or declining food prices are expected for at least the next 25 yr, although food security problems will persist in many developing countries as those countries deal with population increases, political crisis, poor resource endowments, and steady environmental degradation. Most economic model projections suggest that low relative food prices will extend beyond the next 25 yr, although our confidence in these projections erodes farther out into the 21st century. Although deforestation rates may have decreased since the early 1990s, degradation with a loss of forest productivity and biomass has occurred at large spatial scales as a result of fragmentation, non-sustainable practices and infrastructure development. According to United Nations estimates, approximately 23% of all forest and agricultural lands were classified as degraded over the period since World War II. At a worldwide scale, global change pressures (climate change, land-use practices and changes in atmospheric chemistry) are increasingly affecting the supply of goods and services from forests. The most realistic experiments to date - free air experiments in an irrigated environment - indicate that C-3 agricultural crops in particular respond favorably to gradually increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations (e.g., wheat yield increases by an average of 28%), although extrapolation of experimental results to real world production where several factors (e.g., nutrients, temperature, precipitation, and others) are likely to be limiting at one time or another remains problematic. Moreover, little is known of crop response to elevated CO2 in the tropics, as most of the research has been conducted in the mid-latitudes. Research suggests that for some crops, for example rice, CO2 benefits may decline quickly as temperatures warm beyond optimum photosynthetic levels. However, crop plant growth may benefit relatively more from CO2 enrichment in drought conditions than in wet conditions. The unambiguous separation of the relative influences of elevated ambient CO2 levels, climate change responses, and direct human influences (such as present and historical land-use change) on trees at the global and regional scales is still problematic. In some regions such as the temperate and boreal forests, climate change impacts, direct human interventions (including nitrogen-bearing pollution), and the legacy of past human activities (land-use change) appear to be more significant than CO2 fertilization effects. This subject is, however an area of continuing scientific debate, although there does appear to be consensus that any CO2 fertilization effect will saturate (disappear) in the coming century. Modeling studies suggest that any warming above current temperatures will diminish crop yields in the tropics while up to 2-3 degrees C of warming in the mid-latitudes may be tolerated by crops, especially if accompanied by increasing precipitation. The preponderance of developing countries lies in or near the tropics; this finding does not bode well for food production in those countries. Where direct human pressures do not mask them, there is increasing evidence of the impacts of climate change on forests associated with changes in natural disturbance regimes, growing season length, and local climatic extremes. Recent advances in modeling of vegetation response suggest that transient effects associated with dynamically responding ecosystems to climate change will increasingly dominate over the next century and that during these changes the global forest resource is likely to be adversely affected. The ability of livestock producers to adapt their herds to the physiological stress of climate change appears encouraging due to a variety of techniques for dealing with climate stress, but this issue is not well constrained, in part because of the general lack of experimentation and simulations of livestock adaptation to climate change. Crop and livestock farmers who have sufficient access to capital and technologies should be able to adapt their farming systems to climate change. Substantial changes in their mix of crops and livestock production may be necessary, however, as considerable costs could be involved in this process because investments in learning and gaining experience with different crops or irrigation. Impacts of climate change on agriculture after adaptation are estimated to result in small percentage changes in overall global income. Nations with large resource endowments (i.e., developed countries) will fare better in adapting to climate change than those with poor resource endowments (i.e., developing countries and countries in transition, especially in the tropics and subtropics) which will fare worse. This, in turn, could worsen income disparities between developed and developing countries. Although local forest ecosystems will be highly affected, with potentially significant local economic impacts, it is believed that, at regional and global scales, the global supply of timber and non-wood goods and services will adapt through changes in the global market place. However, there will be regional shifts in market share associated with changes in forest productivity with climate change: in contrast to the findings of the SAR, recent studies suggest that the changes will favor producers in developing countries, possibly at the expense of temperate and boreal suppliers. Global agricultural vulnerability is assessed by the anticipated effects of climate change on food prices. Based on the accumulated evidence of modeling studies, a global temperature rise of greater than 2.5 degrees C is likely to reverse the trend of falling real food prices. This would greatly stress food security in many developing countries. 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Univ Colorado, Inst Behav Sci, Nat Hazards Ctr, Boulder, CO USA. RP Tierney, K, Univ Colorado, Dept Sociol, Boulder, CO 80309 USA. CR ANDERTON DL, 1994, DEMOGRAPHY, V31, P229 BEEN V, 1994, YALE LAW J, V103, P1383 BLAIKIE PM, 1994, RISK NATURAL HAZARDS, V1, P1 BOLIN R, 1998, NORTHRIDGE EARTHQUA BULLARD RD, 2000, DUMPING DIXIE RACE C CUTTER SL, 2000, AM HAZARDSCAPES REGI CUTTER SL, 2005, SOC SCI RES COUNC FO DOWNEY L, 2005, SOC FORCES, V83, P971 HEWITT K, 1983, INTERPRETATIONS CALA KLINENBERG E, 2002, HEAT WAVE SOCIAL AUT MITCHELL JT, 1999, SOC SCI QUART, V80, P229 PEACOCK WG, 1997, HURRICANE ANDREW ETH SEN AK, 1981, POVERTY FAMINES ESSA, V1, P1 NR 13 TC 0 J9 CONTEMP SOCIOL BP 207 EP 212 PY 2006 PD MAY VL 35 IS 3 GA 044QY UT ISI:000237688600002 ER PT J AU Canadell, JG Ciais, P Cox, P Heimann, M TI Quantifying, understanding and managing the carbon cycle in the next decades SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 CSIRO, Div Atmospher Res, Global Carbon Project, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia. Ctr Etud Orme Merisiers, Lab Sci Climat & Environm, F-91191 Gif Sur Yvette, France. Hadley Ctr Climate Predict & Res, Met Off, Exeter EX10 9SQ, Devon, England. Max Planck Inst Biogeochem, D-07701 Jena, Germany. RP Canadell, JG, CSIRO, Div Atmospher Res, Global Carbon Project, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia. AB The human perturbation of the carbon cycle via the release of fossil CO2 and land use change is now well documented and agreed to be the principal cause of climate change. We address three fundamental research areas that require major development if we were to provide policy relevant knowledge for managing the carbon-climate system over the next few decades. The three research areas are: (i) carbon observations and multiple constraint data assimilation; (ii) vulnerability of the carbon-climate system; and (iii) carbon sequestration and sustainable development. 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RP Arthurton, RS, British Geol Survey, Keyworth NG12 5GG, Notts, England. AB The fast-growing, coastal megacities of the Asia-Pacific region are expanding into areas that are vulnerable to marine-related physical natural hazards, or, because of physical environmental changes, will become increasingly vulnerable within the timescale of city planning. The hazards comprise those that are due to extreme events such as storm surge and tsunami which may be catastrophic in their impacts; and those that relate to continuing changes over the long-term, notably global sea-lever rise, sedimentary consolidation and coastal erosion. The latter may be exacerbated by human activities such as the increasing production of 'greenhouse' gases and over-abstraction of groundwater, and, while not threatening catastrophic loss of life or destruction of property, do have important economic and social implications for the future. There are two complementary approaches to hazard mitigation - constraining the hazard, and reducing vulnerability to the hazard. The contributions that science can make in the planning and implementation of sustainable adaptive measures are to improve the quantification of the incidence and severity of the various hazards, establishing realistic timescales of incidence, estimating return periods; and to establish the geographical limits of vulnerability to the hazards in a range of likely scenarios over timescales appropriate to the planning cycle. Contemporary, high risk, hazard scenarios for existing city developments demand an approach which focuses on effective warning networks and emergency planning; long-term, incremental hazards that are forecast to affect both developed and periurban areas can be addressed with a strategic planning approach, involving relocation and capital protective works. The selection of strategic measures demands the best possible predictive information on hazards and on vulnerability, including its full socio-economic evaluation so that the costs and benefits of the possible mitigation options can be realistically assessed. A predictive capacity, developed through modelling, requires the collection of reliable baseline and monitoring data relating to the hazards over a range of timescales in local, regional and global perspectives. (C) 1998 Natural Environment Research Council. Elsevier Science Ltd. 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Univ Calif Santa Barbara, Bren Sch Environm Sci & Management, Santa Barbara, CA 93106 USA. RP Beighley, RE, Univ Calif Santa Barbara, Inst Marine Sci, Santa Barbara, CA 93106 USA. AB To investigate the impacts of urbanization and climatic fluctuations on stream flow magnitude and variability in a Mediterranean climate, the HEC-HMS rainfall/runoff model is used to simulate streamflow for a 14-year period (October 1, 1988, to September 30, 2002) in the Atascadero Creek watershed located along the southern coast of California for 1929, 1998, and 2050 (estimated) land use conditions (8, 38 and 52 percent urban, respectively). The 14-year period experienced a range of climatic conditions caused mainly by El Nino-Southern Oscillation variations. A geographic information system is used to delineate the watershed and parameterize the model, which is calibrated using data from two streamflow and eight rainfall gauges. Urbanization is shown to increase peak discharges and runoff volume while decreasing streamflow variability. In all cases, the annual and 14-year distributions of streamflow are shown to be highly skewed, with the annual maximum 24 hours of discharge accounting for 22 to 52 percent of the annual runoff and the maximum ten days of discharge from an average El Nino year producing 10 to 15 percent of the total 14-year discharge. For the entire period of urbanization (1929 to 2050), the average increase in annual maximum discharges and runoff was 45 m(3)/s (300 percent) and 15 cm (350 percent), respectively. Additionally, the projected increase in urbanization from 1998 to 2050 is half the increase from 1929 to 1998; however, increases in runoff (22 m(3)/s and 7 cm) are similar for both scenarios because of the region's spatial development pattern. CR *CADOF, 2001, INT COUNT POP PROJ S *NOAA, 2001, WR267 NWS NOAA US DE *NRCS, 1986, URB HYDR SMALL WAT *NRCS, 1995, USDA MISC PUBL, V1527 *SBCPD, 2000, SANT BARB COUNT 2030 *USACE, 2000, HEC HMS TECHN REF MA *USGS, 1999, 10699 USGS ANDERSON JR, 1976, 964 US GEOL SURV BARNES HH, 1967, 1849 US GEOL SURV BEIGHLEY RE, 2002, J HYDROL ENG, V7, P27 CANDAU J, 2002, THESIS U CALIFORNIA CHOW VT, 1959, OPEN CHANNEL HYDRAUL CLARKE KC, 1997, ENVIRON PLANN B, V24, P247 DALY C, 1994, J APPL METEOROL, V33, P140 FIELD CB, 1999, CONFRONTING CLIMATE JENSON SK, 1988, PHOTOGRAMM ENG REMOT, V54, P1593 KIM J, 2002, J CLIMATE, V14, P1926 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 MOGLEN GE, 2000, ASCE J HYDROLOGIC EN, V5, P190 MONTEVERDI J, 1997, 9737 NAT OC ATM ADM OCALLAGHAN JF, 1984, COMPUT VISION GRAPH, V28, P323 OLIVERA F, 2001, J HYDROL ENG, V6, P524 PINOL J, 1997, HYDROL PROCESS, V11, P1287 RAWLS WJ, 1983, J HYDRAUL ENG-ASCE, V109, P62 RIBOLZI O, 2000, J HYDROL, V233, P242 SMITH CA, 2000, INT J CLIMATOL, V20, P1543 TARBOTON DG, 1991, HYDROL PROCESS, V5, P81 VIESSMAN W, 1977, INTRO HYDROLOGY NR 28 TC 0 J9 J AM WATER RESOUR ASSOC BP 1419 EP 1433 PY 2003 PD DEC VL 39 IS 6 GA 765BL UT ISI:000188247200008 ER PT J AU Henry, B Mitchell, C Cowie, A Woldring, O Carter, J TI A regional interpretation of rules and good practice for greenhouse accounting: northern Australian savanna systems SO AUSTRALIAN JOURNAL OF BOTANY LA English DT Article C1 Cooperat Res Ctr Greenhouse Accounting, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia. Queensland Dept Nat Resources & Mines, Indooroopilly, Qld 4068, Australia. New S Wales Dept Primary Ind, Beecroft, NSW 2119, Australia. New S Wales Greenhouse Off, Sydney, NSW 2001, Australia. RP Henry, B, Cooperat Res Ctr Greenhouse Accounting, GPO Box 475, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia. AB Land-use change, particularly clearing of forests for agriculture, has contributed significantly to the observed rise in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration. Concern about the impacts on climate has led to efforts to monitor and curtail the rapid increase in concentrations of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Internationally, much of the current focus is on the Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Although electing to not ratify the Protocol, Australia, as a party to the UNFCCC, reports on national greenhouse gas emissions, trends in emissions and abatement measures. In this paper we review the complex accounting rules for human activities affecting greenhouse gas fluxes in the terrestrial biosphere and explore implications and potential opportunities for managing carbon in the savanna ecosystems of northern Australia. Savannas in Australia are managed for grazing as well as for cultural and environmental values against a background of extreme climate variability and disturbance, notably. re. Methane from livestock and non-CO2 emissions from burning are important components of the total greenhouse gas emissions associated with management of savannas. International developments in carbon accounting for the terrestrial biosphere bring a requirement for better attribution of change in carbon stocks and more detailed and spatially explicit data on such characteristics of savanna ecosystems as. re regimes, production and type of fuel for burning, drivers of woody encroachment, rates of woody regrowth, stocking rates and grazing impacts. The benefits of improved biophysical information and of understanding the impacts on ecosystem function of natural factors and management options will extend beyond greenhouse accounting to better land management for multiple objectives. CR *AGO, 2002, AUSTR 3 NAT COMM CLI *AGO, 2003, GREENH GAS EM LAND U *AGO, 2004, TRACK KYOT TARG *AGO, 2005, NAT GREENH INV 2003 *IPCC, 2000, GOOD PRACT GUID UNC *IPCC, 2003, GOOD PRACT GUID LAND *NSW GOV, 2003, GREENH GAS BENCHM RU *WBCSD WRI, 2004, GHG PROT CORP ACC RE *WBGU GERM ADV COU, 2003, CLIM PROT STRAT 21 C ARCHER S, 2001, GLOBAL BIOGEOCHEMICA, P115 ASH AJ, 1995, RANGELANDS SUSTAINAB, P19 BELL W, 2005, CLIMATE CHANGE INT C BELLAMY PH, 2005, NATURE, V437, P245 BERRY SL, 2002, AUST J BOT, V50, P511 BRISTOW M, 2004, 04025 RIRDC JOINT VE BURROWS WH, 2002, GLOBAL CHANGE BIOL, V8, P769 CARTER JO, 2000, APPL SEASONAL CLIMAT, P329 COOK GD, 2002, J VEG SCI, V13, P413 COOK GD, 2005, AUST J BOT, V53, P621 COX PM, 2000, NATURE, V408, P184 DAY KJ, 1977, TECHNICAL B DEP NO T, V22 FARQUHAR GD, 2003, SCIENCE, V299, P1997 FENSHAM RJ, 1999, J APPL ECOL, V36, P1035 FENSHAM RJ, 2003, J ENVIRON MANAGE, V68, P409 FENSHAM RJ, 2005, AUST J BOT, V53, P631 FISHER R, 2003, INT J WILDLAND FIRE, V12, P369 GRAETZ RD, 2003, 64 CSIRO GRUBER N, 2004, SCOPE SER, V62, P45 GUSTAVSSON L, 2000, ENERG POLICY, V28, P935 HENRY BK, 2002, RANGELAND J, V24, P112 HOUGHTON JT, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995 HOUGHTON JT, 1997, REVISED 1996 GUIDELI HOUGHTON RA, 1999, TELLUS B, V51, P298 HOUSE JI, 2002, GLOBAL CHANGE BIOL, V8, P1047 HUTLEY LB, 2005, AUST J BOT, V53, P663 KIRSCHBAUM MUF, 2001, ENV SCI POLICY, V4, P73 KIRSCHBAUM MUF, 2004, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V67, P417 KORONTZI S, 2003, J ARID ENVIRON, V54, P395 MARSHALL GJ, 2004, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V31 MATTHEWS HD, 2004, CLIM DYNAM, V22, P461 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 MCKEON GM, 2004, PASTURE DEGRADATION NOBLE IR, 2001, CLIM POLICY, V1, P5 PITMAN AJ, 2004, J GEOPHYS RES-ATMOS, V109 RICKERT KG, 2000, FIELD LAB METHODS GR, P29 RODERICK ML, 2001, OECOLOGIA, V129, P21 RUSSELLSMITH J, 2003, INT J WILDLAND FIRE, V12, P283 RUSSELLSMITH J, 2003, J GEOPHYS RES D, V108 RUSSELLSMITH J, 2004, J BIOGEOGR, V31, P1305 SABINE CL, 2004, SCOPE SER, V62, P17 SCHOLES RJ, 1996, ENV PROFESSIONAL, V18, P96 SCURLOCK JMO, 1998, GLOB CHANGE BIOL, V4, P229 SHARP BR, 2003, J BIOGEOGR, V30, P783 STOKES C, 2005, AUST J BOT, V53, P677 SYKTUS J, 2004, SPARC 2004 1 6 AUG 2 VANAUKEN OW, 2000, ANNU REV ECOL SYST, V31, P197 VIGILANTE T, 2004, J BIOGEOGR, V31, P1317 WHITE WB, 2003, INT J CLIMATOL, V23, P631 WILLIAMS J, 1985, AGRORESEARCH SEMIARI WILLIAMS RJ, 2002, FLAMMABLE AUSTR FIRE WILLIAMS RJ, 2004, FUNCT PLANT BIOL, V31, P415 YIBARBUK D, 2001, J BIOGEOGR, V28, P325 NR 62 TC 1 J9 AUST J BOT BP 589 EP 605 PY 2005 VL 53 IS 7 GA 988OE UT ISI:000233609700002 ER PT J AU BROWN, N TI CLIMATE-CHANGE AND HUMAN HISTORY - SOME INDICATIONS FROM EUROPE, AD400-1400 SO ENVIRONMENTAL POLLUTION LA English DT Article RP BROWN, N, UNIV OXFORD,ENVIRONM CHANGE UNIT,1A MANSFIELD RD,OXFORD OX1 3TB,ENGLAND. AB The influence of climate change on history is discussed in such a way as to take account of recent research while seeking to herald, rather than foreclose, the much more focussed and definitive debates that will become possible by the turn of the century. By then, much more elaborated time series of global climatic change over the last several millennia should be available. The period chosen for examination is the 1000 years or so following the collapse of Roman Europe. During this time, civilisation seems to wane, wax and wane again, very much in phase with the climate deteriorating, improving and then deteriorating once more. What this overview highlights is the great vulnerability to climatic perturbation of societies that are marginally poised for other reasons. In several major respects, the whole of world society will be marginal in the 21st century. CR ARNOLD T, HALF HOURS STANDARD, P133 ASHE G, 1971, QUEST AM, P271 BARRY GR, 1990, ATMOSPHERE WEATHER C BELL D, 1958, WORLD POLIT, V10, P327 BROOKS CEP, 1926, CLIMATE THROUGH AGES, P340 BUDYKO MI, 1991, ANTHRO CLIMATIC CHAN, CH10 BURKE P, 1990, FRENCH HIST REVOLUTI, P61 CHERNAVSKAYA MM, 1990, CLIMATIC CHANGE HIST, P130 FANG JQ, 1992, INT J CLIMATOL, V12, P499 FICHTENAU H, 1991, LIVING 10TH CENTURY, P338 FOOTE PC, 1980, VIKING ACHEIVEMENT, P260 FROMM E, 1942, ESCAPE FREEDOM, P40 GIBBON E, 1970, DECLINE FALL ROMAN E, V1 GILES HA, 1964, CHINESE BIOGRAPHICAL, P112 GOTTFRIED RS, 1983, BLACK DEATH, P15 GOUDIE A, 1990, HUMAN IMPACT NATURAL, P37 GRACE J, 1989, FORESTS WEATHER CLIM, P233 GREEN VHH, 1955, LATER PLANTAGENETS GROVE JM, 1988, LITTLE ICE AGE, P22 GROVE JM, 1988, LITTLE ICE AGE, P3 GUILLAUME A, 1954, ISLAM HUNTINGTON E, 1907, PULSE ASIA, P287 HUNTINGTON E, 1907, PULSE ASIA, CH17 ISAAR AS, 1992, IMPACT CLIMATE VARIA ISSAR AD, 1992, IMPACT CLIMATE VARIA ISSAR AS, 1992, IMPACT CLIMATE VARIA KIRKBY MH, 1977, VIKINGS, P56 KOLB A, 1971, E ASIA, P47 LADURIE EL, 1971, TIME FEAST TIMES FAM, P88 LAMB HH, 1966, CHANGING CLIMATE, P64 LAMB HH, 1977, CLIMATE PRESENT PAST, V2, CH12 LAMB HH, 1982, CLIMATE HIST MODERN LAMB HH, 1982, CLIMATE HIST MODERN, P118 LAMB HH, 1982, CLIMATE HIST MODERN, P160 LAMB HH, 1987, BEITR PHYS ATMOS, V60, P131 LATOUCHE R, 1981, BIRTH W EC, P189 LUND O, 1985, MEDIEVAL ARCHAEOLOGY, V29, P120 MANGO C, 1980, BYZANTIUM EMPIRE NEW, CH3 MATTHEW D, 1985, ATLAS MEDIEVAL EUROP, P165 MCGOVERN TH, 1981, CLIMATE HIST, P379 MCNEIL W, 1983, PURSUIT POWER, P48 MILNERGAILLARD R, 1989, CULTURAL ATLAS RUSSI, P24 PIRENNE H, 1976, PIRENNE THESIS, P1 PONTING C, 1992, GREEN HIST WORLD, CH7 ROPER HRT, 1969, EUROPEAN WITCH CRAZE SHAW BD, 1981, CLIMATE HIST STUDIES, P379 STAGG FN, 1952, N NORWAY HIST, P61 STAGG FN, 1952, N NORWAY HIST, P75 SZAMUELY T, 1974, RUSSIAN TRADITION, CH2 TUCHMAN B, 1978, DISTANT MIRROR, CH2 WEIL S, 1971, NEED ROOTS, P45 WHITE L, 1976, PIRENNE THESIS, P166 WILKINSON RG, 1973, POVERTY PROGR ECOLOG NR 53 TC 2 J9 ENVIRON POLLUT BP 37 EP 43 PY 1994 VL 83 IS 1-2 GA ML496 UT ISI:A1994ML49600004 ER PT J AU Burton, I TI Vulnerability and adaptive response in the context of climate and climate change SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 ENVIRONM CANADA,ATMOSPHER ENVIRONM SERV,DOWNSVIEW,ON,CANADA. RP Burton, I, UNIV TORONTO,INST ENVIRONM STUDIES,ENVIRONM ADAPTAT RES GRP,TORONTO,ON,CANADA. AB The paper explores the distinction between climate and climate change. Adaptation to current climate variability has been proposed as an additional way to approach adaptation to long-term climate change. In effect improved adaptation to current climate is a step in preparation for longer term climate change. International programs of research and assessment are separately organized to deal with natural disasters and climate change. There is no scientific concensus so far, that extreme events have changed in frequency on a world-wide basis, although some regional changes have occured. It is extremely unlikely that significant shifts in the means of weather distrbutions will take place without shifts in the tails. In some situations it may make more sense to focus on adaptation to extreme events and the tails of distributions. In other circumstances adaptation to the norms is the logical focus. The relationship between normal climate and climate change is examined in terms of single and complex variables and phenomena. It is proposed that the research communities studying adaptation to extreme events and adaptation to climate change work more closely together, perhaps in a newly organized joint research program. CR *US NAT AC SCI ENG, 1992, POL IMPL GREENH WARM, P520 ANDERSON M, 1991, MANAGING NATURAL DIS, P17 BURTON I, 1964, NAT RESOUR J, V3, P412 BURTON I, 1978, ENV HAZARD, V1, P1 BURTON I, 1996, ADAPTING CLIMATE CHA, P55 HERBERT D, 1995, UNPUB ESTIMATED COST KREIMER A, 1991, MANAGING NATURAL DIS, P10 MCCULLOCH J, 1995, P WORKSH IMPR RESP A, P3 SMIT B, 1993, ADAPTATION CLIMATE V, P7 WIGLEY TML, 1985, NATURE, V316, P106 YAZICI DZ, 1995, IMPACT CLIMATE COST NR 11 TC 10 J9 CLIMATIC CHANGE BP 185 EP 196 PY 1997 PD MAY-JUN VL 36 IS 1-2 GA XH635 UT ISI:A1997XH63500013 ER PT J AU Wassmann, R Hien, NX Hoanh, CT Tuong, TP TI Sea level rise affecting the Vietnamese Mekong Delta: Water elevation in the flood season and implications for rice production SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe, Inst Meteorol & Climate Res IMK IFU, D-82467 Garmisch Partenkirchen, Germany. SIWRP, Thanh Pho Ho Chi Minh, Vietnam. IWMI, Colombo, Sri Lanka. Int Rice Res Inst, Los Banos, Philippines. RP Wassmann, R, Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe, Inst Meteorol & Climate Res IMK IFU, Kreuzeckbahnstr 19, D-82467 Garmisch Partenkirchen, Germany. AB In this study, we assessed the impact of sea level rise, one of the most ascertained consequences of global climate change, for water levels in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta (VMD). We used a hydraulic model to compute water levels from August to November-when flooding is presently critical-under sea level rise scenarios of 20 cm (= Delta20) and 45 cm (= Delta45), respectively. The outputs show that the contour lines of water levels will be shifted up to 25 km (Delta20) and 50 km (Delta45) towards the sea due to higher sea levels. At the onset of the flood season ( August), the average increment in water levels in the Delta is 14.1 cm (Delta20) and 32.2 cm (Delta45), respectively. At the peak of the flood season ( October), high discharge from upstream attenuates the increment in water level, but average water level rise of 11.9 cm (Delta20) and 27.4 cm (Delta45), respectively, still imply a substantial aggravation of flooding problems in the VMD. GIS techniques were used to delineate areas with different levels of vulnerability, i.e., area with high (2.3 mio ha = 60% of the VMD), medium (0.6 mio ha = 15%) and low (1 mio ha = 25%) vulnerability due to sea level rise. Rice production will be affected through excessive flooding in the tidally inundated areas and longer flooding periods in the central part of the VMD. These adverse impacts could affect all three cropping seasons, Mua (main rainfed crop), Dong Xuan (Winter-Spring) and He Thu (Summer-Autumn) in the VMD unless preventive measures are taken. CR *ADB, 1994, CLIM CHANG AS VIETN, P103 *DELFT HYDR, 1989, SAFLOW MAN PROGR CAL *ESSA STOTH PEG WA, 1992, WAT CONTR PROJ QUAN *IPCC, 2000, EM SCEN 2000 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 *KOICA KARICO, 2000, FLOOD CONTR PLANN DE, V1 *NEDECO, 1991, 1 NEDECO WORLD BANK, V2 *NEDECO, 1991, 2 NEDECO WORLD BANK *NEDECO, 1992, THEM STUD MAN WAT RE, V4 *NEDECO, 1993, THEM STUD MAN WAT RE, V2 *SOGREAH, 1963, MOD MATH DELT MEK ALI A, 1996, WATER AIR SOIL POLL, V92, P171 DONG TD, 2000, P WORKSH HYDR ENV MO, P236 DUONG LT, 1994, J FAC AGR KYUSHU U, V39, P1 HASHIMOTO TR, 2001, 4 U SYDN AUSTR MEK R HOUGHTON JT, 1990, SCI ASSESSMENT CLIMA KHUE NN, 1986, MODELLING TIDAL PROP KHUE NN, 1991, VIETNAM RIVER SYSTEM MINH HNT, 2002, J FAC AGR KYUSHU U, V47, P221 MOYA TB, 1998, GLOB CHANGE BIOL, V4, P645 NICHOLLS RJ, 1999, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V9, PS69 PEREZ RT, 1996, WATER AIR SOIL POLL, V92, P137 SANH NV, 1998, DEV FARMING SYSTEMS, P17 SMITH JB, 2001, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V50, P1 TOL RSJ, 1998, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V8, P109 TUONG NT, 2001, SEA LEVEL MEASUREMEN VANDIEPEN CA, 1989, SOIL USE MANAGE, V5, P16 WARRICK RA, 1996, IMPLICATIONS CLIMATE WASSMANN R, 2000, NUTR CYCL AGROECOSYS, V58, P13 XUAN VT, 1998, DEV FARMING SYSTEMS ZEIDLER RB, 1997, OCEAN COAST MANAGE, V37, P41 NR 31 TC 0 J9 CLIMATIC CHANGE BP 89 EP 107 PY 2004 PD SEP VL 66 IS 1-2 GA 857PN UT ISI:000224130900008 ER PT J AU Patz, JA Balbus, JM TI Methods for assessing public health vulnerability to global climate change SO CLIMATE RESEARCH LA English DT Article C1 GEORGE WASHINGTON UNIV,SCH MED,DEPT OCCUPAT & ENVIRONM MED,WASHINGTON,DC. RP Patz, JA, JOHNS HOPKINS UNIV,SCH HYG & PUBL HLTH,DEPT MOLEC MICROBIOL & IMMUNOL,615 N WOLFE ST,BALTIMORE,MD 21205. AB Assessment of the human health risk posed by global climate change presents a new challenge to public health professionals. In contrast to conventional toxicological risk assessment, the health risk assessment related to global climate change must analyze stressors that consist of complex interrelated climate factors and risks that are mediated through intermediate species in varying ecosystems. A framework for ecologically based human health risk assessment helps distinguish the concepts of global climate change risk assessment from conventional risk assessment. Specific methods for linking climate variables with human disease include historical analysis of climate and disease data and the development of integrated mathematical models. Two historical climate-disease studies of malaria in Africa provide a starting point for further analysis. Early approaches to evaluating the human health risks from global climate change will include simple mapping of disease boundaries and climate factors. Computer-based geographical information system (GIS) technology will assist in the organization and analysis of climate, environment and disease data. Ultimately, complex integrated mathematical models may provide quantitative estimates of risk, but these models have not yet been validated. The collection of geographically organized relevant data through either field work or remote sensing technology will both help validate comprehensive integrated models and enhance our understanding of the associations between climate change and human health. 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RP Kirkby, J, Northumbria Univ, Div Geog & Environm Management, Lipman Bldg, Newcastle Upon Tyne NE1 8ST, Tyne & Wear, England. AB This paper introduces a series of African and Asian case studies on environment and development. It explores the tension between optimistic and pessimistic interpretations of environmental maintenance and transformation. It critically examines political ecology and eco-populism before analysing underlying models of governance, social justice and human rights. Key concepts in understanding the relationship between environment and development are discussed, including security, sustainable livelihoods, coping and entitlements. The paper ends with a discussion of marginality and vulnerability with particular attention to urban and informal sector environments. Copyright (C) 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 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RP Kepner, WG, US EPA, Off Res & Dev, POB 93478, Las Vegas, NV 89193 USA. AB Vegetation change in the American West has been a subject of concern throughout the twentieth century. Although many of the changes have been recorded qualitatively through the use of comparative photography and historical reports, little quantitative information has been available on the regional or watershed scale. It is currently possible to measure change over large areas and determine trends in ecological and hydrological condition using advanced space-based technologies. Specifically, this process is being tested in a community-based watershed in southeast Arizona and northeast Sonora, Mexico using a system of landscape pattern measurements derived from satellite remote sensing, spatial statistics, process modeling, and geographic information systems technology. These technologies provide the basis for developing landscape composition and pattern indicators as sensitive measures of large-scale environmental change and thus may provide an effective and economical method for evaluating watershed condition related to disturbance from human and natural stresses. The project utilizes the database from the North American Landscape Characterization (NALC) project which incorporates triplicate Landsat Multi-Spectral Scanner (MSS) imagery from the early 1970s, mid 1980s, and the 1990s. Landscape composition and pattern metrics have been generated from digital land cover maps derived from the NALC images and compared across a nearly 20-year period. Results about changes in land cover for the study period indicate that extensive, highly connected grassland and desertscrub areas are the most vulnerable ecosystems to fragmentation and actual loss due to encroachment of xerophytic mesquite woodland. In the study period, grasslands and desertscrub not only decreased in extent but also became more fragmented. That is, the number of grassland and desertscrub patches increased and their average patch sizes decreased. In stark contrast, the mesquite woodland patches increased in size, number, and connectivity. These changes have important impact for the hydrology of the region, since the energy and water balance characteristics for these cover types are significantly different. The process demonstrates a simple procedure to document changes and determine ecosystem vulnerabilities through the use of change detection and indicator development, especially in regard to traditional degradation processes that have occurred throughout the western rangelands involving changes of vegetative cover and acceleration of water and wind erosion. CR *COMM ENV COOP, 1998, ADV PAN REP UPP SAN *COMM ENV COOP, 1999, SUST ENH RIP MIGR BI *SPSS INC, 1998, SYSTAT VERS 8 0 *US BUR LAND MAN, 1998, BLMAZPT98021 US BUR *USEPA, 1993, EPA600S930005 BAHRE CJ, 1991, LEGACY CHANGE HIST H BAHRE CJ, 1993, J BIOGEOGR, V20, P489 BRANDT R, 1951, ARIZONA ITS BIRD LIF BRANSON FA, 1985, RANGE MONOGRAPH SOC, V2 BUFFINGTON LC, 1965, ECOL MONOGR, V35, P139 CONGALTON RG, 1983, PHOTOGRAMM ENG REM S, V49, P69 CONGALTON RG, 1991, REMOTE SENS ENVIRON, V37, P35 CONGALTON RG, 1993, PHOTOGRAMM ENG REM S, V59, P641 CONGALTON RG, 1998, ASSESSING ACCURACY R DIMYATI M, 1996, INT J REMOTE SENS, V17, P931 FORMAN RTT, 1986, LANDSCAPE ECOLOGY GRAHAM RL, 1991, ECOL APPL, V1, P196 GROVER HD, 1990, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V17, P305 HASTINGS JR, 1965, CHANGING MILE ECOLOG HOUGHTON RA, 1983, ECOL MONOGR, V53, P235 HUMPHREY RR, 1958, BOT REV, V24, P193 JENSEN JR, 1993, PHOTOGRAMM ENG REM S, V59, P519 JENSEN ME, 1994, EASTSIDE FOREST ECOS, P7 KLEMAS VV, 1993, J COASTAL RES, V9, P862 MA ZK, 1995, PHOTOGRAMM ENG REM S, V61, P435 MARSH SE, 1994, REMOTE SENS ENVIRON, V48, P61 MCDONNELL MJ, 1993, HUMANS COMPONENTS EC MIGUELAYANZ JS, 1997, REMOTE SENS ENVIRON, V59, P92 MOUAT DA, 1993, GEOCARTO INT, V2, P39 MOUAT DA, 1996, GEOCARTO INT, V11, P55 NEILSON RP, 1986, SCIENCE, V232, P27 ONEILL RV, 1997, BIOSCIENCE, V47, P513 PILLON PG, 1988, PHOTOGRAMMETRIC ENG, V54, P1709 RAMSEY EW, 1997, J COASTAL RES, V13, P281 SCHLESINGER WH, 1990, SCIENCE, V247, P1043 STORY M, 1986, PHOTOGRAMM ENG REM S, V52, P397 TELLMAN B, 1997, 19 U AR WAT RES CTR TURNER BL, 1990, EARTH RANSFORMED HUM URBAN DL, 1987, BIOSCIENCE, V37, P119 WHITTLESEY SM, 1997, VANISHING RIVER LAND NR 40 TC 5 J9 ENVIRON MONIT ASSESS BP 179 EP 195 PY 2000 PD SEP VL 64 IS 1 GA 352XL UT ISI:000089244600017 ER PT J AU Wijeratne, MA TI Vulnerability of Sri Lanka tea production to global climate change SO WATER AIR AND SOIL POLLUTION LA English DT Article RP Wijeratne, MA, TEA RES INST,RES ADVISORY & EXTENS CTR,RATNAPURA,SRI LANKA. AB The tea industry is Sri Lanka's main net foreign exchange earner and source of income for the majority of laborers. Tea yield is greatly influenced by weather, and especially by droughts, which cause irreparable losses because irrigation is seldom used on tea plantations. At the other extreme, heavy rains erode top soil and wash away fertilizers and other chemicals. In the recently published Sri Lanka country report on climate change, it was reported that the island will experience extreme rainfall intensities and warmer temperatures as a result of climate change. The possibility of a 10% increase in the length of dry and wet seasons per year in the main plantation area was also indicated. Thus both drought damages and soil losses in tea production areas will increase in the years to come. An analysis of the results of field experiments with weather data shows that increases in temperature, soil moisture deficit, and saturation vapor pressure deficit in the low elevations will adversely affect growth and yield of tea Reports have also shown that about 30 cm of soil has already been eroded from upland tea plantations. Under these circumstances, the tea industry in Sri Lanka is clearly vulnerable to predicted climate changes, and subsequently greater economic, social, and environmental problems. This paper discusses the various aspects of the adverse effects of climate change on Sri Lanka's tea industry. CR *ADB, 1994, CLIM CHANG AS SRI LA *CENTR BANK, 1983, ANN REP CENTR BANK S *CENTR BANK, 1992, ANN REP CENTR BANK S *IPCC, 1994, IPCC TECHN GUID ASS CARR MKV, 1972, EXPT AGR, V8, P1 CARR MKV, 1992, TEA CULTIVATION CONS, P87 DEVANATHAN MAV, 1975, TEA Q, V45, P43 FUCH HJ, 1989, TEA ENV YIELD SRI LA HOUGHTON JT, IN PRESS CLIMATE CHA KANDIAH S, 1980, TEA Q, V49, P2533 KRISHNARAJAH P, 1985, SRI LANKA J TEA SCI, V54, P91 NAVARATNE DK, 1992, TEA B, V12, P34 SQUIRE GR, 1990, PHYSL TROPICAL CROP STOCKING M, 1992, 14 MAH AUTH SRI LANK WATSON M, 1986, HDB TEA, P3 WIJERATNE MA, 1990, TEA B, V10, P15 WIJERATNE MA, 1994, THESIS U LONDON WIJERATNE MA, 1996, ADAPTING CLIMATE CHA YATAWATTE ST, 1992, TEA B, V12, P87 NR 19 TC 3 J9 WATER AIR SOIL POLLUT BP 87 EP 94 PY 1996 PD SEP VL 92 IS 1-2 GA VM538 UT ISI:A1996VM53800010 ER PT J AU Williams, NSG McDonnell, MJ Seager, EJ TI Factors influencing the loss of an endangered ecosystem in an urbanising landscape: a case study of native grasslands from Melbourne, Australia SO LANDSCAPE AND URBAN PLANNING LA English DT Article C1 Royal Bot Gardens Melbourne, Australian Res Ctr Urban Ecol, Melbourne, Vic, Australia. Univ Melbourne, Sch Bot, Melbourne, Vic, Australia. RP Williams, NSG, Royal Bot Gardens Melbourne, Australian Res Ctr Urban Ecol, Melbourne, Vic, Australia. AB Over the Past two decades, the decline and destruction of native grasslands in Australian cities has intensified. In Melbourne, large remnants of this endangered vegetation type have been subdivided and destroyed by urban development while linear reserves are being degraded by changes to management practices. To analyse fragmentation patterns we developed a temporal dataset spanning the period 1985-2000 that recorded the extent and distribution of native grassland patches in western Melbourne. Of the 7230 ha of native grassland present in 1985, 1670 ha (23%) were destroyed by development and 1469 ha (21%) were degraded to non-native grassland by 2000. There were fewer patches and greater distance between patches in 2000 than in 1985, indicating that fragmentation has intensified. Logistic regression models were used to determine the probabilities that a patch would be destroyed, degraded or remain as native grassland. Patches that were privately or government owned, close to major roads and close to Melbourne were more likely to be destroyed while patches close to streams or on railway land had a lower probability of destruction. Patches with high perimeter to area ratios had a higher probability of being degraded. Biological significance ranking was also an important explanatory variable determining patch fate but areas of higher significance were not necessarily preserved. The preservation and ecological management of grasslands in Australia is a high conservation priority and utilising landscape and societal based predictors of threat can help set priorities for the protection and management of sites. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 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CR *CAN ENV, 1983, HIST STREAMFL SUMM O *GREAT LAK BAS COM, 1975, GREAT LAK BAS FRAM S *INT JOINT COMM, 1981, GREAT LAK DIV CONS U *INT JOINT COMM, 1985, GREAT LAK DIV CONS U AUSUBEL JH, 1983, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V5, P7 BEDELL DJ, 1979, IRRIGATION MICHIGAN BROWN DM, 1984, CLIMATOLOGICAL B, V18, P15 BRUCE JP, 1984, J GREAT LAKES RES, V10, P126 CHEN RS, 1983, SOCIAL SCI RES CLIMA, P230 CLARK WC, 1985, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V7, P5 COHEN SJ, 1985, CAN GEOGR, V29, P113 COHEN SJ, 1986, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V8, P135 COHEN SJ, 1986, IN PRESS WATER RESOU DIAZ HF, 1985, J CLIM APPL METEOROL, V24, P145 EASTERLING WE, 1985, 4TH C APPL CLIM AM M FOSTER HD, 1981, WATER EMERGING CRISI KATES RW, 1985, CLIMATE IMPACT ASSES MUNN RE, 1985, CARBON DIOXIDE ISSUE, P19 PARRY ML, 1984, ASSESSING IMPACT CLI QUINN FH, 1981, WATER RESOUR RES, V17, P1619 QUINN FH, 1985, COMMUNICATION 0920 SOLLEY WB, 1983, 1001 US DEP INT GEOL SOLLEY WB, 1985, COMMUNICATION 1015 VANTIL RL, 1985, COMMUNICATION 0702 NR 24 TC 7 J9 PROF GEOGR BP 317 EP 323 PY 1986 PD NOV VL 38 IS 4 GA G4354 UT ISI:A1986G435400001 ER PT J AU Potschin, M Haines-Young, R TI "Rio+10", sustainability science and Landscape Ecology SO LANDSCAPE AND URBAN PLANNING LA English DT Article C1 Univ Nottingham, Sch Geog, Nottingham NG7 2RD, England. RP Potschin, M, Univ Nottingham, Sch Geog, Nottingham NG7 2RD, England. AB The 'sustainability debate' has had a profound influence on contemporary Landscape Ecology. This paper explores the implications of the second global summit for the research agendas that developed after the Rio Summit (1992), and argues that although the Declaration from Johannesburg 2002 restates the earlier summit concerns, the messages it sends to the research community are subtly different to those a decade earlier. The growing body of literature, which identifies the need for a new kind of sustainability science, is reviewed, and its relevance to Landscape Ecology is discussed. Although recent commentators have argued for a more transdisciplinary approach to Landscape Ecology that appears to meet the requirements of this new science we still lack ways of taking this forward. The paper concludes by proposing a new paradigm for Landscape Ecology based on the concept of ecosystem goods and services, or natural capital. It is argued that in the decade since the Rio Summit, a key focus of the future research agenda for the discipline should be an exploration of the 'sustainability choice space' defined by the interaction of biophysical limits and social and economic values at the landscape- scale. The paper provides a conceptual model (the tongue model) that describes how biophysical and socio-economic constraints can be combined in sustainability planning. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 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Arizona State Univ, Sch Comp & Informat, Tempe, AZ 85287 USA. Indiana Univ, Workshop Polit Theory & Policy Anal, Bloomington, IN 47408 USA. Indiana Univ, Ctr Study Inst Populat & Environm Change, Bloomington, IN 47408 USA. RP Janssen, MA, Arizona State Univ, Sch Human Evolut & Social Change, Box 872402, Tempe, AZ 85287 USA. CR ADGER WN, 2005, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V15, P75 ADGER WN, 2006, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V16, P268 BERKES F, 1998, LINKING SOCIAL ECOLO, V1, P1 FOLKE C, 2006, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V16, P253 GALLOPIN GC, 1989, INT SOC SCI J, V41, P375 GALLOPIN GC, 2006, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V16, P293 HOLLING CS, 1973, ANNUAL REV ECOLOGY S, V4, P1 JANSSEN MA, 2006, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V16, P240 SMIT B, 2006, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V16, P282 TURNER BL, 2003, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V100, P8080 YOUNG OR, 2006, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V16, P304 NR 11 TC 0 J9 GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANGE BP 237 EP 239 PY 2006 PD AUG VL 16 IS 3 GA 073OJ UT ISI:000239752200002 ER PT J AU Clark, WC TI Sustainability science: A room of its own SO PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA LA English DT Editorial Material CR *INT COUNC SCI, 2002, SCI TECHN SUST DEV *NAT RES COUNC POL, 1999, COMM JOURN TRANS SUS *WORLDS SCI AC, 2000, TRANS SUST 21 CENT C KATES RW, 2001, SCIENCE, V292, P641 SCHELLNHUBER HJ, 2004, EARTH SYSTEM ANAL SU STOKES DE, 1997, PASTEURS QUADRANT BA NR 6 TC 0 J9 PROC NAT ACAD SCI USA BP 1737 EP 1738 PY 2007 PD FEB 6 VL 104 IS 6 GA 135BD UT ISI:000244127900001 ER PT J AU Reddy, VR Reddy, MG Galab, S Soussan, J Springate-Baginski, O TI Participatory watershed development in India: Can it sustain rural livelihoods? SO DEVELOPMENT AND CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 Ctr Econ & Social Studies, Hyderabad, Andhra Pradesh, India. York Univ, N York, ON M3J 1P3, Canada. Stockholm Environm Inst, Water Grp, Stockholm, Sweden. RP Reddy, VR, Ctr Econ & Social Studies, Hyderabad, Andhra Pradesh, India. AB The purpose of this article is to assess the impact of policy interventions through watershed development (WD) on the livelihoods of the rural communities. This is done by assessing the programme in the context of a sustainable rural livelihoods framework, that is, looking at its impact on the five types of capital assets and strategies required for the means of living. The article also examines the vulnerability and stability of these capital assets, as well as analysing which people participate in the programme and enhance their livelihoods through sharing its benefits. In the light of the analysis, it is argued that watershed development holds the potential for enhanced livelihood security even in geo-climatic conditions where the watershed cannot bring direct irrigation benefits oil a large scale. In such fragile environments, however, watershed development is a necessary but not a sufficient condition for sustaining rural livelihoods. While the focus of watershed development is primarily on strengthening the ecological base such as water bodies (including traditional tanks), grazing lands and wastelands, it should be complemented with other programmes which focus on landless poor households in order to make it pro-poor. In the context of low rainfall regions where improvement in irrigation facilities is slow, agriculture alone cannot support the communities. Policies and programmes should aim at creating an environment for diverse livelihood activities, which are the choice of the household rather than distress activities. CR *GOI, 1991, REP NAT COMM RUR L 2, V2 *GOI, 1994, GUID WAT DEV *UNDP, 2003, HUM DEV REP 2003 AGRAWAL A, 1994, RULES GAMES COMMON P, P267 BAUMANN P, 2000, 136 OV DEV I CAMPBELL B, 2000, EVALUATING IMPACTS I CARNEY D, 1998, SUSTAINABLE RURAL LI CHAMBERS R, 1992, 276 IDS U SUSS DAVIES S, 1996, ADAPTABLE LIVELIHOOD DESHPANDE RS, 1990, INDIAN J AGR ECON, V45, P355 DESHPANDE RS, 1991, IND J AGR EC, V46, P261 ELLIS F, 2000, LIVELIHOODS DIVERSIT HANNA SS, 1996, ENVIRON DEV ECON, V1, P122 PUTNAM RD, 1993, MAKING DEMOCRACY WOR RAO CH, 2000, LOV KUM MEM LECT DEL RAVALLION M, 2001, WORLD BANK ECON REV, V15, P115 REDDY V, 1998, INT C EUR SOC EC EC REDDY V, 2000, ECON POLIT WEEKLY, V35, P3435 REDDY V, 2001, REVIVING TRADITIONAL REDDY V, 2001, WATERSHED DEV LIVELI RENNIE JK, 1996, PARTICIPATORY RES SU SCOONES I, 1998, 72 IDS U SUSS SEN AK, 1981, POVERTY FAMINES ESSA, V1, P1 SEN AK, 1985, COMMODITIES CAPABILI SOUSSAN J, 2000, 7 SCH GEOGR SOUSSAN J, 2003, POVERTY WATER SECURI TURTON C, 2000, 131 OV DEV I NR 27 TC 0 J9 DEVELOP CHANGE BP 297 EP 326 PY 2004 PD APR VL 35 IS 2 GA 820AF UT ISI:000221358000004 ER PT J AU Moore, S Daniel, M Linnan, L Campbell, M Benedict, S Meier, A TI After hurricane floyd passed - Investigating the social determinants of disaster preparedness and recovery SO FAMILY & COMMUNITY HEALTH LA English DT Article C1 Univ N Carolina, Sch Publ Hlth, Dept Hlth Behav, Chapel Hill, NC USA. Univ N Carolina, Sch Publ Hlth, Dept Hlth Educ, Chapel Hill, NC USA. Univ N Carolina, Sch Publ Hlth, Dept Epidemiol, Chapel Hill, NC USA. Univ N Carolina, Ctr Hlth Promot & Dis Prevent, Chapel Hill, NC USA. Univ N Carolina, Sch Social Work, Chapel Hill, NC USA. Univ N Carolina, Sch Publ Hlth, Dept Nutr, Chapel Hill, NC USA. RP Moore, S, Ctr Hlth & Policy Studies, Dept Community Hlth Sci, 3330 Hosp Dr NW, Calgary, AB T2N 4N1, Canada. AB In September 1999, Hurricane Floyd struck eastern North Carolina. Investigators from the health promotion study "Health Works for Women/Health Works in the Community" responded by initiating a focused research study, "Health Works After the Flood." Participatory research involving a multilevel design and qualitative methods was applied to investigate how community preparedness, response, and recovery are affected by social factors such as social capital, social cohesion, and collective efficacy. This article presents evidence from qualitative research conducted for "Health Works After the Flood" and links these findings to observations regarding current conceptualizations of social capital and related concepts. CR 2000, UNPUB HURRICANE FLOY *US GOV, 2000 US CENS DAT ALEXANDER D, 1993, NATURAL DISASTERS ALEXANDER D, 1997, DISASTERS, V21, P284 BARNES J, 2001, N CAROLINAS HURRICAN BEAUVAIS C, 2002, F22 CAN POL RES NETW BENEDICT S, 1999, WELLNESS MANAGEMENT, V15, P6 BLAIKIE PM, 1994, RISK NATURAL HAZARDS, V1, P1 BOURDIEU P, 1992, INVITATION REFLEXIVE BURRITT C, 1999, ATLANTA J CONST 0921, A1 CAMPBELL MK, 2002, PREV MED, V34, P313 CLINEBELL M, 1999, SAMPSON INDEPEN 0922, P1 ECKENRODE J, 1990, PERSONAL RELATIONSHI FREDERICK C, 1993, PREHOSPITAL DISASTER, V8, P89 GERRITY E, 1997, PUBLIC HLTH CONSEQUE GIEL R, 1990, INT J MENT HEALTH, V19, P7 GODSCHALK DR, 1999, NATURAL HAZARD MITIG HARDIN J, 1999, FREE PRESS 0921, P1 HAWE P, 2000, SOC SCI MED, V51, P871 JENSON J, 1998, F03 CAN POL RES NETW KANIASTY K, 1995, AM J COMMUN PSYCHOL, V23, P447 KANIASTY K, 1999, RESPONSE DISASTER KAWACHI I, 1997, AM J PUBLIC HEALTH, V87, P1491 KAWACHI I, 2000, SOCIAL EPIDEMIOLOGY KELSEY KS, 2000, AM J HEALTH BEHAV, V24, P434 LOCHNER K, 1999, HEALTH PLACE, V5, P259 MOONEYHAM S, 2002, ASS PRESS STATE 0116 MOORE S, 103 U CALG CTR HLTH MORROW BH, 1999, DISASTERS, V23, P1 MUHR T, 1997, ATLAS TI NAVARRO V, 2002, INT J HEALTH SERV, V32, P423 PEACOCK W, 1997, HURRICANE ANDREW ETH PERRY R, 1986, MINORITY CITIZENS DI PRESS A, 1999, SAMPSON INDEPEN 0918, P9 PUTNAM RD, 1996, AM PROSPECT, V24, P34 SAMPSON RJ, 1997, SCIENCE, V277, P918 SAMPSON RJ, 2002, ANNU REV SOCIOL, V28, P443 STITH P, 2002, NEWS OBSERVER 0117, P10 STITH P, 2002, NEWS OBSERVER 0121, P1 STITH P, 2002, NEWS OBSERVER 0121, P1 STITH P, 2002, NEWS OBSERVER 0121, P8 SUBRAMANIAN SV, 2002, HEALTH PLACE, V9, P33 TESSARO I, 1998, AM J HEALTH BEHAV, V22, P434 TURNER V, 1985, EDGE BUSH WELSH K, 1999, FREE PRESS 0921, P1 WELSH K, 1999, FREE PRESS 0921, P3 NR 46 TC 0 J9 FAMILY COMMUNITY HEALTH BP 204 EP 217 PY 2004 PD JUL-SEP VL 27 IS 3 GA 830QV UT ISI:000222138700006 ER PT J AU Gladstone, W Tawfiq, N Nasr, D Andersen, I Cheung, C Drammeh, H Krupp, F Lintner, S TI Sustainable use of renewable resources and conservation in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden: issues, needs and strategic actions SO OCEAN & COASTAL MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article C1 Univ Newcastle, Sch Sci & Technol, Sustain Resource Management & Coastal Ecol Unit, Ourimbah, NSW 2258, Australia. UN, Dev Programme, Reg Bur Arab States, New York, NY 10017 USA. UN, Environm Programme, Water Branch, Nairobi, Kenya. Foschungsinst Senckenberg, Ichthyol Dept, D-60325 Frankfurt, Germany. World Bank, Dept Environm, Washington, DC 20433 USA. Reg Org Conservat Environm Red Sea & Gulf Eden, PERSGA, Jeddah 21431, Saudi Arabia. RP Gladstone, W, Univ Newcastle, Sch Sci & Technol, Sustain Resource Management & Coastal Ecol Unit, Cent Coast Campus,POB 127, Ourimbah, NSW 2258, Australia. AB The coastal and marine environments and resources of the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden are globally significant and generally in a healthy state. Current regional issues include localized destruction of coral reefs, seagrass and mangroves; declines in some fisheries; exploitation of some endangered species; pollution from the development and transport of petroleum; and disposal of industrial and municipal wastes. The underlying causes of these issues are the natural vulnerability of the Red Sea due to its semi-enclosed nature; economic reliance on the petroleum industry; significant navigation risks; a rapidly increasing coastal population and associated developments; lack of fisheries information, surveillance and management; poor coastal zone planning; and limited technical expertise. Strategic actions addressing these issues will need to be implemented regionally and focus on coastal zone management that integrates environmental planning, environmental assessment and review; training and institutional development; public awareness and participation; information gathering especially fisheries statistics: reducing navigation risks; and the development of resource management and conservation strategies. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. CR 1997, ENV HLTH PERSPECTIVE, V105, P1288 *AR REP EGYPT, 1997, COUNTR REP PREP PERS *DNV, 1997, NAV RISK ASS MAN PLA *EUR UN MIN FISH W, 1995, COAST MAR HAB SURV P *FAO, 1995, STRAT AGR DEV SOM RE *GULD AD COAST SOM, 1997, COUNTR REP PREP PERS *HASH KINGD JORD, 1997, COUNTR REP PREP PERS *IUCN, 1987, YEM AR REP MAR CONS *KINGD SAUD AR, 1997, COUNTR REP PREP PERS *REP DJIB, 1997, COUNTR REP PREP PERS *REP SUD, 1997, COUNTR REP PREP PERS *REP YEM, 1997, PREP PERSGA UNDP SUP *UNDP GEF, 1996, BOD CONS SUST DEV PR *UNEP, 1982, UNEP REG SEAS REP ST *UNEP, 1987, UNEP REG SEAS REP ST, V84 *WORLD RES I, 1994, WORD RES 1994 95 ABUBAKR OA, 1995, THESIS U KHARTOUM KH COGNETTI G, 1997, MAR POLLUT BULL, V34, P752 ELDER D, 1997, ANAL REGIONAL MARINE EVANS MI, 1994, IMPORTANT BIRD AREAS GASPERETTI J, 1993, FAUNA SAUDI ARABIA, V13, P170 HAWKINS JP, 1992, BIOL CONSERV, V62, P171 HAWKINS JP, 1994, AMBIO, V23, P503 JANSSON BO, 1997, AMBIO, V26, P424 KINDLER J, 1993, ENVIRONMENT, V35, P7 KRUPP F, 1998, REGIONAL STUDY STATU LINTNER SF, 1996, EXPERIENCE WORLD BAN LINTNER SF, 1997, AMBIO, V26, P418 ORMOND RFG, 1982, REP NEED MAN MAR PAR PREEN A, 1989, MEPA COASTAL MARINE, V1 RAPPORT DJ, 1998, ENVIRON MONIT ASSESS, V51, P171 RUSHDIE AI, 1994, MARINE HABITATS RED SEKULIC B, 1997, WATER RES, V31, P3178 SHEPPARD C, 1992, MARINE ECOLOGY ARABI SHEPPARD CRC, 1988, DIRECTORY CORAL REEF, V2 SHEPPARD CRC, 1991, FAUNA SAUDI ARABIA, V12, P1 NR 36 TC 5 J9 OCEAN COAST MANAGE BP 671 EP 697 PY 1999 VL 42 IS 8 GA 225ZZ UT ISI:000081997000002 ER PT J AU Perarnaud, V Seguin, B Malezieux, E Deque, M Loustau, D TI Agrometeorological research and applications needed to prepare agriculture and forestry to 21st century climate change SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 Meteo France, Direct Prod, F-31057 Toulouse, France. INRA, Unite Agroclim, F-84914 Avignon, France. Meteo France, Ctr Natl Rech Meteorol, F-31057 Toulouse, France. Ctr Cooperat Int Rech Agron Dev, Cirad DS, F-34398 Montpellier, France. INRA, F-33611 Gazinet, France. RP Perarnaud, V, Meteo France, Direct Prod, 42 Ave Coriolis, F-31057 Toulouse, France. AB The adaptation of agriculture and forestry to the climate of the twenty-first century supposes that research projects will be conducted cooperatively between meteorologists, agronomists, soil scientists, hydrologists, and modellers. To prepare for it, it is appropriate first of all to study the variations in the climate of the past using extensive, homogenised series of meteorological or phenological data. General circulation models constitute the basic tool in order to predict future changes in climate. They will be improved, and the regionalisation techniques used for downscaling climate predictions will also be made more efficient. Crop simulation models using input data from the general circulation models applied at the regional level ought to be the favoured tools to allow the extrapolation of the major trends on yield, consumption of water, fertilisers, pesticides, the environment and rural development. For this, they have to be validated according to the available agronomical data, particularly the available phenological series on cultivated crops. In addition, climate change would have impact on crop diseases and parasites, as well as on weeds. Very few studies have been carried out in this field. It is also necessary to quantify in a more accurate way the stocks and fluxes of carbon in large forest ecosystems, simulate their future, and assess the vulnerability of the various forest species to a change in climate. This is all the more important in that some propagate species choices must be made in the course of the next ten years in plantations which will experience changed climate. More broadly speaking, we shall have not only to try hard to research new agricultural and forestry practices which will reduce greenhouse gas emissions or promote the storage of carbon, but it will also be indispensable to prepare the adaptation of numerous rural communities for the climate change (with special reference to least developed countries in tropical areas, where malnutrition is a common threat). This can be accomplished with a series of new environmental management practices suited to the new climatic order. CR *IPCC, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 BOIFFIN J, 2001, CROP SCI PROGR PROSP, P261 BRISSON N, 1998, AGRONOMIE, V18, P311 BRISSON N, 2002, AGRONOMIE, V22, P69 CHAKRABORTY S, 1998, AUSTRALAS PLANT PATH, V27, P15 CHEN WJ, 1999, GLOB CHANGE BIOL, V5, P41 CHRISTENSEN JH, 2001, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V28, P1003 COAKLEY SM, 1996, ASPECTS APPL BIOL, V45, P227 COAKLEY SM, 1999, ANNU REV PHYTOPATHOL, V37, P399 DELECOLLE R, 1995, CLIMATE CHANGE AGR A, P241 DELECOLLE R, 2000, IMPACTS POTENTIELS C, P74 DEQUE M, 1995, CLIM DYNAM, V11, P321 DEQUE M, 2000, MODELISATION IMPACTS DOMERGUE M, 2001, IMPACT RECHAUFFEMENT GANICHOT B, 2002, EVOLUTION DATE VENDA, P38 GIBELIN AL, 2001, SIMULATED ANTHROPOGE GIORGI F, 1992, J GEOPHYS RES-ATMOSP, V97, P10011 GOUDRIAAN J, 1995, ENVIRON POLLUT, V87, P215 HANSEN JW, 2000, CLIMATE PREDICTION A, P77 HOGENBOOM G, 2000, CLIMATE PREDICTION A, P69 HORIE T, 2000, CLIMATE CHANGE GLOBA, P81 HOUGHTON JT, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 LOREAU M, 2001, SCIENCE, V294, P804 MATTHEWS RB, 1997, AGR SYST, V54, P399 MOISSELIN JM, 2001, HOMOGENEISATION SERI MOISSELIN JM, 2002, CHANGEMENTS CLIMATIQ PERARNAUD V, 1997, 3 EUR C APPL MET GRA, P188 REICOSKY DC, 2000, CABI CLIMATE CHANGE, P27 ROBERT M, 2000, EFFETS POTENTIELS CH ROSENZWEIG C, 1998, CLIMATE CHANGE GLOBA RUGET F, 2001, MODELISTAION AGROECO, P263 SAMBA A, 2001, MODELISATION AGROECO, P243 TIMBAL B, 1995, CLIM DYNAM, V12, P1 VALENTINI R, 2000, NATURE, V404, P861 WESTE G, 1987, ANNU REV PHYTOPATHOL, V25, P207 WILBY RL, 2000, CLIMATE PREDICTION A, P39 NR 36 TC 1 J9 CLIMATIC CHANGE BP 319 EP 340 PY 2005 PD MAY VL 70 IS 1-2 GA 942EG UT ISI:000230265100017 ER PT S AU Bouman, BAM Humphreys, E Tuong, TP Barker, R TI Rice and water SO ADVANCES IN AGRONOMY, VOL 92 LA English DT Review C1 Int Rice Res Inst, Los Banos, Philippines. CSIRO Land & Water, PMB 3, Griffith, NSW 2680, Australia. Int Water Management Inst, Colombo, Sri Lanka. RP Bouman, BAM, Int Rice Res Inst, Los Banos, Philippines. AB The Comprehensive Assessment of Water Management in Agriculture (CA) seeks answers to the question of how freshwater resources can be developed and managed to feed the world's population and reduce poverty, while at the same time promoting environmental security. The CA pays particular attention to rice as this crop is the most common staple food of the largest number of people on Earth (about 3 billion people) while receiving an estimated 24-30% of the world's developed freshwater resources. Rice environments also provide unique-but as yet poorly understood-ecosystem services such as the regulation of water and the preservation of aquatic and terrestrial biodiversity. Rice production under flooded conditions is highly sustainable. In comparison with other field crops, flooded rice fields produce more of the greenhouse gas methane but less nitrous oxide, have no to very little nitrate pollution of the groundwater, and use relatively little to no herbicides. Flooded rice can locally raise groundwater tables with subsequent risk of salinization if the groundwater carries salts, but is also an effective restoration crop to leach accumulated salts from the soil in combination with drainage. The production of rice needs to increase in the coming decades to meet the food demand of growing populations. To meet the dual challenges of producing enough food and alleviating poverty, more rice needs to be produced at a low cost per kilogram grain (ensuring reasonable profits for producers) so that prices can be kept low for poor consumers. This increase in rice production needs to be accomplished under increasing scarcity of water, which threatens the sustainability and capability to provide ecosystem services of current production systems. Water scarcity is expected to shift rice production to more water-abundant delta areas, and to lead to crop diversification and more aerobic (nonflooded) soil conditions in rice fields in water-short areas. In these latter areas, investments should target the adoption of water-saving technologies, the reuse of drainage and percolation water, and the improvement of irrigation supply systems. A suite of water-saving technologies can help farmers reduce percolation, drainage, and evaporation losses from their fields by 15-20% without a yield decline. However, greater understanding of the adverse effects of increasingly aerobic field conditions on the sustainability of rice production, environment, and ecosystem services is needed. In drought-, salinity-, and flood-prone environments, the combination of improved varieties with specific management packages has the potential to increase on-farm yields by 50-100% in the coming 10 years, provided that investment in research and extension is intensified. (c) 2007, Elsevier Inc. 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1996, FIELD CROP RES, V46, P21 XU K, 2000, MOL GEN GENET, V263, P681 YANG XG, 2005, AGR WATER MANAGE, V74, P107 YOSHIDA S, 1981, FUNDAMENTALS RICE CR, P269 YUAN L, 2001, RICE RES FOOD SECURI, P143 ZHANG W, 1989, INT COMM IRR DRAIN 7, V1, P480 ZWART SJ, 2004, AGR WATER MANAGE, V69, P115 NR 149 TC 0 J9 ADVAN AGRON BP 187 EP 237 PY 2007 VL 92 GA BFP50 UT ISI:000243626600004 ER PT J AU Haile, M TI Weather patterns, food security and humanitarian response in sub-Saharan Africa SO PHILOSOPHICAL TRANSACTIONS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY B-BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES LA English DT Article C1 World Food Programme, I-00148 Rome, Italy. RP Haile, M, World Food Programme, Via C G Viola 68,Parco Medici, I-00148 Rome, Italy. AB Although considerable achievements in the global reduction of hunger and poverty have been made, progress in Africa so far has been very limited. At present, a third of the African population faces widespread hunger and chronic malnutrition and is exposed to a constant threat of acute food crisis and famine. The most affected are rural households whose livelihood is heavily dependent on traditional rainfed agriculture. Rainfall plays a major role in determining agricultural production and hence the economic and social well being of rural communities. The rainfall pattern in sub-Saharan Africa is influenced by large-scale intra-seasonal and inter-annual climate variability including occasional El Nino events in the tropical Pacific resulting in frequent extreme weather event such as droughts and floods that reduce agricultural outputs resulting in severe food shortages. Households and communities facing acute food shortages are forced to adopt coping strategies to meet the immediate food requirements of their families. These extreme responses may have adverse long-term impacts on households' ability to have sustainable access to food as well as the environment. The HIV/AIDS crisis has also had adverse impacts on food production activities on the continent. In the absence of safety nets and appropriate financial support mechanisms, humanitarian aid is required to enable households effectively cope with emergencies and manage their limited resources more efficiently. Timely and appropriate humanitarian aid will provide households with opportunities to engage in productive and sustainable livelihood strategies. Investments in poverty reduction efforts would have better impact if complemented with timely and predictable response mechanisms that would ensure the protection of livelihoods during crisis periods whether weather or conflict-related. With an improved understanding of climate variability including El Nino, the implications of weather patterns for the food security and vulnerability of rural communities have become more predictable and can be monitored effectively. The purpose of this paper is to investigate how current advances in the understanding of climate variability, weather patterns and food security could contribute to improved humanitarian decision-making. The paper will propose new approaches for triggering humanitarian responses to weather-induced food crises. CR 2005, INVESTING DEV PRACTI *COMM AFR, 2005, OUR COMM INT *FAO, 2003, STAT FOOD INS WORLD *FAO, 2004, STAT FOOD INS WORLD MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 *UNDP, 2004, RED DIS RISK CHALL BARNETT T, 1994, EFFECTS HIV AIDS FAR, P164 BARNETT T, 2003, FAO HIV AIDS FOOD LI CANE MA, 1991, TELECONNECTIONS LINK, P345 CANE MA, 1994, NATURE, V370, P204 DERCON S, 2004, J DEV ECON, V74, P309 DEWAAL A, 2003, LANCET, V362, P1234 DILLEY M, 2002, WMO B, V51, P42 DILLEY M, 2005, DISASTER RISK MANAGE, V5 DUGUERNY J, 2002, AIDS AGR AFRICA FOLLAND CU, 1986, NATURE, V32, P602 GILLESPIE S, 2001, HIV AIDS FOOD NUTR S GILLESPIE SR, 2005, IFPRI FOOD POLICY RE GLANTZ MH, 1994, P WORKSH BUD HUNG 25 GLANTZ MH, 1996, INT J AFR STUD, V1 GODDARD L, 2001, INT J CLIMATOL, V21, P1111 GOES A, 2003, ANN M AM AGR EC ASS HESS U, 2005, 13 WORLD BANK LOUGH JN, 1986, MON WEATHER REV, V114, P156 NICHOLSON SE, 1986, ARCH METEOR GEOPHY A, V34, P311 OGALLO LJ, 1988, J METEOROL SOC JPN, V66, P807 PALMER JN, 1986, NATURE, V322, P251 ROPELEWSKI CF, 1989, J CLIMATE, V2, P268 SKEES JR, 2004, INSURANCE POVERTY, P422 WOLDEGEORGIS T, 1997, USING SCI FAMINE FOO NR 30 TC 2 J9 PHIL TRANS ROY SOC B-BIOL SCI BP 2169 EP 2182 PY 2005 PD NOV 29 VL 360 IS 1463 GA 986CS UT ISI:000233427400016 ER PT J AU Warren, A Batterbury, S Osbahr, H TI Sustainability and Sahelian soils: evidence from Niger SO GEOGRAPHICAL JOURNAL LA English DT Article C1 Univ Coll London, Dept Geog, London WC1H 0AP, England. Univ Arizona, Dept Geog & Reg Dev, Tucson, AZ 85721 USA. RP Warren, A, Univ Coll London, Dept Geog, 26 Bedford Way, London WC1H 0AP, England. AB it is difficult to produce systems, for judging sustainability, despite general enthusiasm for the concept. Here we evaluate the 'capitals' formulation for sustainability which attempts to bring together the social and the environmental dimensions of the issue, and which has gained wide currency. We concentrate our attention on the 'natural capital' element in-this framework, which has apparently been seen as its least problematical component. We use data on soil erosion from a Sahelian agricultural community in Niger. Despite apparently high rates of erosion, we find it difficult to decide whether the system is, sustainable (using the capitals or any other framework). It is even dubious whether sustainability is an urgent concern. We caution against imposing yet another poorly formulated set of concepts on this and similar systems. CR *BAORD SUST DEV, 1999, OUR COMM JOURN TRANS *FAO, 2001, FAOSTATS STAT DAT FO ADAMS WM, 2001, GREEN DEV ENV SUSTAI AMISSAHARTHUR A, 2000, INT J GEOGR INF SCI, V14, P583 ANAND S, 1997, 1 UN DEV PROGR OFF D BATTERBURY S, 1999, ENVIRONMENT, V41, P6 BATTERBURY S, 2001, ECUMENE, V8, P437 BATTERBURY S, 2001, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V11, P1 BEBBINGTON A, 1999, WORLD DEV, V27, P2021 BIELDERS CL, 1998, WIND EROSION AFRICA, P95 BIELDERS CL, 2001, LAND DEGRAD DEV, V12, P57 BREMAN H, 2001, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V11, P59 BRETT EA, 2000, 0002 LSE DEV STUD I BRYCESON DF, 1999, 43 AFR STUD BRYCESON DF, 2000, NATURAL RESOURCES PE, V52 BUDELMAN A, 2000, NATURAL RESOURCES FO, V24, P173 CARNEY D, 1998, SUSTAINABLE RURAL LI CARNEY D, 1999, POVERTY BRIEFING, V2 CHAPPELL A, 1998, GEODERMA, V81, P313 CHAPPELL A, 1998, LAND DEGRAD DEV, V9, P295 COUR JM, 2001, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V11, P31 CRITCHLEY W, 1992, SOIL WATER CONSERVAT CROSSON PR, 1997, ENVIRONMENT, V39, P4 DALY H, 1992, STEADY STATE EC ESWARAN H, 1997, J SUSTAIN AGR, V10, P75 FARRINGTON J, 2001, NATURAL RESOURCES PE, V42 FINE B, 2000, SOCIAL CAPITAL VERSU FOLEY MW, 1999, J PUBLIC POLICY, V19, P141 GOLDMAN I, 2001, NATURAL RESOURCES PE, V50 GRAEF F, 2001, J ARID ENVIRON, V48, P221 GRIZTNER JA, 1988, 226 U CHIC PRESS GROOTAERT C, 2002, IN PRESS ROLE SOCIAL HARRISS J, 1997, J INT DEV, V9, P919 HARTWICK JM, 1986, EC NATURAL RESOURCE HEASLEY L, 1996, SOC NATUR RESOUR, V9, P31 HUND C, 2001, AFRICAN LAND TENURE KATES RW, 2001, SCIENCE, V292, P641 LAL R, 1993, WORLD SOIL EROSION C, P7 LAMERS JPA, 1995, NETH J AGR SCI, V43, P375 LEYS J, 1994, AUST J SOIL WATER CO, V7, P30 LUND C, 1998, LAW POWER POLITICS N MAXWELL D, 1999, DEV CHANGE, V30, P825 MEHTA L, 2001, 372 IDS MIDDLETON N, 2001, REDEFINING SUSTAINAB MORTIMORE MJ, 1998, ROOTS AFRICAN DUST S MORTIMORE MJ, 1999, WORKING SAHEL ENV SO NEEFJES K, 2000, ENV LIVELIHOODS STRA NEUMAYER E, 1999, WEAK VERSUS STRONG S OLOFIN EA, 1992, SOIL EROSION DRYLAND OSBAHR H, 1997, THESIS U COLL LONDON OSBAHR H, 2001, THESIS U COLL LONDON OSBAHR H, 2002, IN PRESS GEODEMA PEARCE DW, 1993, SUSTAINABLE ENV EC M, P70 PHILLIPS JD, 1993, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V83, P630 PIERCE MC, 1997, ACAD EMERG MED, V4, P22 POPP JH, 2000, ECOL MODEL, V130, P131 PRUGH T, 2000, LOCAL POLITICS GLOBA PUTNAM RD, 1993, AM PROSPECT, V13, P35 RAYNAUT C, 1997, SEI GLOBAL ENV DEV S REARDON T, 1995, AGR SYST, V48, P345 REDCLIFT M, 1994, STRATEGIES SUSTAINAB, P1 REIJ C, 1996, SUSTAINING SOIL, P1 RITCHIE JC, 2001, BIBLIO PUBLICATIONS ROCHETTE RM, 1989, SAHEL LUTTE CONTRE D ROLING NG, 1998, FACILITATING SUSTAIN, P283 ROUCH J, 1956, J SOC AFRICANISTES, V26, P33 SCOONES I, 2001, 72 IDS SCOONES I, 2001, DIVERSITY DYNAMICS S SERAGELDIN I, 1996, MONOGRAPH SERIES WOR, V5 SERAGELDIN I, 1999, CURRENT SCI, V75, P501 SNEDDON CS, 2000, PROG HUM GEOG, V24, P521 SOLOW RM, 1986, SCAND J ECON, V88, P141 STERK G, 1997, 15 WAG U STOCKING M, 1994, SOIL SCI SUSTAINABLE, P40 TAIT J, 2000, FUTURES, V32, P247 TAYLOR AG, 1996, SOILS SUSTAINABILITY TAYLORPOWELL E, 1991, TROPSOILS B N CAROLI, V9104 TURNER MD, 1999, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V89, P191 VANDERPOL F, 1992, B ROYAL KIT, V325 WACKERNAGEL M, 1997, ECOL ECON, V20, P3 WARREN A, 2001, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V11, P79 WILLIAMS TO, 1997, SOIL TILL RES, V42, P295 WOOLCOCK M, 2000, WORLD BANK RES OBSER, V15, P225 XU F, 1995, J SOIL WATER CONSERV, V50, P312 NR 84 TC 3 J9 GEOGR J BP 324 EP 341 PY 2001 PD DEC VL 167 GA 506BC UT ISI:000172949200003 ER PT J AU Tapela, BN TI The challenge of integration in the implementation of Zimbabwe's new water policy: case study of the catchment level institutions surrounding the Pungwe-Mutare water supply project SO PHYSICS AND CHEMISTRY OF THE EARTH LA English DT Article C1 Univ Western Cape, Ctr So African Studies, Water Studies Programme, ZA-7535 Bellville, South Africa. RP Tapela, BN, Univ Western Cape, Ctr So African Studies, Water Studies Programme, Post Bag X17, ZA-7535 Bellville, South Africa. AB Integrated water resources management (IWRM) is viewed by policy makers and practitioners as facilitating the achievement of a balance between water resource use and resource protection, and the resolution of water-related conflicts. The IWRM approach has found particular use in the new water policies of Southern African countries such as Zimbabwe, where water scarcity, after the land question, is perceived to be a major threat to political, economic, social, military and environmental security. Ultimately, IWRM is seen as providing a framework towards ensuring broader security at the local, national, regional and global levels. However, the pilot phase implementation of the new water policy in the various regional countries has revealed that although the legal and institutional frameworks have been put in place, the implementation of the IWRM approach has tended to be problematic (J. Latham, 2001; GTZ, 2000; Leestemaker, 2000; Savenige and van der Zaag, 2000; Sithole, 2000). This paper adopts a case study approach and empirically examines the institutional challenges of implementing the IWRM approach in the post-pilot phase of Zimbabwe's new water policy. The focus is mainly on the institutional arrangements surrounding the Pungwe-Mutare Water Supply Project located within the Save Catchment Area in Eastern Zimbabwe. The major findings of the study are that, while there persist some problems associated with the traditional management approach, there have also emerged new challenges to IWRM. These mainly relate to the transaction costs of the water sector reforms, institutional resilience, stakeholder participation, and the achievement of the desired outcomes. There have also been problems emanating from unexpected political developments at the local and national levels, particularly with regard to the government's "fast track" land resettlement programme. The paper concludes that there is a need for a more rigorous effort towards integrating the management of water resources by the catchment level institutions. (C) 2002 Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. CR 1995, STRATEGY INTEGRATED 2000, WATER RIVER SYSTEMS *DEP WAT DEV, 2000, MEMORANDUM UNDERSTAN *GTZ, 2000, HIST LESS LEARN FORM *NORCONSULT, 2000, REP ENV AUD TEAM MUT *UNESCO, 2000, DUBL STAT WAT ENV BOOTH K, 1994, SECURITY REGIME SO A DARKOH MBK, 1996, APPROACHING NATURE L, P73 LATHAM J, 2001, EXPERIENCES EQUITY E MURUNGWENI ZN, 2001, SEM M PHIL WAT STUD PARPART JL, 2001, RETHINKING EMPOWERME SITHOLD B, 2000, TELLING IT LIKE IT D SKANSKA, 1999, PUNGWE MUTARE WATER SWATUK LA, 2000, SWIMMING UPSTREAM WA TAPELA BN, 1997, INT C ENV DEV AG 21 VANDERZAAG P, 2001, WATER RESOURCES MANA VANDERZAAG P, 2001, WATER RESOURCES MANA, CH1 VANDERZAAG P, 2001, WATER RESOURCES MANA, CH3 VAZ AC, 2000, WATER POLICY, V2, P1 WALKER PA, 2000, COMMONS SO AFRICA, V2, P4 NR 20 TC 0 J9 PHYS CHEM EARTH BP 993 EP 1004 PY 2002 VL 27 IS 11-22 GA 614BH UT ISI:000179166600037 ER PT J AU Thomas, A Tellam, J TI Modelling of recharge and pollutant fluxes to urban groundwaters SO SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT LA English DT Article C1 Univ Birmingham, Hydrogeol Res Grp, Sch Geog Earth & Environm Sci, Birmingham B15 2TT, W Midlands, England. Univ Western Cape, Dept Earth Sci, ZA-7535 Bellville, South Africa. RP Tellam, J, Univ Birmingham, Hydrogeol Res Grp, Sch Geog Earth & Environm Sci, Birmingham B15 2TT, W Midlands, England. AB Urban groundwater resources are of considerable importance to the long-term viability of many cities world-wide, yet prediction of the quantity and quality of recharge is only rarely attempted at anything other than a very basic level. This paper describes the development of UGIf, a simple model written within a GIS, designed to provide estimates of spatially distributed recharge and recharge water quality in unconfined but covered aquifers. The following processes (with their calculation method indicated) are included: runoff and interception (curve number method); evapotranspiration (Penman-Grindley); interflow (empirical index approach); volatilization (Henry's law); sorption (distribution coefficient); and degradation (first order decay). The input data required are: meteorological data, landuse/cover map with event mean concentration attributes, geological maps with hydraulic and geochemical attributes, and topographic and water table elevation data in grid form. Standard outputs include distributions of: surface runoff, infiltration, potential recharge, ground level slope, interflow, actual recharge, pollutant fluxes in surface runoff, travel times of each pollutant through the unsaturated zone, and the pollutant fluxes and concentrations at the water table. The process of validation has commenced with a study of the Triassic Sandstone aquifer underlying Birmingham, UK. UGIf predicts a similar average recharge rate for the aquifer as previous groundwater flow modelling studies, but with significantly more spatial detail: in particular the results indicate that recharge through paved areas may be more important than previously thought. The results also highlight the need for more knowledge/data on the following: runoff estimation; interflow (including the effects of lateral flow and channelling on flow times and therefore chemistry); evapotranspiration in paved areas; the nature of unsaturated zone flow below paved areas; and the role of the pipe network. Although considerably more verification is needed, UGIf shows promise for use: in providing input for regional groundwater solute transport models; in identifying gaps in knowledge and data; in determining which processes are the most important influences on urban groundwater quantity and quality; in evaluating existing recharge models; in planning, for example in investigation of the effects of landuse or climate change; and in assessing groundwater vulnerability. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. CR 1997, P 27 INT ASS HYDR C *AFRICOVER, 1998, TECHN DOC AFRICOVER *BRIT GEOL SURV, 2000, DIG DRIFT SOL GEOL *NCSPA, 1999, MOD SEW DES *US EPA, 1983, 20460 US EPA *US EPA, 1998, EPA600R87128A *US EPA, 1998, EPA600R87128B ALLEN DJ, 1997, PHYS PROP MAJ AQ ENG ANTONIO E, 1999, STORMWATER DRAIN CHE BRIDGE DM, 1997, WE9549 BRIT GEOL SUR BROWNE FX, 1990, STANDARD HDB ENV ENG BUDDEMEIER RW, 1996, GROUNDWATER FLUX OCE CLAPP RB, 1978, WATER RESOUR RES, V14, P601 DEBIE CA, 1996, LAND USE DATABASE KN DELZER GC, 1991, WATER RESOURCES INVE DURR CS, 2003, THESIS U BIRMINGHAM ELLIS PA, 2003, THESIS U BIRMINGHAM FORD M, 1992, J HYDROL, V140, P297 FORD M, 1994, J HYDROL, V156, P101 FREEZE RA, 1979, GROUNDWATER GRESWELL RB, 1992, THESIS U BIRMINGHAM HARRIS JM, 2000, URBAN RUNOFF CONTRIB HOWARD KWF, 2002, CURRENT PROBLEMS HYD, V8 JACKSON D, 1983, Q J ENG GEOL, V16, P135 KNIPE CV, 1993, CIRIA SPECIAL PUBLIC, V92 LOPES TJ, 98409 US GEOL SURV NARANJO E, 1998, GIS BASED NONPOINT P RITSEMA CJ, 1999, J HYDROL, V215, P1 RIVETT MO, 1990, J HYDROL, V113, P307 SHEPHERD KA, 2003, THESIS U BIRMINGHAM SHEPHERD KA, 2006, UK SCI TOTAL ENV, V360, P180 SHEPP DL, 1996, PETROLEUM HYDROCARBO SILILO OTN, 2000, GROUND WATER, V38, P864 TELLAM JH, 2002, NATO SCI S SS IV EAR, V8, P139 THOMAS AA, 2001, THESIS U BIRMINGHAM NR 35 TC 1 J9 SCI TOTAL ENVIR BP 158 EP 179 PY 2006 PD MAY 1 VL 360 IS 1-3 GA 047HN UT ISI:000237870500013 ER PT J AU Unruh, GC Carrillo-Hermosilla, J TI Globalizing carbon lock-in SO ENERGY POLICY LA English DT Review C1 Inst Empresa, Madrid 28006, Spain. RP Unruh, GC, Inst Empresa, Madrid Molina 12, Madrid 28006, Spain. AB This paper extends the arguments surrounding carbon lock-in elaborated in Unruh (Energy Policy 28 (2000) 817; 30 (2002) 317) to countries currently undergoing industrialization. it argues that, for numerous reasons, industrializing countries are unlikely to leapfrog carbon intensive energy development. On the contrary, carbon lock-in may be globalizing and could further constrain climate change mitigation options. It is then argued that many policy recommendations ignore carbon lock-in, possibly limiting their potential for successful implementation. The paper then discusses four policy approaches that appear to have advantages given lock-in conditions. It is recognized, however, that relative ease of implementation does not necessarily equate with superiority. Instead, it is merely a path dependent outcome of past development decisions. Pursuing policies on the basis of relative implementation ease may help address the issue of climate change, but could also result in sub-optimal outcomes along other dimensions of sustainable development. (c) 2004 Published by Elsevier Ltd. 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AB A study of the area, including Rosetta city and the estuary of the river Nile (Rosetta branch), has been carried out for assessment of the impact of sea level rise (sir). A geographic information system (GIS) has been built including layers of land use, topography, archeological sites, land cover and population. Analysis of data has been carried out to assess vulnerability of various land use and land cover classes to the impact of sea level rise. Because the area under study has geomorphic relief profiles just over the sea level, inundation of total land could reach 26% of total study area due to only half a meter rise in sea level. This lost area includes 32% of urban clusters mainly used for human shelter and contains 52% of present monuments, 25% of valuable high quality dense palm trees cultivation, 75% of beaches and 19% of lands suitable, 25% of valuable high quality dense palm trees cultivation, 75% of beaches and 19% of lands suitable for agricultural reclamation (although suffering from salt water intrusion and soil salinization). This is expected to cause a significant impact on the present population, economic activities, total regional revenue, and also on tourism. At 1.1 m sea level rise, 72% to total study area could be inundated. This area contains all beaches, half of the palm cultivation, 43% of total urban clusters, which includes 81% of the monumental sites and historic buildings. Other environmental problems such as solid waste management, sanitary disposal network, deteriorating conditions of some monumental structures, in addition to the sea level rise act negatively on the environmental quality of the urban community. Future plans for urban expansion in the area must be studied carefully in order to preserve valuable palm lands and maintain and protect monuments and historic sites which help the promotion of tourism. An environmental management program is essential for upgrading tourism, promoting urban development and protecting coastal lands. 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Simon Fraser Univ, Dept Geog, Burnaby, BC V5A 1S6, Canada. RP Reed, MG, Univ Saskatchewan, Dept Geog, 9 Campus Dr, Saskatoon, SK S7N 5A5, Canada. AB While stakeholder involvement in environmental management is now common, we suggest that stakeholders can contribute to a pluralistic civic science that incorporates local knowledge directly into environmental decision making and research. We consider how insights from feminist scholarship might help us to understand the influence of power relations among our subjects of study and in determining how scientific knowledge is defined and used. We pay particular attention to how knowledge is produced, how participation is constrained, and to what extent community participants and researchers would benefit from critical reflection in their work. We apply these elements to an assessment of a community forestry pilot project in Burns Lake, British Columbia, Canada. Our findings suggest that while local participants have considered community forestry effective, practices have not met the ideals of a pluralistic civic science. We identify some of the reasons for this discrepancy and provide suggestions for future practice. 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Univ Reading, CGAM, Dept Meteorol, Reading RG6 6BB, Berks, England. RP Huntingford, C, Ctr Ecol & Hydrol, Wallingford OX10 8BB, Oxon, England. AB Projected changes in surface climate are reviewed at a range of temporal scales, with an emphasis on tropical northern Africa-a region considered to be particularly vulnerable to climate change. Noting the key aspects of 'weather' affecting crop yield, we then consider relevant and projected change using output from a range of state of the art global climate models (GCMs), and for different future emission scenarios. The outputs from the models reveal significant inter-model variation in the change expected by the end of the twenty-first century for even the lowest IPCC emission scenario. We provide a set of recommendations on future model diagnostics, configurations and ease of use to close further the gap between GCMs and smaller-scale crop models. 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AB This paper analyzes environmental degradation in rural China as structurally embedded in China's rapid economic growth in the post-Mao era. The theoretical discussion focuses on changes in the organization of production, resource use, and regional development. A critical assessment of the Chinese hybrid economy challenges standard views of the reforms. The overall environmental problems of state socialist agriculture in China have been aggravated following the agrarian reforms of the current regime, Rather than mitigating negative trends, marketization and privatization have brought new, qualitatively different, environmental problems. Resource decline and its attendant social problems are not limited to aspects of transitional economy but are a fundamental part of the new hybrid system. I offer an alternative explanation for interpreting increases in rural productivity as an appropriation and use of collective assets, suggesting that the mining of communal capital is hidden behind the economic growth of the rural economy. Case studies in Heilongjiang Province based on long-term field data provide a profile of three aspects: intensification of land use, agroindustrial pollution, and declining social/communal capital. Further, the political legitimacy of the state is gradually eroded by mutually exclusive fiscal constraints on expenditure and political commitments to peasant producers. Recent repression of political dissent by peasants in hinterland regions forces indirect forms of resistance to state policy. Opportunities for sustainable development are nonetheless present within China, providing that policy makers attempt to address the structural conditions of the rural sector. 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AB The so-called greenhouse effect, global warning and associated sea-level rise are becoming accepted as probable scenarios of future climatic change. Planning authorities are therefore in need of methods of determining what the socio-economic and environmental impacts of climatic changes will be. This article reviews a proposed coastal vulnerability index (CVI) designed to assess the impacts of sea-level rise on the coastal environment worldwide, and develops a new risk-analysis procedure, on a smaller scale, using an economic hierarchy. It identifies high- and low-risk locations, high- and low-risk infrastructure in those locations, and those processes most likely to be detrimental to that infrastructure. The CVI and the risk-analysis procedure are applied to the developed areas of the southern Cape coast and show the most vulnerable areas to be those surrounding estuaries and lagoons. The greatest hazards overall are from extreme storm and flood events and the most vulnerable infrastructure is that of private housing. This suggests that the initial costs of the impacts of sea-level rise on this section of the coast will be borne by the private individual and not the nation as a whole. Suggestions for further studies are given which could help refine existing predictions of the detrimental effects of rising sea levels on the South African coastal environment. CR BRUUN P, 1962, J WATERWAYS HARBORS, V88, P117 GORNITZ V, 1989, 6TH P S COAST OC MAN HUGHES P, 1991, T R SOC S AFR, V45, P501 KEW RA, 1989, SCIENCE, V247, P521 THOMAS RH, 1987, PROG OCEANOGR, V18, P23 TSONIS AA, 1989, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V16, P795 NR 6 TC 7 J9 S AFR J SCI BP 308 EP 311 PY 1992 PD JUN VL 88 IS 6 GA JC095 UT ISI:A1992JC09500005 ER PT J AU Suman, D Guerzoni, S Molinaroli, E TI Integrated coastal management in the Venice lagoon and its watershed SO HYDROBIOLOGIA LA English DT Article C1 CNR, Ist Sci Marine, I-30122 Venice, Italy. Univ Miami, Rosenstiel Sch Marine & Atmospher Sci, Div Marine Affairs & Policy, Miami, FL 33149 USA. Univ Venice, Dipartimento Sci Ambientali, I-30123 Venice, Italy. RP Guerzoni, S, CNR, Ist Sci Marine, Riva 7 Martiri 1364-A, I-30122 Venice, Italy. AB The Venice Lagoon (VL) is a complex ecosystem in which public participation and area-based management has often been neglected by administrative bodies involved in the planning of coastal projects and public works. In this area, the analysis of the local situation highlighted a substantial absence of coordination among the various administrative bodies in charge of planning and management at various governmental levels and in different regulated economic sectors. This paper analyses public participation and collaboration with reference to the Integrated Coastal Management context (ICM). The paper examines specific requirements, constraints, and opportunities for the complex case of the VL where participatory management and institutional coordination need enhancement. 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Princeton Univ, Dept Geosci, Princeton, NJ 08544 USA. RP Oppenheimer, M, Princeton Univ, Woodrow Wilson Sch, Robertson Hall 448, Princeton, NJ 08544 USA. AB Article 2 of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), which states the treaty's long-term objective, is the subject of a growing literature that examines means to interpret and implement this provision. Here we provide context for these studies by exploring the intertwined scientific, legal, economic, and political history of Article 2. We review proposed definitions for "dangerous anthropogenic interference" and frameworks that have been proposed for implementing these definitions. Specific examples of dangerous climate changes suggest limits on global warming ranging from 1 to 4 degrees C and on concentrations ranging from 450 to 700 ppm CO2 equivalents. The implications of Article 2 for near term restrictions on greenhouse-gas emissions, e.g., the Kyoto Protocol, are also discussed. 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Inst Pasteur, Paris, France. African Dev Bank, Tunis, Tunisia. RP Garenne, M, IRD, Paris, France. AB In Zambia, under-five mortality declined from 1958 to 1975, rose from 1975 to 1992, before resuming its decline from 1992 to 2001. The study investigates the economic, political, and epidemiologic determinants of these changes. The rise in mortality could be explained by an economic downturn (declining income per capita, resulting from lower copper prices on international markets and decreasing production, and its numerous consequences), and to a lesser extent by emerging diseases (increasing mortality from HIV/AIDS and resistant malaria). However, mortality decline could resume as a result of building social and health capital, in particular health personnel, and favorable health policies. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR 2002, ECONOMIST 0601 *REP ZAMB, 1984, REP JOINT EV HLTH CA *REP ZAMB, 1988, B HLTH STAT 1985 86 *REP ZAMB, 1992, NAT HLTH POL STRAT H *REP ZAMB, 1993, ZAMB DEM HLTH SURV 1 *REP ZAMB, 1994, B HLTH STAT 1989 92 *REP ZAMB, 1995, HLTH FAC ZAMB 1995 *REP ZAMB, 1997, EV POV ZAMB 1991 96 *REP ZAMB, 1997, TRENDS DEM FAM PLANN *REP ZAMB, 1997, ZAMB DEM HLTH SURV 1 *REP ZAMB, 1998, LIV COND ZAMB 1998 *REP ZAMB, 2000, QUART DIG STAT THIRD *REP ZAMB, 2001, NAT 10 YEAR HUM RES *REP ZAMB, 2001, SEL SOC EC IND 2000 *REP ZAMB, 2002, EC REP 2001 *REP ZAMB, 2003, ZAMB DEM HLTH SURV 2 *UNICEF, 2005, STAT WORLD 2005 *WORLD BANK, 1984, ZAMB POP HLTH NUTR S *WORLD BANK, 1986, ZAMB PUBL EXP REV, V1 *WORLD BANK, 1996, COUNTR MEM ISS OPT E *WORLD BANK, 2001, 22543ZA WORLD BANK ADAMS M, 2003, LAND TENURE POLICY P AHMAD OB, 2000, B WORLD HEALTH ORGAN, V78, P1175 ATKINSON S, 1997, J INT DEV, V9, P631 BATES R, 1993, POLITICAL EC INTERAC, P387 BERMAN P, 1995, ZAMBIA NON GOVT HLTH BIGSTEN A, 2000, 22 DEP EC GOT U BIGSTEN A, 2001, WORLD ECON, V2, P139 BIJL HM, 2000, TROP MED INT HEALTH, V5, P692 BLAS E, 2001, HEALTH POLICY PLA S2, V16, P19 BLAS E, 2001, HEALTH POLICY PLA S2, V16, P29 BLOOM G, 1996, UNPUB ADAPTATION ZAM BURDETTE MM, 1997, ZAMBIA 2 WORLDS COLLIER P, 1991, AFR AFFAIRS, V90, P330 COLLIER P, 1999, J ECON LIT, V37, P64 COLLIER P, 1999, J ECON PERSPECT, V13, P3 COMBES JL, 2001, DEV POLICY REV, V20, P25 COUSSY J, 1991, AFRIQUES POLITIQUES, P123 DALOZ JP, 1996, ZAMBIE CONT DEATON A, 1999, J ECON PERSPECT, V13, P23 DUBRESSON A, 1996, ZAMBIE CONT, P125 ETTLING M, 1997, EFFICACY CHLOROQUINE FARDI MAF, 1991, RESTRUCTURING EC DIS, P332 FREUND PJ, 1986, POLITICS DISAPPOINTM FREUND PJ, 1986, SOC SCI MED, V23, P875 FUSSUM D, 1994, 1994 EPI GARENNE M, 2003, 200308 CERDI GARENNE M, 2005, 26 DHS IRD MACR CALV GUILLAUMONT P, 1999, EC VULNERABILITY LOW GWATKIN DR, 1980, POPUL DEV REV, V6, P615 HANMER L, 1999, HUMAN DEV SUB SAHARA HANMER L, 2003, J DEV STUD, V40, P101 HILL K, 1999, TRENDS CHILD MORTALI HUNT S, 1994, STUDY SERIAL, V18 KALUMBA K, 1997, 6 SECR DIV AN RES AS KALUMBA P, 1989, J HLTH POLICY PLANNI, V4, P219 KELLY MJ, 1991, 8 EDI DEV POL MADDISON A, 2001, WORLD EC MILLENNIAL MADDISON A, 2003, WORLD EC MAKRIDAKIS S, 1997, YEARLY COPPER PRICES MEDINA E, 1983, B PAN AM HLTH ORG, V17, P221 MOGEDAL S, 1995, J INT DEV, V7, P349 MUUKA GN, 1997, SCANDINAVIAN J DEV A, V16, P139 NDE JM, 1994, 2 WHO NSEMUKILA G, 1994, UNICEF MONOGRAPH, V1 RAKNER L, 2001, AID REFORM AFRICA, P532 SCOTT G, 2001, EC CHANGE GOVERNANCE, P69 SESHAMANI V, 1992, AFRICAS RECOVERY 199 SIMMS C, 1998, 76 IDS SIMMS C, 2000, 121 IDS SRINIVASAN TN, 1990, DEV THOUGHT STRATEGY TAUCHER E, 1997, REV MED CHILE, V125, P1225 TUROK B, 1989, MIXED EC FOCUS ZAMBI WHITE H, 1997, HOW CAN WE EXPLAIN R NR 74 TC 0 J9 WORLD DEVELOP BP 1765 EP 1787 PY 2006 PD OCT VL 34 IS 10 GA 097CI UT ISI:000241423600006 ER PT J AU PEPPER, D TI PHYSICAL AND HUMAN INTEGRATION - AN EDUCATIONAL-PERSPECTIVE FROM BRITISH HIGHER-EDUCATION SO PROGRESS IN HUMAN GEOGRAPHY LA English DT Article CR *ASS GRAD CAR ADV, 1985, RESP GOV GREEN PAP D *CONF BRIT IND, 1980, EV HOUS COMM SEL COM *NAT ADV BOD, 1986, 786 REP *STAND C EMPL GRAD, 1985, SURF WHAT EMPL LOOK BENNETT RJ, 1985, QUANTIFICATION RELEV BOOKCHIN M, 1980, ECOLOGICAL SOC BOWLES S, 1976, SCH CAPITALIST AM BOYSON R, 1980, TIMES HIGHER S 1003 BRADLEY P, 1983, SOC NATURE SOCIALIST BROWN EH, 1975, GEOGR J, V141, P35 BRUNSDEN D, 1985, FUTURE GEOGRAPHY BURTON I, 1978, ENV HAZARD, V1, P1 BUTZER KW, 1964, ENV ARCHAEOLOGY BUTZER KW, 1982, ARCHAEOLOGY HUMAN EC CAPRA F, 1982, TURNING POINT CAPRA F, 1984, GREEN POLITICS CARHART J, 1986, GCSE SYLLABUSES CHOI CHORLEY RJ, 1969, WATER EARTH MAN COOKE RU, 1974, GEOMORPHOLOGY ENV MA COOKE RU, 1978, J GEOGRAPHY HIGHER E, V2, P113 COOKE RU, 1982, URBAN GEOMORPHOLOGY COOKE RU, 1985, PERSPECTIVES CHANGIN, P36 CROSS J, 1986, GUARDIAN 0211 DOORNKAMP JC, 1979, AREA, V11, P307 DOUGLAS I, 1983, URBAN ENV DOUGLAS I, 1987, J GEOGRAPHY HIGHER E, V10, P191 GOUDIE A, 1981, HUMAN IMPACT MANS RO GOULD P, 1973, DIRECTIONS GEOGRAPHY GOULD P, 1985, FUTURE GEOGRAPHY GREGORY KJ, 1979, MAN ENV PROCESS GREGORY KJ, 1985, NATURE PHYSICAL GEOG HAIGH MJ, 1985, GEOFORUM, V16, P191 HALES M, 1982, SCI SOC HANCOCK D, 1986, JAN ANN C I BRIT GEO HARRIS K, 1979, ED KNOWLEDGE HARVEY D, 1974, T I BRIT GEOGR, V63, P18 HEWITT K, 1973, 20 ASS AM GEOGR COMM HEWITT K, 1983, INTERPRETATIONS CALA HUCKLE J, 1983, GEOGRAPHICAL ED REFL, CH10 HUCKLE J, 1985, FUTURE GEOGRAPHY HURST ME, 1985, FUTURE GEOGRAPHY JOHNSTON RJ, 1977, J GEOGRAPHY HIGHER E, V1, P5 JOHNSTON RJ, 1983, GEOGRAPHY GEOGRAPHER JOHNSTON RJ, 1983, PROG PHYS GEOG, V7, P127 JOHNSTON RJ, 1985, FUTURE GEOGRAPHY JOHNSTON RJ, 1986, HUMAN GEOGRAPHY JONES DKC, 1983, T I BRIT GEOGR, V8, P429 JOSEPH K, 1985, APR ANN C GEOGR ASS LEE R, 1986, J GEOGR HIGHER EDUC, V10, P7 LINDSAY R, 1984, SURVEY EMPLOYERS GRA MAUNDER WH, 1970, VALUE WEATHER NEWSON MD, 1975, GEOGRAPHICAL J, V141, P35 ORME A, 1985, FUTURE GEOGRAPHY PARKER DJ, 1979, GEOGRAPHY, V64, P307 PARKER DJ, 1980, WATER PLANNING BRITA PEPPER D, 1983, SOC NATURE SOCIALIST PEPPER D, 1986, CONT ISSUES GEOGRAPH, V2, P62 RICHARDS G, 1983, SOC NATURE SOCIALIST ROIZEN J, 1985, DEGREES JOBS EMPLOYE ROSE S, 1984, NOT OUR GENES BIOL I SACK R, 1980, CONCEPTION SPACE SOC SCHUMACHER F, 1973, SMALL IS BEAUTIFUL SIMMONS IG, 1985, FUTURE GEOGRAPHY SKOLIMOWSKI H, 1981, ECOPHILOSOPHY SUGDEN D, 1978, J GEOGRAPHY HIGHER E, V2, P14 SUGDEN DE, 1979, AREA, V11, P309 UNWIN T, 1986, J GEOGR HIGHER EDUC, V10, P149 WILBANKS TJ, 1979, PROF GEOGR, V31, P1 WORSLEY P, 1979, FUTURE GEOGRAPHY NR 69 TC 3 J9 PROG HUM GEOGR BP 379 EP 404 PY 1987 PD SEP VL 11 IS 3 GA K8849 UT ISI:A1987K884900004 ER PT J AU BROCK, L TI PEACE THROUGH PARKS - THE ENVIRONMENT ON THE PEACE RESEARCH AGENDA SO JOURNAL OF PEACE RESEARCH LA English DT Article C1 UNIV FRANKFURT,INT RELAT,W-6000 FRANKFURT 1,GERMANY. RP BROCK, L, PEACE RES INST FRANKFURT,FRANKFURT,GERMANY. AB The environment has now become firmly established as an item on the agenda of peace research. However, perceptions of the interrelationship between peace and environmental issues differ widely. In order to prepare the way for systematic analysis of this interrelationship, four linkages are identified here: causal, instrumental, definitional and normative. Since environmental issues are not only to be treated as non-military threats to the security of societies, but can also work to promote cooperation and peace-building, the causal, instrumental and definitional linkages are sub-categorized as having positive and negative aspects. Environmental security is identified as a normative linkage designed to cope with the negative aspects of the other linkages. Whether this will lead to a militarization of environmental politics, or rather help to demilitarize security thinking remains an open question. The answer will depend very much on the positive aspects of the causal and instrumental linkages. Up to now, ecological cooperation has to be seen as a dependent variable reflecting the state of overall international relations. However, there are some indications that environmental cooperation may develop an Eigendynamik of its own and become an independent variable with influence of its own on world politics. CR 1989, ENV SECURITY ALBRECHT U, 1983, NATUR 0808, P102 ALBRECHT U, 1983, NATUR 0808, P50 BACHLER G, 1990, DIALOGUE, V18, P231 BARNABY F, 1976, B ATOM SCI, V32, P36 BROCKUTNE B, 1988, CULTURAL NORMS WAR E, P83 BROWN LR, 1977, 14 WORLDW I PAP BRUNDTLAND GH, 1987, OUR COMMON FUTURE BRZOSKA M, 1983, J PEACE RES, V13, P271 COLINVAUX P, 1980, FATES NATIONS BIOL T DEGER S, 1985, IDS BULL-I DEV STUD, V16, P49 DEJONNES AM, 1825, PREMIER MEMOIRE RESP DEUDNEY D, 1990, MILLENNIUM-J INT ST, V19, P461 FALK RA, 1973, B PEACE PROPOSALS, V4, P1 FALK RA, 1984, ENV WARFARE TECHNICA, P33 FALKENMARK M, 1986, GLOBAL RESOURCES INT, P85 FINGER M, 1990, 13TH GEN C INT PEAC GOLDBLAT J, 1978, WORLD ARMAMENTS DISA HERRERA AO, 1977, GRENZEN ELENDS BARIL HOLST JJ, 1989, B PEACE PROPOSALS, V20, P123 HUBER W, 1987, FRIEDEN SCHOPFUNG, P83 JANICKE M, 1979, INDUSTRIESYSTEM SEIN KRUSEWITZ K, 1985, UMWELTKRIEG MILITAR LEROY M, 1986, GLOBAL RESOURCES INT, P159 LIPSCHUTZ RD, 1990, B PEACE PROPOSALS, V21, P121 LIST M, 1990, INT REGIMES E W POLI, P90 LODGAARD S, 1990, MAR UNEP M ENV CONFL LOONEY RE, 1986, J PEACE RES, V23, P329 LUARD E, 1986, WAR INT SOC LUARD E, 1988, BLUNTED SWORD EROSIO MAYERTASCH PC, 1987, VERSEUCHTE LANDKARTE MEYERABICH KM, 1984, WEGE ZUM FRIEDEN NAT MEYERABICH KM, 1990, BILD WISSENSCHAFT, V27, P66 MISCHE P, 1989, BREAKTHROUGH, V11, P7 MOLVAER RK, 1990, B PEACE PROPOSALS, V21, P135 MUELLER J, 1989, RETREAT DOOMSDAY OBS MULLER H, 1987, SECURITY ENV REPORT, P20 MULLER H, 1989, EINFUHRUNG INT POLIT, P324 MULLER H, 1990, UMWELT KONFLIKT MYERS N, 1985, 2ND BIENN C FAT EART, P47 MYERS N, 1986, ENVIRONMENTALIST, V6, P251 NORTH R, 1984, MULTIDISCIPLINARY PE, P195 PALME O, 1982, COMMON SECURITY RENNER M, 1989, 89 WORLDW PAP RITTBERGER V, 1990, INT REGIMES E W POLI SCHRIJVER N, 1989, B PEACE PROPOSALS, V20, P115 SIEBERT H, 1990, VERGEUDETE UMWELT STEPANEK B, 1990, FRIEDENSFORSCHUNG DE, P83 THORSELL J, 1990, NAT HIST, V99, P56 THORSELL J, 1990, PARKS BORDERLINE EXP TIMOSCHENKO AS, 1989, BREAKTHROUGH, V10, P22 ULLMAN RH, 1983, INT SECURITY, V8, P129 WESTING A, 1988, J PEACE RES, V25, P257 WESTING AH, 1976, ECOLOGICAL CONSEQUEN WESTING AH, 1984, ENV WARFARE TECHNICA WESTING AH, 1986, GLOBAL RESOURCES INT NR 56 TC 10 J9 J PEACE RES BP 407 EP 423 PY 1991 PD NOV VL 28 IS 4 GA GP490 UT ISI:A1991GP49000006 ER PT J AU Ingram, JC Franco, G Rumbaitis-del Rio, C Khazai, B TI Post-disaster recovery dilemmas: challenges in balancing short-term and long-term needs for vulnerability reduction SO ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE & POLICY LA English DT Article C1 Columbia Univ, Dept Civil Engn & Engn Mech, New York, NY 10027 USA. Columbia Univ, Earth Inst, Ctr Hazards & Risk Res, New York, NY 10027 USA. AB Following disasters, governments often clamor to quickly reduce risk, rebuild communities and restore permanence. The pressure to urgently address complex, difficult decisions can result in reactive policies that may increase long-term vulnerability of affected populations. Sri Lanka in the aftermath of the 26 December 2004 tsunami represents such an example: a hastily designed coastal buffer zone policy has incited massive relocation of affected populations and resulted in social, economic and environmental problems that threaten the well-being of poor coastal communities. We review the impacts of this policy from its inception, days after the tsunami hit the island, until its revision, approximately 10 months following the disaster. We then apply a framework to conceptualize the components of vulnerability within Sri Lanka's coastal, human-environment system and to identify where post-disaster policies should focus to reduce vulnerability of coastal populations more effectively. From this analysis, it is apparent that the buffer zone policy gave disproportionate attention to reducing exposure to future tsunamis and, subsequently, did not address the critical social, economic and institutional factors that influenced sensitivity to the hazard. Post-disaster policies aimed at sustainable re-development should be informed by an analysis of the components of vulnerability that comprise a system and how these can be most effectively influenced during the separate short-term and long-term phases of rebuilding. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *GOV SRI LANK DEV, 2005, POSTTS REC REC *IUCN WORLD CONS U, 2005, 3 IUCN WORLD CONS UN *IUCN WORLD CONS U, 2005, RAP ENV SOC ASS TSUN *IUCN, 2005, 1 IUCN WORLD CONS UN *IUCN, 2005, 9 IUCN WORLD CONS UN *MIN URB DEV WAT S, 2005, ASS POL IMPL GUID *OXF, 2005, SRI LANK TSUN CHALL *WORLD BANK, 2005, TSUN REC SNAPSH ROAD ADGER WN, 2005, SCIENCE, V309, P1036 BLAIKIE PM, 1994, RISK NATURAL HAZARDS, V1, P1 BOHLE HG, 1994, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V4, P37 BURTON I, 1978, ENV HAZARD, V1, P1 CARDONA O, 2003, MAPPING VULNERABILIT, CH3 CHARNY J, 2005, SRI LANKA TSUNAMI SU COMFORT LK, 2005, ANNU REV POLIT SCI, V8, P335 DAHDOUHGUEBAS F, 2005, CURR BIOL, V15, P1337 DEGG MR, 2005, GEOGR J 2, V171, P125 FERNANDO HJS, 2005, EOS, V86, P301 FERNANDO HSJ, 2005, EOS, V86, P304 FUSSEL HM, 2006, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V75, P301 HARRIS S, 2005, FORCED MIGR REV, P34 HETTIARACHCHI SSL, 2005, P I CIVIL ENG-MAR EN, V158, P25 JAYASURIYA S, 2005, 39 U MELB I POL STUD KHAZAI B, 2006, EARTHQ SPECTRA, V22, S829 LIU PLF, 2005, SCIENCE, V308, P1595 LUTHRA D, 2005, SRI LANKAS SLOW TSUN LUTHRA D, 2005, TSUNAMI SHADOW SRI L MASKREY A, 1989, DEV GUIDELINES MILETI DS, 1999, DISASTERS DESIGN REA MILLER G, 2005, SCIENCE, V309, P1030 PELLING M, 2003, VULNERABILITY CITIES PREUSS J, 1983, TSUNAMIS THEIR SCI E, P527 RICE A, 2005, POSTTSUNAMI RECONSTR SAMARASINGHE J, 2005, COMMUNICATION SHANMUGARATNAM N, 2005, TSUNAMI VICTIMS PERC STOMS DM, 2005, FRONT ECOL ENVIRON, V3, P429 TURNER BL, 2003, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V100, P8074 NR 37 TC 0 J9 ENVIRON SCI POLICY BP 607 EP 613 PY 2006 PD NOV-DEC VL 9 IS 7-8 GA 114WS UT ISI:000242696900002 ER PT J AU Sutherst, RW Collyer, BS Yonow, T TI The vulnerability of Australian horticulture to the Queensland fruit fly, Bactrocera (Dacus) tryoni, under climate change SO AUSTRALIAN JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL RESEARCH LA English DT Article C1 CSIRO Entomol, Long Pocket Labs, CRC Trop Pest Management, Indooroopilly, Qld 4068, Australia. RP Sutherst, RW, CSIRO Entomol, Long Pocket Labs, CRC Trop Pest Management, PMB 3, Indooroopilly, Qld 4068, Australia. AB The vulnerability of horticultural industries in Australia to the Queensland fruit fly Bactrocera (Dacus) tryoni under climate change is examined. Vulnerability is defined in terms of sensitivity and adaptation options. Regional estimates of fruit fly density are fed into an economic model that takes account of costs of damage, management, regulation and research. Sensitivity analyses are used to estimate potential future costs under climate change by recalculating costs with increases in temperature of 0.5 degrees C, 1.0 degrees C and 2 degrees C. It is assumed that irrigation will automatically compensate for any changes in rainfall. The current national, annual cost of Queensland fruit fly is estimated to be $AU28.5 million/year ($25.7-49.9 million), with 60% of the cost borne by commercial growers. Climatic warming threatens the sustainability of area freedom in the Fruit Fly Exclusion Zone (FFEZ) and is likely to increase damage and control costs to commercial growers in endemic areas, except in northern Australia. Costs to mainland apple, orange, and pear growers are estimated to increase by $3.1, $4.7, and $12.0 million with increases of 0.5 degrees C, 1.0 degrees C, and 2 degrees C, respectively. These represent increases of 25%, 38%, and 95%, respectively, but do not reflect the greatly increased risks of failure to maintain area freedom in the FFEZ. Growers in endemic Queensland fruit fly areas can expect their costs to increase 42-82%, compared with 24-83% in the FFEZ. Increased damage to backyard growers is likely, especially in South Australia and Victoria. Thus the fly poses a real threat to southern States under modest projected increases in temperatures. The extent of the likely cost increases raises questions about the industries' ability to pay and remain competitive. The current analysis illustrates the potential benefits of taking a national and strategic approach to the management of insect pests in Australia. A combination of CLIMEX modelling, sensitivity analysis and mapping provided valuable insights into both industry and regional vulnerabilities. Adaptation options require further quantification, but that awaits a credible population model of Queensland fruit fly. Costs need to be discounted, depending on the expected timing of the temperature increases. CR 1975, CLIMATIC AVERAGES AU 1993, PROPOSAL ESTABLISH F 1994, SCARM FRUIT FLY WORK 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE SCENA *ABS, 1996, OUTL 96 *ABS, 1997, OUTL 96 *HORT POL COUNC, 1991, IMP FRUIT FLIES AUST *IPCC, 1996, CONTRIBUTION WORKING ADAMSON D, 1988, P BIOEC WORKSH POSTA COLQUHOUN E, 1998, CT97024 HRDC HOCKING D, 1994, SCARM FRUIT FLY WORK HUTCHINSON MF, 1989, 895 CSIRO DIV WAT RE, P95 HUTCHINSON MF, 1991, HYDROL PROCESS, V5, P45 NORTON GA, 1976, AGRO-ECOSYSTEMS, V3, P27 PARRY ML, 1998, CLIMATE IMPACT ADAPT PARSONS PA, 1989, AMBIO, V18, P322 SOUTHWOOD TRE, 1973, INSECTS STUDIES POPU, P168 SUTHERST RW, 1995, INSECTS CHANGING ENV SUTHERST RW, 1996, GREENHOUSE COPING CL, P281 SUTHERST RW, 1998, INT J PARASITOL, V28, P935 SUTHERST RW, 1998, PARASITOL TODAY, V14, P297 VANVELSEN RJ, 1987, REV FRUIT FLY CAMPAI VICKERS RA, 1994, NATL STRATEGY FRUIT WORTHINGTON M, 1995, OUTLOOK, V95, P253 YONOW T, 1998, AUST J AGR RES, V49, P935 NR 25 TC 3 J9 AUST J AGR RES BP 467 EP 480 PY 2000 VL 51 IS 4 GA 309QP UT ISI:000086780800006 ER PT J AU Ford, JD Smit, B TI A framework for assessing the vulnerability of communities in the Canadian arctic to risks associated with climate change SO ARCTIC LA English DT Article C1 Univ Guelph, Dept Geog, Guelph, ON N1G 2W1, Canada. RP Ford, JD, Univ Guelph, Dept Geog, Guelph, ON N1G 2W1, Canada. AB Adaptation to climate change is recognized as an important policy issue by international bodies such as the United Nations and by various national governments. Initiatives to identify adaptation needs and to improve adaptive capacity increasingly start with an assessment of the vulnerability of the system of interest, in terms of who and what are vulnerable, to what stresses, in what way, and what capacity exists to adapt to changing risks. Notwithstanding the scholarship on climate change itself, there are few studies on the nature of Arctic communities' vulnerability to climate-change risks. We review existing literature on implications of climate change for Arctic communities, develop a conceptual model of vulnerability, and present an analytical approach to assessing climate hazards and coping strategies in Arctic communities. Vulnerability is conceptualized as a function of exposure to climatic stresses and the adaptive capacity to cope with these stresses. The analytical framework employs place-specific case studies involving community residents and integrates information from multiple sources, both to document current exposures and adaptations and to characterize future exposures and adaptive capacity. 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NASA, Ames Res Ctr, Moffett Field, CA 94035 USA. Univ Tokyo, Grad Sch Agr & Life Sci, Bunkyo Ku, Tokyo 113, Japan. RP Milesi, C, Univ Montana, Dept Ecosyst & Conservat Sci, Numer Terradynam Simulat Grp, Missoula, MT 59812 USA. AB Human domination of ecosystems has been pervasive over the last century, with nearly half of Earth's surface transformed by human actions. it is widely accepted that humans appropriate up to 50% of global net primary production (NPP), the energy base of all the trophic levels on the land surface. Yet, despite the important role of vegetation productivity for defining Earth habitability, the covariation of NPP and human population distribution has not been analyzed in depth. We used recently available satellite-based NPP estimates, along with gridded population at 0.5 degrees resolution, first, to identify the global distribution of human population with reference to average NPP and to the various climatic constraints (temperature, water and cloud cover) that limit NPP, second, to analyze recent trends in global NPP in relation to population trends, and third, to identify populations that are vulnerable to changes in NPP due to interannual variability in climate. Our results indicate that over half of the global human population is presently living in areas with above the average NPP of 490 g C m(-2) year(-1). By 1998, nearly 56% of global population lived in regions where water availability strongly influences NPP. Per capita NPP declined over much of Africa between 1982 and 1998, in spite of the estimated increases in NPP over the same period. On average, NPP over 40% of the total vegetated land surface has shown significant correlations with ENSO-induced climate variability affecting over 2.8 billion people. (c) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 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P, 1993, RISK ANAL, V13, P675 SLOVIC P, 2001, PERCEPTION RISK STARR C, 1969, SCIENCE, V165, P1232 STOFFLE R, 2003, IN PRESS HUMAN ORG TENNER E, 1996, WHY THINGS BITE BACK TIBI B, 2001, ISLAM CULTURE POLITI TVERSKY A, 1974, SCIENCE, V185, P1124 VISCUSI WK, 1993, J POLIT ECON, V101, P161 VISCUSI WK, 1998, RATIONAL RISK POLICY VISCUSI WK, 2000, J LEGAL STUD 2, V29, P843 VOGEL D, IN PRESS BRIT J POLI VOGEL D, 1995, TRADING UP CONSUMER VOGEL D, 1998, BARRIERS BENEFITS RE WEBER S, 2000, 140 BRIE WESTLEY F, 1995, BARRIERS BRIDGES REN, P391 WESTLEY F, 2002, PANARCHY UNDERSTANDI, P333 WIENER JB, 2002, J RISK RES, V5, P317 WYNNE B, 1992, SOCIAL THEORIES RISK, P275 WYNNE B, 1996, RISK ENV MODERNITY N, P44 YERGIN D, 1998, COMMANDING HEIGHTS YUNUS M, 1999, BANKER POOR MICROLEN ZIJDERVELD A, 1992, ABSTRACT SOC CULTURA NR 123 TC 0 J9 J RISK RES BP 343 EP + PY 2003 PD JUL VL 6 IS 4-6 GA 709GL UT ISI:000184617400003 ER PT J AU Wilhite, DA TI Drought planning and risk assessment: Status and future directions SO ANNALS OF ARID ZONE LA English DT Article C1 Univ Nebraska, Natl Drought Mitigat Ctr, Lincoln, NE 68583 USA. RP Wilhite, DA, Univ Nebraska, Natl Drought Mitigat Ctr, Lincoln, NE 68583 USA. AB Although drought is a normal, recurring feature of climate, little progress has been made in drought management in most parts of the world. The progress in drought planning that has been achieved in some countries and regions can be useful for other drought-prone regions. In this paper, a drought planning process, originally developed in 1991 for state-level government in the United States, is suggested as a model for governments at various levels to follow in the development of a drought plan. The process, which emphasizes risk management rather than crisis management, is based on the three primary components of a drought plan: monitoring and early warning; risk and impact assessment; and mitigation and response. The steps in the process are generic and easily adaptable to all drought-prone regions. CR *DEP CONST DEV, 1999, WHIT PAP DIS MAN *FEMA, 1995, NAT MIT STRAT *OFF FOR DIS ASS, 1990, ANN REP *SADCC, 1992, FOOD SEC B *UN, 1986, COUNTRIES STRICKEN D *UNDP UNSO, 2000, REP STAT DROUGHT PRE, V1 BENSON C, 1998, 402 WORLD BANK BENSON C, 2000, DROUGHT GLOBAL ASSES, V1, P287 BLAIKIE PM, 1994, RISK NATURAL HAZARDS, V1, P1 BRUINS HJ, 1998, ARID FRONTIER INTERA, P97 CAROLWICZ M, 1996, EOS, V77, P149 GLANTZ MH, 1987, DROUGHT HUNGER AFRIC HAGMAN G, 1984, PREVENTION BETTER CU KECK A, 1994, WATER SUPPLY VARIABI KNUTSON C, 1998, REDUCE DROUGHT RISK SUBBIAH AR, 1993, DROUGHT ASSESSMENT M, P157 WILHELMI OV, 1999, THESIS U NEBRASKA LI WILHITE DA, 1985, WATER INT, V10, P111 WILHITE DA, 1991, WATER RESOUR BULL, V27, P29 WILHITE DA, 1992, ENCY EARTH SYSTEM SC, V2, P81 WILHITE DA, 1992, PREPARING DROUGHT GU WILHITE DA, 1996, NAT HAZARDS, V13, P229 WILHITE DA, 1997, J AM WATER RESOUR AS, V33, P961 WILHITE DA, 1999, METHODOLOGY DROUGHT WILHITE DA, 2000, DROUGHT GLOBAL ASSES, V1 WILHITE DA, 2000, DROUGHT GLOBAL ASSES, V1, P245 WILHITE DA, 2000, DROUGHT GLOBAL ASSES, V2 WILHITE DA, 2000, DROUGHT GLOBAL ASSES, V2, P89 NR 28 TC 0 J9 ANN ARID ZONE BP 211 EP 230 PY 2000 PD SEP VL 39 IS 3 GA 484WH UT ISI:000171712200001 ER PT J AU Hadorn, GH Bradley, D Pohl, C Rist, S Wiesmann, U TI Implications of transdisciplinarity for sustainability research SO ECOLOGICAL ECONOMICS LA English DT Article C1 ETH, Dept Environm Sci, CH-8092 Zurich, Switzerland. Univ Konstanz, Dept Philosophy, D-7750 Constance, Germany. Univ Oxford, Dept Zool, Oxford OX1 2JD, England. Univ London London Sch Hyg & Trop Med, Dept Infect & Trop Dis, London WC1E 7HT, England. Swiss Acad Sci, Td Net, CH-3007 Bern, Switzerland. Univ Bern, CDE, CH-3008 Bern, Switzerland. RP Hadorn, GH, ETH, Dept Environm Sci, CH-8092 Zurich, Switzerland. AB in ecological economics the terms sustainable development and transdisciplinarity are closely related. It is shown that this close relation is due to the fact that research for sustainable development has to be issue oriented and reflect the diversity, complexity and dynamics of the processes involved as well as their variability between specific problem situations. Furthermore, the knowledge of people involved and their needs and interests at stake have to be taken into account. There are three basic and interrelated questions about issues to be addressed in sustainability research: (1) In which way do processes constitute a problem field and where are the needs for change? (2) What are more sustainable practices? (3) How can existing practices be transformed? To treat them properly, transdisciplinary research is needed. The emergence of transdisciplinary research in the North and the South is described. By distinguishing analytically among basic, applied and transdisciplinary research the challenges that have to be tackled in transdisciplinary projects are analyzed. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 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RP Foster, GD, Natl Def Univ, Ind Coll Armed Forces, Washington, DC 20319 USA. AB Environmental security-the intersection of environmental conditions and security affairs-is a subject that increasingly demands the attention of those concerned with relations between the armed forces and society. It is at the heart of new, more comprehensive post-Cold War conceptions of security that could fundamentally redefine the essence of military establishments. It is also central to societal well-being and the attendant public trust and confidence in the institutions of government that ultimately determine the efficacy of the state. There is growing acceptance today of the link between the environment and security. However, two issues continue to divide scholars and practitioners alike and thereby undermine the legitimacy of the subject: the definition of the phrase and the causal relationship between the environment and security. Definitionally, the very nature of the subject forces a new degree of attention to the linkage between individual (human) security and national, regional, and global security. On the other hand, the suggestion that conflict may be caused-or at least prefigured-by environmental conditions lies at the heart of most disagreements on the subject and thus on its integral importance to the field of security affairs. What seems clear is that environmental conditions must be viewed in conjunction with associated economic and political factors. It may turn out that there is a masking phenomenon at work by which ostensibly political and economic precipitants of violence and unrest actually mask underlying environmental sources of discontent. By the same token, increasing attention must be given to autocatalytic events (such as natural disasters) that feed and feed off environmental degradation. Recognizing the existence and prevalence of these sorts of conditions and relationships is a challenge that will test the intellectual mettle of analysts and policymakers in the world that lies before us. 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RP Liu, SK, Syst Res Inst, 3706 Ocean Hill Way, Malibu, CA 90265 USA. AB Coastal numerical models have been used successfully for many marine analyses as well as for practical engineering applications. When a model is adjusted and verified for a particular coastal region, it may also be used for predicting potential impact due to sea level rise for that region. Applications include coastal flood risk analysis, alteration of long-term coastal sediment transport direction, and possible impact on the ecosystem due to changes in the coastal circulation pattern induced by the rise of mean sea level. This paper presents some examples for such applications including storm surge and near-shore tidal residual circulation patterns due to sea level rise. The paper presents a brief background discussion on the coastal hydrodynamic process A three-dimensional numerical model of the China Sea is used as an example for the analyses. Results from the numerical experiment indicate sea level rise may induce long-term changes in the near-shove tidal circulation patterns resulted from the alteration of residual currents, Rise in sea level would also cause more areas to he flooded due to storm surge. Existing sea walls and dikes designed for 100 year storm would be exposed to higher risks in the face of rising mean sea level. Modeling results would provide coastal designers and managers useful tools for developing vulnerability assessments and adaptation strategies. As an example the paper presents some coastal flood risk analyses in which numerical modeling is combined with statistical typhoon landfall data over the China Sea coast. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. CR LIU SK, 1978, ADV HYDROSCIENCES LIU SK, 1988, 3 DIMENSIONAL MODEL LIU SK, 1991, 5389DOCNOAA RAND LIU SK, 1993, 3 DIMENSIONAL MODELI LIU SK, 1995, 843001 MIN COMM TRAN LIU SK, 1995, 84ECA371005 MIN EC A NR 6 TC 0 J9 OCEAN COAST MANAGE BP 85 EP 94 PY 1997 VL 37 IS 1 GA ZM705 UT ISI:000073567600007 ER PT J AU WARRICK, RA RIEBSAME, WE TI SOCIETAL RESPONSE TO CO-2-INDUCED CLIMATE CHANGE - OPPORTUNITIES FOR RESEARCH SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Review C1 CLARK UNIV,CTR TECHNOL ENVIRONM & DEV,CLIMATE & SOC RES GRP,WORCESTER,MA 01610. RP WARRICK, RA, NATL CTR ATMOSPHER RES,BOULDER,CO 80307. 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PERSPEC WHITE GF, 1961, NAT RESOUR J, V1, P23 WHITE GF, 1966, ENV QUALITY GROWING WHITE GF, 1969, STRATEGIES AM WATER WHITE GF, 1973, DIRECTIONS GEOGRAPHY WHITE GF, 1974, NATURAL HAZARDS LOCA WHITE GF, 1975, ASSESSMENT RES NATUR, V1, P1 WHYTE I, 1981, CONSEQUENCES CLIMATI, P17 WISNER B, 1978, THESIS CLARK U WORSTER D, 1979, DUST BOWL SO GREAT P WRIGHT JD, 1979, CLEANUP LONG RANGE E YEVJEVICH V, 1978, DROUGHT RES NEEDS NR 146 TC 10 J9 CLIMATIC CHANGE BP 387 EP 428 PY 1981 VL 3 IS 4 GA MW757 UT ISI:A1981MW75700003 ER PT J AU Gay, C Estrada, F Conde, C Eakin, H Villers, L TI Potential impacts of climate change on agriculture: A case of study of coffee production in Veracruz, Mexico SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 UNAM, Ctr Ciencias Atmosfera, Mexico City 04510, DF, Mexico. RP Gay, C, UNAM, Ctr Ciencias Atmosfera, Circuito Exterior, Mexico City 04510, DF, Mexico. AB This paper explores the relation between coffee production and climatic and economic variables in Veracruz in order to estimate the potential impacts of climate change. For this purpose, an econometric model is developed in terms of those variables. The model is validated by means of statistical analysis, and then used to project coffee production under different climatic conditions. Climate change scenarios are produced considering that the observed trends of climate variables will continue to prevail until the year 2020. An approach for constructing simple probability scenarios for future climate variability is presented and used to assess possible impacts of climate change beyond what is expected from changes in mean values. The model shows that temperature is the most relevant climatic factor for coffee production, since production responds significantly to seasonal temperature patterns. The results for the projected climate change conditions for year 2020 indicate that coffee production might not be economically viable for producers, since the model indicates a reduction of 34% of the current production. Although different economic variables (the state and international coffee prices, a producer price index for raw materials for coffee benefit, the national and the USA coffee stocks) were considered as potentially relevant, our model suggests that the state real minimum wage could be regarded as the most important economic variable. Real minimum wage is interpreted here as a proxy for the price of labor employed for coffee production. This activity in Mexico is very labor intensive representing up to 80% of coffee production costs. As expected, increments in the price of such an important production factor increase production costs and have strong negative effects on production. Different assumptions on how real minimum wage could evolve for the year 2020 are considered for developing future production scenarios. CR RED SOCIAL STUDIES N *AS NAT, 2000, AGR ORG TROP SUBTR C *ASERCA, 2002, CAF MEX REV CLAR AGR *CONS MEX CAF SECR, 1996, GAN DES RUR *CONS MEX CAF SECR, 2001, GAN DES RUR *GOB EST VER, 2001, TERC INF GOB MIG AL *IPCC, 2001, CONTR WORK GROUP 2 3, P1032 *TECHNOSERVE, 2003, DEV SOL CHALL COFF I AGGARWAL PK, 2005, IMPACT CLIMATE CHANG AVILA J, 2001, PROBLEMAS DESARROLLO, V32, P189 BARTRA A, 1999, JORNADA CAMPO, P1 BRAVO JL, 2005, UNPUB COMPORTAMIENTO CASTELLANOS E, 2003, COFFEE CRISIS MEXICO, P20 CASTILLO G, 1997, 8 INIFAP DIV AGR, P90 CHANG CC, 2002, AGR ECON, V27, P51 CONDE C, 1997, CLIMATE RES, V9, P17 CONDE C, 1999, IMPACTOS EL NINO MEX, P103 CONDE C, 2003, CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPT CONDE C, 2003, REUN OP M HUM DIM GL CONDE C, 2003, THESIS UNAM CONDE C, 2005, AIACC SYNTHESIS VULN DOUGLAS A, 1993, MEXICAN TEMPERATURE, P13 EAKIN H, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P19 EAKIN H, 2003, WORKSH REP INT ASS S GAY C, 1995, MEMORIAS PRIMER TALL GAY C, 1996, MEMORIAS SEGUNDO TAL GAY C, 2000, MEXICO UNA VISION HA GAY C, 2002, INTEGRATED ASSESSMEN GUJARATI D, 2003, BASIC ECONOMETRICS KAUFMANN RK, 1997, AM J AGR ECON, V79, P178 LIVERMAN DM, 1991, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V1, P351 MAGANA AJ, 1999, AM METE SOC, V12, P1577 MAGANA V, 1997, CLIMATE RES, V9, P107 MAGANA V, 1999, IMPACTOS EL NINO MEX, P228 MENDOZA VM, 1997, CLIM RES, P139 MORALES T, 1999, 11 C APPL MET AM MET, P262 NOLASCO M, 1985, CAFE SOC MEXICO, P455 OBRIEN KL, 2000, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V10, P221 PEREZ M, 2005, JORNADA, P6 SAHARREA FA, 2003, CAFE MEXICO SMIT B, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 VILLERSRUIZ L, 1997, CLIMATE RES, V9, P87 NR 42 TC 0 J9 CLIMATIC CHANGE BP 259 EP 288 PY 2006 PD DEC VL 79 IS 3-4 GA 110DX UT ISI:000242359600007 ER PT J AU BUTZER, KW TI CULTURAL-ADAPTATION - A METHOD FOR DIACHRONIC STUDY OF HUMAN ECOSYSTEMS SO GEOGRAPHISCHE ZEITSCHRIFT LA German DT Article C1 UNIV CHICAGO,DEPT GEOG,CHICAGO,IL 60637. 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UN Environm Program, Reg Seas Programme, Nairobi, Kenya. WWF S Pacific, Boroko, Papua N Guinea. WWF Fiji, Suva, Fiji. Coastal Management Program, Pago Pago, AS 96799 USA. Environm Protect Author, Majuro 96960, MH, Marshall Island. Wildlife Conserva Soc, Goroka, Papua N Guinea. Dept Econ Afffairs, Palikir 96941, FM, Micronesia. Primary Resources Consulting Co, Port Vila, Vanuatu. Palau Conservat Soc, Koror 96940, PW, Palau. Minist Environm Land & Agr Dev, Bikenibeu, Tarawa, Kiribati. Dept Environm, Nukualofa, Tonga. Commonwealth No Mariana Isl Coastal Resources Man, Saipan, CM 96950 USA. RP Gilman, EL, Sch Geog & Environm Studies, Locked Bag 1-376, Launceston, Tas 7250, Australia. AB Stresses associated with effects of climate change, including rise in relative mean sea level, present one set of threats to mangroves. Coastal development and ecosystems in the Pacific Islands region are particularly vulnerable to climate change effects. We investigated the capacity of Pacific Island countries and territories to assess mangrove vulnerability to the effects of climate change, and their capacity to adapt to mangrove responses to these forces. Technical and institutional capacity-building priorities include: (1) strengthening management frameworks to conduct site-specific assessment of mangrove vulnerability and incorporate resulting information into land-use plans to prepare for any landward mangrove migration and offsetting anticipated losses; (2) reducing and eliminating stresses on and rehabilitating mangroves, in part, to increase mangrove resilience to climate change effects; and (3) augmenting abilities to establish mangrove baselines, and monitor gradual changes using standardized techniques through a regional network to distinguish local and climate change effects on mangroves. Other priorities are to: (4) assess how mangrove margins have changed over recent decades; (5) determine projections of trends in mean relative sea level and trends in the frequency and elevation of extreme high water events; (6) measure trends in changes in elevations of mangrove surfaces; and (7) incorporate this information into land-use planning processes. Also in (8) some locations require spatial imagery showing topography and locations of mangroves and coastal development. Land-use planners can use information from assessments predicting shoreline responses to projected sea level rise and other climate change effects to reduce risks to coastal development, human safety, and coastal ecosystems. This advanced planning enables coastal managers to minimize social disruption and cost, minimize losses of valued coastal ecosystems, and maximize available options. CR 1999, 1 NAT COMM UN FRAM C 1999, VAN NAT COMM C PART *FED STAT MICR, 1997, 1997 CLIM CHANG NAT *GOV SAM, 1999, FIRST NAT COMM REP U *GOV TUV, 1999, TUV IN NAT COMM UN F *KING TONG, 2005, IN NAT COMM RESP COM *KIR GOV, 1999, INT COMM C *PAP NEW GUIN GOV, 2000, INT NAT COMM UN FRAM *RAM SEC, 2001, WETL VAL FUNCT CLIM *RAMS SEC, 1999, 193 COP7 DOC *REP MARSH ISL ENV, 2000, INT COMM UN FRAM *REP PAP OFF ENV R, 2002, 1 COMM UN FRAM C CLI *SEC PAC REG ENV P, 2003, CAP BUILD DEV AD MEA *SO PAC SEA LEV CL, 2001, PREC MON CONT GLOB P *SOL ISL GOV, 2004, IN NAT COMM UN FRAM *SOPAC, 2003, FUT DIR ENV VULN IND *SPREP, 1999, ACT STRAT NAT CONS P *SPREP, 1999, REG WETL ACT PLAN PA *SPREP, 2000, ADAPTING CLIMATE CHA ALLEN JA, 1998, GLOBAL ECOL BIOGEOGR, V7, P61 ALLENG GP, 1998, J COASTAL RES, V14, P951 CAHOON DR, 2002, J SEDIMENT RES, V72, P734 CHURCH J, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, P693 CHURCH J, 2004, COAST COAST 04 C P, P16 CHURCH JA, 2004, J CLIMATE, V17, P2609 DELAUNE RD, 1978, NATURE, V275, P532 DIXON JA, 1990, EC PROTECTED AREAS ELLISON J, 1999, MARINE COASTAL BIODI, V2, P3 ELLISON J, 2001, SEA LEVEL CHANGES TH, P289 ELLISON J, 2004, VULNERABILITY FIJIS ELLISON JC, 1991, J COASTAL RES, V7, P151 ELLISON JC, 1993, ESTUAR COAST SHELF S, V37, P75 ELLISON JC, 2000, CLIMATE CHANGE S PAC, P289 FLETCHER CH, 1997, J COASTAL RES, V13, P209 GILMAN E, IN PRESS ENV MONIT A GILMAN E, 2002, OCEAN COAST MANAGE, V45, P377 GILMAN E, 2004, UNESCO WORLD HER CTR GILMAN E, 2005, TRENDS FREQUENCY ELE GILMAN EL, 1998, COAST MANAGE, V26, P253 GILMAN EL, 1999, INT PERSPECTIVE WETL, P3 HOLGATE SJ, 2004, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V31 HOUGHTON J, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 JOHANNES RE, 1982, AMBIO, V11, P258 KOMAR P, 1998, BEACH PROCESSES SEDI KOMAR PD, 1991, J COASTAL RES, V7, P895 KRAUSS KW, 2003, ESTUAR COAST SHELF S, V54, P251 LEE WG, 1983, NEW ZEAL J BOT, V21, P231 LEWIS RR, 1992, P NATL WETL S PALM B, P101 LEWIS RR, 2005, ECOL ENG, V24, P403 LYNCH JC, 1989, ESTUARIES, V12, P284 MCLEAN RF, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, P343 MIMURA N, 1998, J COASTAL RES, V14, P37 MULLANE R, 1997, BEACH MANAGEMENT PLA NURSE L, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, P843 PHILLIPS B, 2000, P APMM SURVAS LOICZ ROGERS K, 2005, ESTUARIES, V28, P551 SAINTILAN N, 2001, WETLANDS ECOLOGY MAN, V9, P409 SMITH CR, 2005, RECOLONIZATION SUCCE SNEDAKER SC, 1993, CLIMATIC CHANGE INTR, P282 SOLOMON S, 1997, P 1997 CAN COAST C C SPALDING MD, 1997, WOLD MANGROVE ATLAS TITUS JG, 1991, ENVIRON MANAGE, V15, P39 WHITE A, 1994, COLLABORATIVE COMMUN WOODROFFE CD, 1995, EARTH SURF PROCESSES, V20, P65 WOODWORTH PL, 2002, INT J CLIMATOL, V22, P697 WOODWORTH PL, 2004, J CLIMATE, V17, P1190 YUNCKER TG, 1943, B P BISHOP MUSEUM B, V178, P1 NR 67 TC 0 J9 CLIMATE RES BP 161 EP 176 PY 2006 PD OCT 26 VL 32 IS 3 GA 125CQ UT ISI:000243419500001 ER PT J AU Newburn, D Reed, S Berck, P Merenlender, A TI Economics and land-use change in prioritizing private land conservation SO CONSERVATION BIOLOGY LA English DT Article C1 Univ Calif Berkeley, Dept Agr & Resource Econ, Berkeley, CA 94720 USA. Univ Calif Berkeley, Dept Environm Sci Policy & Management, Berkeley, CA 94720 USA. RP Newburn, D, Univ Calif Berkeley, Dept Agr & Resource Econ, 207 Giannini Hall, Berkeley, CA 94720 USA. AB Incentive-based strategies such as conservation easements and short-term management agreements are popular tools for conserving biodiversity on private lands. Billions of dollars are spent by government and private conservation organizations to support land conservation. Although much of conservation biology focuses on reserve design, these methods are often ineffective at optimizing the protection of biological benefits for conservation programs. Our review of the recent literature on protected-area planning identifies some of the reasons why. We analyzed the site-selection process according to three important components. biological benefits, land costs, and likelihood of land-use change. We compared our benefit-loss-cost targeting approach with more conventional strategies that omit or inadequately address either land costs or likelihood of land-use change. Our proposed strategy aims to minimize the; expected loss in biological benefit due to future land-use conversion while considering the full or partial costs of land acquisition.. The implicit positive correlation between the likelihood of land-use conversion and cost of land protection means high-vulnerability sites with suitable land quality are typically more expensive than low-vulnerability sites with poor land quality. Therefore, land-use change and land costs need to be addressed jointly to improve spatial targeting strategies for land conservation, This approach can be extended effectively to land trusts and other institutions implementing conservation programs. 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WHO, CH-1211 Geneva, Switzerland. RP Haines, A, London Sch Hyg & Trop Med, Keppel St, London WC1E 7HT, England. AB It is now widely accepted that climate change is occurring as a result of the accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere arising from the combustion of fossil fuels. Climate change may affect health through a range of pathways, for example as a result of increased frequency and intensity of heat waves, reduction in cold related deaths, increased floods and droughts, changes in the distribution of vector-borne diseases and effects on the risk of disasters and malnutrition. The overall balance of effects on health is likely to be negative and populations in low-income countries are likely to be particularly vulnerable to the adverse effects. The experience of the 2003 heat wave in Europe shows that high-income countries may also be adversely affected. Adaptation to climate change requires public health strategies and improved surveillance. Mitigation of climate change by reducing the use of fossil fuels and increasing a number of uses of the renewable energy technologies should improve health in the near-term by reducing exposure to air pollution. (c) 2006 The Royal Institute of Public Health. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 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Univ Oslo, CICERO Ctr Int Climate & Environm Res, NO-0317 Oslo, Norway. Univ E Anglia, Sch Dev Studies, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. Univ E Anglia, Climat Res Unit, Sch Environm Sci, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. RP Eriksen, SH, Univ Oslo, Dept Sociol & Human Geog, POB 1096 Blindern, NO-0317 Oslo, Norway. AB We investigate how smallholder farmers at two sites in Kenya and Tanzania cope with climate stress and how constraints and opportunities shape variations in coping strategies between households and over time during a drought. On the basis of this analysis, we draw out implications for adaptation and adaptive policy. We find that households where an individual was able to specialize in one favoured activity, such as employment or charcoal burning, in the context of overall diversification by the household, were often less vulnerable than households where each individual is engaged in many activities at low intensity. Many households had limited access to the favoured coping options due to a lack of skill, labour and/or capital. This lack of access was compounded by social relations that led to exclusion of certain groups, especially women, from carrying out favoured activities with sufficient intensity. These households instead carried out a mulitude of less favoured and frequently complementary activities, such as collecting indigenous fruit. While characterized by suitability to seasonal environmental variations and low demands on time and cash investments, these strategies often yielded marginal returns. Both the marginalization of local niche products and the commercialization of forest resources exemplify processes leading to differential vulnerability. We suggest that vulnerability can usefully be viewed in terms of the interaction of such processes, following the concept of locality. We argue that coping is a distinct component of vulnerability and that understanding the dynamism of coping and vulnerability is critical to developing adaptation measures that support people as active agents. 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RP Pielke, RA, Colorado State Univ, Dept Atmospher Sci, Ft Collins, CO 80523 USA. AB This essay discusses several issues that have been overlooked in the U.S. National and IPCC assessments. These include the effect on the climate system of anthropogenic land-use change, and the biological influence of enhanced concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide. Evidence is presented to demonstrate the important role of these human disturbances to the earth's climate. Several hypotheses are proposed to test which are based on our research results. These include whether human-caused landscape change has an effect at all time scales on local, regional, and global climate that is at least as important as currently expected to be caused by the radiative effect of the anthropogenic doubling of the effective greenhouse gas concentrations. In addition, since landscape (and other atmosphere-surface) interactions involve complex, nonlinear feedbacks, accurate prediction of climate variables beyond seasonal time scales may not be possible. As an alternate paradigm, a vulnerability assessment approach is proposed in which the entire spectrum of environmental stresses are evaluated in order to determine the greatest threats to specific resources. CR 1999, NEWSLETTER CSIRO *U E ANGL CLIM RES, 1997, CLIM IMP LINK AVISSAR R, 1995, REV GEOPHYS, V33, P1005 CHASE TN, 1996, J GEOPHYS RES-ATMOS, V101, P7393 CHASE TN, 2000, CLIM DYNAM, V16, P93 CLAUSSEN M, 2001, UNPUB VEGETATION WAT COTTON WR, 1995, HUMAN IMPACTS WEATHE, P288 EASTMAN JL, 2001, IN PRESS GLOBAL CHAN EUGSTER W, 2000, GLOB CHANGE BIOL S1, V6, P84 GRASSO L, 1996, THESIS COLO STATE, P151 GUPTA V, 2000, EOS, V81, P484 HARVEY LDD, 2000, GLOBAL WARMING HARD, P336 KLEIN GK, 2001, IN PRESS GLOBAL BIOG LANDSEA CW, 2000, B AM METEOROL SOC, V81, P2107 LU L, 1999, 687 COL STAT U DEP A, P134 LU LX, 2001, J CLIMATE, V14, P900 MOORE B, 2000, IGBP NEWSLETTER, V41, P1 PETSCHELHELD G, 1999, ENVIRON MODEL ASSESS, V4, P295 PIELKE RA, 1997, ECOL APPL, V7, P3 PIELKE RA, 1998, B AM METEOROL SOC, V79, P2743 PIELKE RA, 1998, GLOB CHANGE BIOL, V4, P461 PIELKE RA, 1998, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V8, P159 PIELKE RA, 1999, IGBP GLOBAL CHANGE N, V39, P21 PIELKE RA, 1999, INTEGRATING HYDROLOG, P105 PIELKE RA, 1999, J GEOPHYS RES-ATMOS, V104, P19463 PIELKE RA, 1999, MON WEATHER REV, V127, P1663 PIELKE RA, 2001, NATURE, V410, P151 PIELKE RA, 2001, REV GEOPHYS, V39, P151 PITMAN A, 1999, IGBP GLOBAL CHANGE N, V39, P4 RODHE H, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V44, P409 SAREWITZ D, 2000, ATLANTIC MONTHLY, V286, P55 SAREWITZ D, 2000, PREDICTION DECISION, P400 SCHELLNHUBER HJ, 1997, GAIA, V6, P19 SHAW BL, 1997, MON WEATHER REV, V125, P1489 VITOUSEK PM, 1997, SCIENCE, V277, P494 ZIEGLER CL, 1997, MON WEATHER REV, V125, P1001 NR 36 TC 7 J9 CLIMATIC CHANGE BP 1 EP 11 PY 2002 PD JAN VL 52 IS 1-2 GA 497HA UT ISI:000172448300001 ER PT J AU Morss, RE Wilhelmi, OV Downton, MW Gruntfest, E TI Flood risk, uncertainty, and scientific information for decision making - Lessons from an interdisciplinary project SO BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY LA English DT Article C1 Natl Ctr Atmospher Res, MMM, ESIG, Boulder, CO 80307 USA. Univ Colorado, Colorado Springs, CO 80907 USA. RP Morss, RE, Natl Ctr Atmospher Res, MMM, ESIG, POB 3000, Boulder, CO 80307 USA. AB The magnitude of flood damage in the United States, combined with the uncertainty in current estimates of flood risk, suggest that society could benefit from improved scientific information about flood risk. To help address this perceived need, a group of researchers initiated an interdisciplinary study of climate variability, scientific uncertainty, and hydrometeorological information for flood-risk decision making, focused on Colorado's Rocky Mountain Front Range urban corridor. We began by investigating scientific research directions that were likely to benefit flood-risk estimation and management, through consultation with climatologists, hydrologists, engineers, and planners. In doing so, we identified several challenges involved in generating new scientific information to aid flood management in the presence of significant scientific and societal uncertainty. This essay presents lessons learned from this study, along with our observations on the complex interactions among scientific information, uncertainty, and societal decision making. It closes by proposing a modification to the "end to end" approach to conducting societally relevant scientific research. Although we illustrate points using examples from flood management, the concepts may be applicable to other arenas, such as global climate change. CR *NOAA, 2003, NEW PRIOR 21 CENT NO *NRC, 2004, WEATH MEETS ROAD RES *NWS, 2005, FLOOD FAT HYDR INF C ALLEN MR, 2000, NATURE, V407, P617 BROWN MD, 2005, BEING FLOODSMART MEA BURBY RJ, 2001, ENV HAZARDS, V3, P111 BYERLY R, 1995, SCIENCE, V269, P1531 CALLAHAN B, 1999, POLICY SCI, V32, P269 CHANGNON SA, 1998, B AM METEOROL SOC, V79, P2550 DESSAI S, 2003, DOES CLIMATE POLICY DOWNTON MW, 2005, NAT HAZARDS REV, V6, P13 FOTHERGILL A, 2000, NAT HAZARDS REV, V1, P91 FUNTOWICZ SO, 1993, FUTURES, V25, P739 GRUNTFEST E, 2001, COPING FLASH FLOODS HUNT J, 1999, MINERVA, V37, P141 JASANOFF S, 1998, HUMAN CHOICE CLIMATE, P1 KARL TR, 1993, J CLIMATE, V6, P1481 LARSON L, 2001, NAT HAZARDS REV, V2, P167 LEMPERT RJ, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P387 LIVERMAN DM, 2002, CLIMATE RES, V21, P199 MAY PT, 2004, WEATHER FORECAST, V19, P115 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 MEO M, 2002, J AM WATER RESOUR AS, V38, P541 MONTZ BE, 2002, ENV HAZARDS, V4, P15 MOSER S, 1998, E9816 ENRP OVERPECK JT, 2002, 3 S ENV APPL ORL FL OVERPECK JT, 2002, NOAA CLIM SERV WORKS PAGANO TC, 2002, CLIMATE RES, V21, P259 PIELKE R, 2003, ISSUES SCI TECHNOL, V19, P27 PIELKE RA, 1997, B AM METEOROL SOC, V78, P255 PIELKE RA, 2000, J CLIMATE, V13, P3625 PULWARTY RS, 1997, B AM METEOROL SOC, V78, P381 RAY AJ, 2003, S IMP WAT VAR BEN CH SAREWITZ D, 2000, ATLANTIC MONTHLY, V286, P55 SAREWITZ D, 2000, PREDICTION SCI DECIS SCHNEIDER SH, 2001, NATURE, V411, P17 WEBSTER M, 2003, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V61, P295 WHITE GF, 2001, ENV HAZARDS, V3, P81 NR 38 TC 0 J9 BULL AMER METEOROL SOC BP 1593 EP + PY 2005 PD NOV VL 86 IS 11 GA 987LC UT ISI:000233518400020 ER PT J AU Puszkin-Chevlin, A Hernandez, D Murley, J TI Land use planning and its potential to reduce hazard vulnerability: Current practices and future possibilities SO MARINE TECHNOLOGY SOCIETY JOURNAL LA English DT Article C1 Florida Atlantic Univ, Ctr Urban & Environm Solut, Boca Raton, FL 33431 USA. RP Puszkin-Chevlin, A, Florida Atlantic Univ, Ctr Urban & Environm Solut, Boca Raton, FL 33431 USA. AB The concentration of people and infrastructure along the nation's coastline has increased our vulnerability to severe coastal storms and other natural hazards, as evidenced by the substantial social, economic and environmental impacts,of recent hurricanes. Competing policy objectives and stakeholder interests pose,challenges to planners' and public officials' attempts to increase resilience using land development-based approaches. This paper describes theses issues for researchers outside the urban and regional planning discipline. It presents the typical approaches to hazard mitigation and the primary land-use tools used to manage coastal development. It strives to inspire interdisciplinary visioning of sustainable coastal development patterns needed to advance resiliency. CR *CAL STAT U MONT B, COAST EC DAT *CIT INS CORP, 2006, TOT POL HELD CIT INS *FEMA, 2006, FEMA FLOOD INS COV T *FEMA, 2006, MAJ DECL DIS *HJ HEINZ CTR SCI, 2000, EV ER HAZ SUMM *HJ HEINZ CTR SCI, 2000, HIDD COSTS COAST HAZ *HJ HEINZ CTR SCI, 2002, HUM LINKS COAST DIS *MUN RE, 2006, NETCATSERVICE *OR SEAGR, 1994, IMPR NAT HAZ MAN OR BURBY R, 1998, COOPERATING NATURE C BURBY RJ, 1999, J AM PLANN ASSOC, V65, P247 CHAPIN T, 2006, IN PRESS ASS COLL SC COASE RH, 1937, ECONOMICA, V4, P386 COLGAN CS, 2004, CHANGING OCEAN COAST CUTTER SL, 2000, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V90, P713 DALTON LC, 1994, J AM PLANN ASSOC, V60, P444 DEAN C, 1999, TIDE BATTLE AM BEACH DEYLE RE, 1994, POLICY STUD J, V22, P457 DEYLE RE, 1998, J AM PLANN ASSOC, V64, P457 ESNARD AM, 2001, COAST MANAGE, V29, P53 FAIRFAX S, 2005, BUYING NATURE LIMITS FINKL CW, 2003, J COASTAL RES, V19, P934 FREER J, 2006, S FLORIDA BUSIN 0602, P1 LANG R, 2005, MEGALOPOLIS EXPLORIN LARSEN J, 2006, HURRICANE DAMAGES SO MILETI D, 1999, DISASTERS DESIGN REA PELTIER M, 2006, PROPERTY INSURER BAI PLATT RH, 2002, COAST MANAGE, V30, P249 PUSZKINCHEVLIN A, 2007, THESIS COLUMBIA U, P376 SMITH R, 1998, PLANNING POST DISAST, P235 TITUS JG, 1998, MARYLAND LAW REV, V57, P1279 WHEELER L, 2006, AM COAST RISK WHEELER L, 2006, COASTAL GROWTH SPELL WHITE GF, 1975, ASSESSMENT RES NATUR, V1, P1 WISSOKER D, 1997, TESTING DISCRIMINATI NR 35 TC 0 J9 MAR TECHNOL SOC J BP 7 EP 15 PY 2006 PD WIN VL 40 IS 4 GA 146YK UT ISI:000244970400003 ER PT J AU Chen, M Pollard, D TI Development and application of an interactive climate-ecosystem model system SO CHINESE SCIENCE BULLETIN LA English DT Article C1 Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Atmospher Phys, START Reg Ctr Temp E Asia, Key Lab Reg Climate Environm E Asia, Beijing 100029, Peoples R China. Penn State Univ, Ctr Earth Syst Sci, University Pk, PA 16802 USA. RP Chen, M, Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Atmospher Phys, START Reg Ctr Temp E Asia, Key Lab Reg Climate Environm E Asia, Beijing 100029, Peoples R China. AB A regional climate-ecosystem model system is developed in this study. It overcomes the weakness in traditional one-way coupling models and enables detailed description of interactive process between climate and natural ecosystem. It is applied to interaction study between monsoon climate and ecosystem in East Asia, with emphasis on future climate and ecosystem change scenario forced by doubled CO2. The climate tends to be warmer and wetter under doubled CO2 in Jianghuai and the Yangzi River valley, but it becomes warmer and drier in inland areas of northern and northwestern China. The largest changes and feedbacks between vegetation and climate occur in northern China. Northern inland ecosystems experience considerable degradation and desertification, indicating a marked sensitivity and vulnerability to climatic change. The strongest vegetation response to climate change occurs in northern China and the weakest in southern China. Vegetation feedbacks intensify warming and reduce drying due to increased CO2 during summer in northern China. Generally, vegetation-climate interactions are much stronger in northern China than in southern China. CR BONAN G, 1996, 417STR NAT CTR ATM R, P150 BOVILLE BA, 1998, J CLIMATE, V11, P1115 CHARNEY J, 1975, Q J ROY METEOR SOC, V101, P193 CHEN M, 2003, J GEOPHYS RES-ATMOS, V108 CLAUSSEN M, 1994, CLIM RES, V4, P203 CLAUSSEN M, 1997, CLIM DYNAM, V13, P247 COSTA MH, 2000, J CLIMATE, V13, P18 CRAMER W, 2002, EARTH SYSTEM BIOL EC, P166 DICKINSON RE, 1993, NCARTN387STR72 DICKINSON RE, 1998, J CLIMATE, V11, P2823 DING Y, 1994, MONSOONS OVER CHINA, P12 DOUVILLE H, 2001, J CLIMATE, V14, P2381 FERRANTI L, 1999, Q J ROY METEOR SOC A, V125, P1527 FOLEY JA, 1998, GLOB CHANGE BIOL, V4, P561 FU CB, 1999, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V43, P477 GRELL GA, 1994, NCARTN398 HAXELTINE A, 1996, GLOBAL BIOGEOCHEM CY, V10, P693 HOFFMANN WA, 2000, J CLIMATE, V13, P1593 KALNAY E, 1996, B AM METEOROL SOC, V77, P437 LU LX, 2001, J CLIMATE, V14, P900 MEEHL GA, 1994, J CLIMATE, V7, P1033 NEW M, 1999, J CLIMATE, V12, P829 NI J, 2001, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V49, P339 PRENTICE IC, 1992, J BIOGEOGR, V19, P117 SHUKLA J, 1982, SCIENCE, V215, P1498 TEXIER D, 1997, CLIM DYNAM, V13, P865 TSVETSINSKAYA EA, 2001, J CLIMATE, V14, P692 WANG GL, 2002, QJR METEOROL SOC, V126, P1239 WEBSTER PJ, 1983, J ATMOS SCI, V40, P2110 XIE PP, 1996, J CLIMATE, V9, P840 NR 30 TC 0 J9 CHIN SCI BULL BP 44 EP 55 PY 2003 PD DEC VL 48 GA 835PP UT ISI:000222497000008 ER PT J AU Winkler, H TI Climate change and developing countries SO SOUTH AFRICAN JOURNAL OF SCIENCE LA English DT Review C1 Univ Cape Town, Energy Res Ctr, ZA-7701 Rondebosch, South Africa. RP Winkler, H, Univ Cape Town, Energy Res Ctr, Private Bag, ZA-7701 Rondebosch, South Africa. AB This article takes stock of current knowledge of climate change and the response to this major problem affecting the environment and economic development. It begins with a brief review of climate change science and impacts as assessed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. It then reports on the status of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and its Kyoto Protocol, and summarizes national commitments to making the effort required to mitigate climate change by limiting the emission of greenhouse gases. The main issues still to be addressed are identified, focusing in particular on carbon markets and adaptation funding. Future prospects are considered, including possible emissions targets for developing countries. The article thus focuses on the key issues of concern for developing countries. CR *CLIM ACT NETW, 2005, WHY KYOT PROT HIST M *COMM EUR COMM, 2001, PROP DIR EUR PARL CO *EN ENV MIN ROUNDT, 2005, COCH SUMM P EN ENV M *GLOB ENV FAC, 2002, GEF ANN REP *GLOB ENV FAC, 2004, FIN REN GEF *GLOB ENV FAC, 2004, GEFC23INF8 *GLOB GOV IN, 2004, ASS WORLDS EFF CLIM *IN EN AG, 2002, KYOT EN DYN CLIM STA *INT EN AG, 2003, WORLD EN INV OUTL *IPCC, 1995, 2 ASS SYNTH SCI TECH *IPCC, 2000, SPEC REP EM SCEN *IPCC, 2000, SPEC REP REG IMP CLI *UN FRA CONV CLIM, 2001, CLIM CHANG INF KIT *UN FRAM CONV CLIM, 1997, KYOT PROT UN FRAM CO *UN FRAM CONV CLIM, 2002, FCCCSBI200214 UNFCCC *UN FRAM CONV CLIM, 2004, FCCCCP20049 UNFCCC *UNFCCC, 1992, UN FRAM CONV CLIM CH *VULN AD RES GROUP, 2003, POV CLIM CHANG RED V *WORLD RES I, 2003, CLIM AN IND TOOL AGARWAL A, 1991, GLOBAL WARMING UNEQU ALDY JE, 2003, KYOTO ADV INT EFFORT BAUMERT K, 2002, BUILDING KYOTO PROTO BODANSKY D, 2004, INT CLIMATE EFFORTS DAVIDSON O, 2003, CLIM POLICY S1, V3, S97 DENELZEN M, 2002, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V54, P29 DEROO A, 2004, INT IMP QRTR, V10, P2 ELLIS J, 2004, TAKING STOCK PROGR C GOLDEMBERG J, 1995, ENERGY INSTRUMENT SO GOLDEMBERG J, 1999, PROMOTING DEV WHILE GRUBB M, 2003, CARBON PRICES VOLUME HELLER TC, 2003, DEV CLIMATE ENGAGING HOUGHTON JT, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 HUQ S, 2003, MAINSTREAMING ADAPTA HUQ S, 2003, SCI ASSESSMENT INTER JOHANSSON TB, 1996, ENERG POLICY, V24, P985 LAZARUS M, IN PRESS PROJECT BAS MACE M, 2003, SEM JUST AD CLIM CHA MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 METZ B, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 OTT HE, 2004, S N DIALOGUE EQUITY REDDY AKN, 1990, SCI AM, V263, P110 SHUKLA PR, 2002, CLIMATE CHANGE MITIG SINHA CS, 2004, STATE TRENDS CARBON SUGIYAMA T, 2004, ENERG POLICY, V32, P697 TANGEN K, 2003, CONVERGING MARKETS VICTOR DG, 2004, CLIMATE CHANGE DEBAT WATSON RT, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 WINKLER H, 2002, BUILDING KYOTO PROTO, P61 YAMIN F, 2003, INT CLIMATE CHANGE R NR 49 TC 0 J9 S AFR J SCI BP 355 EP 364 PY 2005 PD JUL-AUG VL 101 IS 7-8 GA 989VP UT ISI:000233702400010 ER PT J AU OBrien, KL Leichenko, RM TI Winners and losers in the context of global change SO ANNALS OF THE ASSOCIATION OF AMERICAN GEOGRAPHERS LA English DT Article C1 Univ Oslo, CICERO, N-0318 Oslo, Norway. Rutgers State Univ, Dept Geog, Piscataway, NJ 08854 USA. RP OBrien, KL, Univ Oslo, CICERO, N-0318 Oslo, Norway. AB The idea that global change produces winners and losers is widely accepted. Yet there have been few systematic discussions of what is meant by "winner" or "loser," and little attention has been given to the theoretical underpinnings behind identification of winners and losers. This is particularly true within global-change literature, where the phrase "winners and losers" is widely and rather loosely used. In this article, we explore the concept of winners and losers in the context of two aspects of global change: economic globalization and climate change. We first identify two major underlying theoretical perspectives on winners and losers: one suggests that winners and losers are natural and inevitable; the other suggests that winners and losers are socially and politically generated. We then apply these perspectives to current research on global change and demonstrate that they play a decisive role, influencing opinions on what winning and losing entails, who winners and losers are, and how winners and losers should be addressed. 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UNIV DSCHANG,DEPT FORESTRY,DSCHANG,CAMEROON. RP Dixon, RK, US COUNTRY STUDIES PROGRAM,WASHINGTON,DC 20585. AB The response and feedbacks of forest systems to global environmental change, including the ecosystems of West Africa, are expected to be profound. A comparative assessment of current and future forest distribution in Cameroon and Ghana in response to land-use change and global climate change was completed. From 1970 to 1990, the forest area of Cameroon and Ghana declined dramatically due to harvesting and degradation, averaging 0.6 and 1.3% each year, respectively. The areal distribution of West African forest systems is projected to shift 5 to 15%, based on 4 General Circulation Model (GCM) scenarios and the Holdridge Life Zone Classification System. Loss of forest habitat due to destruction, degradation and climate change is projected to increase animal and plant species loss. Adaptation of evergreen and deciduous forest systems to global environmental change poses many challenges for Cameroon and Ghana. Application of low-input, indigenous resource management options, which have been practiced on a sustained basis for centuries, may be a feasible adaptation goal. 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RP Ziervogel, G, Univ Cape Town, Stockholm Environm Inst, Climate Syst Anal Grp, Dept Environm & Geog Sci, ZA-7925 Cape Town, South Africa. AB Understanding of how best to support those most vulnerable to climate stress is imperative given expected changes in climate variability. This paper investigates local adaptation strategies to climate variability, focusing on agricultural decision-making in a communal irrigation scheme in Vhembe District, Limpopo Province, South Africa. Research done through interviews, surveys and participatory methods demonstrates that adaptation strategies within a community are socially differentiated and present differing objectives and priorities. These results highlight the need for intervention and policy that support a heterogeneous response to a wide range of stresses. Evidence for climate change is clear and the need for adaptation is urgent. However, adaptation measures have to be sensitively integrated with ongoing development pathways to ensure they are sustainable and relevant to local priorities. CR *AFDB AS DEV BANK, 2003, POV CLIM CHANG RED V *IPCC, 2001, SUMM POL REP WORK GR ADGER WN, 2001, LIVING ENV CHANGE SO ADGER WN, 2003, CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPT, P29 ADGER WN, 2004, 7 U E ANGL TYND CTR ADGER WN, 2005, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V15, P77 ADGER WN, 2006, FAIRNESS ADAPTATION ARCHER ERM, 2003, B AM METEOROL SOC, V84, P1525 BERKHOUT F, 2006, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V78, P135 BEZUIDENHOUT CN, 2001, P S AFR SUG TECHNOL, V75, P215 BHARWANI S, 2005, PHILOS T ROY SOC B, V360, P2183 BHARWANI S, 2006, SOC SCI COMPUT REV, V24, P78 BOHLE HG, 1994, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V4, P37 BROOKS N, 2003, 38 U E ANGL TYND CTR BROOKS N, 2005, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V15, P151 BURTON I, 2002, CLIM POLICY, V2, P145 CLOVER J, 2003, AFRICA SECURITY REV, V12, P5 CONWAY D, 2005, PHILOS T ROY SOC A, V363, P49 DOWNING TE, 2005, ADAPTATION POLICY FR DOWNING TE, 2006, 4 SEI ELLIS F, 2000, RURAL LIVELIHOODS DI GODDARD L, 2001, INT J CLIMATOL, V21, P1111 GOLDMAN A, 1995, HUM ECOL, V23, P291 GREGORY PJ, 2005, PHILOS T ROY SOC B, V360, P2139 GROTHMANN T, 2005, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V15, P199 HEWITSON BC, 2006, INT J CLIMATOL, V26, P1315 HUQ S, 2003, MAINSTREAMING ADAPTA IONESCU C, 2005, 1 FAVAIA POTSD I CLI IONESCU C, 2005, 2 POTSD I CLIM IMP R JOHNSTON P, 2005, CLIM RES, V28, P67 KAHN ME, 2003, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V13, P307 KASPERSON JX, 2005, HUMAN DIMENSIONS GLO KELLY PM, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V47, P325 KLOPPER E, 1999, WATER SA, V25, P311 LEICHENKO RM, 2000, MITIGATION ADAPTATIO, V7, P1 LIM B, 2005, ADAPTATION POLICY FR MORTIMORE MJ, 2001, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V11, P49 MPANDELI NS, 2006, THESIS U WITWATERSRA MUNASINGHE M, 2005, PRIMER CLIMATE CHANG MURPHY SJ, 2001, NAT HAZARDS, V23, P171 NETTING RM, 1993, SMALLHOLDERS HOUSEHO NICHOLLS N, 1999, B AM METEOROL SOC, V80, P1385 OBRIEN KL, 2004, 200404 CICERO OBRIEN KL, 2005, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V14, P303 OSTROM E, 1990, GOVERNING COMMONS EV PAAVOLA J, 2006, ECOL ECON, V56, P594 PATT A, 2002, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V12, P185 PATT A, 2005, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V102, P12673 PELLING M, 2005, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V15, P308 REID P, 2006, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V16, P195 RIBOT JC, 1996, CLIMATE VARIABILITY, V1, P1 SCHOLES RJ, 2004, ECOSYSTEM SERVICES S SCHROTER D, 2004, MITIGATION ADAPTATIO, V30, P1 SHARMA U, 2005, HUM SEC CLIM CHANG I SHARP JS, 2003, AGR SYST, V76, P913 SIMMS A, 2004, UP SMOKE SMIT B, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, P877 STERN P, 1999, MAKING CLIMATE FOREC TADROSS M, 2005, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V32 TADROSS M, 2006, S AFRICA PILOT STUDY, P139 THOMALLA F, 2006, DISASTERS, V30, P39 THOMAS DSG, 2005, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V15, P115 TOMPKINS EL, 2002, ENVIRON PLANN A, V34, P1095 TOMPKINS EL, 2004, ECOL SOC, V9, P10 VOGEL C, 2000, S AFRICAN GEOGRAPHIC, V82, P107 WASHINGTON R, 1999, GEOGR J 3, V165, P255 WASHINGTON R, 2005, T232 U E ANGL TYND C WIGGINS S, 2005, AGR EC SOC ANN C NOT WISNER B, 2004, RISK NATURAL HAZARDS YOHE GW, 2002, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V12, P25 ZIERVOGEL G, 2003, AREA, V35, P403 ZIERVOGEL G, 2004, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V65, P73 ZIERVOGEL G, 2004, GEOGR J 1, V170, P6 ZIERVOGEL G, 2005, AGR SYST, V83, P1 ZIERVOGEL G, 2006, 20 AIACC START SECR NR 75 TC 0 J9 NATUR RESOUR FORUM BP 294 EP 305 PY 2006 PD NOV VL 30 IS 4 GA 119JM UT ISI:000243008600006 ER PT J AU PETTS, GE TI REGULATION OF LARGE RIVERS - PROBLEMS AND POSSIBILITIES FOR ENVIRONMENTALLY-SOUND RIVER DEVELOPMENT IN SOUTH-AMERICA SO INTERCIENCIA LA English DT Article RP PETTS, GE, LOUGHBOROUGH UNIV TECHNOL,PHYS GEOG,LOUGHBOROUGH LE11 3TU,LEICS,ENGLAND. AB During the past two decades scientific research has demonstrated the wideranging environmental effects of large dams. In developing countries, continued population growth and increased per capita resources demand are inevitable. In many countries, large dams will continue to be the focus of development to achieve food and energy security. Throughout Latin America large dams and reservoirs have become widespread since 1970 and continue to be built at a rate of two every three years. The main driving force is hydro-electric power production. South America has 20% of the world's hydro-electric power potential but in 1988 only 10% of this potential was exploited. The main focus of development is the upper Parana in south-east Brazil, although most large rivers are being developed to varying degrees. Large alluvial rivers are dominated by lateral gradients that greatly modify the longitudinal pattern of ecosystem processes predicted by the River Continuum Concept. Indeed, the main channel itself is primarily a zone of downstream transport, migration and refuge. Maximum ecological diversity and productivity occurs in reaches having maximum aquatic edge or ecotone. The floodplain ecotone is characterized by a mosaic of patches determined by hydrological and geomorphological processes. Many species are adapted to the hydrological regime, and the associated biogeochemical dynamics, which are particularly pronounced in tropical rivers. Along South American rivers the ecotone is particularly important for fisheries. However, the hydrological and geomorphological processes' are influenced by the human activities in the upstream catchment, including reservoir developments. The ecotone is particularly sensitive to river regulation, and in many cases impacts are exaccerbated by deforestation and pollution associated with urban development, industrialization and mining. Pollution can be particularly problematic in impounded and regulated reaches. All dams change riverine ecosystems downstream. Impacts on fisheries will result from creating barriers to migrations; from hydrological changes and water-quality changes; from changes of channel morphology, aquatic plants and invertebrate communities; and from reduced linkages between main river and floodplain. The fisheries of the once forested alluvial floodplain rivers of the temperate zone were drastically altered as a result of river regulation, and historical studies from Europe, for example, illustrate the vulnerability of floodplain rivers to hydrological changes. However, in Europe one focus of current scientific endeavour is to restore the forested, seasonally-inundated floodplain environments along some large rivers, including the Rhine and Danube. This has stimulated concern in developing countries for improved management strategies for rivers to ensure the sustainability of environmental resources. Environmentally-sound regulation of large rivers in South America requires maintenance of the ecotones. Developments are required in two areas: catchment planning and secondary regulation. Catchment management involves two components. First, the focussing of development on a few rivers so that others can be conserved in a wild state is a philosophy that is rapidly gaining support, not least by sponsoring agencies such as the World Bank. Secondly, as there is a more or less definable limit to the downstream effect of dams, consideration of the location and operational policy of proposed dams in a basin-wide context offers opportunities to minimize impacts and to protect vulnerable areas. Protection must be given, in particular, to locations of centers of organization. Once a plan has been proposed, secondary regulation measures must be developed to mitigate the anticipated adverse impacts. At a large scale, these should include measures to sustain the hydrological and geomorphological dynamics. At a smaller scale, management actions will be needed to maintain patches within the ecotone. These objectives will be met by a combination of three groups of tools. First, flow management requires the allocation of water to conserve ecosystem dynamics. Secondly, channel management involves engineering works to maintain the geomorphological structure of the system. Thirdly, controls on biota and human activities may be introduced, including stocking and culling, access and fishing restrictions. It would be naive to believe that secondary regulation measures alone can protect all ecosystems and all species. However, given appropriate administration and coordination during both the planning and project monitoring phases, the combination of catchment management and secondary regulation could facilitate environmentally-sound river development. 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AB Reducing losses to weather-related disasters, meeting the Millennium Development Goals and wider human development objectives, and implementing a successful response to climate change are aims that can only be accomplished if they are undertaken in an integrated manner. Currently, policy responses to address each of these independently may be redundant or, at worst, conflicting. We believe that this conflict can be attributed primarily to a lack of interaction and institutional overlap among the three communities of practice. Differences in language, method and political relevance may also contribute to the intellectual divide. Thus, this paper seeks to review the theoretical and policy linkages among disaster risk reduction, climate change and development. It finds that not only does action within one realm affect capacity for action in the others, but also that there is much that can be learnt and shared between realms in order to ensure a move towards a path of integrated and more sustainable development. 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CR 1930, DROUGHT RELIEF COMMI 1937, WORKS PROGR ADM RE 5, V1 1954, DROUGHT DESIGNATED C 1976, WEEKLY WEATHER CROP 1978, MANAGING RESOURCE SC 1979, FEDERAL RESPONSE 197 1982, CLIMATE IMPACT ASSES AISTRUP GK, 1956, THESIS KANSAS STATE CHANGNON SA, 1980, WATER INT, V5, P10 CRAWFORD AB, 1977, AAAS SELECTED S, V15, P143 CUTLER MR, 1977, COMMUNICATION 0415 FITE GC, 1966, FARMERS FRONTIER 186 GAMBONE JG, 1970, KANSAS HIST Q, V36, P149 GRUENTHER HH, 1954, COMMUNICATION 1007 HAMILTON DE, 1982, J AM HIST, V68, P850 HOLDEN WC, 1928, SW HIST Q, V32, P103 HURT RD, 1982, AGR SOCIAL HIST DUST LAMBERT R, 1977, J WEST JAN, V16, P66 MURPHY PG, 1935, DROUGHT 1934 FEDERAL PALMER WC, 1965, 45 US WEATH BUR RES SCOTT KL, 1954, COMMUNICATION 0730 STOCKTON BD, 1977, COMMUNICATION 0706 WHITE GF, 1975, ASSESSMENT RES NATUR, V1, P1 WILHITE DA, 1983, 1982 P INT HYDR S DE WILSON ML, 1937, COMMUNICATION 0707 WOODRUFF NE, 1977, THESIS U TENNESSEE NR 26 TC 12 J9 J CLIM APPL METEOROL BP 40 EP 50 PY 1983 VL 22 IS 1 GA QK214 UT ISI:A1983QK21400004 ER PT J AU Laubier, L TI Change and vulnerability of coastal marine communities. SO COMPTES RENDUS GEOSCIENCE LA French DT Article C1 Ctr Oceanol Marseille, F-13007 Marseille, France. RP Laubier, L, Ctr Oceanol Marseille, Rue Batterie Lions, F-13007 Marseille, France. AB Change and vulnerability of coastal marine communities. The anthropogenic increase of greenhouse effect has three main consequences in the coastal marine environment: enlargement of sea surface, increase of sea water carbon dioxide content, lastly increase of seawater temperature. The marine communities are principally sensitive to temperature increase. Mobile organisms change their place, while attached organisms suffer more or less acute mortality events. Present ecophysiological knowledge is not sufficient to anticipate these events. Systematic monitoring of marine communities becomes a necessity, parallel to the monitoring of physicochemical parameters and their palaeoclimatic history. (C) 2003 Academie des sciences. Public par Editions scientifiques et medicales Elsevier SAS. CR 1993, PROCEEDINGS WORLD CO BUDDEMEIER RW, 2000, RECHERCHE, V334, P52 CARTER RWG, 1988, COSTAL ENV CUSHING DH, 1982, CLIMATE FISHERIES GATTUSO JP, 1993, MAR ECOL-PROG SER, V96, P259 GLYNN PW, 1993, CORAL REEFS, V12, P1 KAWAHATA H, 1997, CORAL REEFS, V16, P261 LAUBIER L, 2001, ATTI ASS IT OCEAN LI, V14, P15 LECLERCQ N, 2000, GLOB CHANGE BIOL, V6, P329 MONTAGGIONI LF, 2002, OCEANIS, V26, P147 NEUHAUS R, 2001, CLIMATE 21 CENT CHAN, P311 PASKOFF R, 2001, ELEVATION NIVEAU MER QUERO JC, 1998, OCEANOL ACTA, V21, P345 RIEBESELL U, 2000, NATURE, V407, P364 RIEBESELL U, 2001, CLIMATE 21 CENT CHAN, P266 VONWESTERNHAGEN H, 2001, CLIM 21 CENT CHANGES, P283 WILKINSON CR, 1992, P 7 INT COR REEF S G, V1, P11 WILSON WH, 2001, AQUAT MICROB ECOL, V25, P99 NR 18 TC 1 J9 C R GEOSCI BP 561 EP 568 PY 2003 PD JUN-JUL VL 335 IS 6-7 GA 730EY UT ISI:000185817300008 ER PT J AU Eakin, H TI Institutional change, climate risk, and rural vulnerability: Cases from central Mexico SO WORLD DEVELOPMENT LA English DT Article C1 Univ Calif Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, CA 93106 USA. RP Eakin, H, Univ Calif Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, CA 93106 USA. AB A multiscalar, multistressor assessment of rural vulnerability is presented, illustrating how globalization, market liberalization, and climatic risk simultaneously structure the livelihood strategies of Mexican smallholders. Ethnographic data collected in three communities are used to argue that farmers' capacities to manage climatic risk are circumscribed by the ways in which they are able to negotiate changes in agricultural policy. Four livelihood strategies are explored in detail to show that market integration does not necessarily improve risk management capacity, and that subsistence maize production-while highly sensitive to hazards-may actually serve to enhance livelihood stability. The dominance of economic uncertainty over environmental risk in households' decision making implies a continued role for government intervention to help households adapt to climatic stress. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *CONAPO, 1998, IND MARG LOC 1995 *INIFAP, 1998, CONV PROD TEMP EST T *WORLD BANK, 2001, WORLD DEV REP 2000 2 ADGER WN, 1999, WORLD DEV, V27, P249 APPENDINI K, 1992, MILPA TORTIBONOS RES APPENDINI K, 1998, TRANSFORMATION RURAL, P25 AUSTIN JE, 1987, FOOD POLICY MEXICO S BAFFES J, 1998, J INT DEV, V10, P575 BATTERBURY S, 1999, ENVIRONMENT, V41, P7 BEBBINGTON A, 1999, WORLD DEV, V27, P2021 BERNARD HR, 1994, RES METHODS ANTHR BLAIKIE PM, 1994, RISK NATURAL HAZARDS, V1, P1 BRUSH S, 1977, MOUNTAIN FIELD FAMIL BRYCESON DF, 1996, WORLD DEV, V24, P97 BRYCESON DF, 2002, WORLD DEV, V30, P725 CHIOTTI QP, 1997, AGR RESTRUCTURING SU, P201 CONDE C, 1998, GEO UNAM, V5, P26 CONDE C, 2000, MEXICO VISION HACIA, P119 CORNELIUS W, 1998, TRANSFORMATION RURAL DEJANVRY A, 1995, REFORMAS SECTOR AGR DEJANVRY A, 2001, WORLD DEV, V29, P467 DELEON EZP, 1996, SEGUNDO INFORME GOBI DEWALT BR, 1979, MODERNIZATION MEXICA DOWNING TE, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE WORLD, P185 EAKIN H, 2003, J ENV DEVC, V12, P414 GERBER J, 1995, NAFTA TRANSITION, P93 GLEDHILL J, 1995, NEOLIBERALISM TRANSN HEWITT K, 1983, INTERPRETATIONS CALA, P3 HOLZMANN R, 2000, 0006 WORLD BANK SOC KATES RW, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P5 KATES RW, 2001, SCIENCE, V292, P641 KELLY PM, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V47, P325 LEICHENKO RM, 2002, MITIGATION ADAPTATIO, V7, P1 LIVERMAN DM, 2001, GLOBAL ENV RISK, P201 MAGANA V, 1999, IMPACTOS NINO MEXICO MAGANA V, 2005, CAMIBO CLIMATICO VIS, P203 MARSH R, 1998, TRANSFORMATION RURAL, P277 MCMICHAEL P, 1994, GLOBAL RESTRUCTURING MORTIMORE MJ, 1989, ADAPTING DROUGHT FAR MORTIMORE MJ, 1999, WORKING SAHE ENV SOC MOUNT TD, 1994, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V27, P121 MYHRE D, 1998, TRANSFORMATION RURAL, P39 NADAL A, 1999, ENV TRADE SERIES, V6 NADAL A, 2000, ENV SOCIAL IMPACTS E NETTING R, 1993, SMALLHOLDERS HOUSEHO OBRIEN KL, 2004, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V14, P303 OBRIEN KL, 2000, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V10, P221 OCHOA EC, 1994, ESTADO AGR MEXICO AN REARDON T, 2001, WORLD DEV, V29, P395 SCOONES I, 1998, 72 IDS SEN AK, 1981, Q J ECON, V96, P433 SEN AK, 1990, POLITICAL EC HUNGER, P50 SMITH B, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P223 SMITHERS J, 1997, AGR RESTRUCTURING SU SNYDER R, 2001, POLITICS NEOLIBERALI TIMMERMANN A, 1999, NATURE, V398, P694 TURNER BL, 2003, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V100, P8074 WATTS M, 1983, ANTIPODE, V15, P24 WISNER B, 1977, THESIS CLARK U WOOST YAPA L, 1996, LIBERATION ECOLOGIES YOHE GW, 2001, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V12, P25 ZIMMERER KS, 1991, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V81, P443 NR 62 TC 2 J9 WORLD DEVELOP BP 1923 EP 1938 PY 2005 PD NOV VL 33 IS 11 GA 982QE UT ISI:000233175900009 ER PT J AU Wagner, CG TI The struggle for environmental security - Scholars revisiting "The limits to growth" assess its predictions. SO FUTURIST LA English DT Editorial Material CR PIRAGES D, 2005, RESOURCE SCARCITY EC NR 1 TC 0 J9 FUTURIST BP 14 EP 15 PY 2005 PD NOV-DEC VL 39 IS 6 GA 972IG UT ISI:000232446900013 ER PT J AU Chemane, D Motta, H Achimo, M TI Vulnerability of coastal resources to climate changes in Mozambique: a call for integrated coastal zone management SO OCEAN & COASTAL MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article C1 Natl Inst Hydrog & Navigat, INAHINA, Maputo 2089, Mozambique. Minist Coordinat Environm Affairs, MICOA, Maputo 2020, Mozambique. Eduardo Mondland Univ, Fac Sci, Dept Geol, Maputo 257, Mozambique. RP Chemane, D, Natl Inst Hydrog & Navigat, INAHINA, Av Karl Marx 153, Maputo 2089, Mozambique. AB The Earth is affected by the emission of different gases which are largely generated by human activities. The "blanket" these gases form around the planet is likely to affect the climate balance. The resulting warmth could cause partial melting of the polar ice-caps, as well as the thermal expansion of the sea water, with the consequence of harmful degrees of sea-level rise. If global warming becomes a reality, with the consequential sea-level rise Africa's numerous islands and all its low-lying coastal areas, which include large areas of Mozambique, would be severely affected. This paper describes how the projected sea-level rise would affect a particular area in Mozambique, which is just one of the many vulnerable areas. The article also focuses on the broader framework for integrated coastal zone management in Mozambique and its enormous challenges, that aims to accommodate not only the current problems the coastal zone is facing, but also those resulting from the projected accelerated sea level rise. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *CNA, 1993, COMPILACCAO LEGISLAC *GTA, 1990, MOZ PRES ENV SIT *IPCC, 1990, SEA LEV RIS *MAP, 1995, POL PES ESTR IMPL *MICOA UEM, 1995, STAT QUO ASS COAST Z *MICOA, 1995, B SOC GEOL FRANCE, V3, P419 *MICOA, 1995, NEMP PROGR SUPP DOC *MICOA, 1995, PROGR NAC GEST AMB *SARDC, 1994, SARDC IUCN SADC *UNEP WMO, 1995, UN FRAM CONV CLIM CH BRUUN P, 1962, J WATERWAYS HARBORS, V88, P117 HUGHES P, 1992, J COASTAL RES, V8 JARITZ G, 1977, GEOL JB B, V26 LOPES L, 1996, PAP INV NA GEST ZON SAKET M, 1994, MOZ92031 FAOPNUD SAYAO O, 1995, INTEGRATED COASTAL A NR 16 TC 0 J9 OCEAN COAST MANAGE BP 63 EP 83 PY 1997 VL 37 IS 1 GA ZM705 UT ISI:000073567600006 ER PT J AU Walker, PA TI Political ecology: where is the ecology.? SO PROGRESS IN HUMAN GEOGRAPHY LA English DT Article C1 Univ Oregon, Dept Geog, Eugene, OR 97403 USA. RP Walker, PA, Univ Oregon, Dept Geog, Eugene, OR 97403 USA. CR BASSETT TJ, 2000, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V90, P67 BASSETT TJ, 2004, GEOGRAPHY AM DAWN 21 BATESON G, 1972, STEPS ECOLOGY MIND C BATTERBURY S, 1997, GEOGR J 2, V163, P126 BERNSTEIN H, 1979, J PEASANT STUD, V6, P420 BLAIKIE PM, 1985, POLITICAL EC SOIL ER BLAIKIE PM, 1987, LAND DEGRADATION SOC BRAUN B, 1998, REMAKING REALITY NAT BUNKER SG, 1984, AM J SOCIOL, V89, P1017 BURTON I, 1978, ENV HAZARD, V1, P1 BUTZER KW, 1989, GEOGRAPHY AM CARNEY J, 1990, AFRICA, V60, P207 FAIRHEAD J, 1995, WORLD DEV, V23, P1023 FORSYTH T, 2003, CRITICAL POLITICAL E FRANK AG, 1969, CAPITALISM UNDERDEVE GEZON LL, 1997, ETHNOLOGY, V36, P85 HECHT SB, 1985, WORLD DEV, V13, P663 HECHT SB, 1990, FATE FOREST DEV DEST HOLLING CS, 1986, SUSTAINABLE DEV BIOS, V1, P1 HOLLING CS, 2002, PANARCHY UNDERSTANDI HURLEY PT, 2004, ENVIRON PLANN A, V36, P1529 LEACH M, 1996, LIE LAND CHALLENGING MCCARTHY JJ, 2002, ENVIRON PLANN A, V34, P1281 MCCARTHY JP, 1998, REMAKING REALITY NAT MCCARTHY JP, 2001, VIOLENT ENV MOORE DS, 1993, ECON GEOGR, V69, P380 MOORE DS, 1998, CULT ANTHROPOL, V13, P344 ODUM HT, 1970, ENV POWER SOC PAULSON S, 2003, HUM ORGAN, V62, P205 PEET R, 1996, LIBERATION ECOLOGIES REICE SR, 1994, AM SCI, V82, P424 SCHROEDER RA, 1999, SHADY PRACTICES AGRO SHANIN T, 1971, PEASANTS PEASANT SOC SOULE M, 1995, REINVENTING NATURE SPRUGEL DG, 1991, BIOL CONSERV, V58, P1 STEWARD JH, 1955, THEORY CULTURAL CHAN TURNER BL, 2002, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V92, P52 TURNER M, 1993, ECON GEOGR, V69, P402 TURNER MD, 1998, J BIOGEOGR, V25, P669 TURNER MD, 1998, J BIOGEOGR, V25, P683 TURNER MD, 1999, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V89, P191 TURNER MD, 1999, HUM ECOL, V27, P267 TURNER MD, 1999, SOC NATUR RESOUR, V12, P643 VAYDA AP, 1999, HUM ECOL, V27, P167 WALKER P, 2003, CULT GEOGR, V10, P469 WALLERSTEIN IM, 1974, MODERN WORLD SYSTEM WATTS MJ, 1990, CAPITALISM NATURE SO, V4, P123 WATTS MJ, 1997, PROG HUM GEOG, V21, P75 WATTS MJ, 1983, SILENT VIOLENCE FOOD WATTS MJ, 1985, DESERT DEV MAN TECHN WATTS MJ, 2000, DICT HUMAN GEOGRAPHY WATTS MJ, 2003, UNPUB POLITICAL ECOL WILLEMSBRAUN B, 1997, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V87, P3 WOLF E, 1972, ANTHR Q, V45, P201 ZIMMERER KS, 1991, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V81, P443 ZIMMERER KS, 1993, ECON GEOGR, V69, P312 ZIMMERER KS, 1993, WORLD DEV, V21, P1659 ZIMMERER KS, 1994, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V84, P108 ZIMMERER KS, 1999, HUM ECOL, V27, P135 ZIMMERER KS, 2000, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V90, P356 ZIMMERER KS, 2000, ECUMENE, V7, P150 ZIMMERER KS, 2003, POLITICAL ECOLOGY IN ZIMMERER KS, 2003, SOC NATUR RESOUR, V16, P583 NR 63 TC 10 J9 PROG HUM GEOGR BP 73 EP 82 PY 2005 PD JAN VL 29 IS 1 GA 903QC UT ISI:000227439700007 ER PT J AU Zhao, YX Wang, CY Wang, SL Tibig, L TI Impacts of present and future climate variability on agriculture and forestry in the humid and sub-humid tropics SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 China Meteorol Adm, Chinese Acad Meteorol Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China. Peking Univ, Sch Phys, Beijing, Peoples R China. Phillippine Atmospher Geophys & Astron Serv Adm, Quezon City, Philippines. RP Zhao, YX, China Meteorol Adm, Chinese Acad Meteorol Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China. AB Although there are different results from different studies, most assessments indicate that climate variability would have negative effects on agriculture and forestry in the humid and sub-humid tropics. Cereal crop yields would decrease generally with even minimal increases in temperature. For commercial crops, extreme events such as cyclones, droughts and floods lead to larger damages than only changes of mean climate. Impacts of climate variability on livestock mainly include two aspects; impacts on animals such as increase of heat and disease stress-related death, and impacts on pasture. As to forestry, climate variability would have negative as well as some positive impacts on forests of humid and sub-humid tropics. However, in most tropical regions, the impacts of human activities such as deforestation will be more important than climate variability and climate change in determining natural forest cover. 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Univ Texas, Dept Geog & Environm, Austin, TX 78712 USA. RP Adamo, SB, Univ N Carolina, Carolina Populat Ctr, 3-2 E Univ Sq E,123 W Franklin St, Chapel Hill, NC 27516 USA. AB This paper explores environmental hazards, more specifically desertification processes, in all area of west central Argentina, addressing the combined influence of the physical framework and the long lasting human settlement and use of natural resources. It is based upon the analysis of remotely sensed using vegetation indices, image differentiation, change detection, and pattern metrics. The results indicate a net decreased in the amount of vegetation between 1973 and 2001, and increasing fragmentation of vegetation classes. This is interpreted as a sign of the presence of land degradation processes likely linked to human activities in the areas of irrigated farming, grazing, firewood gathering and population settlement. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 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Wealth, rights and disaster vulnerability SO DISASTERS LA English DT Article C1 Univ Massachusetts, Dept Ecol, Amherst, MA 01003 USA. RP Boyce, JK, Univ Massachusetts, Dept Ecol, Amherst, MA 01003 USA. AB Disaster-vulnerability reduction is an impure public good: when provided to one it is provided to others, but not equally provided to all. This means that in addition to the question of how much disaster-vulnerability reduction to provide, policymakers face the question of to whom it should be provided. This essay distinguishes between two broad classes of approaches to the latter question, one based one wealth, the other on rights. CR 1992, ECONOMIST 0208, P66 AHLUWALIA MS, 1974, REDISTRIBUTION GROWT ANDERSON MR, 1996, HUMAN RIGHTS APPROAC BLAIKIE PM, 1994, RISK NATURAL HAZARDS, V1, P1 CHERPITEL DJ, 2000, PROV CONS C RED DIS LAU M, 1996, HUMAN RIGHTS APPROAC LITTLE IMD, 1974, PROJECT APPRAISAL POPOVIC NAF, 1996, COLUM HUM RTS L REV, V27, P487 RAY A, 1984, COST BENEFIT ANAL IS SAMUELSON PA, 1955, REV ECON STAT, V37, P350 NR 10 TC 3 J9 DISASTERS BP 254 EP 261 PY 2000 PD SEP VL 24 IS 3 GA 357QP UT ISI:000089512600006 ER PT J AU Naess, LO Norland, IT Lafferty, WM Aall, C TI Data and processes linking vulnerability assessment to adaptation decision-making on climate change in Norway SO GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS LA English DT Article C1 Univ Oslo, CICERO, N-0318 Oslo, Norway. Univ Oslo, Program Res & Documentat Sustainable Soc, N-0317 Oslo, Norway. Western Norway Res Inst, N-6851 Sogndal, Norway. RP Naess, LO, Univ Oslo, CICERO, POB 1129 Blindern, N-0318 Oslo, Norway. AB The article focuses on the use of climate change vulnerability assessments in a local decision-making context, with particular reference to recent studies in Norway. We focus on two aspects of vulnerability assessments that we see as key to local decision-making: first, the information generated through the assessments themselves, and second, the institutional linkages to local level decision-making processes. Different research approaches generate different types of data. This is rarely made explicit, yet it has important implications for decision-making. In addressing these challenges we propose a dialectic approach based on exchange, rather than integration of data from different approaches. The focus is on process over product, and on the need for anchoring vulnerability assessments in local decision-making processes. In conclusion, we argue that there is unlikely to be one single 'correct' assessment tool or indicator model to make vulnerability assessments matter at a local level. (C) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *ACIA, 2004, ARCT CLIM CHANG IMP *MIN ENV MIN LOC G, 1997, T597 MIN ENV *NVE, 1999, GUID LAND US SAF FLO AAHEIM A, 2004, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V14, P147 AALL C, 2003, 303 VF W NORW RES I AALL C, 2003, REGIONAL SUSTAINABLE AALL C, 2004, 204 PROSUS U OSL ADGER WN, 2000, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V90, P738 ADGER WN, 2004, 7 U E ANGL TYND CTR BACKSTRAND K, 2002, BERL C KNOWL SUST TR BERG H, 2004, 39 FLOOD COAST MAN C BERKHOUT F, 1999, INSIGHTS, V30, P1 BERKHOUT F, 2002, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V12, P83 BJORNAES T, 2002, 52002 PROSUS U OSL BJORNAES T, 2002, REALIZING RIO NORWAY BJORNAES T, 2004, NORWEGIAN MONITOR, V21 BURTON I, 2002, CLIM POLICY, V2, P145 CARTER TR, 1994, 1 SESS C PART UN FRA CARTER TR, 1994, TECHNICAL GUIDELINES CASH DW, 2000, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V10, P109 CASH DW, 2003, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V100, P8086 CUTTER SL, 1993, LIVING RISK CUTTER SL, 2003, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V93, P1 DESSAI S, 2003, 34 U E ANGL TYND CTR DOWNING TE, 2004, 3 UNDP FORD JD, 2004, ARCTIC, V57, P389 FUSSEL HM, IN PRESS CLIMATE CHA GODDARD L, 2001, INT J CLIMATOL, V21, P1111 GROVEN K, UNPUB NATURAL DISAST IVERSEN T, 2003, NORWEGIAN CICERONE, V5, P20 JACOBS K, 2005, ENVIRONMENT, V47, P6 LEMOS MC, 2005, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V15, P57 LINDSETH G, 2003, 2003 HAMB C DISC MAT LINDSETH G, 2004, 404 PROSUS U OSL LINDSETH G, 2005, J ENV POLICY PLANNIN, V1, P61 LISO KR, 2003, BUILD RES INF, V31, P200 LIVERMAN DM, 2002, CLIMATE RES, V21, P199 LORENZONI I, 2000, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V10, P145 LORENZONI I, 2000, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V10, P57 MALONE EL, 2001, CLIMATE RES, V19, P173 MOSER SC, 2005, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V15, P353 NAESS LO, 2005, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V15, R10 OBRIEN KL, 2004, 200404 CICERO OBRIEN KL, 2004, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V64, P193 OBRIEN KL, 2003, PLAN TIDSKRIFT SAMFU, V5, P12 PATT A, 2005, CR GEOSCI, V337, P411 PATT A, 2005, CR GEOSCI, V337, P425 SCHROTER D, 2005, MITIGATION ADAPTATIO, V10, P573 TURNER BL, 2003, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V100, P8074 WILBANKS TJ, 1999, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V43, P601 WILBANKS TJ, 2003, CLIM POLICY S1, V3, S147 WILBANKS TJ, 2004, BRIDG SCAL EP LINK L YOUNG O, 1998, 9 IHDP NR 53 TC 0 J9 GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANGE BP 221 EP 233 PY 2006 PD MAY VL 16 IS 2 GA 051NM UT ISI:000238167800010 ER PT J AU Bellwood, DR Hughes, TP Folke, C Nystrom, M TI Confronting the coral reef crisis SO NATURE LA English DT Review C1 James Cook Univ N Queensland, Dept Marine Biol, Ctr Coral Reef Biodivers, Townsville, Qld 4811, Australia. Univ Perpignan, Ecole Prat Hautes Etud, CNRS, UMR 8046, F-66860 Perpignan, France. Stockholm Univ, Dept Syst Ecol, SE-10691 Stockholm, Sweden. Royal Swedish Acad Sci, Beijer Int Inst Ecol Econ, Stockholm, Sweden. RP Bellwood, DR, James Cook Univ N Queensland, Dept Marine Biol, Ctr Coral Reef Biodivers, Townsville, Qld 4811, Australia. AB The worldwide decline of coral reefs calls for an urgent reassessment of current management practices. confronting large-scale crises requires a major scaling-up of management efforts based on an improved understanding of the ecological processes that underlie reef resilience. Managing for improved resilience, incorporating the role of human activity in shaping ecosystems, provides a basis for coping with uncertainty, future changes and ecological surprises. Here we review the ecological roles of critical functional groups (for both corals and reef fishes) that are fundamental to understanding resilience and avoiding phase shifts from coral dominance to less desirable, degraded ecosystems. We identify striking biogeographic differences in the species richness and composition of functional groups, which highlight the vulnerability of Caribbean reef ecosystems. These findings have profound implications for restoration of degraded reefs, management of fisheries, and the focus on marine protected areas and biodiversity hotspots as priorities for conservation. 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RP Nakamura, T, UNEP, Div GEP Coordinat, POB 47074, Nairobi 00100, Kenya. AB The use of a set of indicators is proposed for the purpose of making an effective decision within an ecosystem-based approach to river basin management. The indicators are selected to reflect and represent hydrological, geochemical, ecological and socio-economic functions identified as relevant ecosystem functions and services included in the target river basin. Depending on the river basin management objectives, these indicators are defined and then weighted. The ecosystem function index is formulated using the weighted indicators, and indicates proposed management options within the framework of the ecosystem-based river basin management regarding the management objectives. The ecosystem function index is intended to represent the ecosystem vulnerability and resilience to pressures and threats caused by human intervention within the specific river basin. Copyright (c) 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. CR *CCICED TASK FORC, 2004, PROM INT RIV BAS MAN *GIWA, 2001, GLOB INT WAT ASS *SEPA UNEP UN HABI, 2004, FLOOD VULN ASS CAS S *SOPAC UNEP, 2005, BUILD RES SIDS *SOPAC, 1999, ENV VULN IND EVI SUM *UNDHA, 1993, GLOSS INT AGR GLOSS *UNDP UNEP WORLD B, 2000, WORLD RES 2000 2001 *UNEP, 1996, GLOB BIOD ASS *UNEP, 1999, SCOP MISS 1998 FLOOD *UNEP, 2001, VULN IND CLIM CHANG *UNEP, 2002, GLOB ENV OUTL, V3, P301 *WORLD EC FOR, 2000, PIL ENV SUST IND JIN LX, 2005, PAYMENT ENV ECOSYSTE LONERGAN S, 1998, 1 GLOB ENV CHANG HUM NAKAMURA T, 2000, 2 WORKSH VULN ASS FL NAKAMURA T, 2001, P INT SEM INT WAT MA, P161 NAKAMURA T, 2002, UNCHS UNEP 2002 MITI, V1, P66 NAKAMURA T, 2003, HYDROL PROCESS, V17, P2711 PATKINS J, 2000, 40 COMM SECR VEMULA VG, 2004, TRAINING WORKSHOP WE ZHANG JP, 2000, SEPA UNEP UNCHS 2000, P120 NR 21 TC 0 J9 HYDROL PROCESS BP 1293 EP 1308 PY 2006 PD APR 15 VL 20 IS 6 GA 035QA UT ISI:000237015200005 ER PT J AU Barnett, J TI Destabilizing the environment-conflict thesis SO REVIEW OF INTERNATIONAL STUDIES LA English DT Article AB The argument that environmental degradation will lead to conflict is a well established concern of international studies, and it dominates the literature on environmental security. This article critically examines theories about wars fought over scarce 'environmental' resources,'water wars', and the argument that population growth may induce conflict. One significant research programme-the Project on Environment, Population and Security-is also discussed. The article ends with an evaluation of the theoretical merits and practical effects of the environment-conflict thesis. It argues that the environment-conflict thesis is theoretically rather than empirically driven, and is both a product and legitimation of the Northern security agenda. 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CR 1977, ENERGY CLIMATE 1977, WORKSHOP ALTERNATIVE 1978, 1978 SCOPE WORKSH CL 1979, INTERFUTURES FACING 1979, SOCIAL SCI POLICY MA 1980, 013 US DEP EN REP 1980, 1980 CTR ENV ASS SER 1980, AD HOC STUDY PANEL E 1980, UNEP EXPERT GROUP M 1980, WMO540 WORLD MET ORG 1980, WORKSHOP ENV SOC CON, P79 1981, JOINT WMO ICSU UNEP 1981, MANAGING CLIMATIC RE ABT CC, 1979, P AM ACAD ARTS SCI, V108, P89 AUSUBEL J, 1980, WP80152 INT I APPL S AUSUBEL J, 1980, WP80153 INT I APPL S BECK LW, 1949, SCI MON, V68, P386 BISWAS AK, 1979, FOOD CLIMATE MAN, P237 BOHRNSTEDT GW, 1980, AM BEHAVIORAL SCI, V23, P781 BROAD WJ, 1980, SCIENCE, V210, P171 BROAD WJ, 1980, SCIENCE, V210, P38 BROWN GE, 1980, WORKSHOP ENV SOC CON, P122 BUTZER K, 1980, AM SCI, V68, P517 CATTON WR, 1980, AM BEHAV SCI, V23, P15 CHEN RS, 1980, P BIOENERGY 80 WORLD, P544 CHURCHMAN CW, 1977, ADAPTING SCI SOCIAL, P11 CORWIN R, 1977, ADAPTING SCI SOCIAL, P107 DALY HE, 1980, AM BEHAV SCI, V24, P79 DUNLAP RE, 1980, AM BEHAV SCI, V24, P5 ERICKSEN NJ, 1975, SCENARIO METHODOLOGY FEYERABEND P, 1978, METHOD FISCHHOFF B, 1980, COGNITION SOCIAL BEH, P579 FISCHHOFF B, 1982, SOCIAL SCI RES CLIMA GLANTZ M, 1979, NATURE, V280, P189 GLANTZ MH, 1981, 1981 WORKSH IMPR SCI HAHN WA, 1977, ADAPTING SCI SOCIAL, P253 HAMMOND KR, 1977, IEEE T SYST MAN CYB, V7, P358 HORVITZ D, 1977, ADAPTING SCI SOCIAL, P239 HUNTINGTON E, 1915, CLIMATE CIVILIZATION JONES C, 1979, POLICY ANAL, V5, P473 KATES RW, 1980, IMPROVING SCI IMPACT KELLOGG WW, 1981, CLIMATE CHANGE SOC C KOOPMANS TC, 1979, AM EC REV, V69, P1 KUHN TS, 1970, STRUCTURE SCI REVOLU LANDSBERG H, 1946, SCI MONTHLY, V63, P293 LAVE LB, 1981, CP8114 INT I APPL SY MACLANE S, 1980, SCIENCE, V210, P158 MANN D, 1982, SOCIAL SCI RES CLIMA MAR BW, 1976, ENVIRON SCI TECHNOL, V10, P650 MEAD M, 1977, 143RD S ANN M AM ASS NAGEL E, 1961, STRUCTURE SCI PROBLE RABB TK, 1982, SOCIAL SCI RES CLIMA ROBINSON JB, 1981, WP8134 INT I APPL SY SCHIPPER L, 1977, 143RD S ANN M AM ASS SCHNEIDER SH, 1974, REV GEOPHYS SPACE PH, V12, P447 SCHNEIDER SH, 1977, 143RD S ANN M AM ASS SCHNEIDER SH, 1977, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V1, P21 SCHNEIDER SH, 1981, ANN REV ENERGY, V5, P107 SCHNEIDER SH, 1981, PRIMORDIAL BOND EXPL SCHNEIDER SH, 1982, UNPUB FOOD CLIMATE I SCRIBNER RA, 1977, ADAPTING SCI SOCIAL SHELDON EB, 1975, SCIENCE, V188, P693 SMITH VK, 1980, EC IMPACT ANAL CLIMA TORRY WI, 1979, CURR ANTHROPOL, V20, P517 TORRY WI, 1982, UNPUB SOCIAL SCI RES TOULMIN S, 1977, PHILOS SCI WARRICK RA, 1981, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V3, P387 WEINGART J, 1977, 143RD S ANN M AM ASS WEISS EB, 1982, UNPUB SOCIAL SCI RES WHITE GF, 1975, ASSESSMENT RES NATUR, V1, P1 WHITE IL, 1979, ENV PROFESSIONAL, V1, P51 NR 71 TC 5 J9 CLIMATIC CHANGE BP 429 EP 447 PY 1981 VL 3 IS 4 GA MW757 UT ISI:A1981MW75700004 ER PT J AU Pielke, RA Landsea, C Mayfield, M Laver, J Pasch, R TI Hurricanes and global warming SO BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY LA English DT Article C1 Univ Colorado, Ctr Sci & Technol Policy Res, Boulder, CO 80309 USA. NOAA, Atlantic Oceanog & Meteorol Lab, Hurricane Res Div, Miami, FL 33149 USA. NOAA, Natl Hurricane Ctr, Miami, FL 33149 USA. NOAA, Climate Predict Ctr, Camp Springs, MD USA. RP Pielke, RA, Univ Colorado, Ctr Sci & Technol Policy Res, 1333 Grandview Ave,UCB 488, Boulder, CO 80309 USA. AB This paper reviews recent research on tropical cyclones and climate change from the perspective of event risk-the physical behavior of storms; vulnerability-the characteristics of a system that create the potential for impacts, but are independent of event risk; and also outcome risk-the integration of considerations of vulnerability with event risk to characterize an event that causes losses. The paper concludes that with no trend identified in various metrics of hurricane damage over the twentieth century, it is exceedingly unlikely 'that scientists will identify large changes in historical storm behavior that have significant societal implications, though scientists may identify discernible changes in storm behavior. Looking to the future, until scientists conclude a) that there will be changes to storms that are significantly larger than observed in the past, b) that such changes are correlated to measures of societal impact, and c) that the effects of such changes are significant in the context of inexorable growth in population and property at risk, then it is reasonable to conclude that the significance of any connection of human-caused climate change to hurricane impacts necessarily has been and will continue to be exceedingly small. CR *HARV MED SCH, 2004, EXP WARN GLOB WARM L *NCAR, 2004, HURR CLIM CHANG THER BISTER M, 2002, J GEOPHYS RES-ATMOS, V107 CHAN JCL, 2004, J CLIMATE, V17, P4590 EILPERIN J, 2005, WASHINGTON POST 0123, A13 ELSNER JB, 2000, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V27, P129 EMANUEL K, 2000, MON WEATHER REV, V128, P1139 EMANUEL K, 2005, NATURE, V436, P686 EMANUEL KA, 1987, NATURE, V326, P483 EPSTEIN PR, 2004, B AM METEOROL SOC, V85, P1863 FREE M, 2004, J CLIMATE, V17, P1722 GOLDENBERG SB, 2001, SCIENCE, V293, P474 GRAY WM, 1968, MON WEA REV, V96, P669 GRAY WM, 1979, METEOROLOGY TROPICAL, P155 GRAY WM, 1997, HURRICANES CLIMATE S, P15 HENDERSONSELLER.A, 1998, B AM METEOROL SOC, V79, P9 HENSON B, 2005, UCAR Q WIN HOUGHTON JT, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 KNUTSON TR, 2004, J CLIMATE, V17, P3477 LANDER MA, 1998, MON WEATHER REV, V126, P1163 LANDSEA CW, 1999, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V42, P89 LIGHTHILL J, 1994, B AM METEOROL SOC, V75, P2147 MICHAELS PJ, 2005, IN PRESS J CLIMATE PIELKE RA, 1997, HURRICANES THEIR NAT PIELKE RA, 1998, WEATHER FORECAST 2, V13, P621 PIELKE RA, 2000, ENERGY ENV, V11, P255 PIELKE RA, 2003, NATURAL HAZARDS REV, V4, P101 PULWARTY RS, 1997, HURRICANES CLIMATE S RAYNER S, 2004, INT CHALLENGE CLIMAT ROYER JF, 1998, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V38, P307 SAREWITZ D, 2003, RISK ANAL, V23, P805 SUGI M, 2002, J METEOROL SOC JPN, V80, P249 TRENBERTH K, 2005, SCIENCE, V308, P1753 WALSH K, 2004, CLIM RES, V27, P78 WEBSTER PJ, 2005, SCIENCE, V309, P1844 NR 35 TC 14 J9 BULL AMER METEOROL SOC BP 1571 EP + PY 2005 PD NOV VL 86 IS 11 GA 987LC UT ISI:000233518400018 ER PT J AU Matthew, RA Gaulin, T McDonald, B TI The elusive quest: Linking environmental change and conflict SO CANADIAN JOURNAL OF POLITICAL SCIENCE-REVUE CANADIENNE DE SCIENCE POLITIQUE LA English DT Article C1 Univ Calif Irvine, Sch Social Ecol, Irvine, CA 92697 USA. Univ Calif Irvine, Dept Polit Sci, Irvine, CA 92697 USA. RP Matthew, RA, Univ Calif Irvine, Sch Social Ecol, Irvine, CA 92697 USA. AB Despite contentious debates within the field of environmental security, findings of the principal research projects undertaken in the 1990s suggest significant agreement about the process linking environmental change to conflict. This article offers a reconsideration of the theoretical arguments unifying much of the research in environmental security, and argues that cases must extend their time frames considerably. The authors suggest that this would improve understanding of the social effects of environmental change, but is likely to revise mainstream arguments connecting environment and security in dramatic ways. By focusing on the often neglected role played by adaptive mechanisms, longer-range case studies tend not to support the claim that environmental stress is, an urgent security issue, viewing it instead as an issue with long-term theoretical and policy relevance to those concerned not only with security, but also with sustainable development and environmental justice. CR *N ATL TREAT ORG C, 1999, ENV SEC INT CONT *WOODR WILS INT CT, 2000, ENV CHANG SEC PROJ *WORLD COMM ENV DE, 1987, COMM FUT BAECHLER G, 1998, ENV CHANGE SECURITY, V4, P24 BARNETT J, 2001, MEANING ENV SECURITY BULLARD R, 1994, UNEQUAL PROTECTION E CROSBY AW, 1986, ECOLOGICAL IMPERIALI DABELKO GD, 1999, WILSON Q, V23, P14 DALBY S, 1999, CONTESTED GROUNDS SE DALBY S, 2000, ENV SECURITY DISCOUR DALY H, 1989, COMMON GOOD REDIRECT DESOMBRE ER, 2002, CONSERVING PEACE DESOYA I, 1999, ENV CHANGE SECURITY, V5, P15 DESSLER D, 1999, ENV CHANGE SECURITY, V5, P100 DEUDNEY D, 1990, MILLENNIUM-J INT ST, V19, P461 DEUDNEY D, 1999, CONTESTED GROUNDS SE DIAMOND J, 1997, GUNS GERMS STEEL FAT DIEHL P, 2001, ENV CONFLICT DOYLE M, 1995, CONTROVERSIES INT RE DOYLE M, 1997, WAYS WAR PEACE REALI EHRLICH PR, 1968, POPULATION BOMB ESTY D, 1999, ENV CHANGE SECURITY FAGAN B, 1999, FLOODS FAMINES EMPER GAULIN T, 2000, ENV CHANGE SECURITY, V6, P104 GLEICK PH, 1991, B ATOM SCI, V47, P16 GURR T, 1993, MINORITIES RISK GLOB HOMERDIXON T, 1998, ECOVIOLENCE LINKS EN HOMERDIXON T, 1999, ENV SECURITY VIOLENC HOMERDIXON T, 2000, INGENUITY GAP HOMERDIXON TF, 1991, INT SECURITY, V16, P76 HOMERDIXON TF, 1994, INT SECURITY, V19, P5 INGLEHART R, 1990, CULTURE SHIFT ADV IN JACKSON JBC, 2001, SCIENCE, V293, P629 JACKSON R, 2000, GLOBAL COVENANT HUMA KAPLAN RD, 1994, ATLANTIC MONTHLY FEB, V273, P44 KEOHANE R, 1989, INT I STATE POWER ES LEVY MA, 1995, ENV CHANGE SECURITY, V1, P44 LEVY MA, 1995, INT SECURITY, V20, P35 LONERGAN SC, 1999, ENV CHANGE ADAPTATIO LOWI MR, 2000, ENV SECURITY DISCOUR MALCOMSON S, 1990, TUTURANI POLITICAL J MATHEWS JT, 1989, FOREIGN AFF, V68, P162 MATTHEW R, 2000, J POLICY HIST, V12, P101 MATTHEW RA, 1999, ENV CHANGE ADAPTATIO MATTHEW RA, 2000, ENV CHANGE SECURITY, V6, P99 MATTHEW RA, 2001, ENV CHANGE SECURITY, V7, P17 MATTHEW RA, 2001, GLOBAL ENV POLITICS, V1, P48 MATTHEW RA, 2002, CONSERVING PEACE MCNEILL J, 2000, SOMETHING NEW SUN EN MEARSHEIMER JJ, 1990, INT SECURITY, V15, P5 MYERS N, 1993, ULTIMATE SECURITY EN NAUMAN N, 1996, RETHINKING SECURITY OPHULS W, 1977, ECOLOGY POLITICS SCA PELUSO N, 2001, VIOLENT ENV PONTING C, 1991, GREEN HIST WORLD ENV RUGGIE J, 1993, MULTILATERALISM MATT RUMMEL RJ, 1997, POWER KILLS DEMOCRAC RUSSETT B, 1993, GRASPING DEMOCRATIC SIMON J, 1984, RESOURCEFUL EARTH RE STEIN A, 1990, WHY NATIONS COOPERAT THOMPSON M, 2000, ENV SECURITY DISCOUR ULLMAN RH, 1983, INT SECURITY, V8, P129 WALZER M, 1992, JUST UNJUST WARS MOR WALZER M, 1993, SPHERES JUSTICE DEFE WALZER M, 1994, THICK THIN MORAL ARG WAPNER P, 1996, ENV ACTIVISM WORLD C WELSH BJ, 1990, US INTEREST RES GROW WOLF A, 1999, ENV CHANGE ADAPTATIO NR 68 TC 0 J9 CAN J POLIT SCI BP 857 EP 878 PY 2003 PD SEP VL 36 IS 4 GA 738AN UT ISI:000186264700007 ER PT J AU Kiparsky, M Brooks, C Gleick, PH TI Do regional disparities in research on climate and water influence adaptive capacity? SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 Univ Calif Berkeley, Energy & Resources Grp, Berkeley, CA 94720 USA. Pacific Inst, Oakland, CA 94612 USA. RP Kiparsky, M, Univ Calif Berkeley, Energy & Resources Grp, 310 Barrows Hall, Berkeley, CA 94720 USA. AB As part of a long-term effort to both improve access to information on climate change and freshwater resources, and to understand the state of the science, we compiled an electronic bibliography of scientific literature in that area. We analyzed the distribution of information on climatic impacts on freshwater resources, with an emphasis on differences between developed and developing regions as well as differences in the types and focus of research carried out among regions. There has been more research overall in developed countries than in the developing world. Proportionally more of the available research on natural and human systems pertains to developed regions, while most of the analysis done in developing countries is limited to higher-level climatology and hydrology. We argue that scientific information and understanding are important elements of the ability to adapt to potential climatic changes. The distribution of the scientific literature in our database suggests that the types of science most directly relevant to adaptive capacity are skewed towards developed countries, which may exacerbate existing disparities in adaptive capacity, and ultimately worsen the consequences of climatic impacts in developing countries. CR 2000, WORLD COMMISSION DAM *UNESCO, 2001, STAT SCI TECHN WORLD AGARWAL A, 2002, CLIMATE CHANGE POLIC BAER P, 2002, CLIMATE CHANGE POLIC BRISCOE J, 1996, WATER SUPPLY, V14, P1 BRISCOE J, 1999, WATER RESOURCES DEV, V15, P459 BULLOCK A, 2003, CLIMATE CHANGES WATE, P60 CAMPBELL DJ, 1999, HUM ECOL, V27, P377 CHALECKI EL, 1999, J AM WATER RESOUR AS, V35, P1657 CLARKE AR, 1998, COMPREHENSIVE BIOL C, V3, P1 GARFIELD E, 1989, SCIENTIST, V3, P12 HAMMER GL, 2000, APPL SEASONAL CLIMAT HOLMGREN M, 2004, PLOS BIOL, V2, P10 HOUGHTON JT, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 ILBERY BW, 1997, AGR RESTRUCTURING SU KAHN HR, 2000, WATER RESOURCES DEV, V16, P21 KATES RW, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P5 MARX W, 2001, SCIENTOMETRICS, V52, P59 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 METZ B, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 MOENCH M, 2004, ADAPTIVE CAPACITY LI NELSON DR, 2000, PRACTICING ANTHR, V22, P6 VASQUEZLEON M, 2003, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V13, P159 WALLNER A, 2003, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V13, P185 NR 24 TC 0 J9 CLIMATIC CHANGE BP 363 EP 375 PY 2006 PD AUG VL 77 IS 3-4 GA 081HJ UT ISI:000240307600012 ER PT J AU Yanez-Arancibia, A Day, JW TI Environmental sub-regions in the Gulf of Mexico coastal zone: the ecosystem approach as an integrated management tool SO OCEAN & COASTAL MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article C1 CONACYT, Inst Ecol AC, Coastal Ecosyst Unit, Xalapa 91070, Veracruz, Mexico. Louisiana State Univ, Sch Coast & Environm, Coastal Ecol Inst, Dept Oceanog & Coastal Sci, Baton Rouge, LA 70803 USA. RP Yanez-Arancibia, A, CONACYT, Inst Ecol AC, Coastal Ecosyst Unit, Km 2-5 Antigua Carretera Coatepec 351, Xalapa 91070, Veracruz, Mexico. AB Ecological sub-regions are a way of viewing coastal zone (CZ) regions that have been developed to enhance the capability of NGOs, governmental organizations, and academics to assess conditions and trends of the major ecosystems in the Gulf of Mexico (Gulf), mainly as a management tool for defining priority actions towards sustainable development. Major "geographical regions" at scale-1-level (1:40) are: (a) the warm-temperate Gulf, (b) the tropical Gulf, and (c) the Caribbean coast of Mexico related to the Gulf. At scale-3-level (1:5 million) in region "A," six distinct environmental sub-regions are defined: Western Florida Estuarine Area, Eastern Gulf Neritic, Mississippi Estuarine Area, Texas Estuarine Area, Laguna Madre Estuarine Area, and Western Gulf Neritic. In regions "B" and "C", 13 distinct environmental sub-regions are defined: Southeast Floridian Neritic, Florida Keys, Florida Bay, Shark River Estuarine Area, Dry Tortugas/Florida Keys Reef Tract, Southwest Floridian Neritic, Veracruzan Neritic, Tabascan Neritic, Campeche Yucatanean Inner Neritic, Campeche Yucatanean Outer Neritic, Contoyan Neritic, Cancunean Neritic, and SianKa'anean Neritic. From a "hydrological units" focus, five main sub-regions are defined: (a) The western Florida rivers and ground-water discharge system, (b) The Mississippi River basin and delta, (c) The Texas estuaries and Laguna Madre US-Mexico integrated by the Rio Bravo delta, (d) The Usumacinta/Grijalva River basin and delta, and (e) The Rio Hondo-Chetumal Bay in the Caribbean coast of Mexico. Each "geographical/hydrological" sub-region can be viewed as a discrete system which results from the interaction of geologic, geomorphologic, oceanographic, climatic, freshwater drainage, physical, chemical, coastal vegetation, wildlife, estuary-shelf interactions, and human factors. The ecosystem approach adopted as a management tool for environmental sub-regions is predicated on: (a) accepting that interactions between the environment (atmosphere, water, land, biota) and human activities (social, cultural, economics) are inseparable, (b) realizing that humans are the major driving forces behind most ecological change, (c) recognizing environmental thresholds and their importance and linkages to human activities, (d) incorporating the needs of current and future generations, and e) implementing a long-term perspective that is anticipatory, preventative, and sustainable. We suggest for each sub-region to develop key agenda-topics to strengthen ICM and answer questions on, e.g., (a) controls of primary production and water fertility in the coastal zone, (b) energetic pulsing as the basis for sustainable management, (c) vulnerability of the coastal zone to global climatic change, (d) coastal wetlands restoration, and (e) environmental sustainability and the economic development of the coastal zone. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 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RP Smithers, J, Univ Guelph, Dept Geog, Guelph, ON N1G 2W1, Canada. AB Technological research and development are among the most frequently advocated strategies for adapting agriculture to possible future changes in climate. However, while many statements point to the reliance that is placed on technology, and to the power of induced innovation, the actual process of agricultural research and development has received little explicit consideration in the context of climatic constraints on food production. This paper offers both a descriptive assessment and empirical analysis of the place of technology research and development in climate adaptation research and planning. Insights into the assumed role of technology are developed through a review of the published literature and recent commentary. The role of technological innovation in the handling of climatic risks is then explored empirically in an analysis of innovation research and development in the Ontario soybean industry. This reveals an array of technological innovations that have helped Ontario soybean-growers manage climatic challenges to date, as well as a range of potential constraints on the innovation process itself. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *COUNC AGR SCI TEC, 1992, 119 CAST *ONT SOYB GROW MAR, 1988, ANN REP *ONT SOYB GROW MAR, 1998, SOYB VAR DISTR *USDA, 1990, MISCELLANEOUS PUBLIC, V1482 BAZZAZ F, 1996, GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANG BEVERSDORF WD, 1995, HARVEST GOLD HIST FI BLAIN R, 1995, 22 U GUELPH DEP GEOG BRKLACICH M, 1992, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V20, P1 BRKLACICH M, 1997, AGR RESTRUCTURING SU, P351 BRYANT CR, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P181 BURTON I, 1978, ENV HAZARD, V1, P1 CARTER TR, 1994, IPCC TECHNICAL GUIDE CHIOTTI QP, 1997, AGR RESTRUCTURING SU, P167 CHIOTTI QP, 1995, J RURAL STUD, V11, P335 CROSSON PR, 1983, AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON, V9, P339 CROSSON PR, 1989, SCI AM SEP, P128 DAMOTA FS, 1978, 160 WMO DAY P, 1995, 7 NAT AGR BIOT COUNC, P79 DUMANSKI J, 1986, J SOIL WATER CONSERV, V41, P204 EASTERLING WE, 1992, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V59, P3 EASTERLING WE, 1996, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V80, P1 EDWARDS CA, 1993, AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON, V46, P99 GLANTZ MH, 1988, SOC RESPONSES REGION, P113 GLANTZ MH, 1991, ENVIRONMENT, V33, P10 GOODMAN RM, 1987, SCIENCE, V236, P48 HAYAMI Y, 1985, AGR DEV INT PERSPECT HOUGHTON JT, 1990, IPCC SCI ASSESSMENT JOSEPH A, 1981, CAN GEOGR, V23, P333 KAISER HM, 1993, AGR DIMENSIONS GLOBA, P136 KLASSEN S, 1998, CANADIAN WATER RESOU, V24, P61 LEWANDROWSKI JK, 1992, EC ISSUES GLOBAL CLI, P132 LINSTONE HA, 1997, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V54, P1 MAJOR DJ, 1991, J PROD AGRIC, V4, P606 NELLIS MD, 1987, DEMANDS RURAL LAND P, P71 PARRY ML, 1988, IMPACTS CLIMATE VARI, V1 REILLY JM, 1998, SOIL TILL RES, V47, P275 ROSENBERG NJ, 1981, CLIMATES IMPACT FOOD, P157 ROSENBERG NJ, 1982, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V4, P239 ROSENBERG NJ, 1991, RESOURCES FUTURE, V103, P17 ROSENBERG NJ, 1992, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V21, P385 ROSENBERG NJ, 1993, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V24, P7 ROSENZWEIG C, 1994, NATURE, V367, P133 RUTTAN VW, 1996, CAN J PLANT PATHOL, V18, P123 SCHWEGER C, 1991, ALTERNATIVE FUTURES, P1 SEDEROFF R, 1995, 7 NAT AGR BIOT COUNC, P71 SMIT B, 1993, 19 U GUELPH DEP GEOG SMIT B, 1999, IN PRESS MITIGATION SMIT B, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P223 SMITH MJ, 1997, BRAIN RES BULL, V42, P1 SMITHERS J, 1997, AGR RESTRUCTURING SU, P167 SMITHERS J, 1997, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V7, P129 SPALING H, 1995, AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON, V53, P279 SPEDDING CR, 1996, AGR CITIZEN WARRICK RA, 1980, CLIMATIC CONSTRAINTS, P93 WHITE ME, 1994, CORNELL VET, V84, P1 NR 55 TC 0 J9 APPL GEOGR BP 175 EP 197 PY 2001 PD APR VL 21 IS 2 GA 444FW UT ISI:000169390300005 ER PT J AU Olden, JD TI A species-specific approach to modeling biological communities and its potential for conservation SO CONSERVATION BIOLOGY LA English DT Article C1 Colorado State Univ, Dept Biol, Ft Collins, CO 80523 USA. Colorado State Univ, Grad Degree Program Ecol, Ft Collins, CO 80523 USA. RP Olden, JD, Colorado State Univ, Dept Biol, Ft Collins, CO 80523 USA. AB Community-level approaches to biological conservation are now recognized as a major advance in most current single-species conservation and management practices. Existing approaches for modeling bio-logical communities, have limited utility, however, because they commonly examine community metrics (e.g., species richness, assemblage "types") and consequently do not consider the identity of the species that compose the community. This is a critical shortcoming because the functional differences among species ultimately translate into the differential vulnerability of biological communities to natural and human-related environmental change. To address this concern I present a novel, species-specific approach to modeling communities using a multiresponse, artificial neural network. This provides an analytical approach that facilitates the development of a single, integrative model that predicts the entire species membership of a community while still respecting differences in the functional relationship between each species and its environment. I used temperate-lake fish communities to illustrate the utility of this modeling approach and found that predictions of community composition by the neural network were highly concordant with observed compositions of the 286 study lakes. Average similarity between observed and predicted community composition was 80% (22 out of the 27 species correctly classified), and the model predicted a significant portion of the community composition in 91% of the lakes. I discuss the importance of the lake habitat variables for predicting community composition and explore the spatial distribution of model predictions in light of recent species invasions. The proposed modeling approach provides a powerful, quantitative tool for developing community predictive models that explicitly consider species membership, and thus each species' functional role in the community. Such models will contribute significantly to the study and conservation of biological communities. 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NSW Natl Pk & Wildlife Serv, Armidale, NSW 2350, Australia. CSIRO Sustainable Ecosyst, Trop Forest Res Ctr, Atherton, Qld 4883, Australia. Rainforest Cooperat Res Ctr, Atherton, Qld 4883, Australia. RP Margules, CR, Univ Sheffield, Biodivers & Macroecol Grp, Dept Anim & Plant Sci, Sheffield S10 2TN, S Yorkshire, England. AB An objective of biodiversity conservation activities is to minimize the exposure of biodiversity features to threatening processes and to ensure, as far as possible, that biodiversity persists in the landscape. We discuss how issues of vulnerability and persistence can and should be addressed at all stages of the conservation planning and implementation process. Procedures for estimating the likelihood of persistence and for measuring degrees of vulnerability at different spatial and temporal scales using subjective assessments, rules of thumb and analytical and simulation models are reviewed. The application of information on vulnerability and persistence to conservation planning and management is discussed under the headings of natural dynamics, replication of protection, levels of representation, source and sink population structures, refuges and critical resources, reserve design, habitat fragmentation and levels of management. 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ISI:000176944900007 ER PT J AU McMichael, AJ Kovats, RS TI Climate change and climate variability: Adaptations to reduce adverse health impacts SO ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING AND ASSESSMENT LA English DT Article C1 Univ London London Sch Hyg & Trop Med, Dept Epidemiol & Populat Hlth, London WC1E 7HT, England. RP McMichael, AJ, Univ London London Sch Hyg & Trop Med, Dept Epidemiol & Populat Hlth, London WC1E 7HT, England. AB Global climate change is likely to have a range of consequences for human health as a result of disturbance or weakening of the biosphere's natural or human-managed Life support systems. The full range of potential human health impacts of global climate change is diverse and would be distributed differentially spatially and over time. Changes in the mortality toll of heatwaves and changes in the distribution of vector-borne infectious diseases may occur early. The public health consequences of sea level rise and of regional changes in agricultural productivity may not occur (or become apparent) for several decades. Vulnerability is a measure of both sensitivity to climate change and the ability to adapt in anticipation of, or in response to, its impacts. The basic modes of adaptation to climate-induced health hazards are biological, behavioural and social. Adaptation can be undertaken at the individual, community and whole-population levels. Adaptive strategies should not introduce new health hazards. Enhancement of the acknowledged public health infrastructure and intervention programmes is essential to reduce vulnerability to the health impacts of climate change. In the longer-term, fundamental improvements in the social and material conditions of life and in the reduction of inequalities within and between populations are required for sustained reduction in vulnerability to environmental health hazards. CR *IFRC, 1996, WORLD DIS REP 1996 WATSON RT, 1998, REGIONAL IMPACTS CLI, V1, P1 *WCHE, 1992, OUR PLAN OUR HLTH *WHO, 1993, GLOB STRAT MAL CONTR *WHO, 1996, CTDPR971 WHO *WHO, 1998, WHO COMM ID CONSTR S *WMO, 1997, M EXP CLIM HUM HLTH BLAIKIE PM, 1994, RISK NATURAL HAZARDS, V1, P1 BOUMA MJ, 1996, TROP MED INT HEALTH, V1, P86 BOUMA MJ, 1997, JAMA-J AM MED ASSOC, V278, P1772 BOUMA MJ, 1997, LANCET, V350, P1435 COLWELL RR, 1996, SCIENCE, V274, P2025 DAVIS DL, 1997, LANCET, V350, P1341 FRISANCHO R, 1991, HUMAN ADAPTATION FUN GLASS GE, 1993, APPL GIS TECHNOLOGY HAINES A, 1997, BRIT MED J, V315, P870 HALES S, 1996, LANCET, V348, P1664 HARDY IRB, 1996, LANCET, V347, P1739 HUNTER JM, 1993, PARASITIC DIS WATER KALKSTEIN LS, 1995, CLIMATE CHANGES INT, P124 KALKSTEIN LS, 1996, B AM METEOROL SOC, V77, P1519 KELLERMANN AL, 1996, NEW ENGL J MED, V335, P126 KLEIN RJT, 1997, ADAPTATION CLIMATE C KOVATS RS, 1998, REPORT WHO UNEP MRC LINDSAY S, 1998, IN PRESS B WHO, V78 MARTENS WJM, 1997, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V35, P145 MARTENS WJM, 1998, HLTH CLIMATE CHANGE MCMICHAEL AJ, 1996, WHOEHG967 MCMICHAEL AJ, 1997, AUST NZ J PUBL HEAL, V21, P425 MCMICHAEL AJ, 1997, ENVIRON MODEL ASSESS, V2, P129 MURRAY CJL, 1996, SCIENCE, V274, P740 NOIN D, 1994, ENV POPULATION CHANG, P363 OKE TR, 1997, APPL CLIMATOLOGY, P273 PATZ JA, 1996, ADAPTING CLIMATE CHA, P440 WOODWARD A, IN PRESS CLIMATE RES NR 35 TC 4 J9 ENVIRON MONIT ASSESS BP 49 EP 64 PY 2000 PD MAR VL 61 IS 1 GA 300UB UT ISI:000086270100004 ER PT J AU MARSTON, SA TI NATURAL HAZARDS RESEARCH - TOWARDS A POLITICAL-ECONOMY PERSPECTIVE SO POLITICAL GEOGRAPHY QUARTERLY LA English DT Review C1 UNIV COLORADO,INST BEHAV SCI,BOULDER,CO 80309. RP MARSTON, SA, UNIV COLORADO,DEPT GEOG,BOULDER,CO 80309. CR BAIRD A, 1975, DRU11 U BRADF OCC PA BURTON I, 1962, 75 U CHIC DEP GEOGR BURTON I, 1964, NAT RESOUR J, V3, P412 BURTON I, 1978, ENV HAZARD, V1, P1 CANNON T, 1983, PROGR HUMAN GEOGRAPH, V7, P145 CARR C, 1982, APR ANN M ASS AM GEO DEAR M, 1978, ENV PLANNING A, V10, P19 DWORKIN J, 1974, NHRWP26 U COL I BEH HARVEY D, 1977, RADICAL GEOGRAPHY HEWITT K, 1976, NATURAL HIST MAY, P30 JEFFREY S, 1981, NHRWP40 U COL I BEH KATES R, 1970, NHRWP14 U COL I BEH MARSTON S, 1983, POLITICAL EC EARTHQU MEILLASSOUX C, 1974, REV AFRICAN POLTIICA, V1, P27 OKEEFE P, 1975, AFRICAN ENV, P31 OKEEFE P, 1976, NATURE, V260, P566 PALM R, 1981, ENV BEHAVIOR MONOGRA, V32 PALM R, 1983, J ENV SYSTEMS, V12, P341 SAYER A, 1979, GEOFORUM, V10, P19 SIMON H, 1957, MODELS MAN SOCIAL RA SMITH N, 1980, ANTIPODE, V12, P30 SMITH N, 1982, UNPUB PRODUCTION NAT THOMPSON S, 1982, 45 U COL I BEH SCI W TORRY WI, 1979, CAN GEOGR, V23, P368 WADDELL E, 1977, HUM ECOL, V5, P69 WALKER RA, 1979, GEOGR REV, V69, P113 WATTS MJ, 1979, THESIS U MICHIGAN AN WATTS MJ, 1981, UNPUB POVERTY THEORY WHITE G, 1945, 29 U CHIC DEP GEOGR WHITE G, 1974, NATURAL HAZARDS LOCA WHITE G, 1981, CANADIAN GEOGRAPHER, V25, P286 WILDEN A, 1979, WORLD CO TOWN WILLIAMS P, 1978, AREA, V10, P236 WISNER B, 1977, DISASTERS, V1, P47 NR 34 TC 3 J9 POLIT GEOGR QUART BP 339 EP 348 PY 1983 VL 2 IS 4 GA RJ675 UT ISI:A1983RJ67500006 ER PT J AU Neukum, C Hotzl, H TI Standardization of vulnerability maps SO ENVIRONMENTAL GEOLOGY LA English DT Article C1 Univ Karlsruhe, Dept Appl Geol, D-7500 Karlsruhe, Germany. RP Neukum, C, Univ Karlsruhe, Dept Appl Geol, Kaiserstr 12, D-7500 Karlsruhe, Germany. AB Groundwater vulnerability assessment schemes are used for the estimation of potential groundwater contamination at different scales and on different administrative levels. However, the term vulnerability is not standardized and the available methods are not able to give a unique assessment of vulnerability creating thus uncertainty in the interpretation and in further application concerning decision creation processes. To judge the information of vulnerability maps certainly and to value the general trends of vulnerability assessment of different methods, four different vulnerability methods of the parametric system group have been applied on a karst area in southwestern Germany to perform a comparative assessment and correlation of these vulnerability assessment methods, namely DRASTIC, PI, EPIK, and GLA. It is shown that by means of simple statistical considerations the first highly different vulnerability maps could be made more coherent after reclassification. The reclassified vulnerability assessments show a more consistent vulnerability distribution pattern and provide the possibility of area-wide validation of the maps as the chosen vulnerability classification is theoretically connected to the mean transit time of percolation water and is largely independent of the applied vulnerability assessment method. CR ALLER L, 1987, DRASTIC STANDARDIZED DOERFLIGER N, 1998, PRACTICAL GUIDE GROU GOGU RC, 2000, ENVIRON GEOL, V30, P549 GOLDSCHEIDER N, 2000, Z ANGEW GEOL, V463, P157 GOLDSCHEIDER N, 2001, 7 C LIM HYDR FISS ME, P167 GOLDSCHEIDER N, 2003, HYDROGEOL J, V13, P555 GOLDSCHEIDER, 2002, THESIS SCH ANGEW GEO HOTLING B, 1995, GEOL JB, V63, P5 ISAAK EH, 1989, INTRO APPL GEOSTATIS TENHAFF G, 1987, J GEOL LANDESAMT BAD, V29, P209 ZWAHLEN F, 2004, VULNERABILITY RISK M NR 11 TC 0 J9 ENVIRON GEOL BP 689 EP 694 PY 2007 PD JAN VL 51 IS 5 GA 119SJ UT ISI:000243033300004 ER PT J AU Antle, JM Capalbo, SM Elliott, ET Paustian, KH TI Adaptation, spatial heterogeneity, and the vulnerability of agricultural systems to climate change and CO2 fertilization: An integrated assessment approach SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 Montana State Univ, Dept Agr Econ & Econ, Bozeman, MT 59717 USA. Univ Nebraska, Sch Nat Resources Sci, Lincoln, NE 68583 USA. Colorado State Univ, Nat Resource Ecol Lab, Ft Collins, CO 80523 USA. RP Antle, JM, Montana State Univ, Dept Agr Econ & Econ, POB 172920, Bozeman, MT 59717 USA. AB In this paper we develop economic measures of vulnerability to climate change with and without adaptation in agricultural production systems. We implement these measures using coupled, site-specific ecosystem and economic simulation models. This modeling approach has two key features needed to study the response of agricultural production systems to climate change: it represents adaptation as an endogenous, non-marginal economic response to climate change; and it provides the capability to represent the spatial variability in bio-physical and economic conditions that interact with adaptive responses. We apply this approach to the dryland grain production systems of the Northern Plains region of the United States. The results support the hypothesis that the most adverse impacts on net returns distributions tend to occur in the areas with the poorest resource endowments and when mitigating effects of CO2 fertilization and adaptation are absent. We find that relative and absolute measures of vulnerability depend on complex interactions between climate change, CO2 level, adaptation, and economic conditions such as relative output prices. The relationship between relative vulnerability and resource endowments varies with assumptions about climate change, adaptation, and economic conditions. Vulnerability measured with respect to an absolute threshold is inversely related to resource endowments in all cases investigated. CR *IPCC WORK GROUP 2, 2001, CLIM CHANG 2001 IMP, P89 *NASS, 1999, PUBL EST DAT *SCS, 1981, USDA AGR HDB, V296, P156 *SCS, 1994, STAT SOIL GEOGR DAT ADAMS RM, 1990, NATURE, V345, P219 ADAMS RM, 1993, CONTEMP POLICY ISSUE, V11, P76 ADAMS RM, 1999, IMPACT CLIMATE CHANG, P18 ANTLE J, 2002, ENVIRON POLLUT, V116, P413 ANTLE JM, 1994, J AGR RESOUR ECON, V19, P1 ANTLE JM, 2001, AM J AGR ECON, V83, P389 ANTLE JM, 2001, EC POLICY REFORMS SU, P169 ANTLE JM, 2002, COMPREHENSIVE ASSESS, P243 CAMPBELL CA, 1997, SOIL ORGANIC MATTER, P317 DALY C, 1994, J APPL METEOROL, V33, P140 DARWIN RF, 1995, 703 USDA EC RES SERV DARWIN RF, 2000, ENVIRON MODEL ASSESS, V5, P157 EASTERLING WE, 1993, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V24, P23 EASTERLING WE, 2001, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V51, P173 HANSEN JW, 2000, AGR SYST, V65, P43 HOUGHTON JT, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995 KAISER HM, 1993, AM J AGR ECON, V75, P387 KAISER HM, 1999, GLOBAL ENV CHANGE AG, P221 LEWANDROWSKI JK, 1999, LAND ECON, V75, P39 LOVELAND TR, 1991, PHOTOGRAMM ENG REM S, V57, P1453 MELILLO JM, 1995, GLOBAL BIOGEOCHEM CY, V9, P407 METHERELL AK, 1993, 4 USDAARS GREAT PLAI OJIMA DS, 1993, WATER AIR SOIL POLL, V70, P643 PARTON WJ, 1994, SSSA SPEC PUBL, V39, P147 PARTON WJ, 1995, GLOBAL CHANGE BIOL, V1, P13 PAUSTIAN KH, 1996, PLANT SOIL, V187, P351 PAUSTIAN KH, 1997, SOIL PROCESSES CARBO, P459 PAUSTIAN KH, 1999, AGROECOSYSTEM BOUNDA ROSENZWEIG C, 1994, IMPLICATIONS CLIMATE SCHIMMELPFENNIG D, 1999, GLOBAL ENV CHANGE AG, P193 NR 34 TC 0 J9 CLIMATIC CHANGE BP 289 EP 315 PY 2004 PD JUN VL 64 IS 3 GA 816HR UT ISI:000221101500002 ER PT J AU Devereux, S Naeraa, T TI Drought and survival in rural Namibia SO JOURNAL OF SOUTHERN AFRICAN STUDIES LA English DT Article C1 CARL BRO INT,COPENHAGEN,DENMARK. UNIV NAMIBIA,SOCIAL SCI DIV,WINDHOEK,NAMIBIA. RP Devereux, S, UNIV SUSSEX,INST DEV STUDIES,BRIGHTON BN1 9RH,E SUSSEX,ENGLAND. AB The 1992 drought in southern Africa reduced national grain harvests to less than half of 1991 levels, caused substantial livestock mortality and severely compromised rural livelihoods. This paper disaggregates the impact of the drought on three vulnerable socioeconomic groups in Namibia - smallholder crop farmers, livestock rearers and commercial farmworkers. A modified entitlement framework is adopted: as well as examining entitlement-generating strategies (including credit, overlooked by Sen), the paper also considers 'indirect' entitlement-protecting strategies, such as dietary change, consumption rationing and demographic adjustments at the household level. Although Namibia did not experience a decline in aggregate food availability during the drought - commercial imports plus food aid offset the production shock - hunger and malnutrition did affect certain groups who suffered 'direct entitlement declines' (crop farmers), 'trade entitlement declines' (livestock rearers) or 'derived destitution' (farmworkers), and were unable to secure adequate food through alternative sources such as extended family support, credit or food aid. Namibia's experience confirms the dangers of supply-side analyses of food security. When the composition of a country's food supply changes dramatically, there are likely to be some groups whose food security is negatively affected because they cannot be guaranteed access to available food, even when supplies are sufficient in aggregate terms. CR *DESA, CONS UN SADC APP MID *DESA, 1992, CONS UN SADC APP MID *EWFIU, 1992, Q FOOD SEC B *EWFIU, 1993, CROP FOOD SEC B *EWFIU, 1993, Q FOOD SEC B *NAT PLANN COMM, 1991 POP HOUS CENS P *NDTF, MONTHL REP NAT DROUG, P10 *NDTF, PLAN OP DROUGHT EM *NDTF, 1992, MONTHL REP NAT DROUG *NISER, 1992, NAM HOUS FOOD SEC RE *UNICEF, 1991, SIT AN CHILDR WOM NA, P59 *WORLD BANK, 1992, NAM POV ALL SUST GRO BOWBRICK P, 1986, FOOD POLICY, V11, P105 CORBETT J, 1988, WORLD DEV, V16, P1099 DEVEREUX S, 1993, IDS BULL-I DEV STUD, V24, P52 DEVEREUX S, 1993, SSD RES REPORT, V7 DEWAAL A, 1989, FAMINE KILLS DARFUR DREZE J, 1989, HUNGER PUBLIC ACTION, P23 NAERAA T, 1993, NISER RES REPORT, V12 OLSZEWSKI J, 1994, DROUGHT IMPACTS PREP, P35 SEN AK, 1986, FOOD POLICY, V11, P125 SEN AK, 1988, HUNGER ENTITLEMENTS, P8 SEN AK, 1981, POVERTY FAMINES ESSA, V1, P1 SHIVUTE N, DROUGHT IMPACTS PREP, P181 STEWART F, 1982, DISASTERS, V6, P2 SWIFT JJ, 1989, IDS B, V20, P2 WOLDEMESKEL G, 1990, WORLD DEV, V18, P493 NR 27 TC 7 J9 J S AFR STUD BP 421 EP 440 PY 1996 PD SEP VL 22 IS 3 GA VG654 UT ISI:A1996VG65400005 ER PT J AU Haque, CE TI Risk assessment, emergency preparedness and response to hazards: The case of the 1997 Red River Valley flood, Canada SO NATURAL HAZARDS LA English DT Article C1 Brandon Univ, Dept Geog, Brandon, MB R7A 6A9, Canada. RP Haque, CE, Brandon Univ, Dept Geog, Brandon, MB R7A 6A9, Canada. AB The prevention and/or mitigation of flood disasters requires continual research, numerous capital investment decisions, and high-quality maintenance and modifications of flood-control structures. In addition, institutional and private preparedness is needed. The experience of flood-control in North America has shown mixed outcomes: while flood frequency has declined during the last few decades, the economic losses have continued to rise. Recent catastrophic floods have also been linked to major structural interventions in the region. The flood diversions may cause harmful effects upon the floodplain inhabitants by influencing flood levels in areas which are not normally flood-prone. The increasing vulnerability of the floodplain inhabitants poses new challenges and raises questions concerning the existing risk assessment methods, institutional preparedness and responses to disaster-related public emergencies, and local-level public involvement in flood mitigation efforts. In the context of the catastrophic 1997 floods of the Red River Valley, Manitoba, Canada, this research focuses on two aspects of flood-related emergency governance and management: (i) the functions and effectiveness of control structures, and (ii) the roles, responsibilities and effectiveness of legislative and other operational measures. The study concludes that the flood-loss mitigation measures, both in terms of effects of control structures and institutional interventions for emergency evacuation, were not fully effective for ensuring the well-being and satisfaction of floodplain inhabitants. Although organizational preparedness and mobilization to cope with the 1997 flood emergency was considerable, their success during the onset of the flood event was limited. Lack of communication and understanding between institutions, a reluctance to implement up-to-date regulations, and minimal public participation in the emergency decision-making process all contributed to the difficulties experienced by floodplain inhabitants. 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What the conceptual framework of material and energy flow accounting (MEFA) can offer SO LAND USE POLICY LA English DT Review C1 Inst Interdisciplinary Studies Austrian Univ, Dept Social Ecol, A-1070 Vienna, Austria. Inst Interdisciplinary Studies Austrian Univ, Dept Anal Sci & Culture, A-1070 Vienna, Austria. Univ Nat Resources & Appl Life Sci, Inst Soil Res, A-1080 Vienna, Austria. RP Haberl, H, Inst Interdisciplinary Studies Austrian Univ, Dept Social Ecol, Schottenfeldgasse 29, A-1070 Vienna, Austria. AB Sustainability science analyses society nature interaction on a variety of spatial and temporal scales. By explaining the link between sustainability and socio-economic material and energy flows as well as with colonization of ecosystems, this paper introduces a conceptual framework for empirical applications featured in other contributions to this special issue. The paper discusses how the proposed material and energy flow accounting (MEFA) framework supports such analyses. This framework is an integrated toolbox to account for socio-economic metabolism and colonization of natural processes; above all, land use. We argue that, even though it is at present impossible to define precision sustainability thresholds with respect to many material and energy flows, the MEFA framework is a valuable tool because it tracks these flows in a consistent manner for regions of any scale over time. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 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RP Gardner, JS, Univ Manitoba, Winnipeg, MB R3T 2N2, Canada. AB Hazardous processes, including floods, landslides, soil erosion, and debris flows, are common in the Himalaya. Deforestation has been held responsible for increasing risk from such hazards in the Indian context for more than a century. The deforestation-hazard linkage in the Kullu District of Himachal Pradesh is examined. Evidence suggests that the extent of forest cover has altered little over 150 years and that hazardous processes recur in much the same locations, with similar frequency and magnitude, except where road construction has increased slope instability. Nonetheless, population growth and economic development, especially since 1990, have increased vulnerability to hazards. 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RP Myers, N, Univ Oxford Green Coll, Upper Meadow,Old Rd, Oxford OX3 8SZ, England. AB There is a new phenomenon in the global arena: environmental refugees. These are people who can no longer gain a secure livelihood in their homelands because of drought, soil erosion, desertification, deforestation and other environmental problems, together with the associated problems of population pressures and profound poverty. In their desperation, these people feel they have no alternative but to seek sanctuary elsewhere, however hazardous the attempt. Not all of them have Red their countries, many being internally displaced. But all have abandoned their homelands on a semi-permanent if not permanent basis, with little hope of a foreseeable return. In 1995, environmental refugees totalled at least 25 million people, compared with 27 million traditional refugees (people fleeing political oppression, religious persecution and ethnic troubles). The total number of environmental refugees could well double by the year 2010, and increase steadily for a good while thereafter as growing numbers of impoverished people press ever harder on overloaded environments. When global warming takes hold, there could be as many as 200 million people overtaken by sea-level rise and coastal flooding, by disruptions of monsoon systems and other rainfall regimes, and by droughts of unprecedented severity and duration. 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RP Buttel, FH, Univ Wisconsin, Madison, WI 53706 USA. CR *FAO, 1998, STAT FOOD AGR 1998 *USDA, 1999, HOUS FOOD SEC US *WCED, 1987, OUR COMM FUT ANDERSON JR, 1988, SCI FOOD ARAGHI F, 1999, HUNGRY PROFIT ARAGHI FA, 1995, SOCIOL QUART, V36, P337 BARRACLOUGH S, 1991, END HUNGER BROWN LR, 1995, WHO WILL FEED CHINA BROWN LR, 1999, STATE WORLD 1999 BUSCH L, 1991, PLANTS POWER PROFIT BUTTEL FH, 1989, FOOD NATURAL RESOURC, P325 CLARK J, 1991, DEMOCRATIZING DEV DEOSE LF, 1998, WHOS HUNGARY DO WE K DEROSE LF, 1998, WHOS HUNGRY DO WE KN, P92 DREZE J, 1989, HUNGER PUBLIC ACTION DREZE J, 1995, POLITICAL EC HUNGER EBERSTADT N, 1995, TRUE STATE PLANET, P7 FARRINGTON J, 1993, RELUCTANT PARTNERS N FIELD JO, 1993, CHALLENGE FAMINE KATES RW, 1998, HUNGER REPORT 1988 KRIMSKY S, 1996, AGR BIOTECHNOLOGY EN LAPPE FM, 1998, WORLD HUNGER 12 MYTH MACKINTOSH M, 1989, GENDER CLASS RURAL T MACKINTOSH M, 1990, FOOD QUESTION PROFIT, P43 MCCOLLIM E, 2000, IN PRESS PROGRAM END MCCOLLIM E, 2000, PROGRAM END HUNGER MESSER E, 1998, WHOS HUNGARY DO WE K, P53 MILLMAN SR, 1998, WHOS HUNGARY HOW DO, P131 NELSON P, 1999, CHANGING POLITICS HU, P20 PINSTRUPANDERSE.P, 1997, WORLD FOOD SITUATION POPPENDIECK J, 1998, SWEET CHARITY RIKER JV, 1999, CHANGING POLITICS HU, P90 RIKER JV, 2000, IN PRESS PROGRAM END ROSSET P, 1999, POLICY BRIEF SEN AK, 1981, POVERTY FAMINES ESSA, V1, P1 SHAPOURI S, 1999, FOOD SECURITY ASSESS SIMON J, 1981, ULTIMATE RESOURCE SINGER M, 1999, ATLANTIC MONTHLY, V284, P22 SWIFT J, 1989, IDS B, V20, P8 UVIN P, 1996, HUNGER REPORT 1995, P1 VAUGHAN M, 1987, STORY AFRICAN FAMINE WATTS MJ, 1993, PROG HUM GEOG, V17, P43 YOUNG EM, 1997, WORLD HUNGER NR 43 TC 2 J9 CONTEMP SOCIOL BP 13 EP 27 PY 2000 PD JAN VL 29 IS 1 GA 300EV UT ISI:000086240600004 ER PT J AU Beck, MB TI Vulnerability of water quality in intensively developing urban watersheds SO ENVIRONMENTAL MODELLING & SOFTWARE LA English DT Article C1 Univ Georgia, Warnell Sch Forest Resources, Athens, GA 30602 USA. RP Beck, MB, Univ Georgia, Warnell Sch Forest Resources, Athens, GA 30602 USA. AB As cities grow they first impose substantial stress on their surrounding water environment, but then, as comprehensive wastewater infrastructure is installed. much of that stress is removed. It becomes possible to talk of rehabilitated watersheds. in which the river network, with its re-invigorated ecological health, passes through the urban landscape of (now) potentially intense polluting activities. Surface water quality becomes vulnerable to the transient pollution events arising from all manner of accidents. faults. failures, and contaminated-runoff events associated with the city's metabolism. including unreliability in the performance of its wastewater infra structure. The paper examines the role of High-Performance Integrated Control (H-PIC)-a combination of real-time control (RTC) and Integrated Urban Water Management (IUWM)-as an approach essential to managing water quality in such intensively developing watersheds. Rather than promoting H-PIC as the logical stage of operations that will follow planning. design, and construction in the life cycle of an infrastructure, discussion is set in the context of the sustainability of cities. in particular, in association with a measure of sustainability expressed in terms of the frequency spectrum of disturbances to which the aquatic environment is subject. In this more strategic setting, it is argued that control engineering (for achieving H-PIC) should be seen as having relevance beyond merely its conventional interpretation of closed-loop unit-process; automation, e.g., in opening up analyses of the stability and ecological resilience of an entire urban water infrastructure. It is acknowledged that "integration", as in IUWM and H-PIC, is likely to be realized in practice. because of the need for it expressed in the highest political circles of the sustainability debate. Given this, the paper examines the implications of the ongoing shift-from the technocracy of the past century to the democracy of stakeholder participation in the present century-for the more widespread use of information and communication technologies in managing water quality in urban water environments. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 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C, 1977, MAN ENV SYSTEMS, V7, P3 TRETTER F, 1976, HUMANOKOLOGISCHE BLA, P89 TRETTER F, 1976, INT M HUMAN ECOLOGY, V2, P475 TRIANDIS HC, 1973, ANNU REV PSYCHOL, V24, P355 TUAN YF, 1978, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V68, P363 ULRICH RS, 1977, MAN ENV SYSTEMS, V7, P279 UNWIN K, 1975, T I BRIT GEOGRAPHERS, V66, P130 VITAFINZI C, 1970, P PREHIST SOC, V36, P1 VONFOERSTER H, 1973, ENV DESIGN RES, V2, P35 VONUEXKULL J, 1920, THEORETISCHE BIOL WEICHHART P, 1975, GEOGRAPHIE UMBRUCHT WEICHHART P, 1979, GEOJOURNAL, V3, P523 WHYTE AVT, 1977, MAB5 TECHN NOT WICKER AW, 1972, BEHAV SCI, V17, P499 WOHLWILL JF, 1974, HUM ECOL, V2, P127 WOLFF WY, 1976, INT M HUMAN ECOLOGY, V1, P173 WRIGHT HF, 1950, METHODS PSYCHOLOGICA YOUNG GL, 1974, ADV ECOL RES, V8, P1 ZUBE EH, 1974, MAN ENV SYSTEMS, V4, P245 NR 133 TC 2 J9 MITT OSTERR GEOGR GES BP 49 EP 69 PY 1980 VL 122 IS 1 GA KE307 UT ISI:A1980KE30700002 ER PT J AU Kates, RW TI Cautionary tales: Adaptation and the global poor SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Article RP Kates, RW, RR1,Box 169B, Trenton, ME 04605 USA. AB Many who study global change, particularly from industrialized countries, are optimistic about the capacity of agriculture to successfully adapt to climate change. This optimism is based on historic trends in yield increases, on the spread of cropping systems far beyond their traditional agroecological boundaries, and the inherent flexibility of systems of international trade. Analysis of the success (or in rare cases, failure) of adaptation is by analogy-either to analogous socioeconomic or technological change or to short term environmental change. Such studies have been limited to industrialized countries. This paper uses five analogs from developing countries to examine potential adaptation to global climate change by poor people. Two are studies of comparative developing country responses to drought, flood, and tropical cyclone and to the Sahelian droughts of the 1970s and 80s that illustrate adaptations to climate and weather events:. Two address food production and rapid population growth in South Asia and Africa. Three types of adaptive social costs are considered: the direct costs of adaptation, the costs of adapting to the adaptations, and the costs of failing to adapt. A final analog reviews 30 village-level studies for the role that these social costs of adaptation play in perpetuating poverty and environmental degradation. CR BLAIKIE PM, 1994, RISK NATURAL HAZARDS, V1, P1 BOHLE HG, 1994, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V4, P37 BORLAUG NE, 1971, 35 PRB BURTON I, 1978, ENV HAZARD, V1, P1 BURTON I, 1997, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V20, P1 DALBY D, 1977, DROUGHT AFRICA, V2 DOWNING J, 1987, DROUGHT FAMINE AFRIC DOWNING TE, 1997, MITIGATION ADAPTATIO, V2, P19 EASTERLING WE, 1996, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V80, P1 FISCHER B, 1894, ERGEBNISSE PLANKTON, V4, P1 GLAESER B, 1987, GREEN REVOLUTION REV GLANTZ MH, 1987, PLANNING DROUGHT RED, P297 GLANTZ MH, 1988, SOC RESPONSES REGION GLANTZ MH, 1988, SOC RESPONSES REGION, P113 GRIFFIN KB, 1974, POLITICAL EC AGRARIA HAZELL PBR, 1991, GREEN REVOLUTION REC JIRSTROM M, 1996, WAKE GREEN REVOLUTIO KARITN MB, 1986, GREEN REVOLUTION INT KATES RW, 2 CLARK ENV DEV CTR KATES RW, 1980, 32 USAID OFF EV KATES RW, 1981, MAZINGIRA, V5, P72 KATES RW, 1991, RR912 BROWN U AS FEI KATES RW, 1992, ENVIRONMENT, V34, P4 LIPTON M, 1989, NEW SEEDS POOR PEOPL ROSENBERG NJ, 1993, INTEGRATED IMPACT AS SHIVA V, 1991, ECOLOGIST, V21, P57 SOMRVILLE CM, 1986, DROUGH AID SAHEL DEC TURNER BL, 1993, POPULATION GROWTH AG WATSON RT, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, V1, P1 WISNER BG, 1977, THESIS CLARK U WORCE NR 30 TC 6 J9 CLIMATIC CHANGE BP 5 EP 17 PY 2000 PD APR VL 45 IS 1 GA 323WX UT ISI:000087588900003 ER PT J AU Neuburger, M TI The vulnerability of smallholders in degraded areas. The political ecology of frontier processes in Brazil SO GEOGRAPHISCHE ZEITSCHRIFT LA German DT Article C1 Univ Tubingen, Inst Geog, Forsch Schwerpunkt Latein Amer, D-72074 Tubingen, Germany. RP Neuburger, M, Univ Tubingen, Inst Geog, Forsch Schwerpunkt Latein Amer, Holderlinstr 12, D-72074 Tubingen, Germany. AB The investigation of the interrelations between socio-economic and political structures on the one hand and ecological processes on the other is gaining increasing significance in geographic development research, especially in the field of political ecology. In the case of the study presented here, the concepts of vulnerability, fragility and criticality are used. In studies of rural areas, the so-called land manager represents the main focus of interest. This is due to the fact that the land manager forms the nexus between ecology and socio-economy at the local level. In this context, pioneer frontiers serve as refuge areas for displaced groups. However, with their incorporation into the national economic and social structures this function is rapidly lost again. In this paper, the decisive factors and processes of the development of the frontier are investigated by taking a case-study from the Brazilian Mid-West as an example. Ecological processes of degradation in the areas of the pioneer frontiers of the Amazon region can be understood as the result of global, national and regional-local structures due to which particularly vulnerable groups - in this case peasants - are displaced into ecologically fragile areas in the course of time. The survival-oriented exploitation of the natural resources in this refuge area corresponds with the peasants' logic of action. This logic, which must be seen as a survival strategy, is based on decisions governed by vulnerability and constraints in the actual everyday situation. CR BLAIKIE PM, 1987, LAND DEGRADATION SOC BLAIKIE PM, 1994, RISK NATURAL HAZARDS, V1, P1 BOHLE HG, 1998, RUNDBRIEF GEOGRAPHIE, V149, P13 BRYANT RL, 1997, 3 WORLD POLITICAL EC COY M, 1993, TUBINGER BERTRAGE GE, P9 COY M, 1999, FRENTES PIONEIRAS AM DEAN W, 1996, FERRO FOGO HIST DEVA FERNANDES B, 1996, MST FORMACAO TERRITO GEIST H, 1992, ERDE, V123, P283 GOUDIE A, 1994, MENSCH UMWELT EINFUH GUIDON N, 1992, HIST INDIOS BRASIL S, P37 HALL A, 1997, SUSTAINING AMAZONIA HEWITT K, 1997, REGIONS RISK GEOGRAP, V1, P1 HOLLING CS, 1980, INT SERIES APPL SYST, V3 KASPERSON RE, 1995, REGIONS RISK COMP TH, P1 KOHLHEPP G, 1979, AGRARREFORM DRITTEN, P471 KOHLHEPP G, 1987, AMAZONIEN PROBLEMRAU KOHLHEPP G, 1990, RAUMLICHE STRUKTUR B, P45 LUCKER R, 1986, TUBINGER BEITRAGE GE, P2 MANSHARD W, 1995, UMWELT ENTWICKLUNG T MARGOLIS M, 1977, AM ETHNOL, V4, P42 MARTINS J, 1990, OS CAMPONESES POLITI MARTINS JD, 1997, FRONTEIRA DEGRADACO PAINTER M, 1995, SOCIAL CAUSES ENV DE PEET R, 1996, LIBERATION ECOLOGIES REMPPIS M, 1998, TUBINGER BEITRAGE GE, V119, P87 ROOSEVELT A, 1992, HIST INDIOS BRASIL, P53 SCHMINK M, 1986, LANDS RISK 3 WORLD L, P38 SCHMINK M, 1992, CONTESTED FRONTIERS WOORTMANN EF, 1997, TRABALHO TERRA LOGIC NR 30 TC 0 J9 GEOGR Z BP 21 EP 35 PY 2000 VL 88 IS 1 GA 382LD UT ISI:000165823000002 ER PT J AU Malhi, Y Phillips, OL TI Tropical forests and global atmospheric change: a synthesis SO PHILOSOPHICAL TRANSACTIONS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY OF LONDON SERIES B-BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES LA English DT Article C1 Univ Leeds, Sch Geog, Earth & Biosphere Inst, Leeds LS2 9JT, W Yorkshire, England. Univ Edinburgh, Sch Geosci, Edinburgh EH9 3JU, Midlothian, Scotland. RP Phillips, OL, Univ Leeds, Sch Geog, Earth & Biosphere Inst, Leeds LS2 9JT, W Yorkshire, England. AB We present a personal perspective on the highlights of the Theme Issue 'Tropical forests and global atmospheric change'. We highlight the key findings on the contemporary rate of climatic change in the tropics, the evidence-gained from field studies-of large-scale and rapid change in the dynamics and biomass of old-growth forests, and evidence of how climate change and fragmentation can interact to increase the vulnerability of plants and animals to fires. A range of opinions exists concerning the possible cause of these observed changes, but examination of the spatial 'fingerprint' of observed change may help to identify the driving mechanism(s). Studies of changes in tropical forest regions since the last glacial maximum show the sensitivity of species composition and ecology to atmospheric changes. Model studies of change in forest vegetation highlight the potential importance of temperature or drought thresholds that could lead to substantial forest decline in the near future. During the coming century, the Earth's remaining tropical forests face the combined pressures of direct human impacts and a climatic and atmospheric situation not experienced for at least 20 million years. Understanding and monitoring of their response to this atmospheric change are essential if we are to maximize their conservation options. CR *IPCC, 2001, CLIM CHANG 2001 SCI BAKER TR, 2004, PHILOS T ROY SOC B, V359, P353 BARLOW J, 2004, PHILOS T ROY SOC B, V359, P367 BEERLING DJ, 2000, PALAEOGEOGR PALAEOCL, V161, P395 CHAMBERS JQ, 2004, PHILOS T ROY SOC B, V359, P463 CHAVE J, 2004, PHILOS T ROY SOC B, V359, P409 CLARK DA, 2004, PHILOS T ROY SOC B, V359, P477 COWLING SA, 2004, PHILOS T ROY SOC B, V359, P539 CRAMER W, 2004, PHILOS T ROY SOC B, V359, P331 CRUTZEN PJ, 2002, NATURE, V415, P23 KORNER C, 2004, PHILOS T ROY SOC B, V359, P493 LAURANCE WF, 2004, PHILOS T ROY SOC B, V359, P345 LEWIS SL, 2004, PHILOS T ROY SOC B, V359, P421 LEWIS SL, 2004, PHILOS T ROY SOC B, V359, P437 MALHI Y, 2002, J VEG SCI, V13, P439 MALHI Y, 2004, PHILOS T ROY SOC B, V359, P311 MAYLE FE, 2004, PHILOS T ROY SOC B, V359, P499 MORLEY RJ, 2000, ORIGIN EVOLUTION TRO NEMANI RR, 2003, SCIENCE, V300, P1560 PENNINGTON RT, 2004, PHILOS T ROY SOC B, V359, P515 PHILLIPS OL, 1994, SCIENCE, V263, P954 PHILLIPS OL, 1998, SCIENCE, V282, P439 PHILLIPS OL, 2002, NATURE, V418, P770 PHILLIPS OL, 2004, PHILOS T ROY SOC B, V359, P381 PRENTICE IC, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, P183 WEISHAMPEL JF, 2001, GLOBAL ECOL BIOGEOGR, V10, P389 WING SL, 2003, GSA SPEC PAP, V369, P425 ZACHOS JC, 2003, SCIENCE, V302, P1551 NR 28 TC 0 J9 PHIL TRANS ROY SOC LONDON B BP 549 EP 555 PY 2004 PD MAR 29 VL 359 IS 1443 GA 808BR UT ISI:000220545100017 ER PT J AU Loucks, DP TI Quantifying trends in system sustainability SO HYDROLOGICAL SCIENCES JOURNAL-JOURNAL DES SCIENCES HYDROLOGIQUES LA English DT Article RP Loucks, DP, CORNELL UNIV,ITHACA,NY 14853. AB This paper focuses on the measurement of the relative sustainability of renewable water resource systems. Being able to quantify sustainability makes it possible to compare alternative plans and policies, and to include sustainability as one of the multiple objectives to be considered when making decisions regarding the design and operation of these systems. Commonly used measures of reliability, resilience and vulnerability, based on subjective judgements concerning what is acceptable or unacceptable with respect to multiple system performance indicators, are combined into an index and used as a measure of changes in relative system sustainability over time. CR *UN, 1991, UNDP S DELFT 3 5 JUN *WCED, 1987, OUR COMM FUT BRUNDTL BAAN JA, 1994, P INT UNESCO S WAT R, V4, P63 FALKENMARK M, 1988, STOCKHOLM STUDIES NA, V1, P71 GOODLAND R, 1991, 46 WORLD BANK NORGAARD RB, 1991, ECOLOGICAL EC SCI MA, P88 PEZZEY J, 1992, 2 WORLD BANK TOMAN MA, 1991, ENR19105 NR 8 TC 12 J9 HYDROLOG SCI J BP 513 EP 530 PY 1997 PD AUG VL 42 IS 4 GA XP220 UT ISI:A1997XP22000007 ER PT J AU Rotter, R Van de Geijn, SC TI Climate change effects on plant growth, crop yield and livestock SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Review C1 DLO, Res Inst Agrobiol & Soil Fertil, NL-6700 AA Wageningen, Netherlands. DLO, Winand Staring Ctr Integrated Land Soil, NL-6700 AC Wageningen, Netherlands. Int Rice Res Inst, Manila 1099, Philippines. RP Van de Geijn, SC, DLO, Res Inst Agrobiol & Soil Fertil, POB 14, NL-6700 AA Wageningen, Netherlands. AB A review is given of the state of knowledge in the field of assessing climate change impacts on agricultural crops and livestock. Starting from the basic processes controlling plant growth and development, the possible impacts and interactions of climatic and other biophysical variables in different agro-environments are highlighted. Qualitative and quantitative estimations of shifts in biomass production and water relations, inter-plant competition and crop species adaptability are discussed. Special attention is given to the problems encountered when scaling up physiological responses at the leaf- and plant level to yield estimates at regional to global levels by using crop simulation models in combination with geo-referenced, agro-ecological databases. Some non-linear crop responses to environmental changes and their relations to adaptability and vulnerability of agro-ecosystems are discussed. 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WILKERSON GG, 1989, CROP SCI, V29, P721 WILLIAMS JR, 1984, T ASAE, V27, P129 WILSON JR, 1982, NUTR LIMITS ANIMAL P, P111 WOLF J, 1993, EUR J AGRON, V2, P281 WOLF J, 1995, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V29, P229 WOLFE DW, 1993, AGR DIMENSIONS GLOBA, P153 WONG SC, 1979, OECOLOGIA BERL, V44, P68 WOODWARD FI, 1993, VEGETATION DYNAMICS, P71 YOSHIDA S, 1981, FUNDAMENTALS RICE CR NR 178 TC 6 J9 CLIMATIC CHANGE BP 651 EP 681 PY 1999 PD DEC VL 43 IS 4 GA 248KD UT ISI:000083272900002 ER PT J AU Kates, RW Parris, TM TI Long-term trends and a sustainability transition SO PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA LA English DT Article C1 ISciences, LLC, Jamaica Plain, MA 02130 USA. RP Kates, RW, 33 Popple Point, Trenton, ME 04605 USA. AB How do long-term global trends affect a transition to sustainability? We emphasize the "multitrend" nature of 10 classes of trends, which makes them complex, contradictory, and often poorly understood. Each class includes trends that make a sustainability transition more feasible as well as trends that make it more difficult. Taken in their entirety, they serve as a checklist for the consideration of global trends that impact place-based sustainability studies. 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Univ Chicago, Ctr Adv Radiat Sources, Chicago, IL 60637 USA. RP Smith, JV, Univ Chicago, Dept Geophys Sci, 5734 S Ellis Ave, Chicago, IL 60637 USA. AB Dangers from natural hazards have been characterized quantitatively by national and international committees of geoscientists based on technical advances in geochemistry and geophysics (sensu lato). The current status of knowledge on natural hazards is reviewed with particular emphasis on comet/asteroid impact, earthquakes, and volcanoes. All these hazards are survivable by the world's population if appropriate measures are taken over the next century and millennium. Ideas for mitigation include: general use of weathered volcanic ash and power-station fly ash to make pozzolana cement for strengthening buildings, and stabilizing weak ground and hillsides prone to slumping; long-term storage of grains under nitrogen, together with other techniques for maintaining viability of stored food; drilling of tunnels under major cities to facilitate traffic flow, and for protection against impact of bolides and bombs; design of sea and lake fronts to guard against tsunamis from earthquakes and asteroid impact. The food-storage proposals could be tailored to help farmers obtain a regular income while producing a higher crop yield than needed for current food supply. The land modification plans would provide technical challenges and new business activities for civil engineers, lawyers, real-estate professionals, and city planners. It is truly tragic that genuine ideas for mitigation of natural hazards are being implemented at a snail's pace while funding for weapons nourishes around much of the world. The early development of my thinking on hazards is an example of the typical disconnection between "scientific expertise" and actual day-to-day planning decisions. As a farmer's boy interested in civil engineering and land planning in an ecological context, I summarize old and new ideas in an effort to bridge this disconnection, and facilitate the planned transfer of funding from weapons to actions that enhance human well being. Because the actions are international in their basic nature and ecological in character, I hope that they will help to generate a feeling of "One world that must be loved, not abused." We belong to one biological species, Homo supposedly sapiens sapiens. We must progress beyond tribal, ethnic, and other divisive matters associated with wars and civilian conflicts. The rich must help the poor. Geology and civil engineering can provide important worldwide cooperative connections. 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V350, P216 WILLIAMS H, 1979, VOLCANOLOGY WILSON CJN, 1997, NATURE, V385, P306 WILSON EK, 1997, CHEM ENG NEWS 0929, P30 WIND HG, 1987, IMPACT SEA LVEL RISE WOOD CA, 1984, T AM GEOPHYS UNION E, V65, P410 WOODS AW, 1995, REV GEOPHYS, V33, P495 WRIGHT TL, 2000, T AM GEOPHYS UNION E, V81, P101 WRIGHT TL, 2000, T AM GEOPHYS UNION E, V81, P106 YAROSHINSKAYA A, 1995, CHERNOBYL FORBIDDEN YASHINSKY M, 1998, 1552B US GEOL SURV YEATS RS, 1997, GEOLOGY EARTHQUAKES YEOMANS D, 2000, NATURE, V404, P829 YEOMANS DK, 1991, COMETS CHRONOLOGICAL YOUNG S, 1997, EOS T AM GEOPHYS UN, V78, P401 YOUNG S, 1999, GSA TODAY, V9, P1 YOUNG SR, 1997, SCIENCE, V276, P371 ZEN E, 2000, GSA TODAY, V8, P8 ZHAO DP, 1996, SCIENCE, V274, P1891 ZIELINSKI GA, 1996, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V23, P837 ZOLLO A, 1996, SCIENCE, V274, P592 ZREDAGOSTYNSKA G, 1997, J GEOPHYS RES-SOL EA, V102, P15039 NR 643 TC 2 J9 INT GEOL REV BP 617 EP 656 PY 2000 PD JUL VL 42 IS 7 GA 342VW UT ISI:000088666700003 ER PT J AU Lambin, EF TI Conditions for 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RP Lambin, EF, Univ Louvain, Dept Geog, Pl Louis Pasteur 3, B-1348 Louvain, Belgium. CR ANDERIES JM, 2004, ECOL SOC, V9, P18 BALMFORD A, 2002, SCIENCE, V297, P950 BERKES F, 2003, NAVIGATING SOCIAL EC, V1, P1 BERKHOUT F, 2002, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V12, P1 BLAIKIE P, 1987, LAND DEGRADATION SOC BOSERUP E, 1965, CONDITIONS AGR GROWT BRESSERS JTA, 2004, GOVERNANCE SUSTAINAB, P284 CLARK WC, 2003, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V100, P8059 DIAMOND J, 1994, P AM PHILOS SOC, V138, P363 DIAMOND J, 2005, COLLAPSE SOC CHOOSE DIETZ T, 2003, SCIENCE, V302, P1907 GEELS F, 2002, RES POLICY, V3, P1257 GEIST HJ, 2002, BIOSCIENCE, V52, P143 GEIST HJ, 2004, BIOSCIENCE, V54, P817 GORDON J, 2001, INDICATORS DECISION GOWDY J, 2005, GLOBAL ENV CHANGE GUNDERSON LH, 2002, PANARCHY UNDERSTANDI, V1, P1 HOLLING CS, 1973, ANNUAL REV ECOLOGY S, V4, P1 JANSSEN MA, 2004, ECOL SOC, V9, P6 KASPERSON JX, 1995, REGIONS RISK, V1, P1 MATHER AS, 2001, AGR TECHNOLOGIES TRO, P35 MRATENS P, 2002, TRANSITIONS GLOBALIS MYERS N, 2001, PERVERSE SUBSIDIES T OSTROM E, 1999, SCIENCE, V284, P278 RASKIN P, 2002, GREAT TRANSITION PRO REDMAN CL, 1999, HUMAN IMPACT ANCIENT RINDOS D, 1984, ORIGINS AGR EVOLUTIO ROTMANS J, 2001, J FUTURE STUDIES STR, V3, P1 SCHEFFER M, 2003, ECOSYSTEMS, V3, P493 TAINTER JA, 1988, COLLAPSE COMPLEX SOC TURNER BL, 2003, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V100, P8074 VELLINGA P, 1999, 12 IHDP WEISS H, 2001, SCIENCE, V291, P609 WILKINSON RG, 1973, POVERTY PROGR ECOLOG YOUNG OR, 2002, I DIMENSIONS ENV CHA NR 35 TC 3 J9 GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANGE BP 177 EP 180 PY 2005 PD OCT VL 15 IS 3 GA 960JC UT ISI:000231585500001 ER PT B AU Timmerman, P TI Vulnerability, Resilience and the Collapse of Society SO ENV MONOGRAPH LA English DT Book C1 University of Toronto, Institute of Environmental Studies, Toronto, Canada RP AB The impetus for this paper came from two sources. First, the concern for the development of a competent social component in the World Climate Program being undertaken by the World Meteorological Organization led to the following declaration by the World Climate Conference of one main objective of their Impact Study Program: Determining the characteristics of human societies at different levels of development and in different natural environments which make them either specially vulnerable or specially resilient to climatic variability and change and which also permit them to take advantage of the opportunities posed by such changes (WMO 1980). Admirable as this objective is, it is difficult not to see it as partaking in the general vagueness which attends much of climatic impact assessment at the present time, and which has been admirably described by Kates (1980): The underlying assumptions of models are poorly defined. Studies with widely varying subject matter are characterized under a common rubric of impact study. Techniques are poorly developed methodologically and are weakly integrated beyond the discipline in which they were first initiated. For example, it is hard to say just what “vulnerability” and ”resilience” are. One source of this paper, then, was a concern that some of the concepts coming to the forefront in the fast growing subject of climatic impact assessment. were under-examined. Some discussion of terms, concepts, and models - those often unconscious shapers of research frameworks - seemed advisable. Munn (1979) makes the distinction between a climate impact assessment and a climate impact study, of which the first is a policy-shaping document, and the second a research or applied study. It is worth taking steps to ensure that we are not falling between both these categories, and are instead about to embark on policy disguised as research. The second source for this paper was the particular concernofthe Atmospheric Environment Service (Environment Canada) that the Canadian Climate Program should be as effective as possible. Atmospheric Environment has a long and enlightened tradition of concern for climatic impacts and the welfare of the users of the meteorological imformation it provides. To this end, it has provided funding for projects at the Institute for Environmental Studies and elsewhere which attempt to bridge the gap between the technical and the social use of climatic information. In the present instance, it will be noted that, apart from a predominance of references to instances of climatic resilience and vulnerability, and the discussion in the last section of this paper, there is little here of direct or immediate relevance to the daily requirements of AES. On the one hand, one could ascribe this to the typical result of much of social science (to the despair of the “hard” scientist), which inevitably concludes that the problem is itself problematic; on the other, it could be that what is presented here is only one part of an immensely difficult attempt to say anything worthwhile about the relationship between climate and society - the charting of the interactions between a system indeterminate through sheer complexity, and a system indeterminate through sheer complexity and sheer humanity. CR BURTON I, 1978, ENV HAZARD, V1, P1 HOLLING CS, 1973, ANNUAL REV ECOLOGY S, V4, P1 RAPPAPORT RA, 1977, EVOLUTION SOCIAL SYS, V1, P49 WHITE GF, 1974, NATURAL HAZARDS LOCA, V1, P1 NR 3 TC 0 BP 1 EP 45 PY 1981 VL 1 IS 1 ER PT J AU Maynard, K Royer, JF TI Effects of "realistic" land-cover change on a greenhouse-warmed African climate SO CLIMATE DYNAMICS LA English DT Article C1 Meteo France, CNRM, F-31057 Toulouse 1, France. RP Maynard, K, Meteo France, CNRM, 42 Ave G Coriolis, F-31057 Toulouse 1, France. AB The primary goal of this investigation is to focus on a "realistic" scenario for simulating impacts on regional African climate of future deforestation in a greenhouse-warmed world. Combined effects of plausible land-cover change and greenhouse warming are assessed by 'time-slice' simulations with an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) for the middle of the twenty first century. Three "time-slice" integrations have been performed with the ARPEGE-Climat AGCM incorporating a zooming technique to achieve a resolution of about 100 km over Africa. A control run for the current climate is forced by observed climatological sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and the observed vegetation distribution is specified from a new vegetation database, in order to improve the geographical distribution and properties of the vegetation cover. Future SST changes are derived from a transient coupled atmosphere-ocean simulation for scenario B2 of the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Future vegetation changes are specified from a simulation of scenario B2 with the Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment (IMAGE) developed at the National Institute of Public Health and the Environment in the Netherlands (RIVM). The results show that land surface processes can locally modulate greenhouse warming effects for African climate, with reductions of surface transpiration and small increases of surface temperature. Deforestation of tropical Africa has overall only a marginal effect on precipitation because of a compensatory increase in moisture convergence. Energy budget analyses show that increases in surface temperature are produced both by increases of greenhouse gases (GHG) concentration from the increase in downward atmospheric longwave radiation, and by African tropical deforestation from the resulting reduction in transpiration. This study indicates that realistic land-use changes, though of smaller amplitude than greenhouse gas forcing, may have a small regional effect in projections of future climate. 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Minist Water Conservancy & Power, Chengdu 610041, Peoples R China. Univ Elect Sci & Technol China, Sch Management, Chengdu 610054, Peoples R China. RP Fang, YP, Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Mt Hazards & Environm, Chengdu 610041, Peoples R China. AB Mountain disaster occurrence has a close relationship with human activities. It is the human activity that aggravates the mountain disasters and environment deterioration. Therefore, during the process of social and economic development, regulating human behaviour, reasonably utilizing and protecting natural resources and environment by means of controlling the human approach, i.e. industrial economy, regional economy allocation, river basin economy, scientific technology and population resettlement, are important approaches to the prevention and management of mountain disasters. The analysis of several cases in China shows that effective combination of civil engineering measures, bio-engineering measures and human behaviour could play an important role in ensuring mountain disaster prevention and environmental sustainable development. However, in the long run, prevention of mountain disasters and environmental deterioration is just regulating management of the human effect and human behaviour, but not civil engineering and bio-engineering measures. In 1994, the State Council, China, approved 'China 21st Agenda', that regarded disaster prevention and mitigation as important national policies with the goals of ensuring country, society, economy development, and confirmed decreasing nature human disaster losses as the total aim and action plan of country disaster prevention and mitigation management. CR *STAT ENV PROT BUR, 1991, EC CHIN, P45 *STAT ENV PROT BUR, 1995, ECOAGR CULT PATT TEC, P87 BLAIKIE PT, 1994, RISK NATURAL HAZARDS FANG YP, 2001, ECOLOGICAL EC, V3, P21 FANG YP, 2001, J MOUNTAIN SCI, V19, P75 GAO WX, 1997, NATURAL HAZARDS HIST LI XK, 1996, MOUNTAIN RES, V13, P7 PAUDEL GS, ENV MANAGEMENT, V28, P789 TANG BX, 1996, MOUNTAIN RES, V14, P103 WANG KL, 1999, J MOUNTIAN SCI, V2, P128 WHITE GF, 1973, DIRECTIONS GEOGRAPHY WU JS, 1997, MOUNTAIN HAZARDS PRE, P1 YANG KZ, 1991, HUMAN GEOGRAPHY, V2, P13 ZHONG DL, 1997, MOUNTAIN RESOURCE EX NR 14 TC 0 J9 INT J SUSTAIN DEV WORLD ECOL BP 169 EP 180 PY 2004 PD JUN VL 11 IS 2 GA 844KJ UT ISI:000223156700005 ER PT J AU Araujo, JN Mackinson, S Stanford, RJ Sims, DW Southward, AJ Hawkins, SJ Ellis, JR Hart, PJB TI Modelling food web interactions, variation in plankton production, and fisheries in the western English Channel ecosystem SO MARINE ECOLOGY-PROGRESS SERIES LA English DT Article C1 Univ Leicester, Dept Biol, Leicester LE1 7RH, Leics, England. Fisheries Lab, CEFAS, Lowestoft NR33 0HT, Suffolk, England. Devon Wildlife Trust, Exeter EX4 4DA, Devon, England. Marine Biol Assoc United Kingdom Lab, Plymouth PL1 2PB, Devon, England. RP Hart, PJB, Univ Leicester, Dept Biol, Leicester LE1 7RH, Leics, England. AB To explore the contributions that fishing, trophic interactions and plankton production make to explanations of the observed variation of higher trophic (principally fish) levels in the western English Channel ecosystem, Ecosim simulations were run from 1973 to 1999 using the most complete data set yet assembled. The results indicate that a bottom-up mechanism plays an important role in the system production. Inclusion of a primary producer biomass forcing term, estimated from empirical data, improved the goodness of fit of the model estimates to the available biomass data by about 25% compared to fitting using only the series of fishing mortalities. Model fitting was further improved by changing the so-called vulnerability parameters, causing an overall improvement of 62% in explained variation. Incorporating the new vulnerability values, the model was used to estimate a primary production anomaly function to replace the primary producer biomass forcing in driving the model simulations. In this scenario, the model estimated a series of values for primary producer abundance that approximated the empirical data, but gave lower estimates than were observed towards the end of the period. This version also gave a better fitting to the zooplankton abundance data and generally improved the fitting to all functional groups. CR *ICES, 1979, REP HOM WORK GROUP I *ICES, 1999, REP WORK GROUP ASS M *ICES, 2000, REP HERR ASS WORK GR *ICES, 2000, REP WORK GROUP ASS D *ICES, 2000, REP WORK GROUP ASS S *ICES, 2001, ICES FISH STAT CATCH *ICES, 2005, REP WORK GROUP ASS D ARAUJO JN, 2005, ECOPATH MODEL W ENGL AYDIN KY, 2004, AFR J MAR SCI, V26, P289 BARTON AD, 2003, PROG OCEANOGR, V58, P337 BEAUGRAND G, 2003, NATURE, V426, P661 BRADBURY IR, 2001, FISH OCEANOGR, V10, P342 CHRISTENSEN V, 2004, ECOL MODEL, V172, P109 CHRISTENSEN V, 2004, ECOPATH ECOSIM USERS, V12 CURY P, 2003, RESPONSIBLE FISHERIE, P103 CUSHING DH, 1995, POPULATION PRODUCTIO DIAZ HF, 2002, WMO B, V51, P377 EDWARDS M, 2001, ICES J MAR SCI, V58, P39 FOX CJ, 2000, J SEA RES, V44, P159 FULTON EA, 2004, AFR J MAR SCI, V26, P219 GENNER MJ, 2004, P ROY SOC LOND B BIO, V271, P655 HARVEY CJ, 2003, ICES J MAR SCI, V60, P939 HAWKINS SJ, 2003, SCI TOTAL ENVIRON, V310, P245 HENDERSON PA, 1994, NETH J SEA RES, V32, P321 KOSTER FW, 2003, SCI MAR S1, V67, P129 LOCKWOOD SJ, 1988, MACKEREL ITS BIOL AS MANN ME, 2002, SCIENCE, V297, P1481 PAWSON MG, 1995, 99 MIN AGR FISH FOOD PLAGANYI EE, 2004, AFR J MAR SCI, V26, P261 PLANQUE B, 1999, CAN J FISH AQUAT SCI, V56, P2069 REID PC, 2003, PROG OCEANOGR, V58, P117 RICHARDSON AJ, 2004, SCIENCE, V305, P1609 RIJNSDORP AD, 1992, NETH J SEA RES, V29, U402 SHANNON LJ, 2004, AFR J MAR SCI, V26, P179 SOUTHWARD AJ, 1988, J MAR BIOL ASSOC UK, V68, P423 SOUTHWARD AJ, 1995, J THERM BIOL, V20, P127 SOUTHWARD AJ, 2005, ADV MAR BIOL, V47, P1 STANFORD RJ, 2004, ECOSYSTEM SIMULATION, P12 ULRICH C, 2000, THESIS ECOL NATL SUP ULRICH C, 2002, FISH RES, V58, P379 WALTERS CJ, 2000, ECOSYSTEMS, V3, P70 WALTERS CJ, 2004, FISHERIES ECOLOGY MA WARE DM, 2005, SCIENCE, V308, P1280 NR 43 TC 0 J9 MAR ECOL-PROGR SER BP 175 EP 187 PY 2006 VL 309 GA 035RU UT ISI:000237020200014 ER PT J AU Parkes, M Panelli, R Weinstein, P TI Converging paradigms for environmental health theory and practice SO ENVIRONMENTAL HEALTH PERSPECTIVES LA English DT Editorial Material C1 Univ Otago, Dept Publ Hlth, Wellington Sch Med & Hlth Sci, Wellington, New Zealand. Univ Otago, Dept Geog, Dunedin, New Zealand. RP Parkes, M, Univ Hawaii, Div Ecol & Hlth, John A Burns Sch Med, 1960 East West Rd, Honolulu, HI 96822 USA. AB Converging themes from the fields of environmental health, ecology and health, and human ecology highlight opportunities for innovation and advancement in environmental health theory and practice. In this commentary we outline the role of research and applied programs that integrate biophysical and social sciences with environmental health practice in order to address deficiencies in each field when taken on its own. New opportunities for environmental health protection and promotion are outlined based on the three converging themes: integrated approaches to research and policy, methodological acknowledgment of the synergies between the social and biophysical environments, and incorporation of core ecosystem principles into research and practice. These converging themes are discussed in relation to their implications for new types of intervention to achieve health gains across different spatial and temporal scales at the interface between biophysical and social environments. 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Landcare Res, Lincoln, New Zealand. Landcare Res, Hamilton, New Zealand. RP Stephens, PR, Landcare Res, Private Bag 11052, Palmerston North, New Zealand. AB New Zealand is highly dependent on its soil resource for continued agricultural production. To avoid depleting this resource, there is a need to identify soils and associated land management practices where there is a risk of soil degradation. Environmental integrity and ecosystem services also need to be maintained. Accordingly, to ensure sustainable production, the on- and off site environmental impacts of land management need to be identified and managed. We developed a structural vulnerability index for New Zealand soils. This index ranks soils according to their inherent susceptibility to physical degradation when used for agricultural (pasture, forestry and cropping) purposes. We also developed a rule-based model to assess soil compaction vulnerability by characterising the combined effects of resistance and resilience. Other soil attributes have been appraised using seven chemical, physical and biological indicators of soil quality. These indicators have been applied in a nation-wide project involving data collection from over 500 sites for a range of land uses. These soil quality data can be interpreted via the World Wide Web - through the interactive decision-support tool SINDI. The land-use impact model is a framework to assess agricultural land management and environmental sustainability, and may be applied to land units at any scale. Using land resource data and information the model explicitly identifies hazards to land productivity and environmental integrity. It utilises qualitative expert and local knowledge and quantitative model-based evaluations to assess the potential environmental impacts of land-management practices. The model is linked to a geographic information system (GIS), allowing model outputs, such as the environmental impacts of site-specific best management practices, to be identified in a spatially explicit manner. The model has been tested in New Zealand in an area of pastoral land use. Advantages of this risk identification model include: utilising current knowledge of the causes and effects of land-management practices on soil degradation; linking land management practice to both on- and off-site environmental consequences; identifying important gaps in local knowledge; and providing spatially explicit information on the environmental impact of land-management practices. CR *FAO, 1976, FAO SOILS B, V32 *NZ MIN AGR FOR, 1998, SIT OUTL NZ AGR FOR *NZMFE, 1997, ENV PERF IND PROP AI BARRINGER JRF, 1998, P 10 ANN C SPAT INF, P25 DORAN JW, 1994, DEFINING SOIL QUALIT, P3 DORAN JW, 1996, METHODS ASSESSING SO, P25 EYLES GO, 1992, P 5 AUSTR SOIL CONSE, V2, P76 HAIR JF, 1995, MULTIVARIATE DATA AN HARRIS RF, 1994, DEFINING ASSESSING S, P23 HEWITT AE, 1997, AUST J SOIL RES, V35, P461 HEWITT AE, 2002, P SOIL QUAL SUST LAN, P127 LARSON WE, 1994, DEFINING SOIL QUALIT, P37 LILBURNE L, 2000, ENV SOFTWARE SYSTEMS LILBURNE L, 2002, P SOIL QUAL SUST LAN, P41 MOLLOY L, 1998, SOILS NZ LANDSCAPE L PARFITT RL, 2002, P SOIL QUAL SUST LAN, P82 SCHIPPER LA, 2000, SOIL SCI SOC AM J, V64, P300 SHEPHERD TG, 2001, AUST J SOIL RES, V39, P465 SIMS JT, 1997, J ENVIRON QUAL, V26, P20 SMITH CS, 1998, J ENVIRON MANAGE, V52, P15 SMITH CS, 2000, J ENVIRON MANAGE, V60, P267 SPARLING GP, RES REPORT 2000 2001 SPARLING GP, 2002, P SOIL QUAL SUST LAN, P13 TICKNER J, 1998, PRECAUTIONARY PRINCI NR 24 TC 0 J9 PEDOSPHERE BP 41 EP 48 PY 2003 PD FEB VL 13 IS 1 GA 734KV UT ISI:000186055800005 ER PT J AU Bodin, O Tengo, M Norman, A Lundberg, J Elmqvist, T TI The value of small size: Loss of forest patches and ecological thresholds in southern Madagascar SO ECOLOGICAL APPLICATIONS LA English DT Article C1 Stockholm Univ, Dept Syst Ecol, S-10691 Stockholm, Sweden. RP Bodin, O, Stockholm Univ, Dept Syst Ecol, S-10691 Stockholm, Sweden. AB Many services generated by forest ecosystems provide essential support for human well-being. However, the vulnerability of these services to environmental change such as forest fragmentation are still poorly understood. We present spatial modeling of the generation of ecosystem services in a human-dominated landscape where forest habitat patches, protected by local taboos, are located in a matrix of cultivated land in southern Madagascar. Two ecosystem services dependent on the forest habitats were addressed: (1) crop pollination services by wild and semidomesticated bees (Apoidea), essential for local crop production of, for example, beans, and (2) seed dispersal services based on the presence of ring-tailed lemurs (Lemur catta). We studied the vulnerability of these ecosystem services to a plausible scenario of successive destruction of the smallest habitat patches. Our results indicate that, in spite of the fragmented nature of the landscape, the fraction of the landscape presently covered by both crop pollination and seed dispersal services is surprisingly high. It seems that the taboo system, though indirectly and unintentionally, contributes to upholding the generation of these services by protecting the forest patches. Both services are, however, predicted to be very vulnerable to the successive removal of small patches. For crop pollination, the rate of decrease in cover was significant even when only the smallest habitat patches were removed. The capacity for seed dispersal across the landscape displayed several thresholds with habitat patch removal. Our results suggest that, in order to maintain capacity for seed dispersal across the landscape and crop pollination cover in southern Androy, the geographical location of the remaining forest patches is more crucial than their size. We argue that in heavily fragmented production landscapes, small forest patches should increasingly be viewed as essential for maintaining ecosystem services, such as agricultural production, and also should be considered in the ongoing process of tripling the area of protected habitats in Madagascar. 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Overseas Dev Inst, London SE1 7JD, England. RP Devereux, S, Univ Sussex, Inst Dev Studies, Brighton BN1 9RE, E Sussex, England. AB According to several studies, poverty in rural Ethiopia has fallen significantly since the early 1990s, thanks to improved governance and economic liberalisation policies. This paper presents several arguments that challenge this view. The first questions the methodological foundations of the data from which these positive trends are derived we argue that the original sampling frame was too small and unrepresentative to provide a basis for extrapolating national poverty levels or trends. The second argument questions the conceptual underpinnings of these studies: poverty estimates based on levels of current consumption jail to allow for non-income dimensions of wellbeing, nor for confounding factors such as seasonality, annual rainfall and food aid receipts. The third strand considers alternative sources of data on changes in wellbeing in Ethiopia: recent qualitative studies report that the poor perceive themselves as poorer and more vulnerable than poverty headcount figures suggest. Finally, we report findings from our own survey in chronically poor and historically famine-prone Wollo. First, a significant proportion of households in the study area are destitute destitution being defined as inability to meet basic needs, lack of key productive assets, and dependence on transfers. Secondly, the numbers of destitute people, and of people vulnerable to becoming destitute, have increased over the past ten years. Thirdly the crisis of livelihoods underlying this trend is affecting entire communities - the dominant pattern is an aggregate downward shift, rather than. stratification - and the decline of wealthier households is exacerbating the vulnerability of the poorest. These findings cast serious doubts on generalisations about poverty trends in Ethiopia. At the very least, national-level data need to be disaggregated improving national trends may conceal pockets of entrenched poverty and a deepening livelihoods crisis in parts of rural Ethiopia. CR *FDRE, 2002, ETH SUST DEV POV RED *IMF, 1999, ETH REC EC DEV *IMF, 2002, ETH STAT APP *MEDAC, 1999, POV SIT ETH *NIC, 2002, NEXT WAV HIV AIDS NI *STEER COMM EV JOI, 2004, EV RESP 200203 EM ET *WORLD BANK, 1981, ACC AFR AGR DEV *WORLD BANK, 1999, ETH POV POL NEW MILL *WORLD BANK, 2002, ET RUR DEV WORKSH 13 BELSHAW D, 2002, RENEWING DEV SUBSAHA BEVAN P, 1997, OXFORD DEV STUDIES, V25, P315 BIGSTEN A, 2003, WORLD DEV, V31, P87 BLOCK S, 2001, FOOD POLICY, V26, P333 CHBAL P, 1999, AFRICA WORKS DISORDE DEMERY L, 1995, 70 ESP WORLD BANK DERCON S, 1998, WORKING PAPER SERIES, V987 DERCON S, 2000, J DEV STUD, V36, P25 DERCON S, 2000, UNPUB POVERTY REDUCT DERCON S, 2002, IMPACT EC REFORMS RU DESTA HK, 2000, N WOLLO HIGHLAND BEL DEVEREUX S, 1988, FOOD POLICY, V13, P270 DEVEREUX S, 2003, 216 I DEV STUD DEVEREUX S, 2003, 55 IDS DEVEREUX S, 2003, STAYING POOR CHRONIC DEWAAL A, 1997, FAMINE CRIMES POLITI DOLLAR D, 2000, 2587 WORLD BANK DONOVAN G, 1997, ETHIOPIA AGR GROWTH ERCON S, 2000, GROWTH POVERTY ETHIO FILMER D, 1998, ESTIMATING WEALTH EF GETAHUN Z, 2001, ETHIOPIAN J HLTH DEV, V15, P55 HOLT J, 1999, SUSTAINBLE LIVELIHOO JAYNE TS, 2002, WORLD DEV, V30, P1967 JODHA NS, 1988, ECON POLIT WEEKLY, V45, P2421 KAISER R, 2003, CDC ETHIOPIA DROUGHT KEBEDE E, 2002, FOOD AID IMPACT MONI KHERALLAH M, 2002, REFORMING AGR MARKET KYDD J, 2001, DEV POLICY REV, V19, P467 MATHYS E, 2000, MONITORING IMPACT FO MCGEE R, 2004, DEV CHANGE, V35, P499 NARAAN D, 2000, VOICES POOR CRYING O RAHMATO D, 1991, FAMINE SURVIVAL STRA RAHMATO D, 1999, CONSULTATIONS POOR N RAVALLION M, 1997, WORLD BANK ECON REV, V11, P357 ROBINSON C, 2003, NOTHING FALL BACK WH SALAMA P, 2001, JAMA-J AM MED ASSOC, V286, P563 SEAMAN J, 2000, HOUSEHOLD EC APPROAC SEN AK, 1981, POVERTY FAMINES ESSA, V1, P1 SHARP K, 2003, 217 IDS SHARP K, 2004, J HUMAN DEV, V5, P227 TRIBE M, 2002, RENEWING DEV SUBSAHA WEBB P, 1994, FAINE FOOD SECURITY WIGGINS S, 2000, WORLD DEV, V28, P631 YIRSAW F, 2002, POVERTY DIAGNOSIS 3 NR 53 TC 0 J9 J DEVELOP STUD BP 592 EP 610 PY 2006 PD MAY VL 42 IS 4 GA 050LY UT ISI:000238090300003 ER PT J AU Meehl, GA TI Vulnerability of freshwater resources to climate change in the tropical Pacific region SO WATER AIR AND SOIL POLLUTION LA English DT Article RP Meehl, GA, NATL CTR ATMOSPHER RES,POB 3000,BOULDER,CO 80307. AB El Nino events and associated droughts adversely affect freshwater resources on islands in the tropical Pacific region. Particularly vulnerable are low-lying atolls because rainwater collection is the main freshwater source on such islands. During El Nino-ralated droughts, water can be drawn only from the limited freshwater lenses beneath the islands. If drought conditions such as these intensify, the depletion of freshwater resources could affect the habitability of atolls. Avenge climate change in the Pacific region from increased anthropogenic carbon dioxide in a global coupled climate model resembles present-day El Nino conditions as well as the decadal time scale sea surface temperature and precipitation anomalies observed during the 1980s and early 1990s. These anomalies are a consequence of greater warming of sea surface temperatures in the eastern equatorial Pacific than over the western Pacific warm pool with increased carbon dioxide in the climate model. Attendant increases in precipitation in the central equatorial Pacific are also accompanied by precipitation decreases in the northern and southern tropical Pacific (roughly 5 degrees N to 15 degrees N and 5 degrees S to 15 degrees S), as well as in the Australasian and eastern Indian Ocean regions. Associated effects in the midlatitude North Pacific also resemble El Nino conditions and the decadal time-scale signals from the 1980s. Future possible increases of drought conditions in certain tropical Pacific regions, as indicated by the climate model results, could limit the sustainability of atoll populations in those regions, causing migration and increased urbanization, with all the attendant problems, on larger high islands with more stable water supplies. CR BOER GJ, 1993, CLIM DYNAM, V8, P225 BOTTOMLY M, 1990, GLOBAL OCEAN SURFACE CHEN TC, 1992, J METEOROL SOC JPN, V70, P1137 GRAHAM NE, 1994, CLIM DYNAM, V10, P135 GRAHAM NE, 1995, SCIENCE, V267, P666 HOUGHTON JT, 1992, CLIMATE CHANGE 1992 KILADIS GN, 1988, MON WEA REV, V116, P120 KNUTSON TR, 1995, J CLIMATE, V8, P2181 KUMAR A, 1994, SCIENCE, V266, P632 MEEHL GA, IN PRESS NATURE MEEHL GA, 1987, MON WEATHER REV, V115, P27 MEEHL GA, 1993, J CLIMATE, V6, P42 MEEHL GA, 1995, B AM METEOROL SOC, V76, P951 MEEHL GA, 1995, CLIM DYNAM, V11, P399 NITTA T, 1989, J METEOROL SOC JPN, V67, P375 NITTA T, 1994, J METEOROL SOC JPN, V72, P823 OBERHUBER JM, 1988, ATLAS BASED COADS DA RAMANATHAN V, 1991, NATURE, V351, P27 RAPPA P, 1995, CLIMATE CHANGE IMPLI ROPELEWSKI CF, 1987, MON WEATHER REV, V115, P1606 SALINGER MJ, 1995, INT J CLIMATOL, V15, P285 SENIOR CA, 1993, J CLIMATE, V6, P393 SHANKMAN P, 1993, CONT PACIFIC SOC STANLEY D, 1985, MICRONESIA HDB TRENBERTH KE, 1990, B AM METEOROL SOC, V71, P988 TRENBERTH KE, 1994, CLIM DYNAM, V9, P303 VANLOON H, 1981, MON WEA REV, V109, P1150 WANG B, 1995, J CLIMATE, V8, P267 WASHINGTON WM, 1993, CLIM DYNAM, V8, P211 ZHANG GJ, 1995, J CLIMATE, V8, P589 NR 30 TC 5 J9 WATER AIR SOIL POLLUT BP 203 EP 213 PY 1996 PD SEP VL 92 IS 1-2 GA VM538 UT ISI:A1996VM53800021 ER PT J AU Knox, JC TI Floodplain sedimentation in the Upper Mississippi Valley: Natural versus human accelerated SO GEOMORPHOLOGY LA English DT Article C1 Univ Wisconsin, Dept Geog, Madison, WI 53706 USA. RP Knox, JC, Univ Wisconsin, Dept Geog, Madison, WI 53706 USA. AB Understanding the time scales and pathways for response and recovery of rivers and floodplains to episodic changes in erosion and sedimentation has been a long standing issue in fluvial geomorphology. Floodplains are an important component of watershed systems because they affect downstream storage and delivery of overbank flood waters, and they also serve as sources and temporary sinks for sediments and toxic substances delivered by river systems. Here, C-14 and Cs-137 isotopic dating methods are used along with ages of culturally related phenomena associated with mining and agriculture to determine rates of sedimentation and morphologic change for a reach of the upper Mississippi River and adjacent tributaries in southwestern Wisconsin and northwestern Illinois. The most important environmental change that influenced fluvial activity in this region during last 10,000 years involved the conversion of a late Holocene mosaic of prairie and forest to a landscape dominated by cropland and pastureland associated with Euro-American settlement. Results presented herein for the Upper Mississippi Valley (UMV) show that the shift from pre-agriculture, natural land cover to landscape dominance by agricultural land use of the last 175-200 years typically increased rates and magnitudes of floodplain sedimentation by at least an order of magnitude. Accelerated overbank flooding led to increased bank heights on tributary streams and, in turn, contributed to more frequent deep flows of high energy. These high energy flows subsequently promoted bank erosion and lateral channel migration, and the formation of a historical meander belt whose alluvial surface constitutes a new historical floodplain inset against the earlier historical floodplain. The new historical floodplain serves as a "flume-like" channel that provides efficient downstream transport of water and sediment associated with moderate and large magnitude floods. Floodplains on lower tributaries, however, continue to experience rates of overbank sedimentation that are of anomalously high magnitude given improved land cover and land conservation since about 1950. This lower valley anomaly is explained by minimal development of historical (agriculture period) meander belts because of relatively low stream power in these channel and floodplain reaches of relatively low gradient. In general, long-term pre-agriculture rates of vertical accretion between about 10,000 and 200 years ago averaged about 0.2 mm yr(-1) in tributary watersheds smaller than about 700 km(2) and about 0.9 mm yr(-1) on the floodplain of the upper Mississippi River where the contributing watershed area increases to about 170,000 km2. On the other hand, rates of historical vertical accretion during the period of agricultural dominance of the last 200 years average between 2 and 20 mm yr(-1), with short episodes of even higher rates during times of particularly poor land conservation practices. Significant hydrologic effects of mining and agricultural started by the 1820s and became widespread in the study region by the mid-19th century. The hydrologic and geomorphic influences of mining were relatively minor compared to those related to agriculture. High resolution dating of floodplain vertical accretion deposits shows that large floods have frequently provided major increments of sedimentation on floodplains of tributaries and the main valley upper Mississippi River. The relative importance of large floods as contributors to floodplain vertical accretion is noteworthy bcause global atmospheric circulation models indicate that the main channel upper Mississippi River should experience increased frequencies of extreme hydrologic events, including large floods, with anticipated continued global warming. Instrumental and stratigraphic records show that, coincident with global warming, a shift to more frequent large floods occurred since 1950 on the upper Mississippi River, and these floods generally contributed high magnitudes of floodplain sedimentation. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 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Monash Univ, Sch Geog & Environm Sci, Clayton, Vic 3800, Australia. Univ Colorado, CIRES, Boulder, CO 80309 USA. RP Brunner, RD, Univ Colorado, Ctr Publ Policy Res, Boulder, CO 80309 USA. AB The purpose of the research reported here is to help the community in Barrow, Alaska, clarify its vulnerability to extreme weather events, and devise better-informed policies for reducing that vulnerability and adapting to climate variability and change. We examine the worst disaster on record there-a storm that struck on 3 October 1963-from different disciplinary perspectives and in the context of other severe storms. The major policy responses to date have been a beach nourishment program, a feasibility study of additional means of erosion control, and an emergency management plan. Additional possible responses have been identified in the community's cumulative experience of these storms, but have not yet been fully explored or implemented. Meanwhile, given inherent uncertainties, it is clear that sound policies will allow for corrective action if and when expectations based on the best available knowledge and information turn out to be mistaken. It is also clear that the people of Barrow are in the best position to understand the evolving situation and to decide what to do about it. CR 1963, TUNDRA TIMES 0304, P5 1963, TUNDRA TIMES 1007, P1 1963, TUNDRA TIMES 1007, P7 1963, TUNDRA TIMES 1021, P1 1963, TUNDRA TIMES 1021, P5 1963, TUNDRA TIMES 1104, P7 1963, TUNDRA TIMES 1202, P7 1963, TUNDRA TIMS 1021, P3 1965, TUNDRA TIMES 0315, P7 1986, OPEN LEAD NOV, P38 1989, BARROW SUN 0303, P1 1989, BARROW SUN 0307, P7 *BTS LCMF LDT, 1989, MIT ALT COAST ER WAI *EM RESP I INT INC, 2000, COMPR EM MAN PLAN CE *USACE, 2001, BARR AK SECT 905B WR AHMAOGOK GN, 2000, STORM SUMMARY REPORT AHMAOGOK GN, 2001, COMMUNICATION 0424 BRUNNER RD, 2000, PREDICTION SCI DECIS, P199 BRUNNER RD, 2001, POLICY SCI, V34, P1 CULLATHER RI, 2003, INT J CLIMATOL, V23, P1161 HESS B, 1993, TAKING CONTROL STORY HUME JD, 1967, ARCTIC, V20, P86 KEEGAN TJ, 1958, J METEOROL, V15, P513 KOWALIK Z, 1984, J GEOPHYS RES, V89, P10570 LASSWELL HD, 1971, PREVIEW POLICY SCI LEDREW EF, 1983, J CLIMATOL, V3, P335 LEDREW EF, 1985, J CLIMATOL, V5, P253 LYNCH AH, 2002, MONTHLY WEATHER REV, V131, P719 LYNCH AH, 2004, B AM METEOROL SOC, V85, P209 MASKS K, 1982, TUNDRA TIMES 0901, P7 MASLANIK JA, 1996, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V23, P1677 MASLANIK JA, 1999, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V26, P1905 MILETI DS, 1999, DISASTERS DESIGN REA NEAKOK C, 2000, 2000 STORM DAM SEA W OKAKOK G, 1963, TUNDRA TIMES 1021, P3 ORESKES N, 1994, SCIENCE, V263, P641 PIELKE RA, 1997, SOC NATUR RESOUR, V10, P485 ROCK H, 1963, TUNDRA TIMES 1021, P4 ROGERS JC, 1978, MON WEATHER REV, V106, P890 SCHAEFFER PJ, 1966, ARCH METEOROL GEOP A, V15, P372 SERREZE MC, 1993, METEOROL ATMOS PHYS, V51, P147 SERREZE MC, 2001, J CLIMATE, V14, P1550 TIERNEY KJ, 2001, FACING UNEXPECTED DI UNGAR S, 1995, SOC NATUR RESOUR, V8, P443 WALKER HJ, 1991, S ER ARCH SIT N SLOP, P8 WALSH JE, 1996, J CLIMATE, V9, P480 NR 46 TC 0 J9 ARCTIC BP 336 EP 346 PY 2004 PD DEC VL 57 IS 4 GA 880NA UT ISI:000225795300003 ER PT J AU McNelis, DN Schweitzer, GE TI Environmental security: An evolving concept SO ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY LA English DT Article C1 Univ N Carolina, Carolina Environm Program, Res Programs, Chapel Hill, NC 27514 USA. RP McNelis, DN, Univ N Carolina, Carolina Environm Program, Res Programs, Chapel Hill, NC 27514 USA. CR *ISL REP IR, 1999, CASP ENV PROGR NAT R *NATO COMM CHALL M, 1999, 232 NATO COMM CHALL *US EPA, 1999, USEPA160F99001 *W WILS CTR, 2000, ENV CHANG SEC PROJ R ESTY DC, 1999, ENV CHANGE SECURITY HAUGE W, 1998, J PEACE RES, V35, P381 HOMERDIXON T, 1998, ECOVIOLENCE LINKS EN HOMERDIXON TF, 1994, INT SECURITY, V19, P5 LOGAN J, 1999, CLIMATE ACTION US CH LONERGAN S, 11 IHDP, P32 RUBIN V, 1999, GEOPOLITICS ENERGY D VINOGRADOV SV, 1999, NATO SCI SERIES, V2 NR 12 TC 0 J9 ENVIRON SCI TECHNOL BP 108A EP 113A PY 2001 PD MAR 1 VL 35 IS 5 GA 407XQ UT ISI:000167296400020 ER PT J AU Luo, QY Lin, E TI Agricultural vulnerability and adaptation in developing countries: The Asia-Pacific region SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 Chinese Acad Agr Sci, Inst Agrometeorol, Beijing 100081, Peoples R China. RP Luo, QY, Univ Adelaide, Dept Geog & Environm Studies, Mawson Grad Ctr Environm Studies, Adelaide, SA 5005, Australia. AB During the last decades, a large number of climate change impact studies on agriculture have been conducted qualitatively and quantitatively in many regions of the Asia-Pacific. Changes in average climate conditions and climate variability will have a significant consequence on crop yields in many parts of the Asia-Pacific. Crop yield and productivity changes will vary considerably across the region. Vulnerability to climate change depends not only on physical and biological response but also on socioeconomic characteristics. Adaptation strategies that consider changes in crop varieties or in the timing of agricultural activities imply low costs and, if readily undertaken, can compensate for some of the yield loss simulated with the climate change scenarios. The studies reviewed here suggest that the regions of Tropical Asia appear to be among the more vulnerable; some areas of Temperate Asia also appear to be vulnerable. CR *AS DEV BANK, 1994, REG STUD GLOB ENV IS *INT PAN CLIM CHAN, 1996, CLIM CHANG 1995 IMP AGGARWAL PK, 1993, J AGR METEOROL, V48, P811 AMADORE LA, 1996, WATER AIR SOIL POLL, V92, P1 AMIEN I, 1996, WATER AIR SOIL POLL, V92, P29 ANGLO EG, 1996, REG WORKSH CLIM CHAN BAYASGALAN S, 1996, ADAPTING CLIMATE CHA, P164 BAZZAZ FA, 1996, GLOBAL CHANGE TERRES, P43 BRAMMER H, 1994, 3 BUP BUAN RD, 1996, WATER AIR SOIL POLL, V92, P41 DIAZ S, 1995, J BIOGEOGR, V22, P289 ESCANO CR, 1994, IMPLICATIONS CLIMATE HULME M, 1992, CLIMATE CHANGE DUE G IGLESIAS A, 1996, WATER AIR SOIL POLL, V92, P13 JIN Z, 1994, IMPLICATIONS CLIMATE, P1 KARIM Z, 1996, WATER AIR SOIL POLL, V92, P53 KAVALERCHIK S, 1995, OVERALL APPROACHES P, P49 LAL M, 1997, ATR196 IND I TECHN C LIN ED, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE VULNE, V92, P63 LIN JC, 1994, ADV ELECTROMAG FIELD, V1, P1 LU LS, 1991, PRODUCTIVE STRUCTURE LU LS, 1991, STUDIES MEDIUM LONG MATTHEWS RB, 1995, MODELING IMPACTS CLI PARRY ML, 1992, POTENTIAL SOCIOECONO PILIFOSOVA O, 1996, VULNERABILITY ADAPTA, P161 QURESHI A, 1994, IMPLICATIONS CLIMATE RAO DG, 1994, IMPLICATIONS CLIMATE RAO DG, 1995, ASA SPEC PUBL, V59, P325 TONGYAI C, 1994, IMPLICATIONS CLIMATE WANG JH, 1996, WATER AIR SOIL POLL, V92, P75 WIJERATNE MA, 1996, WATER AIR SOIL POLL, V92, P87 ZHANG H, 1993, CLIMATE CHANGE ITS I, P131 NR 32 TC 2 J9 CLIMATIC CHANGE BP 729 EP 743 PY 1999 PD DEC VL 43 IS 4 GA 248KD UT ISI:000083272900005 ER PT J AU Nicholls, RJ Hoozemans, FMJ TI The Mediterranean: Vulnerability to coastal implications of climate change SO OCEAN & COASTAL MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article C1 DELFT HYDRAUL,NL-8300 AD EMMELOORD,NETHERLANDS. RP Nicholls, RJ, MIDDLESEX UNIV,SCH GEOG & ENVIRONM MANAGEMENT,ENFIELD EN3 4SF,MIDDX,ENGLAND. AB The Mediterranean is experiencing a number of immediate coastal problems which are triggering efforts to improve short-term coastal management. This paper shows that coastal management also needs to address long-term problems and, in particular, the likelihood of climate change. Regional scale studies suggest that the Mediterranean is particularly vulnerable to increased flooding by storm surges as sea levels rise-a 1-m rise in sea level would cause at least a sir-fold increase in the number of people experiencing such flooding in a typical year, without considering population growth. Protection is quite feasible, however, this would place a greater burden on those Mediterranean countries in the south than those in the north. All coastal wetlands appear threatened. Case studies of coastal cities (Venice and Alexandria), deltas (Nile, Po, Rhone and Ebro), and islands (Cyprus) support the need to consider climate change in coastal planning. However, the critical issues vary from site to site and from setting to setting. In deltaic areas and low-lying coastal plains climate change, particularly sea-level rise, is already considered as an important issue, but elsewhere this is not the case. Therefore, there is a need for coastal management plans to explicitly address long-term issues, including climate change, and integrate this planning with short-term issues. This is entirely consistent with existing guidelines.(1) Given the large uncertainty concerning the future, planning for climate change will involve identifying and implementing low-cost proactive measures, such as appropriate land use planning or improved design standards incorporated within renewal cycles, as well as identifying sectors or activities which may be compromised by likely climate change. In the latter case, any necessary investment can be seen as a prudent 'insurance policy'. Copyright (C) 1996 Elsevier Science Ltd. CR *DELFT HYDR, 1992, ASS ACC SEA LEV RIS *IPCC CZMS, 1991, ASS VULN COAST AR SE *IPCC CZMS, 1992, GLOB CLIM CHANG RIS *LOU COAST WETL CO, 1993, LOUIS COAST REST PLA *NAT RES COUNC, 1987, RESP CHANG SEA LEV E *NAT RES COUNC, 1995, SCI POL COAST IMPR D *UN POP DIV, 1993, WORLD URB PROSP 1992 *UNEP, 1995, UNEP REGIONAL SEAS R, V161 *WORLD COAST C, 1993, PREP M COAST CHALL 2 BAARSE G, 1995, CZM CTR PUBLICATION, V3 BALKAS T, 1993, COASTAL ZONE MANAGEM, P85 BANDARIN F, 1995, MEDCOAST 95, P537 BARIC A, 1992, CLIMATIC CHANGE MEDI, P129 BILJSMA L, 1996, IMPACTS ADAPTATIONS, P289 BOESCH DF, 1994, J COASTAL RES BONDESAN M, 1995, J COASTAL RES, V11, P1354 BROADUS J, 1986, EFFECTS CHANGES STRA, V4, P1625 CAPOBIANCO M, 1995, MEDCOAST 95, P737 CARTER TR, 1994, TECHNICAL GUIDELINES CORRE JJ, 1992, IMPACTS SEA LEVEL RI, P153 DALFES HN, 1991, CITIES GLOBAL CHANGE, P92 DAY JW, 1994, CHANGES FLUXES ESTUA, P151 DAY JW, 1995, MEDC 95 OCT 24 27 19, P781 DEVINE NP, 1992, THESIS RUTGERS STATE DOUGLAS BC, 1995, REV GEOPHYSICS S, P1425 ELRAEY M, 1990, CHANGING CLIMATE COA, V2, P225 ELRAEY M, 1995, J COASTAL RES, P190 ELSAYED MK, 1991, P 1 INT M CIT WAT, P183 EMERGY KO, 1988, MAR GEOL, V8, P41 FLEMMING NC, 1992, CLIMATIC CHANGE MEDI, P247 FRANCIA C, 1993, COASTAL ZONE MANAGEM, P109 FRENCH JR, 1995, EARTH SURF PROCESSES, V20, P1 GORDON HB, 1992, CLIM DYNAM, V8, P83 HAZMA A, 1989, ENVIRON URBAN, V11, P22 HOLLIGAN PM, 1993, 25 IGBP HOLZER TL, 1985, GEOJOURNAL, V11, P245 HOOZEMANS FMJ, 1993, GLOBAL VULNERABILITY IACOVAU NG, 1995, MEDCOAST 95, P491 JEFTIC L, 1992, CLIMATE CHANGE MEDIT JELGERSMA S, 1992, CLIMATE CHANGE MED, P282 KOSTER MJ, 1995, J COASTAL RES, V11, P1221 LEE GH, 1995, J COASTAL RES, V11, P1157 LOIZIDOU XI, 1995, MEDCOAST 95, P1019 MACKENZIE D, 1995, NEW SCI, V147, P8 MCLEAN R, 1993, VULNERABILITY ASSESS MILLIMAN JD, 1989, AMBIO, V18, P340 MILLIMAN JD, 1992, CLIMATE CHANGE MEDIT, P45 MITCHELL JK, 1992, CONFRONTING CLIMATE, P141 NICHOLLS RJ, 1995, GEOH ENG GEOL CONV S NICHOLLS RJ, 1995, GEOJOURNAL, V37, P369 NICHOLLS RJ, 1995, J COASTAL RES, P303 NICHOLLS RJ, 1995, M COAST CHALL 21 CEN, P181 NICHOLLS RJ, 1995, P 2 INT C MED COST E, V95, P1199 OZHAN E, 1995, P 2 INT C MED COAST PEERBOLTE EB, 1991, IMPACT SEA LEVEL RIS PIRAZZOLI PA, 1987, PROGR OCEANOGRAPHY, V18, P323 PIRAZZOLI PA, 1991, J COASTAL RES, V7, P231 SANCHEZARCILLA A, 1996, OCEAN COASTAL MANAGE, V30 SESTINI G, 1992, CLIMATIC CHANGE MEDI, P535 SESTINI G, 1992, IMPACTS SEA LEVEL RI, P170 STANLEY DJ, 1990, MAR GEOL, V94, P147 STANLEY DJ, 1993, SCIENCE, V260, P628 STEVENSON JC, 1986, ESTUARINE VARIABILIT, P241 STRZEPEK KM, 1995, CLIMATE CHANGES INT, P189 TURNER RK, ENVIRON MANAGE, V20, P159 TURNER RK, 1990, CITIES RISK TURNER RK, 1995, ENVIRON PLANN A, V27, P1777 VOLONTE CR, 1995, J COASTAL RES, P262 WARNE AG, 1993, J COASTAL RES, V9, P26 WARRICK RA, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, P359 WIGLEY TML, 1992, CLIMATIC CHANGE MEDI, P15 WIGLEY TML, 1992, NATURE, V357, P293 ZANDA L, 1991, P 1 INT M CIT WAT, P51 NR 73 TC 5 J9 OCEAN COAST MANAGE BP 105 EP 132 PY 1996 VL 31 IS 2-3 GA WE419 UT ISI:A1996WE41900003 ER PT J AU Peters, E van Lanen, HAJ Torfs, PJJF Bier, G TI Drought in groundwater - drought distribution and performance indicators SO JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY LA English DT Article C1 Wageningen Univ, Subdept Water Resources, NL-6709 PA Wageningen, Netherlands. RP van Lanen, HAJ, Wageningen Univ, Subdept Water Resources, Nieuwe Kanaal 11, NL-6709 PA Wageningen, Netherlands. AB In order to investigate how droughts are changed by the groundwater system and to analyse the performance of groundwater during drought, 10 time series of 1000 years of recharge and groundwater discharge were generated. The 10 X 1000 years of synthetic daily data were generated using Nearest Neighbour resampling based on 37 years of observed daily meteorological data. The root zone was simulated by a non-linear water balance model and the groundwater system by a linear reservoir model. The size and thus the response time of the reservoir was characterised by a reservoir coefficient. Subsequently, the deficit and duration of the droughts were derived from the time series of recharge and groundwater discharge using the threshold level approach. An analysis of the distribution of these droughts shows that for droughts with small return periods, the deficit in the groundwater discharge is smaller than in the recharge. For droughts with large return periods, the deficit in the groundwater discharge is larger than in the recharge. The performance of groundwater systems with respect to droughts was evaluated using three classical performance indicators (reliability, resilience and vulnerability), a combination of these three indicators (Loucks' sustainability index) and three newly defined overall performance indicators. The newly defined indicators combine the severity and frequency of the droughts, instead of analysing these separately in reliability and vulnerability. The performance is estimated for the groundwater recharge and for the discharge of groundwater systems with three different values of the reservoir coefficient. Of all the performance indicators used, one of the newly introduced overall performance indicators with a strong emphasis on droughts with a high return period appeared to characterise the groundwater droughts best. This indicator shows a more or less constant performance for low and medium high reservoir coefficients and an increasing performance for higher reservoir coefficients. (c) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. CR *VER VOOR LAND, 1992, CULT VAD VER VOOR LA ALILA Y, 2002, HYDROL PROCESS, V16, P1065 BRANDSMA T, 1998, HYDROL EARTH SYST SC, V2, P195 CALOW R, 1999, P INT C INT DROUGHT, P255 CORREIA FN, 1986, SYST AN APPL WAT REL CUNNANE C, 1979, WATER RESOUR RES, V15, P489 DEMUTH S, 2000, DROUGHT DROUGHT MITI, P209 DEZEEUW JW, 1958, LANDBOUWKUNDIG TIJDS, V70, P405 DOUGLAS EM, 2002, J HYDROL ENG, V7, P220 ENGELAND K, 2000, PRACTICAL EXTREME VA ESTRELA T, 1996, WATER RESOURCES PROB FERNANDEZ B, 1999, J HYDROL ENG, V4, P308 HASHIMOTO T, 1982, WATER RESOUR RES, V18, P14 HIPEL KW, 1994, DEV WATER SCI, V45 HISDAL H, 2002, IAHS PUBLICATION, V274, P281 KJELDSEN TR, 2001, IAHS PUBL, V268, P107 LALL U, 1996, WATER RESOUR RES, V32, P679 LOUCKS DP, 1997, HYDROLOG SCI J, V42, P513 MAIER HR, 2001, WATER RESOUR RES, V37, P779 MCMAHON TA, 1993, HDB HYDROLOGY, CH27 MOY WS, 1986, WATER RESOUR RES, V22, P489 PANDEY RP, 2001, HYDROL PROCESS, V15, P1019 PETERS E, 2001, ASSESSMENT REGIONAL, P35 PETERS E, 2003, HYDROL PROCESS, V17, P3023 RAJAGOPALAN B, 1999, WATER RESOUR RES, V35, P3089 REISS RD, 1997, STAT ANAL EXTREME VA RITZEMA HP, 1994, ILRI PUBLICATION, V16 ROBINS NS, 1997, WC9757 BGS SCHEIDLEDER A, 1999, GROUNDWATER QUALITY STAHL K, 2001, THESIS U FREIBURG BR STEDINGER JR, 1993, HDB HYDROLOGY, CH18 TALLAKSEN LM, 2000, DROUGHT DROUGHT MITI, P103 UIJLENHOET R, 2001, STAT ANAL DAILY DISC VANDELEUR DAK, 1962, J GEOPHYS RES, V67, P4347 VANLANEN HAJ, 1996, P INT C CAL REL GROU, P307 VANLANEN HAJ, 2000, DROUGHT DROUGHT MITI, P49 VAZ AC, 1986, SYST AN APPL WAT REL WHITE L, 1999, TECHNICAL DOCUMENTS, V26 WOJCIK R, 2001, RAINFALL GENERATOR R WOJCIK R, 2003, J HYDROL, V273, P69 WOO MK, 1994, HYDROLOG SCI J, V39, P19 YEVJEVICH V, 1967, 23 COL STAT U NR 42 TC 3 J9 J HYDROL BP 302 EP 317 PY 2005 PD MAY 9 VL 306 IS 1-4 GA 930KA UT ISI:000229413500018 ER PT J AU MOY, WS COHON, JL REVELLE, CS TI A PROGRAMMING-MODEL FOR ANALYSIS OF THE RELIABILITY, RESILIENCE, AND VULNERABILITY OF A WATER-SUPPLY RESERVOIR SO WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH LA English DT Article C1 JOHNS HOPKINS UNIV,DEPT GEOG & ENVIRONM ENGN,BALTIMORE,MD 21218. RP MOY, WS, USA,CORPS ENGINEERS,INST WATER RESOURCES,FT BELVOIR,VA 22060. CR ASKEW AJ, 1974, WATER RESOUR RES, V10, P1099 ASKEW AJ, 1974, WATER RESOUR RES, V10, P51 COHON JL, 1978, MATH SCI ENG, V140 COLORNI A, 1976, WATER RESOUR RES, V12, P85 CORLEY TE, 1979, RELIABILITY WATER RE, P167 FIERING MB, 1967, STREAM FLOW SYNTHESI FIERING MB, 1982, WATER RESOUR RES, V18, P33 HAIMES YY, 1975, DEV WATER SCI, V3 HASHIMOTO T, 1982, WATER RESOUR RES, V18, P14 HOLLING CS, 1973, ANNUAL REV ECOLOGY S, V4, P1 HOUCK MH, 1979, RELIABILITY WATER RE, P127 HOUCK MH, 1979, WATER RESOUR RES, V15, P1011 HOUCK MH, 1981, WATER RESOUR RES, V17, P827 JOERES EF, 1981, WATER RESOUR RES, V17, P18 LECLERC G, 1973, WATER RESOUR RES, V9, P1155 LOUCKS DP, 1975, WATER RESOUR RES, V11, P777 MAJOR DC, 1979, APPLIED WATER RESOUR MOY W, 1983, THESIS J HOPKINS U B REVELLE C, 1969, WATER RESOUR RES, V5, P767 REVELLE C, 1970, WATER RESOUR RES, V6, P1033 REVELLE CS, 1975, WATER RESOUR RES, V11, P197 ROEFS TG, 1968, RESERVOIR MANAGEMENT SIMONOVIC SP, 1980, WATER RESOUR RES, V16, P844 YEH WW, 1982, STATE ART REV THEORI YEH WWG, 1985, WATER RESOUR RES, V21, P1797 NR 25 TC 19 J9 WATER RESOUR RES BP 489 EP 498 PY 1986 PD APR VL 22 IS 4 GA A8654 UT ISI:A1986A865400007 ER PT J AU Berque, A TI A basis for environmental ethics SO DIOGENES LA English DT Article C1 CNRS, Ecole Hautes Etud Sci Sociales, Paris, France. RP Berque, A, CNRS, Ecole Hautes Etud Sci Sociales, Paris, France. AB The overuse of water resources in the upper reaches of the Tarim (Xinjiang, China) jeopardizes the ecosystem of the huyang (Populus diversifolia) in the middle reaches of the river, which has led the authorities to displace the population of Caohu (Luntai-xian) in the name of environmental security. This paper discusses the ethical basis of such operations by comparing different approaches, and concludes that establishing a genuine environmental ethics implies an ontological revolution: one that will replace the 'being towards death' (Sein zum Tode) of the modern ontological topos of 'individual body: individual person', with the 'being towards life' (sei e no sonzai) of what Watsuji defined as 'the structural moment of human existence', in which being cannot be dissociated from context and history. This ontological revolution, which links human subjecthood with the environment itself, is by the same token the condition of sustainability, which is the most basic human security of all. CR CONSTANZA R, 1997, NATURE, V387, P253 HAOFA S, 2003, LUNTAI JIN, P164 HEIDEGGER M, 1993, SEIN ZEIT, P258 LARRERE R, 1997, BON USAGE NATURE POU LATOUR B, 2002, COSMOPOLITIQUES NATU MARX K, 1867, CAPITAL, P1 TETSURO W, 1979, FUDO NINGENGAKUTEKI, P19 WACKERNAGEL M, 1996, ECOLOGICAL FOOTPRING XU YQ, 2003, GANHANQA DILI, V26, P203 NR 9 TC 0 J9 DIOGENES BP 3 EP + PY 2005 VL 52 IS 3 GA 957NG UT ISI:000231375900001 ER PT J AU Kont, A Ratas, U Puurmann, E TI Sea-level rise impact on coastal areas of Estonia SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Article RP Kont, A, ESTONIAN ACAD SCI,INST ECOL,KEVADE 2,EE-0001 TALLINN,ESTONIA. AB Due to long coastline (3,794 km in total) and extensive low-lying coastal areas, global climate change through sea-level rise will strongly affect the territory of Estonia. A number of valuable natural ecosystems (both, marine and terrestrial) containing rare plant communities often rich in species, but also suitable breeding places for birds will be in danger. Most sandy beaches high in recreative value will disappear. However, isostatic land uplift and location of coastal settlements at a distance from the present coastline reduce the rate of risk. Four case study areas characterizing all the shore types of Estonia have been selected for sea-level rise vulnerability and adaptation assessment. Preliminary results and estimates of vulnerability to 1.0 m sea-level rise by 2075 for two case study areas - Hiiumaa, West-Estonian Archipelago and Parnu-Ikla, south-western coast of the mainland are presented in this paper. CR INGELOG T, 1993, RED DATA BOOK BALTIC, V1, P95 ORVIKU K, 1972, GEOGR STUDIES, P15 ORVIKU K, 1987, EESTI LOODUS, V11, P712 ORVIKU K, 1992, THESIS TARTU U TARTU, P20 VALLNER L, 1988, J GEODYN, V9, P215 NR 5 TC 4 J9 CLIMATIC CHANGE BP 175 EP 184 PY 1997 PD MAY-JUN VL 36 IS 1-2 GA XH635 UT ISI:A1997XH63500012 ER PT J AU Sansom, AL TI Upland vegetation management: The impacts of overstocking SO WATER SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY LA English DT Article C1 Environm Agcy, Leeds LS1 2QG, W Yorkshire, England. RP Sansom, AL, Environm Agcy, Rivers House,21 Pk Sq S, Leeds LS1 2QG, W Yorkshire, England. AB During the last century, the numbers of sheep in Britain have increased significantly. Today a large proportion of the total flock is concentrated in the uplands. In terms of wildlife and landscape, Britain's uplands are among the most vulnerable areas. Poor, thin soils, high rainfall, and extremes of climate and slope increase their vulnerability. Damage to land in the uplands is also likely to have adverse effects downstream. In particular fisheries, water resources and flood defences are likely to be put at risk. It is widely recognised that the increased numbers of stock have led to a reduction in biodiversity in the uplands. It is less widely recognised that they may also have caused soil erosion, riverbank erosion, increased run-off reduced aquifer recharge and low river flows. Ultimately, the process of desertification (severe and catastrophic soil erosion) results in hillsides that have been stripped of their vegetation and soils, a process which is accelerating in Britain's uplands. This paper considers the problem by highlighting the processes involved and by presenting case studies from Britain and the USA. (C) 1999 IAWQ Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *DEP ENV TRANSP RE, 1998, ENV EFF AGR FIN REP *ENV AG, 1998, UND RIV ER *NAT SHEEP ASS, 1995, SHEEP UK OUR NAT HID *ROYAL COMM ENV PO, 1996, SUST US SOIL *ROYAL SOC NAT CON, 1996, CRIS HILLS OV UPL *US EPA, 1993, LIV GRAZ W RIP AR CHANEY E, 1998, COMMUNICATION EVANS R, 1993, LANDSCAPE SENSITIVIT EVANS R, 1996, SOIL EROSION ITS IMP EVANS R, 1998, PROG PHYS GEOG, V22, P251 LOXHAM J, 1997, SHEEP INDUCED EROSIO NEWBORN D, 1991, GAME CONSERVANCY REV, P106 ORR HG, 1997, UNPUB RIVER MANAGEME OWENS LB, 1997, J SOIL WATER CONSERV, V52, P194 SANSOM AL, 1996, NEWSLETTER BRIT HYDR, V49 SANSOM AL, 1997, NEWSLETTER BRIT HYDR, V53 VANDERPOST KD, 1997, J PALEOLIMNOL, V18, P103 WHITE P, 1996, J CIWEM 0610 NR 18 TC 2 J9 WATER SCI TECHNOL BP 85 EP 92 PY 1999 VL 39 IS 12 GA 229BV UT ISI:000082174400013 ER PT J AU Alcamo, J Henrichs, T TI Critical regions: A model-based estimation of world water resources sensitive to global changes SO AQUATIC SCIENCES LA English DT Article C1 Univ Kassel, Ctr Environm Syst Res, D-34109 Kassel, Germany. RP Alcamo, J, Univ Kassel, Ctr Environm Syst Res, Kurt Wolters Str 3, D-34109 Kassel, Germany. AB This paper presents a top-down approach for identifying regions whose water resources have higher sensitivity to global change than other regions. The aim of this approach is to provide an overview of regions that may justify special attention from the research and development assistance community, under particular global change scenarios. As a 'top-down' method it is best seen as a type of sensitivity analysis that can complement rather than replace other 'bottom-up' studies of the vulnerability of particular watersheds. An increase in 'water stress' is used as a measure of increasing sensitivity of watersheds to global change, and this stress is computed with the global water model, WaterGAP. Stress increases when either water withdrawals increase or water availability decreases. Since the criteria for determining critical regions is uncertain, they are calculated and compared for four different sets of criteria. To examine the difference in critical regions under different socio-economic and climate scenarios, they were also calculated for four distinctive scenarios. Under the scenario showing the largest increase in water stresses, the estimated area of critical regions (in 2032) ranges from 7.4 to 13.0 percent of total land area, depending on the criteria for identifying critical regions. As expected, the estimate of critical regions is very scenario-dependent, showing smaller areas under scenarios having smaller increases in water stress. However, some regions always appear as critical regions regardless of the scenario. These include parts of central Mexico, the Middle East, large parts of the Indian sub-continent, and stretches of the North African coast. CR *IPCC, 2000, SPEC REP EEM SCEN MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 *IWMI, 2000, WAT DEM SUPPL 1990 2 *OECD, 1991, STAT ENV 1991 *RIVM, 2001, RIVM CDROM PUBL *UNDP, 1997, HUM DEV REP 1997 *UNEP, 2002, GLOB ENV OUTL 3 *WRI, 2000, WORLD RES 2000 01 *WWC, 2000, WORLD WAT VIS WAT SE ALCAMO J, 1997, A9701 U KASS CTR ENV ALCAMO J, 1998, GLOBAL CHANGE SCENAR ALCAMO J, 2000, WORLD WATER 2025 GLO ALCAMO J, 2002, IN PRESS HYDROLOGICA COSGROVE W, 2002, WORLD WATER VISION M DOLL P, 2002, WATER RESOURCES RES, V38 RASKIN P, 1997, WATER FUTURES ASSESS RASKIN P, 1999, 2 STOCKH ENV I STERN PC, 1992, GLOBAL ENV CHANGE UN VOROSMARTY CJ, 2000, SCIENCE, V289, P284 NR 19 TC 0 J9 AQUAT SCI BP 352 EP 362 PY 2002 VL 64 IS 4 GA 639JD UT ISI:000180624100004 ER PT J AU Williams, JH Ghanadan, R TI Electricity reform in developing and transition countries: A reappraisal SO ENERGY LA English DT Review C1 Univ Calif Berkeley, Energy & Resources Grp, Berkeley, CA 94720 USA. RP Ghanadan, R, Univ Calif Berkeley, Energy & Resources Grp, 310 Barrows Hall, Berkeley, CA 94720 USA. AB Since about 1990, many developing and transition countries have undertaken market-oriented reforms in their electric power sectors. Despite the widespread adoption of a standard policy model, reform processes and outcomes have often failed to meet expectations. Drawing on an extensive literature review and case studies in Asia, Africa, Latin America, and Eastern Europe, this paper describes common features of non-OECD electricity reform and reappraises reform policies and underlying assumptions. Comparison with the sector-focused policy goals of deregulation in OECD countries highlights the importance of national fiscal crises, macroeconomic reforms, and persuasion by multilateral lenders in shaping non-OECD reforms. It also makes clear reform's dependence on attracting foreign capital, and consequent vulnerability to volatile international financial conditions. Case studies of Bolivia, Ghana, India, Poland, and Thailand illustrate reform's diverse pathways and problems in different settings. A broad range of non-OECD reform experiences indicates that disappointing results have often resulted from a narrow focus on finance and cost recovery, inflexibly applied. The paper concludes that improving reform will require emphasizing a broader set of objectives, including service provision, public benefits, effective regulation, and social/political legitimacy. Above all, reforms must be based on realistic assessments of national needs and capabilities. (C) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR 2001, ASIAINFO DAILY 0426 2003, BANGKOK POST NE 0710 2003, NATION NEWSPAPE 0314 *ADB, 1994, BANK POL IN EN SECT *APERC, 2000, POW INT APEC REG *APERC, 2003, EN INV OUTL APEC REG *BOST CONS GROUP, 2003, IN PRESS DEV NAT STR *ECA LTD, 2003, UNPUB GHAN POW SECT *EIA, EN OV BOL EN INF ADM *EIA, 1996, PRIV GLOB EN MARK *EIA, 2002, INT EN ANN 2001 *EIA, 2004, N CENTR EUR EN INF A *ESMAP, 1993, 15393 ESMAP WORLD BA, V1 *ESMAP, 1994, 17339 ESMAP WORLD BA *ESMAP, 1995, 21520 ESMAP WORLD BA *ESMAP, 1999, 21999 ESMAP WORLD BA *ESMAP, 2000, 00391 ESMAP WORLD BA *IEA, 2002, EL IND PROV POW MILL *IEA, 2003, EN PRIC TAX Q STAT 2 *IEA, 2003, WORLD EN INV OUTL 20 *IND PLANN COMM, 2002, ANN REP 2001 2002 WO *JAMASB T, 2002, 0226 DAE U CAMBR *KAN COMM, 2001, REP COMM POW SECT RE *MOME, 1996, EN SECT DEV PROGR 19 *NEPO, 1999, PRIV LIB EN SECT THA *NEPO, 2000, EL SUPPL IND REF THA *SEPC, 1998, MAST PLAN STAT ENT S *UN, 1952, WORLD EN SUPPL SEL Y *WORLD BANK, 1983, EN TRANS DEV COUNTR *WORLD BANK, 1985, THAIL ISS OPT EN SEC *WORLD BANK, 1993, STAFF APPR REP REP G *WORLD BANK, 1993, WORLD BANKS ROL EL P *WORLD BANK, 1994, 13067BO WORLD BANK *WORLD BANK, 1995, BUR BUS EC POL GOV O *WORLD BANK, 1995, GHAN THERM POW PROJ *WORLD BANK, 1997, 16495 WORLD BANK OP *WORLD BANK, 2000, 20185GH WORLD BANK *WORLD BANK, 2001, 22417 WORLD BANK *WORLD BANK, 2003, 26744 WORLD BANK *WORLD BANK, 2003, INFR IS AG PART WORL *WORLD BANK, 2004, PUBL PRIV SECT ROL S ALBOUY Y, 2001, POLAND REV PRIVATE S ARNOLD W, 2004, NY TIMES 0430 BACON RW, 2001, ANNU REV ENERG ENV, V26, P331 BARJA G, 2003, CAPITALIZATION PRIVA BATES RW, 1997, BULK ELECT PRICING R BOUILLE D, 2002, POWER POLITICS EQUIT BOUILLE D, 2003, ELECT REFORM SOCIAL BOWDEN J, 2001, DOW JONES ASIAN 0221 BYRNE J, 2004, PAC AFF, V77, P493 CAO X, 2003, RESOUR POLICY, V29, P61 CHARPENTIER J, 1995, 42 WORLD BANK CHOW LCH, 2003, ENERG POLICY, V31, P1047 DOMINGUEZ R, 2003, POWER DEV REV WORLD DUBASH N, 2001, EC POLITICAL WKLY, V36, P3367 DUBASH NK, 2002, POWER POLITICS EQUIT DUNKERLEY J, 1995, ENERG POLICY, V23, P927 DUNKERLEY J, 1995, ENERG POLICY, V23, P929 EDJEKUMHENE I, 2002, POWER POLITICS EQUIT ESCAY JR, 1990, SUMMARY DATA SHEETS GREACEN CS, 2004, PAC AFF, V77, P517 HARRISON SS, 2003, WORLD POLICY J, V19, P23 HUNT S, 2002, MAKING COMPETITION W IZAGUIRRE AK, 1998, 154 WORLD BANK JAAFAR MZ, 2003, ENERG POLICY, V31, P1061 JHIRAD D, 1990, ANNU REV ENERG ENV, V15, P365 KALE SS, 2004, PAC AFF, V77, P467 KAPUR MI, 1996, 86 INT MON FUND KAREKEZI S, 2002, ENERG POLICY, V30, P909 KRISHNASWAMY V, 2003, 8 WORLD BANK LAMECH R, 2003, WHAT INT INVESTORS L LERNER E, 2003, IND PHYS, V9, P8 LIEBERMAN I, 2003, PRIVATIZATION PRACTI MANIBOG FR, 2003, POWER DEV REV WORLD MARTIN B, 1993, PUBLIC INTEREST PRIV MCDONALD D, 2002, COST RECOVERY CRISIS MCDONALD DA, 2002, COST RECOVERY SERVIC MEHTA A, 1999, POWER PLAY STUDY ENR OPUM M, 2000, POWER SECTOR REFORM PALAST G, 2003, DEMOCRACY REGULATION PHADKE A, 2003, EC POLITICAL WKLY, V38 PHONGPAICHIT P, 1998, THAILANDS BOOM BUST PRZEWORSKI A, 1991, DEMOCRACY MARKET POL REID WV, 1998, ENERG POLICY, V26, P233 SALAMEH MG, 2003, ENERG POLICY, V31, P1085 SEYMOUR F, 2002, POWER POLITICS EQUIT STIGLITZ JE, 2002, GLOBALIZATION ITS DI STIGLITZ JE, 2003, ROARING 90 NEW HIST STREETS DG, 2003, ENERGY, V28, P789 SUDING PH, 1996, ENERG POLICY, V24, P437 TELLAM I, 2000, FUEL CHANGE WORLD BA VONHIRSCHHAUSEN C, 2001, POWER UTILITY REREGU VROLIJK C, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE POWER WAMUKONYA N, 2003, ENERG POLICY, V31, P1273 WATTS M, 1994, PROG HUM GEOG, V18, P371 WILLIAMS JH, 2004, PAC AFF, V77, P3 WILLIAMSON J, 1994, POLITICAL EC POLICY WOO CK, 2003, ENERG POLICY, V31, P1103 YEH ET, 2004, PAC AFF, V77, P437 YERGIN D, 1998, COMMANDING HEIGHTS B NR 100 TC 1 J9 ENERGY BP 815 EP 844 PY 2006 PD MAY-JUN VL 31 IS 6-7 GA 014KI UT ISI:000235478500006 ER PT J AU PHILLIPS, VD CHUVELIOV, AV TAKAHASHI, PK TI RENEWABLE-ENERGY PARADOX IN PARADISE - A CASE-STUDY OF HAWAII SO APPLIED ENERGY LA English DT Article C1 IV KURCHATOV ATOM ENERGY INST,MOSCOW 123182,RUSSIA. RP PHILLIPS, VD, UNIV HAWAII MANOA,COLL TROP AGR & HUMAN RESOURCES,HONOLULU,HI 96822. AB Hawaii is committed to replacing imported oil with indigenous, renewable energy resources to enhance the economic and environmental security of the state's citizens. A case study of Hawaii's fuel-energy balance by the end of the 21st century which features two scenarios, a 'Business-as-Usual' energy system, based on imported fossil fuels, and a 'Renewable-Energy' scenario, based on an alternative energy system consisting entirely of indigenous, renewable energy resources, is presented. In the year 2100, a projected total energy consumption of approximately 335 million gigajoules would be provided from a hypothetical renewable-energy system of approximately 13 gigawatts-electric of installed capacity. This system would feature methanol-from-biomass to meet liquid fuel requirements for surface transportation, industrial, commercial, and residential sectors; hydrogen via electrolysis in liquid form for air transportation and as a gaseous fuel for industrial purposes; and electricity generated from geothermal, ocean thermal, wind, and photovoltaic sources for all power applications. A comprehensive economic analysis, including capital costs, operating and maintenance costs, air pollution costs for the total fuel cycle of each energy system, and a local multiplier effect factor of 3.75 per dollar, indicates that between the years of 1987 and 2100 the 'Business-as-Usual' scenario will have expended approximately $600 billion (1986 US dollars), and the 'Renewable-Energy' scenario will have cost approximately $400 billion. By switching from imported fossil fuels to indigenous, renewable energy resources during this time period, Hawaii's citizens could save approximately $200 billion to help preserve paradise. CR 1987 1988 STAT HAW D 1980, EMISSION INVENTORY S 1986, UNIFORM PROVISIONAL 1988, EPA450487024 1988, SEP P INT REN EN C D 1989, DOECE0279 US DEP EN 1989, ENERGY SYSTEM EMISSI 1989, JUL P ENH REN EN DEV 1990, PROJECT 300 MWE COAL BAGLEY MH, 1989, HSPA27 EN REP CHUVELIOV AV, 1989, 9TH P INT C EN ENV M CHUVELIOV AV, 1990, 8TH P WORLD HYDR EN LOVINS AB, 1977, ENERGY PATHS DURABLE NEILL DR, 1989, JAN INT S DEV MAN EN, P3 PHILLIPS V, 1989, 3RD P PAC BAS BIOF W PHILLIPS V, 1989, ENVIRON SCI TECHNOL, V23, P10 PHILLIPS VD, 1989, 9TH P INT C EN ENV M PHILLIPS VF, 1990, 14 P IGT EN BIOM WAS SANMARTIN RL, 1989, ENV EMISSIONS ENERGY SHUPE J, 1982, SCIENCE, V216, P1193 NR 20 TC 0 J9 APPL ENERG BP 299 EP 339 PY 1994 VL 47 IS 4 GA MX924 UT ISI:A1994MX92400001 ER PT J AU Kundzewicz, ZW TI Water and climate - The IPCC TAR perspective SO NORDIC HYDROLOGY LA English DT Article C1 Polish Acad Sci, Res Ctr Agr & Forest Environm, PL-60809 Poznan, Poland. Potsdam Inst Climat Impacts Res, D-14412 Potsdam, Germany. RP Kundzewicz, ZW, Polish Acad Sci, Res Ctr Agr & Forest Environm, Bukowska 19, PL-60809 Poznan, Poland. AB The aim of the present contribution, opening a session on climate change and hydrology at the 2002 Nordic Hydrological Conference in Roros, Norway, is to discuss essential water-related findings of the Third Assessment Report (TAR) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), with particular reference to region-specific issues of the Nordic region. Discussion of impacts of climate variability and change embraces both already observed effects and projections for the future. After review of changes in hydrological processes, climate-related impacts on extreme hydrological events - floods and droughts are outlined. Finally, adaptation and vulnerability are dealt with, including presentation of key water-related regional concerns in various parts of the World. CR ARNELL NW, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 CHIEW FHS, 1993, INT J CLIMATOL, V13, P643 HOUGHTON JT, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 KUNDZEWICZ ZW, 2000, WCDMP45 WORLD CLIM P MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 PARRY ML, 2002, ASSESSMENT POTENTIAL WATSON RT, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 NR 7 TC 0 J9 NORD HYDROL BP 387 EP 398 PY 2003 VL 34 IS 5 GA 774DK UT ISI:000188964300001 ER PT J AU Williams, JE TI The biodiversity crisis and adaptation to climate change: A case study from Australia's forests SO ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING AND ASSESSMENT LA English DT Article C1 Univ Melbourne, Sch Bot, Parkville, Vic 3052, Australia. RP Williams, JE, Univ Melbourne, Sch Bot, Parkville, Vic 3052, Australia. AB If current trends continue, human activities will drastically alter most of the planet's remaining natural ecosystems and their composite biota within a few decades. Compounding the impacts on biodiversity from deleterious management practices is climate variability and change. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) recently concluded that there is ample evidence to suggest climate change is likely to result in significant impacts on biological diversity. These impacts are likely to be exacerbated by the secondary effects of climate change such as changes in the occurrence of wildfire, insect outbreaks and similar disturbances. Current changes in climate are very different from those of the past due to their rate and magnitude, the direct effects of increased atmospheric CO2 concentrations and because highly modified landscapes and an array of threatening processes limit the ability of terrestrial ecosystems and species to respond to changed conditions. One of the primary human adaptation option for conserving biodiversity is considered to be changes in management. The complex and overarching nature of climate change issues emphasises the need for greatly enhanced cooperation between scientists, policy makers, industry and the community to better understand key interaction's and identify options for adaptation. A key challenge is to identify opportunities that facilitate sustainable development by making use of existing technologies and developing policies that enhance the resilience of climate-sensitive sectors. Measures to enhance the resilience of biodiversity must be considered in all of these activities if many ecosystem services essential to humanity are to be sustained. New institutional arrangements appear necessary at the regional and national level to ensure that policy initiatives and research directed at assessing and mitigating the vulnerability of biodiversity to climate change are complementary and undertaken strategically and cost-effectively. Policy implementation at the national level to meet responsibilities arising from the UNFCCC (e.g., the Kyoto Protocol) and the UN Convention on Biological Diversity require greater coordination and integration between economic sectors, since many primary drivers of biodiversity loss and vulnerability are influenced at this level. A case study from the Australian continent is used to illustrate several key issues and discuss a basis for reform, including recommendations for facilitating adaptation to climate variability and change. CR *COMM AUSTR, 1996, AUSTR STAT ENV 1996 *COMM AUSTR, 1996, NAT STRAT CONS AUSTR *COMM AUSTR, 1997, AUSTR 1 APPR REP MON *COMM AUSTR, 1997, FRAM REG SUBN LEV CR AUSTIN MP, 1997, EUCALYPTUS ECOLOGY I, P129 BASHER RE, 1998, REGIONAL IMPACTS CLI, P105 BRERETON R, 1995, BIOL CONSERV, V72, P339 DAILY GC, 1997, ISSUES ECOLOGY DALE VH, 1997, ECOL APPL, V7, P753 DOVERS SR, IN PRESS AMBIO DOVERS SR, 1996, BIODIVERS CONSERV, V5, P1143 FREIDENBURG LK, 1998, CONSERVATION BIOL CO, P66 GRICE AC, 1996, 11 AUSTR WEEDS C P W, P195 HALPIN PN, 1997, ECOL APPL, V7, P828 HUGHES L, 1996, GLOBAL ECOL BIOGEOGR, V5, P23 LANDSBERG JJ, 1996, GREENHOUSE COPING CL, P205 LUBCHENCO J, 1991, ECOLOGY, V72, P371 MOONEY HA, 1994, AMBIO, V23, P74 NORTON TW, 1996, FOREST ECOL MANAG, V85, P21 NORTON TW, 1998, COMMUNICATION PAUSAS JG, 1997, ECOL APPL, V7, P921 ROSETTA M, 1997, CONSERVATION OUTSIDE, P442 WATSON RT, 1998, REGIONAL IMPACTS CLI, V1, P1 WILLIAMS JE, 1994, CLIMATE CHANGE MAINT NR 24 TC 1 J9 ENVIRON MONIT ASSESS BP 65 EP 74 PY 2000 PD MAR VL 61 IS 1 GA 300UB UT ISI:000086270100005 ER PT J AU Fisher, A TI Preliminary findings from the Mid-Atlantic Regional Assessment SO CLIMATE RESEARCH LA English DT Article C1 Penn State Univ, Dept Agr Econ & Rural Sociol, University Pk, PA 16802 USA. RP Fisher, A, Penn State Univ, Dept Agr Econ & Rural Sociol, University Pk, PA 16802 USA. AB This paper summarizes (1) the major positive and negative climate change impacts likely in the Mid-Atlantic Region (MAR), (2) options to make the MAR more resilient to climate change, and (3) priorities for improving such regional assessments. Major findings include: (1) the MAR economy is likely to be reasonably resilient to a somewhat warmer, wetter climate, although there could be substantial impacts on the region's ecosystems and some people will gain while others lose because of climate change; and (2) many cost-effective actions could be taken now to protect and enhance the quality of life in the MAR that would have side benefits of reducing vulnerability to climate variability and change. CR ABLER DG, 1999, MIDATLANTIC REGIONAL ABLER DG, 2000, CLIMATE RES, V14, P185 ABLER DG, 2000, IN PRESS GLOBAL PLAN BENSON K, 2000, CLIMATE RES, V14, P245 CRANE RG, 2000, IN PRESS HUMAN ECOL FISHER A, 1999, MIDATLANTIC REGIONAL FISHER A, 2000, CLIMATE RES, V14, P153 IVERSON LR, 1998, ECOL MONOGR, V68, P465 MCKENNEYEASTERLING M, 2000, CLIMATE RES, V14, P195 NAJJAR RG, 1999, J HYDROL, V219, P7 NAJJAR RG, 2000, CLIMATE RES, V14, P219 NEFF R, 2000, CLIMATE RES, V14, P207 OCONNOR RE, 2000, CLIMATE RES, V14, P255 POLSKY C, 2000, CLIMATE RES, V14, P161 ROGERS CE, 2000, CLIMATE RES, V14, P235 ROSE A, 2000, CLIMATE RES, V14, P175 WATSON RT, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, V1, P1 NR 17 TC 0 J9 CLIMATE RES BP 261 EP 269 PY 2000 PD MAY 2 VL 14 IS 3 GA 326ZD UT ISI:000087766400012 ER PT J AU Widdicombe, S Austen, MC Kendall, MA Olsgard, F Schaanning, MT Dashfield, SL Needham, HR TI Importance of bioturbators for biodiversity maintenance: indirect effects of fishing disturbance SO MARINE ECOLOGY-PROGRESS SERIES LA English DT Article C1 Plymouth Marine Lab, Plymouth PL1 3DH, Devon, England. Norwegian Inst Water Res, N-0411 Oslo, Norway. Univ Oslo, Dept Biol, Sect Marine Biol & Limnol, N-0316 Oslo, Norway. RP Widdicombe, S, Plymouth Marine Lab, Prospect Pl,W Hoe, Plymouth PL1 3DH, Devon, England. AB The relative impact on macrofaunal diversity of 7 naturally co-occurring bioturbators has been examined in a benthic mesocosm experiment, The bioturbators chosen were selected because of their potential vulnerability to the disturbances associated with demersal trawling. The experiment was conducted at the Solbergstrand mesocosm (Norwegian Institute for Water Research) using subtidal sediment collected from Bjornehodebukta, a small sheltered bay in the Oslofjord. For 3 of the bioturbating species (Brissopsis lyrifera, Aphrodita aculeata and Amphiura chiajei) a positive, linear relationship was demonstrated between bioturbator abundance and measures of species richness (number of species and Margalef species richness). It was suggested that the presence of these bioturbating species increased oxygen penetration into the sediment, leading to an enhancement in the ability of benthic systems to process organic material. This had a beneficial effect on the associated fauna in terms of maintaining levels of diversity. For Nephtys caeca, highest species diversity was seen in the low abundance treatments. Predation by N. caeca on small polychaetes is proposed as a possible explanation of the lower diversity in high-density treatments. It is concluded that B. lyrifera, A. aculeata, A. chiajei and N. caeca are functionally similar with respect to setting the diversity of the associated macrobenthic community and may therefore fulfill the same role within the benthic ecosystem. The presence of Calocaris macandreae, Nuculana minuta and Astarte sulcata had no detectable effect on diversity. Trawling has been shown to reduce the abundance of bioturbating species, and the current study demonstrates important implications of this loss on the maintenance of diversity. In addition, the interactions between bioturbation, diversity and organic enrichment highlight the need for management of anthropogenic impacts within the coastal environment in a holistic way rather than by isolation. 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RP Kay, PA, Univ Waterloo, Waterloo, ON N2L 3G1, Canada. AB Sustainability of water resources is often gauged as the gap between supply and projections of demand. This static view, however, is insufficient to judge the ability of a system to cope with uncertainty and variability, and does not monitor progress towards sustainability. That is, sustainability should be viewed as a process. not a goal. Commonly, trued performance indicators such as reliability. resiliency, and vulnerability nt-e some aspects of the concept of sustainability. They are easy to use, can monitor trends. and can be adapted to account for changes in physical and social systems that affect the concept of sustainability. The case of Israel is considered as illustration. The water system and agricultural production dependent on it have exhibited high vulnerability and low resilience and reliability in spite of change to the master water plan at the beginning of the 1990s. 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AB Gilbert White has had a profound influence on natural resources and hazards research, but the philosophy that guides his work has not been dearly defined. White's approach has broad affinities with the pragmatic tradition of American social thought, most notably with the work of John Dewey. This paper compares four major themes in the work of White and Dewey: the precariousness of existence, the pragmatic conception of inquiry, learning from experience, and discourse and democracy. For each theme, I show how similarities and differences between White and Dewey can help to clarify controversies within geography, and directions for future research. 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GF, 1972, PROF GEOGR, V24, P302 WHITE GF, 1978, HUM ECOL, V6, P229 WHITE GF, 1983, NAT RESOUR FORUM, V7, P11 WHITE GF, 1984, ENV PERCEPTION BEHAV, P93 WHITE GF, 1985, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V75, P10 WHITE GF, 1986, SELECTED WRITINGS G, P176 WHITE GF, 1986, SELECTED WRITINGS G, P278 WHITE GF, 1986, SELECTED WRITINGS G, P393 WHITE GF, 1988, FLOOD CONTROL CHALLE WHITE GF, 1991, COMMUNICATION WHITE GF, 1991, PERSPECTIVES BEHAVIO, P276 WHITE GF, 1992, IBS NEWLSETTER, V1, P3 WHITE GF, 1992, NATURAL HAZARDS OBSE, V16, P1 WHYTE A, 1986, THEMES WORK GF WHITE, P240 WILSON ER, 1975, UPHILL PEACE QUAKER WOLMAN MG, 1986, THEMES WORK GF WHITE, P1 YARROW CHM, 1978, QUAKER EXPERIENCES I NR 144 TC 11 J9 ANN ASSN AMER GEOGR BP 587 EP 607 PY 1992 PD DEC VL 82 IS 4 GA KC292 UT ISI:A1992KC29200002 ER PT J AU Lahsen, M Nobre, CA TI Challenges of connecting international science and local level sustainability efforts: the case of the Large-Scale Biosphere-Atmosphere Experiment in Amazonia SO ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE & POLICY LA English DT Article C1 Univ Colorado, Ctr Sci & Technol Policy Res, Boulder, CO 80309 USA. INPE, BR-12227010 Sao Jose Dos Campos, SP, Brazil. RP Lahsen, M, Care of Silveira J, Rua Agariba 79 Casa 5,Engenho Novo, BR-20715030 Rio De Janeiro, Brazil. AB The Large-Scale Biosphere-Atmosphere Experiment in Amazonia (LBA) is a multi-year Brazil-led international environmental science experiment funded by the U.S. National Aeronautics Space Administration, the European Union and Brazil. It is intended to inform decision making under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) as well as Brazilian national environmental decision-making related to the Amazon region. Focused on the Amazon region, and primarily on the Brazilian Amazon, the LBA is a case study in issues that can arise when doing globally oriented research in a less developed country setting and a test of assumptions that such research simultaneously benefits global and local levels. This article offers a qualitative evaluation of the extent to which the LBA has achieved its goals and identifies structural obstacles within science that must be overcome to improve the fit between international science programs and efforts to nurture more sustainable use of natural resources in a less developed country. (C) 2006 Published by Elsevier Ltd. 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RP Aarset, B, Fdn Res & Econ & Business Adm, Ctr Fisheries Econ, Breiviksvegen 40, N-5045 Bergen, Norway. AB Political decision is a necessary, but not sufficient. precondition for policy implementation. The salmon-farming industry in Washington State provides an example on how institutions affect the implementation of political goals. This article addresses the institutional vulnerability of the marine salmon-farming industry in Washington State. The intersection of human society and nature in the context of salmon farming is composed of three distinct institutional carriers that concern the farmers' access to the coastal area: floating net pens. confinement in the coastal commons, and salmon as a farmed species. Each of these areas of conflict describes an encounter between salmon farming and a segment of public life where institutions give opposing interest group,, access to the policy formation process. Only a few farms are in operation, and at present increased production are unlikely. The industrial organization of the industry is contrasted to two large fin-fish-farming industries, the catfish-farming industry in the southeast USA and the salmon-farming industry in Norway, which provide examples of the effect of supportive and organizing institutions. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. 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RP Halvorson, SJ, Univ Montana, Missoula, MT 59812 USA. AB Many mountain peoples face water and environmental health problems. At particular risk is the health of women and of children who live in remote and marginalized mountain areas. Environmental health concerns are often associated with the waterborne parasitic and endemic diseases responsible for much child morbidity and mortality in the Karakoram-Himalaya of northern Pakistan. Poor environmental health and water-quality conditions affect child survival, and challenges to viable local interventions are severe. Transformations in women's productive and reproductive work have health consequences for children, and gender and household dynamics shape and mediate women's responses to environmental health risks. Significantly, these findings draw attention to the need for improved water and health policy, especially policy that recognizes different gender and child-care roles in mountainous regions of the developing world. 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A contribution to integrated coastal zone management SO GEOLOGIE EN MIJNBOUW LA English DT Article C1 Netherlands Inst Appl Geosci, TNO, Natl Geol Survey, NL-3508 TA Utrecht, Netherlands. RP de Groot, TAM, Netherlands Inst Appl Geosci, TNO, Natl Geol Survey, POB 80015, NL-3508 TA Utrecht, Netherlands. AB This Special Issue deals with the impact of climate change on western European coastal systems. Notwithstanding the inherent problems of studying geological data in terms of climate shifts, the results show that on the meso- and the macroscale of time, climatic forcing is a major drive for coastal change. However, its impact is largely influenced by other factors. Sediment availability plays a dominant role in the evolution of coastal systems and it can be considered one of the most important thresholds at the land-ocean interface. Sea-level changes are expected to have a significant impact on most European coasts. There is particular concern for the tidally influenced flats and marshes, and for those coastal areas known to have already a net sediment deficit and to be threatened by erosion. Areas where isostatic uplift has countered sea-level rise until now, are expected to become subject to coastal erosion in the near future under an accelerated sea-level rise scenario. The sensitivity and vulnerability of coastal systems to climate shifts is shown to be largely controlled by storm magnitude and fetch. A particular case of vulnerability is the impact of tsunamis. Finally, the consequences of human interference have been demonstrated in many cases. The implementation of geoscientific studies for rational, comprehensive and cost-effective strategies on a regional or national level of integrated coastal zone management is reviewed. 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WHO, CH-1211 Geneva, Switzerland. RP Haines, A, Univ London London Sch Hyg & Trop Med, Keppel St, London WC1E 7HT, England. AB It is now widely accepted that climate change is occurring as a result of the accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere arising from the combustion of fossil fuels. Climate change may affect health through a range of pathways-eg, as a result of increased frequency and intensity of heat waves, reduction in cold-related deaths, increased floods and droughts, changes in the distribution of vector-borne diseases, and effects on the risk of disasters and malnutrition. The overall balance of effects on health is likely to be negative and populations in low-income countries are likely to be particularly vulnerable to the adverse effects. The experience of the 2003 heat wave in Europe shows that high-income countries might also be adversely affected. Adaptation to climate change requires public-health strategies and improved surveillance. Mitigation of climate change by reducing the use of fossil fuels and increasing the use of a number of renewable energy technologies should improve health in the near term by reducing exposure to air pollution. CR 2003, IMPACT SANITAIRE VAG *INT PAN CLIM CHAN, 2001, CLIM CHANG 2001 IMP *SOZ BAD WUERTT, 2004, GES AUSW HITZ AUG 20 *WHO, 2002, WORLD HLTH REP 2002 AHERN M, 2005, EPIDEMIOL REV, V27, P36 ALBERING HJ, 1999, ENVIRON HEALTH PERSP, V107, P37 BOTELHO J, 2005, ONDA CALOR AGOSTO 20 BOUMA MJ, 1997, LANCET, V350, P1435 CONTI S, 2005, ENVIRON RES, V98, P390 DIOP M, 1994, 453 WASH US AG INT D DUCLOS P, 1991, EUR J EPIDEMIOL, V7, P365 EMANUEL K, 2005, NATURE, V436, P686 ESTRELA T, 2001, SUSTAINABLE WATER 3 EURIPIDOU E, 2004, J PUBLIC HEALTH, V26, P376 FEW R, IN PRESS FLOOD HAZAR FRENCH J, 1983, PUBLIC HLTH REP, V98, P584 GARSSEN J, 2005, EURO SURVEILL, V10, P165 GHEBREYESUS TA, 1999, BRIT MED J, V319, P663 GRIZE L, 2005, SWISS MED WKLY, V135, P200 HAINES A, 2000, GLOBAL CHANGE HUMAN, V1, P2 HAINES A, 2004, JAMA-J AM MED ASSOC, V291, P99 HALES S, 2002, LANCET, V360, P830 HULME M, 2002, UKC1P02 E ANGL SCH JACOBSON MZ, 2005, SCIENCE, V308, P1901 JOHNSON H, 2005, HLTH STAT Q, V25, P6 KAMMEN DM, 1995, SCI AM, V273, P72 KOVATS RS, 2001, PHILOS T ROY SOC B, V356, P1057 KOVATS RS, 2003, LANCET, V361, P1481 KOVATS RS, 2005, RISK ANAL, V25, P1409 LANGNER J, 2005, ATMOS ENVIRON, V39, P1129 LETERTRE A, 2006, EPIDEMIOLOGY, V17, P75 LINDGREN E, 2000, ENVIRON HEALTH PERSP, V108, P119 LUTERBACHER J, 2004, SCIENCE, V303, P1499 MARTIN PH, 1995, AMBIO, V24, P200 MCMICHAEL AJ, 1999, BRIT MED J, V319, P977 MCMICHAEL AJ, 2004, COMP QUANTIFICATION, V2, P1543 MCMICHAEL AJ, 2006, LANCET, V367, P859 MENNE B, 2005, CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPT MEUSEL D, 2005, EXTREME WEATHER EVEN, P175 MURRAY CJL, 1996, GLOBAL BURDEN DIS CO NOJI EK, 1997, PUBLIC HLTH CONSEQUE PARRY ML, 1998, NATURE, V395, P741 PURSE BV, 2005, NAT REV MICROBIOL, V3, P171 ROGERS DJ, 2000, SCIENCE, V289, P1763 SIDDIQUE AK, 1991, J DIARRHOEAL DIS RES, V9, P310 SIMON F, 2005, EURO SURVEILL, V10, P156 SKARPHEDINSSON S, 2005, EMERG INFECT DIS, V117, P1055 SMALL J, 2003, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V100, P15341 SMITH JB, 1996, CLIMATE RES, V6, P193 STOTT PA, 2004, NATURE, V432, P610 TANSER FC, 2003, LANCET, V362, P1792 THOMAS CJ, 2004, TRENDS PARASITOL, V20, P216 VANDENTORREN S, 2004, AM J PUBLIC HEALTH, V94, P1518 WANG X, 1999, WHOSDEPHE9901 WEBSTER PJ, 2005, SCIENCE, V309, P1844 WIGLEY TML, 1996, NATURE, V379, P240 NR 56 TC 4 J9 LANCET BP 2101 EP 2109 PY 2006 PD JUN 24 VL 367 IS 9528 GA 058HZ UT ISI:000238657400035 ER PT J AU Thuiller, W Broennimann, O Hughes, G Alkemade, JRM Midgley, GF Corsi, F TI Vulnerability of African mammals to anthropogenic climate change under conservative land transformation assumptions SO GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY LA English DT Article C1 Univ Grenoble 1, CNRS, UMR 5553, Lab Ecol Alpine, F-38041 Grenoble 9, France. S African Natl Biodivers Inst, Global Change Res Grp, ZA-7735 Cape Town, South Africa. Univ Lausanne, Lab Biol Conservat, CH-1015 Lausanne, Switzerland. Netherlands Environm Assessment Agcy, MNP RIVM, NL-3720 AH Bilthoven, Netherlands. Int Inst Geoinformat Sci & Earth Observat, NL-7500 AA Enschede, Netherlands. RP Thuiller, W, Univ Grenoble 1, CNRS, UMR 5553, Lab Ecol Alpine, BP 53, F-38041 Grenoble 9, France. AB Recent observations show that human-induced climate change (CC) and land transformation (LT) are threatening wildlife globally. Thus, there is a need to assess the sensitivity of wildlife on large spatial scales and evaluate whether national parks (NPs), a key conservation tools used to protect species, will meet their mandate under future CC and LT conditions. Here, we assess the sensitivity of 277 mammals at African scale to CC at 10' resolution, using static LT assumptions in a 'first-cut' estimate, in the absence of credible future LT trends. We examine the relationship between species' current distribution and macroclimatic variables using generalized additive models, and include LT indirectly as a filter. Future projections are derived using two CC scenarios (for 2050 and 2080) to estimate the spatial patterns of loss and gain in species richness that might ultimately result. We then apply the IUCN Red List criteria A3(c) of potential range loss to evaluate species sensitivity. We finally estimate the sensitivity of 141 NPs in terms of both species richness and turnover. Assuming no spread of species, 10-15% of the species are projected to fall within the critically endangered or extinct categories by 2050 and between 25% and 40% by 2080. Assuming unlimited species spread, less extreme results show proportions dropping to approximately 10-20% by 2080. Spatial patterns of richness loss and gain show contrasting latitudinal patterns with a westward range shift of species around the species-rich equatorial zone in central Africa, and an eastward shift in southern Africa, mainly because of latitudinal aridity gradients across these ecological transition zones. Xeric shrubland NPs may face significant richness losses not compensated by species influxes. Other NPs might expect substantial losses and influxes of species. On balance, the NPs might ultimately realize a substantial shift in the mammalian species composition of a magnitude unprecedented in recent geological time. To conclude, the effects of global CC and LT on wildlife communities may be most noticeable not as a loss of species from their current ranges, but instead as a fundamental change in community composition. 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AB Conceptual equations are presented for the net benefits, total risk, and total vulnerability associated with hazard zone occupation. It is shown that, as they are polycausal phenomena, landslides require a more sophisticated approach to this form of analysis than that employed for most other forms of hazard. Three examples of landsliding are examined. At Cuyocuyo, in the Peruvian Cordillera Oriental, slope instability is virtually inevitable, but human intervention may be disturbing some very fragile natural equilibria. At Calciano, in southern Italy, deforestation has resulted in a mudflow disaster, although man-made factors are not the only causes at work. Finally, in the Valle dell'Orco (also in southern Italy) demographic and agrarian change have aided the partial metamorphosis of the catchment into a large-scale mudflow complex (although the longer-term causes are natural, tectonic ones). These examples illustrate parts of the continuum that extends from dominant natural to dominant anthropogenic causes. Human intervention has played a key role in stimulating the natural antecedents of landslides occurring in the study areas. It is concluded that risk perception has not been wide enough to promote adequate risk mitigation, in part because of a failure properly to conceive of landslides as polycausal phenomena, in which man-made causes effectively cannot-and should not-be separated from natural ones. 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RP Garcia-Mora, MR, Univ Sevilla, Dept Biol Vegetal & Ecol, Apdo 1095, E-41080 Seville, Spain. AB The investigation reported here is concerned with the use of plant diversity measures for coastal dune monitoring. The original set of recorded plant species on dune systems was broken into 3 functionally homogeneous groups, which allow ecological comparisons among foredune vegetation on a much wider sense than traditional taxonomic approaches. Plant diversity was measured both, as species richness and as the rate of species number increase with area. Plant diversity values were tested as a dependent variable of a coastal dune vulnerability Index. Increasing coastal dunes vulnerability, caused by natural or human events, lowered the rate of species increase with area within the plant functional type associated to prograding foredunes. Results suggest that plant diversity within this functional type, measured as the slope of the species-area curve, may be used as a management tool for predicting coastal dune vulnerability. 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RP Rashed, T, San Diego State Univ, Dept Geog, San Diego, CA 92182 USA. AB Assessing urban vulnerability to natural hazards such as earthquakes can be regarded as an ill-structured problem (i.e. a problem for which there is no unique, identifiable, objectively optimal solution). A review of the literature indicates a number of contrasting definitions of what vulnerability means, as well as numerous conflicting perspectives on what should or should not be included within the broad assessment of vulnerability in cities. This paper reports on the findings from a project in which a GIS methodology has been developed to assess urban vulnerability through a spatial analytical procedure. First, we highlight the deficiencies of current GIS approaches to urban vulnerability analysis and discuss the ill-structured nature of the vulnerability problem. We then propose a working definition for vulnerability assessment in which vulnerability is thought of as a spatial decision problem under the conditions of uncertainty. Next, we present a methodology to incorporate this definition into a GIS framework that combines elements from the techniques of spatial multicriteria analysis and fuzzy logic. The application of this methodology is then illustrated with a case study from Los Angeles County. The results suggest that the proposed methodology may provide a new approach for analyzing vulnerability that can add to our understanding of human/hazards interaction. 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RP Pandey, DN, Forestry Training Inst, Jaipur 302015, Rajasthan, India. AB Land-use options that increase resilience and reduce vulnerability of contemporary societies are fundamental to livelihood improvement and adaptation to environmental change. Agroforestry as a traditional land-use adaptation may potentially support livelihood improvement through simultaneous production of food, fodder and firewood as well as mitigation of the impact of climate change. Drawing on the representative literature, here, I critically review the contribution of agroforestry systems in India to: (i) biodiversity conservation; (ii) yield of goods and services to society; (iii) augmentation of the carbon storage in agroecosystems; (iv) enhancing the fertility of the soils, and (v) providing social and economic well-being to people. Agroforestry systems in India contribute variously to ecological, social and economic functions, but they are only complementary - and not as an alternative - to natural ecosystems. To promote well-being of the society, management of multifunctional agroforestry needs to be strengthened by innovations in domestication of useful species and crafting market regimes for the products derived from agroforestry and ethnoforestry systems. Future research is required to eliminate many of the uncertainties that remain, and also carefully test the main functions attributed to agroforestry against alternative land-use options in order to know unequivocally as to what extent agroforestry served these purposes. CR *AFD ADB DFID, 2003, POV CLIM CHANG RED V *MIN ENV FOR, 1999, NAT FOR ACT PROGR, V1 ALBRECHT A, 2003, AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON, V99, P15 ANGELSEN A, AGROFORESTRY BIODIVE, P87 ARUNACHALAM A, 2002, CURR SCI INDIA, V83, P117 BAWA KS, 2004, SCIENCE, V306, P227 BELCHER B, 2005, WORLD DEV, V33, P1435 BELCHER BM, 2005, INT FOREST REV, V7, P82 BHATT BP, 2003, J SUSTAIN AGR, V22, P99 BOWONDER B, 1988, WORLD DEV, V16, P1213 BRADFORD A, 2003, ENVIRON URBAN, V15, P157 BRIDGE J, 1996, ANNU REV PHYTOPATHOL, V34, P201 CARNEY D, 1998, SUSTAINABLE RURAL LI CUNNINGHAM A, 2005, CARVING OUT FUTURE F DAGAR JC, 2001, LAND DEGRAD DEV, V12, P107 DHYANI SK, 1998, AGROFOREST SYST, V44, P1 DROPPELMANN K, 2003, J ARID ENVIRON, V54, P571 DUNIN FX, 2002, AGR WATER MANAGE, V53, P259 DWIVEDI MK, 2001, AGR MARKET, V44, P12 ELLIS F, 2000, RURAL LIVELIHOODS ID GRIFFITH DM, 2000, CONSERV BIOL, V14, P325 GUPTA GN, 1998, AGROFOREST SYST, V40, P149 JAISWAL AK, 2002, NEW AGR, V13, P13 KAUR B, 2000, APPL SOIL ECOL, V15, P283 KAUR B, 2002, AGROFOREST SYST, V54, P21 KOHLI A, 2003, AGROFOREST SYST, V58, P109 KUMAR A, 1998, ANN ARID ZONE, V37, P153 KUMAR A, 2004, PSYCHIAT RES-NEUROIM, V130, P131 KUMAR BM, 2001, AGROFOREST SYST, V52, P133 KUMAR SS, 1999, AGROFOREST SYST, V46, P131 LEHMANN J, 1998, FOREST ECOL MANAG, V111, P157 LOVENSTEIN HM, 1991, FOREST ECOL MANAG, V45, P59 MAHAPATRA AK, 1999, BIOMASS BIOENERG, V17, P291 MAIKHURI RK, 2000, AGROFOREST SYST, V48, P257 MAKUNDI WR, 2004, ENV DEV SUSTAINABILI, V6, P235 MANNA MC, 2003, J SUSTAIN AGR, V21, P87 MAXTED N, 2002, GENET RESOUR CROP EV, V49, P31 MILNE G, 2006, UNLOCKING OPPORTUNIT MINJ AV, 2000, INDIAN FOR, V126, P788 MONTAGNINI F, 2004, AGROFOREST SYST, V61, P281 MYERS N, 1999, CURR SCI INDIA, V76, P507 NARAIN P, 1997, AGROFOREST SYST, V39, P175 NOBLE IR, 1997, SCIENCE, V277, P522 OSMAN M, 1998, AGROFOREST SYST, V42, P91 PANDEY CB, 2000, AGROFOREST SYST, V49, P53 PANDEY CB, 2003, AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON, V96, P133 PANDEY DN, 1993, J BOMBAY NAT HIST S, V90, P58 PANDEY DN, 1996, VANISHING WOODS PART, P222 PANDEY DN, 1998, ETHNOFORESTRY LOCAL PANDEY DN, 2001, SCIENCE, V293, P1763 PANDEY DN, 2002, CLIM POLICY, V2, P367 PANDEY DN, 2002, CURR SCI INDIA, V83, P593 PANDEY DN, 2003, CURR SCI INDIA, V85, P46 PANDEY N, 2005, SOC ADAPTATION ABRUT PATEL LB, 1996, BIOL FERT SOILS, V21, P149 PRASAD R, 2000, TREES OUTSIDE FOREST PURI S, 1995, J ARID ENVIRON, V30, P441 PURI S, 2001, AGROFOREST SYST, V51, P57 PURI S, 2004, AGROFOREST SYST, V61, P437 QULI SMS, 2001, INDIAN FOR, V127, P1251 RAI SN, 2001, INDIAN FOREST, V127, P263 RAJVANSHI AK, 2002, CURR SCI INDIA, V82, P632 RASMUSSEN PE, 1998, SCIENCE, V282, P893 RAVINDRANATH NH, 1995, BIOMASS ENERGY ENV D, P376 SATHAYE JA, 1998, ANNU REV ENERG ENV, V23, P387 SAYER JA, 2004, SCI SUSTAINABLE DEV, P268 SEMWAL RL, 2003, BIOMASS BIOENERG, V24, P3 SHARMA G, 2002, ANN BOT-LONDON, V89, P273 SHARMA R, 1996, AGROFOREST SYST, V35, P239 SHARMA R, 1996, AGROFOREST SYST, V35, P255 SHASTRI CM, 2002, CURR SCI INDIA, V82, P1080 SINGH B, 1998, PLANT SOIL, V203, P15 SINGH MP, 1994, J PALYNOL, V30, P157 SUNDRIYAL M, 2001, ECON BOT, V55, P377 SWAMINATHAN C, 2001, BIOL AGRIC HORTIC, V18, P259 THIES C, 1999, SCIENCE, V285, P893 TURNER NC, 2002, AGR WATER MANAGE, V53, P271 UNNI NVM, 2000, INT J REMOTE SENS, V21, P3269 VISWANATH S, 2000, AGROFOREST SYST, V50, P157 WALSH MJ, 1999, SCI TOTAL ENVIRON, V240, P145 NR 80 TC 0 J9 CURR SCI BP 455 EP 463 PY 2007 PD FEB 25 VL 92 IS 4 GA 144CT UT ISI:000244773700020 ER PT J AU Gerbens-Leenes, PW Nonhebel, S TI Critical water requirements for food, methodology and policy consequences for food security SO FOOD POLICY LA English DT Article C1 Univ Groningen, IVEM, NL-9747 AG Groningen, Netherlands. RP Gerbens-Leenes, PW, Univ Groningen, IVEM, Nijenborg 4, NL-9747 AG Groningen, Netherlands. AB Food security and increasing water scarcity have a dominant place on the food policy agenda. Food security requires sufficient water of adequate quality because water is a prerequisite for plant growth. Nowadays, agriculture accounts for 70% of the worldwide human fresh water use. The expected increase of global food demand requires a great deal of effort to supply sufficient fresh water. If a doubling of agricultural production goes along with a doubling of the use of water, current fresh water resources are probably not sufficient in the long run. The objective of this study is to develop a generally applicable method for the assessment of crop growth-related water flows or "transpirational water" requirements of agricultural crops. Traditionally, agricultural studies have made assessments of water requirements for specific situations to provide a yield. This study uses the agricultural information the other way around. Water had to be present for a growth to occur. Based on the strong linearity of processes taking place in all green plants, the study develops a method to calculate the growth-related factor of crop water requirements, assesses the impact of crop characteristics on water requirements, and evaluates options to reduce the use of water by changing food consumption patterns. The study calculates "transpirational water" requirements for a representative group of crops with different functions for human nutrition, such as staple CR *CENTR VEEV, 1997, VOED LANDB VOED VEEV *FAO, 1999, FAO STAT SER, V156 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 *KNMI CHO, 1988, VAN PENM NAAR MAKK N *NED VOED, 1973, VOORL VOED *UN POP DIV, 2002, WORLD POP PROSP 2002 ARKEBAUER TJ, 1994, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V68, P221 BREEDVELD BC, 1998, VOEDINGSCENTRUM, P39 BRUINSMA J, 2003, WORLD AGR 2015 2030 BUSIHAND TA, 1980, NEERSLAG VERDAMPING CATSBERG CME, 1997, LEVENSMIDDELENLEER DEVRIES FWT, 1983, ENCY PLANT PHYSL N D, V12 DEVRIES FWT, 1995, ECOREGIONAL APPROACH DEWIT CT, 1958, TRANSPIRATION CROP Y FALKENMARK M, 1989, FOOD NATURAL RESOURC, P164 FALKENMARK M, 1997, LAND RESOURCES EDGE, P929 GOUDRIAAN J, SIMULATION PLANT GRO, P98 GOUDRIAAN J, 2001, TERRESTRIAL GLOBAL P, P301 HABEKOTTE B, 1996, WINTER OILSEED RAPE HABEKOTTE B, 1997, EUR J AGRON, V7, P315 IVENS WPF, 1992, WORLD FOOD PRODUCTIO LECOEUR J, 2001, EUR J AGRON, V14, P173 LEHNER B, KASSEL WORLD WATER S, V5, P34109 MONTEITH JL, 1977, EXPL AGR, V14, P1 MONTEITH JL, 1977, PHILOS T ROY SOC B, V281, P277 MONTEITH JL, 1994, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V68, P213 PIMENTEL D, 1997, BIOSCIENCE, V47, P97 PINSTRUPANDERSEN P, 2000, FOOD POLICY, V25, P125 PUTTIN JJ, 1995, EENVOUDIG VOEDZAAM RENAULT D, 1999, AGR WATER MANAGE, V45, P275 ROCKSTROM J, 1999, PHYS CHEM EARTH PT B, V24, P375 ROSEGRANT MW, 1998, WATER POLICY, V1, P567 SCHULZE RE, 2000, AMBIO, V29, P12 SIBMA L, 1968, NETH J AGR RES, V16, P211 SMITH M, 1991, REPORT EXPERT CONSUL SMITH M, 1992, 46 FAO TILMAN D, 2002, NATURE, V418, P671 VERKERK G, 1986, BINAS INFORMATIEBOEK WALLACE JS, 2000, AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON, V82, P105 WOODWARD J, 1916, PHILOS T ROYAL SOC ZHANG HP, 1998, PLANT SOIL, V201, P295 NR 41 TC 0 J9 FOOD POLICY BP 547 EP 564 PY 2004 PD OCT VL 29 IS 5 GA 878HS UT ISI:000225638100005 ER PT J AU Haw, M Cocklin, C Mercer, D TI A pinch of salt: landowner perception and adjustment to the salinity hazard in Victoria, Australia SO JOURNAL OF RURAL STUDIES LA English DT Review C1 Monash Univ, Sch Geog & Environm Sci, Melbourne, Vic 3168, Australia. RP Cocklin, C, Monash Univ, Sch Geog & Environm Sci, Melbourne, Vic 3168, Australia. AB Land degradation is one of the most critical environmental issues facing many countries today. The need to maintain productive agriculture has fuelled interest in finding more appropriate policy and management responses to environmental change, including the various forms of land degradation. While the processes resulting in degraded land are often natural phenomena, the term "land degradation" is used in this paper to refer to their anthropogenic acceleration and the consequent impacts on agricultural potential. Forms of land degradation include salinity, erosion, chemical contamination and changes in soil structure. The research reported here is concerned specifically with irrigation-induced soil salinity in Victoria, Australia. The paper is based on the hazards research paradigm developed within the social sciences. We use this paradigm to inform our inquiry into perceptions of, and responses to, the salinity hazard in a region of the state of Victoria known as the Tragowel Plains. Our investigation, based on questionnaire surveys and farm case studies, reveals a relatively high level of awareness of the salinity hazard. Adjustments to the hazard include changes in both land management and in land use. As the extent of such hazards increases it is imperative that research continues with a view to better understanding these human-environment relations in the context of specific environments. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. 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NR 0 TC 0 J9 J ENVIRON LAW BP 209 EP 228 PY 1991 VL 3 IS 2 GA GR901 UT ISI:A1991GR90100002 ER PT J AU Cerri, CEP Sparovek, G Bernoux, M Easterling, WE Melillo, JM Cerri, CC TI Tropical agriculture and global warming: Impacts and mitigation options SO SCIENTIA AGRICOLA LA English DT Review C1 USP, ESALQ, Dept Ciencia Solo, BR-13418900 Piracicaba, SP, Brazil. IRD, F-34394 Montpellier, France. Penn State Univ, Penn State Inst Environm, University Pk, PA 16802 USA. Marine Biol Lab, Ctr Ecosyst, Woods Hole, MA 02543 USA. USP, CENA, Lab Biogeoquim Ambiental, BR-13400970 Piracicaba, SP, Brazil. RP Cerri, CEP, USP, ESALQ, Dept Ciencia Solo, CP 09, BR-13418900 Piracicaba, SP, Brazil. AB The intensive land use invariably has several negative effects on the environment and crop production if conservative practices are not adopted. Reduction in soil organic matter (SOM) quantity means gas emission (mainly CO2, CH4, N2O) to the atmosphere and increased global warming. Soil sustainability is also affected, since remaining SOM quality changes. Alterations can be verified, for example, by soil desegregation and changes in structure. The consequences are erosion, reduction in nutrient availability for the plants and lower water retention capacity. These and other factors reflect negatively on crop productivity and sustainability of the soil -plant-atmosphere system. Conversely, adoption of "best management practices", such as conservation tillage, can partly reverse the process - they are aimed at increasing the input of organic matter to the soil and/or decreasing the rates at which soil organic matter decomposes. 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AGR 2 F, P286 SILVA AL, 2006, SCI AGR, V63, P105 SILVA GMA, 1997, SECAPI, V1, P55 SIMOES MD, 2005, SCI AGR, V62, P199 SIQUEIRA OJF, 1994, REV BRASILEIRA AGROM, V2, P115 SIQUEIRA OJF, 2001, MUDANCAS CLIMATICAS, V1, P33 SISTI CPJ, 2004, SOIL TILL RES, V76, P39 SIVAKUMAR MVK, 2005, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V70, P31 SIX J, 1999, SOIL SCI SOC AM J, V63, P1350 SIX J, 2002, AGRONOMIE, V22, P755 SMITH P, 1998, GLOB CHANGE BIOL, V4, P679 SOARES JLN, 2005, SCI AGR, V62, P165 SPAGNOLLO E, 1999, ENC BRAS SUBST HUM 3, P229 TESTA VM, 1992, REV BRASILEIRA CIENC, V16, P107 THORBURN PJ, 2001, FIELD CROP RES, V70, P223 TRUMBORE SE, 1995, GLOBAL BIOGEOCHEM CY, V9, P515 VASCONCELLOS CA, 1998, PESQUI AGROPECU BRAS, V33, P1897 VENZKE SP, 2002, FERTIBIO 2002 ZOTARELLI L, 2003, C BRAS CIENC SOL RIB NR 116 TC 0 J9 SCI AGRIC BP 83 EP 99 PY 2007 PD JAN-FEB VL 64 IS 1 GA 143PX UT ISI:000244736100013 ER PT J AU Metni, M El-Fadel, M Sadek, S Kayal, R El Khoury, DL TI Groundwater resources in Lebanon: A vulnerability assessment SO INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF WATER RESOURCES DEVELOPMENT LA English DT Article C1 Amer Univ Beirut, Water Resources Ctr, Beirut, Lebanon. RP El-Fadel, M, Amer Univ Beirut, Water Resources Ctr, Bliss St,POB 11-0236, Beirut, Lebanon. AB This paper presents a regional groundwater vulnerability assessment for Lebanon using the DRASTIC model coupled with a GIS-based framework to prioritize protection efforts, whereby the most vulnerable areas to groundwater are targeted first, thus optimizing the allocation of financial and human resources. The objective of the study is to initiate a systematic approach to better manage and protect the country's groundwater resources. CR *EUR COOP FIELD SC, 2000, COST ACT 620 MID TER *LEB ARM, 1962, COUNTR TOP MAP *TUB, 1999, GROUNDW VULN PROJ PA *UNDP, 1970, LIB ET DES EAUX SOUT ALLER L, 1987, DRASTIC STANDARDIZED DARWISH TM, 2000, EXPERT GROUP M IMPLI DOERFLIGER N, 1998, PRACTICAL GUIDE GROU DOERFLIGER N, 1999, ENVIRON GEOL, V39, P165 DUBERTRET L, 1955, CARTE GEOLOGIQUE LIB ELFADEL M, 2000, WATER RES DEV, V16, P615 ELFADEL M, 2000, WATER RESOURCES MANA ELFADEL M, 2001, WATER POLICY, V3, P425 FREEZE A, 1979, GROUNDWATER GEZE B, 1956, CARTE RECONNAISSANCE MARTIN N, 2000, P EXP GROUP M IMPL G METNI M, 2002, THESIS DEP CIVIL ENV PATHAN M, 1977, THESIS AM U BEIRUT L PELTEKIAN A, 1980, THESIS AM U BERIUT L NR 18 TC 0 J9 INT J WATER RESOUR DEV BP 475 EP 491 PY 2004 PD DEC VL 20 IS 4 GA 881VI UT ISI:000225897100001 ER PT J AU Hay, SI Cox, J Rogers, DJ Randolph, SE Stern, DI Shanks, GD Myers, MF Snow, RW TI Climate change and the resurgence of malaria in the East African highlands SO NATURE LA English DT Article C1 Univ Oxford, Dept Zool, TALA Res Grp, Oxford OX1 3PS, England. Kenya Med Res Inst Wellcome Trust Collaborat Prog, Nairobi, Kenya. Univ London London Sch Hyg & Trop Med, Dept Infect & Trop Dis, London WC1E 7HT, England. Univ Oxford, Dept Zool, Oxford Tick Res Grp, Oxford OX1 3PS, England. Australian Natl Univ, Ctr Resource & Environm Studies, Canberra, ACT 0200, Australia. USA, Med Res Unit Kenya, Nairobi, Kenya. Decis Syst Technol Inc, Rockville, MD 20850 USA. Univ Oxford, John Radcliffe Hosp, Ctr Trop Med, Oxford OX3 9DU, England. RP Hay, SI, Univ Oxford, Dept Zool, TALA Res Grp, S Parks Rd, Oxford OX1 3PS, England. AB The public health and economic consequences of Plasmodium falciparum malaria are once again regarded as priorities for global development. There has been much speculation on whether anthropogenic climate change is exacerbating the malaria problem, especially in areas of high altitude where P. falciparum transmission is limited by low temperature(1-4). The International Panel on Climate Change has concluded that there is likely to be a net extension in the distribution of malaria and an increase in incidence within this range(5). We investigated long-term meteorological trends in four high-altitude sites in East Africa, where increases in malaria have been reported in the past two decades. Here we show that temperature, rainfall, vapour pressure and the number of months suitable for P. falciparum transmission have not changed significantly during the past century or during the period of reported malaria resurgence. A high degree of temporal and spatial variation in the climate of East Africa suggests further that claimed associations between local malaria resurgences and regional changes in climate are overly simplistic. CR *NAT RES COUNC, 2001, WEATH CLIM EC INF DI BODKER R, 2000, GLOBAL CHANGE HUMAN, V1, P134 BOX GEP, 1970, J AM STAT ASSOC, V65, P1509 DICKEY DA, 1979, J AM STAT ASSOC, V74, P427 DICKEY DA, 1981, ECONOMETRICA, V49, P1057 DIXON S, 1950, E AFR MED J, V27, P10 EPSTEIN PR, 1998, B AM METEOROL SOC, V79, P409 GARNHAM PCC, 1948, J NATL MALAR SOC, V7, P275 GRANGER CWJ, 1974, J ECONOMETRICS, V2, P111 HAY SI, 2000, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V97, P9335 HOUGHTON JT, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 KILIAN AHD, 1999, T ROY SOC TROP MED H, V93, P22 KINGUYU SM, 2000, J CLIMATE, V13, P2876 LINDBLADE KA, 1999, T ROY SOC TROP MED H, V93, P480 LOEVINSOHN ME, 1994, LANCET, V343, P714 MARIMBU J, 1993, B SOC PATHOL EXOT, V86, P399 MARTENS P, 1999, AM SCI, V87, P534 MATOLA YG, 1987, J TROP MED HYG, V90, P127 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 MCMICHAEL AJ, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE HUMAN MOUCHET J, 1997, B SOC PATHOL EXOT, V90, P162 MOUCHET J, 1998, J AM MOSQUITO CONTR, V14, P121 NEW M, 1999, J CLIMATE, V12, P829 NEW M, 2000, J CLIMATE, V13, P2217 REITER P, 2001, ENVIRON HEALTH PE S1, V109, P141 SHANKS GD, 2000, T ROY SOC TROP MED H, V94, P253 STERN DI, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V47, P411 NR 27 TC 49 J9 NATURE BP 905 EP 909 PY 2002 PD FEB 21 VL 415 IS 6874 GA 523EL UT ISI:000173941000044 ER PT J AU Harlan, SL Brazel, AJ Prashad, L Stefanov, WL Larsen, L TI Neighborhood microclimates and vulnerability to heat stress SO SOCIAL SCIENCE & MEDICINE LA English DT Article C1 Arizona State Univ, Tempe, AZ 85287 USA. NASA, Lyndon B Johnson Space Ctr, Image Sci & Anal Lab, Houston, TX 77058 USA. Univ Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109 USA. RP Harlan, SL, Arizona State Univ, Tempe, AZ 85287 USA. AB Human exposure to excessively warm weather, especially in cities, is an increasingly important public health problem. This study examined heat-related health inequalities within one city in order to understand the relationships between the microclimates of urban neighborhoods, population characteristics, thermal environments that regulate microclimates, and the resources people possess to cope with climatic conditions. A simulation model was used to estimate an outdoor human thermal comfort index (HTCI) as a function of local climate variables collected in 8 diverse city neighborhoods during the summer of 2003 in Phoenix, USA. HTCI is an indicator of heat stress, a condition that can cause illness and death. There were statistically significant differences in temperatures and HTCI between the neighborhoods during the entire summer, which increased during a heat wave period. Lower socioeconomic and ethnic minority groups were more likely to live in warmer neighborhoods with greater exposure to heat stress. High settlement density, sparse vegetation, and having no open space in the neighborhood were significantly correlated with higher temperatures and HTCI. People in warmer neighborhoods were more vulnerable to heat exposure because they had fewer social and material resources to cope with extreme heat. Urban heat island reduction policies should specifically target vulnerable residential areas and take into account equitable distribution and preservation of environmental resources. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *AM FOR, 2005, TREES ECOSY SERV *CBCF, 2004, AFR AM CLIM CLIM CHA *CDC, 2004, EXYR HEAT *CDC, 2005, MMWR-MORBID MORTAL W, V54, P628 *CIT PHOEN PLANN D, 2004, ENV PLANN EL *ICLEI, 1998, CIT RISK ASS VULN US *IFRC, 2003, IND HEAT WAV INF B *NOAA, 2003, PREL CLIM DAT *NOAA, 2005, HEAT WAV MAJ SUMM KI *NY CLIM HLTH PROJ, 2004, ASS POT PUBL HLTH AI BASU R, 2002, ENVIRON HEALTH PERSP, V110, P1219 BOLIN B, 2002, ENVIRON PLANN A, V34, P317 BRAZEL A, 2000, CLIM RES, V25, P49 BROWN P, 2003, SOC SCI MED, V57, P453 BROWN RD, 1995, MICROCLIMATIC LANDSC CARLSON TN, 2000, GLOBAL PLANET CHANGE, V25, P49 CORBURN J, 2006, HEALTH PLACE, V12, P167 CUMMINS S, 2005, HEALTH PLACE, V11, P249 CURRIERO FC, 2002, AM J EPIDEMIOL, V155, P80 CUTTER SL, 2003, SOC SCI QUART, V84, P242 DAVIS M, 1997, CAPITALISM NATURE SO, V8, P35 DAVIS RE, 2003, ENVIRON HEALTH PERSP, V111, P1712 EASTERLING DR, 2000, SCIENCE, V289, P2068 GOLDEN JS, 2004, ENV SCI, V1, P321 GRINESKI SE, 2006, THESIS ARIZONA STATE GROSSMANCLARKE S, 2005, J APPL METEOROL, V44, P1281 HARTZ DA, 2006, INT J BIOMETEOROL, V51, P73 HEISLER GM, 2002, 4 S URB ENV 20 24 MA, P70 HOPE D, 2003, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V100, P8788 HUETE AR, 1988, REMOTE SENS ENVIRON, V25, P295 JENERETTE GD, IN PRESS LANDSCAPE E KALKSTEIN LS, 1989, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V79, P44 KALKSTEIN LS, 1997, ENVIRON HEALTH PERSP, V105, P84 KALKSTEIN LS, 2004, UNPUB DEV EVAPORATIV KARL TR, 1988, J CLIMATE, V1, P1099 KILBOURNE EM, 2002, AM J PREV MED, V22, P328 KLINENBERG E, 2002, HEAT WAVE SOCIAL AUT KNOWLESYANEZ K, 1999, HISTORIC LAND USE PH, V1 LARSEN J, 2003, RECORD HEAT WAVE EUR LARSEN L, 2004, J PLAN EDUC RES, V24, P64 MACINTYRE S, 2002, SOC SCI MED, V55, P125 MCGEEHIN MA, 2001, ENVIRON HEALTH PE S2, V109, P185 MEEHL GA, 2004, SCIENCE, V305, P994 OKE TR, 1987, BOUNDARY LAYER CLIMA OKE TR, 1997, APPL CLIMATOLOGY, P273 ONEILL MS, 2003, AM J EPIDEMIOL, V157, P1074 PARKER DS, 1998, 1998 ASHRAE ANN M TO PATZ JA, 2005, NATURE, V438, P310 PELLOW DN, 2000, AM BEHAV SCI, V43, P581 PELLOW DN, 2002, GARBAGE WARS STRUGGL REAGAN JA, 1979, ENERG BUILDINGS, V2, P237 ROGOT E, 1992, AM J EPIDEMIOL, V136, P106 ROSENFELD AH, 1995, ENERG BUILDINGS, V22, P255 ROSENFELD AH, 1998, ENERG BUILDINGS, V28, P51 SAMPSON RJ, 1999, URBAN PROBLEMS COMM SEMENZA JC, 1996, NEW ENGL J MED, V335, P84 SEMENZA JC, 1999, AM J PREV MED, V16, P269 SHERIDAN SC, 2004, B AM METEOROL SOC, V85, P1931 SMOYER KE, 1998, SOC SCI MED, V47, P1809 SMOYER KE, 2000, INT J BIOMETEOROL, V44, P190 STEADMAN RG, 1984, J CLIM APPL METEOROL, V23, P1674 STEFANOV WL, 2004, INT ARCH PHOTOGRAMME, V35, P1339 TAHA H, 1997, ENERG BUILDINGS, V25, P99 TASHAKKORI A, 1998, MIXED METHODOLOGY CO VOOGT JA, 2002, ENCY GLOBAL ENV CHAN, V3, P60 WATTS JD, 2004, J APPL METEOROL, V43, P503 WISNER B, 2004, AT RISK NR 67 TC 0 J9 SOC SCI MED BP 2847 EP 2863 PY 2006 PD DEC VL 63 IS 11 GA 112HG UT ISI:000242515900009 ER PT J AU Kok, K TI The role of population in understanding Honduran land use patterns SO JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article C1 Lab Soil Sci & Geol, NL-6700 AA Wageningen, Netherlands. RP Kok, K, Lab Soil Sci & Geol, POB 37, NL-6700 AA Wageningen, Netherlands. AB Land use patterns are usually influenced by large variety of factors that act over a broad range of scales. Biophysical, climatic, and socioeconomic factors are important and need to be considered, when distribution of land use is to be understood. The main objective of this study is to test this hypothesis using a statistical analysis at 'supra-local' level. Regression analysis is used to describe land use patterns in Honduras, selected because of its rare combination in Latin America of high population growth and poor biophysical conditions. Furthermore, the aim of the analysis is to specifically highlight two aspects, the effect of spatial and temporal scale and the influence of population density: to determine the influence of spatial and temporal scale, six spatial resolutions at two points in time (1974 and 1993) were included. To determine the role of population density and population growth, this factor was singled out; an analysis of migration patterns was performed; and a measure for technological development was calculated. Multiple regression equations indicate the importance of soil-related, climatic and demographic factors for most of the land uses. Relations appear to be stable in space and time. Rural population density dominates as driver over the whole range of resolutions and for both years, especially for maize where it explains up to 80% of the variation. The strong constant relationship between population and agricultural area could be caused by a lack of technological development. An analysis of yield development confirms that for most annual crops yield increases lag behind area growth. Besides, the strong correlation could be explained by assuming rural population density to be a proxy for a range of other factors, like labour costs, or accessibility that are the direct drivers of land use change. In any case, this study suggests that for a specific-relatively coarse-window of temporal and spatial scale, land use patterns can be described with very simple relationships, with a strong contribution of population density. More local studies are needed to test the hypothesis that rural population density is a proxy for other variables. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 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Meteo France, Ctr Natl Rech Meteorol, F-94736 Nogent Sur Marne, France. RP Hallegatte, S, Ctr Int Rech Environm & Dev, 45bis Av de la Belle Gabrielle, F-94736 Nogent Sur Marne, France. AB This paper is based on the perception that the inertia of climate and socio-economic systems are key parameters in the climate change issue. In a first part, it develops and implements a new approach based on a simple integrated model with a particular focus on an innovative transient impact and adaptation modeling. In a second part, a climate-economy feedback is defined and characterized. The following results were found. 1) It has a long characteristic time, which lies between 50 and 100 years depending on the hypotheses; this time scale is long when compared to the system's other time scales, and the feedback cannot act as a natural damping process of climate change. 2) Mitigation has to be anticipated since the feedback of an emission reduction on the economy can be significant only after a 20-year delay and is really efficient only after at least 50 years. 3) Even discounted, production changes due to an action on emissions are significant over more than one century. 4) The methodology of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which neglects the feedback from impacts to emissions, is acceptable up to 2100, whatever is the level of impacts. This analysis allows also to define a climatic cost of growth as the additional climate change damages due to the additional emissions linked to economic growth. CR AMBROSI P, 2003, ENVIRON MODEL ASSESS, V8, P133 BODE H, 1945, NETWORK ANAL FEEDBAC CHERKAOUI M, 1996, J HEAT TRANS-T ASME, V118, P401 CLINE W, 1992, EC GLOBAL WARMING COX PM, 2000, NATURE, V408, P184 FANKHAUSER S, 1999, ECOL ECON, V30, P67 FANKHAUSER S, 2005, RESOUR ENERGY ECON, V27, P1 FRIEDLINGSTEIN P, 2003, TELLUS B, V55, P692 GALLUP J, 1999, 1 CID HARV GREEN JSA, 1967, Q J ROY METEOR SOC, V93, P371 HALLEGATTE S, 2005, UNPUB J ATMOS SCI HAURIE A, 2002, TURNPIKE MULTIDISCOU, P4 HOUGHTON JT, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 LIU JWH, 1992, SIAM REV, V34, P82 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 MENDELSOHN R, 1999, IMPACT CLIMATE CHANG NAKICENOVIC N, 2000, SPECIAL REPORT EMISS NORDHAUS W, 1994, MANAGING GLOBAL COMM NORDHAUS WD, 1991, ECON J, V101, P920 SOLOW RM, 1956, Q J ECON, V70, P65 TOL RSJ, 1996, ECOL ECON, V19, P67 TOL RSJ, 2002, ENVIRON RESOUR ECON, V21, P135 TOL RSJ, 2002, ENVIRON RESOUR ECON, V21, P47 NR 23 TC 0 J9 ENVIRON MODEL ASSESS BP 277 EP 289 PY 2005 PD DEC VL 10 IS 4 GA 988XH UT ISI:000233634400001 ER PT J AU Zacharias, MA Gregr, EJ TI Sensitivity and vulnerability in marine environments: an approach to identifying vulnerable marine areas SO CONSERVATION BIOLOGY LA English DT Article C1 Calif State Univ Channel Isl, Environm Sci & Resource Management Program, Camarillo, CA 93012 USA. SciTech Consulting, Vancouver, BC V5N 1G8, Canada. RP Zacharias, MA, Calif State Univ Channel Isl, Environm Sci & Resource Management Program, 1 Univ Dr, Camarillo, CA 93012 USA. AB Marine environments have suffered from a lack of quantitative methods for delineating areas that are sensitive or vulnerable to particular stresses, natural and anthropogenic. We define sensitivity as the degree to which marine features respond to stresses, which are deviations of environmental conditions beyond the expected range. Vulnerability can then be defined as the probability that a feature will be exposed to a stress to which it is sensitive. Using these definitions, we provide a quantitative methodology for identifying vulnerable marine areas based on valued ecological features, defined as biological or physical features, processes, or structures deemed by humans to have environmental, social, cultural, or economic significance. The vulnerability of the valued ecological features is a function of their sensitivity to particular stresses and their vulnerability to those stresses. We used the methodology to demonstrate how vulnerable marine areas for two groups of endangered whale species (inshore and offshore) could be identified with a predictive habitat model and acoustic stress surfaces. Acoustic stress surfaces were produced for ferry traffic, commercial shipping traffic, potential offshore oil production, and small-boat traffic. The vulnerabilities of the two whale groups to the four stressors considered in this example were relatively similar; however, inshore species were more sensitive to on-shelf, coastal activities such as offshore hydrocarbon production, ferry traffic, and small-boat traffic. Our approach demonstrates how valued features can be associated with stresses and the likelihood of encountering these stresses (vulnerability) in order to identify geographic areas for management and conservation purposes. The method can be applied to any combination of valued ecological features and stressors. CR *ENV AUSTR, 2001, GUID APPL ENV PROT B *IPIECA, 1996, SENS MAPP OIL SPILL *LGL CONS, 1998, ENV ASS SEISM EXPL S *LGL CONS, 2000, ENV ASS EXPL DRILL N *NAT RES COUNC, 2003, OC NOIS MAR MAMM *NOAA, 1996, 115 NOAA NOS ORCA ALLEE RJ, 2000, NMFSFSPO43 NAT OC AT COWARDIN LM, 1979, FWSOBS7931 US FISH W DALE NG, 1997, OVERVIEW KEY CONSERV DIAS PC, 1996, TRENDS ECOL EVOL, V11, P326 DUTRIEUX E, 2000, GUIDE METHODOLOGIQUE EMMETT B, 2001, FRAMEWORK IDENTIFYIN GJERDE KM, 2002, SEA TECHNOL, V43, P40 GOLLEY FB, 1993, HIST ECOSYSTEM CONCE GORDON J, 1996, CONSERVATION WHALES, P281 GORDON J, 1998, P SEISM MAR MAMM WOR GREGR EJ, 2001, CAN J FISH AQUAT SCI, V58, P1265 GUNDLACH ER, 1978, MAR TECHNOL SOC J, V12, P18 HOLLING CS, 1986, SUSTAINABLE DEV BIOS, V1, P1 HOLT TJ, 1995, 65 MAES Y FFYNN HOWES DE, 1994, BRIT COLUMBIA PHYS S JOHNSON D, 2001, WADDEN SEA NEWSLETTE, V3, P9 LUSSEAU D, 2003, CONSERV BIOL, V17, P1785 MCCAULEY RD, 1998, AUSTR PETROLEUM PROD, V38, P692 MCDONALD MA, 1995, J ACOUST SOC AM, V98, P712 MICHEL J, 1978, ENVIRON GEOL, V2, P107 MOORE SE, 2002, J CETACEAN RESOURCE, V4, P19 NICHOL LM, 2002, 2371 FISH AQ SCI RICHARDSON WJ, 1995, MARINE MAMMALS NOISE ROFF JC, 2000, AQUAT CONSERV, V10, P209 SCHICK RS, 2000, CAN J FISH AQUAT SCI, V57, P2193 SHERMAN K, 1991, ECOL APPL, V1, P349 TYLERWALTERS H, 1999, 4 MARLIN MAR BIOL AS URICK RJ, 1983, PRINCIPLES UNDERWATE VANBERNEM KH, 2000, WAT STUD SER, V8, P229 WENZ GM, 1962, J ACOUST SO, V34, P1936 WILLIAMS R, 2002, J CETACEAN RES MANAG, V4, P305 ZACHARIAS MA, 1998, COAST MANAGE, V26, P105 ZACHARIAS MA, 1998, NAT AREA J, V18, P4 NR 39 TC 1 J9 CONSERV BIOL BP 86 EP 97 PY 2005 PD FEB VL 19 IS 1 GA 889JF UT ISI:000226438600015 ER PT J AU Dibben, C Chester, DK TI Human vulnerability in volcanic environments: the case of Furnas, Sao Miguel, Azores SO JOURNAL OF VOLCANOLOGY AND GEOTHERMAL RESEARCH LA English DT Article C1 Univ Luton, Ctr Volcan Studies, Luton LU1 3JU, Beds, England. Univ Liverpool, Dept Geog, Liverpool L69 3BX, Merseyside, England. RP Dibben, C, Univ Oxford, Dept Appl Social Studies & Social Res, Barnett House,Wellington Sq, Oxford OX1 2ER, England. AB The need to examine the vulnerability of people to natural hazards, in addition to the long-established requirement to study extreme events of nature, is being increasingly recognised within disaster research. Following a discussion of the nature of human vulnerability, we propose a framework for its analysis within the context of volcanic activity and we exemplify our approach by a detailed study of Furnas, a village located at the centre of a volcano with the same name on the island of Sao Miguel in the Azores. The methods used included in-depth interviews with permanent residents (n = 50), analysis of census records and an examination of the socio-economic history of the town. The vulnerability of an individual to volcanic hazards involves a complex interaction of elements which, in addition to the usual factors taken into account in programmes of hazard reduction (e.g., the nature of the physical threat, location and economic situation), also comprises his or her social context and a number of physiological and psychological considerations. It is argued, further, that both generally and in the case of Furnas, the root causes of vulnerability lie in the history and development of society. Individual decision making is fundamental but takes place within and cannot be separated from this social context. Vulnerability analysis allows the identification of points where intervention may be successful in reducing the likelihood of suffering in a society. It avoids the problem of people's unexpected reactions to invention leading to a changing or even increasing level of vulnerability, by studying society rather than just one aspect of volcanic hazard in isolation. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. CR 1993, HIST FURNAS RONCOS V, V9, P4 *BULL BULL, 1841, WINT AZ SUMM BATH FU *I AC CULT, 1983, PROBL REC SISM JAN 1 *SREA, 1988, AN EST 1986 7 AC *SREA, 1991, INQ AOES ORC FAM IOF *SREA, 1993, 13 REC POP 3 REC GER *UNDRO, 1991, MIT NAT DIS PHEN EFF ALMEIDA N, 1990, FURNAS PRESENTS FURN ANDERSON M, 1989, RISING ASHES DEV STR BARAKAT S, 1995, J REFUGEE STUDIES, V8, P418 BAUBRON JC, 1994, BRGM BAXTER PJ, 1994, CASE STUDIES HLTH AS BAXTER PJ, 1994, INT WORKSH EUR VOLC BAXTER PJ, 1999, J VOLCANOL GEOTH RES, V92, P95 BENTO CM, 1994, HIST AZORES BLAIKIE PM, 1987, LAND DEGRADATION SOC BLAIKIE PM, 1994, RISK NATURAL HAZARDS, V1, P1 BLAIR J, 1964, HOME TRISTAN CUNHA, V125, P60 BOORSE C, 1975, PHILOS PUBLIC AFFAIR, V5 BOOTH B, 1978, PHILOS T ROY SOC A, V288, P271 BROWN BB, 1992, PLACE ATTACHMENT, P279 CANNON T, 1994, DISASTERS DEV ENV, P13 CHAMBERS R, 1983, RURAL DEV PUTTING LA CHAPIN FW, 1989, TIDES MIGRATION STUD CHESTER DK, 1995, REPORT EVACUATION FU COCHRANE T, 1987, W FOLKLORE, V46, P1 COLE PD, 1995, J VOLCANOL GEOTH RES, V69, P117 COLE PD, 1999, J VOLCANOL GEOTH RES, V92, P39 CRUZ JV, 1999, J VOLCANOL GEOTH RES, V92, P151 DAVIS I, 1978, SHELTER DISASTER DAVIS I, 1995, WORKSH LOND 31 MAR C DIAS UM, 1936, HIST VALE FURNAS DIBBEN C, 1997, EXTR NAT HAZ WORKSH DONALD I, 1990, FIRES HUMAN BEHAV, P15 DOYAL L, 1991, THEORY HUMAN NEED DRABEK TE, 1969, SOC PROBL, V16, P336 DRABEK TE, 1986, HUMAN SYSTEMS RESPON ELLIS SJ, 1996, THESIS U LUTON FERREIRA T, 1995, 4 C NAC GEOL PORT PO FESTINGER L, 1957, THEORY COGNITIVE DIS FRIED M, 1963, URBAN CONDITION, P151 GASPAR JL, 1995, RISCOS SAUDE PUBLICA GUEST JE, 1999, J VOLCANOL GEOTH RES, V92, P1 HARRELLBOND, 1986, IMPOSING AID EMERGEN HEWITT K, 1997, REGIONS RISK GEOGRAP, V1, P1 LOW, 1992, PLACE ATTACHMENT, P1 MARTINS LM, 1990, THESIS U AZORES PORT MASKREY A, 1989, DISASTER MITIGATION MILETI DS, 1975, HUMAN SYSTEMS EXTREM MOORE RB, 1990, B VOLCANOL, V52, P602 MOORE RB, 1991, GEOLOGIC MAP SAO MIG MOORE RB, 1991, US GEOL SURV B NOLAN ML, 1979, VOLCANIC ACTIVITY HU, P293 OKEEFE P, 1976, NATURE, V260, P566 OSKARSSON N, 1999, J VOLCANOL GEOTH RES, V92, P181 PACHECO JM, 1995, CARACTERIZACAO DEPOS PACHECO JM, 1996, 2 WORKSH EUR LAB VOL PERRY RW, 1980, DISASTERS, V4, P433 PERRY, 1985, COMPREHENSIVE EMERGE POMONIS P, 1999, J VOLCANOL GEOTHERM, V92, P107 QUARANTELLI EL, 1980, EVACUATION BEHAV PRO RAPHAEL B, 1986, DISASTER STRIKES HDB RIVLIN LG, 1987, NEIGHBORHOOD COMMUNI, P441 SAYERS D, 1994, GUIDA JARDIM SEN AK, 1992, INEQUALITY REXAMINED SIME JD, 1983, J ENVIRON PSYCHOL, V3, P21 SIME JD, 1990, FIRES HUMAN BEHAV, P63 SUSMAN P, 1983, INTERPRETATIONS CALA, P263 TOWNSEND P, 1987, J SOC POLICY, V16, P125 WALLENSTEIN N, 1998, ERUPCAO 1563 PICO SA WENGER DE, 1975, MASS EMERGENCIES, V1, P33 WICKER AW, 1969, J SOC ISSUES, V25, P41 WILLIAMS JR, 1982, YET THEY COME PORTUG ZBYSZEWSKI, 1961, COM SERV GEOL PORTUG, V45, P5 NR 74 TC 4 J9 J VOLCANOL GEOTHERM RES BP 133 EP 150 PY 1999 PD SEP VL 92 IS 1-2 GA 256HM UT ISI:000083719900010 ER PT J AU Parry, ML TI Scenarios for climate impact and adaptation assessment SO GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS LA English DT Editorial Material C1 Univ E Anglia, Sch Environm Sci, Jackson Environm Inst, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. RP Parry, ML, Univ E Anglia, Sch Environm Sci, Jackson Environm Inst, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. CR CARTER TR, 2000, CLIMATE CHANGE 21 CE HOUGHTON JT, 1996, SCI CLIMATE CHANGE HOUGHTON JT, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 METZ B, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 NAKICENOVIC N, 2000, SPECIAL REPORT EMISS SWART RJ, 2002, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V12, P155 WATSON RT, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 NR 8 TC 3 J9 GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANGE BP 149 EP 153 PY 2002 PD OCT VL 12 IS 3 GA 612KX UT ISI:000179075400001 ER PT J AU Usher, P TI Integrating impacts into adaptation measures SO ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING AND ASSESSMENT LA English DT Article C1 UNEP, Atmosphere Unit, Nairobi, Kenya. RP Usher, P, UNEP, Atmosphere Unit, POB 47074, Nairobi, Kenya. AB A mechanism has been established to improve integration of international climate-related programmes. Known as the Climate Agenda it outlines a programme, that in a cost-effective way, responds to national obligations to respond to international agreements as well as their national needs for social and economic development. The paper briefly describes the Climate Agenda and the incorporation within it of studies of climate impact assessments and response strategies to reduce vulnerability The need for increased emphasis on climate impact assessment and for the development of effective adaptation measures is emphasised following the elaboration of a Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). UNEP's efforts to identify national programmes contributing to the Climate Agenda are described. The response from developing countries has, however, been very disappointing, even from countries where we know work is ongoing through funding by GEF or US Country Studies Program and other bilateral programmes. Initial compilation of information available so far shows that many developed countries are putting a lot into the area of impact assessment of not just climate change, but also climate variability. There remain some research gaps, especially in the area of assessment of climate impacts on ecosystems, hydrological systems, etc. Considerable efforts are presently being directed at reduction of emissions of greenhouse gases and in the case of developing countries, most efforts are being directed towards completing national communications and providing baseline data for future studies. The paper refers to early activities by UNEP in cooperation with other international organizations to undertake integrated assessments of the impacts of climate change on important socio-economic sectors and the later incorporation of lessons teamed into the IPCC Guidelines for Assessing Impacts of Climate Change. Later sections outline the development of a handbook on methods for climate change impact assessment and adaptation strategies as a practical approach to national assessments and the development of appropriate and cost-effective response to climate change. The initiation of a GEF-funded project to apply the methods contained in the handbook and improve the results based on national studies is also described for both developed and developing countries. Working in collaboration with a team of international experts under the coordination of the Institute of Environmental Studies at Vrije University (Amsterdam), the goal of this ongoing project is to develop a valuable methodological tool that Parties to the UNFCCC may apply to develop national climate change impact and adaptation assessments. Development of these guidelines was linked to a series of country studies in Antigua and Barbuda, Estonia, Cameroon and Pakistan funded under a UNEP/GEF project. The application of the first version of the UNEP Handbook by national study teams in these four countries is making valuable technical and practical contributions and will ensure that the next version of the Handbook will be a more useful tool for experts in developing countries undertaking similar studies in the future. The methods contained in the Handbook are also the basis for similar assessments funded under bilateral development programmes in other countries. These and similar studies elsewhere are coordinated with the UNEP programme and will eventually aim to create reliable and comparable assessments, a compatible set of tools for such purpose and the identification of realistic adaptation options for incorporation into national planning for adapting to climate change. The paper also addresses how climate impact assessment and response strategies are undertaken as part of national enabling activities carried out in co-operation with UNEP. NR 0 TC 1 J9 ENVIRON MONIT ASSESS BP 37 EP 48 PY 2000 PD MAR VL 61 IS 1 GA 300UB UT ISI:000086270100003 ER PT J AU Courtois, P TI The status of integrated assessment in climatic policy making - An overview of inconsistencies underlying response functions SO ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE & POLICY LA English DT Article C1 Univ Autonoma Barcelona, CODE, Dept Econ & Hist Econ, Bellaterra 08193, Spain. RP Courtois, P, Univ Autonoma Barcelona, CODE, Dept Econ & Hist Econ, Edifici B, Bellaterra 08193, Spain. AB What climatic lessons can be derived from cost and benefit integrated assessment models? This paper presents state of the art methods to assess climate change impacts and build corresponding response functions. These last constitute one of the keystone of cost and benefit integrated assessment approaches to climate change. It focuses on the many shortcomings and inconsistencies underlying these functions and highlights how they can act as an invisible hand driving modelling results. The paper deduces lessons over the status of cost and benefit integrated assessment models to guide decision makers on climatic policy design, and closes on some relevant methodological insights over the treatment of these issues. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *NAT AC, 2002, COMM AB CLIM CHANG O BRUCE JP, 1996, EC SOCIAL DIMENSIONS CARTER TR, 1994, IPCC TECHNICAL GUIDE FANKHAUSER S, 1994, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V4, P301 HOURCADE JC, 1995, ENERG POLICY, V23, P433 JAEGER CC, 1998, HUMAN COICE CLIMATE, V3 KATZ RW, 2001, UNPUB TECHNIQUES EST MAHLMAN JD, 1997, SCIENCE, V278, P1416 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 MENDELSOHN R, 1999, EC IMPACT CLIMATE CH MENDELSOHN R, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P533 MENDELSOHN R, 2000, COMMUNICATION MYLES RA, 2000, NATURE, V407, P617 NORDHAUS WD, 1999, NEW ESTIMATES EC IMP NORDHAUS WD, 2000, WARMING WORLD EC MOD PARRY ML, 1996, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V6, P1 PECK S, 1993, ASSESSING SURPRISES REILLY JM, 1994, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V4, P24 ROSENZWEIG C, 1994, NATURE, V367, P133 ROTMANS J, 1998, HUMAN CHOICE CLIMATE, V3 TOL RSJ, 1994, ENERG POLICY, V22, P436 TOL RSJ, 2002, ENVIRON RESOUR ECON, V21, P135 TOL RSJ, 2002, ENVIRON RESOUR ECON, V21, P47 NR 23 TC 0 J9 ENVIRON SCI POLICY BP 69 EP 75 PY 2004 VL 7 IS 1 GA 769CG UT ISI:000188608400007 ER PT J AU BRUCE, JP TI NATURAL DISASTER REDUCTION AND GLOBAL CHANGE SO BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY LA English DT Article AB This article is the third in a series of three articles based on a presentation to the Symposium on the International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction held 24 January 1994 in Nashville, Tennessee. The symposium was held in conjunction with the 74th AMS Annual Meeting. CR 1986, CONTROL WATER POLLUT 1991, DISASTER HIST 1900 P BERZ G, 1993, REVIEW JUN, P32 BURTON I, 1978, ENV HAZARD, V1, P1 HOUGHTON J, 1994, GLOBAL WARMING COMPL KREIMER A, 1992, 168 WORLD BANK DISC MEEHL GA, 1993, WORKSHOP SOCIOECONOM PITTOCK AB, 1991, P INT HYDROLOGY WATE, P182 PLATE EJ, 1992, PLANNING WATER RESOU RIND D, 1993, CLIMATE ALERT NEWSLE, V6, P2 ROWNTREE P, 1993, WORKSHOP SOCIOECONOM, P3 RUSSELL N, 1993, DISASTER MITIGATION, P150 SWAIL V, 1993, CLIMATE PERSPECTIVES, V15, P17 TAKEDO T, 1993, AICHI NAGOYA INT C J, P397 TOL RSJ, 1993, WORKSHOP SOCIOECONOM TUCKER B, 1993, AICHI NAGOYA INT C J, P23 XUE YK, 1993, J CLIMATE, V6, P2232 NR 17 TC 5 J9 BULL AMER METEOROL SOC BP 1831 EP 1835 PY 1994 PD OCT VL 75 IS 10 GA PN886 UT ISI:A1994PN88600006 ER PT J AU Pelling, M TI What determines vulnerability to floods: A case study in Georgetown, Guyana SO ENVIRONMENT AND URBANIZATION LA English DT Article C1 UNIV GUYANA,DEPT GEOG,GEORGETOWN,GUYANA. AB This paper describes how a high proportion of Greater Georgetown's inhabitants are subjected to regular floods and examines also the vulnerability of households to flooding and flood impacts in four of the city's 49 wards, It demonstrates the importance of incorporating social and economic assets together with physical resources as key ''dynamic pressures''((1)) in assessments of household and neighbourhood vulnerability to environmental stress. It also identities households and communities as active agents in the management of vulnerability and examines the potential of such organizations for reducing vulnerability based upon economic poverty. CR 1996, STABROEK NEWS 0101 *BUR STAT, 1993, POP HOUS CENS 1991 *CENTR HOUS PLANN, 1993, GOV GUYANA HOUS POL *CTR HOUS PLANN AG, 1996, HOUS URB DEV GUY CHP *IDB, 1994, BUILD CONS SOC EC RE *MIN HLTH, 1995, DRAFT NAT HLTH PLAN *PAHO WHO, 1993, HLTH AM GUYANA PAHO *WORLD BANK, 1992, GUY EC REC SUST GROW *WORLD BANK, 1993, PUBL SECT REV BLAIKIE PM, 1994, RISK NATURAL HAZARDS, V1, P1 BOMBAROLO F, 1994, FUNDING COMMUNITY IN CAIRNCROSS S, 1990, POOR DIE YOUNG CHAMBERS R, 1989, IDS B, V20, P1 COMACHO RF, 1993, IMPLICATIONS CLIMATE FERGUSON T, 1995, STRUCTURAL ADJUSTMEN HALCROW W, 1994, PRIMARY DRAINAGE SYS HALCROW W, 1994, TNGMP09 W HALCR PART JAGAN CB, 1993, TRANSITION, P20 KEMP S, 1993, STAT ANAL GEORGETOWN PELLING M, 1992, REV SELF HELP HOUSIN RODNEY D, 1993, TRANSITION 20 21 SIMON K, 1994, CLIM CHANG C GEORG G STEPHENS C, 1996, ENVIRON URBAN, V8, P9 SWEDEPLAN, 1995, SHOREZONE MANAGEMENT THOMAS CY, 1993, SOC ECON STUD, V42, P133 WRATTEN E, 1995, ENVIRON URBAN, V7, P11 NR 26 TC 3 J9 ENVIRON URBAN BP 203 EP 226 PY 1997 PD APR VL 9 IS 1 GA WX909 UT ISI:A1997WX90900012 ER PT J AU BACHELET, D BROWN, D BOHM, M RUSSELL, P TI CLIMATE CHANGE IN THAILAND AND ITS POTENTIAL IMPACT ON RICE YIELD SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 US EPA,ENVIRONM RES LAB,CORVALLIS,OR 97333. RP BACHELET, D, MANTECH ENVIRONM TECHNOL INC USA,200 SW 35TH ST,CORVALLIS,OR 97333. AB In Thailand, the world's largest rice exporter, rice constitutes a major export on which the economy of the whole country depends. Climate change could affect rice growth and development and thus jeopardize Thailand's wealth. Current climatic conditions in Thailand are compared to predictions from four general circulation models (GCMs). Temperature predictions correlate well with the observed values. Predictions of monthly rainfall correlate poorly. Virtually all models agree that significant increases in temperature (from 1 to 7-degrees-C) will occur in the region including Thailand following a doubling in atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration. The regional seasonality and extent of the rise in temperature varies with each model. Predictions of changes in rainfall vary widely between models. Global warming should in principle allow a northward expansion of rice-growing areas and a lengthening of the growing season now constrained by low temperatures. The expected increase in water-use efficiency due to enhanced CO2 might decrease the water deficit vulnerability of dryland rice areas and could make it possible to slightly expand them. CR 1976, CLIMATE RICE 1982, STUDY AGROCLIMATOLOG 1983, WORLD GRAIN EC CLIMA 1989, IMPLEMENTING STARTEG ACKERMAN TP, 1988, ENVIRONMENT, V30, P31 ADAMS RM, 1988, W J AGR EC, V13, P348 ALLEN LH, 1990, J ENVIRON QUAL, V19, P15 BAKER JT, 1990, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V50, P201 BAKER JT, 1990, AGRON J, V82, P834 BAZZAZ FA, 1989, OECOLOGIA, V79, P223 CESS RD, 1989, NATURE, V342, P736 DICKINSON RE, 1989, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V15, P5 GROTCH SL, 1988, NBB0084 US DEP EN PU GUTOWSKI WJ, 1988, DOEER60422H1 HANSEN J, 1984, CLIMATE PROCESSES CL, V5, P130 HATCH W, 1986, SELECTIVE GUIDE CLIM ISHII Y, 1978, MONOGRAPHS CTR SE AS JOYCE LA, 1990, RM187 USDA FOR SERV KARL TR, 1989, 13TH P ANN CLIM DIAG, P251 KARL TR, 1990, J CLIMATE, V3, P1053 OGAWA H, 1961, NATURE LIFE S E ASIA, V1, P20 OHMAN HL, 1965, ES19 US ARM MAT COMM PANTURAT S, 1990, CLIMATOL B, V24, P16 PARRY ML, 1988, IMPACT CLIMATIC VARI, V1, P11 SCHLESINGER ME, 1989, J CLIMATE, V2, P459 SCHNEIDER SH, 1989, CLIMATE CHANGE US WA SESHU DV, 1989, CLIMATE FOOD SECURIT, P93 SPANGLER WML, 1985, WORLD MONTHLY SURFAC STANSEL JW, 1980, P S AGROMETEOROLOGY, P201 SUWANWONG S, 1983, PADDY NITROGEN EC CO, P7 WETHERALD RT, 1986, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V8094, P5470 WIGLEY TML, 1990, J GEOPHYS RES-ATMOSP, V95, P1943 WILSON CA, 1987, J GEOPHYS RES, V92, P315 YOSHIDA S, 1976, ECOPHYSIOLOGY TROPIC, P57 YOSHINO MM, 1988, IMPACT CLIMATE VARIA, V1, P853 NR 35 TC 1 J9 CLIMATIC CHANGE BP 347 EP 366 PY 1992 PD AUG VL 21 IS 4 GA JF464 UT ISI:A1992JF46400002 ER PT J AU M'barek, R Behle, C Mulindabigwi, V Schopp, M Singer, U TI Sustainable resource management in Benin embedded in the process of decentralisation SO PHYSICS AND CHEMISTRY OF THE EARTH LA English DT Article C1 Univ Bonn, Inst Agr Policy Market Res & Econ Sociol, D-53115 Bonn, Germany. Univ Bonn, Dept Geog, D-53115 Bonn, Germany. Univ Bonn, Dept Hort, D-53121 Bonn, Germany. RP M'barek, R, Univ Bonn, Inst Agr Policy Market Res & Econ Sociol, Nussallee 21, D-53115 Bonn, Germany. AB This article gives an overview on an integrated socio-economic approach to meet the complexity of resource use in a representative catchment area in Benin, West Africa. Main objective of the studies is to analyse interdependencies between resource availability and socio-economic, respectively, demographic development, incorporated in the process of institutional reorganisation. The ongoing decentralisation in Benin encounters obstacles, as responsibility is shifted from a national to a local level without being embedded in a framework of constitutional security. In this article we focus on crucial problems and highlight significant though preliminary results with reference to the decentralisation process, regarding basically the resources water and land. Results of field surveys are presented together with a modelling tool to integrate these data in an agricultural sector model. Water will become scarcer due to growing population and changing water consumption patterns. Migration flows aggravate the competition over land and water. The detailed knowledge on these shortly outlined processes allows to identify sustainable strategies in order to mitigate the impending crises. Resource management approaches like CBNRM ("Community Based Natural Resource Management") form a conceptual basis, which must be accompanied by a long-term planning of state institutions to steer resource use and by the introduction of locally adapted land use systems (like Cashew-plantations in the catchment). The decision support system BenIMPACT supports the quantitative assessment of different development paths. The dominant basic needs strategies of all national and international development agencies operating in Benin have to recognise the process of the shortening of the basic natural resources water and land to ensure their sustainability in the future. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *CTR EC HYDR, US WAT POV IND MON P *FAO, 2002, AQ MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 *WORLD BANK, 2003, WORLD BANK COUNTR DA AKPAKI JA, 2002, ACKERBAUERN MOBILE T CHABAL P, 1999, AFRICA WORKS DISORDE FALKENMARK M, 1992, POPULATION WATER RES FALKENMARK M, 1999, WATER REFLECTION LAN FLORIN R, 2003, COMMUNICATION LEACH M, 1999, WORLD DEV, V27, P225 MWABU G, 2001, RURAL DEV EC GROWTH PEPELS W, 1995, KAUFERVERHALTEN MARK PRETTY J, 2001, CARBON EMISSIONS SEQ RUTHBERG H, 1976, Z AUSLANDISCHE LANDW, V15, P42 THAMM HP, 2002, IMPE TUS S COT 20 21 VANDENAKKER E, 2000, MAKROOKONOMISCHE BEW WALLACE JS, 2000, AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON, V82, P105 NR 17 TC 0 J9 PHYS CHEM EARTH BP 365 EP 371 PY 2005 VL 30 IS 6-7 GA 969QM UT ISI:000232249600006 ER PT J AU Jackson, LE Bird, SL Matheny, RW O'Neill, RV White, D Boesch, KC Koviach, JL TI A regional approach to projecting land-use change and resulting ecological vulnerability SO ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING AND ASSESSMENT LA English DT Article C1 US EPA, Natl Hlth & Environm Effects Res Lab, Res Triangle Pk, NC 27711 USA. US EPA, Natl Exposure Res Lab, Athens, GA 30605 USA. US EPA, Natl Exposure Res Lab, Res Triangle Pk, NC 27711 USA. TN & Associates, Oak Ridge, TN 37831 USA. US EPA, Natl Hlth & Environm Effects Res Lab, Corvallis, OR 97333 USA. Univ N Carolina, Dept City & Reg Planning, Chapel Hill, NC 27599 USA. RP Jackson, LE, US EPA, Natl Hlth & Environm Effects Res Lab, Res Triangle Pk, NC 27711 USA. AB This study explores ecological vulnerability to land-use change in the U.S. Mid-Atlantic Region by spatially extrapolating land and economic development, and overlaying these projections with maps of sensitive ecological resources. As individual extrapolations have a high degree of uncertainty, five methods with different theoretical bases are employed. Confidence in projections is increased for counties targeted by two or more projection methods. A county is considered at risk if it currently supports three or more sensitive resources, and is projected to experience significant growth by the year 2010 by two or more methods. Analysis designated 19 counties and two cities as at risk, highlighting within a large region the priority areas where state and regional efforts would contribute the most to integrating environmental considerations into the process of land development. The study also found that potentially severe ecological effects of future land-use change are not limited to the outskirts of major urban areas. Recreational demands on smaller communities with mountain and coastal resources are also significant, as are initiatives to promote economic development in rural areas of high ecological quality. This approach provides a comprehensive overview of potential regional development, leading to an objective prioritization of high-risk areas. The intent is to inform local planning and decision-making so that regional and cumulative ecological degradation are minimized. CR *AM LUNG ASS, 2000, STAT AIR 2000 *US EPA, 2000, EPA600R00098 OFF RES, P260 *USCB, 1996, PROJ HOUS TYP 1995 1 *USCB, 1996, PROJ HOUS TYP 1995 2 *USCB, 1996, PROJ HOUS TYP 1995 3 *USCB, 1998, US COUNT 1998 STAT S *WOODS POOL EC INC, 1998, COMPL EC DEM DAT SOU ABBITT RJF, 2000, BIOL CONSERV, V96, P169 BARTLETT JG, 2000, POPUL ENVIRON, V21, P429 CLARK G, 1998, MITIG ADAPT STRAT GL, V3, P59 CLARKE KC, 1997, ENVIRON PLANN B, V24, P247 CLARKE KC, 1998, INT J GEOGR INF SCI, V12, P699 CUTTER SL, 2000, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V90, P713 GARDNER RH, 1987, LANDSCAPE ECOL, V1, P19 GARDNER RH, 1991, QUANTITATIVE METHODS, P289 GARDNER RH, 1993, HUMANS COMPONENTS EC, P208 GRIFFIN DM, 1980, J WATER POLLUTION CO, V52, P780 HARDIE I, 2000, LAND ECON, V76, P659 HULSE D, 2000, LANDSCAPE J, V19, P1 JONES RC, 1987, WATER RESOURCES B, V23, P1047 KUO FE, 1998, AM J COMMUN PSYCHOL, V26, P823 MASTER L, 1996, GAP ANAL LANDSCAPE A, P171 OCONNELL TJ, 2000, ECOL APPL, V10, P1706 OVERTON WS, 1990, EPA600391053 OFF RES, P52 PARKS PJ, 2000, ENVIRON MONIT ASSESS, V63, P175 PAULSEN SG, 1998, J AM WATER RESOUR AS, V34, P995 SCHUELER TR, 1987, CONTROLLING URBAN RU SCHULTE F, 1994, T 2 INT HIGH TEMP EL, V1, P3 SEABER PR, 1987, 2294 US GEOL SURV, P63 SHIGLEY P, 2000, CALIF J, V31, P30 SMITH ER, 2003, US EPAS REGIONAL VUL STANFIELD B, 2000, DANGER AIR UNHEALTHY TODD DA, 1989, J ENVIRON ENG-ASCE, V115, P633 VESTERBY M, 1991, LAND ECON, V67, P279 VOGELMANN JE, 2001, PHOTOGRAMM ENG REM S, V67, P650 VOINOV AA, 1999, ENVIRON MODELL SOFTW, V14, P473 WHITE D, 1999, LANDSCAPE ECOLOGICAL, P127 WICKHAM JD, 2000, J AM WATER RESOUR AS, V36, P1417 WICKHAM JD, 2000, LANDSCAPE ECOL, V15, P171 NR 39 TC 3 J9 ENVIRON MONIT ASSESS BP 231 EP 248 PY 2004 PD JUN VL 94 IS 1-3 GA 775UE UT ISI:000189078400017 ER PT J AU Jones, GV White, MA Cooper, OR Storchmann, K TI Climate change and global wine quality SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 So Oregon Univ, Dept Geog, Ashland, OR 97520 USA. Utah State Univ, Dept Aquat Watershed & Earth Resources, Logan, UT 84322 USA. Univ Colorado, CIRES, NOAA, Aeron Lab, Boulder, CO 80305 USA. Yale Univ, Dept Econ, New Haven, CT 06520 USA. RP Jones, GV, So Oregon Univ, Dept Geog, 1250 Siskiyou Blvd, Ashland, OR 97520 USA. AB From 1950 to 1999 the majority of the world's highest quality wine-producing regions experienced growing season warming trends. Vintage quality ratings during this same time period increased significantly while year-to-year variation declined. While improved winemaking knowledge and husbandry practices contributed to the better vintages it was shown that climate had, and will likely always have, a significant role in quality variations. This study revealed that the impacts of climate change are not likely to be uniform across all varieties and regions. Currently, many European regions appear to be at or near their optimum growing season temperatures, while the relationships are less defined in the New World viticulture regions. For future climates, model output for global wine producing regions predicts an average warming of 2 degrees C in the next 50 yr. For regions producing high quality grapes at the margins of their climatic limits, these results suggest that future climate change will exceed a climatic threshold such that the ripening of balanced fruit required for existing varieties and wine styles will become progressively more difficult. In other regions, historical and predicted climate changes could push some regions into more optimal climatic regimes for the production of current varietals. In addition, the warmer conditions could lead to more poleward locations potentially becoming more conducive to grape growing and wine production. CR AMERINE MA, 1944, HILGARDIA, V15, P493 ASHENFELTER O, 1995, CHANCE, V8, P7 ASHENFELTER O, 1995, ECON REC, V7, P40 ASHENFELTER O, 2000, VDQS ANN M AJ CORS F BINDI M, 1996, CLIMATE RES, V7, P213 BINDI M, 2000, CLIMATE CHANGE CLIMA, P117 BINDI M, 2001, EUR J AGRON, V14, P145 BROADBENT M, 1980, GREAT VINTAGE WINE B BUTTERFIELD RE, 2000, CLIMATE CHANGE CLIMA CARTER TR, 1991, INT J CLIMATOL, V11, P251 CHAHINE MT, 1992, NATURE, V359, P373 DEBLIJ HJ, 1983, J GEOGR, V82, P112 EASTERLING DR, 2000, B AM METEOROL SOC, V81, P417 FISCHER G, 2002, CLIMATE CHANGE AGR V FOREST CE, 2002, SCIENCE, V295, P113 GLADSTONES J, 1992, VITICULTURE ENV GORDON C, 2000, CLIM DYNAM, V16, P147 HOUGHTON TJ, 2001, CONTRIBUTIONS WORKIN JOHNSON H, 1985, WORLD ATLAS WINE JONES GV, 1997, SYNOPIC CLIMATOLOGIC JONES GV, 2000, AM J ENOL VITICULT, V51, P249 JONES GV, 2001, AGR ECON, V26, P115 JONES GV, 2003, OREGON VITICULTURE, P44 JONES GV, 2004, P VIN DAT QUANT SOC JONES GV, 2005, IN PRESS P 7 INT S G JONES GV, 2005, IN PRESS TERROIR SER KARL TR, 1993, B AM METEOROL SOC, V74, P1007 KENNY GJ, 1992, J WINE RES, V3, P163 LADURIE EL, 1971, TIMES FEAST TIMES FA LEGATES DR, 1990, THEOR APPL CLIMATOL, V41, P11 LOUGH JM, 1983, J CLIM APPL METEOROL, V22, P1673 MAZUR M, 2002, WINE ENTHUSIASTS 200 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 MCINNES KL, 2003, AUST NZ GRAPEGRO FEB, P40 MENZEL A, 1999, NATURE, V397, P659 MOISSELIN JM, 2002, METEOROLOGIE, V38, P45 MOONEN AC, 2002, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V111, P13 MULLINS MG, 1992, BIOL GRAPEVINE NEMANI RR, 2001, CLIMATE RES, V19, P25 PALUTIKOF JP, 2002, J CLIMATE, V15, P3529 PARKER RM, 1985, BORDEAUX DEFINITIVE PENNINGROWSELL EC, 1989, WINES BRODEAUX PFISTER C, 1988, LONG SHORT TERM VARI, P57 POPE VD, 2000, CLIM DYNAM, V16, P123 RAVAL A, 1989, NATURE, V342, P758 RENNER B, 1989, WINE SPIRIT DEC, P55 SCHULTZ HR, 2000, AUST J GRAPE WINE R, V6, P2 STEVENSON T, 2001, NEW SOTHEBYS WINE EN TATE AB, 2001, J WINE RES, V12, P95 UNWIN T, 1991, WINE VINE HIST GEOGR WILLMOTT C, 2002, MONTHLY ANN TIME SER WINKLER JA, 2002, J GREAT LAKES RES, V28, P608 NR 52 TC 3 J9 CLIMATIC CHANGE BP 319 EP 343 PY 2005 PD DEC VL 73 IS 3 GA 000SF UT ISI:000234482000005 ER PT J AU Weinstein, MP Reed, DJ TI Sustainable coastal development: The dual mandate and a recommendation for "commerce managed areas" SO RESTORATION ECOLOGY LA English DT Article C1 New Jersey Marine Sci Consortium, Sandy Hook Field Stn, Ft Hancock, NJ 07732 USA. Univ New Orleans, Dept Geol & Geophys, New Orleans, LA 70148 USA. RP Weinstein, MP, New Jersey Marine Sci Consortium, Sandy Hook Field Stn, Bldg 22, Ft Hancock, NJ 07732 USA. AB Pitting the dynamicism and uncertainty inherent in undisturbed coastal ecosystems against the stability and predictability required of human-dominated landscapes creates the paradox of the dual mandate. We describe a gradient of estuarine types ranging from systems that experience little human intrusion-conservation estuaries-to those that are dominated by people or extractive uses-production and urban-industrial estuaries. Future approaches to managing these estuarine resources will require a division of the concept of marine protected areas into at least two subcategories: "conservation" managed areas (CConservationMAs) and "commerce" managed areas (CCommerceMAs). The latter includes conditions where humans are not only a core feature of the landscape but also where extractive uses drive a large part of the local, regional, and even national economy. System reliability and predictability of ecosystem services are integral components of any management scheme in CCommerceMAs. By recognizing this division managers can construct appropriate baselines that encompass the biodiversity and ecological integrity inherent in relatively undisturbed estuaries (or portions thereof), or the ecosystem health and system reliability that characterize urban-industrial systems. The terms ecosystem restoration and ecosystem rehabilitation are also distinguished; the former term is used to describe practices that return ecosystems to optimum biological integrity, whereas the latter term is applied to the health of human-dominated estuaries where the goal is to manage natural processes and functions. Our proposed approach does not mean that ecosystem quality is sacrificed in urban-industrial or production systems; to the contrary, contaminant source control, suitable sediment and water quality, and the human endeavors to address them are just as important to sustaining commercial activity as they are to the well-being of extant biota. So too, are the conservation and preservation of existing critical habitat (proximate reservoirs of biodiversity) in urban-industrial systems, and rehabilitation of habitats that support species coadapted to the presence of humans. 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Ctr Marine & Atmospher Res, Hamburg, Germany. Vrije Univ Amsterdam, Inst Environm Studies, Amsterdam, Netherlands. Carnegie Mellon Univ, Pittsburgh, PA 15213 USA. RP Tol, RSJ, Univ Hamburg, Res Unit Sustainabil & Global Change, Hamburg, Germany. AB Adaptation to climate change and mitigation of climate change are policy substitutes, as both reduce the impacts of climate change. Adaptation and mitigation should therefore be analysed together, as they indeed are, albeit in a rudimentary way, in cost-benefit analyses of emission abatement. However, adaptation and mitigation are done by different people operating at different spatial and temporal scales. This hampers analysis of the trade-offs between adaptation and mitigation. An exception is facilitative adaptation (enhancing adaptive capacity), which, like mitigation, requires long-term policies at macro level. Facilitative adaptation and mitigation not only both reduce impacts, but they also compete for resources. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 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Univ Maryland, Earth Syst Sci Interdisciplinary Ctr, College Pk, MD 20742 USA. Univ Maryland Ctr Environm Sci, Appalachian Lab, Frostburg, MD USA. RP DeFries, R, Univ Maryland, Dept Geog, 2181 LeFrak Hall, College Pk, MD 20742 USA. 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NR 0 TC 0 J9 INT J PSYCHOL BP 301 EP 301 PY 2000 PD JUN-AUG VL 35 IS 3-4 GA 337XP UT ISI:000088388802939 ER PT J AU Mitchell, TD Hulme, M TI Predicting regional climate change: living with uncertainty SO PROGRESS IN PHYSICAL GEOGRAPHY LA English DT Article C1 Univ E Anglia, Sch Environm Sci, Climat Res Unit, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. RP Mitchell, TD, Univ E Anglia, Sch Environm Sci, Climat Res Unit, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. AB Regional climate prediction is not an insoluble problem, but it is a problem characterized by inherent uncertainty. There are two sources of this uncertainty: the unpredictability of the climatic and global systems. The climate system is rendered unpredictable by deterministic chaos; the global system renders climate prediction uncertain through the unpredictability of the external forcings imposed on the climate system. It is commonly inferred from the differences between climate models on regional scales that the models are deficient, but climate system unpredictability is such that this inference is premature; the differences are due to an unresolved combination of climate system unpredictability and model deficiencies. Since model deficiencies are discussed frequently and the two sources of inherent uncertainty are discussed only rarely, this review considers the implications of climatic and global system unpredictability for regional climate prediction. Consequently we regard regional climate prediction as a cascade of uncertainty, rather than as a single result process sullied by model deficiencies. We suggest three complementary methodological approaches: (1) the use of multiple forcing scenarios to cope with global system unpredictability; (2) the use of ensembles to cope with climate system unpredictability; and (3) the consideration of the entire response of the climate system to cope with the nature of climate change. We understand regional climate change in terms of changes in the general circulations of the atmosphere and oceans; so we illustrate the role of uncertainty in the task of regional climate prediction with the behaviour of the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation. In conclusion we discuss the implications of the uncertainties in regional climate prediction for research into the impacts of climate change, and we recognize the role of feedbacks in complicating the relatively simple cascade of uncertainties presented here. 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RP Zhan, FB, Texas State Univ, Dept Geog, Texas Ctr Geog Informat Sci, 601 Univ Dr, San Marcos, TX 78666 USA. AB The unique geography of the Florida Keys presents both high risk of hurricane landfall and exceptional vulnerability to the effects of a hurricane strike. Inadequate hurricane shelters in the Keys make evacuation the only option for most residents, but the sole access road can become impassable well in advance of a major storm. These extraordinary conditions create challenges for emergency managers who must ensure that appropriate emergency plans are in place and to ensure that an orderly exodus can occur without stranding large numbers of people along an evacuation route with inadequate shelter capacity. This study attempts to answer two questions: (1) What is the minimum clearance time needed to evacuate all residents participating in an evacuation of the Florida Keys in advance of a major hurricane for 92,596 people - a population size calculated based on the 2000 US Census population data, census undercounts, and the number of tourists estimated to be in the area? (2) If a hurricane makes landfall in the Keys while the evacuation is in progress, how many residents will need to be accommodated if the evacuation route becomes impassable? The authors conducted agent-based microsimulations to answer the questions. Simulation results suggest that it takes 20 h and 11 min to 20 h and 14 min to evacuate the 92,596 people. This clearance time is less than the Florida state mandated 24-h clearance time limit. If one assumes that people evacuate in a 48-h period and the traffic flow from the Keys would follow that observed in the evacuation from Hurricane Georges, then a total of 460 people may be stranded if the evacuation route becomes impassable 48 h after an evacuation order is issued. If the evacuation route becomes impassable 40 h after an evacuation order is issued, then 14,000 people may be stranded. CR *MILL CONS INC, 2001, FLOR KEYS HURR EV RE *MONR COUNT, 2003, MONR COUNT PUBL FAC *ORNL, 1998, OAK RIDG EV MOD SYST *POST BUCKL SCHUH, 1999, HURR GEORG ASS REV H *PTV PLAN TRANSP V, 2003, VISSIM 3 70 US MAN *URS CORP INC, 2002, FLOR KEYS CARR CAP S *US CENS BUR, 2004, MONR COUNT QUICKF ANDERSON P, 1999, ORGAN SCI, V10, P216 BAKER EJ, 1991, INT J MASS EMERGENCI, V9, P287 BAKER EJ, 2000, HURRICANE EVACUATION BONABEAU E, 2002, HARVARD BUS REV, V80, P109 BONABEAU E, 2002, P NATL ACAD SCI U S3, V99, P7280 CHEN X, 2004, 83 ANN M TRANSP RES CHURCH RL, 2002, 3021 U CAL CLATR TES COVA TJ, 1997, INT J GEOGR INF SCI, V11, P763 COVA TJ, 2002, ENVIRON PLANN A, V34, P2211 CROSS JA, 1990, INT J MASS EMERGENCI, V8, P31 DASH N, 2001, GLOB ENV CHANGE ENV, V2, P119 DRABEK TE, 1986, HUMAN SYSTEM RESPONS EBELING W, 2001, THEOR BIOSCI, V120, P207 FARAHMAND K, 1997, P 1997 WINT SIM C, P1181 FU H, 2004, 83 ANN M TRANSP RES GILBERT N, 2002, P NATL ACAD SCI U S3, V99, P7197 HOBEIKA AG, 1985, EMERGENCY PLANNING S, V15, P23 JHA M, 2004, TRANSPORT RES REC, P40 MELETI DS, 1975, HUMAN SYSTEMS EXTREM MOELLER M, 1981, NUREGCR2504 NELSON CE, 1989, MODELS HURRICANE EVA PERKINS RD, 1968, J GEOL, V76, P710 PIDD M, 1996, EUR J OPER RES, V90, P413 SHEFFI Y, 1982, TRANSPORT RES A-POL, V16, P209 SINUANYSTERN Z, 1993, SOCIO ECON PLAN SCI, V27, P97 STERN E, 1996, J TRANSPORT GEOGR, V4, P169 URBANIK T, 2000, J HAZARD MATER, V75, P165 WHITE GF, 1975, ASSESSMENT RES NATUR, V1, P1 WIEDEMANN R, 1974, SCHRIFTENREIHE I VER, V8 WINDHAM GO, 1977, 51 MISS STAT U STAT NR 37 TC 0 J9 NATURAL HAZARDS BP 321 EP 338 PY 2006 PD JUL VL 38 IS 3 GA 039VG UT ISI:000237335000002 ER PT J AU BROWN, BJ HANSON, ME LIVERMAN, DM MERIDETH, RW TI GLOBAL SUSTAINABILITY - TOWARD DEFINITION SO ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article C1 UNIV WISCONSIN,INST ENVIRONM STUDIES,1007 WARF BLDG,MADISON,WI 53705. CR 1980, GLOBAL 2000 REPORT P 1980, WORLD CONSERVATION S 1984, POTENTIAL POPULATION 1985, DESERTIFICATION SAHE 1985, ENV PROFESSIONAL, V7, P205 1986, BIOL DIVERSITY GOES, V36, P708 1986, CONSERVING BIOL DIVE 1986, WORLD RESOURCES 1986 ANDERER J, 1981, ENERGY FINITE WORLD BORGSTROM G, 1969, TOO MANY STUDY EARTH BOULDING K, 1966, ENV QUALITY GROWING BROWN LR, 1981, BUILDING SUSTAINABLE BROWN LR, 1986, STATE WORLD BROWN LR, 1987, STATE WORLD CALDWELL LK, 1984, ENVIRON CONSERV, V11, P299 CLARK W, 1986, UNPUB SUSTAINABLE DE CLARK WC, 1985, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V7, P5 CONWAY GR, 1985, AGR ADMIN, V20, P31 COOKE E, 1976, MAN ENERGY SOC DALY H, 1973, STEADY STATE EC DALY H, 1980, EC ECOLOGY ETHICS ES DASMANN R, 1985, SUSTAINING TOMORROW DICASTRI F, 1986, ECOSYSTEM THEORY APP DOUGLASS GK, 1984, AGR SUSTAINABILITY C EDENS TC, 1985, SUSTAINABLE AGR INTE EHRENFELD DW, 1976, AM SCI, V64, P648 GEORGESCUROEGEN N, 1971, ENTROPY LAW EC PROCE GEVER JR, 1986, BEYOND OIL GOLDSMITH E, 1972, BLUEPRINT SURVIVAL HARDIN G, 1977, MANAGING COMMONS HOLDGATE M, 1982, WORLD ENV 1972 1982 HOLLING CS, 1978, ADAPTIVE ENV ASSESSM ILTIS HH, 1983, ENVIRONMENT, V25, P55 JACKSON W, 1984, M EXPECTATIONS LAND LAWRENCE R, 1984, AGR ECOSYSTEMS LOVINS A, 1979, SOFT ENERGY PATHS MASLOW A, 1970, MOTIVATION PERSONALI MEADOWS D, 1982, GROPING DARK 1ST DEC MILBRATH LW, 1984, ENVIRONMENTALIST, V4, P113 MITCHELL B, 1979, GEOGRAPHY RESOURCE A ODUM EP, 1983, BASIC ECOLOGY OPHULS W, 1977, ECOLOGY POLITICS SCA ORIORDAN T, 1985, ENVIRON PLANN A, V17, P1431 PEARSON C, 1985, DOWN BUSINESS MULTIN PIRAGES D, 1977, SUSTAINABLE SOC IMPL REPETTO R, 1985, GLOBAL POSSIBLE STEEN HK, 1984, HIST SUSTAINED YIELD TALBOT L, 1984, SUSTAINING TOMORROW THUROW L, 1980, ZERO SUM SOC TISDELL CA, 1985, ENV PROFESSIONAL, V7, P102 TIVY J, 1982, HUMAN IMPACT ECOSYST WATT K, 1977, UNSTEADY STATE NR 52 TC 52 J9 ENVIRON MANAGE BP 713 EP 719 PY 1987 PD NOV VL 11 IS 6 GA L3213 UT ISI:A1987L321300002 ER PT J AU Jongens, R Gibb, J Alloway, BV TI A new hazard zonation methodology applied to residentially developed sea-cliffs with very low erosion rates, East Coast Bays, Auckland, New Zealand SO NATURAL HAZARDS LA English DT Article C1 Inst Geol & Nucl Sci Ltd GNS Sci, Dunedin, New Zealand. Coastal Management Consultancy Ltd, Tauranga, New Zealand. GNS Sci, Gracefield Res Ctr, Lower Hutt, New Zealand. RP Jongens, R, Inst Geol & Nucl Sci Ltd GNS Sci, Private Bag 1930, Dunedin, New Zealand. AB A new hazard zonation methodology is applied to the East Coast Bays area of North Shore City, one of the most residentially developed cliffed shorelines in New Zealand. It is based on a series of geotechnical cliff profiles from three pilot study areas (George Gair Lookout, Rahopara Reserve-Kennedy Memorial Park, and Mairangi Bay-Rothesay Bay) which detail many of the variables that influence overall cliff stability. The methodology requires calculation of a Coastal Landslide Hazard Zone (CLHZ) width for each geotechnical profile and is derived by quantifying three factors: the rate of long-term sea-cliff retreat; the amount of horizontal retreat expected from either joint block fall, fault plane failure, or bedding plane failure, coupled with the amount of horizontal retreat resulting from slumping of the top weathered layer; and a safety factor. The rate of long-term sea-cliff retreat is multiplied by a hazard assessment period of 100 years, which is then added with the two other factors to derive a CLHZ width. Finally, the widths are entered into a Geographic Information System (GIS) to delineate a hazard zone. Owing to the very low rates (< 0.1 m a(-1)) of sea-cliff retreat in the East Coast Bays area, the long-term rate of sea-cliff retreat at each profile location could not be quantified by conventional survey techniques. Instead, a Sea-cliff Vulnerability Index (SVI) was employed to quantify the long-term rate. Weighted variables considered in the SVI include the bedding dip direction, the occurrence of faults and their orientation, sea-cliff aspect, cliff-toe and cliff-face lithology, cliff-top height, and the presence of groundwater seepage. Calculated CLHZ widths along East Coast Bays range between 13 m and 34 m inland of a reference cliff-line in response to spatial variations of the sea-cliff geology and morphology. The widths reflect the estimated degree of risk over the next 100 years from coastal erosion and landslips. CR *IPCC, 2001, CLIM CHANG 2001 SCI *RIL CONS, 1999, GEOT APPR SAF BARR F ALLOWAY B, 2005, J ROY SOC NEW ZEAL, V35, P229 BALLANCE PF, 1974, J GEOL, V82, P439 BELL P, 2003, MICROELECTRON INT, V20, P21 BELL T, 2000, HEAT TREAT MET, V27, P1 BIANIWSKI ZT, 1989, ENG ROCK MASS CLASSI BRODNAX RC, 1991, THESIS U AUCKLAND DELAMARE GN, 1992, THESIS U WAIKATO DELANGE WP, 1999, TEPHRA, V17, P3 GIBB JG, 1978, NEW ZEAL J MAR FRESH, V12, P429 GIBB JG, 1981, WATER SOIL TECH PUBL, V21, P63 GIBB JG, 1982, NEW ZEAL J GEOL GEOP, V25, P335 GIBB JG, 1984, NATURAL HAZARDS NZ, P135 GIBB JG, 1986, R SOC NZ B, V24, P377 GIBB JG, 1992, DEPT CONSERV SCI RES, V55, P101 GIBB JG, 1998, 986 RG COUNC CONS GIBB JG, 2001, 20016 GISB DISTR COU GIBBS JG, 1983, NZ ENG, V38, P15 GIBBS JG, 2002, 20021 NAP CIT COUNC GLASSEY P, 2003, P COSTS PORTS AUSTR, P12 GULYAEV SA, 2004, J COASTAL RES, V20, P871 ISAAC MJ, 1994, CRETACEOUS CENOZOIC, V8, P230 MOON VG, 1984, REPORT COASTAL CLIFF MOON VG, 1994, J COASTAL RES, V10, P663 MOON VG, 2003, P COASTS PORTS AUSTR MOORE LJ, 2002, MAR GEOL, V181, P265 SELBY MJ, 1980, Z GEOMORPHOL, V24, P31 SPORLI KB, 1989, ROYAL SOC NZ B, V26, P183 WHALLEY WB, 1984, SLOPE INSTABILITY, P217 NR 30 TC 0 J9 NATURAL HAZARDS BP 223 EP 244 PY 2007 PD JAN VL 40 IS 1 GA 125NR UT ISI:000243449300010 ER PT J AU SWIFT, J TI WHY ARE RURAL PEOPLE VULNERABLE TO FAMINE SO IDS BULLETIN-INSTITUTE OF DEVELOPMENT STUDIES LA English DT Article RP SWIFT, J, INST DEV STUDIES,BRIGHTON,ENGLAND. CR CISSOKO SM, 1968, B I FONDAMENTAL AF B, V30, P806 DEWAAL A, 1987, FAMINE KILLS DARFUR DEWAAL A, 1989, IN PRESS POPULATION, V43 DREZE J, 1988, 3 LOND SCH EC DEV EC SCOTT JC, 1976, MORAL EC PEASANT SEN AK, 1981, POVERTY FAMINES ESSA, V1, P1 SWIFT J, 1985, PLANNING DROUGHT FAM THOMPSON EP, 1971, PAST PRESENT, V50, P76 WATTS MJ, 1983, SILENT VIOLENCE FOOD NR 9 TC 31 J9 IDS BULL-INST DEVELOP STUD BP 8 EP 15 PY 1989 PD APR VL 20 IS 2 GA U6244 UT ISI:A1989U624400002 ER PT J AU PARKER, DJ HARDING, DM TI NATURAL HAZARD EVALUATION, PERCEPTION AND ADJUSTMENT SO GEOGRAPHY LA English DT Article C1 UNIV WALES UNIV COLL N WALES,DEPT FORESTRY & WOOD SCI,BANGOR LL57 2UW,GWYNEDD,WALES. RP PARKER, DJ, MIDDLESEX POLYTECH,LONDON,ENGLAND. CR *UK SCH COUNC, 1977, MAN NAT HAZ HURR MAN BARROWS HH, 1923, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V13, P1 BAUMANN DD, 1972, SCIENCE, P1386 BURTON I, 1961, 70 U CHIC DEP GEOGR BURTON I, 1964, NAT RESOUR J, V3, P412 BURTON I, 1968, 1 U TOR DEP GEOGR NA BURTON I, 1969, 115 U CHIC DEP GEOGR BURTON I, 1978, ENV HAZARD, V1, P1 CHANDLER TJ, 1976, GEOGR J, V142, P57 DOORNKAMP JC, 1979, ATLAS DROUGHT BRITAI HARDING DM, 1972, THESIS U WALES HARDING DM, 1974, NATURAL HAZARDS LOCA HEWITT K, 1971, HAZARDOUSNESS PLACE KATES RW, 1962, 78 U CHIC DEP GEOGR KATES RW, 1970, 14 U TOR DEP GEOGR N KATES RW, 1978, MANAGING TECHNOLOGIC KIDSON C, 1953, GEOGRAPHY, V38, P1 MITCHELL JK, 1974, PERSPECTIVES ENV MURPHY FC, 1958, 56 U CHIC DEP GEOGR PARKER DJ, 1976, THESIS U WALES PARKER DJ, 1978, DISASTERS, V2, P47 PENNINGROWSELL EC, 1977, BENEFITS FLOOD ALLEV PORTER EA, 1970, THESIS U CAMBRIDGE ROONEY J, 1969, WATER EARTH MAN SAARINEN TF, 1966, 106 U CHIC DEP GEOGR SCHIFF M, 1970, 15 NAT HAZ RES WORK SHEAFFER JR, 1960, 65 U CHIC DEP GEOGR SIMON HA, 1957, MODELS MAN SOCIAL RA SMITH K, 1979, HUMAN ADJUSTMENT FLO WALL G, 1973, ENV BEHAVIOR JUN, P29 WHITE GF, 1942, 29 U CHIC DEP GEOGR WHITE GF, 1958, 57 U CHIC DEP GEOGR WHITE GF, 1961, 70 U CHIC DEP GEOGR WHITE GF, 1974, NATURAL HAZARDS LOCA WHITE GF, 1975, ASSESSMENT RES NATUR, V1, P1 WISNER B, 1977, DISASTERS, V1, P47 NR 36 TC 5 J9 GEOGRAPHY BP 307 EP 316 PY 1979 VL 64 IS 285 GA HX719 UT ISI:A1979HX71900007 ER PT J AU Lane, ME Kirshen, PH Vogel, RM TI Indicators of impacts of global climate change on US water resources SO JOURNAL OF WATER RESOURCES PLANNING AND MANAGEMENT-ASCE LA English DT Article C1 Tufts Univ, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Medford, MA 02155 USA. RP Lane, ME, Tufts Univ, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Medford, MA 02155 USA. AB Environmental and socioeconomic indicators are selected to study the impacts of global warming on the water resources of the United States. One of the indicators, regional reservoir storage vulnerability, is a particularly useful index summarizing the effectiveness of regional water supply systems to meet demands. A comparison of indicator tabulation and evaluation methods finds that reporting an indicator as a fraction of its stress threshold is most effective. Indicator display methods are compared, and the star diagram proves most effective as a visual aggregation technique. Indicators and evaluation methods are applied to the present climate and to one possible climate change scenario assuming economic growth. It is apparent that the primary impacts of global warming occur in the western U.S. and include (1) fewer relative stresses an hydroelectric systems due to an increase in energy supply from other sources, and (2) more stresses on available water resources due to increases in total withdrawals and, in some cases, decreases in flows. The writers believe that with wise indicator display methods, mathematical aggregation of indicators into indices may be unnecessary. CR *ENV SYST RES I, 1997, ARC VIEW GIS VERS 3 *UN DIV SUST DEV, 1996, IND SUST DEV FRAM ME *US BUR CENS, 1990, 1990 US CENS *US DEP LAB, 1991, CONS PRIC IND DET RE *US EPA, 1996, BETT ASS SCI INT POI *US EPA, 1997, EPA841R97010 OFF WAT *US WAT RES COUNC, 1970, WAT RES REG SUBR NAT *US WAT RES COUNC, 1979, NAT WAT RES 1975 200, V3 *USA CORPS ENG, 1996, WAT CONTR INFR NAT I DALY C, 1994, J APPL METEOROL, V33, P140 FALKENMARK M, 1989, AMBIO, V18, P112 GLEICK PH, 1990, CLIMATE CHANGE US WA HOEKSTRA AY, 1995, GLOBO REP SERIES, V6 HOUGHTON JT, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995 KIRSHEN PH, 1995, J WATER RESOUR PLNG, V121 PETSCH HE, 1985, 85166 US DEP INT US RASKIN P, 1997, WATER FUTURES ASSESS ROGERS P, 1999, J WATER RES PL-ASCE, V125, P74 ROGERS PR, MEASURING ENV QUALIT RUSSELL GL, 1995, ATMOS OCEAN, V33, P683 SOLLEY WB, 1993, ESTIMATED USE WATER VOGEL RM, 1999, J IRRIG DRAIN E-ASCE, V125, P148 VOGEL RM, 1999, J WATER RESOUR PLNG, V125 NR 23 TC 3 J9 J WATER RESOUR PLAN MAN-ASCE BP 194 EP 204 PY 1999 PD JUL-AUG VL 125 IS 4 GA 211LB UT ISI:000081161600003 ER PT J AU van Kerkhoff, L TI Integrated research: concepts of connection in environmental science and policy SO ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE & POLICY LA English DT Article C1 Australian Natl Univ, Natl Ctr Epidemiol & Populat Hlth, Canberra, ACT 0200, Australia. RP van Kerkhoff, L, Australian Natl Univ, Natl Ctr Epidemiol & Populat Hlth, Canberra, ACT 0200, Australia. AB The idea of integration in research has risen rapidly in both environmental science and public environmental policy since the mid-1990s, and has encouraged innovative relationships between scientists and practitioners in a range of contexts, Yet the concept of integration is broad and ambiguous, which inhibits efforts to learn from these innovations. In this paper, I review the different concepts of integration that currently exist in international and Australian science and environmental policy contexts. Drawing on comprehensive examples, I identify 12 thematic categories of integration. The themes encompass integration within science, as well as integration between scientific and non-scientific partners. They also include integration focused on activities, and on the organisational or institutional structures, that govern research activity, These groupings reflect significant differences in the ways science-policy relationships are understood. and the main problems integration is intended to overcome. They serve as a foundation for a framework that researchers, policy-makers and other partners can use to compare and learn front different integrative research approaches. This is a first step towards building a comprehensive understarding of how integration can contribute to better environmental outcomes. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *AUSTR GOV, 2004, BACK AUSTR AB FIND O *CRC PROG, 1999, GUID APPL 2000 SEL R *CRC PROGR, 2001, 2 YEAR REV GUID *DIR GEN RES, 2003, PROV IMPL INT PROJ B *EUR COMM, 2002, 6 FRAM PROGR BRIEF O *INT OC COMM, 2004, ICM BAS *LAND WAT AUSTR, 2001, STRAT R D PLAN 2001 *MDBC, 2004, INT CATCHM MAN POL S *MDBC, 2004, MURR DARL BAS IN OV *NATL RES COUNC BO, 2000, OUR COMM J TRANS SUS *UN ENV PROGR, 2003, SYNTH RESP STRENGTH *UN, 2002, REP WORLD SUMM SUST ARAM JD, 2004, HUM RELAT, V57, P379 BELLAMY J, 2002, INTEGRATED CATCHMENT BERKES F, 2003, NAVIGATING SOCIAL EC, V1, P1 BOSCH OJH, 2003, SYST RES BEHAV SCI, V20, P107 CALLON M, 2003, SCI INNOVATION RETHI, P30 CHAMBERS R, 1983, RURAL DEV PUTTING LA CICINSAIN B, 1998, INTEGRATED COASTAL O FRITZ JS, 1998, INT ENVIRON AFFAIR, V10, P173 FUNTOWICZ SO, 1993, FUTURES, V25, P739 GIBBONS M, 1994, NRE PROD KNOWLEDGE D HINCHCLIFFE F, 1999, FERTILE GROUND IMPAC HOLLING CS, 1978, UN ENV PROGR KATES RW, 2001, SCIENCE, V292, P641 KINZIG AP, 2000, EXECUTIVE SUMMARY NA MARTEN P, 1999, CLIMATE CHANGE INTEG MARTIN BR, 2003, SCI INNOVATION RETHI, P1 NOWOTNY H, 2001, RETHINKING SCI KNOWL QUINLAN T, 2004, ENVIRON SCI POLICY, V7, P537 RIP A, 1997, SOC SCI INFORM, V36, P615 SHINN T, 2002, SOC STUD SCI, V32, P599 SHOGREN JF, 2003, ENVIRON SCI POLICY, V6, P233 STEEL B, 2004, ENVIRON SCI POLICY, V7, P1 WEINGART P, 1997, SOC SCI INFORM, V36, P615 ZIMAN JM, 2000, REAL SCI WHAT IT IS NR 36 TC 3 J9 ENVIRON SCI POLICY BP 452 EP 463 PY 2005 VL 8 IS 5 GA 981HG UT ISI:000233077700002 ER PT J AU Doornkamp, JC TI Coastal flooding, global warming and environmental management SO JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT LA English DT Review C1 Univ Nottingham, Dept Geog, Nottingham NG7 2RD, England. RP Doornkamp, JC, Univ Nottingham, Dept Geog, Nottingham NG7 2RD, England. AB A review of the difficulties associated with the definition of coastal flood frequencies and magnitudes leads to a recognition that there is considerable doubt in many parts of the world as to the precise nature of this particular hazard. Similarly, a review of the sea-level measurements that have been used to indicate a response to global warming shows that there is uncertainty about the amount of other controlling influences. What is clear; however are that past management decisions about human endeavours in the coastal zone (including flood defences, occupance of flood-prone lands, extraction of ground water and natural gas) have had an impact on relative land and sea levels and have done more to increase the risk of coastal flooding than can be assigned so far to global warming. In addition, these changes induced by human activity may render inappropriate calculations of coastal-flood frequencies based on historical records since the latter relate to a period of time when the controls on flooding may have been very different. (C) 1998 Academic Press Limited. 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ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS LA English DT Article C1 UNIV OXFORD,ENVIRONM CHANGE UNIT,OXFORD OX1 3TB,ENGLAND. UNIV CALIF BERKELEY,DEPT GEOG,BERKELEY,CA 94720. RP BOHLE, HG, UNIV FREIBURG,INST CULT GEOG,W-7800 FREIBURG,GERMANY. AB Coping with climatic variations or future climate change must be rooted In a full understanding of the complex structures and causes of present vulnerability, and how it may evolve over the coming decades. A theory of the social vulnerability of food insecurity draws upon explanations in human ecology, expanded entitlements and political economy to map the risk of exposure to harmful perturbations, ability to cope with crises, and potential for recovery. Vulnerable socio-economic groups in Zimbabwe and the potential effects of climate change illustrate some of the applications of the theory. CR 1989, SOCIAL INDICATORS DE APPADURAI A, 1984, J ASIAN STUD, V43, P481 BLAIKIE PM, 1987, SOC LAND DEGRADATION BOHLE HG, 1993, PROGR HUMAN GEOGRAPH, V13, P43 CHAMBERS R, 1989, IDS B, V20, P1 CHEN RS, 1994, FOOD POLICY, V19 CHRISTENSEN G, 1992, 5 FOOD STUD GROUP WO CHRISTENSEN G, 1993, 7 FOOD STUD GROUP WO CURTIS D, 1988, PREVENTING FAMINE PO DOWNING TE, 1991, ASSESSING SOCIOECONO DOWNING TE, 1991, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V1, P365 DOWNING TE, 1992, 1 U OXF ENV CHANG UN DOWNING TE, 1993, COPING VULNERABILITY DREZE J, 1987, ECON PHILOS, V4, P57 FISCHER G, 1994, ENV CHANGE, V4, P49 GLEICK PH, 1993, WATER CRISIS GUIDE W GOVEREH J, 1991, MARKET REFORMS RES P HARRISS B, 1990, EC POLITICAL WE 1222, P2783 HOUGHTON JT, 1992, CLIMATE CHANGE 1992 LIVERMAN DM, 1990, GLOBAL ENV CHANGE CO, P27 MAGADZA CHD, 1994, FOOD POLICY, V19 MUDIMU G, 1990, FOOD SECURITY POLICI OFFE C, 1984, CONTRADICTIONS WELFA REILLY JM, 1994, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V4, P24 SCHNEIDER S, IN PRESS GLOBAL ENV SEN AK, 1981, POVERTY FAMINES ESSA, V1, P1 SEN AK, 1990, POLITICAL EC HUNGER, V1, P34 SWIFT J, 1989, IDS B, V20, P8 WATTS MJ, 1991, REV AFRICAN POLITICA, V51, P9 WATTS, 1988, PREVENTING FAMINE PO WOLFF R, 1987, EC MARXIAN VERSUS NE, P150 NR 31 TC 35 J9 GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANGE BP 37 EP 48 PY 1994 PD MAR VL 4 IS 1 GA NK750 UT ISI:A1994NK75000004 ER PT J AU Stallings, RA TI Weberian political sociology and sociological disaster studies SO SOCIOLOGICAL FORUM LA English DT Article C1 Univ So Calif, Sch Policy Planning & Dev, Los Angeles, CA 90089 USA. Univ So Calif, Dept Sociol, Los Angeles, CA 90089 USA. RP Stallings, RA, Univ So Calif, Sch Policy Planning & Dev, Los Angeles, CA 90089 USA. AB The specialized field of disaster studies seems to be moving farther away from mainstream sociology, to the detriment of both. For sociologists working in this field, application of Max Weber's political sociology is proposed as one way to reconnect their research with longstanding concerns of the discipline. Weber's political sociology contains a conflict model focusing on structured inequalities of class, status, and power. Its relevance to both contemporary sociology and sociological disaster studies is illustrated through a reexamination of one of the early classic studies of disaster. The paper concludes with an overview of Weber's thoughts about the role of values in research and a brief comparison of Weber's political sociology with alternative theories. 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RP Antonakos, AK, Univ Patras, Dept Geol, Rion 26500, Greece. AB The assessment of groundwater vulnerability to pollution has proved to be an effective tool for the delineation of protection zones in areas affected by groundwater contamination due to intensive fertilizer applications. By modifying and optimizing the well known and widely used DRASTIC model it was possible to predict the intrinsic vulnerability to pollution as well as the groundwater pollution risk more accurately. This method incorporated the use of simple statistical and geostatistical techniques for the revision of the factor ratings and weightings of all the DRASTIC parameters under a GIS environment. The criterion for these modifications was the correlation coefficient of each parameter with the nitrates concentration in groundwater. On the basis of their statistical significance, some parameters were subtracted from the DRASTIC equation, while land use was considered as an additional DRASTIC parameter. 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Fdn Futuro Latinoamer, Quito, Ecuador. IUCN, CH-1196 Gland, Switzerland. UN, Millennium Project, New York, NY 10017 USA. RP Melnick, DJ, Columbia Univ, Ctr Environm Res & Conservat, 1200 Amsterdam Ave, New York, NY 10027 USA. CR MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 *UN MILL PROJ, 2005, ENV HUM WELL BEING P BRUCE N, 2000, B WORLD HEALTH ORGAN, V78, P1078 BURKE L, 2000, PILOT ANAL GLOBAL EC DASZAK P, 2002, CONSERVATION MED ECO FEDSON DS, 2003, CLIN INFECT DIS, V36, P1562 KOJIMA M, 2001, 508 WORLD BANK LOGIUDICE K, 2003, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V100, P567 MANGA L, 1995, ANN SOC BELG MED TR, V75, P129 MOLYNEUX DH, 1997, ANN TROP MED PARASIT, V91, P827 NORRIS DE, 2004, ECOHEALTH, V1, P19 PATZ JA, 2002, CONSERVATION MED ECO PATZ JA, 2004, ENVIRON HEALTH PERSP, V112, P1092 PAULY D, 1998, SCIENCE, V279, P860 PEARL M, 2004, HUMAN I CAPACITY BUI ROBERTS CM, 2002, SCIENCE, V295, P1280 SODHI NS, 2004, TRENDS ECOL EVOL, V19, P654 TAYLOR LH, 2001, PHILOS T ROY SOC B, V356, P983 VASCONCELOS PFC, 2001, CAD SAUDE PUBLICA S, V17, P155 WALSH JF, 1993, PARASITOLOGY, V106, P55 NR 20 TC 2 J9 LANCET BP 723 EP 725 PY 2005 PD FEB 19 VL 365 IS 9460 GA 898SP UT ISI:000227096800031 ER PT J AU Tao, FL Yokozawa, M Hayashi, Y Lin, ED TI A perspective on water resources in China: Interactions between climate change and soil degradation SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 Chinese Acad Agr Sci, Inst Agr Environm & Sustainable Dev, Beijing 100081, Peoples R China. Natl Inst Agroenvironm Sci, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 3058604, Japan. RP Tao, FL, Chinese Acad Agr Sci, Inst Agr Environm & Sustainable Dev, Beijing 100081, Peoples R China. AB Water is one of the most critical resources in China. Climate change and soil degradation will be two major, interrelated environmental challenges faced by managers of water resources in coming decades. In this study, we used a water-balance model and updated databases to assess the interacting impacts of climate change and soil degradation on China's future water resources. We plotted the spatial pattern of changes in actual and potential evapotranspiration, soil moisture deficits, and surface runoff across China in the 2020s using a resolution of 0.5degrees latitude and longitude under scenarios based on climate change, soil degradation, and a combination of the two. The results showed that climate change would affect the magnitude and spatial pattern of water resources on a national scale. Some regions in central, southwestern, and northeastern China would become more vulnerable to disastrous drought and floods as a result of soil degradation. Under the combined impacts of climate change and soil degradation, soil moisture deficits would increase most in central, western, and southwestern China; surface runoff would increase most in southeastern China. More detailed process-based models are needed to capture feedback mechanisms more effectively. CR *FAO, 1992, REP EXP CONS REV FAO *IPCC, 1996, SCI CLI CHANG CONTR, P572 WATSON RT, 1998, REGIONAL IMPACTS CLI, V1, P1 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 ARNELL NW, 1999, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V9, S51 BRYANT NA, 1990, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V17, P243 BUDYKO MI, 1956, TEPLOVOI BALANS ZEMN, P255 CHANG J, 1970, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V60, P340 DUNNE KA, 1996, INT J CLIMATOL, V16, P841 EVANS TE, 1996, GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANG, P248 FEDDEMA JJ, 1999, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V42, P561 FENG Q, 2001, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V48, P535 FISCHER G, 2000, GLOBAL AGRO ECOLOGIC LEGATES DR, 1990, INT J CLIMATOL, V10, P111 LEGATES DR, 1990, THEOR APPL CLIMATOL, V41, P11 LEGATES DR, 1992, GEOGR REV, V82, P253 LEGATES DR, 1995, INT J CLIMATOL, V15, P237 LYNDEN GWJ, 1997, ASSESSMENT STATUS HU MABBUTT JA, 1989, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V15, P191 MIDDLETON NJ, 1992, WORLD ATLAS DESERTIF, P90 NEW M, 1999, J CLIMATE, V12, P829 NICHOLSON SE, 1988, PROG PHYS GEOG, V12, P36 OLDEMAN LR, 1988, 884 ISRIC OLDEMAN LR, 1991, WORLD MAP STATUS HUM OROPEZAMOTA JL, 1995, J SOIL WATER CONSERV, V50, P523 PENMAN HL, 1948, P ROY SOC LOND A MAT, V193, P120 PIERCE FJ, 1994, SOIL EROSION RES MET, P235 QIAN WH, 2001, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V50, P419 TAO F, 2003, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V118, P251 TAO FL, 2003, AMBIO, V32, P295 THORNTHWAITE CW, 1948, GEOGR REV, V38, P55 VARIS O, 2001, GEOMORPHOLOGY, V41, P93 WILLIAM MJ, 1996, INTERACTIONS DESERTI, P270 WILLIAMS JR, 1981, J SOIL WATER CONSERV, V36, P82 WILLMOTT CJ, 1985, J CLIMATOL, V5, P589 NR 35 TC 0 J9 CLIMATIC CHANGE BP 169 EP 197 PY 2005 PD JAN VL 68 IS 1-2 GA 899ZF UT ISI:000227183700010 ER PT J AU Karl, HA Susskind, LE Wallace, KH TI A dialogue not a diatribe - Effective integration of science and policy through joint fact finding SO ENVIRONMENT LA English DT Article C1 US Geol Survey, Washington, DC USA. MIT, Environm Policy & Planning Grp, Dept Urban Studies & Planning, Cambridge, MA 02139 USA. RP Karl, HA, US Geol Survey, Washington, DC USA. CR 2001, FUTURE ROLES OPPORTU, P179 *NRC, 1999, OUR COMM JOURN TRANS, P144 *US DOI, STRAT PLAIN FY 2003 ANDREWS CJ, 2002, HUMBLE ANAL PRACTICE, P200 BEIERLE TC, 2003, EVALUATING DISPUTE R BRYAN TA, 2004, SOC NATUR RESOUR, V17, P881 BUSH V, 1945, SCI ENDLESS FRONTIER CASH DW, 2003, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V100, P8086 EHRMANN J, 1999, CONSENSUS BUILDING H, P375 FULLER B, 2006, THESIS MIT JACOBS KL, 2003, ENVIRONMENT, V45, P30 KATES RW, 2001, SCIENCE, V292, P641 KEMMIS D, 2002, ISSUES SCI TECHNOLOG KOONTZ TM, 2004, COLLABORATIVE ENV MA, P210 LANE N, 2006, SCIENCE, V312, P1847 LAYZER JA, DEEP FREEZE IMPACT S LAYZER JA, 2002, ENV CASE TRANSLATING, P209 MACHACEK J, 2006, GANNETT NEWS SE 1127 MCCREARY S, 2001, COAST MANAGE, V29, P183 MCCREARY S, 2001, MEDIATION Q, V18 MCCREARY S, 2003, MEDIATION Q, V18 MCMAHON M, 1994, EARLY AM TECHNOLOGY, P114 MCVICKER G, 2000, AUR PARTN NAT M CHAR MILLER A, 1999, ENV PROBLEM SOLVING OZAWA C, 1997, EOS T AM GEOPHYS UN, V78, P598 PEYSER J, 2005, THESIS MIT RITTEL HWJ, 1973, POLICY SCI, V4, P155 SARWITZ D, 2000, PREDICTION SCI DECIS, P405 SARWITZ P, 2006, ENVIRONMENT, V48, P8 SCARLETT PL, 2004, JOINT FACT FINDING I SUSSKIND LE, 1987, BREAKING IMPASSE CON SUSSKIND LE, 2001, BETTER ENV POLICY ST, P187 SUSSKIND LE, 2006, BREAKING ROBERTS RUL, P222 WONDOLLOCK JM, 2000, MAKING COLLABORATION ZUCKERMAN H, 1988, HDB SOCIOLOGY NR 35 TC 1 J9 ENVIRONMENT BP 20 EP + PY 2007 PD JAN-FEB VL 49 IS 1 GA 128YC UT ISI:000243694600005 ER PT J AU Cutter, SL Solecki, WD TI Setting environmental justice in space and place: Acute and chronic airborne toxic releases in the southeastern United States SO URBAN GEOGRAPHY LA English DT Article C1 FLORIDA STATE UNIV,DEPT GEOG,TALLAHASSEE,FL 32306. RP Cutter, SL, UNIV S CAROLINA,DEPT GEOG,COLUMBIA,SC 29208. AB This paper compares the spatial distribution and character of two categories of risk-chronic toxic releases (small-scale, long-term exposures) and acute releases (large-scale, short-term events)-for the southeastern United States from 1987-1990. Our purpose is to identify whether lower-income minority counties are disproportionately at risk from these airborne releases of extremely hazardous substances. We found a fairly uniform distribution of chronic releases across the region, whereas the acute releases exhibited a more clustered pattern in the Carolinas, Florida, and Alabama. A correlation analysis failed to indicate any association between the racial composition of the county and the frequency of airborne toxic releases, yet wealth indicators were positively associated with the frequency of releases, When examining these in more detail, a principal components analysis yielded a hierarchy of toxic counties: (1) high-exposure urban counties, (2) high-exposure African American counties, (3) low-release counties, (4) high-acute-release counties. A further refinement of the analysis identified subgroupings of counties, but again we failed to find conclusive evidence of inequalities. Instead, we conclude that for the Southeast, there are a multitude of processes at work in producing the differential toxic releases reflected in the southern riskscape. More research is needed on the underlying sociospatial processes that give rise to the production of hazardousness of places and their populations. CR *UN CHURCH CHRIST, 1987, TOX WAST RAC NAT REP *US EPA, 1993, 745R92003 *US EPA, 1994, 749C94001 *US GEN ACC OFF, 1983, SIT HAZ WAST LANDF T ADEOLA FO, 1994, ENVIRON BEHAV, V26, P99 ANDERTON DL, 1994, DEMOGRAPHY, V31, P229 ANDERTON DL, 1994, EVALUATION REV, V18, P123 BERRY BJL, 1977, SOCIAL BURDENS ENV P BLAIKIE PM, 1994, RISK NATURAL HAZARDS, V1, P1 BRYANT B, 1992, RACE INCIDENCE ENV H BULLARD RD, 1983, SOCIOL INQ, V53, P273 BULLARD RD, 1990, DUMPING DIXIE RACE C BULLARD RD, 1992, RACE INCIDENCE ENV H, P82 BULLARD RD, 1993, CONFRONTING ENV RACI BULLARD RD, 1994, ENVIRONMENT, V36, P10 BULLARD RD, 1994, ENVIRONMENT, V36, P39 BULLARD RD, 1994, UNEQUAL PROTECTION E BURKE LM, 1993, GEO INFO SYSTEMS OCT, P44 COBB JC, 1984, IND SO SOC 1877-1984 COLCLOUGH G, 1988, RURAL SOCIOL, V53, P73 CREWMEYER K, 1994, S CAROLINA POLICY FO, V5, P25 CUTTER S, 1995, PROGR HUMAN GEOGRAPH, V19, P107 CUTTER SL, 1989, PROF GEOGR, V41, P149 CUTTER SL, 1991, URBAN GEOGR, V12, P417 CUTTER SL, 1993, LIVING RISK GEOGRAPH CUTTER SL, 1994, BUSINESS EC REV, V41, P3 CUTTER SL, 1994, ENV RISKS HAZARDS CUTTER SL, 1996, RISK ANAL, V16, P517 GEISER K, 1983, SCI PEOPLE SUM, P13 GLICKMAN TS, 1994, RENEWABLE RESOURCES, V12, P17 GOLDMAN BA, 1994, TOXIC WASTES RACE RE GOTTLIEB R, 1993, FORCING SPRING TRANS GOTTLIEB R, 1993, RISK ISSUES HLTH SAF, V4, P235 GOTTLIEB R, 1994, ENV CONTAMINANTS HLT HIRD JA, 1993, J POLICY ANAL MANAG, V12, P323 HOLM DM, 1994, THESIS U S CAROLINA KIRBY A, 1990, NOTHING FEAR RISKS H KRIMSKY S, 1992, SOCIAL THEORIES RISK KRUVANT W, 1974, INCIDENCE POLLUTION LAKE RW, 1995, ANN M ASS AM GEOGR C LIVERMAN DM, 1986, CITIES MAY, P142 MAYO DG, 1991, ACCEPTABLE EVIDENCE MCMASTER RB, 1988, P 3 INT S SPAT DAT H, P143 MITCHELL JK, 1989, GEOGR REV, V79, P391 MITCHELL JK, 1990, NOTHING FEAR RISKS H, P131 MOHAI P, 1992, RACE INCIDENCE ENV H, P163 PALM RI, 1990, NATURAL HAZARDS INTE PERLIN SA, 1995, ENVIRON SCI TECHNOL, V29, P69 PIJAWKA KD, 1985, DANGEROUS PROPERTIES SCHWAB J, 1994, DEEPER SHADES GREEN SOLECKI WD, 1992, J RURAL STUD, V8, P1 STOCKWELL JR, 1993, RISK ANAL, V13, P155 SZASZ A, 1994, ECOPOPULISM TOXIC WA WINSBERG M, 1994, AM DEMOGRAPHICS FEB, P44 ZIMMERMAN R, 1993, RISK ANAL, V13, P649 ZIMMERMAN R, 1994, FORDHAM URBAN LAW J, V21, P633 NR 56 TC 22 J9 URBAN GEOGR BP 380 EP 399 PY 1996 PD JUL 1 VL 17 IS 5 GA VK465 UT ISI:A1996VK46500002 ER PT J AU Reid, P Vogel, C TI Living and responding to multiple stressors in South Africa - Glimpses from KwaZulu-Natal SO GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS LA English DT Article C1 Univ Witwatersrand, Sch Archaeol Geog & Environm Studies, ZA-2050 Johannesburg, South Africa. RP Vogel, C, Univ Witwatersrand, Sch Archaeol Geog & Environm Studies, Post Bag 3, ZA-2050 Johannesburg, South Africa. AB Rural, resource-poor communities currently face a number of stressors that curtail livelihood options and reduce overall quality of life. Climate stress in southern Africa could potentially further threaten the livelihoods of such communities. Inappropriate response and adaptation options to risks, including climate stress, could further undermine development efforts in the region. The design and effective implementation of strategies to improve coping and adaptation to possible future risks cannot be undertaken without a detailed assessment of current response options to various risks. By using the Sustainable Livelihoods Framework, this pilot study identifies some of the strategies and constraints to secure livelihoods that are currently being used by small-scale farmers in the Muden area of KwaZulu-Natal. The role and perception of climate risks in relation to a variety of other constraints and risks in the area are also examined. Health status, lack of information and ineffective institutional structures and processes are shown to be some of the key factors aggravating current response options and overall development initiatives with potential negative outcomes for future adaptation to periods of possible heightened climate stress. (C) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *AFR DEV BANK, 2002, 8 C PART UN FRAM CON *DFID, 1999, SUST LIV GUID SHEETS *IDS, 2004, CLIM CHANG DEV, V35 WATSON RT, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, V1, P1 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 *IUCN WORLD CONS U, 2004, SUST LIV CLIM CHANG *KZN, 2004, KWAZULUNATAL DROUGT *UNDP, 2004, RED DIS RISK CHALL D *UNEP, 1998, UN ENV PROGR I ENV S *UNEP, 2001, ASS HUM VULN ENV CHA *UNFCCC, 2002, CONTR 8 C PART UN FR ADGER WN, 2003, PROGR DEV STUDIES, V3, P179 ADGER WN, 2005, CR GEOSCI, V337, P399 AYSAN Y, 1993, NATURAL DISASTERS PR BERKES F, 1998, LINKING SOCIAL ECOLO, V1, P1 BLAIKIE PM, 1994, RISK NATURAL HAZARDS, V1, P1 BOHLE HG, 2001, IHDP UPDATE, V2, P3 BOHLE HG, 1994, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V4, P37 CANNON T, 2000, FLOODS, V1, P45 CARNEY D, 1998, DFIDS NAT RES ADV C CARPENTER SR, 2001, ECOSYSTEMS, V4, P765 CASH DW, 2001, SCI TECHNOL HUM VAL, V26, P431 CHAMBERS R, 1987, SEASONAL DIMENSIONS CHAMBERS R, 1989, IDS B, V20, P1 CHAMBERS R, 1992, 296 IDS DEVEREUX S, 2003, FORUM FOOD SECURITY DEVEREUX S, 2004, IDS BULL-I DEV STUD, V35, P22 DLAMINI DJM, 2004, 1155104 WRC DOWNING TE, 2003, 3 APF UN DEV PROGR DOWNING TE, 2004, 10 SESS C PART UN FR DUBE LT, 2003, WATER SA, V29, P208 FISCHER G, 2002, CLIMATE CHANGE AGR V FUSSEL HM, 2005, IN PRESS CLIMATIC CH, P1 GILHAM SW, 1997, 23 WEDC C DURB S AFR, P415 GIROT P, 2002, UNDP EXP GROUP M INT HILHORST D, 2004, VULNERABILITY DISAST, P1 HUQ S, 2004, IDS BULL-I DEV STUD, V35, P15 JOUBERT A, 1997, J CLIMATOL, V17, P291 KASPERSON RE, 2001, CLIMATE VARIABILITY KASPERSON RE, 2001, INT WORKSH VULN GLOB KELLY PM, 1999, 9907 GEC U E ANGL CT KELLY PM, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V47, P325 LEGAL P, 2003, DEP AGR 28 JUL 2003 LEICHENKO RM, 2002, MITIGATION ADAPTATIO, V7, P1 MANO R, 2003, IDENTIFYING POLICY D OBRIEN KL, 2003, COPING CLIMATE VARIA OBRIEN KL, 2000, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V10, P221 PELLING M, 2005, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V15, P308 PIELKE RA, 1998, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V8, P159 POLSKY C, 2003, ASSESSING VULNERABIL REID P, 2005, CLIMATE CHANGE WATER, P395 SCHULZE R, 2005, 1430005 RSA WRC SCOONES I, 2000, 72 IDS SCOONES I, 2004, IDS B, V3, P114 WALKER BH, 2002, CONSERV ECOL, V6, P1 WATTS MJ, 1993, PROG HUM GEOG, V17, P43 WISNER B, 1993, GEOJOURNAL, V30, P127 WISNER B, 1995, GEOJOURNAL, V37, P335 WISNER B, 2004, VULNERABILITY DISAST, P183 YOUNG OR, 2002, I DIMENSIONS ENV CHA NR 60 TC 1 J9 GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANGE BP 195 EP 206 PY 2006 PD MAY VL 16 IS 2 GA 051NM UT ISI:000238167800008 ER PT J AU Harrison, GP Wallace, AR TI Climate sensitivity of marine energy SO RENEWABLE ENERGY LA English DT Article C1 Univ Edinburgh, Sch Engn & Elect, Edinburgh EH9 3JL, Midlothian, Scotland. RP Harrison, GP, Univ Edinburgh, Sch Engn & Elect, Mayfield Rd, Edinburgh EH9 3JL, Midlothian, Scotland. AB Marine energy has a significant role to play in lowering carbon emissions within the energy sector. Paradoxically, it may be susceptible to changes in climate that will result from rising carbon emissions. Wind patterns are expected to change and this will alter wave regimes. Despite a lack of definite proof of a link to global warming, wind and wave conditions have been changing over the past few decades. Changes in the wind and wave climate will affect offshore wind and wave energy conversion: where the resource is constrained, production and economic performance may suffer; alternatively, stormier climates may create survival issues. Here, a relatively simple sensitivity study is used to quantify how changes in mean wind speed-as a proxy for wider climate change-influence wind and wave energy production and economics. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *DEP TRADS IDN, 2002, REN OBL 2002 *GRAND HASS PARTN, 2001, SCOTL REN RES *HLTH SAF EX, 2001, WIND WAV FREQ DISTR *VEST WIND SYST A, 2004, V9030 MW PROD BROCH BACON S, 1991, INT J CLIMATOL, V11, P545 BACON S, 1993, INT J CLIMATOL, V13, P423 BAKER RW, 1990, SOL ENERGY, V45, P285 BRESLOW PB, 2002, RENEW ENERG, V27, P585 CARTER DJT, 1988, NATURE, V332, P494 GREVEMEYER I, 2000, NATURE, V408, P349 GUNTHER H, 1998, GLOBAL ATMOS OCEAN S, V6, P121 HARRISON GP, 2002, IEE P-GENER TRANSM D, V149, P249 HULME M, 2002, CLIMATE CHANGE SCENA JEFFREY DC, 1978, 4 YEAR REPORT EDINBU MANWELL JF, 2002, WIND ENERGY EXPLAINE MOLLISON D, 1976, NATURE, V263, P223 MOLLISON D, 1986, HYDRODYNAMICS OCEAN, P133 PIERSON WJ, 1964, J GEOPHYS RES, V69, P5181 POWER PB, 2004, COST GENERATING ELEC SALTER SH, 2003, COMMUNICATION SEGAL M, 2001, RENEW ENERG, V24, P235 SWAIL VR, 2000, 6 INT WORKSH WAV HIN THORPE TW, 1999, ETSUR120 DEP TRAD IN WANG XLL, 2004, J CLIMATE, V17, P2368 WATSON GM, 2001, PREDICTING OFFSHORE WOOLF DK, 2002, J GEOPHYS RES, V109, P3145 YOUNG IR, 1996, ATLAS OCEANS WIND WA NR 27 TC 1 J9 RENEWABLE ENERGY BP 1801 EP 1817 PY 2005 PD OCT VL 30 IS 12 GA 946DV UT ISI:000230553400002 ER PT J AU CHURCHILL, RR HUTCHINSON, DM TI FLOOD HAZARD IN RATNAPURA, SRI-LANKA - INDIVIDUAL ATTITUDES VS COLLECTIVE ACTION SO GEOFORUM LA English DT Article RP CHURCHILL, RR, MIDDLEBURY COLL,DEPT GEOG,MIDDLEBURY,VT 05753. CR 1978, FERGUSONS CEYLON DIR *S L DEP CENS STAT, 1972, 1971 CENS POP *S L RATN TOWN GOV, 1979, FLOOD DAM ADAMS RLA, 1973, ECON GEOGR, V49, P287 BEYER JL, 1974, NATURAL HAZARDS LOCA, P265 BURTON I, 1964, NAT RESOUR J, V3, P412 BURTON I, 1970, 16 U TOR NAT HAZ RES BURTON I, 1978, ENV HAZARD, V1, P1 DWORKIN J, 1974, 26 U COL NAT HAZ RES HAAS JE, 1977, RECONSTRUCTION FOLLO HARDING DM, 1974, NATURAL HAZARDS LOCA, P43 HEWAPATHIRANE DU, 1978, THESIS U COLORADO BO ISLAM MA, 1971, 18 U TOR NAT HAZ RES KATES RW, 1962, 78 U CHIC DEP GEOGR KATES RW, 1963, PAPERS P REGIONAL SC, V11, P217 KATES RW, 1967, ENV PERCEPTION BEHAV, P60 KATES RW, 1970, INT SOCIAL SCI J, V22, P648 KATES RW, 1975, LANDSCAPE ARCHIT APR, P165 KIRKBY AV, 1974, NATURAL HAZARDS LOCA, P119 LACHMAN R, 1960, SCIENCE, V131, P1095 MCPHERSON HJ, 1977, ANN REGIONAL SCI, V11, P25 MITCHELL JK, 1974, PERSPECTIVES ENV, P290 MOLINE NT, 1974, NATURAL HAZARDS LOCA, P52 PAYNE RJ, 1981, ENVIRON BEHAV, V13, P461 RAMACHANDRAN R, 1974, NATURAL HAZARDS LOCA, P36 SAARINEN TF, 1976, ENV PERCEPTION PLANN SHAH BV, 1983, DISASTERS, V7, P202 SIMON JL, 1978, BASIC RES METHODS SO SONNENFELD J, 1969, P ASS AM GEOGR, V1, P136 THOMPSON SA, 1982, 45 U COL NAT HAZ RES TUAN YF, 1974, TOPOPHILIA STUDY ENV WHITE GF, 1961, T AM SOC CIVIL ENG, V126, P63 WHITE GF, 1964, 93 U CHIC DEP GEOGR WHITE GF, 1974, NATURAL HAZARDS LOCA, P3 NR 34 TC 2 J9 GEOFORUM BP 517 EP 524 PY 1984 VL 15 IS 4 GA TY244 UT ISI:A1984TY24400002 ER PT J AU Bohle, HG Adhikari, J TI Rural livelihoods at risk how nepalese farmers cope with food insecurity SO MOUNTAIN RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT LA English DT Article C1 S Asia Inst, Heidelberg, Germany. RP Bohle, HG, S Asia Inst, Heidelberg, Germany. AB Since the early 1990s, Nepal has changed from a net exporter to a net importer of food. Nearly half of Nepal's districts have become deficient in food. The situation is most serious for peripheral mountain regions of the Middle Hills. The paper concentrates on food deficient village communities in fragile mountain tracts of Nepal. It is based on household surveys in six peripheral mountain villages. More than fifty percent of all households are not even self-sufficient in food for six months in a year. The project then focuses on the coping strategies of the mountain farmers which aim at bridging this gap in food supply The analysis reveals highly diverse, complex, and innovative strategies which require high degrees of mobility and activity. There is a general tendency that these strategies are increasingly oriented towards markets. It becomes clear that the growing tendency towards external linkages offers new potentialities, but, at the same time, new risks for the mountain population. The project therefore examines the major determinants which make specific coping strategies more or less successful. In addition to caste and ethnicity, household structures (including work participation patterns, gender composition, age structure, and health status) emerge as most decisive factors. Despite all efforts, the majority of the mountain population, nevertheless, is severely undernourished. For an increasing proportion of the village people, survival has becomes a permanent crisis. CR *ACT AID NEP, 1994, UNPUB RUR LIV SURV *CENTR BUR STAT, 1995, STAT YB NEP 1995 *IDRC, 1990, UNPUB SOILS SED ER F *MS SWAM RES FDN, 1992, ANN REP MS SWAM RES *NAT PLANN COMM, 1993, OUTL POV ALL POL PRO, P1 *NEP AGR PERSP, 1995, UNPUB NEP AGR PERSP *UNDP, 1997, HUM DEV REP UNDP ADHIKARI J, 1995, BEGINNINGS AGRARIAN BLAIKIE PM, 1994, RISK NATURAL HAZARDS, V1, P1 CAMERON J, 1995, UNPUB FOOD SECURITY CHAMBERS R, 1989, IDS B, V20, P1 DAHL SL, 1993, UNPUB INDIAN GEOGRAP, V68, P21 GURUGHARANA KK, 1995, EC J NEPAL, V18, P1 GURUGHARANA KK, 1995, NAT SEM DEV STRAT NE KOIRALA G, 1992, UNPUB NAT SEM POV AL PYAKURYAL KN, 1995, NEPALESE FARMING SYS PYAKURYAL KN, 1995, POVERTY NEPAL BACKGR PYAKURYAL KN, 1995, UNPUB NEPALESE FARMI SERALGEDIN I, 1996, SUSTAINABILITY WEALT SWIFT J, 1989, IDS B, V20, P8 WATTS MJ, 1993, PROG HUM GEOG, V17, P43 NR 21 TC 3 J9 MT RES DEV BP 321 EP 332 PY 1998 PD NOV VL 18 IS 4 GA 142MN UT ISI:000077204400003 ER PT J AU Lobell, DB Bala, G Duffy, PB TI Biogeophysical impacts of cropland management changes on climate SO GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS LA English DT Article C1 Lawrence Livermore Natl Lab, Energy & Environm Directorate, Livermore, CA 94550 USA. RP Lobell, DB, Lawrence Livermore Natl Lab, Energy & Environm Directorate, 7000 East Ave,L-638, Livermore, CA 94550 USA. AB It is well known that expansion of agriculture into natural ecosystems can have important climatic consequences, but changes occurring within existing croplands also have the potential to effect local and global climate. To better understand the impacts of cropland management practices, we used the NCAR CAM3 general circulation model coupled to a slab-ocean model to simulate climate change under extreme scenarios of irrigation, tillage, and crop productivity. Compared to a control scenario, increases in irrigation and leaf area index and reductions in tillage all have a physical cooling effect by causing increases in planetary albedo. The cooling is most pronounced for irrigation, with simulated local cooling up to similar to 8 degrees C and global land surface cooling of 1.3 degrees C. Increases in soil albedo through reduced tillage are found to have a global cooling effect ( similar to 0.2 degrees C) comparable to the biogeochemical cooling from reported carbon sequestration potentials. By identifying the impacts of extreme scenarios at local and global scales, this study effectively shows the importance of considering different aspects of crop management in the development of climate models, analysis of observed climate trends, and design of policy intended to mitigate climate change. CR MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 ABROL IP, 2005, CONSERVATION AGR STA ADEGOKE JO, 2003, MON WEATHER REV, V131, P556 ANDALES AA, 2000, AGR SYST, V66, P69 BETTS RA, 2001, ATMOS SCI LETT, V2, P39 BONAN GB, 1997, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V37, P449 BONAN GB, 2002, GLOBAL BIOGEOCHEM CY, V16 BOUCHER O, 2004, CLIM DYNAM, V22, P597 BROVKIN V, 1999, GLOBAL ECOL BIOGEOGR, V8, P509 CHASE TN, 2001, J GEOPHYS RES-ATMOS, V106, P31685 COLLINS WD, 2004, NCARTN464STR COOLEY HS, 2005, J GEOPHYS RES-ATMOS, V110 DEFRIES RS, 2002, GLOBAL CHANGE BIOL, V8, P438 DERIDDER K, 1998, J APPL METEOROL, V37, P1470 DIRMEYER PA, 2005, 192 COLA NASA GODD S FEDDEMA JJ, 2005, SCIENCE, V310, P1674 GIBBARD S, 2005, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V32 GOVINDASAMY B, 2001, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V28, P291 GREGORY PJ, 2002, AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON, V88, P279 KOSTER RD, 2004, SCIENCE, V305, P1138 LAL R, 2004, SCIENCE, V304, P1623 LOVELAND TR, 2000, INT J REMOTE SENS, V21, P1303 MAHMOOD R, 2004, INT J CLIMATOL, V24, P311 MAIERREIMER E, 1987, CLIM DYNAM, V2, P63 MATTHEWS HD, 2003, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V30 MATTHIAS AD, 2000, SOIL SCI SOC AM J, V64, P1035 MEYER WB, 1992, ANNU REV ECOL SYST, V23, P39 MYHRE G, 2003, J CLIMATE, V16, P1511 OLESON K, 2004, NCARTN461STR PIELKE RA, 2001, REV GEOPHYS, V39, P151 SITCH S, 2005, GLOBAL BIOGEOCHEM CY, V19 TIAN Y, 2004, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V31 NR 32 TC 2 J9 GEOPHYS RES LETT PY 2006 PD MAR 23 VL 33 IS 6 GA 026NE UT ISI:000236344900008 ER PT J AU Cash, DW TI Innovative natural resource management: Nebraska's model for linking science and decisionmaking SO ENVIRONMENT LA English DT Article C1 Harvard Univ, John F Kennedy Sch Govt, Ctr Int Dev, Cambridge, MA 02138 USA. Harvard Univ, John F Kennedy Sch Govt, Belfer Ctr Sci & Int Affairs, Cambridge, MA 02138 USA. RP Cash, DW, Harvard Univ, John F Kennedy Sch Govt, Ctr Int Dev, Cambridge, MA 02138 USA. CR *NAT RES COUNC COM, 1996, COLL AGR LAND GRANT *NB DEP RES, 2000, NEBR RES DEV FUND BI *SOC LEARN GROUP, 2001, LEARN MAN GLOB ENV R *WORLD BANK, 1999, WORLD DEV REP 1999 2 BELLON MR, 2001, PARTICIPATORY RES ME BERKES F, 1998, LINKING SOCIAL ECOLO, V1, P1 CASH DW, 2001, SCI TECHNOL HUM VAL, V26, P431 CASH DW, 2003, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V100, P8086 FOLKE C, 1998, PROBLEM FIT ECOSYSTE GIERYN TF, 1995, HDB SCI TECHNOLOGY S GUSTON DH, 1996, SCI PUBLIC POLICY, V24 JASANOFF SS, 1987, SOC STUD SCI, V17, P195 JENKINS HM, 1975, HIST NEBRASKAS NATUR KASPERSON JX, 1995, REGIONS RISK, V1, P1 KATES RW, ICSU SERIES SCI SUST, V9 KATES RW, 2001, SCIENCE, V292, P641 KROMM DE, 1992, GROUNDWATER EXPLOITA MCGUIRE VL, 1997, WATER LEVEL CHANGES MCGUIRE VL, 2000, WATER LEVEL CHANGES MITCHELL R, IN PRESS GLOBAL ENV OPIE J, 2000, OGALLALA WATER DRY L STAR SL, 1989, SOC STUD SCI, V19, P387 TURNER BL, 2003, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V100, P8074 NR 23 TC 0 J9 ENVIRONMENT BP 8 EP 20 PY 2003 PD DEC VL 45 IS 10 GA 749MP UT ISI:000186924800003 ER PT J AU Potschin, MB Haines-Young, RH TI Landscapes and sustainability SO LANDSCAPE AND URBAN PLANNING LA English DT Editorial Material C1 Univ Nottingham, Sch Geog, Ctr Environm Management, Nottingham NG7 2RD, England. RP Potschin, MB, Univ Nottingham, Sch Geog, Ctr Environm Management, Univ Pk, Nottingham NG7 2RD, England. CR ANTROP M, 2006, LANDSCAPE URBAN PLAN, V75, P187 BAILEY N, 2006, LANDSCAPE URBAN PLAN, V75, P227 BLASCHKE T, 2006, LANDSCAPE URBAN PLAN, V75, P198 BRUNCKHORST D, 2006, LANDSCAPE URBAN PLAN, V75, P265 COSGROVE D, 2002, HDB CULTURAL GEOGRAP, P249 CROW T, 2006, LANDSCAPE URBAN PLAN, V75, P282 DEGROOT R, 2006, LANDSCAPE URBAN PLAN, V75, P175 DEGROOT RS, 2002, ECOL ECON, V43, P393 FORMAN RTT, 1995, LAND MOSAICS ECOLOGY GALLOPIN GC, 2001, INT SOC SCI J, V53, P219 HAINESYOUNG R, 2000, FENNIA, V178, P7 HAINESYOUNG R, 2006, LANDSCAPE URBAN PLAN, V75, P244 KATES RW, 2000, 200033 BELF CTR SCI KATES RW, 2001, SCIENCE, V292, P641 KAYHKO N, 2006, LANDSCAPE URBAN PLAN, V75, P300 OPDAM P, 2006, LANDSCAPE URBAN PLAN, V75, P322 POTSCHIN M, 2006, LANDSCAPE URBAN PLAN, V75, P162 SWANWICK C, 2004, COUNTRYSIDE PLANNING, P109 TRESS B, 2001, LANDSCAPE URBAN PLAN, V57, P137 TRESS B, 2005, LANDSCAPENRES LANDSC NR 20 TC 1 J9 LANDSCAPE URBAN PLAN BP 155 EP 161 PY 2006 PD MAR 15 VL 75 IS 3-4 GA 014NX UT ISI:000235488000001 ER PT J AU Turner, MD TI Merging local and regional analyses of land-use change: The case of livestock in the Sahel SO ANNALS OF THE ASSOCIATION OF AMERICAN GEOGRAPHERS LA English DT Review C1 Int Livestock Res Ctr, Niamey, Niger. RP Turner, MD, Int Livestock Res Ctr, Niamey, Niger. AB This paper argues against the dichotomization of "regional" and "local" analyses of land-use change by environmental geographers. Such dichotomization has led regional analyses to unnecessarily exclude from consideration ecological, sociocultural, and political factors identified to be important in local studies, Simple rules of evidence that systematically label such factors as "locally specific" facilitate such exclusion. For example, gender relations in rural Africa, while shown in local studies to play an important role in land-use change, are often excluded from consideration in regional analyses. This study analyzes the causes behind the regionwide shift toward small stock (sheep and goats) in the Sahel, using demographic and transaction histories (1984-1994) of livestock owned by members of fifty-four households in western Niger. Changes in the composition of this livestock population replicate that observed across the region in direction and magnitude. An analysis of these data demonstrates that the shift in species composition is not driven by changes in price or livestock productivity. While species preferences of individual owners (controlled by wealth) have not changed over the period, the distribution of livestock ownership has changed, with smallholders and women controlling a larger fraction of aggregate livestock wealth. The gendered shift in livestock wealth is closely associated with struggles between men and women over their relative obligations to support the family. Women's situation within the household has led some to accumulate large herds of small stock. Key features of intrahousehold struggles contributing to the shift in livestock composition in Niger are common across the Sudano-Sahelian region. The broader implications of these findings for the analysis of regional changes in land use are discussed. 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1985, 9 LPU INT LIV CTR AF TOULMIN C, 1992, CATTLE WOMEN WELLS M TURNER BL, 1990, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V1, P14 TURNER BL, 1997, ECUMENE, V4, P196 TURNER M, 1993, ECON GEOGR, V69, P402 VANKEULEN H, 1990, AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON, V32, P177 VERMEER DE, 1981, GEOGR REV, V71, P281 VOH AA, 1989, ANIM REPROD SCI, V19, P191 WAGENAAR KT, 1986, 13 INT LIV CTR AFR WATTS MJ, 1983, INTERPRETATIONS CALA, P231 WATTS MJ, 1983, SILENT VIOLENCE FOOD WHITE C, 1990, PROPERTY POVERTY PEO, P240 WHITE F, 1983, VEGETATION AFRICA WHITEHEAD A, 1990, POLITICAL EC HUNGER, P427 WILLIAMS M, 1994, J HIST GEOGR, V20, P3 WILLIAMS TO, 1994, AGR SYST, V46, P227 WILLIAMS TO, 1995, LIVESTOCK SUSTAINABL, P393 WILSON RT, 1986, 14 ILCA INT LIV CTR WILSON RT, 1989, ANIM REPROD SCI, V20, P265 ZIMMERER K, 1996, CONCEPTS HUMAN GEOGR, P161 NR 119 TC 14 J9 ANN ASSN AMER GEOGR BP 191 EP 219 PY 1999 PD JUN VL 89 IS 2 GA 199MM UT ISI:000080486000001 ER PT J AU Steinberg, PE TI Political geography and the environment SO JOURNAL OF GEOGRAPHY LA English DT Article RP Steinberg, PE, BUCKNELL UNIV,DEPT GEOG,LEWISBURG,PA 17837. AB A new political geography has emerged that stresses the political conflict behind the production of space. This orientation in the subdiscipline constitutes a turn away from traditional political geography, where the emphasis had previously been on the spatial distribution of political phenomena. The ''new'' political geographic theory has been applied to the study of environmental issues, turning the attention of scholars to the political struggle behind the construction of nature as well as space. This article reviews how the new political geography of the environment (NPGE) perspective has impacted the study of such environmental phenomena as hazards, siting issues, human-land relationships, resources, development, and international environmental governance. It concludes by suggesting how the NPGE perspective can inform pedagogy in environmental education. CR *ED BOARD, 1982, POLTICAL GEOGRAPHY Q, V1, P1 ARDREY R, 1966, TERRITORIAL IMPERATI BLAIKIE PM, 1985, POLITICAL EC SOIL ER BRYANT RL, 1992, POLIT GEOGR, V11, P12 FITZSIMMONS M, 1989, ANTIPODE, V21, P106 GLASSNER M, 1991, POLITICAL GEOGRAPHY, V10, P422 HAAS P, 1993, I EARTH SOURCES EFFE HARVEY D, 1982, LIMITS CAPITAL HEIMAN MK, 1996, ANTIPODE, V28, P111 HEWITT K, 1983, INTERPRETATIONS CALA JACKSON WAD, 1964, POLITICS GEOGRAPHIC KUEHLS T, 1996, SOVEREIGN TERRITORY LEFEBVRE H, 1991, PRODUCTION SPACE MANZONI M, 1996, POLITICAL GEOGRAPHY, V15, P359 MURPHY C, 1994, INT ORG IND CHANGE G PEET R, 1985, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V75, P309 PEET R, 1996, LIBERATION ECOLOGIES PULIDO L, 1996, ENV EC JUSTICE 2 CHI ROBLES A, 1995, GLOB GOV, V1, P99 SACK R, 1986, HUMAN TERRITORIALITY SAUER C, 1981, SELECTED ESSAYS 1963, P78 SMITH K, 1992, ENV HAZARDS ASSESSIN SMITH N, 1984, UNEVEN DEV NATURE CA SOJA E, 1980, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V70, P207 SOJA EW, 1985, ENVIRON PLANN D, V3, P175 STEINBERG P, 1996, CRYSTAL PARK URBAN E STEINBERG P, 1997, SPACE TRANSPORT WORL SUSSKIND L, 1987, BREAKING IMPASSE CON TAYLOR P, 1996, ECON GEOGR, V72, P87 TAYLOR PJ, 1982, T I BRIT GEOGR, V7, P15 WHITE GF, 1975, ASSESSMENT RES NATUR, V1, P1 YOUNG O, 1989, INTERNATIONAL COOPER YOUNG O, 1996, GLOBAL ENV CHANGE IN ZACHER M, 1996, GOVERNING GLOBAL NET NR 34 TC 2 J9 J GEOGR BP 113 EP 118 PY 1997 PD MAR-APR VL 96 IS 2 GA WT414 UT ISI:A1997WT41400010 ER PT J AU KUMMER, DM TURNER, BL TI THE HUMAN CAUSES OF DEFORESTATION IN SOUTHEAST-ASIA SO BIOSCIENCE LA English DT Article C1 CLARK UNIV,GRAD SCH GEOG,WORCESTER,MA 01610. RP KUMMER, DM, GEORGE PERKINS MARSH INST,WORCESTER,MA 01610. CR 1959, RAW MATERIALS RESOUR, V1 1985, 50 YEAR DEV PROGRAM 1986, AGENDA ACTION PHILIP 1988, MAPPING NATURAL COND 1988, NATURAL FOREST RESOU 1989, PHILIPPINES ENV NATU 1993, WORLD POPULATION DAT ALLEN JC, 1985, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V75, P163 BEE OJ, 1990, SINGAPORE J TROP GEO, V11, P117 BILSBORROW RE, 1992, AMBIO, V21, P37 BLAIKIE PM, 1987, LAND DEGRADATION SOC BONITA M, 1977, POPULATION RESOURCES, V2 BROOKFIELD HF, 1990, EARTH TRANSFORMED HU, P496 BRUCE RC, 1977, SAVE OUR FORESTS LIV BYRON N, 1988, ASIAN PACIFIC EC LIT, V2, P46 CALLAHAM R, 1981, SOME PERSPECTIVES FO COLLINS M, 1991, CONSERVATION ATLAS T DAROESMAN R, 1979, B INDONES ECON STUD, V15, P43 FEENY D, 1984, 458 YAL U EC GROWTH FLINT EP, 1991, CAN J FOREST RES, V21, P91 GILLIS M, 1988, PEOPLE TROPICAL RAIN, P177 GRAINGER A, 1987, 1987 LAND RES EV NAT HICKS GL, 1971, TRADE GROWTH PHILIPP HIRSCH P, 1987, SINGAPORE J TROP GEO, V8, P129 HIRSCH P, 1994, SINGAPORE J TROP GEO, V44, P305 HOUGHTON RA, 1994, BIOSCIENCE, V44, P305 KASPERSON JX, 1995, REGIONS RISK, V1, P1 KUMMER DM, 1992, DEFORESTATION POSTWA LACHOWSKI HM, 1979, PHOTOGRAMMETRIC ENG, V45, P1387 MEYER WB, 1992, ANNU REV ECOL SYST, V23, P39 MEYER WB, 1994, GLOBAL LAND USE LAND MYERS N, 1992, PRIMARY SOURCE PANAYOTOU T, 1989, ECONOMETRIC STUDY CA PORTER G, 1988, RESOURCES POPULATION POTTER L, 1994, REGIONS RISK COMP TH REPETTO R, 1988, FOREST TREES GOVT PO REVILLA AV, 1983, POLICIES STRATEGIES SKOLE D, 1993, SCIENCE, V260, P1905 STERN P, 1992, GLOBAL ENV CHANGE UN TURNER BL, 1990, EARTH TRANSFORMED HU TURNER BL, 1991, INT SOC SCI J, V130, P669 TURNER BL, 1993, RELATING LAND USE GL WEIDELT H, 1982, ASPECTS MANAGEMENT S WILLIAMS M, 1990, EARTH TRANSFORMED HU NR 44 TC 34 J9 BIOSCIENCE BP 323 EP 328 PY 1994 PD MAY VL 44 IS 5 GA NG925 UT ISI:A1994NG92500006 ER PT J AU Ahmad, QK TI Towards poverty alleviation: The water sector perspectives SO INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF WATER RESOURCES DEVELOPMENT LA English DT Article C1 Bangladesh Unnayan Parishad, Dhaka 1212, Bangladesh. RP Ahmad, QK, Bangladesh Unnayan Parishad, Plot 50,Block D,Gulshan 1, Dhaka 1212, Bangladesh. AB Given the context of diminishing water availability as a result of water pollution and inadequate development of water resources on the supply side and. increasing population and expanding economic activity on the demand side, this paper reviews water-poverty interfaces and suggests ways of contributing to poverty alleviation through water sector interventions. The unequal distribution of the available water within communities and among various water users in the same country and across countries is discussed as a key issue in this context. The paper examines the causes of poverty with particular reference to the pattern of access to water supply as well as to water for various economic activities. It also considers water-related disasters such as flood, cyclone and riverbank erosion and their adverse human and natural consequences. Water deprivation is seen as both a state and a process-the former being the situation prevailing at a particular point of time and the later implying how that state has been reached and how may it evolve in future. The paper argues that the water crisis is primarily one of management, given the persisting traditional-sectorally focused and fragmented-approach. The appropriate alternative, it is argued, is integrated water resource management (IWRM), which is holistic in approach and focuses on the various uses of water and different categories of its users. It suggests ways of moving forward in terms of improved and participatory water development and management, which can contribute significantly to poverty alleviation. The second part of the paper highlights the National Water Policy of Bangladesh as a case study. The policy, adopted in 1999, broadly encompasses the various elements of IWRM. It enunciates principles and directions for water planning and utilization towards fulfilling the national goals of economic development, poverty alleviation, food security, public health and safety, decent standard of living of the people and protection of the natural environment. The policy has adopted a holistic approach and provided guidelines for participatory water management. The paper points out that a Bangladesh National Water Management Plan has been drafted within the framework of the National Water Policy with a view to improving water development and management so as to address human, economic and environmental needs of water, with special emphasis on the water needs of the poorer segments of society. CR 2001, BONN INT C FRESW 3 7 *GLOB WAT PARTN, 2000, WAT SEC FRAM ACT MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 *MIN WAT RES, 1999, NAT WAT POL *MIN WAT RES, 2000, GUID PART WAT MAN *UNDP, 2002, HUM DEV REP 2002 *WAT RES PLANN ORG, 2001, DRAFT NAT WAT MAN PL *WORLD WAT COMM, 2000, WAT SEC WORLD VIS WA AHMAD QK, 2000, BANGLADESH WATER VIS AHMAD QK, 2001, GANGES BRAHMAPUTRA M MOHAMMED A, 2002, S AS WAT CLIM TASK F STAMOULIS KG, 2001, FOOD AGR RURAL DEV C NR 12 TC 0 J9 INT J WATER RESOUR DEV BP 263 EP 277 PY 2003 PD JUN VL 19 IS 2 GA 696PA UT ISI:000183894200014 ER PT J AU Abel, N Cumming, DHM Anderies, JM TI Collapse and reorganization in social-ecological systems: Questions, some ideas, and policy implications SO ECOLOGY AND SOCIETY LA English DT Article C1 Arizona State Univ, Tempe, AZ 85287 USA. AB We tested the explanatory usefulness and policy relevance of Holling's (2001) "adaptive cycle" theory in exploring processes of "collapse," also called " release," and recovery in regional social-ecological systems (SESs) in Zimbabwe and Australia. We found that the adaptive cycle is useful in recognizing changes in system behavior during the various phases. However, our small sample of cases did not generally show either the sequential passage of stages or the prerelease decline in resilience that adaptive cycle theory implies. In all cases, however, the reasons for releases were apparent with hindsight. On the other hand, our examples mostly supported the proposition that resilience is controlled by slowly changing variables. Although we found the adaptive cycle, and complex system theory in general, to be useful integrating frameworks, disciplinary theories are required to explain causes and effects in specific cases. We used theories linking distribution of political power to institutional change; to investment in natural, human, social, and physical capitals; and to access to financial capital. We explored patterns of change of these capitals before, during, and after release and reorganization. Both the patterns of change and relative importance of the different capitals during reorganization varied widely, but the importation of resources from broader scales was often a key to recovery. We propose that the resilience of most regional or national SESs can be explained in these terms. The capacity to self-organize emerged from our studies as a critical source of resilience. Although rebuilding this capacity at times requires access to external resources, excessive subsidization can reduce the capacity to self-organize. The policy implication is that cross-scale subsidization should end when self-organization becomes apparent, because subsidization can increase the vulnerability of the system as a whole. When the aim is to recover without changing the system fundamentally, the focus should be upon conserving or investing in the elements of capital critical for this. If the current system is not viable, it is necessary to invest in forms of capital that will enable fundamental change. It will also be necessary to stop investing in the capitals that maintained the unviable regime. The political difficulty of doing this is why SESs so often remain maladapted to current conditions and opportunities and eventually reach the point of collapse. 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RP Tuyet, D, Res Inst Geol & Mineral Resources, Hanoi, Vietnam. AB Karst in Vietnam covers an area of about 60,000 km(2), i.e. 18 % of the surface of the country. The country has an annual average temperature of 24 degreesC, an annual average rainfall of 2300 nun and a relative humidity of about 90%. Karst in Vietnam is typified by peak cluster-depression landscapes ranging in elevation from 200 to over 2000 m. Tower and coastal karst landscapes also exit. Because of naturally favourable conditions, karst ecosystems are diverse and very rich. Higher plants(cormophytes) are abundant. They are represented by approximately 2000 species, 908 genera, 224 families, 86 orders and 7 phyla. They form a thick vegetation cover of evergreen tropical rainforest. Knowledge about lower plants is limited. The fauna is rich and diverse. Phyla such as Protozoa, Vermes, Mollusca and Arthropoda are yet ill known. Preliminary results show that the phylum Chordata is represented by 541 species from 80 families, 40 orders and 5 classes. There exist many precious and rare mammals, in particular some endemic species such as Trachypithecus poliocephalus, T. delacouri, Rhinopithecus avanculus, Rhinolophus rouxi, Seotoma dineties and Silurus cuephuongensis. The class Insecta has about 2000 species. The fast population growth, particularly in the mountainous areas of the country, triggers an increasing demand for land and therefore threatens the ecosystem. To obtain land for farming, people have cut, burned and destroyed natural forest cover; resulting in occurrence of hazards such as soil-loss, water-loss, flash floods, mud-rock flows, rock-falls, severe drought, water logging and changes of karstic aquifers etc. Poaching precious animals and illegal logging are increasing. In contrast to other natural systems, karst ecosystems cannot be reestablished once damaged. Living karst landscapes will become rocky desert ones without life. Conservation of karstic environmental systems in general and karstic ecosystems in particular should not be the sole vocation of scientists but also a duty and responsibility of authorities and people from all levels. A good example of a multidisciplinary approach to karst-related problems is the implementation of the Vietnamese-Belgian Karst Project (VBEKAP): "Rural development in the mountain karst area of NW Vietnam by sustainable water and land management and social learning: its conditions and facilitation". The aim of this project is to improve living conditions of local people and sustained protection and management of the karst environment and ecosystem. CR *FAUN FLOR INT IND, 2000, PROJ DOC CONS PU LUO, P127 *MIN FOR, 1995, VIETN FOR, P70 KHOI LV, 1994, STUDIES SETTING BUFF, P135 MAXWELL O, 2000, PROJECT PROPOSAL CON, P95 QUY V, 1996, CUC PHUONG NATL PARK, P58 YEN MD, 1993, STUDYING WORKS TROPI, P95 NR 6 TC 0 J9 ACTA GEOL SIN-ENGL ED BP 325 EP 329 PY 2001 PD SEP VL 75 IS 3 GA 468TB UT ISI:000170773300015 ER PT J AU Wadley, RL Mertz, O Christensen, AE TI Local land use strategies in a globalizing world - Managing social and environmental dynamics SO LAND DEGRADATION & DEVELOPMENT LA English DT Editorial Material C1 Univ Missouri, Dept Anthropol, Columbia, MO 65211 USA. Univ Copenhagen, Inst Geog, DK-1350 Copenhagen, Denmark. RP Wadley, RL, Univ Missouri, Dept Anthropol, 107 Swallow Hall, Columbia, MO 65211 USA. AB This special issue deals with local rural people's economic, social and cultural responses to external and internal pressures generated by processes of global and regional change. The contributions deal with issues of resource-base degradation and stable land management, with special emphases on market integration and increased vulnerability of natural resources and local livelihoods in Lao DPR; land-use change in a Malaysian swidden system under varied patterns of migration and off-farm labour; occupational multiplicity and agricultural specialization in the Philippines; land degradation and environmental perceptions in peri-urban Nigeria; food security, gendered labour and shifting cultural-economic values in Uganda; and the rehabilitation of environment and social institutions through neo-localism in Thailand. All of the articles were originally presented at an International Conference in Copenhagen, Denmark in 2003, under the auspices of the Danish University Consortium on Environment and Development-Sustainable Land Use and Natural Resource Management (DUCED SLUSE). Copyright (c) 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. CR BINGHAM D, 2002, GLOBALIZATION DEV CO BRADY NC, 1996, AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON, V58, P3 BURGERS P, 2005, AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON, V110, P1 CASSON A, 2002, WORLD DEV, V30, P2133 CURTIS F, 2003, ECOL ECON, V46, P83 DAHLBERG A, 1994, 6 NORD AFR DOVE MR, 1996, BORNEO TRANSITION PE, P41 EDER JF, 1999, GENERATION LATER HOU FOLEY JA, 2005, SCIENCE, V309, P570 GEIST HJ, 2001, LUCC REPORT SERIES, V4 JABBAR M, 1996, OUTLOOK AGR, V25, P27 KEARNEY M, 1995, ANNU REV ANTHROPOL, V24, P547 KOCZBERSKI G, 2005, AGR SYST, V85, P324 LAMBIN EF, 2001, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V11, P261 MORTIMORE MJ, 2005, GEOGRAFISK TIDSSKRIF, V105, P101 RASMUSSEN K, 2001, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V11, P271 RIGG J, 2001, MORE SOIL RURAL CHAN SCOONES I, 1997, SUSTAINING SOIL INDI, P1 WADLEY RL, 2005, AGR SYST, V85, P289 WEYERHAEUSER H, 2005, AGR SYST, V85, P234 YOUNG A, 1998, LAND RESOURCES NOW F NR 21 TC 0 J9 LAND DEGRAD DEV BP 117 EP 121 PY 2006 PD MAR-APR VL 17 IS 2 GA 034LO UT ISI:000236930700001 ER PT J AU Hudgens, D TI Adapting the National Flood Insurance Program to relative sea level rise SO COASTAL MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article C1 Univ Massachusetts, Environm Coastal & Ocean Sci Dept, Boston, MA 02125 USA. RP Hudgens, D, Univ Massachusetts, Environm Coastal & Ocean Sci Dept, 100 Morrissey Blvd, Boston, MA 02125 USA. AB Congress created the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) to provide much-needed flood insurance to property owners and to decrease the nation's susceptibility to flooding. Relative sea level rise now poses a threat to the nation's flood preparedness, with coastal property owners facing increasingly severe flooding. The Federal Emergency Management Agency could address this vulnerability through several different approaches. By recalculating and extending the 100-year floodplains to incorporate estimates of relative sea level rise, the program would prepare coastal property owners for the near-future flood risks Further adaptation approaches to improve the NFIP include requiring floodproofing, obtaining "rolling easements," and conducting education campaigns. CR *FED EM MAN AG, 1998, NAT MIT STRAT INTR *INT PAN CLIM CHAN, 1996, CLIM CHANG 1995 IMP *INT PAN CLIM CHAN, 1996, CLIM CHANG 1995 SCI *NAT FLOOD INS PRO, 1998, REP ARCH POL CLAIM S *SWISS RE, 1996, CLIM CHANG INS IND S *US ARM CORPS ENG, 1998, FLOODPR TECHN PROGR, CH1 BROECKER WS, 1997, SCIENCE, V278, P1582 CLINE WR, 1992, EC GLOBAL WARMING ESTERS SD, 1997, NATL UNDERWRITER PRO, V101, P4 KATZ RW, 1992, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V21, P289 LEONARD K, 1997, BANK NEWS, V97, P14 MANN ME, 1998, NATURE, V392, P779 NICHOLLS RJ, 1996, COAST MANAGE, V24, P301 PIELKE RA, 1998, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V8, P159 SCHNEIDER D, 1997, SCI AM, V276, P112 SIMS JH, 1983, ENVIRON BEHAV, V15, P165 TITUS JG, 1991, COAST MANAGE, V19, P171 TITUS JG, 1998, MARYLAND LAW REV, V57, P1279 WITT JL, 1998, REDUCING FLOOD LOSSE NR 19 TC 0 J9 COAST MANAGE BP 367 EP 375 PY 1999 PD OCT-DEC VL 27 IS 4 GA 246DB UT ISI:000083147600006 ER PT J AU Batterbury, S Forsyth, T Thomson, K TI Environmental transformations in developing countries: hybrid research and democratic policy SO GEOGRAPHICAL JOURNAL LA English DT Article C1 UNIV LONDON LONDON SCH ECON & POLIT SCI,INST DEV STUDIES,LONDON WC2A 2AE,ENGLAND. INT INST ENVIRONM & DEV,LONDON WC1H 0DD,ENGLAND. RP Batterbury, S, BRUNEL UNIV,DEPT GEOG & EARTH SCI,UXBRIDGE UB8 3PH,MIDDX,ENGLAND. AB This paper introduces a special edition of The Geographical Journal on the theme of 'environmental transformations in developing countries'. Geographical research into human-environment relations is well established. However. many recent studies of political ecology or constructivist approaches to environment either overlook biophysical aspects of environmental change, or uncritically accept 'orthodox' explanations of physical degradation without appreciating the social and political construction of such models. This paper, and those following, attempt iu outline ways in which environmental research may remain sensitive to political and cultural debates, vet also give insights to practical environmental management of biophysical resources 'externally real' to human experience. It is argued that understanding human impacts on environment may only be achieved through long-term environmental histories compiled using locally-based 'hybrid' social and physical research methods; plus an awareness of the social and political construction of environmental 'orthodoxies' by powerful domestic and global agendas. As such, 'transformations' may be viewed as both physical changes in factors such as land cover or health hazards: but also as the socio-economic transitions in the driving forces of environmental degradation and perceptions of risk which in turn fuel new orthodoxies in research and policy. 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RP Benitez, PC, Univ Victoria, Dept Econ, POB 1700 STN CSC, Victoria, BC V8W 2Y2, Canada. AB we have provided a framework for identifying least-cost sites for afforestation and reforestation and deriving carbon sequestration cost curves at a global level in a scenario of limited information. Special attention is given to country risk in developing countries and the sensitivity to spatial datasets. Our model results suggest that within 20 years and considering a carbon price of US$50/tC, tree-planting activities could offset 1 year of global carbon emissions in the energy sector. However, if we account for country risk considerations-associated with political, economic and financial risks-carbon sequestration is reduced by approximately 60%. With respect to the geography of supply, illustrated by grid-scale maps, we find that most least-cost sites are located in regions of developing countries such as the Sub-Sahara, Southeast Brazil and Southeast Asia. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. 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RP Demeritt, D, Univ London Kings Coll, Dept Geog, Strand, London WC2R 2LS, England. AB Having outlined a theory of heterogeneous social construction, this article describes the scientific construction of climate change as a global-scale environmental problem caused by the universal physical properties of greenhouse gases. Critics have noted that this reductionist formulation serves a variety of political purposes, but instrumental and interest-based critiques of the use of scientific knowledge tend to ignore the ways in which a politics gets built into science at the upstream end. By retracing the history of climate modeling and of several scientific controversies, I unmask the tacit social and epistemic commitments implied by its specific practices. The specific scientific framing of global climate change has reinforced and been reinforced by the technocratic inclinations of global climate management. 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SCI CONTEXT, V12, P275 WOOD RA, 1999, NATURE, V399, P572 WOOLGAR S, 1988, SCI VERY IDEA YEARLEY S, 1996, SOCIOLOGY ENV GLOBAL YOUNG O, 1994, INT GOVERNANCE PROTE ZEHR SC, 1994, SCI STUD, V1, P47 NR 235 TC 21 J9 ANN ASSN AMER GEOGR BP 307 EP 337 PY 2001 PD JUN VL 91 IS 2 GA 451XP UT ISI:000169828100005 ER PT J AU Chen, M Pollard, D Barron, EJ TI Regional climate change in East Asia simulated by an interactive atmosphere-soil vegetation model SO JOURNAL OF CLIMATE LA English DT Article C1 Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Atmospher Phys, Beijing 100029, Peoples R China. Penn State Univ, EMS Environm Inst, University Pk, PA 16802 USA. RP Chen, M, Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Atmospher Phys, Beijing 100029, Peoples R China. AB A regional coupled soil-vegetation-atmosphere model is used to study changes and interactions between climate and the ecosystem in East Asia due to increased atmospheric CO2. The largest simulated climate changes are due to the radiative influence of CO2, modified slightly by vegetation feedbacks. Annual precipitation increases by about 20% in coastal areas of northern China and in central China, but only by 8% in southern China. The strongest warming of up to 4degreesC occurs in summer in northern China. Generally, the climate tends to be warmer and wetter under doubled CO2 except for inland areas of northern China, where it becomes warmer and drier. Most of the changes discussed in this paper are associated with changes in the East Asian monsoon, which is intensified under doubled CO2. The largest changes and feedbacks between vegetation and climate occur in northern China. In some coastal and central areas around 40degreesN, temperate deciduous forests expand northward, replacing grassland due to warmer and wetter climate. Evergreen taiga retreats in the coastal northeast, causing extra cooling feedback due to less snow masking. The largest changes occur in extensive inland regions northward of 40degreesN, where deserts and shrub land expand due to warmer and drier conditions, and water supply is a critical factor for vegetation. These northern inland ecosystems experience considerable degradation and desertification, indicating a marked sensitivity and vulnerability to climatic change. 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CSIC, Cid, ES-08034 Barcelona, Spain. RP Sunyer, J, Univ Pompeu Fabra, Unitat Rec Resp Ambiental, IMIM, Barcelona, Spain. CR *WHO, 2002, WORLDS HLTH REP 2002 ARNELL NW, 2002, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V53, P413 EPSTEIN PR, 1998, B AM METEOROL SOC, V79, P409 EPSTEIN PR, 2005, NEW ENGL J MED, V353, P1433 GOUVEIA N, 2003, INT J EPIDEMIOL, V32, P241 HASSOL SJ, 2004, IMPACTS WARMING ARCT HAY SI, 2002, NATURE, V415, P905 HOLSTEIN J, 2005, J PUBLIC HEALTH, V27, P359 HOPP MJ, 2003, CLIMATE RES, V25, P85 KEARNEY MS, 2002, EOS T AM GEOPHYS UN, V83, P173 KLINENBERG E, 2003, HEAT WAVE SOCIAL AUT KOSATSKY T, 2005, EURO SURVEILL, V10, P148 LUTERBACHER J, 2004, SCIENCE, V303, P1499 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 MCMICHAEL AJ, 2001, P NUTR SOC, V60, P195 MCMICHAEL AJ, 2004, COMP QUANTIFICATION, P1543 MICHELOZZI P, 2004, MMWR-MORBID MORTAL W, V53, P369 PATZ JA, 2005, NATURE, V438, P310 ROGERS DJ, 2000, SCIENCE, V289, P1763 SCHAR C, 2004, NATURE, V427, P332 TANSER FC, 2003, LANCET, V362, P1792 WEBSTER PJ, 2005, SCIENCE, V309, P1844 NR 22 TC 1 J9 INT J EPIDEMIOL BP 213 EP 216 PY 2006 PD APR VL 35 IS 2 GA 033AI UT ISI:000236817900002 ER PT J AU Xu, JC Fox, J Vogler, JB Zhang, PF Fu, YS Yang, LX Jie, Q Leisz, S TI Land-use and land-cover change and farmer vulnerability in Xishuangbanna prefecture in southwestern China SO ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article C1 East West Ctr, Honolulu, HI 96848 USA. Chinese Acad Sci, Kunming Inst Bot, Kunming, Peoples R China. Yunnan Univ, Kunming 650091, Peoples R China. Ctr Agr Res & Ecol Studies, Hanoi, Vietnam. Univ Copenhagen, Inst Geog, Copenhagen, Denmark. RP Fox, J, East West Ctr, 1601 EW Rd, Honolulu, HI 96848 USA. AB This study investigated land-use and land-cover change in three hamlets and two state rubber farms in the Nan-e watershed of the Xishuangbanna prefecture of Yunnan province in Southwestern China. The overall objective of the study was to understand how state policies affected land-use and land-cover and how changes in these variables affected farmer vulnerability to economic, social, and political events. Emphasis was placed on the cultivation of rubber (Hevea brasiliensis), promoted in southern Yunnan province since the 1950s as a means to meet the demands of rapid economic development. The study combined remote sensing analysis with secondary data and in-field interviews in order to understand the coupling between land-use and land-cover change and farmer vulnerability in light of the geographic, historical, and sociopolitical situation. CR BARHAM BL, 1999, UNASYLVA, V50, P34 BILSBORROW RE, 1992, AMBIO, V21, P7 BOYCE JK, 2001, NEW SOLUTIONS, V11, P267 CHAPMAN EC, 1991, GEOGR J, V157, P34 CHASE TN, 2000, CLIM DYNAM, V16, P93 CHEO R, 2000, EVALUATION IMPACT RU COWARD WCE, 2002, TAI POLITICS UPLANDS FENG YZ, 1982, ACTA BOT, V24, P22 GORE C, 1993, J DEV STUD, V29, P429 GUAN K, 1998, HIGHLAND FLOWERS YUN HOUGHTON RA, 1999, SCIENCE, V285, P574 JIANG QN, 2003, YUNNAN TROPICAL SCI, V25, P34 KASPERSON JX, 1995, REGIONS RISK, V1, P1 LAMBIN EF, 2001, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V11, P261 LEACH M, 1999, WORLD DEV, V27, P225 MA Y, 1989, INT S MAN MAD COMM T, P27 OSMANI SR, 1995, CHOICE WELFARE DEV, P324 PEI SJ, 1991, ETHICS RELIG BIODIVE, P118 RIBOT JC, 1995, GEOJOURNAL, V35, P119 RIBOT JC, 2001, INT J AGR RESOURCES, V1, P327 SALA OE, 2000, SCIENCE, V287, P1770 SEN AK, 1981, POVERTY FAMINES ESSA, V1, P1 SWIFT J, 1989, IDS B, V20, P8 TURNER BL, 1995, 7 HDP VERBURG PH, 1999, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V9, P303 VITOUSEK PM, 1997, SCIENCE, V277, P494 WU ZL, 2001, INT J SUST DEV WORLD, V8, P337 XU J, 2002, INDIGENOUS STRATEGIE, P201 XU JC, 1999, MT RES DEV, V19, P123 YAN L, 1992, XISHUANGBANNA NATURE NR 30 TC 2 J9 ENVIRON MANAGE BP 404 EP 413 PY 2005 PD SEP VL 36 IS 3 GA 965OC UT ISI:000231959000006 ER PT J AU Folke, C TI Freshwater for resilience: a shift in thinking SO PHILOSOPHICAL TRANSACTIONS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY OF LONDON SERIES B-BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES LA English DT Article C1 Stockholm Univ, Dept Syst Ecol, SE-10691 Stockholm, Sweden. RP Folke, C, Stockholm Univ, Dept Syst Ecol, SE-10691 Stockholm, Sweden. AB Humanity shapes freshwater flows and biosphere dynamics from a local to a global scale. Successful management of target resources in the short term tends to alienate the social and economic development process from its ultimate dependence on the life-supporting environment. Freshwater becomes transformed into a resource for optimal management in development, neglecting the multiple functions of freshwater in dynamic landscapes and its fundamental role as the bloodstream of the biosphere. The current tension of these differences in worldview is exemplified through the recent development of modern aquaculture contrasted with examples of catchment-based stewardship of freshwater flows in dynamic landscapes. In particular, the social and institutional dimension of catchment management is highlighted and features of social-ecological systems for resilience building are presented. It is concluded that this broader view of freshwater provides the foundation for hydrosolidarity. 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AB This paper explores how professionals' universal, reductionist and standardized views of poverty differ from those of the poor themselves. Poverty line thinking concerned with income-poverty and employment thinking concerned with jobs, project Northern concerns on the South, where the realities of the poor are local, diverse, often complex and dynamic. Examples illustrate how poor people's criteria differ from those assumed for them by professionals. The paper also discusses neglected dimensions of deprivation including vulnerability, seasonality, powerlessness and humilation. In the new understandings of poverty, wealth as an objective is replaced by wellbeing and ''employment'' in jobs by livelihood. The final sections argue for altruism and reversals to enable poor people to analyze and articulate their own needs, and they conclude with the implications for policy and practice of putting first the priorities of the poor. 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CR 1992, WORLD RESOURCES 1992 1992, WORLD SCI WARNING HU BERRY L, 1990, ORNLCON299 TECH REP BILSBORROW RE, 1987, WORLD DEV, V15, P183 BODEN TA, 1990, TRENDS 90 COMPENDIUM BURTON I, 1978, ENV HAZARD, V1, P1 COALE AJ, 1970, SCIENCE, V170, P132 COMMONER B, 1972, CLOSING CIRCLE NATUR COSTANZA R, 1991, ECOLOGICAL EC SCI MA CROPPER ML, 1992, J ECON LIT, V30, P675 DILLMAN DA, 1983, J ECON PSYCHOL, V3, P299 DUNLAP RE, 1991, PUBLIC OPIN QUART, V55, P713 EHRLICH PR, 1971, SCIENCE, V171, P1212 EHRLICH PR, 1990, POPULATION EXPLOSION FISCHHOFF B, 1989, IMPROVING RISK COMMU, P211 HEBERLEIN TA, 1985, APR INT C CONS BEH E HIRST E, 1986, ENERGY EFFICIENCY BU HIRST E, 1987, DOEBP1128718 PAC POW HOLDREN JP, 1974, AM SCIENT, V62, P282 KEMPTON W, IN PRESS ANN REV ENE KEYFITZ N, 1991, POPUL INDEX, V57, P5 KREBILLPRATHER RL, 1992, AUG M AM SOC ASS PIT LUTZENHISER L, IN PRESS ANN REV ENE MILETI DS, IN PRESS HDB ENV SOC MILLER RD, 1985, SHARED SAVINGS RESID MOORMAW WR, 1991, STATE ENV MOORNAW WR, 1993, FEB M AM ASS ADV SCI OLSEN ME, 1992, ADV HUMAN ECOLOGY, P197 OSTROM E, 1990, GOVERNING COMMUNICAT RIDKER RG, 1972, POPULATION RESOURCES RIDKER RG, 1972, SCIENCE, V176, P1085 RUDEL TK, 1989, RURAL SOCIOL, V54, P327 SCHNAIBERG A, 1980, ENV SURPLUS SCARCITY SCHWENGELS P, 1990, ENERGY EFFICIENCY EN SIMON J, 1986, POPULATION GROWTH EC SIMON JL, 1981, ULTIMATE RESOURCE STERN PC, 1984, ENERGY USE HUMAN DIM STERN PC, 1986, EVALUATION REV, V10, P147 STERN PC, 1992, AM PSYCHOL, V47, P1224 STERN PC, 1992, GLOBAL ENV CHANGE UN TURNER BL, 1990, EARTH TRANSFORMED HU VINE E, 1988, LBL25525 TECH REP, V1 NR 42 TC 15 J9 SCIENCE BP 1897 EP 1899 PY 1993 PD JUN 25 VL 260 IS 5116 GA LJ349 UT ISI:A1993LJ34900028 ER PT J AU Baro, M Deubel, TF TI Persistent hunger: Perspectives on vulnerability, famine, and food security in Sub-Saharan African SO ANNUAL REVIEW OF ANTHROPOLOGY LA English DT Article C1 Univ Arizona, Dept Anthropol, Tucson, AZ 85721 USA. Univ Arizona, Bur Appl Res Anthropol, Tucson, AZ 85721 USA. RP Baro, M, Univ Arizona, Dept Anthropol, Tucson, AZ 85721 USA. AB This review examines the persistence of chronic hunger in Sub-rights reserved Saharan Africa in the twenty-first century and reviews dominant famine theories, concepts of vulnerability, and household livelihood security and responses to recent food crises in the region. The authors argue that famine occurrences are linked to historical and contemporary socioeconomic processes that have increased over time the vulnerability of African households to hunger and reduced their resilience to environmental and economic shocks, political conflict, and the rapid spread of HIV/AIDS. Approaches to famine need to move away from the "emergency relief" framework to better address the underlying conditions that make food shortages endemic. Future food security for Africa requires an integrated long-term response to household vulnerability on the. part of African governments, civil society, and international partners by incorporating new technologies, local expertise, and active involvement of African communities living with the realities of recurrent famine. 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RP Ford, JD, Univ Guelph, Dept Geog, Guelph, ON N1G 2W1, Canada. AB This paper develops a vulnerability-based approach to characterize the human implications of climate change in Arctic Bay, Canada. It focuses on community vulnerabilities associated with resource harvesting and the processes through which people adapt to them in the context of livelihood assets, constraints, and outside influences. Inuit in Arctic Bay have demonstrated significant adaptability in the face of changing climate-related exposures. This adaptability is facilitated by traditional Inuit knowledge, strong social networks, flexibility in seasonal hunting cycles, some modern technologies, and economic support. Changing Inuit livelihoods, however, have undermined certain aspects of adaptive capacity, and have resulted in emerging vulnerabilities in certain sections of the community. (C) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 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P184 WATTS MJ, 1993, PROG HUM GEOG, V17, P43 WENZEL G, 1991, ANIMAL RIGHTS HUMAN WENZEL G, 2001, INUIT STUDIES, V25, P37 WILKINSON D, 1955, LAND LONG DAY WOOLCOCK M, 2000, WORLD BANK RES OBSER, V15, P225 NR 132 TC 1 J9 GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANGE BP 145 EP 160 PY 2006 PD MAY VL 16 IS 2 GA 051NM UT ISI:000238167800004 ER PT J AU Mirza, MMQ TI Climate change and extreme weather events: can developing countries adapt? SO CLIMATE POLICY LA English DT Article C1 Univ Toronto, Inst Environm Studies, AIRG, Toronto, ON M5S 3E8, Canada. RP Mirza, MMQ, Univ Toronto, Inst Environm Studies, AIRG, 33 Willcocks St, Toronto, ON M5S 3E8, Canada. AB Developing countries are vulnerable to extremes of normal climatic variability, and climate change is likely to increase the frequency and magnitude of some extreme weather events and disasters. Adaptation to climate change is dependent on current adaptive capacity and the development models that are being pursued by developing countries. Various frameworks are available for vulnerability and adaptation (V&A) assessments, and they have both advantages and limitations. Investments in developing countries are more focused on recovery from a disaster than on the creation of adaptive capacity. Extreme climatic events create a spiral of debt burden on developing countries. Increased capacity to manage extreme weather events can reduce the magnitude of economic, social and human damage and eventually, investments, in terms of borrowing money from the lending agencies. Vulnerability to extreme weather events, disaster management and adaptation must be part of long-term sustainable development planning in developing countries. Lending agencies and donors need to reform their investment policies in developing countries to focus more on capacity building instead of just investing in recovery operations and infrastructure development. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *CRED, 2000, CURR PRACT MEAS IMP *GOO, 2000, NAT OUR STAT *IDB, 1999, OP 704 NAT UN DIS *IFRC RCS, 2001, WORLD DIS REP FOC RE *IFRC RCS, 2002, WORLD DIS REP 2002 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 *IPCC, 2001, CLIM CHANG 2001 *MUN REINS, 1999, CLIM CHANG INCR LOSS *OCAA, 1998, REC NAC HOND *SWISS REINS CO, 1998, FLOODS INS RISK *SWISS REINS CO, 2000, NAT CAT MAN MAD DIS *UK MED OFF, 1999, IND CYCL FACT SHEET *UNDP, 1998, STAT GOV EXP TRENDS *UNDP, 2001, EL AD POL FRAM TECHN *UNFCCC, 2002, GUID CLIM CHANG CONV *WORLD BANK, 1999, WORLD BANK DEV IND *WORLD BANK, 2000, WORLD DEV REP 2000 2, P161 *WSWS, 2001, MOZ FLOOD DIS RET AHMED AU, 2000, PERSPECTIVES FLOOD 1, P67 ALBALABERTRAND JM, 1993, POLITICAL EC LARGE N, P259 ANDERSON MB, 1990, 29 WORLD BANK BENIOFF R, 1996, VULNERABILITY ADAPTA BENSON C, 2000, DISASTER RISK MANAGE, V2 BURTON I, 1999, COME HELL HIGH WATER CARTER TR, 1994, IPCC TECHNICAL GUIDE DYSON LL, 2001, S AFR J SCI, V97, P80 FEENSTRA J, 1998, HDB METHODS CLIMATE FREEMAN PK, 2001, ANN BANK C DEV EC EU FREEMAN PK, 2001, INFRASTRUCTURE NATUR KHUDA ZRM, 2000, PERSPECTIVES FLOOD 1, P31 KRINER S, 2000, 3 MONTHS SUPER CYCLO MIRZA MMQ, 2001, ENV HAZARDS, V3, P37 PAGE DL, 2000, FLOODS PREDICTABLE D ROBINSON A, 1999, SUPER CYCLONE EXPOSE SHOOK G, 1997, DISASTERS, V21, P77 SMITHERS JC, 2001, WATER SA, V27, P25 VAZ AC, 2000, INT C MOZ FLOODS MAP WARRICK RA, 2000, J ENV DEV, V7, P43 NR 38 TC 0 J9 CLIM POLICY BP 233 EP 248 PY 2003 PD SEP VL 3 IS 3 GA 734DG UT ISI:000186039500005 ER PT J AU Ivey, JL Smithers, J De Loe, RC Kreutzwiser, RD TI Community capacity for adaptation to climate-induced water shortages: Linking institutional complexity and local actors SO ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article C1 Univ Guelph, Dept Geog, Guelph, ON N1G 2W1, Canada. RP Smithers, J, Univ Guelph, Dept Geog, Guelph, ON N1G 2W1, Canada. AB There is growing concern for the capacity of urban and rural communities to manage current water shortages and to prepare for shortages that may accompany predicted changes in climate. In this paper, concepts relating to the notion of climate adaptation and particularly "capacity building" are used to elucidate several determinants of community-level capacity for water management. These concepts and criteria are then used to interpret empirically derived insights relating to local management of water shortages in Ontario, Canada. General determinants of water-related community capacity relate to upper tier political and institutional arrangements; the characteristics of, and relationships among, pertinent agencies, groups, or individuals involved in water management; and the adequacy of financial, human, information, and technical resources. The case analysis illustrates how general factors play out in local experience. The findings point to geographically specific factors that influence the effectiveness of management. Key factors include collaboration between water managers, clarification of agency roles and responsibilities, integration of water management and land-use planning, and recognition and participation of both urban and rural stakeholders, whose sensitivities to water shortages are spatially and temporally variable. CR *CRED VALL CONS, 1997, UNPUB CAL CREEK CRED *CRED VALL CONS, 1998, UNPUB W CRED SUBW ST *CRED VALL CONS, 1999, UNPUB WAT US WORKSH *INT PAN CLIM CHAN, 2001, CLIM CHANG 2001 SYNT *KPMG LLP CHART AC, 2000, FIN STAT CRED VALL C *ONT MIN ENV, 2001, OP CLEAN WAT MUN GRO *ONT MIN MUN AFF H, 1996, MUN FIN INF 1994 QUE *ONT MIN NAT RES, 2001, ONT LOW WAT RESP *PLANN ENG IN LTD, 1999, UNPUB CAL COMM RES S *REIC CONS LTD, 1998, UNPUB TOWN OR WAT EF *TOWN ORG PUB WORK, 2000, UNPUB 1999 MUN WELL ADGER WN, 1999, WORLD DEV, V27, P249 BISWAS AK, 1996, WATER RESOURCES DEV, V12, P399 BURTON I, 1996, ADAPTING CLIMATE CHA, P55 BURTON I, 1998, HDB METHODS CLIMATE CHANG YM, 2001, CREATING SUSTAINABLE, P176 COHEN JM, 1995, INT REV ADM SCI, V61, P407 DELOE R, 2001, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V11, P231 DELOE RC, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P163 DELOE RC, 2002, ENVIRON MANAGE, V29, P217 ETKIN D, 1998, CANADA COUNTRY STUDY, V8, P31 FURUSETH O, 1995, J ENV PLANNING MANAG, V38, P181 GABRIEL AO, 1993, CANADIAN WATER RESOU, V18, P117 GARGAN JJ, 1981, PUBLIC ADMIN REV, V41, P649 GRIGG NS, 1993, J WATER RES PL-ASCE, V119, P531 GRINDLE MS, 1995, PUBLIC ADMIN DEVELOP, V15, P441 HAMDY A, 1998, WATER INT, V23, P126 HOLMES PR, 1996, WATER RESOURES DEV, V12, P461 JOHNSTON RJ, 2000, DICT HUMAN GEOGRAPHY, P976 KELLY PM, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V47, P325 KRAJNC A, 2000, CAN PUBLIC POL, V26, P111 LAVENDER B, 1998, BINATIONAL GREAK LAK, P99 LORENZONI I, 2000, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V10, P145 MERRY DJ, 1995, WATER RESOURCES DEV, V11, P11 MITCHELL B, 1989, APPL GEOGR, V9, P196 MOLOT L, 2001, LIQUID ASSETS MONITO MORTSCH L, 2000, CANADIAN WATER RESOU, V25, P153 MORTSCH LD, 1996, LIMNOL OCEANOGR, V41, P903 NUTTLE WK, 1993, ADAPTATION CLIMATE C OCONNOR DR, 2002, REPORT WALKERTON I 1, P188 SHANAGHAN PE, 1998, J AM WATER WORKS ASS, V90, P51 SHAW DT, 1992, J AM WATER WORKS ASS, V84, P34 SMIT B, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, P876 SMITH JB, 1996, CLIMATE RES, V6, P193 SMITHERS J, 1997, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V7, P129 STRZEPEK KM, 1998, HDB METHODS CLIMATE SUBAK S, 2000, WATER RESOUR MANAG, V14, P137 TOMAN MA, 1996, ADAPTING CLIMATE CHA, P5 WALKER S, 1995, MODELING MANAGEMENT, P107 WEILAND PS, 1998, PUB ADM Q, V22, P176 WHEATEN E, 1999, MITIGATION ADAPTATIO, V4, P215 WILHITE DA, 1996, NAT HAZARDS, V13, P229 WOO CK, 1992, WATER RESOUR RES, V28, P2591 WOO V, 1982, J AM WATER WORKS ASS, V74, P126 NR 54 TC 0 J9 ENVIRON MANAGE BP 36 EP 47 PY 2004 PD JAN VL 33 IS 1 GA 808OJ UT ISI:000220578100004 ER PT J AU Fazey, I Fazey, JA Salisbury, JG Lindenmayer, DB Dovers, S TI The nature and role of experiential knowledge for environmental conservation SO ENVIRONMENTAL CONSERVATION LA English DT Article C1 Univ Wales, Inst Rural Sci, Aberystwyth SY23 3AL, Dyfed, Wales. Univ Wales, Sch Educ, Res Inst Enhancing Learning, Bangor LL57 2PX, Gwynedd, Wales. Biotext, Yarralumla, ACT 2600, Australia. Australian Natl Univ, Ctr Resource & Environm Studies, Canberra, ACT 0200, Australia. RP Fazey, I, Univ Wales, Inst Rural Sci, Aberystwyth SY23 3AL, Dyfed, Wales. AB Understanding the nature and role of experiential knowledge for environmental conservation is a necessary step towards understanding if it should be used and how it might be applied with other types of knowledge in an evidence-based approach. This paper describes the nature of experiential and expert knowledge. It then discusses the role of experiential knowledge as a complement to scientific knowledge and explains the interplay between experiential knowledge with conservation research and practice using a simple conceptual model of how individuals learn. There are five main conclusions: (1) because experiential knowledge will always play a role in decision-making, enhancing ability to learn from experiences (including research) will have a significant influence on the effectiveness of conservation outcomes; (2) while experiential knowledge is qualitatively very different from quantitative information, both are important and complementary; (3) some experiential knowledge can be expressed quantitatively, but experiential knowledge can be difficult to isolate as single facts or propositions and qualitative methods will therefore often be required to elicit experiential knowledge; (4) because each person's expertise is unique, when using experiential knowledge the extent of a person's experience and its relevance to a particular problem need to be specified; and (5) as with any form of knowledge, there are limitations to that derived from personal experience. Synthesis and communication of research is therefore essential to help prevent erroneous thinking and, where possible, experiential knowledge should be used in conjunction with other types of information to guide conservation actions. 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Univ Calif Berkeley, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Berkeley, CA 94720 USA. Cent Valley Reg Water Qual Control Board, Sacramento, CA 95827 USA. RP Quinn, NWT, Univ Calif Berkeley, Inst Environm Sci & Engn, Lawrence Berkeley Lab, 412 OBrien Hall,Bld 70A-3317F,1 Cyclotron Rd, Berkeley, CA 94720 USA. AB This collaborative research project has two main objectives: to assess the vulnerability of water supply, water demand, water quality, ecosystem health and socioeconomic welfare within the San Joaquin River Basin as a function of climate variability and extreme weather events; and to provide guidance in the formulation of effective management strategies to mitigate the range of potential impacts due to climate variability and extreme weather. The project involves updating and advancing previous studies on climate change in California. Climate data are based on new Global Circulation Model output from the statistical downscaling that converts GCM climate forecasts into local weather forecasts. The project applies these climate data to perturb an existing 72-year historical hydrologic time series of the San Joaquin Basin to develop an integrated impacts analysis of climate change/variability on the water, economic and social resources of the Basin. Previous studies focused only on water resource impacts. A decision support system (DSS) is under development that will provide assistance to CALFED (a joint California State and Federal program designed to resolve water issues in the Bay-Delta) in water resource and ecosystem management of the San Joaquin Basin. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. AR rights reserved. CR BEVEN KJ, 1979, HYDROL SCI B, V24, P43 DRACUP JA, 1993, ESTIMATION MONTHLY A, CH2 GLEICK PH, 1989, REV GEOPHYSICS, V27 HOWITT RE, 1995, J AGR ECON, V46, P147 KIM J, 1995, J GEOPHYS RES-ATMOSP, V100, P20845 KIM J, 1996, REGIONAL IMPACTS GLO, P73 KIM J, 1998, J CLIMATE, V11, P2376 KIM J, 2000, IN PRESS J GEOPHYS R LEAVESLEY GH, 1983, 834238 US GEOL SURV, P207 LEAVESLEY GH, 1996, USERS MANUAL LETTENMAIER DP, 1989, EPA2300589051 US EPA LETTENMAIER DP, 1990, WATER RESOUR RES, V26, P69 MILLER N, 1997, MISSION EARTH MODELI, P55 MILLER NL, 1996, 23 WMO CAS JSC TDO, P734 MILLER NL, 1996, B AM METEOROL SOC, V77, P101 MILLER NL, 1999, J AM WATER RESOUR AS, V35, P1525 MILLERNL, 2000, IN PRESS J METEOROL PECK EL, 1973, HYDRO31 NOAA NWS NR 18 TC 2 J9 ADV ENVIRON RES BP 309 EP 317 PY 2001 PD NOV VL 5 IS 4 GA 482VF UT ISI:000171597400002 ER PT J AU Bryant, CR Smit, B Brklacich, M Johnston, TR Smithers, J Chiotti, QP Singh, B TI Adaptation in Canadian agriculture to climatic variability and change SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 Univ Montreal, Montreal, PQ H3C 3J7, Canada. Univ Guelph, Guelph, ON N1G 2W1, Canada. Carleton Univ, Ottawa, ON K1S 5B6, Canada. Univ Lethbridge, Lethbridge, AB T1K 3M4, Canada. Univ Toronto, Inst Environm Studies, Toronto, ON M5S 3E8, Canada. RP Bryant, CR, Univ Montreal, CP 6128,Succursale Ctr Ville, Montreal, PQ H3C 3J7, Canada. AB The effects of climatic variability and change on Canadian agriculture have become an important research field since the early 1980s. In this paper, we seek to synthesize this research, focusing on agricultural adaptation, a purposeful proactive or reactive response to changes associated with climate, and influenced by many factors. A distinctive feature of methods used in research on adaptation in Canadian agriculture is the focus on the important role of human agency. Many individual farmers perceive they are well adapted to climate, because of their extensive 'technological' tool-kit, giving them confidence in dealing with climatic change. In many regions, little concern is expressed over climatic change, except where there are particular types of climatic vulnerability. Farmers respond to biophysical factors, including climate, as they interact with a complex of human factors. Several of these, notably institutional and political ones, have tended to diminish the farm-level risks stemming from climatic variability and change, but may well increase the long term vulnerability of Canadian agriculture. Notwithstanding the technological and management adaptation measures available to producers, Canadian agriculture remains vulnerable to climatic variability and to climate change. 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RP Bene, C, Univ Portsmouth, CEMARE, Portsmouth PO1 2UP, Hants, England. AB In this paper, we first look retrospectively at the perceptions embraced by academics, international agencies and practitioners of the relation between fisheries and poverty in developing countries and we try to identify the underlying paradigms which have structured these perceptions. The review reveals how the debate has focused on the economic (low income) and biological (overexploitation) aspects of the problem. We then revisit these perceptions in the light of the recent conclusions drawn from other sectors and in particular from the new "consensus" on poverty proposed by the international community. Incorporation of the recent research on poverty helps to show how socio-institutional mechanisms governing people's access to fisheries resources-rather than the resources themselves-play such a critical role in vulnerability to poverty. Finally, a typology identifying four different categories of intrasectoral exclusion mechanisms is developed and illustrated through empirical studies derived from African and Asian fisheries. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. 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1979, 2 ICLARM STUDIES REV STEEDMAN D, 1985, SMALL SCALE FISHERIE, P9 SWIFT J, 1989, IDS B, V20, P8 SWIFT P, 1997, DEV RES FRAMEWORK FI THOMAS DHL, 1996, HUM ECOL, V24, P287 THOMPSON PM, 1998, INLAND FISHERY ENHAN, P351 TOUFIQUE K, 1997, WORLD DEV, V25, P457 TOWNSLEY P, 1998, SUSTAINABLE RURAL LI, P139 VANZALINGE N, 1998, CROSSING BOUNDARIES VEDELD T, 1998, LAW MANAGEMENT RENEW VEDELD T, 2000, J DEV STUD, V36, P105 WAHYONO U, 1993, FAO JAPAN EXPERT CON, V1, P243 WATTS MJ, 1993, PROG HUM GEOG, V17, P43 WELCOMME RL, 1998, FISHERIES MANAGEMENT, V5, P351 WRIGHT CS, 1990, P BIENN C INT I FISH ZERNER C, 1993, FAO JAPAN EXPERT CON, V1, P127 NR 119 TC 1 J9 WORLD DEVELOP BP 949 EP 975 PY 2003 PD JUN VL 31 IS 6 GA 684WR UT ISI:000183229900002 ER PT J AU Hall, JW Sayers, PB Walkden, MJA Panzeri, I TI Impacts of climate change on coastal flood risk in England and Wales: 2030-2100 SO PHILOSOPHICAL TRANSACTIONS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY A-MATHEMATICAL PHYSICAL AND ENGINEERING SCIENCES LA English DT Article C1 Univ Newcastle Upon Tyne, Sch Civil Engn & Geosci, Newcastle Upon Tyne NE1 7RU, Tyne & Wear, England. HR Wallingford, Wallingford OX10 8BA, Oxon, England. RP Hall, JW, Univ Newcastle Upon Tyne, Sch Civil Engn & Geosci, Cassie Bldg, Newcastle Upon Tyne NE1 7RU, Tyne & Wear, England. AB Coastal flood risk is a function of the probability of coastal flooding and the consequential damage. Scenarios of potential changes in coastal flood risk due to changes in climate, society and the economy over the twenty-first century have been analysed using a national-scale quantified flood risk analysis methodology. If it is assumed that there will be no adaptation to increasing coastal flood risk, the expected annual damage in England and Wales due to coastal flooding is predicted to increase from the current 0.5 pound billion to between 1.0 pound and 13.5 pound billion, depending on the scenario of climate and socio-economic change. The proportion of national flood risk that is attributable to coastal flooding is projected to increase from roughly 50% to between 60 and 70%. Scenarios of adaptation to increasing risk, by construction of coastal dikes or retreat from coastal floodplains, are analysed. These adaptations are shown to be able to reduce coastal flood risk to between 0.2 pound and MS billion. The capital cost of the associated coastal engineering works is estimated to be between 12 pound and 40 pound billion. Nonstructural measures to reduce risk can make a major contribution to reducing the cost and environmental impact of engineering measures. CR *DTI, 2002, DTI PUB *EUR COMM DIR GEN, EUR 2004 LIV COAST E *HALCR GROUP LTD, NAT APPR ASS RISK FL *IPCC, 2000, SPEC REP EM SCEN SRE *SPRU CSERGE CRU, 1999, SOC EC FUT CLIM IMP *UK CLIM IMP PROGR, 2000, SOC EC SCEN CLIM CHA ARNELL NW, 2004, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V14, P3 BACON S, 1991, INT J CLIMATOL, V11, P545 BACON S, 1993, INT J CLIMATOL, V13, P423 BURGESS K, 2004, P 39 DEFR FLOOD COAS, P14 CARRETERO JC, 1998, B AM METEOROL SOC, V79, P741 DEBERNARD J, 2002, CLIMATE RES, V23, P39 EVANS EP, 2004, FORESIGHT FLOOD COAS EVANS EP, 2004, FORESIGHT FLOOD COAS, V1 GULEV SK, 1999, INT J CLIMATOL, V19, P1091 HALL JW, 2003, P I CIVIL ENG-WATER, V156, P235 HARGREAVES JC, 2002, GLOBAL ATMOS OCEAN S, V8, P41 HOLMAN IP, 2005, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V71, P43 HOLMAN IP, 2005, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V71, P9 HULME M, 1998, 1 UKCIP CLIM RES UN HULME M, 2000, UKCIP02 TYND CTR LANGENBERG H, 1999, CONT SHELF RES, V19, P821 LOWE JA, 2001, CLIM DYNAM, V18, P179 PENNINGROWSELL EC, 2003, BENEFITS FLOOD COAST SUTHERLAND J, 2003, P I CIVIL ENG-WATER, V156, P137 TSIMPLIS MN, 2005, PHILOS T ROY SOC A, V363, P1329 VOORTMAN HG, 2003, P 28 INT C CARD UK J, V2, P2373 VRIJLING JK, 2001, RELIAB ENG SYST SAFE, V74, P337 WOOLF DK, 2002, J GEOPHYS RES OCEANS, V107 NR 29 TC 0 J9 PHIL TRANS ROY SOC A-MATH PHY BP 1027 EP 1049 PY 2006 PD APR 15 VL 364 IS 1841 GA 025PJ UT ISI:000236278700018 ER PT J AU BURTON, I PUSHCHAK, R TI THE STATUS AND PROSPECTS OF RISK ASSESSMENT SO GEOFORUM LA English DT Article C1 UNIV TORONTO,DEPT GEOG,TORONTO M5S 1A1,ONTARIO,CANADA. UNIV TORONTO,ERINDALE COLL,DEPT GEOG,MISSISSAUGA L5L 1C6,ONTARIO,CANADA. RP BURTON, I, UNIV TORONTO,INST ENVIRONM STUDIES,TORONTO M5S 1A1,ONTARIO,CANADA. CR AIKIN AM, 1977, EP776 EN MIN RES REP BLOKKER EF, 1981, ANGEWANDTE SYSTEMANA, V2, P168 BURTON I, 1978, ENV HAZARD, V1, P1 BURTON I, 1980, MISSISSAUGA EVACUATI BURTON I, 1983, ENV IMPACT ASSESSMEN BURTON I, 1983, TRANSPORT DANGEROUS CLARK WC, 1980, SOC RISK ASSESSMENT, P287 COVELLO V, 1982, RISK TECHNOLOGICAL S, P287 DOOLEY J, 1983, RISK, P81 FISCHHOFF B, 1982, AM STATIST, P240 GARDNER GT, 1982, J SOC PSYCHOL, V116, P179 HARPER FV, 1956, LAW TORTS HOLDREN JP, 1981, RISK ANAL, V1, P173 INHABER H, 1978, AECB1119 AT EN CONTR JOHNSON EL, 1982, AM STAT, V36, P232 KASPER RG, 1980, SOC RISK ASSESSMENT, P71 KASPERSON RE, 1983, RISK, P135 KATES RW, 1978, SCOPE, V8 KEENEY R, 1980, SITING ENERGY FACILI LAGADEC P, 1982, MAJOR TECHNOLOGICAL LATHROP J, 1980, IIASA WP80150 LEE KN, 1981, SCIENCE, V208, P679 LOWRANCE WW, 1976, ACCEPTABLE RISK SCI MILLER DR, 1983, RISK, P31 PEARCE DW, 1981, P ROY SOC LOND A, V276, P181 PUSHCHAK R, 1981, URBAN NATURAL AREAS, P73 PUSHCHAK R, 1983, PLAN CANADA, V23, P68 RASMUSSEN N, 1975, WASH1400 NUCL EN STU ROWE WD, 1977, ANATOMY RISK SELIKOFF IJ, 1983, RISK, P71 SIDDALL E, 1980, RISK FEAR PUBLIC SAF SLOVIC P, 1979, ENERGY RISK MANAGEME, P223 SLOVIC P, 1981, P ROY SOC LOND A MAT, V376, P17 STARR C, 1969, SCIENCE, V165, P1232 TVERSKY A, 1974, SCIENCE, V185, P1124 WELLER P, 1982, ALTERNATIVES, V2, P5 WHITE GF, 1942, 29 U CHIC DEP GEOGR WHITE GF, 1966, ENV QUALITY GROWING, P105 WHYTE AV, 1980, SCOPE, V15 WHYTE AV, 1982, LIVING RISK ENV RISK, P39 WHYTE AV, 1983, RISK, P121 WILSON R, 1982, RISK BENEFIT ANAL WOLPERT J, 1976, NAT RESOUR J, V16, P103 NR 43 TC 2 J9 GEOFORUM BP 463 EP 475 PY 1984 VL 15 IS 3 GA TE181 UT ISI:A1984TE18100013 ER PT J AU Saizar, A TI Assessment of impacts of a potential sea-level rise on the coast of Montevideo, Uruguay SO CLIMATE RESEARCH LA English DT Article C1 Comis Nacl Cambio Global, Uruguay Climate Change Country Study, Montevideo 11100, Uruguay. RP Saizar, A, Comis Nacl Cambio Global, Uruguay Climate Change Country Study, Ciudadela 1414 Piso 6, Montevideo 11100, Uruguay. AB In this study, sea-level rise scenarios derived from a potential climate change were considered and the physical impacts on the coast of Montevideo, Uruguay, under each scenario were determined. The Bruun Rule was used to calculate coastal erosion. The impacts under a 'no action' response were first assessed. Land and coastal construction loss as well as the effects on infrastructure, such as the sewer system and the port, were evaluated. Inundation along the streams which discharge at the coast was qualitatively assessed. The associated costs were estimated. In addition, possible active responses were identified and their costs were estimated. Costs and benefits of each response option, including the 'no action' option, are discussed in the paper, concluding on the need for planning of anticipatory measures. CR *CARP IMFIA, 1992, CORR SED RIO PLATA *CARP SHN SOHMA, 1989, EST CONT RIO PLAT *IPCC, 1990, RESP STRAT WORK GROU *IPCC, 1992, INT WORKSH GLOB CLIM *MTOP PNUD UNESCO, 1979, URU73007 *SOHMA, 1978, OBS MAR PUERT MONT, V15, P40 BRUUN P, 1962, J WATERWAYS HARBORS, V88, P117 NICHOLLS RJ, 1995, J COASTAL RES, V14, P26 VOLONTE CR, 1994, GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANG, P427 NR 9 TC 2 J9 CLIMATE RES BP 73 EP 79 PY 1997 PD DEC 29 VL 9 IS 1-2 GA ZD200 UT ISI:000072661400012 ER PT J AU Krysanova, V Hattermann, F Wechsung, F TI Development of the ecohydrological model SWIM for regional impact studies and vulnerability assessment SO HYDROLOGICAL PROCESSES LA English DT Article C1 Potsdam Inst Climate Impack Res, Global Change & Nat Syst Dept, D-14412 Potsdam, Germany. RP Krysanova, V, Potsdam Inst Climate Impack Res, Global Change & Nat Syst Dept, POB 601203, D-14412 Potsdam, Germany. AB In this paper the ecohydrological model SWIM developed for regional impact assessment is presented, and examples of approaches to climate and land use change impact studies are described. SWIM is a continuous-time semi-distributed ecohydrological model, integrating hydrological processes, vegetation, nutrients (nitrogen and phosphorus) and sediment transport at the river basin scale. Its spatial disaggregation scheme has three levels: (1) basin, (2) sub-basins and (3) hydrotopes within sub-basins. The model was extensively tested and validated for hydrological processes, nitrogen dynamics, crop yield and erosion (mainly in mesoscale sub-basins of the German part of the Elbe River basin). After appropriate validation in representative sub-basins, the model can be applied at the regional scale for impact studies. Particular interest in the global change impact studies is given to effects of expected changes in climate and land use on hydrological processes and agro-ecosystems, including water balance components, water quality and crop yield. This paper (a) introduces the reader to the class of process-based ecohydrological catchment scale models, (b) introduces SWIM as one such model, and (c) presents two examples of impact studies performed with SWIM for the federal state of Brandenburg (Germany), which overlaps with the lowland part of the Elbe drainage area. The impact studies provide a better understanding of the complex interactions between climate, hydrological processes and vegetation, and improve our potential adaptation to the expected changes. Copyright (C) 2005 John Wiley Sons, Ltd. CR *GRASS4 1, 1996, REF MAN ARNOLD JG, 1990, SWRRB BASIN SCALE SI, V255 ARNOLD JG, 1993, J HYDROL, V142, P47 BEVEN KJ, 1996, DISTRIBUTED HYDROLOG DREYHAUPT J, 2001, UFZ BERICHT, V17 EASMUS D, 1991, PLANT CELL ENVIRON, V14, P843 GOUDRIAAN J, 1984, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V6, P167 HARLEY PC, 1992, PLANT CELL ENVIRON, V15, P271 JARVIS PG, 1986, ADV ECOL RES, V15, P1 KIMBALL BA, 1995, GLOB CHANGE BIOL, V1, P429 KIMBALL BA, 1999, WATER RESOUR RES, V35, P1179 KNISEL WG, 1980, USDA CONSERVATION RE, V26, P643 KRYSANOVA V, 1989, ECOL MODEL, V49, P7 KRYSANOVA V, 1998, ECOL MODEL, V106, P261 KRYSANOVA V, 1998, IAHS PUBLICATION, V249, P13 KRYSANOVA V, 1999, ENVIRON MODEL ASSESS, V4, P259 KRYSANOVA V, 1999, IAHS PUBL, V257, P201 KRYSANOVA V, 2000, 69 PIK KRYSANOVA V, 2000, HYDROBIOLOGIA, V410, P131 KRYSANOVA V, 2002, ADV GLOB CHANGE RES, V10, P271 KRYSANOVA V, 2002, IN PREEE LINKAGE HYD LEONARD RA, 1987, T ASAE, V30, P1403 MONTEITH JL, 1965, S SOC EXP BIOL, V19, P205 MUSCUTT AD, 1993, AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON, V45, P59 NASH JE, 1970, J HYDROL, V10, P282 OCALLAGHAN JR, 1996, LAND USE INTERACION, P200 PRIESTLEY CHB, 1972, MON WEATHER REV, V100, P81 ROTMANS J, 1993, TELLUS, V45, P1 SMITH RE, 1992, OPUS INTEGRATED SIMU, V1 WATSON RT, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, V1, P1 WECHSUNG F, 2000, LANDSCAPE URBAN PLAN, V51, P105 WERNER PC, 1997, CLIMATE RES, V8, P171 WILLIAMS JR, 1977, T ASAE, V20, P1100 WILLIAMS JR, 1983, J SOIL WATER CONSERV, V38, P381 YOUNG RA, 1989, J SOIL WATER CONSERV, V44, P168 NR 35 TC 2 J9 HYDROL PROCESS BP 763 EP 783 PY 2005 PD FEB 28 VL 19 IS 3 GA 900RF UT ISI:000227231300015 ER PT J AU Dessai, S Hulme, M TI Assessing the robustness of adaptation decisions to climate change uncertainties: A case study on water resources management in the East of England SO GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS LA English DT Article C1 Univ E Anglia, Sch Environm Sci, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. Tyndall Ctr Climate Change Res, Norwich, Norfolk, England. RP Dessai, S, Univ E Anglia, Sch Environm Sci, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. AB Projections of future climate change are plagued with uncertainties, causing difficulties for planners taking decisions on adaptation measures. This paper presents an assessment framework that allows the identification of adaptation strategies that are robust (i.e. insensitive) to climate change uncertainties. The framework is applied to a case study of water resources management in the East of England, more specifically to the Anglian Water Services' 25 year Water Resource Plan (WRP). The paper presents a local sensitivity analysis (a 'one-at-a-time' experiment) of the various elements of the modelling framework (e.g., emissions of greenhouse gases, climate sensitivity and global climate models) in order to determine whether or not a decision to adapt to climate change is sensitive to uncertainty in those elements. Water resources are found to be sensitive to uncertainties in regional climate response (from general circulation models and dynamical downscaling), in climate sensitivity and in climate impacts. Aerosol forcing and greenhouse gas emissions uncertainties are also important, whereas uncertainties from ocean mixing and the carbon cycle are not. Despite these large uncertainties, Anglian Water Services' WRP remains robust to the climate change uncertainties sampled because of the adaptation options being considered (e.g. extension of water treatment works), because the climate model used for their planning (HadCM3) predicts drier conditions than other models, and because 'one-at-a-time' experiments do not sample the combination of different extremes in the uncertainty range of parameters. This research raises the question of how much certainty is required in climate change projections to justify investment in adaptation measures, and whether such certainty can be delivered. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *AWS LTD, 2004, WAT RES PLAN *COMM EUR COMM, 2005, WINN BATTL GLOB CLIM *EA, 2001, WAT RES FUT STRAT AN *EA, 2003, WAT RES PLANN GUID V *EA, 2004, MAINT WAT SUPPL ENV *EERA SDRT, 2004, LIV CLIM CHANG E ENG MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 *UKWIR LTD, 2003, 03CL0402 UKWIR LTD ADGER WN, 2005, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V15, P77 ALEXANDER LV, 2001, ATMOSPHERIC SCI LETT, V1 ANDRONOVA NG, 2001, J GEOPHYS RES-ATMOS, V106, P22605 ARNELL NW, 2003, J HYDROL, V270, P195 ARNELL NW, 2004, UNPUB EVIDENCE TYNDA ARNELL NW, 2004, WATER ENVIRON J, V18, P112 ARNELL NW, 2006, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V78, P227 BANKES S, 1993, OPER RES, V41, P435 CALDEIRA K, 2003, SCIENCE, V299, P2052 CAMPOLONGO F, 2000, SENSITIVITY ANAL, P65 CARNELL J, 1999, J CHART INST WATER E, V13, P413 CARTER TR, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, P145 CASMAN EA, 1999, RISK ANAL, V19, P33 DESSAI S, 2005, THESIS U E ANGLIA NO FOREST CE, 2002, SCIENCE, V295, P113 FUNTOWICZ SO, 1990, UNCERTAINTY QUALITY GOODMAN D, 2002, HUM ECOL RISK ASSESS, V8, P177 HELTON JC, 1996, RELIAB ENG SYST SAFE, V54, P91 HELTON JC, 2002, RISK ANAL, V22, P591 HEWITT GD, 2004, EOS, V85, P566 HOBBS BF, 1997, J ENVIRON MANAGE, V49, P53 HOBBS BJ, 1997, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V37, P177 HULME M, 2002, CLIMATE CHANGE SCENA JONES RN, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P403 JONES RN, 2001, INTEGRATING MODELS N JONES RN, 2001, NAT HAZARDS, V23, P197 KAHNEMAN D, 1982, JUDGEMENT UNCERTAINT KNIGHT F, 1922, RISK UNCERTAINTY PRO KNUTTI R, 2002, NATURE, V416, P719 LEMPERT RJ, 1996, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V33, P235 LEMPERT RJ, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P387 LEMPERT RJ, 2003, SHAPING NEXT 100 YEA LEMPERT RJ, 2006, MANAGE SCI, V52, P514 MITCHELL JFB, 1999, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V41, P547 MITCHELL TD, 2003, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V60, P217 MORGAN MG, 1990, UNCERTAINTY GUIDE DE MORITA T, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, P115 MURPHY JM, 2004, NATURE, V430, P768 NAKICENOVIC N, 2000, EMISSIONS SCENARIOS REGAN HM, 2005, ECOL APPL, V15, P1471 RISBEY JS, 1998, WATER POLICY, V1, P321 SANTER BD, 1990, 47 M PLANCK I MET SHERIFF JD, 1996, J CHART INST WATER E, V10, P160 STAINFORTH DA, 2005, NATURE, V433, P403 STEWART TR, 2000, PREDICTION SCI DECIS, P41 VANASSELT MBA, 2000, PERSPECTIVES UNCERTA VANDERSLUIJS JP, 2003, NWSE2003163 CORP I R VANDERSLUIJS JP, 2004, NWSE200437 CORP I RI VANLENTHE J, 1997, RISK DECISION POLICY, V2, P213 VISSER H, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P421 WALKER WE, 2003, INTEGRATED ASSESSMEN, V4, P5 WIGLEY TML, 1992, NATURE, V357, P293 WIGLEY TML, 1995, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V22, P2749 WIGLEY TML, 2001, SCIENCE, V293, P451 WILBY RL, 2005, HYDROL PROCESS, V19, P3201 WINKLER RL, 1996, RELIAB ENG SYST SAFE, V54, P127 YOHE GW, 2004, SCIENCE, V306, P416 YOHE GW, 1991, POLICY SCI, V24, P245 NR 66 TC 0 J9 GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANGE BP 59 EP 72 PY 2007 PD FEB VL 17 IS 1 GA 149YG UT ISI:000245182200008 ER PT J AU Perez, RT Feir, RB Carandang, E Gonzalez, EB TI Potential impacts of sea level rise on the coastal resources of Manila Bay: A preliminary vulnerability assessment SO WATER AIR AND SOIL POLLUTION LA English DT Article C1 NAMRIA,DENR,CGSD,MANILA,PHILIPPINES. RP Perez, RT, PAGASA,DOST,QUEZON 1100,PHILIPPINES. AB This study considers the Manila Bay coastal area of the Philippine for evaluation of possible consequences of accelerated sea level rise in the context of climate change, and suggests adaptive responses to such threats. The semienclosed Manila Bay is bounded by the provinces of Bataan, Pampanga, Bulacan, and Cavite, and some of the towns and cities of Metro Manila along the eastern side. This region is important to the commercial industrial agricultural and aquacultural activities of the Philippines, with Manila as the seat of the national government and the rest among the political constituents of the National Capital Region. An increasing trend in the mean sea level has been observed since 1965 and continues today. The bay area is already subject to several hazards including floods and storm surges during tropical cyclones. The shoreline has changed greatly in the last 5 to 10 years due to reclamation for housing, ports, coastal roads, buildings, and other urbanized developments, adding to the threat of inundation. Selection of appropriate responses is looked at in terms of expected vulnerability, costs, land use, and other sociopolitical and legal considerations. Partial results show that parts of Cavite and Metro Manila Bay areas are especially vulnerable to accelerated sea level rise. CR *BFAR, 1994, RES EC ASS MAN BAY, V2 *IPCC, 1990, STRAT AD SEA LEV RIS *IPCC, 1992, GLOB CLIM CHANG RIS *MDPO, 1996, EXC 1995 SOC PROF LA *NAT RES COUNC, 1987, RESP CHANG SEA LEV I *PAGASA, 1983, DOC STRIDES FIELD IN CARANDANG E, 1989, PRELIMINARY ASSESSME LEATHERMAN SP, 1995, J COASTAL RES NR 8 TC 2 J9 WATER AIR SOIL POLLUT BP 137 EP 147 PY 1996 PD SEP VL 92 IS 1-2 GA VM538 UT ISI:A1996VM53800015 ER PT J AU Faisal, IM Parveen, S TI Food security in the face of climate change, population growth, and resource constraints: Implications for Bangladesh SO ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article C1 Presidency Univ, Dhaka 1213, Bangladesh. N South Univ, Dhaka 1213, Bangladesh. RP Faisal, IM, Presidency Univ, Tower Bldg 11A,Rd 92,Gulshan 2, Dhaka 1213, Bangladesh. AB Ensuring food security has been one of the major national priorities of Bangladesh since its independence in 1971. Now, this national priority is facing new challenges from the possible impacts of climate change in addition to the already existing threats from rapid population growth, declining availability of cultivable land, and inadequate access to water in the dry season. In this backdrop, this paper has examined the nature and magnitude of these threats for the benchmark years of 2030 and 2050. It has been shown that the overall impact of climate change on the production of food grains in Bangladesh would probably be small in 2030. This is due to the strong positive impact of CO2 fertilization that would compensate for the negative impacts of higher temperature and sea level rise. In 2050, the negative impacts of climate change might become noticeable: production of rice and wheat might drop by 8% and 32%, respectively. However, rice would be less affected by climate change compared to wheat, which is more sensitive to a change in temperature. Based on the population projections and analysis of future agronomic innovations, this study further shows that the availability of cultivable land alone would not be a constraint for achieving food self-sufficiency, provided that the productivity of rice and wheat grows at a rate of 10% or more per decade. However, the situation would be more critical in terms of water availability. If the dry season water availability does not decline from the 1990 level of about 100 Bm(3), there would be just enough water in 2030 for meeting both the agricultural and nonagricultural needs. In 2050, the demand for irrigation water to maintain food self-sufficiency would be about 40% to 50% of the dry season water availability. Meeting such a high agricultural water demand might cause significant negative impacts on the domestic and commercial water supply, fisheries, ecosystems, navigation, and salinity management. CR *BBS, 2001, POP CENS 2001 PREL R *BBS, 2001, STAT YEAR BOOK BANG *BBS, 2001, YB AGR STAT BANGL *BBS, 2002, STAT POCK BOOK BANGL MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 *IUCN, 2002, IMP CLIM VAR AGR SEC *MOA, 2001, HDB AGR STAT *MPO, 1991, NAT WAT MAN PLAN *WARPO, 2001, IN PRESS NAT WAT MAN, V1 *WB, 2000, BANGL CLIM CHANG SUS ACOCK B, 1993, INT CROP SCI, V1, P299 AHMED A, 2002, AGR SECTOR VULNERABI AHMED AU, 1998, VULNERABILITY ADAPTA, P13 ASADUZZAMAN M, 1997, GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANG BOYCE JK, 1987, AGRARIAN IMPASSE BEN BRAMMER H, 1990, GEOGR J, V156, P12 BRAMMER H, 1990, GEOGR J, V156, P158 DOORENBOS J, 1977, 24 FAO DOROSH PA, 2002, C EC REF FOOD SEC RO EMERY KO, 1991, SEA LEVELS LAND LEVE GABLE FJ, 1990, ENVIRON MANAGE, V14, P33 HABIBULLAH M, 1998, VULNERABILITY ADAPTA, P55 KARIM Z, 1982, NET IRRIGATION REQUI KARIM Z, 1996, WATER AIR SOIL POLL, V92, P53 KARIM Z, 1999, VULNERABILITY ADAPTA, P29 KHAN HR, 2003, WATER RESOURCES DEV, P16 MAHMOOD R, 1995, PHYS GEOGR, V16, P463 ROTTER R, 2000, CLIMATE CHANGE EFFEC, P651 SEN AK, 1976, FAMINES FOOD AVABILA SEN AK, 1981, POVERTY FAMINES ESSA, V1, P1 SEN AK, 1987, HUNGER ENTITLEMENTS SEN AK, 1991, INTERDISCIPLINARY SC, V16, P324 TURNER BL, 1996, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V93, P14984 ZISKA LH, 1997, AGRONOMY J NR 34 TC 0 J9 ENVIRON MANAGE BP 487 EP 498 PY 2004 PD OCT VL 34 IS 4 GA 880WR UT ISI:000225821200004 ER PT J AU Robins, NS Chilton, PJ Cobbing, JE TI Adapting existing experience with aquifer vulnerability and groundwater protection for Africa SO JOURNAL OF AFRICAN EARTH SCIENCES LA English DT Article C1 British Geol Survey, Wallingford OX10 8BB, Oxon, England. CSIR, Nat Resources & Environm Unit, ZA-0001 Pretoria, South Africa. RP Robins, NS, British Geol Survey, Maclean Bldg, Wallingford OX10 8BB, Oxon, England. AB Whilst groundwater vulnerability mapping and the delineation of resource and source protection zones have become an appropriate set of management tools for Britain as incorporated in European policy, much of semi-arid Africa is still dealing with more pressing issues centred on water supply coverage. There are a number of fundamental differences with Britain which disallow conventional vulnerability mapping and land zonation in much of Africa. Firstly, the scale of groundwater occurrence in weathered basement aquifers does not encourage vulnerability mapping to be undertaken at a field scale, whereas the Karoo and some of the larger areas of unconsolidated sedimentary aquifers could more readily be zoned according to aquifer vulnerability. Secondly, analysis needs to disregard the productivity (or recharge potential) of the aquifer so that poorly productive but socially important aquifers can be assessed. Such practice also avoids the need to identify a value for effective rainfall, a problematical value in semi-arid climates given current uncertainties. Thirdly, it is difficult to protect the many small and dispersed groundwater supply sources typical of many African communities when compared with the fewer and larger sources characteristic of Britain and Europe. Some aspects of European groundwater management practice have been transferred to the African context, notably by South Africa, but there are other practices that should not be attempted. Lessons from experience in South Africa highlight capacity to implement as a key inhibiting factor. Examples of vulnerability assessment and land zonation in a variety of African settings indicate only limited success so far with standard vulnerability assessment and land zonation techniques. Alternative means of quantifying the problem of the optimum proximity of the pit latrine from the well are highlighted, with a minimum separation of 10 m suggested for typical weathered basement rocks. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *DWAF, 1997, PROT MAN POT GROUNDW *DWAF, 1998, MIN REQ WAST DISP LA *DWAF, 2000, WAT QUAL MAN SER *DWAF, 2003, PROT MAN POT GROUNDW *DWAF, 2004, NAT WAT RES STRAT *UNEP, 2006, GROUNDW POLL AFR ALLER L, 1987, 600287035 US EPA BARRETT MH, 2000, GROUNDWATER PAST ACH, P691 BURGESS DB, 1998, SPECIAL PUBLICATIONS, V130, P199 CHILTON PJ, 1990, P INT S TROP HYDR CA, P279 DALY D, 2005, GSI GROUNDWATER NEWS, V45, P3 DOCHARTAIGH BEO, 2005, SCOT J GEOL 1, V41, P21 EDET AE, 2004, GROUNDWATER VULNERAB, P56 FETTER CW, 1994, APPL HYDROGEOLOGY FOSTER SSD, 1987, VULNERABILITY SOIL G, V38, P69 FOSTER SSD, 1998, GEOLOGICAL SOC LONDO, V130, P7 HOWARD G, 2002, CR02079 BRIT GEOL SU LAWRENCE AR, 2001, CR01142 BRIT GEOL SU MATO RRA, 2002, THESIS TU EINDHOVEN MATO RRA, 2004, GROUNDWATER VULNERAB, P100 MORRIS BL, 2003, GROUNDWATER ITS SUSC NKHUWA DCW, 1999, GROUNDWATER URBAN EN, P201 NYAMBE IA, 2000, GROUNDWATER PAST ACH, P803 PIETERSEN K, 2005, ABSTR BIENN GROUND W, P393 ROBINS N, 1994, HYDROGEOLOGIE, V3, P35 ROSEN L, 1994, GROUND WATER, V32, P278 TANDIA AA, 1999, J AFR EARTH SCI, V29, P809 VRBA J, 1994, INT CONTRIBUTIONS HY, P16 WANER S, 1998, S AFR J EPIDEMIOL IN, V13, P53 WARD RS, 2004, Q J ENG GEOL HYDRO 4, V37, P271 XU Y, 1995, GUIDELINE GROUNDWATE NR 31 TC 0 J9 J AFR EARTH SCI BP 30 EP 38 PY 2007 PD JAN VL 47 IS 1 GA 136RC UT ISI:000244240800003 ER PT J AU Gummer, WD Conly, FM Wrona, FJ TI Northern Rivers Ecosystem Initiative: Context and prevailing legacy SO ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING AND ASSESSMENT LA English DT Article C1 Environm Canada, Edmonton, AB, Canada. Environm Canada, Saskatoon, SK, Canada. Natl Hydrol Res Ctr, Saskatoon, SK, Canada. Univ Victoria, Dept Geog, Natl Water Res Inst, STN CSC, Victoria, BC, Canada. RP Gummer, WD, Environm Canada, 200,4999 98th Ave, Edmonton, AB, Canada. AB The Northern River Ecosystem Initiative (NREI), 1997-2004, has provided new scientific knowledge in response to specific recommendations from its predecessor, the Northern River Basins Study (NRBS), 1990-1996. The two initiatives together provide a remarkable body of science which is, and will continue to be, used by resource managers responsible for economic and environmental sustainability in the northern watersheds of Alberta. The NREI focused its investigative efforts on improving our understanding related to ecological considerations of changes in river flow, effect of climate change on flow, ecological responses to pollution and cumulative effects, vulnerability of drinking water quality, and to a lesser degree, wildlife (birds) response to large scale changes within the watersheds. Key findings are briefly presented in this paper and discussed in greater detail in the other NREI papers included in this. Commensurate with the undertakings of NREI, provincial and territorial governments, First Nation and Metis communities, and other administrative organizations such as the Mackenzie River Basin Board, undertook policy, regulatory, and watershed initiatives towards achieving sustainability and providing reliable drinking water quality. 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RP Ellis, F, Univ E Anglia, Sch Dev Studies, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. AB This article reviews the recent literature on diversification as a livelihood strategy of rural households in developing countries, with particular reference to sub-Saharan Africa. Livelihood diversification is defined as the process by which rural families construct a diverse portfolio of activities and social support capabilities in order to survive and to improve their standards of living. The determinants and effects of diversification in the areas of poverty income distribution, farm output and gender ar-e examined. Some policy inferences are summarised. The conclusion is reached that removal of constraints to, and expansion of opportunities for diversification are desirable policy objectives because they give individuals and households more capabilities to improve livelihood security and to raise living standards. 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AM ECON REV, V75, P173 STARK O, 1988, EC DEV CULTURAL CHAN, V36, P465 STARK O, 1991, MIGRATION LABOR STICHTER S, 1982, MIGRANT LABOUR CAPIT TAYLOR A, 1996, ENVIRON HIST, V1, P6 TIFFEN M, 1992, DEV POLICY REV, V10, P359 TIFFEN M, 1994, MORE PEOPLE LESS ERO TODARO MP, 1969, AM ECON REV, V59, P138 TODARO MP, 1997, EC DEV TOMICH TP, 1995, TRANSFORMING AGRARIA TSCHIRLEY DK, 1994, WORLD DEV, V22, P159 UNNI J, 1996, ECON POLIT WEEKLY, V31, P2243 VALENTINE TR, 1993, WORLD DEV, V21, P109 VONBRAUN J, 1991, 5 INT FOOD POL RES I WALKER TR, 1990, VILLAGE HOUSEHOLD EC WALKER TS, 1986, CROP INSURANCE AGR D, P17 WEBB P, 1992, 92 INT FOOD POL RES WOLF DL, 1990, DEV CHANGE, V21 ZOOMERS AEB, 1996, TIJDSCHR ECON SOC GE, V87, P161 NR 176 TC 56 J9 J DEVELOP STUD BP 1 EP 38 PY 1998 PD OCT VL 35 IS 1 GA 144MC UT ISI:000077317500002 ER PT J AU Majka, CG Mccorquodale, DB TI The Coccinellidae (Coleoptera) of the Maritime Provinces of Canada: new records, biogeographic notes, and conservation concerns SO ZOOTAXA LA English DT Article C1 Nova Scotia Museum Nat Hist, Halifax, NS B3H 3A6, Canada. Cape Breton Univ, Dept Biol, Sydney, NSW B1P 6L2, Australia. RP Majka, CG, Nova Scotia Museum Nat Hist, 1747 Summer St, Halifax, NS B3H 3A6, Canada. AB New records of Coccinellidae in the Maritime Provinces of Canada are reported. The known fauna of the region consists of 47 species: 41 in Nova Scotia, 39 in New Brunswick, and 21 in Prince Edward Island. Of these, records are provided for 13 species newly recorded from Nova Scotia and 14 from Prince Edward Island. Two species, Diomus amabilis (LeConte) and Naemia seriata seriata Melsheimer, are newly recorded in Canada. Didion punctatum (Melsheimer) is removed from the fauna of PEI, and Coccidula lepida LeConte is removed from the fauna of NS, and Scymnus impexus Mulsant is removed from the faunas of NS and NB. Records of two adventive species not established in the region are also reported. Collecting effort in the three provinces and their sub-regions is briefly analyzed and compared. Biogeographic observations are provided in relation to the composition of the fauna as a whole, and of disjunct populations of six Nova Scotia coccinellids, several of which appear to be members of a coastal plain fauna that extends from New England to southern Nova Scotia. The potential vulnerability of the coccinellid fauna is discussed in the context of both adventive species in the region, and habitat loss and conservation. 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RP McGoodwin, JR, Univ Colorado, Dept Anthropol, 233 UCB, Boulder, CO 80309 USA. AB Research exploring how climatic variability impacts fishing economies in high-latitude regions was conducted in south-central Iceland and southwest Alaska during 2001-2004. Important differences were found regarding the economic impacts of climatic variations in the commercial economies in Iceland and Alaska, versus in the native subsistence economies in Alaska. In general, the commercially inclined economies in both regions seemed less resilient to ordinary climatic variability. Moreover, both of the commercial economies were importantly influenced by fluctuations in global fish markets that are prompted by climatic variations occurring in regions that are geographically very distant from them. A better understanding of how climatic variability affects fishing economies in high-latitude regions will help in the development of more sustainable fisheries policies for these regions, which may already be experiencing radical climatic and ecological change. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR 2001, GLOBAL WARMING NEWS 2004, IMPACTS WARMING ARCT *NAT RES COUNC, 2001, CLIM CHANG SCI AN SO ARNASON R, 1995, N ATLANTIC FISHERIES, P237 BARKER JH, 1993, ALWAYS GETTING READY BELKIN IM, 1998, PROG OCEANOGR, V41, P1 DICKSON RR, 1988, PROGR OCEANOGR, V20, P103 DURRENBERGER EP, 1989, ANTHRO ICELAND FIENUPRIORDAN A, 2000, HUNTING TRADITION CH HAMILTON LC, 2004, ARCTIC, V57, P325 HOUGHTON JT, 2001, IPCC 3 ASSESSMENT RE JOLLES CZ, 2002, FAITH FOOD FAMILY YU JONSSON S, 1995, N ATLANTIC FISHERIES, P267 JOSEPH DS, 1997, BEND KAWAGLEY AO, 1995, YUPIAQ WORLDVIEW PAT MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 MCGOODWIN JR, 1990, CRISIS WORLDS FISHER MEAD R, 2001, ICELAND METZ B, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 PALSSON G, 1991, COASTAL EC CULTURAL PALSSON G, 1995, ECOLOGICAL EC, V24, P275 PALSSON G, 1998, ECOL ECON, V24, P275 SERVICE ER, 1971, PRIMITIVE SOCIAL ORG VANSTONE JW, 1984, HDB N AM INDIANS, V5, P205 VANSTONE JW, 1984, HDB N AM INDIANS, V5, P224 NR 25 TC 0 J9 MAR POLICY BP 40 EP 55 PY 2007 PD JAN VL 31 IS 1 GA 095KN UT ISI:000241306700005 ER PT J AU Adger, WN Vincent, K TI Uncertainty in adaptive capacity SO COMPTES RENDUS GEOSCIENCE LA English DT Article C1 Univ E Anglia, Sch Environm Sci, Tyndall Ctr Climate Change Res, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. RP Adger, WN, Univ E Anglia, Sch Environm Sci, Tyndall Ctr Climate Change Res, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. AB The capacity to adapt is a critical element of the process of adaptation: it is the vector of resources that represent the asset base from which adaptation actions can be made. Adaptive capacity can in theory be identified and measured at various scales, from the individual to the nation. The assessment of uncertainty within such measures comes from the contested knowledge domain and theories surrounding the nature of the determinants of adaptive capacity and the human action of adaptation. While generic adaptive capacity at the national level, for example, is often postulated as being dependent on health, governance and political rights, and literacy, and economic well-being, the determinants of these variables at national levels are not widely understood. We outline the nature of this uncertainty for the major elements of adaptive capacity and illustrate these issues with the example of a social vulnerability index for countries in Africa. To cite this article: W.N. Adger, K. Vincent, C. R. Geoscience 337 (2005). (c) 2004 Academie des sciences. Published by Elsevier SAS. All rights reserved. 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P658 VIDYARTHI LP, 1975, E ANTHR, V28, P313 VITERI FE, 1971, FAMINE S DEALING NUT, P25 WALFORD C, 1879, FAMINES WORLD PAST P WALLACE AFC, 1957, HUM ORGAN, V16, P23 WALLACE AFC, 1969, CULTURE PERSONALITY WATT RS, 1923, HEART SAVAGEDOM WHITEHEAD RG, 1971, FAMINE S UPPSALA, P41 WIDDOWSON EM, 1976, PROC NUTR SOC ENGL S, V35, P175 WILMSEN EN, 1978, ANTHR ASSESSMENT NUT, P65 WOLFSTEIN M, 1957, DISASTER PSYCHOLOGIC WOODHAMSMITH C, 1962, GREAT HUNGER IRELAND ZIMMERMANN RJ, 1975, PRIMATE BEHAVIOR DEV, V4, P241 ZYGMUNT J, 1972, HUM RELAT, V25, P449 NR 217 TC 44 J9 CURR ANTHROPOL BP 21 EP 44 PY 1980 VL 21 IS 1 GA JG257 UT ISI:A1980JG25700002 ER PT J AU Shafer, CL TI National park and reserve planning to protect biological diversity: some basic elements SO LANDSCAPE AND URBAN PLANNING LA English DT Review C1 Natl Pk Serv, Washington, DC 20240 USA. RP Shafer, CL, Natl Pk Serv, 1849 C St NW, Washington, DC 20240 USA. AB Key needs for the creation of a nature reserve system are outlined: formulating goals, selecting management categories, taking inventory, identifying gaps, designing reserves, measuring reserve condition and vulnerability, and recognizing the relationship between research and management. Some essential components are highlighted: a regional perspective, diversification of management categories, focus on the economics of human welfare, not ignoring the opportunities small reserves can provide for some biota, addition of marine reserves, and the importance of a focus on natural processes. The view some Americans have of indigenous people and protected areas is not compatible with third world realities. Since the problems and challenges of protecting areas in northern and southern countries are alike in many ways, however, a Eurocentric seeking to articulate the special circumstances faced by tropical countries offers these suggestions. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. 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BIOSCIENCE, V48, P607 WILLE C, 1995, NATURE CONSERVANCY, V45, P11 WILLIAMS OR, 1996, SCI ECOSYSTEM MANAGE, P161 WILLISS GF, 1985, DO THINGS RIGHT 1 TI WILSON DE, 1996, MANU BIODIVERSITY SE WILSON EO, 1985, BIOSCIENCE, V35, P700 WOINARSKI JCZ, 1992, AUSTR GLOB ECOL BIOG, V2, P11 WOLF CM, 1996, CONSERV BIOL, V10, P1142 WOODROFFE R, 1998, SCIENCE, V280, P2126 WOODWELL GM, 1983, SCIENCE, V222, P1081 YOUNG RH, 1994, LANDSCAPE ECOLOGY GE ZUBE EH, 1986, LANDSCAPE URBAN PLAN, V13, P11 NR 287 TC 12 J9 LANDSCAPE URBAN PLAN BP 123 EP 153 PY 1999 PD MAY 10 VL 44 IS 2-3 GA 204LW UT ISI:000080766600006 ER PT J AU Turner, MD Williams, TO TI Livestock market dynamics and local vulnerabilities in the sahel SO WORLD DEVELOPMENT LA English DT Review C1 Univ Wisconsin, Madison, WI 53706 USA. Int Livestock Res Inst, Ibadan, Nigeria. RP Turner, MD, Univ Wisconsin, Madison, WI 53706 USA. AB As institutions that facilitate the conversion of livestock to grain and adjust livestock populations to local forage availabilities, livestock markets play important economic and ecological roles in dryland Africa, Using a comprehensive database of 1,580 sales of livestock owned by members of 54 households in western Niger over a major drought-and-recovery cycle (1984-94), the effect of real livestock markets on stocking decisions and the economic vulnerability of rural households was investigated. While livestock markets are shown to facilitate destocking of animals from drought areas, price formation is socially-biased (by gender, wealth, residence) reflecting the differential access and powers within local markets, (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. 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RP ElRaey, M, Univ Alexandria, Inst Grad Studies & Res, Alexandria, Egypt. AB An assessment of the impact of sea level rise on the city of Port Said, Egypt has been carried out using remote sensing and GIS techniques. Bruun's is used to estimate horizontal retreat, due to three scenarios of sea level rise, taking into account local subsidence rates. Overlaying horizontal retreat on land use obtained by remote sensing enabled us to estimate possible losses and socioeconomic impacts. Results indicate serious physical and socio-economic impacts. It is suggested that protection measures must be carried out with emphasis on building breakwaters along the most vulnerable shoreline area. CR *CRI UNESCO UNDP, 1 CRIUNESCOUNDP *DELFT HYDR RES AN, 1992, VULN ASS ACC ACC SEA *IDSC, 1995, PER B PROD CAB INF D *IPCC, 1995, STRAT AD SEA LEV RIS BRUUN P, 1962, J WATERWAYS HARBORS, V88, P117 ELFISHAWI NM, 1989, COMM QUAT SHORELINE, V11, P43 ELRAEY M, 1990, CHANGING CLIMATE COA, V2, P225 ELRAEY M, 1995, J COASTAL RES, V14, P190 ELRAEY M, 1997, ENVIRON MONIT ASSESS, V47, P59 ELRAEY M, 1997, IN PRESS INT J REMOT ELSAYED MK, 1988, SEA LEVEL RISE ALEXA EMERY KO, 1988, MAR GEOL, V81, P41 FANOS AM, 1995, J COASTAL RES, V11, P516 FRIHY OE, 1991, NAT HAZARDS, V5, P65 FRIHY OE, 1992, J INT UNION GEODESY, V11, P81 FRIHY OE, 1996, IN PRESS INT J REMOT HALLERMEIER RJ, 1981, COAST ENG, V4, P253 MILLIMAN JD, 1989, AMBIO, V18, P340 NAFAA MG, 1993, J COASTAL RES, V2, P423 NICHOLLS RJ, 1994, J COASTAL RES, V14, P205 SESTINI G, 1989, 214 WG UNEPOCA SIEGEL FR, 1994, ENVIRON GEOL, V23, P89 STANLEY DJ, 1990, MAR GEOL, V94, P147 STANLEY DJ, 1993, SCIENCE, V260, P628 NR 24 TC 1 J9 ENVIRON MONIT ASSESS BP 113 EP 128 PY 1999 PD MAY VL 56 IS 2 GA 195NP UT ISI:000080258300001 ER PT J AU Bennett, EM Cumming, GS Peterson, GD TI A systems model approach to determining resilience surrogates for case studies SO ECOSYSTEMS LA English DT Article C1 McGill Univ, McGill Sch Environm, Ste Anne De Bellevue, PQ H9X 3V9, Canada. Univ Wisconsin, Ctr Limnol, Madison, WI 53706 USA. Univ Florida, Dept Wildlife Ecol & Conservat, Gainesville, FL 32611 USA. McGill Univ, Dept Geog, Montreal, PQ H3A 2K6, Canada. McGill Univ, McGill Sch Environm, Montreal, PQ H3A 2K6, Canada. RP Bennett, EM, McGill Univ, Dept Nat Resource Sci, Macdonald Campus 21,111 Lakeshore Rd, Ste Anne De Bellevue, PQ H9X 3V9, Canada. AB Resilience theory offers a framework for understanding the dynamics of complex systems. However, operationalizing resilience theory to develop and test empirical hypotheses can be difficult. We present a method in which simple systems models are used as a framework to identify resilience surrogates for case studies. The process of constructing a systems model for a particular case offers a path for identifying important variables related to system resilience, including the slowly-changing variables and thresholds that often are keys to understanding the resilience of a system. We develop a four-step process for identifying resilience surrogates through development of systems models. Because systems model development is often a difficult step, we summarize four basic existing systems models and give examples of how each may be used to identify resilience surrogates. The construction and analysis of simple systems models provides a useful basis for guiding and directing the selection of surrogate variables that will offer appropriate empirical measures of resilience. 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Univ Maryland, Ctr Environm Sci, Cambridge, MD 21613 USA. USA, Corps Engineers, Engineer Res & Dev Ctr, Vicksburg, MS 39180 USA. Louisiana State Univ, Hurricane Ctr, Baton Rouge, LA 70803 USA. Univ New Orleans, Dept Sociol, New Orleans, LA 70148 USA. Ohio State Univ, Columbus, OH 43202 USA. USA, Inst Water Resources, Corps Engineers, Alexandria, VA 22315 USA. Louisiana State Univ, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Baton Rouge, LA 70803 USA. Univ New Orleans, Dept Geol & Geophys, New Orleans, LA 70148 USA. Resources Future Inc, Washington, DC 20036 USA. Univ Washington, Sch Aquat & Fishery Sci, Seattle, WA 98015 USA. BP Explorat Alaska, Anchorage, AK 99519 USA. Colorado State Univ, Engn Res Ctr, Ft Collins, CO 80523 USA. Virginia Inst Marine Sci, Gloucester Point, VA 23062 USA. Smithsonian Environm Res Ctr, Edgewater, MD 21037 USA. RP Day, JW, Louisiana State Univ, Dept Oceanog & Coastal Sci, Baton Rouge, LA 70803 USA. AB Hurricanes Katrina and Rita showed the vulnerability of coastal communities and how human activities that caused deterioration of the Mississippi Deltaic Plain (MDP) exacerbated this vulnerability. The MDP formed by dynamic interactions between river and coast at various temporal and spatial scales, and human activity has reduced these interactions at all scales. Restoration efforts aim to re-establish this dynamic interaction, with emphasis on reconnecting the river to the deltaic plain. Science must guide MDP restoration, which will provide insights into delta restoration elsewhere and generally into coasts facing climate change in times of resource scarcity. CR *INT PAN CLIM CHAN, 2001, CLIM CHANG 2001 SCI *INT PERF EV TASK, 2006, 0003806 MMTF US ARM *LOUIS WETL CONS R, 1998, COAST 2050 SUST COAS *NAT RES COUNC, 2005, DRAW LOUIS NEW MAP A *NAT WETL RES CTR, US GEOL SURV *US ARM CORPS ENG, 1963, HURR STUD MORG CIT L *US ARM CORPS ENG, 2004, LOUIS COAST AR LOUIS BARRAS JA, 1994, 9401 NAT WETL RES CT BAUMANN RH, 1984, SCIENCE, V224, P1093 BOESCH D, 2006, NEW FRAMEWORK PLANNI BOESCH DF, 1994, J COASTAL RES, V20 BOUMANS RMJ, 1997, ECOL ENG, V9, P37 BRITSCH LD, 1993, J COASTAL RES, V9, P324 CAHOON DR, 1995, MAR GEOL, V128, P1 COLEMAN JM, 1998, J COASTAL RES, V14, P698 CONNER WH, 1989, WETLANDS ECOLOGY MAN, V1, P45 COSTANZA R, 2006, FRONT ECOL ENVIRON, V4, P465 DANIELSEN F, 2005, SCIENCE, V310, P643 DAY JW, 1997, COAST MANAGE, V25, P115 DAY JW, 2000, ESTUARIES, V23, P425 DAY JW, 2003, BIOTECHNOL ADV, V22, P135 DAY JW, 2005, ECOL ENG, V24, P253 DAY RH, 1990, ENVIRON MANAGE, V14, P229 DEAN RG, 2006, COAST ENG, V53, P149 DEFFEYES KS, 2001, HUBBERTS PEAK IMPEND DELAUNE RD, 2003, WATER AIR SOIL POLL, V3, P167 EMANUEL K, 2005, NATURE, V436, P686 FISK HN, 1954, J SEDIMENT PETROL, V24, P76 GAGLIANO SM, 1981, T GULF COAST ASS GEO, V31, P295 GRAMLING R, 2005, J COASTAL RES S, V144, P112 HALL C, 2003, NATURE, V426, P318 HOYOS CD, 2006, SCIENCE, V312, P94 KESEL RH, 1989, ENVIRON GEOL WAT SCI, V13, P183 KOCH EW, 1999, MAR ECOL-PROG SER, V184, P63 LASKA S, 2006, NAT NAZ OBSERVER, V31, P2 LOVELACE JK, 1994, 94371 US GEOL SURV MASHRIQUI HS, 2006, COASTAL HYDROLOGY WA, P481 MENDELSSOHN IA, 1991, J COASTAL RES, V7, P137 MENDELSSOHN IA, 2000, CONCEPTS CONTROVERSI, P59 MENDELSSOHN IA, 2003, ECOL ENG, V21, P115 MITSCH WJ, 2001, BIOSCIENCE, V51, P373 MITSCH WJ, 2003, ECOLOGICAL ENG ECOSY MITSCH WJ, 2006, ECOL ENG, V26, P55 MORTON RA, 2002, GULF COAST ASS GEOL, V52, P707 PENLAND S, 1988, J SEDIMENT PETROL, V58, P932 RABALAIS NN, 1994, ESTUARIES, V17, P850 RAUPACH MR, 1981, ANNU REV FLUID MECH, V13, P97 REID RO, 1976, J WATERW HARBORS COA, P61 ROBERTS HH, 1997, J COASTAL RES, V13, P605 SAUCIER R, 1994, GEOMORPHOLOGY QUATER, V1 STONE GW, 1998, J COASTAL RES, V14, P900 SWENSON EM, 1987, ESTUAR COAST SHELF S, V24, P599 SWERISON EM, 1994, HURRICAN ANDREW IN L TURNER RE, 2002, APPROACHES COASTAL W TURNER RE, 2006, SCIENCE, V314, P449 WEBSTER PJ, 2005, SCIENCE, V309, P1844 WELLS JT, 1987, ESTUAR COAST SHELF S, V25, P111 NR 57 TC 0 J9 SCIENCE BP 1679 EP 1684 PY 2007 PD MAR 23 VL 315 IS 5819 GA 148WA UT ISI:000245106900029 ER PT J AU Swaminathan, MS TI Bio-diversity: an effective safety net against environmental pollution SO ENVIRONMENTAL POLLUTION LA English DT Article C1 Taramani Inst Area, MS Swaminathan Res Fdn, Madras 600113, Tamil Nadu, India. RP Swaminathan, MS, Taramani Inst Area, MS Swaminathan Res Fdn, Madras 600113, Tamil Nadu, India. AB Biodiversity is the feedstock for the biotechnology industry. Hence, the conservation, enhancement and sustainable and equitable use of biodiversity should be accorded high priority in all national environment protection programmes. Lichens serve as useful indicators of environmental health. Similarly, several blue green algae help to sequester salt from water. There is need for the more widespread use of such biomonitoring and bioremediation agents. Bioprospecting research designed to identify novel metabolites must be rooted in the principle of equity in sharing benefits with the holders of traditional knowledge. There is need for greater vigil against alien invasive species, since with growing world trade in food grains and other agricultural commodities, there is an increasing possibility of introducing new pests, weeds and harmful micro-organisms. Finally, biological scientists should place emphasis on their ethical responsibility for the consequences of their research, since otherwise bioterrorism could become a major threat to human security. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR HAWKSWORTH DL, 1992, BOT J LINN SOC, V109, P543 NR 1 TC 0 J9 ENVIRON POLLUT BP 287 EP 291 PY 2003 VL 126 IS 3 GA 723WT UT ISI:000185455100002 ER PT J AU KOTLYAKOV, VM MATHER, JR SDASYUK, GV WHITE, GF TI GLOBAL CHANGE - GEOGRAPHICAL APPROACHES (A REVIEW) SO PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA LA English DT Review C1 UNIV DELAWARE,NEWARK,DE 19716. UNIV COLORADO,BOULDER,CO 80309. RP KOTLYAKOV, VM, ACAD SCI USSR,INST GEOG,MOSCOW 109017,USSR. CR 1986, GLOBAL CHANGE GEOSPH 1986, VLIYANIE KHOZYASTVA 1987, BANKI GEOGRAPHICHESK ANDERSON MC, 1987, PUBL, V166, P329 BARRETT EC, 1981, USE SATELLITE DATA R BARRY RG, 1984, AGU GEOPHYSICAL MONO, V29, P221 BURTON I, 1978, ENV HAZARD, V1, P1 CALLAHAN JT, 1984, BIOSCIENCE, V34, P363 CAMILLO PJ, 1983, WATER RESOUR RES, V19, P371 CHORLEY RJ, 1969, WATER EARTH MAN DICKINSON RE, 1985, ADV GEOPHYS, V28, P99 DOKUCHAEV VV, 1892, NASHI CTEPI PREJDI T DOZIER J, 1980, WATER RESOUR RES, V16, P709 DOZIER J, 1987, P INT S LARGE SCALE, V166, P305 GLAZOVSKY NF, 1988, STRUKTURA NOOSPHERY, V1, P38 GORSHKOV SP, 1982, EKZ DINAMICHESKIE PR GOWARD SN, 1987, ADV SPACE RES, V7, P165 GREENLAND D, 1983, GUIDELINES MODERN RE HALL DK, 1985, REMOTE SENSING SNOW HALL DK, 1987, P INT S LARGE SCALE, V166, P403 HARWELL MA, 1985, ENV CONCEQUENCES NUC HEATHCOTE RL, 1985, SCOPE REP, V27, P369 KASPERSON RE, 1985, PUBLIC ADMIN REV, V45, P7 KASPERSON RE, 1988, NUCLEAR RISK ANAL CO KATES RW, 1978, SCOPE8 REP KATES RW, 1983, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V80, P7027 KATES RW, 1985, CLIMATE IMPACT ASSES KOMAR IV, 1975, RATSIONALNOYE ISPOLZ KUSHKAREV AB, 1987, REGIONALNUE GEOINFOR LVOVITCH MI, 1986, VODA ZHIZN VODNYE RE MALONE TF, 1986, ENVIRONMENT, V28, P39 MALONE TF, 1986, ENVIRONMENT, V28, P6 MARBLE DF, 1985, MANUAL REMOTE SENSIN, V1, P923 MARSH GP, 1864, MAN NATURE PHYSICAL MATHER JR, 1984, WATER RESOURCES DIST MILLER DH, 1978, SOURCEBOOK ENV, P63 MINTZ Y, 1983, NASA84973 TECH MEM MITCHELL JK, 1984, DEP GEOGR RES PAP, V209, P33 MUNN RE, 1980, ENV IMPACT ASSESSMEN MYAGKOV SM, 1986, PROBLEMY GEOGRAFII 5, V1, P9 ORIORDAN T, 1986, GEOGRAPHY RESOURCES, V2, P272 PARRY ML, 1987, ASSESSMENT CLIMATE I, V1 PARRY ML, 1987, ASSESSMENT CLIMATE I, V2 RASOOL SI, 1987, ADV SPACE RES, V7, P1 RIABCHIKOV AM, 1980, CRUGOVOROT VESHCHEST RUTTENBERG S, 1983, DRAFT WORKSHOP REPOR SCHIFFER RA, 1983, B AM METEOROL SOC, V64, P779 SELLERS PJ, 1986, J ATMOS SCI, V43, P505 SELLERS PJ, 1988, B AM METEOROL SOC, V69, P22 SHUGART HH, 1984, THEORY FOREST DYNAMI SOKOLOV VE, 1983, 1ST P INT C BIOSPH R, P70 THOMAS WL, 1956, MANS ROLE CHANGING F VELITCHKO AA, 1985, P ACAD SCI USSR G, V6, P25 VERNADSKY VI, 1981, ISBRANNII TRYDI ISTO WARRICK RA, 1986, SCOPE, V29, P393 WASHINGTON WM, 1986, INTRO 3 DIMENSIONAL WHYTE AV, 1980, ENV RISK ASSESSMENT NR 57 TC 5 J9 PROC NAT ACAD SCI USA BP 5986 EP 5991 PY 1988 PD AUG VL 85 IS 16 GA P7818 UT ISI:A1988P781800047 ER PT J AU Henrie, CJ Plane, DA TI Decentralization of the nation's main street: New coastal-proximity-based portrayals of population distribution in the United States, 1950-2000 SO PROFESSIONAL GEOGRAPHER LA English DT Article C1 Pittsburg State Univ, Dept Social Sci, Geog Program, Pittsburg, KS 66762 USA. Univ Arizona, Dept Geog & Reg Dev, Tucson, AZ 85721 USA. RP Henrie, CJ, Pittsburg State Univ, Dept Social Sci, Geog Program, Pittsburg, KS 66762 USA. AB Almost half a century has passed since Jean Gottmann coined the term "Megalopolis" in reference to the almost continuously urbanized stretch of land spanning the East Coast of the United States from southern New Hampshire to northern Virginia. Because a disproportionate concentration of population resided in this Megalopolis, the northeastern core enjoyed an economic and cultural supremacy, and he termed the Megalopolis "The Main Street of the Nation." By the later 1960s and 1970s, however, population migration patterns began to reflect the influence exerted by the emergence of a second national core centered on the large metropolitan areas along the Pacific Coast, especially those of the Los Angeles and Bay Area conurbations in California. Although of different character, this burgeoning concentration of population, economic activity, and cultural influence may reflect the development of a West Coast Megalopolis that could soon rival the original Megalopolis of the Northeastern Corridor. Today, the U.S. population distribution is largely a bicoastal one. This article documents the emergence of this bicoastal population distribution. Using historical census data and GIS technology, we present a number of novel ways to graphically portray and examine this population redistribution phenomenon. The United States is not unique in witnessing an increasing share of its inhabitants clustering in coastal zones. Current critical policy concerns about the worldwide vulnerability of coastal populations have focused the need for better coastal population estimates and better mapping methods for portraying population redistribution trends. CR *ESRI, 2004, ARCGIS 9 *UN ENV PROGR, 2005, PHYS ALT DESTR HAB P *US CENS BUR, 1924, STAT ATL US 1924 *US CENS BUR, 1950, CENS POP *US CENS BUR, 1960, CENS POP *US CENS BUR, 1970, CENS POP *US CENS BUR, 1980, CENS POP *US CENS BUR, 1990, CENS POP *US CENS BUR, 2000, CENS POP *US CENS BUR, 2001, CTR POP COMP 1950 19 *US CENS BUR, 2001, MEAN CTR POP US 1790 *US CENS BUR, 2001, MED CTR POP US 1880 ABOUFADEL E, 2006, PROF GEOGR, V58, P65 COHEN JE, 1997, SCIENCE, V278, P1211 FREY WH, 1990, POPULATION B, V45, P1 GOTTMANN J, 1961, MEGALOPOLIS URBANIZE KIRSCH SL, 1993, CALIFORNIA GEOGRAPHE, V63, P59 MCHUGH KE, 1992, J REGIONAL SCI, V32, P428 NICHOLLS RJ, 1995, GEOJOURNAL, V37, P369 NICHOLLS RJ, 2002, EOS T AM GEOPHYS UN, V83, P301 NICHOLLS RJ, 2002, EOS T AM GEOPHYS UN, V83, P305 OTTOBLIESNER BL, 2006, SCIENCE, V311, P1751 PLANE DA, 1983, SOCIO ECON PLAN SCI, V17, P251 PLANE DA, 1984, ECON GEOGR, V60, P294 PLANE DA, 1989, INT REGIONAL SCI REV, V12, P263 PLANE DA, 1994, GEOGRAPHICAL ANAL PO PLANE DA, 1999, PROF GEOGR, V51, P1 PLANE DA, 2005, YB ASS PACIFIC COAST, V67, P9 RAPPAPORT J, 2003, J ECON GROWTH, V8, P5 ROSEMAN CC, 1982, URBAN GEOGR, V3, P22 SMALL C, 2000, ENV GEOSCIENCES, V7, P3 SMALL C, 2003, J COASTAL RES, V19, P584 SWANSON DA, 2004, METHODS MAT DEMOGRAP TIMMERMAN P, 1997, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V7, P205 TURNER RK, 1996, ENVIRON MANAGE, V20, P159 ULLMAN E, 1958, PAPERS P REGIONAL SC, V4, P179 NR 36 TC 0 J9 PROF GEOGR BP 448 EP 459 PY 2006 PD NOV VL 58 IS 4 GA 096HV UT ISI:000241369100008 ER PT J AU Hurd, BH Leary, N Jones, R Smith, JB TI Relative regional vulnerability of water resources to climate change SO JOURNAL OF THE AMERICAN WATER RESOURCES ASSOCIATION LA English DT Article C1 Stratus Consulting Inc, Boulder, CO 80306 USA. IPCC Working Grp 2, Washington, DC 20024 USA. RP Hurd, BH, Stratus Consulting Inc, POB 4059, Boulder, CO 80306 USA. AB Changes in global climate may alter hydrologic conditions and have a variety of effects on human settlements and ecological systems. The effects include changes in water supply and quality for domestic, irrigation, recreational, commercial, and industrial uses; in instream flows that support aquatic ecosystems, recreation uses, hydropower, navigation, and wastewater assimilation; in wetland extent and productivity that support fish, wildlife, and wastewater assimilation; and in the frequency and severity of floods. Watersheds where water resources are stressed under current climate are most likely to be vulnerable to changes in mean climate-and extreme events. This study identified key aspects of water supply and use that could be adversely affected by climate change, developed measures and criteria useful for assessing the vulnerability of regional water resources and water dependent resources to climate change, developed a regional database of water sensitive variables consistent with the vulnerability measures, and applied the criteria in a regional study of the vulnerability of U.S. water resources. Key findings highlight the vulnerability of consumptive uses in the western and, in particular, the southwestern United States. However, southern United States watersheds are relatively more vulnerable to changes in water quality, flooding, and other instream uses. CR *US EPA, 1997, EPA841R97010 OFF WAT FLOOD PK, 1990, WATER RIGHT 50 STATE, CH5 FREDERICK KD, 1999, WATER GLOBAL CLIMATE GLEICK PH, 1990, CLIMATE CHANGE US WA, P223 HOUGHTON JT, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995 HURD BH, 1998, IMPACT CLIMATE CHANG, P133 HURD BH, 1999, WATER CLIMATE CHANGE LANE ME, IN PRESS ASCE J WATE ROGERS P, 1997, MEASURING ENV QUALIT WIGLEY TML, 1999, SCI CLIMATE CHANGE G NR 10 TC 4 J9 J AM WATER RESOUR ASSOC BP 1399 EP 1409 PY 1999 PD DEC VL 35 IS 6 GA 271ZB UT ISI:000084624600010 ER PT J AU Rounsevell, MDA Berry, PM Harrison, PA TI Future environmental change impacts on rural land use and biodiversity: a synthesis of the ACCELERATES project SO ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE & POLICY LA English DT Article C1 Univ Catholique Louvain, Dept Geog, B-1348 Louvain, Belgium. Univ Oxford, Ctr Environm, Environm Change Inst, Oxford OX1 3QY, England. RP Rounsevell, MDA, Univ Catholique Louvain, Dept Geog, Pl Pasteur 3, B-1348 Louvain, Belgium. AB The ACCELERATES project aimed to assess the vulnerability of European agro-ecosystems to environmental change in support of the conventions of climate change and biological diversity. This was based on a study of the impact of environmental change on land use and biodiversity (for selected species and habitats) in agro-ecosystems. The approach integrated existing models of agricultural land use, species distribution and habitat fragmentation within a common scenario framework, so that impacts could be synthesised for different global change problems. The results suggest that policy and conservation strategies should not tackle the vulnerability of agriculture and biodiversity independently. Potential changes within one sector may have important opportunities for another sector that policy could fail to exploit, or positive outcomes in one sector could have adverse effects elsewhere. For example, there are potential benefits to conservation management that arise from agricultural land abandonment or extensification. However, agricultural land abandonment increases the vulnerability of farmers. Society, through policy, will need, therefore, to resolve the conflicts that are likely to arise between agriculture and the conservation of biodiversity in the future. The scientific community can contribute to this process by seeking to reduce the uncertainties that bedevil future environmental change assessments, through the development of better and more integrated methods (of modelling and scenario development) to analyse and interpret cross-sectoral vulnerability. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *IPCC, 2001, CLIM CHANG 2001 SCI ABILDTRUP J, 2006, ENVIRON SCI POLICY, V9, P101 ALCAMO J, SEARCHING FUTURE LAN, CH8 ARAUJO MB, 2005, GLOBAL CHANGE BIOL, V11, P1504 AUDSLEY E, 2006, ENVIRON SCI POLICY, V9, P148 BERRY PM, 2005, CLIMATE CHANGE NATUR BERRY PM, 2006, ENVIRON SCI POLICY, V9, P189 CARTER TR, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, P145 DELBARRIO G, 2000, 5 C NAC MED AMB COM, P1 DELBARRIO G, 2006, ENVIRON SCI POLICY, V9, P129 DRUCKER GRF, 2000, ECNC TECHNICAL REPOR, V9 ERHARD M, 2002, TECHNICAL NOTE ACCOM EWERT F, 2005, AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON, V107, P101 GIUPPONI C, 2006, ENVIRON SCI POLICY, V9, P163 HARRISON PA, 2006, ENVIRON SCI POLICY, V9, P116 HOFFMANN LB, 2000, EUROPEAN CTR NATURE, V16 HOLMAN IP, 2005, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V71, P43 HOLMAN IP, 2005, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V71, P9 LAMBIN EF, 2000, AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON, V82, P321 MITCHELL TD, 2004, 55 TYND CTR NAKICENOVIC N, 2000, SPECIAL REPORT EMISS PARMESAN C, 2003, NATURE, V421, P37 PEARSON RG, 2002, ECOL MODEL, V154, P289 PEARSON RG, 2003, GLOBAL ECOL BIOGEOGR, V12, P361 PEARSON RG, 2004, ECOGRAPHY, V27, P285 PEARSON RG, 2005, BIOL CONSERV, V123, P389 ROGERS C, 2004, ENV LAW REV, V6, P69 ROUNSEVELL MDA, IN PRESS AGR ECOSYST ROUNSEVELL MDA, 2003, AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON, V95, P465 ROUNSEVELL MDA, 2005, AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON, V107, P117 SCHMIT C, 2006, ENVIRON SCI POLICY, V9, P174 NR 31 TC 2 J9 ENVIRON SCI POLICY BP 93 EP 100 PY 2006 VL 9 IS 2 GA 028TG UT ISI:000236511100001 ER PT J AU White, N Sutherst, RW Hall, N Whish-Wilson, P TI The vulnerability of the Australian beef industry to impacts of the cattle tick (Boophilus microplus) under climate change SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 Univ Queensland, CRC Trop Pest Management, Brisbane, Qld 4072, Australia. Australian Bur Agr Resource Econ, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia. RP White, N, Univ S Pacific, Dept Biol, POB 1168, Suva, Fiji. AB An integrated assessment is presented of the potential impacts of the cattle tick (Boophilus microplus Canestrini) on the Australian beef industry under climate change. The project was carried out as a case study to test an impact assessment approach that was designed to integrate biological, production and socio-economic impacts on managed and natural systems. A climate-driven, tick population model was run for European, zebu and crossbred cattle breeds having different levels of resistance to cattle ticks. A geographical information system (GIS) was used to organise spatial data on climate scenarios and industry statistics and to undertake regional analyses. A comparison was made of the two available approaches to conducting impact assessments, namely a bottom-up approach using sensitivity analysis and a top-down approach using climate change scenarios from a global circulation model (GCM) (CSIRO, 1996). The output, in terms of the abundance of tick populations and reductions in cattle productivity for each breed showed significant expansions in potential geographical impacts. In the absence of any adaptation measures, the results indicated changes in the losses in live weight gain of cattle tick ranging from 7780 tonnes per year by 2030 to 21637 tonnes per year by 2100, in comparison with estimates for current losses of 6594 tonnes per year. The principal adaptation options available to the beef industry are to switch to breeds that are more resistant to cattle ticks, or to increase the frequency of treatments with various tick control products. In this paper we focus on switching breeds as an adaptive measure when appropriate damage thresholds are triggered under the climate change scenarios. When adaptation measures were put in place, the losses ranged from 4962 tonnes in 2030 to 5619 tonnes in 2100 compared with 2636 tonnes at present if all producers adopted the optimal breed structure. Optimal breed structure was defined as one that would prevent tick numbers per animal exceeding 100 ticks per animal for European and 700 ticks per animal for crossbred breeds of cattle in any week of the year under a tick control strategy that was suitable for present climatic conditions. The lower threshold for European breeds reflects their vulnerability to explosive increases in numbers because of their low resistance to ticks. The results of the analyses using the GCM scenarios were used in an economic model to calculate costs of lost live-weight gain for 2030, 2070 and 2100. The greatest increases in costs were incurred in the southern parts of the current distribution in Queensland and potentially in northern New South Wales if the present quarantine barrier failed. Given the great uncertainty of the nature of possible regional changes in climate, analyses of the sensitivity of losses in live weight gain to changes in climatic variables were also undertaken. The analyses included a measure of likely impacts of cattle tick on the beef cattle industry, in the absence of adaptation measures, as a baseline measure of sensitivity. The likely impacts on crossbred cattle were insensitive to the climatic variables. When adaptive breed changes were allowed, the economic impacts on the industry were insensitive to the GCM scenarios. This suggests that, at least in this instance, reducing the uncertainties in climate change scenarios is not a priority if the adaptation strategies can be implemented in a cost-effective manner. Finally we made a qualitative assessment of the sustainability and robustness of alternative approaches to adaptation and assessed regional vulnerability to cattle tick under climate change. The conclusions were so strongly dependent on assumptions about the future of other global changes, in particular the ability to maintain quarantine barriers and to retain effective acaricides at comparable costs to the present, that we strongly recommend that risk assessments of climate change extend to all relevant variables in involved in global change where possible. 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It reviews what is known, unknown, uncertain and controversial about the potential impacts of climate change and finds that: the composition and geographic distribution of many ecosystems will shift; some regions, especially in the tropics and subtropics, may suffer significantly adverse consequences for food security, even though the effects of climate change on global food production may prove small to moderate; there could be an increase in a wide range of human diseases, including mortality, and illnes due to heat waves and extreme weather events, extensions in the potential transmission of vector-borne diseases, such as malaria, and regional declines in nutritional status; some countries will face threats to sustainable development from losses of human habitat due to sea-level rise, reductions in water quality and quantity, and disruptions from extreme events; technological advances have increased the range of adaptation and mitigation options, and offer exciting opportunities for reducing emissions, but are not currently available in all regions of the world. CR DOWNING TE, 1992, CLIMATE CHANGE VULNE EASTERLING WE, 1993, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V24, P23 NR 2 TC 0 BP 1 EP 878 PY 1996 VL 1 ER PT J AU HAQUE, CE TI HUMAN ADJUSTMENTS TO RIVER BANK EROSION HAZARD IN THE JAMUNA FLOODPLAIN, BANGLADESH SO HUMAN ECOLOGY LA English DT Article C1 UNIV MANITOBA,DEPT GEOG,WINNIPEG R3T 2N2,MANITOBA,CANADA. CR *BANGL BUR STAT, 1984, 1981 BANGL POP CENS *BANGL BUR STAT, 1984, STAT YB BANGL 1983 1 BURTON I, 1978, ENV HAZARD, V1, P1 CHOWDHURY MI, 1973, J BANGLADESH NATIONA, V1, P19 COLEMAN JM, 1969, SEDIMENT GEOL, V3, P129 CURREY B, 1979, THESIS U HAWAII HONO DIXON C, 1978, SAMPLING METHODS GEO HAQUE CE, 1985, WORKSHOP IMPACT RIVE HAQUE CE, 1988, GEOGR REV, V78, P20 HOQUE N, 1983, LANSAT IMAGE PROCESS ISLAM MA, 1974, NATURAL HAZARDS LOCA ISLAM MA, 1980, NATIONAL GEOGRAPHICA, V26, P50 JANNUZI FT, 1980, AGRARIAN STRUCTURE B KATES RW, 1971, ECON GEOGR, V47, P438 KATES RW, 1986, GEOGRAPHY RESOURCES, V1 KHAN AR, 1985, WORKSHOP IMPACT RIVE KISH L, 1965, SURVEY SAMPLING NAGPAUL H, 1984, INDIAN J SOC RES, V25, P68 PAUL BK, 1984, HUM ECOL, V12, P3 RALPH KA, 1975, THESIS U HAWAII HONO RAMCHANDARAN R, 1974, NATURAL HAZARDS LOCA ROGGE JR, 1987, ANN M ASS AM GEOGRAP ROWNTREE RA, 1974, NATURAL HAZARDS LOCA TARAFDAR MR, 1974, STUDIES BANGLADESH G ZAMAN MQ, 1982, S ASIAN ANTHR, V3, P39 NR 25 TC 3 J9 HUM ECOL BP 421 EP 437 PY 1988 PD DEC VL 16 IS 4 GA AC273 UT ISI:A1988AC27300004 ER PT J AU Panario, D Pineiro, G TI Vulnerability of oceanic dune systems under wind pattern change scenarios in Uruguay SO CLIMATE RESEARCH LA English DT Article C1 Univ Republica, Fac Ciencias, Unidad Ciencias Epigenesis, Montevideo, Uruguay. RP Panario, D, Univ Republica, Fac Ciencias, Unidad Ciencias Epigenesis, Tristan Narvaja 1674, Montevideo, Uruguay. AB The dynamics of the large dune systems adjacent to lowlands and to the oceanic coastline in Uruguay is likely to be affected both by sea level rise and wind circulation patterns. A simple eolian sand transport model, which relates wind friction, frequency and direction to sand transport, was used to estimate annual sand transport as a measure of the impact of potential climate changes on the stability of dune systems and beaches. The model was adjusted to local conditions using real wind-matrix and eolian-transport data from the past 5 decades. The climate change scenarios considered assume a positive or negative 10% change in the frequency of the South Atlantic Anticyclone winds, since its position determines the near-surface wind circulation pattern. Results obtained at the Cabo Polonio study area indicate that, in the medium and long term, coastal recession is likely to occur due to a decrease in coastal dunefield activity induced by changes in wind pattern. It was also observed that, should current anthropogenic impact in the area remain unchanged, the situation would be equally serious even under a non-climate-change scenario. This is due to the fact that the forestation process that has taken place over the past 20 yr has caused the immobilization of a significant portion of the dune system, preventing natural sand transfer to the coast. In recent years a still insufficient deforestation effort, intended to stop coastline recession, has taken place. CR *NAT RES COUNC, 1994, OC ROL GLOB CHANG ANTON D, 1974, 28 C BRAS GEOL PORT, V3, P151 BAGNOLD RA, 1941, PHYSICS BLOWN SAND D BROOKFIELD M, 1970, Z GEOMORPHOL S, V10, P121 CASTEL IIY, 1988, EARTH SURF PROCESSES, V13, P501 CHAPMAN DM, 1990, EARTH SURF PROCESSES, V15, P751 DINGLER JR, 1992, SEDIMENTOLOGY, V39, P1031 FRYBERGER SG, 1979, US GEOLOGICAL SURVEY, V1052, P137 FRYBERGER SG, 1984, SEDIMENTOLOGY, V31, P413 HESP PA, 1990, COASTAL DUNES FORM P, P253 HSU SA, 1973, J GEOL, V81, P739 HUNTER RE, 1983, GEOL SOC AM BULL, V94, P1450 IRIONDO MH, 1993, PALAEOGEOGR PALAEOCL, V101, P209 LEATHERMAN SP, 1978, SEDIMENTOLOGY, V25, P303 LETTAU K, 1969, Z GEOMORPHOL, V13, P182 NORDSTROM KF, 1992, SEDIMENTOLOGY, V39, P769 PANARIO D, 1992, DINAMICA SEDIMENTARI PLUIS JLA, 1992, EARTH SURF PROCESSES, V17, P663 PYE K, 1993, GEOLOGICAL SOC SPECI, V72 SARRE RD, 1989, EARTH SURF PROCESSES, V14, P247 SVASEK JN, 1974, SEDIMENTOLOGY, V21, P311 NR 21 TC 1 J9 CLIMATE RES BP 67 EP 72 PY 1997 PD DEC 29 VL 9 IS 1-2 GA ZD200 UT ISI:000072661400011 ER PT J AU Janssen, MA Schoon, ML Ke, WM Borner, K TI Scholarly networks on resilience, vulnerability and adaptation within the human dimensions of global environmental change SO GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS LA English DT Article C1 Arizona State Univ, Sch Human Evolut & Social Change, Tempe, AZ 85287 USA. Arizona State Univ, Dept Comp Sci & Engn, Tempe, AZ 85287 USA. Indiana Univ, Workshop Polit Theory & Policy Anal, Bloomington, IN 47405 USA. Indiana Univ, Sch Publ & Environm Affairs, Bloomington, IN 47405 USA. Indiana Univ, Sch Lib & Environm Sci, Bloomington, IN 47405 USA. RP Janssen, MA, Arizona State Univ, Sch Human Evolut & Social Change, Box 872402, Tempe, AZ 85287 USA. AB This paper presents the results of a bibliometric analysis of the knowledge domains resilience, vulnerability and adaptation within the research activities on human dimensions of global environmental change. We analyzed how 2286 publications between 1967 and 2005 are related in terms of co-authorship relations, and citation relations. The number of publications in the three knowledge domains increased rapidly between 1995 and 2005. However, the resilience knowledge domain is only weakly connected with the other two domains in terms of co-authorships and citations. The resilience knowledge domain has a background in ecology and mathematics with a focus on theoretical models, while the vulnerability and adaptation knowledge domains have a background in geography and natural hazards research with a focus on case studies and climate change research. There is an increasing number of cross citations and papers classified in multiple knowledge domains. This seems to indicate an increasing integration of the different knowledge domains. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR ADGER WN, 1999, WORLD DEV, V27, P249 ADGER WN, 2000, PROG HUM GEOG, V24, P347 ADGER WN, 2006, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V16, P268 ARROW K, 1995, SCIENCE, V268, P520 BATAGELJ V, 1997, PAJEK PROGRAM PACKAG BERKES F, 1998, LINKING SOCIAL ECOLO, V1, P1 BERKES F, 2003, NAVIGATING SOCIAL EC, V1, P1 BLAIKIE P, 1987, LAND DEGRADATION SOC BLAIKIE PM, 1994, RISK NATURAL HAZARDS, V1, P1 BOHLE HG, 1994, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V4, P37 BORNER K, 2003, ANNU REV INFORM SCI, V37, P179 BOYACK KW, 2004, SAND20042779J SAND N BURTON I, 1978, ENV HAZARD, V1, P1 BUTZER KW, 1980, PROF GEOGR, V32, P269 CARPENTER SR, 2001, ECOSYSTEMS, V4, P765 CARPENTER SR, 1999, ECOL APPL, V9, P751 CHAMBERS R, 1989, IDS B, V20, P1 CLARK WC, 1985, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V7, P5 COSTANZA R, 1997, NATURE, V387, P253 CUTTER SL, 1996, PROG HUM GEOG, V20, P529 CUTTER SL, 2003, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V93, P1 DOW KM, 1992, GEOFORUM, V23, P417 EASTERLING WE, 1996, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V80, P1 FOLKE C, 2006, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V16, P253 FRIEDEL MH, 1991, J RANGE MANAGE, V44, P422 GALLOPIN GC, 2006, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V16, P293 GARFIELD E, 2004, J INFORM SCI, V30, P119 GUIMERA R, 2005, SCIENCE, V308, P697 GUNDERSON LH, 1995, BARRIERS BRIDGES REN, V1, P1 GUNDERSON LH, 2000, ANNU REV ECOL SYST, V31, P425 GUNDERSON LH, 2002, PANARCHY UNDERSTANDI, V1, P1 HARDIN G, 1968, SCIENCE, V162, P1243 HEWITT K, 1997, REGIONS RISK GEOGRAP, V1, P1 HOLLING CS, 1973, ANNUAL REV ECOLOGY S, V4, P1 HOLLING CS, 1978, ADAPTIVE ENV ASSESSM HOLLING CS, 1986, SUSTAINABLE DEV BIOS, V1, P1 HOLLING CS, 1992, ECOL MONOGR, V62, P447 HOLLING CS, 1996, CONSERV BIOL, V10, P328 HOLLING CS, 1996, ENG ECOLOGICAL CONST, P31 IONESCU C, 2006, IN PRESS ENV MODELIN KASPERSON JX, 1995, REGIONS RISK, V1, P1 KATES RW, 2001, SCIENCE, V292, P641 KELLY PM, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V47, P325 KLEIN RJT, 1999, AMBIO, V28, P182 LAYCOCK WA, 1991, J RANGE MANAGE, V44, P426 LEVIN SA, 1992, ECOLOGY, V73, P1943 LIVERMAN DM, 1990, UNDERSTANDING GLOBAL, V1, P27 LUDWIG D, 1978, J ANIM ECOL, V47, P315 LUDWIG D, 1993, SCIENCE, V260, P17 MAY RM, 1977, NATURE, V269, P471 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 OSTROM E, 1990, GOVERNING COMMONS EV PETERSON GD, 1998, ECOSYSTEMS, V1, P6 PIMM SL, 1984, NATURE, V307, P321 RAPPAPORT RA, 1967, PIGS ANCESTORS RITUA, V1, P1 RAPPAPORT RA, 1977, EVOLUTION SOCIAL SYS, V1, P49 REILLY JM, 1994, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V4, P24 RIBOT JC, 1996, CLIMATE VARIABILITY, V1, P1 ROSENBERG NJ, 1992, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V21, P385 ROSENZWEIG C, 1994, NATURE, V367, P133 SCHEFFER M, 2001, NATURE, V413, P591 SCHNEIDER SH, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P203 SEN AK, 1981, POVERTY FAMINES ESSA, V1, P1 SHIFFRIN RM, 2004, P NATL ACAD SCI U S1, V101, P5183 SMIT B, 1996, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V33, P7 SMIT B, 1999, MITIGATION ADAPTATIO, V4, P199 SMIT B, 2006, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V16, P282 SMITH JB, 1996, CLIMATE RES, V6, P193 SMIT B, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P223 SMITHERS J, 1997, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V7, P129 SWIFT J, 1989, IDS B, V20, P8 TIMMERMAN P, 1981, ENV MONOGRAPH I ENV, V1, P1 TOL RSJ, 1998, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V8, P109 VITOUSEK PM, 1997, SCIENCE, V277, P494 WALKER BH, 1981, J ECOL, V69, P473 WALTERS CJ, 1986, ADAPTIVE MANAGEMENT WALTERS CJ, 1990, ECOLOGY, V71, P2060 WATSON RT, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, V1, P1 WATSON RT, 1998, REGIONAL IMPACTS CLI, V1, P1 WATTS MJ, 1993, PROG HUM GEOG, V17, P43 WESTOBY M, 1989, J RANGE MANAGE, V42, P266 WHITE GF, 1975, ASSESSMENT RES NATUR, V1, P1 NR 82 TC 4 J9 GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANGE BP 240 EP 252 PY 2006 PD AUG VL 16 IS 3 GA 073OJ UT ISI:000239752200003 ER PT J AU Kottak, CP TI An anthropological take on sustainable development: A comparative study of change SO HUMAN ORGANIZATION LA English DT Article C1 Univ Michigan, Dept Anthropol, Ann Arbor, MI 48109 USA. RP Kottak, CP, Univ Michigan, Dept Anthropol, Ann Arbor, MI 48109 USA. AB Anthropologists can use longitudinal, comparative, and multiscale research to illuminate aspects of global change and development. Goals and procedures of the emerging field of sustainability science are examined here in relation to those of the linkages methodology and other multisited, historical, and transnational approaches in recent anthropology. Conclusions about the sustainability of development emerge from field studies in Arembepe, Brazil, and Ivato, Madagascar. The contrasts between Arembepe and Ivato, and the regions and nations that include them, are sharp and almost certainly irreversible. Madagascar suffers from an overdose of environmentalism, while Brazil has been dominated by developmental ism. Arembepe now has a sustainable diversified economy and cultural contacts linking its future with the dynamics of capitalist globalization. Ivato, by contrast, is in a region and nation with dramatically increasing population and diminishing natural resources but no investment stream to provide significant employment alternatives. In future years Ivato and similar farming communities may have little left of their past to sustain. CR *MILL CHEM, 2002, RESP CAR REP BAH BRA *WORLD BANK, 2003, WORLD DEV IND BURN BE, 1980, HIST BRAZIL EPSTEIN AL, 1978, CRAFT SOCIAL ANTHROP GLUCKMAN M, 1940, BANTU STUDIES, V14, P1 GOLD MV, 1999, SUST AGR DEF TERM GUPTA A, 1997, ANTHROPOLOGICAL LOCA GUPTA A, 1997, CULTURE POWER PLACE GUPTA A, 1997, CULTURE POWER PLACE, P33 KATES RW, 2001, SCIENCE, V292, P641 KECK A, 1994, POPULATION GROWTH SH KOTTAK C, 1994, ASSESSING CULTURAL A, P396 KOTTAK CP, 1980, PAST PRESENT HIST EC KOTTAK CP, 1990, PRIME TIME SOC ANTHR KOTTAK CP, 1993, HUM ORGAN, V52, P335 KOTTAK CP, 1994, 940005 CIESIN KOTTAK CP, 1999, AM ANTHROPOL, V101, P23 KOTTAK CP, 1999, ASSAULT PARADISE SOC LEVISTRAUSS C, 1967, STRUCTURAL ANTHROPOL MINTZ S, 1985, SWEETNESS POWER PLAC ROACH J, 2004, RARE ANIMALS AFRICA ROSEBERRY W, 1988, ANNU REV ANTHROPOL, V17, P161 STEWARD J, 1950, AREA RES THEORY PRAC STEWARD J, 1955, THEORY CULTURE CHANG STEWARD J, 1956, PEOPLE PUERTO RICO VANVELSEN J, 1979, CRAFT SOCIAL ANTHROL, P129 WOLF E, 1969, PEASANT WARS 29 CENT WOLF E, 1982, EUROPE PEOPLE HIST NR 28 TC 0 J9 HUM ORGAN BP 501 EP 510 PY 2004 PD WIN VL 63 IS 4 GA 880MX UT ISI:000225795000011 ER PT J AU Tal, A Linkov, I TI Role of comparative risk assessment in addressing environmental security in the Middle East SO RISK ANALYSIS LA English DT Article C1 Cambridge Environm Inc, Cambridge, MA 02141 USA. RP Linkov, I, Cambridge Environm Inc, 58 Charles St, Cambridge, MA 02141 USA. AB During the 21st century, environmental challenges are likely to intensify across the world and possibly lead to violent conflicts. Strategies for conflict avoidance will be incomplete unless they recognize, discuss, and mitigate regional environmental stress factors. Comparative risk assessment (CRA) is one of the most critical tools emerging to influence modern environmental policies and is increasingly used to create a common language to help reconcile competing interests in development and environmental disputes around the world. This article considers the environmental challenges facing the Middle East in light of their "transboundary" nature and proposes CRA as a framework for setting environmental priorities and reducing tensions in the region. CR 2002, COMP RISK PROJECT *ECOPEACE, 1997, UPD INV NEW DEV PROJ *IDRC, 1998, ALT APPR MAN CONFL O *ISR MIN ENV, 2003, RISK ASS AIR POLL TE *JAP MIN FOR AFF, 1999, WORK GROUP ENV GRAV *NETH MIN FOR AFF, 1996, GAZ ENV PROF *PAL ENV QUAL AUTH, 2002, 1 PAL NAT REP SUST *UNDP, 2002, SUST DEV *US AID, 1994, 3980355 USAID *US EPA, 1993, GUID COMP RISKS SETT *US WAT NEWS, 2002, JORD SEEKS COOP ISR *WORLD BANK, 1998, POLL PREV AB HDB CLE AMERY HA, 2000, WATER MIDDLE E GEOGR ANDREWS CJ, 2002, HUMBLE ANAL PRACTICE ASSAF K, 1997, OUR SHARED ENV, P292 BECKER N, 1996, INT J WATER RESOUR D, V12, P17 BELLISARI A, 1994, J PALESTINE STUD, V23, P52 DAVIES JC, 1996, COMP ENV RISKS TOOLS FINKEL A, 1995, WORST THINGS 1 DEBAT FISHER FM, 1995, WATER RESOURCES DEV, V11, P377 GABBAY S, 2002, ENV ISRAEL GARB Y, 1997, T ISRAEL HIGHWAY DO GASITH A, 1999, ANNU REV ECOL SYST, V30, P51 GUTENSON D, 1997, DUKE ENV LAW POLICY, V8, P69 HIERLMEIER J, 2002, GEORGETOWN INT ENV L, V14, P767 HIRSCH M, 1994, ISRAEL LAW REV, V28, P374 HOMERDIXON TF, 1991, INT SECURITY, V16, P76 HOSEIN H, 1999, DYING DEAD SEA JONES K, 1997, RETROSPECTIVE 10 YEA KELLEY LA, 1997, IN SESSION-PSYCHOTH, V3, P5 KONISKY DM, 1999, COMP RISK PROJECTS M LINKOV I, 2004, COMP RISK ASSESSMENT LIVING L, 2001, JORDAN RIVER THREATE MOREL B, UNPUB ENV SECURITY M MYERS N, 1989, FOREIGN POLICY, P23 NAFF T, 1984, WATER MIDDLE E COOPE ROSEN D, 2002, LITTORAL CHANGING CO SCOTT GL, 1995, ILSA J INT COMP L, V2, P23 SULTAN A, 2000, JORDAN IND JOINT GAT TAL A, 1995, SUSTAINABILITY ENERG TAL A, 1997, ENV FORUM, V14, P13 TAL A, 1997, ENVIRON SCI TECHNOL, V30, P470 TAL A, 1997, JERUSALEM REPOR 1030 TALITMAN D, 2003, NEW YORK U ENV LAW J, V11, P414 TITUS JG, 1990, LAND USE POLICY, V7, P138 TROLLDALEN JM, 1997, NATURAL RESOURCES FO, V21, P101 YARON D, 1994, RESOUR ENERGY ECON, V16, P271 NR 47 TC 0 J9 RISK ANAL BP 1243 EP 1248 PY 2004 PD OCT VL 24 IS 5 GA 875ML UT ISI:000225424400015 ER PT J AU Fowler, HJ Kilsby, CG O'Connell, PE TI Modeling the impacts of climatic change and variability on the reliability, resilience, and vulnerability of a water resource system SO WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH LA English DT Article C1 Univ Newcastle Upon Tyne, Water Resource Syst Res Lab, Sch Civil Engn & Geosci, Newcastle Upon Tyne NE1 7RU, Tyne & Wear, England. RP Fowler, HJ, Univ Newcastle Upon Tyne, Water Resource Syst Res Lab, Sch Civil Engn & Geosci, Cassie Bldg, Newcastle Upon Tyne NE1 7RU, Tyne & Wear, England. AB [1] During the last decade, there have been increasing concerns over water resource drought in northern England, brought about by the 1995 Yorkshire drought with an estimated 5-month rainfall return period of 200 years. The impacts of climatic change and variability on water resource reliability, resilience, and vulnerability in this region are examined by modeling changes to weather type frequency, mean rainfall statistics, and potential evapotranspiration. Results indicate future improvements in water resource reliability due to increased winter rainfall but reductions in resource resilience and an increased vulnerability to drought. Severe droughts comparable to that of 1995 show only a slight increase in frequency by 2080. However, there are significant increases in both the magnitude and duration of severe water resource drought, as a consequence of summer rainfall reductions and increased climatic variability. This research provides a basis for the future planning and management of the Yorkshire water resource system. CR *ASCE TASK COMM SU, 1998, SUST CRIT WAT RES SY *DEP ENV WELSH OFF, 1996, WAT RES SUPPL AG ACT BRYANT SJ, 1994, J INST WATER ENV MAN, V8, P39 COWPERTWAIT PSP, 1996, J HYDROL, V175, P17 COWPERTWAIT PSP, 1996, J HYDROL, V175, P47 DOORENBOS J, 1984, 24 FAO IRR DUAN QY, 1992, WATER RESOUR RES, V28, P1015 FOWLER HJ, 2000, HYDROL EARTH SYST SC, V4, P263 FOWLER HJ, 2002, INT J CLIMATOL, V22, P843 FOWLER HJ, 2002, J HYDROL, V262, P177 HASHIMOTO T, 1982, WATER RESOUR RES, V18, P14 HASHIMOTO T, 1982, WATER RESOUR RES, V18, P21 HEWETT BAO, 1993, ENG CLIMATE CHANGE, P38 HULME M, 1998, 1 UKCIP CLIM RES UN HULME M, 2002, CLIMATE CHANGE SCENA HURRELL JW, 1995, SCIENCE, V269, P676 JENKINSON AF, 1977, 62 BRACKN MET OFF SY JONES PD, 1997, INT J CLIMATOL, V17, P1433 KAY PA, 2000, WATER INT, V25, P617 LAMB HH, 1972, 116 HER MAJ STN OFF LANE ME, 1999, J WATER RES PL-ASCE, V125, P194 LETTENMAIER DP, 1999, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V43, P537 MACDONALD M, 1996, 35894BA011B YORKSH W MACDONALD M, 1997, 39413BA011B YORKSH W MAIER HR, 2001, WATER RESOUR RES, V37, P779 MARSH TJ, 1996, P I CIVIL ENG-WATER, V118, P189 MARSH TJ, 1996, WEATHER, V51, P46 MAYES JC, 1995, J CHART INST WATER E, V9, P531 NEW M, 1999, J CLIMATE, V12, P829 NEW M, 2000, J CLIMATE, V13, P2217 TODINI E, 1996, J HYDROL, V175, P339 VOGEL RM, 1999, J WATER RES PL-ASCE, V125, P245 WALKER S, 1998, P I CIVIL ENG-WATER, V130, P207 WARDLAW RB, 1996, J CHART INST WATER E, V10, P355 WEDGBROW CS, 2002, INT J CLIMATOL, V22, P219 WOOD AW, 1997, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V37, P203 NR 36 TC 0 J9 WATER RESOUR RES PY 2003 PD AUG 28 VL 39 IS 8 GA 720HJ UT ISI:000185255100003 ER PT J AU O'Hare, G TI Hurricane 07B in the Godavari Delta, Andhra Pradesh, India: vulnerability, mitigation and the spatial impact SO GEOGRAPHICAL JOURNAL LA English DT Article C1 Univ Derby, Div Geog, Derby DE22 1GB, England. RP O'Hare, G, Univ Derby, Div Geog, Kedleston Rd, Derby DE22 1GB, England. AB Few hurricane impact studies provide robust spatial parameters of damage or relate geographical patterns of destruction accurately to storm trajectories or agencies. A detailed spatial analysis is, therefore, presented of the destruction caused by tropical hurricane 07B which made landfall on 6/7 November 1996 over the Godavari Delta region, Andhra Pradesh, eastern India. Patterns of destruction by storm surge, wind and flood water are quantitatively mapped for death tolls, house destruction and agricultural damage using local administrative (mandal) data bases. Results show that most impact occurred near the coast, but a well-defined path of destruction across the central part of the delta can be identified. Such mapping studies fail to indicate the types of individuals and social groups most affected by the storm hazard and their response to it. An investigation of landowning farmers, female migrant rural labourers and fishing communities in the delta shows that poverty and social ordering in Indian society puts differential limits on the risk reduction abilities of individuals and social groups in the face of the cyclone hazard. The paper also demonstrates that 'top down' institutional measures to reduce the effects of storm damage such as those introduced in the aftermath of hurricane 07B, including early storm warning and evacuation procedures and rehabilitation programmes, remain largely ineffective. It is suggested that the introduction of more 'bottom up' community-based programmes which seek to improve the risk awareness and risk avoiding abilities of affected individuals and groups would be much more beneficial. The case material on hurricane 07B and its effects are placed in context by reviewing and updating long and medium-term time series records of storm frequencies and impacts in the Bay of Bengal and particularly along the eastern coastline of India. 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RP Wilbanks, TJ, Oak Ridge Natl Lab, Div Environm Sci, Oak Ridge, TN 37831 USA. AB This paper reports on investigations of two propositions. First, it is easy to overestimate the importance of climate change in the larger picture of sustainable development while at the same time underestimating the potential for climate change concerns to be a catalyst for progress toward sustainable development. Second, these imbalances in perceptions are more likely to be addressed effectively at a local scale than at a global or national scale. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *AAG, 2003, GLOB CHANG LOC PLAC *HADL CTR, 2000, REG CLIM SIM *IPCC, 1994, TECHN GUID ASS CLIM MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 *NACC, 2000, CLIM CHANG IMP US PO *NAS, 1999, OUR COMM JOURN TRANS *ORNL CUSAT, 2003, POSS VULN COCH IND C *UNDP, IN PRESS AD POL FRAM CAPISTRANO D, 2003, CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK, P107 CLARK WC, 2000, 20012 HARV U KENN SC DOWNING TE, 2000, CLIMATE CHANGE VULNE JODHA NS, 1989, GREEN HOUSE WARMING JODHA NS, 1992, REGIONS GLOBAL WARMI KATES RW, 2001, SCIENCE, V292, P641 MANABE S, 1994, J CLIMATE, V7, P5 PARSON EA, 2003, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V57, P9 WILBANKS TJ, 1994, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V84, P541 WILBANKS TJ, 1999, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V43, P601 WILBANKS TJ, 2003, ENVIRONMENT, V45, P28 WILBANKS TJ, 2003, SCALING ISSUES INTEG, P5 NR 20 TC 0 J9 CLIM POLICY BP S147 EP S154 PY 2003 VL 3 GA 761BN UT ISI:000187879500011 ER PT J AU Pretty, JN Ball, AS Li, XY Ravindranath, NH TI The role of sustainable agriculture and renewable-resource management in reducing greenhouse-gas emissions and increasing sinks in China and India SO PHILOSOPHICAL TRANSACTIONS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY OF LONDON SERIES A-MATHEMATICAL PHYSICAL AND ENGINEERING SCIENCES LA English DT Article C1 Univ Essex, Ctr Environm & Soc, Colchester CO4 3SQ, Essex, England. Univ Essex, Dept Biol Sci, Colchester CO4 3SQ, Essex, England. China Agr Univ, Coll Rural Dev, Beijing 100094, Peoples R China. Indian Inst Sci, Ctr Ecol Sci, Bangalore 560012, Karnataka, India. RP Pretty, JN, Univ Essex, Ctr Environm & Soc, Wivenhoe Pk, Colchester CO4 3SQ, Essex, England. AB This paper contains an analysis of the technical options in agriculture for reducing greenhouse-gas emissions and increasing sinks, arising from three distinct mechanisms: (i) increasing carbon sinks in soil organic matter and above-ground biomass; (ii) avoiding carbon emissions from farms by reducing direct and indirect energy use; and (iii) increasing renewable-energy production from biomass that either substitutes for consumption of fossil fuels or replaces inefficient burning of fuelwood or crop residues, and so avoids carbon emissions, together with use of biogas digesters and improved cookstoves. We then review best-practice sustainable agriculture and renewable-resource-management projects and initiatives in China and India, and analyse the annual net sinks being created by these projects, and the potential market value of the carbon sequestered. We conclude with a summary of the policy and institutional conditions and reforms required for adoption of best sustainability practice in the agricultural sector to achieve the desired reductions in emissions and increases in sinks. A review of 40 sustainable agriculture and renewable-resource-management projects in China and India under the three mechanisms estimated a carbon mitigation potential of 64.8 MtC yr(-1) from 5.5 Mha. The potential income for carbon mitigation is $324 million at $5 per tonne of carbon. The potential exists to increase this by orders of magnitude, and so contribute significantly to greenhouse-gas abatement. Most agricultural mitigation options also provide several ancillary benefits. However, there are many technical, financial, policy, legal and institutional barriers to overcome. 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Lowestoft Lab, Ctr Environm Fisheries & Aquaculture Sci, Lowestoft NR33 0HT, Suffolk, England. Univ E Anglia, Ctr Ecol Evolut & Conservat, Sch Biol Sci, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. Dalhousie Univ, Dept Biol, Halifax, NS B3H 4J1, Canada. RP Reynolds, JD, Simon Fraser Univ, Dept Biol Sci, Burnaby, BC V5A 1S5, Canada. AB We review interactions between extrinsic threats to marine fishes and intrinsic aspects of their biology that determine how populations and species respond to those threats. Information is available on the status of less than 5% of the world's approximately 15 500 marine fish species, most of which are of commercial importance. By 2001, based on data from 98 North Atlantic and northeast Pacific populations, marine fishes had declined by a median 65% in breeding biomass from known historic levels; 28 populations had declined by more than 80%. Most of these declines would be sufficient to warrant a status of threatened with extinction under international threat criteria. However, this interpretation is highly controversial, in part because of a perception that marine fishes have a suite of life history characteristics, including high fecundity and large geographical ranges, which might confer greater resilience than that shown by terrestrial vertebrates. We review 15 comparative analyses that have tested for these and other life history correlates of vulnerability in marine fishes. The empirical evidence suggests that large body size and late maturity are the best predictors of vulnerability to fishing, regardless of whether differences among taxa in fishing mortality are controlled; there is no evidence that high fecundity confers increased resilience. The evidence reviewed here is of direct relevance to the diverse criteria used at global and national levels by various bodies to assess threat status of fishes. Simple life history traits can be incorporated directly into quantitative assessment criteria, or used to modify the conclusions of quantitative assessments, or used as preliminary screening criteria for assessment of the similar to 95% of marine fish species whose status has yet to be evaluated either by conservationists or fisheries scientists. 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Univ Calif San Diego, Sci Studies Program, La Jolla, CA 92093 USA. RP Oreskes, N, Univ Calif San Diego, Dept Hist, La Jolla, CA 92093 USA. CR *AM GEOPH UN, 2003, EOS, V84, P574 *AM MET SOC, 2003, B AM METEOROL SOC, V84, P508 *NAT AC SCI COMM S, 2001, CLIM CHANG SCI AN SO MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 REVKIN AC, 2003, NY TIMES 0619, A1 VANDENHOVE S, 2003, CLIM POLICY, V2, P3 NR 6 TC 1 J9 SCIENCE BP 1686 EP 1686 PY 2004 PD DEC 3 VL 306 IS 5702 GA 878FA UT ISI:000225630800026 ER PT J AU Guill, S TI Vulnerability and adaptation of African ecosystems to global climate change - Foreword SO CLIMATE RESEARCH LA English DT Editorial Material RP Guill, S, CSMT,US COUNTRY STUDIES PROGRAM,PO 63,1000 INDEPENDENCE AVE SW,WASHINGTON,DC 20585. NR 0 TC 0 J9 CLIMATE RES BP U4 EP U4 PY 1996 PD FEB 19 VL 6 IS 2 GA UD549 UT ISI:A1996UD54900001 ER PT J AU Chester, DK TI Theology and disaster studies: The need for dialogue SO JOURNAL OF VOLCANOLOGY AND GEOTHERMAL RESEARCH LA English DT Review C1 Univ Liverpool, Dept Geog, Liverpool L69 3BX, Merseyside, England. RP Chester, DK, Univ Liverpool, Dept Geog, POB 147, Liverpool L69 3BX, Merseyside, England. AB In hazard analysis the conventional wisdom holds that disasters are features of either human vulnerability and/or demoralised nature. The notion of the 'Act of God' has been almost completely replaced. Using examples of volcanic eruptions and Christian theology, it is argued that many actual and potential victims of hazards continue to explain losses in theistic terms; even in societies where individuals are aware of alternative scientific and social explanations. In Christianity attempts to reconcile God's love, justice and omnipotence on the one hand and human suffering on the other, is termed theodicy, and it is proposed that recent developments allow more fruitful dialogue to take place between hazard analysts and theologians than has been the case hitherto. During the International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction (1990-2000) a consensus emerged that, if responses to disaster are to be successfully managed, then an awareness of local culture is vitally important. This consensus has continued, as research agendas are currently being formulated for the International Strategy for Disaster Reduction. In many disaster prone regions, religion is an essential element of culture and must be carefully considered in the planning process, and not simply dismissed as a symptom of ignorance, superstition and backwardness. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V All rights reserved. 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The dissemination of hurricane mitigation information among Florida's homeowners SO HISPANIC JOURNAL OF BEHAVIORAL SCIENCES LA English DT Article C1 Univ Miami, Dept Sociol, Miami, FL 33152 USA. RP Peguero, AA, Univ Miami, Dept Sociol, Miami, FL 33152 USA. AB When a natural or manmade disaster strikes, there is Usually little time for citizens to prepare and protect themselves. In September 2003, the U.S. Department of Homeland Defense implemented a National Response Plan dealing with many forms of disaster. However, when a disaster hits, not all citizens are equally prepared or protected. A sample of 165 Latino and 1,069 Non-Latino Florida single-family homeowners is drawn from the 1999 Florida Statewide Mitigation Survey (SMS) to investigate the problems associated with the dissemination of hurricane mitigation information among Florida's Latino homeowners. Results from logistic regression analyses reveal that Latino homeowners prefer to utilize friends and family as sources of disaster preparation information. The significance of research findings and policy implications are discussed. 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SO ANNUAL REVIEW OF ANTHROPOLOGY LA English DT Review C1 Univ Sussex, Inst Dev Studies, Environm Grp, Brighton BN1 9RE, E Sussex, England. RP Scoones, I, Univ Sussex, Inst Dev Studies, Environm Grp, Brighton BN1 9RE, E Sussex, England. AB This review asks the question: What new avenues of social science enquiry are suggested by new ecological thinking, with its focus on nonequilibrium dynamics, spatial and temporal variation, complexity, and uncertainty? Following a review of the emergence of the "new ecology" and the highlighting of contrasts with earlier "balance of nature" perspectives, work emerging from ecological anthropology, political ecology, environmental and ecological economics, and debates about nature and culture are examined. With some important exceptions, much social science work and associated popular and policy debates remain firmly wedded to a static and equilibrial view. This review turns to three areas where a more dynamic perspective has emerged. Each has the potential to take central elements of new ecological thinking seriously, sometimes with major practical consequences for planning, intervention design, and management. First is the concern with spatial and temporal dynamics developed in detailed and situated analyses of "people in places," using, in particular, historical analysis as a way of explaining environmental change across time and space. Second is the growing understanding of environment as both the product of and the setting for human interactions, which link dynamic structural analyses of environmental processes with an appreciation of human agency in environmental transformation, as part of a "structuration" approach. Third is the appreciation of complexity and uncertainty in social-ecological systems and, with this, the recognition of that prediction, management, and control are unlikely, if not impossible. 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STODDART DR, 1965, GEOGRAPHY, V50, P242 STONE G, 1996, SETTLEMENT ECOLOGY S SULLIVAN S, 1996, J BIOGEOGR, V23, P1 SZERSZYNSKI B, 1996, RISK ENV MODERNITY N, P104 TAYLOR PJ, 1992, GEOFORUM, V23, P405 TIFFEN M, 1994, MORE PEOPLE LESS ERO TURNER MG, 1989, ANNU REV ECOL SYST, V20, P171 VAYDA AP, 1975, ANNU REV ANTHROPOL, V4, P293 VAYDA AP, 1983, HUM ECOL, V11, P265 WALKER BH, 1993, AMBIO, V22, P80 WALTERS CJ, 1976, ADAPTIVE MANAGEMENT WARREN A, 1995, T I BRIT GEOGR, V20, P193 WARREN D, 1995, CULTURAL DIMENSION D WATTS MJ, 1983, INTERPRETATIONS CALA, P231 WESTOBY M, 1989, J RANGE MANAGE, V42, P266 WHITE R, 1990, J AM HIST, V76, P1114 WIENS JA, 1976, ANNU REV ECOL SYST, V7, P81 WILLIAMS M, 1994, J HIST GEOGR, V20, P3 WILLIAMS R, 1980, PROBLEMS MAT CULTURE WILSON JA, 1990, OCEAN SHORELINE MANA, V13, P179 WILSON K, 1995, ENVIRON HIST, V1, P281 WOLF E, 1972, ANTHR Q, V45, P201 WOODGATE G, 1998, ENVIRON VALUE, V7, P3 WORSTER D, 1977, NATURES EC HIST ECOL WORSTER D, 1979, DUSTBOWL SO PLAINS 1 WORSTER D, 1984, PACIF HIST REV, V53, P16 WORSTER D, 1985, RIVERS EMPIRE WATER WORSTER D, 1993, GLOBAL ECOLOGY NEW A, P132 WORSTER D, 1993, WEALTH NATURE ENV HI WRIGHT S, 1994, ANTHR ORG WYNNE B, 1994, SOCIAL THEORY GLOBAL, P169 WYNNE B, 1996, RISK ENV MODERNITY N, P44 YEARLEY S, 1994, SOCIAL THEORY GLOBAL, P150 ZIMMERER K, 1994, ANN AM ASS GEOGR, V841, P108 ZIMMERER K, 1996, CHANGING FORTUNES BI ZIMMERER K, 1996, CONCEPTS HUMAN GEOGR, P161 NR 265 TC 28 J9 ANNU REV ANTHROPOL BP 479 EP 507 PY 1999 VL 28 GA 270VA UT ISI:000084556800020 ER PT J AU El Raey, M Dewidar, KH El Hattab, M TI Adaptation to the impacts of sea level rise in Egypt SO CLIMATE RESEARCH LA English DT Article C1 Univ Alexandria, Inst Grad Studies & Res, Alexandria, Egypt. RP El Raey, M, Univ Alexandria, Inst Grad Studies & Res, Alexandria, Egypt. AB Assessment of the vulnerability of and expected socioeconomic losses over the Nile Delta coast due to the impact of sea level rise (SLR) was carried out in detail. Impacts of SLR on the Governorates of Alexandria and Port Said, in particular, were evaluated quantitatively. Options and costs of adaptation were analyzed and presented. Multi-criteria and decision matrix approaches based on questionnaire surveys were carried out to identify priorities in the 2 case studies. Results indicate that there are very limited possibilities of changing jobs for vulnerable stakeholders; cost is the main barrier of implementation; the majority of stakeholders recommend protection actions; and beach nourishment with limited hard structures (groins and breakwaters) is the best immediate option for adaptation, while the ICZM approach is the best available strategic option. CR *DELFT HYDR, 1991, IMPL REL SLR DEV LOW *IDSC, 1995, INF DESCR EG *TETR, 1986, SHOR PROT MAST PLAN CARTER TR, 1994, IPCC TECHNICAL GUIDE ELRAEY M, 1995, J COASTAL RES, V14, P190 ELRAEY M, 1997, ENVIRON MONIT ASSESS, V47, P59 ELRAEY M, 1998, ENVIRON MONIT ASSESS, V56, P113 ELRAEY M, 1999, IN PRESS INT J REMOT FANOS AM, 1995, J COASTAL RES, V11, P516 FRIHY OE, 1996, OCEAN COAST MANAGE, V30, P281 IBRAHIM MA, 1997, AQUACULTURE RELATION SESTINI G, 1989, 214 WG UNEP OCA SMITH AE, 1994, R2611A DEC FOC INC SMITH JB, 1997, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V7, P251 STANLEY DJ, 1993, SCIENCE, V260, P628 NR 15 TC 0 J9 CLIMATE RES BP 117 EP 128 PY 1999 PD AUG 27 VL 12 IS 2-3 GA V3096 UT ISI:000171723000009 ER PT J AU ROWLANDS, IH TI EXPLAINING NATIONAL CLIMATE-CHANGE POLICIES SO GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS LA English DT Article RP ROWLANDS, IH, UNIV LONDON LONDON SCH ECON & POLIT SCI,HOUGHTON ST,LONDON WC2A 2AE,ENGLAND. AB In this article, the 'interest based explanation' for international environmental policy is used to investigate the climate change issue. By assessing vulnerability and abatement costs for 24 OECD countries, their respective policy positions are predicted. These are then compared with those policies that actually exist in the international debate to date. Of the 24 countries' policy positions, 11 are accurately predicted, while 13 fail. The article concludes with some comments about the limitations and potential of the interest based explanation. CR 1990, STRATEGIC ADAPTATION 1991, COST EFFECTIVENESS A 1992, EC EFFECTS USING CAR 1992, EC EFFECTS USING CAR 1992, WORLD RESOURCES 1992 1992, WORLD RESOURCES I 19 1993, AIR POLLUTION STUDIE, V9, P22 1993, ENERGY POLICIES IEA, P519 1993, SEA LEVEL RISE GLOBA 1994, CLIMATE CHANGE POLIC, V1, P103 1995, 11TH SESS INT NEG CO 1995, EARTH NEGOTIATIONS B, V12, P7 ALLISON GT, 1971, ESSENCE DECISION EXP AMIN S, 1982, DYNAMICS GLOBAL CRIS BARRETT S, 1992, EUROPEAN EC BARRETT S, 1992, EUROPEAN EC, P12 BARRETT S, 1992, NEGOTIATING FRAMEWOR, P35 BARRETT, REACHING CO2 EMISSIO CARRARO C, 1993, J PUBLIC ECON, V52, P309 CLINE WR, 1992, EC GLOBAL WARMING EYCKMANS J, 1993, KYKLOS, V46, P363 FANKHAUSER S, 1994, UNPUB PROTECTION VS FANKHAUSER S, 1995, ENVIRON PLANN A, V27, P299 FANKHAUSER S, 1995, VALUING CLIMATE CHAN FISCHER G, 1994, GLOBAL ENV CHANGE, V4, P22 FISCHER G, 1994, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V4, P7 GRIECO JM, 1990, COOPERATION NATIONS HAAS PM, 1990, SAVING MEDITERRANEAN HARDIN G, 1968, SCIENCE, V162, P1243 HARDIN R, 1982, COLLECTIVE ACTION MAXWELL JH, 1993, INT ENV AFFAIRS, V5, P30 MILNER H, 1992, WORLD POLIT, V44, P493 NORDHAUS WD, 1991, ECON J, V101, P920 NORDHAUS, EC GLOBAL WARMING ODELL J, 1982, US INT MONETARY POLI OLIVEIRAMARTINS J, 1992, OECD118 EC DEP WORK OLIVEIRAMARTINS J, 1992, OECD118 EC DEP WORK OLIVEIRAMARTINS, COSTS REDUCING CO2 E OLSON M, 1965, LOGIC COLLECTIVE ACT OSTROM E, 1990, GOVERNING COMMONS PEARCE DW, 1994, SOCIAL COSTS CLIMATE RAYNER S, 1993, GLOBAL ENV CHANGE, V3, P25 REILLY JM, 1994, GLOBAL ENV CHANGE, V4, P30 REILLY JM, 1994, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V4, P24 ROTMANS J, 1994, GLOBAL ENV CHANGE, V4, P116 ROTMANS J, 1994, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V4, P97 ROWLANDS IH, 1995, POLITICS GLOBAL ATMO, CH7 SPRINZ D, 1994, INT ORGAN, V48, P77 TEGART WJM, 1993, CLIMATE CHANGE 1992 TITUS JG, 1992, GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANG TOL RSJ, 1994, DAMAGE COSTS CLIMATE VOGEL D, 1986, NATIONAL STYLES REGU, P21 YOUNG OR, 1993, POLAR POLITICS CREAT NR 53 TC 1 J9 GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANGE BP 235 EP 249 PY 1995 PD JUN VL 5 IS 3 GA RX122 UT ISI:A1995RX12200007 ER PT J AU Jones, RN TI An environmental risk assessment/management framework for climate change impact assessments SO NATURAL HAZARDS LA English DT Article C1 CSIRO, Div Atmospher Res, Aspendale, Vic 3195, Australia. RP Jones, RN, CSIRO, Div Atmospher Res, Aspendale, Vic 3195, Australia. AB This paper presents an environmental risk assessment/risk management framework to assess the impacts of climate change on individual exposure units identified as potentially vulnerable to climate change. This framework is designed specifically to manage the systematic uncertainties that accompany the propagation of climate change scenarios through a sequence of biophysical and socio-economic climate impacts. Risk analysis methods consistent with the IPCC Technical Guidelines for Assessing Climate Change Impacts and Adaptations are set within a larger framework that involves stakeholders in the identification, assessment and implementation of adaptation measures. Extensive consultation between parties occurs in a flexible structure that embeds scientific methods of risk analysis within a broad setting of social decision-making. This format is consistent with recent forms of environmental risk assessment/management frameworks. The risk analysis links key climatic variables expressed as projected ranges of climate change with an upper and lower limit, with impact thresholds identified collaboratively by researchers and stakeholders. The conditional probabilities of exceeding these thresholds are then assessed (probabilities using this method are conditional as the full range of uncertainty for the various drivers of climate change, and their probability distributions, remains unknown). An example based on exceeding irrigation demand limited by an annual farm cap is used to show how conditional probabilities for the exceedance of a critical threshold can be used to assess the need for adaptation. The time between the identification of an acceptable level of risk and its exceedance is identified as a window of adaptation. The treatment of risk consists of two complementary actions, adaptation to anticipated changes in climate and the mitigation of climate change through reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. Both of these actions will reduce the risk of critical thresholds being exceeded. The potential of this framework for addressing specific requirements of the United Nations Framework Convention for Climate Change is discussed. CR *CSIRO, 1996, CLIM CHANG SCEN AUST *IPCC, 1993, IPCC PROC PREP REV A *MDBMC, 1999, SAL AUD MURR BAS *QUEENSL TRANSP, 1999, EFF CLIM CHANG TRANS *STAND ASS AUSTR, 1999, 43601999 AS NZS STAN *USPCC RARM, 1997, FRAM ENV HLTH RISK M, V1 BASS B, 1997, ENVIRON MONIT ASSESS, V46, P151 BASS B, 1997, J ENVIRON MANAGE, V49, P107 BEER T, 1996, RISK UNCERTAINTY ENV, P3 BEER T, 1997, WORLD RES REV, V9, P113 BUDDEMEIER RW, 1998, LOICZ NEWSLETTER, P1 CARTER TR, 1994, IPCC TECHNICAL GUIDE CARTER TR, 1999, GUIDELINES USE SCENA CARTER TR, 1999, REPRESENTING UNCERTA CHAPMAN AD, 1998, IMPACT GLOBAL WARMIN DAVIS WP, 1994, B MAR SCI, V54, P1045 DEXTER EM, 1995, IMPACT GLOBAL WARMIN DOWLATABADI H, 1999, INTEGRATED CLIMATE A GATTUSO JP, 1999, AM ZOOL, V39, P160 HALL WB, 1998, RANGELAND J, V20, P177 HENNESSY KJ, 1995, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V30, P327 HOEGHGULDBERG O, 1999, CLIMATE CHANGE CORAL HOUGHTON JT, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, P9 HULME M, 1998, CLIMATE RES, V10, P1 HULME M, 1999, REPRESENTING UNCERTA HUPPERT A, 1998, AM NAT, V152, P447 JETTEN TH, 1997, AM J TROP MED HYG, V57, P285 JOHNSON B, 1998, CLIMATE CHANGE SCENA, P61 JONES RN, 1997, FRONTIERS ECOLOGY BU, P311 JONES RN, 1999, RESOURCE FUTURES PRO, V9908, P40 JONES RN, 2000, ANAL EFFECTS KYOTO 2 JONES RN, 2000, CLIMATE RES, V14, P89 JONES RN, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P403 KEINAST F, 1996, FOREST ECOL MANAG, V80, P133 KEINAST F, 1998, BIOL CONSERV, V83, P291 KEINAST F, 1999, FOREST ECOL MANAG, V120, P35 KENNY GJ, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V46, P91 LANE ME, 1999, J WATER RES PL-ASCE, V125, P194 LAVEE H, 1998, LAND DEGRAD DEV, V9, P407 LUO Y, 1995, J BIOGEOGR, V22, P673 MARTENS WJM, 1995, ENVIRON HEALTH PERSP, V103, P458 MCMICHAEL AJ, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, P561 MIMIKOU MA, 1997, HYDROLOG SCI J, V42, P661 MORGAN MG, 1990, UNCERTAINTY GUIDE DE MORGAN MG, 1996, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V34, P337 NAKICENOVIC N, 2000, EMISSIONS SCENARIOS NEW M, 2000, INTEGR ASSESS, V1, P203 NUNN PD, 1997, J COASTAL RES, V24, P133 PALMER W, 1965, 45 US WEATH BUR PANAGOULIA D, 1997, J HYDROL, V191, P208 PARRY ML, 1996, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V6, P1 PATT A, 1999, RISK DECISION POLICY, V4, P1 PATZ JA, 1996, CLIMATE RES, V6, P113 PATZ JA, 1998, ENVIRON HEALTH PERSP, V106, P147 PETSCHELHELD G, 1997, COST BENEFIT ANAL CL, P121 PILGRIM DH, 1987, AUSTR RAINFALL RUNOF, V1 PITTOCK AB, 1993, MODELLING CHANGE ENV, P481 PITTOCK AB, 2000, IN PRESS ENV MONIT A POWER M, 1998, ENVIRON SCI TECHNOL, V32, A224 READING CJ, 1998, OECOLOGIA, V117, P469 RUSSELL C, 1993, 93R13 IWR US ARM COR SCHIMMELPFENNIG D, 1998, GLOBAL ENV CHANGE AG, P193 SCHREIDER SY, 1996, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V34, P513 SHLYAKHTER A, 1995, CHEMOSPHERE, V30, P1585 SPANO D, 1999, INT J BIOMETEOROL, V42, P124 SWART RJ, 1994, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V26, P343 SYME GJ, 1994, EVALUATION REV, V18, P523 TITUS JG, 1996, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V33, P151 TUCKER GE, 1997, WATER RESOUR RES, V33, P2031 VISSER H, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P421 WALSH KJ, 1999, CLIMATE CHANGE QUEEN WALSH KJE, 1998, GLOBAL WARMING SEA L WATSON RT, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, V1, P1 WATSON RT, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, P1 WATSON RT, 1998, REGIONAL IMPACTS CLI, V1, P1 WHITE DH, 1997, IN PRESS P 9 WORLD W WIGLEY TML, 1990, J GEOPHYS RES-ATMOSP, V95, P851 WOODBURY PB, 1998, FOREST ECOL MANAG, V107, P99 YOHE GW, 1998, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V38, P447 NR 79 TC 7 J9 NATURAL HAZARDS BP 197 EP 230 PY 2001 PD MAR VL 23 IS 2-3 GA 417UX UT ISI:000167853500007 ER PT J AU Jenkins, B TI NGOs in Bangladesh: Are they in a strong position to assist vulnerable people living on low-lying lands to cope with floods? SO SOUTH ASIA-JOURNAL OF SOUTH ASIAN STUDIES LA English DT Article C1 Univ New England, Armidale, NSW 2351, Australia. RP Jenkins, B, Univ New England, Armidale, NSW 2351, Australia. CR *AG KHAN FDN CAN N, 1993, GOING SCAL BRAC EXP *BRAC, 1983, NET POW STRUCT 10 VI *WORLD BANK, 1990, 119 WORLD BANK ABED FH, 1997, REASONS HOPE INSTRUC, P41 AHMED I, 1999, LIVING FLOODS EXERCI, P27 AHMED QF, 1997, DISCOURSE, V1, P60 BLAIKIE PM, 1994, RISK NATURAL HAZARDS, V1, P1 BOYCE J, 1990, ENVIRON MANAGE, V14, P421 BRAMMER H, 1989, DISASTERS, V13, P95 BUCKLAND J, 2000, J HUMANITARIAN ASSIS, P2 BURKEY S, 1993, PEOPLE 1 GUIDE SELF, P109 CHAMBERS R, 1993, CHALLENGING PROFESSI, P95 CHOURCI N, 1995, GLOBAL ACCORD ENV CH, P96 COLCHESTER M, 1984, SURVIVAL INT REV, V43, P29 COLCHESTER M, 1994, DEV ENV SUSTAINING P, P76 DAVIDSON I, 1992, NO TIME WASTE POVERT EDWARDS M, 1999, WORLD DEV, V27, P366 EDWARDS M, 2002, EARTHSCAN READER NGO, P1 EDWARDS M, 2002, EARTHSCAN READER NGO, P187 EKINS P, 1992, NEW WORLD ORDER GRAS, P116 FOWLER A, 2002, EARTHSCAN READER NGO, P14 HAQ S, 2001, ADVOCACY SOCIAL JUST HOLDGATE M, 1996, CARE ACTION MAKING S, P16 HOSSAIN M, 1982, CONSCIENTIZING RURAL JACKSON B, 1994, POVERTY PLANET QUEST, P14 JAYASINGHA H, 1996, POVERTY PARTNERSHIP KORTEN D, 1984, PEOPLE CENTERED DEV, P127 LEWIS DJ, 1997, ANN AM ACAD POLIT SS, P1 LOVELL C, 1992, BREAKING CYCLE POVER, P15 MATIN N, 2001, DISASTERS, V25, P229 MAWDSLEY E, 2002, WORLD VIEW PUBLISHIN, V14, P165 MONAN J, 1989, BANGLADESH STRENGTH, P27 NORGARD RB, 1994, DEV BETRAYED END PRO, P14 PALMER TN, 2002, NATURE, V415, P512 SAGASTI FR, 1995, GLOBAL ACCORD ENV CH, P180 SATTAUR O, 1991, NEW SCIENTIST, V29, P23 SCOONES I, 1998, 72 I DEV STUD SHAW R, 1992, BUSH BASE FOREST FAR, P211 SMILLIE I, 2001, MANAGING CHANGE LEAD, P9 TANDON R, 2002, EARTHSCAN READER NGO, P222 TUCKER RP, 1988, WORLD DEFORESTATION, P91 ULLAH MS, 1988, OPEN HOUSE INT, V13, P44 WATSON RT, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE SYNTH NR 43 TC 0 J9 S ASIA BP 455 EP 466 PY 2003 PD DEC VL 26 IS 3 GA 064IA UT ISI:000239081200014 ER PT J AU Walker, S TI Role of education and training in agricultural meteorology to reduce vulnerability to climate variability SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 Univ Orange Free State, Dept Soil Crop & Climate Sci, ZA-9300 Bloemfontein, South Africa. RP Walker, S, Univ Orange Free State, Dept Soil Crop & Climate Sci, POB 339, ZA-9300 Bloemfontein, South Africa. AB Agricultural meteorologists are concerned with many operational aspects of the effects of climate on crop production, livestock, and natural resource management. For them to continue to make a contribution to the economy of a country they must continually sharpen their skills and remain updated on the latest available information. Training should include a variety of skills, including transferable skills (e.g. communication, numeracy), professional skills (including cognitive skills) and information technology skills. Problem-based learning can be used to promote critical thinking, decision making and analytical skills. More use should be made of computer-aided learning for agricultural meteorologists' in-service training. In particular, the Internet or CDs could be used to disseminate specific recently developed techniques and applications to improve the understanding of the variability in climate and its effect on agricultural production and natural resource management. Examples that can address the vulnerability of farmers include crop-climate matching, the use of indices, crop modelling and risk assessment together with seasonal outlooks. A strategy needs to be formulated to address these needs and implement changes in the education and training of agricultural meteorologists. These training needs must be constantly updated to meet the changing demands of new technology to cope with climate change and climate variability. CR *FAO, 1990, GUIDELINES CONDUCT T, P259 ANDERSON JR, 1992, RISK ANAL DRYLAND FA, P109 BIGGS J, 1999, TEACHING QUALITY LEA, P250 BOUD D, 1999, CHALLENGE PROBLEM BA, P344 DOORENBOS J, 1979, YIELD RESPONSE WATER, P193 DOORENBOS J, 1992, GUIDELINES PREDICTIN, P156 FLOOR K, 2001, P C COMP AID LEARN D GIBBS C, DEV STUDENTS, P51 HAMMER GL, 1996, P 2 AUSTR C AGR BRIS LOMAS J, 2000, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V103, P197 MASON SJ, 1996, WATER SA, V22, P203 MCMASTER GS, 1997, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V87, P291 MUCHOW RC, 1991, CLIMATIC RISK CROP P, P235 ROSENBERG NJ, 1983, MICROCLIMATE BIOL EN, P495 SINGH RP, 1991, NEEM NEWSL, V8, P3 SPANGLER T, 2001, P C COMP AID LEARN D SYS C, CROP REQUIREMENTS, V3 SYS C, METHODS LAND EVALUAT, V2 SYS C, 1991, PRINCIPLES LAND EVAL, V2 WALKER S, 2001, ASSESSMENT COMMUNICA, P163 WALKER S, 2002, P BRAM FISCH S OXF B NR 21 TC 1 J9 CLIMATIC CHANGE BP 311 EP 318 PY 2005 PD MAY VL 70 IS 1-2 GA 942EG UT ISI:000230265100016 ER PT J AU Fine, B TI Entitlement failure? SO DEVELOPMENT AND CHANGE LA English DT Article RP Fine, B, UNIV LONDON,THORNHAUGH ST,RUSSELL SQ,LONDON WC1H 0XG,ENGLAND. AB In this article, the literature around the entitlement approach to famine is assessed against the background of recent developments in economics which are perceived to have increasingly encroached upon the previously neglected subject matter of the other social sciences. In this light, emphasis is given to the tension that exists in the entitlement approach between its micro-foundations and macro-consequences and causes. This, in turn, is related to the broader problem in social theory of the relations between structures and agency. Whilst it is found that the entitlement approach does embody an implicit causal content in the filtering of socioeconomic mechanisms through the distribution of individual entitlements, it is ultimately argued that the approach is primarily suited to investigative rather than causal analysis. 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Univ Nebraska, Natl Drought Mitigat Ctr, Lincoln, NE 68583 USA. RP Wilhelmi, OV, Natl Ctr Atmospher Res, Adv Study Program, POB 3000, Boulder, CO 80307 USA. AB Recent drought events in the United States and the magnitude of drought losses indicate the continuing vulnerability of the country to drought. Until recently, drought management in many states, including Nebraska, has been largely response oriented with little or no attention to mitigation and preparedness. In 1998, Nebraska began to revise its drought plan in order to place more emphasis on mitigation. One of the main aspects of drought mitigation and planning is the assessment of who and what is vulnerable and why. This paper presents a method for spatial, Geographic Information Systems-based assessment of agricultural drought vulnerability in Nebraska. It was hypothesized that the key biophysical and social factors that define agricultural drought vulnerability were climate, soils, land use, and access to irrigation. The framework for derivation of an agricultural drought vulnerability map was created through development of a numerical weighting scheme to evaluate the drought potential of the classes within each factor. The results indicate that the most vulnerable areas to agricultural drought were non-irrigated cropland and rangeland on sandy soils, located in areas with a very high probability of seasonal crop moisture deficiency. The identification of drought vulnerability is an essential step in addressing the issue of drought vulnerability in the state and can lead to mitigation-oriented drought management. 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CSIR, ZA-7599 Stellenbosch, South Africa. Univ Pretoria, Ctr Environm Studies, ZA-0002 Pretoria, South Africa. RP Bohensky, EL, Univ Stellenbosch, Dept Bot & Zool, Biocomplex Res Grp, Ctr Invas Biol, Private Bag X1, ZA-7602 Stellenbosch, South Africa. AB Scenario planning is a promising tool for dealing with uncertainty, but it has been underutilized in ecology and conservation. The use of scenarios to explore ecological dynamics of alternative futures has been given a major boost by the recently completed Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, a 4-year initiative to investigate relationships between ecosystem services and human well-being at multiple scales. Scenarios, as descriptive narratives of pathways to the future, are a mechanism for improving the understanding and management of ecological and social processes by scientists and decision makers with greater flexibility than conventional techniques could afford. We used scenarios in one of the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment's subglobal components to explore four possible futures in a Southern African river basin. Because of its ability to capture spatial and temporal dynamics, the scenario exercise revealed key trade-offs in ecosystem services in space and time and the importance of a multiple-scale scenario design. At subglobal scales, scenarios are a powerful vehicle for communication and engagement of decision makers, especially when designed to identify responses to specific problems. Scenario planning has the potential to be a critical ingredient in conservation as calls are increasingly made for the field to help define and achieve sustainable visions for the future. 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Univ Cadiz, Fac Ciencias Mar, Cadiz, Spain. Univ Buenos Aires, CONICET, Fac Arquitectura Diseno & Urbanismo, Buenos Aires, DF, Argentina. Univ Buenos Aires, GEPAMA, Fac Arquitectura Diseno & Urbanismo, Buenos Aires, DF, Argentina. RP Dadon, JR, Univ Buenos Aires, Fac Ciencias Exactas & Nat, Dept Ecol Genet & Evoluc, GEPAMA, RA-1428 Buenos Aires, DF, Argentina. AB The continental coastal zone of Argentina can be differentiated by environmental, biological, socioeconomic, and historical characteristics in four distinct regions. The Great Fluvial region, 3725 km long, shows richness of natural resources and has a developing economy based on forestry and agriculture, The La Plata River (Rio de la Plata) region, with a 392 km waterfront, is the most densely populated, urbanized, industrialized area in the country, and it also exhibits high levels of environmental degradation. The Pampean (Pampeana) and the Patagonian (Patagonica) regions have a 4725 km litoral They hold important fishery stocks, the largest of which (the hake) is currently overexploited. Tourism demand has caused urban landscape to progress in the Pampa coast during the last three decades. In Patagonia, most of the natural resources are well preserved but the territorial and economic integration is still delayed. Despite the environmental and socioeconomic differences among the four regions, there is, however, a common set of problems which, to a greater or lesser extent, affect them all: (a) privatization of the public domain; (b) inadequate urban planning of the coastal zone; (c) industrial and urban pollution; (d) coastal erosion linked to inadequate coastal management practices; (e) overexploitation of natural resources; (f) loss and fragmentation of natural habitats leading to the loss of biodiversity; (g) increased coastal vulnerability. According to this diagnosis, coordinated specific, long-term actions should be promoted. Even when Argentina has a wide range of environmental legislation, it lacks a single tool or instrument specifically designed for coastal management. Most of the regulations and administrative requirements applied to the current coastal zone management are general normatives, and thus diffuse or hardly suitable for specific situations. We propose to attain consensus about a minimal preliminary basis in order to develop a national integrated management coastal program. Some of the issues are: design of specific governmental policies; creation of a specific institutional organization; long-term funding for the program; promotion of interinstitutional coordination and public participation in the decision-making process; development of specific research, education, training and information generation; and promotion of international cooperation aimed at sharing experiences in coastal zone management. CR *AKAL, 2001, EST MUND 2002 AN EC *CEPAL, 2000, BAL PREL EC AM LAT C *FUND CIUD, 2000, FOR CIUD RIO DOC BAS *FUND PAT NAT, 1996, UNPUB PLAN MAN ZON C *I REC MUND, 1996, POBL MED AMB *IGM, 1998, ATL GEOGR REP ARG *OAS, 1969, CUENC RIO PLAT EST P *PNUMA, 2000, GEO AM LAT CAR PERSP ALVAREZ JA, 1984, CONCEPTOS BASICOS MA ALVIAL A, 1999, OCEAN COAST MANAGE, V42, P143 ARDUINO G, 1990, INTERCIENCIA, V15, P373 BALMACEDA RR, 1988, ARGENTINA GEOGRAFIA BARRAGAN JM, 2001, J COASTAL RES, V17, P885 BERTONCELLO R, 1993, TERRITORIO, P1 BONETTO AA, 1998, HUMEDALES ARGENTINA, P31 BRAILOVSKY A, 1991, MEMORIA VERDE HIST E BRAILOVSKY A, 1995, TODO HIST, V332, P82 BRANDANI A, 1987, COASTAL MANAGEMENT, V15, P43 BRANDANI A, 1990, MANEJO AMBIENTES REC, V1, P37 CAFIERO A, 1999, DIARIO ASUNTOS ENTRD CARLEVARI I, 1993, ARGENTINA 1993 ESTRU CARNEVARI P, 1999, WETLANDS INT PUBL, V46 CARVALHO V, 1994, ZONA COSTEIRA BRASIL CASTELLI L, 1995, CONVENCION MAR PROTE CICINSAIN B, 1998, INTEGRATED COASTAL O CIOCCO NF, 1998, MAR ARGENTINO RECURS CLARK JR, 1996, COASTAL ZONE MANAGEM CODIGNOTTO JO, 1997, MAR ARGENTINO RECURS, V1, P89 DADON JR, 1999, BIODIVERSIDAD USO TI, P529 DADON JR, 2001, SUSTENTABILIDAD BIOD, P703 DADON JR, 2002, ZONA COSTERA PAMPA A, P101 DARRIGRAN G, 1997, CIENCIA HOY, V7, P17 DARRIGRAN G, 1998, HYDROBIOLOGIA, V367, P223 DEPESCA S, 1997, CONSUMO PESCADO MERC DESISTO MCZ, 1987, INTRO ESTUDIO RECURS DESISTO MCZ, 1994, DECADAS LEGISLACION FRANZA JA, 2002, ZONA COSTERA PAMPA A GOMEZ ES, 1998, HUMEDALES ARGENTINA, P97 GUARGA R, 1991, CORRIENTES SEDIMENTO GUERRERO RA, 1997, CONT SHELF RES, V17, P727 ISLA FI, 1992, UNPUB AMBIENTE COSTE ISLA FI, 1995, 6 C LAT CIENC MAR MA, P111 KAY R, 1999, COASTAL PLANNING MAN KELLEHER G, 1995, GLOBAL REPRESENTATIV, V2 LACIAR M, 1987, INTRO ESTUDIO RECURS LEGECKIS R, 1982, DEEP-SEA RES, V29, P375 LEPEYRE EG, 1999, OCEAN COAST MANAGE, V42, P155 LOPEZ RA, 1995, 6 C LAT CIENC MAR MA, P122 MARCOMINI SC, 1997, REV ASOCIACION ARGEN, V4, P79 MARTINEZ CM, 1999, OCEAN COAST MANAGE, V42, P165 MATTEUCCI SD, 1999, BIODIVERSIDAD USO TI, P549 MONTANER CA, 2001, RAICES TORCIDAS AM L MORAES ACR, 1999, CONTNIBUCOES GESTAO MORELLO J, 1998, SISTEMAS AMBIENTALES, P409 MORELLO J, 2000, REALIDAD EC, V169, P70 MUNOZ JMB, 1996, REV ESTUDIOS REGIONA, V45, P111 MUNOZ JMB, 1997, MEDIO AMBIENTE DESAR MUNOZ JMB, 2001, COASTAL MANAGEMENT, V29, P17 PARKER G, 1997, MAR ARGENTINO SUS RE, V1, P65 PIRIZ ML, 2001, SUSTENTABILIDAD BIOD, P679 ROCCATAGLIATA J, 1997, GEOGRAFIA ARGENTINA SANTOS EG, 2000, 8 JORN DEF BUEN AIR, P10 SCHNACK EJ, 1985, WORLDS COASTLINE, P69 WARNER FM, 1996, CONV NAC UN DER MAR YANEZARANCIBIA A, 1999, OCEAN COAST MANAGE, V42, P77 YORIO PM, 1998, HUMEDALES ARGENTINA, P137 NR 66 TC 0 J9 COAST MANAGE BP 55 EP 77 PY 2003 PD JAN-MAR VL 31 IS 1 GA 638BP UT ISI:000180549800004 ER PT J AU Claggett, PR Jantz, CA Goetz, SJ Bisland, C TI Assessing development pressure in the Chesapeake Bay watershed: An evaluation of two land-use change models SO ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING AND ASSESSMENT LA English DT Article C1 US Geol Survey, Annapolis, MD 21403 USA. Univ Maryland, Dept Geog, College Pk, MD 20742 USA. Woods Hole Res Ctr, Woods Hole, MA 02543 USA. US EPA, Annapolis, MD 21403 USA. RP Claggett, PR, US Geol Survey, 410 Severn Ave,Suite 109, Annapolis, MD 21403 USA. AB Natural resource lands in the Chesapeake Bay watershed are increasingly susceptible to conversion into developed land uses, particularly as the demand for residential development grows. We assessed development pressure in the Baltmore-Washington, DC region, one of the major urban and suburban centers in the watershed. We explored the utility of two modeling approaches for forecasting future development trends and patterns by comparing results from a cellular automata model, SLEUTH (slope, land use, excluded land, urban extent, transportation), and a supply/demand/allocation model, the Western Futures Model. SLEUTH can be classified as a land-cover change model and produces projections on the basis of historic trends of changes in the extent and patterns of developed land and future land protection scenarios. The Western Futures Model derives forecasts from historic trends in housing units, a U.S. Census variable, and exogenously supplied future population projections. Each approach has strengths and weaknesses, and combining the two has advantages and limitations. CR *CHES EX COUNC, 2003, CHES 2000 *URB I, 2002, CENS CD NEIGHB CHANG *US CENS BUR, 2003, CENS TRACTS CART BOU *US EPA, 2000, EPA600R00098 OFF RES *US EPA, 2001, EPA600R00098 OFF RES *US EPA, 2001, EPA903F01003 *USGS, 2003, PROJ GIG URB LAND CO BOCKSTAEL NE, 1996, AM J AGR ECON, V78, P1168 BOESCH DF, 2003, CHESAPEAKE FUTURES C CANDAU J, 2002, THESIS U CALIFORNIA CLARKE KC, 1997, ENV PLANN B, V24, P47 CLARKE KC, 1998, INT J GEOGR INF SCI, V12, P699 EWING R, 2002, MEASURING SPRAWL ITS HARDIE I, 2000, LAND ECON, V76, P659 HEROLD M, 2003, REMOTE SENS ENVIRON, V86, P286 JACKSON LE, 2004, ENVIRON MONIT ASSESS, V94, P231 JANTZ CA, IN PRESS ENV PLANN B JENKS GF, 1963, INT YB CARTOGRAPHY, V3, P119 JONES KB, 1997, EPA600R97130 OFF RES LUCY WH, 2001, BROOKINGS I SURVEY S MCCAULEY S, 2003, INT J REMOTE SENS, V24, P1 OKICKI M, 2002, COMMUNICATION 1203 SILVA E, 2002, COMPUTES ENV URBAN S, V26, P525 SMITH AJ, IN PRESS REMOTE SENS THEOBALD D, IN PRESS CONSERV BIO THEOBALD D, 2003, COMMUNICATION 0630 THEOBALD D, 2003, TECHNICAL DESCRIPTIO THEOBALD DM, 2001, GEOGR REV, V91, P544 VARLYGUIN D, 2001, AM SOC PHOT REM SENS YANG XJ, 2003, INT J GEOGR INF SCI, V17, P463 NR 30 TC 1 J9 ENVIRON MONIT ASSESS BP 129 EP 146 PY 2004 PD JUN VL 94 IS 1-3 GA 775UE UT ISI:000189078400010 ER PT J AU Nicholls, RJ Lowe, JA TI Benefits of mitigation of climate change for coastal areas SO GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS LA English DT Article C1 Univ Southampton, Sch Civil Engn & Environm, Southampton SO17 1BJ, Hants, England. Univ Reading, Dept Meteorol, Hadley Ctr, Reading Unit, Reading RG6 6BB, Berks, England. RP Nicholls, RJ, Univ Southampton, Sch Civil Engn & Environm, Univ Rd,Highfield, Southampton SO17 1BJ, Hants, England. AB This paper considers the possible benefits of mitigation of climate change for coastal areas with a strong emphasis on sea-level rise as this is one of the most certain consequences of human-induced global warming. There is a long-term 'commitment to sea-level rise' due to the long thermal lags of the ocean system and hence the response of sea-level rise to mitigation is slower than for other climate factors. Therefore, while climate stabilisation reduces coastal impacts during the 21st century, compared to unmitigated emissions, the largest benefits may occur in the 22nd century (and beyond). The results of the analysis suggest that a mixture of adaptation and mitigation policies need to be considered for coastal areas, as this will provide a more robust response to human-induced climate change than either policy in isolation. This requires the joint evaluation of mitigation and adaptation in coastal areas, ideally using a probabilistic risk-based methodology, which would be a departure from existing analyses. Because of the long time constants involved such assessments need to continue beyond 2100 to provide the full implications of the different policy choices. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *EN MOD FOR, 1995, 14 EMF *IGBPLOICZ, 2002, INT GEOSPH BIOSPH PR *IPCC CZMS, 1992, GLOB CLIM CHANG RIS *WASA GROUP, 1998, B AM METEOROL SOC, V79, P741 ARNELL NW, 2002, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V53, P413 ARNELL NW, 2004, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V14, P3 BOS E, 1994, WORLD POPULATION PRO CABANES C, 2001, SCIENCE, V294, P840 CARNELL RE, 1998, CLIM DYNAM, V14, P369 CARTER TR, 1999, P ECLAT 2 HEL WORKSH CHURCH JA, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, P639 DARWIN RF, 2001, ENVIRON RESOUR ECON, V19, P113 DOUGLAS BC, 1992, J GEOPHYS RES-OCEANS, V97, P12699 DOUGLAS BC, 2001, SEA LEVEL RISE HIST, P37 EMERY KO, 1991, SEA LEVELS LAND LEVE ENTING IG, 1994, 31 CSIRO FANKHAUSER S, 1995, VALUING CLIMAGE CHAN GORNITZ V, 2001, SEA LEVEL RISE HIST, P97 GREGORY JM, 1993, J CLIMATE, V6, P2247 GREGORY JM, 2000, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V27, P3069 GREGORY JM, 2001, CLIM DYNAM, V18, P225 GREGORY JM, 2002, J CLIMATE, V15, P3117 GUNTHER H, 1998, GLOBAL ATMOS OCEAN S, V6, P121 HENDERSONSELLERS A, 1998, B AM METEOROL SOC, V79, P19 HOLLIGAN P, 1993, SCI PLANT INT GEOSPH HOOZEMANS FMJ, 1993, GLOBAL VULNERABILITY HUYBRECHTS P, 1999, J CLIMATE 1, V12, P2169 JOHNS TC, 2003, CLIMATE DYNAMCIS, P583 KAAS E, 2000, CLIMATE SCENARIOS WA, P49 KNUTSON TR, 1998, SCIENCE, V279, P1018 KRISHNAMURTI TN, 1998, TELLUS A, V50, P186 LOWE JA, UNPUB MECH SEA LEVEL LOWE JA, UNPUB PREP2 SEA LEVE LOWE JA, 2001, CLIM DYNAM, V18, P179 MCLEAN RF, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, P343 MERCER JH, 1978, NATURE, V271, P321 MITCHELL JFB, 2000, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V27, P2997 MURPHY JM, UNPUB NATURE NAKICENOVIC N, 2000, WORK GROUP 3 INT PAN NICHOLLS RJ, 1995, GEOJOURNAL, V37, P369 NICHOLLS RJ, 1995, P WORLD COAST 1993 M, P181 NICHOLLS RJ, 1998, CLIMATE RES, V11, P5 NICHOLLS RJ, 2002, ISS ENVIR SCI TECHN, V17, P83 NICHOLLS RJ, 2002, PHYS CHEM EARTH, V27, P1455 NICHOLLS RJ, 2004, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V14, P69 NICOLLS RJ, 1999, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V9, S69 NURSE L, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, P843 OPPENHEIMER M, 1998, NATURE, V393, P325 PARRY ML, 1999, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHA S, V9, S1 PARRY ML, 2001, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V11, P1 PERNETTA JC, 1992, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V2, P19 PETOUKHOV V, 2000, CLIM DYNAM, V16, P1 RAPER SCB, 2002, J CLIMATE, V15, P124 SACHS JD, 2001, SCI AM, V284, P70 SCHIMEL D, 1997, IPCC TECHN PAPER 3 SCHNEIDER SH, 1980, ANNU REV ENERG ENV, V5, P107 SINCLAIR MR, 1999, J CLIMATE, V12, P3467 SMALL C, 2003, J COASTAL RES, V19, P584 SUTHERLAND J, 2002, SR590 SUTHERLAND J, 2003, P I CIVIL ENG-WATER, V156, P137 SWART RJ, 2002, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V12, P155 TITUS JG, 1996, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V33, P151 TONIAZZO T, 2004, J CLIMATE, V17, P21 TURNER I, 1996, APPL MATH MODEL, V20, P2 VAUGHAN DG, 2002, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V52, P65 VILES H, 1995, COASTAL PROBLEMS WARRICK RA, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, P359 WATSON RT, 2001, CLIMAGE CHANGE 2001 WIGLEY TML, 1993, CLIMATE SEA LEVEL CH, P111 WIGLEY TML, 1996, NATURE, V379, P242 WOODWORTH PL, 1999, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V26, P1589 ZHANG KQ, 2000, J CLIMATE, V13, P1748 NR 72 TC 0 J9 GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANGE BP 229 EP 244 PY 2004 PD OCT VL 14 IS 3 GA 854EQ UT ISI:000223884300005 ER PT J AU Harris, JA Hobbs, RJ Higgs, E Aronson, J TI Ecological restoration and global climate change SO RESTORATION ECOLOGY LA English DT Editorial Material C1 Cranfield Univ, Bedford MK45 4DT, England. Murdoch Univ, Sch Environm Sci, Murdoch, WA 6150, Australia. Univ Victoria, Sch Environm Studies, Victoria, BC V8W 2Y2, Canada. CNRS, UMR 5175, Restorat Ecol Grp, CEFE, F-34293 Montpellier, France. RP Harris, JA, Cranfield Univ, Bedford MK45 4DT, England. AB There is an increasing consensus that global climate change occurs and that potential changes in climate are likely to have important regional consequences for biota and ecosystems. Ecological restoration, including (re)afforestation and rehabilitation of degraded land, is included in the array of potential human responses to climate change. However, the implications of climate change for the broader practice of ecological restoration must be considered. In particular, the usefulness of historical eco-system conditions as targets and references must be set against the likelihood that restoring these historic ecosystems is unlikely to be easy, or even possible, in the changed biophysical conditions of the future. We suggest that more consideration and debate needs to be directed at the implications of climate change for restoration practice. CR *ACIA, 2004, IMP WARM ARCT ARCT C *DEP ENV FOOD RUR, 2003, SIT SPEC SCI INT ENC *FOOD RUR AFF EFT, 2005, EC SOC EC VAL EC SER *MILL EC ASS, 2003, EC HUM WELL BEING FR *MILL EC ASS, 2005, LIV OUR MEANS NAT AS *SERI, 2006, SER INT PRIM EC REST *UKCIP, 2005, FUT CLIM SCEN ARONSON J, 1995, RESTOR ECOL, V3, P1 ARONSON J, 2006, ECOLOGICAL RESTORATI, V22, P22 BAKKENES M, 2002, GLOBAL CHANGE BIOL, V8, P390 BELLAMY PH, 2005, NATURE, V437, P245 BERRY PM, 2002, GLOBAL ECOL BIOGEOGR, V11, P453 BOND WJ, 2000, GLOB CHANGE BIOL, V6, P865 BOND WJ, 2003, GLOBAL CHANGE BIOL, V9, P973 BRIGHT C, 1998, LIFE BOUNDS CLEWELL AF, 2000, RESTOR ECOL, V8, P1 CLEWELL AF, 2006, IN PRESS CONSERVATIO COSTANZA R, 1997, NATURE, V387, P253 DAVIS MB, 1986, COMMUNITY ECOLOGY, P269 DAVIS MB, 1994, TRENDS ECOL EVOL, V9, P357 DEGROOT RS, 2002, ECOL ECON, V41, P393 DELCOURT HR, 1991, QUATERNARY ECOLOGY P EGAN D, 2001, HIST ECOLOGY HDB RES FALK D, 2006, FDN RESTORATION ECOL GRIME JP, 1979, PLANT STRATEGIES VEG HAMILTON NRS, 2001, J APPL ECOL, V38, P1374 HAMPE A, 2004, GLOBAL ECOL BIOGEOGR, V13, P469 HANNAH L, 2002, CONSERV BIOL, V16, P264 HANNAH L, 2002, GLOBAL ECOL BIOGEOGR, V11, P485 HAVENS K, 1998, RESTORATION MANAGEME, V16, P68 HIGGS ES, 2003, NATURE DESIGN PEOPLE HOBBS RJ, 1991, NATURE CONSERVATION, V2, P281 HOBBS RJ, 1994, ECOSCIENCE, V1, P346 HOBBS RJ, 2001, RESTOR ECOL, V9, P239 HOBBS RJ, 2006, GLOBAL ECOL BIOGEOGR, V15, P1 HULME PE, 2005, J APPL ECOL, V42, P784 IVERSON LR, 1998, ECOL MONOGR, V68, P465 IVERSON LR, 2004, GLOBAL ECOL BIOGEOGR, V13, P209 JONES TA, 2003, RESTOR ECOL, V11, P281 KING D, 2005, J APPL ECOL, V42, P779 KRAUSS SL, 2004, J APPL ECOL, V41, P1162 LAVENDEL B, 2003, ECOLOGICAL RESTORATI, V21, P199 LESICA P, 1999, RESTOR ECOL, V7, P42 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 MILTON SJ, 2003, FRONT ECOL ENVIRON, V1, P247 MILTON SJ, 2003, S AFR J SCI, V99, P404 MOONEY HA, 2000, INVASIVE SPECIES CHA MUNASINGHE M, 2005, PRIMER CLIMATE CHANG OPDAM P, 2004, BIOL CONSERV, V117, P285 PARMESAN C, 2003, NATURE, V421, P37 PEARSON RG, 2003, GLOBAL ECOL BIOGEOGR, V12, P361 PEARSON RG, 2004, GLOBAL ECOL BIOGEOGR, V13, P471 RICE KJ, 2003, FRONT ECOL ENVIRON, V1, P469 ROOT TL, 2003, NATURE, V421, P57 SAXON E, 2005, ECOL LETT, V8, P53 SKOV F, 2004, ECOGRAPHY, V27, P366 SPENCER JW, 1992, BIOL CONSERV, V62, P77 SWETNAM TW, 1999, ECOL APPL, V9, P1189 TRAVIS JMJ, 2003, P ROY SOC LOND B BIO, V270, P467 VANANDEL J, 2006, RESTORATION ECOLOGY WATSON RT, 2000, LAND USE LAND USE CH WATSON RT, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 WHITE PS, 1997, RESTOR ECOL, V5, P338 WILKINSON DM, 2001, J APPL ECOL, V38, P1371 NR 64 TC 1 J9 RESTOR ECOL BP 170 EP 176 PY 2006 PD JUN VL 14 IS 2 GA 048KY UT ISI:000237947200001 ER PT J AU Marsico, A Giuliano, G Pennetta, L Vurro, M TI Intrinsic vulnerability assessment of the south-eastern Murge (Apulia, southern Italy) SO NATURAL HAZARDS AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES LA English DT Article C1 Univ Bari, Dipartimento Geol & Geofis, Bari, Italy. IRSA, CNR, Bari, Italy. RP Marsico, A, Univ Bari, Dipartimento Geol & Geofis, Bari, Italy. AB Maps of areas with different vulnerability degrees are an integral part of environmental protection and management policies. It is difficult to assess the intrinsic vulnerability of karst areas since the stage and type of karst structure development and its related underground discharge behaviour are not easy to determine. Therefore, some improvements, which take into account dolines, eaves and superficial lineament arrangement, have been integrated into the SIN-TACS R5 method and applied to a karst area of the southeastern Murge (Apulia, southern Italy). The proposed approach integrates the SINTACS model giving more weight to morphological and structural data; in particular the following parameters have been modified: depth to groundwater, effective infiltration action, unsaturated zone attenuation capacity and soil/overburden attenuation capacity. Effective hydro-geological and impacting situations are also arranged using superficial lineaments and karst density. In order to verify the reliability of the modified procedure, a comparison is made with the original SINTACS R5 index evaluated in the same area. The results of both SINTACS index maps are compared with karst and structural features identified in the area and with groundwater nitrate concentrations recorded in wells. The best fitting SINTACS map is then overlaid by the layout of potential pollution centres providing a complete map of the pollution risk in the area. CR *ASS AGR FOR REG P, 1999, PROG ACLA CAR AGR EC *EUR COMM, 1995, 16547EN EUR COMM, P349 *JOINT RES CTR, 1995, CORINE LAND COV ALLER L, 1987, 600287035 US EPA RS BOENZI F, 1991, ITINERARI SPELEOLO 2, V4, P17 BRUNO G, 1992, 2 CONV SPEL PUGL, P91 BRUNO G, 1995, GEOMORPHOLOGY, V12, P313 CIARANFI N, 1988, MEM SOC GEOL ITAL, V41, P449 CIMINO A, 1999, ETUDES GEOGRAPHIE S, V28, P67 CIVITA M, 1994, CART VULNERABILITA A CIVITA M, 2000, VALUTAZIONE CARTOGRA, P226 CUCCHI F, 2000, GROTTE ITALIA, V1, P21 CUCCHI F, 2003, P 1 INT WORKSH AQ VU, P28 DIGERONIMO I, 1970, GEOL ROM, V9, P47 DOERFLINGER N, 1998, GROUNDWATER VULNERAB DOMES P, 1992, ITINERARI SPELEOLOGI, V2, P55 FANIZZI A, 1999, GROTTA S ANTONIO MON, P53 FOSTER SSD, 1987, TNO COMM HYDR RES HA, V38, P69 GIULIANI P, 2000, ITINERARI SPELEOLOGI, V9, P5 GRASSI D, 1982, GEOL APPL IDROEGEOL, V17, P55 IANNONE A, 1979, GEOGR FIS DINAM QUAT, V21, P33 LONGO CA, 2001, SCI TECHNIQUES ENV U, V13, P233 MALIK P, 1999, 29 C INT ASS HYDR BR, P79 MARSICO A, 2003, THESIS U BARI PARISE M, 1999, ITINERARI SPELEOLOGI, V8, P53 PETELETGIRAUD E, 2001, 7 C LIM HYDR FISS ME, V13, P281 PIERI P, 1980, B SPELEOLOGICO MARTI, V2, P13 RICCHETTI G, 1994, C NAZ GEOL AR AV 23 SAURO U, 1991, ITINERARI SPELEOLOGI, V5, P67 SAVINO G, 1993, PUGLIAGROTTE, P21 SGOBBA D, 1995, PUBLIAGROTTE, P59 URICCHIO VF, 1999, ACQUE SOTTERRANEE, V63, P63 NR 32 TC 0 J9 NAT HAZARDS EARTH SYST SCI BP 769 EP 774 PY 2004 VL 4 IS 5-6 GA 882YM UT ISI:000225976300018 ER PT J AU Brandolini, P Faccini, F Piccazzo, M TI Geomorphological hazard and tourist vulnerability along Portofino Park trails (Italy) SO NATURAL HAZARDS AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES LA English DT Article C1 Univ Genoa, DISAM Dept, I-16126 Genoa, Italy. Univ Genoa, DIPTERIS Dept, I-16126 Genoa, Italy. RP Brandolini, P, Univ Genoa, DISAM Dept, I-16126 Genoa, Italy. AB The many trails existing in the coastal area of Portofino Promontory are used by tourists for trekking or as pathways to small villages and beaches. The aim of this paper is to define geomorphological hazard and tourist vulnerability in this area, within the framework of the management and planning of hiking activities in Portofino Natural Park. In particular, processes triggered by gravity, running waters and wave motion, affecting the slopes and the cliff, are considered. The typology of the trails and trail maintenance are also taken into account in relation to weather conditions that can make the excursion routes dangerous for tourists. In conclusion, an operative model is applied for the definition of possible risk scenarios. This model is founded on an inventory and the quantification of geomorphological hazards and tourist vulnerability, in comparison with trail rescue data. The model can be applied to other environments and tourist areas. CR BELL FG, 1999, GEOLOGICAL HAZARDS T BRANDOLINI P, 2004, 32 INT GEOL C FLOR 2 BRANDOLINI P, 2005, 14 M ASS EUR GEOL SO CEVASCO A, 2004, GEAM, V111, P31 CORSI B, 2001, OPHIOLITES, P26 DECHANO LM, 2001, DISASTER PREVENTION, V10, P261 DESTEFANIS A, 1984, GEOMORFOLOGIA AREE C DOWLING R, 2005, GEOTOURISM FACCINI F, 2004, P 2 CONV NAZ GEOL TU FACCINI F, 2005, 18 C ASS INT CLIM AI GLADE T, 2005, LANDSLIDE HAZARD RIS GRECU F, 2003, WORKSH GEOM SENS SYS, P87 PANIZZA M, 1987, INTERN GEOMORPH, V1 SCHUMM SA, 1994, GEOMORPHOLOGY, V10, P129 SOLANA MC, 2003, GEOMORPHOLOGY, V54, P39 SWARBROOKE J, 2003, ADVENTURE TOURISM NE TERRANOVA R, 1999, SQUILIBRI GEOMORFOLO VARNES DJ, 1984, NATURAL HAZARDS, V3 NR 18 TC 0 J9 NAT HAZARDS EARTH SYST SCI BP 563 EP 571 PY 2006 VL 6 IS 4 GA 075PR UT ISI:000239898200007 ER PT J AU Schneider, UA McCarl, BA TI Appraising agricultural greenhouse gas mitigation potentials: effects of alternative assumptions SO AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS LA English DT Article C1 Int Inst Appl Syst Anal, Forestry Project, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria. Texas A&M Univ, Dept Agr Econ, College Stn, TX 77843 USA. RP Schneider, UA, Univ Hamburg, Res Unit Sustainabil & Global Change, Ctr Marine & Climate Res, Bundesstr 55, D-20146 Hamburg, Germany. AB There is interest in society in general and in the agricultural and forestry sectors concerning a land-based role in greenhouse gas mitigation reduction. Numerous studies have estimated the potential supply schedules at which agriculture and forestry could produce greenhouse gas offsets. However, such studies vary widely in critical assumptions regarding economic market adjustments, allowed scope of mitigation alternatives, and region of focus. Here, we examine the effects of using different assumptions on the total emission mitigation supply curve from agriculture and forestry in the United States. To do this we employ the U.S.-based Agricultural Sector and Mitigation of Greenhouse Gas Model and find that variations in such factors can have profound effects on the results. Differences between commonly employed methods shift economic mitigation potentials from -55 to + 85%. The bias is stronger at higher carbon prices due to afforestation and energy crop plantations that reduce supply of traditional commodities. Lower carbon prices promote management changes with smaller impacts on commodity supply. 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Univ E Anglia, Sch Environm Sci, Climat Res Unit, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. Natl Ctr Atmospher Res, Environm & Societal Impacts Grp, Boulder, CO 80307 USA. Minist Mines Environm & Tourism, Climate Change Off, Harare, Zimbabwe. Univ Oxford, Sch Geog, Oxford OX1 3TB, England. RP Hulme, M, Univ E Anglia, Sch Environm Sci, Tyndall Ctr Climate Change Res, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. AB This paper reviews observed (1900-2000) and possible future (2000-2100) continent-wide changes in temperature and rainfall for Africa. For the historic period we draw upon a new observed global climate data set which allows us to explore aspects of regional climate change related to diurnal temperature range and rainfall variability. The latter includes an investigation of regions where seasonal rainfall is sensitive to El Nino climate variability. This review of past climate change provides the context for our scenarios of future greenhouse gas-induced climate change in Africa. These scenarios draw upon the draft emissions scenarios prepared for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Third Assessment Report, a suite of recent global climate model experiments, and a simple climate model to link these 2 sets of analyses. We present a range of 4 climate futures for Africa, focusing on changes in both continental and regional seasonal-mean temperature and rainfall. Estimates of associated changes in global CO2 concentration and global-mean sea-level change are also supplied. These scenarios draw upon some of the most recent climate modelling work. We also identify some fundamental limitations to knowledge with regard to future African climate. These include the often poor representation of El Nino climate variability in global climate models, and the absence in these models of any representation of regional changes in land cover and dust and biomass aerosol loadings. These omitted processes may well have important consequences for future African climates, especially at regional scales. We conclude by discussing the value of the sort of climate change scenarios presented here and how best they should be used in national and regional vulnerability and adaptation assessments. 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Univ E Anglia, Sch Environm Sci, CSERGE, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. RP Adger, WN, Univ E Anglia, Sch Environm Sci, Tyndall Ctr Climate Change Res, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. AB Future changes in climate pose significant challenges for society, not the least of which is how best to adapt to observed and potential future impacts of these changes to which the world is already committed. Adaptation is a dynamic social process: the ability of societies to adapt is determined, in part, by the ability to act collectively. This article reviews emerging perspectives on collective action and social capital and argues that insights from these areas inform the nature of adaptive capacity and normative prescriptions of policies of adaptation. Specifically, social capital is increasingly understood within economics to have public and private elements, both of which are based on trust, reputation, and reciprocal action. The public-good aspects of particular forms of social capital are pertinent elements of adaptive capacity in interacting with natural capital and in relation to the performance of institutions that cope with the risks of changes in climate. Case studies are presented of present-day collective action for coping with extremes in weather in coastal areas in Southeast Asia and of community-based coastal management in the Caribbean. These cases demonstrate the importance of social capital framing both the public and private institutions of resource management that build resilience in the face of the risks of changes in climate. These cases illustrate, by analogy, the nature of adaptation processes and collective action in adapting to future changes in climate. 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AB Limitations of present assessments of climate change impacts on food supplies are addressed, and a new approach is proposed. This uses the concept of vulnerability to hunger as a point of departure. A typology of vulnerability indices is developed and several measures of vulnerability are explored using information from case studies reported in the literature and research coordinated by the author's research group. An initial synthesis of data about climate change and vulnerability to hunger is illustrated for Africa. NR 0 TC 15 J9 GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANGE BP 365 EP 380 PY 1991 PD DEC VL 1 IS 5 GA GY933 UT ISI:A1991GY93300003 ER PT J AU Hoyle, M James, M TI Global warming, human population pressure, and viability of the world's smallest butterfly SO CONSERVATION BIOLOGY LA English DT Article C1 Univ Nottingham, Sch Biol, Nottingham NG7 2RD, England. RP Hoyle, M, Univ Exeter, Sch Biol & Chem Sci, Hatherly Labs, Exeter EX4 4PS, Devon, England. AB The effects of climate change and habitat destruction and their interaction are likely to be the greatest challenge to animal and plant conservation in the twenty first century. We used the world's smallest butterfly, the Sinai baton blue (Pseudophilotes sinaicus), as an exemplar of how global warming and human population pressures may act together to cause species extinctions. We mapped the entire global range of this butterfly and obtained extensive data on the intensity of livestock grazing. As with an increasing number of species, it is confined to a network of small habitat patches and is threatened both by indirect human-induced factors (global warming) and by the direct activities of humans (in this case, livestock grazing and collection of medicinal plants). In the absence of global warming, grazing, and plant collection, our model suggested that the butterfly will persist for at least 200 years. Above a threshold intensity of global warming, the chance of extinction accelerated rapidly, implying that there may be an annual average temperature, specific to each endangered species, above which extinction becomes very much more likely. By contrast, there was no such threshold of grazing pressure-the chance of extinction increased steadily with increasing grazing. The impact of grazing, however, decreased with higher levels of year-to-year variation in habitat quality. The effect of global warming did not depend on the future level of grazing, suggesting that the impacts of global warming and grazing are additive. If the areas of habitat patches individually fall below certain prescribed levels, the butterfly is likely to go extinct. Two patches were very important for persistence: if either were lost the species would probably go extinct. Our results have implications for the conservation management of all species whose habitats are at risk because of the direct activities of humans and in the longer term because of climate change. 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Japan Sci & Technol Agcy, Kawaguchi, Saitama 3320012, Japan. Japan Agcy Marine Earth Sci & Technol, Frontier Res Ctr Global Change, Kanazawa Ku, Yokohama, Kanagawa 2360001, Japan. Res Inst Humanity & Nat, Kita Ku, Kyoto 6038047, Japan. RP Oki, T, Univ Tokyo, Inst Ind Sci, Meguro Ku, Komaba 461, Tokyo 1538505, Japan. AB Water is a naturally circulating resource that is constantly recharged. Therefore, even though the stocks of water in natural and artificial reservoirs are helpful to increase the available water resources for human society, the flow of water should be the main focus in water resources assessments. The climate system puts an upper limit on the circulation rate of available renewable freshwater resources (RFWR). Although current global withdrawals are well below the upper limit, more than two billion people live in highly water-stressed areas because of the uneven distribution of RFWR in time and space. 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Univ Georgia, Dept Anthropol, Athens, GA 30602 USA. RP Magistro, J, Int Dev Enterprises, 10403 W Colfax Ave,Suite 500, Lakewood, CO 80215 USA. AB This paper highlights the relevance of anthropological research to climate science. It suggests that localized scales of analysis, that have been the hallmark of anthropology, can complement global modeling exercises that cannot fully capture the complexities of real life decisions. Community and culture are key dimensions that mediate the interaction between humans and climate, Anthropology has a long-standing tradition of studying vulnerability and adaptation to environmental stresses. Political economy and political ecology approaches contextualize climate risk, highlighting the need to integrate climate products with policy solutions. Microanalyses of risk management and decision-making strategies can bring science and policy closer to the needs of vulnerable groups. Tools and insights from cognitive anthropology also facilitate communication of climate information by ensuring consistency with local knowledge frameworks. CR AGRAWAL A, 1995, DEV CHANGE, V26, P413 BLAIKIE PM, 1994, RISK NATURAL HAZARDS, V1, P1 BROAD K, 2000, PRACT ANTHR, V22, P20 BROAD K, 2000, SCIENCE, V289, P1693 DOWNING TE, 1992, CLIMATE CHANGE VULNE DOWNING TE, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE WORLD, P206 DREZE J, 1989, HUNGER PUBLICATION GLANTZ MH, 1992, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V2, P183 GLANTZ MH, 1996, CURRENTS CHANGE NINO INGRAM KT, 2000, P INT FOR CLIM PRED, P265 KEMPTON W, 1995, ENV VALUES AM CULTUR LAHSEN M, 1999, PARANOIA REASON CASE, P111 MAHMOUD H, 2000, PRACT ANTHR, V22, P11 MORAN E, 1998, PEOPLES PIXELS REMOT NELSON DR, 2000, PRACTICING ANTHR, V22, P6 ORLOVE B, 1999, 99 U CAL I INT STUD ORLOVE B, 2001, LINES WATER NATURE C ORLOVE BS, 2000, NATURE, V403, P68 OTTERSTROM S, 2000, PRACT ANTHR, V22, P15 PFAFF A, 1999, NATURE, V397, P645 PROCTOR JD, 1998, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V8, P227 RAYNER S, 1998, HUMAN CHOICE CLIMATE RHOADES R, 1997, PATHWAYS SUSTAINABLE RIBOT JC, 1996, CLIMATE VARIABILITY, V1, P1 RONCOLI C, IN PRESS READING RAI RONCOLI C, 2000, PRACT ANTHR, V22, P24 SHAW RV, 1998, IHDP P, V1 SMITHERS J, 1997, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V7, P129 STERN PC, 1992, GLOBAL ENV CHANGE UN STERN PC, 1999, MAKING CLIMATE FOREC THOMPSON M, 1998, HUMAN CHOICE CLIMATE, V1, P265 NR 31 TC 1 J9 CLIMATE RES BP 91 EP 96 PY 2001 PD DEC 4 VL 19 IS 2 GA 521BZ UT ISI:000173820000001 ER PT J AU Olalla-Tarraga, MA TI A conceptual framework to assess sustainability in urban ecological systems SO INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT AND WORLD ECOLOGY LA English DT Article C1 Univ Alcala de Henares, Fac Ciencias, Dept Ecol, Alcala De Henares 28871, Madrid, Spain. RP Olalla-Tarraga, MA, Univ Alcala de Henares, Fac Ciencias, Dept Ecol, Campus Univ,Ctra Madrid Barcelona Km 33-600, Alcala De Henares 28871, Madrid, Spain. AB Contemporary approaches in urban ecology should take into account interactions and feedbacks between socio-ecological dimensions. Sustainability indicators are key tools to assess such integration, but initiatives are diverse and there is no agreed framework for the assessment of such interactions and feedbacks. Despite this formidable challenge, several attempts have been made to reach out beyond the traditional subject areas of environment, economy and society in frameworks for indicators of sustainable development. While efforts to develop such a methodology have been made from different scales and levels of analyses, as we descend to the local scale, initiatives are multiplied. There is a need to channel the diversity of these various initiatives and standardize some concepts and methods. In this paper I deal with the pros and cons of the most commonly applied conceptual frameworks, looking for a method able to optimize the main purposes of sustainable development indicators. Starting from this foundation, I build a new proposal combining different methods previously applied in some research fields. A single Hierarchical Framework, developed to assess sustainable forest management is represented graphically through a visual model presented in the Johannesburg Summit of 2002, the Dashboard of Sustainability. An appraisal of the local contribution to global sustainability is obtained by introducing the Ecological Footprint into the methodological procedure. 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Minist Land Infrastruct & Transport, River Bur, Chiyoda Ku, Tokyo 1008918, Japan. RP Connor, RF, CPWC, POB 3015, NL-2601 DA Delft, Netherlands. AB Over the past few decades, a growing number of studies have been conducted on the mechanisms responsible for climate change and the elaboration of future climate scenarios. More recently, studies have emerged examining the potential effects of climate change on human societies, including how variations in hydrological regimes impact water resources management. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's third assessment report, climate change will lead to an intensification of the hydrological cycle, resulting in greater variability in precipitation patterns and an increase in the intensity and frequency of severe storms and other extreme events. In other words, climate change will likely increase the risks of flooding in many areas. Structural and non-structural countermeasures are available to reduce flood vulnerability, but implementing new measures can be a lengthy process requiring political and financial support. In order to help guide such policy decisions, a method for assessing flood vulnerability due to climate change is proposed. In this preliminary study, multivariate analysis has been used to develop a Flood Vulnerability Index (FVI), which allows for a comparative analysis of flood vulnerability between different basins. Once fully developed, the FVI will also allow users to identify the main factors responsible for a basin's vulnerability, making it a valuable tool to assist in priority setting within decision-making processes. CR *CTR EC HYDR, 2003, CLIM CHANG WAT RUL W KAINUMA M, 2002, CLIMATE POLICY ASSES MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 SULLIVAN C, 2002, WORLD DEV, V30, P1195 SULLIVAN CA, 2003, SCOPING STUDY IDENTI NR 5 TC 0 J9 WATER SCI TECHNOL BP 61 EP 67 PY 2005 VL 51 IS 5 GA 931CW UT ISI:000229464400011 ER PT J AU Greenfield, SM TI Society's vulnerability to climate change SO BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY LA English DT Letter NR 0 TC 0 J9 BULL AMER METEOROL SOC BP 430 EP 431 PY 2003 PD APR VL 84 IS 4 GA 670QP UT ISI:000182420400001 ER PT J AU Korf, B TI War, livelihoods and vulnerability in Sri Lanka SO DEVELOPMENT AND CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 Humboldt Univ, Dept Agr Econ & Social Sci, D-10099 Berlin, Germany. RP Korf, B, Humboldt Univ, Dept Agr Econ & Social Sci, Luisenstr 56, D-10099 Berlin, Germany. AB As the number of de-stabilized regions of warfare or post-war conditions worldwide continues to grow, this article investigates how civilians survive in the context of a civil war. It analyses livelihood strategies of farmers in the war-torn areas of Sri Lanka, using an analytical framework based on a revised form of DFID's sustainable rural livelihoods approach, placing particular attention on the institutional reproduction of household capital assets in the war economy. The author delineates a three pillar model of household livelihood strategies focusing on how households (1) cope with the increased level of risk and uncertainty; (2) adjust their economic and social household assets for economic survival; and (3) use their social and political assets as livelihood strategies. Empirical evidence comes from four case study villages in the east of Sri Lanka. Although the four case Studies were very close together geographically, their livelihood outcomes differed considerably depending on the very specific local political geography. The role of social and political assets is essential: while social assets (extended family networks) were important to absorb migrants, political assets (alliances with power holders) were instrumental in enabling individuals, households or economic actors to stabilize or even expand their livelihood options and opportunities. The author concludes that civilians in conflict situations are not all victims (some may also be culprits in the political economy of warfare), and that war can be both a threat and an opportunity, often Lit the same time. 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RUSSIAN ACAD SCI,CTR ECOL & FOREST PROD,MOSCOW 117418,RUSSIA. STATE HYDROL INST,ST PETERSBURG 199053,RUSSIA. RP Krankina, ON, OREGON STATE UNIV,DEPT FOREST SCI,PEAVY HALL 154,CORVALLIS,OR 97330. AB The Russian Federation contains approximately 20% of the world's timber resources and more than half of all boreal forests. These forests play a prominent role in environmental protection and economic development at global, national, and local levels, as well as, provide commodities for indigenous people and habitat for a variety of plant and animal species. The response and feedbacks of Russian boreal forests to projected global climate change are expected to be profound. Large shifts in the distribution (up to 19% area reduction) and productivity of boreal forests are implied by scenarios of General Circulation Models (GCMs), Uncertainty regarding the potential distribution and productivity of future boreal forests complicates the development of adaptation strategies for forest establishment, management, harvesting and wood processing. Although a low potential exists for rapid natural adaptation of long lived, complex boreal forests, recent analyses suggest Russian forest management and utilization strategies should be field tested to assess their potential to assist boreal forests in adaptation to a changing global environment. Current understanding of the vulnerability of Russian forest resources to projected climate change is discussed and examples of possible adaptation measures for Russian forests are presented, including: (1) artificial forestation techniques that can be applied with the advent of failed natural regeneration and to facilitate forest migration northward; (2) silvicultural measures that can influence the species mix to maintain productivity under future climates; (3) identifying forests at risk and developing special management adaptation measures for them; (4) alternative processing and uses of wood and non-wood products from future forests; and (5) potential future infrastructure and transport systems that can be employed as boreal forests shift northward into melting permafrost zones. Current infrastructure and technology can be employed to help Russian boreal forests adapt to projected global environmental change, however many current forest management practices may have to be modified. Application of this technical knowledge can help policymakers identify priorities for climate change adaptation. 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Swedish Univ Agr Sci, S-75007 Uppsala, Sweden. RP Tengo, M, Stockholm Univ, S-10691 Stockholm, Sweden. AB We investigated and compared management practices for dealing with uncertainty in agroecosystem dynamics in two cases of smallholder farming in different parts of the world: northeast Tanzania and east-central Sweden. Qualitative research methods were applied to map farmers' practices related to agroecosystem management. The practices are clustered according to a framework of ecosystem services relevant for agricultural production and discussed using a theoretical model of ecosystem dynamics. Almost half of the identified practices were found to be similar in both cases, with similar approaches for adjusting to and dealing with local variability and disturbance. Practices that embraced the ecological roles of wild as well as domesticated flora and fauna and the use of qualitative biological indicators are identified as tools that built insurance capital for change and enhanced the capacity to respond to changing agroecosystem dynamics. Diversification in time and space, as well as more specific practices for mitigating pest outbreaks and temporary droughts, can limit the effects of disturbance. In both Sweden and Tanzania, we identified social mechanisms for the protection of species that served important functions in the agroecosystem. We also found examples of how old practices served as a source of adaptations for dealing with new conditions and that new knowledge was adjusted to local conditions. The study shows that comparing management practices across scales and in different cultural settings can reveal insights into the capacity of farmers to adjust, respond to, and shape ecosystem dynamics. We emphasize the importance of continuous learning for developing the sustainable management of complex agroecosystems and securing agricultural production for the future. 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Univ Port Elizabeth, Dept Bot, Terr Ecol Res Unit, ZA-6000 Port Elizabeth, South Africa. Univ Port Elizabeth, Dept Bot, So African Hotspots Program Conservat Int, ZA-6000 Port Elizabeth, South Africa. Agr Res Council, Inst Soil Climate & Water, Geoinformat Div, ZA-7613 Die Boord, South Africa. RP Rouget, M, Univ Cape Town, Dept Bot, Inst Plant Conservat, ZA-7701 Rondebosch, South Africa. AB The formulation of an effective strategic plan for biodiversity conservation in the Cape Floristic Region (CFR) requires an assessment of the current situation with regard to habitat transformation, and an explicit framework for predicting the likelihood of remaining habitat (i.e. that potentially available for conservation) being transformed. This paper presents the results of a detailed assessment of the current and future extent of three important factors that threaten biodiversity in the CFR: cultivation for intensive agriculture (including commercial forestry plantations), urbanisation, and stands of invasive (self-sown) alien trees and shrubs. The extent of habitat transformation was mapped at the scale of 1:250,000, using primarily satellite imagery. We compared models derived from a rule-based approach relying on expert knowledge and a regression-tree technique to identify other areas likely to be affected by these factors in future. Cultivation for agriculture has transformed 25.9% of the CFR and dense stands of woody alien plants and urban areas each cover 1.6%. Both models predict that at least 30% of the currently remaining natural vegetation could be transformed within 20 years. There was an overall accuracy of 73% between both models although significant differences were found for some habitat types. Spatial predictions of future agriculture threats derived from the rule-based approach were overestimated relative to the statistical approach, whereas future alien spread was underestimated. Threat assessment was used to derive conservation targets for subsequent stages of conservation planning for the CFR. The importance of integrating vulnerability knowledge into conservation planning is discussed. The choice of vulnerability analysis (future habitat degradation and/or impact on biological entities) and methods will depend on the complexity of the threatening processes and the availability of spatial data. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *ERDAS IM, 1997, ERDAS FIELD GUID ABBITT RJF, 2000, BIOL CONSERV, V96, P169 BEISSINGER SR, 1996, CONSERV BIOL, V10, P1343 CLARKE KC, 1997, ENVIRON PLANN B, V24, P247 COWLING RM, 1991, BIOL CONSERV, V58, P243 COWLING RM, 1992, ECOLOGY FYNBOS NUTR COWLING RM, 1994, BOT DIVERSITY SO AFR, P31 COWLING RM, 1999, FRAMEWORK CONSERVATI COWLING RM, 2001, S AFR J BOT, V67, P15 COWLING RM, 2003, BIOL CONSERV, V112, P191 CRIST PJ, 2000, LANDSCAPE ECOL, V15, P47 DEATH G, 2000, ECOLOGY, V81, P3178 DINERSTEIN E, 1993, CONSERV BIOL, V7, P53 DOBSON AP, 1997, SCIENCE, V275, P550 FAIRBANKS DHK, 1999, S AFRICAN STUDY CLIM FAIRBANKS DHK, 2000, S AFR J SCI, V96, P69 FIELDING AH, 1997, ENVIRON CONSERV, V24, P38 FLATHER CH, 1998, BIOSCIENCE, V48, P365 FRANKLIN J, 1998, J VEG SCI, V9, P733 FRANKLIN JF, 1993, ECOL APPL, V3, P202 GOLDBLATT P, 2000, CAPE PLANTS CONSPECT GUISAN A, 2000, ECOL MODEL, V135, P147 GUNTER JT, 2000, PHOTOGRAMM ENG REM S, V66, P1469 HAWKINS DM, 1995, FORMAL INFERENCE BAS HEIJNIS CE, 1999, BIODIVERS CONSERV, V8, P471 HIGGINS SI, 1999, CONSERV BIOL, V13, P303 HIGGINS SI, 2001, J APPL ECOL, V38, P571 KEMPER J, 1999, BIOL CONSERV, V90, P103 LANDIS JD, 1994, ENVIRON PLANN B, V21, P399 LEMAITRE DC, 1996, J APPL ECOL, V33, P161 LLOYD JW, 1999, GWA199954 I SOIL CLI LOMBARD AT, 1997, CONSERV BIOL, V11, P1101 LOMBARD AT, 1999, PLANT ECOL, V142, P35 MACDONALD IAW, 1986, ECOLOGY MANAGEMENT B, P77 MARGULES CR, 2000, NATURE, V405, P243 MASTER LL, 1991, CONSERV BIOL, V5, P559 MAZE KE, 1999, CORE FLORA CONSERVAT MENON S, 2001, CONSERV BIOL, V15, P501 MITTERMEIER RA, 1998, CONSERV BIOL, V12, P516 MOODY A, 1995, LANDSCAPE ECOL, V10, P363 MYERS N, 1990, ENVIRONMENTALIST, V10, P243 MYERS N, 2000, NATURE, V403, P853 NOSS RF, 1997, SCI CONSERVATION PLA PETERSON AT, 2001, BIOSCIENCE, V51, P363 PRESSEY RL, 1996, FOREST ECOL MANAG, V85, P311 PRESSEY RL, 1997, NATL PARKS PROTECTED, P337 PRESSEY RL, 2001, BIOL CONSERV, V100, P355 PRESSEY RL, 2001, CONSERV BIOL, V15, P275 PRESSEY RL, 2003, BIOL CONSERV, V112, P99 REBELO AG, 1990, BIOL CONSERV, V54, P17 REBELO AG, 1991, PROTEA ATLAS MANUAL REBELO AG, 1992, CONSERV BIOL, V6, P243 REBELO AG, 1992, T ROY SOC S AFR, V48, P55 REICHARD SH, 1997, CONSERV BIOL, V11, P193 RICHARDSON DM, 1992, ECOLOGY FYNBOS NUTR, P271 RICHARDSON DM, 1996, BIODIVERS CONSERV, V5, P607 RICHARDSON DM, 1997, VEGETATION SO AFRICA, P535 RICHARDSON DM, 2000, INVASIVE SPECIES CHA, P303 RIEBSAME WE, 1994, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V28, P45 ROJAS M, 1992, CONSERV BIOL, V6, P170 ROUGET M, 2001, PLANT ECOL, V152, P79 ROUGET M, 2003, BIOL CONSERV, V112, P129 ROUGET M, 2003, BIOL CONSERV, V112, P217 SERNEELS S, 2001, AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON, V85, P65 SHOSHANY M, 2000, PROG PHYS GEOG, V24, P153 SISK TD, 1994, BIOSCIENCE, V44, P592 SOULE ME, 1991, SCIENCE, V253, P744 STOMS DM, 2000, LANDSCAPE ECOL, V15, P21 SWENSON JJ, 2000, LANDSCAPE ECOL, V15, P713 THEOBALD DM, 2000, LANDSCAPE ECOL, V15, P35 TOU JT, 1974, PATTERN RECOGNITION TURPIE JK, 2003, BIOL CONSERV, V112, P233 VAYSSIERES MP, 2000, J VEG SCI, V11, P679 VELDKAMP A, 2001, AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON, V85, P1 VERSFELD DB, 1998, ALIEN INVADING PLANT VLOK JHJ, 1988, S AFR J BOT, V54, P623 WEAR DN, 1998, ECOL APPL, V8, P619 WHITE D, 1997, CONSERV BIOL, V11, P349 WILCOVE DS, 1998, BIOSCIENCE, V48, P607 WILSON EO, 1992, DIVERSITY LIFE WOOD J, 1994, STRELITZIA, V1, P259 WOODWARD FI, 1987, CLIMATE PLANT DISTRI NR 82 TC 20 J9 BIOL CONSERV BP 63 EP 85 PY 2003 PD JUL-AUG VL 112 IS 1-2 GA 679HC UT ISI:000182913800005 ER PT J AU El Naqa, A TI Aquifer vulnerability assessment using the DRASTIC model at Russeifa landfill, northeast Jordan SO ENVIRONMENTAL GEOLOGY LA English DT Article C1 Hashemite Univ, Fac Nat Resources & Environm, Dept Water Technol & Environm, Zarqa 13115, Jordan. RP El Naqa, A, Hashemite Univ, Fac Nat Resources & Environm, Dept Water Technol & Environm, POB 150459, Zarqa 13115, Jordan. AB Groundwater is inherently susceptible to contamination from anthropogenic activities and remediation is very difficult and expensive. Prevention of contamination is hence critical in effective groundwater management. In this paper an attempt has been made to assess aquifer vulnerability at the Russeifa solid waste landfill. This disposal site is placed at the most important aquifer in Jordan, which is known as Amman-Wadi Sir (B2/A7). The daily-generated leachate within the landfill is about 160 m(3)/day and there is no system for collecting and treating this leachate. Therefore, the leachate infiltrates to groundwater and degrades the quality of the groundwater. The area is strongly vulnerable to pollution due to the presence of intensive agricultural activity, the solid waste disposal site and industries. Increasing groundwater demand makes the protection of the aquifer from pollution crucial. Physical and hydrogeological characteristics make the aquifer susceptible to pollution. The vulnerability of groundwater to contamination in the study area was quantified using the DRASTIC model. The DRASTIC model uses the following seven parameters: depth to water, recharge, aquifer media, soil media, topography, impact on vadose zone and hydraulic conductivity. The water level data were measured in the observation wells within the disposal site. The recharge is derived based on precipitation, land use and soil characteristics. The aquifer media was obtained from a geological map of the area. The topography is obtained from the Natural Resources Authority of Jordan, 1:50,000 scale topographic map. The impact on the vadose zone is defined by the soil permeability and depth to water. The hydraulic conductivity was obtained from the field pumping tests. The calculated DRASTIC index number indicates a moderate pollution potential for the study area. CR *US EPA, 1987, DRASTIC US MAN ALLER L, 1987, EPA600287035 ARNOLD D, 1992, STANDARD METHODS EXA BAJALLI W, 1997, INCO MED WAT C AMM 1, P13 BENDER F, 1974, GEOLOGY JORDAN CON S, V7 BRATICEVIC D, 1997, GROUND WATER WINDOWS CHOPRA M, 2001, UNPUB SOLID WASTE MA CHRISTENSEN TH, 1993, CRITICAL REV ENV SCI, V24, P119 DEICHERT LA, 1992, ASAE INT WINT M NASH FARQUHAR G, 1989, CAN J CIVIL ENG, V16, P82 HOWARD J, 1983, MONITORING EVALUATIO, V1 KUISI M, 1992, THESIS U JORDAN LEE GF, 1991, P 5 NAT OUTD ACT C A, P257 LEE GF, 1993, P SARD 93 4 INT LAND MASRI M, 1963, REPORT GEOLOGY AMMAN, P1 MERCHANT JW, 1994, PHOTOGRAMM ENG REM S, V60, P1117 MIKBEL S, 1986, N JB GEOL PALEONT MH, V9, P571 NAGAR BB, 2002, ELECT GREEN J, V17, P10 NAPOLITANO P, 1995, THESIS ITC ENSCHEDE OLEARY P, 1995, DECISION MAKERS GUID, V2 PIPER H, 1944, T AM GEOPHYS UNION, V25, P915 PISCOPO G, 2001, GROUNDWATER VULNERAB RIMAWI O, 1985, THESIS TU MUNCHEN SALAMEH E, 1993, WATER RESOURCES JORD SCHNOOR J, 1996, ENV MODELING FATE TR TADROS Z, 2000, THESIS U JORDAN THIRUMALAIVASAN D, 2001, 22 AS C REM SENS 5 9 NR 27 TC 0 J9 ENVIRON GEOL BP 51 EP 62 PY 2004 PD DEC VL 47 IS 1 GA 886CW UT ISI:000226205500007 ER PT J AU Stalley, P TI Environmental scarcity and international conflict SO CONFLICT MANAGEMENT AND PEACE SCIENCE LA English DT Article C1 George Washington Univ, Washington, DC 20052 USA. RP Stalley, P, George Washington Univ, Washington, DC 20052 USA. AB Since the end of the Cold War, scholars have increasingly turned their attention to examining the link between depletion of renewable resources and conflict. Within this environmental security literature, academic opinion varies across a wide spectrum with some predicting a dark future of environmental "resource wars" both between and within nations, while others question the extent to which environmental variables play any role in inducing conflict. This paper builds on the findings of previous case and statistical studies and presents a cross-national, time-series multivariate analysis of the relationship between militarized international disputes and the environmental variables most commonly cited in the qualitative literature-freshwater, soil, fish, and population. These environmental variables are tested individually and in combination, while controlling for other conflict-generating factors. The general finding is that states suffering from greater levels of environmental scarcity are more likely to be involved in a militarized international dispute. CR 2002, WASHINGTON POST 1002 *OC CONS, 2002, HLTH OC 2002 REP *WRI, 1999, WORLD RES GUID GLOB ACHEN CH, 2000, ANN M POL METH AM PO BECK N, 1998, AM J POLIT SCI, V42, P1260 BROWN LR, 1999, FMALTHUS BUTTS KH, 1997, PARAMETERS, V27, P65 DEUDNEY DH, 1999, CONTESTED GROUNDS SE DURHAM WH, 1979, SCARCITY SURVIVAL CE ESTY DC, 1999, ENV CHANGE SECURITY, V5, P49 FAIRLIE S, 1999, ECOLOGY POLITICS VIO GARTZKE E, 2001, INT ORGAN, V55, P391 GLEDITSCH NP, 2001, ENV CONFLICT GLEICK PH, 1991, B ATOM SCI, V47, P16 GOLDSTONE JA, 2001, ENV CONFLICT GOWA J, 1995, INT ORGAN, V49, P511 HAUGE W, 2001, ENV CONFLICT HOMERDIXON T, 1998, ECOVIOLENCE LINKS EN HOMERDIXON T, 1999, ENV SCARCITY VIOLENC JONES DM, 1996, CONFLICT MANAG PEACE, V15, P163 KAPLAN RD, 1994, ATLANTIC MONTHLY FEB, V273, P44 KING G, 1991, AM J POLIT SCI, V35, P1047 KING G, 2000, AM J POLIT SCI, V44, P347 KLARE MT, 2001, RESOURCE WARS NEW LA LEVY M, 1995, INT SECURITY, V20, P189 LEVY MA, 1995, INT SECURITY, V20, P35 LIBISZEWSKI S, 1999, ECOLOGY POLITICS VIO LOMBORG B, 2001, ENV CONFLICT MATHEWS JT, 1989, FOREIGN AFF, V68, P162 MATTHEW R, 1999, ANARCHY ENV INT RELA MILDARSKY MI, 2001, ENV CONFLICT MYERS N, 1993, ULTIMATE SECURITY EN ONEAL JR, 1997, INT STUD QUART, V41, P267 PEARL J, 1993, GRAPHS CAUSALITY STR RENNER M, 1996, FIGHTING SURVIVAL EN ROZANOV BG, 1990, EARTH TRANSFORMED HU SHIKLOMANOV I, 1993, WATER CRISIS GUIDE W STERN PC, 1992, GLOBAL ENV CHANGE UN TIR J, 2001, ENV CONFLICT TOMZ M, 2001, CLARIFY SOFTWARE INT TOSET HPW, 2000, POLIT GEOGR, V19, P971 TUCKER R, 1999, BTSCS BINARY TIME SE WILLIAMS F, 2002, FINANCIAL TIMES 0719 WILLIAMS M, 1990, EARTH TRANSFORMED HU WOLF A, 1999, ENV CHANGE ADAPTATIO NR 45 TC 0 J9 CONFLICT MANAG PEACE SCI BP 33 EP 58 PY 2003 PD FAL VL 20 IS 2 GA 753RJ UT ISI:000187244100002 ER PT J AU Knapp, RA Hawkins, CP Ladau, J McClory, JG TI Fauna of Yosemite National Park lakes has low resistance but high resilience to fish introductions SO ECOLOGICAL APPLICATIONS LA English DT Article C1 Univ Calif, Sierra Nevada Aquat Res Lab, Crowley Lake, CA 93546 USA. Utah State Univ, Dept Aquat Watershed & Earth Resources, Logan, UT 84322 USA. Cornell Univ, Sect Neurobiol & Behav, Ithaca, NY 14853 USA. RP Knapp, RA, POB 1084, Girdwood, AK 99587 USA. AB The ratio of the number of taxa observed at a site to that expected to occur in the absence of anthropogenic impacts (O/E) is an ecologically meaningful measure of the degree of faunal alteration. We used O/E ratios to describe the response by amphibian, reptile, benthic macroinvertebrate, and zooplankton taxa in originally fishless lakes in Yosemite National Park to the introduction and subsequent disappearance of nonnative fish. To quantify resistance (the degree to which a system is altered when the environment changes) and resilience (the degree to which a system returns to its previous configuration once the perturbation is removed), we compared O/E ratios between lakes that were never stocked, were previously stocked and still contained fish, or were previously stocked but had reverted to a fishless condition. On average, stocked- fish-present sites had 16% fewer taxa than never-stocked sites (O/E = 0.84 vs. 1.00, respectively). This statistically significant difference in O/E ratios indicates that native fauna had relatively low resistance to fish introductions. Resistance was inversely related to fish density and elevation, and directly related to water depth. Vulnerability to impacts of trout predation differed markedly between faunal groups, being high for amphibians, reptiles, conspicuous benthic invertebrates, and zooplankton and low for inconspicuous benthic invertebrates. O/E ratios in stocked-now-fishless sites were significantly higher (1.00) than those in stocked-fish-present sites and were not significantly different from those in never-stocked sites, indicating that this fauna had high resilience. For stocked-now-fishless sites, the relationship between the O/E ratio and the number of years since fish disappearance indicated that taxonomic composition recovered to closely resemble that of never-stocked lakes in less than two years following fish disappearance. Collectively, these result's indicate that despite strong effects of an introduced predatory fish on community structure, these systems recover quickly and predictably following fish removal. CR *SYSTAT, 2000, STAT I US MAN ANDERSON O, 1984, ECOLOGY, V65, P851 ANDERSON RS, 1980, EVOLUTION ECOLOGY ZO, P635 ARMITAGE PD, 1987, HYDROBIOLOGIA, V144, P25 BARBEAU A, 1984, NEUROTOXICOLOGY, V5, P13 BELBIN L, 1993, J VEG SCI, V4, P341 BELK D, 2002, HYDROBIOLOGIA, V486, P49 BIRCH LC, 1948, J ANIM ECOL, V17, P15 BOIANO DM, 1999, THESIS HUMBOLDT STAT BOTTI SJ, 1977, UNPUB STATUS FISH PO BRADFORD DF, 1989, COPEIA, P775 BRADFORD DF, 1994, SOUTHWEST NAT, V39, P323 BRADFORD DF, 1998, CAN J FISH AQUAT SCI, V55, P2478 CARLISLE DM, 1998, J N AM BENTHOL SOC, V17, P286 CARPENTER SR, 1993, TROPHIC CASCADE LAKE CLARK LA, 1992, STAT MODELS S, P377 CLARKE RT, 1996, J APPL STAT, V23, P311 CLARKE RT, 2003, ECOL MODEL, V160, P219 CONNELL JH, 1983, AM NAT, V121, P789 CRUMP ML, 1994, MEASURING MONITORING, P84 DEATH G, 2000, ECOLOGY, V81, P3178 DIEHL S, 1992, ECOLOGY, V73, P1646 DONALD DB, 1994, CAN J ZOOL, V72, P259 DONALD DB, 2001, CAN J FISH AQUAT SCI, V58, P1822 DROST CA, 1996, CONSERV BIOL, V10, P414 ELLIOT MJ, 1992, UNPUB HIST OVERVIEW ERIKSEN C, 1999, FAIRY SHRIMPS CALIFO FAITH DP, 1987, VEGETATIO, V69, P57 FROST TM, 1998, RESTOR ECOL, V6, P336 HAIRSTON NG, 1995, ECOLOGY, V76, P1706 HARRIS RP, 2000, ICES ZOOPLANKTON MET HAWKINS CP, 2000, ECOL APPL, V10, P1456 HAWKINS CP, 2001, BIOASSESSMENT MANAGE, P59 HERBOLD B, 1986, AM NAT, V128, P751 JENNINGS WB, 1992, J HERPETOL, V26, P503 JEPPESEN E, 2003, ECOSYSTEMS, V6, P313 KING RS, 2002, J N AM BENTHOL SOC, V21, P150 KNAPP RA, 1998, RESTOR ECOL, V6, P207 KNAPP RA, 2000, CONSERV BIOL, V14, P428 KNAPP RA, 2001, ECOL MONOGR, V71, P401 KNAPP RA, 2003, ECOL APPL, V13, P1069 KOLAR CS, 2002, SCIENCE, V298, P1233 LEAVITT PR, 1994, CAN J FISH AQUAT SCI, V51, P2411 LEPPA M, 2003, HYDROBIOLOGIA, V498, P97 MARCHANT R, 1997, J N AM BENTHOL SOC, V16, P664 MATTHEWS KR, 1999, J HERPETOL, V33, P615 MATTHEWS KR, 2002, J HERPETOL, V36, P16 MCNAUGHT AS, 1999, LIMNOL OCEANOGR, V44, P127 MERRITT RW, 1996, INTRO AQUATIC INSECT MITTELBACH GG, 1995, ECOLOGY, V76, P2347 MOSS D, 1987, FRESHWATER BIOL, V17, P41 MOSS D, 1999, FRESHWATER BIOL, V41, P167 NICHOLS FH, 1990, MAR ECOL-PROG SER, V66, P95 OSTERMILLER JD, 2004, J N AM BENTHOL SOC, V23, P363 PENNAK RW, 1989, FRESHWATER INVERTEBR PIERCE CL, 1997, FRESHWATER BIOL, V37, P397 PILLIOD DS, 2001, ECOSYSTEMS, V4, P322 PIMM SL, 1991, BALANCE NATURE ECOLO REJMANEK M, 1996, ECOLOGY, V77, P1655 REYNOLDSON TB, 2000, ASSESSING BIOL QUALI, P293 ROY M, 2003, BIOCONTROL, V48, P57 SARNELLE O, 2004, LIMNOL OCEANOGR 2, V49, P1382 SAVIDGE JA, 1987, ECOLOGY, V68, P660 SAVINO JF, 1982, T AM FISH SOC, V111, P255 SCHINDLER DE, 2001, ECOSYSTEMS, V4, P308 SIMBERLOFF D, 1981, BIOTIC CRISES ECOLOG, P53 STACHOWICZ JJ, 2002, ECOLOGY, V83, P2575 STODDARD JL, 1987, J PLANKTON RES, V9, P631 THERNEAU TM, 1997, INTRO RECURSIVE PART VREDENBURG VT, 2004, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V101, P7646 WARD JV, 1982, ANNU REV ENTOMOL, V27, P97 WILCOVE DS, 1998, BIOSCIENCE, V48, P607 WRIGHT JF, 1984, FRESHWATER BIOL, V14, P221 WRIGHT JF, 1995, AUST J ECOL, V20, P181 NR 74 TC 5 J9 ECOL APPL BP 835 EP 847 PY 2005 PD JUN VL 15 IS 3 GA 934QN UT ISI:000229723400006 ER PT J AU Kleinosky, LR Yarnal, B Fisher, A TI Vulnerability of Hampton Roads, Virginia to storm-surge flooding and sea-level rise SO NATURAL HAZARDS LA English DT Article C1 Penn State Univ, Ctr Integrated Reg Assessment, University Pk, PA 16802 USA. RP Yarnal, B, Penn State Univ, Ctr Integrated Reg Assessment, University Pk, PA 16802 USA. AB Sea-level rise will increase the area covered by hurricane storm surges in coastal zones. This research assesses how patterns of vulnerability to storm-surge flooding could change in Hampton Roads, Virginia as a result of sea-level rise. Physical exposure to storm-surge flooding is mapped for all categories of hurricane, both for present sea level and for future sea-level rise. The locations of vulnerable sub-populations are determined through an analysis and mapping of socioeconomic characteristics commonly associated with vulnerability to environmental hazards and are compared to the flood-risk exposure zones. Scenarios are also developed that address uncertainties regarding future population growth and distribution. The results show that hurricane storm surge presents a significant hazard to Hampton Roads today, especially to the most vulnerable inhabitants of the region. In addition, future sea-level rise, population growth, and poorly planned development will increase the risk of storm-surge flooding, especially for vulnerable people, thus suggesting that planning should steer development away from low-lying coastal and near-coastal zones. CR 2004, UN STAT GEOL SURV *HAMPT ROADS PLANN, 2003, HAMPT ROADS 2003 DAT *IHDP, 2001, IHDP UPDATE, V2, P1 *NAT HURR CTR, 2005, HURR AW STORM SURG *NAT HURR CTR, 2005, SAFF SIMP HURR SCAL *NAT WEATH SERV, 2005, HURR STORM SURG FOR *NOAA COAST SERV C, 1999, COMM VULN ASS TOOL N *NPA DAT SERV, 1998, REG EC PROJ SERV *VIRG DEP EM MAN, 2005, LIBR HURR HIST COAST *VIRG EC DEV PARTN, 2004, ALL INF EXCH GEOGR I BINGHAM E, 1991, VIRGINIA GEOGRAPHER, V23, P19 BOON J, 2004, 3 FACES ISABEL STORM CHURCH JA, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 CLARK GE, 1998, MITIGATION ADAPTATIO, V3, P59 CLARK WC, 2000, ASSESSING VULNERABIL COBB HD, 1991, WEATHERWISE, V44, P24 CUTTER SL, 2000, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V90, P713 FLATHER RA, 1993, CLIMATE SEA LEVEL CH, P229 GEORGE D, 2003, SPSS WINDOWS STEP ST GONNERT G, 2004, NAT HAZARDS, V32, P211 JELESNIANSKI C, 1992, 48 NOAA NWS, V48 KASPERSON JX, 2001, INT WORKSH VULN GLOB KLEINOSKY LR, 2005, IN PRESS MITIGATION LEATHERMAN SP, VANISHING LANDS SEA LUERS AL, 2003, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V13, P255 MCINNES KL, 2003, NAT HAZARDS, V30, P187 MCLEAN RF, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, P343 NAJJAR RG, 2000, CLIMATE RES, V14, P219 NICHOLLS RJ, 1996, COAST MANAGE, V24, P301 NICHOLLS RJ, 1999, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V9, P69 PICKARD A, 2003, HAMPTON ROAD 200 202 POWARS D, 2000, 1622 US GEOL SURV, V1612 PSUTY NP, 1992, OCEAN MANAGEMENT GLO, P502 SCHNEIDER S, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, P75 TSYBAN AV, 1990, CLIMATE CHANGE IPCC, P1 WALKER HJ, 1987, GEOMORPHIC SYSTEMS N, V2, P51 WU SY, 2002, CLIMATE RES, V22, P255 NR 37 TC 0 J9 NATURAL HAZARDS BP 43 EP 70 PY 2007 PD JAN VL 40 IS 1 GA 125NR UT ISI:000243449300003 ER PT J AU Zerbe, N TI Feeding the famine? American food aid and the GMO debate in Southern Africa SO FOOD POLICY LA English DT Editorial Material C1 Humboldt State Univ, Dept Govt & Polit, Arcata, CA 95521 USA. Catholic Univ Louvain, Ctr Philosophy Law, Louvain, Belgium. RP Zerbe, N, Humboldt State Univ, Dept Govt & Polit, Arcata, CA 95521 USA. AB The inclusion of genetically modified maize in food aid shipments to Southern Africa during the 2002 food crisis rekindled debates over agricultural biotechnology. As the region edged ever closer to famine - putting the lives to some 14 million Africans at risk - corporate pundits, government officials and biotech's critics debated the health and environmental dangers posed by the new technology. By situating the decision to send genetically modified maize to Southern Africa in the context of US-European debates over agricultural biotechnology, it becomes clear that the promotion of biotechnology has nothing to do with ending hunger in the region. Indeed, American food aid shipments to Southern Africa have little to do with the famine at all. Instead, I argue that US food aid policy following the 2002 crisis was intended to promote the adoption of biotech crops in Southern Africa, expanding the market access and control of transnational corporations and undermining local smallholder production thereby fostering greater food insecurity on the Continent. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *AM CORN GROW ASS, 2001, CORN GROW 3 ANN SURV *BBC, 2003, BISH AFRICA HOSTAGE *EC, 2003, WTO CAS GMOS *FAO, 2002, FOOD SUPPL CROP PROS *GAO, 2003, FOR ASS SUST EFF NEE *GRAIN, 2002, BETT DEAD GM FED *GRREENP, 2002, USAID GM SOOD AID WATSON RT, 1998, REGIONAL IMPACTS CLI, V1, P1 *IRIN, 2002, MAL IMF DEN CULP MAL *OECD, 2000, AGR POL OECD COUNTR *OXF, 2002, 89 OXF *PION HI BRED INT, 2000, EL GRAIN ACC SURV *REUT, 1999, ADM WARNS SUPPL BEG *SADC, 2002, REG EM FOOD ASS REP *UNECA, 2002, HARN TECHN SUST DEV *US DEP STAT, 2002, QUEST ANSW US FOOD A *US HOUS REPR COMM, 2002, DEV FOOD SEC CRIS SO *USAID, 1997, DEVELOPMENTS SUM, P1 *USAID, 2003, BIOT FACT SHEET *USDA FAS, 2003, US EXP SAL REP *WORLD MET ORG, 1995, GLOB CLIM SYST REV C BOND P, 2003, BUSH S AFRICA COUNTE CAUVAIN H, 2002, ZAMBIAN LEADER BAN G DEVEREUX S, 2002, STATE DISASTER CAUSE DIVEN PJ, 2001, FOOD POLICY, V26, P455 HALL T, 2002, ECONOMIST SEP HULME M, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE SO AF JUBILEE, 2000, IMF BOSS BLAMES WORL LEVIDOW L, 2000, ENVIRONMENT, V41, P10 LEVIDOW L, 2000, INT J BIOTECHNOLOGY, V2, P257 MAIL, 2002, ZAMBIA REJECTS UN AP PETTIFOR A, 2003, MALAWI FEOCED DANCE ROBINSON S, 2002, TIME 1124 SEN AK, 1981, Q J ECON, V1, P433 SEN AK, 1980, WORLD DEV, V8, P613 SHARMA D, 2002, ACHIEVING EFFECTIVE VIDAL J, 2002, GUARDIAN OCT WEISS R, 2002, US GE TAINTED FOOD A ZERBE N, 2002, UNPUB INT STUD ASS ZERBE N, 2003, THESIS YORK U TORONT NR 40 TC 3 J9 FOOD POLICY BP 593 EP 608 PY 2004 PD DEC VL 29 IS 6 GA 886KR UT ISI:000226226600001 ER PT J AU Lewsey, C Cid, G Kruse, E TI Assessing climate change impacts on coastal infrastructure in the Eastern Caribbean SO MARINE POLICY LA English DT Article C1 NOAA, Int Programs Off, Natl Ocean Serv, Silver Spring, MD 20910 USA. RP Lewsey, C, NOAA, Int Programs Off, Natl Ocean Serv, 1315 East West Highway,SSMC3, Silver Spring, MD 20910 USA. AB Expected effects of changes in global climate include warmer temperatures, rising sea levels, and potentially more frequent and severe extreme weather events such as hurricanes and tropical storms. Low-lying states in the Caribbean are especially vulnerable to these effects, posing significant risks to public safety and natural resources. This paper highlights expected trends in the Eastern Caribbean and examines the impacts of urbanization and supporting infrastructure, siting of major structures in high-hazard areas, and negative land-use practices on fragile coastal ecosystems. It focuses on the need to reduce the vulnerability of coastal infrastructure and land uses, arguing for effective linkages between climate change issues and development planning. The paper also provides general recommendations and identifies challenges for the incorporation of climate change impacts and risk assessment into long-term land-use national development plans and strategies. Published by Elsevier Ltd. CR 2002, JAMAICA SUSTAINABLE *ANT BARB GOV, 2001, ANT97GC299 ANT BARB *BEL GOV, 2001, BEL COUNTR PAP NATL *CARR ENV NETW, 1997, 5980832 CARR ENV NET *CEP UNEP CEP, 2002, MAR ISS *CEP, 1989, IMPL CLIM CHANG WID *CEP, 1997, 38 UNEP CEP *COMM BAH, 2001, UNPUB UN FRAM CONV C *CSI, 1998, PLANN COAST CHANG E *EARTHSC PUBL LTD, 1999, UN ENV PROGR CARIBB *FAO, 1999, WORK PAP ENV NAT RES *GOV BARB, 2001, BARB 1 NAT COMM UN F *GOV SAINT LUC, 2002, COAST ZON MAN SAINT *INT PAN CLIM CHAN, 2001, CLIM CHANG 2001 IMP *IPCC, 1991, CLIM CHANG IPCC RESP WATSON RT, 1998, REGIONAL IMPACTS CLI, V1, P1 *ISL RES FDN, 1996, GUID BEST MAN PRACT *UNEP, 1997, GLOB ENV OUTL *US DEP COMM NOAA, 2001, REV EC INSTR METH M *W AUSTR WAT RIV C, 2000, WAT FACT SHEET, V11 ELLISON AM, 1996, BIOTROPICA A, V28, P549 LEMAY M, 1298 INT AM DEV BANK VERMEIREN J, 2000, WORLD BANK DISASTER, V2 WASON A, 1999, STAT BUILD COD CARIB NR 24 TC 0 J9 MAR POLICY BP 393 EP 409 PY 2004 PD SEP VL 28 IS 5 GA 837YD UT ISI:000222676400004 ER PT J AU Tol, RSJ TI Is the uncertainty about climate change too large for expected cost-benefit analysis? SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 Univ Hamburg, Ctr Marine & Climate Res, D-2000 Hamburg, Germany. Free Univ Amsterdam, Inst Environm Studies, NL-1081 HV Amsterdam, Netherlands. Carnegie Mellon Univ, Ctr Integrated Study Human Dimens Global Change, Pittsburgh, PA 15213 USA. RP Tol, RSJ, Univ Hamburg, Ctr Marine & Climate Res, D-2000 Hamburg, Germany. AB Cost-benefit analysis is only applicable if the variances of both costs and benefits are finite. In the case of climate change, the variances of the net present marginal costs and benefits of greenhouse gas emission reduction need to be finite. Finiteness is hard, if not impossible to prove. The opposite is easier to establish as one only needs to show that there is one, not impossible representation of the climate change with infinite variance. The paper shows that all relevant current variables of the FUND model have finite variances. However, there is a small chance that climate change reverses economic growth in some regions. In that case, the discount rate becomes negative and the net present marginal benefits of greenhouse gas emission reduction becomes very large. So large, that its variance is unbounded. One could interpret this as an indication that cost-benefit analysis is invalid. Alternatively, one could argue that the infinity is present in both the base case and the policy scenario, and therefore irrelevant; in that interpretation, cost-benefit analysis is a valid tool. 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ETC UK, N Shields NE30 1NQ, Northd, England. RP O'Brien, G, Northumbria Univ, Sch Appl Sci, Newcastle Upon Tyne NE1 8ST, Tyne & Wear, England. AB Climate change, although a natural phenomenon, is accelerated by human activities. Disaster policy response to climate change is dependent on a number of factors, such as readiness to accept the reality of climate change, institutions and capacity, as well as willingness to embed climate change risk assessment and management in development strategies. These conditions do not yet exist universally. A focus that neglects to enhance capacity-building and resilience as a prerequisite for managing climate change risks will, in all likelihood, do little to reduce vulnerability to those risks. Reducing vulnerability is a key aspect of reducing climate change risk. To do so requires a new approach to climate change risk and a change in institutional structures and relationships. A focus on development that neglects to enhance governance and resilience as a prerequisite for managing climate change risks will, in all likelihood, do little to reduce vulnerability to those risks. CR *ADB, 2003, POV CLIM CHANG RED 1 *BBC, 2005, NEV AG 0703 *COP, 2002, SPEC CLIM CHANG FUND *DFID, 2004, DIS RISK RED DEV CON *DFID, 2004, KEY SHEET 06 AD CLIM *EMDAT, 2005, EMDAT INT DIS DAT CT *FEINST INT FAM CT, 2004, AMB CHANG HUM NGOS P *IFRC, 2002, WORLD DIS REP 2002 *IFRC, 2003, WORLD DIS REP 2003 *IPCC, 2001, CLIM CHANG 2001 WORK *MAN DECL, 2004, MAN DECL STAT WCDR I *MUN RE GROUP, 2002, ANN REV NAT CAT *NAT HLTH SERV, 2004, HEATW PLAN ENGL PROT *SPHER PROJ, 2005, HUM CHART MIN STAND *UKCIP, 1998, CLIM CHANG SCEN UK S *UN ISDR, 2001, REP WORK GROUP 3 ISD *UN ISDR, 2003, WORLD SUMM SUST DEV *UN ISDR, 2004, LIV RISK GLOB REV DI *UN ISDR, 2005, WORLD C DIS RED KOB *UN, 2002, REP WORLD SUMM SUST *UNDP, 2004, NAT AD PROGR ACT SUP *UNDP, 2004, RED DIS RISK CHALL D *UNFCCC, 1992, UN FRAM CONV CLIM CH *UNICEF, 2005, EM FIELD HDB GUID UN *UNISDR, 2002, INT STRAT DIS RED MI *VARG, 2005, DIS RISK MAN CHANG C *WORLD BANK, 2005, WORLD DEV IND 2005 ADGER WN, 2001, DEV CHANGE, V32, P667 ADGER WN, 2003, COUNTRY LEVEL RISK M ALEXANDER D, 2002, DISASTER PREVENTION, V1, P209 ALEXANDER D, 2002, PRINCIPLES EMERGENCY ALOISI S, 2005, SENEGAL MULLS GREEN BHATT M, 2002, CORPORATE SOCIAL RES BLONG R, 2004, NATURAL HAZARDS RISK BURTON I, 2004, LOOK LEAP RISK MANAG CANNON T, 2000, FLOODS, P43 CARDONA OD, 2004, DISASTER RISK RISK M DESSAI S, 2001, DEFINING EXPERIENCIN DILLEY M, 2005, NATURAL DISASTER HOT EMANUEL K, 2005, DIVINE WIND HIST SCI HARDOY JE, 2001, ENV PROBLEMS URBANIS HARMER A, 2004, 18 ODI HPG HEWITT K, 1997, REGIONS RISK GEOGRAP, V1, P1 HILDITCH L, 2005, EU HEROES VILLAINS W HOFMANN CA, 2004, 17 HPG ODI KELMAN I, 2005, ISLAND VULNERABILITY KENT R, 1999, NATURAL DISASTER MAN, P293 KING DA, 2004, SCIENCE, V303, P176 KREIMER A, 2001, OUR PLANET, V11 LARSEN J, 2003, RECORD HEAT WAVE EUR MAGRATH J, 2004, SMOKE THREATS RESPON MASIKA R, 2002, GENDER DEV CLIMATE C MASKREY A, 1993, DESASTRES SON NATURA MCENTIRE DA, 2002, PUBLIC ADMIN REV, V62, P267 MIDDLETON N, 1998, DISASTERS DEV POLITI MILETI DS, 1999, DISASTERS DESIGN REA OBRIEN G, 2004, P INT EM MAN SOC 11 OBRIEN G, 2005, DISASTER PREVENTION, V14, P353 PELLING M, 2001, ENV HAZARDS, V3, P49 PERRY RW, 2003, DISASTERS, V27, P336 QUARANTELLI E, 2001, DISASTER PREVENTION, V10, P325 REISNER M, 2003, DANGEROUS PLACE CALI SCAWTHORN C, 2000, WATER URBAN AREAS, P200 SMITH JB, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, P915 STEWART F, 2003, 108 U OXF QUEEN EL H SUSMAN P, 1983, INTERPRETATIONS CALA, P263 TOBIN GA, 1999, ENV HAZARDS, V1, P13 TOSHIHISA T, 1999, P 6 JAP US WORKDH UR VLEK P, 2005, NOTH BEG NOTH CREEP WISNER B, 2003, ENV HLTH EM DIS PRAC WISNER B, 2005, KOBE INTERPRETATIVE YODMANI S, 2001, AS PAC FOR POV 5 9 F NR 72 TC 0 J9 DISASTERS BP 64 EP 80 PY 2006 PD MAR VL 30 IS 1 GA 017LA UT ISI:000235693900006 ER PT J AU Jain, VK Davidson, RA TI Application of a regional hurricane wind risk forecasting model for wood-frame houses SO RISK ANALYSIS LA English DT Article C1 Cornell Univ, Sch Civil & Environm Engn, Ithaca, NY 14853 USA. AIR Worldwide Corp, Boston, MA USA. RP Davidson, RA, Cornell Univ, Sch Civil & Environm Engn, Hollister Hall, Ithaca, NY 14853 USA. AB Hurricane wind risk in a region changes over time due to changes in the number, type, locations, vulnerability, and value of buildings. A model was developed to quantitatively estimate changes over time in hurricane wind risk to wood-frame houses (defined in terms of potential for direct economic loss), and to estimate how different factors, such as building code changes and population growth, contribute to that change. The model, which is implemented in a simulation, produces a probability distribution of direct economic losses for each census tract in the study region at each time step in the specified time horizon. By changing parameter values and rerunning the analysis, the effects of different changes in the built environment on the hurricane risk trends can be estimated and the relative effectiveness of hypothetical mitigation strategies can be evaluated. Using a case study application for wood-frame houses in selected counties in North Carolina from 2000 to 2020, this article demonstrates how the hurricane wind risk forecasting model can be used: (1) to provide insight into the dynamics of regional hurricane wind risk - the total change in risk over time and the relative contribution of different factors to that change, and (2) to support mitigation planning. Insights from the case study include, for example, that the many factors contributing to hurricane wind risk for wood-frame houses interact in a way that is difficult to predict a priori, and that in the case study, the reduction in hurricane losses due to vulnerability changes (e. g., building code changes) is approximately equal to the increase in losses due to building inventory growth. The potential for the model to support risk communication is also discussed. CR *ENR, 2002, BUILD COST IND HIST *IBHS, 1998, LAND US PLANN NAT HA *IIPLR, 1995, COMM EXP COMM PROT H *ISO, 2002, INS SERV OFF MIT ONL *NAHB, 2004, HOUS FACTS FIG TREND *NCDEM, 2004, STAT 322 NAT HAZ MIT *NIBS, 2002, HAZUS WIND LOSS EST *US BUR CENS, 2003, POP COUNT DEC CENS N *US BUR CENS, 2003, TABL C3 PER CAP INC *US BUR CENS, 2004, TABL 5 HOUS UN EST 1 *US DEP HUD, 2001, COMM INN LESS LEARN BARNES J, 2001, N CAROLINAS HURRICAN BLAIKIE PM, 1994, RISK NATURAL HAZARDS, V1, P1 CHESSON HW, 2003, THEOR DECIS, V54, P57 DAVIDSON RA, 2003, J URBAN PLAN D-ASCE, V129, P211 ENGLEHARDT JD, 1996, RISK ANAL, V16, P81 GEORGIOU PN, 1985, THESIS U W ONTARIO C HEINZ HJ, 2000, HIDDEN COSTS COASTAL HUANG Z, 2001, J WIND ENG IND AEROD, V89, P605 JAIN VK, IN PRESS J INFRASTRU JAIN VK, 2005, NATURAL HAZARDS REV, V6, P88 KHAN MS, 1994, HURRICANES 1992 KUMAR VJ, 2005, THESIS CORNELL U KUNREUTHER HC, 1998, J RISK UNCERTAINTY, V16, P279 ORESKES N, 1994, SCIENCE, V263, P641 PIELKE RA, 2000, J CLIMATE, V13, P3625 STEWART MG, 2003, J WIND ENG IND AEROD, V91, P671 STEWART MG, 2003, NATURAL HAZARDS REV, V4, P12 SVENSON O, 1984, INFOR, V22, P196 NR 29 TC 0 J9 RISK ANAL BP 45 EP 58 PY 2007 PD FEB VL 27 IS 1 GA 144LS UT ISI:000244798100007 ER PT J AU Mahmood, R Meo, M Legates, DR Morrissey, ML TI The CERES-rice model-based estimates of potential monsoon season rainfed rice productivity in Bangladesh SO PROFESSIONAL GEOGRAPHER LA English DT Article C1 Western Kentucky Univ, Bowling Green, KY 42101 USA. Univ Oklahoma, Sci & Publ Policy Program, Norman, OK 73019 USA. Univ Oklahoma, Dept Civil Engn, Norman, OK 73019 USA. Univ Delaware, Ctr Climate Res, Newark, DE 19716 USA. Univ Oklahoma, Sch Meteorol, Norman, OK 73019 USA. RP Mahmood, R, Western Kentucky Univ, Bowling Green, KY 42101 USA. AB Agricultural practices in Bangladesh are largely dependent on the monsoonal rainfall. Historically, Bangladesh often experiences severe droughts and floods during the monsoon months, with significant crop losses during both extreme conditions. This article provides a quantitative assessment of potential monsoon-season aman rice for four transplanting dates: 1 June, 1 July, 15 July, and 15 August. A crop-growth simulation model, the CERES-Rice, is applied to sixteen locations representing major rice-growing regions of Bangladesh to determine baseline yield estimates for four transplanting dates. The applications were conducted for 1975 through 1987. Average potential yield in Bangladesh is 6,907, 5,039, 3,637, and 1,762 kg hat for the above transplanting dates, respectively. In other words, Bangladesh would obtain 27 percent, 48 percent, and 75 percent less yield for 1 July, 15 July, and 15 August transplanting, respectively, than for 1 June transplanting. Potential yield vulnerability is the least for 1 June transplanting (up to 5 percent) and the highest (up to 66 percent) for 15 July transplanting date. The model applications show that regional variations exist for potential yield and yield vulnerability for a particular transplanting date. In addition, response of yield and vulnerability for a region changes with transplanting dates. 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SO HYDROBIOLOGIA LA English DT Article C1 Middlesex Univ, Flood Hazard Res Ctr, Enfield EN3 4SA, Middx, England. Univ Cambridge, Dept Geog, Coastal Res Unit, Cambridge CB2 3EN, England. Univ Southampton, Sch Civil Engn & Environm, Southampton SO17 1BJ, Hants, England. RP McFadden, L, Middlesex Univ, Flood Hazard Res Ctr, Enfield EN3 4SA, Middx, England. AB A Wetland Change Model has been developed to identify the vulnerability of coastal wetlands at broad spatial (regional to global (mean spatial resolution of 85 km)) and temporal scales (modelling period of 100 years). The model provides a dynamic and integrated assessment of wetland loss, and a means of estimating the transitions between different vegetated wetland types and open water under a range of scenarios of sea-level rise and changes in accommodation space from human intervention. This paper is an overview of key issues raised in the process of quantifying broad-scale vulnerabilities of coastal wetlands to forcing from sea-level rise discussing controlling factors of tidal range, sediment availability and accommodation space, identification of response lags and defining the threshold for wetland loss and transition. 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AB Western social and political thought reveals two principle kinds of domination over nature. The first resembles the passionate drive of Hobbesian vainglory, the second the calculated procedures of Weberian herrschaft. Both forms of Western domination need to be understood before the roots of the current ecological crisis can be exposed. This article first traces the historical roots of each kind of domination. Next it examines two brief cases to illustrate the distinction between the two and the utility of the conceptual framework. Teddy Roosevelt exemplifies how vainglory can limit the environmental benefits of stewardship. World military organizations exemplify how herrschaft's rationalized behavior produces irrational results - reducing environmental security in the name of security. The future success of the environmental movement will rest on its ability to devise different solutions to these different kinds of human domination. CR *BIBLE, GENESIS BENDIX R, 1977, M WEBER INTELLECTUAL BRADFORD W, 1956, AM PURITANS THEIR PR CUTRIGHT PR, 1985, T ROOSEVELT MAKING C DRYZEK J, 1990, DISCRUSIVE DEMOCRACY GALTUNG J, 1982, ENV DEV MILITARY ACT HOBBES T, 1980, LEVIATHAN HOBBES T, 1991, CIVE MAN CITIZEN HULL DL, 1987, PHILOS EVOLUTION, V37 JEFFERSON T, 1984, T JEFFERSON WRITINGS KAY J, 1988, ENV ETHICS, V10 NASH RF, 1989, RIGHTS NATURE HIST E PAEHLKE RC, 1989, ENV FUTURE PROGR POL RENNER M, 1989, STATE WORLD 1989 RENNER M, 1991, STATE WORLD 1991 ROOSEVELT T, 1893, WILDERNESS HUNTER ROOSEVELT T, 1967, WRITINGS T ROOSEVELT SEED J, 1985, DEEP ECOLOGY WEBER M, 1958, PROTESTANT ETHIC WEBER M, 1964, M WEBER ESSAYS SOCIO WEBER M, 1978, EC SOC WESTING AH, 1986, GLOBAL RESOURCES INT WHITE L, 1968, DYNAMO VIRGIN RECONS WOLIN S, 1981, POLITICAL THEORY, V9 NR 24 TC 0 J9 J POLIT MIL SOC BP 181 EP 195 PY 1993 PD WIN VL 21 IS 2 GA MU761 UT ISI:A1993MU76100003 ER PT J AU Folke, C TI Resilience: The emergence of a perspective for social-ecological systems analyses SO GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS LA English DT Article C1 Stockholm Univ, Dept Syst Ecol, CTM, Ctr Transdisciplinary Environm Res, SE-10691 Stockholm, Sweden. Royal Swedish Acad Sci, Beijer Int Inst Ecol Econ, Stockholm, Sweden. RP Folke, C, Stockholm Univ, Dept Syst Ecol, CTM, Ctr Transdisciplinary Environm Res, SE-10691 Stockholm, Sweden. AB The resilience perspective is increasingly used as an approach for understanding the dynamics of social-ecological systems. This article presents the origin of the resilience perspective and provides an overview of its development to date. With roots in one branch of ecology and the discovery of multiple basins of attraction in ecosystems in the 1960-1970s, it inspired social and environmental scientists to challenge the dominant stable equilibrium view. The resilience approach emphasizes non-linear dynamics, thresholds, uncertainty and surprise, how periods of gradual change interplay with periods of rapid change and how such dynamics interact across temporal and spatial scales. The history was dominated by empirical observations of ecosystem dynamics interpreted in mathematical models, developing into the adaptive management approach for responding to ecosystem change. Serious attempts to integrate the social dimension is currently taking place in resilience work reflected in the large numbers of sciences involved in explorative studies and new discoveries of linked social-ecological systems. Recent advances include understanding of social processes like, social learning and social memory, mental models and knowledge-system integration, visioning and scenario building, leadership, agents and actor groups, social networks, institutional and organizational inertia and change, adaptive capacity, transformability and systems of adaptive governance that allow for management of essential ecosystem services. (c) 2006 Published by Elsevier Ltd. 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ECOL, V6, P1 WALKER BH, 2004, ECOL SOC, V9, P5 WALKER BH, 1981, J ECOL, V69, P473 WALKER BH, 1992, CONSERV BIOL, V6, P18 WALKER BH, 2006, ECOL SOC, V11, P1 WALKER SM, 2002, J INST BRIT TELECO 1, V3, P19 WALTERS CJ, 1986, ADAPTIVE MANAGEMENT WESTLEY F, 2002, PANARCHY UNDERSTANDI, P333 WESTOBY M, 1989, J RANGE MANAGE, V42, P266 YOUNG OR, 2000, I DIMENSIONS ENV CHA ZIMMERER KS, 1994, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V84, P108 ZIMOV SA, 1995, AM NAT, V146, P765 NR 185 TC 7 J9 GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANGE BP 253 EP 267 PY 2006 PD AUG VL 16 IS 3 GA 073OJ UT ISI:000239752200004 ER PT J AU Baxter, J Greenlaw, K TI Explaining perceptions of a technological environmental hazard using comparative analysis SO CANADIAN GEOGRAPHER-GEOGRAPHE CANADIEN LA English DT Article C1 Univ Western Ontario, Dept Geog, London, ON N6A 5C2, Canada. Canadian Int Sch, Singapore, Singapore. RP Baxter, J, Univ Western Ontario, Dept Geog, London, ON N6A 5C2, Canada. AB This study addresses one of the main research problems in the area of environmental hazard risk-to explain why perception of threat from the same hazard varies between groups. We argue that the cultural theory of risk, explicitly place-contingent ways of life anti worldviews that support those ways of life, goes a long way towards explaining risk perception differences in the communities of Kinuso, Fort Assiniboine and Barrhead Alberta. Fifty-five in-depth interviews were conducted within these communities; three of the four communities are closest to the Alberta Special (hazardous) Waste Treatment Facility. A regional donut pattern of interviewee concern is partially explained as differential attachment to ways of life like farming, tourism and hunting for the concerned and amenityproximate rural living for the unconcerned. These relationships are further supported by worldviews like distrust and sensitivity to equity for the concerned and the price of progress for the unconcerned. Though this study is not about siting process per se, detailed conversations about the siting process indicate that the perceptions of risk (as concern) in the operational phase of this hazard were solidified early on and are likely difficult to change. 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It has been pursued collectively, with mentor, colleagues, students, and friends as a set of research questions related to hazards, hunger, and sustainable development. Regarding hazard, I tried to understand why people persist in occupying areas subject to natural and technological hazards and how adaptation made this possible. An extended stay in Africa to research both environment and development led to new queries. Why does hunger persist amid a world of plenty, and what can be done to end it? Can there be a transition to sustainability that over the next two generations would meet human needs and reduce hunger and poverty while maintaining the essential life support systems of the planet? All three themes and the research methods used to pursue them come together in an emerging sustainability science. 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RP Ackerman, GA, Monterey Inst Int Studies, WMD Terrorism Res Program, Ctr Nanoproliferat Studies, 460 Pierce St, Monterey, CA 93940 USA. AB This paper describes the evolving nature of threats and vulnerabilities associated with biological disasters with animal origins, and introduces some of the pitfalls and opportunities associated with anticipating future threats. Evolving threats and vulnerabilities include continued deforestation and encroachment on virgin habitats, the effects of globalisation on trade and transportation, the increased interdependence and social vulnerability of modern society, the commingling of intensive agriculture and traditional farming methods, the periodic appearance of pandemics and epizootics, and indications that numerous human actors are displaying an increasing interest in and capability of using biological agents as weapons. These developments must be viewed in the context of various impediments to accurately gauging future threats, such as the appearance of new elements that depart from current trends and the inherent difficulty in anticipating human, and especially terrorist, behaviour. The paper concludes with some broad recommendations for structuring a policy response to the threat in an environment of uncertainty about the future. CR *MINT I INT STUD, 2005, MONT WMD TERR DAT CASTILLOCHAVEZ C, 2002, MATH APPROACHES EM 1, V125 EPSTEIN J, 2004, CONTAINMENT STRATEGY FREUDENBURG WR, 1992, SOCIAL THEORIES RISK, P229 GLEICK J, 1988, CHAOS MAKING NEW SCI GODEL K, 1931, MONATSHEFTE MATH PHY, V38, P173 GOTTFRIED RS, 1985, BLACK DEATH KURTZ CF, 2003, IBM SYST J, V42, P462 MCNEILL W, 1998, PLAGUES PEOPLES PETERSEN JL, 2000, OUT BLUE TALEB N, 2006, IN PRESS BLACK SWAN THURMOND MC, 2003, J VET DIAGN INVEST, V15, P501 WALDROP MM, 1992, COMPLEXITY EMERGING NR 13 TC 0 J9 REV SCI TECH OIE BP 353 EP 360 PY 2006 PD APR VL 25 IS 1 GA 050LH UT ISI:000238088400027 ER PT J AU Bales, RC Liverman, DM Morehouse, BJ TI Integrated assessment as a step toward reducing climate vulnerability in the Southwestern United States SO BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY LA English DT Article C1 Univ Arizona, Dept Hydrol & Water Resources, Tucson, AZ 85721 USA. Univ Arizona, Ctr Latin Amer Studies, Tucson, AZ 85721 USA. Univ Arizona, Dept Geog, Tucson, AZ 85721 USA. Univ Arizona, Inst Study Planet Earth, Tucson, AZ 85721 USA. RP Bales, RC, Univ Calif Merced, Sch Engn, POB 2039, Merced, CA 95344 USA. AB Managing the effects of climate change requires new approaches to develop and deliver relevant climate information to regional and local decision makers, and to infuse that knowledge into their decision support systems. In the southwestern United States an alternative approach to integrated climate assessment is changing how both researchers and stakeholders view climate information and vulnerability. In this region, climate assessment is an ongoing, sustained process to improve climate awareness, change scientific research on climate, build effective research- applications partnerships around climate variability and change, and maintain those partnerships. The multiple activities in this regional climate assessment serve as a pilot for a broader climate services organization in the United States, and both highlight the crucial need for regional climate services and provide important lessons for implementation. CR *NAT ASS SYNTH TEA, 2001, CLIM CHANG IMP US PO *NAT SCI TECHN COU, 2002, OUR CHANG PLAN FY 20 AUSTIN D, 2000, CL200 CLIMAS U AR I BENQUISTA N, 1999, PILOT STAKEHOLDER AS BROWN DP, 2002, CLIMATE RES, V22, P115 CARTER RH, 2003, CLI03 CLIMAS U AR I CAVAZOS T, 2002, J CLIMATE, V15, P2477 EAKIN H, 1999, PHYS GEOGR, V20, P447 FRANZ KJ, 2003, J HYDROMETEOROL, V4, P1105 GARFIN G, 2001, 2001 FIR CLIM WORKSH GARFIN G, 2003, 2003 NAT SEAS ASS WO HARTMANN HC, 2002, B AM METEOROL SOC, V83, P683 HARTMANN HC, 2002, CLIMATE RES, V21, P239 LEMOS MC, 2002, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V55, P479 LIVERMAN DM, 2002, CLIMATE RES, V21, P199 MERIDETH R, 1998, CLIMATE CHANGE SW IM MOREHOUSE BJ, 2002, CLIMATE RES, V21, P283 SHEPPARD PR, 2002, CLIMATE RES, V21, P219 SPRIGG WA, 2000, PREPARING CHANGING C VASQUEZLEON M, 2003, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V13, P159 WATSON RT, 1998, REGIONAL IMPACTS CLI, V1, P1 NR 21 TC 0 J9 BULL AMER METEOROL SOC BP 1727 EP + PY 2004 PD NOV VL 85 IS 11 GA 877GZ UT ISI:000225557200013 ER PT J AU Wiesner-Steiner, A Lange, H Haarmann, M TI Climate change and risk management in northern German coast protection - A discourse analysis SO HISTORICAL SOCIAL RESEARCH-HISTORISCHE SOZIALFORSCHUNG LA German DT Article C1 Univ Bremen, FB 3, D-28359 Bremen, Germany. Univ Bremen, Forschungszentrum Nachhaltigkeit Seminar & Forsch, SFG, D-28359 Bremen, Germany. RP Wiesner-Steiner, A, Univ Bremen, FB 3, Bibliothekstr 1, D-28359 Bremen, Germany. AB Dealing with the local consequences of climate change and an accelerated sea-level rise, the political-administrative system plays a central role The following article focusses on results of a discourse analysis of the political-administrative coastal protection system at the german north sea coast and assesses the demands for longterm precautionary action. As part of the interdisciplinary research project KRIM we analyse both natural and social adaption options to extreme incidents (formulated as climate scenarios for the year 2050). Along with a summary of the discourse analysis, special attention is given to our methodological approach. Different aspects of the political-administrative risk assessment (the possibility of dike failure, the role of climate change research for coastal protection, the importance of discoursive and institutional boundary work) are brought up and wrapped to the methodological issues of our discourse analysis. The core thesis here is that the uncertainties of climate impact research get interpreted and absorbed within safety-discourses that draw on local know-how as well as on historical growing competences in coastal protection. 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Univ Vermont, Rubenstein Sch Environm & Nat Resouces, Burlington, VT 05401 USA. RP Khagram, S, Univ Washington, Seattle, WA 98195 USA. AB A broadening research program focused on environment and security emerged over the past 30 years. But the meaning and operationalization of environment and security have been an implicit and increasingly explicit part of the scholarly debate. Approaches range from the more specific focus on the linkages between environmental change and violent (deadly) conflict, the possible role of environmental conservation, cooperation, and collaboration in promoting peace, and the broader focus on potential relationships between environmental change and human security (understood as freedom from both violent conflict and physical want). In addition to the different conceptions of environment and security, the type and direction of causal relationships among different factors continue to be a focus of research. With respect to the environment and violent conflict, which constitute the largest explicit research stream on environment and security, the debate has centered on whether and why environmental scarcity, abundance, or dependence might cause militarized conflict. Less research has been conducted on the environmental effects of violent conflict and war or traditional security institutions such as militaries and military-industrial complexes. Rigorous research on the consequences of peace or human security for the environment is virtually nonexistent. 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Clark Univ, George Perkins Marsh Inst, Worcester, MA 01602 USA. East West Ctr, Honolulu, HI 96848 USA. Macro Int, Demog & Hlth Res Div, Calverton, MD 20705 USA. Univ N Carolina, Carolina Populat Ctr, Chapel Hill, NC 27516 USA. Univ N Carolina, Dept Sociol, Chapel Hill, NC 27599 USA. Univ N Carolina, Dept Geog, Chapel Hill, NC 27599 USA. RP Turner, BL, Clark Univ, Grad Sch Geog, Worcester, MA 01602 USA. AB Land-change science has emerged as a foundational element of global environment change and sustainability science. It seeks to understand the human and environment dynamics that give rise to changed land uses and covers, not only in terms of their type and magnitude but their location as well. This focus requires the integration of social, natural, and geographical information sciences. Each of these broad research communities has developed different ways to enter the land-change problem, each with different means of treating the locational specificity of the critical variables, such as linking the land manager to the parcel being managed. The resulting integration encounters various data, methodological, and analytical problems, especially those concerning aggregation and inference, land-use pixel links, data and measurement, and remote sensing analysis. Here, these integration problems, which hinder comprehensive understanding and theory development, are addressed. Their recognition and resolution are required for the sustained development of land-change science. 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Penn State Univ, Dept Geog, University Pk, PA 16802 USA. Penn State Univ, Dept Stat, University Pk, PA 16802 USA. Canaan Valley Inst, Thomas, WV USA. RP Myers, WL, Penn State Univ, Grad Studies Sch Forest Resources, University Pk, PA 16802 USA. AB The environmental purpose is to characterize watersheds in a region regarding vulnerability and resiliency relative to present and potential degradation of water quality due to human impact based on available spatial information and multidisciplinary expertise. Available information is of six general types as (1) physical and topographic conformation, (2) soil factors, (3) climatic factors, (4) hydrologic characteristics, (5) land-cover/land-use, and (6) prior records of sampling at selected locations for water quality and biological indicators. The strategy is first to develop cluster-based classes of watersheds that are expected to have similar responses to anthropogenic stressors, without using indicators of landscape condition that are directly influenced by local human activity. Watersheds in these classes can then be analyzed for degree of human influence as indicated by land-cover/land-use demographics. More sparse data on water quality and biological indicators at stream sampling locations provide a basis for determining the degradation response to human-induced stressors in each class along with potential for remediation. Focus in this paper is on the first task of cluster-based classification. Statistical adaptation comes in combining empirical objectivity of clustering with interdisciplinary environmental expertise, such that the trajectory of investigation arises from team expertise while the formulation is shaped statistically. Expertise enters initially in recognizing subsets of available descriptors that characterize different aspects of the watershed context needing to be explored separately rather than being completely confounded. Reduction of redundancy among available descriptors and removal of outliers are preliminary concerns. Clustering then proceeds through a series of phases using the sets of variables individually and in selected combinations. Contingency of composite clustering relative to separately clustered sets is examined via special cross tabulations in order to elucidate interactions between sets of variables. The spatial nature of the investigation contributes the major contextual capability for exercising team expertise through visualization using geographic information systems (GIS) that enhances and integrates insights from clustering, particularly with regard to spatial distribution of cluster membership. CR *MIN INC, 2003, MEET MINITAB REL 14 *USEPA, 2000, EPA903R00015, P64 BRYCE SA, 1996, ENVIRON MANAGE, V20, P297 BRYCE SA, 1999, ENV PRACTICE, V1, P141 CHRISMAN N, 2002, EXPLORING GEOGRAPHIC CLASSEN FAM, 1994, ECOSYSTEM CLASSIFICA, P199 COLLINS A, 1998, CONSERV VOICES, V1, P31 CONSTANTZ G, 2000, MT RES DEV, V20, P122 DETENBECK NE, 2000, ENVIRON TOXICOL CH 2, V19, P1174 DIGBY PGN, 1991, MULTIVARIATE ANAL EC GRIFFITH GE, 1999, J SOIL WATER CONSERV, V54, P666 GUNDERSON LH, 2000, ANNU REV ECOL SYST, V31, P425 HARTIGAN JA, 1975, CLUSTERING ALGORITHM HAWKINS CP, 2000, ECOL APPL, V10, P1456 HUNSAKER CT, 1995, BIOSCIENCE, V45, P193 IMHOF JG, 1996, CAN J FISH AQUAT S1, V53, P312 JOHNSON GD, 2001, J AM WATER RESOUR AS, V37, P821 JONES KB, 1997, EPA600R97130 JONES KB, 2001, LANDSCAPE ECOL, V16, P301 MCCUNE B, 2002, ANAL ECOLOGICAL COMM MCGARIGAL K, 2000, MULTIVARIATE STAT WI MORAIN S, 1999, GIS SOLUTIONS NATURA PODANI J, 2000, INTRO EXPLORATION MU ROHLF FJ, 1981, SYST ZOOL, V30, P459 WHITING PJ, 1993, EARTH SURF PROCESSES, V18, P603 NR 25 TC 0 J9 ENVIRON ECOL STAT BP 391 EP 407 PY 2006 PD DEC VL 13 IS 4 GA 100RH UT ISI:000241685800004 ER PT J AU Sohngen, B Sedjo, R TI Impacts of climate change on forest product markets: Implications for North American producers SO FORESTRY CHRONICLE LA English DT Article C1 Ohio State Univ, AED Econ, Columbus, OH 43210 USA. Resources Future Inc, Washington, DC 20036 USA. RP Sedjo, R, Ohio State Univ, AED Econ, 2120 Fyffe Rd, Columbus, OH 43210 USA. AB This paper examines potential climate change impacts in North American timber markets. The results indicate that climate change could increase productivity in forests in North America, increase productivity in forests globally, and reduce timber prices. North American consumers generally will gain from the potential changes, but producers could lose welfare. If dieback resulting from additional forest fires, increased pest infestation, or storm damage increases appreciably and has market effects, consumers will gain less and producers will lose more than if climate change simply increases the annual flow of timber products by raising forest productivity. Annual producers' surplus losses from climate change in the North American timber sector are estimated to range from $1.4 - $2.1 billion per year on average over the next century, with the higher number resulting from potential large-scale dieback. Within North America, existing studies suggest that producers in northern regions are less susceptible to climate change impacts than producers in southern regions because many climate and ecological models suggest that climates become dryer in the U.S. South. CR *VEMAP MEMB, 1995, GLOBAL BIOGEOCHEMICA, V9, P407 CLAUSSEN M, 1996, CLIM DYNAM, V12, P371 DALE VH, 2001, BIOSCIENCE, V51, P723 HAXELTINE A, 1996, GLOBAL BIOGEOCHEM CY, V10, P693 HAYNES R, 2003, PNWGTR560 USDA FOR S IRLAND LC, 2001, BIOSCIENCE, V51, P753 IVERSON LR, 2001, ECOSYSTEMS, V4, P186 JOYCE LA, 1995, J BIOGEOGR, V22, P703 JOYCE LJ, 2001, CLIMAGE CHANGE IMPAC, CH17 LEMMEN DS, 2004, CLIMATE CHANGE IMPAC MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 PEREZGARCIA J, 1997, EC CARBON SEQUESTRAT SCHLESINGER ME, 1997, PUBLICATION CLIMATE SHUGART H, 2003, FORESTS GLOBAL CLIMA SOHNGEN B, 1998, AM ECON REV, V88, P689 SOHNGEN B, 2001, GLOBAL WARMING AM EC, CH4 SOHNGEN B, 2001, J AGR RESOUR ECON, V26, P326 NR 17 TC 3 J9 FOREST CHRON BP 669 EP 674 PY 2005 PD SEP-OCT VL 81 IS 5 GA 979VW UT ISI:000232974100026 ER PT J AU Clark, WC Dickson, NM TI Sustainability science: The emerging research program SO PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA LA English DT Editorial Material C1 Harvard Univ, John F Kennedy Sch Govt, Cambridge, MA 02138 USA. 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Univ Florida, Sch Forest Resources & Conservat, Ctr Subtrop Agroforestry, Gainesville, FL 32611 USA. Univ Quintana Roo, Div Hemanidades & Estudios Int, Quintana Roo 77000, Mexico. Wildlands League, Toronto, ON M5V 3A8, Canada. RP Bray, DB, Florida Int Univ, Dept Environm Studies, Miami, FL 33199 USA. AB Research on the dynamics of tropical forest land use and cover change (LUCC) has focused on the three scenarios: (1) deforestation/degradation; (2) settled, degraded areas in recovery, and (3) sparsely settled, expansive, intact forest. Through examination of a central Quintana Roo, Mexico case study we propose a fourth scenario of a 'sustainable landscape': an inhabited, productively used, forested landscape that nonetheless shows little change or net gains in forest cover over the last 25 years. We use Landsat images to demonstrate a low incidence of net deforestation, 0.01% for the 1984-2000 period, the lowest recorded deforestation rate for southeastern Mexico. Institutional innovations such as an agrarian reform process that established large common property forests for non-timber forest product extraction, and later innovations such as sustainable forest management institutions have driven the outcome of low net deforestation, added to multiple organizational processes that promote sustainable land use. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 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Univ Otago, Wellington Sch Med, Wellington, New Zealand. Fiji Sch Med, Sch Publ Hlth & Primary Care, Suva, Fiji. WHO, Dept Hlth Sustainable Dev, CH-1211 Geneva, Switzerland. RP Woodward, A, Wellington Sch Med, Dept Publ Hlth, Sch Med, POB 7343, Wellington S, New Zealand. AB The biological and physical environment of the planet is changing at an unprecedented rate as a result of human activity, and these changes may have an enormous impact on human health. One of the goals of human development is to protect health in the face of rapid environmental change, but we often fail to do this. The aim in th is paper is to distinguish between socioeconomic aspects of development that a re likely to be protective and those that are likely to increase vulnerability (the capacity for loss resulting from environmental change). Examples include climate change in the Pacific. We conclude that protecting human health in a changing world requires us to take steps to minimize harmful change wherever possible, and at the same time to be prepared for surprises. The goals of mitigation (reducing or preventing change) and adaptation (response to change) are not mutually exclusive. in fact, steps to make populations more resilient in the face of change are often similar to those that are needed to lighten the load on the environment. We need social policies that convert economic growth into human development. Wider application of sustainable development concepts is part of the solution. In particular, there is a need to promote health as an essential asset of poor and vulnerable populations. it is their key to productivity and to surviving shocks; it is also the key to achieving broader development goals such as universal education. For these reasons it is in the interests of all sectors - economic, social and environmental - to play their particular roles in protecting and improving health. CR *ESCAP, 1997, ESCAP POP DAT SHEET *INT FED RED CROSS, 1996, WORLD DIS REP 1996 *INT FED RED CROSS, 1999, WORLD DIS REP *STAT NZ, 1999, INC *UN DEV PROGR, 1999, HUM DEV REP 1999 *US BUR STAT, 1999, FIJ CENS POP HOUS *WHO, 1997, WHO REG PUBL E, V72 *WORLD BANK, 1999, WORLD DEV REP 1999 2 *WORLD COMM ENV DE, 1987, OUR COMM FUT DANIELS N, 1999, DAEDALUS, V128, P215 DENNIS R, 2000, RECENT OUTBREAK FIRE DOWNING TE, 1999, DROUGHT HALES S, 1999, ENVIRON HEALTH PERSP, V107, P99 HALES S, 1999, LANCET, V354, P2047 HEARNDEN M, 1999, NZ PUBLIC HLTH REPOR, V6, P25 KALKSTEIN LS, 1997, ENVIRON HEALTH PERSP, V105, P84 KAPLAN G, 1996, BRIT MED J, V312, P1004 KAWACHI I, 1999, HEALTH SERV RES 2, V34, P215 LEAKEY R, 1996, 6 EXTINCTION BIODIVE MCMICHAEL AJ, 1993, PLANETARY OVERLOAD G MUSTARD JF, 1996, HLTH SOCIAL ORG, P303 NIGG JM, 1995, WELLINGTON QUAKE CHA, P81 NIMURA N, 1999, CLIM RES, V12, P137 OKE TR, 1987, BOUNDARY LAYER CLIMA OLSTHOORN AA, 1999, CLIMATE CHANGE RISK, P221 PELLING M, 1998, J INT DEV, V10, P469 PELLING M, 1999, GEOFORUM, V30, P249 SCHWEITHELM J, 1998, OVERVIEW INDONESIAS SEN AK, 1981, POVERTY FAMINES ESSA, V1, P1 SEN AK, 2000, FAR E EC REV 0127 WATSON RT, 1998, REGIONAL IMPACTS CLI, V1, P1 WATSON RT, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, V1, P1 WESLEYSMITH T, 1992, CONTEMP PACIFIC, V4, P245 WOODS R, 1984, URBAN DIS MORTALITY, P19 WOODWARD A, IN PRESS J EPIDEMIOL WOODWARD A, 1998, CLIMATE RES, V11, P31 NR 36 TC 6 J9 BULL WHO BP 1148 EP 1155 PY 2000 VL 78 IS 9 GA 353FJ UT ISI:000089263900009 ER PT J AU Belliveau, S Smit, B Bradshaw, B TI Multiple exposures and dynamic vulnerability: Evidence from the grape industry in the Okanagan Valley, Canada SO GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS LA English DT Review C1 Univ Guelph, Dept Geog, Guelph, ON N1G 2W1, Canada. RP Belliveau, S, Univ Guelph, Dept Geog, Guelph, ON N1G 2W1, Canada. AB This paper assesses the vulnerability of grape growers and winery operators in the Okanagan Valley, British Columbia to climate variability and change, in the context of other sources of risk. Through interviews and focus groups, producers identified the climatic and non-climatic risks relevant to them and the strategies employed to manage these risks. The results show that the presence of multiple exposures affects the way in which producers are vulnerable to climate change. Producers are vulnerable to conditions that not only affect crop yield, but also affect their ability to compete in or sell to the market. Their sensitivity to these conditions is influenced in part by institutional factors such as trade liberalization and a "markup-free delivery" policy. Producers' ability to adapt or cope with these risks varies depending on such factors as the availability of resources and technology, and access to government programmes. Producers will likely face challenges associated with the supply of water for irrigation due to a combination of climatic changes and changing demographics in the Okanagan Valley, which in turn affect their ability to adapt to climatic conditions. Finally, adaptations made by producers can change the nature of the operation and its vulnerability, demonstrating the dynamic nature of vulnerability. (C) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 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1998, CLIM RES, V10, P85 SCHIMMELPFENNIG.D, 1999, GLOBAL ENV CHANGE AG SCHREINER J, 1996, BRIT COLUMBIA WINE C SCHREINER J, 2004, WINERIES BRIT COLUMB SEN AK, 1981, POVERTY FAMINES ESSA, V1, P1 SHEPHERD P, 2004, EXPANDING DIALOGUE C SMIT B, 1996, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V33, P7 SMIT B, 2000, CLIMATE CHANGE COMMU SMIT B, 2002, MITIGATION ADAPTATIO, V7, P85 SMITHERS J, 1997, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V7, P129 SMITHERS J, 2004, CAN GEOGR-GEOGR CAN, V48, P191 STRACHAN G, 2005, COMMUNICATION JAN SUTHERLAND K, 2005, TIEMPO, V54, P11 SYGNA L, 2004, 200412 CICERO TATE AB, 2001, J WINE RES, V12, P95 TAYLOR B, 2004, EXPANDING DIALOGUE C, P47 TURNER BL, 2003, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V100, P8074 VASQUEZLEON M, 2003, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V13, P159 WAKE P, 2005, INDICATORS CLIMATE C WALL E, 2005, J SUSTAIN AGR, V27, P113 WALTHER GR, 2002, NATURE, V416, P389 WANDEL J, 2000, AGR ENV SUSTAINABILI WATTS MJ, 1993, PROG HUM GEOG, V17, P43 WHEATON EE, 1999, MITIGATION ADAPTATIO, V4, P215 WILBANKS TJ, 1999, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V43, P601 WILHELMI OV, 2002, NAT HAZARDS, V25, P37 WILSON K, 1996, THESIS U BRIT COLUMB WINKLER JA, 2002, J GREAT LAKES RES, V28, P608 WINTER M, 2000, J RURAL STUD, V16, P47 YOHE GW, 2002, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V12, P25 ZIERVOGEL G, 2003, AREA, V35, P403 NR 128 TC 0 J9 GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANGE BP 364 EP 378 PY 2006 PD OCT VL 16 IS 4 GA 105MG UT ISI:000242033600006 ER PT J AU Luo, QY Bellotti, W Williams, M Bryan, B TI Potential impact of climate change on wheat yield in South Australia SO AGRICULTURAL AND FOREST METEOROLOGY LA English DT Article C1 Univ Adelaide, Dept Geog & Environm Studies, Adelaide, SA 5005, Australia. Univ Adelaide, Sch Agr & Wine, Madison, WI 53711 USA. CSIRO, Policy & Econ Res Unit, Glen Osmond, SA 5064, Australia. RP Luo, QY, Univ Adelaide, Dept Geog & Environm Studies, Adelaide, SA 5005, Australia. AB Refined and improved climate change scenarios have been applied in this study to quantify the possible impacts of future climate change on South Australian wheat yield with probability attached. This study used the APSIM-Wheat module and information drawn from the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) and nine climate models for 2080. A wheat yield response surface has been constructed within 80 climate change scenarios. The most likely wheat yield changes have been defined under combinations of changes in regional rainfall, regional temperature and atmospheric CO2, concentration (CO2). Median grain yield is projected to decrease across all locations from 13.5 to 32% under the most likely climate change scenarios. This has economic and social implications from local to national levels. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. CR *CSIRO, 1996, CLIM CHANG SCEN AUST *CSIRO, 2001, CLIM CHANG PROJ AUST *IPCC, 2000, SPEC REP EM SCEN SUM MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 BRKLACICH M, 1995, ASA SPEC PUBL, P147 DELECOLLE R, 1995, ASA SPEC PUBL, V59, P241 HOWDEN SM, 1999, 9913 CSIRO, P24 HOWDEN SM, 1999, 9914 CSIRO AUSTR GRE, P51 HOWDEN SM, 1999, GLOBAL CHANGE IMPACT HOWDEN SM, 1999, MODSIM99 P INT C MOD JONES RN, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P403 KEATING BA, 2003, EUR J AGRON, V18, P267 LUO Q, 2003, THESIS U ADELAIDE LUO QY, 2003, AGR SYST, V77, P173 MEARNS LO, 1995, ASA SPEC PUBL, V59, P123 MENZHULIN GV, 1995, ASA SPEC PUBL, P275 REYENGA PJ, 1997, MODSIM 99 P INT C MO REYENGA PJ, 1999, ENVIRON MODELL SOFTW, V14, P297 SEINO H, 1995, ASA SPEC PUBL, P293 SMITH JB, 1996, VULNERABILITY ADAPTI, P366 TUBIELLO FN, 1995, AGR SYST, V49, P135 YUNUSA IAM, 2004, AUST J EXP AGR, V44, P787 NR 22 TC 0 J9 AGR FOREST METEOROL BP 273 EP 285 PY 2005 PD OCT 3 VL 132 IS 3-4 GA 984MP UT ISI:000233309300009 ER PT J AU Lowe, TD Lorenzoni, I TI Danger is all around: Eliciting expert perceptions for managing climate change through a mental models approach SO GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS LA English DT Article C1 Univ E Anglia, Sch Environm Sci, Zuckerman Inst Connect Environm Res, Tryndall Ctr Climate Change Res, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. Univ E Anglia, Sch Environm Sci, Zuckerman Inst Connect Environm Res, Ctr Environm Risk, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. RP Lowe, TD, Univ E Anglia, Sch Environm Sci, Zuckerman Inst Connect Environm Res, Tryndall Ctr Climate Change Res, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. AB It has long been acknowledged that understandings of risk are influenced by external or 'objective' assessments, and by internal or 'subjective' value judgements. In-depth research has been undertaken on how lay people perceive climate change and related risks, whereas work on expert opinions is more limited. This paper reports on 22 'expert' interpretations elicited through a mental models approach, and encapsulated in a 'meta'-influence diagram, denoting three conceptualisations of danger in relation to climate change: (i) human influence upon the climate system; (ii) impacts upon natural and human communities; and (iii) threat to the status quo, especially in the form of mitigation measures and related costs. These conceptualisations raise questions about how experts bring to bear their knowledge, values and understanding of climatic and social systems in articulating such discourses. This paper also discusses the implications of such diverse perspectives on managing climate change. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 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CR ANDERSON WA, 1966, THESIS OHIO STATE U BATES FL, 1963, 18 NAT AC SCI NAT RE JACKSON RH, 1974, NATURAL HAZARDS LOCA, P146 MARGOLIS ML, MASS EMERGENCIES MARGOLIS ML, 1973, MOVING FRONTIER SOCI OLIVERSMITH A, 1979, MASS EMERGENCIES SJOBERG G, 1962, MAN SOC DISASTER, P356 WADDELL E, 1975, HUM ECOL, V3, P249 WADDELL E, 1977, 76TH ANN M AM ANTHR WARD RM, 1974, NATURAL HAZARDS LOCA, P137 WHITE GF, 1975, ASSESSMENT RES NATUR, V1, P1 NR 11 TC 2 J9 DISASTERS BP 231 EP 235 PY 1980 VL 4 IS 2 GA KF455 UT ISI:A1980KF45500015 ER PT J AU Robards, M Alessa, L TI Timescapes of community resilience and vulnerability in the circumpolar north SO ARCTIC LA English DT Article C1 Univ Alaska, Anchorage, AK 99508 USA. RP Robards, M, Univ Alaska, 3211 Providence Dr, Anchorage, AK 99508 USA. AB Historical relationships between people and a changing Arctic environment (which constitute a social-ecological system, or SES) can offer insights for management that promote both social and ecological resilience. The continued existence of healthy renewable resources around communities is particularly important, as subsistence and commercial use of local resources are often the only practical avenues to healthy, long-term security for those communities. Our research draws on the position that SESs exist in an environment that is explicitly temporal: frequently cyclic, changing, contextual, and contingent. Therefore, the causes and effect of disturbances to SESs are rarely temporally linear; instead, they are characterized by a complex array of hysteretic effects and alternate (possibly repeating) states. The term 'timescapes' describes the time-space context element and its fundamental importance to sustainable practices. We investigate social-ecological timescapes of the circumpolar North in relation to four primary provisioning practices (hunting/gathering, pastoralism, agriculture, and market-based economy). Broadly, we identify distinct social-ecological states, interspersed with periods of change. For specific communities that have maintained their existence through a series of periods of profound change, we propose that elements of social and ecological resilience have been neither incrementally lost nor gained through time; rather, they have waxed and waned in accordance with specific, and sometimes repeating, conditions. To maintain their existence, we believe, communities have had to maintain their ability to recognize gradual or rapid changes in social, ecological, or economic conditions and reorganize themselves to adapt to those changes, rather than to any specific outcomes of a change. That is, they have adapted to a dynamic environment, not a preferred state. However, centralized Western management, despite fundamental flaws in accounting for local linkages between culture, economics, and the environment, is increasingly circumscribing local practices. We believe that the significant challenge of maintaining equity and resilience of remote communities, within and outside the Arctic, will necessitate incorporating localized cultural values and decision-making processes that fostered prior community existence with (data from) Western interdisciplinary research. CR *CAFF, 2001, ARCT FLOR FAUN INT B *WCED, 1987, OUR COMM FUT ADAM B, 1998, TIMESCAPES MODERNITY ANDERSEN T, 2002, ARCTIC, V55, P310 ANDERSON J, 2001, N REV, V23, P9 BALMFORD A, 2002, SCIENCE, V297, P950 BECKERMAN S, 1996, CURR ANTHROPOL, V37, P659 BECKLEY T, 2002, FOREST CHRON, V78, P626 BERARDI G, 1998, NAT RESOUR J, V38, P85 BERKES F, 2001, UNDERSTANDING TRANSF, P121 BOO E, 1990, ECOTOURISM POTENTIAL CARPENTER SR, 2001, ECOSYSTEMS, V4, P765 CARPENTER SR, 2001, BIOSCIENCE, V51, P451 CHANCE NA, 1990, INUPIAT ARCTIC ALASK COLLINGS P, 1997, CONTESTED ARCTIC IND, P13 COSTANZA R, 1996, ECOL APPL, V6, P978 DEUTSCH L, 2003, ECOL ECON, V44, P205 FOLKE C, 2002, RESILIENCE SUSTAINAB FREEMAN MMR, 2001, 401 FAO FISH, V401, P169 FREESE CH, 2000, CONSUMPTIVE WILD SPE GLANTZ MH, 1991, ENVIRONMENT, V33, P10 GLANTZ MH, 1991, ENVIRONMENT, V33, P27 GOLDMAN M, 2000, ANNU REV SOCIOL, V26, P563 GOTTLIEB R, 1993, FORCING SPRING TRANS, P235 HAILA Y, 1999, BIODIVERS CONSERV, V8, P165 HENSHAW A, 2003, ARCTIC, V56, P1 HOLLING CS, 1986, SUSTAINABLE DEV BIOS, V1, P1 HOLLING CS, 1996, CONSERV BIOL, V10, P328 HOLLING CS, 2001, ECOSYSTEMS, V4, P390 HUNTINGTON HP, 2000, ECOL APPL, V10, P1270 INGOLD T, 1980, HUNTERS PASTORALISTS JACKSON JBC, 2001, SCIENCE, V293, P629 JANSSEN MA, 2003, CURR ANTHROPOL, V44, P722 KELLY PM, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V47, P325 KLEIN DR, 1996, RANGIFER SPECIAL ISS, V9, P245 KRUPNIK I, 1993, ARCTIC ADAPTATIONS N KRUPNIK I, 2002, EARTH FASTER NOW IND LANGDON SJ, 1995, HUMAN ECOLOGY CLIMAT, P139 LEGAT A, 2001, ARCTIC FLORA FAUNA I, P69 LENT PC, 1999, MUSKOXEN THEIR HUNTE MACPHERSON AH, 1981, ARCTIC, V34, P103 MAGDANZ JS, 2002, 259 AL DEP FISH GAM MCBEATH GA, 2001, NO REV, V23, P164 MCBRIDE M, 2001, J ECON BEHAV ORGAN, V45, P251 MCGOODWIN JR, 1990, CRISIS WORLDS FISHER MCTIERNAN T, 1999, COMMUNITIES DEV SUST, P90 MELTOFTE H, 2001, ARCTIC FLORA FAUNA I, P88 NAKASHIMA D, 2000, UNESCO SOURCES, V125, P12 NEWTON ST, 2002, ARCTIC, V55, P281 NUTTALL M, 2000, ARCTIC ENV PEOPLE PO ODUM HT, 2001, PROSPEROUS WAY DOWN ORR DW, 2002, CONSERV BIOL, V16, P1457 PAINE R, 1994, HERDS TUNDRA PORTRAI SCHEFFER M, 2001, NATURE, V413, P591 SCHLOSSER P, 1998, OPPORTUNITIES ARCTIC SEIJO G, 2001, INT C SPAC TIM RETH SMIT B, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 SMITH EA, 2000, ANNU REV ANTHROPOL, V29, P493 STOFFLE RW, 2001, 401 FAO FISH, P219 TAINTER J, 1990, COLLAPSE COMPLEX SOC WACKERNAGEL M, 1997, ECOL ECON, V20, P3 WALKER BH, 2002, CONSERV ECOL, V6, P1 WEISS H, 2001, SCIENCE, V291, P609 YOUNG OR, 1992, ARCTIC POLITICS CONF ZIKER JP, 1999, ANTHR E EUROPE REV, V17, P59 NR 65 TC 3 J9 ARCTIC BP 415 EP 427 PY 2004 PD DEC VL 57 IS 4 GA 880NA UT ISI:000225795300009 ER PT J AU Niemeyer, S Petts, J Hobson, K TI Rapid climate change and society: Assessing responses and thresholds SO RISK ANALYSIS LA English DT Article C1 Australian Natl Univ, Res Sch Social Sci, Canberra, ACT 0200, Australia. Univ Birmingham, Sch Geog Earth & Environm Sci, Birmingham B15 2TT, W Midlands, England. Australian Natl Univ, Dept Human Geog, Res Sch Pacific & Asian Studies, Canberra, ACT 0200, Australia. RP Niemeyer, S, Australian Natl Univ, Res Sch Social Sci, Canberra, ACT 0200, Australia. AB Assessing the social risks associated with climate change requires an understanding of how humans will respond because it affects how well societies will adapt. In the case of rapid or dangerous climate change, of particular interest is the potential for these responses to cross thresholds beyond which they become maladaptive. To explore the possibility of such thresholds, a series of climate change scenarios were presented to U.K. participants whose subjective responses were recorded via interviews and surveyed using Q methodology. The results indicate an initially adaptive response to climate warming followed by a shift to maladaptation as the magnitude of change increases. Beyond this threshold, trust in collective action and institutions was diminished, negatively impacting adaptive capacity. Climate cooling invoked a qualitatively different response, although this may be a product of individuals being primed for warming because it has dominated public discourse. The climate change scenarios used in this research are severe by climatological standards. In reality, the observed responses might occur at a lower rate of change. Whatever the case, analysis of subjectivity has revealed potential for maladaptive human responses, constituting a dangerous or rapid climate threshold within the social sphere. 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URBAN AKTERNATIVES YEN BC, 1975, J ENVIRONMENTAL ENGI, V101, P535 YOUNG CP, 1973, P RES C RAINFALL RUN ZAGHLOUL NA, 1977, P I CIVIL ENG PT 2, V63, P925 NR 442 TC 1 J9 URBAN ECOL BP 1 EP 350 PY 1982 VL 6 IS 1-4 GA PG196 UT ISI:A1982PG19600001 ER PT J AU Scales, H Balmford, A Manica, A TI Impacts of the live reef fish trade on populations of coral reef fish off northern Borneo SO PROCEEDINGS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY B-BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES LA English DT Article C1 Univ Cambridge, Dept Zool, Cambridge CB2 3EJ, England. RP Manica, A, Univ Cambridge, Dept Zool, Downing St, Cambridge CB2 3EJ, England. AB The live reef fish trade ( LRFT) is one of the greatest but least-quantified sources of fishing pressure for several species of large coral reef fish across the Indo-Pacific. For the first time we quantify the localized impact of the LRFT. We collected data from three LRFT traders in northern Borneo, which yielded information on daily fishing effort and the species and mass of all fishes sold every day by individual fishers or vessels over 2, 3 and 8 years. Total monthly catch and relative abundance ( catch-per-unit-effort) declined significantly in several species, including the most valuable species the Napoleon wrasse ( Cheilinus undulatus, estimated changes of -98 and -78% over 8 years in catch and relative abundance, respectively) and lower-value bluelined groupers ( Plectropomus oligocanthus: -99 and -81%) and Epinephelus groupers ( -89 and -32%). These severe declines were rapid, species-specific and occurred in the first 2 - 4 years of the dataset and are, we believe, directly attributable to the LRFT. This has crucial implications for future data collection and monitoring if population collapses in other parts of the LRFT and similar wildlife trades are to be successfully detected. CR BENTLEY N, 1999, FISHING SOLUTIONS LI BERKES F, 2006, SCIENCE, V311, P1557 BRANDER K, 1981, NATURE, V290, P48 CHRISTENSEN V, 2003, FISH FISH, V4, P1 DEVINE JA, 2006, NATURE, V439, P29 DULVY NK, 2003, FISH FISH, V4, P25 HUGHES TP, 2003, SCIENCE, V301, P929 JACKSON JBC, 2001, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V98, P5411 JACKSON JBC, 2001, SCIENCE, V293, P629 JENNINGS S, 1999, CONSERV BIOL, V13, P1466 JOHANNES RE, 1995, ENV EC SOCIAL IMPLIC LEE C, 1998, NAGA ICLARM Q, V21, P38 MORRIS AV, 2000, BIODIVERS CONSERV, V9, P919 REYNOLDS JD, 2001, CONSERVATION EXPLOIT, P147 ROSENBERG AA, 2005, FRONT ECOL ENVIRON, V3, P84 SADOVY Y, 2003, FISH FISH, V4, P86 SADOVY Y, 2004, REV FISH BIOL FISHER, V13, P327 SADOVY Y, 2005, SPC LIVE REEF FISH T, V13, P42 SADOVY Y, 2005, SPC LIVE REEF FISH T, V14, P3 SADOVY YJ, 2003, STOCKS LAST LIVE FOO SCALES H, 2006, SCIENCE, V313, P612 TEGNER MJ, 1996, TRENDS ECOL EVOL, V11, P278 VENABLES WN, 2002, MODERN APPL STAT S WARRENRHODES K, 2003, AMBIO, V32, P481 WILKINSON C, 2000, STATUS CORAL REEFS W NR 25 TC 0 J9 PROC R SOC B BP 989 EP 994 PY 2007 PD APR 7 VL 274 IS 1612 GA 138PV UT ISI:000244375600012 ER PT J AU Bunde, A Havlin, S TI Scaling in the atmosphere: On global laws of persistence and tests of climate models SO FRACTALS-COMPLEX GEOMETRY PATTERNS AND SCALING IN NATURE AND SOCIETY LA English DT Article C1 Univ Giessen, Inst Theoret Phys, D-35392 Giessen, Germany. Bar Ilan Univ, Dept Phys, IL-52100 Ramat Gan, Israel. RP Bunde, A, Univ Giessen, Inst Theoret Phys, Heinrich Buff Ring 16, D-35392 Giessen, Germany. AB Characterizing the complex atmospheric variability at all pertinent temporal and spatial scales remains one of the most important challenges to scientific research today.(1-5) The main issues are to quantify, within reasonably narrow limits, the potential extent of global warming, and to downscale the global results in order to describe and quantify the regional implications of global change. CR *ECHAM3, 1996, ATM GEN CIRC MOD WATSON RT, 1998, REGIONAL IMPACTS CLI, V1, P1 ALPERT P, 1998, NATURE, V395, P367 ARNEODO A, 1995, PHYS REV LETT, V74, P3293 ARNEODO A, 1996, PHYSICA D, V96, P291 ARNEODO A, 2001, SCI DISASTERS BENGTSSON L, 1996, CLIM DYNAM, V12, P261 BLAIKIE PM, RISK NATURAL HAZARDS BRENNER S, 1996, J CLIMATE 2, V9, P3337 BULDYREV SV, 1993, PHYS REV LETT, V71, P1776 BULDYREV SV, 1995, PHYS REV E, V51, P5084 BUNDE A, FRACTALS SCI BUNDE A, 2000, PHYS REV LETT, V85, P3736 CHARNEY JG, 1979, J ATMOS SCI, V36, P1205 CORTI S, 1999, NATURE, V398, P799 FEDER J, 1989, FRACTALS GIORGI F, 1990, J CLIMATE, V3, P941 GORDON C, 2000, CLIM DYNAM, V16, P147 GORDON HB, 1997, MON WEATHER REV, V125, P875 GOVINDAN, IN PRESS PHYSICA A GRASSL H, 1999, INTERDISCIPL SCI REV, V24, P185 HASSELMANN K, 1997, CLIM DYNAM, V13, P601 HASSELMANN K, 1997, SCIENCE, V276, P914 HIRST AC, 1996, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V23, P3361 IVANOV PC, 1999, EUROPHYS LETT, V48, P4 KANTELHARDT JW, 2001, IN PRESS PHYSICA A KOSCIELNYBUNDE E, 1996, PHYSICA A, V231, P393 KOSCIELNYBUNDE E, 1998, PHILOS MAG B, V77, P1331 KOSCIELNYBUNDE E, 1998, PHYS REV LETT, V81, P729 LATIF M, 1994, SCIENCE, V266, P634 LEGGETT J, 1992, CLIMATE CHANGE 1992 MANABE S, 1991, J CLIMATE, V4, P785 MANABE S, 1992, J CLIMATE, V5, P105 MOLINARI RL, 1997, J GEOPHYS RES-OCEANS, V102, P3267 OBERHUBER JM, 1997, 7 DKRZ PENG CK, 1992, NATURE, V356, P168 PHILANDER SG, 1990, INT GEOPHYSICS SERIE, V46 PRICE C, 1998, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V25, P3963 RODWELL MJ, 1999, NATURE, V398, P320 SCHELLNHUBER HJ, 1999, NATURE S, V402, C19 SHUKLA J, 1998, SCIENCE, V282, P728 SUTTON RT, 1997, NATURE, V388, P563 TAKLE ES, 1999, IN PRESS J GEOPHYS R VETTERLI M, 1995, WAVELETS SUBBANE COD VOSS R, 1999, 298 M PLANCK I MET NR 45 TC 0 J9 FRACTALS BP 205 EP 216 PY 2003 PD FEB VL 11 GA 663EE UT ISI:000181992600023 ER PT J AU Mimura, N TI Vulnerability of island countries in the South Pacific to sea level rise and climate change SO CLIMATE RESEARCH LA English DT Article C1 Ibaraki Univ, Ctr Water Environm Studies, Ibaraki, Osaka 3168511, Japan. RP Mimura, N, Ibaraki Univ, Ctr Water Environm Studies, Ibaraki, Osaka 3168511, Japan. AB An assessment of the vulnerability to sea level rise and climate change was performed for island countries in the South Pacific (Tonga, Fiji, Samoa, and Tuvalu) under the collaboration of Japanese experts and the South Pacific Regional Environment Programme. A combination of experience-based and scientific methods were developed to reveal the overall vulnerability of and possible impacts on the coastal zone sectors. The studies identified the common impacts on and vulnerability of these countries. Inundation and flooding are the common threats to these islands because, of their low-lying setting; the problem is exacerbated by the social trends of population growth and migration to main islands, in particular to the capital cities. Other threats include beach erosion, saltwater intrusion, and impacts on the infrastructure and coastal society. For the island countries, the response to sea level rise and climate change focuses on adaptation rather than on reduction of greenhouse gas emissions (that is, mitigation). Based on the results of the vulnerability assessment, the concept of and options for adaptation are also discussed. CR *IPCC CZMS, 1991, COMM METH ASS VULN S *IPCC WG3, 1990, CLIM CHANG IPCC RESP WATSON RT, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, V1, P1 FIFITA P, 1992, P IPCC CZMS WORKSH R, P119 KAY R, 1993, ASSESSMENT COASTAL V KAY RC, 1993, VULNERABILITY ASSESS, P213 MACIVER DC, 1998, ADAPTATION CLIMATE V MIMURA N, 1997, J COASTAL RES, V24, P117 MIMURA N, 1998, J COASTAL RES, V14, P37 NUNN PD, 1993, ASSESSMENT COASTAL V NUNN PD, 1994, ASSESSMENT COASTAL V NUNN PD, 1996, COASTAL VULNERABILIT NUNN PD, 1997, J COASTAL RES, V24, P133 OHNO E, 1996, P 5 WORLD C REG SCI SEM G, 1996, COASTAL VULNERABILIT YAMADA K, 1995, J GLOBAL ENV ENG, V1, P101 NR 16 TC 0 J9 CLIMATE RES BP 137 EP 143 PY 1999 PD AUG 27 VL 12 IS 2-3 GA V3096 UT ISI:000171723000011 ER PT J AU Lloret, J Marin, A Marin-Guirao, L Carreno, MF TI An alternative approach for managing scuba diving in small marine protected areas SO AQUATIC CONSERVATION-MARINE AND FRESHWATER ECOSYSTEMS LA English DT Article C1 Univ Murcia, Dept Ecol & Hidrol, E-30100 Murcia, Spain. RP Lloret, J, Univ Murcia, Dept Ecol & Hidrol, E-30100 Murcia, Spain. AB 1. As the interest of divers in exploring marine protected areas grows, so does their impact on sensitive marine organisms and communities. This situation has led managers to adopt a variety of measures to manage scuba diving in marine reserves. However, if marine areas need to be managed and protected from the adverse effects of human activities, then the characterization of marine habitats and the communities they contain, along with the potential effects of scuba diving, will need to be evaluated on scientific lines. 2. To this end, the use of benthic mapping, together with an evaluation of community vulnerability, constitutes a complementary tool for managing scuba diving, as is demonstrated in the present study. 3. The identification and evaluation of the different communities observed in Cabo de Palos-Islas Hormigas Marine Reserve enables managers to propose different measures for controlling potential diver impact and also for evaluating the effects of these measures, thus reducing the degradation of the benthic organisms and communities, benefiting the local tourism industry and allowing a more sustainable use of the marine reserve resources. Copyright (c) 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. CR BARKER NHL, 2004, BIOL CONSERV, V120, P481 BENEDETTICECCHI L, 2003, MAR ENVIRON RES, V55, P429 BROWN K, 2001, ECOL ECON, V37, P417 CALVINCALVO JC, 1999, LITORAL SUMERGIDO RE COMA R, 1999, 1 JORNADAS INT RESER, P54 DAVIS D, 1995, OCEAN COAST MANAGE, V26, P19 DRAPER D, 2003, BIOL CONSERV, V113, P337 FRANCOUR P, 2001, AQUAT CONSERV, V11, P155 GARRABOU J, 1998, CONSERV BIOL, V12, P302 HARRIOTT V, 1997, AMBIO, V26, P173 HAWKINS JP, 1999, CONSERV BIOL, V13, P888 JEGO P, 1992, MEDPAN NEWS, V3, P91 KELLY NM, 2001, AQUAT CONSERV, V11, P437 MARION JL, 1996, ECOL APPL, V6, P520 MUNDET L, 2001, TOURISM MANAGE, V22, P501 PLATHONG S, 2000, CONSERV BIOL, V14, P1821 PULFRICH A, 2003, AQUAT CONSERV, V13, P233 RIBERASIGUAN MA, 1992, 2 CONV INT I CI MAR, P152 RICHEZ G, 1992, MEDPAN NEWS, V3, P85 RIEGL B, 2000, AQUAT CONSERV, V10, P127 ROBERTS L, 1994, RECENT ADV MARINE SC, P695 ROFF JC, 2000, AQUAT CONSERV, V10, P209 ROFF JC, 2003, AQUAT CONSERV, V13, P77 ROS J, 2002, MONOGRAFIES, V34, P51 ROUPHAEL AB, 1997, BIOL CONSERV, V82, P329 ROUPHAEL AB, 2001, BIOL CONSERV, V100, P281 ROUPHAEL T, 1995, 4 CRC REEF RES CTR TRATALOS JA, 2001, BIOL CONSERV, V102, P67 URBANSKI JA, 2003, ESTUAR COAST SHELF S, V56, P99 ZACHARIAS MA, 2005, CONSERV BIOL, V19, P86 ZAKAI D, 2002, BIOL CONSERV, V105, P179 NR 31 TC 0 J9 AQUAT CONSERV BP 579 EP 591 PY 2006 PD SEP-OCT VL 16 IS 6 GA 097CB UT ISI:000241422800004 ER PT J AU Baalousha, H TI Vulnerability assessment for the Gaza Strip, palestine using DRASTIC SO ENVIRONMENTAL GEOLOGY LA English DT Article C1 Aachen Univ Technol RWTH, Inst Hydraul Engn & Water Resources Management, D-52056 Aachen, Germany. RP Baalousha, H, Aachen Univ Technol RWTH, Inst Hydraul Engn & Water Resources Management, Mies Rohe Str 1, D-52056 Aachen, Germany. AB The main usefulness of groundwater vulnerability assessment maps is their ability to be an effective preliminary tool for planning, policy, and operational levels of decision-making. DRASTIC is one such assessment method. The DRASTIC index is made up of a calculated sum of products rating and weights for seven hydrogeological parameters that contribute to aquifer vulnerability. With the help of GIS, and based on the available data, maps of DRASTIC parameters were prepared for the Gaza Strip area in a case study. Each map was given a proper rate and a special weight factor developed. The final vulnerability map was obtained as a summation of the seven maps after multiplying each one with the appropriate weight. The vulnerability map was checked against the actual pollution potential in the area and nitrate concentration. The obtained vulnerability map is strongly correlated to known pollution values in the area. CR *ARIJ, 1994, GAZ ENV PROF TECHN R *COMM GEOSC ENV RE, 2000, NAT ATT GROUNDW REM *EPA, 1996, DRINK WAT REG HLTH A *FAO UN NAT, 1995, NAT FARM DAT HDB OCC *GAO, 1992, GAOPEMD936 *MOPIC, 1996, 1 MOPIC *MOPIC, 1996, ATL MAPS GAZ STRIP *PCBS, 2000, PROJ MIDY POP PAL TE *PWA, 2001, HYDR DAT BOOK TECHN *US GEOL SURV, 1998, OV MIDDL E WAT RES W ALLER L, 1986, P NWWA API C PETR HY, P38 BAALOUSHA H, 2004, RISK ASSESSMENT UNCE FRITCH TG, 2000, ENVIRON MANAGE, V25, P337 IBE KM, 2001, ENVIRON MONIT ASSESS, V67, P323 LYNCH SD, 1997, S AFR J SCI, V93, P59 MELLOUL A, 1991, HYDROGEOLOGICAL ATLA PADAGETT D, 1994, ENV PROF, V16, P211 SHOMAR BH, 2005, ENVIRON RES, V98, P372 VRBA J, 1994, 16 INT CONTR HYDR NR 19 TC 0 J9 ENVIRON GEOL BP 405 EP 414 PY 2006 PD JUN VL 50 IS 3 GA 051OO UT ISI:000238170600011 ER PT J AU Kratovits, A Punning, JM TI Driving forces for the formation of environmental policy in the Baltic countries SO AMBIO LA English DT Article C1 Tallinn Pedag Univ, Chair Geoecol, Tallinn, Estonia. RP Kratovits, A, Toompulestee 24, EE-15172 Tallinn, Estonia. AB The article elaborates on the role of international environmental regimes and multilateral environmental agreements in the process of development of environmental policy in the 3 Baltic countries; Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania. Comparison of emission trends and changes in the state of the environment with reference to international environmental regimes allow one to conclude that there is no clear link between the official accession to environmental conventions and changes in environmental fields. The Baltic countries first joined international environmental regimes dealing with global or regional environmental security, while acceptance of the agreements and accession to regimes seen as more important from the point of view of solving their own environmental problems, took place later. Therefore, it can be concluded that the Baltic countries have seen the international legal instruments in their environmental policies as preventive, rather than curative instruments. Active participation in multilateral environmental agreements (MEAs) has, on the other hand, substantially contributed to the readiness of the Baltic countries to take the next step in their environmental policy-taking over the environmental policies (Acquis Communautaire) of the European Union. CR 1999, STATE WORLD *BALT ENV FOR, 1998, BALT STAT ENV REP BA *MIN ENV ENV INF C, 1998, EST 2 NAT REP UN FRA *MIN ENV PROT LITH, 1996, LITH ENV STRAT *MIN ENV PROT LITH, 1996, LITH ENV STRAT, P36 *MIN ENV PROT REG, 1995, NAT ENV POL PLAN LAT *MIN ENV PROT REG, 1998, ENV PROT POL LATV *MIN ENV REP EST D, 2000, DAT EM SO2 NOX CO PR *MIN ENV, 1992, NAT REP EST UNCED 19 *NORD PRJ FUN, 1991, ENV SIT PROJ ID LATV *OECD, 1998, EV PROGR DEV IMPL NA *TALL RAAM, 1997, EST NAT ENV STRAT *UN, 1992, ENV CONV EL AUSP UN *UNEP, 1997, UNEP ENV LAW TRAIN M *UNEP, 1999, GLOB ENV OUTL 2000 BANKS A, 1991, LITHUANIAS ENV PROBL BIRNIE P, 1995, BASIC DOCUMENTS INT BREITMEIER H, 1997, GLOBAL GOVERNANCE DR, P87 DREIFELDS J, 1995, ENV RESOURCES CONSTR, P109 FITZMAURICE M, 1992, INT LEGAL PROBLEMS E HAAS P, 1995, REGIME THEORY INT RE HASENCLEVER A, 1997, THEORIES INT REGIMES HIDEN J, 1991, BALTIC NATIONS EUROP KRITKAUSKY R, 1995, ENV RESOURCES CONSTR, P125 PRYDE PR, 1991, ENV MANAGEMENT SOVIE PUNNING JM, 1997, AMBIO, V26, P493 RAUKAS A, 1999, PAST POLLTUTION SOVI SOOT S, 1995, ENV RESOURCES CONSTR, P95 YOUNG O, 1997, GLOBAL GOVERNANCE DR, P1 NR 29 TC 1 J9 AMBIO BP 443 EP 449 PY 2001 PD NOV VL 30 IS 7 GA 502BR UT ISI:000172724300007 ER PT J AU Chowdhury, RR TI Landscape change in the Calakmul Biosphere Reserve, Mexico: Modeling the driving forces of smallholder deforestation in land parcels SO APPLIED GEOGRAPHY LA English DT Review C1 Univ Miami, Dept Geog & Reg Studies, Coral Gables, FL 33124 USA. RP Chowdhury, RR, Univ Miami, Dept Geog & Reg Studies, 1000 Mem Dr, Coral Gables, FL 33124 USA. AB This article uses remote sensing and spatial modeling to quantify and analyze land change in Mexico's largest protected area, the Calakmul Biosphere Reserve. Change trajectories are identified within distinct property regimes and between the Reserve's core and buffer zones. A parcel-level spatial econometric model identifies the driving forces of land use change in two communities located along the eastern edge of the Reserve. the locus of increased deforestation in 1957-1996. The study assesses the role of biophysical variables, locational context, household socioeconomics and institutional factors in driving deforestation. The results address the effectiveness of reserves and other state policy instruments in protecting forests. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *CAMP STAT GOV, 1997, CAL VOLT SUR *FAO, 1999, STAT WORLDS FOR 1999 *INEGI, 1990, EST UN MEX RES GEN 1 *WORLD BANK, 1995, MEX RES CONS FOR SEC ABIZAID C, 2004, LAND USE POLICY, V21, P71 ACHARD F, 1998, IDENTIFICATION DEFOR ANGELSEN A, 1999, WORLD BANK RES OBSER, V14, P73 ANSELIN L, 1988, PAP REG SCI ASSOC, V65, P11 ANSELIN L, 2002, AGR ECON, V27, P247 BARROW CJ, 1991, LAND DEGRADATION DEV BASSETT TJ, 1988, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V78, P453 BATISSE M, 1997, ENVIRONMENT, V39, P6 BRANDON K, 1998, PARKS PERIL PEOPLE P, P1 BRAY DB, 2004, LAND USE POLICY, V21, P333 BROSIUS JP, 1998, SOC NATUR RESOUR, V11, P157 CHOMITZ KM, 1996, WORLD BANK ECON REV, V10, P487 CHOWDHURY RR, UNPUB DRIVING FORCES CHOWDHURY RR, UNPUB RECONCILING AG CHOWDHURY RR, 2003, THESIS CLARK U WORCE CHOWDHURY RR, 2004, INTEGRATED LAND CHAN, P105 CINCOTTA RP, 2000, NATURES PLACE HUMAN CROPPER M, 1999, LAND ECON, V75, P58 DAILY GC, 2000, SCIENCE, V289, P395 DEFRIES RS, 1999, GLOBAL BIOGEOCHEM CY, V13, P803 DEJONG W, 2001, FOREST ECOL MANAG, V150, P135 FOX J, 2003, PEOPLE ENV APPROACHE FULLER DO, UNPUB TROPICAL FORES GEISLER C, 2003, INT SOC SCI J, V175, P69 GEOGHEGAN J, 2001, AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON, V85, P25 GEOGHEGAN J, 2004, INTEGRATED LAND CHAN, P247 GREENBERG JA, 2005, REMOTE SENS ENVIRON, V96, P202 HACHILEKA E, 2003, S AFRICAN GEOGRAPHIC, V85, P50 HAENN N, 1999, HUM ECOL, V27, P477 HAYES DJ, 2002, LANDSCAPE ECOL, V17, P299 HOUGHTON RA, 2000, NATURE, V403, P301 KASPERSON JX, 1995, REGIONS RISK, V1, P1 KASS DCL, 1999, AGROFOREST SYST, V47, P13 KISS A, 1990, LIVING WILDLIFE WILD KLEPEIS P, 2003, ECON GEOGR, V79, P221 KLEPEIS P, 2004, INTEGRATED LAND CHAN, P145 KLOOSTER DJ, 1997, THESIS U CALIFORNIA KUMMER DM, 1992, PHOTOGRAMMETRIC ENG, V58, P1469 LAMBERT DP, 1996, HUM ECOL, V24, P427 LAMBIN EF, 2003, ANNU REV ENV RESOUR, V28, P205 LANEY RM, 2002, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V92, P702 LAWRENCE VB, 2002, BELL LABS TECH J, V6, P1 LIVERMAN DM, 1998, PEOPLE PIXELS LINKIN LUQUE SS, 2000, INT J REMOTE SENS, V21, P2589 MADDALA GS, 1983, LTD DEPENDENT QUALIT MBILE P, 2005, J ENVIRON MANAGE, V76, P1 MCNEELY JA, 2003, J SUSTAINABLE FOREST, V16, P1 MERTENS B, 2000, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V90, P467 MILLER K, 2001, DEFINING COMMON GROU MOONEY HA, 2000, INVASIVE SPECIES CHA MORAN E, 2000, HUMAN ADAPTABILITY I MUNROE DK, 2002, AGR ECON, V27, P355 MUNROE DK, 2004, PROF GEOGR, V56, P544 MYERS N, 1994, CAUSES TROPICAL DEFO, P27 NADKARNI NM, 2004, CONSERV BIOL, V18, P602 NELSON GC, 2001, LAND ECON, V77, P187 NEUMANN RP, 1997, DEV CHANGE, V28, P559 OSTROM E, 1990, GOVERNING COMMONS EV OVERMARS KP, 2003, ECOL MODEL, V164, P257 PAUDEL GS, 2004, APPL GEOGR, V24, P35 PEREZSALICRUP D, 2004, INTEGRATED LAND CHAN, P63 PERZ SG, 2002, WORLD DEV, V30, P1009 PFAFF ASP, 1999, J ENVIRON ECON MANAG, V37, P26 PIANKA ER, 1966, AM NAT, V100, P33 PRIMACK R, 1993, ESSENTIALS CONSERVAT READ L, 2003, ECOL APPL, V13, P85 READ L, 2003, ECOSYSTEMS, V6, P747 REDFORD KH, 1999, CONSERV BIOL, V13, P1246 ROBBINS P, 2004, POLITICAL ECOLOGY CR ROBINSON JG, 1993, CONSERV BIOL, V7, P20 SCHELHAS J, 2002, NATURAL RESOURCE FOR, V26, P140 SCHMIDTSOLTAU K, 2003, DEV CHANGE, V34, P525 SERNEELS S, 2001, INT J REMOTE SENS, V22, P3397 SHARMA UR, 1990, LANDSCAPE URBAN PLAN, V19, P133 SHUKLA J, 1990, SCIENCE, V247, P1322 SKOLE D, 1993, SCIENCE, V260, P1905 SMITH AP, 1997, CONSERV BIOL, V11, P498 SOUTHGATE D, 1993, AMBIO, V22, P163 STEFFEN W, 2003, GLOBAL CHANGE EARTH STONE M, 2004, ENVIRON MANAGE, V33, P12 SUNDBERG JR, 2002, CANADIAN J LATIN AM, V27, P73 TERBORGH J, 1999, REQUIEM NATURE TURNER BL, 1983, ONCE BENEATH FOREST TURNER BL, 1987, COMP FARMING SYSTEMS TURNER BL, 1996, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V93, P14984 TURNER BL, 2001, FOREST ECOL MANAG, V154, P343 TURNER BL, 2003, LOWLAND MAYA AREA 30 TURNER BL, 2004, INTEGRATED LAND CHAN VANCE C, 2004, INTEGRATED LAND CHAN, P221 VITOUSEK PM, 1997, SCIENCE, V277, P494 WALKER R, 2004, INT REGIONAL SCI REV, V27, P247 WELLS M, 2004, AMBIO, V33, P513 WELLS MP, 1992, PEOPLE PARKS LINKING WHITMORE T, 2001, CULTIVATED LANDSCAPE WILSON EO, 1988, BIODIVERSITY ZIMMERER KS, 2003, POLITICAL ECOLOGY IN ZIMMERER KS, 2004, AMBIO, V33, P520 NR 101 TC 0 J9 APPL GEOGR BP 129 EP 152 PY 2006 PD APR VL 26 IS 2 GA 065BQ UT ISI:000239134800004 ER PT J AU KHAN, MM MOCK, NB JEANNODA, V BAKER, SK TI IS MADAGASCAR BECOMING INCREASINGLY VULNERABLE TO FOOD CRISES SO ECOLOGY OF FOOD AND NUTRITION LA English DT Article C1 FOOD & NUTR SURVEILLANCE PROGRAM,PNSAN,MALAGASY REPUBL. TULANE UNIV,DEPT HLTH SYST MANAGEMENT,NEW ORLEANS,LA 70112. TULANE UNIV,INT HLTH ACAD PROGRAM,NEW ORLEANS,LA 70112. AB The physical need or status-quo approaches have not provided the appropriate conceptual framework for guiding food aid policies. As a response to this, models based on household or individual behavior are being articulated to explain food vulnerability. However, due to the complexity of these models and their data requirements, they have yet to become operational for the determination of food needs. This paper proposes a simple alternative approach for estimating food needs by implicitly taking into account the income distribution patterns, levels of poverty and market structure in a society. This new method, termed the ''social need'' approach, is illustrated using a case study from Madagascar. During the last decade domestic availability of major nutrients in the country remained above the total per capita caloric need (physical requirements) of the population. Nevertheless, the country experienced a major food crisis in 1982 and 1983. Because of relatively stable economic, social and political inequality in a country over the medium term, the 1982-83 food availability per Adult Equivalent Unit (AEU) can be used as the level of social need for Madagascar to prevent food-shortage-triggered social disruptions. This social need definition suggests exponentially increasing risk of food shortages in the country beginning in the early 1980s. The probability of food shortages in Madagascar was less than 10%, on average, between 1975-1985; however, it is projected to surpass 65% between 1990 and the year 2000. These findings demonstrate the need for urgent adoption of policies to influence agricultural development, socioeconomic inequalities and improved access to food for the vulnerable groups. CR 1985, ASPECTS POLITIQUE AU 1988, COUNTRY DEV STRATEGY 1988, CULTURES SUPERFICIES 1989, MANUAL FOOD NEEDS AS 1989, PRODUCTION AGRICOLE 1990, FOOD SECURTY NUTRITI ANDRIANARIVELO, 1985, POPULATION MADAGASCA BERG E, 1989, WORLD DEV, V17, P719 CLAUDIAN J, 1970, BESOINS THEORIQUES P COVELL M, 1987, MADAGASCAR POLITICS DOROSH PA, 1990, MACROECONOMIC ADJUST FRANCOIS P, 1963, BUDGETS ALIMENTATION HESELTINE N, 1971, MADAGASCAR LEBOURDIEC F, 1974, HOMMES PAYSAGES RIZ PRYOR FL, 1988, 37 WORLD BANK DISC P SEN AK, 1981, POVERTY FAMINES ESSA, V1, P1 NR 16 TC 1 J9 ECOL FOOD NUTR BP 181 EP 198 PY 1993 VL 29 IS 3 GA LX514 UT ISI:A1993LX51400002 ER PT J AU Ewers, RM Laurance, WF TI Scale-dependent patterns of deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon SO ENVIRONMENTAL CONSERVATION LA English DT Article C1 Smithsonian Trop Res Inst, Balboa, Ancon, Panama. Zool Soc London, Inst Zool, London NW1 4RY, England. Univ Cambridge, Dept Zool, Cambridge CB2 3EJ, England. RP Ewers, RM, Smithsonian Trop Res Inst, Apartado 0483-03092, Balboa, Ancon, Panama. AB Tropical forests of the Amazon Basin are being rapidly converted to agricultural land uses and fallow land, resulting in accelerating rates of forest loss in one of the world's most biodiverse ecoregions. This process has been extensively described and modelled, but as yet there has been no formal test of how the spatial patterns of deforested and fragmented areas change with the spatial scale of forest clearings. It was hypothesised that different land-use practices are driving small and large clearings, with small-scale cultivators often creating small, irregularly shaped clearings and large-scale ranchers and soy farmers creating larger, more regular-shaped clearings. To quantitatively test this hypothesis, Mandelbrot's theory of fractals was applied to deforested areas in the Brazilian Amazon to test for scale-invariance in deforestation patterns. The spatial pattern of deforestation differed between small and large clearings, with the former creating more complex landscapes and with a threshold occurring at c. 1200 ha in area. As a consequence, the sizes and shapes of forest clearings, and hence the relative vulnerability of the remaining forest to edge, area and isolation effects, may differ systematically between landscapes with different deforestation drivers. Further tests of this hypothesis are needed to assess its efficacy in other tropical landscapes and geographical locations. CR *I BRAS GEOGR EST, 1997, DIAGN AMB AM LEG *STATSOFT, 2001, STAT WIND VERS 6 0 BOLLIGER J, 2003, OIKOS, V100, P541 BOLLIGER J, 2006, ECOLOGICAL COMPLEXIT, V2, P131 BROWN JC, 2005, AMBIO, V34, P462 BROWN KS, 1987, OXFORD MONOGRAPHS BI, V3, P19 CAMARA G, 2005, METODOLOGIA CALCULO CHAUVEL A, 1987, EXPERIENTIA, V43, P234 CHOMENTOWSKI W, 1994, GIS WORLD, V7, P34 COCHRANE MA, 2002, J TROP ECOL 3, V18, P311 COSTANZA R, 1994, LANDSCAPE ECOL, V9, P47 DALE VH, 1994, CONSERV BIOL, V8, P1027 DALE VH, 1997, TROPICAL FOREST REMN, P400 DAMOTTA M, 2005, USING LEGAL MAP ALGE DIBARI JN, 2004, ECOL INDIC, V3, P275 ELVIDGE CD, 2001, INT J REMOTE SENS, V22, P2661 FAHRIG L, 2003, ANNU REV ECOL EVOL S, V34, P487 FEARNSIDE PM, 2001, ENVIRON CONSERV, V28, P23 FEARNSIDE PM, 2005, CONSERV BIOL, V19, P680 FERRARINI A, 2005, LANDSCAPE ECOL, V20, P799 GEIST HJ, 2001, LUCC REPORT SERIES, V4 GRIFFITH JA, 2000, LANDSCAPE URBAN PLAN, V52, P45 GROSSI L, 2004, ENVIRON ECOL STAT, V11, P165 HANSEN MC, 2000, INT J REMOTE SENS, V21, P1331 HELFAND SM, 2005, AGR EC, V31, P24 JOHNSON JB, 2004, TRENDS ECOL EVOL, V19, P101 JORGE LAB, 1997, FOREST ECOL MANAG, V98, P35 KRUMMEL JR, 1987, OIKOS, V48, P321 LAURANCE WF, 1998, FOREST ECOL MANAG, V110, P173 LAURANCE WF, 2001, SCIENCE, V291, P438 LAURANCE WF, 2002, J BIOGEOGR, V29, P737 LAURANCE WF, 2004, SCIENCE, V304, P1109 LOVEJOY S, 1982, SCIENCE, V216, P185 MANDELBROT BB, 1977, FRACTALS FORM CHANCE MANDELBROT BB, 1983, FRACTAL GEOMETRY NAT MARTIN Y, 2004, PROG PHYS GEOG, V28, P317 MERTENS B, 1997, APPL GEOGR, V17, P143 MERTENS B, 2002, AGR ECON, V27, P269 MOSER D, 2002, LANDSCAPE ECOL, V17, P657 MYERS D, 1999, HOUSING FACTS FINDIN, V1, P3 PATTON DR, 1975, WILDLIFE SOC B, V3, P171 RIITTERS KH, 1995, LANDSCAPE ECOL, V10, P23 RUDEL TK, 2005, TROPICAL FORESTS REG SAURA S, 2004, LANDSCAPE ECOL, V19, P647 SOARES B, 2004, GLOBAL CHANGE BIOL, V10, P745 SOARES BS, 2002, ECOL MODEL, V154, P217 SOARES BS, 2006, NATURE, V440, P520 SPROTT JC, 2002, PHYS LETT A, V297, P267 TURNER MG, 1989, LANDSCAPE ECOLOGY, V3, P153 TURNER MG, 1989, LANDSCAPE ECOLOGY, V3, P245 VALERIANO DM, 2004, ISPRS P B, V35 VELOSO HP, 1991, CLASSIFICAO VEGETACA WALKER R, 2004, ECOL APPL S, V14, S299 NR 53 TC 0 J9 ENVIRON CONSERV BP 203 EP 211 PY 2006 PD SEP VL 33 IS 3 GA 104MN UT ISI:000241962600005 ER PT J AU Klepeis, P Turner, BL TI Integrated land history and global change science: the example of the Southern Yucatan Peninsular Region project SO LAND USE POLICY LA English DT Article C1 Colgate Univ, Dept Geog, Hamilton, NY 13346 USA. Clark Univ, Grad Sch Geog, Worcester, MA 01610 USA. Clark Univ, George Perkins Marsh Inst, Worcester, MA 01610 USA. RP Klepeis, P, Colgate Univ, Dept Geog, 13 Oak Dr, Hamilton, NY 13346 USA. AB Land histories originate in multiple disciplines. The corpus of this research, however. does not link well to the science of global environmental change, despite explicit recognition by that science to incorporate land history. History acid global change science would both benefit by such linkages, which necessitates the development of "integrated land history." This interdisciplinary research subject is identified here, illustrated through the Southern Yucatan Peninsular Region project. This project addresses tropical deforestation and agricultural change in a frontier "hot spot" of biotic diversity. It seeks to inform environmental and global change science, including its human and modeling dimensions. Emphasis is placed on the mutual benefits for both land history and global change studies created by the integration in question. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. 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RP Toman, M, RAND Corp, Washington, DC USA. AB Economics has played an important role in assessing climate change impacts, and the effects of various individual and policy response strategies. Proponents of a key role for economics in analysis of climate change policies and goals argue that its capacity to incorporate and compare a variety of costs and benefits makes it uniquely useful for normative assessment. Critics of economic analysis of climate change have questioned not only its empirical capacities, but also its fundamental usefulness given some of the important but often implicit assumptions on which it is based. After reviewing this debate and its implications for public policy on climate change, the paper sketches a way in which more technical economic analysis and public dialogue might be combined. CR *UNFCCC, 1999, UNEPIUC9910 UNFCCC *UNFCCC, 1999, UNEPIUC992 UNFCCC AZAR C, 1996, ECOL ECON, V19, P169 BARRETT S, 2003, ENV STATECRAFT STRAT BLACKMAN A, 2003, THEORY PRACTICE COMM, P199 GARDINER SM, 2004, ETHICS, V114, P555 HOWARTH RB, 1996, CONTEMP ECON POLICY, V14, P100 HOWARTH RB, 2005, PERSPECTIVES CLIMATE, P99 JAMIESON D, 2005, PERSPECTIVES CLIMATE, P217 MANNE AS, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE INTEG MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 MENDELSOHN R, 1994, AM ECON REV, V84, P753 MENDELSOHN R, 1999, GREENING GLOBAL WARM METZ B, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 NORDHAUS WD, 1993, RESOUR ENERGY ECON, V15, P27 NORTON BG, 1992, UNITY ENV NORTON BG, 1997, LAND ECON, V73, P553 PORTNEY PR, 1999, DISCOUNTING INTEGENE ROSE A, 1993, RESOUR ENERGY ECON, V15, P117 ROUGHGARDEN T, 1999, ENERG POLICY, V27, P415 SCHELLING TC, 1997, FOREIGN AFF, V76, P8 SCHELLING TC, 2002, FOREIGN AFF, V81, P2 SPASH CL, 2005, GREENHOUSE EC VALUES TOMAN MA, 1994, LAND ECON, V70, P399 TOMAN MA, 1999, VALUATION ENV, P59 TOMAN MA, 2004, PAINTING WHITE HOUSE TOMAN MA, 2005, PERSPECTIVES CLIMATE, P75 WEITZMAN ML, 1998, J ENVIRON ECON MANAG, V36, P201 WEYANT J, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, P366 WIGLEY TML, 1996, NATURE, V379, P240 NR 30 TC 3 J9 ENVIRON VALUE BP 365 EP 379 PY 2006 PD AUG VL 15 IS 3 GA 089VG UT ISI:000240908900011 ER PT J AU BOWONDER, B TI INTEGRATING PERSPECTIVES IN ENVIRONMENTAL-MANAGEMENT SO ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article RP BOWONDER, B, ADM STAFF COLL INDIA,CTR ENERGY ENVIRONM & TECHNOL,HYDERABAD 500049,INDIA. CR BENNETT RJ, 1977, ENV SYSTEMS BOWONDER B, 1981, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V19, P99 BOWONDER B, 1983, ENVIRON MANAGE, V7, P211 BOWONDER B, 1983, MAZINGIRA, V7, P48 BOWONDER B, 1983, PROGR RESOURCE MANAG, V4, P57 BOWONDER B, 1984, ENV PROFESSIONAL, V6, P216 BOWONDER B, 1985, ENV PROFESSIONAL, V7, P108 BOWONDER B, 1986, INTEGRATING PERSPECT BURTON I, 1974, HUMAN ECOLOGY BURTON I, 1978, ENV HAZARD, V1, P1 CHURCHMAN CW, 1961, PREDATION OPTIMAL DE COLLINGRIDGE D, 1983, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V23, P161 CONACHER A, 1980, ENVIRON MANAGE, V4, P391 CROWE BL, 1977, MANAGING COMMONS, P53 DEBONO E, 1978, MECHANISM MIND ESTER P, 1982, NETHERLANDS J SOCIOL, V18, P57 EVANS JB, 1982, FUTURES, V14, P258 FISCHHOFF B, 1979, TECHNOLGOICAL FORECA, V13, P347 GAGNE RM, 1970, CONDITIONS LEARNING HAEFELE W, 1979, ENERGY, V4, P745 JOHNSON DM, 1979, SYSTEMATIC INTRO PSY KATES RW, 1976, AMBIO, V6, P247 KATES RW, 1978, RISK ASSESSMENT ENV LAWLESS EW, 1977, TECHNOLOGY SOCIAL SH LEVY M, 1980, RENEWABLE ENERGY PRO, P999 LINSTONE HA, 1981, 811 PORTL STAT U FUT LINSTONE HA, 1981, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V20, P275 LINSTONE HA, 1984, MULTIPLE PERSPECTIVE LOCKER A, 1977, BEHAV SCI, V22, P197 LOVINS A, 1981, ENERGY J, V2, P35 MARTINO JP, 1977, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V10, P381 MILLER A, 1982, ENVIRON MANAGE, V6, P535 MILLER A, 1982, ENVIRONMENTALIST, V2, P223 MILLER A, 1985, ENVIRON MANAGE, V9, P179 MILLER A, 1985, J ENVIRON MANAGE, V20, P231 MILLER S, 1985, J FUTURES MARKETS, V5, P21 MITROFF II, 1974, BEHAV SCI, V19, P383 ORIORDAN T, 1979, ENVIRONMENTALISM ORIORDAN T, 1981, J GEOGRAPHY HIGHER E, V5, P3 OTWAY H, 1976, FUTURES, V8, P122 PETAK WJ, 1980, ENVIRON MANAGE, V4, P287 POWELL A, 1982, BEHAV SCI, V27, P338 RAPOPORT A, 1977, HUMAN ASPECTS URBAN RAPOPORT A, 1978, URBAN ECOL, V3, P241 SASSEVILLE JL, 1983, ENVIRON MANAGE, V7, P263 SHAMA A, 1981, J ENV SYSTEMS, V10, P353 SHAMA A, 1982, LONG RANGE PLANNING, V15, P63 SHAMA A, 1983, ENERGY POLICY, V7, P148 SIMON HA, 1956, MODELS MAN SIMON HA, 1977, MODELS DISCOVERY SJOBERG L, 1979, POLICY SCI, V11, P39 SLOVIC P, 1979, ENVIRONMENT, V21, P14 STEINBRUNNER D, 1974, CYBERBETIC THEORY DE VONFOERSTER J, 1973, ENV DESIGN RES, V2, P35 WENK EE, 1979, MARGINS SURVIVAL WIENER A, 1979, MAGNIFICENT MYTH WILDAVSKY A, 1979, AM SCI, V67, P32 WOLMAN BB, 1974, HDB GENERAL PSYCHOL NR 58 TC 1 J9 ENVIRON MANAGE BP 305 EP 315 PY 1987 PD JUL VL 11 IS 3 GA J1987 UT ISI:A1987J198700003 ER PT J AU Ruth, M Lin, AC TI Regional energy demand and adaptations to climate change: Methodology and application to the state of Maryland, USA SO ENERGY POLICY LA English DT Article C1 Sch Publ Policy, Environm Policy Program, Hyattsville, MD 20782 USA. RP Ruth, M, Sch Publ Policy, Environm Policy Program, 3139 Van Munching Hall, Hyattsville, MD 20782 USA. AB This paper explores potential impacts of climate change on natural gas, electricity and heating oil use by the residential and commercial sectors in the state of Maryland, USA. Time series analysis is used to quantify historical temperature-energy demand relationships. A dynamic computer model uses those relationships to simulate future energy demand under a range of energy prices, temperatures and other drivers. The results indicate that climate exerts a comparably small signal on future energy demand, but that the combined climate and non-climate-induced changes in energy demand may pose significant challenges to policy and investment decisions in the state. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *EIA, EL POW MONTHL *EIA, NAT GAS MONTHL *EIA, PETR MARK MONTHL *EIA, 1995, DOEEIA0555952 *EIA, 1999, LOOK RES EN CONS 199 *EIA, 2001, ANN EN REV 2000 *EIA, 2001, STAT EN DAT REP 1999 *EPA, 1998, 236F980071 US PEA OF MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 *MAR DEP PLANN, 2004, HIST PROJ TOT POP MA *NCDC, 2004, ENV INF SER C, V23 *NOAA, 2003, SUNR SUNS CALC *US BUR EC AN, 2002, TOT FULL TIM PART TI *US CENS BUR, 2004, STAT POP EST *US GLOB CHANG RES, 2000, US NAT ASS POT IMP C AMATO A, 2005, IN PRESS CLIMATIC CH BADRI MA, 1992, ENERGY, V17, P725 BARRON E, 2002, POTENTIAL CONSEQUENC BELZER DB, 1996, ENERG SOURCE, V18, P177 BOUSTEAD I, 1994, CONSERV RECYCLING, V12, P121 CARTALIS C, 2001, ENERG CONVERS MANAGE, V42, P1647 DEDEAR R, 2001, INT J BIOMETEOROL, V45, P100 GRECO S, 67 IPCC WMO UNEP JAGER J, 1983, CLIMATE ENERGY SYSTE LAKSHMANAN TR, 1980, REGIONAL SCI URBAN E, V10, P371 LAM JC, 1998, ENERG CONVERS MANAGE, V39, P623 LEHMAN RL, 1994, J APPL METEOROL, V33, P96 LINDER KP, 1990, POTENTIAL EFFECTS GL MORRIS M, 1999, IMPACT TEMPERATURE T MORRISON W, 1998, IMPACTS CLIMATE CHAN MURPHY R, 2002, ENVIRON HIST, V8, P43 NALL D, 1979, ASHRAE T, V85, P1 PARDO A, 2002, ENERG ECON, V24, P55 PRESSMAN N, 1995, NO CITYSCAPE LINKING ROSENTHAL DH, 1995, ENERGY J, V16 ROSENZWEIG C, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE GLOBA RUTH M, 2001, WORLD RESOURCES REV, V13, P106 SAILOR DJ, 1997, ENERGY, V22, P987 SAILOR DJ, 1997, WORLD RESOURCE REV, V9, P301 SAILOR DJ, 1998, ENERGY, V23, P91 SAILOR DJ, 2001, ENERGY, V26, P645 SCOTT MJ, 1994, ENERG SOURCE, V16, P317 SEGAL M, 1992, J APPL METEOROL, V31, P1492 WARREN HE, 1981, J APPL METEOROL, V20, P1431 WILBANKS TJ, 1999, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V43, P601 YAN YY, 1998, ENERGY, V23, P17 NR 46 TC 0 J9 ENERG POLICY BP 2820 EP 2833 PY 2006 PD NOV VL 34 IS 17 GA 100CG UT ISI:000241644200018 ER PT J AU Ruitenbeek, HJ TI Distribution of ecological entitlements: Implications for economic security and population movement SO ECOLOGICAL ECONOMICS LA English DT Article AB The concept of economic and environmental security is explored in a broad sense as a series of necessary entitlements to forest and other resources. Traditional measures of inequality-such as the GINI coefficient or the Atkinson index of inequality which rely on measures of the distribution of formal cash income or wealth-are regarded as flawed to the extent that they do not adequately reflect the value and distribution of access to non-marketed goods and services. An ''ecologically-sensitive''' Atkinson or GINI index is proposed as a more relevant measure of inequality and of economic and environmental security. To improve security, policies must attempt to improve the value of these indices. An empirical example is provided based on household survey data for 357 households in 24 villages in a rainforest zone of Cameroon. Analyses of data relating to forest use, incomes, and demographics provides insights into the distribution of ecological entitlements across various income groups and into the impacts of these entitlements on economic and environmental security (through measures related to population migration). The empirical analysis demonstrates a number of important conclusions: (a) use of ecologically adjusted indices provides a more complete picture of inequality-inequality in the forest zone is less pervasive than traditional measures would have us believe; (b) traditional forest entitlements contribute positively to reducing inequality and improving security; and (c) income support programs targeted to conventional cash crops (cocoa and coffee) increase inequality and reduce security. The analyses also demonstrate that, when other economic factors have been taken into account, population movement can be a useful indicator of environmental security. An analysis of migration, demographic and income patterns suggests that low population movement in this zone can be construed as an indicator of higher environmental security. The analysis also provides direct evidence that a decline in ecological entitlements increases the probability of migration out of an area. 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Coastal erosion in the tropics SO SINGAPORE JOURNAL OF TROPICAL GEOGRAPHY LA English DT Review C1 Natl Univ Singapore, Dept Geog, Singapore 0511, Singapore. RP Wong, PP, Natl Univ Singapore, Dept Geog, Singapore 0511, Singapore. AB From a physical geography perspective, tropical coasts are characterised by coral reefs, mangroves and carbonate beaches on atolls and low reef islands. They face threats not only from sea level rise, but also from human activities that destroy mangroves, degrade coral reefs and accelerate beach erosion. Physical conditions in the tropics are suitable for the ideal tourist beach. Conceptually, the tourist coast can be considered as the integration of a physical system (the coast) and a human system (tourism). Studies have been carried out on various types of tourist coasts in Southeast Asia. For many atoll island states, sea level rise is more than just a threat to their tourism; it also determines their survival. In recent years, assessments of their vulnerability and adaptation have favoured a more integrative approach of physical and human sciences. Hopefully, this should result in a better analytical tropical geography that could play an important role in reducing coastal erosion and assist the small island states. 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AcciWeather Inc, State Coll, PA 16803 USA. RP Kolivras, KN, Virginia Polytech Inst & State Univ, Dept Geog, 115 Major Williams Hall, Blacksburg, VA 24061 USA. AB Flash floods are one of the most dangerous weather-related natural disasters in the world. These events develop less than six hours after a rainfall event and create hazardous situations for people and extensive damage to property. It is critical for flash flood conditions to be warned of in a timely manner to minimize impacts. There is currently a knowledge gap between flood experts and the general public about the level of perceived risk that the latter has toward the powerful flood waters and how events should be warned of, which affects the communication capabilities and efficiency of the warning process. Prior research has addressed risk perception of natural disasters, but there is little emphasis on flash floods within flood-prone regions of the United States. This research utilizes an online survey of 300 respondents to determine the current state of flash flood awareness and preparation in southwest Virginia. Analysis of trends involved the use of chi-squared tests (chi(2)) and simple frequency and percentage calculations. Results reveal that a knowledge base of flash floods does exist, but is not advanced enough for proper awareness. Young adults have a lower understanding and are not as concerned about flood impacts. Increased exposure and perceived risk play a key role in shaping the way a person approaches flash floods. People do monitor flood events, but they are unaware of essential guidance and communication mechanisms. Finally, results suggest that the current method of warning about flash floods is not provided at an appropriate level of detail for effective communication. CR *ESRI, 2006, DAT *FED EM MAN AG, 1993, FLOODS FLASH FLOODS *FED EM MAN AG, 2006, FLOOD STAT *NAT CLIM DAT CTR, 2006, CLIM EXTR WEATH EV *NAT WEATH SERV, 2005, NAT WEATH SERV GLOSS *SE REG CLIM CTR, HIST CLIM SUMM *US BUR CENS, 2006, AM FACTFINDER *US GEOL SURV, 2000, SIGN FLOODS US 20 CE *US GEOL SURV, 2005, PEAK STREAMFL NAT *US GEOL SURV, 2006, SURF WAT DAT VIRG *VIRG DEP CONS REC, 2005, VIRG MAJ WAT ALRECK PL, 2004, SURVEY RES HDB BARNETT J, 2001, RISK ANAL, V21, P171 BEYER JL, 1974, NATURAL HAZARDS LOCA, P265 CARSELL KM, 2004, NATURAL HAZARDS REV, V5, P131 CUTTER SL, 1996, PROG HUM GEOG, V20, P529 DAVID M, 2004, SOCIAL RES BASICS FARRE RS, 2002, PROBABILISTIC SAFETY, P133 FREWER L, 2004, TOXICOL LETT, V149, P391 GREGG CE, 2004, J VOLCANOL GEOTH RES, V130, P179 GRUNTFEST E, 2002, EVALUATION BOULDER C JOHNSTON D, 1998, AUSTR J DISASTER TRA KASPERSON RE, 1988, RISK ANAL, V8, P177 KRIPPENDORFF K, 2004, CONTENT ANAL INTRO I MILETI DS, 1999, DISASTERS DESIGN MITCHELL JK, 1989, GEOGRAPHY AM, P410 MONTZ BE, 2004, GEOGRAPHY AM DAWN 21, P481 NOETHER GE, 1991, INTRO STAT NONPARAME PAGANO M, 2000, PRINCIPLES BIOSTATIS PARFITT J, 1997, METHODS HUMAN GEOGRA, P76 SWEENEY TL, 1992, 44 NOAA NWS TAKAO K, 2004, J RISK RES, V12, P1 WATSON BM, 2005, VIRG FLOODS WHITE GF, 1964, CHOICE ADJUSTMENT FL WHITE GF, 1974, NATURAL HAZARDS WHITE GF, 1975, FLOOD HAZARD US RES WHITE GF, 1988, RISK ANAL, V8, P171 ZHAI G, 2002, COMPUT INTELL, P208 NR 38 TC 0 J9 RISK ANAL BP 155 EP 169 PY 2007 PD FEB VL 27 IS 1 GA 144LS UT ISI:000244798100015 ER PT J AU Devkota, SR TI Is strong sustainability operational? An example from Nepal SO SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT LA English DT Article C1 Dickinson Coll, Dept Econ, Carlisle, PA 17013 USA. RP Devkota, SR, Dickinson Coll, Dept Econ, Carlisle, PA 17013 USA. AB This paper explores the ways that local people in different parts of the globe are working at the local level toward sustainable development, whether knowingly or unknowingly. Community forest management at the local level in Nepal is a successful model of sustainability. It exemplifies the ideals of strong sustainability, which enhances natural, economic and social capitals concurrently. The objective of such groups is to try to avoid 'the tragedy of the commons', and to conserve forests and obtain forest products by sustainably managing local forests. In addition, people realize indirect benefits of forest protection such as further control of landslides, and improvement of local watershed and microclimate. Further, users' groups are not only taking the forest products, but also increasing the forest stock, which is an act of natural capital enhancement. In addition, local communities are not only satisfying their demand for natural resources, but are also determined to increase their socioecological resource potential for the future. Copyright (c) 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment. CR *MIN FOR SOIL CONS, 2002, NEP BIOD STRAT *MOPE UNEP ICIMOD, 2001, STAT ENV *NIDC, 1973, PROSP IND INV NEP *WORLD BANK, 1999, 445 WORLD BANK *WORLD BANK, 2001, 217 WORLD BANK ACHARYA KP, 2002, INT FOR REV, V4, P149 ADELMAN I, 2001, FRONTIERS DEV EC FUT, P103 AGARWAL B, 2001, WORLD DEV, V29, P1623 AYRES RU, 2001, ENVIRON ETHICS, V23, P155 BAJRACHARYA D, 1983, WORLD DEV, V11, P1057 BARTELMUS P, 2003, ECOL ECON, V46, P61 BECKERMAN W, 1994, ENVIRON VALUE, V3, P191 BECKERMAN W, 2001, JUSTICE POSTERITY EN BROMLEY DW, 1998, AGR ENV PERSPECTIVES BROMLEY DW, 2001, I POVERTY SUSTAINABI CHAKRABORTY RN, 2001, ECOL ECON, V36, P341 CHAUDHARY RP, 2000, BIODIVERS CONSERV, V9, P1235 COASE RH, 1960, J LAW ECON, V3, P1 COSTANZA R, 1992, CONSERV BIOL, V6, P37 DALY HE, 1995, ENVIRON VALUE, V4, P49 DEVKOTA SR, 1999, ECOL ECON, V28, P31 DEVKOTA SR, 2003, THESIS RENSSELAER PO DONGOL CM, 2002, MT RES DEV, V22, P70 EDMONDS EV, 2002, J DEV ECON, V68, P89 FEHR E, 2002, ECON J, V112, C1 FRANCESCHI D, 2003, INT J SUST DEV WORLD, V10, P211 GEORGESCUROEGEN N, 1986, E ECON J, V12, P3 GERLAGH R, 2002, J ENVIRON ECON MANAG, V44, P329 GETZNER M, 1999, ENV MANAGEMENT HLTH, V10, P170 GILMOUR DA, 1991, VILLAGERS FORESTS FO GOODLAND R, 1995, ANNU REV ECOL SYST, V26, P1 GOODLAND R, 1996, ECOL APPL, V6, P1002 GOWDY JM, 1999, LAND ECON, V75, P333 GOWDY JM, 2000, WILDLIFE SOC B, V28, P26 HANLEY N, 1999, ECOL ECON, V28, P55 HARDIN G, 1968, SCIENCE, V162, P1243 HARKONEN E, 2002, MOUNTAIN RES DEV, V22, P85 HEDIGER W, 1997, SUSTAIN DEV, V5, P101 HOLLING CS, 2002, PANARCHY UNDERSTANDI, P395 HUETING R, 1998, ECOL ECON, V27, P139 IVES JD, 1989, HIMALAYAN DILEMMA RE JACKSON WJ, 1995, P SEM COMM DEV CONS KARKI M, 1994, SUSTAINABLE MANAGEME KATES RW, 2001, SCIENCE, V292, P641 KLOOSTER DJ, 2000, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V10, P259 MEBRATU D, 1998, ENVIRON IMPACT ASSES, V18, P493 MUNASINGHE M, 2001, INT J GLOBAL ENV ISS, V1, P13 NEUMAYER E, 1999, WEAK VERSUS STRONG S NEUMAYER E, 2001, ECOL ECON, V39, P101 NORGAARD R, 1994, DEV BETRAYED END PRO OTSUKA K, 2001, COMMUNITIES MARKET E PEARCE DW, 2000, BLUEPRINT SUSTAINABL PEARSON SM, 1993, LANDSCAPE ECOL, V8, P3 PEZZEY J, 1992, ENVIRON VALUE, V1, P321 PEZZEY JC, 2002, 0203 RES FUT PRUGH T, 2000, LOCAL POLITICS GLOBA ROUTLEDGE BR, 2003, J MONETARY ECON, V50, P167 SAKURAI T, 2001, LAND TENURE NATURAL SERAFY SE, 1996, ENVIRON VALUE, V5, P75 SHRESTHA NR, 2001, POLITICAL EC LAND LA SOLOW RM, 1974, REV ECON STUD, V41, P29 SOLOW RM, 1986, SCAND J ECON, V88, P141 SOLOW RM, 1992, WOODS HOL OC I MA 19 SOUSSAN J, 1995, SOCIAL DYNAMICS DEFO STREETEN PP, 1995, THINKING DEV TACHIBANA T, 2001, LAND TENURE NATURAL TOMER JF, 2001, J SOCIOECONOMICS, V30, P281 VARUGHESE G, 2001, WORLD DEV, V29, P747 WELLS MP, 1998, INT J SOC ECON, V25, P226 NR 69 TC 0 J9 SUSTAIN DEV BP 297 EP 310 PY 2005 PD DEC VL 13 IS 5 GA 992MU UT ISI:000233888900003 ER PT J AU SCHWEITZER, J TI CONSERVING BIODIVERSITY IN DEVELOPING-COUNTRIES SO FISHERIES LA English DT Article RP SCHWEITZER, J, US AGCY INT DEV,320-21ST ST NW,ROOM 4942,WASHINGTON,DC 20523. AB Countries richest in biological diversity ironically are often the poorest economically. In these countries, in which humans struggle daily to meet urgent basic needs, efforts to protect the environment will succeed only if implemented in the context of promoting economic growth. Yet economic growth itself depends on the normal functioning of ecosystems and on a sustainable supply of natural resources. This mutual dependence of development and environmental protection must provide the conceptual basis for any successful effort to protect diversity in the third world. Accordingly, the U.S. government, through the Agency for International Development (USAID), supports an extensive program to protect the world's biological resources as an integral component of foreign assistance. A primary goal of USAID's biodiversity program is to maximize the potential for both economic and environmental security in developing countries. A greater reliance on market forces, the judicious application of economic incentives, and the use of effective economic instruments within the framework of constructive regulations provide the foundation for USAID's approach to conserving biological diversity. NR 0 TC 1 J9 FISHERIES BP 35 EP 38 PY 1992 PD MAY-JUN VL 17 IS 3 GA HY387 UT ISI:A1992HY38700007 ER PT J AU Cheung, WWL Pitcher, TJ Pauly, D TI A fuzzy logic expert system to estimate intrinsic extinction vulnerabilities of marine fishes to fishing SO BIOLOGICAL CONSERVATION LA English DT Article C1 Univ British Columbia, Fisheries Ctr, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z4, Canada. RP Cheung, WWL, Univ British Columbia, Fisheries Ctr, Lower Mall Res Stn,2259 Lower Mall, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z4, Canada. AB Fishing has become a major conservation threat to marine fishes. Effective conservation of threatened species requires timely identification of vulnerable species. However, evaluation of extinction risk using conventional methods is difficult for the majority of fish species because the population data normally required by such methods are unavailable. This paper presents a fuzzy expert system that integrates life history and ecological characteristics of marine fishes to estimate their intrinsic vulnerability to fishing. We extract heuristic rules (expressed in IF-THEN clauses) from published literature describing known relationships between biological characteristics and vulnerability. Input and output variables are defined by fuzzy sets which deal explicitly with the uncertainty associated with qualitative knowledge. Conclusions from different lines of evidence are combined through fuzzy inference and defuzzification processes. Our fuzzy system provides vulnerability estimates that correlate with observed declines more closely than previous methods, and has advantages in flexibility of input data requirements, in the explicit representation of uncertainty, and in the ease of incorporating new knowledge. This fuzzy expert system can be used as a decision support tool in fishery management and marine conservation planning. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *IUCN SPEC SURV CO, 2001, IUCN RED LIST CAT CR *SCRFA GLOB DAT, 2004, SPAWN AGGR DAT SOC C ADAMS PB, 1980, FISH B-NOAA, V78, P1 AGRESTI A, 1996, INTRO CATEGORICAL DA BAUM JK, 2004, ECOL LETT, V7, P135 BRANDER K, 1981, NATURE, V290, P48 BROWN JH, 1995, MACROECOLOGY BUCHANAN BG, 1984, RULE BASED EXPERT SY CARDILLO M, 2003, ANIM CONSERV 1, V6, P63 CASEY JM, 1998, SCIENCE, V281, P690 COX E, 1999, FUZZY SYSTEMS HDB PR DENNEY NH, 2002, P ROY SOC LOND B BIO, V269, P2229 DULVY NK, 2000, CONSERV BIOL, V14, P283 DULVY NK, 2002, CONSERV BIOL, V16, P440 DULVY NK, 2003, FISH FISH, V4, P25 DULVY NK, 2004, FISH FISH, V5, P255 FRISK MG, 2001, CAN J FISH AQUAT SCI, V58, P969 FROESE R, 2003, FISHBASE HAWKINS JP, 2000, ANIM CONSERV 1, V3, P81 HAYES E, 1997, TRAFFIC OCEANIA HILBORN R, 1992, QUANTITATIVE FISHERI HILBORN R, 2003, ANNU REV ENV RESOUR, V28, P359 HILTONTAYLOR C, 2000, 2000 IUCN RED LIST T HOENIG JM, 1990, ELASMOBRANCHS LIVING HOLDEN MJ, 1973, CONSEIL INT EXPLORAT, V164, P360 HOLDEN MJ, 1974, SEA FISHERIES RES, P117 HOLDEN MJ, 1977, FISH POPULATION DYNA, P187 HUDSON E, 1996, REP WORKSH COLL WORL JACKSON JBC, 2001, SCIENCE, V293, P629 JENNINGS S, 1996, AMBIO, V25, P44 JENNINGS S, 1998, P ROY SOC LOND B BIO, V265, P333 JENNINGS S, 1999, CONSERV BIOL, V13, P1466 JENNINGS S, 1999, J ANIM ECOL, V68, P617 JENNINGS S, 2001, MAR ECOL-PROG SER, V213, P127 JOHANNES RE, 1998, TRENDS ECOL EVOL, V13, P243 JOHANNES RE, 2000, FISH FISH, V1, P257 KAISER MJ, 2002, FISH FISH, V3, P114 KAISER MJ, 2003, RESPONSIBLE FISHERIE, P197 KANDEL A, 1995, TECHNOMETRICS, V37, P276 KASABOV NK, 1996, FDN NEURAL NETWORKS KIRKWOOD GP, 1994, LARGE SCALE ECOLOGY, P199 KOSKO B, 1992, P IEEE INT C FUZZ SY, P1153 LAVIOLETTE M, 1995, TECHNOMETRICS, V37, P249 MACKINSON S, 1997, FISH RES, V31, P11 MACKINSON S, 1998, REV FISH BIOL FISHER, V8, P481 MACKINSON S, 1999, CAN J FISH AQUAT SCI, V56, P686 MACKINSON S, 2000, ECOL MODEL, V126, P155 MATSUDA H, 1998, RES POPUL ECOL, V40, P271 MCDOWALL RM, 1992, AQUAT CONSERV, V2, P351 MORATO T, 2004, SEAMOUNTS BIODIVERSI, V12, P51 MUSICK JA, 1999, FISHERIES, V24, P6 MUSICK JA, 2000, FISHERIES, V25, P6 MYERS RA, 1999, CAN J FISH AQUAT SCI, V56, P2404 PAULY D, 1980, J CONS INT EXPLOR ME, V39, P175 PAULY D, 2002, NATURE, V418, P689 PITCHER TJ, 1995, SCI MAR, V59, P295 PITCHER TJ, 1997, P 2 WORLD FISH C, V2, P143 PITCHER TJ, 1998, REV FISH BIOL FISHER, V8, P367 PITCHER TJ, 2001, ECOL APPL, V11, P601 PITCHER TJ, 2001, ENCY OCEAN SCI, P975 PRATT HL, 1990, ELASMOBRANCHS LIVING, V90, P97 REGAN HM, 2000, BIOL CONSERV, V92, P101 REGAN HM, 2000, CONSERV BIOL, V14, P1197 REYNOLDS JD, 2001, CONSERVATION EXPLOIT, P147 ROBERTS CM, 1999, TRENDS ECOL EVOL, V14, P241 ROFF DA, 1984, CAN J FISH AQUAT SCI, V41, P989 ROWE S, 2003, TRENDS ECOL EVOL, V18, P567 RUSS GR, 1998, CORAL REEFS, V17, P399 SADOVY Y, IN PRESS CORAL REEF SADOVY Y, 2001, J FISH BIOL A, V59, P90 SADOVY Y, 2003, FISH FISH, V4, P86 SILVESTRE G, 1997, WORKSH SUST EXPL TRO, P8 SMITH SE, 1998, MAR FRESHWATER RES, V49, P663 SOKAL RR, 1995, BIOMETRY STEVENS JD, 1999, AM FISH S S, V23, P11 STEVENS JD, 2000, ICES J MAR SCI, V57, P476 TODD CR, 1998, CONSERV BIOL, V12, P966 WALKER PA, 1998, ICES J MAR SCI, V55, P392 WATLING L, 1998, CONSERV BIOL, V12, P1180 WOLFF WJ, 2000, BIOL CONSERV, V95, P209 ZADEH LA, 1965, INFORM CONTR, V8, P338 ZADEH LA, 1995, TECHNOMETRICS, V37, P271 NR 82 TC 6 J9 BIOL CONSERV BP 97 EP 111 PY 2005 PD JUL VL 124 IS 1 GA 916ZX UT ISI:000228426700009 ER PT J AU Seixas, C Troutt, E TI Socio-economic and ecological feedpacks in lagoon fisheries: Management principles for a co-evolutionary setting SO INTERCIENCIA LA English DT Article C1 Univ Manitoba, Dept Econ, Winnipeg, MB R3T 5V5, Canada. Univ Wisconsin, Madison, WI 53706 USA. RP Seixas, C, Univ Manitoba, Dept Econ, Winnipeg, MB R3T 5V5, Canada. AB This paper reviews the major socio-economic evolutionary events in a network of communities around a coastal lagoon. Concepts from complex systems analysis and ecological economics are used to analyze the impacts of the evolutionary events on both the lagoon's goods and services and stakeholders' well-being, bringing to light the management strengths and shortcomings of the fishery system, and suggesting an appropriate approach to managing such a system for ecosystem sustainability based on the Lisbon principles. CR ABDALLAH PR, 1998, THESIS U SAO PAULO P AGRAWAL A, 1997, DEV CHANGE, V28, P436 ANDREATTA ER, 1993, RELATORIO FINAL PROJ ANDREATTA ER, 1996, RELATORIO FINAL REPO ANTUNES P, 1999, ECOL ECON, V31, P215 BERKHOUT F, 2003, NEGOTIATING ENV CHAN, P1 COSTANZA R, 1993, BIOSCIENCE, V43, P545 COSTANZA R, 1997, INTRO ECOLOGICAL EC COSTANZA R, 1998, SCIENCE, V281, P198 COSTANZA R, 1999, ECOL ECON, V31, P171 DALY HE, 1977, STEADY STATE EC FOLKE C, 2002, ICSU SERIES SCI SUST, V3 GUNDERSON LH, 1995, BARRIERS BRIDGES REN, V1, P1 HOLLING CS, 1978, ADAPTIVE ENV ASSESSM HOLLING CS, 1986, SUSTAINABLE DEV BIOS, V1, P1 JASANOFF S, 1997, SCIENCE, V278, P2066 JOHNSON B, 2000, RETHINKING SUSTAINAB, P33 KATES RW, 2001, SCIENCE, V292, P641 KAUFFMAN S, 1993, ORIGINS ORDER LEVIN SA, 1999, FRAGILE DOMINION COM MCCAY BJ, 1998, HUM ORGAN, V57, P21 SEIXAS C, 2003, ECOL ECON, V46, P399 SEIXAS CS, 2002, THESIS U MANITOBA WI SEIXAS CS, 2004, CHALLENGING COASTS T, P180 SEIXAS CS, 2004, MILL EC ASS C AL EG WALTERS CJ, 1986, ADAPTIVE MANAGEMENT NR 26 TC 0 J9 INTERCIENCIA BP 362 EP + PY 2004 PD JUL VL 29 IS 7 GA 847KH UT ISI:000223390600004 ER PT J AU Musah, AF TI Privatization of security, arms proliferation and the process of state collapse in Africa SO DEVELOPMENT AND CHANGE LA English DT Article AB Most so-called 'collapsed states' in Africa are extreme cases of the complex and contradictory processes of state-making and unmaking which are unfolding in the continent. Beneath the veneer of sovereignty, virtually all these nations started their independent existence in the 1960s as shell states. Since then, they have either followed the path of self-destruction (state collapse) or have sought to fill the shell with institutional content (state-making). Private military intervention is one of the key external factors undermining the state-building project. Whether in its traditional 'soldier of fortune' form, or in its current corporate cloak, the privatization of security injects an inflammatory element into the governance process in weak states. Since independence, the populations of Africa have been subjected to structural violence that has highlighted force and de-emphasized human security as the cornerstone of governance. Civil society reactions to this have become more pronounced since the end of the Cold War, and have led to negative reconfiguration in weak states that are least equipped to manage the new challenges. The privatization of security impedes efforts to fashion accountable governance, and entrenches the culture of violence. Private military companies, their partner arms brokers and local warlords are the principal actors in illegitimate resource appropriation - a major cause of ongoing asymmetric warfare in Africa - and the proliferation of weapons an incendiary element in these wars. CR 1998, AFP REPORT 1999, HERALD GUARDIAN 0327 1999, REUTERS 0219 2000, MAIL GUARDIAN 0128 2000, PUNCH AUG 2000, SOIR 0830 2000, SUNDAY TIMES 1119 2001, MONITOR 0418 2001, MONITOR 0419 ABEL P, 2000, RUNNING GUNS GLOBAL, P81 AVEBURY, 2000, COMMUNICATION 1005 BANGURA U, 2000, STANDARD TIMES 1124 BROOKS D, 2001, AFRICA ANAL APR CLAPHAM C, 1999, PRIVATISATION SECURI, P23 FAHNBULLEH F, 1994, COMMUNICATION 0701 HARDING J, 1996, RADIO NATL 0804 HOWE H, 2000, CONFLICT TRENDS JUN HUTCHFUL E, 2000, MERCENARIES AFRICAN, P210 MINERS NJ, 1971, NIGERIAN ARMY 1956 1 MOCKLER A, 1970, MERCENARIES MUSAH A, 1999, OVER BARREL LIGHT WE, P109 MUSAH A, 2000, DEMOCRACY DEV, V2, P15 MUSAH AF, 2000, MERCENARIES AFRICAN, P76 NOSSAL KR, 1998, CIVIL WARS, V1, P31 OBRIEN KL, 2000, MERCENARIES AFRICAN, P43 OSAGHAE EE, 1998, CRIPPLED GIANT NIGER PECH K, 2000, MERCENARIES AFRICAN, P117 PELEMAN J, 2000, MERCENARIES AFRICAN, P155 PRINCELOO K, ASS PRESS 0228 PRKIC F, 1997, 25 ECPR WORKSH 3 DEM RENOU X, 2000, UNPUB MAJOR OBSTACLE SHAW TM, 2000, INT C SOLD BUS MIL E SHEARER D, 1998, ADELPHI PAPER, V316 TAMBARYOH D, 2002, OPINION CONCORD 0125 TILLY C, 1985, BRINGING STATE BACK, P169 ULBRICH J, 2001, ASS PRESS 0523 WOOD B, 1999, ARMS FIXERS CONTROLL NR 37 TC 1 J9 DEVELOP CHANGE BP 911 EP 933 PY 2002 PD NOV VL 33 IS 5 GA 626YL UT ISI:000179901300008 ER PT J AU Kundzewicz, ZW Schellnhuber, HJ TI Floods in the IPCC TAR perspective SO NATURAL HAZARDS LA English DT Article C1 Polish Acad Sci, Res Ctr Agr & Forest Environm, Poznan, Poland. Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res PIK, D-14412 Potsdam, Germany. RP Kundzewicz, ZW, Polish Acad Sci, Res Ctr Agr & Forest Environm, Poznan, Poland. AB Recent floods have become more abundant and more destructive than ever in many regions of the globe. Destructive floods observed in the 1990s all over the world have led to record-high material damage, with total losses exceeding one billion US dollars in each of two dozen events. The immediate question emerges as to the extent to which a sensible rise in flood hazard and vulnerability can be linked to climate variability and change. Links between climate change and floods have found extensive coverage in the Third Assessment Report ( TAR) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Since the material on floods is scattered over many places of two large volumes of the TAR, the present contribution - a guided tour to floods in the IPCC TAR - may help a reader notice the different angles from which floods were considered in the IPCC report. As the water-holding capacity of the atmosphere grows with temperature, the potential for intensive precipitation also increases. Higher and more intense precipitation has been already observed and this trend is expected to increase in the future, warmer world. This is a sufficient condition for flood hazard to increase. Yet there are also other, non-climatic, factors exacerbating flood hazard. According to the IPCC TAR, the analysis of extreme events in both observations and coupled models is underdeveloped. It is interesting that the perception of floods in different parts of the TAR is largely different. Large uncertainty is emphasized in the parts dealing with the science of climate change, but in the impact chapters, referring to sectors and regions, growth in flood risk is taken for granted. Floods have been identified on short lists of key regional concerns. CR *IFRCRCS, 1997, WORLD DIS REP 1997 *MUN RE, 1997, FLOOD INS ANDRADE RFS, 1998, PHYSICA A, V254, P257 ARNELL NW, 1999, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHA S, V9, S31 BERZ G, 2001, CLIMATE 21 CENTURY C, P392 CHIEW FHS, 1993, INT J CLIMATOL, V13, P643 HOUGHTON JT, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 KUNDZEWICZ ZW, 1999, HYDROLOG SCI J, V44, P417 KUNDZEWICZ ZW, 1999, HYDROLOG SCI J, V44, P855 KUNDZEWICZ ZW, 2000, WATER INT, V25, P66 KUNDZEWICZ ZW, 2000, WCDMP45 WORLD CLIM P KUNDZEWICZ ZW, 2001, HYDROLOG SCI J, V46, P883 KUNDZEWICZ ZW, 2002, WATER INT, V27, P3 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 MILLY PCD, 2002, NATURE, V415, P514 PALMER TN, 2002, NATURE, V415, P512 PARRY ML, 2000, ASSESSMENT POTENTIAL SCHNUR R, 2002, NATURE, V415, P483 NR 18 TC 0 J9 NATURAL HAZARDS BP 111 EP 128 PY 2004 PD JAN VL 31 IS 1 GA 804MV UT ISI:000220303700006 ER PT J AU Poumadere, M Mays, C Le Mer, S Blong, R TI The 2003 heat wave in France: Dangerous climate change here and now SO RISK ANALYSIS LA English DT Article C1 Inst Symlog, F-75005 Paris, France. Ecole Normale Super, Cachan, France. Macquarie Univ, Sydney, NSW 2109, Australia. RP Poumadere, M, Inst Symlog, 262 Rue St Jacques, F-75005 Paris, France. AB In an analysis of the French episode of heat wave in 2003, this article highlights how heat wave dangers result from the intricate association of natural and social factors. Unusually high temperatures, as well as socioeconomic vulnerability, along with social attenuation of hazards, in a general context where the anthropogenic contribution to climate change is becoming more plausible, led to an excess of 14,947 deaths in France, between August 4 and 18, 2003. The greatest increase in mortality was due to causes directly attributable to heat: dehydration, hyperthermia, heat stroke. In addition to age and gender, combinatorial factors included preexisting disease, medication, urban residence, isolation, poverty, and, probably, air pollution. Although diversely impacted or reported, many parts of Europe suffered human and other losses, such as farming and forestry through drought and fires. Summer 2003 was the hottest in Europe since 1500, very likely due in part to anthropogenic climate change. The French experience confirms research establishing that heat waves are a major mortal risk, number one among so-called natural hazards in postindustrial societies. Yet France had no policy in place, as if dangerous climate were restricted to a distant or uncertain future of climate change, or to preindustrial countries. We analyze the heat wave's profile as a strongly attenuated risk in the French context, as well as the causes and the effects of its sudden shift into amplification. Research and preparedness needs are highlighted. 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Projecting changes in cropland and grassland SO AGRICULTURE ECOSYSTEMS & ENVIRONMENT LA English DT Article C1 Catholic Univ Louvain, Dept Geog, Louvain, Belgium. Univ Wageningen & Res Ctr, Dept Plant Sci, Grp Plant Prod Syst, NL-6700 AK Wageningen, Netherlands. Univ Wageningen & Res Ctr, Dept Environm Sci, Grp Environm Syst Anal, NL-6700 HB Wageningen, Netherlands. Finnish Environm Inst, SYKE, FIN-00251 Helsinki, Finland. RP Rounsevell, MDA, Catholic Univ Louvain, Dept Geog, Pl Pasteur 3, Louvain, Belgium. AB This paper presents the development of quantitative, spatially explicit and alternative scenarios of future agricultural land use in Europe (the 15 European Union member states, Norway and Switzerland). The scenarios were constructed to support analyses of the vulnerability of ecosystem services, but the approach also provides an exploration of how agricultural land use might respond to a range of future environmental change drivers, including climate and socio-economic change. The baseline year was 2000 and the scenarios were constructed for 3 years (2020, 2050 and 2080) at a spatial resolution of 10 min latitude and longitude. Time slices were defined for the climate scenarios as the 10 years before 2020, 2050 and 2080. The scenarios were based on an interpretation of the four storylines of the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) using a simple supply/demand model of agricultural area quantities at the European scale and the disaggregation of these quantities using scenario-specific, spatial allocation rules. The scenarios demonstrate the importance of assumptions about technological development for future agricultural land use in Europe. If technology continues to progress at current rates then the area of agricultural land would need to decline substantially. Such declines will not occur if there is a correspondingly large increase in the demand for agricultural goods, or if political decisions are taken either to reduce crop productivity through policies that encourage extensification or to accept widespread overproduction. For the set of parameters assumed here, cropland and grassland areas (for the production of food and fibre) decline by as much as 50% of current areas for some scenarios. Such declines in production areas would result in large parts of Europe becoming surplus to the requirement of food and fibre production. Although it is difficult to anticipate how this land would be used in the future, it seems that continued urban expansion, recreational areas (such as for horse riding) and forest land use would all be likely to take up at least some of the surplus. Furthermore, whilst the substitution of food production by energy production was considered in these scenarios, surplus land would provide further opportunities for the cultivation of bioenergy crops. (c) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 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RP Brunnee, J, UNIV BRITISH COLUMBIA,FAC LAW,VANCOUVER,BC V5Z 1M9,CANADA. AB This article evaluates existing freshwater regimes and offers suggestions for the elaboration of future regimes that can promote environmental security. The authors argue that ecosystem-oriented principles are essential to shaping effective freshwater regimes as they evolve along a continuum from dialogue and sharing of information, to more defined frameworks of cooperation, to binding legal norms. They suggest that this process of regime formation and consolidation will further benefit from an emphasis on implementation and dispute avoidance, rather than on enforcement and dispute settlement. 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RP Fisher, CT, Kent State Univ, Dept Anthropol, 226 Lowry Hall, Kent, OH 44240 USA. AB Land degradation is frequently cited as a factor in the collapse of ancient complex societies. Implicit in these tales of ecological suicide is the assumption that land degradation is an ecological rather than a social problem. Here, I discuss how land degradation can be reconceptualized as a social-environmental dialectic. I then discuss the implications of this perspective using evidence from a recent landscape project exploring diachronic relationships between environmental and social transformations in the development of the Precolumbian Tarascan (Purepecha) empire, centered in the Lake Patzcuaro Basin, Mexico. Project findings challenge common conceptions regarding the impact of agriculture, urbanism, and state collapse on ancient landscapes, as well as the dating of the most serious episodes of degradation. 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Cornell Univ, Div Nutr Sci, Ithaca, NY 14853 USA. Acad Educ Dev, FANTA Project, Washington, DC 20009 USA. RP Webb, P, Tufts Univ, Gerald J & Dorothy R Friedman Sch Nutr Sci & Poli, Boston, MA 02111 USA. AB Food insecurity is a daily reality for hundreds of millions of people around the world. Although its most extreme manifestations are often obvious, many other households facing constraints in their access to food are less identifiable. Operational agencies lack a method for differentiating households at varying degrees of food insecurity in order to target and evaluate their interventions. This chapter provides an overview of a set of papers associated with a research initiative that seeks to identify more precise, yet simple, measures of household food insecurity. The overview highlights three main conceptual developments associated with practical approaches to measuring constraints in access to food: 1) a shift from using measures of food availability and utilization to measuring "inadequate access"; 2) a shift from a focus on objective to subjective measures; and 3) a growing emphasis on fundamental measurement as opposed to reliance on distal, proxy measures. Further research is needed regarding 1) how well measures of household food insecurity designed for chronically food-insecure contexts capture the processes leading to, and experience of, acute food insecurity, 2) the impact of short-term shocks, such as major floods or earthquake, on household behaviors that determine responses to food security questions, 3) better measurement of the interaction between severity and frequency of household food insecurity behaviors, and 4) the determination of whether an individual's response to survey questions can be representative of the food insecurity experiences of all members of the household. 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Univ Surrey, Guildford GU2 5XH, Surrey, England. RP Farrell, BH, Univ Calif Santa Cruz, Dept Environm Studies, Santa Cruz, CA 95064 USA. AB This article argues that in order to facilitate a more effective transition to sustainability, tourism researchers need to keep abreast of transformations occurring in related fields, especially ecosystem ecology, ecological economics, global change science, and complexity theory. New knowledge from these spheres relating to complex adaptive systems, a necessary retreat from reductionism, extensive integration of human and natural systems, new interpretations of sustainability, and the emergence of sustainability science is of great relevance to contemporary tourism study. The article provides an introduction to the potentially extensive application of this knowledge to tourism and concludes by suggesting a reconceptualization of the field of study to accommodate it. 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COMPLEXITY NR 127 TC 0 J9 ANN TOURISM RES BP 274 EP 295 PY 2004 PD APR VL 31 IS 2 GA 822OR UT ISI:000221550000002 ER PT J AU Smithers, J Smit, B TI Human adaptation to climatic variability and change SO GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS LA English DT Article C1 UNIV GUELPH,DEPT GEOG,GUELPH,ON N1G 2W1,CANADA. RP Smithers, J, UNIV GUELPH,ECOSYST HLTH PROGRAM,FAC ENVIRONM SCI,GUELPH,ON N1G 2W1,CANADA. AB Recent developments in both the policy arena and the climate impacts research community point to a growing interest in human adaptation to climatic variability and change. The importance of adaptation In the climate change question is affirmed in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Technical Guidelines for Assessing impacts and Adaptations and the IPCC's more recent Second Assessment Report. Yet, the nature and processes of human adaptation to climate are poorly understood and rarely investigated directly. Most often, human responses of one form or another are simply assumed in impacts research. Analyses that do address adaptation use a variety of interpretations and perspectives resulting in an incomplete, and at inconsistent, understanding of adaptation to environmental variations. This paper reviews and synthesizes perspectives from an eclectic body or scholarship to develop a framework for characterizing and understanding human adaptation to climatic variability and change. The framework recognizes the characteristics of climatic events, the ecological properties of systems which mediate effects, and the distinctions which are possible among different types of adaptation. A classification scheme is proposed for differentiating adaptation strategies. 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AB It would appear from the proportion of South African forests in protected areas that the habitats of vertebrate species are well protected. However, this simple figure is misleading. Firstly, the small total area of remaining forests (3000 km(2)) alters the vulnerability of the fauna. Secondly, a large proportion of the threatened fauna is restricted to forests and many are found in regions subject to heavy human exploitation. The apparent complacency regarding forest vertebrate conservation in South Africa requires re-evaluation in the light of this new information. The vulnerability of fauna must be carefully evaluated before management recommendations can be made, particularly for threatened species. 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Stockholm Environm Inst, Oxford OX2 7DL, England. Int Water Management Inst, Colombo, Sri Lanka. Univ E Anglia, Sch Environm Sci, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. Univ E Anglia, Tyndall Ctr Climate Change Res, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. RP Klein, RJT, Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res, POB 601203, D-14412 Potsdam, Germany. AB The potential for developing synergies between climate change mitigation and adaptation has become a recent focus of both climate research and policy. Presumably the interest in synergies springs from the appeal of creating win-win situations by implementing a single climate policy option. However, institutional complexity, insufficient opportunities and uncertainty surrounding their efficiency and effectiveness present major challenges to the widespread development of synergies. There are also increasing calls for research to define the optimal mix of mitigation and adaptation. These calls are based on the misguided assumption that there is one single optimal mix of adaptation and mitigation options for all possible scenarios of climate and socio-economic change, notwithstanding uncertainty and irrespective of the diversity of values and preferences in society. In the face of current uncertainty, research is needed to provide guidance on how to develop a socially and economically justifiable mix of mitigation, adaptation and development policy, as well as on which elements would be part of such a mix. Moreover, research is needed to establish the conditions under which the process of mainstrearning can be most effective. Rather than actually developing and implementing specific mitigation and adaptation options, the objective of climate policy should be to facilitate such development and implementation as part of sectoral policies. Finally, analysis needs to focus on the optimal use and expected effectiveness of financial instruments, taking into account the mutual effects between these instruments on the one hand, and national and international sectoral investments and official development assistance on the other. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 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RP Spittlehouse, DL, BC Minist Forest, Res Branch, POB 9519,Stn Prov Govt, Victoria, BC V8W 9C2, Canada. AB Future climate change will affect society's ability to use forest resources. We take account of climate in forest management and this will help us adapt to the effects of climate change on forests. However, society will have to adjust to how forests adapt by changing expectations for the use of forest resources because management can only influence the timing and direction of forest adaptation at selected locations. There will be benefits as well as loses and an important component of adaptation will be balancing values. Adaptation options to respond to impacts on the timber supply in Canada for the next 50 to 100 years are limited mainly to forest protection and wood utilisation because these forests are already in the ground. Adaptation through reforestation will focus on commercial tree species. It is important to start developing adaptation strategies now. These include assessing forest vulnerability to climate change, revising expectations of forest use, determining research and educational needs, development of forest policies to facilitate adaptation, and determining when to implement responses. Government agencies should take the lead in creating an environment to foster adaptation in forestry and in developing the necessary information required to respond. 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Harvard Univ, Sch Med, Ctr Hlth & Global Environm, Boston, MA USA. Resources Future Inc, Washington, DC USA. Nat Resources Def Council, Washington, DC USA. US Geol Survey, San Diego, CA USA. RP Levin, RB, Harvard Univ, Sch Publ Hlth, Environm Epidemiol Program, 665 Huntington Ave, Boston, MA 02115 USA. AB The access of almost all 270 million U.S. residents to reliable, safe drinking water distinguishes the United States in the twentieth century from that of the nineteenth century. The United States is a relatively water-abundant country with moderate population growth; nonetheless, current trends are sufficient to strain water resources over time, especially on a regional basis. We have examined the areas of public water infrastructure, global climate effects, waterborne disease (including emerging and resurging pathogens), land use, groundwater, surface water, and the U.S. regulatory history and its horizon. 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ER PT J AU Arnell, NW Tompkins, EL Adger, WN TI Eliciting information from experts on the likelihood of rapid climate change SO RISK ANALYSIS LA English DT Article C1 Univ Southampton, Sch Geog, Tyndall Ctr Climate Change Res, Southampton SO17 1BJ, Hants, England. Univ E Anglia, Sch Environm Sci, Tyndall Ctr Climate Change Res, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. RP Arnell, NW, Univ Southampton, Sch Geog, Tyndall Ctr Climate Change Res, Southampton SO17 1BJ, Hants, England. AB The threat of so-called rapid or abrupt climate change has generated considerable public interest because of its potentially significant impacts. The collapse of the North Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation or the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, for example, would have potentially catastrophic effects on temperatures and sea level, respectively. But how likely are such extreme climatic changes? Is it possible actually to estimate likelihoods? This article reviews the societal demand for the likelihoods of rapid or abrupt climate change, and different methods for estimating likelihoods: past experience, model simulation, or through the elicitation of expert judgments. The article describes a survey to estimate the likelihoods of two characterizations of rapid climate change, and explores the issues associated with such surveys and the value of information produced. The surveys were based on key scientists chosen for their expertise in the climate science of abrupt climate change. Most survey respondents ascribed low likelihoods to rapid climate change, due either to the collapse of the Thermohaline Circulation or increased positive feedbacks. In each case one assessment was an order of magnitude higher than the others. We explore a high rate of refusal to participate in this expert survey: many scientists prefer to rely on output from future climate model simulations. 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Texas A&M Univ, Dept Landscape Architecture & Urban Planning, Environm Planning & Sustainabil Res Unit, College Stn, TX 77843 USA. Texas A&M Univ, George Bush Sch Govt & Publ Serv, Inst Sci Technol & Publ Policy, College Stn, TX 77843 USA. RP Zahran, S, Colorado State Univ, Dept Sociol, B-258 Clark Bldg, Ft Collins, CO 80523 USA. AB Climate scientists note that the effects of climate change vary regionally. Citizen willingness to absorb the costs of adaptation and mitigation policies may correspond with these place-specific effects. Geographic information systems (GIS) analytic techniques are used to map and measure survey respondents' climate change risk at various levels of spatial resolution and precision. Spatial data are used to analyze multiple measures of climate change vulnerability along with demographic, attitudinal, and perception-based variables derived from a representative national survey of U. S. residents to predict variation in support for interventionist climate change policies. Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression results show that objective risk measures explain a modest amount of variation in our dependent variable. The effect of risk perception on climate policy support is far more robust. Of all variables examined, the extent to which citizens regard climate change as threatening to their material well-being drives support for costly climate change policies. 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CR *CAN ENV ATM ENV S, 1987, CHANG ATM C STAT *HUM DIM GLOB CHAN, 1987, PROSP *HUM DIM GLOB CHAN, 1988, PROSP *HUM DIM GLOB CHAN, 1989, IN PRESS TOK INT S H *INT GEOSPH BIOSPH, 1988, 4 REP *UN U, 1985, SCI PRACT COMPL *WORLD COMM ENV DE, 1987, OUR COMM FUT ABULABAN B, 1988, HUMAN SCI CONTRIBUTI ARTHUR WB, 1988, TECHNICAL CHANGE EC AYRES RU, 1988, ENV IMPLICATIONS THE BARKER E, 1947, SOCIAL CONTRACT BARNES B, 1974, SCI KNOWLEDGE SOCIOL BURTON I, 1987, ENVIRONMENT, V29 BURTON I, 1988, IFIAS RES SERIES, V4 CLARK N, 1987, LONGRUN EC DANZIN A, 1985, SCI PRAXIS COMPLEXIT GLEICK J, 1987, CHAOS MAKING NEW SCI KUHN TS, 1970, STRUCTURE SCI REVOLU MARLAND G, 1988, PROSPECT SOLVING CO2 PRIGOGINE I, 1980, BEING BECOMING PRIGOGINE I, 1984, ORDER OUT OF CHAOS ROLSTON H, 1988, ENV ETHICS SVEDIN U, 1988, SWEDISH PERSPECTIVES THOMAS D, 1979, NATURALISM SOCIAL SC TIMMERMAN P, 1981, ENV MONOGRAPH, V1, P1 TIMMERMAN P, 1986, SUSTAINABLE DEV BIOS TRENT J, 1984, GLOBAL CRISES AND SO WINCH P, 1958, IDEA SOCIAL SCI ITS NR 28 TC 2 J9 INT SOC SCI J BP 297 EP 313 PY 1989 PD AUG VL 41 IS 3 GA AR860 UT ISI:A1989AR86000002 ER PT J AU Steelman, TA Kunkel, GF TI Effective community responses to wildfire threats: Lessons from New Mexico SO SOCIETY & NATURAL RESOURCES LA English DT Article C1 N Carolina State Univ, Coll Nat Resources, Dept Forestry, Raleigh, NC 27695 USA. RP Steelman, TA, N Carolina State Univ, Coll Nat Resources, Dept Forestry, Campus Box 8008, Raleigh, NC 27695 USA. AB National policies to address the wildfire threat in the United States place emphasis on community responsiveness, but great uncertainty surrounds the scope and success of community response to wildfire threats and why some communities foster effective responses while others fail to do so. Two case studies of community responses to wildfire threats in New Mexico are explored. A decision process framework illustrates how an effective response can be defined. Findings indicate that an effective community response to wildfire means that a community works through all stages of the decision process with appropriate social and structural responses to its specific threat. 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Wageningen Univ, Disaster Res Ctr, NL-6700 EW Wageningen, Netherlands. RP Bankoff, G, Univ Auckland, Sch Asian Studies, Private Bag 92019, Auckland 1, New Zealand. AB Disasters seem destined to be major issues of academic enquiry in the new century if for no other reason than that they are inseparably linked to questions of environmental conservation, resource depletion and migration patterns in an increasingly globalised world. Unfortunately, inadequate attention has been directed at considering the historical roots of the discursive framework within which hazard is generally presented and how that might reflect particular cultural values to do with the way in which certain regions or zones of the world ave usually imagined This paper argues that tropicality, development and vulnerability form part of one and the same essentialising and generalising cultural discourse that denigrates large regions of world as disease-ridden, poverty-stricken and disaster-prone. 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RP Sturman, AP, Univ Canterbury, Dept Geog, Private Bag 4800, Christchurch 1, New Zealand. 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RP Haila, Y, Tampere Univ, Dept Reg Studies & Environm Policy, POB 607, FIN-33101 Tampere, Finland. AB I chart ways in which ecology could improve its performance in assessing the humanity-nature relationship. The life of humans, similar to all biological organisms, depends on utilization of their environment which is changed as a result. To evaluate the consequences, a broad range of issues needs to be addressed ranging from the historical dynamics of cultural development to specific idiosynchratic features of particular environmental issues. One should avoid nature-culture dualism both in theoretical thinking and practical research. A typical form of such dualism in ecologically informed environmentalism is an assumption that productivity of socioeconomic systems vs natural systems is a zero-sum game; this assumption is unfounded. Ecology should take the ecological conditions of human existence seriously and make judgements on the relationship of people with their natural environment in various historical situations in a contextually sensitive way. I end by listing several types of positive contribution that ecology could give to societal discussion on the human environmental predicament; the most important challenge is to point out new possibilities even in situations which seem hopeless. 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RP Luers, AL, Union Concerned Sci, 2397 Shattuck Ave,Ste 203, Berkeley, CA 94704 USA. AB This paper introduces an analytical framework for evaluating the vulnerability of people and places to environmental and social forces. The framework represents the relative vulnerability of a variable of concern (e.g. such as agricultural yield) to a set of disturbing forces (e.g. climate change, market fluctuations) by a position on a three-dimensional analytical surface, where vulnerability is defined as a function of sensitivity, exposure, and the state relative to a threshold of damage. The surface is presented as a tool to help identify relative vulnerability in order to prioritize actions and assess the vulnerability implications of management and policy decisions. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *FAO, 1997, FAOSTAT MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 ADGER WN, 1999, MITIG ADAPT STRAT GL, V4, P253 ADGER WN, 2001, LIVING ENV CHANGE SO BLAIKIE PM, 1994, RISK NATURAL HAZARDS, V1, P1 BOHLE HG, 2001, IHDP UPDATE, V2 BOHLE HG, 1994, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V4, P37 BRIGUGLIO L, 1995, WORLD DEV, V23, P1615 CARPENTER SR, 2001, ECOSYSTEMS, V4, P765 CARPENTER SR, 1999, ECOL APPL, V9, P751 CHAMBERS R, 1989, IDS B, V20, P1 CLARK WC, 2000, 200012 BCSIA HARV U CUTTER SL, 2000, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V90, P713 DOWNING TE, 1991, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V1, P365 DOWNING TE, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE VULNE FOLKE C, 2002, ICSU SERIES SUSTAINA KALY A, 2002, DEV B, V58 KASPERSON JX, 2003, HUMAN DIMENSIONS GLO KELLY PM, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V47, P325 LEICHENKO RM, 2002, MITIGATION ADAPTATIO, V7, P1 LOBELL DB, 2002, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V114, P31 LOBELL DB, 2003, AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON, V114, P31 LUERS AL, 2003, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V13, P255 MITCHELL JK, 1989, GEOGR REV, V79, P391 MOSS RH, 2002, UNPUB VULNERABILITY NAYLOR RL, 2001, 0101 CIMMYT OBRIEN KL, 2000, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V10, P221 PETERSON GD, 2002, CONSERVATION ECOLOGY, V6 POLSKY C, 2003, ASSESSIG VULNERABILI RIBOT JC, 1995, GEOJOURNAL, V35, P119 SCHEFFER M, 2001, NATURE, V413, P591 SCHIMMELPFENNIG D, 1999, GLOBAL ENV CHANGE AG SMITH B, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P223 STEPHEN L, 2001, DISASTERS, V25, P113 TURNER BL, 2003, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V100, P8074 TURNER BL, 2003, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V100, P8080 WATTS MJ, 1993, PROG HUM GEOG, V17, P43 NR 37 TC 4 J9 GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANGE BP 214 EP 223 PY 2005 PD OCT VL 15 IS 3 GA 960JC UT ISI:000231585500005 ER PT J AU Ali, A TI Vulnerability of Bangladesh to climate change and sea level rise through tropical cyclones and storm surges SO WATER AIR AND SOIL POLLUTION LA English DT Article RP Ali, A, SPARRSO,DHAKA,BANGLADESH. AB Bangladesh is frequently visited by natural disasters such as tropical cyclones, storm surges, floods, droughts, tornadoes and ''nonvesters.'' Of these, tropical cyclones originating in the Bay of Bengal and associated storm surges are the most disastrous. That are various reasons for the disastrous effects of cyclones and storm surges in Bangladesh. Superimposed on these disastrous effects, climate change and any consequent sea level rise are likely to add fuel to the lire Arise in temperature is likely to change cyclone activity: cyclone intensity, if not cyclone frequency, may increase. As a result, storm surges may also increase substantially. Sea level rise, an increase in cyclone intensity, and consequent increases in storm surge heights will have disastrous effects on a deltaic country like Bangladesh, which is not much above the mean sea level. This paper examines the climatology of cyclones in the Bay of Bengal for the last 110 years and trends in cyclone frequency and intensity. The phenomenon of storm surges in the Bay of Bengal is examined along with the primary reasons for the severity of storm surges in Bangladesh. The paper discusses both qualitatively and quantitatively the impacts of rises in temperature on tropical cyclone intensity in Bangladesh. With the use of a mathematical model developed for the simulation of storm surges along the Bangladesh coast, various scenarios of storm surges are developed. Using lower and upper bounds of sea surface temperature rise of 2 and 4 degrees C and of sea level rise of 0.3 and 1.0 m (according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change standard), the model simulates the maximum possible surges that are likely to occur under these conditions. 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RP di Lernia, S, Univ Roma La Sapienza, Fac Hlth Sci, Dept Archaeol Sci, Via Palestro 63, I-00185 Rome, Italy. AB Abrupt climatic changes in marginal areas, such as the central Sahara in the Early and Middle Holocene were among the major environmental constraints on prehistoric human groups. Social responses to these events were different, with different paths and outcomes. The spread of a 'cattle cult'-animals buried in 'megalithic' stone structures-in the Sahara at the end of the 7th millennium BP (ca. 6400-6000 yr BP) is seen here as a collective ritual that emerged, within Saharan pastoral societies, to face uncertain climate and socially relate to 'superhuman' entities. The type of rite-slaughtering of precious domestic livestock-reveals a shared identity in coping with catastrophic episodes-i.e., abrupt droughts. The spread of this 'cult' over large parts of present day Sahara is interpreted as the result of rapid movements of nomadic groups in search of pasture and water. Dramatic climatic deterioration at 5000 yr BP is one of the causes of a further major social shift in the rituals archaeologically detected by stone structures: these monuments become human burials, underlining a shift from social to individual identity, as mirrored in the funerary traditions of later pastoral groups. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd and INQUA. All rights reserved. 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RP Fankhauser, S, GLOBAL ENVIRONM FACIL SECRETARIAT,PRINCE,1818 H ST NW,WASHINGTON,DC 20433. AB Climate change is unique among the consequences of fossil fuel burning in its far reaching impact, both spatially and temporally. Earlier studies estimate the aggregated monetized damage due to climate change at 1.5 to 2.0% of world GDP (for 2 x CO2); the OECD would lose 1.0 to 1.5% of GDP; the developing countries 2.0 to 9.0%, according to these estimates. These figures are not comprehensive and highly uncertain. Newer studies increasingly emphasize adaptation, variability, extreme events, other (non-climate change) stress factors and the need for integrated assessment of damages. As a result, differences in impacts between regions and sectors have increased, the market impacts in developed countries tended to fall, and non-market impacts have become increasingly important. Marginal damages are more interesting from a policy point of view, Earlier estimates range from about US$5 to US$125 per tonne of carbon, with most estimates at the lower end of this range. These figures are based on polynomial functions in the level of climate change, but the rate of change may be equally important, as are the speed of adaptation, restoration and value adjustment. Furthermore, future vulnerability to climate change will be different from current vulnerability. On the whole, the market impacts fall (relatively) with economic growth while the non-market impacts rise (relatively) with growth. Copyright (C) 1996 Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. 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RP Gan, TY, Univ Alberta, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Edmonton, AB T6G 2G7, Canada. AB Past and the present studies show that the Canadian Prairies have become warmer and may have been drier in the last four to five decades but the drying trends are scattered and inconclusive. Statistical analysis shows that only the Winter and Fall (in some instances) precipitation is marginally related to ENSO and the PNA (Pacific North Americ) Index, and streamflow is highly variable. With uncertainties on the potential impact of climatic change and other uncertainties, several strategies are proposed to reduce the vulnerability of the Prairies to future droughts, where surface water is the primary water supply and agriculture is the major water user: (1) Continue implementing small-scale water resources projects and increase water storage through snow management, (2) increase integration between existing water resources systems, and (3) promote water conservation measures in agriculture practice, water pricing and water metering. 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RP Ali, SH, Univ Vermont, Sch Nat Resources, Burlington, VT 05405 USA. AB Environmental concerns have been framed in the planning profession as manifestations of resource scarcity, and hence a contributing factor in community conflicts. While mismanaged environmental scarcity can certainly lead to conflict, there is also considerable potential to stimulate cooperation on the basis of environmental scarcity itself. In the language of game theory, the latter outcome can be obtained by converting "dilemmas of common competing interests" to "dilemmas of common aversion." The cooperation which Would result from the use of environmental concerns as a binding element in conflicts among parties, is likely to catalyze a more "sustainable consensus"-a robust contract between erstwhile adversaries. Planners are in a unique position to glean the positive attributes of environmental indicators since they can bridge technical knowledge of environmental impact with air understanding of sociopolitical context at community consultation forums. This paper attempts to provide the theoretical basis for this approach and develop examples of how, such a strategy for conflict resolution may be implemented. 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RP Parris, TM, ISciences, Boston Off, LLC, 685 Ctr St,Suite 207, Boston, MA 02130 USA. AB Sustainable development has broad appeal and little specificity, but some combination of development and environment as well as equity is found in many attempts to describe it. However, proponents of sustainable development differ in their emphases on what is to be sustained, what is to be developed, how to link environment and development, and for how long a time. Despite the persistent definitional ambiguities associated with sustainable development, much work (over 500 efforts) has been devoted to developing quantitative indicators of sustainable development. The emphasis on sustainability indicators has multiple motivations that include decision making and management, advocacy, participation and consensus building, and research and analysis. We select a dozen prominent examples and use this review to highlight their similarities and differences in definition of sustainable development, motivation, process, and technical methods. We conclude that there are no indicator sets that are universally accepted, backed by compelling theory, rigorous data collection and analysis, and influential in policy. This is due to the ambiguity of sustainable development, the plurality of purpose in characterizing and measuring sustainable development, and the confusion of terminology, data, and methods of measurement. A major step in reducing such confusion would be the acceptance of distinctions in terminology, data, and methods. Toward this end, we propose an analytical framework that clearly distinguishes among goals, indicators, targets, trends, driving forces, and policy responses. We also highlight the need for continued research on scale, aggregation, critical limits, and thresholds. 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RP Wood, WB, US Dept State, Bur Intelligence & Res, Washington, DC 20520 USA. CR 2002, INT GEOGRAPHICAL UNI *GLOB ENV FAC, 2002, CHALL SUST ACT AG GL *NRC, 2002, DOWN EARTH GEOGR INF *UN, 1998, WORLD POP PROJ 2150 BLAIKIE, 1987, LAND DEGRADATION SOC BROWN L, 1991, PLACE MIGRATION DEV BURTON I, 1978, ENV HAZARD, V1, P1 CUTTER S, 2003, GEOGRAPHIC DIMENSION DALBY S, 2002, ENV SECURITY DANDO W, 1980, GEOGRAPHY FAMINE DOBSON JE, 2000, PHOTOGRAMM ENG REM S, V66, P849 FALCONER A, 2002, SYSTEM SURVIVAL GIS FORD RE, 1995, GEOJOURNAL, V35, P207 GLACKEN C, 1967, TRACES RHODIAN SHORE GROSSMAN M, 2002, AM FOR POL 21ST CENT HAUSMANN R, 2001, FOREIGN POLICY JAN, P45 HENNINGER N, 2002, POOR EXPERIENCES DEV JENSEN J, 2000, REMOTE SENSING ENV E KASPERSON RE, 1990, UNDERSTANDING GLOBAL KASPERSON RE, 1991, EVALUATION REV, V15, P149 KELMELIS J, 2001, GLOBAL MAPPING 0925, P23 LIVERMAN DM, 1990, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V80, P49 LONGLEY P, 1999, GEOGRAPHIC INFORMATI MATHER J, 1991, GLOBAL CHANGE GEOGRA ONSRUD H, 1995, SHARING GEOGRAPHIC I PELOSI N, 2001, VIOLENT ENV SAUER C, 1956, MANS ROLE CHANGING F, V1, P49 TURNER BL, 1990, EARTH TRANSFORMED HU TURNER BL, 1993, POPULATION GROWTH AG WILBANKS TJ, 1994, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V84, P541 WOOD WB, 1999, REORDERING WORLD GEO, P192 ZIMMERER K, 1998, NATURES GEOGRAPHY NE ZIMMERER KS, 1994, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V84, P108 NR 33 TC 0 J9 PROF GEOGR BP 53 EP 61 PY 2004 PD FEB VL 56 IS 1 GA 766EY UT ISI:000188354800008 ER PT J AU HEATHCOTE, RL TI DROUGHT MITIGATION IN AUSTRALIA - REDUCING THE LOSSES BUT NOT REMOVING THE HAZARD SO GREAT PLAINS QUARTERLY LA English DT Article RP HEATHCOTE, RL, FLINDERS UNIV S AUSTRALIA,GEOG,BEDFORD PK,SA 5042,AUSTRALIA. CR *AUSTR MAR SCI TEC, 1983, P C SIGN SO OSC NIN *S AUSTR ENG WAT S, 1978, S AUSTR RIV MURR SAL, V3 *SAGRIC, CHANG HOR *WORK PART DRYL SA, 1982, SALT NON IRR LAND AU ALLAN RJ, 1983, MON WEATHER REV, V111, P113 ANDERSON JR, 1979, REV MKTG AGR EC, V47, P147 ATKINSON G, 1984, J SOIL CONSERV SERV, V40, P4 BARDSLEY KL, 1983, AUSTR GEOGRAPHICAL S, V21, P129 BATES WR, 1976, AUSTR UNESCO SEMINAR, P217 BURTON I, 1978, ENV HAZARD, V1, P1 BUTZER K, 1983, QUATERNARY RES, V19, P279 CAMPBELL R, 1983, Q REV RURAL EC, V5, P254 CARR DJ, 1981, PEOPLE PLANTS AUSTR CHAPMAN TG, 1976, AUSTR UNESCO SEMINAR CORNISH EA, 1980, AGR RECORD, V7, P3 COUGHLAN M, 1983, P C SIGN SO OSC NIN, P187 DAVIDSON BR, 1969, AUSTR WET DRY PHYSIC DILLON JL, 1962, AUSTR J AGR EC, V6, P50 DOUGLAS J, 1980, S AUSTR SPACE DURY GH, 1983, AUSTR GEOGRAPHICAL S, V21, P69 FOLEY JC, 1957, COMMONWEALTH AUSTR B, V43 FREEBAIRN JW, 1978, AUSTR J AGR EC, V22, P194 GENTILLI J, 1971, WORLD SURVEY CLIMATO, V13, P35 GIBBS WJ, 1967, COMMONWEALTH AUSTR B, V48 GILL AM, 1983, P C SIGN SO OSC NIN, P161 HARTE AJ, 1984, J SOIL CONSERV SERV, V40, P94 HEATHCOTE RL, 1969, GEOGR REV, V59, P175 HEATHCOTE RL, 1977, AUSTR GEOGRAPHY, P252 HEATHCOTE RL, 1979, NATURAL HAZARDS AUST HEATHCOTE RL, 1980, PERCEPTION DESERTIFI, P60 HEATHCOTE RL, 1981, PEOPLE PLANTS AUSTR, P295 IDSO SB, 1984, J CLIMATOL, V4, P399 LLOYDDAVIES H, 1982, CURRENT AFFAIRS B, V58, P16 LOVETT JV, 1973, ENV EC SOCIAL SIGNIF MACDONALDHOLMES J, 1944, GEOGRAPHICAL BASIS G MACDONALDHOLMES J, 1960, GEOGRAPHICAL BASIS K MCBOYLE GR, 1980, WEATHER MODIFICATION MEINIG DW, 1962, MARGINS GOOD EARTH S MENZIES BJ, 1983, 7 S AUSTR DEP AGR TE MENZIES BJ, 1984, 8 S AUSTR DEP AGR TE MILLER GL, 1980, IRRIGATION WATER USE, P65 MULCAHY MJ, 1978, SEARCH, V9, P269 NICHOLLS N, 1983, P C SIGN SO OSC NIN, P45 NICHOLLS N, 1983, SEARCH, V14, P154 OLIVER J, 1984, 7 J COOK U CTR DIS S OLOUGHLIN EM, 1980, IRRIGATION WATER USE PEARMAN GI, 1980, CARBON DIOXIDE CLIMA PELS S, 1978, SEARCH, V9, P273 PITTOCK AB, 1978, CLIMATIC CHANGE VARI PITTOCK AB, 1980, CARBON DIOXIDE CLIMA, P197 PITTOCK AB, 1981, 1981 P SEM CROPP MAR PITTOCK AB, 1983, P C SIGN SO OSC NIN, P137 POWELL AA, 1963, 3 U SYDN DEP AGR EC POWELL JM, 1976, ENV MANAGEMENT AUSTR PROCTOR MLR, 1940, AUSTR GEOGRAPHER, V3, P16 SCOTT B, 1983, P C SIGN SO OSC NIN, P211 TISDALL AL, 1980, IRRIGATION WATER USE, P24 TUCKER GB, 1980, CARBON DIOXIDE CLIMA, P210 TUCKER GB, 1981, CO2 CLIMATE CONNECTI VANDIJK M, 1983, NEW SCI 0407, P30 WARING EJ, 1976, AUSTR UNESCO SEMINAR, P243 WHITE GF, 1974, NATURAL HAZARDS LOCA WILLIAMS M, 1974, MAKING S AUSTR LANDS WRIGLEY CW, 1981, AUSTR DICT BIOGRAPHY, V8, P471 YEOMANS PA, 1954, KEYLINE PLAN NR 65 TC 1 J9 GREAT PLAINS QUART BP 225 EP 237 PY 1986 PD SUM VL 6 IS 3 GA D5915 UT ISI:A1986D591500006 ER PT J AU Hollenstein, K TI Reconsidering the risk assessment concept: Standardizing the impact description as a building block for vulnerability assessment SO NATURAL HAZARDS AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES LA English DT Article C1 Swiss Fed Inst Technol, Zurich, Switzerland. RP Hollenstein, K, Swiss Fed Inst Technol, Zurich, Switzerland. AB Risk assessments for natural hazards are becoming more widely used and accepted. Using an extended definition of risk, it becomes obvious that performant procedures for vulnerability assessments are vital for the success of the risk concept. However, there are large gaps in knowledge about vulnerability. To alleviate the situation, a conceptual extension of the scope of existing and new models is suggested. The basis of the suggested concept is a stadardization of the output of hazard assessments. This is achieved by defining states of the target objects that depend on the impact and at the same time affect the object's performance characteristics. The possible state variables can be related to a limited set of impact descriptors termed generic impact description interface. The concept suggests that both hazard and vulnerability assessment models are developed according to the specification of this interface, thus facilitating modularized risk assessments. Potential problems related to the application of the concept include acceptance issues and the lacking accuracy of transformation of outputs of existing models. Potential applications and simple examples for adapting existing models are briefly discussed. CR *ATC, 1985, ATC13 *FEMA, 1999, HAZUS99 SR2 TECHN MA *IUGS, 1997, P INT WORKSH LANDSL, P3 BALENDRA T, 1999, EARTHQUAKE ENG STRUC, V28, P1361 COBURN A, 1992, EARTHQUAKE PROTECTIO DAMERON RA, 1996, WORLDWIDE ADV STRUCT DEAN ET, 1999, STRUCTURAL ENG 21 CE DOWRICK DJ, 1997, B NZ NATL SOC EARTHQ, V30, P227 HOLLENSTEIN K, 2002, MODELLIERUNG VULNERA PORTER KA, 2001, EARTHQ SPECTRA, V17, P291 NR 10 TC 1 J9 NAT HAZARDS EARTH SYST SCI BP 301 EP 307 PY 2005 VL 5 IS 3 GA 939WS UT ISI:000230104000001 ER PT J AU ADAMS, A TI FOOD INSECURITY IN MALI - EXPLORING THE ROLE OF THE MORAL ECONOMY SO IDS BULLETIN-INSTITUTE OF DEVELOPMENT STUDIES LA English DT Article RP ADAMS, A, HARVARD UNIV,CTR POPULAT & DEV STUDIES,CAMBRIDGE,MA 02138. AB This article challenges the view that the 'moral economy' has little relevance to the problems of food insecurity and famine in the contemporary context. Fieldwork in central Mali reveals an array of social practices and institutions which help farming households minimize the risk of food insecurity, and to cope with food crises when they occur. Based on the dual principles of mutual insurance and self interest, this 'moral economy' mediates a significant but not necessarily equitable flow of non-market transfers ranging from cereal gifts to village cereal bank loans and labour exchange. CR 1987, B SAP ADAMS AM, 1992, THESIS U LONDON BLEDSOE CH, 1988, SOC SCI MED, V27, P627 BRASSEUR G, 1961, B I FONDAMENTAL AFRI, V23, P607 BRATTON, 1987, DROUGHT HUNGER AFRIC, P323 CHAMBERS R, 1981, SEASONAL DIMENSIONS DIRKS R, 1980, CURR ANTHROPOL, V21, P21 EVANSPRITCHARD EE, 1940, NUER RELIGION FAFCHAMPS M, 1992, ECON DEV CULT CHANGE, V41, P147 FIRTH R, 1959, SOCIAL CHANGE TIKOPI FORTES M, 1936, AFRICA, V9, P237 FORTES M, 1949, WEB KINSHIP TALLENSI FULTON D, 1982, SOCIOECONOMIC STUDY GOODY J, 1958, DEV CYCLE DOMESTIC G HILL P, 1972, RURAL HAUSA VILLAGE KLAUS E, 1976, TRADITION PROGR AFRI LABOURET H, 1934, MANDING LEUR LANGUES LAUGHLIN CD, 1974, MAN, V9, P380 LEWIS J, 1979, THESIS YALE U LEWIS JV, 1981, AM ETHNOL, V8, P53 MAUSS M, 1950, GIFT FORM REASON EXC MCNAUGHTON PR, 1988, MANDE BLACKSMITHS KN MEILLASOUX C, 1981, MAIDENS MEAL MONEY C NORMAN D, 1977, AFRICAN ENV, V2, P3 PALES LC, 1954, ALIMENTATION AOF MIL PAQUES V, 1954, BAMBARA MONOGRAPHIES PLATTEAU JP, 1991, SOCIAL SECURITY DEV, P112 POLANYI K, 1944, GREAT TRANSFORMATION POSNER RA, 1980, J LAW ECON, V23, P1 RAYNAUT C, 1975, SECHERESSES FAMINES, P5 RICHARDS P, 1985, INDIGENOUS AGR REVOL RICHARDS P, 1986, COPING HUNGER HAZARD SAHLINS M, 1965, RELEVANCE MODELS SOC, P139 SCOTT JC, 1976, MORAL EC PEASANT SEN AK, 1981, POVERTY FAMINES ESSA, V1, P1 STAATZ JM, 1989, WORLD DEV, V17, P703 SWIFT J, 1989, IDS B, V20, P8 TORRY WI, 1987, DROUGHT HUNGER AFRIC, P323 TOULMIN C, 1986, IDS BULL-I DEV STUD, V17, P58 TRIMINGHAM JS, 1959, ISLAM W AFRICA TURNBULL CM, 1972, MOUNTAIN PEOPLE WATTS MJ, 1984, LIFE BEFORE DROUGHT, P124 WHITE BHF, 1980, RURAL HOUSEHOLD STUD, P3 NR 43 TC 11 J9 IDS BULL-INST DEVELOP STUD BP 41 EP 51 PY 1993 PD OCT VL 24 IS 4 GA LZ945 UT ISI:A1993LZ94500005 ER PT J AU Kundzewicz, ZW Kaczmarek, Z TI Coping with hydrological extremes SO WATER INTERNATIONAL LA English DT Article C1 Polish Acad Sci, Res Ctr Agr & Forest Environm, PL-60809 Poznan, Poland. RP Kundzewicz, ZW, Polish Acad Sci, Res Ctr Agr & Forest Environm, Bukowska 19, PL-60809 Poznan, Poland. AB Coping with hydrological extremes, floods, and droughts has been a major concern since the dawn of human civilization. Freshwater, a necessary condition of life and a raw material used in very high volumes in virtually every human activity, is becoming increasingly scarce. Water use has risen considerably in the last hundred years at a pace exceeding the population growth. Therefore, societies are increasingly vulnerable to droughts and water deficits. Although the 21st century is heralded as the age of water scarcity, flood losses continue to grow. Increasing global vulnerability results to a large extent from soaring anthropopressure: settlements in hazardous locations and adverse land use changes. Deforestation and urbanization lead to reduction of the storage volume and higher values of runoff coefficient. In more wealthy countries, it is the material flood losses that continue to grow, while the number of fatalities goes down. Advanced flood preparedness systems can save lives and reduce human suffering. In some regions of the world, long-term forecasts (e.g., ENSO) help improve the preparedness for hydrological extremes, both floods and droughts, and hopefully will even more so in the future. Scenarios for future climate indicate the possibility of sharpening the extremes and changes of their seasonality. For instance, in Western Scotland and Norway, an increase of winter floods has already been observed According to recent assessments, there is a growing risk of summer droughts in the Mediterranean region: less precipitation in summer and higher temperature will coincide, causing higher evapotranspiration and less runoff Fighting with floods and droughts has not been quite successful, Humans have to get used to the fact that extreme hydrological events are natural phenomena that will continue to occur. While doing one's best to improve the preparedness systems, it is necessary to learn to live with hydrological extremes. CR *ENV AG UK, 1998, ACT PLAN FLOOD DEF *GERM ADV COUNC GL, 1997, WORLD TRANS WAYS SUS *IFMRC, 1994, SHAR CHALL FLOODPL M *IMP CLIM CHANG HY, 1997, EV5VCT930293 WATSON RT, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, V1, P1 *NAT DIS SURV REP, 1994, GREAT FLOOD 1993 *RIBAMOD, 1998, P 1 WORKSH EUR COMM *UNCED, 1992, UN PUBL BERAN M, 1995, HYDROLOGY DISASTERS BROOKS H, 1992, ATAS B, V7, P19 CORDERY I, 1999, HYDROLOGICAL EXTREME GALLOWAY GE, 1998, P FIN WORKSH RIBAMOD, P235 GARDINER J, 1995, DEFENCE FLOODS FLOOD, P13 GLANTZ MH, 1977, B AM METEOROLOGICAL, V58, P150 GLANTZ MH, 1982, WATER RESOUR RES, V18, P3 GOPPERT H, 1998, HYDROLOG SCI J, V43, P215 HOWELL PP, 1994, NILE SHARING SCARCE HURRELL JW, 1997, CLIMATE CHANGE KACZMAREK Z, 1997, IMPACT CLIMATE CHANG, V1, P51 KACZMAREK Z, 1999, INT C GLOB CHANG CAT KULSHRESHTHA SN, 1993, RR9310 IIASA KUNDZEWICZ ZW, 1999, HYDROLOG SCI J, V44, P417 KUNDZEWICZ ZW, 1999, HYDROLOG SCI J, V44, P559 KUNDZEWICZ ZW, 1999, HYDROLOG SCI J, V44, P855 MUNICH R, 1997, FLOODING INSURANCE SEHMI NS, 1997, P S HELF 5 IAHS SCI SHOWSTACK R, 1999, EOS T AM GEOPHYS UN, V80, P365 STAHL K, 1999, HYDROLOG SCI J, V44, P467 TAKEUCHI K, 1998, IAHS PUBL, V251 THOMAS FH, 1995, DEFENCE FLOODS FLOOD, P257 WHETTON PH, 1993, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V25, P289 WILLIAMS PB, 1994, CIVIL ENG MAY, P51 NR 32 TC 6 J9 WATER INT BP 66 EP 75 PY 2000 PD MAR VL 25 IS 1 GA 295VE UT ISI:000085987900007 ER PT J AU Batjargal, Z Dulam, J Chung, YS TI Dust storms are an indication of an unhealthy environment in East Asia SO ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING AND ASSESSMENT LA English DT Article C1 Korea China Ctr Atmospher Res, Chonju 363891, South Korea. Extraordinary Plenipotentiary Ambassador Mongolia, Tokyo, Japan. Inst Meteorol & Hydrol, Ulaanbaatar 46, Mongol Peo Rep. RP Chung, YS, Korea China Ctr Atmospher Res, Chonju 363891, South Korea. AB Dust storms frequently occur in Mongolia and in northern China. Each year there are 30 to 120 dusty days in source regions of Mongolia and 14-20 dusty days on the Korean Peninsula. Intense sand storms and associated dust falls produce environmental impacts in East Asia. This paper discusses the environmental degradation in Mongolia and the social, economic and atmospheric impacts of dust storms in the sink area. The impact of dust storms on environmental compartments as well as their direct and indirect consequences to basic resources like water and energy demand and supply is explained. Governments are encouraged to take appropriate action in specified regions. For monitoring dust storms there is a need for international cooperation to combat growing environmental and human security concerns. CR 2002, JAPAN TIMES 0409 2002, KOREA HERALD 0409 *ADB, 2001, AS DEV BANKS AS ENV *ADB, 2001, WAT ALL WAT POL AS D *WHO UNCEF, 2000, GLOB WAT SUPPL SAN A *WORLD RES I, 2001, WORLD RES 2000 2001 ABE S, 2002, NE AS EC C NIIG JAP BABSON O, 2002, NE AS EC C NIIG JAP BATJARGAL Z, 2001, 7 KAN S NE AS DIAL K CHUNG YS, 2003, ATMOS ENVIRON, V37, P3425 CHUNG YS, 2003, WATER AIR SOIL POLL, P5 HIRONO R, 2002, COMMUNICATION JIBIKI M, 2002, NE AS EC C NIIG JAP ROSEN R, 2002, COMMUNICATION NR 14 TC 0 J9 ENVIRON MONIT ASSESS BP 447 EP 460 PY 2006 PD MAR VL 114 IS 1-3 GA 033JY UT ISI:000236844500026 ER PT J AU Lee, JJ Phillips, DL Benson, VW TI Soil erosion and climate change: Assessing potential impacts and adaptation practices SO JOURNAL OF SOIL AND WATER CONSERVATION LA English DT Article C1 US EPA, Natl Hlth & Environm Effects Res Lab, Corvallis, OR 97333 USA. USDA, Nat Resources Conservat Serv Grassland, Soil & Water Res Lab, Temple, TX 76502 USA. RP Lee, JJ, US EPA, Natl Hlth & Environm Effects Res Lab, 200 SW 35th St, Corvallis, OR 97333 USA. AB Changes in climate associated with changes in atmospheric concentrations of CO2 and other greenhouse gases might affect soil erosion by wind and water. Changes in erosion could in turn cause changes in productivity and sustainability of agricultural systems, and changes in air quality (PM10) and water quality (sediment transport). Substantial effects on productivity may however, only occur several decades after climate changes. This paper presents a procedure for assessing the potential effects of climate change on erosion and productivity. A preliminary screening process is used to identify and prioritize regions and management systems. Subsequent simulation of selected sites with the EPIC model is used to investigate potential practices to adapt agricultural systems to climate change. In some cases, proposed adaptation strategies might reduce sustainability if they due not matched to environmental conditions found at specific sites. As an example, the assessment procedure is applied to evaluate vulnerability and adaptation practices for a 20% increase in mean monthly wind speeds in the U.S. corn belt. CR *AGR RES SERV, 1995, EPIC US GUID DRAFT U *NAT AGR STAT SERV, 1993, AGR STAT 1993 ADAMS RM, 1990, NATURE, V345, P219 BENSON VW, 1989, J SOIL WATER CONSERV, V44, P600 BOARDMAN J, 1990, LAND DEGRAD REHABIL, V2, P95 BOARDMAN J, 1993, GEOGR J, V159, P179 CROSSON PR, 1993, AGR DIMENSIONS GLOBA, P117 FAVISMORTLOCK D, IN PRESS GEOMORPHOLO FAVISMORTLOCK DT, 1991, AGR SYST, V37, P415 FRANZ EH, 1990, SOILS WARMER EARTH, P109 HOUGHTON JT, 1990, CLIMATE CHANGE IPCC JENKINSON DS, 1991, NATURE, V351, P304 KELLOGG RL, 1994, J SOIL WATER CONSERV, V49, P521 LEE JJ, 1993, WATER AIR SOIL POLL, V70, P389 LEE JJ, 1996, IN PRESS AGR SYSTEMS, V52 OLDEMAN LR, 1990, WORLD MAP STAT HUM I ONSTAD CA, 1975, T ASAE, V18, P288 PHILLIPS DL, 1993, LAND DEGRAD REHABIL, V4, P61 PHILLIPS DL, 1996, IN PRESS AGR SYSTEMS, V52 ROBINSON AR, 1979, UNIVERSAL SOIL LOSS, P7 ROSENZWEIG C, 1994, NATURE, V367, P133 SHARPLEY AN, 1990, USDA TECHNICAL B, V1768 STETLER LD, 1994, ANN M CINC JUN 19 24 STOCKLE CO, 1992, AGR SYST, V38, P225 TINKER PB, 1990, SOILS WARMER EARTH, P71 TUKEY JW, 1977, EXPLORATORY DATA ANA VARALLYAY GY, 1990, SOILS WARMER EARTH, P39 WILLIAMS JR, 1975, PRESENT PROSPECTIVE, P244 WILLIAMS JR, 1994, NEW EPIC WIND EROSIO WISCHMEIER WH, 1978, USDA AGR HDB, V537 WOODRUFF NP, 1965, SOIL SCI SOC AM J, V29, P602 NR 31 TC 0 J9 J SOIL WATER CONSERV BP 529 EP 536 PY 1999 VL 54 IS 3 GA 277MB UT ISI:000084936400003 ER PT J AU Russ, GR Alcala, AC TI Natural fishing experiments in marine reserves 1983-1993: roles of life history and fishing intensity in family responses SO CORAL REEFS LA English DT Article C1 James Cook Univ N Queensland, Dept Marine Biol, Townsville, Qld 4811, Australia. Dev Acad Philippines, Pasig, Metro Manila, Philippines. RP Russ, GR, James Cook Univ N Queensland, Dept Marine Biol, Townsville, Qld 4811, Australia. AB This study examined the effect of fishing on the abundance and species richness of families of coral reef fish at two islands (Sumilon and Apo) in the Philippines from 1983 to 1993. Natural fishing experiments occurred in marine reserves at each island, where long term estimates of fishing intensity were available. Responses to fishing were interpreted in terms of life histories of fish. The intensity of fishing and fish life histories were generally good predictors of the differential rates of decline and recovery of abundance in response to fishing. Large predators had vulnerable life histories (low rates of natural mortality, growth and recruitment) and were subjected to high intensity fishing. They declined significantly in density when fished and increased significantly but slowly when protected from fishing. Caesionidae, a family with a life history resilient to fishing (high rates of natural mortality, growth and recruitment) but fished intensively also declined rapidly in abundance when fished. Thus, knowledge of life history alone was insufficient to predict response to fishing. Acanthuridae were fished relatively hard and had a life history of intermediate vulnerability but displayed weak responses to fishing. Thus level of fishing intensity alone was also not sufficient to predict response to fishing. For Chaetodontidae, effects of fishing conformed to expectations based on life history and fishing intensity at one island but not the other. Three families with intermediate vulnerability and subjected to intermediate to light fishing (F. Scaridae, Labridae and Mullidae) displayed predictably weak responses to fishing, or counter-intuitive responses (e.g., increasing in abundance following fishing). These counter-intuitive responses were unlikely to be secondary effects of increase in prey in response to declines of predators. Two lightly-fished families with resilient life histories (F. Pomacentridae, Sub F. Anthiinae) predictably displayed weak numerical responses to fishing except during a period of use of explosives and drive nets. 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SE Archaeol Res Inc, Gainesville, FL 32604 USA. Rollins Coll, Dept Anthropol, Winter Pk, FL 32789 USA. Univ Michigan, Sch Nat Resources & Environm, Ann Arbor, MI 48109 USA. RP Ensor, BE, Univ Florida, Dept Anthropol, 1112 Turlington Hall,POB 117305, Gainesville, FL 32611 USA. AB Waters and Ravesloot(2001) test the assumption that natural river channel change caused periods of Hohokam cultural reorganization. However, they conclude that channel changes did not correlate with all periods and areas of significant cultural changes and that landscape alone cannot explain Hohokam transformations. An anthropological perspective on political ecology and disasters can explain why environmental processes and events differentially impact societies, differentially impact societies diachronically and differentially impact social groups within societies. We suggest that this perspective may explain the variability described by Waters and Ravesloot. CR ABBOTT DR, 2000, CERAMICS COMMUNITY O ACKERLY NW, 1989, PREHISTORIC AGR ACTI, P333 ALEXANDER D, 1997, DISASTERS, V21, P284 ANDERSON RS, 1994, PUBLICATIONS ARCHAEO, V2, P205 BAHRE CJ, 1991, LEGACY CHANGE HIST H BARNES MR, 1984, KIVA, V49, P213 BASSETT TJ, 1988, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V78, P453 BAWDEN G, 2000, 7 MAXW MUS ANTHR BAYMAN JM, 1997, AM ANTIQUITY, V62, P103 BAYMAN JM, 1999, ANTIQUITY, V73, P836 BAYMAN JM, 1999, J ARCHAEOL RES, V7, P249 BENDER B, 1992, MAN, V27, P735 BENDER BA, 1993, LANDSCAPE POLITICS P BLAIKIE PM, 1994, RISK NATURAL HAZARDS, V1, P1 BOHRER VL, 1991, KIVA, V56, P227 BOLIN R, 1999, ANGRY EARTH DISASTER, P89 BOSTWICK TW, 1994, ARCHAEOL PUEBLO GRAN, V2, P297 BOTTEMA S, 1990, MANS ROLE SHAPING E BRUNSONHADLEY J, 1994, ARCHAEOLOGY PUEBLO G, V2, P185 BRYANT RL, 1997, 3 WORLD POLITICAL EC CABLE JS, 1987, HOHOKAM VILLAGE SITE, P21 CAMBELL CE, 1996, THESIS U FLORIDA GAI CROWN PL, 1987, J FIELD ARCHAEOL, V14, P147 CROWN PL, 1991, CHACO HOHOKAM PREHIS, P135 CRUMLEY CL, 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INTERPRETATIONS CALA HEWITT K, 1997, REGIONS RISK GEOGRAP, V1, P1 HIRSCH E, 1995, ANTHR LANDSCAPE PERS HUCKLEBERRY G, 1994, GEOLOGY, V22, P1083 HUCKLEBERRY G, 1999, KIVA, V65, P7 INGOLD T, 1993, WORLD ARCHAEOL, V25, P152 INGOLD T, 1995, SHIFTING CONTEXTS TR, P58 KWIATKOWSKI S, 1994, PUBLICATIONS ARCHAEO, V20, P5 LEES SH, 1990, ECOSYSTEM APPROACH A, P247 LEIGHLY J, 1965, LAND LIFE SELECTION LEONE MP, 1995, AM ANTHROPOL, V97, P251 LOPEZ M, 1999, YAXKIN, V18, P5 MASSE WB, 1991, CHACO HOHOKAM PREHIS, P195 MCGUIRE R, 1992, DEATH SOC IDEOLOGY H MCGUIRE RH, 1987, KIVA, V52, P113 MEISTER CW, 1975, THESIS U MICHIGAN AN MILLER J, 1994, PUBLICATIONS ARCHAEO, V20, P127 MOORE DS, 1993, ECON GEOGR, V69, P380 MOSELEY M, 1999, ANGRY EARTH DISASTER, P59 NIALS F, 1989, ARIZONA STATE MUSEUM, V162, P59 NICHOLAS L, 1984, PREHIST AGR STRATEGI, P161 OLIVERSMITH A, 1998, IS DISASTER PERSPECT, P177 OLIVERSMITH A, 1999, ANGRY EARTH DISASTER, P75 OLIVO M, 2002, THESIS U FLORIDA GAI PATTERSON WA, 1988, HOLOCENE 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TOPPING P, 1997, NEOLITHIC LANDSCAPES TORRY WI, 1986, GEOJOURNAL, V12, P5 TORRY WI, 1986, SOC SCI INFORM, V25, P125 UCKO PJ, 1999, ARCHAEOLOGY ANTHR LA VANBUREN M, 2001, J ARCHAEOL METHOD TH, V8, P129 VANGERVEN DP, 1994, SOIL SYSTEMS PUBLICA, V20 VANKEUREN S, 1997, KIVA, V63, P155 WADDINGTON C, 1999, LANDSCAPE ARCHAEOLOG WATERS MR, 1992, PRINCIPLES GEOARCHAE WATERS MR, 2001, AM ANTIQUITY, V66, P285 WATTS MJ, 1983, INTERPRETATIONS CALA, P124 WEBER DJ, 1982, MEXICAN FRONTIER 182 WILCOX DR, 1979, ARCHAEOLOGICAL TEST, P77 WILCOX DR, 1981, ARIZONA STATE MUSEUM, V155 WILCOX DR, 1983, ARIZONA STATE MUSEUM, V160 WILCOX DR, 1994, THEMES SW PREHISTORY, P211 WISNER B, 1976, 96 U SUSS I DEV STUD WISNER B, 1978, ANTIPODE, V10, P84 WOLF E, 1972, ANTHR Q, V45, P201 ZARINS J, 2000, ENV DISASTER ARCHAEO, P35 NR 118 TC 0 J9 AMER ANTIQ BP 169 EP 181 PY 2003 PD JAN VL 68 IS 1 GA 640EN UT ISI:000180675200011 ER PT J AU Keys, E McConnell, WJ TI Global change and the intensification of agriculture in the tropics SO GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS LA English DT Review C1 Arizona State Univ, Dept Geog, Tempe, AZ 85287 USA. Indiana Univ, Ctr Study Inst Populat & Environm Change, Bloomington, IN 47405 USA. RP Keys, E, Arizona State Univ, Dept Geog, Box 870104, Tempe, AZ 85287 USA. AB Bridging understanding of local environmental change with regional and global patterns of land-use and land-cover change (LUCC) remains a key goal and challenge for our understanding of global environmental change. This meta-analysis attempts to bridge local and regional scales of LUCC by demonstrating the ways in which previously published case studies can be compared and used for a broader regional synthesis in the tropics. In addition to providing results from a meta-analysis, this paper suggests ways to make future case studies more widely comparable. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 *NAT RES COUNC, 1999, HUM DIM GLOB ENV CHA *NAT RES COUNC, 2001, GRAND CHALL ENV SCI *WORLD RES I, 1996, WORLD RES GUID GLOB *WORLD RES I, 2000, WORLD RES 2000 01 ACHARD F, 1998, IDENTIFICATION DEFOR ALEXANDRATOS N, 1995, WORLD AGR 2000 FAO S ALTIERI MA, 1995, AGROECOLOGY SCI SUST ANGELSEN A, 1999, WORLD BANK RES OBSER, V14, P73 BARLETT PF, 1976, J ANTHROPOL RES, V32, P124 BATTERBURY S, 1998, ASS AM GEOGR ANN M B BEBBINGTON A, 2000, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V90, P495 BENIN S, 2001, LAND DEGRAD DEV, V12, P555 BENJAMINSEN TA, 2001, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V11, P283 BERNARD F, 1993, POPULATION GROWTH AG, P80 BOSERUP E, 1965, CONDITIONS AGR GROWT BOSERUP E, 1981, POPULATION PRESSURE BOYD DJ, 2001, HUM ECOL, V29, P259 BRIGGS J, 1991, T I BRIT GEOGR, V16, P319 BRONDIZIO ES, 1997, RES ECON AN, V18, P233 BRONDIZIO ES, 1999, MANAGING GLOBALIZED, P88 BROOKFIELD HC, 1964, ECON GEOGR, V40, P283 BROWDER JO, 2000, AGROFOREST SYST, V49, P63 BROWN P, 1976, ETHNOLOGY, V15, P211 BUTZER KW, 1982, ARCHAEOLOGY HUMAN EC CARNEY J, 1993, ECON GEOGR, V69, P329 CHAYANOV AV, 1966, THEORY PEASANT EC CONELLY WT, 1992, HUM ECOL, V20, P203 CONELLY WT, 2001, HUM ECOL, V28, P19 COOMES OT, 2000, ECOL ECON, V32, P109 CRUTZEN PJ, 2001, GLOBAL CHANGE NEWSLE, V41, P12 CRUZ M, 1999, CURR ANTHROPOL, V40, P377 DIETZ T, 2003, SCIENCE, V302, P1907 DOOLITTLE WE, 1984, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V74, P124 DRESCHER AW, 1996, AFRICAN URBAN Q, V11, P210 DUCKHAM M, 2003, FDN GEOGRAPHIC INFOR EDER JF, 1991, HUM ORGAN, V50, P245 EHRLICH PR, 1988, CASSANDRA CONFERENCE EHRLICH PR, 1990, POPULATION EXPLOSION EHRLICH PR, 1993, POPUL DEV REV, V19, P1 EWELL PT, 1987, COMP FARMING SYSTEMS, P95 FISHER MG, 2000, SOC NATUR RESOUR, V13, P203 FORD RE, 1993, POPULATION GROWTH AG, P145 GEERTZ C, 1963, AGR INVOLUTION PROCE GEIST HJ, 2001, LUCC REPORT SERIES, V4 GEIST HJ, 2002, BIOSCIENCE, V52, P143 GEIST HJ, 2004, BIOSCIENCE, V54, P817 GEORGE PS, 2001, TRI ACADEMY PANEL, P79 GODOY R, 1997, CURR ANTHROPOL, V38, P875 GOLDMAN A, 1993, ECON GEOGR, V69, P44 GRAF WL, 2001, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V91, P1 GRAY LC, 2001, WORLD DEV, V29, P573 GROSSMAN LS, 1993, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V83, P347 GUILLET D, 1987, RES EC ANTHR, V8, P201 GUMBO DJ, 1996, AFRICAN URBAN Q, V11, P210 GUYER J, 1993, AM ETHNOL, V95, P836 HAYAMI Y, 1985, AGR DEV INT PERSPECT HENRICH J, 1997, HUM ECOL, V25, P319 HOPKINS NS, 1987, COMP FARMING SYSTEMS, P223 HUMPHRIES S, 1993, HUM ECOL, V21, P87 JOHNSON SH, 1986, IRRIGATION INVESTMEN, P111 KAMMERBAUER J, 1999, AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON, V75, P93 KASFIR N, 1993, POPULATION GROWTH AG, P41 KASPERSON JX, 1995, REGIONS RISK, V1, P1 KATES RW, 1987, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V77, P525 KATES RW, 1995, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V85, P623 KATES RW, 2001, SCIENCE, V292, P641 KEESE JR, 1998, HUM ECOL, V26, P451 KEYS E, 2004, DUAL FRONTIERS INTEG, P207 KULL CA, 1998, PROF GEOGR, V50, P163 KUNSTADTER P, 1987, COMP FARMING SYSTEMS, P130 LAMBIN EF, 1999, LAND USE LAND COVER LAMBIN EF, 2001, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V11, P261 LANEY RM, 2002, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V92, P702 LEAF MJ, 1987, COMP FARMING SYSTEMS, P248 LEE RD, 1986, STATE POPULATION THE, P96 LVOVICH MI, 1990, EARTH TRANSFORMED HU MALTHUS TR, 1986, ESSAY PRINCIPLE POPU MARTIN S, 1993, POPULATION GROWTH AG, P302 MAXWELL D, 1999, THIRD WORLD PLAN REV, V21, P373 MCCONNELL WJ, 2005, SEEING FOREST TREES, P325 MCKEAN MA, 2000, PEOPLE FORESTS COMMU MEYER WB, 1994, CHANGES LAND USE LAN MITTERMEIER RA, 1998, CONSERV BIOL, V12, P516 MORAN EF, 1995, COMP ANAL HUMAN SOC MORTIMORE MJ, 1993, POPULATION GROWTH AG, P358 NETTING R, 1993, POPULATION GROWTH AG, P206 NICHOLS DL, 1987, AM ANTHROPOL, V89, P596 OKOTHOGENDO HWO, 1993, POPULATION GROWTH AG, P187 ORTIZ R, 1998, OUTLOOK AGR, V27, P125 OSTROM E, 1990, GOVERNING COMMONS EV PADOCH C, 1998, HUM ECOL, V26, P3 RAGIN CC, 2000, FUZZY SET SOCIAL SCI RAMANKUTTY N, 1999, GLOBAL BIOGEOCHEM CY, V13, P997 RAMANKUTTY N, 2002, GLOBAL ECOL BIOGEOGR, V11, P377 RAVEN PH, 2002, SCIENCE, V297, P954 REDMAN CL, 1999, HUMAN IMPACT ANCIENT RICHARDS P, 1987, COMP FARMING SYSTEMS, P156 RINDFUSS RR, 2004, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V101, P13976 ROBBINS P, 2001, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V91, P637 ROCHELEAU D, 1996, FEMINIST POLITICAL E ROOT TL, 2003, NATURE, V421, P57 RUDEL T, 1996, AMBIO, V25, P160 RUDEL T, 1997, WORLD DEV, V25, P53 RUDEL TK, 2002, LAT AM RES REV, V37, P144 RUDEL TK, 2005, TROPICAL FORESTS REG SCHELHAS J, 1996, HUM ORGAN, V55, P298 SHIDONG Z, 2001, GROWING POPULATIONS, P179 SHIDONG Z, 2001, GROWING POPULATIONS, P207 SHIVELY GE, 2001, LAND ECON, V77, P268 SHORR N, 2001, HUM ECOL, V28, P73 SHRIAR AJ, 2001, HUM ECOL, V29, P27 SIERRA R, 1999, ECOL ECON, V30, P107 STEFFEN W, 2004, GLOBAL CHANGE EARTH TAUSSIG M, 1978, LAT AM PERSPECT, V5, P62 TIFFEN M, 1994, MORE PEOPLE LESS ERO, P261 TILMAN D, 1999, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V96, P5995 TURNER BL, 1977, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V67, P384 TURNER BL, 1978, PROF GEOGR, V30, P297 TURNER BL, 1987, COMP FARMING SYSTEMS TURNER BL, 1990, EARTH TRANSFORMED HU TURNER BL, 1993, 24HDP IGBP TURNER BL, 1996, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V93, P14984 TURNER BL, 2002, CHALLENGES CHANGING, P21 VASHISHTHA PS, 2001, GROWING POPULATIONS, P107 VERMEER DE, 1970, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V60, P299 WAGGONER PE, 2002, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V99, P7860 WATSON RT, 2001, INTERGOVERNMENTAL PA WIEGERS ES, 1999, HUM ECOL, V27, P319 WILKEN G, 1987, GOOD FARMERS TRADITI ZWEIFLER MO, 1994, PROF GEOGR, V46, P39 NR 131 TC 2 J9 GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANGE BP 320 EP 337 PY 2005 PD DEC VL 15 IS 4 GA 988TG UT ISI:000233623200005 ER PT J AU Ettazarini, S TI Groundwater pollution risk mapping for the Eocene aquifer of the Oum Er-Rabia basin, Morocco SO ENVIRONMENTAL GEOLOGY LA English DT Article C1 Mohamed V Agdal Univ, Dept Geol, Fac Sci, Rabat, Morocco. RP Ettazarini, S, Mohamed V Agdal Univ, Dept Geol, Fac Sci, Rabat, Morocco. AB Sustainable development requires the management and preservation of water resources indispensable for all human activities. When groundwater constitutes the main water resource, vulnerability maps therefore are an important tool for identifying zones of high pollution risk and taking preventive measures in potential pollution sites. The vulnerability assessment for the Eocene aquifer in the Moroccan basin of Oum Er-Rabia is based on the DRASTIC method that uses seven parameters summarizing climatic, geological, and hydrogeological conditions controlling the seepage of pollutant substances to groundwater. Vulnerability maps were produced by using GIS techniques and applying the "generic" and "agricultural" models according to the DRASTIC charter. Resulting maps revealed that the aquifer is highly vulnerable in the western part of the basin and areas being under high contamination risk are more extensive when the "agricultural" model was applied. CR 1993, R356104SEAU92 ALLER L, 1985, US EPA600285018 BELFKIRA O, 1980, THESIS SCI MED U GRE, P167 BENBIBA A, 1994, EAU DEV, V17, P15 BENHAMMOU Y, 1995, THESIS HASSAN, V2, P180 CHEN SY, 2003, HYDROLOG SCI J, V48, P211 DEICHERT LA, 1992, ASAE INT WINT M NASH ELMAHMOUHI N, 2003, REV MAROC GENIE CIVI, V104, P30 ETTAZARINI S, 2002, THESIS MOHAMED V AGD, P286 ETTAZARINI S, 2004, ENVIRON GEOL, V46, P113 ETTAZARINI S, 2004, ENVIRON GEOL, V47, P69 ETTAZARINI S, 2005, ENVIRON GEOL, V49, P293 HSISSOU Y, 1991, THESIS U FRANCHE COM, P196 ZHOU HC, 1999, HYDROLOG SCI J, V44, P611 NR 14 TC 0 J9 ENVIRON GEOL BP 341 EP 347 PY 2006 PD NOV VL 51 IS 3 GA 114NE UT ISI:000242672100002 ER PT J AU Baxter, PJ TI The east coast Big Flood, 31 January-1 February 1953: a summary of the human disaster SO PHILOSOPHICAL TRANSACTIONS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY A-MATHEMATICAL PHYSICAL AND ENGINEERING SCIENCES LA English DT Article C1 Univ Cambridge, Inst Publ Hlth, Cambridge CB2 2SR, England. RP Baxter, PJ, Univ Cambridge, Inst Publ Hlth, Forvie Site,Robinson Way, Cambridge CB2 2SR, England. AB The Big Flood was the worst natural disaster to befall Britain during the twentieth century, and the scale of its human impact was due to the lack of adequate disaster preparedness. The 307 deaths on land were caused by drowning or from the effects of exposure. Two-thirds occurred in four clusters along the shoreline and mainly comprised inhabitants of post-war prefabricated buildings, bungalows and chalets, with the highest mortality among the elderly. The emergency response was spontaneous and community led, with the main search and rescue completed before central government became involved. No individuals or agencies were blamed for the neglected state of the flood defences or the absence of warnings, along with the post-war shortage of adequate housing, which were the main causes of vulnerability. The media played a limited role, and television was in its infancy. Mental health impacts were either self-limiting or failed to be articulated in a society recovering from the Second World War. The major mitigating factors included the empathetic response of people, locally and nationally, as well as the availability of armed forces personnel based in East Anglia, whose actions played a decisive part in the battle against the sea. The major legacies of the Big Flood were a coastal flood forecasting system, a more scientific approach to sea defences and the building of the Thames barrier. CR *DEP HLTH, 2002, HLTH EFF CLIM CHANG *HOM OFF SCOTT OFF, 1954, REP DEP COMM COAST F ANDERSON HR, 1999, AIR POLLUTION HLTH, P461 BAXTER PJ, 2002, HLTH EFFECTS CLIMATE, P134 BAXTER PJ, 2002, HLTH EFFECTS CLIMATE, P152 GILBERT S, 1984, THAMES BARRIER GRIEVE H, 1959, GREAT TIDE HARLAND MG, 1980, FLOODING E ENGLAND LORRAINE NSR, 1954, BRIT MED J, V1, P59 MCLEOAD L, 2000, SAVAGE PLANET NOJI EK, 1997, PUBLIC HLTH CONSEQUE OHL CA, 2000, BRIT MED J, V321, P1167 PARSONS K, 2003, HUMAN THERMAL ENV POLLARD M, 1978, N SEA SURGE SCHAMA S, 2002, HIST BRIT FATE EMPIR SMITH K, 1998, FLOODS PHYS PROCESSE STEERS JA, 1953, GEOGR J, V119, P280 STEERS JA, 1979, GEOG J, V145, P192 SUMMERS D, 1978, E COAST FLOODS WEART SR, 2003, DISCOVERY GLOBAL WAR WISNER B, 2004, RISK NR 21 TC 0 J9 PHIL TRANS ROY SOC A-MATH PHY BP 1293 EP 1312 PY 2005 PD JUN 15 VL 363 IS 1831 GA 959RV UT ISI:000231536900003 ER PT J AU Chambers, LE TI Associations between climate change and natural systems in Australia SO BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY LA English DT Article C1 Bur Meteorol Res Ctr, Melbourne, Vic 3001, Australia. RP Chambers, LE, Bur Meteorol Res Ctr, GPO Box 1289, Melbourne, Vic 3001, Australia. AB In the 2001 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Third Assessment Report numerous studies of processes and species associated with regional temperature change were listed for the Northern Hemisphere (107 in North America, 458 in Europe, and 14 in Asia), but only a handful of studies for the Southern Hemisphere and, sadly, none for Australia were included. This article looks at the progress that Australia has made in addressing these knowledge gaps during the last three years. The article highlights the need for a national approach to the study of the associations between climate change and natural systems and suggests ways in which this could be achieved. CR BERGSTROM D, 2003, CLIMATE CHANGE IMPAC, P55 BOWMAN DMJS, 2001, GLOBAL ECOL BIOGEOGR, V10, P535 BRIGHAM LC, 1992, PHILOS LITERATURE, V16, P15 BUDD GM, 2000, PAP P R SOC TASMANIA, V133, P47 BULL CM, 2002, J ZOOL 3, V256, P383 CHAMBERS LE, 2005, CLIMATE RES, V29, P157 CHAMBERS LE, 2005, EMU, V105, P1 CHILCOTT C, 2002, CLIMATE CHANGE IMPAC, P63 COLLINS DA, 2000, AUST METEOROL MAG, V49, P277 FRITH HJ, 1982, WATERFOWL AUSTR GREEGOR RB, 2001, J SOL-GEL SCI TECHN, V20, P35 GREEN K, 2002, GLOBAL MOUNTAIN BIOD, P241 HOUGHTON JT, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 HUGHES L, 2000, TRENDS ECOL EVOL, V15, P56 HUGHES L, 2003, AUSTRAL ECOL, V28, P423 KEATLEY MR, 2005, P GREENHOUSE 2005 AC KINGSFORD RT, 2002, EMU, V102, P47 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 MENZEL A, 2002, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V54, P379 NICHOLLS N, 2003, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V30 NORMENT CJ, 2004, EMU, V104, P327 PARMESAN C, 1996, NATURE, V382, P765 PARMESAN C, 2003, NATURE, V421, P37 ROOT TL, 1994, P AM PHILOS SOC, V138, P377 ROOT TL, 2003, NATURE, V421, P57 SPARKS TH, 2002, INT J CLIMATOL, V22, P1715 SPARKS TH, 2002, WEATHER, V57, P157 SPARKS TH, 2002, WEATHER, V57, P399 THOMAS CD, 1999, NATURE, V399, P213 TIDEMANN CR, 1999, ACTA CHIROPTEROL, V1, P151 UMINA PA, 2005, SCIENCE, V308, P691 WALTHER GR, 2002, NATURE, V416, P389 NR 32 TC 0 J9 BULL AMER METEOROL SOC BP 201 EP + PY 2006 PD FEB VL 87 IS 2 GA 021CW UT ISI:000235962000014 ER PT J AU Sharpley, AN Tunney, H TI Phosphorus research strategies to meet agricultural and environmental challenges of the 21st century SO JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY LA English DT Article C1 ARS, USDA, Pasture Syst & Watershed Management Res Lab, University Pk, PA 16802 USA. TEGASC, Soil & Environm Res Ctr, Wexford, Ireland. RP Sharpley, AN, ARS, USDA, Pasture Syst & Watershed Management Res Lab, University Pk, PA 16802 USA. AB The accumulation, management, and transfer of P in intensive farming systems has increased P export from agricultural watersheds and accelerated eutrophication of surface waters. Even though much research on P has been done in the last 20 years, there are still too few answers to the many questions now being asked regarding agricultural production;md environmental quality, To address these concerns, four areas of research are suggested: (i) Soil P testing for environmental risk assessment-What losses are acceptable and arm these losses be determined by plot-scale or watershed-scale studies? Threshold P levers in soil and water should be established in combination with an assessment of site vulnerability to P loss. (ii) Pathways of P transport-An analysis of the relative importance of different flow pathways is needed at a watershed scale, (iii) Best Management Practice (BMP) development and implementation-Overall, BMPs must attempt to bring P inputs rand outputs into closer balance and should be targeted first to critical source areas within a watershed. Alternative management recommendations, uses, and market demand for manures must be developed. (iv) Strategic initiatives to manage P-To initiate lasting changes, research should focus on consumer-supported programs that encourage farmer performance and stewardship to achieve agreed-upon environmental goals. 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RP Schnur, R, Max Planck Inst Meteorol, Bundesstr 55, D-20146 Hamburg, Germany. CR EASTERLING DR, 2000, SCIENCE, V289, P2068 HOUGHTON JT, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 KHARIN VV, 2000, J CLIMATE, V13, P3760 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 MEEHL GA, 2000, B AM METEOROL SOC, V81, P413 MILLY PCD, 2002, NATURE, V415, P514 PALMER TN, 2000, REP PROG PHYS, V63, P71 PALMER TN, 2002, NATURE, V415, P512 NR 8 TC 10 J9 NATURE BP 483 EP 484 PY 2002 PD JAN 31 VL 415 IS 6871 GA 516PQ UT ISI:000173564300027 ER PT J AU OBrien, KL TI Are we missing the point? Global environmental change as an issue of human security SO GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS LA English DT Editorial Material C1 Univ Oslo, Dept Sociol & Human Geog, N-0316 Oslo, Norway. RP OBrien, K, Univ Oslo, Dept Sociol & Human Geog, N-0316 Oslo, Norway. CR *GECHS, 1999, GLOB ENV CHANG HUM S *MILL EC ASS, 2005, EC HUM WELLB SYNTH CUTTER SL, 2005, UNDERSTANDING KATRIN EMANUEL K, 2005, NATURE, V436, P686 FISCHETTI M, 2001, SCI AM OCT, P77 FORSYTH T, 2003, CRITICAL POLITICAL E LEICHENKO RM, 2006, IN PRESS DOUBLE EXPO LOMBORG B, 2005, GLOBAL CRISES GLOBAL LONGLEY PA, 2005, GEOGRAPHIC INFORM SY OBRIEN KL, 2003, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V93, P89 OBRIEN KL, 2005, AVISO, V15 SCHAR C, 2004, NATURE, V427, P332 SEAGER J, 2005, CHICAGO HERALD SEP STEFFEN W, 2004, GLOBAL CHANGE EARTH STOTT PA, 2004, NATURE, V432, P610 STROEVE JC, 2005, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V32 NR 16 TC 2 J9 GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANGE BP 1 EP 3 PY 2006 PD FEB VL 16 IS 1 GA 013QP UT ISI:000235424500001 ER PT J AU Perez, RT Amadore, LA Feir, RB TI Climate change impacts and responses in the Philippines coastal sector SO CLIMATE RESEARCH LA English DT Article C1 PAGASA, Quezon City 1104, Philippines. NAMRIA, DENR, CGSD, Manila, Philippines. RP Perez, RT, PAGASA, Agham Rd, Quezon City 1104, Philippines. AB The Manila Bay coastal area in The Philippines was evaluated for the possible consequences of accelerated sea level rise in the context of climate change and to assess adaptive responses to such threats. The coastal area is an important region in terms of commercial, industrial, agricultural, and aquacultural activities of The Philippines. Results show that areas along the coast if inundated by a 1 m sea level rise would include coastal barangays from 19 municipalities of Metro Manila, Bulacan, and Cavite and would cover an area of 5555 ha. Proposed response strategies consist of protecting the coast by building sea walls; institutional actions such as formulation of setback policies and construction regulations; and adaptive planning in the context of an integrated coastal zone management to address the short- and long-term problems, with the involvement of communities in the area. Information, education, and communication are essential along with the technical and scientific efforts to achieve a well-balanced adaptation plan. CR *DEP ENV NAT RES, 1996, PHIL ENV QUAL REP 19 *I CLIM ENV EN, 1997, REP SOC EC STUD MAN *IPCC, 1990, SEA LEV RIS CLIM CHA *NAT STAT OFF, 1990, PHIL STAT YB *US BUR FISH AQ RE, 1994, ANN REP 1993 *USAID DOH, 1993, LOOK PHIL POP SOC RE CARANDANG E, 1989, STUDY VARIATION SEA LEATHERMAN SP, 1995, J COASTAL RES, V14, P15 PEREZ RT, 1996, WATER AIR SOIL POLL, V92, P137 PIMENTEL AQ, 1993, LOCAL GOVT CODE 1991 POST JC, 1996, WORLD BANK MONOGRAPH, V9 WHITE AT, 1989, COASTAL ZONE MANAGEM NR 12 TC 0 J9 CLIMATE RES BP 97 EP 107 PY 1999 PD AUG 27 VL 12 IS 2-3 GA V3096 UT ISI:000171723000007 ER PT J AU Finlayson, CM TI Coastal, wetlands and climate change: the role of governance and science SO AQUATIC CONSERVATION-MARINE AND FRESHWATER ECOSYSTEMS LA English DT Article C1 Environm Res Inst Supervising Scientist, Jabiru, NT 0886, Australia. RP Finlayson, CM, Environm Res Inst Supervising Scientist, Locked Bag 2, Jabiru, NT 0886, Australia. CR WATSON RT, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, V1, P1 BAYLISS BL, 1998, 123 SUP SCI GROUP ELIOT I, IN PRESS WETLANDS EC FINLAYSON CM, IN PRESS WETLANDS EC FINLAYSON CM, 1988, CONSERVATION AUSTR W, P103 FINLAYSON CM, 1990, WETLANDS RIVER CORRI, P90 FINLAYSON CM, 1991, ED MANAGMENT WETLAND, P109 FINLAYSON CM, 1993, WETLANDS WORLD, V1, P195 FINLAYSON CM, 1995, 101 SUP SCI GROUP FINLAYSON CM, 1995, 101 SUP SCI GROUP, P2 FINLAYSON CM, 1996, GEOBOTANT, V23, P1 FINLAYSON CM, 1996, P 6 M C CONTR PART T, P32 FINLAYSON CM, 1997, WETLANDS ECOL MANAGE, V5, P19 FINLAYSON CM, 1998, REGIONAL REV WETLAND FINLAYSON CM, 1998, WETLANDS DRY LAND UN, P299 FINLAYSON CM, 1999, 133 OFF SUP SCI JONAUSKAS P, 1996, P WETL WORKSH MAK MU KAY R, 1993, VULNERABILITY ASSESS, P237 KENCHINGTON R, 1994, P COAST COAST 94 NAT STORRS MJ, 1997, 116 SUP SCI GROUP SUPPIAH R, 1998, CLIMATE CHANGE ENHAN WASSON RJ, 1992, 6 SUP SCI ALL RIV RE WOODROFFE CD, 1986, GEOMORPHOLOGICAL DYN WOODROFFE CD, 1993, GEOMORPHOLOGY LOWER WOODROOFFE CD, 1985, COASTS TIDAL WETLAND, P17 NR 25 TC 0 J9 AQUAT CONSERV BP 621 EP 626 PY 1999 PD NOV-DEC VL 9 IS 6 GA 271LC UT ISI:000084594200021 ER PT J AU Dessai, S Hulme, M TI Does climate adaptation policy need probabilities? SO CLIMATE POLICY LA English DT Review C1 Univ E Anglia, Sch Environm Sci, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. RP Dessai, S, Univ E Anglia, Sch Environm Sci, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. AB Estimating the likelihood of future climate change has become a priority objective within the research community. This is the case because of the advancement of science, because of user demand and because of the central role played by climate prediction in guiding adaptation policy. But are probabilities what climate policy really needs? This article reviews three key questions: (1) Why might we (not) need probabilities of climate change? (2) What are the problems in estimating probabilities? (3) How are researchers estimating probabilities? These questions are analysed within the context of adaptation to climate change. Overall, we conclude that the jury is still out on whether probabilities are useful for climate adaptation policy. The answer is highly context dependent and thus is a function of the goals and motivation of the policy analysis, the unit of analysis, timescale and the training of the analyst. Probability assessment in the context of climate change is always subjective, conditional and provisional. There are various problems in estimating the probability of future climate change, but reflexive human behaviour (i.e. actions explicitly influenced by information) is largely intractable in the context of prediction. Nonetheless, there is considerable scope to develop novel methodologies that combine conditional probabilities with scenarios and which are relevant for climate decision-making. 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P451 WILLIAMS LJ, 1998, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V39, P111 WILLOWS RI, 2003, CLIMATE ADAPTATION R WOLFE AK, 2001, ENV IMPACT ASSESSMEN YOHE GW, 1999, MITIGATION ADAPTATIO, V4, P319 ZAPERT R, 1998, ENERG ECON, V20, P571 ZENG LX, 2000, B AM METEOROL SOC, V81, P2075 ZIERVOGEL G, 2004, AGR SYST, P82 NR 126 TC 0 J9 CLIM POLICY BP 107 EP 128 PY 2004 VL 4 IS 2 GA 892TM UT ISI:000226672900002 ER PT J AU Tao, FL Yokozawa, M Xu, YL Hayashi, Y Zhang, Z TI Climate changes and trends in phenology and yields of field crops in China, 1981-2000 SO AGRICULTURAL AND FOREST METEOROLOGY LA English DT Article C1 Univ Tsukuba, Inst Geosci, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 3058571, Japan. Chinese Acad Agr Sci, Inst Agr Environm & Sustainable Dev, Beijing 100081, Peoples R China. Natl Inst Agroenvironm Sci, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 3058604, Japan. RP Tao, FL, Univ Tsukuba, Inst Geosci, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 3058571, Japan. AB A warming trend has become pronounced since the 1980s in China and is projected to accelerate in the future. Concerns about the vulnerability of agricultural production to climate change are increasing. The impact of future climate change on crop production has been widely predicted by using crop models and climate change scenarios, but little evidence of the observed impacts of climate change on crop production has been reported. In this study, we synthesized crop and climate data from representative stations across China during 1981-2000 to investigate whether there were significant trends in changes of climate variables in different regions, and whether theses changes have had significant impact on the development and production of the staple crops (i.e. rice, wheat, and maize). Our results showed that significant warming trends were observed at most of the investigated stations, and the changes in temperature have shifted crop phenology and affected crop yields during the two decades. The observed climate change patterns, as well their impacts on crop phenology and yields are spatially diverse across China. Our study also highlights the need for further investigations of the combined impacts of temperature and CO2 concentration on physiological processes and mechanisms governing crop growth and production. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 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Res Inst Soil Sci & Agrochem, RO-71331 Bucharest, Romania. RP Cuculeanu, V, Natl Inst Meteorol & Hydrol, Sos Bucuresti Ploiesti 97, RO-71552 Bucharest, Romania. AB The aim of this paper is to assess the potential effects of climate change on development, grain yield, and water balance for the main agricultural crops at 5 typical sites located in one of the most vulnerable zones of Romania. In addition, the paper evaluates possible adaptation measures of crop management to future climate changes. The vulnerability assessments focused on winter wheat and maize crops due to the particular importance of these crops in the cultivated areas and the difference in the genetic type of these crops reflected in their distinct physiological responses to CO2 concentration level (winter wheat is a C-3 crop, while maize is a C-4 crop). Outputs from 2 equilibrium 2 x CO2 general circulation models were used to develop climate change scenarios. CERES simulation models, linked with a seasonal analysis program included in the dedicated software DSSAT v3.0, were run for 30 yr with baseline climate and climate change scenarios. The results of crop simulations under climate change scenarios indicated that winter wheat benefits from the interaction of double CO2 concentrations and higher temperatures, while irrigated maize in southern Romania shows negative responses to climate change. The adverse impact of climate change on the maize crop can be lessened by using a longer maturing hybrid, sowing in the last week of April, applying a plant density of 5 plants m(-2), and increasing fertilization levels. CR *US COUNTR STUD MA, 1994, PO63 US COUNTR STUD BENIOFF R, 1996, VULNERABILITY ADAPTA GENG S, 1988, 204 U CAL DEP AGR RA GODWIN DC, 1989, USERS GUIDE CERES WH GOUDRIAAN J, 1990, ASA SPEC PUBL, V53, P111 RITCHIE JT, 1989, USERS GUIDE CERES MA SIMOTA C, 1997, COUNTRY STUDY CLIMAT TSUJI GI, 1994, DSSAT V3 0, V1 TSUJI GI, 1994, DSSAT V3 0, V2 TSUJI GI, 1994, DSSAT V3 0, V3 VANDEGEIJIN SC, 1993, CLIMATE CHANGE CROPS NR 11 TC 7 J9 CLIMATE RES BP 153 EP 160 PY 1999 PD AUG 27 VL 12 IS 2-3 GA V3096 UT ISI:000171723000013 ER PT J AU Caldwell, LK TI Is humanity destined to self-destruct? SO POLITICS AND THE LIFE SCIENCES LA English DT Article C1 Indiana Univ, Bloomington, IN 47405 USA. RP Caldwell, LK, Indiana Univ, Bloomington, IN 47405 USA. AB As the twentieth century ends, we may identify both constructive and destructive trends that will influence the future of humanity. Which set of trends will dominate the future is uncertain. Attitudes, beliefs, and behaviors all interact to direct the flow of change over time. However, the options and constraints of human life are ultimately fixed by those cosmic elements of the environment over which humans have no control. The modern assumption of a world without end or limits risks collision with that obdurate reality. Facing threats to its long-term survival, humanity is challenged to learn how to build a sustainable future. A successful effort will require a concerted and cooperative effort among all fields of knowledge. This article identifies some of the trends that threaten humanity's future and suggests four lines of action that should be pursued in order to reduce the likelihood that humanity will destroy itself. 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CR 1975, GREAT LAKES BASIN FR 1979, AUG P WORKSH EN CARB 1981, GREAT LAKES DIVERSIO 1981, JOINT WMO ICSU UNEP 1981, LAKE ERIE WATER LEVE 1982, CARBON DIOXIDE CLIMA 1983, CAN WE DELAY GREENHO 1983, TR006 DOENBB0040 US 1984, 84003 ENV STUD ASS D 1984, POTENTIAL CLIMATIC I AUSUBEL JH, 1980, INT I APPLIED SYSTEM, V10 AUSUBEL JH, 1983, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V5, P7 BACH W, 1979, 1978 P INT C BERL BACH W, 1984, OUR THREATENED CLIMA BACH W, 1984, PROG PHYS GEOG, V8, P583 BRUCE JP, 1984, J GREAT LAKES RES, V10, P126 CHEN RS, 1983, SOCIAL SCI RES CLIMA CLARK WC, 1982, CARBON DIOXIDE REV 1 CLARK WC, 1985, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V7, P5 COHEN SJ, 1985, CAN GEOGR, V29, P113 DECOOKE BG, 1984, CANADIAN WATER RESOU, V9, P1 GLANTZ MH, 1984, ENVIRON CONSERV, V11, P123 IDSO SB, 1982, CARBON DIOXIDE FRIEN IDSO SB, 1984, NATURE, V312, P51 JAGER J, 1983, CLIMATE ENERGY SYSTE JOHNSTONE KJ, 1984, 843 CAN CLIM CTR REP KATES RW, UNPUB CLIMATE IMPACT KELLOGG WW, 1981, CLIMATE CHANGE SOC MATHER J, 1978, CLIMATIC WATER BALAN MILLER JR, 1980, PROSPECTS MAN CLIMAT PALUTIKOF JP, 1984, TR012 DOEEV100985 US QUINN FH, 1981, IFYGL INT FIELD YEAR, P221 RICHARDS TL, 1969, 12TH P C GREAT LAK R, P469 SEWELL WRD, 1984, 8412 CAN CLIM CTR RE SLATER LE, 1981, AM ASS ADV SCI SELEC, V62 THORNES JE, 1981, PROGR PHYSICAL GEOGR, V5, P429 WILSON JW, 1981, IFYGL INT FIELD YEAR NR 37 TC 67 J9 CLIMATIC CHANGE BP 135 EP 153 PY 1986 PD APR VL 8 IS 2 GA A9771 UT ISI:A1986A977100003 ER PT J AU Holling, CS TI Understanding the complexity of economic, ecological, and social systems SO ECOSYSTEMS LA English DT Review C1 Univ Florida, Dept Zool, Gainesville, FL 32611 USA. RP Holling, CS, Univ Florida, Dept Zool, Gainesville, FL 32611 USA. AB Hierarchies and adaptive cycles comprise the basis of ecosystems and social-ecological systems across scales. Together they form a panarchy. The panarchy describes how a healthy system can invent and experiment, benefiting from inventions that create opportunity while being kept safe from those that destabilize because of their nature or excessive exuberance. Each level is allowed to operate at its own pace, protected from above by slower, larger levels but invigorated from below by faster, smaller cycles of innovation. The whole panarchy is therefore both creative and conserving. The interactions between cycles in a panarchy combine learning with continuity. An analysis of this process helps to clarify the meaning of "sustainable development." Sustainability is the capacity to create, test, and maintain adaptive capability. Development is the process of creating, testing, and maintaining opportunity. The phrase that combines the two, "sustainable development," thus refers to the goal of fostering adaptive capabilities and creating opportunities. It is therefore not an oxymoron but a term that describes a logical partnership. 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RP Kennish, MJ, Rutgers State Univ, Inst Marine & Coastal Sci, New Brunswick, NJ 08901 USA. AB Estuaries exhibit a wide array of human impacts that can compromise their ecological integrity, because of rapid population growth and uncontrolled development in many coastal regions worldwide. Long-term environmental problems plaguing estuaries require remedial actions to improve the viability and health of these valuable coastal systems. Detailed examination of the effects of pollution inputs, the loss and alteration of estuarine habitat, and the role of other anthropogenic stress indicates that water quality in estuaries, particularly urbanized systems, is often compromised by the overloading of nutrients and organic matter, the influx of pathogens, and the accumulation of chemical contaminants. In addition, the destruction of fringing wetlands and the loss and alteration of estuarine habitats usually degrade biotic communities. Estuaries are characterized by high population densities of microbes, plankton, benthic flora and fauna, and nekton; however, these organisms tend to be highly vulnerable to human activities in coastal watersheds and adjoining embayments. Trends suggest that by 2025 estuaries will be most significantly impacted by habitat loss and alteration associated with a burgeoning coastal population, which is expected to approach six billion people. Habitat destruction has far reaching ecological consequences, modifying the structure, function, and controls of estuarine ecosystems and contributing to the decline of biodiversity. Other anticipated high priority problems are excessive nutrient and sewage inputs to estuaries, principally from land-based sources. These inputs will lead to the greater incidence of eutrophication as well as hypoxia and anoxia. During the next 25 years, overfishing is expected to become a more pervasive and significant anthropogenic factor, also capable of mediating global-scale change to estuaries. Chemical contaminants, notably synthetic organic compounds, will remain a serious problem, especially in heavily industrialized areas. Freshwater diversions appear to be an emerging global problem as the expanding coastal population places greater demands on limited freshwater supplies for agricultural, domestic, and industrial needs. Altered freshwater flows could significantly affect nutrient loads, biotic community structure, and the trophodynamics of estuarine systems. Ecological impacts that will be less threatening, but still damaging, are those caused by introduced species, sea level rise, coastal subsidence, and debris/litter. Although all of these disturbances can alter habitats and contribute to shifts in the composition of estuarine biotic communities, the overall effect will be partial changes to these ecosystem components. Several strategies may mitigate future impacts. 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ENVIRON POLLUT, V88, P91 WILLIAMS GD, 2001, HDB RESTORING TIDAL, P235 WINDOM HL, 1992, MAR POLLUT BULL, V25, P32 WOLANSKI E, 1996, J MARINE SYST, V7, P267 WREN CD, 1995, HDB ECOTOXICOLOGY, P392 WRIGHT LD, 1995, MORPHODYNAMICS INNER WUEBBLES DJ, 1999, ENVIRON POLLUT, V100, P57 YAP HT, 1992, MAR POLLUT BULL, V25, P37 ZEDLER JB, 1996, ECOL APPL, V6, P84 ZEDLER JB, 1999, RESTOR ECOL, V7, P69 ZEDLER JB, 2001, HDB RESTORING TIDAL NR 180 TC 5 J9 ENVIRON CONSERV BP 78 EP 107 PY 2002 PD MAR VL 29 IS 1 GA 557TJ UT ISI:000175924000006 ER PT J AU Gaiser, T de Barros, I Lange, FM Williams, JR TI Water use efficiency of a maize/cowpea intercrop on a highly acidic tropical soil as affected by liming and fertilizer application SO PLANT AND SOIL LA English DT Article C1 Univ Hohenheim, Inst Soil Sci & Land Evaluat, D-70593 Stuttgart, Germany. CIRAD, F-34398 Montpellier 5, France. Texas Agr Exptl Stn, Temple, TX USA. RP Gaiser, T, Univ Hohenheim, Inst Soil Sci & Land Evaluat, D-70593 Stuttgart, Germany. AB Due to global warming, there is a need to increase the water use efficiency of crops under rainfed agriculture, particularly in semi-arid regions. Therefore, the effect of NPK fertilizer application (with or without liming) on the water use efficiency of a maize/cowpea intercropping system was investigated in the semi-arid part of Brazil. The crops were grown on a strongly acidic, sandy soil with three treatments: (i) Complete NPK fertilizer application with lime (Compl), (ii) Complete NPK fertilizer application without lime (Compl-L) and (iii) Control. On the average, dry matter production was 2.6 times higher with the Compl treatment than in the Control and 1.6 times higher than in the Compl-L treatment. The soil water balance was calculated with two different model approaches (HILLFLOW and EPICSEAR). When checked against measured soil water content during the growing period, both models produced accurate results, but only EPICSEAR was sensitive to the effects of liming and fertilizer application on soil water balance and dry matter production at this site. Comparison between the Compl and the Compl-L treatments shows that the increase in transpirational water use efficiency (WUET) (+63 and +80%, respectively) is mainly due to the application of NPK. Although the site is highly acid, liming was of minor importance for increasing the WUET. However, observations and simulations demonstrate that, through the additional application of lime, the gross water use efficiency (WUEC) in a maize/cowpea intercropping system can be increased by 60% compared to sole application of NPK and by more than 160% compared to the control. CR *EMBRAPA, 1981, SIST CLASS SOL 2A AP *FAO, 1988, 60 FAO MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 *USDA, USDA TECHN B, V1768 *USDA, 1990, EPIC ER PROD IMP CAL BRONSTERT A, 1995, MODELLSYSTEM HILLFLO COOPER PJM, 1987, FIELD CROP RES, V16, P67 DEBARROS I, 2002, 64 U HOH I BOD STAND ECK HV, 1988, AGRON J, V80, P902 GAISER T, 2000, AUST J SOIL RES, V38, P523 GREGORY PJ, 1988, CHALLENGES DRYLAND A, P171 GREGORY PJ, 1989, SOIL CROP WATER MANA, P85 HUNDEKAR ST, 1999, FERT NEWS, V44, P59 KLAPP E, 1962, Z KULTURTECH, V3, P1 PAPULA A, 1982, MATH CHEMIKER PAYNE WA, 1992, CROP SCI, V32, P1010 SABOYA LMF, 2002, NEOTR EC P GERM BRAZ SCHULZE E, 1957, Z ACKER PFLANZENBAU, V103, P22 SHIKLOMANOV I, 2001, INT HYDROLOGICAL SER SINCLAIR TR, 1984, BIOSCIENCE, V34, P36 SIVAKUMAR MVK, 1999, J AGR SCI 2, V132, P139 VEGH KR, 1998, ACTA AGRON HUNG, V46, P35 ZAONGO CGL, 1997, PLANT SOIL, V197, P119 NR 23 TC 3 J9 PLANT SOIL BP 165 EP 171 PY 2004 PD JUN VL 263 IS 1-2 GA 876ZK UT ISI:000225537400015 ER PT J AU Litfin, KT TI Constructing environmental security and ecological interdependence SO GLOBAL GOVERNANCE LA English DT Article C1 Univ Washington, Seattle, WA 98195 USA. RP Litfin, KT, Univ Washington, Seattle, WA 98195 USA. 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Univ E Anglia, Sch Dev Studies, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. Univ E Anglia, Tyndall Ctr Climate Change Res, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. RP Adger, WN, Univ E Anglia, Sch Environm Sci, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. 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CR 1995, ENVIRONMENT MAR, P3 *FAO, 1984, LAND FOOD PEOPL *US NAT RES COUNC, 1995, MEX CIT WAT SUPPL IM *WORLD WID FUND NA, 1996, 94 CENT WORLDS FOR U ADAMS RM, 1965, LAND BEHIND BAGHDAD AUSUBEL J, 1989, TECHNOLOGY ENV AUSUBEL J, 1996, TECHNOLOGICAL TRAJEC BROOKFIELD H, 1995, ENV SOCIOECONOMIC TR CLARK WC, 1986, SUSTAINABLE DEV BIOS COHEN J, 1994, COLLAPSE CULTURE DIS COHEN JE, 1995, MANY PEOPLE CAN EART, P419 COMMONER B, 1972, CLOSING CIRCLE NATUR DOUGLAS M, 1982, RISK CULTURE EHRLICH PR, 1971, SCIENCE, V171, P1212 EHRLICH PR, 1975, POPULATION BOMMB, P58 EZCURRA E, 1996, ENVIRONMENT, V6, P1 FABER M, 1992, ENVIRON VALUE, V1, P217 FEARNSIDE PM, 1989, ECOLOGIST, V19, P214 GLANTZ MH, 1990, SCIENCES, V20, P16 HARDIN G, 1968, SCIENCE, V162, P1243 HIGGINS GM, 1983, POTENTIAL POPULATION HOLDREN JP, 1974, AM SCIENT, V62, P282 IVES JD, 1989, HIMALAYAN DILEMMA RE KASPERSON JX, 1995, REGIONS RISK, V1, P1 KATES RW, 1985, PERILOUS PROGR MANAG KATES RW, 1996, ENVIRONMENT MAR, P6 KOCHUROV B, 1991, DEFINING MAPPING CRI, P63 KOTLYAKOV VM, 1991, ENVIRONMENT JAN, P4 MARSH GP, 1864, MAN NATURE PHYSICAL MATHER JR, 1991, GLOBAL CHANGE GEOGRA, P159 MATHEWS JT, 1993, THREATS ENEMEIES FAC, P36 MEADOWS DH, 1972, LIMITS GROWTH MEADOWS DH, 1992, LIMITS CONFRONTING G MEYER WB, 1992, ANNU REV ECOL SYST, V23, P39 MEYER WB, 1992, GEOGRAPHYS INNER WOR, P255 MEYER WB, 1996, HUMAN IMPACT EARTH, P23 MICKLIN P, 1988, SCIENCE, V241, P470 MORTIMORE MJ, 1994, ENVIRONMENT OCT, P10 MUMME SP, 1997, ENVIRONMENT DEC, P6 MYERS N, 1988, ENVIRONMENTALIST, V8, P187 MYERS N, 1995, SCIENCE, V269, P358 OPIE J, 1993, OGALLALA WATER DRY L PRICE MF, 1989, ENVIRONMENT OCT, P18 PUCHACHENKO YG, 1989, EKOSISTEMY KRITICHES RESTREPO I, 1992, CONTAMINACION AIRE M ROCKWELL RC, 1994, CHANGES LAND USE LAN, P357 SALOMONS W, 1988, POLLUTION N SEA ASSE SMITH NJH, 1995, AMAZONIA RESILIENCY SMITH S, REGIONS RISK, P42 STERN PC, 1992, GLOBAL ENV CHANGE UN SVEDIN U, 1987, SURPRISING FUTURES N THOMAS WL, 1956, MANS ROLE CHANGING F THOMPSON M, 1990, CULTURAL THEORY TIFFEN M, 1992, DEV POLICY REV, V10, P359 TIFFEN M, 1994, MORE PEOPLE LESS ERO TIFFEN M, 1995, ENVIRONMENT SEP, P3 TURNER BL, 1990, EARTH TRANSFORMED HU TURNER BL, 1990, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V1, P14 TURNER BL, 1994, AGR ENV HLTH SUSTAIN, P101 TURNER BL, 1995, ELEMENTS CHANGE 19 2, P130 WOODWELL GM, 1990, EARTH TRANSITION PAT, P211 NR 61 TC 7 J9 ENVIRONMENT BP 4 EP & PY 1996 PD DEC VL 38 IS 10 GA VW474 UT ISI:A1996VW47400003 ER PT J AU VITEK, JD BERTA, SM TI IMPROVING PERCEPTION OF AND RESPONSE TO NATURAL HAZARDS - THE NEED FOR LOCAL EDUCATION SO JOURNAL OF GEOGRAPHY LA English DT Article C1 UNIV OKLAHOMA,PHD PROGRAM,NORMAN,OK 73019. RP VITEK, JD, OKLAHOMA STATE UNIV,GRAD COLL,STILLWATER,OK 74078. CR BURTON I, 1964, NAT RESOUR J, V3, P412 BURTON I, 1978, ENV HAZARD, V1, P1 MURRAY WE, 1980, HAZARD MONTHLY, V1, P5 SAARINEN TF, 1966, 106 U CHIC DEP GEOGR, P138 SLOVIC P, 1974, NATURAL HAZARDS LOCA, P187 NR 5 TC 3 J9 J GEOGR BP 225 EP 228 PY 1982 VL 81 IS 6 GA RQ383 UT ISI:A1982RQ38300004 ER PT J AU Ramos, MC TI Soil water content and yield variability in vineyards of Mediterranean northeastern Spain affected by mechanization and climate variability SO HYDROLOGICAL PROCESSES LA English DT Article C1 Univ Lleida, Dept Soil & Environm Sci, Lleida 25198, Spain. RP Ramos, MC, Univ Lleida, Dept Soil & Environm Sci, Av Alcalde Rovira oure 191, Lleida 25198, Spain. AB The objective of this paper was to analyse the combined influence of the Mediterranean climate variability (particularly the irregular rainfall distribution throughout the year) and the land trans format ions carried out in vineyards of northeastern Spain on soil water content evolution and its influence on grape production. The study was carried out in a commercial vineyard located in the Anoia-Alt Penedes region (Barcelona province. northeastern Spain). which was prepared for mechanization with important land transformations. Two plots were selected for the study: one with low degree of transformation of the soil profile, representing a non-disturbed situation. and the second one in which more than 3 in were cut in the upper part of the plot and filled in the lower part. representing the disturbed situation. Soil water content was evaluated at three positions along the slope in each plot and at three depths (0-20, 20-40, 40-60 cm) during the period 1999-2001, years with different rainfall characteristics, including extreme events and long dry periods. Rainfall was recorded in the experimental field using a pluviometer linked to a data-logger. Runoff rates and yield were evaluated at the same positions. For the same annual rainfall, the season of the year in which rainfall is recorded and its intensity are critical for water availability for crops. Soil water content varies within the plot and is related to the soil characteristics existing at the different positions of the landscape. The differences in soil depth created by soil movements in the field mechanization give rise to significant yield reductions (up to 50%) between deeper and shallow areas. In addition, for the same annual rainfall, water availability for crops depends on its distribution over the year, particularly in soils with low water-storage capacity. The yield was strongly affected in years with dry or very dry winters. Copyright (c) 2005 John Wiley & Sons. Ltd. 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SO NATURAL HAZARDS LA English DT Article C1 Polish Acad Sci, Res Ctr Agr & Forest Environm, PL-60809 Poznan, Poland. Univ Cologne, Inst Geophys & Meteorol, D-50923 Cologne, Germany. Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res, D-14412 Potsdam, Germany. Free Univ Berlin, Inst Meteorol, D-12165 Berlin, Germany. RP Kundzewicz, ZW, Polish Acad Sci, Res Ctr Agr & Forest Environm, Bukowska 19, PL-60809 Poznan, Poland. AB In Central Europe, river flooding has been recently recognized as a major hazard, in particular after the 1997 Odra /Oder flood, the 2001 Vistula flood, and the most destructive 2002 deluge on the Labe/Elbe. Major recent floods in central Europe are put in perspective and their common elements are identified. Having observed that flood risk and vulnerability are likely to have grown in many areas, one is curious to understand the reasons for growth. These can be sought in socio-economic domain (humans encroaching into floodplain areas), terrestrial systems (land-cover changes - urbanization, deforestation, reduction of wetlands, river regulation), and climate system. The atmospheric capacity to absorb moisture, its potential water content, and thus potential for intense precipitation, are likely to increase in a warmer climate. The changes in intense precipitation and high flows are examined, based on observations and projections. Study of projected changes in intense precipitation, using climate models, for several areas of central Europe, and in particular, for drainage basins of the upper Labe/Elbe, Odra/Oder, and Vistula is reported. Significant changes have been identified between future projections and the reference period, of relevance to flood hazard in areas, which have experienced severe recent floodings. 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Univ Sao Paulo, Inst Oceanog, BR-05389900 Sao Paulo, SP, Brazil. RP Gasalla, MA, Inst Pesca, Av Bartolomeu Gusmao 192, BR-11030906 Santos, SP, Brazil. AB Ecosystem effects of recent changes in fishing strategies in the South Brazil Bight (SBB) area, including increasing squid catches by shrimp bottom trawlers and fishing for young sardines as bait, for the skipjack tuna pole-and-line fishery were investigated by modelling the SBB coastal ecosystem for the 1998-1999 fisheries period, using the mass-balance modelling software, Ecopath with Ecosim. Based on fisheries information and on previous models, 25 species groups were defined. The mean trophic level of all fisheries was 2.99 with small trawlers and the live baitfish fleet occupying the lowest trophic levels. The change in squid fishing rate and the most important squid predators fishing rate were simulated by increasing fishing mortality (F) from 0 to 1 per year, while maintaining F constant for other exploited groups. Also, the impact of fishing pressure by trawlers on squids and by the live baitfish fleet on young sardines were simulated. Different hypotheses of flow control were tested by setting the maximum instantaneous mortality rate that consumers could exert on food resources by (a) "top-down" control by predators (predator control); (b) all interactions of mixed control type; and (c) "bottom-up" control of predators by their prey (donor control). For squid, predicted biomass changes were more pronounced under top-down control that under bottom-up. Biomass of the weakfish, which are important squid predators, were the most affected under all hypotheses. A similar pattern of decrease in other squid predators was seen. The ecosystem consequence of overexploiting weakfish and large pelagic fish biomass was speculated regarding the increasing squid catches. Simulations of increasing live-baitfish fleet did not show prominent impact in the inner shelf, where present F values are low. Given young sardines concentrate in shallow waters, where the conflicts converge, a complementary model of the adjacent coastal system and artisanal fisheries could better address fleet's impact. Nevertheless, it was noted a decrease of sharks and rays reflecting their vulnerability in the system. A precautionary measure for fisheries management in the region would be to assume that top-down control is a dominant force in energy flows, differing from the custom emphasis placed only in environmental forces and productivity. The ecosystem approach will require the integration of information from a wide range of disciplines, levels of ecological organization and temporal and spatial scales, as well as concrete management measures. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 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778EM UT ISI:000189226500011 ER PT J AU Alvarez, NL NaughtonTreves, L TI Linking national agrarian policy to deforestation in the Peruvian Amazon: A case study of Tambopata, 1986-1997 SO AMBIO LA English DT Article C1 Univ Puerto Rico, Dept Biol, San Juan, PR 00931 USA. Univ Wisconsin, Dept Geog, Madison, WI 53706 USA. CI, Ctr Appl Biodivers Sci, Washington, DC USA. RP Alvarez, NL, Univ Puerto Rico, Dept Biol, POB 23360, San Juan, PR 00931 USA. AB Amazonian deforestation rates vary regionally, and ebb and flow according to macroeconomic policy and local social factors. We used remote sensing and field interviews to investigate deforestation patterns and drivers at a Peruvian frontier during 1986-1991, when rural credit and guaranteed markets were available; and 1991-1997, when structural adjustment measures were imposed. The highest rate of clearing (1.5% gross) was observed along roads during 1986-1991. Roadside deforestation slowed in 1991-1997 (0.7% gross) and extensive regrowth yielded a net increase in forest cover (0.5%). Deforestation along rivers was relatively constant. Riverside farms today retain more land in both crops and forest than do roadside farms where pasture and successional growth predominate. Long-term residents maintain more forest on their farms than do recent colonists, but proximity to urban markets is the strongest predictor of forest cover. Future credit programs must reflect spatial patterns of development and ecological vulnerability, and support the recuperation of fallow lands and secondary forest. CR *ERDAS INC, 2000, ERDAS IM *FAO, 2000, FOR RES ASS 2000 *GESUREMAD, 1998, DIAGN DEP MADR DOS G ALVAREZ N, 2001, DEFORESTATION SE PER ASCORRA C, 1999, ZONA RESERVADA TAMBO BINSWANGER H, 1989, BRAZILIAN POLICIES E BROWDER JO, 1994, STUD COMP INT DEV, V29, P45 CAMPBELL C, 1998, IFPRI WORKSH GEND IN CHICCHON A, 1994, SUBSISTENCE SYSTEM I CHICCHON A, 1997, PROBLEMA AGRARIO DEB, P551 CHICCHON A, 2000, CONSERV BIOL, V14, P138 COOMES OT, 1995, FOREST CONSERVATION, V39, P108 COOMES OT, 1996, WORLD DEV, V24, P1333 CORLETT RT, 1995, PROG PHYS GEOG, V19, P159 FOSTER R, 1994, TAMBOPATA CANDAMO RE GOMEZ R, 1998, GEOLOGIA DESARROLLO, P369 HASHIBA H, 2000, ADV SPACE RES, V26, P1069 HECHT S, IN PRESS WORLD DEV HECHT S, 1989, FATE FOREST IMBERNON J, 1999, AMBIO, V28, P509 LABARTHE H, 1990, SYSTEM SUSTAINABLE D LAURANCE WF, 2001, SCIENCE, V291, P438 MORAN EF, 1994, BIOSCIENCE, V44, P329 NAUGHTONTREVES L, 2002, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V92, P488 RICALDE D, 1993, PERUVIAN CASTANEROS RODRIGUEZ LO, 2000, AMBIO, V29, P329 SCHMINK M, 1992, CONSTESTED FRONTIERS SKOLE D, 1993, SCIENCE, V260, P1905 SKOLE DL, 1994, BIOSCIENCE, V44, P314 SMITH JB, 2001, WORLD FORESTS MARKET STEININGER MK, IN PRESS LARGE SCALE STEININGER MK, 2001, ENVIRON CONSERV, V28, P127 VARCARCEL M, 1993, MADRE DIOS ESPACIO F WOOD C, 1998, PEOPLE PIXELS LINKIN WOODWELL GM, 1991, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V19, P245 NR 35 TC 1 J9 AMBIO BP 269 EP 274 PY 2003 PD JUN VL 32 IS 4 GA 709WQ UT ISI:000184649900005 ER PT J AU Harden, CP TI Human impacts on headwater fluvial systems in the northern and central Andes SO GEOMORPHOLOGY LA English DT Article C1 Univ Tennessee, Dept Geog, Knoxville, TN 37996 USA. RP Harden, CP, Univ Tennessee, Dept Geog, 304 Burchfiel Geog Bldg, Knoxville, TN 37996 USA. AB South America delivers more freshwater runoff to the ocean per km(2) land area than any other continent, and much of that water enters the fluvial system from headwaters in the Andes Mountains. This paper reviews ways in which human occupation of high mountain landscapes in the Andes have affected the delivery of water and sediment to headwater river channels at local to regional scales for millennia, and provides special focus on the vulnerability of paramo soils to human impact. People have intentionally altered the fluvial system by damming rivers at a few strategic locations, and more widely by withdrawing surface water, primarily for irrigation. Unintended changes brought about by human activities are even more widespread and include forest clearance, agriculture, grazing, road construction, and urbanization, which increase rates of rainfall runoff and accelerate processes of water erosion. Some excavations deliver more sediment to river channels by destabilizing slopes and triggering processes of mass-movement. The northern and central Andes are more affected by human activity than most high mountain regions. The wetter northern Andes are also unusual for the very high water retention characteristics of paramo (high elevation grass and shrub) soils, which cover most of the land above 3000 m. Paramo soils are important regulators of headwater hydrology, but human activities that promote vegetation loss and drying cause them to lose water storage capacity. New data from a case study in southern Ecuador show very low bulk densities (median 0.26 g cm(-3)), high organic matter contents (median 43%), and high water-holding capacities (12% to 86% volumetrically). These data document wetter soils under grass than under tree cover. Effects of human activity on the fluvial system are evident at local scales, but difficult to discern at broader scales in the regional context of geomorphic adjustment to tectonic and volcanic processes. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 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Columbia Univ, NASA, Goddard Inst Space Studies, New York, NY USA. RP Solecki, WD, CUNY Hunter Coll, Dept Geog, 695 Pk Ave, New York, NY 10021 USA. AB The objectives of this article were to assess the dimensions of biodiversity-urban society interactions within the New York Metropolitan Region, a 31-county area with a population of 21.5 million, and to explore pathways to reconcile dysfunctional relationships between these two ever-entwined systems. The article builds on the premise that urban biodiversity exists at a crucial nexus of ecological and societal interactions, linking local, regional, and global scales, and that urban ecologies are projected to become even more dynamic in the future, particularly as a result of global climate change. The pathway proposed to reconcile the biodiversity-urban society relationships is the incorporation of biosphere reserve strategies into regional environmental planning efforts focused on the New York/New Jersey Harbor/Estuary specifically and on the greater New York Metropolitan Region in general. The concepts of the "ecological footprint" and vulnerability to global environmental change are used to analyze the current interactions between biodiversity and urban society, and to evaluate the efficacy of adopting biosphere reserve strategies in the region. New York has long been at the forefront of American environmentalism and landscape planning. Coupled with this history is a still small but growing interest in regional environmental planning efforts (e.g., the U.S. EPA Harbor Estuary Program) and green infrastructure (e.g., the 2002 Humane Metropolis Conference organized by the Ecological Cities Project). The research presented here aims to contribute to these nascent activities. As a megacity, New York may serve as a model for other major cities of the world. CR *ASP GLOB CHANG I, 2001, CLIM CHANG CIT *BOARD SUST DEV PO, 1999, OUR COMM JOURN TRANS *HYDR INC, 1991, ASS POLL LOAD NY NJ *IND BUDG OFF NEW, 2001, BACKGR PAP OV WAST S *NEW YORK NEW JERS, 2001, NEW YORK NEW JERS HA *UN CTR HUM SETTL, 2001, CIT GLOB WORLD GLOB *UN POP FND, 2001, STAT WORLD POP 2001 *UNESCO, 1996, BIOSPH RES SEV STRAT *US CENS BUR, 2000, US CENS POP BENNETT M, 1994, NATURE CITIES ECOCRI FOLKE C, 1997, AMBIO, V26, P167 FREI A, 2002, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V92, P203 GORNITZ V, 1995, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V31, P515 GORNITZ V, 1995, J COASTAL RES, V17, P287 GORNITZ V, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE GLOBA GUNDERSON LH, 1995, BARRIERS BRIDGES REN, V1, P1 HARTIG E, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE GLOBA HARTIG EK, 2002, WETLANDS, V22, P1 HAUGHTON G, 1994, SUSTAINABLE CITIES JACOB KH, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE GLOBA MAJOR D, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE GLOBA PLATT R, 1994, ECOLOGICAL CITY PRES REES WE, 1992, ENVIRON URBAN, V4, P121 ROSENZWEIG C, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE GLOBA WALDMAN J, 1999, HEARTBEATS MUCK DRAM WARF B, 2000, GEOFORUM, V31, P487 WILSON EO, 1997, BIODIVERSITY, V2, P1 YARO R, 1996, REGION RISK 3 REGION ZIMMERMAN R, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE GLOBA NR 29 TC 1 J9 ANN N Y ACAD SCI BP 105 EP 124 PY 2004 VL 1023 GA BAN79 UT ISI:000223006800006 ER PT J AU Christensen, L Coughenour, MB Ellis, JE Chen, ZZ TI Vulnerability of the Asian typical steppe to grazing and climate change SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 Stanford Univ, Ctr Environm Sci & Policy, Stanford, CA 94305 USA. Colorado State Univ, Nat Resource Ecol Lab, Ft Collins, CO 80523 USA. Chinese Acad Sci, Ecol Res Ctr, Inst Bot, Beijing 100093, Peoples R China. RP Christensen, L, Stanford Univ, Ctr Environm Sci & Policy, Stanford, CA 94305 USA. AB The vulnerability of grassland vegetation in Inner Mongolia to climate change and grazing was examined using an ecosystem model. Grazing is an important form of land use in this region, yet there are uncertainties as to how it will be affected by climate change. A sensitivity analysis was conducted to study the effects of increased minimum and maximum temperatures, ambient and elevated CO2, increased or decreased precipitation, and grazing on vegetation production. Simulations showed that herbaceous above ground net primary production was most sensitive to changes in precipitation levels. Combinations of increased precipitation, temperature, and CO2 had synergistic effects on herbaceous production, however drastic increases in these climate scenarios left the system vulnerable to shifts from herbaceous to shrub-dominated vegetation when grazed. Reduced precipitation had a negative effect on vegetation growth rates, thus herbaceous growth was not sustainable with moderate grazing. Shifts in temporal biomass patterns due to changed climate have potentially significant implications for grazing management, which will need to be altered under changing climate to maintain system stability. 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Natl Ctr Atmospher Res, Environm & Societal Impacts Grp, Boulder, CO 80307 USA. No Illinois Univ, Dept Geog, De Kalb, IL 60115 USA. Univ Delaware, Dept Polit Sci, Newark, DE USA. NOAA, Off Global Programs, Silver Springs, MD USA. RP Changnon, SA, Illinois State Water Survey, Atmospher Environm Sect, 2204 Griffith Dr, Champaign, IL 61820 USA. AB Societal impacts from weather and climate extremes, and trends in those impacts, are a function of both climate and society. United States losses resulting from weather extremes have grown steadily with time. Insured property losses have trebled since 1960, but deaths from extremes have not grown except for those due to floods and heat waves. Data on losses are difficult to find and must be carefully adjusted before meaningful assessments can be made. Adjustments to historical loss data assembled since the late 1940s shows that most of the upward trends found in financial losses are due to societal shifts leading to ever-growing vulnerability to weather and climate extremes. Geographical locations of the large loss trends establish that population growth and demographic shifts are the major factors behind the increasing losses from weather-climate extremes. Most weather and climate extremes in the United States do not exhibit steady, multidecadal increases found in their loss values. Without major changes in societal responses to weather and climate extremes, it is reasonable to predict ever-increasing losses even without any detrimental climate changes. Recognition of these trends in societal vulnerability to weather-climate extremes suggests that the present focus on mitigating the greenhouse effect should be complemented by a greater emphasis on adaptation. Identifying and understanding this societal vulnerability has great importance for understanding the nation's economy, in guiding governmental policies, and for planning for future mitigative activities including ways for society to adapt to possible effects of a changing climate. CR *AM INS ASS, 1999, PROP CAS INS CLIM CH *BIP TASK FORC FUN, 1996, 1044 BIP TASK FORC F *CACNH, 1999, COSTS NAT DIS FRAM A *HEINZ STUD GROUP, 1999, HIDD COSTS COAST HAZ *IPCC, 1996, CLIM CHANG 1995 SCI CHANGNON D, 1997, J APPL METEOROL, V36, P1202 CHANGNON D, 1998, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V38, P435 CHANGNON SA, 1995, PREPARING GLOBAL CHA, P47 CHANGNON SA, 1996, B AM METEOROL SOC, V77, P1497 CHANGNON SA, 1996, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V32, P411 CHANGNON SA, 1996, GREAT FLOOD 1993, P3 CHANGNON SA, 1997, B AM METEOROL SOC, V78, P425 CHANGNON SA, 1997, P WORKSH SOC EC IMP, P19 CHANGNON SA, 1999, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V42, P51 CHANGNON SA, 1999, METEOR APPL, V5, P125 CHANGNON SA, 1999, NAT HAZARDS, V18, P287 FLAVIN C, 1994, WORLD WATCH, V7, P10 KARL TR, 1998, B AM METEOROL SOC, V79, P231 KUNKEL KE, 1999, B AM METEOROL SOC, V80, P1077 KUNREUTHER H, 1998, PAYING PRICE, P1 LARSON E, 1998, TIME, V52, P63 LECOMTE E, 1993, CLIMATE CHANGE INSUR, P13 PIELKE RA, 1995, HURRICANE ANDREW S F PIELKE RA, 1997, P WORKSH SOC EC IMP, P3 PIELKE RA, 1998, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V8, P159 PIELKE RA, 1998, WEATHER FORECAST 2, V13, P621 PIELKE RA, 1999, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V42, P118 PIELKE RA, 1999, FLOODS RIEBSAME WE, 1991, DROUGHT NATURAL RESO ROTH RJ, 1996, IMPACTS RESPONSES WE, P101 SYLVES R, 1996, DISASTER MANAGEMENT SYLVES R, 1998, DISASTERS COASTAL ZO VANDERVINK G, 1998, EOS, V79, P536 NR 33 TC 14 J9 BULL AMER METEOROL SOC BP 437 EP 442 PY 2000 PD MAR VL 81 IS 3 GA 305EB UT ISI:000086525500004 ER PT J AU Magadza, CHD TI Climate change impacts and human settlements in Africa: Prospects for adaptation SO ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING AND ASSESSMENT LA English DT Article C1 Univ Zimbabwe, Lake Kariba Res Stn, Kariba, Zimbabwe. RP Magadza, CHD, Univ Zimbabwe, Lake Kariba Res Stn, Box 48, Kariba, Zimbabwe. AB Climate change impacts on African human settlements arise from a number of climate change-related causes, notably sea level changes, impacts on water resources, extreme weather events, food security, increased health risks from vector borne diseases, and temperature-related morbidity in urban environments. Some coastlines and river deltas of Africa have densely populated low-lying areas, which would be affected by a rise in sea level. Other coastal settlements will be subjected to increased coastal erosion. Recent flooding in East Africa highlighted the vulnerability of flood plain settlements and the need to develop adaptive strategies for extreme weather events management and mitigation. In the semi arid and arid zones many settlements are associated with inland drainage water sources. Increases in drought will enhance water supply related vulnerabilities. Inter-basin and international water transfers raise the need for adequate legal frameworks that ensure equity among participating nations. Similarly, water supply and irrigation reservoirs in seasonal river catchments might fail, leading to poor sanitation in urban areas as well as food shortage. Hydroelectric power generation could be restricted in drought periods, and where it is a major contributor to the energy budget, reduced power generation could lead to a multiplicity of other impacts. States are advised to develop other sources of renewable energy. Temperature changes will lead to altered distribution of disease vectors such as mosquitoes, making settlements currently free of vector borne diseases vulnerable. Rapid breeding of the housefly could create a menace associated with enteric disorders, especially in conditions of poor sanitation. The dry savannahs of Africa are projected as possible future food deficit areas. Recurrent crop failures would lead to transmigration into urban areas. Pastoralists are likely to undertake more trans-boundary migrations and probably come into conflict with settled communities. Adaptive measures will involve methods of coastal defences (where applicable), a critical review of the energy sector, both regionally and nationally, a rigorous adherence to city hygiene procedures, an informed agricultural industry that is capable of adapting to changing climate in terms of cropping strategies, and innovations in environment design to maximise human comfort at minimum energy expenditure. In the savannah and arid areas water resource management systems will be needed to optimise water resource use and interstate co-operation where such resources are shared. Climate change issues discussed here raise the need for state support for more research and education in impacts of climate change on human settlements in Africa. CR 1992, SPORE, V39, P1 1997, MICROSOFT ENCARTER 7 CAPONERA DA, 1996, REV EUROPEAN COMMUNI, V5, P97 COUSINS B, 1996, IDS BULL-I DEV STUD, V27, P41 DELATTRE A, 1988, OECD OBSERVER, V153, P19 HULME M, 1995, CLIMATE CHANGE SO AF JALLOW BP, 1996, CLIMATE RES, V6 LADO C, 1995, INDONESIAN J GEOGRAP, V27, P31 MAGADZA CHD, 1984, ZIMBABWE SCI NEWS, V18, P63 MAGADZA CHD, 1994, FOOD POLICY, V19, P165 MAGADZA CHD, 1996, LAKE RESERVOIR RES M, V2, P89 MCMICHAEL AJ, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE HUMAN MIMURA N, 1998, GLOBAL WARMING POTEN REIBSAME WE, 1995, CLIMATE CHANGES INT SALAM AM, 1991, SCI TECHNOLOGY SCI E STRZEPEK KK, 1996, CLIMATE RES, V6 WATSON RT, 1998, REGIONAL IMPACTS CLI, V1, P1 WORLD B, 1996, ENV SUSTAINABLE DEV NR 18 TC 1 J9 ENVIRON MONIT ASSESS BP 193 EP 205 PY 2000 PD MAR VL 61 IS 1 GA 300UB UT ISI:000086270100016 ER PT J AU Kasperson, RE Kasperson, JX Turner, BL TI Risk and criticality: Trajectories of regional environmental degradation SO AMBIO LA English DT Article C1 Clark Univ, George Perkins Marsh Inst, Worcester, MA 01610 USA. RP Kasperson, RE, Clark Univ, George Perkins Marsh Inst, 950 Main St, Worcester, MA 01610 USA. AB In its 1987 report, the World Commission on Environment and Development called for a global risk-assessment program to buttress and extend the work of the United Nations Environment Programme. This article reports on an international project centered at Clark University in the United States that has explored the causes and consequences of growing environmental risk over a 50-70 year period in nine regions distributed throughout the world. The nine regions are: Amazonia, the Eastern Sundaland region of southeast Asia, the Ukambani region of southeastern Kenya, the Nepal Middle Mountains, the Ordos Plateau of China, the Aral Sea, the southern High Plains of the United States, the Mexico City region, and the North Sea. The authors begin by considering the notion of criticality and developing definitions and a classification of environmentally threatened regions. Research teams were assembled for all nine regions and studies conducted. In this article, the authors review the development of concepts and methods used in these studies and the major cross-cutting findings that emerged. They argue that a growing disjuncture exists in the studied regions between the rapid rates of environmental degradation and the slow pace of societal response, threatening environmental impoverishment and loss of options for future generations and escalating costs of substitution in resource use and risk mitigation efforts. CR *NAT GEOGR SOC, 1989, END EARTH *WORLD COMM ENV DE, 1987, OUR COMM FUT, P325 AGUILAR AG, 1995, REGIONS RISK COMP TH, P304 ARGENT J, REGIONS RISK COMP TH, P367 BLAIKIE PM, 1987, LAND DEGRADATION SOC BROOKFIELD H, 1995, PLACE FOREST ENV SOC BROOKS E, 1995, REGIONS RISK COMP TH, P255 BROOKS E, 1999, LLANO ESTACADO US SO CHAMBERS R, 1989, FARMER 1 FARMER INNO EHRLICH PR, 1971, SCIENCE, V171, P1212 EZCURRA E, 1999, BASIN MEXICO CRITICA FUCHS R, 1999, 199 IHDP, P2 GLAZOVSKY NF, 1995, REGIONS RISK COMP TH, P92 GLEICK PH, 1998, WORLDS WATER 1988 19 HOLDREN JP, 1974, AM SCIENT, V62, P282 JIANG H, 1995, REGIONS RISK COMP TH, P420 JIANG H, 1999, IN PRESS ORDOS PLATE JODHA NS, 1995, REGIONS RISK COMP TH, P140 KASPERSON JX, IN PRESS GLOBAL ENV KASPERSON JX, 1995, REGIONS RISK, V1, P1 KASPERSON RE, 1991, ACCEPTABLE EVIDENCE, P9 KATES RW, 1985, PERILOUS PROGR MANAG KATES RW, 1996, ENVIRONMENT, V38, P28 KATES RW, 1996, ENVIRONMENT, V38, P6 MATHER JR, 1991, GLOBAL CHANGE GEOGRA, P159 MEADOWS DH, 1972, LIMITS GROWTH REPORT MEADOWS DH, 1992, LIMITS CONFRONTING G MYERS N, 1988, ENVIRONMENTALIST, V8, P187 NEPSTAD DC, 1999, NATURE, V398, P505 PEZZOLI K, 1998, HUMAN SETTLEMENTS PL POTTER L, 1995, REGIONS RISK COMP TH, P460 PUCHACHENKO YG, 1989, EKOYSTEMY V KRITICHE RASKIN P, 1966, POLESTAR SERIES REPO, V1 ROCHELEAU D, 1995, REGIONS RISK COMP TH, P186 SCHNEIDER SH, 1998, J RISK RES, V1, P165 SCOONES I, 1994, FARMER 1 RURAL PEOPL SMITH JJH, 1995, REGIONS RISK COMP TH, P42 SMITH NJH, 1995, AMAZONIA RESILIENCY SVEDIN U, 1987, SURPRISING FUTURES N TIFFEN M, 1994, MORE PEOPLE LESS ERO TURNER BL, 1990, EARTH TRANSFORMED HU TURNER BL, 1990, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V1, P14 WATSON RT, 1998, REGIONAL IMPACTS CLI, V1, P1 NR 43 TC 4 J9 AMBIO BP 562 EP 568 PY 1999 PD SEP VL 28 IS 6 GA 258WP UT ISI:000083862900020 ER PT J AU Shepherd, TD Myers, RA TI Direct and indirect fishery effects on small coastal elasmobranchs in the northern Gulf of Mexico SO ECOLOGY LETTERS LA English DT Article C1 Dalhousie Univ, Dept Biol, Halifax, NS B3H 4J1, Canada. RP Shepherd, TD, Dalhousie Univ, Dept Biol, Halifax, NS B3H 4J1, Canada. AB Globally, bycatch in tropical/subtropical shrimp trawl and longline fisheries is threatening many marine species. Here we examine the joint effects of increased mortality caused by shrimp trawling bycatch, and reduced predation caused by losses of large sharks because of longline fishing. Research surveys in the Gulf of Mexico (1972-2002) demonstrated precipitous declines in shallow water coastal elasmobranchs where shrimping effort was highest (bonnethead 96%, Bancroft's numbfish (lesser electric ray) 98%, smooth butterfly ray > 99%) and consistent increases in deeper water elasmobranchs (Atlantic angel shark, smooth dogfish). These increases are the first empirical support for predation release caused by the loss of large sharks, which have been theorized to structure tropical/subtropical marine ecosystems. Bycatch of elasmobranchs in shrimp trawls is a critical conservation concern which is not solved by present mitigation measures; similar loss of elasmobranchs is expected to be occurring in tropical/subtropical regions worldwide where ever intensive shrimp trawling occurs. CR *NMFS, 2000, STAT REV SMALLT SAWF *OC STUD BOARD, 2002, EFF TRAWL DREDG SEAF ALVERSON DL, 1994, 339 FAO ANDERSON R, 2001, NETW COMPUT, V12, P14 BASCOMPTE J, 2005, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V102, P5443 BAUM JK, 2003, SCIENCE, V299, P389 BAUM JK, 2004, ECOL LETT, V7, P135 BURGESS GH, 2003, RENEWAL OBSERVER PRO CAILLIET GM, 1992, AUST J MAR FRESH RES, V43, P1313 CARPENTER KE, 2002, LIVING MARINE RESOUR, V1 CEDROLA PV, 2005, FISH RES, V71, P141 CLARK E, 1965, B MAR SCI, V15, P13 COMPAGNO LJV, 1984, FAO SPECIES CATALOGU, V4 CONRATH CL, 2002, FISH B-NOAA, V100, P674 CORTES E, 1999, ICES J MAR SCI, V56, P707 CORTES E, 2002, CONSERV BIOL, V16, P1048 CORTES E, 2002, SFD0102152 SE FISH S CORTES E, 2002, SFD0203177 SE FISH S DAAN N, 2005, ICES J MAR SCI, V62, P177 DECARVALHO MR, 1999, THESIS CITY U NEW YO DELMONTELUNA P, 2003, POPUL ECOL, V45, P257 DULVY NK, 2002, CONSERV BIOL, V16, P440 DULVY NK, 2003, FISH FISH, V4, P25 ESTES JA, 1998, SCIENCE, V282, P473 FOGARTY MJ, 1998, ECOL APPL, V8, P6 GALLAWAY BJ, 1999, N AM J FISH MANAGE, V19, P342 JENNINGS S, 1998, ADV MAR BIOL, V34, P201 JENNINGS S, 1999, CONSERV BIOL, V13, P1466 KITCHELL JF, 2002, ECOSYSTEMS, V5, P202 MARTINEZ EX, 1993, GALVESTON BAY NATL E MCDANIEL CJ, 2000, CONSERV ECOL, V4, P1 MYERS RA, 2003, NATURE, V423, P280 NORMAND SLT, 1999, STAT MED, V18, P321 PACE ML, 1999, TRENDS ECOL EVOL, V14, P483 POWELL SW, 2003, J NW ATL FISH SCI, V31, P19 RABALAIS NN, 2002, ANNU REV ECOL SYST, V33, P235 ROBERTS CM, 1999, TRENDS ECOL EVOL, V14, P241 SCHMIED RL, 1995, COOPERATIVE RES PROG SIMPFENDORFER CA, 2000, ENVIRON BIOL FISH, V58, P371 SMITH SE, 1998, MAR FRESHWATER RES, V49, P663 SOULE ME, 2005, BIOSCIENCE, V55, P168 SPRINGER S, 1967, SHARKS SKATES RAYS STEELE P, 2002, FISH B-NOAA, V100, P338 STEVENS JD, 2000, ICES J MAR SCI, V57, P476 STOBUTZKI IC, 2002, FISH B-NOAA, V100, P800 STRONG DR, 1992, ECOLOGY, V73, P747 VERITY PG, 1996, MAR ECOL-PROG SER, V130, P277 WARD P, 2005, ECOLOGY, V86, P835 WORM B, 2003, ECOLOGY, V84, P162 NR 49 TC 5 J9 ECOL LETT BP 1095 EP 1104 PY 2005 PD OCT VL 8 IS 10 GA 962MP UT ISI:000231737200009 ER PT J AU Chiara, JP Cruz, G TI Preliminary results from the implementation of the SPUR2 model in Uruguay SO CLIMATE RESEARCH LA English DT Article C1 Univ Republica, Fac Agron, Catedra Agrometeorol, Montevideo, Uruguay. RP Chiara, JP, Univ Republica, Fac Agron, Catedra Agrometeorol, Avda Garzon 780, Montevideo, Uruguay. AB Results from the first attempt at implementing the SPUR2 (Simulation of Production and Utilization of Rangelands) simulation model under the specific conditions of a deep soil on basalt rock in Uruguay are presented. The study area was selected because it represents a large portion of Uruguayan land (21%) almost exclusively oriented to cattle production; due to the variety of soil types in this region it was possible to analyze contrasting situations regarding vulnerability to the occurrence of extreme climatic events-such as droughts-and to potential climate changes. The information used, which included soil texture, organic matter content and hydrologic characteristics, corresponded to a representative soil of the Itapebi Tres Arboles unit. The weather data used were daily records for precipitation, as well as air temperature, solar radiation and wind run data simulated with a climate generator program. The model was run for the 1961-1990 period under normal (present day) carbon dioxide concentration conditions. The analysis focussed particularly on the SPUR2 outputs of the hydrology and plant submodels. Biomass production simulations showed a good representation of reality with regard to annual production. However, they differed from the actual data available for this area with regard to the seasonal distribution of forage. The results of the hydrology submodel significantly departed from the expected values. Potential evapotranspiration reached monthly Values 148% above normal (observed), which could be partly explained by the fact that the global solar radiation estimates were higher than the real values. CR 1994, US COUNTRY STUDIES P BERRETTA EJ, 1994, PASTURAS PRODUCCION BOSHELL JF, 1982, PUBLICACION, V50 CARAMBULA M, 1991, SERIE TECNICA, V19 CREMPIEN C, 1983, ANTECEDENTES TECNICO DESOUZA PJ, 1985, RESUMENES PRIMER SEM GONNET M, 1981, INVESTI AGRON, V2 MEIRELLES M, 1988, THESIS U REPUBLICA M ROSENGURTT B, 1979, TABLAS COMPORTAMIENT WIGHT JR, 1987, SPUR SIMULATION PROD ZUNINO R, 1988, THESIS U REPUBLICA M NR 11 TC 1 J9 CLIMATE RES BP 9 EP 15 PY 1997 PD DEC 29 VL 9 IS 1-2 GA ZD200 UT ISI:000072661400003 ER PT J AU Pethick, JS Crooks, S TI Development of a coastal vulnerability index: a geomorphological perspective SO ENVIRONMENTAL CONSERVATION LA English DT Article C1 Univ Newcastle, Dept Marine Sci & Coastal Management, Newcastle Upon Tyne NE1 7RU, Tyne & Wear, England. Univ E Anglia, Jackson Environm Inst, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. Univ E Anglia, CSERGE, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. RP Crooks, S, Univ Newcastle, Dept Marine Sci & Coastal Management, Newcastle Upon Tyne NE1 7RU, Tyne & Wear, England. AB Sustainable coastal resource management requires the safeguarding and transmission to future generations of a level and quality of natural resources that will provide an ongoing yield of economic and environmental services. All maritime nations are approaching this goal with different issues in mind. The UK, which has a long history of development and flood protection in coastal areas, has chosen to adopt shoreline management, rather than coastal management, so placing coastal defence above all else as its primary and statutory objective. This paper aims to provide a geomorphological perspective of long-term coastal evolution and seeks to compare the UK approach with wider interpretations of coastal management. Based on a literature review, it is argued that coastal management (CM) and shoreline management, as a subset of CM, should share the same ultimate objectives, which are defined by many authorities as sustainable use. The objectives, both strategic and pragmatic, which follow from such an aim may appear to conflict with a reading of many of the texts for international and national CM or designated area management which emphasizes stability rather than sustainability. The result is that coastal defence is seen not merely as a means to an end but as an end in itself. It is argued within this paper that sustainable use of the coast, however, demands both spatial and temporal flexibility of its component systems, and management for change must therefore be the primary objective. Response of the natural system to independent forcing factors must be encouraged under this objective, whether such forces are natural or anthropogenic. In achieving such an objective the concept of shoreline vulnerability may prove useful. A simple and preliminary Vulnerability Index is proposed, relating disturbance event frequency to relaxation time (the time taken for the coastal feature to recover its form). This index provides a first order approximation of the temporal variability that may be expected in landform components of the shoreline system, so allowing management to provide more realistic objectives for long-term sustainability in response to both natural and artificial forces. CR *DOE, 1993, MAN COAST REV COAST *FAO, 1992, SUST DEV ENV *IPCC CZMS, 1992, GLOB CLIM CHANG RIS *IPCC, 1996, 2 ASS REP SCI CLIM C *MAFF, 1993, PB1471 MIN AGR FISH *OECD, 1997, OECD POL APPR 21 CEN *UN, 1992, UN PUBLICATION *WCED, 1987, OUR COMM FUT ADGER WN, 1999, WORLD DEV, V27, P249 BARNE JH, 1996, COASTS SEAS UK REGIO BASCOM WH, 1954, P 14 C COAST ENG, P163 BIRD ECF, 1985, COASTAL CHANGES GLOB BOWER BT, 1998, OCEAN COAST MANAGE, V38, P41 BRUNSDEN D, 1996, ADV HILLSLOPE PROCES, V2, P869 CAPOBIANCO M, 1999, J COASTAL RES, V15, P701 CARPENTER K, 1996, W12 ENV AG R D FDN W CARTER RWG, 1988, COASTAL ENV INTRO PH COOPER NJ, 2000, J CHART INST WATER E, V14, P79 CROOKS S, 1999, ADV ECOL RES, V29, P241 DEBOER G, 1988, DYNAMIC EATUARY MAN, P16 FORBES DL, 1995, MAR GEOL, V126, P63 GUNTON A, 1997, J COASTAL RES, V13, P813 INGLIS CC, 1958, P I CIVIL ENG, V9, P193 KNIGHTON D, 1998, FLUVIAL FORMS PROCES LY CK, 1980, MAR GEOL, V37, P323 METCALFE SE, 2000, GEOLOGICAL SOC SPECI, V166, P97 MOON VG, 1994, J COASTAL RES, V10, P663 OCONNOR BA, 1987, J GEOL SOC LONDON, V144, P187 ORFORD JD, 1995, EARTH SURF PROCESSES, V20, P21 ORFORD JD, 1999, Z GEOMORPHOL, V43, P439 ORIORDAN T, 1995, ENV SCI ENV MAN PEARCE DW, 1993, WORLD END EC ENV SUS PETHICK JS, 1992, SALTMARSHES MORPHODY, P41 PETHICK JS, 1996, ESTUARINE SHORES EVO, P185 PRICE WA, 1963, P I CIVIL ENG, V24, P473 RAMSAR, 1971, CONV WETL INT IMP ES RICHIE W, 1990, COASTAL DUNES, P105 STANLEY DJ, 1993, SCIENCE, V260, P624 TOWNEND IH, 1990, INT NAVIGATION ASS P, V71, P72 TURNER RK, 1993, SUSTAINABLE ENV EC M VILES H, 1995, COASTAL PROBLEMS GEO NR 41 TC 2 J9 ENVIRON CONSERV BP 359 EP 367 PY 2000 PD DEC VL 27 IS 4 GA 418BT UT ISI:000167870400006 ER PT J AU Frei, A Armstrong, RL Clark, MP Serreze, MC TI Catskill mountain water resources: Vulnerability, hydroclimatology, and climate-change sensitivity SO ANNALS OF THE ASSOCIATION OF AMERICAN GEOGRAPHERS LA English DT Article C1 CUNY Hunter Coll, Dept Geog, New York, NY 10021 USA. Univ Colorado, Natl Snow & Ice Data Ctr, NISDC, CIRES, Boulder, CO 80309 USA. RP Frei, A, CUNY Hunter Coll, Dept Geog, New York, NY 10021 USA. AB We present an initial assessment of the potential impact of climate change on water supply in the Metropolitan East Coast (MEC) region of the U.S. National Assessment of the Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change. A version of the Thornthwaite water-balance model is applied to one of six basins in the Catskill Mountains that together provide water for approximately 10 million people in New York City and other municipalities. In addition to Thornthwaite's original soil moisture reservoir, the model includes the snow pack water reservoir of Willmott, Rowe, and Mintz (1985), a ground-water storage term, and several additional modifications. Following a review of the vulnerability of water supplies and historical hydroclimatology of this region, we estimate (1) the sensitivity of water supply to altered temperature and precipitation regimes and (2) the potential impacts of specific climate-change scenarios used by national and regional climate,change assessments. The sensitivity of runoff to temperature changes is approximately 6 percent per degree C; its sensitivity to precipitation changes is approximately 1.5-2 percent per percent change in precipitation, for annual mean values. Under all scenarios, rising temperatures will lead to significantly diminished water supplies unless precipitation increases dramatically. Due to disagreement between precipitation projections from different models and scenarios, projected changes in mean annual water supply range from approximately +10 percent to -30 percent by the 2080s. Under the driest scenario, water supplies under mean climatic conditions will be comparable to the worst extended drought period of the twentieth century in this region. Equally important are the likely effects on the annual cycle, which include an earlier peak runoff and a reduction of the snowpack by at least 50 percent. Considered in the context of likely increased demands, these changes may be significant. CR *IPCC, 2002, IPCC DAT DISTR CTR *NRC, 2000, WAT MAN POT WAT SUPP *NY CIT DEP ENV PR, 2001, DROUGHT WATCH DECL N *US NAT ASS, 2002, POT CONS CLIM VAR CH *USGS EARTH RES OB, 2001, USGS EARTH RES OBS S ALLEY WM, 1984, WATER RESOUR RES, V20, P1137 ANDERSSON L, 1992, NORD HYDROL, V23, P315 ARNELL NW, 1996, GLOBAL WARMING RIVER BROCCOLI AJ, 1996, ANN NY ACAD SCI, V790, P19 BURNS DA, 1998, EOS T AM GEOPHYS UN, V79, P197 COHEN SJ, 1989, 899 ATM ENV SERV CAN DIAZ HF, 1983, J CLIM APPL METEOROL, V22, P352 DOESKEN NJ, 1997, SNOW BOOKLET GUIDE S DOUGLAS AV, 1982, MON WEATHER REV, V110, P1851 FEDERER CA, 1996, WATER RESOUR RES, V32, P2315 GALUSHA D, 1999, LIQUID ASSETS HIST N GLEICK PH, 2001, ENVIRONMENT, V43, P18 GOLDSTEIN EA, 1990, NY ENV BOOK GROISMAN PY, 1994, B AM METEOROL SOC, V75, P215 GROOPMAN A, 1967, J AM WATER WORKS ASS, V60, P37 HENDRICK RL, 1976, J APPL METEOROL, V15, P717 HILL D, 1996, BAKED APPLE METROPOL JAKEMAN AJ, 1993, WATER RESOUR RES, V29, P2637 JUDSON A, 2000, B AM METEOROL SOC, V81, P1577 KARL TR, 1983, J CLIM APPL METEOROL, V22, P1356 KERR RA, 2000, SCIENCE, V288, P2113 KUSTAS WP, 1994, WATER RESOUR RES, V30, P1515 LEFFLER RJ, 1981, J APPL METEOROL, V20, P637 LEGATES DR, 1992, GEOGR REV, V82, P253 LEGATES DR, 1993, WATER RESOUR BULL, V29, P855 LETTENMAIER DP, 1999, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V43, P537 LINDSTROM G, 1997, J HYDROL, V201, P272 LOCKWOOD JG, 1999, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V41, P193 MAJOR DC, 1993, P 1 NAT C CLIM CHANG MARTIN M, 1999, J CLIMATE, V12, P3359 MARX R, 1993, WATER RESOURCES B, V7, P474 MATHER JR, 1985, PUBLICATIONS CLIMATO, V38 MCCABE GJ, 1989, WATER RESOUR BULL, V25, P1231 MILLY PCD, 1994, WATER RESOUR RES, V30, P2143 MINTZ Y, 1992, CLIM DYNAM, V8, P13 MINTZ Y, 1993, J APPL METEOROL, V32, P1305 MULLER RA, 1969, P ASS AM GEOGR, V1, P121 MULLER RA, 1981, ENV CHINESE AM VIEWS, P171 MULLER RA, 2000, ANN M ASS AM GEOGR NAMIAS J, 1966, MON WEA REV, V94, P543 NAMIAS J, 1978, MON WEATHER REV, V106, P279 PLATT RH, 2000, ENVIRONMENT, V42, P8 ROSENZWEIG C, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE GLOBA ROSENZWEIG C, 2001, ENVIRONMENT, V43, P8 SLACK JRS, 1993, HYDROCLIMATIC DATA N THALER JS, 1989, NE ENV SCI, V8, P106 THALER JS, 1994, NE GEOLOGY, V16, P162 THALER JS, 1996, CATSKILL WEATHER THORNTHWAITE CW, 1948, GEOGR REV, V38, P55 THORNTHWAITE CW, 1955, PUBLICATIONS CLIMATO, V8, P1 THORNTHWAITE CW, 1957, PUBLICATIONS CLIMATO, V10 VOROSMARTY CJ, 1998, J HYDROL, V207, P147 WEISMAN RA, 1985, AM METEOROLOGICAL SO, V66, P788 WILLMOTT CJ, 1985, J CLIMATOL, V5, P589 WOLOCK DM, 1991, J FORECASTING, V10, P105 WOLOCK DM, 1993, WATER RESOUR BULL, V29, P475 WOLOCK DM, 1999, CLIMATE RES, V11, P149 WOLOCK DM, 1999, J AM WATER RESOUR AS, V35, P1341 NR 63 TC 3 J9 ANN ASSN AMER GEOGR BP 203 EP 224 PY 2002 PD JUN VL 92 IS 2 GA 565YT UT ISI:000176398700003 ER PT J AU Kates, RW Colten, CE Laska, S Leatherman, SP TI Reconstruction of New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina: A research perspective SO PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA LA English DT Article C1 Louisiana State Univ, Dept Geog & Anthropol, Baton Rouge, LA 70803 USA. Univ New Orleans, Ctr Hazards Assessment Response & Technol, New Orleans, LA 70148 USA. Florida Int Univ, Int Hurricane Res Ctr, Miami, FL 33199 USA. RP Kates, RW, 33 Popple Point, Trenton, ME 04605 USA. AB Four propositions drawn from 60 years of natural hazard and reconstruction research provide a comparative and historical perspective on the reconstruction of New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina. Decisions taken over its 288-year history that have made New Orleans so vulnerable to Katrina reflect a long-term pattern of societal response to hazard events-reducing consequences to relatively frequent events, and increasing vulnerability to very large and rare events. Thus Katrina's consequences for New Orleans were truly catastrophic-accounting for most of the estimated 1,570 deaths of Louisiana residents and $40-50 billion in monetary losses. A comparative sequence and timing of recovery provides a calendar of historical experience against which to gauge progress in reconstruction. Using this calendar, the emergency postdisaster period appears to be longer in duration than that of any other studied disaster. The restoration period, the time taken to restore urban services for the smaller population, is in keeping with or ahead of historical experience. The effort to reconstruct the physical environment and urban infrastructure is likely to take 8-11 years. Conflicting policy goals for reconstruction of rapid recovery, safety, betterment, and equity are already evident. Actions taken demonstrate the rush to rebuild the familiar in contrast to planning efforts that emphasize betterment. Because disasters tend to accelerate existing economic, social, and political trends, the large losses in housing, population, and employment after Katrina are likely to persist and, at best, only partly recover. However, the possibility of breaking free of this gloomy trajectory is feasible and has some historical precedent. CR 2006, INMAN NEWS 0327 *AIR WORLDW, 2005, AIR WORLDW EST TOT P *AM I ARCH, 2006, START POINT REP LOUI *BRING NEW ORL BAC, 2005, SUST ARCH NEW ORL KA *BRING NEW ORL BAC, 2006, ACT PLAN NEW ORL NEW *CIT NEW ORL, 2006, 2006 EM PREP PLAN *CIT NEW ORL, 2006, MAYOR CIT COUNC CIV *FED EM MAN AG, 2006, FLOOD REC GUID ADV B *HJ HEINZ 3 CTR SC, 2000, HIDD COSTS COAST HAZ *IND U CTR PHIL, 2006, GULF COAST HURR REL *INT PERF EV TASK, 2006, PERF EV NEW ORL SE L, V7 *INT PERF EV TASK, 2006, PERFORMANCE EVALUTIO, V1 *LOUIS COAST WETL, 1998, COAST 2050 SUST COAS *LOUIS DEP HLTH HO, 2006, REP MISS DEC *LOUIS REC AUTH, 2006, SUMM PROP ACT PLAN A *NAT I STAND TECHN, 2006, PERF PHYS STRUCT HUR *NAT RES COUNC COM, 2006, DRAW LOUIS NEW MAP A *NAT RES COUNC COM, 2006, FAC HAZ DIS UND HUM *RISK MAN SOL, 2005, RMS COMB REAL TIM RE *US ARM CORPS ENG, 1972, HIST HURR OCC COAST *US DEP HOUS URB D, 2006, CURR HOUS UN DAM EST AGEE JK, 2005, FOREST ECOL MANAG, V211, P83 BARRY JM, 1997, RISING TIDE GREAT MI BATES FL, 1993, LIVING CONDITIONS DI BOHANNON J, 2005, SCIENCE, V309, P1808 BOWDEN M, 1977, RECONSTRUCTION FOLLO, P69 BOWDEN MJ, 1981, CLIMATE HIST STUDIES, P479 BURBY RJ, 2006, ANN AM ACAD POLIT SS, V604, P171 BURTON I, 1962, TYPES AGR OCCUPANCE BURTON I, 1978, ENV HAZARD, V1, P1 CHANDLER T, 1974, 3000 YEARS URBAN GRO COLTEN CE, 2005, UNNATURAL METROPOLIS CUTTER SL, 2000, AM HAZARDSCAPES REGI CUTTER SL, 2005, EOS T AM GEOPHYS UN, V86, P381 CUTTER SL, 2005, EOS T AM GEOPHYS UN, V86, P388 DRURY AC, 1998, J CONTING CRISIS MAN, V6, P151 ELLIOTT DO, 1932, IMPROVEMENT LOWER MI EMANUEL K, 2005, NATURE, V436, P686 FENNER E, 1849, S MED REP, V1, P56 FENNER E, 1849, S MED REP, V1, P63 FISCHETTI M, 2001, SCI AM, V285, P77 FOLKE C, 2002, RESILIENCE SUSTAINAB FREY WH, 2006, KATRINA RITA IMPACTS GEIPEL R, 1991, LONG TERM CONSEQUENC GOLDENBERG SB, 2001, SCIENCE, V293, P474 HAAS JE, 1977, RECONSTRUCTION FOLLO HOUCK O, 2006, TULANE ENV LAW REV, V19, P1 IUSPAABBOTT P, 2003, S FLORIDA BUSINESS J KATES RW, 1977, RECONSTRUCTION FOLLO, P1 LASKA S, 2004, NAT HAZARDS OBSERVER, V29, P4 LEWIS P, 2003, NEW ORLEANS MAKING U LIU A, 2006, SPECIAL EDITION KATR LOGAN JR, 2006, IMPACT KATRINA RACE MANN ME, 2006, EOS, V87, P233 MCCARTHY K, 2005, REPOPULATION NEW ORL MCQUAID J, 2002, TIMES PICAYUNE 0623 MILETI DS, 1999, DISASTERS DESIGN REA MITCHELL JK, 2004, NZ REC S P JUL 12 13, P47 PASTOR M, 2006, WAKE STORM ENV DISAS ROVAI E, 1994, YB ASS PAC COAST GEO, V56, P49 STEPHEN S, 1983, DISASTERS, V7, P194 STOKSTAD E, 2005, SCIENCE, V310, P1264 WEBSTER PJ, 2005, SCIENCE, V309, P1844 WHITE GF, 1945, HUMAN ADJUSTMENT FLO NR 64 TC 1 J9 PROC NAT ACAD SCI USA BP 14653 EP 14660 PY 2006 PD OCT 3 VL 103 IS 40 GA 092AL UT ISI:000241069300005 ER PT J AU Thomas, DSG Twyman, C TI Equity and justice in climate change adaptation amongst natural-resource-dependent societies SO GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS LA English DT Article C1 Univ Oxford, Sch Geog & Environm, Oxford OX1 3TB, England. Univ Sheffield, Dept Geog, Sheffield S10 2TN, S Yorkshire, England. RP Thomas, DSG, Univ Oxford, Sch Geog & Environm, Mansfield Rd, Oxford OX1 3TB, England. AB Issues of equity and justice are high on international agendas dealing with the impacts of global climate change. But what are the implications of climate change for equity and justice amongst vulnerable groups at local and sub-national levels? We ask this question for three reasons: (a) there is a considerable literature suggesting that the poorest and most vulnerable groups will disproportionately experience the negative effects of 21st century climate change; (b) such changes are likely to impact significantly on developing world countries, where natural-resource dependency is high; and (c) international conventions increasingly recognise the need to centrally engage resource stakeholders in agendas in order to achieve their desired aims, as part of more holistic approaches to sustainable development. These issues however have implications for distributive and procedural justice, particularly when considered within the efforts of the UNFCCC. The issues are examined through an evaluation of key criteria relating to climate change scenarios and vulnerability in the developing world, and second through two southern African case studies that explore the ways in which livelihoods are differentially impacted by (i) inequitable natural-resource use policies, (ii) community-based natural-resource management programmes. Finally, we consider the placement of climate change amongst the package of factors affecting equity in natural-resource use, and whether this placement creates a case for considering climate change as 'special' amongst livelihood disturbing factors in the developing world. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *DFID, 1997, EL WORLD POV CHALL 2 *DFID, 2002, EL HUNG DFID FOOD SE WATSON RT, 1998, REGIONAL IMPACTS CLI, V1, P1 *IPCC, 2001, CLIM CHANG 2001 *WORLDBANK, 2000, CAN AFR CLAIM 21 CEN *WORLDBANK, 2000, WORLD DEV REP 2000 2 *WORLDBANK, 2002, POV CLIM CHANG RED V, P54 *WRI, 1994, WORLD RES GUID GLOB ADGER WN, 2000, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V90, P738 ADGER WN, 2002, AMBIO, V31, P358 ADGER WN, 2003, ENVIRON PLANN A, V35, P1095 ADGER WN, 2003, PROGR DEV STUDIES, V3, P179 ADGER WN, 2005, IN PRESS EQUITY JUST ANAND P, 2001, J ECON PSYCHOL, V22, P247 ASHLEY C, 2001, DEV POLICY REV, V19, P395 BARKER T, 2003, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V13, P1 BEG N, 2002, CLIM POLICY, V2, P129 BEINART W, 1995, ENV HIST BERKES F, 2002, CONSERV ECOL, V5, P1 BERRY S, 1989, AFRICA, V59, P1 BROAD R, 1994, WORLD DEV, V22, P811 BROWN K, 2002, GEOGR J 1, V168, P6 BRYCESON DF, 1996, WORLD DEV, V24, P97 BRYCESON DF, 2002, WORLD DEV, V30, P725 BURTON I, 1996, ADAPTING CLIMATE CHA, P55 BURTON I, 2002, CLIM POLICY, V2, P145 CHAMBERS R, 1983, RURAL DEV PUTTING LA CLAY E, 1984, ROOM MANOEUVRE EXPLO CORELL E, 1999, INT NEGOTIATION, V4, P197 CRUSH J, 1995, POWER DEV DENTON F, 2000, CLIMATE CHANGE SUSTA DERCON S, 1996, J DEV STUD, V32, P850 DESANKER P, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, P489 ELLIS F, 1998, J DEV STUD, V35, P1 ELLIS F, 2000, RURAL LIVELIHOODS DI FEW R, 2003, PROGR DEV STUDIES, V3, P43 GRUBB M, 2001, CLIM POLICY, V1, P269 HULME M, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE SO AF KATES RW, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P5 KENT S, 1996, CULTURAL DIVERSITY 2, P125 KIKAR GA, 2000, WORKSH MEAS IMP CLIM LEACH M, 1999, WORLD DEV, V27, P225 LOGAN BI, 2002, GEOFORUM, V33, P1 METZ B, 2002, CLIM POLICY, V2, P211 MEYER WB, 1998, HUMAN CHOICE CLIMATE, V3 MILLER D, 1992, ETHICS, V102, P555 MORTIMORE MJ, 2001, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V11, P49 MOSER CON, 1998, WORLD DEV, V26, P1 MURTON J, 1999, GEOGR J 1, V165, P37 OSAKI M, 1984, AFRICAN STUDY MONOGR, V5, P49 PAAVOLA J, 2002, 23 U E ANGL TYND CTR PELLING M, 1999, GEOFORUM, V30, P249 PIETERSE JN, 1999, DEV CHANGE, V30, P183 RAMAKRISHNAN PS, 1998, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V39, P583 RAYNER S, 2000, CLIMATE CHANGE ITS L REIJ C, 2001, FARMER INNOVATION AF RINGIUS L, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE AFRIC, P154 SCOONES I, 1999, POLICIES SOIL FERTIL SCOONES I, 2001, DYNAMICS DIVERSITY S SKOUFIAS E, 2003, WORLD DEV, V31, P1087 SMIT B, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, P879 SOKONA Y, 2001, CLIM POLICY, V1, P117 THOMAS DSG, 2002, POVERTY POLICY NATUR THOMAS DSG, 2003, 3 MILLENNIUM ROLE ST, P3 THOMAS DSG, 2004, LAND DEGRAD DEV, V15, P215 TIFFEN M, 1994, MORE PEOPLE LESS ERO TOL RSJ, 2000, MUCH DAMAGE WILL CLI TOMPKINS EL, 2004, ECOL SOC, V9, P10 TSING AL, 1999, AMBIO, V28, P197 TWYMAN C, 1998, THIRD WORLD Q, V19, P745 TWYMAN C, 2001, REV AFRICAN POLITICA, V87, P9 TWYMAN C, 2002, INT C WAT RES INT MA TWYMAN C, 2004, GEOFORUM, V35, P69 WASHINGTON R, IN PRESS WATER RESOU NR 74 TC 4 J9 GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANGE BP 115 EP 124 PY 2005 PD JUL VL 15 IS 2 GA 931VR UT ISI:000229514100005 ER PT J AU Howe, P Devereux, S TI Famine intensity and magnitude scales: A proposal for an instrumental definition of famine SO DISASTERS LA English DT Article C1 Univ Sussex, Inst Dev Studies, Brighton BN1 9RE, E Sussex, England. RP Howe, P, Univ Sussex, Inst Dev Studies, Brighton BN1 9RE, E Sussex, England. AB Ambiguities in current usage of the term 'famine' have had tragic implications for response and accountability in a number of recent food crises. This paper proposes a new approach to defining famine based on the use of intensity and magnitude scales, where 'intensity' refers to the severity of the crisis at a given location and point in time, while 'magnitude' describes the aggregate impact of a crisis. The scales perform three operations on famine':first, moving from a binary conception of 'famine/no famine' to a graduated, multi-level definition; second, disaggregating the dimensions of intensity and magnitude; and third, assigning harmonised 'objective' criteria in place of subjective, case-by-case judgements. If adopted, the famine scales should contribute to more effective and proportionate responses, as well as greater accountability in future food crises. 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RP Niehof, A, Univ Wageningen & Res Ctr, Mansholt Grad Sch Social Sci, Sociol Consumers & Households Grp, Wageningen, Netherlands. AB There is an increasing awareness that diversification plays a strategic role in rural livelihood systems. The principal question to be addressed in this paper pertains to the conditions and the ways in which rural households diversify their livelihood activities and strategies. To answer this question empirical evidence will be reviewed. Specific attention will be paid to perspectives that may shed new light on the issue of rural livelihood diversification: a gender perspective, a temporal perspective, and the 'HIV/AIDS lens'. In the paper, the livelihood system is seen as an open system, interfacing with other systems and using various resources and assets to produce livelihood, with the household as the locus of livelihood generation. Diversification is defined as the process by which households construct increasingly. diverse livelihood portfolios, making use, of. increasingly diverse combinations of resources and assets. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR ADLER PS, 1999, SOCIAL CAPITAL GOOD ANDERSON M, 1994, SOCIAL POLITICAL EC ARACHCHI RBS, 1998, UNDERSTANDING VULNER BARNETT T, 2002, AIDS 21 CENTURY BARRETT CB, 2001, FOOD POLICY, V26, P315 BEBBINGTON A, 1999, WORLD DEV, V27, P2021 BERRY S, 1993, NO CONDITION IS PERM BRYCESON DH, 1999, 43 ASC AFR STUD CHAMBERS R, 1989, IDS B, V20, P1 CHAMBERS R, 1992, 296 IDS CHEAL D, 1989, HOUSEHOLD EC RECONSI CROW B, 1992, RURAL LIVELIHOODS CR EDMONDSON JC, 1992, BALI REVISITED RURAL ELLIS F, 1988, FARM HOUSEHOLDS AGRA ELLIS F, 1998, J DEV STUD, V35, P1 ELLIS F, 2000, RURAL LIVELIHOODS DI ENGBERG LE, 1990, RURAL HOUSEHOLDS RES FIREBAUGH FM, 1994, CHANGES DAILY LIFE HADDAD L, 2001, J INT DEV, V13, P487 HETLER CB, 1990, STRUCTURES STRATEGIE JOHNSON H, 1992, RURAL LIVELIHOODS CR KABEER N, 1994, REVERSED REALITIES G KENNEDY E, 1991, INCOME SOURCES MALNO LINDENBERG M, 2002, WORLD DEV, V30, P301 LOEVINSOHN M, 2003, 2 IFPRI RENEWAL ISNA MOERBEEK HS, 2001, ICS DISSERTATION SER, V73 MOSER CON, 1996, ENV SUSTAINABLE DEV, V8 MTSHALI SM, 2002, THESIS WAGENINGEN U NEGASH A, 2001, THESIS WAGENINGEN U NIEHOF A, 2001, WAGENINGEN UPWARD SE, V1 NIEHOF A, 2003, 2 IS ENOUGH FAMILY P OLAUGHLIN B, 1997, WORKING PAPER SERIES, V252 ORR A, 2001, WORLD DEV, V29, P1325 PENNARTZ P, 1999, DOMESTIC DOMAIN CHAN PORTES A, 1998, ANNU REV SOCIOL, V24, P1 REARDON T, 2000, J AGR ECON, V51, P266 RUDIE I, 1995, MALE FEMALE DEV SE A RUGALEMA GHR, 1999, THESIS I SOCIAL STUD SCOONES I, 1998, 72 U SUSS I DEV STUC SWIFT J, 1989, IDS B, V20, P8 VONBRAUN J, 1991, INCOME SOURCES MALNO NR 41 TC 0 J9 FOOD POLICY BP 321 EP 338 PY 2004 PD AUG VL 29 IS 4 GA 867YF UT ISI:000224878100003 ER PT J AU Azar, C Schneider, SH TI Are the economic costs of stabilising the atmosphere prohibitive? SO ECOLOGICAL ECONOMICS LA English DT Article C1 Univ Gothenburg, Chalmers Univ Technol, Dept Phys Resource Theory, S-41296 Gothenburg, Sweden. Stanford Univ, Dept Biol Sci, Stanford, CA 94305 USA. RP Azar, C, Univ Gothenburg, Chalmers Univ Technol, Dept Phys Resource Theory, S-41296 Gothenburg, Sweden. AB Macro economic studies of the costs of reducing CO2 emissions generally estimate the global cost of stabilising the atmospheric concentrations of CO2 in the range 350-550 ppm in trillions of USD. This creates the impression that the cost of CO2 reductions is so large that it threatens economic development. But, presented in another way, a completely different picture emerges. There is widespread agreement amongst the more pessimistic macro economic studies that stringent carbon controls are compatible with a significant increase in global and regional economic welfare. Even if the cost of CO2 abatement rises to 5% of global income per year by the end of this century, this reduction is minor compared with the tenfold increase in global income that is expected. Since income is assumed to grow by a couple of percent per year, the trillion USD cost could also be expressed as a few years delay in achieving an order of magnitude higher income levels. Similar observations can also be made as regards near-term abatement targets such as the Kyoto protocol. A more widespread recognition of the fact that carbon abatement policies will only marginally affect economic growth is likely to increase the willingness to introduce carbon abatement policies. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. 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Univ Manchester, CURE, Manchester M13 9PL, Lancs, England. RP McEvoy, D, Univ Maastricht, Int Ctr Integrated Assessment & Sustainable Dev, Maastricht, Netherlands. AB Following the introduction of the national Climate Change Programme, initiatives that seek to mitigate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are now well established in the UK. However, there is increasing recognition that adaptation to some level of climate change will be necessary, even if a reduction in emissions is successful. This is inevitable as much of the predicted climate changes over the next 30 - 40 years have already been predetermined by past and present emissions of GHGs. Change is likely to be significant. Understanding what the risks are likely to be and how best to adapt to them is therefore central to any mature climate change strategy. However, the inevitable linkages between adaptation and mitigation measures represent a particular challenge. Focusing on the consequences of climate change for the urban environment ( where most of the population is concentrated and where its impact is likely to be most keenly felt), this paper suggests preferred adaptation options and provides an evaluation of how these may act to reinforce or hamper mitigation efforts. For example, moves towards urban densification may contribute to the reduction of energy use, yet will have negative implications for adaptation. Having a better understanding of the synergies, conflicts and trade-offs between mitigation and adaptation measures would make a valuable contribution to a more integrated climate policy and the effective climate-proofing of our towns and cities. 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NR 0 TC 0 J9 SING J TROP GEOGR BP 241 EP 242 PY 1995 PD DEC VL 16 IS 2 GA UH587 UT ISI:A1995UH58700009 ER PT J AU Hartig, EK Grozev, O Rosenzweig, C TI Climate change, agriculture and wetlands in Eastern Europe: Vulnerability, adaptation and policy SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 BULGARIAN ACAD SCI,FOREST RES INST,BG-1040 SOFIA,BULGARIA. NASA,GODDARD INST SPACE STUDIES,NEW YORK,NY 10025. RP Hartig, EK, COLUMBIA UNIV,CTR CLIMATE SYST RES,NEW YORK,NY 10027. AB Naturally-occurring wetlands perform such functions as flood control, pollution filtration, nutrient recycling, sediment accretion, groundwater recharge and water supply, erosion control, and plant and wildlife preservation. A large concentration of wetlands is located in Eastern Europe. A significant amount of Eastern European wetlands has been converted to agricultural use in the past, and remaining wetlands are subject to agricultural drainage. Drained wetlands are used as prime agriculture lands for a variety of food crops. Other agricultural uses of wetlands range from growing Phragmites australis (common reed) for thatch and livestock feed, to collecting peat for heating and cooking fuel. Altered hydrologic regimes due to global climate change could further exacerbate encroachment of agricultural land use into wetlands. The vulnerability and adaptation studies of the U.S. Country Studies Program are used to analyze where climate change impacts to agriculture may likewise impact wetland;areas. Scenarios indicate higher temperatures and greater evapotranspiration altering the hydrologic regime such that freshwater wetlands are potentially vulnerable in Bulgaria, Czech Republic, and Russia, and that coastal wetlands are at risk in Estonia. Runoff is identified as a key hydrological parameter affecting wetland function. Since wetland losses may increase as a result of climate-change-induced impacts to agriculture, precautionary management options are reviewed, such as establishing buffer areas, promoting sustainable uses of wetlands, and restoration of farmed or mined wetland areas. These options may reduce the extent of negative agricultural impacts on wetlands due to global climate change. CR *CZECH REP COUNTR, 1995, 5 NAT CLIM PROGR CZE *FAO, 1993, AGROSTAT COMP INF SE *INT BENCHM SIT NE, 1989, DEC SUPP SYST AGR TR *IPCC, 1990, IPCC WORK GROUP, V2 *US ARM CORPS ENG, 1987, Y871 US ARM CORPS EN, P100 *US COUNTR STUD PR, 1995, UNPUB REG WORKSH CLI *USDA, 1995, ENT 1995 WETL RES PR, P4 BABCOCK GH, 1992, SOURCES ENERGY, V8, P8 COWARDIN LM, 1979, US FISH WILDLIFE SER, P103 CRUM HA, 1988, FOCUS PEATLANDS PEAT GORIUP P, 1990, PARKS, P56 GREEN FWH, 1978, GEOGR J, V144, P171 HANSEN JE, 1984, GEOPHYS MONOGR, V29, P130 HARRISS RC, 1988, GLOBAL BIOGEOCHEMICA, V2, P231 HARRISS RC, 1992, GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANG, V3, P48 HEJNY, 1978, POND LITTORAL ECOSYS, P1 HILLEL D, 1992, OUT EARTH CIVILIZATI, P320 HOLLIS GE, 1988, NATURE RESOUR, V24, P2 ISZRAEL YA, 1995, DEFCO293PO10118 ANL KONT A, 1996, VULNERABILITY ADAPTA, P249 KUSLER JA, 1990, WETLAND CREATION RES, P594 KVET J, 1978, POND LITTORAL ECOSYS, P211 LARSON JS, 1989, PUBLICATION U MASSAC, V896, P62 LEAN G, 1990, ATLAS ENV, P192 LOOMIS RS, 1992, CROP ECOLOGY PRODUCT, P538 MATTHEWS E, 1987, GLOBAL BIOGEOCHEMICA, V1, P61 MATTHEWS E, 1993, NATO ASI SER, V1, P314 MITSCH WJ, 1993, WETLANDS, P722 MITSCH WJ, 1995, SOIL MANAGEMENT GREE, V18, P205 MORTSCH L, 1990, DEP GEOGRAPHY PUBLIC, P217 PAAVILAINEN E, 1995, PEATLAND FORESTRY EC, P248 PIECZYNSKA E, 1976, INT C CONS WETL WAT, P180 RAEV I, 1995, UNPUB VULNERABILITY SINGER, 1981, COMBUSTION FOSSIL PO, P2 SZCZEPANSKA W, 1976, POL ARCH HYDROBIOL, V23, P233 TEAL J, 1969, LIFE DEATH SALT MARS, P274 TINER RW, 1984, WETLANDS US CURRENT, P58 WATSON RT, 1995, CONTRIBUTION WORKING, P215 WETHERALD RT, 1986, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V8, P5 WHEELER BD, 1995, RESTORATION TEMPERAT, P562 WILSON CA, 1987, J GEOPHYS RES-ATMOSP, V92, P13315 YABLOKOV AV, 1991, CONSERVATION LIVING, P271 NR 42 TC 2 J9 CLIMATIC CHANGE BP 107 EP 121 PY 1997 PD MAY-JUN VL 36 IS 1-2 GA XH635 UT ISI:A1997XH63500008 ER PT J AU Chen, CC Chang, CC TI The impact of weather on crop yield distribution in Taiwan: some new evidence from panel data models and implications for crop insurance SO AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS LA English DT Article C1 Natl Chung Hsing Univ, Dept Appl Econ, Taichung, Taiwan. Natl Taiwan Univ, Dept Agr Econ, Taipei 10764, Taiwan. Acad Sinica, Inst Econ, Taipei 115, Taiwan. RP Chang, CC, Acad Sinica, Inst Econ, Yen Chiou Yuan Rd, Taipei 115, Taiwan. AB This study examines the impact of weather on the yields of seven major crops in Taiwan based on pooled panel data for 15 prefectures over the 1977-1996 period. The unit root tests and maximum likelihood methods involving a panel data model are explored to obtain reliable estimates. The uncertain yield outcome is incorporated into a discrete stochastic programming model to address a comparison between sector analysis with and without considerations of a crop insurance policy under different climate change scenarios. Simulation results suggest that crop insurance may stabilize revenues and protect farmers from exposures to increasing weather-related risk. CR MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 ADAMS RM, 2003, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V60, P131 AHSAN SM, 1982, AM J AGR ECON, V64, P520 ARELLANO M, 1993, J ECONOMETRICS, V59, P87 BACHELET D, 1993, SYSTEMS APPROACHES A, P145 BALTAGI BH, 1995, EC ANAL PANEL DATA BALTAGI BH, 1995, J ECONOMETRICS, V68, P133 BARTLETT MS, 1937, PROC R SOC LON SER-A, V160, P268 CHANG CC, 2002, AGR ECON, V27, P51 CHEN CC, 2000, J AGR RESOUR ECON, V25, P368 DARWIN RF, 2004, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V66, P191 HARDMAN LL, 1997, ALTERNATIVE FIELD CR HOOGENBOOM G, 2000, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V103, P137 HOSSAIN M, 1997, APPL SYSTEMS APPROAC HSU HH, 2002, METEOROL ATMOS PHYS, V79, P87 IM KS, 2003, J ECONOMETRICS, V115, P53 JUDGE GG, 1985, THEORY PRACTICE EC JUST RE, 1978, J ECONOMETRICS, V7, P67 JUST RE, 1999, AM J AGR ECON, V81, P287 LAMBERT DK, 1995, J AGR APPL EC, V27, P423 LANSIGAN FP, 2000, AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON, V82, P129 LEVIN A, 1992, UNPUB UNIT ROOT TEST LEVIN A, 1993, 9356 U CAL LEVIN A, 2002, J ECONOMETRICS, V108, P1 LIN CF, 1994, STSAT GRAPHICAL SUMM MATTHEWS RB, 1997, AGR SYST, V54, P399 MCCARL BA, 1980, AM J AGR ECON, V62, P87 MEARNS LO, 1996, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V32, P257 MEARNS LO, 1997, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V35, P367 NORTON RD, 1980, EUROPEAN REV AGR EC, V7, P229 OLESEN JE, 2002, EUR J AGRON, V16, P239 PARRY ML, 1999, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V9, P51 QUAH D, 1994, ECON LETT, V44, P9 RIHA SJ, 1996, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V32, P293 SAHA A, 1997, APPL ECON, V29, P459 SAMUELSON PA, 1952, AM ECON REV, V42, P283 SEGERSON K, 1999, IMPACT CLIMATE CHANG, CH4 SMIT B, 1996, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V6, P205 TAKAYAMA T, 1971, SPATIAL TEMPORAL PRI TSVETSINSKAYA EA, 2003, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V60, P37 TURVEY CG, 2001, REV AGR ECON, V23, P333 YOUNG CE, 2001, AM J AGR ECON, V83, P1196 YU PS, 2002, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V54, P165 NR 43 TC 0 J9 AGR ECON BP 503 EP 511 PY 2005 PD NOV VL 33 IS 3 GA 988SK UT ISI:000233620800013 ER PT J AU Owen, T Slaymaker, O TI Toward modeling regionally specific human security using GIS: Case study Cambodia SO AMBIO LA English DT Article C1 Jesus Coll, Oxford OX1 3DW, England. Univ British Columbia, Dept Geog, Vancouver, BC V6T 122, Canada. RP Owen, T, Jesus Coll, Turl St, Oxford OX1 3DW, England. AB A new methodology for measuring human security is presented. The three stages of the methodology are: i) threat assessment, ii) data collection and organization, and iii) data visualization and analysis, using Geographic Information Systems. Results from a Cambodia case study are highlighted. The United Nations Development Program's notion of human security, which gives equal weight to economic, health, food, political, personal, and environmental factors, is used. Country-specific threats in each category are determined, and local, spatially referenced data are collected. In this paper, poverty, dengue fever, and tuberculosis are used as examples of the analytic process. Regions of Cambodia exposed to all three of these threats ("hot spots") are located, and spatial correlation between poverty, dengue fever, and tuberculosis is calculated. The methodology i) advances a broad concept of human security, ii) will potentially assist policy and decision makers, and iii) identifies research questions that cannot be resolved using single-sector analysis. CR *UN DEV PROGR, 1994, NEW DIM HUM SEC HUM, P22 BRAUER J, 2001, WAR NATURE PROBLEM D KHONG YF, 2001, GLOB GOV, V7, P231 KRAUSE K, 2000, UNE APPROCH CRITIQUE MACK A, 2002, FEASIBILITY CREATING MACK A, 2004, J PEACE RES, V39, P515 OWEN T, 2004, SECUR DIALOGUE, V35, P373 THOMAS N, 2002, SECUR DIALOGUE, V33, P177 NR 8 TC 0 J9 AMBIO BP 445 EP 449 PY 2005 PD AUG VL 34 IS 6 GA 954TW UT ISI:000231178800005 ER PT J AU Strzepek, KM Yates, DN ElQuosy, DE TI Vulnerability assessment of water resources in Egypt to climatic change in the Nile Basin SO CLIMATE RESEARCH LA English DT Article C1 WATER RES CTR,WATER MANAGEMENT RES INST,CAIRO,EGYPT. RP Strzepek, KM, STRZEPEK & ASSOCIATES,5343 AZTEC DR,BOULDER,CO 80303. AB The impacts of global climate change on the water resources of the Nile River Basin were evaluated using simulation models. Four climate change scenarios were evaluated (baseline, GISS, GFDL, and UKMO). The complete impact of climatic changes in the Nile cannot be fully predicted with confidence, as some models forecast increased flows, while others project significant decreases. However, it was observed that the Nile River flow is extremely sensitive to ambient temperature and precipitation changes, and it is possible that the effects of climatic fluctuations would be severe. Several water management options were identified to help adapt Nile River management to a changing global climate. CR *WMO, 1977, HYDR MOD UPP NIL B B, V1 CHAN S, 1980, 261 MIT RM PARS LAB CONWAY D, 1993, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V25, P127 ELDIN SHS, 1992, CLIMATIC FLUCTUATION, P59 GLEICK PH, 1987, WATER RESOUR RES, V23, P1049 GLEICK PH, 1991, ENV PROFESSIONAL, V13, P66 GLEICK PH, 1992, CLIMATIC FLUCTUATION, P125 HANSEN J, 1983, MON WEATHER REV, V111, P609 HULME M, 1992, CLIMATIC FLUCTUATION, P187 ISKANDAR I, 1989, INT SEM CLIM FLUCT W KALININ GP, 1971, GLOBAL HYDROLOGY LEMA AJ, 1989, INT SEM CLIM FLUCT W MANABE S, 1987, J ATMOS SCI, V44, P1211 MITCHELL JFB, 1989, NATURE, V341, P132 OLIVER J, 1969, J TROP GEOGR, V29, P64 PIPER BS, 1986, HYDROLOG SCI J, V31, P25 SESTINI G, 1993, CLIMATIC CHANGE MEDI, P535 SHAHIN M, 1985, HYDROLOGY NILE BASIN SHAW E, 1987, PRACTICAL HYDROLOGY SUTCLIFFE JV, 1987, HYDROLOG SCI J, V32, P143 UNGANAI LS, 1996, CLIMATE RES, V6, P137 WIGLEY TML, 1993, CLIMATIC CHANGE MEDI, P15 NR 22 TC 7 J9 CLIMATE RES BP 89 EP 95 PY 1996 PD FEB 19 VL 6 IS 2 GA UD549 UT ISI:A1996UD54900002 ER PT J AU Hijmans, RJ TI The effect of climate change on global potato production SO AMERICAN JOURNAL OF POTATO RESEARCH LA English DT Article C1 Int Potato Ctr, Lima 12, Peru. RP Hijmans, RJ, Int Potato Ctr, Apartado 1558, Lima 12, Peru. AB The effect of climate change on global potato production was assessed. Potential yields were calculated with a simulation model and a grid with monthly climate data for current (1961-1990) and projected (2010-2039 and 2040-2069) conditions. The results were mapped and summarized for countries. Between 1961-1990 and 20402069 the global (terrestrial excluding Antarctica) average temperature is predicted to increase between 2.1 and 3.2 C, depending on the climate scenario. The temperature increase is smaller when changes are weighted by the potato area and particularly when adaptation of planting time and cultivars is considered (a predicted temperature increase between 1 and 1.4 C). For this period, global potential potato yield decreases by 18% to 32% (without adaptation) and by 9% to 18% (with adaptation). At high latitudes, global warming will likely lead to changes in the time of planting, the use of later-maturing cultivars, and a shift of the location of potato production. In many of these regions, changes in potato yield are likely to be relatively small, and sometimes positive. Shifting planting time or location is less feasible at lower latitudes, and in these regions global warming could have a strong negative effect on potato production. It is shown that heat-tolerant potato cultivars could be used to mitigate effects of global warming in (sub)tropical regions. CR *INT PAN CLIM CHAN, 1999, PROV CLIM CHANG REL CARTER TR, 1996, AGR FOOD SCI FINLAND, V5, P329 DAVIES A, 1996, ASPECTS APPL BIOL, V45, P63 DETEMMERMAN L, 2000, CHANGING CLIMATE POT EWING EE, 1992, HORTIC REV, V14, P89 HAVERKORT AJ, 1990, AGR SYST, V32, P251 HIJMANS RJ, 2001, AM J POTATO RES, V78, P403 HIJMANS RJ, 2003, AGR SYST, V76 HOUGHTON JT, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 JEFFREE CE, 1996, FUNCT ECOL, V10, P562 KAUKORANTA T, 1996, AGR FOOD SCI FINLAND, V5, P311 KHANNA ML, 1966, CURRENT SCI, V35, P143 KOOMAN PL, 1995, POTATO ECOLOGY MODEL, P41 KOOMAN PL, 1995, THESIS WAGENINGEN AG LEEMANS R, 1993, CLIM RES, V3, P79 LEVY D, 1984, TROP AGR, V61, P167 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 MIGLIETTA F, 1998, GLOB CHANGE BIOL, V4, P163 NEW M, 1999, J CLIMATE, V12, P829 NONHEBEL S, 1993, THESIS WAGENINGEN AG PEIRIS DR, 1996, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V79, P271 REYNOLDS MP, 1989, AM POTATO J, V66, P63 REYNOLDS MP, 1989, ANN BOT-LONDON, V64, P241 ROSENZWEIG C, 1992, GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANG, P342 ROSENZWEIG C, 1994, NATURE, V367, P133 ROSENZWEIG C, 1996, AGR SYST, V52, P455 ROSENZWEIG C, 1998, CLIMATE CHANGE GLOBA SCOTT GJ, 2000, FOOD POLICY, V25, P561 STOL W, 1991, 155 CABODLO TAI GCC, 1994, EUPHYTICA, V75, P49 VANDERZAAG P, 1988, FIELD CROP RES, V19, P167 VANKEULEN H, 1995, POTATO ECOLOGY MODEL, P357 NR 32 TC 0 J9 AM J POTATO RES BP 271 EP 279 PY 2003 PD JUL-AUG VL 80 IS 4 GA 719DQ UT ISI:000185188700006 ER PT J AU WESTING, AH TI ENVIRONMENTAL SECURITY FOR THE DANUBE BASIN SO ENVIRONMENTAL CONSERVATION LA English DT Article C1 HAMPSHIRE COLL,ECOL,AMHERST,MA 01002. RP WESTING, AH, INT PEACE RES INST,FUGLEHAUGGATA 11,N-0260 OSLO 2,NORWAY. CR 1985, UN LIST NATIONAL PAR 1987, WORLD FACTBOOK 1988, INT ATOMIC ENERGY AG, V2 1988, NEW SCI LONDON, V120, P24 1989, NEW SCI LONDON, V122, P35 BEHAR N, 1989, WISSENSCHAFTLICHE WE, V33, P20 BENEDEK P, 1980, WATER SCI TECHNOL, V13, P61 BUSNITA T, 1967, WIRTSCHAFLICHE BEDEU, V4, P26 CALDWELL LK, 1970, NAT RESOUR J, V10, P203 CSPEL A, 1984, NEW SCI LONDON, V104, P9 DOSZTANYI I, 1988, ENV RIVER DAMS GDABC FEKETE G, 1967, WIRTSCHAFTLICHE BEDE, V4, P49 FOSSI C, 1984, ENVIRON CONSERV, V11, P345 GALLIK D, 1987, WORLD MILITARY EXPEN GLENNY M, 1987, NEW SCI, V114, P32 GLENNY M, 1988, NEW SCI, V119, P28 GOROVE S, 1964, LAW POLITICS DANUBE GRIMMETT R, 1988, WORLD BIRD WATCH, V10, P8 HARDIN G, 1985, FILTERS FOLLY SURVIV KEESING, 1955, KEESINGS CONT ARCH L, V10, P193 KESSING, 1955, KEESINGS CONT ARCH L, V10, P14 KISS AC, 1983, SELECTED MULTILATERA LESSNER E, 1961, DANUBE DRAMATIC HIST LIEPOLT R, 1965, LIMNOLOGIE DONAU MAGRIS C, 1989, DANUBE OTTENDORFER LJ, 1984, WATER SCI TECHNOL, V16, P13 PERCZEL K, 1989, AMBIO, V18, P247 PFEIFFER G, 1982, DISARMAMENT STUDY SE, V7 RICH V, 1989, NATURE, V341, P377 RUDESCU L, 1967, LIEPOLT, V3, P295 SHARMAN T, 1983, GEOGR MAG, V55, P317 STANCIK A, 1988, DANUBE HYDROLOGY RIV THANT, 1963, A5409 UN GEN ASS DOC, P33 TRYBEK L, 1984, BASIC DOCUMENTS MULT VALLENTYNE JR, 1988, ENVIRON CONSERV, V15, P58 WADLOW R, 1988, TRANSNATIONAL PERSPE, V14, P6 WALDHEIM K, 1974, ACN4274 UN GEN ASS D, P265 WESTING AH, 1986, GLOBAL RESOURCES INT, P183 WESTING AH, 1988, CULTURAL NORMS WAR E WESTING AH, 1988, CULTURAL NORMS WAR E, P1 WESTING AH, 1988, MULTILATERAL TREATIE, P163 WESTING AH, 1988, NONVIOLENT CONFLICT, P151 WESTING AH, 1989, B PEACE PROPOSALS, V20, P129 WESTING AH, 1989, COMPREHENSIVE SECURI, P1 WILLOT A, 1981, UN GENERAL ASSEMBLY, V3 NR 45 TC 2 J9 ENVIRON CONSERV BP 323 EP 329 PY 1989 PD WIN VL 16 IS 4 GA DE670 UT ISI:A1989DE67000008 ER PT J AU Aggarwal, PK Mall, RK TI Climate change and rice yields in diverse agro-environments of India. II. Effect of uncertainties in scenarios and crop models on impact assessment SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 Indian Agr Res Inst, Ctr Applicat Syst Simulat, New Delhi 110012, India. RP Aggarwal, PK, Indian Agr Res Inst, Ctr Applicat Syst Simulat, NRL Bldg, New Delhi 110012, India. AB Estimates of impact of climate change on crop production could be biased depending upon the uncertainties in climate change scenarios, region of study, crop models used for impact assessment and the level of management. This study reports the results of a study where the impact of various climate change scenarios has been assessed on grain yields of irrigated rice with two popular crop simulation models- Ceres-Rice and ORYZA1N at different levels of N management. The results showed that the direct effect of climate change on rice crops in different agroclimatic regions in India would always be positive irrespective of the various uncertainties. Rice yields increased between 1.0 and 16.8% in pessimistic scenarios of climate change depending upon the level of management and model used. These increases were between 3.5 and 33.8% in optimistic scenarios. At current as well as improved level of management, southern and western parts of India which currently have relatively lower temperatures compared to northern and eastern regions, are likely to show greater sensitivity in rice yields under climate change. The response to climate change is small at low N management compared to optimal management. The magnitude of this impact can be biased upto 32% depending on the uncertainty in climate change scenario, level of management and crop model used. These conclusions are highly dependent on the specific thresholds of phenology and photosynthesis to change in temperature used in the models. Caution is needed in using the impact assessment results made with the average simulated grain yields and mean changes in climatic parameters. CR *GCTE, 1994, GLOB CHANG TERR EC F ADAMS RM, 1988, W J AGR EC, V68, P886 ADAMS RM, 1995, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V30, P147 AGGARWAL PK, 1995, AGR SYST, V48, P361 AGGARWAL PK, 1997, FIELD CROP RES, V51, P5 ALOCILJA EC, 1991, PREDICTING CROP PHEN, P181 EWERT F, 1999, EUR J AGRON, V10, P231 FANGMEIER A, 1999, EUR J AGRON, V10, P215 GIORGI F, 1998, REGIONAL IMPACTS CLI, P429 KIMBALL BA, 1983, AGRON J, V75, P779 MALL RK, 2002, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V52, P315 MITCHELL JFB, 1990, CLIMATE CHANGE IPCC, P131 MITCHELL RAC, 1999, EUR J AGRON, V10, P205 PORTER JR, 1993, FIELD CROP RES, V33, P131 RABBINGE R, 1999, AB DLO GRADUATE SCH, V21, P153 ROSENZWEIG C, 1994, NATURE, V367, P133 SINGH U, 1993, USERS GUIDE CERES RI, P131 WATSON RT, 1998, REGIONAL IMPACTS CLI, V1, P1 WOLF J, 1996, CLIMATE RES, V7, P253 NR 19 TC 6 J9 CLIMATIC CHANGE BP 331 EP 343 PY 2002 PD FEB VL 52 IS 3 GA 510KG UT ISI:000173206800005 ER PT J AU Sivakumar, MVK TI Interactions between climate and desertification SO AGRICULTURAL AND FOREST METEOROLOGY LA English DT Article C1 World Meteorol Org, CH-1211 Geneva 2, Switzerland. RP Sivakumar, MVK, World Meteorol Org, 7bis,Ave Paix, CH-1211 Geneva 2, Switzerland. AB Deserts are known to mankind, but the term desertification has always been an elusive concept. It is now defined in the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) as land degradation in the drylands (land failing within arid, semi-arid and dry sub-humid areas) resulting from various factors, including climatic variations and human activities. This definition, which is now being used worldwide to describe desertification and its impacts, leads to the need to consider carefully the two-way interactions between climate and desertification. Dramatic changes in agricultural practices during the last several decades are one of the main driving forces for land degradation in the drylands and examples of land degradation are given for several regions around the world. The effects of desertification on climate have been described mainly in terms of changes in land use and land cover leading to land degradation; overgrazing; biomass burning and atmospheric emissions; agriculture's contribution to air pollution; forest and woodland clearing and accelerated wind erosion; anthropogenic land disturbances and wind erosion; and the impact of irrigated agriculture on surface conditions in drylands. It is equally important to consider the impact of dryland climates on soils and vegetation and the impact of climate change on desertification. It is important to adopt uniform criteria and methods to assess desertification and encourage monitoring of dryland degradation in all the regions around the world. To better understand the interactions between climate and desertification, it is also important to identify the sources and sinks of dryland carbon, aerosols and trace gases in drylands. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 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Environm Agcy, Shrewsbury SY3 8BB, Salop, England. RP Procter, C, Agr Dev & Advisory Serv, Environm Syst, Wergs Rd, Wolverhampton WV6 8TQ, England. AB Water use is expected to increase and climate change scenarios indicate the need for more frequent water abstraction. Abstracting groundwater may have a detrimental effect on soil moisture availability for crop growth and yields. This work presents an elegant and robust method for identifying zones of crop vulnerability to abstraction. Archive groundwater level datasets were used to generate a composite groundwater surface that was subtracted from a digital terrain model. The result was the depth from surface to groundwater and identified areas underlain by shallow groundwater. Knowledge from an expert agronomist was used to define classes of risk in terms of their depth below ground level. Combining information on the permeability of geological drift types further refined the assessment of the risk of crop growth vulnerability. The nature of the mapped output is one that is easy to communicate to the intended farming audience because of the general familiarity of mapped information. Such Geographic Information System (GIS)-based products can play a significant role in the characterisation of catchments under the EU Water Framework Directive especially in the process of public liaison that is fundamental to the setting of priorities for management change. The creation of a baseline allows the impact of future increased water abstraction rates to be modelled and the vulnerability maps are in a format that can be readily understood by the various stakeholders. This methodology can readily be extended to encompass additional data layers and for a range of groundwater vulnerability issues including water resources, ecological impacts, nitrate and phosphorus. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *EC, 2000, OFFICIAL J EUROPEA L, V327, P1 *ENV AG, 2002, MAN WAT ABSTR CATCHM *WORLD WAT COUNC, 2000, WORLD WAT VIS COMM R ACREMAN MC, 2000, J CHART INST WATER E, V14, P200 ALADAMAT RAN, 2003, APPL GEOGR, V23, P303 CLEVELAND WS, 1979, J AM STAT ASSOC, V74, P829 CLEVELAND WS, 1988, J AM STAT ASSOC, V83, P596 CRESSIE N, 1985, MATH GEOL, V17, P563 CRESSIE NAC, 1991, STAT SPATIAL DATA DOWNING RA, 1998, GROUNDWATER OUR HIDD DUNN SM, 2003, WATER SCI TECHNOL, V48, P127 HAINING R, 1990, SPATIAL DATA ANAL SO HULME M, CLIMATE CHANGE SCENA JOURNEL AG, 1978, MINING GEOSTATICS LAKE IR, 2003, J ENVIRON MANAGE, V68, P315 LORD E, 2003, WFD10 SNIFFER LOVETT AA, 2001, NC7079NVZUEA ENV AG LOVETT AA, 2001, PROT GROUNDW P INT C LYTTON L, 2003, WATER SCI TECHNOL, V47, P1 MUNOZREINOSO JC, 2001, J HYDROL, V242, P197 OLIVER MA, 1991, AREA, V23, P19 RIVOIRARD J, 1994, DISJUNCTIVE KRIGING STREVENS AP, 1999, HYDROL PROCESS, V13, P487 SVETLITCHNYI AA, 2003, J HYDROL, V277, P50 TRANGMAR BB, 1985, ADV AGRON, V38, P45 WEATHERHEAD EK, 1997, IRRIGATION DEMAND ON NR 26 TC 0 J9 J ENVIRON MANAGE BP 296 EP 306 PY 2006 PD NOV VL 81 IS 3 GA 100HZ UT ISI:000241660300010 ER PT J AU Weinstein, MP Turner, RE Reed, DJ TI Prologue: Building sustainable coastal landscapes SO RESTORATION ECOLOGY LA English DT Editorial Material CR ARROW K, 1995, SCIENCE, V268, P250 DAILY GC, 1996, ECOL APPL, V6, P19 HOLLING CS, 2000, CONSERV ECOL, V4, P1 KATES RW, 2001, SCIENCE, V292, P641 KAUFMANN RK, 1995, ECOL ECON, V15, P109 LUBCHENCO J, 1998, SCIENCE, V279, P491 NR 6 TC 0 J9 RESTOR ECOL BP 152 EP 153 PY 2005 PD MAR VL 13 IS 1 GA 902YL UT ISI:000227392500018 ER PT J AU Wrona, FJ Prowse, TD Reist, JD Hobbie, JE Levesque, LMJ Vincent, WF TI Climate impacts on Arctic freshwater ecosystems and fisheries: Background, rationale and approach of the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (ACIA) SO AMBIO LA English DT Article C1 Univ Victoria, Dept Geog, Natl Water Res Inst,Environm Canada, Water Sci & Technol Directorate, Victoria, BC V8W 2Y2, Canada. Univ Victoria, Dept Geog, Natl Water Res Inst Environm Canada, Water & Climate Impacts Res Ctr, Victoria, BC V8W 2Y2, Canada. Fisheries & Oceans Canada, Winnipeg, MB R3T 2N6, Canada. Marine Biol Lab, Ctr Ecosyst, Woods Hole, MA 02543 USA. Environm Canada, Natl Hydrol Res Ctr, Saskatoon, SK S7N 3H5, Canada. Univ Laval, Dept Biol, Ste Foy, PQ G1K 7P4, Canada. Univ Laval, Ctr Etud Nord, Quebec City, PQ G1K 7P4, Canada. RP Wrona, FJ, Univ Victoria, Dept Geog, Natl Water Res Inst,Environm Canada, Water Sci & Technol Directorate, POB 1700 STN CSC, Victoria, BC V8W 2Y2, Canada. AB Changes in climate and ultraviolet radiation levels in the Arctic will have far-reaching impacts, affecting aquatic species at various trophic levels, the physical and chemical environment that makes up their habitat, and the processes that act on and within freshwater ecosystems. Interactions of climatic variables, such as temperature and precipitation, with freshwater ecosystems are highly complex and can propagate through the ecosystem in ways that are difficult to project. This is partly due to a poor understanding of arctic freshwater systems and their basic interrelationships with climate and other environmental variables, and partly due to a paucity of long-term freshwater monitoring sites and integrated hydro-ecological research programs in the Arctic. The papers in this special issue are an abstraction of the analyses performed by 25 international experts and their associated networks on Arctic freshwater hydrology and related aquatic ecosystems that was initially published by the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (ACIA) in 2005 as "Chapter 8 - Freshwater Ecosystems and Fisheries". The papers provide a broad overview of the general hydrological and ecological features of the various freshwater ecosystems in the Arctic, including descriptions of each ACIA region, followed by a review of historical changes in freshwater systems during the Holocene. This is followed by an assessment of the effects of climate change on broad-scale hydro-ecology; aquatic biota and ecosystem structure and function; and arctic fish and fisheries. Potential synergistic and cumulative effects are also discussed, as are the roles of ultraviolet radiation and contaminants. The nature and complexity of many of the effects are illustrated using case studies from around the circumpolar north, together with a discussion of important threshold responses (i.e., those that produce stepwise and/or nonlinear effects). The issue concludes with summary the key findings, a list of gaps in scientific understanding, and policy-related recommendations. CR *AMAP, 1997, ARCT POLL ISS STAT E *AMAP, 1998, ASS REP ARCT POLL IS *AMAP, 2002, ART POLL 2002 PERS O *CAFF, 2001, ARCT FLOR FAUN STAT WATSON RT, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, V1, P1 ANTLE JM, 2001, J AGR RESOUR ECON, V26, P344 BLAIS JM, 2001, AMBIO, V30, P410 CALLAGHAN TV, 2004, AMBIO, V33, P385 CALLAGHAN TV, 2005, ARCTIC CLIMATE IMPAC, P244 CARPENTER SR, 1992, ANNU REV ECOL SYST, V23, P119 HESSEN DO, 2002, ECOL STUD, V153 HUNTINGTON HH, 2005, ARCTIC CLIMATE IMPAC, P61 KATTSOV VM, 2005, ARCTIC CLIMATE IMPAC, P99 LOENG H, 2005, ARCTIC CLIMATE IMPAC, P453 LOENG H, 2005, ARCTIC CLIMATE IMPAC, P454 MEYER JL, 1999, J AM WATER RESOUR AS, V35, P1373 PROWSE TD, 2001, THREATS SOURCES DRIN PROWSE TD, 2006, AMBIO, V35, P332 PROWSE TD, 2006, AMBIO, V35, P339 PROWSE TD, 2006, AMBIO, V35, P347 REIST JD, 2006, AMBIO, V35, P381 REIST JD, 2006, AMBIO, V35, P402 ROUSE WR, 1997, HYDROL PROCESS, V11, P873 SCHEFFER M, 2001, NATURE, V413, P591 SCHINDLER DW, 1996, LIMNOL OCEANOGR, V41, P1004 VILHJALMSSON H, 2005, ARCTIC CLIMATE IMPAC, P691 VINCENT WF, 2000, ARCTIC ENV PEOPLE PO, P197 WATSON RT, 1998, REGIONAL IMPACTS CLI, V1, P1 WATSON RT, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 WRONA FJ, 2005, ARCTIC CLIMATE IMPAC, P353 WRONA FJ, 2006, AMBIO, V35, P326 WRONA FJ, 2006, AMBIO, V35, P359 WRONA FJ, 2006, AMBIO, V35, P388 WRONA JF, 2006, AMBIO, V35, P411 NR 34 TC 8 J9 AMBIO BP 326 EP 329 PY 2006 PD NOV VL 35 IS 7 GA 119NU UT ISI:000243019800002 ER PT J AU Lowe, R TI Preparing the built environment for climate change SO BUILDING RESEARCH AND INFORMATION LA English DT Editorial Material C1 Leeds Metropolitan Univ, Leeds LS1 3HE, W Yorkshire, England. RP Lowe, R, Leeds Metropolitan Univ, Leeds LS1 3HE, W Yorkshire, England. CR 2002, P TYND CIB INT C CLI *IPCC, 2001, CLIM CHANG 2001 AD C CAMILLERI M, 2001, BUILD RES INF, V29, P440 DUPLESSIS C, 2003, BUILD RES INF, V31, P240 GRAVES HM, 2000, POTENTIAL IMPLICATIO HERTIN J, 2003, BUILD RES INF, V31, P278 HULME M, 1998, CLIMATE CHANGE SCENA LARSSON N, 2003, BUILD RES INF, V31, P231 LISO KR, 2003, BUILD RES INF, V31, P200 LOWE RJ, 2001, 0104 CRISP CTR BUILD LOWE RJ, 2001, BUILD RES INF, V29, P409 MILLS E, 2003, BUILD RES INF, V31, P257 SANDERS CH, 2003, BUILD RES INF, V31, P210 SHIMODA Y, 2003, BUILD RES INF, V31, P222 STEEMERS K, 2003, BUILD RES INF, V31, P291 NR 15 TC 8 J9 BUILDING RES INFORM BP 195 EP 199 PY 2003 PD MAY-AUG VL 31 IS 3-4 GA 688EE UT ISI:000183419700001 ER PT J AU Deshingkar, P TI Climate change adaptation in India: A case study of forest systems in Himachal Pradesh SO INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENT AND POLLUTION LA English DT Article C1 Stockholm Environm Inst, S-10314 Stockholm, Sweden. RP Deshingkar, P, Stockholm Environm Inst, Box 2142, S-10314 Stockholm, Sweden. AB Climate-induced changes in the forest sector could have far-reaching consequences for rural communities and the economy in developing countries. Despite the many uncertainties involved in predicting impacts, it makes social and economic sense to identify adaptation options now. The case study of Himachal Pradesh shows that, for adaptation measures to be realistic, the needs of different stakeholders with an interest in forest products and services must be addressed. It is recommended that existing programmes to resolve conflicts between different stakeholders be strengthened. Diversification of occupation structures has also been identified as an important strategy to reduce the vulnerability of forest-dependent communities. Additional investment may be required in new areas of research, such as tree genetics programmes, in order to facilitate the selection of species that are resistant to climate change. CR *IIED UEA, 1993, CLIM SCEN IND SUBC H *IPCC, 1990, CLIM CHANG IPCC SCI *IPCC, 1995, IPCC 2 ASS CLIM CHAN ALLEN LH, 1990, J ENVIRON QUAL, V19, P15 DAVIS MB, 1985, QUATERNARY RES, V23, P327 DESHINGKAR P, 1997, ADAPTING CLIMATE CHA DESHINGKAR P, 1998, IN PRESS WORKSH IMP DOGRA PD, 1981, INDIAN FOREST, V107, P191 DOGRA PD, 1992, STATUS INDIAN FOREST, P243 EMANUEL WR, 1985, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V7, P29 GILL BS, 1992, STATUS INDIAN FOREST, P261 GUHA R, 1983, ECON POLIT WEEKLY, V18, P1883 GUHA R, 1983, ECON POLIT WEEKLY, V18, P1940 HALPIN PN, 1995, GLOBAL CHANGE NATURA LAL M, 1995, CURR SCI INDIA, V69, P752 NORBY RJ, 1986, PLANT PHYSIOL, V82, P83 OECHEL WC, 1994, NATURE, V371, P500 PETERS RL, 1985, BIOSCIENCE, V35, P707 PRENTICE IC, 1992, J BIOGEOGR, V19, P117 PURI GS, 1968, TROPICAL ECOLOGY, V36, P1 SAXENA NC, 1992, JOINT FOREST MANAGEM SHARMA LR, 1991, INDIAN J AGR ECON, V46, P422 SMITH JB, 1996, ADAPTING CLIMATE CHA SMITH TM, 1990, GLOBAL FORESTS SOULE ME, 1991, SCIENCE, V253, P744 WIGLEY TML, 1992, NATURE, V357, P293 NR 26 TC 0 J9 INT J ENVIRON POLLUTION BP 186 EP 197 PY 1998 VL 9 IS 2-3 GA ZQ601 UT ISI:000073884400004 ER PT J AU Rapport, DJ TI The health of ecology and the ecology of health SO HUMAN AND ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT LA English DT Article C1 Univ Guelph, Coll Fac Environm Design & Rural Dev, Dept Rural Planning & Dev, Guelph, ON N1G 2W1, Canada. Univ Western Ontario, Fac Med & Dent, Dept Pharmacol & Toxicol, London, ON N6A 5B7, Canada. RP Rapport, DJ, Univ Guelph, Coll Fac Environm Design & Rural Dev, Dept Rural Planning & Dev, Room 107,Johnston Hall, Guelph, ON N1G 2W1, Canada. AB The health of ecology refers to ecosystem health - an extension of the concept of health to the ecosystem level. Health is reflected in the absence of distress syndrome, and by productivity, organization and resilience that characterize sustainability in the Earth's ecosystems. Transformation of ecosystems under stress from healthy to pathological conditions is often irreversible, even when the initial stress factors are removed. The ecology of health refers to the fact that human health is influenced by ecological conditions. The breakdown of ecosystems under stress are often conducive to an increase in human pathogens, recycling toxic substances, reduced yields and compromised food supplies, scarcity of potable water, and air pollution, all of which increases human health vulnerability. Addressing human health issues from an ecological perspective takes account of the social, ecological, and biophysical determinants. This opens the door to potential interventions "upstream", in order to prevent illness, in addition to treating the disease once the malady has occurred. CR BORMANN FH, 1996, ANNU REV ENERG ENV, V21, P1 COSTANZA R, 1992, ECOSYSTEM HLTH NEW G HUQ A, 1996, ECOSYST HEALTH, V2, P198 HUTTON J, 1788, T ROY SOC EDINBURGH, V1, P209 MAGEAU MT, 1995, ECOSYST HEALTH, V1, P201 MCMICHAEL AJ, 1993, PLANETARY OVERLOAD G MCMICHAEL AJ, 1995, ECOSYST HEALTH, V1, P23 MCMICHAEL AJ, 1997, ECOSYST HEALTH, V3, P200 RAPPORT DJ, 1979, B ECOL SOC AM, V60, P180 RAPPORT DJ, 1985, AM NAT, V125, P617 RAPPORT DJ, 1989, PERSPECT BIOL MED, V33, P120 RAPPORT DJ, 1995, EVALUATING MONITORIN, P5 RAPPORT DJ, 1997, DISTURBANCE RECOVERY, P73 RAPPORT DJ, 1997, QUALITY ASSURANCE, V5, P221 RAPPORT DJ, 1998, J ENVIRON MANAGE, V53, P1 RAPPORT DJ, 1998, TRENDS ECOL EVOL, V13, P397 RAPPORT DJ, 1999, BIOSCIENCE, V49, P193 RAPPORT DJ, 1999, T ROYAL SOC CANADA 6, V9, P3 RAPPORT DJ, 2001, EOLSS FORERUNNER VOL RAPPORT DJ, 2001, IN PRESS ECOSYSTEM H, V7 RAPPORT DJ, 2002, IN PRESS CONSERVATIO RIBBLE C, 1997, CAN VET J, V38, P485 SCHAEFFER DJ, 1988, ENVIRON MANAGE, V12, P445 SOMERVILLE MA, 2000, TRANSDISCIPLINARITY TANSLEY AG, 1935, ECOLOGY, V16, P284 TESTER PA, 1996, ECOSYST HEALTH, V2, P191 VITOUSEK PM, 1997, SCIENCE, V277, P464 YAZVENKO SB, 1997, J FOREST, V95, P16 NR 28 TC 2 J9 HUM ECOL RISK ASSESSMENT BP 205 EP 213 PY 2002 PD JAN VL 8 IS 1 GA 520MZ UT ISI:000173786800018 ER PT J AU Blaikie, PM Muldavin, JSS TI Upstream, downstream, China, India: The politics of environment in the Himalayan region SO ANNALS OF THE ASSOCIATION OF AMERICAN GEOGRAPHERS LA English DT Review C1 Univ E Anglia, Sch Dev Studies, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. Sarah Lawrence Coll, Dept Geog, Bronxville, NY 10708 USA. RP Muldavin, JSS, Univ E Anglia, Sch Dev Studies, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. AB There is a long history of debate about the changing Hindu Kush-Himalaya (HKH) environment, but with important disjunctures between research, international environmental agendas and institutions, and various different domestic policies at the national level. Within academe, a retreat from the Theory of Himalayan Environmental Degradation (THED) since the late 1980s has not been reflected to any degree in domestic policy agendas of India and China. Here, we make a comparative analysis of the "upstream downstream" debates (which claim that the resource use practices of upstream users have serious detrimental costs to those downstream) in two of the most powerful and populous countries of the HKH region: India and China. We find that the rejection of THED is, on the whole, contradicted but sometimes appropriated by different national players within important political arenas, and in this sense it becomes a discursive pawn in "games of the state." Parts of the retreat from THED are simply ignored, and others are actively resisted. Set against these discursive maneuvers within domestic politics, the academic "state of the game" has undergone profound changes, shifting away from technically derived and science-led imperatives of environmental management toward issues of plural environmental truths, environmental justice, and hybrid knowledge. However, national debates have taken their individual routes, shaped largely by national political events. 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NANFANG JITILINQU JI ZHANG J, 1992, EC STUDY CHINESE FOR ZHANG Z, 1997, QUANGUO SHI LINYE SH ZHAO J, 1993, SOCIAL FORESTRY YUNN ZHOU S, 1994, LUMAN YAZHOU DIYO DO, P435 ZURICK D, 1999, HIMALAYA LIFE EDGE W NR 196 TC 0 J9 ANN ASSN AMER GEOGR BP 520 EP 548 PY 2004 PD SEP VL 94 IS 3 GA 848LP UT ISI:000223469500007 ER PT J AU Beer, T TI Ecological risk assessment and quantitative consequence analysis SO HUMAN AND ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT LA English DT Article C1 CSIRO, Environm Risk Network, Atmospher Res, Aspendale, Vic 3195, Australia. RP Beer, T, CSIRO, Environm Risk Network, Atmospher Res, 107-121 Stn St, Aspendale, Vic 3195, Australia. AB Ecological risk actually refers to two separate things. First, risk to the environment as a result of human activity. Contaminated sites are an example. Second, risk to the biota-flora, fauna, and people-as a result of environmental hazards. Geophysical risk arising from natural hazards is an example. Risk is a combination of likelihoods and consequences. This article examines methods used to quantify the consequences. At the general level, such methods are linked to the methods used to quantify the likelihoods and thus to quantify the risks. It is possible to use the existing frameworks of risk management, health risk assessment, and ecological risk analysis to develop a risk management framework that is suitable for ecological risk assessment. CR ANAND P, 2002, SCIENCE, V295, P1839 BEER T, 1990, APPL ENV METEOROLOGI BEER T, 1993, MODELLING CHANGE ENV, P453 BEER T, 1995, 102 ACT SUP SCI BEER T, 1997, WORLD RES REV, V9, P113 BEER T, 2000, RISK MANAGEMENT FUTU, P39 BEER T, 2001, NAT HAZARDS, V23, P157 BEER T, 2003, RISK SCI SUSTAINABIL, P39 BLAIKIE PM, 1994, RISK NATURAL HAZARDS, V1, P1 BLOCH M, 1954, HIST CRAFT BROWN T, 2000, ANLNBSMD000002 US DE BUNDE A, 2002, SCI DISASTERS CHRISTIE M, 2000, OZONE LAYER PHILOS S COLES S, 2001, INTRO STAT MODELING COOKE RM, 1991, EXPERTS UNCERTAINTY COVEY C, 1994, GLOBAL PLANET CHANGE, V9, P263 GLENN JC, 1997, STATE FUTURE GLENN JC, 1998, STATE FUTURE GRUBLER A, 2001, NATURE, V412, P15 GUMBEL EJ, 1958, STAT EXTREMES HARDING R, 1998, ENV DECISION MAKING HARDING R, 1999, PERSPECTIVES PRECAUT JEFFREYS H, 1948, THEORY PROBABILITY JONES RN, 2001, NAT HAZARDS, V23, P197 JONES RN, 2003, ENVEPOCGSP200322FINA KASPERSON JX, 2001, GLOBAL ENV RISK KOTZ S, 2000, EXTREME VALUE DISTRI KREBS CJ, 1978, ECOLOGY EXPT ANAL DI LEADBETTER MR, 1983, EXTREMES RELATED PRO LORENZ EN, 1963, J ATMOS SCI, V20, P131 LORENZ EN, 1993, ESSENCE CHAOS MAHLMAN JD, 1998, ANNU REV ENERG ENV, V23, P83 MCMICHAEL AJ, 2001, HUMAN FRONTIERS ENV MORGAN MG, 1990, UNCERTAINTY GUIDE DE MORGAN MG, 1995, ENVIRON SCI TECHNOL, V29, P468 ORIORDAN T, 2002, ENV CHANGE CLIMATE H, P311 PITTOCK AB, 1993, MODELLING CHANGE ENV, P481 PITTOCK AB, 2001, NATURE, V413, P249 RICCI PF, 2003, ENVIRON INT, V29, P1 VOSE D, 2000, RISK ANAL QUANTITATI WATSON RT, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 WOO G, 1999, MATH NATURAL CATASTR WYNNE B, 1992, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V2, P111 NR 43 TC 0 J9 HUM ECOL RISK ASSESSMENT BP 51 EP 65 PY 2006 PD FEB VL 12 IS 1 GA 017HU UT ISI:000235685500007 ER PT J AU Pelling, M High, C TI Understanding adaptation: What can social capital offer assessments of adaptive capacity? SO GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS LA English DT Article C1 Univ London Kings Coll, Dept Geog, London WC2R 2LS, England. RP Pelling, M, Univ London Kings Coll, Dept Geog, London WC2R 2LS, England. AB The burgeoning interest in social capital within the climate change community represents a welcome move towards a concern for the behavioural elements of adaptive action and capacity. In this paper the case is put forward for a critical engagement with social capital. There is need for an open debate on the conceptual and analytical traps and opportunities that social capital presents. The paper contrasts three schools of thought on social capital and uses a social capital lens to map out current and future areas for research on adaptation to climate change. It identifies opportunities for using social capital to research adaptive capacity and action within communities of place and communities of practice. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 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Univ Hamburg, D-20146 Hamburg, Germany. Vrije Univ, D-20146 Hamburg, Germany. Carnegie Mellon Univ, D-20146 Hamburg, Germany. RP Yohe, GW, Wesleyan Univ, Dept Econ, Middletown, CT 06459 USA. AB This paper offers a practically motivated method for evaluating systems' abilities to handle external stress, The method is designed to assess the potential contributions of various adaptation options to improving systems' coping capacities by focusing attention directly on the underlying determinants of adaptive capacity. The method should be sufficiently flexible to accommodate diverse applications, hose contexts are location specific and path dependent without imposing the straightjacket constraints of a "one size fits all" cookbook approach. Nonetheless, the method should produce unitless indicators that can be employed to judge the relative vulnerabilities of diverse systems to multiple stresses and to their potential interactions. An artificial application is employed to describe the development of the method and to illustrate how it might be applied. Some empirical evidence is offered to underscore the significance of the determinants of adaptive capacity in determining vulnerability these are the determinants upon which the method is constructed, The method is, finally. applied directly to expert judgments of six different adaptations that could reduce vulnerability in the Netherlands to increased flooding along the Rhine River. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *INT PAN CLIM CHAN, 2001, IPCC 2000 IMP AD VUL BERZ GA, 1999, MITIGATION ADAPTATIO, V4, P283 DEFREITAS CR, 1989, POPULATION DISASTER, P98 DEVRIES J, 1985, CLIMATE IMPACT ASSES, P273 DOWNING TE, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE WORLD, P662 DOWNING TE, 1997, MITIGATION ADAPTATIO, V2, P19 HEWITT J, 1971, HAZARDOUSNESS PLACE, P312 KANE SM, 1992, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V21, P17 KARL TR, 1998, B AM METEOROL SOC, V79, P231 MEARNS LO, 1997, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V35, P367 OLSTHOORN AA, 2001, FLOODS FLOOD MANAGEM, P43 PITTOCK AB, 2000, ENVIRON MONIT ASSESS, V61, P9 SMIT B, 1999, MITIGATION ADAPTATIO, V4, P199 SMIT B, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P223 SMITHERS J, 1997, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V7, P129 TOL RSJ, 2001, FLOODS FLOOD MANAGEM VANDERGRIJP NM, 2001, FLOODS FLOOD MANAGEM, P5 VANDERWERFF PE, 2001, FLOODS FLOOD MANAGEM, P89 YOHE GW, 1996, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V32, P387 YOHE GW, 1998, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V38, P437 NR 20 TC 5 J9 GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANGE BP 25 EP 40 PY 2002 PD APR VL 12 IS 1 GA 551TL UT ISI:000175577700004 ER PT J AU WESTGATE, K TI DISASTER PREVENTION AND MITIGATION - MOTIVES AND METHODS SO DISASTERS LA English DT Editorial Material RP WESTGATE, K, OXFAM,OXFORD,ENGLAND. CR *UN OFF DIS REL CO, 1977, DIS PREV MIT COMP CU, V5 BURTON I, 1978, ENV HAZARD, V1, P1 TAYLOR VA, 1978, DISASTERS THEORY RES, P276 NR 3 TC 0 J9 DISASTERS BP 239 EP 241 PY 1979 VL 3 IS 3 GA HS011 UT ISI:A1979HS01100001 ER PT J AU Young, OR Berkhout, F Gallopin, GC Janssen, MA Ostrom, E Leeuw, SVD TI The globalization of socio-ecological systems: An agenda for scientific research SO GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS LA English DT Article C1 Arizona State Univ, Sch Human Evolut & Social Change, Tempe, AZ 85287 USA. Arizona State Univ, Sch Comp & Informat, Tempe, AZ 85287 USA. Indiana Univ, Dept Polit Sci, Bloomington, IN 47408 USA. Indiana Univ, Workship Polit Theory & Policy Anal, Bloomington, IN 47408 USA. Univ Calif Santa Barbara, Bern Sch Environm Sci & Management, Santa Barbara, CA 93106 USA. Vrije Univ Amsterdam, Inst Environm Studies, IVM, NL-1081 HV Amsterdam, Netherlands. UN, ECLAC, Santiago, Chile. RP Janssen, MA, Arizona State Univ, Sch Human Evolut & Social Change, Box 872402, Tempe, AZ 85287 USA. AB We argue that globalization is a central feature of coupled human-environment systems or, as we call them, socio-ecological systems (SESs). In this article, we focus on the effects of globalization on the resilience, vulnerability, and adaptability of these systems. We begin with a brief discussion of key terms, arguing that socio-economic resilience regularly substitutes for biophysical resilience in SESs with consequences that are often unforeseen. A discussion of several mega-trends (e.g. the rise of mega-cities, the demand for hydrocarbons, the revolution in information technologies) underpins our argument. We then proceed to identify key analytical dimensions of globalization, including rising connectedness, increased speed, spatial stretching, and declining diversity. We show how each of these phenomena can cut both ways in terms of impacts on the resilience and vulnerability of SESs. A particularly important insight flowing from this analysis centers on the reversal of the usual conditions in which large-scale things are slow and durable while small-scale things are fast and ephemeral. The fact that SESs are reflexive can lead either to initiatives aimed at avoiding or mitigating the dangers of globalization or to positive feedback processes that intensify the impacts of globalization. In the concluding section, we argue for sustained empirical research regarding these concerns and make suggestions about ways to enhance the incentives for individual researchers to work on these matters. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 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RP MIROVITSKAYA, NS, RUSSIAN ACAD SCI,INST WORLD ECON & INT RELAT,DEPT OCEAN AFFAIRS,23 PROFSOYUZNAYA ST,MOSCOW 117418,USSR. AB As regional maritime powers and bordering coastal States, both Russia and the USA should lead in the process of creating an international regime of environmental security for ecosystems in the North Pacific/Bering Sea region. Fisheries depletion, interception of anadromous species on the high seas, and drift-netting have each contributed to conflicts among 'victim' and 'culprit' States. Depletion of walleye pollock and protection of salmon, marine mammals, and seabirds in North Pacific/Bering Sea ecosystems are interconnected problems of international environmental security. Through this analysis, we emphasize temporal evolution of environmental protection and security issues, displacement of identical protection issues from international to domestic levels, and geographic displacement of management problems arising from changing jurisdictional regimes. We also contrast a large disparity between boundary/management lines and 'ecosystem limits': even if management units can be brought into conformity with ecological interdependencies, they are unlikely to reflect current political realities. A new and truly comprehensive regime for environmental security will require multilateral cooperation on fishery conservation, protection of endangered species, and joint monitoring of associated ecosystems in this subarctic region. CR 1973, BERINGOVA MORIA, V1 1982, TIKHII OKEAN, P303 1983, MORFOLOGIIA STRUKTUR 1984, RASPREDELENIE OCENKA, P2 1985, BIOL RESURSI TIKHOGO, P159 1986, BIOL RESURSI TIKHOGO, P389 1987, DEC SPEC C CONC NEW 1990, BERINGOVA MORIA, V2 *FAO, 1970, 710 FISH CIRC *FAO, 1989, COFI89INF DOC, P22 *INPFC, 1985, 32ND P ANN M, P8 *INPFC, 1987, 34TH P ANN M, P17 AINLEY DG, 1981, FISHERY B, V79, P800 BIRMAN IB, 1980, KOSNOVAM PROGNOZIROV, P17 FLUHERTY D, 1979, OCEAN DEV INT LAW, V6, P11 JOHNSTON DM, 1990, OCEAN DEV INT LAW, V21, P5 JONES L, 1990, OCT IWS WORKSH MORT KOLMOGOROV D, 1984, RYBNOE KHOZIAISTVO, P69 LARKIN PA, 1988, FISH POPULATION DYNA, P153 MILES EL, 1982, MANAGEMENT MARINE RE, P18 MILES EL, 1989, OCEAN DEV INT LAW, V20, P343 NISHIMURA K, 1987, 34TH ANN M INPFC VAN SPRINGER AM, 1986, MAR ECOL-PROG SER, V32, P1 TWITCHELL M, 1989, OCEAN DEV INT L, V20, P409 VRONSKII B, 1985, RYBNOE KHOZIAISTVO, P34 WOOSTER WS, 1986, RECENT PICES PAPERS YOUNG OR, 1989, AGE ARCTIC HOT CONFL YOUNG OR, 1989, INT ORG, V43 ZILANOV V, 1988, RYBNOIE KHOSIAISTVO, P45 ZILANOV V, 1989, MIROVOE RYBOLOVSTVO, P84 ZILANOV, 1989, MIROVOE RYBOLOVSTVO, P74 NR 31 TC 1 J9 MAR POLICY BP 243 EP 258 PY 1992 PD JUL VL 16 IS 4 GA JM514 UT ISI:A1992JM51400001 ER PT J AU OBrien, KL Leichenko, RM Kelkar, U Venema, H Aandahl, G Tompkins, H Javed, A Bhadwal, S Barg, S Nygaard, L West, J TI Mapping vulnerability to multiple stressors: climate change and globalization in India SO GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS LA English DT Article C1 CICERO, N-0318 Oslo, Norway. Rutgers State Univ, Dept Geog, Piscataway, NJ 08854 USA. Tata Energy Res Inst, New Delhi 110003, India. IISD, Winnipeg, MB R3B 0Y4, Canada. RP OBrien, KL, CICERO, POB 1129, N-0318 Oslo, Norway. AB There is growing recognition in the human dimensions research communuity that climate change impact studies must take into account the effects of other ongoing global changes. Yet there has been no systematic methodology to study climate change vulnerability in the context of multiple stressors. Using the example of Indian agriculture, this paper presents a methodology for investigating regional vulnerability to climate change in combination with other global stressors. This method, which relies on both vulnerability mapping and local-level case studies, may be used to assess differential vulnerability for any particular sector within a nation or region. and it can serve as a basis for targeting policy interventions. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *CGWB, 1996, GROUNDW STAT 1996 *CMIE, 2000, PROF DISTR *NATMO, 1980, NAT THEM MAPP ORG *NBSS LUP, 1994, IND SOIL DEGR HUM IN *UNIDO, 1995, IND GLOB AGGARWAL PK, 2002, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V52, P331 BAGLA P, 2002, SCIENCE, V297, P1265 BHALLA GS, 1994, EC LIBERALISATION IN CHAUDHURY P, 1998, EC LIBERALISATION IN, P256 CONROY ME, 1993, J INTERAMERICAN STUD, V34, P1 DEARDORFF AV, 2000, SOCIAL DIMENSIONS US DINAR A, 1998, 402 WORLD BANK DOWNING TE, 2000, CLIMATE CHANGE VULNE DREZE J, 2002, INDIA DEV PARTICIPAT FREEBAIRN DK, 1995, WORLD DEV, V23, P265 GADGIL S, 1995, CURR SCI INDIA, V69, P649 GOLDMAN A, 1995, WORLD DEV, V23, P243 GULATI A, 1999, ECON POLIT WEEKLY, V34, P41 GULATI A, 1999, INDIAS EC REFORMS DE, P122 GULATI A, 1999, TRADE LIBERALIZATION JONES PG, 2003, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V13, P51 KASPERSON JX, 2001, GLOBAL ENV RISK KUMAR KR, 2002, CLIMATE CHANGE INDIA, P24 KUMAR KSK, 2001, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V11, P147 LAL M, 1995, CURR SCI INDIA, V69, P752 LAL M, 1998, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V89, P101 LEICHENKO RM, 2002, MITIGATION ADAPTATIO, V7, P1 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 MCLEAN RF, 1998, REGIONAL IMPACTS CLI MEARNS LO, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, P739 MENON P, 2001, FARM CRISIS SUICIDES, V18 MITRA AP, 2002, GLOBAL REGIONAL LINK MITTELMAN JH, 1994, THIRD WORLD Q, V15, P427 MITTELMAN JH, 2000, GLOBALIZATION SYNDOM NEW M, 1999, J CLIMATE, V12, P829 OBRIEN JT, 2003, LANCET NEUROL, V2, P89 OBRIEN KL, 2000, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V10, P221 POLSKY C, 2003, ASSESSING VULNERABIL RAJAN RS, 2002, WORLD ECON, V3, P87 RAMACHANDRAN M, 1997, APPL GEOGRAPHIC INFO RIBOT JC, 1996, CLIMATE VARIABILITY, V1, P1 SANGHI A, 1998, INDIA AGR CLIMATE DA SANYAL A, 1993, NATURE MAN INDIAN EC SEN AK, 1999, ESSAYS MANMOHAN SING, P73 SHIVA V, 2000, STOLEN HARVEST HIJAC TURNPENNY JR, 2002, CLIMATE RES, V20, P189 WEBSTER PJ, 1998, J GEOPHYS RES-OCEANS, V103, P14451 NR 47 TC 0 J9 GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANGE BP 303 EP 313 PY 2004 PD DEC VL 14 IS 4 GA 897NL UT ISI:000227010900002 ER PT J AU Sharpley, AN Weld, JL Beegle, DB Kleinman, PJA Gburek, WJ Moore, PA Mullins, G TI Development of phosphorus indices for nutrient management planning strategies in the United States SO JOURNAL OF SOIL AND WATER CONSERVATION LA English DT Article C1 USDA ARS, Pasture Syst & Watershed Management Res Unit, University Pk, PA 16802 USA. Penn State Univ, Dept Soil & Crop Sci, University Pk, PA 16802 USA. USDA ARS, Poultry Prod & Prod Safely Res Unit, Fayetteville, AR USA. Virginia Polytech Inst & State Univ, Dept Crop & Soil Environm Sci, Blacksburg, VA 24061 USA. RP Weld, JL, USDA ARS, Pasture Syst & Watershed Management Res Unit, University Pk, PA 16802 USA. AB Phosphorus (P), an essential nutrient for crop and livestock production, can accelerate freshwater eutrophication, now one of the leading water quality impairments in the United States. In response, the U.S. Department of Agriculture and the Environmental Protection Agency proposed a new nutrient management policy, now addressing P as well as nitrogen (N), which each state must enact by 2008. There are three approaches that address P-agronomic soil test P recommendations, environmental soil test P thresholds, and a P index to rank fields according to their vulnerability to potential P toss. There are many versions of the P index now in use, demonstrating the robustness and flexibility of the indexing framework to better target remedial measures. Of the three P-based approaches, the P indexing approach has been most widely adopted with 47 states using this approach to target P management. This paper charts the development of the indexing approach, which ranks site vulnerability to P loss by accounting for source (soil test P, fertilizer, and manure management) and transport factors (erosion, runoff, teaching, and connectivity to a stream channel) and outlines modifications made among states that reflect local conditions and policy. Additional factors include flooding frequency, STP modifiers (texture, pH, P sorption, reactive aluminum [Al]), conservation practices, and priority of receiving waters. While computation of the final index value is additive in 20 states, 17 multiply source and transport factors to define critical source areas. Most states (47) have maintained the original indexing approach of assessing site vulnerability to P loss, with indices in three states quantifying P toss. We demonstrate using three management scenarios (changing the time of applied manure, riparian buffer establishment, and reduced feed P ration) that overall P index ratings can be decreased, giving farmers more options for manure management than by simply reducing application rates. CR CARPENTER SR, 1998, ECOL APPL, V8, P559 GBUREK WJ, 1998, J ENVIRON QUAL, V27, P267 GBUREK WJ, 2000, J ENVIRON QUAL, V29, P130 JOKELA WE, 1998, COMMUN SOIL SCI PLAN, V29, P1739 KLEINMAN PJA, 2000, SOIL SCI, V165, P943 LEMUNYON JL, 1993, J PROD AGRIC, V6, P483 MOORE PA, 2000, J ENVIRON QUAL, V29, P37 PIONKE HB, 2000, ECOL ENG, V14, P325 POTE DH, 1996, SOIL SCI SOC AM J, V60, P855 SAUER TJ, 2000, J ENVIRON QUAL, V29, P515 SHARPLEY AN, 1995, J ENVIRON QUAL, V24, P947 SHARPLEY AN, 1996, J SOIL WATER CONSERV, V51, P160 SHARPLEY AN, 2000, J ENVIRON QUAL, V29, P176 SHARPLEY AN, 2001, J ENVIRON QUAL, V30, P2026 WU Z, 2000, J DAIRY SCI, V83, P1028 NR 15 TC 5 J9 J SOIL WATER CONSERV BP 137 EP 152 PY 2003 PD MAY-JUN VL 58 IS 3 GA 732QH UT ISI:000185956700010 ER PT J AU Easterling, WE TI Why regional studies are needed in the development of full-scale integrated assessment modelling of global change processes SO GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS LA English DT Article C1 Penn State Univ, Dept Geog, University Pk, PA 16802 USA. RP Easterling, WE, Penn State Univ, Dept Geog, 302 Walker Bldg, University Pk, PA 16802 USA. AB Full-scale integrated assessment models (IAMs) allow many components of the global climate change problem to be examined in one framework. The chief advantage of the IAM approach over less complete modelling frameworks is that the socio-economic and environmental consequences of policy choices aimed at abating or adapting to climate change can be evaluated in their totality, However, the highly aggregate functional forms that IAMs currently embed are lacking in sufficient regional and sectoral detail to be totally credible. In this paper, ten reasons why regional studies are needed in support of the development of full-scale IAMs are given. A strategic cyclical scaling exercise involving regional and global integrated modelling frameworks is proposed, (C) 1997 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *IPCC, 1996, CLIM CHANG 1995 EC S, P367 *US DEP TRANSP, 1975, MON US DEP TRANSP, V6 ALCAMO J, 1994, WATER AIR SOIL POLL, V76, P1 BARNETT HJ, 1979, SCARCITY GROWTH RECO, P163 BILSBORROW RE, 1992, AMBIO, V21, P37 BLAIKIE PM, 1987, LAND DEGRADATIN SOC BRYAN D, 1990, LAND ECON, V66, P176 CHANGNON SA, 1981, MONOGRAPH AM METEORO, V18 CLARK WC, 1985, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V7, P5 DOWLATABADI H, 1993, ENERGY POLICY MAR, P109 DOWLATABADI H, 1995, ENERG POLICY, V23, P289 EASTERLING WE, 1993, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V24, P23 EASTERLING WE, 1996, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V80, P1 EHRLICH PR, 1971, SCIENCE, V171, P1212 HOPE C, 1993, ENERG POLICY, V21, P327 HOUGHTON RA, 1990, ENVIRON SCI TECHNOL, V24, P414 KAISER HM, 1993, AM J AGR ECON, V75, P387 LANCASTER J, 1996, REGIONAL IMPACTS GLO LEEMANS R, 1994, WATER AIR SOIL POLL, V76, P133 LONGERAN S, 1994, CHANGES LAND USE LAN, P441 MATSUOKA Y, 1995, ENERG POLICY, V23, P357 MENDELSOHN R, 1996, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V80, P55 NORDHAUS WD, 1992, SCIENCE, V258, P1315 PARRY ML, 1996, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V32, P185 PARSON EA, 1995, ENERG POLICY, V23, P463 POWELL TM, 1989, PERSPECTIVES ECOLOGI, P157 RASTETTER EB, 1992, ECOL APPL, V2, P55 ROOT TL, 1995, SCIENCE, V269, P334 ROSENBERG NJ, 1993, INTEGRATED IMPACT AS ROSENZWEIG C, 1994, NATURE, V367, P133 SCHELLING TC, 1983, CHANGING CLIMATE, P449 SELLERS PJ, 1992, J GEOPHYS RES-ATMOSP, V97, P18345 SMITH JB, 1989, POTENTIAL EFFECTS GL TURNER BL, 1991, INT SOC SCI J, V43, P669 NR 34 TC 22 J9 GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANGE BP 337 EP 356 PY 1997 PD DEC VL 7 IS 4 GA ZB527 UT ISI:000072481500004 ER PT J AU Vilchek, GE TI Ecosystem health, landscape vulnerability, and environmental risk assessment SO ECOSYSTEM HEALTH LA English DT Article C1 Russian Acad Sci, Inst Geog, Moscow 109017, Russia. RP Vilchek, GE, Russian Acad Sci, Inst Geog, 29 Staromonetny, Moscow 109017, Russia. AB Ecosystem health is evaluated as an integrated assessment based on ecosystem stability, resilience, and vulnerability concepts. Special emphasis is focused on two dimensions in the ecosystem health concept: a geocentric approach (i.e., considering any impacts or interactions in terms of their effects on natural geosystems or ecosystems) which deals with assessment of natural ecosystems and their disturbance; and an anthropocentric approach, which concerns effects on human beings and human environment. Analysis of the relevant terminology leads to the development of a conceptual framework for ecosystem health. A suggested method of environmental risk assessment is based on ranking and merging into one criterion a series of individual estimates: bioresources abundance, biodiversity, ecosystem stability and resilience, and feedback effects of a disturbed environment on human beings and their activities. CR CALOW P, 1995, EVALUATING MONITORIN, P33 COSTANZA R, 1992, ECOSYSTEM HLTH NEW G, P239 DICKINS D, 1990, LANKASTER SOUND REGI GORSHKOV VG, 1992, IZVESTIYA RGO, V124, P399 GORSHKOV VG, 1995, PHYSICAL BIOL BASEME ISAKOV YA, 1980, CLASSIFICATION GEOGR MAZUR II, 1990, PERFECTION METHODS M RAPPORT DJ, 1985, AM NAT, V125, P617 RAPPORT DJ, 1995, ECOSYST HEALTH, V1, P5 RAPPORT DJ, 1995, EVALUATING MONITORIN, P5 SHPOLYANSKAYA NA, 1994, GEOGRAPHICAL SERIDS, V1, P56 SNAKIN VV, 1995, GEOGRAPHICAL SERIES, V5, P50 VILCHEK GE, 1990, GEOGRAPHICAL SERIES, V2, P47 VILCHEK GE, 1995, GEOGRAPHICAL SERIES, V3, P59 VILCHEK GE, 1997, DISTURBANCE RECOVERY, P178 WALKER DA, 1980, 8014 CRREL US ARM WESLAWSKI JM, 1995, ENV MAP SVALBOARD CO NR 17 TC 0 J9 ECOSYST HEALTH BP 52 EP 60 PY 1998 PD MAR VL 4 IS 1 GA ZW241 UT ISI:000074389800007 ER PT J AU Callicott, JB Rozzi, R Delgado, L Monticino, M Acevedo, M Harcombe, P TI Biocomplexity and conservation of biodiversity hotspots: three case studies from the Americas SO PHILOSOPHICAL TRANSACTIONS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY B-BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES LA English DT Review C1 Univ N Texas, Dept Philosophy & Relig Studies, Denton, TX 76203 USA. Univ N Texas, Dept Math, Denton, TX 76203 USA. Univ N Texas, Dept Geog, Denton, TX 76203 USA. Univ Magallances, Inst Ecol & Biodivers, Omora Bot Pk, Puerto Williams, Chile. Univ Nacl Expt Guayana, Ctr Invest Guayana, Puerto Ordaz 8050, Edo Bolivar, Venezuela. Rice Univ, Dept Ecol & Evolutionary Biol, Houston, TX 77005 USA. RP Callicott, JB, Univ N Texas, Dept Philosophy & Relig Studies, POB 310920, Denton, TX 76203 USA. AB The perspective of 'biocomplexity' in the form of 'coupled natural and human systems' represents a resource for the future conservation of biodiversity hotspots in three direct ways: ( i) modelling the impact on biodiversity of private land-use decisions and public land- use policies, ( ii) indicating how the biocultural history of a biodiversity hotspot may be a resource for its future conservation, and ( iii) identifying and deploying the nodes of both the material and psycho-spiritual connectivity between human and natural systems in service to conservation goals. Three biocomplexity case studies of areas notable for their biodiversity, selected for their variability along a latitudinal climate gradient and a human-impact gradient, are developed: the Big Thicket in southeast Texas, the Upper Botanamo River Basin in eastern Venezuela, and the Cape Horn Archipelago at the austral tip of Chile. More deeply, the biocomplexity perspective reveals alternative ways of understanding biodiversity itself, because it directs attention to the human concepts through which biodiversity is perceived and understood. The very meaning of biodiversity is contestable and varies according to the cognitive lenses through which it is perceived. 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Linkoping Univ, Dept Water & Environm Sci, SE-58183 Linkoping, Sweden. RP Haag, F, Uppsala Univ, Dept Human Geog, Programme Appl Environm Impact Assessment, Box 513, SE-75120 Uppsala, Sweden. AB This paper analyzes the human-nature interaction in a village in rural South Africa. It discusses preconditions, perceptions, and consequences of natural resource use, and places these findings into a regional and historical context. Applying an interdisciplinary perspective, the study uses interviews, questionnaires, remote sensing, and participatory mapping to analyze land cover changes and local perceptions of the environment. The study area is located in a former homeland (Transkei), a setting where well-recorded conflicts in the human-nature sphere have previously been triggered by population pressure, apartheid policies, and other historical, political, and social reasons. A small-scale and subjective conceptualization of environmental security is used as an approach to analyze local livelihood strategies in a selected village. The results indicate that the environment is not the highest priority in local survival strategies. Instead, formal and informal jobs and governmental grants are the most important security strategies. There are thus no major conflicts resulting from the interaction between the local population and the natural resources in this specific area. Explanations to this pattern can partly be found in historical contexts, which include apartheid policies, re-localizations, and a system of migrant labor. The study also suggests that general truths about a region such as Transkei might be misleading in specific localities. For relevant and successful environmental management and development planning however, it is crucial that decision-makers be able to get a clear picture of local situations and adjust their plans accordingly. 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Univ Georgia, Dept Geog, Athens, GA 30602 USA. Univ Georgia, Dept Marine Sci, Athens, GA 30602 USA. RP Lassiter, RR, US EPA, Div Environm Res, Natl Exposure Res Lab, 960 Coll Stn Rd, Athens, GA 30605 USA. AB Changes in the distribution of vegetation in the mid-Atlantic region of the United States were explored for two climate-change scenarios. The equilibrium vegetation ecology (EVE) model was used to project the distribution of life forms and to combine these into biomes for a doubled-CO2 scenario generated by the GENESIS earth system model. The species model, a climate-envelope model, was used to project the distribution of 200 woody plant species for a climate-change scenario with mean 2 degrees C warming, enhanced winter warming, and no net evapotranspiration. Results from EVE suggest a considerable northward shift of both northern and southern boundaries of the biomes that occur in the mid-Atlantic region. 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RP Webb, P, Tufts Univ, Sch Nutr Sci & Policy, 132 Curtis St, Medford, MA 02155 USA. AB Terms such as 'vulnerability' and 'insecurity' are used widely in the general nutrition literature as well as in work on humanitarian response. Yet these words are used rather loosely. This paper argues that more clarity in their usage would benefit those seeking a bridge between development and humanitarian problems. Since vulnerability is not fully coincident with malnutrition, poverty or other conventional indices of human deprivation, public action must be based on a better understanding of the nature of crises and human uncertainty beyond physiological and nutritional outcomes. More attention is needed to be paid to the context-specific nature of risks, the capacity of households to manage such risks and the potential for public action to bolster indigenous capacity through targeted development investments, not just relief. CR *ACC SCN, 1997, SCN NEWS, V15, P22 *FAO, 1998, GUID NAT FOOD INS VU *PAHO, 1999, M HELD 16 19 FEBR PA *UNDP, 1996, 1996 UNDP *UNEP GRID, 1998, UNEPDEIATR978 *UNHCR, 1998, UNP RWAND WOM IN REP *UNICEF, 1996, TEFCDRWCAROEM0396 W *USAID, 1997, 975 FAM EARL WARN SY *USAID, 1999, FEWS SAH VULN ASS 99 *USDA, 1995, GFA6 USDA EC RES SER *WFP, 1997, WFPEB3973B *WHO, IN PRESS CAR NUTR VU *WHO, 1997, WHO GLOB DAT CHILD G *WORLD BANK, 1996, INC NUTR PROJ DES *WORLD BANK, 1997, HLTH NUTR POP SECT S AKDER AH, 1994, 18 UNDPHDR UN DEV PR BERNSTEIN P, 1996, AGAINST GODS BLAIKIE PM, 1994, RISK NATURAL HAZARDS, V1, P1 BORTON J, 1985, UNPUB RISK MAPPING E BOUDREAU T, 1998, 26 OV DEV I REL REH BOUTRIF E, 1997, FOOD NUTR AGR, V19, P37 BUCHANANSMITH M, 1995, FAMINE EARLY WARNING BUVINIC M, 1993, TARGETING POOR WOMAN BYRNE M, 1997, FIELD EXCHANGE, V2, P4 CHAMBERS R, 1989, IDS B, V20, P1 COX G, 1981, FAMINE ITS CAUSES EF CUNY F, 1999, FAMINE CONFLICT RESP DAVIS AP, 1996, LANCET, V348, P868 DREZE J, 1989, 17 LOND SCH EC POL S ELLIS F, IN PRESS RURAL LIVEL ENGLE PL, 1996, 12 INT FOOD POL RES FERROLUZZI A, 1996, BRIT J NUTR, V75, P3 FRONGILLO E, 1999, J NUTR S, V129, P506 HAAGA J, 1986, ECOL FOOD NUTR, V18, P297 HADDAD L, 1996, 19 INT FOOD POL RES HADDAD L, 1997, AM J AGR ECON, V79, P1476 HAMILTON WL, 1997, HOUSEHOLD FOOD SECUR HUNTINGTON E, 1933, EC SOCIAL GEOGRAPHY ILIFFE J, 1990, FAMINE ZIMBABWE 1890 JACKSON C, 1996, WORLD DEV, V24, P489 JAHAN R, 1995, ELUSIVE AGENDA MAINS KRISHNAN P, 1997, UNPUB POV WORKSH OCT LEVINSON J, 1991, 13 WORLD BANK LONGHURST R, 1994, IDS BULL-I DEV STUD, V25, P17 MACKINDER HJ, 1904, GEOGR J, V23, P421 MAXWELL DG, 1996, FOOD POLICY, V21, P291 MAXWELL S, 1992, HOUSEHOLD FOOD SECUR MAXWELL S, 1997, IND POV WORKSH OCT 8 MOSER CON, 1998, WORLD DEV, V26, P1 OLAUGHLIN B, 1998, J PEASANT STUD, V25, P1 PAYNE P, FOOD POLICY REV PELLETIER DL, 1995, FOOD POLICY, V20, P279 REARDON T, 1988, WORLD DEV, V16, P1065 RIELY F, 1996, UNPUB VULNERABILITY RIELY F, 1998, UNPUB EMERGENCY NEED RIVERS JPW, 1988, FAMINE ROSE D, 1999, J NUTR, V129, P517 SAHN DE, 1997, WORLD DEV, V25, P577 SALAMA P, 1999, UNPUB ONGOING OMISSI SEAMAN J, 1993, IDS BULL-I DEV STUD, V24, P27 SNOW J, 1855, MODE COMMUNICATION C SUSSER M, 1998, J EPIDEMIOL COMMUN H, V52, P608 SVEDBERG P, 1999, WIDER STUDIES DEV EC TOOLE MJ, 1996, LANCET, V348, P1 VARLEY A, 1996, WORLD DEV, V24, P505 VONBRAUN J, 1998, FAMINE AFRICA CAUSES WATSON F, 1997, FIELD EXCHANGE, V2, P12 WEBB P, 1994, FAMINE FOOD SECURITY WEBB P, 1994, UNPUB VULNERABILITY WEBB P, 1998, ISOLATING HUNGER REA YOHANNES Y, 1999, 3 INT FOOD POL RES I YOUNG H, 1995, RELATIONSHIP MALNUTR NR 72 TC 4 J9 DISASTERS BP 292 EP 305 PY 1999 PD DEC VL 23 IS 4 GA 266KR UT ISI:000084299600002 ER PT J AU Arnell, NW TI Climate change and global water resources: SRES emissions and socio-economic scenarios SO GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS LA English DT Article C1 Univ Southampton, Sch Geog, Southampton SO17 1BJ, Hants, England. RP Arnell, NW, Univ Southampton, Sch Geog, Southampton SO17 1BJ, Hants, England. AB In 1995, nearly 1400 million people lived in water-stressed watersheds (runoff less than 1000m(3)/capita/year), mostly in south west Asia, the Middle East and around the Mediterranean. This paper describes an assessment of the relative effect of climate change and population growth on future global and regional water resources stresses, using SRES socio-economic scenarios and climate projections made using six climate models driven by SRES emissions scenarios. River runoff was simulated at a spatial resolution of 0.5 x 0.5degrees under current and future climates using a macro-scale hydrological model, and aggregated to the watershed scale to estimate current and future water resource availability for 1300 watersheds and small islands under the SRES population projections. The A2 storyline has the largest population, followed by B2, then A 1 and B I (which have the same population). In the absence of climate change, the future population in water-stressed watersheds depends on population scenario and by 2025 ranges from 2.9 to 3.3 billion people; (36-40% of the world's population). By 2055 5.6 billion people would live in water-stressed watersheds under the A2 population future, and "only" 3.4 billion under A1/B1. Climate change increases water resources stresses in some parts of the world where runoff decreases, including around the Mediterranean, in parts of Europe, central and southern America, and southern Africa. In other water-stressed parts of the world-particularly in southern and,eastern Asia-climate change increases runoff, but this may not be very beneficial in practice because the increases tend to come during the wet season and the extra water may not be available during the dry season. The broad geographic pattern of change is consistent between the six climate models, although there are differences of magnitude and direction of change in southern Asia. i By the 2020s there is little clear difference in the magnitude of impact between population or emissions scenarios, but a large difference between different climate models: between 374 and 1661 million people are projected to experience an increase in water stress. By the 2050s there is kill little difference between the emissions scenarios, but the different population assumptions have a clear effect. Under the A2 population between 1092 and 2761 million people have an increase in stress; under the B2 population the range is 670-1538 million, respectively. The range in estimates is due to the slightly different patterns of change projected by the different climate models. Sensitivity analysis showed that a 10% variation in the population totals under a storyline could lead to variations in the numbers of people with an increase or decrease in stress of between 15% and 20%. The impact of these changes on actual water stresses will depend on how water resources are managed in the future. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *CIESIN IFPRI WRI, 2000, GRIDD POP WORLD GPW *IPCC, 2000, EM SCEN SPEC REP WOR *IPCC, 2001, CLIM CHANG 2001 SCI *IPCC, 2001, CLIM CHANG 2001 SYNT *UNEP, 1999, GLOB ENV OUTL 2000 *UNEP, 2001, GLOB ENV OUTL 3 *WORLD MET ORG, 1997, COMPR ASS FRESHW RES *WORLD RES I, 2000, WORLD RES 2000 2001 ALCAMO J, 1997, GLOBAL CHANGE GLOBAL ALCAMO J, 2000, A0002 U KASS CTR ENV, V3 ALCAMO J, 2003, HYDROLOG SCI J, V48, P339 ARNELL NW, 1999, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHA S, V9, S31 ARNELL NW, 1999, J HYDROL, V217, P314 ARNELL NW, 2003, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V14, P3 ARNELL NW, 2003, UNPUB HYDROLOGY EART FALKENMARK M, 1989, NAT RESOUR FORUM, V13, P258 GAFFIN SR, 2003, IN PRESS DOWNSC GEOS GLEICK PH, 1998, WORLDS WATER BIENNIA GORDON C, 2000, CLIM DYNAM, V16, P147 JOHNS TC, 2003, CLIM DYNAM, V20, P583 NEW M, 1999, J CLIMATE, V12, P829 RASKIN P, 1997, WATER FUTURES ASSESS REVENGA C, 2000, PILOT ANAL GLOBAL EC SECKLER D, 19 INT WAT MAN I SECKLER D, 1999, WATER RESOURCES DEV, V15, P29 SHIKLOMANOV IA, 1998, ASSESSMENT WATER RES VOROSMARTY CJ, 2000, SCIENCE, V289, P284 NR 27 TC 0 J9 GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANGE BP 31 EP 52 PY 2004 PD APR VL 14 IS 1 GA 776TX UT ISI:000189135000004 ER PT J AU Carriere, A Barbeau, B Cantin, JF TI Vulnerability of drinking water treatment plants to low water levels in the St. Lawrence River SO JOURNAL OF WATER RESOURCES PLANNING AND MANAGEMENT-ASCE LA English DT Article C1 Ecole Polytech, Dept Civil Geol & Mine Engn, Montreal, PQ H3C 3A7, Canada. Canada Weather Bur, Hydrol Sect, Ste Foy, PQ G1V 4H5, Canada. RP Carriere, A, Ecole Polytech, Dept Civil Geol & Mine Engn, POB 6079,Stn Ctr Ville, Montreal, PQ H3C 3A7, Canada. AB This project's main objective was to determine the vulnerability of water treatment plants (WTPs) along the lower St. Lawrence River to water level fluctuations, which included the effects of both regulation and climate change. Of the 30 WTPs investigated, three were found to be vulnerable to flow conditions experienced in the past (last 100 years). The vulnerability being dictated by the impossibility of supplying the maximum water demand for which the plant was originally designed. For large facilities that dispose multiple equipments (e.g., two wells or two intakes), a large fraction of the production could be maintained at a critical level. For smaller plants, on the other hand, the situation could be more critical. Insufficient water in the well, caused by low water levels in the river, could cause pumping problems or interrupted distribution, but this can be remedied more easily than in larger plants. CR *CETRN, 1993, ET RENV NIV BASS SAI *ENV CAN, 2004, QUICKF *IPCC, 2001, CLIM CHANG 2001 SYNT *OUR, 2004, AD CLIM CHANG *PMCL, 2003, IMP LAK LEV FLUCT MU BRIERE FG, 2000, DISTRBIUTION COLLECT BRUCE JP, 2000, SECTEUR EAU VULNERAB CHAMPOUX O, 2004, P 5 INT S EC MADR SP MARSALEK J, 2004, MENACES DISPONIBILIT, P39 MORIN J, 2001, RS100 SMC HYDR ENV C MORTSCH L, 2000, CANADIAN WATER RESOU, V25, P153 MOULTON RJ, 2000, CANADIAN WATER RESOU, V25, P181 ROUSSEAU AN, 2004, CAN WATER RESOUR J, V29, P121 NR 13 TC 0 J9 J WATER RESOUR PLAN MAN-ASCE BP 33 EP 38 PY 2007 PD JAN-FEB VL 133 IS 1 GA 119WT UT ISI:000243045800005 ER PT J AU Sidle, RC Taylor, D Lu, XX Adger, WN Lowe, DJ de Lange, WP Newnham, RM Dodson, JR TI Interactions of natural hazards and society in Austral-Asia: evidence in past and recent records SO QUATERNARY INTERNATIONAL LA English DT Review C1 Kyoto Univ, Geohazards Div, Disaster Prevent Res Inst, Uji, Kyoto 6110011, Japan. Univ Dublin, Trinity Coll, Dept Geog, Dublin, Ireland. Natl Univ Singapore, Dept Geog, Singapore, Singapore. Univ E Anglia, Sch Environm Sci, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. Univ Waikato, Dept Earth Sci, Hamilton, New Zealand. Univ Plymouth, Dept Geog Sci, Plymouth, Devon, England. Univ Western Australia, Dept Geog, Perth, WA, Australia. RP Sidle, RC, Kyoto Univ, Geohazards Div, Disaster Prevent Res Inst, Uji, Kyoto 6110011, Japan. AB Interactions of some of the principal historical natural hazards with human populations in the Austral-Asian region are discussed both from the perspective of the impact of the hazard on humans as well as the effects of human activities and climate change on hazard magnitude and frequency. Basically, the former type of interaction is evident for most hazards, while the latter interaction is primarily confined to terrestrial and coastal flooding, erosion, landslides, sea level rise. drought, and fire. Social Vulnerability to natural hazards is related to the resources available to cope with the hazard, level of economic development, the ability to predict the occurrence of a hazard and to adjust and adapt to conditions posed by the hazard, and planning measures embraced by societies. Historical chronologies are presented for a range of hazards. Problems in reconstructing historical records of natural hazards include: interpretations of oral records; lack of supporting artifacts; obliteration of evidence of chronic hazards by higher magnitude events; and the inability to distinguish between the effects of different hazards in sediment records. Nevertheless, useful examples illustrate the effects and awareness of volcanic activity and associated hazards, Such as tsunami, by early Maori and subsequent development of avoidance strategies; the effects of widespread land use changes and increases in population on the occurrence of floods, landslides and gullies in China and New Zealand; and the effects of forest conversion and drought on fire hazards in Indonesia. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd and INQUA. All rights reserved. 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ZIERHOLZ C, 1995, AUSTR J SOIL WATER C, V8, P28 ZONG YQ, 2000, NAT HAZARDS, V22, P165 NR 192 TC 0 J9 QUATERN INT BP 181 EP 203 PY 2004 VL 118-19 GA 826VL UT ISI:000221857500012 ER PT J AU CHAMBERS, R TI VULNERABILITY, COPING AND POLICY - INTRODUCTION SO IDS BULLETIN-INSTITUTE OF DEVELOPMENT STUDIES LA English DT Editorial Material RP CHAMBERS, R, INST DEV STUDIES,BRIGHTON,ENGLAND. CR CORBETT J, 1988, WORLD DEV, V16, P1099 JODHA NS, IN PRESS RURAL EC CH RAHMATO D, 1987, FAMINE EXAMINATION I NR 3 TC 46 J9 IDS BULL-INST DEVELOP STUD BP 1 EP 7 PY 1989 PD APR VL 20 IS 2 GA U6244 UT ISI:A1989U624400001 ER PT J AU Nepstad, DC Verissimo, A Alencar, A Nobre, C Lima, E Lefebvre, P Schlesinger, P Potter, C Moutinho, P Mendoza, E Cochrane, M Brooks, V TI Large-scale impoverishment of Amazonian forests by logging and fire SO NATURE LA English DT Article C1 Woods Hole Res Ctr, Woods Hole, MA 02543 USA. UFPa, Inst Pesquisa Ambiental Amazonia Campus Guama, BR-66075970 Belem, Para, Brazil. IMAZON, Inst Homem & Meio Ambiente Amazonia, BR-66017000 Belem, Para, Brazil. Inst Nacl Pesquisas Espaciais, BR-12201970 Sao Jose Dos Campos, Brazil. NASA, Ecosyst Sci & Technol Branch, Ames Res Ctr, San Francisco, CA 94110 USA. Univ Fed Acre, Parque Zoobot, BR-69000 Acre, Brazil. RP Nepstad, DC, Woods Hole Res Ctr, POB 296, Woods Hole, MA 02543 USA. AB Amazonian deforestation rates are used to determine human effects on the global carbon cycle(1-3) and to measure Brazil's progress in curbing forest impoverishment(1,4,5). But this widely used measure of tropical land use tells only part of the story. Here we present field surveys of wood mills and forest burning across Brazilian Amazonia which show that logging crews severely damage 10,000 to 15,000 km(2) yr(-1) of forest that are not included in deforestation mapping programmes. Moreover, we find that surface fires burn additional large areas of standing forest, the destruction of which is normally not documented. Forest impoverishment due to such fires may increase dramatically when severe droughts provoke forest leaf-shedding and greater flammability; our regional water-balance model indicates that an estimated 270,000 km(2) of forest became vulnerable to fire in the 1998 dry season. Overall, we find that present estimates of annual deforestation for Brazilian Amazonia capture less than half of the forest area that is impoverished each year, and even less during; years of severe drought. Both logging and fire increase forest vulnerability to future burning(6,7) and release forest carbon stocks to the atmosphere, potentially doubling net carbon emissions from regional land-use during severe El Nino episodes. If this forest impoverishment is to be controlled, then logging activities need to be restricted or replaced with low-impact timber harvest techniques, and more effective strategies to prevent accidental forest fires need to be implemented. 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RP Cutter, SL, Univ S Carolina, Hazards Res Lab, Columbia, SC 29208 USA. AB The 2005 Atlantic hurricane season was the most active season on record and produced 3 category five storms, namely Hurricane Katrina, Hurricane Rita and Hurricane Wilma. The article explores the impact these storms had on the Gulf Coast of the USA. It highlights the effect that Hurricane Katrina had on the structure of New Orleans and also on the people who stayed in the city. Those who stayed were deemed to be the socially vulnerable, and issues of race, ethnicity and poverty were raised. Hurricane Katrina brought national awareness to the deficiencies in preparedness and response to disasters, especially in urban areas. The reconstruction of the area, the rebuilding of peoples' lives and the impact of demographic change are also explored in the article. 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SO JOURNAL OF PEACE RESEARCH LA English DT Review RP Graeger, N, INT PEACE RES INST,OSLO,NORWAY. AB The literature on 'environmental security' struggles with conceptual and methodological shortcomings, questioning the analytical value of the concept. Lodgaard and Westing claim that linking the environment to security - and thereby to 'high politics' - has created the political awareness and sense of urgency required to resolve environmental problems and increase our security. Despite the positive political effects, Buzan, Waever & de Wilde warn against such linking, saying it represents an undesirable 'securitization' of the environment that restricts the range of means available for resolving environmental problems. In the long run, environmental security is more likely to be achieved if it is made part of the daily political debate, they argue. The environmental conflict perspective, focusing on the circumstances under which environmental degradation or change may lead to violent conflict, represents an effort to overcome some of the methodological problems of the security-environment linkage. This review also discusses how a multilevel approach to environmental security, involving global, regional, national and subnational decision-making levels according to the subsidiarity principle, would provide a more dynamic framework for action than the state-centred approach which still dominates security thinking and policy. CR BROCK L, 1991, J PEACE RES, V28, P407 BUZAN B, 1995, WORKING PAPERS CTR P, V10 DEUDNEY D, 1990, MILLENNIUM-J INT ST, V19, P461 DOKKEN K, 1965, THESIS FAC SOCIAL SC DOKKEN K, 1995, 2 PRIO GRAEGER N, 1994, 2 PRIO HOMERDIXON TF, 1991, INT SECURITY, V16, P76 HOMERDIXON TF, 1994, INT SECURITY, V19, P5 HOWE G, 1994, REEDE LECT KAKONEN J, 1994, GREEN SECURITY MILIT LODGAARD S, 1990, UNEP M ENV CONFL RES LODGAARD S, 1992, 3 PRIO LODGAARD S, 1992, UNEP M ENV CONFL RES, P19 MATHEWS JT, 1989, FOREIGN AFF, V68, P162 ULLMAN RH, 1983, INT SECURITY, V8, P129 WAEVER O, 1993, WORKING PAPERS CTR P, V5 WESTING AH, 1989, COMPREHENSIVE SECURI NR 17 TC 5 J9 J PEACE RES BP 109 EP 116 PY 1996 PD FEB VL 33 IS 1 GA TZ022 UT ISI:A1996TZ02200008 ER PT J AU Alley, RB Marotzke, J Nordhaus, WD Overpeck, JT Peteet, DM Pielke, RA Pierrehumbert, RT Rhines, PB Stocker, TF Talley, LD Wallace, JM TI Abrupt climate change SO SCIENCE LA English DT Review C1 Penn State Univ, Dept Geosci, University Pk, PA 16802 USA. Penn State Univ, EMS Environm Inst, University Pk, PA 16802 USA. Univ Southampton, Southampton Oceanog Ctr, Southampton SO14 3ZH, Hants, England. Yale Univ, Dept Econ, New Haven, CT 06520 USA. Univ Arizona, Inst Study Planet Earth, Tucson, AZ 85721 USA. Columbia Univ, Lamont Doherty Earth Observ, Palisades, NY 10964 USA. NASA, Goddard Inst Space Studies, New York, NY 10025 USA. Univ Colorado, Ctr Sci & Technol Policy Res, Cooperat Inst Res Environm Sci, Boulder, CO 80309 USA. Univ Chicago, Dept Geophys Sci, Chicago, IL 60637 USA. Univ Washington, Dept Atmospher Sci, Seattle, WA 98195 USA. Univ Washington, Dept Oceanog, Seattle, WA 98195 USA. Univ Bern, Inst Phys, CH-3012 Bern, Switzerland. Univ Calif San Diego, Scripps Inst Oceanog, La Jolla, CA 92093 USA. RP Alley, RB, Penn State Univ, Dept Geosci, University Pk, PA 16802 USA. AB Large, abrupt, and widespread climate changes with major impacts have occurred repeatedly in the past, when the Earth system was forced across thresholds. Although abrupt climate changes can occur for many reasons, it is conceivable that human forcing of climate change is increasing the probability of large, abrupt events. Were such an event to recur, the economic and ecological impacts could be large and potentially serious. Unpredictability exhibited near climate thresholds in simple models shows that some uncertainty will always be associated with projections. In light of these uncertainties, policy-makers should consider expanding research into abrupt climate change, improving monitoring systems, and taking actions designed to enhance the adaptability and resilience of ecosystems and economies. 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Univ Dundee, Sch Social Sci Geog, Dundee DD1 4HN, Scotland. RP McEwen, LJ, Univ Gloucestershire, Geog & Environm Management Res Unit, Cheltenham GL50 4AZ, Glos, England. AB On 3 August 1829, north-east Scotland recorded one of the most severe catastrophic floods in modern UK history. Sir Thomas Dick Lauder's An account of the great floods of August 1829 in the province of Moray and adjoining districts (1830) provides a detailed eyewitness account that can be used to reconstruct the flood. This paper reconstructs the hydrometeorology of the flood, assesses its geomorphological and societal impacts and provides a context for assessing present-day flood risk management. The flood was generated by a slow-moving depression in the Moray Firth, which produced an unstable northerly airflow over the NE Grampian Mountains and a minimum 24 hour rainfall of 95 mm. The River Findhorn, one of the most severely affected drainage basins, was subject to detailed analysis by Lauder, including the reporting of numerous flood levels on bridges and within bedrock gorges. Reconstruction of flood flows at five of these sites using Manning's equation and moving successively downstream yields peak flows of 711 m(3)/s (drainage area 322.2 km(2)), 1042 m(3)/s (515.4 km(2)), 1262 m(3)/s (568.1 km(2)) and 1484 m(3)/s (599.6 km(2)) on the main stem of the Findhorn, with 451 m(3)/s (171.9 km(2)) on a major tributary. Each peak flow based on a Manning's n of 0.04-0.08 represents the optimal value within limits which vary between -25% to +33% and all lie just within the upper boundary when plotted in relation to the envelope curve for catastrophic floods within the UK. Lauder also provides a detailed account of the geomorphic impacts of the flood in the Findhorn valley. Bedrock reaches and 'mixed' alluvial/bedrock-controlled reaches proved to be robust and registered minimal change, but alluvial reaches reported widespread bank erosion and slope failures with extensive sheets of sand and gravel deposited downstream on valuable agricultural land. Meander cut-offs occurred and many new channels were excavated, especially in the coastal lowlands where the present-day channel broadly follows that excavated in 1829, attesting to the longevity of the flood's impacts. The immediate societal impact included eight fatalities, destitution for at least 289 families, large-scale destruction of roads and bridges, losses for estate owners approaching 2.83 pound million (2005 prices) and a major shock to a relatively prosperous rural economy. Human response and mitigation took the form of fatalistic acceptance, bearing the loss and dependence on local charitable relief. The reconstruction of the 1829 'Muckle Spate' has a significance far beyond its immediate setting in terms of hydrology (confirming the shape of the envelope curve for Britain's most extreme floods), geomorphology (reporting significant and long-lasting imprints on the riverscape, and confirming the primacy of water-based erosion early in the nineteenth century) and societal impact (contrasting individual bearing of loss mitigated by charitable relief with the present-day reliance on flood protection largely provided by the state). The reconstruction also demonstrates the value of reliable historical sources in placing recent catastrophic floods within their longer-term context. 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AB PLEC addresses a central issue for sustainable development in the tropical and sub-tropical parts of the world, namely the interlinkages between population processes, land management and environmental change. The programme forms part of the United Nations University programme area entitled 'Sustaining Global Life-Support Systems.' The programme area responds to the United Nations Agenda 21 focusing on selected issues of sustainable development where the University has specific competence. PLEC has strong complementarity with other UNU programmes in this area, including the long standing programme on 'Mountain Ecology and Sustainable Development'. Close collaboration has also been established between PLEC and the UNU Institute for Natural Resources in Africa (UNU/INRA) based in Ghana, which gives specific backstopping support to the PLEC Clusters in West and East Africa. CR 1992, AGENDA, V21 1993, UNU21 PROGR ENV SUST ARAGON LE, 1992, DESENVOLVIMENTO SUST, V1 ARAGON LE, 1992, DESENVOLVIMENTO SUST, V2 BROOKFIELD H, 1993, SE ASIAS ENV FUTURE CLARKE WC, 1993, AGROFORESTRY PACIFIC DAVIS K, 1991, RESOURCES ENV POPULA DICKINSON RE, 1987, GEOPHYSIOLOGY AMAZON JONES JR, 1990, COLONIZATION ENV LAN KASPERSON JX, 1995, REGIONS RISK, V1, P1 LANDAUER K, 1990, TROPICAL HOME GARDEN MANSHARD W, 1988, AGR EXPANSION PIONEE MANSHARD W, 1993, ENV SOUND SOCIOECONO, P7 MYERS N, 1991, POPULATION RESOURCES STONE PB, 1992, STATE WORLDS MOUNTAI UITTO JI, 1993, GEOJOURNAL, V31, P105 NR 16 TC 2 J9 GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANGE BP 267 EP 271 PY 1995 PD SEP VL 5 IS 4 GA TB627 UT ISI:A1995TB62700002 ER PT J AU Pielke, RA TI Nine fallacies of floods SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 Natl Ctr Atmospher Res, Environm & Societal Impacts Grp, Boulder, CO 80307 USA. RP Pielke, RA, Natl Ctr Atmospher Res, Environm & Societal Impacts Grp, POB 3000, Boulder, CO 80307 USA. AB A number of important misconceptions or fallacies stand in the way of a better understanding of the nation's flood problem. The fallacies are not universal, with many flood experts, decision makers, and sectors of the public escaping their seductive logic. But enough people do fall prey to these fallacies of floods so as to create obstacles to improved utilization of the lessons of experience. This paper uses three of these lessons to organize presentation of the nine fallacies: We know the wrong things about the nature of the problem. Fallacy 1: Flood frequencies are well understood. Fallacy 2: Damaging flooding in recent years is unprecedented because of `global warming'. Fallacy 3: Levees `prevent' damages. Fallacy 4: Flood forecasts are universally available. We don't know enough about why and with what intensity we should act. Fallacy 5: Societal vulnerability to floods is well understood. Fallacy 6: Data on flood casualties is a proxy for flood risk. Fallacy 7: Data on flood damages is a proxy for flood risk. We know enough about what might be done. Fallacy 8: Knowledge leads to action. Fallacy 9: The U.S. flood problem can be addressed without Federal leadership and support. The purpose of raising the fallacies in this paper is to contribute to a systematic definition of the nation's flood problem. 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RP Siebenhuner, B, Carl Von Ossietzky Univ Oldenburg, Sch Comp Sci, Business Adm, GELENA Res Grp, D-26111 Oldenburg, Germany. AB In a number of recent research projects, computer models have been included in participatory procedures to assess global environmental change. The intention was to support knowledge production and to help the involved non-scientists to develop a deeper understanding of the interactions between natural and social systems. This paper analyses the experiences made in three projects with the use of computer models from a participatory and a risk management perspective. Our cross-cutting analysis of the objectives, the employed project designs and moderation schemes and the observed learning processes in participatory processes with model use shows that models play a mixed role in informing participants and stimulating discussions. However, no deeper reflection on values and belief systems could be achieved. In terms of the risk management phases, computer models serve best the purposes of problem definition and option assessment within participatory integrated assessment (PIA) processes. (c) 2004 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. CR *CPB, 1999, WORLDSC COR VERS *SOC LEARN GROUP, 2001, LEARN MAN GLOB ENV R, V2 *WBGU GERM ADV COU, 1996, WORLD TRANS RES CHAL ALCAMO J, 1994, IMAGE 20 INTEGRATED ARGYRIS C, 1996, ORG LEARNING, R2 BECKER E, 1999, SUSTAINABILITY SOCIA BERK MM, 1999, 410200028 NRP BERK MM, 2002, 490200003 RIVM NRP DAHINDEN U, 2000, INTEGR ASSESS, V1, P253 DAHINDEN U, 2003, PUBLIC PARTICIPATION, P105 DEMARCHI B, 1998, 17760 EUR EN ISPRA J DENELZEN MGJ, 2001, 728001011 RIVM DEVRIES B, 2000, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V63, P137 DOWLATABADI H, 1993, SCIENCE, V259, P1813 DURRENBERGER G, 1997, WP972 ULYSSES DARMST FORRESTER J, 1999, INT J ENVIRON POLLUT, V11, P316 FUNTOWICZ S, 1994, FUTURES, V26, P568 FUNTOWICZ SO, 1993, FUTURES, V25, P739 FUNTOWICZ SO, 1994, ECOL ECON, V10, P197 GIBBONS M, 1994, NEW PRODUCTION KNOWL HILDERINK H, 2000, THESIS AMSTERDAM HISSCHEMOLLER M, 2001, INTEGRATED ASSESSMEN, V2, P57 HISSCHEMOLLER M, 2001, R0107 IVM VRIJ U AMS HISSCHEMOLLER M, 2002, 410200119 NRP WAG U, E HRYNYSHYN J, NEW SCI 0727, P38 JAEGER J, 2002, SCI TECHN TRANS SUST KASEMIR B, 1999, INT J ENVIRON POLLUT, V11, P407 KASEMIR B, 2000, ENVIRONMENT, V42, P32 KASEMIR B, 2000, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V10, P169 KASEMIR B, 2003, PUBLIC PARTICIPATION KATES RW, 2001, SCIENCE, V292, P641 LINDLEY SJ, 2001, IMPACT ASSESS PROJ A, V19, P141 MORGAN MG, 1996, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V34, P337 MOSS R, 2000, GUIDANCE PAPERS CROS NOWOTNY H, 2001, RETHINKING SCI KNOWL OCONNOR M, 1999, FUTURES, V31, P671 PAHLWOSTL C, 2000, INTEGR ASSESS, V1, P267 PAHLWOSTL C, 2001, OPTIONS PATHS LOW EN RASKIN P, 1996, POLESTAR SYSTEM MANU RAVETZ JR, 1999, FUTURES, V31, P647 RAVETZ JR, 2003, PUBLIC PARTICIPATION, P62 ROTMANS J, 1990, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V16, P331 ROTMANS J, 1994, 461502004 RIVM ROTMANS J, 1997, HUMAN CHOICES CLIMAT ROTMANS J, 1997, PERSPECTIVES GLOBAL ROTMANS J, 1998, ENVIRON MODEL ASSESS, V3, P155 ROTMANS J, 2000, FUTURES, V32, P809 ROTMANS J, 2001, ENV4CT970462 ICIS SCHLUMPF C, ENV MODEL ASSESS, P1 SCHLUMPF C, 1997, IMPACTS CLIMATE CHAN SHINN T, 2002, SOC STUD SCI, V32, P599 SIEBENHUNER B, 2004, INT J SUSTAIN DEV, V7, P144 TOTH FL, 1998, ENVIRON MODEL ASSESS, V3, P193 TUINSTRA W, 1999, ENVIRONMENT, V41, P33 VANASSELT MBA, 2002, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V12, P167 VANDEKERKHOF M, 2003, GREEN MANAG INT, V10 VANDEKERKHOF M, 2004, DEBATING CLIMATE CHA VANDERSLUIJS JP, 1997, ANCHORING AMID UNCER VANDERSLUIJS JP, 1999, ULYSSES WEB TUTORIAL VANDERSLUIJS JP, 2001, INTERDISCIPLINARITY, V11, P199 VANDERSLUIJS JP, 2001, KNOWLEDGE POWER PART, P12 VANDERSLUIJS JP, 2002, FUTURES, V34, P133 WENZEL V, 1996, IMAGE ULYSSES CITIZE WHITE R, 2004, SPATIALLY INTEGRATED WILKINS H, 2003, ENVIRON IMPACT ASSES, V23, P401 NR 65 TC 0 J9 ENVIRON IMPACT ASSESS REV BP 367 EP 389 PY 2005 PD MAY VL 25 IS 4 GA 919VK UT ISI:000228645500004 ER PT J AU Jiang, H TI Cooperation, land use, and the environment in Uxin Ju: The changing landscape of a Mongolian-Chinese borderland in China SO ANNALS OF THE ASSOCIATION OF AMERICAN GEOGRAPHERS LA English DT Article C1 Univ Wisconsin, Dept Geog, Madison, WI 53706 USA. Beijing Normal Univ, Inst Resources Sci, Beijing 100875, Peoples R China. RP Jiang, H, Univ Wisconsin, Dept Geog, 384 Sci Hall, Madison, WI 53706 USA. AB Human-environmental studies have done much to examine environmental consequences of conflictual politics but have paid scant attention to landscape implications of cooperation, especially when that cooperation is adopted by a group that is seen as politically less powerful. This article examines cooperative politics and its consequences for land use and the environment in Uxin Ju, a Mongol-dominated border area in China. Since the 1980s, in the context of China's economic reform, land use in Uxin Ju has become more intensified, and the identification of the Mongolian culture has shifted from land-use practices to symbolic features such as language and heritage. Much of the change has been influenced by the Mongols' cooperative relationship with the Chinese state and the Han Chinese people. The Mongols have participated actively in the state's project of economic modernization and have utilized their access to Chinese technology and laborers to their own advantage in bringing about land-use change that helps strengthen their economic well-being. This cooperative relationship and its impact on land use have to be understood in the historical context of Uxin Ju as a Mongolian-Chinese borderland, the broad socioeconomic transformation that is taking place in China, and the contemporary experience of Mongolian cultural change. The environmental outcome of such cooperation, however, is rather mixed. On the sandy dryland of Uxin Ju, as parts of the landscape are improved, other parts are sandified. The entire landscape has become more homogenized spatially; thus, its regenerative capacity is compromised. This calls into question any a priori correspondence between forms of politics and environmental consequences. 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RP Ribot, JC, Harvard Ctr Populat & Dev Studies, 9 Bow st, Cambridge, MA 02139 USA. AB The questions at the centre of this article are: who profits from commercial forestry, and how? Through access mapping with commodity chain analysis, this study examines the distribution of benefits from Senegal's charcoal trade and the multiple market mechanisms underpinning that distribution. Benefits from charcoal are derived from direct control over forest access, as well as through access to markets, labour opportunities, capital, and state agents and officials. Access to these arenas is based on a number of inter-related mechanisms including legal property, social identity, social relations, coercion and information control. A commodity chain is the series of relations through which an item passes, from extraction through conversion, exchange, transport, distribution and final use. 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US Fish & Wildlife Serv, Patuxent Wildlife Res Ctr, Laurel, MD 20708 USA. Louisiana State Univ, Sch Renewable Nat Resources, Baton Rouge, LA 70803 USA. Louisiana State Univ, AgCenter, Baton Rouge, LA 70803 USA. Univ N Carolina, Dept Biol, Charlotte, NC 28223 USA. H John Heinz III Ctr Sci Econ Environm, Washington, DC 20004 USA. RP Ferraz, G, Inst Nacl de Pesquisas da Amazonia, Biol Dynam Forest Fragments Project, BR-69011 Manaus, Amazonas, Brazil. AB As compared with extensive contiguous areas, small isolated habitat patches lack many species. Some species disappear after isolation; others are rarely found in any small patch, regardless of isolation. We used a 13-year data set of bird captures from a large landscape-manipulation experiment in a Brazilian Amazon forest to model the extinction-colonization dynamics of 55 species and tested basic predictions of island biogeography and metapopulation theory. From our models, we derived two metrics of species vulnerability to changes in isolation and patch area. We found a strong effect of area and a variable effect of isolation on the predicted patch occupancy by birds. 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RP Wilbanks, TJ, Oak Ridge Natl Lab, Div Environm Sci, POB 2008, Oak Ridge, TN 37831 USA. AB As policymakers and stakeholders increasingly consider relative merits and complementarities of climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies, it is important to improve analytical capacities to support this process. Because a single analytical approach is unlikely to fit all needs, this paper explores potentials for an integrated analytical framework that incorporates both top-down and bottom-up approaches. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *ORNL CUSAT, 2003, POSS VULN COCH IND C DOWLATABADI H, 1993, ENERG POLICY, V21, P209 DOWLATABDI H, 2002, INTEGR ASSESS, V3, P122 HILDEBRAND SG, 1993, ENV ANAL NEPA EXPERI KATES RW, 2001, SCIENCE, V292, P641 ROOT TL, 1995, SCIENCE, V269, P334 SCHNEIDER SH, 2000, PACIFIC ASIAN J ENER, V10, P81 TOTH F, 2001, GUIDANCE PAPERS CROS, P53 WILBANKS TJ, 2002, INTEGRATED ASSESSMEN, V3, P100 WILBANKS TJ, 2003, ENVIRONMENT, V45, P28 WILBANKS TJ, 2003, INTEGRATED ANAL MITI WILBANKS TJ, 2005, BRIDGING SCALES EPIS WILBANKS TJ, 2005, CHALLENGES INTEGRATI NR 13 TC 1 J9 ENVIRON SCI POLICY BP 541 EP 547 PY 2005 VL 8 IS 6 GA 991MD UT ISI:000233817200002 ER PT J AU Arambiza, E Painter, M TI Biodiversity conservation and the quality of life of indigenous people in the Bolivian Chaco SO HUMAN ORGANIZATION LA English DT Article AB The appropriate relationship between efforts to conserve biological diversity and promote development initiatives that contribute to improving the quality of life of indigenous people has proven contentious, and discussions often seemed more oriented toward staking out positions than defining areas of shared interest upon which alliances that could shape rural land use might be constructed. The Capitania de Alto y Bajo Isoso, the indigenous organization representing the interests of the Guarani people in the Isoso region of Bolivia's Chaco, and the Wildlife Conservation Society, a US-based conservation organization, have developed a partnership over the course of more than 15 years, which has made important contributions to conserving biological diversity and supporting the initiatives of indigenous people to improve their quality of life. This article discusses what have been crucial elements in building and maintaining the partnership, and suggests lessons that might be applied in other settings. 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Moscow MV Lomonosov State Univ, Lab Fluvial & Estuarine Proc, Moscow 119899, Russia. RP Li, CX, Tongji Univ, Sch Ocean & Earth Sci, Lab Marine Geol, Shanghai 200092, Peoples R China. AB Asia is the largest continent. It lies within an active tectonic zone and is subjected to active monsoons, frequent tropical cyclones and huge rivers with abundant sediment loads. In this geographical setting, several background factors influence coastal processes and evolution of the coasts of China. Tectonic activity influences the distribution of river-borne sediments in the coastal zone leading to formation of wide strand plains with thick wedges of Quaternary strata in the subsidence belts, and narrow strand plains with thin Quaternary strata in the uplift belts. These factors essentially determine the distribution patterns of sandy and muddy coasts, which differ in response to relative sea level (RSL) rise. Relative sea level rise, including components of global sea level rise, tectonic subsidence, ground subsidence and trend rise of river level, is more important for local vulnerability assessment than global sea level rise. Coastal erosion is induced not only by relative sea level rise but also by deficit of sediments delivered to the coast. Coastal wetland still tends to regenerate around large delta areas where fine-grained river-borne sediments are abundant. Although 12,000 km of dykes have been constructed along the Chinese coast and are reinforced and heightened periodically, superimposition of climatic extreme events, such as typhoons with a high storm surge and heavy precipitation during spring tides in the flooding season, creates serious economic and human loss every year. Building of large reservoirs on major rivers leads to reduction in discharge and suspended load, which can induce accelerated coastal erosion and reduction in wetland renewal, thereby exacerbating vulnerability of the coastal zone. However, in comparison to the Asia-Pacific region, the Chinese coastal zone is classified as a low vulnerability area based upon the vulnerability assessment indices of NICHOLLS and DE LA VEGA-LEINERT(2000). 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RP Dyer, H, Univ Leeds, Inst Polit & Int Studies, Leeds LS2 9JT, W Yorkshire, England. AB The environment is now an established area of theoretical and empirical work in the field of International Relations, but the central question remains whether existing institutional structures, intellectual and political, are being in some respect transformed by this development. This review article examines the concept of environmental security as a reflection of the centrality of the environmental challenge. This relatively novel perspective on a defining feature of the field tests the domain of discourse and inquiry, and thus has implications for the study of international relations, perhaps to the extent of justifying the enclosure of its key concepts within the environmental perspective. 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Arizona State Univ, Global Inst Sustainabil, Tempe, AZ 85287 USA. RP Wu, JG, Arizona State Univ, Sch Life Sci, Tempe, AZ 85287 USA. CR *NAT RES COUNC, 1999, OUR COMM JOURN TRANS BASTIAN O, 2001, LANDSCAPE ECOL, V16, P757 CLARK WC, 2003, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V100, P8059 KATES RW, 2001, SCIENCE, V292, P641 NAVEH Z, 1994, LANDSCAPE ECOLOGY TH PICKETT STA, 1994, ECOLOGICAL UNDERSTAN POTSCHIN M, 2005, LANDSCAPE URBAN PLAN REITAN PH, 2005, SUSTAINABILITY SCI P, V1, P77 RINDFUSS RR, 2005, P NAT ACAD SCI, V101, P13976 TRESS G, 2005, LANDSCAPE ECOL, V20, P479 TROLL C, 1939, Z GESELLSCHAFT ERDKU, P241 TROLL C, 1971, GEOFORUM, V8, P43 TURNER MG, 2001, LANDSCAPE ECOLOGY TH TURNER MG, 2005, ANNU REV ECOL EVOL S, V36, P319 WIENS JA, 1999, ISSUES LANDSCAPE ECO, P148 WU J, 2006, IN PRESS KEY TOPICS WU J, 2006, SCALING UNCERTAINTY WU JG, 2002, LANDSCAPE ECOL, V17, P355 NR 18 TC 1 J9 LANDSCAPE ECOL BP 1 EP 4 PY 2006 PD JAN VL 21 IS 1 GA 020DD UT ISI:000235887300001 ER PT J AU SHARPLEY, AN TI IDENTIFYING SITES VULNERABLE TO PHOSPHORUS LOSS IN AGRICULTURAL RUNOFF SO JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY LA English DT Article RP SHARPLEY, AN, USDA ARS,PASTURE SYST & WATERSHED RES LAB,CURTIN RD,UNIVERSITY PK,PA 16802. AB The continual application of more phosphorus (P) in fertilizer and manure to agricultural systems than removed in harvested crops can lead to surface soil accumulation of P. As a result, soil P has become of environmental rather than agronomic concern in areas of intensive crop and livestock production where P enrichment of runoff can promote eutrophication. To target cost-effective remedial measures, sites vulnerable to P loss in runoff must be identified. Site identification by traditional field trials and computer simulations can be time consuming, costly, and data intensive. The Lemunyon and Gilbert field index was used to rank the vulnerability for P loss from 30 unfertilized and P-fertilized, grassed, and cropped watersheds in the Southern Plains. Watershed vulnerability to P loss in runoff was closely related (r(2) = 0.70**) to actual losses measured over the last 16 yr (0.1-5 kg P ha(-1) yr(-1)). Vulnerability to P loss decreased in the order: conventionally tilled wheat (Triticum aestivum L.); no-till wheat; native grass; and set-aside grass. Also, erosive gully remediation by shaping, sprigging with Midland bermudagrass [Cynodon dactylon (L.) Pers.] reduced vulnerability from medium to low. The P index is a valuable tool to identify P sources within a watershed that will require more intensive management to minimize P loss in runoff while maintaining crop productivity. CR CHICHESTER FW, 1992, J ENVIRON QUAL, V21, P587 EDWARDS DR, 1993, J ENVIRON QUAL, V22, P361 EDWARDS WM, 1991, J SOIL WATER CONSERV, V46, P75 HEATWOLE CD, 1987, WATER RESOUR BULL, V23, P127 JOHNSON G, 1980, OKLAHOMA STATE U SOI LEMUNYON JL, 1993, J PROD AGRIC, V6, P483 MEHLICH A, 1984, COMMUN SOIL SCI PLAN, V15, P1409 OCONNOR PW, 1975, J ENVIRON QUAL, V4, P347 PRATO T, 1991, J SOIL WATER CONSERV, V46, P211 SHARPLEY AN, 1985, J ENVIRON QUAL, V14, P354 SHARPLEY AN, 1991, J ENVIRON QUAL, V20, P239 SHARPLEY AN, 1992, J ENVIRON QUAL, V21, P30 SHARPLEY AN, 1994, J ENVIRON QUAL, V23, P437 SIMS JT, 1993, PHOSPHORUS INDEX PHO SMITH SJ, 1991, 5 INT SED C MARCH 19, P48 SMITH SJ, 1991, J ENVIRON QUAL, V20, P244 STEVENS RG, 1993, J PROD AGRIC, V6, P487 NR 17 TC 43 J9 J ENVIRON QUAL BP 947 EP 951 PY 1995 PD SEP-OCT VL 24 IS 5 GA RV384 UT ISI:A1995RV38400022 ER PT J AU Mohammed, SO Farshad, A Farifteh, J TI Evaluating land degradation for assessment of land vulnerability to desert conditions in the Sokoto area, Nigeria SO LAND DEGRADATION & DEVELOPMENT LA English DT Article RP Mohammed, SO, NATL REMOTE SENSING CTR,PMB 2136,JOS,PLATEAU STATE,NIGERIA. AB There are no standard indicators to evaluate or predict desertification. This paper describes an attempt to assess vulnerability to desert conditions in part of the Sokoto district in northwestern Nigeria, using remote sensing coupled with other ancillary data (erosion, sealing, crusting, compaction, cover change, organic matter monitoring, salinity and aridification) within a geographic information system environment. CR *FAO, 1969, SOIL WAT RES SOK VAL, V5 *FAO, 1976, FAO SOILS B, V32 *FAO, 1990, GUID SOIL PROF DESCR *ITC, 1992, ILWIS US MAN *UNCOD, 1977, DES ITS CAUS CONS *UNEP, 1984, SPEC REP DES *UNEP, 1990, DES CONTR B, V19 *UNEP, 1991, DES CONTR B, V20 AJIBADE AC, 1974, GEOLOGY NIGERIA, P85 JANSSEN BH, 1986, QUANTITY EVALUATION MABBUTT JA, 1980, NATURAL RESOURCES RE, V18 OJO O, 1977, CLIMATE W AFRICA OLDEMAN LR, 1988, ISRIC PUBLICATION ROSSITER DG, 1989, AUTOMATED LAND EVALU THORNTHWAITE CW, 1975, INSTRUCTIONS TABLES VANWAMBEKE A, 1986, NEWHALL SIMULATION M NR 16 TC 0 J9 LAND DEGRAD DEV BP 205 EP 215 PY 1996 PD SEP VL 7 IS 3 GA VN166 UT ISI:A1996VN16600003 ER PT J AU Yamin, F Rahman, A Huq, S TI Vulnerability, adaptation and climate disasters: A conceptual overview SO IDS BULLETIN-INSTITUTE OF DEVELOPMENT STUDIES LA English DT Article AB The articles in this IDS Bulletin present insights from the Linking Climate Adaptation (LCA) Project that aimed to ensure that poor people benefit from adaptation processes, rather than bearing greater burdens by, for example, having the risks caused by climate change shifted in their direction. The key research aim of the LCA Project was to determine what kind of procedural and institutional frameworks are needed to ensure that locally determined adaptation needs are linked "upwards" to national and international policy and institutional structures. The overview brings together policy relevant insights on this question whilst also explaining the conceptual underpinnings of the project, focusing on the nature of vulnerability and adaptation and policy processes to support community-led adaptation. The key conclusions are that climate change is a serious, ongoing threat to development and will add burdens to those who are already poor and vulnerable, and that climate vulnerability analysis should be incorporated systematically into the three main policy and institutional frameworks relevant for adaptation: development, disaster relief and climate change. Ways of fostering conceptual, operational and institutional linkages between these three domains are described, focusing on how these can help communities take centre stage in conducting vulnerability analysis and implementation to enhance their long-term capacities for adaptation. 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RP Lambin, EF, Univ Louvain, Louvain, Belgium. CR ACHARD F, 2002, SCIENCE, V297, P999 AIDE TM, 1995, FOREST ECOL MANAG, V77, P77 ANGELSEN A, 1999, WORLD BANK RES OBSER, V14, P73 ANGELSEN A, 2001, AGR TECHNOLOGIES TRO BERESFORD M, 1992, J CONTEMP ASIA, V22, P3 BLAIKIE PM, 1987, LAND DEGRADATION SOC GEIST HJ, 2001, LAND USE LANDCOVER C, V4 GEIST HJ, 2002, BIOSCIENCE, V52, P143 KASPERSON JX, 1995, REGIONS RISK, V1, P1 LAMBIN EF, 2001, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V11, P261 LAMBIN EF, 2003, IN PRESS ANN REV ENV, V28 MERTENS B, 2000, WORLD DEV, V28, P983 MORAN EF, 2002, PATTERNS PROCESSES L, P193 MORTIMORE MJ, 1993, GEOJOURNAL, V31, P15 MYERS N, 2001, PERVERSE SUBSIDIES T, P159 PERZ SG, 2002, SOC SCI QUART, V83, P35 REDMAN CL, 1999, HUMAN IMPACT ANCIENT, P212 RUDEL TK, 2002, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V92, P87 TURNER BL, 1987, COMP FARMING SYSTEMS WAGGONER PE, 2001, POPUL DEV REV, V27, P239 NR 20 TC 0 J9 ENVIRONMENT BP 22 EP + PY 2003 PD JUL-AUG VL 45 IS 6 GA 694UM UT ISI:000183793000004 ER PT J AU Bacon, C TI Confronting the coffee crisis: Can Fair Trade, organic, and specialty coffees reduce small-scale farmer vulnerability in northern Nicaragua? SO WORLD DEVELOPMENT LA English DT Article C1 Univ Calif Santa Cruz, Santa Cruz, CA 95064 USA. RP Bacon, C, Univ Calif Santa Cruz, Santa Cruz, CA 95064 USA. AB This paper links changing global coffee markets to opportunities and vulnerabilities for sustaining small-scale farmer livelihoods in northern Nicaragua. Changing governance structures, corporate concentration, oversupply, interchangeable commodity grade beans, and low farm gate prices characterize the crisis in conventional coffee markets. In contrast, certified Fair Trade and organic are two alternative forms of specialty coffee trade and production that may offer opportunities for small-scale producers. A research team surveyed 228 farmers to measure the impact of sales on organic and Fair Trade markets. The results suggest that participation in organic and Fair Trade networks reduces farmers' livelihood vulnerability. (c) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *CEPAL, 2002, CENTR IMP CAID PREC *CLUSA, 2002, NIC SPEC COFF PROD 1 *EFTA, 2003, FAIR TRADE YB CHALL *FLO, 2003, STAND GEN *IADB, 2000, SOC PROT EQ GROWTH *ICO, 2003, PRIC PAID GROW MEMB *IFAT, 2004, FAIR TRAD *INT AM DEV BANK U, 2002, MAN COMP TRANS COFF *INT TRAD CTR, 2002, OV WORLD MARK ORG FO *OXF, 2001, COFF MARK BACKGR STU *OXF, 2002, MUGG POV COFF CUP *SCAA, 1999, 1999 COFF MARK SUMM *SCAA, 2002, STRAT PLAN 2002 04 *UNICAFE, 2001, COS CAF CICL 2000 20 *USAID, 2002, UNPUB DESC COFF SECT BACON C, IN PRESS SMALL SCALE BACON C, 2001, UPUB BANDANA R, 2001, UNPUB BEBBINGTON A, 2000, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V90, P495 BLAIKIE PM, 1994, RISK NATURAL HAZARDS, V1, P1 BRAY DB, 2002, SOC NATUR RESOUR, V15, P429 BROWN MB, 1993, FAIR TRADE CALERO EC, 2001, PRENSA 0723 CASTILLO RAH, 1998, AM ANTHROPOL, V100, P136 CHAMBERS R, 1992, 296 IDS U CHAYANOV AV, 1966, THEORY PEASANT EC COMBES JL, 2002, DEV POLICY REV, V20, P25 CONTROY M, 2001, DPE0107 POL EC RES I CORRALES B, 2000, COSTOS PRODUCCION AP DIAZ RP, 2001, SITUACION PERSPECTIV, P1 DICUM G, 1999, COFFEE BOOK ANATOMY ELLIS F, 1998, J DEV STUD, V35, P1 GIOVANNUCCI D, 2001, SUSTAINABLE COFFEE S GLIESSMAN SR, 1998, AGROECOLOGY ECOLOGIC GONZALEZ D, 2001, NY TIMES 0829, A3 GOODMAN D, 1999, SOCIOL RURALIS, V39, P17 GOODMAN D, 2001, EXPLORING SUSTAINABL, P97 KATZEFF P, 2001, COMMUNICATION LECLAIR MS, 2002, WORLD DEV, V30, P949 MENDEZ VE, 2004, TRADITIONAL SHADE RU MOSER CON, 1998, WORLD DEV, V26, P1 NIGH R, 1997, HUM ORGAN, V56, P427 PERFECTO I, 1996, BIOSCIENCE, V46, P598 POLANYI K, 1944, GREAT TRANSFORMATION PONTE S, 2002, J AGRARIAN CHANGE, V2, P248 PONTE S, 2002, WORLD DEV, V30, P1099 RAYNOLDS L, 1997, GLOBALISING FOOD AGR, P119 RAYNOLDS L, 2000, AGR HUM VALUES, V17, P297 RAYNOLDS LT, 1998, INT J SOCIOLOGY AGR, V7, P7 RAYNOLDS LT, 2002, POVERTY ALLEVIATION RAYNOLDS LT, 2002, SOCIOL RURALIS, V42, P404 REARDON T, 1995, WORLD DEV, V23, P1495 REARDON T, 1997, WORLD DEV, V25, P735 RENARD MC, 1999, INTERSTICIOS GLOBALI RENARD MC, 1999, SOCIOL RURALIS, V39, P484 RICE RA, 2001, J AGR ENVIRON ETHIC, V14, P39 SCOONES I, 1998, 72 IDS SEN AK, 1981, POVERTY FAMINES ESSA, V1, P1 SEN AK, 1997, WORLD DEV, V25, P1959 SHANKLAND A, 2000, 49 IDS SICK D, 1997, ETHNOLOGY, V36, P225 SKOUFIAS E, 2003, WORLD DEV, V31, P1087 TALBOT JM, 1997, STUD COMP INT DEV, V32, P56 VANDIJIK JB, 1998, WORLD COFFEE MARKET VARANGIS P, 2003, 2993 WORLD BANK WISNER B, 2001, DISASTERS, V25, P251 NR 66 TC 1 J9 WORLD DEVELOP BP 497 EP 511 PY 2005 PD MAR VL 33 IS 3 GA 906UI UT ISI:000227668800009 ER PT J AU Barnett, TP Adam, JC Lettenmaier, DP TI Potential impacts of a warming climate on water availability in snow-dominated regions SO NATURE LA English DT Review C1 Univ Calif San Diego, Scripps Inst Oceanog, Div Climate Res, La Jolla, CA 92093 USA. Univ Washington, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Seattle, WA 98195 USA. RP Barnett, TP, Univ Calif San Diego, Scripps Inst Oceanog, Div Climate Res, La Jolla, CA 92093 USA. AB All currently available climate models predict a near-surface warming trend under the influence of rising levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. In addition to the direct effects on climate-for example, on the frequency of heatwaves-this increase in surface temperatures has important consequences for the hydrological cycle, particularly in regions where water supply is currently dominated by melting snow or ice. In a warmer world, less winter precipitation falls as snow and the melting of winter snow occurs earlier in spring. Even without any changes in precipitation intensity, both of these effects lead to a shift in peak river runoff to winter and early spring, away from summer and autumn when demand is highest. Where storage capacities are not sufficient, much of the winter runoff will immediately be lost to the oceans. With more than one-sixth of the Earth's population relying on glaciers and seasonal snow packs for their water supply, the consequences of these hydrological changes for future water availability-predicted with high confidence and already diagnosed in some regions-are likely to be severe. CR *CHIN AC SCI, 2004, CHIN GLAC INV *CIESIN, 2004, SOC DAT APPL CTR SED ADAM JC, IN PRESS J CLIM BARNETT T, 2004, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V62, P1 BARNETT TP, 2004, CLIM CHANGE, V62 BORYS RD, 2003, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V30 BRUTSAERT W, 1998, NATURE, V396, P30 BURN DH, 1994, J HYDROL, V160, P53 CAYAN DR, 2001, B AM METEOROL SOC, V82, P399 CHATTOPADHYAY N, 1997, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V87, P55 COMBES S, 2004, GOING GOING GONE CLI, P1 DAI A, UNPUB J CLIM DELOE R, 2001, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V11, P231 DETTINGER MD, 2004, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V62, P283 DOUVILLE H, 2002, CLIM DYNAM, V20, P45 FRANCOU B, 2003, J GEOPHYS RES-ATMOS, V108 GAN TY, 2000, WATER RESOUR MANAG, V14, P111 GAO Q, 1992, J DESERT RES, V12, P1 GIORGI F, 2001, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V28, P3317 GIORGI F, 2005, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V32 GIVATI A, 2004, J APPL METEOROL, V43, P1038 GOLUBEV VS, 2001, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V28, P2665 HAMLET AF, IN PRESS J CLIM HANSEN J, 2004, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V101, P423 HANSEN J, 2005, SCIENCE, V308, P1431 HOBBINS MT, 2004, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V31 HOU S, 2000, CHINESE SCI BULL, V45, P256 HOUGHTON JT, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 KASER G, 2005, GLOBAL CHANGE MOUNTA, P185 KAUFMAN YJ, 2002, NATURE, V419, P215 KIEHL JT, 2000, J GEOPHYS RES-ATMOS, V105, P1441 KRISHNAN R, 2002, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V29, P54 LAWRIMORE JH, 2000, J HYDROMETEOROL, V1, P543 LIANG X, 1994, J GEOPHYS RES-ATMOS, V99, P14415 LINIGER H, 1998, MOUNTAINS WORLD WATE, P1 MARK BG, IN PRESS QUAT SCI RE MARK BG, 2003, J GLACIOL, V49, P271 MARK BG, 2005, GLOBAL CHANGE MOUNTA, P205 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 MEIER MF, 2002, SCIENCE, V297, P350 MIDDELKOOP H, 2001, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V49, P105 MOTE PW, 2005, B AM METEOROL SOC, V86, P39 NIJSSEN B, 2001, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V50, P143 OHMURA A, 2002, SCIENCE, V298, P1345 PAYNE JT, 2004, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V62, P233 PETERSON TC, 1995, NATURE, V377, P687 RAMANATHAN V, 2001, SCIENCE, V294, P2119 RODERICK ML, 2002, SCIENCE, V298, P1410 ROSENFELD D, 1999, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V26, P3105 ROSENFELD D, 2000, SCIENCE, V287, P1793 RUIZBARRADAS A, UNPUB J CLIM SCHWINDLER DW, 2001, CAN J FISH AQUAT SCI, V58, P18 SINGH P, 1997, J HYDROL, V193, P316 SINGH P, 1997, MT RES DEV, V17, P49 SINGH P, 2002, HYDROLOG SCI J, V47, P93 SINGH P, 2003, HYDROLOG SCI J, V48, P413 SINGH P, 2004, HYDROL PROCESS, V18, P2363 STEWART IT, 2004, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V62, P217 THOMAS A, 2000, INT J CLIMATOL, V20, P381 THOMPSON LG, 2003, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V59, P137 VOROSMARTY CJ, 1997, AMBIO, V26, P210 VOROSMARTY CJ, 2003, GLOBAL PLANET CHANGE, V39, P169 VUILLE M, 2000, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V27, P3885 VUILLE M, 2003, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V59, P75 WALTER MT, 2004, J HYDROMETEOROL, V5, P405 WILD M, 2004, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V31 NR 66 TC 20 J9 NATURE BP 303 EP 309 PY 2005 PD NOV 17 VL 438 IS 7066 GA 984JR UT ISI:000233300200038 ER PT J AU Brazdil, R Kundzewicz, ZW Benito, G TI Historical hydrology for studying flood risk in Europe SO HYDROLOGICAL SCIENCES JOURNAL-JOURNAL DES SCIENCES HYDROLOGIQUES LA English DT Review C1 Masaryk Univ, Inst Geog, CS-61137 Brno, Czech Republic. Polish Acad Sci, Res Ctr Agr & Forest Environm, PL-60809 Poznan, Poland. Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res, D-14412 Potsdam, Germany. Ctr Ciencias Medioambientales, E-28006 Madrid, Spain. RP Brazdil, R, Masaryk Univ, Inst Geog, Kotlarska 2, CS-61137 Brno, Czech Republic. AB Historical hydrology can be defined as a research field occupying the interface between hydrology and history, with the objectives: to reconstruct temporal and spatial patterns of river flow and, in particular, extreme events (floods, ice phenomena, hydrological droughts) mainly for the period prior to the creation of national hydrological networks; and to investigate the vulnerability of past societies and economies to extreme hydrological events. It is a significant tool for the study of flood risk. Basic sources of documentary data on floods and methods of data collection and analysis are discussed. 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HYDROLOG SCI J BP 739 EP 764 PY 2006 PD OCT VL 51 IS 5 GA 091UZ UT ISI:000241055100002 ER PT J AU Manuel-Navarrete, D Slocombe, S Mitchell, B TI Science for place-based socioecological management: Lessons from the Maya forest (Chiapas and Peten) SO ECOLOGY AND SOCIETY LA English DT Article C1 Wilfrid Laurier Univ, Waterloo, ON N2L 3C5, Canada. Univ Waterloo, Dept Geog, Waterloo, ON N2L 3G1, Canada. AB The role humans should play in conservation is a pervasive issue of debate in environmental thinking. Two long-established poles of this debate can be identified on a preservation - sustainable use continuum. At one extreme are use bans and natural science-based, top-down management for preservation. At the other extreme is community-based, multidisciplinary management for sustainable resource use and livelihoods. In this paper, we discuss and illustrate how these two strategies have competed and conflicted in conservation initiatives in the Maya forest (MF) of the Middle Usumacinta River watershed ( Guatemala and Mexico). We further argue that both extremes have produced unconvincing results in terms of the region's sustainability. An alternative consists of sustainability initiatives based on place-based and integrated-knowledge approaches. These approaches imply a flexible combination of disciplines and types of knowledge in the context of nature - human interactions occurring in a place. They can be operationalized within the framework of sustainability science in three steps: 1) characterize the contextual circumstances that are most relevant for sustainability in a place; 2) identify the disciplines and knowledge(s) that need to be combined to appropriately address these contextual circumstances; and 3) decide how these disciplines and knowledge can be effectively combined and integrated. Epistemological flexibility in the design of analytic and implementation frameworks is key. Place-based and integrative-knowledge approaches strive to deal with local context and complexity, including that of human individuals and cultures. The success of any sustainability initiative will ultimately depend on its structural coupling with the context in which it is applied. CR *CHEM INT INC IRG, 2000, GUAT ASS AN PROG SO5 *SUBC MARC, 2004, REL EL VIEJ ANT *USAID, 2000, MAY BIOSPH RES PROJ BERKES F, 2004, CONSERV BIOL, V18, P621 BOBROWSTRAIN A, 2004, WORLD DEV, V32, P887 BOWLES IA, 1998, SCIENCE, V280, P1899 CARABIASLILLO J, 2000, PROGRAMA MANEJO RESE CLARK C, 2000, HUM ORGAN, V59, P419 DEVOS J, 2002, UNA TIERRA SEMBRAR S EMERSON RM, 1995, WRITING ETHNOGRAPHIC GOMEZPOMPA A, 1999, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V96, P5982 GRETZINGER SP, 1998, TIMBER TOURISTS TEMP, P111 HAENN N, 1999, HUM ECOL, V27, P477 HERNANDEZGOMEZ JM, 2003, CONSERVACION INT ELC KATES RW, 2001, SCIENCE, V292, P641 KLINE K, 2000, ENCUENTRO INT INVEST, P241 KLOOSTER DJ, 1999, LAND DEGRAD DEV, V10, P365 KLOOSTER DJ, 2000, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V10, P259 KREMEN C, 2000, SCIENCE, V288, P1828 LEYVASOLANO X, 1996, LACANDONA FILO AGUA LIU JG, 2001, SCIENCE, V292, P98 MANUELNAVARRETE D, 2005, ENV J INTERDISCIPLIN, V33, P81 MARUYAMA M, 1994, MINDSCAPES EPISTEMOL, P1 MENDOZA E, 1999, BIODIVERS CONSERV, V8, P1621 MICHEL G, 2001, VOTAN ZAPATA FILOSOF MILLIAN B, 2002, CONFLICTIVIDAD AGRAR NELSON KC, 2003, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V13, P19 ORTIZESPEJEL B, 1998, INTERCIENCIA, V23, P318 PONCIANO I, 1998, TIMBER TOURISTS TEMP, P99 RICE RE, 2001, ADV APPL BIODIVERSIT, V3, P1 SADER SA, 2000, ENCUENTRO INT INVEST, P321 STRAND R, 2001, NORWEGIAN J SOC, V9, P49 SUNDBERG J, 1998, GEOGR REV, V88, P388 TOLEDO VM, 2000, PAZ CHIAPAS ECOLOGIA VASQUEZSANCHEZ MA, 1992, RES BIOSFERA MONTES, P287 NR 35 TC 1 J9 ECOL SOC BP 8 PY 2006 PD JUN VL 11 IS 1 GA 064WR UT ISI:000239121300029 ER PT J AU AUSUBEL, JH TI CAN WE ASSESS THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATIC CHANGES SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Article RP AUSUBEL, JH, NATL RES COUNCIL,BOARD ATMOSPHER SCI & CLIMATE,2101 CONSTITUT AVE,WASHINGTON,DC 20418. CR DARGE R, 1975, MONOGRAPH DEP TRANSP, V6 DOUGLAS M, 1978, 34 ROYAL ANTHR I OCC GARCIA R, 1981, NATURE PLEADS NOT GU, V1, P169 MASON J, 1979, WORLD CLIMATE C MEYERABICH K, 1980, CLIMATIC CONSTRAINTS ROBINSON JB, 1981, ECOLOGICAL IMPLICATI ROBINSON JB, 1981, WP8134 IIASA ROSENBERG NJ, 1981, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V3, P265 SMITH VK, UNPUB SMITH VK, 1982, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V4, P5 SPITZ P, 1980, CLIMATIC CONSTRAINTS THOMPSON M, 1982, WP8259 IIASA TIMMERMAN P, 1981, ENV MONOGRAPH, V1, P1 NR 13 TC 6 J9 CLIMATIC CHANGE BP 7 EP 14 PY 1983 VL 5 IS 1 GA QF554 UT ISI:A1983QF55400002 ER PT J AU RIEBSAME, WE TI DROUGHT - OPPORTUNITIES FOR IMPACT MITIGATION SO EPISODES LA English DT Article RP RIEBSAME, WE, UNIV COLORADO,CTR NAT HAZARDS RES & APPLICAT INFORMAT,BOULDER,CO 80309. AB Drought is an ancient natural hazard that has probably killed more people than any other. It is difficult to mark the start and end of drought because the moisture deficit develops slowly over weeks, months, or years. Atmospheric scientists can neither forecast nor control drought. Drought mitigation must focus on reducing the underlying physical and social vulnerability. Short-term adjustments do not yield a lasting adaptation to drought. Some argue that repetitive food aid may worsen long-term food-production problems and land degradation by deferring more fundamental adjustments. Decisionmakers need better information and a broader range of adjustment options in order to reduce drought vulnerability. A linking of global warming/climate change studies with drought studies can yield insights into how societies might deal with climate change and help define the potential for future drought. (Ed.) NR 0 TC 2 J9 EPISODES BP 62 EP 65 PY 1991 PD MAR VL 14 IS 1 GA FX077 UT ISI:A1991FX07700010 ER PT J AU Velarde, SJ Malhi, Y Moran, D Wright, J Hussain, S TI Valuing the impacts of climate change on protected areas in Africa SO ECOLOGICAL ECONOMICS LA English DT Article C1 Scottish Agr Coll, Edinburgh EH9 3JG, Midlothian, Scotland. Univ Edinburgh, Sch Geosci, Edinburgh EH8 9YL, Midlothian, Scotland. Univ Oxford, Sch Geog & Environm, Oxford OX1 2JD, England. World Agroforestry Ctr, Alternat Slash & Burn Programme, Nairobi, Kenya. Univ Southampton, Dept Geog, Southampton SO9 5NH, Hants, England. RP Moran, D, Scottish Agr Coll, Kings Bldg,W Main Rd, Edinburgh EH9 3JG, Midlothian, Scotland. AB This study quantifies the economic costs of climate change impacts on protected areas in Africa. Downscaled results from four Global Circulation Models (GCMs) are used to classify different ecosystems in accordance with the Holdridge Life Zone (HLZ) system. A benefits transfer approach is then used to place an economic value on the predicted ecosystem shifts resulting from climate change in protected areas. The results provide approximations for the impacts on biodiversity in Africa under the "business-as-usual" scenario established by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) for the middle and end of the 21st century. The geographical analysis shows that there are twenty HLZs in Africa and all of them are represented in the protected area network. Three of these HLZs do not change in extent as a result of climate change. Assuming initially that the willingness to pay (WTP) values and the preferences for different ecosystem services remain constant, three of the GCM models show an (undiscounted) negative economic impact of climate change for protected areas in Africa for the year 2100. The worst-case damage scenario totals USD 74.5 million by 2100. However, the model for the year 2065 shows a higher undiscounted value than the present. The finding of positive net impacts from warming is consistent with the predictions of other macro models that show potential gains from warming scenarios. (c) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 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RP Barnett, J, Univ Canterbury, Christchurch 1, New Zealand. AB This paper investigates the problem of scientific uncertainty and the way it impedes planning for climate change and accelerated sea-level rise (CC & ASLR) in Pacific Island Countries (PICs). The paper begins by discussing the problems CC & ASLR poses for PICs, and it explores the limitations of the dominant approach to vulnerability and adaptation. Next, the paper considers the way scientific uncertainty problematizes policies aimed at adaptation to CC & ASLR. It argues that the prevailing approach, which requires anticipation of impacts, is unsuccessful, and the paper proposes a complementary strategy aimed to enhance the resilience of whole island social-ecological systems. Recent developments in the theory and practice of resilience are discussed and then applied to formulate goals for adaptation policy in PICs. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. 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RP Merz, B, Geoforschungszentrum Potsdam, Head Sect Engn Hydrol 54, Telegrafenberg, D-14473 Potsdam, Germany. AB To improve management of natural risks in Germany, we advocate a risk culture containing five elements. These elements - risk identification, risk analysis, risk appraisal, risk reduction, and management of residual risks - are arranged in a cycle since natural hazards and, in particular, the damage potential and the susceptibility of our society to natural hazards evolve over time. Such a risk culture should centre on a risk dialogue involving all actors, with an open discussion of risks and mitigation options, including the costs and limitations of safety measures. Because there is no absolute safeguard against natural hazards, it is indispensable to identify safety targets and to strengthen the response capabilities in the event that protective systems (e. g., river dykes) fail. Such a risk culture paves the way from simply reacting after catastrophic events to genuine prevention. CR *BBK, 2004, RIS DEUTSCHL GEF GEF *BVA, 2003, NEU STRAT SCHUTZ BEV *CEDIM, 2006, RISK DEUTSCHL *DKKV, 2003, HOCHW DEUTSCHL LERN *FEMA, 1997, REP COSTS BEN NAT HA *GDV, 2004, UB DEUTSCHL VERS UB *ISDR, 2004, LIV RISK GLOB REV DI *MUNCH RUCK, 1999, NAT DEUTSCHL SCH SCH *MUNCH RUCK, 2005, MEG MEG TRENDS HER V *NEAA, 2004, DUTCH DIK RISK HIK T *PLAN, 2005, STRAT NAT SCHW AMENDOLA A, 2001, SAFETY SCI, V40, P17 BAHLER F, 2001, WASSER ENERGIE LUFT, V93, P193 BLAIKIE PM, 1994, RISK NATURAL HAZARDS, V1, P1 CARTER WN, 1991, DISASTER MANAGEMENT DOMBROWSKY WR, 2003, ERSTELLUNG SCHUTZDAT, V51 DORNER D, 1993, LOGIK MISSLINGENS ST GRUNTHAL G, 2003, J SEISMOL, V7, P507 KAPLAN S, 1981, RISK ANAL, V1, P11 MERZ B, 2001, RISIKOANALYSE SECKAC MERZ B, 2004, RISIKEN NATURGEFAHRE MERZ B, 2005, FLOODS DEFENCE MANAG, P673 PANDEY MD, 2004, STRUCT SAF, V26, P181 PEARCE L, 2003, NAT HAZARDS, V28, P211 RENN O, 1997, J RISK RES, V11, P49 RENN O, 1998, RELIAB ENG SYST SAFE, V59, P49 ROUX M, 2003, GAIA, V12, P6 SLOVIC P, 1987, SCIENCE, V236, P280 STEWART MG, 1997, PROBABILISTIC RISK A THOMAS D, 1994, PRESCRIBED FIRE SAFE TURNER BA, 1997, MAN MADE DISASTERS WILHELM C, 1999, GAIA, V8, P1 NR 32 TC 0 J9 GAIA BP 265 EP 274 PY 2006 VL 15 IS 4 GA 120QY UT ISI:000243101100006 ER PT J AU McLeman, R Smit, B TI Migration as an adaptation to climate change SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Review C1 Univ Guelph, Dept Geog, Guelph, ON N1G 2W1, Canada. RP McLeman, R, Univ Guelph, Dept Geog, Guelph, ON N1G 2W1, Canada. AB This article presents a conceptual model to investigate population migration as a possible adaptive response to risks associated with climate change. The model reflects established theories of human migration behaviour, and is based upon the concepts of vulnerability, exposure to risk and adaptive capacity, as developed in the climate change research community. The application of the model is illustrated using the case of 1930s migration patterns in rural Eastern Oklahoma, which took place during a period of repeated crop failures due to drought and flooding. 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Virginia Tech, Sch Publ Int Affairs, Inst Governance & Accountabil, Ctr Publ Adm & Policy, Blacksburg, VA 24060 USA. RP Schweitzer, L, Virginia Tech, Urban Affairs & Planning, 205 Architecture Annex, Blacksburg, VA 24060 USA. AB Environmental justice, a term that incorporates 'environmental racism' and 'environmental classism,' captures the idea that different racial and socioeconomic groups experience differential access to environmental quality. This article explores what previous studies have established about environmental justice as an urban phenomenon and critiques the focus and methodologies of those efforts within the larger context of urban inquiry. After assaying the concepts that have guided most of the research, the paper considers the arguments that analysts have offered for the causes of environmental injustice. The review of the literature reveals significant problems of focus, measurement, specification and research design. Nonetheless, environmental justice research raises critical concerns about how citizens should be treated and what constitutes a just distribution of collective urban goods in a democratic society. It is the authors' view that due consideration of these matters can enlighten urban and environmental inquiry and policy. 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OAKES JM, 1996, SOC SCI RES, V25, P125 PASTOR JM, 1998, BORDERLESS BORDERS U, P17 PASTOR JM, 2001, J URBAN AFF, V21, P1 PASTOR M, 2002, SOCIAL SCI Q, V83, P264 PASTOR M, 2004, ENVIRON PLANN C, V22, P271 PASTOR M, 2004, SOC SCI QUART, V85, P420 PASTOR M, 2005, J URBAN AFF, V27, P127 PELLOW D, 2002, GARBAGE WARS PHILLIPS CV, 1999, J EXPO ANAL ENV EPID, V9, P9 PINE JC, 2002, SOC SCI QUART, V83, P317 PULIDO L, 1996, ANTIPODE, V28, P142 PULIDO L, 1996, ENV EC JUSTICE 2 CHI RINGQUIST E, 1998, J POLIT, V60, P148 RINGQUIST EJ, 2001, LAW SOC REV, V35, P683 ROBERTS JT, 2001, CHRONICLES ENV JUSTI ROBINSON F, 1994, W VIRGINIA LAW REV, V96, P441 SADD JL, 1999, ECON DEV Q, V13, P107 SANDWEISS S, 1998, ENV INJUSTICES POLIT, P31 SCHWEITZER L, 2004, J PLAN LIT, V18, P383 SCHWEITZER L, 2006, IN PRESS TRANSPORT D SHEPARD FL, 1997, JUST TRANSPORTATION, P42 SHEPPARD E, 1999, J EXPO ANAL ENV EPID, V9, P18 SLOVIC P, 1999, RISK ANAL, V19, P689 SZASZ A, 1997, CURR SOCIOL, V45, P99 TALEN E, 2006, J PLAN LIT, V20, P233 TALIH M, 2002, J ROY STAT SOC A S 2, V165, P375 TAQUINO M, 2002, SOCIAL SCI Q, V83, P299 VANKEMPEN ET, 1994, URBAN STUD, V31, P995 WILLARD W, 1992, SO U LAW REV, V19, P77 WRIGHT B, 1997, JUST TRANSPORTATION, P121 YANDLE T, 1996, SOC SCI QUART, V77, P477 YINGER J, 1998, J URBAN ECON, V42, P323 NR 128 TC 0 J9 URBAN STUDIES BP 319 EP 337 PY 2007 PD FEB VL 44 IS 2 GA 137EO UT ISI:000244276000006 ER PT J AU Dempster, T Sanchez-Jerez, P Bayle-Sempere, J Kingsford, M TI Extensive aggregations of wild fish at coastal sea-cage fish farms SO HYDROBIOLOGIA LA English DT Article C1 Univ Sydney, Sch Biol Sci, Sydney, NSW 2006, Australia. Univ Alicante, Dept Ciencias Ambientales & Recursos Nat, Unidad Biol Marina, E-03080 Alicante, Spain. James Cook Univ N Queensland, Sch Marine Biol & Aquaculture, Townsville, Qld 4811, Australia. RP Dempster, T, Univ Sydney, Sch Biol Sci, Sydney, NSW 2006, Australia. AB We present evidence of a largely undocumented environmental effect of coastal sea-cage fish farms on wild fish. We estimated the total abundance and biomass of wild fish aggregated in the immediate vicinity of nine fish farms in the Mediterranean Sea and one farm off the east coast of Australia. Estimates of wild fish aggregations ranged from 2000 to 86 000 individuals and from 100 kg to 38.5 tons of fish per farm and were always greater than control locations. Particularly large aggregations (>30 000 fish, >12 tons) occurred at half of the farms. Aggregations were temporally stable for weeks to months and most wild fish associated with farms (88%) were of adult size. Potential effects of such large aggregations of wild fish in the immediate vicinity of fish farms include increased vulnerability to fishing and pathogen transfer between caged and wild fish. We suggest specific legislation should be enacted wherever large aggregations of wild fish occur around fish farms to enhance the positive and reduce the negative effects of association. CR BAYLE JT, 2002, ECOCEN APPL MANAGING BJORDAL A, 1992, 1992G35 ICES COUNC BJORN PA, 2001, AQUAC RES, V32, P947 CARSS DN, 1990, AQUACULTURE, V90, P29 CASTRO JJ, 2002, REV FISH BIOL FISHER, V11, P255 CHIAPPONE M, 2000, B MAR SCI, V66, P691 CROZIER WW, 2000, FISHERIES MANAG ECOL, V7, P437 DEMPSTER T, 2002, MAR ECOL-PROG SER, V242, P237 FREON P, 2000, REV FISH BIOL FISHER, V10, P183 GAUSEN D, 1991, CAN J FISH AQUAT SCI, V48, P426 HARMELINVIVIEN ML, 1985, REV ECOL-TERRE VIE, V40, P467 JOSSE E, 2000, AQUAT LIVING RESOUR, V13, P183 KATZ T, 2002, MAR ECOL-PROG SER, V234, P205 MCCLANAHAN TR, 2000, ECOL APPL, V10, P1792 NAYLOR RL, 2000, NATURE, V405, P1017 SANCHEZMATA A, 2000, J APPL ICHTHYOL, V16, P209 THEODOROU J, 1999, SEAFOOD INT, V14, P35 VOLPE JP, 2000, CONSERV BIOL, V14, P899 NR 18 TC 0 J9 HYDROBIOLOGIA BP 245 EP 248 PY 2004 PD SEP VL 525 IS 1-3 GA 848RB UT ISI:000223483700015 ER PT J AU Dyson, T TI On development, demography and climate change: The end of the world as we know it? SO POPULATION AND ENVIRONMENT LA English DT Article C1 Univ London London Sch Econ & Polit Sci, Inst Dev Studies, London WC2A 2AE, England. RP Dyson, T, Univ London London Sch Econ & Polit Sci, Inst Dev Studies, Houghton St, London WC2A 2AE, England. AB This paper comments on the issue of global warming and climate change, in an attempt to provide fresh perspective. Essentially, five main arguments are made. First, that the process of modern economic development has been based on the burning of fossil fuels, and that this will continue to apply for the foreseeable future. Second, that in large part due to momentum in economic and demographic processes, it is inevitable that there will be a major rise in atmospheric CO2 during the present century. Third, that available data on global temperatures suggest strongly that the coming warming will be appreciably faster than anything that humanity has experienced during historical times. Moreover, especially in a system that is being forced, the chance of an abrupt change in climate happening must be rated as fair. Fourth, that while it is impossible to attach precise probabilities to different scenarios, the range of plausible unpleasant climate outcomes seems at least as great as the range of more manageable ones. The consequences of future climate change may be considerable; indeed, they could be almost inconceivable-with several negative changes occurring simultaneously and to cumulative adverse effect. There is an urgent need to improve ways of thinking about what could happen. Fifth, the paper maintains that the human response to other difficult 'long' threats-such as that posed by HIV/AIDS-reveals a broadly analogous sequence of social reactions (e.g. denial, avoidance, recrimination) to that which is unfolding with respect to carbon emissions and climate change. Therefore the view expressed here is that major behavioral change to limit world carbon emissions is unlikely in the foreseeable future, and that the broad sway of future events is probably now set to run its course. CR *BRIT PETR, 2005, BP STAT REV WORLD EN *HADL CTR, 2005, STAB CLIM AV DANG CL *IEA, 2005, WORLD EN OUTL 2005 *IPCC, 1990, CLIM CHANG IPCC SCI *IPCC, 1995, CLIM CHANG 1995 SCI MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 *IPCC, 2001, CLIM CHANG 2001 SCI *IPCC, 2001, IPCC SPEC REP EM SCE *IPCC, 2001, SUMM POL *NAT RES COUNC, 2002, ABRUPT CLIM CHANG IN *NRC, 2000, REC OBS GLOB TEMP CH *UK MET OFF, 2005, FOR GLOB TEMP LAT FO *UN, 2005, WORLD POP PROSP 2004 *WMO, 2003, CLIMATE 21 CENTURY *WORLD EN COUNC, 2004, SURV EN RES 2004 *WORLD RES I, 2003, WORLD RES 2002 2004 AVERY DT, 2003, AM OUTLOOK BODANSKY D, 2001, P INT SEM NUCL WAR P BRYDEN HL, 2005, NATURE, V438, P655 BURROUGHS WJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE MULTI CALVIN WH, 1998, ATL MON JAN, P47 CIPOLLA CM, 1967, EC HIST WORLD POPULA CURRAN J, 2001, ENCYCLOPEDIA DEMERITT D, 2001, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V91, P307 FLAVIN C, 1996, VITAL SIGNS 1996 199 HANSEN J, 2005, GLOBAL TEMPERATURE HANSEN JE, 2001, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V98, P14778 HARTE J, 1988, CONSIDER SPHERICAL C HILLMAN M, 2004, HOW CAN SAVE PLANET HOUGHTON JT, 2004, GLOBAL WARMING COMPL JONES P, 2005, GLOBAL TEMPERATURE R KANE H, 1996, VITAL SIGNS 1996 199 KEELING CD, 2004, ATMOSPHERIC CO2 CONC KEELING CD, 2005, ATMOSPHERIC CARBON D KUZNETS S, 1966, MODERN EC GROWTH LOHMANN L, 1999, DYSON EFFECT CARBON LOHMANN L, 2001, INTELLECTUAL CORRUPT MOBBS P, 2005, ENERGY BEYOND OIL NEMANI RR, 2003, SCIENCE, V300, P1560 ONEILL BC, 2001, POPULATION CLIMATE C ORESKES N, 2004, SCIENCE, V306, P5702 OSBORN T, 2004, CLIMATE RES PALMER P, 2003, WARMING COULD BRING PALUTIKOF J, 2004, GLOBAL TEMPERATURE PEARCE F, 1997, NEW SCI, V139, P38 PEARCE F, 1999, NEW SCI, V164, P20 PONTING C, 1993, GREEN HIST WORLD PRINS G, 2003, INTRO C KNOWLEDGE EN ROBINSON AB, 1998, ENV EFFECTS INCREASE SMIL V, 2003, ENERGY CROSSROADS STIPP D, 2004, FORTUNE MAGAZIN 0209 VANDENHOVE S, 2003, CLIM POLICY, V2, P3 WEART SR, 2003, DISCOVERY GLOBAL WAR WRIGLEY EA, 1988, CONTINUITY CHANCE CH ZITTEL W, 2003, ANAL BP STAT REV WOR NR 55 TC 0 J9 POP ENVIRON BP 117 EP 149 PY 2005 PD NOV VL 27 IS 2 GA 060BJ UT ISI:000238775900001 ER PT J AU Cederwall, K Brandt, M TI Workshop 6 (synthesis): linking between flood risks and land use changes SO WATER SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY LA English DT Article C1 KTH, S-10044 Stockholm, Sweden. SMHI, S-60179 Norrkoping, Sweden. RP Cederwall, K, KTH, S-10044 Stockholm, Sweden. AB Land use changes, such as deforestation, are increasing the world's vulnerability to flooding. Detailed knowledge of the local situation is essential for risk assessment and design of effective flood prevention measures and governs the infrastructure and engineering measures implemented. However extreme floods in large catchments can overwhelm both natural capacity and constructed flood management measures. NR 0 TC 0 J9 WATER SCI TECHNOL BP 181 EP 182 PY 2002 VL 45 IS 8 GA 552DL UT ISI:000175603500028 ER PT J AU Martinez-Balleste, A Martorell, C Martinez-Ramos, M Caballero, J TI Applying retrospective demographic models to assess sustainable use: the Maya management of xa'an palms SO ECOLOGY AND SOCIETY LA English DT Article C1 Univ Nacl Autonoma Mexico, Mexico City 04510, DF, Mexico. RP Martinez-Balleste, A, Univ Nacl Autonoma Mexico, Mexico City 04510, DF, Mexico. AB Xa'an palm (Sabal yapa) has been used to thatch traditional Maya houses for over 3000 years. In the Yucatan Peninsula, this palm has been introduced to pasturelands, maize fields (milpas), and homegardens. These and other traditional management systems are usually believed to be sustainable, but there is as yet little evidence to support this hypothesis. Demographic models have been used for this purpose, mainly focusing on population growth rate (lambda). So far, retrospective analysis has not been applied, even though it examines how changes in the the life cycle of a species, caused by different management regimes, affect its lambda. In this study, we assess whether ecologically sustainable use of xa'an occurs in homegardens, pasturelands, and milpas, and if so, how it is achieved. We constructed matrix population models for four populations of xa'an that were followed for 3 years, and then conducted a retrospective analysis on them. Management in homegardens seems to be oriented to increasing the availability of xa'an leaves, favoring the survival of seedlings, and increasing the density of harvestable-sized palms. However, in the milpa and the pastureland, the population size structure resembles that of unmanaged populations. Our lambda values suggest that the traditional use of xa'an in all the studied management regimes is sustainable. Nevertheless, the processes that lead to sustainable use are different in each system, as shown by our retrospective analysis. Although fecundity contributes positively to lambda only in homegardens, permanence and growth maintain palm populations at an equilibrium in the pastureland and in the milpa, respectively. Between-year climatic differences had a smaller impact on lambda than management practices, which may vary from one year to another, leading to different balances in the sustainable use of the populations involved. Even though no significant differences were found in lambda values, Maya achieve sustainable use of xa'an palm under diverse scenarios by managing the great plasticity of the species, as was revealed by the retrospective analysis. Hence, this approach proved to be effective, not only for assessing sustainable use, but also for understanding the factors that favor or limit it. CR ARAUS JL, 1994, AM J BOT, V81, P726 ARNOLD JEM, 1995, TREE MANAGEMENT FARM AUGSPURGER CK, 1984, J ECOL, V72, P777 BERKES F, 2000, ECOL APPL, V10, P1251 BONGERS F, 1990, OECOLOGIA, V82, P122 CABALLERO J, 1992, ETNOECOLOGICA, V1, P35 CABALLERO J, 1994, USE MANAGEMENT SABAL CABALLERO J, 2004, PROD FORESTALES MED, P365 CASWELL H, 1989, ECOL MODEL, V46, P221 CASWELL H, 2001, MATRIX POPULATION MO EHRLEN J, 1998, CONSERV BIOL, V12, P470 ENDRESS BA, 2004, CONSERV BIOL, V18, P822 FLORES CF, 2000, ECON BOT, V54, P267 GAMA V, 2001, THESIS U NACIONAL AU GRENAND P, 1996, CURRENT ISSUES NONTI, P177 GRIME JP, 1979, PLANT STRATEGIES VEG HAVERKORT B, 1994, ETNOECOLOGICA, V2, P51 HOMMA AKO, 1996, CURRENT ISSUES NONTI, P59 HORVITZ C, 1997, STRUCTURED POPULATIO, P247 JOYAL E, 1996, ECON BOT, V50, P446 KATES RW, 2001, SCIENCE, V292, P641 LEVIN SA, 1993, ECOL APPL, V3, P545 LUBCHENCO J, 1991, ECOLOGY, V72, P371 MANGEL M, 1993, ECOL APPL, V3, P573 MARTINEZBALLEST.A, 2000, P 7 INT C ETHN ETHN, P381 MARTINEZRAMOS M, 1994, B SOC BOT MEX, V54, P179 MENDOZA A, 1987, J ECOL, V75, P545 MENDOZA A, 1995, THESIS U NACL AUTONO MENGES ES, 1990, CONSERV BIOL, V4, P52 MIRANDA F, 1958, RECURSOS NATURALES S, P213 NEWTON JL, 2005, CONSERV BIOL, V19, P23 OBRIEN KL, 1996, MOL CELL PROBE, V10, P1 OLMSTED I, 1995, ECOL APPL, V5, P484 PADOCH C, 2005, CONSERV BIOL, V19, P39 PINERO D, 1984, J ECOL, V72, P977 POPMA J, 1988, OECOLOGIA, V75, P625 RAMP PF, 1989, THESIS TULANE U NEW RATSIRARSON J, 1996, CONSERV BIOL, V10, P40 SALIBURY FB, 1992, PLANT PHYSL SILVERTOWN J, 1993, J ECOL, V81, P465 STEARNS SC, 1992, EVOLUTION LIFE HIST SVENNING JC, 2001, BOT REV, V67, P1 SVENNING JC, 2002, FOREST ECOL MANAG, V167, P251 SWART RJ, 2002, SCIENCE, V297, P1994 TICKTIN T, 2002, CONSERV BIOL, V16, P691 TURNER NJ, 2000, ECOL APPL, V10, P1275 VAZQUEZYANES C, 1993, ANNU REV ECOL SYST, V24, P69 WOLLENBERG E, 1998, INCOMES FOREST METHO, P1 ZUIDEMA PA, 2000, DEMOGRAPHY EXPLOITED, P109 NR 49 TC 1 J9 ECOL SOC BP 17 PY 2005 PD DEC VL 10 IS 2 GA 001TV UT ISI:000234561400008 ER PT J AU Bass, S Steele, P TI Managing the environment for development and to sustain pro-poor growth SO IDS BULLETIN-INSTITUTE OF DEVELOPMENT STUDIES LA English DT Article AB Environmental resources have made a substantial contribution to economic growth and poverty reduction in Asia. Natural assets, such as fertile soils, rivers and forests, are often critical for the livelihoods of poor people, This article shows how resourceintensive development in Asia has been achieved at significant environmental cost. Environmental problems such as deforestation, pressure on water supplies, and pollution from industry place real limits on further economic growth and increase the region's already high vulnerability to natural disasters. The challenge for governments and policy makers is to use natural wealth to generate growth and enable poor people to benefit from this growth, while at the same time sustaining its capacity to produce these benefits in the future. The article argues that progress can be advanced through international partnerships which build on existing initiatives in a number of areas including climate change, sustainable forestry and fishing, disaster preparedness and pro-poor conservation. CR 1990, FAR E EC REV 1018 2004, TIME MAGAZINE 1213, P17 2005, OBSERVER 1204 *ADB, 2005, AS ENV OUTL *DAC ENVIRONET TAS, 2005, SUST PROP GROWTH OCT *DFID EC UNDP WORL, 2002, LINK POV RED ENV MAN *DFID, 2004, CLIM CHANG POV MAK D *ENV INT, 2002, INT ENV MON GLOB PUB *ESCAP, 2005, 5 MIN C ENV DEV AS P *FAO, 2004, FOOD SEC AS PAC REG *FORD FDN, 1998, FOR SUST RUR DEV REV *MEA, 2005, MILL EC ASS *MIN NAT RES ENV W, 2004, THAIL ENV MON *OECD, 2004, MAINSTR CLIM RESP DE *UN SECR, 2002, WORLD POP PROSP 2002 *UNEP, 2002, GLOB ENV OUTL *UNEP, 2004, GEO YB 2004 5 *WORLD BANK, 2005, ENV STRAT WORLD BANK *WORLD BANK, 2005, LITTL GREEN DAT BOOK *WRI, 2005, WEALTH POOR MAN EC F BASS S, 2005, REDUCING POVERTY SUS BRIONES M, 2004, NAGA WORLDFISH C JUL, P4 DASGUPTA S, 2004, 3428 WORLD BANK POL JODHA NS, 1990, EC POLITICAL WE 0630, A65 LIU Z, 2004, WORLD BANK SHANGH C MAYERS J, 2001, COMPANY COMMUNITY FO PEARCE D, 2005, INVESTING ENV WEALTH RAMIREZ L, 2005, VOICE AM 0318 ROY AD, 2002, SOCIOECOLOGY GROUNDW NR 29 TC 2 J9 IDS BULL-INST DEVELOP STUD BP 7 EP + PY 2006 PD MAY VL 37 IS 3 GA 067UZ UT ISI:000239329400002 ER PT J AU Arnell, NW Cannell, MGR Hulme, M Kovats, RS Mitchell, JFB Nicholls, RJ Parry, ML Livermore, MTJ White, A TI The consequences of CO2 stabilisation for the impacts of climate change SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 Univ Southampton, Dept Geog, Southampton SO9 5NH, Hants, England. NERC, Ctr Ecol & Hydrol, Edinburgh, Midlothian, Scotland. Univ E Anglia, Tyndall Ctr Climate Change Res, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. London Sch Hyg & Trop Med, Ctr Globalisat Environm Change & Hlth, London, England. Middlesex Univ, Flood Hazard Res Ctr, London N17 8HR, England. Univ E Anglia, Jackson Environm Inst, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. Univ E Anglia, Climat Res Unit, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. Heriot Watt Univ, Dept Math, Edinburgh EH14 4AS, Midlothian, Scotland. RP Arnell, NW, Univ Southampton, Dept Geog, Southampton SO9 5NH, Hants, England. AB This paper reports the main results of an assessment of the global-scale implications of the stabilisation of atmospheric CO2 concentrations at 750 ppm (by 2250) and 550 ppm (by 2150), in relation to a scenario of unmitigated emissions. The climate change scenarios were derived from simulation experiments conducted with the HadCM2 global climate model and forced with the IPCC IS92a, S750 and S550 emissions scenarios. The simulated changes in climate were applied to an observed global baseline climatology, and applied with impacts models to estimate impacts on natural vegetation, water resources, coastal flood risk and wetland loss, crop yield and food security, and malaria. The studies used a single set of population and socio-economic scenarios about the future that are similar to those adopted in the IS92a emissions scenario. An emissions pathway which stabilises CO2 concentrations at 750 ppm by the 2230s delays the 2050 temperature increase under unmitigated emissions by around 50 years. The loss of tropical forest and grassland which occurs by the 2050s under unmitigated emissions is delayed to the 22nd century, and the switch from carbon sink to carbon source is delayed from the 2050s to the 2170s. Coastal wetland loss is slowed. Stabilisation at 750 ppm generally has relatively little effect on the impacts of climate change on water resource stress, and populations at risk of hunger or falciparum malaria until the 2080s. A pathway which stabilises CO2 concentrations at 550 ppm by the 2170s delays the 2050 temperature increase under unmitigated emissions by around 100 years. There is no substantial loss of tropical forest or grassland, even by the 2230s, although the terrestrial carbon store ceases to act as a net carbon sink by around 2170 (this time because the vegetation has reached a new equilibrium with the atmosphere). Coastal wetland loss is slowed considerably, and the increase in coastal flood risk is considerably lower than under unmitigated emissions. CO2 stabilisation at 550 ppm reduces substantially water resource stress, relative to unmitigated emissions, but has relatively little impact on populations at risk of falciparum malaria, and may even cause more people to be at risk of hunger. While this study shows that mitigation avoids many impacts, particularly in the longer-term (beyond the 2080s), stabilisation at 550 ppm appears to be necessary to avoid or significantly reduce most of the projected impacts in the unmitigated case. CR *EN MOD FOR, 1995, 14 EMF *IPCC, 1997, 3 IPCC *IPCC, 2000, SPEC REP EM SCEN *WORLD MET ORG, 1997, COMPR ASS FRESHW RES ARNELL NW, 1999, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHA S, V9, S31 ARNELL NW, 1999, J HYDROL, V217, P314 BOS E, 1994, WORLD POPULATION PRO CARNELL RE, 1998, CLIM DYNAM, V14, P369 COLLINS M, 2000, J CLIMATE, V13, P1299 FRIEND AD, 1997, ECOL MODEL, V95, P249 FRIEND AD, 2000, GLOBAL BIOGEOCHEM CY, V14, P1173 HENDERSONSELLERS A, 1998, B AM METEOROL SOC, V79, P19 HOOZEMANS FMJ, 1993, GLOBAL VULNERABILITY HULME M, 1999, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHA S, V9, S3 JOHNS TC, 1997, CLIM DYNAM, V13, P103 KLEIN RJT, 1999, AMBIO, V28, P182 KNUTSON TR, 1998, SCIENCE, V279, P1018 KROL M, 1997, MITIGATION ADAPTATIO, V1, P341 LEGGETT J, 1992, CLIMATE CHANGE 1992, P69 MARTENS P, 1999, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHA S, V9, S89 MCMICHAEL AJ, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE HUMAN, P297 MITCHELL JFB, 1999, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V41, P547 MITCHELL JFB, 2000, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V27, P2997 NEW M, 1999, J CLIMATE, V12, P829 NICHOLLS RJ, 1999, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHA S, V9, PS69 PARRY ML, 1998, NATURE, V395, P741 PARRY ML, 1999, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHA S, V9, PS51 RASKIN P, 1997, WATER FUTURES ASSESS, P78 ROSENZWEIG C, 1994, NATURE, V367, P133 SHIKLOMANOV IA, 1998, ASSESSMENT WATER RES, P88 WHITE A, 1999, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHA S, V9, S21 WHITE A, 2000, GLOB CHANGE BIOL, V6, P817 WIGLEY TML, 1993, CLIMATE SEA LEVEL CH, P111 WIGLEY TML, 1996, NATURE, V379, P242 WIGLEY TML, 1998, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V25, P2285 NR 35 TC 9 J9 CLIMATIC CHANGE BP 413 EP 446 PY 2002 PD JUN VL 53 IS 4 GA 545JT UT ISI:000175214400002 ER PT J AU Owuor, B Eriksen, S Mauta, W TI Adapting to climate change in a dryland mountain environment in Kenya SO MOUNTAIN RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT LA English DT Article C1 Kenya Forestry Res Inst, Nairobi, Kenya. Univ Oslo, Dept Sociol & Human Geog, N-0317 Oslo, Norway. RP Owuor, B, Kenya Forestry Res Inst, POB 20412,00200 City Sq, Nairobi, Kenya. AB Global warming is likely to lead to a variety of changes in local climatic conditions, including potential increases in the frequency and intensity of extreme climatic events such as drought, floods, and storms. Present capacity to respond to and manage climatic variability, including extreme events, is an important component of adjustments to climatic changes. In particular, identifying and addressing constraints on local adaptation mechanisms-whether political, economic or social in nature-is critical to developing effective adaptation policies. The drylands of Kenya present great survival challenges to the people living in these areas. The hilltops in the drylands provide favorable climate and resources for adapting to climate change. The present paper examines the role that one particular hilltop, Endau in Kitui District, eastern Kenya, plays in processes of local adaptation to climatic variability and drought. The project presented here investigated how conflict and exclusion from key hilltop resources constrain adaptation among the population groups living around the hilltop, and how these constraints are negotiated, addressed, or even exacerbated through institutional arrangements and development activities. CR BURTON I, 2002, CLIM POLICY, V2, P145 GACHATHL FNM, 1996, BIODIVERSITY AFRICAN, P313 JOUBERT AM, 1997, PROG PHYS GEOG, V21, P51 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 NR 4 TC 0 J9 MT RES DEV BP 310 EP 315 PY 2005 PD NOV VL 25 IS 4 GA 997GB UT ISI:000234232200004 ER PT J AU Thebaud, B Batterbury, S TI Sahel pastoralists: opportunism, struggle, conflict and negotiation. A case study from eastern Niger SO GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS LA English DT Article C1 Ecole Hautes Etud Sci Sociales, Paris, France. Univ London London Sch Econ & Polit Sci, Inst Dev Studies, London WC2A 2AE, England. RP Thebaud, B, Ecole Hautes Etud Sci Sociales, Paris, France. AB The livelihoods and life chances of pastoral communities in the West African Sahel are linked to: the complexity of the activities they must engage in to insure access to resources; to the nature of conflicts and co-operation between ethnic groups; to the inconsistent role of the state in assisting or constraining pastoral livelihoods; and to the negative discourse surrounding pastoralism that still circulates in some government and development policy circles. The paper reviews pastoral livelihoods systems in eastern Niger to illustrate changing modes of access to water and pasture: culminating in present-day tensions and conflict between pastoral groups. State development efforts to provide secure watering points for pastoral herds have initiated social conflicts and violence, rather than creating security, No viable solution has yet been found to control the use of public wells and boreholes. Enabling frameworks for negotiation and conflict resolution must be developed locally, and centrally enforced in this, and many other regions of uncertain climatic change and overlapping systems of resource exploitation. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *IIED, 1999, LAND TEN RES ACC W A BARTH H, 1858, TRAVELS DISCOVERIES BASSETT TJ, 2000, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V90, P67 BATTERBURY S, 1998, J INT DEV, V10, P871 BATTERBURY S, 1999, ENVIRONMENT, V41, P6 BEHNKE R, 1994, NATURAL RESOURCE MAN BEHNKE RH, 1993, RANGE ECOLOGY DISEQU BLAIKIE PM, 1994, RISK NATURAL HAZARDS, V1, P1 CHAPELLE J, 1987, SOUVENIRS SAHEL CHARLICK RB, 1991, NIGER PERSONAL RULE COUR JM, 2001, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V11, P31 COUSINS B, 2000, EVOLVING LAND RIGHTS, P151 DELVILLLE PL, 2000, EVOLVING LANG RIGHTS, P97 DUPIRE M, 1962, TRAVAUX MEMOIRES, V64 HENDRICKSON D, 1999, 80 IIED LOND HULME M, 2001, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V11, P19 LANE C, 1994, LIVING UNCERTAINTY N LUND C, 1998, LAW POWER POLITICS N LUND C, 1999, AFRICA, V69, P575 MACE R, 1991, NATURE, V349, P280 MARTY A, 1993, REV TIERS MONDE, V34, P327 MCCAY BJ, 1998, HUM ORGAN, V57, P21 MORTIMORE MJ, 1998, ROOTS AFRICAN DUST S NACHTIGAL G, 1879, SAHARA SUDAN ERGEBNI OSTROM E, 1986, P C COMM PROP RES MA, P597 RAYNAUT C, 2001, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V11, P9 REQUIERDESJARDI.M, 1988, 7 COMM PROP C INT AS ROJAT D, 1991, ETUDES SYNTHESIS I E, V37 STENNING DJ, 1959, S NOMADS STUDY WODAA TAYLOR VNH, 1996, BURKINA FASO W LONDO, V3, P55 THEBAUD B, 1988, ELEVAGE DEV NIGER AV THEBAUD B, 1990, CAHIERS SCI HUMAINES, V26, P97 THEBAUD B, 1995, RECOGNISING EFFECTIV THEBAUD B, 1999, THESIS TOULMIN C, 2000, EVOLVING LAND RIGHTS, P229 WARREN A, 1995, T I BRIT GEOGR, V20, P193 WARREN A, 2001, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V11, P79 WILLIAMS T, 1998, NATURAL RESOURCE PER, V38 ZAKARI M, 1985, ETUDES NIGERIENNES, V53 NR 39 TC 0 J9 GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANGE BP 69 EP 78 PY 2001 PD APR VL 11 IS 1 GA 405NC UT ISI:000167165000007 ER PT J AU Huq, S Reid, H Konate, M Rahman, A Sokona, Y Crick, F TI Mainstreaming adaptation to climate change in Least Developed Countries (LDCs) SO CLIMATE POLICY LA English DT Article C1 IIED, Climate Change Program, London WC1H 0DD, England. BCAS, Dhaka 1212, Bangladesh. OSS, BP-1080 Tunis, Tunisia. Univ Sheffield, Dept Geog, Sheffield S10 2TN, S Yorkshire, England. RP Huq, S, IIED, Climate Change Program, 3 Endsleigh St, London WC1H 0DD, England. AB The Least Developed Countries (LDCs) are a group of 49 of the world's poorest countries. They have contributed least to the emission of greenhouse gases (GHGs) but they are most vulnerable to the effects of climate change. This is due to their location in some of the most vulnerable regions of the world and their low capacities to adapt to these changes. Adaptation to climate change has become an important policy priority in the international negotiations on climate change in recent years. However, it has yet to become a major policy issue within developing countries, especially the LDCs. This article focuses on two LDCs, namely Bangladesh and Mali, where progress has been made regarding identifying potential adaptation options. For example, Bangladesh already has effective disaster response systems, and strategies to deal with reduced freshwater availability, and Mali has a well-developed programme for providing agro-hydro-meteorological assistance to communities in times of drought. However, much remains to be done in terms of mainstreaming adaptation to climate change within the national policyrnaking processes of these countries. Policymakers need targeting and, to facilitate this, scientific research must be translated into appropriate language and timescales. CR WATSON RT, 1998, REGIONAL IMPACTS CLI, V1, P1 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 *SMRC, 2000, VULN ASS SAARC COAST *UN, 1992, UN FRAM CONV CLIM CH *UN, 2001, MARR ACC *UN, 2001, STAT PROF LDCS *UNCTAD, 2000, LEAST DEV COUNTR 200 *UNCTAD, 2001, 3 UN C LDCS BRUSS 13 *UNCTAD, 2001, FDI LEAST DEV COUNTR ABRAMOVITZ J, 2002, ADAPTING CLIMATE CHA ADGER WN, 2003, PROGR DEV STUDIES, V3, P179 APUULI B, 2000, ENVIRON MONIT ASSESS, V61, P145 DESSAI S, 2002, 5 TYND CTR CLIM CHAN HABIBULLAH M, 1998, VULNERABILITY ADAPTA, P55 HUQ S, 2003, MAINSTREAMING ADAPTA KONATE M, 2001, B AFRICAIN BIORESSOU, V14 KONATE M, 2003, 3 MAL COUNTR CAS STU MAGADZA CHD, 2000, ENVIRON MONIT ASSESS, V61, P193 PIELKE RA, 1998, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V8, P159 RAHMAN A, 2003, 2 BANGL COUNTR CAS S SOKONA Y, 2001, CLIM POLICY, V1, P117 NR 21 TC 0 J9 CLIM POLICY BP 25 EP 43 PY 2004 VL 4 IS 1 GA 892TJ UT ISI:000226672600004 ER PT J AU Leatherman, T TI A space of vulnerability in poverty and health: Political-ecology and biocultural analysis SO ETHOS LA English DT Article C1 Univ S Carolina, Dept Anthropol, Columbia, SC 29208 USA. RP Leatherman, T, Univ S Carolina, Dept Anthropol, Columbia, SC 29208 USA. AB In this article I present a political-ecological approach for biocultural analyses that attempts to synthesize perspectives from anthropological political economy and those from ecological anthropology and human adaptability approaches. The approach is used to examine contexts and consequences of vulnerability among Andean peoples in southern Peru, and specifically the ongoing and dialectical relationships between poverty, illness, and household production. Household demographic composition, class position, economic status, and interpersonal relations are all important in shaping their experience with illness, and coping capacity in dealing with the consequences of illness on household livelihood. I suggest that the contexts and consequences of vulnerability among rural producers in southern Peru contributed in part to the spread of the Sendero Luminoso revolutionary movement into the region in the late 1980s and early 1990s. 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CR AYRE RS, 1975, EARTHQUAKE TSUNAMI H BENJAMIN JR, 1970, PROBABILITY STATISTI BERLIN GL, 1980, EARTHQUAKES URBAN EN BORIS CM, 1980, WATER RIGHTS ENERGY BRAS RL, 1981, WATER RESOUR RES, V17, P866 BROWN L, 1981, SW REV MANAGEMENT EC, V1, P20 BURTON I, 1978, ENV HAZARD, V1, P1 CHARNES A, 1961, MANAGEMENT MODELS IN CHARNES A, 1975, GEOGR ANAL, V7, P121 CHRISTENSEN LR, 1976, J POLITICAL EC, V84, P655 COASE RH, 1960, J LAW ECON, V3, P1 COVELLO VT, 1985, RISK ANAL, V5, P103 DRYHMES AJ, 1964, ECONOMETRICA, V32 FIERING MB, 1982, WATER RESOUR RES, V18, P27 FIERING MB, 1982, WATER RESOUR RES, V18, P33 FIERING MB, 1982, WATER RESOUR RES, V18, P41 FIERING MB, 1982, WATER RESOUR RES, V18, P51 FREDERICK KD, 1981, SW REV, V1, P19 GEORGIANNA TD, IN PRESS RESOURCE MA GEORGIANNA TD, 1981, ECON GEOGR, V57, P225 GEORGIANNA TD, 1985, P PITTSBURGH MODELIN, V16, P235 GIBSON SB, 1976, J OCCUP ACCIDENTS, V1, P85 GREBSTEIN CR, 1979, WATER RESOUR RES, V15, P2 GUARISO G, 1980, ENVIRON PLANN A, V12, P369 GUARISO G, 1981, GEOGR ANAL, V13, P355 HASHIMOTO T, 1982, WATER RESOUR RES, V18, P14 HAYNES KE, 1981, P C WATER MANAGEMENT HAYNES KE, 1984, J AM PLANN ASSOC, V55, P359 HEADY EO, 1976, AGR WATER POLICIES E HEWITT K, 1970, EC GEOGRAPHY S, V46, P332 HEWITT K, 1985, INTERPRETATIONS CALA HOLLING CS, 1973, ANNUAL REV ECOLOGY S, V4, P1 KATES RW, 1971, ECON GEOGR, V47, P438 KRUTILLA JV, 1978, EC FISCAL IMPACTS CO LAKSHMANAN TR, 1980, EC ENV ENERGY INTERA, P7 LAKSHMANAN TR, 1985, LARGE SCALE ENERGY P, P187 MATTHEWS OP, 1984, WATER RESOURCES GEOG MILLER T, 1985, ENV SCI REVELLE C, 1984, UNPUB RELIABILITY VU THOMAS WA, 1963, OPERATIONS RES WATER WESCOAT JL, 1984, 210 U CHIC DEP GEOGR WHITE GF, 1974, NATURAL HAZARDS LOCA WISNER B, 1982, ANTIPODE, V14, P1 NR 43 TC 1 J9 COMPUT ENVIRON URBAN SYST BP 75 EP 94 PY 1989 VL 13 IS 2 GA AH146 UT ISI:A1989AH14600003 ER PT J AU Krysanova, V Hattermann, F Habeck, A TI Expected changes in water resources availability and water quality with respect to climate change in the Elbe River basin (Germany) SO NORDIC HYDROLOGY LA English DT Article C1 Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res, Global Change & Nat Syst Dept, D-14412 Potsdam, Germany. RP Krysanova, V, Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res, Global Change & Nat Syst Dept, POB 601203, D-14412 Potsdam, Germany. AB Reliable modelling of climate-water interactions at the river basin and regional scale requires development of advanced modelling approaches at scales relevant for assessing the potential effects of climate change on the hydrological cycle. These approaches should represent the atmospheric, surface and subsurface hydrological processes and take into account their characteristic temporal and spatial scales of occurrence. The paper presents a climate change impact assessment performed for the Elbe River basin in Germany (about 100 000 km(2)). The method used for the study combines: (a) a statistical downscaling method driven by GCM-predicted temperature trend for producing climate scenarios,and (b) a simulation technique based on an ecohydrological semi-distributed river basin model, which was thoroughly validated in advance. The overall result of the climate impact study for the basin is that the mean water discharge and the mean groundwater recharge in the Elbe basin will be most likely decreased under the expected climate change and diffuse source pollution will be diminished. Our study confirms that the uncertainty in hydrological and water quality responses to changing climate is generally higher than the uncertainty in climate input. The method is transferable to other basins in the temperate zone. CR *CLIM CHANG WAT QU, 2003, REP GREAT LAK WAT QU *US ARM CORPS ENG, 1993, REF MAN ALEXANDER RB, 1996, BIOGEOCHEMISTRY, V33, P149 ARNELL NW, 1998, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V39, P83 ARNELL NW, 1999, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V9, P5 ARNOLD JG, 1990, SWRRB BASIN SCALE SI, P255 ARNOLD JG, 1993, J HYDROL, V142, P47 FRISK T, 1997, BOREAL ENVIRON RES, V2, P53 HANRATTY MP, 1998, J ENVIRON QUAL, V27, P1524 HATTERMANN F, 2004, ENVIRON MODELL SOFTW, V19, P1039 HATTERMANN FF, 2002, INTEGRATED ASSESSMEN, V1, P281 JANSONS V, 1998, P 2 INT C CLIM WAT E, P932 KALLIO K, 1997, BOREAL ENVIRON RES, V2, P33 KRYSANOVA V, 1989, ECOL MODEL, V49, P7 KRYSANOVA V, 1998, ECOL MODEL, V106, P261 KRYSANOVA V, 1999, ENVIRON MODEL ASSESS, V4, P259 KRYSANOVA V, 2000, 69 PIK KRYSANOVA V, 2002, ADV GLOB CHANGE RES, V10, P271 KRYSANOVA V, 2002, ECOL MODEL, V150, P255 KRYSANOVA V, 2004, COMPLEXITY INTEGRATE MAIDMENT DR, 1993, HDB HYDROLOGY MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 MONTEITH JL, 1965, S SOC EXP BIOL, V19, P205 MURDOCH PS, 2000, J AM WATER RESOUR AS, V36, P347 PRIESTLEY CHB, 1972, MON WEATHER REV, V100, P81 REILLY JM, 1999, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V43, P745 RENGER M, 2002, J PLANT NUTR SOIL SC, V165, P487 SMEDEMA LK, 1983, LAND DRAINAGE PLANNI WATSON RT, 1998, REGIONAL IMPACTS CLI, V1, P1 WERNER PC, 1997, CLIMATE RES, V8, P171 WILLIAMS JR, 1977, T ASAE, V20, P1100 WILLIAMS JR, 1983, J SOIL WATER CONSERV, V38, P381 NR 32 TC 1 J9 NORD HYDROL BP 321 EP 333 PY 2005 VL 36 IS 4-5 GA 992HP UT ISI:000233875300004 ER PT J AU Hawkes, P Surendran, S Richardson, D TI Use of UKCIP02 climate-change scenarios in flood and coastal defence SO JOURNAL OF THE CHARTERED INSTITUTION OF WATER AND ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article C1 HR Wallingford Ltd, Wallingford, Oxon, England. Environm Agcy, Bristol, Avon, England. RP Hawkes, P, HR Wallingford Ltd, Wallingford, Oxon, England. AB Understanding the uncertainties and risks from climate change is necessary for managing and adapting to those risks. Climate-change scenarios provide a starting point for assessing climate-change vulnerability, impact and adaptation. In April 2002, the UK Climate Impacts Programme released new future climate scenarios and was based on modelling at the Hadley Centre, which included temperature, soil moisture, rainfall, runoff, sea-level rise and wind speed. These data provide a consistent source of information for use in UK climate-change impact studies. This paper (a) summarises some of the results from this programme, (b) explores their implications, and (c) recommends how these results could be applied in UK flood and coastal defence. The opinions of about twenty selected individuals, who were involved in flood and coastal defence, were collated to assess current practice in the use of climate-change information, requirements of climate-change scenarios, and comparison of the content of UKCIP02 with those requirements. CR *DEFRA ENV AG, 2002, FD2302TR1 DEFR FLOOD *ENV AG DEFR, 2002, W5B029PR ENV AG *ENV AG DEFR, 2002, W5B029TR ENV AG *ENV AG, 2000, 21 ENV AG *MAFF, 1999, PB4650 MAFF *MAFF, 2000, PB4907 MAFF, V4 *MAFF, 2001, FLOOD COAST DEF PROJ, V1 *UKCIP ENV AG, 2003, CLIM AD RISK UNC DEC *UN KINGD CLIM IMP, 2002, UKCIP02 U E ANGL SCH FLATHER RA, 2001, 140 PROUDM OC LAB RICHARDSON D, 2002, P I CIVIL ENG-CIV EN, V150, P22 SUTHERLAND JA, 2002, SR590 WALLINGFORD HR, 1980, 924 EX NR 13 TC 0 J9 J CHART INST WATER ENV MANAGE BP 214 EP 219 PY 2003 PD NOV VL 17 IS 4 GA 751HX UT ISI:000187060700004 ER PT J AU Hampshire, K TI Fulani on the move: Seasonal economic migration in the sahel as a social process SO JOURNAL OF DEVELOPMENT STUDIES LA English DT Article C1 Univ Coll London, London WC1E 6BT, England. RP Hampshire, K, Univ Coll London, London WC1E 6BT, England. AB Most research on short-term rural to urban migration and its impacts takes an economic approach and often emphasises negative aspects of migration, linking it synergistically with rural poverty in sending areas. Data from Fulani migrants in Northern Burkina Faso challenge this pessimistic view of short-term labour migration. Rather than a response to destitution, migration seems to be a useful way in which reasonably prosperous households can further enhance livelihood security. Moreover, factors not easily incorporated into a standard economic analysis, identity and village networks, emerge as being essential to the understanding of migration in this population. Finally, migration emerges as a highly dynamic process, which an ahistorical, static framework of analysis fails to capture. CR *INSD, 1994, ANAL RESULTATS ENQUE ADAMS A, 1993, IDS BULL-I DEV STUD, V24, P41 BAIKIE P, 1987, LAND DEGRADATION SOC BARRAL H, 1977, POPULATIONS NOMADES BAYLISSSMITH T, 1991, IDS BULL-I DEV STUD, V22, P5 BONFIGLIOLI AM, 1988, DUDAL HIST FAMILLE H BREMAN J, 1985, PEASANTS MIGRANTS PA BURNHAM P, 1999, POLITICS CULTURAL DI CHIRWA WC, 1997, INT MIGR REV, V31, P628 CLAUDE J, 1991, ESPACE SAHELIEN MARE CLEVELAND DA, 1991, AFRICA, V61, P222 CORDELL DD, 1996, HOE WAGE SOCIAL HIST DAVID R, 1995, CHANGING PLACES WOME DAVIES S, 1996, ADAPTABLE LIVELIHOOD DEBRUIJN M, 1995, ARID WAYS DEHAAN A, 1999, J DEV STUD, V36, P1 DUPIRE M, 1962, PEULS NOMADES ETUDES DUPIRE M, 1970, ORG SOCIALE PEUL FINDLEY SE, 1989, CHOOSING AFRICAN FRE FINDLEY SE, 1994, INT MIGR REV, V28, P539 GUILMOTO CZ, 1998, POP STUD-J DEMOG, V52, P85 HAMPSHIRE KR, 1999, INT J POPULATION GEO, V5, P367 HOPEN C, 1958, PASTORAL FULBE FAMIL ILIFFE J, 1987, AFRICAN POOR COMP HI KATZ E, 1986, J LABOR ECON, V4, P134 KNERR B, 1998, POPULATION ENV ARID MALIKI AB, 1984, PASTRAL DEV CENTRAL MONIMART M, 1989, FEMMES SAHEL DESERTI PAINTER TA, 1992, MIGRATION AIDS W AFR PEDERSEN J, 1995, POP STUD-J DEMOG, V49, P111 RAYNAUT C, 1997, SOC NATURE SAHEL RIESMAN P, 1977, FREEDOM FULANI SOCIA RUSSELL SS, 1990, WORLD BANK DISCUSSIO, V102 RUTHVEN O, 1995, CASE STUDY DOGON CER RUTHVEN O, 1995, IDS BULL-I DEV STUD, V26, P47 STARK O, 1982, EC DEV CULTURAL CHAN, V31, P191 STENNINGS D, 1959, SAVANNAH NOMADS SWIFT J, 1989, IDS B, V20, P8 TIMAEUS I, 1989, REPROD SOCIAL ORG SU, P365 NR 39 TC 0 J9 J DEVELOP STUD BP 15 EP + PY 2002 PD JUN VL 38 IS 5 GA 575MP UT ISI:000176950300002 ER PT J AU Verstraeten, G Poesen, J TI The nature of small-scale flooding, muddy floods and retention pond sedimentation in central Belgium SO GEOMORPHOLOGY LA English DT Article C1 Catholic Univ Louvain, Lab Expt Geomorphol, B-3000 Louvain, Belgium. RP Verstraeten, G, Catholic Univ Louvain, Lab Expt Geomorphol, Redingenstr 16, B-3000 Louvain, Belgium. AB This study investigates the spatial variation of small-scale flooding and muddy floods in rural areas in a medium sized study area (5516 km(2)) and the linkage with controlling factors. A questionnaire set up in central Belgium indicates that 43% of the municipalities have to deal from time to time with muddy floods generated from direct runoff from arable land and 36% with flooding of permanent streams. A strong relation exists between the nature of the problem and the site in relation to topography and landuse. Areas suffering from muddy floods have significantly steeper cultivated slopes compared to areas suffering only from small-scale flooding. The high spatial and temporal frequency of small-scale flooding and muddy floods results in emotional and significant economic damage to private households. As a control measure more than 100 retention ponds have been constructed with 50 more to be built in the near future. The mean cost for the construction of a retention pond amounts to 380,000 EURO. These retention ponds store large quantities of sediment from runoff events and must thus be dredged regularly with costs of the order of 1.5 million EURO yearly. The dredged sediment volumes can be used to assess and predict sediment yield for these drainage basins; values vary between 0.19 and 6 m(3) ha(-1) year(-1) for basins ranging from 25 to 5000 ha. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. CR BALLINGS P, 1993, THESIS KU LEUVEN LEU BLAIKIE PM, 1994, RISK NATURAL HAZARDS, V1, P1 BOARDMAN J, 1990, SOIL EROSION AGR LAN, P659 BOARDMAN J, 1994, GEOMORPHOLOGY, V10, P183 BOARDMAN J, 1995, GEOGR J, V161, P177 BOARDMAN J, 1998, J SOIL WATER CONSERV, V53, P46 BUTCHER DP, 1993, GEOMORPHOLOGY SEDIME, P73 DEPLOEY J, 1989, SOIL EROSION MAP W E FARRELL T, 1993, NEW STATESMAN SOC, V6, P38 GOVERS G, 1987, CATENA S, V8, P17 HEINEMANN HG, 1984, EROSION SEDIMENT YIE, P201 HIGGITT DL, 1991, PROG PHYS GEOG, V15, P91 MERMANS H, 1997, THESIS KU LEUVEN LEU MORGAN RPC, 1980, PROGR PHYSICAL GEOGR, V4, P24 NEVELSTEEN I, 1997, THESIS KU LEUVEN LEU PAPY F, 1991, AGRONOMIE, V11, P201 PIMENTEL D, 1995, SCIENCE, V267, P1117 POESEN J, 1988, VRIENDEN HEVERLEEBOS, P24 POESEN J, 1990, SOIL EROSION AGR LAN, P513 POESEN J, 1996, IAHS PUBL, V236, P251 POESEN J, 1996, TIJDSCHRIFT BELGISCH, P141 POESEN J, 1998, NATO ASI SER, V155, P285 ROBINSON DA, 1987, SOIL EROSION AGR LAN, P369 SAVAT J, 1982, BADLAND GEOMORPHOLOG, P113 SCHOUTEN CJ, 1985, LANDSCHAP, V2, P118 STAMMERS R, 1984, SURVEYOR, V164, P8 STEEGEN A, 1998, IAHS PUBL, V249, P177 VANDAELE K, 1995, CATENA, V25, P213 VANDERHELM PPM, 1986, BODEMEROSIE WATEROVE VANECK W, 1995, 3642 DLO STAR CENTR VOET M, 1997, WATER, V92, P10 WALRAEVENS A, 1998, THESIS KU LEUVEN LEU WILLIAMS JR, 1975, WATER RESOUR B, V11, P965 NR 33 TC 20 J9 GEOMORPHOLOGY BP 275 EP 292 PY 1999 PD SEP VL 29 IS 3-4 GA 236LB UT ISI:000082600100006 ER PT J AU Obasi, GOP TI Embracing sustainability science: The challenges for Africa SO ENVIRONMENT LA English DT Article C1 World Meteorol Org, CH-1211 Geneva 2, Switzerland. RP Obasi, GOP, World Meteorol Org, 7 Bis,Ave Paix,Case Postale 2300, CH-1211 Geneva 2, Switzerland. CR *INT PAN CLIM CHAN, 2001, CLIM CHANG 2001 SCI MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 *ORG AFR U, 2001, NEW AFR IN *UN CONV COMB DES, 1994, AAC24127 UN *UN POP FUND, 1998, STAT WORLD POP 1998 *UN, 2001, ROL UN SUPP EFF AFR *WHO, 1998, WORLD HEALTH FORUM, V18, P248 *WORLD BANK, 1995, SER AFR TECHN DEP *WORLD COMM ENV DE, 1987, OUR COMM FUT CORNFORD SG, 2001, WMO B, V50, P284 JALLOW BP, 1999, NATL ASSESSMENT RESU, P129 KATES RW, 2001, SCIENCE, V292, P641 LOEVINSOHN ME, 1994, LANCET, V343, P714 OBASI GOP, 1999, 5 GEN C AFR AC SCI H OBASI GOP, 2001, AFR REG WORKSH SUST NR 15 TC 0 J9 ENVIRONMENT BP 8 EP 19 PY 2002 PD MAY VL 44 IS 4 GA 543GG UT ISI:000175092600003 ER PT J AU Fraser, EDG Mabee, W Slaymaker, O TI Mutual vulnerability, mutual dependence - The reflexive relation between human society and the environment. SO GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS LA English DT Article C1 Univ British Columbia, Liu Inst Global Issues, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z2, Canada. RP Fraser, EDG, Univ British Columbia, Liu Inst Global Issues, 6476 NW Marine Dr, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z2, Canada. AB Human society affects environmental change but is also vulnerable to these changes. This relation has generated a number of theories that either focus on how we affect the environment or how the environment affects us. Few theories explicitly focus on the interaction. This paper will establish the range of data required to give an assessment of how likely an ecosystem is to change (which we label environmental sensitivity) and the ability of communities to adapt (social resilience). These findings allow us to generate a new method for assessing the reflexive relation between society and the environment. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. CR 2002, GENUINE PROGR INDICA *AFR RIGHTS, 1994, RWAND DEATH DESP DEF *GLOB LEAD TOM ENV, 2002, ENV SUST IND WORLD E *INT PAN CLIM CHAN, 2001, CLIM CHANG 2001 6 C *INT PAN CLIM CHAN, 2001, WG 1 CLIM CHANG 2001 ADGER WN, 1999, WORLD DEV, V27, P249 ALCAMO J, 1992, PROJECT SECURITY DIA ALCAMO J, 1999, NATO ADV RES WORKSH BARNETT J, 2001, 9 TYND CTR CLIM CHAN BARYAM Y, 1992, DYNAMICS COMPLEX SYS BERKES F, 1998, LINKING SOCIAL ECOLO, V1, P1 BOGGS C, 2001, THEOR SOC, V30, P281 BOSERUP E, 1981, POPULATION TECHNOLOG CARPENTER SR, 2001, ECOSYSTEMS, V4, P765 CASH DW, 2000, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V10, P109 CHISHOLM A, 1982, FOOD SECURITY THEORY DALBY S, 1999, CONTESTED GROUNDS SE DALY H, 1989, COMMON GOOD REDIRECT DEUDNEY D, 1999, CONTESTED GROUNDS SE GASANA J, 2002, IUCN COMM ENV EC SOC, P27 GEERTZ C, 1973, INTERPRETATION CULTU GLEICK J, 1987, CHAOS MAKING NEW SCI GRIFFEN DW, 2001, GLOBAL CHANGE HUMAN, V2, P20 GRUMBINE RE, 1994, CONSERV BIOL, V8, P27 GRUMBINE RE, 1997, CONSERV BIOL, V11, P41 HADDAD L, 1997, INTRAHOUSEHOLD RESOU HOLLING CS, 1986, SUSTAINABLE DEV BIOS, V1, P1 HOLLING CS, 2001, ECOSYSTEMS, V4, P390 HOMERDIXON T, 1995, STRATEGIES STUDYING HOMERDIXON T, 1999, ENV SCARCITY VIOLENC HOMERDIXON T, 2000, INGENUITY GAP KASPERSON JX, 1995, REGIONS RISK, V1, P1 KASPERSON JX, 2001, GLOBAL ENV RISK KASPERSON RE, 2001, GLOBAL ENV RISK, P1 KAUFFMAN S, 1995, HOME UNIVERSE SEARCH KEOPMAN J, 1997, WOMEN GENDER DEV REA LAMBIN EF, 2001, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V11, P261 LEMARCHAND R, 1995, J OPINION, V23, P8 LEMARCHAND R, 2000, TRANSITION, V9, P114 LOH J, 2000, LIVING PLANET REPORT MACKAY D, 1991, MULTIMEDIA ENV MODEL MALTHUS T, 1976, ESSAY POPULATION MEADOWS DH, 1974, LIMITS GROWTH REPORT MUSCARA L, 2000, GEOJOURNAL, V52, P285 NEWBURY D, 1998, AFRICAN STUDIES REV, V41, P73 NOWAK R, 2002, AFRICAN DROUGHTS TRI OFF C, 2001, LION FOX EAGLE STORY OHLSSON L, 2000, LIVELIHOOD CONFLICTS, P1 PATTERSON J, 1995, NATURE, V373, P185 PESTEL E, 1989, LIMITS GROWTH REPORT PRESCOTTALLEN R, 2001, WELLBEING NATIONS PUTNAM RD, 2000, BOWLING ALONE COLLAP ROOTS B, 1999, SPECIAL PLACES CHANG ROSENZWEIG C, 2001, GLOBAL CHANGE HUMAN, V2, P90 SEN AK, 1981, POVERTY FAMINES ESSA, V1, P1 SEN AK, 1988, SCI ETHICS FOOD FOOD SIMON J, 1981, ULTIMATE RESOURCE SMITH JB, 1997, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V7, P251 SMITHERS J, 1997, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V7, P129 TAYLOR PJ, 1992, GEOFORUM, V23, P405 WATTS MJ, 1993, PROG HUM GEOG, V17, P43 YOHE GW, 2002, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V12, P25 NR 62 TC 0 J9 GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANGE BP 137 EP 144 PY 2003 PD JUL VL 13 IS 2 GA 709QG UT ISI:000184635400006 ER PT J AU Fish, MR Cote, IM Gill, JA Jones, AP Renshoff, S Watkinson, AR TI Predicting the impact of sea-level rise on Caribbean sea turtle nesting habitat SO CONSERVATION BIOLOGY LA English DT Article C1 Univ E Anglia, Sch Biol Sci, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. Univ E Anglia, Sch Environm Sci, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. Univ E Anglia, Tyndall Ctr Climate Change Res, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. Sea Turtle Club Bonaire, Bonaire, Neth Antilles. RP Cote, IM, Univ E Anglia, Sch Biol Sci, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. AB The projected rise in sea level is likely to increase the vulnerability of coastal zones in the Caribbean, which are already under pressure from a combination of anthropogenic activities and natural processes. One of the major effects will be a loss of beach habitat, which provides nesting sites for endangered sea turtles. To assess the potential impacts of sea-level rise on sea turtle nesting habitat, we used beach profile measurements of turtle nesting beaches on Bonaire, Netherlands Antilles, to develop elevation models of individual beaches in a geographic information system. These models were then used to quantify areas of beach vulnerable to three different scenarios of a rise in sea level. Physical characteristics of the beaches were also recorded and related to beach vulnerability, flooding, and nesting frequency. Beaches varied in physical characteristics and therefore in their vulnerability to flooding. Up to 32% of the total current beach area could be lost with a 0.5-m rise in sea level, with lower, narrower beaches being the most vulnerable. Vulnerability varied with land use adjacent to the beach. These predictions about loss of nesting habitat have important implications for turtle populations in the region. CR MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 *IPCC, 2001, CLIM CHANG 2001 SCI *IUCN, 2003, 2003 IUCN RED LIST T BOUCHARD S, 1998, J COASTAL RES, V14, P1343 BRUUN P, 1962, J WATERWAYS HARBORS, V88, P117 CAMBERS G, 1998, COAST BEACH STABILIT CLARK JR, 1997, OCEAN COAST MANAGE, V37, P191 CRAIN DA, 1995, RESTOR ECOL, V3, P95 DUTTON PH, 1999, J ZOOL 3, V248, P397 ECKERT KL, 1995, BIOL CONSERVATION SE, P611 HALL MA, 2000, MAR POLLUT BULL, V41, P204 HATASE H, 2002, MAR BIOL, V141, P299 HENDRICKSON JR, 1995, BIOL CONSERVATION SE, P53 HENDRY M, 1993, CLIMATE CHANGE INTRA, P152 HERBST LH, 1995, BIOL CONSERVATION SE, P595 HORROCKS JA, 1991, MAR ECOL-PROG SER, V69, P1 HUANG JCK, 1997, OCEAN COAST MANAGE, V37, P95 KATSELIDIS K, 1998, P 18 INT SEA TURTL S, P75 KIKUKAWA A, 1999, J ZOOL 4, V249, P447 KLEIN RJT, 1999, AMBIO, V28, P182 LAHANAS PN, 1994, GENETICA, V94, P57 MAKTAV D, 2000, COAST MANAGE, V28, P123 MORTIMER JA, 1995, BIOL CONSERVATION SE, P45 MORTIMER JA, 2000, SEAS MILLENNIUM ENV, V3, P59 NICHOLLS RJ, 1998, COASTAL VULNERABILIT PANDAV B, 1997, ORYX, V31, P32 PILKEY OH, 2004, SCIENCE, V303, P1781 POTTER B, 1996, TOURISM COASTAL RESO SALMON M, 1995, J HERPETOL, V29, P560 SHABICA SV, 1995, BIOL CONSERVATION SE, P513 SYBESMA J, 1992, 11 UN ENV PROGR CAR, P63 WELLS J, 1995, CLIMATE CHANGE IMPAC, P111 WITHAM R, 1995, BIOL CONSERVATION SE, P519 WITHERINGTON BE, 1992, HERPETOLOGICA, V48, P31 NR 34 TC 3 J9 CONSERV BIOL BP 482 EP 491 PY 2005 PD APR VL 19 IS 2 GA 906MZ UT ISI:000227647600025 ER PT J AU Hennecke, WG Greve, CA Cowell, PJ Thom, BG TI GIS-based coastal behavior modeling and simulation of potential land and property loss: Implications of sea-level rise at Collaroy/Narrabeen Beach, Sydney (Australia) SO COASTAL MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article C1 Univ Tasmania, Sch Geog & Environm Studies, Hobart, Tas 7001, Australia. Australian Maritime Coll, Fac Fisheries & Marine Environm, Beauty Point, Tas, Australia. Univ Sydney, Sch Geosci, Coastal Studies Unit, Sydney, NSW 2006, Australia. RP Hennecke, WG, Univ Tasmania, Sch Geog & Environm Studies, Private Bag 252-76, Hobart, Tas 7001, Australia. AB Rising sea level potentially poses a threat to many coastal areas, thereby possibly affecting coastal environments, including human assets. Taking into account the precautionary principle demanded at the Framework Convention for Climate Change in Rio de Janeiro in 1992, coastal managers and planners are required to evaluate the possibility of both physical and economic impacts of sea-level rise. However, long-term and cost-intensive data capture is often not affordable for a first estimation of general trends. To determine physical and economic impacts on a spatial scale of less than 10 km, a rapid and low-cost method is required. A Geographic Information System (GIS), in combination with readily available data and two coastal behaviour models (the Bruun-GIS Model and the Aggradation Model) was applied to simulate shoreline recession caused by a rise in sea level. In addition, the potential impacts of a 50-year design storm were considered in conjunction with sea-level rise. The monetary vulnerability was assessed and combined with the simulated recession rates. This procedure provides a first estimate on the potential risk a locality (here Collaroy/Narrabeen Beach) may face due to the impacts of sea-level rise and/or coastal storms. Overall, the modelling outcome suggests that long-term erosion problems associated with rising sea level are less significant in comparison with those impacts associated with short-term coastal storm events for Collaroy/Narrabeen Beach. 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RP Sutherst, RW, CSIRO, Long Pocket Labs, 120 Meiers Rd, Indooroopilly, Qld 4068, Australia. AB The term 'global change' is used to encompass all of the significant drivers Of environmental change as experienced by hosts, parasites and parasite managers. The term includes changes in climate and climate variability, atmospheric composition, land use and land cover including deforestation and urbanisation. bio-geochemistry. globalisation of trade and transport, the spread of alien species, human health and technology. A subset of land use issues relates to the management of protective technologies in relation to residues in food and the environment and the emergence of resistance. Another is the question or changing biodiversity of both parasites and their associated natural enemies. and the effects on the host-parasite relationship and on parasite management. A framework for studying impacts of global change is proposed and illustrated with field data, and CLIMEX and simulation modelling of the cattle tick Boophilus microplus in Australia. Parasitology suffers from the perception that the key impacts of global change will be driven by changes at lower trophic levels. with parasitic interactions being treated as secondary effects. This is incorrect because the environment mediates host-parasite interactions as much as it affects parasites directly. Parasitologists need to strive for holistic solutions to the management of animal and human health, within a wider contest of overall management of those systems, if they are to make a meaningful contribution to global efforts aimed at coping with global change. (C) 2001 Australian Society fur Parasitology Inc. Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. 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DT Article C1 Penn State Univ, University Pk, PA 16802 USA. Indiana Univ, Bloomington, IN 47405 USA. RP Li, Q, Penn State Univ, University Pk, PA 16802 USA. AB In a relatively small but growing body of literature in political science and environmental studies, scholars debate the effect of democracy on environmental degradation. Some theorists claim that democracy reduces environmental degradation. Others argue that democracy may not reduce environmental degradation or may even harm the environment. Empirical evidence thus far has been limited and conflicting. This article seeks to address the democracy-environment debate. We focus on the effect of political regime type on human activities that directly damage the environment. Our discussion of the theoretical literature identifies different causal mechanisms through which democracy could affect environmental degradation. The empirical analysis focuses on the net effect of these competing mechanisms. We examine statistically the effect of democracy on five aspects of human-induced environmental degradation-carbon dioxide emissions, nitrogen dioxide emissions, deforestation, land degradation, and organic pollution in water. We find that democracy reduces all five types of environmental degradation. While the substantive effect of democracy is considerable, it varies in size across different types of environmental degradation. We also find nonmonotonic effects of democracy that vary across the environmental indicators. 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RP Vogel, C, Univ Witwatersrand, Sch Geog Archaeol & Environm Studies, P Bag 3, ZA-2050 Johannesburg, South Africa. NR 0 TC 0 J9 GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANGE BP 235 EP 236 PY 2006 PD AUG VL 16 IS 3 GA 073OJ UT ISI:000239752200001 ER PT J AU Ford, JD Smit, B Wandel, J MacDonald, J TI Vulnerability to climate change in Igloolik, Nunavut: what we can learn from the past and present SO POLAR RECORD LA English DT Article C1 Univ Guelph, Dept Geog, Guelph, ON N1G 2W1, Canada. Igloolik Res Ctr, Igloolik, NU X0A 0L0, Canada. RP Ford, JD, Univ Guelph, Dept Geog, Guelph, ON N1G 2W1, Canada. AB Significant and rapid climate change is predicted for Arctic regions. These changes are expected to have implications for indigenous communities. This paper argues that the starting point to understand how future climate change may affect communities is analysis of past and present experience of, and response to, climate variability and change. Using a vulnerability approach, the paper provides an historical account of changing vulnerability to climate-related risks among Inuit in Igloolik, Nunavut. The research demonstrates that Inuit in Igloolik have been highly adaptable in the face of climatic stresses. This adaptability has historically been facilitated by traditional Inuit knowledge, resource use flexibility and diversity, group mobility, and strong social networks. However, societal changes, and more recently biophysical changes, have increased the susceptibility of people to climatic risks and have undermined certain aspects of adaptive capacity. The research indicates that the implications of future climate change will be influenced by the interaction between biophysical and societal changes, will vary over time in response to forces internal and external to the community, and will be differentiated among social groups. 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AB Expansion of economic activities, urbanisation, increased resource use and population growth are continuously increasing the vulnerability of the coastal zone. This vulnerability is now further raised by the threat of climate change and accelerated sea level rise. The potentially severe impacts force policy-makers to also consider long-term planning for climate change and sea level rise. For reasons of efficiency and effectiveness this long-term planning should be integrated with existing short-term plans, thus creating an Integrated Coastal Zone Management programme. As a starting point for coastal zone management, the assessment of a country's or region's vulnerability to accelerated sea level rise is of utmost importance. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has developed a common methodology for this purpose. Studies carried out according to this Common Methodology have been compared and combined, from which general conclusions on local, regional and global vulnerability have been drawn, the latter in the form of a Global Vulnerability Assessment. In order to address the challenge of coping with climate change and accelerated sea level rise, it is essential to foresee the possible impacts, and to take precautionary action. Because of the long lead times needed for creating the required technical and institutional infrastructures, such action should be taken in the short term. Furthermore, it should be part of a broader coastal zone management and planning context. This will require a holistic view, shared by the different institutional levels that exist, along which different needs and interests should be balanced. NR 0 TC 6 J9 OCEAN COAST MANAGE BP 245 EP 268 PY 1993 VL 21 IS 1-3 GA MN360 UT ISI:A1993MN36000012 ER PT J AU Smit, B Wandel, J TI Adaptation, adaptive capacity and vulnerability SO GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS LA English DT Article C1 Univ Guelph, Dept Geog, Guelph, ON N1G 2W1, Canada. RP Smit, B, Univ Guelph, Dept Geog, Guelph, ON N1G 2W1, Canada. AB This paper reviews the concept of adaptation of human communities to global changes, especially climate change, in the context of adaptive capacity and vulnerability. It focuses on scholarship that contributes to practical implementation of adaptations at the community scale. In numerous social science fields, adaptations are considered as responses to risks associated with the interaction of environmental hazards and human vulnerability or adaptive capacity. In the climate change field, adaptation analyses have been undertaken for several distinct purposes. Impact assessments assume adaptations to estimate damages to longer term climate scenarios with and without adjustments. Evaluations of specified adaptation options aim to identify preferred measures. Vulnerability indices seek to provide relative vulnerability scores for countries, regions or communities. The main purpose of participatory vulnerability assessments is to identify adaptation strategies that are feasible and practical in communities. The distinctive features of adaptation analyses with this purpose are outlined, and common elements of this approach are described. Practical adaptation initiatives tend to focus on risks that are already problematic, climate is considered together with other environmental and social stresses, and adaptations are mostly integrated or mainstreamed into other resource management, disaster preparedness and sustainable development programs. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 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Univ Zimbabwe, Dept Agr Econ & Extens, Harare, Zimbabwe. RP Patt, A, Boston Univ, Dept Geog & Environm, Boston, MA 02215 USA. AB Improvements in the ability to model El Nino and other large-scale interannual climate variations have allowed for the development of seasonal climate forecasts, predicting rainfall and temperature anomalies for many places around the world. These forecasts have allowed developing countries to predict shortfalls in grain yields, with benefits for food security. Several countries communicate the forecasts to subsistence farmers, which could allow them to mitigate the effects of drought on their harvests by adapting their cropping decisions accordingly. However, it has not been demonstrated that subsistence farmers benefit from having access to the forecasts. Here we present evidence of subsistence farmers using the forecasts over multiple years to make different decisions and significantly improving their harvests when they do so. in a controlled study, farmers in Zimbabwe who reported adapting their farming methods to seasonal climate forecasts significantly improved their harvests over baseline amounts. Moreover, farmers who had attended a brief workshop and learned more about the forecasts were significantly more likely to use the forecasts than were farmers who learned of the forecasts through nonparticipatory channels. CR *NAT OC ATM ADM, 1999, EXP APPL CLIM FOR NO *SO AFR DEV COMM, 2003, 2002 2003 SEAS RAINF *SO AFR DEV COMM, 2004, 2003 2004 SEAS RAINF ARNDT C, 2003, COPING CLIMATE VARIA BASHER R, 2000, MULTISTAKEHOLDER REV BROAD K, 2000, SCIENCE, V289, P1693 CANE MA, 1994, NATURE, V370, P204 DILLEY M, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P63 GLANTZ M, 2000, ONCE BURNED TWICE SH GLANTZ M, 2001, CURRENTS CHANGE IMPA GOLNARAGHI M, 1995, ENVIORONMENT, V37 HANSEN JW, 2002, AGR SYST, V74, P309 JUMA C, 2005, INNOVATION APPLYING LEMOS MC, 2000, USE SEASONAL CLIMATE OBRIEN KL, 2003, COPING CLIMATE VARIA ORLOVE B, 1999, APPL SEASONAL INT CL PATT A, 2002, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V12, P185 PATT AG, 2001, RISK DECISION POLICY, V6, P105 PHILLIPS J, 2003, COPING CLIMATE VARIA, P110 PHILLIPS JG, 1998, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V90, P39 PHILLIPS JG, 2002, AGR SYST, V74, P351 PODESTA G, 2002, AGR SYST, V74, P371 RINDFUSS RR, 2004, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V101, P13976 SCOONES I, 1996, HAZARDS OPPORTUNITIE STERN P, 1999, MAKING CLIMATE FOREC THOMSON A, 1998, INFORMATION RISK DIS TURNER BL, 2003, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V100, P8074 TURNER BL, 2003, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V100, P8080 UNGANAI L, 1998, SEASONAL FORECASTS F NR 29 TC 3 J9 PROC NAT ACAD SCI USA BP 12623 EP 12628 PY 2005 PD AUG 30 VL 102 IS 35 GA 961QC UT ISI:000231675900061 ER PT J AU Cole, DC Eyles, J Gibson, BL Ross, N TI Links between humans and ecosystems: the implications of framing for health promotion strategies SO HEALTH PROMOTION INTERNATIONAL LA English DT Article C1 McMaster Inst Enviromn & Hlth, Hamilton, ON L8N 3Z5, Canada. Occupat & Environm Hlth Programme, Lakeshore Area Multiserv Project, Etobicoke, ON, Canada. STAT Canada, Ottawa, ON, Canada. RP Cole, DC, McMaster Inst Enviromn & Hlth, HSC 2C1,1200 Main St W, Hamilton, ON L8N 3Z5, Canada. AB To explore potential links between ecosystems and human health, we set out three ways of seeing or frames: environmental hazards and burden of illness; ecosystem conditions and human well-being; and environmental justice and human core values Each frame provides a basis for making connections but also poses certain challenges: expanding research methods, linking with other conditions of human well-being and clarifying value bases. We discuss actions which build on the strengths of the different frames to deal with the challenges: linking with those seeking greater ecosystem protection focusing on clean production strategies emphasizing environmental degradation as one aspect of social justice and building on concerns such as reproduction which are closer to human core values Health promotion practitioners and policy makers can flexibly use the frames in arguing for the betterment of both ecosystems and humans. 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RP Apuuli, B, Meteorol Dept, POB 7025, Kampala, Uganda. AB Many developing countries, especially in Africa, contribute only very small amounts to the world total of greenhouse gas emissions. For them, the reduction of such emissions is not a priority, and the more important issue is to find ways to reduce their vulnerability to the projected climate change which is being imposed upon them largely as a result of emissions from developed countries. This priority does not accord with the ultimate objective of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, which is to achieve stabilization of greenhouse gas emissions. This paper reports upon studies in Uganda designed to help in the development of a national adaptation strategy, and addresses the need to reconcile such a strategy with the global priority accorded to mitigation and with national economic development priorities. Some features of a national climate change adaptation strategy are identified and questions are raised about the need for an international regime to facilitate and support adaptation. CR *DEP MET, 1997, WORKSH P DEV AD STRA *INT PAN CLIM CHAN, 1998, REG IMP CLIM CHANG A *REP UG MIN AGR AN, 1994, REP INQ FAM N *REP UG MIN NAT RE, 1994, SOURC 1994 SOURC SIN *US EPA, 1994, INV US GREENH GAS EM BENIOFF R, 1997, NATL CLIMATE CHANGE MADRAA E, 1997, WORKSH REP DEV AD ST OGALLO LJ, 1988, J CLIMATOL, V8, P31 OGALLO LJ, 1988, J METEOROL SOC JPN, V66, P807 NR 9 TC 2 J9 ENVIRON MONIT ASSESS BP 145 EP 159 PY 2000 PD MAR VL 61 IS 1 GA 300UB UT ISI:000086270100012 ER PT J AU Braimoh, AK TI Random and systematic land-cover transitions in northern Ghana SO AGRICULTURE ECOSYSTEMS & ENVIRONMENT LA English DT Article C1 Univ Bonn, Ctr Dev Res, D-53113 Bonn, Germany. RP Braimoh, AK, Univ Bonn, Ctr Dev Res, Walter Flex Str 3, D-53113 Bonn, Germany. AB The objective of this paper is to detect the dominant landscape changes in a 5400 km(2) area in northern Ghana. An in-depth analysis of the conventional transition matrix was used to separate landscape transformations to random and systematic transitions. A landscape transition is random if a land-cover category gains from other categories in proportion to the availability of those other losing categories, or if a category loses to other categories in proportion to the size of those other gaining categories. Any large deviation from those proportions is refer-red to as systematic transition. The highest systematic transition involved the conversion of about 12% of landscape from grassland to cropland. Other systematic landscape transitions included degradation of closed woodland to open woodland (11% of landscape), gain in biomass from open woodland to closed woodland (8% of landscape), and the degradation of open woodland to grassland (6% of landscape). The vulnerability of grassland to transition to cropland probably reflects the ease of clearing grassland compared to other natural vegetation. Cropland systematically avoided gaining from woodland and woodland systematically avoided losing to cropland, suggesting that woodcutting for charcoal and firewood collection is the major proximate cause of decline in woodland. Most of the random landscape transitions occurred in areas affected by spontaneous occupation by migrants, peri-urban cropland expansion as a result of displacement of farmers, and the resettlement of households along the White Volta River after the eradication of water-borne diseases. It is essential to combine systematic and random landscape change analyses for improved understanding of the processes of land use change. This will help in linking patterns to processes and in designing policy interventions aimed at reducing the unfavorable effects of dramatic land change. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. CR *GHAN STAT SERV, 2002, 2000 POP HOUS CENS S ABDULAI A, 2000, ECON DEV CULT CHANGE, V48, P503 ABUDALAI S, 1996, P REG WORKSH HELD GO, P107 ALHASSAN WS, 1997, P 3 WORKSH IMPR FARM, P2 ALO C, 2004, C P JOINT M 15 ANN C, P17 ASIAMAH RD, 2002, P WORLD C SOIL SCI S, V22, P12 BARBIER EB, 2000, AGR ECON, V23, P299 BRAIMOH AK, 2004, ECOLOGY DEV SERIES, V14, P175 DERBAN LKA, 1999, SUSTAINABLE INTEGRAT, P25 KASANGA K, 2001, LAND MANAGEMENT GHAN, P34 LAMBIN EF, 1994, MODELLING DEFORESTAT LAMBIN EF, 1997, PROG PHYS GEOG, V21, P375 LAMBIN EF, 2003, ANNU REV ENV RESOUR, V28, P205 LISTORTI JA, 2001, 422 WORLD BANK MERTENS B, 2000, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V90, P467 MERTENS B, 2000, WORLD DEV, V28, P983 NAGENDRA H, 2004, AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON, V101, P111 PETIT C, 2001, INT J REMOTE SENS, V22, P3435 PONTIUS RG, 2004, AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON, V101, P251 SEINI AW, 2002, TECHNICAL PUBLICATIO, V61, P98 TARAWALI G, 2002, IMPROVING CROP LIVES TONAH S, 2002, BIENN C AFR STUD ASS, P16 TUCKER CJ, 1991, SCIENCE, V253, P299 VITOUSEK PM, 1997, SCIENCE, V277, P494 NR 24 TC 0 J9 AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON BP 254 EP 263 PY 2006 PD APR VL 113 IS 1-4 GA 018LF UT ISI:000235765100023 ER PT J AU Neke, KS Du Plessis, MA TI The threat of transformation: Quantifying the vulnerability of grasslands in South Africa SO CONSERVATION BIOLOGY LA English DT Article C1 Univ Cape Town, Ctr African Conservat Biol, Percy FitzPatrick Inst African Ornithol, ZA-7700 Rondebosch, South Africa. RP Neke, KS, Univ Witwatersrand, Sch Anim Plant & Environm Sci, P Bag 3, ZA-2050 Wits, South Africa. AB The ability to predict which areas of conservation importance are most vulnerable to transformation and to rank the relative damage that transforming land uses could cause to biodiversity are important components of an effective and realistic conservation planning process. We used the South African grassland biome as a case study to illustrate the assessment of vulnerability to land-use transformation through the construction of a "threat map." We identified the dominant transforming land uses and created suitability models based on area appropriateness for each. Land uses were scored according to their expected relative impacts on biodiversity, with a framework that included compositional, structural, and functional components. This information, once combined, resulted in a map that highlighted the areas most vulnerable to transformation in terms of the likelihood of their transformation and the impact on their biodiversity. We propose that such an analysis of the threat of transformation, in combination with species-representation approaches, will aid the integration of conservation planning theory and decision making. This approach can be applied at any scale and in any region with a robustness and accuracy dependent on data quality, resultant suitability models, and comprehension of how land uses affect an area's biodiversity. CR ALLAN DG, 1997, BIOL CONSERV, V79, P173 ASQUITH NM, 2001, CONSERV BIOL, V15, P345 BARNES KN, 1998, IMPORTANT BIRD AREAS BEISSINGER SR, 1996, CONSERV BIOL, V10, P1343 BROOKE RK, 1984, 97 COUNC IND SCI RES COLLAR NJ, 1994, CONSERVATION SERIES, V4 COWLING RM, 1994, STRELITZIA, V1, P31 COWLING RM, 1999, DIVERS DISTRIB, V5, P51 CURTIN CG, 2002, CONSERV BIOL, V16, P840 DAVIS FW, 1990, INT J GEOGR INF SYST, V4, P55 DEAN WRJ, 1994, J ARID ENVIRON, V26, P281 DICASTRI F, 2000, BIOSCIENCE, V50, P321 ELLERY WN, 1991, S AFR J SCI, V87, P499 FAIRBANKS DHK, 1995, AFFORESTATION POTENT FAIRBANKS DHK, 1996, S AFR J SCI, V92, P965 FAIRBANKS DHK, 2000, LANDSCAPE URBAN PLAN, V50, P237 FAIRBANKS DHK, 2001, BIOL CONSERV, V98, P365 FAITH DP, 1996, BIODIVERS CONSERV, V5, P431 FRANKLIN JF, 1993, ECOL APPL, V3, P202 FREEMARK K, 1995, LANDSCAPE URBAN PLAN, V31, P99 FREITAG S, 1997, BIOL CONSERV, V82, P263 GROVES CR, 2002, BIOSCIENCE, V52, P499 HARRISON JA, 1997, ATLAS SO AFRICAN BIR HEIJNIS CE, 1999, BIODIVERS CONSERV, V8, P471 LOMBARD AT, 1995, S AFR J ZOOL, V30, P145 LOW AB, 1996, VEGETATION S AFRICA LUBCHENCO J, 1995, BIOSCIENCE S, P7 MADDOCK A, 1999, BIODIVERS CONSERV, V8, P603 MADDOCK A, 2000, CONSERV BIOL, V14, P155 MARGULES CR, 1989, BIOL CONSERV, V50, P219 MARGULES CR, 2000, NATURE, V405, P243 MCCARTY JP, 2001, CONSERV BIOL, V15, P320 MCKINNEY ML, 2002, BIOSCIENCE, V52, P883 MENON S, 2001, CONSERV BIOL, V15, P501 NOSS RF, 1990, CONSERV BIOL, V4, P355 NOSS RF, 2002, CONSERV BIOL, V16, P895 OCONNOR TG, 1997, VEGETATION SO AFRICA, P215 ODELL EA, 2000, CONSERV BIOL, V15, P1143 OLSEN DM, 1998, CONSERV BIOL, V12, P502 PRESSEY RL, 1995, CONSERV BIOL, V9, P1506 PRESSEY RL, 2001, BIOL CONSERV, V100, P355 REBELO AG, 1997, VEGETATION SO AFRICA, P571 REYERS B, 2001, DIVERS DISTRIB, V7, P77 RICHARDSON DM, 1997, VEGETATION SO AFRICA, P535 RUSHWORTH I, 1997, THESIS U CAPE TOWN C RUTHERFORD MC, 1994, MEMOIRS BOT SURVEY S, V63 RYTI RT, 1992, ECOL APPL, V2, P404 SKELTON PH, 1995, S AFR J ZOOL, V30, P71 SMITH AP, 1997, CONSERV BIOL, V11, P498 SMITH JMB, 1996, NA944 AGR RES COUNC SOULE ME, 1991, SCIENCE, V253, P744 TARBOTON WR, 1997, AFRICA BIRDS BIRDING, V2, P149 TARBOTON WR, 1997, AFRICA BIRDS BIRDING, V2, P57 THOMPSON M, 1996, S AFR J SCI, V92, P34 THOMPSON MW, 2000, ENVPC97081 COUNC SCI VERSFELD DB, 1986, ECOLOGY MANAGEMENT B, P239 WHITE D, 1997, CONSERV BIOL, V11, P349 NR 57 TC 0 J9 CONSERV BIOL BP 466 EP 477 PY 2004 PD APR VL 18 IS 2 GA 808KF UT ISI:000220567300024 ER PT J AU Alexandrov, VA Hoogenboom, G TI The impact of climate variability and change on crop yield in Bulgaria SO AGRICULTURAL AND FOREST METEOROLOGY LA English DT Article C1 Natl Inst Meteorol & Hydrol, BG-1784 Sofia, Bulgaria. Univ Georgia, Dept Biol & Agr Engn, Griffin, GA 30223 USA. RP Alexandrov, VA, Natl Inst Meteorol & Hydrol, BG-1784 Sofia, Bulgaria. AB During the recent decade, the problem of climate variability and change, due to natural processes as well as factors of anthropogenetic origin, has come to the forefront, of scientific problems. The objective of this study was to investigate climate variability in Bulgaria during the 20th century and to determine the overall impact on agriculture. There was no significant change in the mean annual air temperature. In general, there was a decrease in total precipitation amount during the warm-half of the year, starting at the end of the 1970s. Statistical multiple regression models, describing the relationship between crop yield, precipitation, and air temperature were also developed. Several transient climate change scenarios, using global climate model (GCM) outputs, were created. The Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) Version 3.5 was used to assess the influence of projected climate change on grain yield of maize and winter wheat in Bulgaria. Under a current level of CO2 (330 ppm), the GCM scenarios projected a decrease in yield of winter wheat and especially maize, caused by a shorter crop growing season due to higher temperatures and a precipitation deficit. When the direct effects of CO2 were included in the study, all GCM scenarios resulted in an increase in winter wheat yield. Adaptation measures to mitigate the potential impact of climate change on maize crop production in Bulgaria included possible changes in sowing date and hybrid selection. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. CR *ANL, 1994, GUID VULN AD ASS *IPCC DDC, 1999, DAT INF SUPPL IPCC D ADAMS RM, 1998, CLIMATE RES, V11, P19 ADAMS RM, 1999, AGR GLOBAL CLIMATE C ALEXANDROV VA, 1999, P INT S MOD CROPP SY, P131 ALEXANDROV VA, 1997, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V36, P135 CARTER TR, 1994, IPCC TECHNICAL GUIDE, P52 DAVIES A, 1998, ANN APPL BIOL, V133, P135 DOWNING TE, 1996, NATO ASI SERIES, V1 EASTERLING WE, 1996, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V80, P1 EASTERLING WE, 1996, CLIMATE RES, V6, P263 ELMAAYAR M, 1997, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V85, P193 FRECKLETON RP, 1999, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V93, P39 GADGIL S, 1999, CURR SCI INDIA, V76, P557 GROTCH SL, 1991, J CLIMATE, V4, P286 HARRISON P, 1995, CLIMATE CHANGE AGR E HERSHKOVICH E, 1982, AGROCLIMATIC ATLAS B HOUGHTON J, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995 HULME M, 1999, NATURE, V397, P688 KAUFMANN RK, 1997, AM J AGR ECON, V79, P178 LAL M, 1999, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V93, P53 PEIRIS DR, 1996, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V79, P271 RITCHIE JT, 1998, UNDERSTANDING OPTION, P79 ROSENZWEIG C, 1995, CLIMATE CHANGE AGR A, V59 SLAVOV N, 1985, CROP PHYSL, V11, P65 SMITH JB, 1996, ADAPTING CLIMATE CHA SMITH JB, 1997, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V7, P251 THORNTON PK, 1994, AGRON J, V86, P860 TSUJI G, 1994, DSSAT VERSION 3, V1 TSUJI G, 1998, UNDERSTANDING OPTION WATSON RT, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, V1, P1 WOLF J, 1995, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V29, P299 NR 32 TC 6 J9 AGR FOREST METEOROL BP 315 EP 327 PY 2000 PD SEP 15 VL 104 IS 4 GA 354CF UT ISI:000089311700005 ER PT J AU DaCosta, E Turner, S TI Negotiating changing livelihoods: The sampan dwellers of Tam Giang Lagoon, Viet Nam SO GEOFORUM LA English DT Review C1 McGill Univ, Dept Geog, Montreal, PQ H3A 2K6, Canada. RP Turner, S, McGill Univ, Dept Geog, 805 Rue Sherbrooke W, Montreal, PQ H3A 2K6, Canada. AB Central Viet Nam is one of the most vulnerable area's in the country to natural disasters. In 1985 a major typhoon hit the Tam Giang Lagoon coastal area in the province of Thu'a Tien-Hue, Central Viet Nam, with severe impacts on the sampan dwellers who lived there on boats and fished for their livelihoods. Since then, the government has attempted to resettle them on land in order to decrease their vulnerability to such events. Consequently, this process has changed the livelihood options as well as the social networks of the sampan dwellers. This study of the resettlement village of Thuy Dien analyses the social networks and different forms of social capital being utilised by the resettled sampan dwellers as part of their changing livelihoods and questions whether the social capital formed will indeed lead to a long term decrease in vulnerability. It is found that while bonding and linking social capital have been newly formed, the trust required for bridging social capital formation is still missing, and this in turn is hindering the possibilities of sustainable livelihood formation. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR 2002, VIET NAM ADM ALAS *CECI VIET NAM, 2000, FIN REP LESS LEARN T *CECI VIET NAM, 2003, REL REP *CECI VIET NAM, 2003, VUL ASS *ID21 INS, 2000, FRIENDS HIGH PLAC OV *INT PAN CLIM CHAN, 2001, CLIM CHANG 2001 IMP *NDMP, 2004, BACKGR UN DEV PROGR *PEOPL COMM THU TE, 2001, THU TIEN HUE POT OPP *POL RES IN, 2003, INT C OPP CHALL DIV *SOC REP VIET NAM, 1999, CENS VIET NAM *SOC REP VIET NAM, 2002, COMPR POV RED GROWTH ADGER WN, 1999, J DEV STUD, V35, P96 ADGER WN, 2001, LIVING ENV CHANGE SO, P19 ADGER WN, 2002, AMBIO, V31, P358 ALWANG J, 2002, INT S SUST FOOD SEC ARCE A, 2003, COMMUNITY DEV J, V38, P199 BAILEY C, 1999, AREA, V31, P169 BAILEY C, 1999, AREA, V31, P182 BAXTER J, 1997, T I BRIT GEOGR, V22, P505 BAXTER J, 1999, AREA, V31, P179 BEBBINGTON A, 1999, WORLD DEV, V27, P2021 BEBBINGTON A, 2004, PROGR DEV STUDIES, V4, P343 BOURDIEU P, 1986, HDB THEORY RES SOCIO, P241 BRZESKI VJ, 2000, LESSONS LAGOON RES L, P213 BUI TT, 2000, LESSONS LAGOON RES C, P79 BUI TT, 2003, LABOUR MARKET EMPLOY BURY J, 2004, GEOGR J 1, V170, P78 CARNEY D, 1988, SUSTAINABLE RURAL LI CARPENTER JP, 2004, J ECON BEHAV ORGAN, V55, P533 CARPENTER JP, 2004, URBAN STUD, V41, P853 CHAMBERS R, 1991, 296 IDS CHAMBERS R, 1995, 347 IDS CHAMBERS R, 1997, WORLD DEV, V25, P1743 CHEN X, 2005, MODERNIZATION SOCIAL, P49 COLEMAN J, 1990, FDN SOCIAL THEORY COLEMAN JS, 1987, EC IMPERIALISM EC AP, P135 COLEMAN JS, 1988, AM J SOCIOL, V94, P95 CURRAN DJ, 1993, RES SENSITIVE TOPICS, P71 DALTON RJ, 2002, SOCIAL RELATIONS SOC DANG P, 1995, VIETNAMS RURAL TRANS, P165 DAO T, 1995, VIET NAMS RURAL TRAN, P139 DEHAAN L, 2005, DEV CHANGE, V36, P27 DEKONINCK R, 1999, DEFORESTATATION VIET DEKONINCK R, 1999, DEFORESTATION VIET N DERENZIO P, 1999, PACIFIC EC B, V14, P37 DUDWICK N, 2000, FIELDWORK DILEMMAS A, P1 DUFHUES T, 2002, INT S SUST FOOD SEC DUONG VT, 2002, LESSONS LAGOON MORE, P53 DURLAUF S, 1999, FOCUS, V20, P1 ELLIS F, 1998, J DEV STUD, V35, P1 ELLIS F, 2000, RURAL LIVELIHOODS DI ENNEBECK D, 2002, MEMOIRE MAITRISE U S FINE B, 2001, SOCIAL CAPITAL VERSU FOLEY MW, 1999, J PUBLIC POLICY, V19, P141 FUKUYAMA F, 1996, TRUST SOCIAL VIRTUES GUEST P, 1998, 1 UNDP HARRISS J, 1997, J INT DEV, V9, P919 HYDEN G, 1997, STUD COMP INT DEV, V32, P3 KERKVLIET BJT, 1995, VIETNAMS RURAL TRANS, P1 KERKVLIET BJT, 2004, HANOI LOCAL GOVT VIE, P1 KURTI L, 1999, SOCIAL ANTHR, V7, P169 LEVANMIEN P, 2000, LESSONS LAGOON RES C, P115 LONG N, 2001, DEV SOCIOLOGY ACTOR LUTTRELL C, 2001, GEOJOURNAL, V55, P529 LUTTRELL C, 2005, MODERNIZATION SOCIAL, P116 MOSER C, 1997, HOUSEHOLD RESPONSES, V2 MOSER CON, 1998, WORLD DEV, V26, P1 MUTZ G, 2005, MODERNIZATION SOCIAL NARAYAN D, 1997, WORLD BANK ENV SOCIA, V20 NGUEYN V, 2001, VIETNAMESE SOC TRANS NGUYEN XH, 2000, LESSONS LAGOON RES C, P39 NORLUND I, 2005, MODERNIZATION SOCIAL, P63 PHAP TT, 2000, INT S PROT MAN COAST PHAP TT, 2002, LESSONS LAGOON MORE, P27 PHAP TT, 2002, TAM GIANG LAGOON AQU PORTER DJ, 1995, VIET NAMS RURAL TRAN, P215 PORTES A, 1998, ANNU REV SOCIOL, V24, P1 PORTES A, 2000, J LAT AM STUD 2, V32, P529 PUTNAM R, 1993, MAKING DEMOCRACY WOR PUTNAM R, 1995, TUNING TUNING STRANG, P664 PUTNAM R, 2000, BOWLING ALONE COLLAP PUTZEL J, 1997, J INT DEV, V9, P939 RIGG J, 2006, WORLD DEV, V34, P180 RUDDLE K, 1998, OCEAN COAST MANAGE, V40, P1 SCHULLER T, 2000, SOCIAL CAPITAL CRITI, P1 SCHUURMAN FJ, 2003, THIRD WORLD Q, V24, P991 SCOONES I, 1998, 72 IDS SCOTT S, 2001, THESIS U BRIT COLUMB SEN AK, 1987, STANDARD LIVING SEN AK, 1997, WORLD DEV, V25, P1959 SEN AK, 1984, RESOURCES VALUES DEV, P307 SUISIANIEN M, 2000, ISTR 4 INT C TRIN CO THAYER CA, 1995, VIETNAMS RURAL TRANS, P39 THURSTON AF, 1983, SOCIAL SCI FIELDWORK TRUON V, 2000, LESSONS LAGOON RES C, P7 TRUON V, 2002, LESSONS LAGOON MORE, P39 TURNER S, 2003, INDONESIAS SMALL ENT TURNER S, 2005, SOCIETY, V42, P10 VO TH, 2000, LESSONS LAGOON RES C, P55 VO TH, 2002, LESSONS LAGOON MORE, P221 VO TH, 2003, LESSONS LAGOON TIAM VO TH, 2003, VIET NAM COUNTRY REP WARREN MR, 2001, SOCIAL CAPITAL POOR, P1 WERNER J, 2002, GENDER HOUSEHOLD STA, P29 WINKELS A, 2002, INT S SUST FOOD SEC WINKELS A, 2005, MODERNIZATION SOCIAL, P94 WOOLCOCK M, 1998, THEOR SOC, V27, P151 WOOLCOCK M, 2000, WORLD BANK RES OBSER, V15, P225 NR 108 TC 0 J9 GEOFORUM BP 190 EP 206 PY 2007 PD JAN VL 38 IS 1 GA 131CM UT ISI:000243845600016 ER PT J AU Ejigu, M TI Land, forests, insecurity and conflict SO INTERNATIONAL FORESTRY REVIEW LA English DT Article C1 Partnership African Environm Sustainabil, Kampala, Uganda. RP Ejigu, M, Partnership African Environm Sustainabil, 5th Floor,Pan Africa House,POB 10273,Plot 3,Kiman, Kampala, Uganda. AB In natural resource-dependent economies such as those in Africa, land, forests, and water are the primary environmental goods and sources of livelihoods. This paper focuses on land and forests, and examines how, where, and under what conditions the absolute and relative lack of access to and/or misuse of these resources can trigger, cause, and amplify conflict. The paper underlines the importance of increased investment in sustainable land and forest management and the value of integrating environmental security into the national development policy agenda as key strategies that will facilitate progress towards the attainment of enduring peace and sustainable development. CR 2005, DAILY MONITOR 1125 *FAO, 2005, GLOB FOR RES ASS *FESS, IN PRESS TARN PEARL *USAID, FOR CONFL TOOLK INT *WORLD BANK, 2002, REV FOR STRAT WORLD BACHLER G, 1996, ENV DEGRADATION CAUS, V2, P461 DABELKO GD, 1999, ENV SECURITY ISSUES DIMOND J, 2005, COLLAPSE SOC CHOOSE EJIGU M, 2004, ENV SECURITY CONFLIC EJIGU M, 2005, DEFORESTATION ENV IN GLEICK P, 1991, ENV SECURITY CLEAR C, P17 HOMERDIXON T, 1996, J ENV DEV, P5 HOMERDIXON TF, 1994, INT SECURITY, V19, P1 HUTCHISON RA, 1991, FIGHTING SURVIVAL IN KAHL C, 2000, POPULATION GROWTH EN LAKE D, 1996, 20 IGCC U CAL MCNEELY J, 1998, 1 INT C ADDR ENV CON MESFIN W, 1991, SUFFERING GODS ENV V MUKARO L, 2003, ENV INSECURITY POVER MYERS N, 1993, ULTIMATE SECURITY EN PERCIVAL V, 1995, ENV SCARCITY VIOLENT RENNER M, 2002, ANATOMY RESOURCE WAR TEKLU T, 2003, ENV INSECURITY RURAL THOMSON J, 2003, CONFLICT TIMBER DIME, V1 TIMBERLAKE L, 1988, AFRICA CRISIS CAUSES, P162 NR 25 TC 0 J9 INT FOR REV BP 72 EP 77 PY 2006 PD MAR VL 8 IS 1 GA 050MA UT ISI:000238090500009 ER PT J AU Kropp, JP Block, A Reusswig, F Zickfeld, K Schellnhuber, HJ TI Semiquantitative assessment of regional climate vulnerability: The North-Rhine Westphalia Study SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res, D-14412 Potsdam, Germany. Univ E Anglia, Tyndall Ctr Climate Change Res, Norwich NR4 TTJ, Norfolk, England. RP Kropp, JP, Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res, POB 60 12 03, D-14412 Potsdam, Germany. AB Climate change will bring about a sea change in environmental conditions worldwide during the 21th century. In particular, most of the extreme events and natural disaster regimes prevailing today will be transformed, thus exposing innumerable natural and socio-economic systems to novel risks that will be difficult to cope with. This crucial component of vulnerability to anthropogenic interference with the climate system is analyzed using powerful pattern recognition methods from statistical physics. The analysis is of intermediate character, with respect to spatial scale and complexity level respectively, and therefore allows a rapid regional assessment for any area of interest. The approach is based on a comprehensive inventory of all those ecological and socioeconomic assets in a region that are significantly sensitive to extreme weather (and climate) events. Advanced cluster analysis techniques are then employed to derive from the inventory a set of thematic maps that succinctly summarize - and visualize - the differential vulnerabilities characteristic of the area in question. This information can prepare decision makers and the general public for the climate change hazards to be faced and facilitates a precautionary climate change risk management. The semiquantitative methodology described and applied here can be easily extended to other aspects of climate change assessment. 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AB This article divides the study of global environmental security into four interrelated analytic categories: ecosystem health and threats from human activity; decision-making patterns (risk and interest calculations); the normative context (conceptions of related rights); and the effects of/on the international system on/of the above (especially, challenges to and from the transforming but stubborn institution of state sovereignty). The article uses this framework to discuss what is certainly one of the most important issues of our time: energy resources and planning in an age when sustainable development is imperative. Although the international system limits our ability to deal with this issue in a long-term fashion, attempts to do so may also transform that system itself. 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SO CANADIAN PUBLIC POLICY-ANALYSE DE POLITIQUES LA English DT Article C1 Univ Western Ontario, Dept Polit Sci, London, ON N6A 5C2, Canada. Univ Western Ontario, Dept Geog, London, ON N6A 5C2, Canada. Univ Western Ontario, Inst Catastroph Loss Reduct, London, ON N6A 5C2, Canada. RP Henstra, D, Univ Western Ontario, Dept Polit Sci, London, ON N6A 5C2, Canada. AB In light of rising disaster losses in recent years and predictions of a more hazardous natural environment in the future, many countries around the world are revising their policies for disaster management to incorporate a stronger emphasis on disaster mitigation and risk reduction. In this paper, we argue that Canada has not sufficiently integrated mitigation into disaster management and we discuss several barriers that impede progress in this area. 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RP Barnett, J, Univ Melbourne, Sch Anthropol Geog & Environm Studies, Melbourne, Vic 3010, Australia. AB Despite it being the most studied and arguably most profound of global environmental change problems, there is relatively little research that explores climate change as a security issue. This paper systematically explores the range of possible connections between climate change and security, including national security considerations, human security concerns, military roles, and a discussion of the widely held assumption that climate change may trigger violent conflict. The paper explains the ways in which climate change is a security issue. It includes in its discussion issues to do with both mitigation and adaptation of climate change. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science. Ltd. All rights reserved. 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RP Allen, KM, Social Res Associates, 12 Princess Rd W, Leicester LE1 6TP, Leics, England. AB Community-based disaster preparedness (CBDP) approaches are increasingly important elements of vulnerability reduction and disaster management strategies. They are associated with a policy trend that values the knowledge and capacities of local people and builds on local resources, including social capital. CBDP may be instrumental not only in formulating local coping and adaptation strategies, but also in situating them within wider development planning and debates. In theory, local people can be mobilised to resist unsustainable (vulnerability increasing) forms of development or livelihood practices and to raise local concerns more effectively with political representatives. This paper focuses on the potential of CBDP initiatives to alleviate vulnerability in the context of climate change, and their limitations. It presents evidence from the Philippines that, in the limited forms in which they are currently employed, CBDP initiatives have the potential both to empower and disempower, and warns against treating CBDP as a panacea to disaster management problems. 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US Forest Serv, USDA, Int Inst Trop Forestry, Rio Piedras, PR 00928 USA. Utah State Univ, Dept Biol, Logan, UT 84322 USA. Inst Ecosyst Studies, Millbrook, NY 12545 USA. RP Dale, VH, Oak Ridge Natl Lab, Div Environm Sci, POB 2008, Oak Ridge, TN 37831 USA. AB Large, infrequent disturbances (LIDs) can have significant impacts yet seldom are included in management plans. Although this neglect may stem from relative unfamiliarity with a kind of event that rarely occurs in the experience or jurisdiction of individual managers, it may also reflect the assumption that LIDs are so large and powerful as to be beyond the ability of managers to affect. However, some LIDs can be affected by management, and for many of those that cannot be affected, the resilience or recovery of the system disrupted by the disturbance can be influenced to meet management goals. Such results can be achieved through advanced planning that allows for LIDs, whether caused by natural events, human activities, or a combination of the two. Management plans for LIDs may adopt a variety of goals, depending on the nature of the system and the nature of the anticipated disturbance regime. Managers can choose to influence (a) the system prior to the disturbance, (b) the disturbance itself, (c) the system after the disturbance, or (d) the recovery process. Prior to the disturbance, the system can be managed in ways that alter its vulnerability or change how it will respond to a disturbance. The disturbance can be managed through no action, preventive measures, or manipulations that can affect the intensity or frequency of the disturbance. Recovery efforts can focus on either managing the state of the system immediately after the disturbance or managing the ongoing process of recovery. This review of the management implications of LIDs suggests that management actions should be tailored to particular disturbance characteristics and management goals. Management actions should foster survival of residuals and spatial heterogeneity that promote the desired recovery pattern and process. Most importantly, however, management plans need to recognize LIDs and include the potential for such disturbances to occur. 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Univ Catholique Louvain, Dept Geog, B-1348 Louvain, Belgium. Wageningen Univ, Dept Environm Sci, Environm Sci Anal Grp, NL-6700 AA Wageningen, Netherlands. Harvard Univ, Sci Environm & Dev Grp, Ctr Int Dev, Kennedy Sch Govt, Cambridge, MA 02138 USA. RP Metzger, MJ, Wageningen Univ, Dept Plant Sci, Plant Prod Syst Grp, POB 430, NL-6700 AK Wageningen, Netherlands. AB Terrestrial ecosystems provide a number of vital services for people and society, such as biodiversity, food. fibre, water resources, carbon sequestration, and recreation. The future capability of ecosystems to provide these services is determined by changes in socio-economic characteristics, land use, biodiversity, atmospheric composition and climate. Most published impact assessments do not address the vulnerability of the human-environment system under such environmental change. They cannot answer important multidisciplinary policy relevant questions Such as: which are the main regions or sectors that are vulnerable to global change? How do the vulnerabilities of two regions compare? Which scenario is the least, or most, harmful for a given region or sector? The ATEAM project (Advanced Terrestrial Ecosystem Analysis and Modelling) uses a new approach to ecosystem assessment by integrating the potential impacts in a vulnerability assessment, which can help answer multidisciplinary questions, such as those listed above. This paper presents the vulnerability assessment of the ATEAM land use scenarios. The 14 land use types, discussed in detail by Rounsevell et al. (this volume), can be related to a range of ecosystem services. For instance, forest area is associated with wood production and designated land with outdoor recreation. Directly applying the vulnerability methodology to the land use change scenarios helps in understanding land use change impacts across the European environment. Scatter plots summarising impacts per principal European Environmental Zone (EnZ) help in interpreting how the impacts of the scenarios differ between ecosystem services and the European environments. While there is considerable heterogeneity in both the potential impacts of global changes, and the adaptive capacity to cope with these impacts, this assessment shows that southern Europe in particular will be vulnerable to land use change. Projected economic growth increases adaptive capacity, but is also associated with the most negative potential impacts. The potential impacts of more environmentally oriented developments are smaller, indicating an important role for both policy and society in determining eventual residual impacts. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. CR *IM TEAM, 2001, IM 2 2 IMPL SRES SCE *IPCC, 2001, CLIM CHANG 2001 MIT *IPCC, 2001, CLIM CHANG 2001 SCI MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 *MILL EC ASS, 2003, EC HUM WELLB FRAM AS *UNEP, 2002, GEO 3 GLOB ENV OUTL *WORLD CONS MON CT, 1992, GLOB BIOD STAT EARTH ALCAMO J, 2002, ENVIRON SCI POLICY, V5, P255 BUNCE RGH, 1987, BIOMASS ENERGY IND, P1272 CORNELISSEN AMG, 2001, AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON, V86, P173 DAILY GC, 1997, NATURES SERV EKBOIR J, 2002, CIMMYT 2000 2001 WOR EWERT F, 2005, AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON, V107, P101 GALLOWAY JN, 2001, WATER AIR SOIL POL 1, V130, P17 GEIST HJ, 2002, BIOSCIENCE, V52, P143 GROTHMANN T, IN PRESS PEOPLE RISK KANKAANPAA S, 2004, CONSTRUCTION EUROPEA KASPERSON JX, 2001, SEI RISK VULNERABILI KATES RW, 2001, SCIENCE, V292, P641 KLIJN JA, 2005, 1196 EURURALIS LAMBIN EF, 2001, HUMAN POLICY DIMENSI, V11, P261 LUERS AL, 2003, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V13, P255 METZGER MJ, 2004, ATEAM VULNERABILITY METZGER MJ, 2005, GLOBAL ECOL BIOGEOGR, V14, P549 METZGER MJ, 2005, INT J APPL EARTH OBS, V7, P253 METZGER MJ, 2005, THESIS WAGENINGEN U MITCHELL TD, 2004, 55 U E ANGL TYND CTR NAKICENOVIC N, 2000, IPCC SPECIAL REPORT REGINSTER I, IN PRESS SCENARIOS F REID WV, 2005, MILLENNIUM ECOSYSTEM ROUNSEVELL MDA, 2005, AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON, V107, P117 SCHROTER D, 2003, 5 OP M HUM DIM GLOB SCHROTER D, 2005, SCIENCE, V310, P1333 SCHROTER D, 2005, STRATEGIES GLOBAL CH, V10, P573 SMITH JB, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, P913 STEFFEN W, 2001, IGBP, V4, P2 THOMAS CD, 2004, NATURE, V427, P145 THUILLER W, 2004, J BIOGEOGR, V31, P353 TURNER BL, 1997, EARTH SCI FRONTIERS, V4, P26 TURNER BL, 2003, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V100, P8074 VANDERMEIJDEN R, 1996, GORTERIA, V22, P1 VANITTERSUM MK, 2003, EUR J AGRON, V18, P201 WATSON RT, 2000, LAND USE LAND USE CH YOHE GW, 2002, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V12, P25 NR 44 TC 3 J9 AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON BP 69 EP 85 PY 2006 PD MAY VL 114 IS 1 GA 024XX UT ISI:000236231000006 ER PT J AU Chowdhury, RR Turner, BL TI Reconciling agency and structure in empirical analysis: Smallholder land use in the southern Yucatan, Mexico SO ANNALS OF THE ASSOCIATION OF AMERICAN GEOGRAPHERS LA English DT Review C1 Univ Miami, Dept Geog & Reg Studies, Coral Gables, FL 33124 USA. Clark Univ, Grad Sch Geog, Worcester, MA 01610 USA. RP Chowdhury, RR, Univ Miami, Dept Geog & Reg Studies, 1000 Mem Dr, Coral Gables, FL 33124 USA. AB The agent-structure binary in human-environment relations has historically ascribed primacy to either decision-making agents or political-economic structures as the anthropogenic force driving landscape change. This binary has, in part, separated cultural and political ecology, despite important research weaving structure and agency in each of these and related subfields. The implications of approaching explanations of land use using this binary are illustrated systematically, drawing from empirical research on smallholder land use in the southern Yucatan of Mexico, a development frontier and environmental conservation region. The land-use strategies of mixed subsistence-market smallholder cultivators are explored through agent, structure, and integrated agent-structure models addressing parcel allocations to a suite of regionally evolving and/or extant land uses. The models are compared to illustrate what understanding is missed by a focus on either approach alone and what is gained by joining them. Results suggest that focusing on structure or agency alone may lead to inadequate and even erroneous characterizations of the variables that are of interest to the chosen approach. A sectorally disaggregated approach can identify suites of factors that drive particular land uses. 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Univ Louvain, Dept Geog, LUCC Int Project Off, B-1348 Louvain, Belgium. RP Lambin, EF, Univ Louvain, Dept Geog, Pl Louis Pasteur 3, B-1348 Louvain, Belgium. AB We highlight the complexity of land-use/cover change and propose a framework for a more general understanding of the issue, with emphasis on tropical regions. The review summarizes recent estimates on changes in cropland, agricultural intensification, tropical deforestation, pasture expansion, and urbanization and identifies the still unmeasured land-cover changes. Climate-driven land-cover modifications interact with land-use changes. Land-use change is driven by synergetic factor combinations of resource scarcity leading to an increase in the pressure of production on resources, changing opportunities created by markets, outside policy intervention, loss of adaptive capacity, and changes in social organization and attitudes. The changes in ecosystem goods and services that result from land-use change feed back on the drivers of land-use change. A restricted set of dominant pathways of land-use change is identified. Land-use change can be understood using the concepts of complex adaptive systems and transitions. Integrated, place-based research on land-use/land-cover change requires a combination of the agent-based systems and narrative perspectives of understanding. We argue in this paper that a systematic analysis of local-scale land-use change studies, conducted over a range of timescales, helps to uncover general principles that provide an explanation and prediction of new land-use changes. 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1997, SCIENCE, V277, P494 WALKER R, 1996, ECOL ECON, V18, P67 WALKER R, 2000, WORLD DEV, V28, P683 WALKER R, 2002, INT REGIONAL SCI REV, V25, P169 WALSH SJ, 1999, PHOTOGRAMM ENG REM S, V65, P97 WALSH SJ, 2002, CHARACTERIZING MODEL, P187 WALSHMEYER S, 2002, LINKING PEOPLE PLACE WARRENRHODES K, 2001, AMBIO, V30, P429 WEINHOLD D, 1999, ECOL ECON, V31, P63 WIGGINS S, 1995, J INT DEV, V7, P807 WOODWELL GM, 1983, SCIENCE, V222, P1081 WUNDER S, 2000, ENC DEFORESTATION EX XU JC, 1999, MT RES DEV, V19, P123 YOUNG OR, 2002, I DIMENSIONS ENV CHA YOUNG PC, 1999, PROGR ENV SCI, V1, P3 ZENG N, 1999, SCIENCE, V286, P1537 NR 186 TC 1 J9 ANNU REV ENVIRON RESOUR BP 205 EP 241 PY 2003 VL 28 GA 801NN UT ISI:000220102700007 ER PT J AU Kobak, KI Turchinovich, IY Kondrasheva, NY Schulze, ED Schulze, W Koch, H Vygodskaya, NN TI Vulnerability and adaptation of the larch forest in eastern Siberia to climate change SO WATER AIR AND SOIL POLLUTION LA English DT Article C1 UNIV BAYREUTH,BAYREUTH,GERMANY. AN SEVERTZOV INST ANIM EVOLUTIONARY MORPHOL & ECO,MOSCOW,RUSSIA. RP Kobak, KI, STATE HYDROL INST,ST PETERSBURG,RUSSIA. AB The most widely distributed coniferous forests in the world are the larch forests. In the Russian Federation they occupy 27.6 x 10(6) ha. In Siberia, the larch species Larix russica generally grows west of the Yenissei River, and Larix gmelinii grows to the east. The morphological and physiological features oft. gmelinii make it possible for this species to grow in the far north of eastern Siberia, where climate conditions are more severe: The range of air temperature fluctuations in this region is more than 100 degrees C, from 38 degrees C down to 64 degrees C below zero. One of the major adaptions to unfavorable soil conditions is provided by a specific feature of root formation in L. gmelinii, in which the apex central root dies off at the permafrost border and a root system develops in upper soil layer. The major larch vulnerability factors are natural and anthropogenic fires and damage caused by insects, which become more frequent with hot and dry weather. The consequences of projected global warming could be both positive and negative for larch forests. Permafrost melting may result in improved soil nutrition in the areas the larch forests occupy, yet the frequency of forest fires and damage by pathogens are likely to increase. Global warming is expected to cause forest dieback and increased areas of steppe in the southern regions of eastern Siberia. CR *IPCC, 1995, IPCC 2 SCI ASS CLIM *SCI I FOR RES, 1990, FOR FUND USSR *SCI I FOR RES, 1995, FOR FUND RUSS *WORLD DAT CTR, 1976, BAS DAT CLIM USSR BUDYKO M, 1990, PROSPECTS FUTURE CLI BUDYKO MI, 1971, CLIMATE LIFE BUDYKO MI, 1987, ANTHROPOGENIC CLIMAT DIXON RK, 1994, SCIENCE, V263, P185 DYLIS NV, 1961, LARCH E SIBERIA FAR HOUGHTON, 1990, CLIMATE CHANGE IPCC KOBAK KI, 1992, ECOLOGY, V3, P9 MONSERUD RA, 1993, CLIM RES, V3, P143 POZDNYAKOV LK, 1975, RESURSY BIOSFERY, P43 POZDNYAKOV LK, 1983, FOREST SCI, V6, P28 SCHULZE ED, 1995, CAN J FOREST RES, V25, P943 SHVIDENKO A, 1994, AMBIO, V23, P396 UTKIN AI, 1965, FORESTS CENTRAL YAKU ZUBENOK LL, 1976, EVAPORATION CONTINEN NR 18 TC 6 J9 WATER AIR SOIL POLLUT BP 119 EP 127 PY 1996 PD SEP VL 92 IS 1-2 GA VM538 UT ISI:A1996VM53800013 ER PT J AU Pretty, JN Noble, AD Bossio, D Dixon, J Hine, RE de Vries, FWTP Morison, JIL TI Resource-conserving agriculture increases yields in developing countries SO ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY LA English DT Article C1 Univ Essex, Dept Biol Sci, Colchester CO4 3SQ, Essex, England. Univ Essex, Ctr Environm & Soc, Colchester CO4 3SQ, Essex, England. Kasetsart Univ, Bangkok 10903, Thailand. CIMMYT, Impact Tergeting & Assessment Program, Mexico City 06600, DF, Mexico. Int Water Management Inst, Colombo, Sri Lanka. Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Atmospher Phys, Int Project Off Monsoon Asia Integrated Reg Study, Beijing, Peoples R China. RP Pretty, JN, Univ Essex, Dept Biol Sci, Wivenhoe Pk, Colchester CO4 3SQ, Essex, England. AB Despite great recent progress, hunger and poverty remain widespread and agriculturally driven environmental damage is widely prevalent. The idea of agricultural sustainability centers on the need to develop technologies and practices that do not have adverse effects on environmental goods and services, and that lead to improvements in food productivity. Here we show the extent to which 286 recent interventions in 57 poor countries covering 37 M ha (3% of the cultivated area in developing countries) have increased productivity on 12.6 M farms while improving the supply of critical environmental services. The average crop yield increase was 79% (geometric mean 64%). All crops showed water use efficiency gains, with the highest improvement in rainfed crops. Potential carbon sequestered amounted to an average of 0.35 t C ha(-1) y(-1). If a quarter of the total area under these farming systems adopted sustainability enhancing practices, we estimate global sequestration could be 0.1 Gt C y(-1). Of projects with pesticide data, 77% resulted in a decline in pesticide use by 71% while yields grew by 42%. Although it is uncertain whether these approaches can meet future food needs, there are grounds for cautious optimism, particularly as poor farm households benefit more from their adoption. CR *FAO, 2005, FAOSTAT DAT *INT WAT MAN I, 2000, WORLD WAT SCEN AN MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 *NAT RES COUNC, 2000, COMM JOURN *NUFF COUNC BIOETH, 2004, US GEN MOD CROPS DEV AGARWAL A, 1997, DYING WISDOM CONWAY GR, 1997, DOUBLY GREEN REVOLUT COSTANZA R, 1997, NATURE, V387, P253 CRISSMAN CC, 1998, EC ENV HLTH TRADEOFF DASGUPTA P, 1998, FEEDING WORLD POPULA DEFRITAS H, 1999, FERTILE GROUND DELGADO C, 1999, LIVESTOCK 2020 NEXT DIXON J, 2001, FARMING SYSTEMS POVE EVELEENS K, 2004, HIST IPM ASIA FEDER G, 2004, REV AGR ECON, V26, P45 KENMORE PE, 1984, J PLANT PROTECTION T, V1, P1 KHAN ZR, 1997, NATURE, V388, P631 KIJNE JW, 2003, WATER PRODUCTIVITY A KNUTSON RD, 1990, ECONOMIC IMPACTS RED LAL R, 2004, SCIENCE, V304, P393 MCNEELY JA, 2003, ECOAGRICULTURE NORSE D, 2001, ENV COSTS RICE PRODU PETERSEN P, 2000, ENV DEV SUSTAINABILI, V1, P235 PINGALI PL, 1995, IMPACT PESTICIDES FA PRETTY J, 2002, AGR CULTURE RECONNEC PRETTY J, 2003, SCIENCE, V302, P1912 PRETTY JN, 2000, AGR SYST, V65, P113 PRETTY JN, 2002, PHILOS T ROY SOC A, V360, P1741 PRETTY JN, 2003, AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON, V95, P217 ROCKSTROM J, 2000, CRIT REV PLANT SCI, V19, P319 SCHEER SJ, 1996, LAND DEGRADATION DEV SCHMITZ PM, 2001, WORKSH EC PEST RISK SMIL V, 2000, FEEDING WORLD SWINGLAND I, 2003, CARBON BIODIVERSITY TEGTMEIER E, 2004, INT J AGR SUSTAINABI, V2, P1 TILMAN D, 2002, NATURE, V418, P671 TREWAVAS A, 2002, NATURE, V418, P668 UPHOFF N, 2002, AGROECOLOGICAL INNOV WAIBEL H, 1999, AGRARWIRTSCHAFT, V48, P219 WATSON RT, 2000, IPCC SPECIAL REPORT NR 40 TC 2 J9 ENVIRON SCI TECHNOL BP 1114 EP 1119 PY 2006 PD FEB 15 VL 40 IS 4 GA 014KK UT ISI:000235478700008 ER PT J AU Lambin, EF Ehrlich, D TI The identification of tropical deforestation fronts at broad spatial scales SO INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF REMOTE SENSING LA English DT Article C1 COMMISS EUROPEAN COMMUNITIES,JOINT RES CTR,INST REMOTE SENSING APPLICAT,I-21020 ISPRA,VARESE,ITALY. RP Lambin, EF, UNIV CATHOLIQUE LOUVAIN,DEPT GEOG,PL LOUIS PASTEUR 3,B-1348 LOUVAIN,BELGIUM. AB Land cover changes are measured at increasingly broader spatial scales. Yet understanding and modelling change processes with a satisfactory accuracy require fine scale observations. The objective of this study is to design and test a methodology to detect tropical deforestation 'hot spots' at broad spatial scales. This methodology is designed to allow concentration of the data collection and modelling of change processes only on the areas characterized by a high rate of change. The procedure is based on a hierarchical set of decision rules with selection criteria being first measured on an exhaustive basis at a global scale and then only for the areas retained in the first sorting, with increasingly selective constraints. The first set of criteria, i.e., proportions in key land cover, landscape fragmentation, and fire activities, were derived from subcontinental scale remote sensing data. Socio-economic variables were also measured at that scale. These different variables were combined over West Africa and the northern boundary of the Central African evergreen forest to identify potential tropical deforestation fronts. Different models were used to generate maps of deforestation hot spots. These were validated with data from the literature. 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Mississippi State Univ, Inst Clean Energy Technol, Starkville, MS 39762 USA. Mississippi State Univ, Dept Phys & Astron, Starkville, MS 39762 USA. RP Han, FXX, Mississippi State Univ, Dept Plant & Soil Sci, Starkville, MS 39762 USA. AB Atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) has increased from a preindustrial concentration of about 280 ppm to about 367 ppm at present. The increase has closely followed the increase in CO2 emissions from the use of fossil fuels. Global warming caused by increasing amounts of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere is the major environmental challenge for the 21st century. Reducing worldwide emissions of CO2 requires multiple mitigation pathways, including reductions in energy consumption, more efficient use of available energy, the application of renewable energy sources, and sequestration. Sequestration is a major tool for managing carbon emissions. In a majority of cases CO2 is viewed as waste to be disposed; however, with advanced technology, carbon sequestration can become a value-added proposition. There are a number of potential opportunities that render sequestration economically viable. In this study, we review these most economically promising opportunities and pathways of carbon sequestration, including reforestation, best agricultural production, housing and furniture, enhanced oil recovery, coalbed methane (CBM), and CO2 hydrates. Many of these terrestrial and geological sequestration opportunities are expected to provide a direct economic benefit over that obtained by merely reducing the atmospheric CO2 loading. Sequestration opportunities in 11 states of the Southeast and South Central United States are discussed. Among the most promising methods for the region include reforestation and CBM. The annual forest carbon sink in this region is estimated to be 76 Tg C/year, which would amount to an expenditure of $11.1-13.9 billion/year. Best management practices could enhance carbon sequestration by 53.9 Tg C/year, accounting for 9.3% of current total annual regional greenhouse gas emission in the next 20 years. Annual carbon storage in housing, furniture, and other wood products in 1998 was estimated to be 13.9 Tg C in the region. Other sequestration options, including the direct injection of CO2 in deep saline aquifers, mineralization, and biomineralization, are not expected to lead to direct economic gain. More detailed studies are needed for assessing the ultimate changes to the environment and the associated indirect cost savings for carbon sequestration. 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London Sch Hyg & Trop Med, Dept Publ Hlth & Policy, London WC1, England. WHO, Reg Off Europe, European Ctr Environm & Hlth, Rome, Italy. RP Ebi, KL, LLC, ESS, 5249 Tancreti Lane, Alexandria, VA 22304 USA. AB Assessments of the potential human health impacts of climate change are needed to inform the development of adaptation strategies, policies, and measures to lessen projected adverse impacts. We developed methods for country-level assessments to help policy makers make evidence-based decisions to increase resilience to current and future climates, and to provide information for national communications to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. The steps in an assessment should include the following: a) determine the scope of the assessment; b) describe the current distribution and burden of climate-sensitive health determinants and outcomes; c) identify and describe current strategies, policies, and measures designed to reduce the burden of climate-sensitive health determinants and outcomes; a) review the health implications of the potential impacts of climate variability and change in other sectors; e) estimate the future potential health impacts using scenarios of future changes in climate, socioeconomic, and other factors; f) synthesize the results; and g) identify additional adaptation policies and measures to reduce potential negative health impacts. Key issues for ensuring that an assessment is informative, timely, and useful include stakeholder involvement, an adequate management structure, and a communication strategy. CR *NRC, 1989, IMPR RISK COMM *UNFCCC, 2005, UN NAT FRAM CONV CLI ALBRITTON DL, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, P21 ARNELL NW, 2004, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V14, P3 BULTO PLO, 2006, ENVIRON HEALTH PERSP, V114, P1942 CAMPBELLLENDRUM D, 2006, ENVIRON HEALTH PERSP, V114, P1935 CASIMIRO E, 2006, ENVIRON HEALTH PERSP, V114, P1950 EBI KL, 2004, B AM METEOROL SOC, V85, P1067 EBI KL, 2006, ENVIRON HEALTH PERSP, V114, P1957 FURGAL C, 2006, ENVIRON HEALTH PERSP, V114, P1964 HULME M, 2002, CLIMATE CHANGE SCENA KOVATS RS, 2003, CLIMATE CHANGE HUMAN, P181 KOVATS RS, 2003, ENV CHANGE SERIES, V1 KOVATS RS, 2003, LANCET, V361, P1481 LIM B, 2004, ADAPTATION POLICY FR MCMICHAEL AJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, P451 MOSS RH, 2000, GUIDANCE PAPERS CROS, P33 NAKICENOVIC N, 2000, EMISSIONS SCENARIOS ONEILL MS, 2003, AM J EPIDEMIOL, V157, P1074 PATZ JA, 2005, NATURE, V438, P310 SCHERAGA JD, 2003, CLIMATE CHANG HUMAN, P237 SMIT B, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, P877 WILLOWS RI, 2003, CLIMATE ADAPTATION R YOHE GW, 2005, INTEGRATION PUBLIC H, P18 NR 24 TC 1 J9 ENVIRON HEALTH PERSPECT BP 1930 EP 1934 PY 2006 PD DEC VL 114 IS 12 GA 112BN UT ISI:000242500200043 ER PT J AU Rogers, CE McCarty, JP TI Climate change and ecosystems of the Mid-Atlantic Region SO CLIMATE RESEARCH LA English DT Article C1 US EPA, Natl Ctr Environm Assessment, Washington, DC 20460 USA. Univ Maryland, Dept Biol, College Pk, MD 20742 USA. RP Rogers, CE, US EPA, Natl Ctr Environm Assessment, Washington, DC 20460 USA. AB This paper discusses the current status of forested, wetland, freshwater and coastal ecosystems; the combined impacts of habitat alteration, pollution and non-native invasive species on those systems; how climatic changes could interact with existing stresses; potential management strategies, and crucial research gaps. Changes in climate and climate variability would significantly affect natural ecosystems, and may pose additional threats to the already-stressed ecosystems of the Mid-Atlantic Region (MAR). Fragmentation of the MAR's forests may hinder the migration of some species. Urban development and wetland losses leave the MAR's rivers and streams and near-shore areas vulnerable to damages if the frequency and intensity of storms increase. Inputs of sediments, nutrients and toxic chemicals to streams, lakes and estuaries might increase if precipitation increases. Accelerated sea-level rise could accelerate the loss of coastal wetlands. Estuaries are sensitive to changes in temperature, salinity and nutrient loads, and could be adversely affected by projected climatic changes. Populations of rare, native species could decline, while problems with non-native invasive species, such as kudzu and gypsy moths, might increase. The best strategies to protect ecosystems from climatic changes may be those that reduce other stresses, thus increasing resilience to a variety of stresses. Societal priorities for ecosystem protection need to be articulated, and research is needed into the values of ecosystems, ecosystem functioning, human impacts, long-term ecological monitoring, and management options to provide a basis for selecting effective measures. CR *CHES BAY PROGR, 1995, CHES BAY INTR EC *CHES BAY PROGR, 1995, STAT CHES BAY *CLIM I, 1996, C BRINGS TOG BROAD L *CLIM I, 1996, CHANG CLIM RAIS SEA *NAT RES COUNC, 1995, WETL CHAR BOUND *OTA, 1993, OTAF565 US C *US EPA, 1995, 230R96004 EPA *US EPA, 1997, EPA903R97030 US EPA *US EPA, 1998, 600R98147 EPA *US EPA, 1999, TERMS ENV *US NAT CLIM ASS, 1997, US CLIM FOR CONS GLO ABLER DG, 2000, CLIMATE RES, V14, P185 ALWARD RD, 1999, SCIENCE, V283, P229 BAND LE, 1996, LIMNOL OCEANOGR, V41, P928 BARBOUR MG, 1988, N AM TERRESTRIAL VEG BELTRAM EJ, 1989, NOVEL PHYTOPLANKTON, P307 BENSON K, 2000, CLIMATE RES, V14, P245 BURKHOLDER JM, 1995, MAR ECOL-PROG SER, V124, P43 CARLINE RF, 1992, FISHERIES, V17, P33 CURRIE DJ, 1987, NATURE, V329, P326 DAILY GC, 1997, ECOSYSTEM SERVICES B DUKES JS, 1999, TRENDS ECOL EVOL, V14, P135 FISHER A, 1999, CLIMATE CHANGE IMPAC HAMMER DA, 1997, CREATING FRESHWATER HARVELL CD, 1999, SCIENCE, V285, P1505 HOUGHTON T, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995 HUNTER ML, 1994, CONSERV BIOL, V8, P1163 IVERSON LR, 1998, ECOL MONOGR, V68, P465 JONES KB, 1997, EPA600R097130 KARR JR, 1986, NAT HIST SURV SPEC P, V5 LIKENS GE, 1996, SCIENCE, V272, P244 MARKHAM A, 1996, ADAPTING CLIMATE CHA, P384 MATYAS C, 1997, NATO ASI SER, V147, P357 MCKENNEYEASTERLING M, 2000, CLIMATE RES, V14, P195 MEYER JL, 1992, GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANG, P177 NAJJAR RG, 2000, CLIMATE RES, V14, P219 NOSS RF, 1995, 28 US DEP INT NAT BI NOSS RF, 1997, PRINCIPLES CONSERVAT, P263 OPPENHEIMER M, 1989, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V15, P255 PARMESAN C, 1999, NATURE, V399, P579 PETERS RL, 1985, BIOSCIENCE, V35, P707 PITELKA LF, 1997, AM SCI, V85, P464 POLSKY C, 2000, CLIMATE RES, V14, P161 REJMANEK M, 1996, ECOLOGY, V77, P1655 RODRIGUEZTRELLE.F, 1998, CONSERV ECOL, V2, P1 ROOT TL, 1993, CONSERV BIOL, V7, P256 ROSE A, 2000, CLIMATE RES, V14, P175 SCHLARBAUM SE, 1999, 3 AM TRAGEDIES CHEST SCHREIBER K, 1995, OUR LIVING RESOURCES, P418 SIMBERLOFF D, 1992, CONSERV BIOL, V6, P493 THOMAS CD, 1999, NATURE, V399, P213 TITUS JG, 1995, 230R95008 EPA VITOUSEK PM, 1997, SCIENCE, V277, P494 WARREN ML, 1994, FISHERIES, V19, P6 WATSON RT, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, V1, P1 WATSON RT, 1998, REGIONAL IMPACTS CLI, V1, P1 WILLIAMS JD, 1995, OUR LIVING RESOURCES, P177 WILLIAMS JD, 1998, STATUS TRENDS NATION, P117 NR 58 TC 4 J9 CLIMATE RES BP 235 EP 244 PY 2000 PD MAY 2 VL 14 IS 3 GA 326ZD UT ISI:000087766400009 ER PT J AU Chowdhury, RR TI Driving forces of tropical deforestation: The role of remote sensing and spatial models SO SINGAPORE JOURNAL OF TROPICAL GEOGRAPHY LA English DT Review C1 Univ Miami, Dept Geog & Reg Studies, Coral Gables, FL 33124 USA. RP Chowdhury, RR, Univ Miami, Dept Geog & Reg Studies, Coral Gables, FL 33124 USA. AB Remote sensing technologies are increasingly used to monitor landscape change in many parts of the world. While the availability of extensive and timely imagery from various satellite sensors can aid in identifying the rates and patterns of deforestation, modelling techniques can evaluate the socioeconomic and biophysical forces driving deforestation processes. This paper briefly reviews some emerging spatial methodologies aimed at identifying driving forces of land use change and applies one such methodology to understand deforestation in Mexico. Satellite image classification, change analysis and econometric modelling are used to identify the rates, hotspots and drivers of deforestation in a case study of the southern Yucatan peninsular region, an enumerated global hotspot of biodiversity and tropical deforestation. In particular, the relative roles of biophysical and socioeconomic factors in driving regional deforestation rates are evaluated. Such methodological approaches can be applied to other regions of the forested tropics and contribute insights to conservation planning and policy. 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I, 2001, ECOL ECON, V38, P403 RUDEL T, 1997, WORLD DEV, V25, P53 RUDEL TK, 1989, RURAL SOCIOL, V54, P327 RUTTAN VW, 1984, J DEV STUD, V20, P203 SADER SA, 1990, PHOTOGRAMM ENG REM S, V56, P1343 SADER SA, 1994, HUM ECOL, V22, P317 SAURA S, 2004, LANDSCAPE ECOL, V19, P197 SECRETT C, 1986, ECOLOGIST, V16, P77 SETO KC, 2003, LAND ECON, V79, P106 SHUKLA J, 1990, SCIENCE, V247, P1322 SMITH JB, 1999, AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON, V76, P85 SMITH JH, 2003, REMOTE SENS ENVIRON, V84, P342 STOKER TM, 1993, J ECON LIT, V31, P1827 SUNDERLIN WD, 1994, 9 CIFOR THIELE R, 1994, INTERECONOMICS, V29, P184 THORBURN CC, 2004, ASIA PACIFIC VIEWPOI, V45, P33 TURNER BL, 1983, ONCE BENEATH FOREST TURNER BL, 1987, COMP FARMING SYSTEMS TURNER BL, 1995, 35 IGBP TURNER BL, 1996, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V93, P14984 TURNER BL, 2001, FOREST ECOL MANAG, V154, P343 TURNER BL, 2002, CHALLENGES CHANGING, P21 TURNER BL, 2003, LOWLAND MAYA AREA 3, P361 TURNER BL, 2004, INTEGRATED LAND CHAN TURNER MG, 1996, ECOL APPL, V6, P1150 VANCE C, 2004, INTEGRATED LAND CHAN, P221 VANDERVEEN A, 2001, ENVIRON MODEL ASSESS, V6, P145 VASQUEZLEON M, 2004, HUM ORGAN, V63, P21 VERBURG PH, 1999, ECOL MODEL, V116, P45 WALKER R, 2004, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V94, P311 WALKER R, 2004, INT REGIONAL SCI REV, V27, P247 WALSH SJ, 2001, AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON, V85, P47 WHITMORE T, 2001, CULTIVATED LANDSCAPE WHITTEN AJ, 1987, CONSERV BIOL, V1, P239 WIENS JA, 1989, FUNCT ECOL, V3, P385 WOOD CH, 1998, PEOPLE PIXELS LINKIN, P70 WOODWELL GM, 1987, J GEOPHYS RES-ATMOSP, V92, P2157 NR 134 TC 0 J9 SING J TROP GEOGR BP 82 EP 101 PY 2006 PD MAR VL 27 IS 1 GA 022AL UT ISI:000236026900007 ER PT J AU Yarnal, B Neff, R TI Whither parity? The need for a comprehensive curriculum in human-environment geography SO PROFESSIONAL GEOGRAPHER LA English DT Article C1 Penn State Univ, Ctr Integrated Reg Assessment, University Pk, PA 16802 USA. Penn State Univ, Dept Geog, University Pk, PA 16802 USA. RP Yarnal, B, Penn State Univ, Ctr Integrated Reg Assessment, University Pk, PA 16802 USA. AB If human-environment geography is central to the discipline, then human-environment courses should be a sizable segment of the undergraduate curriculum. Undergraduate educational offerings are inadequate, however, meaning that geography departments are shortchanging their majors, missing opportunities to attract and inform the general student body, and failing to meet the needs of future K-12 educators. Unless geography provides satisfactory human-environment education, it will likely have much less impact on twenty-first-century environmental science. CR *AAG, 2003, AAG NEWSLETTER, V38, P1 *AAG, 2003, GUID GEOGR PROGR N A *ENV PERC BEH GEOG, MISS STAT *MILL EC ASS, 2003, EC HUM WELL BEING FR *NAT RES COUNC, 1999, OUR COMM JOURN TRANS *NAT RES COUNC, 2001, GRAND CHALL ENV SCI *NSF ACERE, 2003, COMPL ENV SYST SYNTH *UN C ENV DEV, 1992, AG 21 PROGR ACT SUST BEDNARZ SW, 1994, GEOGRAPHY LIFE NATL CLARK WC, 2003, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V100, P8059 DIDUCK AP, 1997, CAN GEOGR-GEOGR CAN, V41, P294 EMEL J, 1989, NEW MODELS GEOGRAPHY, P49 GAILLE GL, 2004, GEOGRAPHY AM TURN 21 GOUDIE AS, 1986, T I BRIT GEOGR, V11, P454 HUCKLE J, 2002, GEOGRAPHY 1, V87, P64 LIVINGSTONE D, 2000, J GEOGRAPHY HIGHER E, V26, P217 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 MCKEOWNICE R, 2000, J ENVIRON EDUC, V32, P4 MCKEOWNICE R, 2002, ED SUSTAINABLE DEV T METZ B, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 RAVEN PH, 2002, SCIENCE, V297, P954 SACHS W, 1993, GLOBAL ECOLOGY NEW A, P3 SCHELLNHUBER HJ, 1998, EARTH SYSTEM ANAL IN SMITH N, 1989, NEW MODELS GEOGRAPHY, P142 STERN PC, 1992, GLOBAL ENV CHANGE UN STODDART DR, 1987, T I BRIT GEOGR, V12, P327 TURNER BL, 2002, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V92, P52 WARF B, 1999, PROF GEOGR, V51, P586 WILBANKS TJ, 1999, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V43, P601 NR 29 TC 0 J9 PROF GEOGR BP 28 EP 36 PY 2004 PD FEB VL 56 IS 1 GA 766EY UT ISI:000188354800005 ER PT J AU Hutton, D Haque, CE TI Patterns of coping and adaptation among erosion-induced displacees in Bangladesh: Implications for hazard analysis and mitigation SO NATURAL HAZARDS LA English DT Article C1 Univ Manitoba, Nat Resources Inst, Winnipeg, MB, Canada. RP Hutton, D, Univ Manitoba, Nat Resources Inst, Winnipeg, MB, Canada. AB The purpose of this research was to identify social, cultural and psychological aspects of riverbank erosion-induced displacement in the flood plains of Bangladesh. Although considerable research has examined the social and economic impacts of riverine hazards in Bangladesh, there has been a general neglect of associated psychosocial implications. The specific objectives of the study were to: (1) assess hazard awareness in relation to riverbank erosion, (2) determine the magnitude of psychological distress associated with displacement, and (3) identify patterns of psychosocial coping and adaptation common to displaced persons in Bangladesh. Although displacees were found to have a significantly higher level of distress than non-displacees, this was related primarily to socioeconomic deprivation rather than to displacement per se. The findings of this study showed that the constant threat of riverbank erosion has contributed to a substantial disaster subculture in the riverine zones of Bangladesh. The commonly hypothesized factors such as loss of land and frequency and duration of displacement were not significantly associated with distress levels. The need to integrate into hazard analysis and mitigation studies a social, cultural and psychological context is recommended. In Bangladesh, the poor cope with hardship and problems by relying on religion, which in turn significantly influences how they perceive and interpret natural calamities. It is argued that the capacity of people to respond to environmental threats is a function of not only the physical forces which affect them, but of indigenous social and cultural belief systems which influence how people interpret and organize their activities. Hazard analysis and mitigation would be most effective when it takes into account psychological and socio-cultural aspects of disasters, due to the fact that psychological distress impacts the capacity of people to achieve livelihoods, but also important social and psychological processes determine the way people perceive and adapt to natural hazards. CR *FLOOD PLAIN COORD, 1995, BANGL WAT FLOOD MAN *ISPAN, 1993, ISPAN CHAR STUD JAM *WORLD BANK, 1998, BANGL 2020 LONG TERM *WORLD BANK, 1998, WORLD DEV REP 1998 ALEXANDER D, 1993, NATURAL HAZARDS ANDERSON M, 1993, RISING ASHES DEV STR BELL M, 1995, SOC SCI MED, V40, P1169 BLAIKIE PM, 1994, RISK NATURAL HAZARDS, V1, P1 CANNON T, 1994, DISASTERS DEV ENV, P13 CHAMBERS R, 1983, RURAL DEV PUTTING LA CHOWDHURY MR, 2000, NAT HAZARDS, V22, P139 FABREGA H, 1983, CULTURAL CONCEPTIONS, P39 GALAY VJ, 1980, P INT S RIV SED BEIJ GILSENAN M, 1982, RECOGNIZING ISLAM RE GUINNESS EA, 1992, BRIT J PSYCHIAT, V160, P4 HAQUE C, 1988, THESIS U MANITOBA WI HAQUE C, 1994, DISASTERS DEV ENV, P65 HAQUE C, 1997, HAZARDS FICKLE ENV B HAQUE CE, 1989, DISASTERS, V13, P300 HARDING T, 1983, PSYCHOL MED, V10, P231 HARTMANN B, 1990, QUIET VIOLENCE HEWITT K, 1997, REGIONS RISK GEOGRAP, V1, P1 INGHAM B, 1993, WORLD DEV, V21, P1803 ISLAM M, 1985, REIS NEWSLETTER, V2, P11 ITTELSON W, 1974, INTRO ENV PSYCHOL JANUZZI F, 1980, AGRARIAN STRUCTURE B KLEINMAN A, 1978, ANN INTERN MED, V88, P251 MASKREY A, 1994, DISASTER DEV ENG, P109 MCCRAE RR, 1986, J PERS, V54, P385 MILETI D, 1999, DISASTERS DESIGN REA RAHIM SIA, 1989, BRIT J PSYCHIAT, V155, P44 ROGGE J, 1987, ANN M ASS AM GEOGR P ROGGE J, 1989, RIVERBANK IMPACT STU STREETEN P, 1994, AM ECON REV, V84, P232 TARAFDAR M, 1974, STUDIES BANGLADESH, P22 THORNE CR, 1982, GRAVEL BED RIVERS, P227 VARLEY A, 1994, DISASTERS DEV ENVIRO, P1 ZAMAN MQ, 1989, HUM ORGAN, V48, P196 NR 38 TC 0 J9 NATURAL HAZARDS BP 405 EP 421 PY 2003 PD JUL VL 29 IS 3 GA 701NR UT ISI:000184174100007 ER PT J AU Tsur, Y Zemel, A TI Welfare measurement under threats of environmental catastrophes SO JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL ECONOMICS AND MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article C1 Hebrew Univ Jerusalem, Dept Agr Econ & Management, IL-76100 Rehovot, Israel. Ben Gurion Univ Negev, Jacob Blaustein Inst Desert Res, Dept Solar Energy & Environm Phys, IL-84105 Beer Sheva, Israel. Ben Gurion Univ Negev, Dept Ind Engn & Management, IL-84990 Sede Boqer, Israel. RP Zemel, A, Ben Gurion Univ Negev, Jacob Blaustein Inst Desert Res, Dept Solar Energy & Environm Phys, Sede Boker Campus, IL-84990 Sede Boqer, Israel. AB Welfare measures under threats of environmental catastrophes are studied using the "parable" apparatus of Weitzman and Lofgren [On the welfare significance of green accounting as taught by parable, J. Environ. Econ. Manage. 32 (1997) 139-153]. The occurrence probability of the catastrophic events is driven (at least partly) by anthropogenic activities such as natural resource exploitation. Without external effects, the green NNP is a genuine welfare measure vis-a-vis a particular parable economy. Often, however, the occurrence hazard constitutes a public bad, treated as an externality by agents who ignore their own contribution to its accumulation. In such cases the green NNP, although accounting for the event hazard rate per se, fails to properly internalize future effects on the hazard rate of current economic activities and as a result overestimates welfare. The bias term associated with the green NNP is derived and expressed in a simple and interpretable form. (c) 2006 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. CR MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 ARONSSON T, 1996, SCAND J ECON, V98, P185 ARONSSON T, 2004, WELFARE MEASUREMENT ARRONSON T, 1998, ENVIRON RESOUR ECON, V11, P117 ASHEIM GB, 1997, SCAND J ECON, V99, P355 ASHEIM GB, 2001, ECON LETT, V73, P233 ASHEIM GB, 2001, J ENVIRON ECON MANAG, V41, P252 ASHEIM GB, 2004, SCAND J ECON, V106, P361 CLARKE HR, 1994, J ECON DYN CONTROL, V18, P991 CROPPER ML, 1976, J ENVIRON ECON MANAG, V3, P1 DASGUPTA P, 2003, ENVIRON RESOUR ECON, V26, P499 FISHER AC, 2003, ENVIRON RESOUR ECON, V25, P395 HARTWICK JM, 1990, J PUBLIC ECON, V43, P291 HAYHOE K, 2004, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V101, P12422 LIMBURG KE, 2002, ECOL ECON, V41, P409 LUCAS R, 1998, J MONETARY ECON, V22, P3 MALER KG, 1991, ENVIRON RESOUR ECON, V1, P1 MALER KG, 2000, EUR ECON REV, V44, P645 MICHEL P, 1982, ECONOMETRICA, V50, P975 TSUR Y, 1994, NATURAL RESOURCE MOD, V8, P389 TSUR Y, 1996, J ECON DYN CONTROL, V20, P1289 TSUR Y, 1998, J ECON DYN CONTROL, V22, P967 TSUR Y, 2005, FRONTIERS BIODIVERSI WEITZMAN ML, 1976, Q J ECON, V90, P156 WEITZMAN ML, 1997, J ENVIRON ECON MANAG, V32, P139 WEITZMAN ML, 1997, SCAND J ECON, V99, P1 WEITZMAN ML, 2000, ENVIRON DEV ECON, V5, P55 WEITZMAN ML, 2001, SCAND J ECON, V103, P1 WEITZMAN ML, 2003, INCOME CAPITAL MAXIM NR 29 TC 0 J9 J ENVIRON ECON MANAGE BP 421 EP 429 PY 2006 PD JUL VL 52 IS 1 GA 066ID UT ISI:000239222000004 ER PT J AU Van der Veen, A Logtmeijer, C TI Economic hotspots: Visualizing vulnerability to flooding SO NATURAL HAZARDS LA English DT Article C1 Univ Twente, Dept Business Technol & Publ Policy, NL-7500 AE Enschede, Netherlands. RP Van der Veen, A, Univ Twente, Dept Business Technol & Publ Policy, POB 217, NL-7500 AE Enschede, Netherlands. AB We simulate a large-scale flooding in the province of South-Holland in the economic centre of the Netherlands. In traditional research, damage due to flooding is computed with a unit loss method coupling land use information to depth-damage functions. Normally only direct costs are incorporated as an estimate of damage to infrastructure, property and business disruption. We extend this damage concept with the indirect economic effects on the rest of the regional and national economy on basis of a bi-regional input output table.We broaden this damage estimation to the concept of vulnerability. Vulnerability is defined as a function of dependence, redundancy and susceptibility. Susceptibility is the probability and extent of flooding. Dependency is the degree to which an activity relates to other economic activities in the rest of the country. Input-output multipliers form representations of this dependency. Redundancy is the ability of an economic activity to respond to a disaster by deferring, using substitutes or relocating. We measure redundancy as the degree of centrality of an economic activity in a network. The more central an activity is, the less it encounters possibilities to transfer production and the more vulnerable it is for flooding. Vulnerability of economic activities is then visualized in a GIS. Kernel density estimation is applied to generalize point information on inundated firms to sectoral information in space. We apply spatial interpolation techniques for the whole of the province of South-Holland. Combining information of sectoral data on dependency and redundancy, we are able to create maps of economic hotspots. Our simulation of a flood in the centre of Holland reveals the vulnerability of a densely populated delta. CR *EPA, 2000, 240R00003 EPA US *FEMA, 1999, HAZ TECHN MAN, V3 WATSON RT, 1998, REGIONAL IMPACTS CLI, V1, P1 *MAFF, 2000, FLOOD COAST DEF PROJ *RUJKSW, 2000, RUIMT RIV *UNEP, 2002, GLOB ENV OUTL, V3 BLAIKIE PM, 1994, RISK NATURAL HAZARDS, V1, P1 COCHRANE HC, 1997, FORECASTING EC IMPAC COCHRANE HC, 2003, JOINT NEDIES U TWENT COLE S, 1998, ENG SOCIOECONOMIC IM EDING G, 1995, BIREGIONALE INTERACT FRANK O, 2002, SOC NETWORKS, V24, P385 FREEMAN PK, 2002, WORKING PAPERS SERIE, V4 FUNTOWICZ SO, 1993, FUTURES, V25, P739 GREEN C, 2003, JOINT NEDIES U TWENT HAZARI BR, 1970, REV ECON STAT, V52, P301 KILKENNY M, 1998, KEYSTONE SECTOR IDEN LEINHARDT S, 1997, SOCIAL NETWORKS DEV LEONTIEF W, 1952, REV ECON STAT, V34, P1 LEONTIEF W, 1986, INPUT OUTPUT EC, P318 LEVINE N, 2002, CRIMESTAT II SPATIAL LOMBORG B, 1998, SKEPTICAL ENV MILLER REB, 1985, INPUT OUTPUT ANAL FD, P100 PARKER DJ, 1987, URBAN FLOOD PROTECTI PERRINGS C, 2001, FRONTIERS ENV EC, P319 ROSE A, 1998, ENG SOCIOECONOMIC IM ROSE A, 2002, ENV HAZARDS, V4, P1 TALLBERG C, 2000, COMP DEGREE BASED CL THURSTAIN M, 2000, 18 CTR ADV SPAT AN THURSTAIN M, 2001, PRODUCING BOUNDARIES VANDERVEEN A, 2003, JOINT NEDIES U TWENT VANECK NV, 2001, STANDAARD METHODE SC NR 32 TC 2 J9 NATURAL HAZARDS BP 65 EP 80 PY 2005 PD SEP VL 36 IS 1-2 GA 943PF UT ISI:000230365500005 ER PT J AU Dubroeucq, D Livenais, P TI Land cover and land use changes in relation to social evolution - a case study from Northern Chile SO JOURNAL OF ARID ENVIRONMENTS LA English DT Article C1 IRD, F-93143 Bondy, France. IRD, Santiago 1, Chile. RP Dubroeucq, D, IRD, 32 Ave Henri Varagnat, F-93143 Bondy, France. AB In the Chile's Choapa valley (4th Region), the small-scale irrigated agriculture found today was brought about by the changes in land tenure which occurred between 1965 and 1975. In the Chillepin district, an-extensive holding that produced wheat and cattle was expropriated and, after a period of collective farming, small family holdings of vineyards and orchards took their place. These changes were studied over a 50 years period through the use of social enquiries, local history, vegetation measurements and aerial photographs so as to compare the effects of the successive agrarian systems on the environment. The most intense wood extraction occurred during the 8 years' period just after the expropriation. During 25 years of small family farming we observed that (i) diversity and number of cultivated plots in the irrigated area have increased and (ii) tree vegetation in the hinterland has partially recovered. The first is due to the know-how of the peasants, who agreed to specialize in grape production as the market became assured, but who have managed other productions in mixed farming using few chemicals and the traditional irrigation system. The second effect, in the mountainous hinterland, is mainly due to (1) the termination of rain farming and charcoal production, (2) the slowing down of the deforestation for fuel-wood and (3) the controlling of the perimeter as private property. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *CORA, 1968, PLAN CHOAPA *CORA, 1975, PROYECT PARC CHILL *DIR GEN AG, 2001, REG PREC MENS TOT *INE, 1952, CENS POBL CHIL *INE, 1960, CENS POBL CHIL *INE, 1964, CENS AGR CHIL *INE, 1970, CENS POBL CHIL *INE, 1975, CENS AGR CHIL *INE, 1982, CENS POBL CHIL *INE, 1992, CENS POBL CHIL *INE, 1997, CENS AGR CHIL *SAG, 1980, EST AS DER AG UN PRO AGUIRRE S, 1988, CIENC INVEST, V3, P45 ALVAREZ D, 2002, SECHERESSE, V13, P21 ASCHMANN H, 1977, STUDY CONVERGENT EVO ASCHMANN H, 1990, BIOGEOGRAPHY MEDITER, P33 ASTORGA L, 1967, BASES PRECOOPERATIVA BAHRE C, 1974, THESIS U CALIFORNIA BLAIKIE PM, 1994, RISK NATURAL HAZARDS, V1, P1 BLANCPAMARD C, 2000, TERRIOR SON DOUBLE T CHOUTEAU E, 1887, INFORME PROVINCIA CO CUNILL P, 1971, INFORMACIONES GEOGR, V20, P235 DAHLBERG AC, 1999, ENVIRON HIST, V5, P127 DANDO PR, 2000, PHYS CHEM EARTH PT B, V25, P1 ECHENIQUE J, 1972, REFORMA AGRARIA CHIL, P93 FOTSING JM, 1995, TERRE TERROIR TERRIT FUENTES ER, 1979, ENVIRON CONSERV, V6, P265 FUENTES ER, 1995, ECOLOGY BIOGEOGRAPHY, P401 KASUSYA P, 1998, J ARID ENVIRON, V39, P325 LIVENAIS P, 1998, C SFER IRR GEST COLL LIVENAIS P, 2000, VALLES, V5 LOCATELLI B, 2000, THESIS ECOLE NAT GEN MOGUILLANSKY G, 1998, REFORMAS EC, V3 MOONEY HA, 1972, MADRONO, V21, P305 MORTIMORE MJ, 2001, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V11, P49 POUGET J, 1996, AMBIENTE ARIDO DESAR PRADO JA, 1987, CIENC INVEST, V1, P11 RUNDEL PW, 1981, ECOSYSTEMS WORLD, V11, P175 SANTANDER A, 1993, CONTRIBUCIO ESTUDIO THOMAS LC, 1999, ASTM STAND NEWS, V27, P6 TORRES A, 1987, AGR TECNICA, V47, P313 NR 41 TC 0 J9 J ARID ENVIRON BP 193 EP 211 PY 2004 PD JAN VL 56 IS 2 GA 761CP UT ISI:000187882500001 ER PT J AU Mkanda, FX TI Potential impacts of future climate change on nyala Tragelaphus angasi in Lengwe National Park, Malawi SO CLIMATE RESEARCH LA English DT Article RP Mkanda, FX, DEPT NATL PARKS & WILDLIFE,POB 30131,LILONGWE 3,MALAWI. AB General Circulation Models (GCMs) were used to develop climate change scenarios for the Lengwe National Park in Malawi. Scenarios of future precipitation and ambient temperature were in turn used to evaluate habitat suitability of 5 ungulate populations and to rank their vulnerability to global climate change in the park. Preliminary results suggest that ambient temperatures may rise with a doubling of atmospheric CO2, and precipitation will be more variable. The vulnerability assessment results suggest that all the ungulates, especially nyala antelope Tragelaphus angasi, could be highly susceptible to climate induced changes in habitat and food supply. Adaptive measures, such as translocation, culling, and expanding the water supply, may alleviate climatic change impacts on nyala and other ungulates. CR *DEP SURV, 1975, ATLAS SHIRE VALLEY *US FISH WILDL SER, 1981, 103 ESM US FISH WILD BOER GJ, 1992, J CLIMATE, V5, P1045 CARTER TR, 1994, INTERGOVERNMENTAL PA CAUGHLEY GBH, 1983, GUIDELINES MANAGEMEN, P32 CAUGHLEY GBH, 1983, GUIDELINES MANAGEMEN, R4 CLARKE JE, 1983, PROTECTED AREAS MAST COE MJ, 1976, OECOLOGIA, V22, P341 HANSEN J, 1983, MON WEATHER REV, V111, P609 HOUGHTON JT, 1992, CLIMATE CHANGE 1992 HULME M, 1994, 9504 GEC U E ANGL CT KOMBE ADC, 1983, MANAGEMENT LARGE MAM MAGADZA CHD, 1994, FOOD POLICY, V19, P165 MANABE S, 1987, J ATMOS SCI, V44, P1211 MARKHAM A, 1996, CLIMATE RES, V6, P179 MILLSAP BA, 1990, WILDLIFE MONOGR, V111, P1 MITCHELL JFB, 1989, NATURE, V341, P132 MKANDA FX, 1988, REV CULLING NYALA TR, P59 MKANDA FX, 1991, AFR J ECOL, V29, P28 MKANDA FX, 1991, P 1 NAT WORKSH LIV P, P9 MKANDA FX, 1994, BIODIVERS CONSERV, V3, P29 MKANDA FX, 1996, IN PRESS ENV CONSERV MUNTHALI SM, 1991, NYALA, V15, P17 MUNTHALI SM, 1992, BIODIVERS CONSERV, V1, P143 OMINDE SH, 1991, CHANGE WEATHER AFRIC, P3 UNGANAI LS, 1996, CLIMATE RES, V6, P137 WALKER BH, 1987, J APPL ECOL, V24, P381 WESTERN D, 1991, AFRICAN CTR TECHNOLO, P87 NR 28 TC 2 J9 CLIMATE RES BP 157 EP 164 PY 1996 PD FEB 19 VL 6 IS 2 GA UD549 UT ISI:A1996UD54900011 ER PT J AU Wohl, E Angermeier, PL Bledsoe, B Kondolf, GM MacDonnell, L Merritt, DM Palmer, MA Poff, NL Tarboton, D TI River restoration SO WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH LA English DT Article C1 Colorado State Univ, Dept Geosci, Ft Collins, CO 80523 USA. Virginia Polytech Inst & State Univ, Dept Fisheries & Wildlife Sci, Blacksburg, VA 24061 USA. Colorado State Univ, Dept Civil Engn, Ft Collins, CO 80523 USA. Univ Calif Berkeley, Dept Landscape Architecture & Environm Planning, Berkeley, CA 94720 USA. Porzak Browning & Bushong LLP, Boulder, CO 80302 USA. US Forest Serv, Stream Syst Technol Ctr, Rocky Mt Res Stn, USDA,NRRC, Ft Collins, CO 80526 USA. Univ Maryland, Dept Biol, College Pk, MD 20742 USA. Colorado State Univ, Dept Biol, Ft Collins, CO 80523 USA. Utah State Univ, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Logan, UT 84322 USA. Colorado State Univ, Dept Geosci, Ft Collins, CO 80523 USA. RP Wohl, E, Colorado State Univ, Dept Geosci, 1482 Campus Delivery, Ft Collins, CO 80523 USA. AB [1] River restoration is at the forefront of applied hydrologic science. However, many river restoration projects are conducted with minimal scientific context. We propose two themes around which a research agenda to advance the scientific basis for river restoration can be built. First, because natural variability is an inherent feature of all river systems, we hypothesize that restoration of process is more likely to succeed than restoration aimed at a fixed end point. Second, because physical, chemical, and biological processes are interconnected in complex ways across watersheds and across timescales, we hypothesize that restoration projects are more likely to be successful in achieving goals if undertaken in the context of entire watersheds. To achieve restoration objectives, the science of river restoration must include ( 1) an explicit recognition of the known complexities and uncertainties, ( 2) continued development of a theoretical framework that enables us to identify generalities among river systems and to ask relevant questions, ( 3) enhancing the science and use of restoration monitoring by measuring the most effective set of variables at the correct scales of measurement, ( 4) linking science and implementation, and ( 5) developing methods of restoration that are effective within existing constraints. Key limitations to river restoration include a lack of scientific knowledge of watershed-scale process dynamics, institutional structures that are poorly suited to large-scale adaptive management, and a lack of political support to reestablish delivery of the ecosystem amenities lost through river degradation. This paper outlines an approach for addressing these shortcomings. 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RP Kalipeni, E, Univ Illinois, Dept Geog, 220 Davenport Hall,MC150,607 S Mathews Ave, Urbana, IL 61801 USA. AB Using a vulnerability and comparative perspective, this paper examines the status of health in southern Africa highlighting the disease complex and some of the factors for the deteriorating health conditions. It is argued that aggregate social and health care indicators for the region such as life expectancy and infant mortality rates often mask regional variations and intra-country inequalities. Furthermore, the optimistic projections of a decade ago about dramatic increases in life expectancy and declines in infant mortality rates seem to have been completely out of line given the current and anticipated devastating effects of the HIV/AIDS pandemic in southern Africa. The central argument is that countries experiencing political and/or economic instability have been more vulnerable to the spread of diseases such HIV/AIDS and the collapse of their health care systems. Similarly, vulnerable social groups such-as commercial sex workers and women have been hit hardest by the deteriorating health care conditions and the spread of HIV/AIDS. The paper offers a detailed discussion of several interrelated themes which, through the lense of vulnerability theory, examine the deteriorating health care conditions, disease and mortality, the AIDS/HIV situation and the role of structural adjustment in the provision of health care. The paper concludes by noting that the key to a more equitable and healthy future seems to lie squarely with increased levels of gender empowerment. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *AFR DEV BANK, 1992, AFR DEV REP 1992 *AM GOV, 1989, HLTH INF SYST REF TA *DEP NAT HLTH POP, 1991, HLTH TRENDS S AFR *NAT STAT OFF, 1991, MAL HOUS POP CENS 19 *NAT STAT OFF, 1994, MAL DEM HLTH SURV 19 *POP REF BUR, 1992, WORLD POP DAT SHEET *UN, 1992, UN C ENV DEV RIO JAN *UNAIDS, 1998, EP FACT SHEET HIV AI *UNDP, 1997, HUM DEV REP *UNICEF, 1994, STAT WORLDS CHILDR R *UNICEF, 1996, STAT WORLDS CHILDR R *US COMM REF, 1987, UPR ANG CRIS CAT AM *WORLD BANK, 1992, MAL POP SECT STUD, V1 *WORLD BANK, 1994, BETT HLTH AFR EXP LE ARYEETEYATTOH S, 1997, GEOGRAPHY SUBSAHARAN, P223 ASTHANA S, 1994, HLTH DEV, P50 BECKER CM, 1990, WORLD DEV, V18, P1599 BLOLAND PB, 1995, AIDS, V9, P721 BOERMA T, 1987, SOC SCI MED, V24, P551 BOERMA T, 1994, POPUL DEV REV, V20, P206 BRADLEY DJ, 1991, DIS MORTALITY SUBSAH CAMPBELL C, 1997, SOC SCI MED, V45, P273 CARAEL M, 1996, POPULATION WOMEN, P125 CHABOT J, 1995, AFRICAN PRIMARY HLTH CHISVO M, 1994, UNPUB REV SOCIAL DIM COSTELLO A, 1994, HUMAN FACE HUMAN FAC CUNNAN P, 1997, ISSUES PERSPECTIVES, P165 FALOLA T, 1992, POLITICAL EC HLTH AF FEACHEM RG, 1991, DIS MORTALITY SUBSAH GAISE K, 1993, ZAMBIA DEMOGRAPHIC H GORDON AA, 1996, UNDERSTANDING CONT A, P167 GOULD P, 1993, SLOW PLAGUE GEOGRAPH GRAHAM WJ, 1991, DISEASE MORTALITY SU, P101 HOFFMAN M, 1997, SOC SCI MED, V45, P149 IKINGER U, 1994, SCHISTOSOMIASIS NEW KALIPENI E, 1995, 21 CENTURY AFRO REV, V1, P73 KALIPENI E, 1996, J SOCIAL DEV AFRICA, V11, P53 KALIPENI E, 1998, APPL GEOGR C HELD LO KALUMBA K, 1990, IMPACT STRUCTURAL AD KATJIUANJO P, 1993, NAMIBIA DEMOGRAPHIC KING M, 1992, STORY MED DIS MALAWI KLASEN S, 1996, J DEV STUD, V32, P913 KLOOS H, 1993, ECOLOGY HLTH DIS ETH KLOOS H, 1994, HLTH DEV, P199 KOOL HEJ, 1990, TROP GEOGR MED, V42, P128 KRISTENSEN JK, 1990, GENITOURIN MED, V66, P244 LENSINK R, 1996, STRUCTURAL ADJUSTMEN LESETEDI L, 1989, BOTSWANA FAMILY HLTH MCCRACKEN N, 1998, COMMUNICATION 0423 MCPAKE B, 1993, SOC SCI MED, V36, P25 MEAD SM, 1988, MED GEOGRAPHY MIOTTI PG, 1992, INT J EPIDEMIOL, V21, P792 MOODLEY V, 1997, ISSUES PERSPECTIVES, P179 NAMANJA GB, 1993, PRELIMINARY REPORT S OPPONG J, 1997, GEOGRAPHY SUBSAHARAN, P147 OPPONG J, 1998, MED CONSEQUENCES SOC OPPONG JR, 1998, PROF GEOGR, V50, P437 PACKARD RM, 1991, SOC SCI MED, V33, P771 PAUL BK, 1993, SOC SCI MED, V37, P745 POTTS D, 1995, GEOGR J, V161, P245 REEVE PA, 1989, BRIT MED J, V298, P1567 SANTOW G, 1996, POPULATION WOMEN, P125 STANECKI KA, 1996, AIDS WORLD 2 GLOBAL, P41 STOCK R, 1995, AFRICA S SAHARA GEOG STREEFLAND P, 1995, AFRICAN PRIMARY HLTH, P11 SVEDBERG P, 1990, J DEV STUD, V26, P469 TEVERA DS, 1997, ISSUES PERSPECTIVES, P227 WAKIN DJ, 1998, NEWS GAZETTE B 1025, B4 WALKER JC, 1994, MALARIA OTHER PARASI WATTS MJ, 1993, PROG HUM GEOG, V17, P43 ZULU E, 1996, THESIS U PENNSYLVANI NR 71 TC 3 J9 SOC SCI MED BP 965 EP 983 PY 2000 PD APR VL 50 IS 7-8 GA 285LD UT ISI:000085389800006 ER PT J AU Guo, HM Wang, YX TI Specific vulnerability assessment using the MLPI model in Datong city, Shanxi province, China SO ENVIRONMENTAL GEOLOGY LA English DT Article C1 Tsing Hua Univ, Dept Environm Sci & Engn, Beijing 100084, Peoples R China. China Univ Geosci, Dept Hydrogeol & Environm Engn, Wuhan 430074, Peoples R China. RP Guo, HM, Tsing Hua Univ, Dept Environm Sci & Engn, Beijing 100084, Peoples R China. AB This study outlines an improved method, MLPI (modified leaching potential index) model, for delineating and mapping groundwater vulnerability and assessing groundwater vulnerability to contaminants, including degradable contaminants, radioactive elements and nondegradable pollutants. The primary objective is to produce specific sensitivity maps at city or county scale that can be used for recognition of aquifer sensitivity and for protection of groundwater quality. Groundwater vulnerability assessment using the MLPI method is applied to Datong city, Shanxi Province, with the following conclusions: (1) specific vulnerability was differentiated and; (2) groundwater vulnerability is of temporal variation. CR *NAT RES COUNC, 1994, ALT GROUND WAT CLEAN AGELL KG, 1992, NATL ENV J, V2, P20 BEKESI G, 2000, GROUND WATER, V38, P193 BRITT JK, 1992, ENVIRON TOXICOL CHEM, V11, P721 CARSEL RF, 1985, ECOL MODEL, V30, P49 DOERFLIGER N, 1999, ENVIRON GEOL, V39, P165 ENFIELD CG, 1982, GROUND WATER, V8, P339 GOGU RC, 2000, ENVIRON GEOL, V39, P549 GUO HM, 2003, J ENVIRON SCI HEAL A, V38, P2565 LEONARD RA, 1987, T ASAE, V30, P1403 MCMAHON PB, 1999, GROUND WATER, V37, P396 MEEKS YJ, 1990, J WATER RES PL-ASCE, V116, P693 OHANNESIN SF, 1998, GROUND WATER, V36, P164 RAO PSC, 1985, P SOIL CROP SCI SOC, V44, P1 RAO PSC, 1993, REGIONAL GROUND WATE, P345 WAGENET RJ, 1986, J ENVIRON QUAL, V15, P315 WANG RF, 2001, P 10 INT S WAT ROCK, P605 NR 17 TC 0 J9 ENVIRON GEOL BP 401 EP 407 PY 2004 PD JAN VL 45 IS 3 GA 756WN UT ISI:000187507700009 ER PT J AU Schroter, D Cramer, W Leemans, R Prentice, IC Araujo, MB Arnell, NW Bondeau, A Bugmann, H Carter, TR Gracia, CA de la Vega-Leinert, AC Erhard, M Ewert, F Glendining, M House, JI Kankaanpaa, S Klein, RJT Lavorel, S Lindner, M Metzger, MJ Meyer, J Mitchell, TD Reginster, I Rounsevell, MDA Sabate, S Sitch, S Smith, B Smith, JB Smith, P Sykes, MT Thonicke, K Thuiller, W Tuck, G Zaehle, S Zierl, B TI Ecosystem service supply and vulnerability to global change in Europe SO SCIENCE LA English DT Article C1 Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res, D-14473 Potsdam, Germany. Harvard Univ, Ctr Int Dev, Cambridge, MA 02138 USA. Univ Wageningen & Res Ctr, Dept Environm Sci, NL-6700 AA Wageningen, Netherlands. Univ Bristol, Dept Earth Sci, Bristol BS8 1RJ, Avon, England. Univ Oxford, Sch Geog & Environm, Oxford OX1 3TB, England. CSIC, Museo Nacl Ciencias Nat, E-28006 Madrid, Spain. Univ Southampton, Sch Geog, Tyndall Ctr Climate Change Res, Southampton SO17 1BJ, Hants, England. ETH, Dept Environm Sci, CH-8092 Zurich, Switzerland. Finnish Environm Inst, Helsinki 00251, Finland. Univ Barcelona, Ctr Ecol Res & Forestry Applicat, Barcelona 08193, Spain. Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe, Inst Meteorol & Climate Res, D-82467 Garmisch Partenkirchen, Germany. Rothamsted Res, Agr & Environm Div, Harpenden AL5 2JQ, Herts, England. Univ Grenoble 1, CNRS, Lab Ecol Alpine, F-38041 Grenoble, France. CNRS, Ctr Ecol Fonct & Evolut, F-34033 Montpellier, France. European Forest Inst, Joensuu 80100, Finland. Univ E Anglia, Tyndall Ctr Climate Change Res, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. Univ Catholique Louvain, Dept Geog, B-1348 Louvain, Belgium. Lund Univ, Dept Phys Geog & Ecosyst Anal, S-22362 Lund, Sweden. Univ Aberdeen, Sch Biol Sci, Aberdeen AB24 3UU, Scotland. S African Natl Biodivers Inst, Kirstenbosch Res Ctr, ZA-7735 Cape Town, South Africa. RP Schroter, D, Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res, D-14473 Potsdam, Germany. AB Global change will alter the supply of ecosystem services that are vital for human well-being. To investigate ecosystem service supply during the 21st century, we used a range of ecosystem models and scenarios of climate and land-use change to conduct a Europe-wide assessment. Large changes in climate and land use typically resulted in large changes in ecosystem service supply. Some of these trends may be positive (for example, increases in forest area and productivity) or offer opportunities (for example, "surplus land" for agricultural extensification and bioenergy production). However, many changes increase vulnerability as a result of a decreasing supply of ecosystem services (for example, declining soil fertility, declining water availability, increasing risk of forest fires), especially in the Mediterranean and mountain regions. CR *MILL EC ASS, 2003, EC HUM WELL BEING FR *UN ENV PROGR, 2002, 3 UNEP EARTHSC *WORLD TOUR ORG, 2003, 1 INT C CLIM CHANG T ARNELL NW, 2004, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V14, P31 ELSASSER H, 2001, MT RES DEV, V21, P335 EWERT F, 2005, AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON, V107, P101 FALKENMARK M, 1989, NAT RESOUR FORUM, V13, P258 FANG CM, 2005, NATURE, V433, P57 FOLEY JA, 2005, SCIENCE, V309, P570 GOTTFRIED M, 1999, DIVERS DISTRIB, V5, P241 HOOPER DU, 2005, ECOL MONOGR, V75, P3 KNORR W, 2005, NATURE, V433, P298 MCGUIRE AD, 2001, GLOBAL BIOGEOCHEM CY, V15, P183 NABUURS GJ, 2003, GLOBAL CHANGE BIOL, V9, P152 NAKICENOVIC N, 2000, INTERGOVERNMENTAL PA PALMER M, 2004, SCIENCE, V304, P1251 REID WV, 2005, MILLENNIUM ECOSYSTEM ROUNSEVELL MDA, 2005, AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON, V107, P117 SALA OE, 2000, SCIENCE, V287, P1770 SCHULZE ED, 2005, NATURE, V437, P205 THUILLER W, 2004, GLOBAL CHANGE BIOL, V10, P2020 THUILLER W, 2005, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V102, P8245 WALTHER GR, 2002, NATURE, V416, P389 ZIERL B, 2005, WATER RESOUR RES, V41 NR 24 TC 19 J9 SCIENCE BP 1333 EP 1337 PY 2005 PD NOV 25 VL 310 IS 5752 GA 988KN UT ISI:000233600200043 ER PT J AU OBrien, KL Sygna, L Haugen, JE TI Vulnerable or resilient? A multi-scale assessment of climate impacts and vulnerability in Norway SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 Univ Oslo, CICERO, N-0318 Oslo, Norway. Norwegian Meteorol Inst, N-0313 Oslo, Norway. RP OBrien, KL, Univ Oslo, CICERO, POB 1129, N-0318 Oslo, Norway. AB This paper explores the issue of climate vulnerability in Norway, an affluent country that is generally considered to be resilient to the impacts of climate change. In presenting a multiscale assessment of climate change impacts and vulnerability in Norway, we show that the concept of vulnerability depends on the scale of analysis. Both exposure and the distribution of climate sensitive sectors vary greatly across scale. So do the underlying social and economic conditions that influence adaptive capacity. These findings question the common notion that climate change may be beneficial for Norway, and that the country can readily adapt to climate change. As scale differences are brought into consideration, vulnerability emerges within some regions, localities, and social groups. To cope with actual and potential changes in climate and climate variability, it will be necessary to acknowledge climate vulnerabilities at the regional and local levels, and to address them accordingly. This multi-scale assessment of impacts and vulnerability in Norway reinforces the importance of scale in global change research. CR 2000, COUNTY STAT HORDALAN *ECON, 2000, MAR FAIR 1 *ENV CAN, 1998, CAN COUNTR STUD CLIM *GOV CAN, 2001, CAN 3 NAT REP CLIM C *NAT OFF BUILD TEC, 1993, 1992 HURR DAM BUILD *NORW DIR NAT MAN, 1990, 19901 DN NORW DIR NA *NORW MIN AGR, 1998, DOZ FACTS NORW AGR A *NORW MIN ENV, 1991, GREENH EFF IMP MIT *NORW MIN FIN, 2002, INF KINGD NORW NORW *NORW MIN FOR AFF, 2002, NAT STRAT SUST DEV *NORW MIN LOC GOV, 2001, DISTR REG POL *NOU, 1996, COMP COMP ENV *NOU, 1996, MEAS FLOOD *NOU, 2000, STRAT EMPL FORM VAL *STAT NORW, 1999, POP PROJ NAT REG SCE *STAT NORW, 2000, NAT RES ENV 2000 *STAT NORW, 2001, STAT YB *UNDP, 2002, HUM DEV REP 2002 *UNEP, 1999, GEO 2000 UNEPS MILL *WORLD BANK, 2002, GLOB DEV FIN WORLD D ADGER WN, 2001, J INT DEV, V13, P921 ADGER WN, 2002, AMBIO, V31, P358 ALBERT PS, 1991, PSYCHIAT RES, V36, P51 ALLEN MR, 2000, NATURE, V407, P617 ANISIMOV O, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, P801 AUNAN K, 2003, IN PRESS J COASTAL R BAKKEHOI S, 1979, EXTREME WEATHER EVEN BENESTAD R, 2000, CICERONE, V6, P29 BENESTAD RE, 2002, CLIMATE RES, V21, P105 BERKES F, 2002, DRAMA COMMONS, P293 BJORGE D, 2000, 103 DNMI BOGSTAD B, 1994, ICES J MAR SCI, V51, P273 BOHLE HG, 1994, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V4, P37 BORNEHAG CG, 2001, INDOOR AIR, V11, P72 BRAATHEN GO, 1990, GREENHOUSE EFFECT CL CAPLAN AJ, 1999, J ENVIRON ECON MANAG, V37, P256 CARPENTER SR, 2001, ECOSYSTEMS, V4, P765 CHRISTENSEN JH, 2001, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V28, P1003 DAVIES R, 2001, NATURE, V410, P917 DICKSON RR, 1999, OCEAN LIFE ATLANTIC, P92 DIPPNER JW, 1997, DT HYDROGR Z, V49, P277 DOW KM, 1992, GEOFORUM, V23, P417 EIDE A, 2001, FISH RES, V1275, P1 EIKELAND S, 2000, REGIONAL DEV 1990S R FISCHER G, 2001, GLOBAL AGROECOLOGICA FOLKE C, 2002, AMBIO, V31, P437 FORSBERG EM, 2000, NORWEGIAN FISHERIES GIBSON CC, 2000, ECOL ECON, V32, P217 GLANTZ MH, 1998, SOC RESPONSES REGION HAGLEROD A, 1990, CONSEQUENCES INCREAS HANSFORD JR, 2000, COMP MET WATER RES, V4, P3 HANSSENBAUER I, 1999, TEMPERATURE PRECIPIT, P47 HANSSENBAUER I, 2001, 1001 DNMI HAUGEN JE, 1999, 20 YEAR CLIMATE CHAN HESSEN DO, 1993, IMPACT CLIMATIC CHAN, P154 HOLTEDAHL O, 1960, GEOLOGY NORWAY HOLTEN JI, 1993, IMPACTS CLIMATE CHAN HOLTEN JI, 1993, IMPACTS CLIMATIC CHA, P84 HOUGHTON JT, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 HULME M, 2000, ASSESSMENT POTENTIAL, P47 INGVALDSEN T, 1994, 163 NBI IVERSEN T, 1997, REGCLIM REGIONAL CLI KASPERSON RE, 2001, GLOBAL ENV RISK, P247 KENT ML, DIS SEAWATER NETPEN KOENIG U, 1997, J SUSTAINABLE TOURIS, V5, P46 LEHTONEN H, 1996, FISHERIES MANAGEMENT, V3, P59 LINDKVIST KB, 1996, NORSK GEOGR TIDSSKR, V50, P171 LISO KR, 2002, CLIMATE 2000 BUILDIN LISO KR, 2003, BUILD RES INF, V31, P200 LIVERMAN DM, 2001, GLOBAL ENV RISK, P201 LOENG H, 1995, CANADIAN SPECIAL PUB, V121, P691 LOENG H, 2001, REPORT ARCTIC CLIMAT MARIUSSEN A, 1998, BARENTS SEA IMPACT S MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 MCLEAN RF, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, P343 NAKKEN O, 1987, FISH RES, V5, P243 NERSTEN NK, 2001, VISION NORWEGIAN AGR OBRIEN CM, 2000, NATURE, V404, P142 OBRIEN KL, 2000, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V10, P221 OBRIEN KL, 2003, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V93, P89 OTTERSEN G, 1998, ICES J MAR SCI, V55, P67 OTTERSEN G, 2001, OECOLOGIA, V128, P1 OVERLAND EF, 2000, NORGE 2030 5 SCENARI PARRY ML, 1998, CLIMATE IMPACT ADAPT PARRY ML, 2000, ASSESSMENT POTENTIAL RAISANEN J, 2001, J CLIMATE, V14, P2088 SAELTHUN NR, 1998, CLIMATE CHANGE IMPAC SAKSHAUG E, 1994, POLAR BIOL, V14, P405 SCHNEIDER S, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, P75 SKAUGEN TE, 2002, 102 DNMI KLIMA NORW SKAUGEN TE, 2002, 202 DNMI KLIMA SMIT B, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P223 SMITHERS J, 1997, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V7, P129 SOYLAND V, 2002, FOLA 2002 LANDBRUKSP SUBAK S, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V44, P1 VELLINGA M, 2002, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V54, P251 WATSON RT, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, V1, P1 YOUNG OR, 2002, DRAMA COMMONS, P263 NR 98 TC 1 J9 CLIMATIC CHANGE BP 193 EP 225 PY 2004 PD MAY VL 64 IS 1-2 GA 813ST UT ISI:000220927500011 ER PT J AU Burton, I Huq, S Lim, B Pilifosova, O Schipper, EL TI From impacts assessment to adaptation priorities: the shaping of adaptation policy SO CLIMATE POLICY LA English DT Review C1 Int Inst Environm & Dev, Climate Change Programme, London WC1H 0DD, England. Meteorol Serv Canada, Toronto, ON, Canada. UNDP GEF, Natl Commun Support Programme, New York, NY USA. UNFCCC Secretariat, Bonn, Germany. Univ E Anglia, Sch Dev Studies, Norwich, Norfolk, England. Univ E Anglia, Tyndall Ctr Climate Change Res, Norwich, Norfolk, England. RP Huq, S, Int Inst Environm & Dev, Climate Change Programme, 3 Endsleigh St, London WC1H 0DD, England. AB Under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), adaptation has recently gained importance, yet adaptation is much less developed than mitigation as a policy response. Adaptation research has been used to help answer to related but distinct questions. (1) To what extent can adaptation reduce impacts of climate change? (2) What adaptation policies are needed, and how can they best be developed, applied and funded? For the first question, the emphasis is on the aggregate value of adaptation so that this may be used to estimate net impacts. An important purpose is to compare net impacts with the costs of mitigation. In the second question, the emphasis is on the design and prioritisation of adaptation policies and measures. While both types of research are conducted in a policy context, they differ in their character, application, and purpose. The impacts/mitigation research is orientated towards the physical and biological science of impacts and adaptation, while research on the ways and means of adaptation is focussed on the social and economic determinants of vulnerability in a development context. The main purpose of this paper is to demonstrate how the national adaptation studies carried under the UNFCCC are broadening the paradigm, from the impacts/mitigation to vulnerability/adaptation. For this to occur, new policy research is needed. While the broad new directions of both research and policy can now be discerned, there remain a number of outstanding issues to be considered. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *ENB, 2001, SUMMARY INTERREGIONA MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 *NCSP, 2000, WORKSH REP THEM REG *NCSP, 2000, WORKSH REP THEM WORK *UNEP, 2001, VULNERABILITY INDICE *WORLD BANK, 2000, 21104BD WORLD BANK R *WORLD BANK, 2000, AD CLIM CHANG CIT SE, V4 APUULI B, 2000, ENVIRON MONIT ASSESS, V61, P145 BURTON I, 2001, ADAPTATION POLICY FR CARTER TR, 1994, IPCC TECHNICAL GUIDE CLARK WC, 2000, ASSESSING VULNERABIL FEENSTRA JF, 1998, HDB METHODS CLIMATE HULME M, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE SO AF KELLY PM, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V47, P325 KLEIN RJT, 1999, AMBIO, V28, P182 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 OBRIEN KL, 2000, 200002 CICERO PARRY ML, 1998, CLIMATE IMPACT ADAPT RIBOT JC, 1996, CLIMATE VARIABILITY, V1, P1 ROSENZWEIG C, 1994, NATURE, V367, P133 SMIT B, 2001, IPCC 2 ASSESSMENT RE, CH18 SMITH JB, 2001, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V50, P1 WATSON RT, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, V1, P1 NR 23 TC 8 J9 CLIM POLICY BP 145 EP 159 PY 2002 PD SEP VL 2 IS 2-3 GA 626TB UT ISI:000179888400003 ER PT J AU Karim, Z Hussain, SG Ahmed, M TI Assessing impacts of climatic variations on foodgrain production in Bangladesh SO WATER AIR AND SOIL POLLUTION LA English DT Article RP Karim, Z, BANGLADESH AGR RES COUNCIL,FARM GATE,NEW AIRPORT RD,DHAKA 1215,BANGLADESH. AB A simulation study was conducted to assess the vulnerability of foodgrain production in Bangladesh to potential climate change. Simulation runs were made for high yield varieties of rice for Aus (March-August), Aman (July-November), and Bore (February-July), the traditional growing seasons, using the CERES-Rice model. Simulation runs were made for wheat, which is grown from November through March using the CERES-Wheat model. Three scenarios (baseline, Canadian Climate Centre Model, and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory) and sensitivity analyses for temperature increases of 2 and 4 degrees C at three levels of CO2 (330, 580, and 660 ppm) were used. In the simulation, increased CO2 levels increased rice yields over baseline, and considerable spatial and temporal variations were noted. Higher temperatures reduced the yields in almost all study locations and in all seasons, and it was particularly pronounced with a 4 degrees C increase. The detrimental effect of temperature rise was observed even with increased CO2 levels. Wheat yields increased with increased CO2 level in all three locations. The adverse effects of increased temperature were more pronounced for wheat than for rice at all levels of increased CO,. In the scenarios of the Canadian Climate Centre Model and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, both rice and wheat yields were decreased (35% and 31%, respectively) over baseline in all seasons, especially in the Aus season, and in all locations. The adverse effects of the climate under the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory scenario were more pronounced for wheat than for rice. The greatest reductions in aggregated production for both crops were noted at 330 ppm CO, with a 4 degrees C temperature rise. The greatest increases in aggregated production for rice and wheat were observed at a 660 ppm CO2 with no temperature increase. CR *BARC, 1991, AGR DAT *BARI, 1986, 1986 BARI WHEAT RES *BARI, 1987, 198788 BARI, P1 *BARI, 1988, 198889 BARI, P3 *BARI, 1989, 198990 BARI, P1 *BBS, 1993, YB AGR STAT BANGL 19 *BRRI, 1981, BRRI PUB, V50, P6 *BRRI, 1984, BRRI PUB, V71, P14 *BRRI, 1985, BRRI PUB, V71, P7 *BRRI, 1985, BRRI PUB, V79, P4 *BRRI, 1985, BRRI PUB, V80, P6 *BRRI, 1985, BRRI PUB, V81, P7 *BRRI, 1991, BRRI PUB, V98, P5 *BRRI, 1991, BRRI PUBL, V5 *CSE, 1995, CSE ORG S AS REG WOR, P1 *UNDP FAO, 1971, 3 UNDPFAO *USDA, 1995, USDA HDB, V436 *WORLD BANK, 1990, BANGL MAN ADJ PROC A BOER GJ, 1992, J CLIMATE, V5, P1045 HUNT LA, 1993, AGRON J, V85, P1090 JODHA NS, 1989, GREENHOUSE WARMING A, P147 JOSHUA WD, 1983, PHYSICAL PROPERTIES KARIM Z, 1995, CLIMATE CHANGE WORLD, P307 MAHTAB FU, 1987, EFFECTS CLIMATE CHAN MAHTAB FU, 1992, AMBIO, V21, P50 MITCHELL JFB, 1990, CLIMATE CHANGE IPCC ROSENZWEIG C, 1990, INT CLIM CHANG CROP, P20 SAKATE T, 1978, J CROP SCI, V47, P6 TSUJI GY, 1994, DSSAT VERSION 3 0 NR 29 TC 3 J9 WATER AIR SOIL POLLUT BP 53 EP 62 PY 1996 PD SEP VL 92 IS 1-2 GA VM538 UT ISI:A1996VM53800007 ER PT J AU Locke, C Adger, WN Kelly, PM TI Changing places: Migration's social and environmental consequences SO ENVIRONMENT LA English DT Article C1 Univ E Anglia, Sch Dev Studies, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. Univ E Anglia, Climat Res Unit, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. RP Locke, C, Univ E Anglia, Sch Dev Studies, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. CR *UN DEV PROGR, 1998, DYN INT MIGR VIETN *UNDP, 1998, HUM DEV REP ADGER WN, IN PRESS PROGR HUMAN, V24 ADGER WN, 2000, ENV SCI ENV MANAGEME, P149 AMACHER GS, 1998, LAND ECON, V74, P92 CAROTHERS T, 1999, FOREIGN POLICY WIN, P18 CASTLES S, 1999, INT MIGR, V37, P5 CHANT S, 1992, GENDER MIGRATIO DEV CORBETT J, 1988, WORLD DEV, V16, P1099 CROOK N, 1997, PRINCIPLES POPULATIO CUTTER SL, 1996, PROG HUM GEOG, V20, P529 DANG A, 1997, INT MIGR REV, V31, P312 DEHAUWER C, 1999, CYTOMETRY, V36, P1 DIGREGORIO M, 1997, EUR 3 BIANN C CTR AS DRAKAKISSMITH D, 1996, URBAN STUD, V33, P673 DRAKAKISSMITH, 2000, LIVING ENV CHANGE SO ELLIS F, 1998, J DEV STUD, V35, P1 GOLDSTEIN A, 1997, POP STUD-J DEMOG, V51, P75 HARRISS J, 1997, J INT DEV, V9, P919 HARTMANN B, 1998, ENVIRON URBAN, V10, P113 JODHA NS, 1975, ECON POLIT WEEKLY, V10, P1619 KATES RW, 1992, ENVIRONMENT MAY, P4 LINDAHLKIESSLIN.K, 1994, POPULATION EC DEV EN, P199 LUONG HV, 1992, REVOLUTION VILLAGE T MCDOWELL C, 1997, 65 I DEV STUD MCGUIRE S, 1998, ADV NURS SCI, V21, P1 MCMICHAEL AJ, 1993, PLANETARY OVERLOAD G MCNICOLL, 1990, POPULATION DEV REV, V16, P85 NORD M, 1998, J REGIONAL SCI, V38, P329 PARNWALL M, 1993, POPULATION MOVEMENTS PAULSON DD, 1993, GEOGR REV, V83, P43 PEBLEY AR, 1998, DEMOGRAPHY, V35, P377 PETTENELLA D, 1995, COMMON PROPERTY RESO, V33, P7 PINGALI PL, 1997, FOOD POLICY, V22, P345 QUY V, 1997, 3 EUR BIANN C U AMST RAMBO AT, 1995, CHALLENGES HIGHLANDS RUITENBEEK HJ, 1996, ECOL ECON, V17, P49 STARK O, 1991, MIGRATION LABOR TAYLOR JE, 1999, INT MIGR, V37, P63 THRIFT N, 1986, PRICE WAR URBANISATI TIMMER CP, 1993, CHALLENGE REFORM IND, P183 TODARO MP, 1981, EC DEV 3 WORLD TRAGER L, 1998, AFRICA, V68, P360 WATTS MJ, 1993, PROG HUM GEOG, V17, P43 WOOLCOCK M, 1998, THEOR SOC, V27, P151 YANG XS, 1996, EUR J POPUL, V12, P195 NR 46 TC 4 J9 ENVIRONMENT BP 24 EP 35 PY 2000 PD SEP VL 42 IS 7 GA 341YX UT ISI:000088619500004 ER PT J AU Tran, LT Knight, CG O'Neill, RV Smith, ER TI Integrated environmental assessment of the Mid-Atlantic Region with analytical network process SO ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING AND ASSESSMENT LA English DT Article C1 Florida Atlantic Univ, Dept Geog & Geol, Boca Raton, FL 33431 USA. Penn State Univ, Dept Geog, University Pk, PA 16802 USA. TN & Associates, Oak Ridge, TN 37830 USA. US EPA, Off Res & Dev, Natl Exposure Res Lab, Res Triangle Pk, NC 27711 USA. RP Tran, LT, Florida Atlantic Univ, Dept Geog & Geol, 777 Glades Rd, Boca Raton, FL 33431 USA. AB A decision analysis method for integrating environmental indicators was developed. This was a combination of Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and the Analytic Network Process (ANP). Being able to take into account the interdependency among variables, the method was capable of ranking ecosystems in terms of environmental conditions and suggesting cumulative impacts across a large region. Using data on land cover, population, roads, streams, air pollution, and topography of the Mid-Atlantic Region of the United States, we were able to point out areas which were in relatively poor condition and/or vulnerable to future deterioration regarding various environmental aspects. The method offered an easy and comprehensive way to combine the strengths of conventional multivariate statistics (PCA) and decision-making science tool (ANP) for integrated environmental assessment. CR 1998, FED REG, V63, P26846 *USGS, 1982, 878A USGS ALPHONCE CB, 1997, AGR SYST, V53, P97 BOUGHTON DA, 1999, ECOSYST HEALTH, V5, P312 CALAIS MD, 1996, J AIR WASTE MANAGEME, V46, P414 CHATFIELD C, 1980, INTRO MULTIVARIATE A DEANGELIS DL, 1990, J GREAT LAKES RES, V16, P576 EVERITT BS, 1992, APPL MULTIVARIATE DA HOTELLING H, 1933, J EDUC PSYCHOL, V24, P417 JOBSON JD, 1992, APPL MULTIVARIRATE D, V2, P731 JONES KB, 1997, EPA600R97130 OFF RES KARR JR, 1986, SPECIAL PUBLICATION, V5 KARR JR, 1991, ECOL APPL, V1, P66 LEWIS R, 1989, APPL ANAL HIERARCHY LOCANTORE NW, 2004, ENVIRON MONIT ASSESS, V94, P249 MUMMOLO G, 1996, J ENVIRON SYST, V24, P445 ONEILL RV, 1997, BIOSCIENCE, V47, P513 ONEILL RV, 1999, ECOSYST HEALTH, V5, P225 OTT WR, 1978, ENV INDICES THEORY P PEARSON K, 1901, PHILOS MAG, V2, P559 RACHDAWONG P, 1997, ENVIRON SCI TECHNOL, V31, P2686 RAMANATHAN R, 1995, SOCIO ECON PLAN SCI, V29, P197 RENCHER AC, 1995, METHODS MULTIVARIATE, P627 RIITTERS KH, 1997, BIOL CONSERV, V81, P191 SAATY TL, 1980, ANAL HIERARCHY PROCE SAATY TL, 1986, SOCIO ECON PLAN SCI, V20, P327 SAATY TL, 2001, DECISION MAKING DEPE STATHEROPOULOS M, 1998, ATMOS ENVIRON, V32, P1087 SUTER GW, 1993, ENVIRON TOXICOL CHEM, V12, P1533 TOPALIAN ML, 1999, B ENVIRON CONTAM TOX, V63, P484 TRAN LT, 2002, ENVIRON MANAGE, V29, P845 VARIS O, 1989, J ENVIRON MANAGE, V28, P283 WICKHAM JD, 1997, PHOTOGRAMM ENG REM S, V63, P397 WICKHAM JD, 1999, ENVIRON MANAGE, V24, P553 YU CC, 1998, J ENVIRON MANAGE, V53, P101 YU TY, 2000, ATMOS ENVIRON, V34, P4499 NR 36 TC 0 J9 ENVIRON MONIT ASSESS BP 263 EP 277 PY 2004 PD JUN VL 94 IS 1-3 GA 775UE UT ISI:000189078400019 ER PT J AU Blanco, AVR TI Local initiatives and adaptation to climate change SO DISASTERS LA English DT Article C1 Both ENDS, Strateg Cooperat, NL-1018 VC Amsterdam, Netherlands. RP Blanco, AVR, Both ENDS, Strateg Cooperat, Nieuwe Keizersgracht 45, NL-1018 VC Amsterdam, Netherlands. AB Climate change is expected to lead to an increase in the number and strength of natural hazards produced by climatic events. This paper presents some examples of the experiences of community-based organisations (CBOs) and non-governmental organisations (NGOs) of variations in climate, and looks at how they have incorporated their findings into the design and implementation of local adaptation strategies. Local organisations integrate climate change and climatic hazards into the design and development of their projects as a means of adapting to their new climatic situation. Projects designed to boost the resilience of local livelihoods are good examples of local adaptation strategies. To upscale these adaptation initiatives, there is a need to improve information exchange between CBOs, NGOs and academia. Moreover, there is a need to bridge the gap between scientific and local knowledge in order to create projects capable of withstanding stronger natural hazards. CR *IPCC, 2001, CLIM CHANG 2001 SCI MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 BLANCO RAV, 2004, COMPREHENSIVE EVN PR GUPTA J, 1997, INT ENVIRON AFFAIR, V9, P289 JASANOFF S, 1997, THIRD WORLD Q, V18, P579 PIELKE RA, 1998, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V8, P159 SMIT B, 1999, MITIGATION ADAPTATIO, V4, P199 NR 7 TC 0 J9 DISASTERS BP 140 EP 147 PY 2006 PD MAR VL 30 IS 1 GA 017LA UT ISI:000235693900010 ER PT J AU Thomson, AJ TI Elicitation and representation of Traditional Ecological Knowledge, for use in forest management SO COMPUTERS AND ELECTRONICS IN AGRICULTURE LA English DT Article C1 Forestry Canada, Pacific Forestry Ctr, Victoria, BC V8S 4N4, Canada. RP Thomson, AJ, Forestry Canada, Pacific Forestry Ctr, 506 W Burnside Rd, Victoria, BC V8S 4N4, Canada. AB Canadian aboriginal (First Nations) groups wish not only to preserve their heritage, but also to see that heritage given its proper place in decisions that affect the land. Each community is unique in the diversity of problems and concerns that it faces. Modern knowledge-based systems permit customized solutions to complex issues, but there is currently no good method of representing traditional knowledge in the computer, in a way that helps the needs of communities to be individually addressed. Most traditional knowledge information is presented in anecdotal form and is therefore difficult to classify and analyze. Elicitation, representation and use of knowledge is a major area of research in the field of Artificial Intelligence, leading to development of knowledge bases and expert systems. The present study describes the elicitation and representation of the traditional knowledge from bands belonging to the Nicola Tribal Association in British Columbia. The study aims at representing the interaction of community and environment in a manner that can be used to show the differences among communities. This paper focuses on the relationship of the traditional knowledge to modern forest management. Crown Copyright (C) 2000 Published by Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. CR 1993, ASSESSMENT INDIAN FO AKENHEAD SA, 1996, P EC 96 LAK BUEN VIS, P399 BENFER RA, 1990, AI APPLICATIONS, V4, P19 BERKES F, 1993, TRADITIONAL ECOLOGIC, P1 BLAIKIE PM, 1994, RISK NATURAL HAZARDS, V1, P1 HOLLING CS, 1978, ADAPTIVE ENV ASSESSM JOHNSON M, 1992, LORE CAPTURING TRADI MCDONALD M, 1988, TRADITIONAL KNOWLEDG, P65 ROSS R, 1992, DANCING GHOST EXPLOR SADLER B, 1994, TRADITIONAL ECOLOGIC, P5 SAVAGE B, 1997, WG JOHN CANDIDATE AF STEVENSON MA, 1997, POLICY OPTIONS, V18, P25 STEVENSON MG, 1996, ARCTIC, V49, P278 THOMSON AJ, 1993, AI APPLICATIONS, V7, P61 THOMSON AJ, 1996, AI APPLICATIONS, V10, P1 THOMSON AJ, 1997, AI APPLICATIONS, V11, P69 THOMSON AJ, 2000, IN PRESS COMPUT ELEC WALTERS CJ, 1986, ADAPTIVE MANAGEMENT NR 18 TC 1 J9 COMPUT ELECTRON AGRIC BP 155 EP 165 PY 2000 PD JUN VL 27 IS 1-3 GA 331FT UT ISI:000088008200011 ER PT J AU Maciver, DC Wheaton, E TI Tomorrow's forests: Adapting to a changing climate SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 Meteorol Serv Canada, Downsview, ON M3H 5T4, Canada. Saskatchewan Res Council, Saskatoon, SK S7N 2X8, Canada. RP Maciver, DC, Meteorol Serv Canada, 4905 Dufferin St, Downsview, ON M3H 5T4, Canada. AB Today's forests are largely viewed as a natural asset, growing in a climate envelope, which favors natural regeneration of species that have adapted and survived the variability's of past climates. However, human-induced climate change, variability and extremes are no longer a theoretical concept. It is a real issue affecting all biological systems. Atmospheric scientists, using global climate models, have developed scenarios of the future climate that far exceed the traditional climate envelope and their associated forest management practices. Not all forests are alike, nor do they share the same adaptive life cycles, feedbacks and threats. Much of tomorrow's forests will become farmed forests, managed in a pro-active, designed and adaptive envelope, to sustain multiple products, values and services. Given the life cycle of most forest species, forest management systems will need to radically adjust their limits of knowledge and adaptive strategies to initiate, enhance and plan forests in relative harmony with the future climate. Protected Areas (IUCN), Global Biosphere Reserves (UNESCO) and Smithsonian Institution sites provide an effective community-based platform to monitor changes in forest species, ecosystems and biodiversity under changing climatic conditions. CR *IPCC, 1997, IPCC ADAPTATION EXPE CARTER T, 1994, IPCC TECHNICAL GUIDE CARTER T, 1996, TECHNICAL GUIDELINES CHARLES C, 1998, NATURE, V394, P422 DALLMEIER E, 1992, LONG TERM MONITORING EBBESMEYER CC, 1990, P 7 ANN PAC CLIM WOR, V26, P115 GEDALOF Z, 1999, ADAPTATION LESSONS B, P49 GOULD SJ, 1977, EVER SINCE DARWIN HOLLING CS, 1994, EVERGLADES ECOSYSTEM, P741 MACIVER DC, 1998, ENVIRON MONIT ASSESS, V49, P177 MACIVER DC, 2000, P 14 AMS C BIOM AER SMIT B, 1999, MITIGATION ADAPTATIO, V4, P199 SMITHERS J, 1997, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V7, P129 STANKEY GH, 2001, TOO EARLY TELL TOO L WATSON RT, 1998, REGIONAL IMPACTS CLI, V1, P1 WATSON RT, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, V1, P1 WHEATON EE, 1999, MITIGATION ADAPTATIO, V4, P215 NR 17 TC 0 J9 CLIMATIC CHANGE BP 273 EP 282 PY 2005 PD MAY VL 70 IS 1-2 GA 942EG UT ISI:000230265100013 ER PT J AU STEEL, BS SODEN, DL WARNER, RL TI THE IMPACT OF KNOWLEDGE AND VALUES ON PERCEPTIONS OF ENVIRONMENTAL RISK TO THE GREAT-LAKES SO SOCIETY & NATURAL RESOURCES LA English DT Article C1 UNIV NEVADA,DEPT POLIT SCI,LAS VEGAS,NV 89154. RP STEEL, BS, OREGON STATE UNIV,DEPT POLIT SCI,CORVALLIS,OR 97330. AB Citizen attitudes concerning the potential hazards of environmental pollution are believed to be influenced by various factors. Some observers focus on the level of education and policy-relevant knowledge obtaining among the public as predictors of environmental risk perceptions. Others have argued that level of education and knowledge are largely unrelated to risk perceptions. These scholars focus on the symbolic nature of environmental issues and highlight the importance of the underlying influence of political and social value orientations on the perception of environmental risk. This study explores how public perceptions of risk associated with industrial pollution in the Great Lakes are affected by policy-relevant knowledge and political value orientations. Findings suggest that value orientations are stronger predictors of environmental risk perceptions than knowledge. CR *CONS F, 1990, GREAT LAK GREAT LEG *CTR GREAT LAK, 1989, GREEAT LAK FACTS *CTR GREAT LAK, 1990, GREAT LAK REP, V7, P3 ASHWORTH W, 1986, LATE GREAT LAKES ENV BURTON I, 1978, ENV HAZARD, V1, P1 CARROLL JE, 1986, NAT RESOUR J, V26, P207 CATTON WR, 1980, AM BEHAV SCI, V24, P15 COTGROVE S, 1981, BRIT J SOCIOL, V32, P92 DAKE K, 1989, DEC PLEN SER ADV RIS DONAHUE MJ, 1986, THESIS U MICHIGAN AN DORAN CF, 1984, FORGOTTEN PARTNERSHI DOUGLAS M, 1982, RISK CULTURE DUNLAP RE, 1978, J ENVIRON EDUC, V9, P10 DUNLAP RE, 1983, ENERGY MATERIAL RESO DUNLAP RE, 1984, SOC SCI QUART, V65, P1013 DWORSKY LB, 1986, NAT RESOUR J, V26, P291 GIBBINS R, 1985, CAN J POLIT SCI, V18, P577 HOROWITZ G, 1966, CANADIAN J EC POLITI, V32, P143 INGLEHART R, 1971, AM POLIT SCI REV, V65, P991 INGLEHART R, 1977, SILENT REVOLUTION INGLEHART R, 1990, CULTURE SHIFT ADV IN JASANOFF S, 1986, RISK MANAGEMENT POLI KARTEZ JD, 1989, APA J, P445 KLEINBAUM DG, 1978, APPLIED REGRESSION A KUKLINSKI JH, 1982, AM J POLIT SCI, V26, P615 KUNREUTHER H, 1978, LTD KNOWLEDGE INSURA LOVRICH NP, 1986, WOMEN POLITICS ACTIV MACMILLAN DAG, 1987, WATER INT, V12, P176 MAZMANIAN P, 1981, ENVIRON BEHAV, V13, P361 MCNEELY J, 1985, CULTURE CONSERVATION MILBRATH LW, 1984, ENV VANGUARD NEW SOC MILETI CM, 1975, HUMAN SYSTEMS EXTREM MILETI DM, 1975, NATURAL HAZARD WARNI ORIORDAN T, 1985, ENVIRON PLANN A, V17, P1431 PIERCE JC, 1986, WATER RESOURCES DEMO PILISUK M, 1987, SOC SCI J, V24, P403 PRESTHUS R, 1974, ELITES POLICY PROCES ROSENBAUM W, 1985, ENV POLITICS POLICY ROTHMAN S, 1987, AM POLIT SCI REV, V24, P883 SAARINEN TD, 1982, CULTIVATING USING HA SAMDAHL DM, 1989, ENVIRON BEHAV, V21, P57 SCHMIDT WE, 1989, NY TIMES 1012, P26 SIMS JH, 1983, ENVIRON BEHAV, V15, P165 SMITH SH, 1968, J FISH RES BOARD CAN, V25, P667 SONZOGNI WC, 1983, ENVIRON MANAGE, V7, P531 SORENSEN JH, 1983, ENVIRON BEHAV, V15, P438 STEEL BS, 1989, SOC SCI J, V26, P27 STEEL BS, 1990, PUBLIC POLICY CANADA STEGER MAE, 1987, 198M W POL SCI ASS M STEGER MAE, 1989, W POLITICAL Q, V42, P626 STEGER ME, 1989, POLITICAL BEHAVIOR, V11, P233 WALL G, 1986, ENV POLICIES INT REV WEITZMAN LJ, 1984, WOMEN FEMINIST PERSP WILLOUGHBY WR, 1979, JOINT ORG CANADA US NR 54 TC 14 J9 SOC NATUR RESOUR BP 331 EP 348 PY 1990 VL 3 IS 4 GA FN203 UT ISI:A1990FN20300003 ER PT J AU Attri, SD Rathore, LS TI Simulation of impact of projected climate change on wheat in India SO INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY LA English DT Article C1 Natl Ctr Medium Range Weather Forecasting, Applicat Div, New Delhi 110003, India. Indian Meteorol Dept, New Delhi, India. RP Rathore, LS, Natl Ctr Medium Range Weather Forecasting, Applicat Div, Mausam Bhavan Complex,Lodi Rd, New Delhi 110003, India. AB The problem of global climate change due to natural processes and anthropogenic sources and its impacts on world food security in general and its regional impacts in particular have come to forefront of the scientific community in recent years. Though the uncertainty of projected climate change at the regional level is higher, it is still necessary to assess its impacts on crop productivity for formulating response strategies. Climate change scenarios projected by the middle of the current century, based on the latest studies, were created and the impacts of concurrent changes of temperature and CO2 on the growth, development and yields of wheat in northwest India were quantified using a state-of-the-art dynamic simulation model. Yield enhancements of the order of 29-37% and 16-28% under tainted and irrigated conditions respectively in different genotypes were observed under a modified climate (T-max + 1.0degreesC, T-min + 1.5degreesC, 2 x CO2). Any further increase beyond 3degreesC cancelled the beneficial impact of enhanced CO2. Adaptation measures to mitigate the potential impact of climate change included possible changes in sowing dates and genotype selection. Enhancement of sowing by 10 days in late-sown cultivars and delaying of sowing by 10 days in normally sown cultivars resulted in higher yields under a modified climate, whereas a reduction in yield was observed in the reverse strategies. Copyright (C) 2003 Royal Meteorological Society. CR ABROL YP, 1991, IMPACT GLOBAL CLIMAT ADAMS RM, 1999, AGR GLOBAL CLIMATE C AGGARWAL PK, 1994, SIMULATING EFFECTS C ATTRI SD, 1999, P NAT WORKSH DYN CRO, P201 ATTRI SD, 2000, THESIS GJU HISAR HAR ATTRI SD, 2001, MAUSAM, V52, P561 CURE JD, 1986, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V38, P127 CURRY RB, 1990, BSSG WORKSH CROP SIM DHIMAN SD, 1985, HAR AGR UNI J RES, V15, P158 GIFFORD RM, 1988, AGRICULTURE, P506 HARVEY LDD, 1992, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V21, P17 HOOGENBOOM G, 1991, T ASAE IRRIGATION DR HOUGHTON JT, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995 HOUGHTON JT, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 HUNDAL SS, 1992, ANN PROGR REPORT LAL M, 1996, CURR SCI INDIA, V71, P746 LAL M, 1998, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V89, P1 LAL M, 1998, TERR ATMOS OCEAN SCI, V9, P673 LAL M, 1999, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V93, P53 LAMB PJ, 1987, B AM METEOROL SOC, V68, P1116 MATHAUDA SS, 1994, CLIM CHANG RIC S IRR MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 MEARNS LO, 1997, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V35, P367 MERTZ B, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 MORISON JIL, 1987, STOMATAL FUNCTION, P229 PEART RM, 1989, POTENTIAL EFFECTS GL PITTOCK AB, 1994, NATURE, V371, P25 RITCHIE JT, 1998, UNDERSTANDING OPTION, P79 ROGERS HH, 1983, J ENVIRON QUAL, V12, P569 ROSENZWEIG C, 1994, INTRO122 US EPA ROSENZWEIG C, 1994, USA324 US EPA SAINI AD, 1987, INDIAN J AGR SCI, V57, P351 SINHA SK, 1991, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V16, P33 SINHA SK, 1993, INT CROP SCI, V1, P281 TSUJI GY, 1994, DSSAT V3 WARRICK RA, 1986, GREENHOUSE EFFECT CL, P393 WIGLEY TML, 1987, EUR WORKSH INT BIOCL, P3142 NR 37 TC 0 J9 INT J CLIMATOL BP 693 EP 705 PY 2003 PD MAY VL 23 IS 6 GA 683RK UT ISI:000183163200006 ER PT J AU Gaffin, SR Rosenzweig, C Xing, XS Yetman, G TI Downscaling and geo-spatial gridding of socio-economic projections from the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) SO GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS LA English DT Article C1 Columbia Univ, Ctr Climate Syst Res, New York, NY 10025 USA. CIESIN, Palisades, NY 10964 USA. RP Gaffin, SR, Columbia Univ, Ctr Climate Syst Res, 2880 Broadway, New York, NY 10025 USA. AB A database has been developed containing downscaled socio-economic scenarios of future population and GDP at country level and on a geo-referenced gridscale. It builds on the recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES), but has been created independently of that report. The SRES scenarios are derived from projected data on economic, demographic, technological and land-use changes for the 21st century in a highly aggregated form consisting of four 9 world regions. Since analysts often need socio-economic data at higher spatial resolutions that are consistent with GCM climate scenarios, we undertook linear downscaling to 2100 of population and GDP to the country level of the aggregated SRES socioeconomic data for four scenario families: A1, A2, B1, B2. Using these country-level data, we also generated geo-spatial grids at 1/4degrees resolution (similar to30 km at the equator) for population "density" (people/unit land area) and for GDP "density" (GDP/unit land area) for two time slices, 1990 and 2025. This paper provides background information for the databases, including discussion of the data sources, downscaling methodology, data omissions, discrepancies with the SRES report, problems encountered, and areas needing further work. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *CIESIN, 2000, GRIDD POP WORLD GPW *SNA, 1993, SYST NAT ACC 1993 F *UN ENV PROGR, 2002, GLOB ENV OUTL 3 *UN, 1998, WORLD POP PROSP 1996 *UN, 2001, UN PUBL *UN, 2002, WORLD POP PROSP 2000 *US CENS BUR, 2002, STAT POP PROJ *WORLD BANK, 2000, WORLD DEV IND *WRI, 1997, WORLD RES 1996 97 ALCAMO J, 1998, GLOBAL CHANGE SCENAR ARNELL NW, 2004, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V14, P3 CASTLES I, 2003, ENERGY ENV, V14, P159 CASTLES I, 2003, ENERGY ENV, V4, P415 CASTLES I, 2003, IPCC ISSUES SWAG DOC DEVRIES B, 1999, ENERG POLICY, V27, P477 DEVRIES B, 2000, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V63, P137 DEVRIES HJM, 1994, WATER AIR SOIL POLL, V76, P79 DOLL CNH, 2000, AMBIO, V29, P157 EDMONDS JA, 1996, MITIGATION ADAPTATIO, V1, P311 ELVIDGE CD, 1997, GLOB CHANGE BIOL, V3, P387 ELVIDGE CD, 1997, INT J REMOTE SENS, V18, P1373 GABBOUR I, 1993, SPREADSHEET MODELS U, P69 GAFFIN SR, 1998, MITIGATION ADAPTATIO, V3, P133 GEWIN V, 2002, NATURE, V417, P112 GRUBLER A, 2001, NATURE, V412, P15 HAMMOND A, 1998, WHICH WORLD SCENARIO LUTZ W, 1996, FUTURE POPULATION WO MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 MESSNER S, 1995, WP95069 INT I APPL S MORI S, 1999, INT J GLOBAL ENERGY, V11, P1 MORITA T, 1994, CGER101194 NAT I ENV NAKICENOVIC N, 2000, SPECIAL REPORT EMISS NAKICENOVIC N, 2003, ENERGY ENV, V14 NAKICENOVIC N, 2003, ENERGY ENV, V14, P187 OLIVIER JGJ, 1996, 771060002 NAT I PUBL ONEILL B, 2001, POPUL BULL, V56, P3 PARRY ML, 2000, ASSESSMENT POTENTIAL PARRY ML, 2004, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V14, P53 PEPPER W, 1998, ENV SCI POLICY, V1, P289 PEPPER WJ, 1992, CLIMATE CHANGE 199 S PITTENGER D, 1976, PROJECTING STATE LOC PITTENGER DB, 1980, AM STAT, V34, P135 RIAHI K, 2000, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V63, P175 ROEHRL RA, 2000, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V63, P231 SACHS J, 2001, SCI AM MAR, P70 SMITH SK, 2001, STATE LOCAL POPULATI STRZEPEK K, 2001, INTEGRATED ASSESSMEN, V2, P139 SUTTON PC, 2002, ECOL ECON, V41, P509 NR 48 TC 0 J9 GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANGE BP 105 EP 123 PY 2004 PD JUL VL 14 IS 2 GA 830FP UT ISI:000222107400002 ER PT J AU Epstein, PR TI Climate change and emerging infectious diseases SO MICROBES AND INFECTION LA English DT Review C1 Harvard Univ, Sch Med, Ctr Hlth & Global Environm, Boston, MA 02115 USA. RP Epstein, PR, Harvard Univ, Sch Med, Ctr Hlth & Global Environm, 260 Longwood Ave, Boston, MA 02115 USA. AB The ranges of infectious diseases and vectors are changing in altitude, along with shifts in plant communities and the retreat of alpine glaciers. Additionally, extreme weather events create conditions conducive to 'clusters' of insect-, rodent- and water-borne diseases. Accelerating climate change carries profound threats for public health and society. (C) 2001 Editions scientifiques et medicales Elsevier SAS. CR *CLIVAR, 1992, STUD CLIM VAR PRED *I MED, 1992, EM INF MICR THREATS *IFRC RCS, 1999, WORLD DIS REP *WHO, 1996, WORLD HLTH REP 1996 ALBRITTON DI, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 BARRY JP, 1995, SCIENCE, V267, P672 BOUMA MJ, 1997, LANCET, V350, P1435 CHECKLEY W, 2000, LANCET, V355, P442 COLWELL RR, 1996, SCIENCE, V274, P2025 DASZAK P, 2000, SCIENCE, V287, P443 DEARBORN DG, 1999, ENVIRON HEALTH PE S3, V107, P495 DIAZ HF, 1996, NATURE, V383, P152 DOBSON A, 1993, LANCET, V342, P1096 DUCHIN JS, 1994, NEW ENGL J MED, V330, P949 EASTERLING DR, 1997, SCIENCE, V277, P363 EASTERLING DR, 2000, SCIENCE, V289, P2068 ELIAS JA, 1994, QUATERNARY INSECTS T ENGELTHALER DM, 1999, EMERG INFECT DIS, V5, P87 EPSTEIN PR, 1992, AM J PREV MED, V8, P263 EPSTEIN PR, 1995, AM J PUBLIC HEALTH, V85, P168 EPSTEIN PR, 1997, BIODIVERSITY HLTH EPSTEIN PR, 1998, B AM METEOROL SOC, V79, P409 EPSTEIN PR, 1999, SCIENCE, V285, P347 EPSTEIN PR, 2000, SCI AM, V283, P50 GILL CA, 1920, INDIAN J MED RES, V8, P618 GILL CA, 1921, INDIAN J MED RES, V8, P633 HARVELL CD, 1999, SCIENCE, V285, P1505 HOUGHTON JT, 1996, INTERGOVERNMENTAL PA HURRELL JW, 2001, SCIENCE, V291, P603 IRION R, 2001, SCIENCE, V291, P1690 KARL TR, 1995, CONSEQUENCES, V1, P3 KARL TR, 1995, NATURE, V377, P217 KARL TR, 1997, SCI AM MAY, P78 KOVATS RS, 1999, WHOSDEPHE994 KRABILL W, 1999, SCIENCE, V283, P1522 KREBS CJ, 1995, SCIENCE, V269, P1112 KUMAR KK, 1999, SCIENCE, V284, P2156 LEAF A, 1989, NEW ENGL J MED, V321, P1577 LEESON HS, 1939, B ENTOMOL RES, V30, P103 LEVITUS S, 2000, SCIENCE, V287, P2225 LINDGREN E, 2000, ENVIRON HEALTH PERSP, V108, P119 LINTHICUM KJ, 1999, SCIENCE, V285, P397 MACKENZIE WR, 1994, NEW ENGL J MED, V331, P161 MANN ME, 1998, NATURE, V392, P779 MARTENS WJM, 1997, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V35, P145 MARTIN PH, 1995, AMBIO, V24, P200 MATOSSIAN MK, 1989, POISONS PAST MOLDS E MCARTHUR RH, 1972, GEOGRAPHICAL ECOLOGY MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 MCMICHAEL AJ, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE HUMAN MONATH TP, 1987, AM J TROP MED HYG, V37, S40 MOSLEYTHOMPSON E, 1997, ANN M ASS AM GEOGR F PARK JM, 1999, PEDIATRICS 3, V104, P827 PARMESAN C, 1999, NATURE, V399, P579 PASCUAL M, 2000, SCIENCE, V289, P1766 PATZ JA, 1996, JAMA-J AM MED ASSOC, V275, P217 PAULI H, 1996, WORLD RESOURCE REV, V8, P382 PETERS RL, 1991, GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANG PETIT JR, 1999, NATURE, V399, P429 REITER P, 1998, LANCET, V351, P839 REITER P, 2000, EMERG INFECT DIS, V6, P1 ROGERS DJ, 2000, SCIENCE, V289, P1763 ROSENZWEIG C, 1998, CLIMATE CHANGE GLOBA, P101 ROSENZWEIG C, 2000, IMPLICATIONS CLIMATE ROTHROCK DA, 1999, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V26, P3469 SEVERINGHAUS JP, 1998, NATURE, V391, P141 THOMPSON LG, 1993, GLOBAL PLANET CHANGE, V7, P145 TRENBERTH KE, 1996, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V23, P57 TRENBERTH KE, 1999, CONSEQUENCES, V5, P3 TUDHOPE AW, 2001, SCIENCE, V291, P1511 ZISKA LH, 2000, WORLD RESOURCE REV, V12, P449 ZUCKER JR, 1996, EMERG INFECT DIS, V2, P37 NR 72 TC 7 J9 MICROBES INFECT BP 747 EP 754 PY 2001 PD JUL VL 3 IS 9 GA 464JJ UT ISI:000170529200008 ER PT J AU GAY, C MARTINEZ, J TI MITIGATION OF EMISSIONS OF GREENHOUSE GASES IN MEXICO SO INTERCIENCIA LA English DT Article RP GAY, C, SEMARNAP,NATL INST ECOL,RIO ELBA 20 PISO 14,MEXICO CITY 06500,DF,MEXICO. AB This paper gives an overview of results obtained by Mexican researchers on aspects of climate change including: inventories of greenhouse gas emissions, emissions scenarios, and vulnerability. The authors also suggest possible mitigation actions which may be adopted by Mexico. CR CONDE C, 1995, 2 REP GAY C, 1994, PROPUESTA PROGRAMA N MADEREY L, 1995, HYDROLOGY VULNERABIL MAGANA V, 1995, 4 REP MASERA O, 1995, 4 REP MASERA O, 1995, COMMUNICATION MENDOZA V, 1995, INVENTARIO EMISIONES OROPEZA O, 1995, 1 REP QUINTANILLA J, 1994, 4 REP VILLERS L, 1995, 6 COUNTR STUD REP VIQUEIRA LR, 1994, MEXICO ANTE CAMBIO C NR 11 TC 0 J9 INTERCIENCIA BP 336 EP & PY 1995 PD NOV-DEC VL 20 IS 6 GA TK173 UT ISI:A1995TK17300004 ER PT J AU Swart, RJ Robinson, JB Cohen, SJ TI Climate change and sustainable development: expanding the options SO CLIMATE POLICY LA English DT Article C1 Natl Inst Publ Hlth & Environm, IPCC Working Grp 3, RIVM, NL-3720 BA Bilthoven, Netherlands. Univ British Columbia, SDRI, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z2, Canada. Univ British Columbia, AIRG, Environm Canada, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z2, Canada. RP Swart, RJ, Natl Inst Publ Hlth & Environm, IPCC Working Grp 3, RIVM, POB 1, NL-3720 BA Bilthoven, Netherlands. AB Climate change and sustainable development have been addressed in largely separate circles in both research and policy. Nevertheless, there are strong linkages between the two in both realms. This paper focuses on the scientific linkages and discusses the opportunities they provide for integrated policy development, and the necessity to consider the risk of trade-offs. It is suggested that integration may not only provide new opportunities, but may even be a prerequisite for successfully addressing both issues. Since the feasibility of stabilising greenhouse gas concentrations is dependent on general socio-economic development paths, climate policy responses should be fully placed in the larger context of technological and socio-economic policy development rather than be viewed as an add-on to those broader policies. The arguments are supported by a range of examples for various economic sectors in the areas of both mitigation and adaptation, largely drawn from IPCC's Third Assessment Report. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *UNCED, 1992, AG 21 *UNEP, 2002, GLOB ENV OUTL, V3 *UNFCCC, 1992, UN FRAM CONV CLIM CH ABAZA H, 2002, IMPLEMENTING SUSTAIN ARNELL NW, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 BANURI T, 2001, SETTING STAGE CLIMAT BARKER T, 2001, SECTOR COSTS ANCILLA COHEN SJ, 1998, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V8, P341 GITAY H, 2001, ECOSYSTEMS THEIR GOO HARCOURT M, 1999, PLAN CANADA, V39, P12 HOURCADE JC, 2001, GLOBAL REGIONAL NATL KAUPPI P, 2001, TECHNOLOGICAL EC POT LEGGETT J, 1992, CLIMATE CHANGE 1992, P71 MARKANDYA A, 2002, CLIMATE CHANGE SUSTA MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 MCLEAN RF, 2002, COASTAL ZONES MARINE MCMICHAEL AJ, 2001, HUMAN HLTH METZ B, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 MOOMAW WR, 2001, TECHNOLOGICAL EC POT MORITA T, 2001, GREENHOUSE GAS EMISS MUNASINGHE M, 2001, INT J SUST DEV WORLD, V5, P1 NAKICENOVIC N, 2000, IPCC SPECIAL REPORT OLHOFF A, 2002, CLIMATE CHANGE SUSTA RAYNER S, 1998, HUMAN CHOICE CLIMATE RIP A, 1998, HUMAN CHOICE CLIMATE, V2, P327 ROBINSON JB, 1998, RECONCILING ECOLOGIC ROBINSON JB, 2000, INTEGRATING CLIMATE ROBINSON JB, 2001, INT J GLOBAL ENV ISS, V1, P130 ROBINSON JB, 2002, K HAMMOND LECT ENV E SHACKLEY S, 1995, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V5, P113 SHOVE E, 1998, HUMAN CHOICE CLIMATE, P271 SMIT B, 2001, ADAPTATION CLIMATE C THOMPSON M, 1998, HUMAN CHOICE CLIMATE, V1, P265 WATSON R, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 WATSON RT, 1998, PROTECTING OUR PLANE NR 35 TC 0 J9 CLIM POLICY BP S19 EP S40 PY 2003 VL 3 GA 761BN UT ISI:000187879500004 ER PT J AU Thomson, AM Brown, RA Rosenberg, NJ Izaurralde, RC Benson, V TI Climate change impacts for the conterminous USA: An integrated assessment - Part 3. Dryland production of grain and forage crops SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 Joint Global Change Res Inst, College Pk, MD 20740 USA. Independent Project Anal, Reston, VA 20190 USA. Univ Missouri, Food & Agr Policy Res Inst, Columbia, MO 65201 USA. RP Thomson, AM, Joint Global Change Res Inst, 8400 Baltimore Ave,Suite 201, College Pk, MD 20740 USA. AB Here we simulate dryland agriculture in the United States in order to assess potential future agricultural production under a set of general circulation model (GCM)-based climate change scenarios. The total national production of three major grain crops - corn, soybeans, and winter wheat - and two forage crops - alfalfa and clover hay - is calculated for the actual present day core production area (CPA) of each of these crops. In general, higher global mean temperature (GMT) reduces production and higher atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration ([CO2]) increases production. Depending on the climatic change scenarios employed overall national production of the crops studied changes by up to plus or minus 25% from present-day levels. Impacts are more significant regionally, with crop production varying by greater than +/-50% from baseline levels. Analysis of currently possible production areas (CPPAs) for each crop indicates that the regions most likely to be affected by climate change are those on the margins of the areas in which they are currently grown. Crop yield variability was found to be primarily influenced by local weather and geographic features rather than by large-scale changes in climate patterns and atmospheric composition. Future US agronomic potential will be significantly affected by the changes in climate projected here. The nature of the crop response will depend primarily on to what extent precipitation patterns change and also on the degree of warming experienced. CR *NAST, 2000, CLIM CHANG IMP US PO *USDA NAT AGR STAT, 1997, AGR ATL US *USDA NAT AGR STAT, 2001, PUBL EST DAT YEARS 1 *WORLD AGR OUTL BO, 1994, MAJ WORLD CROP AR CL ADAMS RM, 1998, CLIMATE CHANGE US AG ALLEN LH, 1998, AGRON J, V90, P375 BLASING TJ, 1982, ORNL PUBLICATION, V2134 BOWES G, 1993, ANNU REV PLANT PHYS, V44, P309 BROWN RA, 1999, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V41, P73 BROWN RA, 1999, IMPACT CLIMATE CHANG GITAY H, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, P235 HOUGHTON JT, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 LUO QY, 1999, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V43, P729 MAKINO A, 1999, PLANT CELL PHYSIOL, V40, P999 MAROCO JP, 1999, PLANTA, V210, P115 MAVROMATIS T, 1998, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V91, P51 NEWMAN JE, 1982, IMPACTS RISING CAR 8, V2 PARRY ML, 1988, IMPACT CLIMATE VARIA PASSIOURA JB, 1996, AGRON J, V88, P690 REILLY JM, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, P429 REILLY JM, 2001, AGR POTENTIAL CONSEQ REILLY JM, 1999, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V43, P645 REILLY JM, 1999, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V43, P745 ROUNSEVELL MDA, 1999, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V43, P683 SMITH SD, 2000, NATURE, V408, P79 WILLIAMS JR, 1995, COMPUTER MODELS WATE, P909 NR 26 TC 3 J9 CLIMATIC CHANGE BP 43 EP 65 PY 2005 PD MAR VL 69 IS 1 GA 910UF UT ISI:000227957000004 ER PT J AU Wahba, M Hope, C TI The marginal impact of carbon dioxide under two scenarios of future emissions SO ENERGY POLICY LA English DT Article C1 Univ Toronto, Dept Civil Engn, Toronto, ON M5S 1A4, Canada. Univ Cambridge, Judge Inst Management, Management Studies Tripos & Diploma Programme, Cambridge CB2 1AG, England. RP Wahba, M, Univ Toronto, Dept Civil Engn, 35 St George St, Toronto, ON M5S 1A4, Canada. AB This paper uses the PAGE2002 model to calculate the marginal impact of carbon dioxide (CO2) under the A2 and B2 marker scenarios of the IPCC, and its distribution across regions, sectors, and over time. PAGE2002 considers the possibility of large-scale discontinuities, a major concern in the IPCC TAR. PAGE2002 estimates the mean value of the marginal impact for CO2 under scenario A2 to be $19 per tonne of carbon (tC), equivalent to $5 per tonne Of CO2. The 95% and 5% values for the marginal impact are $4/tC and $5/tC. The mean value under scenario B2 is estimated to be $14/tC, with 95% and 5% points as $41/tC and $3/tC, respectively. The marginal impact is sensitive to the pure rate of time preference, and doubles for a 1% reduction from 3% to 2%. Additionally, adaptation policy affects the marginal impact estimates; they increase by 50% if no adaptation policy is implemented. Benefits from reductions in greenhouse gas emissions will affect the globe as a whole, but with various regions being more affected than others. Developing countries would receive about 50% of the benefit, whereas the European Union's benefits would be about 7%; only about 2% of the benefits would be felt in the USA. Benefits from an immediate reduction in CO2 emissions peak a round the year 2100. About 60% of the benefits from reducing greenhouse gas emissions are non-economic, with economic and large-scale discontinuities being about 20% each. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 *IPCC, 2001, CLIM CHANG 2001 MIT BEIN P, 1999, P 3 BIENN C CAN SOC CLARKSON R, 2002, 140 DEP ENV FOOD RUR CLINE W, 1992, EC GLOBAL WARMING CLINE W, 1995, PRICING CARBON DIOXI EYRE N, 1997, GLOBAL WARMING DAMAG EYRE N, 1999, EXTERNALITIES ENERGY, V7, P101 HOPE C, IN PRESS MARGINAL IM HOPE C, 1993, ENERG POLICY, V21, P327 HOPE C, 2005, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V68, P21 MORITA T, 1999, EMISSIONS SCENARIO D NEWELL R, 2001, DISCOUNTING BENEFITS NORDHAUS WD, 1991, ECON J, V101, P920 NORDHAUS WD, 1992, SCIENCE, V258, P1315 PEARCE DW, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, P179 PLAMBECK E, 1995, 1994199514 U CAMBR J PLAMBECK EL, 1996, ENERG POLICY, V24, P783 PLAMBECK EL, 1997, ENERG ECON, V19, P77 SHOGREN T, 2000, 25 RES FUT TOL R, FNU19 HAMB U CTR MAR TOL R, 2000, D0008 VRIJ U I ENV S TOL R, 2001, SCG4 HAMB U RES UN S TOL R, 2002, AEA TECHNOLOGY QUANT TOL RSJ, 1999, ENERGY J, V20, P61 TOL RSJ, 2005, ENERG POLICY, V33, P2064 WAHBA M, 2003, THESIS CAMBRIDGE U NR 27 TC 0 J9 ENERG POLICY BP 3305 EP 3316 PY 2006 PD NOV VL 34 IS 17 GA 100CG UT ISI:000241644200060 ER PT J AU Tir, J Diehl, PF TI Demographic pressure and interstate conflict: Linking population growth and density to militarized disputes and wars, 1930-89 SO JOURNAL OF PEACE RESEARCH LA English DT Article C1 Univ Illinois, Dept Polit Sci, Urbana, IL 61801 USA. RP Tir, J, Univ Illinois, Dept Polit Sci, Urbana, IL 61801 USA. AB This study offers some empirical evidence on the relationship between population pressure and international conflict. Most of the work on population or in the area of environmental security focuses on internal conflict: and does not include longitudinal and cross-national evidence to support its arguments. Here, we looked at the impact of population growth and density on international conflict involvement, initiation, and escalation for all states in the international system over the period 1930-89. Generally, population growth pressures had a significant impact on the likelihood chat a stare would become involved in military conflict. The relationship was modest, as expected, but seems to confirm the more pessimistic of the views of population and conflict. Significant military capability might be necessary for population pressures to lead to conflict, and low technology countries are more subject to population pressures and conflict involvement than their more advanced peers. In part, our results also suggest that some portion of the optimist argument may be correct - advanced technology may mitigate some of the deleterious effects of high population growth. Although there was a positive relationship between population growth and conflict, there was little or no evidence that such growth made states more likely to be the initiator of that conflict or make chat conflict more likely to escalate to war. Similar to earlier studies, we were unable to link population density to conflict at the nation-state level. There was scant evidence in all three analyses (involvement, initiation, and escalation) that overcrowding exercised any significant impact on state decision-making. It appears that states do not: engage in conflict in order to acquire new land to support a burgeoning population Thus, there are substantial limits to the validity of extending overcrowding arguments to the context of interstate relations. CR 1982, WORLD ALMANAC BOOK F ANGELL N, 1936, RAW MAT POPULATION P BOBROW D, 1984, MULTIDISCIPLINARY PE, P179 BREMER SJ, 1973, COMP POLIT STUD, V6, P329 CHOUCCRI N, 1975, NATIONS CONFLICT CHOUCRI N, 1974, POPULATION DYNAMICS CHOUCRI N, 1989, HDB WAR STUDIES, P289 CHOUCRI N, 1992, CHALLENGE JAPAN WORL DEBLIJ HJ, 1992, GEOGRAPHY REGIONS CO DEMESQUITA BB, 1988, WORLD POLIT, V41, P1 DEUDNEY D, 1991, B ATOM SCI, V47, P22 DORPLAN A, 1942, WORLD GEN HAUSHOFER DURHAM W, 1979, SCARCITY SURVIVAL CE EHRLICH PR, 1968, POPULATION BOMB EHRLICH PR, 1991, POPULATION EXPLOSION GEORTZ G, 1992, TERRITORIAL CHANGES GOCHMAN C, 1989, PRISONERS WAR NATION, P141 GOCHMAN CS, 1984, J CONFLICT RESOLUT, V28, P585 GOCHMAN CS, 1991, INT INTERACT, V17, P93 HESKE H, 1987, POLIT GEOGR Q, V6, P135 HINMAN H, 1945, POPULATION PRESSURES HOLSTI K, 1991, PEACE WAR ARMED CONF HOMERDIXON T, 1995, WORLD SECURITY CHALL, P290 HOMERDIXON TF, 1991, INT SECURITY, V16, P76 HOMERDIXON TF, 1994, INT SECURITY, V19, P5 JONES DM, 1996, CONFLICT MANAG PEACE, V15, P163 KEGLEY C, 1995, GLOBAL AGENDA, P343 KUGLER J, 1989, HDB WAR STUDIES, P171 LEROY M, 1978, POPULATION WORLD POL LEROY M, 1986, GLOBAL RESOURCES INT, P159 LIPSCHUTZ R, 1989, NATIONS CLASH RAW MA MATLHUS T, 1803, ESSAY PRINCIPLE POPU MEADOWS D, 1973, LIMITS GROWTH REPORT MERRITT RL, 1995, INT POLIT SCI REV, V16, P405 MOST B, 1989, INQUIRY LOGIC INT PO NORTH R, 1984, MULTIDISCIPLINARY PE, P195 ORGANSKI AFK, 1958, WORLD POLITICS ORGANSKI AFK, 1984, BIRTHS DEATHS TAXES ORGANSKI K, 1961, POPULATION WORLD POW RASLER K, 1992, EFFECTS WAR SOC, P245 SIMON JL, 1981, ULTIMATE RESOURCE SIMON JL, 1984, RESOURCEFUL EARTH SIMON JL, 1989, J CONFLICT RESOLUT, V33, P164 SIMON JL, 1996, ULTIMATE RESOURCE, V2 SINGER M, 1987, PASSAGE HUMAN WORLD SLOAN GR, 1988, GEOPOLITICS US STRAT SMALL M, 1982, RESORT ARMS THOMPSON W, 1929, DANGER SPOTS WORLD P THOMPSON W, 1965, POPULATION PROBLEMS VASQUEZ JA, 1995, J PEACE RES, V32, P277 WRIGHT Q, 1965, STUDY WAR ZUK G, 1985, J POLIT, V47, P269 NR 52 TC 6 J9 J PEACE RES BP 319 EP 339 PY 1998 PD MAY VL 35 IS 3 GA ZQ598 UT ISI:000073884100004 ER PT J AU Giordano, M TI The geography of the commons: The role of scale and space SO ANNALS OF THE ASSOCIATION OF AMERICAN GEOGRAPHERS LA English DT Article C1 Oregon State Univ, Dept Geog, Corvallis, OR 97331 USA. RP Giordano, M, 621 Bryant, Walla Walla, WA 99362 USA. AB The "tragedy of the commons" is a concept familiar to students of resource management, and many academic disciplines have devoted considerable attention to its understanding and solution. Despite a long tradition of concern with issues directly related to the problem, the field of geography has been relatively silent in the commons literature, especially on the theoretic front. The present article attempts to address this shortcoming by applying aeographic methodologies-particularly as related to scale and space-to an understanding of the phenomenon. The article first demonstrates the role of sociopolitical scale in defining the commons problem and then develops a typology classifying common resources into one of three categories-open access, fugitive, and migratory-based on spatial relationships between resources and resource users. The article shows that the geographic nature of the commons problem for any particular resource depends on the sociopolitical scale at which it is assessed, and suggests that solutions to commons problems should vary both by scale and by spatial nature. Key Words: common property, open access, resource management, scale, transboundary. CR ADAMS DA, 1993, RENEWABLE RESOURCE P ALLEN JC, 1985, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V75, P163 BARROWS HH, 1923, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V13, P1 BASSETT TJ, 1993, LAND AFRICAN AGRARIA BERKES F, 2000, CROSS SCALE I LINKAG BLOMLEY NK, 1994, LAW SPACE GEOGRAPHIE BRADLEY MD, 1986, ECON GEOGR, V62, P241 CIRIACYWANTRUP SV, 1975, NAT RESOUR J, V15, P713 CLARK GL, 1982, ECON GEOGR, V58, P120 COASE RH, 1960, J LAW ECON, V3, P1 COHEN SB, 1991, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V81, P551 COMRIE AC, 1994, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V84, P635 DALES JH, 1968, CANADIAN J EC, V4, P791 DASMANN R, 1981, WILDLIFE BIOL DOUGILL AJ, 1999, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V89, P420 EMEL J, 1995, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V85, P664 EMEL JL, 1988, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V78, P241 FURUBOTN EG, 1972, J ECON LIT, V10, P1137 GIBSON CC, 2000, ECOL ECON, V32, P217 GIORDANO M, 2002, THESIS OREGON STATE GORDON HS, 1954, J POLITICAL EC, V62, P124 HARDIN G, 1968, SCIENCE, V162, P1243 HARTSHORNE R, 1939, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V29, P173 HARVEY D, 1977, RADICAL GEOG, P213 HOSIER RH, 1988, ECON GEOGR, V64, P121 JAMES PE, 1952, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V42, P195 JONES S, 1954, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V49, P111 KASPERSON JX, 1995, REGIONS RISK, V1, P1 KAY J, 1979, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V79, P402 MARKS SA, 1984, IMPERIAL LION HUMAN MARSH GP, 1965, MAN NATURE PHYSICAL MCCAY BM, 1987, QUESTION COMMONS CUL MENZIES NK, 1994, FOREST LAND MANANGEM MITCHELL D, 1995, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V85, P108 NETANYAHU S, 1998, CONFLICT COOPERATION, P363 NETTING R, 1976, HUM ECOL, V4, P135 OMERNIK JM, 1987, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V77, P118 OMERNIK JM, 1997, J AM WATER RESOUR AS, V33, P935 OSTROM E, 1990, GOVT COMMONS EVOLUTI OSTROM E, 1997, PRIVATE COMMON PROPE OSTROM E, 1999, SCIENCE, V284, P279 PATTISON WD, 1964, J GEOGR, V63, P211 PEUQUET DJ, 1988, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V78, P375 PRICE ET, 1995, 238 U CHIC REED MG, 1995, ECON GEOGR, V71, P132 REISER M, 1986, CADILLAC DESERT RICHEY JE, 2000, PROTECTING COMMONS F, P273 ROBERTS RS, 1992, ECON GEOGR, V68, P249 RUNGE CF, 1983, COMMON PROPERTY RESO, P31 SACK RD, 1973, GEOGR ANAL, V5, P16 SACK RD, 1983, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V73, P55 SAFF G, 1996, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V86, P235 SAUER CO, 1925, U CALIFORNIA PUBLICA, V2, P19 SCHAEFER FK, 1953, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V43, P226 SCHLAGER E, 1992, LAND ECON, V68, P249 SCHLAGER E, 1993, POLITICAL EC CUSTOMS, P13 SCHROEDER RA, 1997, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V87, P487 SEMPLE EC, 2003, AM HIST ITS GEOGRAPH SPATE OHK, 1960, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V50, P377 TAAFFE EJ, 1974, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V64, P1 TECLAFF LA, 1996, NAT RESOUR J 1, V36, P359 TIETENBERG T, 1992, ENV NATURAL RESOURCE WATTS MJ, 1983, SILENT VIOLENCE FOOD WILSON J, 2001, I ECOSYSTEMS SUSTAIN, P59 WOLF AT, 1998, WATER POLICY, V1, P251 WOLF AT, 2003, WATER POLICY, V5, P31 YOUNG E, 2001, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V91, P283 YOUNG O, 2002, RIGHTS NATURE ECOLOG, P263 YOUNG OR, 1996, RIGHTS NATURE, P245 YOUNG OR, 2002, DRAMA COMMONS, P263 ZIMMERMAN E, 1933, WORLD RESOURCES IND NR 71 TC 0 J9 ANN ASSN AMER GEOGR BP 365 EP 375 PY 2003 PD JUN VL 93 IS 2 GA 701AM UT ISI:000184143400007 ER PT J AU Islam, MS Oki, T Kanae, S Hanasaki, N Agata, Y Yoshimura, K TI A grid-based assessment of global water scarcity including virtual water trading SO WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article C1 Univ Tokyo, Inst Ind Sci, Meguro Ku, Tokyo 1530041, Japan. RP Islam, MS, Univ Tokyo, Inst Ind Sci, Meguro Ku, 4-6-1 Komaba, Tokyo 1530041, Japan. AB A 0.5-degree grid-based assessment of the scarcity of global water resources including virtual water trading has been made. The three components of water availability considered for each grid were local runoff, routed flow from upstream and virtual water trading. Several assumptions were postulated to convert country-base estimations of virtual water trading to grid values. The results show that unequal spatial distribution of global water resources had been considerably neutralized by virtual water trading. A large proportion of people in the Middle-East, North-Africa and Sub-Sahara region are able to relieve their water stress through virtual water import. The paper also reports two hypothetical scenarios with extremes of natural flow availability based on the presence and absence of routed upstream flow. CR *CIESIN, 2000, GRIDD POP WORLD GPW *FAO, 2004, ONL AQUASTAT 2000 DA ALCAMO J, 2003, HYDROLOG SCI J, V48, P339 ALLAN JA, 1998, GROUND WATER, V36, P545 ALLAN JA, 1998, ICID J, V47, P1 ALLAN JA, 2002, MIDDLE E WATER QUEST ALLAN JA, 2003, WATER INT, V28, P106 ARNELL NW, 1999, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V9, P31 ARNELL NW, 1999, J HYDROL, V217, P314 ARNELL NW, 2004, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V14, P31 DICKINSON RE, 1986, TN275 STR NAT CTR AT DICKINSON RE, 1998, J CLIMATE, V11, P2823 DIRMEYER PA, 2006, B AM METEOROL SOC, V87, P1381 DOLL P, 2003, J HYDROL, V270, P105 ELFADEL M, 2003, RES REPORT SERIES IH, V12 FALKENMARK M, 1989, NAT RESOUR FORUM, V13, P258 HAKIMAIN H, 2003, REV MIDDLE E EC FINA, V1, P71 HOEKSTRA AY, 2002, RES REPORT SERIES IH, V11 HOEKSTRA AY, 2004, GLOBAL ENV CHANGE A, V15, P45 KULSHRESHTHA SN, 1993, RR93010 IIASA, P137 NIJSSEN B, 2001, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V50, P143 OKADA Y, 2000, THESIS U TOKYO TOKYO OKI T, 1998, DESIGN TOTAL RUNOFF OKI T, 1999, J METEOROL SOC JPN, V77, P235 OKI T, 2001, HYDROLOG SCI J, V46, P983 OKI T, 2003, RES REPORT SERIES IH, V12 OZCAN KM, 2003, BASIC FOOD CONSUMPTI PARVEEN S, 2004, WATER POLICY, V6, P1 RASKIN P, 1997, COMPREHENSIVE ASSESS REGMI A, 2001, WRS011 USDA EC RES S REVENGA C, 2000, PILOT ANAL GLOBAL EC SELLERS PJ, 1986, J ATMOS SCI, V43, P505 SELLERS PJ, 1996, J CLIMATE, V9, P676 TURTON AR, 1999, 11 MEWREW VOROSMARTY CJ, 2000, SCIENCE, V289, P284 WICHELNS D, 2001, AGR WATER MANAGE, V49, P131 YANG H, 2001, ENVIRON PLANN A, V33, P79 YANG H, 2002, WORLD DEV, V30, P1413 YEGNESBOTZER A, 2001, 166 DEW IHE NR 39 TC 0 J9 WATER RESOUR MANAG BP 19 EP 33 PY 2007 PD JAN VL 21 IS 1 GA 121FB UT ISI:000243142400003 ER PT J AU SMITH, DR TI ENVIRONMENTAL SECURITY AND SHARED WATER-RESOURCES IN POST-SOVIET CENTRAL-ASIA SO POST-SOVIET GEOGRAPHY LA English DT Article RP SMITH, DR, MONTEREY INST INT STUDIES,CTR RUSSIAN & EURASIAN STUDIES,425 VAN BUREN ST,MONTEREY,CA 93940. AB This paper examines the distribution of water and the location of physical and political boundaries in Central Asia, identifies indicators of the susceptibility of its various regions to resource and water-related conflict, and then applies those indicators to discover the potential for future water-based regional conflict. The dimensions of the problem are addressed not only in terms of the physical availability of water (or lack of same), but also water quality and regional social unrest as a consequence of migration from regions of environmental deterioration. 5 figures, 4 tables, 45 references. CR 1992, RM NEWS 1218, P74 1995, FBISSOV95044, P1 *GOSK SSSR, 1988, NAS SSSR 1987 STAT S *INF SENTR GOSK SS, 1991, CHISL NAS SOYUZN RES *INF SENTR GOSK SS, 1991, OKHR OKR SRED RATS I *INT C WAT ENV, 1992, DUBL STAT WAT SUST D *NARKH SSSR, 1987, NAR KHOZ SSSR V 1987 *NARKH UZSSSR, 1990, NAR KHOZ UZB SSR V 1 *WORLD BANK, 1991, AR SEA PROGR PHAS AI, V1 *WORLD BANK, 1994, TAJ WORLD BANK COUNT ASKAROV T, 1995, FBISSOV95119, P12 BORODAVCHENKO II, 1988, MELIORATSIYA VODNOYE, V5 BOSTANDZHOGLO AA, 1991, PROBLEMY OKRUZHAYUSH CRITCHLOW J, 1995, ENV SECURITY QUALITY, P139 DEBARDELEBEN J, 1995, ENV SECURITY QUALITY ELEBAYEVA AB, 1992, POST-SOV GEOGR, V33, P78 ELHANCE A, IN PRESS CONTESTED G GLEASON G, 1992, WATER LAND CONFLICT GLEASON G, 1993, NATION POLITICS SOVI, P331 GLEASON G, 1993, RFE RL RES REPORT, V2, P28 GLEICK PH, 1992, CONFRONTING CLIMATE GLEICK PH, 1994, INT SECURITY, V18, P79 HASSAN S, 1991, ENV ISSUES SECURITY HOMERDIXON TF, 1994, INT SECURITY, V19, P5 KAISER RJ, 1994, GEOGRAPHY NATIONALIS LUBIN N, 1995, CENTRAL ASIANS TAKE MATTHEW RA, 1995, 1 AM ASS ADV SCI WOO MONROE SD, 1992, POST-SOV GEOGR, V33, P533 MYERS N, 1993, ULTIMATE SECURITY EN NAFF T, 1984, WATER MIDDLE E CONFL NOURZHANOV K, 1995, CENTRAL ASIAN MONITO, V1, P7 NUROV AN, 1992, ENV MANAGEMENT ARAL, V29, P56 PAARLBERG RL, 1994, ENVIRONMENT, V36, P66 PANARIN SA, 1994, CENTRAL ASIA TRANSCA, P69 PORKHOMOVSKY VY, 1994, CENTRAL ASIA TRANSCA, P1 ROTAR I, 1993, CURRENT DIGEST POST, V45, P6 SARTY L, 1995, ENV SECURITY QUALITY, P15 SELYUNIN V, 1989, NOVYY MIR, V5, P213 SITNIKOV B, 1994, JPRSTEN94025 JOINT P, P30 SMITH DR, 1991, SOV GEOGR, V32, P553 TWINGING DT, 1993, NEW EURASIA GUIDE RE VOLFTSUN IB, 1988, VODNYYE RESURSY, V3, P119 YABLOKOV AV, 1994, EK CHESK BEZ ROSS 1 NR 43 TC 5 J9 POST-SOV GEOGR BP 351 EP 370 PY 1995 PD JUN VL 36 IS 6 GA RY404 UT ISI:A1995RY40400002 ER PT J AU D'haeseleer, WD TI The importance of fusion development towards a future energy source SO FUSION ENGINEERING AND DESIGN LA English DT Article C1 Univ Louvain, Energy Inst, Appl Mech & Energy Convers, B-3001 Louvain, Belgium. RP D'haeseleer, WD, Univ Louvain, Energy Inst, Appl Mech & Energy Convers, Celestijnenlaan 300A, B-3001 Louvain, Belgium. AB In the light of major uncertainties in the long-term energy provision, the sensible approach with regard to energy-conversion technologies is not an 'either-or', but an 'and-and' philosophy. All three long-term carbon-free options, renewables, fission and fusion, should be further explored and developed so that future generations can choose the composition of an appropriate energy source basket. It would be irresponsible towards future generations not to pursue a potentially successful energy source such as nuclear fusion. Indeed, future fusion power plants have good prospects to qualify as economic and environmentally benign base-load electricity generation plants. The progress of fusion development has been remarkable; all available techno-scientific information shows that steady and significant progress is being made towards a successful reactor. The slow (but steady) pace of progress, however, is linked with the need for large and expensive experimental devices. In the present context of liberalizing energy markets, whereby most actors focus on short time survival and profit making, and the indifference by the public at large towards science and technology development, it is not obvious to convince the decision makers to invest in a long-term energy research strategy. Nevertheless, political decisiveness is required to keep the time schedule to establish commercial fusion by the middle of the century. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. CR *BP, 2002, BP STAT REV WORLD JU *CEU, 1996, DIR GEN EN DG 18 EN *CEU, 2001, EUR COMM GREEN PAP E *EAG FU, 2000, OP EAG FU EUR FUS RE *IAEA, 1998, ITER EDA DOCUMENTATI, V16 *IAEA, 2001, ITER EDA DOCUMENTATI, V18 *IAEA, 2001, ITER EDA DOCUMENTATI, V22 *IAEA, 2001, ITER EDA ITER EDA DO, V21 *IAEA, 2002, ITER EDA DOCUMENTATI, V24 *IEA, 2001, WORLD EN OUTL 2000 *SHELL INT, 1996, EV WORLDS EN SYST *UNDP, 2000, WORLD EN ASS EN CHAL ATSON RT, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995 BRUCE JP, 1995, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995 CRISWELL DR, 2002, INNOVATIVE ENERGY ST, P345 DHAESELEER W, 1994, BAFU9401 EMTZ B, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 HAESELEER WD, 1999, PLASMA PHYS CONTROLL, V41, B25 HOUGHTON JT, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995 HOUGHTON JT, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 KING D, 2001, CONCLUSIONS FUSION F MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 NAKICENOVIC N, 1998, GLOBAL ENERGY PERSPE SUESS E, 1999, SCI AM, V281, P53 NR 24 TC 0 J9 FUSION ENG DES BP 3 EP 15 PY 2003 PD SEP VL 66-8 GA 726UE UT ISI:000185617900002 ER PT J AU Wilson, K Pressey, RL Newton, A Burgman, M Possingham, H Weston, C TI Measuring and incorporating vulnerability into conservation planning SO ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT LA English DT Review C1 Univ Queensland, Ctr Ecol, Brisbane, Qld 4072, Australia. Dept Environm & Conservat, Armidale, NSW 2350, Australia. Bournemouth Univ, Sch Conservat Sci, Poole BH12 5BB, Dorset, England. Univ Melbourne, Sch Bot, Melbourne, Vic 3010, Australia. Univ Melbourne, Forest Sci Ctr, Creswick, Vic 3363, Australia. RP Wilson, K, Univ Queensland, Ctr Ecol, Brisbane, Qld 4072, Australia. AB Conservation planning is the process of locating and designing conservation areas to promote the persistence of biodiversity in situ. To do this, conservation areas must be able to mitigate at least some of the proximate threats to biodiversity. Information on threatening processes and the relative vulnerability of areas and natural features to these processes is therefore crucial for effective conservation planning. However, measuring and incorporating vulnerability into conservation planning have been problematic. We develop a conceptual framework of the role of vulnerability assessments in conservation planning and propose a definition of vulnerability that incorporates three dimensions: exposure, intensity, and impact. We review and categorize methods for assessing the vulnerability of areas and the features they contain and identify the relative strengths and weaknesses of each broad approach, Our review highlights the need for further development and evaluation of approaches to assess vulnerability and for comparisons of their relative effectiveness. 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CR 1975, PREDICTING EARTHQUAK ALEXANDER DE, 1982, EARTHQUAKE 23 NOVEMB BENNETT HH, 1939, SOIL CONSERVATION BOLT BA, 1977, GEOLOGICAL HAZARDS E BORCHERDT RD, 1975, 941A US GEOL SURV PR BURTON I, 1978, ENV HAZARD, V1, P1 CARGO DN, 1974, MAN HIS GEOLOGIC ENV CARTER LJ, 1977, SCIENCE, V196, P409 COATES DR, 1973, ENV GEOMORPHOLOGY LA, V3 COATES DR, 1981, ENV GEOLOGY COSTA JE, 1981, SURFICIAL GEOLOGY BU DETWYLER TR, 1972, URBANIZATION ENV FLAWN PT, 1970, ENV GEOLOGY CONSERVA GODDARD JE, 1976, J SOIL WATER CONSERV, V31, P48 GUY HP, 1970, 601E US GEOL SURV CI, E1 HAYS WW, 1981, 1240B US GEOL SURV P HOWARD AD, 1978, GEOLOGY ENV PLANNING KELLER EA, 1982, ENV GEOLOGY LEGGETT RF, 1972, CITIES GEOLOGY LEVESON D, 1980, GEOLOGY URBAN ENV MCKENZIE GD, 1975, MAN HIS PHYSICAL ENV MENARD HW, 1974, GEOLOGY RESOURCES SO NICHOLS DR, 1971, ENV PLANNING GEOLOGY POWELL JW, 1878, REPORT LANDS ARID RE RAHN PH, 1978, LESSONS LEARNED JUNE, P41 SCHEIDEGGER AE, 1975, PHYSICAL ASPECTS NAT SCHNEIDER WJ, 1978, EXTENT DEV URBAN FLO, P34 STRAHLER AN, 1973, ENV GEOSCIENCE INTER TANK RW, 1975, FOCUS ENV GEOLOGY THOMAS G, 1971, SAN FRANCISCO EARTHQ TURK LJ, 1975, ENV GEOLOGY UTGARD RO, 1978, GEOLOGY URBAN ENV WHITE GF, 1974, NATURAL HAZARDS LOCA NR 33 TC 0 J9 ENVIRON MANAGE BP 125 EP 128 PY 1983 VL 7 IS 2 GA QH641 UT ISI:A1983QH64100004 ER PT J AU OConnor, RE Bord, RJ Yarnal, B Wiefek, N TI Who wants to reduce greenhouse gas emissions? SO SOCIAL SCIENCE QUARTERLY LA English DT Article C1 Penn State Univ, Dept Polit Sci, University Pk, PA 16802 USA. RP OConnor, RE, Penn State Univ, Dept Polit Sci, University Pk, PA 16802 USA. CR *NAT ASS SYNTH TEA, 2000, CLIM CHANG IMP US PO BALDASSARE M, 1992, ENVIRON BEHAV, V24, P602 BAUMOL W, 1979, EC ENV POLICY QUALIT BERGER IE, 1997, ENVIRON BEHAV, V29, P515 BORD RJ, 1997, SOC SCI QUART, V78, P830 BORD RJ, 1998, CLIMATE RES, V11, P75 BROZ J, 1996, CANADIAN WATER RESOU, V21, P275 BUTTEL FH, 1992, RURAL SOCIOL, V57, P1 DAVIDSON DJ, 1996, ENVIRON BEHAV, V28, P302 DIETZ T, 1998, ENVIRON BEHAV, V30, P450 DUNLAP RE, 1995, J SOC ISSUES, V51, P121 EASTERLING WE, 1998, LOCAL ENV, V3, P249 ELLIOTT E, 1998, J ENVIRON MANAGE, V51, P15 FISHER A, 2000, PREPARING CHANGING C GELBSPAN R, 1997, HEAT IS HIGH STAKES GORE A, 1992, EARTH BALANCE HOUGHTON JL, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995 INGLEHART R, 1995, PS, V28, P57 INGLEHART R, 1997, MODERNIZATION POSTMO INGLEHAT R, 1990, CULTURE SHIFT ADV IN KEMPTON W, 1993, ANNU REV ENERG ENV, V18, P217 KEMPTON W, 1995, ENV VALUES AM CULTUR KROSNICK JA, 2000, PUBLIC UNDERST SCI, V9, P239 MCDANIELS TL, 1997, RISK ANAL, V17, P341 MOHAI P, 1987, SOCIAL SCI Q, V68, P798 MONDAK J, 1993, RES MICROPOLITICS, V4, P117 NADEAU R, 1995, AM J POLIT SCI, V39, P558 OCONNOR R, 1999, RISK ANAL, V19, P455 SNIDERMAN P, 1991, REASONING CHOICE EXP STERN PC, 1993, ENVIRON BEHAV, V25, P322 STERN PC, 1999, HUMAN ECOLOGY REV, V6, P81 TOLLESONRINEHAR.S, 1997, POLITICAL RES Q, V50, P153 UNGAR S, 2000, PUBLIC UNDERST SCI, V9, P297 WATSON RT, 1998, REGIONAL IMPACTS CLI, V1, P1 ZALLER J, 1992, NATURE ORIGINS MASS NR 35 TC 0 J9 SOC SCI QUART BP 1 EP 17 PY 2002 PD MAR VL 83 IS 1 GA 523FN UT ISI:000173943500002 ER PT J AU Tran, LT Knight, CG O'Neill, RV Smith, ER Riitters, KH Wickham, J TI Fuzzy decision analysis for integrated environmental vulnerability assessment of the Mid-Atlantic region SO ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article C1 Penn State Univ, Ctr Integrated Reg Assessment, University Pk, PA 16802 USA. Penn State Univ, Dept Geog, University Pk, PA 16802 USA. Oak Ridge Natl Lab, Div Environm Sci, Oak Ridge, TN 37831 USA. US EPA, Off Res & Dev, Natl Exposure Res Lab, Res Triangle Pk, NC USA. RP Tran, LT, 2217 Earth & Engn Sci Bldg, University Pk, PA 16802 USA. AB A fuzzy decision analysis method for integrating ecological indicators was developed. This was a combination of a fuzzy ranking method and the analytic hierarchy process (AHP). The method was capable of ranking ecosystems in terms of environmental conditions and suggesting cumulative impacts across a large region, Using data on land cover, population, roads, streams, air pollution, and topography of the Mid-Atlantic region, we were able to point out areas that were in relatively poor condition and/or vulnerable to future deterioration, The method offered an easy and comprehensive way to combine the strengths of fuzzy set theory and the AHP for ecological assessment. Furthermore, the suggested method can serve as a building block for the evaluation of environmental policies. 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RP Gomez, ED, Univ Philippines, Inst Marine Sci, Quezon 1101, Philippines. AB It is proposed that marine scientific research might be a common activity that could be undertaken by claimant and nonclaimant states to the Spratly region. This can be a confidence-building measure that would bring players from the different countries together to address common concerns and thus learn to communicate and work with one another. Previous research efforts in the South China Sea are mentioned and mechanisms for future collaborative work are outlined. These activities will help address the issues of sustained productivity and environmental security in the region. CR ABUKHAIR MM, 1986, OCCASIONAL PUBL U PE, V3 ABUKHAIR MM, 1987, OCCASIONAL PUBL, V4 ABUKHAIR MM, 1990, OCCASIONAL PUBL U PE, V9 AGOES ER, 1991, FISHING TROUBLED WAT, P348 CHEN JP, 1997, PAC SCI, V51, P143 CHEN S, 1996, AT&T TECH J, V75, P6 COWEN RK, 2000, SCIENCE, V287, P857 DAI CF, 1996, ATOLL RES B, V436 FIEGE D, 1994, MAR POLLUT BULL, V29, P84 GOMEZ ED, 1994, MAR POLLUT BULL, V28, P132 GOMEZ ED, 1996, MARINE TURTLE NEWSLE, V72, P19 HUANG JB, 1994, ACTA OCEANOGRAPHICA, P49 HUANG ZG, 1994, MARINE SPECIES THEIR JENG MS, 1998, ZOOL STUD, V37, P137 LE DT, 1997, P C PHIL VIETN JOINT MCMANUS JW, 1992, NAGA ICLARM Q, V15, P4 MCMANUS JW, 1994, AMBIO, V23, P181 NG KLP, 1997, ZOOL STUD, V36, P261 PILCHER N, 1999, LAYANG LAYANG DROP O SANDIEGOMCGLONE ML, 1999, ACTA OCEANOGRAPHICA, V37, P219 SUN KM, 1996, MAR POLICY, V20, P199 NR 21 TC 0 J9 OCEAN DEV INT LAW BP 205 EP 211 PY 2001 PD APR VL 32 IS 2 GA 428EH UT ISI:000168448100008 ER PT J AU Guenette, S Lauck, T Clark, CW TI Marine reserves: from Beverton and Holt to the present SO REVIEWS IN FISH BIOLOGY AND FISHERIES LA English DT Review C1 Univ British Columbia, Fisheries Ctr, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z4, Canada. Univ British Columbia, Dept Math, Vancouver, BC, Canada. RP Guenette, S, Univ British Columbia, Fisheries Ctr, 2204 Main Mall, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z4, Canada. AB The idea of using marine reserves, where all fishing is banned is not new to fisheries management. It was first formally considered by Beverton and Holt but rejected in favour of approaches such as fleer and gear control. Since that analysis, many fisheries have collapsed worldwide, illustrating the vulnerability of fishery resources and the ineffectiveness of these approaches. Empirical data and modelling suggest that marine reserves would generally increase yields, especially at the high fishing mortality that occurs in most fisheries. However, the most interesting feature of reserves is their ability to provide resilience to overexploitation, thereby reducing the risk of stock collapse. Benefits from reserves come from the increase in biomass and individual size within them, resulting in adult migration and/or larval dispersal that would replenish fishing grounds. The use of marine reserves in managing fisheries necessitates a thorough understanding of critical habitat requirements, fish movement, fish behaviour, the relations between subpopulations and the critical density effect for larval dispersal. When properly designed, and coupled with other management practices, reserves may provide a better insurance against uncertainties in stock assessment, fishing control and management by protecting a part of the population from exploitation. This strategy can be used for both sedentary and migratory species. 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Evidence from Santo Domingo SO INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT PLANNING REVIEW LA English DT Article C1 Univ Liverpool, Dept Geog, Liverpool L69 7ZT, Merseyside, England. RP Pelling, M, Univ Liverpool, Dept Geog, Roxby Bldg, Liverpool L69 7ZT, Merseyside, England. AB Urban areas are becoming increasingly risky places to live, especially for low-income residents of cities in developing countries. Exposure to environmental risk and hazard has stimulated a range of work examining the physical processes creating these hazards, and the human processes that lead to vulnerability. Both approaches are useful, but are in danger of focusing on proximate rather than underlying causes. The concept of 'adaptive potential' is introduced in this paper to expose the social base of vulnerability. It offers a framework for broadening the analysis of risk to include an examination of local social assets. Such assets may already be used in confronting vulnerability, or they may be more latent; in either case, they offer a way for strategic policy interventions to enhance community resilience with regard to future risk at a time of growing environmental uncertainty. Adaptive potential is applied to a case study community in Santo Domingo. CR 1999, GUARDIAN 1221 *CIUND ALT, 1996, ANT URB CIUD ALT *IFRC RC INT FED R, 1998, WORLD DIS REP 1998 *ONAPLAN, 1997, INF POBL, V11 *UNDP, 1998, 98013 DOM UNDP ADGER WN, 1999, WORLD DEV, V27, P249 ALBALABERTRAND JM, 1993, POLITICAL EC LARGE N AMDEM, 1999, COMMUNICATION 0618 AROYO, 1999, COMMUNICATION 0610 BENNETT J, 2000, MANAGING DEV UNDERST, P167 BERKE PR, 1993, DISASTERS, V17, P93 BLAIKIE PM, 1994, RISK NATURAL HAZARDS CANNON T, 1994, DISASTERS DEV ENV CELA J, 1996, ANTOLOGIA URBANA CIU CELA J, 1999, COMMUNICATION CUTTER SL, 2000, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V90, P713 DAHIYA B, 2001, SUSTAINABLE CITIES D, P152 DESAI V, 1995, COMMUNITY PARTICIPAT DIAZ VJ, 1992, ENVIRON URBAN, V4, P80 DREZE J, 1989, HUNGER PUBLIC ACTION EDWARDS SM, 1995, J INT DEV, V7, P849 EVANS P, 1996, WORLD DEV, V24, P1 FERNANDEZ AS, 1996, ANTOLOGIA URBAN CIUD, P443 FISZBEIN A, 1999, WORKING TOGETHER CHA FUKUYAMA F, 2001, 3 WORLD Q, V22, P7 GOODHAND J, 2000, DISASTERS, V24, P390 GULKAN P, 2001, WHAT EMERGED RUBBLE HARDOY JE, 2001, ENV PROBLEMS URBANIZ HEWITT K, 1983, INTERPRETATIONS CALA HEWITT K, 1997, REGIONS RISK GEOGRAP, V1, P1 HYDEN G, 1997, STUD COMP INT DEV, V32, P3 JACOBI P, 1997, J CONTINGENCIES CRIS, V5, P131 JORDAN A, 2000, 20001001 CSERGE U E LEWIS J, 1999, DEV DISASTER PRONE P MASKREY A, 1999, NATURAL DISASTER MAN, P84 MCILWAINE C, 2001, J INT DEV, V13, P1 MOCUGRECA, 1999, COMMUNICATION 0616 MOSER CON, 1996, CONFRONTING CRISIS C MOSER CON, 1998, WORLD DEV, V26, P1 MULWANDA M, 1993, ENVIRON URBAN, V5, P67 NARYAN D, 1999, 2167 POL RES POV DIV OLSON RS, 2001, PUBLICATION NATURAL, V38 PELLING M, 1997, ENVIRON URBAN, V9, P203 PELLING M, 1998, J INT DEV, V10, P469 PELLING M, 1999, GEOFORUM, V30, P249 PELLING M, 2001, SOCIAL NATURE THEORY, P170 PEREZ C, 1996, URBANIZACION MUNICIP PORTES A, 1998, ANNU REV SOCIOL, V24, P1 POTTER R, 1998, CITY DEV WORLD PRIETO JPS, 2001, SPECIAL PUBLICATION, V38 PUTZEL J, 1997, J INT DEV, V9, P251 SANDERSON D, 2000, ENVIRON URBAN, V12, P93 VARGAS T, 1994, ORG BASE SANTO DOMIN WISNER B, 1996, PREPARING BIG ONE TO WISNER B, 1998, APPL GEOGR, V18, P25 WRATTEN E, 1995, ENVIRON URBAN, V7, P11 NR 56 TC 2 J9 INT DEV PLAN REV BP 59 EP 76 PY 2002 PD FEB VL 24 IS 1 GA 560UX UT ISI:000176100700005 ER PT J AU Endfield, GH Tejedo, IF O'Hara, SL TI Conflict and cooperation: Water, floods, and social response in colonial Guanajuato, Mexico SO ENVIRONMENTAL HISTORY LA English DT Article C1 Univ Nottingham, Nottingham NG7 2RD, England. RP Endfield, GH, Univ Nottingham, Nottingham NG7 2RD, England. CR ACOSTA VG, 1993, LA RED, P2 ARROYO RZ, 1960, NARACIONES LEYENDAS, V1 BALLARD C, 1986, J INTERDISCIPLINARY, P359 BARRETT EM, 1973, LATINAMERIKAS, P71 BERRA MO, 1938, HIST DOMINACION ESPA, P242 BERZ G, 1997, P WORKSH IND IND CLI BLAIKIE PM, 1994, RISK NATURAL HAZARDS, V1, P1 BRADING D, 1978, HACIENDAS RANCHES ME, P14 BUTZER KW, 1993, CULTURE PLACE FORM, P89 BUTZER KW, 1995, GLOBAL LAND USE CHAN, P151 BUTZER KW, 1997, QUATERN INT, V43, P161 CARR DW, 1998, CONQUISTA BAJIO ORIG, P21 CHEVALIER F, 1952, FORMACION GRANDES DO COE MD, 1994, MEXICO OLMECS AZTECS COOK S, 1960, IBEROAMERICANA COPE RD, 1995, LIMITS RACIAL DOMINA DAANISH M, 2002, PROF GEOGR, P94 DELAROSA PM, 1965, APUNTE HIST IRAPUATO ENDFIELD GH, 1997, ENVIRON HIST, P2525 ENDFIELD GH, 1999, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V89, P402 ENDFIELD GH, 2004, IN PRESS J HIST GEOG FLORESCANO E, 1976, DESCRIPCIONES EC REG FLORESCANO E, 1976, ORIGEN DESAROLLO PRO FLORESCANO E, 1980, NEXOS, P9 FLORESCANO E, 1995, BREVE HIST SEQUIA ME GOMEZ A, 1995, COMERCIO INTERNO NUE GROVE JM, 1983, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V5, P265 GROVE JM, 1988, LITTLE ICE AGE GROVE JM, 1995, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V30, P223 GROVE JM, 2001, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V48, P53 GRUNDMANN R, 2000, SOC SCI INFORM, P155 HASSAN F, 2000, WAY WIND BLOWS CLIMA, P121 HUMBOLDT A, 1973, ENSAYO POLITICO REIN JAUREGUI E, 1997, QUATERN INT, P7 KUNDZEWICZ ZW, 2000, WATER INT, V25, P66 LADURIE EL, 1983, HIST CLIMAT AN MIL LANDSBERG HE, 1980, J INTERDISCIPLINARY, P631 LICATE JA, 1981, 201 U CHIC DEP GEOGR LIPSETTRIVERA S, 1980, HISPANIC AM HIST REV, P463 LIPSETTRIVERA S, 1992, AMERICAS, P463 LIPSETTRIVERA S, 1999, DEFEND OUR WATER BLO LIPSETTRIVERA S, 1999, ESTUDIOS AMBIENTE AM, V1 LIVERMAN DM, 1990, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, P49 LIVERMAN DM, 1999, NAT RESOUR J, P99 MARMOLEJO L, 1967, EFEMERIDES GUANAJUAT, V1 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 MELVILLE EGK, 1990, COMP STUD SOC HIST, V32, P24 MELVILLE EGK, 1994, PLAGUE SHEEP ENV CON METCALFE SE, 1987, GEOGR J, V153, P211 METCALFE SE, 1989, GEOARCHAEOLOGY, V4, P119 MEYER MC, 1997, AGUA SUOEST HISPANIC MORENO H, 1986, F DEAJOFRIN DIARIO V MORENO WJ, 1958, ESTUDIOS HIST COLONI, P63 MURPHY ME, 1986, IRRIGATION BAJIO REG, P7 NASH DJ, 2002, INT J CLIMATOLOGY, P821 OHARA SL, 1993, GEOGR J, P51 OHARA SL, 1995, HOLOCENE, V5, P485 OUWENEEL A, 1996, SHADOWS ANAHUAC ECOL PELLICER SN, 1994, AGR INDIGENA PASADO, P109 PIERRE J, 1970, HIST SOC NUEVO MUNDO, P247 PREM HJ, 1984, EXPLORATIONS ETHNOHI, P205 PREM HJ, 1992, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, P444 RILEY JD, 2002, AMERICAS, P355 ROMERO R, 1975, THESIS I NACL ANTR H SANDERS WT, 1992, MESOAMERICA ANTIQUIT, P172 SCHWARTZ B, 1996, QUALITATIVE SOCIOLOG, V19, P275 SIMPSON LB, 1952, EXPLOITATION LAND CE SLUYTER A, 1997, YB C LAT AM GEOGR AU, P27 SLUYTER A, 2001, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, P410 SLUYTER A, 2002, COLONIALISM LANDSCAP SMIT B, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, P233 STEINBERG T, 2000, ACTS GOD UNNATURAL H SWAN SC, 1981, J INTERDISCIPLINARY, V14, P633 TAYLOR WB, 1972, LANDLORD PEASANT COL TUTINO J, 1988, INSURRECTION REVOLUT TUTINO J, 2001, OTHER REBELLION POPU WEBRE S, 1990, HISPANIC AM HIST REV, P57 WHITMORE TM, 1992, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V82, P402 WILKEN GC, 1987, GOOD FARMERS TRADITI WILLIAMS B, 1972, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, P618 NR 80 TC 0 J9 ENVIRON HIST BP 221 EP 247 PY 2004 PD APR VL 9 IS 2 GA 822CT UT ISI:000221513100003 ER PT J AU Patz, JA Engelberg, D Last, J TI The effects of changing weather on public health SO ANNUAL REVIEW OF PUBLIC HEALTH LA English DT Review C1 Johns Hopkins Univ, Sch Publ Hlth, Dept Environm Hlth Sci, Baltimore, MD 21205 USA. Univ British Columbia, Vancouver Hosp, Vancouver, BC V5Z 1M9, Canada. Univ British Columbia, Hlth Sci Ctr, Vancouver, BC V5Z 1M9, Canada. Univ Ottawa, Dept Epidemiol, Ottawa, ON K1H 8M5, Canada. RP Patz, JA, Johns Hopkins Univ, Sch Publ Hlth, Dept Environm Hlth Sci, Baltimore, MD 21205 USA. AB Many diseases are influenced by weather conditions or display strong seasonality, suggestive of a possible climatic contribution. Projections of future climate change have, therefore, compelled health scientists to re-examine weather/disease relationships There are three projected physical consequences of climate change: temperature rise, sea level rise, and extremes in the hydrologic cycle. This century, the Earth has warmed by about 0.5 degrees centigrade, and the mid-range estimates of future temperature change and sea level rise are 2.0 degrees centigrade and 49 centimeters, respectively, by the year 2100. Extreme weather variability associated with climate change may especially add an important new stress to developing nations that are already vulnerable as a result of environmental degradation, resource depletion, overpopulation, or location (e.g. low-lying coastal deltas). The regional impacts of climate change will vary widely depending on existing population vulnerability. Health outcomes of climate change can be grouped into those of: (a) direct physical consequences, e.g, heat mortality or drowning; (b) physical/chemical sequelae, e.g. atmospheric transport and formation of air pollutants; (c) physical/biological consequences, e.g. response of vector- and waterborne diseases, and food production; and (d) sociodemographic impacts, e.g. climate or environmentally induced migration or population dislocation. Better understanding of the linkages between climate variability as a determinant of disease will be important, among other key factors, in constructing predictive models to guide public health prevention. 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V106, P147 PATZ JA, 1999, CURR OPIN MICROBIOL, V2, P445 PATZ JA, 2000, IN PRESS ENV HLTH PE PITT S, 1998, LANCET, V352, P1279 POPE CA, 1995, ENVIRON HEALTH PERSP, V103, P472 RAMLOW JM, 1990, PUBLIC HEALTH REP, V105, P283 REEVES WC, 1994, J MED ENTOMOL, V31, P323 REILLY JM, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, P427 REITER P, 1998, LANCET, V351, P839 ROGERS DJ, 1993, PARASITOL TODAY, V9, P266 ROMIEU I, 1996, AM J RESP CRIT CARE, V154, P300 ROONEY C, 1998, J EPIDEMIOL COMMUN H, V52, P482 ROPELEWSKI CF, 1987, MON WEATHER REV, V115, P1606 ROSENZWEIG C, 1993, 3 OXF U ENV CHANG UN SAMET J, 1998, ENVIRON RES, V77, P9 SARTOR F, 1995, ENVIRON RES, V70, P105 SAUNDERS MA, 1998, CENTRAL E EUROPEAN F SCHIMEL D, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, P65 SCHWARTZ J, 1994, ENVIRON RES, V64, P36 SEMENZA JC, 1996, NEW ENGL J MED, V335, P84 SEMENZA JC, 1999, AM J PREV MED, V16, P269 SERETAKIS D, 1997, JAMA-J AM MED ASSOC, V278, P1012 SHINDELL DT, 1998, NATURE, V392, P589 SHUMWAY RH, 1988, ENVIRON RES, V45, P224 SHUMWAY RH, 1992, 833136 ARB A AIR RES SIDDIQUE AK, 1991, J DIARRHOEAL DIS RES, V9, P310 STRZEPEK KM, 1995, CLIMATE CHANGES INT SUSSER M, 1996, AM J PUBLIC HEALTH, V86, P674 TAN G, 1994, ACTA SCI CICUMSTANTI, V14, P368 TAYLOR P, 1986, T ROY SOC TROP MED H, V80, P12 TESTER PA, 1991, LIMNOL OCEANOGR, V36, P1053 THURSTON GD, 1994, ENVIRON RES, V65, P271 TOMKINS AM, 1986, P NUTR SOC, V45, P289 TONG SL, 1998, LANCET, V351, P1100 WARRICK RA, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, P359 WATSON RT, 1998, REGIONAL IMPACTS CLI, V1, P1 WATTS DM, 1987, AM J TROP MED HYG, V36, P143 WENZEL RP, 1994, NEW ENGL J MED, V330, P1004 WETHERALD RT, 1995, J CLIMATE, V8, P3096 WIGLEY TML, 1999, SCI CLIMATE CHANGE G WILSON ML, 1998, J MED ENTOMOL, V35, P446 WOODRUFF BA, 1990, DISASTERS, V14, P151 ZUCKER JR, 1996, EMERG INFECT DIS, V2, P37 NR 208 TC 20 J9 ANNU REV PUBLIC HEALTH BP 271 EP 307 PY 2000 VL 21 GA 329RJ UT ISI:000087921400014 ER PT J AU Sutherland, WJ TI Restoring a sustainable countryside SO TRENDS IN ECOLOGY & EVOLUTION LA English DT Editorial Material C1 Univ E Anglia, Sch Biol Sci, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. RP Sutherland, WJ, Univ E Anglia, Sch Biol Sci, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. AB Economists, politicians, farmers, consumers and conservationists are all calling for drastic changes in agricultural policies. The current emphasis is on promoting agri-environment schemes, and recent work shows that, although some schemes can be beneficial, others generate negligible gains. An alternative is to combine carefully targeted agri-environment schemes with large-scale habitat restoration. Restoration provides the opportunity to deal with several problems simultaneously, such as sea-level rise, water-catchment protection and flood defence. Pioneering schemes are showing that such restoration is possible, and there is now the opportunity to carry such restoration out more widely. CR *COUNTR LAND BUS A, 2001, CLIM CHANG RUR EC *NAT RIV AUTH, 1995, GUID UND MAN SALTM *RSPB, 2001, FUT LARG SCAL HAB RE ASHENDORFF A, 1997, J AM WATER WORKS ASS, V89, P75 BAKKER JP, 1999, TRENDS ECOL EVOL, V14, P63 DONALD PF, 2001, P ROY SOC LOND B BIO, V268, P25 FALCONER K, 2000, LAND USE POLICY, V17, P269 GILG AW, 1998, FOOD POLICY, V23, P25 HENDERSON IG, 2000, ECOGRAPHY, V23, P50 KLEIJN D, 2001, NATURE, V413, P723 KOKKO H, 2001, EVOL ECOL RES, V3, P537 KREBS JR, 1999, NATURE, V400, P611 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 MYERS N, 1998, PERVERSE SUBSIDIES OVENDEN GN, 1998, J APPL ECOL, V35, P955 PEACH WJ, 2001, BIOL CONSERV, V101, P361 PRETTY JN, 2000, AGR SYST, V65, P113 ROBINSON RA, IN PRESS J APPL ECOL SPURGEON J, 1998, MAR POLLUT BULL, V37, P373 SUTHERLAND WJ, 2001, TRENDS ECOL EVOL, V16, P261 TILMAN D, 2001, SCIENCE, V292, P281 VANDERPLOEG RR, 1999, NATURWISSENSCHAFTEN, V86, P313 NR 22 TC 17 J9 TREND ECOL EVOLUT BP 148 EP 150 PY 2002 PD MAR VL 17 IS 3 GA 527ZB UT ISI:000174217000015 ER PT B AU White, GF Haas, JE TI Assessment of Research on Natural Hazards SO ASSESSMENT RES NATUR LA English DT Book AB Although our nation is becoming increasingly vulnerable to natural hazards, disaster-caused losses are rising and Federal assistance programs expanding, the preponderant Federal investment in natural hazards research is in studies which enforce rather than reduce the likelihood of catastrophe. It is necessary to know what social, economic, and political tradeoffs are placing millions of people in coastal areas where one day they will be hit by hurricane wind and storm surge. It is necessary to know to what extent current insurance programs, relief and rehabilitation programs, the availability of recovery funds, and protective construction create complacency about potential hazards and mitigate against adpotion of desirable land use controls, building codes and other disaster-prevention measures. It is necessary to know how technological advances in development of detection and warning systems for hurricanes, floods, earthquakes and other hazards can be more effectively translated into official and public actions to protect life and property. It is necessary to know more about the economic gains and losses involved in decisions for or against rezoning hazard areas. In other words, future research needs to focus on what can be done usefully from a technological and regulatory sense. CR BURTON I, 1978, ENV HAZARD, V1, P1 NR 0 TC 0 BP 1 EP 487 PY 1975 VL 1 ER PT J AU Folke, C Carpenter, SR Walker, BH Scheffer, M Elmqvist, T Gunderson, LH Holling, CS TI Regime shifts, resilience, and biodiversity in ecosystem management SO ANNUAL REVIEW OF ECOLOGY EVOLUTION AND SYSTEMATICS LA English DT Review C1 Stockholm Univ, Dept Syst Ecol, SE-10691 Stockholm, Sweden. Royal Swedish Acad Sci, Beijer Int Inst Ecol Econ, Stockholm, Sweden. Univ Wisconsin, Ctr Limnol, Madison, WI 53706 USA. CSIRO, Sustainable Ecosyst, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia. Wageningen Univ Agr, Aquat Ecol & Water Qual Management Grp, Wageningen, Netherlands. Emory Clin, Dept Environm Studies, Atlanta, GA 30322 USA. RP Folke, C, Stockholm Univ, Dept Syst Ecol, SE-10691 Stockholm, Sweden. AB We review the evidence of regime shifts in terrestrial and aquatic environments in relation to resilience of complex adaptive ecosystems and the functional roles of biological diversity in this context. The evidence reveals that the likelihood of regime shifts may increase when humans reduce resilience by such actions as removing response diversity, removing whole functional groups of species, or removing whole trophic levels; impacting on ecosystems via emissions of waste and pollutants and climate change; and altering the magnitude, frequency, and duration of disturbance regimes. The combined and often synergistic effects of those pressures can make ecosystems more vulnerable to changes that previously could be absorbed. As a consequence, ecosystems may suddenly shift from desired to less desired states in their capacity to generate ecosystem services. Active adaptive management and governance of resilience will be required to sustain desired ecosystem states and transform degraded ecosystems into fundamentally new and more desirable configurations. 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RESILIENCE BEHV LARG HIGGINS PAT, 2002, PHILOS T ROY SOC B, V357, P647 HILBORN R, 2003, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V100, P6564 HOLLING CS, 1973, ANNUAL REV ECOLOGY S, V4, P1 HOLLING CS, 1978, ADAPTIVE ENV ASSESSM, V3, P143 HOLLING CS, 1986, SUSTAINABLE DEV BIOS, V1, P1 HOLLING CS, 1996, CONSERV BIOL, V10, P328 HOLLING CS, 1996, ENG ECOLOGICAL CONST, P31 HOLLING CS, 1998, LINKING SOCIAL ECOLO, P342 HOLMGREN M, 2001, ECOSYSTEMS, V4, P151 HUGHES TP, 1994, SCIENCE, V265, P1547 HUGHES TP, 2003, SCIENCE, V301, P929 JACKSON JBC, 2001, SCIENCE, V293, P629 JACKSON LJ, 2003, ECOSYSTEMS, V6, P213 JEPPESEN E, 1998, STRUCTURING ROLE SUB KASPERSON JX, 1995, REGIONS RISK, V1, P1 KAUTSKY N, 1986, MAR ECOL-PROG SER, V28, P1 KELLY RD, 1976, J ECOL, V64, P553 KNOWLTON N, 1992, AM ZOOL, V32, P674 KNOWLTON N, 2001, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V98, P5419 KONAR B, 2003, ECOLOGY, V84, P174 LEVIN SA, 1999, FRAGILE DOMINION COM LUCK GW, 2003, TRENDS ECOL EVOL, V18, P331 LUDWIG D, 1978, J ANIM ECOL, V47, P315 LUDWIG D, 1997, CONSERV ECOL, V1, P1 LUDWIG D, 2001, ANNU REV ECOL SYST, V32, P481 LUNDBERG J, 2003, ECOSYSTEMS, V6, P87 MCCLANAHAN TR, 2002, ENVIRON CONSERV, V29, P460 MCCOOK LJ, 1999, CORAL REEFS, V18, P357 NAEEM S, 2003, ECOL LETT, V6, P567 NEWMAN S, 1998, AQUAT BOT, V60, P265 NORBERG J, 2001, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V98, P11376 NURNBERG GK, 1995, LIMNOL OCEANOGR, V40, P1100 NYSTROM M, 2000, TRENDS ECOL EVOL, V15, P413 NYSTROM M, 2001, ECOSYSTEMS, V4, P406 ODOWD DJ, 2003, ECOL LETT, V6, P812 OLSSON P, 2004, ECOL SOC, V9, P2 PACE ML, 1999, TRENDS ECOL EVOL, V14, P483 PAINE RT, 1998, ECOSYSTEMS, V1, P535 PAULY D, 1995, TRENDS ECOL EVOL, V10, P430 POST JR, 2002, FISHERIES, V27, P6 PTERSON GD, 1998, ECOSYSTEMS, V1, P6 REDMAN CL, 1999, HUMAN IMPACT ANCIENT SCHEFFER M, 1993, TRENDS ECOL EVOL, V8, P275 SCHEFFER M, 1997, ECOLOGY SHALLOW LAKE SCHEFFER M, 2001, NATURE, V413, P591 SCHEFFER M, 2003, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V100, P4040 SCHEFFER M, 2003, TRENDS ECOL EVOL, V18, P648 SCHOLES RJ, 1993, NYLSULEY STUDY 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DIVERSITY ZIMOV SA, 1995, AM NAT, V146, P765 NR 122 TC 0 J9 ANNU REV ECOL EVOL SYST BP 557 EP 581 PY 2004 VL 35 GA 886QT UT ISI:000226244100020 ER PT J AU de Haan, LJ TI Globalization, localization and sustainable livelihood SO SOCIOLOGIA RURALIS LA English DT Article C1 Univ Nijmegen, Ctr Int Dev Issues, Nijmegen, Netherlands. RP de Haan, LJ, Univ Nijmegen, Ctr Int Dev Issues, Nijmegen, Netherlands. AB Despite economic progress made in quite a number of countries in the former 'Third World', between 20% to 50% of the world population is still excluded from this progress. By taking sustainable livelihood as a point of departure and by paying attention to actor-structure interactions, this paper conceptualizes these processes of social inclusion and exclusion. Livelihood is represented as a whole of dynamic interactions between actors and five vital capitals i.e. human, natural, physical, financial and social capital. These vital capitals are embedded in a social, economic, political and ecological structure. Interaction between actors and structure occurs via access and agency and results in processing of capitals to build livelihood. Livelihood is sustainable if it is capable of adequately satisfying self-defined needs and securing people against shocks and stresses put on capitals by structural factors. Livelihood strategies develop in arenas of conflicting or co-operating actors. Because livelihood strategies are multiple, individuals may belong to different interest groups and therefore social inclusion and exclusion is never rigid. Globalization is interpreted as localization, meaning a dose association between homogenization and diversity or between the global and the local. Diversity it is not limited to socio-cultural domains but observed in economic and political domains too. Globalization-localization has important consequences for livelihood. The importance of the international and the local level;will increase to the detriment of the national level. On the one hand, livelihood will become increasingly world wide and therefore multi-local. The different levels of scale in vital capitals and in structure come closer to each other and perhaps will even fuse. The arena will become increasingly global and livelihood strategies will become more homogenous. On the other hand, certain local characteristics of the arena remain or will even become more marked, and consequently livelihood strategies will need to become more specific too. Nevertheless, it is doubtful whether social exclusion will become a thing of the past Therefore, global governance should have an important role in promoting sustainability of livelihoods. Global governance is explained as a global co-ordination by supra-regional and international governmental institutions of national governments balanced by an emerging international 'civil society'. Both have a task in the regulation of global markets and development co-operation will have to develop towards a global social security system. As a result, it is concluded that research on sustainable livelihood will increasingly have to become multi-dimensional, multi-local and reciprocal. 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Fdn Eni Enrico Mattei, I-30122 Venice, Italy. RP Alberini, A, Univ Maryland, AREC, 2200 Symons Hall, College Pk, MD 20742 USA. AB We use conjoint choice questions to ask a sample of public health and climate change experts contacted at professional meetings in 2003 and 2004 (n = 100) which of two hypothetical countries, A or B, they deem to have the higher adaptive capacity to certain effects of climate change on human health. These hypothetical countries are described by a vector of seven attributes, including per capita income, inequality in the distribution of income, measures of the health status of the population, the health care system, and access to information. Probit models indicate that our respondents regard per capita income, inequality in the distribution of income, universal health care coverage, and high access to information as important determinants of adaptive capacity. A universal-coverage health care system and a high level of access to information are judged to be equivalent to $12,000-$14,000 in per capita income. We use the estimated coefficients and country socio-demographics to construct an index of adaptive capacity for several countries. In panel-data regressions, this index is a good predictor of mortality in climatic disasters, even after controlling for other determinants of sensitivity and exposure, and for per capita income. We conclude that our conjoint choice questions provide a novel and promising approach to eliciting expert judgments in the climate change arena. (C) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 *U CATH LOUV, EM DAT OFDA CRED INT ADAMOWICZ W, 1994, J ENVIRON ECON MANAG, V26, P271 ADGER WN, 2000, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V90, P738 ADGER WN, 2005, CR GEOSCI, V337, P399 ALBERINI A, 2005, REG SCI URBAN ECON, V35, P327 BOXALL PC, 1996, ECOL ECON, V18, P243 BROOKS N, 2005, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V15, P151 FUSSELL E, 2005, LEAVING NEW ORLEANS GREENE WH, 2003, ECONOMETRIC ANAL GROTHMANN T, 2005, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V15, P199 HADDAD BM, 2005, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V15, P165 HANLEY N, 2001, J ECON SURV, V15, P435 KALY U, 2002, DEV B, V58, P33 KLEIN RJT, 1998, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V44, P15 KLEIN RJT, 2003, CLIMATE CHANGE MEDIT LEITH JC, 2005, WHY BOTSWANA PROSPER LOUVIERE JJ, 2000, STATED CHOICE METHOD LUERS AL, 2003, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V13, P255 MENDELSOHN R, 1994, AM ECON REV, V84, P753 MENDELSOHN R, 1996, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V80, P55 MORGAN MG, 2001, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V49, P279 MOSS RH, 2000, VULNERABILITY CLIMAT NORDHAUS WD, 1994, SCIENTIST, V82, P44 OBRIEN KL, 2004, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V64, P193 OSHIMA H, 2001, POPULATION CHANGE EC PATT AG, 2002, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V15, P185 PELLING M, 2005, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V15, P308 PHILLIPS J, 2003, COPING CLIMATE VARIA, P110 POLSKY C, 2004, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V94, P549 PUTNAM R, 1995, PS POLITICAL SCI POL, V28, P667 SADRIEH A, 2005, INEQUALITY COOPERATI SIMERMAN J, 2005, CHARLOTTE OBSER 1230 SKIDMORE M, 2002, ECON INQ, V40, P664 TAYLOR I, 2003, AFRICAN AFFAIRS, V102 TOL RSJ, 2005, ENERG POLICY, V33, P2064 YOHE GW, 2002, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V12, P25 YOHE GW, 2002, J ECON GEOGR, V2, P311 NR 38 TC 0 J9 GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANGE BP 123 EP 144 PY 2006 PD MAY VL 16 IS 2 GA 051NM UT ISI:000238167800003 ER PT J AU Mahlknecht, J Medina-Mejia, MG Garfias-Solis, J Cano-Aguilera, I TI Intrinsic aquifer vulnerability assessment: validation by environmental tracers in San Miguel de Allende, Mexico SO ENVIRONMENTAL GEOLOGY LA English DT Article C1 Inst Tecnol & Estudios Super Monterrey, Ctr Estudios Agua, Nuevo Leon 64849, Mexico. Univ Guanajuato, Ctr Invest Quim Inorgan, Guanajuato, Mexico. Univ Autonoma Estado Mexico, Ctr Interamericano Invest Recursos Agua, Toluca, Mexico. Univ Guanajuato, Fac Quim, Guanajuato, Mexico. RP Mahlknecht, J, Inst Tecnol & Estudios Super Monterrey, Ctr Estudios Agua, Ave Eugenio Garza Sada 2501, Nuevo Leon 64849, Mexico. AB Vulnerability maps are important tools for water decision makers and land-use planners for protection of aquifers against contamination. The vulnerability map, according to the parametric method SINTACX for assessing intrinsic aquifer vulnerability, was validated in a case study with chlorofluoro-carbon tracer technologies (CFC-11, CFC-12, and CFC-113) of groundwater. The tested area was the 1,295 km(2) volcano-sedimentary area of San Miguel de Allende (SMA), Mexico. From the results of this area, it appears that the vulnerability map is in parts inconsistent with the underlying groundwater flow system. Thus, the vulnerability map was corrected with tracer information. The validated vulnerability map indicates that the degree of vulnerability varies from low to moderate-high. Low vulnerability values are found in the graben extending from north to south along the SMA fault system and high values in recharge areas southeast and northwest of the study area. The investigation is a demonstration that the scientific reliability of results of the parametric method can be improved by validation with tracer techniques representing the groundwater dynamics. The flexible structure of SINTACX allows revising and adjusting scores and weights of the parameter maps to rebuild a new vulnerability map consistent with the hydrological system. CR *CEASG, 1999, EST HIDR MOD MAT AC *INEGI, 1999, CUAD EST MUN ALL *SSA, 2000, NOM127SSA11994 SECR *UGTO, 2002, APL INN REEV SIST RE *UGTO, 2004, IMP ENT COMPL TRANS *WHO, 1996, GUID DRINK WAT QUAL, V2, P940 ALANIZALVAREZ SA, 2001, REV MEXICANA CIENCIA, V18, P129 ALLER L, 1985, EPA600285018 BULLISTER JL, 1988, DEEP-SEA RES, V35, P839 BUSENBERG E, 1992, WATER RESOUR RES, V28, P2257 CIVITA M, 1994, CARTE VULNERABILITA CIVITA M, 2001, VALUTAZIONE CARTOGRA COOK PG, 1995, WATER RESOUR RES, V31, P263 DOERFLIGER N, 1999, ENVIRON GEOL, V39, P165 FLORESOROZCO A, 2004, THESIS NATL AUTONOMO FOCAZIO MJ, 2002, 1224 USGS FOSTER SSD, 1987, VULN SOIL GROUNDW PO GOGU RC, 2000, ENVIRON GEOL, V39, P549 GOLDSCHEIDER N, 2001, U FRANCHECOMTE MEMOI, V13, P167 LOBOFERREIRA JP, 2004, GEOFISICA INT, V43, P541 LODWICK WA, 1990, INT J GEOGR INF SYST, V4, P413 LOVELOCK JE, 1973, NATURE, V241, P194 MACDONALD AM, 2003, HYDROGEOL J, V11, P504 MAHLKNECHT J, 2003, THESIS U AGR LIFE SC MAHLKNECHT J, 2004, 33 INT ASS HYDR C ZA MAHLKNECHT J, 2004, ENVIRON GEOL, V45, P781 MAHLKNECHT J, 2004, HYDROGEOL J, V12, P511 MALOSZEWSKI P, 1996, IAEA TECDOC, V910, P9 MEDINAMEJIA MG, 2005, THESIS U IBEROAMERIC NAPOLITANO P, 1996, IAHS PUBLICATION, V235, P559 OSTER H, 1996, WATER RESOUR RES, V32, P2989 PERRIN J, 2004, ENVIRON GEOL, V46, P237 PLUMMER LN, 1999, ENV TRACERS SUBSURFA, P441 THOMPSON GM, 1979, WATER RESOUR RES, V15, P546 VANSTAMPVOORT D, 1995, 114 PPWB NAT HYDR RE WARNER MJ, 1985, DEEP-SEA RES, V32, P1485 NR 36 TC 0 J9 ENVIRON GEOL BP 477 EP 491 PY 2006 PD NOV VL 51 IS 3 GA 114NE UT ISI:000242672100016 ER PT J AU KUNREUTHER, H TI CHANGING SOCIETAL CONSEQUENCES OF RISKS FROM NATURAL HAZARDS SO ANNALS OF THE AMERICAN ACADEMY OF POLITICAL AND SOCIAL SCIENCE LA English DT Article RP KUNREUTHER, H, UNIV PENN,WHARTON SCH,DEPT DECIS SCI,PHILADELPHIA,PA 19174. CR ARROW K, R1108OEO RAND REP ARROW KJ, 1963, AM ECON REV, V53, P941 BURTON I, 1978, ENV HAZARD, V1, P1 COCHRANE H, 1975, NATURAL HAZARDS THEI EHRLICH I, 1972, J POLITICAL EC, V80, P623 HALL CR, 1975, NATIONAL UNDERW 0321 KATES R, 1962, 78 U CHIC DEP GEOGR KUNREUTHER H, 1973, RECOVERY NATURAL DIS LAVE L, 1972, PERSPECTIVES BENEFIT MARSHALL J, 1974, BELL J ECON, V5, P670 PRESTON JC, 1975, 10 ITH COMM RES DEV ROGERS E, 1971, COMMUNICATION INNOVA SIMON H, UNPUBLISHED SLOVIC P, NATURAL HAZARDS LOCA SLOVIC P, 1977, J RISK INSUR, V44, P237 SYFERT RK, 1972, BESTS REV, V73, P14 TVERSKY A, 1973, COGNITIVE PSYCHOL, V5, P207 TVERSKY A, 1974, SCIENCE, V185, P1124 VINSO J, 1977, MASS EMERGENCIES, V2, P205 WHITE G, 1974, NATURAL HAZARDS LOCA WILLIAMSON O, 1975, MARKETS HIERARCHIES NR 21 TC 7 J9 ANN AMER ACAD POLIT SOC SCI BP 104 EP 116 PY 1979 VL 443 IS MAY GA GW079 UT ISI:A1979GW07900011 ER PT J AU MacCracken, MC Barron, EJ Easterling, DR Felzer, BS Karl, TR TI Climate change scenarios for the US National Assessment SO BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY LA English DT Article C1 Penn State Univ, University Pk, PA 16802 USA. Lawrence Livermore Natl Lab, Livermore, CA USA. NOAA, Natl Climate Date Ctr, Asheville, NC USA. Marine Biol Lab, Woods Hole, MA 02543 USA. RP MacCracken, MC, 6308 Berkshire Dr, Bethesda, MD 20814 USA. AB In support of the U.S. National Assessment of the Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change, climate scenarios were prepared to serve as the basis for evaluating the vulnerability of environmental and societal systems to changes projected for the twenty-first century. Since publication of the results of the assessment at the end of 2000, the National Research Council's report Climate Change Science: An Analysis of Some Key Questions, and the U.S. government's U.S. Climate Action Report-2002 have both relied on the assessment's findings. Because of the importance of these findings, it is important to directly address questions regarding the representativeness and usefulness of the model-based projections on which the findings were based. In particular, criticisms have focused on whether the climate models that were relied upon adequately represented twentieth-century conditions and whether their projections of conditions for the twenty-first century were outliers. Reexamination of the approach used in developing and evaluating the climate scenarios indicates that the results from the two. primary climate modeling groups that were relied upon allowed the generation of climate scenarios that span much of the range of possible future climatic conditions projected by the larger set of model simulations, which was compiled for the IPCC's Third Assessment Report. With the set of models showing increasing agreement in their simulations of twentieth-century trends in climate and of projected changes in climate on subcontinental to continental scales, the climate scenarios that were generated seem likely to provide a plausible representation of the types of climatic conditions that could be experienced during the twenty-first century. Warming, reduced snow cover, and more intense heavy precipitation events were projected by ail models, suggesting such changes are quite likely. However, significant differences remain in the projection of changes in precipitation and of the regional departures in climate from the larger-scale patterns. For this reason, evaluating potential impacts using climate scenarios based on models exhibiting different regional responses is a necessary step to ensuring a representative analysis. Utilizing an even more encompassing set of scenarios in the future could help move from mainly qualitative toward more certain and quantitative conclusions. CR *CCSP, 2003, OUR CHANG PLAN FISC *NAST, 2000, CLIM CHANG IMP US PO *NAST, 2001, CLIM CHANG IMP US PO *NRC, 1995, NAT CLIM VAR DEC TO *NRC, 1998, CAP US CLIM MOD SUPP *NRC, 2001, CLIM CHANG SCI AN SO *USG, 2002, US CLIM ACT REP 2002 ALLEN MR, 2000, NATURE, V407, P617 BERGER A, 2001, GEOSPHERE BIOSPHERE, P119 BOER GJ, 2000, CLIM DYNAM, V16, P427 COX PM, 2000, NATURE, V408, P184 CUBASCH U, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, P525 DOHERTY R, 1999, COMP SIMULATIONS CUR DRESLER PV, 1998, WATER RESOUR UPD SUM FELZER B, 1999, J AM WATER RESOUR AS, V35, P1327 GIORGI F, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, P583 HOUGHTON JT, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995 HOUGHTON JT, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 KARL TR, 1996, B AM METEOROL SOC, V77, P279 KITTEL TGF, 1995, J BIOGEOGR, V22, P857 KITTEL TGF, 1997, 10 C APPL CLIM REN N, P219 LOFGREN B, 2000, PREPARING CHANGING C, P29 LORENZ EN, 1963, J ATMOS SCI, V20, P130 LOUTRE MF, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V46, P61 MACCRACKEN M, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE IMPAC, P13 MACCRACKEN MC, 2002, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V52, P13 MANN ME, 1999, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V26, P759 MCAVANEY BJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, P471 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 MEARNS LO, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, P739 MICHAELS PJ, 2001, REV 2001 US CLIMATE MITCHELL JFB, 1997, J CLIMATE, V10, P245 MITCHELL JFB, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, P695 NAKICENOVIC N, 2000, SPECIAL REPORT EMISS NEILSON RP, 1998, GLOB CHANGE BIOL, V4, P505 PIELKE RA, 2002, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V52, P1 QUAYLE RG, 1999, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V26, P333 REILLY JM, 2002, AGR POTENTIAL CONSEQ RIND DH, 1995, NATURAL CLIMATE VARI, P187 RISBEY JS, 2002, J CLIMATE, V15, P1036 SOUSOUNIS PJ, 2002, J GREAT LAKES RES, V28, P496 WATSON RT, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, V1, P1 ZWIERS FW, 2003, J CLIMATE, V16, P793 NR 43 TC 0 J9 BULL AMER METEOROL SOC BP 1711 EP + PY 2003 PD DEC VL 84 IS 12 GA 758YD UT ISI:000187678900027 ER PT J AU MORREN, GEB TI THE RURAL ECOLOGY OF THE BRITISH DROUGHT OF 1975-1976 SO HUMAN ECOLOGY LA English DT Article RP MORREN, GEB, RUTGERS STATE UNIV COOK COLL,DEPT HUMAN ECOL & SOCIAL SCI,NEW BRUNSWICK,NJ 08903. CR 1979, MONTHLY DIGEST STATI *NAT WAT COUNC, 1976, WE DIDNT WAIT RAIN *NAT WAT COUNC, 1977, 1976 77 ANN REP ACC *UK MIN AGR FISH F, 1967, 202 B *WELSH OFF DEP ENV, 1977, WAT IND ENGL WAL NEX BALDWIN A, 1977, GEOGRAPHICAL MAGAZIN, V49, P498 BATESON G, 1972, STEPS ECOLOGY MIND, P346 BAUMANN DD, 1972, URBANIZATION ENV, P1969 BEST G, 1972, MIDVICTORIAN BRITAIN BRIGGS A, 1970, VICTORIAN CITIES BROOKS CEP, 1928, BRIT FLOODS DROUGHTS BURTON I, 1964, NAT RESOUR J, V3, P412 BURTON I, 1974, HUM ECOL, P253 BURTON I, 1978, ENV HAZARD, V1, P1 CALDER A, 1969, PEOPLES WAR BRITAIN COURT WHB, 1967, CONCISE EC HISTORY B HADDON W, 1970, TECHNOL REV, V72, P44 HALL N, 1975, ECOLOGIST, V5, P368 HANNA LW, 1973, UK SPACE RESOURCES E, P164 HAVLICK SW, 1974, URBAN ORGANISM HOBSBAWM EJ, 1969, IND EMPIRE HOGG WH, 1969, ROLE WATER AGRICULTU, P171 HOLLOWAY S, 1977, LONDON PRESS SER MAR HOWE CW, 1967, WATER RESOUR RES, V3, P13 KARGERISON T, 1976, NEW SCI, V71, P374 KROPOTKIN P, 1899, FIELDS FACTORIES WOR LAWTON R, 1973, UK SPACE RESOURCES E, P75 MARTIN DS, 1971, ECOLOGIST, V1 MORREN GEB, 1977, SUBSISTENCE SURVIVAL, P273 MUMFORD L, 1956, MANS ROLE CHANGING F, P382 MUMFORD L, 1961, CITY HISTORY PEAK W, 1977, WATER RESOURCES B, V13, P551 PRICKETT CN, 1969, ROLE WATER AGRICULTU, P101 SLOBODKIN LB, 1968, POPULATION BIOL EVOL VAYDA A, 1977, SUBSISTENCE SURVIVAL, P411 VAYDA AP, 1974, ANNU REV ECOL SYST, V5, P183 VAYDA AP, 1975, ANNU REV ANTHROPOL, V4, P293 WADDELL E, 1975, HUM ECOL, V3, P249 WADDELL E, 1977, HUM ECOL, V5, P69 WHITE G, 1974, NATURAL HAZARDS LOCA WHITE GF, 1978, HUM ECOL, V6, P229 WISNER B, 1976, NEW SOC, V9, P546 WITTFOGEL KA, 1957, ORIENTAL DESPOTISM S NR 43 TC 9 J9 HUM ECOL BP 33 EP 63 PY 1980 VL 8 IS 1 GA JL821 UT ISI:A1980JL82100003 ER PT J AU Kashyap, A TI Water governance: learning by developing adaptive capacity to incorporate climate variability and change SO WATER SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY LA English DT Article C1 UNDP, New York, NY 10017 USA. RP Kashyap, A, UNDP, 304 E 45th St FF-9th Floor, New York, NY 10017 USA. AB There is increasing evidence that global climate variability and change is affecting the quality and availability of water supplies. Integrated water resources development, use, and management strategies, represent an effective approach to achieve sustainable development of water resources in a changing environment with competing demands. It is also a key to achieving the Millennium Development Goals. It is critical that integrated water management strategies must incorporate the impacts of climate variability and change to reduce vulnerability of the poor, strengthen sustainable livelihoods and support national sustainable development. UNDP's strategy focuses on developing adaptation in the water governance sector as an entry point within the framework of poverty reduction and national sustainable development. This strategy aims to strengthen the capacity of governments and civil society organizations to have access to early warning systems, ability to assess the impact of climate variability and change on integrated water resources management, and developing adaptation intervention through hands-on learning by undertaking pilot activities. CR MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 *UNDP UNEP WORLD B, 2002, POV CLIM CHANG RED V COSGROVE WJ, WORLD WATER VISION M NR 3 TC 0 J9 WATER SCI TECHNOL BP 141 EP 146 PY 2004 VL 49 IS 7 GA 834HB UT ISI:000222401100027 ER PT J AU Confalonieri, R Gusberti, D Bocchi, S Acutis, M TI The CropSyst model to simulate the N balance of rice for alternative management SO AGRONOMY FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT LA English DT Article C1 Commiss European Communities, Joint Res Ctr, Inst Protect & Secur Citizen, AGRIFISH Unit,MARS STAT Sector,TP 268, I-21020 Ispra, VA, Italy. Univ Milan, Sect Agron, Dept Crop Sci, I-20133 Milan, Italy. RP Confalonieri, R, Commiss European Communities, Joint Res Ctr, Inst Protect & Secur Citizen, AGRIFISH Unit,MARS STAT Sector,TP 268, I-21020 Ispra, VA, Italy. AB CropSyst is a mechanistic model developed for simulating the growth and development of potentially all herbaceous crops under potential and water/nitrogen ( N)-limited conditions. Although the model has been widely used for many crops under different pedo-climatic and management conditions, studies on the simulation of water and N balance for flooded rice are lacking. We evaluated the CropSyst model for simulating the N balance of north-Italian rice fields for scatter-seeded rice grown under continuously flooded conditions. In order to calibrate and validate the model for the processes involved with soil N transformation, data collected in field experiments carried out in northern Italy between 2002 and 2004 were used. The results show the robustness of the model in reproducing the course of the measured soil mineral nitrogen content: the Modeling Efficiencies which describe the agreement between measured and simulated trends, are in most cases positive and the model error fell almost always within the experimental error on the measurements ( P = 0.95). Moreover, the model showed the same level of reliability while simulating the nitrogen balances under different levels of nitrogen fertilization, thus depicting it as suitable for comparing N fertilization scenarios. This first attempt at using a model for simulating the nitrogen balance under flooded conditions encourages further studies because of the need of effective tools for optimizing the nitrogen management of flooded rice systems, considered significant sources of groundwater pollution and greenhouse gases in many European rice districts. CR MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 ACUTIS M, 2000, EUR J AGRON, V13, P191 ALAOUI A, 2003, HYDROLOG SCI J, V48, P455 ANGUS JF, 1996, P 2 AS CROP SCI C 21, P274 BECHINI L, 2006, ENVIRON MODELL SOFTW, V21, P1042 BLOMBACK K, 1995, ECOL MODEL, V81, P157 CAMPBELL GS, 1985, SOIL PHYS BASIC CASSMAN KG, 1993, PLANT SOIL, V155, P359 CONFALONIERI R, 2004, EUR J AGRON, V21, P223 CONFALONIERI R, 2005, ECOL MODEL, V183, P269 CONFALONIERI R, 2005, EUR J AGRON, V23, P315 CONFALONIERI R, 2005, ITAL J AGROMETEOROL, V2, P54 CORWIN DL, 1991, J ENVIRON QUAL, V20, P647 DIEKKRUGER B, 1995, ECOL MODEL, V81, P3 FOCHT DD, 1979, NITROGEN RICE, P105 GHOSH BC, 1998, ENVIRON POLLUT S1, V102, P123 HANSEN S, 1991, FERT RES, V27, P245 JUSTES E, 1994, ANN BOT-LONDON, V74, P397 KROPFF MJ, 1994, SARP RES P LOS BAN P KUSHWAHA CP, 2000, SOIL TILL RES, V56, P153 LANCASHIRE PD, 1991, ANN APPL BIOL, V119, P561 LIU CW, 2001, AGR SYST, V68, P41 LOAGUE K, 1991, J CONTAM HYDROL, V7, P51 MAHMOOD R, 1998, ECOL MODEL, V106, P201 MAJUMDAR D, 2000, AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON, V81, P163 MONTEITH JL, 1996, AGRON J, V88, P695 PANNKUK CD, 1998, AGR SYST, V57, P121 PIRMORADIAN N, 2004, AGRONOMIE, V24, P143 REDDY KR, 1982, PLANT SOIL, V67, P209 SEPPELT R, 2005, ENVIRON MODELL SOFTW, V20, P1543 SIERRA J, 2003, PLANT SOIL, V256, P333 SINGH U, 1993, USERS GUIDE CERES RI SINGH U, 1999, FIELD CROP RES, V61, P237 STOCKLE CO, 2003, EUR J AGRON, V18, P289 STUTTERHEIM NC, 1994, FERT RES, V37, P235 VANITTERSUM MK, 2003, EUR J AGRON, V18, P187 NR 36 TC 0 J9 AGRON SUSTAIN DEV BP 241 EP 249 PY 2006 PD OCT-DEC VL 26 IS 4 GA 128VJ UT ISI:000243686800003 ER PT J AU Aggarwal, PK Banerjee, B Daryaei, MG Bhatia, A Bala, A Rani, S Chander, S Pathak, H Kalra, N TI InfoCrop: A dynamic simulation model for the assessment of crop yields, losses due to pests, and environmental impact of agro-ecosystems in tropical environments. II. Performance of the model SO AGRICULTURAL SYSTEMS LA English DT Article C1 Indian Agr Res Inst, Div Environm Sci, New Delhi 110012, India. RP Aggarwal, PK, Indian Agr Res Inst, Div Environm Sci, NRL Bldg, New Delhi 110012, India. AB InfoCrop, a generic crop model, simulates the effects of weather, soils, agronomic management (planting, nitrogen, residues and irrigation) and major pests on crop growth, yield, soil carbon, nitrogen and water, and greenhouse gas emissions. This paper presents results of its evaluation in terms of its validation for rice and wheat crops in contrasting agro-environments of tropics, sensitivity to the key inputs, and also illustrates two typical applications of the model. Eleven diverse field experiments, having treatments of location, seasons, varieties, nitrogen management, organic matter, irrigation, and multiple pest incidences were used for validation. Grain yields in these experiments varied from 2.8 to 7.2 ton ha(-1) in rice and from 3.6 to 5.5 ton ha(-1) in wheat. The results indicated that the model was generally able to explain the differences in biomass, grain yield, emissions of carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxides, and long-term trends in soil organic carbon, in diverse agro-environments. The losses in dry matter and grain yield due to different pests and their populations were also explained satisfactorily. There were some discrepancies in the simulated emission of these gases during first few days after sowing/transplanting possibly because of the absence of tillage effects in the model. The sensitivity of the model to change in ambient temperature, crop duration and pest incidence was similar to the available field knowledge. The application of the model to quantify multiple pests damage through iso-loss curves is demonstrated. Another application illustrated is the use of InfoCrop for analyzing the trade-offs between increasing crop production, agronomic management strategies, and their global warming potential. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 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RP RIEBSAME, WE, UNIV COLORADO,DEPT GEOG & NAT HAZARDS RES,BOULDER,CO 80309. 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CR 1974, CHINA RECONSTRUCTS S 1979, FAZER DISTRITO MAIS *AM CAB LIMP, 1975, PLAN DES LIMP *MOZAM DEP TUR, 1976, ROADS BRIDG MOZ *MOZAM GOV, 1973, 4 PLAN FOM, V10 *MOZAM SERV HIDR, 1971, REC AG SUP MOC *UN DIS REL ORG, 1977, DIS PREV MIT COMP CU, V5 *UN DIS REL ORG, 1977, REV PRIOR SUBJ AR NA, CH3 ARAUJO M, 1979, GEOGRAFIA MOCAMBIQUE BEYER J, 1974, NATURAL HAZARDS BURTON I, 1978, ENV HAZARD, V1, P1 DUFFY J, 1969, AFRICA HDB GREGORY S, 1969, ENV LANDUSE AFRICA KUDER M, 1975, MOCAMBIQUE WISSENSCH NICHOLS T, 1974, NATURAL HAZARDS NURGLAIEV K, 1979, AGRICULTURA MOCAMBIQ ONWELZO B, 1977, LANDUSE DEV RAMACHANDRAN R, 1974, NATURAL HAZARDS RINEY T, 1977, SSA72600040 UNEP CON TINLEY K, 1971, ACTAS S CONSERVACAO WISNER B, 1976, DISASTERS, V1, P47 WISNER B, 1978, DISASTERS, V2, P79 NR 22 TC 1 J9 DISASTERS BP 293 EP 306 PY 1979 VL 3 IS 3 GA HS011 UT ISI:A1979HS01100012 ER PT J AU Greppin, H Degli Agosti, R Priceputu, AM TI From viability envelopes to sustainable societies: A place for various and efficient economical and cultural expressions on the planet SO ARCHIVES DES SCIENCES LA English DT Article C1 Univ Geneva, Dept Plant Biol & Bot, CH-1204 Geneva 4, Switzerland. Univ Geneva, Univ Ctr Human Ecol & Environm Sci, CUEH, Uni Mail, CH-1211 Geneva, Switzerland. Univ Geneva, HEC Management Studies, Logilab, Uni Mail, CH-1211 Geneva 4, Switzerland. RP Greppin, H, Univ Geneva, Dept Plant Biol & Bot, Pl Univ 3, CH-1204 Geneva 4, Switzerland. AB The concept of viability envelopes (physical, chemical, biological levels) is developed as well as the general consequences and conditions to put in place a global and local sustainable development as defined by official institutions. The three logics and associated regulation processes that define a viable relation-space are presented. Some sentinel variables are proposed. There are, for example, the population life expectancy (PLE) and net photosynthetic production (NPP) on a soil or a sea of ecological quality, as well as the mean temperature and atmospheric CO2 variation velocities. These elementary indicators permit us to follow and evaluate the degree of interaction between human oxygen respiration and energetic consumption with the photosynthetic oxygen production by green plants, as well as the correlation with the thermic and greenhouse effect. The increase or decrease of PLE and NPP as well as the phase-space evolution of the thermic and CO2 pattern can give us a precocious information, for the near future, on the sense of sustainability (positive or negative way) provoked by a socio-economic pattern and energetic choice. A cybernetical model is presented as well as different ways of positive adaptation and management. 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RP Muldavin, JSS, Univ Calif Los Angeles, Dept Geog, Los Angeles, CA 90095 USA. AB Over the last 5,000 years serious environmental problems-deforestation, desertification, erosion, and widespread pollution of air, land, and water-have prevailed throughout most of China, brought about by a diverse set of social and political contexts. In this paper I focus on an enduring contradiction associated with the post-1978 reforms, namely accelerated environmental resource degradation in rural areas amid unprecedented national economic growth. Declining entitlements to assets and social capital in China's rural village populations are a crucial aspect of altered state-peasant relations, as these are increasingly mediated by the market during China's transition to a hybrid economy. This has resulted in changing patterns of resource use, impacting both the environment and peasant livelihoods. A brief assessment of China's postrevolutionary environmental policy and management practices provides the context for detailed case studies in Henan Province. These examples highlight the relationship between political-economic changes and environmental policy and management. Contrary to reform rhetoric, rural peasants' embracing of reform policies does not necessarily optimize their welfare or promote sustainable use of resources, The case studies reveal alternative pathways for villages, ones that ought to be brought into the policy debate spotlight. 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RP Keys, E, Arizona State Univ, Dept Geog, Tempe, AZ 85287 USA. AB Agricultural change encompasses both social and ecological alterations, some negative, some positive. Studies of land change and land degradation treat plant pest and diseases triggered by agricultural change in an inconsistent fashion. A study of the southern Yucatan region of Mexico reveals that the shift to commercial chili cultivation yields both positive and negative consequences, akin to the concepts of creative destruction and destructive creation. The negative consequences are dramatically amplified by persistent plant pest and diseases apparently triggered by the means of cultivation and by the inclusion of the region into a national marketing structure. Thus, while providing economic benefits to some of the farmers of the region the short- and long-term impacts of chili cultivation on farmer households is mixed. Studies of agricultural land-use change and household economics will benefit by incorporating plant pests and diseases as one of the suite of factors involved in land degradation. Copyright (C) 2004 John Wiley Sons, Ltd. 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Univ Arizona, Water Resources Res Ctr, Tucson, AZ 85721 USA. Univ Arizona, Inst Study Planet Earth, CLIMAS, Tucson, AZ 85721 USA. RP Jacobs, KL, Univ Arizona, Dept Soil Water & Environm Sci, 350 N Campbell, Tucson, AZ 85721 USA. AB In response to recent severe drought conditions throughout the state, Arizona recently developed its first drought plan. The Governor's Drought Task Force focused on limiting the economic and social impacts of future droughts through enhanced adaptation and mitigation efforts. The plan was designed to maximize the use of new, scientific breakthroughs in climate monitoring and prediction and in vulnerability assessment. The long term objective of the monitoring system is to allow for evaluation of conditions in multiple sectors and at multiple scales. Stakeholder engagement and decision support are key objectives in reducing Arizona's vulnerability in light of the potential for severe, sustained drought. The drivers of drought conditions in Arizona include the El Nino-Southem Oscillation, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. CR *AM ASS STAT CLIM, 2001, POL STAT CLIM VAR CH *AR GOV DROUGHT TA, 2004, WELC GDTF *NAT WEATH SERV, 2004, CURR OV DROUGHT COND *NEW MEX DROUGHT T, 2003, NEW MEX DROUGHT PLAN *WGA, 2004, DROUGHT EARL WARN SY ACUNASOTO R, 2002, EMERG INFECT DIS, V8, P360 ADAMS DK, 1997, B AM METEOROL SOC, V78, P2197 ALLAN RJ, 1996, EL NINO SO OSCILLATI BROWN DP, 2002, ATMOSPHERIC SCI LETT CASTRO CL, 2001, J CLIMATE, V14, P4449 CAYAN DR, 1999, J CLIMATE, V12, P2881 COLE J, 2002, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V29 DALY C, 1994, J APPL METEOROL, V33, P140 DALY C, 2004, P 14 AM MET SOC C AP DIAZ HF, 2001, INT J CLIMATOL, V21, P1845 EBBESMEYER CC, 1991, P 7 ANN PAC CLIM PAC, P115 ENFIELD DB, 2001, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V28, P2077 GEDALOF Z, 2001, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V28, P1515 GIBBONS M, 1994, NEW PRODUCTION KNOWL GRAY ST, 2003, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V30 GUTZLER DS, 2002, WEATHER FORECAST, V17, P1163 HACKOS JT, 1998, USER TASK ANAL INTER HARTMANN HC, 2002, B AM METEOROL SOC, V83, P683 HEREFORD R, 2002, 11902 USGS HOERLING MP, 2002, J CLIMATE, V15, P2184 JACOBS K, 2003, P U COL NAT RES LAW JASANOFF S, 1998, HUMAN CHOICE CLIMATE, V1, P1 KILADIS GN, 1989, J CLIMATOL, V2, P1069 MANTUA NJ, 1997, B AM METEOROL SOC, V78, P1069 MCCABE GJ, 1999, INT J CLIMATOL, V19, P1399 MCCABE GJ, 2004, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V101, P12 MCKEE TB, 1993, AM MET SOC 8 C APPL, P179 MCKEE TB, 1995, AM MET SOC 9 C APPL, P233 MCKEE TB, 2000, HIST DROUGHT COLORAD MCPHEE J, 2004, DROUGHT CLIMATE ARIZ MEKO D, 1995, WATER RESOUR BULL, V31, P789 MILLER AJ, 1994, OCEANOGRAPHY, V7, P21 MOLOTCH NP, 2004, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V31 MOLOTCH NP, 2004, HYDROLOGICAL PROCESS, V18 NI FB, 2002, INT J CLIMATOL, V22, P1645 NICHOLLS N, 1999, B AM METEOROL SOC, V80, P1385 NIELSEN J, 1994, USABILITY INSPECTION REDMOND KT, 1991, WATER RESOUR RES, V27, P2381 SAREWITZ D, 2000, PREDICTION SCI DECIS SHEPPARD PR, 2002, CLIMATE RES, V21, P219 STAHLE DW, 1998, B AM METEOROL SOC, V79, P2137 STAHLE DW, 2000, EOS, V81, P212 STEINEMANN A, 2003, J AM WATER RESOUR AS, V39, P1217 STERN PC, 1999, MAKING CLIMATE FOREC SVOBODA M, 2002, B AM METEOROL SOC, V83, P1181 SWETNAM TW, 1998, J CLIMATE, V11, P3128 TUFTE ER, 1990, ENVISIONING INFORMAT WILHITE DA, 2000, DROUGHT DROUGHT MITI, P149 WILHITE DA, 2000, J AM WATER RESOUR AS, V36, P697 WILHITE DA, 2000, NATURAL HAZARDS DISA, P158 ZHANG Y, 1997, J CLIMATE, V10, P1004 NR 56 TC 1 J9 J AM WATER RESOUR ASSOC BP 437 EP 445 PY 2005 PD APR VL 41 IS 2 GA 924NP UT ISI:000228985800017 ER PT J AU Littell, JS Peterson, DL TI A method for estimating vulnerability of Douglas-fir growth to climate change in the northwestern US SO FORESTRY CHRONICLE LA English DT Article C1 Univ Washington, Coll Forest Resources, Fire & Mt Ecol Lab, Seattle, WA 98195 USA. JISAO, CSES Climate Impacts Grp, Seattle, WA 98195 USA. USDA, US Forest Serv, Pacific NW Res Stn, Seattle, WA 98103 USA. RP Littell, JS, Univ Washington, Coll Forest Resources, Fire & Mt Ecol Lab, Box 352100, Seattle, WA 98195 USA. AB Borrowing from landscape ecology, atmospheric science, and integrated assessment, we aim to understand the complex interactions that determine productivity in montane forests and utilize such relationships to forecast montane forest vulnerability under global climate change. Specifically, we identify, relationships for precipitation and temperature that govern the spatiotemporal variability in Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirb.) Franco) growth by seeking similarities in patterns of growth/climate models across a significant portion of the climatological range of the species. In the 21(st) century and beyond, sustainable forestry will depend on successful adaptation to the impacts of climate change and climate variability on forest structure and function. The combination of these foci will allow improved prediction of the fate of montane forests over a wide range of biogeoclimatic conditions in western North America and thus allow improved management strategies for adapting to climate change. We describe a multi-disciplinary strategy for analyzing growth variability as a function of climate over a broad range of local-to-regional influences and demonstrate the efficacy of this sampling method in defining regional gradients of growth-limiting factors. CR *IPCC, 2001, CLIM CHANG 2001 SCI ALLEN TFH, 1992, UNIFIED ECOLOGY BUNN AG, 2005, GLOBAL ECOL BIOGEOGR, V14, P103 CHASE JM, 2004, BIODIVERS CONSERV, V13, P1791 COOK ER, 1990, METHODS DENDROCHRONO FAGRE DB, 2000, WILDERNESS SCI TIME GRAUMLICH LJ, 1989, ECOLOGY, V70, P405 HANSEN AJ, 2001, BIOSCIENCE, V51, P765 HANSEN J, 1999, J GEOPHYS RES-ATMOS, V104, P30997 MANTUA NJ, 1997, B AM METEOROL SOC, V78, P1069 MCCABE GJ, 1999, INT J CLIMATOL, V19, P1399 MCCABE GJ, 2004, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V101, P4136 MOTE PW, 2003, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V61, P45 PETERSON DL, 1998, ECOLOGICAL SCALE THE PETERSON DW, 2000, ECOLOGY, V82, P3330 PETERSON DW, 2002, CAN J FOREST RES, V32, P1503 RUNNING SW, 1987, CAN J FOREST RES, V17, P472 SHAFER SL, 2001, ECOSYSTEMS, V4, P200 STEPHENSON NL, 1990, AM NAT, V135, P649 THOMPSON RS, 2000, ATLAS RELATIONS CLIM THORNTON PE, 1997, J HYDROL, V190, P214 WANG GL, 2003, ANNU REV ENV RESOUR, V28, P1 ZOLBROD AN, 1999, CAN J FOREST RES, V29, P1966 NR 23 TC 0 J9 FOREST CHRON BP 369 EP 374 PY 2005 PD MAY-JUN VL 81 IS 3 GA 938GL UT ISI:000229987800035 ER PT J AU Cooper, JAG McLaughlin, S TI Contemporary multidisciplinary approaches to coastal classification and environmental risk analysis SO JOURNAL OF COASTAL RESEARCH LA English DT Article C1 Univ Ulster, Sch Environm Studies, Coleraine BT52 1SA, Londonderry, North Ireland. RP Cooper, JAG, Univ Ulster, Sch Environm Studies, Coleraine BT52 1SA, Londonderry, North Ireland. AB Coastal classification or typology based on multidisciplinary data and multivariate analysis has recently emerged as a tool in coastal management. In this paper, eighteen published accounts of coastal classification procedures are reviewed in order to determine the reasons for such an increase, the variability between different approaches and the utility of each approach. The increase in use of such approaches to coastal classification may be linked to technological advances and widespread use of Geographic Information Systems (GIS). The main differences identified between the indices are in terms of scale of application, variables included, mode of analysis, mode of presentation and the nature of the risks being assessed. While many authors drew attention to limitations imposed by lack of availability of data, in general it was concluded that few indices adequately considered the physical basis for interaction between variables used in the classification procedure. In particular, while most indices recognise the need for socio-economic data, few were able to adequately incorporate such information. Those indices with the highest utility in risk assessment are considered to be those in which (a) the nature of potential perturbation and (b) the issues of management concern were clearly defined. Those in which neither is adequately defined are likely to be of use mainly as databases. A potential stepwise approach to development of specific coastal classification indices is outlined in which user needs and interrelationships between variables are examined in the planning stage. We recommend development of a GIS-based hierarchy of coastal classifications on varying spatial scales in which resolution may be adapted and variables combined differently according to specific aspects of management concern at different spatial management levels. CR *LOICZ, 1995, LOICZ REPORTS STUDIE, V3 ALLABY M, 1983, MACMILLAN DICT ENV BAINBRIDGE B, 1995, P MANAGEMENT TECHNIQ BIRD ECF, 1985, COASTALINE CHANGES G BIRD ECF, 1993, SUBMERGING COASTS EF CARTER WRG, 1988, COASTAL ENV CARTLIDGE PHT, 1990, EARLY HUM DEV, V21, P1 COOPER JAG, 1994, OCEAN COAST MANAGE, V25, P103 CULLEN P, 1990, FRESHWATER BIOL, V24, P210 DALCIN R, 1989, COASTAL ZONE 89, P98 DALCIN R, 1994, J COASTAL RES, V10, P18 DANIELS RC, 1992, ADAPTING SEA LEVEL R DAVIES JL, 1972, GEOGRAPHICAL VARIATI FLEMING CA, 1989, COASTAL ZONE 89, P4092 FRICKER A, 1988, COASTAL MANAGEMENT, V16, P111 GOLDBERG ED, 1994, COASTAL ZONE SPACE P GORNITZ V, 1989, COASTAL ZONE 89, P1345 GORNITZ V, 1990, J COASTAL RES SPECIA, V9, P201 GORNITZ V, 1991, GLOBAL PLANET CHANGE, V89, P379 GORNITZ V, 1993, CLIMATE SEA LEVEL CH GORNITZ V, 1993, ENV SCI DIVISION PUB, V3999 HOUGHTON JT, 1990, CLIMATE CHANGE IPCC HUGHES P, 1992, J COASTAL RES, V8, P868 HUGHES P, 1992, S AFR J SCI, V88, P308 JELGERSMA S, 1993, J COASTAL RES, V9, P958 JENSEN JR, 1990, INT J GEOGR INF SYST, V4, P181 KELLETAT D, 1989, J COASTAL RES, V5, P329 LEE JK, 1991, GIS LIS 91 P, P356 MCCUE J, 1995, P MAN TECHN COAST ZO NORDSTROM KF, 1989, COASTAL MANAGEMENT, V17, P25 PILKEY OH, 1993, J COASTAL RES, V9, R3 PUGH DT, 1978, COASTAL ENV, V2, P911 QUELENNEC RE, 1989, COASTAL ZONE 89, P4594 REYES E, 1993, COAST MANAGE, V21, P37 TOWNEND IH, 1994, LITTORAL 94, P965 WILLIAMS AT, 1993, COASTAL ZONE 93, P3394 NR 36 TC 5 J9 J COASTAL RES BP 512 EP 524 PY 1998 PD SPR VL 14 IS 2 GA ZJ198 UT ISI:000073189300013 ER PT J AU Gehring, C Denich, M Vlek, PLG TI Resilience of secondary forest regrowth after slash-and-burn agriculture in central Amazonia SO JOURNAL OF TROPICAL ECOLOGY LA English DT Article C1 Univ Estadual Maranhao, Sao Luis, Brazil. Univ Bonn, Ctr Dev Res, ZEF, D-5300 Bonn, Germany. RP Gehring, C, Agroecol Lab Solos, Curso Mestrado, CP 3004, BR-65054970 Sao Luis, MA, Brazil. AB This study describes forest succession following slash-and-burn agriculture in central Amazonia, based on four chronosequences (22 sites) of 2- to 25-y-old secondary regrowth and mature forest. Biomass accumulated in the form of a saturation curve: 25 y of regrowth restored half of the mature-forest biomass, 75%,) would be restored after an estimated 175 y. Biomass accumulation was accompanied by a rapid decrease in woody plant density and an increase of the positive skew of plant size distribution. Liana biomass share declined from 5.0% in young to 1.9% in old regrowth, and 1.3%) in mature forest, whereas the share of palms was low (0.5%) in young regrowth and high in old regrowth (1.8%) and mature forest (2.2%). 25-y-old regrowth was similar with mature forest in respect to woody plant density and growthform composition, but both the plant size distribution and the number of stems per plant differed strongly from mature forest. A moderate increase in land use had only minor effects on biomass accumulation, but profoundly changed structural characteristics of regrowth, pointing to a high vulnerability to degradation. Thus, the sustainability of slash-and-burn in central Amazonia may be lower than the rapid initial biomass accumulation would make it seem. CR AIDE TM, 1995, FOREST ECOL MANAG, V77, P77 ALVES DS, 1997, GLOB CHANGE BIOL, V3, P451 ARAUJO TM, 1999, FOREST ECOL MANAG, V117, P43 BRADY NC, 1996, AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON, V58, P3 BROWN S, 1990, J TROP ECOL, V6, P1 BUSCHBACHER R, 1988, J ECOL, V76, P682 CERRI CC, 1991, FOREST ECOL MANAG, V38, P247 CHAMBERS JQ, 2000, OECOLOGIA, V122, P380 CHAZDON RL, 2003, PERSPECT PLANT ECOL, V6, P51 CLARK DB, 2000, FOREST ECOL MANAG, V137, P185 CRAVO MS, 1997, R BRAS CI SOLO, V21, P607 DEOLIVEIRA AA, 1999, BIODIVERS CONSERV, V8, P1219 FEARNSIDE PM, 1992, INTERCIENCIA, V17, P19 FEARNSIDE PM, 1996, FOREST ECOL MANAG, V80, P35 FEARNSIDE PM, 2001, FOREST ECOL MANAG, V146, P115 FELDPAUSCH TR, 2004, ECOLOGICAL APPL S, V14, P164 FERGUSON BG, 2003, CONSERV BIOL, V17, P818 FINEGAN B, 1996, TRENDS ECOL EVOL, V11, P119 FOLSTER H, 1976, OECOLOG PLANTAR, V11, P297 FRIZANO J, 2003, BIOTROPICA, V35, P2 GEHRING C, 1999, BIOGEOCHEMISTRY, V45, P223 GEHRING C, 2003, ROLE BIOL NITROGEN F GEHRING C, 2004, FOREST ECOL MANAG, V195, P69 GRACE J, 2004, J ECOL, V92, P189 GUARIGUATA MR, 2001, FOREST ECOL MANAG, V148, P185 GUNDERSON LH, 2000, ANNU REV ECOL SYST, V31, P425 HARCOMBE PA, 1980, BIOTROPICA, V12, P8 HOUGHTON RA, 2000, NATURE, V403, P301 HUGHES RF, 1999, ECOLOGY, V80, P1892 JORDAN CF, 1989, AMAZONIAN RAIN FORES JUO ASR, 1996, AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON, V58, P49 KAUFFMAN JB, 1995, OECOLOGIA, V104, P397 KELLMAN MC, 1969, J TROP GEOGR, V28, P40 KENNARD DK, 2002, J TROP ECOL 1, V18, P53 KLEINMAN PJA, 1996, AGRON J, V88, P122 KLINGE H, 1975, TROPICAL ECOLOGICAL, P115 LAURANCE WF, 1999, FOREST ECOL MANAG, V118, P127 MORAES JL, 1995, SOIL SCI SOC AM J, V59, P244 MORAN EF, 1996, ECOL ECON, V18, P41 MORAN EF, 2000, FOREST ECOL MANAG, V139, P93 NASCIMENTO HEM, 2002, FOREST ECOL MANAG, V168, P311 NELSON BW, 1999, FOREST ECOL MANAG, V117, P149 OVERMAN JPM, 1994, J TROP ECOL, V10, P207 PALM CA, 1996, AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON, V58, P61 PENACLAROS M, 2003, BIOTROPICA, V35, P450 RAICH JW, 1991, ECOL APPL, V1, P399 RHOADES C, 1997, AGROFOREST SYST, V34, P7 RIBEIRO MDG, 1984, ACTA AMAZONICA, V14, P159 SALDARRIAGA JG, 1988, J ECOL, V76, P938 SALOMAO RP, 1998, FLORESTA AMAZONICA D, P99 SERRAO EAS, 1995, BRAZILIAN PERSPECTIV, P250 SILVER WL, 2000, RESTOR ECOL, V8, P394 SOMBROEK W, 2001, AMBIO, V30, P388 STEININGER MK, 2000, J TROP ECOL 5, V16, P689 SZOTT LT, 1999, AGROFOREST SYST, V47, P163 UHL C, 1987, J ECOL, V75, P377 UHL C, 1988, J ECOL, V76, P663 VIEIRA S, 2004, OECOLOGIA, V140, P468 ZARIN DJ, 2001, ECOSYSTEMS, V4, P658 ZINKE PJ, 1962, ECOLOGY, V43, P130 NR 60 TC 2 J9 J TROP ECOL BP 519 EP 527 PY 2005 PD SEP VL 21 GA 961GV UT ISI:000231650800005 ER PT J AU White, GF TI Human adjustment to floods - Response SO PROGRESS IN HUMAN GEOGRAPHY LA English DT Editorial Material RP White, GF, UNIV COLORADO,BOULDER,CO 80309. CR *FED INT FLOODPL M, 1992, ASS REP *FORD FDN EN POL P, 1974, TIM CHOOS BURTON I, 1978, ENV HAZARD, V1, P1 FLYNN J, 1995, 100 CENTURIES SOLITU HEWITT K, 1980, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V70, P306 KATES RW, 1977, ENV BEHAV MONOGRAPH, V25 MOORE JW, 1989, ARMY CORPS ENG EVOLU PALM R, 1990, NATURAL HAZARDS INTE REUSS M, 1993, WATER RESOURCES PEOP TORRY WI, 1979, CAN GEOGR, V23, P368 TREWARTHA G, 1973, PROF GEOGR, V25, P78 WALKER RA, 1979, GEOGR REV, V69, P113 WESCOAT JL, 1987, PROG HUM GEOG, V11, P41 WESCOAT JL, 1992, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V82, P587 WHITE GF, 1972, PROF GEOGR, V24, P302 WHITE GF, 1974, NATURAL HAZARDS LOCA WHITE GF, 1975, ASSESSMENT RES NATUR, V1, P1 WHITE GF, 1994, WATER RESOURCES UPDA, V97, P52 WHITE GF, 1996, AMBIO, V28, P58 WRIGHT J, 1994, WATER RESOURCES UPDA, V95, P5 NR 20 TC 0 J9 PROG HUM GEOGR BP 248 EP 250 PY 1997 PD JUN VL 21 IS 2 GA XK286 UT ISI:A1997XK28600007 ER PT J AU Klepper, G Peterson, S TI Trading hot-air. The influence of permit allocation rules, market power and the US withdrawal from the Kyoto Protocol SO ENVIRONMENTAL & RESOURCE ECONOMICS LA English DT Article C1 Kiel Inst World Econ, D-24100 Kiel, Germany. RP Klepper, G, Kiel Inst World Econ, D-24100 Kiel, Germany. AB After the conferences in Bonn and Marrakech, it is likely that international emissions trading will be realized in the near future. Major influences on the permit market are the the institutional detail, the participation structure and the treatment of hot-air. Different scenarios not only differ in their implications for the demand and supply of permits and thus the permit price, but also in their allocative effects. In this paper we discuss likely the institutional designs for permit allocation in the hot-air economies and the use of market power and quantify the resulting effects by using the computable general equilibrium model DART. It turns out that the amount of hot-air supplied will be small if hot-air economies cooperate in their decisions. Under welfare maximization, more hot-air supplied than in the case where governments try to maximize revenues from permit sales. CR *EIA, 2002, INT EN OUTL 2003 EN *IETA, 2001, IETA SUMM MARR ACC M WATSON RT, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, V1, P1 BABIKER MH, 2002, 82 MIT JOINT PROGR S BARON R, 1999, MARKET POWER MARKET BARON R, 2002, COMENVEPOCIEASLT2002 BERNSTEIN P, 1999, ENERGY J, P221 BOEHRINGER C, 2001, 0158 ZEW BOEHRINGER C, 2002, ENERGY J, V23, P51 BURNIAUX JM, 1999, IMPORTANT MARKET POW DENELZEN MGJ, 2001, 728001016 RIVM DENELZEN MGJ, 2001, 728001017 RIVM DENELZEN MGJ, 2002, CLIM POLICY, V2, P111 HALL RE, 1999, Q J ECON, V114, P83 HARRISON D, 2002, EVALUATION ALTERNATI KLAASSEN G, 2002, C GLOB TRAD KIEL 30 LOESCHEL A, 2002, EC ENV IMPLICATIONS MANNE AS, 2001, 0112 AEI BROOK JOINT MISSFELD F, 2002, 592002 FEEM PALTSEV SV, 2000, KYOTO PROTOCOL HOT A SPRINGER K, 1998, 883 KIEL I WORLD EC STEENBERGHE VV, 2003, CO2 ABATEMENT COSTS WEYANT JP, 1999, ENERGY J SPECIAL ISS NR 23 TC 1 J9 ENVIRON RESOUR ECON BP 205 EP 227 PY 2005 PD OCT VL 32 IS 2 GA 965KF UT ISI:000231948700002 ER PT J AU PORFIRIEV, BN TI THE ENVIRONMENTAL DIMENSION OF NATIONAL-SECURITY - A TEST OF SYSTEMS-ANALYSIS METHODS SO ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article RP PORFIRIEV, BN, ACAD SCI USSR,INST SYST ANAL,PROSPEKT 60-LET OCTIABRIA 9,MOSCOW 117312,USSR. AB The systems approach permits us to analyze national security as a cluster of interconnected elements, in which the environmental dimension appears to be the most important one. The environmental problem is divided into two main aspects: environmental security per se and the impact of environment on the overall status of a nation's security. It is argued here that the quality of life and health serve as both the main objective and the principal criterion of environmental security in a social system. Indices of these two factors are used in this article as indicators of the state of this type of security. They confirm that vast areas of Russia, the Ukraine, and Central Asia (especially the Aral Sea region) should be considered as presenting a substantial risk to local people and even producing global impacts on both natural and man-made systems. Environmental factors that destabilize national security are also divided into two groups: those that impact social systems directly and negatively (mainly natural disasters) and technological and sociopolitical agents that cause indirect impacts, in both war and peace time, as well as in the civil and military sectors of the economy. Developments in the former Soviet Union (the Commonwealth of Independent States) are used as an illustration of the consequences that such impacts may have on the status of national security. CR 1989, FACTS FIGURES 1990, PRAVDA 0425 1990, PRAVITELSTVENNIY VES, V40, P5 1991, ARGUMENTY FACTY, V7, P3 BABURIN VL, 1990, OPASNIYE PRIRODNIYE, P23 DERGACHEV A, 1991, IZVESTIYA, V35 GLOTOV B, 1990, PRAVDA 0511 KORYAKIN YI, 1990, ENERGETICHESKOYE STR, V8, P8 KUNREUTHER H, 1980, DECISION MAKING LOW LEGASOV VA, 1987, PRAVDA 1005, P5 MANUCHAROVA, 1991, IZVESTIYA 0120 MANUCHAROVA, 1991, IZVESTIYA 0123 NIKIPELOV BV, 1989, ATOMNAYA ENERGETIKA, V67, P22 OTWAY H, 1976, FUTURES, V8, P122 OTWAY H, 1982, RISK ANAL, V2, P69 PORFIRIEV BN, 1990, IZVESTIYA AKADEMII N, V3, P22 PORFIRIEV BN, 1991, CROIX, P32881 PORFIRIEV BN, 1991, NATIONAL SECURITY ST, V1, P111 RECHETNIKOV V, 1991, IZVESTIYA 0123 RECHETNIKOV V, 1991, IZVESTIYA 0126 SHEVCHENKO VA, 1990, OCT P SEM ASS ENV IM SIVARD RL, 1991, WORLD MILITARY SOCIA SLOVIC P, 1979, ENVIRONMENT, V21, P14 SLOVIC P, 1979, ENVIRONMENT, V21, P36 SLOVIC P, 1980, SOC RISK ASSESSMENT, P181 SLOVIC P, 1987, SCIENCE, V236, P280 STARR C, 1969, SCIENCE, V165, P1232 SVERDLIK SB, 1990, ECO, V12, P111 VASINSKY A, 1992, IZVESTIA, V56, P6 VLEK C, 1981, ORGAN BEHAV HUM PREF, V28, P235 WHELAN E, 1985, TOXIC TERROR TRUTH S YABLOKOV AV, 1989, PRAVDA 0410, P2 NR 32 TC 3 J9 ENVIRON MANAGE BP 735 EP 742 PY 1992 PD NOV-DEC VL 16 IS 6 GA JW337 UT ISI:A1992JW33700006 ER PT J AU Changnon, SA Changnon, JM Hewings, GD TI Losses caused by weather and climate extremes: A national index for the United States SO PHYSICAL GEOGRAPHY LA English DT Article C1 Changnon Climatologist, Mahomet, IL 61853 USA. Univ Illinois, Dept Geog, Urbana, IL 61801 USA. RP Changnon, SA, Changnon Climatologist, Mahomet, IL 61853 USA. AB An annual index measuring past national losses and capable of measuring future loss from weather and climate extremes was developed to help measure future shifts in climate, a subject of great concern to the global warming issue and the insurance industry. Results from climate models indicate that a changed climate owing to global warming would alter and increase many extremes, and the objective of this study was to develop a national-scale index to monitor change in monetary losses and costs from weather and climate extremes. Forty-four historical variables addressing various aspects of weather and climate extremes and their effects on the U.S. economy since the late 1940s were assessed as potential input to such an index. Frequencies of most severe weather conditions from 1950 to 1997 did not correspond well with their financial impacts. However, hurricane losses did correspond with the frequency of intense hurricanes, and tornado losses corresponded well with the number of violent tornadic storms. Quality insurance loss data for several major storm types (thunder, hail, winter, and wind storms) were available, plus quality data on flood and hurricane losses, and all were adjusted to 1997 dollars. Techniques were developed to assess the effect of seasonal climate extremes on major crop yields and costs for electricity and natural gas consumed. Trends were upward for certain key variables between 1950 and 1997, including the incidence and losses associated with winter storms, flood losses, crop losses, and incidence of heavy rains. Trends were downward for other weather-driven loss variables including hurricane losses, energy costs, thunderstorm losses, wind storm losses, and hail losses. Nine loss variables were selected to develop the U.S. annual loss index, and in rank order, based on their average annual loss values, were energy costs, followed by losses from hurricanes, floods, severe convective storms, crops, tornadoes, winter storms, hail, and wind storms. The variables chosen also will be available in future years to allow a continuing assessment using the index. The 1950-1997 average annual index value was $17.47 billion (1997 dollars), with annual values ranging from a high of $54.4 billion in 1972 to a low of $2.4 billion in 1963. The 48-year trend of the index was unchanging with three notable high loss periods: 1950-1954, 1970-1974, and 1990-1994. CR *BOARD ATM SCI CLI, 1998, ATM SCI ENT 21 CENT *FED EM MAN AG, 1997, MULT HAZ ID RISK ASS *NAT AC SCI, 1999, COST NAT DIS FRAM AS *WORLD MET ORG, 1998, WORLD CLIMATE NEWS, V12 ADAMS CR, 1997, P WORKSH SOC EC IMP, P11 CHAN KS, 2000, OPTOELEC PROP SEMIC, V8, P1 CHANGNON D, 1997, J APPL METEOROL, V36, P1202 CHANGNON D, 1998, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V38, P435 CHANGNON SA, 1972, J APPL METEOROL, V11, P1128 CHANGNON SA, 1995, J WATER RES PL-ASCE, V121, P326 CHANGNON SA, 1996, GREAT FLOOD 1993, P276 CHANGNON SA, 1999, B AM METEOROL SOC, V80, P1819 CHANGNON SA, 1999, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V42, P51 CHANGNON SA, 1999, DEV LONG TERM HAIL D CHANGNON SA, 1999, NAT HAZARDS, V18, P287 CHANGNON SA, 2000, INDEX MONITOR IMPACT EASTERLING DR, 1999, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V42, P285 EASTERLING WE, 1995, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V31, P623 GRAZULIS TP, 1991, SIGNIFICANT TORNADOE HANSEN J, 1996, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, P4113 HAYDEN BP, 1999, C POT CONS CLIM VAR, P93 KARL TR, 1995, CONSEQUENCES, V1, P3 KARL TR, 1996, B AM METEOROL SOC, V77, P279 KARL TR, 1998, B AM METEOROL SOC, V79, P231 KARL TR, 1999, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V42, P3 KARL TR, 1999, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V42, P309 KUNKEL KE, 1999, B AM METEOROL SOC, V80, P1077 KUNKEL KE, 1999, J CLIMATE 2, V12, P2515 LECOMTE DM, 1981, J APPL METEOROL, V20, P1415 MILETI DS, 1999, DISASTERS DESIGN NICHOLLS N, 1995, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V31, P231 OFFUTT SE, 1987, N CENTRAL J AGR EC, V9, P49 PIELKE RA, 1997, P WORKSH SOC EC IMP, P1 PIELKE RA, 1998, WEATHER FORECAST 2, V13, P621 PIELKE RA, 1999, SOC ASPECTS WEATHER PIELKE RA, 2000, J CLIMATE, V13, P3625 QUAYLE RG, 1980, J APPL METEOROL, V19, P241 SYLVES RT, 1998, DELSG1798 U DEL THOMPSON LM, 1986, AGRON J, V78, P649 WHITE GF, 1975, ASSESSMENT RES NATUR, V1, P1 NR 40 TC 8 J9 PHYS GEOGR BP 1 EP 27 PY 2001 PD JAN-FEB VL 22 IS 1 GA 464EF UT ISI:000170519700001 ER PT J AU Hufschmidt, G Crozier, M Glade, T TI Evolution of natural risk: research framework and perspectives SO NATURAL HAZARDS AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES LA English DT Article C1 Victoria Univ Wellington, Sch Earth Sci, Wellington, New Zealand. Univ Bonn, Dept Geog, D-5300 Bonn, Germany. RP Hufschmidt, G, Victoria Univ Wellington, Sch Earth Sci, POB 600, Wellington, New Zealand. AB This study presents a conceptual framework for addressing temporal variation in natural risk. Numerous former natural risk analyses and investigations have demonstrated that time and related changes have a crucial influence on risk. For natural hazards, time becomes a factor for a number of reasons. Using the example of landslides to illustrate this point, it is shown that: 1. landslide history is important in determining probability of occurrence, 2. the significance of catchment variables in explaining landslide susceptibility is dependent on the time scale chosen, 3. the observer's perception of the geosystem's state changes with different time spans, and 4. the system's sensitivity varies with time. Natural hazards are not isolated events but complex features that are connected with the social system. Similarly, elements at risk and their vulnerability are highly dynamic through time, an aspect that is not sufficiently acknowledged in research. Since natural risk is an amalgam of hazard and vulnerability, its temporal behaviour has to be considered as well. Identifying these changes and their underlying processes contributes to a better understanding of natural risk today and in the future. However, no dynamic models for natural risks are currently available. Dynamic behaviour of factors affecting risk is likely to create increasing connectivity and complexity. This demands a broad approach to natural risk, since the concept of risk encapsulates aspects of many disciplines and has suffered from single-discipline approaches in the past. In New Zealand, dramatic environmental and social change has occurred in a relatively short period of time, graphically demonstrating the temporal variability of the geosystem and the social system. To understand these changes and subsequent interactions between both systems, a holistic perspective is needed. This contribution reviews, available frameworks, demonstrates the need for further concepts, and gives research perspectives on a New Zealand example. CR *AUSTR GEOM SOC, 2000, AUSTR GEOMECHANICS, P49 *IUGS WORK GROUP L, 1997, LANDSL RISK ASS, P3 *STAT NZ, 2004, TOUR SAT ACC 2000 20, P38 *UN DIS REL ORG, 1982, UNDRO NAT DIS VULN A *UNDRO, 1991, MIT NAT DIS PHEN EFF ADAMS D, 1989, HITCHHIKERS GUIDE GA, P224 ALEXANDER DE, 2000, CONFRONTING CATASTRO, P282 ANDERSONBERRY LJ, 2003, NAT HAZARDS, V30, P209 BECK U, 1986, RISIKOGESELLSCHAFT W, P396 BELL PA, 1984, ENV PSYCHOL BRUNSDEN D, 1979, I BRIT GEOGRAPHERS T, V4, P436 BUCKING E, 1994, RISK ONE TERM MANY P, V3, P188 BURTON I, 1978, ENV HAZARD, V1, P1 BUTZER KW, 1996, HUMAN GEOGRAPHY ESSE, P268 CHORLEY RJ, 1962, GEOMORPHOLOGY GEN SY, B1 CHORLEY RJ, 1971, PHYS GEOGRAPHY SYSTE CHORLEY RJ, 1984, GEOMORPHOLOGY, P605 CHRISTALLER W, 1966, CENTRAL PLACES SO GE CROZIER M, 2000, DYNAMIC WELLINGTON, P137 CROZIER MJ, 1986, LANDSLIDES CAUSES CO, P252 CROZIER MJ, 1993, NZ GEOGRAPHER, V49, P35 CROZIER MJ, 1998, PROCESS MODELLING LA, P267 CROZIER MJ, 1999, ENCY ENV SCI, P371 CROZIER MJ, 1999, Z GEOMORPHOLOGIE S, V115, P141 CROZIER MJ, 2005, LANDSLIDE HAZARD RIS, P1 CROZIER MJ, 2005, LANDSLIDE HAZARD RIS, P331 CRUDEN DM, 1996, LANDSLIDES INVESTIGA, P36 CUTTER SL, 1996, PROG HUM GEOG, V20, P529 CUTTER SL, 1996, SOCIETAL RESPONSE EN, P525 CUTTER SL, 2003, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V93, P1 CUTTER SL, 2003, SOC SCI QUART, V84, P242 DAVIS WM, 1899, GEOGR J, V14, P481 DAVIS WM, 1909, GEOGRAPHICAL ESSAYS, P249 DIKAU R, 1996, LANDSLIDE RECOGNITIO, P251 ETKIN D, 1999, ENV HAZARDS, V1, P69 GILBERT GK, REPORT GEOLOGY HENRY, V170, P1877 GLADE T, 1998, ENVIRON GEOL, V35, P2 GLADE T, 2000, Z GEOMORPHOL, V122, P63 GLADE T, 2001, USE HIST DATA NATURA, P153 GLADE T, 2003, CATENA, V51, P297 GLADE T, 2003, ERDE, V134, P123 GOUDIE AS, 1993, CHALLENGE GEOGRAPHY, P117 GRAF WL, 1988, FLUVIAL PROCESSES DR, P346 HACK JT, 1960, AM J SCI A, V258, P80 HAIGH MJ, 1987, CATENA S, V10, P181 JOHNSTON RJ, 1993, CHALLENGE GEOGRAPHY, P3 KEILER M, 2004, NAT HAZARD EARTH SYS, V4, P249 KING M, 2003, PENGUIN HIST NZ, P570 KOESTLER A, 1967, GHOST MACHINE, P384 KROGER W, 2004, ZEIT, P36 LAU J, 2004, ZEIT, P35 LEILICH J, 2003, IS NATURE EVER EVIL, P32 MCLEAN G, 2000, WELLINGTON 1 YEARS E, P96 MILETI D, 1934, 6 NZ NAT HAZ C SCI P MILETI D, 1997, REV GEOFISICA, V47, P41 MILETI D, 1999, DISASTERS DESIGN REA NATHE S, 1999, NATURAL HAZARDS INFO, P2 OMAR H, 1994, AM J COMMUN PSYCHOL, V22, P273 OSTERKAMP WR, 1996, SCI NATURE GEOMORPHO, P415 PACIONE M, 2001, URBAN GEOGR, P663 PATON D, 2003, NAPIER CITY COUNCI 2 PATON D, 2004, VULNERABLE COMMUNITI PAWSON E, 1992, CHANGING PLACES NZ, P187 POHL J, 2002, GEOGRAPHISCHE RUNDSC, V54, P4 PRESTON NJ, 1999, Z GEOMORPHOLOGIE S, V115, P157 REID LM, 2002, GEOMORPHOLOGY, V49, P71 REIMER W, 1995, P 6 INT S LANDSL FEB RENN O, 1992, SOCIAL THEORIES RISK SANIDESKOHLRAUS.C, 2003, LISBON EARTHQUAKE 17, P106 SASSEN S, 1994, CITIES WORLD EC, P157 SCHUMM SA, 1965, AM J SCI, V263, P110 SCHUMM SA, 1977, FLUVIAL SYSTEM SCHUMM SA, 1979, T I BRIT GEOGR, V4, P485 SCHUMM SA, 1991, INTERPRETE EARTH 10 SCHUMM SA, 2003, FLUVIAL SYSTEM SLOVIC P, 2000, PERCEPTION RISK, P220 SMITH K, 2004, ENV HAZARDS ASSESSIN, P306 SPENGLER O, 1926, DECLINE W STEFANOVIC IL, 2003, NAT HAZARDS, V28, P229 THOMAS MF, 2001, CATENA, V42, P83 TIERNEY KJ, 1999, SOCIOL FORUM, V14, P215 TOBIN GA, 1999, ENV HAZARDS, V1, P13 TURNER BA, 1976, SOCIOL REV, V24, P753 VARNES DJ, 1984, LANDSLIDES HAZARD ZO, P63 VONBERTALANFFY L, 1950, SCIENCE, V111, P23 WEICHSELGARTNER J, 2001, DISASTER PREVENTION, V10, P85 WHITE GF, 1945, HUMAN ADJUSTMENT FLO, P29 WHITE GF, 1975, ASSESSMENT RES NATUR, V1, P1 WISNER B, 1993, GEOJOURNAL, V30, P127 WISNER B, 2003, SOCIAL PLANNING ACTI, V147, P32 WISNER B, 2004, RISK NATURAL HAZARDS, P471 WOLMAN MG, 1960, J GEOL, V68, P54 WPENCER H, 1872, STUDY SOCIOLOGY, V411 WRIGHT R, 2004, SHORT HIST PROGR ANA, P208 NR 94 TC 2 J9 NAT HAZARDS EARTH SYST SCI BP 375 EP 387 PY 2005 VL 5 IS 3 GA 939WS UT ISI:000230104000008 ER PT J AU Jose, AM Sosa, LM Cruz, NA TI Vulnerability assessment of Angat water reservoir to climate change SO WATER AIR AND SOIL POLLUTION LA English DT Article C1 NWRB,EDSA,QUEZON,PHILIPPINES. RP Jose, AM, PAGASA,1424 QUEZON AVE,QUEZON,PHILIPPINES. AB Global warming due to an anticipated doubling of carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere is expected to alter the earth's climate system within the next century. The potential changes in the climate system could affect hydrological cycles and processes. Possible impacts of climate change on water resources should be assessed to evaluate probable adaptation measures. In the Philippines, a preliminary assessment of the vulnerability of water resources to climate change and variability was undertaken. For this particular study, the Angat Reservoir was chosen as the study area Because of its socioeconomic importance, it is useful to assess its vulnerability to climate change. A rainfall-runoff simulation model, WATBAL, was used to determine the effect of temperature and rainfall changes, based on CO2 doubling, on inflow to the reservoir. Climate change scenarios developed from results from three general circulation models and incremental changes were used. The results showed that changes in temperature and rainfall could affect runoff either positively or negatively. Using the temperature and rainfall changes from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory model there was a 32% increase in runoff and with the Canadian Climate Centre Model, thee was a 15% decrease in runoff. Under a climate scenario generated by the United Kingdom Meteorological Office model, runoff is estimated to increase by 5%. The use of incremental scenarios revealed the strong sensitivity of runoff to changes in rainfall as compared with changes in temperature. CR *ASEAN SUBC CLIM A, 1982, ASEAN CLIM ATL *IPCC, 1992, SCI ASS CLIM CHANG *IPCC, 1995, CLIM CHANG 1995 IPCC, V2 *PAGASA, 1995, MONTHL MEAN ANN CLIM ASUNCION J, 1980, MEAN STREAMLINES ISO BOER GJ, 1992, J CLIMATE, V5, P1045 INNA N, 1991, SIMULATING EFFECTS G JOSE AM, 1989, THESIS U PHILIPPINES JOSE AM, 1992, PRELIMINARY ASSESSME JOSE AM, 1993, PRELIMINARY STUDY IM MITCHELL JFB, 1990, CLIMATE CHANGE IPCC ROSACAY DA, 1989, ANGAT DAM LEVEL MANA YATES D, 1994, WP9445 IIASA YATES D, 1994, WP9464 IIASA NR 14 TC 1 J9 WATER AIR SOIL POLLUT BP 191 EP 201 PY 1996 PD SEP VL 92 IS 1-2 GA VM538 UT ISI:A1996VM53800020 ER PT J AU Sutton, PC TI An empirical environmental Sustainability Index derived solely from nighttime satellite imagery and ecosystem service valuation SO POPULATION AND ENVIRONMENT LA English DT Article C1 Univ Denver, Dept Geog, Denver, CO 80208 USA. RP Sutton, PC, Univ Denver, Dept Geog, Denver, CO 80208 USA. AB This paper describes a crude yet simple Environmental Sustainability Index (ESI) derived solely from the ratio of two classified satellite images with global coverage. An ESI is calculated for each nation of the world by dividing the amount of light energy emitted by that nation as measured by a nighttime satellite image into the total value of that nation's ecosystem services as measured by a land-cover dataset and ecosystem service values estimated,by Costanza et. al. (Costanza, d'Arge et al., 1997). The strength of this ESI is its simplicity and global coverage (other ESIs involve hundreds of variables which usually entail many 'data gaps'). The utility of this ESI is not as 'the' measure of environmental sustainability but as 'a' measure that can be compared to other ESIs in interesting and informative ways. Measuring environmental sustainability is a difficult challenge that is being undertaken by more and more people and institutions using a wide variety of methods. If independent measures of sustainability do not correspond reasonably well with one another then the practical utility of deriving ESIs will be undermined because the exercise will be perceived as more political than scientific. Two sophisticated ESIs are examined and compared to this simple one: 1) The 2001 Environmental Sustainability Index derived as an initiative of the Global Leaders of Tomorrow Environment Task Force, World Economic Forum, and 2) Ecological Footprints of Nations: How much Nature do they use? How much Nature do they have? developed by Mathis Wackernagel and others as a "Rio + 5" forum study and financed by The Earth Council in Costa Rica. These two indices are a composite of many sub-indices some of which correlate highly; however, the final nationally aggregated figures of the 2001 Environmental Sustainability Index and the comparable Ecological Footprint index do not correlate at all. The Eco-Value/Night Light index described here corresponds strongly with the Ecological Footprint Index and not at all with the Environmental Sustainability Index. Some of the implications of the lack of coherence between these three measures are discussed. CR *MRJ SOL, 2000, GLOB MAR BOUND DAT CHISOLM M, 1990, EARTH TRANSFORMED HU COSTANZA R, 1991, ECOLOGICAL EC SCI MA, P1 COSTANZA R, 1997, NATURE, V387, P253 COSTANZA R, 1997, NATURES SERVICES SOC, P49 COSTANZA R, 1998, ECOL ECON, V25, P67 DAILY GC, 1992, BIOSCIENCE, V42, P761 DAILY GC, 1997, NATURES SERVICES DOLL CNH, 2000, AMBIO, V29, P159 ELVIDGE CD, 1995, PHOTOGRAMMETRIC ENG, V68, P727 ELVIDGE CD, 1997, INT J REMOTE SENS, V18, P1373 ELVIDGE CD, 1999, REMOTE SENS ENVIRON, V68, P77 FERGUSON A, 1999, ENV DEV SUSTAINABILL, V1, P149 FERGUSON ARB, 2001, ECOL ECON, V37, P1 HOLDREN JP, 1974, AM SCIENT, V62, P282 HOLDREN JP, 1991, POPULATION ENV, V12 IMHOFF ML, 1997, REMOTE SENS ENVIRON, V59, P105 KATES RW, 2001, SCIENCE, V292, P641 KONARSKA KM, 2002, ECOL ECON, V41, P491 PIMENTEL D, 1998, BIOSCIENCE, V48, P817 SAMUELJOHNSON K, 2000, PILOT ENV SUSTAINABI SAMUELJOHNSON K, 2001, 2001 ENV SUSTAINABIL SMITH C, 1995, BIOSCIENCE, V45, P478 SUTTON P, 1997, PHOTOGRAMM ENG REM S, V63, P1303 SUTTON PC, 2002, ECOL ECON, V41, P509 WACKERNAGEL M, 1996, OUR ECOLOGICAL IMPAC WACKERNAGEL M, 1997, ECOLOGICAL FOOTPRINT NR 27 TC 0 J9 POP ENVIRON BP 293 EP 311 PY 2003 PD MAR VL 24 IS 4 GA 659TQ UT ISI:000181793900001 ER PT J AU Marland, G Pielke, RA Apps, M Avissar, R Betts, RA Davis, KJ Frumhoff, PC Jackson, ST Joyce, LA Kauppi, P Katzenberger, J MacDicken, KG Neilson, RP Niles, JO Niyogi, DDS Norby, RJ Pena, N Sampson, N Xue, YK TI The climatic impacts of land surface change and carbon management, and the implications for climate-change mitigation policy SO CLIMATE POLICY LA English DT Article C1 Oak Ridge Natl Lab, Div Environm Sci, Oak Ridge, TN 37831 USA. Colorado State Univ, Dept Atmospher Sci, Ft Collins, CO 80523 USA. Natl Res Council Canada, Canadian Forestry Serv, Victoria, BC V8X 4M6, Canada. Duke Univ, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Durham, NC 27710 USA. Meteorol Off, Hadley Ctr Climate Predict, Bracknell RB12 2SZ, Berks, England. Penn State Univ, Dept Meteorol, University Pk, PA 16802 USA. Union Concerned Scientists, Cambridge, MA USA. Univ Wyoming, Dept Bot, Laramie, WY 82071 USA. US Forest Serv, Rocky Mt Res Stn, USDA, Ft Collins, CO USA. Univ Helsinki, FIN-00014 Helsinki, Finland. Aspen Global Change Inst, Aspendale, Vic, Australia. Riau Forestry, Forestry Res & Dev, Riau, Indonesia. US Forest Serv, USDA, Corvallis, OR 97331 USA. Univ Calif Berkeley, Energy & Resources Grp, Berkeley, CA 94720 USA. N Carolina State Univ, Dept Marine Earth & Atmospher Sci, Raleigh, NC 27695 USA. Pew Ctr Global Climate Change, Arlington, VA USA. Sampson Grp Inc, Arlington, VA USA. Univ Calif Los Angeles, Dept Geog, Los Angeles, CA 90024 USA. RP Marland, G, Oak Ridge Natl Lab, Div Environm Sci, Bethel valley Rd, Oak Ridge, TN 37831 USA. AB Strategies to mitigate anthropogenic climate change recognize that carbon sequestration in the terrestrial biosphere can reduce the build-up of carbon dioxide in the Earth's atmosphere. However, climate mitigation policies do not generally incorporate the effects of these changes in the land surface on the surface albedo, the fluxes of sensible and latent heat to the atmosphere, and the distribution of energy within the climate system. Changes in these components of the surface energy budget can affect the local, regional, and global climate. Given the goal of mitigating climate change, it is important to consider all of the effects of changes in terrestrial vegetation and to work toward a better understanding of the full climate system. Acknowledging the importance of land surface change as a component of climate change makes it more challenging to create a system of credits and debits wherein emission or sequestration of carbon in the biosphere is equated with emission of carbon from fossil fuels. Recognition of the complexity of human-caused changes in climate does not, however, weaken the importance of actions that would seek to minimize our disturbance of the Earth's environmental system and that would reduce societal and ecological vulnerability to environmental change and variability. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *IPCC, 1995, CLIM CHANG 1994 RAD *IPCC, 2000, LAND US LAND US CHAN *IPCC, 2001, CLIM CHANG 2001 SCI *UNFCCC, 1999, UNEPIUC992 UNFCC AVISSAR R, 1996, J GEOPHYS RES-ATMOS, V101, P7499 BETTS RA, 2000, NATURE, V408, P187 BROWN S, 2000, LAND USE LAND USE CH CHASE TN, 1996, J GEOPHYS RES-ATMOS, V101, P7393 CHASE TN, 2000, CLIM DYNAM, V16, P93 CLAUSSEN M, 2001, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V28, P1011 GEDNEY N, 2000, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V27, P3053 HANSEN JE, 1998, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V95, P12753 HENDERSONSELLER.A, 1995, FUTURE CLIMATES WORL, V16 HUSTON MA, 2003, J ENVIRON MANAGE, V67, P77 KABAT P, 2003, VEGETATION WATER HUM KLEIDON A, 1999, GLOBAL ECOL BIOGEOGR, V8, P397 LAWTON RO, 2001, SCIENCE, V294, P584 LEAN J, 1989, NATURE, V342, P411 LYNN BH, 1995, J CLIMATE, V8, P191 PIELKE RA, 1990, LANDSCAPE ECOL, V4, P133 PIELKE RA, 2001, REV GEOPHYS, V39, P151 PIELKE RA, 2002, PHILOS T A, V1797, P1705 RAMASWAMY V, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, P349 ROY SB, 2002, J GEOPHYS RES, V107 WEAVER CP, 2001, B AM METEOROL SOC, V82, P269 WERTH D, 2002, J GEOPHYS RES, V107 XUE YK, 1997, Q J ROY METEOR SOC B, V123, P1483 NR 27 TC 2 J9 CLIM POLICY BP 149 EP 157 PY 2003 PD JUN VL 3 IS 2 GA 702JD UT ISI:000184220000004 ER PT J AU Bakalowicz, M TI Karst groundwater: a challenge for new resources SO HYDROGEOLOGY JOURNAL LA English DT Article C1 Fac Ingn, ESIB, CREEN, HydroSci, Beirut 11072050, Lebanon. RP Bakalowicz, M, Fac Ingn, ESIB, CREEN, HydroSci, Riad El Solh,BP 11-514, Beirut 11072050, Lebanon. AB Karst aquifers have complex and original characteristics which make them very different from other aquifers: high heterogeneity created and organised by groundwater flow; large voids, high flow velocities up to several hundreds of m/h, high flow rate springs up to some tens of in 3/S. Different conceptual models, known from the literature, attempt to take into account all these particularities. The study methods used in classical hydrogeology-bore hole, pumping test and distributed models-are generally invalid and unsuccessful in karst aquifers, because the results cannot be extended to the whole aquifer nor to some parts, as is done in non-karst aquifers. Presently, karst hydrogeologists use a specific investigation methodology (described here), which is comparable to that used in surface hydrology. important points remain unsolved. Some of them are related to fundamental aspects such as the void structure only a conduit network, or a conduit network plus a porous matrix -, the functioning - threshold effects and nonlinearities -, the modeling of the functioning - double or triple porosity, or viscous flow in conduits - and of karst genesis. Some other points deal with practical aspects, such as the assessment of aquifer storage capacity or vulnerability, or the prediction of the location of highly productive zones. 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SO GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS LA English DT Article C1 Vrije Univ Amsterdam, Inst Environm Studies, Amsterdam, Netherlands. World Bank, Washington, DC 20433 USA. RP Tol, RSJ, Vrije Univ Amsterdam, Inst Environm Studies, Amsterdam, Netherlands. AB Neither the costs nor the benefits of adaptation to climate change have been systematically studied so far. This paper discusses the extent to which the vast body of literature on climate change impacts can provide insights into the scope and likely cost of adaptation. The ways in which the impacts literature deals with adaptation can be grouped into four categories: no adaptation, arbitrary adaptation observed adaptation (analogues), and modeled adaptation (optimization), All four cases are characterized by the simple assumptions made about the mechanisms of adaptation. No or only scant attention is paid to the process of adapting to a new climate. Adaptation analysis has to acknowledge that people will be neither dumb nor brilliant at adapting. They are likely to see the need for change, but may be constrained in their ability to adapt or in their comprehension of the permanence and direction of change, (C) 1998 Published by Elsevier Science Ltd, All rights reserved. CR *DELFT HYDR, 1993, SEA LEV RIS GLOB VUL *IPCC, 1994, WORLD COAST C NOORDW ADAMS RM, 1990, NATURE, V345, P219 ADAMS RM, 1995, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V30, P147 CARTER TR, 1994, IPCC TECHNICAL GUIDE CLINE WR, 1992, EC GLOBAL WARMING DARWIN RF, 1995, 703 US AGR DEP AGR DENNIS KC, 1995, J COASTAL RES, V14, P243 DOWNING TE, 1997, MITIGATION ADAPTATIO, V2, P19 EASTERLING WE, 1993, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V24, P23 FANKHAUSER S, 1995, ENVIRON PLANN A, V27, P299 FANKHAUSER S, 1995, VALUING CLIMATE CHAN FANKHAUSER S, 1997, IN PRESS ECOLOGICAL GADGIL S, 1988, IMPACT CLIMATE VARIA, V2 GLANTZ MH, 1988, SOC RESPONSES REGION GLANTZ MH, 1996, ADAPTING CLIMATE CHA, P407 HOPE C, 1993, ENERG POLICY, V21, P327 HULME M, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE SO AF KALKSTEIN LS, 1989, POTENTIAL EFFECTS GL KALKSTEIN LS, 1997, ENV HLTH PERSPECT, V105, P2 KATTENBERG A, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995 LEATHERMAN SP, 1995, J COASTAL RES, V14, P1 MAGALHES AR, 1996, ADAPTING CLIMATE CHA, P80 MENDELSOHN R, IN PRESS IMPACTS CLI MENDELSOHN R, 1994, AM ECON REV, V84, P753 MORRISETTE PM, 1988, SOC RESPONSES REGION NICHOLLS RJ, 1995, J COASTAL RES, V14, P303 NORDHAUS WD, 1991, ECON J, V101, P920 PARRY ML, 1988, IMPACT CLIMATE VARIA PEARCE DW, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995 REILLY JM, 1994, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V4, P24 ROSENTHAL DH, 1995, ENERGY J, V16, P77 ROSENZWEIG C, 1994, NATURE, V367, P133 SMIT B, 1996, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V33, P7 SMIT B, 1997, IN PRESS CANADIAN GE SMITHERS J, 1997, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V7, P129 SOHNGEN BL, 1996, IMPACT CLIMATE CHANG STAKHIV EZ, 1996, ADAPTATION CLIMATE C TITUS J, 1992, GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANG TITUS JG, 1991, COAST MANAGE, V19, P171 TOL RSJ, 1995, ENVIRON RESOUR ECON, V5, P353 VOLONTE C, 1995, J COASTAL RES, V14, P285 VOLONTE CR, 1995, J COASTAL RES, V14, P262 WATSON RT, 1998, REGIONAL IMPACTS CLI, V1, P1 WEST JJ, 1997, CLIMATE CHANGE RISK YOHE GW, 1996, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V32, P387 NR 46 TC 16 J9 GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANGE BP 109 EP 123 PY 1998 PD JUL VL 8 IS 2 GA 101FX UT ISI:000074859900002 ER PT J AU SWART, RJ VELLINGA, P TI THE ULTIMATE OBJECTIVE OF THE FRAMEWORK CONVENTION ON CLIMATE-CHANGE REQUIRES A NEW APPROACH IN CLIMATE-CHANGE RESEARCH SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Editorial Material C1 FREE UNIV AMSTERDAM,INST ENVIRONM STUDIES,1007 MC AMSTERDAM,NETHERLANDS. RP SWART, RJ, NATL INST PUBL HLTH & ENVIRONM PROTECT,BILTHOVEN,NETHERLANDS. AB In the Framework Convention on Climate Change an 'ultimate objective' is formulated that calls for stabilization of the concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere at a level that would allow ecosystems to adapt naturally, safeguard food supply and enable sustainable development to proceed in a sustainable manner. This paper addresses the possible contribution of science to translate this rather vague and ambiguous objective into more practicable terms. We propose a regionalized, risk-based six-step approach that couples an analysis of ecosystem vulnerability to the results of simulations of climate change. An 'ultimate objective' level could be determined in terms of stabilized concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. The level and timing of this stabilization would be determined by a political appreciation of associated risks for managed and unmanaged ecosystems. These risks would be assessed by region in an internationally coordinated scientific effort, followed by a global synthesis. CR 1992, FRAMEWORK CONVENTION DEGROOT R, 1992, FUNCTIONS NATURE JAGER J, 1988, TD225 WMO KRAUSE F, 1989, ENERGY POLICY GREENH LATOUR JB, 1993, SCI TOTAL ENVIRON S, P1513 LEEMANS R, 1994, IN PRESS IMPACTS CLI RIJSBERMAN F, 1990, TARGETS INDICATORS C SASSIN W, 1990, TARGETS INDICATORS C, P28 SWART RJ, 1989, INT ENVIRON AFFAIR, V1, P222 VELLINGA P, 1991, CLIMATE CHANGE SCI I, P129 NR 10 TC 4 J9 CLIMATIC CHANGE BP 343 EP 349 PY 1994 PD APR VL 26 IS 4 GA NQ960 UT ISI:A1994NQ96000001 ER PT J AU Rajan, SC TI Climate change dilemma: technology, social change or both? An examination of long-term transport policy choices in the United States SO ENERGY POLICY LA English DT Article C1 Tellus Inst, Energy Grp, Boston, MA 02116 USA. RP Rajan, SC, Tellus Inst, Energy Grp, 11 Arlington St, Boston, MA 02116 USA. AB Time is fast running out for formulating a viable global climate policy regime even as it seems obvious that the major initiative will have to come from the United States, which Currently appears indisposed to take any meaningful action at all. This paper reviews the prospects for emissions reductions in the US passenger transport sector and the technical, economic, social, and political barriers to developing policies that focus solely on technology or pricing. Using scenarios it shows that, in order to meet stringent emissions targets over the coming half-century, technology and pricing policies may have to be supplemented by strategies to change life-styles and land uses in ways that effectively reduce car dependence. In the medium to long term, bold initiatives that treat vehicle users as citizens capable of shifting their interests and behaviour could form kernels of social change that in turn provide opportunities for removing many of the social and political constraints. (c) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 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RP Walker, G, 37 Regwood St, Glasgow G41 3JN, Lanark, Scotland. AB In this article, I criticize environmental sociology's conventional diagnosis of its methodological situation and overly narrow definition of its field. I argue for a greater engagement with the natural science base and consideration of anthropological approaches. I start with conceptual analysis, identifying the human-environment relationship as a proactive two-way interaction. I then present an outline of global environmental dynamics, highlighting the unequal size of human activities on geosphere and biosphere scale, and the role of the biosphere as manager of the geosphere, this as context for the human population problem. Three types of environmental problems are next identified: urban-industrial, rural-agrarian, and high hazard exposure. These are seen as forming a continuum, with anthropogenic and natural factors synergizing at the centre. I comment on their geographic distribution, noting Europe's limited and specific environmental experience. Lastly I attempt an overview without biological metaphors of the human-environment relationship through time, commenting on its inherent imbalances and how these might be diagnosed. I conclude that sociology's bias to modernity and the West renders it inadequate to the global environmental question. A wider and deeper spacio-temporal consideration is needed, with the whole continuum of environmental problems considered. For this, environmental sociology should seek a synthesis with cultural anthropology centring on the anthropological concept of culture, an approach, I argue, that is accessible through the sociology of Max Weber. 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UNIV DELAWARE,DEP PLANT SCI,NEWARK,DE 19717. UNIV COLORADO,CADSWES,BOULDER,CO 80309. UNIV ARKANSAS,DEPT AGRON,FAYETTEVILLE,AR 72701. UNIV FLORIDA,DEPT SOIL SCI,GAINESVILLE,FL 32611. RP SHARPLEY, AN, USDA ARS,NATL AGR WATER QUAL LAB,POB 1430,DURANT,OK 74702. AB The accelerated eutrophication of most freshwaters is limited by P inputs. Nonpoint sources of P in agricultural runoff now contribute a greater portion of freshwater inputs, due to easier identification and recent control of point sources. Although P management is an integral part of profitable agrisystems, continued inputs of fertilizer and manure P in excess of crop requirements have led to a build-up of soil P levels, which are of environmental rather than agronomic concern, particularly in areas of intensive crop and livestock production. Thus, the main issues facing the establishment of economically and environmentally sound P management systems are the identification of soil P levels that are of environmental concern; targeting specific controls for different water quality objectives within watersheds; and balancing economic with environmental values. In developing effective options, we have brought together agricultural and limnological expertise to prioritize watershed management practices and remedial strategies to mitigate nonpoint-source impacts of agricultural P. Options include runoff and erosion control and P-source management, based on eutrophic rather than agronomic considerations. Current soil test P methods may screen soils on which the aquatic bioavailability of P should be estimated. Landowner options to more efficiently utilize manure P include basing application rates on soil vulnerability to P loss in runoff, manure analysis, and programs encouraging manure movement to a greater hectareage. Targeting source areas may be achieved by use of indices to rank soil vulnerability to P loss in runoff and lake sensitivity to P inputs. 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RP Haberl, H, Klagenfurt Univ, Fac Interdisciplinary Studies, Inst Social Ecol, Schottenfeldgasse 29, A-1070 Vienna, Austria. AB This paper discusses sustainability problems related to socioeconomic energy flows based upon the societal metabolism approach. Contrary to conventional energy statistics that only include energy used in technical devices, this approach considers all kinds of energy flows related to human societies, including nutritional energy flows of humans and domesticated animals. Based upon human population data and data on the pro capite energy metabolism of hunter-gatherers and agricultural societies as well as on statistical data on industrial energy flows a time series of the global socioeconomic energetic metabolism for the last 106 years and a scenario for the next 50 years is derived. These estimates show that the total energy input of mankind has risen by several orders of magnitude since the Neolithic revolution about 10,000 years ago. Whereas the energy input of agricultural societies prior to the advent of industrial societies about 200-300 years ago did not exceed 5% of global terrestrial net primary productivity (NPP), humanity's energy input currently amounts to about 30% of global terrestrial NPP and is likely to surpass 50% in about 2050. This shows that the sheer magnitude of human-induced flows is historically unprecedented and poses at least two closely interrelated sustainability challenges: (1) a reduction of energy available to ecosystem processes that can be assessed using the concept of 'human appropriation of net primary productivity' and (2) the changes in the global carbon cycle resulting from land-use change and fossil-energy combustion. (c) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *EIA, 1999, DOEEIA048499 *EUR COMM, 1996, EUR EN 2020 SCEN APP *EUR, 2001, EC WID MAT FLOW ACC *IEA, 1995, EN BAL OECD COUNTR 1 *IEA, 1998, WORLD EN PROSP 2020 *IFIAS, 1974, EN AN WORKSH METH CO *UN, 1997, UN EN STAT YB 1995 *UN, 2001, WORLD POP PROSP 2000 *WEC, 1999, GLOB EN SCEN 2050 ADRIAANSE A, 1997, RESOURE FLOWS MAT BA AYRES RU, 1994, IND METABOLISM RESTR BITTERMANN W, 1999, STAT NACHRICHTEN, V54, P567 BOYDEN S, 1992, BIOHISTORY INTERPLAY BOYDEN S, 1997, HUMANS COMPONENTS EC, P72 BRINGEZU S, 1997, REGIONAL NATL MAT FL BUTZER KW, 1984, ARCHAEOLOGY HUMAN EC CLEVELAND CJ, 2000, ECOL ECON, V32, P301 COHEN JE, 1995, MANY PEOPLE CAN EART COOK E, 1971, SCI AM, V224, P135 FISCHERKOWALSKI M, 1997, GESELLSCHAFTLICHER S FISCHERKOWALSKI M, 1997, SOC NATUR RESOUR, V10, P61 FISCHERKOWALSKI M, 1998, J IND ECOL, V2, P61 FISCHERKOWALSKI M, 1999, ADVAN HUMAN ECOL, V8, P215 FRANL P, 1998, ADV ENERGY STUDIES E, P241 GELLNER E, 1988, PLOUGH SWORD BOOK GIAMPIETRO M, 1997, AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON, V62, P145 GIAMPIETRO M, 1997, AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON, V65, P201 GOLDEMBERG J, 1988, ENERGY SUSTAINABLE W GRUBB M, 1991, ENERGY POLICIES GREE, V1 GRUNBUHEL CM, 1999, ECOLOGIZING SOCIAL M, P57 GRUNBUHEL CM, 2003, HUM ECOL, V31, P53 HABERL H, 1997, AMBIO, V26, P143 HABERL H, 2000, ECOL ENG S1, V16, S111 HABERL H, 2000, NATUR KULTUR, V1, P32 HABERL H, 2001, J IND ECOL, V5, P11 HABERL H, 2001, J IND ECOL, V5, P71 HABERL H, 2003, LAND USE POLICY, V20, P21 HABERL H, 2004, LAND USE POLICY, V21, P199 HALL CAS, 1986, ENERGY RESOURCE QUAL KATES RW, 2001, SCIENCE, V292, P641 KRAUSMANN F, 2001, LAND USE POLICY, V18, P17 KRAUSMANN F, 2002, ECOL ECON, V41, P177 KUHN M, 1994, WIRTSCHAFT STAT, V8, P658 MARTINEZALIER J, 1987, ECOLOGICAL EC ENERGY MATTHEWS E, 2000, WEIGHT NATIONS MAT O MCDONNELL MJ, 1997, HUMANS COMPONENTS EC NETTING RM, 1981, BALANCING ALP ECOLOG NETTING RM, 1993, SMALLHOLDERS HOUSEHO ODUM HT, 1996, ENV ACCOUNTING EMERG PIMENTEL D, 1973, SCIENCE, V182, P443 PIMENTEL D, 1990, AGROECOLOGY RES ECOL, P305 PODOBNIK B, 1999, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V62, P155 RAPPAPORT RA, 1971, SCI AM, V224, P117 SCHANDL H, 2000, STAT NACHRICHTEN, V55, P128 SCIUBBA E, 2003, ENERGY, V28, P1315 SIEFERLE RP, 1982, UNTERIRDISCHE WALD SIEFERLE RP, 1997, RUCKBLICK NATUR GESC SINGH SJ, 2001, POPUL ENVIRON, V23, P71 SMIL V, 1992, GEN ENERGETICS ENERG TILMAN D, 2001, SCIENCE, V292, P281 VITOUSEK MPM, 1995, DEFINING MEASURING S, P57 VITOUSEK PM, 1986, BIOSCIENCE, V36, P368 VITOUSEK PM, 1997, SCIENCE, V277, P494 WEISZ H, 2001, INNOVATION, V14, P117 WRIGHT DH, 1990, AMBIO, V19, P189 NR 65 TC 5 J9 ENERGY BP 87 EP 99 PY 2006 PD JAN VL 31 IS 1 GA 963YV UT ISI:000231843600008 ER PT J AU Cowie, A Pingoud, K Schlamadinger, B TI Stock changes or fluxes? Resolving terminological confusion in the debate on land-use change and forestry SO CLIMATE POLICY LA English DT Review C1 NSW Dept Primary Ind, Beecroft, NSW 2119, Australia. Finnish Forest Res Inst, FI-00170 Helsinki, Finland. Cooperat Res Ctr Greenhouse Accounting, Canberra, ACT, Australia. VTT, FI-02044 Espoo, Finland. Joanneum Res Inst Energy Res, A-8010 Graz, Austria. RP Cowie, A, NSW Dept Primary Ind, POB 100, Beecroft, NSW 2119, Australia. AB This article collates definitions of some key terms commonly used in greenhouse gas reporting and accounting for the Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) sector, and highlights areas of ambiguity and divergent interpretations of key concepts. It uses the example of harvested wood products to demonstrate the impact of different interpretations. The objective is to facilitate clear communication amongst negotiators and practitioners in relation to the terms emissions, removals, sources and sink. Confusion and misunderstandings that have arisen in the past are rooted in diverging interpretations of the terms 'emissions' and 'removals' in the context of land use and wood products. One interpretation sees emissions and removals to be approximated by a change in carbon stocks in a number of selected carbon pools that may include or exclude harvested wood products. Another interpretation views emissions and removals as gross fluxes between the atmosphere and the land/wood products system. The various alternative approaches that have been proposed for reporting for harvested wood products are applicable to one or the other of these interpretations: the stock-change and production approaches, focused on stock changes, are applicable to the first interpretation; whereas the atmospheric flow and simple decay approaches focus on fluxes, as in the second interpretation. Whether emissions/removals are approximated by stock change or from gross fluxes, it is critical that a consistent approach is applied across the whole LULUCF/AFOLU sector. Approaches based on stock change are recommended over those based on fluxes. CR *AGO, 2005, AUSTR METH EST GREEN *IPCC, 2003, TERMS REF TABL CONT *UNFCCC, 1992, UN FRAM CONV CLIM CH *UNFCCC, 1997, KYOT PROT UN FRAM CO *UNFCCC, 2001, MARR ACC MARR DECL *UNFCCC, 2003, FCCCTP20037 UNFCCC *UNFCCC, 2004, GUID PREP NAT COMM P *UNFCCC, 2005, FCCCCP200410ADD2 UNF *UNFCCC, 2005, TABL COMM REP FORM L APPS M, 1997, ACCOUNTING SYSTEM CO BAGGOTT SL, 2005, UK GREENHOUSE GAS IN BROWN S, 1998, EVALUATING APPROACHE CIAIS P, 2006, IN PRESS GLOBAL GEOC COWIE AL, 2005, 38 IEA FORDROBERTSON J, 2003, 20035 MAF HOUGHTON JT, 1997, GREENHOUSE GAS INVEN HOUGHTON JT, 1997, GREENHOUSE GAS INVEN, V1 HOUGHTON JT, 1997, GREENHOUSE GAS INVEN, V3 LIM B, 1999, ENVIRON SCI POLICY, V2, P207 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 NABUURS GJ, 2001, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V49, P377 NABUURS GJ, 2003, GOOD PRACTICE GUIDAN PENMAN J, 2003, IPCC NATL GREENHOUSE PINGOUD K, 2004, 38 IEA SCHLAMADINGER B, 2003, GOOD PRACTICE GUIDAN WATSON RT, 2000, LAND USE LAND USE CH WINJUM JK, 1998, FOREST SCI, V44, P272 NR 27 TC 0 J9 CLIM POLICY BP 161 EP 179 PY 2006 VL 6 IS 2 GA 115XL UT ISI:000242767000001 ER PT J AU vanJaarsveld, AS Mutembwa, AM Rangasamy, L Hay, DG TI A global security approach towards implementing sustainable development in southern Africa SO INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT AND WORLD ECOLOGY LA English DT Article C1 EUROPEAN UNION,ZA-0001 PRETORIA,SOUTH AFRICA. UNIV NATAL,INST NAT RESOURCES,ZA-3209 SCOTTSVILLE,SOUTH AFRICA. UNIV CAMBRIDGE,FAC SOCIAL & POLIT SCI,GLOBAL SECUR FELLOWS INITIAT,CAMBRIDGE CB2 3RQ,ENGLAND. RP vanJaarsveld, AS, UNIV PRETORIA,DEPT ZOOL & ENTOMOL,ZA-0002 PRETORIA,SOUTH AFRICA. AB An interactive and incremental developmental approach to sustainable development is proposed. It requires broad public participation, is based on the development of a shared value system for civic society and norms which determine the behaviour of states. It is aimed at building commitment rather than directing change. This is achieved by simultaneoulsy harnessing the notions of 'positive human survival' adopted from Global Security theory and a co-evolutionary approach to human socio-economic constructs. Modern threats to Nation States can be regarded as 'threats without enemies', are not compatible with traditional views of sovereignty, and confronting such threats frequently requires co-operative behaviour and good neigbourliness from states. Principles likely to underpin an evolving shared value system for Nation states and civil society include: democracy, equity and diversity. In order to deal with the uncertainty of evolving socioeconomic constructs and the conceptual pluralism inherent in modern societies, public agencies need to develop significant mediation, negotiation and facilitation skills. This view has significant implications for National and Regional policy, and the democratisation of information and the development of early warning capabilities about potential threats to human security are pivotal. CR 1995, ECONOMIST 0902, P59 *COMM GLOB GOV, 1995, OUR GLOB NEIGHB *IPCC, 1992, GLOB WARM IPCC SCI A *WORLD COMM ENV DE, 1987, OUR COMM FUT ALBIN C, 1993, NEGOTIATION J JUL, P223 ALBIN C, 1995, REV INT STUD, V21, P119 BERG RJ, 1986, STRATEGIES AFRICAN D, P505 BRADY GL, 1994, INT J SUST DEV WORLD, V1, P189 DALY HE, 1980, EC ECOLOGY ETHICS ST DELROSSO SJ, 1995, DAEDALUS, V124, P175 DOMMEN E, 1994, FAIR PRINCIPLES SUST DUNLAP RE, 1993, ENVIRONMENT, V35, P7 FEYERABEND PK, 1987, FAREWELL REASON GOODLAND R, 1993, SUSTAINABLE DEV, V1, P8 HAY C, 1995, THEORY METHODS POLIT, P189 HOLDGATE M, 1996, CARE ACTION MAKING S KUIJPERS CBF, 1993, WATER SUSTAINABLE DE, P116 MANDELA N, 1995, SUMM M SADC HEADS ST MILBRATH LW, 1989, ENVISIONING SUSTAINA MISCHE PM, 1995, NONMILITARY ASPECTS, P155 MOYO S, 1993, SO AFRICAN ENV PROFI, P1 MUNASINGHE M, 1993, 3 WORLD BANK NORGAARD RB, 1994, DEV BETRAYED OHLSON T, 1994, NEW IS NOT YET BORN PRIGOGINE I, 1984, ORDER OUT OF CHAOS PRINS G, 1994, OCCASIONAL PAPER U C, V6, P1 RAMPHAL S, 1995, GLOBAL GOVERANCE, P1 ROE EM, 1996, INT J SUST DEV WORLD, V3, P1 SERAGELDIN I, 1994, ENV SUSTAINABLE DEV, V2 SYMONIDES J, 1995, NONMILITARY ASPECTS, P9 UPRETI G, 1994, ENVIRON CONSERV, V21, P18 VANJAARSVELD AS, 1996, INT J SUST DEV WORLD, V3, P15 NR 32 TC 0 J9 INT J SUSTAIN DEV WORLD ECOL BP 35 EP 48 PY 1996 PD DEC VL 3 IS 4 GA VZ444 UT ISI:A1996VZ44400003 ER PT J AU Jose, AM Cruz, NA TI Climate change impacts and responses in the Philippines: water resources SO CLIMATE RESEARCH LA English DT Article C1 PAGASA, CAB, Quezon City, Philippines. RP Cruz, NA, PAGASA, CAB, 1424 Quezon Ave, Quezon City, Philippines. AB The Philippines, like many of the world's poor countries, will be among the most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change because of its limited resources. As shown by previous studies, occurrences of extreme climatic events like droughts and floods have serious negative implications for major water reservoirs in the country. A preliminary and limited assessment of the country's water resources was undertaken through the application of general circulation model (GCM) results and climate change scenarios that incorporate incremental changes in temperature and rainfall and the use of a hydrological model to simulate the future runoff-rainfall relationship. Results showed that changes in rainfall and temperature in the future will be critical to future inflow in the Angat reservoir and Lake Lanao, with rainfall variability having a greater impact than temperature variability. In the Angat reservoir, runoff is likely to decrease in the future and be insufficient to meet future demands for water. Lake Lanao is also expected to have a decrease in runoff in the future. With the expected vulnerability of the country's water resources to global warming, possible measures to cope with future problems facing the country's water resources are identified. CR WATSON RT, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, V1, P1 *IPCC, 1996, CLIM CHANG 1995 SCI *IPCC, 1996, CLIM CHANG 1995, V2 *NAT IRR ADM, 1997, REP PHIL COUNTR STUD *NAT POW CORP IL, 1997, REP PHIL COUNTR STUD *NAT WAT RES BOARD, 1976, WAT COD PHIL IMPL RU BARADAS MW, 1996, WORKSH FOOD SEC LOS BENIOFF R, 1996, GUIDANCE VULNERABILI BOER GJ, 1992, J CLIMATE, V5, P1045 JOSE AM, 1992, PRELIMINARY ASSESSME JOSE AM, 1993, PRELIMINARY STUDY IM JOSE AM, 1996, VULNERABILITY ASSESS MANABE S, 1987, J ATMOS SCI, V44, P1211 ROSACAY DA, 1989, ANGAT DAM LEVEL MANA SANTOS DA, 1997, OVERVIEW INTEGRATED SOSA LM, 1996, INT C EXH WAT RES MA WILSON CA, 1987, J GEOPHYS RES-ATMOSP, V92, P13315 YATES D, 1994, WP9464 IIASA NR 18 TC 0 J9 CLIMATE RES BP 77 EP 84 PY 1999 PD AUG 27 VL 12 IS 2-3 GA V3096 UT ISI:000171723000004 ER PT J AU Turner, BL TI Contested identities: Human-environment geography and disciplinary implications in a restructuring academy SO ANNALS OF THE ASSOCIATION OF AMERICAN GEOGRAPHERS LA English DT Review C1 Clark Univ, Grad Sch Geog, Worcester, MA 01610 USA. 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WILLIAMS M, 1974, MAKING S AUSTR LANDS WILLIAMS M, 1983, J HIST GEOGR, V9, P1 WITHERS C, 1999, GEOGRAPHY ENLIGHTENM, P1 ZIMMERER K, 1996, CONCEPTS HUMAN GEOGR, P161 ZIMMERER KS, 1994, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V84, P108 ZIMMERER KS, 1998, NATURES GEOGRAPHY NE ZIMMERER KS, 2000, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V90, P356 NR 230 TC 11 J9 ANN ASSN AMER GEOGR BP 52 EP 74 PY 2002 PD MAR VL 92 IS 1 GA 534FP UT ISI:000174574300004 ER PT J AU Sivakumar, MVK Das, HP Brunini, O TI Impacts of present and future climate variability and change on agriculture and forestry in the arid and semi-arid tropics SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 World Meteorol Org, CH-1211 Geneva, Switzerland. Indian Meteorol Dept, Pune 411005, Maharashtra, India. Ctr Ecol & Biophys, BR-13020430 Campinas, SP, Brazil. RP Sivakumar, MVK, World Meteorol Org, 7Bis Ave Paix, CH-1211 Geneva, Switzerland. AB The arid and semi-arid regions account for approximately 30% of the world total area and are inhabited by approximately 20% of the total world population. Issues of present and future climate variability and change on agriculture and forestry in the arid and semi-arid tropics of the world were examined and discussion under each of these issues had been presented separately for Asia, Africa and Latin America. Several countries in tropical Asia have reported increasing surface temperature trends in recent decades. Although, there is no definite trend discernible in the long-term mean for precipitation for the tropical Asian region, many countries have shown a decreasing trend in rainfall in the past three decades. African rainfall has changed substantially over the last 60 yr and a number of theoretical, modelling and empirical analyses have suggested that noticeable changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme events, including floods may occur when there are only small changes in climate. Climate in Latin America is affected by the El Ni (n) over tildeo-southern oscillation (ENSO) phases and there is a close relationship between the increase and decrease of rainfall depending upon the warm or cold phases of the phenomenon. Over land regions of Asia, the projected area-averaged annual mean warming is likely to be 1.6 +/- 0.2 degrees C in the 2020s, 3.1 +/- 0.3 degrees C in the 2050s, and 4.6 +/- 0.4 degrees C in the 2080s and the models show high uncertainty in projections of future winter and summer precipitation. Future annual warming across Africa is projected to range from 0.2 degrees C per decade to more than 0.5 degrees C per decade, while future changes in mean seasonal rainfall in Africa are less well defined. In Latin America, projections indicate a slight increase in temperature and changes in precipitation. Impacts of climate variability and changes are discussed with suitable examples. Agricultural productivity in tropical Asia is sensitive not only to temperature increases, but also to changes in the nature and characteristics of monsoon. Simulations of the impacts of climate change using crop simulation models show that crop yield decreases due to climate change could have serious impacts on food security in tropical Asia. Climate change is likely to cause environmental and social stress in many of Asia's rangelands and drylands. In the arid and semi-arid tropics of Africa, which are already having difficulty coping with environmental stress, climate change resulting in increased frequencies of drought poses the greatest risk to agriculture. Impacts were described as those related to projected temperature increases, the possible consequences to water balance of the combination of enhanced temperatures and changes in precipitation and sensitivity of different crops/cropping systems to projected changes. In Latin America, agriculture and water resources are most affected through the impact of extreme temperatures (excessive heat, frost) and the changes in rainfall (droughts, flooding). Adaptation potential in the arid and semi-arid tropics of Asia, Africa and Latin America was described using suitable examples. It is emphasized that approaches need to be prescriptive and dynamic, rather than descriptive and static. 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P297 SOMARATNE S, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE VARIA, P129 SRIVASTAVA HN, 1992, MAUSAM, V43, P7 SUPPIAH R, 1997, INT J CLIMATOL, V17, P87 THORNTHWAITE CW, 1948, GEOGR REV, V38, P55 TOUKOUA D, 1986, AGROMETEOROLOG GROUN TUCKER CJ, 1991, SCIENCE, V253, P299 VERGARA G, 2001, AN 12 C BRAS AGR 3 R, P131 WAGGONER PE, 1992, INT CROP SCI, V1 WAGNER D, 1996, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V33, P385 WEBSTER PJ, 1998, J GEOPHYS RES-OCEANS, V103, P14451 WHETTON P, 1994, CLIMATE IMPACT ASSES, P21 WIGLEY TML, 1985, NATURE, V316, P106 WIJERATNE MA, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE VARIA WULLSCHLEGER SD, 1992, CAN J FOREST RES, V22, P1717 ZHU YL, 1996, INT J CLIMATOL, V16, P617 NR 137 TC 3 J9 CLIMATIC CHANGE BP 31 EP 72 PY 2005 PD MAY VL 70 IS 1-2 GA 942EG UT ISI:000230265100004 ER PT J AU Parry, ML Rosenzweig, C Iglesias, A Fischer, G Livermore, MTJ TI Climate change and world food security: a new assessment SO GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS LA English DT Article C1 Univ E Anglia, Jackson Environm Inst, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. NASA, Goddard Inst Space Studies, New York, NY 10025 USA. Univ Politecn Madrid, E-28040 Madrid, Spain. Int Inst Appl Syst Anal, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria. RP Parry, ML, Univ E Anglia, Jackson Environm Inst, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. AB Building on previous work quantitative estimates of climate change impacts on global food production have been made for the UK Hadley Centre's HadCM2 greenhouse gas only ensemble experiment and the more recent HadCM3 experiment (Hulme et al., 1999). The consequences for world food prices and the number of people at risk of hunger as defined by the Food and Agriculture Organisation(FAO, 1988) have also been assessed. Climate change is expected to increase yields at high and mid-latitudes, and lead to decreases at lower latitudes. This pattern becomes more pronounced as time progresses. The food system may be expected to accommodate such regional variations at the global level, with production, prices and the risk of hunger being relatively unaffected by the additional stress of climate change. By the 2080s the additional number of people at risk of hunger due to climate change is about 80 million people ( +/- 10 million depending on which of the four HadCM2 ensemble members is selected). However, some regions (particularly the arid and sub-humid tropics) will be adversely affected. A particular example is Africa, which is expected to experience marked reductions in yield, decreases in production, and increases in the risk of hunger as a result of climate change. The continent can expect to have between 55 and 65 million extra people at risk of hunger by the 2080s under the HadCM2 climate scenario. Under the HadCM3 climate scenario the effect is even more severe? producing an estimated additional 70 + million people at risk of hunger in Africa. (C) 1999 Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *DETR, 1997, CLIM CHANG ITS IMP G *EMF, 1995, EMF14 EN MOD FOR *FAO, 1987, 5 WORLD FOOD SURV *FAO, 1991, AGROSTAT PC *FAO, 1995, PROD YB *INT BENCHM SIT NE, 1989, DEC SUPP SYST AGR TR *WORLD BANK, 1994, WORLD POP PROJ 1994 *WORLD FOOD I, 1988, WORLD FOOD TRAD US CURE JD, 1986, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V38, P127 FISCHER G, 1988, LINKED NATL MODELS T FISCHER G, 1990, HUNGER REACH INVISIB FISCHER G, 1995, ASA SPECIAL PUBLICAT, V59 FISCHER G, 1996, NATO ASI SERIES, V137 GODWIN D, 1993, USERS GUIDE CERES RI HENDRY GR, 1993, FACE FREE AIR C02 EN HULME M, 1999, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHA S, V9, S3 JONES CA, 1986, CERES MAIZE SIMULATI JONES JW, 1989, SOYGRO V542 SOYBEAN MITCHELL JFB, 1995, NATURE, V376, P501 OTTERNACKE S, 1986, YM1500407 AGGRISTARS PEART RM, 1989, POTENTIAL EFFECTS GL RITCHIE JT, 1989, USERS GUIDE CERES MA ROSENZWEIG C, 1993, 3 U OXF ENV CHANG UN ROSENZWEIG C, 1994, IMPLICATIONS CLIMATE ROSENZWEIG C, 1994, NATURE, V367, P133 WATSON RT, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, V1, P1 WATSON RT, 1998, REGIONAL IMPACTS CLI, V1, P1 NR 27 TC 10 J9 GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANGE BP S51 EP S67 PY 1999 VL 9 GA 254HG UT ISI:000083605400005 ER PT J AU Harrison, GP Wallace, AR TI Sensitivity of wave energy to climate change SO IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON ENERGY CONVERSION LA English DT Article C1 Univ Edinburgh, Sch Engn & Elect, Edinburgh EH9 3JL, Midlothian, Scotland. RP Harrison, GP, Univ Edinburgh, Sch Engn & Elect, Edinburgh EH9 3JL, Midlothian, Scotland. AB Wave energy will have a key role in meeting renewable energy targets en route to a low carbon economy. However, in common with other renewables, it may be sensitive to changes in climate resulting from rising carbon emissions. Changes in wind patterns are widely anticipated, and this will ultimately alter wave regimes. Indeed, evidence indicates that wave heights have been changing over the last 40 years, although there is no proven link to global warming. Changes in the wave climate will affect wave energy conversion. Where the resource is restricted, there may be reductions in energy exports and, consequently, negative economic impacts. On the other hand, increased storm activity will increase installation survival risks. Here a study is presented that, for the first time, indicates the sensitivity of wave energy production and economics to changes in climate. CR ALLAN JC, 2000, EOS T AM GEOPHYS UN, V81, P561 BACON S, 1991, INT J CLIMATOL, V11, P545 BACON S, 1993, INT J CLIMATOL, V13, P423 BRESLOW PB, 2002, RENEW ENERG, V27, P585 CARTER DJT, 1988, NATURE, V332, P494 DUCKERS L, 2004, RENEWABLE ENERGY POW GNTHER H, 1998, GLOBAL ATMOSPHERE OC, V6, P121 GRAHAM NE, 2002, P 7 INT WORKSH WAV H GREVEMEYER I, 2000, NATURE, V408, P349 HARRISON GP, 2002, IEE P-GENER TRANSM D, V149, P249 HASSAN G, 2001, SCOTLANDS RENEWABLE MANWELL JF, 2002, WIND ENERGY EXPLAINE MOLLISON D, 1976, NATURE, V263, P223 MOLLISON D, 1986, HYDRODYNAMICS OCEAN, P133 PACIOREK CJ, 2002, J CLIMATE, V15, P1573 PIERSON WJ, 1964, J GEOPHYS RES, V69, P5181 THORPE TW, 1999, ETSUR120 WANG XLL, 2002, J CLIMATE, V15, P1020 WANG XLL, 2004, J CLIMATE, V17, P2368 WATSON GM, 2001, PREDICTING OFFSHORE WEISSE R, IN PRESS J CLIMATE WOOLF DK, 2002, J GEOPHYS RES, V109, P3145 YOUNG IR, 1996, ATLAS OCEANS WIND WA NR 23 TC 0 J9 IEEE TRANS ENERGY CONVERS BP 870 EP 877 PY 2005 PD DEC VL 20 IS 4 GA 990PY UT ISI:000233756900020 ER PT J AU ARNELL, NW CLARK, MJ GURNELL, AM TI FLOOD INSURANCE AND EXTREME EVENTS - THE ROLE OF CRISIS IN PROMPTING CHANGES IN BRITISH INSTITUTIONAL RESPONSE TO FLOOD HAZARD SO APPLIED GEOGRAPHY LA English DT Article RP ARNELL, NW, UNIV SOUTHAMPTON,DEPT GEOG,SOUTHAMPTON SO9 5NH,HANTS,ENGLAND. CR 1952, TIMES 0820, P2 1953, POLICYHOLDER, V71, P166 1953, POST MAGAZINE INSURA, V119, P197 1953, REVIEW, V83, P378 1953, TIMES 0203, P11 1960, ECONOMIST, V197, P636 1968, ECONOMIST, V228, P91 1969, POLICYHOLDER, V87, P509 1969, POLICYHOLDER, V87, P712 *INS EX ASS, 1952, REP FLOODS FLOOD DAM *WELSH CONS COUNC, 1981, 1981 SURV CARD FLOOD AVRIL J, 1979, DAILY TELEGRAPH 1201, P24 BURTON I, 1978, ENV HAZARD, V1, P1 CATCHPOLE WL, 1967, BIA 50 1917 1967 CLAYTON G, 1971, BRIT INSURANCE DICKSON GCA, 1981, ELEMENTS INSURANCE DOUBLET AR, 1966, J CHARTERED INSURANC, V63, P17 HODGE C, 1937, J INSURANCE I LONDON, V31, P114 MCCRINDELL AL, 1972, J CHARTERED INSURANC, V69, P87 PARKER DJ, 1982, GEOGRAPHY URBAN ENV, V5, P201 PENNINGROWSELL EC, 1977, BENEFITS FLOOD ALLEV PENNINGROWSELL EC, 1981, 11TH P INT COMM IRR, P193 PERRY AH, 1981, ENV HAZARDS BRIT ISL PLATT RH, 1979, OPTIONS IMPROVE FEDE PORTER EA, 1970, THESIS U CAMBRIDGE RELPH EC, 1968, THESIS U LONDON SLOVIC P, 1974, NATURAL HAZARDS LOCA, P187 SMITH K, 1979, HUMAN ADJUSTMENT FLO STONE, 1965, ACCIDENT INSURANCE Y SUPPLE B, 1970, ROYAL EXCHANGE ASSUR WALFORD C, 1876, INSURANCE CYCLOPEADI WEESE SH, 1978, CPCU J, V31, P186 WHITE GF, 1945, 29 U CHIC DEP GEOGR WHITE GF, 1975, ASSESSMENT RES NATUR, V1, P1 WHITE GF, 1979, NATURAL HAZARDS AUST, P15 WILLIAMS RF, 1982, THESIS U SOUTHAMPTON NR 36 TC 6 J9 APPL GEOGR BP 167 EP 181 PY 1984 VL 4 IS 2 GA SL430 UT ISI:A1984SL43000005 ER PT J AU RIEBSAME, WE DIAZ, HF MOSES, T PRICE, M TI THE SOCIAL BURDEN OF WEATHER AND CLIMATE HAZARDS SO BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY LA English DT Article C1 UNIV COLORADO,NOAA,COOPERAT INST RES ENVIRONM SCI,BOULDER,CO 80309. NOAA,ENVIRONM RES LABS,BOULDER,CO 80303. RP RIEBSAME, WE, UNIV COLORADO,CTR NAT HAZARDS RES & APPLICAT INFORMAT,BOULDER,CO 80309. CR 1979, FEDERAL RESPONSE 197 1979, PIKE BUCHANAN FLASH 1980, US SOCIAL EC EFFECTS 1982, NATIONAL OCEANIC ATM 1983, MULTIPLE HAZARD MITI 1983, REPORT NEXRAD NATION 1983, TAMPA BAY REGIONAL H 1984, 98432 US HOUS REPR P 1984, LOW ALTITUDE WIND SH 1986, B AM METEOR SOC, V67, P537 ANDERSON LR, 1984, UTAH LANDSLIDES DEBR BAKER EJ, 1976, SOCIAL IMPACT HURRIC BAKER EJ, 1980, 33 FLOR SEA GRANT CO, P13 BERAN DW, 1977, B AM METEOR SOC, V58, P1182 BERTNESS J, 1980, J APPL METEOROL, V19, P545 BRINKMANN WAR, 1975, NATURAL HAZARDS RES, V7 BUECHLEY RW, 1972, ENVIRON RES, V5, P85 BURTON I, 1978, ENV HAZARD, V1, P1 CECH I, 1976, INT J BIOMETEOR, V20, P9 CECH I, 1977, ISRAEL J MED SCI, V13, P451 CECH I, 1979, INT J BIOMETEOROL, V23, P89 CHANGNON SA, 1979, B AM METEOROL SOC, V60, P110 COCHRANE HC, 1975, NATURAL HAZARDS RES, V18 COMPTON AJ, 1984, 15TH C HURR TROP MET CROSS JA, 1980, 33 FLOR SEA GRANT CO, P156 DAVIESJONES RP, 1982, THUNDERSTORM, V2, P297 DIAZ HF, 1980, MON WEA REF, V108, P687 EDELEN GW, 1981, 1240B US GEOL SURV P, P39 ELLIS FP, 1975, ENVIRON RES, V10, P1 ELLIS FP, 1978, ENVIRON RES, V15, P504 FAICH G, 1979, AM J PUBLIC HEALTH, V69, P1050 FOSTER HD, 1980, DISASTER PLANNING FRANK RA, 1980, 33 FLOR SEA GRANT CO, P4 FRIEDSAM HT, 1962, MAN SOC DISASTER GLANTZ MH, 1984, OCEANUS, V27, P14 GLASS RL, 1979, LANCET, P485 GORDON P, 1982, SPECIAL STATISTICAL GRUNTFEST E, 1977, 31 U COL NAT HAZ RES HELBURN N, 1982, GREAT PLAINS ROCKY M, V10, P86 HENZ JF, 1981, NUREGCR2013 GEOPH RE HEUWINKEL R, 1985, DRAFT PAPER EC ANAL HILLAKER HJ, 1985, J APPL METEOROL, V24, P3 HOXIT LR, 1983, THUNDERSTORM HUMAN A, P19 HUTTON JR, 1976, MASS EMERGENCIES, V1, P261 JONES TS, 1982, JAMA-J AM MED ASSOC, V247, P3327 KARL TR, 1984, B AM METEOROL SOC, V65, P1302 KATES RW, 1980, WEATHER, V35, P1 KAY PA, 1985, P WORKSHOP PROBLEMS KESSLER E, 1983, THUNDERSTORM HUMAN A, P3 KILBOURNE EM, 1982, JAMA-J AM MED ASSOC, V247, P3332 MARMOR M, 1978, ARCH ENV HLTH, V30, P130 MARRERO J, 1980, WEATHERWISE, V33, P21 MCLOUGHLIN D, 1985, PUBLIC ADMIN REV, V45, P165 MOGIL HM, 1978, B AM METEOR SOC, V59, P560 NEUMANN CJ, 1983, REV FEDERAL RES DATA, C1 PARKER DW, 1981, 1979 US ARM CORPS EN PETAK WJ, 1982, NATURAL HAZARD RISK POSEY C, 1980, WEATHERWISE, V33, P112 QUIRK WJ, 1981, B AM METEOROL SOC, V62, P623 RASMUSSON EM, 1983, SCIENCE, V222, P1195 RIEBSAME WE, 1985, DISASTERS, V9, P262 RIEBSAME WE, 1986, TOPICAL BIBLIO, V12 ROSENWAIKE I, 1966, J AM STAT ASSOC, V61, P706 SANDERS JF, 1982, WEATHERWISE, V35, P174 SAVAGE RP, 1984, HURRICANE ALICIA GAL SCHUMAN SH, 1972, ENVIRON RES, V5, P59 SHEETS RC, 1985, B AM METEOR SOC, V64, P4 SIMPSON RH, 1981, HURRICANE ITS IMPACT STATES SJ, 1977, INT J BIOMETEOROL, V21, P7 STEELE GA, 1980, 33 FLOR SEA GRANT CO, P50 THOMPSON SA, 1982, 45 U COL NAT HAZ RES TOUT DG, 1980, INT J BIOMETEOROL, V24, P323 WHITE GF, 1975, ASSESSMENT RES NATUR, V1, P1 WHITE GF, 1975, NATURAL HAZARDS RES, V6 WHITTOW J, 1979, DIASTERS ANATOMY ENV WILHITE DA, 1984, 841 U NEBR CTR AGR M WINDHAM GO, 1977, 51 MISS STAT U SOC S WITTEN D, 1980, WEATHERWISE, V33, P159 WITTEN D, 1981, WEATHERWISE, V34, P260 WOOD RA, 1986, UNPUB SUMMARY 1985 N NR 80 TC 10 J9 BULL AMER METEOROL SOC BP 1378 EP 1388 PY 1986 PD NOV VL 67 IS 11 GA F2952 UT ISI:A1986F295200004 ER PT J AU Paskoff, RP TI Potential implications of sea-level rise for France SO JOURNAL OF COASTAL RESEARCH LA English DT Article C1 Univ Lyon 2, Dept Geog, Lyon, France. RP Paskoff, RP, 10,Sq St Florentin, F-78150 Le Chesnay, France. AB Concern is growing in France about climate change and the related issue of accelerated sea-level rise (ASLR). Although a national vulnerability assessment has not been produced, available information is sufficient to clearly identify the coastal zones which are at risk. On the Mediterranean coast, the most vulnerable area corresponds to the deltaic plain of the Rhone River, chiefly because of human actions (e.g., shortage of sediment supply as a result of dam construction; river embankments). Coastal erosion, lowland flooding, and ground water salinisation are the main impacts expected from ASLR. The Languedoc coastal barriers will move landward faster than at present, thus jeopardising dense tourist facilities. On the Atlantic coast, enhanced erosion of the Aquitaine sandy beaches is expected. Existing salt marshes do not appear threatened because mud sedimentation from soil erosion is active, but reclaimed areas will be at risk of flooding. Moderate salt intrusion is expected into the Loire estuary. The Normandy chalk cliffs may not recede faster than at present. Existing laws and regulations dealing with coastal management are sufficient to address the potential impacts which may affect populations and economic activities in the forthcoming decades as sea level rises. CR *COR, 1998, COAST ER *EZUS, 1996, PROGR RECH EL NIV LO *MIN ENV, 1991, CHANG CLIM EL NIV ME ANTHONY EJ, 1995, DIRECTIONS EUROPEAN, P199 ANTHONY EJ, 1997, J COASTAL CONSERVATI, V2, P169 AUGER C, 1992, P INT WORKSH MARG IS BECET JM, 1999, LITTORAL, P295 BOUCHARD V, 1995, MAPPEMONDE, V4, P28 CLUSAUBY C, 2003, GESTION EROSION COTE CORRE JJ, 1992, IMPACTS SEA LEVEL RI, P153 COSTA S, 1997, THESIS PARIS 1 U DEMARCQ Y, 1979, COTES ATLANTIQUES EU, P85 DRIBAULT P, 1996, ELEVATION NIVEAU MER GRASZK E, 1996, B LAB PONTS CHAUSSEE, V206, P85 IFREMER, 1999, DONNEES EC MARITIMES LATTEUX B, 1998, BAIE SOMME QUESTION, P35 LEGRAIN D, 2000, ACTES SUD AMIENS LEHIR P, 1996, ELEVATION NIVEAU MER LHOMER A, 1992, IMPACTS SEA LEVEL RI, P136 MIOSSEC A, 1998, ANN GEOGR, V600, P201 PASKOFF R, 1995, CAHIERS CONSERVATOIR, V7, P65 PASKOFF R, 1998, ANN GEOGR, V600, P113 PASKOFF R, 1998, POUR SCI, V247, P16 PASKOFF R, 2000, IMPACTS POTENTIELS C, P46 PASKOFF R, 2000, POUR SCI, V269, P21 PASKOFF R, 2001, ELEVATION MAR ESPACE PETITMAIRE N, 1991, RECHERCHE, V22, P976 PIRAZZOLI PA, 1986, J COASTAL RES, V1, P1 PONT D, 1997, REV GEOGRAPHIE LYON, V72, P23 REGRAIN R, 1980, GEOGRAPHIE PHYSIQUE ROTMANS J, 1994, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V4, P97 RUEDA F, 1985, LITTORAL HERAULT GAR SALOMON JN, 2001, TRUX LAB GEOG PHYS A, V19, P31 SUANEZ S, 1997, CR ACAD SCI II A, V324, P639 SUANEZ S, 1998, J COASTAL RES, V14, P493 SUANEZ S, 1999, REV GEOGR LYON, V1, P7 VERGER F, 1968, MARAIS WADDEN LITTOR VERGER F, 1995, CAHIERS CONSERVATOIR, V7, P75 NR 38 TC 0 J9 J COASTAL RES BP 424 EP 434 PY 2004 PD SPR VL 20 IS 2 GA 841UI UT ISI:000222956700005 ER PT J AU Metz, B Berk, M den Elzen, M de Vries, B van Vuuren, D TI Towards an equitable global climate change regime: compatibility with Article 2 of the Climate Change Convention and the link with sustainable development SO CLIMATE POLICY LA English DT Article C1 Natl Inst Publ Hlth & Environm, RIVM, NL-3720 BA Bilthoven, Netherlands. RP Metz, B, Natl Inst Publ Hlth & Environm, RIVM, POB 1, NL-3720 BA Bilthoven, Netherlands. AB In this paper we argue that the discussion on how to get to an equitable global climate change regime requires a long-term context. Some key dimensions of this discussion are responsibility, capability and development needs. Each of these, separately or in combination, has been used in designing schemes for differentiation of commitments to limit or reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Many implementation problems of these proposals are often side-stepped. In particular, some proposals may be incompatible with Article 2 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), i.e. they are unlikely to keep the option open of long-term stabilisation of atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations at relatively low levels. We present some evidence that shifting the emphasis from emission reduction to sustainable development needs can contribute significantly to relieving the threat of human-induced climate change. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. CR 2002, EXECUTIVE SUMMARY BU *IM TEAM, 2001, IM 2 2 IMPL IPCC SRE *UNFCCC, 1992, UN FRAM CONV CLIM CH *UNFCCC, 1997, UNFCCCAGBM1997MISC1A *UNFCCC, 1998, KYOTO PROTOCOL CONVE *UNFCCC, 2001, FCCCSBI200113 *WORLD BANK, 2000, WORLD DEV IND AGARWAL A, 1991, GLOBAL WARMING UNEQU BANURI T, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995 BAUMERT KA, 1999, WHAT MIGHT DEV COUNT BERK MM, 490200003NOP RIVM BERK MM, 2001, CLIMATE POLICY, V1, P465 BLANCHARD O, 2001, CAHIER RECHERCHE, V26 DENELZEN MGJ, 1999, 728001011 RIVM DENELZEN MGJ, 2001, 728001011 RIVM DEPLEDGE J, 2000, UNFCCCTP20002 DEVRIES B, 2000, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V63, P137 GROENENBERG H, 2001, ENERG POLICY, V29, P1007 GUPTA J, 2001, E0106 I ENV STUD GUPTA S, 1999, ENERG POLICY, V27, P727 HARGRAVE T, 1998, GROWTH BASELINES RED HOUGHTON J, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 HOURCADE JC, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 JACOBY HD, 1999, P MIT JOINT PROGR SC MARKANANDYA A, 1998, EC GREENHOUSE GAS LI MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 METZ B, 2000, INTEGRATED ASSESS, V1, P111 MEYER A, 2000, SCHUMACHER BRIEFINGS MILLS E, 1991, ENERG POLICY, V19, P526 MORITA T, 2000, ENV EC POLICY STUD, V3, P65 MORITA T, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 MULLER B, 2001, REJECTING KYOTO STUD NAKICENOVIC N, 2000, IPCC SPECIAL REPORT PHILIBERT C, 2000, ENERG POLICY, V28, P947 PHILIBERT C, 2001, CLIMATE POLICY, V2, P211 PHYLIPSEN GJM, 1998, ENERG POLICY, V26, P929 REINER DM, 1997, 27 MIT RINGIUS L, 1998, ENERG POLICY, V26, P777 RINGIUS L, 2002, INT ENV AGREEMENTS P, V2, P1 ROSE A, 1998, ENVIRON RESOUR ECON, V5, P193 SIJM J, 2001, CLIM POLICY, V1, P481 TOTH F, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 VANVUUREN DF, 2001, POLICY OPTIONS CO2 E VANVUUREN DP, 2001, CLIM POLICY, V1, P189 WATSON RT, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 YOHE GW, 2001, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V49, P247 NR 46 TC 2 J9 CLIM POLICY BP 211 EP 230 PY 2002 PD SEP VL 2 IS 2-3 GA 626TB UT ISI:000179888400007 ER PT J AU Doyle, T Simpson, A TI Traversing more than speed bumps: Green politics under authoritarian regimes in Burma and Iran SO ENVIRONMENTAL POLITICS LA English DT Article C1 Univ Adelaide, Sch Hist & Polit, Adelaide, SA 5005, Australia. Univ Keele, Sch Polit Int Relat & Philosophy, Keele ST5 5BG, Staffs, England. RP Doyle, T, Univ Adelaide, Sch Hist & Polit, Adelaide, SA 5005, Australia. AB It is generally assumed that in the era of globalisation politics crosses borders at will. While the borders of some nation-states are mere speed blimps to the rapid movement of transnational capital and other commodities-including ideas-the borders of other nation-states remain less permeable. The success of transnational crossings, or the manifestations thereof, will obviously be determined by national difference (and this cannot be overstated), but also by the type of political regime which governs particular nationstates. This article seeks to redress an imbalance in the literature by seeking to understand how the politics of environmental concern have crossed into the hinterlands of two authoritarian regimes: Burma and Iran. 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CR *AR GAS MOV, 2004, AR GAS MOV *AR GAS RES TEAM, 2005, SHWE GAS B *AR STAT HUM RIGHT, 2006, HUM ATT HUM RIGHTS A *EARTHR INT, 2003, CAP CONFL LOGG MIN C *EARTHR INT, 2004, AN YAD SHWE NAT GAS *EARTHR INT, 2005, INT DAY ACT SHWE GAS *EMB ISL REP IR, 1998, WOMENS NONGOV ORG IS *GREEN FRONT IRAN, 2005, GREEN FRONT IRAN *GREEN PART IR, 2005, GREEN PART IRAN *HUM RIGHTS WATCH, 2005, THEY CAM DESTR OUR V *INT I SUST DEV, 2005, INT C ENV PEAC DIAL *IR DEP ENV, 2004, IRAN DEP ENV *KAR DEV RES GROUP, 2006, DAMM BURM GEN *KAR HUM RIGHTS GR, 1996, EFF GAS PIP PROJ *KAR RIV WATCH, 2004, DAMM GUNP *KAR WOM ORG, 2004, SHATT SIL K WOM SPEA *KAR WOM ORG, 2005, WELC KAR WOM ORG WEB *REP SANS FRONT, 2000, MAY 1990 MAY 2000 10 *SHAN HUM RIGHTS F, 2002, LIC RAP *SHWE GAS MOV, 2006, SUPPL COMM NAT GAS W *SHWE GAS PIP CAMP, 2005, MEM HIS EXC AMB IND APPLE B, 2003, NO SAFE BURMAS ARM R ARENDT H, 1967, ORIGINS TOTALITARIAN BOROUMAND L, 2005, J DEMOCR, V16, P52 BROOKS C, 2002, EEUGENE WEEKLY 0103 CATHERINE, 2005, COMMUNICATION 0110 CLEARY S, 1997, ROLE NGOS AUTHORITAR DIAMOND L, 1988, FREEDOM WORLD POLIT DIAMOND L, 2002, J DEMOCR, V13, P21 DOYLE T, 2001, ENV POLITICS DOYLE T, 2005, ENV MOVEMENTS MAJORI EPOSITO JL, 1990, IRANIAN REVOLUTION G ESFANDIARI G, 2004, PARS TIMES FINK C, 2001, LIVING SILENCE BURMA FULLBROOK D, 2006, IRRAWADDY 0201 GRAY DD, 2006, IRRAWADDY AAP 0220 GREER J, 1999, EARTH RIGHTS LINKING HERSH SM, 2006, NEW YORKER 0417 HTOO N, 2005, COMMUNICATION 0110 HUNTINGTON S, 1991, 3 WAVE DEMOCRATIZATI KABOLI K, 2006, COMMUNICATION MAY KABOLI K, 2006, GREEN PARTY IRA 0320 KSENTINI FZ, 1994, HUMAN RIGHTS ENV FIN LAY PP, 2003, COMMUNICATION 1215 LINTNER B, 1994, BURMA REVOLT OPIUM I LINZ JJ, 2000, TOTALITARIAN AUTHORI MARTINKUS J, 2006, DATELINE 0222 MCILROY A, 2005, GUARDIAN UNLIMI 0405 MILANI A, 2005, J DEMOCR, V16, P23 MYINT S, 2004, COMMUNICATION 1224 PAUL, 2005, COMMUNICATION 0111 PHILP J, 2002, URBAN STUD, V39, P1587 SAIKAL A, 2003, ISLAM W CONFLICT COO SAM K, 2006, IRRAWADDY 0418 SAZEGARA M, 2005, J DEMOCR, V16, P64 SIMPSON A, 2004, SOC ALTERNATIVES, V23, P29 SIMPSON A, 2006, DOWNFALL CAPITALISM SIMPSON A, 2007, CRUCIBLE SURVIVAL EN SMITH M, 1999, BURMA INSURGENCY POL THAWNGHMUNG AM, 2003, FOREIGN POLICY, V139, P39 THEIN M, 2004, COMMUNICATION 0119 WA KH, 2004, COMMUNICATION 0114 NR 62 TC 0 J9 ENVIRON POLIT BP 750 EP 767 PY 2006 PD NOV VL 15 IS 5 GA 109FW UT ISI:000242294300004 ER PT J AU Innes, JL Hickey, GM TI The importance of climate change when considering the role of forests in the alleviation of poverty SO INTERNATIONAL FORESTRY REVIEW LA English DT Article C1 Univ British Columbia, FRBC Chair Forest Management, Fac Forestry, Forest Sci Ctr, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z4, Canada. Univ Melbourne, Sch Forest & Ecosyst Sci, Fac Land & Food Resources, Creswick, Vic 3363, Australia. RP Innes, JL, Univ British Columbia, FRBC Chair Forest Management, Fac Forestry, Forest Sci Ctr, 2045 Main mall, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z4, Canada. AB Forests could play a major role in the alleviation of poverty in many different parts of the world., However, forests are dynamic, and their rate of change is accelerating as a result of anthropogenic activities. Climate change, for example, will alter the nature of many protection forests in mountainous areas, exposing the inhabitants to increased risk from natural hazards. It will also affect the viability of plantation forests established in drier areas to combat desertification. Many forests are showing increased productivity, although the causes remain unclear. Sea-level change will destabilize coastal forests, particularly mangroves, reducing their effectiveness in coastal protection. Air pollution has already destabilized many forests, and is likely to be an increasing problem in the forests surrounding urban areas in developing countries. Many impacts remain uncertain, and there remains a great need to integrate the biophysical knowledge that currently exists with socioeconomic information associated with the impact on forest-dependent communities. CR 2004, OPPORTUNITIES BARRIE *DFID, 1999, SUST LIV GUID SHEETS *MILL EC ASS, 2005, EC HUM WELL BEING SY *UNFCCC, 2002, REP C PART ITS 7 SES ADGER WN, 2000, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V90, P738 AHMED AU, 1999, VULNERABILITY ADAPTA, P93 ANDERSON J, 2006, INT FOREST REV, V8, P44 ANNECKE W, 2002, INT J GLOBAL ENV ISS, V2, P206 AUER MR, 2005, J FOREST, V103, P126 BALE JS, 2002, GLOBAL CHANGE BIOL, V8, P1 BALLARD R, 2005, AFR AFFAIRS, V104, P615 BELCHER BM, 2005, INT FOREST REV, V7, P82 BENNET C, 2002, WHICH WAY FORWARD FO, P60 BLAIKIE PM, 1994, RISK NATURAL HAZARDS, V1, P1 BOONPRAGOB K, 1996, WATER AIR SOIL POLL, V92, P107 BOSWORTH, 1995, HUMAN ECOLOGY CLIMAT, P245 BRADLEY MJ, 2003, WORKSH CLIM CHANG W BROCKERHOFF EG, 2006, CAN J FOREST RES, V36, P263 CHAMBERS R, 1992, 296 IDS CLARK DA, 2004, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V100, P5852 COLFER CJP, 2005, EQUITABLE FOREST DIV, P296 CRICK HQP, 1999, NATURE, V399, P423 DIXON RK, 2003, MITIGATION ADAPTATIO, V8, P93 ENGEL S, 2006, FOREST POLICY ECON, V8, P434 EPSTEIN PR, 2001, J URBAN HEALTH, V78, P367 ERIKSEN S, 2003, PROPOOR CLIMATE ADAP FEARNSIDE PM, 2004, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V14, P299 FISHER M, 2004, ENVIRON DEV ECON 2, V9, P135 FOLKE C, 2005, ANNU REV ENV RESOUR, V30, P441 GLASER M, 2004, NAT RESOUR FORUM, V28, P224 GODEN A, 2006, UNPUB FORESTRY REV GOLDAMMER JG, 1998, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V39, P273 GORDON JC, 1999, FORESTS FIGHT POVERT, P168 HANNA SS, 1996, RIGHTS NATURE ECOLOG HASKELL SP, 2004, RANGIFER, V24, P71 HOUGHTON JT, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 HULME M, 1998, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V39, P145 IFTEKHAR MS, 2006, J FOREST, V104, P148 ILOWEKA EM, 2004, ENVIRON MONIT ASSESS, V99, P245 INNES JL, 2005, FOREST CHRON, V81, P324 JARVINEN A, 1994, ECOGRAPHY, V17, P108 KAIMOWITZ D, 2003, FORESTS POVERTY REDU, P45 KARESH WB, 2005, EMERG INFECT DIS, V11, P1000 KATES RW, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P5 KAUSHAL KK, 2005, INT J SUST DEV WORLD, V12, P347 KING JN, 1998, CAN J FOREST RES, V28, P863 KLEIN RJT, 2002, INFORMAL EXPERT M DE KOTTOSAME J, 1997, AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON, V65, P245 LAL M, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, P543 LANDELLMILLS N, 2002, CAPTURING CARBON CON, P272 LAURANCE WF, 2004, PHILOS T ROY SOC B, V359, P345 LEACH G, 2004, IDS BULL-I DEV STUD, V35, P76 LEAKEY RRB, 2001, INT FOREST REV, V3, P1 LOOPE LL, 1998, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V39, P503 MAYERS J, 2001, RAISING STAKES IMPAC MAYERS J, 2006, FORESTS DIALOGUE PUB, V2 MITKIN D, 2004, EMPOWERING SQUATTER MUNASINGHE M, 1995, PROPERTY RIGHTS ENV MURALI KS, 2006, INT REV ENV STRATEGI, V6, P23 MUSTACA AE, 2002, INT J COMP PSYCHOL, V15, P1 NABANGOA GN, 2001, INT FORESTRY REV, V3, P34 NADASDY P, 2003, HUNTERS BUREAUCRAFTS OLSSON P, 2004, ENVIRON MANAGE, V34, P75 PANDIT BH, 2004, SOC NATUR RESOUR, V17, P1 PAYET R, 2004, AMBIO, V33, P24 PAZ S, 2006, INT J ENVIRON HEAL R, V16, P1 PELUSO N, 1992, RICH FORESTS POOR PE PFEIFFER J, 2004, HUM ORGAN, V63, P359 PRIYADESHINGKAR, 1998, INT J ENV POLLUTION, V9, P186 RAJORA OP, 2001, EUPHYTICA, V118, P197 RAVINDRANATH NH, 2006, CURR SCI INDIA, V90, P354 ROBLEDO C, 2004, MT RES DEV, V24, P14 SANCHEZ PA, 2000, AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON, V82, P371 SANZ JJ, 2003, ECOGRAPHY, V26, P46 SAUNDERS LS, 2002, CAPTURING CARBON CON, P218 SAYER J, 2004, SCI SUSTAINABLE DEV SIZER N, 1999, BIOL CONSERV, V91, P135 SOMARATNE S, 1996, WATER AIR SOIL POLL, V92, P129 STOLLE F, 1999, NATURE RESOUR, V35, P22 STONICH SC, 1997, SOC NATUR RESOUR, V10, P161 SUNDERLIN WD, 2005, WORLD DEV, V33, P1383 SUNDERLIN WD, 2006, FOREST POLICY ECON, V8, P386 TELLEZVALDES O, 2006, BIODIVERS CONSERV, V15, P1095 THIN N, 2004, FORESTS TREES LIVELI, V14, P229 TIMSINA NP, 2003, GEOGR J 3, V169, P236 TIPPER R, 2002, SELLING FOREST ENV S, P223 TUCKER C, 2004, WORKING FORESTS NEOT, P178 VEDELD P, 2004, COUNTING ENV FOREST WALSH K, 1998, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V39, P199 WINKEL W, 1997, J AVIAN BIOL, V28, P187 WORK TT, 2005, BIOL INVASIONS, V7, P323 ZAKIRHUSAIN, 2004, ENV DEV EC, V9, P563 NR 92 TC 0 J9 INT FOR REV BP 406 EP 416 PY 2006 PD DEC VL 8 IS 4 GA 125LX UT ISI:000243444500003 ER PT J AU Pandey, DN TI Global climate change and carbon management in multifunctional forests SO CURRENT SCIENCE LA English DT Review C1 Indian Inst Forest Management, Bhopal 462003, India. RP Pandey, DN, Indian Inst Forest Management, Bhopal 462003, India. AB Fossil-fuel burning and deforestation have emerged as principal anthropogenic sources of rising atmospheric CO2 and consequential global warming. Variability in temperature, precipitation, snow cover, sea level and extreme weather events provide collateral evidence of global climate change. I review recent advances on causes and consequences of global climate change and its impact on nature and society. I also examine options for climate change mitigation. Impact of climate change on ecology, economy and society the three pillars of sustainability - is increasing. Emission reduction, although most useful, is also politically sensitive for economic reasons. Proposals of the geoengineering for iron fertilization of oceans or manipulation of solar flux using stratospheric scatters are yet not feasible for scientific and environmental reasons. Forests as carbon sinks, therefore, are required to play a multifunctional role that includes, but is not limited to, biodiversity conservation and maintenance of ecosystem functions; yield of goods and services to the society; enhancing the carbon storage in trees, woody vegetation and soils; and providing social and economic well-being of people. This paper explores strategies in that direction and concludes that the management of multifunctional forests over landscape continuum, employing tools of conservation biology and restoration ecology, shall be the vital option for climate change mitigation in future. 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1998, FOREST SCI, V44, P272 YADAV RR, 1997, QUATERNARY RES, V48, P187 NR 128 TC 6 J9 CURR SCI BP 593 EP 602 PY 2002 PD SEP 10 VL 83 IS 5 GA 595CT UT ISI:000178089800022 ER PT J AU Sonmez, FK Komuscu, AU Erkan, A Turgu, E TI An analysis of spatial and temporal dimension of drought vulnerability in Turkey using the standardized precipitation index SO NATURAL HAZARDS LA English DT Article C1 Ankara Univ, Fac Agr, Dept Farm Struct & Irrigat, TR-06110 Ankara, Turkey. Turkish State Meteorol Serv, Res & Data Proc Dept, TR-06120 Ankara, Turkey. RP Sonmez, FK, Ankara Univ, Fac Agr, Dept Farm Struct & Irrigat, TR-06110 Ankara, Turkey. AB Drought has become a recurrent phenomenon in Turkey in the last few decades. Significant drought conditions were observed during years of late 1980s and the trend continued in the late 1990s. The country's agricultural sector and water resources have been under severe constraints from the recurrent droughts. In this study, spatial and temporal dimensions of meteorological droughts in Turkey have been investigated from vulnerability concept. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) method was used to detail geographical variations in the drought vulnerability based on frequency and severity of drought events at multiple time steps. Critical (threshold) rainfall values were derived for each station at multiple-time steps in varying drought categories to determine least amount of rainfall required to avoid from drought initiation. The study found that drought vulnerability portrays a very diverse but consistent picture with varying time steps. At regional scale, south-eastern and eastern Anatolia are characterized with moderate droughts at shorter time steps, while the occurrence of severe droughts at shorter time steps is observed at non-coastal parts of the country. A similar picture was observed with very severe droughts. The critical (threshold) values exhibited rising numbers during the growing season at 3-month step in the South-eastern Anatolia, which might have significant consequences considering presence of large irrigation projects underdevelopment in the region. In general, rainfall amounts required for non-drought conditions decrease from the coastal parts toward the interiors with increasing time steps. CR *AM MET SOC, 2003, B AM MET SOC, V85 *GOLD SOFTW, 1997, SURF MAPP SYST VER 2 ABRAMOWITZ M, 1965, HDB MATH FORMULAS GR CULLEN HM, 2000, INT J CLIMATOL, V20, P853 DOWNING TE, 2000, DROUGHT GLOBAL ASSES DRACUP JA, 1980, WATER RESOUR RES, V16, P297 EDWARDS DC, 1997, 972 COL STAT U GUTTMAN NB, 1998, J AM WATER RESOUR AS, V34, P113 GUTTMAN NB, 1999, J AM WATER RESOUR AS, V35, P311 HAYES MJ, 1999, B AM METEOROL SOC, V80, P429 HURRELL JW, 1995, SCIENCE, V269, P676 KEENAN SP, 1997, RURAL SOCIOL, V62, P69 KOMUSCU AU, 1998, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V40, P519 KOMUSCU AU, 2002, DROUGHT NETWORK NEWS, V13, P5 KOMUSCU AU, 2003, 39 WMO, P39 LLOYDHUGHES B, 2002, INT J CLIMATOL, V22, P1571 MCKEE TB, 1993, 8 C APPL CLIM 17 22, P179 NAMIAS J, 1985, UNESCO WORLD METEORO, P27 OLADIPO EO, 1985, J CLIMATOL, V5, P655 THOM HCS, 1958, MON WEA REV, V86, P117 WILHELMI OV, 2002, NAT HAZARDS, V25, P37 WILHITE DA, 1985, WATER INT, V10, P111 WILHITE DA, 1993, DROUGHT ASSESSMENT M, P3 WILHITE DA, 2000, DROUGHT GLOBAL ASSES, CH1 NR 24 TC 1 J9 NATURAL HAZARDS BP 243 EP 264 PY 2005 PD JUN VL 35 IS 2 GA 931HY UT ISI:000229477600004 ER PT J AU Meadows, ME TI Soil erosion in the Swartland, Western Cape Province, South Africa: implications of past and present policy and practice SO ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE & POLICY LA English DT Article C1 Univ Cape Town, Dept Environm & Geog Sci, ZA-7701 Rondebosch, South Africa. RP Meadows, ME, Univ Cape Town, Dept Environm & Geog Sci, ZA-7701 Rondebosch, South Africa. AB The Western Cape Province of South Africa has a long history of human occupation and utilisation; the impact of colonial settlement (late 17th century onwards) on agriculture has been especially prominent. The Mediterranean-type climate of the Western Cape results in landscapes which are potentially susceptible to land degradation, perhaps even desertification. The Swartland is a gently undulating inland plateau underlain largely by fine-grained and nutrient-rich shales of the pre-Cambrian Malmesbury group. Agriculture is the dominant land use to the extent of wholesale landscape transformation. The area has been subject to significant levels of land degradation in the past, manifesting itself as widespread gully erosion. During the 1940s, the region was described as on the verge of economic collapse due to the severity of soil erosion, but concerted soil conservation and education efforts under the political dispensation of the time appear to have averted that scenario. The region now faces the combined challenges of potentially rapid climate change under a considerably altered socio-economic and political order. Downscaled climate change scenarios facilitate a regional assessment of changes in the parameters affecting soil erosion susceptibility in the Swartland and leads to a consideration of the implications of such scenarios for the continuation of contemporary land use practices. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *IPCC, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 ACOCKS JPH, 1988, MEM BOT SURV S AFR, V57, P1 BAXTER AJ, 1994, HIST BIOL, V9, P61 BENNETT HH, 1945, SOIL EROSION LAND US CONACHER AJ, 1998, LAND DEGRADATION MED DELIUS P, 2000, J S AFR STUD, V26, P719 DODSON B, 2003, IN PRESS FALLING STO DODSON B, 2003, IN PRESS INT J ENV H HEWITSON BC, 1996, CLIMATE RES, V7, P85 HOFFMAN MT, 1997, VEGETATION SO AFRICA, P507 HOFFMAN MT, 1999, LAND DEGRADATION S A HOFFMAN MT, 2001, NATURE DIVIDED LAND HUNTLEY B, 1989, S AFRICAN ENV 21 CEN MCCANN JC, 1999, GREEN LAND BROWN LAN MEADOWS ME, IN PRESS GEOGRAPHICA MEADOWS ME, IN PRESS S AFRICAN J MOREL A, 1998, THESIS U CAPE TOWN PLATZKY L, 1985, SURPLUS PEOPLE FORCE PRESTONWHYTE RA, 1988, ATMOSPHERE WEATHER S SIMON D, 2000, GEOGRAPHY S AFRICA C, P89 TALBOT WJ, 1947, SWARTLAND SANDVELD TANKARD AJ, 1982, CRUSTAL EVOLUTION S THOMAS DSG, 1994, DESERTIFICATION EXPL VERSTER E, 1992, ENV MANAGEMENT S AFR, P181 WATSON HK, 1997, S AFRICAN GEOGRAPHIC, V79, P27 WEAVER A, 1989, S AFRICAN GEOGRAPHIC, V71, P32 NR 26 TC 1 J9 ENVIRON SCI POLICY BP 17 EP 28 PY 2003 VL 6 IS 1 GA 739NK UT ISI:000186353200003 ER PT J AU Manyena, SB TI The concept of resilience revisited SO DISASTERS LA English DT Article C1 Northumbria Univ, Disaster & Dev Ctr, Sch Appl Sci, Newcastle Upon Tyne NE1 8ST, Tyne & Wear, England. RP Manyena, SB, Northumbria Univ, Disaster & Dev Ctr, Sch Appl Sci, 6 North St, Newcastle Upon Tyne NE1 8ST, Tyne & Wear, England. AB The intimate connections between disaster recovery by and the resilience of affected communities have become common features of disaster risk reduction programmes since the adoption of The Hyogo Framework for Action 2005-2015. Increasing attention is now paid to the capacity of disaster-affected communities to 'bounce back' or to recover with little or no external assistance following a disaster. This highlights the need for a change in the disaster risk reduction work culture, with stronger emphasis being put on resilience rather than just need or vulnerability. However, varied conceptualisations of resilience pose new philosophical challenges. Yet achieving a consensus on the concept remains a test for disaster research and scholarship. This paper reviews the concept in terms of definitional issues, the role of vulnerability in resilience discourse and its meaning, and the differences between vulnerability and resilience. It concludes with some of the more immediately apparent implications of resilience thinking for the way we view and prepare for disasters. 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Govt Mali, Minist Dev Rural, Inst Econ Rurale, Bamako, Mali. RP Butt, TA, Texas A&M Univ, Dept Agr Econ, College Stn, TX 77843 USA. AB The Mali agricultural sector and the country's food security are potentially vulnerable to climate change. Policies may be able to mitigate some of the climate change vulnerability. This article investigates several policy changes that may reduce vulnerability, including climate-specific and other policies. The policy set includes migration of cropping patterns, development of high-temperature-resistant cultivars, reduction in soil productivity loss, cropland expansion, adoption of improved cultivars, and changes in trade patterns. When all policies are considered together.. results under climate change show an annual gain of $252 million in economic benefits as opposed to a $161 million loss without policy adjustment. Simultaneously, undernourishment is reduced to 17% of the Malian population as compared with 64% without policy adjustment. We also find tradeoffs in cases between economic benefits and undernourishment. Policies are also studied individually and collectively. Overall, the results indicate that policy can play an important role in reducing climate change vulnerability in Mali. CR *AO, 1995, WORLD AGR 2010 *FAOSTAT, 2005, STAT DAT *GOV MAL, 2003, POV RED STRAT PAP *WORLD BANK, 2005, WOLD DEV IND DAT ADAMS RM, 1998, EC CLIMATE CHANGE, P18 BUTT TA, 2004, DISCUSSIONS LOCAL EX BUTT TA, 2005, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V68, P355 BUTT TA, 2005, FOOD POLICY, V30, P434 EVENSON RE, 1999, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V96, P5921 GOMMES R, 1994, 9 FAO UN ENV NAT RES GRUHN P, 2000, INTEGRATED NUTR MANA KELLY V, 2003, FOOD POLICY, V28, P379 MCCARL BA, 1980, AM J AGR ECON, V62, P87 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 MENDELSOHN R, 1994, AM ECON REV, V84, P753 NASEEM A, 1999, 73 MICH STAT U INT D NUBUKPO K, 1999, USAID OTH DON I SPON OUEDRAOGO H, 1999, LAND TENURE POVERTY ROSENZWEIG C, 1998, CLIMATE CHANGE GLOBA ROWAN RC, 1995, PHYGROW MODEL DOCUME ROY RN, 2003, FAO FERTILIZER PLANT, V14 STUTH JW, 1999, NUTR HERBIVORES, P695 WILLIAMS JR, 1989, T ASAE, V32, P497 WINTERS P, 1998, ENVIRON RESOUR ECON, V12, P1 NR 24 TC 0 J9 CLIM POLICY BP 583 EP 598 PY 2006 VL 5 IS 6 GA 051TF UT ISI:000238183100003 ER PT J AU Magrin, GO Travasso, MI Diaz, RA Rodriguez, RO TI Vulnerability of the agricultural systems of Argentina to climate change SO CLIMATE RESEARCH LA English DT Article C1 Inst Nacl Tecnol Agropecuaria, Ctr Invest Recursos Nat, Inst Clima & Agua, RA-1712 Buenos Aires, Argentina. RP Magrin, GO, Inst Nacl Tecnol Agropecuaria, Ctr Invest Recursos Nat, Inst Clima & Agua, RA-1712 Buenos Aires, Argentina. AB Agricultural production is one of the pillars of the Argentinean economy. The contribution of this sector is expected to keep growing in the near future as a consequence of the current technological development trend. However, the projected changes in climate and in the atmospheric concentration of CO2 in the coming years is likely to affect the productivity of crops, thus causing an impact on the national economy. This paper addresses climate change impact on the production of the main crops of the Argentinean pampean region by means of crop growth and development simulation models for wheat, maize and soybean included in DSSAT v. 3.0 (Dension Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer, Univ. of Hawaii, Honolulu). The weather data used includes temperature, global solar radiation and precipitation values from 23 sites within the region (current climate conditions) and the corresponding GISS general circulation model projections for the year 2050 (future climate) with CO2 concentrations of 330 and 550 ppm respectively. According to the results obtained, a generalized increase in soybean yield and a decrease in maize yield would occur. Wheat yield is likely to increase in the southern and the western parts of the region and decrease towards the north. Wheat and soybean production in the pampean region would increase by 3.6 and 20.7% respectively, while maize production would be reduced by 16.5%. CR *IBSNAT, 1994, DEC SUPP SYST AGR TR *IPCC, 1990, CLIM CHANG IPCC SCI BAETHGEN WE, 1995, CLIMATE CHANGE AGR A, V59, P207 BASUALDO EM, 1995, REALIDAD EC ARGENTIN, V132, P126 BOULLON DR, 1996, 21 REUN ARG FIS VEG, P168 CURRY RB, 1995, ASA SPEC PUBL, V59, P163 GALLAGHER JN, 1978, J AGR SCI, V91, P47 GIFFORD RM, 1993, INT CROP SCI, V1, P325 HANSEN J, 1988, J GEOPHYS RES, V93, P9341 HESKETH JD, 1973, CROP SCI, V13, P250 HOFFMAN J, 1989, FUERZA AEREA ARGENTI, V15 MAGRIN GO, 1991, 6 C ARG MET BUEN AIR, P49 MAGRIN GO, 1994, MEMORIAS 2 REUN NAC, P29 MONTEITH JL, 1981, Q J ROY METEOR SOC, V107, P749 PARUELO JM, 1993, CLIM RES, V3, P161 RODRIGUEZ RO, 1993, REV INVEST AGROPECU, V24, P83 ROSENZWEIG C, 1995, CONSEQUENCES SUM, P23 THOMAS JF, 1978, AGRON J, V70, P893 NR 18 TC 8 J9 CLIMATE RES BP 31 EP 36 PY 1997 PD DEC 29 VL 9 IS 1-2 GA ZD200 UT ISI:000072661400006 ER PT J AU Pittock, AB TI What next for IPCC? SO ENVIRONMENT LA English DT Article CR *NAT RES COUNC, 2002, ABR CLIM CHANG IN SU ARNELL NW, 2002, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V53, P413 BARNETT J, 2001, MEANING ENV SECURITY BERK MM, 2001, CLIMATE POLICY, V1, P465 CHANGNON SA, 1999, NAT HAZARDS, V18, P287 CHANGNON SA, 2000, B AM METEOROL SOC, V81, P437 DELWORTH TL, 2000, J CLIMATE, V13, P721 DICKSON B, 2002, NATURE 0425, P832 GILLE ST, 2002, SCIENCE 0215, P1275 GLEICK PH, 1989, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V15, P309 GRITSEVSKYI A, 2000, ENERG POLICY, V28, P907 HERRON N, IN PRESS J ENV MANAG HOUGHTON JT, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 ISARIN RFB, 1999, EARTH-SCI REV, V48, P1 JONES RN, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P403 KIM K, 2001, GEOPHYSICAL RES LETT, V28, P293 LOCKWOOD JG, 2001, INT J CLIMATOLOGY, V21, P153 MATEAR RJ, 2000, GEOCHEMISTRY GEOPHYS, V1 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 MCGREGOR J, 1994, FOOD POLICY, V19, P120 METZ B, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 MULLER B, 2002, REJECTING KYOTO STUD MUNASINGHE M, 2000, GUIDANCE PAPERS CROS MYERS N, 1995, ENV EXODUS EMERGENT NAKICENOVIC N, 2000, EMISSIONS SCENARIOS PACHUAURI T, 2001, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V48, P273 PIELKE RA, 1998, WEATHER FORECAST 2, V13, P621 PITTOCK AB, 2002, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V53, P393 SCHNEIDER SH, 2001, NATURE, V411, P17 STOCKER TF, 1999, INT J EARTH SCI, V88, P365 STOCKER TF, 2000, QUATERNARY SCI REV, V19, P301 TOPPING J, 1997, CHEM ENG NEWS 0922, P22 WATSON RT, 1998, REGIONAL IMPACTS CLI, V1, P1 WATSON RT, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 WESTING AH, 1992, ENVIRON CONSERV, V19, P201 WIGLEY TML, 1996, NATURE, V379, P240 NR 36 TC 1 J9 ENVIRONMENT BP 20 EP 36 PY 2002 PD DEC VL 44 IS 10 GA 618UY UT ISI:000179436700004 ER PT J AU PenningRowsell, EC Winchester, P Gardiner, J TI New approaches to sustainable hazard management for Venice SO GEOGRAPHICAL JOURNAL LA English DT Article C1 Middlesex Univ, Flood Hazard Res Ctr, Enfield EN3 4SF, Middx, England. RP PenningRowsell, E, Middlesex Univ, Flood Hazard Res Ctr, Enfield, Enfield EN3 4SF, Middx, England. AB Venice is suffering from flooding, pollution and the neglect of its famous urban fabric. The situation will worsen with sea-level rise relative to the land, as the Lagoon continues to evolve from a low-energy coastal marsh to a high-energy marine system. The proposed solution - a system of mobile gates - appears to be flawed in that it does not tackle some of the fundamental causes of these problems, or cope adequately with sealevel rise. For sustainability, what is needed is a more systematic review of policy options and communications. The authors' initial assessment suggests that what is required is, first, a medium-to long-term integrated catchment and;coastal zone plan, implemented over 50 years or more, to tackle the pollution and the Lagoon's degraded morphology. Second, in the short to medium term (the next 50 years) small-scale local floodproofing works within Venice - designed to maintain the visual integrity of the city and be acceptable to its people - can alleviate much of the flooding, while the more long-term solution is implemented. That solution must involve the progressive reduction of the influence of the Adriatic on the Lagoon, to cushion against the flooding that it brings. To succeed, this approach will need new thinking, and new resources, skills and institutional arrangements. CR *COLL ING PROV VEN, 1996, GIORNALE INGEGNERI, V10 *COM VEN, 1994, PIAN PROGR INT INT I *DEP ENV, 1993, ENV APPR DEV PLANS *IBRD, 1993, WAT RES MAN *OECD, 1992, COAST ZON MAN SEL CA BANDARIN F, 1994, P I CIVIL ENG-CIV EN, V102, P163 BERNSTEIN AG, 1996, QUADERNI TRIMESTRALI, P89 BETTINETTI A, 1995, P 2 INT C MED COAST, P921 BURTON I, 1978, ENV HAZARD, V1, P1 CECCONI G, 1997, PIC 97, P1 CURRY N, 1996, CHANGING RURAL POLIC DOUGLAS BC, 1991, J GEOPHYS RES, V96, P6981 FRANCIA C, 1993, COASTAL ZONE MANAGEM, P111 FRANCO D, 1996, BUFFER ZONES THEIR P, P35 GARDINER J, 1994, J ENV PLANNING MANAG, V37, P53 GARDINER JL, 1991, RIVER PROJECTS CONSE GARDINER JL, 1992, PROJECT APPRAISAL, V7, P165 GARDINER JL, 1992, RIVER CONSERVATION M, P397 GARDINER JL, 1994, J INST WATER ENV MAN, V8, P308 GARDINER JL, 1995, HYDRA 2000, P307 GREEN CH, 1989, J INST WATER ENV MAN, V3, P27 GREEN CH, 1993, HUMAN ASPECTS FLOODI HANDMER JW, 1996, IND ENV CRISIS Q, V9, P482 LANG O, 1994, INT SEM WASS EFF FLU LEWIN J, 1990, J INST WATER ENV MAN, V4, P70 MAZZACURATI G, 1996, QUADERNI TRIMESTRALI, P7 MESSINA E, 1983, INT RES PROJECT VENI NAIRMAN RJ, 1992, WATERSHED MANAGEMENT NEWSON MD, 1992, LAND WATER DEV NICHOLLS RJ, 1995, GEOJOURNAL, V37, P369 NICHOLLS RJ, 1996, COAST MANAGE, V24, P301 ORIORDAN T, 1993, SUSTAINABLE ENV EC M, P37 PENNINGROSWELL EC, 1977, BENEFITS FLOOD ALLEV PENNINGROSWELL EC, 1996, ACCIDENT DESIGN CONT, P127 PENNINGROSWELL EC, 1997, GEOJOURNAL, V43, P247 PENNINGROWSELL EC, 1987, TIJDSCHR EC SOC GEOG, V78, P176 PENNINGROWSELL EC, 1992, EC COASTAL MANAGEMEN PENNINGROWSELL EC, 1992, HAZARD MANAGEMENT EM, P203 PENNINGROWSELL EC, 1996, FLOODPLAIN PROCESSES, P493 PENNINGROWSELL EC, 1996, GEOGR REV, V86, P72 RUNCA W, 1996, QUADERNI TRIMESTRALI, P55 SCOTTI A, 1993, QUADERNI TRIMESTRALI, V1, P9 SCOTTI A, 1994, QUADERNI TRIMESTRALI, V2, P17 SOIKA AG, 1976, B MUSEO CIVICO STO S, V27 TUNSTALL SM, 1994, 444 RD FDN WAT RES VELLINGA P, 1989, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V15, P175 WARRICK RA, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, P359 WIGLEY TML, 1992, NATURE, V357, P293 WINCHESTER P, 1992, POWER CHOICE VULNERA ZITELLI A, 1996, QUADERNI TRIMEST MAY, P71 NR 50 TC 6 J9 GEOGR J BP 1 EP 18 PY 1998 PD MAR VL 164 GA ZG451 UT ISI:000073003900001 ER PT J AU Kim, YO Seo, YW Lee, DR Yoo, C TI Potential effects of global warming on a water resources system in Korea SO WATER INTERNATIONAL LA English DT Article C1 Korea Engn Consultants Corp, Seoul, South Korea. Korea Univ, Seoul 136701, South Korea. AB This study reports on an examination of the potential effects of global warming on a water resources system in Korea. Assuming a doubling in CO2 concentration (denoted 2CO(2)), basin-scale scenarios for precipitation and other hydrometeorologic variables were generated from the existing general circulation model (GCM) results. The generated temperature and precipitation scenarios were input to the NWS-PC model to generate the corresponding streamflow scenarios over the Geum river basin. A reservoir simulation model for Daecheong Dam in the Geum river basin has been developed using the object-oriented simulation environment, STELLA. For each streamflow scenario, the performance of the reservoir was assessed in terms of reliability, resiliency, and vulnerability. Although the simulation results are heavily dependent on the choice of climate change scenarios, the following conclusions can be made: the future streamflow over Daecheong Dam tends to decrease during the dry period, which seriously increases competitive water use issues; and flood control issues predominate under the 2CO(2)-High case. CR *KAIST, 1995, CLIM CHANG IMP ASS D HASHIMOTO T, 1982, WATER RESOUR RES, V18, P14 KANG IS, 1993, S CLIM CHANG IMP HAN, P3 KLEMES V, 1990, P CAN WAT RES ASS 43 LETTENMAIER DP, 1999, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V43, P537 PALMER RN, 1993, P 20 ANN NAT C WAT R, P451 SIMONOVIC SP, 2003, J WATER RES PL-ASCE, V129, P361 NR 7 TC 0 J9 WATER INT BP 400 EP 405 PY 2005 PD SEP VL 30 IS 3 GA 002NW UT ISI:000234619200014 ER PT J AU Vorosmarty, CJ Green, P Salisbury, J Lammers, RB TI Global water resources: Vulnerability from climate change acid population growth SO SCIENCE LA English DT Article C1 Univ New Hampshire, Water Syst Anal Grp, Durham, NH 03824 USA. Univ New Hampshire, Complex Syst Res Ctr, Durham, NH 03824 USA. Univ New Hampshire, Ocean Proc Analyt Lab, Durham, NH 03824 USA. Univ New Hampshire, Inst Study Earth Oceans & Space, Durham, NH 03824 USA. Univ New Hampshire, Dept Earth Sci, Durham, NH 03824 USA. RP Vorosmarty, CJ, Univ New Hampshire, Water Syst Anal Grp, Durham, NH 03824 USA. AB The future adequacy of freshwater resources is difficult to assess, owing to a complex and rapidly changing geography of water supply and use. Numerical experiments combining climate model outputs, water budgets, and socioeconomic information along digitized river networks demonstrate that (i) a large proportion of the world's population is currently experiencing water stress and (ii) rising water demands greatly outweigh greenhouse warming in defining the state of global water systems to 2025. Consideration of direct human impacts on global water supply remains a poorly articulated but potentially important facet of the larger global change question. CR *UN, 1997, COMPR ASS FRESHW RES *WORLD RES I, 1996, WORLD RES GUID GLOB *WORLD RES I, 1998, WORLD RES GUID GLOB ALCAMO J, 2000, WORLD WATER SCENARIO, P204 ARNELL NW, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, P325 BONELL M, 1993, HYDROLOGY WATER MANA CONWAY D, 1996, AMBIO, V25, P336 DOLL P, 1999, A9901 U KASS ELVIDGE CD, 1997, INT J REMOTE SENS, V18, P1373 FALKENMARK M, 1991, WATER INT, V16, P229 FALKENMARK M, 1993, AMBIO, V22, P427 FEKETE BM, 1999, 22 WORLD MET ORG GLO GLEICK P, 1998, WORLDS WATER BIENNIA GLEICK PH, 2000, WORLD WATER SCENARIO, P27 HOMERDIXON TF, 1994, INT SECURITY, V19, P5 KACZMAREK Z, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, P469 LVOVICH MI, 1990, EARTH TRANSFORMED HU, P235 MELILLO JM, 1995, GLOBAL BIOGEOCHEM CY, V9, P407 MILLIMAN JD, 1995, CLIMATE CHANGE IMPAC, P57 POSTEL S, 1985, INTERCIENCIA, V10, P290 POSTEL SL, 1996, SCIENCE, V271, P785 RODDA JC, 1998, WATER LOOMING CRISIS SHIKLOMANOV I, 1996, ASSESSMENT WATER RES STRZEPEK KM, 2000, WORLD WATER SCENARIO, P120 TOBLER W, 1995, TR956 NAT CTR GEOGR VANDAM JC, 1999, IMPACTS CLIMATE CHAN VOROSMARTY CJ, 1998, J HYDROL, V207, P147 VOROSMARTY CJ, 2000, GLOBAL BIOGEOCHEM CY, V14, P599 NR 28 TC 71 J9 SCIENCE BP 284 EP 288 PY 2000 PD JUL 14 VL 289 IS 5477 GA 334DB UT ISI:000088169400037 ER PT J AU Adger, WN TI Social and ecological resilience: are they related? SO PROGRESS IN HUMAN GEOGRAPHY LA English DT Article C1 Univ E Anglia, Sch Environm Sci, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. Univ E Anglia, CSERGE, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. RP Adger, WN, Univ E Anglia, Sch Environm Sci, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. AB This article defines social resilience as the ability of groups or communities to cope with external stresses and disturbances as a result of social, political and environmental change. This definition highlights social resilience in relation to the concept of ecological resilience which is a characteristic of ecosystems to maintain themselves in the face of disturbance. There is a clear link between social and ecological resilience, particularly for social groups or communities that are dependent on ecological and environmental resources for their livelihoods. But it is not clear whether resilient ecosystems enable resilient communities in such situations. This article examines whether resilience is a useful characteristic for describing the social and economic situation of social groups and explores potential links between social resilience and ecological resilience. The origins of this interdisciplinary study in human ecology, ecological economics and rural sociology are reviewed, and a study of the impacts of ecological change on a resource-dependent community in contemporary coastal Vietnam in terms of the resilience of its institutions is outlined. 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James Cook Univ N Queensland, Sch Marine Biol & Aquaculture, Ctr Coral Reef Biodivers, Townsville, Qld 4811, Australia. Stockholm Univ, Dept Syst Ecol, SE-10691 Stockholm, Sweden. Stockholm Univ, Ctr Transdisciplinary Environm Res, SE-10691 Stockholm, Sweden. Univ Wisconsin, Ctr Limnol, Madison, WI 53706 USA. Stockholm Environm Inst, SE-10314 Stockholm, Sweden. RP Adger, WN, Univ E Anglia, Sch Environm Sci, Tyndall Ctr Climate Change Res, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. AB Social and ecological vulnerability to disasters and outcomes of any particular extreme event are influenced by buildup or erosion of resilience both before and after disasters occur. Resilient social-ecological. systems incorporate diverse mechanisms for living with, and learning from, change and unexpected shocks. Disaster management requires multilevel governance systems that can enhance the capacity to cope with uncertainty and surprise by mobilizing diverse sources of resilience. CR ADGER WN, IN PRESS GLOBAL ENV ADGER WN, 2003, NATURAL DISASTER DEV, P19 ALLEN MR, 2004, NATURE, V432, P551 ALLISON EH, 2004, FISH FISH, V5, P215 BELLWOOD DR, 2004, NATURE, V429, P827 BERKES F, 2003, NAVIGATING SOCIAL EC, V1, P1 BLAIKIE PM, 1994, RISK NATURAL HAZARDS, V1, P1 BROWN K, 1997, ENVIRON CONSERV, V24, P316 BROWN K, 2002, MAKING WAVES INTEGRA CARPENTER SR, 2001, ECOSYSTEMS, V4, P765 COLDING J, 2003, NAVIGATING SOCIAL EC, P163 COLWELL RR, 1996, SCIENCE, V274, P2025 COSTANZA R, 2000, BIOSCIENCE, V50, P149 DAGER WN, 2001, LIVING ENV CHANGE SO DAHDOUHGUEBAS F, 2005, CURR BIOL, V15, R443 DIAMOND J, 1999, GUNS GERMS STEEL DIETZ T, 2003, SCIENCE, V302, P1907 ELMQVIST T, 2003, FRONT ECOL ENVIRON, V1, P488 FOLKE C, IN PRESS ANN REV ENV FOLKE C, 2002, AMBIO, V31, P437 FOLKE C, 2004, ANNU REV ECOL EVOL S, V35, P557 GUNDERSON LH, 2002, PANARCHY UNDERSTANDI, V1, P1 HARVELL CD, 1999, SCIENCE, V285, P1505 HOLLING CS, 1973, ANNUAL REV ECOLOGY S, V4, P1 HOLTGIMENEZ E, 2002, AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON, V93, P87 HUGHES TP, 2003, SCIENCE, V301, P929 HUGHES TP, 2005, TRENDS ECOL EVOL, V20, P380 HUQ S, 1999, VULNERABILITY ADAPTA IVES AR, 1999, SCIENCE, V286, P542 JANSEN K, 2003, DEV CHANGE, V34, P45 LIU PLF, 2005, SCIENCE, V308, P1595 LUGO AE, 2000, AMBIO, V29, P106 MCCLEAN RF, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, P345 MILLER F, 2005, SUSTAINABLE DEV UPDA, V1, P2 MIRZA MMQ, 2003, CLIM POLICY, V3, P233 NICHOLLS RJ, 2004, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V14, P69 NYSTROM M, 2001, ECOSYSTEMS, V4, P406 OBRIEN KL, 2004, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V14, P303 OKEEFE P, 1976, NATURE, V260, P566 PIELKE RA, 2003, NATURAL HAZARDS REV, V4, P101 SIDLE RC, 2004, QUATERN INT, V118, P181 SMALL C, 2003, J COASTAL RES, V19, P584 TOMPKINS EL, 2004, ECOL SOC, V9, P10 TOMPKINS EL, 2005, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V15, P139 TRENBERTH K, 2005, SCIENCE, V308, P1753 TURNER BL, 2003, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V100, P8074 WALKER BH, 2004, ECOL SOC, V9, P5 NR 47 TC 21 J9 SCIENCE BP 1036 EP 1039 PY 2005 PD AUG 12 VL 309 IS 5737 GA 955MN UT ISI:000231230100034 ER PT J AU Luers, AL Lobell, DB Sklar, LS Addams, CL Matson, PA TI A method for quantifying vulnerability, applied to the agricultural system of the Yaqui Valley, Mexico SO GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS LA English DT Article C1 Ctr Environm Sci, Stanford, CA 94305 USA. Policy Inst Int Studies, Stanford, CA 94305 USA. Stanford Univ, Dept Geog & Environm Sci, Stanford, CA 94305 USA. Carnegie Inst, Dept Global Ecol, Stanford, CA 94305 USA. San Francisco State Univ, Dept Geosci, San Francisco, CA 94132 USA. RP Luers, AL, Ctr Environm Sci, Encina Hall Eeast,4th Floor, Stanford, CA 94305 USA. AB We propose measuring vulnerability of selected outcome variables of concern (e.g. agricultural yield) to identified stressors (e.g. climate change) as a function of the state of the variables of concern relative to a threshold of damage, the sensitivity of the variables to the stressors, and the magnitude and frequency of the stressors to which the system is exposed. In addition, we provide a framework for assessing the extent adaptive capacity can reduce vulnerable conditions. We illustrate the utility of this approach by evaluating the vulnerability of wheat yields to climate change and market fluctuations in the Yaqui Valley, Mexico. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *FOOD AGR ORG, 1997, FAOSTAT ROM *IHDP, 2001, SPEC ISS VULN, V2, P1 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 *USAID, USAID FAM EARL WARN ALWANG J, 2001, 0115 WORLD BANK BLAIKIE PM, 1994, RISK NATURAL HAZARDS, V1, P1 BOHLE HG, 1994, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V4, P37 BRIGUGLIO L, 1995, WORLD DEV, V23, P1615 CARPENTER SR, 2001, ECOSYSTEMS, V4, P765 CHAMBERS R, 1989, IDS B, V20, P1 CLARK WC, 2000, 200012 BCSIA HARV U CUTTER SL, 1996, PROG HUM GEOG, V20, P529 DOWNING TE, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE VULNE FOLKE C, 2002, ICSU SERIES SUSTAINA, V3 GLEWWE P, 1998, J DEV ECON, V56, P181 GRIMM V, 1997, OECOLOGIA, V109, P323 GUNDERSON LH, 2000, ANNU REV ECOL SYST, V31, P425 HARRISON JA, 2003, THESIS STANFORD U ST HEITZMANN K, 2002, 0218 WORLD BANK HOLLING CS, 1973, ANNUAL REV ECOLOGY S, V4, P1 KALY U, 2002, DEV B, V58, P33 KASPERSON JX, 2001, INT WORKSH VULN GLOB KASPERSON JX, 2003, HUMAN DIMENSIONS GLO KATES RW, 2001, SCIENCE, V292, P641 KELLY PM, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V47, P325 LOBELL DB, 2002, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V114, P31 LOBELL DB, 2003, AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON, V94, P205 LONERGAN S, 2000, AVISO, V6, P1 MALKIN E, 2002, NY TIMES 1119 MANSURI G, 2002, IFPRI WORLD BANK C R MATSON PA, 1998, SCIENCE, V280, P112 MITCHELL JK, 1989, GEOGR REV, V79, P391 MOSS R, 2000, MEASURING VULNERABIL MOSS RH, 2002, VULNERABILITY CLIMAT MURDOCH J, 1994, AM ECON REV, V84, P221 NAYLOR RL, 2001, 0101 CIMMYT INT MAIZ OSUNA PM, 2003, SECO SERA 2003 PANEK JA, 2000, ECOL APPL, V10, P506 PETERSON GD, 2002, CONSERV ECOL, V6, P1 PETSCHELHELD G, 1999, ENVIRON MODEL ASSESS, V4, P295 PRITCHETT L, 2000, QUANTIFYING VULNERAB RIBOT JC, 1996, CLIMATE VARIABILITY, V1, P1 RIBOT JC, 1995, GEOJOURNAL, V35, P119 SCHELLNHUBER HJ, 1997, GAIA, V6, P19 SCHIMMELPFENNIG D, 1999, GLOBAL ENV CHANGE AG STEPHEN L, 2001, DISASTERS, V25, P113 TURNER BL, 2003, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V100, P8074 TURNER BL, 2003, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V100, P8080 VALDEZ C, 1994, EVALUATION MANAGEMEN WATTS MJ, 1993, PROG HUM GEOG, V17, P43 NR 50 TC 0 J9 GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANGE BP 255 EP 267 PY 2003 PD DEC VL 13 IS 4 GA 751BT UT ISI:000187033500003 ER PT J AU Chan, NW TI Institutional arrangements for flood hazard management in Malaysia: An evaluation using the criteria approach SO DISASTERS LA English DT Article RP Chan, NW, UNIV SAINS MALAYSIA,SCH HUMANITIES,GEORGE TOWN 11800,MALAYSIA. AB Institutional aspects of flood hazards significantly affect their outcomes in Malaysia. Institutional arrangements to deal with floods include: legislative activity, organisational structures, attitudes and sub-culture, and policies and instruments. When assessed in terms of four specific criteria, institutional aspects of flood hazards are found to be largely inadequate. Disaster reduction programmes are over-dependent on a reactive approach based largely on technology and not even aimed at floods specifically. Structural flood reduction measures are the predominant management tool and, although the importance of non-structural measures is recognised, thus far they have been under-employed. Current laws and regulations with regard to flood management are also insufficient and both the financial and human resources of flood hazard organisations are generally found to be wanting. Finally, economic efficiency, equity and public accountability issues are not adequately addressed by institutional arrangements for flood hazards. CR *DID, UNPUB ANN FLOOD REP *DID, 1988, SEM TEB BANJ 14 17 N *DID, 1990, UNPUB EV TANK MOD PE *DID, 1992, BUK MAKL JAB PENG SA *FRIENDS PEN HILL, 1991, PEN HILL NEED SAV NA *GOLV MAL, 1996, 7 MAL PLAN 1996 2000 *GOV MAL, 1991, 6 MAL PLAN 1991 1995 *JAB PENG SAL, 1992, BUK MAKL *JICA, 1982, NAT WAT RES STUD MAL, V5 *JICA, 1990, UNPUB STUDY FLOOD MI *JICA, 1991, UNPUB STUD FLOOD MIT *MAJL KES NEG, 1992, BUK PER TET JENT BAN *MUN COUNC PEN ISL, 1997, BUK BEND LOC PLAN 19 ARNSTEIN SR, 1969, J AM I PLANNERS, V35, P216 BINSHAABAN HAJ, 1992, PERS PENG PENG KAN J BLAIKIE PM, 1994, RISK NATURAL HAZARDS, V1, P1 CHAN NW, IN PRESS CURRENT ISS CHAN NW, IN PRESS ILMU ALAM CHAN NW, 1995, THESIS MIDDLESEX U CHAN NW, 1996, GEOGR J 3, V162, P313 CHAN NW, 1996, WAT MOB PROGR ALL RE CHAN NW, 1997, DISASTER PREVENTION, V6, P73 CHAN NW, 1997, WAT MOB PROGR M WAT DAVIS I, 1985, S MAN PART CAL PUBL DAVIS I, 1986, INT C REC WAR DAM AR FERNG MC, 1988, SEM TEB BANJ 14 17 N FOX I, 1962, NATURAL RESOURCES J, V2 FOX I, 1976, NATURAL RESOURCES J, V743 HANDMER JW, 1988, FLOOD PREP ARR WORKS HIEW KL, 1992, 2 US AS C ENG MIT NA HORLICKJONES T, 1993, NATURAL DISASTERS PR LEIGH CH, 1978, PAC VIEWPOINT, V19, P47 LIM TK, 1988, SEM TEB BANJ MITCHELL B, 1990, INTEGRATED WATER MAN PARKER DJ, 1978, DISASTERS, V21, P47 PARKER DJ, 1978, HAZARD MANAGEMENT EM, V2, P47 PARKER DJ, 1988, NAT RESOUR J, V28, P751 PARKER DJ, 1992, HAZARD MANAGEMENT EM PENNINGROWSELL EC, 1986, FLOODS DRAINAGE SINGH G, 1991, IS GREENING VARLEY A, 1994, DISASTERS DEV ENV YAZIA MI, 1985, URBANIZATION ECODEVE NR 42 TC 0 J9 DISASTERS BP 206 EP 222 PY 1997 PD SEP VL 21 IS 3 GA XV819 UT ISI:A1997XV81900002 ER PT J AU Coulson, D Joyce, L TI Indexing variability: A case study with climate change impacts on ecosystems SO ECOLOGICAL INDICATORS LA English DT Article C1 USDA, Forest Serv, Rocky Mt Res Stn, Ft Collins, CO 80526 USA. SI Int, Ft Collins, CO 80526 USA. RP Joyce, L, USDA, Forest Serv, Rocky Mt Res Stn, 240 W Prospect St, Ft Collins, CO 80526 USA. AB We developed a methodology to index statistical changes in the variance of ecological measures over time. While ecological indicators are used to assess ecosystem health, vulnerability, risk and damage to ecosystems, their primary focus has been on changes to the mean of the ecological state or process. Little work has been done on incorporating variability into ecological indices. The methodology developed here is based on the Modified Levene's test of variance and a moving block where an initial time period (block) of ecosystem behavior is compared to the moving block. This allows for the detection of not only shifts in variance but also the magnitude of the shift on a continuous basis. Our results compared well with the benchmarked results from the Centered Cumulative Sum of Squares Algorithm (CUSUM) for detection of variance changes in fixed time series. The output from this methodology is a continuous stream of parameters (significant variance shift, magnitude of the shift, and the direction of the variance shift) suitable for indexing variance or integrating into an index measuring ecosystem change. Results suggest that the block interval widths should be at least 50 and that a smoothing factor of five be used to avoid false positives. We used modeled vegetation carbon output to analyze the utility of the methodology, illustrating that different model assumptions and CO2 regimes affect the variability of the ecological response. The degree of risk resource managers may want to explore can be altered by choices in the block length, the length of the string used to smooth variance shifts, the assumption that the initial period has constant variance and the alpha levels used to determine statistical significance. Published by Elsevier Ltd. CR *NAT ASS SYNTH TEA, 2000, CLIM CHANG IMP US PO *NAT ASS SYNTH TEA, 2001, CLIM CHANG IMP US PO *NAT RES COUNC, 1994, RANG HLTH NEW METH C *SAS I INC, 2000, SAS SYST REL 8 1 BROWN MB, 1974, J AM STAT ASSOC, V69, P364 CHEN J, 1997, JASA, V92, P139 DALE VH, 2000, SCI TOTAL ENVIRON, V262, P201 EASTERLING WE, 1995, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V31, P623 HAMMOND A, 1995, ENV INDICATORS SYSTE HSU DA, 1977, APPLIED STATISTICS, V26, P279 HUNSAKER CT, 1990, 600390060 EPA OFF RE INCLAN C, 1993, J BUS ECON STAT, V11, P289 INCLAN C, 1994, J AM STAT ASSOC, V89, P913 KARR JR, 1981, FISHERIES, V6, P21 KARR JR, 1987, ENVIRON MANAGE, V11, P249 LANDRES PB, 1999, ECOL APPL, V9, P1179 LAW BE, 2002, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V113, P97 LEE S, 2001, SCAND J STAT, V29, P625 LEVENE H, 1960, CONTRIBUTIONS PROBAB, V1, P278 LOOKINGBILL TR, 2003, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V114, P141 MCCULLOCH RE, 1993, J AM STAT ASSOC, V88, P968 MELILLO JM, 1995, GLOBAL BIOGEOCHEM CY, V9, P407 NORTON BG, 1998, ECOL APPL, V8, P350 PARMESAN C, 2000, B AM METEOROL SOC, V81, P443 PARMESAN C, 2003, NATURE, V421, P37 PELLANT M, 2000, 17346 USDI BLM NAT S PREM PT, 1981, APPL STAT, V30, P301 ROOT TL, 2003, NATURE, V421, P57 SILLETT TS, 2000, SCIENCE, V288, P2040 WALTHER GR, 2002, NATURE, V416, P389 WANG JH, 2000, J BUS ECON STAT, V18, P374 WICHERN DW, 1976, APPLIED STATISTICS, V25, P248 NR 32 TC 0 J9 ECOL INDIC BP 749 EP 769 PY 2006 PD NOV VL 6 IS 4 GA 093QC UT ISI:000241182400009 ER PT J AU Timura, CT TI "Environmental conflicts" and the social life of environmental security discourse SO ANTHROPOLOGICAL QUARTERLY LA English DT Article C1 Univ Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109 USA. RP Timura, CT, Univ Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109 USA. AB The concept "environmental conflict" has enjoyed increasing popularity within environmental discourses, both as a focal point of interdisciplinary research efforts and as a buzzword within general discussions concerning international security both in the U.S. and Europe. Though the concept has become a part the "master narrative" of environmentalism, its uncritical application to conflict settings has the potential to misdirect the attention of conflict mediators and policy makers. In this article the author traces the contours of environmental security discourse, while critiquing environmental conflict models. Highlighting a comparative study of three resource-related outbreaks of collective violence, the author finds that in none of the cases compared-neither the Zapatista Rebellion of Chiapas, Mexico, the massacre at Eldorado dos Carajas, in Para, Brazil, nor the "Guinea Fowl" War of Northern Region, Ghana-can simple resource scarcity be implicated as a cause of violence. In contrast to current anthropological understandings of resource-related violence, environmental conflict models are unable to take into account the social and cultural nature of resource conflicts, including the roles that social histories, symbolically-mediated perception, and local political economies play in the outbreak of violence. Given both its inadequacies and policy importance, anthropologists could make useful interventions as participants in the developing environmental security discourse, [discourse, environmentalism, violence, environmental conflict, political ecology]. CR BAECHLER G, 1999, ECOLOGY POLITICS VIO DOUGLAS M, 1982, RISK CULTURE ESSAY S DURHAM W, 1979, SCARCITY SURVIVAL CE DURHAM WH, 1976, Q REV BIOL, V51, P385 DYSONHUDSON R, 1978, AM ANTHROPOL, V80, P21 ELLEN R, 1996, REDEFINING NATURE EC EMBER M, 1982, AM ANTHROPOL, V84, P645 FERGUSON R, 1984, WARFARE CULTURE ENV FERGUSON R, 1988, 1 H FRANK GUGG FDN FERGUSON R, 1995, YANOMAMI WARFARE POL FRIED M, 1968, WAR ANTHROPOLOGY ARM FUJIMURA JH, 1992, SCI PRACTICE CULTURE GIVENS R, 1976, DICUSSIONS WAR HUMAN HOMERDIXON TF, 1994, INT SECURITY, V19, P5 KAPLAN RD, 1994, ATLANTIC MONTHLY FEB, V273, P44 KELLY RC, 2000, WARLESS SOC ORIGINS KNAUFT BM, 1987, CURR ANTHROPOL, V28, P457 LANG C, 1995, 12 ENCOP SWISS AC PE LYOTARD JF, 1993, POSTMODERN READER MALINOWSKI B, 1941, AM J SOCIOL, V46, P521 MILTON K, 1993, ENVIRONMENTALISM VIE NARROLL R, 1975, AM ETHNOL, V3, P97 PETERS P, 1992, AFRICA, V62, P413 RAPPAPORT RA, 1967, PIGS ANCESTORS RITUA, V1, P1 RAPPAPORT RA, 1979, ECOLOGY MEANING RITU RICHARDS P, 1996, FIGHTING RAIN FOREST RICHARDSON NR, 1996, J NEUROSCI METH, V66, P1 ROSCOE P, 1996, J ROY ANTHROPOL INST, V2, P591 SARTY L, 1995, ENV SECURITY QUALITY SHIPTON P, 1994, ANNU REV ANTHROPOL, V23, P347 SIMONS A, 1999, ANNU REV ANTHROPOL, V28, P73 TAMBIAH SJ, 1996, LEVELING CROWDS ETHN TIMURA CT, 1997, THESIS U COLL LONDON ULLMAN RH, 1983, INT SECURITY, V8, P129 VAYDA AP, 1961, AM ANTHROPOL, V63, P346 NR 35 TC 0 J9 ANTHROPOL QUART BP 104 EP 113 PY 2001 PD JUL VL 74 IS 3 GA 454UR UT ISI:000169990600002 ER PT J AU Dochartaigh, BEO Ball, DF MacDonald, AM Lilly, A Fitzsimons, V Del Rio, M Auton, CA TI Mapping groundwater vulnerability in Scotland: a new approach for the Water Framework Directive SO SCOTTISH JOURNAL OF GEOLOGY LA English DT Article C1 British Geol Survey, Edinburgh EH9 3LA, Midlothian, Scotland. Macaulay Land Use Res Inst, Aberdeen AB15 8QH, Scotland. Scottish Environm Protect Agcy, Edinburgh EH14 4AP, Midlothian, Scotland. RP Dochartaigh, BEO, British Geol Survey, W Mains Rd, Edinburgh EH9 3LA, Midlothian, Scotland. AB A new methodology for groundwater vulnerability assessment has been devised for Scotland to meet the requirements of the Water Framework Directive. Using the methodology, a new GIS-based map of groundwater vulnerability has been produced, at a working scale of 1: 100000. The map is being used by the Scottish Environment Protection Agency (SEPA) to help characterize and assess risk to groundwater bodies. The methodology assesses the vulnerability of groundwater in the uppermost aquifer to the vertical downward movement of a non-specific contaminant from the ground surface. It considers the intrinsic properties of the pathway between the ground surface and the water table. The key difference from previous vulnerability maps in Scotland and the rest of the UK is that the new method assesses vulnerability in all aquifers regardless of resource potential. This reflects the diverse environmental objectives for groundwater bodies under the Water Framework Directive. This approach provides the flexibility to combine the groundwater vulnerability map with maps of pressures, groundwater resources or other groundwater-related receptors, as required. CR *DELG EPA GSI, GROUNDW PROT SCHEM BALL DF, 2005, SCOT J GEOL 1, V41, P61 BOORMAN DB, 1995, 126 I HYDR FOSTER SSD, 1998, GEOLOGICAL SOC LONDO, V130, P7 LANGAN SJ, 1996, SOILS SUSTAINABILITY, P69 LILLY A, 1998, NUTR CYCL AGROECOSYS, V50, P299 MACDONALD AM, 2005, SCOT J GEOL 1, V41, P3 PALMER RC, 1998, SPECIAL PUBLICATIONS, V130, P191 ROBINS NS, 2004, C PAP USTR POL 16 19 NR 9 TC 2 J9 SCOT J GEOL BP 21 EP 30 PY 2005 VL 41 GA 927FG UT ISI:000229177200004 ER PT J AU Lorenzoni, I Jordan, A Hulme, M Turner, RK ORiordan, T TI A co-evolutionary approach to climate change impact assessment: Part I. Integrating socio-economic and climate change scenarios SO GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS LA English DT Article C1 Univ E Anglia, Ctr Social & Econ Res Global Environm, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. Univ Coll London, London WC1E 6BT, England. Univ E Anglia, Sch Environm Sci, Climat Res Unit, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. RP Lorenzoni, I, Univ E Anglia, Ctr Social & Econ Res Global Environm, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. AB Climate change policies currently pay disproportionately greater attention to the mitigation of climate change through emission reductions strategies than to adaptation measures. Realising that the world is already committed to some global warming, policy makers are beginning to turn their attention to the challenge of preparing society to adapt to the unfolding impacts at the local level. This two-part article presents an integrated, or 'co-evolutionary', approach to using scenarios in adaptation and vulnerability assessment. Part I explains how climate and social scenarios can be integrated to better understand the inter-relationships between a changing climate and the dynamic evolution of social, economic and political systems. The integrated scenarios are then calibrated so that they can be applied 'bottom up' to local stakeholders in vulnerable sectors of the economy. Part I concludes that a co-evolutionary approach (1) produces a more sophisticated and dynamic account of the potential feedbacks between natural and human systems; (2) suggests that sustainability indicators are both a potentially valuable input to and an output of integrated scenario formulation and application. Part II describes how a broadly representative sample of public, private and voluntary organisations in the East Anglian region of the UK responded to the scenarios, and identifies future research priorities. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *CLIM CHANG IMP RE, 1996, REV POT EFF CLIM CHA *DEP ENV TRAD REG, 1999, BETT QUAL LIF STRAT *INT PAN CLIM CHAN, 1996, CLIM CHANG 1996 *OFF SCI TECHN OST, 1999, DTI PUB *WORLD BUS COUNC S, 1997, GLOB SCEN 2000 2050 ADGER WN, 1999, ECOL ECON, V31, P365 BERKHOUT F, 1999, SOCIOECONOMIC SCENAR ELKINGTON J, 1996, LONG RANGE PLANN, V29, P762 GALLOPIN G, 1998, ENVIRONMENT, V40, P26 HAMMOND A, 1998, WHICH WORLD SCENARIO HULME M, 1998, 1 UKCIP CLIM RES UN KASSLER P, 1995, LONG RANGE PLANN, V28, P38 LORENZONI I, IN PRESS GLOBAL ENV MILES I, 1981, METHODS DEV PLANNING, P31 NIJKAMP P, 1997, INT J ENVIRON POLLUT, V7, P305 NORGAARD RB, 1984, LAND ECON, V60, P160 NORGAARD RB, 1994, DEV BETRAYED END PRO PALUTIKOF JP, 1997, EC IMPACTS HOT SUMME PARRY ML, UNPUB ASSESSMENT POT PARRY ML, 1998, CLIMATE IMPACT ADAPT PARRY ML, 1998, NATURE, V395, P741 PARSON EA, 1995, ENERG POLICY, V23, P463 PATTERSON WC, 1999, TRANSFORMING ELECT C RAYNER S, 1998, HUMAN CHOICE CLIMATE SMITHERS J, 1997, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V7, P129 TURNER RK, 1998, GEOGR J 3, V164, P269 NR 26 TC 9 J9 GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANGE BP 57 EP 68 PY 2000 PD APR VL 10 IS 1 GA 344EB UT ISI:000088743700005 ER PT J AU Schleyer, MH Celliers, L TI Modelling reef zonation in the Greater St Lucia Wetland Park, South Africa SO ESTUARINE COASTAL AND SHELF SCIENCE LA English DT Article C1 Ocean Res Inst, ZA-4056 Durban, South Africa. RP Schleyer, MH, Ocean Res Inst, POB 10712,Marine Parade, ZA-4056 Durban, South Africa. AB East Africa has a rich coral fauna that extends to Maputaland in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. At this latitude, considered high and marginal for coral distribution and development, they form a veneer on limited, late Pleistocene reefs rather than forming the accretive, aragonite structures known as coral reefs. It is thus more appropriate to refer to them in this region as coral communities, the environment being rendered marginal for their development by reduced temperatures, light and aragonite saturation state. Subsequent to their discovery, the reefs were afforded protection within two Marine Protected Areas (the St Lucia and Maputaland Marine Reserves). They are found primarily within three reef complexes, with only the central complex being readily accessible to the public for ecotourism at present. With the creation of the Greater St Lucia Wetland Park, a World Heritage Site, and the expectation of an accompanying increase in ecotourism, the status quo seems set to change. The reefs are thus the current focus of a modelling initiative to provide decision support in their management. This paper examines the unique nature of the South African communities, their vulnerability and importance in the regional and global context, and, using representative data from the model, how an anticipated increase in their use could affect their sustainability. The case for scientifically based zonation for their use is presented. (c) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR BENAYAHU Y, 2002, ISRAEL J ZOOL, V48, P273 CELLIERS L, UNPUB LANDSCAPE STRU CELLIERS L, 2001, CORAL REEFS, V20, P244 CELLIERS L, 2002, MARINE POLLUTION B, V44, P180 CHATER SA, 1993, LAMMERGEYER, V42, P1 DAVIS D, 1995, OCEAN COAST MANAGE, V26, P19 DEVANTIER LM, 1998, ECOL APPL, V8, P480 ENGLISH S, 1994, SURVEY MANUAL TROPIC, P1 GOREAU TF, 1969, MICRONESICA, V5, P323 HAWKINS JP, 1992, BIOL CONSERV, V62, P171 HAWKINS JP, 1997, P 8 INT COR REEF S P, P1923 KLEYPAS JA, 1999, AM ZOOL, V39, P146 MEDIO D, 1997, BIOL CONSERV, V79, P91 RAMSAY PJ, 1996, B GEOLOGICAL SURVEY, V117, P1 RIEGL B, 1995, B MAR SCI, V56, P676 RIEGL B, 1996, PAC SCI, V50, P404 ROBERTSON WD, 1996, UNPUB OCEANOGRAPHIC, V130, P1 ROUPHAEL T, 1995, EFFECTS QUALIFIED RE, V4, P1 ROUPHAEL T, 1997, BIOL CONSERV, V82, P329 SCHLEYER MH, 2000, B MAR SCI, V67, P1025 SCHLEYER MH, 2000, CORAL REEFS INDIAN O, P83 SCHLEYER MH, 2000, UNPUB MAJOR REEF COM, V192, P1 SCHLEYER MH, 2003, MAR FRESHWATER RES, V54, P967 SCHLEYER MH, 2003, ZOOLOGISCHE VERHANDE, V345, P387 SCHUMANN EH, 1988, LECTURE NOTES COASTA, V26, P101 VERON JEN, 1995, CORALS SPACE TIME BI, P1 NR 26 TC 0 J9 ESTUAR COAST SHELF SCI BP 373 EP 384 PY 2005 PD MAY VL 63 IS 3 GA 932DM UT ISI:000229534400003 ER PT J AU Mason, JB Bailes, A Mason, KE Yambi, O Jonsson, U Hudspeth, C Hailey, P Kendle, A Brunet, D Martel, P TI AIDS, drought, and child malnutrition in southern Africa SO PUBLIC HEALTH NUTRITION LA English DT Article C1 Tulane Univ, Sch Publ Hlth & Trop Med, Dept Int Hlth & Dev, New Orleans, LA 70118 USA. Louisiana State Univ, Sch Publ Hlth, New Orleans, LA USA. UN Childrens Fund, Eastern & So Africa Reg Off, Nairobi, Kenya. UNICEF, Reg Interagcy Coordinat Support Off, Johannesburg, South Africa. RP Mason, JB, Tulane Univ, Sch Publ Hlth & Trop Med, Dept Int Hlth & Dev, 1440 Canal St,Suite 2200, New Orleans, LA 70118 USA. AB Objective: To investigate trends in child malnutrition in six countries in southern Africa, in relation to the HIV epidemic and drought in crop years 2001/2 and 2002/3. Design: Epidemiological analysis of sub-national and national surveys with related data. Setting: Data from Lesotho, Malawi, Mozambique, Swaziland, Zambia and Zimbabwe, compiled and analysed under UNICEF auspices. Subjects: Secondary data: children 0-5 years for weight-for-age; HIV prevalence data from various sources especially antenatal clinic surveillance. Results: Child nutritional status as measured by prevalence of underweight deteriorated from 2001 onwards in all countries except Lesotho, with very substantial increases in some provinces/districts (e.g. from 5 to 20% in Maputo (Mozambique, 1997-2002), 17 to 32% in Copperbelt (Zambia, 1999-2001/2) and 11 to 26% in Midlands province (Zimbabwe, 1999-2002)). Greater deterioration in underweight occurred in better-off areas. Areas with higher HIV/AIDS prevalences had (so far) lower malnutrition rates (and infant mortality rates), presumably because more modern areas - with greater reliance on trade and wage employment - have more HIV/AIDS. Areas with higher HIV/AIDS showed more deterioration in child nutrition. A significant area-level interaction was found of HIV/AIDS with the drought period, associated with particularly rapid deterioration in nutritional status. Conclusions: First, the most vulnerable may be households in more modern areas, nearer towns, to whom resources need to be directed. Second, the causes of this vulnerability need to be investigated. Third, HIV/AIDS amplifies the effect of drought on nutrition, so rapid and effective response will be crucial if drought strikes again. Fourth, expanded nutritional surveillance is now needed to monitor and respond to deteriorating trends. Finally, with or without drought, new means are needed of bringing help, comfort and assistance to the child population. CR UNPUB NGO DISTRICT S *CENTR STAT OFF GO, 2000, MULT IND CLUST SURV *CENTR STAT OFF ZA, 1997, ZAMB DEM HLTH SURV 1 *CENTR STAT OFF ZA, 2003, ZAMB DEM HLTH SURV 2 *CENTR STAT OFF ZI, 1995, ZIMB DEM HLTH SURV 1 *CENTR STAT OFF ZI, 2000, ZIMB DEM HLTH SURV 1 *FEWS NET, 2002, MAL MONTHL FOOD SEC *FEWS NET, 2003, MAL MONTHL FOOD SEC *FEWS NET, 2003, MOZ MONTHL FOOD SEC *FEWS NET, 2003, ZAMB MONTHL FOOD SEC *GOV LES BUR STAT, 2002, KINGD LES 2000 END D *GOV LOS FOOD NUTR, 2002, NAT NUTR EPI CLUST S *GOV MOZ UNICEF, 2002, MULT ASS 2002 2 MULT *GOV ZIMB, 2002, NAT NUTR SURV 2002 N *INT STAND COMM JO, 2003, SO AFR HUM CRIS HEAD *JOIN UN PROGR HIV, 2002, EP FACT SHEET HIV AI *JOINT UN PROGR HI, 2002, EP FACT SHEETS HIV A *MIN EC PLANN DEV, 1996, MAL SOC IND SURV 199 *NAT AIDS CONTR PR, 2001, EST NAT HIV PREV MAL *NAT STAT OFF MAL, 2001, MAL DEM HLTH SURV 20 *SADC FANR VULN AS, 2002, LES EM FOOD SEC ASS *SADC FANR VULN AS, 2002, MOZ EM FOOD SEC ASS *SADC FANR VULN AS, 2002, REG EM FOOD SEC ASS *SADC FANR VULN AS, 2002, SWAZ EM FOOD SEC ASS *SADC FANR VULN AS, 2002, ZAMB EM FOOD SEC ASS *SADC FANR VULN AS, 2003, LES EM FOOD SEC ASS *SADC FANR VULN AS, 2003, MAL EM FOOD SEC ASS *SADC FANR VULN AS, 2003, REG EM FOOD SEC ASS *SADC FANR VULN AS, 2003, ZAMB EM FOOD SEC ASS *SADC FANR VULN AS, 2003, ZIMB EM FOOD SEC ASS *SADC FANR, 2002, REG EM FOOD SEC ASS *SADC FANR, 2003, REG EM FOOD SEC ASS *SO AFR DEV COMM F, 2003, IMP HIV AIDS FOOD SE *UN ACC SCN, 1989, UPD WORLD NUTR SIT R, P21 *UN ACC SCN, 2000, 4 REP WORLD NUTR SIT *UN ACC SCN, 2000, 4 REP WORLD NUTR SIT, P11 *UN ACC SCN, 2004, 5 REP WORLD NUTR SIT *UN CHILDR FUND DI, 2000, MON PROGR GOALS WORL *UNICEF ESARO, 2004, DROUGHT AIDS CHILD M *UNICEF, 1990, EICEF199016 UNICEF *UNICEF, 1999, ZAMB 1999 MULT IND C *UNICEF, 2002, LUMB SWAZ REG SURV 2 *UNICEF, 2003, NUTR SO AFR HUM CRIS *WHO JOINT UN PROG, 2003, REC ANT CLIN SURV PO *WHO, 2000, NEW DAT PREV MOTH TO ASAMOAHODEI E, 2004, LANCET, V364, P35 BAKAKI P, 2001, J ACQ IMMUN DEF SYND, V28, P35 DEVEREUX S, 2002, STATE DISASTER CAUSE DEWAAL A, 2003, LANCET, V362, P1234 GASPAR M, 1998, INQUERITO DEMOGRAFIC HADDAD L, 2001, J INT DEV, V13, P487 HENDERSON RA, 1996, PEDIATR AIDS HIV INF, V7, P91 LAMBRECHTS K, 2003, WHY IS SO AFRICA HUN MASON JB, 2001, FOOD NUTR B S, V22, P5 MASON JB, 2003, DROUGHT AIDS CHILD M MASON JB, 2004, DROUGHT HIV AIDS C 2 MORRIS JT, 2002, REPORT 1 MISSION LES PIWOZ EG, 2000, HIV AIDS NUTR REV LI NR 58 TC 2 J9 PUBLIC HEALTH NUTR BP 551 EP 563 PY 2005 PD SEP VL 8 IS 6 GA 975NJ UT ISI:000232668900003 ER PT J AU Pfister, F Bader, HP Scheidegger, R Baccini, P TI Dynamic modelling of resource management for farming systems SO AGRICULTURAL SYSTEMS LA English DT Article C1 EAWAG, Dept Resource & Waste Management, CH-8600 Dubendorf, Switzerland. ETH, Dept Resource & Waste Management, CH-8093 Zurich, Switzerland. RP Bader, HP, EAWAG, Dept Resource & Waste Management, POB 611, CH-8600 Dubendorf, Switzerland. AB With the rapid development of computer technology, numerous simulation models have been developed for agricultural systems and farms. Nevertheless, most of them are rather appropriate for developed countries as they have considerable data requirements and often aim at optimizing farm resources, excluding the farmer's household from the system. Yet, the latter is crucial for the understanding of semi-subsistence systems such as those found in developing countries. We present a dynamic model of an agricultural system in the Central Highlands of Nicaragua. It aims at giving a deeper insight into the functioning of the system and the constraints the latter is subject to. Such an approach helps to explain why farmers make certain choices. Although for the study area few data are available, a robust model with a one-day resolution could be designed. For simulation two groups of scenarios were chosen: (a) Minimum farm sizes for the production of a certain food supply (e.g. basic staples) were assessed and the impact of increased fertilizer use was estimated. (b) Monoculture farms were simulated with the main crops of the region. The production of calories, protein and added value were chosen as indicators. We determined the labour requirements for both groups of scenarios. Simulation results show that the latter is a limiting factor. This is true even for farming systems aiming at covering minimum needs (food, elemental health care and schooling) only. We can show that farmers' strategies (e.g. crop mix, fertilizer application) are crucial for the system. Last but not least, we produce some evidence for the advantage of the current crop mix in the study region. (c) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. CR *FAO, 1995, FRANJ GRAN SAN RAM E, V1 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 *SETEC, 2001, ESTR REF CREC EC RED BACCINI P, 1996, REGIONALER STOFFHAUS BADER HP, 2003, CLEAN TECHNOL E 0529 BINDER C, 2001, ECOL ECON, V38, P191 CAILLAVET F, 1994, DEV AGR EC, V10 CASTELANORTEGA OA, 2003, AGR SYST, V75, P1 CASTELANORTEGA OA, 2003, AGR SYST, V75, P23 FISCHER JC, 1970, TECHNICAL INFORMATIO HUG F, 2003, CLEAN TECHNOL E 0725 JONES CA, 1986, CERES MAIZE SIMULATI JONES JW, 1997, APPL SYSTEMS APPROAC, V1 KEATING BA, 2001, AGR SYST, V70, P555 LEE DJ, 1995, AGR SYST, V49, P101 MAINGI JM, 2001, EUR J AGRON, V14, P1 MATTHEWS RB, 1994, FIELD CROPS RES, V36, P69 MCCOWN RL, 2002, AGR SYSTEM MODELS FI MCKINION JM, 1989, AGR SYST, V31, P55 MULLER D, 2004, IN PRESS J IND ECOL OVERMAN AR, 2002, MATH MODELS CROP GRO PFISTER F, 2003, THESIS SWISS FEDERAL PFISTER F, 2004, P WORKSH SIM UMW GEO, P11 REAL M, 1998, THESIS SWISS FEDERAL RIVAS S, 2000, AGROOKOLOGISCHES REG SHEPHERD KD, 1998, AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON, V71, P131 SINCLAIR TR, 1996, AGRON J, V88, P698 WILLIAMS JR, 1995, COMPUTER MODELS WATE, P909 ZELTNER C, 1999, REG ENV CHANGE, V1, P31 NR 29 TC 0 J9 AGR SYST BP 1 EP 28 PY 2005 PD OCT VL 86 IS 1 GA 974BW UT ISI:000232567300001 ER PT J AU AFORNAS, AH SALIH, M TI RESEARCH-AND-DEVELOPMENT ISSUES FOR AFRICAN DRYLANDS SO AMBIO LA English DT Article RP AFORNAS, AH, SCANDINAVIAN INST AFRICAN STUDIES,POB 1703,S-75147 UPPSALA,SWEDEN. AB The African drylands have proven staggeringly vulnerable during the last two decades.This article summarizes major current research on environment/development issues in the drylands, with respect, not only to environmental vulnerability, but also to other major obstacles towards sustainable development. It highlights three interrelated dimensions of security; environmental security, food security, and international security. It is illuminated that food production may be undermined by regional armed conflicts which block efforts to improve food security as well as jeopardize sustainability. Once this obstacle is removed, the major issue is; how to offset food production and environmental management. To secure livelihood at the local level, demands the effectuation of levels of empowerment appropriate and capable of transcending the conventional notions of popular participation. Of greatest significance is the comprehension of decision-making processes to encompass the local community, national, regional and even global perspectives. It is suggested here that efforts towards sustainable environment/development are better based on interdisciplinary research and cross-sectoral profile linking policy and adaptive research. 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CR CARSON R, SILENT SPRING NR 1 TC 1 J9 GA REV BP 223 EP 232 PY 1991 PD SUM VL 45 IS 2 GA GD432 UT ISI:A1991GD43200001 ER PT J AU Dale, VH Brown, S Haeuber, RA Hobbs, NT Huntly, N Naiman, RJ Riebsame, WE Turner, MG Valone, TJ TI Ecological principles and guidelines for managing the use of land SO ECOLOGICAL APPLICATIONS LA English DT Review C1 Oak Ridge Natl Lab, Div Environm Sci, Oak Ridge, TN 37831 USA. Univ Illinois, Dept Nat Resources & Environm Sci, Champaign, IL 61820 USA. Ecol Soc Amer, Sustainable Biosphere Initiat, Washington, DC 20006 USA. Colorado State Univ, Colorado Div Wildlife, Ft Collins, CO 80523 USA. Colorado State Univ, Nat Resource Ecol Lab, Ft Collins, CO 80523 USA. Idaho State Univ, Dept Biol Sci, Pocatello, ID 83209 USA. Univ Washington, Coll Ocean & Fishery Sci, Seattle, WA 98195 USA. Univ Colorado, Dept Geog, Boulder, CO 80309 USA. Univ Wisconsin, Dept Zool, Madison, WI 53706 USA. Calif State Univ Northridge, Dept Zool, Northridge, CA 91330 USA. RP Dale, VH, Oak Ridge Natl Lab, Div Environm Sci, POB 2008, Oak Ridge, TN 37831 USA. AB The many ways that people have used and managed land throughout history has emerged as a primary cause of land-cover change around the world. Thus, land use and land management increasingly represent a fundamental source of change in the global environment. Despite their global importance, however, many decisions about the management and use of land are made with scant attention to ecological impacts. Thus, ecologists' knowledge of the functioning of Earth's ecosystems is needed to broaden the scientific basis of decisions on land use and management. In response to this need, the Ecological Society of America established a committee to examine the ways that land-use decisions are made and the ways that ecologists could help inform those decisions. This paper reports the scientific findings of that committee. Five principles of ecological science have particular implications for land use and can assure that fundamental processes of Earth's ecosystems are sustained. These ecological principles deal with time, species, place, disturbance, and the landscape. The recognition that ecological processes occur within a temporal setting and change over time is fundamental to analyzing the effects of land use. In addition, individual species and networks of interacting species have strong and far-reaching effects on ecological processes. Furthermore, each sire or region has a unique set of organisms and abiotic conditions influencing and constraining ecological processes. Disturbances are important and ubiquitous ecological events whose effects may strongly influence population, community, and ecosystem dynamics. Finally, the size, shape, and spatial relationships of habitat patches on the landscape affect the structure and function of ecosystems. The responses of the land to changes in use and management by people depend on expressions of these fundamental principles in nature. These principles dictate several guidelines for land use. The guidelines give practical rules of thumb for incorporating ecological principles into land-use decision making. These guidelines suggest that land managers should: (1) examine impacts of local decisions in a regional context, (2) plan for long-term change and unexpected events, (3) preserve rare landscape elements and associated species, (4) avoid land uses that deplete natural resources, (5) retain large contiguous or connected areas that contain critical habitats, (6) minimize the introduction and spread of nonnative species, (7) avoid or compensate for the effects of development on ecological processes, and (8) implement land-use and management practices that are compatible with the natural potential of the area. Decision makers and citizens are encouraged to consider these guidelines and to include ecological perspectives in choices on how land is used and managed. The guidelines suggest actions required to develop the science needed by land managers. 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conservation strategies SO GLOBAL ECOLOGY AND BIOGEOGRAPHY LA English DT Article C1 Conservat Int, Ctr Appl Biodivers Sci, Washington, DC 20036 USA. Natl Bot Inst, Climate Change Res Grp, ZA-7735 Cape Town, South Africa. RP Hannah, L, Conservat Int, Ctr Appl Biodivers Sci, 1919 M St, Washington, DC 20036 USA. AB Aim Conservation strategies currently include little consideration of climate change. Insights about the biotic impacts of climate change from biogeography and palaeoecology, therefore, have the potential to provide significant improvements in the effectiveness of conservation planning. We suggest a collaboration involving biogeography, ecology and applied conservation. The resulting Climate Change-integrated Conservation Strategies (CCS) apply available tools to respond to the conservation challenges posed by climate change. Location The focus of this analysis is global, with special reference to high biodiversity areas vulnerable to climate change, particularly tropical montane settings. Methods Current tools from climatology, biogeography and ecology applicable to conservation planning in response to climate change are reviewed. Conservation challenges posed by climate change are summarized. CCS elements are elaborated that use available tools to respond to these challenges. Results Five elements of CCS are described: regional modelling; expanding protected areas; management of the matrix; regional coordination; and transfer of resources. Regional modelling uses regional climate models, biotic response models and sensitivity analysis to identify climate change impacts on biodiversity at a regional scale appropriate for conservation planning. Expansion of protected areas management and systems within the planning region are based on modelling results. Management of the matrix between protected areas provides continuity for processes and species range shifts outside of parks. Regional coordination of park and off-park efforts allows harmonization of conservation goals across provincial and national boundaries. Finally, implementation of these CCS elements in the most biodiverse regions of the world will require technical and financial transfer of resources on a global scale. Main conclusions Collaboration across disciplines is necessary to plan conservation responses to climate change adequately. Biogeography and ecology provide insights into the effects of climate change on biodiversity that have not yet been fully integrated into conservation biology and applied conservation management. CCS provide a framework in which biogeographers, ecologists and conservation managers can collaborate to address this need. These planning exercises take place on a regional level, driven by regional climate models as well as general circulation models (GCMs), to ensure that regional climate drivers such as land use change and mesoscale topography are adequately represented. Sensitivity analysis can help address the substantial uncertainty inherent in projecting future climates and biodiversity response. 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AB Rapidly-industrializing, developing countries face increasing environmental disaster potential. Rising disaster losses are an indicator of non-sustainable development. Analysis of flood hazard in peninsular Malaysia exemplifies these problems. Malaysia has a rapidly-growing economy and evidence suggests that the flood hazard is worsening largely because of rapid urbanization and development. This is revealed by analysing trends in five 'flood hazard factors': variables which explain flood disaster potential. mood risk, exposure and damage potential are all increasing. High levels of poverty in flood plains suggest that peoples' vulnerability to floods is not being reduced. A large proportion of interviewed flood-prone households have low incomes, especially in eastern peninsula locations, and reported flood damages are high. Indigenous household flood adjustments, including 'stilt houses', limit flood vulnerability especially in the rural east. Unfortunately, modernization threatens traditional life-styles and erodes indigenous hazard-adaptations. State response is heavily engineering-oriented and is failing to address development-induced flood hazard potential. Policies are required which marry hazard reduction to poverty reduction and sustainable development. 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Tsing Hua Univ, Inst Nucl Energy, Beijing 100084, Peoples R China. Jilin Inst Architecture & Engn, Dept Transportat Engn, Changchun 130021, Jilin, Peoples R China. RP Pan, XL, Chinese Acad Sci, NE Inst Geog & Agr Ecol, Changchun 130021, Jilin, Peoples R China. AB The semi-arid agro-pastoral interweaving belt (SAPIB) is an important ecological zone in northern China and an important food base. However, sustainable agricultural development has been restricted by both natural and socioeconomic factors. It is inherently vulnerable because of its unfavourable climate and geological and hydrogeomorphological conditions. Agricultural production has been impaired by frequent natural disasters' salinization and desertification. Moreover, irrational agricultural policies and practices, poverty and other socioeconomic factors have brought about degradation in the SAPIB. The authors argue that the basis for a sustainable strategy is to transform it by increasing exergy input, changing the cultural outlook and harmonizing interactions between the component subsystems. Finally, a series of proposals based on notions for a sustainable strategy is put forward. CR CHEN KC, 1999, WIREL NETW, V5, P1 DENBIGH KG, 1951, THERMODYNAMICS STEAD DENG HP, 2000, ACTA ECOLOGICA SINIC, V20, P958 DENG W, 1996, REGION STUDY DEV, V15, P91 LIU YH, 2001, VULNERABLE ECOENVIRO SONG YQ, 2000, J DESERT RES S, V20, P15 XIAO CL, 2001, J CHANGCHUN U SCI TE, V31, P354 ZHANG JT, 2001, PROGR GEOGRAPHY, V20, P234 ZHANG XS, 1994, ACTA PHYTOECOL SIN, V18, P1 NR 9 TC 0 J9 OUTLOOK AGR BP 165 EP 172 PY 2003 PD SEP VL 32 IS 3 GA 737KK UT ISI:000186229400005 ER PT J AU Westhoek, HJ van den Berg, M Bakkes, JA TI Scenario development to explore the future of Europe's rural areas SO AGRICULTURE ECOSYSTEMS & ENVIRONMENT LA English DT Article C1 Netherlands Environm Assessment Agcy, MNP, NL-3720 BA Bilthoven, Netherlands. S African Sugarcane Res Inst, Mt Edgecombe, South Africa. OECD, Environm Directorate, Paris, France. RP Westhoek, HJ, Netherlands Environm Assessment Agcy, MNP, POB 1, NL-3720 BA Bilthoven, Netherlands. AB Changes in rural areas, such as depopulation and land abandonment, but also intensification and loss of biodiversity, usually proceed very slowly yet are often irreversible. A scenario study (called EURURALIS) was carried out by Wageningen University and Research Centre in combination with the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (MNP) to stimulate the strategic discussion among both national policy makers and policy makers at the European Union level on the future of Europe's rural areas and the role of policy instruments. After a review of previous scenario studies, the choice was made to elaborate strategic scenarios. built on a 2 x 2 matrix, where the axes represent the most critical uncertainties. The four scenarios were structured along two axes: (1) ranging from increasing globalisation to a world of regional economic and Cultural blocks and (2) ranging from a future of lean governments to a future with ambitious government regulation. The storylines were inspired by earlier work such as the emission scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (SRES), the GEO-3 scenarios and scenarios of the Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis (CPB). The current scenario study includes the 25 EU member states and had a time horizon up to 2030. The scenarios were quantified with a chain of models, ranging from global models to a spatially explicit model, which simulated land use on a 1 km x 1 km grid for the whole EU. The scenarios and their outcomes are presented by means of a CD. This paper describes the steps taken. proceeding from the general aim of the study on to the scenario set-up and then to the actual storylines and quantification of the scenarios. The outcomes of the scenarios are presented in three other articles in this issue. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 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Univ Hawaii Manoa, Dept Geog, Honolulu, HI 96822 USA. RP Loope, LL, Halemkala Natl Pk, US Geol Survey, Biol Resources Div, POB 369, Maui, HI 96768 USA. AB Island tropical montane cloud forests may be among the most sensitive of the world's ecosystems to global climate change. Measurements in and above a montane cloud forest on East Maul, Hawaii, document steep microclimatic gradients. Relatively small climate-driven shifts in patterns of atmospheric circulation are likely to trigger major local changes in rainfall, cloud cover, and humidity. Increased interannual variability in precipitation and hurricane incidence would provide additional stresses on island biota that are highly vulnerable to disturbance-related invasion of nonnative species. Because of the exceptional sensitivity of these microclimates and forests to change, they may provide valuable 'listening posts' for detecting the onset of human-induced global climate change. 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Surveillance Data Inc, St Louis Pk, MN USA. Bethesda Clin, St Paul, MN USA. Macalester Coll, Dept Biol, St Paul, MN 55105 USA. RP Ziska, LH, USDA ARS, Alternate Crop & Syst Lab, 10300 Baltimore Ave, Beltsville, MD 20705 USA. AB Background: Although controlled laboratory experiments have been conducted to demonstrate the sensitivity of allergenic pollen production to future climatic change tie, increased CO2 and temperature), no in situ data are available. Objective: The purpose of this investigation was to assess, under realistic conditions, the impact of climatic change on pollen production of common ragweed, a ubiquitous weed occurring in disturbed sites and the principal source of pollen associated with seasonal allergenic rhinitis. Methods: We used an existing temperature/CO2 gradient between urban and rural areas to examine the quantitative and qualitative aspects of ragweed growth and pollen production. Results: For 2000 and 200 1, average daily (24-hour) values of CO2 concentration and air temperature within an urban environment were 30% to 31% and 1.8degrees to 2.0degreesC (3.4degrees to 3.6degreesF) higher than those at a rural site. This result is consistent with most global change scenarios. Ragweed grew faster, flowered earlier, and produced significantly greater above-ground biomass and ragweed pollen at urban locations than at rural locations. Conclusions: Here we show that 2 aspects of future global environmental change, air temperature and atmospheric CO2, are already significantly higher in urban relative to rural areas. In general, we show that regional urbanization-induced temperature/CO2 increases similar to those associated with projected global climatic change might already have public health consequences; we suggest that urbanization, per se, might provide a low-cost alternative to current experimental methods evaluating plant responses to climate change. 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RP Morrissey, J, Univ Cape Town, Disaster Mitigat Sustainable Livelihoods Programm, DiMP, Dept Environm & Geog Sci, ZA-7700 Rondebosch, South Africa. AB With the increased concentration of populations in urban areas and the consequent occupation of marginal land, largely by the poor, the need for effective means of understanding and managing urban risk is immense. This paper explores the existence and variability of fire risk in the informal settlement of "Imizamo Yethu", on informal settlement situated in Cope Town, South Africa. The case study mainly analyses the factors influencing the conditions of risk. It highlights the need for a shift away from the hegemonic dialogue around so-called natural disasters and goes further to challenge the view of risk as on interaction between external, natural hazards and infernally generated vulnerability. The paper explores how different factors affecting fire risk operate at different scales and the resulting importance of recognising and understanding intro-community and even intro-household variability of risk. In so doing, it becomes evident that for risk reduction strategies to be effective, focus cannot simply be placed on structural interventions, but must encompass elements of social development which ore sensitive to current livelihood strategies. CR *MANDISA, 2005, MANDISA PRIV SEARCH BLAIKIE PM, 1994, RISK NATURAL HAZARDS, V1, P1 DUTOIT B, 1975, MIGRATION URBANIZATI ENARSON E, 2003, WORKING WOMEN RISK P GREEN C, 1991, THESIS U CAPE TOWN S HOLLOWAY A, 1999, RISK SUSTAINABLE DEV PARNELL S, 2002, URBAN VULNERABILITY NR 7 TC 0 J9 OPEN HOUSE INT BP 98 EP 105 PY 2006 PD MAR VL 31 IS 1 GA 103LC UT ISI:000241885700013 ER PT J AU TAYLOR, AJ TI DIRECTIONS FOR SOCIAL-RESEARCH IN DISASTER PREVENTION, MITIGATION AND RELIEF SO DISASTERS LA English DT Article C1 UNIV TORONTO,INST ENVIRONM STUDIES,TORONTO M5S 1A1,ONTARIO,CANADA. RP TAYLOR, AJ, INTERTECT,POB 10502,DALLAS,TX 75207. CR BURTON I, 1978, ENV HAZARD, V1, P1 DAVIS I, 1977, STUDIES PROVISION EM GERSONY R, 1977, ANAL ALTERNATIVE REC GREEN S, 1977, INT DISASTER RELIEF HALL B, 1975, CONVERGENCE TORONTO, V8, P28 MILETI D, 1975, 021 U COL I BEH SCI WHITE GF, 1974, NATURAL HAZARDS LOCA WHITE GF, 1975, ASSESSMENT RES NATUR, V1, P1 NR 8 TC 1 J9 DISASTERS BP 275 EP 281 PY 1979 VL 3 IS 3 GA HS011 UT ISI:A1979HS01100009 ER PT J AU KOLAWOLE, A TI RBRDAS AND VULNERABILITY TO HUNGER IN NIGERIA - THE CASE OF THE SOUTH-CHAD IRRIGATION PROJECT SO FOOD POLICY LA English DT Article RP KOLAWOLE, A, AHMADU BELLO UNIV,CTR SOCIAL & ECON RES,ZARIA,NIGERIA. 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SO HYDROGEOLOGY JOURNAL LA English DT Article C1 Cranfield Univ, Inst Water & Environm, Bedford MK45 4DT, England. RP Holman, IP, Cranfield Univ, Inst Water & Environm, Bedford MK45 4DT, England. AB An integrated approach to assessing the regional impacts of climate and socio-economic change on groundwater recharge is described from East Anglia, UK. Many factors affect future groundwater recharge including changed precipitation and temperature regimes, coastal flooding, urbanization, woodland establishment, and changes in cropping and rotations. Important sources of uncertainty and shortcomings in recharge estimation are discussed in the light of the results. The uncertainty in, and importance of, socio-economic scenarios in exploring the consequences of unknown future changes are highlighted. Changes to soil properties are occurring over a range of time scales, such that the soils of the future may not have the same infiltration properties as existing soils. The potential implications involved in assuming unchanging soil properties are described. To focus on the direct impacts of climate change is to neglect the potentially important role of policy, societal values and economic processes in shaping the landscape above aquifers. If the likely consequences of future changes of groundwater recharge, resulting from both climate and socio-economic change, are to be assessed, hydrogeologists must increasingly work with researchers from other disciplines, such as socio-economists, agricultural modellers and soil scientists. 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RP Peterson, S, Kiel Inst World Econ, D-24100 Kiel, Germany. AB The analysis of climate change is confronted with large uncertainties that need to be taken into account to arrive at meaningful policy recommendations. The main contribution of economics to this interdisciplinary task is to provide formal frameworks and techniques for analyzing climate policy in the context of uncertainty. This paper will give an overview of existing approaches and findings to provide a broad picture of what economics can contribute to the debate. 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RP Barker, T, Univ Cambridge, Dept Appl Econ, Sidgwick Ave, Cambridge CB3 9DE, England. AB The diagrammatic representation of climate change, adaptation and mitigation is important in conceptualizing the problem, identifying important feedbacks, and communicating between disciplines. The Synthesis Report of the IPCC's Third Assessment Report, 2001, uses a "cause and effect" approach developed in the integrated assessment literature. This viewpoint reviews this approach and suggests an alternative, based on stocks and flows. The alternative gives a much richer representation of the problem so that it includes the enhanced greenhouse effect, ancillary benefits of mitigation, the distinction between climate-change and other stresses on natural systems, and a more refined distinction between adaptation and mitigation. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *EEA EUR ENV AG, 1998, ENV ENV PRESS IND EU *EEA EUR ENV AG, 2000, ENV ISS SER EEA EUR, V17 *IPCC, 2001, CLIM CHANG 2001 *OECD, 1993, OECD ENV MON, V83 NAKICENOVIC N, 2000, IPCC INT PAN CLIM CH RAPPORT DJ, 1979, COMPREHENSIVE FRAMEW, P11 WATSON R, 2001, SYNTHESIS REPORT CLI NR 7 TC 0 J9 GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANGE BP 1 EP 6 PY 2003 PD APR VL 13 IS 1 GA 679ZD UT ISI:000182951100001 ER PT J AU Etter, A McAlpine, C Wilson, K Phinn, S Possingham, H TI Regional patterns of agricultural land use and deforestation in Colombia SO AGRICULTURE ECOSYSTEMS & ENVIRONMENT LA English DT Article C1 Univ Queensland, Ctr Ecol, Brisbane, Qld 4072, Australia. Univ Queensland, Sch Geog Planning & Architecture, Ctr Remote Sensing & Spatial Informat Sci, Brisbane, Qld 4072, Australia. Univ Javeriana, Fac Estud Ambientales & Rurales, Bogota, Colombia. RP Etter, A, Univ Queensland, Sch Geog Planning & Architecture, Chamberlain Bldg 35-506, St Lucia, Qld 4072, Australia. AB An expanding human population and associated demands for goods and services continues to exert an increasing pressure on ecological systems. Although the rate of expansion of agricultural lands has slowed since 1960, rapid deforestation still occurs in many tropical countries, including Colombia. However, the location and extent of deforestation and associated ecological impacts within tropical countries is often not well known. The primary aim of this study was to obtain an understanding of the spatial patterns of forest conversion for agricultural land uses in Colombia. We modeled native forest conversion in Colombia at regional and national-levels using logistic regression and classification trees. We investigated the impact of ignoring the regional variability of model parameters, and identified biophysical and socioeconomic factors that best explain the current spatial pattern and inter-regional variation in forest cover. We validated our predictions for the Amazon region using MODIS satellite imagery. The regional-level classification tree that accounted for regional heterogeneity had the greatest discrimination ability. Factors related to accessibility (distance to roads and towns) were related to the presence of forest cover, although this relationship varied regionally. In order to identify areas with a high risk of deforestation, we used predictions from the best model, refined by areas with rural population growth rates of > 2%. We ranked forest ecosystem types in terms of levels of threat of conversion. Our results provide useful inputs to planning for biodiversity conservation in Colombia, by identifying areas and ecosystem types that are vulnerable to deforestation. Several of the predicted deforestation hotspots coincide with areas that are outstanding in terms of biodiversity value. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 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RP Isik, M, Univ Idaho, Dept Agr Econ & Rural Sociol, 28B Ag Sci Bldg, Moscow, ID 83844 USA. AB This paper develops an econometric model of stochastic production functions to quantify the impacts of climatic variables on the mean, variance, and covariance of crop yields. The estimates of the production function parameters and their elasticities are utilized to analyse the impacts of the projected climate change on agriculture. The results show that the climate change will have modest effects on the mean crop yields, but will significantly reduce the variance and covariance for most of the crops considered. The results have implications for allocations of agricultural land among crops and for crop production mix. CR *NCDC, NCDC WEBP ADAMS RM, 1998, CLIMATE RES, V11, P19 ADAMS RM, 1999, AGR GLOBAL CLIMATE C ANDERSON JR, 1987, VARIABILITY GRAINS Y ASCHE F, 1999, J AGR RESOUR ECON, V24, P429 BALTAGI BH, 1995, ECONOMETRIC ANAL PAN BRYANT CR, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P181 EITZINGER J, 2001, ECOLOGY EC, V52, P199 HARVEY AC, 1976, ECONOMETRICA, V44, P461 HAZELL PBR, 1984, AM J AGR ECON, V66, P302 HOUGHTON JT, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995 HUANG TH, 2004, APPL ECON LETT, V11, P297 IM KS, 1997, UNPUB TESTING UNIT R ISIK M, 2003, AM J AGR ECON, V85, P305 JOHNSTON J, 1997, ECONOMETRIC METHODS JUST RE, 1978, J ECONOMETRICS, V7, P67 KANWAR S, 1999, APPL ECON, V31, P307 KUMBHAKAR SC, 1997, APPL ECON, V29, P379 LEWANDROWSKI JK, 1999, LAND ECON, V75, P39 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 MEARNS LO, 1997, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V35, P367 MENDELSOHN R, 1994, AM ECON REV, V84, P753 MENDELSOHN R, 1996, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V80, P55 POLSKY C, 2001, AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON, V85, P133 SAHA A, 1997, APPL ECON, V29, P459 SANTER B, 1984, SOCIOECONOMIC IMPACT SCHIMMELPFENNIG D, 1999, GLOBAL ENV CHANGE AG, P193 SMITH JB, 2004, SYNTHESIS POTENTIAL TERJUNG WH, 1984, INT J BIOMETEOROL, V28, P279 NR 29 TC 0 J9 APPL ECON BP 835 EP 844 PY 2006 PD APR 20 VL 38 IS 7 GA 044AY UT ISI:000237645600008 ER PT J AU Ueland, J Warf, B TI Racialized topographies: Altitude and race in southern cities SO GEOGRAPHICAL REVIEW LA English DT Review C1 Ohio Univ, Athens, OH 45701 USA. Florida State Univ, Tallahassee, FL 32306 USA. RP Ueland, J, Ohio Univ, Athens, OH 45701 USA. AB This study examines altitudinal residential segregation by race in 146 cities in the U.S. South. It begins by embedding the topic in recent theorizations of the social construction of nature, the geography of race, and environmental justice. Second, it focuses on how housing markets, particularly in the South, tend to segregate minorities in low-lying, flood-prone, and amenity-poor segments of urban areas. It tests empirically the hypothesis that blacks are disproportionately concentrated in lower-altitude areas using GIs to correlate race and elevation by digital elevation-model block group within each city in 1990 and 2000. The statistical results confirm the suspected trend. A map of coefficients indicates strong positive associations in cities in the interior South-where the hypothesis is confirmed-and an inverse relationship near the coast, where whites dominate higher-valued coastal properties. Selected city case studies demonstrate these relationships connecting the broad dynamics of racial segregation to the particularities of individual places. 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Article C1 Indian Inst Technol, Dept Civil Engn, Kanpur 208016, Uttar Pradesh, India. RP Singh, RP, Indian Inst Technol, Dept Civil Engn, Kanpur 208016, Uttar Pradesh, India. CR WATSON RT, 1998, REGIONAL IMPACTS CLI, V1, P1 ADLER RF, 1988, J APPL METEOROL, V27, P30 ADLER RF, 1993, J APPL METEOROL, V32, P335 FRANCIS PA, 2002, INTENSE RAINFALL EVE FRANCIS PA, 2002, THESIS IISC BANGALOR GADGIL S, 2004, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V31 GRIFFITH CG, 1978, MON WEATHER REV, V106, P1153 JANOWIAK JE, 2001, B AM METEOROL SOC, V82, P205 JOYCE R, 1997, J ATMOS OCEAN TECH, V14, P997 LAL M, 1995, CURR SCI INDIA, V69, P752 LONERGAN S, 1998, MEASURING IMPACT CLI LOVEJOY S, 1979, ATMOS OCEAN, V17, P1048 MASON SJ, 1999, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V41, P249 MAY W, 2004, GLOBAL PLANET CHANGE, V44, P83 SCORER RS, 1989, INT J REMOTE SENS, V10, P675 STEPHENSON DB, 1999, MON WEATHER REV, V127, P1954 VICENTE GA, 1996, P 8 C SAT MET OC ATL, P274 WU R, 1985, J ATMOS OCEAN TECH, V2, P314 NR 18 TC 0 J9 PHOTONIRVACHAK-J INDIAN SOC R BP 365 EP 370 PY 2005 PD SEP VL 33 IS 3 GA 142TC UT ISI:000244672000001 ER PT J AU ZIMMERER, KS TI SOIL-EROSION AND SOCIAL (DIS)COURSES IN COCHABAMBA, BOLIVIA - PERCEIVING THE NATURE OF ENVIRONMENTAL DEGRADATION SO ECONOMIC GEOGRAPHY LA English DT Article RP ZIMMERER, KS, UNIV WISCONSIN,DEPT GEOG,MADISON,WI 53706. AB Soil erosion in Cochabamba, Bolivia, has not been perceived uniformly by development institutions, peasants in their personal perspectives, and rural trade unions. Development institutions that attributed soil erosion to peasant farmers voiced the most well-known perceptions about the erosion dilemma until the mid-1980s. The personal perspectives of many peasants reinforced this view by placing blame on their own behavior. Since the 1980s, these dominant discourses have been implicitly contested by the viewpoints of numerous peasants (especially young adults) who stress links between government policies and worsening erosion. Young peasant viewpoints have been accommodated by rural trade unions. Different perceptions of soil erosion among and within the three groups were shaped by contrasting livelihood experiences and by differing efforts at shaping conservation programs and related development measures. This study demonstrates the importance to conservation-oriented development of understanding the perceptions of local inhabitants and institutions with respect to biophysical resources in general and environmental degradation in particular. 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RP Chaturvedi, S, Panjab Univ, Chandigarh 160014, India. AB Critical geopolitics seeks to problematise the concept of environmental security and its relationship to social and political practices of dominance in local, national and international politics. While environmental problems do undoubtedly exist in the Indian Ocean, conflicting perspectives and future prospects for common security within and between countries, subregions and social groups, suggest that a better understanding of how ecological threats are described, prioritised, and globalised and how knowledge about environmental degradation and sustainable development is produced as a political resource, is possible only by contesting, or at least by going beyond, the conventional categories and typologies which privilege and protect certain actors, interests and priorities. 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AB Nonpoint source ground-water contamination, resulting from regional scale applications of agrichemicals, is a major environmental issue. Several federal and state government funded modeling efforts were undertaken in the 1980s to assess ground-water vulnerability from past and current chemical use and to potentially aid in the regulation of new chemicals. This paper is concerned with the impact of data uncertainties in regional scale pesticide leaching assessments for the chemical diuron in the Pearl Harbor Basin on the Hawaiian island of Oahu. in the first part of the paper uncertainties in soil, recharge, and chemical data are artificially reduced to study the impact of reduced data uncertainties on ground-water vulnerability assessments made with simple mobility indices; the greatest improvements were realized for improvements in the chemical data. In the second part of the paper the impact of improvements to the Hawaii soil data, in the form of new soil organic carbon information, is characterized relative to changes in ground-water vulnerability assessments made with a simple index. The additional soil organic carbon data does not yield improvements to the original vulnerability assessment that would be considered justifiable. The best use of regional scale chemical leaching assessments based upon modeling approaches as simple as index methods is for guiding data collection strategies. 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RP Dominguez, L, Univ Cadiz, Fac Marine & Environm Sci, Dept Geol, Poligono Rio San Pedro S-N, Cadiz 11510, Spain. AB The present study assesses coastal vulnerability to erosion processes along a 23-km-long coastal sector that presents different morphological features and grades of human occupation. Seven photogrammetric flights, at different scales, were used for reconstructing the coastal evolution from 1956 to 2001. Several sources were compiled to assess human activities and land uses in the coastal zones that were mapped and divided into four different types. As a further step, coastal vulnerability to erosion was assessed combining the potential coastal retreat with land-use type. More than one third of the studied coast presents a very high-medium risk level and many human structures and activities at Sanlucar village and La Ballena beach will be threatened by erosional processes in the near future. CR *DIP CAD, 2003, AG 21 COST NOR PROV *LOICZ, 1995, LOICZ REP STUD, V3 ANFUSO G, 2001, J COASTAL CONSERVATI, V7, P71 ANFUSO G, 2005, IN PRESS J COASTAL R BERLANGAROBLES CA, 2002, J COASTAL RES, V18, P514 BIRD EC, 1993, SUBMERGING COASTS, P184 BUSH D, 1996, 96506 US GEOL SURV COOPER JAG, 1998, J COASTAL RES, V14, P512 CROWELL M, 1991, J COASTAL RES, V7, P839 CROWELL M, 1993, SHORE BEACH, V61, P13 CROWELL M, 1999, J COASTAL RES SI, V1, P2 DALCIN R, 1989, COASTAL ZONE, V89, P98 DALCIN R, 1994, J COASTAL RES, V10, P18 DOLAN R, 1980, SHORE BEACH, V48, P22 DOLAN R, 1991, J COASTAL RES, V7, P723 DOMINGUEZ L, 2004, REV SOC GEOLOGICA ES, V17, P71 ELASMAR HM, 2002, J COASTAL RES, V18, P433 GORMAN L, 1998, J COASTAL RES, V14, P61 GORNITZ V, 1990, J COASTAL RES SPECIA, V9, P201 GORNITZ V, 1993, DEAC05EM84OR21400 OR HANSOM JD, 2001, CATENA, V42, P291 JIMENEZ JA, 1993, MAR GEOL, V114, P105 KELLY J, 2000, 3 S IB ATL MARG, P373 LIZARRAGAARCINIEGA, 2001, J COASTAL RES, V17, P636 LUQUE L, 2001, ACTA GEOL HISP, V36, P197 MCLAUGHLIN S, 2002, J COASTAL RES SI, V36, P487 MOORE LJ, 2000, J COASTAL RES, V16, P111 MUNOZ JJ, 1998, REV OBRAS PUBLICAS, V3375, P35 MUNOZ JJ, 1999, B GEOLOGICO MINERO, V110, P1 PAJAK MJ, 2002, J COASTAL RES, V18, P329 PETHICK J, 2001, CATENA, V42, P307 REYES JL, 1999, B ESPANOL OCEANOGRAF, V15, P221 RODRIGUEZRAMIREZ A, 2003, SCI TOTAL ENVIRON, V303, P189 RODWELL MJ, 1999, NATURE, V398, P320 SANCHEZARCILLA A, 1998, J COASTAL RES, V14, P754 SHORT AD, 1999, BEACH SHOREFACE MORP, P379 SMITH GL, 1990, J COASTAL RES, V6, P111 VALPREDA E, 2003, J COASTAL CONSERV, V9, P43 NR 38 TC 1 J9 ENVIRON GEOL BP 1037 EP 1044 PY 2005 PD MAY VL 47 IS 8 GA 934VH UT ISI:000229736500001 ER PT J AU Villers-Ruiz, L Trejo-Vazquez, I TI Climate change on Mexican forests and natural protected areas SO GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS LA English DT Article C1 Univ Nacl Autonoma Mexico, Inst Geog, Mexico City 04510, DF, Mexico. RP Villers-Ruiz, L, Univ Nacl Autonoma Mexico, Inst Geog, Ap Postal 20-850, Mexico City 04510, DF, Mexico. AB In order to determine the vulnerability of Mexican forest ecosystems,natural protected and forestry areas to climate change, an assessment was performed under two climate change scenarios generated by the Canadian Climate Center (CCC) and the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) models. Based on Holdridge's life zones and local classifications, the results suggest that the most vulnerable life zones would be temperate cold and warm forests, mainly due to the increase in temperature. Tropical dry, very dry and thorn forests would enlarge their current area coverage under the climate change CCC scenario, while under the GFDL scenario increases in the distribution of tropical humid and wet forests would occur. For some ecosystems, such as tropical forest, climate change is a minor threat compared to the degradation currently induced by human activities, A current land-use assessment indicates that, in the recent years, the ecosystems most affected by human activities are the tropical forests due to the expansion of grasslands for tropical cattle ranching, Man-induced forest fires, to increase pasture production, are the main cause of degradation in temperate forests. The natural protected areas most affected by climate change would be the northern and western regions of the country, as well as the southern tropical mountains where an important number of endemic plants exist. On the other hand, forestry areas that would be most affected are located in the Sierra Madre Occidental, where timber exploitation in coniferous forests is high. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. CR 1996, TALLER VULNERABILIDA *INE CONABIO, 1995, RES BIOSF OTR AR NAT, P159 *IPCC, 1966, 12 PLEN M CANC MEX, P12 *ITC, 1992, INTEGRATED LAND WATE, P287 *SARH, 1991, INT PROGR NAC REF TE *SARH, 1992, COMP INF AR NAT PROT, P146 *SARH, 1994, INV NAC FOR PER, P81 *US COUNTR STUD PR, 1994, PO63 US COUNTR STUD *US COUNTR STUD PR, 1994, TRAIN WORKSH VULN AD *US COUNTR STUD PR, 1995, CLIM VAR CLIM CHANG *US COUNTR STUD PR, 1996, VULN AD CLIM CHANG S AUSTIN MP, 1992, AUST J BOT, V40, P615 BAKER BB, 1993, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V25, P97 BAKER JR, 1995, J BIOGEOGR, V22, P743 BELLON MR, 1994, RESPONSE OPTIONS SEQ BENIOFF R, 1996, STEPS PREPARING CLIM BOLIN B, 1986, GREENHOUSE EFFECT CL CONDE C, 1994, MEMORIAS PRIMER TALL, P39 CONDE C, 1994, MEMORIAS SEGUNDO TAL, P101 DIXON RK, 1994, SCIENCE, V263, P185 DIXON RK, 1996, CLIMATE RES, V6, P127 GARCIA E, 1988, MODIFICACIONES SISTE, P217 GAY C, 1994, MEMORIAS PRIMER TALL, P236 GAY C, 1996, REPORTE ACCION CLIMA, P194 HALPIN PN, 1994, MOUNTAIN ENV GEOGRAP, P309 HOLDRIDGE LR, 1967, LIFE ZONE ECOLOGY, P206 LENIHAN JM, 1995, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V30, P27 LOPEZBLANCO J, 1994, MEMORIAS 1 TALLER ES, P227 LOPEZBLANCO J, 1994, THESIS UNAM MAGANA V, 1997, IN PRESS CLIMATE RES MARKHAM A, 1996, CLIMATE RES, V6, P179 MASERA OR, 1995, BIOMASS BIOENERG, V8, P357 MASERA OR, 1997, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V35, P265 MITTERMEIR RA, 1992, MEXICO ANTE RETOS BI, P343 PETERS RL, 1985, BIOSCIENCE, V35, P707 PIMM SL, 1994, SCIENCE, V263, P933 SHUGART HH, 1984, THEORY FOREST DYNAMI SHUGART HH, 1996, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V34, P131 SMITH TM, 1992, ADV ECOL RES, V22, P13 STEFFEN WL, 1996, J VEG SCI, V7, P321 SUKUMAR R, 1995, J BIOGEOGR, V22, P533 TELLEZ LK, 1994, MODERNIZACION SECTOR, P307 VILLERSRUIZ L, 1995, 6 INESEMARNAP VILLERSRUIZ L, 1997, CLIMATE RES, V9, P87 WATSON RT, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, V1, P1 NR 45 TC 2 J9 GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANGE BP 141 EP 157 PY 1998 PD JUL VL 8 IS 2 GA 101FX UT ISI:000074859900004 ER PT J AU Schneider, SH Root, TL TI Ecological implications of climate change will include surprises SO BIODIVERSITY AND CONSERVATION LA English DT Article RP Schneider, SH, STANFORD UNIV,DEPT BIOL SCI,STANFORD,CA 94305. AB In addition to assessing the impacts of CO2 doubling on environment and society, more consideration is needed to estimate extreme events or 'surprises'. This is particularly important at the intersection of disciplines like climate and ecology because the potential for large discontinuities is high given all the possible climate/biota interactions. The vast disparities in scales encountered by those working in traditional ecology (typically 20 m) and climatology (typically 200 km) make diagnoses of such interactions difficult, but these can be addressed by an emerging research paradigm we call strategic cyclical scaling (SCS). The need to anticipate outlier events and assign them subjective probabilities suggests emphasis on interdisciplinary research associations. The desire to reduce societal vulnerability to such events suggests the need to build adaptive management and diverse economic activities into social organizations. The effectiveness of adaptation responses to anticipated climatic changes is complicated when consideration of transient changes, regional disturbances, large unforseeable natural fluctuations and surprises are considered. Slowing down the rate of disturbances and decreasing vulnerability are advocated as the most prudent responses to the prospect of human-induced climatic changes. CR *IPCC, 1996, CLIM CHANGE 195 SCI BROECKER WS, 1989, GEOCHIM COSMOCHIM AC, V53, P2465 CARPENTER SR, 1995, SCIENCE, V269, P324 EHLERINGER JR, 1993, SCALING PHYSL PROCES EPSTEIN PR, 1994, ANN NY ACAD SCI, V740, P423 HOLLING CS, 1986, SUSTAINABLE DEV BIOS, V1, P1 HOUGHTON JT, 1990, CLIMATE CHANGE IPCC IDSO SB, 1993, GLOBAL BIOGEOCHEM CY, V7, P537 KAREIVA P, 1988, COMMUNITY ECOLOGY, P35 LEVIN SA, 1992, ECOLOGY, V73, P1943 MEANS IO, 1984, J CLIMATE APPL METER, V23, P1601 MORGAN MG, 1995, ENVIRON SCI TECHNOL, V29, A468 MYERS N, 1995, SCIENCE, V269, P358 NORDHAUS WD, 1994, AM SCI, V82, P45 OECHEL WC, 1994, NATURE, V371, P500 PACALA SW, 1993, BIOTIC INTERACTIONS, P57 ROOT TL, 1993, CONSERV BIOL, V7, P256 ROOT TL, 1995, SCIENCE, V269, P331 ROSENBERG NJ, 1994, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V4, P49 ROSENZWEIG C, 1993, GLOBAL EN CHANGE, V4, P7 SCHNEIDER SH, 1985, GLOBAL POSSIBLE RESO, P397 SCHNEIDER SH, 1994, SCIENCE, V263, P341 SCHNEIDER SH, 1995, ELEMENTS CHANGE 1994, P130 SMITH JB, 1988, POTENTIAL EFFECTS GL, V1 SMITH JB, 1988, POTENTIAL EFFECTS GL, V2 TITUS JG, 1996, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V33, P151 NR 26 TC 14 J9 BIODIVERS CONSERV BP 1109 EP 1119 PY 1996 PD SEP VL 5 IS 9 GA VH808 UT ISI:A1996VH80800008 ER PT J AU Moser, SC Tribbia, J TI Vulnerability to inundation and climate change impacts in California: Coastal managers' attitudes and perceptions SO MARINE TECHNOLOGY SOCIETY JOURNAL LA English DT Article C1 Natl Ctr Atmospher Res, Boulder, CO 80307 USA. Univ Colorado, Dept Sociol, Boulder, CO 80309 USA. RP Moser, SC, POB 3000, Boulder, CO 80307 USA. AB Coastal California has witnessed persistent sea-level rise (10-20 cm) along its southern and central open ocean coastal sections and in San Francisco Bay over the past century. This paper aims to understand the perceptions of local coastal managers in California of current inundation-related risks, the added risks from climate change, and vulnerability to the growing coastal problems. We also explore the extent to which coastal managers are beginning to think about and tackle these increasing management challenges. Survey results presented here suggest that inundation already creates critical management challenges in California, but other, non-inundation-related coastal problems also vie for managers' attention. Despite high awareness of global warming and moderately good understanding of potential impact so climate change on coastal areas, currently pressing issues and limited staff time and resources constrain their ability to begin dealing with the growing risks from sea-level rise. The sobering conclusion is that California is inadequately preparing for the impacts of climate change on coastal areas at this time. Local government will need substantial support from state and federal agencies if the level of preparedness for climate change and other inundation-related risks is to be elevated in the future. CR *CA COAST COMM, 2001, OV SEA LEV RIS SOM I *CA OC PROT COUNC, 2006, VIS OUR OC COAST 5 Y *NAT RES COUNC, 1987, RESP CHANG SEA LEV E *NAT RES COUNC, 1990, MAN COAST ER *NAT RES COUNC, 1990, SEA LEV CHANG *PEW OC COMM, 2003, AM LIV OC CHART COUR ALLEY RB, 2005, SCIENCE, V310, P456 BURBY RJ, 1991, J URBAN PLAN D-ASCE, V117, P140 CAYAN D, 2006, CEC5002005202SF CHURCH JA, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, P639 DOLAN R, 1990, GEOTIMES, V41, P22 DOWDESWELL JA, 2006, SCIENCE, V311, P963 FLICK RE, 1984, EXTREME SEA LEVELS C FLICK RE, 1998, SHORE BEACH, V66, P7 HAMMARKLOSE ES, 2001, USGS DIGITAL DATA SE, V68 HANSON H, 1993, AMBIO, V22, P188 HANSON H, 1996, FORUM APPL RES PUBLI, V11, P86 HAPKE CJ, 2006, 20061219 US GEOL SUR KLARIN P, 1989, CHANGING CLIMATE COA, P297 KRABILL W, 2004, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V31 LEATHERMAN SP, 2000, EOS T, V81, P55 LUERS AL, 2006, PREPARING IMPACTS CL MCLEAN RF, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, P343 MEEHL GA, 2005, SCIENCE, V307, P1769 MOORE LJ, 2002, MAR GEOL, V181, P265 MOSER SC, 2000, EVALUATION EROSION H MOSER SC, 2005, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V15, P353 MOSER SC, 2006, GLOBAL ENV ASSESSMEN, P201 RIGNOT E, 2006, SCIENCE, V311, P986 ROEMMICH D, 1992, SCIENCE, V257, P373 RYAN H, 1999, EL NINO SEA LEVEL RI SALLENGER AH, 2002, MAR GEOL, V187, P279 SHEPHERD A, 2004, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V31 SLOTT JM, 2006, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V33 STORLAZZI CD, 2000, GEOL SOC AM BULL, V112, P236 THIELER ER, 2000, 00178 US GEOL SURV U WIGLEY TML, 2005, SCIENCE, V307, P1766 NR 37 TC 0 J9 MAR TECHNOL SOC J BP 35 EP 44 PY 2006 PD WIN VL 40 IS 4 GA 146YK UT ISI:000244970400006 ER PT J AU Wood, G TI Staying secure, staying poor: The "Faustian bargain" SO WORLD DEVELOPMENT LA English DT Article C1 Univ Bath, Bath BA2 7AY, Avon, England. RP Wood, G, Univ Bath, Bath BA2 7AY, Avon, England. AB The determining condition for poor people is uncertainty. Some societies perform better than others in mitigating this uncertainty. In such societies we observe welfare regimes which reduce the uncertainties of the market to provide for all citizens minimum conditions for reproduction. Such societies are in a minority. Elsewhere, destructive uncertainty is more pervasive. Under these conditions, the poor have less control over relationships and events around them. They are obliged to live more in the present and to discount the future. Risk management in the present involves loyalty to institutions and organizations that presently work and deliver livelihoods, whatever the longer term cost. Strategic preparation for the future, in terms of personal investment and securing rights backed up by correlative duties, is continuously postponed for survival and security in the present-the Faustian bargain. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *JID, 2000, J INT DEV, V12 *UNDP, 2000, HUM DEV REP 2000 *WORLD BANK, 2000, 20001 WORLD BANK ANDERSON B, 1983, IMAGINED COMMUNITIES BAILEY FG, 1966, PEASANTS PEASANT SOC BARRIENTOS A, 2001, SOCIAL POLICY DEV CO BECKER G, 1981, TREATISE FAMILY BEVAN P, 2001, DYNAMICS AFRICAN SEC CARNEY D, 1998, SUSTAINABLE RURAL LI CHAMBERS R, 1982, RURAL DEV PUTTING LA COLLARD D, 2001, INT J SOC WELF, V10, P54 DEWAAL A, 1989, FAMINE KILLS DAFUR S DOYALL L, 1991, THEORY HUMAN NEED ESPINGANDERSEN G, 1990, 3 WORLDS WELFARE CAP ESPINGANDERSEN G, 1999, SOCIAL FDN POSTINDUS FUKUYAMA F, 1995, TRUST SOCIAL VIRTUES GRANOVETTER MS, 1985, AM J SOCIOL, V9, P481 HARDY H, 1978, RUSSIAN THINKERS COL HIRSCHMAN AO, 1970, EXIT VOICE LOYALTY JESMIN S, 2000, J INT DEV, V12, P689 KANBUR R, 2001, EC POLICY DISTRIBUTI KEARNEY M, 1996, RECONCEPTUALISING PE KHAN MIA, 2000, THESIS U BATH UK LANDELLMILLS P, 2001, BETTER GOVERNANCE BE LAWSONMCDOWALL B, 2000, THESIS U BATH UK LEWIS D, 1992, GOING IT ALONE FEMAL LIPTON M, 1968, J DEV STUDIES APR LOUGHHEAD S, 2000, UNPUB URBAN POVERTY MOSER CON, 1998, WORLD DEV, V26, P1 NUSSBAUM M, 2000, WOMEN HUMAN DEV OPEL AEO, 2000, J INT DEV, V12, P735 PLATTEAU J, 1991, 25 JUB IDS SUSS U PUTNAM R, 1993, MAKING DEMOCRACY WOR ROBERTS B, 1978, CITIES PEASANTS ROOM G, 2000, BREADLINE EUROPE MEA SCHAFFER BB, 1974, SOC SCI INFORM, V13, P73 SCOTT JC, 1976, MORAL EC PEASANT REB SEN AK, 1981, POVERTY FAMINES ESSA, V1, P1 SEN AK, 1982, CHOICE WELFARE MEASU SWIFT J, 1989, IDS B, V20, P8 WOOD G, 1994, BANGLADESH WHOSE IDE WOOD G, 2000, J INT DEV, V12, P669 WOOD G, 2001, J INT DEV, V13, P523 WOOD G, 2002, UNPUB CROSSROADS DEV WOOD G, 2003, INSECURITY WELFARE R NR 45 TC 0 J9 WORLD DEVELOP BP 455 EP 471 PY 2003 PD MAR VL 31 IS 3 GA 662PN UT ISI:000181956500005 ER PT J AU Haberle, SG David, B TI Climates of change: human dimensions of Holocene environmental change in low latitudes of the PEPII transect SO QUATERNARY INTERNATIONAL LA English DT Article C1 Monash Univ, Sch Geog & Environm Sci, Clayton, Vic 3800, Australia. Monash Univ, Programme Australian Indigenous Archaeol, Sch Geog & Environm Sci, Clayton, Vic 3800, Australia. RP Haberle, SG, Australian Natl Univ, Res Sch Pacific & Asian Studies, Resource Management Asia Pacific Program, Canberra, ACT 0200, Australia. AB Rapid climate change events can have devastating impacts upon agricultural production and human society. Advances in spatial and temporal resolution of palaeoenvironmental and archaeological data enable detailed examination of the nature of human-environment interactions. Recent studies have shown that throughout the Holocene human populations responded to rapid climate change events by existing subsistence strategies adopting to novel environmental conditions. In the case of agriculturalists in New Guinea and hunter-gatherers in northern Australia, climate change set in motion a range of biological and demographic possibilities and restrictions that had long-term consequences for each region. The early Holocene climatic and ensuing environmental transformations heightened natural biomass production and Population increases. Consequently, later rapid changes in climate centred around 6000 and 3500 cal yr BP, resulted in the adoption of innovative technologies and diverse subsistence strategies throughout the region that reduced the vulnerability of people in an environment of increasing unpredictable climate variability. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd and INQUA. All rights reserved. CR ADLER M, 2002, INSCRIBED LANDSCAPES, P200 ALLEN B, 1989, MT RES DEV, V9, P279 BARMAWIDJAJA BM, 1993, PALAEOGEOGR PALAEOCL, V101, P147 BAYLISSSMITH T, 1992, ARCHAEOLOGY OCEANIA, V27, P1 BAYLISSSMITH T, 1996, ORIGINS SPREAD AGR P, P499 BEATON J, 1985, ARCHAEOLOGY OCEANIA, V20, P1 BELLWOOD P, 1996, ORIGINS SPREAD AGR P, P465 BELLWOOD P, 1997, PREHISTORY INDOMALAY BERGER A, 1991, QUATERNARY SCI REV, V10, P297 BINFORD MW, 1997, QUATERNARY RES, V47, P235 BINGFORD LR, 2001, CONSTRUCTING FRAMES BIRD MI, 2003, AUSTRALASIA QUATERNA BOURKE RM, 2000, NINO HIST CRISIS, P149 BROECKER WS, 1998, PALEOCEANOGRAPHY, V13, P119 BROOKFIELD H, 1989, MT RES DEV, V9, P306 BURTON J, 1984, THESIS AUSTR NATL U CAMPBELL JB, 1982, AUSTRALIAN ARCHAEOL, V14, P62 CASHDAN E, 2001, AM ANTHROPOL, V103, P968 CLEMENT AC, 2000, PALEOCEANOGRAPHY, V15, P731 DALFES N, 1997, NATO ASI SERIES, V1 DAVID B, 2002, LANDSCAPES ROCK ART DEMENOCAL PB, 2001, SCIENCE, V292, P667 DIMITRIADIS S, 2001, PALAEOGEOGR PALAEOCL, V176, P109 DWYER PD, 1992, J POLYNESIAN SOC, V101, P373 FLENLEY JR, 1998, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V39, P177 GAGAN MK, 2003, QUATERNARY INT GILLIESON D, 1983, ARCHAEOLOGY OCEANIA, V18, P53 GOLSON J, 1977, SUNDA SAHUL PREHISTO, P601 GOLSON J, 1990, ANNU REV ANTHROPOL, V19, P395 GOLSON J, 1991, INDO PACIFIC PREHIST, V2, P82 GRIMM EC, 1991, TILE VERSION 2 1 TIL GROOTES PM, 1993, NATURE, V366, P552 GROVES RH, 1997, ECOLOGY CLIMATE EMPI, P1400 HABERLE S, 1993, SAHUL REV, P109 HABERLE SG, 1991, J BIOGEOGR, V18, P25 HABERLE SG, 1998, PALAEOGEOGR PALAEOCL, V137, P1 HABERLE SG, 2000, ENVIRON HIST, V6, P349 HABERLE SG, 2000, NINO HIST CRISIS, P66 HABERLE SG, 2001, PALAEOGEOGR PALAEOCL, V171, P259 HISCOCK P, 1992, NAIVE LANDS PREHISTO, P43 HODDEL DA, 1995, NATURE, V375, P391 HOPE GS, 1947, EQUATORIAL GLACIERS, V1, P173 HOPE GS, 1976, J ECOL, V64, P627 HUANG CY, 1997, EARTH PLANET SC LETT, V146, P59 JARVIS DI, 1993, QUATERNARY RES, V39, P325 KIENAST M, 2001, SCIENCE, V291, P2132 LEA DW, 2000, SCIENCE, V289, P1719 LIU L, 2000, B INDOPACIFIC PREHIS, V20, P14 LIU ZY, 2000, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V27, P2265 LOURANDOS H, 2002, BRIDGES WALLACES LIN, P97 MALONEY BK, 1995, QUATERNARY SCI REV, V14, P949 MCNIVEN IJ, 1999, AUSTR COASTAL ARCHAE, P157 MEGGERS BJ, 1994, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V28, P321 MYERS N, 2000, NATURE, V403, P853 ORTLIEB L, 2000, NINO SO OSCILLATION, P207 OVERPECK JT, 1996, SCIENCE, V271, P1820 PELEJERO C, 1999, PALEOCEANOGRAPHY, V14, P24 PLOG S, 1997, ANCIENT PEOPLE AM SW RICK JW, 1987, AM ANTIQUITY, V52, P55 ROWLAND MJ, 1983, AUSTR ABORIGINAL STU, V2, P62 ROWLAND MJ, 1999, ARTEFACT, V22, P11 SHULMEISTER J, 1995, HOLOCENE, V5, P10 SPRIGGS M, 1996, ORIGINS SPREAD AGR P, P524 STOTT L, 2002, SCIENCE, V297, P222 STUIVER M, 1993, RADIOCARBON, V35, P215 TAPPER N, 2002, BRIDGING WALLACE LIN, P5 THOMPSON LG, 1994, HUM ECOL, V22, P83 WALKER D, 1979, PHILOS T ROY SOC B, V286, P265 WATSON VD, 1977, PREHISTORY E HIGHLAN WEBSTER PJ, 1978, QUATERNARY RES, V10, P279 WEISS H, 2000, CONFRONTING NATURAL, P75 WEISS H, 2001, SCIENCE, V291, P609 WHITE JP, 1970, P PREHIST SOC, V36, P152 WILLIAMS PR, 2002, WORLD ARCHAEOL, V33, P361 WYRWOLL KH, 2001, QUATERN INT, V83, P119 NR 75 TC 0 J9 QUATERN INT BP 165 EP 179 PY 2004 VL 118-19 GA 826VL UT ISI:000221857500011 ER PT J AU Krishna, KS TI Science plan for coastal hazard preparedness SO CURRENT SCIENCE LA English DT Article C1 Natl Inst Oceanog, Panaji 403004, Goa, India. RP Krishna, KS, Natl Inst Oceanog, Panaji 403004, Goa, India. AB The tsunami that hit the coast of India on 26 December 2004 reminded the country that our 7000 km long coastline is exposed to hazards and that we are not prepared to face all of them. Preparedness to guard against hazards requires that we examine scientifically all issues associated with them. Hence, a science plan, including its implementation to address these issues, was prepared at a national workshop held at the National Institute of Oceanography, Goa. The plan identifies the factors that determine vulnerability of a coastal area to hazards and the hazards that are experienced along the Indian coast. Preparedness is defined and the science issues that need to be addressed to enhance our preparedness are identified. The issues are categorized into seven areas. (i) Identification of past storm surges and tsunamis in tide-gauge data, and their simulation; (ii) reconstruction of time series of past storm surges and tsunamis from geological record; (iii) geomorphology, nearshore bathymetry, and coastal inundation; (iv) coastal pollution; (v) seismicity; (vi) engineering; and (vii) education. Plan for implementation is also presented. CR 2005, NRSA NEWSL JAN BRYANT E, 2001, TSUNAMI UNDERRATED H GADGIL S, 1984, NATURE, V312, P141 GRAY WM, 1975, 232 COL STAT U NR 4 TC 0 J9 CURR SCI BP 1339 EP 1347 PY 2005 PD OCT 25 VL 89 IS 8 GA 983WI UT ISI:000233262600018 ER PT J AU Wyeratne, MA TI Vulnerability of Sri Lanka tea production to global climate change (vol 92, pg 87, 1996) SO WATER AIR AND SOIL POLLUTION LA English DT Correction, Addition CR WYERATNE MA, 1996, WATER AIR SOIL POLL, V92, P87 NR 1 TC 0 J9 WATER AIR SOIL POLLUT BP 369 EP 369 PY 1997 PD MAY VL 96 IS 1-4 GA XJ621 UT ISI:A1997XJ62100024 ER PT J AU Twarakavi, NKC Kaluarachchi, JJ TI Aquifer vulnerability assessment to heavy metals using ordinal logistic regression SO GROUND WATER LA English DT Article C1 Utah State Univ, Utah Water Res Lab, Logan, UT 84321 USA. RP Twarakavi, NKC, Utah State Univ, Utah Water Res Lab, Logan, UT 84321 USA. AB A methodology using ordinal logistic regression is proposed to predict the probability of occurrence of heavy metals in ground water. The predicted probabilities are defined with reference to the background concentration and the maximum contaminant level. The model is able to predict the occurrence due to different influencing variables such as the land use, soil hydrologic group (SHG), and surface elevation. The methodology was applied to the Sumas-Blaine Aquifer located in Washington State to predict the occurrence of five heavy metals. The influencing variables considered were (1) SHG; (2) land use; (3) elevation; (4) clay content; (5) hydraulic conductivity; and (6) well depth. The predicted probabilities were in agreement with the observed probabilities under existing conditions. The results showed that aquifer vulnerability to each heavy metal was related to different sets of influencing variables. However, all heavy metals had a strong influence from land use and SHG. The model results also provided good insight into the influence of various hydrogeochemical factors and land uses on the presence of each heavy metal. A simple economic analysis was proposed and demonstrated to evaluate the cost effects of changing the land use on heavy metal occurrence. CR *NRC, 1993, GROUNDW VULN ASS CON *NRCS, 1992, SOIL SURV REP WHATC *WRIA, 2002, COMMUNICATION AFIFI AA, 1984, LOGISTIC REGRESSION BERKA C, 1995, LOWER FRASER BASIN T COX S, 1999, 984195 US GEOL SURVE DECARLO EH, 2002, APPL GEOCHEM, V17, P475 ECKHARDT DAV, 1995, GROUND WATER, V33, P1019 ERICKSON D, 1998, WASHINGTON STATE DEP ERICKSON D, 2000, WASHINGTON STATE DEP HELSEL DR, 1992, STAT METHODS WATER R HOSMER DW, 1989, APPL LOGISTIC REGRES KALUARACHCHI JJ, 2002, NITROGEN PESTICIDE KEHEW AE, 2000, APPL CHEM HYDROGEOLO KEMBLOWSKI M, 2001, GROUNDWATER QUANTITY KLEINBAUM DG, 1994, LOGISTIC REGRESSION KOTERBA MT, 1995, 95399 USGS KOTUBYAMACHER J, 1988, FACTORS AFFECTING TR MCBRIDE MB, 1994, ENV CHEM MCCULLAGH P, 1980, J ROY STAT SOC B MET, V42, P109 NEWCOMB WD, 2002, APPL GEOCHEM, V17, P49 NOLAN BT, 2001, GROUND WATER, V39, P290 NOLAN BT, 2002, ENVIRON SCI TECHNOL, V26, P2138 ROOSE M, 2002, WASHINGTON STATE DEP RUPERT MG, 1998, 984204 US GEOL SURV SELIM HM, 2001, HEAVY METAL RELEASE SMEDLEY PL, 2002, APPL GEOCHEM, V17, P517 SOLLEY WB, 1993, 1081 USGS TESORIERO AJ, 1997, GROUND WATER, V35, P1029 TESORIERO AJ, 1998, P SOURC WAT ASS PROT TOOLEY J, 1996, 96311 WASH STAT DEP WARNER KL, 2001, GROUND WATER, V39, P433 ZELEWSKI LM, 2001, GROUND WATER, V39, P485 NR 33 TC 3 J9 GROUND WATER BP 200 EP 214 PY 2005 PD MAR-APR VL 43 IS 2 GA 908ZI UT ISI:000227828300008 ER PT J AU Liverman, DM TI Vulnerability and adaptation to drought in Mexico SO NATURAL RESOURCES JOURNAL LA English DT Article C1 Univ Arizona, Dept Geog & Reg Dev, Tucson, AZ 85721 USA. RP Liverman, DM, Univ Arizona, Dept Geog & Reg Dev, Tucson, AZ 85721 USA. AB The country of Mexico has a long and varied experience with drought, whether described by early historical chronicles or contemporary climatic data and disaster declarations. Much of Mexico is semi-arid and interannual rainfall is highly variable. The experience of drought has resulted in a wide range of adaptations to climate variability, yet today many Mexicans are still extremely vulnerable to lower than average rainfall. This article provides an overview of the nature, causes and consequences of drought in Mexico, focusing on how vulnerability and adaptations vary over time anti space. Some preliminary results of a case study of the recent drought in northern Mexico illustrate the state of vulnerability and the limits of adaptation in contemporary Mexico. CR 1996, ESTADO SONORA PROGRA 1996, JORNADA 0526, P1 1996, NACIONAL 0515 1996, SOURCEMEX, V7 *AGR TRAD OFF AM E, 1996, EC CONS MEX DROUGHT *AM EMB MEX CIT, 1997, MEX AGR SIT OUTL *I NAC EST, 1985, GEOGR INF EST HIST M, P337 *SERV MET NAC, 1976, NORM CLIM PER 1940 7 ACEVESNAVARRO E, 1985, P WAT WAT POL WORLD ALEMAN PAM, 1974, WORLD SURVEY CLIMATO, V11, P345 ALTIERI MA, 1987, HUM ECOL, V15, P189 APPENDINI K, 1992, MILPA TORTIBONOS RES APPENDINI K, 1994, FOOD POLICY, V19, P149 BAHRE CJ, 1978, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V68, P145 BALLING RC, 1988, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V13, P99 BELLON MR, 1991, HUM ECOL, V19, P389 BROWN RB, 1985, POLLEN RECORDS LATE, P71 BRUSH SB, 1988, HUM ECOL, V16, P307 BRYANT NA, 1990, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V17, P243 CASASUS C, 1994, J AM WATER WORKS ASS, V86, P69 CAVAZOS T, 1990, INT J CLIMATOL, V10, P377 CERVERA JSY, 1981, J HYDROL, V51, P41 CERVERA JSY, 1981, J HYDROL, V51, P43 CULBERT TP, 1973, CLASSIC MAYA COLLAPS, P11 CUMMINGS RG, 1972, WATER RESOURCE MANAG CUMMINGS RG, 1989, WATERWORKS IMPROVING DAHLIN BH, 1983, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V5, P245 DEEVEY ES, 1944, AM ANTIQUITY, V10, P135 DEJANVRY A, 1995, REFORMAS SECTOR AGR, P67 DIAZCISNEROS H, 1994, EC RESTRUCTURING RUR DILLEY FB, 1993, THESIS PENN STATE U, P220 DILLEY M, 1996, INT J CLIMATOL, V16, P1019 DOUGLAS A, 1996, MEXICAN TEMPERATURE EAKIN HC, 1997, THESIS U ARIZ, P156 FLORESCANO E, 1969, PRECIOS MAIZ CRISIS FLORESCANO E, 1980, NEXOS, V32, P9 GOMEZ MA, 1989, CIUDADES MEXICANAS U HODELL DA, 1995, NATURE, V375, P391 KIRKBY VT, 1973, MEMOIRS MUSEUM ANTHR, V1 LEES S, 1976, ECOLOGIST, V6, P20 LIVERMAN DM, 1989, UNPUB ANN M ASS AM G LIVERMAN DM, 1990, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V80, P49 LIVERMAN DM, 1991, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V1, P351 LIVERMAN DM, 1994, ENV RISKS HAZARDS, P326 LIVERMAN DM, 1995, UNPUB 1 OP C HUM DIM LIVERMAN DM, 1996, UNPUB PRELIMINARY AS LOREY DE, 1990, US MEXICO BORDER STA, P93 MANGELSDORF PC, 1974, CORN MATILDE PU, 1995, JORNADA 0529, P5 MEDELLINLEAL F, 1978, I INVESTIGACION ZONA METCALFE SE, 1987, GEOGR J, V153, P211 MICHAELS PJ, 1982, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V4, P255 MINNIS PE, 1991, J ETHNOBIOL, V11, P231 MORICHI M, 1995, DROUGHT BRINGS SEVER MURPHY AD, 1991, SOCIAL INEQUALITY OA MUSSET A, 1991, LEAU VIVE EAU MORTE NGUYEN D, 1979, ECON J, V89, P624 PATTERSON J, 1996, AGR SITUATION DROUGH QUINTANA VM, 1996, INFOSEL SCOTT SD, 1966, DENDROCHRONOLOGY MEX VELASCO E, 1996, EXCELSIOR PRIMERA PL, V4 WILKEN GC, 1987, GOOD FARMERS TRADITI, P176 ZENTENO RB, 1988, GRANDES PROBLEMAS CI NR 63 TC 5 J9 NATUR RESOUR J BP 99 EP 115 PY 1999 PD WIN VL 39 IS 1 GA 279LJ UT ISI:000085045000016 ER PT J AU Thomalla, F Schmuck, H TI 'We all knew that a cyclone was coming': Disaster preparedness and the cyclone of 1999 in Orissa, India SO DISASTERS LA English DT Article C1 Stockholm Environm Inst, S-10314 Stockholm, Sweden. RP Thomalla, F, Stockholm Environm Inst, Lilla Nygatan 1, S-10314 Stockholm, Sweden. AB Imagine that a cyclone is coming, but that those living in the affected areas do nothing or too little to protect themselves. This is precisely what happened in the coastal state of Orissa, India. Individuals and communities living in regions where natural hazards are a part of daily life develop strategies to cope with and adapt to the impacts of extreme events. In October 1999, a cyclone killed 10,000 people according to government statistics, however, the unofficial death toll is much higher. This article examines why such a large loss of life occurred and looks at measures taken since then to initiate comprehensive disaster-preparedness programmes and to construct more cyclone shelters. The role of both governmental organisations and NGOs in this is critically analysed. The good news is that, based on an assessment of disaster preparedness during a small cyclone in November 2002, it can be seen that at community-level awareness was high and that many of the lessons learnt in 1999 were put into practice. Less positive, however, is the finding that at the state level collaboration continues to be problematic. CR *ADB, 1994, CLIM CHANG AS IND CO *BMTPC, 1997, VULN ATL IND 1 3 *DEC, 2000, IND EV EXP DEC IND C *GIO, 2001, CENS IND *GIO, 2002, 10 5 YEAR PLAN 2002 *IFRC, 2000, WAK DEV IND OR CYCL *IFRC, 2002, WORLD DIS REP *IFRC, 2003, DIS PREP CLIM CHANG *IMM, 2001, LEARN LESS CYCL STUD *IPCC, 2001, 3 IPCC TAR *OSDMA, 2001, P WORKSH ORG OR STAT *OXF, 2000, IND DIS REP *PEP, 2002, POV CLIM CHANG RED V *SMRC, 1998, IMP TROP CYCL COAST *TERI, 2001, IND STAT ENV 2001 *UNEP, 2002, GLOB ENV OUTL, V3 *UNWFP, 2000, FOOD INS ATL OR VULN ALI A, 1997, MAUSAM, V48, P305 ANDYOPADHYAY SK, 1999, UN FAO MISS REP AGR BEHERA A, 2002, GOV NGO COLL DIS RED BHASKAR R, 1997, MAUSAM, V48, P113 BHATT JR, 2002, CLIMATE CHANGE INDIA BLAIKIE PM, 1994, RISK NATURAL HAZARDS, V1, P1 CHOWDHURY AMR, 1993, DISASTERS, V17, P291 DAS K, 2002, EC POLITICAL WE 1130, P4784 DAS PK, 1991, P INDIAN AS-EARTH, V100, P177 DASH B, 2002, EC POLITICAL WE 1019, P4270 DASH B, 2002, THESIS JAWARAHAL NEH EMMANUEL KA, 1988, NATURE, V326, P483 ERN C, 1993, B WORLD HEALTH ORGAN, V71, P73 HOUGHTON JT, 1990, CLIMATE CHANGE IPCC KUMAR KR, 2002, CLIMATE CHANGE INDIA LONGSHORE D, 1998, ENCY HURRICANES TYPH NICHOLLS RJ, 1995, J GLOBAL ENV ENG, V1, P137 PACHAURI RK, 1992, REGIONS GLOBAL WARMI PALAKUDIYIL T, 2003, FACING STORM LOCAL C ROY BC, 2002, 8 C PART UN FRAM CON SHUKLA PR, 2002, CLIMATE CHANGE INDIA TWIGG J, 2003, EARLY WARNING SYSTEM VENGHAUS G, 2000, MAST CONT PLAN OR DI NR 40 TC 0 J9 DISASTERS BP 373 EP 387 PY 2004 PD DEC VL 28 IS 4 GA 878ZQ UT ISI:000225686600002 ER PT J AU Izaurralde, RC Thomson, AM Rosenberg, NJ Brown, RA TI Climate change impacts for the conterminous USA: An integrated assessment - Part 6. Distribution and productivity of unmanaged ecosystems SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 Joint Global Change Res Inst, College Pk, MD 20740 USA. Independent Project Anal, Reston, VA 20190 USA. RP Izaurralde, RC, Joint Global Change Res Inst, 8400 Baltimore Ave,Suite 201, College Pk, MD 20740 USA. AB Human activities have altered the distribution and quality of terrestrial ecosystems. Future demands for goods and services from terrestrial ecosystems will occur in a world experiencing human-induced climate change. In this study, we characterize the range in response of unmanaged ecosystems in the conterminous U.S. to 12 climate change scenarios. We obtained this response by simulating the climatically induced shifts in net primary productivity and geographical distribution of major biomes in the conterminous U.S. with the BIOME 3 model. BIOME 3 captured well the potential distribution of major biomes across the U.S. under baseline (current) climate. BIOME 3 also reproduced the general trends of observed net primary production (NPP) acceptably. The NPP projections were reasonable for forests, but not for grasslands where the simulated values were always greater than those observed. Changes in NPP would be most severe under the BMRC climate change scenario in which severe changes in regional temperatures are projected. Under the UIUC and UIUC + Sulfate scenarios, NPP generally increases, especially in the West where increases in precipitation are projected to be greatest. A CO2-fertilization effect either amplified increases or alleviated losses in modeled NPP. Changes in NPP were also associated with changes in the geographic distribution of major biomes. Temperate/boreal mixed forests would cover less land in the U.S. under most of the climate change scenarios examined. Conversely, the temperate conifer and temperate deciduous forests would increase in areal extent under the UIUC and UIUC + Sulfate scenarios. The Arid Shrubland/Steppe would spread significantly across the southwest U.S. under the BMRC scenario. A map overlay of the simulated regions that would lose or gain capacity to produce corn and wheat on top of the projected distribution of natural ecosystems under the BMRC and UIUC scenarios (Global mean temperature increase of +2.5 degrees C, no CO2 effect) helped identify areas where natural and managed ecosystems could contract or expand. The methods and models employed here are useful in identifying; (a) the range in response of unmanaged ecosystem in the U.S. to climate change and (b) the areas of the country where, for a particular scenario of climate change, land cover changes would be most likely. CR *IPCC, 2000, LAND US LAND US CHAN ARNOLD JG, 1999, J AM WATER RESOUR AS, V35, P1037 BEERLING DJ, 2001, VEGETATION TERRESTRI DAVIS MB, 2001, SCIENCE, V292, P673 DRAKE BG, 1996, PLANT SOIL, V187, P111 ETTERSON JR, 2001, SCIENCE, V294, P151 HAXELTINE A, 1996, GLOBAL BIOGEOCHEM CY, V10, P693 HAXELTINE A, 1996, THESIS LUND U LUND S HOLDRIDGE LR, 1967, LIFE ZONE ECOLOGY HOUGHTON RA, 1999, TELLUS B, V51, P298 JOLLY D, 1997, SCIENCE, V276, P786 KIMBALL BA, 1983, AGRON J, V75, P779 KIMBALL BA, 1995, GLOB CHANGE BIOL, V1, P429 KUCHLER AW, 1964, AM GEOGRAPHIC SOC SP, V36 LAL R, 1995, ADV SOIL SCI, P131 LEEMANS R, 1994, WATER AIR SOIL POLL, V76, P133 LEEMANS R, 1996, SCOPE 56 GLOBAL CHAN, P413 LOVELAND TR, 1991, PHOTOGRAMM ENG REM S, V57, P1453 LUGO AE, 1999, J BIOGEOGR, V26, P1025 MAUNEY JR, 1994, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V70, P49 MELILLO JM, 1995, GLOBAL BIOGEOCHEM CY, V9, P407 MIDDLETON N, 1997, WORLD ATLAS DESERTIF NEILSON RP, 1995, ECOL APPL, V5, P362 OECHEL WC, 1994, NATURE, V371, P500 OLSON RJ, 2001, NPP MULTIBIOME GLOBA OREN R, 2001, NATURE, V411, P469 PRENTICE IC, 1992, J BIOGEOGR, V19, P117 ROGERS HH, 1996, PLANT SOIL, V187, P229 SMITH SD, 2000, NATURE, V408, P79 WATSON RT, 1998, REGIONAL IMPACTS CLI, V1, P1 WILLIAMS JR, 1995, COMPUTER MODELS WATE, P909 WILLIAMS JW, 1998, QUATERNARY SCI REV, V17, P607 WILLIAMS JW, 2000, J BIOGEOGR, V27, P585 ZHENG DL, 2001, NPP MULTIBIOME GRIDD NR 34 TC 1 J9 CLIMATIC CHANGE BP 107 EP 126 PY 2005 PD MAR VL 69 IS 1 GA 910UF UT ISI:000227957000007 ER PT J AU Johnson, WC Millett, BV Gilmanov, T Voldseth, RA Guntenspergen, GR Naugle, DE TI Vulnerability of northern prairie wetlands to climate change SO BIOSCIENCE LA English DT Article C1 S Dakota State Univ, Dept Hort Forestry Landscape & Pk, Brookings, SD 57007 USA. S Dakota State Univ, Dept Geog, Brookings, SD 57007 USA. S Dakota State Univ, Dept Biol & Microbiol, Brookings, SD 57007 USA. US Forest Serv, USDA, N Cent Forest Expt Stn, Grand Rapids, MN 55774 USA. US Geol Survey, Patuxent Wildlife Res Ctr, Laurel, MD 20708 USA. Univ Montana, Missoula, MT 59812 USA. RP Johnson, WC, S Dakota State Univ, Dept Hort Forestry Landscape & Pk, Brookings, SD 57007 USA. AB The prairie pothole region (PPR) lies in the heart of North America and contains millions of glacially formed, depressional wetlands embedded in a landscape matrix of natural grassland and agriculture. These wetlands provide valuable ecosystem services and produce 50% to 80% of the continent's ducks. We explored the broad spatial and temporal patterns across the PPR between climate and wetland water levels and vegetation by applying a wetland simulation model (WETSIM) to 18 stations with 95-year weather records. Simulations suggest that the most productive habitat for breeding waterfowl would shift under a drier climate from the center of the PPR (the Dakotas and southeastern Saskatchewan) to the wetter eastern and northern fringes, areas currently less productive or where most wetlands have been drained. Unless these wetlands are protected and restored, there is little insurance for waterfowl against future climate warming. WETSIM can assist wetland managers in allocating restoration dollars in an uncertain climate future. CR *NAT ASS SYNTH TEA, 2000, CLIM CHANG IMP US PO ALBERTSON FW, 1942, ECOL MONOGR, V12, P23 ANDERSON MG, 2001, T N AM WILDL NAT RES, V66, P300 AUSTIN JE, 2002, WATERBIRDS, V25, P465 HARGREAVES GH, 1994, J IRRIG DRAIN E-ASCE, V120, P1132 HOEKMAN ST, 2002, J WILDLIFE MANAGE, V66, P883 HOUGHTON JT, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 JOHNSON WC, 2004, WETLANDS, V24, P385 LARSON DL, 1995, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V30, P169 OJIMA DS, 2002, PREPARING CHANGING C OMERNIK JM, 1995, BIOL ASSESSMENT CRIT, P49 POIANI KA, 1991, BIOSCIENCE, V41, P611 POIANI KA, 1996, LIMNOL OCEANOGR, V41, P871 SHAPLEY MD, 2005, HOLOCENE, V15, P29 SHARPLEY AN, 1990, USDA TECHNICAL B, V1768 SORENSON LG, 1998, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V40, P343 TINER RW, 2003, WETLANDS, V23, P494 VANDERVALK AG, 1978, ECOLOGY, V59, P322 VANDERVALK AG, 1989, NO PRAIRIE WETLANDS VILJUGREIN H, 2005, ECOLOGY, V86, P245 WELLER MW, 1965, 43 IOW STAT U AGR HO WILLIAMS JR, 1990, USDA TECHNICAL B, V1768 WINTER TC, 1998, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V40, P189 WINTER TC, 2000, J AM WATER RESOUR AS, V36, P305 WINTER TC, 2003, 1675 US GEOL SURV US WOODHOUSE CA, 1998, B AM METEOROL SOC, V79, P2693 NR 26 TC 1 J9 BIOSCIENCE BP 863 EP 872 PY 2005 PD OCT VL 55 IS 10 GA 973HV UT ISI:000232514400012 ER PT J AU Milestad, R Hadatsch, S TI Organic farming and social-ecological resilience: the alpine valleys of Solktaler, Austria SO CONSERVATION ECOLOGY LA English DT Article C1 Swedish Univ Agr Sci, S-75007 Uppsala, Sweden. RP Milestad, R, Swedish Univ Agr Sci, S-75007 Uppsala, Sweden. AB Farming in the Austrian Alps is small in scale and involves a high degree of manual labor. In the face of structural changes in agriculture, alpine farms are finding it increasingly difficult to remain economically viable. Organic farming presents a promising alternative for alpine farmers because it receives considerable financial support under the Common Agricultural Policy of the European Union. Recent years have seen an increase in the number of organic farms in Austria in general, and in alpine areas in particular. Using data from an empirical study carried out in the alpine area of Solktaler, Austria, this paper examines the issues of how closely the regulations and principles of organic farming match farmers' perspectives on sustainable agriculture and whether or not organic farming is capable of building social-ecological resilience for local farms. Qualitative interviews and a series of workshops were used to learn about farmers' "desired system state" with regard to their region, disturbances to this system, and their perspectives on organic farming. The desired system in Solktaler as formulated by the farmers depicts a vivid farming community that manages a diverse traditional agricultural landscape and performs a number of ecological services. The desired system and the principles of organic farming have several aspects in common, and many management practices and features of the social system support social-ecological resilience. The vulnerability of farms increases, however, when farmers must deal with structural changes in agriculture, the erosion of traditional ecological knowledge, and societal transformation. In conclusion, organic farming is a tool that can be used to build social-ecological resilience for Solktaler farms, because it secures economic funding for the area and makes it possible to sustain environmentally benign practices. What remains is the question of whether the farming community is capable of reorganizing the social system under the pressures of modernization so that the desired system state can be reached. 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RP Vasquez-Leon, M, Univ Arizona, Bur Appl Res Anthorpol, Anthropol Room 316,POB 210030, Tucson, AZ 85721 USA. AB Social science research on climate vulnerability tends to be limited to case studies in either industrial countries or in less-developed nations. The empirical study presented here takes a comparative approach across this divide by examining rural livelihoods on both sides of the United States-Mexico border. Looking beyond single agricultural systems, crossing borders and listening to rural producers in this semi-arid environment offers a more complete picture of how differences in access to resources, state involvement, class and ethnicity result in drastically different vulnerabilities within a similar biophysical context. We distinguish between coping and buffering in examining adaptation strategies and place an emphasis on the historical context of vulnerability as a dynamic social process with socioeconomic and environmental consequences. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *AR DEP WAT RES, 1994, AR WAT RES HYDR SUMM, V2 *INEGI, 1994, DAT EJ COM AGR 11 CE *INEGI, 1996, SON DAT EJ COM AGR 1 *INEGI, 2000, 12 CENS GEN POBL VIV *ISPE, 1999, PREP CHANG CLIM POT *MUN AL, 1989, PLAN DEES MUN 1988 1 *NASS, 1997, AR CENS UAGR USDA *SAGAR, 1997, UNPUB *US CENS BUR, 2000, GAZ COUNT SUBD *US CENS BUR, 2000, GAZ PLAC *USDA, 1997, NAT AGR STAT SERV FA ADGER N, 2003, GLOB ENV CHANG FOOD ADGER WN, 1999, MITIGATION ADAPTATIO, V4, P252 AYER H, 2001, ARIZONA WATER USE AR BAHRE CJ, 1991, LEGACY CHANGE HIST BAHRE CJ, 1996, J SW, V38, P1 BAILEY LR, 1994, WELL ALL WEAR SILKS BLAIKIE PM, 1994, RISK NATURAL HAZARDS, V1, P1 BOHLE HG, 1994, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V4, P37 BROOKS E, 1995, REGIONS RISK COMP TH, P255 BRYANT CR, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P181 CAMPBELL DJ, 1999, HUM ECOL, V27, P377 CHAVEZ OE, 1999, NAT RESOUR J, V39, P35 CHIOTTI QP, 1997, AGR RESTRUCTURING SU CLARK L, 1997, AGR DEV RESOURCE MAN, P11 CONLEY J, 1999, CLIMAS REPORT SERIES CORBETT J, 1988, WORLD DEV, V16, P1099 DAVIES S, 1996, ADAPTABLE LIVELIHOOD EAKIN H, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P19 ERICKSON K, 1997, DOING TEAM ETHNOGRAP FINAN TJ, 2000, CLIMAS REPORT SERIES FINAN TJ, 2002, CLIMATE RES, V21, P299 GRANJON D, 1999, ENQUETES RESULTATS A HAMMER GL, 2000, APPL SEASONAL CLIMAT HEWITT K, 1983, INTERPRETATIONS CALA HUSAIN A, 2000, HISPANIC FARMERS SUE ILBERY B, 1997, AGR RESTRUCTURING SU JOHNSON D, 1992, ECOLOGIA RECURSOS NA KANE SM, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P1 KASPERSON JX, 1995, REGIONS RISK, V1, P1 KATES RW, 1985, CLIMATE IMPACT ASSES, P151 KATES RW, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P5 KINSEY B, 1998, WORLD DEV, V26, P89 LIVERMAN DM, 1999, NAT RESOUR J, V39, P99 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 MERIDETH R, 2001, PRIMER CLIMATIC VARI MEZEHAUSKEN E, 2000, MIGRATION ADAPTATION, V5, P379 MOREHOUSE BJ, 2000, NAT RESOUR J, V40, P783 NELSON DR, 2000, PRACTICING ANTHR, V22, P6 NORBERGBOHM V, 2001, GLOBAL ENV RISK, P55 PENA EM, 1985, HIST CONT SONORA 19, P541 SANDERSON SE, 1981, AGRARIAN POPULISM ME SCHULTZ VB, 1980, SW TOWN STORY WILLCO SHERIDAN TE, 1996, ARIZONA HIST SHERIDAN TE, 2001, HUM ORGAN, V60, P141 SMIT B, 1999, MITIGATION ADAPTATIO, V4, P199 SMIT B, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P223 SMITHERS J, 1997, AGR RESTRUCTURING SU, P167 SPICER EH, 1962, CYCLES CONQUEST IMPA STERN PC, 1999, MAKING CLIMATE FORES TOL RSJ, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE EXTRE, P17 VARLEY A, 1994, DISASTERS DEV ENV VASQUEZLEON M, IN PRESS POLITICAL E VASQUEZLEON M, 2002, CLIMAS REPORT SERIES VOSS SF, 1982, PERIPHERY 19 CENTURY WAGONER JJ, 1952, CLIMATE IND S ARIZON, V20 WARRICK RA, 1983, INTERPRETATIONS CALA, P67 WATSON RT, 1998, REGIONAL IMPACTS CLI, V1, P1 WEST RC, 1993, SONORA ITS GEOGRAPHI ZAMACONA GG, 1990, COLECCION EL TEJABAN, V3 NR 70 TC 1 J9 GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANGE BP 159 EP 173 PY 2003 PD OCT VL 13 IS 3 GA 725ND UT ISI:000185548500002 ER PT J AU Nicholls, RJ Mimura, N TI Regional issues raised by sea-level rise and their policy implications SO CLIMATE RESEARCH LA English DT Article C1 Middlesex Univ, Enfield EN3 4SF, Middx, England. Ibaraki Univ, Ctr Water Environm Studies, Hitachi, Ibaraki 316, Japan. RP Nicholls, RJ, Middlesex Univ, Enfield EN3 4SF, Middx, England. AB Global sea levels are rising and this change is expected to accelerate in the coming century due to anthropogenic global warming. Any rise in sea level promotes land loss, increased flooding and salinisation. The impacts of and possible responses to sea-level rise vary at the local and regional scale due to variation in local and regional factors. Policy responses to the human-enhanced greenhouse effect need to address these different dimensions of climate change, including the regional scale. Based on global reviews and analyses of relative vulnerability, 4 contrasting regions are selected and examined in more detail using local and national assessments. These regions are (1) Europe, (2) West Africa, (3) South, South-East and East Asia and (4) the Pacific Small Islands. Some potential impacts of sea-level rise are found to have strong regional dimensions and regional cooperation to foster mitigation approaches (to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and, hence, the magnitude of climate change) and adaptive solutions to climate change impacts would be beneficial. For instance, in South, South-East and East Asia subsiding megacities and questions about long-term deltaic management are common and challenging issues. The debate on mitigation and stabilisation of greenhouse forcing also requires information on regional impacts of different emission pathways. These results will be provided by integrated models, calibrated against national assessments. 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RP Reynolds, MP, CIMMYT, Int Apdo Postal 6-641, Mexico City 06600, DF, Mexico. AB Despite the successes of the Green Revolution, about a billion people are still undernourished and food security in the developing world faces new challenges in terms of population growth, reduced water resources, climate change and decreased public sector investment. It is also becoming widely recognized that poverty is a cause of environmental degradation, conflict and civil unrest. Internationally coordinated agricultural research can play a significant role in improving food security by deploying promising new technologies as well as adapting those with well-established impact. In addition to the genetic challenges of crop improvement, agriculturalists must also embrace the problems associated with a highly heterogeneous and unpredictable environment. Not only are new genetic tools becoming more accessible, but a new generation of quantitative tools are available to enable better definition of agro-ecosystems, of cultivar by environment interactions, and of socioeconomic issues, while satellite imagery can help predict crop yields on large scales. Identifying areas of low genetic diversity - for example as found in large tracts of South Asia - is an important aspect of reducing vulnerability to disease epidemics. Global strategies for incorporating durable disease resistance genes into a wider genetic background, as well as participatory approaches that deliver a fuller range of options to farmers, are being implemented to increase cultivar diversity. The unpredictable effects of environment on productivity can be buffered somewhat by crop management practices that maintain healthy soils, while reversing the consequences of rapid agricultural intensification on soil degradation. Conservation agriculture is an alternative strategy that is especially pertinent for resource-poor farmers. The potential synergy between genetic improvement and innovative crop management practices has been referred to as the Doubly Green Revolution. The unique benefits and efficiency of the international collaborative platform are indisputable when considering the duplications that otherwise would have been required to achieve the same impacts through unilateral or even bilateral programmes. Furthermore, while the West takes for granted public support for crucial economic and social issues, this is not the case in a number of less-developed countries where the activities of International Agricultural Research Centres (IARCs) and other development assistance organizations can provide continuity in agricultural research and infrastructure. 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Zhang, ZK TI Pollen evidence of early human activites in Eirhai basin, Yunnan Province SO CHINESE SCIENCE BULLETIN LA English DT Article C1 Chinese Acad Sci, Nanjing Inst Geog & Limnol, Nanjing 210008, Peoples R China. Univ Exeter, Dept Geog, Exeter EX4 4RJ, Devon, England. CAGS, Inst Hydrogeol & Engn Geol, Shijiazhuang 050061, Peoples R China. Nanjing Univ, Dept Urban & Resource Sci, Nanjing 210093, Peoples R China. RP Yang, XD, Chinese Acad Sci, Nanjing Inst Geog & Limnol, Nanjing 210008, Peoples R China. AB The evidence of human activities around Erhai Lake catchment was revealed by pollen records from a sediment core in the lake, northwest Yunnan Province. The chronologic sequence based on AMS C-14 data made it possible for pollen results to compare with archaeological records and historical documents. The preliminary deforestation started from the selective clearance at about 5500 C-14 a BP, marked by the loss of vertically distributed montane forest and the expansion of second pine woodland across the catchment. The deforestation resulted in the increase of surface runoff and the enhanced erosion in the catchment. The increased herbs of pasture and crop suggested the primitive agriculture and stockbreeding in study region. With the limited human activity, as well as the suitable climatic condition, second pine forest expanded quickly, resulting in the weakened soil erosion around the basin. The strong forest clearance inferred from pollen occurred since 2160 14 C a BP, paralleling to the first dense immigration of population, when Yeyu County was first set up around west coast of Erhai Lake, documented in historic record. The development of agriculture led to the steady enhancement of soil erosion from farming land, increasing the input of fine materials and nutrients to the lake. Moreover, the serious deforestation by human activity stressed the vulnerability in ecosystem of the landscape. The time of primary anthropologic impact recorded from pollen is earlier than that of the oldest archaeological record by 1500 a (C-14 year). 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Univ Alberta, Dept Rural Econ, Edmonton, AB T6G 2H1, Canada. Univ Alberta, Dept Renewable Resources, Edmonton, AB T6G 2H1, Canada. RP Frickel, S, Tulane Univ, Dept Sociol, 220 Newcomb Hall, New Orleans, LA 70118 USA. AB This article explores the potential for nation-states to become substantial contributors to sustainability governance. This potential resides in the ability of nation-states to make environmental protection a basic goal, in part by committing institutional resources toward the formation and implementation of substantive actions perceived necessary for long-term environmental sustainability. Existing research suggests that nation-states undertake environmental action in order to maintain legitimacy in the face of political pressure. While the maintenance of legitimacy is necessary, we argue that a substantive state role in sustainability governance is also dependent upon the rationalization of state environmental roles. Further, rationalization can be fostered through the enrichment of embedded state-societal networks with two key actors in civil society: environmental justice movements and environmental knowledge professionals. This article develops a conceptual framework that grounds sustainability efforts in rationalization processes and examines the synergistic potential for these two social actors to help build states that institute fundamental environmental reform. CR *I MED COMM ENV JU, 1999, ENV JUST RES ED HLTH *IPCC, 2001, CLIM CHANG 2001 *NAT COUNC SCI ENV, 2000, STRAT PLAN *NAT SCI FDN, 2002, SCI ENG IND AGARWAL A, 1991, GLOBAL WARMING UNEQU BECK U, 1995, ECOLOGICAL POLITICS BECK U, 1999, WORLD RISK SOC BELL MM, 1998, INTRO ENV SOCIOLOGY BLOCK F, 1987, REVISING STATE THEOR BROWN KS, 2000, SCIENCE, V287, P1192 BROWN P, 2000, ILLNESS ENV READER C, P9 BRULLE RJ, 2000, AGENCY DEMOCRACY NAT BULLARD RD, 1993, CONFRONTING ENV RACI BUNKER SG, 1996, SOC NATUR RESOUR, V9, P419 BUTTEL FH, 1998, ORG ENV, V11, P261 BUTTEL FH, 2000, AM SOCIOL REV, V65, P117 BUTTEL FH, 2000, ENV GLOBAL MODERNITY, P17 CAMPBELL JL, 1988, COLLAPSE IND NUCL PO CANIGLIA BS, 2001, MOBILIZATION, V6, P37 CAPEK SM, 1993, SOC PROBL, V40, P5 CHANG J, 2000, COLOR LINES RACE CUL, V3 COLE LW, 2001, GROUND ENV RACISM RA DAVIDSON DJ, IN PRESS ORG ENV EDELMAN M, 1964, SYMBOLIC USES POLITI EVANS P, 1996, WORLD DEV, V24, P1119 EVANS PB, 1995, EMBEDDED AUTONOMY ST FRANK DJ, 2000, AM SOCIOL REV, V65, P96 FREUDENBURG WR, 1994, SOC PROBL, V41, P214 FREY RS, 1998, SPACE TRANSPORTATION, P84 FRICKEL S, IN PRESS SOC NATURAL GOULD KA, 1996, LOCAL ENV STRUGGLES GRAMLING R, 1997, CURR SOCIOL, V45, P41 GUSTON DH, 2000, SCI POLITICS ASSURIN HAAS PM, 1994, COMPLEX COOPERATION HABERMAS J, 1975, LEGITIMATION CRISIS HAJER M, 1996, RISK ENV MODERNITY N, P246 HARRIS PG, 2001, ENV INT RELATIONS US HICKS A, 1993, AM J SOCIOL, V99, P668 HOBERG G, 1992, PLURALISM DESIGN ENV HUBER J, 1985, RAINBOW SOC ECOLOGY IRWIN A, 1995, CITIZEN SCI STUDY PE JASANOFF S, 1993, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V3, P32 JASANOFF S, 1995, HDB SCI TECHNOLOGY S KAISER J, 2000, SCIENCE, V287, P1188 KECK ME, 1998, ACTIVISTS BORDERS AD KROLLSMITH S, 1997, BODIES PROTEST ENV E LEE C, 2002, ENVIRON HEALTH PE S2, V110, P141 LIPSCHUTZ RD, 1996, GLOBAL CIVIL SOC GLO LOVINS A, 1991, RESOURCES ENV POPULA, P95 MANN H, 1999, NAFTAS, CH11 MARTINEZALIER J, 2000, HARVARD SEMINAR ENV MCCRIGHT AM, 2000, SOC PROBL, V47, P499 MEYER JW, 1997, INT ORGAN, V51, P623 MIGDAL JS, 1994, STATE POWER SOCIAL F MILLER CA, 2001, CHANGING ATMOSPHERE, P1 MILLS CW, 1958, M WEBER MOL A, 2000, ENVIRON POLIT, V9, P3 MOLOTCH H, 1970, SOCIOL INQ, V40, P131 MOORE K, IN PRESS DISRUPTING MOORE K, 1996, AM J SOCIOL, V101, P1592 MURPHY J, 2000, GEOFORUM, V31, P1 OCONNOR J, 1994, IS CAPITALISM SUSTAI, P152 PEET R, 1996, LIBERATION ECOLOGIES QUADAGNO J, 1987, ANNU REV SOCIOL, V13, P109 REDCLIFT M, 1996, WASTED ROBERTS JT, 2001, CHRONICLES ENV JUSTI ROOTES C, 1999, INNOVATION EUROPEAN, V12, P155 SACHS W, 1997, INT HDB ENV SOCIOLOG, P71 SAREWITZ D, 2000, SUNY SCI T, P87 SCARCE R, 2000, FISH BUSINESS SALMON SCHLOSBERG D, 1997, ECOLOGICAL COMMUNITY, P270 SCHLOSBERG D, 1999, ENVIRON POLIT, V8, P122 SHIVA V, 2000, GLOBAL CAPITALISM, P112 SHRUM W, 1995, HDB SCI TECHNOLOGY S, P627 SKOWRONEK S, 1982, BUILDING NEW AM STAT SONNENFELD DA, 2002, AM BEHAV SCI, P45 SZASZ A, 1994, ECOPOPULISM TOXIC WA TAYLOR DE, 2000, AM BEHAV SCI, V43, P508 TAYLOR PJ, 1997, CHANGING LIFE GENOME, P149 TESH SN, 2000, UNCERTAIN HAZARDS EN THOMAS GM, 1984, ANNU REV SOCIOL, V10, P461 TICKNER JA, 1999, PRECAUTIONARY PRINCI TILLY C, 1975, FORMATION NATL STATE TURNER BL, 1990, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V1, P14 UYEKI ES, 2000, AM BEHAV SCI, V43, P646 VANDERHEIJDEN HA, 1999, ENV MOVEMENTS LOCAL, P199 WEIDNER H, 2002, AM BEHAV SCI, V45, P1340 WEINTHAL E, 2002, STATE MAKING ENV COO WEISS L, 1997, NEW LEFT REV SEP, P3 WHEELER D, 2000, GREENING IND NEW ROL WILDS LJ, 1990, UNDERSTANDING WHO WI YEARLEY S, 1996, SOCIOLOGY ENV GLOBAL YEARLEY S, 1997, INT HDB ENV SOCIOLOG, P277 YOUNG O, 1981, NATURAL RESOURCES ST NR 94 TC 1 J9 INT SOCIOL BP 89 EP 110 PY 2004 PD MAR VL 19 IS 1 GA 802OM UT ISI:000220172800005 ER PT J AU Bouwer, LM Aerts, JCJH TI Financing climate change adaptation SO DISASTERS LA English DT Article C1 Vrije Univ Amsterdam, Inst Environm Studies, Fac Earth & Life Sci, Amsterdam, Netherlands. RP Bouwer, LM, Boelelaan 1087, NL-1081 HV Amsterdam, Netherlands. AB This paper examines the topic of financing adaptation in future climate change policies. A major question is whether adaptation in developing countries should be financed under the 1992 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), or whether funding should come from other sources. We present an overview of financial resources and propose the employment of a two-track approach: one track that attempts to secure climate change adaptation funding under the UNFCCC; and a second track that improves mainstreaming of climate risk management in development efforts. Developed countries would need to demonstrate much greater commitment to the funding of adaptation measures if the UNFCCC were to cover a substantial part of the costs. The mainstreaming of climate change adaptation could follow a risk management path, particularly in relation to disaster risk reduction. 'Climate-proofing' of development projects that currently do not consider climate and weather risks could improve their sustainability. CR *ADB, 2003, POV CLIM CHANG RED V *EC, 2002, EUR COMM RESP FLOOD *EC, 2003, CLIM CHANG CONT DEV *GEF, 2003, PROP GEF APPR AD CLI *GEF, 2004, GEF ASS ADDR AD *IFRC, 2002, WORLD DIS REP 2002 F *WORLD BANK, 2001, WORLD DEV REP 2000 2 AERTS JCJ, 2004, CLIMATE CHANGE CONTR BENSON C, 2004, HUMANITARIAN EXHANGE, P44 BENSON C, 2004, MEASURING MITIGATION BERGKAMP G, 1999, WETLANDS CLIMATE CHA BOUWER LM, 2004, CLIMATE OPTIONS BROA, P173 BOUWER LM, 2005, WATER SCI TECHNOL, V51, P89 BURTON I, 2000, CLIMATE CHANGE DEV, P153 BURTON I, 2004, LOOK BEFORE LEAP RIS FOX IB, 2003, REDUCING VULNERABILI GUPTA J, 2003, W0309 U AMST I ENV S HOFF H, 2003, RISK MANAGEMENT WATE HOFF H, 2005, VIERTELJAHRSHEFTE WI, V74, P196 HUQ S, 2002, CLIM POLICY, V2, P243 HUQ S, 2003, FUNDING ADAPTATION C HUQ S, 2003, MAINSTREAMING ADAPTA HUQ S, 2004, IDS BULL-I DEV STUD, V35, P15 KLEIN RJT, 2001, ADAPTATION CLIMATE C LIM B, 2004, USERS GUIDEBOOK ADAP MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 MIAMIDIAN E, 2005, DISASTER RISK MANAGE, V10 MIRZA MMQ, 2003, CLIM POLICY, V3, P233 RADKA M, 2000, METHODOLOGICAL TECHN ROJAS A, 2004, UNPUB LINKING ADAPTA ROSA LP, 2004, ENERG POLICY, V32, P1499 SMIT B, 1999, MITIGATION ADAPTATIO, V4, P199 SPERLING F, 2005, DISASTER RISK MANAGE TOL RSJ, 1998, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V8, P109 VANAALST M, 2004, PREPAREDNESS CLIMATE VELLINGA P, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, P417 NR 36 TC 2 J9 DISASTERS BP 49 EP 63 PY 2006 PD MAR VL 30 IS 1 GA 017LA UT ISI:000235693900005 ER PT J AU Corfee-Morlot, J Hohne, N TI Climate change: long-term targets and short-term commitments SO GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS LA English DT Article C1 ECOFYS Energy & Environm, D-50933 Cologne, Germany. OECD Environm Directorate, F-75775 Paris 16, France. RP Hohne, N, ECOFYS Energy & Environm, Eupener Str 59, D-50933 Cologne, Germany. AB International negotiations under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change could take several different approaches to advance future mitigation commitments. Options range from trying to reach consensus on specific long-term atmospheric concentration targets (e.g. 550 ppmv) to simply ignoring this contentious issue and focusing instead on what can be done in the nearer term. This paper argues for a strategy that lies between these two extremes. Internationally agreed threshold levels for certain categories of impacts or of risks posed by climate change could be translated into acceptable levels of atmospheric concentrations. This could help to establish a range of upper limits for global emissions in the medium term that could set the ambition level for negotiations on expanded GHG mitigation commitments. The paper thus considers how physical and socio-economic indicators of climate change impacts might be used to guide the setting of such targets. In an effort to explore the feasibility and implications of low levels of stabilisation, it also quantifies an intermediate global emission target for 2020 that keeps open the option to stabilise at 450 ppmv CO2 = If new efforts to reduce emissions are not forthcoming (e.g. the Kyoto Protocol or similar mitigation efforts fail), there is a significant chance that the option of 450 ppmv CO2 is out of reach as of 2020. Regardless of the preferred approach to shaping new international commitments on climate change, progress will require improved information on the avoided impacts climate change at different levels of mitigation and careful assessment of mitigation costs. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *EDGAR, 2001, EM DAT GLOB ATM RES *IPCC, 1996, UN FRAM CONV CLIM CH *IPCC, 2000, SPEC REP IPCC WORK G MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 *IPCC, 2001, CLIM CHANG 2001 MIT *IPCC, 2001, CLIM CHANG 2001 SCI *IPCC, 2001, CLIM CHANG 2001 SYNT *IPCC, 2002, IPCC WORKSH CHANG EX *MET UK, 2002, STAB COMM FUT CLIM C *OECD, 1999, AC CLIM CHANG *OECD, 2001, OECD ENV OUTL *OECD, 2001, OECD ENV STRAT 1 DEC *UNFCCC, 1992, UN FRAM CONV CLIM CH AGRAWALA S, 1999, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V9, P157 AGRAWALA, 2003, IN PRESS MAINSTREAMI AILEY RB, 2003, SCIENCE, V299, P2005 ARNELL NW, 2002, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V53, P413 ARROW T, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995 AZAR C, 1997, SCIENCE, V276, P1819 AZAR C, 1998, ENVIRON RESOUR ECON, V11, P301 AZAR C, 2002, ECOL ECON, V42, P73 BARANZINI A, 2003, ENERG POLICY, V31, P691 BARNETT J, 2003, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V13, P7 BEG N, 2002, CLIM POLICY, V2, P129 BERK M, 2001, KEEPING OUR DIFFEREN BERK MM, 2001, CLIMATE POLICY, V3 BURNIAUX JM, 2000, 270 OECD EC DEP CALDEIRA K, 2003, SCIENCE, V299, P2052 CASPARY G, 2001, 111 OECD DEV CTR CASPARY G, 2002, 21 OECD DEV CTR COX PM, 2000, NATURE, V408, P184 CUBASCH U, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, P525 DAVIS D, 2000, ANCILLARY BENEFITS C DEPLEDGE J, 2000, FCCCTP20002 DOWNING TE, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE VULNE EASTERLING DR, 2000, SCIENCE, V289, P2071 ETTERSON JR, 2001, SCIENCE, V294, P151 FANKHAUSER S, 1997, ENVIRON RESOUR ECON, V10, P249 GRUBB M, 1999, KYOTO PROTOCOL GUIDE GUPTA S, 2003, OECD GLOB FOR SUST D HANEMANN WM, 2003, IN PRESS OECD PROJ B HOHNE N, 2003, 20141255 GERM FED EN HOURCADE JC, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 JACOBY H, 1998, EC MODELLING CLIMATE JACOBY P, 2003, ENVEPOCGSP20032FINAL JAEGER CC, 1998, ENVIRON MODEL ASSESS, V3, P211 JONES R, 2003, OECD PROJ BEN CLIM P JONES RN, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P403 JONES RN, 2001, NAT HAZARDS, V23, P197 LEEMANS R, 2003, ENVEPOCGSP20035FINAL LEIMBACH M, 2002, ENERG POLICY, V31, P1033 MASTRANDREA M, 2001, CLIM POLICY, V1, P433 MILLY PCD, 2002, NATURE, V415, P514 MITCHELL JFB, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 MORITA, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 MORLOT C, 2003, OECD WORKSH BEN CLIM MOSS R, UNPUB UNCERTAINTIES NARAIN U, 2000, 843 U CAL DEP AGR RE NEUMAYER E, 1999, ENERG POLICY, V27, P33 NICHOLLS RJ, 2002, ISS ENVIR SCI TECHN, V17, P83 NICHOLLS RJ, 2003, ENVEPOCGSP20039FINAL NORDHAUS WD, 2000, WARMING WORLD EC MOD ONEILL BC, 2002, SCIENCE, V296, P1971 PARMESAN C, 2003, NATURE, V421, P37 PARRY ML, 2001, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V11, P181 PARRY ML, 2001, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V11, P257 PEARCE DW, 2003, OXFORD REV EC POLICY, V19 PHILIBERT C, 2003, COMENVEPOCIEASLT2003 PITTOCK AB, 2001, NATURE, V413, P249 PITTOCK AB, 2002, ENVIRONMENT, V44, P20 RAHMSTORF S, 1996, CLIM DYNAM, V12, P799 RAHMSTORF S, 2002, NATURE, V419, P207 REILLY JM, 1999, NATURE, V401 RIJSBERMAN FR, 1990, TARGETS INDICATORS C ROEHRL RA, 2000, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V63, P231 ROOT TL, 2003, NATURE, V421, P57 ROUGHGARDEN T, 1999, ENERG POLICY, V27, P415 SCHELLNHUBER, 2002, CHALLENGES CHANGING SCHNEIDER S, 2003, ENVEPOCGSP200313FINA SCHNEIDER SH, 2000, PACIFIC ASIAN J ENER, V10, P81 SCHNEIDER SH, 2001, NATURE, V411, P17 SMITH JB, 2003, ENVEPOCGSP200212FINA SMITH JB, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 STOCKER TF, 1997, NATURE, V388, P862 TOL R, 2003, ENVEPOCGSP200314FINA TOL RSJ, 2000, WORLD ECON, V1, P179 TOL RSJ, 2001, ECOL ECON, V36, P71 TOL RSJ, 2002, ENVIRON RESOUR ECON, V21, P135 TOL RSJ, 2003, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V56, P265 TOTH FL, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, CH10 VELLINGA M, 2002, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V54, P251 WEBSTER M, 2003, IN PRESS CLIMATIC CH WEYANT J, 1999, ENERGY J SPECIAL ISS WIGLEY T, 2003, OECD PROJ BEN CLIM P WIGLEY TML, 1996, NATURE, V379, P240 WIGLEY TML, 2001, SCIENCE, V293, P451 YOHE GW, 2002, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V12, P25 YOHE GW, 2003, ENVEPOCGSP20038FINAL NR 98 TC 0 J9 GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANGE BP 277 EP 293 PY 2003 PD DEC VL 13 IS 4 GA 751BT UT ISI:000187033500005 ER PT J AU Vose, RS Karl, TR Easterling, DR Williams, CN Menne, MJ TI Climate - Impact of land-use change on climate SO NATURE LA English DT Editorial Material C1 Natl Climat Ctr, Asheville, NC 28801 USA. RP Vose, RS, Natl Climat Ctr, Asheville, NC 28801 USA. CR *IPCC, 2001, IPCC CLIM CHANG 2001 EASTERLING DR, 1996, PUBLICATION OAK RIDG, V4500 HANSEN J, 2001, J GEOPHYS RES-ATMOS, V106, P23947 KALNAY E, 2003, NATURE, V423, P528 KARL TR, 1986, J CLIM APPL METEOROL, V25, P145 OWEN TW, 1998, INT J REMOTE SENS, V19, P3451 NR 6 TC 0 J9 NATURE BP 213 EP 214 PY 2004 PD JAN 15 VL 427 IS 6971 GA 763HE UT ISI:000188068100033 ER PT J AU Glenn, JC Gordon, TJ TI The millennium project: Challenges we face at the millennium SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article AB This issue presents the accumulative research of the past 3 years of the Millennium Project and its approximately 550 participants from 50 countries that have contributed their judgments about the future of humanity, providing an independent, interinstitutional, multinational, and interdisciplinary context for global thinking. Fifteen Global Challenges were identified that humanity faces at the millennium along with the actions to address each, and a range of views on each action. In addition, the Global Lookout Panel identified the means for reducing the time between early alerts and timely action, and explored related moral and ethical aspects of the decision process. A normative scenario to the year 2050 encompasses three themes: technological, human development, and political economic policy. A technique for user interactive exploratory scenarios is also included. The special study on environmental security provides a better understanding of this emerging issue. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Inc. NR 0 TC 0 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE BP 129 EP 312 PY 2001 PD MAR VL 66 IS 2-3 GA 419EQ UT ISI:000167936700001 ER PT J AU Dempsey, R Fisher, A TI Consortium for Atlantic Regional Assessment: Information tools for community adaptation to changes in climate or land use SO RISK ANALYSIS LA English DT Article C1 CSIRO, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia. Penn State Univ, Dept Agr Econ & Rural Sociol, University Pk, PA 16802 USA. Penn State Univ, Penn State Inst Environm, University Pk, PA 16802 USA. RP Dempsey, R, CSIRO, GPO Box 1666, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia. AB To inform local and regional decisions about protecting short-term and long-term quality of life, the Consortium for Atlantic Regional Assessment (CARA) provides data and tools (for the northeastern United States) that can help decisionmakers understand how outcomes of their decisions could be affected by potential changes in both climate and land use. On an interactive, user-friendly website, CARA has amassed data on climate (historical records and future projections for seven global climate models), land cover, and socioeconomic and environmental variables, along with tools to help decisionmakers tailor the data for their own decision types and locations. CARA Advisory Council stakeholders help identify what information and tools stakeholders would find most useful and how to present these: they also provide in-depth feedback for subregion case studies. General lessons include: (1) decisionmakers want detailed local projections for periods short enough to account for extreme events, in contrast to the broader spatial and temporal observations and projections that are available or consistent at a regional level; (2) stakeholders will not use such a website unless it is visually appealing and easy to find the information they want; (3) some stakeholders need background while others want to go immediately to data, and some want maps while others want text or tables. This article also compares what has been learned across case studies of Cape May County, New Jersey, Cape Cod, Massachusetts, and Hampton Roads, Virginia, relating specifically to sea-level rise. Lessons include: (1) groups can be affected differently by physical dangers compared with economic dangers; (2) decisions will differ according to decision makers' preferences about waiting and risk tolerance; (3) future scenarios and maps can help assess the impacts of dangers to emergency evacuation routes, homes, and infrastructure, and the natural environment; (4) residents' and decisionmakers' perceptions are affected by information about potential local impacts from global climate change. CR *NAST, 2000, CLIM CHANG IMP US PO *NAT RES COUNC, 1989, IMPR RISK COMM *NOAA, 2004, LIDAR DAT *NPA DAT SERV INC, 1998, REG EC PROJ SER NPA *PRES C COMM RISK, 1997, FRAM ENV HLTH RISK M *ROYAL SOC, 2002, ROYAL SOC M HELD DEC BAWDEN RJ, 1984, AGR SYST, V13, P205 BEIERLE TC, 2002, DEMOCRACY PRACTICE P BLAIKIE PM, 1994, RISK NATURAL HAZARDS, V1, P1 BOON J, 2005, SEA COAST SEA LEVEL BORD RJ, 1998, CLIMATE RES, V11, P75 BORD RJ, 2000, PUBLIC UNDERST SCI, V9, P205 BOSTROM A, 1994, RISK ANAL, V14, P959 BYERS W, 2000, J RURAL STUD, V16, P459 CALAVITA N, 1994, J AM PLANN ASSOC, V60, P483 CUTTER SL, 2000, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V90, P713 DANIELS T, 1998, CITY COUNTRY COLLIDE FISHER A, 1991, EV EFF RISK COMM WOR FISHER A, 1991, RISK ANAL, V11, P173 FISHER A, 2000, CLIM CHANG COMM 2000 FISHER A, 2000, PREPARING CHANGING C GHOSH K, 2004, AM AGR EC ASS AAEA A GILAU A, 2004, CARA ADV COUNC WORKS KASEMIR B, 2003, PUBLIC PARTICIPATION KATES RW, 2003, ENVIRONMENT, V45, P12 KIPP MJ, 2005, THESIS PENN STATE U LIVERMAN DM, 1990, UNDERSTANDING GLOBAL, V1, P27 LORENZONI I, 2004, INT WORKSH PERSP DAN MORGAN MG, 2002, RISK COMMUNICATION M, P351 MORROW BH, 1999, DISASTERS, V23, P1 MOSER SC, 2004, ENVIRONMENT, V46, P33 NAKICENOVIC N, 2000, INTERGOVERNMENTAL PA OCONNOR RE, 1998, RISK ANAL, V18, P547 OCONNOR RE, 1998, RISK DECISION POLICY, V3, P145 OCONNOR RE, 1999, RISK ANAL, V19, P461 OCONNOR RE, 2000, CLIMATE RES, V14, P255 READ D, 1994, RISK ANAL, V14, P971 REYNOLDS J, 1996, GUIDE INFORMATION MA RYGEL L, 2004, THESIS PENN STATE U SCHULTZ M, 2004, INFORMS C DENV 24 27 SPELLERBERG A, 2001, 200114 STAT NZ STEDMAN RC, 2006, IN PRESS SOC NATURAL WU SY, 2002, CLIMATE RES, V22, P255 NR 43 TC 0 J9 RISK ANAL BP 1495 EP 1509 PY 2005 PD DEC VL 25 IS 6 GA 996YF UT ISI:000234211500012 ER PT J AU ElRaey, M TI Vulnerability assessment of the coastal zone of the Nile delta of Egypt, to the impacts of sea level rise SO OCEAN & COASTAL MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article C1 Univ Alexandria, Inst Grad Studies & Res, Alexandria, Egypt. RP ElRaey, M, Univ Alexandria, Inst Grad Studies & Res, Alexandria, Egypt. AB A survey of the derailed quantitative assessment of the vulnerability of the Nile delta coast of Egypt to the impacts of sea level vise, is presented. GIS and remote-sensing techniques are used together with ground-based surveys to assess vulnerability of the most important economic and historic centers along the coast, the cities of Alexandria, Rosetta and Port-Said. Results indicate that, in these cities alone, over 2 million people will have to abandon their homes, 214000 jobs and over $35.0 billion in land value, property, and tourism income may also be lost due to a SLR of 50 cm. The loss of the world famous historic, cultural and archeological sites is unaccountable. The vulnerability of other low land in Egypt outside these cities remains to be assessed. Development of institutional capabilities for ICZM and upgrading awareness are highly recommended for adaptation in the long run. Periodic nourishment of Alexandria and Rosetta beaches, detached break waters for Polt-Said, and sand dune fixation are the recommended no regrets management measures. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *COAST RES I, DELFT HYDR RES AN VU BROADUS J, EFFECT CHANGES STRAT BRUUN P, 1962, J WATERWAYS HARBORS, V88, P117 ELRAEY M, CHANGING CLIMATE COA, V2, P225 ELRAEY M, INT J REMOTE SENSING ELRAEY M, 1988, ENVIRON MONIT ASSESS, P1 ELRAEY M, 1995, J COASTAL RES, V14, P190 ELRAEY M, 1997, J ENV MONITORING ASS, V47, P59 ELSAYED MK, 1988, RAPP COMM INT MER ME, V31 FRIHY OE, 1992, J INT UNION GEODESY, V11, P81 SESTINI G, 1989, 214 WG UNEPOCA STRZEPEK KM, 1995, CLIMATE CHANGES NR 12 TC 1 J9 OCEAN COAST MANAGE BP 29 EP 40 PY 1997 VL 37 IS 1 GA ZM705 UT ISI:000073567600004 ER PT J AU Morlot, JC Smith, JB Agrawala, S Franck, T TI Long-term goals and post-2012 commitments: where do we go from here with climate policy? SO CLIMATE POLICY LA English DT Article C1 Univ Coll London, Dept Geog, Environm Sci & Soc Res Programme, London WC1E 6BT, England. Stratus Consulting, Boulder, CO USA. OECD, Environm Directorate, Climate Change Programme, Paris, France. MIT, Joint Program Sci & Policy Global Change, Cambridge, MA 02139 USA. RP Morlot, JC, Univ Coll London, Dept Geog, Environm Sci & Soc Res Programme, London WC1E 6BT, England. AB With entry into force of the Kyoto Protocol in 2005, climate change negotiators are turning their attention to the question, 'Where do we go from here?. A key component of answering this question is in understanding the implications for society of alternative long-term goals for greenhouse gas concentrations. One challenge in ongoing negotiations is whether and how to deal with meanings of 'dangerous interference' as outlined in Article 2 of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. This study addresses Article 2 by suggesting the use of long-term goals to guide decisions about the stringency and timing of future climate change commitments. Focusing on mitigation policy benefits and, in particular, on avoiding long-term climate impacts, a number of management approaches and their implications are highlighted. After discussing some challenges of using scientific knowledge to monitor and manage progress, we look at what we can learn from current climate change global impact literature. Solid benchmark indicators appear to be available from global mean temperature change, ecosystems and coastal zone impacts information. We conclude by arguing for global goal-setting based on climate change effects and the use of indicators in these areas as part of post-2012 climate change negotiations. Aggregate global impacts suggest that 3-4 degrees C of global mean temperature increase by 2100 (compared to a reference period of 1990) may be a threshold beyond which all known sector impacts are negative and rising with increasing levels of warming. However, marginal benefits may accrue at lower levels of mean change. Thus, a prudent policy might aim for significantly lower levels and slower rates of global warming. 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AB This paper discusses the vulnerability and adaptation of the agricultural sector of China to global warming. Based on a summarization of Chinese agricultural and general circulation model trends, adverse impacts on China's agriculture caused by a warming and drying climate were identified. Because of limited irrigation potential the sustainable development of Chinese agriculture will be difficult. Six sensitive agricultural areas located on the edges of different agroecological zones, and seven provinces with high vulnerability to the impacts on agriculture, were identified On the basis of an estimation of the potential supply of agricultural products and demand for food, the annual incremental costs for adaptation to climate change would be US$0.8-3.48 billion; without adaptation, the annual agricultural loss due to global warming would be US$1.37-79.98 billion from 2000 to 2050. Adaptive measures discussed include intensive management and the possibility of a tripartite structure of planting that would entail coordinated development of grain crops, feed crops, and cash crops. 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AB The studies of the hydrological impacts of climate change due to the perturbation of the chemical composition of the atmosphere, exhibit a great diversity of methods. This diversity is a consequence of the difficulty of the climate scenario construction at the scale of hydrological models and of the difficulty in the representation of the statistical characteristics of extreme events. Beyond the influence of the methodologies, the results of hydrological impact studies remain conditioned by the quality of the used climate scenarios, in particular precipitation change in mean and variability. The issue of uncertainties integration in the whole impact assessment process is a new one that the scientific community need to address, to answer to the questioning of the stakeholder community. CR BARDOSSY A, 2000, ECLAT WORKSH 3 DEB N BOURAOUI F, 1999, CLIM DYNAM, V15, P153 CHRISTENSEN JH, 2000, ECLAT WORKSH 4 TOUL CROSSLEY JF, 2000, CLIM DYNAM, V16, P949 DEQUE M, LECT NOTES EARTH SCI, V74, P58 DOUVILLE H, 2001, SENSITIVITY GLOBAL R FRIEDLINGSTEIN P, 2001, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V28, P1543 GIBELIN AL, 2001, 79 CTR GROUP MET GRA HOUGHTON JT, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 HULME M, 1999, ECLAT WORKSH 1 HELS KATZ RW, 1999, ECLAT WORKSH 1 HELS MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 METZ B, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 NOILHAN J, 2000, ECLAT WORKSH 4 TOUL ZWIERS FW, 1998, J CLIMATE, V11, P2200 NR 15 TC 0 J9 HOUILLE BLANCHE BP 73 EP 77 PY 2002 IS 8 GA 650TN UT ISI:000181279600013 ER PT J AU Sarewitz, D TI How science makes environmental controversies worse SO ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE & POLICY LA English DT Article C1 Arizona State Univ, Consortium Sci Policy & Outcomes, Tempe, AZ 85287 USA. RP Sarewitz, D, Arizona State Univ, Consortium Sci Policy & Outcomes, POB 874401, Tempe, AZ 85287 USA. AB I use the example of the 2000 US Presidential election to show that political controversies with technical underpinnings are not resolved by technical means. Then, drawing from examples such as climate change, genetically modified foods, and nuclear waste disposal, I explore the idea that scientific inquiry is inherently and unavoidably subject to becoming politicized in environmental controversies. I discuss three reasons for this. First, science supplies contesting parties with their own bodies of relevant, legitimated facts about nature, chosen in part because they help make sense of, and are made sensible by, particular interests and normative frameworks. Second, competing disciplinary approaches to understanding the scientific bases of an environmental controversy may be causally tied to competing value-based political or ethical positions. The necessity of looking at nature through a variety of disciplinary lenses brings with it a variety of normative lenses, as well. Third, it follows from the foregoing that scientific uncertainty, which so often occupies a central place in environmental controversies, can be understood not as a lack of scientific understanding but as the lack of coherence among competing scientific understandings, amplified by the various political, cultural, and institutional contexts within which science is carried out. In light of these observations, I briefly explore the problem of why some types of political controversies become "scientized" and others do not, and conclude that the value bases of disputes underlying environmental controversies must be fully articulated and adjudicated through political means before science can play an effective role in resolving environmental problems. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 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1996, FRONTIERS ILLUSION S SAREWITZ D, 2000, ATLANTIC MONTHLY JUL, P54 SAREWITZ D, 2000, EARTH MATTERS EARTH, P79 SCHNEIDER S, 2002, SCI AM JAN, P62 SCHON DA, 1994, FRAME REFLECTION RES SCHWARZ M, 1990, DIVIDED WE STAND RED SHACKLEY S, 1996, SCI TECHNOL HUM VAL, V21, P275 SIMON HA, 1983, REASON HUMAN AFFAIRS SIMON HA, 1997, ADM BEHAV SNOW A, 2003, RES INTERESTS STIGLITZ JE, 2003, GLOBALIZATION ITS DI VANASSELT MBA, 1996, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V6, P121 VANDERSLUIJS J, 1998, SOC STUD SCI, V28, P291 WAND JN, 2001, AM POLIT SCI REV, V95, P793 WILSON EO, 1998, CONSILIENCE UNITY KN WOLFENBARGER LL, 2000, SCIENCE, V290, P2088 WYNNE B, 1989, ENVIRONMENT, V31, P33 WYNNE B, 1991, SCI TECHNOL, V16, P111 NR 118 TC 3 J9 ENVIRON SCI POLICY BP 385 EP 403 PY 2004 VL 7 IS 5 GA 853JX UT ISI:000223824700004 ER PT J AU Tung, CP TI Climate change impacts on water resources of the Tsengwen creek watershed in Taiwan SO JOURNAL OF THE AMERICAN WATER RESOURCES ASSOCIATION LA English DT Article C1 Natl Taiwan Univ, Dept Agr Engn, Taipei 106, Taiwan. RP Tung, CP, Natl Taiwan Univ, Dept Agr Engn, 1 Roosevelt Rd,Sec 4, Taipei 106, Taiwan. AB This study presents a methodology to evaluate the vulnerability of water resources in the Tsengwen creek watershed, Taiwan. Tsengwen reservoir, located in the Tsengwen creek watershed, is a multipurpose reservoir with a primary function to supply water for the ChiaNan Irrigation District. A simulation procedure was developed to evaluate the impacts of climate change on the water resources system. The simulation procedure includes a streamflow model, a weather generation model, a sequent peak algorithm, and a risk assessment process. Three climate change scenarios were constructed based on the predictions of three General Circulation Models (CCCM, GFDL, and GISS). The impacts of climate change on streamflows were simulated, and, for each climate change scenario, the agricultural water demand was adjusted based on the change of potential evapotranspiration. Simulation results indicated that the climate change may increase the annual and seasonal streamflows in the Tsengwen creek watershed. The increase in streamflows during wet periods may result in serious flooding. In addition, despite the increase in streamflows, the risk of water deficit may still increase from between 4 and 7 percent to between 7 and 13 percent due to higher agricultural water demand. The simulation results suggest that the reservoir capacity may need to be expanded. In response to the climate change, four strategies are suggested: (1) strengthen flood mitigation measures, (2) enhance drought protection strategies, (3) develop new water resources technology, and (4) educate the public. CR *EC ADM, 1995, RES IMP CLIM CHANG T *IPCC WORK GROUP, 1995, IMP AD MIT CLIM CHAN *IPCC WORK GROUP, 1995, SCI CLIM CHANG *MAN BUR TSENGW RE, 1997, INV REP TSENGW RES W *NAT SCI COUNC, 1994, 5 YEAR MID TERM PLAN ALLEN RG, 1991, J WATER RES PL-ASCE, V117, P157 CHANG LH, 1992, WATER RESOUR BULL, V28, P273 FENNESSEY NM, 1994, J WATER RES PL-ASCE, V120, P48 HAITH DA, 1987, WATER RESOUR BULL, V23, P471 HAITH DA, 1992, GEN WATERSHED LOADIN HAMON WR, 1961, J HYDRAULICS DIVISIO, V87, P107 MCCABE GJ, 1989, WATER RESOUR BULL, V25, P1231 MCCABE GJ, 1990, WATER RESOUR BULL, V26, P633 OGROSKY HO, 1964, HDB APPL HYDROLOGY PETERSON DF, 1990, J IRRIG DRAIN E-ASCE, V116, P194 PICKERING NB, 1988, J IRRIG DRAIN ENG, V114, P674 RAO AR, 1995, J IRRIG DRAIN E-ASCE, V121, P207 SELKER JS, 1990, WATER RESOUR RES, V26, P2733 TUNG CP, 1995, J WATER RES PL-ASCE, V121, P216 TUNG CP, 1996, TAIWAN WATER CONSERV, V45, P64 TUNG CP, 1998, IMPACTS CLIMATE CHAN TUNG CP, 1998, J AM WATER RESOUR AS, V34, P1071 WAGGONER PE, 1990, CLIMATE CHANGE US WA NR 23 TC 0 J9 J AM WATER RESOUR ASSOC BP 167 EP 176 PY 2001 PD FEB VL 37 IS 1 GA 413UQ UT ISI:000167630300014 ER PT J AU JASPARS, S YOUNG, H TI MALNUTRITION AND POVERTY IN THE EARLY STAGES OF FAMINE - NORTH DARFUR, 1988-90 SO DISASTERS LA English DT Article AB In this article we report findings on the relationship between malnutrition and poverty during a period of acute food insecurity in Darfur, Sudan. Children of rich and poor families were equally likely to be malnourished, which is explained in terms of people's responses to the threat of famine. This finding has important implications for targeting interventions in the early stages of famine. Appropriate interventions at the early stages of famine are livelihood and income support to the most vulnerable. The entitlement theory of famine causation assumes that the poor are most vulnerable, and become malnourished and die during famines. In this article we show that this assumption does not hold. Even though poverty is the root cause of malnutrition, it does not follow that anthropometric status can be used to target individual poor families, or even that targeting the poor is appropriate in famine situations. CR *UNICEF, 1990, STRAT IMPR NUTR CHIL BAIIRAGI R, 1987, AM J EPIDEMIOL, V126, P259 BECKER S, 1986, ECOL FOOD NUTR, V18, P251 BEHRMAN JR, 1988, J DEV ECON, V28, P43 BORTON J, 1989, DISASTERS, V13, P77 CAMPBELL DJ, 1982, SOC SCI MED, V16, P2117 CAMPBELL DJ, 1990, FOOD FOODWAYS, V4, P143 CHAMBERS R, 1989, IDS B, V20, P1 CORBETT J, 1988, WORLD DEV, V16, P1092 DEWAAL A, 1989, FAMINE KILLS DARFUR DEWAAL A, 1993, IDS B, V24 DUFFIELD M, 1994, WAR HUNGER GRANDIN BE, 1988, WEALTH RANKING SMALL HARRISS B, 1990, EC POLITICAL WE 1222 JODHA NS, 1975, EC POLITICAL WE 1011 KAISER LL, 1991, ECOL FOOD NUTR, V25, P147 KEEN D, 1991, DISASTERS, V15, P150 KELLY M, 1992, DISASTERS, V16, P322 KELLY M, 1993, DISASTERS, V17, P49 LIPTON M, 1983, POVERTY UNDERNUTRITI MARTORELL R, 1984, AM J CLIN NUTR, V39, P74 MASON JB, 1985, ECOL FOOD NUTR, V18, P1 MUNOZ M, 1974, ECOL FOOD NUTR, V3, P223 NABARRO D, 1981, FOOD NUTRITION B, V6 RAHMATO D, 1988, DISASTERS, V12, P326 REARDON T, 1988, WORLD DEV, V16, P1065 SEN AK, 1981, POVERTY FAMINES ESSA, V1, P1 SHOHAM J, 1989, DISASTERS, V13, P45 SMITH MF, 1983, ECOL FOOD NUTR, V13, P99 SWIFT J, 1989, IDS B, V20, P8 TOMKINS AM, 1986, ECOL FOOD NUTR, V18, P107 VALVERDE V, 1977, ECOL FOOD NUTR, V6, P1 VALVERDE V, 1981, ECOL FOOD NUTR, V10, P241 WATTS MJ, 1988, COPING UNCERTAINTY F WEBB P, 1993, DISASTERS, V17, P33 WHEELER E, 1988, COPING UNCERTAINTY F YOUNG H, 1995, DISASTERS, V19, P26 YOUNG H, 1995, DISASTERS, V19, P94 YOUNG H, 1995, NUTRITION MATTERS PE ZEITLIN M, 1991, NUTRITION REV, V49 NR 40 TC 2 J9 DISASTERS BP 198 EP 215 PY 1995 PD SEP VL 19 IS 3 GA RQ771 UT ISI:A1995RQ77100003 ER PT J AU WESTING, AH TI ENVIRONMENTAL SECURITY AND ITS RELATION TO ETHIOPIA AND SUDAN SO AMBIO LA English DT Article C1 UN,ENVIRONM PROGRAM,NEW YORK,NY 10017. UN,INST DISARMAMENT RES,NEW YORK,NY 10017. INT PEACE RES INST,OSLO,NORWAY. INT PEACE RES INST,STOCKHOLM,NORWAY. AB In the present overview, environmental security is comprised of two inter-connected parts: (a) environmental protection from wartime and similar abuse, from medically unacceptable pollution and, in some instances, from any permanent human intrusion; and (b) sane resource utilization, with the renewable resources utilized sustainably and the non-renewable resources utilized efficiently and frugally. Environmental security is considered unattainable without the concomitant achievement of social security, the latter being comprised of four interconnected parts: (a) political security; (b) military security; (c) economic security; and (d) personal security. Environmental and social security together are considered to constitute comprehensive human security. Ethiopia and Sudan are taken to illustrate this expanded concept of security. Among other conclusions, it is suggested that in order to be able to achieve environmental security, Ethiopia and Sudan must: (i) strive for this goal in cooperation with their ecogeographical partners, a fundamental prerequisite of which is to come to grips with their seemingly endless internal and cross-border wars; and (ii) bring resource utilization into balance with resource availability, a fundamental prerequisite of which is to come to grips with population pressures. CR 1989, UNHCR SHEET, V3, P1 1990, 1990 AMN INT REP 1990, 1990 UN LIST NATIONA 1990, COUNTRY REPORTS HUMA 1990, WORLD MILITARY EXPEN 1990, WORLD RESOURCES 1990 BROWN LR, 1985, 65 WORLDW I PAP CALDWELL LK, 1970, NAT RESOUR J, V10, P203 CLIFFE L, 1989, DEV CHANGE, V20, P373 DREGNE HE, 1984, ENVIRON CONSERV, V11, P115 ELHINNAWI E, 1985, ENV REFUGEES FARER TJ, 1979, WAR CLOUDS HORN AFRI HARDIN G, 1985, AM ZOOL, V25, P469 HUMANA C, 1986, WORLD HUMAN RIGHTS G JACOBSON JL, 1988, 86 WORLDW I PAP KLITGAARD R, 1990, TROPICAL GANGSTERS LUCKHAM R, 1985, SIPRI YB, P295 MCCOLM RB, 1991, FREEDOM WORLD POLITI MYERS N, 1987, ENVIRON CONSERV, V14, P15 NEWBY JE, 1984, NATIONAL PARKS CONSE, P130 OBASANJO O, 1987, AFRICAN PERSPECTIVE PICARDI AC, 1975, TECHNOL REV, V78, P42 SAI FT, 1984, SCIENCE, V226, P801 SINCLAIR ARE, 1985, CAN J ZOOL, V63, P987 TOOLE MJ, 1988, B WORLD HEALTH ORGAN, V66, P237 VALLENTYNE JR, 1988, ENVIRON CONSERV, V15, P58 WESTING AH, 1980, WARFARE FRAGILE WORL, P103 WESTING AH, 1986, GLOBAL RESOURCES INT, P183 WESTING AH, 1988, CULTURAL NORMS WAR E, P163 WESTING AH, 1989, B PEACE PROPOSALS, V20, P129 WESTING AH, 1989, COMPREHENSIVE SECURI, P1 WESTING AH, 1989, ENVIRON CONSERV, V16, P295 NR 32 TC 6 J9 AMBIO BP 168 EP 171 PY 1991 PD AUG VL 20 IS 5 GA GB279 UT ISI:A1991GB27900002 ER PT J AU Mustafa, D TI Linking access and vulnerability: Perceptions of irrigation and flood management in Pakistan SO PROFESSIONAL GEOGRAPHER LA English DT Article C1 Univ S Florida, Dept Geog, St Petersburg, FL 33701 USA. RP Mustafa, D, Univ S Florida, Dept Geog, St Petersburg, FL 33701 USA. AB This article reports the results of a survey conducted in four villages in central Pakistan regarding people perceptions about irrigation- and flood-related issues. The article uses the perception studies methodology, from the human ecology school to address the political ecology agenda in resource and hazards geography. The log-linear analysis of the survey data shows that people are knowledgeable about social power differentials and interactions between various social factors in influencing their access to resources and vulnerability to floods. The article further demonstrates that water users and vulnerable populations are much more likely to suggest social explanations than naturalistic or fatalistic explanations fur their differential access to irrigation water and vulnerability to flood hazard. CR *GOV PAK, 2000, AGR STAT PAK *INS CORP, S PLUS STAT PACK *WAPDA, 1990, WAT SECT INV PLANN S *WORLD BANK, 1994, PAK IRR DRAIN ISS OP AHMAD M, 1992, 166 WORLD BANK BLAIKIE PM, 1987, LAND DEGRADATION SOC BLAIKIE PM, 1994, RISK NATURAL HAZARDS, V1, P1 EMEL J, 1989, NEW MODELS GEOGRAPHY, V1, P49 ENARSON E, 1998, GENDERED TERRAIN DIS EVERITT B, 1992, ANAL CONTINGENCY TAB FORDHAM MH, 1998, DISASTERS, V22, P126 HARDING S, 1987, FEMINISM METHODOLOGY HEWITT K, 1983, INTERPRETATIONS CALA, P3 HEWITT K, 1997, REGIONS RISK GEOGRAP, V1, P1 JAYARATNE TE, 1991, METHODOLOGY FEMINIST, P85 KATES R, 1986, GEOGRAPHY RESOURCES, V1 LIVERMAN DM, 1990, UNDERSTANDING GLOBAL, V1, P27 MILETI DS, 1999, DISASTER DESIGN REAS MUSTAFA D, 1997, WATER INT, V22, P238 MUSTAFA D, 1998, ECON GEOGR, V74, P289 MUSTAFA D, 1999, THESIS U COLORADO BO NEUMAN WL, 1997, SOCIAL RES METHODS Q PALM RS, 1990, NATURAL HAZARDS INTE PAUL BK, 1998, PROF GEOGR, V50, P287 RAMACHANDRAN R, 1974, NATURAL HAZARDS LOCA, P36 REINHARZ S, 1992, FEMINIST METHOD SOCI REITSMA RF, 1997, INTRO QUANTITATIVE M SAARINEN TF, 1966, 106 U CHIC DEP GEOGR SHIN EF, 1987, THESIS COLORADO STAT SILVERMAN D, 1993, INTERPRETING QUALITA TOBIN GA, 1997, NATURAL HAZARDS EXPL VANDERVELDE EJ, 1980, IRRIGATION AGR DEV A, P299 WADDELL E, 1977, HUM ECOL, V5, P69 WADDELL E, 1983, INTERPRETATIONS CALA, P33 WATTS MJ, 1983, INTERPRETATIONS CALA, P231 WATTS MJ, 1993, PROG HUM GEOG, V17, P43 WESCOAT JL, 1987, PROG HUM GEOG, V11, P41 WESCOAT JL, 1992, 5 CADSWES WESCOAT JL, 1992, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V82, P587 WESCOAT JL, 2000, INT J WATER RESOUR D, V16, P391 WHITE GF, 1945, 29 U CHIC DEP GEOGR WHITE GF, 1974, NATURAL HAZARDS LOCA, P3 WHITE GF, 1986, GEOGRAPHY RESOURCES, V1, P143 WHYTE AVT, 1986, GEOGRAPHY RESOURCES, V2, P240 NR 44 TC 0 J9 PROF GEOGR BP 94 EP 105 PY 2002 PD FEB VL 54 IS 1 GA 529DC UT ISI:000174283900011 ER PT J AU MCPHERSON, HJ SAARINEN, TF TI FLOOD PLAIN DWELLERS PERCEPTION OF FLOOD HAZARD IN TUCSON, ARIZONA SO ANNALS OF REGIONAL SCIENCE LA English DT Article C1 UNIV ALBERTA,DEPT GEOG,EDMONTON,ALBERTA,CANADA. UNIV ARIZONA,DEPT GEOG REG DEV & URBAN PLANNING,TUCSON,AZ 85721. CR 1973, FLOOD PLAIN INFORMAT BURTON I, 1965, GEOGRAPHICAL B, P161 ERICKSON NJ, NATURAL HAZARDS ERICKSON NJ, 1971, NEW ZEALAND GEOGRAPH, P105 JACKSON EL, 1974, THESIS U TORONTO JAMES LD, 1974, ERC0671 GEORG I TECH KATES TW, 1962, 78 U CHIC DEP GEOGR MOLINE NT, 1975, NATURAL HAZARDS, P52 SAARINEN TF, 1971, J ARIZONA ACADEMY SC, P260 WHITE GF, 1945, 29 U CHIC DEP GEOGR WHITE GF, 1975, ASSESSMENT RES NATUR, V1, P1 WHITE GF, 1975, NSFRAE75 U COL I BEH NR 12 TC 4 J9 ANN REG SCI BP 25 EP 40 PY 1977 VL 11 IS 2 GA DP472 UT ISI:A1977DP47200003 ER PT J AU Weinstein, MP Baird, RC Conover, DO Gross, M Keulartz, J Loomis, DK Naveh, Z Peterson, SB Reed, DJ Roe, E Swanson, RL Swart, JAA Teal, JM Turner, RE van der Windt, HJ TI Managing coastal resources in the 21st century SO FRONTIERS IN ECOLOGY AND THE ENVIRONMENT LA English DT Article C1 New Jersey Marine Sci Consortium, Sandy Hook, NJ 07732 USA. Univ N Carolina, Ctr Marine Sci, Wilmington, NC 28409 USA. SUNY Stony Brook, Marine Sci Res Ctr, Stony Brook, NY 11794 USA. Environm Res Ctr, UFZ, Dept Urban & Environm Sociol, Leipzig, Germany. Univ Wageningen & Res Ctr, Dept Appl Philosophy, NL-6700 HB Wageningen, Netherlands. Univ Massachusetts, Dept Nat Resources Consortium, Human Dimens Res Unit, Amherst, MA 01003 USA. Technion Israel Inst Technol, Fac Civil & Environm Engn, IL-32000 Haifa, Israel. Teal Partners, Rochester, MA 02770 USA. Univ New Orleans, New Orleans, LA 70148 USA. Calif State Univ Hayward, Dept Publ Affairs & Adm, Hayward, CA 94542 USA. Univ Groningen, Ctr Biol, Sci & Soc Grp, NL-9700 AB Groningen, Netherlands. Woods Hole Oceanog Inst, Dept Biol, Woods Hole, MA 02543 USA. Louisiana State Univ, Coastal Ecol Inst, Baton Rouge, LA 70803 USA. RP Weinstein, MP, New Jersey Marine Sci Consortium, Sandy Hook, NJ 07732 USA. AB Coastal ecosystems are increasingly dominated by humans. Consequently, the human dimensions of sustainability science have become an integral part of emerging coastal governance and management practices. But if we are to avoid the harsh lessons of land management, coastal decision makers must recognize that humans are one of the more coastally dependent species in the biosphere. Management responses must therefore confront both the temporal urgency and the very real compromises and sacrifices that will be necessary to achieve a sustainable coastal ecosystem, one that is economically feasible, socially just, and ecologically sound. CR *CBD, 1993, HDB CONV BIOL DIV *PEW OC COMM, 2003, AM LIV OC CHART COUR *US COMM OC POL, 2004, OC BLUEPR 21 CENT FI AYENSU E, 1999, SCIENCE, V286, P685 BAIRD RC, 2005, SUSTAINING LARGE MAR BERKES F, 2006, ECOL SOC, V11, P45 BRUCKMEIER K, 2005, AMBIO, V34, P65 CALLICOTT JB, 1999, CONSERV BIOL, V13, P22 CASH DW, 2000, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V10, P109 CLARK WC, 2003, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V100, P8059 COURTNEY J, 2003, OCEAN ZONING GULF MA CROWDER LB, 2006, SCIENCE, V313, P617 EHRENFELD DW, 1981, ARROGANCE HUMANISM GALLUP JL, 1999, INT REGIONAL SCI REV, V22, P179 GIBBONS M, 1994, NEW PRODUCTION KNOWL HOLLING CS, 2000, CONSERV ECOL, V4, P1 KATES RW, 2001, SCIENCE, V292, P641 KATES RW, 2003, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V100, P8062 KAUFMANN RK, 1995, ECOL ECON, V15, P109 KENNEDY JJ, 1995, NEW CENTURY NAT RESO LUBCHENCO J, 1998, SCIENCE, V279, P491 LUDWIG D, 1993, SCIENCE, V260, P17 MCMICHAEL AJ, 2003, SCIENCE, V302, P1919 NAVEH Z, 2002, INT J ECOLOGY ENV SC, V28, P167 NAVEH Z, 2005, RESTOR ECOL, V13, P228 NOWOTNY H, 2001, RETHINKING SCI KNOWL ROE E, 2001, ENVIRON MANAGE, V27, P195 ROE E, 2005, J PUBL ADM RES THEOR, V15, P263 SALZ RJ, SCI BASED RESTORATIO SCHUBEL JR, 1978, ESTUARINE INTERACTIO SWART JAA, 2005, RESTOR ECOL, V13, P183 WEINSTEIN MP, 2005, RESTOR ECOL, V13, P174 WEINSTEIN MP, 2005, URBAN DIMENSIONS ENV YOUNG S, 2006, VERMONT J ENV LAW, V7, P1 NR 34 TC 0 J9 FRONT ECOL ENVIRON BP 43 EP 48 PY 2007 PD FEB VL 5 IS 1 GA 133VP UT ISI:000244042300023 ER PT J AU Moser, CON TI The asset vulnerability framework: Reassessing urban poverty reduction strategies SO WORLD DEVELOPMENT LA English DT Article C1 World Bank, Washington, DC 20433 USA. RP Moser, CON, World Bank, 1818 H St NW, Washington, DC 20433 USA. AB Identifying what the poor have, rather than what they do not have, focuses on their assets. This paper contributes to the extensive vulnerability/assets literature, by categorizing the assets of the urban poor in terms of an "asset vulnerability framework." These include both tangible assets, such as labor and human capital, less familiar productive assets, such as housing, as well as intangible assets, such as household relations and social capital. Results from a recent urban study show that the poor are managers of complex asset portfolios, and illustrate how asset management affects household poverty and vulnerability. Translated into operational practice this framework facilitates interventions promoting opportunities, as well as removing obstacles, to ensure the urban poor use their assets productively. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *IDS IUED, 1994, POV ASS PUBL EXP SUM *ODA, 1995, PROGR REP ODAS POL O *UN DEV PROGR, 1993, UNDP CHART CHANG *WORLD BANK, 1990, WORLD DEV REP 1990 P *WORLD BANK, 1991, ASS STRAT RED POV WO *WORLD BANK, 1991, URB POL EC DEV AG 19 *WORLD BANK, 1992, POV RED HDB *WORLD BANK, 1995, SOC IMP ADJ OP OV *WORLD BANK, 1996, EC POV REP ADAMS A, 1993, IDS BULL-I DEV STUD, V24, P41 ANDERSON M, 1989, RISING ASHES DEV STR BARDHAN P, 1996, ANN WORLD BANK C DEV BAULCH B, 1996, IDS BULL-I DEV STUD, V27, P1 BAULCH B, 1996, IDS BULL-I DEV STUD, V27, P36 BAYLISSSMITH T, 1991, IDS BULL-I DEV STUD, V22, P5 BLAIKE P, 1987, LAND DEGRADATION SOC CAMDESSUS M, 1990, FINANCE DEV SEP CHAMBERS R, 1989, IDS B, V20, P1 CHAMBERS R, 1992, 311 I DEV STUD CHAMBERS R, 1995, 347 I DEV STUD COLEMAN J, 1990, FDN SOCIAL THEORY CORBETT J, 1988, WORLD DEV, V16 DASGUPTA P, 1993, INQUIRY WELL BEING D DAVIES S, 1993, IDS BULL-I DEV STUD, V24, P60 DEVEREUX S, 1993, IDS BULL-I DEV STUD, V24, P52 DEWAAL A, 1989, FAMINES KILL DARFUR DOWNING TE, 1991, ASSESSING SOCIOECONO DREZE J, 1989, HUNGER PUBLIC ACTION ELSON D, 1991, MALE BIAS DEV PROCES EVANS A, 1989, 254 I DEV STUD FORTES M, 1958, DEV CYCLE DOMESTIC G GLEWWE P, 1995, 117 WORLD BANK GORE C, 1995, SOCIAL EXCLUSION RHE HARDOY J, 1990, POOR D YOUNG HOUSING LEWIS O, 1961, CHILDREN SANCHEZ LIPTON M, 1992, 306 I DEV STUD LIPTON M, 1995, HDB DEV EC B, V3, P2551 LOMNITZ L, 1977, NETWORKS MARGINALITY LONGHURST R, 1994, I DEV STUDIES B, V25, P21 MAXWELL M, 1992, HOUSEHOLD FOOD SECUR MAXWELL S, 1992, HOUSEHOLD FOOD SECUR MOSER C, 1992, WOMEN ADJUSTMENT POL MOSER C, 1993, GENDER PLANNING DEV MOSER C, 1996, 10 OU TWU WORLD BANK MOSER C, 1996, 20 WORLD BANK URB MA MOSER C, 1996, ENV SUSTAINABLE STUD, V8 MOSER C, 1997, 21 WORLD BANK URB MA MOSER C, 1997, 22 WORLD BANK URB MA MOSER C, 1997, 24 WORLD BANK URB MA MOSER C, 1997, WORLD BANK LATIN AM NARAYAN D, 1997, 1796 WORLD BANK PERLMAN J, 1976, MYTH MARGINALITY PLATTEAU JP, 1991, SOCIAL SECURITY DEV, P112 PUTNAM R, 1993, MAKING DEMOCRACY WOR RAVALLION M, 1992, 88 WORLD BANK LIV ST SAHLINS M, 1965, RELEVANCE MODELS SOC, P139 SCOTT J, 1976, MORAL EC PEASANT REB SEN AK, 1981, POVERTY FAMINES ESSA, V1, P1 SEN AK, 1985, COMMODITIES CAPABILI SEN AK, 1990, PERSISTENT INEQUALIT STREETEN P, 1981, 1 THINGS 1 M BASIC N SWIFT J, 1989, I DEV STUDIES B, V20, P49 TOYE J, 1996, IDS BULL-I DEV STUD, V27, P56 NR 63 TC 47 J9 WORLD DEVELOP BP 1 EP 19 PY 1998 PD JAN VL 26 IS 1 GA YW248 UT ISI:000071913300001 ER PT J AU Nakamura, T TI Ecosystem-based River Basin Management: its approach and policy-level application SO HYDROLOGICAL PROCESSES LA English DT Article C1 UNEP, Div GEF Coordinat, Nairobi, Kenya. RP Nakamura, T, UNEP, Div GEF Coordinat, POB 30552, Nairobi, Kenya. AB Integrated Water Resources Management is an approach aimed at achieving sustainable development with a focus on water resources. This management concept is characterized by its catchment approach, inter-sectoral and interdisciplinary approach and multiple management objectives. There is an effort to widen the management scope to include multiple resources and environmental considerations in the river basin management schemes. In order to achieve river basin management objectives and multiple global environmental benefits, an ecosystem approach to river basin management is promoted. The Ecosystem-based River Basin Management aims to maximize and optimize the total value of the ecosystem functions relevant to classified ecosystems within a river basin by conserving and even enhancing these functions for the next generations. A procedure to incorporate such ecosystem functions into policy framework is presented in this paper. Based on this policy framework of the Ecosystem-based River Basin Management, a case study is introduced to apply the concept to the Yangtze River basin. According to the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) assessment report, this basin suffers from frequent floods of large magnitudes, which are due to the degradation of ecosystem functions in the basin. In this case, the government of the People's Republic of China introduced Ecosystem Function Conservation Areas to conserve ecosystem functions related to flood events and magnitude, such as soil conservation, agricultural practices and forestry, while producing economic benefits for the local population. Copyright (C) 2003 John Wiley Sons, Ltd. CR MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 *IUCN, 2000, VISION WATER NATURE *SEPA STAT ENV PRO, 2002, INC REP NAT CONS FLO *SOPAC, 1999, ENV VULN IND EVI SUM *UN, 1993, UN C ENV DEV RIO DEJ, V1 *UNDP UNZP WB, 2000, WORLD RES 2000 2001 *UNEP CIRAD CTR IN, 2001, 1 REG WORKSH INT COA *UNEP DHI SGPRE SE, 2002, VER GEST INT BAS VER *UNEP IUCN, 2001, MT11009971 *UNEP MAP PAP, 1999, CONC FRAM PLANN GUID *UNEP MAP PAP, 2000, ENV SOC PROF RIV CET *UNEP WETL INT, 1997, WETL INT RIV BAS MAN *UNEP, 1999, REPORT SCOPING MISSI *UNEP, 2000, GLOB ENV OUTL 2000 *WCD, 2000, DAMS DEV NEW FRAM DE *WCED, 1987, COMM FUT *WMO, 1997, COMPR ASS FRESHW RES *WORLD EC FOR, 2000, PIL ENV SUST IND IN ADAMUS PR, 1987, Y87 US ARM CORPS ENG DAVID L, 1986, RESOUR POLICY, V12, P307 DAVID LJ, 1988, WATER RESOURCES DEV, V4, P103 GLEICK PH, 2000, REPORT WATER SECTOR JAMES RF, 1991, 29 PAPHAWB AS WETL B MALTBY E, 1994, GLOBAL WETLANDS OLD, P637 NAKAMURA T, 2001, P INT SEM INT WAT MA, P161 NAKAMURA T, 2002, MITIGATION MANAGEMEN, P66 PATKINS J, 2000, 40 COMM SECR RITCHIE KA, 1997, WETLANDS INTEGRATED, P279 SHIKOLOMANOV IA, 1993, PACIFIC I STUDIES DE ZALEWSKI M, 2000, ECOL ENG, V16, P1 NR 30 TC 0 J9 HYDROL PROCESS BP 2711 EP 2725 PY 2003 PD OCT 15 VL 17 IS 14 GA 730TQ UT ISI:000185846600003 ER PT J AU Boughton, DA Smith, ER O'Neill, RV TI Regional vulnerability: A conceptual framework SO ECOSYSTEM HEALTH LA English DT Editorial Material C1 US EPA, Off Res & Dev, Natl Exposure Res Lab, Res Triangle Pk, NC 27711 USA. Oak Ridge Natl Lab, Div Environm Sci, Oak Ridge, TN 37831 USA. RP Smith, ER, US EPA, Off Res & Dev, Natl Exposure Res Lab, MD-75, Res Triangle Pk, NC 27711 USA. AB Regional vulnerability assessment, or ReVA, is an approach to place-based ecological risk assessment that is currently under development by the off ice of Research and Development of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). The assessment is done at the scale of EPA regions and builds on data collected for the Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program (EMAP) of the EPA. The pilot ReVA is being developed for the U.S, mid-Atlantic region to identify those ecosystems, together with the ecological goods and services they provide, that are most vulnerable to being lost in the next 20 years. The project is currently exploring different conceptual approaches to integrated assessment. In this article, we give an operational approach to estimating ecosystem vulnerability and discuss important issues arising from it. The first issue is estimating vulnerability at the regional scale as opposed to the more familiar local scale. The second issue is integrating information about different sorts of risks in order to prioritize them at the regional scale. The challenge of integration is considerable because of the possibility of synergistic (mutually reinforcing) interactions between different environmental stresses. Synergistic effects are often too poorly known to include, yet potentially too important to ignore. Vulnerability at the regional scale may provide a pragmatic, middle-road approach to this problem by highlighting and characterizing geographic areas that are expected to change the most in the future. The goal is not exact predictions, but a first-cut early warning system to identify and prioritize the risks of undesirable environmental changes over the next few decades. CR *EPA, 1998, EPA630R95002F OFF RE BENDA LE, 1995, AM FISHERIES SOC S, V17, P261 BURGMAN MA, 1993, RISK ASSESSMENT CONS CHRISTENSEN NL, 1989, BIOSCIENCE, V39, P678 CLEMENTS FE, 1916, PUBLICATION CARNEGIE, V242 CLEMENTS FE, 1936, J ECOL, V24, P252 DAILY GC, 1997, NATURES SERVICES SOC EHRENFELD D, 1991, ECOSYSTEM HLTH NEW G, P135 EHRENFELD D, 1995, ECOSYST HEALTH, V1, P15 GAUDET CL, 1997, ECOSYST HEALTH, V3, P3 HANSKI I, 1994, J ANIM ECOL, V63, P151 HANSKI I, 1997, SPATIAL ECOLOGY, P21 HARMON ME, 1986, ADV ECOLOGICAL RES HOUGHTON JT, 1990, CLIMATE CHANGE IPCC HOUGHTON JT, 1995, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995 HUNSAKER CT, 1995, BIOSCIENCE, V45, P193 JONES KB, 1997, EPA600R97130 OFF RES, P38 KOHM KA, 1997, CREATING FORESTRY 21 LEVINS R, 1995, ECOSYST HEALTH, V1, P47 MCCORMICK RH, 1999, IN PRESS T AM FISHER MEFFEE GK, 1997, PRINCIPLES CONSERVAT MOLAK V, 1997, FUNDAMENTALS RISK AN OMERNICK JM, 1977, EPA600377105 OFF RES ONEILL RV, 1986, HIERARCHICAL CONCEPT ONEILL RV, 1997, BIOSCIENCE, V47, P513 PERRY DA, 1997, CREATING FORESTRY 21, P31 PICKET STA, 1985, ECOLOGY NATURAL DIST PIMM SL, 1991, BALANCE NATURE ECOLO RAPPORT DJ, 1998, TRENDS ECOL EVOL, V13, P397 ROMME WH, 1989, BIOSCIENCE, V39, P695 SPIES T, 1997, CREATING FORESTRY 21, P11 WHITFORD WG, 1996, GIS WORLD, V9, P60 WU JG, 1995, Q REV BIOL, V70, P439 NR 33 TC 6 J9 ECOSYST HEALTH BP 312 EP 322 PY 1999 PD DEC VL 5 IS 4 GA 279RR UT ISI:000085059400009 ER PT J AU SONKA, ST LAMB, PJ TI ON CLIMATE CHANGE AND ECONOMIC-ANALYSIS SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 UNIV ILLINOIS,DEPT ATMOSPHER SCI,URBANA,IL 61801. ILLINOIS STATE WATER SURVEY,CLIMATE & METEOROL SECT,URBANA,IL 61801. RP SONKA, ST, UNIV ILLINOIS,DEPT AGR ECON,URBANA,IL 61801. CR 1979, CARBON DIOXIDE CLIMA 1982, CARBON DIOXIDE CLIMA ANTLE JM, 1983, AM J AGR ECON, V65, P1099 AUSUBEL JH, 1983, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V5, P7 AVERY DT, 1986, 1986 NAT COOP BUS AS BOGGESS WG, 1985, SO J AGR EC, V17, P43 BRYAN K, 1982, SCIENCE, V215, P56 CHANGNON SA, 1977, HAIL SUPPRESSION IMP CHAVAS JP, 1984, AM J AGR ECON, V66, P705 CHEN RS, 1981, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V3, P429 CHEN RS, 1983, CLIMATIC CHANGE, P1 CLARK WC, 1985, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V7, P5 COMIS D, 1986, AGR RES, V34, P6 DAVIS GB, 1985, MANAGEMENT INFORMATI DICKINSON RF, 1986, SCOPE, V29, P207 EDELSON E, 1986, MOSAIC, V17, P42 GATES WL, 1985, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V7, P267 GEIGEL JM, 1984, REV EVALUATION WEATH, P84 GLANTZ MH, 1985, SCOPE, V27, P565 HARE FK, 1985, SCOPE, V27, P37 HARMON P, 1985, ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGE HAYAMI Y, 1971, AGR DEV INT PERSPECT HOFFERT MI, 1985, PROJECTING CLIMATIC, P149 HOLT DA, 1985, SCIENCE, V228, P422 JOHNSON SR, 1986, AM J AGR EC, V68, P387 KATZ RW, 1977, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V1, P85 KATZ RW, 1982, J APPL METEOROL, V21, P518 KENNEDY JOS, 1981, REV MARKETING AGR EC, V49, P141 LAMB PJ, 1979, PROGR PHYS GEOGR, V3, P215 LAMB PJ, 1987, IN PRESS B AM METEOR, V68 LIVERMAN DM, 1983, THESIS NATIONAL CTR LIVERMAN DM, 1986, J CLIMATOL, V6, P355 LOVELL CAK, 1985, SCOPE, V27, P323 MACCRACKEN MC, 1985, DETECTING CLIMATIC E MARSOLAN NF, 1976, MATH BIOSCI, V30, P231 MEYERABICH KM, 1980, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V2, P373 MJELDE JW, 1985, THESIS U ILLINOIS UR NIX HA, 1985, SCOPE, V27, P105 OFFUTT SE, 1984, J POLICY MODEL, V6, P311 ORAM PA, 1985, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V7, P129 PALUTIKOF JP, 1984, TRO12 US DEP EN CARB PARRY ML, 1985, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V7, P95 PETERS TJ, 1982, SEARCH EXCELLENCE PITTOCK AB, 1986, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V8, P243 ROBINSON JB, 1985, SCOPE, V27, P469 ROSENZWEIG C, 1985, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V7, P367 SAKAMOTO C, 1979, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V2, P7 SANTER B, 1985, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V7, P71 SASSONE PG, 1982, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V4, P133 SCHLESINGER ME, 1985, POTENTIAL CLIMATIC E, P81 SCHNEIDER SH, 1981, J GEOPHYS RES, V86, P3135 SHAPELY D, 1985, LOST FRONTIER SHARPLES JA, 1969, AM J AGR ECON, V51, P353 SHOVEN JB, 1984, J ECON LIT, V22, P1007 SHUMWAY CR, 1977, AM J AGR EC, V59, P347 SIMON HA, 1969, NEW SCI MANAGEMENT D SMARR LL, 1985, SCIENCE, V228, P403 SMITH VK, 1982, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V4, P5 SONKA ST, 1985, COMPUTERS ELECTRONIC, V1, P75 SONKA ST, 1986, J CLIMATOL, V6, P447 SWANSON ER, 1979, AM J AGR ECON, V61, P849 TERJUNG WH, 1984, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V6, P193 WARRICK RA, 1981, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V3, P387 WHITE RM, 1982, B AM METEOROLOGICAL, V63, P924 WIGLEY TML, 1986, SCOPE, V29, P271 WINKLER RL, 1983, J CLIMATOL, V3, P187 ZAVALETA LR, 1980, AM J AGR ECON, V62, P801 NR 67 TC 14 J9 CLIMATIC CHANGE BP 291 EP 311 PY 1987 PD DEC VL 11 IS 3 GA K7344 UT ISI:A1987K734400002 ER PT J AU Bettelheim, EC D'Origny, G TI Carbon sinks and emissions trading under the Kyoto Protocol: a legal analysis SO PHILOSOPHICAL TRANSACTIONS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY OF LONDON SERIES A-MATHEMATICAL PHYSICAL AND ENGINEERING SCIENCES LA English DT Article C1 Mishcon de Reya, London WC1R 4QD, England. Foley Hoag LLP, Washington, DC 20006 USA. RP Bettelheim, EC, Mishcon de Reya, Summit House,12 Red Lion Sq, London WC1R 4QD, England. AB The controversy over the issues of carbon sinks and emissions trading nearly aborted the Kyoto Protocol. The lengthy and intense debate over the roles that each are to play under the Protocol and the consequent political compromises has resulted in a complex set of provisions and an arcane nomenclature. The distinction drawn between the use of carbon sinks in developed countries under Joint Implementation and their use in developing countries under the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) is a particular source of intricacy. It is at least arguable that key elements of the compromises reached at COP-6 and COP-7 in this regard are inconsistent with the terms of the Protocol and are ultra vires the Convention on Climate Change. This is a source of both uncertainty and potential legal challenge. Not only do the recent decisions create needless complexity, they also clearly discriminate against developing nations. Among the recent political compromises is the creation of a third type of non-bankable but tradeable unit with respect to forest management, which is only available to Annex I countries. The result is an anomalous one in which a variety of otherwise equivalent carbon credits can be generated under three different regimes including one, the CDM, that is subject to an elaborate regulatory overlay that discriminates against carbon sequestration by developing countries. For example, complying developed countries can essentially self-certify sequestration projects. In contrast, projects in developing countries must obtain prior approval from a subsidiary body, the CDM Executive Board, mandated to require detailed information and impose substantive and procedural hurdles not required or imposed by its companion body, the Article 6 Supervisory Committee on Joint Implementation Projects. The parallel and related debate over the third 'flexibility' mechanism, emissions trading, compounded the complexity of an already asymmetric and bifurcated system. The new requirements devoted to 'environmental integrity' not only have raised the costs of compliance of developing country projects but also virtually ignore the fundamental principle of sustainable economic growth and development embodied in the Convention and related international agreements. The regulations for carbon sinks now being formulated at Conferences of the Parties will have a significant impact on their use worldwide. Of key importance, in addition to their successful integration of carbon sinks and emissions trading into other international treaties, is the development of practically achievable and objective standards and an efficient and transparent approval process consistent with the terms of the Convention and the Protocol. Most important of all is a rebalancing that restores the primacy of addressing climate change in the context of sustainable economic growth and development. CR *IPCC, 2000, LAND US LAND US CHAN *IPCC, 2001, CLIM CHANG 2001 MIT, V3 *UN INT LAW COMM, 1969, UN TER SER, V1155, P331 BONNIE R, 2002, PHILOS T ROY SOC A, V360, P1853 BROWN S, 2002, PHILOS T ROY SOC A, V360, P1593 HOUGHTON JT, 1990, SCI ASSESSMENT CLIMA HOUGHTON JT, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 LASOK D, 2001, LAW I EUROPEAN UNION, CH5 MACKAY L, 1995, HALSBURYS LAWS ENGLA MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 NIESTEN E, 2002, PHILOS T ROY SOC A, V360, P1875 PRANCE GT, 2002, PHILOS T ROY SOC A, V360, P1777 SAUNDERS LS, 2002, PHILOS T ROY SOC A, V360, P1763 WADE EC, 1993, CONSTITUTIOINAL ADM, P673 WERKSMAN J, 1998, RECIEL, V7, P147 NR 15 TC 2 J9 PHIL TRANS ROY SOC LONDON A BP 1827 EP 1851 PY 2002 PD AUG 15 VL 360 IS 1797 GA 582GB UT ISI:000177340500018 ER PT J AU Sathaye, J Shukla, PR Ravindranath, NH TI Climate change, sustainable development and India: Global and national concerns SO CURRENT SCIENCE LA English DT Article C1 Indian Inst Sci, Ctr Sustainable Technol, Bangalore 560012, Karnataka, India. Indian Inst Management, Ahmedabad 380015, Gujarat, India. Lawrence Berkeley Lab, Berkeley, CA USA. RP Ravindranath, NH, Indian Inst Sci, Ctr Sustainable Technol, Bangalore 560012, Karnataka, India. AB Climate change is one of the most important global environmental challenges, with implications for food production, water supply, health, energy, etc. Addressing climate change requires a good scientific understanding as well as coordinated action at national and global level. This paper addresses these challenges. Historically, the responsibility for greenhouse gas emissions' increase lies largely with the industrialized world, though the developing countries are likely to be the source of an increasing proportion of future emissions. The projected climate change under various scenarios is likely to have implications on food production, water supply, coastal settlements, forest ecosystems, health, energy security, etc. The adaptive capacity of communities likely to be impacted by climate change is low in developing countries. The efforts made by the UNFCCC and the Kyoto Protocol provisions are clearly inadequate to address the climate change challenge. The most effective way to address climate change is to adopt a sustainable development pathway by shifting to environmentally sustainable technologies and promotion of energy efficiency, renewable energy, forest conservation, reforestation, water conservation, etc. The issue of highest importance to developing countries is reducing the vulnerability of their natural and socio-economic systems to the projected climate change. India and other developing countries will face the challenge of promoting mitigation and adaptation strategies, bearing the cost of such an effort, and its implications for economic development. CR 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 *INT PAN CLIM CHAN, 2001, CLIM CHANG 2001 SYNT *MIN ENV FOR, 2004, IND IN NAT COMM UN F *PLANN COMM, 2002, 10 PLAN DOC *SP GUPT COMM REP, 2002, IND VIS 2020 *SUMM POL MAK TECH, 2001, CLIM CHANG 2001 SCI *UNDP, HUM DEV REP 2003 *UNEP, 1999, GLOB ENV OUTL *UNFCCC, 1992, UN ENV PROGR INF UN *US DOE EN INF ADM, 2005, INT EN OUTL 2005 *WCED, 1987, OUR COMM FUT *WORLD RES I, 2001, WORLD RES 2000 2001 BOLIN B, 2000, LAND USE LAND USE CH BRUCE JP, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995 CHANDLER W, 2002, CLIMATE CHANGE MITIG GALITSKY C, 2005, 3184 LBNL GARG A, 2003, CLIMATE CHANGE EC PO GOLDEMBERG J, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995 JAMES J, 2005, CURR SCI, V89, P464 JEPMA CJ, 1998, CLIMATE CHANGE POLIC KUMAR KR, 2005, CURR SCI, V90, P334 LOSKE R, 1996, SCOPE REPORT SETTING MILLS E, 2005, SCIENCE, V309, P1040 NAIR R, 2003, MITIGATION ADAPTATIO, V8, P53 NAKICENOVIC N, 2000, SPECIAL REPORT EMISS PIELKE RA, 1998, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V8, P159 RAVINDRANATH NH, 2002, CLIMATE CHANGE DEV C RAVINDRANATH NH, 2005, CURR SCI, V90, P354 SHUKLA PR, 2003, CLIMATE CHANGE INDIA SHUKLA PR, 2004, CLIMATE CHANGE ASSES WORRELL E, 2005, IN PRESS INT J GREEN NR 31 TC 1 J9 CURR SCI BP 314 EP 325 PY 2006 PD FEB 10 VL 90 IS 3 GA 014RM UT ISI:000235497600016 ER PT J AU Matarira, CH Mwamuka, FC TI Vulnerability of Zimbabwe forests to global climate change SO CLIMATE RESEARCH LA English DT Article RP Matarira, CH, ENVIRONM & REMOTE SENSING INST,SCI & IND RES & DEV CTR,POB 6640,HARARE,ZIMBABWE. AB The impacts of global climate change on forest distribution was evaluated using the Holdridge life zone and GISS general circulation model scenarios. Across Zimbabwe, 17 to 18% of the total land area is projected to shift from subtropical thorn woodland and subtropical dry forest to tropical very dry forest under the GISS scenario. The projected shift in forest distribution is attributable to a future decline in precipitation patterns and an increase in ambient temperature. CR DIXON RK, 1996, CLIMATE RES, V6, P127 HANSON DL, 1983, ANN PROBAB, V11, P609 HOLDRIDGE LR, 1967, LIFE ZONE ECOLOGY HOUGHTON JT, 1992, CLIMATE CHANGE 1992 PRENTICE IC, 1992, J BIOGEOGR, V19, P117 SINGH KD, 1993, 112 FAO FOOD AGR ORG SMITH TM, 1992, ADV ECOL RES, V22, P93 SMITH TM, 1993, WATER AIR SOIL POLL, V70, P19 UNGANAI LS, 1996, CLIMATE RES, V6, P137 NR 9 TC 0 J9 CLIMATE RES BP 135 EP 136 PY 1996 PD FEB 19 VL 6 IS 2 GA UD549 UT ISI:A1996UD54900007 ER PT J AU Norgaard, KM TI "We don't really want to know" - Environmental justice and socially organized denial of global warming in Norway SO ORGANIZATION & ENVIRONMENT LA English DT Article C1 Whitman Coll, Walla Walla, WA 99362 USA. RP Norgaard, KM, Whitman Coll, Walla Walla, WA 99362 USA. AB Global warming is the most serious environmental problem of our time and a major issue of environmental justice. Yet meager public response in the form of social movement activity, behavioral changes, or public pressure on governments is noteworthy in all Western nations. Existing research emphasizes lack of information as a limiting factor for failed public response. This explanation cannot account for the significant population who know about and express concern for global warming. Ethnographic and interview data from a rural Norwegian community indicate that nonresponse is at least partially a matter of socially organized denial. Because Norwegian economic prosperity is tied to oil production, collectively ignoring climate change maintains Norwegian economic interests. Most environmental justice research focuses on people facing disproportionate exposure to environmental problems. This project examines wealthy citizens who perpetuate global warming as they turn a blind eye. Environmental justice implications of socially organized denial are discussed for global warming and beyond. CR *IPCC, 2001, CLIM CHANG 2001 SYNT *NORW MIN PETR EN, 2002, ENV 2002 NORW PETR S *SSB, 2002, NAT RES ENV *UN DEV PROGR, 2005, HUM DEV REP AGARWAL A, 1991, GLOBAL WARMING UNEQU ANDERSON B, 1991, IMAGINED COMMUNITIES ATHANASIOU T, 2002, DEAD HEAT GLOBAL JUS BABBIE E, 1995, PRACTICE SOCIAL RES BAER P, 2000, SCIENCE, V289, P2287 BARSTAD A, 2004, STAT ANAL, V64 BEAMISH TD, 2001, ORGAN ENVIRON, V14, P5 BEAMISH TD, 2002, SILENT SPILL ORG IND BECK U, 1992, RISK SOC BELL A, 1994, DISCOURSE SOC, V5, P33 BORD RJ, 1998, CLIMATE RES, V11, P75 BOSTROM A, 1994, RISK ANAL, V14, P959 BRECHIN SR, 2003, INT J SOCIOLOGY SOCI, V23, P106 BULKELEY H, 2000, PUBLIC UNDERST SCI, V9, P313 BULLARD RD, 1990, DUMPING DIXIE RACE C COHEN SJ, 2001, STATES DENIAL KNOWIN DISPENSA JM, 2003, INT J SOCIOLOGY SOCI, V23, P74 DONOHOE M, 2003, SOC SCI MED, V56, P573 DUNLAP RE, 1998, INT SOCIOL, V13, P473 ELIASOPH N, 1998, AVOIDING POLITICS AM ERIKSEN TH, 1993, CONTINUITY CHANGE AS, P11 GECKAS V, 1995, SOCIOL PERSPECT, P41 GELBSPAN R, 1997, HEAT ON HIGH STAKES GELBSPAN R, 2004, BOILING POINT POLITI GELBSPAN R, 2005, ORGAN ENVIRON, V18, P186 GIDDENS A, 1991, MODERNITY SELF IDENT GOFFMAN E, 1959, PRESENTATION SELF EV GUHA R, 2002, GLOBAL DIALOGUE, V4, P49 HALFORD GS, 1991, INT J PSYCHOL, V26, P599 HELLEVIK O, 1999, SAMFUNNSSPEILET, V13, P53 HELLEVIK O, 2002, RALIZING RIO NORWAY, P7 HOBSBAWM E, 1983, INVENTION TRADITION HOCHSCHILD A, 1983, MANAGED HEART COMMER HOVDEN E, 2002, REALIZING RIO NORWAY, P143 HOWARTH RB, 1990, LAND ECON, V66, P1 JOHANSEN B, 2002, GLOBAL WARMING DESK KEMPTON W, 1995, ENV VALUES AM CULTUR LIFTON RJ, 1982, INDEFENSIBLE WEAPONS LIKE S, 1974, POWER RADICAL VIEW LUKE T, 2005, ORGAN ENVIRON, V18, P202 MCCRIGHT AM, 2000, SOC PROBL, V47, P499 MCCRIGHT AM, 2003, SOC PROBL, V50, P348 MCKIBBEN B, 1989, END NATURE MCKIBBEN B, 2005, ORGAN ENVIRON, V18, P182 MEIJNDERS AL, 2001, J APPL SOC PSYCHOL, V31, P754 NILSEN A, 1999, INNOVATION, V12, P175 NORGAARD KM, 2006, SOCIOL INQ, V76, P372 OCONNOR RE, 2002, SOC SCI QUART, V83, P1 OPOTOW S, 2000, J SOC ISSUES, V56, P475 PETTIT J, 2004, IDS BULL-I DEV STUD, V35, P102 READ D, 1994, RISK ANAL, V14, P971 ROBERTS JT, 2001, SOC NATUR RESOUR, V14, P501 ROSA EA, 2001, SOC NATUR RESOUR, V14, P491 ROSEBERG M, 1991, SELF SOC DYNAMIC, P123 SAAD L, 2002, GALLUP POLL 0325 SKOGEN K, 1993, SOSIOLOGISK TIDSKRIF, V9, P221 SLOVIC P, 2000, PERCEPTION RISK SMITH D, 1979, PRISM SEX ESSAYS SOC, P135 STERN PC, 1992, ANNU REV PSYCHOL, V43, P269 STERN PC, 1995, ENVIRON BEHAV, V27, P723 UNGAR S, 1992, SOCIOL QUART, V33, P483 WATSON RT, 1998, REGIONAL IMPACTS CLI, V1, P1 ZERUBAVEL E, 1997, SOCIAL MINDSCAPES IN ZERUBAVEL E, 2002, CULTURE MIND SOCIOLO, P21 ZERUBAVEL E, 2006, ELEPHANT ROOM SILENC NR 69 TC 0 J9 ORGAN ENVIRON BP 347 EP 370 PY 2006 PD SEP VL 19 IS 3 GA 085UC UT ISI:000240628900003 ER PT J AU Andreo, B Goldscheider, N Vadillo, I Vias, JM Neukum, C Sinreich, M Jimenez, P Brechenmacher, J Carrasco, F Hotzl, H Perles, MJ Zwahlen, F TI Karst groundwater protection: First application of a Pan-European Approach to vulnerability, hazard and risk mapping in the Sierra de Libar (Southern Spain) SO SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT LA English DT Article C1 Univ Malaga, Fac Sci, Grp Hydrogeol, E-29071 Malaga, Spain. Univ Neuchatel, Ctr Hydrogeol, CH-2007 Neuchatel, Switzerland. Univ Karlsruhe, Dept Appl Geol, D-76128 Karlsruhe, Germany. RP Andreo, B, Univ Malaga, Fac Sci, Grp Hydrogeol, Campus Teatinos, E-29071 Malaga, Spain. AB The European COST action 620 proposed a comprehensive approach to karst groundwater protection, comprising methods of intrinsic and specific vulnerability mapping, validation of vulnerability maps, hazard and risk mapping. This paper presents the first application of all components of this Pan-European Approach to the Sierra de Libar, a karst hydrogeology system in Andalusia, Spain. The intrinsic vulnerability maps take into account the hydrogeological characteristics of the area but are independent from specific contaminant properties. Two specific vulnerability maps were prepared for faecal coliforrns and BTEX These maps take into account the specific properties of these two groups of contaminants and their interaction with the karst hydrogeological system. The vulnerability assessment was validated by means of tracing tests, hydrological, hydrochemical and isotope methods. The hazard map shows the localization of potential contamination sources resulting from human activities, and evaluates those according to their dangerousness. The risk of groundwater contamination depends on the hazards and the vulnerability of the aquifer system. The risk map for the Sierra de Libar was thus created by overlaying the hazard and vulnerability maps. (C) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. CR *COST, 1995, 65 COST EUR COMM, P446 ADAMS B, 1992, J INST WATER ENV MAN, V6, P312 ALBINET M, 1970, B BRGM, V4, P13 ANDREO B, 2004, REV SOC GEOL ESP, V17, P187 ARNAUD C, 2001, HOUILLE BLANCHE, V1, P81 BAKALOWICZ M, 2004, VULNERABILITY RISK M, P132 BROUYERE S, 2004, VULNERABILITY RISK M, P10 CARRASCO F, 2001, REC HIDRA, V23, P381 DALY D, 2002, HYDROGEOL J, V10, P340 DALY D, 2004, VULNERABILITY RISK M, P106 DEKETELAERE D, 2004, VULNERABILITY RISK M, P86 DELANNOY JJ, RECONCIMIENTO BIOFIS DOERFLIGER N, 1998, GROUNDWATER VULNERAB DREW D, 1999, KARST HYDROGEOLOGY H, V20 ELIASSON A, 2003, ENVIRON MANAGE, V32, P589 FORD DC, 1989, KARST GEOMORPHOLOGY GERTH J, 2004, ENVIRON SCI POLLUT R, V11, P49 GOGU RC, 2000, ENVIRON GEOL, V39, P549 GOLDSCHEIDER N, 2000, Z ANGEW GEOL, V46, P157 GOLDSCHEIDER N, 2001, 7 C LIM HYDR FISS ME, P167 GOLDSCHEIDER N, 2004, VULNERABILITY RISK M, P135 GOLDSCHEIDER N, 2004, VULNERABILITY RISK M, P17 GOLDSCHEIDER N, 2004, VULNERABILITY RISK M, P5 GOLDSCHEIDER N, 2005, HYDROGEOL J, V13, P555 HOLTING B, 1995, GEOL JB C, V63, P5 HOTZL H, 2004, VULNERABILITY RISK M, P64 JIMENEZ P, 2002, 2 NERJ CAV GEOL S KA, P105 JIMENEZ P, 2003, JORN LUS ESP AG SUBT, P107 KRALIK M, 2004, VULNERABILITY RISK M, P133 MARTINALGARRA A, 1987, THESIS U GRANADA MORRIS BL, 2000, WATER SCI TECHNOL, V41, P67 MORRIS BL, 2001, J CHART INST WATER E, V15, P265 NEALE S, 2004, VULNERABILITY RISK M, P131 SANCHEZ A, 1998, UNIDADES HIDROGEOLOG SINREICH M, 2004, VULNERABILITY RISK M, P64 SINREICH M, 2004, VULNERABILITY RISK M, P67 VIAS JM, 2002, 2 NERJ CAV GEOL S KA, P75 VIAS JM, 2004, VULNERABILITY RISK M, P163 VRBA J, 1994, GUIDEBOOK MAPPING GR, V16 ZWAHLEN F, 2004, VULNERABILITY RISK M NR 40 TC 1 J9 SCI TOTAL ENVIR BP 54 EP 73 PY 2006 PD MAR 15 VL 357 IS 1-3 GA 024JD UT ISI:000236190400005 ER PT J AU Cutter, SL Mitchell, JT Scott, MS TI Revealing the vulnerability of people and places: A case study of Georgetown County, South Carolina SO ANNALS OF THE ASSOCIATION OF AMERICAN GEOGRAPHERS LA English DT Article C1 Univ S Carolina, Dept Geog, Columbia, SC 29208 USA. Bloomsburg Univ Penn, Dept Geog & Geosci, Bloomsburg, PA 17815 USA. Salisbury State Univ, Dept Geog & Geosci, Salisbury, MD 21801 USA. RP Cutter, SL, Univ S Carolina, Dept Geog, Columbia, SC 29208 USA. AB Losses from environmental hazards have escalated in the past decade, prompting a reorientation of emergency management systems away from simple postevent response. There is a noticeable change in policy, with more emphasis on loss reduction through mitigation, preparedness, and recovery programs. Effective mitigation of losses from hazards requires hazard identification, an assessment of all the hazards likely to affect a given place, and risk-reduction measures that are com patible across a multitude of hazards. The degree to which populations are vulnerable to hazards, however, is not solely dependent upon proximity to the source of the threat or the physical nature of the hazard-social factors also play a significant role in determining vulnerability. This paper presents a method for assessing vulnerability in spatial terms using both biophysical and social indicators. A geographic information system was utilized to establish areas of vulnerability based upon twelve environmental threats and eight social characteristics for our study area, Georgetown County, South Carolina. Our results suggest that the most biophysically vulnerable places do not always spatially intersect with the most vulnerable populations. This is an important finding because it reflects the likely "social costs" of hazards on the region. While economic losses might be large in areas of high biophysical risk, the resident population also may have greater safety nets (insurance, additional financial resources) to absorb and recover from the loss quickly. Conversely, it would take only a moderate hazard event to disrupt the well-being of the majority of county residents (who are more socially vulnerable, but perhaps do not reside in the highest areas of biophysical risks) and retard their longer-term recovery from disasters. This paper advances our theoretical and conceptual understanding of the spatial dimensions of vulnerability It further highlights the merger of conceptualizations of human environment relationships with geographical techniques in understanding contemporary public policy issues. CR 1995, HAZARDOUS NONHAZARDO *FEMA, 1995, NAT MIT STRAT PARTN *FEMA, 1997, MULT HAZ ID RISK ASS *FEMA, 1997, STAT CAP ASS READ CA *I CIV ENG, 1995, MEG RED VULN NAT DIS *INT FLOODPL MAN R, 1994, SHAR CHALL FLOODPL M *NRC, 1991, SAF FUT RED IMP NAT *S CAR BUDG CONTR, 1997, S CAR STAT ABSTR *S CAR SEISM NETW, 1996, S CAR EARTHQ 1698 19 *USDOT, 1993, EM RESP GUID *WACC REG PLANN DE, 1997, GEORG COUNT COMPR PL ALEXANDER D, 1991, DISASTERS, V15, P209 ALEXANDER D, 1997, DISASTERS, V21, P284 BARROWS HH, 1923, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V13, P1 BLAIKIE PM, 1987, LAND DEGRADATION BLAIKIE PM, 1994, RISK NATURAL HAZARDS, V1, P1 BOHLE HG, 1994, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V4, P37 BRAINARD J, 1996, INT J GEOGR INF SYST, V10, P831 BURTON I, 1978, ENV HAZARD, V1, P1 BURTON I, 1993, ENV HAZARD CARRARA A, 1996, GEOGRAPHICAL INFORMA CHOU YH, 1992, INT J GEOGR INF SYST, V6, P123 COVA TJ, 1997, INT J GEOGR INF SCI, V11, P763 CUTTER SL, 1989, PROF GEOGR, V41, P149 CUTTER SL, 1991, URBAN GEOGR, V12, P417 CUTTER SL, 1993, LIVING RISK GEOGRAPH CUTTER SL, 1995, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V5, P181 CUTTER SL, 1996, PROG HUM GEOG, V20, P529 CUTTER SL, 1997, HDB CONDUCTING GIS B DASGUPTA PS, 1995, SCI AM, V272, P40 DOUGLAS M, 1982, RISK CULTURE ESSAY S DOW KM, 1992, GEOFORUM, V23, P417 EDGAR W, 1998, S CAROLINA HIST EMANI S, 1993, GIS LIS 93 P ENARSON E, 1998, GENDERED TERRAIN DIS FOTHERGILL A, 1996, INT J MASS EMERGENCI, V14, P33 HEWITT K, 1971, HAZARDOUSNESS PLACE HEWITT K, 1983, INTERPRETATIONS CALA HEWITT K, 1997, REGIONS RISK GEOGRAP, V1, P1 HODGSON ME, 1992, GEOLNFOSYSTEMS, V2, P40 JOHNSON BB, 1989, SOCIAL CULTURAL CONS JOHNSON J, 1986, CITIES, V3, P148 JONES AC, 1995, INNOVATIONS GIS, V2, P223 KASPERSON JX, 1995, REGIONS RISK, V1, P1 KASPERSON RE, 1988, RISK ANAL, V8, P177 KATES R, 1985, PERILOUS PROGR MANAG KATES R, 1986, GEOGRAPHY RESOURCES, V1 KATES RW, 1983, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V80, P7027 KRIMSKY S, 1992, SOCIAL THEORY RISK LINDELL MK, 1997, J MASS EMERGENCIES D, V15, P323 LIVERMAN DM, 1990, UNDERSTANDING GLOBAL, V1, P27 LIVERMAN DM, 1990, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V80, P49 LOWRY JH, 1995, PHOTOGRAMM ENG REM S, V61, P1347 MARCELLO B, 1995, BIS WORLD, V8, P70 MCMASTER RB, 1988, P 3 INT S SPAT DAT H, P143 MILETI D, 1999, DESIGNING FUTURE DIS MITCHELL JK, 1989, GEOGR REV, V79, P91 MITCHELL JK, 1998, LONG ROAD RECOVERY C MITCHELL JT, 1997, GIS LIS 97 P, P563 MONMONIER M, 1997, CARTOGRAPHIES DANGER OBRIEN P, 1992, INT J MASS EMERGENCI, V10, P71 OKEEFE P, 1976, NATURE, V260, P566 OLIVERSMITH A, 1986, NATURAL DISASTERS CU, V36, P1 PALM R, 1990, NATURAL HAZARDS INTE PALM R, 1998, ILLUSIONS SAFETY CUL PALMER W, 1965, METEOROLOGICAL DROUG PERRY RW, 1991, INT J MASS EMERGENCI, V9, P47 PLATT R, 1995, DISASTERS, V15, P172 PULIDO L, 2000, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V90, P12 QUARANTELLI EL, 1988, INT J MASS EMERGENCI, V5, P285 RAMSEY EW, 1998, FOREST IMPACT ESTIMA ROGERS GC, 1970, HIST GEORGETOWN COUN SCHNEIDER SK, 1995, FLIRTING DISASTER PU SORENSEN JH, 1992, J HAZARD MATER, V30, P223 SORENSON JH, 1987, IMPACTS HAZARDOUS TE SUSMAN P, 1983, INTERPRETATIONS CALA, P263 TOBIN G, 1997, NATURAL HAZARDS EXPL TORRY WI, 1979, CAN GEOGR, V23, P368 WADGE G, 1999, ENV MODELLING GIS, P332 WATTS MJ, 1983, INTERPRETATIONS CALA, P231 WHITE GF, 1945, HHUMAN ADJUSTMENTS F WHITE GF, 1964, CHOICE ADJUSTMENTS F WHITE GF, 1975, ASSESSMENT RES NATUR, V1, P1 WILHITE D, 1987, PLANNING DROUGHT RED WINBERRY J, 1996, SNAPSHOTS CAROLINAS, P11 YARNAL B, 1994, DISASTERS, V8, P95 NR 86 TC 16 J9 ANN ASSN AMER GEOGR BP 713 EP 737 PY 2000 PD DEC VL 90 IS 4 GA 389UU UT ISI:000166257700004 ER PT J AU Pfister, C Brazdil, R TI Social vulnerability to climate in the "Little Ice Age": an example from Central Europe in the early 1770s SO CLIMATE OF THE PAST LA English DT Article C1 Univ Bern, Hist Inst, NCCR Climate, CH-3000 Bern, Switzerland. Masaryk Univ, Inst Geog, CZ-61137 Brno, Czech Republic. RP Pfister, C, Univ Bern, Hist Inst, NCCR Climate, CH-3000 Bern, Switzerland. AB The paper is oriented on social vulnerability to climate in Switzerland and in the Czech Lands during the early 1770s. Documentary sources of climate related to man-made archives are discussed. Methods of temperature and precipitation reconstruction based on this evidence as well as climate impact analyses are presented. Modelling of Little Ice Age-type Impacts (LIATIMP) is applied to highlight climate impacts during the period 1750-1800 in the Swiss Plateau and in the Czech Lands. LIATIMP are defined as adverse climate situations affecting agricultural production, mainly in terms of rainy autumns, cold springs and rainy harvest-periods. The most adverse weather patterns according to this model occurred from 1769 to 1771 causing two, in the case of the Czech Lands even three successive harvest failures. The paper addresses the social and economic consequences of this accumulation of climatic stress and explores how the authorities and the victims dealt with this situation. CR ABEL W, 1972, MASSENARMUT HUNGERKR BANKOFF G, 2003, CULTURES DISASTER SO BARRIENDOS M, 2005, KULTURELLE KONSEQUEN, P379 BAUERNFEIND W, 1993, MATERIELLE GRUNDSTRU BAUERNFEIND W, 1999, CLIMATIC VARIABILITY, P303 BIELMANN J, 1972, LEBENSVERHALTNISSE U BOX GEP, 1970, TIME SERIES ANAL FOR BOX GEP, 1975, J AM STAT ASSOC, V70, P70 BRADLEY RS, 1999, PALEOCLIMATOLOGY REC BRANDENBERGER A, 2004, AUSBRUCH MALTHUSIANI BRAZDIL R, 2000, HIST WEATHER CLIMATE, V4 BRAZDIL R, 2000, I GEOGRAFII UJ PRACE, V108, P19 BRAZDIL R, 2001, OSTERREICHISCHE Z GE, V2, P44 BRAZDIL R, 2003, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V60, P297 BRAZDIL R, 2005, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V70, P363 BROOKS KN, 2003, HYDROLOGY MANAGEMENT BUCHER S, 1974, BEVOLKERUNG WIRTSCHA CASTY C, 2005, INT J CLIMATOL, V25, P1855 CHUINE I, 2004, NATURE, V432, P289 FIALOVA L, 1996, DEJINY OBYVATELSTVA FLUCKIGERSTREBE.E, 2000, THESIS BERN FOGEL RW, 1992, NUTR POVERTY, P243 GROVE JM, 2001, HIST CLIMATE MEMORIE, P153 HANUS H, 1978, ERTRAGSVORHERSAGE WI HARINGTON CR, 1992, YEAR SUMMER WORLD CL HOLZHAUSER H, 1988, ALPEN, V64, P129 HOLZHAUSER H, 2002, SCHWEIZERISCHE Z FOR, V15, P17 HOLZHAUSER H, 2005, HOLOCENE, V15, P789 JARRAUD M, 2005, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V70, P5 JELECEK L, 1995, SBORNIK CESKE GEOGRA, V100, P276 KAPLAN SL, 1976, BREAD POLITICS POLIT KATES RW, 1985, CLIMATE IMPACT ASSES, P3 LADURIE EL, 1972, PEASANT STUDIES, V1, P60 LANDSTEINER E, 2005, KULTURELLE KONSEQUEN, P87 LUHMANN N, 1986, OKOLOGISCHE KOMMUNIK LUTERBACHER J, 2000, INT J CLIMATOL, V20, P1049 LUTERBACHER J, 2002, CLIM DYNAM, V18, P545 LUTERBACHER J, 2004, SCIENCE, V303, P1499 MURTON B, 2000, CAMBRIDGE WORLD HIST, V2, P1411 NEWMAN LF, 1990, HUNGER HIST FOOD SHO OLIVERSMITH A, 2004, MAPPING VULNERABILIT, P10 PAULING A, 2003, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V30, P15 PAULING A, 2006, CLIM DYNAM, V26, P387 PELLING M, 2003, NATURAL DISASTERS DE PERSSON KG, 1999, GRAIN MARKETS EUROPE PFISTER C, 1975, THESIS LANG PFISTER C, 1984, KLIMAGESCHICHTE SCHW PFISTER C, 1994, CLIMATIC TRENDS ANOM, P151 PFISTER C, 1995, STROM MODERNISIERUNG PFISTER C, 1998, HIST STAT ATLAS KANT PFISTER C, 1998, RAUM ZEITLICHE REKON PFISTER C, 1999, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V43, P5 PFISTER C, 1999, WETTERNACHHERSAGE 50 PFISTER C, 2001, EOS T AM GEOPHYS UN, V82, P248 PFISTER C, 2001, OSTERREICHISCHE Z GE, V12, P7 PFISTER C, 2005, KULTURELLE KONSEQUEN, P31 PFISTER C, 2006, IN PRESS INTEGRATED PIERVITALI E, 2001, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V49, P225 POST JD, 1990, HUNGER HIST FOOD SHO, P241 REHOROVSKY JM, 1904, CESTOPIS CISARE JOSE, V2, P11 ROUBIK F, 1926, CASOPIS PRO DEJINY V, V13, P102 RUESCH H, 1979, LEBENSVERHALTNISSE E SCHURMANN M, 1974, THESIS BASEL SLONOSKY VC, 2001, INT J CLIMATOL, V21, P285 TITOW JZ, 1960, ECON HIST REV, P360 TITOW JZ, 1970, ANN ESC, P312 VANENGELEN AFV, 2001, HIST CLIMATE MEMORIE, P101 WANG RS, 1991, INT J CLIMATOL, V11, P381 WANNER H, 2000, KLIMAWANDEL SCHWEIZE, P73 WATTS MJ, 1993, PROG HUM GEOG, V17, P43 WEINZIERLFISCHE.E, 1954, MITTEILUNGEN OSTERRE, V7, P478 XOPLAKI E, 2005, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V32 NR 72 TC 0 J9 CLIM PAST BP 115 EP 129 PY 2006 VL 2 IS 2 GA 140LK UT ISI:000244506500005 ER PT J AU Hall, JW Sayers, PB Dawson, RJ TI National-scale assessment of current and future flood risk in England and Wales SO NATURAL HAZARDS LA English DT Article C1 Univ Newcastle Upon Tyne, Sch Civil Engn & Geosci, Newcastle Upon Tyne NE1 7RU, Tyne & Wear, England. HR Wallingford, Wallingford OX10 8BA, Oxon, England. Univ Bristol, Dept Civil Engn, Bristol BS8 1TR, Avon, England. RP Hall, JW, Univ Newcastle Upon Tyne, Sch Civil Engn & Geosci, Cassie Bldg, Newcastle Upon Tyne NE1 7RU, Tyne & Wear, England. AB In recent years, through the availability of remotely sensed data and other national datasets, it has become possible to conduct national-scale flood risk assessment in England and Wales. The results of this type of risk analysis can be used to inform policy-making and prioritisation of resources for flood management. It can form the starting point for more detailed strategic and local-scale flood risk assessments. The national-scale risk assessment methodology outlined in this paper makes use of information on the location, standard of protection and condition of flood defences in England and Wales, together with datasets of floodplain extent, topography, occupancy and asset values. The flood risk assessment was applied to all of England and Wales in 2002 at which point the expected annual damage from flooding was estimated to be approximately (sic)1 billion. This figure is comparable with records of recent flood damage. The methodology has subsequently been applied to examine the effects of climate and socio-economic change 50 and 80 years in the future. The analysis predicts increasing flood risk unless current flood management policies, practices and investment levels are changed - up to 20-fold increase in real terms economic risk by the 2080s in the scenario with highest economic growth. The increase is attributable primarily to a combination of climate change (in particular sea level rise and increasing precipitation in parts of the UK) and increasing economic vulnerability. CR *DTI, 2003, FOR FUT 2020 REV SCE *HR WALL, 2000, TR107 HR WALL *HR WALL, 2003, EX4722 HR WALL *IPCC, 2000, SPEC REP EM SCEN SRE *ROYAL SOC, 1992, RISK AN PERC MAN *SPRU CSERGE CRU P, 1999, SOC FUT CLIM IMP ASS *UKCIP, 2001, SOC SCEN CLIM CHANG HALL JW, 2003, P I CIVIL ENG-WATER, V156, P235 HULME M, 2002, UKCIP02 U E ANGL SCH PENNINGROWSELL EC, 2003, AUTUMN 2000 FLOODS E PENNINGROWSELL EC, 2003, BENEFITS FLOOD COAST TAPSELL SM, 2002, PHILOS T ROY SOC A, V360, P1511 NR 12 TC 0 J9 NATURAL HAZARDS BP 147 EP 164 PY 2005 PD SEP VL 36 IS 1-2 GA 943PF UT ISI:000230365500009 ER PT J AU Lindley, SJ Handley, JF Theuray, N Peet, E Mcevoy, D TI Adaptation strategies for climate change in the urban environment: Assessing climate change related risk in UK urban areas SO JOURNAL OF RISK RESEARCH LA English DT Article C1 Univ Manchester, Sch Environm & Dev Geog, Ctr Urban & Reg Ecol, Manchester M13 9PL, Lancs, England. RP Lindley, SJ, Univ Manchester, Sch Environm & Dev Geog, Ctr Urban & Reg Ecol, Manchester M13 9PL, Lancs, England. AB This paper presents a conurbation-scale risk assessment methodology which aims to provide a screening tool to assist with planning for climate change-related risks in the urban environment. This work has been undertaken as part of a wider, interdisciplinary project, Adaptation Strategies for Climate Change in the Urban Environment (ASCCUE). The main focus of ASCCUE is to help improve understanding of the consequences of climate change for urban areas and how these, and the neighbourhoods within them, can best be adapted. Adaptation options will be explored in the context of both conurbation-scale strategic planning and neighbourhood-level urban design. The paper conveys some of the initial outputs from the ASCCUE project. It firstly presents the overarching risk assessment framework, before outlining the GIS-based elements of the methodology. This draws on a characterisation of the urban area into distinctive "urban morphology units'' as the spatial framework for the analytical work. An example of heat related risk is given by way of an illustrative application of the methodology. The paper concludes with a consideration of the limitations of the approach and how some of these will be tackled as part of the ongoing work programme. CR *BETWIXT, 2004, BETWIXT PROJ OV *DEP HLTH, 2001, HLTH EFF CLIM CHANG *DEP HLTH, 2004, NHS HEATW PLANT ENGL *ENV AG, 2006, STRAT FLOOD RISK MAN *IPCC, 2001, IPCC CLIM CHANG 2001 *LAND US CONS, 1993, TREES TOWNS *NZ CLIM CHANG OFF, 2004, CLIM CHANG EFF IMP A *PSI, 2005, OV BESEECH PROJ *TEP, 2004, DER UND NEGL DUN SUR *UKCIP, 2001, SOC EC SCEN CLIM CHA *UKCIP, 2005, OV BKCC RES PROGR ADGER WN, 2005, CR GEOSCI, V337, P399 ANDERSEN MC, 2004, RISK ANAL, V24, P1231 BARTELS CJ, 1998, J HAZARD MATER, V61, P115 BENNION H, 2005, SCI TOTAL ENVIRON, V3441, P259 BIEN JD, 2004, ENVIRON MODEL ASSESS, V9, P221 BLONG R, 2003, NAT HAZARDS, V29, P57 BOHM G, 2005, J RISK RES, V8, P461 BROOKES N, 2003, VULNERABILITY RISK A CHEN KP, 2004, APPL GEOGR, V24, P97 CLARKE S, 2002, LONDONS WARMING IMPA COVA TJ, 1999, GEOGRAPHICAL INFORMA, P845 CRICHTON D, 2001, IMPLICATION CLIMATE DLUGOLECKI A, 2004, CHANGING CLIMATE INS GOODESS CM, IN PRESS ANAL MAXIMU GRANGER K, 2001, CCOP TECHNICAL B, V320, P165 HANDLEY J, 2000, RED ROSE FOREST URBA HEUVELINK GBM, 1908, ERROR PROPAGATION EN HULME M, 2002, CLIMATE CHANGE SCENA JONES RN, 2001, NAT HAZARDS, V23, P197 KLOSTERMAN RE, 1997, J PLAN EDUC RES, V17, P45 LEMPERT R, 2004, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V65, P1 LINDLEY SJ, 2004, SCI TOTAL ENVIRON, V334, P307 MEDYCKYJSCOTT D, 1994, VISUALISATION GEOGRA, P200 MESEV TV, 1995, ENVIRON PLANN A, V27, P759 MICHELOZZI P, 2004, EPIDEMIOLOGY, V15, S102 MONMONIER M, 1991, HOW LIE MAPS NLUD, 2005, NAT LAND US DAT WEBS OBRIEN KL, 2004, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V64, P193 OPENSHAW S, 1984, CONCEPTS TECHNIQUES, V38 PALUTIKOF JP, 2004, CLIMATE RES, V26, P43 PARSON EA, 2003, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V57, P9 PATT A, 2005, CR GEOSCI, V337, P411 PAULEIT S, 2000, LANDSCAPE URBAN PLAN, V52, P1 RYDIN Y, 2004, PLANNING SUSTAINABIL SALVI O, 2004, J RISK RES, V7, P599 SCHLUMPF C, 2001, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V51, P199 SNARY C, 2004, URBAN STUD, V41, P33 SUDDLE S, 2005, J HAZARD MATER, V123, P35 WATTS M, 2004, CRU DAILY WEATHER GE WHITFORD V, 2001, LANDSCAPE URBAN PLAN, V57, P91 WILBY RL, 2003, WEATHER, V58, P251 WILLOWS RI, 2003, CLIMATE ADAPTATION R ZWICK MM, 2005, J RISK RES, V8, P481 NR 54 TC 1 J9 J RISK RES BP 543 EP 568 PY 2006 PD JUL VL 9 IS 5 GA 074MI UT ISI:000239816100007 ER PT J AU Zhang, QF Justice, CO Jiang, MX Brunner, J Wilkie, DS TI A gis-based assessment on the vulnerability and future extent of the tropical forests of the Congo Basin SO ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING AND ASSESSMENT LA English DT Article C1 Univ Virginia, Dept Environm Sci, Charlottesville, VA 22903 USA. Univ Maryland, Dept Geog, College Pk, MD 20742 USA. Chinese Acad Sci, Wuhan Bot Garden, Ctr Ecosyst Studies, Wuhan 430074, Peoples R China. World Resources Inst, Washington, DC 20006 USA. RP Zhang, QF, Univ Virginia, Dept Environm Sci, Clark Hall, Charlottesville, VA 22903 USA. AB This paper examines the vulnerability of the Congo Basin's forests through a GIS platform, taking into consideration the variables of population growth, road density, logging concession, and forest fragmentation. The assessment indicates that the forests will continue to shrink towards the interior over the next 50 years. Current contiguous forests will fragment into three large blocks, including one on the west side of the Congo River and two in the Democratic Republic of Congo, while a large number of small forest patches will retain in the periphery of the large blocks. The study shows that integrated GIS assessment of the driving forces of tropical deforestation can shed light on the future forest distribution and provide a tool to address the broader implications of social and economic development for tropical deforestation. CR *FAO, 1993, FOR RES ASS 1990 TRO *FAO, 1996, FOR RES ASS 1990 SUR *UN, 1998, UN PUBL *WRI, 1995, AFR DAT SAMPL CD *WRI, 2000, 1 LOOK LOGG GAB *WRI, 2000, OV LOGG CAM ACHARD F, 1998, TREES PUBL SERIES B ACHARD F, 2002, SCIENCE, V297, P999 ALLEN JC, 1985, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V75, P63 BARNES RFW, 1990, AFR J ECOL, V28, P161 BOAHENE K, 1998, LAND DEGRAD DEV, V9, P247 BUNTING AH, 1984, P INT WORKSH SHIFT C CHOMITZ KM, 1996, WORLD BANK ECON REV, V10, P487 FLENLEY JR, 1979, EQUATORIAL RAIN FORE GASTON G, 1998, GLOB CHANGE BIOL, V4, P97 GEIST H, 2001, LUCC REPORT SERIES, V4 HALL CAS, 1995, J BIOGEOGR, V22, P753 JUSTICE C, 2001, CLIMATE RES, V17, P229 KAIMOWITZ D, 1998, EC MODELS TROPICAL D LAMBIN EF, 1997, INT J REMOTE SENS, V18, P3551 LAURANCE WF, 1997, SCIENCE, V278, P1117 LIU DS, 1993, FOREST ECOL MANAG, V57, P1 LUDEKE AK, 1990, J ENVIRON MANAGE, V31, P247 MAMINGI N, 1996, SPATIAL PATTERNS DEF MAYAUX P, 1996, TREES SERIES B, V4 MERTENS B, 1997, APPL GEOGR, V17, P143 MERTENS B, 2000, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V90, P467 MYERS N, 1989, DEFORESTATION RATES PONTIUS RG, 2001, AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON, V85, P191 SAYER JA, 1992, CONSERVATION ATLAS T SKOLE D, 1993, SCIENCE, V260, P1905 URBAN FS, 1988, WORLD POPULATION COU WILKIE DS, 1988, ECOL MODEL, V41, P307 WILKIE DS, 2001, BIODIVERS CONSERV, V10, P691 WILKINSON CR, 1992, P 7 INT COR REEF S G, V1, P11 ZHANG K, 2001, MELB STU C INT LAW, V1, P83 ZHANG Q, 2001, AMBIO, V30, P351 ZHANG QF, 2002, AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON, V90, P203 NR 38 TC 0 J9 ENVIRON MONIT ASSESS BP 107 EP 121 PY 2006 PD MAR VL 114 IS 1-3 GA 033JY UT ISI:000236844500007 ER PT J AU Castillo, A Torres, A Velazquez, A Bocco, G TI The use of ecological science by rural producers: A case study in Mexico SO ECOLOGICAL APPLICATIONS LA English DT Article C1 Univ Nacl Autonoma Mexico, Ctr Invest Ecosistemas, Morelia 58190, Michoacan, Mexico. Univ Nacl Autonoma Mexico, Inst Geog, Morelia 58000, Michoacan, Mexico. RP Castillo, A, Univ Nacl Autonoma Mexico, Ctr Invest Ecosistemas, Campus Morelia,Apartado Postal 27-3, Morelia 58190, Michoacan, Mexico. AB The role of ecological science in promoting sound environmental decisions has concerned ecologists worldwide and it has been stressed that the application of ecological knowledge requires new interactive and participatory forms of research, as well as sound partnerships between ecologists and land managers. However, concrete examples of ecological science as part of rural decision making have rarely been examined, especially in intertropical countries. We analyzed interactions between ecological scientists from the National Autonomous University of Mexico (UNAM) and a rural indigenous community involved in forest management in Central-Western Mexico. Using qualitative research methods (such as observing participants, conducting interviews; generally focusing on the meanings that social actors give to phenomena), we compared the perspectives of the academic and community sectors in relation to benefits, products, problems, and obstacles faced when conducting integrative forest management. The research showed the relevance of rural communities demanding scientific information for ecosystem management and of academic institutions accepting to respond to these demands. Participatory approaches and continuous communication between sectors were essential for establishing trust and commitment for everyone involved. The obstacles found were related to an academic institution's inability to support such an experience and to accept capacity building of rural managers as part of its scientific mission. We concluded that applied ecological science in developing countries, such as Mexico, should regard rural communities as key ecosystem managers and should respond-to their needs and demands in order to convert pure scientific findings into wise environmental decisions. 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AB Research during the past decade in the wet tropics region of Queensland has yielded important insights into the responses of rainforest mammals to habitat fragmentation. These findings are synthesised by assessing key processes in fragmented landscapes, such as nonrandom deforestation patterns, edge effects, dramatic shifts in predator assemblages, and the kinetics of local extinction. Studies aimed at identifying ecological traits that affect the vulnerability of mammal populations in fragmented forests are also reviewed. Collectively, these investigations suggest that the composition and dynamics of fragment biotas are strongly influenced by edge effects and by the matrix of modified habitats surrounding fragments. Some implications of these findings for the management of fragmented landscapes are considered. 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Stanford Univ, Stanford, CA 94305 USA. RP Kahn, ME, Tufts Univ, Medford, MA 02155 USA. AB Using a new data set on annual deaths from disasters in 73 nations from 1980 to 2002, this paper tests several hypotheses concerning natural-disaster mitigation. Though richer nations do not experience fewer natural disasters than poorer nations, richer nations do suffer less death from disaster. Economic development provides implicit insurance against nature's shocks. Democracies and nations with higher-quality institutions suffer less death from natural disaster. Because climate change is expected to increase the frequency of natural disasters such as floods, these results have implications for the incidence of global warming. CR *EM DAT, OFDA CRED INT DIS DA ACEMOGLU D, 2001, AM ECON REV, V91, P1369 ACEMOGLU D, 2002, Q J ECON, V117, P1231 ALESINA A, 1999, Q J ECON, V114, P1243 ALESINA A, 2000, Q J ECON, V115, P847 ALESINA A, 2001, BROOKINGS PAPERS EC, V2, P187 ALESINA A, 2003, J ECON GROWTH, V8, P155 ANNAN KA, 1999, INT HERALD TRIB 0910 ATHEY S, 2002, RAND J ECON, V33, P399 BESLEY T, 2002, Q J ECON, V117, P1415 BRESNAHAN BW, 1997, LAND ECON, V73, P340 BROOKSHIRE DS, 1985, J POLIT ECON, V93, P369 COHEN L, 1981, PUBLIC POLICY, V29, P1 COSTA DL, 2003, PERSPECTIVES POLITIC, V1, P103 COSTA DL, 2004, J RISK UNCERTAINTY, V29, P159 EASTERLY W, 2002, 9106 NBER GALLUP JL, 1999, INT REGIONAL SCI REV, V22, P179 GARRETT TA, 2003, ECON INQ, V41, P496 HALLSTROM D, 2003, UNPUB MARKET RESPONS HAMMITT J, 2000, UNPUB SURVIVAL IS LU HARBAUGH WT, 2002, REV ECON STAT, V84, P541 HESTON A, 2002, PENN WORLD TABLES VE KAUFMANN D, 2003, GOVT MATTERS, V3 KELLER W, 2002, REV ECON STAT, V84, P691 KLINENBERG E, 2002, HEAT WAVE SOCIAL AUT KNACK S, 1997, Q J ECON, V112, P1251 LAPORTA R, 1999, J LAW ECON ORGAN, V15, P222 LUTTMER EFF, 2001, J POLIT ECON, V109, P500 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 PRESTEMON J, 2002, AM J AGR ECON, V82, P145 RODRIK D, 2002, W9305 NBER SCHMALENSEE R, 1998, REV ECON STAT, V80, P15 SHEETS B, 2001, HURRICANE WATCH FORE SKIDMORE M, 2002, ECON INQ, V40, P664 WALKER J, 2002, WORLD DISASTER REPOR WILLIS K, 1997, J HOUSING RES, V8, P125 NR 36 TC 3 J9 REV ECON STATIST BP 271 EP 284 PY 2005 PD MAY VL 87 IS 2 GA 930DL UT ISI:000229395900006 ER PT J AU Conde, C Ferrer, F Orozco, S TI Climate change and climate variability impacts on rainfed agricultural activities and possible adaptation measures. A Mexican case study SO ATMOSFERA LA English DT Article C1 Univ Nacl Autonoma Mexico, Ctr Ciencias Atmosfera, Mexico City 04510, DF, Mexico. Univ Autonoma Tlaxcala, Escuela Agrobiol, Tlaxcala, Mexico. RP Conde, C, Univ Nacl Autonoma Mexico, Ctr Ciencias Atmosfera, Circuito Exterior,Ciudad Univ, Mexico City 04510, DF, Mexico. AB Climate extreme events (such as those associated to strong El Nino events) highly affect Mexican agriculture, since more than sixty percent of it is rainfed. The basic crop cultivated is maize, which is still the main source of nutrients for a large portion of the rural population in the country. Within the project Capacity Building for Stage II Adaptation to Climate Change in Central America, Mexico and Cuba, we analyze the strategies developed by maize producers in the central region of the country to cope with climatic adverse events. Impact on rainfed maize due to climate variability and climate change conditions are studied using a crop simulation model. Several adaptation measures can be evaluated using that model. However, the effect of other stressors must be considered in an assessment of the adaptive capacity of small farmers to climate variability and change. Key stakeholders' 'nvolvement in the region helped us to decide which of the adaptive measures could be viable under the current conditions and under future climatic conditions. The construction of greenhouses, the use of compost, and dripping irrigation, were some of the techniques selected with the participation of the stakeholders. The enthusiastic responses to these measures allow us to consider that they can prevail in the future, under climate change conditions. However, the adaptation to climate change includes -besides the stated techniques- the generation of the capacities to cope with climatic adverse events, that is, to enhance the adaptive capacities to climate change among the key stakeholders. CR *BANC MEX, 2005, INF AN 2004 CUADR A *CONAPO, 2004, POBL NAC MEX RES EST *IPCC WGI, 2001, SUMM POL MAK REP WOR *PLAN EST DES, 2005, PROGR ESTR DES RUR *SEMARNAT, 1996, EST SEL AG BAL AG SU *SEMARNAT, 2000, COMP EST AMB ALTIERI MA, 1987, HUM ECOL, V15, P189 APPENDINI K, 2001, MILPA TORTIBONOS RES CONDE C, 1998, GEOUNAM, V51, P26 CONDE C, 1999, 11 C APPL MET DALL T, P101 CONDE C, 1999, IMPACTOS EL NINO MEX, P103 CONDE C, 2003, CLIMATIC CHANGE ADAP, P241 CONDE C, 2003, OP M HUM DIM GLOB EN CONDE C, 2003, THESIS UNAM CONDE C, 2005, ADAPTATION POLICY FR, P47 CONDE C, 2005, ADAPTATION POLICY FR, P49 CONDE C, 2005, IN PRESS SYNTHESIS V CORTES S, 2004, CRITERIO, V2 FERRER PRM, 1999, THESIS UNAM FLORESCANO E, 1995, BREVE HIST SEQUIA ME GARCIAACOSTA V, 2003, DESASTRES AGRICOLAS, V1 GAY C, 2000, MEXICO UNA VISION HA GAY G, 2003, EVALUACION EXTERNA 2 JAUREGUI E, 1995, ERKUNDE, V49, P39 JONES CA, 1986, CERES MAIZE SIMULATI LIM B, 2004, ADAPTATION POLICY FR LIVERMAN DM, 1990, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V1, P49 MAGANA V, 1998, EL NINO NINA ESTADO MAGANA V, 1999, IMPACTOS EL NINO MEX NADAL A, 2000, ENV SOCIAL IMPACTS E NADAL A, 2000, MAIZ MEXICO ALGUNAS NAKICENOVIC N, 2000, SPECIAL REPORT EMISS OROZCO S, 2000, THESIS UNAM MEXICO PEREZ M, 2005, JORNADA MEXICO 0301 ZIERVOGEL G, 2005, IN PRESS VULNERABILI NR 35 TC 0 J9 ATMOSFERA BP 181 EP 194 PY 2006 PD JUL 1 VL 19 IS 3 GA 066VL UT ISI:000239258300003 ER PT J AU Jacobsen, K TI Livelihoods in conflict - The pursuit of livelihoods by refugees and the impact on the human security of host communities SO INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION LA English DT Article C1 Tufts Univ, Feinstein Int Famine Ctr, Medford, MA 02155 USA. RP Jacobsen, K, Tufts Univ, Feinstein Int Famine Ctr, Medford, MA 02155 USA. AB This paper explores how long-term refugees pursue livelihoods, the impact this pursuit has on the human security of conflict-affected communities, and the ways in which international assistance can help. Refugees' pursuit of livelihoods can increase human security because economic activities help to recreate social and economic interdependence within and between communities, and can restore social networks based on the exchange of labour, assets and food. When refugees are allowed to gain access to resources and freedom of movement, and can work alongside their hosts to pursue productive lives, they would be less dependent on aid and better able to overcome the sources of tension and conflict in their host communities. The paper identifies how humanitarian programmes working with national governments can increase economic security and shore up the respective rights of both refugees and their host communities. Today, relief interventions are no longer expected solely to save lives in the short term, but also to lay the foundation for future development and to promote conflict resolution. CR *DFID, 2000, REP INT AG EXP LESS *FIFC, 2002, S NUTR CONT CRIS CON *OCHADRC, 2001, CHRON HUM CRIS *UNHCR UG, 1996, REF NEWSL, V2 *UNHCR UG, 1999, SELF REL REF HOST AR ANDERSON M, 1999, DO NO HARM AID CAN A ARMSTRONG A, 1988, J REFUGEE STUDIES, V1, P57 ARTZ DE, 1997, REFUGEES CITIZENSHIP BAKEWELL O, 2000, J REFUGEE STUDIES, V13, P356 BASCOM J, 1998, LOSING PLACE REFUGEE BASOK T, 1993, KEEPING HEADS OVER W BLACK R, 1996, 2 CFCE U SUSS SCH AF BLACK R, 1999, END REFUGEE CYCLE RE BOURQUE A, 2001, EUROPEAN UNIONS POLI CERNEA M, 1996, IMPOVERISHMENT RISKS CRISP J, 2000, REFUGEE STUDIES Q, V19, P54 CRISP J, 2001, 43 UNHCR DALEY P, 1993, GEOGRAPHY REFUGEES P DAVIS L, 1988, INDOCHINESE REFUGEES DOYLE K, 1998, MICROFINANCE WAKE CO ELLIS F, 1998, J DEV STUD, V35, P1 FERRIS E, 1987, CENTRAL AM REFUGEES GASARASI CP, 1987, REFUGEES THIRD WORLD GASARASI CP, 1990, J REFUGEE STUDIES, V3, P88 HANSEN A, 2000, RM ROGERS SEMINAR SE HYNDMAN J, 1998, INT J REFUGEE LAW, V10 JACOBSEN K, 1993, INT MIGRATION SECURI JACOBSEN K, 1997, J REFUGEE STUDIES, V10, P19 JACOBSEN K, 2000, REFUGEE STUDIES Q, V19 JACOBSEN K, 2001, 45 UNHCR KIBREAB G, 1996, PEOPLE EDGE HORN DIS KIBREAB G, 2001, 200123 UNU WIDER KIBREAB G, 2001, DISPLACEMENT LOSS CO KOK W, 1989, J REFUGEE STUDIES, V2, P419 KUHLMAN T, 1990, BURDEN BOON STUDY ER LANDAU L, 2001, 40 UNHCR LASSAILLYJACOB V, 1996, REC LIV NEW APPRO RE LAUTZE S, 1997, SAVING LIVES LIVELIH NAGARAJAN G, 1999, DEV FINANCIAL I CONF OLWIG KF, 1999, MOBILE LIVELIHOODS M PEPPIAT D, 2001, 35 HUM PRACT NETW PA PONGSAPIT A, 1988, INDOCHINESE REFUGEES RUTINWA B, 1999, REFUGEE PROTECTION I SCOONES I, 1998, 72 IDS SPERL S, 2000, 22 UNCHR WEISS T, 1996, HUMANITARIAN CHALLEN ZETTER R, 1995, 19 RPN NR 47 TC 0 J9 INT MIGR BP 95 EP 123 PY 2002 VL 40 IS 5 GA 632GY UT ISI:000180216600004 ER PT J AU Schaberg, RH Abt, RC TI Vulnerability of Mid-Atlantic forested watersheds to timber harvest disturbance SO ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING AND ASSESSMENT LA English DT Article C1 Duke Univ, Nicholas Sch Environm & Earth Sci, Durham, NC 27708 USA. N Carolina State Univ, Dept Forestry, Raleigh, NC 27695 USA. RP Schaberg, RH, Duke Univ, Nicholas Sch Environm & Earth Sci, Box 90328, Durham, NC 27708 USA. AB Forested watersheds of the Mid-Atlantic Region are an important economic resource. They are also critical for maintaining water quality, sustaining important ecological services, and providing habitat to many animal and plant species of conservation concern. These forests are Vulnerable to disturbance and fragmentation from changing patterns of land use in the Mid-Atlantic Region, and from harvests of commercially mature and relatively inexpensive timber. The U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service (USDA-FS) Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) compiles data on forest condition by state and county. We have transformed these FIA data to a U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) 6-digit hydrologic unit code (HUC 6) watershed base, and projected trends in timber growth, inventory, and harvest to 2025 using a timber economics forecasting model (SRTS). We consider forest sustainability from the perspective of timber production, and from the perspective of landscape stability important to conservation values. Simulation data is combined with FIA planted pine acreage data to form a more complete picture of forest extent, composition, and silvicultural practice. Early recognition of prevailing economic trends which encourage the fragmentation of mature forests due to increasing timber harvests may provide managers and policy makers with a planning tool to mitigate undesirable impacts. CR *COMM VI, 2000, 730 HJR COMM VIRG *ESRI, 2002, ARCGIS 8 2 APR 2002 *US EPA, 2000, EPA903R00015, P64 *USDA, 2000, 1997 NAT RES INV ABELL RA, 2000, FRESHWATER ECOREGION, P319 ABT RC, 2000, FOREST PROD J, V50, P25 CONNER RC, 2001, RES B USDA, P61 CONNER RC, 2003, RESOURCE B USDA, P59 DODRILL JD, 2002, FOREST PROD J, V52, P29 FULTON S, 2002, 2002 SO FOREST RESOU, P635 INGRAM CD, 1999, US PULPWOOD RECEIPTS LUPPOLD W, INTERRELATIONSHIP MA LUPPOLD W, 2003, P SO FOR EC WORK SOF MASTER LL, 1998, RIVERS LIFE CRITICAL, P71 RICKETTS TH, 1999, TERRESTRIAL ECOREGIO, P485 WEAR DN, 2002, SRS54 USDA FOR SERV, P103 YOHO NS, 1980, SOUTH J APPL FOR, V4, P27 NR 17 TC 0 J9 ENVIRON MONIT ASSESS BP 101 EP 113 PY 2004 PD JUN VL 94 IS 1-3 GA 775UE UT ISI:000189078400008 ER PT J AU Desjardins, RL Smith, W Grant, B Campbell, C Riznek, R TI Management strategies to sequester carbon in agricultural soils and to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 Agr & Agri Food Canada, Res Branch, Ottawa, ON, Canada. RP Desjardins, RL, Agr & Agri Food Canada, Res Branch, 960 Carling Ave, Ottawa, ON, Canada. AB Carbon sequestration in agricultural soils is frequently promoted as a practical solution for slowing down the rate of increase of CO2 in the atmosphere. Consequently, there is a need to improve our understanding of how land management practices may affect the net removal of greenhouse gases (GHG) from the atmosphere. In this paper we examine the role of agriculture in influencing the GHG budget and briefly discuss the potential for carbon mitigation by agriculture. We also examine the opportunities that exist for increasing soil C sequestration using management practices such as reduced tillage, reduced frequency of summer fallowing, introduction of forage crops into crop rotations, conversion of cropland to grassland and nutrient addition via fertilization. In order to provide information on the impact of such management practices on the net GHG budget we ran simulations using CENTURY (a C model) and DNDC (a N model) for five locations across Canada, for a 30-yr time period. These simulations provide information on the potential trade-off between C sequestration and increased N2O emissions. Our model output suggests that conversion of cropland to grassland will result in the largest reduction in net GHG emissions, while nutrient additions via fertilizers will result in a small increase in GHG emissions. Simulations with the CENTURY model also indicated that favorable growing conditions during the last 15 yr could account for an increase of 6% in the soil C at a site in Lethbridge, Alberta. CR WATSON RT, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, V1, P1 *IPCC, 2000, LAND US LAND US CHAN, P377 *IPCC, 2001, IMP AD VULN TECHN SU, P56 *IPCC, 2001, SCI BAS TECHN SUMM R, P63 BRUCE JP, 1998, J SOIL WATER CONSERV, P382 CAMPBELL CA, 1990, CROP ROTATION STUDIE, P113 CAMPBELL CA, 2000, CAN J SOIL SCI, V80, P193 CAMPBELL CA, 2001, CAN J SOIL SCI, V81, P139 CAMPBELL CA, 2001, CAN J SOIL SCI, V81, P383 CHANTIGNY MH, 2001, CAN J SOIL SCI, V81, P131 COLE V, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, P745 CONANT RT, 2001, ECOL APPL, V11, P343 COSTA J, 1997, EXPERIENCE APPL NO T, P127 DEFRIES RS, 1999, GLOBAL BIOGEOCHEM CY, V13, P803 DESJARDINS RL, 2001, NUTR CYCL AGROECOSYS, V60, P317 DESJARDINS RL, 2001, SOIL SCI SOC AM J, V57, P115 DUMANSKI J, 1998, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V40, P81 FOLLETT RF, 2000, P C GREAT PLAINS SOI, V8, P1 FOLLETT RF, 2001, SOIL TILL RES, V61, P77 GARTEN CT, 1999, J ENVIRON QUAL, V28, P1359 GIFFORD RM, 1992, AUSTR RENEWABLE RESO, P151 HALVORSON AD, 1999, SOIL SCI SOC AM J, V63, P912 HOUGHTON RA, 2001, NDP050R1 CARB DIOX I JANZEN HH, 1999, HLTH OUR AIR SUSTAIN LAL R, 1997, SOIL TILL RES, V43, P81 LAL R, 1998, POTENTIAL US CROPLAN, P128 LAL R, 1999, ENVIRON SCI POLICY, V2, P177 LAL R, 2001, POTENTIAL US GRAZING, P249 LEE JJ, 1996, AGRON J, V88, P381 LI CS, 1992, J GEOPHYS RES-ATMOSP, V97, P9759 LI CS, 1992, J GEOPHYS RES-ATMOSP, V97, P9777 MCCONKEY BG, 1999, ESTIMATED GAINS SOIL MOSIER AR, 1997, GLOBAL BIOGEOCHEM CY, V11, P29 PARTON WJ, 1993, GLOBAL BIOGEOCHEM CY, V7, P785 PAUSTIAN KH, 1997, SOIL USE MANAGE S, V13, P230 SCHLESINGER WH, 1995, SOILS GLOBAL CHANGE SMITH P, 2000, GLOB CHANGE BIOL, V6, P525 SMITH WN, 1997, CAN J SOIL SCI, V77, P219 SMITH WN, 2000, GLOB CHANGE BIOL, V6, P557 SMITH WN, 2001, CAN J SOIL SCI, V81, P221 NR 40 TC 3 J9 CLIMATIC CHANGE BP 283 EP 297 PY 2005 PD MAY VL 70 IS 1-2 GA 942EG UT ISI:000230265100014 ER PT J AU Bereciartua, PJ TI Vulnerability to global environmental changes in Argentina: opportunities for upgrading regional water resources management strategies SO WATER SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY LA English DT Article C1 Univ Buenos Aires, Sch Engn, RA-1428 Buenos Aires, DF, Argentina. IIASA, START, Adv Inst Vulnerabil Global Environm Change, RA-1428 Buenos Aires, DF, Argentina. RP Bereciartua, PJ, Univ Buenos Aires, Sch Engn, Olazabal 1938, RA-1428 Buenos Aires, DF, Argentina. AB There is evidence of the increasing economic losses from extreme natural events during the last decades. These facts, thought to be triggered by environmental changes coupled with inefficient management and policies, highlight particularly exposed and vulnerable regions worldwide. Argentina faces several challenges associated with global environmental change and climate variability, especially related to water resources management including extreme floods and droughts. At the same time, the country's production capacity (i.e. natural resource-based commodities) and future development opportunities are closely tied to the sustainable development of its natural resource endowments. Given that vulnerability is registered not only by exposure to hazards (perturbations and stresses), but also resides in the sensitivity and resilience of the system experiencing such hazards, Argentina will need to improve its water management capacities to reduce its vulnerability to climate variability and change. This paper presents the basic components of the vulnerability analysis and suggests how it can be used to define efficient water management options. CR *CAM ARG CONSTR, 2003, CAMB CLIM CONS TERR, V1 *INT PAN CLIM CHAN, 1995, CLIM CHANG GLOSS INT *SAL BAS MAST PLAN, 2001, SAL BAS MAST PLAN BARROS V, 2000, SO HEMISPHERE PALEO, P187 CASTANEDA ME, 1994, METEOROLOGICA, V19, P23 FREEMAN P, 2002, DISASTER RISK MANAGE KREIMER A, 2001, DISASTER RISK MANAGE LINEROTHBAYER J, 2003, UNFCC WORKSH MECHLER R, 2003, THESIS U FRIDERICIAN POLLNER JD, 2001, 495 WORLD BANK TURNER BL, 2003, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V100, P8074 WILBANKS TJ, 2003, ENVIRONMENT, V45, P30 NR 12 TC 0 J9 WATER SCI TECHNOL BP 97 EP 103 PY 2005 VL 51 IS 5 GA 931CW UT ISI:000229464400015 ER PT J AU Fankhauser, S Smith, JB Tol, RSJ TI Weathering climate change: some simple rules to guide adaptation decisions SO ECOLOGICAL ECONOMICS LA English DT Article C1 Free Univ Amsterdam, Inst Environm Studies, NL-1081 HV Amsterdam, Netherlands. Hagler Bailly Serv Inc, Boulder, CO USA. World Bank, Washington, DC 20433 USA. RP Tol, RSJ, Free Univ Amsterdam, Inst Environm Studies, De Boelelaan 1115, NL-1081 HV Amsterdam, Netherlands. AB This paper discusses some of the elements that may characterise an efficient strategy to adapt to a changing climate. Such a strategy will have to reflect the long time horizon of, and the prevailing uncertainties about, climate change. An intuitively appealing approach therefore seems to be to enhance the flexibility and resilience of systems to react to and cope with climate shocks and extremes, as well as to improve information. In addition, in the case of quasi-irreversible investments with a long lifetime (e.g. infrastructure investments, development of coastal zones) precautionary adjustments may be called for to increase the robustness of structures, or to increase the rate of depreciation to allow for earlier replacement. Many of these measures may already have to be considered now, and could be worthwhile in their own right, independent of climate change considerations. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. 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Brunel Univ, Dept Geog & Earth Sci, Uxbridge UB8 3PH, Middx, England. RP Batterbury, S, Univ Sussex, Inst Dev Studies, Brighton BN1 9RE, E Sussex, England. 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Royal Soc Protect Birds, Sandy SG19 2DL, Beds, England. Univ Cambridge, Dept Zool, Conservat Biol Grp, Cambridge CB2 3EJ, England. Natl Inst Publ Hlth & Environm, NL-3720 BA Bilthoven, Netherlands. Macquarie Univ, Dept Biol Sci, N Ryde, NSW 2109, Australia. Univ Durham, Sch Biol & Biomed Sci, Durham DH1 3LE, England. Univ Witwatersrand, ZA-2050 Wits, South Africa. Ctr Referencia Informacao Ambiental, BR-13083885 Campinas, SP, Brazil. Univ Leeds, Sch Geog, Leeds LS2 9JT, W Yorkshire, England. Conservat Int, Ctr Appl Biodivers Sci, Washington, DC 20036 USA. Univ Stellenbosch, Dept Zool, ZA-7602 Stellenbosch, South Africa. Natl Bot Inst, Kirstenbosch Res Ctr, Climate Change Res Grp, ZA-7735 Cape Town, South Africa. Univ Nacl Autonoma Mexico, Inst Biol, Unidad Occidente, Mexico City 04510, DF, Mexico. Univ Kansas, Museum Nat Hist, Lawrence, KS 66045 USA. Univ Kansas, Biodivers Res Ctr, Lawrence, KS 66045 USA. James Cook Univ N Queensland, Sch Trop Biol, Cooperat Res Ctr Trop Rainforest Ecol, Townsville, Qld 4811, Australia. RP Thomas, CD, Univ Leeds, Sch Biol, Ctr Biodivers & Conservat, Leeds LS2 9JT, W Yorkshire, England. AB Climate change over the past similar to30 years has produced numerous shifts in the distributions and abundances of species(1,2) and has been implicated in one species-level extinction(3). Using projections of species' distributions for future climate scenarios, we assess extinction risks for sample regions that cover some 20% of the Earth's terrestrial surface. Exploring three approaches in which the estimated probability of extinction shows a powerlaw relationship with geographical range size, we predict, on the basis of mid-range climate-warming scenarios for 2050, that 15 - 37% of species in our sample of regions and taxa will be 'committed to extinction'. When the average of the three methods and two dispersal scenarios is taken, minimal climate-warming scenarios produce lower projections of species committed to extinction (similar to18%) than mid-range (similar to24%) and maximum-change (similar to35%) scenarios. These estimates show the importance of rapid implementation of technologies to decrease greenhouse gas emissions and strategies for carbon sequestration. CR *INT PAN CLIM CHAN, 2001, CLIM CHANG 2001 SCI *IUCN SPEC SURV CO, 2001, IUCN RED LIST CAT CR ACHARD F, 2002, SCIENCE, V297, P999 BAKER RHA, 2000, AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON, V82, P57 BAKKENES M, 2002, GLOBAL CHANGE BIOL, V8, P390 BEAUMONT LJ, 2002, GLOBAL CHANGE BIOL, V8, P954 BEERLING DJ, 1993, J BIOGEOGR, V20, P45 BENTON MJ, 2003, TRENDS ECOL EVOL, V18, P358 BOND WJ, 2003, GLOBAL CHANGE BIOL, V9, P973 BROOKS TM, 1997, CONSERV BIOL, V11, P382 BROOKS TM, 1999, CONSERV BIOL, V13, P1140 ERASMUS BFN, 2002, GLOBAL CHANGE BIOL, V8, P679 GASTON KJ, 2003, P ROY SOC LOND B BIO, V270, P1293 HOUGHTON JT, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 LACKNER KS, 2003, SCIENCE, V300, P1677 MIDGLEY GF, 2002, GLOBAL ECOL BIOGEOGR, V11, P445 MYERS N, 2000, NATURE, V403, P853 OVERPECK J, 2002, PALEOCLIMATE GLOBAL, P81 PARMESAN C, 2003, NATURE, V421, P37 PEARSON RG, 2003, GLOBAL ECOL BIOGEOGR, V12, P361 PETERSON AT, 2001, BIOSCIENCE, V51, P363 PETERSON AT, 2002, NATURE, V416, P626 POUNDS JA, 1999, NATURE, V398, P611 ROGET M, 2003, BIOL CONSERV, V112, P63 ROOT TL, 2003, NATURE, V421, P57 ROSENZWEIG ML, 1995, SPECIES DIVERSITY SP SALA OE, 2000, SCIENCE, V287, P1770 WHITTAKER JB, 1999, EUR J ENTOMOL, V96, P149 WILLIAMS SE, 2003, P ROY SOC LOND B BIO, V270, P1887 WOODWARD FI, 2002, CURR OPIN PLANT BIOL, V5, P207 NR 30 TC 19 J9 NATURE BP 145 EP 148 PY 2004 PD JAN 8 VL 427 IS 6970 GA 760YY UT ISI:000187863900033 ER PT J AU Chapin, FS Hoel, M Carpenter, SR Lubchenco, J Walker, BH Callaghan, TV Folke, C Levin, SA Maler, KG Nilsson, C Barrett, S Berkes, F Crepin, AS Danell, K Rosswall, T Starrett, D Xepapadeas, A Zimov, SA TI Building resilience and adaptation to manage Arctic change SO AMBIO LA English DT Article C1 Univ Alaska Fairbanks, Inst Arctic Biol, Fairbanks, AK 99775 USA. Univ Oslo, Dept Econ, N-0317 Oslo, Norway. Univ Wisconsin, Ctr Limnol, Madison, WI 53706 USA. Oregon State Univ, Dept Zool, Corvallis, OR 97331 USA. CSIRO, Sustainable Ecosyst, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia. Abisko Sci Res Stn, S-98107 Abisko, Sweden. Stockholm Univ, Dept Syst Ecol, SE-10691 Stockholm, Sweden. Stockholm Univ, Ctr Transdisciplinary Environm Res, SE-10691 Stockholm, Sweden. Princeton Univ, Dept Ecol & Evolutionary Biol, Princeton, NJ 08544 USA. Beijer Inst, SE-10405 Stockholm, Sweden. Umea Univ, Landscape Ecol Grp, Dept Ecol & Environm Sci, SE-90187 Umea, Sweden. Johns Hopkins Univ, Sch Adv Int Studies, Washington, DC 20036 USA. Univ Manitoba, Inst Nat Resources, Winnipeg, MB R3T 2N2, Canada. Swedish Univ Agr Sci, Dept Anim Ecol, SE-90183 Umea, Sweden. Inst Council Sci, F-75016 Paris, France. Stanford Univ, Dept Econ, Stanford, CA 94305 USA. Univ Crete, Dept Econ, Rethimnon 74100, Crete, Greece. Russian Acad Sci, NE Sci Stn, Pacific Inst Geog, Far E Branch, Cherskii 678830, Russia. RP Chapin, FS, Univ Alaska Fairbanks, Inst Arctic Biol, Fairbanks, AK 99775 USA. AB Unprecedented global changes caused by human actions challenge society's ability to sustain the desirable features of our planet. This requires proactive management of change to foster both resilience (sustaining those attributes that are important to society in the face of change) and adaptation (developing new socioecological configurations that function effectively under new conditions). The Arctic may be one of the last remaining opportunities to plan for change in a spatially extensive region where many of the ancestral ecological and social processes and feedbacks are still intact. If the feasibility of this strategy can be demonstrated in the Arctic, our improved understanding of the dynamics of change can be applied to regions with greater human modification. Conditions may now be ideal to implement policies to manage Arctic change because recent studies provide the essential scientific understanding, appropriate international institutions are in place, and Arctic nations have the wealth to institute necessary changes, if they choose to do so. CR *ACIA, 2005, ARCT CLIM IMP ASS *AHDR, 2004, ARCT HUM DEV REP *ARCT COUNC, 2004, ARCT CLIM IMP ASS PO BERKES F, 2005, BREAKING ICE RENEWAB BERKES F, 2006, IN PRESS COASTAL MAN CALLAGHAN TV, 2002, AMBIO SPECIAL REPORT, V12, P6 CALLAGHAN TV, 2004, AMBIO, V33, P448 CHAPIN FS, IN PRESS AM NAT CHAPIN FS, 2003, FRONT ECOL ENVIRON, V1, P255 CHAPIN FS, 2004, AMBIO, V33, P344 CHAPIN FS, 2004, AMBIO, V33, P361 CHAPIN FS, 2005, ECOSYSTEMS HUMAN WEL, P717 DIETZ T, 2003, SCIENCE, V302, P1907 DOWNIE DL, 2003, N LIGHTS POPS COMBAT ELMQVIST T, 2004, AMBIO, V33, P350 GUNDERSON LH, 2002, PANARCHY UNDERSTANDI, V1, P1 HINZMAN LD, 2005, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V72, P251 KENDRICK A, 2003, NAVIGATING SOCIAL EC, P241 KRUPNIK I, 2002, EARTH IS FASTER INDI MAGDANZ JS, 2002, 259 AL DEP FISH GAM OLSSON P, 2004, ENVIRON MANAGE, V34, P75 PRENTICE IC, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, P183 SERREZE MC, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V46, P159 TURNER BL, 2003, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V100, P8074 NR 24 TC 1 J9 AMBIO BP 198 EP 202 PY 2006 PD JUN VL 35 IS 4 GA 072YH UT ISI:000239708600010 ER PT J AU Mote, PW Parson, EA Hamlet, AF Keeton, WS Lettenmaier, D Mantua, N Miles, EL Peterson, D Peterson, DL Slaughter, R Snover, AK TI Preparing for climatic change: The water, salmon, and forests of the Pacific Northwest SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 Univ Washington, JISAO, SMA, Climate Impacts Grp, Seattle, WA 98195 USA. Harvard Univ, John F Kennedy Sch Govt, Cambridge, MA 02138 USA. Univ Wisconsin, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Madison, WI 53706 USA. Forest Serv, USDA, Pacific NW Res Stn, Washington, DC 20009 USA. Richard Slaughter Assoc, Boise, ID USA. RP Mote, PW, Univ Washington, JISAO, SMA, Climate Impacts Grp, Box 354235, Seattle, WA 98195 USA. AB The impacts of year-to-year and decade-to-decade climatic variations on some of the Pacific Northwest's key natural resources can be quantified to estimate sensitivity to regional climatic changes expected as part of anthropogenic global climatic change. Warmer, drier years, often associated with El Nino events and/or the warm phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, tend to be associated with below-average snowpack, streamflow, and flood risk, below-average salmon survival, below-average forest growth, and above-average risk of forest fire. During the 20th century, the region experienced a warming of 0.8degreesC. Using output from eight climate models, we project a further warming of 0.5-2.5degreesC (central estimate 1.5degreesC) by the 2020s, 1.5-3.2degreesC (2.3degreesC) by the 2040s, and an increase in precipitation except in summer. The foremost impact of a warming climate will be the reduction of regional snowpack, which presently supplies water for ecosystems and human uses during the dry summers. Our understanding of past climate also illustrates the responses of human management systems to climatic stresses, and suggests that a warming of the rate projected would pose significant challenges to the management of natural resources. Resource managers and planners currently have few plans for adapting to or mitigating the ecological and economic effects of climatic change. 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Nigerian Inst Oceanog & Marine Res, Lagos, Nigeria. Yellow Sea Fisheries Inst, Qingdao 266071, Peoples R China. RP Sherman, K, NOAA, Natl Marine Fisheries Serv, Narragansett Lab, 28 Tarzwell Dr, Narragansett, RI 02882 USA. CR KATES RW, 2001, SCIENCE, V292, P641 SHERMAN K, 1999, MAR ECOL-PROG SER, V190, P271 NR 2 TC 0 J9 SCIENCE BP 772 EP 772 PY 2002 PD AUG 2 VL 297 IS 5582 GA 579RZ UT ISI:000177192800024 ER PT J AU Trnka, M Dubrovsky, M Zalud, Z TI Climate change impacts and adaptation strategies in spring barley production in the Czech Republic SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 Mendel Univ Agr & Forestry Brno, Inst Landscape Ecol, Brno 61300, Czech Republic. AS CR, Inst Atmospher Phys, Prague, Czech Republic. RP Trnka, M, Mendel Univ Agr & Forestry Brno, Inst Landscape Ecol, Zemedelska 1, Brno 61300, Czech Republic. AB The crop model CERES-Barley was used to assess the impacts of increased concentration of atmospheric CO2 on growth and development of the most important spring cereal in Central and Western Europe, i.e., spring barley, and to examine possible adaptation strategies. Three experimental regions were selected to compare the climate change impacts in various climatic and pedological conditions. The analysis was based on multi-year crop model simulations run with daily weather series obtained by a stochastic weather generator and included two yield levels: stressed yields and potential yields. Four climate change scenarios based on global climate models and representing 2 x CO2 climate were applied. Results: (i) The crop model is suitable for use in the given environment, e. g., the coefficient of determination between the simulated and experimental yields equals 0.88. (ii) The indirect effect related to changed weather conditions is mostly negative. Its magnitude ranges from - 19% to + 5% for the four scenarios applied at the three regions. (iii) The magnitude of the direct effect of doubled CO2 on the stressed yields for the three test sites is 35 - 55% in the present climate and 25 - 65% in the 2 x CO2 climates. (iv) The stressed yields would increase in 2 x CO2 conditions by 13 - 52% when both direct and indirect effects were considered. (v) The impacts of doubled CO2 on potential yields are more uniform throughout the localities in comparison with the stressed yields. The magnitude of the indirect and direct effects ranges from - 1 to - 9% and from + 31 to + 33%, respectively. Superposition of both effects results in 19 - 30% increase of the potential yields. (vi) Application of the earlier planting date ( up to 60 days) would result in 15 - 22% increase of the yields in 2 x CO2 conditions. (vii) Use of a cultivar with longer vegetation duration would bring 1.5% yield increase per one extra day of the vegetation season. (viii) The initial water content in the soil water profile proved to be one of the key elements determining the spring barley yield. It causes the yields to increase by 54 - 101 kg. ha(-1) per 1% increase of the available soil water content on the sowing day. 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RP Beck, MB, Univ London Imperial Coll Sci Technol & Med, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, London, England. AB Policy-makers and the public, it has famously been said [Brooks, H. (1986) Sustainable Development of the Biosphere, Cambridge University Press, p. 325], are more interested in the possibility of non-linear dislocations and surprises in the behavior of the environment than in smooth extrapolations of current trends. How indeed should we design our models to generate environmental foresight, to detect, in particular, threats to our environment lying 'just beyond the horizon'? In facing this prospect of potentially profound dislocations in behavior, the problem is that the number of state variables in the model, whether they interact, how they interact, and the form of their interactions, may be evolving over time. What may have appeared to have been an insignificant mode of behavior in the past-buried within the uncertainty of the model and the historical data-may come to dominate behavior in the future. Technically, we may call this a change of structure. The concern of the paper is to address the challenge of constructing and employing models to generate environmental foresight in the presence of structural change. A number of case histories, ranging across lake eutrophication, urban ozone levels, the restoration of ecosystems, the circulation of waters in the North Atlantic, and the invasion of exotic species, are used to construct a much more immediate sense of the nature of structural change and, therefore, the character of the challenge of generating environmental foresight. Some mathematical and logical formalities are then introduced, both to define the issues more sharply and to open up the means with which to address them. This provides an opportunity to take stock of three rather different programs of model-building used, over the decades, to generate environmental foresight. We close by illustrating a set of possible responses to the essential challenge through a number of contemporary case studies: in assessing, inter alia, the reachability of the lay community's hopes and fears for the future of their cherished piece of the environment; in apprehending and diagnosing the possibility of imminent structural change; and in examining the record of the past for emergence of the seeds of any such structural change. (c) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 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AB This paper reviews the prospects for adaptation in world agriculture in the face of climate change. The record of experience from previous decades demonstrates a considerable capacity to adapt and there is general optimism that successful adaptation will be maintained. There are some grounds for concern because of the uncertainty surrounding global climate projections and the probability of considerable regional variation in impacts. While world production may not be adversely affected, the prospects are not so encouraging for low latitude agricultural regions, in part because of lower capacity to adapt. Attention has focused on the farming community itself as the place where adaptation takes place, but now the processes of globalization are placing adaptation more in the hands of agri-business, national policy makers, and the international political economy. The continued success of adaptation rests more heavily on actions at the national level in the context of changing technology and world trade liberalization. An adaptation policy framework is suggested as a vehicle to help understand and facilitate adaptation in this changing context. CR *IPCC, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, P427 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 BURTON I, 1978, ENV HAZARD, V1, P1 BURTON I, 1999, 72 WORLD BANK BURTON I, 2001, ADAPTATION POLICY FR LIM B, 2004, ADAPTATION POLICY FR PARRY ML, 1999, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V9, P51 PARRY ML, 1998, CLIMATE IMPACT ADAPT SMIT B, 2001, ADAPTATION CLIMATE C, P877 SMITH B, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P223 SPANGERSIEGFRIE.E, 2004, USERS GUIDE BOOK ADA NR 11 TC 3 J9 CLIMATIC CHANGE BP 191 EP 200 PY 2005 PD MAY VL 70 IS 1-2 GA 942EG UT ISI:000230265100009 ER PT J AU SOROOS, MS TI GLOBAL CHANGE, ENVIRONMENTAL SECURITY, AND THE PRISONERS-DILEMMA SO JOURNAL OF PEACE RESEARCH LA English DT Article RP SOROOS, MS, N CAROLINA STATE UNIV,DEPT POLIT SCI & PUBL ADM,RALEIGH,NC 27695. AB Environmental problems, including the recent concern with the 'global change' problematique, now occupy a prominent position on international agendas and are recognized as a legitimate concern of peace research. Numerous scholars, policy-makers, and activists have proposed broadening use of the concept security beyond its traditional geopolitical and military focus to take into account environmental threats that seriously jeopardize human well-being. This article examines arguments that have been made both for and against use of the concept 'environmental security'. To assess the utility of this approach, the core concept 'security' is defined in terms of threats and vulnerabilities. Strategies for enhancing security are distinguished on the basis of whether they are designed (a) to reduce threats or vulnerabilities and (b) to be carried out unilaterally or collectively. Parallels are drawn between the options available to achieve military and environmental security with reference to the Prisoner's Dilemma game, which has been used widely to explain why states seek military security through counterproductive arms buildups rather than through a potentially much less costly strategy of mutual arms reductions. While the logic of the Prisoner's Dilemma did not prevail in the successful negotiations on protecting the ozone layer, it may become a significant factor in international efforts to address the problem of climate change. The larger question for peace research is whether the pursuit of environmental security can be channeled into cooperative arrangements that promote sustainable development rather than self-serving, nationalistic ventures that will heighten international conflict and perpetuate international injustices. 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AB Given the evidence from past experience, the coastal city of Hong Kong would be vulnerable to a variety of hazards that could be exacerbated by climatic change, including potential increases in typhoons, landslides, floods (both storm surges and rainstorms), and droughts, as well as the threat of future sea level rise. The greatest death tolls in the past have been inflicted during typhoon-induced storm surges. During two unnamed typhoons, in 1906 and 1937, the death tolls were 10,000 and 11,000, respectively. In contrast, death tolls associated with landslides and other hazards were relatively small. Under a climatic change scenario of an increase in frequency and severity of typhoons and rainstorms, and rising sea level, the vulnerable areas of Hong Kong can be identified. The shift in development from hillslope areas to coastal land reclamations over the last 25 years is a matter of concern. Although the hillslopes are susceptible to landslides during rainstorms, virtually all landslides can be traced to some important anthropogenic causes and are preventable with appropriate measures. In the coming decades, the low-lying areas created through coastal land reclamations could be susceptible to flooding during storm surges and rainstorms and as the sea level rises. These areas are also where there is high density urban and industrial development, and the vulnerability is the greatest. High seawalls to protect the reclaimed areas from storm surge flooding and sea level rise may increase the risk of rainstorm flooding. To reduce vulnerability, a combination of better monitoring, planning, protection, maintenance, and warning is proposed for adaptation. Monitoring is needed not only to detect future sea level changes but also to identify areas with the greatest risk. 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RP Srdjevic, B, Univ Novi Sad, Fac Agr, Dept Water Management, YU-21000 Novi Sad, Serbia Monteneg, Yugoslavia. AB Advanced computer models are commonly used to simulate reservoir system's performance. If the number of possible management scenarios is large, it can be extremely difficult to follow related system's operation and get a valuable picture on its spatial and temporal behavior. The decision maker or analyst can be overburdened by quantity and complexity of information generated by model, particularly if system operation is repeatedly simulated for multiyear periods. Related problem is how to select the scenario with most desired long-term consequences. Possible approach is to use selected parts of model's output and re-interpret system behavior by means of certain performance indicators, create appropriate decision matrix and perform multi-criteria analysis to rank decision alternatives (scenarios). The paper proposes a methodology that includes: (1) multiyear simulations of system operation; (2) computing spatially and temporally distributed system performance indices such as supply reliability, resiliency and vulnerability; (3) unbiased entropy-based weighting the importance of performance indices; and (4) final ranking of scenarios by means of multi-criteria analysis. The number of scenarios and number of performance indices is not restricted, and to account for possibly large sets of scenarios, an ideal-point-distance multicriteria method TOPSIS is suggested. Proposed methodology appeared to be confident and robust in proof-of-concept application in Brazil. 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RP Mabogunje, AL, Dev Policy Ctr, Ibadan, Nigeria. CR 1991, STATUS GROUND WATER, P32 *ESCAP, 1992, STESCAP1300 UN *INT PAN CLIM CHAN, 2001, CLIM CHANG 2000 IMP, P14 *JOINT UN PROGR HI, 2001, AIDS EP UPD *UN POP DIV, 2001, WORLD POP PROSP 2000 *UNCHS, 1996, URB WORLD GLOB REP H *UNCHS, 1996, URB WORLD GLOB REP H, P171 *UNDP, 1997, HUM DEV REP 1997, P3 *UNEP WHO, 1994, ENVIRONMENT MAR, P25 *UNEP WHO, 1994, ENVIRONMENT MAR, P4 *UNEP WHO, 1998, ENVIRONMENT OCT, P26 *UNEP WHO, 1998, ENVIRONMENT OCT, P6 *WORLD BANK, 2000, WORLD DEV REP 2000 2, P3 *WORLD COMM ENV DE, 1987, OUR COMM FUT *WRI, 1987, WORLD RES 1987 ASS R, P3 *WRI, 1994, WORLD RES 1994 95 GU, P10 HAAS P, 1992, ENVIRONMENT OCT, P26 HAAS PM, 1992, ENVIRONMENT OCT, P6 HODDINOTT J, 1998, CHILD GROWTH TIME DR JEYARATNAM J, 1990, WORLD HLTH STATISTIC, V43, P139 KATES RW, 1992, ENVIRONMENT MAY, P25 KATES RW, 1992, ENVIRONMENT MAY, P4 KATES RW, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P5 KATES RW, 2001, SCIENCE, V292, P641 MARSHALL A, 1996, STATE WORLD POPULATI MCCARTHY J, 2000, ENVIRONMENT DEC, P8 MCGRANAHAN G, 1994, ENVIRONMENT JUL, P4 MCGRANAHAN G, 1994, ENVIRONMENT, V36, P40 POLANYI K, 1944, GREAT TRANSFORMATION, P75 POTTEBAUM DA, 1999, EC SOCIAL IMPLICATIO RAVEN PH, 2000, P 1997 FOR BIOD BOAR REARDON T, 1996, WORLD DEV, V24, P901 ROBINSON NA, 1996, AGENDA 21 EARTHS ACT, P63 SAPIR D, 1990, INFECT DIS EPIDEMICS VOS R, 1999, EC SOCIAL EFFECTS EL NR 35 TC 1 J9 ENVIRONMENT BP 8 EP 18 PY 2002 PD JAN-FEB VL 44 IS 1 GA 506AA UT ISI:000172946700003 ER PT J AU Small, C Nicholls, RJ TI A global analysis of human settlement in coastal zones SO JOURNAL OF COASTAL RESEARCH LA English DT Article C1 Columbia Univ, Lamont Doherty Earth Observ, Palisades, NY 10964 USA. Middlesex Univ, Flood Hazard Res Ctr, Enfield EN3 4SF, Middx, England. RP Small, C, Columbia Univ, Lamont Doherty Earth Observ, Palisades, NY 10964 USA. AB Recent improvements in mapping of global population distribution makes it possible to estimate the number and distribution of people near coasts with greater accuracy than previously possible, and hence consider the potential exposure of these populations to coastal hazards. In this paper, we combine the updated Gridded Population of the World (GPW2) population distribution estimate for 1990 and lighted settlement imagery with a global digital elevation model (DEM) and a high resolution vector coastline. This produces bivariate distributions of population, lighted settlements and land area as functions of elevation and coastal proximity. The near-coastal population within 100 km of a shoreline and 100 m of sea level was estimated as 1.2 X 10(9) people with average densities nearly 3 times higher than the global average density. Within the near coastal-zone, the average population density diminishes more rapidly with elevation than with distance, while the opposite is true of lighted settlements. Lighted settlements are concentrated within 5 km of coastlines worldwide, whereas average population densities are higher at elevations below 20 m throughout the 100 km width of the near-coastal zone. Presently most of the near-coastal population live in relatively densely-populated rural areas and small to medium cities, rather than in large cities. A range of improvements are required to define a better baseline and scenarios for policy analysis. Improving the resolution of the underlying population data is a priority. CR *CIESIN COL U IFPR, 2000, GRIDD POP WORLD VERS *UN ISDR, 2002, LIV RISK GLOB REV DI *UN ISDR, 2002, NAT DIS SUST DEV UND *UN, 2001, PROSP URB 2001 REV BERRY BL, 1990, URBANIZATION EARTH T, P103 BURTON I, 1978, ENV HAZARD, V1, P1 COHEN JE, 1997, SCIENCE, V278, P1211 COHEN JE, 1998, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V95, P14009 CROFT TA, 1978, SCI AM, V239, P86 DANKO DM, 1992, GEOINFO SYSTEMS, V2, P29 DEICHMANN U, 2001, UNPUB TRANSFORMING P ELVIDGE CD, 1997, PHOTOGRAMM ENG REM S, V63, P727 ELVIDGE CD, 1999, REMOTE SENS ENVIRON, V68, P77 HAUSMANN R, 2001, FOREIGN POLICY JAN, P45 HINRICHSEN D, 1998, COASTAL WATERS WORLD HOOZEMANS FMJ, 1993, GLOBAL VULNERABILITY HOUGHTON JT, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 KLEIN RJT, 1999, AMBIO, V28, P182 KLEIN RJT, 2001, J COASTAL RES, V17, P531 KLEIN RJT, 2002, FUT DIS RISK BUILD S LAMB HH, 1995, CLIMATE HIST MODERN MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 MIMURA N, 2000, GLOBAL CHANGE ASIA P, P21 NICHOLLS RJ, 1995, GEOJOURNAL, V37, P369 NICHOLLS RJ, 1995, J GLOBAL ENV ENG, V1, P137 NICHOLLS RJ, 1998, CLIMATE RES, V11, P5 NICHOLLS RJ, 1999, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHA S, V9, PS69 NICHOLLS RJ, 2002, ENCY COASTAL SCI NICHOLLS RJ, 2002, EOS T AM GEOPHYS UN, V83, P301 NICHOLLS RJ, 2002, EOS T AM GEOPHYS UN, V83, P305 NICHOLLS RJ, 2002, ISS ENVIR SCI TECHN, V17, P83 PERNETTA JC, 1995, 33 INT GEOSPH BIOSPH SACHS J, 1997, ECONOMIST 0614, P17 SACHS JD, 2001, SCI AM, V284, P70 SMALL C, 1999, P INT S DIG EARTH, P965 SMALL C, 2000, ENV GEOSCI, V7, P3 SMALL C, 2002, EUROPEAN GEOPHYSICAL SMALL, 2001, ENV HAZARDS, V3, P93 SMALL, 2002, IN PRESS CURRENT ANT SMIT B, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, P877 SMITH A, 1776, INQUIRY NATURE CAUSE STIVE MJF, 2002, IN PRESS COASTAL ENG SUTTON P, 2001, INT J REMOTE SENS, V22, P3061 TIMMERMAN P, 1997, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V7, P205 TOBLER W, 1997, AUTOCARTO, V13 TOBLER W, 1997, INT J POPULATION GEO, V3, P203 TURNER I, 1996, APPL MATH MODEL, V20, P2 VANDERHARST E, 1998, INT J CANCER, V79, P537 VANDERVINK G, 1998, EOS, V79, P533 VITOUSEK PM, 1997, SCIENCE, V277, P494 WARRICK RA, 1993, CLIMATE SEA LEVEL CH WESSEL P, 1996, J GEOPHYS RES-SOL EA, V101, P8741 ZHANG KQ, 2002, J GEOL, V110, P493 NR 53 TC 2 J9 J COASTAL RES BP 584 EP 599 PY 2003 PD SUM VL 19 IS 3 GA 712TU UT ISI:000184814000010 ER PT J AU Sneddon, CS Harris, L Dimitrov, RS Ozesmi, U TI Contested waters: Conflict, scale, and sustainability in aquatic socioecological systems SO SOCIETY & NATURAL RESOURCES LA English DT Article C1 Dartmouth Coll, Dept Geog, Environm Studies Program, Hanover, NH 03755 USA. Univ Minnesota, Dept Geog, Minneapolis, MN 55455 USA. Univ Minnesota, Dept Polit Sci, Minneapolis, MN 55455 USA. Erciyes Univ, Dept Environm Engn, Kayseri, Turkey. RP Sneddon, CS, Dartmouth Coll, Dept Geog, Environm Studies Program, 6017 Fairchild, Hanover, NH 03755 USA. AB Adequate interpretations of the complex social processes that contribute to the transformation of aquatic ecosystems and subsequent conflicts over water demand an interdisciplinary perspective. In this special issue, we focus on the multiple causes of conflicts over water, sensitive to the complex interrelations between and within social and ecological phenomena that result in transformed and Contested environments. The cases presented here-representing research carried out in Bangladesh, Pakistan, Thailand, Turkey, and the United States-emphasize three interrelated themes: the need to account for multiple spatial and temporal scales in analyzing conflicts over water and water-related resources; the complex character of environmental (or ecological) conflict; and questions of sustainability. Ultimately, inure incisive understandings of the multiple causes of conflicts over water and aquatic resources are contingent on the integration of multiple disciplinary perspectives. This understanding will in turn promote uses of water and water-related resources that sustain rather than degrade aquatic socioecological systems. CR ADAMS W, 1995, POWER DEV, P87 AGRAWAL A, 1999, GREENER PASTURES POL AHL V, 1996, HIERARCHY THEORY VIS BALAND J, 1996, HALTING DEGRADATION BERKES F, 1989, COMMON PROPERTY RESO BERKES F, 1998, LINKING SOCIAL ECOLO, V1, P1 BRAUN B, 1998, REMAKING REALITY NAT BROMLEY D, 1992, MAKING COMMONS WORK BRYANT R, 1997, 3 WORLD POLITICAL EC CASTREE N, 1998, REMAKING REALITY NAT, P3 CHAMBERS R, 1992, REAL LIFE EC UNDERST, P214 CLARKE R, 1991, WATER INT CRISIS COLWELL RK, 1985, AM ZOOL, V25, P771 CRUMLEY CL, 1994, HIST ECOLOGY CULTURA, P1 DALBY S, 1992, PROG HUM GEOG, V16, P503 DICKENS P, 1992, SOC NATURE GREEN SOC DONAHUE J, 1998, WATER CULTURE POWER DRYZEK J, 1997, POLITICS EARTH ENV D DUDA AM, 2000, WATER INT, V25, P115 ELHANCE A, 1999, HYDROPOLITICS 3 WORL ESCOBAR A, 1995, POWER DEV, P211 FALKENMARK M, 1998, NATURAL RESOURCES FO, V21, P37 FRAZIER JG, 1997, ENVIRON CONSERV, V24, P182 FREY FW, 1993, WATER INT, V18, P54 GLEICK P, 1993, WATER CRISIS GUIDE W GLEICK P, 2000, WORLDS WATER 2000 20 GOLDBLATT D, 1996, SOCIAL THEORY ENV GUNDERSON LH, 1995, BARRIERS BRIDGES REN, V1, P1 HAFTENDORN H, 1999, 3 WORLD Q, V21, P51 HAILA Y, 1992, HUMANITY NATURE ECOL HARAWAY D, 1997, MODEST WITNESS 2 MIL HARVEY D, 1996, JUSTICE NATURE GEOGR HASTINGS A, 1993, ANNU REV ECOL SYST, V24, P1 HOLLING CS, 1995, BARRIERS BRIDGES REN, P3 HOMERDIXON TF, 1991, INT SECURITY, V16, P76 HOMERDIXON TF, 1999, ENV SCARCITY VIOLENC JAMIESON D, 1998, ECOL ECON, V24, P183 KORTELAINEN J, 1999, GEOFORUM, V30, P235 KOUDSTAAL R, 1992, NAT RESOUR FORUM, V16, P277 LATOUR B, 1993, WE HAVE NEVER BEEN M LATOUR B, 1999, PANDORAS THOPE ESSAY LELE SM, 1991, WORLD DEV, V19, P607 LEVIN SA, 1992, ECOLOGY, V73, P1943 LIPSCHUTZ R, 1993, STATE SOCIAL POWER G LIPSCHUTZ R, 1996, GLOBAL CIVIL SOC GLO LOUCKS DP, 2000, WATER INT, V25, P3 LUKE T, 1999, CAPITALISM DEMOCRACY MYERS G, 1998, ENVIRON PLANN A, V30, P333 NEWSON M, 1992, LAND WATER DEV RIVER NORGAARD R, 1994, DEV BETRAYED END PRO OHLSSON L, 1995, HYDROPOLITICS CONFLI ORIORDAN T, 1997, ENVIRON POLIT, V6, P1 OSTROM E, 1990, GOVERNING COMMONS EV PEET R, 1996, LIBERATION ECOLOGIES PETERSON D, 1998, ECOLOGICAL SCALE THE POSTEL S, 1997, LAST OASIS FACING WA RASKIN P, 1995, WATER SUSTAINABILITY REDCLIFT M, 1987, SUSTAINABLE DEV EXPL SERAGELDIN I, 1995, INT J WATER RESOURCE, V11, P221 SIMON P, 1998, TAPPED OUT COMING WO SMITH N, 1992, POSTMODERNISM SOCIAL, P57 SNEDDON CS, 2000, PROG HUM GEOG, V24, P521 SOPER K, 1995, WHAT IS NATURE CULTU STANFORD JA, 1992, WATERSHED MANAGEMENT, P91 SWYNGEDOUW E, 1997, SPACES GLOBALIZATION, P137 THOMPSON M, 1998, MT RES DEV, V18, P117 TOSET HPW, 2000, POLIT GEOGR, V19, P971 VITOUSEK PM, 1997, SCIENCE, V277, P494 WHITE D, 1998, POSTMODERN ECOLOGY C WOLF AT, 1999, NATURAL RESOURCES FO, V23, P3 WOLF AT, 1999, WATER INT, V24, P160 WORSTER D, 1994, NATURES EC HIST ECOL NR 72 TC 3 J9 SOC NATUR RESOUR BP 663 EP 675 PY 2002 PD SEP VL 15 IS 8 GA 594BQ UT ISI:000178029200001 ER PT J AU Vogel, C TI "Seven fat years and seven lean years"? Climate change and agriculture in Africa SO IDS BULLETIN-INSTITUTE OF DEVELOPMENT STUDIES LA English DT Article C1 Univ Witwatersrand, Sch Geog Archaeol & Environm Studies, ZA-2050 Johannesburg, South Africa. RP Vogel, C, Univ Witwatersrand, Sch Geog Archaeol & Environm Studies, ZA-2050 Johannesburg, South Africa. AB While extreme climate events can significantly affect African agriculture, equally important are more gradual changes as well as interactions with socially rooted shocks and vulnerabilities. Existing scenarios of climate change's impact in Africa are diverse and uncertain, but largely unfavourable and point to the importance of mediating social factors such as governance, HIV/AIDS, land tenure, trade patterns and market structures. Efforts are needed to improve technical and institutional adaptive capacities and to improve understanding of climate fluctuations, human vulnerability and their interaction. CR *FFSSA, 2004, ACH FOOD SEC SO AFR MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 *SAFMA, 2004, INT REP AHMED I, 1987, 62 I DEV STUD AMOAKO KY, 2000, AFRICA POLICY E 0921 ASHLEY C, 2001, RETHINKING RURAL DEV BENSON C, 2004, DISASTER RISK MANAGE, V4 BRIDGMAN HA, 1998, CLIMATES SO CONTINEN, P276 CESAR H, 2004, IR04018 LAX INT I AP DEVEREAUX S, 2004, ID21 INSIGHT, P53 DEVEREUX S, 2004, ORG PAST COMM IN UN FISCHER G, 2002, CLIMATE CHANGE AGR V HULME M, 2001, CLIMATE RES, V17, P145 JONES PG, 2003, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V13, P51 JURY MR, 1995, S AFR J SCI, V91, P289 KANJI N, 2002, 159 I DEV STUD LINDESAY JA, 1988, J CLIMATOL, V8, P17 LOMBORG B, 2001, SKEPTICAL ENVIRONMEN MASON SJ, 1997, INT J CLIMATOL, V17, P291 MAXWELL S, 2003, FOOD POLICY OLD NEW MENDELSOHN R, 2000, CLIMATE CHANGE IMPAC MENDELSOHN R, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P553 OBRIEN KL, 2003, COPING CLIMATE VARIA OGUNSEITAN OA, 2003, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V13, P101 PARRY ML, 2002, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V12, P149 RICHARD Y, 2001, INT J CLIMATOLOGY, V24, P873 ROSENZWEIG C, 1998, CLIMATE CHANGE GLOBA SACHS JD, 2005, END POVERTY EC POSSI SOKONA Y, 2001, CLIM POLICY, V1, P117 THOMAS CD, 2004, NATURE, V427, P145 WASHINGTON RW, 2004, AFRICAN CLIMATE REPO WEATHERSPOON DD, 2003, DEV POLICY REV, V21, P333 NR 32 TC 1 J9 IDS BULL-INST DEVELOP STUD BP 30 EP + PY 2005 PD JUN VL 36 IS 2 GA 949PI UT ISI:000230800200006 ER PT J AU Cushman, RM Jones, SB TI The relative importance of sources of greenhouse-gas emissions: Comparison of global through subnational perspectives SO ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article C1 Oak Ridge Natl Lab, Div Environm Sci, Carbon Dioxide Informat Anal Ctr, Oak Ridge, TN 37831 USA. RP Cushman, RM, Oak Ridge Natl Lab, Div Environm Sci, Carbon Dioxide Informat Anal Ctr, POB 2008, Oak Ridge, TN 37831 USA. AB Increasing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases are widely expected to cause global warming and other climatic changes. It is important to establish priorities for reducing greenhouse-gas emissions, so that resources can be allocated efficiently and effectively. This is a global problem, and it is possible, on a global scale, to identify those activities whose emissions have the greatest potential for enhancing the greenhouse effect. However, perspectives from smaller scales must be appreciated, because it is on scales down to the local level that response measures will be implemented, This paper analyzes the relative importance of emissions from the many individual sources, on scales ranging from global to national to subnational. Individual country perspectives and proposed policy measures and those of subnational political entities exhibit some commonalities but differ among themselves and from a global-scale perspective in detail. CR *CSEPP, 1991, POL IMP GREENH WARM *DEP PUBL SERV, 1994, VERM GREENH GAS EM E *IPCC, 1991, CLIM CHANG IPCC RESP *US DOE, 1994, CLIM CHANG ACT PLAN *US DOS, 1993, CLIM CHANG ACT PLAN *US DOS, 1997, DEP STAT PUBL *US EPA, 1995, METH EST GREENH GAS *US EPA, 1999, 236R99003 EPA OFF PO *VERM DEP PUBL SER, 1998, FUEL VERM FUT COMPR ADGER WN, 1993, AMBIO, V22, P509 ALBER SC, 1997, INVENTORY HAWAII GRE ALBER SC, 1998, HAWAII CLIMATE CHANG BEM S, 1995, INDIANA GREENHOUSE G BODEN TA, 1994, TRENDS 93 COMPENDIUM BRUCE JP, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 199K BUTLER JH, 1999, NATURE, V399, P749 ELKINS JW, 1993, NATURE, V364, P780 HOUGHTON JT, 1990, CLIMATE CHANGE IPCC HOUGHTON JT, 1992, CLIMAGE CHANGE 1992 HOUGHTON JT, 1995, CLIMAGE CHANGE 1995 NELSON R, 1997, GREENHOUSE GAS EMISS RODHE H, 1991, AMBIO, V20, P143 SWART RJ, 1993, AMBIO, V22, P518 WATSON RT, 1998, REGIONAL IMPACTS CLI, V1, P1 WILBANKS TJ, 1999, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V43, P601 NR 25 TC 2 J9 ENVIRON MANAGE BP 360 EP 372 PY 2002 PD MAR VL 29 IS 3 GA 522YX UT ISI:000173925500005 ER PT J AU Cutter, SL Emrich, CT TI Moral hazard, social catastrophe: The changing face of vulnerability along the hurricane coasts SO ANNALS OF THE AMERICAN ACADEMY OF POLITICAL AND SOCIAL SCIENCE LA English DT Article C1 Univ S Carolina, Hazards Res Lab, Columbia, SC 29208 USA. RP Cutter, SL, Univ S Carolina, Hazards Res Lab, Columbia, SC 29208 USA. AB The social vulnerability of the American population is not evenly distributed among social groups or between places. Some regions may be more susceptible to the impacts of hazards than other places based on the characteristics of the people residing within them. As we saw with Hurricane Katrina, when coupled with residencies in high-risk areas such as the hurricane coasts, differential vulnerabilities can lead to catastrophic results. The geographic discrepancies in social vulnerability also necessitate different mitigation, post-response, and recovery actions. Given temporal and spatial changes in soci al vulnerability in the future, a one-size-fits-all approach to preparedness, response, recovery, and mitigation may be the least effective in reducing vulnerability or improving local resilience to hazards. CR *US DEP HLTH ED WE, 1969, TOW SOC REP *US OFF MAN BUDG, 1973, SOC IND 1973 SEL STA BERRY BJL, 1977, SOCIAL BURDENS ENV P BORUFF BJ, 2005, J COASTAL RES, V21, P932 CROSSETT KM, 2004, POPULATION TRENDS CO CUTTER SL, 1996, PROG HUM GEOG, V20, P529 CUTTER SL, 2000, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V90, P713 CUTTER SL, 2003, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V93, P1 CUTTER SL, 2003, SOC SCI QUART, V84, P242 HEINZ HJ, 2002, HUMAN LINKS COASTAL KATES RW, 1977, RECONSTRUCTION FOLLO, P261 LASKA S, 2004, NATURAL HAZARDS OBSE, V29 MALONEY J, 1973, SOCIAL VULNERABILITY PACIONE M, 1990, URBAN GEOGR, V11, P1 PACIONE M, 2003, URBAN GEOGR, V24, P314 SMITH DM, 1973, GEOGRAPHY SOCIAL WEL NR 16 TC 0 J9 ANN AMER ACAD POLIT SOC SCI BP 102 EP 112 PY 2006 PD MAR VL 604 GA 016GX UT ISI:000235609800006 ER PT J AU Abildtrup, J Audsley, E Fekete-Farkas, M Giupponi, C Gylling, M Rosato, P Rounsevell, MDA TI Socio-economic scenario development for the assessment of climate change impacts on agricultural land use: a pairwise comparison approach SO ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE & POLICY LA English DT Article C1 Royal Vet & Agr Univ, Danish Res Inst Food Econ, DK-1958 Frederiksberg C, Denmark. Silsoe Res Inst, Math & Decis Syst Grp, Silsoe MK45 4HS, Beds, England. Szent Istvan Univ, Dept Econ, H-2103 Godollo, Hungary. Univ Milan, Dept Crop Prod, I-20133 Milan, Italy. Univ Trieste, Dipartimento Ingn Civile, I-34127 Trieste, Italy. Catholic Univ Louvain, Dept Geog, B-3000 Louvain, Belgium. RP Abildtrup, J, Royal Vet & Agr Univ, Danish Res Inst Food Econ, Rolighedsvej 25, DK-1958 Frederiksberg C, Denmark. AB Assessment of the vulnerability of agriculture to climate change is strongly dependent on concurrent changes in socio-economic development pathways. This paper presents an integrated approach to the construction of socio-economic scenarios required for the analysis of climate change impacts on European agricultural land use. The scenarios are interpreted from the storylines described in the intergovernmental panel on climate change (IPCC) special report on emission scenarios (SRES), which ensures internal consistency between the evolution of socio-economics and climate change. A stepwise downscaling procedure based on expert-judgement and pairwise comparison is presented to obtain quantitative socio-economic parameters, e.g. prices and productivity estimates that are input to the ACCELERATES integrated land use model. in the first step, the global driving forces are identified and quantified for each of the four SRES scenario families. In the second step, European agricultural driving forces are derived for each scenario from global driving forces. Finally, parameters for the agricultural land use model are quantified. The stepwise procedure is appropriate when developing socio-economic scenarios that are consistent with climate change scenarios used in climate impact studies. Furthermore, the pairwise comparison approach developed by Saaty [Saaty, T.L., 1980. The Analytic Hierarchy Process. McGraw Hill, New York] provides a useful tool for the quantification from narrative storylines of scenario drivers and model parameters. Descriptions of the narratives are, however, helpful at each step to facilitate the discussion and communication of the resulting scenarios. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *IMAGE TEAM, 2001, RIVM CD ROM PUBL NAT *IPCC, 1994, 1 SESS C PART UN FRA *OECD, 2001, NEA WORKSH SCEN DEV *UK CLIM IMP PROGR, 2001, SOC SCEN CLIM CHANG *WBCSD, 1999, EN 2005 RISK BUS ABILTRUP J, 2002, REGIONAL AGR LABOUR ADAMS RM, 1999, IMPACT CLIMATE CHANG, P18 ALEXANDRATOS N, 1995, AGR 2010 FAO STUDY ARNELL NW, 2004, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V14, P3 BERKHOUT F, 2002, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V12, P83 BERKHOUT R, 1999, NONCLIMATE FUTURE ST CARTER TR, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, P145 DALY HE, 1989, COMMON GOOD REDIRECT DARWIN R, 1995, 703 USDA EC RES SERV EWERT F, 2005, AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON, V107, P101 FEKETEFARKAS M, 2003, 80 EAAE SEM NEW POL GAFFIN SR, 2004, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V14, P105 HERTEL TW, 1997, GLOBAL TRADE ANAL MO HOLMAN IP, 2001, REGIONAL CLIMATE CHA HOLMAN IP, 2005, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V71, P43 HOLMAN IP, 2005, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V71, P9 KAISER HM, 1993, AM J AGR ECON, V75, P308 LORENZONI I, 2000, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V10, P145 LORENZONI I, 2000, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V10, P57 MEYER MA, 1991, ELICITING ANAL EXPER, V5 MITCHELL TD, 2004, 55 TYND CTR CLIM CHA NAKICENOVIC N, 2000, SPECIAL REPORT EMISS PARRY ML, 1999, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V9, P51 PARRY ML, 2000, ASSESSMENT POTENTIAL ROSATO P, 2003, CLIMATE CHANGE MEDIT, P133 ROSENZWEIG C, 1994, NATURE, V367, P133 ROTMANS J, 2000, FUTURES, V32, P809 ROUNSEVELL MDA, 2000, CLIMATE SCENARIOS AG, P21 ROUNSEVELL MDA, 2005, AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON, V107, P117 SAATY RW, 1987, MATH MODELING, V9, P3 SAATY TL, 1976, SOCIOECONOMIC PLANNI, V10, P251 SAATY TL, 1980, ANAL HIERARCHY PROCE SAATY TL, 2001, MODELS METHODS CONCE SHACKLEY S, 2001, REGIONAL CLIMATE CHA, P31 TOL RSJ, 1998, HDB METHODS CLIMATE TSIGAS ME, 1997, GLOBAL TRADE ANAL MO, P280 ZIO E, 1996, RELIAB ENG SYST SAFE, V53, P127 NR 42 TC 3 J9 ENVIRON SCI POLICY BP 101 EP 115 PY 2006 VL 9 IS 2 GA 028TG UT ISI:000236511100002 ER PT J AU Hutyra, LR Munger, JW Nobre, CA Saleska, SR Vieira, SA Wofsy, SC TI Climatic variability and vegetation vulnerability in Amazonia SO GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS LA English DT Article C1 Harvard Univ, Dept Earth & Planetary Sci, Cambridge, MA 02138 USA. Harvard Univ, Div Engn & Appl Sci, Cambridge, MA 02138 USA. Inst Nacl Pesquisas Espaciais, Ctr Previsao Tempo & Estudos Climat, BR-12630000 Cachoeira Paulista, SP, Brazil. Univ Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85721 USA. USP, CENA, Lab Ecol Isotop, BR-13400970 Piracicaba, SP, Brazil. RP Hutyra, LR, Harvard Univ, Dept Earth & Planetary Sci, 20 Oxford St, Cambridge, MA 02138 USA. AB Models of climate change predict close coupling between increases in aridity and conversion of Amazonian forests to savanna. Here we assess the vulnerability and resilience of Amazonian vegetation to climate change by analyzing observed climate-vegetation relationships using climate data, observed vegetation distributions, and evapotranspiration rates inferred from eddy flux data. We found that drought frequency is an excellent predictor of the forest-savanna boundary, indicating the key role of extreme climatic events for inducing vegetation change, and highlighting particularly vulnerable regions of Amazonia. 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Klagenfurt Univ, Dept Cultural Anal, IFF, Vienna, Austria. Univ Colorado, Boulder, CO 80309 USA. IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria. INSEAD, Fontainebleau, France. Univ Nacl Autonoma Mexico, Sch Human Evolut & Social Change, Global Inst Sustainabil, Mexico City 04510, DF, Mexico. Univ Nacl Autonoma Mexico, Ctr Invest Ecosistemas, Mexico City 04510, DF, Mexico. Univ Saskatchewan, Dept Hist, Saskatoon, SK, Canada. Univ Calif Santa Barbara, Environm Studies Program, Santa Barbara, CA 93106 USA. Innsbruck Univ, Dept Zool & Limnol, A-6020 Innsbruck, Austria. Ludwig Boltzmann Inst Rural Hist, St Polten, Austria. PIK, Potsdam, Germany. Fed Environm Agcy, Vienna, Austria. Arizona State Univ, Int Inst Sustainabil, Tempe, AZ 85287 USA. Univ Copenhagen, Inst Geog, Copenhagen, Denmark. Univ Vienna, Fac Life Sci, Ecol Ctr, Vienna, Austria. RP Haberl, H, Klagenfurt Univ, Inst Social Ecol, IFF, Vienna, Austria. AB Concerns about global environmental change challenge long term ecological research (LTER) to go beyond traditional disciplinary scientific research to produce knowledge that can guide society toward more sustainable development. Reporting the outcomes of a 2 d interdisciplinary workshop, this article proposes novel concepts to substantially expand LTER by including the human dimension. We feel that such an integration warrants the insertion of a new letter in the acronym, changing it from LTER to LTSER, "Long-Term Socioecological Research," with a focus on coupled socioecological systems. We discuss scientific challenges such as the necessity to link biophysical processes to governance and communication, the need to consider patterns and processes across several spatial and temporal scales, and the difficulties of combining data from in-situ measurements with statistical data, cadastral surveys, and soft knowledge from the humanities. We stress the importance of including prefossil fuel system baseline data as well as maintaining the often delicate balance between monitoring and predictive or explanatory modeling. Moreover, it is challenging to organize a continuous process of cross-fertilization between rich descriptive and causal-analytic local case studies and theory/modeling-oriented generalizations. Conceptual insights are used to derive conclusions for the design of infrastructures needed for long-term socioecological research. 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YOUNG OR, 2002, MILLENNIAL REFLECTIO, P176 ZERNER C, 2002, PEOPLE PLANTS JUSTIC, P3 ZIMMERER KS, 2003, POLITICAL ECOLOGY IN ZONNEVELD JIS, 1990, CHANGING LANDSCAPES NR 202 TC 1 J9 ECOL SOC BP 13 PY 2006 PD DEC VL 11 IS 2 GA 123FD UT ISI:000243280800040 ER PT J AU Pantuliano, S TI From food aid to livelihoods support: rethinking the role of WFP in eastern Sudan SO DISASTERS LA English DT Article AB Despite more than 20 years of distribution of free emergency food in eastern Sudan (38 years in the case of refugees) Global Acute Malnutrition rates are currently the highest in the country. There has been no real improvement in the chronic livelihoods vulnerability that affects people in the region-particularly pastoralists. Food security must be seen from an informed livelihoods perspective. While food aid may still be required as part of transition, WFP must rethink its assistance strategy and advocate for complementarity in the efforts by development actors working across a range of sectors. Alternative models and interventions focused on the rehabilitation of markets and the development of' cargo nets' for the destitute, including cash transfers, must be developed and tested. Land tenure issues should be given particular attention. Food aid will probably remain an important element in the overall response, but its significance relative to other less developed forms of interventions should be reassessed. CR *UNDP, 2005, ACC NOT AV AN FOOD S *UNHCR, 2006, COUNTR OP PLAN *WFP UNHCR COR, 2004, JOINT NEEDS ASS MISS *WFP, 2001, SUMM REP EV SUD PRO *WFP, 2004, SUMM REP EV SUD EM O *WFP, 2005, FEAS STUD SINK LOC C *WFP, 2006, SUD ANN NEEDS ASS 20 *WORLD BANK, 2003, SUD STAB REC ABDELATI H, 1991, 3 RESAP KHART U PRES ATKINSON M, 2004, FOOD SECURITY ANAL R AYERS A, 1987, ROLE IMPACT FOOD AID BARRETT C, 2005, FOOD AID 50 YEARS RE BARRETT C, 2006, STATE FOOD AGR 2006 CLAY E, 1998, FUTURE FOOD AID POLI CLAY E, 2001, REFORMING FOOD AID T CUTLER P, 1986, DISASTERS, V10, P181 DEVEREUX S, 2006, IDENTIFICATION METHO ENGLISH J, 1987, OXFAM TARGETING MONI HARVEY P, 2005, DEPENDENCY HUMANITAR HOFMANN CA, 2004, 17 VO DEV I HUM POL HOGG R, 1987, RELIEF DEV RED SEA P MORTON J, 1986, OXFAM PORT SUDAN RUR MORTON J, 1993, CONFLICT DECLINE PAS MUIR A, 1986, RED SEA PROVINCE TOU NIBLOCK T, 1987, CLASS POWER SUDAN DY PANTULIANO S, 2000, THESIS U LEEDS PANTULIANO S, 2002, PASTORAL LAND TENSUR, V14 WALKER P, 1987, FOOD RECOVERY FOOD M NR 28 TC 0 J9 DISASTERS BP S77 EP S90 PY 2007 PD MAR VL 31 GA 141QU UT ISI:000244594600006 ER PT J AU Sutherland, J Gouldby, B TI Vulnerability of coastal defences to climate change SO PROCEEDINGS OF THE INSTITUTION OF CIVIL ENGINEERS-WATER AND MARITIME ENGINEERING LA English DT Article AB Climate change will alter wave and water level conditions and hence affect the vulnerability of coastal defence structures. The likely changes in vulnerability are important to the stakeholders in new and existing coastal defence structures, as decision-makers may reasonably be expected to include the probable effects of climate change in their planning processes. Time series of present and future waves and water levels were generated using a climate model. These were used to calculate the changes in overtopping rates and in the longshore drift of sediment in front of sea defences. The results indicate that there will be considerable increases in overtopping rates if present-day defences and beaches are unchanged by 2075. However, the inclusion of sea level rise predictions in design calculations should account for the majority of the predicted change in overtopping. The work also indicates that future changes in longshore transport are unlikely to be greater than current levels of uncertainty, and these should be considered in the normal course of sensitivity testing. Qualitative and quantitative differences in future changes in vulnerability were found between the five sites examined, as they had different tidal ranges, wave climates, surge levels and joint probabilities. CR *COAST ENG RES CTR, 1984, SHOR PROT MAN *DEFRA, 2001, NAT APPR ASS RISK FL BESLEY P, 1999, 178 R D W BESLEY PB, 1988, P INT C COASTL STRUC, P46 BRAMPTON AH, 1999, WAVE CLIMATE CHANGE FLATHER RA, 2000, CLIMATE SCENARIOS WA, P66 HAWKES PJ, 1987, P ADV UND TECHN OC S, V12, P73 HOUGHTON JT, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 KOMAR PD, 1970, J GEOPHYS RES, V75, P5914 LEGGETT J, 1992, CLIMATE CHANGE 1992, P75 MAY W, 2001, CLIM DYNAM, V17, P407 OWEN MW, 1980, 924 EX OWEN MW, 1997, P MAFF C RIV COAST E SUTHERLAND J, 2001, P 36 DEFRA C RIV COA SUTHERLAND J, 2002, COASTAL DEFENCE VULN NR 15 TC 0 J9 PROC INST CIVIL ENG-WATER MAR BP 137 EP 145 PY 2003 PD JUN VL 156 IS 2 GA 699DW UT ISI:000184041500004 ER PT J AU Sanyal, J Lu, XX TI Remote sensing and GIS-based flood vulnerability assessment of human settlements: a case study of Gangetic West Bengal, India SO HYDROLOGICAL PROCESSES LA English DT Article C1 Natl Univ Singapore, Dept Geog, Singapore 117570, Singapore. RP Sanyal, J, Natl Univ Singapore, Dept Geog, 1 Arts Link, Singapore 117570, Singapore. AB Flooding due to excessive rainfall in a short period of time is a frequent hazard in the flood plains of monsoon Asia. In late September 2000, a devastating flood stuck Gangetic West Bengal, India. This particular event has been selected for this study. Instead of following the conventional approach of flooded area delineation and overall damage estimation, this paper seeks to identify the rural settlements that are vulnerable to floods of a given magnitude. Vulnerability of a rural settlement is perceived as a function of two factors: the presence of deep flood water in and around the settlement and its proximity to an elevated area for temporary shelter during an extreme hydrological event. Landsat ETM+ images acquired on 30 September 2000 have been used to identify the non-flooded areas within the flooded zone. Particular effort has been made to differentiate land from water under cloud shadow. ASTER digital elevation data have been used to assess accuracy and rectify the classified image. The presence of large numbers of trees around rural settlements made it particularly difficult to extract the flooded areas from their spectral signatures in the visible and infrared bands. ERS-1 synthetic aperture radar data are found particularly useful for extracting the settlement areas surrounded by trees. Finally, all information extracted from satellite imageries are imported into ArcGIS, and spatial analysis is carried out to identify the settlements vulnerable to river inundation. Copyright (c) 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 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RP Williams, G, Univ Keele, Dept Environm Social Sci, Keele ST5 5BG, Staffs, England. AB Recent interest in poverty and poverty relief has included debates that have moved beyond narrow concerns of consumption and income generation. Sen's research on entitlements and capabilities revolutionized approaches to poverty in the 1980s, and his work has itself been open to critical appraisals that have stressed empowerment and vulnerability as issues of equal importance. Some of these theoretical debates are briefly reviewed here, after which the frameworks for analysis that they suggest are applied to the study of rural poverty in West Bengal. The two tasks that the paper then sets itself are to illustrate the empirical value of broader conceptualizations of poverty, and to highlight the methodological difficulties that they raise. 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RP Hansen, JW, Int Res Inst Climate Predict, Palisades, NY 10964 USA. AB Advances in our ability to predict climate fluctuations months in advance suggest opportunity to improve management of climatic risk in agriculture, but only if particular conditions are in place. This paper outlines prerequisites to beneficial forecast use; highlights key issues, approaches and challenges related to each; and suggests an evolutionary strategy. The first prerequisite is that forecast information must address a need that is both real and perceived. Second, benefit arises only through viable decision options that are sensitive to forecast information. Third, benefit depends on prediction of the components of climate variability that are relevant to viable decisions. Fourth, appropriate forecast use requires effective communication of relevant information. Finally, sustained use requires institutional commitment and favorable policies. It is useful to consider three phases of effort: an exploratory phase to gain understanding and assess potential, a pilot phase characterized by co-learning between researchers and target decision makers, and an operational phase focusing on engaging and equipping relevant institutions. Although examples of use and potential use, and advances in institutional support, are cause for optimism, use of climate prediction by agriculture s still too new to support strong generalizations about its value. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. 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Univ Miami, Dept Econ, Coral Gables, FL 33134 USA. LECG, Los Angeles, CA 90071 USA. RP Kolstad, CD, Univ Calif Santa Barbara, Bren Sch Environm Sci & Management, Dept Econ, Santa Barbara, CA 93106 USA. AB The paper is concerned with the case whereby the distribution of a firm's productivity shocks changes without the knowledge of the firm. Over time the firm learns about the nature and extent of the change in the distribution of the shock and adjusts, incurring adjustment costs in the process. The long-run loss in profits (+/-) due to the shift in the distribution we term the equilibrium response. The transitory loss in profits, incurred while the firm is learning about the distribution shift, is termed the adjustment cost. The theory is then applied to the problem of measuring adjustment costs in the face of imperfectly observed climate change in agriculture. The empirical part of the paper involves estimating a restricted profit function for agricultural land in a five-state region of the Midwest US as a function of prices, land characteristics, actual weather realizations and expected weather. We then simulate the effect of an unobserved climate shock, where learning about the climate shock is by observing the weather and updating prior knowledge using Bayes Rule. We find adjustment costs to climate change are 1.4% of annual land rents. (c) 2005 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. CR *NAT AC SCI, 1992, PAN POL IMPL GREENH ADAMS RM, 1990, NATURE, V345, P219 ADAMS RM, 1995, CONTEMP ECON POLICY, V13, P10 ADAMS RM, 1999, EC IMPACT CLIMATE CH BERNDT ER, 1981, MODELING MEASURING N, P259 COOLEY T, 1995, FRONTIERS BUSINESS C, CH1 DEGROOT MH, 1970, OPTIMAL STAT DECISIO DIEWERT WE, 1987, ECONOMETRICA, V55, P43 ELLISON G, 1993, J POLIT ECON, V101, P612 FISCHER AJ, 1996, AM J AGR ECON, V78, P1073 FISHER AC, 1997, J ENVIRON ECON MANAG, V34, P207 HANSEN LR, 1991, J AGR ECON RES, V43, P18 JEPMA CJ, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995 JOHNSON S, 1970, REV ECON STAT, V52, P173 KAISER HM, 1993, AM J AGR ECON, V75, P387 KANE SM, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P75 KAUFMANN RK, 1997, AM J AGR ECON, V79, P178 KAYLEN MS, 1992, APPL ECON, V24, P513 KELLY DL, 1999, J ECON DYN CONTROL, V23, P491 KOLSTAD CD, 1998, 2928 U CAL SANT BARB KOLSTAD CD, 2001, HDB ENV EC LUCAS RE, 1967, J POLITICAL EC, V75, P321 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 MCFADDEN D, 1984, ADV APPL MICROECONOM, V3 MENDELSOHN R, 1994, AM ECON REV, V84, P753 MENDELSOHN R, 1996, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V80, P55 MENDELSOHN R, 1999, EC IMPACT CLIMATE CH MITCHELL GT, 2000, THESIS U CALIFORNIA MJELDE JW, 1998, AM J AGR ECON, V80, P1089 PEARCE D, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, CH6 PERRIN RK, 1990, MEASURING POTENTIAL POPE RD, 1994, AM J AGR ECON, V76, P196 REILLY JM, 1995, AM J AGR ECON, V77, P727 REILLY JM, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995 REILLY JM, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P253 REILLY JM, 2003, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V57, P43 ROSENBERG NJ, 1992, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V21, P385 ROZENZWEIG C, 1994, NATURE, V367, P133 SCHIMMELPFENNIG D, 1996, AER740 USDA SCHLENKER W, 2004, 941 CUDARE U CAL DEP SCHLENKER W, 2004, IN PRESS REV EC STAT SCHNEIDER S, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, CH1 SCHNEIDER SH, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P203 SLADE ME, 1993, HDB NATURAL RESOURCE, V3 SMITH B, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P223 SOHNGEN B, 1998, AM ECON REV, V88, P686 SOLOW AR, 1998, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V39, P47 THOMPSON LM, 1986, AGRON J, V78, P649 WATSON R, 2002, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 WEBER EU, 1994, FARMERS DECISION MAK WESTCOTT PC, 1989, SITUATION OUTLOOK RE YOHE GW, 1995, J ENVIRON ECON MANAG, V39, P47 YOHE GW, 1996, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V32, P387 YOHE GW, 1999, EC IMPACT CLIMATE CH NR 54 TC 1 J9 J ENVIRON ECON MANAGE BP 468 EP 495 PY 2005 PD NOV VL 50 IS 3 GA 983HU UT ISI:000233223000002 ER PT J AU Uitto, JI TI The geography of disaster vulnerability in megacities - A theoretical framework SO APPLIED GEOGRAPHY LA English DT Article C1 UN Univ, Acad Div, Shibuya Ku, Tokyo 150, Japan. RP Uitto, JI, UN Univ, Acad Div, Shibuya Ku, 53-70,Jingumae 5 Chome, Tokyo 150, Japan. AB Vulnerability assessments are widely employed to assist planning for major natural disasters in many cities, including metropolitan Tokyo, Continuing assessments carried out by the Tokyo Metropolitan Government use geographical information systems as analytical tools. They rely almost exclusively on data about the physical environment, on counts of human numbers at risk and on information about selected economic dimensions of hazard, Other vitally important aspects of social vulnerability are neglected. As a first step towards developing improved socially sensitive vulnerability assessments, three universities in Japan and the USA have initiated a pilot study of vulnerability to cyclones and earthquakes among the homeless population of Tokyo, This is intended to develop a reliable model of social vulnerability among one marginalized group that can be used to improve disaster planning and management among the homeless and other 'special needs' groups in megacities at risk throughout the world. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *RED CROSS, 1994, WORLD C NAT DIS RED *RMS INC, 1995, WHAT 1923 EARTHQ STR *TOK METR GOV, 1991, TOK NI OKERU JISH HI *TOK METR GOV, 1993, AR VULN ASS EARTHQ *TOK METR GOV, 1994, TOK METR GOV MUN LIB, V28 *TOK METR GOV, 1995, AR TOSH MOND TAIO NO *TOK METR GOV, 1996, PLANN TOK 1996 BLAIKIE PM, 1994, RISK NATURAL HAZARDS, V1, P1 BURTON I, 1978, ENV HAZARD, V1, P1 CHEN NYP, 1994, MEGACITY GROWTH FUTU, P17 DEVAS N, 1993, MANAGING FAST GROWIN, P1 FUCHS RJ, 1994, MEGA CITY GROWTH FUT HADFIELD P, 1991, COMING TOKYO EARTHQU KATAYAMA T, 1996, COMMUNICATION 0704 KIREMIDJIAN AS, 1995, S CAT RISK MAN INS R MEGURO K, 1995, P 5 INT C SEISM ZON, P60 MITCHELL JK, 1995, GEOJOURNAL, V37, P303 MITCHELL JK, 1996, LONG ROAD RECOVERY C PARKER D, 1995, GEOJOURNAL, V37, P295 SETAGAYAKU, 1996, SETAGAYA KU BOUSAI K SHAH HC, 1995, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V5, P65 SHAH HC, 1996, PREPARING BIG ONE TO, P34 SUZUKI K, 1995, UNCRD RES REPORT SER, V12, P42 TAKAHASHI S, 1998, APPL GEOGR, V18, P17 TUCKER BE, 1994, NATO ASI SERIES E, V271 UITTO JI, 1995, KENCHIKU ZASHI J ARC, V110, P26 UITTO JI, 1996, PREPARING BIG ONE TO VELASQUEZ GT, 1995, UNCRD RES REPORT SER, V12, P217 WISNER B, 1998, APPL GEOGR, V18, P25 YAMAZAKI F, 1995, P 5 INT C SEISM ZON, P1416 NR 30 TC 4 J9 APPL GEOGR BP 7 EP 16 PY 1998 PD JAN VL 18 IS 1 GA 102JM UT ISI:000074921100002 ER PT J AU Hareau, A Hofstadter, R Saizar, A TI Vulnerability to climate change in Uruguay: potential impacts on the agricultural and coastal resource sectors and response capabilities SO CLIMATE RESEARCH LA English DT Article C1 Sistemas Hidraulicos Ltda, Montevideo 11100, Uruguay. Direcc Nacl Med Ambiente, Montevideo 11100, Uruguay. RP Hareau, A, Paraguay 1321,Esc 802, Montevideo 11100, Uruguay. AB Uruguay's economy is mostly based on the use of natural resources that are affected by the strongly variable climate conditions to which the country is exposed. Climate changes induced by greenhouse warming are likely to enhance the country's vulnerability to environmental phenomena and are thus a matter of concern. The analyses carried out, particularly regarding crops, grasslands, and coastal resources, have evidenced the need to develop advanced response strategies framed within sectoral development plans. The type and sign of the effect on crop production would vary, depending on the crop involved. Grassland production is likely to be favored by increased temperature conditions, while precipitation deficiencies or increased variability would be detrimental. The predicted changes in sea level, even the most conservative, would put at risk high capital value land and infrastructure along the Uruguayan coast. Since the coast is frequently affected by storms, the overall vulnerability would also be determined by changes in storm patterns. It was observed that while appropriate conditions are encountered at both the technical and political levels to address changes that may affect the agricultural sector, a considerable effort is required to develop integrated coastal zone management plans that combine general and private interests and include responses to climate change. CR *CNCG, 1997, UR CLIM CHANG COUNTR *IPCC, 1992, GLOB CLIM CHANG RIS BAETHGEN WE, 1994, IMPLICATIONS CLIMATE BAETHGEN WE, 1995, CLIMATE CHANGE AGR A, V59, P207 BRUUN P, 1962, J WATERWAYS HARBORS, V88, P117 CHIARA JP, 1997, CLIMATE RES, V9, P9 DOUGLAS BC, 1991, J GEOPHYS RES, V96, P6981 FORBES E, 1996, VARIACIONES NIVEL ME HOFSTADTER R, 1997, CLIMATE RES, V9, P101 KOPPEN W, 1931, GRUNDRISS KLIMAKUNDE NICHOLLS RJ, 1995, CLIMATE CHANGES INT, P92 ROMERO R, 1996, VULNERABILIDAD ADAPT SAIZAR A, 1997, CLIMATE RES, V9, P73 SAWCHIK J, 1996, VULNERABILIDAD ADAPT TEXEIRA L, 1996, MODELO DETERMINACION VOLONTE CR, 1994, P INT WORKSH GLOB CL, P427 VOLONTE CR, 1995, J COASTAL RES, V14, P262 NR 17 TC 0 J9 CLIMATE RES BP 185 EP 193 PY 1999 PD AUG 27 VL 12 IS 2-3 GA V3096 UT ISI:000171723000016 ER PT J AU Bou-Zeid, E El-Fadel, M TI Climate change and water resources in Lebanon and the Middle East SO JOURNAL OF WATER RESOURCES PLANNING AND MANAGEMENT-ASCE LA English DT Article C1 Johns Hopkins Univ, Dept Geog & Environm Engn, Baltimore, MD 21218 USA. Amer Univ Beirut, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Beirut, Lebanon. RP Bou-Zeid, E, Johns Hopkins Univ, Dept Geog & Environm Engn, 313 Ames Hall,3400 N Charles St, Baltimore, MD 21218 USA. AB While the extent of human-induced global warming is inconclusive, the vulnerability of natural systems to rapid changes in climate patterns is regarded as one of the most challenging issues in recent years. Water resources are a main component of natural systems that might be affected by climate change. This paper characterizes water resources in several Middle Eastern countries and evaluates regional climate predictions for various scenarios using general circulation models. The country of Lebanon is selected as a case study for an in-depth investigation with potential impacts on the water budget and soil moisture as indicators. Adaptation measures are assessed, with a focus on no-regret actions in the context of local socioeconomic and environmental frameworks. CR 1999, FOOD AGR ORG STAT DA 2000, ENCY BRITANNICA *ERM, 1995, LEB ASS STAT ENV *ESCWA, 1996, EESCWAENR1996WG1WP3 *ESCWA, 1999, EESCWAENR1999WG1WP3 *FAO UN, 1997, IRR NEAR E REG FIG *IPCC WGI, 1996, CLIM CHANG 1995 IMP *IPCC WGI, 1996, CLIM CHANG 1995 SCI *IPCC WGI, 1996, IPCC WORKSH REG CLIM *MFA, 1999, SPOTL ISR ISR CHRON *NCRS, 1998, ON GOING WORKS CONTR *UKMO, 1997, CLIM CHANG ITS IMP G *UNFDP, 1999, 1 NAT INV GREENH GAS *WORLD BANK, 1999, DEV DAT COUNTR DAT C, P131 ALATOUT S, 2000, WATER BALANCE E MEDI, P59 AMERY HA, 2000, WATER BALANCES E MED, P13 ARNELL NW, 1996, GLOBAL WARMING RIVER AYOUB G, 2000, SUBMARINE SPRINGS CH BERKOFF J, 1994, STRATEGY MANAGING WA BROOKS DB, 2000, WATER BALANCES E MED CARTER TR, 1999, GUIDELINES USE SCENA CONWAY D, 1996, WATER RESOURCES DEV, V12, P277 ELFADEL M, 2000, IN PRESS WATER RESOU GORDON HB, 1992, CLIM DYNAM, V8, P83 HENNESSY KJ, 1995, INT J CLIMATOL, V15, P591 HOBBS BF, 1997, J ENVIRON MANAGE, V49, P53 JONES RG, 1997, Q J ROY METEOR SOC B, V123, P265 KHAIR K, 1994, WATER AIR SOIL POLL, V78, P37 KOLARS J, 1993, PROSPECTS LEBANON WA LANE ME, 1999, J WATER RES PL-ASCE, V125, P194 LITHWICK H, 2000, WATER BALANCES E MED, P29 LONERGAN SC, 1994, WATERSHED ROLE FRESH MCCULLY P, 1996, SILENCED RIVERS ECOL MEEHL GA, 1994, CLIM DYNAM, V10, P207 NODA A, 1989, J METEOROL SOC JPN, V67, P1057 PATZ JA, 1999, ENV MANAGEMENT MAGAZ POSTEL S, 1993, WATER SCARCITY SPREA SHANNANG E, 2000, WATER BALANCES E MED, P85 SHUVAL H, 1994, WATER SCI TECHNOL, V30, P187 SMITH JB, 1996, WATER RESOURCES DEV, V12, P151 STAR M, 1999, UN ECE ICP INTEGRATE, V325, P31 STRZEPEK K, 1996, WATER RESOUR DEV, V12, P229 STRZEPEK KM, 1996, WATER RESOURCES DEV, V12, P141 STRZEPEK KM, 1998, HDB METHODS CLIMATE, CH6 VANDAM JC, 1999, IMPACTS CLIMATE CHAN WATSON RT, 1998, REGIONAL IMPACTS CLI, V1, P1 WHETTON PH, 1993, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V25, P289 NR 47 TC 0 J9 J WATER RESOUR PLAN MAN-ASCE BP 343 EP 355 PY 2002 PD SEP-OCT VL 128 IS 5 GA 585HG UT ISI:000177518900005 ER PT J AU Nakata, T TI Energy-economic models and the environment SO PROGRESS IN ENERGY AND COMBUSTION SCIENCE LA English DT Article C1 Tohoku Univ, Grad Sch Engn, Sendai, Miyagi 9808579, Japan. RP Nakata, T, Tohoku Univ, Grad Sch Engn, Aoba Yama 01, Sendai, Miyagi 9808579, Japan. AB The current century-an era of environmental awareness-requires energy resources to satisfy the world's future energy demands. We can use current energy use scenarios to help us to understand how energy systems could change. Such scenarios are not an exercise in prophecy; rather they are designed to challenge our thinking in order to make better decisions today. The conventional modeling approach tends to extrapolate changes in energy consumption from historical trends; however, technology innovation sometimes causes drastic reforms in energy systems in the industrial, commercial, residential and transportation sectors. The economic aspects are another key issue to be considered in order to understand future changes in energy systems. The quantity of the energy supply is set to meet the price of the energy demand of end users. This occurs on the condition that the price of the energy supply equates with the price on the demand side under the market mechanism. This paper reviews the various issues associated with the energy-economic model and its application to national energy policies, renewable energy systems, and the global environment. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 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ENERG, V62, P141 YAMAGUCHI T, 2002, B SCI TECHNOL SOC, V22, P110 YAMAJI K, 1993, ENERG POLICY, V21, P123 YAMAJI K, 1998, PROG NUCL ENERG, V32, P235 YANG ZL, 1999, RESOUR ENERGY ECON, V21, P67 YOHE GW, 1995, EXERCISES HEADING EX YOHE GW, 1995, NATO ADV RES WORKSH YOHE GW, 1995, NEAR TERM MITIGATION ZONGXIN W, 1995, ENERGY, V20, P777 NR 267 TC 0 J9 PROG ENERG COMBUST SCI BP 417 EP 475 PY 2004 VL 30 IS 4 GA 826DZ UT ISI:000221810800003 ER PT J AU Parry, ML Arnell, NW McMichael, AJ Nicholls, RJ Martens, P Kovats, RS Livermore, MTJ Rosenzweig, C Iglesias, A Fischer, G TI Millions at risk: defining critical climate change threats and targets SO GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS LA English DT Editorial Material C1 Univ E Anglia, Sch Environm Sci, Jackson Environm Inst, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. Univ Southampton, Dept Geog, Southampton, Hants, England. London Sch Hyg & Trop Med, London, England. Middlesex Univ, Flood Hazard Res Ctr, Enfield, Middx, England. Univ Maastricht, Maastricht, Netherlands. Goddard Inst Space Studies, New York, NY USA. Univ Politecn Madrid, Madrid, Spain. Int Inst Appl Syst Anal, Laxenburg, Austria. RP Parry, ML, Univ E Anglia, Sch Environm Sci, Jackson Environm Inst, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. CR *IPCC, 2000, IPCC SPEC REP EM SCE MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 *IPCC, 2001, CLIM CHANG 2001 SCI ARNELL NW, IN PRESS CLIMATE CHA JOHNS TC, 1997, CLIM DYNAM, V13, P103 PARRY ML, 1999, GLOBAL ENV CHANGE NR 6 TC 7 J9 GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANGE BP 181 EP 183 PY 2001 PD OCT VL 11 IS 3 GA 488HX UT ISI:000171922800001 ER PT J AU Suarez, F Lombardo, RJ TI Pitting the polluted against the flooded: water resource management in Tigre, Buenos Aires SO ENVIRONMENT AND URBANIZATION LA English DT Article C1 Univ Nacl Gen Sarmiento, Inst Cnurbano, Buenos Aires, DF, Argentina. RP Suarez, F, Univ Nacl Gen Sarmiento, Inst Cnurbano, JM Gutierrez 1150,Los Polvorines B1613GSX, Buenos Aires, DF, Argentina. AB People residing on the banks of the lower stretches of the Reconp quista and Lujan rivers, as well as in the first section of islands in the Tigre delta bordering Greater Buenos Aires, are affected by the water-management operations carried out in the Reconquista. This paper presents the findings of a study to analyze the perception and actual risk of water pollution, drawing on a survey of the population's social vulnerability and an analysis of surface water quality. Exposure to the consumption of polluted water was examined using various parameters, including water quality, pH, turbidity, dissolved oxygen and surface temperature, so as to establish a hazard gradient. A focal area of risk was established, where there was spatial overlapping of social vulnerability with higher hazard levels. Systematic household sampling sought to identify water use and consumption habits, the level of perception of the quality of the resource and the degree of community organization. The level of social conflict relating to the water engineering works was also analyzed. This study demonstrates the need for integrated water resource managcment at an ecosystem-wide level, with a concern for a fairer distribution of the socio-environmcntal costs and benefits. CR *I NAC EST CENS, 2001, NAT CENS POP HOUS *UNIREC, 1999, PROYECT SAN AMB CONT BARAONA R, 1987, PRODUCCION CONOCIMIE CARDARELLI GM, 1991, 9 UNICEF CASTANE PM, 1998, REV INT CONTAM AMBIE, V14, P69 LOEZ CR, 1999, USE ALGAE MONITORING, V3, P72 LOMBARDO RJ, 2000, 2 ANN RES M U NAC GE QUARANTELLI E, 1978, DISASTERS THEORY RES ROBIROSA M, 1990, TURBULENCIA PLANIFIC SUAREZ F, 1997, CARTA EC REG, V9 VELASQUEZ F, 1994, MUNICIPIO SERVICIOS, P271 WILCHESCHAUX G, 1998, AUGE CAIDA LEVANTADA ZALAZAR RH, 1996, CUENCAS HIDRICAS CON NR 13 TC 0 J9 ENVIRON URBAN BP 185 EP 197 PY 2004 PD OCT VL 16 IS 2 GA 873EP UT ISI:000225262800016 ER PT J AU Haddad, BM TI Ranking the adaptive capacity of nations to climate change when socio-political goals are explicit SO GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS LA English DT Article C1 Univ Calif Santa Cruz, Santa Cruz, CA 95064 USA. RP Haddad, BM, Univ Calif Santa Cruz, 1156 High St, Santa Cruz, CA 95064 USA. AB The typical categories for measuring national adaptive capacity to climate change include a nation's wealth, technology, education, information, skills, infrastructure, access to resources, and management capabilities. Resulting rankings predictably mirror more general rankings of economic development, such as the Human Development Index. This approach is incomplete since it does not consider the normative or motivational context of adaptation. For what purpose or toward what goal does a nation aspire, and in that context, what is its adaptive capacity? This paper posits 11 possible national socio-political goals that fall into the three categories of teleological legitimacy, procedural legitimacy, and norm-based decision rules. A model that sorts nations in terms of adaptive capacity based on national socio-political aspirations is presented. While the aspiration of maximizing summed utility matches typical existing rankings, alternative aspirations, including contractarian liberalism, technocratic management, and dictatorial/religious rule alter the rankings. An example describes how this research can potentially inform how priorities are set for international assistance for climate change adaptation. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *DEV COMM, 2003, FALL COMM JOINT MIN MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 ADGER WN, 2000, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V90, P738 ADGER WN, 2001, J INT DEV, V13, P921 ADGER WN, 2004, 7 TYND CTR CLIM CHAN APPELL D, 2001, SCI AM JAN, P18 AUSUBEL JH, 1995, ENERG POLICY, V23, P411 AZAR E, 1980, CONFLICT PEACE DATAB BARNETT J, 2003, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V13, P7 BROWN PG, 1998, ECOL ECON, V26, P11 CLINE W, 1992, EC GLOBAL WARMING COASE RH, 1960, J LAW ECON, V3, P1 DEMELLO L, 2002, INT REV LAW ECON, V22, P257 FANKHAUSER S, 1995, VALUING CLIMATE CHAN HABERMAS J, 1975, LEGITIMATION CRISIS HADDAD B, 2003, INT J SUST DEV WORLD, V6, P265 HANDMER J, 1999, MITIGATION ADAPTATIO, V4, P267 HANEMANN WM, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P571 HANLEY N, 1998, GAME THEORY ENV HELLIWELL JF, 1994, BRIT J POLIT SCI, V24, P225 HOOSON D, 1994, GEOGRAPHY NATL IDENT KEENEY RL, 2001, RISK ANAL, V21, P989 LEARY N, 1999, MITIGATION ADAPTATIO, V4, P307 MENDELSOHN R, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P583 MILLER KA, 1997, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V35, P157 MOSS R, 2001, PNNLSA33642 MULLER B, 2001, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V48, P273 NASH JF, 1950, ECONOMETRICA, V18, P155 NOZICK R, 1974, ANARCHY STATE UTOPIA PHADKE R, 1999, SCI TECHNOL, V27, P236 RAWLS J, 1971, THEORY JUSTICE RAWLS J, 1974, AM ECON REV, V64, P141 ROUSSEAU J, 2002, SOCIAL CONTRACT 1 2 SAGOFF M, 1988, EC EARTH SAVAGE L, 1954, FDN STAT SMITH JB, 1997, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V7, P251 SMITH JB, 2001, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V50, P1 SMITHERS J, 1997, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V7, P129 SOROOSHIAN S, 2002, AQUAT SCI, V64, P317 TAYLOR C, 1992, MULTICULTURALISM POL TOMPKINS EL, 2003, 39 U E ANGL TYND CTR VALADEZ J, 2001, DELIBERATE DEMOCRACY YOHE GW, 1999, MITIGATION ADAPTATIO, V4, P319 NR 43 TC 4 J9 GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANGE BP 165 EP 176 PY 2005 PD JUL VL 15 IS 2 GA 931VR UT ISI:000229514100009 ER PT J AU Moseley, WG Logan, BI TI Conceptualizing hunger dynamics: a critical examination of two famine early warning methodologies in Zimbabwe SO APPLIED GEOGRAPHY LA English DT Article C1 No Illinois Univ, Dept Geog, De Kalb, IL 60115 USA. Univ Georgia, Dept Geog, Athens, GA 30602 USA. RP Moseley, WG, No Illinois Univ, Dept Geog, De Kalb, IL 60115 USA. AB In the wake of droughts in the African Sahel in the 1970s, 19808 and 1990s, international organizations, bilateral donors, African governments and non-governmental organizations set up a number of early warning systems to monitor food security. The objective of this paper is to assess the strengths, weaknesses and conceptual validity of two new famine early warning systems that are being applied in Zimbabwe - the Save the Children Fund-United Kingdom's household food economy approach and the US Agency for International Development Famine Early Warning System's maize equivalency approach. The paper suggests that both approaches are part of a 'third wave of innovation' in the development of early warning methodologies. While both systems share much in common, there are also important differences between them in the way they assemble information and conceptualize hunger. When the two methods were employed in Manjolo Communal Area of Zimbabwe for the 1996/97 period, they produced significantly different food deficit estimates. The divergent deficit predictions are explained by conceptual differences between the two programmes, including differences in unit of analysis, selection and relative weight accorded to data parameters, income group disaggregation, and distinctions between purchased and non-purchased food. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *FAO, 1993, 23 FAO *FEWS FSTAU, 1997, UNPUB VULN AN SADC C *FEWS NEWU, 1998, UNPUB ZIMB CURR VULN *FEWS, 1997, UNPUB VULN AN FEWS *SADC, 1998, SADC FOOD SEC Q B *SADC, 1999, SADC FOOD SEC B *SCF UK, 1996, UNPUB HOUS FOOD EC A *SCF UK, 1997, RISK MAP 1 2 COMP DA *SCF UK, 2000, HOUS FOOD EC APPR RE *WORLD BANK, 1986, POV HUNG ISS OPT FOO ATKINSON SJ, 1992, DISASTERS, V16, P255 BABU SC, 1994, FOOD POLICY, V19, P211 BARROWS R, 1989, 136 U WISC BEHNKE RH, 1993, RANGE ECOLOGY DISEQU BOUDREAU T, 1997, COMBINING RISK MAP A CHAMBERS R, 1989, RURAL DEV PUTTING LA CORBETT J, 1988, WORLD DEV, V16, P1099 DAVIES S, 1996, ADAPTABLE LIVELIHOOD DEWAAL A, 1990, DEV CHANGE, V21, P469 EARL J, 1996, UNPUB RISK MAP REPOR EELE G, 1994, FOOD POLICY, V19, P314 EILERTS G, 1997, COMMUNICATION 0202 EILERTS G, 1997, UNPUB FRANKE R, 1980, SEEDS FAMINE ECOLOGI FRANKENBERGER TR, 1990, ARID LANDS NEWSLETTE, V30, P21 GASPER D, 1993, DEV CHANGE, V4, P679 HADDAD L, 1994, FOOD POLICY, V19, P329 HUTCHINSON CF, 1998, PEOPLE PIXELS LINKIN ILIFFE J, 1990, FAMINE ZIMBABWE JACKSON J, 1999, COMMUNICATION 0616 MAXWELL S, 1992, HOUSEHOLD FOOD SECUR MOYO S, 1995, LAND REFORM QUESTION MUIR A, 1993, UNPUB LIVELIHOOD STR PATTON MQ, 1990, QUALITATIVE EVALUATI QUINN VJ, 1994, FOOD POLICY, V19, P234 SEAMAN J, 1980, DISASTERS, V4, P283 SEAMAN J, 1997, ESGCPINT535EEC FAO SEAMAN J, 2000, DISASTERS, V24, P133 SEN AK, 1981, POVERTY FAMINES ESSA, V1, P1 STRAUSS A, 1990, BASICS QUALITATIVE R SWIFT J, 1985, UNPUB PLANNING DROUG WATTS MJ, 1993, PROG HUM GEOG, V17, P43 ZINYAMA LM, 1986, GEOGRAPHY, V712, P105 ZINYAMA LM, 1990, GEOFORUM, V21, P359 NR 44 TC 0 J9 APPL GEOGR BP 223 EP 248 PY 2001 PD JUL VL 21 IS 3 GA 474MW UT ISI:000171111900002 ER PT J AU DEMARCHI, B TI EFFECTIVE COMMUNICATION BETWEEN THE SCIENTIFIC COMMUNITY AND THE MEDIA SO DISASTERS LA English DT Article RP DEMARCHI, B, COMMISS EUROPEAN COMMUNIT,INST SYST ENGN & INFORMAT,JOINT RES CTR,I-21020 ISPRA,ITALY. AB There are many accounts of hazard warnings which, although received by the target population, have not been appropriately understood and/or acted upon. In all such cases, what needs to be explored is a social relational failure rather than a technological one. Although the relationship between the mass media and the general public has been thoroughly explored, that between the media and the scientific community has been generally neglected. Scientists who communicate warning information to the media must recognise the background, commitments, values, needs and expectations of those they communicate with. Their efforts should be directed at conveying information in a way which is useful to the target population and, at the same time, which appeals to the media. Various "communication strategies" for the achievement of this goal are outlined. CR ANDERSON WA, 1965, SOME OBSERVATIONS DI BATESON G, 1972, STEPS ECOLOGY MIND DEMARCHI B, 1987, SOCIOSYSTEMIC MODEL, P119 DEMARCHI B, 1988, COMUNICAZIONE EMERGE DEMARCHI B, 1990, COMMUNICATING PUBLIC, P389 DEMARCHI B, 1990, EUR12887 EN COMM EUR DEMARCHI B, 1990, PREVENTIQUE, V35, P31 DISOPRA L, 1984, TEORIA VULNERABILITA DRABEK TE, 1986, HUMAN SYSTEM RESPONS DYNES RR, 1987, SOCIOLOGY DISASTERS ECO U, 1965, UNPUB PRIMA PROPOSTA ECO U, 1975, TRATTATO SEMIOTICA G FUNTOWICZ SO, 1990, COMMUNICATING PUBLIC, P367 FUNTOWICZ SO, 1990, UNCERTAINTY QUALITY KREPS GA, 1984, ANNU REV SOCIOL, V10, P309 LIVERMAN DM, 1990, UNDERSTANDING GLOBAL, V1, P27 MACGILL SM, 1987, POLITICS ANXIETY MAISELO R, 1973, PUBLIC OPIN QUART, V55, P2 MONTALCINI RL, 1987, ELOGIO IMPERFEZIONE MOORE WE, 1963, SOCIAL CHANGE NIGG JM, 1987, COMMUNICATION BEHAVI, P103 OTWAY HH, 1990, 2ND C EUR SECT SOC R QUARANTELLI EL, 1972, PSYCHOL TODAY, V5, P66 QUARANTELLI EL, 1977, ANNU REV SOCIOL, V3, P23 QUARANTELLI EL, 1982, SOCIAL EC ASPECTS EA, P453 ROSENGREN KE, 1978, DEVIANCE MASS MEDIA, P131 SANDAM P, 1988, CIVIL PROTECTION, V9, P14 SCANLON J, 1985, PUBLIC ADMIN REV, V45, P123 SHANNON CE, 1949, MATH THEORY COMMUNIC TIMMERMAN P, 1981, ENV MONOGRAPH, V1, P1 TURNER BA, 1978, MAN MADE DISASTERS WATZLAWICK P, 1967, PRAGMATICS HUMAN COM NR 32 TC 0 J9 DISASTERS BP 237 EP 243 PY 1991 VL 15 IS 3 GA GD243 UT ISI:A1991GD24300003 ER PT J AU West, JJ Small, MJ Dowlatabadi, H TI Storms, investor decisions, and the economic impacts of sea level rise SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 Carnegie Mellon Univ, Dept Engn & Publ Policy, Ctr Integrated Study Human Dimens Global Change, Pittsburgh, PA 15213 USA. Carnegie Mellon Univ, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Pittsburgh, PA 15213 USA. RP Dowlatabadi, H, Carnegie Mellon Univ, Dept Engn & Publ Policy, Ctr Integrated Study Human Dimens Global Change, Pittsburgh, PA 15213 USA. AB Past research on the economic impacts of a climate-induced sea level rise has been based on the gradual erosion of the shoreline, and human adaptation. Erosion which is accelerated by sea level rise may also increase the vulnerability to storm damage by decreasing the distance between the shore and structures, and by eroding protective coastal features (dunes). We present methods of assessing this storm damage in coastal regions where structural protection is not pursued. Starting from the bounding cases of no foresight and perfect foresight of Yohe et al. (1996), we use a disaggregated analysis which models the random nature of storms, and models market valuation and private investor decisions dynamically. Using data from the National Flood Insurance Program and a hypothetical community, we estimate that although the total storm damage can be large, the increase in storm damage attributable to sea level rise is small (<5% of total sea level rise damages). These damages, however, could become more significant under other reasonable assumptions or where dune erosion increases storm damage. CR *ARM CORPS, 1989, ATL COAST MAR HURR P *GEN ACC OFF, 1988, RCED88155FS GAO BROWN GM, 1977, REV ECON STAT, V59, P272 BRUUN P, 1962, J WATERWAYS HARBORS, V88, P117 CHAO PT, 1997, WATER RESOUR RES, V33, P817 DENELZEN MGJ, 1992, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V20, P169 DOLAN R, 1972, SCIENCE, V176, P286 EDWARDS SF, 1991, OCEAN SHORELINE MANA, V15, P37 FANKHAUSER S, 1995, ENVIRON PLANN A, V27, P299 FENSTER MS, 1993, J COASTAL RES, V9, P172 SCHNEIDER SH, 1980, ANNU REV ENERG ENV, V5, P107 SMITH JB, 1996, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V32, P313 TITUS JG, 1991, COAST MANAGE, V19, P171 YOHE GW, 1996, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V32, P387 NR 14 TC 1 J9 CLIMATIC CHANGE BP 317 EP 342 PY 2001 PD FEB VL 48 IS 2-3 GA 390AE UT ISI:000166270200003 ER PT J AU YOUNG, RA TI COPING WITH A SEVERE SUSTAINED DROUGHT ON THE COLORADO-RIVER - INTRODUCTION AND OVERVIEW SO WATER RESOURCES BULLETIN LA English DT Article RP YOUNG, RA, COLORADO STATE UNIV,DEPT AGR & RESOURCE ECON,FT COLLINS,CO 80523. AB In arid regions of rapid economic and population growth, adverse effects of droughts are likely to be increasingly serious. This article presents an introduction and overview of the papers collected in this special issue of the Water Resources Bulletin. The papers report on the second phase of a study of the impacts of and responses to a potential severe sustained drought in the Colorado River Basin in the southwestern U.S. The analyses were performed by a consortium of researchers from universities and the private sector located throughout the Basin. Tree ring studies suggest that droughts of duration and magnitude much more serious than any found in the modern records probably occurred in the Basin during earlier centuries. Taking the present-day configuration of the storage and diversion structures and the economic conditions in the Basin as the base-point, the general objectives of the study are three: first, to define a representative Severe Sustained Drought (SSD) and assess its hydrologic impacts; second, to forecast the economic, social and environmental impacts on the southwestern U.S.; and finally, to assess alternative institutional arrangements for coping with an SSD. The evaluation of impacts and policies was conducted with two distinct modeling approaches. One involved hydrologic-economic optimization modeling where water allocation institutions are decision variables. The second was a simulation-gaming approach which allowed ''players'' representing each basin state to interact in a real-time decision making mode in response to the unfolding drought. CR 1973, FED REGISTER, V38, P24766 1983, EC ENV PRINCIPLES GU BOOKER JF, 1995, WATER RESOUR B, V31, P889 BOOKER JF, 1995, WATER RESOURCES B, V31, P877 BURTON I, 1978, ENV HAZARD, V1, P1 CLYDE EW, 1986, NEW COURSES COLORADO, P109 EASTERLING WE, 1987, PLANNING DROUGHT RED, P11 ENGLEBERT EA, 1984, WATER SCARCITY IMPAC FRITTS HC, 1984, WATER SCARCITY IMPAC, P44 GREGG F, 1991, P92115013 HARDING BL, 1995, WATER RESOUR B, V31, P815 HARDY TB, 1995, WATER RESOUR BULL, V31, P867 HENDERSON JL, 1995, WATER RESOURCES B, V31, P907 KENNEY DS, 1995, WATER RESOUR BULL, V31, P837 KNEESE AV, 1986, NEW COURSES COLORADO, P87 KRANNICH RS, 1995, WATER RESOUR BULL, V31, P851 LORD WB, 1995, WATER RESOUR BULL, V31, P939 MAASS A, 1962, DESIGN WATER RESOURC MACDONNELL LJ, 1995, WATER RESOURC B, V31, P825 MEKO D, 1995, WATER RESOUR BULL, V31, P789 PEARCE DW, 1990, EC NATURAL RESOURCES SANGOYOMI TB, 1995, WATER RESOURC B, V31, P925 SCHMID AA, 1989, BENEFIT COST ANAL PO TARBOTON DG, 1995, WATER RESOURCES B, V31, P803 WARRICK RA, 1975, MONOGRAPH NATURAL HA, V4 WHITE GF, 1984, WATER SCARCITY IMPAC, P472 WILHITE DA, 1987, PLANNING DROUGHT RED, P11 WILHITE DA, 1993, DROUGHT ASSESSMENT M YOUNG RA, 1994, COPING SEVERE SUSTAI NR 29 TC 3 J9 WATER RESOUR BULL BP 779 EP 788 PY 1995 PD OCT VL 31 IS 5 GA TB735 UT ISI:A1995TB73500002 ER PT J AU Sohngen, B Mendelsohn, R Sedjo, R TI A global model of climate change impacts on timber markets SO JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL AND RESOURCE ECONOMICS LA English DT Article C1 Ohio State Univ, Dept Agr Environm & Dev Econ, Columbus, OH 43210 USA. Yale Univ, Sch Forestry & Environm Studies, New Haven, CT 06520 USA. RP Sohngen, B, Ohio State Univ, Dept Agr Environm & Dev Econ, Columbus, OH 43210 USA. AB Several papers have now estimated the impact of climate change on national timber markets, but few studies have measured impacts globally. Further, the literature on impacts has focused heavily on changes in productivity and has not integrated movements of biomes as well. Here, a dynamic model of ecological change and economic change is developed to capture the impact of climate change on world timber markets. Climate change is predicted to increase global timber production as producers in low-mid latitude forests react quickly with more productive short-rotation plantations, driving down timber prices. Producers in mid-high latitude forests, in contrast, are likely to be hurt by the lower prices, dieback, and slower productivity increases because of long-rotation species. Consumers in all regions benefit from the lower prices, and the overall impacts of climate change in timber markets are expected to be beneficial, increasing welfare in those markets from 2% to 8%. CR *FAO UN, 1995, 124 FAO *FAO UN, 1996, FOR PROD *FAO UN, 1997, STAT WORLDS FOR BENGTSSON L, 1996, TELLUS A, V48, P57 BINKLEY CS, 1988, IMPACT CLIMATIC VARI, P197 BOWES MD, 1993, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V24, P63 BURTON DM, 1998, ECOL STUD, V128, P777 CLAUSSEN M, 1996, CLIM DYNAM, V12, P371 DARWIN RF, 1996, ECOL ECON, V17, P157 DARWIN RF, 1995, 703 USDA EC RES SERV EMANUEL WR, 1985, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V7, P29 GITAY H, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, P235 HAXELTINE A, 1996, GLOBAL BIOGEOCHEM CY, V10, P693 HAXELTINE A, 1996, THESIS LUND U LUND HOUGHTON JT, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995 JOYCE LA, 1995, J BIOGEOGR, V22, P703 KING GA, 1992, WATER AIR SOIL POLL, V64, P365 MCCARTNEY J, 1999, J SUBST ABUSE TREAT, V16, P255 MELILLO JM, 1993, NATURE, V363, P234 NEILSON RP, 1994, J VEG SCI, V5, P715 OLSON JS, 1983, ORNL5862 PEREZGARCIA J, 1997, EC CARBON SEQUESTRAT, P123 SCHLESINGER ME, 1997, UNPUB GEOGRAPHICAL S SEDJO RA, 1990, LONG TERM ADEQUACY W SHUGART HH, 1986, GREENHOUSE EFFECT CL, P475 SMITH TM, 1993, NATURE, V361, P523 SOHNGEN B, 1998, AM ECON REV, V88, P686 SOHNGEN B, 1999, AM J AGR ECON, V81, P1 SOHNGEN B, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V44, P151 SOLOMON AM, 1986, OECOLOGIA, V68, P567 SOLOMON AM, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, P487 WATSON RT, 1998, REGIONAL IMPACTS CLI, V1, P1 NR 32 TC 1 J9 J AGR RESOUR ECON BP 326 EP 343 PY 2001 PD DEC VL 26 IS 2 GA 518LB UT ISI:000173668900002 ER PT J AU Tschakert, P Olsson, L TI Post-2012 climate action in the broad framework of sustainable development policies: the role of the EU SO CLIMATE POLICY LA English DT Article C1 Penn State Univ, Dept Geog, AESEDA, University Pk, PA 16802 USA. Lund Univ, Ctr Sustainabil Studies, S-22100 Lund, Sweden. RP Tschakert, P, Penn State Univ, Dept Geog, AESEDA, University Pk, PA 16802 USA. AB The linkages between climate change and sustainable development are multiple and profound. Nonetheless, their respective policy regimes have so far evolved along parallel, if not competing, paths. What is lacking to date is a detailed conceptual understanding of the practicability of their integration through cross-sectoral policies and programmes. We propose a synergistic adaptive capacity (SAC) framework that places adaptive capacity and equity at the centre of current policy debates. This framework, based on social vulnerability as a linking element between climate change adaptation and poverty reduction, goes beyond current attempts to 'mainstream' adaptation and mitigation into national development priorities. We outline guidelines on how to operationalize the SAC framework and, at the end, define the role of the EU in promoting and implementing these synergies within the post-2012 climate policy regime. CR ADGER WN, 2001, DEV CHANGE, V32, P681 ADGER WN, 2003, PROGR DEV STUDIES, V3, P179 ALLEN K, 2003, NATURAL DISASTERS DE BROOKS N, 2003, 38 TYND CTR CLIM CHA BROWN K, 2003, 29 TYND CTR CLIM CHA BROWN K, 2003, CLIM POLICY S1, V3, S41 BROWN K, 2004, 16 TYND CTR CLIM CHA BURTON I, 1996, ADAPTING CLIMATE CHA, P55 BURTON I, 1997, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V36, P185 BURTON I, 2002, CLIM POLICY, V2, P145 CHRISTOPLOS I, 2003, NATURAL DISASTERS DE, P95 DANG HH, 2003, CLIM POLICY S1, V3, S81 DAVIDSON O, 2003, CLIM POLICY S1, V3, S97 DOWNING TE, 2003, CLIM POLICY S1, V3, S3 FRANZEL S, 2002, TREES FARM ASSESSING HELLER PS, 2002, FINANC DEV, V39, P29 KALSSON G, 2000, SUSTAINABLE ENERGY S KLEIN RJT, 2003, 40 TYND CTR CLIM CHA KLOOSTER DJ, 2000, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V10, P259 LAL R, 1999, ENVIRON SCI POLICY, V2, P177 MATHUR A, 2004, ADAPTATION MOSAIC SA MATSUO N, 2003, MITIGATION ADAPTATIO, V8, P191 MAZZUCATO V, 2000, RETHINKING SOIL WATE MCDONALD M, 2000, LAND DEGRAD DEV, V11, P343 NAJAM A, 2003, CLIM POLICY S1, V3, S9 NAJAM A, 2003, CLIM POLICY, V3, P221 NELSON KC, 2003, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V13, P19 OLSSON L, 2002, AMBIO, V31, P471 PALM C, 2004, ENV DEV SUSTAINABILI, V6, P145 PELLING M, 2003, NATURAL DISASTERS DE, P3 ROGERS EM, 1995, DIFFUSION INNOVATION SANCHEZ PA, 2000, AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON, V82, P371 SCOONES I, 2001, DYNAMICS DIVERSITY S SMEETS E, 1999, ENV INDICATORS TYPOL SWART RJ, 2003, CLIM POLICY S1, V3, S19 TSCHAKERT P, 2004, AGR SYST, V81, P227 WOLFENSOHN JD, 1997, WORLD BANK BOARD GOV WOLFENSOHN JD, 2004, BROOK I WASH DC 25 J NR 38 TC 0 J9 CLIM POLICY BP 329 EP 348 PY 2005 VL 5 IS 3 GA 991UN UT ISI:000233839700007 ER PT J AU Swart, RJ Raskin, P Robinson, JB TI The problem of the future: sustainability science and scenario analysis SO GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS LA English DT Article C1 Natl Inst Publ Hlth & Environm, NL-3720 BA Bilthoven, Netherlands. Tellus Inst, Stockholm Environm Inst, Boston Ctr, Boston, MA 02116 USA. Univ British Columbia, SDRI, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z2, Canada. RP Swart, RJ, Natl Inst Publ Hlth & Environm, POB 1, NL-3720 BA Bilthoven, Netherlands. AB Unsustainable tendencies in the co-evolution of human and natural systems have stimulated a search for new approaches to understanding complex problems of environment and development. Recently, attention has been drawn to the emergence of a new "sustainability science", and core questions and research strategies have been proposed. A key challenge of sustainability is to examine the range of plausible future pathways of combined social and environmental systems under conditions of uncertainty, surprise, human choice and complexity. This requires charting new scientific territory and expanding the current global change research agenda. Scenario analysis-including new participatory and problem-oriented approaches-provides a powerful tool for integrating knowledge, scanning the future in an organized way and internalizing human choice into sustainability science. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *ICSU, 2002, SER SCI SUST DEV, V1, P20 *IGBP IHDP WCRP DI, 2001, AMST DECL *IPCC, 1990, IPCC RESP STRAT *NAS, 1999, OUR COMM JOURN TRANS *SHELL INT, 2002, PEOPL CONN GLOB SCEN *UNEP, 2002, GLOB ENV OUTL, V3 *UNGA, 2000, MILL DECL *WCED, 1987, OUR COMM FUT BERK M, 1997, INTERACTIVE SCENARIO, P31 BERK MM, 2002, 490200003 RIVM NAT I, P75 CARTER TR, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 COHEN SJ, 1998, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V8, P341 GALLOPIN G, 2001, INT J SOCIAL SCI, V168, P219 HAFELE W, 1981, ENERGY FINITE WORLD HERRERA A, 1976, CATASTROPHE NEW SOC KAHN H, 1967, YEAR 2000 FRAMEWORK KATES RW, 2001, SCIENCE, V292, P641 KLABBERS J, 1996, MITIGATION ADAPTATIO, V1, P73 LEGGE JD, 1992, CAMBRIDGE HIST SE AS, P1 LOVINS A, 1976, FOREIGN AFF, V55, P186 LOVINS A, 1977, SOFT ENERGY PATHS LUBCHENCO J, 1998, SCIENCE, V279, P491 MEADOWS DH, 1972, LIMITS GROWTH MEADOWS DH, 1992, LIMITS CONFRONTING G MESAROVIC M, 1974, MANKIND TURNING POIN MORITA T, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 NAKICENOVIC N, 2000, IPCC SPECIAL REPORT RASKIN P, 1996, SUSTAINABILITY TRANS RASKIN P, 1998, 8 STOCKH ENV I RASKIN P, 2002, GREAT TRANSITION PRO RAVEN PH, 2002, SCIENCE, V297, P954 RAYNER S, 1998, CHALLENGE CLIMATE CH ROBINSON JB, 1982, ENERG POLICY, V10, P337 ROBINSON JB, 1996, LIFE 2030 EXPLORING ROBINSON JB, 1998, CORNERSTONE DEV INTE ROBINSON JB, 2002, SUSTAINABLE DEV MAND ROBINSON JB, 2003, FUTURES, V35, P839 ROTMANS J, 1990, IMAGE INTEGRATED MOD ROTMANS J, 1994, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V4, P97 ROTMANS J, 1997, INTEGRATED ASSESSMEN SCHELLNHUBER J, 2002, IGBP NEWSLETTER, V49, P20 SCHWARTZ P, 1991, ART LONG VIEW PATHS SVEDIN U, 1987, SURPRISING FUTURES SWART RJ, 1998, GLOBAL CHANGE SCENAR, P193 TANSEY J, 2002, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V12, P97 VANDAALEN EC, 1999, GLOBAL CHANGE SCENAR, P267 VANNOTTEN P, 2002, INT C PROB FUT DEV O WACK P, 1985, HARVARD BUS REV, V63, P139 WACK P, 1985, HARVARD BUS REV, V63, P72 NR 49 TC 0 J9 GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANGE BP 137 EP 146 PY 2004 PD JUL VL 14 IS 2 GA 830FP UT ISI:000222107400004 ER PT J AU Pandey, N TI Gender economics of the Kyoto protocol SO CONSERVATION ECOLOGY LA English DT Editorial Material RP Pandey, N, Sarojini Naidu Govt Girls Post Grad Coll, Bhopal 462016, India. CR MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 CARLSSONKANYAMA A, 1999, SOC NATUR RESOUR, V12, P355 GATTO M, 2002, CONSERV ECOL, V6, P1 GUNDERSON LH, 1995, BARRIERS BRIDGES REN, V1, P1 HARDING S, 1998, SCIENCE, V281, P1599 LEVINE JA, 2001, SCIENCE, V294, P812 LEVINE JA, 2002, SCIENCE, V296, P1025 OCONNOR RE, 1998, RISK DECISION POLICY, V3, P145 SCHEFFER M, 2001, NATURE, V413, P591 VEDWAN N, 2001, CLIMATE RES, V19, P109 WAMUKONYA N, 2002, ENERGY ENV, V13, P115 NR 11 TC 0 J9 CONSERV ECOL BP 1 PY 2002 PD JUN VL 6 IS 1 GA 591QW UT ISI:000177892600031 ER PT J AU Rodriguez, LC Pascual, U Niemeyer, HM TI Local identification and valuation of ecosystem goods and services from Opuntia scrublands of Ayacucho, Peru SO ECOLOGICAL ECONOMICS LA English DT Article C1 Univ Cambridge, Dept Land Econ, Cambridge CB3 9EP, England. Int Livestock Res Inst, Nairobi, Kenya. Univ Chile, Fac Ciencias, Dept Ciencias Ecol, Santiago, Chile. RP Pascual, U, Univ Cambridge, Dept Land Econ, 19 Silver St, Cambridge CB3 9EP, England. AB Opuntia scrublands are important ecological-economic systems in the Andean area. They perform a major role protecting slopes against erosion, improving the soil properties and providing a variety of products employed in the human diet, and in animal feeding, as well as cochineal insects, a highly valued source of dyes. The collection of the insects has represented an important economic activity for the local communities since pre-Columbian times. Current Peruvian production represents between 85% and 90% of the global market, and is mainly based on collection of the insect in natural Opuntia scrublands located in the poorest Andean areas of Ayacucho. Although much is known about the financial benefits of cochineal for exporters and dye manufacturers, information about the value of standing Opuntia scrubs to collectors and the relative contribution of Opuntia scrubs to their household economies is scarce. Here we contribute to the estimation of the use value of Opuntia scrublands to local communities in Ayacucho by initially exploring the cultural domain of Opuntia in order to identify the ecosystem goods and services recognized by peasants, and later presenting empirical estimates of their importance to annual household income. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 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RP Gardiner, SM, Univ Washington, Dept Philosophy, 345 Savery,Box 353350, Seattle, WA 98195 USA. AB The peculiar features of the climate change problem pose substantial obstacles to our ability to make the hard choices necessary to address it. Climate change involves the convergence of a set of global, intergenerational and theoretical problems. This convergence justifies calling it a 'perfect moral storm'. One consequence of this storm is that, even if the other difficult ethical questions surrounding climate change could be answered, we might still find it difficult to act. For the storm makes us extremely vulnerable to moral corruption. CR MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 *IPCC, 2001, CLIM CHANG 2001 SYNT *NAT ASS SYNTH TEA, 2000, CLIM CHANG IMP US PO ARCHER D, 2005, J GEOPHYS RES, V110 ARCHER D, 2005, LONG WILL GLOBAL WAR BROOME J, 1992, COUNTING COST GLOBAL DIMITROV RS, 2003, INT STUD QUART, V47, P123 GARDINER SM, IN PRESS HDB INTERGE GARDINER SM, 2001, PHILOS PUBLIC AFF, V30, P387 GARDINER SM, 2003, MONIST, V86, P481 GARDINER SM, 2004, ETHICS INT AFFAIRS, V18, P23 GARDINER SM, 2004, ETHICS, V114, P555 GARDINER SM, 2006, UNPUB W3ORKSH GLOB J HANSEN J, 2004, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V101, P16109 HANSEN J, 2006, NEW SCH U FEBR 2006 HARDIN G, 1968, SCIENCE, V162, P1243 JUNGER S, 1999, PERFECT STORM TRUE S MARLAND G, 2005, GLOBAL CO2 EMISSIONS MEEHL GA, 2005, SCIENCE, V307, P1769 MENDELSOHN RO, 2001, GLOBAL WARMING AM EC NITZE WA, 1994, NEGOTIATING CLIMATE, P189 ONEILL BC, 2002, SCIENCE, V296, P1971 OSTROM E, 1990, GOVERNING COMMONS SAMUELSON RI, 2005, NEWSWEEK 0221, P41 SHEPSKI L, 2006, PAC DIV AM PHIL ASS SHUE H, 1999, INT AFF, V75, P531 SHUE H, 2005, PERSPECTIVES CLIMATE, P265 SINGER P, 2002, ONE WORLD ETHICS GLO, CH2 SPASH CL, 2002, GREENHOUSE EC VALUE TRAXLER M, 2002, SOCIAL THEORY PRACTI, V28, P101 WETHERALD RT, 2001, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V28, P1535 WIGLEY TML, 2005, SCIENCE, V307, P1766 NR 32 TC 3 J9 ENVIRON VALUE BP 397 EP 413 PY 2006 PD AUG VL 15 IS 3 GA 089VG UT ISI:000240908900013 ER PT J AU Olsen, KH TI National ownership in the implementation of global climate policy in Uganda SO CLIMATE POLICY LA English DT Article C1 Riso Natl Lab, UNEP Riso Ctr Energy Climate & Sustainable Dev, URC, DK-4000 Roskilde, Denmark. RP Olsen, KH, Riso Natl Lab, UNEP Riso Ctr Energy Climate & Sustainable Dev, URC, POB 49, DK-4000 Roskilde, Denmark. AB This article explores the history, from a developing country perspective, of how external interventions to implement global policies on the Climate Convention and the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) have been integrated into national development policy frameworks in the period 1990-2005. The main question asked is to what extent external interventions have formed part of a country-driven approach in Uganda. The conflicting national and global priorities concerning the need for adaptation to the impacts of climate change versus the need for global mitigation of greenhouse gases (GHGs) are explored first. Against this background, Uganda's policy response to climate change is reviewed. National climate policies are found not to exist, and the implementation of global policies is not integrated into national policy frameworks, partly due to conflicting national and global priorities. Given limited national awareness and the fact that climate policy is marginal compared to other national interests in Uganda, the experiences with donor support for the implementation of global climate policy nationally are analysed. This article demonstrates that neither national policies nor national management of donor support have secured a country-driven approach to external interventions in Uganda. CR *CARE UG, 2001, UG PLAN VIV SCOP REP *CLIM EN THEM GROU, 2002, CLIM EN THEM NAT ASS *DEP MET, 2004, NAPA PROJ INC REP *EARTH COUNC, 1999, PLANN SUST DEV UG ES *EP MET, 1994, SOURC SINKS GREENH G *EP MET, 1996, SOURC SINKS GREENH G *EP MET, 2001, CAP BUILD CLEAN DEV *EP MET, 2002, UG IN NAT COMM UN FR *GEF, 2003, RESP CLIM CHANG GEN *GUPTA J, 2005, AN NEG STRAT DEV COU WATSON RT, 1998, REGIONAL IMPACTS CLI, V1, P1 *MIN WAT LANDS ENV, 2003, MIN POL STAT MIN WAT *NAT STRAT STUD, 2003, CAP BUILD KYOT PRO 2 *UG MAN I, 2003, CAP DEV WORKPL CLEAN *UG WILDL AUTH, 2001, UWA FAC PROJ FOR PLA *UNDP, 1998, DEV COOP UG 1997 REP *UNDP, 2003, DEV COOP UG 2002 REP *WORLD BAK PROT CA, 2001, PROT CARB FUND UG W *WORLD BAK PROT CA, 2005, W NIL EL PROJ CDM SS *WORLD BANK, 2003, AFR ASS IN AFR REG C *WORLD BANK, 2005, POV RED STRAT IN FIN BROWN S, 2002, DEV CAPACITY TECHNIC BWANGO A, 2000, ENVIRON MONIT ASSESS, V61, P145 DAVIDSON O, 1998, AFRICAN PERSPECTIVES GWAGE P, 2004, BRIEFING DOCUMENT UN JAKOBSEN S, 1999, INT RELATIONS THEORY NAJAM A, 2003, CLIM POLICY, V3, P221 OKOTHOGENDO WHO, 1995, CLIMATE DEV CLIMATE OTITI T, 1996, OPPORTUNITY POLICY I OWEN M, 2003, CARBON TRADING PILOT SSEMWANGA C, 2004, CDM MARKETING CONCEP VANGASTEL J, 2005, AID EFFECT GIVING GO WINKLER H, 2005, CLIM POLICY, V5, P209 NR 33 TC 0 J9 CLIM POLICY BP 599 EP 612 PY 2006 VL 5 IS 6 GA 051TF UT ISI:000238183100004 ER PT J AU AFORNAS, AH TI PASTORAL AND ENVIRONMENTAL SECURITY IN EAST-AFRICA SO DISASTERS LA English DT Article RP AFORNAS, AH, SCANDINAVIAN INST AFRICAN STUDIES,POB 1703,S-75147 UPPSALA,SWEDEN. CR AFORNAS AH, 1989, ECOLOGY POLITICS ENV AFORNAS AH, 1989, ECOLOGY POLITICS ENV, P67 DAHL G, 1979, STOCKHOLM STUDIES SO NR 3 TC 1 J9 DISASTERS BP 115 EP 122 PY 1990 VL 14 IS 2 GA DN933 UT ISI:A1990DN93300002 ER PT J AU Wood, RM Drayton, M Berger, A Burgess, P Wright, T TI Catastrophe loss modelling of storm-surge flood risk in eastern England SO PHILOSOPHICAL TRANSACTIONS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY A-MATHEMATICAL PHYSICAL AND ENGINEERING SCIENCES LA English DT Article C1 Risk Management Solut, London EC3R 8HB, England. RP Wood, RM, Risk Management Solut, Peninsular House,30 Monument St, London EC3R 8HB, England. AB Probabilistic catastrophe loss modelling techniques, comprising a large stochastic set of potential storm-surge flood events, each assigned an annual rate of occurrence, have been employed for quantifying risk in the coastal flood plain of eastern England. Based on the tracks of the causative extratropical cyclones, historical storm-surge events are categorized into three classes, with distinct windfields and surge geographies. Extreme combinations of 'tide with surge' are then generated for an extreme value distribution developed for each class. Fragility curves are used to determine the probability and magnitude of breaching relative to water levels and wave action for each section of sea defence. Based on the time-history of water levels in the surge, and the simulated configuration of breaching, flow is time-stepped through the defences and propagated into the flood plain using a 50 m horizontal-resolution digital elevation model. Based on the values and locations of the building stock in the flood plain, losses are calculated using vulnerability functions linking flood depth and flood velocity to measures of property loss. The outputs from this model for a UK insurance industry portfolio include 'loss exceedence probabilities' as well as 'average annualized losses', which can be employed for calculating coastal flood risk premiums in each postcode. CR DEHAAN L, 1998, EXTREMES, V1, P7 DIXON MJ, 1994, 72 PROUDM OC LAB DONG W, 2001, BUILDING MORE PROFIT DOUGLAS CKM, 1953, METEOROL MAG, P1 DRAYTON MJ, 1998, P 4 UK C WIND ENG BR FLATHER R, 1998, GLOBAL ATMOS OCEAN S, V6, P165 KING EGE, 1979, METEOROL MAG, V108, P135 NJAI A, 1990, FLAIR FLOOD LOSS ASS PRANDLE D, 1978, GEOPHYS J ROY ASTRON, V55, P203 RODEWALD M, 1976, SEEWART, P102 RODEWALD M, 1977, SEEWART, P102 STEERS JA, 1979, GEOG J, V145, P192 WOO G, 1999, MATH NATURAL CATASTR WOO G, 1999, PHIL T R SOC A WOOD RM, 2005, PHIL T R SOC A, V363 NR 15 TC 0 J9 PHIL TRANS ROY SOC A-MATH PHY BP 1407 EP 1422 PY 2005 PD JUN 15 VL 363 IS 1831 GA 959RV UT ISI:000231536900009 ER PT J AU Brenkert, AL Malone, EL TI Modeling vulnerability and resilience to climate change: A case study of India and Indian states SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 Joint Global Change Res Inst, College Pk, MD 20740 USA. RP Brenkert, AL, Joint Global Change Res Inst, 8400 Baltimore Ave,Suite 201, College Pk, MD 20740 USA. AB The vulnerability of India and Indian states to climate change was assessed using the Vulnerability-Resilience Indicator Prototype (VRIP). The model was adapted from the global/country version to account for Indian dietary practices and data availability with regard to freshwater resources. Results (scaled to world values) show nine Indian states to be moderately resilient to climate change, principally because of low sulfur emissions and a relatively large percentage of unmanaged land. Six states are more vulnerable than India as a whole, attributable largely to sensitivity to sea storm surges. Analyses of results at the state level (Orissa, and comparisons between Maharashtra and Kerala, and Andhra Pradesh and Himachal Pradesh) demonstrate the value of VRIP analyses used in conjunction with other socio-economic information to address initial questions about the sources of vulnerability in particular places. The modeling framework allows analysts and stakeholders to systematically evaluate individual and sets of indicators and to indicate where the likely vulnerabilities are in the area being assessed. 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Univ Colorado, Inst Coll Beijing, Beijing 100083, Peoples R China. RP Xu, FL, Peking Univ, Coll Environm Sci, MOE, Lab Earth Surface Proc, Beijing 100871, Peoples R China. AB In conjunction with ecological performance, a definition to sustainable economic development was proposed, and a novel triangle method was designed to evaluate economic development sustainability, based on the interrelationships among economic development, resource-energy consumption, and environment pollution. As a case study, the triangle method was applied to assess the sustainability status and long-term trends of China's economic development. The results show that economic development in 2000 represents a relatively weak state of sustainability; and that most of the 31 political regions in Mainland China reflect sustainability positions ranging from weakly unsustainable to weakly sustainable. The China's economic development between 1980 and 1991 reveals a rather weak sustainability trend, while that from 1991 to 2000 demonstrates a relatively strong sustainable trend. China's unremitting efforts in environmental protection over the last two decades would be responsible for these status and trends. The triangle method, as an intuitive platform for illustrating sustainability status and trends in economic development, seems to hold promise as an analytical management tool given its simplicity, ease of use, and flexibility. 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AB Although the way in which local communities in The Gambia identify drought has remained predominantly traditional, their response to the hazard has undergone significant change over the past three decades. Some of the changes, even if short-lived, have been beneficial, and have reduced the severity and duration of the hardships and penury which can accompany droughts in this part of the world. Nevertheless, other changes in the local response system, coupled with wider social, economic and political developments over the decades, are threatening to weaken the tolerance of local communities to hazards and increase their exposure to droughts. This article examines some of the strategies which local communities employ to identify and respond to drought, the extent to which responses have changed over the past decades, and the implications of some of these changes for the vulnerability of local communities in The Gambia. 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US EPA, NERL, Ecosyst Res Div, Athens, GA 30605 USA. RP Wainger, LA, Univ Maryland, Ctr Environm Sci, POB 38, Solomons, MD 20688 USA. AB We develop indicators showing the relative environmental burdens that human activities place on locales for a given level of economic benefits. The main purpose is to develop tools that allow us to examine the potential vulnerabilities within economies to changes in resource conditions. The indicators of pollution emission or resource consumption per job can be used to identify potential challenges to resource and industry managers and to compare areas in terms of their ability to adapt to change. For example, if a large number of area jobs are dependent on abundant water, this indicates a vulnerability to a reduction in water availability for industrial use. We develop a case study for 23 counties and 1 city in Maryland to examine the usefulness and limitations of the indicators. Our case study demonstrates that the indicators provide an informative view into patterns of local economic activity and use of an area's environmental goods and services. In contrast to patterns for total environmental burdens (e.g., total SO2 emissions) that are typically reported, the rates of environmental burden per job are not simply correlated with high or low economic output. Thus, the indicators represent distinct patterns of environmental burdens per job that reflect reliance on environmental services. The indicators have some limitations when used at this fine scale because they can misrepresent conditions in counties in which economic sectors are dominated by one or a few businesses. For this reason, the indicators are best used as a regional screening tool. CR *CMU, 2000, EIOLCA *MIG, 1999, IMPLAN PROF VERS 2 0 *US EPA, 2000, 454R00002 EPA *US EPA, 2001, 260F01001 EPA *US EPA, 2003, GREEN BOOK OFF AIR R *US EPA, 2003, IND WAT IND ARNOLD FD, 1987, OOMA NAT OC SERV AUSTIN DH, 1998, BENEFITS MARYLAND EX BERGMAN EM, 1999, WEB BOOK REGIONAL SC BOCKSTAEL NE, 2000, ENVIRON SCI TECHNOL, V34, P1384 BURKSCOPES KA, 2002, ECOSYSTEM RESTORATIO DALE VH, 2001, ECOLOGICAL INDICATOR, V1, P3 DIAMOND PA, 1994, J ECON PERSPECT, V8, P45 DOCKERY DW, 1993, NEW ENGL J MED, V329, P1753 HORVATH A, 1995, ENVIRON SCI TECHNOL, V29, P86 KING DM, 2001, ECOSYSTEM VALUATION LEONTIEF WW, 1986, INPUT OUTPUT EC MATTHEWS HS, 2000, ENVIRON SCI TECHNOL, V34, P1390 MAXWELL BA, 2002, REGIONAL ENV CHANGE, V3, P77 NOSS RF, 1990, CONSERV BIOL, V4, P355 PACHECO PA, 1993, POINT SOURCE METHODS RIBAUDO MO, 2001, ECOLOGICAL INDICATOR, V1, P11 SHABMAN L, 2000, J WATER RES PL-ASCE, V126, P382 SMITH VK, 1996, ESTIMATING EC VALUES WOODLEY S, 1999, 3 USDA NR 25 TC 0 J9 ENVIRON MANAGE BP 730 EP 747 PY 2004 PD NOV VL 34 IS 5 GA 891LO UT ISI:000226582800012 ER PT J AU Ng, WS Mendelsohn, R TI The economic impact of sea-level rise on nonmarket lands in Singapore SO AMBIO LA English DT Article C1 Yale Univ, Sch Forestry & Environm Studies, New Haven, CT 06520 USA. World Resources Inst, Washington, DC 20008 USA. RP Ng, WS, World Resources Inst, 10 G St NE Suite 8000, Washington, DC 20008 USA. AB Sea-level rise, as a result of climate change, will likely inflict considerable economic consequences on coastal regions, particularly low-lying island states like Singapore. Although the literature has addressed the vulnerability of developed coastal lands, this is the first economic study to address nonmarket lands, such as beaches, marshes and mangrove estuaries. This travel cost and contingent valuation study reveals that consumers in Singapore attach considerable value to beaches. The contingent valuation study also attached high values to marshes and mangroves but this result was not supported by the travel cost study. Although protecting nonmarket land uses from sea-level rise is expensive, the study shows that at least highly valued resources, such as Singapore's popular beaches, should be protected. CR *MIN ENV, 2000, SING IN NAT COMM UN, P34 AHMAD QK, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, P1 AJZAN I, 1993, J APPL SOC PSYCHOL, V30, P2439 AMADORE LA, 1996, WATER AIR SOIL POLL, V92, P1 ARMENTANO TV, 1988, GREENHOUSE EFFECT SE, P87 CARTER TR, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, P145 CHURCH JA, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, P639 DILLMAN D, 1999, MAIL INTERNET SURVEY, P79 DOUGLAS BC, 2001, SEA LEVEL RISE, P1 DZIEGIELEWSKA DA, 2003, ESSAYS CONTINGENT VA, P83 ELLISON JC, 2000, CLIMATE CHANGE S PAC, P289 FREEMAN AM, 1993, MEASUREMENT ENV RESO, P516 JONES RN, 2000, CLIMATE CHANGE S PAC, P385 KALUWIN C, 2001, SEA LEVEL CHANGES TH, P273 KING SE, 1995, MAR POLLUT BULL, V30, P180 MCLEAN RF, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, P343 NEUMANN JE, 2001, GLOBAL WARMING AM EC, P132 NG WS, 2005, ENVIRON DEV ECON 2, V10, P201 NURSE LA, 2001, 3 INT PAN CLIM CHANG, P843 PARK RA, 1986, EFFECTS CHANGES STRA, P129 QUAH TS, 1999, EXPERT SYST APPL, V17, P295 REED DJ, 1995, EARTH SURF PROCESSES, V20, P39 RIJSBERMAN F, 1991, RESPONDING CLIMATE C SMITH JB, 1988, POTENTIAL EFFECTS GL, P1 SOLOMON SM, 1999, OCEAN COAST MANAGE, V42, P523 SORENSEN RM, 1984, GREENHOUSE EFFECT SE, P179 SPASH CL, 2000, ENVIRON SCI TECHNOL, V34, P1433 SWALLOW SK, 2001, J ENVIRON ECON MANAG, V41, P70 TIETENBERG T, 2000, ENV NATURAL RESOURCE, P646 TITUS JG, 1986, COAST ZONE MANAGE J, V14, P147 WARRICK RA, 1992, CONFRONTING CLIMATE, P97 WATSON RT, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, V1, P1 WHITE KS, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, P19 WONG PP, 1985, Z GEOMORPHOL, V57, P175 WONG PP, 1992, J SE ASIAN EARTH SCI, V7, P65 YOHE GW, 1999, IMPACT CLIMATE CHANG, P178 NR 36 TC 0 J9 AMBIO BP 289 EP 296 PY 2006 PD SEP VL 35 IS 6 GA 105NZ UT ISI:000242038700004 ER PT J AU HUGHES, P BRUNDRIT, GB TI SEA-LEVEL RISE AND COASTAL PLANNING - A CALL FOR STRICTER CONTROL IN RIVER MOUTHS SO JOURNAL OF COASTAL RESEARCH LA English DT Article RP HUGHES, P, UNIV CAPE TOWN,DEPT OCEANOG,RONDEBOSCH 7700,SOUTH AFRICA. AB Drift-aligned type deltas are common to the South African coastline across the whole range of river sizes. They are dynamic environments and by virtue of their potential for rapid morphological change, they are inherently unsuitable for development. South Africa has a relatively short history of intense coastal development. As a result, these estuaries appear to have some margin of stability and are rapidly becoming developed. Sea level rise will increase the occurrence of extreme flood and erosional events in these estuaries and poorly planned development contained within them will come under exaggerated risk. Two ease studies of potential impacts of sea level rise are considered: the Diep river near Cape Town and the Umgeni river at Durban. Increased coastal erosion resulting from a small rise in sea level is shown to shorten the channel of the Diep, seriously affecting housing on the spit barrier and exposing previously sheltered development to direct wave attack. The combination of sea level rise with river hoods and/or sea storms is shown to induce a switch in the Umgeni from a modern short channel, to a longer, abandoned channel. Durban city centre is located in the middle of this palaeochannel. The potential for hood damage is extreme. Increased coastal erosion will also significantly reduce the available tourist beaches. Drift-aligned deltas occur in many locations worldwide and any development contained within them is highly vulnerable to changes in mean sea level. The increased vulnerability of these environments is therefore of international significance. Their development needs to be strictly controlled with new town planning ordinances, capable of addressing the sea level rise issue. CR 1972, EFFECTS PROPOSED HAR, V1 1972, EFFECTS PROPOSED HAR, V2 1983, CSIR CSEA8373 COUNC 1989, CSIR EMAC8915 COUNC BARNES P, 1984, NATALIA, V14, P33 BEGG GW, 1984, ESTUARIES NATAL 2, V55 BIRD ECF, 1985, WORLDS COASTLINES BRUUN P, 1962, J WATERWAYS HARBORS, V88, P117 CARTER RWG, 1988, COASTAL ENV INTRO PH DAY JH, 1981, ESTUARINE ECOLOGY PA DUVENAGE IR, 1984, CSIR430 COUNC SCI IN HOLLIGAN P, 1991, IGBP GLOBAL CHANGE N, V8, P5 HUGHES P, 1990, SLRG90041 U CAP TOWN HUGHES P, 1993, S AFR J SCI, V89, P488 JURY MR, 1986, S AFR J SCI, V82, P315 KOOP K, 1982, CSIR417 COUNC SCI IN PERRY JE, 1989, CSIR640 COUNC SCI IN ROSSOUW J, 1989, THESIS U STELLENBOSC RUSSELL G, 1899, HIST OLD DURBAN REMI SEARSON S, 1993, THESIS U CAPE TOWN SWART DH, 1974, DELFT PUBLICATION, V131 SWART DH, 1990, T ROY SOC S AFR, V47, P217 TRIEGAARDT DO, 1988, 19 DEP ENV AFF WEATH WRIGHT LD, 1973, AAPG BULL, V57, P370 NR 24 TC 2 J9 J COASTAL RES BP 887 EP 898 PY 1995 PD SUM VL 11 IS 3 GA RN670 UT ISI:A1995RN67000028 ER PT J AU Danis, PA von Grafenstein, U Masson-Delmotte, V Planton, S Gerdeaux, D Moisselin, JM TI Vulnerability of two European lakes in response to future climatic changes SO GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS LA English DT Article C1 IPSL, Lab Sci Climat & Environm, F-91191 Gif Sur Yvette, France. Agence Natl Gest Dechets Radioact, Chatenay Malabry, France. Lab Geodynam Chaines Alpines, Le Bourget Du Lac, France. Meteo France, CNRM, Toulouse, France. INRA, Stn Hydrobiol Lacustre, F-74203 Thonon Les Bains, France. RP Danis, PA, IPSL, Lab Sci Climat & Environm, F-91191 Gif Sur Yvette, France. AB Temperate deep freshwater lakes are important resources of drinking water and fishing, and regional key recreation areas. Their deep water often hosts highly specialised fauna surviving since glacial times. Theoretical and observational studies suggest a vulnerability of these hydro-ecosystems to reduced mixing and ventilation within the ongoing climatic change. Here we use a numerical thermal lake model, verified over the 20th century, to quantify the transient thermal behaviour of two European lakes in response to the observed 20th-century and predicted 21th-century climate changes. In contrast to Lac d'Annecy ( France) which, after adaptation, maintains its modern mixing behaviour, Ammersee ( Germany) is expected to undergo a dramatic and persistent lack of mixing starting from similar to 2020, when European air temperatures should be similar to 1degreesC warmer. The resulting lack of oxygenation will irreversibly destroy the deepwater fauna prevailing since 15 kyrs. CR *INT PAN CLIM CHAN, 2001, CLIM CHANG 2001 IMP ALEFS J, 1999, J PALEOLIMNOL, V21, P395 BLENCKNER T, 2002, AQUAT SCI, V64, P171 CARVALHO L, 2003, HYDROBIOLOGIA, V506, P789 DABROWSKI M, 2004, HYDROL EARTH SYST SC, V8, P79 DANIS PA, 2003, J GEOPHYS RES-ATMOS, V108 DOUVILLE H, 2002, CLIM DYNAM, V20, P45 FAMER DM, 1982, J PHYS OCEANOGR, V11, P1516 GARIBALDI L, 1999, J LIMNOL, V58, P10 GEORGE DG, 1998, MANAGEMENT LAKES RES, P301 GERDEAUX D, 1998, MANAGEMENT LAKES RES, P263 GIBELIN AL, 2003, CLIM DYNAM, V20, P327 GILLET C, 1991, AQUAT LIVING RESOUR, V4, P109 HENDERSONSELLER.B, 1986, REV GEOPHYS, V24, P625 HOUGHTON JT, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 KING JR, 1999, CAN J FISH AQUAT SCI, V56, P847 LIVINGSTONE DM, 2003, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V57, P205 MAGNUSON JJ, 1997, HYDROL PROCESS, V11, P825 MAGNUSON JJ, 2000, SCIENCE, V289, P1743 MOISSELIN JM, 2002, METEOROLOGIE, V38, P45 MOORE MV, 1997, HYDROL PROCESS, V11, P925 PATTERSON JC, 1988, LIMNOL OCEANOGR, V33, P232 PEETERS F, 2002, LIMNOL OCEANOGR, V47, P186 QUAYLE WC, 2002, SCIENCE, V25, P645 STENSETH NC, 2002, SCIENCE, V297, P1292 VERBURG P, 2003, SCIENCE, V301, P505 VONGRAFENSTEIN U, 1999, SCIENCE, V284, P1654 NR 27 TC 0 J9 GEOPHYS RES LETT PY 2004 PD NOV 13 VL 31 IS 21 GA 872EJ UT ISI:000225190200003 ER PT J AU WILBANKS, TJ TI SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT IN GEOGRAPHIC PERSPECTIVE SO ANNALS OF THE ASSOCIATION OF AMERICAN GEOGRAPHERS LA English DT Editorial Material RP WILBANKS, TJ, OAK RIDGE NATL LAB,OAK RIDGE,TN 37831. AB For geographers, both the seriousness of the sustainable development issue and the power of the term are challenges that are very welcome. The intellectual value and practical utility of such distinctive concepts as diversity, flow (nature-society, spatial, and temporal), scale, and visualization represent opportunities to contribute profoundly to questions of significance to both general learning and social decisionmaking. Moreover, geography's perspective can help to address the pressing need for a stronger theoretical basis for understanding sustainable development. In the end, however, our contributions will depend on a demonstration in our roles as teachers and citizens, as well as scholars, that we recognize the importance of an ethical revolution as well as increased scientific understanding. CR *FED PEOPL REP YUG, 1980, STAT YB *OAK RIDG NAT LAB, 1985, EN DEV *UN, 1990, 2ND REP M PART MONTR *UN, 1993, AG 21 PROGR ACT SUST *WORLD BANK, 1991, WORLD DEV REP *WORLD COMM ENV DE, 1987, OUR COMM FUT *WORLD EN COUNC, 1993, EN TOM WORLD ADAMS RM, 1993, COMMUNICATION ADAMS WM, 1990, GREEN DEV BELL D, 1989, PUBLIC INTEREST, V95, P35 BERRY BJL, 1991, LONG WAVE RHYTHMS EC BERRY BJL, 1993, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V13, P389 BLAIKIE PM, 1985, POLITICAL EC SOIL ER BLAIKIE PM, 1987, LAND DEGRADATION SOC BROOKFIELD H, 1975, INTERDEPENDENT DEV BROWN BJ, 1987, ENVIRON MANAGE, V11, P713 BRUNN S, 1991, COLLAPSING SPACE TIM BURTON I, 1978, ENV HAZARD, V1, P1 BUTZER KW, 1984, HUNTERS FARMERS, P102 BUTZER KW, 1990, EARTH TRANSFORMED HU, P685 CARLEY M, 1993, MANAGING SUSTAINABLE CLARK WC, 1985, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V7, P5 CORBRIDGE S, 1993, DEBT DEV CORBRIDGE S, 1994, MONEY POWER SPACE COUCLELIS H, 1988, ENVIRON PLANN A, V20, P99 COUCLELIS H, 1992, GEOGRAPHYS INNER WOR, P215 DALE VH, 1994, CONSERV BIOL, V8, P196 DALY H, 1990, DEVELOPMENT, V3, P45 DOWLATABADI H, 1993, SCIENCE, V259, P1813 DRUCKER PF, 1988, HARVARD BUS REV, V66, P45 ECKHOLM EP, 1982, EARTH ENV HUMAN NEED EHRLICH PR, 1968, POPULATION BOMB FORESTA RA, 1991, AM CONSERVATION AGE FRIEDMANN J, 1979, TERRITORY FUNCTION E GEORGESCURODAN N, 1983, MATERIALS SOC, V7, P425 GOULD P, 1991, COLLAPSING SPACE TIM, P3 GREGORY D, 1994, GEOGRAPHICAL IMAGINA HAGERSTRAND T, 1979, DYNAMIC ALLOCATION U, P3 HANDLER P, 1979, EPRI J, V4, P14 HARVEY D, 1989, GROWTH POSTMODERNITY HECHT SB, 1985, WORLD DEV, V13, P663 HILBORN RC, 1994, CHAOS NONLINEAR DYNA KAPLAN RD, 1994, ATLANTIC MONTHLY, V373, P44 KASH DE, 1989, PERPETUAL INNOVATION LEWIN R, 1992, COMPLEXITY LIFE EDGE LOVEJOY TE, 1990, 4 NEOTROPICAL RAINFO, P60 MACEACHREN AM, 1992, GEOGRAPHYS INNER WOR, P99 MACNEILL J, 1989, SCI AM, V261, P154 MALINGREAU JP, 1988, AMBIO, V17, P49 MANNION AM, 1991, GLOBAL ENV CHANGE NA MARSH GP, 1965, MAN NATURE PHYSICAL MEADOWS DH, 1972, LIMITS GROWTH MEYER WB, 1992, GEOGRAPHYS INNER WOR, P255 MILLER AI, 1981, SCI THINKING, P383 MUMFORD L, 1934, TECHNICS CIVILIZATIO NELSON G, 1992, 1992 INT GEOGR C WAS NICOLAS G, 1989, EXPLORING COMPLEXITY OBRIEN R, 1992, GLOBAL FINANCIAL INT PARKES D, 1980, TIMES SPACES PLACES PRIGOGINE I, 1984, ORDER OUT OF CHAOS SCHMIDHEINY S, 1992, CHANGING COURSE GLOB SCHUMACHER EF, 1973, SMALL IS BEAUTIFUL SHEPPARD A, 1994, COMMUNICATION SMITH N, 1991, UNEVEN DEV SOJA EW, 1989, POSTMODERN GEOGRAPHI SOUTHWORTH F, UNPUB STODDART DR, 1986, GEOGRAPHY ITS HIST STONE RD, 1992, NATURE DEV THOMAS WL, 1956, MANS ROLE CHANGING F THOMPSON DW, 1942, GROWTH FORM TURNER BL, 1990, EARTH TRANSFORMED HU TURNER BL, 1994, AMBIO, V23, P91 TURNER RK, 1988, SUSTAINABLE ENV MANA WALDROP MM, 1992, COMPLEXITY EMERGING WATTS MJ, 1983, INTERPRETATIONS CALA, P231 WEART S, 1982, WORKING PAPERS SCI T, V1, P61 WILBANKS TJ, 1980, LOCATION WELL BEING WILBANKS TJ, 1984, NUCLEAR POWER ASSESS, P9 WILBANKS TJ, 1988, EARTH 88 CHANGING GE, P96 WILBANKS TJ, 1991, ENERGY SYSTEMS ENV D, P13 WILBANKS TJ, 1992, TECHNOLOGIES GREENHO, P587 NR 81 TC 33 J9 ANN ASSN AMER GEOGR BP 541 EP 556 PY 1994 PD DEC VL 84 IS 4 GA QA066 UT ISI:A1994QA06600001 ER PT J AU Dube, OP Pickup, G TI Effects of rainfall variability and communal and semi-commercial grazing on land cover in southern African rangelands SO CLIMATE RESEARCH LA English DT Article C1 Univ Botswana & Swaziland, Dept Environm Sci, Gaborone, Botswana. CSIRO, Land & Water, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia. RP Dube, OP, Univ Botswana & Swaziland, Dept Environm Sci, Private Bag UB 00704, Gaborone, Botswana. AB Semi-arid ecosystems in southern Africa are experiencing change due to natural variability in rainfall and to changes in the type and intensity of land use. This paper applies grazing gradient techniques to vegetation cover dynamics in areas of communal and semi-commercial grazing in the Kalahari rangelands of Botswana to see whether human impact can be separated from that of climate variability. Landsat Thematic Mapper and Multispectral Scanner data were acquired for the Gumare and Hainaveld areas for a number of wet and dry seasons. Vegetation cover was mapped using the PD54 vegetation index. Gradients in both vegetation cover and vegetation response to rainfall were identified under communal use, suggesting both human impact and human-induced degradation. However, patterns were complex because of multiple focal points in the hinterland of larger settlements. Gradients in vegetation response were more effective than gradients in cover as identifiers of human impact in semi-commercial grazing areas. These gradients intensify in dry periods but vegetation partially recovers after good rains. Over time, however, the gradients are intensifying, suggesting that long-term grazing impact is occurring. As gradients intensify and degradation increases, vulnerability of grazing systems to rainfall variability and to drought is likely to intensify. 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The concept of social capital in geographical vulnerability SO GEOGRAPHISCHE ZEITSCHRIFT LA German DT Article C1 Univ Bonn, Inst Geog, D-53115 Bonn, Germany. RP Bohle, HG, Univ Bonn, Inst Geog, Meckenheimer Allee 166, D-53115 Bonn, Germany. AB The paper analyses the concept of social capital in terms of its relevance for development geography in general, and geographical vulnerability research in particular. Social capital is conceptualised in ways that are highly heterogeneous, contradictory and controversial. This paper aims to disentangle the various strands of the debate while paying particular attention to their underlying assumptions and specific objectives. A distinction is made between individualist and collective approaches, action-oriented and structuralist perspectives, and development-centred and poverty-driven applications. Three approaches are highlighted as being of particular interest to geographical vulnerability research and are illustrated by empirical case studies in South Asia: those that seek to promote opportunities, those that facilitate empowerment, and those that enhance security. We conclude that the concept of social capital seems to be evolving as a promising new field in development geography, making a theoretical contribution to development theory, structuration theory and conflict research. CR *DFID, 1999, SUST LIV GUID SHEET *UNDP, 1997, BER MENSCHL ENTW *WORLD BANK, 1997, 19971998 WORLD BANK *WORLD BANK, 1997, SOC CAP MISS LINK MO, CH6 *WORLD BANK, 2000, 20002001 WORLD BANK ALWANG J, 2001, VULNERABILITY VIEW D BAKER W, 2001, FUTURE AVENTIS MAGAZ, V2, P52 BATHELT H, 2002, WIRTSCHAFTSGEOGRAPHI BOHLE HG, 1992, GEOGRAPHISCHE RUNDSC, V44, P78 BOHLE HG, 1997, GEOGRAPHISCHE RUNDSC, V49, P735 BOHLE HG, 1998, MT RES DEV, V18, P321 BOHLE HG, 2001, ERDE, V132, P119 BOHLE HG, 2001, INT HUMAN DIMENSIONS, V2, P1 BOHLE HG, 2002, GEOGR HELV, V57, P2 BOHLE HG, 2004, PETERMANNS GEOGRAPHI, V148, P22 BOHLE HG, 2006, IN PRESS LEHRBUCH GE BOHLE HG, 2006, UNPUB GEOGRAPHIES VI BOURDIEU P, 1983, SOZ WELT, V2, P183 BURT RS, 1992, STRUCTURAL HOLES SOC BURT RS, 2001, SOCIAL CAPITAL THEOR, S31 BUTTNER H, 2001, STUDIEN GEOGRAPHISCH CHAMBERS R, 1989, IDS B, V20, P1 COLEMAN J, 1990, FDN SOCIAL THEORY DORFLER T, 2003, GEOGR HELV, V58, P11 GEBHARDT H, 2003, KULTURGEOGRAPHIE AKT GIDDENS A, 1988, KONSTITUTION GESELLS GOODHAND J, 2000, DISASTERS, V24, P390 HARRISS J, 1997, J INT DEV, V9, P919 HARRISS J, 2002, DEPOLITICIZING DEV W HAUG S, 1997, 15 MZES U MANNH KOBERLEIN M, 2003, STUDIEN GEOGRAPHISCH, V24 KORF B, 2004, DEV CHANGE, V35, S277 KREUTZMANN H, 2003, GEOGR HELV, V58, P2 KRUGER F, 2003, PETERMANNS GEOGRAPHI, V147, P6 LEVI M, 1996, POLIT SOC, V24, P45 LIN N, 2001, SOCIAL CAPITAL THEOR, S3 LOHNERT B, 1995, FREIBURGER STUDIEN G, V8 MOHAN G, 2002, PROG HUM GEOG, V26, P191 MOSER CON, 1998, WORLD DEV, V26, P1 MULLERBOKER U, 2001, GEOGR HELV, V56, P2 NARAYAN D, 1999, 2167 WORLD BANK NARAYAN D, 2000, VOICES POOR CAN ANYO PUTNAM R, 1993, MAKING DEMOCRACY WOR PUTNAM RD, 1995, PS-POLITICAL SCI POL, V28, P664 PUTZEL J, 1997, J INT DEV, V9, P939 RADCLIFFE SA, 2004, PROG HUM GEOG, V28, P517 REUBER P, 2000, GEOGR Z, V88, P36 RUBIO M, 1997, J ECON ISSUES, V31, P805 SCHAMP EW, 2000, STANDORTBEDINGUNGEN, P61 SCHOLZ F, 2004, GEOGRAPHISCHE ENTWIC SCHUTTE S, 2003, STUDIEN GEOGRAPHISCH, V23 SERAGELDIN I, 1996, ENV SUSTAINABLE STUD, V5 STADLER R, 2004, SUDDEUTSCHE Z M 0907, P5 TROGER S, 2002, GEOGR HELV, V57, P34 TROGER S, 2004, STUDIEN GEOGRAPHISCH, V27 TURNER BL, 2001, VULNERABILITY RESILI VANDILLEN S, 2004, STUDIEN GEOGRAPHISCH, V29 WATTS MJ, 1993, PROG HUM GEOG, V17, P43 WERLEN B, 1997, GESELLSCHAFT HANDLUN WOOLCOCK M, 2000, WORLD BANK RES OBSER, V15, S225 WOOLCOCK M, 2002, ADB REV, V34, S26 NR 61 TC 0 J9 GEOGR Z BP 65 EP 81 PY 2005 VL 93 IS 2 GA 066GN UT ISI:000239217800001 ER PT J AU Pielke, RA TI Reframing the US hurricane problem SO SOCIETY & NATURAL RESOURCES LA English DT Article RP Pielke, RA, NATL CTR ATMOSPHER RES,ENVIRONM & SOCIETAL IMPACTS GRP,POB 3000,BOULDER,CO 80307. AB In all, 1995 was the most active Atlantic hurricane season in 62 years. Six hurricanes came near or crossed the U.S. coastline, briefly focusing public attention on the impacts of hurricanes. Attention to the policy implications of hurricane impacts in the form of systematic policy analyses is sorely needed. The active season of 1995 followed several decades of depressed hurricane frequencies. The long period of relatively few storms has led to increased complacency about hurricane impacts. As recent experiences with Hurricanes Andrew (1992) and Hugo (1989) have shown, any rise in hurricane frequencies likely will impact a relatively unprepared, complacent public. This article focuses on the framing of policy;problems, critiques the conventional framing of the U.S. hurricane problem, and suggests an alternative framing. A better understanding of the U.S. hurricane problem can aid public and private policymakers who face difficult decisions with limited resources. It is hoped that this article will stimulate constructive debate about how we frame the problem of hurricanes and that this debate will prove useful in defining problems associated with extreme events in other contexts in and beyond the United States. 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RP Bernknopf, RL, US Geol Survey, Western Geog Sci Ctr, Menlo Pk, CA 94025 USA. AB In the past efforts to prevent catastrophic losses from natural hazards have largely been undertaken by individual property owners based on site-specific evaluations of risks to particular buildings. Public efforts to assess community vulnerability and encourage mitigation have focused on either aggregating site-specific estimates or adopting standards based upon broad assumptions about regional risks. This paper develops an alternative, intermediate-scale approach to regional risk assessment and the evaluation of community mitigation policies. Properties are grouped into types with similar land uses and levels of hazard, and hypothetical community mitigation strategies for protecting these. properties are modeled like investment portfolios. The portfolios consist of investments in mitigation against the risk to a community posed by a specific natural hazard and are defined by a community's mitigation budget and the proportion of the budget invested in locations, of each type. The usefulness of this approach is demonstrated through an integrated assessment of earthquake-induced lateral-spread ground failure risk in the Watsonville, California area. Data from the magnitude 6.9 Loma Prieta earthquake of 1989 are used to model lateral-spread ground failure susceptibility. Earth science and economic data are combined and analyzed in a Geographic Information System (GIS). The portfolio model is then used to evaluate the benefits of mitigating the risk in different locations. Two mitigation policies one that prioritizes mitigation by land use type and the other by hazard zone, are. compared with a status quo policy of doing no further mitigation beyond that which already exists. The portfolio representing the hazard zone role yields a higher expected return than the land use portfolio does; however. the hazard zone portfolio experiences a higher standard deviation. Therefore, neither portfolio is clearly preferred. The two mitigation policies both reduce expected losses and increase overall expected community wealth compared to the status quo policy. CR *CDMG, 1997, CDMG SPEC PUBL, V117 *CDMG, 1997, STAT CAL SEISM HAZ Z *HAZUS99, 1999, EARTHQ LOSS EST METH *US GAO, 1999, GAOTRCED99106 US SEN *WORK GROUP CAL EA, 1988, 88398 US GEOL SURV *WORK GROUP CAL EA, 1990, 1053 US GEOL SURV BARBASH JE, 1996, PESTICIDES GROUND WA BERNKNOPF RL, 1988, B ASS ENG GEOLOGISTS, V25, P39 BERNKNOPF RL, 1988, ENVIRON PLANN A, V20, P621 BORCHERDT RD, 1995, P 5 INT C SEISM ZON, V3, P1933 CORWIN DL, 1999, ASSESSMENT NONPOINT GREEN WH, 1990, ECONOMETRIC ANAL JIBSONRW, 1998, 89113 US GEOL SURV KAYEN RE, 1997, ASCE J GEOTECHNICAL, V123, P1164 MCKENNA CJ, 1986, EC UNCERTAINTY PIKE RJ, 1994, 94662 USGS SELBY MJ, 1993, HILLSLOPE MAT PROCES SHARPE WF, 1970, PORTFOLIO THEORY CAP TINSLEY JC, 1998, 1551B P US GEOL SURV, B287 VISCUSI WK, 1992, FATAL TRADEOFFS PUBL NR 20 TC 0 J9 INT GEOL REV BP 424 EP 440 PY 2001 PD MAY VL 43 IS 5 GA 482RM UT ISI:000171589100007 ER PT J AU CARY, J TI THE NATURE OF SYMBOLIC BELIEFS AND ENVIRONMENTAL BEHAVIOR IN A RURAL SETTING SO ENVIRONMENT AND BEHAVIOR LA English DT Article RP CARY, J, UNIV MELBOURNE,SCH AGR & FORESTRY,PARKVILLE,VIC 3052,AUSTRALIA. AB The correspondence between positively held beliefs about the environment and consistent environmental behavior is often tenuous. Many environmental beliefs have the characteristics of symbolic beliefs. Symbolic beliefs, reflecting what the belief objects represent for individual identity and values, provide social identification or self-expressive value functions for individuals. Symbolic beliefs are more abstract than instrumental beliefs and are less rooted in reality. In a research study of beliefs about environmental behavior related to rural land management, symbolic beliefs and instrumental beliefs were identified. Symbolic environmental beliefs were reflected in property holders claiming environmental benefits for behaviors primarily determined by more tangible, instrumental purposes. Decreasing proximity to the location of an environmental problem increased the instability of perceptions of the problem. It is likely that the more remote the belief object, the more symbolic the belief. CR *AUSTR COMM, 1992, AUSTR ENV ISS FACTS *AUSTR DEP CONS FO, 1988, DRAFT SAL CONTR STRA ABELSON RP, 1986, J THEOR SOC BEHAV, V16, P223 ABELSON RP, 1990, ATTITUDE STRUCTURE F AJZEN I, 1980, UNDERSTANDING ATTITU BARR NF, 1984, FARMERS PERCEPTIONS BARR NF, 1992, GREENING BROWN LAND BELL PA, 1990, ENV PSYCHOL BEM DJ, 1967, PSYCHOL REV, V74, P183 BEM DJ, 1970, BELIEFS ATTITUDES HU BURTON I, 1978, ENV HAZARD, V1, P1 CARY JW, 1991, 9TH INT C PERS CONST CARY JW, 1992, 7TH P INT SOIL CONS, V2, P377 CARY JW, 1992, AGR ENV SOC CONT ISS COOK TD, 1979, QUASIEXPERIMENTATION CSIKSZENTMIHALYI M, 1981, MEASUREMENT ERRORS S EISENHOWER D, 1991, MEASUREMENT ERRORS S FISHBEIN M, 1975, BELIEF ATTITUDE INTE GIBSON JJ, 1966, SENSES CONSIDERED PE HEBERLEIN TA, 1981, ENVIRON BEHAV, V13, P717 HOLAHAN CJ, 1982, ENV PSYCHOL KINDER DR, 1981, J PERS SOC PSYCHOL, V40, P414 LANG J, 1987, CREATING ARCHITECTUR MCGUIRE WJ, 1985, HDB SOCIAL PSYCHOL, V2, P233 NASAR JL, 1989, ENVIRON BEHAV, V21, P235 ORIORDAN T, 1976, ENVIRONMENTALISM PRATKANIS AR, 1989, ATTITUDE STRUCTURE F ROYCE JR, 1965, PSYCHOL SYMBOL SAMDAHL DM, 1989, ENVIRON BEHAV, V21, P57 SCHUMAN H, 1976, ANNU REV SOCIOL, V2, P161 SEARS DO, 1980, AM POLIT SCI REV, V74, P60 SHAVITT S, 1990, ATTITUDE STRUCTURE F SMITH MB, 1956, OPINIONS PERSONALITY SPERBER D, 1975, RETHINKING SYMBOLISM TESSER A, 1990, ANNU REV PSYCHOL, V41, P479 VANCLAY F, 1992, AGR ENV SOC CONT ISS VANCLAY FM, 1989, FARMERS PERCEPTIONS VANLIERE KD, 1981, ENVIRON BEHAV, V13, P651 WOELFEL J, 1980, MESSAGE ATTITUDE BEH ZANNA MP, 1988, SOCIAL PSYCHOL KNOWL NR 40 TC 9 J9 ENVIRON BEHAV BP 555 EP 576 PY 1993 PD SEP VL 25 IS 5 GA LT236 UT ISI:A1993LT23600001 ER PT J AU Dimitrov, RS TI Water, conflict, and security: A conceptual minefield SO SOCIETY & NATURAL RESOURCES LA English DT Article C1 Univ Minnesota, Dept Polit Sci, Minneapolis, MN USA. RP Dimitrov, RS, 1261 Gibbs Ave, St Paul, MN 55108 USA. AB Approaches to water planning and international arrangements Jar water conflict resolution are conditioned by the context in which water resources are discussed and by the priorities that emerge from such discussions, This chapter analyzes the consequences of linking water to security issues, and the paradigmatic influence of competing notions of security on water policy directions. I develop a generic model of what constitutes any notion of security: what is to be protected, from what dangers, by what means, and by whom. This template is used as all analytical device to consider three distinct versions of environmental security: (1) prevention of environmental conflicts, (2) food security, and (3) ecological security. The Central argument is that these diverse conceptions drive water discourses in divergent directions, and establish goals that are not easily compatible with one another. pursuing one type of security is likely to compromise other types. 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Univ Maryland, Dept Geog, College Pk, MD 20742 USA. Univ Maryland, Earth Syst Sci Interdisciplinary Ctr, College Pk, MD 20742 USA. Carnegie Inst Washington, Dept Global Ecol, Stanford, CA 94305 USA. Natl Ctr Atmospher Res, Boulder, CO 80307 USA. Univ Wisconsin, Ctr Limnol, Madison, WI 53706 USA. Univ Alaska, Inst Arctic Biol, Fairbanks, AK 99775 USA. Stanford Univ, Dept Biol Sci, Ctr Conservat Biol, Stanford, CA 94305 USA. Univ Bristol, Dept Earth Sci, Bristol BS8 1RJ, Avon, England. Univ Illinois, Dept Atmospher Sci, Urbana, IL 61801 USA. RP Foley, JA, Univ Wisconsin, Ctr Sustainabil & Global Environm, 1710 Univ Ave, Madison, WI 53726 USA. AB Land use has generally been considered a local environmental issue, but it is becoming a force of global importance. Worldwide changes to forests, farmlands, waterways, and air are being driven by the need to provide food, fiber, water, and shelter to more than six billion people. Global croplands, pastures, plantations, and urban areas have expanded in recent decades, accompanied by large increases in energy, water, and fertilizer consumption, along with considerable tosses of biodiversity. Such changes in land use have enabled humans to appropriate an increasing share of the planet's resources, but they also potentially undermine the capacity of ecosystems to sustain food production, maintain freshwater and forest resources, regulate climate and air quality, and ameliorate infectious diseases. We face the challenge of managing trade-offs between immediate human needs and maintaining the capacity of the biosphere to provide goods and services in the long term. CR *ED STAFF, 1999, ENV HLTH PERSP, V107, P139 *FOOD AGR ORG, 2004, FAOSTAT FOR DAT *MILL EC ASS, 2003, EC HUM WELLB FRAM AS *US EPA, 2003, HEAT ISL EFF ASNER GP, 2004, ANN REV ENV RESOUR, V29 BENNETT EM, 2001, BIOSCIENCE, V51, P227 BONAN GB, 1992, NATURE, V359, P716 BONAN GB, 2002, ECOLOGICAL CLIMATOLO CARPENTER SR, 1998, ECOL APPL, V8, P559 CASSMAN KG, 2002, AMBIO, V31, P132 CHUA KB, 1999, LANCET, V354, P1257 COCKBURN A, 1999, INT J HEALTH SERV, V29, P459 COSTA MH, 2000, J CLIMATE, V13, P18 COSTA MH, 2003, J HYDROL, V283, P206 COSTANZA R, 2000, BIOSCIENCE, V50, P149 DAILY GC, 1997, NATURES SERVICES SOC DEFRIES R, 2004, GEOPHYS MONOGRAPH SE, V153 DEFRIES RS, 2004, FRONT ECOL ENVIRON, V2, P249 FANG JY, 2001, SCIENCE, V292, P2320 FRINK CR, 1999, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V96, P1175 GIBBS HK, 2001, THESIS OHIO STAT U C GLEICK PH, 2003, ANNU REV ENV RESOUR, V28, P275 GUO ZW, 2000, ECOL APPL, V10, P925 HOUGHTON RA, 2001, ORNLCDIAC131 KALNAY E, 2003, NATURE, V423, P528 KAUPPI PE, 1992, SCIENCE, V256, P70 KREMEN C, 2002, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V99, P16812 LAL R, 2001, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V51, P35 MANN CC, 1999, SCIENCE, V283, P310 MATSON PA, 1997, SCIENCE, V277, P504 MOLS CMM, 2002, J APPL ECOL, V39, P888 NABUURS GJ, 2003, GLOBAL CHANGE BIOL, V9, P152 NEPSTAD DC, 1999, NATURE, V398, P505 PATZ JA, 2004, ENVIRON HEALTH PERSP, V112, P1092 PIELKE RA, 2002, PHILOS T ROY SOC A, V360, P1705 PIMM SL, 2000, NATURE, V403, P843 POSTEL SL, 1996, SCIENCE, V271, P785 POSTEL SL, 1999, PILLAR SAND CAN MIRA RAMANKUTTY N, 1999, GLOBAL BIOGEOCHEM CY, V13, P997 RICKETTS TH, IN PRESS P NATL ACAD ROSE JB, 2001, ENVIRON HEALTH PE S2, V109, P211 ROSEGRANT MW, 2002, WORLD WATER FOOD 202 ROSENBERG NJ, 2001, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V51, P1 SAHIN V, 1996, J HYDROL, V178, P293 SCHEFFER M, 2001, NATURE, V413, P591 SHIKLOMANOV IA, 1998, UN COMPREHENSIVE ASS SILLMAN S, 1995, J GEOPHYS RES-ATMOS, V100, P11497 SNYDER PK, 2004, CLIM DYNAM, V23, P279 TILMAN D, 1998, NATURE, V396, P211 TILMAN D, 2001, SCIENCE, V292, P281 TOWNSEND AR, 2003, FRONT ECOL ENVIRON, V1, P240 TURNER BL, 2003, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V100, P8074 VITOUSEK PM, 1986, BIOSCIENCE, V36, P368 VITOUSEK PM, 1997, SCIENCE, V277, P494 VITTOR AY, IN PRESS J AM TROP M VOROSMARTY CJ, 2000, SCIENCE, V289, P284 WACKERNAGEL M, 2002, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V99, P9266 WILLIAMS M, 1990, EARTH TRANSFORMED HU, P179 WOLFE ND, 2004, LANCET, V363, P932 WOOD S, 2000, PILOT ANAL GLOBAL EC WU N, 1991, SE ASIAN J TROP MED, V22, P436 ZHOU LM, 2004, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V101, P9540 NR 62 TC 53 J9 SCIENCE BP 570 EP 574 PY 2005 PD JUL 22 VL 309 IS 5734 GA 948SE UT ISI:000230735200036 ER PT J AU WESTING, AH TI ENVIRONMENTAL REFUGEES - A GROWING CATEGORY OF DISPLACED PERSONS SO ENVIRONMENTAL CONSERVATION LA English DT Article RP WESTING, AH, WESTING ASSOCIATES ENVIRONM SECUR & EDUC,RFD 1,BOX 919,PUTNEY,VT 05346. AB Examined here is the problem of persons compelled to flee from their areas of habitual residence. The number of such displaced persons (refugees), both nationally internal and cross-border, already in the many millions, nonetheless keeps increasing by perhaps 3 millions per year. Many of the uprooted continue to flee owing to persecution, oppression, or war. However, these triggering events appear not to have been worsening markedly in recent years. Other, more strictly environmental, refugees flee from such natural disasters as flooding, drought, and volcanic action, although these triggering events have also not been increasing in frequency or severity. It is thus suggested here that the continuing increases in refugees result from transgressions of the carrying capacity - that is, of unsustainable increases in human (and associated livestock) numbers, often associated with site deterioration or actual habitat degradation. Such displaced persons have been referred to as 'environmental refugees'. It is clear that in the long term the poignant dilemma of the ever-increasing numbers of refugees can be addressed only in terms of achieving environmental security within a framework of comprehensive human security. CR 1979, COLLECTION INT INSTR 1990, WORLD DEV REPORT 199 1991, CARING EARTH STRATEG 1991, HUMAN DEV REPORT 199 1991, UN120 DEP INT EC SOC 1991, WORLD MILITARY EXPEN 1991, WORLD REFUGEE SURVEY APPLEYARD RT, 1991, INT MIGRATIONS CHALL BAGENDA AMS, 1991, WAR ARMED CONFLICT D, P81 BEYER GA, 1989, IMPROVING INT RESPON CERNEA M, 1991, PUTTING PEOPLE 1 SOC, P188 ELHINNAWI E, 1985, ENV REFUGEES GLEICK PH, 1989, AMBIO, V18, P333 HARDIN G, 1985, AM ZOOL, V25, P469 HOMERDIXON TF, 1991, INT SECURITY, V16, P76 HORVATHLINDBERG J, 1991, WORKING REFUGEES ASY JACOBSON JL, 1988, ENV REFUGEES YARDSTI JACQUES A, 1986, STRANGER YOUR GATES KREIMER A, 1991, MANAGING NATURAL DIS LINDGREN K, 1991, SIPRI YB, P345 MATHEWS JT, 1989, FOREIGN AFF, V68, P162 MCCOLM RB, 1991, FREEDOM WORLD POLITI MOLVAER RK, 1991, B PEACE PROPOSALS, V22, P175 MYERS N, 1986, ENVIRONMENTALIST, V6, P251 MYERS N, 1989, FOREIGN POLICY, P23 NEWLAND K, 1981, 43 WORLDW I PAP SIVARD RL, 1991, WORLD MILITARY SOCIA SMYSER WR, 1985, FOREIGN AFF, V64, P154 TROLLDALEN JM, 1992, ENV REFUGEES DISCUSS WESTING AH, 1985, EXPLOSIVE REMNANTS W, P1 WESTING AH, 1986, GLOBAL RESOURCES INT, P183 WESTING AH, 1989, ENVIRON CONSERV, V16, P295 WESTING AH, 1990, ENV HAZARDS WAR RELE, P1 WESTING AH, 1990, MAINTENANCE BIOSPHER, P109 WESTING AH, 1991, AMBIO, V20, P168 WIDGREN J, 1990, INT AFF, V66, P749 WIJKMAN A, 1984, NATURAL DISASTERS AC NR 37 TC 16 J9 ENVIRON CONSERV BP 201 EP 207 PY 1992 PD FAL VL 19 IS 3 GA KJ805 UT ISI:A1992KJ80500007 ER PT J AU Lambin, EF Turner, BL Geist, HJ Agbola, SB Angelsen, A Bruce, JW Coomes, OT Dirzo, R Fischer, G Folke, C George, PS Homewood, K Imbernon, J Leemans, R Li, XB Moran, EF Mortimore, MJ Ramakrishnan, PS Richards, JF Skanes, H Steffen, W Stone, GD Svedin, U Veldkamp, TA Vogel, C Xu, JC TI The causes of land-use and land-cover change: moving beyond the myths SO GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS LA English DT Article C1 Univ Catholique Louvain, Dept Geog, B-1348 Louvain, Belgium. Clark Univ, George Perkins Marsh Inst, Worcester, MA 01610 USA. Univ Ibadan, Ctr Urban & Reg Planning, Ibadan, Nigeria. Agr Univ Norway, Dept Econ & Social Sci, N-1432 As, Norway. Univ Wisconsin, Land Tenure Ctr, Madison, WI 53715 USA. McGill Univ, Dept Geog, Montreal, PQ H3A 2K6, Canada. Univ Nacl Autonoma Mexico, Inst Ecol, Mexico City 04510, DF, Mexico. Int Inst Appl Syst Anal, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria. Univ Stockholm, Dept Syst Ecol, S-10691 Stockholm, Sweden. Ctr Dev Studies, Trivandrum 695011, Kerala, India. Univ London Univ Coll, Dept Anthropol, London WC1E 6BT, England. Ctr Cooperat Int Rech Agron Dev, F-34032 Montpellier, France. Natl Inst Publ Hlth & Environm, Bur Environm & Nat Assessments, NL-3720 BA Bilthoven, Netherlands. Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China. Indiana Univ, Ctr Study Inst Populat & Environm Change, Bloomington, IN 47405 USA. Drylands Res, Crewkerne TA18 7LG, Somerset, England. Jawaharlal Nehru Univ, Sch Environm Sci, New Delhi 110067, India. Duke Univ, Dept Hist, Durham, NC 27701 USA. Stockholm Univ, Dept Phys Geog, S-10691 Stockholm, Sweden. Royal Swedish Acad Sci, Int Geosphere Biosphere Programme, S-10405 Stockholm, Sweden. Washington Univ, Dept Anthropol, St Louis, MO 63130 USA. Swedish Council Planning & Coordinat Res, S-10387 Stockholm, Sweden. Wageningen Univ Agr, Lab Soil Sci & Geol, NL-6700 AA Wageningen, Netherlands. Univ Witwatersrand, Dept Geog & Environm Studies, ZA-2050 Johannesburg, South Africa. Chinese Acad Sci, Kunming Inst Bot, Kunming 650204, Yunnan, Peoples R China. RP Lambin, EF, Univ Catholique Louvain, Dept Geog, Pl Louis Pasteur 3, B-1348 Louvain, Belgium. AB Common understanding of the causes of land-use and land-cover change is dominated by simplifications which, in turn, underlie many environment-development policies. This article tracks some of the major myths on driving forces of land-cover change and proposes alternative pathways of change that are better supported by case study evidence. Cases reviewed support the conclusion that neither population nor poverty alone constitute the sole and major underlying causes of land-cover change worldwide. Rather, peoples' responses to economic opportunities, as mediated by institutional factors, drive land-cover changes. Opportunities andconstraints for new land uses are created by local as well as national markets and policies. Global forces become the main determinants of land-use change, as they amplify or attenuate local factors. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *COMM GLOB CHANG R, 1999, GLOB ENV CHANG RES P *INT PAN CLIM CHAN, 2000, LAND US LAND US CHAN *UN POP FUND, 1991, POP RES ENV CRIT CHA ALLEN JC, 1985, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V75, P163 ALTIERI MA, 1999, AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON, V74, P19 ANDERSEN LE, 1996, J ENV DEV, V5, P309 ANGELSEN A, 1995, WORLD DEV, V23, P1713 ANGELSEN A, 1999, WORLD BANK RES OBSER, V14, P73 BARRACLOUGH SL, 1996, ECOLOGIST, V26, P104 BASSETT TJ, 2000, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V90, P67 BEHNKE R, 1993, RANGE ECOLOGY DISEQU BERGLUND BE, 1991, PROJECT ECOL B, V41 BLAIKIE PM, 1987, LAND DEGRADATION SOC BOYCE JK, 1987, AGRARIAN IMPASSE BEN BRAY F, 1986, RICE EC TECHNOLOGY D CHASE TN, 2000, CLIM DYNAM, V16, P93 COOMES OT, 1996, WORLD DEV, V24, P1333 COOMES OT, 1997, AGROFOREST SYST, V37, P27 DASGUPTA P, 2000, BIOSCIENCE, V50, P339 EHRLICH PR, 1971, SCIENCE, V171, P1212 ELLIS JE, 1988, J RANGE MANAGE, V41, P450 ENGLISH J, 1998, MALAWI IMPACT EVALUA FAIRHEAD J, 1996, MISREADING AFRICAN L FAMINOW MD, 1998, CATTLE DEFORESTATION FOLKE C, 1997, AMBIO, V26, P167 GEIST HJ, 2001, LUCC REPORT SERIES, V4 GOLDEWIJK K, 1997, 100 YEAR DATABASE IN GRUBLER A, 1994, CHANGES LAND USE LAN, P287 GUYER JI, 1997, REV ANTHR, V26, P13 HECHT SB, 1985, WORLD DEV, V13, P663 HEILIG GK, 1994, POPUL DEV REV, V20, P831 HOLLING CS, 1996, CONSERV BIOL, V10, P328 HOUGHTON RA, 1999, SCIENCE, V285, P574 IMBERNON J, 1999, AMBIO, V28, P509 KASPERSON JX, 1995, REGIONS RISK, V1, P1 KATES RW, 2000, ENVIRONMENT, V42, P10 LAMBIN EF, 1999, 48 IGBP IHDP LOVELAND TR, 1999, PHOTOGRAMM ENG REM S, V65, P1021 MATHER AS, 2000, GEOGR J 1, V166, P2 MENDOZA E, 1999, BIODIVERS CONSERV, V8, P1621 MERTENS B, 2000, WORLD DEV, V28, P983 MORAN EF, 1993, HUM ECOL, V21, P1 MORTIMORE MJ, 1994, ENVIRONMENT, V36, P10 MORTIMORE MJ, 1999, WORKING SAHEL ENV SO NETTING RM, 1993, SMALLHOLDERS HOUSEHO NIAMIRFULLER M, 1998, LINKING SOCIAL ECOLO, P250 OBA G, 2000, BIOSCIENCE, V50, P35 OSTROM E, 1999, SCIENCE, V284, P278 PUIGDEFABREGAS J, 1998, LAND DEGRAD DEV, V9, P383 RAMAKRISHNAN PS, 1992, SHIFTING AGR SUSTAIN RAMAKRISHNAN PS, 2000, MOUNTAIN BIODIVERSIT RAMANKUTTY N, 1999, GLOBAL BIOGEOCHEM CY, V13, P997 RICHARDS JF, 1988, WORLD DEFORESTATION RUDEL T, 1996, AMBIO, V25, P160 RUDEL TK, 1993, TROPICAL DEFORESTATI SACK RD, 1992, PLACE MODERNITY CONS SALA OE, 2000, SCIENCE, V287, P1770 SANDFORD S, 1983, MANAGEMENT PASTORAL SCHMINK M, 1992, CONTESTED FRONTIERS SNEATH D, 1998, SCIENCE, V281, P1147 SOLBRIG O, 1993, MAN BIOSPHERE SERIES, V12 STONE GD, 1998, HUM ECOL, V26, P239 SVEDIN U, 1999, GLOBALIZATION ITS IM, P231 TILMAN D, 1999, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V96, P5995 TOLBA MK, 1992, WORLD ENV 1972 1992 TURNER BL, 1990, EARTH TRANSFORMED HU TURNER BL, 1993, POPULATION GROWTH AG TURNER BL, 1996, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V93, P14984 VITOUSEK PM, 1997, SCIENCE, V277, P494 WALKER BH, 1993, AMBIO, V22, P80 WILBANKS TJ, 1999, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V43, P601 XU JC, 1999, MT RES DEV, V19, P123 NR 72 TC 39 J9 GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANGE BP 261 EP 269 PY 2001 PD DEC VL 11 IS 4 GA 503KB UT ISI:000172796700002 ER PT J AU Stedman, RC TI Risk and climate change: Perceptions of key policy actors in Canada SO RISK ANALYSIS LA English DT Article AB This article examines factors that predict perceptions of risk associated with global climate change. The research focuses on the perceptions of those associated with climate change policy making in the prairie region of Canada. The data are from an online survey (n = 851) of those policy actors. The analysis integrates several dominant approaches to the study of risk perception: psychometric approaches that examine the effects of cognitive structure; demographic assessments that examine, for example, differences in perception based on gender or family status; and political approaches that suggest that one's position in the policy process may affect his or her perceived risk. Attitudes toward climate change are to a degree predicted by all of these factors, but only when indirect effects are observed. Sociodemographic characteristics have little direct effect on perceived risk, but do affect general beliefs that affect risk perceptions. Perceived risk is related more strongly to these general beliefs or world views than to more specific beliefs about the effects of climate change on weather patterns. Position within the policy process also contributes to our understanding of perceptions, with industry and governmental actors demonstrating similar attitudes, which contrast with environmental groups and university researchers. CR MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 ALDENDEFER MS, 1984, CLUSTER ANAL BEM DJ, 1970, BELIEFS ATTITUDES HU BERNSTEIN S, 2002, POLICY SCI, V35, P203 BORD RJ, 1998, CLIMATE RES, V11, P75 BOSTROM A, 1994, RISK ANAL, V14, P959 DAVIDSON DJ, 1996, ENVIRON BEHAV, V28, P302 DIETZ T, 1989, SOCIOL FORUM, V4, P47 DUNLAP RE, 1978, J ENVIRON EDUC, V9, P10 DUNLAP RE, 1998, INT SOCIOL, V13, P473 FLYNN J, 1994, RISK ANAL, V14, P1101 HERRMANN RO, 2000, J AM DIET ASSOC, V100, P947 KEMPTON W, 1993, ANNU REV ENERG ENV, V18, P217 KRAUS N, 1992, RISK ANAL, V12, P215 LAZO JK, 1999, RISK HLTH SAFETY ENV, V10, P45 LAZO JK, 2000, RISK ANAL, V20, P179 MCDANIELS T, 1995, RISK ANAL, V15, P575 OCONNOR R, 1999, RISK DECISION POLICY, V4, P255 OCONNOR RE, 1999, RISK ANAL, V19, P461 ORIORDAN T, 1999, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V9, P81 PERRON B, 2001, SOC NATUR RESOUR, V14, P837 READ D, 1994, RISK ANAL, V14, P971 REDCLIFT M, 1994, GLOBAL THEORY ENV ROBERTS JT, 1996, SOCIOL INQ, V66, P38 ROKEACH M, 1972, BELIEFS ATTITUDES VA SABATIER PA, 1999, THEORIES POLICY PROC, P117 SAVAGE I, 1993, RISK ANAL, V13, P413 SLOVIC P, 1995, RISK ANAL, V15, P661 SONNENFELD DA, 2002, AM BEHAV SCI, V45, P1318 STERN PC, 1995, ENVIRON BEHAV, V27, P723 WARLAND R, 2003, COMMUNICATION WILENIUS M, 1996, ACTA SOCIOL, V39, P5 NR 32 TC 3 J9 RISK ANAL BP 1395 EP 1406 PY 2004 PD OCT VL 24 IS 5 GA 875ML UT ISI:000225424400027 ER PT J AU Uddameri, V Honnungar, V TI Combining rough sets and GIS techniques to assess aquifer vulnerability characteristics in the semi-arid South Texas SO ENVIRONMENTAL GEOLOGY LA English DT Article C1 Texas A&M Univ, Dept Environm Engn, MSC 213, Kingsville, TX 78363 USA. RP Uddameri, V, Texas A&M Univ, Dept Environm Engn, MSC 213, Kingsville, TX 78363 USA. AB The coastal semi-arid region of South Texas is undergoing significant growth causing an enormous burden on its limited water resources. Understanding regional-scale vulnerability of this resource is important for sustainable water resources management and land use development. In this study, DRASTIC methodology is integrated with an information-analytic technique called rough sets to understand groundwater vulnerability characteristics in 18 different counties of South Texas. The rough set theory provides three useful metrics: the strength factor which depicts how vulnerability characteristics occur over the area; the certainty factor computes the relative probabilities for various vulnerability states within a county and the coverage factor which elucidates the fraction of a specific vulnerability state present in each county. The coupling of rough sets with GIS is particularly advantageous to cluster counties exhibiting similar vulnerability characteristics and to obtain other related insights. The application of the approach indicates that the groundwater vulnerability exhibits greater variability along the coast than in the interior sections of the area. The shallow aquifer in Aransas, DeWitt, Goliad and Gonzales counties is the most vulnerable, while the aquifer in Duval, Jim Wells, Karnes, Live Oak, Nueces and San Patricio is less vulnerable. This approach should prove useful to regional planners and environmental managers entrusted with the protection of groundwater resources. CR *EROS USGS, DIG EL MOD DEM TOP *NCDC NOAA, HIST PREC REC *NRCS USDA, STAT SOIL GEOGR STAT *TWDB, 2000, TEX GROUNDW DAT *US CENS BUR, ADM MAPS TEX TIGER M ALADAMAT RAN, 2003, APPL GEOGR, V23, P303 ALLER L, 1987, EPA600287035, P455 ALZABET T, 2002, ENVIRON GEOL, V43, P203 AN AJ, 1996, ENG APPL ARTIF INTEL, V9, P645 BAKER ET, 1979, 236 TEX DEP WAT RES, P43 CAMERON E, 2001, ENVIRON GEOL, V40, P1305 CHANAS S, 1992, FUZZY SET SYST, V47, P391 EDET AE, 2004, ENVIRON GEOL, V45, P1062 EVANS BM, 1990, J SOIL WATER CONSERV, V45, P242 FREDRICK KC, 2004, ENVIRON GEOL, V45, P1054 KOMOROWSKI J, 1999, ROUGH SETS TUTORIAL PAWLAK Z, 1982, INT J COMPUT INF SCI, V11, P341 PAWLAK Z, 2005, EUR J OPER RES, V166, P649 SHEN Q, 2001, ARTIF INTELL ENG, V15, P13 TAN RR, 2005, ENVIRON MODELL SOFTW, V20, P509 WILLIAMS JR, 1991, WATER PERCOLATION IN NR 21 TC 0 J9 ENVIRON GEOL BP 931 EP 939 PY 2007 PD JAN VL 51 IS 6 GA 123VF UT ISI:000243323500006 ER PT J AU Findlay, AM TI Vulnerable spatialities SO POPULATION SPACE AND PLACE LA English DT Editorial Material C1 Univ Dundee, Dept Geog, Dundee DD1 4HN, Scotland. RP Findlay, AM, Univ Dundee, Dept Geog, Dundee DD1 4HN, Scotland. AB The tsunami of 26 December 2004 provided an empirical lens to explore the multiple geographical dimensions of population vulnerability. Examining the global reach of the tsunami provides a useful starting point in researching the changing spatial significance of events such as this. Defining spatial vulnerabilities is, however, very problematic, especially when producing conventional metrics such as measuring the death rate is so difficult. The paper explores the spatialities of vulnerability relative to what is knowable about the political, economic and social contexts of vulnerable peoples'. It is argued that 'spatial context' needs to be conceptualised as contingent, and that relational understandings can help to understand how vulnerabilities, including those associated with the tsunami, are represented. While relational thinking has profound implications for how spatial vulnerabilities are studied by researchers working amongst communities at risk, the article closes by recommending that population researchers maintain a pluralistic vision of research praxis. In discussing these issues the article also provides a conceptual framework within which the work of other geographers in general, and the contributions of other papers in this special issue in particular, may be located. Copyright (c) 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. CR *BBC, 2005, UK VICT AS TSUN AGNEW J, 2004, SPACES GEOGRAPHICAL, P81 BAILEY A, 2005, MAKING POPULATION GE BECK U, 1992, RISK SOC BLAIKIE PM, 1994, RISK NATURAL HAZARDS, V1, P1 BROWN M, 1995, ENVIRON PLANN D, V13, P159 BROWN M, 2001, ENVIRON PLANN A, V33, P799 CANNON T, 1994, DISASTERS DEV ENV, P13 CLARKE J, 1989, POPULATION DISASTER CLOKE P, 2004, SPACES GEOGRAPHICAL, P1 COLEMAN D, 2005, NEW DEMOGRAPHIC REGI, P11 CUTTER SL, 2003, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V93, P1 DRANE J, 2000, CULTURAL CHANGE BIBL FINDLAY AM, 2003, SCOT GEOGR J, V119, P177 FYFE NR, 2005, POPUL SPACE PLACE, V11, P513 GATTRELL AC, 2002, GEOGRAPHIES HLTH GRAHAM S, 2005, ENVIRON PLANN D, V23, P1 GREGORY D, 1994, GEOGRAPHICAL IMAGINA GREGORY D, 2000, DICT HUMAN GEOGRAPHY, P330 GREGORY D, 2004, ENVIRON PLANN D, V22, P317 HEIKKILA E, 2005, POPUL SPACE PLACE, V11, P485 HOGAN DJ, 2005, POPUL SPACE PLACE, V11, P455 KING R, 2003, EXPLODING MIGRATION LAW L, 2000, SEX WORKERS S E ASIA LEE R, 2004, GEOGRAPHIES MORALITI LEGG S, 2005, POPUL SPACE PLACE, V11, P137 NEUBERGER J, 2005, MORAL STATE WERE IN PHILO C, 2005, POPUL SPACE PLACE, V11, P441 POLKINGHORNE J, 2000, GOD 21 CENTURY SEN AK, 1981, POVERTY FAMINES ESSA, V1, P1 SMITH N, 1990, UNEVEN DEV STEWART E, 2005, POPUL SPACE PLACE, V11, P499 VALENTINE G, 1995, INT J URBAN REGIONAL, V19, P96 WATTS MJ, 1993, PROG HUM GEOG, V17, P43 WHITE G, 1974, NARURAL HAZARDS LOCA YANCEY P, 1998, I WAS JUST WONDERING NR 36 TC 5 J9 POPUL SPACE PLACE BP 429 EP 439 PY 2005 PD NOV-DEC VL 11 IS 6 GA 003VW UT ISI:000234710900001 ER PT J AU Albala-Bertrand, JM TI Responses to complex humanitarian emergencies and natural disasters: an analytical comparison SO THIRD WORLD QUARTERLY LA English DT Article C1 Univ London Queen Mary & Westfield Coll, Dept Econ, London E1 4NS, England. RP Albala-Bertrand, JM, Univ London Queen Mary & Westfield Coll, Dept Econ, Mile End Rd, London E1 4NS, England. AB This article analytically compares complex humanitarian emergencies with natural disasters, concentrating on disaster responses and interference with society. There are some important analytical differences between the responses to these two types of disaster, like overlapping and interactions, persistence and duration, access and timing, assistance involvement and intervention, physical and societal recovery, and others. However, the fundamental difference between natural and politically induced disasters is the way institutions are affected, bz natural disasters, there can be some significant interference with society and therefore institutional change arising from both the impact effects and the responses, bur this is infrequent, mostly incidental and not normally widespread or long-term. In complex emergencies, most aspects of the impact and effects have deliberate institutional aims and overtones. Likewise, the response to this type of calamity is also bound to cause significant interference with society, which may be intense, long-term and mostly deliberate. CR *ODS, 1997, OXF DEV STUD, V25 AKE C, 1997, RES ACTION, V31 ALBALABERTRAND JM, 1920, IN PRESS OXFORD DEV ALBALABERTRAND JM, 1920, IN PRESS WHAT IS COM ALBALABERTRAND JM, 1993, POLITICAL EC LARGE N BARTON A, 1970, COMMUNITIES DISASTER BENRAFAEL E, 1979, SOCIAL ASPECTS TUERI BLACK G, 1981, TRIUMPH PEOPLE BROWN MT, 1997, NATIONALISM ETHNIC C CHAKRABARTY SK, 1978, EVOLUTION POLITICS B COCHRANE HC, 1975, NATURAL HAZARDS THEI CUNY FC, 1983, DISASTER DEV DACY DC, 1969, EC NATURAL DISASTES DAVIS I, 1981, DISASTER SMALL DWELL DEWAAL A, 1994, WAR HUNGER DREZE J, 1990, POLITICAL EC HUNGER DUFFIELD M, 1994, WAR HUNGER DYNES RR, 1970, ORG BEHAV DISASTER GEIPEL R, 1982, DISASTER RECONSTRUCT GIARINI O, 1984, GENEVA PAPERS RISK I GODSCHALK DR, 1998, MAKING MITIGATION WO GREN RH, 1994, WAR HUNGER HARSCH E, 1978, ETHIOPIAN REVOLUTION HOFFMAN M, 1997, LSE MAGAZINE, V9, P35 HOLSTI KJ, 1991, PEACE WAR ARMED CONF HOLSTI KJ, 1996, STATE WAR STATE WAR KEEN D, 1994, WAR HUNGER KUNREUTHER H, 1997, GENEVA PAP RISK INS, V83, P151 LATEEF NV, 1982, CRISIS SAHEL CASE ST MACRAE J, 1994, WAR HUNGER MILETI DS, 1988, MENTAL HLTH RESPONSE, P321 NAFZIGER EW, 1997, 142 WIDER QUARANTELLI EL, 1978, DISASTER THEORY RES RANGASAMI A, 1985, ECON POLIT WEEKLY, V20, P234 SEN AK, 1981, POVERTY FAMINES ESSA, V1, P1 SILBER L, 1996, DEATH YUGOSLAVIA SMITH K, 1992, ENV HAZARDS ASSESSIN SOROKIN PA, 1942, MAN SOC CALAMITY VAYRYNEN R, 1996, AGE HUMANITARIAN EME, V25 WHITE GF, 1975, ASSESSMENT RES NATUR, V1, P1 NR 40 TC 0 J9 THIRD WORLD Q BP 215 EP 227 PY 2000 PD APR VL 21 IS 2 GA 309VV UT ISI:000086790700003 ER PT J AU Vogel, C TI Disaster management in South Africa SO SOUTH AFRICAN JOURNAL OF SCIENCE LA English DT Editorial Material C1 Univ Witwatersrand, Dept Geog & Environm Studies, ZA-2050 Wits, South Africa. RP Vogel, C, Univ Witwatersrand, Dept Geog & Environm Studies, ZA-2050 Wits, South Africa. AB 'Disaster management' and disaster analysis in South Africa have undergone changes in the last two decades. This article reviews these developments, locates them within the broader international discourse and provides an assessment of current policy initiatives. In the past, responsibilities for disaster management were divided among several government agencies. Current initiatives, heralded by a green paper attempt to improve the co-ordination of these parties and to move from viewing disasters as isolated acts of nature to being the outcome of unmanaged risk. CR ADAMS L, 1993, INDICATOR SA, V10, P41 ALEXANDER WJR, 1994, WORLD C NAT DIS RED ANDERSON MB, 1989, RISING ASHES DEV STR ANDERSON MB, 1993, CHALLENGE FAMINE, P131 BENSON C, 1994, 77 OV DEV I BLAIKIE PM, 1994, RISK NATURAL HAZARDS, V1, P1 BRUWER JJ, 1989, DROUGHT NETWORK NEWS, V1, P14 BRUWER JJ, 1990, DROUGHT NETWORK NEWS, V2, P10 CUTTER SL, 1996, PROG HUM GEOG, V20, P529 DOW KM, 1992, GEOFORUM, V23, P417 HOBSON S, 1993, DROUGHT NETWORK NEWS, V5, P3 SMITH DI, 1993, SEARCH, V24, P292 VOGEL C, 1994, S AFR J SCI, V90, P4 WATTS MJ, 1993, PROG HUM GEOG, V17, P43 NR 14 TC 1 J9 S AFR J SCI BP 98 EP 100 PY 1998 PD MAR VL 94 IS 3 GA ZQ453 UT ISI:000073863600001 ER PT J AU Simonovic, SP Li, LH TI Sensitivity of the Red River basin flood protection system to climate variability and change SO WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article C1 Univ Western Ontario, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Inst Catastroph Loss Reduct, London, ON, Canada. RP Simonovic, SP, Univ Western Ontario, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Inst Catastroph Loss Reduct, London, ON, Canada. AB An original modeling framework for assessment of climate variation and change impacts on the performance of complex flood protection system has been implemented in the evaluation of the impact of climate variability and change on the reliability, vulnerability and resiliency of the Red River Basin flood protection system ( Manitoba, Canada). The modeling framework allows for an evaluation of different climate change scenarios generated by the global climate models. Temperature and precipitation are used as the main factors affecting flood flow generation. System dynamics modeling approach proved to be of great value in the development of system performance assessment model. The most important impact of climate variability and change on hydrologic processes is reflected in the change of flood patterns: flood starting time, peak value and timing. The results show increase in the annual precipitation and the annual streamflow volume in the Red River basin under the future climate change scenarios. Most of the floods generated using three different climate models had an earlier starting time and peak time. The assessment of the performance of Red River flood protection system is based on the flood flows, the capacity of flood control structures and failure flow levels at different locations in the basin. In the Assiniboine River Basin, higher reliabilities at downstream locations are obtained indicating that Shellmouth reservoir plays an important role in reducing downstream flooding. However, a different trend was identified in the Red River Basin. The study results show that flood protection capacity of the Red River infrastructure is sufficient under low reliability criteria but may not be sufficient under high reliability criteria. CR *INT JOINT COMM, 2000, LIV RED REP GOV CAN, P273 *KONTZ GRAUM SMITH, 2000, FLOOD PROT WINN 3 AHMAD S, 2000, J COMPUT CIVIL ENG, V14, P190 BICKNELL BR, 1997, EPA600R97080, P755 BURN DH, 1986, WATER RESOUR MANAG, V10, P463 BURN DH, 1991, CAN J CIVIL ENG, V18, P36 BURN DH, 1994, J HYDROL, V160, P53 FORESTER JW, 1968, PRINCIPLES SYSTEMS HASHIMOTO T, 1982, WATER RESOUR RES, V18, P14 HURD BH, 1999, J AM WATER RESOUR AS, V35, P1399 KITE GW, 1994, WATER RESOUR RES, V30, P1547 KLEMES V, 1985, WCP98 WORLD MET ORG, P115 LEAVESLEY GH, 1983, 834238 US GEOL SURV, P207 LETTENMAIER DP, 1990, WATER RESOUR RES, V26, P69 LI L, 2002, HYDROL PROCESS, V16, P2645 MOY WS, 1986, WATER RESOUR RES, V22, P489 REVELLE RR, 1983, CHANGING CLIMATE REP SIMONOVIC SP, 1992, J WATER RES PL-ASCE, V118, P262 SIMONOVIC SP, 2001, ASSESSMENT IMPACT CL, P93 SIMONOVIC SP, 2003, NAT HAZARDS, V28, P345 SIMONOVIC SP, 2003, WATER RESOUR PLANN M, V129, P361 SINGH B, 1988, 8808 ENV CAN ATM ENV STERMAN JD, 2000, BUSINESS DYNAMICS SY WARKENTIN AA, 1999, HYDROMETEOROLOGIC PA ZHANG XB, 2001, WATER RESOUR RES, V37, P987 NR 25 TC 0 J9 WATER RESOUR MANAG BP 89 EP 110 PY 2004 PD APR VL 18 IS 2 GA 813TE UT ISI:000220928600001 ER PT J AU Breslow, PB Sailor, DJ TI Vulnerability of wind power resources to climate change in the continental United States SO RENEWABLE ENERGY LA English DT Article C1 Tulane Univ, Dept Mech Engn, Sch Engn, New Orleans, LA 70118 USA. RP Sailor, DJ, Tulane Univ, Dept Mech Engn, Sch Engn, 400 Lindy Boggs Ctr, New Orleans, LA 70118 USA. AB Renewable energy resources will play a key role in meeting the world's energy demand over the coming decades. Unfortunately, these resources are all susceptible to variations in climate, and hence vulnerable to climate change. Recent findings in the atmospheric science literature suggest that the impacts of greenhouse gas induced warming are likely to significantly alter climate patterns in the future. In this paper we investigate the potential impacts of climate change on wind speeds and hence on wind power, across the continental US. General Circulation Model output from the Canadian Climate Center and the Hadley Center were used to provide a range of possible variations in seasonal mean wind magnitude. These projections were used to investigate the vulnerability of current and potential wind power generation regions. The models were generally consistent in predicting that the US will see reduced wind speeds of 1.0 to 3.2% in the next 50 years, and 1.4 to 4.5% over the next 100 years. In both cases the Canadian model predicted larger decreases in wind speeds. At regional scales the two models showed some similarities in early years of simulations (e.g. 2050), but diverged significantly in their predictions for 2100. Hence, there is still a great deal of uncertainty regarding how wind fields will change in the future. Nevertheless, the two models investigated here are used as possible scenarios for use in investigating regional wind power vulnerabilities, and point to the need to consider climate variability and long term climate change in citing wind power facilities. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All fights reserved. CR 1995, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995 *NAT ASS SYNTH TEA, 2000, CLIM CHANG IMP US PO BOER GJ, 2000, CLIM DYNAM, V16, P427 BROECKER WS, 1975, SCIENCE, V189, P460 CLIFF WC, 1977, PNL2436 CRESSIE NAC, 1991, STAT SPATIAL DATA ELLIOTT DL, 1979, WORKSH WIND CLIM ASH ELLIOTT DL, 1986, WIND ENERGY RESOURCE ELLIOTT DL, 1987, DOECH100934 PAC NW L JOHNS TC, 1997, CLIM DYNAM, V13, P103 MAHASENAN N, 1997, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V24, P563 MARKS D, 1990, BIOSPHERIC FEEDBACKS MELILLO JM, 1995, GLOBAL BIOGEOCHEM CY, V9, P407 ROBOCK A, 1993, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V23, P293 SAILOR DJ, 2000, RENEW ENERG, V19, P359 SMAGORINSKY J, 1983, ADV GEOPHYS, V25, P3 NR 16 TC 0 J9 RENEWABLE ENERGY BP 585 EP 598 PY 2002 PD DEC VL 27 IS 4 GA 565WK UT ISI:000176392300007 ER PT J AU Ingram, KT Roncoli, MC Kirshen, PH TI Opportunities and constraints for farmers of west Africa to use seasonal precipitation forecasts with Burkina Faso as a case study SO AGRICULTURAL SYSTEMS LA English DT Article C1 Univ Georgia, Dept Soil & Crop Sci, Griffin, GA 30223 USA. Tufts Univ, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Medford, MA 02155 USA. Tufts Univ, Fletcher Sch Law & Policy, Boston, MA 02155 USA. RP Ingram, KT, Univ Georgia, Dept Soil & Crop Sci, 1109 Expt St, Griffin, GA 30223 USA. AB Skill of seasonal precipitation forecasts for west Africa has improved to the point that forecasts may be of value to agricultural users, especially farmers. We studied agricultural production systems in three agro-ecozones of Burkina Faso to establish: (1) farmer interest in and ability to use forecasts; (2) forecast information farmers request; (3) lead-time required for greatest forecast value; (4) needs for forecast dissemination, interpretation, and application; and (5) possible strategies for using climate forecasts to improve crop production and resource management. The three agro-ecozones studied were a cotton-based system in the relatively high rainfall Sudan area of southwest Burkina Faso; a sorghum and millet based system in the low rainfall central plateau; and a cattle-based system in the very low rainfall Sahel area in the north. Potential value of forecasts to farmers differed among the three zones, with greatest apparent value to farmers of the central plateau and least apparent value to cattle herders of the Sahel. While farmers in all three agro-ecozones expressed a strong interest in receiving seasonal precipitation forecasts, they were much more interested in receiving forecasts of when the rains would start and end, and whether there would be interruptions in rains. Our results suggest that if seasonal precipitation forecasts are disseminated, they should be a part of an extension package that includes discussion of the probabilistic nature of the forecasts, potential response strategies, and risk management. Furthermore, farmers may need greater access to basic agricultural technologies, such as plows, new crop varieties, and fertilizers, before they can benefit fully from precipitation forecasts. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *ACMAD, 1998, W AFR FOR CLIM VAR P *EC INT UN, 1999, COUNTR REP 1999 2000 BLAIKIE PM, 1994, RISK NATURAL HAZARDS, V1, P1 COSTELLO CJ, 1998, AM J AGR ECON, V80, P765 DIRMEYER PA, 1996, Q J ROY METEOR SOC B, V122, P451 FLITCROFT ID, 1989, J APPL METEOROL, V28, P252 HULME M, 1992, INT J CLIMATOL, V12, P685 HULME M, 1992, INT J ENVIRON STUD, V39, P245 HULME M, 1992, INT J ENVIRON STUD, V40, P103 JACKSON IJ, 1989, CLIMATE WATER AGR TR KIRSHEN PHJ, 2000, NATURAL RESOURCES FO, V24, P185 LINTHICUM KJ, 1999, SCIENCE, V285, P397 MASON SJ, 1996, WATER SA, V22, P203 MJELDE JW, 1988, AM J AGR ECON, V70, P674 MJELDE JW, 1998, J CLIMATE, V11, P65 NICHOLSON SE, 1985, J CLIM APPL METEOROL, V24, P1388 NICHOLSON SE, 1986, FOOD SUBSAHARAN AFRI, P107 NICHOLSON SE, 1993, INT J CLIMATOL, V13, P371 OVUKA M, 2000, GEOGRAFISKA ANN, V82, P207 PALMER TN, 1994, Q J ROY METEOR SOC, V120, P755 PAYNE WA, 1990, AGRON J, V82, P813 RONCOLI MC, 2000, PRACTICING ANTHR, V22, P24 RONCOLI MC, 2001, CLIM RES, V19, P119 RONCOLI MC, 2002, SOC NATUR RESOUR, V15, P411 SIVAKUMAR MVK, 1987, INFORMATION B INT CR, V23 NR 25 TC 2 J9 AGR SYST BP 331 EP 349 PY 2002 PD DEC VL 74 IS 3 GA 619VZ UT ISI:000179499300003 ER PT J AU Victora, C Kacevas, A Fiori, H TI Soil vulnerability in Uruguay: potential effects of an increase in erosive rainfall on soil loss SO CLIMATE RESEARCH LA English DT Article C1 Minist Ganaderia Agr & Pesca, Direcc Gen Recursos Nat Renovables, Direcc Suelos & Aguas, Montevideo, Uruguay. RP Victora, C, Minist Ganaderia Agr & Pesca, Direcc Gen Recursos Nat Renovables, Direcc Suelos & Aguas, Avda Garzon 456, Montevideo, Uruguay. AB Climate change is likely to modify rainfall patterns and their interaction with the soil. This paper addresses soil vulnerability in terms of soil loss resulting from increases in the amount of rainfall. Four agricultural soils from Uruguay were studied: 2 'Vertisol Ruptico' soils (Typic Pelluderts), 1 'Brunosol Subeutrico Tipico' and 1 'Brunosol Subeutrico Luvico' (Typic Argiudolls). A field rainfall simulator was used to produce rain events of controlled intensity. Three of the soils were exposed to a constant rain of 70 mm h(-1), which is the intensity of 30 min erosive rain events with a return period of 2 yr. The remaining soil, which is characterized by a high infiltration rate, was exposed to 140 mm h(-1) rain. A 20 mm rainfall was applied on soil previously wet to saturation of the A horizon. The surface was prepared as bare soil seedbed on natural slopes (which are 2 to 5% steep, depending on the soil). The results obtained were corrected for a constant slope according to the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE). Soil losses (in kg ha(-1)) for rainwater depths (amounts) of 5, 10, 15 and 20 mm respectively were: Vertisol (Serie Tala): 25, 136, 273 and 437; Vertisol (Serie Jesus Maria): 52, 291, 1233 and 2633; Brunosol (Serie Pando): 368, 961, 1725 and 2683; Brunosol (Serie Colonia Brause): 48, 60, 115 and 224. These results are indicative of: (1) a major difference in the degree of vulnerability among soils, and (2) an increase in the soil loss rate as a result of the increase in the amount of applied rainfall. The high sensitivity of the Uruguayan soils to climate-change-induced potential variations in rainfall pattern is thus confirmed. CR ALBERTS EE, 1987, T ASAE, V30, P982 BAJRACHARYA RM, 1992, SOIL SCI SOC AM J, V56, P267 BIDEGAIN M, 1992, 1 C IB MET 5 C INT A, P39 FLANAGAN DC, 1988, T ASAE, V31, P414 FONTAL AR, 1984, AGUA AGR, P19 GARCIA F, 1984, METODOLOGIA EMPLEADA GIMENEZ D, 1992, SOIL SCI SOC AM J, V56, P234 KEREN R, 1991, SOIL SCI SOC AM J, V55, P783 KOOLHAS M, 1977, ECUACION UNIVERSAL P, V130 MCISAAC GF, 1992, T ASAE, V35, P465 MEYER LD, 1958, AGR ENG, V39, P644 MEYER LD, 1988, SOIL EROSION RES MET, P75 MEYER LD, 1989, T ASAE, V32, P639 MEYER LD, 1992, T ASAE, V35, P1199 PROFFITT APB, 1991, SOIL SCI SOC AM J, V55, P325 PUENTES R, 1983, METODOLOGIA EVALUAR ROVIRA L, 1982, EROSIVIDAD IHIVIAS Z SORRONDEGUI M, 1996, DETERMINACION INDICE NR 18 TC 0 J9 CLIMATE RES BP 41 EP 46 PY 1997 PD DEC 29 VL 9 IS 1-2 GA ZD200 UT ISI:000072661400008 ER PT J AU Falkenmark, M Lannerstad, M TI Consumptive water use to feed humanity - curing a blind spot SO HYDROLOGY AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES LA English DT Article C1 Stockholm Int Water Inst, Stockholm, Sweden. Linkoping Univ, Dept Water & Environm Studies, S-58183 Linkoping, Sweden. RP Falkenmark, M, Stockholm Int Water Inst, Stockholm, Sweden. AB Since in large parts of the world it is getting difficult to meet growing water demands by mobilising more water, the discourse has turned its focus to demand management, governance and the necessary concern for aquatic ecosystems by reserving an "environmental flow" in the river. The latter calls for attention to river depletion which may be expected in response to changes in consumptive water use by both natural and anthropogenic systems. Basically, consumptive use has three faces: runoff generation influenced by land cover changes; consumptive use of water withdrawn; and evaporation from water systems (reservoirs, canals, river based cooling). After demonstrating the vulnerability to changes in consumptive use under savanna region conditions - representative of many poverty and hunger prone developing countries subject to attention in the Millennium Development Goal activities - the paper exemplifies; 1) changes in runoff generation in response to regional scale land cover changes; 2) consumptive use in large scale irrigation systems. It goes on to analyse the implications of seeing food as a human right by estimating the additional consumptive use requirements to produce food for the next two generations. Attention is paid to remaining degrees of freedom in terms of uncommitted water beyond an environmental flow reserve and to potential food trade consequences (so-called virtual water). The paper concludes that a human-right-to-food principle will have major consequences in terms of altered consumptive water use. It will therefore be essential for humanity to address river depletion to avoid loss of resilience of the life support system. This will demand a deep-going cooperation between hydrology, ecology and water governance. CR 2000, ECONOMIST 0527, P355 2001, ECONOMIST 0526, P359 2004, AMBIO, V23, P1 *AS AGR DEV INT LT, 2000, TARB DAM REL ASP IND *IFPRI, 2002, INT FOOD POL RE I IF *MDBC, 2003, REV CAP IMPL 2001 20 *MDBC, 2004, IMP WAT REG STOR BAS *UN, 2003, WORLD POP PROSP 2002 *USDA, 2004, WORLD AGR SUPPL DEM BANGE GB, 2004, AGR OUTL C ORG CHIN BERNDES G, 2002, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V12, P253 BROWN L, 2003, WAKEUP CALL FOOD FRO BROWN L, 2003, WORLD CREATING FOOD BROWN L, 2004, CHINAS SHRINKING GRA CALDER IR, 2004, P STOCKH WAT S 2003 DYSON M, 2003, FLOW ESSENTIALS ENV FALKENMARK M, 1993, POPULATION COMPLEX R, P103 FALKENMARK M, 1995, FAO LAND WATER B, V1, P15 FALKENMARK M, 2004, BALANCING HUMANS NAT FOSTER SSD, 2003, PHILOS T ROY SOC B, V358, P1935 GLANTZ MH, 1998, CENTRAL EURASIAN WAT GLEICK PH, 2000, WORLDS WATER BIENNIA GORDON L, 2003, PHILOS T ROY SOC B, V358, P1973 GORDON L, 2004, THESIS STOCKHOLM U S KENDY E, 2003, 71 INT WAT MAN I KIJNE JW, 2003, WATER PRODUCTIVITY A LANNERSTAD M, 2002, THESIS ROYAL I TECHN LVOVICH MI, 1974, WORLD WATER RESOURCE LVOVICH MI, 1990, EARTH TRANSFORMED HU MEYBECK M, 2003, PHILOS T ROY SOC B, V358, P1935 MOENCH M, 2003, 24 FAO MOLDEN D, 2001, 49 IWMI OYAMA MD, 2003, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V30 POSTEL S, 1995, WORLD WATCH, V8, P9 POSTEL S, 1999, PILLAR SAND CAN IRRI REN ME, 1998, PHYS GEOGR, V19, P421 ROCKSTROM J, 1999, CONSERVATION ECOLOGY, V3 ROCKSTROM J, 2003, PHILOS T ROY SOC B, V358, P1997 ROSEGRAT MV, 2002, WORLD WATER FOOD 202 SAVENIJE HHG, 1996, PHYS CHEM EARTH, V20, P507 SHAH T, 2000, GLOBAL GROUNDWATER S SHIKLOMANOV IA, 2000, WATER INT, V25, P11 SMAKTHIN V, 2004, 2 COMPR ASS SECR TAIZ T, 1991, PLANT PHYSL THARME RE, 2003, RIVER RES APPL, V19, P397 VANDERZAAG P, 2003, WATER POLICY, V5, P349 YANG H, 2003, RES REPORT SERIES, V12 NR 47 TC 3 J9 HYDROL EARTH SYST SCI BP 15 EP 28 PY 2005 VL 9 IS 1-2 GA 961ZB UT ISI:000231699500002 ER PT J AU Adger, WN TI Vulnerability SO GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS LA English DT Article C1 Univ E Anglia, Sch Environm Sci, Tyndall Ctr Climate Change Res, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. RP Adger, WN, Univ E Anglia, Sch Environm Sci, Tyndall Ctr Climate Change Res, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. AB This paper reviews research traditions of vulnerability to environmental change and the challenges for present vulnerability research in integrating with the domains of resilience and adaptation. Vulnerability is the state of susceptibility to harm from exposure to stresses associated with environmental and social change and from the absence of capacity to adapt. Antecedent traditions include theories of vulnerability as entitlement failure and theories of hazard. Each of these areas has contributed to present formulations of vulnerability to environmental change as a characteristic of social-ecological systems linked to resilience. Research on vulnerability to the impacts of climate change spans all the antecedent and successor traditions. The challenges for vulnerability research are to develop robust and credible measures, to incorporate diverse methods that include perceptions of risk and vulnerability, and to incorporate governance research on the mechanisms that mediate vulnerability and promote adaptive action and resilience. These challenges are common to the domains of vulnerability, adaptation and resilience and form common ground for consilience and integration. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 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Delft Univ Technol, JM Burgers Ctr, NL-2628 CD Delft, Netherlands. RP Hunt, JCR, Univ Coll London, Dept Space & Climate Phys, Ctr Polar Observat & Modelling, Pearson Bldg,Gower St, London WC1E 6BT, England. AB This paper begins with an analysis of flooding as a natural disaster for which the solutions to the environmental, social and economic problems are essentially those of identifying and overcoming hazards and vulnerability, reducing risk and damaging consequences. Long-term solutions to flooding problems, especially in a changing climate, should be sought in the wider context of developing more sustainable social organization, economics and technology. Then, developments are described of how scientific understanding, supported by practical modelling, is leading to predictions of how human-induced changes to climatic and geological conditions are likely to influence flooding over at least the next 300 years, through their influences on evaporation, precipitation, run-off, wind storm and sea-level rise. Some of the outstanding scientific questions raised by these problems are highlighted, such as the statistical and deterministic prediction of extreme events, the understanding and modelling of mechanisms that operate on varying length- and time-scales, and the complex interactions between biological, ecological and physical problems. Some options for reducing the impact of flooding by new technology include both improved prediction and monitoring with computer models, and remote sensing, flexible and focused warning systems, and permanent and temporary flood-reduction systems. CR *ICE, 2001, LEARN LIV RIV FIN RE *IPCC, 2001, 3 IPCC *MET OFF, 2001, ANN REP *ROYAL SOC, 2000, P C DEAL NAT DIS ACH *WCED, 1987, OUR COMM FUT *WMO, 1999, P 13 WORLD MET C *WMO, 2002, WMO B, V1 BATES P, 2002, PHIL T R SOC LOND A, V360, P1545 BATTJES JA, 2002, PHILOS T ROY SOC A, V360, P1461 BINGHAM S, 2002, PHIL T R SOC LOND A, V360, P1547 CHANDLER R, 2002, PHIL T R SOC LOND A, V360, P1549 COLLIER CG, 2002, PHILOS T ROY SOC A, V360, P1345 COX DR, 2002, PHILOS T ROY SOC A, V360, P1389 CULLEN M, 2002, IN PRESS MATH OCEAN DALE M, 2002, PHIL T R SOC LOND A, V360, P1550 DARBY HC, 1956, DRAINING FENS FLEMING G, 2002, PHILOS T ROY SOC A, V360, P1527 GADIAN A, 2002, PHIL T R SOC LOND A, V360, P1551 GUPTA H, 2002, PHILOS T ROY SOC A, V360, P1363 HARRISON D, 2002, PHIL T R SOC LOND A, V360, P1552 HOLLINGWORTH A, 2002, UNPUB M SCI APPL SPA HUNT JCR, 1994, IMA B, V31, P35 HUNT JCR, 1999, PHYSICA D, V133, P270 HUNT JCR, 2001, Q J METEOROL SOC, V121, P601 HUTHNANCE J, 2000, DEALING NATURAL DISA, P135 KELMAN I, 2002, PHIL T R SOC LOND A, V360, P1553 LEE B, 1998, FORECSTS WARNINGS PR OSBORN TJ, 2002, PHILOS T ROY SOC A, V360, P1313 PALMER T, 2002, PHIL T R SOC LOND A, V360, P1556 PIERCE C, 2002, PHIL T R SOC LOND A, V360, P1557 POFF NL, 2002, PHILOS T ROY SOC A, V360, P1497 PUGH D, 2002, PHIL T R SOC LOND A, V360, P1557 ROBSON AJ, 2002, PHILOS T ROY SOC A, V360, P1327 SENIOR CA, 2002, PHILOS T ROY SOC A, V360, P1301 SMITH RL, 2000, EXTREMES INTEGRATED, P235 TAPSELL SM, 2002, PHILOS T ROY SOC A, V360, P1511 TOWNEND I, 2002, PHILOS T ROY SOC A, V360, P1477 VERWORN HR, 2002, PHILOS T ROY SOC A, V360, P1451 WHEATER HS, 2002, PHILOS T ROY SOC A, V360, P1409 YOUNG PC, 2002, PHILOS T ROY SOC A, V360, P1433 NR 40 TC 1 J9 PHIL TRANS ROY SOC LONDON A BP 1531 EP 1543 PY 2002 PD JUL 15 VL 360 IS 1796 GA 575MH UT ISI:000176949700017 ER PT J AU Pelling, M TI Measuring urban vulnerability to natural disaster risk: Benchmarks for sustainability SO OPEN HOUSE INTERNATIONAL LA English DT Article C1 Kings College London, Dept Geog, London WC2R 2LS, England. RP Pelling, M, Kings College London, Dept Geog, London WC2R 2LS, England. AB The Millennium Declaration and the Hyogo Framework for Action point towards the need for methods to identify urban vulnerability to disaster risk as a pre-cursor for the development of benchmarks with which to track policy progress for urban sustainability and risk reduction. This paper responds to this call by assessing the state of the oil in urban vulnerability and risk assessment tools. It presents a review of the conceptual frameworks, methodologies and comparative advantages of ten tools. These ore categorised into deductive and inductive approaches, with inductive approaches in turn separated into those that use social-survey and participatory methods. The tools examined vary in the focus of their interests between those concerned with the vulnerability of places (cities or buildings) and people (either as pre-defined vulnerable social groups or identified through household livelihood sustainability). The paper calls for a deeper conversation between the emerging community of practitioners working on urban disaster risk management and the existing urban development community. For example, disasters ore typically defined as exceptionally large, single events, which odds to analytical clarity, but misses the cumulative impact of multiple small, local events on household sustainability and urban infrastructure, ultimately distorting planning guidance. There is also a need for natural hazard specific vulnerability assessment tools to be interpreted alongside, or to incorporate social, economic and political sources of danger to livelihoods and human health. For forward looking policy relevance, tools ore also needed that con assess adoptive or coping capacity. This is essential for the building of a holistic approach to urban risk management. An approach that coherently tackles the multiple hazards and vulnerabilities faced by urban dwellers, and seeks to avoid the shining of risk burdens between populations and the movement of people from one kind of threat to another. CR *CARE, 2002, HOUS LIV SEC ASS TOO *GEOHAZARDS INT, 2004, FIN REP GLOB EARTHQ *UNDP, 2003, HUM DEV REP 2003 *ZNVAC, 2003, ZIMB URB AR FOOD SEC ALDRICH BC, 1995, HOUSING URBAN POOR P BOLIN C, 2003, DISASTER RISK MANAGE CARDONA OD, 2005, HOLISTIC APPROACH UR, V1 CHAMBERS R, 1989, IDS B, V20, P1 MITCHELL JK, 2004, RECONCEVING REOCVERY, P47 MOSER CON, 1998, WORLD DEV, V26, P1 MUNICH RE, 2004, MEGACITIES MEGARISKS PELLING M, 1997, ENVIRON URBAN, V9, P203 PELLING M, 2003, VULNERABILITY CITIES PELLING M, 2005, VISIONS RISK REV INT SATTERTHWAITE D, 2003, ENVIRON URBAN, V15, P181 SCHUTTE S, 2004, URBAN VULNERABILITY WINOGRAD M, 2005, NATURAL DISASTERS HO YODMANI S, AS PAC FOR POV ORG A NR 18 TC 0 J9 OPEN HOUSE INT BP 125 EP 132 PY 2006 PD MAR VL 31 IS 1 GA 103LC UT ISI:000241885700016 ER PT J AU Papadopoulos, GA Caputo, R McAdoo, B Pavlides, S Karastathis, V Fokaefs, A Orfanogiannaki, K Valkaniotis, S TI The large tsunami of 26 December 2004: Field observations and eyewitnesses accounts from Sri Lanka, Maldives Is. and Thailand SO EARTH PLANETS AND SPACE LA English DT Article C1 Natl Observ Athens, Inst Geodynam, Athens 11810, Greece. Univ Basilicata, Dept Struct Geol, I-85100 Potenza, Italy. ETH Zentrum, Inst Geol, CH-8092 Zurich, Switzerland. Vassar Coll, Dept Geol & Geog, Poughkeepsie, NY 12604 USA. Aristotle Univ Thessaloniki, Dept Geol, GR-54006 Thessaloniki, Greece. RP Papadopoulos, GA, Natl Observ Athens, Inst Geodynam, Athens 11810, Greece. AB Post-event field surveys were conducted and measurements were taken in Sri Lanka and Maldives about two weeks after the catastrophic Indian Ocean tsunami of 26 December 2004. The measurements taken were cross-checked after interviewing with local people. In the southwest, south and east coastal zones of Sri Lanka maximum water levels ranging from h = 3 m to h = 11 m a.m.s.l. were estimated. The highest values observed were in the south of the island: Galle h similar to 10 m, Hambantota h similar to 11 m. Maximum inundation of d similar to 2 km was observed in Hambantota. The heavy destruction and thousands of victims caused in coastal communities, buildings and infrastructure, like railways and bridges, is attributed not only to physical parameters, like the strength of the tsunami hydrodynamic flow, coastal geomorphology and the wave erosional action in soil, but also to anthropogenic factors including the increased vulnerability of the non-RC buildings and the high population density. Local people usually described the tsunami as a series of three main waves. The leading wave phase was only a silent sea level rise of h <= 1.5 m and d <= 150 m, while the second wave was the strongest one. The first two waves occurred between 09:00 and 09:30 local time, depending on the locality. It is well documented that near Galle, southern part, the strong wave arrived at 09:25:30. In the west coast the third wave was a late arrival which possibly represents reflection phases. In Maldives, three waves were also reported to arrive between 09:00 and 09:30 local time. Maximum water level was only h similar to 3 m in Laamu Atoll, which is interpreted by the wave amplitude damping by the coral reef to the east of the island complex as well as to that the tsunami did not arrived at high tide time. Damage was observed in several islands of Maldives but this was minimal as compared to the heavy destruction observed in Sri Lanka. About 25 Greek eyewitnesses, who happened to experience the tsunami attack in Padong and Blue Lagoon Port of Phuket island as well as in Maya Bay, Phi-Phi islands, Thailand, were interviewed on the basis of a standard questionnaire. The first sea motion was a retreat of at least 100 m. Then, two main waves arrived, the first being the strong one occurring at about 09:55-10:05 local time, with h similar to 6 in in Padong causing significant destruction and human victims. The collected information clearly indicates that the tsunami propagated as the leading crest wave to the west side, e.g. in Sri Lanka and Maldives, and as the leading trough wave to the east, e.g. in Thailand. CR *IOC, 1998, POST TSUNAMI SURVEY FUJIMA K, 2002, PRELIMARY REPORT SUR LIU PLF, 2005, SCIENCE, V308, P1595 PAPADOPOULOS GA, 2005, INDIAN CATASTROPHIC PAPADOPOULOS GA, 2005, P 22 IUGG TSUN S CHA NR 5 TC 1 J9 EARTH PLANETS AND SPACE BP 233 EP 241 PY 2006 VL 58 IS 2 GA 018MZ UT ISI:000235769800018 ER PT J AU King, D TI Uses and limitations of socioeconomic indicators of community vulnerability to natural hazards: Data and disasters in northern Australia SO NATURAL HAZARDS LA English DT Article C1 James Cook Univ N Queensland, Ctr Disaster Studies, Townsville, N Qld, Australia. James Cook Univ N Queensland, Ctr Disaster Studies, Cairns, N Qld, Egypt. RP King, D, James Cook Univ N Queensland, Ctr Disaster Studies, Townsville, N Qld, Australia. AB Advances in computer technology have made very large databases easily accessible to users and managers. The census and land databases are of enormous use to hazard managers and planners. An extensive literature has identified groups of social, economic and demographic indicators that may be combined with physical and land data to predict and categorise levels of community vulnerability. Impact scenario mapping can be very precise and impressive in its detail, but a range of constraints, such as ageing of the data, the arbitrary nature of boundaries, problems of weighting indicators, and categorisation of vulnerability, impose limitations on the use of socioeconomic indicators to predict community vulnerability. CR BERRY L, 1996, COMMUNITY VULNERABIL BLAIKIE PM, 1994, RISK NATURAL HAZARDS, V1, P1 BUCKLE P, 1999, AUSTR J EMERGENCY MA, V13, P21 GOUDIE G, 1999, AUSTR J EMERGENCY MA, V13, P54 GRANGER K, 1995, AURISA SIRC 95 7 C S GRANGER K, 1999, 1 AGSO AUSTR GEOL SU KEYS C, 1991, MACEDON DIGEST, V6, P13 MELICK R, 1996, RISK ASSESSMENT CAIR SMITH CR, 1994, PALAIOS, V9, P3 YOUNG E, 1998, AUSTR J EMERGENCY MA, V13, P14 NR 10 TC 1 J9 NATURAL HAZARDS BP 147 EP 156 PY 2001 VL 24 IS 2 GA 472HD UT ISI:000170977200003 ER PT J AU Sanchez-Azofeifa, GA Rivard, B Calvo, J Moorthy, I TI Dynamics of tropical deforestation around national parks: Remote sensing of forest change on the Osa Peninsula of Costa Rica SO MOUNTAIN RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT LA English DT Article C1 Univ Alberta, Dept Earth & Atmospher Sci, Edmonton, AB T6G 2E3, Canada. Trop Sci Ctr, San Jose, Costa Rica. RP Sanchez-Azofeifa, GA, Univ Alberta, Dept Earth & Atmospher Sci, Edmonton, AB T6G 2E3, Canada. AB National parks and biological reserves play an important role in counteracting the effects of tropical deforestation in mountainous environments, a leading cause of biodiversity loss worldwide, Unfortunately, information is sparse on the nature, dynamics, and spatial dimension of land use and land cover change processes that contribute to park vulnerability. This article assesses the current state of landscape fragmentation and structure on the Osa Peninsula, Costa Rica, using Landsat Multispectral Scanner and Thematic Mapper satellite scenes between 19 79 and 1997. The Osa Peninsula hosts the Corcovado National Park, which contains the only protected region of Tropical Wet forest on the Pacific slopes of Mesoamerica, including a significant number of species that are endemic. threatened, or new to science. The level of isolation of the Corcovado National Park is based on the degree of ecosystem degradation produced by frontal deforestation processes. Our results indicate that the proportion of the Osa Peninsula covered by forest declined from 97% in 1979 to 9196 in 1987 and to 89% by 1997. Total forest area declined from 977 km(2) in 1979 to 896 km(2) by 1997. These results pose significant questions regarding the effectiveness of current conservation efforts in this mountain biodiversity-rich area of Mesoamerica. 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UNIV BERGEN,BERGEN,NORWAY. MUSGRAVE INST,LONDON,ENGLAND. AB The primary concern of this paper is the responsiveness or micro-level actors - mountain farmers, for instance - and the argument that responsiveness is shaped by the various forms of social solidarity of which those actors are the components. Since forms of social solidarity are plural - fourfold, it is argued - policy approaches that are based on the idea that people are unresponsive, or on the idea that they are all responsive in the same way, or even on the idea that they are responsive in two ways (the familiar markets and hierarchies) are not going to be effective. Plural responsiveness requires a very different approach: one that seeks to harness this plurality, not reduce it. The contradictory certainties that are generated by the different solidarities then cease to be obstacles to rational decision-making, and become guideposts towards ways of enhancing security (especially environmental security), and the policy focus shifts away from optimization and economic efficiency towards negotiation and the nurturing of trust among solidarities. 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FAO, Forest Conservat Res & Educ Serv, I-00100 Rome, Italy. Univ Catolica Norte, Inst Invest Arqueolog & Museu, San Pedro de Atacama, Chile. Univ Bern, Hist Inst, Dept Econ Social & Environm Hist, Unitobler, CH-3000 Bern, Switzerland. RP Messerli, B, Univ Bern, Inst Geog, Hallerstr 12, CH-3012 Bern, Switzerland. AB To what extent is it realistic and useful to view human history as a sequence of changes from highly vulnerable societies of hunters and gatherers through periods with less vulnerable, well buffered and highly productive agrarian-urban societies to a world with regions of extreme overpopulation and overuse of life support systems, so that vulnerability to climatic-environmental changes and extreme events is again increasing? This question cannot be fully answered in our present state of knowledge, but at least we can try to illustrate, with three case studies from different continents, time periods and ecosystems, some fundamental changes in the relationship between natural processes and human activities that occur, as we pass from a nature-dominated to a human dominated environment. 1. Early-mid Holocene: Nature dominated environment - human adaptation, mitigation, and migration. In the central Andes, the Holocene climate changed from humid (10,800-8000 BP) to extreme arid (8000-3600 BP) conditions. Over the same period, prehistoric hunting communities adopted a more sedentary pattern of resource use by settling close to the few perennial water bodies, where they began the process of domesticating camelids around 5000 BP and irrigation from about 3100 BP. 2. Historical period: An agrarian society in transition from an "enduring" to an innovative human response. Detailed documentary evidence from Western Europe may be used to reconstruct quite precisely the impacts of climatic variations on agrarian societies. The period considered spans a major transition from an apparently passive response to the vagaries of the environment during the 16th century to an active and innovative attitude from the onset of the agrarian revolution in the late 18th century through to the present day. The associated changes in technology and in agricultural practices helped to create a society better able to survive the impact of climatic extremes. 3. The present day: A human dominated environment with increasing vulnerability of societies and economies to extreme events and natural variability. The third example, dealing with the history and impact of floods in Bangladesh, shows the increasing vulnerability of an over-exploited and human-dominated ecosystem. Measurements exist for a short time only (decades), historical data allow a prolongation of the record into the last century, and paleo-research provides the long-term record of processes operating over millennia. The long-term paleo-perspective is essential for a better understanding of future potential impacts on an increasingly human-dominated environment. Understanding today's global change processes calls for several new perspectives and synergisms: the integration of biophysically oriented climate change research with research about the increasingly dominant processes of human forcing, a focus on overexploited or limited natural resources and on vulnerable and critical regions, fuller use of our understanding of variability on a range of different timescales:"The present without a past has no future". (C) 1999 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. 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SO CANADIAN JOURNAL OF FOREST RESEARCH-REVUE CANADIENNE DE RECHERCHE FORESTIERE LA English DT Review C1 Univ Quebec, Dept Sci Biol, Grp Rech Ecol Forestiere Interuniv, Montreal, PQ H3C 3P8, Canada. McGill Univ, Dept Geog, Montreal, PQ H3A 2K6, Canada. McGill Univ, McGill Sch Environm, Montreal, PQ H3A 2K6, Canada. Univ Quebec, Nat Sci & Engn Res Council, Ind Chair Sustainable Forest Management, Rouyn Noranda, PQ J9X 5E4, Canada. Canadian Forest Serv, Great Lakes Forestry Ctr, Sault Ste Marie, ON P6A 2E5, Canada. RP Drever, CR, Univ Quebec, Dept Sci Biol, Grp Rech Ecol Forestiere Interuniv, CP 8888,Succursale Ctr Ville, Montreal, PQ H3C 3P8, Canada. AB Given the increasingly global stresses on forests, many ecologists argue that managers must maintain ecological resilience: the capacity of ecosystems to absorb disturbances without undergoing fundamental change. In this review we ask: Can the emerging paradigm of natural-disturbance-based management (NDBM) maintain ecological resilience in managed forests? Applying resilience theory requires careful articulation of the ecosystem state under consideration, the disturbances and stresses that affect the persistence of possible alternative states, and the spatial and temporal scales of management relevance. Implementing NDBM while maintaining resilience means recognizing that (i) biodiversity is important for long-term ecosystem persistence, (ii) natural disturbances play a critical role as a generator of structural and compositional heterogeneity at multiple scales, and (iii) traditional management tends to produce forests more homogeneous than those disturbed naturally and increases the likelihood of unexpected catastrophic change by constraining variation of key environmental processes. 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Assessing the legal, organizational, and policy challenges for the national security state SO PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION REVIEW LA English DT Article C1 Univ Baltimore, Sch Publ Affairs, Baltimore, MD 21201 USA. RP Durant, RF, Payap Univ, Chiang Mai, Thailand. AB What are the implications of the war on terrorism for the progress made to date and the likely future of environmental security efforts in the national security state? To put the evolving post-September 11th environmental security challenge facing the U.S. military in perspective, this article begins with a synopsis of the doctrinal, tactical, operational, and regulatory dilemmas faced by the U.S. military in the post-Cold War era. Next, the article reviews how and why the 1990s bequeathed a set of misaligned administrative systems that make existing and future progress in balancing national security with environmental and natural resources protection extremely vulnerable to shifts in the political economy surrounding this issue in the post-September 11th era. The article concludes with a review of how September 11th has affected the patterns of politics surrounding this issue since those tragic events. Despite recent increases in the defense budget, this analysis suggests that conflict over this issue will continue, rendering structural realignment a daunting challenge and further complicating the integration of national security and environmental and natural resources responsibilities in the post-September 11th era. CR *IWP, 1996, DEFENSE ENV ALE 0110, P15 *IWP, 1997, DEFENSE ENV AL 0923, P4 *IWP, 1997, DEFENSE ENV ALE 0812, P5 *IWP, 1998, DEFENSE ENV ALE 0421, P14 *IWP, 1998, DEFENSE ENV ALE 0421, P4 *IWP, 1998, DEFENSE ENV ALE 1215, P9 *IWP, 2000, DEFENSE ENV ALE 0307, P4 *IWP, 2000, DEFENSE ENV ALE 0307, P6 *IWP, 2000, DEFENSE ENV ALE 0404, P22 *IWP, 2000, DEFENSE ENV ALE 0509, P16 *IWP, 2001, DEFENSE ENV ALE 0116, P3 *IWP, 2001, DEFENSE ENV ALE 0116, P3 *IWP, 2001, DEFENSE ENV ALE 0116, P3 *IWP, 2001, DEFENSE ENV ALE 0116, P3 *IWP, 2001, DEFENSE ENV ALE 0130, P8 *IWP, 2001, DEFENSE ENV ALE 0227, P19 *IWP, 2001, DEFENSE ENV ALE 0508, P5 *IWP, 2001, DEFENSE ENV ALE 0508, P5 *IWP, 2001, DEFENSE ENV ALE 0619, P12 *IWP, 2001, DEFENSE ENV ALE 0619, P9 *IWP, 2001, DEFENSE ENV ALE 0814, P6 *IWP, 2001, DEFENSE ENV ALE 0828, P16 *IWP, 2001, DEFENSE ENV ALE 1218, P4 *IWP, 2002, DEFENSE ENV ALE 0226, P4 *IWP, 2002, DEFENSE ENV ALE 0326, P10 *IWP, 2002, DEFENSE ENV ALE 0328 *IWP, 2002, DEFENSE ENV ALE 0702, P3 *IWP, 2002, DEFENSE ENV ALE 0702, P3 *IWP, 2002, DEFENSE ENV ALE 0702, P3 *IWP, 2002, DEFENSE ENV ALE 0702, P3 *IWP, 2002, DEFENSE ENV ALE 0702, P3 *US MAR CORPS, 1994, WARF US MAR CORPS BREEN B, 1985, ENV L REP, V15, P10326 CARSTENS DH, 2001, PARAMETERS US ARMY W, V31, P99 GALSTON W, 2002, LIBERAL PLURALISM IM GANSLER J, 1995, DEFENSE CONVERSION GOLDSTONE J, 2001, ENV SCARCITY VIOLENT GRAHAM B, 2000, PENTAGON WARNS CUTTI HUNTINGTON SP, 1957, SOLDIER STATE THEORY JAFFE G, 2002, WALL STREET J 0422, A1 JAFFE G, 2002, WALL STREET J 0422, A8 KAMENSKY J, 2002, LEVERS ALIGNMENT KAPLAN RD, 2001, NATL INTEREST, V66, P37 KEEGAN J, 1993, HIST WARFARE MAGEE S, 1993, FEDERAL FACILITIES E, V4, P109 MOSKOS CC, 2000, POSTMODERN MILITARY OWENS B, 2000, LIFTING FOG WAR PIPES D, 2001, NATL INTEREST, V66, P14 SCHULMAN S, 1992, THREAT HOME CONFRONT SCHWARTZ SI, 1998, ATOMIC AUDIT SEELYE K, 2002, NY TIMES 0330 TUCKER JB, 1999, FORUM SUM, P32 NR 52 TC 0 J9 PUBLIC ADMIN REV BP 115 EP 123 PY 2002 PD SEP VL 62 GA 586GU UT ISI:000177576900019 ER PT J AU Jenerette, GD Harlan, SL Brazel, A Jones, N Larsen, L Stefanov, WL TI Regional relationships between surface temperature, vegetation, and human settlement in a rapidly urbanizing ecosystem SO LANDSCAPE ECOLOGY LA English DT Article C1 Ohio State Univ, Sch Nat Resources, Columbus, OH 43201 USA. Arizona State Univ, Sch Life Sci, Tempe, AZ 85287 USA. Arizona State Univ, Sch Human Evolut & Social Change, Tempe, AZ 85287 USA. Arizona State Univ, Sch Geog Sci, Tempe, AZ 85287 USA. Arizona State Univ, Coll Architecture & Environm Design, Tempe, AZ 85287 USA. Univ Michigan, Taubman Coll Architecture & Urban Planning, Ann Arbor, MI 48109 USA. Lyndon B Johnson Space Ctr, Image Sci & Anal Lab, Houston, TX 77059 USA. Univ Arizona, Ecol & Evolutionary Biol Dept, Tucson, AZ 85721 USA. RP Jenerette, GD, Ohio State Univ, Sch Nat Resources, 2021 Coffey Rd, Columbus, OH 43201 USA. AB Regional climate change induced by rapid urbanization is responsible for and may result from changes in coupled human-ecological systems. Specifically, the distribution of urban vegetation may be an important intermediary between patterns of human settlement and regional climate spatial variability. To test this hypothesis we identified the relationships between surface temperature, one component of regional climate, vegetation, and human settlement patterns in the Phoenix, AZ, USA region. Combining satellite-derived surface temperature and vegetation data from an early summer day with US Census and topographic data, we found substantial surface temperature differences within the city that correlate primarily with an index of vegetation cover. Furthermore, both of these patterns vary systematically with the social characteristics of neighborhoods through the region. Overall, every $10,000 increase in neighborhood annual median household income was associated with a 0.28 degrees C decrease in surface temperature on an early summer day in Phoenix. Temperature variation within a neighborhood was negatively related to population density. A multivariate model generated using path analysis supports our hypothesis that social impacts on surface temperature occur primarily through modifications of vegetation cover. Higher income neighborhoods were associated with increased vegetation cover and higher density neighborhoods were associated with decreased vegetation variability. These results suggest that settlement patterns in the central Arizona region influence regional climate through multiple pathways that are heterogeneously distributed throughout the city. 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Univ Cape Town, Dept Bot, Inst Plant Conservat, ZA-7701 Rondebosch, South Africa. RP Le Maitre, DC, CSIR, POB 320, ZA-7599 Stellenbosch, South Africa. AB Invasive alien plants pose a substantial threat to the rich biodiversity of South Africa, and to the sustained delivery of a wide range of ecosystem services. Biological invasions are driven by human activities and mediated by culturally shaped values and ethics. This paper explores the human dimensions of alien plant invasions in South Africa. We consider four primary forces, those which directly influence the likelihood and rate of invasion - arrival of propagules; changes in disturbance regimes; changes in the availability of limiting factors; and fragmentation of the landscape - and the roles of 22 secondary driving forces in shaping the outcomes of the four primary driving forces. Human societies and their dynamics and activities are an integral part of each of the secondary driving forces. A map of the interactions between and among the primary and secondary driving forces shows how they are interlinked and influence each other-either positively or negatively, or switching between the two. There are two key points for intervention: prevention of the introduction of propagules of potentially invasive species and developing collaborative initiatives with enterprises that rely largely on alien species (for example, horticulture, agriculture and forestry, including community forestry) to minimize the introduction and use of potentially invasive species. An example of the first type of intervention would be to implement more effective inspection systems at international border and customs posts. This type of intervention can only be effective if those who are directly affected-whether businessmen, tourists or migrants - understand the requirement for these measures, and collaborate. The need to build public awareness of the critical importance of the human dimension of invasions emerges as a key theme from this analysis and is the basis for better-informed decisions, more effective control programmes and a reduction of further invasions. 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V53 WHITESIDE A, 2000, AIDS CHALLENGE S AFR WILKINSON L, 1995, WIRED SCENARIOS, P74 WITTENBERG R, 2001, INVASIVE ALIEN SPECI WYNBERG R, 2002, S AFR J SCI, V98, P233 ZIMMERMANN HG, 2004, S AFR J SCI, V100, P34 NR 129 TC 1 J9 S AFR J SCI BP 103 EP 112 PY 2004 PD JAN-FEB VL 100 IS 1 GA 816OX UT ISI:000221120300023 ER PT J AU Yohe, GW Jacobsen, M Gapotchenko, T TI Spanning "not-implausible" futures to assess relative vulnerability to climate change and climate variability SO GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS LA English DT Article C1 Wesleyan Univ, Dept Econ, Middletown, CT 06459 USA. Carnegie Mellon Univ, Ctr Integrated Study Human Dimens Global Change, Pittsburgh, PA 15213 USA. RP Yohe, GW, Wesleyan Univ, Dept Econ, Middletown, CT 06459 USA. CR *IPCC CZMS, 1992, GLOB CLIM CHANG RIS DOWLATABADI H, 1998, CLIMATE CHANGE RISK EAKIN H, 1999, CLIMATIC CHANGE HARASAWA H, 1994, IPCC TECHNICAL GUIDE SCHIMMELPFENNIG D, 1998, GLOBAL ENV CHANGE AG SCHLESINGER M, 1998, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V38, P437 SCHLESINGER M, 1999, CLIMATIC CHANGE WEST J, 1998, THESIS CARNEGIEMELLO YOHE GW, 1989, OCEAN SHORELINE MANA, V15, P233 YOHE GW, 1996, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V32, P387 YOHE GW, 1997, P WORKSH CLIM CHANG NR 11 TC 4 J9 GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANGE BP 233 EP 249 PY 1999 PD OCT VL 9 IS 3 GA 230PV UT ISI:000082260300006 ER PT J AU MILETI, DS TI HUMAN ADJUSTMENT TO THE RISK OF ENVIRONMENTAL EXTREMES SO SOCIOLOGY AND SOCIAL RESEARCH LA English DT Review RP MILETI, DS, COLORADO STATE UNIV,FT COLLINS,CO 80521. 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AB Famine prevention is possible but requires, among other things, a better theoretical basis, building on comparative, interdisciplinary and historical research. Key aspects of that task concern, first, the relationship between starvation, disease and death. The historical record suggests that large scale famine mortality is often a direct consequence not so much of starvation as of disease, triggered by a collapse of everyday coping. (The evidence for this Africa is not clear however.) A second theme is the complexity of famine causes and responses. Entitlement erosion is a key process, but so are production declines and asset management. Reduced consumption, rather than disposing of assets vital for recovery, is a well-documented and important reaction. Local collective coping, especially through redistribution of food, is a third theme. Such customary safety nets provided a minimum of food security to vulnerable households. In this perspective, the central famine process should be seen as economic and social breakdown and the collapse of organized coping, becoming in tum the trigger to increased vulnerability to disease. As a result mainly of the extension of the market and of state power, and the growth of population, collective coping strategies have become increasingly unviable. In the 'Indian' model, they have been successfully replaced in part by government-sponsored anti-famine policies and safety nets. In the 'African' model this has not happened: customary collective coping, often severely undermined, remains in places an important resort of vulnerable households and groups, and government has been unable to provide a viable alternative. Some implications of this for anti-famine policies are briefly discussed. CR ADAMS A, 1992, THESIS U LONDON BONFIGLIOLI AM, 1988, DUDAL HIST FAMILLE H CAMPBELL DJ, 1982, SOC SCI MED, V16, P2117 CHEN MA, 1991, COPING SEASONALITY D CISSOKO SM, 1968, B I FONDAMENTAL AF B, V30, P806 DEWAAL A, 1989, FAMINE KILLS DARFUR DEWAAL A, 1990, DEV CHANGE, V21, P469 DREZE J, 1989, HUNGER PUBLIC ACTION DYSON T, 1991, POP STUD-J DEMOG, V45, P279 EPSTEIN S, 1970, THEMES EC ANTHR, P229 EVANSPRITCHARD EE, 1951, KINSHIP MARRIAGE NUE FIRTH R, 1959, SOCIAL CHANGE TIKOPI GASPER D, 1993, 146 I SOC STUD WORK JODHA NS, 1975, EC POLITICAL WEEKLY, V10 JODHA NS, 1988, ECON POLIT WEEKLY, P2421 KAUTILYA, 1992, ARTHASHASTRA LIVIBACCI M, 1991, POPULATION NUTRITION MAUSS M, 1970, GIFT FORMS FUNCTIONS PLATTEAU JP, 1991, SOCIAL SECURITY DEV, P112 POTTIER J, 1988, MIGRANTS NO MORE SET SAHLINS M, 1968, RELEVANCE MODELS SOC, P139 SCOTT JC, 1976, MORAL EC PEASANT SEN AK, 1981, POVERTY FAMINES ESSA, V1, P1 SWIFT J, 1989, IDS B, V20, P8 SWIFT JJ, 1991, PARTICIPATORY PASTOR TORRY WI, 1987, DROUGHT HUNGER AFRIC, P323 TURTON D, 1977, HUMAN ECOLOGY TROPIC WATTS MJ, 1983, SILENT VIOLENCE FOOD WHITCOMBE E, UNPUB FAMINE MORALIT WRIGLEY EA, 1989, POPULATION HIST NR 30 TC 8 J9 IDS BULL-INST DEVELOP STUD BP 1 EP 16 PY 1993 PD OCT VL 24 IS 4 GA LZ945 UT ISI:A1993LZ94500001 ER PT J AU Mondal, MS Wasimi, SA TI Evaluation of risk-related performance in water management for the Ganges Delta of Bangladesh SO JOURNAL OF WATER RESOURCES PLANNING AND MANAGEMENT-ASCE LA English DT Article C1 Bangladesh Univ Engn & Technol, Inst Water & Flood Management, Dhaka 1000, Bangladesh. Univ Cent Queensland, Fac Business & Informat, Rockhampton, Qld 4072, Australia. RP Mondal, MS, Bangladesh Univ Engn & Technol, Inst Water & Flood Management, Dhaka 1000, Bangladesh. AB A risk-based evaluation is performed in the meeting of future water demands in the Ganges Delta of Bangladesh (GDB). This evaluation is based on reliability, resiliency, and vulnerability performance indicators, which have been newly defined to capture the time varying characteristics of the Ganges River system. The analysis includes the impacts of climate change on both demands and resources, and the generation of synthetic flows of the Ganges River. The values of the indicators reveal that the expected demand of the GDB up to the year 2050 can be supplied with the proposed Ganges Barrage under the "no change" and "most likely" climatic scenarios, provided that the groundwater remains usable. However, if an additional upstream diversion from the transboundary rivers takes place in India and/or a "possible adverse" change in climate occurs, the consequences may be devastating. CR *WARPO, 2001, GANGES BARRAGE PRE F, V2 BAYAZIT M, 1990, WATER RESOUR RES, V26, P713 BOX GEP, 1994, TIME SERIES ANAL FOR BURN DH, 1991, CAN J CIVIL ENG, V18, P36 COLOMBI JS, 1999, 7 WAT RES PLANN ORG FIERING MB, 1982, WATER RESOUR RES, V18, P27 FIERING MB, 1982, WATER RESOUR RES, V18, P33 HASHIMOTO T, 1982, WATER RESOUR RES, V18, P14 HIPEL KW, 1994, TIME SERIES MODELING KJELDSEN TR, 2004, HYDROLOG SCI J, V49, P755 KLEMES V, 1977, WATER RESOUR RES, V13, P837 MONDAL MS, 2005, THESIS CENTRAL QUEEN MOY WS, 1986, WATER RESOUR RES, V22, P489 SALAS JD, 1979, J HYDROL, V44, P1 SIMONOVIC SP, 1992, J HYDROL, V131, P269 STEDINGER JR, 1982, WATER RES R, V18, P909 TICKLE K, 1997, THESIS GRIFFITH U BR VALENCIA D, 1973, WATER RES R, V9, P580 WEERATENE JR, 1986, CANADIAN J CIVIL ENG, V13, P203 NR 19 TC 0 J9 J WATER RESOUR PLAN MAN-ASCE BP 179 EP 187 PY 2007 PD MAR-APR VL 133 IS 2 GA 139CF UT ISI:000244409000010 ER PT J AU Dolling, OR Varas, EA TI Decision support model for operation of multi-purpose water resources systems SO JOURNAL OF HYDRAULIC RESEARCH LA English DT Article C1 Pontificia Univ Catolica Chile, Sch Engn, Santiago, Chile. Univ Nacl San Juan, Dept Hydraul, San Juan, Argentina. RP Dolling, OR, Pontificia Univ Catolica Chile, Sch Engn, Santiago, Chile. AB Models to search for optimal operation rules of complex water resources systems generally represent the physical system in a fixed static form, being difficult to incorporate changes in water offer, water demand and system structure. This paper presents a decision support procedure that integrates continuous simulation, artificial neural networks, and optimization to produce decision rules in watershed management for multiple purpose complex water resources systems. The system uses physical indexes to evaluate the compliance of targets for the different purposes of the system, such as occurrence of failure (frequency), resilience (duration and capacity of recovery of a state of failure) and vulnerability (severity or magnitude of the failure). It also introduces a global indicator of the behavior of the system, which combines, with user selected weights, the previous indexes in a measure of global effectiveness. The methodology was applied to the San Juan River Basin, Argentina, and results show conclusively the usefulness of simulation in the study of alternatives of water resources systems with multiple uses and the feasibility of using neural networks to encapsulate the behavior of simulation models. The encapsulated model and parametric operation rules can be included in a dynamic optimization process to search for optimal operation policies. CR 2000, EXTEND V1 0 AZEVEDO LGT, 2000, J WATER RESOUR PLANN, V126, P85 BELAINEH G, 1999, J WATER RES PL-ASCE, V125, P154 CAI XM, 2002, WATER RESOUR RES, V38 DIBIKE YB, 1999, J HYDRAUL RES, V37, P147 DOLLING O, 2000, INGENIERIA HIDRAULIC, P5 DOLLING O, 2001, THESIS PONTIFICIA U DOLLING OR, 2001, J HYDRAUL RES, V40, P547 FRENCH MN, 1992, J HYDROL, V137, P1 GEREZ V, 1988, ENFOQUE SISTEMAS, V1 HATTA S, 1996, J HYDROSCI HYDRAUL E, V14, P57 HSU KL, 1995, WATER RESOUR RES, V31, P2517 KARUNANITHI N, 1994, J COMP CIV ENG ASCE, V8, P210 LASDON LS, 1978, ACM T MATH SOFTWARE, V4, P34 LASDON LS, 1979, DESIGN IMPLEMENTATIO LOUCKS DP, 1982, OPERATION MULTIPLE R LUND JR, 1999, J WATER RES PL-ASCE, V125, P143 MORELSEYTOUX HJ, 1999, J WATER RES PL-ASCE, V125, P126 NALBANTIS I, 1997, WATER RESOUR RES, V33, P2165 RAMAN H, 1995, HYDROLOG SCI J, V40, P145 RUMELHART DE, 1994, COMMUN ACM, V37, P87 SANCHEZQUISPE S, 1999, THESIS U POLITECNICA ZEALAND CM, 1999, J HYDROL, V214, P32 ZELL A, 1995, MANUAL STUTTGART NEU ZHU ML, 1994, J HYDROSCIENCE HYDRA, V12, P131 NR 25 TC 0 J9 J HYDRAUL RES BP 115 EP 124 PY 2005 VL 43 IS 2 GA 936IP UT ISI:000229849000003 ER PT J AU GOKLANY, IM TI STRATEGIES TO ENHANCE ADAPTABILITY - TECHNOLOGICAL-CHANGE, SUSTAINABLE GROWTH AND FREE-TRADE SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Article RP GOKLANY, IM, US DEPT INTERIOR,OFF POLICY ANAL,1849 C ST NW,WASHINGTON,DC 20240. AB This article proposes three broad interrelated strategies - stimulating technological change, sustainable economic growth and free, unsubsidized trade - to enhance future adaptability to global (including climate) change and some principles for developing the social, legal and economic frameworks necessary to effect these strategies. The proposals are based upon an examination of the present and potential contributions of the strategies to sustainability, adaptability, and mitigation (limitation) of environmental changes, and the various synergies between these strategies. The strategies and principles would meet criteria which recognize that climate change is inevitable, that any climate change will occur in the context of already-occurring global change due to other agents of change, and that reducing vulnerability to these other changes will increase the future adaptability to climate change. Specifically, the strategies should: (a) increase the ability to feed, clothe and shelter the world's expanding population regardless of the agent of change; (b) reduce vulnerability of forests, habitats and biological diversity to demographic and other environmental stresses; (c) be compatible with mitigation measures; (d) be independent of results from more detailed and accurate site-specific impacts assessments which will be unavailable for several years; (e) be implementable today; and (f) have clear benefits now and in the future. CR 1950, STATISTICAL ABSTRACT 1975, HIST STATISTICS US C 1984, 1984 WORLD BANK WORL 1987, WORLD RESOURCES 1987 1990, 20TH CEQ COUNC ENV Q 1990, IPCC RESPONSE STRATE 1990, OVERALL SOCIOECONOMI, P79 1990, STATISTICAL ABSTRACT, P20 1991, 1991 COUNTRY TABLES 1991, WORLD SOIL RESOURCES 1992, 1992 WORLD BANK WORL 1992, GLOBAL EC PROSPECTS 1992, OUR HLTH OUR PLANET 1992, POLICY IMPLICATIONS 1992, STATISTICAL ABSTRACT 1992, WORLD RESOURCES 1992 1993, OTAF565 US C OFF TEC 1993, SCI AM, V269, P41 1993, STATISTICAL ABSTRACT 1994, GLOBAL EC PROSPECTS 1994, OECD FIGURES 1994, WORLD RESOURCES 1994 ATKINSON R, 1994, WASHINGTON POST 0312, A14 AUSUBEL JH, 1991, AM SCI, V79, P210 AUSUBEL JH, 1991, NATURE, V350, P649 BARBOUR IG, 1980, TECHNOLOGY ENV HUMAN BATIE SS, 1983, SCI AM, V248, P45 BHAGWATI J, 1993, SCI AM, V269, P42 COOPER RN, 1987, ENCY AM DALY HE, 1993, SCI AM, V269, P50 DEMENY P, 1990, EARTH TRANSFORMED HU, P42 DOBZHANSKY T, 1983, HUMAN CULTURE MOMENT DREZE J, 1990, POLITICAL EC HUNGER, V1 DREZE J, 1990, POLITICAL EC HUNGER, V2, P123 EHRLICH PR, 1988, EARTH 88 CHANGING GE, P302 FAGERBERG J, 1988, TECHNICAL CHANGE EC, P432 FRENCH HF, 1993, STATE WORLD 1993, P158 GOKLANY IM, 1992, 1992 ANN M AM ASS AD GOKLANY IM, 1992, ALTERNATIVE APPROACH GOKLANY IM, 1992, AM BIODIVERSITY STRA GOKLANY IM, 1993, KEY ISSUES RELATED S GOKLANY IM, 1994, AIR INLAND SURFACE W GROSSMAN G, 1991, 158 PRINC U W WILS S GUTHRIDGE G, 1994, COMMUNICATION OCT HEADRICK DR, 1990, EARTH TRANSFORMED HU, P55 HECHT SB, 1993, BIOSCIENCE, V43, P687 HOUGHTON RA, 1994, BIOSCIENCE, V44, P305 KLEIN HS, 1990, RISE MERCHANT EMPIRE, P287 KOCH P, 1991, 36 U WASH CTR INT TR KUMAR BG, 1990, POLITICAL EC HUNGER, V2, P173 KUMMER DM, 1994, BIOSCIENCE, V44, P323 LANDES DS, 1989, INTERACTIONS WORLD E, P153 LIPPKE B, 1992, WOOD PRODUCT DEMAND, P137 LIPPKE B, 1993, J FOREST, V91, P14 LIVIBACCI M, 1992, CONCISE HIST WORLD P MARTIN LG, 1991, SCIENCE, V251, P527 MCGOVERN TH, 1981, STUDIES CLIMATES THE, P404 MCNEILL WH, 1975, PLAGUES PEOPLES PEREZGARCIA JM, 1993, 43 U WASH CTR INT TR RICH S, 1994, WASH POST 0817, A17 RICHARDS JF, 1990, EARTH TRANSFORMED HU, P164 ROBEY B, 1993, SCI AM, V269, P60 ROUSH W, 1994, SCIENCE, V265, P1164 SCHELLING TC, 1983, CHANGING CLIMATE, P449 SEDJO RA, 1994, 9413 DISC PAP SEN AK, 1993, SCI AM, V268, P40 SEN AK, 1981, POVERTY FAMINES ESSA, V1, P1 SESKIN EP, 1978, CURRENT ISSUES US EN, P68 SEYBOLT P, 1992, COMMUNICATION OCT SHAFIK N, 1992, EC GROWTH ENV QUALIT SMITH AK, 1991, CREATING WORLD EC ME TEGART WJM, 1990, IPCC IMPACTS ASSESSM TRACY JD, 1990, RISE MERCHANT EMPIRE VITOUSEK PM, 1986, BIOSCIENCE, V36, P368 NR 74 TC 15 J9 CLIMATIC CHANGE BP 427 EP 449 PY 1995 PD AUG VL 30 IS 4 GA RQ310 UT ISI:A1995RQ31000003 ER PT J AU GUNDLACH, ER HAYES, MO TI VULNERABILITY OF COASTAL ENVIRONMENTS TO OIL-SPILL IMPACTS SO MARINE TECHNOLOGY SOCIETY JOURNAL LA English DT Article RP GUNDLACH, ER, UNIV S CAROLINA,DIV COASTAL RES,COLUMBIA,SC 29208. CR 1975, PETROLEUM MARINE ENV 1977, ARGO MERCHANT OIL SP BAKER JM, 1971, ECOLOGICAL EFFECTS O, P16 BAKER JM, 1971, ECOLOGICAL EFFECTS O, P21 BAKER JM, 1971, ECOLOGICAL EFFECTS O, P52 BLUMER M, 1971, ENVIRONMENT, V13, P2 BLUMER M, 1972, SCIENCE, V176, P1120 BOYD BD, 1976, SOURCES EFFECTS SINK, P38 BRODERSEN CC, 1977, 1977 API EPA USCG OI, P575 CHAN EI, 1977, OIL SPILL C, P539 COHEN Y, 1977, ENVIRON POLLUT, V12, P173 DOW RL, 1975, MARINE POLLUTION B, V6, P164 DUERDEN FC, 1976, EPS8EC761 ENV PROT S ELGERSHUIZEN JHB, 1976, MAR POLLUT B, V7, P22 EVANS DR, 1974, FISHERY B, V3, P635 FOLK RJ, 1968, PETROLOGY SEDIMENTAR GUNDLACH ER, 1977, MARINE POLLUTION B, V8, P132 GUNDLACH ER, 1977, OCEANS, V10, P56 HAYES MO, NATIONAL SCI F RES A HAYES MO, UNPUBLISHED HAYES MO, 1973, COASTAL GEOMORPHOLOG, P11 HAYES MO, 1975, COASTAL GEOMORPHOLOG HAYES MO, 1976, 12CRD U S CAR DEP GE HAYES MO, 1976, AM ASS PETR GEOL ANN HYLAND JL, 1976, SOURCES EFFECTS SINK, P464 JOHANNES RE, 1975, TROPICAL MARINE POLL, P13 LEOTTA J, 1975, 1975 C PREV CONTR OI, P201 LEWIS JB, 1971, MAR POLLUT B, V2, P59 MATTSON CP, 1977, 1977 P OIL SPILL C, P243 MAYNARD NG, 1977, 1977 P OIL SPILL C, P499 MCCAULL J, 1977, ENVIRONMENT, V19, P26 MICHAEL AD, 1975, 1975 C PREV CONTR OI, P573 MICHEL J, ALASKA ENV GEOL NADEAU RJ, 1977, 1977 P OIL SPILL C A, P535 NEWMAN DE, 1976, CONTROL OIL POLLUTIO, P83 ODUM WE, 1971, TROPICAL MARINE POLL, P52 ODUM WE, 1975, COASTAL ZONE MANAGEM, V1, P141 OWENS EH, 1975, THESIS U S CAROLINA OWENS EH, 1976, CAN J EARTH SCI, V13, P908 REIMER AA, 1975, MAR POLLUT B, V6, P39 ROLAND JV, 1977, 1977 OIL SPILL C P, P523 RUBY CH, UNPUBLISHED RUBY CH, 1977, SEP INT C NEWF RUTZLER K, 1970, BIOSCIENCE, V20, P222 SARTOR JD, 1971, P JOINT C PREVENTION, P505 SPOONER M, 1970, MAR POLLUT B, V1, P166 STIRLING HP, 1977, ENVIRON POLLUT, V12, P93 TEAL J, 1969, LIFE DEATH SALT MARS WARD LG, UNPUBLISHED WARDLEYSMITH J, 1973, CONTROL OIL POLLUTIO, P141 WARDLEYSMITH J, 1976, CONTROL OIL POLLUTIO, P181 WESTREE R, 1977, 1977 OIL SPILL C, P231 WOODIN SA, 1972, MAR POLLUT B, V2, P139 WORMALD AP, 1976, ENVIRON POLLUT, V11, P117 NR 54 TC 37 J9 MAR TECHNOL SOC J BP 18 EP 27 PY 1978 VL 12 IS 4 GA FS385 UT ISI:A1978FS38500004 ER PT J AU Davidson, DJ Williamson, T Parkins, JR TI Understanding climate change risk and vulnerability in northern forest-based communities SO CANADIAN JOURNAL OF FOREST RESEARCH-REVUE CANADIENNE DE RECHERCHE FORESTIERE LA English DT Article C1 Univ Alberta, Dept Rural Econ, Edmonton, AB T6G 2H1, Canada. Canadian Forest Serv, No Forestry Ctr, Edmonton, AB T6H 3S5, Canada. Univ Alberta, Dept Sociol, Edmonton, AB T6G 2H1, Canada. RP Davidson, DJ, Univ Alberta, Dept Rural Econ, Edmonton, AB T6G 2H1, Canada. AB Much research attention regarding climate change has been focused on the macrophysical and, to a lesser extent, the macrosocial features of this phenomenon. An important step in mitigation and adaptation will be to examine the ways that climate change risks manifest themselves in particular social localities. Certain social groups may be at greater risk, not solely because of their geographic location in a region of high climate sensitivity but also because of economic, political, and cultural characteristics. Combining the insights of economics and sociology, we provide an ideal-type model of northern forest-based communities that suggests that these communities may represent a particularized social context in regard to climate change. Although scientific research indicates that northern forest ecosystems are among those regions at greatest risk to the impacts of climate change, the social dimensions of these communities indicate both a limited community capacity and a limited potential to perceive climate change as a salient risk issue that warrants action. Five features of forest-based communities describe this context in further detail: (i) the constraints on adaptability in rural, resource-dependent communities to respond to risk in a proactive manner, (H) the national and international identification of deforestation as a central causal mechanism in the political arena, (iii) the nature of commercial forestry investment planning and management decision-making, (iv) the potential by members of these communities to underestimate the risk associated with climate change, and (v) the multiplicity of climate change risk factors in forest-based communities. CR *BRIT COL MIN WAT, 2002, IND CLIM CHANG BRIT *INT PAN CLIM CHAN, 1996, 2 INT PAN CLIM CHANG *INT PAN CLIM CHAN, 2001, 3 INT PAN CLIM CHANG *ROYAL SOC, 1992, RISK AN PERC MAN APEDAILE LP, 1992, RURAL SMALL TOWN CAN BEAMISH TD, 2000, SOC PROBL, V47, P473 BEAMISH TD, 2001, ORGAN ENVIRON, V14, P5 BECK U, 1995, ECOLOGICAL POLITICS BECK U, 1999, WORLD RISK SOC BOHOLM A, 1996, ETHNOS, V61, P64 BOSTROM A, 1994, RISK ANAL, V14, P959 CARSON RT, 1995, J ENVIRON ECON MANAG, V28, P155 CHASKIN RJ, 2001, URBAN AFF REV, V36, P291 CHICHILNISKY G, 1993, J ECON PERSPECT, V7, P65 CLARKE L, 1993, RES SOCIAL PROBLEMS, V5, P289 CUTTER SL, 1993, LIVING RISK GEOGRAPH DAVIDSON DJ, 1996, ENVIRON BEHAV, V28, P302 DICKENS P, 1992, 86 U SUSS CTR URB RE DOUGLAS M, 1982, RISK CULTURE ESSAY S DOWNING TE, 1999, CLIMATE CHANGE RISK DUNK T, 1994, CAN REV SOC ANTHROP, V31, P14 DUNLAP RE, 1991, PUBLIC OPIN QUART, V55, P651 DUNLAP RE, 1998, INT SOCIOL, V13, P473 EPP R, 2001, WRITING OFF RURAL W, P301 ERIKSON KT, 1976, EVERYTHING ITS PATH FREUDENBURG WR, 1992, RURAL SOCIOL, V57, P305 FREUDENBURG WR, 1993, SOC FORCES, V71, P909 GRAMLING R, 1997, CURR SOCIOL, V45, P41 HEBDA RJ, 1997, RESPONDING GLOBAL CL IRWIN A, 1999, ENVIRON PLANN A, V31, P1311 JAEGER C, 1993, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V23, P193 JOHNSON BL, 2001, HUM ECOL RISK ASSESS, V7, P221 KAHNEMAN D, 1992, J ENVIRON ECON MANAG, V22, P55 KELLY PM, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V47, P325 KEMPTON W, 1991, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V1, P183 KEMPTON W, 1995, ENV VALUES AM CULTUR KHARIN VV, 2000, J CLIMATE, V13, P3760 KOVACS PJE, 2001, ISUMA, P57 LEISS W, 1994, RISK RESPONSIBILITY MCDANIELS T, 1996, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V6, P159 OCONNOR RE, 1999, RISK ANAL, V19, P461 PODUR J, 2002, CAN J FOREST RES, V32, P195 READ D, 1994, RISK ANAL, V14, P971 ROGERS GO, 1997, RISK ANAL, V17, P745 ROSA EA, 1998, J RISK RES, V1, P15 SAPORTA R, 1998, CANADA COUNTRY STUDY, V7, P319 SINGH T, 1991, FOREST CHRON, V67, P342 SLOVIC P, 1987, SCIENCE, V236, P280 SMIT B, 2002, ENHANCING CAPACITY D STARR C, 1969, SCIENCE, V165, P1232 TORRY WI, 1983, SOCIAL SCI RES CLIMA TUCKER M, 1997, ECOL ECON, V22, P85 VISCUSI WK, 1987, RAND J ECON, V18, P465 VYNER HM, 1988, INVISIBILITY TRAUMA WHYTE AVT, 1985, CLIMATE IMPACT ASSES, P403 WILKINSON I, 2001, CURR SOCIOL, V49, P1 NR 56 TC 0 J9 CAN J FOREST RES BP 2252 EP 2261 PY 2003 PD NOV VL 33 IS 11 GA 743DZ UT ISI:000186558300022 ER PT J AU Mendelsohn, R Dinar, A Williams, L TI The distributional impact of climate change on rich and poor countries SO ENVIRONMENT AND DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS LA English DT Article C1 Yale Sch Forestry & Environm Studies, New Haven, CT 06511 USA. World Bank, Washington, DC 20433 USA. Elect Power Res Inst, Palo Alto, CA 94303 USA. RP Mendelsohn, R, Yale Sch Forestry & Environm Studies, 230 Prospect St, New Haven, CT 06511 USA. AB This paper examines the impact of climate change on rich and poor countries across the world. We measure two indices of the relative impact of climate across countries, impact per capita, and impact per GDP. These measures sum market impacts across the climate-sensitive economic sectors of each country. Both indices reveal that climate change will have serious distributional impact across countries, grouped by income per capita. We predict that poor countries Will suffer the bulk of the damages from climate change. Although adaptation, wealth, and technology may influence distributional consequences across countries, we argue that the primary reason that poor countries are so vulnerable is their location. Countries in the low latitudes start with very high temperatures. Further Warming pushed these countries ever further away from optimal temperatures for climate-sensitive economic sectors. CR *WORLD BANK GROUP, 2002, WORLD DEV IND 2002 ADAMS R, 1999, EC IMPACT CLIMATE CH ARROW KJ, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, P125 AZAR C, 1999, ENVIRON RESOUR ECON, V13, P249 BARRO RJ, 1997, DETERMINANTS EC GROW BARRO RJ, 2004, EC GROWTH BLOOM DE, 1998, BROOKINGS PAPERS EC, V2, P207 BOER GJ, 2000, CLIM DYNAM, V16, P427 EASTERLY W, 1997, Q J ECON, V112, P1203 EMORI S, 1999, J METEOROL SOC JPN, V77, P1299 FANKHAUSER S, 1995, VALUING CLIMATE CHAN FANKHAUSER S, 1997, ENVIRON RESOUR ECON, V10, P249 HOUGHTON J, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 HOUGHTON JT, 1994, CLIMATE CHANGE 1994 HURD BH, 1999, EC IMPACT CLIMATE CH JEPMA CJ, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, P225 KURUKURASURIYA P, 2003, CLIMATE CHANGE SERIE, V91 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 MENDELSOHN R, 1994, AM ECON REV, V84, P753 MENDELSOHN R, 1999, AMBIO, V28, P362 MENDELSOHN R, 1999, IMPACT CLIMATE CHANG MENDELSOHN R, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P553 MENDELSOHN R, 2000, INTEGRATED ASSESS, V1, P37 MENDELSOHN R, 2001, ENVIRON DEV ECON 1, V6, P85 MENDELSOHN R, 2001, GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANG, P92 MENDELSOHN R, 2001, GLOBAL WARMING AM EC NEUMANN JE, 2001, GLOBAL WARMING AM EC, P132 NG WS, 2005, ENVIRON DEV ECON 2, V10, P201 NORDHAUS WD, 1991, ECON J, V101, P920 PEARCE D, 2003, OXFORD REV ECON POL, V19, P362 PEARCE DW, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, P179 REILLY JM, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, P427 ROSENZWEIG C, 1994, NATURE, V367, P133 SCHELLING TC, 1992, AM ECON REV, V82, P1 SMITH JB, 1990, POTENTIAL EFFECTS GL SOHNGEN B, 2002, J AGR RESOUR ECON, V26, P326 SOLOW RM, 1956, Q J ECON, V70, P65 TOL RSJ, 1995, ENVIRON RESOUR ECON, V5, P353 TOL RSJ, 2001, ECOL ECON, V36, P71 TOL RSJ, 2002, ENVIRON RESOUR ECON, V21, P47 WASHINGTON WM, 2000, CLIM DYNAM, V16, P755 WILLIAMS LJ, 1998, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V39, P111 NR 42 TC 0 J9 ENVIRON DEV ECON BP 159 EP 178 PY 2006 PD APR VL 11 GA 034CS UT ISI:000236903000001 ER PT J AU GILVEAR, DJ MCINNES, RJ TI WETLAND HYDROLOGICAL VULNERABILITY AND THE USE OF CLASSIFICATION PROCEDURES - A SCOTTISH CASE-STUDY SO JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article RP GILVEAR, DJ, UNIV STIRLING,DEPT ENVIRONM SCI,STIRLING FK9 4LA,SCOTLAND. AB Wetland types can be related to the relative importance of the climatological, surface-water and groundwater variables found in the wetland water balance equation. Using this assumption a 12-fold hydrological classification that includes ombrotrophic, rheotrophic, minerotrophic and omnitrophic wetland types is proposed. Each wetland class can also be assigned a hydrological vulnerability to a number of man's activities and various types of water pollution. Using Scottish Natural Heritage data, compiled in relation to designation of Scottish Sites of Special Scientific Interest with a wetland component, the classification was tested to assess its usefulness as a first stage in wetland hydrological vulnerability assessment. Despite limited site-specific data, each of 399 wetlands were fairly confidently assigned to one of the 12 classes and thus a provisional assessment of its hydrological vulnerability could be made. It is believed that this classification may have universal application as a first stage in the generalized approach to wetland hydrological vulnerability assessment recently proposed by Lloyd et al. (1993; Journal of Environmental Management 37, 87-102), particularly if it can be linked to a simple lumped hydrological model to test the sensitivity of individual wetlands within any given class. CR BOATMAN DJ, 1981, J ECOL, V69, P897 FOYT W, 1991, CSD58 NAT CONS COUNC GEHRELS J, 1990, HYDROBIOLOGIA, V208, P221 GILMAN K, 1986, UNPUB HYDROLOGY WETL GILVEAR DJ, 1993, J HYDROL, V144, P311 GILVEAR DJ, 1994, AQUAT CONSERV, V4, P105 KOERSELMAN W, 1989, WETLANDS ECOLOGY MAN, V1, P31 LLOYD JW, 1993, J ENVIRON MANAGE, V37, P87 MCINNES R, 1992, THESIS U STIRLING NEWSON MD, 1992, PEATLAND ECOSYSTEMS, P94 STELLA, 1988, HIGH PERFORMANCE SYS WHEELER BD, 1984, EUROPEAN MIRES NR 12 TC 2 J9 J ENVIRON MANAGE BP 403 EP 414 PY 1994 PD DEC VL 42 IS 4 GA QC837 UT ISI:A1994QC83700007 ER PT J AU Winkler, H Baumert, K Blanchard, O Burch, S Robinson, JB TI What factors influence mitigative capacity? SO ENERGY POLICY LA English DT Article C1 Univ Cape Town, Energy Res Ctr, ZA-7701 Rondebosch, South Africa. World Resources Inst, Washington, DC 20006 USA. Int Energie & Polit Environm, Lab Econ Prod & Integrat, Grenoble, France. Univ British Columbia, Vancouver, BC V5Z 1M9, Canada. RP Winkler, H, Univ Cape Town, Energy Res Ctr, Private Bag, ZA-7701 Rondebosch, South Africa. AB This article builds on Yohe's seminal piece on mitigative capacity, which elaborates 'determinants' of mitigative capacity, also reflected in the IPCC's third assessment report. We propose a revised definition, where mitigative capacity is a country's ability to reduce anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions or enhance natural sinks. By "ability" we mean skills, competencies, fitness, and proficiencies that a country has attained which can contribute to GHG emissions mitigation. A conceptual framework is proposed, linking mitigative capacity to a country's sustainable development path, and grouping the factors influencing mitigative capacity into three main sets: economic factors, institutional ones, and technology. Both quantitative and qualitative analysis of factors is presented, showing how these factors vary across countries. We suggest that it is the interplay between the three economic factors-income, abatement cost and opportunity cost-that shape mitigative capacity. We find that income is an important economic factor influencing mitigative capacity, while abatement cost is important in turning mitigative capacity into actual mitigation. Technology is a critical mitigative capacity, including the ability to absorb existing climate-friendly technologies or to develop innovative ones. Institutional factors that promote mitigative capacity include the effectiveness of government regulation, clear market rules, a skilled work force and public awareness. We briefly investigate such as high abatement cost or lack of political willingness that prevent mitigative capacity from being translated into mitigation. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 *IPCC, 2001, CLIM CHANG 2001 MIT *IPCC, 2001, CLIM CHANG 2001 SYNT *UN MILL PROJ, 2004, INT REP TASK FORC 10 *UNFCCC, 1992, UN FRAM CONV CLIM CH *UNFCCC, 1997, KYOT PROT UN FRAM CO *WRI, 2003, CLIM AN IND TOOL CAI *WRI, 2005, CLIM AN IND TOOL CAI AZAR C, 2002, ECOL ECON, V42, P73 BANURI T, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, P74 BLANCHARD O, 2000, ECON INTEGRATION, P75 BLANCHARD O, 2002, BUILDING KYOTO PROTO, P203 BLANCHARD O, 2005, TECHNOLOGICAL CAPACI BODANSKY D, 2004, INT CLIMATE EFFORTS BURCH S, 2005, 6 OP M HUM DIM GLOB CAVENDERBARES J, 2001, LEARNING MANAGE GLOB, V1 DAVIDSON O, 2002, DEV ENERGY SOLUTIONS, P145 DECANIO SJ, 2000, NEW DIRECTIONS EC IN GRUBB M, 2004, INT REV ENV STRATEGI, V5, P15 GUPTA S, 1999, ENERG POLICY, V27, P727 HALSNAES K, 1998, EC GREENHOUSE GAS LI HELLER TC, 2003, DEV CLIMATE ENGAGING HOHNE N, 2004, OPTIONS 2 COMMITMENT HOURCADE JC, 1996, ENERG POLICY, V24, P863 LINDQUIST L, 1980, HARE TORTOISE CLEAN LIVERMAN DM, 2001, LEARNING MANAGE GLOB MUNASINGHE M, 2005, PRIMER CLIMATE CHANG NORDHAUS WD, 1993, RESOUR ENERGY ECON, V15, P27 NORGAARD RB, 1994, DEV BETRAYED END PRO PAN J, 2002, UNDERSTANDING HUMAN PORTER RB, 1991, FOREIGN EC POLICY MA RICHARDSON J, 1985, NATL POLICY STYLES E ROBINSON JB, 2006, AMBIO, V35, P2 SATTERFIELD TA, 2004, RISK ANAL, V24, P115 SHUKLA PR, 2002, CLIMATE CHANGE MITIG SWART RJ, 2003, CLIM POLICY S1, V3, S19 WEYANT JP, 1999, ENERGY J, R7 WINKLER H, 2002, BUILDING KYOTO PROTO, P61 WINKLER H, 2005, CLIM POLICY, V5, P209 YOHE GW, 2001, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V49, P247 NR 40 TC 0 J9 ENERG POLICY BP 692 EP 703 PY 2007 PD JAN VL 35 IS 1 GA 111LH UT ISI:000242452600061 ER PT J AU Parish, R Funnell, DC TI Climate change in mountain regions: some possible consequences in the Moroccan High Atlas SO GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS LA English DT Article C1 Univ St Andrews, Sch Geog & Geosci, St Andrews KY16 9ST, Fife, Scotland. Univ Sussex, AFRAS, Brighton BQH1 9N, E Sussex, England. RP Parish, R, Univ St Andrews, Sch Geog & Geosci, St Andrews KY16 9ST, Fife, Scotland. AB Mountain areas are particularly sensitive to climate change. Seasonal and annual variations in climate already strongly influence agro-ecosystems, and although there is much speculation about the precise effects in such areas, any response of the communities will emerge from existing coping practices. Using examples from the High Atlas in Morocco, the paper explores the implications for livestock management, arboriculture and tourism. Although the local agro-ecosystem may prove resilient initially, the need to change tenure conditions and other rules of management may lead to conflict which exceeds the capacity of local institutions to resolve. At the same time national considerations may also draw the state more fully into conflict with mountain communities over resource use. However, the paper argues that these issues are just as likely to emerge from the evolution of the national economy as from climate change. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *FAO, 1997, ANN PROD *IPCC, 1992, CLIM CHANG 1992 SUPP *IPCC, 1996, CLIM CHANG 1995 SCI *KINGD MOR, 1995, PREL RES 1994 CENS *MIN AGR, 1996, PROD EXP PRINC PROD *ORMVAH, 1970, REV GEOGRAPHIE MAROC, V14, P3 ALIFRIQUI M, 1993, SERIES C SEMINAIRES, V29, P319 BARRY RG, 1992, MOUNTAIN WEATHER CLI BARRY RG, 1994, MOUNTAIN ENV CHANGIN, P3 BAUMGARTNER MF, 1994, MOUNTAIN ENV CHANGIN, P108 BELLAOUI A, 1996, REV GEOGRAPHIE ALPIN, V84, P15 BENCHERIFA A, 1983, MT RES DEV, V3, P273 BENISTON M, 1994, MOUNTAIN ENV CHANGIN, P136 BENISTON M, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995 BERQUE J, 1978, STRUCTURES SOCIALES BERRIANE M, 1993, SERIES C SEMINAIRES, V29, P391 BILLAND A, 1996, REV GEOGRAPHIE ALPIN, V84, P95 BOHLE HG, 1994, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V4, P37 BOUJROUF S, 1996, REV GEOGRAPHIE ALPIN, V84, P37 BOUMEZA N, 1996, REV GEOGRAPHIE ALPIN, V84, P25 BRAZEL AJ, 1991, MOUNTAIN RES DEV, V9, P201 BROWER B, 1991, SHERPA KHUMBU BUCHER A, 1991, J CLIMATE, V4, P859 CARTER TR, 1994, MOUNTAIN ENV CHANGIN, P405 COUVREUR G, 1968, REV GEOGRAPHIE MAROC, V13, P3 DENNISTON D, 1995, 25 WORLD WATCH I DOUGHERTY WW, 1994, MT RES DEV, V14, P119 DRESCH J, 1954, ANN GEOGRAPHIE PARIS, V63, P56 DRESSLER J, 1982, Q J INT AGR, V21, P62 GARRIGUESCRESSW.M, 1985, PRODUCTION PASTORALE, V16, P5 GILLES JL, 1986, P C COMMON PROPERTY, P281 GROVE JM, 1996, TIME SCALES ENV CHAN, P39 HAMMOUDI A, 1977, THESIS EHSS PARIS HULME M, 1995, IMPACTS CLIMATIC CHA JOHNSTONE A, 1997, GEOGRAPHY 1, V82, P85 KOLLER A, 1997, MOUNTAINS WORLD GLOB KREUTZMANN HJ, 1988, HUMAN IMPACT MOUNTAI, P243 KUPFER JA, 1996, PROG PHYS GEOG, V20, P253 MASSELI DA, 1996, REV GEOGRAPHIE ALPIN, V84, P109 MCNEILL JR, 1992, MOUNTAINS MEDITERRAN MESSERLI B, 1992, MT RES DEV, V12, P315 MILLER JA, 1984, IMLIL MOROCCAN MOUNT NETTING RM, 1981, BALANCING ALP PARISH R, 1996, GEOGRAPHY 2, V81, P142 PEZELET L, 1996, REV GEOGRAPHIE ALPIN, V84, P133 PRICE MF, 1994, MOUNTAIN ENV CHANGIN, P431 PRICE MF, 1997, GLOBAL ECOL BIOGEOGR, V6, P77 PRICE MF, 1997, MOUNTAINS WORLD GLOB, P249 PRICE MF, 1997, MOUNTAINS WORLD GLOB, P409 RACHIK H, 1993, SERIES C SEMINAIRES, V29, P181 REILLY JM, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, P427 ROCHE P, 1965, REV JURIDIQUE POLIT, V19, P537 ROCHE P, 1965, REV JURIDIQUE POLIT, V19, P55 STONE P, 1992, STATE WORLDS MOUNTAI SURYANATA K, 1994, WORLD DEV, V22, P1567 TAG B, 1996, REV GEOGRAPHIE ALPIN, V84, P51 VIAZZO PP, 1989, UPLAND COMMUNITIES E WALLIS N, 1996, TIME SCALES ENV CHAN, P108 WESTWOOD MN, 1978, TEMPERATE ZONE POMOL NR 59 TC 1 J9 GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANGE BP 45 EP 58 PY 1999 PD APR VL 9 IS 1 GA 155RN UT ISI:000077960300004 ER PT J AU Scholze, M Knorr, W Arnell, NW Prentice, IC TI A climate-change risk analysis for world ecosystems SO PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA LA English DT Article C1 Univ Bristol, Dept Earth Sci, QUEST, Bristol BS8 1RJ, Avon, England. Univ Southampton, Tyndall Ctr Climate Change Res, Southampton SO17 1BJ, Hants, England. Univ Southampton, Sch Geog, Southampton SO17 1BJ, Hants, England. RP Scholze, M, Univ Bristol, Dept Earth Sci, QUEST, Wills Mem Bldg,Queens Rd, Bristol BS8 1RJ, Avon, England. AB We quantify the risks of climate-induced changes in key ecosystem processes during the 21st century by forcing a dynamic global vegetation model with multiple scenarios from 16 climate models and mapping the proportions of model runs showing forest/nonforest shifts or exceedance of natural variability in wildfire frequency and freshwater supply. Our analysis does not assign probabilities to scenarios or weights to models. Instead, we consider distribution of outcomes within three sets of model runs grouped by the amount of global warming they simulate: < 2 degrees C (including simulations in which atmospheric composition is held constant, i.e., in which the only climate change is due to greenhouse gases already emitted), 2-3 degrees C, and > 3 degrees C. High risk of forest loss is shown for Eurasia, eastern China, Canada, Central America, and Amazonia, with forest extensions into the Arctic and semiarid savannas; more frequent wildfire in Amazonia, the far north, and many semiarid regions; more runoff north of 50 degrees N and in tropical Africa and northwestern South America; and less runoff in West Africa, Central America, southern Europe, and the eastern U.S. Substantially larger areas are affected for global warming > 3 degrees C than for < 2 degrees C; some features appear only at higher warming levels. A land carbon sink of approximate to 1 Pg of C per yr is simulated for the late 20th century, but for > 3 degrees C this sink converts to a carbon source during the 21st century (implying a positive climate feedback) in 44% of cases. The risks continue increasing over the following 200 years, even with atmospheric composition held constant. CR *EUR COMM JOINT RE, 2003, GLOB LAND COV 2000 D *UN, 1992, UN FRAM CONV CLIM CH AHMAD OK, 2000, SUMMARY POLICYMAKERS ARNELL NW, 2003, HYDROL EARTH SYST SC, V7, P619 BACHELET D, 2001, ECOSYSTEMS, V4, P164 BOND WJ, 2005, NEW PHYTOL, V165, P525 COLLATZ GJ, 1992, AUST J PLANT PHYSIOL, V19, P519 COX PM, 2000, NATURE, V408, P184 CRAMER W, 2001, GLOBAL CHANGE BIOL, V7, P357 ETHERIDGE DM, 1996, J GEOPHYS RES-ATMOS, V101, P4115 FARQUHAR GD, 1980, PLANTA, V149, P78 FOLEY JA, 2005, SCIENCE, V309, P570 GERTEN D, 2004, J HYDROL, V286 HAXELTINE A, 1996, GLOBAL BIOGEOCHEM CY, V10, P693 HOUGHTON JT, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 HULME M, 1999, NATURE, V397, P688 JOOS F, 2004, GLOBAL BIOGEOCHEMICA, V18 KEELING CD, 1994, TRENDS 93 COMPENDIUM LLOYD J, 1994, FUNCT ECOL, V8, P315 LUCHT W, 2002, SCIENCE, V296, P1687 MASTRANDREA MD, 2004, SCIENCE, V304, P571 MCGUIRE AD, 2001, GLOBAL BIOGEOCHEM CY, V15, P183 NAKICENOVIC N, 2000, SPECIAL REPORT EMISS NEILSON RP, 1998, GLOB CHANGE BIOL, V4, P505 NEILSON RP, 1998, IPCC SPECIAL REPORT NEW M, 1999, J CLIMATE, V12, P829 NORBY RJ, 2005, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V102, P18052 PARMESAN C, 2003, NATURE, V421, P37 PARRY ML, 1996, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V6, P1 PRENTICE IC, 2000, ECOL APPL, V10, P1553 PRENTICE IC, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, P183 PRENTICE IC, 2007, IN PRESS IGBP BOOK S SCHAPHOFF S, 2006, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V74, P97 SCHNEIDER SH, 2001, NATURE, V411, P17 SCHNEIDER SH, 2005, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V102, P15728 SCHOLZE M, 2003, HOLOCENE, V13, P327 SCHROTER D, 2005, SCIENCE, V310, P1333 SITCH S, 2003, GLOBAL CHANGE BIOL, V9, P161 THONICKE K, 2001, GLOBAL ECOL BIOGEOGR, V10, P661 WAGNER W, 2003, J GEOPHYS RES, V108 NR 40 TC 0 J9 PROC NAT ACAD SCI USA BP 13116 EP 13120 PY 2006 PD AUG 29 VL 103 IS 35 GA 082IU UT ISI:000240380800032 ER PT J AU Steg, L Sievers, I TI Cultural theory and individual perceptions of environmental risks SO ENVIRONMENT AND BEHAVIOR LA English DT Article C1 Social & Cultural Planning Off, NL-2500 BD Den Haag, Netherlands. Univ Groningen, Ctr Environm & Traff Psychol, NL-9700 AB Groningen, Netherlands. RP Steg, L, Social & Cultural Planning Off, Postbox 16164, NL-2500 BD Den Haag, Netherlands. AB Understanding differences in environmental risk perception and risk judgments might facilitate the development of effective environmental risk management strategies, including risk communication. Cultural theory holds that systematic individual differences exist in the perception of environmental risks based on four different myths of nature: nature benign, nature ephemeral, nature perverse/tolerant, and nature capricious. The myths of nature represent distinct perceptions toward environmental risks, which are assumed to be closely related to preferences for appropriate risk management strategies. The authors examined to what extent myths of nature are related to beliefs associated with problems of car use and preferences for strategies to manage these problems. As hypothesized, significant variations in perceptions, preferences, and policy evaluations were found among respondents favoring different myths of nature. Nature ephemeral was associated with a higher problem awareness and a more positive evaluation of policy measures, especially in comparison to nature benign. CR *NIPO, 1995, VIJF MET MIL TEKSTR BECK U, 1992, RISK SOC NEW MODERNI BRUNDTLAND GH, 1989, SCI AM, V261, P190 BURTON I, 1978, ENV HAZARD, V1, P1 DAKE K, 1991, J CROSS CULT PSYCHOL, V22, P61 DAKE K, 1992, J SOC ISSUES, V48, P21 DIETZ T, 1998, ENVIRON BEHAV, V30, P450 DOUGLAS M, 1982, RISK CULTURE ESSAY S DUNLAP RE, 1978, J ENVIRON EDUC, V9, P10 EARLE TC, 1995, SOCIAL TRUST COSMOPO EARLE TC, 1997, RISK ANAL, V17, P55 EARLE TC, 1999, SOCIAL TRUST MANAGEM, P9 ELLIS RJ, 1997, AM POLIT SCI REV, V91, P885 GRENDSTAD G, 1997, CULTURE MATTERS ESSA, P151 GRENDSTAD G, 1997, ECPR JOINT WORKSH CU INGLEHART R, 1990, CULTURE SHIFT ADV IN JONES RE, 1992, RURAL SOCIOL, V57, P28 LASKA SB, 1990, ENVIRON BEHAV, V22, P320 MCCLINTOCK CG, 1972, BEHAV SCI, V19, P353 PALMER CGS, 1996, RISK ANAL, V16, P717 RAYNER S, 1992, SOCIAL THEORIES RISK, P83 ROE EM, 1996, INT J SUST DEV WORLD, V3, P1 SCHWARTZ SH, 1977, ADV EXPT SOCIAL PSYC, V10, P221 SCHWARTZ SH, 1992, ADV EXP SOC PSYCHOL, V25, P1 SCHWARZ M, 1990, DIVIDED WE STAND RED SIEGRIST M, 1999, SALIENT VALUE SIMILA SJOBERG L, 1996, RADIAT PROT DOSIM, V68, P219 STALLEN PJM, 1988, RISK ANAL, V8, P237 STEG EM, 1996, THESIS U GRONINGEN N STEG L, 1997, TRAFFIC TRANSPORT PS, P465 STEM PC, 1993, ENVIRON BEHAV, V25, P322 STERN PC, 1995, ENVIRON BEHAV, V27, P723 THOMPSON M, 1990, CULTURAL THEORY VANASSELT MBA, 1996, ENVIRON MODEL ASSESS, V1, P71 VLEK C, 1996, INT C SUST TRANSP VA WILDAVSKY A, 1990, DAEDALUS, V119, P41 NR 36 TC 3 J9 ENVIRON BEHAV BP 250 EP 269 PY 2000 PD MAR VL 32 IS 2 GA 290DB UT ISI:000085660000004 ER PT J AU O'Hare, G TI Climate change and the temple of sustainable development SO GEOGRAPHY LA English DT Article C1 Univ Derby, Geog Div, Derby DE22 2NE, England. RP O'Hare, G, Univ Derby, Geog Div, Kedleston Rd, Derby DE22 2NE, England. AB For many poor and marginalised groups living in the developing world, the notion of sustainable development as a realisable working concept remains ajar off dream. This is because zip till now the developed countries have not shown the political will to implement long-lasting and sustainable poverty alleviation measures to raise living standards for the worlds poorest societies. The use of the concept also seems inappropriate with respect to communities and systems faced with the devastating effect of frequent or prolonged climate hazards. Evidence from this article shows that such communities, whether existing in the flood plains of England and Wales (flood hazard) or along the hurricane coast of eastern India (storm hazard), struggle to maintain their lifestyles and standards of living. An important issue here concerns the availability of physical, economic and institutional resources employed to combat the effects of the climate hazard and to reduce the vulnerability of high-risk communities and groups exposed to them. This article shows that when these resources are lacking, the adaptive capacities of local communities to cope with the effects of severe climate impacts declines. The result is that community development levels either suffer a long-term fall, especially if the climate event is frequent or prolonged enough, or are maintained at a level much lower than they would otherwise be in the absence of the external climate stimuli. If the principles of sustainable development are to be realised for such hazard-prone communities, then the inclusion of climate risks in the design and implementation of development programmes is a necessary first step. CR AGARWAL B, 1990, J PEASANT STUD, V17, P341 BOARDMAN J, 2000, GUARDIAN 1108 BURT S, 2001, WEATHER, V56, P139 BURTHON I, 1993, ENV HAZARD CANNELL MGR, 1999, INDICATORS CLIMATE C COMFORT L, 1999, ENV HAZARDS, V1, P39 DAWSON A, 2001, GEOGRAPHY, V85, P193 DEGG M, 1992, GEOGRAPHY, V77, P198 HEWITT K, 1983, INTERPRETATIONS CALA HOUGHTON JT, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, P155 KELMAN I, 2001, WEATHER, V56, P346 MARSH TJ, 2001, WEATHER, V56, P343 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 OHARE G, 2000, AREA, V32, P357 OHARE G, 2001, GEOGR J 1, V167, P23 OLIVERSMITH A, 1994, DISASTERS DEV ENV, P31 OSBORN TJ, 2000, INT J CLIMATOL, V20, P347 OWE J, 2002, GEOGRAPHY, V87, P116 PULWARTY RS, 1997, HURRICANES CLIMATE S, P185 SCHMITH T, 1998, CLIM DYNAM, V14, P529 SMITH K, 1997, APPL CLIMATOLOGY PRI, P301 SMITH K, 1998, FLOODS PHYSICAL PROC WIGLEY TML, 1999, SCI CLIMATE CHANGE G NR 23 TC 0 J9 GEOGRAPHY BP 234 EP 246 PY 2002 PD JUL VL 87 GA 576CW UT ISI:000176986100007 ER PT J AU Adger, WN Kelly, PM Winkels, A Huy, LQ Locke, C TI Migration, remittances, livelihood trajectories, and social resilience SO AMBIO LA English DT Article C1 Univ E Anglia, Climat Res Unit, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. Univ E Anglia, Sch Environm Sci, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. RP Adger, WN, Univ E Anglia, Climat Res Unit, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. AB We argue that all aspects of demographic change, including migration, impact on the social resilience of individuals and communities, as well as on the sustainability of the underlying resource base. Social resilience is the ability to cope with and adapt to environmental and social change mediated through appropriate institutions. We investigate one aspect of the relationship between demographic change, social resilience, and sustainable development in contemporary coastal Vietnam: the effects of migration and remittances on resource-dependent communities in population source areas. We find, using longitudinal data on livelihood sources, that emigration and remittances have offsetting effects on resilience within an evolving social and political context. Emigration is occurring concurrently with, not driving, the expansion of unsustainable coastal aquaculture. Increasing economic inequality also undermines social resilience. At the same time diversification and increasing income levels are beneficial for resilience. 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RP Azar, C, Chalmers Univ Technol, S-41296 Gothenburg, Sweden. AB This article starts with a review of climate policy targets (temperature, concentrations and emissions for individual regions as well as the world as a whole). A 20-40% reduction target for the EU is proposed for the period 2000-2020. It then looks at costs to meet such targets, and concludes that there is widespread agreement amongst macro-economic studies that stringent carbon controls are compatible with a significant increase in global and regional economic welfare. The difference in growth rates is found to be less than 0.05% per year. Nevertheless, concern still remains about the distribution of costs. If abatement policies are introduced in one or a few regions without similar climate policies being introduced in the rest of the world, some energy-intensive industries may lose competitiveness, and production may be relocated to other countries. Policies to protect these industries have for that reason been proposed (in order to protect jobs, to avoid strong actors lobbying against the climate policies, and to avoid carbon leakage). The article offers an overview of the advantages and drawbacks of such protective policies. 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RP Young, L, Staffordshire Univ, Div Geog, Coll Rd, Stoke On Trent ST4 2DE, Staffs, England. AB This paper examines recent debates in development discourse and their implications for analyses of gender and hunger. II recognizes the insights that postist approaches offer, but finds that they too have dangers. It concludes that traditional perspectives and the categories these employ require revision rather than rejection. 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RP van Kooten, GC, Univ British Columbia, Dept Agr Econ, Vancouver, BC V5Z 1M9, Canada. CR 1997, ECONOMIST 0315 ARTHUR LM, 1988, W J AGR EC, V13, P215 BARR E, 1995, MANAGING NATURAL RES, P95 BRUBAKER E, 1995, PROPERTY RIGHTS DEFE BUDIANSKY S, 1995, NATURES KEEPERS NEW BUTLA S, 1990, FIELD BROKEN DREAMS, P30 DARWIN RF, 1995, 703 USDA AGR EC DELCOURT G, 1995, J SUSTAIN AGR, V5, P37 FROUDWILLIAMS RJ, 1996, IMPLICATIONS GLOBAL HILLEL DJ, 1991, OUT EARTH LEROHL ML, 1995, PRAIRIE FORUM, V20, P107 MANN CC, 1995, NOAHS CHOICE MOONEY S, 1991, EC IMPACTS CLIMATE C MORTON AS, 1938, HIST PRAIRIE SETTLEM MUNRO G, 1995, MANAGING NATURAL RES, P80 PANAYOTOU T, 1993, GREEN MARKETS PEARSE PH, 1976, TIMBER RIGHTS FOREST REILLY JM, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, P427 RICE RE, 1997, SCI AM, V276, P44 SCOTT A, 1995, MANAGING NATURAL RES VANKOOTEN GC, 1992, AM J AGR ECON, V74, P79 VANKOOTEN GC, 1993, LAND RESOURCES EC SU VANKOOTEN GC, 1995, CAN J AGR ECON, V43, P133 NR 23 TC 1 J9 AMER J AGR ECON BP 1508 EP 1514 PY 1997 VL 79 IS 5 GA ZN774 UT ISI:000073681300025 ER PT J AU Carpenter, SR Walker, BH Anderies, JM Abel, N TI From metaphor to measurement: Resilience of what to what? SO ECOSYSTEMS LA English DT Review C1 Univ Wisconsin, Ctr Limnol, Madison, WI 53706 USA. CSIRO Sustainable Ecosyst, Canberra, ACT 2615, Australia. RP Carpenter, SR, Univ Wisconsin, Ctr Limnol, 680 N Pk St, Madison, WI 53706 USA. AB Resilience is the magnitude of disturbance that can be tolerated before a socioecological system (SES) moves to a different region of state space controlled by a different set of processes. Resilience has multiple levels of meaning: as a metaphor related to sustainability, as a property of dynamic models, and as a measurable quantity that can be assessed in field studies of SES. The operational indicators of resilience have, however, received little attention in the literature. To assess a system's resilience, one must specify which system configuration and which disturbances are of interest. This paper compares resilience properties in two contrasting SES, lake districts and rangelands, with respect to the following three general features: (a) The ability of an SES to stay in the domain of attraction is related to slowly changing variables, or slowly changing disturbance regimes, which control the boundaries of the domain of attraction or the frequency of events that Could Push the system across the boundaries. Examples are soil phosphorus content in lake districts woody vegetation cover in rangelands, and property rights systems that affect land use in both lake districts and rangelands, (b) The ability of an SES to self-organize is related to the extent to which reorganization is endogenous rather than forced by external drivers. Self-organization is enhanced by coevolved ecosystem components and the presence of social networks that facilitate innovative problem solving. (c) The adaptive capacity of an SES is related to the existence of mechanisms for the evolution of novelty or learning. Examples include biodiversity at multiple scales and the existence of institutions that facilitate experimentation, discovery, and innovation. 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SO AMBIO LA English DT Editorial Material C1 Helsinki Univ Technol, Water Resources Lab, FIN-02015 Espoo, Finland. RP Varis, O, Helsinki Univ Technol, Water Resources Lab, POB 5200, FIN-02015 Espoo, Finland. CR *ICID, 2003, ICID DAT *IFRC, 2002, WORLD DIS REP 2002 I MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 *MRC, 2005, INF RES FLOOD INF *WCD, 2000, DAMS DEV REP WORLD C KUNDZEWICZ ZW, 2001, INT C FRESHW 3 7 DEC KUNDZEWICZ ZW, 2002, WATER INT, V27, P3 VARIS O, 2003, INT J WATER RESOUR D, V19, P295 VARIS O, 2004, IN PRESS CLIM CHANGE YIN HF, 2001, GEOMORPHOLOGY, V41, P105 NR 10 TC 0 J9 AMBIO BP 478 EP 480 PY 2005 PD AUG VL 34 IS 6 GA 954TW UT ISI:000231178800011 ER PT J AU Labat, D Godderis, Y Probst, JL Guyot, JL TI Evidence for global runoff increase related to climate warming SO ADVANCES IN WATER RESOURCES LA English DT Article C1 UPS, CNRS, UMR 5563, Lab Mecanisme Transferts Geol, F-31400 Toulouse, France. RP Labat, D, UPS, CNRS, UMR 5563, Lab Mecanisme Transferts Geol, 38 Rue 36 Ponts, F-31400 Toulouse, France. AB Ongoing global climatic change initiated by the anthropogenic release of carbon dioxide is a matter of intense debate. We focus both on the impact of these climatic changes on the global hydrological cycle and on the amplitude of the increase of global and continental runoff over the last century, in relation to measured temperature increases. In this contribution, we propose an original statistical wavelet-based method for the reconstruction of the monthly discharges of worldwide largest rivers. This method provides a data-based approximation of the evolution of the annual continental and global runoffs over the last century. A consistent correlation is highlighted between global annual temperature and runoff, suggesting a 4% global runoff increase by 1 degreesC global temperature rise. However, this global trend should be qualified at the regional scale where both increasing and decreasing trends are identified. North America runoffs appear to be the most sensitive to the recent climatic changes. Finally, this contribution provides the first experimental data-based evidence demonstrating the link between the global warming and the intensification of the global hydrological cycle. This corresponds to more intense evaporation over oceans coupled to continental precipitation increase or continental evaporation decrease. This process finally leads to an increase of the global continental runoff. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 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RP Patwardhan, A, Indian Inst Technol, Shailesh J Mehta Sch Management, Bombay 400076, Maharashtra, India. AB The vulnerability of developing countries to potential impacts of climate change and the options for adaptation are rapidly emerging as central issues in the debate around policy responses to climate change. In order to prioritize, design and implement interventions to adapt to climate change, it is essential to adopt a coherent and consistent set of definitions and frameworks for examining vulnerability, adaptation and adaptive capacity. In practice, a variety of definitions of vulnerability and adaptation are found in the literature. This paper uses the base of literature from the context of the coastal impacts of climate change to draw some explicit linkages between the objectives of vulnerability and adaptation assessment and the definitions used in the analysis. 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CR 1993, IMPACTS GREENHOUSE I 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 ABETE T, 1993, IPCC CC 93 E HEM WOR BARTH MC, 1984, GREENHOUSE EFFECT SE CAMBERS G, 1994, 3 IPCC CZMS WORKSH M DENELZEN MGJ, 1992, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V20, P169 GORNITZ V, 1989, COASTAL ZONE 89, P1345 GORNITZ V, 1991, COASTAL ZONE, P2354 HUGHES P, 1992, S AFR J SCI, V88, P308 MILLIMAN JD, 1989, AMBIO, V18, P340 MORGAN MG, 1981, IEEE SPECTRUM, V18, P58 NICHOLLS RJ, 1993, WORLD RISK NATURAL H, P193 PERDOMO M, 1992, IPCC RESPONSE STRATE RIJKSWATERSTAAT, 1990, SEA LEVEL RISE WORLD SCHNEIDER SH, 1980, ANNU REV ENERG ENV, V5, P107 SMITH JB, 1989, POTENTIAL EFFECTS GL TITUS JG, 1986, EFFECTS CHANGES STRA, V4 TITUS JG, 1988, GREENHOUSE EFFECT SE TITUS JG, 1990, CHANGING CLIMATE COA TITUS JG, 1991, COASTAL ZONE MANAGEM, V19, P172 WEST JJ, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V48, P317 WEST JJ, 1999, CLIMATE CHANGE RISK, P205 YOHE GW, 1990, COAST MANAGE, V18, P403 YOHE GW, 1996, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V32, P387 YOHE GW, 1998, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V38, P447 NR 25 TC 0 J9 CURR SCI BP 376 EP 383 PY 2006 PD FEB 10 VL 90 IS 3 GA 014RM UT ISI:000235497600023 ER PT J AU Smith, ER TI An overview of EPA's Regional Vulnerability Assessment (ReVA) Program SO ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING AND ASSESSMENT LA English DT Article C1 US EPA, Natl Exposure Res Lab, Res Triangle Pk, NC 27711 USA. RP Smith, ER, US EPA, Natl Exposure Res Lab, Res Triangle Pk, NC 27711 USA. AB Regional Vulnerability Assessment (ReVA) is an approach to place-based ecological risk assessment that is currently under development by EPA's Office of Research and Development. The pilot assessment will be done for the mid-Atlantic region and builds on data collected for the Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program. ReVA is being developed to identify those ecosystems most vulnerable to being lost or degraded in the next 5 to 50 years and to elucidate which stressors cause the greatest risk to ecosystem goods and services. The goal here is not exact predictions, but an early warning system to identify and prioritize the undesirable environmental changes we should expect over the next few decades. As such, ReVA represents a new risk paradigm for EPA that will require innovative approaches to combine existing knowledge, focus new research, and synthesize many types of information into a meaningful assessment designed to inform environmental decision-makers about future environmental risk. CR *NAT SCI TECHN COU, 1995, BUILD SCI BAS ENS VI BOXALL PC, 1996, ECOL ECON, V18, P243 BRADLEY M, IN PRESS ENV MONITOR COSTANZA R, 1997, NATURE, V387, P253 HOFFMAN FO, 1999, HUM ECOL RISK ASSESS, V5, P255 JONES KB, 1997, EPA600R97130 LUBCHENCO J, 1998, SCIENCE, V279, P491 MACE TM, 1990, P ASPRS ACSM ANN CON, P691 MESSER JJ, 1991, ENVIRON MONIT ASSESS, V17, P67 ONEILL RV, 1997, BIOSCIENCE, V47, P513 PETERMAN RM, 1999, HUM ECOL RISK ASSESS, V5, P231 TROYER ME, 1994, EPA600R94183 NR 12 TC 0 J9 ENVIRON MONIT ASSESS BP 9 EP 15 PY 2000 PD SEP VL 64 IS 1 GA 352XL UT ISI:000089244600003 ER PT J AU Solecki, WD TI The role of global-to-local linkages in land use/land cover change in South Florida SO ECOLOGICAL ECONOMICS LA English DT Article C1 Montclair State Univ, Dept Earth & Environm Sci, Upper Montclair, NJ 07043 USA. RP Solecki, WD, Montclair State Univ, Dept Earth & Environm Sci, Upper Montclair, NJ 07043 USA. AB This paper examines the land use/land cover change in South Florida from the late 19th century to the late 20th century, Its theoretical approach is derived from geographical literatures on globalization, spatial scale and ecological transition. Two research questions frame the discussion. (1) Is there evidence of top-down or bottom-up global-to-local interactions in the region? and (2) Is there evidence of an ecological transition present in the region? Evidence of the land use/land cover impacts of these global-to-local linkage shifts is developed for the region by examining the socio-economic conditions and land use/land cover changes. These interactions are studied through a review of primary and secondary reference sources. The results of the analysis indicate that local conditions and actors remain important in determining local land use/land cover change in South Florida despite a long history of non-local interventions/processes in the region. In recent years, globalization and other non-local influences may have activated local coalitions around land-use change issues. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. 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RP Yasue, M, Univ Victoria, Dept Geog, Marine Protected Areas Res Grp, POB 3050, Victoria, BC V8W 3P5, Canada. AB 1. Increased human pressure on coastal habitats has contributed to the global population decline in waders. Although coastal development can be particularly rapid and poorly regulated in tropical countries, very little research has been conducted to assess the extent of these impacts in the tropics. 2. We examined the potential effects of human disturbance and tourism-related habitat changes on Malaysian plovers breeding on sandy tropical beaches. 3. In 2004 and 2005, we monitored 54 and 79 pairs of Malaysian plovers in the Gulf of Thailand, and used logistic habitat models to identify factors influencing habitat selection and breeding success. These models included variables affected by anthropogenic changes such as human disturbance and vegetation structure, as well as other natural factors such as prey availability and predator densities. We also assessed causes of nest failure and conducted 372 h of behavioural observations to identify mechanisms that relate important habitat variables to plover productivity. 4. Plovers selected wide beaches with low levels of human disturbance that had a low percentage cover of tall trees backing the beach. The likelihood of hatching clutches and fledging chicks was greater in territories with low levels of human disturbance, low conspecific density and high percentage cover of 0.5-5 m tall vegetation backing the beach. 5. Nest monitoring and behavioural observations suggested that heightened vulnerability to tidal inundation, trampling, heat stress, predators and territorial conflicts may have contributed to the results from the habitat models. 6. We conclude that tourism development on Thai beaches affects both habitat availability and productivity of Malaysian plovers by enhancing beach erosion rates, converting medium vegetation into tall monocultures and intensifying human disturbance. These direct effects of habitat loss may be exacerbated by density-dependent reductions in productivity. 7. Synthesis and application. This study demonstrates the value of combining three approaches: habitat modelling, nest monitoring and behavioural observations, for identifying impacts of anthropogenic changes on breeding birds and assigning ultimate causes. In understudied regions where there are pressing threats to wildlife, this approach may focus research efforts so that the necessary data can be obtained rapidly in order to assess and predict human impacts. CR *INT WAD STUD GROU, 2003, WAD AR DECL WORLDW C *WORLD RES I, 2004, EARTHTR COUNTR PROF AMAT JA, 2004, ANIM BEHAV 2, V67, P293 BAILLIE JEM, 2004, IUCN LIST THREATENED BEALE CM, 2004, J APPL ECOL, V41, P343 BOLDUC F, 2003, BIOL CONSERV, V110, P77 BROOK L, 2002, WATERBIRDS, V25, P401 BROWN AC, 2002, ENVIRON CONSERV, V29, P62 CLARK JR, 1997, OCEAN COAST MANAGE, V37, P191 CLARK RG, 1991, WILDLIFE SOC B, V19, P534 DAUBENMIRE R, 1959, NW SCI, V33, P43 DEARDEN P, 1997, FORUM APPL RES PUBLI, V12, P123 DECANDIDO R, 2004, FORKTAIL, V20, P41 DEKKER D, 2004, CONDOR, V106, P415 DINIZ JAF, 2003, GLOBAL ECOL BIOGEOGR, V12, P53 FINNEY SK, 2005, BIOL CONSERV, V121, P53 FISH MR, 2005, CONSERV BIOL, V19, P482 FLEMMING SP, 1988, J FIELD ORNITHOL, V59, P321 FRAGA RM, 1996, ARDEOLA, V43, P69 FRID A, 2002, CONSERV ECOL, V6, P1 GHALAMBOR CK, 2000, ANIM BEHAV 2, V60, P263 GHALAMBOR CK, 2001, SCIENCE, V292, P494 GILL JA, 2000, BEHAV CONSERVATION, P51 GOCHFELD M, 1984, BEHAV MARINE ANIM, V5, P289 GOSSCUSTARD JD, 1995, IBIS, V137, S56 GREGORYSMITH R, 1998, FORKTAIL, V14, P79 HALL CM, 2000, TOURISM S S E ASIA KEITT TH, 2002, ECOGRAPHY, V25, P616 KOENEN MT, 1996, WILSON BULL, V108, P292 KONTOGEORGOPOUL.N, 1999, CURRENT ISSUES TOURI, V2, P316 KONTOGEORGOPOUL.N, 2004, GEOJOURNAL, V61, P1 LEGENDRE P, 1993, ECOLOGY, V74, P1659 LESEBERG A, 2000, BIOL CONSERV, V96, P379 LILEY D, 1999, THESIS U E ANGLIA NO LORD A, 1997, BIOL CONSERV, V82, P15 LORD A, 2001, BIOL CONSERV, V98, P233 LUNDY H, 1969, FERTILITY HATCHABILI, P143 MANZER DL, 2005, J WILDLIFE MANAGE, V69, P110 MARTIN TE, 1996, J AVIAN BIOL, V27, P263 MAYFIELD H, 1961, WILSON B, V73, P255 PAGE GW, 1983, AUK, V100, P13 PAMPUSH GJ, 1993, CONDOR, V95, P957 PARR JWK, 1993, ORYX, V27, P245 PIATT JF, 1990, AUK, V107, P342 PINDYCK RS, 1998, ECONOMETRIC MODELS E POWELL AN, 2001, CONDOR, V103, P785 ROOT KV, 2003, CONSERV BIOL, V17, P196 ROUNDS RA, 2004, J FIELD ORNITHOL, V75, P317 RUHLEN TD, 2003, J FIELD ORNITHOL, V74, P300 SUTHERLAND W, 1998, ANIM BEHAV 4, V56, P801 SUTHERLAND WJ, 2002, PHILOS T ROY SOC B, V357, P1273 TAKAHASHI M, 2001, J ETHOL, V19, P93 VISSER GH, 1993, PHYSIOL ZOOL, V66, P771 WATTS BD, 1995, WILSON BULL, V107, P767 WEBB DR, 1987, CONDOR, V89, P874 WESTERSKOV K, 1950, J WILDLIFE MANAGE, V14, P56 WESTON MA, 2005, BIRD CONSERV INT, V15, P193 WIEBE KL, 1998, ANIM BEHAV 5, V56, P1137 WOLFF JO, 1999, J ZOOL, V4, P535 YASUE M, 2006, BIOL CONSERVATION YASUE M, 2006, WADER STUDY GROUP B, V109, P121 ZIEWITZ JW, 1992, PRAIRIE NAT, V24, P1 NR 62 TC 0 J9 J APPL ECOL BP 978 EP 989 PY 2006 PD OCT VL 43 IS 5 GA 076WB UT ISI:000239987700015 ER PT J AU Byravan, S Rajan, SC TI Providing new homes for climate change exiles SO CLIMATE POLICY LA English DT Article C1 Council Responsible Genet, Cambridge, MA 02140 USA. Tellus Inst, Boston, MA 02116 USA. RP Byravan, S, Council Responsible Genet, 5 Upland Rd,Suite 3, Cambridge, MA 02140 USA. AB Given a certain pre-existing commitment to sea-level rise due to the long thermal lags of the ocean system, several million people living in coastal areas and small islands will inevitably be displaced by the middle of the century. These climate exiles will have nowhere to go. Rather than deal with this in an ad hoc manner as the problem arises, the authors propose a mechanism by which these exiles would be given immigration benefits by countries through a formula that ties numbers of immigrants to a country's historical greenhouse gas emissions. Such a compensatory mechanism appears to be a fair way of addressing the problems faced by climate exiles. CR *EM DAT, 2006, EM DAT INT DIS DAT MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 ALLEN M, 2003, NATURE, V421, P891 ATKINS T, 2004, INSURER WARNS GLOBAL BARNETT J, 2002, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V61, P321 CHURCH JA, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, P639 HANSEN J, 2005, SCIENCE, V308, P1431 HANSEN JE, 2005, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V68, P269 NAKICENOVIC N, 2000, SPECIAL REPROT INTER NICHOLLS RJ, 1995, P WORLD COAST 93 NICHOLLS RJ, 2004, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V14, P229 NICHOLLS RJ, 2004, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V14, P69 OVERPECK JT, 2006, SCIENCE, V311, P1747 POGGE TWM, 2001, GLOBAL JUSTICE RIGNOT E, 2006, SCIENCE, V311, P986 SMALL C, 2003, J COASTAL RES, V19, P584 NR 16 TC 0 J9 CLIM POLICY BP 247 EP 252 PY 2006 VL 6 IS 2 GA 115XL UT ISI:000242767000007 ER PT J AU Labre, J TI Towards water scarcity in the 21st century? Current schools of thought SO HOUILLE BLANCHE-REVUE INTERNATIONALE DE L EAU LA French DT Article AB This article describes current schools of thought on water as a finite resource and, as such, a factor to be contended within the pursuit of sustainable development. The media, in inflating this topic, has tended to create stereotypes in the minds of the public and the leaders of opinion. These issues must be put into their proper perspective if a constructive debate is to ensue. The four main schools of thought, addressed schematically in this article are as follows: the neo-Malthusian school, which focuses on water as a key factor in global food security and asserts that, overall, rite continued growth of man-made pressures on the hydrological cycle cannot fail to have adverse consequences for Biodiversity the Planning-centred approach which places the emphasis on water resources as all aspect of economic development at the state level, the Geostrategic viewpoint, which stresses transboundary issues and the vulnerability of certain nations due to their lack of autonomy regarding water resources, the Economy-centred theory which advocates market mechanisms as a means of regulating resource allocation. This works by conciliating the interests of the individual with those of the economic community through instruments such as fees, incentives and water right transactions. NR 0 TC 0 J9 HOUILLE BLANCHE BP 25 EP 28 PY 1998 VL 53 IS 2 GA ZC539 UT ISI:000072590500009 ER PT J AU Hageback, J Sundberg, J Ostwald, M Chen, DL Yun, X Knutsson, P TI Climate variability and land-use change in danangou watershed, China - Examples of small-scale farmers' adaptation SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 Univ Gothenburg, Dept Earth Sci, Gothenburg, Sweden. MIT, Dept Earth Atmospher & Planetary Sci, Cambridge, MA 02139 USA. China Meteorol Adm, Clin Studies Lab, Beijing, Peoples R China. China Meteorol Adm, Natl Climate Ctr, Beijing, Peoples R China. Beijing Normal Univ, Dept Resource & Environm Sci, Beijing 100875, Peoples R China. Gothenburg Univ, Sect Human Ecol, S-41124 Gothenburg, Sweden. RP Hageback, J, Univ Gothenburg, Dept Earth Sci, Gothenburg, Sweden. AB With global concern on climate change impacts, developing countries are given special attention due their susceptibility. In this paper, change and variability in climate, land use and farmers' perception, adaptation and response to change are examined in Danangou watershed in the Chinese Loess Plateau. The first focus is to look at how climate data recorded at meteorological stations recently have evolved, and how farmers perceived these changes. Further, we want to see how the farmers respond and adapt to climate variability and what the resulting impact on land use is. Finally, other factors causing change in land use are considered. Local precipitation and temperature instrumental data and interview data from farmers were used. The instrumental data shows that the climate is getting warmer and drier, the latter despite large interannual variability. The trend is seen on the local and regional level. Farmers' perception of climatic variability corresponds well with the data record. During the last 20 years, the farmers have become less dependent on agriculture by adopting a more diversified livelihood. This adaptation makes them less vulnerable to climate variability. It was found that government policies and reforms had a stronger influence on land use than climate variability. Small-scale farmers should therefore be considered as adaptive to changing situations, planned and non-consciously planned. 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R2561DOE RAND CORP SCHWING RC, 1980, SOC RISK ASSESSMENT SHAPO M, 1979, NATION GUINEA PIGS U SIDDALL E, 1981, AECL7404 AT EN CAN L SINCLAIR C, 1972, INNOVATION HUMAN RIS SLOVIC P, 1979, ENVIRONMENT, V21, P14 SLOVIC P, 1979, ENVIRONMENT, V21, P36 SLOVIC P, 1980, PRODUCT LABELING HLT SLOVIC P, 1981, HEALTH PHYS, V41, P589 STARR C, 1969, SCIENCE, V165, P1232 THOMAS K, 1980, BEHAV SCI, V25, P332 TURNER JS, 1976, CHEM FEAST VISCUSI WK, 1983, RISK CHOICE VLEK C, 1981, ORGAN BEHAV HUM PREF, V28, P235 WHYTE AV, 1980, SCOPE15 SCI COMM PRO WILSON R, 1979, TECHNOL REV, V81, P41 NR 129 TC 17 J9 PROC NAT ACAD SCI US-PHYS SCI BP 7027 EP 7038 PY 1983 VL 80 IS 22 GA RR497 UT ISI:A1983RR49700001 ER PT J AU Pingali, P Alinovi, L Sutton, J TI Food security in complex emergencies: enhancing food system resilience SO DISASTERS LA English DT Article AB This paper explores linkages between food security and crisis in different contexts, outlining the policy and institutional conditions needed to manage food security during a crisis and to rebuild the resilience of food systems in periods of relative peace. The paper reviews experiences over the past decade of countries in protracted crisis and draws lessons for national and international policy. It assesses the different alternatives on offer in fragile countries to address for example, the disruption of institutional mechanisms and the decreasing level of support offered by international donors with respect to longer-term expectations. It proposes a Twin Track Approach to enhance food security resilience through specific policies for protracted crises that link immediate hunger relief interventions with a long-term strategy for sustainable growth. Finally, the article analyses policy options and the implications for both short- and longer-term responses vis-a-vis the three dimensions of food security: availability; access; and stability. CR *FAO GIEWS, 2003, 2 FAO *FAO GIEWS, 2004, 3 FAO *FAO SOFA, 2000, STAT FOOD AGR 2000 C *FAO SOFI, 2002, STAT FOOD INS WORLD *FAO SOFI, 2003, STAT FOOD INS WORLD *FAO SOFI, 2004, STAT FOOD INS WORLD *FAO TCE, 1997, FAO EM ACT *FAO TCE, 2003, UNPUB FAO EM INT AFR *FAO, 2001, IND KNOWL KEY WEAP F *FAO, 2002, FAO NEWSR *ICG, 2001, 3 ICG *ICRC, 2004, ROOTS BEH WAR UND PR *UNAIDS, 1999, COMM FRAM HIV AIDS N *UNDG, 2005, OP NOT TRANS RES MAT *UNICER, 2003, AFR ORPH GEN *UNSG, FAC FUT TOG REP UN S *UNU, 2004, PROM AGR DEV SUPP PE *USIP, 2001, AIDS VIOL CONF AFR ABRAHAMSEN R, 2000, DISCIPLINING DEMOCRA ADEBAJO A, 2002, SIERRA LEONE FEAST S ALWANG J, 2001, VULNERABILITY VIEW D ANDERSON M, 2001, HARM SUPPORT PEACE W ARON J, 2002, 124 UNI WIDER, P1 BARNETT T, 2002, AIDS 21 CENTURY DIS BARNETT T, 2003, 197 ACP EU BERDAL M, 2000, GREEC GRIEVANCE EC A BERKES F, 2002, PANARCHY UNDERSTANDI, P121 BERNAL V, 2004, CULT ANTHROPOL, V19, P3 BROCA S, 2002, 415 ESA FAO CAMPBELL C, 2003, LETTING DIE HIV AIDS CAMPBELL C, 2004, HIV AIDS AFRICA BEYO, P144 CARRUTHERS S, 1999, MEDIA WAR COMMUNICAT CATE F, 2002, HUMANITARIAN AFFAIRS, P4 CHRISTOPLOS I, 2004, CHANGING ROLES AGR R CHRISTOPLOS I, 2004, STEP AGR POLICY AFGH CLARK K, 2004, NATION BUILDING UNRA, P83 COLLIER P, 2000, 2355 WORLD BANK COLLINSON S, 2003, 13 ODI HPG DANIEL E, 1996, MISTRUSTING REFUGEES DESOYSA I, 1999, 199 PRIO DEVEREUX S, 2000, 105 IDS DEWAAL A, 1997, FAMINE CRIMES POLITI DEWAAL A, 2001, NY TIMES 1119, A31 DOLLAR D, 2004, 3299 WORLD BANK DONINI A, 2004, NATL BUILDING UNRAVE DUFFIELD M, 1994, TROOPS TANKS HUMANIT DUFFIELD M, 2001, GLOBAL GOVEERNANCE N DUFOUR C, 2005, UNPUB FOOD SECURITY ELMEKKI AG, 1999, ECOLOGY POLITICS VIO, P228 ESCOBAR A, 1995, ENCOUNTERING DEV MAK FLORES M, 2004, 402 FAO GERMAN T, 2002, RICHER MEANER REALIT, P146 GERMAN T, 2003, GLOBAL HUMANITARIAN GERMAN T, 2004, GLOBAL HUMANITARIAN GIUSTOZZI A, 2003, 33 LOND SCH EC POL S GIUSTOZZI A, 2004, 51 LSE GOREUX L, 2001, CONFLICT DIAMONDS GREEN P, 2004, STATE CRIME GOVERNME HARVEY P, 1998, 60 IDS HARVEY P, 2004, 16 HPG HORST C, 2002, FORCED MIGRATION REV, V14, P12 JOHNECHECIK W, 2005, UNPUB FOOD SECURITY KLARE M, 2001, RESOURCE WARS NEW LA KORF B, 2002, GATEKEEPER SERIES, V106 LAU FS, 2003, HONG KONG MONETARY A LAUTZE S, 2002, FAO INT WORKSH FOOD LAUTZE S, 2002, QAHT POOL CASH FAMIN LEBILLON P, 2000, 33 HPN LEBILLON P, 2003, J INT DEV, V15, P413 LOVENDAL C, 2005, UNPUB TOMORROWS HUNG LUNDE L, 2003, COMMERCE CRIME REGUL MACGAFFEY J, 1991, REAL EC ZAIRE CONTRI MACRAE J, 2004, 18 ODI MAIMBO S, 2003, MONEY EXCHANGE DEALE MALONE D, 2004, WIDER DEV C MAK PEAC MANSFIELD D, 2004, UN OFF DRUGS CRIM UN MESSER EM, 2001, CONFLICT CAUSE EFFEC, V7, P1 MINEAR L, 1996, NEWS MED CIVIL WAR H MOELLER S, 1999, COMPASSION FATIGUE M MOHAMED EA, 2001, SOMALIA DEGRADING EN MUBARAK JA, 1997, WORLD DEV, V25, P2027 MWANASALI M, 2000, GREED GRIEVANCE EC A, P137 NEUMANN R, 2001, VIOLENT ENV, P305 OGRADA C, 1999, BLACK 47 BEYOND GREA OHLSSON L, 2000, LIVELIHOOD CONFLICTS PAIN A, 2005, UNPUB FOOD SECURITY PELUSO N, 2001, VIOLENT ENV QAMAR M, 2003, FACING CHALLENGE HIV RENO W, 2000, GREED GRIEVANCE EC A, P43 RICHARDS P, 2001, VIOLENT ENV, P65 ROBINSON P, 2002, CNN EFFECT MYTH NEWS SCHEFFER M, 2000, ECOSYSTEMS, V3, P451 SEN AK, 1981, POVERTY FAMINES ESSA, V1, P1 TEODOSIJEVIC S, 2003, 311 FAO TERRY F, 2002, CONDEMNED REPEAT PAR WATTS M, 1983, SILENT VIOLENCE FOOD WATTS MJ, 1993, PROG HUM GEOG, V17, P43 WEBB P, 2003, ADDRESSING FOOD INSE WILY AL, 2003, LAND RIGHTS CRISIS WISNER B, 2003, 3 INT S INT DIS RISK WISNER B, 2004, RISK NATURAL HAZARDS WISNER B, 2005, TRACKING VULNERABILI NR 102 TC 1 J9 DISASTERS BP S5 EP S24 PY 2005 PD JUN VL 29 GA 936EV UT ISI:000229839200002 ER PT J AU Tol, RSJ Downing, TE Kuik, OJ Smith, JB TI Distributional aspects of climate change impacts SO GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS LA English DT Article C1 Univ Hamburg, Ctr Marine & Climate Res, D-20146 Hamburg, Germany. Vrije Univ Amsterdam, Inst Environm Studies, NL-1081 HV Amsterdam, Netherlands. Carnegie Mellon Univ, Ctr Integrated Study Human Dimens Global Change, Pittsburgh, PA 15213 USA. Oxford Off, Stockholm Environm Inst, Oxford, England. Stratus Consulting Inc, Boulder, CO USA. RP Tol, RSJ, Univ Hamburg, Ctr Marine & Climate Res, Bundesstr 55, D-20146 Hamburg, Germany. AB Climate change is likely to impact more severely on the poorer people of the world, because they are more exposed to the weather, because they are closer to the biophysical and experience limits of climate, and because their adaptive capacity is lower. Estimates of aggregated impacts necessarily make assumptions on the relative importance of sectors, countries and periods; we propose to make these assumption explicit. We introduce a Gini coefficient for climate change impacts, which shows the distribution of impacts is very skewed in the near future and will deteriorate for more than a century before becoming more egalitarian. Vulnerability to climate change depends on more than per capita income alone, so that the geographical pattern of vulnerability is complex, and the relationship between vulnerability and development non-linear and non-monotonous. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *US COUNT STUD PRO, 1999, CLIM CHANG MIT VULN *US NAT ASS SYNT T, 2000, CLIM CHANG IMP US, P1 ARROW KJ, 1996, INTERTEMPORAL EQUITY AZAR C, 1996, ECOL ECON, V19, P169 AZAR C, 1999, ENVIRON RESOUR ECON, V13, P249 CALLAWAY J, 2004, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V14, P275 CLINE WR, 1992, EC GLOBAL WARMING DOWNING TE, 1996, FULL FUEL CYCLE STUD, P1 DOWNING TE, 1996, PROJECTED COSTS CLIM DOWNING TE, 1997, MITIGATION ADAPTATIO, V2, P19 DOWNING TE, 1998, CLIMAGE CHANGE RISK DOWNING TE, 2003, CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPT FANKHAUSER S, 1995, VALUING CLIMATE CHAN FANKHAUSER S, 1996, ENERG POLICY, V24, P665 FANKHAUSER S, 1997, ENVIRON RESOUR ECON, V10, P249 FANKHAUSER S, 1997, MITIGATION ADAPTATIO, V1, P385 FANKHAUSER S, 1998, ENVIRON DEV ECON, V3, P59 FANKHAUSER S, 1999, ECOL ECON, V30, P67 HITZ S, 2004, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V14, P201 HOOZEMANS FMJ, 1993, GLOBAL VULNERABILITY MAHLMAN JD, 1997, SCIENCE, V278, P1416 MENDELSOHN R, 1999, AMBIO, V28, P362 MENDELSOHN RO, 1998, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P553 NICHOLLS RJ, 2003, ENVEPOCGSP20039FINAL NORDHAUS WD, 1991, ECON J, V101, P920 NORDHAUS WD, 1994, AM SCI, V82, P45 NORDHAUS WD, 2000, WARMING WORLD EC MOD PARRY ML, GLOBAL ENV CHANGE, V9, P1 PARRY ML, 2001, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V11, P181 PEARCE DW, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, P179 PORTNEY PR, 1999, DISCOUNTING INTERGEN SCHNEIDER SH, 2004, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V14, P247 SMIT B, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, P877 SMITH JB, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, P913 SOHNGEN B, 1998, AMBIO, V27, P509 SOHNGEN B, 1999, IMPACT CLIMATE CHANG, P94 TOL R, 1999, FAIR WEATHER EQUITY, P65 TOL RSJ, 1995, ENVIRON RESOUR ECON, V5, P353 TOL RSJ, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE INTEG, P167 TOL RSJ, 1996, ECOL ECON, V19, P67 TOL RSJ, 1997, ENVIRON MODEL ASSESS, V2, P151 TOL RSJ, 1998, ENERG POLICY, V26, P13 TOL RSJ, 1998, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V8, P109 TOL RSJ, 1999, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V41, P351 TOL RSJ, 1999, ENERGY J SPECIAL ISS, P130 TOL RSJ, 1999, ENERGY J, V20, P61 TOL RSJ, 1999, ENVIRON RESOUR ECON, V14, P33 TOL RSJ, 1999, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V9, P221 TOL RSJ, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V46, P357 TOL RSJ, 2000, WORLD ECON, V1, P179 TOL RSJ, 2001, ECOL ECON, V36, P71 TOL RSJ, 2001, INTEGRATED ASSESSMEN, V2, P173 TOL RSJ, 2001, POLLUTION ATMOSPHERI, P155 TOL RSJ, 2002, CLIMATE DEV MALARIA TOL RSJ, 2002, ENERG ECON, V24, P367 TOL RSJ, 2002, ENVIRON RESOUR ECON, V21, P135 TOL RSJ, 2002, ENVIRON RESOUR ECON, V21, P47 TOL RSJ, 2003, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V56, P265 TOL RSJ, 2003, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V57, P71 WIGLEY T, 2003, ENVEPOCGSP20037FINAL YOHE GW, 1996, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V32, P387 YOHE GW, 2002, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V12, P25 YOHE GW, 2002, J ECON GEOGR, V2, P311 YOHE GW, 2004, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V14, P285 NR 64 TC 0 J9 GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANGE BP 259 EP 272 PY 2004 PD OCT VL 14 IS 3 GA 854EQ UT ISI:000223884300007 ER PT J AU Kallioras, A Pliakas, F Diamantis, I TI Conceptual model of a coastal aquifer system in northern Greece and assessment of saline vulnerability due to seawater intrusion conditions SO ENVIRONMENTAL GEOLOGY LA English DT Article C1 Democritus Univ Thrace, Dept Civil Engn, GR-67100 Xanthi, Greece. RP Kallioras, A, Democritus Univ Thrace, Dept Civil Engn, GR-67100 Xanthi, Greece. AB This paper refers to the development of a conceptual model for the management of a coastal aquifer in northern Greece. The research presents the interpretation and analysis of the quantitative (groundwater level recordings and design of piezometric maps) regime and the formation of the upcone within the area of investigation. Additionally it provides the elaboration of the results of chemical analyses of groundwater samples (physicochemical parameters, major chemical constituents and heavy metals and trace elements) of the area which were taken in three successive irrigation periods (July-August 2003, July-August 2004 and July 2005), in order to identify areas of aquifer vulnerability. The study identifies the areas where ion exchange phenomena occur, as well as the parts of the aquifer where the qualitative degradation of the aquifer system is enhanced. The paper, finally, assesses the lack of any scientific groundwater resources management of the area by the local water authorities, as well as the current practices of the existing pumping conditions scheme as applied by groundwater users. CR APPELO CAJ, 1993, GEOCHEMISTRY GROUNDW, P536 BARAZZUOLI P, 1999, ENVIRON GEOL, V39, P123 CALVACHE ML, 1997, ENVIRON GEOL, V30, P215 CHIOCCHINI U, 1997, ENVIRON GEOL, V32, P1 DIAMANTIS I, 1985, THESIS DEMOCRITUS U DIAMANTIS I, 1994, TECHNICAL REPORT REG, V4, P393 DIAMANTIS J, 1989, TOXICOL ENVIRON CHEM, V20, P291 ELASSWARD RM, 1995, AMBIO, V24, P324 ELBIHERY MA, 1994, ENVIRON GEOL, V24, P293 GIMENEZ E, 1997, ENVIRON GEOL, V29, P118 GUALBERT HPO, 2001, DENSITY DEPENDENT GR IRIBAR V, 1997, J HYDROL, V198, P226 KALLERGIS G, 2000, APPL ENV HYDROGEOLOG, V2, P327 KALLIORAS A, 2002, THESIS DEMOCRITUS U KALLIORAS A, 2004, NOMIKI BIBLIOTHIKI, V4, P480 KALLIORAS A, 2005, 7 HELL HYDR C HELL C, P163 KALLIORAS A, 2006, IN PRESS J ENV SCI H KARAHANOGLU N, 1997, WATER ENVIRON RES, V69, P331 PLIAKAS F, 2004, P 10 INT C GEOL SOC, P2057 PULIDOBOSCH A, 1999, WATER AIR SOIL POLL, V114, P323 STIGTER TY, 1998, J HYDROL, V208, P262 YAKIREVICH A, 1998, HYDROGEOL J, V6, P549 NR 22 TC 0 J9 ENVIRON GEOL BP 349 EP 361 PY 2006 PD NOV VL 51 IS 3 GA 114NE UT ISI:000242672100003 ER PT J AU MAGALHAES, AR TI SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT-PLANNING AND SEMIARID REGIONS SO GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS LA English DT Editorial Material AB The semi-arid regions of the developing countries are the most vulnerable regions of the world in regard to environmental and socio-economic conditions. If is likely that a business-as-usual scenario will show increased vulnerability in the future, with growing population and land use intensifying the pressure on land and wafer resources. Such an unsustainable path must be diverted to one of greater sustainability. This is especially difficult because of the immediate problems relating to the basic needs of the population. In this article, a methodology is discussed whereby global environmental and climate change issues are integrated into a comprehensive planning approach designed to pursue a more sustainable economic, social and environmental development. The methodological framework includes a number of steps or tasks dealing with the assessment of present sustainability, business-as-usual and alternative scenarios for one generation in the future, and vulnerability and impact assessments. The methodology should lead to the definition and implementation of a sustainable development strategy addressing current societal goals while taking into account local and global environmental change processes. CR 1990, IPCC 1ST ASSESSMENT, V1 1990, OVERVIEW CONCLUSIONS 1992, ICID DECLARATION FOR 1994, ESTRATEGIA DESENVOLV BITOUN J, IN PRESS CLIMATE CHA CAREY DI, 1993, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V3, P140 CLARK R, 1981, DOW30 RES DEP ENV RE CORNELIUS WA, 1994, TRANSFORMATION STATE DISWAS A, 1987, ENV IMPACT ASSESSMEN DOWNING TE, 1992, ICID P EDQ F BRAS, V1 HOLANDA N, 1992, ICID P E BRAZ F BRAS, V2 MAGALHAES AR, 1991, RESPOSTAS GOVERNAMEN MAGALHAES AR, 1992, REGIONS GLOBAL WARMI MAGALHAES AR, 1992, SOCIOECONOMIC IMPACT OSTROM E, 1990, GOVT COMMONS EVOLUTI PARRY ML, 1988, IMPACT CLIMATIC VARI, V2 PARRY ML, 1988, IMPACT CLIMATIC VARI, V2 RIBOT JC, 1996, CLIMATE VARIABILITY, V1, P1 ROSENBERG NJ, 1992, ICID P, V2 TENDLER J, 1993, NEW LESSONS OLD PROJ NR 20 TC 1 J9 GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANGE BP 275 EP 279 PY 1994 PD DEC VL 4 IS 4 GA QM608 UT ISI:A1994QM60800001 ER PT J AU Maxwell, S TI Food security: A post-modern perspective SO FOOD POLICY LA English DT Review RP Maxwell, S, UNIV SUSSEX,INST DEV STUDIES,FOOD SECUR UNIT,BRIGHTON BN1 9RE,E SUSSEX,ENGLAND. AB The paper explores post-modern currents in food security. It identifies three main shifts in thinking about food security since the World Food Conference of 1974: from the global and the national to the household and the individual; from a food first perspective to a livelihood perspective; and from objective indicators to subjective perception. It finds these shifts to be consistent with post-modern thinking in other spheres, and it draws on the wider debate to recommend food security policy which eschews meta-narratives in favour of recognizing diversity, providing households and individuals with choices which contribute to self-determination and autonomy. The current conventional wisdom on food security is reviewed and some post-modern amendments are suggested. Copyright (C) 1996 Elsevier Science Ltd. 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RP MacCracken, MC, Climate Inst, Washington, DC 20036 USA. AB The scientific evidence and understanding underpinning societal responsibility for the accelerating pace of climate change has become increasingly strong over the past hundred years. Although many nations have begun to take actions that have the potential to eventually slow the pace of change, contention over the issue continues in the United States, particularly in the nation's capital. A major cause appears to arise from different interpretations of the evidence arising from different perspectives on the issue, including those of the scientific, environmental, fossil-fuel generating, technological, economic and ethical communities. In addition, the public encounters a cacophony of intermixed perspectives from the media and elected officials. While each perspective provides some useful insights, each alone contributes to inhibiting development of the national political consensus needed to responsibly address climate change. Without leadership that balances and reconciles competing perspectives, it is unlikely that a sufficient limiting of emissions will be enacted to prevent significant changes in climate that will impose increasing challenges for those in both developing and developed nations. CR *ACIA, 2004, IMP WARM ARCT ARCT C *CCSP, 2003, STRAT PLAN US CLIM C *GAO, 2004, GAO04895T *NAST, 2000, CLIM CHANG IMP US PO *NRC, 1983, CHANG CLIM *PSAC, 1965, REST QUAL ENV *SCEP, 1970, MANS IMP GLOB ENV AS *SMIC, 1971, IN CLIM MOD REP STUD *USG, 2002, US CLIM ACT REP 2002 *WMO, 1985, PUBL WMO, V661 ARRHENIUS S, 1896, PHILOS MAG 5, V41, P237 BOYKOFF MT, 2004, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V14, P125 CALLENDAR GS, 1938, Q J ROY METEOR SOC, V64, P223 HOFFERT MI, 2002, SCIENCE, V298, P981 HOUGHTON J, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 MACCRACKEN MC, 1985, DOEER0235 MACCRACKEN MC, 1985, DOEER0237 MANNING M, 2004, WORKSH DESCR SCI UNC MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 METZ B, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 REVELLE R, 1957, TELLUS, V9, P18 NR 21 TC 2 J9 ENVIRON VALUE BP 381 EP 395 PY 2006 PD AUG VL 15 IS 3 GA 089VG UT ISI:000240908900012 ER PT J AU Mendelsohn, R TI The role of markets and governments in helping society adapt to a changing climate SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 Yale Univ, Yale FES, New Haven, CT 06511 USA. RP Mendelsohn, R, Yale Univ, Yale FES, 230 Prospect St, New Haven, CT 06511 USA. AB This paper provides an economic perspective of adaptation to climate change. The paper specifically examines the role of markets and government in efficient adaptation responses. For adaptations to be efficient, the benefits from following adaptations must exceed the costs. For private market goods, market actors will follow this principle in their own interest. For public goods, governments must take on this responsibility. Governments must also be careful to design institutions that encourage efficiency or they could inadvertently increase the damages from climate change. Finally, although in a few cases actors must anticipate climate changes far into the future, generally it is best to learn and then act with respect to adaptation. CR *VEMAP MEMB, 1995, GLOBAL BIOGEOCHEMICA, V9, P407 ADAMS R, 1993, REASSESSMENT EC EFFE ADAMS R, 1999, IMPACT CLIMATE CHANG ADAMS RM, 1990, NATURE, V345, P219 HOUGHTON J, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 HOWITT R, 2003, IMPACTS CLIMATE CHAN HURD BH, 1999, IMPACT CLIMATE CHANG JOYCE L, 1995, RM271 KAISER H, 1993, AGR DIMENSIONS GLOBA KAISER HM, 1993, AM J AGR ECON, V75, P387 LENIHAN JM, 2003, ECOL APPL, V13, P1667 LUND J, 2003, 031 U CAL MAKKI S, 2001, TB1892, P1 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 MELILLO JM, 1993, NATURE, V363, P234 MENDELSOHN R, 1997, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V37, P271 MENDELSOHN R, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P583 MENDELSOHN R, 2003, LAND ECON, V79, P328 MENDELSOHN R, 2004, INTEGRATED ASSESSMEN, V9, P315 NIELSON RP, 1992, LANDSCAPE ECOLOGY, V7, P27 PEARCE D, 1995, CLIMAGE CHANGE 1995, P179 PRENTICE IC, 1992, J BIOGEOGR, V19, P117 SMITH JB, 2003, BIODIVERSITY TOL RSJ, 1995, ENVIRON RESOUR ECON, V5, P353 WEISS H, 2001, SCIENCE, V291, P609 NR 25 TC 1 J9 CLIMATIC CHANGE BP 203 EP 215 PY 2006 PD SEP VL 78 IS 1 GA 083UY UT ISI:000240484900009 ER PT J AU Post, J Snel, M TI The impact of decentralised forest management on charcoal production practices in Eastern Senegal SO GEOFORUM LA English DT Article C1 Univ Amsterdam, Amsterdam Inst Global Issues & Dev Studies, Dept Geog & Planning, NL-1018 VZ Amsterdam, Netherlands. RP Post, J, Univ Amsterdam, Amsterdam Inst Global Issues & Dev Studies, Dept Geog & Planning, Nieuwe Prinsengracht 130, NL-1018 VZ Amsterdam, Netherlands. AB In accordance with Senegal's decentralisation policy, important forest management tasks, including the right to allocate charcoal production rights, have been transferred to rural councils. This paper investigates the impact of these institutional reforms on charcoal production practices using the environmental entitlement framework developed by Leach et al. [Environmental entitlements: dynamics and institutions in community-based natural resource management. World Development 27 (2) (1999) 225]. The councils have not been able to turn their new endowments into entitlements, because they lack sufficient strength and legitimacy. Informal institutions, notably the coalition between merchants, state agents and village chiefs, continue to run the charcoal business and are hardly affected by decentralisation efforts. Most rural people, especially those relying solely on agriculture for sustenance, do not benefit at all from the charcoal trade. They do suffer from the environmental costs it brings with it, however. Although tensions between pro-exploitation actors and pro-conservation actors are evident, the pro-exploitation actors' firm grip on the informal institutions will probably lead to a prolonged subversion of the laws that seek to enhance local control and to sustain the forest. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. CR ADAMOLEKUN L, 1988, LOCAL GOVERNANCE W A AGRAWAL A, 1999, J DEV AREAS, V33, P473 AGRAWAL A, 2001, WORLD DEV, V29, P1649 BERKES F, 1998, LINKING SOCIAL ECOLO, V1, P1 BLAIKIE PM, 1994, RISK NATURAL HAZARDS, V1, P1 BLAIKIE PM, 1998, LOOKING MAPS DARK DI BREEMER JPM, 1995, LOCAL RESOURCE MANAG BURGESS R, 1997, CHALLENGE SUSTAINABL DIETZ T, 1996, INAUGURAL ADDRE 0628 DILLINGER W, 1994, 16 WORLD BANK FEENY D, 1990, HUM ECOL, V18, P1 FINE B, 1998, DEV CHANGE, V28, P617 GELLAR S, 1990, FAILURE CENTRALISED, P130 GORE C, 1993, J DEV STUD, V29, P429 GROOT DT, 1995, 410100117 CTR ENV RE HELMSING AHJ, 2000, DECENTRALISATION ENA HESSELING G, 1996, SENEGAL GAMBIA HOBSBAWM EJ, 1996, DEV CHANGE, V27, P267 JACOBSON GA, 1997, J CLIN PHARM THER, V22, P119 KANTE B, 2000, DECENTRALISATION SEN LEACH M, 1999, WORLD DEV, V27, P225 LEFTWICH A, 1994, DEV CHANGE, V25, P363 OLOWU D, 1992, PUBLIC ADMIN DEVELOP, V12, P1 RIBOT JC, 1990, THESIS U CALIFORNIA RIBOT JC, 1995, INTEGRAL LOCAL DEV A RIBOT JC, 1995, WORLD DEV, V23, P1587 RIBOT JC, 1998, DEV CHANGE, V29, P307 RIBOT JC, 1999, AFRICA, V69, P23 RIBOT JC, 2000, PEOPLE PLANTS JUSTIC RICHARDS M, 1997, DEV CHANGE, V28, P95 RONDINELLI DA, 1989, DEV CHANGE, V20, P57 SCHUURMAN FJ, 1997, EUROPEAN J DEV RES, V9, P150 SEN AK, 1981, POVERTY FAMINES ESSA, V1, P1 SHARPE B, 1998, AFRICA, V68, P25 SNEL M, 2000, THESIS U AMSTERDAM THOMPSON H, 1999, J CONTEMP ASIA, V29, P187 VENGROFF R, 1997, POLITICAL REFORM FRA WIERSUM KF, 1999, THESIS AGR U WAGENIN NR 38 TC 1 J9 GEOFORUM BP 85 EP 98 PY 2003 PD FEB VL 34 IS 1 GA 643JM UT ISI:000180858200010 ER PT J AU Thumerer, T Jones, AP Brown, D TI A GIS based coastal management system for climate change associated flood risk assessment on the east coast of England SO INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF GEOGRAPHICAL INFORMATION SCIENCE LA English DT Article C1 Univ E Anglia, Sch Environm Sci, CSERGE, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. RP Thumerer, T, Univ E Anglia, Sch Environm Sci, CSERGE, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. AB To assess the implications of sea level rise along the English east coast, the Arc-Info GIS package was used to determine coastal vulnerability to flooding. Results from oceanographic and climatic research were combined with data on sea defences, elevation values, and patterns of landuse. A risk assessment model was developed to estimate hood return periods according to different climate change scenarios for the years 2050 and 2100. Flood risks were modelled as a function of the height and condition of sea defences, land elevations, and subsidence rates. The 'house equivalent' concept was used to estimate damage costs of flood events in a future climate-changed environment. For the year 2100 the model predicts significant increases in flood damage costs. However, the results indicate the considerable uncertainty associated with sea level rise predictions. Our findings may potentially be of both academic and practical interest, but will be of little practical significance to coastal managers and planners if they cannot use them. To illustrate how this might be facilitated, their incorporation into an easy to use prototype Decision Support System (DSS) is outlined. The development of such systems is possibly the next major challenge for the application of GIS technologies to the coastal zone. CR *MAFF, 1996, FLOOD COAST DEF *MAFF, 1998, SHOR MAN PLANS GUID BARTLETT DJ, 1994, AGI PUBLICATIOP, V3 BARTLETT DJ, 1997, MAR GEOD, V20, P137 BATEMAN I, 1991, EC APPRAISAL CONSEQU BOWER BT, 1998, OCEAN COAST MANAGE, V38, P41 CARNELL RE, 1997, REPORT CHANGES MID L DIMENT R, 1994, SURVEYOR 1110, P25 DIXON MJ, 1997, 112 PROUDM OC LAB DUNDERDALE J, 1998, W134 R D CRANF U DUVIVIER P, 1995, FLOOD DEFENCE STANDA GORNITZ V, 1995, EARTH SURF PROCESSES, V20, P7 GREEN DR, 1995, P COASTGIS 95 U CORK, P35 HAMRE T, 1997, MAR GEOD, V20, P121 HARLAND HJ, 1980, FLOODING E ENGLAND HICKEY RJ, 1997, GIS WORLD JUN, P54 HOUGHTON JT, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995 HULME M, 1995, ENERG POLICY, V23, P347 IRISH JL, 1998, COAST ENG, V35, P47 JOHNSTON RJ, 1991, CHANGING GEOGRAPHY U JONES AR, 1995, P INT S GIS COMP MAP, P165 LEGGETT DJ, 1996, INT J GEOGR INF SYST, V16, P103 LUCAS AE, 1996, GEOJOURNAL, V39, P133 MASLEN J, 1996, P ESRI EUR US C LOND MEADOWCROFT IC, 1995, DEV NEW RISK ASSESSM MEADOWCROFT IC, 1996, P 31 MAFF C RIV COAS OPENSHAW S, 1995, CENSUS USERS HDB PEARCE F, 1996, NEW SCI 1221, P14 RAAL PA, 1995, P COASTGIS 95 U CORK, P273 RICKETTS PJ, 1992, MAR POLLUT BULL, V25, P82 ROBERTS LEJ, 1990, 7 U E ANGL ENV RISK SHENNAN I, 1989, J QUATERNARY SCI, V4, P77 SHENNAN I, 1993, CLIMATE SEA LEVEL CH, P215 STEERS JA, 1953, GEOGR J, V119, P280 THIAENG C, 1997, HYDROBIOLOGIA, V352, P159 THUMERER T, 1998, THESIS U E ANGLIA NO TURNER RK, 1998, GEOGR J 3, V164, P269 ZEIDLER RB, 1997, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V36, P151 NR 38 TC 2 J9 INT J GEOGR INF SCI BP 265 EP 281 PY 2000 PD APR-MAY VL 14 IS 3 GA 294FM UT ISI:000085900700004 ER PT J AU Al Kuisi, M El-Naqa, A Hammouri, N TI Vulnerability mapping of shallow groundwater aquifer using SINTACS model in the Jordan Valley area, Jordan SO ENVIRONMENTAL GEOLOGY LA English DT Article C1 Univ Jordan, Fac Sci, Dept Appl Geol & Environm, Amman 11143, Jordan. Hashemite Univ, Fac Nat Resources & Environm, Zarqa, Jordan. RP Al Kuisi, M, Univ Jordan, Fac Sci, Dept Appl Geol & Environm, POB 430616, Amman 11143, Jordan. AB Jordan Valley is one of the important areas in Jordan that involves dense agricultural activities, which depend on groundwater resources. The groundwater is exploited from an unconfined shallow aquifer which is mainly composed of alluvial deposits. In the vicinity of the Kafrein and South Shunah, the shallow aquifer shows signs of contamination from a wide variety of non-point sources. In this study, a vulnerability map was created as a tool to determine areas where groundwater is most vulnerable to contamination. One of the most widely used groundwater vulnerability mapping methods is SINTACS, which is a point count system model for the assessment of groundwater pollution hazards. SINTACS model is an adaptation for Mediterranean conditions of the well-known DRASTIC model. The model takes into account several environmental factors: these include topography, hydrology, geology, hydrogeology, and pedology. Spatial knowledge of all these factors and their mutual relationships is needed in order to properly model aquifer vulnerability using this model. Geographic information system was used to express each of SINTACS parameters as a spatial thematic layer with a specific weight and score. The final SINTACS thematic layer (intrinsic vulnerability index) was produced by taking the summation of each score parameter multiplied by its specific weight. The resultant SINTACS vulnerability map of the study area indicates that the highest potential sites for contamination are along the area between Er Ramah and Kafrein area. To the north of the study area there is a small, circular area which shows fairly high potential. Elsewhere, very low to low SINTACS index values are observed, indicating areas of low vulnerability potential. CR *HUNT TECHN SERV, 1995, SOILS JORD, V1 *HUNT TECHN SERV, 1995, SOILS JORD, V2 *ISPANE, 1994, IRR WAT QUAL CENTR J *JICA, 1995, STUD BRACK GROUNDW D, P318 *SCS, 1972, NAT ENG HDB 4 *USAID, 1995, WAT QUAL IMPR CONS P *WAJ, 2004, INT FIL GROUNDW BAS ABED AM, 2000, GEOLOGY JORDAN, P571 ALKUISI M, 1998, THESIS U MUENSTER GE ALKUISI M, 2005, EFFECTS RECLAIMED WA BENDER F, 1974, GEOLOGY JORDAN CON S, V7 CAMPAGNONI A, 1997, P ISSS ITC C GEOINF CIVITA M, 1990, STUDI VULNERABILITA, V1, P13 CIVITA M, 1993, P 9 S PEST CHEM DEGR, P587 CIVITA M, 1994, TEORIA PRATICA CIVITA M, 1997, METODOLOGIA AUTOMATI, V60 MASRI A, 1963, GEOLOGICAL REPORT AM MCDONALD M, 1965, EAST BANK WATER RESO, V5 QUENNELL AM, 1951, COLON GEOL MIN RESOU, V2, P2 SALAMEH E, 1985, GEOL JB, C38 WOLFART R, 1959, GEOLOGY HYDROGEOLOGY NR 21 TC 0 J9 ENVIRON GEOL BP 651 EP 667 PY 2006 PD JUL VL 50 IS 5 GA 059OC UT ISI:000238741100004 ER PT J AU Huang, JCK Dixon, RK TI US country studies program: An example of bilateral assistance to developing countries on climate change SO OCEAN & COASTAL MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article RP Huang, JCK, US COUNTRY STUDIES PROGRAM,PO-63,1000 INDEPENDENCE AVE SW,WASHINGTON,DC 20585. AB Under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) developing and transition countries are eventually required to report greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions inventories and response (mitigation) options. The United States (US) and other donors are providing financial and technical support for climate change country studies to help meet their needs under the UNFCCC The US Country Studies Program (US CSP) was originally announced by President Bush at the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development (UNCED) in Brazil in 1992. The Program is currently assisting 56 country studies to address climate change. There are strong components of ocean and coastal assessment, adaptation and management in 41 of the 56 studies in the US CSP. All studies in the Program are implemented under respective bilateral cooperative agreements. Technical assistance for conducting GHG inventory, climate change impact vulnerability studies, and adaptation and mitigation assessments includes training of analysts, sharing of contemporary tools and assessment techniques, implementation of information-sharing workshops, and an exchange program for analysts. Emphases have been put on strengthening of human and institutional capacity to cope with global climate change issues, hence providing developing and transition countries with a sustained basis for meeting the goals of the UNFCCC. CR *UN, 1992, FRAM CONV CLIM CHANG *US DEP STAT, 1994, US CLIM ACT REP BOLIN B, 1994, AMBIO, V23, P25 BRUM FHG, 1994, AMBIO, V23, P98 HOUGHTON JT, 1992, SUPPLEMENTAL REPORT RAMOSMANE C, 1995, DOEPO0032 US DEP EN SATHAYE J, 1995, GREENHOUSE GAS MITIG NR 7 TC 0 J9 OCEAN COAST MANAGE BP 223 EP 230 PY 1995 VL 29 IS 1-3 GA VG574 UT ISI:A1995VG57400014 ER PT J AU Miles, EL Snover, AK Hamlet, AF Callahan, B Fluharty, D TI Pacific northwest regional assessment: The impacts of climate variability and climate change on the water resources of the Columbia River Basin SO JOURNAL OF THE AMERICAN WATER RESOURCES ASSOCIATION LA English DT Article C1 Univ Washington, Climate Impacts Grp, JISAO,SMA, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Seattle, WA 98105 USA. Univ Washington, Sch Marine Affairs, Seattle, WA 98105 USA. RP Miles, EL, Univ Washington, Climate Impacts Grp, JISAO,SMA, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, 4909 25th Ave NE, Seattle, WA 98105 USA. AB The Pacific Northwest (PNW) regional assessment is an integrated examination of the consequences of natural climate variability and projected future climate change for the natural and human systems of the region. The assessment currently focuses on four sectors: hydrology/water resources, forests and forestry, aquatic ecosystems, and coastal activities. The assessment begins by identifying and elucidating the natural patterns of climate variability in the PNW on interannual to decadal timescales. The pathways through which these climate variations are manifested and the resultant impacts on the natural and human systems of the region are investigated. Knowledge of these pathways allows an analysis of the potential impacts of future climate change, as defined by IPCC climate change scenarios. In this paper, we examine the sensitivity, adaptability and vulnerability of hydrology and water resources to climate variability and change. We focus on the Columbia River Basin, which covers approximately 75 percent of the PNW and is the basis for the dominant water resources system of the PNW. The water resources system of the Columbia River is sensitive to climate variability, especially with respect to drought. Management inertia and the lack of a centralized authority coordinating all uses of the resource impede adaptability to drought and optimization of water distribution. Climate change projections suggest exacerbated conditions of conflict between users as a result of low summertime streamflow conditions. An understanding of the patterns and consequences of regional climate variability is crucial to developing an adequate response to future changes in climate. CR *BONN POW ADM, 1991, COL RIV SYST INS STO *BONN POW ADM, 1994, DOEBPA2000 *BONN POW ADM, 1995, DOEEIS0170 *INT PAN CLIM CHAN, 1995, IMP AD MIT CLIM CHAN, V2 *INT PAN CLIM CHAN, 1995, SCI CLIM CHANG, V1 *NAT MAR FISH SERV, 1995, BIOL OPIN REIN CONS *US GEOL SURV, 1949, FLOODS MAY JUN 1948 ABDULLA FA, 1996, J GEOPHYS RES, V101, P7544 BENSON RD, 1995, ILLAHEE, V11, P29 BROECKER WS, 1987, NATURE, V328, P123 BROECKER WS, 1997, SCIENCE, V278, P1582 CALLAHAN B, 1999, IN PRESS POLICY IMPL CALLAHNA BM, 1997, POTENTIAL CLIMATE FO CROOK AG, 1993, LEVEL MODIFIED STREA CUBASCH U, 1992, CLIM DYNAM, V8, P55 DUFFORD W, 1995, ILLAHEE, V11, P29 GERSHUNOV A, 1998, B AM METEOROL SOC, V79, P2715 GRAY KN, 1999, THESIS U WASHINGTON HAMLET AF, 1999, IN PRESS AM SOC CIV HAMLET AF, 1999, IN PRESS J AM WAT RE ILLAHEE, 1995, J NW ENV, V11 JOHNS TC, 1997, CLIM DYNAM, V13, P103 JOHNSON RW, 1995, ILLAHEE, V11, P29 KOPKINS J, 1998, STATE CAN LIMIT ACCE LEE KN, 1995, BARRIERS BRIDGES REN, P214 LEHMAN R, 1995, ILLAHEE, V11, P29 LETTENMAIER DP, 1996, WATER MANAGEMENT IMP LEUNG LR, 1999, IN PRESS B AM MET SO LIANG X, 1994, J GEOPHYS RES, V99, P415 LOHMANN D, 1998, HYDROLOG SCI J, V43, P143 MANTUA NJ, 1997, B AM METEOROL SOC, V78, P1069 MATHEUSSEN B, 1999, IN PRESS HYDROLICAL MINOBE S, 1997, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V24, P683 NIJSSEN B, 1997, WATER RESOUR RES, V33, P711 PULWARTY RS, 1997, B AM METEOROL SOC, V78, P381 RASMUSSON EM, 1983, SCIENCE, V222, P1195 REDMOND KT, 1991, WATER RESOUR RES, V27, P2381 STEWART B, 1998, ANOTHER VANPORT FLOO TAYLOR SH, 1996, EUR HEART J, V17, P1 TRENBERTH KE, 1997, B AM METEOROL SOC, V78, P2771 WHITE R, 1995, ORGANIC MACHINE WOOD CA, 1993, FISHERIES, V18, P6 YEVDEVICH VM, 1963, FLUCTUATIONS WET D 1 ZHANG Y, 1997, J CLIMATE, V10, P1004 NR 44 TC 14 J9 J AM WATER RESOUR ASSOC BP 399 EP 420 PY 2000 PD APR VL 36 IS 2 GA 315LJ UT ISI:000087115000014 ER PT J AU Malheiro, A TI Geological hazards in the Azores archipelago: Volcanic terrain instability and human vulnerability SO JOURNAL OF VOLCANOLOGY AND GEOTHERMAL RESEARCH LA English DT Article C1 Lab Reg Engn Civil, P-9500343 Ponta Delgada, Acores, Portugal. RP Malheiro, A, Lab Reg Engn Civil, Rua S Goncalo S-No, P-9500343 Ponta Delgada, Acores, Portugal. AB The islands of the Azores archipelago are geologically young and located in a tectonically and volcanically active region. Not surprisingly, the islands are subject to many geological hazards, including earthquakes, landslides, and coastal erosion; some selected examples are discussed in this paper. As demonstrated by two recent earthquakes (1980, Terceira; 1998, Faial), the principal damage was related to one or more of these factors: (1) unsafe location of structures near faults; (2) unstable foundation soils; (3) poor quality of building materials and construction methods; (4) disregard of building codes; and (5) lack of building maintenance. Major landsliding events in the Azores (e.g., Ponta da Faja, Ribeira Quente, and Faja dos Cubres) typically are triggered by intense, long-duration precipitation and (or) earthquake-induced ground shaking. The loose, unconsolidated nature of the rocks and soils of these volcanic islands is another significant contributing factor, sometimes aggravated by ground instability caused by human activity. Coastal erosion is prevalent on the north coast of Sao Miguel and the south coast of Faial, mostly resulting from natural circumstances (e.g., steepness of cliffs, differential erosion, intense wave action during storms) and also from human activity (e.g., poorly engineered drainage works on cliff faces). Where severe, coastal erosion can pose a risk to populations and societal infrastructures situated near the tops of the seacliffs. To mitigate the risk of these and other geological hazards in the Azores, it is necessary to (1) prepare hazards and risks maps of the affected areas; (2) adopt prudent land-use planning that considers the hazards; (3) upgrade the building codes in the hazardous areas; (4) initiate slope-stabilization programs; (5) preserve the natural environmental integrity of the regions; and (6) educate the affected populace and governmental officials about the possibilities and consequences of hazardous processes. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. CR ALCOBIA S, 2001, 1 C PLAN GEST ZON CO BORGES P, 2001, PONTA DELGADO BORGES PJS, 1995, THESIS AZORES U PORT BORGGES PJS, 1997, ACOREANA, V8, P391 COLE PD, 1995, J VOLCANOL GEOTH RES, V69, P117 CORREIA MJ, 1992, MONOGRAFIA 10 ANOS A, V1, P127 GASPAR JL, 1997, 14DGUA97 AZ U GASPAR JL, 1997, P VOLC HAZ ASS MON R, P73 GREENWAY DR, 1992, SLOPE STABILITY GEOT, P187 GUEST JE, 1999, J VOLCANOL GEOTH RES, V92, P1 HIRN A, 1980, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V7, P501 JERONIMO GM, 1989, CORREIO ACORES LUCAS A, 1999, 4 ENC NAC SISM ENG S, P707 MACHADO F, 1966, CIENCIAS LISBOA, V10, P109 MADEIRA J, 1998, 1 S MET GEOF APMG LA, P81 MALHEIRO A, 1998, P VOLC HAZ ASS MON R, P82 MALHEIRO A, 1999, P 4 ENC NAC SISM ENG, P27 MANACAS E, 1992, MONOGRAFIA 10 ANOS A, V1, P223 NUNES JC, 1991, MICROSISMOS NEOTECTO NUNES JC, 1999, 4 ENC NAC SISM ENG S, P19 NUNES JC, 2001, 5 ENC NAC SISM ENG S, P119 OLIVEIRA CS, 1992, MONOGRAFIA 10 ANOS S, V1 OLIVEIRA CS, 1999, P 2 INT C EARTHQ GEO, V2, P779 PEREIRA P, 1997, 6 C NAC GEOT SOC POR, P515 POMONIS A, 1999, J VOLCANOL GEOTH RES, V92, P107 RUIZ R, 1994, 7 2NT IAEG C, P2059 SOEIRO A, 1992, MONOGRAFIA 10 ANOS A, V1, P313 TURRINI MC, 1998, ENG GEOL, V50, P255 VALADAO P, 2002, THESIS AZORES U PORT WASOWSKI J, 2000, ENG GEOL, V58, P291 NR 30 TC 0 J9 J VOLCANOL GEOTHERM RES BP 158 EP 171 PY 2006 PD AUG 1 VL 156 IS 1-2 GA 071ZW UT ISI:000239643400012 ER PT J AU Polsky, C Easterling, WE TI Adaptation to climate variability and change in the US Great Plains: A multi-scale analysis of Ricardian climate sensitivities SO AGRICULTURE ECOSYSTEMS & ENVIRONMENT LA English DT Article C1 Penn State Univ, Dept Geog, N Branch, NJ 08876 USA. Penn State Univ, Dept Geog, University Pk, PA 16802 USA. RP Polsky, C, Penn State Univ, Dept Geog, 1031 Route 28, N Branch, NJ 08876 USA. AB The Ricardian approach to estimating climate change impacts is an important technique for incorporating how adaptations modulate the overall effect. Past Ricardian work expresses climate sensitivities in terms of local effects only, ignoring the influence on adaptation of broader-scale social, environmental and economic factors. This paper extends the Ricardian approach to account for influences at multiple spatial scales. Results from multi-level modeling support the hypothesis that a county's Ricardian climate sensitivity is influenced not only by its climate but also by social factors associated with the climate of the agro-climatic zone in which it is located. The model estimates a non-linear, hill-shaped relationship between July maximum temperatures and agricultural land values, with initial increases beneficial in all counties but more beneficial in districts of high interannual temperature variability. Farmers and institutions in districts of high variability have therefore adapted to be more resilient to variability than farmers in areas of comparatively stable climate. However, the underlying reasons for this lessened vulnerability are unclear and may be associated with unsustainable land-use practices. Future research should investigate the precise form of these local and extra-local adaptations to determine if implementing the adaptations elsewhere would compromise agricultural system sustainability. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. CR *U TEX POP RES CTR, 1998, GREAT PLAINS POP ENV *USDA, 1995, AV VAL PER ACR FARM *USDOC, 2000, TABL CA1 3 PERS INC ANSELIN L, 1988, SPATIAL ECONOMETRICS ANSELIN L, 1998, HDB APPL EC STAT ANTLE JM, 1996, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V80, P67 BARNARD CH, 1997, AM J AGR ECON, V79, P1642 BRYK AS, 1992, HIERARCHICAL LINEAR CURRIE J, 1981, EC THEORY AGR LAND T DARWIN RF, 1999, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V41, P371 EASTERLING WE, 1997, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V7, P337 EASTERLING WE, 1998, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V90, P51 GARDNER BL, 1984, RISK MANAGEMENT AGR, P231 GEOGHEGAN J, 1998, PEOPLE PIXELS LINKIN GOLDSTEIN H, 1995, MULTILEVEL STAT MODE, V3 GUTMANN MP, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V44, P377 HANSEN JW, 2000, AGR SYST, V65, P43 HAYAMI Y, 1985, AGR DEV AGR PERSPECT HOX J, 1995, APPL MULTILEVEL ANAL JONE K, 1997, SPATIAL ANAL MODELLI KATES RW, 1985, CLIMATE IMPACT ASSES KAUFMANN RK, 1997, AM J AGR ECON, V79, P178 KREFT IGG, 1998, INTRO MULTILEVEL MOD LEWANDROWSKI JK, 1992, EC ISSUES GLOBAL CLI, P132 LOWRANCE R, 1986, AM J ALTERNATIVE AGR, V1, P169 MENDELSOHN R, 1993, COSTS IMPACTS BENEFI, P173 MENDELSOHN R, 1994, AM ECON REV, V84, P753 MENDELSOHN R, 1996, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V80, P55 MENDELSOHN R, 1999, IMPACT CLIMATE CHANG MOELLERING H, 1972, GEOGR ANAL, V4, P34 OLMSTEAD CW, 1968, P S QUANT METH GEOGR, P103 OSGOOD DW, 1995, EVALUATION REV, V19, P3 RAUDENBUSH S, 2000, HLM, V5 ROSENBERG NJ, 1987, GREAT PLAINS Q WIN, P22 ROSENBERG NJ, 1994, P 32 HANF S HLTH ENV ROSSUM S, 2000, PROF GEOGR, V52, P543 SCHNEIDER SH, 1997, ENVIRON MODEL ASSESS, V2, P229 SCHNEIDER SH, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P203 SEGERSON K, 1999, IMPACT CLIMATE CHANG SINCLAIR R, 1967, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V57, P72 SMIT B, 1996, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V33, P7 SMITHERS J, 1997, AGR RESTRUCTURING SU, P169 SNIJDERS TAB, 1999, MULTILEVEL ANAL INTR TURNER BL, 1991, INT SOC SCI J, V43, P669 TURNER BL, 1995, JOINT PUBLICATION IN VELDKAMP A, 1997, AGR SYST, V55, P1 WARRICK RA, 1980, CLIAMTIC CONSTRAINTS NR 47 TC 3 J9 AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON BP 133 EP 144 PY 2001 PD JUN VL 85 IS 1-3 GA 438PN UT ISI:000169062400009 ER PT J AU Mutton, D Haque, CE TI Human vulnerability, dislocation and resettlement: Adaptation processes of river-bank erosion-induced displacees in Bangladesh SO DISASTERS LA English DT Article C1 Univ Manitoba, Nat Resources Inst, Winnipeg, MB R3T 2N2, Canada. RP Haque, CE, Univ Manitoba, Nat Resources Inst, 70 Dysart Rd, Winnipeg, MB R3T 2N2, Canada. AB The purpose of this research was to identify and analyse patterns of economic and social adaptation among river-bank erosion-induced displacees in Bangladesh. It was hypothesised that the role of social demographic and socio-economic variables in determining the coping ability and recovery of the river-bank erosion-induced displacees is quite significant. The findings of the research reveal that displacees experience substantial socio-economic impoverishment and marginalisation as a consequence of involuntary migration. This in part is a socially constructed process, reflecting inequitable access to land and other resources. Vulnerability to disasters is further heightened by a number of identifiable social and demographic factors including gender, education and age, although extreme poverty and marginalisation create complexity to isolate the relative influence of these variables. The need to integrate hazard analysis and mitigation with the broader economic and social context is discussed. It is argued that the capacity of people to respond to environmental threats is a function of not only the physical forces which affect them, but also of underlying economic and social relationships which increase human vulnerability to risk. Hazard analysis and mitigation can be more effective when it takes into account such social and demographic and socio-economic dimensions of disasters. 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RP Forsyth, T, Univ London London Sch Econ & Polit Sci, Dept Geog, Inst Dev Studies, Houghton St, London WC2A 2AE, England. AB This paper introduces a special edition of Mountain Research and Development on integrating natural and social environmental science. In recent years, environment and development research has been rocked by discovering that so-called problems, such as Himalayan environmental degradation, or desertification, are not the problems researchers once thought. However, labeling these models as 'myths' is problematic because myths may either mean a demonstrably false statement or a socially constructed repository of local wisdom. This paper, and those following, present ways to combine both meanings of myth by integrating social and natural science, thus allowing critical debate about biophysical processes at the same time as acknowledging social constructions of environment. As such, this forms part of a growing trend towards adopting Cultural Theory the 'new' ecologies, and critical realism in environmental research, all of which provide alternatives to positivism or post-modern deconstruction of environmental discourse. Such research included adopting typologies of environmental perception, long-term environmental histories, 'hybrid' research combining social and natural science, and building local institutional capacity for integrating different environmental knowledge. It is argued that integrating natural and social environmental science is essential in order to avoid accepting environmental 'myths' uncritically, yet also to provide an epistemologically realist basis to local development. 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UNIV BARCELONA,DEPT ECOL,E-08028 BARCELONA,SPAIN. LOUISIANA STATE UNIV,DEPT OCEANOG & COASTAL SCI,BATON ROUGE,LA 70803. TECNOMARE SPA,R&D ENVIRONM,VENICE,ITALY. RP SanchezArcilla, A, CATALONIA UNIV TECHNOL,LAB ENGN MARITIMA,C GRAN CAPITA S-N,E-08034 BARCELONA,SPAIN. AB Global climatic change is taking place and it will likely affect Mediterranean deltas and other low-lying coastal regions in terms of sea-level rise, salinity increase and changes ill temperature and weather patterns. This will have serious implications because these deltas are very valuable in terms of natural resources and related economic activities. This study focuses on one of the northwestern Mediterranean deltas, namely that of the Ebro river. There is an enormous lack of information about and understanding of the integral functioning of this type of system. The objective of this ongoing study is to determine the vulnerability and response of this deltaic system to climate change, such that informed decision-making can be made. In order to do this it is proposed to make combined use of existing and new field measurements (sedimentation, soil formation and coastal fringe response) and an integrated (physical/ecological) conceptual model of deltaic behaviour. Using these tools, organized in relation to the interaction with socio-economic components, a number of intervention scenarios, aiming to cope with the effects of climate change, will be examined in a later stage of the research project. it is expected that these results will provide valuable information for integrated, comprehensive approaches to determine whether management plans are sustainable. Copyright (C) 1996 Elsevier Science Ltd. 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SO CLIMATE RESEARCH LA English DT Article C1 Univ Otago, Wellington Sch Med, Dept Publ Hlth, Wellington, New Zealand. RP Woodward, A, Univ Otago, Wellington Sch Med, Dept Publ Hlth, POB 7343, Wellington, New Zealand. AB Self-organising systems adapt to environmental change, and this ability modulates the relationship between specific exposures and outcomes. Vulnerability can be thought of as the sensitivity of the system to multiple exposures, taking into account the system's ability to adapt. This paper describes 5 causes of vulnerability to climate change in the Asia Pacific region: destructive growth, poverty, political rigidity, dependency and isolation. Impoverished populations are always at greater risk because they have fewer choices. However, rapid increases in population size, density of settlement and use of natural resources may also compromise responsiveness by damaging the buffering capacity of ecological systems against environmental adversity. Public health depends on a responsive social order. Political rigidity may have contributed to recent, severe impacts of climate-related disasters in parts of Asia. Dependency (such as reliance on others for information) is a potent cause of vulnerability because it justifies fatalism. Geographically isolated countries are tied firmly to international fortunes by the increased mobility of people and goads. Tn these modern circumstances remoteness may be a liability. Vulnerability to climate change win be shaped by many factors, but effects on health will undoubtedly be most severe in populations that are already marginal. For these populations, climate change is one further cause of 'over-load'. The problem of human-induced climate change is global in extent and is long term, but that should not deter policy-makers-measures taken to reduce the future impact of climate change will bring other benefits sooner. CR 1997, ASIA PACIFIC REV *INT FED RED CROSS, 1996, WORLD DIS REP 1996 *UN DEV PROGR, 1996, HUM DEV REP 1996 *UNEP, 1997, GLOB ENV OUTL, V1 *WORLD RES I, 1996, WORLD RES GUID GLOB AMADORE LA, 1996, WATER AIR SOIL POLL, V92, P1 BEGON M, 1990, ECOLOGY INDIVIDUALS CHEN RS, 1994, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V4, P3 DOWNING TE, 1992, 1 U OXF ENV CHANGE U DURIE M, 1994, WHAIORAMAORI HLTH DE FISCHER G, 1994, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V4, P7 FUKUMA Y, 1993, J METEOROL RES, V45, P159 HALES S, 1996, LANCET, V348, P1664 HOARE J, 1995, N KOREAN HOUGHTON JJ, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995 HUGO GJ, 1987, DEMOGRAPHIC DIMENSIO HUTCHING G, 1996, FOREST BIRD AUG, P14 LEAKEY R, 1996, 6 EXTINCTION LIFSON AR, 1996, LANCET, V347, P1201 MARTENS W, 1997, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V35, P146 MCGREGOR GR, 1990, UNEP REGIONAL SEAS R, V128, P25 MCMICHAEL AJ, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE HUMAN NUNN P, 1992, SPREP REPORTS STUDIE, V58 PARRY ML, 1993, LANCET, V342, P1345 PATZ JA, 1996, CLIMATE RES, V6, P113 PERNETTA JC, 1990, UNEP REGIONAL SEAS R, V128, P14 SEN AK, 1981, POVERTY FAMINES ESSA, V1, P1 TOMLINSON R, 1997, BRIT MED J, V314, P1147 WATSON RT, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, V1, P1 WEINSTEIN P, 1995, AUST NZ J MED, V25, P666 WILKINSON RG, 1997, BRIT MED J, V314, P591 NR 31 TC 8 J9 CLIMATE RES BP 31 EP 38 PY 1998 PD DEC 17 VL 11 IS 1 GA 168YF UT ISI:000078720200004 ER PT J AU Roncoli, C TI Ethnographic and participatory approaches to research on farmers' responses to climate predictions SO CLIMATE RESEARCH LA English DT Article C1 Univ Georgia, Ctr Res Environm Decis, Athens, GA 30605 USA. Univ Georgia, SE Climate Consortium, Athens, GA 30605 USA. RP Roncoli, C, Univ Georgia, Ctr Res Environm Decis, Athens, GA 30605 USA. AB This article synthesizes the state of the art in the application of ethnographic and participatory methods in climate application research, The review focuses on 2 aspects: (1) the cognitive and cultural landscape in which farmers' understanding of climate and climate information is grounded and (2) the decision-making processes and environment which shape farmers' adaptive strategies. The first part analyzes methods to elicit how farmers perceive and predict climate events and how these perspectives relate to scientific forecasts. It addresses the long-standing question of whether and how farmers understand the probabilistic nature of climate forecasts and how they assess the credibility and accuracy of such information. The second part examines approaches to characterizing the vulnerability of decision makers and to elucidating the configuration of options and obstacles that farmers face in using climate forecasts to mitigate risk. The complexities of farmers' decisions and the difficulties of identifying the exact role that climate predictions play (and, therefore, of directly attributing impacts to them) are taken into account. Finally, the review highlights efforts to transcend the localized focus of farmer-centered approaches in order to capture interactions across sectors and scales. The review concludes by proposing that climate application research move from a 'technology-adoption' paradigm to a broader perspective on vulnerability and adaptation. This shift will entail a cross-scale, multi-sited research design and an interdisciplinary mix of interactive and structured tools and techniques. It will also require that the analytical focus be expanded to encompass local communities and their multiple action spaces as well as the higher spheres of decision-making, where policy and science are shaped. 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O, 1987, SYSTEMATIC FIELDWORK WOLF D, 1996, FEMINIST DILEMMAS FI YOHE GW, 2002, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V12, P25 ZIERVOGEL G, 2003, AREA, V35, P403 ZIERVOGEL G, 2004, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V65, P73 ZIERVOGEL G, 2004, GEOGR J 1, V170, P6 ZIERVOGEL G, 2005, AGR SYST, V83, P1 NR 155 TC 0 J9 CLIMATE RES BP 81 EP 99 PY 2006 PD DEC 21 VL 33 IS 1 GA 127KO UT ISI:000243584900008 ER PT J AU Kvenvolden, KA TI Potential effects of gas hydrate on human welfare SO PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA LA English DT Article C1 US Geol Survey, Menlo Park, CA 94025 USA. RP Kvenvolden, KA, US Geol Survey, 345 Middlefield Rd,MS999, Menlo Park, CA 94025 USA. AB For almost 30 years. serious interest has been directed toward natural gas hydrate, a crystalline solid composed of water and methane, as a potential (i) energy resource, (ii) factor in global climate change, and (iii) submarine geohazard, Although each of these issues can affect human welfare, only (iii) is considered to be of immediate importance. Assessments of gas hydrate as an energy resource have often been overly optimistic, based in part on its very high methane content and on its worldwide occurrence in continental margins. Although these attributes are attractive, geologic settings, reservoir properties, and phase-equilibria considerations diminish the energy resource potential of natural gas hydrate. The possible role of gas hydrate in global climate change has been often overstated. Although methane is a "greenhouse" gas in the atmosphere, much methane from dissociated gas hydrate may never reach the atmosphere, but rather may be converted to carbon dioxide and sequestered by the hydrosphere/biosphere before reaching the atmosphere. Thus, methane from gas hydrate may have little opportunity to affect global climate change. However, submarine geohazards (such as sediment instabilities and slope failures on local and regional scales, leading to debris flows, slumps, slides, and possible tsunamis) caused by gas-hydrate dissociation are of immediate and increasing importance as humankind moves to exploit seabed resources in ever-deepening waters of coastal oceans. The vulnerability of gas hydrate to temperature and sea level changes enhances the instability of deep-water oceanic sediments, and thus human activities and installations in this setting can be affected. 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Univ Southampton, Sch Geog, Southampton SO17 1BJ, Hants, England. RP Treby, EJ, Bournemouth Univ, Sch Conservat Sci, Poole BH12 5BB, Dorset, England. AB The UK floods in late 2000 reinforced an emerging awareness which questioned the long-term sustainability of an exclusive reliance on hard-engineered flood defences to protect the UK population against increased flood risk. The debate has subsequently focused on a broader interpretation of the risks associated with flooding. This paper explores the notion that, although social and technical issues are already being integrated to understand and manage flood, practitioners are now realising the importance of accommodating public hazard understanding and perception of risk into their management models, and there remains a need to fit such ideas to the insurance-based system of flood management in the UK. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *ABI, 2001, FLOOD COAST DEF FUND *ABI, 2001, FLOOD PARTN APPR PRO *ABI, 2001, FLOODING PARTN APPR *ABI, 2002, ABI STAT PRINC PROV *ABI, 2002, REN PARTN HOW INS IN *ABI, 2003, ASS BRIT INS KEY FAC *ABI, 2005, SAF HOUS FLOOD RISK *BMRB SOC RES, 2001, RISK 2001 *CEC, 2004, FLOOD RISK MAN FLOO *DEFR, 2001, NAT APPR ASS RISK FL *DEFR, 2004, MAK SPAC WAT DEV NEW *DTLR, 2001, 25 LOC GOV REG DEP *ENV AG, 2001, LESS LEARN AUTUMN 20 *FAM EXP SURV, 1998, REP FAM EXP SURV 19 *FAM EXP SURV, 2001, REP FAM EXP SURV 200 ARNELL NW, 2000, FLOODS, P412 BALIKIE P, 1994, RISK NATURAL HAZARDS BERZ GA, 1997, ECLOGAE GEOL HELV, V90, P375 BLACK A, 1999, FLOOD DAMAGE UK NEW BROWN JD, 2002, T I BRIT GEOGR, V27, P412 BURBY RJ, 1998, COOPERATING NATURE C BURGESS K, 2000, ASSESSMENT EC VALUE CLARK MJ, 1998, GEOGR J 3, V164, P333 CLARK MJ, 2002, INSURANCE UK FLOOD S CRICHTON D, 1997, P 3 MAFF C COAST RIV, P131 CRICHTON D, 2001, IMPLICATIONS CLIMATE DLUGOLECKI A, 2000, GENEVA PAP RISK INS, V25, P582 DLUGOLECKI AF, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, P538 DOORNKAMP JC, 1995, T I BRIT GEOGR, V20, P68 EDEN S, 1996, PUBLIC UNDERST SCI, V5, P183 EISER J, 1986, SOCIAL PSYCHOL ATTIT EISER J, 1988, ATTITUDES DECISION EVANS E, 2004, FORESIGHT FUTURE FLO, V1 EVANS E, 2004, FORESIGHT FUTURE FLO, V2 EYE DJ, 1996, J INSURANCE I LONDON, V84, P14 FISHBEIN M, 1975, BELIEF ATTITUDE INTE GREEN C, 2004, GENEVA PAP R I-ISS P, V29, P518 HEWITT K, 1997, REGIONS RISK GEOGRAP, V1, P1 IRWIN A, 1996, MISUNDERSTANDING SCI KUNREUTHER HC, 1996, J RISK UNCERTAINTY, V12, P171 KUNREUTHER HC, 2001, J HAZARD MATER, V86, P171 MACKENZIEMOHR D, 2000, AM PSYCHOL, V55, P531 NATSIOS S, 1991, MANAGING NATURAL DIS, P111 PARKER D, 1997, RECONSRUCTION DISAST, P23 PARKER DJ, 1995, APPL GEOGR, V15, P341 PLATT RH, 1998, COOPERATING NATURE C, P29 PRIEST S, 2003, THESIS U SOUTHAMPTON PRIEST SJ, 2005, AREA, V37, P295 REITANO B, 1995, DEFENCE FLOODS FLOOD, P445 SMITH K, 2000, ENV HAZARDS ASSESSIN STERN PC, 2000, AM PSYCHOL, V55, P523 SZERSZYNSKI B, 1999, ENVIRON VALUE, V8, P239 TREBY EJ, 2004, COAST MANAGE, V32, P353 VISCUSI WK, 1996, ANN AM ACAD POLIT SS, V545, P106 WHITE I, 2002, J ENV PLANNING MANAG, V45, P735 WHYLEY C, 1998, PAYING PEACE MIND AC WYNNE B, 1996, MISUNDERSTANDING SCI, P19 ZIMBARDO P, 1977, INFLUENCING ATTITUDE NR 58 TC 0 J9 J ENVIRON MANAGE BP 351 EP 359 PY 2006 PD DEC VL 81 IS 4 GA 103YR UT ISI:000241923600005 ER PT J AU Roncoli, C Ingram, KT Kirshen, PH TI The costs and risks of coping with drought: livelihood impacts and farmers' responses in Burkina Faso SO CLIMATE RESEARCH LA English DT Article C1 Univ Georgia, Dept Crop & Soil Sci, Griffin, GA 30223 USA. Tufts Univ, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Medford, MA 02155 USA. Tufts Univ, Fletcher Sch Law & Policy, Medford, MA 02155 USA. RP Roncoli, C, Univ Georgia, Dept Crop & Soil Sci, 1109 Expt St, Griffin, GA 30223 USA. AB This paper analyzes the responses enacted by families of the Central Plateau in Burkina Faso during the year that followed a severe drought in 1997. We illustrate the agro-ecological and socio-economic contexts that shape livelihood options and constraints in an area characterized by high levels of climatic risk and low natural resource endowment. A description of farmers' perceptions and official accounts identifies key criteria whereby farmers formulate evaluations and predictions of a season. We document how food procurement and management practices are shaped by household resource access profiles and livelihood portfolios. Livelihood diversification, encompassing migration, non-farm work and social support networks, in addition to livestock production, is shown to be a critical dimension of adaptation. Livelihood and production adjustments entail costs and risks for most, but also gains for those who have the resources needed to take advantage of distress sales and high prices of agricultural commodities. Household livelihood and risk management increasingly hinge on efforts by household members who traditionally have had marginal access to resources, especially women, The research points to the need for closer integration of drought preparedness efforts, farmers' understanding of climate-crop interactions and interventions that bolster the capacity of resource-limited households to respond, Affordable grain, locally adapted seed varieties, labor saving technology and flexible credit are among the most needed inputs. 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RP Skole, DL, Michigan State Univ, Dept Geog, Ctr Global Change & Earth Observ, 101 Manly Miles, E Lansing, MI 48823 USA. CR *NRC, 1999, OUR COMM JOURN TRANS *NRC, 2001, GRAND CHALL ENV SCI *NRC, 2002, EARTH GEOGR INF SUST COLLINS JP, 2002, BIOSCIENCE, V52, P75 CUTTER SL, 2000, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V90, P713 GOODCHILD MF, 2000, INT REGIONAL SCI REV, V23, P139 LIVERMAN DM, 1999, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V89, P107 OBRIEN KL, 2003, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V93, P89 PFIRMAN S, 2003, COMPLEX ENV SYSTEMS SKOLE DL, 1994, BIOSCIENCE, V44, P314 TURNER BL, 2002, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V92, P52 TURNER BL, 2003, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V100, P8074 VOROSMARTY CJ, 2000, SCIENCE, V289, P284 WILBANKS TJ, 1999, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V43, P601 WRIGHT DJ, 1997, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V87, P346 NR 15 TC 2 J9 ANN ASSN AMER GEOGR BP 739 EP 743 PY 2004 PD DEC VL 94 IS 4 GA 880IZ UT ISI:000225784800008 ER PT J AU Greenough, G McGeehin, M Bernard, SM Trtanj, J Riad, J Engelberg, D TI The potential impacts of climate variability and change on health impacts of extreme weather events in the United States SO ENVIRONMENTAL HEALTH PERSPECTIVES LA English DT Article C1 US Ctr Dis Control & Prevent, Natl Ctr Environm Hlth, Div Environm Hazards & Hlth Effects, CDC, Atlanta, GA 30333 USA. Johns Hopkins Univ, Sch Hyg & Publ Hlth, Dept Environm Hlth Sci, Baltimore, MD USA. Natl Ocean & Atmospher Adm, Off Global Programs, Silver Spring, MD USA. Univ Delaware, Disaster Res Ctr, Newark, DE USA. RP McGeehin, M, US Ctr Dis Control & Prevent, Natl Ctr Environm Hlth, Div Environm Hazards & Hlth Effects, CDC, Atlanta, GA 30333 USA. AB Extreme weather events such as precipitation extremes and severe storms cause hundreds of deaths and injuries annually in the United States. Climate change? may alter the frequency, timing, intensity, and duration of these events. Increases in heavy precipitation have occurred over the past century. Future climate scenarios show likely increases in the frequency of extreme precipitation events, including precipitation during hurricanes, raising the risk of floods. Frequencies of tornadoes and hurricanes cannot reliably be projected. Injury and death are the direct health impacts most often associated with natural disasters. Secondary effects, mediated by changes in ecologic systems and public health infrastructure, also occur. The health impacts of extreme weather events hinge on the vulnerabilities and recovery capacities of the natural environment and the local population. Relevant variables include building codes, warning systems, disaster policies, evacuation plans, and relief efforts. There are many federal, state, and local government agencies and nongovernmental organizations involved in planning for and responding to natural disasters in the United States. Future research on health impacts of extreme weather events should focus on improving climate models to project any trends in regional extreme events and as a result improve public health preparedness and mitigation. Epidemiologic studies of health effects beyond the direct impacts of disaster will provide a more accurate measure of the full health impacts and will assist in planning and resource allocation. 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The microeconomics of non-timber forest product collection in the Brazilian Amazon SO LAND ECONOMICS LA English DT Article C1 Res Triangle Inst, Ctr Regulatory Econ & Policy, Res Triangle Pk, NC 27709 USA. N Carolina State Univ, Dept Forestry, Raleigh, NC 27695 USA. RP Pattanayak, SK, Res Triangle Inst, Ctr Regulatory Econ & Policy, Res Triangle Pk, NC 27709 USA. AB Tropical forests may contribute to the well-being of local people by providing a form of "natural insurance." We draw on microeconomic theory to conceptualize a model relating agricultural risks to collection of non-timber forest products. Forest collection trips are positively correlated with both agricultural shocks and expected agricultural risks in an event-count model of sun,ey data from the Brazilian Amazon. This suggests that households rely on forests to mitigate agricultural risk. Forest product collection may be less important to households with other consumption-smoothing options, but its importance is not restricted to the poorest households. CR *IBAMA, 1999, FLOR NAC TAP CAR PLA ALLEGRETTI MH, 1990, ALTERNATIVES DEFORES, P252 ALMEIDA MWB, 1996, CURRENT ISSUES NONTI, P119 ANDERSON A, 1990, ALTERNATIVES DEFORES ANDERSON JR, 1977, AGR DECISION ANAL BARHAM BL, 1999, UNASYLVA, V50, P34 BATABYAL AA, 2001, EC INT TRADE ENV BROWN K, 1999, WORLD FORESTS SOC EN, P262 BYRON N, 1999, WORLD DEV, V27, P789 CAMERON C, 1998, REGRESSION ANAL COUN CAVENDISH W, 2000, WORLD DEV, V28, P1979 CHIBNIK M, 1994, RISKY RIVERS EC POLI CLEMENT C, 1993, TROPICAL FORESTS PEO COLLINS EJT, 2000, AGRARIAN HIST ENGL 1, V7 COOMES OT, 1997, GEOGR J 2, V163, P180 COUTO CP, 1994, COMUNIDADES FLONA TA ELLIS F, 1993, PEASANT EC FARM HOUS FALCONER J, 1990, APPROPRIATE TECHNOLO, V17, P13 FAMINOW MD, 1998, CATTLE DEFORESTATION GODOY R, 1998, ETHNOLOGY, V37, P55 GODOY R, 2000, NATURE, V406, P62 GODOY RA, 1993, ECON BOT, V47, P215 GRIMES A, 1994, AMBIO, V23, P405 GURMU S, 1996, J BUS ECON STAT, V14, P469 HECHT S, 1988, HUM ORGAN, V47, P25 HIRAOKA M, 1992, CONSERVATION NEOTROP, P134 KOCHAR A, 1999, REV ECON STAT, V81, P50 KRAMER RA, 1997, LAND ECON, V73, P196 LIEBMAN M, 2001, ECOLOGICAL MANAGEMEN LONGWORTH JW, 2001, BEEF CHINA AGRIBUSIN MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 METZ B, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 MORAN E, 1974, MAN AMAZON MORDUCH J, 1995, J ECON PERSPECT, V9, P103 MORRIS J, 2001, RURAL PLANNING MANAG NEPSTAD D, 1992, NONTIMBER PRODUCTS T, V9 NEPSTAD D, 1999, FLAMES FOREST ORIGIN OGLE B, 1996, CURRENT ISSUES NONTI, P219 OLIVEIRA FA, 1993, RELATORIO MISSAO CON PARKER E, 1989, ADV EC BOT, V7 PEREZ MR, 1999, FOREST SCI, V45, P1 PERRINGS C, 1995, EC ECOLOGY BIODIVERS, P69 PETERS CM, 1989, NATURE, V339, P655 REDDY SRC, 1999, WORLD DEV, V27, P1141 RICHARDS E, 1993, NRI SOCIOECONOMICS S, V2 ROSENZWEIG MR, 1993, ECON J, V103, P56 RUSSELL CS, 2001, INVESTING WATER QUAL SCATENA FN, 1996, ECOL ECON, V18, P29 SCHWARTZMAN S, 1989, FRAGILE LANDS LATIN, P150 SCHWARTZMAN S, 2000, CONSERV BIOL, V14, P1351 SHIVELY GE, 1997, AGR ECON, V17, P165 SHYAMSUNDAR P, 1997, AMBIO, V26, P180 SMITH V, 1991, MEASURING DEMAND ENV, P89 SONKA ST, 1984, RISK MANAGEMENT AGR TAKASAKI Y, 2001, SOC NATUR RESOUR, V14, P291 WALKER R, 1996, ECOL ECON, V18, P67 WICKRAMASINGHE A, 1996, HUM ECOL, V24, P493 WINKELMANN R, 1997, ECONOMETRIC ANAL COU WOLLENBERG E, 2000, SOC NATUR RESOUR, V13, P777 ZORN CJW, 1998, SOCIOL METHOD RES, V26, P368 NR 60 TC 11 J9 LAND ECON BP 595 EP 613 PY 2001 PD NOV VL 77 IS 4 GA 503AQ UT ISI:000172775300010 ER PT J AU Matondo, JI Peter, G Msibi, KM TI Managing water under climate change for peace and prosperity in Swaziland SO PHYSICS AND CHEMISTRY OF THE EARTH LA English DT Article C1 Univ Swaziland, Dept Geog Environm Sci & Planning, Kwaluseni, Swaziland. Water Resources Branch, Mbabane, Swaziland. RP Matondo, JI, Univ Swaziland, Dept Geog Environm Sci & Planning, Private Bag 4, Kwaluseni, Swaziland. AB The enhanced greenhouse gas effect is expected to cause high temperature increase globally (1.0-3.5 degrees C) and this will lead to an increase in precipitation in some regions while other regions will experience reduced precipitation (+/- 20%). The impact of expected climate change will affect almost all aspects of human endeavour. The major focus of this paper is management of water resources under climate change for peace and prosperity in Swaziland. The impact of climate change on hydrology and water resources has been evaluated using general circulation model (GCM) results (rainfall, potential evapotranspiration, air temperature, etc.) as inputs to a rainfall runoff model. The evaluation of the effect of climate change on hydrology and water resources in Swaziland has been carried out in three catchments namely: Mbuluzi, Komati and Ngwavuma. MAGICC model was used to simulate the climate parameters for Swaziland given the baseline conditions. Eleven GCMs were evaluated and three of them were found to simulate very well the observed precipitation for Swaziland. These GCMs are: the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL), the United Kingdom Transient Resalient (UKTR) and the Canadian Climate Change Equilibrium (CCC-EQ). The three GCMs were used to project the temperature and precipitation changes for Swaziland for year 2075. This information was used to generate the temperature, precipitation and potential evapotranspiration values for the three catchments for year 2075. This information was used as input data to a calibrated WatBall rainfall runoff model. Simulation results (after taking into consideration water use projections) show a water deficit from June to September in both the Komati and Ngwavuma catchments and a water deficit from May to September in the Mbuluzi catchment. Efficient water utilization in the agricultural sector (i.e., using drip irrigation) gives a water savings of 33.6 x 10(6) m(3) per year (1.065 m(3)/s), 47.6 x 10(6) m(3) per year (1.509 m(3)/s) and 16.8 x 10(6) m(3) per year (0.533 m(3)/s) in the Komati, Mbuluzi and Ngwavurna catchments, respectively. The saved water could be used for other economic activities and meeting Swaziland's water release obligations to downstream riparian states of South Africa and Mozambique. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *IPCC, 1990, CLIM CHANG IPCC SCI WATSON RT, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, V1, P1 *WMO ICSU UNEP, 1989, FULL RANG RESP ANT C KUNZ RP, 1993, THESIS U NATAL PIETE MATONDO JI, 2001, UNISWA J AGR SCI TEC, V4, P135 MATONDO JI, 2004, PHYS CHEM EARTH, V29, P1193 MILLER BA, 1989, P 1989 NATL C HYDR E MURDOCH G, 1970, SOILS LAND CAPABILIT SHAAKEE JC, 1989, P 1989 NATL C HYDR E SHRYOCK HS, 1976, METHODS MAT DEMOGRAP STRZEPEK KM, 1996, WATER RES MANAGEMENT YATES D, 1994, COMPAR WATER BALANCE NR 12 TC 0 J9 PHYS CHEM EARTH BP 943 EP 949 PY 2005 VL 30 IS 11-16 GA 981DJ UT ISI:000233067200042 ER PT J AU Dominey-Howes, D Papathoma, M TI Validating a tsunami vulnerability assessment model (the PTVA model) using field data from the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami SO NATURAL HAZARDS LA English DT Article C1 Macquarie Univ, Dept Phys Geog, Sydney, NSW 2109, Australia. Univ Technol, Dept Photogrammetry & Remote Sensing, A-1040 Vienna, Austria. RP Dominey-Howes, D, Macquarie Univ, Dept Phys Geog, Sydney, NSW 2109, Australia. AB The "PTVAM" tsunami vulnerability assessment model [Papathoma and Dominey-Howes: 2003, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. 3, 733-744; Papathoma et al.: 2003, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. 3, 377-389], like all models, requires validation. We use the results from post-tsunami surveys in the Maldives following the December 26, 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami to 'evaluate' the appropriateness of the PTVAM attributes to understanding spatial and temporal vulnerability to tsunami damage and loss. We find that some of the PTVAM attributes are significantly important and others moderately important to understanding and assessing vulnerability. Some attributes require further investigation. Based upon the ground-truth data, we make several modi. cations to the model framework and propose a revised version of the PTVAM (PTVAM 2). CR ALEXANDER D, 2000, CONFRONTING CATASTRO CHANG NB, 1997, COMPUTERS ENV URBAN, V21, P67 CHEUNG KF, 2003, OCEAN ENG, V30, P1353 CONTINI S, 2000, J HAZARD MATER, V78, P223 ESOGBUE AO, 1996, FUZZY SET SYST, V81, P169 FISCHER T, 2002, ENG STRUCT, V24, P979 GAMBOLATI G, 2002, MATH COMPUT MODEL, V35, P963 JENKINS L, 2000, EUR J OPER RES, V121, P275 PAPATHOMA M, 2003, NAT HAZARD EARTH SYS, V3, P377 PAPATHOMA M, 2003, NAT HAZARDS EARTHS S, V3, P733 PAPATHOMA M, 2003, THESIS COVENTRY U UK PEARSON H, 2005, NATURE, V433, P94 PETERS J, 1999, SOC SCI MED, V49, P1551 PIDD M, 1996, EUR J OPER RES, V90, P413 TUFEKCI S, 1995, SAFETY SCI, V20, P39 WILLIAMS N, 2005, CURR BIOL, V15, R73 WISNER B, 2004, RISK NATURAL HAZARDS ZERGER A, 2002, APPL GEOGR, V22, P307 NR 18 TC 0 J9 NATURAL HAZARDS BP 113 EP 136 PY 2007 PD JAN VL 40 IS 1 GA 125NR UT ISI:000243449300006 ER PT J AU Odihi, JO TI Land use and misuse and the Ibadan flood problems: 1955-1980 SO DISCOVERY AND INNOVATION LA English DT Review C1 Univ Brunei Darussalam, Dept Geog, BE-1410 Nagara, Brunei. RP Odihi, JO, Univ Brunei Darussalam, Dept Geog, Bendar Seri Begawan, BE-1410 Nagara, Brunei. AB This study investigates the problem of floods in the city of Ibadan, Nigeria, during the period 1955-1980. Historically, Ibadan City began on hilltop locations for security reasons and grew rapidly down the slopes and flood plains adjoining the hills. With this varied topography and the heightened tempo of urbanisation with its attendant hydrological consequences in this region of relatively heavy annual torrential rainfall, have come flood problems that devastate the city on a more or less annual basis. The flood occurrence lag, the topographical opposites, environmental impact of urbanisation and the cultural context in which all these occur provide an interesting test-case for studies in flooding. The present study used a combined method of hydrological and socio-economic inquiry to investigate flood problems of the city of Ibadan. Specifically, it used rainfall data, historical reconstruction of land use by means of air photo interpretation among others, and runoff prediction by means of curve numbers (CN) to understand the flood-problem of the urbanising watershed. The effects of the floods were captured through questionnaires and interview schedules with various users of the flood plain, city planners and other relevant professionals. Flood frequency, magnitude and hazards that wasted the city in terms of human, property and biodiversity losses increased with increasing conversion of land from the more compatible forestry use to urban uses. For example, such uses as residential, industrial, institutional and recreational, and infrastructural development (e.g. roads) make soil surface impervious and generate much runoff. It was also found that the flood problem in the city has been worsened by flood plain encroachment by residential development and businesses, poor spacing of houses, careless and uncontrolled refuse dumping and widespread poverty that make people inhabit flood-prone areas. It is recommended that the seriousness and complexity of the flood problem in the city require an integrated approach that attacks the root causes of hazard proneness of the victims as well as addresses both the cultural habits that promote flood hazards and the effects they cause. Such an approach requires the co-operation of the individual victims or users of the flood-prone zones, estate developers and the government to control the flood hazard of the city. It also requires improvement in weather services, especially flood warnings that will help to reduce hazard from floods. 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Humboldt Univ, Inst Agr Econ & Social Sci, D-10099 Berlin, Germany. RP Welp, M, Potsdam Inst Climate Inpact Res, Dept Global Change & Social Syst, POB 601203, D-14412 Potsdam, Germany. AB Science-based stakeholder dialogues are structured communication processes linking scientists with societal actors, such as representatives of companies, NGOs, governments, and the wider public. Stakeholders possess knowledge needed by scientists to better comprehend, represent and analyse global change problems as well as decision-makers', managers' and other stakeholders' mental models. We will examine the relevance of three theoretical frameworks for science-based stakeholder dialogues in the context of sustainability science. These are Rational Actor Paradigm, Bayesian Learning and Organisational Learning. All three contribute to a better theoretical framework for dialogue practice and the understanding of stakeholders as actors in society and in research in particular. Furthermore, these theories are important for tool development. A combination of analytical and communication tools is recommended to facilitate stakeholder dialogues. The paper refers to examples of dialogue practice gained in the European Climate Forum (ECF). (C) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR 2003, ECONOMIST 1106 *EUR CLIM FOR, 2004, WHAT DANG CLIM CHANG *SUST LTD, 1996, ENG STAK, V1 *SUST LTD, 1996, ENG STAK, V2 BARLUND I, 2002, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V12, P219 BOHM D, 1996, DIALOGUE BOSTROM A, 1992, J SOC ISSUES, V48, P85 BOUDON R, 1996, RATION SOC, V8, P123 BREEN R, 1999, RATION SOC, V11, P463 CAIN J, 2001, PLANNING IMPROVEMENT CHRISTENSEN JH, 2003, NATURE, V421, P805 DELAVEGALEINERT.AC, UNPUB STAKEHOLDER DI DUNKERLEY D, 1998, CRITICAL PUBLIC HLTH, V8, P181 FREEMAN RE, 1984, STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT GARDNER GT, 1996, ENV PROBLEMS HUMAN B GARRISON RM, 2000, CLIMATE CHANGE COMMU HARRISON SR, 2000, NATURAL RESOURCES FO, V24, P11 HASSELMANN K, 2003, SCIENCE, V302, P1923 HELLSTROM E, 2001, SILVA FENNICA MONOGR, V2 HEMMATI M, 2002, MULTISTAKEHOLDER PRO INNES JE, 2003, DELIBERATIVE POLICY JAEGER CC, 1998, ENVIRON MODEL ASSESS, V3, P211 JAEGER CC, 1998, HUMAN CHOICE CLIMATE, V3 JAEGER CC, 2001, RISK UNCERTAINTY CHO JAEGER CC, 2001, RISK UNCERTAINTY RAT JAEGER CC, 2003, 86 PIK JESPER G, 1998, BUSINESS STRATEGY EN, V7, P213 JUST DR, 2001, ELECT SOURCE KAHANE A, 2002, STRATEGY LEADERSHIP, V30, P32 KAHANE A, 2004, SOLVING TOUGH PROBLE KASEMIR B, 2003, PUBLIC PARTICIPATION KASEMIR B, 2003, PUBLIC PARTICIPATION, P81 KATES RW, 2001, SCIENCE, V292, P641 LEMOS MC, 2005, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V15, P57 MATURANA HR, 1998, TREE KNOWLEDGE BIOL MILLER CA, 2004, STATES KNOWLEDGE COP, P46 MOSS S, 2001, INTEGRATED ASSESSMEN, V2, P17 PATT A, 2005, CR GEOSCI, V337, P411 PIHLSTROM S, 2001, AIER BRC S DEW MOD P PRESKILL H, 1999, ORG LEARNING LEARNIN PUTNAM H, 2002, COLLAPSE FACT VALUE RAHMSTORF S, 2005, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V68, P241 RAVETZ J, 2005, SCI CITIZENS, P43 RAYNER S, 2005, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V69, P197 REASON P, 2002, SYST PRACT ACT RES, V15, P169 RORTY R, 1991, OBJECTIVITY RELATIVI, P21 SENGE P, 1990, 5 DISCIPLINE ART PRA SENGE P, 2003, REFLECTIONS, V5, P1 SIMON HA, 1955, Q J ECON, V69, P174 STOLLKLEEMANN S, 2001, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V11, P107 VALLEJO N, 2004, GOVERNANCE MULTISTAK VANASSELT MBA, 2002, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V12, P167 VANDAALEN CE, 1996, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V6, P267 VANDENHOVE S, 2002, CLIM POLICY, V2, P3 VONNEUMANN J, 1947, THEORY GAMES EC BEHA WACK P, 1985, HARVARD BUSINESS SEP, P73 WEBLER T, 1995, FAIRNESS COMPETENCE, P35 WELP M, PROMISE LIMITS PARTI WELP M, 2001, 70 PIK WYNNE B, 1996, RISK ENV MODERNITY N, P44 WYNNE B, 2005, SCI CITIZENS GLOBALI NR 61 TC 0 J9 GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANGE BP 170 EP 181 PY 2006 PD MAY VL 16 IS 2 GA 051NM UT ISI:000238167800006 ER PT J AU JOHNSTON, DM TI VULNERABLE COASTAL AND MARINE AREAS - A FRAMEWORK FOR THE PLANNING OF ENVIRONMENTAL SECURITY ZONES IN THE OCEAN SO OCEAN DEVELOPMENT AND INTERNATIONAL LAW LA English DT Editorial Material RP JOHNSTON, DM, UNIV VICTORIA,CTR ASIA PACIFIC INITIAT,VICTORIA V8W 2YZ,BC,CANADA. AB Abstract The growing diversity of threats to the ocean environment keeps ocean management (or ''governance'') on the agenda of environmental diplomacy. Between 1968 and 1973 the UNCLOS III framework was developed in such a way as to permit, or even facilitate the zoning of vulnerable coastal and marine areas for at least eight different kinds of designated areas, through a combination of regimes and zones. A more holistic, ecological approach to ocean management has been advocated since the end of UNCLOS III, and received the imprimatur of world community approval through the adoption of Agenda 21 at the 1992 United Nations Conference on Environment and Development (UNCED). Five additional kinds of environmental zoning in the ocean are suggested by the ecological perspective adopted at UNCED. It is recommended that the major post-Rio purpose should be to convert the language of global environmental ethics into more specifically operational ideas that can be implemented at national and regional levels. 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RP Xiong, W, Chinese Acad Agr Sci, Inst Environm & Sustainable Dev Agr, Beijing 100081, Peoples R China. AB Identification of 'critical thresholds' of temperature increase is an essential task for inform policy decisions on establishing greenhouse gas (GHG) emission targets. We use the A2 (medium-high GHG emission pathway) and B2 (medium-low) climate change scenarios produced by the Regional Climate Model PRECIS, the crop model - CERES, and socio-economic scenarios described by IPCC SRES, to simulate the average yield changes per hectare of three main grain crops (rice, wheat, and maize) at 50 km x 50 km scale. The threshold of food production to temperature increases was analyzed based on the relationship between yield changes and temperature rise, and then food security was discussed corresponding to each IPCC SRES scenario. The results show that without the CO2 fertilization effect in the analysis, the yield per hectare for the three crops would fall consistently as temperature rises beyond 2.5 degrees C; when the CO2 fertilization effect was included in the simulation, there were no adverse impacts on China's food production under the projected range of temperature rise (0.9-3.9 degrees C). A critical threshold of temperature increase was not found for food production. When the socio-economic scenarios, agricultural technology development and international trade were incorporated in the analysis, China's internal food production would meet a critical threshold of basic demand (300 kg/capita) while it would not under A2 (no CO2 fertilization); whereas basic food demand would be satisfied under both A2 and B2, and would even meet a higher food demand threshold required to sustain economic growth (400 kg/capita) under B2, when CO2 fertilization was considered. CR *ED COMM CHIN AGR, 1997, CHIN AGR YB *FAO UNESCO, 1988, 60 FAO UNESCO *IPCC, 1994, PART IPCC SPEC REP 1, P59 *UK CLIM IMP PROGR, 2002, CLIM CHANG SCEN UK U, P45 *UN, 2004, WORLD POP PROSP 2004 ALEXANDRATOS N, 1999, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V96, P5908 ANDRE M, 1993, PLANT PHYSIOL BIOCH, V31, P103 ARNELL NW, 2003, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V14, P3 BACHELET D, 1993, SYSTEMS APPROACHES A, P145 BROWN LR, 1995, WHO WILL FEED CHINA, P163 CHOLAW B, 2003, ADV ATMOS SCI, V20, P755 CHOLAW B, 2003, CHINESE SCI BULL, V48, P1024 CURE JD, 1986, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V38, P127 DARWIN RF, 1995, 703 USDA DEJAN R, 2003, COMPUT GEOSIC, V29, P115 ELLIS EC, 1997, AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON, V61, P177 FISCHER G, 2002, CLIMATE CANGE AGR VU FROLKING S, 2002, GLOBAL BIOGEOCHEM CY, V16 GAFFIN SR, 2004, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V14, P105 GALE F, USDA AGR INFORM B, V775 GEWIN V, 2002, NATURE, V417, P112 GODWIN SL, 1989, USERS GUIDE CERES WH HARRISON PA, 2000, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V101, P167 HITZ S, 2004, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V14, P201 HOOGENBOOM G, 1995, ASA SPEC PUBL, V59, P59 HOOGENBOOM G, 1999, P INT S MOD CROPP SY, P201 HORIE T, 2000, CLIMATE CHANGE GLOBA, P81 HOUGHTON JT, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, P525 HULME M, 1999, CLIMATE CHANGE SCENA, P6 JONES RG, 2004, GENERATING HIGH RESO, P35 KENNY GJ, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V46, P91 KIMBALL BA, 1983, AGRON J, V75, P779 KNOX JW, 2000, NUTR CYCL AGROECOSYS, V58, P179 LIN ED, 2005, PHILOS T ROY SOC B, V360, P2149 LIU JY, 2002, J GEOGRAPHICAL SCI, V12, P275 MAAYAR ME, 1997, AGR FOR METEOROL, V85, P193 MALL RK, 2004, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V121, P113 MATTHEWS RB, 2000, NUTR CYCL AGROECOSYS, V58, P161 MAYTIN CE, 1995, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V29, P189 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 MENDELSOHN R, 1999, WORLD BANK RES OBSER, V14, P277 NAKICENOVIC N, 2000, SPECIAL REPORT EMISS PARRY ML, 1999, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V9, P51 PARRY ML, 1996, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V6, P1 PINTER PJ, 1996, CARBON DIOXIDE TERRE, P215 PRASAD E, 2004, CHINAS GROWTH INTEGR PRIESTLEY CHB, 1972, MON WEATHER REV, V100, P81 QIU J, 2003, GEOCARTO INT, V18, P3 RITCHIE JT, 1989, USERS GUIDE CERES MA RITCHIE JT, 1998, UNDERSTANDING OPTION, P79 ROSENZWEIG C, 1995, CLIMATE CHANGES INT, P27 ROSENZWEIG C, 1999, ENVIRON MODEL ASSESS, V4, P115 ROWELL DP, 2004, 49 HADL CTR MET OFF SAMARAKOON AB, 1995, J BIOGEOGR, V22, P193 SAMARAKOON AB, 1996, AUST J PLANT PHYSIOL, V23, P53 SINGH U, 1993, USERS GUIDE CERES RI, P131 SINHA SK, 1992, CLIMATE CHANGE SCI I, P98 SMIT JB, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, P913 TAO F, 2003, AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON, V95, P203 TAO F, 2003, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V118, P251 TAO FL, 2006, IN PRESS 1981 2000 A TONG CL, 2003, AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON, V95, P523 TSUJI GY, 1994, DECISION SUPPORT SYS VANLIESHOUT M, 2004, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V14, P87 WANG Q, 1995, J ENVIRON MANAGE, V47, P283 WOLF J, 1995, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V29, P299 WU YH, 1989, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V49, P9 XIAO XM, 2005, REMOTE SENS ENVIRON, V95, P480 XIONG W, 2005, CHIN J AGROMETEOROL, V26, P11 XU YL, 2004, P INT WORKSH PRED FO, P17 NR 70 TC 0 J9 CLIMATIC CHANGE BP 205 EP 221 PY 2007 PD MAR VL 81 IS 2 GA 142XR UT ISI:000244685100004 ER PT J AU Nicholls, RJ TI Coastal flooding and wetland loss in the 21st century: changes under the SRES climate and socio-economic scenarios SO GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS LA English DT Article C1 Middlesex Univ, Flood Hazard Res Ctr, Enfield EN3 4SF, Middx, England. RP Nicholls, RJ, Middlesex Univ, Flood Hazard Res Ctr, Enfield EN3 4SF, Middx, England. AB This paper considers the implications of a range of global-mean sea-level rise and socio-economic scenarios on: (1) changes in flooding by storm surges; and (2) potential losses of coastal wetlands through the 21st century. These scenarios are derived from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). Four different storylines are analysed: the A1FI, A2, B 1 and B2 'worlds'. The climate scenarios are derived from the HadCM3 climate model driven by the SRES emission scenarios. The SRES scenarios for global-mean sea-level rise range from 22 cm (B I world) to 34 cm (A1FI world) by the 2080s, relative to 1990. All other climate factors, including storm characteristics, are assumed to remain constant in the long term. Population and GDP scenarios are downscaled from the SRES regional analyses supplemented with other relevant scenarios for each impact analysis. The flood model predicts that about 10 million people/year experienced coastal flooding due to surges in 1990. The incidence of flooding will change without sea-level rise, but these changes are strongly controlled by assumptions on protection. Assuming that defence standards improve with growth in GDP/capita (lagged by 30 years), flood incidence increases in all four cases to the 2020s due to the growing exposed population. Then to the 2080s, the incidence of flooding declined significantly to less than or equal to 5 million people/year in the B2 world, less than or equal to 2 million people/year in the B I world and less than or equal to I million people/year in the A1FI world due to improving defence standards. In contrast, flood incidence continues to increase in the A2 world to the 2050s, and in the 2080s it is still 18-30 million people/year. This reflects the greater exposure and more limited adaptive capacity of the A2 world, compared to the other SRES storylines. Sea-level rise increases the flood impacts in all cases although significant impacts are not apparent until the 2080s when the additional people flooded are 7-10 million, 29-50 million, 2-3 million and 16-27 million people/year under the A1FI, A2, B I and B2 worlds, respectively. Hence, the A2 world also experiences the highest increase in the incidence of flooding. This is true under all the realistic scenario combinations that were considered demonstrating that socio-economic factors can greatly influence vulnerability to sea-level rise. The trends of the results also suggest that flood impacts due to sea-level rise could become much more severe through the 22nd century in all cases, especially in the A1F1 world. Note that impacts using a climate model with a higher climate sensitivity would produce larger impacts than HadCM3. Coastal wetlands will be lost due to sea-level rise in all world futures with 5-20% losses by the 2080s in the A1FI world. However, these losses are relatively small compared to the potential for direct and indirect human destruction. Thus, the difference in environmental attitudes between the A1/A2 worlds and the B1/B2 worlds would seem to have more important implications for the future of coastal wetlands, than the magnitude of the sea-level rise scenarios during the 21st Century. These results should be seen as broad analysis of the sensitivity of the coastal system to the HadCM3 SRES global-mean sea-level rise scenarios. While these impact estimates are only for one climate model, for both impact factors they stress the importance of socio-economic conditions and other non-climate factors as a fundamental control on the magnitude of impacts both with and without sea-level rise. The A2 world experiences the largest impacts during the 21st century, while the B1 world has the smallest impacts, with the differences more reflecting socio-economic factors than climate change. This suggests that the role of development pathways in influencing the impacts of climate change needs to be given more attention. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR 1994, WCC 93 PREPARING MEE *IPCC CZMS, 1990, STRAT AD SEA LEV RIS *UNDP, 2003, 2003 UNDP *UNEP, 2002, GLOB ENV OUTL, V3 ADGAR N, 2001, LIVING ENV CHANGE ARNELL NW, 2002, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V53, P413 ARNELL NW, 2003, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V14, P3 BIJLSMA L, 1996, IMPACTS ADAPTATIONS, P289 CAHOON DR, 1995, MAR GEOL, V128, P1 CAHOON DR, 1999, CURRENT TOPICS WETLA, V3, P72 CARRETERO JC, 1998, B AM METEOROL SOC, V79, P741 CHURCH JA, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, P639 DIXON MJ, 1997, 112 PROUDM OC LAB FRENCH PW, 1997, COASTAL ESTUARINE MA GILBERT S, 1984, THAMES BARRIER GREGORY JM, 2000, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V27, P3069 HOLLIGAN P, 1993, 25 IGBP HOOZEMANS FMJ, 1993, GLOBAL VULNERABILITY HULME M, 1999, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHA S, V9, S3 JOHNS TC, 2003, CLIM DYNAM, V20, P583 KELLY MP, 1991, IMPACT SEA LEVEL RIS, P93 LOWE JA, 2001, CLIM DYNAM, V18, P179 MCCLEAN R, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, P343 NAKICENOVIC N, 2000, SPECIAL REPORT EMISS NICHOLLS RJ, 1995, CLIMATE CHANGES INT, P92 NICHOLLS RJ, 1995, GEOJOURNAL, V37, P369 NICHOLLS RJ, 1999, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHA S, V9, PS69 NICHOLLS RJ, 2000, FLOODS, V2, P148 NICHOLLS RJ, 2001, REGIONAL CLIMATE CHA NICHOLLS RJ, 2002, ISS ENVIR SCI TECHN, V17, P83 NICHOLLS RJ, 2002, PHYS CHEM EARTH, V27, P1455 NURSE L, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, P843 ROSENWEIG C, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE GLOBA SMALL C, 2000, ENV GEOSCI, V7, P3 SMALL C, 2003, J COASTAL RES, V19, P584 SMIT B, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, P877 SMITH K, 1998, FLOODS PHYS PROCESSE SWART RJ, 2002, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V12, P155 TITUS JG, 2001, CLIMATE RES, V18, P205 TOL RSJ, 2004, SUCCESSFUL ADAPTATIO VALENTIN H, 1954, KUSTEN ERDE WIGLEY TML, 1993, CLIMATE SEA LEVEL CH, P111 YOHE GW, 2002, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V12, P25 ZHANG KQ, 2000, J CLIMATE, V13, P1748 NR 44 TC 0 J9 GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANGE BP 69 EP 86 PY 2004 PD APR VL 14 IS 1 GA 776TX UT ISI:000189135000006 ER PT J AU Fussel, HM Klein, RJT TI Climate change vulnerability assessments: An evolution of conceptual thinking SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 Stanford Univ, Ctr Environm Sci & Policy, Stanford, CA 94305 USA. Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res, D-14473 Potsdam, Germany. RP Fussel, HM, Stanford Univ, Ctr Environm Sci & Policy, Stanford, CA 94305 USA. AB Vulnerability is an emerging concept for climate science and policy. Over the past decade, efforts to assess vulnerability to climate change triggered a process of theory development and assessment practice, which is reflected in the reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). This paper reviews the historical development of the conceptual ideas underpinning assessments of vulnerability to climate change. We distinguish climate impact assessment, first- and second-generation vulnerability assessment, and adaptation policy assessment. The different generations of assessments are described by means of a conceptual framework that defines key concepts of the assessment and their analytical relationships. The purpose of this conceptual framework is two-fold: first, to present a consistent visual glossary of the main concepts underlying the IPCC approach to vulnerability and its assessment; second, to show the evolution of vulnerability assessments. This evolution is characterized by the progressive inclusion of non-climatic determinants of vulnerability to climate change, including adaptive capacity, and the shift from estimating expected damages to attempting to reduce them. We hope that this paper improves the understanding of the main approaches to climate change vulnerability assessment and their evolution, not only within the climate change community but also among researchers from other scientific communities, who are sometimes puzzled by the unfamiliar use of technical terms in the context of climate change. 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RP Smouts, MC, CNRS, CERI FNSP, Paris, France. CR *US GOVT, 1995, NAT SEC STRAT ENG EN BECK U, 1995, ECOLOGICAL POLITICS DEUDNEY D, 1999, CONTESTED GROUND SEC GRIFFITHS F, 1997, ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE KAKONEN J, 1994, GREEN SECURITY MILIT LEPRESTRE P, 1992, POLIT ETRANGERE, V3, P35 LEVY MA, 1995, INT SECURITY, V20, P35 MATTHEW RA, 2000, ENVIRONMENT SECURITY, P33 PALME O, 1982, COMMON SECURITY PALME O, 1986, CONCEPTS SECURITY SMOUTS MC, 1994, SECURITE COLLECTIVE NR 11 TC 0 J9 ESPRIT BP 133 EP 141 PY 2001 PD MAY IS 5 GA 433FX UT ISI:000168750500013 ER PT J AU Whitehead, A TI Tracking livelihood change: Theoretical, methodological and empirical perspectives from North-East Ghana SO JOURNAL OF SOUTHERN AFRICAN STUDIES LA English DT Article C1 Univ Sussex, Sch African & Asian Studies, Brighton BN1 9QN, E Sussex, England. RP Whitehead, A, Univ Sussex, Sch African & Asian Studies, Brighton BN1 9QN, E Sussex, England. AB This paper discusses a methodology in which livelihood change is investigated through the livelihood strategies of individually traced households that have been studied at two separate points in time. The area studied is in the north of Ghana, where anthropological fieldwork was carried out in 1975 and again in 1989. The paper discusses significant changes in the macro-context between the two dates and then examines three linked case-study households. Some of the processes of household accumulation and impoverishment become evident in the detailed accounts of changes in household membership and in livelihoods. The case studies show individuals and household heads making strategic choices, in circumstances where the room for manoeuvre is very limited. Climate change, government economic policy centred on adjustment measures and changes in the local and national markets for labour and products created a highly constrained and unpredictable environment for individuals and households. However, to make these arguments, the paper also draws on the findings from the author's quantitative surveys from several nearby communities and from more macro-level research, so the use of the matched case studies is set within research of considerable complexity and duration. Some of the most significant processes are uncovered when case-study data collected in qualitative surveys are filled out with data collected in the course of ethnographic research. Equally important is the additional secondary and historical research that allows links to be made between micro- and macro-levels. The paper concludes that using panel case studies is a potentially very useful complementary method, but it is not a short cut. 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RP Takarada, Y, Nanzan Univ, Fac Policy Studies, 27 Seirei Cho, Seto, Aichi 4890863, Japan. AB We examine the welfare effects of a transfer of pollution abatement technology in a two-country model. In each country, one industry discharges pollution as a byproduct of output, and the sum of domestic and cross-border pollution decreases the productivity of the other industry. We show the effects of technology transfer on the terms of trade, pollution levels, and welfare. Technology transfer decreases the pollution affecting each country under certain conditions. We derive and interpret the conditions under which technology transfer enriches the donor and the recipient. The results essentially depend on the trade pattern and the fraction of cross-border pollution. CR MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 *MOFA, 2003, JAP OFF DEV ASS ANN *OECD, 2001, OECD ENV OUTL BENARROCH M, 2001, J INT ECON, V55, P139 BHAGWATI JN, 1998, LECT INT TRADE BRAKMAN S, 1998, EC INT TRANSFERS BUCHHOLZ W, 1994, J ECON, V60, P299 CHAO CC, 1999, J DEV ECON, V59, P553 COPELAND BR, 1999, J INT ECON, V47, P137 COPELAND BR, 2003, TRADE ENV HELPMAN E, 1984, HDB INT EC, V1 HERBERG H, 1969, CANADIAN J EC, V2, P403 HERBERG H, 1982, J INT ECON, V13, P65 ITOH A, 2003, PAP REG SCI, V82, P519 KEMP MC, 1995, GAINS TRADE GAINS AI NAITO T, 2003, J ECON, V80, P161 RAUSCHER M, 1997, INT TRADE FACTOR MOV STRANLUND JK, 1996, J ECON, V64, P1 UNTEROBERDOERSTER O, 2001, J ENVIRON ECON MANAG, V41, P269 NR 19 TC 0 J9 J ECON BP 251 EP 275 PY 2005 PD SEP VL 85 IS 3 GA 968LA UT ISI:000232162800002 ER PT J AU ORIORDAN, T TI SCOPE OF ENVIRONMENTAL RISK MANAGEMENT SO AMBIO LA English DT Article RP ORIORDAN, T, UNIV E ANGLIA,SCH ENVIRONM SCI,NORWICH NR4 7TJ,NORFOLK,ENGLAND. CR 1976, NUCLEAR POWER ENV 1977, ACCEPTABILITY RISK, P57 1977, ADVISORY COMMITTEE O, P14 1977, NUCLEAR ENERGY ISSUE 1977, OFFICIAL J C, V139 1978, ECONOMIST 0617, P101 ARMSTRONG G, 1979, GUARDIAN 0312, P6 ASHBY E, 1978, RECONCILING MAN HIS, P31 BURTON I, 1978, ENV HAZARD, V1, P1 CARTER LJ, 1978, SCIENCE, V198, P276 HAY AWM, 1977, DISASTERS, V1, P289 KASPERSON RE, 1976, NUCLEAR ENERGY LOCAL KATES RW, 1978, MANAGING TECHNOLOGIC KATES RW, 1978, RISK ASSESSMENT ENV OTWAY HJ, 1978, FUTURES, V10, P109 PATTERSON W, 1977, NUCLEAR POWER REIN RW, 1977, SACCHARIN CONTROVERS SCOBIE W, 1979, OBSERVER 0325, P8 NR 18 TC 10 J9 AMBIO BP 260 EP 264 PY 1979 VL 8 IS 6 GA HY327 UT ISI:A1979HY32700003 ER PT B AU SEN, AK TI Poverty and Famines: An Essay on Entitlement and Deprivation SO POVERTY FAMINES ESSA LA English DT Book AB The main focus of this book is on the causation of starvation in general and of famines in particular. The traditional analysis of famines focusing on food supply, is shown to be fundamentally defective - theoretically unsound, empirically inept, and dangerously misleading for policy. The author develops an alternative method of analysis - the entitlement approach - concentrating on ownership and exchange. Aside from developing the underlying theory, the approach is used in a number of case studies of recent famines. The book also provides a general analysis of the characterisation and measurement of poverty. The predominance of distributional issues, including distribution between different occupation groups, links up the problem of conceptualizing poverty with that of analyising starvation. CR SWIFT J, 1977, ANNU REV ANTHROPOL, V6, P457 NR 0 TC 0 BP 1 EP 257 PY 1981 VL 1 ER PT J AU Pomeroy, RS Ratner, BD Hall, SJ Pimoljinda, J TI Coping with disaster: Rehabilitating coastal livelihoods and communities SO MARINE POLICY LA English DT Article C1 WorldFish Ctr, George Town 11960, Malaysia. Coastal Habitats & Resources Management Project, Krabi, Thailand. S Indian Fed Fisherman Soc, Trivandrum, Kerala, India. RP Pomeroy, RS, WorldFish Ctr, George Town 11960, Malaysia. AB This paper examines lessons from past approaches to natural disasters, as well as early lessons from the post-2004 Asian tsunami rehabilitation, to draw out general principles for rehabilitating livelihoods in poor coastal communities. We contend that avoiding the mistakes of the past requires: (1) a framework for understanding the diversity of coastal people's livelihood strategies and the sources of their vulnerability, (2) a process for designing interventions that build on this understanding in order to strengthen and revitalize coastal communities, including a means of assessing and selecting the most promising livelihood options, and (3) a focus on the longer-term challenge of building future resilience and sustainability in the communities by addressing the root causes of vulnerability. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR 2005, CONSORTIUM RESTORE S *ASS SE AS NAT SE, 2005, P C JAK IND 18 20 JU *DENR BFAR DILG, 2001, PHIL COAST MAN GUID *FAO, 2001, RAP PUBL *IMM LTD, 1 SCL U EX *IMM LTD, 7 SCL IMM LTD U EX *IMM LTD, 2001, LEARN LESS CYCL STUD *INT DEV BANK, 2000, FAC CHALL NAT DIS LA *INT FOOD POL RES, 2005, DIIFPRI FOR MARCH *ORG AM STAT, 1997, CAR DIS MIT PROJ *WORLD BANK, 2005, LESS NAT DIS EM REC ALLISON EH, 2001, MAR POLICY, V25, P377 BAILEY C, 1996, SOC NATUR RESOUR, V9, P191 BEATLEY T, 1998, HURRICANE LINKING RE GRUNEWALD F, 2000, 34 HPH OV DEV I HOUGHTON R, 2005, TSUNAMI EMERGENCY LE KURIEN J, 1998, SMALL SCALE FISHERIE KURIEN J, 2003, 349 CTR DEV STUD MCDONALD F, C P 18 MARCH GREEN C MESSER NM, 2003, ROLE LOCAL I THEIR I OLSEN S, 2005, COASTAL SCI TSUNAMI POLLNAC RB, 2001, OCEAN COAST MANAGE, V44, P531 POMEROY RS, 1991, MAR POL, V15, P39 POMEROY RS, 2004, FTR4 COMM CONS NETW RIBOT JC, 2002, DEMOCRATIC DECENTRAL SILVESTRE G, 2003, WORLDF CTR C P 67 PE SMITH LED, 2005, WATER POLICY, V7, P359 WHITTINGHAM E, 2003, GLOBAL OVERVIEW POVE, V1 WISNER B, 2002, VULNERABILITY DISAST NR 29 TC 1 J9 MAR POLICY BP 786 EP 793 PY 2006 PD NOV VL 30 IS 6 GA 084UQ UT ISI:000240560300019 ER PT J AU Hogan, DJ Marandola, E TI Towards an interdisciplinary conceptualisation of vulnerability SO POPULATION SPACE AND PLACE LA English DT Article C1 Univ Estadual Campinas, Inst Philosophy & Human Sci, Campinas, SP, Brazil. Univ Estadual Campinas, Ctr Populat Studies, Campinas, SP, Brazil. Univ Estadual Campinas, Inst Geosci, Campinas, SP, Brazil. RP Hogan, DJ, Univ Estadual Campinas, Inst Philosophy & Human Sci, Campinas, SP, Brazil. AB Each discipline uses uncertainty in different ways. This paper reviews the range of definitions and methodologies used by researchers to approach vulnerability in the search for an interdisciplinary conceptualisation. Two themes (poverty, exclusion and marginalisation on the one hand, and society-environment interactions on the other) are used to explore the authors' conceptualisation of vulnerability. The paper points towards possible convergences of these approaches. Copyright (c) 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. CR *ECLAC, 2002, PROP IND FOLL GOALS *ECLAC, 2002, SOC DEM VULN OLD NEW ADGER WN, 2003, IHDP UPDATE, V2, P1 BAUMEISTER B, 1997, J ALGEBR COMB, V6, P5 BECK U, 1992, RISK SOC NEW MODERNI BLAIKIE PM, 1994, RISK NATURAL HAZARDS, V1, P1 BROWN M, 2005, SEM MAK SENS VULN IN BURTON I, 1978, ENV HAZARD, V1, P1 CASEY ES, 1997, FATE PLACE PHILOS HI CROCKER D, 1992, POLIT THEORY, V20, P4 CUTTER SL, 1994, ENV RISKS HAZARDS CUTTER SL, 1996, PROG HUM GEOG, V20, P529 CUTTER SL, 2003, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V93, P1 FAVARETTO CF, 1995, UNO MULTIPLO NAS REL, P29 FEYERABEND PK, 1983, METHOD OUTLINE ANARC FINDLAY AM, 2005, POPUL SPACE PLACE, V11, P429 GIDDENS A, 1992, TRANSFORMATION INTIM GOULD WTS, 2005, POPUL SPACE PLACE, V11, P473 HESSEN J, 2003, TEORIA CONHECIMENTO HEWITT K, 1971, HAZARDOUSNESS PLACE HEWITT K, 1997, REGIONS RISK GEOGRAP, V1, P1 HOGAN DJ, 2002, TRANSICION HACIA DES, P161 HOPENHAYN M, 2002, REV BRASILEIRA ESTUD, V19, P5 HUSSERL E, 2001, LOGISCHE UNTERSUCHUN ILYA P, 1997, END CERTAINTY TIME C JONES D, 1993, GEOGRAPHY, V78, P161 KASPERSON JX, 1995, REGIONS RISK, V1, P1 KASPERSON JX, 2001, GLOBAL ENV RISK KASPERSON JX, 2001, INT WORKSH VULN GLOB KASPERSON JX, 1995, REGIONS RISK, V1, P1 KATES RW, 2001, SCIENCE, V292, P641 KAZTMAN R, 1999, ACTIVOS ESTRUCTURAS KAZTMAN R, 1999, VULNERABILIDAD ACTIV KOWARICK L, 1993, SOCIAL STRUGGLES CIT KOWARICK L, 2002, NOVOS ESTUDOS CEBRAP, V63, P9 LEFF E, 2000, PROBLEMAS CONOCIMIEN LEFF E, 2000, SABER AMBIENTAL SUST LEFF E, 2001, EPISTEMOLOGIA AMBIEN LIVERMAN DM, 1994, ENV RISKS HAZARDS, P326 MALMBERG G, 2005, SEM MAK SENS VULN IN MARANDOLA E, 2004, AMBIENTE SOC, V7, P95 MARANDOLA E, 2004, GEOGRAFIA, V29, P315 MARANDOLA E, 2004, GEOSUL, V19, P25 MARANDOLA E, 2005, SEMINAR MAKING SENSE MARSTON S, 2004, SPACES DEMOCRACY, P93 MATTEDI MA, 2001, AMBIENTE SOCIEDADE, V4, P93 MERLEAUPONTY M, 1945, PHENOMENOLOGIA PERCE MORIN E, 1980, METHODE NASCIMENTO CAR, 1995, MUNTIPLO NAS RELACOE, P22 NEFF R, 2005, SEM MAK SENS VUL INT PHILIPPI A, 2000, INTERDISCIPLINARIDAD PHILO V, 2005, POPULATION SPACE PLA, V11, P441 QUARTANTELLI EL, 1994, EC RISKS HAZARDS, P18 RODRIGUEZ J, 2000, VULNERABILIDAD DEMOG SANTOS BD, 1995, NEW COMMON SENSE LOW SEN AK, 1993, QUALITY LIFE, P30 SEN AK, 1981, POVERTY FAMINES ESSA, V1, P1 SEN AK, 1998, CUADERNOS EC, V17, P67 SEN AK, 1999, DEV FREEDOM SMITH K, 1992, ENV HAZARDS ASSESSNG STEWART E, 2005, POPUL SPACE PLACE, V11, P499 TELLES VS, 1996, SAP PAULO PERSPECTIV, V10, P85 TOURAINE A, 1995, CRITIQUE MODERNITE TURNER BL, 2003, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V100, P8074 TURNER BL, 2003, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V100, P8080 VALENTINE G, 2005, SEM MAK SENS VULN IN WATTS MJ, 1993, PROG HUM GEOG, V17, P43 WHITE GF, 1973, DIRECTIONS GEOGRAPHY, P193 WHITE GF, 1974, NATURAL HAZARDS LOCA WISNER B, 2004, RISK NATURAL HAZARDS NR 70 TC 1 J9 POPUL SPACE PLACE BP 455 EP 471 PY 2005 PD NOV-DEC VL 11 IS 6 GA 003VW UT ISI:000234710900003 ER PT J AU Ness, B Urbel-Piirsalu, E Anderberg, S Olsson, L TI Categorising tools for sustainability assessment SO ECOLOGICAL ECONOMICS LA English DT Article C1 Lund Univ, Ctr Sustainabil Studies, S-22100 Lund, Sweden. Lund Univ, Dept Social & Econ Geog, S-22362 Lund, Sweden. Stockholm Environm Inst, Tallinn Ctr, EE-10502 Tallinn, Estonia. Univ Copenhagen, Inst Geog, DK-1350 Copenhagen K, Denmark. RP Ness, B, Lund Univ, Ctr Sustainabil Studies, POB 170, S-22100 Lund, Sweden. AB The aim of this paper is to provide a categorisation of sustainability assessment tools within the broader objective of lifting the understanding of sustainability assessment from the environmental-focused realm to a wider interpretation of sustainability. The suggested framework is based on three main categories: indicators/indices, product-related assessment, and integrated assessment tools. There is furthermore the overarching category of monetary valuation tools that can be used as a part of many of the tools listed in the three categories. The tools are also divided by their spatial focus and the level of nature-society system integration. Discussion focuses on if and how the tools fulfil the objectives from the more current understanding of sustainability assessment. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. CR 1997, OFFICIAL J, V73, P5 *CTR INF EARTH SCI, 2002, 2002 ENV SUST IND GL *EU COMM, 1985, OFFICIAL J, V175, P40 *EU COMM, 2002, COM2002276 *EUR COMM EUR, 1999, ENV PRESS IND EU *EUR COMM EUR, 2001, ENV PRESS IND EU *EUR, 2001, EC WID MAT FLOW ACC *UN, 2002, NAT IMP AG 21 REP *UNCSD, 2001, IND SUST DEV GUID MT *UNDP, 2004, HUM DEV REP CULT LIB *US NAT RES COUNC, 1999, OUR COMM JOURN TRANS *WCED, 1987, OUR COMM FUT ADRIANNSE A, 1997, RESOURCE FLOWS MAT B ANDERBERG S, 2000, OLD SINS IND METABOL ANTIKAINEN R, 2004, J CLEAN PROD, V12, P919 AYRES RU, 2003, ENERGY, V28, P219 BAUMANN H, 1999, GREENER MANAGEMENT I, V26, P109 BROUWER R, 2004, ECOL ECON, V50, P1 BROWN MT, 2002, J CLEAN PROD, V10, P321 CAULFIELD CW, 2001, CASE SYSTEMS THINKIN CHECKLAND P, 1981, SYSTEMS THINKING SYS CIAMBRONE DF, 1997, ENV LIFE CYCLE ANAL COBB C, 1995, GENUINE PROGR INDICA DALY HE, 1989, COMMON GOOD DEHAES HAU, 2004, J IND ECOL, V8, P19 DEVUYST D, 2000, SUSTAIN DEV, V8, P67 DEVUYST D, 2001, GREEN IS CITY SUSTAI DIXON RK, 2003, MITIGATION ADAPTATIO, V8, P93 DOHRTY SJ, 2002, EMERGY EVALUATION FO DREYER L, 2005, INT J LCA, V11, P88 EKVALL T, 1999, J CLEAN PROD, V7, P281 EVERETT G, 1999, WORLD BANKS GENUINE FINNVEDEN G, 2003, ENVIRON IMPACT ASSES, V23, P91 FINNVEDEN G, 2005, INT J LIFE CYCLE ASS, V10, P235 FINNVEDEN G, 2005, J CLEAN PROD, V13, P1165 FINNVEDEN G, 2005, J CLEAN PROD, V13, P213 FISCHERKOWALSKI M, 1998, J IND ECOL, V2, P107 GERLAGH R, 2002, ECOL ECON, V41, P157 GLUCH P, 2004, BUILD ENVIRON, V39, P571 GOUGH CA, 1998, ENVIRON MODEL ASSESS, V3, P19 GREENING LA, 2004, ENERG POLICY, V32, P721 HAMILTON K, 1997, 9703 CSERGEGEC HANLEY N, 1999, ECOL ECON, V28, P55 HARGER JRE, 1996, CHEMOSPHERE, V33, P1749 HAUSCHILD M, 2000, SYSTEMS APPROACH ENV, P155 HERENDEEN RA, 2004, ECOL MODEL, V178, P227 HOVELIUS K, 1997, ENERGY EXERGY EMERGY, V222 HUETING R, 1993, METHODOLOGY CALCULAT JOHANSSON PO, 1996, COST BENEFIT ANAL EN JOLLIET O, 2004, INT J LIFE CYCLE ASS, V9, P394 KANN A, 2000, ENVIRON MODEL ASSESS, V5, P29 KASEMIR B, 2003, PUBLIC PARTICIPATION, P3 KATES RW, 2001, SCIENCE, V292, P641 KATES RW, 2005, ENVIRONMENT, V47, P8 KELLY PM, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V47, P325 KLEIJN R, 2001, J IND ECOLOGY, V4, P7 KLOPFFER W, 2003, INT J LIFE CYCLE ASS, V8, P157 LAMMERS PEM, 1999, ENV PRESSURE INDICAT LIND N, 2004, SOC INDIC RES, V66, P283 LINDFORS LG, 1995, NORD, V20 LINDQVIST A, 2004, J CLEAN PROD, V12, P909 LOPES E, 2003, J CLEAN PROD, V11, P51 LUNGHI P, 2004, J POWER SOURCES, V131, P120 MATTHEWS E, 2000, WEIGHT NATIONS MAT MOBERG A, 1999, ENV SYSTEMS ANAL TOO, P83 MOBERG A, 2005, J CLEAN PROD, V13, P231 NILSSON D, 1997, BIOMASS BIOENERG, V13, P63 OBRIEN KL, 2004, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V64, P193 ODUM HT, 1996, ENV ACCOUNTING EMERG PARTIDARIO MR, 1999, HDB ENV IMPACT ASSES, V1, P60 PEARCE D, 1994, ENV EC PETTS J, 1999, HDB ENV IMPACT ASSES POPE J, 2004, ENVIRON IMPACT ASSES, V24, P595 PRESCOTTALLEN R, 2001, WELLBEING NATIONS CO ROSEN MA, 2001, EXERGY INT J, V1, P3 ROSS S, 2002, ENVIRON MANAGE, V29, P132 ROTMANS J, 1998, ENVIRON MODEL ASSESS, V3, P155 SADLER B, 1999, HDB ENV IMPACT ASSES, V1, P12 SPANGENBERG JH, 1999, ENV ISSUES SERIS EUR, P58 TURNER BL, 2003, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V100, P8074 VENETOULIS J, 2004, ECOLOGICAL FOOTPRINT VOSE D, 2000, RISK ANAL QUANTITATI WACKERNAGEL M, 1996, OUR ECOLOGICAL FOOTP WALKER J, 1999, GUIDELINES ASSESSMEN WALL G, 1977, 7742 CHALM U TECHN, P58 WALL G, 1990, ENERGY, V15, P435 WALL G, 1997, INT C THERM AN IMPR WILKINSON D, 2004, SUSTAINABLE DEV EURO WRISBERG N, 2002, ANAL TOOLS ENV DESIG NR 89 TC 0 J9 ECOL ECON BP 498 EP 508 PY 2007 PD JAN 15 VL 60 IS 3 GA 129PN UT ISI:000243741500003 ER PT J AU Dawson, RJ Hall, JW Bates, PD Nicholls, RJ TI Quantified analysis of the probability of flooding in the Thames estuary under imaginable worst-case sea level rise scenarios SO INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF WATER RESOURCES DEVELOPMENT LA English DT Article C1 Univ Newcastle Upon Tyne, Sch Civil Engn & Geosci, Newcastle Upon Tyne NE1 7RU, Tyne & Wear, England. Univ Bristol, Sch Geog Sci, Bristol, Avon, England. Univ Southampton, Sch Civil & Environm Engn, Southampton SO9 5NH, Hants, England. RP Dawson, RJ, Univ Newcastle Upon Tyne, Sch Civil Engn & Geosci, Cassie Bldg, Newcastle Upon Tyne NE1 7RU, Tyne & Wear, England. AB Most studies of the impacts of sea level rise (SLR) have explored scenarios of < 1 m during the 21st century, even though larger rises are possible. This paper takes a different approach and explores and quantifies the likely flood impacts in the Thames estuary for a number of plausible, but unlikely, SLR scenarios. The collapse of the Western Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) could cause global mean sea level to rise by 5-6 m; here a time-scale for such an event of 100 years is assumed to create a worst-case scenario. Combined with the 1 in 1000 storm surge event, this would result in 1000 kW of land being frequently inundated. This area currently contains 1 million properties and their inundation would result in direct damage of at least 97.8 billion at 2003 prices. Smaller SLR scenarios, resulting from a partial collapse of the WAIS over 100 years, also have significant potential impacts, demonstrating the vulnerability of the Thames estuary to SLR. Construction of a new storm surge barrier in the outer Thames estuary is shown to provide greater resilience to unexpectedly high SLR because of the additional large flood storage capacity that the barrier would provide. This analysis has, for the first time, connected mechanisms of abrupt climate change and SLR with hydrodynamic modelling used to quantify impacts. In particular, it is recognized that future management strategies need to be adaptive and robust in order to manage the uncertainty associated with climate change. CR *ENV AG, 2003, PLANN FLOOD RISK MAN *ENV AG, 2003, REV UPD TID THAM STR *ENV AG, 2003, THAM GAT FLOOD RISK *IPCC, 2001, 3 ASS REP SUMM POL M *LOND ASS, 2002, FLOOD LOND *NAT RES COUNC, 2002, ABR CLIM CHANG IN SU *ODPM, 2004, GREEN GAT ARNELL NW, 2005, VULNERABILITY ABRUPT ARNELL NW, 2002, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V53, P413 ARONICA G, 2002, HYDROL PROCESS, V16, P2001 BATES PD, 2000, J HYDROL, V236, P54 BATES PD, 2005, COAST ENG, V52, P793 CHADWICK A, 1993, HYDRAULICS CIVIL ENV CLARK PU, 2002, NATURE, V415, P863 COLEMAN MD, 2002, GEOINFORMATICS DEC, P16 CUGIER P, 2002, ESTUAR COAST SHELF S, V55, P673 DAWSON RJ, 2003, P INT C COAST MAN, P93 DAWSON RJ, 2003, THESIS U BRISTOL DOYLE R, 2003, FLOOD DYER KR, 1973, ESTUARIES PHYS INTRO EVANS E, 2004, FORESIGHT FUTURE FLO, V1 EVANS E, 2004, MANAGING FUTURE RISK, V2 GILBERT S, 1984, THAMES BARRIER HALL JW, 2003, ASCE NATURAL HAZARDS, V4, P126 HALL JW, 2003, P I CIVIL ENG-WATER, V156, P235 HORRITT MS, 2001, HYDROL PROCESS, V15, P825 HULME M, 2002, CLIMATE CHANGE SCENA HULME M, 2003, PHILOS T ROY SOC A, V361, P2001 JONES DA, 2001, RESULTS JOINT PROBAB KASHEFIPOUR SM, 2002, WATER RES, V36, P1854 KELLER K, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V47, P17 LONSDALE KG, IN PRESS CLIMATIC CH, P5 MASTRANDREA M, 2001, CLIM POLICY, V1, P433 MERCER JH, 1978, NATURE, V271, P321 NICHOLLS RJ, 1995, GEOJOURNAL, V37, P369 NICHOLLS RJ, 1999, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHA S, V9, S69 NICHOLLS RJ, 2002, GLOBAL ENV CHANGE IS, V17, P83 NICHOLLS RJ, 2004, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V14, P229 OPPENHEIMER M, 1998, NATURE, V393, P325 PARRY ML, 2004, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V14, P1 PENNINGROWSELL EC, 2003, BENEFITS FLOOD COAST PERRINGS C, 2003, PHILOS T ROY SOC A, V361, P2001 RE M, 2004, MEGACITIES MEGARISKS REYNARD NS, 2001, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V48, P343 ROSSITER JR, 1954, PHILOS T ROY SOC A, V246, P317 SMALL C, 2003, J COASTAL RES, V19, P584 SMITH K, 1998, FLOODS PHYS PROCESSE TIRPAK D, 2005, INT S STAB GREENH GA TOL RSJ, IN PRESS J RISK ANAL TURNER RK, 1996, ENVIRON MANAGE, V20, P159 VAUGHAN DG, 2002, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V52, P65 WIGLEY TML, 1995, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V22, P45 NR 52 TC 0 J9 INT J WATER RESOUR DEV BP 577 EP 591 PY 2005 PD DEC VL 21 IS 4 GA 989QF UT ISI:000233688100004 ER PT J AU de Haan, L Zoomers, A TI Exploring the frontier of livelihoods research SO DEVELOPMENT AND CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 African Studies Ctr, Leiden, Netherlands. Leiden Univ, NL-2300 RA Leiden, Netherlands. Ctr Latin Amer Res & Documentat, NL-1016 EK Amsterdam, Netherlands. RP de Haan, L, African Studies Ctr, POB 9555, Leiden, Netherlands. AB This article discusses the value of livelihoods studies and examines the obstacles which have prevented it from making a greater contribution to understanding the lives of poor people over the past decade. After examining the roots of the livelihoods approach, two major challenges are explored: the conceptualization of the problem of access, and how to achieve a better understanding of the mutual link between livelihood opportunities and decision-making. The article concludes that access to livelihood opportunities is governed by social relations, institutions and organizations, and that power is an important (and sometimes overlooked) explanatory variable. In discussing the issue of access to livelihood opportunities, the authors note the occurrence of both strategic and unintentional behaviour and the importance of structural factors; they discuss concepts of styles and pathways, which try to cater for structural components and regularities; and they propose livelihood trajectories as an appropriate methodology for examining these issues. In this way, the article also sets the agenda for future livelihoods research. 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AB Transformations in terrestrial ecosystems are increasingly regarded as an important element of global change. Quantitative data on where, when and why land-cover changes take place globally are still incomplete. This article reviews recent approaches to the monitoring and modelling of deforestation and dryland degradation in tropical regions. The review highlights the requirement to tailor the investigation method to the specific research question of interest. Different techniques to monitor land-cover changes at regional scales are analysed. The following modelling scenarios are discussed and illustrated by specific studies: projection of future land-cover changes with descriptive models, explanation of land-cover changes with empirical models, projection of future spatial patterns of changes with spatial statistical models, test of scenarios on future changes in land-cover with dynamic ecosystem models, and design of policy interventions with economic models. The article stresses the needs for a better integration of social science knowledge in land-cover change models and for a comprehensive theory of land-use changes. 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RP Carey, M, Univ Calif Davis, Dept Hist, Davis, CA 95616 USA. AB Human populations worldwide are vulnerable to natural disasters. Certain conditions-such as geographical location or people's income level-can affect the degree to which natural disasters impact people's homes and livelihoods. This paper suggests that vulnerability to natural disasters increases when local people, scientists, and policymakers do not communicate and trust each other. Additionally, a breakdown in interaction and confidence among these groups can disrupt the implementation of sound science or well-intentioned policies. This case study analyzes how local people, scientists, and government officials responded to glacier hazards in Peru's Cordillera Blanca mountain range. Cordillera Blanca glacier retreat since the late-19th century has triggered some of the world's most deadly avalanches and glacial lake outburst floods. Although a Peruvian glaciology and lakes security office has "controlled' 35 Cordillera Blanca glacial lakes, 30 glacier disasters have killed nearly 30,000 people in this region since 1941. A lack of local faith in government officials and scientists as well as the State's failure to follow scientists' warnings about potential disasters have endangered or led to the death of thousands of local residents, many of which remain living in hazard zones today. (c) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 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RP Ramakrishnan, PS, Jawaharlal Nehru Univ, Sch Environm Sci, New Delhi 110067, India. AB Mountain systems in India, including the Himalayan region are characterized by highly complex socio-ecological systems, with rich cultural diversity linked with equally rich species of biological diversity. With a large number of ethnic societies having their own social, economic and cultural attributes placed in a highly heterogeneous mountain environment, any conservation-linked developmental initiative has to be based upon a value system that they understand, appreciate and therefore can participate. While textbook-based formal knowledge' has its value in this effort, the rich traditional ecological knowledge (TEK) derived through all experiential 'process and available with local communities forms a powerful connecting link between ecological and social systems. Converting TEK, often seen as location-specific into broad generalizations that are applicable across socio-ecological systems was the major step that was undertaken by this author to convert research results into policy formulations and developmental initiatives, as illustrated here. In the ultimate analysis, developmental initiatives that link cultural diversity with biological diversity are seen as the basis for ensuring human security in these socio-ecologically fragile mountain systems. 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SO GEOGRAPHICAL JOURNAL LA English DT Article C1 Free Univ Amsterdam, Inst Environm Studies, NL-1081 HV Amsterdam, Netherlands. Natl Inst Coastal & Marine Management, NL-2500 EX The Hague, Netherlands. Delft Hydraul, NL-2600 MH Delft, Netherlands. RP Klein, RJT, Free Univ Amsterdam, Inst Environm Studies, De Boelelaan 1115, NL-1081 HV Amsterdam, Netherlands. AB This paper describes coastal resilience as a measure of the extent to which a coast is able to respond to external pressures without losing actual or potential functions. Such usage of the term gives coastal scientists, planners and managers a new opportunity to express complex coastal dynamics in a simple aggregated form. Coastal resilience has morphological, ecological and socio-economic components, each of which represents another aspect of the coastal system's adaptive capacity to perturbations. Enhancing coastal resilience is increasingly viewed as a cost-effective way to prepare for uncertain future changes while maintaining opportunities for coastal development. The Netherlands has known a long tradition of controlling natural coastal processes by stringent dune management and building hard sea-defence structures. However, both socio-economic and natural adaptive processes have become constrained owing to the limited availability of land and the diminished coastal resilience that has resulted from technological solutions and legal provisions. The recent study Growing with the Sea proposes to restore natural coastal processes along the Dutch coast and let natural and socio-economic systems interact more dynamically. It explores possibilities of enhancing coastal resilience in The Netherlands by allowing managed retreat in areas where it is environmentally acceptable and reclaiming land in other areas. 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SO WORLD DEVELOPMENT LA English DT Article C1 Ctr Int Forestry Res, Jakarta, Indonesia. RP Wunder, S, Ctr Int Forestry Res, Jakarta, Indonesia. AB This paper explores the "state-of-the-art" of the two-way causal links between poverty alleviation and natural tropical forests. Microimpacts of rising poverty can increase or slow forest loss. At the macrolevel, poverty also has an ambiguous effect, but it is probable that higher income stimulates forest loss by raising demand for agricultural land. The second question is what potential forest-led development has to alleviate a country's poverty, in terms of producer benefits, consumer benefits and economy-wide employment. Natural forests widely serve as "safety nets" for the rural poor, but it proves difficult to raise producer benefits significantly. Urban consumer benefits from forest, an important target for pro-poor agricultural innovation, are limited and seldom favor the poor. Absorption of (poor) unskilled labor is low in forestry, which tends to be capital-intensive. Natural forests may thus lack comparative advantage for poverty alleviation. There are few "win-win" synergies between natural forests and national poverty reduction, which may help to explain why the loss of tropical forests is ongoing. This may have important implications for our understanding of "sustainable forest development" and for the design of both conservation and poverty-alleviation strategies. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. 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RP Clark, WC, Harvard Univ, John F Kennedy Sch Govt, Cambridge, MA 02138 USA. AB This Article discusses the challenges and opportunities facing efforts to shape a transition toward more sustainable relations between humans and their planet. It begins with a review of international goals for human development and environmental conservation, past trends in interactions between the Earth's social and natural systems that set the stage for contemporary efforts to meet those goals, and some of the foreseeable problems that will have to be addressed in the years ahead. Arguing that the successful strategies for navigating a sustainability transition will necessarily be knowledge intensive, the Article discusses strategies for social learning about sustainability. It closes with a review of the institutional reforms that will be necessary to implement such strategies. 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RP Maal-Bared, R, Univ British Columbia, Lib Proc Ctr, Inst Resources Environm & Sustainabil, 2206 East Mall,4th Floor, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z3, Canada. AB Following the Earth Summit in 1992, Cuba designed and implemented a variety of programs, administrative structures, and public awareness activities to promote sound environmental management and sustainable development. This came shortly after the fall of the Soviet Union and the strengthening of the US blockade in 1990, which resulted in a 35% drop in Cuban GDP. This period, referred to as the Special Period, witnessed a decrease in many environmentally damaging activities both by choice and by necessity, but also resulted in many decisions to resuscitate the Cuban economy. The purpose of this work was to compare and rank the environmental risks Cuba faced before and during the Special Period (1990-2000) using two Comparative environmental risk assessments (CERAs). To do so, an ecosystem integrity risk assessment matrix was constructed with 42 risk end points. The matrix assessed the fisk posed by 17 problem areas including air pollution, water contamination, solid waste sites, pesticides and ecosystem degradation. The risks were calculated using five criteria: area affected, vulnerability of affected population, severity of impact, irreversibility of effect and uncertainty. To construct this matrix, both literature reviews and expert interviews in Cuba were conducted in 2000. The results showed a general decrease in risk scores during the Special Period. Before the Special Period, high risks were posed by: terrestrial degradation and industrial wastewater and sludge, followed by freshwater degradation, surface water stressors, and pesticides. After the Special Period, industrial wastewater and sludge and pesticides were no longer high-risk areas, but municipal wastewater and marine coastal degradation ranked higher than previously. Also, the fisk endpoints most stressed after 1990 were affected by activities controlled by the government, such as mining and tourism, and lack of infrastructure. Therefore, the claims that public environmental education is the main pathway to sustainable development in Cuba seem uninformed and other management practices should be evaluated. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *CENHICA, 1996, B HIDR MENS *CITMA, 1992, REF NEG REP BLOCK DE *COM EST EST, 1991, AN EST CUB 1996 *COM EST EST, 1998, AN EST CUB 1996 *US EPA, 1993, 230B93003 EPA *WORLD BANK GROUP, 1998, WORLD BANK PUBL BORHIDI A, 1991, PHYTOGEOGRAPHY VEGET CURA JJ, 2004, HUM ECOL RISK ASSESS, V10, P485 DELACRUZ J, 1989, AN EST CUB 1989 DELACRUZ J, 1989, FAUNA NUEVO ATLAS NA DELLOBUONO RA, 1995, CARTA CUBA INTERDISC DELRIO PLD, 1990, DESARROLLO HIDROECON DIAZBRIQUETS S, 1993, CUBA TRANSITION, V3, P123 DIAZBRIQUETS S, 1995, 5 ANN M ASS STUD CUB, V5, P281 DIAZBRIQUETS S, 1997, CUBA TRANSITION, V7, P488 DOMECH RG, 1999, REGIONES NATURALES I FELDMAN DL, 1999, ENVIRON MANAGE, V23, P483 FERNANDEZ ZM, 1999, ECOLOGIA SOC ESTUDIO FIGUERAS MA, 1992, LATIN AM PERSPECTIVE, V10 FITZGERALD FT, 1994, CUBAN REVOLUTION CRI GARCIA JRL, 1992, CUBAN REVOLUTION 199, V10 GARFIELD R, 1997, AM J PUBLIC HEALTH, V87, P15 HAINES L, 1997, N147 EC INT UN HOUSTON HP, 1998, ENV ED INFORMATION, V17, P137 JACOBSON SK, 1992, ENVIRON MANAGE, V16, P701 KAY JJ, 1993, ECOLOGICAL INTEGRITY LANE PA, 1999, CANSCET RISK ANAL PR LANE PA, 2000, PEACE REV, V12, P319 LEE AS, 1996, CUBA NATURAL MAALBARED R, 2000, THESIS DALHOUSIE U H MCELROY J, 1990, SUSTAINABLE DEV ENV, P299 MORGENSTERN RD, 2000, J HAZARD MATER, V78, P19 PORTELA AH, 2000, NAT HAZARDS REV, V1, P171 RODRIGUEZ MIA, 1994, GEOGRAFIA MEDIO AMBI ROSSET P, 1994, GREENING REVOLUTION SAEZ H, 1997, P 7 ANN M ASS STUD C, V7, P472 SANCHEZGONZALEZ A, 1991, FUENTES TERRESTRES C SCANAVIS C, 2004, INT J SUST DEV WORLD, V11, P356 STANLEY D, 1997, CUBA LONELY PLANET T TUXILL J, 1998, STATE WORLD VALES MA, 1998, ESTUDIO NACL DIVERSI NR 41 TC 0 J9 ENVIRON INT BP 349 EP 358 PY 2006 PD APR VL 32 IS 3 GA 027IP UT ISI:000236409200007 ER PT J AU Mitchell, TD Hulme, M New, M TI Climate data for political areas SO AREA LA English DT Article C1 Univ E Anglia, Sch Environm Sci, Tyndall Ctr Climate Change Res, Norwich NR4 7BL, Norfolk, England. Univ Oxford, Sch Geog & Environm, Oxford OX1 3TB, England. RP Mitchell, TD, Univ E Anglia, Sch Environm Sci, Tyndall Ctr Climate Change Res, Norwich NR4 7BL, Norfolk, England. CR ARRHENIUS S, 1896, LONDON EDINBURGH DUB, V41, P237 ARRHENIUS S, 1896, P ROYAL SWEDISH ACAD, V22 BARNETT J, 2001, CLIMATE DANGERS ATOL GIORGI F, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 KELLOGG WW, 1987, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V10, P113 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 NEW M, 1999, J CLIMATE, V12, P829 NEW M, 2000, J CLIMATE, V13, P2217 STANHILL G, 2001, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V48, P515 TYNDALL J, 1863, PHILOS MAG, V4, P200 WATSON RT, 1998, REGIONAL IMPACTS CLI, V1, P1 WHITE KS, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 NR 12 TC 9 J9 AREA BP 109 EP 112 PY 2002 PD MAR VL 34 IS 1 GA 539CN UT ISI:000174852300012 ER PT J AU Ji, GX TI China versus Asian Pacific energy security SO KOREAN JOURNAL OF DEFENSE ANALYSIS LA English DT Article C1 Modern Management Ctr, Inst Int Strategy Studies, Shanghai, Peoples R China. RP Ji, GX, Modern Management Ctr, Inst Int Strategy Studies, Shanghai, Peoples R China. AB The global energy equation is not promising, and the oil supply prospects in world oil markets are not optimistic. It is not an unwarranted anxiety that the world will be faced with the real challenge of oil decline and shortage before long. The situation will be different from the 1970s energy crisis which was caused not by any underlying lack of supply but by Middle East politics. The technology for oil exploration and production is marching forward nowadays, but will not prevent the impending shortfall in the oil supply. Market forces are wonderful, but they cannot change the fundamental energy supply picture in the region. It is a baseless conjecture to emphasize the oversupply of oil. Energy security is of particular importance in the Asia Pacific owning to its physical unavailability to meet demands. The present Asian financial crisis has already had an impact on Asian countries' economic growth rates and on their energy demand. However, in the mid- and long-term perspectives, Asian Pacific energy demand growth can be expected to resume at a high rate. Energy security in the Asia Pacific involves three dimensions: oil and natural gas supply security due to the big gap between regional demand and supply; environmental security due to the high percentage of coal in the regional energy structure; and nuclear security due to the regional commitment to expand nuclear power plants. Among the three, oil and natural gas supply security is the key issue of Asia Pacific energy security. China has become an important player in the increasingly competitive global oil and gas markers. Its involvement in the Asian and global oil and gas energy systems is a new development. Asian Pacific energy security is closely related to China's energy security. China plays a critical role in respect to the above-mentioned three dimensions of energy security. China will be at the root of the region's energy problem. How China solves its enormous energy needs will be one of the greatest challenges over the coming decade. A series of concrete measures in respect to cooperative oil and gas supply security, cooperative environmental security, and cooperative nuclear security between China and other Asian Pacific countries should be worked out. Whether China can manage the growth in its energy demand while trying to wean itself from coal is a big question facing the region. China's energy consumption should be fitted into the big international and regional energy markets, and regional energy cooperation in accommodating China's entry into those markets is of great importance to the region and to the world. Asian Pacific energy security cooperation would not only alleviate regional energy tension, but also promote the whole process of building cooperative regional security and of China's further integration into the world community. CR 1988, BEIJING REV 0622, P15 1995, PETROLEUM ECONOM OCT, P21 1996, BEIJING REV 0622, P16 1997, CHINA DAILY 0917 1997, DAILY YOMIURI T 1102 1997, INTELLIGENCE DI 1121 1997, OUTLOOK WEEKLY 1112, P11 1997, PETROLEUM EC SEP, P70 1997, PETROLEUM EC SEP, P8 1997, PETROLEUM ECONOM SEP, P50 1997, YOMIURI SHIMBUN 0412 1998, CHINA DAILY 0301 1998, CHINA DAILY 0511 1998, IGCC NEWS LETT, V14, P10 1998, IZVESTIA MOSCOW 0418 CAMPBELL CJ, 1998, SCI AM MAR, P78 CLAWSON P, 1997, STRATEGIC FORUM DRYSDALE P, 1995, ASIAN PACIFIC EC LIT, V9, P1 EASTERBROOK G, 1998, LOS ANGELES TIM 0607 FESHARAKI F, 1995, ENERGY MINERALS SERI, V1, P44 HAGEN RE, 1997, OUTLOOK NUCL POWER I, P5 JOHNSON CJ, 1997, 4 APEC COAL FLOW SEM, P11 KANEKO K, 1998, 37 IGCC, P17 KLEBNIKOV P, 1998, FORBES 0406, P107 MACDONALD GJ, 1995, 1 IGCC MAY M, 1996, 24 IGCC U CAL, P13 MILLER CL, 1997, 4 APEC COAL FLOW SEM, P4 SIDDIQI T, 1997, ENV CHANGE REGIONAL SIMMONS MR, 1997, CHINAS INSATIABLE EN, P10 VALENCIA MJ, 1997, SURVIVAL, V39, P101 WEEKS SR, 1997, NE AS COOP DIAL NEAC XU XJ, 1997, ASIAN OIL GAS MEGATR, P3 XU ZJ, 1997, OPEC B VIENNA JAN, P16 YERGIN D, 1998, FOREIGN AFFAIRS MAR, P39 NR 34 TC 0 J9 KOREAN J DEF ANAL BP 109 EP + PY 1998 PD WIN VL 10 IS 2 GA 217XP UT ISI:000081524500006 ER PT J AU Adger, WN Arnell, NW Tompkins, EL TI Successful adaptation to climate change across scales SO GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS LA English DT Article C1 Univ E Anglia, Sch Environm Sci, Tyndall Ctr Climate Change Res, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. Univ E Anglia, CSERGE, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. Univ Southampton, Sch Geog, Southampton, Hants, England. RP Adger, WN, Univ E Anglia, Sch Environm Sci, Tyndall Ctr Climate Change Res, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. AB Climate change impacts and responses are presently observed in physical and ecological systems. Adaptation to these impacts is increasingly being observed in both physical and ecological systems as well as in human adjustments to resource availability and risk at different spatial and societal scales. We review the nature of adaptation and the implications of different spatial scales for these processes. We outline a set of normative evaluative criteria for judging the success of adaptations at different scales. We argue that elements of effectiveness, efficiency, equity and legitimacy are important in judging success in terms of the sustainability of development pathways into an uncertain future. We further argue that each of these elements of decision-making is implicit within presently formulated scenarios of socio-economic futures of both emission trajectories and adaptation, though with different weighting. The process by which adaptations are to be judged at different scales will involve new and challenging institutional processes. (C) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 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RP Sarch, MT, Middlesex Univ, Flood Hazard Res Ctr, Enfield EN3 4SF, Middx, England. AB Lake Chad is a vitally important wetland in the semi-arid Sahel corridor. It provides the basis of many thousands of livelihoods which depend on its seasonal fluctuations to renew fish stocks, farmland and rangeland. This paper describes how access to farmland and fishing rights has evolved on the Nigerian shore of the lake. The paper aims to assess the applicability of different institutional approaches to natural resource management on the lake shore. Although many recent approaches to natural resource management have reflected a 'Tragedy of the Commons' approach, a growing literature both in support and critical of Hardin's (1968) thesis has followed. Four distinct approaches are considered: (1) institutional intervention to prevent 'tragedy'; (2) institution erosion brought about by such interventions; (3) models of institutional adaptation to resource scarcity; and (4) approaches which perceive institutions as a crucial determinant of social and economic development In examining which institutional approaches may be relevant at Lake Chad, it is anticipated that this paper will provide insights which will be relevant to policy-makers, resource managers and students working in environments where resource fluctuation inhibits stable property rights and state resource management has proved neither feasible nor successful. The western shore of Lake Chad has been under the jurisdiction of Borno State in its various guises since the end of the fourteenth century and is currently one of 36 states in the Federal Republic of Nigeria. Although the administrative status of Borno itself has varied, it has been dominated by a Kanuri aristocracy for most of ifs existence. The Kanuri administration has continued to operate in a remarkably similar way over the past 150 years. Traditionally, it has played a crucial role in allocating access to farm land. In recent years, the 'Kanuri administration' has not only maintained its pre-colonial authority over farming on the lake shore, but has expanded if to cover new areas of the lake floor and the increasingly lucrative fishing opportunities which federal government has been unable to regulate. This success suggests that collaboration with the organisations which operate such institutions could be beneficial, if not essential, to the success of natural resource management. (C) 2001 Academic Press. CR *BORN STAT, 1982, BORN STAT LOC REV CO *IIED, 1999, LAND TEN RES ACC W A ARNASON R, 1994, MARINE RESOURCE EC, V8, P201 AZEZA NI, 1977, P C HANDL PROC MARK BERRY S, 1989, AFRICA, V59, P41 BERRY S, 1993, NO CONDITION IS PERM BOSERUP E, 1965, CONDITIONS AGR GROWT BRENNER L, 1973, SHEHUS KUKAWA HIST A BRINKERHOFF DW, 1995, REV CAN ETUD DEV, V16, P201 BROMLEY DW, 1989, WORLD BANK DISCUSSIO, V57 CARNEY D, 1998, SUSTAINABLE RURAL LI CIRIACYWANTRUP SV, 1975, NAT RESOUR J, V15, P713 DEMSETZ H, 1967, AM ECON REV, V57, P347 ELLIS F, 2000, RURAL LIVELIHOOD DIV FLAM SD, 1982, CANADIAN J FISHERIES, V39, P1314 FREUDENBERGER MS, 1993, QUESTION COMMONS SAH GORDON HS, 1954, J POLITICAL EC, V62, P124 GROVE AT, 1985, NIGER ITS NEIGHBOURS HARDIN G, 1968, SCIENCE, V162, P1243 HARRIS PG, 1942, J R ANTHR I GREAT BR, V72, P23 HAUGERUD A, 1989, AFRICA, V59, P61 HUTCHINSON CF, 1992, ENVIRONMENT, V34, P17 HUTCHINSON CF, 1992, ENVIRONMENT, V34, P40 ISHIORHO SA, 1996, GROUND WATER, V34, P819 JODHA NS, 1986, ECON POLIT WEEKLY, V21, P1169 JODHA NS, 1992, 169 WORLD BANK KOLAWOLE A, 1986, THESIS U CAMBRIDGE KONE A, 1985, 360 FAO, P95 KURLANSKY, 1997, COD LAWSON R, 1984, EC FISHERIES DEV LEACH M, 1997, IDS BULL-I DEV STUD, V28, P1 LEACH M, 1997, IDS BULL-I DEV STUD, V28, P4 LEMOALLE J, 1991, 445 FAO, P54 MADAKAN SP, 1996, INVESTIGATION FISHER MALTHUS T, 1803, ESSAY PRINCIPLE POPU MATTHEWS R, 1988, J CAN STUD, V23, P158 MCEVEDY C, 1995, PENGUIN ATLAS AFRICA MEEREN AGL, 1980, FIDPNIR74001 FAO MOOREHEAD R, 1989, COMMON PROPERTY RESO MOSCHETTA G, 1991, 445 FAO, P94 MOSER CON, 1998, WORLD DEV, V26, P1 NEILAND AE, 1990, ENVIRON CONSERV, V18, P111 NEILAND AE, 1993, 24 CTR EC MAN AQ RES NETTING RM, 1993, SMALLHOLDERS HOUSEHO NORTH D, 1990, I I CHANGE EC PERFOR OLIVRY JC, 1996, HYDROLOGIE LAC TCHAD OLSON M, 1965, LOGIC COLLECTIVE ACT PAINTER T, 1994, AFRICA, V64, P447 PALMER HR, 1929, GAZETTEERS NO PROVIN, V2 PLATTEAU JP, 1996, DEV CHANGE, V27, P29 SARCH MT, 1996, J ENVIRON MANAGE, V48, P305 SARCH MT, 1997, DEV POLICY REV, V15, P1 SARCH MT, 1999, THESIS U E ANGLIA SARCH MT, 2000, BIENN C INT I FISH E SARCH MT, 2000, GEOGRAPHICAL J, V166 SCHLAGER E, 1992, LAND ECON, V68, P249 SCOONES I, 1998, 72 IDS SHEPHERD G, 1991, DEV POLICY REV, V9, P151 STAUCH A, 1977, ORSTOM H, V11, P201 SWIFT J, 1989, IDS B, V20, P8 SWYNNERTON RJM, 1954, PLAN INTENSIFY DEV A TEMPLE O, 1919, NOTES TRIBES PROVINC THOMSON JT, 1983, C WORLD EC WORLD FOR TIFFEN M, 1994, MORE PEOPLE LESS ERO TILHO J, 1928, ANN GEOGR, V37, P238 TOULMIN C, 1991, IDS BULL-I DEV STUD, V22, P22 UCHENDU VC, 1979, J AFRICAN STUDIES, V6, P62 WESTERN D, 1994, NATURAL CONNECTIONS WILLIAMS TO, 1998, NATURAL RESOURCE PER, V38 NR 69 TC 0 J9 J ENVIRON MANAGE BP 185 EP 199 PY 2001 PD JUN VL 62 IS 2 GA 438AK UT ISI:000169031400005 ER PT J AU Mallick, DL Rahman, A Alam, M Juel, ASM Ahmad, AN Alam, SS TI Case study 3: Bangladesh floods in Bangladesh: A shift from disaster management towards disaster preparedness SO IDS BULLETIN-INSTITUTE OF DEVELOPMENT STUDIES LA English DT Article AB Bangladesh is a Least Developed Country (LDC) facing many impacts of climate change in the form of more frequent and severe floods, cyclones, droughts, sea level rise and salinity affecting large parts of the population through impacts on livelihoods, natural systems, agriculture, water supply and health. In the last two decades, Bangladesh has experienced four devastating floods, which may provide an early indication of the kinds of impacts associated with increased frequency and intensity of floods. This case study focuses on how the Disaster Management Bureau (DMB) takes into consideration the real needs and priorities of the community, while formulating and implementing programmes to enhance flood preparedness. This is being done through the Comprehensive Disaster Management Programme (CDMP). Traditional disaster management models focus on disaster relief and recovery. But these have done little to redress rising levels of risk. An all-risk management framework set out in the CDMP seeks to raise the capacities of at-risk communities, while lowering their vulnerability to specific hazards. The aim is to target resources towards risk reduction through mainstreaming disaster management within development and emergency relief programmes and away from pure relief. Making an active shift towards a holistic risk reduction approach that shifts attention towards prevention and preparedness makes good sense for governments, funders and communities. But it requires fundamental transformations in policy and institutions. This takes time and requires true involvement and dedication due to resource constraints, bureaucracy, vested interests and poor governance. CR *BBS, 2002, STAT YB BANGL *BCAS, 1998, NAT REP AS LEAST COS *BDPC, 2004, FLOOD VULN RISK RED *DEP ENV GOB, 1994, SUMM REP VULN BANGL *EC REL DEV GOB, 2004, BANGL NAT STRAT EC G *GOB UNDP, 2005, MILL DEV GOALS BANGL AHMED AU, 1998, VULNERABILITY WATER AHMED QM, 2005, MILLENNIUM DEV GOALS ALAM M, 2005, GATEKEEPER SERIES, V118 HAGGART K, 1994, RIVERS LIFE BANGLADE HUQ S, 2002, CLIMATE CHANGE 5 YEA MALLICK D, 1995, PEOPL C FAP BANGL EN MALLICK D, 1998, INDIGENOUS KNOWLEDGE RAHMAN A, 2004, CLIMATE POLICY 21 CE RAHMAN R, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE SUSTA RAHMAN S, 2004, CAPACITY BUILDING PE RASHID H, 1991, GEOGRAPHY BANGLADESH NR 17 TC 0 J9 IDS BULL-INST DEVELOP STUD BP 53 EP + PY 2005 PD OCT VL 36 IS 4 GA 989QD UT ISI:000233687900005 ER PT J AU Hewitt, K TI Safe place or 'catastrophic society'? Perspectives on hazards and disasters in Canada SO CANADIAN GEOGRAPHER-GEOGRAPHE CANADIEN LA English DT Review C1 Wilfrid Laurier Univ, Dept Geog & Environm Studies, Waterloo, ON N2L 3C5, Canada. RP Hewitt, K, Wilfrid Laurier Univ, Dept Geog & Environm Studies, Waterloo, ON N2L 3C5, Canada. AB The essay introduces public risk and destructive events in Canada, their conceptual and policy implications. The discussion is developed in four main steps. First, some widely held, if contradictory perceptions of public security ave identified. A relatively high level of personal safety for most Canadians is attributed to large government and private investments. But these have not prevented recurring disasters, nor singular vulnerability for certain groups and parts of the country; Meanwhile, some novel dangers of modern living compromise the safety of all Canadians. The second section examines evidence of losses from a broad range of hazards, and related risk-averting investments. The national geography of dangers is shown to have been transformed and reorganized by post-World War ii developments. Losses, even from natural hazards, are identified with common, nationwide behaviours and infrastructure, especially motorised mobility and consumer products. A fourth section leaks at some appropriate conceptual frameworks. Charles Perrow's idea of 'organizational society' is considered, and Ulrich Beck's of 'risk society', including his view that late modern societies shift towards a 'catastrophic' condition. In general, the Canadian scene and these ideas support a human ecological view of modernity but challenge an agent-specific and extreme event approach that had prevailed in hazards geography 'Manufactured' vulnerability is a neglected but decisive element. The social space of risks is shown to be recast around changing priorities for, and social justice in, public security and emerging crises of personal safety Risk aversion turns upon questions of the acceptability of risks, acceptance for and by whom, and how it is achieved. For academic work, this suggests a reexamination of risk knowledge and its 'social construction'. 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SACCO VF, 1990, GEN SOCIAL SURVEY AN, V2 SAGAN SD, 1993, LIMITS SAFETY ORG AC SCHETTLER T, 1999, GENERATIONS RISK REP SHKYLNIK AM, 1985, POISON STRONGER LOVE SHRADERFRECHETT.KS, 1991, RISK RATIONALITY PHI SIBLEY D, 1995, GEOGRAPHIES EXCLUSIO SIGGNER AJ, 1989, CANADIAN SOCIAL WIN, P8 SILVER C, 1994, CANADIAN SOCIAL AUT, P15 SOULARD F, 1998, CANADIAN SOCIAL WIN, P21 STEINBERG T, 2000, ACTS GOD UNNATURAL H STEWART W, 1998, DISMANTLING STATE DO STOREY K, 1993, P C I SOC EC RES ST STOREY K, 1997, DEPT GEOGRAPHY PUBLI, V48, P85 SWOL K, 1997, POLICE PERSONNEL EXP TURNER BA, 1978, MAN MADE DISASTERS USHER PJ, 1995, COMMUNICATING CONTAM VILLENEUVE PJ, 1994, CHRONIC DIS CANADA, V15, P123 WAGNER P, 1960, HUMAN USE EARTH WATERSTONE M, 1992, RISK SOC INTERACTION WILSON ME, 1994, ANN NY ACAD SCI, P740 NR 124 TC 1 J9 CAN GEOGR-GEOGR CAN BP 325 EP 341 PY 2000 PD WIN VL 44 IS 4 GA 421GU UT ISI:000168057300002 ER PT J AU Martinez, ML Gallego-Fernandez, JB Garcia-Franco, JG Moctezuma, C Jimenez, CD TI Assessment of coastal dune vulnerability to natural and anthropogenic disturbances along the Gulf of Mexico SO ENVIRONMENTAL CONSERVATION LA English DT Article C1 Inst Ecol, Dept Ecol Funct, Xalapa 91070, Veracruz, Mexico. Univ Sevilla, Dept Biol Vegetal & Ecol, E-41080 Seville, Spain. RP Martinez, ML, Inst Ecol, Dept Ecol Funct, AC,Km 2-5 Antigua Carretera & Coatepec, Xalapa 91070, Veracruz, Mexico. AB Human population density is globally three times higher along the coasts than inland, and thus environmental impacts of human activities are greater in magnitude on coastal ecosystems such as beaches and dunes. Vulnerability assessment (the loss of capacity to return to the original dynamic state after system displacement) is thus necessary to evaluate the conservation status and determine the most relevant disturbance events. Twenty-six sites along 902 km of Gulf of Mexico coastline, varying in conservation status and sedimentary dynamics, were sampled. At each site a vulnerability index (VI) was calculated based on variables that described geomorphological condition, marine influence, aeolian influence, vegetation condition and human effects. Vulnerability was very variable along the coast and only 19% of the sampled locations (mostly in the central Gulf of Mexico) displayed low vulnerability. Cluster analyses of the values assigned to the checklists for each location grouped the studied sites into three, according to their VI values. Low vulnerability locations had abundant sediment supply and low human impact. Locations with medium to high VI were mostly affected by their natural geomorphological and marine features and had medium to intense human activities. Management strategies should consider the observed variability in vulnerability, the natural dynamics of these systems and the role of human activities and interests, in order to achieve adequate policies and establish well-informed priorities for integrated coastal zone management. 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World Bank, Washington, DC 20433 USA. RP Kurukulasuriya, P, Yale FES, 210 Prospect St, New Haven, CT 06511 USA. AB This study applies the Ricardian technique to estimate the effect of climate change on the smallholder agriculture sector in Sri Lanka. The main contribution of the paper is the use of household-level data to analyze long-term climate impacts on farm profitability. Household-level data allows us to control for a host of factors such as human and physical capital available to farmers as well as adaptation mechanisms at the farm level. We find that non-climate variables explain about half the variation in net revenues. However, our results suggest that climate change will have a significant impact on smallholder profitability. In particular, reductions in precipitation during key agricultural months can be devastating. At the national level, a change in net revenues of between -23% and +22% is likely depending on the climate change scenario simulated. These impacts will vary considerably across geographic areas from losses of 67% to gains that more than double current net revenues. The largest adverse impacts are anticipated in the dry zones of the North Central region and the dry zones of the South Eastern regions of Sri Lanka. On the other hand, the intermediate and wet zones are likely to benefit, mostly due to the predicted increase in rainfall. CR WATSON RT, 1998, REGIONAL IMPACTS CLI, V1, P1 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 *IRI, 2003, IRI NET ASS PRED SRI *RRDI, 2003, AGR ZON SRI LANK RIC *WORLD BANK, 2001, SRI LANK INT SURV SL *WORLD BANK, 2003, GLOB EC PROSP *WORLD BANK, 2003, UNPUB RES PROPOSAL C ADAMS R, 1999, IMPACT CLIMATE CHANG ADAMS RM, 1990, NATURE, V345, P219 ADAMS RM, 1999, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V41, P363 CLINE WR, 1996, AM ECON REV, V86, P1309 COLLIER P, 1999, J ECON LIT, V37, P62 DARWIN RF, 1999, AM ECON REV, V89, P1049 DINAR A, 1998, 402 WORLD BANK EMORI S, 1999, J METEOROL SOC JPN, V77, P1299 GORDON C, 2000, CLIM DYNAM, V16, P147 GORDON HB, 1997, MON WEATHER REV, V125, P875 KURUKULASURIYA P, 2003, CLIMATE CHANGE SERIE, V91 MADDISON D, 2000, EUR REV AGRIC ECON, V27, P519 MENDELSOHN R, 1994, AM ECON REV, V84, P753 MENDELSOHN R, 1999, AM ECON REV, V89, P1049 MENDELSOHN R, 1999, WORLD BANK RES OBSER, V14, P277 MENDELSOHN R, 2001, ENVIRON DEV ECON 1, V6, P85 MENDELSOHN R, 2003, CLIMATE SCENARIOS US MENDELSOHN R, 2003, LAND ECON, V79, P328 MOLUA EL, 2002, ENVIRON DEV ECON 3, V7, P529 QUIGGIN J, 1999, AM ECON REV, V89, P1044 REILLY JM, 1995, AM J AGR ECON, V77, P727 ROSENZWEIG C, 1994, NATURE, V367, P133 WASHINGTON WM, 2000, CLIM DYNAM, V16, P755 WHITE H, 1980, ECONOMETRICA, V48, P817 NR 31 TC 1 J9 CLIMATIC CHANGE BP 39 EP 59 PY 2007 PD MAR VL 81 IS 1 GA 134NY UT ISI:000244091300004 ER PT J AU GORNITZ, V TI GLOBAL COASTAL HAZARDS FROM FUTURE SEA-LEVEL RISE SO GLOBAL AND PLANETARY CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 COLUMBIA UNIV,NEW YORK,NY 10025. RP GORNITZ, V, NASA,GODDARD SPACE FLIGHT CTR,INST SPACE STUDIES,GREENBELT,MD 20771. AB A rise of sea level between 0.3 and 0.9 m by the end of the next century, caused by predicted greenhouse climate warming, would endanger human populations, cities, ports, and wetlands in low-lying coastal areas, through inundation, erosion and salinization. The consequences of a global sea level rise would be spatially non-uniform because of local or regional vertical crustal movements, differential resistance to erosion, varying wave climates, and changeable longshore currents. Although many factors can influence sea level, leading to a noisy record, various studies utilizing tide-gauge data find an average global rate of sea level rise of 1-2 mm/yr, over the last 100 years. This trend is part of a general rise over the last 300 years, since the low point of the Little Ice Age. Sea level rise may accelerate 3-8 times over present rates, within the next century. The permanently inundated coastal zone would extend to a depth equivalent to the vertical rise in sea level. Major river deltas, coastal wetlands and coral islands would be most affected. Episodic flooding by storm waves and surges would penetrate even farther inland. Beach and cliff erosion will be accentuated. Saltwater penetration into coastal aquifers and estuaries could contaminate urban water supplies and affect agricultural production. Research on relative risks and impacts of sea level rise on specific localities is still at an early stage. Development of a global coastal hazards data base, intended to provide an overview of the relative vulnerabilities of the world's coastlines, is described in this paper. To date, information on seven variables, associated with inundation and erosion hazards, has been compiled for the U.S., and parts of Canada and Mexico. A coastal vulnerability index (CVI) has been designed to flag high risk coastal segments. Preliminary results are presented for the eastern United States, as a test case. 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RP Makropoulos, CK, Univ London Imperial Coll Sci Technol & Med, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, London, England. AB Water-demand management is a pro-active approach to water conservation, which considers water-consumption 'needs' as 'demands' rather than requirements. Taking into account a variety of engineering strategies to reduce urban water consumption, this research discusses the use of a tool for developing a master plan for site-specific implementation. The tool links the characteristics of urban areas (engineering, economic and social) with the applicability of particular water-demand management strategies within a fuzzy logic framework, to provide spatially-sensitive decision support - both at a strategic and an application level. The initial results, under various user-defined scenarios, are presented and discussed. It is argued that decision-support tools are beneficial in assisting the water industry to move towards a more pro-active approach to urban water management, similar to the approach which has already been adopted by the Telecommunication and Energy sector. CR *NAT RIV AUTH, 1995, SAV WAT *OFF WAT SERV, 1998, REP LEAK WAT EFF 199 *OFF WAT SERV, 1999, REP LEAK WAT EFF 199 BUTLER D, 2000, URBAN DRAINAGE COLEMAN T, 1999, OPTIMISATION TOOLBOX FOXTON T, 2000, J CHART INST WATER E, V14, P171 HOEKSTRA AY, 1998, WATER POLICY, V1, P605 KLIR G, 1998, UNCERTAINTY BASED IN LARSEN TA, 1997, WATER SCI TECHNOL, V35, P3 MAKROPOULOS CK, 2003, J WATER RES PL-ASCE, V129, P69 MANDEL J, 2001, UNCERTAIN RULE BASED MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 MENDEL JM, 2000, SIGNAL PROCESS, V80, P913 MOHAMED AS, 2000, PHYS CHEM EARTH PT B, V25, P251 OHAGAN M, 1988, P 22 ANN IEEE AS C S, P681 OPTIZ E, 1998, URBAN WATER DEMAND M ROGERS P, 1985, GLOBAL POSSIBLE RESO RUSSAC DAV, 1991, J INST WATER ENV MAN, V5, P342 SHANNON C, 1962, MATH THEORY COMMUNIC THOMAS DN, 2000, J CHART INST WATER E, V14, P442 WACKERNAGEL M, 1996, OUR ECOLOGICAL FOOTP YAGER RR, 1988, IEEE T SYST MAN CYB, V18, P183 NR 22 TC 0 J9 WATER ENVIRON J BP 29 EP 35 PY 2004 PD MAR VL 18 IS 1 GA 900JN UT ISI:000227211300007 ER PT J AU Malone, TC Hemsley, JM TI Developing the IOOS for improved management and mitigation of coastal inundation SO MARINE TECHNOLOGY SOCIETY JOURNAL LA English DT Article C1 Ocean US Off Integrated & Sustained Ocean Observat, Arlington, VA USA. RP Malone, TC, Ocean US Off Integrated & Sustained Ocean Observat, Arlington, VA USA. AB Ocean.US was established by the National Ocean Research Leadership Council in 2000 to (1) design and prepare strategic plans for implementing and improving an integrated ocean observing system (IOOS) for the United States, (2) promote coordinated implementation of these plans, and (3) promote research and development needed to improve operational capabilities. Among the highest priorities for phased development of the IOOS is improving capabilities to predict, manage, and mitigate effects of coastal inundation caused by hurricanes, tropical storms, extra-tropical cyclones, nor'easters, and tsunamis. Based on the needs of three categories of users (real-time responders, post event re-builders, and long-term planners), high priorities for IOOS development are to (1) improve the accuracy and timeliness of forecast maps of the time-space extent of coastal inundation and (2) periodically provide accurate, high resolution, timely assessments of changes in susceptibility (vulnerability and risk) to and impacts of coastal inundation, Data requirements and advances in operational modeling capabilities to address these objectives and actions needed to achieve them are described. A key action for meeting these requirements is the development of community modeling approaches to enable more effective collaboration among research and operational communities to improve and expand operational modeling capabilities in support of decision making by all three categories of users. Community modeling activities should include coordinated development of observational and modeling capabilities and the development of test beds, ensemble modeling capabilities, and experiments to validate models and improve predictive skills (e.g., Observing System Simulation Experiments). CR *OC ACT PLAN, 2004, BUSH ADM RESP US COM *OC US, 2002, US PUBL OC US, V1 *OC US, 2005, P 2 IOOS IMPL C MULT, V12 *OC US, 2006, OC US PUBL, V9 *UNESCO, 2003, 125 GOOS *US COMM OC POL, 2004, OC BLUEPR 21 CENT FI BOTSFORD LW, 1997, SCIENCE, V277, P509 GARDNER R, 2001, SCALING RELATIONS EX MALONE TC, 2005, SEA GLOBAL COASTAL O, V13, P757 PRANDLE D, 2005, MODELING COASTAL SHE NR 10 TC 0 J9 MAR TECHNOL SOC J BP 45 EP 55 PY 2006 PD WIN VL 40 IS 4 GA 146YK UT ISI:000244970400007 ER PT J AU White, RR TI Managing and interpreting uncertainty for climate change risk SO BUILDING RESEARCH AND INFORMATION LA English DT Article C1 Univ Toronto, Inst Environm Studies, Toronto, ON M5S 3E8, Canada. RP White, RR, Univ Toronto, Inst Environm Studies, Toronto, ON M5S 3E8, Canada. AB Climate change is a significant risk for the built environment because it implies not only warmer weather, but also more extreme weather events, such as storms, droughts and heat waves. Considerable uncertainty about the future also exists, partly because of the response of society's apparent reluctance to mitigate climate change by reducing fossil fuel consumption. An adaptive response to the challenge draws on the literature on climate change, the urban environment, natural hazards and risk analysis. Two concepts - life cycle costs and the avoidance of ruin - provide a useful framework for factoring the uncertainty associated with climate change into a risk analysis for the built environment. Monitoring, prediction, data management and communication are the unglamorous underpinnings of a successful urban risk-management strategy. For cities to develop a significantly improved response capacity, the active support of senior levels of government is essential because cities have neither the legal powers nor the resources to tackle climate change on their own. Ultimately, the biggest challenges are institutional and behavioural. 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SO EPIDEMIOLOGY LA English DT Editorial Material C1 Harvard Univ, Sch Med, Ctr Hlth & Global Environm, Boston, MA 02115 USA. RP Epstein, PR, Harvard Univ, Sch Med, Ctr Hlth & Global Environm, 333 Longwood Ave,Suite 640, Boston, MA 02115 USA. CR *EPA, 2001, EPA WORKSH CLIM CHAN *NAT RES COUNC NAT, 2001, ABR CLIM CHANG IN SU *WHO, 1996, WORLD HLTH REP 1996 ALBRITTON DL, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 BOUMA MJ, 1997, TROP MED INT HEALTH, V2, P1122 BRADSHAW WE, 2001, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V98, P14509 BRAGA ALF, 2001, EPIDEMIOLOGY, V12, P662 BROECKER WS, 1997, SCIENCE, V278, P1582 CIFUENTES L, 2001, SCIENCE, V293, P1257 DAVIS D, 2001, LANCET, V358, P1737 EASTERLING DR, 1997, SCIENCE, V277, P363 ELIAS SA, 1994, QUATERNARY INSECTS T EPSTEIN PR, 1998, B AM METEOROL SOC, V79, P409 EPSTEIN PR, 1999, SCIENCE, V285, P347 HAINES A, 2000, CAN MED ASSOC J, V163, P729 HOUGHTON JT, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 KARL TR, 1995, NATURE, V377, P217 KOVATS RS, 1999, WHOSDEPHE994 WHO KRABILL W, 1999, SCIENCE, V283, P1522 KRIEBEL D, 2001, ENVIRON HEALTH PERSP, V109, P871 LEVITUS S, 2000, SCIENCE, V287, P2225 LINDGREN E, 2001, LANCET, V358, P16 LINTHICUM KJ, 1999, SCIENCE, V285, P397 MARTENS WJM, 1997, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V35, P145 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 MCMICHAEL AJ, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE HUMAN MCMICHAEL AJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 PARK JM, 1999, PEDIATRICS 3, V104, P827 PATZ JA, 1996, JAMA-J AM MED ASSOC, V275, P217 PETIT JR, 1999, NATURE, V399, P429 ROTHMAN KJ, 1976, AM J EPIDEMIOL, V104, P587 ROTHROCK DA, 1999, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V26, P3469 SEMILETOV IP, 2000, FRESHWATER BUDGET AR, P323 TRENBERTH KE, 1997, CONSEQUENCES, V5, P3 WALTHER GR, 2002, NATURE, V416, P389 WAYNE P, 2002, ANN ALLERG ASTHMA IM, V88, P279 WOODRUFF RE, 2002, EPIDEMIOLOGY, V13, P384 NR 37 TC 3 J9 EPIDEMIOLOGY BP 373 EP 375 PY 2002 PD JUL VL 13 IS 4 GA 565PL UT ISI:000176378600001 ER PT J AU Agrawala, S TI Adaptation, development assistance and planning: Challenges and opportunities SO IDS BULLETIN-INSTITUTE OF DEVELOPMENT STUDIES LA English DT Article C1 Harvard Univ, Cambridge, MA 02138 USA. RP Agrawala, S, Harvard Univ, Cambridge, MA 02138 USA. AB This article highlights emerging insights from recent Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) work in six developing countries: Bangladesh, Egypt, Fiji, Nepal, Tanzania and Uruguay, on the synergies and trade-offs involved in mainstreaming adaptation to climate change in development assistance, projects, and plans. Over the medium to long term, there is greater potential to adapt to climate change impacts as part of core development activity, compared with the financing of action on adaptation initiated from within the climate regime. Furthermore, OECD work highlights that development activities might need to adapt to medium/long-term trends in climate, and not just current weather extremes and climate variability. Policy coherence between climate and development however remains a major concern. There is a need to downscale the discourse on adaptation from a multilateral negotiations context, to a more substantive dialogue between sectoral planners, relevant stakeholders and climate experts on how best to operationalise adaptation as part of ongoing development activity. CR MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 *OECD, 2003, COMENVEPOCDCDDAC2003 *OECD, 2003, COMENVEPOXDCDDAC2003 *OECD, 2003, DEV CLIM CHANG NEP F *OECD, 2004, DEV CLIM CHANG EQYPT *OECD, 2004, DEV CLIM CHANG UR FO *WORLD BANK, 2000, BANG CLIM CHANG SUST *WORLD BANK, 2000, CIT SEAS STORM MANAG AGRAWALA S, 2002, COLUMBIA J ENV LAW, V27, P309 AGRAWALS S, 2002, DEV CLIMATE CHANGE P BURTON I, 1999, CLIMATE CHANGE SERIE DESSAI S, 2003, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V13, P149 ERIKSEN S, 2003, PRO POOR CLIMATE ADA KATES RW, 1997, ENVIRONMENT, V39, P29 KLEIN RJT, 2001, ADAPTATION CLIMATE C SPERLING F, 2003, POVERTY CLIMATE CHAN NR 16 TC 0 J9 IDS BULL-INST DEVELOP STUD BP 50 EP + PY 2004 PD JUL VL 35 IS 3 GA 844HK UT ISI:000223148700008 ER PT J AU McMahon, TA Adeloye, AJ Zhou, SL TI Understanding performance measures of reservoirs SO JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY LA English DT Article C1 Univ Melbourne, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Parkville, Vic 3010, Australia. Heriot Watt Univ, Sch Built Environm, Edinburgh EH14 4AS, Midlothian, Scotland. RP McMahon, TA, Univ Melbourne, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Parkville, Vic 3010, Australia. AB This paper examines 10 reservoir performance metrics including time and volume based reliability, several measures of resilience and vulnerability, drought risk index and sustainability. Both historical and stochastically generated streamflows are considered as inflows to a range of hypothetical storage on four rivers-Earn river in the United Kingdom, Hatchie river in the United States, Richmond river in Australia and the Vis river in South Africa. The monthly stochastic sequences were generated applying an autoregressive lag one model to Box-Cox transformed annual streamflows incorporating parameter uncertainty by the Stedinger-Taylor method and the annual flows disaggregated by the method of fragments. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. CR ADELOYE AJ, 2001, WATER RESOUR RES, V37, P73 BOX GEP, 1964, J ROY STAT SOC B MET, V26, P211 FANAI N, 1997, INT J SUST DEV WORLD, V4, P259 GELMAN A, 1995, BAYESIAN DATA ANAL, P526 HASHIMOTO T, 1982, WATER RESOUR RES, V18, P14 HAZEN A, 1914, T AM SOC CIVIL ENG, V77, P1539 HURST HE, 1951, T AM SOC CIVIL ENG, V116, P770 KLEMES V, 1981, WATER RESOUR RES, V17, P737 LENCE BJ, 1997, INT J SUST DEV WORLD, V4, P245 LOUCKS DP, 1997, HYDROLOG SCI J, V42, P513 MATALAS NC, 1977, WATER RESOURCES SYST MCMAHON TA, 1992, GLOBAL RUNOFF CONTIN MCMAHON TA, 2005, WATER RESOURCES YIEL MOY WS, 1986, WATER RESOUR RES, V22, P2135 PEGRAM GGS, 1980, J HYDROL, V47, P269 PRETTO PB, 1997, WATER RESOUR RES, V33, P703 SALAS JD, 1980, APPL MODELLING HYDRO SHAPIRO SS, 1965, BIOMETRIKA, V52, P591 SIMONOVIC SP, 1998, INT ASS HYDROLOGICAL, V251 SRIKANTHAN R, 1982, J HYDRAUL DIV ASCE, V108, P419 STEDINGER JR, 1982, WATER RESOUR RES, V18, P919 SUDLER CE, 1927, T AM SOC CIVIL ENG, V91, P622 SVANIDZE GG, 1964, OSNOVY RASCHETA REGU SVANIDZE GG, 1980, MATH MODELING HYDROL VOGEL RM, 1995, WATER RESOUR RES, V31, P645 ZONGXUE X, 1998, WATER RESOUR MANAG, V12, P13 NR 26 TC 0 J9 J HYDROL BP 359 EP 382 PY 2006 PD JUN 15 VL 324 IS 1-4 GA 056VQ UT ISI:000238553600025 ER PT J AU Daschkeit, A TI From scientific environmental research to sustainability science? SO GAIA-ECOLOGICAL PERSPECTIVES FOR SCIENCE AND SOCIETY LA German DT Article C1 Univ Kiel, Inst Geog, D-24118 Kiel, Germany. RP Daschkeit, A, Univ Kiel, Inst Geog, Ludewig Meyn Str 14, D-24118 Kiel, Germany. AB Environmental science deals with phenomena in nature caused by human influence. Thus, its objects have material as well as symbolic aspects. Besides, problem oriented research has two main objectives: on the one hand practicing normal science, which is focused on the development in specific scientific disciplines, and, on the other hand, the more or less active involvement in social processes. Thus, its objects have descriptive as well as normative elements. With the help of three examples from environmental research (i.e. ecosystem research, climate impact research, and integrated coastal zone management), it is pointed out that modern environmental research (e.g. socioecological research), within the context of a transdisciplinary sustainability science, analyses such twofold hybrid objects of investigations with a high degree of normativity. As a result, an evaluation of this kind of research has to be oriented on criteria from inside and outside of science. CR 2005, FORUM SCI TECHNOLOGY *BMBF, 2004, FORSCH NACHH RAHM BM *EU, 2004, LIV COAST ER EUR SED *IPCC, 2002, KLIM 2001 ZUS POL EN AHLKE B, 2004, INFORM RAUMENTWICKLU, V7, P435 ALCAMO J, 2002, WISSENSCHAFTSETHIK T, V17, P3 ALCARNO J, 2003, ECOSYSTEMS HUMAN WEL BERGMANN M, 2005, ISOE STUDIENTEXTE, V13 BOSCHEN S, 2001, GAIA, V10, P203 DASCHKEIT A, HUMANOKOLOGIE, V5 DASCHKEIT A, 2002, KLIMAFOLGEN MENSCH K DASCHKEIT A, 2003, UMWELTWISSENSCHAFTEN, V15, P199 DASCHKEIT A, 2004, KLIM KUST P TAG 29 3, P313 EGGERS H, 2004, INFORM RAUMENTWICKLU, V7, P499 FRANZLE O, 1997, HDB UMWELTWISSENSCHA GORG C, 2003, REGULATION NATURVERH GRUNWALD AS, 2002, INTEGRATIVE MODELLIE, P71 JAEGER J, 2006, GAIA, V15, P20 JULEY H, 2003, MAT SOZIALE OKOLOGIE, V22 KANNEN A, 2004, GEOGRAPHIE MEERE KUS, P177 KATES RW, 2001, SCIENCE, V292, P641 KLEIN RJT, 2003, THESIS I CAU KIEL KI KREMSER U, 2004, WATTENMEER INT, V22, P7 LANGE H, 2003, HDB NACHHALTIGE ENTW, P563 MELZER M, 2004, INFORM RAUMENTWICKLU, V7, P515 NOLTING B, 2004, GAIA, V13, P254 NOWOTNY H, 2001, RETHINKING SCI KNOWL NOWOTNY H, 2003, MINERVA, V41, P179 OTT K, 2004, KONKRETISIERUNGSSTRA ROBBECKE M, 2004, INTER DISZIPLINIEREN SCHERINGER M, 2001, GAIA, V10, P125 SCHERNEWSKI G, 2004, GEOGRAPHIE MEERE KUS, P183 SCHRAMM E, 2002, THEORIE OKOLOGIE, V7, P51 SCHRODER M, 2002, KLIMAVORHERSAGE KLIM SCHUCHARDT B, 2004, KLIMAWANDEL KUSTE ZU STOCK M, 2003, UMWELTWISSENSCHAFTEN, V15, P21 STOCK M, 2004, UWSF UMWELTCHEM OKOT, V16, P115 WEHLING P, 1997, JB SOZIAL OKOLOGISCH, V3, P63 WEINGART P, 2001, STUNDE WAHRHEIT VERH NR 39 TC 0 J9 GAIA BP 37 EP 43 PY 2006 VL 15 IS 1 GA 021BN UT ISI:000235957600008 ER PT J AU Allison, EH Horemans, B TI Putting the principles of the Sustainable Livelihoods Approach into fisheries development policy and practice SO MARINE POLICY LA English DT Article C1 Univ E Anglia, Sch Dev Studies, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. Food & Agr Org UN, I-00100 Rome, Italy. RP Allison, EH, Univ E Anglia, Sch Dev Studies, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. AB The Sustainable Livelihoods Approach (SLA) combines a conceptual framework with a set of operational principles to provide guidance on policy formulation and development practice. The SLA has been widely used in coastal and fisheries development research and has informed the design of development programmes but experience of operationalising it remains largely undocumented. In the Sustainable Fisheries Livelihoods Programme, which involves 25 West African countries, the SLA has helped to align fisheries policy with wider poverty reduction initiatives and to identify means of contributing to poverty reduction that do not directly increase pressure on fully or over-exploited fish resources. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *FAO, 1995, COD COND RESP FISH *FAO, 2000, POV COAST FISH COMM *FAO, 2005, INCR CONTR SMALL SCA, V10 *SFLP, SFLPRF15 SFLP COT BE *SFLP, 2005, SFLP LIAIS B, V19, P3 *SFLP, 2005, SFLP LIAISON B, V17 *WORLD FISH CTR, 2005, DECL NEPAD FISH ALL ADGER WN, 2004, 7 U E ANGL TYND CTR ALLISON EH, 2001, MAR POLICY, V25, P377 ALLISON EH, 2005, RURAL LIVELIHOODS PO, P256 ASHLEY C, 1999, SUSTAINABLE LIVELIHO BEBBINGTON A, 1999, WORLD DEV, V27, P2021 BENE C, 2003, J ASIAN AFR STUD, V38, P17 BENE C, 2003, WORLD DEV, V31, P949 BENE C, 2006, 481 FAO BERKES F, 2003, NAVIGATING SOCIAL EC, V1, P1 BROCKLESBY MA, 2003, COMMUNITY DEV J, V38, P185 CHAMBERS R, 1992, 296 I DEV STUD DISC CHARLES AT, 2001, SUSTAINABLE FISHERY CHAUVEAU JP, 2000, PECHES PIROGUIERES A CYCON DE, 1986, NAT RESOUR J, V26, P1 DORWARD A, 2003, DEV POLICY REV, V21, P319 ELLIS F, 1998, J DEV STUD, V35, P1 HOREMANS B, 2004, POVERTY SMALL SCALE, P229 KISSLING E, 2005, AIDS, V19, P1939 LEACH M, 1999, WORLD DEV, V27, P225 MOSSE D, 1998, DEV PROCESS CONCEPTS NARAYAN D, 2001, VOICES POOR CRYING C NEELY C, 2005, 16 FAO ROM NEILAND AE, 2004, POVERTY SMALL SCALE NORTH DC, 1990, I I CHANGE EC PERFOR PITTALUGA F, 2004, POVERTY SMALL SCALE, P103 SALMI P, 2005, SOCIOL RURALIS, V45, P22 SEN AK, 1981, POVERTY FAMINES ESSA, V1, P1 SEN AK, 1985, COMMODITIES CAPABILI SEN AK, 2000, 1 AS DEV BANK OFF EN SOLESBURY W, 2003, 217 ODI STIRRAT RL, 2004, AQUATIC RESOURCES CU, V1, P25 THORPE A, 2005, MAR POLICY, V29, P328 TONER A, 2002, DEV STUD ASS C RIO P TOWNSLEY P, 1998, SUSTAINABLE RURAL LI, P139 VANOOSTENBRUGGE JAE, 2004, AGR SYST, V82, P57 WHITTINGHAM E, 2003, POVERTY REEFS NR 43 TC 0 J9 MAR POLICY BP 757 EP 766 PY 2006 PD NOV VL 30 IS 6 GA 084UQ UT ISI:000240560300017 ER PT J AU Warner, JF TI More sustainable participation? Multi-stakeholder platforms for integrated catchment management SO INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF WATER RESOURCES DEVELOPMENT LA English DT Article C1 Univ Wageningen & Res Ctr, Multistakeholder Platform Integrated Catchment, Irrigat & Water Engn Grp, NL-6709 PA Wageningen, Netherlands. RP Warner, JF, Univ Wageningen & Res Ctr, Multistakeholder Platform Integrated Catchment, Irrigat & Water Engn Grp, Nieuwe Kanaal 11, NL-6709 PA Wageningen, Netherlands. AB This paper argues for realistic expectations of Multi-Stakeholder Platforms (MSPs). MSPs are currently a hot topic in the water policy community, despite voices of disillusionment with participation in development work. Research carried out in Peru, Argentina, India, South Africa and Belgium suggests that platforms certainly can prove helpful networks in communication on and management of competing claims to water, managing coordination problems, coalition-building and/or visioning. However, experience has put paid to implicit and explicit expectations front platforms, especially with a view to the integration of knowledge and actors. It makes no sense to separate distributive negotiation and politics ('bad') from integrative negotiation and social learning ('good'). Platforms mix both modalities of negotiation, and actors may strategically withhold or contribute their knowledge. Second, no significant power sharing (vertical inclusion) takes place. A typology of MSPs ranked by influence finds no platform with a significant mandate. It is suggested that MSPs are an institutional bargaining space that is especially useful for visioning and information exchange, but cautioned not to insist that 'water MSPs' confine themselves to water issues only, and to institutionalized groups only. For some stakeholders, the communication and information process itself is good enough, but others will want results: 'food on the table'. Some stakeholders will never join as they do not see how it benefits them and/or because they find it more advantageous to work around the platform. Initiators of platforms for stakeholder involvement in water management should therefore be very clear on what the participatory process aims at and can realistically achieve. CR *DWAF, 2000, CMA WUA GUID SER *VIKSAT, 1999, WAT SCARC POLL PROBL *WORLD BANK, 1996, PART SOURC *WORLD COMM DAMS, 2000, REP WORLD COMM DAMS AARTS N, 2000, COMMUNICATING NATURE, P27 ARNSTEIN SR, 1969, J AM I PLANNERS, V35, P216 BAMPTON JFR, 2003, J FOREST LIVELIHOOD, V2, P35 BAYART JF, 1993, STATE AFRICA POLITIC BECX G, 2005, THESIS WAGENINGEN U BLOOMFIELD D, 1998, 1 ESRC SEM DIPS ENV BOELENS R, 1998, SEARCHING EQUITY CON BRUNS B, 2003, RCSD C POL COMM ART BUSTAMANTE R, 2003, PUBL M 7 MARCH 2002 COOKE B, 2001, PARTICIPATION NEW TY DENHOND P, 2003, THESIS WAGENINGEN U EDMUNDS D, 2001, DISADVANTAGED GROUPS FAYSSSE N, 2005, USE METHODOLOGY SUPP FREY FW, 1993, WATER INT, V18, P54 FUNTOWICZ S, 1983, SCI PREDICTIONS METH GLASBERGEN P, 1995, MANAGING ENV DISPUTE, P119 GRAY B, 1997, RES NEGOT O, V6, P163 GRIGG NS, 1996, WATER RESOURCES MANA HABERMAS J, 1984, THEORY COMMUNICATIVE, V1 HEMAMTI M, 2002, MULTI STAKEHOLDER PR HEWITT K, 1997, REGIONS RISK GEOGRAP, V1, P1 HEYWOOD A, 2002, POLITICAL THEORY INT HOLLING CS, 1978, ADAPTIVE ENV ASSESSM HOMERDIXON TF, 1995, POPUL DEV REV, V21, P1 HOMERDIXON TF, 1999, ENV SCARCITY VIOLENC JASPERS FGW, 2001, POLITICS LAW EC, V1, P305 JIGGINS J, 2004, CASE STUDY MONOGRA B, V2 KICKERT W, 1993, MODERN GOVERNANCE, P191 KIRSCHENBAUM A, 2003, CHAOS DISASTER ORG KOOIMAN J, 2000, CREATIVE GOVERNANCE KUMAR MD, 1999, RETHINKING MOSAIC IN LONG N, 2001, DEV SOCIOLOGY ACTOR MCLOUGHLIN P, 2004, SCI SAY RISK WATER W MEINZENDICK RS, 2001, IRRIG DRAINAGE SYST, V15, P93 MITCHELL B, 1990, INTEGRATED WATER MAN MOENCH M, 1999, RETHINKING MOSAIC IN MOLLINGA PP, 2001, FUTURES, V33, P733 MOREYRA A, 2004, CONFLICTOS PARTICIPA, P151 MOSTERTMAN I, 2005, THESIS WAGENINGEN U OHLSSON L, 1998, WATER SOCIAL RESOURC ORE MT, 2004, CONFLICTOS PARTICIPA, P121 OSTROM E, 1990, GOVERNING COMMONS EV PONCELET EC, 1998, 7 ANN C INT ASS STUD PONCELET EC, 2001, POLICY SCI, V34, P273 PRETTY J, 1997, P INT C EC AGR SUST, P3 ROLING N, 1994, FUTURE LAND MOBILISI, P385 ROLING N, 2001, DIAL WAT FOOD ENV WO ROLING NG, 1999, AGR HUM VALUES, V16, P295 SMITH T, 2003, CATCHMENT MANAGEMENT STEINS NA, 1998, CROSS BOUND 7 ANN C TURTON AR, 1999, 9 STOCKH WAT S STOCK TURTON AR, 2002, FINDING SOURCE LINKA UPHOFF N, 1992, LEARNING GAL OYA POS VANBETUW W, 2004, THESIS WAGENINGEN U VANDERPLOEG TR, 2002, ENVISIONING FUTURE T VANDERWAL JH, 1999, THESIS U BRIT COLUMB WARNER J, 2000, INTEGRATED MANAGEMEN WARNER J, 2003, 2 INT S INT WAT RES WARNER J, 2005, COALITIONS COLLISION WARNER J, 2005, DISASTER SITES, V6 WATSON N, 2001, CONTRIBUTION MULTI S WOLF AT, 1995, HYDROPOLITICS JORDAN WOODHILL J, 1998, FACILITATING SUSTAIN ZARTMAN IW, 1993, CULTURE NEGOTIATIONS NR 68 TC 0 J9 INT J WATER RESOUR DEV BP 15 EP 35 PY 2006 PD MAR VL 22 IS 1 GA 013LB UT ISI:000235409700003 ER PT J AU Kaushik, P Joshi, PK Yang, XF TI Multiple hazard mapping (MHM) for vulnerability assessment in Pali Gad Watershed using geospatial tools SO PHOTONIRVACHAK-JOURNAL OF THE INDIAN SOCIETY OF REMOTE SENSING LA English DT Article C1 Indian Inst Remote Sensing NRSA, Dehra Dun 248001, Uttar Pradesh, India. Ctr Space Sci & Technol Educ Asia & Pacific, Dehra Dun 248001, Uttar Pradesh, India. RP Joshi, PK, Indian Inst Remote Sensing NRSA, Dehra Dun 248001, Uttar Pradesh, India. CR ARAMBEPOLA NMS, 1999, M104 CHPB NAT DIS MI BANDARA RMS, 2002, P REG WORKSH BEST PR, P47 BURTON I, 1964, NAT RESOUR J, V3, P412 BURTON I, 1978, ENV HAZARD, V1, P1 DUBOIS R, 1985, NATURAL HAZARDS ASSE JAIN A, 1996, CURR SCI INDIA, V70, P928 JOSHI PK, 2003, ASIAN J GEOINFORMATI, V3, P3 JOSHI PK, 2003, CONTACT, V5, P8 KIMOTHI MM, 1996, INT J REMOTE SENS, V17, P1391 MORGAN RPC, 1996, SOIL EROSION CONSERV PANDEY MR, 1995, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V22, P751 PANTANJALI PK, 2003, SUSTAINABLE DEV MOUN RAY PKC, 1997, INT S GIS GPS 18 21 ROY PS, 2000, BIOL CONSERV, V95, P95 ROY PS, 2000, NATURAL DISASTERS TH NR 15 TC 0 J9 PHOTONIRVACHAK-J INDIAN SOC R BP 441 EP 445 PY 2005 PD SEP VL 33 IS 3 GA 142TC UT ISI:000244672000010 ER PT J AU PRIMAVERA, JH TI INTENSIVE PRAWN FARMING IN THE PHILIPPINES - ECOLOGICAL, SOCIAL, AND ECONOMIC-IMPLICATIONS SO AMBIO LA English DT Article RP PRIMAVERA, JH, SE ASIAN FISHERIES DEV CTR,DEPT AQUACULTURE,ILOILO,PHILIPPINES. AB The benefits of intensive farming of the giant tiger prawn Peneus monodon in the Philippines are discussed in relation to the environmental costs. Ecological effects include mangrove conversion into ponds; use of antibiotics and chemicals leading to drug resistance; dumping of pond effluents which affect neighboring ecosystems; and pumping of groundwater that causes saltwater intrusion and vulnerability to floods. In addition, these effects lead to social costs in the form of reduction in domestic and agricultural water supplies; decreases in the production of foodfish and other food crops; further marginalization of coastal fishermen; displacement of labor; and credit monopoly by big businessmen. Comparative economic analyses of three prawn-farming systems showed that, compared to extensive and intensive culture, semi-intensive farms give the best performance using undiscounted (payback period, return on investment) and discounted (net present value, internal rate of return) economic indicators. With a 20% fluctuation in inputs or selling price intensive farming will no longer be profitable because of the high variable cost. The paper concludes with recombinations for strict enforcement of existing government guidelines (e.g. ban on mangrove conversion); institution of new policies on the use of groundwater, and public credit; diversification of cultured species; and emphasis on semi-intensive farming parallel with brakes on further intensification of prawn farmings (1). CR 1987, HDB SELECTED FISHERY 1988, IBON FACTS FIGURES, V6, P6 1988, INFOFISH INT NOV 1989, NEWS EXPRESS 0208 1989, WORLD SHRIMP FAR MAY, P11 AMANTE SV, 1989, AQUACULTURE IND PANA APUD F, 1983, FARMING PRAWNS SHRIM BAILEY C, 1988, OCEAN SHORELINE MANA, V11, P31 BENYAMI M, 1986, CERES, V112, P15 CAMACHO AS, 1987, MANGROVES ASIA PACIF, P383 CARBOGNIN L, 1985, NATURE RESOURCES, V21, P2 CHRISTENSEN B, 1978, P INT WORKSHOP MANGR, P131 HIRASAWA Y, 1985, 1ST P INT C CULT PEN, P131 HIRASAWA Y, 1988, IPFC WORKING PARTY E MACNAE W, 1974, IOFC7434 INT IND OC MARTOSUBROTO P, 1977, MAR RES INDONES, V18, P81 MEERCER DE, 1984, NATURE RESOURCES, V20, P14 MOHAMED KH, 1977, J MAR IOL ASS INDIA, V13, P149 MOTOH H, 1976, P INT WORKSHOP MANGR, P153 NASIR A, 1987, FAR E EC REV 0820, P62 OHTSU S, 1985, 1985 AS PROD ORG S F POSDAS BC, 1987, TECHNICAL CONSIDERAT, P12 PRIMAVERA JH, 1983, ASIAN AQUACULTURE, V5, P1 PRIMAVERA JH, 1983, ASIAN AQUACULTURE, V5, P5 PRIMAVEREA JH, 1984, ASIAN AQUACULTURE, V6, P4 STAPLES DJ, 1985, 2ND NAT PRAWN SEM NS TURNER RE, 1977, T AM FISH SOC, V106, P411 NR 27 TC 25 J9 AMBIO BP 28 EP 33 PY 1991 PD FEB VL 20 IS 1 GA EZ343 UT ISI:A1991EZ34300008 ER PT J AU Miller, MAL TI Third world states and fluid sovereignty: development options and the politics of sustainable ocean management SO OCEAN & COASTAL MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article C1 Univ Akron, Dept Polit Sci, Akron, OH 44325 USA. RP Miller, MAL, Univ Akron, Dept Polit Sci, Akron, OH 44325 USA. AB As land resources become exhausted or less valuable, Third World states are integrating coastal and marine regions into their development strategies. Given current industrial practice, increased development in these regions have negative environmental consequences, and there is increasing pressure to address these. Third World states' management of their marine and coastal areas is shaped by factors such as fugitive resources, changing or indeterminate marine boundaries, economic vulnerability and evolving environmental regimes. These factors contribute to fluid sovereignty and affect states' ability to exercise authority, autonomy and control. This payer uses the case of the Wider Caribbean Region to illustrate that the net result of fluid sovereignty is diminished ability to sustainably manage ocean and coastal resources. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. CR 1991, CEPNEWS DEC, V5, P1 1991, CEPNEWS DEC, V5, P4 1991, CEPNEWS DEC, V5, P5 1992, CEPNEWS MAR, P4 1992, CEPNEWS MAR, V6, P1 1992, CEPNEWS MAR, V6, P4 1992, CEPNEWS, V6, P2 1993, CEPNEWS DEC, V7, P1 1994, CEPNEWS DEC, V8, P6 1996, CEPNEWS DEC, V10, P1 1997, CEPNEWS MAR, V11, P4 1998, CEPNEWS 0508 *JOINT GROUP EXP S, 1990, 115 UNEP *UNEP IOC, 1994, 2 M CEPPOL GROUP EXP *UNEP, 1990, 5 UNEP CEP, P12 *UNEP, 1991, 9 M MON COMM ACT PLA *UNEP, 1993, 19 UNEP CEP, P30 *UNEP, 1994, 31 UNEP CEP, P20 *UNEP, 1994, 33 UNEP CEP, P14 *UNEP, 1994, 7 INT M ACT PLAN CAR, P1 *UNEP, 1996, 1 M LEG TECHN POL EX ANDERSON W, 1997, LAW CARIBBEAN MARRIN, P7 BROWN S, 1995, NEW FORCES OLD FORCE, P2 CAMILLERI JA, 1992, END SOVEREIGNTY POLI, P16 DYSON K, 1908, STATE TRADITION W EU, P113 HOAGLAND P, 1995, EFFECTIVE PROTOCOL L, P12 KASTEN T, 1999, E COMMUNICATION 0402 KASTEN T, 1999, E COMMUNICATION 0412 LITFIN KT, 1998, GREENING SOVEREIGNTY, P203 LYONS GM, 1995, WESTPHALIA STATE SOV, P41 MILLER MAL, 1996, PROTECTING MARINE EN, P37 MILLER MAL, 1998, GREENING SOVEREIGNTY, P174 SASSEN S, 1996, LOSING CONTROL SOVER, P28 YOUNG O, 1989, INT COOPERATION BUIL, P12 NR 34 TC 0 J9 OCEAN COAST MANAGE BP 235 EP 253 PY 2000 VL 43 IS 2-3 GA 312UB UT ISI:000086960800005 ER PT J AU Patt, A TI Assessing model-based and conflict-based uncertainty SO GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS LA English DT Article C1 Int Inst Appl Syst Anal, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria. RP Patt, A, Int Inst Appl Syst Anal, Schlosspl 1, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria. AB Assessment panels need to communicate scientific uncertainty, and often face choices about how to simplify or synthesize it. One important distinction is between uncertainty that has been modeled, and that which derives from disagreement among experts. From an economic decision-making perspective the two are in many ways logically equivalent, yet from psychological and social perspectives they are quite different. An experiment on the communication of climate change uncertainty suggests that the two framings of uncertainty differentially influence people's estimates of likelihood and their motivation to take responsive action. It is recommended that assessment panels pay close attention to the social features of uncertainty, such as conflict between experts. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *NAT RES COUNC, 2006, COMPL FOR CHAR COMM ALLAIS M, 1979, THEORY DECISION LIB ANDREAE MO, 2005, NATURE, V435, P1187 ANDRONOVA NG, 2001, J GEOPHYS RES-ATMOS, V106, P22605 ARNELL NW, 2005, RISK ANAL, V25, P1419 ARROW KJ, 1964, REV ECON STUD, V31, P91 BIRNBAUM MH, 1976, MEM COGNITION, V4, P330 BIRNBAUM MH, 1979, J PERS SOC PSYCHOL, V37, P48 BIRNBAUM MH, 1983, J PERS SOC PSYCHOL, V45, P792 BOYKOFF MT, 2004, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V14, P125 CAIN M, 2003, B ECON RES, V55, P263 CAMERER C, 2001, CHOICES VALUES FRAME, P288 CLEMEN RT, 1999, RISK ANAL, V19, P187 COVELLO V, 1990, COMMUNICATING RISKS, P79 COX PM, 2000, NATURE, V408, P184 DARR ED, 2000, ORGAN BEHAV HUM DEC, V82, P28 DEBRUIN WB, 2000, ORGAN BEHAV HUM DEC, V81, P115 DOUGLAS M, 1982, RISK CULTURE DRYZEK J, 1997, POLITICS EARTH ENV D EDGELL SE, 2004, J BEHAV DECIS MAKING, V17, P213 EZRAHI Y, 1990, DESCENT ICARUS SCI T FEHR E, 1999, Q J ECON, V114, P817 FISCHHOFF B, 1995, RISK ANAL, V15, P137 FISHBURN PC, 1981, THEOR DECIS, V13, P139 FUNTOWICZ SO, 1990, UNCERTAINTY QUALITY FUNTOWICZ SO, 1993, FUTURES, V25, P739 GELBSPAN R, 1997, HEAT IS HIGH STAKES GIGERENZER G, 2000, ADAPTIVE THINKING RA GIGERENZER G, 2001, BOUNDED RATIONALITY GRIFFIN D, 1992, COGNITIVE PSYCHOL, V24, P411 HARVEY N, 1997, ORGAN BEHAV HUM DEC, V70, P117 HOUGHTON JT, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 JANSSEN PHM, 2004, 4 INT C SENS AN MOD JASANOFF S, 2002, HDB SCI TECHNOLOGY S JONES RN, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P403 KAHNEMAN D, 1979, ECONOMETRICA, V47, P263 KAHNEMAN D, 1986, J BUS, V59, P285 KASPERSON RE, 1996, ANN AM ACAD POLIT SS, V545, P95 KNETSCH JL, 1997, ENV ETHICS BEHAV, P13 KROSNICK JA, 2006, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V77, P7 KUHBERGER A, 1998, ORGAN BEHAV HUM DEC, V75, P23 LAKOFF G, 2004, DONT THINK ELEPHANT LEE K, 1993, COMPASS GYROSCOPE IN LEISS W, 1996, ANN AM ACAD POLIT SS, V545, P85 LEMPERT RJ, 2002, P NATL ACAD SCI U S3, V99, P7309 LINSTONE HA, 1999, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V62, P79 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 METZ B, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 MICHAEL M, 1996, MISUNDERSTANDING SCI, P107 MORGAN MG, 1990, UNCERTAINTY GUIDE DE MORGAN MG, 1995, ENVIRON SCI TECHNOL, V29, P468 MOSS R, 2000, IPCC SUPPORTING MAT, P33 MUNRO A, 2003, J ECON BEHAV ORGAN, V50, P407 PATT A, 2000, J RISK UNCERTAINTY, V21, P45 PATT AG, 2006, J BEHAV DECIS MAKING, V19, P347 PAYNE JW, 1993, ADAPTIVE DECISION MA PENNER JE, 2004, NATURE, V432, P962 PETTY RE, 1986, ADV EXPT SOCIAL PSYC, V19, P123 PRENTICEDUNN S, 1986, HLTH ED RES, V1, P153 RISBEY JS, 2000, CLIMATE RES, V16, P61 RITOV I, 1992, J RISK UNCERTAINTY, V5, P49 SAMUELSON W, 1988, J RISK UNCERTAINTY, V1, P7 SIMON HA, 1956, PSYCHOL REV, V63, P129 SNIEZEK JA, 2004, J BEHAV DECIS MAKING, V17, P173 STAINFORTH DA, 2005, NATURE, V433, P403 THOMPSON M, 1990, CULTURAL THEORY TVERSKY A, 1973, COGNITIVE PSYCHOL, V5, P207 TVERSKY A, 1974, SCIENCE, V185, P1124 VANDERSLUIJS JP, 2005, RISK ANAL, V25, P481 VONNEUMANN J, 1944, THEORY GAMES EC BEHA WALDROP MM, 1992, COMPLEXITY EMERGENCE WEBER E, 1997, ENV ETHICS BEHAV, P314 WEBER EU, 2000, RISK DECISION POLICY, V5, P69 WEBER EU, 2006, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V77, P103 WEBSTER M, 2003, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V61, P1 WEBSTER M, 2003, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V61, P295 WINDSCHITL PD, 1999, J EXP PSYCHOL LEARN, V25, P1514 WYNNE B, 1996, MISUNDERSTANDING SCI, P19 ZECKHAUSER RJ, 1996, ANN AM ACAD POLIT SS, V545, P144 NR 79 TC 1 J9 GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANGE BP 37 EP 46 PY 2007 PD FEB VL 17 IS 1 GA 149YG UT ISI:000245182200006 ER PT J AU Duerden, F TI Translating climate change impacts at the community level SO ARCTIC LA English DT Article C1 Ryerson Univ, Dept Geog, Toronto, ON M5B 2K3, Canada. RP Duerden, F, Ryerson Univ, Dept Geog, 350 Victoria St, Toronto, ON M5B 2K3, Canada. AB It is well recognized that climate change will have considerable impact on the physical landscapes of northern Canada. How these impacts will be transmitted to the level of human activity is not clear, but it needs to be understood by governments and other decision makers to help them identify and implement appropriate approaches to ameliorate the effects of climate change. Translating physical changes into human impacts is not a simple task; communities are not passive players that will respond to changes in the physical environment in easily predictable ways. While many prognoses about change are made on a large scale, human activity is highly localized, and impacts and responses will be conditioned by local geography and a range of endogenous factors, including demographic trends, economic complexity, and experience with "change" in a broad sense. More and more studies are yielding important information about community-level experience, both past and current, with environmental shifts in the North, but research effort by social scientists falls short of what is required to reduce the level of uncertainty, and it compares unfavourably with the physical sciences' dedication to the climate change problem. A pan-northern research effort, building on a long legacy of social science research in the North, would go some way towards translating the promise of change into probable community impacts. CR *GOV NW TERR, 2003, COMP OP CHANG TIM PE *GOV YUK, 2002, YUK MIGR PATT 1991 2 *IASC, 1999, IMP GLOB CLIM CHANG *IASC, 2001, CLIM CHANG 2001 SCI *NO CLIM EXCH, 2000, NO ASS IMP CLIM CHAN *NO CLIM EXCH, 2001, GAP AN PROJ ADGER WN, 1999, MITIG ADAPT STRAT GL, V4, P253 AHARONIAN D, 1994, MACKENZIE BASIN IMPA, P410 ATSON RT, 1997, IPCC SPECIAL REPORT BERKES F, 1998, LINKING SOCIAL ECOLO, V1, P1 BERKES F, 2002, EARTH FASTER INDIGEN, P335 COHEN SJ, 1997, MACKENZIE BASIN IMPA COMISO JC, 2003, J CLIMATE, V16, P3498 CRUIKSHANK J, 2001, ARCTIC, V54, P377 CUTTER SL, 1996, PROG HUM GEOG, V20, P529 DUERDEN F, 1998, POLAR REC, V34, P31 DUERDEN F, 2001, NO REV, V24, P150 FAST H, 1998, SECURING NO FUTURES, P9 FOX S, 2000, ARCTIC CLIMATOLOGY P FOX S, 2002, EARTH IS FASTER NOW, P12 HANDMER J, 1999, MITIGATION ADAPTATIO, V4, P267 HUANG GH, 1998, RESOUR CONSERV RECY, V24, P95 HUGHEN K, 1998, WITNESS ARCTIC, V6, P1 HUNTINGTON HP, 2000, WITNESS ARCTIC, V8, P1 JOLLY D, 2002, EARTH FASTER INDIGEN, P92 KELLY PM, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V47, P325 KENDRICK A, 2000, CANADIAN J NATIVE ST, V20, P1 KOFINAS GP, 2002, EARTH FASTER INDIGEN, P54 KRUPNIK I, 2002, EARTH FASTER NOW IND KRUPNIK I, 2002, EARTH IS FASTER NOW, P156 LEWIS JE, 1995, TOPICS ARCTIC SOCIAL, V2, P1 LONERGAN S, 1993, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V24, P331 MAXWELL B, 1997, CANADA COUNTRY STUDY, V2 MCDONALD M, 1997, VOICES BAY TRADITION MCGILLIVARY DG, 1993, 9301 ATM ENV SERV MILLS P, 1994, ARCTIC, V47, P115 NOONGWOOK G, 2000, IMPACTS CHANGES SEA, P21 NUTTALL M, 2001, INDIGENOUS AFFAIRS, V4, P26 QUIGLEY NC, 1987, ARCTIC, V40, P204 RIEDLINGER D, 2001, POLAR REC, V37, P315 ROTHMAN D, 1997, MACKENZIE BASIN IMPA, P233 SMIT B, 2002, ENHANCING CAPACITY D, P1 SNOW N, 2001, CLIM CHANG CIRC N SU TAYLOR E, 1997, CANADA COUNTRY STUDY, V6 THORPE N, 2002, EARTH FASTER NOW IND, P198 USHER PJ, 2002, ARCTIC S1, V55, P18 WEIN EE, 1995, NO REV, V14, P86 WILLIAMSON T, 1997, SINA SIKUJALUK OUR F NR 48 TC 0 J9 ARCTIC BP 204 EP 212 PY 2004 PD JUN VL 57 IS 2 GA 834PY UT ISI:000222424200009 ER PT J AU Kumar, PKD TI Potential vulnerability implications of sea level rise for the coastal zones of Cochin, southwest coast of India SO ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING AND ASSESSMENT LA English DT Article C1 Natl Inst Oceanog, Reg Ctr, Cochin 682018, Kerala, India. RP Kumar, PKD, Natl Inst Oceanog, Reg Ctr, Cochin 682018, Kerala, India. AB This study presents the results of the impact assessment analysis of the coastal zones of Cochin along the southwest coast of India. The climatological cycle of sea level derived for the region for the period 1939-2003 has shown a range of about 17 cm. From the results obtained on the coastal sedimentary environments, it is found that climate-induced sea level rise scenarios will bring profound effects. It is also revealed that the mean beach slope and relief play a vital role in land loss of the region. The local relief of coastal zone will decrease as sea level rises, thus increasing the percentage of land above mean sea level subjected to episodic inundations. Results of the yearly probability of damages indicated the urgency to upgrade the existing designs of coastal protection structures. A brief characterisation of the issues on infrastructure and uncertainties in policy planning also are attempted. CR 1984, SHORE PROTECTION MAN, V1 *NRC, 1987, RESP CHANG SEA LEV BALACHANDRAN KK, 2005, ESTUAR COAST SHELF S, V65, P361 BANSE K, 1968, DEEP-SEA RES, V15, P45 BIJLSMA L, 1996, IMPACTS ADAPTATION M BIRD ECF, 1988, GREENHOUSE PLANNING, P60 BRUUN P, 1962, J WATERWAYS HARBORS, V88, P117 CHURCH JA, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, P639 CUBASCH U, 2001, PROJECTIONS FUTURE C, P525 DAS PK, 1991, P INDIAN AS-EARTH, V100, P177 DAS PK, 1993, P INDIAN AS-EARTH, V102, P175 DEAN RG, 1983, HDB COASTAL PROCESSE, P151 EMERY KO, 1989, J COASTAL RES, V5, P489 GOMMES R, 1997, POTENTIAL IMPACTS SE HANDS EB, 1976, 761 US COAST ENG RES HOUGHTON JT, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995 KONT A, 2003, GLOBAL PLANET CHANGE, V36, P1 KUMAR PKD, 1994, IND J ENV PROTN, V14, P98 KUMAR PKD, 1995, P INT C COAST PORT E, P1865 KUMAR PKD, 1996, AMBIO, V4, P249 KUMAR PKD, 2000, THESIS MANGALORE U I LIU SK, 1997, OCEAN COAST MANAGE, V37, P85 LONGHURST AR, 1990, CAN J FISH AQUAT SCI, V47, P2407 MORTON RA, 1991, COASTAL SEDIMENTS 91, P997 NICHOLLS RJ, 1998, CLIMATE RES, V11, P5 NICHOLLS RJ, 1999, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V9, P69 PILKEY OH, 1987, SEA LEVEL FLUCTUATIO, P59 PUGH DT, 1987, TIDES SURGES MEAN SE SHARMA GS, 1978, INDIAN J MAR SCI, V7, P209 SMALL C, 2000, ENV GEOSCIENCES, V7, P3 SPIEGEL MR, 1981, THEORY PROBLEMS STAT SRINIVAS K, 2002, INDIAN J MAR SCI, V31, P271 THERON AK, 1994, J S AFR I CIV ENG, V36, P6 TITUS JG, 1989, EPA J, V1, P14 TITUS JG, 1991, COAST MANAGE, V19, P171 WARRICK RA, 1994, CLIMATE SEA LEVEL CH, P3 WATSON RT, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, V1, P1 WEAVER AJ, 1998, OCEAN COAST MANAGE, V39, P73 WIND HG, 1994, CLIMATE SEA LEVEL CH, P297 NR 39 TC 0 J9 ENVIRON MONIT ASSESS BP 333 EP 344 PY 2006 PD DEC VL 123 IS 1-3 GA 110EK UT ISI:000242360900021 ER PT J AU Elmendorf, CS TI Securing ecological investments an other people's land: A transaction costs perspective SO NATURAL RESOURCES JOURNAL LA English DT Article C1 Univ Calif Davis, Sch Law, Davis, CA 95616 USA. RP Elmendorf, CS, Univ Calif Davis, Sch Law, Davis, CA 95616 USA. AB This exploratory article on contracting for habitat restoration considers landowner and land-trust strategies under the following conditions: (1) restoration entails initial specific investments by the land trust and adaptation over time, (2) landowners are uncertain about land-trust "type" (specifically, whether the land trust's hidden agenda is to oust the landowner), (3) land trusts are uncertain about landowner type (specifically, the landowner's private cost of complying with the contract), and (4) habitat restoration is characterized by increasing returns to scale (contiguous acreage). Several contracting strategies are compared. Two appear promising: "liability-rule conservation easements," which would establish contracting frameworks with third-party determination of price; and "collective contracting" via supermajoritarian special districts authorized by law to bind the member landowners. It is suggested that contracts with special districts may prove valuable not only for overcoming holdouts, but also as a way of reducing the land trust's vulnerability to opportunism that is premised on asymmetric information about landowner type. 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Univ Cape Town, Environm Evaluat Unit, ZA-7700 Rondebosch, South Africa. RP Glavovic, BC, Massey Univ, Resource & Environm Planning Programme, Private Bag 11222, Palmerston North, New Zealand. AB This is the second of two articles exploring coastal management in South Africa. It focuses on the adoption of the Sustainable Livelihoods approach that has underpinned recent policy implementation efforts. This approach complements prevailing coastal management thinking and practice by focusing attention on the strategies that poor people use to access coastal resources, mediated by governance institutions and social relations, in the pursuit of desired livelihood outcomes. South Africa's efforts to adopt this approach help to better understand coastal livelihood opportunities and challenges, identify priority interventions for improving livelihood prospects, and reveal imperatives for building sustainable coastal livelihoods. (C) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 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RP Jones, RN, CSIRO Atmospher Res, PB 1, Aspendale, Vic 3195, Australia. AB Climate change projection is the term the IPCC Second Assessment Report (SAR) uses for model estimates of future climate. In that report, projections are presented in two forms: as single model scenarios and as projected ranges of uncertainty. In climate studies, scenarios are commonly regarded as being plausible, but have no further probability attached. Projected ranges of uncertainty can have probabilities attached to the range and within the range, so are more likely to occur than individual scenarios. However, as there is significant remaining uncertainty beyond the projected range, such projections cannot be regarded as forecasts. An appropriate terminology is required to communicate this distinction. The sources of uncertainty in projected ranges of global temperature to 2100 are analysed by Visser et al. (2000), who recommend that ail major sources of uncertainty be incorporated into global warming projections. This will expand its projected range beyond that of the IPCC SAR. Further sources of uncertainties are contained within projections of regional climate. Several strategies that aim to manage that uncertainty are described. Uncertainty can also be managed where it is unquantifiable. An example is rapid climate change, where discarding the term climate 'surprises' in favour of more precise terminology to aid in identifying possible adaptation strategies, is recommended. CR *CSIRO, 1992, CLIM CHANG SCEN AUST, P6 *CSIRO, 1996, CLIM CHANG SCEN AUST, P8 ARNELL NW, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, P325 BAK P, 1996, NATURE WORKS SCI SEL, P212 BASHER RE, 1998, REGIONAL IMPACTS CLI, P105 BRUCE JP, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, P448 CARTER TR, 1994, IPCC TECHNICAL GUIDE, P59 CARTER TR, 1999, REPRESENTING UNCERTA HANSEN JE, 1998, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V95, P12753 HENDERSONSELLERS A, 1993, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V25, P203 HOUGHTON JT, 1995, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, P9 HOUGHTON JT, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, P572 HULME M, 1995, ENERG POLICY, V23, P347 HULME M, 1998, CLIMATE RES, V10, P1 HULME M, 1999, IN PRESS REPRESENTIN JONES RN, 1998, P WORKSH IMP GLOB CH, P14 JONES RN, 1999, 1 ECLAT 2 WORKSH REP JONES RN, 1999, IN PRESS CLIMATE CHA KATTENBERG A, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, P289 KATZ RW, 1999, IN PRESS REPRESENTIN MORGAN MG, 1990, UNCERTAINTY GUIDE DE, P332 MORGAN MG, 1996, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V34, P337 NAKICENOVIC N, 1998, IPCC SPECIAL REPORT OVERPECK JT, 1996, SCIENCE, V271, P1820 PARKINSON S, 1998, CLIMATE RES, V9, P157 PATT A, 1999, RISK DECISION POLICY, V4, P1 PITTOCK AB, 1993, MODELLING CHANGE ENV, P481 PITTOCK AB, 1999, IN PRESS ENV MONITOR SCHIMEL D, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, P65 SCHNEIDER SH, 1983, SOCIAL SCI RES CLIMA, P9 SCHREIDER SY, 1996, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V34, P513 TITUS JG, 1996, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V33, P151 VISSER H, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P421 WALSH KJ, 1999, CLIMATE CHANGE QUEEN, P84 WATSON RT, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, V1, P1 WATSON RT, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, P878 WATSON RT, 1998, REGIONAL IMPACTS CLI, V1, P1 WHETTON PH, 1996, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V32, P447 NR 38 TC 18 J9 CLIMATIC CHANGE BP 403 EP 419 PY 2000 PD JUN VL 45 IS 3-4 GA 324XH UT ISI:000087646800002 ER PT J AU Alexandrov, VA Schneider, M Koleva, E Moisselin, JM TI Climate variability and change in Bulgaria during the 20th century SO THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY LA English DT Article C1 Natl Inst Meteorol & Hydrol, BG-1784 Sofia, Bulgaria. Meteo France, Toulouse, France. RP Alexandrov, VA, Natl Inst Meteorol & Hydrol, 66 Tzarigradsko Shose Blvd, BG-1784 Sofia, Bulgaria. AB Climate data used for climate variability and change analyses, must be homogeneous, to be accurate. The data currently used in the Meteo-France homogenization procedure, which does not require computation of regional reference series, was applied to precipitation and average air temperature series in Bulgaria. The Caussinus-Mestre method, with a double-step procedure, was used to detect multiple breaks and outliers in the long-term series of precipitation and average air temperature. A two factor linear model was applied for break correction. The homogenization procedure was run till all or most break risk was gone. Analysis of climate variability and change in Bulgaria during the 20(th) century was done on already homogenized precipitation and average air temperature series. The statistical significance of the trends obtained was evaluated by the coefficient of Spearman rank correlation. The variations of annual precipitation in Bulgaria showed an overall decrease. The country has experienced several drought episodes during the 20(th) century, most notably in the 1940s and 1980s. Seasonal precipitation in spring shows a positive trend at most weather stations across the country. The trend for summer and autumn precipitation is negative. A statistically significant increasing trend of winter precipitation in north Bulgaria was detected. No significant warming trend in the country was found during the last century inspite of the warming observed during the last two decades. Summer in Bulgaria tends to be warmer from the beginning of the 1980s. There is a statistically significant increasing trend of average air temperature during the winter season at the weather stations near the Danube river ( north Bulgaria) during the periods 1901 - 2000 and 1931 - 2000. CR WATSON RT, 1998, REGIONAL IMPACTS CLI, V1, P1 *WMO, 1990, 143 WMO ALEXANDERSSON H, 1986, J CLIMATOL, V6, P661 ALEXANDERSSON H, 1997, INT J CLIMATOL, V17, P25 ALEXANDROV VA, 2000, RECONSTRUCTIONS CLIM, V1, P151 ALEXANDROV VA, 2000, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V104, P315 AUER I, 1994, THEOR APPL CLIMATOL, V49, P161 AUER I, 1997, P 1 SEM HOM SURF CLI, P83 CAUSSINUS H, 1997, ANN I STAT MATH, V49, P761 CAUSSINUS H, 1997, P 1 SEM HOM SURF CLI, P63 CONRAD V, 1950, METHODS CLIMATOLOGY EASTERLING DR, 1996, J CLIMATE, V9, P1429 HANSSENBAUER I, 1994, J CLIMATE, V7, P1001 HAWKINS DM, 2001, COMPUT STAT DATA AN, V37, P323 HEINO R, 1997, P 1 SEM HOM SURF CLI, P5 KOLEVA E, 1993, P INT S PREC EV SLOV, V2, P91 KOLEVA E, 1994, GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANG LAVIELLE M, 1998, IEEE T SIGNAL PROCES, V46, P1365 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 MESTRE O, 1999, P 2 SEM HOM SURF CLI, P15 MESTRE O, 2000, THESIS U P SABATIER MOISSELIN JM, 2002, ACT C PER VAL DONN S MOISSELIN JM, 2002, METEOROLOGIE, V38, P45 OBASI GOP, 2003, INT S CLIM CHANG BEI PETERSON TC, 1994, INT J CLIMATOL, V14, P671 PETERSON TC, 1998, INT J CLIMATOL, V18, P1493 SCHOLEFIELD P, 1997, P 1 SEM HOM SURF CLI, P1 SHAROV V, 2000, GLOBAL CHANGE BULGAR, P55 SHEIN KA, 1999, P 2 SEM HOM SURF CLI, P195 SNEYERS R, 1999, P 2 SEM HOM SURF CLI, P5 SZENTIMREY T, 1999, P 2 SEM HOM SURF CLI, P27 TOROK SJ, 1996, AUST METEOROL MAG, V45, P251 TUOMENVIRTA H, 1996, GEOPHYSICA, V32, P61 TUOMENVIRTA H, 1997, P 1 SEM HOM SURF CLI, P35 VELEV SB, 1996, GEO J, V40, P363 VINCENT LA, 1998, J CLIMATE, V11, P1094 NR 36 TC 0 J9 THEOR APPL CLIMATOL BP 133 EP 149 PY 2004 PD DEC VL 79 IS 3-4 GA 872CX UT ISI:000225185100001 ER PT J AU Adejuwon, JO TI Assessing the suitability of the epic crop model for use in the study of impacts of climate variability and climate change in West Africa SO SINGAPORE JOURNAL OF TROPICAL GEOGRAPHY LA English DT Article C1 Obafemi Awolowo Univ, Dept Geog, Ife, Nigeria. RP Adejuwon, JO, Obafemi Awolowo Univ, Dept Geog, Ife, Nigeria. AB The EPIC (Erosion Productivity Impact Calculator) crop model, developed by scientists of the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), has been successfully applied to the study of erosion, water pollution, crop growth and production in the US but is yet to be introduced for serious research purposes in other countries or regions. This paper reports on the applicability of the EPIC 8120 crop model for the assessment of the potential impacts of climate variability and climate change on crop productivity in sub-Saharan West Africa, using Nigeria as the case study. Among the crops whose productivity has been successfully simulated with this model are five of West Africa's staple food crops: maize, millet, sorghum (guinea corn), rice and cassava. Thus, using the model, the sensitivities of maize, sorghum and millet to seasonal rainfall were demonstrated with coefficients of correlation significant at over 98 per cent confidence limits. The validation tests were based on a comparison of the observed and the model-generated yields of rice and maize. The main problems of validation relate to the multiplicity of crop varieties with contrasting performances under similar field conditions. There are also the difficulties in representing micro-environments in the model. Thus, some gaps appear between the observed and the simulated yields, arising from data or model deficiencies, or both. Based on the results of the sensitivity and validation tests, the EPIC crop model could be satisfactorily employed in assessing the impacts of and adaptations to climate variability and climate change. Its use for the estimation of production and the assessment of vulnerabilities need to be pursued with further field surveys and field experimentation. CR *IBSNAT, 1989, DEC SUPP SYST AGR TE *IITA, 1986, IITA MAIZ RES PROGR *IITA, 1986, IITA RIC RES PROGR A WATSON RT, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, V1, P1 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 *IPCC, 2001, CLIM CHANG 2001 SCI *US COUNTR STUD PR, 1994, GUID VULN AD ASS VER ADEJUWON JO, 2002, J NIGERIAN METEOROLO, V3, P35 BUTLER IW, 1989, GAPS GEN PURPOSE FOR DAVIS JA, 1965, Q J METEOROLOGICAL S, V91, P17 EASTERLING WE, 1996, CLIMATE RES, V6, P263 FISCHER G, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE WORLD, P115 HARTKAMP AD, 1999, NRG GIS SERIES JONES JW, 1989, SOYGRO V 5 42 SOYBEA KEAY RWJ, 1959, OUTLINE NIGERIAN VEG MURDOCK GP, 1960, GEOGR REV, V50, P523 RITCHIE JT, 1989, USERS GUIDE CERES MA, V5 WILLIAMS JR, 1989, T AM SOC AGR ENG, V32, P479 NR 18 TC 0 J9 SING J TROP GEOGR BP 44 EP 60 PY 2005 PD MAR VL 26 IS 1 GA 917HA UT ISI:000228450300007 ER PT J AU Cioccio, L Michael, EJ TI Hazard or disaster: Tourism management for the inevitable in Northeast Victoria SO TOURISM MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article C1 Events Tourism Victoria, Melbourne, Vic 3001, Australia. La Trobe Univ, Sch Sport Tourism & Hospital Managaememt, Bundoora, Vic 3086, Australia. RP Michael, EJ, Events Tourism Victoria, GPO Box 2219, Melbourne, Vic 3001, Australia. AB In recent years, analysts have focussed on building a range of strategic responses to enhance the ability of communities and businesses to manage and recover from natural disasters. The experience from each new crisis adds further to the process of hazard management. The results in tourism research have expanded the community's collective capacity to respond to such circumstances, but little consideration has been given to how small firms, which are the mainstay of the industry, actually deal with the impacts of a regional catastrophe. The 2003 bushfires in northeast Victoria (Australia) devastated over 1.1 million hectares, destroying the livelihood of some operators and leaving more than one thousand small tourism firms without a revenue base. This paper examines how they prepared for, and recovered from, the event. Perhaps not surprisingly, it exposes their vulnerability and lack of preparedness for dealing with a hazard of this magnitude. On the other hand, it demonstrates the resilience of real-world operators and their reliance on accumulated experience to manage their own recovery. There are lessons here that may well apply in similar circumstances. For example, the paper notes the inadequacy of insurance as a risk management strategy, but emphasizes the value of collective approaches to marketing to rebuild the confidence of future visitors. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *DEP SUST ENV, 2003, PUBL LAND FIR BOUND *MIN TASKF BUSHF R, 2003, FIN REP *NAT TOUR ALL, 2002, PUBL LIAB INS *SMALL BUS COAL, 2003, DEF SMALL BUS *STAT GOV VICT DEP, 2003, REP INQ 2002 2003 VI ANDERSON B, 2003, SUSTAINING BUSINESS BARROW CJ, 1999, ENV MANAGEMENT PRINC BROWN J, 1989, ENV THREATS CANNON T, 1994, DISASTERS DEV ENV CASSEDY K, 1991, CRISIS MANAGEMENT PL CHAPKIS W, 1997, LIFE SEX ACTS WOMEN CHAPMAN D, 1994, NATURAL HAZARDS COVELLO VT, 1993, RISK ASSESSMENT METH CROSS JA, 1990, INT J MASS EMERGENCI, V8, P31 DRABEK TE, 1991, INT J MASS EMERGENCI, V9, P219 DRABEK TE, 1994, ENV PROFESSIONAL, V16, P327 DRABEK TE, 1995, INT J MASS EMERGENCI, V13, P7 DUROCHER J, 1994, CORNELL HOTEL RESTAU, V35, P66 EDWARDS P, 2003, AGE 0216 FAULKNER B, 2001, TOURISM MANAGE, V22, P135 FAULKNER B, 2001, TOURISM MANAGE, V22, P331 GOODRICH JN, 2002, TOURISM MANAGE, V23, P573 HALL CM, 2002, CURRENT ISSUES TOURI, V5, P458 HEINRICH K, 2003, AGE 0202, A6 HENDERSON JC, 2003, TOURISM MANAGE, V24, P279 HUANG JH, 2002, TOURISM MANAGE, V23, P145 JOHNSON BB, 1987, SOCIAL CULTURAL CONS KEOWNMCMULLAN C, 1997, DISASTER PREVENTION, V6, P4 MACHIAVELLI N, 1640, PRINCE MANSFELD Y, 1999, J TRAVEL RES, V38, P30 MARSH V, 2001, FINANCIAL TIMES 0528 MILLER GA, 2003, CURRENT ISSUES TOURI, V6, P150 MORGAN D, 2003, J HOSPITALITY TOURIS, V10, P46 PRIDEAUX B, 2003, TOURISM MANAGE, V24, P475 QUARENTELLI EL, 1998, WHAT IS DISASTER PER RIESSMAN CK, 2002, QUALITATIVE RES COMP ROGERS OG, 1991, J HAZARD MATER, V27, P3 VARLEY A, 1994, DISASTERS DEV ENV VEAL AJ, 1992, RES METHODS LEISURE NR 39 TC 0 J9 TOURISM MANAGE BP 1 EP 11 PY 2007 PD FEB VL 28 IS 1 GA 112VV UT ISI:000242556800001 ER PT J AU Pandey, DN Gupta, AK Anderson, DM TI Rainwater harvesting as an adaptation to climate change SO CURRENT SCIENCE LA English DT Review C1 Indian Inst Forest Management, Bhopal 462003, India. Forest Dept, Jaipur 302005, Rajasthan, India. Indian Inst Technol, Dept Geol & Geophys, Kharagpur 721302, W Bengal, India. NOAA Paleoclimatol Program, Boulder, CO 80303 USA. Univ Colorado, Boulder, CO 80303 USA. RP Pandey, DN, Indian Inst Forest Management, Bhopal 462003, India. AB Extreme climate events such as aridity, drought, flood, cyclone and stormy rainfall are expected to leave an impact on human society. They are also expected to generate widespread response to adapt and mitigate the sufferings associated with these extremes. Societal and cultural responses to prolonged drought include population dislocation, cultural separation, habitation abandonment, and societal collapse. A typical response to local aridity is the human migration to safer and productive areas. However, climate and culture can interact in numerous ways. We hypothesize that people may resort to modify dwelling environments by adapting new strategies to optimize the utility of available water by harvesting rain rather than migrating to newer areas. We review recent palaeoclimatological evidence for climate change during the Holocene, and match those data with archaeological and historical records to test our 'climate change-rainwater harvest' hypothesis. We find correlation between heightened historical human efforts for construction of rainwater harvesting structures across regions in response to abrupt climate fluctuations, like aridity and drought. Historical societal adaptations to climate fluctuations may provide insights on potential responses of modern societies to future climate change that has a bearing on water resources, food production and management of natural systems. 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AB It is noted that the number of more or less permanently displaced persons throughout the world (now of the order of 1% of the total human population) continues to increase at a rate of approximately 3 millions per year; the situation in Africa is especially gave, with the number of displaced persons there (now of the order of 3% of the African population), continuing to increase at a rate of approximately 1.5 million per year. Human displacement - which can be seen to originate largely in rural areas - results primarily from one or more of three factors, namely escape from persecution, escape from military activities, or escape from inadequate means of subsistence. A number of examples from Africa are provided of the social and political consequences of human displacement, with emphasis on conflict situations at the sites of relocation. It is further noted that the numbers of displaced persons continue to grow relentlessly despite there being no discernible rise in persecution or military activities, and despite the long-sustained ameliorative efforts and financial assistance by intergovernmental agencies and others. It is accordingly suggested that the major cause of the continuing increase in the numbers of displaced persons is an ever-growing imbalance between population numbers and the human carrying capacity of the land. Population increases lead to smaller per caput natural resource bases, a predicament exacerbated by over-use - and thus degradation - of the land and its natural resources. In the arid and semi-arid regions of Africa, over-use of the land most often takes the form of overgrazing, leading to land degradation that is severe enough to be referred to as desertification. It is concluded that to achieve sustainable utilization of the land and its natural resources will necessitate the integrated attainment of environmental security and societal security - the latter inter alia requiring participatory governance, non-violent means of conflict resolution, and especially population controls. 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The book is split into 2 parts, the first of which gives an overview of the field of risk and disaster in tuerms of three perspectives: hazards perspective, vulnerability perspective, and the active perspective. The second part illustrates and develops these ideas in relation to some of the more severe dangers and disasters of the twentieth century, for example, earthquake risk, cities at risk and the civil disasters of war. This text provides an alternative to a hazards perspective which can be characterized as a human ecology of risk and disaster. CR BLAIKIE PM, 1994, RISK NATURAL HAZARDS, V1, P1 BURTON I, 1978, ENV HAZARD, V1, P1 CHAMBERS R, 1989, IDS B, V20, P1 CUTTER SL, 1993, LIVING RISK GEOGRAPH CUTTER SL, 1994, ENV RISKS HAZARDS DOW KM, 1992, GEOFORUM, V23, P417 DOWNING TE, 1991, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V1, P365 KATES RW, 1986, GEOGRAPHY RESOURCES LIVERMAN DM, 1990, UNDERSTANDING GLOBAL, V1, P27 LIVERMAN DM, 1990, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V80, P49 RIEBSAME WE, 1991, DROUGHT NATURAL RESO SEN AK, 1981, POVERTY FAMINES ESSA, V1, P1 TIMMERMAN P, 1981, ENV MONOGRAPH, V1, P1 WATTS MJ, 1993, PROG HUM GEOG, V17, P43 WHITE GF, 1974, NATURAL HAZARDS LOCA, V1, P1 NR 12 TC 0 BP 1 EP 389 PY 1997 VL 1 ER PT J AU Aggarwal, PK Kalra, N Chander, S Pathak, H TI InfoCrop: A dynamic simulation model for the assessment of crop yields, losses due to pests, and environmental impact of agro-ecosystems in tropical environments. I. Model description SO AGRICULTURAL SYSTEMS LA English DT Article C1 Indian Agr Res Inst, Div Environm Sci, New Delhi 110012, India. RP Aggarwal, PK, Indian Agr Res Inst, Div Environm Sci, New Delhi 110012, India. AB The problems of agriculture in many tropical countries are gradually becoming more intense due to increasing food demand led by population growth, stagnation in farm productivity, mounting yield losses due to multiple pests, increasing vulnerability to global environmental changes and the need to reduce emission of greenhouse gases. Tools and techniques are needed to assist in developing strategies that can lead to higher food production, prevent crop production losses, and ensure minimal greenhouse gas emissions while maintaining soil fertility. Several dynamic models have been developed in recent past but most of these are generally strong either in soils and crops, or in greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions. Pest induced yield losses, a critical issue in the tropics, is not addressed in most models. InfoCrop, a generic dynamic crop model, has been developed to meet these specific requirements. It provides integrated assessment of the effect of weather, variety, pests, soil and management practices on crop growth and yield, as well as on soil nitrogen and organic carbon dynamics in aerobic as well as anaerobic conditions, and greenhouse gas emissions. The model considers the key processes related to crop growth, effects of water deficit, flooding, nitrogen management, temperature and frost stresses, crop-pest interactions, soil water and nitrogen balance and (soil) organic carbon dynamics. Its general structure relating to basic crop growth and yield is largely based on several earlier models, especially SUCROS series, and is written in Fortran Simulation Environment (FSE) programming language. The model has been validated for dry matter and grain yields of several annual crops, losses due to multiple diseases and pests, and emissions of carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide in a variety of agro-environments. To increase the applications of model in research and development, an extremely simple menu driven version of InfoCrop has also been developed. The users of this version do not need any background in programming. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 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Swiss Fed Inst Technol, CH-1015 Lausanne, Switzerland. RP Viguier, LL, Univ Geneva, Fac Econ & Social Sci, CH-1211 Geneva 4, Switzerland. AB The benefits from reducing greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions are not limited to a single consumer or group of consumers but are available to a large set of countries and populations across generations. Underprovision and free-riding are thus to be expected in the climate change issue. Optimal provision of this type of public good requires creating incentives for international cooperation. Game theorists have proposed to restructure incentives through issues linkages consisting in exchanging concessions across different policy dimensions. In this paper we discuss the opportunity to link climate change to international trade, technology R&D and diffusion, and greening development assistance. We propose another option, called the "rent-sharing" approach, that would guarantee meaningful participation of developing countries (DCs) without challenging their economic development. Developing countries would have the opportunity to enter the emission markets, and benefit from financial transfers, only if their agree with a rule that would guarantee a gainful domestic participation. Our numerical example shows that China may be better off, while accepting a significant CO2 emission reduction effort. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 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Participation, access, and vulnerability in irrigation and flood management in Pakistan SO ENVIRONMENT AND PLANNING D-SOCIETY & SPACE LA English DT Article C1 Coll Arts & Sci, Dept Geog, St Petersburg, FL 33706 USA. Univ Colorado, Dept Geog, Boulder, CO 80309 USA. RP Mustafa, D, Coll Arts & Sci, Dept Geog, 140 7th Ave S, St Petersburg, FL 33706 USA. AB In this paper I draw upon a realist conceptualization of power to inform the analysis of ethnographic data on access to irrigation water and vulnerability to flood hazard in Pakistan. I undertake an integrated analysis of the role of different types of power in influencing differential vulnerability to flood hazard and access to irrigation water in four local-level villages in central Pakistan. Three modes of power are identified: the feudal mode, the bourgeoisie mode, and the communal mode. Each of the modes relies on force, socialization, and control over resources, respectively, to ensure compliance. The villages which are dominated by large landowners tend to have the feudal mode of power as the predominant power structure, whereas the villages with relatively equal property ownership tend to have the communal mode as the dominant power structure. The analyses of power suggest that the participatory reforms in the water sector of Pakistan proposed by the World Bank are unlikely to lead to gains in either equity or efficiency as long as issues of differential power remain unaddressed. 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AB Pursuant to the commitments under the Framework Convention of Climate Change (FCCC), all Annex I Parties of FCCC have compiled their National Communications on Climate Change. There, Parties have reported the national greenhouse gas inventories, policies, and measures to address climate change, the greenhouse gas emissions projections, vulnerability and adaptation to climate change, and education and public awareness. Implementation of policies and measures to address climate change in economies in transition (EIT) is very complicated due to the experienced deep economic crisis. It is important to outline the efforts of EIT countries to identify their climate change policy and to recognize the most effective policies and measures achieved under these countries' special circumstances. This paper compiles information from the policies and measures section of the National Communications of nine EIT countries. The analysis has been carried out in the framework of overall policy context and the national circumstances of EIT countries in terms of energy and economy development. In general, policies and measures in EIT countries tend to follow the trends observed in the other Annex I Parties to the FCCC. They address primarily carbon dioxide from fossil fuel combustion as the most important greenhouse gas and the energy transformation sector as the major greenhouse emissions source. The most effective mitigation measures - in terms of both greenhouse gas emission reduction and costs were energy efficiency and the promotion of non-fossil energy sources. A prevailing part of policies and measures implemented or under implementation in EIT countries were cost-effective and no-regret measures. It was considered very difficult in these countries to go beyond no-regret measures in a situation of deep economic crisis and insufficient investments. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science Ltd. CR 1994, 1 NAT COMM CZECH REP 1995, 1 NAT COMM NAT PROC *NAT COMM IMPL COM, 1994, HUNG STAB GREENH GAS *NAT COMM REP LATV, 1995, UN FRAM CONV CLIM CH *REP BULG, 1996, 1 NAT COMM CLIM CHAN *RUSS FED, 1995, 1 NAT COMM CLIM CHAN *SLOV REP, 1995, 1 NAT COMM *UN FRAM CONV CLIM, 1994, NAT REP 1 C PART *UN FRAM CONV CLIM, 1995, EST 1 NAT COMM NR 9 TC 0 J9 APPL ENERG BP 445 EP 461 PY 1997 PD MAR-APR VL 56 IS 3-4 GA XR663 UT ISI:A1997XR66300021 ER PT J AU Robledo, C Fischler, M Patino, A TI Increasing the resilience of hillside communities in Bolivia - Has vulnerability to climate change been reduced as a result of previous sustainable development cooperation? SO MOUNTAIN RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT LA English DT Article C1 Intercooperat, Swiss Fed Labs Mat Testing & Res EMPA, CH-3001 Bern, Switzerland. ATICA, PROFOR, Cochabamba, Bolivia. RP Robledo, C, Intercooperat, Swiss Fed Labs Mat Testing & Res EMPA, MAulbeerstr 10, CH-3001 Bern, Switzerland. CR *IISD IUCN SEI B, LIV CLIM CHANG COMB NR 1 TC 0 J9 MT RES DEV BP 14 EP 18 PY 2004 PD FEB VL 24 IS 1 GA 802MY UT ISI:000220168800004 ER PT J AU Reeves, GH Bisson, PA Rieman, BE Benda, LE TI Postfire logging in riparian areas SO CONSERVATION BIOLOGY LA English DT Article C1 US Forest Serv, Pacific NW Res Stn, Forestry Sci Lab, USDA, Corvallis, OR 97331 USA. US Forest Serv, Olympia Forestry Sci Lab, USDA, Olympia, WA 98512 USA. US Forest Serv, Rocky Mt Res Stn, USDA, Boise, ID 83702 USA. Earth Syst Inst, Mt Shastia, CA 96067 USA. RP Reeves, GH, US Forest Serv, Pacific NW Res Stn, Forestry Sci Lab, USDA, 3200 SW Jefferson Way, Corvallis, OR 97331 USA. AB We reviewed the behavior of wildfire in riparian zones, primarily in the western United States, and the potential ecological consequences of postfire logging. Fire behavior in riparian zones is complex, but many aquatic and riparian organisms exhibit a suite of adaptations that allow relatively rapid recovery after fire. Unless constrained by other factors, fish tend to rebound relatively quickly, usually within a decade after a wildfire. Additionally, fire and subsequent erosion events contribute wood and coarse sediment that can create and maintain productive aquatic habitats over time. The potential effects of postfire logging in riparian areas depend on the landscape context and disturbance history of a site; however, available evidence suggests two key management implications: (I) fire in riparian areas creates conditions that may not require intervention to sustain the long-term productivity of the aquatic network and (2) protection of burned riparian areas gives priority to what is left rather than what is removed. Research is needed to determine how postfire logging in riparian areas has affected the spread of invasive species and the vulnerability of upland forests to insect and disease outbreaks and how postfire logging will affect the frequency and behavior of future fires. The effectiveness of using postfire logging to restore desired riparian structure and function is therefore unproven, but such projects are gaining interest with the departure of forest conditions from those that existed prior to timber harvest fire suppression, and climate change. In the absence of reliable information about the potential consequence of postfire timber harvest, we conclude that providing postfire riparian zones with the same environmental protections they received before they burned is justified ecologically. Without a commitment to monitor management experiments, the effects of postfire riparian logging will remain unknown and highly contentious. CR *FEMAT, 1993, FOR EC MAN EC EC SOC AGEE JK, 1993, FIRE ECOLOGY PACIFIC BEECHIE TJ, 2000, N AM J FISH MANAGE, V20, P436 BENDA L, 2003, FOREST ECOL MANAG, V178, P105 BENDA L, 2004, BIOSCIENCE, V54, P413 BENDA LE, 1987, INT ASS HYDROLOGICAL, V165, P457 BENDA LE, 1990, CAN GEOTECH J, V27, P409 BENDA LE, 1998, RIVER ECOLOGY MANAGE, P261 BENDA LE, 2002, CAN J FOREST RES, V32, P1460 BENDA LE, 2003, FOREST ECOL MANAG, V17, P1 BENDA LE, 2003, GEOLOGICAL SOC AM B BERG NH, 2002, P S EC MAN DEAD WOOD, P49 BESCHTA RL, 1987, U WASHINGTON CONTRIB, V57, P191 BESCHTA RL, 1995, WILDFIRE SALVAGE LOG BESCHTA RL, 2004, CONSERV BIOL, V18, P957 BESS EC, 2002, ENVIRON ENTOMOL, V31, P774 BISSON PA, 2003, FOREST ECOL MANAG, V178, P213 BLAKE JG, 1982, J WILDLIFE MANAGE, V46, P404 BROSOFSKE KD, 1997, ECOL APPL, V7, P1188 BROWN JK, 2003, RMRSGTR105 USDA FOR BUFFINGTON JM, 2002, RIVER RES APPL, V18, P507 DEBANO LF, 1998, FIRES EFFECT ECOSYST DUNHAM JB, 2003, FOREST ECOL MANAG, V178, P183 DWIRE KA, 2003, FOREST ECOL MANAG, V178, P61 ELLIOT WJ, 2002, 025011 ASAE EVERETT R, 2003, FOREST ECOL MANAG, V175, P31 FAUSCH KD, 2002, BIOSCIENCE, V52, P1 FOSTER D, 2003, BIOSCIENCE, V53, P77 FRANCO ED, 2004, T AM FISH SOC, V133, P1176 FRANKLIN JF, 2000, CONSERVATION BIOL PR, V1, P8 FRISSELL CA, 1997, PACIFIC SALMON THEIR, P411 FURNISS MJ, 1991, SPECIAL PUBLICATION, V19, P297 GOMI T, 2002, BIOSCIENCE, V52, P905 GREGORY SV, 1989, P CAL RIP SYST C PRO, P3 GRESSWELL RE, 1999, T AM FISH SOC, V128, P193 HAIM A, 1994, BIODIVERS CONSERV, V3, P573 HARRISON S, 1989, OIKOS, V56, P293 HELVEY JD, 1972, SERIES AM WATER RESO, V14, P308 HESSBURG PE, 2003, FOREST ECOL MANAG, V178, P23 HICKS BJ, 1991, AM FISH SOC SPEC PUB, V19, P483 HOLLING CS, 1973, ANNUAL REV ECOLOGY S, V4, P1 HOLTBY LB, 1988, CAN J FISH AQUAT SCI, V45, P502 ISAAK DJ, 2004, T AM FISH SOC, V133, P1254 KAUFFMAN JB, 2001, WORKSH MULT INFL RIP KELSEY KA, 1998, RIVER ECOLOGY MANAGE, P235 LANCASTER ST, 2003, WATER RESOUR RES, V39 LINDENMAYER DB, 2002, CONSERVING FOREST BI LINDENMAYER DB, 2004, SCIENCE, V303, P1303 LUCE CH, 2005, ENCY HYDROLOGICAL SC, P1831 LUGO AE, 1999, ECOLOGICAL STEWARDSH, V2, P219 MASONIS RJ, 1998, RIVER ECOLOGY MANAGE, P553 MAY CL, 2003, EARTH SURF PROC LAND, V28, P409 MCIVER JD, 2001, WEST J APPL FOR, V16, P159 MCKENZIE D, 2004, CONSERV BIOL, V18, P890 MEYER JL, 2001, ECOLOGY ACHIEVEMENT, P295 MILLER D, 2003, FOREST ECOL MANAG, V178, P121 MILLER M, 2000, WILDLAND FIRE ECOSYS, V2, P9 MINSHALL GW, 1989, BIOSCIENCE, V39, P707 MINSHALL GW, 1997, CAN J FISH AQUAT SCI, V54, P2509 MINSHALL GW, 2003, FOREST ECOL MANAG, V178, P155 MONTGOMERY DR, 1999, J AM WATER RESOUR AS, V35, P397 NAIMAN RJ, 1998, RIVER ECOLOGY MANAGE, P289 NAIMAN RJ, 2005, J FISH BIOL S B, V67, P166 NAIMAN RJ, 2005, RIPARIA OLSON DL, 2000, THESIS U WASHINGTON PILLIOD DS, 2003, FOREST ECOL MANAG, V178, P163 POFF NL, 1990, ENVIRON MANAGE, V14, P629 POFF RJ, 1996, STATUS SIERRA NEVADA, V2, P477 RAINVILLE RP, 1985, SILVICULTURE WILDLIF, P186 REEVES GH, 1993, T AM FISH SOC, V122, P309 REEVES GH, 1995, AM FISH S S, V17, P334 REEVES GH, 2003, CAN J FOREST RES, V33, P1363 RICE SP, 2001, CAN J FISH AQUAT SCI, V58, P824 RIEMAN B, 1997, FISHERIES, V22, P6 RIEMAN B, 2003, FOREST ECOL MANAG, V178, P197 RIEMAN BE, 2000, ENVIRON MANAGE, V25, P425 SAAB V, 1998, 11 RMRSRP USDA FOR S SESSIONS J, 2004, J FOREST, V102, P38 SPENCER CN, 2003, FOREST ECOL MANAG, V178, P5 SWANSON FJ, 1988, BIOSCIENCE, V38, P92 TROMBULAK SC, 2000, CONSERV BIOL, V14, P18 VANNOTE RL, 1980, CAN J FISH AQUAT SCI, V37, P130 WEINS JA, 2002, FRESHWATER BIOL, V47, P501 WIPFLI MS, 2002, FRESHWATER BIOL, V47, P957 WONDZELL SM, 2003, FOREST ECOL MANAG, V178, P75 NR 85 TC 0 J9 CONSERV BIOL BP 994 EP 1004 PY 2006 PD AUG VL 20 IS 4 GA 070SX UT ISI:000239545500011 ER PT J AU Aggarwal, RM TI Globalization, local ecosystems, and the rural poor SO WORLD DEVELOPMENT LA English DT Article C1 So Methodist Univ, Dallas, TX 75275 USA. RP Aggarwal, RM, So Methodist Univ, Dallas, TX 75275 USA. AB In this paper, we draw upon models from ecology and New Institutional Economics to examine the various mechanisms through which globalization can lead to loss in resilience of ecosystems and thus increase the vulnerability of poor people who depend on it. To illustrate eco-logical dynamics, we examine a semi-arid savanna ecosystem that is characterized by nonlinearities and multiple steady states. We discuss how traditional knowledge and institutions affect resource use patterns and resilience of such an ecosystem in the absence of trade. Then we examine the effects of trade liberalization and international technology transfers on institutional and ecological dynamics, and consequently, on poverty. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *WORLD BANK, 2002, GLOB GROWTH POV BUIL AKERLOF G, 1984, EC THEORISTS BOOK TA ALTIERI MA, 2002, AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON, V93, P1 BARDHAN P, 1989, WORLD DEV, V17, P1389 BERKES F, 1989, COMMON PROPERTY RESO BERKES F, 1998, LINKING SOCIAL ECOLO, V1, P1 BERKES F, 2001, PANARCHY UNDERSTANDI BROCK WA, 2001, PANARCHY UNDERSTANDI CHICHILNISKY G, 1994, AM ECON REV, V84, P851 CHOPRA K, 2001, SOCIAL CAPITAL DEV R CLARK WC, 1986, SUSTAINABLE DEV BIOS COMMON M, 1992, ECOL ECON, V6, P7 COPELAND BR, 2004, J ECON LIT, V42, P7 COSTANZA R, 2001, I ECOSYSTEMS SUSTAIN DASGUPTA P, 1993, INQUIRY WELL BEING D ESKELAND GS, 2003, J DEV ECON, V70, P1 GHAI D, 1992, GRASSROOTS ENV ACTIO GROSSMAN GM, 1993, US MEXICO FREE TRADE GUNDERSON LH, 2002, PANARCHY UNDERSTANDI, V1, P1 HOLLING CS, 1986, SUSTAINABLE DEV BIOS, V1, P1 LANE C, 1992, GRASSROOTS ENV ACTIO LOPEZ R, 1997, J DEV EC, V3 NAIMIRFULLER M, 1998, LINKING SOCIAL ECOLO NORTH DC, 1989, WORLD DEV, V17, P1319 OSTROM E, 1990, GOVERNING COMMONS EV OSTROM E, 1997, RULES GAMES COMMON P PEARCE D, 1995, SCI AM, V272, P52 PERRINGS C, 1995, ECON APPL, V48, P121 PRITCHARD L, 2001, PANARCHY UNDERSTANDI ROSS M, 2001, TIMBER BOOMS I BREAK SAHAI S, 2003, EC POLITICAL WE 0726 SCHEFFER M, 2001, PANARCHY UNDERSTANDI SINDZINGRE A, 2004, UNU WIDER WORKSH IMP WALKER BH, 1981, J ECOL, V69, P473 WESTLEY F, 2001, PANARCHY UNDERSTANDI WHEELER D, 2000, GROWTH POLICY MANAGE YOUNG S, 2004, MULTINATIONALS PUBLI NR 37 TC 1 J9 WORLD DEVELOP BP 1405 EP 1418 PY 2006 PD AUG VL 34 IS 8 GA 081GO UT ISI:000240305400006 ER PT J AU Miles, L Newton, AC DeFries, RS Ravilious, C May, I Blyth, S Kapos, V Gordon, JE TI A global overview of the conservation status of tropical dry forests SO JOURNAL OF BIOGEOGRAPHY LA English DT Article C1 UNEP World Conservat Monitoring Ctr, Cambridge CB3 0DL, England. Bournemouth Univ, Sch Conservat Sci, Poole BH12 5BB, Dorset, England. Univ Maryland, Dept Geog, College Pk, MD 20742 USA. Earth Syst Sci Interdisciplinary Ctr, College Pk, MD USA. Univ Durham, Dept Geog, Durham DH1 3HP, England. RP Miles, L, UNEP World Conservat Monitoring Ctr, 219 Huntingdon Rd, Cambridge CB3 0DL, England. AB Aim: To analyse the conservation status of tropical dry forests at the global scale, by combining a newly developed global distribution map with spatial data describing different threats, and to identify the relative exposure of different forest areas to such threats. Location: Global assessment. Methods: We present a new global distribution map of tropical dry forest derived from the recently developed MODIS Vegetation Continuous Fields (VCF) product, which depicts percentage tree cover at a resolution of 500 m, combined with previously defined maps of biomes. This distribution map was overlaid with spatial data to estimate the exposure of tropical dry forests to a number of different threats: climate change, habitat fragmentation, fire, human population density and conversion to cropland. The extent of tropical dry forest currently protected was estimated by overlaying the forest map with a global data set of the distribution of protected areas. Results: It is estimated that 1,048,700 km(2) of tropical dry forest remains, distributed throughout the three tropical regions. More than half of the forest area (54.2%) is located within South America, the remaining area being almost equally divided between North and Central America, Africa and Eurasia, with a relatively small proportion (3.8%) occurring within Australasia and Southeast Asia. Overall, c. 97% of the remaining area of tropical dry forest is at risk from one or more of the threats considered, with highest percentages recorded for Eurasia. The relative exposure to different threats differed between regions: while climate change is relatively significant in the Americas, habitat fragmentation and fire affect a higher proportion of African forests, whereas agricultural conversion and human population density are most influential in Eurasia. Evidence suggests that c. 300,000 km(2) of tropical dry forest now coincide with some form of protected area, with 71.8% of this total being located within South America. Main conclusions: Virtually all of the tropical dry forests that remain are currently exposed to a variety of different threats, largely resulting from human activity. Taking their high biodiversity value into consideration, this indicates that tropical dry forests should be accorded high conservation priority. The results presented here could be used to identify which forest areas should be accorded highest priority for conservation action. In particular, the expansion of the global protected area network, particularly in Mesoamerica, should be given urgent consideration. 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Populat Project, IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria. Austrian Acad Syst, Inst Demog, Vienna, Austria. Univ Vienna, A-1010 Vienna, Austria. RP Curran, SR, Princeton Univ, Undergrad Studies Sociol, 153 Wallace Hall, Princeton, NJ 08544 USA. CR *FAO, 2001, WORLD FISH AQ ATL CD *ICLARM, 2001, FIN REP SUST MAN COA *INT CTR LIV AQ RE, 1999, STRAT PLAN 2000 2010 *IWICM, 1996, ENH SUCC INT COAST M *NAT RES COUNC, 1997, ENV SIGN CONS RES DI *UN DEV PROGR, 1997, WORLD DEV REP *WORLD RES I, 1995, NATURAL RESOURCE CON ADGER WN, 2002, AMBIO, V31, P358 ASWANI S, 2002, AMBIO, V31, P272 BARBIER E, 2002, AMBIO, V31, P351 BERKES F, 1998, LINKING SOCIAL ECOLO, V1, P1 BREMNER J, AMBIO, V31, P306 BROWN LR, 1994, WORLDWATCH ENV ALERT BRYANT D, 1998, REEFS RISK MAP BASED BURKE L, 2001, PILOT ANAL GLOBAL EC, CH17 CHRISTIE P, 1997, COAST MANAGE, V25, P155 CHUA TE, 1998, AMBIO, V27, P599 COHEN J, 1998, HYPSOGRAPHIC DEMOGRA COHEN JE, 1995, MANY PEOPLE CAN EART COHEN JE, 1997, SCIENCE, V278, P1211 CURRAN SR, 2002, POPULATION ENV MET S, V28, P89 DASGUPTA P, 2002, AMBIO, V31, P269 DOOS BR, 1997, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V7, P41 DURNING A, 1992, MUCH IS ENOUGH EHRLICH PR, 1995, POPULATION BOMB GAMMAGE S, 2002, AMBIO, V31, P285 HINRICHSEN D, 1998, COASTAL WATERS WORLD HONGSKUL V, 1999, FAO RAP WORKING PAPE, V1 JOLLY C, 1993, POPULATION LAND USE KEYFITZ N, 1991, POPUL INDEX, V57, P5 KRAMER RA, 2002, AMBIO, V31, P367 LEACH M, 2000, POPULAT DEV REV LEBEL L, AMBIO, V31, P311 LONG I, 1990, POPULATION TODAY, V18, P6 LUTZ W, 2001, NATURE, V412, P543 LUTZ W, 2002, POPULATION ENV METHO, V28 MARQUETTE CM, 2002, AMBIO, V31, P324 MASSEY DS, 1990, POPUL INDEX, V56, P3 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 NAYLOR RL, 2002, AMBIO, V31, P340 NORONHA L, 2002, AMBIO, V31, P295 PAULY D, 1995, NATURE, V374, P255 PAULY D, 1998, SCIENCE, V279, P860 SORENSEN J, 1997, COAST MANAGE, V25, P3 WILLIAMS MJ, 1996, 13 INT FOOD POL RES, P41 WILSON EO, 1988, BIODIVERSITY NR 46 TC 1 J9 AMBIO BP 264 EP 268 PY 2002 PD JUN VL 31 IS 4 GA 576EC UT ISI:000176989000002 ER PT J AU Hlohowskyj, I Brody, MS Lackey, RT TI Methods for assessing the vulnerability of African fisheries resources to climate change SO CLIMATE RESEARCH LA English DT Article C1 US EPA,OFF POLICY PLANNING & EVALUAT,WASHINGTON,DC 20460. US EPA,ENVIRONM RES LAB,CORVALLIS,OR 97333. RP Hlohowskyj, I, ARGONNE NATL LAB,ENVIRONM ASSESSMENT DIV,9700 S CASS AVE,ARGONNE,IL 60439. AB Because of the dietary and financial importance of fisheries resources in many African countries, concerns have been expressed regarding the potential for adverse impacts to fisheries resources from climate change, and a need has been identified for assessment tools that can evaluate the potential for impacts in a timely and cost-effective manner. This paper presents a framework and set of methods for assessing the potential effects of climate change on fisheries resources in Africa. The framework identifies the need to first link predicted climate changes to changes in the aquatic environment, and only then can potential impacts to aquatic resources be evaluated. The approach developed for Africa was constrained by several factors, including availability of existing data and assessment technologies, and the need for a rapid evaluation of potential climate impacts. The assessment approach employs a variety of methods including empirical models which predict changes in mortality, maximum sustainable yield, and yearly catch, a bioenergetics model, and a habitat suitability model Previously developed or newly derived site-specific empirical models can be used to compare mortality, yield, and annual catch estimates among historic, current, and predicted climate conditions. Similarly, bioenergetics modeling can be used to compare growth rates and biomass production among different climate conditions. Habitat suitability models can be developed for current climate conditions, and the effects of changes in climate-driven habitat variables such as water depth, temperature, and current velocity on habitat suitability can be evaluated for different climate conditions. Use of these approaches is recommended because they can utilize existing ecological data and do not require extensive new data collection activities, they are not technologically complex, and they can provide evaluations of potential climate change impacts in a timely and cost-effective manner. CR *EPA, 1992, EPA630R92001 *US COUNTR STUD PR, 1994, GUID VULN AD ASS VER ARMOUR CL, 1991, FISHERIES, V16, P36 BLUMBERG AF, 1990, T AM FISH SOC, V119, P224 BYRON ER, 1989, POTENTIAL EFFECTS GL, CH4 CARPENTER SR, 1992, ANNU REV ECOL SYST, V23, P119 CHRISTIE GC, 1988, CAN J FISH AQUAT SCI, V45, P301 COUTANT CC, 1990, T AM FISH SOC, V119, P240 CRANCE JH, 1987, 8210134 US FISH WILD CRUL RCM, 1992, 16 CIFA DELAY WH, 1966, J SANIT ENG DIV AM S, V92, P115 DIXON RK, 1996, IN PRESS AMBIO GARCIA S, 1981, 203 FOA FOOD AGR ORG GORDON ND, 1992, STREAM HYDROLOGY GORE JA, 1991, WATER SA, V17, P225 HAYS RL, 1987, USERS MANUAL MICRO H HEWETT SW, 1992, WISSG91250 U WISC SE HILL DK, 1990, T AM FISH SOC, V119, P265 HOCUTT CH, 1986, ZOOGEOGRAPHY N AM FR HOUGHTON JT, 1992, SUPPLEMENTAL REPORT JOBLING M, 1981, J FISH BIOL, V19, P439 KENNEDY VS, 1990, FISHERIES, V15, P16 KITCHELL JF, 1977, J FISH RES BOARD CAN, V34, P1922 LEWIS D, 1986, GUIDE FISHES LAKE MA LOWEMCCONNELL RH, 1987, ECOLOGICAL STUDIES T MAGNUSON JJ, 1990, T AM FISH SOC, V119, P254 MATTHEWS WJ, 1990, FISHERIES, V15, P26 MCCAULEY RW, 1990, T AM FISH SOC, V119, P276 MCCORMICK MJ, 1990, T AM FISH SOC, V119, P183 MEARNS LO, 1990, CLIMATE CHANGE US WA, P87 MEISNER JD, 1987, J GREAT LAKES RES, V13, P340 MEISNER JD, 1990, T AM FISH SOC, V119, P282 MEISNER JD, 1992, GEOJOURNAL, V28, P21 MINNS CK, 1992, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V22, P327 MOYLE PB, 1988, FISHES INTRO ICHTHYO PAULY D, 1980, J CONS INT EXPLOR ME, V39, P175 PAULY D, 1983, 234 FAO FOOD AGR ORG RAMOSMANE C, 1995, DOEPO0032 US DEP EN REGIER HA, 1990, FISHERIES, V15, P10 REGIER HA, 1990, T AM FISH SOC, V119, P374 ROGERS PP, 1990, CLIMATE CHANGE US WA, P207 SAGUA VO, 1993, EFFECTS CLIMATE CHAN SATHAYE J, 1995, GREENHOUSE GAS MITIG SCHAAKE JC, 1990, CLIMATE CHANGE US WA, P177 SCHLESINGER DA, 1982, T AM FISH SOC, V111, P141 SCHLESINGER DA, 1983, CAN J FISH AQUAT SCI, V40, P1829 SHUTER BJ, 1983, CAN J FISH AQUAT SCI, V40, P1838 SHUTER BJ, 1992, GEOJOURNAL, V28, P7 SMITH JB, 1989, POTENTIAL EFFECTS GL SNIDER MA, 1994, GIS WORLD, V7, P50 STEFAN HG, 1993, J ENVIRON QUAL, V22, P417 STEFAN HG, 1993, WATER RESOUR BULL, V29, P27 THOMANN R, 1987, PRINCIPLES SURFACE W TURNER RE, 1977, T AM FISH SOC, V106, P411 TURNER RE, 1983, FWSOBS821054 US DEP TURNER RE, 1988, ECOLOGY MANAGEMENT W, V1, P25 TURNER RE, 1992, STEMMING TIDE COASTA, P97 TYUS HM, 1989, 8914 US DEP INT FISH TYUS HM, 1991, HABITAT USE STREAMFL UNGANAI LS, 1996, CLIMATE RES, V6, P137 WELCOMME RL, 1976, J FISH BIOL, V8, P351 WELCOMME RL, 1977, ENVIRON BIOL FISH, V2, P7 WELCOMME RL, 1980, COMP STUDIES FRESHWA, P268 WELCOMME RL, 1985, 262 FAO FOOD AGR ORG NR 64 TC 1 J9 CLIMATE RES BP 97 EP 106 PY 1996 PD FEB 19 VL 6 IS 2 GA UD549 UT ISI:A1996UD54900003 ER PT J AU Mobjork, M Linner, BO TI Sustainable funding? How funding agencies frame science for sustainable development SO ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE & POLICY LA English DT Article C1 Linkoping Univ, Dept Water & Environm Studies, S-58183 Linkoping, Sweden. Linkoping Univ, Swedish Inst Climate Sci & Policy Res, S-58183 Linkoping, Sweden. Royal Inst Technol, Dept Infrastruct Urban Studies, Stockholm, Sweden. RP Linner, BO, Linkoping Univ, Dept Water & Environm Studies, S-58183 Linkoping, Sweden. AB This article explores how research funding agencies have responded to the challenge of operationalising the policy agenda of sustainable development. Drawing on the results of a research project studying Swedish funding agencies' policy declarations, mandates and priorities as well as abstracts from funded projects, we analyse how the research domains of sustainable development are defined as well as what type of research projects they support. The article discusses consequences for the internationally emerging field of science for sustainable development. We conclude that even though economic and social aspects have been increasingly recognised, agencies predominantly emphasise the environmental dimension of sustainable development. The agencies characterise environmental research in terms of basic research and sustainable development research as applied. As a consequence, sustainable development research has become heavily oriented towards implementing the dominant political agenda. Such short-term political utility is interpreted by the funding agencies as applied research. A worrying consequence is that many fundamental questions posed within the area of sustainable development receive little or no attention in the funding agencies' priorities. Such neglected research domains include those that posit alternative framings, identify potential problems and reflect on implications of current sustainable development policy. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR 1994, MISTRA ENV RES SWEDE 1994, MISTRA STRENGTHENING 1997, MISTRA ANN REPORTS 1 1997, MISTRA MILJOSTRATEGI 1999, MISTRA VAGVISARE MIS 2000, MISTRA 2004 2000, MISTRA SVENSKA FORSK 2002, FORMAS FORMAS FORSKN 2002, NATURVARDSVERKET PRO 2003, MISTRA VAGVISARE MIS 2004, FORMAS FORSKNINGSSTR 2004, FORMAS MANNISKOR MIL 2004, MISTRA MISTRA MOT 20 2004, MISTRA VAGVISARE MIS 2005, MISTRA STATUTES *ICSU, 2002, INT COUNCIL SCI SERI, V9 *RES COUNC, 2002, ANN REP *S CTR, 2002, S SUST DEV CON STOCK *SIDA, 1994, 1994132 DS SIDA *SIDA, 1996, SID POL SUST DEV *SIDA, 2004, SID ROL IN RESP GLOB *UN, 1992, UN C ENV DEV RIO DE *UN, 2002, UN WORLD SUMM SUST D *WORLD COMM ENV DE, 1987, COMM FUT BECKER E, 1998, SUSTAINABILITY SOCIA CLARK WC, 2003, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V100, P8059 DELANTY G, 2001, CHALLENGING KNOWLEDG DEMERITT D, 2000, ANTIPODE, V32 DOBSON A, 1996, 4 KEEL U DEP POL DRYZEK JS, 1997, POLITICS EARTH ENV D EICHLER M, 1999, SUSTAINABILITY SOCIA GIBBONS M, 1994, NEW PRODUCTION KNOWL GIDDINGS B, 2002, SUSTAIN DEV, V10, P187 GOODLAND R, 1996, ECOL APPL, V6, P1002 HAJER MA, 1995, POLITICS ENV DISCOUR HJERPE M, 2005, THESIS LINKOPING HUBER J, 1982, REGENBOGENSELLSCHAFT JAMESON F, 1981, POLITICAL UNCONSCIOU JANICKE M, 1985, PREVENTIVE ENV POLIC KATES RW, 2001, SCIENCE, V292, P641 KOHN J, 1997, SUSTAINABILITY QUEST LELE S, 1996, CONSERV BIOL, V10, P354 LEYDESDORFF L, 1997, TRIPLE HELIX U IND G LINNER B, 2005, FURTHERING CONSENSUS LUNDGREN LJ, 2002, 8 VR MOBJORK M, 2004, THESIS LINKOPING MOL APJ, 1997, INT HDB ENV SOCIOLOG, P139 MOL APJ, 2001, GLOBALIZATION ENV RE MORRIS N, 2000, MINERVA, V38, P425 NOLIN J, 2000, STRATEGIER FINANSIER NOWOTNY H, 2001, RETHINKING SCI KNOWL OWENS S, 2003, PLANT GENET RES, V1, P5 PHAELKE R, 1999, SUSTAINABILITY SOCIA REBORATTI C, 1999, SUSTAINABILITY SOCIA REDCLIFT W, 1997, INT HDB ENV SOC, P55 RIJSBERMAN MA, 2000, ENVIRON IMPACT ASSES, V20, P333 SELIN H, 2005, 5 HARV U CTR INT DEV NR 57 TC 0 J9 ENVIRON SCI POLICY BP 67 EP 77 PY 2006 VL 9 IS 1 GA 019NY UT ISI:000235845200007 ER PT J AU Knogge, T Schirmer, M Schuchardt, B TI Landscape-scale socio-economics of sea-level rise SO IBIS LA English DT Article C1 Reg Consulting, D-28201 Bremen, Germany. Univ Bremen, Dept Aquat Ecol, D-28334 Bremen, Germany. BioConsult, D-28757 Bremen, Germany. RP Knogge, T, Reg Consulting, Hegelstr 60, D-28201 Bremen, Germany. AB Flooding due to sea-level rise resulting from climate may have serious socio-economic consequences. Socio-economic impacts of an accelerated sea-level rise are often described at an aggregated spatial level that is useful for inter-regional or international comparisons, but this is of limited value for determining local effects. Local effects need to be based on the local attributes of coastal vulnerability at the landscape level, especially if effects on the natural environment are of particular interest. In analysing the socio-economics of sea-level rise at the landscape scale, it is also important to consider how humans might adapt to any risks. This paper gives an overview of the methodologies used for socio-economic studies carried out at a regional level and places the results of the studies in the context of waterbirds and the environment. A German study made at the landscape level, using a multidisciplinary approach to deal with the various possible effects of sea-level rise, is discussed. The economic impacts of sea-level rise may be lowered by our ability to adapt to the changes. The options of whether to protect, retreat or accommodate, however, may affect the effects of sea-level rise on coastal habitats and the bird populations that they support. Strengthening of embankments and the creation of storm surge barriers and dams, for example, might lead to the reduction of intertidal and saltmarsh habitats and their associated bird populations. Managed retreat, by contrast, may prevent the loss of these habitats. The decision as to which option is chosen, however, is likely to be largely influenced by local economic considerations. CR *IPCC, 1991, 7 STEPS ASS VULN COA MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 ATKINSON PW, 2004, IBIS, V146, P102 AUSTIN G, 2003, J NAT CONSERV, V11, P43 BOERE GC, 2004, IBIS S1, V146, P112 CLINE WR, 1992, EC GLOBAL WARMING CROOKS S, 2004, IBIS S1, V146, S18 DARWIN RF, 1999, D9811 IVM I ENV STUD EBENHOH W, 1997, 01LK91148 BMBF FANKHAUSER S, 1994, EC CLIMATE CHANGE, P71 FANKHAUSER S, 1994, ENVIRON PLANN A, V27, P299 FANKHAUSER S, 1995, VALUING CLIMATE CHAN HOOZEMANS FMJ, 1993, GLOBAL VULNERABILITY KLEIN RJT, 1999, AMBIO, V28, P182 KLEIN RJT, 1999, MITIGATION ADAPTATIO, V4, P189 KNOGGE T, 2002, ENV SHOCKS LONG TERM LAMBECK RHD, 1991, ACTA INT ORNITHOL C, V20, P2208 MEIRE PM, 1991, ACTA INT ORNITHOL C, V20, P2219 NICHOLLS RJ, 1995, J COASTAL RES, V14, P26 NORDHAUS WD, 1991, ECON J, V101, P920 OSTERKAMP S, 2001, CLIMATE RES, V18, P97 PETHICK J, 2001, CATENA, V42, P307 PETHICK J, 2002, RESTOR ECOL, V10, P431 REHFISCH MM, 1994, J APPL ECOL, V31, P383 SCHEKKERMAN H, 1994, HYDROBIOLOGIA, V282, P509 SCHIRMER M, 2001, CLIMATE RES, V18, P133 TOL RSJ, 1995, ENVIRON RESOUR ECON, V5, P353 VONLIEBERMAN N, 1999, BREMER BEITRAGE GEOG, V35, P109 WATSON RT, 1998, REGIONAL IMPACTS CLI, V1, P1 YOHE GW, 1995, J ENV EC, V29, P78 NR 30 TC 0 J9 IBIS BP 11 EP 17 PY 2004 PD SEP VL 146 GA 858CD UT ISI:000224166900004 ER PT J AU Fairbanks, DHK Benn, GA TI Identifying regional landscapes for conservation planning: a case study from KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa SO LANDSCAPE AND URBAN PLANNING LA English DT Article C1 CSIR, Div Water Environm & Forestry, ZA-0001 Pretoria, South Africa. Univ Pretoria, Dept Zool & Entomol, Conservat Planning Unit, ZA-0002 Pretoria, South Africa. KwaZulu Natal Natal Nat Conservat Serv, ZA-3002 Cascades, South Africa. RP Fairbanks, DHK, CSIR, Div Water Environm & Forestry, POB 395, ZA-0001 Pretoria, South Africa. AB The application of landscape ecology in conservation biology has rarely occurred in the context of defined landscapes. Conservation planning has focussed on representation of species diversity patterns and assumed that ecosystems, landscapes and their associated processes will be equally protected. The long-term persistence of biodiversity in the face of land transformations and global change requires the representation and retention of all elements of biodiversity. This biodiversity includes landscapes, and the landscape structure and processes that maintain patterns of biodiversity. We developed a method of classifying landscapes for the KwaZulu-Natal province of South Africa. The process entailed the use of 1 km(2) grid data from climate and terrain databases. Principal components analysis coupled with a cluster classification method and spatial overlay techniques were used to identify two hierarchical levels of landscapes. Validation analysis showed that landscapes are identifiable with a classification accuracy of 86.8%. The derived landscapes can be combined separately with data on vegetation and soil to describe landscape ecosystems that potentially differ in species composition, successional dynamics, and potential productivity. The surrogate use of the landscapes in conjunction with other strategic data, for the identification of priority conservation areas, is demonstrated. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. CR *DWAF, 1996, HYDR CATCHM S AFR SW *ESRI, 1997, ARC GRID ARCV COMM R *US GEOL SURV, 1996, EL DAT AFR EROS DAT ACOCKS JPH, 1953, MEM BOT SURV S AFR, V28, P1 BAILEY RG, 1996, ECOSYSTEM GEOGRAPHY BAKER WL, 1992, LANDSCAPE ECOL, V7, P181 BARBAULT R, 1995, LANDSCAPE URBAN PLAN, V31, P89 BEDWARD M, 1992, BIOL CONSERV, V62, P115 BELL RHV, 1982, ECOLOGY TROPICAL SAV, P193 BENEFIELD CB, 1982, 91 ITS BERNERT JA, 1997, ENVIRON MANAGE, V21, P405 BISHOP Y, 1975, DISCRETE MULTIVARIAT BLANKSON EJ, 1991, LANDSCAPE URBAN PLAN, V21, P149 BREININGER DR, 1995, CONSERV BIOL, V9, P1442 BURNETT MR, 1998, CONSERV BIOL, V12, P363 CHRISTIAN CS, 1953, LAND RES SERIES, V1 CHRISTOPHER AJ, 1982, S AFRICA WORLDS LAND CONGALTON RG, 1983, PHOTOGRAMM ENG REM S, V49, P1671 COWLING RM, 1997, VEGETATION SO AFRICA DAVIS FW, 1996, SIERRA NEVADA ECOSYS, V2, P671 DEAGAR PM, 1995, ENVIRON MANAGE, V19, P345 DENT MA, 1989, 109189 WRC DIAMOND J, 1988, ANN MISSOURI BOTANIC, V75, P117 DOAK DF, 1995, CONSERV BIOL, V9, P1370 ELLERY WN, 1992, A AFR J SCI, V87, P499 ELLERY WN, 1995, S AFR J RANGE FORAGE, V12, P38 FAIRBANKS DHK, 1996, S AFR J SCI, V92, P465 FAIRBANKS DHK, 2000, S AFR J SCI, V96, P69 FORMAN RTT, 1995, LAND MOSAICS ECOLOGY FRANKLIN JF, 1993, ECOL APPL, V3, P202 FREITAG S, 1995, S AFR J ZOOL, V30, P136 GALLANT AL, 1995, 1567 US GEOL SURV GERTENBACH WPD, 1983, KOEDOE, V26, P9 GREEN BH, 1996, LANDSCAPE CONSERVATI HANSSON L, 1991, LANDSCAPE ECOL, V5, P191 HARNER RF, 1976, ECOLOGY, V57, P1254 HOST GE, 1996, ECOL APPL, V6, P608 HUNTER ML, 1988, CONSERV BIOL, V2, P375 HUNTLEY BJ, 1989, BIOTIC DIVERSITY SO JENKS GF, 1963, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V53, P15 JOUBERT AM, 1997, PROG PHYS GEOG, V21, P51 KRATZ TK, 1991, AM NAT, V138, P355 LAMBERSON RH, 1992, CONSERV BIOL, V6, P505 LAPIN M, 1995, CONSERV BIOL, V9, P1148 LEGENDRE P, 1998, DEV ENV MODELLING, V20 LINACRE ET, 1977, AGR METEOROL, V18, P409 LOMBARD AT, 1995, S AFR J ZOOL, V30, P145 LOW AB, 1996, VEGETATION S AFRICA MADDOCK A, 1999, BIODIVERS CONSERV, V8, P603 MARGULES CR, 1988, BIOL CONSERV, V43, P63 MARGULES CR, 1995, BIORAP RAPID ASSESSM NICHOLS WF, 1998, CONSERV BIOL, V12, P371 NOSS RF, 1983, BIOSCIENCE, V33, P700 NOSS RF, 1990, CONSERV BIOL, V4, P355 NOSS RF, 1996, TRENDS ECOL EVOL, V11, P351 OMERNIK JM, 1987, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V77, P118 OMERNIK JM, 1995, BIOL ASSESSMENT CRIT, P107 ONEILL RV, 1986, HIERARCHICAL CONCEPT PETERS RL, 1992, GLOBAL WARMING BIOL PRESSEY RL, 1989, BIOL CONSERV, V50, P199 PRESSEY RL, 1994, BIODIVERS CONSERV, V3, P242 PRESSEY RL, 1994, SYSTEMATICS CONSERVA, P351 PRESSEY RL, 1996, BIOL CONSERV, V76, P259 PRESSEY RL, 1996, FOREST ECOL MANAG, V85, P311 PRESSEY RL, 1997, NATL PARKS PROTECTED REBELO AG, 1990, BIOL CONSERV, V54, P15 SAMWAYS MJ, 1990, CONSERV BIOL, V4, P375 SCARPACE F, 1981, PHOTOGRAMMETRIC ENG, V52, P829 SCHOLES RJ, 1993, AFRICAN SAVANNA SYNT SCHOLES RJ, 1997, PROG PHYS GEOG, V21, P102 SCHULZE RE, 1998, TT8296 WAT RES COMM SCOTT JM, 1993, WILDLIFE MONOGR, V123, P1 STRITTHOLT JR, 1995, CONSERV BIOL, V9, P1492 TURNER MG, 1989, LANDSCAPE ECOLOGY, V3, P153 WIENS JA, 1992, LANDSCAPE ECOL, V7, P149 WIKEN E, 1986, ECOLOGICAL LAND CLAS, V19 WRIGHT RG, 1994, CONSERV BIOL, V8, P207 WRIGHT RG, 1998, BIOL CONSERV, V86, P207 NR 78 TC 13 J9 LANDSCAPE URBAN PLAN BP 237 EP 257 PY 2000 PD AUG 30 VL 50 IS 4 GA 348AR UT ISI:000088962100004 ER PT J AU Schumacher, BD Parrish, JD TI Spatial relationships between an introduced snapper and native goatfishes on Hawaiian reefs SO BIOLOGICAL INVASIONS LA English DT Article C1 Univ Hawaii Manoa, US Geol Survey, Dept Zool, Hawaii Cooperat Fishery Res Unit, Honolulu, HI 96822 USA. RP Schumacher, BD, Univ Hawaii Manoa, US Geol Survey, Dept Zool, Hawaii Cooperat Fishery Res Unit, Honolulu, HI 96822 USA. AB It has been suggested that the introduced blueline snapper (Lutjanus kasmira, Family: Lutjanidae) may adversely affect populations of native fishery species in Hawai'i through competition for spatial or dietary resources, or through predation on young fish. We studied the habitat use patterns of L. kasmira and several native reef fish species using direct observation by SCUBA divers. Habitat use patterns of the yellowtail goatfish (Mulloidichthys vanicolensis, Family: Mullidae) were most similar to those of L. kasmira. Both species were primarily found low in the water column and were closely associated with areas of vertical relief. Individual M. vanicolensis were found higher in the water column when L. kasmira were present, but L. kasmira were not similarly affected by M. vanicolensis. This finding suggests asymmetrical competition for shelter, in which the dominant L. kasmira displaces M. vanicolensis farther into the water column. This displacement from the protection of the reef could increase the vulnerability of M. vanicolensis to predators and fishers. CR ABBOTT JC, 1989, BEHAVIOUR, V108, P104 ALANARA A, 1997, P WORKSH VOL FOOD IN, P10 BALTZ DM, 1993, ECOL APPL, V3, P246 BONFERRONI CE, 1936, PUBBLICAZIONI R I SU, V8, P3 CASE TJ, 1991, BIOL J LINN SOC, V42, P239 DEFELICE RC, 2003, PAC SCI, V57, P359 ELTON CS, 1958, ECOLOGY INVASIONS AN FRIEDLANDER AM, 2002, J FISH BIOL, V60, P28 HAIGHT WR, 1993, T AM FISH SOC, V122, P328 HIATT RW, 1960, ECOL MONOGR, V30, P65 HOBSON ES, 1972, FISH B US, V70, P715 HOBSON ES, 1974, FISH B, V72, P915 HOLBROOK SJ, 2002, ECOLOGY, V83, P2855 HOLLAND KN, 1993, B MAR SCI, V52, P982 HOLM S, 1979, SCAND J STAT, V6, P65 KANAYAMA RK, 1972, INTRO MARINE GAME FI LEVINE JM, 2000, SCIENCE, V288, P852 MACARTHUR RH, 1967, ISLAND BIOGEOGRAPHY MAZEAUD MM, 1977, T AM FISH SOC, V106, P201 MEYER CG, 2000, ENVIRON BIOL FISH, V59, P235 NAEEM S, 2000, OIKOS, V91, P97 ODA DK, 1982, P 4 INT COR REEF S, V1, P59 PIET GJ, 1999, CAN J FISH AQUAT SCI, V56, P1241 RANDALL RE, 1993, PAC SCI, V47, P356 RICE WR, 1989, EVOLUTION, V43, P223 RICKLEFS RE, 2000, ECOLOGY ROSS ST, 1986, COPEIA, P352 ROSS ST, 1991, ENVIRON BIOL FISH, V30, P359 SCHMITT RJ, 1999, OECOLOGIA, V118, P76 SLOMAN KA, 2002, J FISH BIOL, V61, P1 SORDEN CT, 1982, THESIS U HAWAII HONO STACHOWICZ JJ, 1999, SCIENCE, V286, P1577 TAKATA M, 1956, INTRO MARINE GAME FI WANG N, 2000, N AM J AQUACULT, V62, P161 NR 34 TC 0 J9 BIOL INVASIONS BP 925 EP 933 PY 2005 PD NOV VL 7 IS 6 GA 980RI UT ISI:000233035500004 ER PT J AU Godal, O TI The IPCC's assessment of multidisciplinary issues: The case of greenhouse gas indices - An editorial essay SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Editorial Material C1 CICERO, N-0318 Oslo, Norway. Univ Bergen, Dept Econ, N-5020 Bergen, Norway. RP Godal, O, CICERO, POB 1129, N-0318 Oslo, Norway. CR AAHEIM HA, 1999, ENVIRON RESOUR ECON, V14, P413 BRUCE JP, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995 ECKAUS RS, 1992, ENERGY J, V13, P25 FANKHAUSER S, 1994, ENERGY J, V15, P157 FUGLESTVEDT JS, 2003, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V58, P267 GODAL O, 2002, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V52, P93 HAMMITT JK, 1996, NATURE, V381, P301 HOEL M, 1995, ANN INT SOC DYN GAME, V2, P89 HOUGHTON JT, 1990, CLIMATE CHANGE 1990 HOUGHTON JT, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995 HOUGHTON JT, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995 KANDLIKAR M, 1996, ENERG ECON, V18, P265 MANNE AS, 2001, NATURE, V410, P675 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 METZ B, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 MICHAELIS P, 1992, ENVIRON RESOUR ECON, V2, P61 MICHAELIS P, 1999, STRUCTURAL CHANGE EC, V10, P239 REILLY JM, 1993, ENV RES EC, V3, P41 SCHMITZ B, 1993, Z DIFFERENTIELLE DIA, V14, P1 SKODVIN T, 1997, AMBIO, V26, P351 SMITH SJ, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V44, P445 TOL RSJ, 1999, ENERGY J, V20, P61 WATSON RT, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, V1, P1 WIGLEY TML, 1998, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V25, P2285 NR 24 TC 2 J9 CLIMATIC CHANGE BP 243 EP 249 PY 2003 PD JUN VL 58 IS 3 GA 682VD UT ISI:000183112300001 ER PT J AU Ben Kabbour, B Zouhri, L TI Hydrochemical and bacteriological features of the groundwater: southern border of the Rharb basin (Morocco) SO HYDROLOGICAL SCIENCES JOURNAL-JOURNAL DES SCIENCES HYDROLOGIQUES LA English DT Article C1 Univ Cadi Ayyad, Fac Sci & Technol, Dept Earth Sci, Beni Mellal, Morocco. CNRS, UMR 8107, LML, Ecole Polytech Lille, F-59655 Villeneuve Dascq, France. RP Ben Kabbour, B, Univ Cadi Ayyad, Fac Sci & Technol, Dept Earth Sci, BP 597, Beni Mellal, Morocco. AB The western reservoirs represent the principal groundwater system in Morocco. Demographic, industrial and agricultural developments during the last decade have markedly altered groundwater quality. The Mamora coastal aquifer system is among the Atlantic systems which are most heavily threatened by pollution. Agricultural and industrial activities, and rapid urban growth contribute to the pollution of the groundwater. Contamination transport is facilitated by a high permeability of the aquifer formations. In order to assess the actual groundwater quality of the Mamora aquifer and to understand the influence of the factors generating the pollution, an extensive multidisciplinary research programme is in progress, with hydrochemistry and microbiology playing essential roles. The present paper concerns the spatial distribution of physico-chemical parameters in the groundwater, subjected to domestic, industrial and agricultural pollution. Fifty-seven samples were analysed for several parameters (Ca2+, Mg2+, Na+, K+, Cl-, SO42-, HCO3-, NO3-, pH, electrical conductivity and temperature). The microbiological analysis of 143 samples reveals the presence of four kinds of indicator bacteria in the groundwater resources: faecal Streptococci, faecal coliform, Escherichia coli and Clostridium. The physico-chemical results and bacteriological monitoring show that the nitrate and bacteria concentrations exceed the maximum admissible levels, notably around pumping stations in the sectors of Sidi Taibi, Sidi Ahmed Taleb and Ain Sbaa. Contamination is generated by uncontrolled anthropogenic activities and accentuated by the high intrinsic vulnerability of the aquifer system. Several parameters appeared to exceed admissibility standards. Measures are recommended to prevent groundwater pollution in the region. CR *DRPE, 1989, ET PLAN DIR INT AM ANNOUA S, 1992, MEMOIRE ETUDE BANTON O, 1999, HYDROGEOLOGIE MULTIS BENKABBOUR B, 2002, EXPLORATION EVALUATI COMBE M, 1975, RESSOURCES MAROC, V2 DUROV SA, 1948, DOKL AKAD NAUK SSSR, V59, P87 DUSSART L, 2003, WATER RES, V37, P1593 DUSSARTBAPTISTA L, 2003, J HYDROL, V284, P285 ELMANDOUR A, 1996, IDENTIFICATION STRUC FAKIR Y, 2001, THESIS U CADI AYAD M LHADI E, 1996, HYDROGEOLOGIE, V3, P35 LLOYD JW, 1985, NATURAL INORGANIC CH MOUDADDINE L, 1997, THESIS U CADI AYAD F RODIER J, 1992, ANAL LEAU THAUVIN JP, 1966, MEMOIRES SERVICES GE WHITELEY M, 2001, ENVIRON MICROBIOL, V3, P43 ZOUHRI L, 2000, THESIS U LILLE 1 ZOUHRI L, 2001, CR ACAD SCI II A, V332, P1 ZOUHRI L, 2002, ANN SOC GEOLOGIQUE N, V9, P159 ZOUHRI L, 2002, HYDROLOG SCI J, V47, P969 ZOUHRI L, 2003, J ENV HYDROL, V11, P1 ZOUHRI L, 2004, HYDROLOG SCI J, V49, P387 NR 22 TC 0 J9 HYDROLOG SCI J BP 1137 EP 1149 PY 2005 PD DEC VL 50 IS 6 GA 992LT UT ISI:000233886100015 ER PT J AU Alderwish, A El-Eryani, M TI An approach for assessing the vulnerability of the water resources of Yemen to climate change SO CLIMATE RESEARCH LA English DT Article C1 Sanaa Univ, Earth & Environm Sci Dept, Sanaa, Yemen. Sanaa Univ, Dept Civil Engn, Sanaa, Yemen. RP Alderwish, A, Sanaa Univ, Earth & Environm Sci Dept, POB 13743, Sanaa, Yemen. AB This paper outlines the methodology followed in the study of climate change impact on water resources in Yemen and presents initial results on the vulnerability of the water resources system. The selected modeling strategy is used for the first time in climate change assessment studies and is briefly discussed, This strategy comprised 4 interacting models: a Rainfall-Runoff Model (RRM), an Irrigation Simulation Model (ISM), a Groundwater Simulation Model (GSM), and an Economic Policy Model (EPM). Adequate indication of the water system's sensitivity to climate change in arid and semiarid regions can only be achieved when appropriate temporal and spatial scales of the assessment are used. For instance, only hourly or daily time step models can capture climate impacts on floods of ephemeral wadis. The degree of accuracy required should also be determined by the scarcity/availability of the resources. CR *SCS, 1964, TECH PUBL USDA, V149 *SCS, 1972, NAT ENG HDB *TSHWC, 1993, ASS AV SURF WAT RES, V3 *TSHWC, 1993, WAT RES MAN TIH FIN, V10 ALDERWISH A, 1995, MODELING RIVER AQUIF, P4 ALDERWISH A, 1995, SOLUTIONS 1995 ALDERWISH AM, 1998, GEOLOGICAL SOC SPECI, V130, P165 ATKINS WS, 1984, FEASIBILITY STUDY WA, V2 FEENSTRA JF, 1996, HDB METHODS CLIMATE GOODMAN AS, 1984, PRINCIPLES WATER RES NEGENMAN AJH, 1995, WRAY34 GEN DIR HYDR REEDER J, 1980, WATER RESOUR RES, V16, P97 VANDERGUN J, 1991, WATER RESOURCE ASSES NR 13 TC 0 J9 CLIMATE RES BP 85 EP 89 PY 1999 PD AUG 27 VL 12 IS 2-3 GA V3096 UT ISI:000171723000005 ER PT J AU Tompkins, EL Adger, WN TI Does adaptive management of natural resources enhance resilience to climate change? SO ECOLOGY AND SOCIETY LA English DT Article C1 Univ E Anglia, Tyndall Ctr Climate Change Res, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. RP Tompkins, EL, Univ E Anglia, Tyndall Ctr Climate Change Res, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. AB Emerging insights from adaptive and community-based resource management suggest that building resilience into both human and ecological systems is an effective way to cope with environmental change characterized by future surprises or unknowable risks. We argue that these emerging insights have implications for policies and strategies for responding to climate change. We review perspectives on collective action for natural resource management to inform understanding of climate response capacity. We demonstrate the importance of social learning, specifically in relation to the acceptance of strategies that build social and ecological resilience. Societies and communities dependent on natural resources need to enhance their capacity to adapt to the impacts of future climate change, particularly when such impacts could lie outside their experienced coping range. This argument is illustrated by an example of present-day collective action for community-based coastal management in Trinidad and Tobago. The case demonstrates that community-based management enhances adaptive capacity in two ways: by building networks that are important for coping with extreme events and by retaining the resilience of the underpinning resources and ecological systems. 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Univ Almeria, Dept Biol Vegetal & Ecol, Almeria 04120, Spain. Univ Politecn Madrid, Escuela Tecn Super Ingn Agron, Dept Prod Vegetal Bot & Protect Vegetal, Madrid 28040, Spain. RP Sanz-Elorza, M, Gerencia Terr Catastro, Plaza Espejos 1, Bombay 40001, Maharashtra, India. AB This study examines the alien flora of a representative zone of the continental northeast region of the Iberian Peninsula, in the Huesca province. Its aims were to determine the biological and ecological factors responsible for the invasive behaviour of the alien species, along with factors related to the environment and land use that could increase the vulnerability of the different habitats towards invasion. Results were then compared with previous observations made in the coastal areas closest to this inland region. Relationships between the invasive nature and the biological and ecological characteristics of the species were evaluated by logistic analysis. General linear model analysis was used to correlate environmental factors with the capacity of the region's habitats to accept these invaders. Perhaps the most noticeable feature was the high number of alien plants growing as crop weeds in the continental study area. The factors found to be most related to the invasive behaviour of the alien species were biological type, route of introduction and the disturbance degree of the habitat. Human population density, average yearly rainfall and temperature, and to a lesser extent, land use were the environmental factors most significantly associated with the number of alien species present. Our findings indicate that the invasibility of continental areas of the NE Iberian Peninsula by alien plants is notably lower compared to the closest coastal zones, the degree of naturalisation. of alien species within the native flora also being lower. Differences between the coast and interior in terms of the origins and introduction routes of the alien plants were also evident. Environments showing the greatest capacity to accommodate alien plant species were coastal areas, where the land is mostly given over to urban use and there is a predominance of fluvial and riparian ecosystems. CR ALMEIDA JD, 1999, FLORA EXOTICA SUBESP, P1 ASCASO A, 1981, GEOGRAFIA ARAGON, V1, P185 ATKINSON IAE, 1993, TRENDS ECOL EVOL, V8, P447 BRAUNBLANQUET J, 1957, AN EST EXP AULA DEI, V5, P1 CASTRODIEZ P, 1998, PLANT ECOL, V139, P103 CASTROVIEJO S, 1986, FLORA IBERICA, V1 CHRISTODOULAKIS NS, 1992, ENVIRON EXP BOT, V32, P295 CLEMENT EJ, 1994, ALIEN PLANTS BRIT IS CONESA JA, 1998, INFORMACION TECNICA, V94, P177 CRONK QCB, 1995, PLANT INVADERS THREA, P1 DANTONIO CM, 1992, ANNU REV ECOL SYST, V23, P63 DOBSON AJ, 1990, INTRO GEN LINEAR MOD DRAKE JA, 1989, BIOL INVASIONS GLOBA EVERITT BS, 1992, MONOGRAPHS STAT APPL, V45 FERRANDEZ JV, 2002, ECOLOGIA, V16, P221 GOODWIN BJ, 1999, CONSERV BIOL, V13, P422 GROOVES RH, 1991, BIOGEOGRAPHY MEDITER HIGGINS SI, 1999, CONSERV BIOL, V13, P303 KUHN I, 2003, ECOLOGICAL THREATS M, P89 LODGE DM, 1993, TRENDS ECOL EVOL, V8, P133 LONDSDALE WM, 1999, ECOLOGY, V80, P1522 MACK RN, 1996, BIOL CONSERV, V78, P107 MITRAKOS K, 1980, ACTA OECOL OECOL PLA, V1, P245 MONTANI ML, 1988, INT J FOOD MICROBIOL, V6, P1 NATALI A, 1996, FLORE ANAL PLANTES I PANETTA FD, 1991, WEED RES, V31, P273 PENA A, 2000, ESTADISTICA MODELOS, V2 PYSEK P, 1995, PLANT INVASIONS GEN, P39 PYSEK P, 1997, ECOLOGY EVOLUTION CL, P405 PYSEK P, 1998, OIKOS, V82, P282 PYSEK P, 2002, PRESLIA, V74, P94 PYSEK P, 2003, FLORA, V198, P499 PYSEK P, 2003, PLANT INVASIONS ECOL, P113 PYSEK P, 2004, TAXON, V53, P131 RAUNKJAER O, 1934, LIFE FORMS PLANTS ST REJMANEK M, 1999, INVASIVE SPECIES BIO, P70 RICHARDSON DM, 2000, DIVERS DISTRIB, V6, P93 SANZELORZA M, 2001, THESIS U LLEIDA LLEI, P1 SANZELORZA M, 2003, ANN BOT-LONDON, V92, P273 SANZELORZA M, 2004, ATLAS PLANTAS ALOCTO, P1 SOBRINO E, 2001, FINGERPRINTS CLIMATE, P163 SOBRINO E, 2002, J VEG SCI, V13, P585 TOHARSKAGUZIK B, 2003, ECOLOGICAL THREATS M, P147 TUTIN TG, 1964, FLORA EUROPAEA, V1 VIEGI L, 2001, PLANT INVASIONS SPEC, P255 VILA M, 1999, ECOLOGIA MEDITERRANE, V25, P153 VILA M, 2001, BIOL CONSERV, V100, P397 VILA M, 2001, ECOLOGIA MEDITERRANE, V27, P55 VILA M, 2004, OIKOS, V105, P229 VILLAR L, 1997, ATLAS FLORA PIRINEO, V1, P1 VILLAR L, 2001, ATLAS FLORA PIRINEO, V2, P1 VITOUSEK PM, 1994, ECOLOGY, V75, P1861 WILLIAMSON M, 1996, BIOL INVASIONS WILLIAMSON M, 1998, PLANT INVASIONS ECOL, P57 ZAR JH, 1984, BIOSTATISTICALS ANAL NR 55 TC 0 J9 ACTA OECOL BP 114 EP 122 PY 2006 PD JAN-FEB VL 29 IS 1 GA 015IS UT ISI:000235545700014 ER PT J AU Aggarwal, PK Joshi, PK Ingram, JSI Gupta, RK TI Adapting food systems of the Indo-Gangetic plains to global environmental change: key information needs to improve policy formulation SO ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE & POLICY LA English DT Article C1 Indian Agr Res Inst, Div Environm Sci, New Delhi 110012, India. Int Food Policy Res Inst, Washington, DC 20036 USA. NERC, Ctr Ecol & Hydrol, Wallingford OX10 8BB, Oxon, England. CIMMYT, Rice Wheat Consortium Indoganget Plains, RWC, New Delhi 110012, India. RP Aggarwal, PK, Indian Agr Res Inst, Div Environm Sci, New Delhi 110012, India. AB The Indo-Gangetic plain (IGP; including regions of Pakistan, India, Nepal, and Bangladesh) is generally characterised by fertile soils, favourable climate and an abundant supply of water. Nevertheless, the challenge of increasing food production in the IGP in line with demand grows ever greater; any perturbation in agriculture will considerably affect the food systems of the region and increase the vulnerability of the resource-poor population. Increasing regional production is already complicated by increasing competition for land resources by non-agricultural sectors and by the deterioration of agri-environments and water resources. Global environmental change (GEC), especially changes in climate mean values and variability, will further complicate the agricultural situation and will therefore, have serious implications for food systems of the region. Strategies to reduce the vulnerability of the region's food systems to GEC need to be based on a combination of technical and policy options, and developed in recognition of the concurrent changes in socioeconomic stresses. Adaptation options need to be assessed with regard to their socioeconomic and environmental efficacy, but a greater understanding of the interactions of food systems with GEC is needed to be able to do this with confidence. This paper discusses information needs relating to resource management and policy support to guide the development of research planning for increasing the robustness of IGP food systems to GEC. Further information is needed to develop a range of adaptation strategies including augmenting production and its sustainability, increasing income from agricultural enterprises, diversification from rice-wheat systems, improving land use and natural resource management, and instigating more flexible policies and institutions. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 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Queens Univ Belfast, Sch Geosci, Belfast BT7 1NN, Antrim, North Ireland. English Heritage, Ancient Monuments Lab, London W1X 1AB, England. Natl Univ Ireland Univ Coll Cork, Dept Geog, Coastal Resources Ctr, Cork, Ireland. Univ Bristol, Dept Geog, Bristol BS8 1SS, Avon, England. RP Jennings, S, Univ N London, Sch Biol & Appl Sci, 166-220 Holloway Rd, London N7 8DB, England. AB The Holocene development of the coastal system at Porlock has been driven by variations in the rate of relative sea-level rise providing a long-term control on longshore sediment supply, which in turn has controlled gravel barrier beach dynamics. Relative sea-level rise rates of between approximately 8.5 mm yr(-1) and 2.0 mm yr(-1) define a critical range which allowed gravel barrier consolidation and back-barrier alder carr formation between c. 8500 to 6000 cal. yrs BP. A marked deceleration in rise rates around 7500 to 7000 cal. yrs BP caused a reduction in coarse elastic sediment supply, forcing the barrier into the breakdown domain, enhancing its vulnerability to storm events. Back-barrier sedimentation since c. 6000 cal, yrs BP has been exclusively inorganic, and probably included an important catchment-derived component resulting from anthropogenic disturbances. 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Arizona State Univ, Sch Life Sci, Tempe, AZ 85287 USA. Arizona State Univ, Global Inst Sustainabil, Tempe, AZ 85287 USA. RP Jiang, GM, Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Bot, Lab Quatitat Vegetat Ecol, Beijing 100864, Peoples R China. CR BRADSHAW A, 2000, LANDSCAPE URBAN PLAN, V51, P89 BROGAARD S, 2002, AMBIO, V31, P219 CHAGN ZF, 1997, J DESERT RES, V17, P442 KATES RW, 2001, SCIENCE, V292, P641 LI B, 1997, AGR SCI SINICA, V30, P1 LIU MZ, 2003, ACTA ECOL SIN, V23, P251 WU J, 1992, GRASSLANDS GRASSLAND, P67 WU JG, 2002, LANDSCAPE ECOL, V17, P355 WU JG, 2006, LANDSCAPE ECOL, V21, P1 YANG DZ, 1998, CHIN J APPL METEOR, V9, P352 YE DZ, 2000, ACTA GEOGRAPHICA SIN, V55, P513 YOSHINO M, 2001, INTEGRATED LAND MANA ZHU JZ, 2004, CHIN J NAT RES, V19, P58 NR 13 TC 0 J9 AMBIO BP 269 EP 270 PY 2006 PD AUG VL 35 IS 5 GA 082UE UT ISI:000240411900010 ER PT J AU Reilly, JM Asadoorian, MO TI Mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions from land use: creating incentives within greenhouse gas emissions trading systems SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 MIT, Joint Program Sci & Policy Global Change, Cambridge, MA 02139 USA. RP Reilly, JM, MIT, Joint Program Sci & Policy Global Change, Cambridge, MA 02139 USA. AB Terrestrial carbon sinks and sources were introduced into climate change mitigation related policy relatively late in the design of the architecture of those policies. Much literature addresses how terrestrial sources and sinks differ from emissions from fossil fuel combustion and, hence, is a possible justification for differential treatment of them in policy design. Late introduction in climate policy discussions and perceived differences appear to have resulted in very different policy approaches for sinks versus fossil emission sources. The attempt to differentiate has generated complexity in policy design and likely inefficiency in the operation of these policies. We review these issues and find that the characteristics claimed to apply to sinks apply as well to fossil sources, and differences that do exist are often more a matter of degree than of kind. Because cap-and-trade has gained momentum as the instrument of choice to control fossil emissions, we use as a starting point, how such a cap-and-trade system could be altered to include terrestrial carbon sinks and sources. CR *EC, 2005, EU EM TRAD OP SCHEM *KYOT RAT ADV GROU, 2003, REP KYOT RAT ADV GRO *PEW CTR, 2005, EUR UN EM TRAD SCHEM *POINT CARB, 2005, CARB MARK EUR *UNFCCC, 1997, KYOT PROT *UNFCCC, 2000, METH ISS LAND US LAN *UNFCCC, 2005, KYOT PROT STAT RAT *US DOE, 2002, FED REGISTER, V67, P30370 *WHIT HOUS, 2002, US CLIM STRAT NEW AP BABIKER M, 2004, ENERGY J, V25, P33 BABIKER MH, 2002, ENVIRON SCI POLICY, V5, P195 BABIKER MH, 2003, ENVIRON MODEL ASSESS, V8, P187 BETZ R, 2004, ENERGY ENV, V15, P375 BIRDSEY R, 2000, LAND USE LAND USE CH, P125 BOHRINGER C, 2001, CLIMATE POLITICS KYO ELLERMAN AD, 2000, MARKETS CLEAN AIR US ELLERMAN AD, 2001, REV ENERGIE, V524, P105 FELZER B, 2004, TELLUS B, V56, P230 FELZER B, 2005, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V73, P345 HERZOG H, 2003, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V59, P293 HOUGHTON JT, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 LEWANDROWSKI JK, 2004, EC SEQUESTERING CARB, P1 MANNE A, 2001, US REJECTION KYOTO P, P1 MARLAND G, 2001, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V51, P101 MCCARL BA, 2005, COMP VALUE BIOL CARB MCCARL BA, 2006, INTEGRATED ASSESSMEN MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 METZ B, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 PALTSEV S, 2003, EMISSIONS TRADING RE PALTSEV S, 2006, IN PRESS INTEGRATED REILLY JM, 2003, COLORADO J INT ENV L, P117 REINER DM, 2001, ENVIRONMENT, V43, P36 SARMIENTO JL, 2002, PHYS TODAY, V55, P30 SCHLAMADINGER B, 1999, TELLUS B, V51, P314 WATSON RT, 2000, LAND USE LAND USE CH WIEBE K, 1996, AER744 USDA YANG T, 2005, 113 MIT ZHUANG Q, 2003, 104 MIT NR 38 TC 0 J9 CLIMATIC CHANGE BP 173 EP 197 PY 2007 PD JAN VL 80 IS 1-2 GA 126ZW UT ISI:000243555300011 ER PT J AU Pruszak, Z Zawadzka, E TI Vulnerability of Poland's coast to sea-level rise SO COASTAL ENGINEERING JOURNAL LA English DT Article C1 Polish Acad Sci, Inst Hydroengn, PL-80953 Gdansk, Poland. Maritime Inst, Dept Maritime Hydrotech, PL-80307 Gdansk, Poland. Univ Gdansk, Dept Geomorphol & Quaternary Geol, PL-80957 Gdansk, Poland. RP Pruszak, Z, Polish Acad Sci, Inst Hydroengn, Koscierska 7, PL-80953 Gdansk, Poland. AB Over the last decades, the Polish coast, about 500 km long and predominantly featured by sandy, low-lying beaches, has been exposed to various threats resulting from intensified climate change and Accelerated Sea-Level Rise (ASLR). This has manifested itself in the growing intensity of shoreline, dune and cliff erosion and by the increasing. necessity of their protection. The current study is both a summary and an extension of the existing Polish studies and analyses on the present and predicted influence of ASLR on the coast. First, the Polish coast was divided into three basic area types (AREA I, II, III) according to their geographic and socio-economic background. Then, two different scenarios of accelerated sea-level rise (ASLR1 - 30 cm/100 yrs and ASLR2 - 100 cm/100 yrs) were assumed. After that threats of land loss and the risk of its temporary or partial inundation was analyzed in connection with the assessment of the material and social costs and losses. These analyses were made within the framework of two adaptation scenarios, i.e. retreat (do nothing) and full protection. The performed analyses have shown that the greatest threat of partial or full land loss and the associated material and social costs are expected to occur in two regions of the Polish coast. One of them is situated in the eastern sector of the Polish coast and covers the agglomeration of Gdansk and the Zulawy polders. The other is located in the west and comprises low-lying areas around the Szczecin Lagoon and the vicinity of the Odra river mouth. These areas both require intensive care and protection efforts. CR *IPCC CZMS, 1992, GLOB CLIM CHANG RIS BLOMGREN S, 1999, 1027 LUND U SWEDEN, P83 MAJEWSKI A, 1983, MONOGRAPH STORM SURG MAJEWSKI A, 1990, WYD GEOLOGICZNE MIMURA N, 2000, DATA BOOK SEA LEVEL, P128 NICHOLLS RJ, 1998, CLIMATE RES, V11, P5 ORVIKU K, 2003, J COASTAL RES, V19, P364 PRUSZAK Z, 2000, COAST ENG J, V42, P31 PRUSZAK Z, 2000, P SURVAS EXP WORKSH, P69 ROTNICKI K, 1995, J COASTAL RES, P1111 VELINGA P, 1989, CLIMATE CHANGE, V15, P175 ZAWADZKA E, 1992, P ICC KIEL 92 KIEL, P595 ZAWADZKA E, 1994, ICCE 94 KOB, P568 ZAWADZKA E, 1996, P 25 INT C COAST ENG, P2955 ZAWADZKA E, 1999, GTN, P147 ZEIDLER R, 1992, CASE STUDY REPORT, P165 ZEIDLER RB, 1997, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V36, P151 NR 17 TC 0 J9 COAST ENG J BP 131 EP 155 PY 2005 PD JUN-SEP VL 47 IS 2-3 GA 970GP UT ISI:000232293600004 ER PT J AU Parks, BC Roberts, JT TI Globalization, vulnerability to climate change, and perceived injustice SO SOCIETY & NATURAL RESOURCES LA English DT Article C1 Millennium Challenge Corp, Washington, DC 20005 USA. Coll William & Mary, Dept Sociol, Williamsburg, VA USA. RP Parks, BC, Millennium Challenge Corp, 875 15th St, Washington, DC 20005 USA. AB As the earth's climate begins to shift into a hotter and less predictable period, there is a basic injustice in who will suffer worst and first. Nations facing rising oceans and drought are those least responsible for the problem, and they have the least resources to cope with them. To evaluate claims of environmental injustice, we examine three cases where the first signs of climate change are being felt worst and first: murderous flooding from Hurricane Mitch in Honduras, rising sea levels swamping entire Pacific Island atoll nations, and devastation from flooding among squatter settlements in Mozambique. In each case these nations are suffering not only because of bad geography or management. Rather, because of their colonial past and current positions in the world economy, they are brutally vulnerable to forces outside their control. We conclude by offering an explanation for generalized mistrust among Southern nations vis-a-vis Northern nations and the Kyoto treaty. CR 2004, ISLAND NATION SEEKS *CHRIST AID, HOND BACKGR INF *EC INT UN, 2004, COUNTR PROF HOND *EC INT UN, 2004, COUNTR PROF MOZ *ECLAC, 1999, EV DAN HUR MITCH 199 *FAO, 1999, STAT FOOD INS WORLD *INT FUND AGR DEV, 2001, RUR POV REP 2001 CHA *IPCC, 2001, CLIM CHANG 2001 3 AS *UN, 2003, COMM DEV POL REP 5 S *UNDP, 2002, GROW VULN SMALL ISL *UNDP, 2004, HUM DEV REP 2004 *WHO, 2004, CHIPS COUNTR HLTH IN *WORLD BANK, 2004, DOING BUS 2004 *WORLD MET ORG, 2001, STAT STAT GLOB CLIM ACEMOGLU D, 2001, AM ECON REV, V91, P1369 ADGER WN, 2001, J INT DEV, V13, P921 ALBIN C, 2003, REV INT STUD, V29, P365 ATHANASIOU T, 2002, DEAD HEAT GLOBAL JUS BARKHAM P, 2002, GUARDIN 0216 BARRETT S, 2003, ENV STATECRAFT STRAT BAUMERT KA, 2002, BUILDING KYOTO PROTO BIGGS T, 1999, 107 RPED BIGIO AM, 2002, FUT DIS RISK BUILD S BLAIR T, 2000, GREEN ALL CBI C ENV BOWEN ML, 2000, STATE PEASANTRY RURA BRIGUGLIO L, 1995, WORLD DEV, V23, P1615 CHRISTIE F, 2001, MOZAMBIQUE GREAT FLO CRAMER C, 1998, J MOD AFR STUD, V36, P101 CRAMER C, 1999, WORLD DEV, V27, P1247 DESOMBRE ER, 1996, I ENV AID PITFALLS P DESOMBRE ER, 2000, DOMESTIC SOURCES INT KAUFMANN D, 2004, WORLD BANK ECON REV, V18, P253 KAY C, 2002, THIRD WORLD Q, V23, P1073 KRASNER SD, 1985, STRUCTURAL CONFLICT LOPEZCLAROS A, 2004, GLOBAL COMPETITIVENE MARTIN B, 2001, AUSTFR J EMERG MANAG, V16, P25 MATHUR A, 2004, ADAPTATION MOSAIC SA MORRIS SS, 2002, WORLD DEV, V30, P49 MULLER B, 2001, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V48, P273 NAJAM A, 1995, INT ENVIRON AFFAIR, V7, P249 NAJAM A, 2004, GLOBAL ENV I LAW POL, P225 NAJAM A, 2004, GLOBAL ENV POLIT, V4, P128 NEUMAYER E, 2000, ECOL ECON, V33, P185 NICHOLLS RJ, 1999, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V9, P69 OLAUGHLIN B, 1996, J PEASANT STUD, V23, P4 PAIGE JM, 1997, COFFEE POEWR REVOLUT PELLING M, 2002, ENV HAZARDS, V3, P49 RIBOT JC, 1996, CLIMATE VARIABILITY, V1, P1 RINGIUS L, 2002, INT ENV AGREEMENTS P, V2, P1 ROBERTS JT, CLIMATE INJUSTICE GL ROBERTS JT, 2003, TROUBLE PARADISE GLO RODGERS M, 1999, DEBT DISASTER WHAT H ROSSI C, 1997, FOLHA SAO PAULO 1010, A15 SELL S, 1996, GLOB GOV, V2, P97 SIDAWAY JD, 1995, ENVIRON PLANN A, V27, P1463 STASAVAGE D, 1999, COMMONW COMP POLIT, V37, P65 STONICH S, 1993, I AM DESTROYING LAND TANNER C, 2002, 26 FAO TARP F, 2002, FACING DEV CHALLENGE VICTOR D, 2001, COLLAPSE KYOTO PROTO WADE RH, 2004, WORLD DEV, V32, P567 WISNER B, 2001, DISASTERS, V25, P251 YOUNG OR, 1999, GLOBAL ETHICS ENV, P247 NR 63 TC 0 J9 SOC NATUR RESOUR BP 337 EP 355 PY 2006 PD APR VL 19 IS 4 GA 011NZ UT ISI:000235276500004 ER PT J AU Dennis, RA Colfer, CP TI Impacts of land use and fire on the loss and degradation of lowland forest in 1983-2000 in East Kutai District, East Kalimantan, Indonesia SO SINGAPORE JOURNAL OF TROPICAL GEOGRAPHY LA English DT Article C1 Ecosense Consultants, Balikpapan, E Kalimantan, Indonesia. Ctr Int Forestry Res, CIFOR, Bogor Barat, Indonesia. RP Dennis, RA, Ecosense Consultants, Balikpapan, E Kalimantan, Indonesia. AB Deforestation and forest degradation are proceeding rapidly in the lowland forests of Indonesian Borneo. Time series analysis of satellite imagery provides an ideal means of quantifying landscape change and identifying the pathways which lead to the changes. This study investigates the forest and land cover changes by classifying Landsat MSS (Multispectral Scanner), TM (Thematic Mapper) and ETM+ (Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus) images over three time periods (1983-90, 1990-98, and 1998-2000), creating land cover maps for each year and change trajectories for each year-pair. The study area chosen covers an area of 2160 km(2) of undulating topography and alluvial plains in the East Kutai District of East Kalimantan Province, which in the 1980s was covered mostly with lowland dipterocarp forest; today the landscape is a patchwork dominated by oil palm and timber plantations and degraded forest. We relate land cover change data to land use allocation and to fire impacts based on fire hotspot distribution and fire damage information. The multidate land cover change trajectories provide an insight into the forest loss and degradation pathways over the 17-year period spanning the first entry of commercial logging concessionaires, followed by a government-sponsored transmigration scheme, government-licensed timber and oil palm plantations and, finally, the devastating fires of 1998. The results show a mean deforestation rate of 42 km(2) or 6 per cent per year for 1983-2000, rising to 10 per cent per year for 1990-98; by 2000, 70 per cent of forest initially damaged by fire and drought during the 1982-83 El Nino event was classified as non-forest. Although our study area is perhaps a worst-case scenario in terms of land use planning outcomes, the lessons from this research are directly applicable to scenario prediction for informed forest and land use planning and monitoring. CR *ERDAS, 2002, ERDAS FIELD GUID *FWI GFW, 2002, STAT FOR IND *PROV FOR DEP E KA, 1999, FOR STAT *WORLD BANK, 2001, IND ENV NAT RES MAN *WWF, 2005, BORN TREAS ISL RISK ACHARD F, 2002, SCIENCE, V297, P999 APPLEGATE GBA, 2001, UNDERLYING CAUSES IM BARBER CV, 2000, TRIAL FIRE FOREST FI COCHRANE MA, 1999, SCIENCE, V284, P1834 COLFER C, 2000, UNPUB UNDERLYING CAU COLFER CJ, 2001, BORNEO RES B, V32, P24 COLFER CJP, 1993, L FAO COMM FOR CONGALTON RG, 1999, ASSESSING ACCURACY R COPPIN PR, 1996, REMOTE SENSING REV, V13, P207 CURRAN LM, 2004, SCIENCE, V303, P1000 DENNIS RA, 1999, REV FIRE PROJECTS IN DENNIS RA, 2000, BORNEO RES B, V31, P123 DENNIS RA, 2000, UNPUB TROPICAL FORES DENNIS RA, 2005, HUM ECOL, V33, P465 FULLER DO, 2004, CONSERV BIOL, V18, P249 GELLERT PK, 1998, INDONESIA, V65, P63 HOFFMANN AA, 1999, UNPUB FIRE DAMAGE E HOLDSWORTH AR, 1997, ECOL APPL, V7, P713 KASPERSON JX, 1995, REGIONS RISK, V1, P1 KAUFFMAN JB, 1988, OIKOS, V53, P167 KINNAIRD MF, 2003, CONSERV BIOL, V17, P245 LEGG CA, 1999, AMBIO, V28, P479 LEIGHTON M, 1986, TROPICAL RAIN FOREST, P75 LILLESAND TM, 1994, REMOTE SENSING IMAGE LINKIE M, 2004, BIODIVERS CONSERV, V13, P1809 LUNETTA RS, 1999, REMOTE SENSING CHANG MACKIE C, 1984, BORNEO RES B, V16, P63 MACLEOD RD, 1998, PHOTOGRAMM ENG REM S, V64, P207 MALINGREAU JP, 1985, AMBIO, V14, P314 MASSING A, 1980, BASELINE SURVEY KECA MERTENS B, 2000, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V90, P467 NEPSTAD DC, 1999, NATURE, V398, P505 SAKUNTALADEWI N, 1989, UNPUB SOCIOECONOMIC SCHINDELE W, 1989, UNPUB INVESTIGATION SERRA P, 2003, INT J REMOTE SENS, V24, P3311 SIEGERT F, 2000, REMOTE SENS ENVIRON, V72, P64 SIEGERT F, 2001, INT AS WETL S 2001 P SIEGERT F, 2001, INT PEAT J, V11, P51 SIEGERT F, 2001, NATURE, V414, P437 SINGH A, 1989, INT J REMOTE SENS, V10, P989 STOLLE F, 2003, FOREST ECOL MANAG, V179, P277 SUNDERLIN WD, 1996, 9 CIFOR NR 47 TC 0 J9 SING J TROP GEOGR BP 30 EP 48 PY 2006 PD MAR VL 27 IS 1 GA 022AL UT ISI:000236026900004 ER PT J AU Beller-Simms, N TI Planning for El Nino: The stages of natural hazard mitigation and preparation SO PROFESSIONAL GEOGRAPHER LA English DT Article C1 NOAA, Human Dimens Global Change Res Program, Off Global Programs, Silver Spring, MD 20910 USA. RP Beller-Simms, N, NOAA, Human Dimens Global Change Res Program, Off Global Programs, Silver Spring, MD 20910 USA. AB This study examines mitigation and preparation activities selected by four county and state governments in anticipation of the 1997-1998 El Nino. It expands the knowledge of how state and local governments plan short-term projects and mitigate with longer-term activities in anticipation of a natural hazard. It also provides a preliminary understanding of divergent responses and plans under similar disaster warnings. It outlines stages that governments follow in determining their natural hazard mitigation and preparedness activities. This model should provide hazard planners, particularly those planning for slower onset hazards, with insights into their own local circumstances, allowing them to choose appropriate strategies. CR *FEMA, 1995, NAT MIT STRAT PARTN *INT FED RED CROSS, 2002, WORLD DIS REP 2002 F ANDRADE ER, 1988, J CLIMATOL, V8, P403 BLAIKIE PM, 1994, RISK NATURAL HAZARDS, V1, P1 BURBY RJ, 1998, COOPERATING NATURE C CHANGNON SA, 1999, NAT HAZARDS, V18, P287 CUTTER SL, 1996, PROG HUM GEOG, V20, P529 ELY LL, 1993, SCIENCE, V262, P410 ELY LL, 1994, J CLIMATE, V7, P977 GLANTZ MH, 2001, ONCE BURNED TWICE SH GODSCHALK DR, 1999, NATURAL HAZARD MITIG HOTZ RL, 1997, LOS ANGELES TIM 1027, A1 KAHYA E, 1994, J CLIMATE, V7, P965 LEMOS MC, 2002, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V55, P479 MCPHADEN MJ, 1999, SCIENCE, V283, P950 MILETI DS, 1999, DISASTERS DESIGN REA OCONNOR RE, 1999, J AM WATER RESOUR AS, V35, P1411 PLATT RH, 1999, DISASTERS DEMOCRACY ROPELEWSKI CF, 1986, MON WEATHER REV, V114, P2352 STERN PC, 1999, MAKING CLIMATE FOREC TOBIN GA, 1997, NATURAL HAZARDS NR 21 TC 0 J9 PROF GEOGR BP 213 EP 222 PY 2004 PD MAY VL 56 IS 2 GA 819HN UT ISI:000221306000006 ER PT J AU Leemans, R Eickhout, B Strengers, B Bouwman, L Schaeffer, M TI The consequences of uncertainties in land use, climate and vegetation responses on the terrestrial carbon SO SCIENCE IN CHINA SERIES C-LIFE SCIENCES LA English DT Article C1 Natl Inst Publ Hlth & Environm, NL-3720 BA Bilthoven, Netherlands. RP Leemans, R, Natl Inst Publ Hlth & Environm, POB 1, NL-3720 BA Bilthoven, Netherlands. AB The IPCC SRES narratives were implemented in IMAGE 22 to evaluate the future condition of the climate system (including the biosphere). A series of scenario experiments was used to assess possible ranges in emissions and concentrations of greenhouse gases, climate change and impacts. These experiments focussed on the role of the terrestrial carbon cycle. The experiments show that the SRES narratives dominate human emissions and not natural processes. In contrary, atmospheric CO2 concentration strongly differs between the experiments. Atmospheric CO2 concentrations range for A1B from 714 to 1009 ppmv CO2 in 2100. The spread of this range is comparable with the full SIRES range as implemented in IMAGE 2.2 (515-895 mumol/mol CO2)The most important negative and positive feedback processes in IMAGE 2.2 on the build-up of CO2 concentrations are CO2 fertilisation and soil respiration respectively. Indirect effects of these processes further change land-use patterns, deforestation rates and alter the natural C fluxes. The cumulative effects of these changes have a pronounced influence on the final CO2 concentrations. Our scenario experiments highlight the importance of a proper parameterisation of feedback processes, C-cycle and land use in determining the future states of the climate system. CR *IMAGE TEAM, 2001, IMAGE 2 2 IMPL SRES ALCAMO J, 1998, GLOBAL CHANGE SCENAR BACHER A, 1998, CLIM DYNAM, V14, P431 BOER GJ, 2000, CLIM DYNAM, V16, P405 COX PM, 2000, NATURE, V408, P180 HAYWOOD JM, 1997, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V24, P1335 HIRST AC, 1996, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V23, P3361 HOUGHTON JT, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 HOUGHTON RA, 1999, SCIENCE, V285, P574 JOOS F, 2001, GLOBAL BIOGEOCHEM CY, V15, P891 KEELING CD, 2001, TRENDS COMPENDIUM DA LEEMANS R, 1994, WATER AIR SOIL POLL, V76, P133 MARLAND G, 2000, TRENDS COMPENDIUM DA MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 MITCHELL JFB, 1995, NATURE, V376, P501 NAKICENOVIC N, 2000, SPECIAL REPORT EMISS PRENTICE IC, 1992, J BIOGEOGR, V19, P117 SCHIMEL DS, 1997, ECOL MONOGR, V67, P251 SCHLESINGER ME, 2000, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V65, P167 VANMINNEN JG, 2000, GLOB CHANGE BIOL, V6, P595 NR 20 TC 2 J9 SCI CHINA SER C BP 126 EP + PY 2002 PD OCT VL 45 GA 633CQ UT ISI:000180262000015 ER PT J AU Barnett, J Webber, M Wang, M Finlayson, B Dickinson, D TI Ten key questions about the management of water in the Yellow River basin SO ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article C1 Univ Melbourne, Sch Anthropol Geog & Environm Studies, Parkville, Vic 3052, Australia. RP Barnett, J, Univ Melbourne, Sch Anthropol Geog & Environm Studies, Parkville, Vic 3052, Australia. AB Water is scarce in many regions of the world, clean water is difficult to find in most developing countries, there are conflicts between irrigation needs and urban demands, and there is wide debate over appropriate means of resolving these problems. Similarly, in China, there is limited understanding of the ways in which people, groups, and institutions contribute to, are affected by, and respond to changes in water quantity and quality. We use the example of the Yellow River basin to argue that these social, managerial, and policy dimensions of the present water problems are significant and overshadow the physical ones. Despite this, they receive relatively little attention in the research agenda, particularly of the lead agencies in the management of the Yellow River basin. To this end, we ask ten research questions needed to address the policy needs of water management in the basin, split into two groups of five. The first five relate to the importance of water in this basin and the changes that have affected water problems and will continue to do so. The second five questions represent an attempt to explore possible solutions to these problems. CR *SEPA, 2002, REP STAT ENV CHIN 20 *UNDP, 2002, CHIN HUM DEV REP 200 *WILPF, 2003, PEACE FREEDOM, V63, P14 *WORLD BANK, 2002, CHIN COUNTR WAT RES ADGER WN, 1999, WORLD DEV, V27, P249 AGGARWAL PK, 2004, ENVIRON SCI POLICY, V7, P487 BERKES F, 1998, LINKING SOCIAL ECOLO, P414 BEZLOVA A, 2004, INTERPRESS SERV 0610 CAI XM, 2004, WATER RESOUR RES, V40 CASSAR A, 2004, THESIS U MELBOURNE M CHEN Y, 1997, FORECAST URBAN WATER COUGHLAN MJ, 1985, NATURAL DISASTERS AU, P127 CUTTER SL, 1996, PROG HUM GEOG, V20, P529 DAS RJ, 1999, J CONTEMP ASIA, V29, P167 DINAR A, 1997, 1779 WORLD BANK DMONTE D, 2004, WOMENS FEATURE 0726 DOVERS S, 1999, ENV JUSTICE MARKET M, P110 DOVERS SR, 1995, AUSTR J ENV MANAGEME, V2, P142 ECONOMY E, 2004, RIVER RUNS BLACK ENV EVANS EM, 2003, AGR SYST, V77, P1 FALK MH, 2001, INT J HYPERTHER, P1 FIORINO D, 1995, MAKING ENV POLICY FOLKE C, 1998, 2 IHDP FU GB, 2004, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V65, P149 GUNDERSON LH, 1995, BARRIERS BRIDGES REN, V1, P1 HANDMER JW, 1996, IND ENV CRISIS Q, V9, P482 HEILIG G, 1999, CAN CHINA FEED ITSEL HOLMES MGR, 2005, ENVIRON MODELL SOFTW, V20, P197 JUN M, 2004, CHINAS WATER CRISIS KANG S, 2002, REGIONAL WATER SOIL, P105 KEYANTASH J, 2002, B AM METEOROL SOC, V83, P1167 LAL M, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, P533 LI S, 1993, SEDIMENT GEOL, V85, P285 LIEBERTHAL KG, 1992, BUREAUCRACY POLITICS, P1 LIU C, 2002, MITIGATION ADAPTATIO, V7, P203 LIU CM, 2004, HYDROL PROCESS, V18, P2197 LIU DF, 2004, COMPUT OPER RES, V31, P985 LIU JU, 2003, PHYS CHEM EARTH, V28, P209 LOHMAR B, 2003, CHINAS AGR WATER POL MANZUNGU E, 2002, PHYS CHEM EARTH, V27, P927 MATTHEWS OP, 2004, WATER RESOUR RES, V40 MCMAHON TA, 2003, FRESHWATER BIOL, V48, P1147 MEI C, 2001, GEOGR J, V167 MULDAVIN JSS, 2002, ECON GEOGR, V76, P244 MULWAFU W, 2003, PHYS CHEM EARTH, V28, P787 NYBERG A, 1999, ACCELERATING CHINAS OSTROM E, 2001, IHDP UPDATE, V3, P1 PANNELL DJ, 2006, AGR WATER MANAGE, V80, P41 QADIR M, 2003, AGR WATER MANAGE, V62, P165 ROSENZWEIG C, 2004, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V14, P345 SALETH R, 1999, 2045 WORLD BANK SHIVA V, 2002, WATER WARS PRIVATIZA SHU G, 2001, J ENV PLANNING MANAG, V44, P354 SMIT B, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, P877 TIAN WM, 1999, AGRIBUSINESS, V15, P393 TORRAS M, 1998, ECOL ECON, V25, P147 TSUR Y, 1995, 1460 WORLD BANK VARIS O, 2001, GEOMORPHOLOGY, V41, P93 VERMEER EB, 1998, CHINA Q, V156, P952 WANG XJ, 2004, WATER INT, V29, P282 WANG Y, 2003, CHINA ENV SERIES, V6, P94 YANG DW, 2004, WATER RESOUR RES, V40 YANG H, 2003, AGR WATER MANAGE, V61, P143 ZHANG H, 1999, IRRIGATION SCI, V19, P37 ZHEN L, 2002, INT J WATER RESOUR D, V18, P581 NR 65 TC 0 J9 ENVIRON MANAGE BP 179 EP 188 PY 2006 PD AUG VL 38 IS 2 GA 055LX UT ISI:000238453300002 ER PT J AU Cutter, SL Boruff, BJ Shirley, WL TI Social vulnerability to environmental hazards SO SOCIAL SCIENCE QUARTERLY LA English DT Article C1 Univ S Carolina, Dept Geog, Columbia, SC 29208 USA. RP Cutter, SL, Univ S Carolina, Dept Geog, Columbia, SC 29208 USA. AB Objective. County-level socioeconomic and demographic data were used to construct an index of social vulnerability to environmental hazards, called the Social Vulnerability Index (SoVI) for the United States based on 1990 data. Methods. Using a factor analytic approach, 42 variables were reduced to 11 independent factors that accounted for about 76 percent of the variance. These factors were placed in an additive model to compute a summary score-the Social Vulnerability Index. Results. There are some distinct spatial patterns in the SoVI, with the most vulnerable counties clustered in metropolitan counties in the east, south Texas, and the Mississippi Delta region. Conclusion. Those factors that contribute to the overall score often are different for each county, underscoring the interactive nature of social vulnerability-some components increase vulnerability; others moderate the effects. 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Univ Colorado, Cooperat Inst Res Environm Sci, Ctr Sci & Technol Policy Res, Boulder, CO USA. RP Moser, SC, Natl Ctr Atmospher Changes, ISSE, Boulder, CO USA. 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1991, ACCEPTABLE EVIDENCE, P9 KASPERSON RE, 2001, GLOBAL ENV RISK, P247 KEMPTON W, 1993, ANNU REV ENERG ENV, V18, P217 KEMPTON W, 1997, ENVIRONMENT, V39, P12 KENNEDY D, 2004, SCIENCE 0611, P1565 KING DA, 2004, SCIENCE 0109, P176 KRIMSKY S, 1988, ENV HAZARD COMMUNCAT LEISEROWITZ A, 2003, AM OPINIONS GLOBAL W LEVENTHAL H, 1983, HEALTH EDUC QUART, V10, P3 LEVY DL, 2003, J MANAGE STUD, V40, P803 LIFTON RJ, 1967, DEATH LIFE SURVIVORS LYNN JR, 1974, JOURNALISM QUART, V51, P622 MACY J, 1998, COMING BACK LIFE PRA, P26 MAZUR A, 1993, SOC STUD SCI, V23, P681 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 MCCOMAS K, 1999, COMMUN RES, V26, P51 MCCRIGHT AM, 2000, SOC PROBL, V47, P499 MCKENZIEMOHR D, 2000, AM PSYCHOL, V55, P531 MEADOWS D, 1996, GLOBAL CITIZEN MELUCCI A, 1988, INT SOCIAL MOVEMENT, V1, P329 METZ B, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 MICHELL R, IN PRESS GLOBAL ENV MILLER CE, 2001, CHANGING ATMOSPHERE MILNE S, 2000, J APPL SOC PSYCHOL, V30, P106 MOORE DW, 1995, GALLUP POLL MONTHLY, V355, P17 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SHELDON KM, 2002, PSYCHOL SUSTAINABLE, P37 SILVER CS, 1990, 1 EARTH 1 FUTURE OUR SLOVIC P, 1993, RISK ANAL, V13, P675 SMITH HJ, 2003, SCIENCE, V14, P1171 SOCOLOW R, 2004, ENVIRONMENT DEC, P8 SPETH JG, 2004, RED SKY MORNING AM C STAMM KR, 2000, PUBLIC UNDERST SCI, V9, P219 STERMAN JD, 2002, SYSTEM DYNAMICS REV, V18 TAYLOR PJ, 1992, GEOFORUM, V23, P405 TICKELL C, 2002, SCIENCE 0802, P737 TRENBERTH KE, 2001, ENVIRONMENT MAY, P8 TRUMBO C, 1996, PUBLIC UNDERST SCI, V5, P269 UNGAR S, 1995, SOC NATUR RESOUR, V8, P443 UNGAR S, 2000, PUBLIC UNDERST SCI, V9, P297 VAUGHAN E, 1995, RISK ANAL, V15, P169 WILBANKS TJ, 2003, ENVIRONMENT JUN, P28 WILSON K, 2004, TRUTHOUT NR 115 TC 0 J9 ENVIRONMENT BP 32 EP 46 PY 2004 PD DEC VL 46 IS 10 GA 891RY UT ISI:000226599900004 ER PT J AU Schoeneich, P Busset-Henchoz, MC Bridel, L Putallaz, SD Herold-Revaz, A Ledergerber, R TI Risk assessment by the inhabitants: Various perceptions and psychological adaptions SO ECLOGAE GEOLOGICAE HELVETIAE LA French DT Article C1 Inst Geog, CH-1015 Lausanne, Switzerland. Inst Rech Interdisciplinaires, CH-1015 Lausanne, Switzerland. RP Schoeneich, P, Inst Geog, BFSH 2, CH-1015 Lausanne, Switzerland. AB Risk is a subjective notion and its perception shows a great variability from one person to another, but also depending on the type of hazard to be considered. Various factors influencing individual perception and attitudes of persons exposed to natural hazards are analysed. Risk minimisation attitudes are well explained by the efforts for reducing the cognitive dissonance, providing a certain psychological welfare to persons at risk. Social representations and collective attitudes are built in several phases, and are influenced by cultural and social factors. These human factors have important consequences on the risk management: by inducing lags between the perception of the population and the acceptability thresholds fixed for administrative procedures. CR *BWW BUWAL BRP, 1997, EMPF BER HOCHW RAUMW BURTON I, 1978, ENV HAZARD, V1, P1 BUSSET MC, 1996, GARMISCHPARTENKIRCHE, V4, P255 DECROP G, 1995, EXPERTISE SCI RISQUE FESTINGER L, 1962, THEORY COGNITIVE DIS HEROLDREVAZ A, IN PRESS REPRESENTAT LEDERGERBER R, IN PRESS GESELLSCHAF LEDOUX B, 1995, CATASTROPHES NATUREL SCHOENEICH P, 31 PNR NR 9 TC 0 J9 ECLOGAE GEOL HELV BP 463 EP 469 PY 1997 VL 90 IS 3 GA YU114 UT ISI:000071683300014 ER PT J AU Withers, PJA Lord, EI TI Agricultural nutrient inputs to rivers and groundwaters in the UK: policy, environmental management and research needs SO SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT LA English DT Article C1 ADAS Bridgets, Winchester SO21 1AP, Hants, England. ADAS Woodthorne, Wolverhampton WV6 8TQ, W Midlands, England. RP Withers, PJA, ADAS Bridgets, Winchester SO21 1AP, Hants, England. AB Losses of nitrogen (N) and phosphorus M in land run-off and drainage from agricultural land can impair river water quality and may pose a potential health hazard. Losses of P are up to an order of magnitude smaller than those of N, but may be more significant with respect to freshwater eutrophication. At the field scale, research suggests that rates of nutrient loss are sensitive to both nutrient and land management, in particular, where nutrient inputs continuously exceed production requirements and where farming methods increase land vulnerability to run-off and erosion. A clear distinction can be made between N and P in the timescales over which inputs of these nutrients are buffered by terrestrial ecosystems against loss, which has implications for control strategies. At the river basin scale, any targets for reducing nutrient loss are best guided by site-specific information on their likely ecological impact, but this information rarely exists for UK rivers affected by eutrophication, and only general guidelines are available. True management of the environment requires integrated approaches which include both N and P taking account of differences in their source areas and delivery mechanisms, the vulnerability of land use and adoption of safe management options in relation to landscape characteristics and the sensitivity of the watercourse along its reach. For P, the identification of vulnerable zones represents a step forward to the management of the river basin in smaller definable units, which can provide a focus for safe management practices. This requires a better understanding of the linkages between nutrient sources, transport and impacts and is considered an urgent research priority. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. CR *CEC, 1991, OFFICIAL J EUROPEAN *CEC, 2000, EST FRAM COMM ACT FI *EA, 2000, AQ EUTR ENGL WAL MAN, P32 *EN, 1997, WILDL FRESH WAT AG S *MAFF FMA SCOTT EX, 2000, BRIT SURV FERT PRACT, P106 *MAFF, 1993, MAFF PUBL, P37 *MAFF, 1998, GUID FARM NVZS *MAFF, 2000, MAFF PUBL ANTHONY S, 1996, ASPECTS APPL BIOL, V46, P23 BECHMANN M, 1998, ENVIRON POLLUT S1, V102, P493 CHAMBERS BJ, 1999, SOIL USE MANAGE, V15, P137 CHAMBERS BJ, 2000, J ENVIRON QUAL, V29, P145 CHAPMAN PJ, 1999, IMPACT NITROGEN DEPO, P153 DAVIES DB, 1995, J SCI FOOD AGR, V68, P399 DAVIES DB, 1996, J AGR SCI 1, V126, P75 DILS RM, 1997, THESIS U SHEFFIELCD EDWARDS AC, 1998, SOIL USE MANAGE S, V14, P124 EDWARDS AC, 2000, J APPL ECOL S1, V37, P159 EDWARDS AC, 2000, J ENVIRON QUAL, V29, P117 FERRIER RC, 2001, IN PRESS SCI TOTAL E FOY RH, 1995, P FERT SOC 365 FERT FRASER AI, 1999, WATER SCI TECHNOL, V39, P48 GBUREK WJ, 1998, J ENVIRON QUAL, V27, P267 GOULDING K, 2000, SOIL USE MANAGE S1, V16, P145 HAYGARTH PM, 1998, EUR J SOIL SCI, V49, P65 HAYGARTH PM, 1999, ADV AGRON, V66, P195 HEATHWAITE AL, 1996, HYDROL PROCESS, V10, P263 HEATHWAITE AL, 2000, SCI TOTAL ENVIRON, V251, P523 HEATHWAITE L, 2000, J ENVIRON QUAL, V29, P158 HECKRATH G, 1995, J ENVIRON QUAL, V24, P904 HOODA PS, 2000, J ENVIRON QUAL, V29, P1166 HOUSE WA, 1998, SOIL USE MANAGE S, V14, P139 JAMES PA, 1998, J AGR SCI 4, V130, P473 JARVIE HP, 1998, SCI TOTAL ENVIRON, V210, P79 JARVIE HP, 2002, SCI TOTAL ENVIRON, V282, P175 JARVIS SC, 1992, ASPECTS APPL BIOL, V30, P207 JOHNES P, 1996, FRESHWATER BIOL, V36, P451 LORD E, 1992, ASPECTS APPL BIOL, V30, P19 LORD EI, 1995, BIOL AGRIC HORTIC, V11, P257 LORD EI, 1998, SOIL USE MANAGE, V14, P78 LORD EI, 2000, SOIL USE MANAGE S1, V16, P167 MAINSTONE CP, 1996, EUROPEAN WATER POLLU, V6, P21 MUSCUTT AD, 1993, AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON, V45, P59 MUSCUTT AD, 1996, WATER RES, V30, P1258 OSBORNE LL, 1988, J ENVIRON MANAGE, V26, P9 PAIN BF, 2000, AMMONIA EMISSION INV PARKER JM, 1991, APPL GROUNDWATER HYD, P149 SHARPLEY AN, 1994, FERT RES, V39, P133 SHEPHERD MA, 1996, J AGR SCI 2, V127, P215 SHEPHERD MA, 1999, NUTR CYCL AGROECOSYS, V54, P233 SMITH KA, 1995, AGR ENG, V50, P33 SMITH KA, 1998, ENV FRIENDLY MANAGEM, P79 SMITH KA, 2000, BIORESOURCE TECHNOL, V71, P173 SMITH KA, 2000, BIORESOURCE TECHNOL, V71, P183 SMITH KA, 2000, SOIL USE MANAGE, V16, P124 SMITH KA, 2001, IN PRESS SOIL USE MA SMITH KA, 2001, NITROGEN ENV POLLUT, V112, P41 SMITH KA, 2001, PHOSPHORUS ENV POLLU, V112, P53 SMITH VH, 1999, ENVIRON POLLUT, V100, P179 SRINIVASAN MS, 2001, IN PRESS HYDROL P SYLVESTERBRADLEY R, 1999, SOIL USE MANAGE, V15, P1 VANONGEVAL L, 1997, 9742E NUT, P1 WALLING DE, 2000, SCI TOTAL ENVIRON, V251, P205 WARD JV, 1995, REGUL RIVER, V11, P105 WEBB J, 1999, SURVEY ELEMENT WA051 WILLIAMS JR, 1995, AGR EN, V50, P24 WITHERS PJA, 1991, J AGR SCI, V117, P211 WITHERS PJA, 1998, SOIL USE MANAGE S, V14, P186 WITHERS PJA, 2000, GRASS FORAGE SCI, V55, P105 WITHERS PJA, 2000, J ENVIRON QUAL, V29, P167 WITHERS PJA, 2000, SOIL USE MANAGE, V15, P221 WITHERS PJA, 2001, IN PRESS SOIL USE MA WITHERS PJA, 2001, J ENVIRON QUAL, V30, P180 NR 73 TC 5 J9 SCI TOTAL ENVIR BP 9 EP 24 PY 2002 PD JAN 23 VL 282 GA 518AT UT ISI:000173644400003 ER PT J AU Smith, JB Ragland, SE Pitts, GJ TI A process for evaluating anticipatory adaptation measures for climate change SO WATER AIR AND SOIL POLLUTION LA English DT Article RP Smith, JB, HAGLER BAILLY CONSULTING INC,PO DRAWER O,BOULDER,CO 80306. AB Many countries are preparing national climate change action plans that describe specific measures they are taking to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to the potential effects of climate change. Among the reasons for preparing such plans are that climate change is likely to occur, and many anticipatory measures that would be taken in response to climate change are ''no regret'' measures that will produce benefits even if climate does not change. Additionally, these plans can serve as communications required by the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change, We propose here an assessment process for anticipatory adaptation measures that will enable countries to identify and select measures to adapt to climate change. These measures anticipate potential climate changes and are flexible enough to meat objectives under a wide variety of future climate conditions. The process builds on assessments of vulnerability by focusing on adaptation measures for the most sensitive regions, or populations, within a country. potential anticipatory adaptation measures are identified, and two or three are chosen based on expert judgment and analysis regarding which measures would produce the greatest benefits and be easiest to implement. Analytic techniques are used to assess the benefits and costs of each of the measures and evaluate barriers to implementation. The measure that is most cost-effective and is easiest to implement is selected. We illustrate the application of the process by examining a hypothetical forest threatened by climate change. CR *AS DEV BANK, 1994, CLIM CHANG AS THEM O *IPCC, IN PRESS SCI TECHN A *IPCC, 1995, CLIM CHANG 1995 SCI *NAS, 1992, POL IMPL GREENH WARM *OTA, 1993, PREP UNC CLIM, V2 *UNEP WMO, UN FRAM CONV CLIM CH *WORLD WILDL FUND, 1992, CAN NAT SURV GLOB WA BENIOFF R, IN PRESS VULNERABILI CARTER TR, 1994, IPCC TECHNICAL GUIDE FANKHAUSER S, 1996, ADAPTATION CLIMATE C GOKLANY IM, 1995, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V30, P427 GRAMLICH EM, 1981, BENEFIT COST ANAL GO LILLIEHOLM RJ, 1993, PREPARING UNCERTAIN, V2 MARKHAM A, 1996, ADAPTATION CLIMATE C MELILLO JM, 1993, NATURE, V363, P234 MORSE LE, 1993, POTENTIAL EFFECTS CL SMITH A, 1994, MULTICRITERIA APPROA SMITH JB, IN PRESS ENV PROFESS SMITH JB, 1996, CLIMATE RES, V6, P193 SMITH TM, 1992, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V21, P367 TEGART WJ, 1990, CLIMATE CHANGE IPCC TITUS JG, 1990, APA J, V311 NR 22 TC 2 J9 WATER AIR SOIL POLLUT BP 229 EP 238 PY 1996 PD SEP VL 92 IS 1-2 GA VM538 UT ISI:A1996VM53800023 ER PT J AU Bolte, JP Hulse, DW Gregory, SV Smith, C TI Modeling biocomplexity - actors, landscapes and alternative futures SO ENVIRONMENTAL MODELLING & SOFTWARE LA English DT Article C1 Oregon State Univ, Dept Bioengn, Corvallis, OR 97331 USA. Oregon State Univ, Dept Landscape Architecture, Corvallis, OR 97331 USA. Oregon State Univ, Dept Fisheries & Wildlife, Corvallis, OR 97331 USA. Oregon State Univ, Dept Anthropol, Corvallis, OR 97331 USA. RP Bolte, JP, Oregon State Univ, Dept Bioengn, Corvallis, OR 97331 USA. AB Increasingly, models (and modelers) are being asked to address the interactions between human influences, ecological processes, and landscape dynamics that impact many diverse aspects of managing complex coupled human and natural systems. These systems may be profoundly influenced by human decisions at multiple spatial and temporal scales, and the limitations of traditional process-level ecosystems modeling approaches for representing the richness of factors shaping landscape dynamics in these coupled systems has resulted in the need for new analysis approaches. New tools in the areas of spatial data management and analysis, multicriteria decision-making, individual-based modeling, and complexity science have all begun to impact how we approach modeling these systems. The term "biocomplexity" has emerged as a descriptor of the rich patterns of interactions and behaviors in human and natural systems, and the challenges of analyzing biocomplex behavior is resulting in a convergence of approaches leading to new ways of understanding these systems. Important questions related to system vulnerability and resilience, adaptation, feedback processing, cycling, non-linearities and other complex behaviors are being addressed using models employing new representational approaches to analysis. The complexity inherent in these systems challenges the modeling community to provide tools that capture sufficiently the richness of human and ecosystem processes and interactions in ways that are computationally tractable and understandable. We examine one such tool, EvoLand, which uses an actor-based approach to conduct alternative futures analyses in the Willamette Basin, Oregon. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *NAS, 2001, ASS TMDL APPR WAT QU ARTHUR WB, 1997, EC EVOLVING COMPLEX BAK P, 1989, PHYS TODAY JAN BAKER JP, 2004, ECOL APPL, V14, P313 BELLA DA, 1997, J BUS ETHICS, V16, P977 CARPENTER SR, 1999, CONSERV ECOL, V3, P1 CARPENTER SR, 1997, CONSERV ECOL, V1, P1 CHATTOE E, 1998, J ARTIFICIAL SOC SOC, V1 COLWELL RA, 1998, BIOSCIENCE, V48, P786 DANIELS M, 1999, AG SIM APPL MOD TOOL EMERY FE, 1965, HUM RELAT, V18, P21 ETIENNE M, 2003, J ARTIFICIAL SOC SOC, V6 FERNANDEZ P, 2003, 0310055 SFI GUNDERSON LH, 2002, RESILIENCE BEHAV LAR HOLLAND JH, 1995, HIDDEN ORDER ADAPTIO HOLLING CS, 2001, ECOSYSTEMS, V4, P390 HULSE D, 2000, LANDSCAPE J, V19, P1 HULSE DW, 2004, ECOL APPL, V14, P325 KAUFFMAN SA, 1969, J THEOR BIOL, V22, P437 LEPPERHOFF N, 2002, J ARTIFICIAL SOC SOC, V5 LEVIN SA, 1998, ECOSYSTEMS, V1, P431 MANSON SM, 2001, GEOFORUM, V32, P405 MAXWELL T, 1995, INT J COMPUTER SIMUL, V5, P247 NOTH M, 2000, 20001201 U WASH DEP PARKER DC, 2003, ANN ASS AM GEOGRAPHE, V93 SANTELMANN M, 2001, APPL ECOLOGICAL PRIN, P226 SENGUPTA RR, 2003, INT J GEOGR INF SCI, V17, P157 SHEFFER M, 2002, PANARCHY UNDERSTANDI, P195 STEINITZ C, 2001, APPL ECOLOGICAL PRIN, P165 VANSICKLE J, 2004, ECOL APPL, V14, P368 VOINOV AA, 1999, J ECOSYSTEM MODELING, V14, P473 WALKER BH, 1981, J ECOL, V69, P473 NR 32 TC 0 J9 ENVIRON MODELL SOFTW BP 570 EP 579 PY 2007 PD MAY VL 22 IS 5 GA 133JO UT ISI:000244009400003 ER PT J AU BROADUS, JM VARTANOV, RV TI THE OCEANS AND ENVIRONMENTAL SECURITY SO OCEANUS LA English DT Article C1 ACAD SCI USSR,MEMO,OCEAN DEV & ENVIRONM SECT,MOSCOW V-71,USSR. RP BROADUS, JM, WOODS HOLE OCEANOG INST,CTR MARINE POLICY,WOODS HOLE,MA 02543. NR 0 TC 0 J9 OCEANUS BP 14 EP 19 PY 1991 PD SUM VL 34 IS 2 GA GE602 UT ISI:A1991GE60200003 ER PT J AU Sims, REH TI Renewable energy: a response to climate change SO SOLAR ENERGY LA English DT Article C1 Massey Univ, Coll Sci, Energy Res Ctr, Palmerston North, New Zealand. RP Sims, REH, Massey Univ, Coll Sci, Energy Res Ctr, Private Bag 11222, Palmerston North, New Zealand. AB "We recognize the importance of renewable energy for sustainable development, diversification of energy supply, and preservation of the environment. We will ensure that renewable energy sources are adequately considered in our national plans and encourage others to do so as well. We encourage continuing research and investment in renewable energy technology, throughout the world". Communique from the G8 Leaders' Summit, Genoa, July 2001. The Third Assessment Report of the IPCC confirmed that the Earth's climate is changing as a result of human activities, particularly from energy use, and that further change is inevitable. Natural ecosystems are already adapting to change, some are under threat, and it is evident that human health and habitats will be affected world-wide. Such climate changes could also affect the present supplies of renewable energy sources and the performance and reliability of the conversion technologies. This paper concentrates on the reduction of carbon dioxide emissions and the role that the global renewable energy industry might play in this regard. (The five other major greenhouse gases are given less emphasis here.) The paper compares the costs of renewable energy systems with fossil fuel-derived energy services and considers how placing a value on carbon emissions will help provide convergence. The move towards a de-carbonised world, driven partly by climate change science and partly by the business opportunities it offers, will need to occur sooner rather than later if an acceptable stabilisation level of atmospheric carbon dioxide is to be achieved. Government policy decisions made now will determine the sort of future world we wish our children to inherit. The renewable energy era has begun. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *IEA, 2000, TECHN PATHS GLOB EL *IEA, 2001, WORLD EN OUTL 2001 I *IPCC, 2001, CLIM CHANG 2001 *SHELL CTR, 1997, EV WORLDS EN SYST METZ B, 2001, MITIGATION UN INTERG SIMS REH, 2003, ENERG POLICY, V31, P1315 NR 6 TC 1 J9 SOLAR ENERG BP 9 EP 17 PY 2004 VL 76 IS 1-3 GA 766TL UT ISI:000188391600003 ER PT J AU Douglas, EM Wood, S Sebastian, K Vorosmarty, C Chomitz, KM Tomich, TP TI Policy implications of a pan-tropic assessment of the simultaneous hydrological and biodiversity impacts of deforestation SO WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article C1 Univ New Hampshire, Inst Study Earth Oceans & Space, Water Syst Anal Grp, Durham, NH 03801 USA. Int Food Policy Res Inst, Washington, DC 20006 USA. World Bank, Dev Res Grp, Washington, DC 20006 USA. World Agroforestry Ctr, Alternat Slash & Burn Program, Nairobi, Kenya. RP Douglas, EM, Univ New Hampshire, Inst Study Earth Oceans & Space, Water Syst Anal Grp, Durham, NH 03801 USA. AB Tropical deforestation has many consequences, amongst which alteration of the hydrological cycle and loss of habitat and biodiversity are the focus of much public interest and scientific research. Here we examine the potential biodiversity and hydrological impacts of an extreme deforestation scenario - the loss of all tropical forest areas currently identified by the World Wildlife Fund as being threatened. Existing tropical forest areas are first classified according to two categories of biological distinctiveness - high and low - using indicators developed by the WWF. We apply the tropical deforestation scenario to a macro-scale hydrologic model, keeping track of the share of change in basin runoff that originates from the deforestation of areas of high versus low biological distinctiveness and where that change could impact human populations. Of particular interest are those basins where loss of the most threatened tropical forest areas would give rise to significant biodiversity loss and to potentially large hydrological impacts. In such cases it is conceivable that biodiversity conservation could "free-ride" on the concerns of resident populations to maintain the forests for the purpose of minimizing hydrological change. Where such an outcome seems likely, biodiversity conservation efforts might be better targeted elsewhere, perhaps to basins where the loss of forest areas with high biological distinctiveness would have less population impacts, hence requiring an alliance between biological and hydrological interests to gain sufficient social and financial support for conservation. 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RP Peterson, GD, Univ Wisconsin, Ctr Limnol, 680 N Pk St, Madison, WI 53706 USA. AB Although ecological managers typically focus on managing local or regional landscapes, they often have little ability to control or predict many of the large-scale, long-term processes that drive changes within these landscapes. This lack of control has led some ecologists to argue that ecological management should aim to produce ecosystems that are resilient to change and surprise. Unfortunately, ecological resilience is difficult to measure or estimate in the landscapes people manage. In this paper, I extend system dynamics approaches to resilience and estimate resilience using complex landscape simulation models. I use this approach to evaluate cross-scale edge, a novel empirical method for estimating resilience based on landscape pattern. Cross-scale edge provides relatively robust estimates of resilience, suggesting that, with some further developments it could be used as a management tool to provide rough and rapid estimates of areas of resilience and vulnerability within a landscape. CR *U FLOR NAT CONS T, 1993, EGL AIR FORC BAS NAT CARPENTER SR, 2001, ECOSYSTEMS, V4, P765 CARPENTER SR, 1999, ECOL APPL, V9, P751 GLITZENSTEIN JS, 1995, ECOL MONOGR, V65, P441 GUNDERSON LH, 2000, ANNU REV ECOL SYST, V31, P425 GUNDERSON LH, 2002, PANARCHY UNDERSTANDI, V1, P1 HARDESTY J, 2000, CONSERVATION BIOL PR, V1, P26 HEYWARD F, 1939, ECOLOGY, V20, P287 HOLLING CS, 1973, ANNUAL REV ECOLOGY S, V4, P1 HOLLING CS, 1996, CONSERV BIOL, V10, P328 HUGHES TP, 1994, SCIENCE, V265, P1547 KNOWLTON N, 1992, AM ZOOL, V32, P674 LUDWIG D, 1997, CONSERV ECOL, V1, P1 MILNE BT, 1996, ECOLOGY, V77, P805 PETERSON GD, 1998, ECOSYSTEMS, V1, P6 PETERSON GD, 1999, THESIS U FLORIDA GAI PLATT WJ, 1993, TALL TIMBERS ECOLOGY, P275 REBERTUS AJ, 1989, ECOLOGY, V70, P60 RINALDI S, 2000, ECOSYSTEMS, V3, P507 SCHEFFER M, 2001, NATURE, V413, P591 SKLAR FH, 1991, QUANTITATIVE METHODS, P239 SKLAR FH, 2001, ECOL ECON, V37, P379 STAUFFER D, 1994, INTRO PERCOLATION TH USHER MB, 1992, PLANT SUCCESSION THE, P215 WALTERS CJ, 1992, ECOL APPL, V2, P189 NR 25 TC 4 J9 CONSERV ECOL BP 1 PY 2002 PD JUN VL 6 IS 1 GA 591QW UT ISI:000177892600005 ER PT J AU Rozhnov, IM TI Environmental security in northern regions: Uralmash's rig design opportunities SO NEFTYANOE KHOZYAISTVO LA Russian DT Article AB It was found that a four-stage drilling mud treating system will be essential to improve mud treatment quality and to minimise rig sludge disposal from new Uralmash's drilling rigs. Operating principles are addressed, together with system advantages and unique treatment features. Benefits of small-block centrifugal and pumping assembly designs are addressed. NR 0 TC 0 J9 NEFTYANOE KHOZYAISTVO BP 38 EP 40 PY 2000 PD JUN IS 6 GA 336RZ UT ISI:000088317900010 ER PT J AU Henk, D TI Biodiversity and the military in Botswana SO ARMED FORCES & SOCIETY LA English DT Article AB This is a narrative of accomplishment that speaks well for a government and an army on a continent where both are widely held in contempt. It argues that Africans are contributing meaningfully to, emerging global thinking on "security," citing a case in which some of that new thinking involves environmental issues. Inline with the new thinking, one African country, Botswana, has for almost two decades successfully deployed its capable, professional military to secure the large wild animals in its national parks. This article describes the country's wildlife resources and its antipoaching motivations before locating its antipoaching Success in the wider framework of state capacity, political economy, and civil-military relations. The author urges caution in the use of armed forces for internal security roles in African countries but contends that Botswana's success can be replicated if key variables are understood and "controlled." 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RP Peterson, GD, Univ Florida, Dept Zool, POB 118525, Gainesville, FL 32611 USA. AB Assessing impacts of global change is complicated by the problems associated with translating models and data across spatial and temporal scales. One of the major problems of ecological scaling is the dynamic, self-organized nature of ecosystems. Ecological organization emerges from the interaction of structures and processes operating at different scales. The resilience of ecological organization to changes in key cross-scale processes can be used to assess the contexts within which scaling methods function well, need adjustment, and break down. 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Partnerships and environmental regulation SO ENVIRONMENT AND PLANNING C-GOVERNMENT AND POLICY LA English DT Article C1 Macaulay Inst, Socio Econ Res Programme, Aberdeen AB15 8QH, Scotland. Univ Dundee, Dept Law, Dundee DD1 4HN, Scotland. Univ Dundee, Dept Geog, Dundee DD1 4HN, Scotland. RP Sherlock, KL, Macaulay Inst, Socio Econ Res Programme, Aberdeen AB15 8QH, Scotland. AB Governance based on partnerships has become a characteristic of late capitalist societies. This paper explores how this new collaborative approach to environmental regulation creates challenges for existing technocratic policy networks, drawing on an organisational ethnography of the Scottish Environment Protection Agency. Our findings suggest partnership working is embraced for four reasons-to improve understanding of problems, to develop resource-efficient management solutions, to improve implementation of these solutions, and to improve communication and trust within the policy network. However, there appear to be three areas of difficulty. First, decisionmaking appears to be dominated by technocratic public servants; second, practical reasons for partnership, rather than embracing the normative arguments for discursive democracy, motivate most participants; and, third, participants are yet to experience the benefits of partnerships. We suggest three key areas which might address these problems and contribute towards a more successful implementation of the collaborative approach to regulation, namely to provide incentives for partnership working (demonstrating how the perceived benefits outweigh costs), developing interorganisational trust and providing organisational support (resources). We conclude with an analysis of the constraints that must be overcome to develop effective partnerships for environmental management, particularly the need to extend the network beyond the 'usual suspects' and to embrace the normative dimensions of participatory democracy. 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RP McBean, G, Univ Western Ontario, Inst Catastroph Loss Reduct, London, ON N6H 5H5, Canada. AB The economic and social costs of extreme weather-related events have been increasing around the globe. There is some debate over how much of this past increase has been due to social factors and how much due to changes in frequency or characteristics of extreme events. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2001a) has affirmed that humans are having a role in changing the climate and will have a larger role in the future. Although the changes in extreme events are by their nature both difficult to detect and difficult to model, the consensus is that there will be changes in the future. Through a risk-based decision-making analysis, it is concluded that society should make the additional investments to reduce vulnerability to this increased risk. 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SO CLIMATE POLICY LA English DT Editorial Material C1 Polish Acad Sci, Res Ctr Agr & Forest Environm, Poznan, Poland. Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res, Potsdam, Germany. Tyndall Ctr Climate Change Res, Norwich, Norfolk, England. RP Kundzewicz, ZW, Polish Acad Sci, Res Ctr Agr & Forest Environm, Poznan, Poland. AB Since the World Climate Change Conference held in the autumn of 2003 in Moscow, Russian Federation, the fate of international climate policy architecture designed around the Kyoto Protocol hangs in the balance. After the withdrawal of the USA from the Kyoto Protocol, the condition of its ratification cannot be met without the Russian Federation. There has been a considerable uncertainty as to Russia's intentions regarding ratification of Kyoto. In this contribution, an attempt is made to identify the Russian motives and concerns, and explain their attitudes regarding the Kyoto Protocol. Pressures against and for ratification are discussed. Finally, a few comments are made about the future of the efforts to solve the global environmental problem of protecting the Earth's climate. CR GRUBB M, 2004, ILLARIONOV FEAR KYOT HOUGHTON JT, 2001, CONTRIBUTION WORKING KARAS J, 2004, RUSSIA KYOTO PROTOCO KONDRATYEV K, 2003, POLITYKA, V47 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 MULLER B, 2004, KYOTO PROTOCOL RUSSI PATTERSON T, 2003, MOSCOW TIMES 1002, P10 RAHMSTORF S, 2004, EOS T AGU, V85, P38 WATSON RT, 2001, CONTRIBUTION WORKING WATSON RT, 2003, SCIENCE, V302, P1925 NR 10 TC 0 J9 CLIM POLICY BP 81 EP 90 PY 2004 VL 4 IS 1 GA 892TJ UT ISI:000226672600008 ER PT J AU Ross, N Eyles, J Cole, DC Iannantuono, A TI The ecosystem health metaphor in science and policy SO CANADIAN GEOGRAPHER-GEOGRAPHE CANADIEN LA English DT Article C1 MCMASTER UNIV,ENVIRONM HLTH PROGRAM,HAMILTON,ON L8S 4K1,CANADA. RP Ross, N, MCMASTER UNIV,DEPT GEOG,HAMILTON,ON L8S 4K1,CANADA. AB 'Ecosystem health' is an increasingly common metaphor in the language of science and policy. Given the prominence of both the ecosystem and health concepts within geography, this paper examines the meanings generated by the adoption oi the metaphor for scientific research and for environmental policy on the North American Great Lakes. 'Ecosystem' can be characterized as an entity, an abstract concept, or a perspective. As perspective, ecosystem shares many features of postmodern science, emphasizing complexity and holism and calling for the inclusion of human beings in our considerations of nature. The ecosystem health metaphor is politically powerful in its ability to evoke action and concern for the environment with an appeal to the universal experiences of human ill-health. The organismic ecosystem health metaphor provides a new relevant way of thinking about the natural world. In policy discourse, however, metaphor can be problematic in that there is potential for the author or speaker to hide behind the nonliteral language. Moreover, the acceptance of the ecosystem health metaphor which can draw upon widely held beliefs and norms implies that other ways of knowing the world are necessarily omitted. We highlight some of these issues in a case study of a policy document prepared by the Ecological Committee of the Great Lakes International Joint Commission. To continue to know how to study nature in new ways, metaphors must be encouraged, but their meanings must also be widely explored. 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American Univ, Dept Govt, St Marys City, MD 20686 USA. RP Boykoff, MT, Univ Calif Santa Cruz, Dept Environm Studies, Interdisciplinary Sci Bldg,1156 High St, Santa Cruz, CA 95064 USA. AB This paper demonstrates that US prestige-press coverage of global warming from 1988 to 2002 has contributed to a significant divergence of popular discourse from scientific discourse. This failed discursive translation results from an accumulation of tactical media responses and practices guided by widely accepted journalistic norms. Through content analysis of US prestige press-meaning the New York Times, the Washington Post, the Los Angeles Times, and the Wall Street Journal-this paper focuses on the norm of balanced reporting, and shows that the prestige press's adherence to balance actually leads to biased coverage of both anthropogenic contributions to global warming and resultant action. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 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CR *CAN ONT GREAT LAK, 1975, TECHN REP, P43 *GREAT LAK BAS COM, 1975, BAS FRAM STUD, P75 *US ARM CORPS ENG, DISTR POL CONC PERM *US ARM CORPS ENG, 1971, NAT SHOR STUD GREAT, P158 *US ARM CORPS ENG, 1973, DRAFT ENV IMP STAT C BURTON I, 1968, 1 U TOR DEP GEOGR WO, P3 BURTON I, 1969, 115 U CHIC DEP GEOGR, P183 BURTON I, 1978, ENV HAZARD, V1, P1 CRAINE LE, 1969, WATER MANAGEMENT INN DORFMAN R, 1965, MEASURING BENEFITS G DWORSKY LB, 1973, PROPOSAL IMPROVING M FUCIK WC, 1975, P RECESSION RATE WOR, P84 KATES RW, 1962, 78 U CHIC DEP GEOGR KREUTZWISER RD, 1977, THESIS U WESTERN ONT, P69 LILLEVANG OJ, 1966, COASTAL ENG, P749 MCKEAN RN, 1958, EFFICIENCY GOVT SYST MITCHELL JK, 1974, 156 U CHIC DEP GEOGR MORLEY CG, ENV MANAGEMENT PUBLI, P79 NELSON JG, 1975, CANADIAN GEOGRAPHER, V19, P37 SAYLOR JH, 1966, MODIFICATION NEARSHO SHEAFFER JR, 1970, COMMUNITY GOALS MANA, P62 TORRY WI, 1979, CAN GEOGR, V23, P368 WHITE GF, 1964, 93 U CHIC DEP GEOGR NR 23 TC 4 J9 CAN GEOGR-GEOGR CAN BP 263 EP 273 PY 1982 VL 26 IS 3 GA PS856 UT ISI:A1982PS85600007 ER PT J AU Turner, BL TI The sustainability principle in global agendas: implications for understanding land-use/cover change SO GEOGRAPHICAL JOURNAL LA English DT Article C1 CLARK UNIV,GEORGE PERKINS MARSH INST,WORCESTER,MA 01610. RP Turner, BL, CLARK UNIV,GRAD SCH GEOG,WORCESTER,MA 01610. AB The centrality of the sustainability principle to the international agendas on environment and development raises serious research problems and opportunities. The problems are manifested in such societal objectives as 'sustainable development' and a history of human-environment relationships, suggesting that the objective constitutes a paradox. The opportunities follow from the fusion of sustainable development and global environmental change research fostered by the principle. This fusion is particularly pronounced in the study of land-use/cover change in the tropical world, a subject elevated to the forefront of the research and practitioner communities. The international agendas addressing this change, such as the IGBP-IHDP core project on Land-Use/Cover Change, promise long-term, sustained research activities that join the natural and human sciences with the research and practitioner communities. They do so, however, by requiring a scale and type of interdisciplinary and inter-perspective cooperation and coordination not typical of all human sciences, including geography. The divisive character of competing approaches and explanations of land-use/cover change illustrate this situation. 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Univ Auckland, Sch Asian Studies, Auckland 1, New Zealand. RP Bankoff, G, Univ Wageningen & Res Ctr, 1 Hollandseweg, NL-6700 EW Wageningen, Netherlands. AB flooding is not a recent hazard in the Philippines but one that has occurred throughout the recorded history of the archipelago. On the one hand, it is related to a wider global ecological crisis to do with climatic change and rising sea levels but on the other hand, it is also the effect of more localised human activities. A whole range of socio-economic factors such as land use practices, living standards and policy responses are increasingly influencing the frequency of natural hazards such as floods and the corresponding occurrence of disasters. In particular, the reason why flooding has come to pose such a pervasive risk to the residents of metropolitan Manila has its basis in a complex mix of inter-relating factors that emphasise how the nature of vulnerability is constructed through the lack of mutuality between environment and human activity over time. This paper examines three aspects of this flooding: first, the importance of an historical approach in understanding how hazards are generated; second, the degree of interplay between environment and society in creating risk; and third, the manner in which vulnerability is a complex construction. CR 2001, IBON, V24, P31 *AMO, FLOODS PHIL *AMO, LIST TYPH *BAS, 2001, DOC IMP RESP EXTR CL *BUR PRINT, 1920, CENS PHIL ISL 1918 *CDRC, 2001, DIS PHIL 2000 *CDRC, 2001, DIS PHIL 2001 DRENCH *DPWH, 2002, CCPS SUBCL REL INF S *IB, 2000, STAT PHIL ENV *MMDA, ACC GARB VAR NCR DPW *MMDA, BRIEF MAT FLOOD CONT *MMDA, DPWH DEV NCR FLOOD C, P18 *MMDA, ISS CONC FLOOD CONTR *MMDA, MANG FLOODW PROJ *MMDA, NO MANP UT REG DISTR *MMDA, 2000, BRIEF MAT FLOOD CONT *NDCC, 1995, DIS INC *NDCC, 1999, DIS DAT 1973 1999 FL *OCD, 1998, MAN CIT FLOOD PRON A *OCD, 2000, HAZ PRON AR METR MAN *OCD, 2000, TOT POP POP GROWTH R ABOY R, COMMUNICATION AFUANG B, 2001, PHILIPPINE STAR, V15, B4 BANKOFF G, 2000, CULTURES DISASTER SO BROWN N, 1991, DISASTER MITIGATION CANNON T, 1994, DISASTERS DEV ENV CORONAS J, 1920, CENSUS PHILIPPINE IS DELEMPS XH, 2001, PHILIPPINE STUDIES, V49, P488 FANO N, 2000, PRESSURE URBANIZATIO, P53 LABRADOR L, 1996, PHILIPPINE J LABOR I, V17, P44 LAUREL RK, 1991, NATL MIDWEEK 1127, P7 LEES S, 1984, ECOSYSTEM CONCEPT AN LIONGSON L, 2000, PRESSURE URBANIZATIO OLIVERSMITH A, 1986, NATURAL DISASTERS CU PAGE J, 2000, PRESSURE URBANIZATIO PEREZ A, 1995, WASTE MANAGEMENT DIF REBULLIDA ML, 1999, HOUSING URBAN POOR P RODOLFO K, 2003, COMMUNICATION SIRINGAN P, 2002, CONV HALL BUR SOILS TABIOS G, 2000, PRESSURE URBANIZATIO VITUG M, 1993, POLITICS LOGGING POW WINTERHALER B, 1980, HUM ECOL, V8, P137 ZOLETANANTES D, 2000, PRESSURE URBANIZATIO NR 43 TC 1 J9 DISASTERS BP 224 EP 238 PY 2003 PD SEP VL 27 IS 3 GA 724KE UT ISI:000185486100003 ER PT J AU Grasso, M TI A normative ethical framework in climate change SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 Univ Studi Milano Bicocca, Dipartimento Sociol & Ric Sociale, I-20126 Milan, Italy. Kings College London, Dept Geog, London WC2R 2LS, England. RP Grasso, M, Univ Studi Milano Bicocca, Dipartimento Sociol & Ric Sociale, Edif U7,Via Bicocca Arcimboldi 8, I-20126 Milan, Italy. AB The article spells out four domains of international distributive justice and the consequent criteria of equity, the purpose being to identify a pluralistic normative ethical framework for climate mitigation and adaptation strategies. Justice and equity should play a major role in favouring collective action against climate change, because the more the various dimensions of such action are just, the more any international climate initiative is feasible in principle. As far as mitigation is concerned, the definition of a just initial allocation of endowments focuses on the criterion of differentiated equality, taking account of undeserved inequalities as suggested by Rawls' theory of justice as fairness. With regard to the subsequent exchange of endowments, the Pareto principle, supplemented by the envy-freeness one, is a viable option. Possibly a sound reference for the just financing of adaptation activities is the criterion of differentiated historical responsibility, backed by Rawls' theory of justice as fairness. As regards the allocation of adaptation resources, the criterion of lack of human security, as substantiated in Sen's capability approach, seems promising. 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RP HANDEL, MD, GPAS,PHILLIPS LAB,SCEEE GEOPHYS SCHOLARS PROGRAM,BEDFORD,MA 01731. AB The literature on climate change from an enhanced greenhouse effect is large and growing rapidly. The problems considered are increasingly interdisciplinary. For these reasons many workers will find useful pointers to the literature in the fields interacting with, but outside of, their own. We present here an annotated bibliography on issues relating to changes in the concentrations of Earth's greenhouse gases. The areas covered include theory and numerical modelling of climate change; cycles involving carbon dioxide and other radiatively important trace gases; observations of climate change and the problems associated with those observations; paleoclimatology as it relates to previous changes in the greenhouse gases; the impacts on and interactions with managed and natural ecosystems from climate change; policy issues related to climate change and to the limitation of climate change; history of the study of the greenhouse effect; and some other causes of climate change. Selection of papers has been made to facilitate rapid introduction to most of the important issues and findings in an area. Over 600 articles, reports, and books are discussed. 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Fresco, N Juday, G Niemela, J Shvidenko, A Whiteman, G TI Resilience and vulnerability of northern regions to social and environmental change SO AMBIO LA English DT Article C1 Univ Alaska, Inst Arctic Biol, Fairbanks, AK 99775 USA. RP Chapin, FS, Univ Alaska, Inst Arctic Biol, Fairbanks, AK 99775 USA. AB The arctic tundra and boreal forest were once considered the last frontiers on earth because of their vast expanses remote from agricultural land-use change and industrial development. These regions are now, however, experiencing environmental and social changes that are as rapid as those occurring anywhere on earth. This paper summarizes the role of northern regions in the global system and provides a blueprint for assessing the factors that govern their sensitivity to social and environmental change. 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RP Berkes, F, Univ Manitoba, Nat Resources Inst, 70 Dysart Rd, Winnipeg, MB R3T 2N2, Canada. AB Community-based conservation (CBC) is based on the idea that if conservation and development could be simultaneously achieved, then the interests of both could be served. It has been controversial because community development objectives are not necessarily consistent with conservation objectives in a given case. I examined CBC from two angles. First, CBC can be seen in the context of paradigm shifts in ecology and applied ecology. I identified three conceptual shifts-toward a systems view, toward the inclusion of humans in the ecosystem, and toward participatory approaches to ecosystem management-that are interrelated and pertain to an understanding of ecosystems as complex adaptive systems in which humans are an integral part. Second, I investigated the feasibility of CBC, as informed by a number of emerging interdisciplinary fields that have been pursuing various aspects of coupled systems of humans and nature. These fields-common property, traditional ecological knowledge, environmental ethics, political ecology, and environmental history-provide insights for CBC. They may contribute to the development of an interdisciplinary conservation science with a more sophisticated understanding of social-ecological interactions. The lessons from these fields include the importance of cross-scale conservation, adaptive comanagement, the question of incentives and multiple stakeholders, the use of traditional ecological knowledge, and development of a cross-cultural conservation ethic. 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Inst Nacl Ecol, Unidad Cooperac & Convenios Int, Mexico City 01040, DF, Mexico. RP Magana, V, Univ Nacl Autonoma Mexico, Ctr Ciencias Atmosfera, Ciudad Univ,Circuito Exterior, Mexico City 04510, DF, Mexico. AB Current climate and climate change scenarios are the basis for climate change vulnerability and adaptation studies. Comparison between the current situation and the one that would prevail under climate change conditions allows for the identification of vulnerable regions and the quantification of vulnerability. This may be done by evaluating the land area adversely affected by climate change (e.g. with reduction in agricultural yields or decrease in the level of water reservoirs). Specific regionalization criteria and methods based on physical considerations should be applied in the development of regional climate scenarios. This is the principle followed in studies using analogue scenarios. A methodology based on the direct interpolation of general circulation model (GCM) outputs to the study region under 1xCO(2) and 2xCO(2) conditions may be used as a first approach for the development of climate change scenarios. That methodology was applied in this study in order to be consistent with the assessments performed by more than 50 countries involved in the U.S. Country Studies Program and to allow for the comparison and integration of the results from several countries. However, an alternative methodology based on multiple regression was also applied by the Scenario task group of the Mexico Country Study. This methodology is considered to be more appropriate for regionalization purposes. CR ADEM J, 1982, GEOFIS INT, V21, P229 CONDE C, 1994, ESCENARIOS BASICOS R, P39 CONDE C, 1995, ESCENARIOS BASICOS R, P101 MAGANA V, 1994, STRATEGY DETERMINE R, P45 MAGANA V, 1995, ESCENARIOS FISICOS C, P93 NR 5 TC 3 J9 CLIMATE RES BP 107 EP 114 PY 1997 PD DEC 29 VL 9 IS 1-2 GA ZD200 UT ISI:000072661400017 ER PT J AU Nicholls, RJ TI Analysis of global impacts of sea-level rise: a case study of flooding SO PHYSICS AND CHEMISTRY OF THE EARTH LA English DT Article C1 Middlesex Univ, Flood Hazard Res Ctr, Enfield EN3 4SF, Middx, England. RP Nicholls, RJ, Middlesex Univ, Flood Hazard Res Ctr, Enfield EN3 4SF, Middx, England. AB Analysis of the response to climate change and sea-level rise requires a link from climate change science to the resulting impacts and their policy implications. This paper explores the impacts of sea-level rise, particularly increased coastal flooding due to storm surges. In particular, it asks the simple question "how,much will projected global sea-level rise exacerbate coastal flood problems, if ignored?" This is an important question to the intergovernmental process considering climate change. Further many countries presently ignore sea-level rise in long-term coastal planning, even though global sea levels are presently slowly rising. Using the model of Nicholls et al. [Global Environmental Change 9 (1999) S69], the analysis. considers the flood impacts of sea-level rise on an "IS92a world" based on a consistent set of scenarios of global-mean sea-level rise, subsidence (where appropriate), coastal population change (usually increase), and flood defence standards (derived from GDP/capita). Two of the protection scenarios consider the possible upgrade of flood defences, but no allowance for global-mean sea-level rise is allowed to ensure consistency with the question being investigated. This model has been validated against national- and regional-scale assessments indicating that the relative results are reasonable, and the absolute results are of the right order of magnitude. The model estimates that 10 million people experienced flooding annually in 1990. It also predicts that the incidence of flooding will change without sea-level rise due to changes to the other three factors. Taking the full range of scenarios considered by 2100 the number of people flooded could be from 0.4 to 39 million/year. All the sea-level rise scenarios would cause an increase in flooding during the 21st century if measures to adapt to sea-level rise are not taken. However, there are significant uncertainties and the number of people who are estimated to experience flooding in 2100 is 16-388 million for the mid (55-cm) global-mean sea-level rise scenarios, and up to 510 million people/year for the high (96-cm) scenario. These results suggest that sea-level rise could be a significant problem if it is ignored, and hence it needs to be considered within the policy process considering climate change in terms of mitigation (reducing greenhouse gas emissions) and adaptation (improved coastal management and planning) needs. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. 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EDRC, Cape Town, South Africa. ENDA TM, Dakar, Senegal. UFRJ, COPPE, PPE, LIMA, Rio De Janeiro, Brazil. Indira Gandhi Inst Dev Res, New Delhi, India. BCAS, Dhaka, Bangladesh. RP Beg, N, World Bank, Washington, DC 20433 USA. AB Climate change does not yet feature prominently within the environmental or economic policy agendas of developing countries. Yet evidence shows that some of the most adverse effects of climate change will be in developing countries, where populations are most vulnerable and least likely to easily adapt to climate change, and that climate change will affect the potential for development in these countries. Some synergies already exist between climate change policies and the sustainable development agenda in developing countries, such as energy efficiency, renewable energy, transport and sustainable land-use policies. Despite limited attention from policy-makers to date, climate change policies could have significant ancillary benefits for the local environment. The reverse is also true as local and national policies to address congestion, air quality, access to energy services and energy diversity may also limit GHG emissions. Nevertheless there could be significant trade-offs associated with deeper levels of mitigation in some countries, for example where developing countries are dependent on indigenous coal and may be required to switch to cleaner yet more expensive fuels to limit emissions. The distributional impacts of such policies are an important determinant of their feasibility and need to be considered up-front. It follows that future agreements on mitigation and adaptation under the convention will need to recognise the diverse situations of developing countries with respect to their level of economic development, their vulnerability to climate change and their ability to adapt or mitigate. Recognition of how climate change is likely to influence other development priorities may be a first Step toward building cost-effective strategies and integrated, institutional capacity in developing countries to respond to climate change. Opportunities may also exist in developing countries to use regional economic organisations to assist in the design of integrated responses and to exploit synergies between climate change and other policies such as those designed to combat desertification and preserve biodiversity. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *ADB, 1994, CLIM CHANG AS SR LAN *CHAMB MIN S AFR, 1999, STAT TABL 1999 *IEA, 2001, KEY WROLD EN STAT IE *IPCC, 1996, CLIM CHANG 1995 *IPCC, 1996, CONTR WORK GROUP 1 2 *IPCC, 2000, SPEC REP IPCC WORK G *IPCC, 2001, IPCC 3 ASS REP S YNT *IPCC, 2001, REP WORK GROUP 2 INT *MCT, 1997, PROP EL PROT UNFCCC *OECD, 2000, CLIM I RFF WRI *OECD, 2001, OECD ENV OUTL *OECD, 2001, SUST DEV CRIT ISS *UN, 2000, BETT WORLD ALL PROGR ALCAMO J, 1998, GLOBAL CHANGE SCENAR BANUR TK, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995 BAUMERT K, 1999, WHAT MIGHT DEV COUNT BERK MM, 2001, CONTROLLING CLIMATE DAVIDSON O, 2002, CLIMATE CHANGE SUSTA DAVIS D, 2000, P IPCC COSP WORKSH R DENTON F, 2000, CLIMATE CHANGE SUSTA DESSUS O, 1999, 156 OECD DEV CTR EBERHARD A, 1995, POVERTY POWER ENERGY KIKER GA, 2000, SYNTHESIS REPORT VUL KUMAR KSK, 1997, WORKSH MEAS IMP CLIM KUMAR KSK, 1998, 402 WORLD BANK LAROVERE EL, 2002, CLIMATE CHANGE SUSTA MUNASINGHE M, 2000, CLIMATE CHANGE ITS I MUNASINGHE M, 2001, INT J GLOBAL ENV ISS, V5, P13 OCONNOR D, 2000, P IPCC COSPONSORED W PARIKH J, 2000, J GLOBAL ENV ENG PARIKH J, 2002, CLIMATE CHANGE INDIA PHILIBERT C, CLIMATE POLICY, V1 RAHMAN AA, CLIMATE CHANGE SUSTA RAYNER S, 2000, P IPCC EXP M COL CLI RUFFINI A, 2000, AFR ENERGY, V2, P2 SHUKLA PR, 1998, IMPLICATIOSN EMISSIO TOL RSJ, 2000, MUCH DAMAGE WILL CLI TOTH FL, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, CH10 WAMUKONYA N, 1999, CONVENTION CLIMATE C WATSON R, 2000, P PRES R WATS IPCC 6 WINKLER H, 2001, WHAT COULD POTENTIAL YAMIN F, 1999, REV EUROPEAN COMMUNI, V8 YOHE GW, 2000, P IPCC EXP M CLIM CH NR 43 TC 5 J9 CLIM POLICY BP 129 EP 144 PY 2002 PD SEP VL 2 IS 2-3 GA 626TB UT ISI:000179888400002 ER PT J AU Korf, B TI Livelihoods at risk: Coping strategies of war-affected communities in Sri Lanka SO JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURE AND RURAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE TROPICS AND SUBTROPICS LA English DT Article C1 Univ Bonn, D-5300 Bonn, Germany. Humboldt Univ, Zentrum Entwicklunsforsch, Fachgebiet Ressourcenokon, D-1086 Berlin, Germany. RP Korf, B, Univ Bonn, D-5300 Bonn, Germany. AB Rural societies in war-affected areas can be described as 'distressed livelihoods': they experience a dramatic increase in risk and uncertainty. How does this affect land use and agricultural coping strategies of small-scale farm households? This was the key research question of a multi-disciplinary, comparative village study carried out in the war-torn areas of Sri Lanka. The study employed the analytical framework of rural livelihoods promoted by DFID. In addition, theoretical models of risk management were instrumental in illustrating behavioural patterns of households in the war zones. The study shows that changed patterns of mobility are a key response of people to adjust to the risk-prone environment. These strategies place heavy demands on the extended family network. Furthermore, access to and priority claims for resources are critical in determining differences in livelihood strategies in different communities. Limited accessibility to natural resources due to war restricts the freedom of livelihood options. Many adapting strategies of farm households thus reflect the declining entitlements to resources due to war and violence. Households gradually deplete their capital stock after each political crisis. Investment in sustainable land management is not rational for farm households that are uncertain about future developments affecting the fundamentals of their lives. Households therefore employ risk minimisation strategies to downsize possible losses and focus on cash earning (especially from overseas employment) and/or state welfare for survival. CR *BMZ, 1998, INT FOOD SEC PROGR G *DFID, 1999, SUST LIV GUID SHEETS *GTZ, 1998, DEV OR EM AID DEA BIERSCHENK T, 1988, SOCIOL RURALIS, V28, P146 BIGDON C, 2002, BERGHOF HDB CONFLICT BOHLE HG, 1993, FREIBURG STUDIES DEV, V1 CARNEY D, 1998, SUSTAINABLE RURAL LI CHAMBERS R, 1989, IDS B, V1, P1 GOODHAND J, 2000, NGOS PEACE BUILDING KORF B, 2001, SCHRIFTENREIHE SEMIN, P195 KORF B, 2002, GATEKEEPER SERIES, V106 OSULLIVAN M, 1997, OXFORD DEV STUD, V25, P95 SCOONES I, 1998, 72 IDS NR 13 TC 0 J9 J AGRIC RURAL DEV TROP SUBTRO BP 129 EP 141 PY 2003 VL 104 IS 2 GA 771DK UT ISI:000188770200002 ER PT J AU Mustafa, D TI Structural causes of vulnerability to flood hazard in Pakistan SO ECONOMIC GEOGRAPHY LA English DT Article C1 Univ Colorado, Dept Geog, Boulder, CO 80309 USA. RP Mustafa, D, Univ Colorado, Dept Geog, Boulder, CO 80309 USA. AB This paper uses recent theoretical advances in the field of hazards research to inform the analysis of an empirical study on flood hazard conducted in central Pakistan. The investigation seeks to understand the causes of vulnerability and their development that culminates in disaster, with the basic presumption that empirical events have causal links going back to societal structures which are not measurable but contain the mechanisms that lead to the events and their perceptions. A case study in five villages of central Pakistan was conducted to understand the elements of communities' and social groups' differential vulnerability to flood hazard. The elements of vulnerability are situated within a tripartite conceptual space of vulnerability, composed of entitlement relations, empowerment relations, and political economy. A modified "pressure and release" model was applied to the field survey results to understand the progression of vulnerability from the structural abstract level to the concrete level of physical disasters. I concluded that the study communities' vulnerability was largely a function of their disempowerment. CR *GOVT PAK PLANN CO, 1989, 15 YEAR PLAN 1988 93 *NESPAK HARZ ENG, 1979, FED FLOOD PROT PLAN *PATT TRAQQ TANZ, 1993, P OXF PATT DIS PREP *UN, 1994, HUM DEV REP 1994 *WCED, 1987, OUR COMM FUT *WORLD BANK, 1993, WORLD DEV REP 1993 I ANDERSON M, 1989, RISING ASHES DEV STR BLAIKIE PM, 1994, RISK NATURAL HAZARDS, V1, P1 BURTON I, 1978, ENV HAZARD, V1, P1 BURTON I, 1993, ENV HAZARD CHAMBERS R, 1989, IDS B, V20, P1 DOVE MR, 1994, ETHNOLOGY, V33, P331 EMEL J, 1989, NEW MODELS GEOGRAPHY, V1, P49 GILMARTIN D, 1994, J ASIAN STUD, V53, P1127 HEWITT K, 1983, INTERPRETATIONS CALA IRESON RW, 1991, STUDIES WATER POLICY, V17 KATES RW, 1971, ECON GEOGR, V47, P438 KATES RW, 1986, GEOGRAPHY RESOURCES, V1 KOTLYAKOV VM, 1988, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V85, P5986 KUSLER J, 1993, ENV, V35, P6 MILETI DS, 1995, ENV PROFESSIONAL, V17, P117 NAQVI HM, 1992, RURALISTICS PAKISTAN PALM RS, 1990, NATURAL HAZARDS INTE PLATT RH, 1986, GEOGRAPHY RESOURCES, V1, P28 SAYER A, 1992, METHOD SOCIAL SCI SILVERMAN D, 1989, QUAL QUANT, P57 SUSMAN P, 1983, INTERPRETATIONS CALA, P263 SWIFT J, 1989, IDS B, V20, P8 WATTS MJ, 1993, PROG HUM GEOG, V17, P43 WHITE GF, 1974, NATURAL HAZARDS LOCA, P3 WISNER B, 1993, WORLDS PAIN HUNGER G, P13 ZAIDI A, 1988, POLITICAL EC HTH PAK NR 32 TC 2 J9 ECON GEOGR BP 289 EP 305 PY 1998 PD JUL VL 74 IS 3 GA 119XR UT ISI:000075924200005 ER PT J AU Baptista, SR Rudel, TK TI A re-emerging Atlantic forest? Urbanization, industrialization and the forest transition in Santa Catarina, southern Brazil SO ENVIRONMENTAL CONSERVATION LA English DT Article C1 Rutgers State Univ, Dept Human Ecol, New Brunswick, NJ 08901 USA. Rutgers State Univ, Dept Geog, Piscataway, NJ 08854 USA. RP Rudel, TK, Rutgers State Univ, Dept Human Ecol, 55 Dudley Rd, New Brunswick, NJ 08901 USA. AB During the second half of the twentieth century, southern Brazil underwent rapid industrialization and urbanization. In earlier historical periods in Europe and North America, these trends have contributed to a forest transition in which deforestation gives way to forestation. In a developing country, like Brazil, with a more skewed income distribution and a larger rural underclass, industrialization and urbanization may not give rise to a forest transition. These competing theoretical expectations were tested with data on forest cover change from the Brazilian censuses of 1970 through 1995/1996 for the state of Santa Catarina in southern Brazil. The analyses show forestation replacing deforestation between 1975 and 1980. An increase in the extent of planted forests close to urban areas explains the turnaround in forest cover trends. Because the planted forests contain relatively few native plant species, the expansion of these forests does not ease the biodiversity crisis. The re-emerging second Atlantic forest represents a smaller, less diverse and degraded version of the first Atlantic forest. CR *BANC REG DES EXTR, 2003, FLOR REG SUL BRAS UM *CRIT EC PARTN FUN, 2001, EC PROF ATL FOR BIOD *FUND SOS MAT ATL, 1998, ATL EV REM FLOR EC A *IBGE, 1974, CENS AGR 1970 8 REC *IBGE, 1974, CENS DEM 1970 *IBGE, 1979, CENS AGR 1975 CENS E *IBGE, 1983, CENS AGR 1980 9 REC *IBGE, 1983, CENS DEM 1980 *IBGE, 1990, CENS AGR 1985 CENS E *IBGE, 1996, CENS DEM 1991 *IBGE, 1998, CENS AGR 1995 96 *SBS, 2001, AR PLANT PIN EUC BRA BACHA CJC, 2003, APPL ECON, V35, P631 BACHA CJC, 2003, OXFORD DEV STUDIES, V31, P197 BEHLING H, 1995, VEG HIST ARCHAEOBOT, V4, P127 CARUSO M, 1990, DESMATOMENTO ILHA SA CARUSO M, 1992, GEOSUL, V14, P79 DEAN W, 1995, BROADAX FIREBRAND DE DEJANVRY A, 1981, AGRARIAN QUESTION RE DIEGUES AC, 1995, 1 UNESCO EIDT RC, 1971, PIONEER SETTLEMENT N GALINDOLEAL C, 2003, ATLANTIC FOREST S AM HELFAND SM, 2000, 7 NEMESIS SEM IPEA R HERING K, 1984, INSULA, V14, P162 KATES RW, 2001, SCIENCE, V292, P641 KLEIN RM, 1978, MAPA FITOGEOGRAFICO KLEIN RM, 1980, SELLOWIA, V32, P11 KLEIN RM, 1981, SELLOWIA, V33, P5 KLOOSTER DJ, 2003, PROF GEOGR, V55, P227 KOOP G, 2001, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V11, P193 LAGO PF, 2000, SANTA CATARINA TRANS LUGO AE, 1997, FOREST ECOL MANAG, V99, P9 MARCELINO EV, 2003, GEOGRAFIA, V28, P225 MARGOLIS M, 1973, MOVING FRONTIER SOCI MATHER AS, 1998, AREA, V30, P117 MATHER AS, 1999, J RURAL STUD, V15, P65 MATHER AS, 2000, ENVIRON HIST, V6, P399 MEYERSTAMER JM, 1999, B LATIN AM RES, V18, P451 MYERS N, 2000, NATURE, V403, P853 PELUSO VA, 1979, REV I HIST GEOGRAFIC, V3, P103 PELUSO VA, 1984, REV I HIST GEOGR SAN, V3, P259 PELUSO VA, 1991, ESTUDOS GEOGRAFIA UR PEREIRA RMF, 2003, GEOSUL, V18, P99 PERZ SG, 2003, SOC NATUR RESOUR, V16, P277 RUDEL TK, 2002, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V92, P87 RUDEL TK, 2005, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V15, P23 SANTACATARINA, 2000, AN EST EST SANT CAT STOKES RG, 1990, AM SOCIOL REV, V55, P63 VIBRANS AC, 2003, 11 ENC SOC BRAS SENS, P611 VIBRANS AC, 2004, GEOSUL, V19, P99 NR 50 TC 0 J9 ENVIRON CONSERV BP 195 EP 202 PY 2006 PD SEP VL 33 IS 3 GA 104MN UT ISI:000241962600004 ER PT J AU COHEN, SJ TI BRINGING THE GLOBAL WARMING ISSUE CLOSER TO HOME - THE CHALLENGE OF REGIONAL IMPACT STUDIES SO BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY LA English DT Article RP COHEN, SJ, CANADIAN CLIMATE CTR,ATMOSPHER ENVIRONM SERV,DOWNSVIEW M3H 5T4,ONTARIO,CANADA. CR 1979, P WORLD CLIMATE C GE 1986, 1985 INT C ASS ROL C 1987, 1987 M EXP SENS WAT 1988, 1988 C P TOR 1989, 1ST US CAN S IMP CLI ARTHUR LM, 1988, CCD8801 CAN CLIM CTR BOLIN B, 1986, GREENHOUSE EFFECT CL BROWN R, 1986, 8614 ATM ENV SERV CA BUTZER KW, 1980, PROF GEOGR, V32, P269 CHEN RS, 1987, RR877 INT I APPL SYS CLARK WC, 1985, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V7, P5 COHEN SJ, 1986, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V8, P135 COHEN SJ, 1987, IAHS PUBL, V168, P489 COHEN SJ, 1988, J CLIMATE, V1, P669 COHEN SJ, 1989, 899 NAT HYDR RES CTR CROLEY TE, 1989, POTENTIAL EFFECTS GL DICKINSON RE, 1989, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V15, P383 GATES WL, 1985, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V7, P267 GIORGI F, 1989, 6TH P C APPL CLIM CH, P201 GLANTZ MH, 1987, CLIMATE CRISIS SOC I GLANTZ MH, 1988, SOC RESPONSES REGION GLANTZ MH, 1989, 1989 C HUM DEM NAT R GLEICK PH, 1987, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V10, P137 GOODISON BE, 1986, CORRECTION PRECIPITA GOODISON BE, 1989, IAHS PUBL, V179 GROTCH SL, 1988, DOENBB0084 US DEP EN JAEGER J, 1988, WMOTD225 WORLD MET O JAGER J, 1983, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V5, P39 JONES PD, 1989, J CLIMATE, V2, P285 KARL TR, 1989, B AM METEOROL SOC, V70, P265 KATES RW, 1985, CLIMATE IMPACT ASSES KELLOGG WW, 1977, WMO156 WORLD MET ORG KELLOGG WW, 1981, CLIMATE CHANGE SOC KELLOGG WW, 1987, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V10, P113 KELLOGG WW, 1988, J CLIMATE, V1, P348 LAMB PJ, 1987, B AM METEOROL SOC, V68, P1116 LEWIS JE, 1989, CANADIAN WATER RESOU, V14, P34 MARCHAND D, 1988, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V12, P107 MEARNS LO, 1989, POTENTIAL EFFECTS GL MITCHELL JFB, 1989, REV GEOPHYS, V27, P115 MUNN RE, 1979, CARBON DIOXIDE ISSUE, P19 PALUTIKOF JP, 1984, DOEEV100985 US DEP E PALUTIKOF JP, 1987, IAHS PUBL, V168, P585 PARRY ML, 1987, ASSESSMENT CLIMATE I, V1 RIEBSAME WE, 1988, ASSESSING SOCIAL IMP ROBINSON PJ, 1989, STRATEGIES DEV CLIMA SCHLESINGER ME, 1987, REV GEOPHYS, V25, P760 SCHNEIDER SH, 1989, SCIENCE, V243, P771 SEVRUK B, 1986, 1985 P INT WORKSH CO SMIT B, 1989, CCD8901 ENV CAN ATM SMIT B, 1989, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V14, P153 SMITH JB, 1989, POTENTIAL EFFECTS GL SONKA ST, 1987, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V11, P291 TIMMERMANN P, 1989, 1ST US CAN S IMP CLI WEBB T, 1987, GEOLOGY N AM K, V3 WILLIAMS GDV, 1987, ASSESSMENT CLIMATE I, V1 WONG RKW, 1989, STRATEGY ADAPTING CL NR 57 TC 34 J9 BULL AMER METEOROL SOC BP 520 EP 526 PY 1990 PD APR VL 71 IS 4 GA CZ526 UT ISI:A1990CZ52600005 ER PT J AU Jallow, BP Toure, S Barrow, MMK Mathieu, AA TI Coastal zone of The Gambia and the Abidjan region in Cote d'Ivoire: sea level rise vulnerability, response strategies, and adaptation options SO CLIMATE RESEARCH LA English DT Article C1 Dept Water Resources, Banjul, Gambia. Ecole Super Travaux Publ, Yamoussoukro, Cote Ivoire. Natl Environm Agcy, Banjul, Gambia. Univ Cocody, Dept Phys, Abidjan, Cote Ivoire. RP Jallow, BP, Dept Water Resources, 7 Marina Parade, Banjul, Gambia. AB The aerial videotape-assisted vulnerability analysis (AVVA) technique was combined with various data sets to assess the vulnerability of the coastal zone of The Gambia to sea level rise. Land loss due to inundation, flooding, and erosion was estimated. Costs of damage and population at risk were also evaluated. Only historical data and maps were used to assess the vulnerability of the coastal zone of the Abidjan region of Cote d'Ivoire to sea level rise. Results show that with a 1 m sea level rise the whole of the capital city of Banjul will be under mean sea level in the next 50 to 60 yr as a greater part of the city is below 1 m. The mangrove systems on St. Mary's Island, Kombo St. Mary, and the strand plains in the north bank will be inundated. About 1950 billion Dalasis (US $217 million) worth of land will be lost. The most appropriate response would be to protect the whole of the coastline of Banjul, the shoreline area from the Banjul cemeteries to Laguna Beach Hotel, the infrastructure at Sarro, and the hotel complex at Cape Point. Innovative sand management, repair of the damaged groins, and construction of dikes, breakwater structures, revetments, and low-cost seawall are some of the shoreline stabilization and hardening techniques suggested for the protection of this area. For the Abidjan region, the same response strategies should be used. Adaptation responses identified for both regions include public awareness, increase in height of coastal infrastructure, urban growth planning, wetland preservation and mitigation, and development of a coastal zone management plan. CR *IPCC, 1990, RESP STRAT AD ASS RE *PAA, 1996, PORT AUT AB UN REF A ABE J, 1995, AT GEST INT ZON LITT BLIVI A, 1993, COASTLINES W AFRICA DELOR C, 1992, MEMOIRE, V4 DENNIS KC, 1995, J COASTAL RES, V14, P243 HANDS EB, 1983, HDB COASTAL PROCESSE, P167 JALLOW BP, 1996, CLIMATE RES, V6, P165 LEATHERMAN SP, 1995, J COASTAL RES, V14, P15 NICHOLLS RJ, 1995, J COASTAL RES, V14, P26 PEPPER W, 1992, EMISSIONS SCENARIOS QUELENNEC RE, 1988, IDENTIFICATION COAST NR 12 TC 0 J9 CLIMATE RES BP 129 EP 136 PY 1999 PD AUG 27 VL 12 IS 2-3 GA V3096 UT ISI:000171723000010 ER PT J AU Greenberg, MR Lahr, M Mantell, N TI Understanding the economic costs and benefits of catastrophes and their aftermath: A review and suggestions for the U.S. federal government SO RISK ANALYSIS LA English DT Review C1 Rutgers State Univ, Edward J Bloustein Sch Planning & Publ Policy, New Brunswick, NJ 08901 USA. RP Greenberg, MR, Rutgers State Univ, Edward J Bloustein Sch Planning & Publ Policy, 33 Livingston Ave,Suite 100, New Brunswick, NJ 08901 USA. AB The number and magnitude of devastating natural and human events make it imperative that we actively and systematically estimate the costs and benefits of policy decisions in affected localities, regions, states, and nations. Such strategic risk management preparedness efforts should forecast well into the future and include scenarios with and without enhanced engineered structures; with reduced vulnerability through land-use planning and design; with the impact of resiliency and mitigation; with evacuation and relocation; and with the costs and benefits of recovery and restoration. We describe different kinds of regional economic models that can be used in these preparedness planning efforts, explore critical data needs, and advocate a shared federal-state-local strategic planning effort to accomplish the objective. 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Climate change scenarios and impacts on irrigation water supply simulated with the HUMUS model SO AGRICULTURAL AND FOREST METEOROLOGY LA English DT Article C1 Univ Maryland, Pacific NW Natl Lab, Joint Global Change Res Inst, College Pk, MD 20740 USA. Independent Project Anal Inc, Reston, VA 20190 USA. RP Rosenberg, NJ, Univ Maryland, Pacific NW Natl Lab, Joint Global Change Res Inst, 8400 Baltimore Ave, College Pk, MD 20740 USA. AB In response to a congressional mandate, the US Global Change Research Program organized a National Assessment of Climate Change focusing on geographic regions (e.g. Alaska, Great Plains) and sectors (e.g. public health, agriculture, water resources). This paper describes methodology and results of a study by researchers at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory contributing to the water sector analysis. The subsequent paper makes use of the water supply results to estimate the climate change impacts on irrigated agriculture. The vulnerability of water resources in the conterminous US to climate changes in 10-year periods centered on 2030 and 2095 as. projected by the Hadley/United Kingdom Meteorological Office (UKMO) general circulation model (GCM; HadCM2) were modeled using the Hydrologic Unit Model for the United States (HUMUS). HUMUS, a biophysically based hydrology model, consists of a Geographical Information System (GIS) that provides data on soils, land use and climate to drive the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). The modeling was done at the scale of the eight-digit United States Geological Survey (USGS) Hydrologic Unit Area (HUA) of which there are 2101 in the conterminous US. Results are aggregated to the four- and two-digit (major water resource region, MWRR) scales for various purposes. Daily records of maximum/minimum temperature and precipitation (PPT) from 1961 to 1990 provided the baseline climate. Water yields (WY), used as a measure of water supply for irrigation, increases from the 1961-1990 baseline period over most of the US in 2030 and 2095. In 2030, WY increases in the western US and decreases in the central and southeast regions. Notably, WY increases by 139 turn (35%) from baseline in the Pacific Northwest. Driven by higher temperatures and reduced precipitation, WY is projected to decrease in the Lower Mississippi and Texas Gulf basins. The HadCM2 (2095) scenario projects a climate significantly wetter than baseline, resulting in water yield increases of 38% on average. Water yield increases are projected to be significant throughout the eastern US-39% in the Ohio basin, for example. Water yields increase significantly in the western US, as well-57 and 76% in the Upper and Lower Colorado, respectively. Climate change also affects the seasonality of the hydrologic cycle. Early snowmelt is induced in western basins, leading to dramatically increased water yields in late winter and early spring. The simulations were run at current (365 ppm) and elevated (560 ppm) atmospheric CO2 concentrations [CO2] to account for the potential impacts of the 'CO2-fertilization' effect. The effects of climate change scenario were considerably greater than those due to elevated [CO2] but the latter, overalls decreased losses and augmented increases in water yield. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. CR *USDA SCS, 1972, NAT ENG HDB, CH4 *USGS, 1987, 2294 USGS *USNAST, 1998, US NAT ASS OV NAT AS ARNOLD JG, 1992, THESIS PURDUE U W LA ARNOLD JG, 1996, J HYDROL, V176, P57 ARNOLD JG, 1998, J AM WATER RESOUR AS, V34, P1 ARNOLD JG, 1999, J AM WATER RESOUR AS, V35, P1037 ARNOLD JG, 2000, J HYDROL, V227, P21 ASTON AR, 1984, J HYDROL, V67, P273 BROWN RA, 1999, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V41, P73 FLASCHKA I, 1987, WATER RESOUR BULL, V23, P47 GERBERT WA, 1987, AVERAGE ANN RUNOFF U GLEICK PH, 1988, POLICY SCI, V21, P23 GLEICK PH, 1989, REV GEOPHYS, V27, P329 IDSO SB, 1984, NATURE, V312, P51 IZAURRALDE RC, 2003, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V117, P97 JARVIS PG, 1991, ADV ECOL RES, V15, P1 JOHNS TC, 1997, CLIM DYNAM, V13, P103 KIMBALL BA, 1999, WATER RESOUR RES, V35, P1179 KIRSHEN PH, 1995, J WATER RES PL-ASCE, V121, P61 KITTEL TGF, 1997, P 10 C APPL CLIM 20, P219 KWADIJK J, 1995, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V30, P379 LETTENMAIER DP, 1999, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V43, P537 MATHER JR, 1984, WATER RESOURCES DIST MCNAUGHTON KG, 1991, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V54, P279 MITCHELL JFB, 1995, NATURE, V376, P501 REEK T, 1992, B AM METEOROL SOC, V73, P753 REVELLE RR, 1983, CHANGING CLIMATE, P419 RICHARDSON CW, 1990, USDA TECHNICAL B, V1768 ROSENBERG NJ, 1990, CLIMATE CHANGE US WA, P151 ROSENBERG NJ, 1999, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V42, P677 SHARMA KP, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V47, P117 SKILES JW, 1994, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V26, P377 SRINIVASAN R, 1993, ADV HYDRO SCI ENG STOCKLE CO, 1992, AGR SYST, V38, P225 STOCKLE CO, 1992, AGR SYST, V38, P239 STOCKTON CW, 1979, GEOPHYSICAL IMPLICAT STRZEPEK KM, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V46, P339 VOROSMARTY CJ, 2000, SCIENCE, V289, P284 WAGGONER PE, 1990, CLIMATE CHANGE US WA, P19 WIGLEY TML, 1985, NATURE, V314, P149 WOLOCK DM, 1991, J FORECASTING, V10, P105 WOLOCK DM, 1993, WATER RESOUR BULL, V29, P475 WOLOCK DM, 1999, CLIMATE RES, V11, P149 NR 44 TC 1 J9 AGR FOREST METEOROL BP 73 EP 96 PY 2003 PD JUN 30 VL 117 IS 1-2 GA 681CT UT ISI:000183019900005 ER PT J AU Agnew, C TI Drought, desertification and desiccation: The need for further analysis SO GEOGRAPHY LA English DT Article C1 Univ Manchester, Sch Geog, Manchester M13 9PL, Lancs, England. RP Agnew, C, Univ Manchester, Sch Geog, Oxford Rd, Manchester M13 9PL, Lancs, England. AB The world's drylands are widely reported to be suffering from the effects of drought, desertification and degradation. The impacts of these environmental hazards is often acknowledged to be global and yet their occurrence and intensity is rarely rigorously assessed at a local level. This article seeks to understand the true nature of drought, desertification and desiccation and in doing so suggests that we need to be more careful how we present environmental change in drylands where spatial variability of both environmental and social systems has not been fully investigated detailed analysis of rainfalls in the Sabel region shows that in some areas notions of desiccation and persistent drought can be challenged and that alterations of raingauge networks during the twentieth century may have bad a significant impact on the climate record. CR *FAO UN, 2001, STAT DAT *IUCN, 1989, SAB STUD *NOAA, 2001, CLIM PRED CTR GLOB C *UNCED, 1992, UN C ENV DEV EARTH S *UNCED, 2002, FAT SHEET CONV COMB *UNEP, 1992, WORLD ATL DES AGNEW C, 1990, J ARID ENVIRON, V18, P279 AGNEW C, 1996, J ARID ENVIRON, V33, P309 AGNEW CT, 1989, INT J CLIMATOL, V9, P371 AGNEW CT, 1992, WATER RESOUCES ARID AGNEW CT, 1995, PEOPLE ENV AFRICA, P137 AGNEW CT, 1999, GEOJOURNAL, V48, P299 AGNEW CT, 2001, LINKING CLIMATE CHAN, P27 ARCHIBOLD OW, 1995, ECOLOGY WORLD VEGETA BA MB, 1995, J APPL METEOROL, V34, P411 BERAN MA, 1985, STUDIES REPORTS HYDR, V39 BINNS T, 1990, GEOGRAPHY, V75, P106 BLEY J, 1991, IAHS PUBLICATION, V199, P571 BOLIN B, 1991, GREENHOUSE EFFECT CL CARDY F, 1993, DESERTIFICATION CONT, V22, P4 CHAPPELL A, 2001, LAND DEGRADATION, P19 COPANS J, 1983, INTERPRETATIONS CALA, P83 DAMATO N, 1998, INT J CLIMATOL, V18, P955 DAVY EG, 1976, 9 WMO DRACUP JA, 1980, WATER RESOUR RES, V16, P297 FRANKE F, 1980, SEEDS FAMINE GARCIA RV, 1981, DROUGHT MAN GLANTZ M, 1976, POLITICS NATURAL DIS GLANTZ M, 1987, DROUGHT HUNGER AFRIC GLANTZ M, 1994, DROUGH FOLLOWS PLOW GORDON AH, 1993, INT J CLIMATOL, V13, P497 GRAINGER A, 1990, THREATENING DESERT HISDAL H, 2001, INT J CLIMATOL, V21, P317 HULME M, 1992, INT J CLIMATOL, V12, P685 HULME M, 1993, ENVIRONMENT, V35, P39 HULME M, 1996, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V23, P61 HULME M, 2001, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V11, P19 KATES RW, 1986, GEOGRAPHY RESOURCES LAMB HH, 1974, ECOLOGIST, V4, P10 LEHOUEROU HN, 1996, J ARID ENVIRON, V34, P133 MAINGUET M, 1991, DESERTIFICAION NATUR MAINGUET M, 1999, ARIDITY DROUGHTS HUM MORTIMORE MJ, 1995, PEOPLE ENV AFRICA, P69 NICHOLSON SE, 1993, INT J CLIMATOL, V13, P371 NORSE D, 1994, FOOD POLICY, V19, P113 ODINGO RS, 1992, DESERTIFICATION CONT, V21, P6 OLSSON L, 1993, AMBIO, V22, P395 PRITCHARD JM, 1990, AFRICA RAYNAUT C, 1997, SOC NATURE SABEL RINS HJ, 1998, ARID FRONTIER, P97 SCHLESINGER WH, 2002, NCY GLOBAL CHANGE, P253 SIVAKUMAR MVK, 1991, IAHS PUBL, V199, P3 THOMAS DSG, 1993, GEOGR J, V159, P318 TOULMIN C, 1993, 42 INT I ENV DEV WARREN A, 1988, ASSESSMENT DESERTIFI WARREN A, 1992, ASSESSMENT DESERTIFI WARREN A, 1998, ARID FRONTIER, P117 WATSON RT, 1998, REGIONAL IMPACTS CLI, V1, P1 WIJKMAN A, 1985, ECOLOGIST, V15, P9 WILHITE DA, 2000, DROUGHT GLOBAL ASSES, P3 WILHITE DA, 2001, P EXP GROUP M HELD S WINSTANLEY D, 1973, NATURE, V245, P190 ZHENG XY, 1998, J CLIMATE, V11, P2078 NR 63 TC 0 J9 GEOGRAPHY BP 256 EP 267 PY 2002 PD JUL VL 87 GA 576CW UT ISI:000176986100009 ER PT J AU Pyke, CR Marty, J TI Cattle grazing mediates climate change impacts on ephemeral wetlands SO CONSERVATION BIOLOGY LA English DT Article C1 Natl Ctr Ecol Anal & Synth, Santa Barbara, CA 93101 USA. Nature Conservancy, Cosumnes River Preserve, Galt, CA 95632 USA. RP Pyke, CR, US EPA, Global Change Res Program, ORD, MC 8601 N,1200 Penn Ave NW, Washington, DC 20460 USA. AB Climate change impacts depend in large part on land-management decisions; interactions between global changes and local resource management, however, rarely have been quantified. We used a combination of experimental manipulations and simulation modeling to investigate the effects of interactions between cattle grazing and regional climate change on vernal pool communities. Data from a grazing exclosure study indicated that 3 years after the removal of grazing, ungrazed vernal pools dried an average of 50 days per year earlier than grazed control pools. Modeling showed that regional climate change could also alter vernal pool hydrology. Increased temperatures and winter precipitation were predicted to increase periods of inundation. We evaluated the ecological implications of interactions between grazing and climate change for branchiopods and the California tiger salamander (Ambystoma californiense) at four sites spanning a latitudinal climate gradient. Grazing played an important role in maintaining the suitability of vernal pool hydrological conditions for fairy shrimp and salamander reproduction. The ecological importance of the interaction varied nonlinearly across the region. Our results show that grazing can confound hydrologic changes driven by climate change and play a critical role in maintaining the hydrologic suitability of vernal pools for endangered aquatic invertebrates and amphibians. These observations suggest an important limitation of impact assessments of climate change based on experiments in unmanaged ecosystems. The biophysical impacts of land management may be critical for understanding the vulnerability of ecological systems to climate change. CR 1994, FED REG, V59, P48136 2003, FED REG, V50, P28648 *FAO, 2003, STAT DAT ACKERLY DD, 2003, INT J PLANT SCI S, V164, S165 ASNER GP, 2004, ANNU REV ENV RESOUR, V29, P261 BARBOUR M, 1990, TERRESTIAL VEGETATIO BREMER DJ, 2001, AGRON J, V93, P338 DANIEL JA, 2002, T ASAE, V45, P1911 FLEISCHNER TL, 1994, CONSERV BIOL, V8, P629 FREILICH JE, 2003, BIOSCIENCE, V53, P759 GERHARDT F, 2003, J BIOGEOGR, V30, P1043 GERLANC NM, 2003, AM MIDL NAT, V150, P158 HANES T, 1998, ECOLOGY CONSERVATION, P38 HELM BP, 1998, ECOLOGY CONSERVATION, P124 HOLLAND RF, 1998, ECOLOGY CONSERVATION, P71 KALNAY E, 2003, NATURE, V423, P528 KING JL, 1996, HYDROBIOLOGIA, V328, P85 MARTY JT, 2005, CONSERV BIOL, V19, P1626 MILLER NL, 2003, J AM WATER RESOUR AS, V39, P771 MILLY PCD, 1994, J CLIMATE, V7, P506 MOREY SR, 1998, ECOLOGY CONSERVATION, P86 PIELKE RA, 2002, PHILOS T ROY SOC A, V260, P1705 PYKE CR, 2004, ECOL MODEL, V173, P109 PYKE CR, 2004, FRONT ECOL ENVIRON, V2, P178 PYKE CR, 2005, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V68, P199 PYKE CR, 2005, ECOSYSTEMS, V8, P95 ROY SB, 2002, J GEOPHYS RES-ATMOS, V107 SCHNEIDER DW, 1997, OECOLOGIA, V110, P567 SHAFFER HB, 2004, STATUS CONSERVATION, V2, P1093 SYNDER MA, 2002, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V29, P1 WAN S, 2002, GLOBAL CHANGE BIOL, V8, P754 NR 31 TC 1 J9 CONSERV BIOL BP 1619 EP 1625 PY 2005 PD OCT VL 19 IS 5 GA 968BW UT ISI:000232137900031 ER PT J AU Rajan, SC TI Automobility, liberalism, and the ethics of driving SO ENVIRONMENTAL ETHICS LA English DT Article C1 Tellus Inst, Boston, MA USA. RP Rajan, SC, Tellus Inst, 11 Arlington St, Boston, MA USA. AB Automobility. or the myriad institutions that foster car Culture, has rarely if ever been put under the lens of liberal political theory even though driving is one of the most common and widely accepted features of daily life in modern societies. When its implied promise of guaranteeing both freedom and equality is examined more closely, however, it appears that the ethical implications of driving may be darker than initially Supposed. Automobility may indeed be in violation of both the Kantian categorical imperative and Gewirth's principle of generic consistency, even though there has thus far been remarkably little ethical analysis to reveal these possibilities. It is conceivable that liberal political theory has turned a blind eye to automobility precisely because the latter has naturalized us into accepting what Roberto Unger has called a routine of "false necessity," so that driving is now virtually imperceptible as a social fact worthy of critical analysis. 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RP Bakkenes, M, Netherlands Environm Assessment Agcy, RIVM, MNP, POB 303, NL-3720 AH Bilthoven, Netherlands. AB With the use of goals from the Convention on Biological Diversity we evaluated two climate stabilisation profiles on their merits for conservation of biodiversity.. comparing them with a baseline profile. Focusing on plant ecosystems at the pan-European level, we concluded that although a maximum global-mean temperature increase of 2 degrees C is likely to be met in a 550 ppmv CO2-equivalent stabilisation profile, large areas of ecosystems in Europe will be affected. Most of the impacts manifest themselves in northern countries with a high net increase of plant species, and in Mediterranean countries, with a decrease in the number of plant species and stable area. Other impacts are less robust, given the regional variation in climate results for different climate models. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *EEA, 2004, 22004 EEA *IMAGE TEAM, 2001, CD ROM PUBL *IMAGE TEAM, 2001, RIVM CD ROM PUBL MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 *IPCC, 2001, CLIM CHANG 2001 MIT *UN, 2002, ACONF19920 UN *UNECE, 2003, 5 MIN C ENV EUR UNEC *UNEP, 2002, GLOB ENV OUTL, V3 *UNEP, 2004, CONV BIOL DIV ALCAMO J, 1998, GLOBAL CHANGE SCENAR ASCROFT R, 1994, NAMES AFE SPECIES BACHER A, 1998, CLIM DYNAM, V14, P431 BAKKENES M, 2002, GLOBAL CHANGE BIOL, V8, P390 BARNOSKY AD, 2004, SCIENCE, V306, P70 BEAUMONT LJ, 2002, GLOBAL CHANGE BIOL, V8, P954 BERK MM, 2001, KEEPING OUR OPTIONS BOER GJ, 2000, CLIM DYNAM, V16, P405 BOTH C, 2001, NATURE, V411, P296 COHEN J, 1960, EDUC PSYCHOL MEAS, V20, P37 EICKHOUT B, 2003, 728001026 RIVM NAT I ERASMUS BFN, 2002, GLOBAL CHANGE BIOL, V8, P679 HIRST AC, 1996, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V23, P3361 JALAS J, 1989, ATLAS FLORAE EUROPAE, V1 MCCARTY JP, 2001, CONSERV BIOL, V15, P320 MIDGLEY GF, 2002, GLOBAL ECOL BIOGEOGR, V11, P445 MITCHELL JFB, 1995, NATURE, V376, P501 MONSERUD RA, 1992, ECOL MODEL, V62, P275 NAKICENOVIC N, 2000, SPECIAL REPORT EMISS ONEILL BC, 2002, SCIENCE, V296, P1971 PARMESAN C, 2003, NATURE, V421, P37 PENUELAS J, 2002, GLOBAL CHANGE BIOL, V8, P531 PIMM SL, 2001, NATURE, V411, P531 POUNDS JA, 2004, NATURE, V427, P107 PRESTON CD, 2002, CHANGING FLORA UK ROOT TL, 2003, NATURE, V421, P57 ROY DB, 2000, GLOB CHANGE BIOL, V6, P407 THOMAS CD, 2001, NATURE, V411, P577 THOMAS CD, 2004, NATURE, V427, P145 TOWNSEND PA, 2002, NATURE, V416, P626 VANVUUREN DP, 2003, 728001025 RIVM NAT I WALTHER GR, 2002, NATURE, V416, P389 WALTHER GR, 2005, P ROY SOC B-BIOL SCI, V272, P1427 WILLIAMS JW, 2002, GEOLOGY, V30, P971 NR 43 TC 0 J9 GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANGE BP 19 EP 28 PY 2006 PD FEB VL 16 IS 1 GA 013QP UT ISI:000235424500004 ER PT J AU Adger, WN TI Institutional adaptation to environmental risk under the transition in Vietnam SO ANNALS OF THE ASSOCIATION OF AMERICAN GEOGRAPHERS LA English DT Article C1 Univ E Anglia, Sch Environm Sci, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. Univ E Anglia, Ctr Social & Econ Res Global Environ, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. RP Adger, WN, Univ E Anglia, Sch Environm Sci, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. AB This paper develops a theoretical perspective on institutional adaptation to social vulnerability to environmental risks. Institutions encompass both socialized ways of interacting and underlying worldviews, as well as structures and organizations that influence resource allocation The adaptation of institutions that mediate vulnerability to environmental change can be observed by examining actual resource allocations and the processes of decisionmaking and nondecisionmaking, as well as by examining changing perceptions of vulnerability. Institutional adaptation is evaluated in Nam Dinh Province in northern Vietnam, a country presently undergoing rapid economic and political transition. The case study highlights local-level institutional adaptation to environmental risks associated with flooding and typhoon impacts in the coastal environment. It is carried out through fieldwork involving qualitative household survey is and interviewing to elicit present and recent coping and adaptation strategies in the context of rapid changes in property rights and economic circumstances. Although Vietnam's transition from state central planning is often heralded as a macroeconomic success story, this study argues that the transition has had negative impacts on social Vulnerability. A decrease in collective action for risk management by state institutions is exacerbated by inertia in some aspects of the decentralized state planning system, while the parallel spontaneous reemergence of civil institutions forms a counterbalancing institutional adaptation. 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Extinction risk, protected areas, and climate change SO BIOSCIENCE LA English DT Article C1 CI, CABS, Washington, DC 20036 USA. S African Natl Biodivers Inst, Climate Change Grp, Kirstenboch Res Ctr, ZA-7735 Cape Town, South Africa. RP Hannah, L, CI, CABS, 1919 M Str,NW, Washington, DC 20036 USA. AB In the past decade, a growing number of studies have modeled the effects of climate change on large numbers of species across diverse focal regions. Many common points emerge from these studies, but it can be difficult to understand the consequences for conservation when data for large numbers of species are summarized. Here we use an in-depth example, them multispecies modeling effort that has been conducted for the proteas of the Cape Floristic Region of South Africa, to illustrate lessons learned in this and other multispecies modeling efforts. Modeling shows that a substantial number of species may lose all suitable range and many may lose all representation in protected areas as a result of climate change, while a much larger number may experience major loss in the amount of their range that is protected. The spatial distribution of protected areas, particularly between lowlands and uplands, is an important determinant of the likely conservation consequences of climate change. 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RP Gable, FJ, Univ Rhode Isl, Coastal Inst, Narragansett, RI 02882 USA. AB This article addresses interdisciplinary sustainable aspects of fisheries as part of ocean management. Human-caused impacts and their role as modifiers of living marine resources is discussed. The research note also theorizes about contemporary global change and its prospective biological consequences, especially when coupled with human-induced factors in coastal marine waters. Also addressed is the management and ecological aspects of fish stock populations as part of a large marine ecosystem (LME) in the Northeast United States continental shelf of the Atlantic Ocean with suggestions for an interdisciplinary policy orientation paradigm to foster the sustainability of marine life in the sea. 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RP Burns, M, CSIR, POB 320, ZA-7600 Stellenbosch, South Africa. AB SCIENCE HAS CONSIDERABLE POTENTIAL to contribute to sustainable development. Much of this potential remains latent, however, due to the divisions that exist within and between the producers of scientific information and the users of this and other sources of knowledge. A response to this situation has seen the emergence of 'sustainability science', which aims to overcome divisions between knowledge sources of various forms, including the social and natural sciences and alternative epistemologies that warrant acknowledgement. We review the key defining characteristics of sustainability science, and describe some examples of science-based South African initiatives, aimed at promoting sustainable development, that incorporate many of these characteristics. We suggest that, with some reinforcement of their sustainability science base, these examples provide good templates for broader application. To retain the experience gained through such projects and to build organizational memory, there is a strong case for the establishment of trans-disciplinary centres for sustainability science in South Africa. 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RP SNARR, DN, WILMINGTON COLL,WILMINGTON,OH 45177. CR BAIRD B, 1976, DISASTER RELIEF HOND BURTON I, 1978, ENV HAZARD, V1, P1 CUNY F, 1974, 1974 REF CAMP HOUS P CUNY FC, 1978, DISASTERS, V2, P118 DAVIS I, 1978, DISASTERS, V2, P105 FOGG R, 1975, HOUSING ENGINEERING GONZALEZ NLS, 1970, COMP STUDIES COMP HI, V12, P1 LEWIS J, 1977, MASS EMERGENCIES, V2, P95 OKEEFE P, 1977, LONG RANGE PLANNING, V10, P25 RIDING A, 1974, NY TIMES 0925, P25 SEEGERS S, 1975, AMERICAS, V27, P19 SNARR N, 1978, 2 FIELD REP SNARR N, 1978, 9TH WORLD C SOC UPPS SNARR N, 1979, POST DISASTER HOUSIN WISNER B, 1977, DISASTERS, V1, P47 NR 15 TC 2 J9 DISASTERS BP 287 EP 292 PY 1979 VL 3 IS 3 GA HS011 UT ISI:A1979HS01100011 ER PT J AU Hundal, SS Prabhjyot-Kaur TI Climatic variability and its impact on cereal productivity in Indian Punjab SO CURRENT SCIENCE LA English DT Article C1 Punjab Agr Univ, Dept Agron & Agrometeorol, Ludhiana 141004, Punjab, India. RP Prabhjyot-Kaur, Punjab Agr Univ, Dept Agron & Agrometeorol, Ludhiana 141004, Punjab, India. AB Dynamic crop growth simulation models CERES-Rice and CERES-Wheat for rice and wheat, respectively were used to study the effect of climate change on growth and yield of these crops under non-limiting water and nitrogen availability. Analysis of recent 30 year historical weather data from different locations in the state revealed that the minimum temperatures have decreased or increased (-0.02 to + 0.07 degrees C/year), maximum temperatures decreased (-0.005 to -0.06 degrees C/ year) and rainfall increased (2.5-16.8 mm/year). Keeping in view the observed trends in climate variability, growth and yield of crops were simulated under plausible synthetic climatic scenarios of changes in temperature and solar radiation. In general, with an increase in temperature above normal, the phenological development in wheat was advanced, but that of rice was not much affected. With an increase in temperature up to 1.0 degrees C the yield of rice and wheat decreased by 3 and 10%, respectively. On the other hand, crop yields decreased with decrease in radiation and vice-versa. The interaction effects of simultaneous increase/decrease in parameters were also simulated. When the maximum temperature decreased by 0.25 to 1.0 degrees C while minimum temperature increased by 1.0 to 3.0 degrees C from normal, the yield in rice and wheat decreased by 0.8 and 3.0%, respectively from normal. CR *IPCC TGCIA, 1999, GUID US SCEN DAT CLI, P69 *IPCC, 1996, 2 SCI ASS CLIM CHANG, P879 BACHELET D, 1993, ECOL MODEL, V65, P71 FARQUHAR GD, 1997, SCIENCE, V278, P1411 GADGIL S, 1996, CLIMATE VARIABILITY, P1 GODWIN D, 1990, USERS GUIDE CERES WI, P94 HOUGHTON JT, 1996, SCI CLIMATE CHANGE HUME CJ, 1990, OUTLOOK AGR, V19, P17 HUNDAL SS, 1996, CLIMATE VARIABILITY, P377 HUNDAL SS, 1997, J AGR SCI 1, V129, P13 HUNDAL SS, 1999, ORYZA, V36, P63 HUNDAL SS, 2002, J AGROMETEOROL, V4, P113 MEARNS LO, 1996, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V32, P257 OLSZYK DM, 1999, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V97, P87 PEART RM, 1989, 2300589053 EPA, V1 RAO G, 1994, 9244 GEC CTR SOC EC RITCHIE JT, 1986, P INT WORKSH IMP WEA, P271 RITCHIE JT, 1993, SYSTEMS APPROACH AGR RITCHIE JT, 1998, UNDERSTANDING OPTION, P79 ROSENZWEIG C, 1994, IMPLICATIONS CLIMATE SINGH U, 2002, MODELLING IRRIGATED, P17 SINHA SK, 1993, INT CROP SCI, V1, P281 TIMSINA J, 2003, 1603 CISRO LAND WAT, P57 WATSON RT, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, V1, P1 WATSON RT, 1998, REGIONAL IMPACTS CLI, V1, P1 WIGLEY TML, 1989, PRIM MIN SEM GLOB CL NR 26 TC 0 J9 CURR SCI BP 506 EP 512 PY 2007 PD FEB 25 VL 92 IS 4 GA 144CT UT ISI:000244773700027 ER PT J AU Detenbeck, NE Batterman, SL Brady, VJ Brazner, JC Snarski, VM Taylor, DL Thompson, JA Arthur, JW TI A test of watershed classification systems for ecological risk assessment SO ENVIRONMENTAL TOXICOLOGY AND CHEMISTRY LA English DT Article C1 US EPA, Mid Continent Ecol Div, Duluth, MN 55804 USA. RP Detenbeck, NE, US EPA, Mid Continent Ecol Div, 6201 Congdon Blvd, Duluth, MN 55804 USA. AB To facilitate extrapolation among watersheds, ecological risk assessments should be based on a model of underlying Factors influencing watershed response, particularly vulnerability. We propose a conceptual model of landscape vulnerability to serve as a basis for watershed classification systems to predict resistance and resilience of aquatic ecosystems to hydrology-related stressors. Watershed area, storage capacity, channel slope, and soil permeability determine sensitivity of lotic systems to stressors associated with land-use activities that impact hydrologic regimes. Natural hydrologic disturbance regimes also influence the resilience of aquatic systems by selecting for life history strategies associated with rapid recolonization following disturbance. Variability in some of these physiographic driving factors can be partitioned by landscape classification schemes such as the U.S. Forest Service Ecological Unit Classification System, while others (watershed storage) may explain remaining variability within landscape units. We are conducting a comparative watershed study to examine simple and interactive effects of physiographic units, watershed storage (lakes + wetlands), and land-clearing activities in watersheds surrounding the western arm of Lake Superior. Initial results for second-order watersheds indicate significant watershed class effects on baseflow water quality, percent motile biraphid diatom species in periphyton communities, habitat quality, and fish community integrity. Future studies have been designed to examine cumulative effects downstream. CR *OH ENV PROT AG, 1989, BIOL CRIT PROT AQ LI, V3 *US EPA, 1996, EPA630R95002B *US EPA, 1998, EPA841S97001 BALON EK, 1975, J FISH RES BOARD CAN, V32, P821 BARTON DR, 1985, N AM J FISH MANAGE, V5, P364 BERKMAN HE, 1987, ENVIRON BIOL FISH, V18, P285 BORMANN FH, 1985, ECOSYSTEM APPROACH A, P436 BRUSSOCK PP, 1985, WATER RESOUR BULL, V21, P859 CRUMPTON WG, 1989, NO PRAIRIE WETLANDS DETENBECK NE, 1992, ENVIRON MANAGE, V16, P33 DYNESIUS M, 1994, SCIENCE, V266, P753 FRISSELL CA, 1986, ENVIRON MANAGE, V10, P199 GUSTAFSON EJ, 1998, ECOSYSTEMS, V1, P143 HEISKARY SA, 1990, MINNESOTA LAKE WATER HEY DL, 1996, GREAT LAKES WETLANDS, V7, P4 JACQUES JE, 1988, 874170 US GEOL SURV JENNINGS MME, 1993, 944002 US GEOL SURV JOHNSTON CA, 1990, BIOGEOCHEMISTRY, V10, P105 KLEIN RD, 1979, WATER RESOURCES B, V15, P948 KRUG WR, 1992, 914128 US GEOL SURV LYONS J, 1992, NC149 USDA LYONS J, 1996, N AM J FISH MANAGE, V16, P241 MAXWELL JR, 1995, NC176176 USDA MCHATTIE B, 1998, GT LAKES WETLANDS, V9, P1 OMERNICK JM, 1988, EPA600388037 POFF NL, 1990, ENVIRON MANAGE, V14, P629 POFF NL, 1995, ECOLOGY, V76, P606 RICHARDS C, 1996, CAN J FISH AQUAT S1, V53, P295 RICHARDS RP, 1990, J GREAT LAKES RES, V16, P53 ROSGEN DL, 1996, APPL RIVER MORPHOLOG SEELBACH PW, 1997, 2036 STAT MICH DEP N SIMONSON TD, 1994, NC164 USDA STRAHLER AN, 1964, HDB APPL HYDROLOGY TILMAN D, 1982, ANNU REV ECOL SYST, V13, P349 VANNOTE RL, 1980, CAN J FISH AQUAT SCI, V37, P130 VERRY ES, 1986, WATER RESOUR BULL, V22, P1039 WALKER W, 1987, LAKE RESERV MANAGE, V3, P314 WHITING PJ, 1993, EARTH SURF PROCESSES, V18, P603 WICKHAM JD, 1994, LANDSCAPE ECOL, V9, P7 WOLTER PT, 1995, PHOTOGRAMM ENG REM S, V61, P1129 NR 40 TC 10 J9 ENVIRON TOXICOL CHEM BP 1174 EP 1181 PY 2000 VL 19 IS 4 GA 300BK UT ISI:000086232800017 ER PT J AU STRONG, MF TI ENVIRONMENT AND DEVELOPMENT - THE UNITED-NATIONS ROAD FROM STOCKHOLM TO RIO SO INTERDISCIPLINARY SCIENCE REVIEWS LA English DT Article C1 UN,CONFERENCE ENVIRONM & DEV,GENEVA,SWITZERLAND. RP STRONG, MF, UN,CONFERENCE ENVIRONM & DEV,ROOM S-3060,NEW YORK,NY 10017. AB The Earth Summit must establish a whole new basis for relations between rich and poor, North and South, including a concerted attack on poverty as a central priority for the 21st century. This is now as imperative in terms of our environmental security as it is on moral and humanitarian grounds. We owe at least this much to future generations, from whom we have borrowed a fragile planet called Earth. NR 0 TC 0 J9 INTERDISCIPLIN SCI REV BP 112 EP 115 PY 1992 PD JUN VL 17 IS 2 GA KZ379 UT ISI:A1992KZ37900007 ER PT J AU Roy, SB Ricci, PF Summers, KV Chung, CF Goldstein, RA TI Evaluation of the sustainability of water withdrawals in the United States, 1995 to 2025 SO JOURNAL OF THE AMERICAN WATER RESOURCES ASSOCIATION LA English DT Article C1 Tetra Tech Inc, Lafayette, CA 94549 USA. Univ Queensland, Plains, Qld 4108, Australia. Univ San Francisco, San Francisco, CA 94117 USA. Elect Power Res Inst, Ecosyst Res, Palo Alto, CA 94303 USA. RP Roy, SB, Tetra Tech Inc, 3746 Mt Diablo Blvd,Suite 300, Lafayette, CA 94549 USA. AB To evaluate the long term sustainability of water withdrawals in the United States, a county level analysis of the availability of renewable water resources was conducted, and the magnitudes of human withdrawals from surface water and ground water sources and the stored water requirements during the warmest months of the year were evaluated. Estimates of growth in population and electricity generation were then used to estimate the change in withdrawals assuming that the rates of water use either remain at their current levels (the business as usual scenario) or that they exhibit improvements in efficiency at the same rate as observed over 1975 to 1995 (the improved efficiency scenario). The estimates show several areas, notably the Southwest and major metropolitan areas throughout the United States, as being likely to have significant new storage requirements with the business-as-usual scenario, under the condition of average water availability. These new requirements could be substantially eliminated under the improved efficiency scenario, thus indicating the importance of water use efficiency in meeting future requirements. The national assessment identified regions of potential water sustainability concern; these regions can be the subject of more targeted data collection and analyses in the future. CR *BEA, 2004, NAT EC ACC CURR DOLL *CPC, 2003, SOIL MOIST MON PRED *EIA, 2003, 1990 2003 NET GEN ST *EPRI, 2003, 1005474 EPRI *GAO, 2003, GAO03514 *NDMC, 2004, PLANN DROUGHT *PMCL INC, 2001, IWR MAIN DEM MAN SUI *US ARM CORPS ENG, 1998, WATER SUPPLY HDB HDB, CH8 *US CENS BUR, 2004, STAT ABSTR US 2004 2 *USDA, 2004, TABL 1 HIST HIGHL 20 *USGS, 1975, WAT US US *USGS, 1999, 1186 USGS *USGS, 2002, 12232 USGS *WRC, 1978, NAT WAT RES 2 NAT AS ARNELL NW, 1999, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V9, P31 BLAKE R, 2000, J AM WATER RESOUR AS, V36, P279 BOLAND JJ, 1997, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V37, P157 BROWN TC, 1999, RMRSGTR39 USDA FOR S DAY JC, 2001, NATL POPULATION PROJ GLEICK PH, 2000, WATER INT, V25, P127 GULDIN RW, 1989, RM177 USDA ROCK MOUN HULME M, 2000, USING CLIMATE SCENAR HURD BH, 1999, J AM WATER RESOUR AS, V35, P1399 HUTSON SS, 2004, 1268 US GEOL SURV LINS HF, 1998, J AM WATER RESOUR AS, V34, P1255 MURDOCH PS, 2000, J AM WATER RESOUR AS, V36, P347 MURRAY CR, 1995, 765 US GEOL SURV SOLLEY WB, 1995, 1200 US GEOL SURV STRZEPEK KM, 1999, J AM WATER RESOUR AS, V35, P1639 VOGEL RM, 1997, J HYDROL, V198, P42 VOROSMARTY CJ, 2000, SCIENCE, V289, P284 NR 31 TC 0 J9 J AM WATER RESOUR ASSOC BP 1091 EP 1108 PY 2005 PD OCT VL 41 IS 5 GA 972JT UT ISI:000232450800006 ER PT J AU Tompkins, EL Adger, WN TI Defining response capacity to enhance climate change policy SO ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE & POLICY LA English DT Article C1 Univ E Anglia, Sch Environm Sci, Tyndall Ctr Climate Change Res, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. Univ Southampton, Dept Geog, Southampton, Hants, England. RP Tompkins, EL, Univ E Anglia, Sch Environm Sci, Tyndall Ctr Climate Change Res, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. AB Climate change adaptation and mitigation decisions made by governments are usually taken in different policy domains. At the individual level however, adaptation and mitigation activities are undertaken together as part of the management of risk and resources. We propose that a useful starting point to develop a national climate policy is to understand what societal response might mean in practice. First we frame the set of responses at the national policy level as a trade off between investment in the development and diffusion of new technology, and investment in encouraging and enabling society to change its behaviour and or adopt the new technology. We argue that these are the pertinent trade-offs, rather than those usually posited between climate change mitigation and adaptation. The preference for a policy response that focuses more on technological innovation rather than one that focuses on changing social behaviour will be influenced by the capacity of different societies to change their greenhouse gas emissions; by perceived vulnerability to climate impacts; and by capacity to modify social behaviour and physical environment. Starting with this complete vision of response options should enable policy makers to re-evaluate the risk environment and the set of response options available to them. From here, policy makers should consider who is responsible for making climate response decisions and when actions should be taken. Institutional arrangements dictate social and political acceptability of different policies, they structure worldviews, and they determine the provision of resources for investment in technological innovation and social change. The importance of focussing on the timing of the response is emphasised to maximise the potential for adjustments through social learning and institutional change at different policy scales. We argue that the ability to respond to climate change is both enabled and constrained by social and technological conditions. The ability of society to respond to climate change and the need for technological change for both decarbonisation and for dealing with surprise in general, are central to concepts of sustainable development. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 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RP Winter, TC, US Geol Survey, Denver Fed Ctr, Mail Stop 413, Lakewood, CO 80225 USA. AB The vulnerability of wetlands to changes in climate depends on their position within hydrologic landscapes. Hydrologic landscapes are defined by the flow characteristics of ground water and surface water and by the interaction of atmospheric water, surface water, and ground water for any given locality or region. Six general hydrologic landscapes are defined; mountainous, plateau and high plain, broad basins of interior drainage, riverine, flat coastal, and hummocky glacial and dune. Assessment of these landscapes indicate that the vulnerability of all wetlands to climate change fall between two extremes: those dependent primarily on precipitation for their water supply are highly vulnerable, and those dependent primarily on discharge from regional ground water flow systems are the least vulnerable, because of the great buffering capacity of large ground water flow systems to climate change. CR *US C OFF TECHN AS, 1993, WETL PREP UNC CLIM, V2, P153 CLAIR TA, 1998, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V40 WINTER TC, 1988, ENVIRON MANAGE, V12, P605 WINTER TC, 1992, NHRI S SERIES, V7, P127 WINTER TC, 1995, P INT GROUNDW MAN S, P139 NR 5 TC 2 J9 J AM WATER RESOUR ASSOC BP 305 EP 311 PY 2000 PD APR VL 36 IS 2 GA 315LJ UT ISI:000087115000006 ER PT J AU RAUTMAN, AE TI RESOURCE VARIABILITY, RISK, AND THE STRUCTURE OF SOCIAL NETWORKS - AN EXAMPLE FROM THE PREHISTORIC SOUTHWEST SO AMERICAN ANTIQUITY LA English DT Article RP RAUTMAN, AE, MICHIGAN STATE UNIV,DEPT ANTHROPOL,E LANSING,MI 48824. AB Social interactions within a region may reduce the risk of resource stress by facilitating access to resources in other areas. Archaeological implications of this view of social networks are considered for the part-agricultural inhabitants of central New Mexico during the Pithouse period (ca. A.D. 900-1250). Spatial patterning of climatic variables suggests that social networks at least 50 km in extent and oriented in an east-southeastern direction from the focal site toward the Sierra Blanca region could have provided access to extralocal resources during years of poor local productivity. Similarity of ceramic assemblages (measured by Brainerd-Robinson coefficients) between the focal site and sites in the proposed alternative resource area confirms some degree of social contact during the Pithouse period; dissimilar ceramic assemblages from comparably distant sites to the west (in the Socorro area) indicate that geographic distance alone is not a good predictor of social interactions in this region. 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P1 KOPP RJ, 1999, DISCOUNTING INTERGEN MANNE A, 1995, ENERGY J, V16, P1 MANNE AS, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE INTEG MENDELSOHN R, 1998, MARKET IMPACTS CLIMA NARAIN U, 1998, 843 U CAL DEP AGR RE NEWELL RG, 1998, 9910 RFF NORDHAUS WD, 1993, RESOUR ENERGY ECON, V15, P27 PECK SC, 1993, RESOUR ENERGY ECON, V15, P71 RICHELS R, 1995, ENERG POLICY, V23, P373 RICHELS R, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE INTEG ROSE A, 1998, ENVIRON RESOUR ECON, V12, P25 SCHELLING TC, 1995, ENERG POLICY, V23, P395 TOMAN MA, 1998, ENVIRON RESOUR ECON, V11, P603 WATSON RT, 1998, REGIONAL IMPACTS CLI, V1, P1 WEITZMAN ML, 1974, REV ECON STUD, V41, P477 WEITZMAN ML, 1999, DISCOUNTING INTERGEN WIGLEY TML, 1996, NATURE, V379, P240 NR 31 TC 0 J9 RESOUR ENERGY ECON BP 201 EP 209 PY 1999 PD AUG VL 21 IS 3-4 GA 210JK UT ISI:000081101200001 ER PT J AU HOLWAY, JM BURBY, RJ TI THE EFFECTS OF FLOODPLAIN DEVELOPMENT CONTROLS ON RESIDENTIAL LAND VALUES SO LAND ECONOMICS LA English DT Article RP HOLWAY, JM, UNIV N CAROLINA,DEPT CITY & REG PLANNING,CHAPEL HILL,NC 27514. CR *LR JOHNST ASS, 1989, TV72105A *SHEAFF ROL INC, 1981, EV EC SOC ENV EFF FL ALONSO W, 1964, LOCATION LAND USE BARNARD JR, 1978, LAND ECON, V54, P298 BURBY RJ, 1985, FLOODPLAIN LAND USE BURBY RJ, 1988, PROGRAM ENV BEHAVIOR, V47 BURTON I, 1978, ENV HAZARD, V1, P1 DAMIANOS D, 1976, B VIRGINIA WATER RES, V95 DIAMOND D, 1982, EC ROLES URBAN AMENI DONNELLY WA, 1989, WATER RESOUR BULL, V25, P581 FOSTER JH, 1976, WATER RESOURCES B, V12, P1029 FREEMAN MA, 1979, BENEFITS ENV IMPROVE GRAVES P, 1988, LAND ECON, V64, P220 HOLWAY JM, 1989, OCT M GROWTH MAN LAN KAISER EJ, 1968, LAND ECON, V63, P351 KRUTILLA JV, 1966, WATER RESOUR RES, V2, P183 LINNEMAN P, 1980, J URBAN ECON, V8, P47 LINNEMAN P, 1982, EC ROLE URBAN AMENIT MENDELSOHN R, 1987, GROWTH CHANGE, V18, P82 MUCKLESTON KW, 1983, WATER RESOUR BULL, V19, P1 PALMQUIST RB, 1989, LAND ECON, V65, P23 POLINSKY AM, 1977, PUBLIC EC QUALITY LI ROBINS PK, 1977, J AM STAT ASSOC, V72, P290 ROSSI PH, 1979, EVALUATION SYSTEMATI SCHWARTZ SI, 1986, LAND ECON, V62, P223 SHONKWILER JS, 1986, LAND ECON, V62, P58 TOBIN GA, 1986, WATER RESOUR BULL, V22, P67 WHITE H, 1980, ECONOMETRICA, V48, P817 NR 28 TC 9 J9 LAND ECON BP 259 EP 271 PY 1990 PD AUG VL 66 IS 3 GA DU811 UT ISI:A1990DU81100004 ER PT J AU Klein, RJT Nicholls, RJ Ragoonaden, S Capobianco, M Aston, J Buckley, EN TI Technological options for adaptation to climate change in coastal zones SO JOURNAL OF COASTAL RESEARCH LA English DT Review C1 Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res, D-14412 Potsdam, Germany. Middlesex Univ, Flood Hazard Res Ctr, Enfield EN3 4SF, Middx, England. Meteorol Serv, Vacoas, Mauritius. Tecnomare SpA, R&D Div, I-30124 Venice, Italy. NOAA, Coastal Serv Ctr, Charleston, SC 29405 USA. RP Klein, RJT, Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res, POB 601203, D-14412 Potsdam, Germany. AB Many different technologies exist to adapt to natural coastal hazards. These technologies can also play an important part in reducing vulnerability to climate change in coastal zones. Technologies are available to develop information and awareness for adaptation in coastal zones, to plan and design adaptation strategies, to implement them, and to monitor and evaluate their performance. This paper briefly describes these four steps and provides important examples of technologies that can be employed to accomplish them. In addition, it identifies three trends in coastal adaptation and associated technology use: (i) a growing recognition of the benefits of "soft" protection and of the adaptation strategies retreat and accommodate, (ii) an increasing reliance on technologies to develop and manage information, and (iii) an enhanced awareness of the need for coastal adaptation to be appropriate for local natural and socio-economic conditions. 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1997, EOS, V78, P396 NR 176 TC 5 J9 J COASTAL RES BP 531 EP 543 PY 2001 PD SUM VL 17 IS 3 GA 479BD UT ISI:000171383300003 ER PT J AU Gregory, PJ Ingram, JSI Brklacich, M TI Climate change and food security SO PHILOSOPHICAL TRANSACTIONS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY B-BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES LA English DT Article C1 Scottish Crop Res Inst, Dundee DD2 5DA, Scotland. NERC, CEH, GECAFS Int Project Off, Wallingford OX10 8BB, Oxon, England. Carleton Univ, Dept Geog & Environm Studies, Ottawa, ON K1S 5B6, Canada. RP Gregory, PJ, Scottish Crop Res Inst, Dundee DD2 5DA, Scotland. AB Dynamic interactions between and within the biogeophysical and human environments lead to the production, processing, distribution, preparation and consumption of food, resulting in food systems that underpin food security. Food systems encompass food availability (production, distribution and exchange), food access (affordability, allocation and preference) and food utilization (nutritional and societal values and safety), so that food security is, therefore, diminished when food systems are stressed. Such stresses may be induced by a range of factors in addition to climate change and/or other agents of environmental change (e.g. conflict, HIV/AIDS) and may be particularly severe when these factors act in combination. Urbanization and globalization are causing rapid changes to food systems. Climate change may affect food systems in several ways ranging from direct effects on crop production (e.g. changes in rainfall leading to drought or flooding, or warmer or cooler temperatures leading to changes in the length of growing season), to changes in markets, food prices and supply chain infrastructure. The relative importance of climate change for food security differs between regions. For example, in southern Africa, climate is among the most frequently cited drivers of food insecurity because it acts both as an underlying, ongoing issue and as a short-lived shock. The low ability to cope with shocks and to mitigate long-term stresses means that coping strategies that might be available in other regions are unavailable or inappropriate. In other regions, though, such as parts of the Indo-Gangetic Plain of India, other drivers, such as labour issues and the availability and quality of ground water for irrigation, rank higher than the direct effects of climate change as factors influencing food security. Because of the multiple socio-economic and bio-physical factors affecting food systems and hence food security, the capacity to adapt food systems to reduce their vulnerability to climate change is not uniform. Improved systems of food production, food distribution and economic access may all contribute to food systems adapted to cope with climate change, but in adopting such changes it will be important to ensure that they contribute to sustainability. Agriculture is a major contributor of the greenhouse gases methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O), so that regionally derived policies promoting adapted food systems need to mitigate further climate change. 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AB The concept of equity is used to highlight the impacts of environmental change on women and children. Three types of equity are defined (social, generational, and procedural) and both process and outcome (distributions) dimensions are described. The application of the equity concept to the understanding of the socio-spatial impacts on women and children is illustrated using three themes. The effect of environmental contamination on women and children provides an example of generational inequity. Evidence of social inequity is seen in the poverty, population, environmental degradation spiral especially as it compromises the wellbeing of women and children and their ability to mitigate the consequence of environmental disturbances. Finally, procedural inequities are described in the context of equal rights for women, including their rights to resources. Women and children bear and will continue bear a disproportionate burden of global environmental changes. They also have unequal capabilities and opportunities for adjustments, rendering them more vulnerable to the regional and global environmental transformations currently underway. 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RP Das, RJ, Univ Dundee, Dept Geog, Dundee DD1 4HN, Scotland. AB The state possesses the relatively autonomous power to give concessions to the lower classes, the poor. But the extent to which the poor will actually benefit from the policies designed to help them is influenced by three factors. First, it depends on the level of the material support for the policy through which the concessions are sought to be given. This level of material support is, in turn, influenced by the state's financial dependence on the private economy and by competing demands from different classes and groups on the state's resources. Second, the extent to which the poor will benefit from the antipoverty intervention also depends on the balance of power between state actors and the poor 'on the ground: that is, at the local scale of state - society interaction where the policies are implemented. There are two aspects to this balance of power. On the one hand, state actors have some relative autonomy which they use to bend the rules of the state, often in alliance with 'dominant' actors in the civil society, in order to pocket a part of the legitimate share belonging to the poor (bribes). On the other hand, these actions of state actors are also subject to the struggle of the poor. Finally, the economic structure within which both the state and its poor clients work also affects the ways in which the antipoverty policies operate. In this paper I argue that these three factors produce constant interactions between state and society. The state is to be seen as both a process and a relationship. To illustrate this argument, I make use of primary and secondary information on the implementation of a major poverty-alleviation programme in India. 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RP Diop, S, UNEP, DEWA, Water Unit, POB 30552, Nairobi, Kenya. CR *FAO, 1997, STATE WORLDS FORESTS CONSTANZA R, 1997, NATURE, V387, P253 CONSTANZA R, 1999, ECOLOGICAL EC, V31, P171 CONSTANZA R, 1999, ECOLOGICAL EC, V31, P199 CORMIERSALEM MC, 1999, HYDROBIOLOGIA, V413, P47 FIELD CD, 1999, HYDROBIOLOGIA, V413, P47 HOGARTH PJ, 2001, OCEAN YB, V15, P331 LUGO AE, 1998, MAR POLLUT BULL, V37, P427 SEMESI AK, 1998, AMBIO, V27, P620 NR 9 TC 0 J9 ESTUAR COAST SHELF SCI BP 1 EP 2 PY 2003 PD SEP VL 58 IS 1 GA 736RP UT ISI:000186187200001 ER PT J AU Tompkins, EL TI Planning for climate change in small islands: Insights from national hurricane preparedness in the Cayman Islands SO GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS LA English DT Article C1 Univ E Anglia, Sch Environm Sci, Tyndall Ctr Climate Change Res, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. Univ Southampton, Dept Geog, Southampton SO17 1BJ, Hants, England. RP Tompkins, EL, Univ E Anglia, Sch Environm Sci, Tyndall Ctr Climate Change Res, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. AB This paper examines contemporary national scale responses to tropical storm risk in a small island in the Caribbean to derive lessons for adapting to climate change. There is little empirical evidence to guide national planners on how to adapt to climate change, and less still on how to build on past adaptation experiences. The paper investigates the construction of institutional resilience and the process of adaptation to tropical storm risk by the Cayman Islands' Government from 1988 to 2002. It explains the roles of persuasion, exposure and collective action as key components in developing the ability to buffer external disturbance using models of institutional economics and social resilience concepts. The study finds that self-efficacy, strong local and international support networks, combined with a willingness to act collectively and to learn from mistakes appear to have increased the resilience of the Cayman Islands' Government to tropical storm risk. The lessons learned from building resilience to storm risk can contribute to the creation of national level adaptive capacity to climate change, but climate change has to be prioritised before these lessons can be transferred. (C) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 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RP Wei, YM, Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Policy & Management, Beijing 100080, Peoples R China. AB China has been greatly affected by natural disasters, so that it is of great importance to analyze the impact of natural disasters on national economy. Usually, the frequency of disasters or absolute loss inflicted by disasters is the first priority to be considered, while the capability of regions to overcome disasters is ignored. The concept of vulnerability is used to measure the capability to overcome disasters in different regions with distinctive economies. Traditional methods for vulnerability analysis calculate sub-indices based on disaster frequency, loss, the economic impact and the population of each region, and then add the sub-indices to get a composite index for regional vulnerability. But those methods are sensitive to the weights selected for sub-indices when multi-indexes are added up to get an index of total vulnerability. The analytic results are less convincing because of the subjectivity of different weighting methods. A data envelopment analysis (DEA)-based model for analysis of regional vulnerability to natural disasters is presented here to improve upon the traditional method. This paper systematically describes the DEA method to evaluate the relative severity of disasters in each region. A model for regional vulnerability analysis is developed, based on the annual governmental statistics from 1989 to 2000. The regional vulnerabilities in China's mainland are illustrated as a case study, and a new method for the classification of regional vulnerability to natural disasters in China is proposed. (C) 2004 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. 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The effect of cultural change on Sabal palm management among the lowland Maya of Mexico SO ECOLOGY AND SOCIETY LA English DT Article C1 Univ Nacl Autonoma Mexico, Mexico City 04510, DF, Mexico. RP Martinez-Balleste, A, Univ Nacl Autonoma Mexico, Mexico City 04510, DF, Mexico. AB Sabal palm has been used for thatching the traditional Maya house for over 3000 yr. The great importance of this resource has promoted its management within home gardens. Although traditionally managed populations in home gardens are capable of ecological long-term persistence, the impact of cultural change on sustainable resource management is poorly understood. By means of interviews in 108 households, we obtained information about Sabal management practices, leaf demand, and sociocultural data. Density and size structure of the palm populations in the respective home gardens were also measured. By means of principal components analysis, the sociocultural data were summarized into a cultural change index, which was then statistically related to palm density, size structure, leaf demand, and management practices. Leaf demand along the cultural change gradient was estimated. Sabal populations were affected by the cultural change index. Palm density and the proportion of harvestable individuals were higher in the more traditional households. The number of management practices decreased, and the probability of felling adult palms increased with cultural change. As a result, the percentage of the total leaf demand satisfied by home garden production diminished from 118.2-69.4% as cultural change increased. Traditional practices seem oriented to increasing the palm availability. Seed sowing and the protection of seedlings and adults affect the life stages with the largest impact on the population growth rate, as measured through sensitivity analysis. This means that abandoning traditional practices and felling adults more frequently should reduce rapidly, which is consistent with the low palm density observed in less traditional households. The application of demographic models to Sabal tells us that traditional management warrants the persistence of the resource as long as the current conditions remain unchanged. In contrast, our data show that Sabal management may not be sustainable from a cultural perspective, since the cultural attitudes that affect palm management and demand change over time. Both approaches assess the same problem from different viewpoints reaching different but complementary conclusions. In this study, we propose new methods that integrate the ecological and cultural processes, which affect the sustainable management of the natural resources. 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RP Ulph, A, Univ Southampton, Southampton SO9 5NH, Hants, England. AB In this paper I address the question of how uncertainty about damage costs and the possibility of resolving that uncertainty in the future affects the incentives for countries to join an international environmental agreement. I use a two-period model with a stock pollutant where the number of countries generating pollution can be arbitrarily large. The stability concept employed is such that size of the stable IEA can be anywhere between 2 and the grand coalition of all countries depending on parameter values. The dynamic structure allows two different membership rules for an IEA: fixed ( countries commit at the outset to be members for both periods) or variable ( countries decide each period whether to join). I show that with fixed membership learning results in at least as high membership and global welfare as no learning ( unless both the expected value and variance of damage costs are high). With variable membership, learning leads to higher membership ( in the second period) but lower global welfare than no learning. For most parameter values variable membership results in higher global welfare than fixed membership. CR *IPCC, 2001, CLIM CHANG 2001 3 AS BARRETT S, 1994, OXFORD ECON PAP, V46, P878 BARRETT S, 2003, ENV STATECRAFT FINUS M, 2001, GAME THEORY INT ENV FISHER A, 2001, 908 U CAL BEK DEP AG FISHER AMH, 2001, UNPUB IRREVERSIBILIT GJERDE J, 1999, RESOUR ENERGY ECON, V21, P289 GRUBB M, 1995, ENERG POLICY, V23, P417 HELM C, 1998, ENVIRON RESOUR ECON, V12, P185 KARP L, 2000, REGULATING GLOBAL CL KARP L, 2001, UNPUB BAYESIAN LEARN KELLY DL, 1999, J ECON DYN CONTROL, V23, P491 KOLSTAD CD, 1996, J ENVIRON ECON MANAG, V31, P1 KOLSTAD CD, 2002, C RISK UNC ENV RES E MANNE A, 1992, BUYING GREENHOUSE IN NA S, 1998, OXFORD ECON PAP, V50, P173 NORDHAUS WD, 1997, ENERGY J, V18, P1 PECK SC, 1993, RESOUR ENERGY ECON, V15, P71 RUBIO S, 2002, 0209 U SOUTH DEP EC RUBIO S, 2002, 0210 U SOUTH DEP EC RUBIO S, 2002, 0211 U SOUTH DEP EC ULPH A, 1996, EC ATMOSPHERIC POLLU, P31 ULPH A, 1997, ECON J, V107, P636 ULPH A, 1997, ENVIRON RESOUR ECON, V9, P451 ULPH A, 1998, GAME THEORY GLOBAL E, P255 ULPH A, 2002, 0207 U SOUTH DEP EC ULPH A, 2002, 0208 U SOUTH DEP EC NR 27 TC 0 J9 J RISK UNCERTAINTY BP 53 EP 73 PY 2004 PD JUL VL 29 IS 1 GA 827YQ UT ISI:000221940000005 ER PT J AU Mendoza, VM Villanueva, EE Adem, J TI Vulnerability of basins and watersheds in Mexico to global climate change SO CLIMATE RESEARCH LA English DT Article C1 Univ Nacl Autonoma Mexico, Ctr Ciencias Atmosfera, Mexico City 04510, DF, Mexico. RP Mendoza, VM, Univ Nacl Autonoma Mexico, Ctr Ciencias Atmosfera, Circuito Exterior,Ciudad Univ, Mexico City 04510, DF, Mexico. AB Some conclusions on the vulnerability of hydrologic regions in Mexico to future changes in climate can be drawn from the application of regional-scale thermal-hydrological models. Climate changes induced by the doubling of atmospheric CO2 have been predicted for the year 2050 by general circulation models (GCMs) and energy balance models (EBMs). The results obtained suggest that potential changes in air temperature and precipitation may have a dramatic impact on the pattern and magnitude of runoff, on soil moisture and evaporation, as well as on the aridity level of some hydrologic zones of Mexico. However, in other cases climate change is likely to produce a positive effect. Indices were estimated for quantifying the vulnerability of hydrologic regions and of the country as a whole. These vulnerability indices were defined according to criteria previously established for studies of this type. The indices provide information about both the hydrologic zones which are vulnerable even under current climate conditions and others which may be vulnerable to future climate changes. CR *IPCC, 1990, CLIM CHANG IPCC SCI *SECR REC HIDR, 1976, ATL AG REP MEX BOER GJ, 1992, J CLIMATE, V5, P1045 GARDUNO GJ, 1991, CIENCIAS, V43, P11 GLEICK PH, 1986, J HYDROL, V88, P97 GLEICK PH, 1987, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V10, P137 GLEICK PH, 1990, VULNERABILITY WATER MANABE S, 1980, J GEOPHYS RES, V85, P5529 MATALAS NC, 1977, CLIMATE CLIMATIC CHA, P99 SZESZTAY K, 1970, UNESCO STUDIES REPOR, V12 NR 10 TC 3 J9 CLIMATE RES BP 139 EP 145 PY 1997 PD DEC 29 VL 9 IS 1-2 GA ZD200 UT ISI:000072661400021 ER PT J AU Giansante, C Aguilar, M Babiano, L Garrido, A Gomez, A Iglesias, E Lise, W Moral, L Pedregal, B TI Institutional adaptation to changing risk of water scarcity in the Lower Guadalquivir Basin SO NATURAL RESOURCES JOURNAL LA English DT Article C1 Univ Seville, Fac Geog & Hist, Dept Human Geog, Seville, Spain. Univ Seville, Fac Geog & Hist, Dept Anthropol, Seville, Spain. Univ Politecn Madrid, ETS Ingn Agron, Dept Agr Econ, Madrid, Spain. Vrije Univ Amsterdam, IES, Amsterdam, Netherlands. RP Giansante, C, Univ Seville, Fac Geog & Hist, Dept Human Geog, Seville, Spain. AB Historically, the Spanish water management model's predominant goal has been resource augmentation. This mindset has had important consequences for the system's capacity to cope with droughts. It has impacted the system's overall vulnerability, the discourse of scarcity, the conceptualisation of risk, and the stakeholders' interests and their approach to risk. The aim of this article is to present the traditional hydraulic paradigm, and its current crisis and implications for present and future risk management, and to explore stakeholder and institutional reactions and adaptation to changing risk scenarios. The adaptation process will be framed within the wider context of macro-trends, such as marketisation and re-scaling of institutions and global warming. CR 2000, REV REAL ACAD CIENCI, V94, P287 *CONF HIDR GUAD, 1995, PLAN HIDR GUAD, P50 *EUR CONS FOR ENV, 1999, EUR SPAT PERSP *MIN ENV, 2000, PLAN HIDR NAC AN SIS, P210 AGUILAR M, 2001, DROUGHT RISK LOWER G ARROJO P, 2000, ECOLOGIA POLITICA, P20 AYALACARCEDO FJ, 1999, TECNOAMBIENTE, V90, P5 AYALACARCEDO FJ, 1999, TECNOAMBIENTE, V90, P5 BABIANO L, 2002, 9 C ANTR BARC, P4 BAKKER K, 2002, ENV PLAN, V34, P777 BAKKER K, 2002, ENVIRON PLANN A, V34, P767 CARR R, 1979, ESPANA DICTADURA DEM DELMORAL L, 1999, CHANGING COURSE WATE DELMORAL L, 2000, LVING DIVERSITY, P617 DIAZ VP, 1993, PRIMACIA SOCIEDAD CI GIANSANTE C, 2000, REV EC MERIDIONALE, V48, P235 GRANDE N, 2000, C IB PLAN GEST AG, P313 ITUARTE LD, 2000, J CONTINGENCIES CRIS, V8, P93 KRIMSKY S, 1992, SOCIAL THEORIES RISK MARTOS JL, 2000, 3 C IB GEST PLAN AG NEVAREZ L, 1996, ANTIPODE, V28, P246 OLSEN A, 2001, NEW WATER FRAMEWORK, P25 PEREZ DF, 1994, UNPUB FINANCIACION S SUMPSI JM, 1999, PLANIFICACION HIDROL, P257 SWYNGEDOUW E, 1997, GLOBAL LOCAL MAKING SWYNGEDOUW E, 1997, UNPUB MODERNITY HYBR, P97 SWYNGEDOUW E, 1999, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V89, P443 NR 27 TC 0 J9 NATUR RESOUR J BP 521 EP 563 PY 2002 PD SUM VL 42 IS 3 GA 634QT UT ISI:000180352400004 ER PT J AU Kantor, P Nair, P TI Vulnerability among slum dwellers in Lucknow, India - Implications for urban livelihood security SO INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT PLANNING REVIEW LA English DT Article C1 Univ E Anglia, Sch Dev Studies, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. RP Kantor, P, Univ E Anglia, Sch Dev Studies, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. AB This paper examines the factors associated with vulnerability among households living in twelve slums in Lucknow, India. It does so using a mixed methods approach, combining findings from focus group discussions regarding characteristics of vulnerable households with quantitative results from a household survey in the same slum, to determine the extent of convergence between understandings of vulnerability from the two data sources, The findings support a high level of agreement around the following key characteristics of vulnerable households: few workers and workers in irregular, casual work types, low and irregular income levels; large household sizes and high numbers of children, particularly girls; female heads of household; exposure to ill health, low education and literacy levels; poor housing quality and lack of home ownership, few social resources, and the inability to save and avoid debt. The results provide indications of what types of interventions are necessary to improve livelihood security among the urban poor in Lucknow, with employment-related interventions seemingly most important since access to work and adequate income were the most mentioned vulnerability factors. CR AMIS P, 2001, ENVIRON URBAN, V13, P101 BEALL J, 2002, URBAN LIVELIHOODS, P71 CARVALHO S, 1997, COMBINING QUANTITATI CHAMBERS R, 1989, IDS B, V20, P1 CHAMBERS R, 1992, SUSTAINABLE RURAL LI GLEWWE P, WHO MOST VULNERABLE HOLLAND J, 2005, METHODS DEV RES KABIR MA, 2000, J INT DEV, V12, P707 KANBUR R, 2003, Q SQUARED QUALITATIV KOZEL V, 2000, INTEGRATING QUANTITA, P59 MEIKLE S, 2002, URBAN LIVELIHOODS, P37 MOSER CON, 1996, ENV SUSTAINABLE DEV, V8 MOSER CON, 1998, WORLD DEV, V26, P1 MOSER G, 1997, HOUSEHOLD RESPONSES, V3 NAIR P, 1998, CITY POVERTY LOCAL A NARAYAN D, 2000, CAN ANYONE HEAR US PRAXIS, 1999, CONSULTATIONS POOR 1 PRYER J, 1989, IDS BULL-I DEV STUD, V20, P49 RAKODI C, 1999, DEV POLICY REV, V17, P315 RAKODI C, 2002, URBAN LIVELIHOODS PE, P3 ROSENZWEIG MR, 1993, J POLIT ECON, V101, P223 SEBSTAD J, 2001, MICROFINANCE RISK MA SEN AK, 1999, DEV FREEDOM SHERRADEN M, 1991, ASSETS POOR NEW AM W SINGH K, 2001, SHELTERS, V4, P64 SWIFT J, 1989, IDS B, V20, P8 UNHABITAT, 2003, CHALLENGE SLUMS GLOB WHITE H, 2002, WORLD DEV, V30, P511 WOOD G, 2000, J INT DEV, V12, P669 WRATTEN E, 1995, ENVIRON URBAN, V7, P11 NR 30 TC 0 J9 INT DEV PLAN REV BP 333 EP 358 PY 2005 VL 27 IS 3 GA 024IA UT ISI:000236187500004 ER PT J AU Olivo, MD Lettherny, E Ramos, CP Sosa, M TI Land loss at the Venezuelan coast due to sea level rise SO INTERCIENCIA LA Spanish DT Article C1 Cent Univ Venezuela, Escuela Nutr & Dietet, Fac Med, Caracas, Venezuela. Univ Simon Bolivar, Caracas 1080, Venezuela. Cent Univ Venezuela, Lab Nacl Hidraul, Caracas, Venezuela. Cent Univ Venezuela, Ctr Nacl Desarrollo Social, Caracas, Venezuela. Minist Ambiente & Recursos Nat, Dirrecc Equipamiento Ambiental, Maracay, Venezuela. Minist Ambiente & Recursos Nat, Direcc Ordenac Terr, Maracay, Venezuela. RP Olivo, MD, Cent Univ Venezuela, Escuela Nutr & Dietet, Fac Med, Caracas, Venezuela. AB Some of the effects of the global climate change comprise impacts on human health, agricultural production and plagues, sea level rise, patterns of precipitation and evaporation, and storms. The objective of this study is to assess the potential land loss upon a sea level rise of 0.5m in two Venezuelan coastal sectors: Cabo Codera-Parque Nacional Laguna de Tacarigua and Barcelona-Puerto La-Cruz-Guanta. It was estimated that the first one of the two sectors is more vulnerable to land loss due to erosion, while losses due to inundation are not significantly higher for any of the two areas. Impacts affect mostly urban areas, tourist infrastructure and coastal wetlands. In the vulnerability analysis of sea level impact, the response options evaluated would generate a very high cost for the country. It is proposed that vulnerability analysis to sea level rise be incorporated as part of the coastal zones planning and management process. CR *CORPOTURISMO, 1998, REG INFR TUR *FIV, 1993, MEM AN *IPCC, 1992, GLOB CLIM CHANG RIS WATSON RT, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, V1, P1 *NOOA, 1997, INT WORKSH PLANN CLI, V1 *OCEI, 1990, AN *UNEP IOC, 1995, TASK TEAM IMPL CLIM, P6 *UNEP WMO, 1995, IMPACTS ADAPTATIONS APARICIO R, 1990, CHANGING CLIMATE COA, V2, P385 ARISMENDI J, 1992, CAMBIO CLIMATICO GLO BERNAL PA, 1991, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V18, P339 CONDE JE, 1996, INTERCIENCIA, V21, P1 CONDE JE, 1999, ENV SCI SERIES, P297 DIAZ H, 1985, ACTA CIENT VENEZ, V36, P123 EDWARDS AJ, 1995, CLIMATE CHANGE IMPAC, P209 ELLISON JC, 1993, ESTUAR COAST SHELF S, V37, P75 FRECH G, 1995, J COASTAL RES, V14, P224 HANDS EB, 1983, HDB COASTAL PROCESSE, P167 HOUGHTON J, 1998, CLIMATE CHANGE RADIA MARTINSON IM, 1987, J PEDIATR NURS, V2, P227 MORALES PR, 1991, COASTAL MORPHOLOGY S NIANG J, 1992, P INT WORKSH GLOB CL, P407 NICHOLLS RJ, 1994, J COASTAL RES, P26 NICHOLLS RJ, 1994, GEOMORPHOLOGY LAND M, P23 OLIVO MD, 1997, CLIMATE RES, V9, P57 OLIVO ML, 1992, THESIS U S BOLIVAR OLIVO ML, 1996, VULNERABILIDAD COSTA OLIVO ML, 1999, IMPACTOS CAMBIOS CLI PAINE RT, 1993, BIOTIC INTERACTIONS, P347 PATZ JA, 1998, CLIMATE CHANGE, V6, P113 PERDOMO M, 1999, ZONAS COSTERAS RELAC PERILLO G, 1992, P INT WORKSH GLOB CL, P263 SAIZAR A, 1997, CLIMATE RES, V9, P73 SANTIAGO V, 1995, SEM DES SOST TUR GRA TERGART W, 1992, CLIMATE CHANGE IPCC, P245 VANDAM J, 1993, SEA LEVEL CHANGES TH, P49 WILKINSON C, 1999, AMBIO, V28, P188 WOLFF W, 1993, INT WORKSH SEA CHANG, P139 NR 38 TC 1 J9 INTERCIENCIA BP 463 EP + PY 2001 PD OCT VL 26 IS 10 GA 491XA UT ISI:000172134300007 ER PT J AU Kesavan, PC Swaminathan, MS TI Managing extreme natural disasters in coastal areas SO PHILOSOPHICAL TRANSACTIONS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY A-MATHEMATICAL PHYSICAL AND ENGINEERING SCIENCES LA English DT Article C1 MS Swaminathan Res Fdn, Taramani Inst Area, Madras 600113, Tamil Nadu, India. RP Kesavan, PC, MS Swaminathan Res Fdn, Taramani Inst Area, 3rd Cross St, Madras 600113, Tamil Nadu, India. AB Extreme natural hazards, particularly the hydro-meteorological disasters, are emerging as a cause of major concern in the coastal regions of India and a few other developing countries. These have become more frequent in the recent past, and are taking a heavy toll of life and livelihoods. Low level of technology development in the rural areas together-with social, economic and gender inequities enhance the vulnerability of the largely illiterate, unskilled, and resource-poor fishing, farming and landless labour communities. Their resilience to bounce back to pre-disaster level of normality is highly limited. For the planet Earth at crossroads, the imminent threat, however, is from a vicious spiral among environmental degradation, poverty and climate change-related natural disasters interacting in a mutually reinforcing manner. These, in turn, retard sustainable development, and also wipe out any small gains made thereof. To counter this unacceptable trend, the M.S. Swaminathan Research Foundation has developed a biovillage paradigm and rural knowledge centres for ecotechnological and knowledge empowerment of the coastal communities at risk. Frontier science and technologies blended with traditional knowledge and ecological prudence result in ecotechnologies with pro-nature, pro-poor and pro-women orientation. The rural communities are given training and helped to develop capacity to adopt ecotechnologies for market-driven eco-enterprises. The modern information and communication-based rural knowledge centres largely operated by trained semi-literate young women provide time- and locale-specific information on weather, crop and animal husbandry, market trends and prices for local communities, healthcare, transport, education, etc. to the local communities. The ecotechnologies and time- and locale-specific information content development are need-based and chosen in a 'bottom-up' manner. The use of recombinant DNA technology for genetic shielding of agricultural crops for coastal regions against abiotic stress (induced by the water- and weather-related natural disasters), strengthens the foundations of sustainable agriculture undertaken by the resource poor small farm families. CR 2005, SUNDAY HERALD *COMM GRAIN BANK, 2001, INSTR LOC FOOD SEC *FAO, 2003, STAT WORLDS FOR FOOD *GEO 3, 2002, GLOB ENV OUTL, V3 *IFRC, 2001, WORLD DIS REP *M S SWAM RES FDN, 2001, 12 M S SWAM RES FDN *MS SWAM RES FDN, 1998, BIOD GULF MANN MAR B *MSSRF, 1990, SOC VIS SCI 2000 HIS *MSSRF, 2002, MANGR DEC 2002 ACT L *UNEP, 1989, CRIT ASS VULN SEA LE ADGER WN, 2005, SCIENCE, V309, P1036 AGLIONBY J, 2005, GUARDIAN UNLIMITED ALLENBY BR, 2005, SCIENCE, V309, P1034 AMMON CJ, 2005, SCIENCE, V308, P1133 BILHAM R, 2005, SCIENCE, V308, P1126 BRUNTLAND G, 1987, OUR COMMON FUTURE WO DANIELSEN F, 2005, SCIENCE, V310, P643 DENYER S, 2005, INDEPENDENT ONLINE EMANUEL K, 2005, NATURE, V436, P686 GUPTA V, 2005, EC POL WKLY, V40, P981 HIRAISHI T, 2003, GREENBELT TSUNAMI PR LAY T, 2005, SCIENCE, V308, P1127 MAYAUX P, 2005, PHILOS T ROY SOC B, V360, P373 MEHTA PA, 2005, THEOR APPL GENET, V110, P416 MISHRA DC, 2005, CURR SCI INDIA, V88, P680 MOBERG F, 1999, ECOL ECON, V29, P215 MUMBY PJ, 2004, NATURE, V427, P533 MYERS N, 1989, DEFORESTATION RATES MYERS N, 2002, PHILOS T ROY SOC B, V357, P609 MYES N, 2000, GAIA ATLAS FUTURE WO PRASHANT SR, 2005, ROLE BIOTECHNOLOGY C, P67 RAO PCS, 2005, TSUNAMI INDIAN CONTE, P33 REVKIN AC, 2005, INT HERALD TRIBUNE SELVAM V, IN PRESS ROLE MANGRO SIEH K, 2006, PHILOS T R SOC A, V364, P1947 SINHA SK, 1991, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V19, P201 STONE A, 2005, SCIENCE, V310, P1602 SWAMINATHAN MS, 1968, 55 IND SCI C JAN 196 SWAMINATHAN MS, 1972, AGR EVOLUTION PRODUC SWAMINATHAN MS, 1996, SUSTAINABLE AGR FOOD SWAMINATHAN MS, 1999, CENTURY HOPE ERA HAR SWAMINATHAN MS, 1999, CENTURY HOPE FOOD SE SWAMINATHAN MS, 1999, CURR SCI INDIA, V77, P341 SWAMINATHAN MS, 2000, BIOLOGIST, V47, P85 SWAMINATHAN MS, 2000, SCIENCE, V287, P425 SWAMINATHAN MS, 2002, RIO JANEIRO JOHANNES SWAMINATHAN MS, 2005, 20042005 SWAMINATHAN MS, 2005, HINDU 0117 TRENBERTH K, 2005, SCIENCE, V308, P1753 WILSON EO, 2002, FUTURE LIFE NR 50 TC 1 J9 PHILOS TRANS R SOC A BP 2191 EP 2216 PY 2006 PD AUG 15 VL 364 IS 1845 GA 075YM UT ISI:000239923700022 ER PT J AU Flint, CG Luloff, AE TI Natural resource-based communities, risk, and disaster: An intersection of theories SO SOCIETY & NATURAL RESOURCES LA English DT Article C1 Penn State Univ, Earth & Environm Syst Inst, University Pk, PA 16802 USA. RP Flint, CG, Penn State Univ, Earth & Environm Syst Inst, 2217 Earth Environm Sci Bldg, University Pk, PA 16802 USA. AB Natural resource-based communities are often theoretically assumed to be vulnerable to the negative effects of environmental and social change. Such communities are also seen as being especially vulnerable to risks and disasters. Disaster research perspectives echo this in their emphasis on environmental and social vulnerability. Also, theories of risk largely fail to illuminate community level experiences. To address this gap, a community-based approach is advanced that incorporates vulnerability, risk perception, and the capacity for local action in a framework for understanding community response to risk. The intersection of an interactional theory of community and perspectives from risk and disaster research is explored in the context of natural resource-based communities. CR AXELSSON A, 1999, NOISE HLTH, V2, P1 BATES FL, 1972, SOC FORCES, V50, P371 BECK U, 1992, RISK SOC NEW MODERNI BECK U, 1999, WORLD RISK SOC BENDER T, 1978, COMMUNITY SOCIAL CHA BERKE PR, 1993, DISASTERS, V17, P93 BILLINGS DB, 1990, AM J SOCIOL, V96, P1 BLAIKIE PM, 1994, RISK NATURAL HAZARDS, V1, P1 BRIDGER JC, 1996, SOCIOL QUART, V37, P353 BRIDGER JC, 1999, J RURAL STUD, V15, P377 BURTON I, 1978, ENV HAZARD, V1, P1 CANNON T, 1994, DISASTERS DEV ENV, P13 COLEMAN JS, 1957, COMMUNITY CONFLICT COSER L, 1956, FUNCTIONS SOCIAL CON COTHERN CR, 1996, HDB ENV RISK DECISIO COUCH SR, 1985, SOC SCI QUART, V66, P564 CUNY F, 1983, DISASTERS DEV CUTTER SL, 2001, NAT HAZARDS OBSERVER, V24, P3 CUTTER SL, 2003, SOC SCI QUART, V84, P242 DOUGLAS M, 1982, RISK CULTURE ESSAY S ERIKSON KT, 1976, EVERYTHING ITS PATH ERIKSON KT, 1994, NEW SPECIES TROUBLE FIELD DR, 1988, RURAL SOCIOLOGY ENV FITCHEN JM, 1987, SOCIAL CULTURAL CONS, P31 FLINT CG, 2004, THESIS PENNSYLVANIA FREUDENBURG WR, 1991, SOC FORCES, V69, P1143 FREUDENBURG WR, 1992, RURAL SOCIOL, V57, P305 FREUDENBURG WR, 1992, SOCIOL QUART, V33, P389 FRITZ CE, 1961, INTRO SOCIOLOGY DEVI, P651 GAVENTA J, 1980, POWER POWERLESSNESS GILBERT C, 1995, INT J MASS EMERGENCI, V13, P231 GRAY GJ, 2001, UNDERSTANDING COMMUN GREGORY RS, 2002, RISK ANAL, V22, P347 GREIDER T, 1994, RURAL SOCIOL, V59, P1 GUNTER VJ, 1999, SOCIOL QUART, V40, P623 HANNIGAN JA, 1995, ENV SOCIOLOGY SOCIAL HEWITT K, 1983, INTERPRETATIONS CALA, P3 HEWITT K, 1998, WHAT IS DISASTER PER, P75 HILLERY GA, 1955, RURAL SOCIOL, V20, P111 HUMPHREY CR, 1990, AM RURAL COMMUNITIES, P34 HUMPHREY CR, 1993, PERSISTENT POVERTY R, P136 IRWIN A, 2001, SOCIOLOGY ENV KEMMIS D, 1990, COMMUNITY POLITICS P KNIGHT FH, 1921, RISK UNCERTAINTY PRO KRANNICH RS, 1991, PROGR RURAL POLICY P, V1, P5 KROLLSMITH J, 1989, ENV TECHNOLOGY SOC, V56, P2 KROLLSMITH J, 1990, REAL DISASTER IS GRO KROLLSMITH S, 2002, HDB ENV SOCIOLOGY, P295 LAZO J, 2000, RISK ANAL, V10, P179 LOWENTHAL D, 2000, RISK MODERN AGE SOCI, P251 LULOFF AE, 1979, RURAL SOCIOL, V44, P137 LULOFF AE, 1990, AM RURAL COMMUNITIES, P214 LULOFF AE, 1995, INVESTING PEOPLE HUM, P351 LULOFF AE, 2003, P INT S SOC RES MAN LUPTON D, 1999, RISK MARCHAK PM, 1983, GREEN GOLD FOREST IN MERTON RK, 1967, THEORETICAL SOCIOLOG MILETI DS, 1991, PUBLIC RESPONSE LOMA MILLS CW, 1959, SOCIOLOGICAL IMAGINA MITCHELL JK, 1990, NOTHING FEAR RISKS H, P131 MITCHELL JK, 1996, LONG ROAD RECOVERY C MORROW BH, 1996, INT J MASS EMERGENCI, V14, P5 MURDOCK SH, 1999, HAZARDOUS WASTES RUR NORD M, 1993, RURAL SOCIOL, V58, P492 OLIVERSMITH A, 2002, CATASTROPHE CULTURE, P3 PICOU J, 2000, RISK MODERN AGE SOCI, P143 QUARANTELLI EL, 1987, INT J MASS EMERGENCI, V5, P7 QUARENTELLI EL, 1998, WHAT IS DISASTER PER RAYNER S, 1992, SOCIAL THEORIES RISK, P83 RICH RC, 1995, AM J COMMUN PSYCHOL, V23, P657 SAVAGE I, 1993, RISK ANAL, V13, P413 SCHWAB J, 1998, 483484 PAS AM PLANN SHORT JF, 1984, AM SOCIOL REV, V49, P711 SLOVIC P, 1987, SCIENCE, V236, P280 SLOVIC P, 2000, PERCEPTION RISK SOROKIN P, 1928, CONT SOCIOLOGICAL TH SOROKIN P, 1942, MAN SOC CALAMITY STEHR S, 2001, HDB CRISIS EMERGENCY, P419 SUSMAN P, 1983, INTERPRETATIONS CALA, P263 TIERNEY KJ, 1999, SOCIOL FORUM, V14, P215 TILLY C, 1973, SOCIOL INQ, V43, P209 TVERSKY A, 1974, SCIENCE, V185, P1124 VARLEY A, 1994, DISASTERS DEV ENV WEISS G, 2001, RISK ANAL FOREST MAN, P171 WENGER DE, 1994, DISASTERS COLLECTIVE, P229 WEST PC, 1994, SOC NATUR RESOUR, V7, P415 WILKINSON CF, 1992, EAGLE BIRD WILKINSON KP, 1991, COMMUNITY RURAL AM WULFHORST JD, 1999, SOC NATUR RESOUR, V12, P1 ZAVESTOSKI S, 2002, SOCIOL QUART, V43, P385 ZEKERI AA, 1994, RURAL SOCIOL, V59, P216 NR 91 TC 2 J9 SOC NATUR RESOUR BP 399 EP 412 PY 2005 PD MAY-JUN VL 18 IS 5 GA 923BX UT ISI:000228884800001 ER PT J AU McPeak, J TI Contrasting income shocks with asset shocks: livestock sales in northern Kenya SO OXFORD ECONOMIC PAPERS-NEW SERIES LA English DT Article C1 Syracuse Univ, Maxwell Sch, Dept Publ Adm, Syracuse, NY 13244 USA. Syracuse Univ, Maxwell Sch, Dept Econ, Syracuse, NY 13244 USA. RP McPeak, J, Syracuse Univ, Maxwell Sch, Dept Publ Adm, Syracuse, NY 13244 USA. AB The literature on risk management in agrarian economies has predominantly focused on the use of assets to buffer consumption against income shocks. However, households in certain low-income, high-risk environments confront asset as well as income shocks. This study investigates livestock sales behavior in an environment where both income and asset shocks occur. The nature of each type of shock is analyzed, and their respective impact on sales behavior is identified. Results indicate income and asset shocks are positively correlated, but influence sales in an offsetting fashion. This provides a possible explanation for the limited empirical support found by previous studies investigating the role of livestock sales in buffering consumption. Marketing and savings institutions that reduce vulnerability to asset shocks in addition to income shocks offer the potential to reduce household risk exposure. CR *UN FAO, 1971, RANG SURV KEN RANG D *WORLD BANK, 2000, WORLD DEV REP 2000 1 BARRETT CB, 2003, J AFR ECON, V12, P127 BINSWANGER HP, 1986, J DEV STUD, V22, P503 BROMLEY D, 1989, EC DEV CULTURAL CHAN, V34, P719 CARTER MR, 2001, WORLD DEV, V29, P1987 COPPOCK DL, 1994, BORANA PLATEAU SO ET DERCON S, 1998, J DEV ECON, V55, P1 DREZE J, 1989, FAMINES SOCIAL RESPO FAFCHAMPS M, 1998, J AFR ECON, V7, P384 FAFCHAMPS M, 1998, J DEV ECON, V55, P273 GRANDIN BE, 1983, PASTORAL SYSTEMS RES, P277 JACOBY HG, 1998, AM J AGR ECON, V80, P1 JARVIS LS, 1974, J POLITICAL EC, V82, P489 KINSEY B, 1998, WORLD DEV, V26, P89 LEGESSE A, 1989, AFRICAN FOOD SYSTE 1, P261 LEVHARI D, 1969, REV ECON STUD, V36, P153 LIM YJ, 1998, REV ECON DYNAM, V1, P59 LYBBERT T, 2002, 0244 CORN U DEP APPL MARTIN M, 1985, POPULATION HLTH NUTR, P289 MCCABE T, 1987, HUM ECOL, V15, P317 MCPEAK J, 2002, AM AGR EC ASS M LONG MCPEAK JG, 2001, AM J AGR ECON, V83, P674 OLEARY MF, 1987, PROPERTY POVERTY PEO, P55 PAXSON CH, 1992, AM ECON REV, V82, P15 PHELPS ES, 1962, ECONOMETRICA, V30, P729 ROBINSON P, 1985, THESIS NW U ROSEN S, 1987, AM J AGR ECON, V69, P547 ROSEN S, 1994, J POLITICAL EC, V102, P468 ROSENZWEIG MR, 1993, J POLIT ECON, V101, P223 SANDMO A, 1969, ECONOMETRICA, V37, P586 SANDMO A, 1970, REV ECON STUD, V37, P353 SCHLEE G, 1991, RANGE MANAGEMENT HDB, P130 SCHWARTZ H, 1991, RANGE MANAGEMENT HDB SCOONES I, 1995, LIVING UNCERTAINTY N SEN AK, 1981, POVERTY FAMINES ESSA, V1, P1 SMITH RJ, 1986, ECONOMETRICA, V54, P679 SOBANIA N, 1979, BACKGROUND HIST MT K TABLINO P, 1999, GABRA CAMEL NOMADS N TORRY W, 1973, THESIS COLUMBIA U UDRY C, 1995, AM ECON REV, V85, P1287 ZIMMERMAN FJ, 2003, J DEV ECON, V71, P233 NR 42 TC 0 J9 OXFORD ECON PAP-NEW SER BP 263 EP 284 PY 2004 PD APR VL 56 IS 2 GA 809CU UT ISI:000220615600006 ER PT J AU Turner, RK Subak, S Adger, WN TI Pressures, trends, and impacts in coastal zones: Interactions between socioeconomic and natural systems SO ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article C1 UNIV COLL LONDON,LONDON,ENGLAND. RP Turner, RK, UNIV E ANGLIA,CTR SOCIAL & ECON RES GLOBAL ENVIRONM,NORWICH NR4 7TJ,NORFOLK,ENGLAND. AB This paper assesses the status of coastal zones in the context of expected climate change and its related impacts, as well as current and future socioeconomic pressures and impacts. It is argued that external stresses and shocks relating to sea-level rise and other changes will tend to exacerbate existing environmental pressures and damage in coastal zones. Coastal zones are under increasing stress because of an interrelated set of planning failures including information, economic market, and policy intervention failures. Moves towards integrated coastal zone management are urgently required to guide the coevolution of natural and human systems. Overtly technocentric claims that assessments of vulnerability undertaken to date are overestimates of likely future damages from global warming are premature. While it is the case that forecasts of sea-level rise have been scaled down, much uncertainty remains over, for example, combined storm, sea surge, and other events. In any case, within the socioeconomic analyses of the problem, resource valuations have been at best only partial and have failed to incorporate sensitivity analysis in terms of the discount rates utilized. This would indicate an underestimation of potential damage costs. Overall, a precautionary approach is justified based on the need to act ahead of adequate information acquisition, economically efficient resource pricing and proactive coastal planning. CR *IPCC, 1992, GLOB CLIM CHANG RIS *IPCC, 1994, PREP MEET COAST CHAL *OECD, 1991, RESP CLIM CHANG SEL *OECD, 1993, COAST ZON MAN INT PO *OECD, 1993, COAST ZON MAN SEL CA *RES ASS COMM, 1993, COAST ZON INQ *UNEP, 1991, ENV DAT REP *WORLD RES I, 1994, WORLD RES 1994 95 GU *WTO, 1991, 1991 YB TOUR STAT 19 BARBIER EB, 1989, 8902 LEEC GAT BARBIER EB, 1994, LAND ECON, V70, P155 BERZ G, 1991, SCHADENSPIEGEL, V1, P14 BIGFORD TE, 1991, COAST MANAGE, V19, P417 BROADUS JM, 1993, CLIMATE SEA LEVEL CH, P263 BROOME J, 1992, COUNTING COST GLOBAL BROWN K, 1994, INCREMENTAL COSTS BI BRYANT EA, 1991, NATURAL HAZARDS CLINE W, 1992, EC GLOBAL WARMING COSTANZA R, 1989, ECOL ECON, V1, P335 DENELZEN MGJ, 1992, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V20, P169 DIXON JA, 1989, TROPICAL COASTAL ARE, V4, P5 EMANUEL KA, 1987, NATURE, V326, P483 FANKHAUSER S, 1995, ENVIRON PLANN A, V27, P299 GLEICK PH, 1990, ASSESSING COSTS ADAP GORNITZ V, 1994, NATURE, V371, P481 HALL C, 1986, GREENHOUSE EFFECT SE HAMEED H, 1993, THESIS U E ANGLIA NO HOLLAND GJ, 1988, GREENHOUSE PLANNING, P438 IVES ID, 1989, HIMILAVAN DILEMMA RE LEATHERMAN SP, 1994, ECODECISION, V11, P53 LUNDIN CG, 1993, AMBIO, V22, P468 MILLIMAN JD, 1989, AMBIO, V18, P340 MITCHELL JK, 1992, CONFRONTING CLIMATE, P141 NGOILE MAK, 1993, AMBIO, V22, P461 NICHOLLS RJ, 1993, AM I PHYSICS C P, V277, P193 NICHOLLS RJ, 1995, J COASTAL RES NICHOLLS RJ, 1995, WCC 93 PREPARING MEE, P181 NIJKAMP P, 1991, PROJECT APPRAISAL, V16, P143 NUNN PD, 1994, ASSESSMENT VULNERABI ONEILL B, 1990, NEW SCI 0203, P46 PEARCE DW, 1992, BENEFITS ESTIMATES E PEARCE DW, 1993, WORLD END PERNETTA JC, 1992, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V2, P19 PERNETTA JC, 1992, OCEAN COAST MANAGE, V18, P113 PINGALI PL, 1990, EC DEV CULTURAL CHAN, V40, P697 RAMBIAL BS, 1980, 11 COMM FOR C TRIN RIJKSW, 1991, RIS WAT IMP GREENH E SAHAGIAN DL, 1994, NATURE, V367, P54 SMITH K, 1992, ENV HAZARDS ASSESSIN THATCHER ML, 1986, GREENHOUSE EFFECT SE TITUS JG, 1991, ENVIRON MANAGE, V15, P39 TURNER K, 1991, AMBIO, V20, P59 TURNER RK, 1988, EC GROWTH SUSTAINABL, P121 TURNER RK, 1991, WETLANDS MARKET INTE TURNER RK, 1995, BIODIVERSITY LOSS EC, P129 TURNER RK, 1995, IN PRESS ENV PLANN A, V27 WARRICK RA, 1992, CONFRONTING CLIMATE, P97 WEBER M, 1990, USING COMMON SENSE P WIGLEY TML, 1992, NATURE, V357, P293 WISNER BG, 1978, DISASTERS, V2, P80 NR 60 TC 11 J9 ENVIRON MANAGE BP 159 EP 173 PY 1996 PD MAR-APR VL 20 IS 2 GA TZ628 UT ISI:A1996TZ62800001 ER PT J AU Darwin, RF Tol, RSJ TI Estimates of the economic effects of sea level rise SO ENVIRONMENTAL & RESOURCE ECONOMICS LA English DT Article C1 USDA, Econ Res Serv, Washington, DC 20250 USA. Univ Hamburg, Ctr Marine & Climate Res, Hamburg, Germany. Vrije Univ Amsterdam, Inst Environm Studies, Amsterdam, Netherlands. Carnegie Mellon Univ, Ctr Integrated Studies Human Dimensions Global Ch, Pittsburgh, PA 15213 USA. RP Darwin, RF, USDA, Econ Res Serv, Washington, DC 20250 USA. AB Regional estimates of direct cost (DC) are commonly used to measure the economic damages of sea level rise. Such estimates suffer from three limitations: (i) values of threatened endowments are not well known, (ii) loss of endowments does not affect consumer prices, and (iii) international trade is disregarded. Results in this paper indicate that these limitations can significantly affect economic assessments of sea level rise. Current uncertainty regarding endowment values (as reflected in two alternative data sets), for example, leads to a 17 percent difference in coastal protection, a 36 percent difference in the amount of land protected, and a 36 percent difference in DC globally. Also, global losses in equivalent variation (EV), a welfare measure that accounts for price changes, are 13 percent higher than DC estimates. Regional EV losses may be up to 10 percent lower than regional DC, however, because international trade tends to redistribute losses from regions with relatively high damages to regions with relatively low damages. CR *INT PAN CLIM CHAN, 1991, COMM METH ASS VULN S *US NAV FLEET NAV, 1992, GLOB EC DAT VERS 1 0 BENISTON M, 1998, REGIONAL IMPACTS CLI, P149 BIJLSMA L, 1993, WORLD COAST C 1993 P BIJLSMA L, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, P289 BROADUS JM, 1996, SEA LEVEL RISE COAST, P313 CLINE WR, 1992, EC GLOBAL WARMING DARWIN RF, 1996, ECOL ECON, V17, P157 DARWIN RF, 1999, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V41, P371 DARWIN RF, 1995, 703 USDA EC RES SERV FANKHAUSER S, 1994, ENVIRON PLANN A, V27, P299 HARRISON WJ, 1996, COMPUTATIONAL EC, V9, P83 HOOZEMANS FMJ, 1993, GLOBAL VULNERABILITY HOUGHTON JT, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995 JANSEN HMA, 1991, CLIMATE CHANGE EVALU KOMAR PD, 1991, J COASTAL RES, V7, P895 LEATHERMAN SP, 1995, J COASTAL RES, V14, P1 MISDORP R, 1990, STRATEGIES ADAPTION NICHOLLS RJ, 1995, CLIMATE CHANGES POTE NICHOLLS RJ, 1995, J COASTAL RES, V14, P26 NICHOLLS RJ, 1996, OCEAN COAST MANAGE, V31, P105 NORDHAUS WD, 1991, ECON J, V101, P920 NORDHAUS WD, 1994, MANAGING GLOBAL COMM OLSON JS, 1992, GLOBAL ECOSYSTEMS DA RIJSBERMAN FR, 1991, RESPONDING CLIMATE C, P11 TITUS JG, 1992, GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANG, P384 TOL RSJ, 1995, ENVIRON RESOUR ECON, V5, P353 TOL RSJ, 1996, ECOL ECON, V19, P67 TOL RSJ, 1997, ENVIRON MODEL ASSESS, V2, P151 TOL RSJ, 1999, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V41, P351 TOL RSJ, 1999, D991 VRIJ U I ENV ST TOL RSJ, 1999, D992 VRIJ U I ENV ST TOL RSJ, 1999, ENERGY J SPECIAL ISS, P130 TOL RSJ, 1999, ENERGY J, V20, P61 TOL RSJ, 1999, ENVIRON RESOUR ECON, V14, P33 TOL RSJ, 1999, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V9, P221 TURNER RK, 1995, ENVIRON PLANN A, V27, P1777 VELLINGA P, 1989, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V15, P175 WARRICK RA, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, P359 YOHE GW, 1990, COAST MANAGE, V18, P403 YOHE GW, 1995, J ENVIRON ECON MANAG, V29, S78 YOHE GW, 1996, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V32, P387 YOHE GW, 1998, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V38, P447 NR 43 TC 0 J9 ENVIRON RESOUR ECON BP 113 EP 129 PY 2001 PD JUN VL 19 IS 2 GA 423UQ UT ISI:000168196500002 ER PT J AU BRKLACICH, M SMIT, B TI IMPLICATIONS OF CHANGES IN CLIMATIC AVERAGES AND VARIABILITY ON FOOD-PRODUCTION OPPORTUNITIES IN ONTARIO, CANADA SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 UNIV GUELPH,LAND EVALUAT GRP,GUELPH N1G 2W1,ONTARIO,CANADA. UNIV GUELPH,DEPT GEOG,GUELPH N1G 2W1,ONTARIO,CANADA. RP BRKLACICH, M, AGR CANADA,LAND RESOURCE RES CTR,OTTAWA K1A 0C6,ONTARIO,CANADA. AB This paper explores the implications of changes in climatic averages and a range in precipitation levels on food production opportunities at the farm, regional and provincial levels for the province of Ontario. A doubling in atmospheric CO2 or its equivalent would contribute to extended frost-free seasons throughout Ontario, and possibly increase year-to-year variability in precipitation. At the farm level, these changes imply greater fluctuations in annual farm profits. The benefits of longer frost-free seasons would be impaired during years with relatively low precipitation, and under these conditions, the security of the province's food supply would be at risk. CR 1982, PUBLICATION ONRATIO, V20 1983, CHANGING CLIMATE REP ARTHUR LM, 1988, IMPLICATIONS CLIMATE BERGTHORSSON P, 1988, IMPACT CLIMATIC VARI, V1, P381 BROOKS CEP, 1943, Q J R METEOROL SOC, V69, P160 CLARK WC, 1985, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V7, P5 COHEN SJ, 1986, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V8, P135 HANSEN J, 1983, MON WEATHER REV, V111, P609 HENGEVELD HC, 1987, UNDERSTANDING CO2 CL HENGEVELD HC, 1989, 20TH P ANN M WINN KELLOGG WW, 1987, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V10, P113 KIRKWOOD V, 1983, LAND RESOURCE CONTRI, V8268 MARCHAND D, 1988, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V12, P107 MOORE TR, 1988, CAN GEOGR, V32, P178 MYERS N, 1988, ENVIRON CONSERV, V15, P293 PFEIFFER W, 1976, ONTARIO AUTOMATIC CR PITOVRANOV SE, 1988, IMPACT CLIMATIC VARI, V1, P615 ROSENZWEIG C, 1985, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V7, P367 SELIRIO IS, 1979, AGR METEOROL, V20, P99 SMIT B, 1988, GEOFORUM, V19, P245 SMIT B, 1988, J ENVIRON QUAL, V17, P519 SONKA ST, 1987, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V11, P291 STEWART TR, 1985, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V7, P159 WALL G, 1988, IMPLICATIONS CLIMATI WARRICK RA, 1981, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V3, P387 WATERSTONE M, 1985, GEOFORUM, V16, P301 WILSON CA, 1987, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V10, P11 YOSHINO MM, 1988, IMPACT CLIMATIC VARI, V1, P723 NR 28 TC 6 J9 CLIMATIC CHANGE BP 1 EP 21 PY 1992 PD JAN VL 20 IS 1 GA HC197 UT ISI:A1992HC19700002 ER PT J AU CASTANOS, H LOMNITZ, C TI UNPLANNED AND UNFORESEEN EFFECTS OF INSTABILITIES IN THE NATURE-SOCIETY SYSTEM AS POSSIBLE CAUSES OF EARTHQUAKE DISASTERS SO NATURAL HAZARDS LA English DT Article RP CASTANOS, H, NATL AUTONOMOUS UNIV MEXICO,MEXICO CITY 04510,DF,MEXICO. AB The nature-society system is proposed as the relevant analytical unit for the sociological study of disasters. Like other complex systems, this system has emergent properties: its instabilities are the disasters. They often arise as a result of adoption by a community of specific technologies, e.g., housing technologies, that turn out to be unstable in the presence of critical natural or social changes. The following earthquake disasters were caused by unplanned and unforeseen features of housing or siting technologies: Huaxian 1556 (caves in loess), Yungay 1970 (siting in the path of an avalanche), and Mexico 1985 (high-rise buildings on soft ground). Disasters have an archaeology, in the sense that the instabilities in the nature-society system are not static. This is demonstrated by tracing the 1985 Mexico earthquake disaster back to decisions on urban planning taken after 1521. It is not enough to know the hazard and the vulnerability in order to understand disasters. Technological solutions also have a local history. CR ALLEY EE, 1992, MANAGEMENT MASS BURN ANSARI SA, 1992, MANAGEMENT MASS BURN DAVIES P, 1989, NEW PHYSICS DOMBROWSKI W, 1987, SOCIOLOGY DISASTERS DYNES RR, 1994, INT J MASS EMERGENCI, V12, P5 FINN WDL, 1991, P INT S EFFECTS SURF, V1, P3 GUNN SWA, 1990, MULTILINGUAL DICT DI HEWITT K, 1983, INTERPRETATIONS CALA, P3 KATES RW, 1970, 14 U TOR DEP GEOGR W LOMNITZ C, 1994, FUNDAMENTALS EARTHQU MARTINEZ E, 1606, REPERTORIO TIEMPS HI QUARANTELLI EL, 1991, 162 DIS RES CTR PREL SOROKIN P, 1942, MAN SOC CALAMITY WATTS MJ, 1983, INTERPRETATIONS CALA WHITE GF, 1975, ASSESSMENT RES NATUR, V1, P1 WINCHESTER P, 1992, POWER CHOICE VULNERA NR 16 TC 0 J9 NATURAL HAZARDS BP 45 EP 56 PY 1995 PD JAN VL 11 IS 1 GA RD658 UT ISI:A1995RD65800003 ER PT J AU Turner, MD TI Political ecology and the moral dimensions of "resource conflicts": the case of farmer-herder conflicts in the Sahel SO POLITICAL GEOGRAPHY LA English DT Article C1 Univ Wisconsin, Dept Geog, Madison, WI 53706 USA. RP Turner, MD, Univ Wisconsin, Dept Geog, 384 Sch Hall,550 Pk St, Madison, WI 53706 USA. AB Conflicts associated with natural resource use are common in rural areas of Africa. Political ecology's analytical and methodological foci on these conflicts is shared by other quite different schools of thought that strongly influence policies on environment and development. The influential "environmental security" and "common property management" perspectives generally conceptualize resource-related conflicts as scarcity-driven while political ecologists have made major contributions toward more multidimensional, complex views about the genesis of resource-related conflict. This paper explores two moral dimensions of resource conflict. First, it continues the tradition within political ecology of questioning popular notions of resource conflict. It does so by analyzing farmer-herder conflict in the Sahel-a type of resource-related conflict that seemingly fits the view that conflict is generated from increased competition over a dwindling pool of resources. By seriously engaging with the materiality of agropastoral production, this paper illuminates the complex relationships between political interests, moralities, and resource access that underlie these conflicts. Second, this paper considers the ethics of how we portray resource conflict. In the present policy context in Africa, overly-simplistic treatments of resource conflict by political ecologists or others may unintentionally support programs that are likely to negatively impact the human subjects of research, conservation or development. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *RES INV MAN LTD, 1987, REF SAH *WORLD BANK AFR DI, 1991, POP AGR ENV NEX SUBS BA AH, 1984, EMPIRE P DUMACINA 18 BARRIERE O, 2002, DROIT INVENTER BASSETT TJ, 1988, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V78, P433 BASSETT TJ, 1994, CAH ETUD AFR, V34, P147 BEAUVILAIN A, 1977, PEUL DALLOL BOSSO BENNETT O, 1991, GREENWAR ENV CONFLIC BENOIT M, 1999, ESPACE POPULATIONS S, V1, P29 BERNUS E, 1974, CAHIERS ORSTOM SH, V11, P119 BERRY S, 1989, AFRICA, V59, P41 BIERSCHENK T, 1997, HUM ORGAN, V56, P238 BLAIKIE PM, 1987, LAND DEGRADATION SOC BLENCH RM, 1996, NATURAL RESOURCE PER, V15, P1 BREUSERS M, 1998, J MOD AFR STUD, V36, P357 BROAD R, 1994, WORLD DEV, V22, P811 BROWN WA, 1969, THESIS U WISCONSIN M BRYANT RL, 1996, 3 WORLD POLITICAL EC CARNEY JA, 1992, DEV CHANGE, V23, P67 CISSE S, 1990, 1 CTR RECH AGR CRONON W, 1983, CHANGES LAND DALBY S, 1996, ECUMENE, V3, P472 DUPIRE M, 1972, FACTEURS HUMAINS EC ENSMINGER J, 1992, MAKING MARKET I TRAN ESCOBAR A, 1999, CURR ANTHROPOL, V40, P1 FAIRHEAD J, 2001, VIOLENT ENV, P213 FALLOUX F, 1983, PROBLEMES FONCIERS D FALLOUX F, 1988, DESERTIFICATION CONT, P10 FERGUSON J, 1994, ANTIPOLITICS MACHINE GADO B, 1980, ZARMATAREY CONTRIBUT GALLAIS J, 1967, DELTA INTERIEUR NIGE GALLAIS J, 1972, ETUDES GEOGRAPHIE TR, P301 GOLDMAN M, 1998, PRIVATIZING NATURE P GRAYZEL JA, 1977, THESIS U OREGON EUGE HABOU A, 1991, TRANSFERT CAPITAL BE HARDIN G, 1968, SCIENCE, V162, P1243 HARDIN G, 1991, COMMONS TRAGEDY, P162 HEASLEY L, 1996, SOC NATUR RESOUR, V9, P31 HENDRICKSON D, 1997, SUPPORTING LOCAL CAP HOBSBAWN E, 1983, INVENTION TRADITION HOMERDIXON TF, 1994, INT SECURITY, V19, P5 HOMERDIXON TF, 1999, ENV SCARCITY VIOLENC HOROWITZ MM, 1972, J ASIAN AFR STUD, V7, P105 HUSSEIN K, 1999, DEV POLICY REV, V17, P397 KAPLAN RD, 1994, ATLANTIC MONTHLY FEB, P44 KINTZ D, 1985, J AFRICANISTES, V55, P93 LAYA D, 1991, J SOC AFRICANISTS, V61, P65 LEACH M, 1999, WORLD DEV, V27, P225 LELE SM, 1991, WORLD DEV, V19, P607 LEM FH, 1943, TERRE ISLAM, P51 LOYANCE A, 1947, NOTES PEULS GOURMANT MARTIN RE, 1993, SHORT COURSES PALEON, V6, P34 MCCAY BM, 1987, QUESTION COMMONS MELVILLE EGK, 1994, PLAGUE SHEEP ENV CON MOORE DS, 1993, ECON GEOGR, V69, P380 MYERS N, 1996, ULTIMATE SECURITY EN NEUMANN RP, 1998, IMPOSING WILDERNESS NGAIDO T, 1996, THESIS U WISCONSIN M NIAMIRFULLER M, 1999, MANAGING MOBILITY AF OAKERSON RJ, 1992, MAKING COMMONS WORK, P41 OSTROM E, 1990, GOVT COMMONS EVOLUTI PAINTER T, 1994, AFRICA, V64, P447 PARKER R, 1991, J MOD AFR STUD, V29, P155 PEET R, 1996, LIBERATION ECOLOGIES PELUSO N, 1990, RICH FORESTS POOR PE PELUSO NL, 2001, VIOLENT ENV PELUSO NL, 2001, VIOLENT ENV, P3 PERCIVAL V, 1998, ECOVIOLENCE LINKS EN, P109 PETERS P, 1987, QUESTION COMMONS CUL, P171 POWELL JM, 1996, AGR SYST, V52, P143 RAPPAPORT RA, 1967, PIGS ANCESTORS RITUA, V1, P1 RIBOT JC, 1998, DEV CHANGE, V29, P307 RIDDELL JC, 1982, 77 LAND TEN CTR RIESMAN P, 1977, FREEDOM FULANI SOCIA ROBBINS P, 2003, HUM ECOL, V31, P233 ROCHELEAU D, 1996, FEMINIST POLITICAL E RUNGE CF, 1986, WORLD DEV, V14, P623 SANTOIR C, 1990, CAHIERS SCI HUMAINES, V26, P553 SCHMITZ J, 1993, CAH SCI HUM, V29, P591 SCHROEDER RA, 1999, SHADY PRACTICES AGRO SIMPSON JR, 1984, AFR STUD REV, V27, P61 SINCLAIR ARE, 1985, CAN J ZOOL, V63, P987 STOTT P, 2000, POLITICAL ECOLOGY SC TAYLOR PJ, 1997, SOCIAL EPISTEMOLOGY, V11, P111 THOMPSON EP, 1991, CUSTOMS COMMON TOULMIN C, 1983, HERDERS FARMERS FARM TURNER MD, IN PRESS FORESTS FIE TURNER MD, 1992, THESIS U CALIFORNIA TURNER MD, 1999, LAND DEGRAD DEV, V10, P343 TURNER MD, 1999, SOC NATUR RESOUR, V12, P643 VANDENBRINK R, 1995, J DEV STUD, V31, P373 VANDRIEL A, 1997, AGR ELEVEURS NORD BE, P127 WALKER PA, 2001, SOC NATUR RESOUR, V14, P411 WARNER M, 1998, NATURAL RESOURCE PER, V35 WATTS MJ, 1983, SILENT VIOLENCE FOOD WHITE F, 1983, VEGETATION AFRICA ZERNER C, 1996, VALUING LOCAL KNOWLE, P68 ZIMMERER KS, 1993, ECON GEOGR, V69, P312 ZIMMERER KS, 2003, POLITICAL ECOLOGY IN ZUPPAN M, 1994, RURAL EXT B, V4, P12 NR 100 TC 0 J9 POLIT GEOGR BP 863 EP 889 PY 2004 PD SEP VL 23 IS 7 GA 875LU UT ISI:000225422600004 ER PT J AU Swart, RJ Mitchell, J Morita, T Raper, S TI Stabilisation scenarios for climate impact assessment SO GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS LA English DT Editorial Material C1 Natl Inst Publ Hlth & Environm, NL-3720 BA Bilthoven, Netherlands. RP Swart, RJ, Natl Inst Publ Hlth & Environm, POB 1, NL-3720 BA Bilthoven, Netherlands. CR *IPCC, 2000, SPEC REP EM SCEN MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 *IPCC, 2001, CLIM CHANG 2001 MIT *IPCC, 2001, CLIM CHANG 2001 SCI *IPCC, 2001, CLIM CHANG 2001 SYNT PARRY ML, 2001, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V11, P1 NR 6 TC 3 J9 GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANGE BP 155 EP 165 PY 2002 PD OCT VL 12 IS 3 GA 612KX UT ISI:000179075400002 ER PT J AU van Aalst, MK TI The impacts of climate change on the risk of natural disasters SO DISASTERS LA English DT Article C1 Red Cross Red Crescent Ctr Climate Change & Disas, NL-2502 KC The Hague, Netherlands. RP van Aalst, MK, Red Cross Red Crescent Ctr Climate Change & Disas, POB 28120, NL-2502 KC The Hague, Netherlands. AB Human emissions of greenhouse gases are already changing our climate. This paper provides an overview of the relation between climate change and weather extremes, and examines three specific cases where recent acute events have stimulated debate on the potential role of climate change: the European heatwave of 2003; the risk of inland flooding, such as recently in Central Europe and Great Britain; and the harsh Atlantic hurricane seasons of 2004 and 2005. Furthermore, it briefly assesses the relation between climate change and El Nino, and the potential of abrupt climate change. Several trends in weather extremes are sufficiently clear to inform risk reduction efforts. In many instances, however, the potential increases in extreme events due to climate change come on top of alarming rises in vulnerability. Hence, the additional risks due to climate change should not be analysed or treated in isolation, but instead integrated into broader efforts to reduce the risk of natural disasters. CR *IFRC, 2004, WORLD DIS REP 2004, P36 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 *IPCC, 2001, CLIM CHANG 2001 MIT *IPCC, 2001, CLIM CHANG 2001 SCI *IPCC, 2001, CLIM CHANG 2001 SCI, P1 *IPCC, 2001, CLIM CHANG 2001 SYNT *IRI, 2005, ENSO INF *NAT CLIM DAT CTR, 2004, CLIM 2004 ATL HURR S *NAT CLIM DAT CTR, 2005, CLIM 2005 ATL HURR S *WMO, 2004, WMO STAT GLOB CLIM 2 EMANUEL K, 2005, NATURE, V436, P686 GRAUMANN A, 2005, HURRICANE KATRINA CL MARSH TJ, 2001, WEATHER, V56, P343 MUDELSEE M, 2003, NATURE, V425, P166 PALMER TN, 2002, NATURE, V415, P512 PIELKE RA, 2005, B AM METEOROL SOC, V86, P1571 SPONBERG K, 1999, COMPENDIUM CLIMATE V STOTT PA, 2004, NATURE, V432, P610 TRENBERTH K, 2005, SCIENCE, V308, P1753 VANOLDENBORGH GJ, 2005, OCEAN SCI, V1, P81 WEBSTER PJ, 2005, SCIENCE, V309, P1844 NR 21 TC 0 J9 DISASTERS BP 5 EP 18 PY 2006 PD MAR VL 30 IS 1 GA 017LA UT ISI:000235693900002 ER PT J AU Bocchi, S Disperati, SP Rossi, S TI Environmental security: A geographic information system analysis approach-the case of Kenya SO ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article C1 State Univ Milan, Dept Crop Sci, I-20133 Milan, Italy. RP Rossi, S, State Univ Milan, Dept Crop Sci, I-20133 Milan, Italy. AB Studies into the relationships between environmental factors and violence or conflicts constitute a very debated research field called environmental security. Several authors think that environmental scarcity, which is scarcity of renewable resources, can contribute to generate violence or social unrest, particularly within states scarcely endowed with technical know-how and social structures, such as developing countries. In this work, we referred to the theoretical model developed by the Environmental Change and Acute Conflict Project. Our goal was to use easily available spatial databases to map the various sources of environmental scarcity through geographic information systems, in order to locate the areas apparently most at risk of suffering negative social effects and their consequences in terms of internal security. The analysis was carried out at a subnational level and applied to the case of Kenya. A first phase of the work included a careful selection of databases relative to renewable resources. Spatial operations among these data allowed us to obtain new information on the availability of renewable resources (cropland, forests, water), on the present and foreseen demographic pressure, as well as on the social and technical ingenuity. The results made it possible to identify areas suffering from scarcity of one or more renewable resources, indicating different levels of gravity. Accounts from Kenya seem to confirm our results, reporting clashes between tribal groups over the access to scarce resources in areas that our work showed to be at high risk. CR *COMM EUR COMM, 2004, COM2004516 COMM EUR *ECSP, 1997, 3 ECSP *FAO, 1997, FAO LAND WATER DIGIT, V2 *FAO, 1998, FAO LAND WATER DIGIT, V1 *FAO, 2000, FAO LAND WATER DIGIT, V11 *FAO, 2001, FAO LAND WATER DIGIT, V13 *GLASOD, 1991, US GUID GLOB DIG DAT *KEN WILDL SERV, 1999, AER SURV DESTR MT KE *ORNL, 2002, LANDSC GLOB POP 1998 *REP KEN, 2001, EC SURV *REP KEN, 2002, DISTR POV RED STRAT *UN, 2003, INT REP SECR GEN PRE *UNDP KEN, 2001, KEN HUM DEV REP 2001 *UNDP, 2003, HUM DEV REP 2003 *UNEP, 2002, GLOB ENV OUTL 3 GEO3 *UNEP, 2004, UND ENV CONFL COOP U *US DEP STAT, 1997, ENV DIPL ENV US FOR *WCED, 1987, OUR COMM FUT BAECHLER G, 1998, ENV CHANGE SECURITY, P24 BARBIER EB, 1999, RESOURCE SCARCITY IN BARNETT J, 2000, REV INT STUD, V26, P271 BRUNEAU R, 2004, 5202 INAF CANTER MJ, 2002, GLOBAL ENV POLITICS, V2, P40 CHRISTOPHER W, 1997, ENV CHANGE SECURITY, P186 CLINTON W, 1994, ENV CHANGE SECURITY, P51 CLINTON W, 1998, NATL SECURITY STRATE COLLIER P, 2004, OXFORD ECON PAP, V56, P563 CONCA K, 1994, PEACE CHANGE, V19, P91 DABELKO GD, 2000, STATE OF THE ART REV DABELKO GD, 2004, ENV CHANGE SECURITY, P3 DALE VH, 2004, ECOHEALTH, V1, P119 DESOUZA RM, 2004, ENV CHANGE SECURITY, P35 DESOYSA I, 1999, 199 PRIO DESOYSA I, 2000, 41 ANN CONV INT STUD DOBSON JE, 2000, PHOTOGRAMM ENG REM S, V66, P849 EHRLICH PR, 1968, POPULATION BOMB EHRLICH PR, 1990, POPULATION EXPLOSION ELHANCE AP, 2000, INT NEGOTIATION, V5, P201 FISCHER G, 2002, GLOBAL AGROECOLOGICA GAULIN T, 2000, ENV CHANGE SECURITY, P104 GIORDANO MA, 2003, NAT RESOUR FORUM, V27, P163 GLEDITSCH NP, 1997, NATO ASI SERIES, V33 GLEDITSCH NP, 1998, J PEACE RES, V35, P381 GLEDITSCH NP, 2002, J PEACE RES, V39, P615 GOBIN A, 2003, 94 EEA GOLDSTONE JA, 2000, STATE FAILURE TASK F GRIFFITHS F, 1997, ENV CHANGE SECURITY, P15 GUPTA V, 1995, INT SECURITY, V20, P94 HASTENRATH S, 1992, ANN GLACIOL, V16, P127 HASTENRATH S, 1995, B I FRANCAIS ETUDES, V24, P633 HAUGE W, 1998, J PEACE RES, V35, P299 HOMERDIXON T, 1995, INT SECURITY, V20, P189 HOMERDIXON T, 1995, POPUL DEV REV, V21, P587 HOMERDIXON TF, 1991, INT SECURITY, V16, P76 HOMERDIXON TF, 1994, INT SECURITY, V19, P5 HOMERDIXON TF, 1999, ENV SCARCITY VIOLENC HOMERDIXON TF, 2003, ENV CHANGE SECURITY, P89 JIMERSON B, 2000, VIEWING EARTH ROLE S KAHL CH, 1998, INT SECURITY, V23, P80 KAPLAN RD, 1994, ATLANTIC MONTHLY FEB, V273, P44 LEVY MA, 1995, INT SECURITY, V20, P35 LIBISZEWSKI S, 1992, 1 ENCOP MALTHUS T, 1798, ESSAY PRINCIPLE POPU MARCHETTI R, 1993, ECOLOGIA APPL MATTHEW RA, 1997, ENV CHANGE SECURITY, P66 MATTHEW RA, 2004, UNEP UNDERSTANDING E, P5 MCNAMARA R, 1968, ESSENCE SECURITY MILLER J, 2002, P PECORA 15 LAND SAT MYERS N, 1994, SCARCITY ABUNDANCE D OHLSSON L, 1999, THESIS U GOTEBORG GO OHLSSON L, 2000, LIVELIHOOD CONFLICTS OLDEMAN LR, 1990, WORLD MAP STATUS HUM PELUSO NL, 2001, VIOLENT ENV PKALYA R, 2003, CONFLICT NO KENYA FO SAAD S, 1995, GREEN PLANET BLUES E, P73 SCHWARTZ DM, 2000, ENV CHANGE SECURITY, P77 SIMON J, 1981, ULTIMATE RESOURCE SOYSA I, 2002, GLOBAL ENV POLITICS, V2, P1 SUTTON P, 1997, COMPUTERS ENV URBAN, V21, P227 TOEPFER K, 2004, PREFACE WAEVER O, 1995, SECURITY, P6 YOUNG JAT, 1991, 1386G3 USGS NR 82 TC 0 J9 ENVIRON MANAGE BP 186 EP 199 PY 2006 PD FEB VL 37 IS 2 GA 006OJ UT ISI:000234906500004 ER PT J AU Halvorson, SJ TI "Placing" health risks in the Karakoram - Local perceptions of disease, dependency, and social change in Northern Pakistan SO MOUNTAIN RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT LA English DT Article C1 Univ Montana, Dept Geog, Missoula, MT 59812 USA. RP Halvorson, SJ, Univ Montana, Dept Geog, Social Sci Bldg, Missoula, MT 59812 USA. AB This article examines local perceptions of health risks in a mountain community in the Karakoram of Northern Pakistan. Specifically, it aims to show how the tremendous social and economic transformations taking place in this region are experienced and understood by the people most affected by them. The case study draws from ethnographic data collected through a range of methods, including personal narratives, focus groups, interviews, household surveys, conversations, and participant observations. Central to this analysis is the role that social change plays in mediating and shaping residents' worries, and perceived vulnerabilities within this particular economic and cultural context. Furthermore, the effects of the global economy on how people assess their dependency on external factors and processes are explored, including attention to the ways in which newly introduced products and technologies raise concerns about product safety, health security, and community cohesiveness. This analysis of local narratives of health risks illustrates these points and demonstrates how residents' constructions of risk provide a basis for understanding local debates and doubts about how "development" and modernity are being approached in this mountainous region. CR *WORLD BANK, 1996, AG KHAN RUR SUPP PRO AZHARHEWITT F, 1998, MT RES DEV, V18, P265 AZHARHEWITT F, 1999, MT RES DEV, V19, P141 BECK U, 1999, WORLD RISK SOC BJONNESS IM, 1986, MT RES DEV, V6, P277 BLAIKIE PM, 1994, RISK NATURAL HAZARDS, V1, P1 BOHLE HG, 1998, MT RES DEV, V18, P321 BUTZ D, 1993, THESIS MCMASER U DOUGLAS M, 1982, RISK CULTURE SELECTI DOUGLAS M, 1992, RISK BLAME ESSAYS CU FRANKENBERG R, 1993, KNOWLEDGE POWER PRAC, P219 GIFFORD SM, 1986, ANTHR EPIDEMIOLOGY, P213 HALVORSON SJ, 2000, THESIS U COLORADO BO HEWITT K, 1997, REGIONS RISK GEOGRAP, V1, P1 IVES JD, 1997, MOUNTAINS WORLD GLOB, P61 JODHA NS, 1995, TRANSITION SUSTAINAB KREUTZMANN H, 1985, HUNZA LANDLICHE ENTW KREUTZMANN H, 1993, MT RES DEV, V13, P19 KREUTZMANN H, 1995, MT RES DEV, V15, P213 MACDONALD K, 1994, THESIS U WATERLOO WA MACDONALD KI, 1998, HUM ECOL, V26, P287 MESSERIL B, 1997, MOUNTAINS WORLD GLOB SARRINEN TF, 1984, 209 U CHIC DEP GEOGR SLOVIC P, 1987, SCIENCE, V236, P280 NR 24 TC 0 J9 MT RES DEV BP 271 EP 277 PY 2003 PD AUG VL 23 IS 3 GA 712FV UT ISI:000184787800014 ER PT J AU Smolka, A TI Natural disasters and the challenge of extreme events: risk management from an insurance perspective SO PHILOSOPHICAL TRANSACTIONS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY A-MATHEMATICAL PHYSICAL AND ENGINEERING SCIENCES LA English DT Article C1 Munich Reinsurance Co, Geophys & Hydrol Risks, D-80791 Munich, Germany. RP Smolka, A, Munich Reinsurance Co, Geophys & Hydrol Risks, Koniginstr 10, D-80791 Munich, Germany. AB Loss statistics for natural disasters demonstrate, also after correction for inflation, a dramatic increase of the loss burden since 1950. This increase is driven by a concentration of population and values in urban areas, the development of highly exposed coastal and valley regions, the complexity of modern societies and technologies and probably, also by the beginning consequences of global warming. This process will continue unless remedial action will be taken. Managing the risk from natural disasters starts with identification of the hazards. The next step is the evaluation of the risk, where risk is a function of hazard, exposed values or human lives and the vulnerability of the exposed objects. Probabilistic computer models have been developed for the proper assessment of risks since the late 1980s. The final steps are controlling and financing future losses. Natural disaster insurance plays a key role in this context, but also private parties and governments have to share a part of the risk. A main responsibility of governments is to formulate regulations for building construction and land use. The insurance sector and the state have to act together in order to create incentives for building and business owners to take loss prevention measures. A further challenge for the insurance sector is to transfer a portion of the risk to the capital markets, and to serve better the needs of the poor. Catastrophe bonds and microinsurance are the answer to such challenges. The mechanisms described above have been developed to cope with well-known disasters like earthquakes, windstorms and floods. They can be applied, in principle, also to less well investigated and less frequent extreme disasters: submarine slides, great volcanic eruptions, meteorite impacts and tsunamis which may arise from all these hazards. But there is an urgent need to improve the state of knowledge on these more exotic hazards in order to reduce the high uncertainty in actual risk evaluation to an acceptable level. Due to the rarity of such extreme events, specific risk prevention measure.,, are hardly justified with exception of attempts to divert earth-orbit crossing meteorites from their dangerous path. For the industry it is particularly important to achieve full transparency as regards covered and non-covered risks and to define in a systematic manner the limits of insurability for super-disasters. CR *MUN REINS COMP, 1998, WORLD MAP NAT HAZ *MUN REINS COMP, 2003, NATC GUID MR DAT NAT *MUN REINS COMP, 2005, TOP ANN DIS REV 2004 *NAT GEOPH DAT CTR, TSUN DAT BRYDEN HL, 2005, NATURE, V438, P655 CHAPMAN CR, 2003, P OECD WORKSH NEAR E CHURCHILL C, 2006, REP SUMM MICR C SCHL GISLER G, 2005, P 2 INT TSUN S CHAN, P65 GUELKAN P, 2001, P WHART WORLD BANK C HARBITZ CB, 1992, MAR GEOL, V105, P1 KUNREUTHER HC, 2000, P 6 INT C SEISM ZON LEFRIANT A, 2001, THESIS U PARIS 7 MASON BG, 2004, B VOLCANOL, V66, P735 MASSON DG, 2006, PHILOS T R SOC A, V364, P2009 MCMURTRY GM, 2004, GEOLOGY, V32, P741 MORRISON D, 2006, PHIL T R SOC A, V364 SCHEFFERS A, 2003, EARTH-SCI REV, V63, P83 SELF S, 2006, PHIL T R SOC A, V364 WARD SN, 2000, ICARUS, V145, P64 WARD SN, 2001, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V28, P397 YUNAK H, 2004, P AIO UNCTAD C INS R NR 21 TC 2 J9 PHILOS TRANS R SOC A BP 2147 EP 2165 PY 2006 PD AUG 15 VL 364 IS 1845 GA 075YM UT ISI:000239923700018 ER PT J AU Alexandrov, VA TI Vulnerability and adaptation of agronomic systems in Bulgaria SO CLIMATE RESEARCH LA English DT Article C1 Bulgarian Acad Sci, Natl Inst Meteorol & Hydrol, BG-1784 Sofia, Bulgaria. RP Alexandrov, VA, Bulgarian Acad Sci, Natl Inst Meteorol & Hydrol, BG-1784 Sofia, Bulgaria. AB Vulnerability and adaptation assessments of major agricultural crops under climate change were carried out in Bulgaria through the US Country Studies Program. Several climate change scenarios using General Circulation Model (GCM) outputs were created. Annual temperatures in the country are projected to rise between 2.9 (HOGS model) and 5.8 degreesC (UK89 model) under effective doubling of CO2. Precipitation is expected to increase during the winter and to decrease during the warm half of the year. Under equilibrium 2 x CO2, the GCM climate change scenarios project an increase in the agroclimatic potential; however, warming would cause decreases in grain yield of winter wheat Triticum aestivum L. and especially maize Zea mays L. Simulated adaptation measures-such as zoning of crop production in agricultural land areas with elevation below 1000 m, changing planting dates, altering varieties, changing optimum value and dates of fertilizer application, and irrigation-were considered as potential responses that may modify any effects of climate change on crop production in Bulgaria. An action plan in Bulgarian agriculture under climate change was developed in cooperation with the Ministry of Agriculture, Forest and Agrarian Reform. Major points of the plan are a decrease in greenhouse gas emissions (reducing methane emissions produced by biological fermentation in stock breeding and rice cultivation; decreasing methane emissions by effective utilization of manure; improving fertilization using mineral fertilizers; decreasing the carbon emissions containing gasses; and retaining soil carbon) and some adaptation measures. CR *IBSNAT, 1991, DEC SUPP SYST AGR TR *IBSNAT, 1993, IBSNAT DEC *INT BENCHM SIT NE, 1990, NETW REP 1987 90 *INT PAN CLIM CHAN, 1997, REG IMP CLIM CHANG A *REP BULG, 1996, VULN CLIM CHANG AD S, CH6 ALEXANDROV VA, 1993, BULGARIAN J METEOROL, V4, P132 ALEXANDROV VA, 1993, P INT S PREC EV SLOV, V2, P99 ALEXANDROV VA, 1997, BULGARIAN J METEOROL, V8, P104 ALEXANDROV VA, 1997, OPERATIONAL WATER MA, P237 ALEXANDROV VA, 1997, P 5 NAT C GRAIN KOST, V4, P26 ALEXANDROV VA, 1998, P NATL C DIS SOF, P5 ALEXANDROV VA, 1997, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V36, P135 BROWNE MW, 1993, MULTIVARIATE ANAL FU, V2, P171 GULINOVA N, 1974, METHODS AGR CLIMATOL HARRISON P, 1995, CLIMATE CHANGE AGR E HOUGHTON J, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995 KAISER HM, 1993, AGR DIMENSIONS GLOBA KOLEVA E, 1993, P INT S PREC EV SLOV, V2, P91 PEIRIS DR, 1996, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V79, P271 RAEV I, 1996, ASSESSMENT FOREST PO, P22 ROSENZWEIG C, 1994, NATURE, V367, P133 ROSENZWEIG C, 1995, CLIMATE CHANGE AGR A ROSENZWEIG C, 1995, CONSEQUENCES, V1, P22 SLAVOV N, 1996, BULGARIAN J AGR SCI, V2, P37 SLAVOV N, 1997, ACTION PLAN AGR CLIM, P14 SLAVOV N, 1997, COMP REND ACAD BULGA, V50, P31 SMITH JB, 1996, ADAPTING CLIMATE CHA TSUJI G, 1994, DSSAT VERSION 3, V1 WATSON RT, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, V1, P1 WEI Y, 1994, 943523 ASAE NR 30 TC 0 J9 CLIMATE RES BP 161 EP 173 PY 1999 PD AUG 27 VL 12 IS 2-3 GA V3096 UT ISI:000171723000014 ER PT J AU McSweeney, K TI Forest product sale as natural insurance: The effects of household characteristics and the nature of shock in eastern Honduras SO SOCIETY & NATURAL RESOURCES LA English DT Article C1 Ohio State Univ, Dept Geog, Columbus, OH 43210 USA. RP McSweeney, K, Ohio State Univ, Dept Geog, 1036 Derby Hall,154 N Oval Mall, Columbus, OH 43210 USA. AB The rural poor are known to turn to tropical forest resources in times of need. But what explains differential use of this "natural insurance'' policy among households? Drawing from a 1998 survey of 116 indigenous households in Honduras, this article shows that households sell forest products to pay for crop shortfalls and illness, but that loans from kin are a more common way to weather calamity. Young households with few liquidatable assets and little land are the most likely to sell forest products to self-insure. Development policies that build on the "natural insurance'' concept should anticipate major variation within target populations; meanwhile, conservationists should recognize that the lack of formal safety nets in rural communities will motivate the sale of forest products. CR *CIFOR, 2002, INT C RUR LIV FOR BI *WORLD BANK, 2002, DEV GOALS AGRAWAL A, 1999, WORLD DEV, V27, P629 ANDERSON AB, 1991, SUBSIDY NATURE PALM ARNOLD JEM, 2001, ECOL ECON, V39, P437 ASTONE NM, 1999, POPUL DEV REV, V25, P1 BARHAM BL, 1999, UNASYLVA, V50, P34 BARRACLOUGH SL, 1995, FORESTS LIVELIHOODS BYRON N, 1999, WORLD DEV, V27, P789 CHAMBERS R, 1989, WORLD DEV, V17, P329 COOMES OT, 2001, FOREST ECOL MANAG, V140, P39 DEBEER JH, 1996, EC VALUE NONTIMBER F ELLIS F, 1998, J DEV STUD, V35, P1 GODOY R, 1996, HUM ECOL, V24, P395 GODOY R, 1997, WORLD DEV, V25, P977 GODOY R, 1998, ETHNOLOGY, V37, P55 GODOY R, 1998, HUM ECOL, V26, P649 GODOY R, 1999, UNPUB DOES EC DEV IN GODOY RA, 2001, INDIANS MARKETS RAIN HALL A, 2000, AMAZONIA CROSSROADS KANT S, 1996, J ECON STUD, V23, P31 KANT S, 1997, J SUSTAINABLE FOREST, V4, P33 KENNEDY DP, 2000, HUM ORGAN, V59, P311 LANJOUW P, 1999, EC DEV CULTURAL CHAN, V48, P91 MCSWEENEY K, 2000, THESIS MCGILL U MONT MCSWEENEY K, 2002, FOCUS GEOGR, V46, P15 MCSWEENEY K, 2002, GEOGR REV, V92, P398 MCSWEENEY K, 2002, PROF GEOGR, V54, P158 MURPHY CM, 1997, MOREANA, V34, P2 PATTANAYAK SK, 2001, LAND ECON, V77, P595 PERZ SG, 2001, POPUL RES POLICY REV, V20, P159 PICHON FJ, 1997, WORLD DEV, V25, P67 REARDON T, 1995, WORLD DEV, V23, P1495 RUBEN R, 2001, WORLD DEV, V29, P549 SCHERR SJ, 2002, MAKING MARKETS WORK SCHMIDT R, 1999, FORESTS FIGHT POVERT TAKASAKI Y, 2000, WORLD DEV, V28, P1961 TAKASAKI Y, 2001, SOC NATUR RESOUR, V14, P291 TAKASAKI Y, 2002, 2 WORLD C ENV RES EC TRESIERRA JC, 1999, FOREST RESOURCE POLI, P135 UPTON M, 1996, EC TROPICAL FARMING WICKRAMASINGHE A, 1996, HUM ECOL, V24, P493 WUNDER S, 2001, WORLD DEV, V29, P1817 NR 43 TC 1 J9 SOC NATUR RESOUR BP 39 EP 56 PY 2004 PD JAN VL 17 IS 1 GA 749QE UT ISI:000186930800003 ER PT J AU Yoffe, S Fiske, G Giordano, M Giordano, M Larson, K Stahl, K Wolf, AT TI Geography of international water conflict and cooperation: Data sets and applications SO WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH LA English DT Article C1 Woods Hole Res Ctr, Woods Hole, MA 02543 USA. Int Water Management Inst, Colombo, Sri Lanka. Amer Assoc Advancement Sci, Washington, DC USA. RP Yoffe, S, Oregon State Univ, Dept Geosci, Amer Assoc Advancement Sci, Corvallis, OR 97331 USA. AB The Transboundary Freshwater Dispute Database provides a framework for quantitative, global-scale explorations of the relationship between freshwater resources and international cooperation and conflict. Projects were designed to test common theories linking freshwater resources to cooperation and conflict, in particular within the context of geography and environmental security. The projects, which follow in sequence, consider three main hypotheses on the likelihood and intensity of water resource disputes. To test these hypotheses, a unique set of tools was created that links water-specific event data with a geographic information system (GIS) that meshes biophysical, political, and socioeconomic data sets at the river basin and other scales. There are three linked data sets: (1) an event data set documenting historical water relations, including a methodology for identifying and classifying events by their intensity of cooperation/ conflict; (2) a GIS data set of countries and international basins, both current and historical; and (3) a spatial data set of biophysical, socioeconomic, and political variables, linked to the GIS. This paper describes the hypotheses, the above tools created to test them, and a methodological framework for utilizing the linked event and GIS data sets, providing three projects as examples: (1) indicators of international basins at risk of political tensions, ( 2) relationships between internal and international hydropolitics in three geographic regions, and (3) hydroclimatological variables and international water relations. CR *UN ENV PROGR OR S, 2002, ATL INT FRESHW AGREE AHN CH, 1994, J JAPANESE SOC PHOTO, V33, P12 ANDRIOLE SJ, 1984, INT INTERACT, V10, P239 ASHTON P, 2000, AMBIO, V31, P236 AZAR EE, 1980, J CONFLICT RESOLUT, V24, P143 BRECHER M, 2000, STUDY CRISIS BRUNNER J, 2000, WATER SCARCITY WATER BUTTS KH, 1997, PARAMETERS SPR, P65 CHATTERJI M, 2002, CONFLICT MANAGEMENT DAVIES JL, 1998, GLOBAL EVENT DATA SY ELHANCE AP, 1999, HYDROPOLITICS 3 WORL ELLIOTT M, 1991, GEOGR MAG, V63, P28 FALKENMARK M, 1989, AMBIO, V18, P112 GIORDANO M, 2002, GEOGR J 4, V168, P293 GIORDANO M, 2002, THESIS OREG STATE U GLEDITSCH KS, 2000, INT STUD QUART, V44, P1 GLEICK PH, 1989, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V15, P309 GLEICK PH, 1993, INT SECURITY, V18, P79 GURR TR, 1985, INT STUD QUART, V29, P51 HOMERDIXON TF, 1991, INT SECURITY, V16, P76 HOMERDIXON TF, 1994, INT SECURITY, V19, P5 KELLY M, 2002, SHARING WATERS AM PR LANPHIER VA, 1975, THEORY PRACTICE EVEN, P161 LAURANCE EJ, 1990, POLICY SCI, V23, P111 LEOPOLD LB, 1964, FLUVIAL PROCESSES GE LIPSCHUTZ RD, 1989, NATIONS CLASH RAW MA MARTY F, 2001, MANAGING INT RIVERS MATHEWS JT, 1989, FOREIGN AFF, V68, P162 MATSUMOTO K, 2002, THESIS OREG STATE U MERRITT RL, 1993, INT EVENT DATA DEV D MYERS N, 1989, FOREIGN POLICY, P23 NEW M, 2000, J CLIMATE, V13, P2217 OHLSSON L, 1999, ENV SCARCITY CONFLIC REMANS W, 1995, HUMANTARES VOLKERREI, V8, P6 SALMAN SMA, 1998, 414 WORLD BANK SAMSON P, 1997, INT FRESHWATER CONFL SCHRODT PA, 1993, FOREIGN POLICY ANAL, P145 STAHL K, 2003, INT C HYDR MED SEM R TOSET HPW, 2000, POLIT GEOGR, V19, P971 TURTON A, 2000, AFR DIALOGUE MONOGR, V2, P9 ULLMAN RH, 1983, INT SECURITY, V8, P129 WESTING A, 1986, GLOBAL RESOURCES INT WOLF AT, 1998, WATER POLICY, V1, P251 WOLF AT, 1999, WATER INT, V24, P160 WOLF AT, 2002, CONFLICT PREVENTION WOLF AT, 2003, WATER POLICY, V5, P31 WOLF AT, 2003, WATER RESOUR UPDATE, V125, P31 YOFFE S, 2003, J AM WATER RESOUR AS, V39, P1109 YOFFE SB, 2002, THESIS OREG STATE U NR 49 TC 0 J9 WATER RESOUR RES PY 2004 PD MAY 12 VL 40 IS 5 GA 821QC UT ISI:000221476100002 ER PT J AU Huq, S Reid, H TI Mainstreaming adaptation in development SO IDS BULLETIN-INSTITUTE OF DEVELOPMENT STUDIES LA English DT Article AB There are two main policy responses to climate: prevention of climate change (mitigation) through reducing emissions and coping with its effects (adaptation). Mitigation has been given more priority in climate negotiations to date. Because the impacts of climate change are likely to increase in the coming years and there is growing realisation that vulnerable countries and communities will be disproportionately adversely affected, much more attention is now being paid to adaptation than was previously the case, particularly by development organisations. Defining climate change and adaptation carefully is critical to ensuring the success of actions promoting how adaptation can be mainstreamed in development. Narrow definitions of climate change, which ignore climate variability and donor focus on looking at the "global environmental benefits" of adaptation will mean that the adaptation needs of the most vulnerable will not be met. CR MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 *UNDP, 2003, AD POL FRAM *UNFCC, 2001, FCCCCP200113, P1 ADGER WN, 2005, UNPUB FAIRNESS ADAPT HUQ S, 2002, CLIM POLICY, V2, P243 HUQ S, 2003, MAINSTREAMING ADAPTA HUQ S, 2003, SUSTAINABLE DEV OPIN REID H, 2004, ADAPTATION DAY COP 9 SPERLING F, 2003, POVERTY CLIMATE CHAN NR 9 TC 0 J9 IDS BULL-INST DEVELOP STUD BP 15 EP + PY 2004 PD JUL VL 35 IS 3 GA 844HK UT ISI:000223148700003 ER PT J AU Lautze, J Reeves, M Vega, R Kirshen, PH TI Water allocation, climate change, and sustainable peace - The Israeli proposal SO WATER INTERNATIONAL LA English DT Article C1 Tufts Univ, Medford, MA 02155 USA. RP Lautze, J, Tufts Univ, Medford, MA 02155 USA. AB Israeli-Palestinian joint water management strategies fail to account for increased water demand caused by increasing populations and potential decreases in water availability due to climate change. This study examines the impacts of population growth and climate change on the water supplies of Israelis and Palestinians under "business-as-usual" conditions as well as under the Israeli-proposed water resources division discussed in meetings parallel to those at Camp David in 2000. The analysis establishes renewable water resources by source in Israel/Palestine and presents the current sectoral trends in water consumption. From this baseline, eight scenarios are developed that describe conditions in 2000 and 2025. Several indicators are used to measure the positive and negative effects of these conditions. The indicators show that population growth and climate change will negate many of the benefits of the water resources division proposed in 2000. Furthermore, the indicators reveal extreme water resources stress among Palestinians as well as potential environmental degradation as climate change depletes natural water supplies. CR *BLAUST I DES RES, 2000, ISR NAT REP UNFCCC I *CIA, 2002, WORLD FACTB MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 *ISR MIN ENV, 1999, WAST TREATM INF SHEE *ISR MIN NAT INFR, 2002, ISR WAT EC *UN NAT, 2002, WORLD POP PROSP *USAID, 2003, WAT RES DEV MOR ACC *WORLD BANK, 2000, URB WAT SAN MIDDL E *WORLD BANK, 2002, LONG TERM POL OPT PA ALPHER Y, 2002, BITTER LEMONS 0708 ALPHER Y, 2002, BITTER LEMONS 0805 ALSAED R, 2000, P TECHN EXP CONS APP AMERY HA, 2000, WATER MIDDLE E GEOGR BERLAND A, 2000, WATER COMPONENT PEAC BOUZEID E, 2002, J WATER RESOURCE SEP, P343 BROOKS DB, 2000, WATER BALANCES E MED FRIEDMAN TL, 2003, NY TIMES 0115, P21 HAMMOND A, 1998, WHICH WORLD SCENARIO KARTIN A, 2000, POLIT GEOGR, V19, P97 KHATIB G, 2002, BITTER LEMON 0527 LONERGAN S, 1994, WATERSHED ROLE FRESH NASHASHIBI M, 1995, WATER SCI TECHNOL, V32, P65 RIEDEL B, 2002, BITTER LEMONS 0715 ROUYER A, 2000, TURNING WATER POLITI SHAMIR U, 2003, WATER AGREEMENTS ISR SHEHADEH R, 2002, BITTER LEMONS 0805 SHIKLOMANOV I, 1999, WORLD WATER RESOURCE SUSSER A, 2002, BITTER LEMONS 0708 VOROSMARTY, 2000, SCIENCE, V289, P14 WEINTHAL E, 2002, WATER INT, V27, P460 WOLF AT, 1995, HYDROPOLITICS JORDAN NR 31 TC 0 J9 WATER INT BP 197 EP 209 PY 2005 PD JUN VL 30 IS 2 GA 002NT UT ISI:000234618900008 ER PT J AU Krol, MS Bronstert, A TI Regional integrated modelling of climate change impacts on natural resources and resource usage in semi-arid Northeast Brazil SO ENVIRONMENTAL MODELLING & SOFTWARE LA English DT Article C1 Univ Twente, Dept Water Engn & Management, NL-7500 AE Enschede, Netherlands. Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res, D-14412 Potsdam, Germany. Univ Potsdam, Dept Hydrol & Climatol, D-14415 Potsdam, Germany. RP Krol, MS, Univ Twente, Dept Water Engn & Management, POB 217, NL-7500 AE Enschede, Netherlands. AB Semi-arid regions are characterised by a high vulnerability of natural resources to climate change, pronounced climatic variability and often by water scarcity and related social stress. The analysis of the dynamics of natural conditions and the assessment of possible strategies to cope with drought-related problems require an integration of diverse knowledge including climatology, hydrology, and socio-economics. The integrated model introduced here dynamically describes the relationships between climate forcing, water availability, agriculture and selected societal processes. The model has been designed to simulate the complex human-environment system in semi-arid Northeast Brazil quantitatively and is applied to study the sensitivity of regional natural resources and socio-economy to climate change. The validity of the model is considered. Climate change is concluded to have an enormous potential impact on the region. River flow, water storage and irrigated production are specifically affected, assuming a continuous regional development and unfavourable but plausible changes in climate. Under plausible favourable changes in climate, these variables remain stressed. The impact of the integrated model and its applications on present policy making and possible future roles are briefly discussed. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *ANA NAT WAT AG BR, 2002, EV ORG IMPL WAT BAS *ANA NAT WAT AG BR, 2002, EV WAT RES MAN BRAZ *FAO, 1979, 33 FAO *WORLD WAT FOR 3, 2003, MIN C OCC THIRD WORL ANDERSEN J, 2001, J HYDROL, V247, P200 BATHURST JC, 2003, PHYS CHEM EARTH, V28, P579 BECKER A, 2001, NOVA ACTA LEOP, V84, P191 BRONSTERT A, 2000, PHYS CHEM EARTH PT B, V25, P227 BRONSTERT A, 2004, COUPLED MODELS HYDRO BROOKE A, 1998, GAMS USERS GUIDE COHEN SJ, 1997, MACKENZIE BASIN IMPA DEKOK JL, 2003, PHYS CHEM EARTH, V28, P571 DOLL P, 2002, INTEGR ASSESS, V3, P308 DOLL P, 2002, WATER INT, V27, P310 DOLL P, 2003, J HYDROL, V270, P105 ENGELEN G, 2003, INTEGRATED ASSESSMEN, V4, P97 FUHR D, 2003, GLOBAL CHANGE REGION, P349 GAISER T, 2003, GLOBAL CHANGE REGION GAISER T, 2003, GLOBAL CHANGE REGION, P267 GUNTNER A, 2002, 77 PIK POTSD I CLIM GUNTNER A, 2004, HYDROLOG SCI J, V49, P901 GUNTNER A, 2004, J HYDROL, V297, P136 HENNICKER R, 2003, 1 WORLD C INF TECHN HOYNCK S, 2003, GLOBAL CHANGE REGION, P375 JAEGER A, 2003, THESIS U POTSDAM JOHNS TC, 1997, CLIM DYNAM, V13, P103 KROL MS, 2001, PHYS CHEM EARTH PT B, V26, P529 KROL MS, 2003, GLOBAL CHANGE REGION, P43 KROL MS, 2004, ADV GLOBAL CHANGE RE, V17 LEHNER B, 2001, KASSEL WORLD WATER S, V5 LOUCKS DP, 2000, WATER INT, V25, P3 MAGALHAES AR, 1988, IMPACT CLIMATIC VARI, V2, P273 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 ROECKNER E, 1996, 218 MPI MET TURNER BL, 2003, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V100, P8074 TURNER BL, 2003, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V100, P8080 VANDEGIESEN N, 2001, ADV GLOBAL CHANGE RE, V10, P151 VOROSMARTY CJ, 2000, SCIENCE, V289, P284 WERNER PC, 1997, CLIMATE RES, V8, P171 NR 39 TC 1 J9 ENVIRON MODELL SOFTW BP 259 EP 268 PY 2007 PD FEB VL 22 IS 2 GA 112UH UT ISI:000242552300014 ER PT J AU Hay, SI Rogers, DJ Randolph, SE Stern, DI Cox, J Shanks, GD Snow, RW TI Hot topic or hot air? Climate change and malaria resurgence in East African highlands SO TRENDS IN PARASITOLOGY LA English DT Article C1 Univ Oxford, Dept Zool, Oxford OX1 3PS, England. Rensselaer Polytech Inst, Dept Econ, Troy, NY 12180 USA. Univ London London Sch Hyg & Trop Med, Dept Infect & Trop Dis, London WC1E 7HT, England. Armed Forces Res Inst Med Sci, USA, Med Component, Bangkok 10400, Thailand. Kenya Govt Med Res Ctr, Wellcome Trust Collaborat Programme, Nairobi 43640, Kenya. RP Hay, SI, Univ Oxford, Dept Zool, S Parks Rd, Oxford OX1 3PS, England. AB Climate has a significant impact on malaria incidence and we have predicted that forecast climate changes might cause some modifications to the present global distribution of malaria close to its present boundaries. However, it is quite another matter to attribute recent resurgences of malaria in the highlands of East Africa to climate change. Analyses of malaria time-series at such sites have shown that malaria incidence has increased in the absence of co-varying changes in climate. We find the widespread increase in resistance of the malaria parasite to drugs and the decrease in vector control activities to be more likely driving forces behind the malaria resurgence. CR 1973, CHEMOTHERAPY MALARIA *INT BANK REC DEV, 2001, WORLD BANK AFR DAT C, P1 *NAT RES COUNC, 2001, WEATH CLIM EC INF DI, P59 *UN POP DIV, 2000, WORLD POP PROSP 1999, P36 BODKER R, 2000, GLOBAL CHANGE HUMAN, V1, P134 BONORA S, 2001, TRENDS PARASITOL, V17, P572 BREMAN JG, 2001, AM J TROP MED HYG, V64, P1 BUGILIMFURA L, 1988, REV MED RWANDAISE, V20, P93 DIPERRI G, 1998, ACTA TROP, V70, P25 EPSTEIN PR, 1998, B AM METEOROL SOC, V79, P409 ETCHEGORRY MG, 2001, LANCET, V357, P1046 FOGH S, 1979, T R SOC TROP MED HYG, V73, P228 GARNHAM PCC, 1948, J NATL MALAR SOC, V7, P275 HAY SI, 1998, PARASITOL TODAY, V14, P306 HAY SI, 2000, ADV PARASIT, V47, P1 HAY SI, 2000, ADV PARASIT, V47, P173 HAY SI, 2000, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V97, P9335 HAY SI, 2000, T ROY SOC TROP MED H, V94, P113 HAY SI, 2002, EMERG INFECT DIS, V8, P543 HAY SI, 2002, NATURE, V415, P905 HOUGHTON JT, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 KILIAN AHD, 1999, T ROY SOC TROP MED H, V93, P22 KOVATS RS, 2001, PHILOS T ROY SOC B, V356, P1057 LINDBLADE KA, 1999, T ROY SOC TROP MED H, V93, P480 LINDSAY SW, 1998, B WORLD HEALTH ORGAN, V76, P33 LINES J, 1994, HEALTH POLICY PLANN, V9, P113 LOEVINSOHN ME, 1994, LANCET, V343, P714 MARIMBU J, 1993, B SOC PATHOL EXOT, V86, P399 MARTENS P, 1999, AM SCI, V87, P534 MARTENS P, 1999, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHA S, V9, S89 MARTIN PH, 1995, AMBIO, V24, P200 MATOLA YG, 1987, J TROP MED HYG, V90, P127 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 MCMICHAEL AJ, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE HUMAN MCMICHAEL AJ, 2001, HUMAN FRONTIERS ENV, P283 MOUCHET J, 1997, B SOC PATHOL EXOT, V90, P162 MOUCHET J, 1998, B SOC PATHOL EXOT, V91, P64 MOUCHET J, 1998, J AM MOSQUITO CONTR, V14, P121 PATZ JA, 1996, JAMA-J AM MED ASSOC, V275, P217 PATZ JA, 1999, CURR OPIN MICROBIOL, V2, P445 PATZ JA, 2001, TRENDS IMMUNOL, V22, P171 REITER P, 2001, ENVIRON HEALTH PE S1, V109, P141 ROGERS DJ, 1993, LANCET, V342, P1282 ROGERS DJ, 2000, SCIENCE, V289, P1763 SHANKS GD, 2000, T ROY SOC TROP MED H, V94, P253 SHRETTA R, 2000, TROP MED INT HEALTH, V5, P755 SNOW RW, 2001, TRENDS PARASITOL, V17, P593 TRAPE JF, 2001, AM J TROP MED HYG, V64, P12 TRAPE JF, 2002, TRENDS PARASITOL, V18, P224 TUCKER CJ, 1985, SCIENCE, V227, P369 TULU AN, 1996, T ROY SOC TROP MED H, V90, P556 WALTHER GR, 2002, NATURE, V416, P389 WATSON RT, 2001, GLOBAL CHANGE HUM HL, V2, P64 NR 53 TC 15 J9 TRENDS PARASITOL BP 530 EP 534 PY 2002 PD DEC VL 18 IS 12 GA 618RV UT ISI:000179431800007 ER PT J AU Myers, N Kent, J TI New consumers: The influence of affluence on the environment SO PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA LA English DT Article C1 Univ Oxford Green Coll, Oxford OX3 8NT, England. RP Myers, N, Univ Oxford Green Coll, Oxford OX3 8NT, England. AB Growing consumption can cause major environmental damage. This is becoming specially significant through the emergence of over 1 billion new consumers, people in 17 developing and three transition countries with an aggregate spending capacity, in purchasing power parity terms, to match that of the U.S. Two of their consumption activities have sizeable environmental impacts. First is a diet based strongly on meat, which, because it is increasingly raised in part on grain, puts pressure on limited irrigation water and international grain supplies. Second, these new consumers possess over one-fifth of the world's cars, a proportion that is rising rapidly. Global CO2 emissions from motor vehicles, of which cars make up 74%, increased during 1990-1997 by 26% and at a rate four times greater than the growth of CO2 emissions overall. It is in the self-interest of new consumer countries, and of the global community, to restrict the environmental impacts of consumption; this restriction is achievable through a number of policy initiatives. CR *CONS INT, 1998, DISCR MIDDL CLASS PR *FAO, 2002, FAOSTAT FOOD BAL SHE *INT EN AG, 2000, INT EN OUTL 2000 *INT MON FUND, 2002, WORLD EC OUTL APR 20 *NAT RES DEF COUNC, 2001, 2 AN CONF GREEN HOUS *US DEP EN EN INF, 2002, INT EN DAT APR 2002 *WORLD BANK, 1994, WORLD DEV REP 1994 *WORLD BANK, 1999, WORLD DEV REP 1999 *WORLD BANK, 2001, CHIN AIR LAND WAT EN *WORLD BANK, 2002, WORLD DEV IND ONL MA *WORLD RES I, 1999, CRIT CONS TRENDS IMP AGARWAL A, 1997, EC GLOBALISATION ITS ALAGH YK, 2001, INDIAS SUSTAINABLE D ARROW K, 2003, IN PRESS J EC PERSPE ATINC PM, 1997, SHARING RISING INCOM BOSE R, 2001, TRANSPORTATION DEV C BROWN LR, 2001, ECOECONOMY BUILDING COBB C, 1999, WHY BIGGER ISNT BETT DAILY GC, 1996, ECOL APPL, V6, P991 DALY HE, 2000, ECOLOGICAL EC ECOLOG DASGUPTA P, 2000, ENVIRON DEV ECON, V5, P69 DESIMONE LD, 2000, ECOEFFICIENCY BUSINE DUPONT P, 1997, WORLD TRANSPORT POLI, V3, P25 EKINS P, 2000, J ENV POLICY PLANNIN, V2, P93 FRANK RH, 1999, LUXURY FEVER WHY MON GLEICK P, 2000, WORLDS WATER 2000 20 HAWKEN P, 1999, NATURAL CAPITALISM HOLDREN JP, 1974, AM SCIENT, V62, P282 HOLDREN JP, 2000, ENVIRONMENT, V42, P4 KASSER T, 2002, HIGH PRICE MAT KATES RW, 2001, SCIENCE, V292, P641 KLEIN LR, 2000, EC REFORMS GROWTH PR MCDONOUGH W, 2002, CRADLE CRADLE REMAKI MOTVALLI J, 2002, FORWARD DRIVE RACE B MYERS N, 2001, PERVERSE SUBSIDIES T NEWMAN P, 1999, AUTOMOBILE DEPENDENC PALANIVEL T, 2001, SUSTAINABLE DEV CHIN PARIKH J, 2001, ACCOUNTING ENV DEGRA PAULI G, 1998, SIZING ROAD ZERO EMI PEARCE D, 2001, BLUEPRINT SUSTAINABL PIMENTEL D, 2000, ECOLOGICAL INTEGRITY POSTEL S, 1999, PILLAR SAND CAN IRRI PRINCEN T, 2002, CONFRONTING CONSUMPT QINGCHENG H, 2001, N CHINA PLAIN ITS AQ RABINOVITCH J, 1996, LAND USE POLICY, V13, P51 RILEY K, 2002, POPUL ENVIRON, V23, P479 ROBINS N, 1998, DEVELOPMENT CAMBRIDG, V41, P28 ROODMAN D, 1998, NATURAL WEALTH NATIO ROSEGRANT MW, 2001, 2020 GLOBAL FOOD OUT RUSSEL T, 2001, ECOEFFICIENCY MANAGE SATTERTHWAITE D, 1999, SUSTAINABLE CITIES SCHIPPER L, 1999, RAPID MOTORIZATION L SCHIPPER L, 2001, DESIGNING EFFECTIVE SCHMIDTBLEEK F, 2000, FACTOR 10 MANIFESTO SCHOR JB, 1998, OVERSPENT AM UPSCALI SECKLER D, 1998, WATER SCARCITY 21 CE SHEEHAN M, 2001, CITY LIMITS PUTTING SINTON JE, 2000, ENERG POLICY, V28, P671 SMIL V, 1998, EC COSTS CHINAS ENV SMIL V, 2000, FEEDING WORLD CHALLE STERN P, 1997, ENV SIGNIFICANT CONS STREETS DG, 2001, SCIENCE, V294, P1835 TAKAHIRO A, 2000, GREEN GDP ESTIMATES TILMAN D, 2001, SCIENCE, V292, P281 WALLART N, 1999, POLITICAL EC ENV TAX WILLOUGHBY C, 2000, MANAGING MOTORIZATIO NR 66 TC 0 J9 PROC NAT ACAD SCI USA BP 4963 EP 4968 PY 2003 PD APR 15 VL 100 IS 8 GA 668RC UT ISI:000182306100110 ER PT J AU Jackson, RB Carpenter, SR Dahm, CN McKnight, DM Naiman, RJ Postel, SL Running, SW TI Water in a changing world SO ECOLOGICAL APPLICATIONS LA English DT Review C1 Duke Univ, Dept Biol, Durham, NC 27708 USA. Duke Univ, Nicholas Sch Environm, Durham, NC 27708 USA. Univ Wisconsin, Ctr Limnol, Madison, WI 53706 USA. Univ New Mexico, Dept Biol, Albuquerque, NM 87131 USA. Univ Colorado, Inst Arctic & Alpine Res, Boulder, CO 80309 USA. Univ Washington, Sch Aquat & Fishery Sci, Seattle, WA 98195 USA. Ctr Global Water Policy, Amherst, MA 01002 USA. Univ Montana, Sch Forestry, Missoula, MT 59812 USA. RP Jackson, RB, Duke Univ, Dept Biol, Phytotron Bldg, Durham, NC 27708 USA. AB Renewable fresh water comprises a tiny fraction of the global water pool but is the foundation for life in terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems. The benefits to humans of renewable fresh water include water for drinking, irrigation, and industrial uses, for production of fish and waterfowl, and for such instream uses as recreation, transportation, and waste disposal. In the coming century, climate change and a growing imbalance among freshwater supply, consumption, and population will alter the water cycle dramatically. Many regions of the world are already limited by the amount and quality of available water. In the next 30 yr alone, accessible runoff is unlikely to increase more than 10%, but the earth's population is projected to rise by approximately one-third. Unless the efficiency of water use rises, this imbalance will reduce freshwater ecosystem services, increase the number of aquatic species facing extinction, and further fragment wetlands, rivers, deltas, and estuaries. Based on the scientific evidence currently available, we conclude that: (1) over half of accessible freshwater runoff globally is already appropriated for human use; (2) more than 1 x 10(9) people currently lack access to clean drinking water and almost 3 x 10(9) people lack basic sanitation services; (3) because the human population will grow faster than increases in the amount of accessible fresh water, per capita availability of fresh water will decrease in the coming century; (4) climate change will cause a general intensification of the earth's hydrological cycle in the next 100 yr, with generally increased precipitation, evapotranspiration, and occurrence of storms, and significant changes in biogeochemical processes influencing water quality; (5) at least 90% of total water discharge from U.S. rivers is strongly affected by channel fragmentation from dams, reservoirs, interbasin diversions, and irrigation; and (6) globally, 20% of freshwater fish species are threatened or extinct, and freshwater species make up 47% of all animals federally endangered in the United States. The growing demands on freshwater resources create an urgent need to link research with improved water management. Better monitoring, assessment, and forecasting of water resources will help to allocate water more efficiently among competing needs, Currently in the United States, at least six federal departments and 20 agencies share responsibilities for various aspects of the hydrologic cycle. Coordination by a single panel with members drawn from each department, or by a central agency, would acknowledge the diverse pressures on freshwater systems and could lead to the development of a well-coordinated national plan. 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1989, J HYDROL, V107, P113 THORNTON PE, 1997, J HYDROL, V190, P214 TOTH LA, 1998, BIOSCIENCE, V48, P757 TSONIS AA, 1996, NATURE, V382, P700 TURNER RE, 1994, NATURE, V368, P619 VILEISIS A, 1997, DISCOVERING UNKNOWN VOROSMARTY CJ, 2000, BIOSCIENCE, V50, P753 VOROSMARTY CJ, 2000, SCIENCE, V289, P284 WALKER J, 1993, J APPL ECOL, V30, P265 WALTERS CJ, 1999, ECOSYSTEMS, V2, P411 WALTERS CJ, 1986, ADAPTIVE MANAGEMENT WARING R, 1998, FOREST ECOSYSTEMS AN WEBSTER KE, 1996, LIMNOL OCEANOGR, V41, P977 WHITE WB, 1995, AM SCI, V83, P450 WIGMOSTA MS, 1994, WATER RESOUR RES, V30, P1665 WILCOVE DS, 1993, CONSERV BIOL, V7, P87 WILSON MA, 1999, ECOL APPL, V9, P772 WINTER TC, 1998, 1139 US GEOL SURV WOLF AT, 1998, WATER POLICY, V1, P251 NR 165 TC 23 J9 ECOL APPL BP 1027 EP 1045 PY 2001 PD AUG VL 11 IS 4 GA 458RW UT ISI:000170209200008 ER PT J AU DAVIS, I TI ADAPTING TO HAZARDS - SOME OBSERVATIONS ON THE RELATIONSHIP OF THE EXTREME CLIMATIC FORCES OF FLOODING AND HIGH WINDS TO THE MAINTENANCE AND PLANNING OF SETTLEMENTS FOR LOW-INCOME FAMILIES WITHIN DEVELOPING-COUNTRIES SO ENERGY AND BUILDINGS LA English DT Article RP DAVIS, I, OXFORD POLYTECH,DEPT ARCHITECTURE,DISASTERS & SETTLEMENT UNIT,OXFORD OX3 0BP,ENGLAND. CR ABRAMS C, 1964, MANS STRUGGLE SHELTE BURTON I, 1978, ENV HAZARD, V1, P1 DSOUZA F, J DISASTERS TURNER JFC, 1983, ARCHITECTURAL ED, V2, P58 NR 4 TC 0 J9 ENERG BLDG BP 195 EP 203 PY 1984 VL 7 IS 3 GA ABN45 UT ISI:A1984ABN4500002 ER PT J AU Washington, R Downing, TE TI Seasonal forecasting of African rainfall: Prediction, responses and household food security SO GEOGRAPHICAL JOURNAL LA English DT Article C1 Univ Oxford, Sch Geog, Oxford OX1 3TB, England. Univ Oxford, Environm Change Unit, Oxford OX1 3TB, England. RP Washington, R, Univ Oxford, Sch Geog, Mansfield Rd, Oxford OX1 3TB, England. AB The main approaches, assumptions and methods used in seasonal forecasting are described in this paper. Examples of methods ranging from simple correlation to multi-annual, multivariate models of seasonal rainfall prediction are given for several regions in Africa along with an overview of operation forecasts for the Sahel, East Africa and Southern Africa. Recent developments in climate prediction suggest that seasonal rainfall forecasts for Africa are increasingly reliable and should be of widespread interest to resource managers and consumers. Climate forecasts may indeed revolutionize resource management in Africa. Yet, their utility depends on the linkages between geophysical, economic and social aspects of resource use. Progress in rainfall forecasting is placed in the context of the use of seasonal predictions in Africa, with a particular emphasis on ameliorating vulnerable livelihoods. Targeting users, reaching vulnerable livelihoods, messages that are distorted over space and time, the lag between forecasts and dissemination, maladaptive responses and false alarms are difficulties that can be expected in many developing countries. 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Agriculture will, however, continue to be the most important sector to adapt to climate change: nearly 70 per cent of China's population depends directly on agriculture. Like other developing countries, China will need to develop adaptation strategies imposed by climate change against a background of existing poverty, resource and infrastructure constraints. Northeast China was selected for this case study because it illustrates how anticipatory adaptation can lead to positive impacts from climate change. This region is already one of the most important bases of commercial food grains (wheat, rice and maize) and economic crops (soybean, sugar beets). Recent climate warming has on the one hand created favourable conditions for agricultural development in Northeast China through a prolonged growth period, northward movement of accumulated temperature belts and decreases of cold stress. On the other hand, environment and natural resource problems (e.g. water shortage, urbanisation) have placed enormous regional stress on agricultural production and ecosystems, illustrating the complex nature of the impacts of climate change. This case study demonstrates that the positive opportunities provided by climate change will not happen automatically but will require communities to be supported through resources such as extension services, new crop varieties and institutional frameworks that allow experimentation and reward entrepreneurship. Over the longer term and at higher temperatures, the negative impacts of climate change, such as increased water stress and extreme events, may mean a decrease or even a reversal of the potential benefits of temperature increases in the short term. CR *AMI, 2004, CHIN UK CLIM CHANG P *CHIN IN NAT COMM, 2004, PEOPL REP CHIN SUBM MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 *NAT BUR STAT CHIN, 2003, CHIN STAT YB *RTCCCS, 1999, CHIN CLIM CHANG COUN *STAT BUR HEIL PRO, 1992, HEIL STAT YB *STAT BUR JIL PROV, 1992, JIL STAT YB *STAT BUR LIAON PR, 1993, LIAON STAT YB BI W, 2004, ADJUSTING IND STRUCT CI LJ, 1994, J NATURAL RESOURCES, V9, P289 DING YH, 1993, CHALLENGE ENV CLIMAT DING YH, 1998, P 7 INT C PERM YELL, V57, P221 DU BL, 2000, ACTA OCEANOLOGICA S, V22, P1 FANG XQ, 2000, J NATURAL RESOURCES, V15, P213 HAO ZX, 2001, PROGR GEOGRAPHY, V20, P254 HOU LB, 1996, P 2 CHIN YOUNG SCI W, P261 HOU LB, 1999, J SHENYANG AGR U, V30, P567 JIN ZQ, 1998, CROP SCI, V28, P51 LIU H, 2004, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V65, P125 PENG SL, 2000, EARTH SCI FRONTIERS, V9, P217 SHI YF, 2000, SCIENCE REPORT, V45, P434 SUN LF, 1997, HEILONGJIANG AGR SCI, V4, P17 WANG S, 2002, ACTA PHYS-CHIM SIN, V18, P264 WANG XF, 1994, THEORY PRACTICE BIOD XIA DX, 1993, ACTA GEOGRAPHICA SIN, V48, P468 XU DY, 1997, IMPACT CLIMATE CHANG XU YL, 2003, CLIMATIC ENV RES, V18, P209 YE DZ, 1992, SIMULATION RES GLOBA ZHAI PM, 2003, INT S CLIM CHANG ISC ZHANG HX, 2000, AGR METEOROLOGY, V21, P9 ZHANG HX, 2001, CHINESE J AGRO METEO, V21, P10 ZHANG HX, 2003, UNPUB ADAPTATION FRA ZHANG Y, 1997, PUB LAW E SE ASIA, V2, P35 ZHAO MC, 1995, J NATURAL RESOURCES, V10, P148 ZHAO SQ, 1994, GEOGRAPHY CHINA ENV ZHOU GS, 1996, ACTA PHYTOECOLOGICA, V20, P11 ZHOU WH, 1998, TROPICAL GEOGRAPHY, V18, P266 ZOU LK, 2001, CHINESE J AGRO METEO, V22, P53 NR 38 TC 0 J9 IDS BULL-INST DEVELOP STUD BP 15 EP + PY 2005 PD OCT VL 36 IS 4 GA 989QD UT ISI:000233687900003 ER PT J AU Furgal, C Seguin, J TI Climate change, health, and vulnerability in Canadian northern Aboriginal communities SO ENVIRONMENTAL HEALTH PERSPECTIVES LA English DT Article C1 Trent Univ, Gzowski Coll, Dept Indigenous Studies, Peterborough, ON K9J 7B8, Canada. Univ Laval, Nasivvik Ctr Inuit Hlth & Changing Environm, Publ Hlth Res Unit,Dept Polit Sci, CHU Quebec,CHU Laval, Quebec City, PQ, Canada. Hlth Canada, Climat Change & Hlth Off, Ottawa, ON K1A 0L2, Canada. RP Furgal, C, Trent Univ, Gzowski Coll, Dept Indigenous Studies, 1600 E Bank Dr, Peterborough, ON K9J 7B8, Canada. AB BACKGROUND: Canada has recognized that Aboriginal and northern communities in the country face unique challenges and that there is a need to expand the assessment of vulnerabilities to climate change to include these communities. Evidence suggests that Canada's North is already experiencing significant changes in its climate-changes that are having negative impacts on the lives of Aboriginal people living in these regions. Research on climate change and health impacts in northern Canada thus far has brought together Aboriginal community members, government representatives, and researchers and is charting new territory. METHODS AND RESULTs: In this article we review experiences from two projects that have taken a community-based dialogue approach to identifying and assessing the effects of and vulnerability to climate change and the impact on the health in two Inuit regions of the Canadian Arctic. CONCLUSIONs: The results of the two case projects that we present argue for a multi-stakeholder, participatory framework for assessment that supports the necessary analysis, understanding, and enhancement of capabilities of local areas to respond and adapt to the health impacts at the local level. 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CR 1975, MARINE FISHERIES REV, V37, P43 *COMM DEV STAND FI, 1980, REP *DEP FISH OC, 1980, ANN REP NEWF REG ACHESON JM, 1976, AM ANTHR, V78, P331 ANDERSEN R, 1972, N ATLANTIC FISHERMEN BENNETT JW, 1969, NO PLAINSMEN ADAPTIV BERNARD HR, 1974, HUM ORGAN, V33, P261 BROX O, 1972, NEWFOUNDLAND FISHERM BURTON I, 1978, ENV HAZARD, V1, P1 EPPLE GM, 1977, THOSE WHO LIVE SEA HOLLING CS, 1978, ADAPTIVE ENV ASSESSM LEVELTON CR, 1979, ATLANTIC COMMERCIAL LIEN J, 1980, WHALE RES GROUP PROG MORREN G, 1980, HUM ECOL, V8, P33 SEWELL WRD, 1971, PERCEPTIONS ATTITUDE VAYDA AP, 1975, ANNU REV ANTHROPOL, V4, P293 NR 16 TC 1 J9 ENVIRON BEHAV BP 458 EP 486 PY 1983 VL 15 IS 4 GA RG733 UT ISI:A1983RG73300004 ER PT J AU Rudel, TK Coomes, OT Moran, E Achard, F Angelsen, A Xu, JC Lambin, EF TI Forest transitions: towards a global understanding of land use change SO GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS LA English DT Article C1 Rutgers State Univ, Dept Human Oncol, New Brunswick, NJ 08901 USA. Rutgers State Univ, Dept Sociol, New Brunswick, NJ 08901 USA. McGill Univ, Dept Geog, Montreal, PQ H3A 2K6, Canada. Indiana Univ, Dept Anthropol, Bloomington, IN 47405 USA. Joint Res Ctr, GloVegGlobal Vegetarian Monitoring Unit, I-21020 Ispra, Italy. Agr Univ Norway, Dept Econ & Social Sci, N-1432 As, Norway. Kunming Inst Bot, Dept Plant Geog & Ethnobot, Kunming 650204, Yunnan, Peoples R China. Univ Catholique Louvain, Dept Geog, B-1348 Louvain, Belgium. RP Rudel, TK, Rutgers State Univ, Dept Human Oncol, 55 Dudley Rd, New Brunswick, NJ 08901 USA. AB Places experience forest transitions when declines in forest cover cease and recoveries in forest cover begin. Forest transitions have occurred in two, sometimes overlapping circumstances. In some places economic development has created enough non-farm jobs to pull farmers off of the land, thereby inducing the spontaneous regeneration of forests in old fields. In other places a scarcity of forest products has prompted governments and landowners to plant trees in some fields. The transitions do little to conserve biodiversity, but they do sequester carbon and conserve soil, so governments should place a high priority on promoting them. © 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 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RP Parnwell, MJG, Univ Hull, Ctr S E Asian Studies, Hull HU6 7RX, N Humberside, England. AB This paper seeks to articulate recent debates on globalisation and critical security with the process and local impact of international tourism development in Thailand and Myanmar (Burma). It argues that, although tourism is an important manifestation of the globalisation phenomenon, its impact on host societies is very much dependent upon the influence of local institutions and actors. Hence, the enquiry will focus principally upon the "global-local interface". The impact of tourism is viewed within the "new security" framework which involves broadening the notion of security beyond its traditional focus on military issues and inter-state relations into such realms as economic, environmental and societal security with a strong emphasis on sub-national situations. Using empirical examples of forced labour and human rights in Myanmar, the HIV/AIDS crisis and societal insecurity in Thailand and Myanmar, and the environmental impact of golf tourism in Thailand and elsewhere, the paper attempts to show how the perceived macro-level benefits of active tourism promotion are Frequently traded off against significant, and occasionally severe, negative local security impacts. How such a situation occurs will be the principal focus of this investigation. CR ECONOMIST GUARDIAN NATION NEW FRONTIERS THAI DEV NEWSLETTER WATERSHED 1996, INDEPENDENT 1119 1997, OBSERVER 0323 *AMN INT, 1997, AMN INT COUNTR REP M *AS WATCH, 1993, MOD FORM SLAV TRAFF *ECTWT, 1991, CAUGHT MOD SLAV TOUR *EIU, 1997, COUNTR REP MYANM *UN, 1983, HUM RIGHTS URB AR ALLEN J, 1995, SHRINKING WORLD GLOB AMIN A, 1997, THEOR CULT SOC, V14, P123 AYOOB M, 1995, 3 WORLD SEC PRED STA BERNER E, 1995, INT J URBAN REGIONAL, V19, P208 BOOTH K, 1991, REV INT STUD, V17, P313 BUZAN B, 1993, IDENTITY MIGRATION N, P41 CALLAHAN MP, 1996, ASIAN SURV, V36, P158 CATER E, 1995, SHRINKING WORLD GLOB, P183 CLEMENTS KP, 1992, B PEACE PROPOSALS, V23, P173 COX KR, 1995, URBAN STUD, V32, P213 DICKEN P, 1994, ECON GEOGR, V70, P101 GRAEGER N, 1996, J PEACE RES, V33, P109 HALL CM, 1992, TOURISM LESS DEV COU, P64 HALL CM, 1994, TOURISM POLITICS POL HALL CM, 1996, SOCIOLOGY TOURISM TH, P265 HARVEY D, 1989, CONDITION POSTMODERN HIRSCH P, 1995, COUNTING COSTS EC GR, P235 HIRST P, 1996, GLOBALIZATION QUESTI HOOGVELT A, 1997, GLOBALISATION POSTCO HUMANA C, 1992, WORLD HUMAN RIGHTS G KELLY PF, 1997, GEOFORUM, V28, P151 LEIFER M, 1995, DICT MODERN POLITICS LIPIETZ A, 1993, T I BRIT GEOGR, V18, P8 MAGNO FA, 1997, SECUR DIALOGUE, V28, P97 MOWFORTH M, 1998, TOURISM SUSTAINABILI NICHOLSON M, 1993, NEW PERSPECTIVES SEC, P104 PARNWELL MJG, 1993, POPULATION MOVEMENTS PARNWELL MJG, 1997, THIRD WORLD PLAN REV, V19, P119 PASHA MK, 1996, ALTERN-SOC TRANSFORM, V21, P283 PASKINS B, 1993, NEW PERSPECTIVES SEC, P17 PEARCE F, 1993, NEW SCI 0925, P30 PECK J, 1994, AREA, V26, P317 PILGER J, 1997, CONVERTACTION Q RIMMER PJ, 1994, INT J URBAN REGIONAL, V18, P234 SIBLEY SS, 1997, LAW SOC REV, V31, P207 SIVARAKSA S, 1994, COMP STUDY 2 MILITAR SORENSEN G, 1996, SECUR DIALOGUE, V27, P371 STEINBERG DI, 1989, CRISIS BURMA STASIS THANHDAM T, 1990, SEX MONEY MORALITY P THOMAS C, 1987, SEARCH SECURITY 3 WO THOMAS C, 1992, ENV INT RELATIONS ULLMAN RH, 1983, INT SECURITY, V8, P129 URRY J, 1990, TOURIST GAZE LEISURE WACKERMANN G, 1997, INT SOC SCI J, V49, P23 WAEVER O, 1993, IDENTITY MIGRATION N, P17 NR 58 TC 2 J9 SING J TROP GEOGR BP 212 EP 231 PY 1998 PD DEC VL 19 IS 2 GA 149EU UT ISI:000077592800006 ER PT J AU Bhattacharya, S Sharma, C Dhiman, RC Mitra, AP TI Climate change and malaria in India SO CURRENT SCIENCE LA English DT Article C1 NATCOM Project Management Cell, New Delhi 110017, India. Natl Phys Lab, New Delhi 110019, India. Mat Res Ctr, Delhi 110012, India. RP Bhattacharya, S, NATCOM Project Management Cell, 1 Navjeevan Vihar, New Delhi 110017, India. AB The focus in this paper is to understand the likely influence of climate change on vector production and malaria transmission in India. A set of transmission windows typical to India have been developed, in terms of different temperature ranges for a particular range of relative humidity, by analysing the present climate trends and corresponding malaria incidences. Using these transmission window criteria, the most endemic malarious regions emerge as the central and eastern Indian regions of the country covering Madhya Pradesh, Jharkhand, Chhatisgarh, Orissa, West Bengal and Assam in the current climate conditions. Applying the same criteria under the future climate change conditions (results of HadRM2 using IS92a scenario) in 2050s, it is projected that malaria is likely to persist in Orissa, West Bengal and southern parts of Assam, bordering north of West Bengal. However, it may shift from the central Indian region to the south western coastal states of Maharashtra, Karnataka and Kerala. Also the northern states, including Himachal Pradesh and Arunachal Pradesh, Nagaland, Manipur and Mizoram in the northeast may become malaria prone. The duration of the transmission windows is likely to widen in northern and western states and shorten in the southern states. The extent of vulnerability due to malaria depends on the prevailing socio-economic conditions. The increase or decrease in vulnerability due to climate change in the 2050s will therefore depend on the developmental path followed by India. Therefore it is important to understand the current adaptation mechanisms and improve the coping capacities of the vulnerable section of the population by helping to enhance their accessibility to health services, improved surveillance and forecasting technologies. CR 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 2004, INDIAS INITIAL NATL, P59 *NMEP, 1986, MAL ITS CONTR IND, V3 AKHTAR R, 1996, LANCET, V348, P1457 BOUMA MJ, 1994, LANCET, V344, P1638 BOUMA MJ, 1995, EPIDEMIOLOGY CONTROL, P45 BOUMA MJ, 1996, TROP MED INT HEALTH, V1, P86 DHIMAN RC, 2003, COMMUNICATION DHIMAN RC, 2004, P WORKSH WAT RES COA KOVATS RS, 2001, PHILOS T ROY SOC B, V356, P1057 MARTENS WJM, 1995, ENVIRON HEALTH PERSP, V103, P458 MARTENS WJM, 1998, HLTH CLIMATE CHANGE PAMPANA E, 1969, TXB MALARIA ERADICAT PATZ JA, 1998, TROP MED INT HEALTH, V3, P818 RUSSELL PF, 1963, PRACTICAL MALARIOLOG SHARMA RS, 1996, EP CONTR MAL IND SHARMA VP, 1996, INDIAN J MED RES, V103, P26 SHARMA VP, 2003, CONTEXTUAL DETERMINA SINGH N, 2002, ANN TROP MED PARASIT, V96, P349 NR 19 TC 0 J9 CURR SCI BP 369 EP 375 PY 2006 PD FEB 10 VL 90 IS 3 GA 014RM UT ISI:000235497600022 ER PT J AU Stigter, TY Ribeiro, L Dill, AMMC TI Evaluation of an intrinsic and a specific vulnerability assessment method in comparison with groundwater salinisation and nitrate contamination levels in two agricultural regions in the south of Portugal SO HYDROGEOLOGY JOURNAL LA English DT Article C1 Univ Algarve, CVRM FCMA, P-8000117 Faro, Portugal. Inst Super Tecn, CVRM, P-1049001 Lisbon, Portugal. RP Stigter, TY, Univ Algarve, CVRM FCMA, Campus Gambelas, P-8000117 Faro, Portugal. AB The applicability of two vulnerability assessment methods in evaluating the impact of agricultural activities on groundwater quality, is tested in two areas in the south of Portugal with modest results. Intensive citri- and horticulture require large amounts of fertiliser and water supplied by irrigation, which induces groundwater salinisation and contamination by nitrates. The degree of contamination varies highly within and between the study areas and is related to hydrogeological factors as well as intensity of agricultural practices. Vulnerability mapping is performed with the intrinsic DRASTIC method and the specific Susceptibility Index (SI), which is an adaptation of DRASTIC. These methods can constitute useful groundwater management tools, for instance when designating new Nitrate Vulnerable Zones as defined in the European Directive 91/676/EEC. However, in the case of DRASTIC, little correspondence exists between the most vulnerable and the most contaminated areas. This is mainly a result of underestimating the dilution capacity and overemphasising the attenuating potential of the unsaturated zone and aquifer, as both chloride and nitrate prove to be very stable contaminants. By including a parameter for land use, SI manages to produce more reliable results, although in many areas the vulnerability is overestimated. CR *COMM TECHN ASS GR, 1993, GROUND WAT VULN ASS ALBINET M, 1970, B BRGM, V4, P13 ALLER L, 1987, EPA600287035 ALMEIDA C, 1987, 4 S HYDR HIDR REC HI, V12, P249 ALMEIDA C, 2000, SISTEMAS AQUIFEOS PE ANDERSEN LJ, 1998, ENVIRON GEOL WAT SCI, V13, P39 APPELO CAJ, 1994, GEOCHEMISTRY GROUNDW BACHMAT Y, 1987, VULNERABILITY SOIL G, P297 BEKESI G, 2002, HYDROGEOL J, V10, P322 BELTRAO J, 1985, REGA LOCALIZADA BONTE M, 1999, THESIS VRIJE U AMSTE CANTER LW, 1997, NITRATES GROUNDWATER DASILVA MJB, 1984, THESIS U LISBOA LISB DASILVA MJB, 1988, THESIS U LISBOA LISB DAVIS SN, 1969, POROSITY PERMEABILIT DEBRUIN J, 1999, THESIS VRIJE U AMSTE DOSSANTOS JQ, 1991, FERTILIZACAO FUNDAME FOSTER SSD, 1987, VULNERABILITY SOIL G, P69 FRANCOIS ARJ, 2001, P INT WORKSH COMP VI, P35 FREEZE RA, 1979, GROUNDWATER GARRETT P, 1989, P FOC C E REG GROUND, P329 GOGU RC, 2000, ENVIRON GEOL, V39, P549 JOHANSSON P, 2002, SERIES GROUNDWATER U, V2, P75 KELLER J, 2000, SPRINKLE TRICKLE IRR KIM YJ, 1999, HYDROGEOL J, V7, P227 KOPP E, 1989, OS SOLOS ALGARVE SUA LOBOFERREIRA JP, 1993, 19493 LNEC GIASDH LOBOFERREIRA JP, 1995, 23795 LNEC GIASDH LOUREIRO NS, 1995, CATENA, P2455 LYNCH SD, 1997, S AFR J SCI, V93, P59 MARGAT J, 1968, 68 SGL OLIVEIRA MM, 1989, P 4 C AG APRH LISB C OLIVEIRA MM, 2003, P AQ VULN RISK INT W RIBEIRO L, 2000, IS NOVO INDICE SUSCE RIBEIRO L, 2003, IHP SERIES GROUNDWAT, V7, P377 ROSEN L, 1994, GROUND WATER, V32, P278 RUPERT MG, 2001, GROUND WATER, V39, P625 STIGTER T, 2002, P 32 IAH 6 ALHSUD C STIGTER TY, 1998, J HYDROL, V208, P262 STIGTER TY, 2001, GEOLOGICAL HYDROGEOC STIGTER TY, 2001, P 3 INT C FUT GROUND, P105 STIGTER TY, 2002, P 6 C AG APRH PORT VANDUIJVENBOODE.W, 1987, P INF 38 TNO COMM HY VANOOIJEN SPJ, 1996, THESIS VRIJE U AMSTE VRBA J, 1994, GUIDEBOOK MAPPING GR, V16 ZAPOROZEC A, 2002, SERIES GROUNDWATER U, V2 NR 46 TC 2 J9 HYDROGEOL J BP 79 EP 99 PY 2006 PD JAN VL 14 IS 1-2 GA 996XQ UT ISI:000234209500008 ER PT J AU Schreider, SY Smith, DI Jakeman, AJ TI Climate change impacts on urban flooding SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 Australian Natl Univ, Integrated Catchment Assessment & Management Ctr, Canberra, ACT 0200, Australia. Australian Natl Univ, Ctr Resource & Environm Studies, Canberra, ACT 0200, Australia. RP Schreider, SY, Australian Natl Univ, Integrated Catchment Assessment & Management Ctr, Canberra, ACT 0200, Australia. AB This paper estimates changes in the potential damage of flood events caused by increases of CO2 concentration in the atmosphere. It is presented in two parts: 1. the modelling of flood frequency and magnitude under global warming and associated rainfall intensities and 2. the use of greenhouse flood data to assess changes in the vulnerability of flood prone urban areas, expressing these in terms of direct losses. Three case studies were selected: the Hawkesbury-Nepean corridor, the Queanbeyan and Upper Parramatta Rivers. All three catchments are located in southeastern Australia, near Sydney and Canberra. These were chosen because each had detailed building data bases available and the localities are situated on rivers that vary in catchment size and characteristics. All fall within a region that will experience similar climate change under the available greenhouse scenarios. The GCMs' slab model scenarios of climate change in 2030 and 2070 will cause only minor changes to urban flood damage but the double CO2 scenarios estimated using the Stochastic Weather Generator technique will lead to significant increases in building damage. For all the case studies, the hydrological modelling indicates that there will be increases in the magnitude and frequency of flood events under the double CO2 conditions although these vary from place to place. However, the overall pattern of change is that for the Upper Parramatta River the 1 in 100-year flood under current conditions becomes the 1 in 44-year event, the 1 in 35-year flood for the Hawkesbury-Nepean and the 1 in 10 for Queanbeyan and Canberra. This indicates the importance of using rainfall-runoff modelling in order to estimate changes in flood frequencies in catchments with different physical characteristics. CR *CIG, 1992, 7 CIG CSIRO DIV ATM *CIG, 1996, 7 CIG CSIRO DIV ATM *DWR, 1989, TOONG CREEK FLOOD ST *IPCC, 1996, CLIM CHANG 1995 SCI *SWB, 1994, WARR FLOOD MIT DAM E BATES BC, 1993, ENG HYDROLOGY, P67 BATES BC, 1994, T ROY SOC SOUTH AUST, V118, P35 BLACK RD, 1975, FLOODPROOFING RURAL CHARLES SP, 1993, I ENG AUST ANT C PUB, V9314, P469 COLMAN RA, 1994, AUSTRAL METEOROL MAG, V43, P101 FOWLER AM, 1995, NAT HAZARDS, V11, P283 HOUGHTON JT, 1990, CLIMATE CHANGE IPCC HOUGHTON JT, 1992, CLIMATE CHANGE 199 S JAKEMAN AJ, 1990, J HYDROL, V117, P275 JAKEMAN AJ, 1993, WATER RESOUR RES, V29, P2637 MCFARLANE NA, 1992, J CLIMATE, V5, P1013 MCGREGOR JL, 1993, 25 CSIRO DIV ATM RES MINNERY JR, 1996, GREENHOUSE COPING CL, P235 NASH JE, 1970, J HYDROL, V10, P282 POST DA, 1996, ECOL MODEL, V86, P177 SCHREIDER SY, 1995, ENVIRON INT, V21, P545 SCHREIDER SY, 1996, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V34, P513 SCHREIDER SY, 1996, HYDROL PROCESS, V10, P863 SMITH DI, 1988, DESKTOP PLANNING ADV, P239 SMITH DI, 1990, APPL GEOGR, V10, P5 SMITH DI, 1991, NATURAL TECHNOLOGICA, P149 SMITH DI, 1994, WATER SA, V20, P231 SMITH DI, 1996, C NAT DIS RED SURF P SMITH DI, 1996, ISSUES FLOODPLAIN MA SMITH DI, 1998, RESOURCE ENV STUDIES, V17 WHEATER HS, 1993, MODELLING CHANGE ENV, P101 WHETTON PH, 1993, CLIMN CHANGE NEWSLET, V5, P7 WIGLEY TML, 1992, NATURE, V357, P293 WILKS DS, 1992, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V22, P67 YE W, 1997, WATER RESOUR RES, V33, P153 NR 35 TC 5 J9 CLIMATIC CHANGE BP 91 EP 115 PY 2000 PD OCT VL 47 IS 1-2 GA 354QH UT ISI:000089340800006 ER PT J AU Wong, KK Zhao, XB TI Living with floods: victims' perceptions in Beijiang, Guangdong, China SO AREA LA English DT Article C1 Hong Kong Baptist Univ, Dept Geog, Kowloon, Hong Kong, Peoples R China. RP Wong, KK, Hong Kong Baptist Univ, Dept Geog, Kowloon, Hong Kong, Peoples R China. AB This study revealed the collective values of the flood victims in the Beijiang area, Guangdong, China, as a result of a hazardous flood in 1994. The victims were sceptical of large flood-prevention engineering structures. They believed that flooding was unavoidable, but by extending support networks, applying hazard-resistant designs, and developing loss-sharing adjustments the disastrous effects of a flood could be mitigated. Seemingly, victims were prepared to live with floods and adopted functional adjustments to lessen flood impact. CR 1998, CHINA DAILY HON 0622, P3 *HWRIN, 1997, FLOOD DROUGHT DIS CH *SSB, 1995, REP DAM CAUS DIS CHI *SSTC, 1993, MAJ NAT DIS STRAT DI ALBALABERTRAND JM, 1993, POLITICAL EC LARGE N BLAIKIE PM, 1994, RISK NATURAL HAZARDS, V1, P1 BURTON I, 1964, NAT RESOUR J, V3, P412 BURTON I, 1978, ENV HAZARD, V1, P1 CUTTER SL, 1994, ENV RISKS HAZARDS, R11 FOSTER H, 1980, DISASTER PLANNING PR FRAZIER K, 1979, VIOLENCE FACE NATURE FREUDENBURG WR, 1988, SCIENCE, V242, P44 HAQUE E, 1994, DISASTERS DEV ENV, P65 HEWITT K, 1983, INTERPRETATIONS CALA KASPERSON RE, 1988, RISK ANAL, V8, P177 KATES RW, 1971, ECON GEOGR, V47, P438 LIANG C, 1997, CHINA DAILY HON 1230, P5 LIANG C, 1998, CHINA DAILY HON 0826, P3 LIVERMAN DM, 1994, ENV RISKS HAZARDS, P326 MILETI DS, 1980, SOCIOL SOC RES, V64, P327 MILETI DS, 1995, ENV PROFESSIONAL, V17, P117 MITCHELL JK, 1989, GEOGR REV, V79, P391 OKEEFE P, 1976, NATURE, V260, P566 OLIVERSMITH A, 1996, ANNU REV ANTHROPOL, V25, P303 SAARINEN TF, 1984, ENV PERCEPTION BEHAV SHI YF, 1992, ANAL STATE NATURAL D SMITH K, 1992, ENV HAZARDS ASSESSIN TOBIN GA, 1997, NATURAL HAZARDS EXPL VARLEY A, 1994, DISASTERS DEV ENVIRO, P1 WHITE GF, 1973, DIRECTIONS GEOGRAPHY, P193 WHITE GF, 1975, ASSESSMENT RES NATUR, V1, P1 NR 31 TC 1 J9 AREA BP 190 EP 201 PY 2001 PD JUN VL 33 IS 2 GA 458BL UT ISI:000170173300010 ER PT J AU Brown, JD Damery, SL TI Managing flood risk in the UK: towards an integration of social and technical perspectives SO TRANSACTIONS OF THE INSTITUTE OF BRITISH GEOGRAPHERS LA English DT Article C1 Univ Cambridge, Dept Geog, Cambridge Coastal Res Unit, Cambridge CB2 3EN, England. RP Brown, JD, Univ Cambridge, Dept Geog, Cambridge Coastal Res Unit, Downing Pl, Cambridge CB2 3EN, England. AB In recent years, an apparent increase in the frequency and severity of floods in the UK has led to growing concerns about societal exposure and vulnerability to flooding, particularly in the context of climate change, floodplain development and changing insurance practices. Despite the important link between Assessments of exposure to flooding (hazard assessments) and issues of societal vulnerability, this link has rarely been explored in detail and has often been reflected in policy terms by a highly technocratic approach to flood risk management. Indeed, more comprehensive studies have usually favoured rigid and deterministic definitions of vulnerability, in keeping with the wider technocratic paradigm pervading management institutions. In an attempt to redress the balance, this paper considers the role of hazard assessment and issues of societal vulnerability as mutually informative debates and advocates a movement away from the technocratic ideals currently favoured in the UK. CR *ABI, 2001, FLOOD COSTS PUSH UP *DETR, 2001, PPG 25 PLANN POL GUI *DOE, 1996, HOUS NEED *ENV AG, 1997, POL PRACT PROT FLOOD *ENV AG, 1999, FLOOD WARN SERV STRA *ENV AG, 2001, LESS LEARN AUT 2000 *SCA, 1998, 6 REP FLOOD COAST DE ARONICA G, IN PRESS HYDROLOGICA BANKOFF G, 2001, DISASTERS, V25, P19 BATES PD, 1999, P ROY SOC LOND A MAT, V455, P3107 BATES PD, 2001, SCOPING STUDY REDUCI BECK U, 1992, RISK SOC NEW MODERNI BEVEN K, 2001, HYDROL EARTH SYST SC, V5, P1 BICKERSTAFF K, 1999, LOCAL ENV, V4, P279 BLAIKIE PM, 1994, RISK NATURAL HAZARDS, V1, P1 BLAKE J, 1999, LOCAL ENV, V4, P259 BYE P, 1998, EASTER FLOODS 1998 R CHOW VT, 1988, APPL HYDROLOGY CLARK J, 1997, SOCIOL RURALIS, V37, P38 CRICHTON D, 2001, TOWN COUNTRY PLANN, V70, P183 DOOGE JCI, 1992, AGENDA SCI ENV DEV 2 EDEN S, 1996, PUBLIC UNDERST SCI, V5, P183 EVANS EP, 2001, SCOPING STUDY REDUCI FORDHAM M, 2000, FLOODS FLOOD CHANG E FORDHAM MH, 1998, DISASTERS, V22, P126 FOSTER HD, 1980, DISASTER PLANNING PR GREEN CH, 1990, HAZARDS COMMUNICATIO HAGGETT C, 1998, J CHART INST WATER E, V12, P425 HAJER M, 1995, POLITICS ENV DISCOUR HANDMER J, 1999, APPL GEOGR, V19, P179 HANDMER JW, 1987, FLOOD HAZARD MANAGEM HANDMER JW, 1989, MACEDON DIGEST, V4, P4 HANDMER JW, 1990, HAZARDS COMMUNICATIO HANDMER JW, 1997, FLOOD WARNING ISSUES HEWITT K, 1983, INTERPRETATIONS CALA IRWIN A, 1995, CITIZEN SCI STUDY PE IRWIN A, 1996, MISUNDERSTANDING SCI IRWIN A, 1996, MISUNDERSTANDING SCI, P47 JASANOFF S, 1998, RELIAB ENG SYST SAFE, V59, P91 KATES RW, 1962, 78 U CHIC DEP GEOGR KETTERIDGE AM, 1995, FLOOD WARNING LOCAL LAMB HH, 1991, HIST STORMS N SEA BR LANE SN, IN PRESS APPL GEOGRA LANE SN, 1998, HYDROL PROCESS, V12, P1131 LASH S, 1996, RISK ENV MODERNITY N LAW FM, 1998, CHRONOLOGY BRIT HYDR MACNAGHTEN P, 1998, CONTESTED NATURES MORRIS DG, 1996, 130 I HYDR MORROW BH, 1999, DISASTERS, V23, P1 NEWSON MD, 1975, FLOODING FLOOD HAZAR PARKER DJ, 1992, DISASTER PREVENTION, V1, P8 PARKER DJ, 1992, HAZARD MANAGEMENT EM PARKER DJ, 1998, J CONTINGENCIES CRIS, V6, P45 PENNINGROWSELL EC, 1997, WEAK LINK CHAIN FLOO PERCY SL, 1986, URBAN AFF QUART, V22, P66 PURSEGLOVE J, 1988, TAMING FLOOD HIST NA QUARANTELLI EL, 1998, IS DISASTER PERSPECT SCANLON J, 1990, HAZARDS COMMUNICATIO, P233 SZERSZYNSKI B, 1999, ENVIRON VALUE, V8, P239 WILLIAMS PB, 1994, CIVIL ENG MAY, P51 WYNNE B, 1992, PUBLIC UNDERST SCI, V1, P281 WYNNE B, 1996, RISK ENV MODERNITY N, P44 NR 62 TC 0 J9 TRANS INST BRIT GEOGR BP 412 EP 426 PY 2002 VL 27 IS 4 GA 634AK UT ISI:000180317700004 ER PT J AU KASPERSON, RE DOW, KM TI DEVELOPMENTAL AND GEOGRAPHICAL EQUITY IN GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL-CHANGE - A FRAMEWORK FOR ANALYSIS SO EVALUATION REVIEW LA English DT Article C1 CLARK UNIV,GRAD SCH GEOG,EARTH TRANSFORMED PROGRAM,WORCESTER,MA 01610. RP KASPERSON, RE, CLARK UNIV,CTR TECHNOL ENVIRONM & DEV,WORCESTER,MA 01610. CR *WORLD COMM ENV PE, 1987, OUR COMM FUT AKONGA J, 1988, IMPACT CLIMATIC VARI, V2, P221 ALI M, 1984, FAMINE GEOGRAPHICAL, P113 BAIRD A, 1975, U BRADFORD OCCASIONA, V11 BLAIKIE PM, 1987, LAND DEGRADATION SOC BOLIN B, 1986, GREENHOUSE EFFECT CL, P1 BOLLE HJ, 1986, GREENHOUSE EFFECT CL, P157 BROOKS H, 1986, SUSTAINABLE DEV BIOS, P325 BRUNDTLAND GH, 1989, GLOBAL CHANGE OUR CO, P10 BURTON I, 1978, ENV HAZARD, V1, P1 CALABRESE EJ, 1978, POLLUTANTS HIGH RISK CHAMBERS R, 1989, IDS B, V20, P1 CLARK WC, 1900, UNDERSTANDING GLOBAL, P5 DAVIS MB, 1988, UNDERSTANDING GLOBAL, P69 DOWNING TE, 1988, THESIS CLARK U FLAVIN C, 1987, ENVIRONMENT, V29, P12 FLAVIN C, 1987, ENVIRONMENT, V29, P39 FORESTIER K, 1989, NEW SCI 0701, P52 FUNTOWICZ SO, 1990, GLOBAL ENV ISSUES EM GLEICK PH, 1989, AMBIO, V18, P333 GOLDING D, 1989, DIFFERENTIAL SUSCEPT GRAEDEL TE, 1989, ENVIRONMENT, V31, P36 GRAEDEL TE, 1989, ENVIRONMENT, V31, P8 HOLLING CS, 1986, SUSTAINABLE DEV BIOS, V1, P1 KALDOR N, 1939, ECON J, V49, P549 KASPERSON RE, IN PRESS ACCETABLE E KASPERSON RE, IN PRESS P NAVF SCI KATES RW, 1985, CLIMATE IMPACT ASSES, P3 KELLOGG WW, 1981, CLIMATE CHANGE SOC KNEESE AV, 1983, EQUITY ISSUES RADIOA, P203 LIVERMAN DM, 1990, UNDERSTANDING GLOBAL, V1, P27 MAUDER WJ, 1985, CLIMATE IMPACT ASSES, P85 MILL JS, 1961, UTILITARIANISM ORIORDAN T, 1990, UNDERSTANDING GLOBAL, P45 PARRY ML, 1985, CLIMATE IMPACT ASSES, P351 PASSMORE J, 1974, MANS RESPONSIBILITY PIDDINGTON KW, 1989, ENVIRONMENT, V31, P18 RAWLS J, 1971, THEORY JUSTICE RIEBSAME W, 1989, ASSESSING SOCIAL IMP SCHNEIDER SH, 1989, SCIENCE, V243, P771 SHRADERFRECHETT.K, 1985, GLOBAL POSSIBLE, P97 SUSMAN P, 1983, INTERPRETATIONS CALA, P263 TURNER BL, IN PRESS GLOBAL ENV WATERSTONE M, 1985, GEOFORUM, V16, P301 WEISS EB, 1989, FARINESS FUTURE GENE WEISS EB, 1990, ENVIRONMENT, V32, P30 WEISS EB, 1990, ENVIRONMENT, V32, P7 NR 47 TC 9 J9 EVALUATION REV BP 149 EP 171 PY 1991 PD FEB VL 15 IS 1 GA ET875 UT ISI:A1991ET87500008 ER PT J AU Sullivan, C Meigh, J TI Targeting attention on local vulnerabilities using an integrated index approach: the example of the climate vulnerability index SO WATER SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY LA English DT Article C1 Ctr Ecol & Hydrol, Wallingford OX10 8BB, Oxon, England. RP Sullivan, C, Ctr Ecol & Hydrol, Wallingford OX10 8BB, Oxon, England. AB It is known that climate impacts can have significant effects on the environment, societies and economies. For human populations, climate change impacts can be devastating, giving rise to economic disruption and mass migration as agricultural systems fail, either through drought or floods. Such events impact significantly, not only where they happen, but also in the neighbouring areas. Vulnerability to the impacts of climate change needs to be assessed, so that adaptation strategies can be developed and populations can be protected. In this paper, we address the issue of vulnerability assessment through the use of an indicator approach, the climate vulnerability index (CVI). We show how this can overcome some of the difficulties of incommensurability associated with the combination of different types of data, and how the approach can be applied at a variety of scales. Through the development of nested index values, more reliable and robust coverage of large areas can be achieved, and we provide an indication of how this could be done. While further work is required to improve the methodology through wider application and component refinement, it seems likely that this approach will have useful application in the assessment of climate vulnerability. Through its application at sub-national and community scales, the CVI can help to identify those human populations most at risk from climate change impacts, and as a result, resources can be targeted towards those most in need. CR MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 *ISDR, 2002, LIV RISK *UNEP, 2002, GLOB ENV OUTL 3 PRES *WORLD BANK, 1998, STAND WELF IND AMADORE LA, 1996, WATER AIR SOIL POLL, V92, P1 CARNE D, 1998, SUSTAINABLE RURAL LI DGER N, 2002, NATURAL DISASTER DEV, P19 EDGEWORTH FY, 1925, ECON J, V35, P379 FISHER L, 1922, MAKING INDEX NUMBER HAMMOND A, 1995, ENV INDICATORS SYSTE LAL M, 2002, CLIMATE RES, V19, P179 LENTON TM, 2002, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V52, P409 MEIGH JR, IN PRESS LINK WAT RE RENNINGS K, 1997, ECOL ECON, V20, P25 ROGERS PR, 1997, MEASURING ENV QUALIT SCOONES I, 1998, 72 IDS STREETEN P, 1995, INT SOC SCI J, V47, P25 SULLIVAN CA, 2002, SCOPING STUDY IDENTI SULLIVAN CA, 2003, NAT RESOUR FORUM, V27, P189 NR 19 TC 2 J9 WATER SCI TECHNOL BP 69 EP 78 PY 2005 VL 51 IS 5 GA 931CW UT ISI:000229464400012 ER PT J AU Page, EA TI Fairness on the day after tomorrow: Justice, reciprocity and global climate change SO POLITICAL STUDIES LA English DT Article C1 Univ Warwick, Dept Polit & Int Studies, Coventry CV4 7AL, W Midlands, England. RP Page, EA, Univ Warwick, Dept Polit & Int Studies, Coventry CV4 7AL, W Midlands, England. AB Climate change raises important questions of global distributive justice, which can be defined as the issue of how benefits and burdens should be distributed within and between generations. This article addresses two conceptual issues that underpin the relationship between climate change and the part of distributive justice concerned with the entitlements of future persons. The first is the role of reciprocity, conceived either as mutual advantage or fair play, in the allocation of distributive entitlements between generations. The second is the extent to which theories of 'justice as reciprocity' can ground duties of intergenerational justice that underpin radical policies to manage the causes and impacts of global climate change. I argue that theories of justice as fair reciprocity generate significant duties of environmental conservation, despite these duties not being owed directly to the not-yet-born. 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In this volume nine such "critical environmental regions" (Amazonia, the Aral Sea basin, the middle mountains of Nepal, Kenya's Ukambani region, the US Southern High Plains, the Mexico Basin, the North Sea, the Ordos Plateau of China, and the eastern Sundaland region of South-East Asia) are examined as case studies. CR DOW KM, 1992, GEOFORUM, V23, P417 HOLLING CS, 1986, SUSTAINABLE DEV BIOS, V1, P1 KASPERSON RE, 1990, UNDERSTANDING GLOBAL KREPS GA, 1984, ANNU REV SOCIOL, V10, P309 LIVERMAN DM, 1990, UNDERSTANDING GLOBAL, V1, P27 OSTROM E, 1990, GOVERNING COMMONS EV TURNER BL, 1989, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V79, P88 TURNER BL, 1990, EARTH TRANSFORMED HU TURNER BL, 1990, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V1, P14 WATTS MJ, 1993, PROG HUM GEOG, V17, P43 NR 8 TC 0 BP 1 EP 588 PY 1995 VL 1 ER PT J AU Jury, MR TI Economic impacts of climate variability in South Africa and development of resource prediction models SO JOURNAL OF APPLIED METEOROLOGY LA English DT Article C1 Univ Zululand, Dept Environm Studies, ZA-3886 Kwa Dlangezwa, South Africa. RP Jury, MR, Univ Zululand, Dept Environm Studies, ZA-3886 Kwa Dlangezwa, South Africa. AB An analysis of food and water supplies and economic growth in South Africa leads to the realization that climate variability plays a major role. Summer rainfall in the period of 1980-99 is closely associated (variance = 48%) with year-to-year changes in the gross domestic product (GDP). Given the strong links between climate and resources, statistical models are formulated to predict maize yield, river flows, and GDP directly. The most influential predictor is cloud depth (outgoing longwave radiation) in the tropical Indian Ocean in the preceding spring (September-November). Reduced monsoon convection is related to enhanced rainfall over South Africa in the following summer and greater economic prosperity during the subsequent year. Methodologies are outlined and risk-reduction strategies are reviewed. It is estimated that over U.S.$1 billion could be saved annually through uptake of timely and reliable long-range forecasts. 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Differential income, capacity and ability to adapt to the negative consequences of climate change means that vulnerability and resilience of different social groups necessitates a gendered approach. The article looks at the inherent human security issues that are integral to climate change, in terms of adaptation and mitigation. It focuses briefly on the "neglect" of gender issues within the overall climate debate and makes suggestions why gender issues were initially sidetracked from the main debate. Climate sensitive sectors such as agriculture, water and energy are explored and inherent links with gender are made. The article underscores the importance of integrating key lessons from the development discourses into the climate regime. CR *GEF UNDP UNOPS, 2003, COMM ACT ADDR CLIM C *GLOB ENV OUTL, 2002, PAST PRES FUT PERPS *UNEP UNFCCC, 2001, CLIM CHANG INF KIT *WORLD BANK, 2003, WORLD DEV REP DENTON F, 2000, ENERGIA NEWS OCT, V3 DENTON F, 2002, GENDER DEV CLIMATE C GOETZ AM, 1991, GENDER INT RELATIONS GUPTA J, 1999, RECIEL, V8, P200 MAGADZA CH, 2003, CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPT MASIKA R, 2002, GENDER DEV CLIMATE C MOSER CON, 1991, GENDER INT RELATIONS MWANDOSYA MJ, 1999, SURIVIVAL EMISSIONS NEUE HU, METHANE EMISSION RIC SKUSTCH M, 2002, CLIMATE CHANGE PROCE SOKONA Y, 2004, LPG INTRO SENEGAL WAMUKONYA N, 2001, ENERGIA NEWS, V4 NR 16 TC 0 J9 IDS BULL-INST DEVELOP STUD BP 42 EP + PY 2004 PD JUL VL 35 IS 3 GA 844HK UT ISI:000223148700007 ER PT J AU FISCHHOFF, B HOHENEMSER, C KASPERSON, RE KATES, RW TI HANDLING HAZARDS SO ENVIRONMENT LA English DT Article C1 CLARK UNIV,PROGRAM SCI TECHNOL & SOC,WORCESTER,MA 01610. CR 1976, SCIENCE, V192, P1084 BICK T, UNPUBLISHED BLUM A, 1977, SCIENCE, V195, P17 BURTON I, 1978, ENV HAZARD, V1, P1 CHRISTENSEN H, 1976, SUSPECTED CARCINOGEN FISCHHOFF B, POLICY SCI FISCHHOFF B, UNPUBLISHED FREEMAN F, ROLE HUMAN FACTORS A HADDON W, 1975, TECHNOLOGY REV, V77, P52 HOHENEMSER C, 1977, SCIENCE, V196, P25 METLAY DS, 1978, ESSAYS ISSUES RELEVA, P2 PIMENTEL D, 1978, ENV SOCIAL COSTS PES PRESTON CE, 1965, J APPL PSYCHOL, V49, P284 ROBERTSON LS, 1977, DRIVER ED FATAL CRAS SHABECOFF P, 1978, NY TIMES 0607 SVENSON O, 1977, 377 COMM FUT OR RES THOMAS L, 1978, SCIENCE, V200, P1459 TULLER J, 1978, SCOPE HAZARD MANAGEM WEIDENBAUM M, 1978, 32 G WASH U CTR STUD NR 19 TC 11 J9 ENVIRONMENT BP 16 EP & PY 1978 VL 20 IS 7 GA FS329 UT ISI:A1978FS32900004 ER PT J AU Beck, T Nesmith, C TI Building on poor people's capacities: The case of common property resources in India and West Africa SO WORLD DEVELOPMENT LA English DT Article C1 Inst Asian Res, Vancouver, BC, Canada. RP Beck, T, Inst Asian Res, Vancouver, BC, Canada. AB This article examines the relation between poor women and men and common property resources (cprs). It locates poor people's use of cprs within a wider focus on sustainable livelihoods, which argues that development initiatives need to build on people's assets and strengths, and identifies cprs as a crucial element of poor people's coping and adaptive strategies. The article considers evidence from India and West Africa with a particular focus on poverty reduction, equity, gender and management issues. Development agencies and governments which have re-focused their attention on poverty in recent years will find that cprs provide an entry point to understanding poor people's perceptions of poverty and for building on their capacities. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. 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AB Although the loss of good health is inherently unpredictable, human behavior at the individual and societal levels profoundly influences the incidence and evolution of disease. In this review, we define the human epidemiological environment and describe key biophysical, economic, sociocultural, and political factors that shape it. The potential impact upon the epidemiological environment of biophysical aspects of global change-changes in the size, mobility, and geographic distribution of the human population; land conversion; agricultural intensification; and climate change-is then examined. Human vulnerability to disease is strongly and deleteriously influenced by many of these ongoing, intensifying alterations. We then examine threats to human defenses against disease, including immune suppression, loss of biodiversity and indigenous knowledge, and the evolution of antibiotic resistance. Effective responses will require greatly enhanced attention by and collaboration among experts in diverse academic disciplines, in the private sector, and in government worldwide. 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V38, P7 VANDERSCHALIE H, 1974, ENVIRONOMENT, V16, P18 WEBSTER RG, 1993, EMERGING VIRUSES, P37 WEIHE WH, 1991, CLIMATE CHANGE SCI I, P345 WILSON EO, 1992, DIVERSITY LIFE WUETHRICH B, 1994, NEW SCI 1015, P9 NR 161 TC 2 J9 ANNU REV ENERG ENVIRON BP 125 EP 144 PY 1996 VL 21 GA VW793 UT ISI:A1996VW79300007 ER PT J AU Baulch, B TI The new poverty agenda: A disputed consensus (Editorial) (Reprinted from IDS Bulletin, vol 27, 1996) SO IDS BULLETIN-INSTITUTE OF DEVELOPMENT STUDIES LA English DT Reprint CR *IDS, 1994, POV ASS PUBL EXP STU *ODA, 1995, PROGR REP ODAS POL O *UNDP, 1991, HUM DEV REP *UNDP, 1993, UNDP CHART CHANG *WORLD BANK, 1990, WORLD DEV REP 1990 *WORLD BANK, 1991, ASS STRAT RED POV *WORLD BANK, 1993, IMPL WORLD BANKS STR *WORLD BANK, 1994, WORLD BANK PART ADDISON T, 1994, POVERTY REDUCTION DE BAULCH B, 1996, IDS BULL-I DEV STUD, V27 BOOTH C, 1892, LIFE LABOUR PEOPLE L CAMDESSUS M, 1990, FINANCE DEV SEP CASSEN R, 1986, DOES AID WORK CHAMBERS R, 1983, RURAL DEV PUTTING LA CHAMBERS 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SEP VL 37 IS 4 GA 100QV UT ISI:000241684600015 ER PT J AU Coombes, P Barber, K TI Environmental determinism in Holocene research: causality or coincidence? SO AREA LA English DT Article C1 Univ Wales, Inst Geog & Earth Sci, Aberystwyth SY23 3DB, Dyfed, Wales. Univ Southampton, Sch Geog, Palaeoecol Lab, Southampton SO17 1BJ, Hants, England. RP Coombes, P, Univ Wales, Inst Geog & Earth Sci, Aberystwyth SY23 3DB, Dyfed, Wales. AB The past decade has seen a revival of environmental determinism in palaeoenvironmental research, with palaeoclimatic shifts implicated in the collapse of many past civilizations. Implicit in these studies is a belief that the observed cultural transitions can be causally related to the magnitude of climatic change. However, examination of the processes of these declines suggests that many exhibit patterns characteristic of complexity cascading within self-organized systems. if so, the nonlinear nature of these systems' responses to external forcing means that the assumption of causality in many of these cases should be considered questionable. 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Louisiana State Univ, Dept Geog & Anthropol, Baton Rouge, LA 70803 USA. Louisiana State Univ, Inst Coastal Studies, Baton Rouge, LA 70803 USA. Louisiana State Univ, Dept Oceanog & Coastal Sci, Baton Rouge, LA 70803 USA. RP Muller, RA, Louisiana State Univ, So Reg Climate Ctr, Baton Rouge, LA 70803 USA. AB A simple model of the average swath of tropical storm and hurricane-force winds to the right and left of storm centers is developed and utilized to evaluate the geographical and temporal distribution of storm strikes at "point locations" along the subtropical coast of the United States. The specific area of study is from South Padre Island, Texas, to Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. The time of record is 100 years from 1901 through 2000. The analysis illustrates the great geographical variability with high frequencies of tropical storm and hurricane strikes in southeastern Louisiana, southern Florida, and eastern North Carolina. Coastlines with lower frequency strikes are located along the western coastline of the Gulf of Mexico in southern Texas, the northeastern coastline of the Gulf in Florida from near Apalachicola southward to St. Petersburg, and especially along the South Atlantic coast from Daytona Beach, Florida, northward to the vicinity of Charleston, South Carolina. Temporal variability is great and significant, however, and with the exception of the northern Gulf Coast, most coastal sites have experienced pronounced clusters of strikes separated by tens of years with very few strikes. The occurrences of tropical storm and hurricane events over the Gulf of Mexico are related to La Nina, neutral, and El Nino seasons, but the clusters of strike events and longer runs of seasons with minimal activity cannot be explained on the basis of ENSO indices alone. Our findings have important implications for storm clusters and vulnerability prediction along coasts. CR *NOAA NAT CLIM DAT, 1969, CLIM DAT LOUIS *US ARM CORPS ENG, 1972, HIST HURR OCC COAST BARNES J, 1998, FLORIDAS HURRICANE H DUNN GE, 1960, ATLANTIC HURRICANES ELSNER J, 1999, HURRICANES N ATLANTI ELSNER JB, 1999, J CLIMATE, V12, P427 GRAY WM, 1999, 10 S GLOB CHANG STUD, P183 GRYMES JM, 1995, J COASTAL RES, V21, P6 HEBERT PJ, 1995, NWSNHC24 NOAA HSU SA, 1988, COASTAL METEOROLOGY NEUMANN CJ, 1993, HIST CLIMATOLOGY SER, V62 PIELKE RA, 1997, HURRICANES THEIR NAT PIELKE RA, 1999, B AM METEOROL SOC, V80, P2027 SIMPSON RH, 1971, NWSSR58 NOAA SIMPSON RH, 1981, HURRICANE ITS IMPACT STONE GW, 1996, EOS T AM GEOPHYSICAL, V77 STONE GW, 1999, EOS T AM GEOPHYS UN, V80, P301 NR 17 TC 4 J9 J COASTAL RES BP 949 EP 956 PY 2001 PD FAL VL 17 IS 4 GA 498PP UT ISI:000172520100017 ER PT J AU Lautze, S Raven-Roberts, A TI Violence and complex humanitarian emergencies: implications for livelihoods models SO DISASTERS LA English DT Article C1 Livelihoods Program, Camp Sherman, OR 97730 USA. RP Lautze, S, Livelihoods Program, 13778 SW Meadowview Dr, Camp Sherman, OR 97730 USA. AB This paper explores the nature of the violence that characterises complex humanitarian emergencies and the related implications for modelling livelihoods systems. While noting the importance of livelihoods approaches in complex humanitarian emergencies, it deliberates the limitations of sustainable livelihoods frameworks when applied in environments marked by protracted instability. Adaptations to the model are discussed, with a particular focus on the relationships among violence, assets and liabilities within livelihoods systems. Political economy of violence theories intimate that the assets on which livelihoods systems are constructed in peaceful times may instead become life-and livelihood-threatening liabilities in periods of conflict. Adaptations to livelihood systems in violent settings require that analysts consider violence from policy, institutional and process perspectives. It is suggested that vulnerability should be re-conceptualised as endogenous to livelihoods systems in violent settings. Building on the work of others, a livelihoods model adapted for complex humanitarian emergencies is presented. 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Indiana Univ, Ctr Study Populat Inst & Environm Change, CIPEC, Bloomington, IN 47405 USA. Indiana Univ, Dept Anthropol, Bloomington, IN 47405 USA. Indiana Univ, Dept Geog, Bloomington, IN 47405 USA. RP Moran, EF, Indiana Univ, Anthropol Ctr Training Global Environm Change, ACT, Bloomington, IN 47405 USA. AB This article reports on findings of a research project examining farmers' coping strategies in the Brazilian Amazon in response to El Nino related weather events. We examine the extent of vulnerability of small and large farmers to these events in a tropical rainforest environment. Little attention has been given to the impact of ENSO events in Amazonia, despite evidence for devastating fires during ENSOs. Although we found a range of locally developed forecasting techniques and coping mechanisms, farmers have sustained significant losses, and we suggest that increased access to scientific forecasts would greatly enhance the ability of the farmers in our study area to cope with El Nino related weather events. In Amazonia the El Nino phase of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) climate pattern leads to an extended period of reduced rainfall (Hobbs et al., 1998). This period of reduced rainfall can result in significant agricultural losses for farmers and ranchers in the area and in increased forest flammability. We have found that the majority of our study population uses several methods of forecasting, coping with, and adapting to drought events - and they recognize the economic losses they can experience and the loss of forests through the accidental spread of fire. The poorest farmers in our study area experience El Nino related drought events as a serious threat to their livelihoods. Their vulnerability is heightened during extreme climate events and our observations revealed that all of the farmers in our study would benefit from increased availability of improved forecast information relevant to their locality and their current farming strategies. This paper examines the availability and use of forecasts, the occurrence of accidental fires and techniques to prevent fire related losses, and the coping mechanisms for dealing with El Nino related drought in the agricultural regions surrounding the cities of Altamira and Santarem, in Para State, Brazil. Distribution of an El Nino Prediction Kit at the end of the study and a series of workshops may lead to better local information on rainfall variability and create a farmer-maintained grid of collecting stations to sensitize farmers to the variability of precipitation in the region, and on their property. CR *NAT RES COUNC, 1996, LEARN PRED CLIM VAR ALENCAR A, 1997, UNPUB USO FOGO AMAZO ALENCAR AAC, 2004, ECOL APPL S, V14, S139 ALEXANDER SW, 2002, SANTAREM RIVERBOAT T BENTO AAO, 2002, THESIS I LUTERANO EN CHANGNON SA, 2000, EL NINO 1997 1998 CL COCHRANE M, 1998, BTROA, V31, P2 COCHRANE MA, 2004, DEFORESTATION LAND U, P285 GAISER T, 2003, GLOBAL CHANGE REGION GASH JHC, 1996, AMAZONIAN DEFORESTAT HEWITT K, 1984, INTERPRETATIONS CALA HOBBS JE, 1998, CLIMATES SO CONTINEN HOLDSWORTH AR, 1997, ECOL APPL, V7, P713 JOHNSON BB, 1993, RISK ISSUES HLTH SAF, V4, P189 KATZ RW, 1997, EC VALUE WEATHER CLI LEFEBVRE PA, 1994, P INT S RES ENV MON, V7, P326 MEGGERS BJ, 1994, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V28, P321 MOLION L, 1990, DESAFIO AMAZONICO FU MORAN EF, 1981, DEV AMAZON MORAN EF, 2002, DEFORESTATION LAND U, P193 NELSON DR, 2000, PRACTICING ANTHR, V22, P6 NEPSTAD DC, 1999, FLAMES RAINFOREST OR NEPSTAD DC, 1999, NATURE, V398, P505 NOBRE CA, 1985, P C HURR TROP MET AM, P131 ORLOVE BS, 2000, NATURE, V403, P68 RIBOT JC, 1996, CLIMATE VARIABILITY, V1, P1 RONCOLI C, 2002, SOC NATUR RESOUR, V15, P409 SALDARRIAGA JG, 1988, J ECOL, V76, P938 SANFORD RL, 1985, SCIENCE, V227, P53 STERN PC, 1999, MAKING CLIMATE FOREC UHL C, 1990, CIENCIA HOJE, V11, P25 UHL C, 1990, ECOLOGY, V71, P437 WHITE GF, 1974, NATURAL HAZARDS LOCA WUETHRICH B, 2000, SCIENCE, V289, P35 NR 34 TC 0 J9 CLIMATIC CHANGE BP 343 EP 361 PY 2006 PD AUG VL 77 IS 3-4 GA 081HJ UT ISI:000240307600011 ER PT J AU Tarhule, A Lamb, PJ TI Climate research and seasonal forecasting for West Africans - Perceptions, dissemination, and use? SO BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY LA English DT Article C1 Univ Oklahoma, Dept Geog, Sarkeys Energy Ctr, Norman, OK 73019 USA. Univ Oklahoma, Sch Meteorol, Norman, OK 73019 USA. Univ Oklahoma, Cooperat Inst Mesoscale Meteorol Studies, Norman, OK 73019 USA. RP Tarhule, A, Univ Oklahoma, Dept Geog, Sarkeys Energy Ctr, 100 E Boyd St, Norman, OK 73019 USA. AB Beginning in response to the disastrous drought of 1968-73, considerable research and monitoring have focused on the characteristics, causes, predictability, and impacts of West African Soudano-Sahel (10degrees-18degreesN) rainfall variability and drought. While these efforts have generated substantial information on a range of these topics, very little is known of the extent to which communities, activities at risk, and policy makers are aware of, have access to, or use such information. This situation has prevailed despite Glantz's provocative BAMS paper on the use and value of seasonal forecasts for the Sahel more than a quarter century ago. We now provide a systematic reevaluation of these issues based on questionnaire responses of 566 participants (in 13 communities) and 26 organizations in Burkina Faso, Mali, Niger, and Nigeria. The results reveal that rural inhabitants have limited access to climate information, with nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) being the most important source. Moreover, the pathways for information flow are generally weakly connected and informal. As a result, utilization of the results of climate research is very low to nonexistent, even by organizations responsible for managing the effects of climate variability. Similarly, few people have access to seasonal climate forecasts, although the vast majority expressed a willingness to use such information when it becomes available. Those respondents with access expressed great enthusiasm and satisfaction with seasonal forecasts. The results suggest that inhabitants of the Soudano-Sahel savanna are keen for changes that improve their ability to cope with climate variability, but the lack of information on alternative courses of action is a major constraint. Our study, thus, essentially leaves unchanged both Glantz's negative "tentative conclusion" and more positive "preliminary assessment" of 25 years ago. Specifically, while many of the infrastructural deficiencies and socioeconomic impediments remain, the great yearning for climate information by Soudano-Sahalians suggests that the time is finally ripe for fostering increased use. Therefore, a simple model for improved dissemination of climate research and seasonal climate forecast information is proposed. The tragedy is that a quarter century has passed since Glantz's clarion call. 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Southampton Oceanog Ctr, James Rennell Div Ocean Circulat & Climate, Southampton SO14 3ZH, Hants, England. Southampton Oceanog Ctr, Channel Coastal Observ, Southampton SO14 3ZH, Hants, England. Univ E Anglia, Climat Res Unit, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. Proudman Oceanog Lab, Liverpool L3 5DA, Merseyside, England. RP Tsimplis, MN, Tyndall Ctr Climate Change Res, European Way, Southampton SO14 3ZH, Hants, England. AB Within the framework of a Tyndall Centre research project, sea level and wave changes around the UK and in the North Sea have been analysed. This paper integrates the results of this project. Many aspects of the contribution of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) to sea level and wave height have been resolved. The NAO is a major forcing parameter for sea-level variability. Strong positive response to increasing NAO was observed in the shallow parts of the North Sea, while slightly negative response was found in the southwest part of the UK. The cause of the strong positive response is mainly the increased westerly winds. The NAO increase during the last decades has affected both the mean sea level and the extreme sea levels in the North Sea. The derived spatial distribution of the NAO-related variability of sea level allows the development of scenarios for future sea level and wave height in the region. Because the response of sea level to the NAO is found to be variable in time across all frequency bands, there is some inherent uncertainty in the use of the empirical relationships to develop scenarios of future sea level. Nevertheless, as it remains uncertain whether the multi-decadal NAO variability is related to climate change, the use of the empirical relationships in developing scenarios is justified. The resulting scenarios demonstrate: (i) that the use of regional estimates of sea level increase the projected range of sea-level change by 50% and (ii) that the contribution of the NAO to winter sea-level variability increases the range of uncertainty by a further 10-20 cm. On the assumption that the general circulation models have some skill in simulating the future NAO change, then the NAO contribution to sea-level change around the UK is expected to be very small (< 4 cm) by 2080. Wave heights are also sensitive to the NAO changes, especially in the western coasts of the UK. Under the same scenarios for future NAO changes, the projected significant wave-height changes in the northeast Atlantic will exceed 0.4 m. In addition, wave-direction changes of around 20 degrees per unit NAO index have been documented for one location. Such changes raise the possibility of consequential alteration of coastal erosion. 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Bauhaus Univ Weimar, D-99421 Weimar, Germany. Univ Leipzig, D-04103 Leipzig, Germany. Munich Reinsurance Co, D-80791 Munich, Germany. RP Grunthal, G, Geoforschungszentrum Potsdam, Telegrafenberg, D-14473 Potsdam, Germany. AB In this paper a methodology for a multi-risk assessment of an urban area is introduced and performed for the city of Cologne, Germany, considering the natural hazards windstorm, flooding and earthquake. Moreover, sources of the uncertainty in the analysis and future needs for research are identified. For each peril the following analyses were undertaken: hazard assessment, vulnerability assessment and estimation of losses. To compare the three hazard types on a consistent basis, a common economic assessment of exposed assets was developed. This was used to calculate direct economic losses to buildings and their contents. The perils were compared by risk curves showing the exceedence probability of the estimated losses. In Cologne, most of the losses that occur frequently are due to floods and windstorms. For lower return periods (10-200 years) the risk is dominated by floods. For return periods of more than 200 years the highest damage is caused by earthquakes. 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Univ Vermont, Burlington, VT 05405 USA. RP Gowdy, J, Rensselaer Polytech Inst, Dept Econ, Troy, NY 12180 USA. AB This paper discusses the major tenets of ecological economics-including value pluralism, methodological pluralism and multi-criteria policy assessment. Ecological economics offers viable alternatives to the theoretical foundations and policy recommendations of neoclassical welfare economics. A revolution in neoclassical economics is currently taking place, and the core assumptions of welfare economics are being replaced with more realistic models of consumer and firm behaviour. This paper argues that these new theoretical and empirical findings are largely ignored in applied work and policy applications in environmental economics. As the only heterodox school of economics focusing on the human economy both as a social system and as one imbedded in the biophysical universe, and thus both holistic and scientifically based, ecological economics is poised to play a leading role in recasting the scope and method of economic science. 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Colorado State Univ, Dept Biol, Ft Collins, CO 80523 USA. RP Lytle, DA, Oregon State Univ, Dept Zool, Corvallis, OR 97331 USA. AB Floods and droughts are important features of most running water ecosystems, but the alteration of natural flow regimes by recent human activities, such as dam building, raises questions related to both evolution and conservation. Among organisms inhabiting running waters, what adaptations exist for surviving floods and droughts? How will the alteration. of the frequency, timing and duration of flow extremes affect flood- and drought-adapted organisms? How rapidly can populations evolve in response to altered flow regimes? Here, we identify three modes of adaptation (life history, behavioral and morphological) that plants and animals use to survive floods and/or droughts. The mode of adaptation that an organism has determines its vulnerability to different kinds of flow regime alteration. The rate of evolution in response to flow regime alteration remains an open question. Because humans have now altered the flow regimes of most rivers and many streams, understanding the link between fitness and flow regime is crucial for the effective management and restoration of running water ecosystems. 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RP Clark, WC, Harvard Univ, John F Kennedy Sch Govt, Cambridge, MA 02138 USA. CR *NRC COMM GLOB CHA, 1999, GLOB ENV CHANG RES P *NRC, 1999, OUR COMM JOURN TRANS, CH2 *SOC LEARN GROUP, 2001, IN PRESS LEARN MAN G *UNEP, 1999, GLOB ENV OUTL 2000 *UNEP, 1999, UNEPPOPSINCCEG23 *US EPA, 1988, ENV JUL, P15 ALBRIGHT MK, 2000, ALLIANCE GLOBAL WATE ANNAN KA, 2000, ENVIRONMENT ANNAN KA, 2000, SGSM7343 BAKER J, 1990, DIPLOMACY ENV CLARK WC, 2000, IN PRESS VISIONS GOV CRISTOPHER W, 1996, AM DIPLOMACY GLOBAL CROSBY A, 1986, ECOLOGICAL IMPERIALI DIAMOND J, 1997, GUNS GERMS STEEL FAT DRAKE JA, 1986, BIOL INVASIONS ELLSWORTH R, 2000, AM NATL INTERSTS REP HEYWOOD VH, 1995, GLOBAL BIODIVERSITY HOMERDIXON T, 1999, SCARCITY VIOLENCE JACOBS JCG, 1999, J RHEUMATOL S55, V26, P14 KASPERSON JX, 1995, REGIONS RISK, V1, P1 MACK RN, ISSUES ECOLOGY MCNEILL W, 1976, PLAGUES PEOPLES NYE JS, 1990, BOUND LEAD CHANGING PORTER R, 1989, FOREIGN EC POLICYMAK REJMANEK M, 1994, MADRONO, V41, P161 SANDLER T, 1997, GLOBAL CHALLENGES AP TURNER BL, 1990, EARTH TRANSFORMED HU VITOUSEK P, 1997, ISSUES ECOLOGY VITOUSEK PM, 1997, SCIENCE 0725, P494 WATSON R, 1998, PROTECTING OUR PLANE NR 30 TC 0 J9 ENVIRONMENT BP 18 EP 27 PY 2001 PD JAN-FEB VL 43 IS 1 GA 450XD UT ISI:000169769400003 ER PT J AU Liso, KR Aandahl, G Eriksen, S Alfsen, KH TI Preparing for climate change impacts in Norway's built environment SO BUILDING RESEARCH AND INFORMATION LA English DT Article C1 Norwegian Bldg Res Inst, N-0314 Oslo, Norway. CICERO, N-0318 Oslo, Norway. Stat Norway, N-0033 Oslo, Norway. RP Liso, KR, Norwegian Bldg Res Inst, POB 123 Blindern, N-0314 Oslo, Norway. AB This paper provides an overview of the Norwegian climate policy and of the practical implications of preparing Norway for climate change, with special emphasis on the challenges confronting the built environment. Although the Norwegian government has been relatively proactive in instituting measures aimed at halting global climate change, less attention has been paid to the challenge of adapting to climate change. The global climate system is likely to undergo changes, regardless of the implementation of abatement policies under the Kyoto Protocol or other regimes. The full range of impacts resulting from these changes is still uncertain; however, it is becoming increasingly clear that adaptation to climate change is necessary and inevitable within several sectors. The potential impacts of climate change in the built environment are now being addressed. Both the functionality of the existing built environment and the design of future buildings are likely to be altered by climate change impacts, and the expected implications of these new conditions are now investigated. However, measures aimed at adjustments within individual sectors, such as altering the criteria and codes of practice for the design and construction of buildings, constitute only a partial adaptation to climate change. In order to adapt effectively, larger societal and intersectoral adjustments are necessary. CR 2001, ECONOMIST 0203 2001, NY TIMES 0131 2002, NEW SCI, V175 *MIN ENV, 1991, GREENH EFF IMP MIT *MIN ENV, 2001, 54 MIN ENV *MIN ENV, 2002, 15 MIN ENV *MIN ENV, 2002, 54 MIN ENV *NAT OFF BUILD TEC, 1993, ORK 1992 *NOU, 2000, 200024 NOU MIN JUST ADGER N, 1996, APPROACHES VULNERABI, P1 BORNEHAG CG, 2001, INDOOR AIR, V11, P72 CAMILLERI M, 2001, BUILD RES INF, V29, P440 CHAMBERS R, 1989, IDS B, V20, P1 DOLAN AH, 2001, 26 U GUELPH DEP GEOG DOWNING TE, 1995, CLIMATE CHANGE WORLD, P183 ERIKSEN SH, 2002, DYNAMISM COPING LOCA GRAVES HM, 2000, POTENTIAL IMPLICATIO INGVALDSEN T, 1994, 163 NBI NORW BUILD R INGVALDSEN T, 2001, 308 NBI NORW BUILD R KELLY PM, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V47, P325 LISO KR, 2002, 2 INT BUILD PHYS C 2 LISO KR, 2002, CLIMATE 2000 BUILDIN LOENG H, 1995, CANADIAN SPECIAL PUB, V121, P691 LOWE R, 2001, 0104 CRISP CTR BUILT MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 NAESS LO, 2002, I DIMENSIONS CLIMATE OBRIEN KL, 2002, CLIMATIC CHANGE PALUTIKOF JP, 1997, EC IMPACTS HOT SUMME PARRY MLE, 2000, ASSESSMENT POTENTIAL SAELTHUN NR, 1998, CLIMATE CHANGE IMPAC SKAUGEN TE, 2002, 0202 DNMI NORW MET I SMIT B, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P223 SMITH JB, 2001, ISUMA, V2, P75 SYGNA L, 2001, OPPS SEM OSL 30 31 O TUCKER M, 1997, ECOL ECON, V22, P85 YOHE GW, 2002, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V12, P25 NR 36 TC 8 J9 BUILDING RES INFORM BP 200 EP 209 PY 2003 PD MAY-AUG VL 31 IS 3-4 GA 688EE UT ISI:000183419700002 ER PT J AU Hein, L TI The impacts of grazing and rainfall variability on the dynamics of a Sahelian rangeland SO JOURNAL OF ARID ENVIRONMENTS LA English DT Article C1 Wageningen Univ, Environm Syst Anal Grp, NL-6700 AA Wageningen, Netherlands. RP Hein, L, Wageningen Univ, Environm Syst Anal Grp, POB 47, NL-6700 AA Wageningen, Netherlands. AB The impacts of grazing pressure and rainfall variability on rangeland dynamics have been the topic of much debate. Understanding the combined impact of these two factors is crucial for the development of efficient management strategies for rangelands. In this paper, the impacts of grazing and rainfall variability on the dynamics of a Sahelian rangeland in Northern Senegal are examined. Specifically, the paper assesses their combined impact on species composition, above-ground phytomass production and rain-use efficiency (RUE), on the basis of a 10-year (1981-1990) grazing experiment conducted in the Widou-Thiengoly catchment in the Ferlo, Northern Senegal. The experiment included both a high (0.15-0.20 TLU ha(-1), corresponding to current grazing) and a medium (0.10 TLU ha(-1)) grazing pressure. It is shown that species composition, above-ground phytomass production and RUE markedly differ for these two grazing regimes-and that the differences are most pronounced in years with low rainfall. In dry years, both above-ground phytomass production and RUE are significantly reduced in the plots subject to a high grazing pressure. Consequently, the impacts of high grazing pressures on the productivity of the Ferlo are hardly noticed during years with normal or above normal rainfall, but the rangeland's productivity is strongly affected during a drought. The findings have important implications for the management of rangelands; they indicate that high grazing pressures may increase the vulnerability of rangeland ecosystems and local people to droughts. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 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RP Herrmann, SM, Univ Arizona, Off Arid Land Studies, Tucson, AZ 85719 USA. AB A great many debates have grown up around the notion of desertification as a process of degradation that affects the arid, semi-arid and sub-humid zones of the globe. A fundamental and continuing debate has been over whether desertification actually exists and, if so, how it might be defined, measured and assessed. Rather than simply review the evolution of these debates we examine the contexts in which they take place and how those contexts have contributed to the evolution of our understanding of the intertwined processes that contribute to desertification. The fact that these contexts have changed over time, combined with the fact that some of them are often ignored have both helped to sustain debate. We consider four contexts that frame much of the debate and consider what impact each has had: (1) changes in our understanding of climate variability; (2) changes in our understanding of vegetation responses to perturbation; (3) changes in our understanding of social processes, including household responses to economic perturbation; and (4) changes in our understanding of desertification as a political process or artifact. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 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German Aerosp Ctr, Transportat Res Inst, Berlin, Germany. RP Klepeis, P, Colgate Univ, Dept Geog, 13 Oak Dr, Hamilton, NY 13346 USA. AB A lingering question in economic geography is the degree to which there is a link between neoliberal policies and environmental degradation. Research is needed to relate such policies empirically to local-level decision making, both to evaluate their consequences and to contribute to an understanding of how cross-scalar dynamics drive processes of land-use change. This study examines the environmental impacts of a Mexican rural support program, referred to by its Spanish acronym, PROCAMPO, which was introduced in 1994 as part of a comprehensive agenda to liberalize the agricultural sector. Using both descriptive analyses of the study region's political ecology and econometric modeling, we draw on a panel of farm-household data spanning 1986-1997 to assess the impact of PROCAMPO on land-use change in southeastern Mexico. The results indicate that the program has had the unintended effect of fostering deforestation and has led to an only modest increase in market production. These findings suggest that alternative mechanisms may be needed to achieve the market integration and agricultural modernization sought by neoliberal policies and that such policies may have to be restructured to avoid unintended environmental impacts. By connecting macro-level economic phenomena with regional and local environmental impacts, this study addresses the linkages of cross-scale human-environment interaction. 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Univ Waterloo, Dept Geog, Fac Environm Studies, Waterloo, ON N2L 3G1, Canada. RP Scott, D, Univ Waterloo, Adaptat & Impacts Res Grp, Fac Environm Studies, Environm Canada, Waterloo, ON N2L 3G1, Canada. AB The winter tourism industry has been repeatedly identified as potentially vulnerable to global climate change. Climate change impact assessments of ski areas in Australia, Europe and North America all project negative consequences for the industry. An important limitation of earlier studies has been the incomplete consideration of snowmaking as a climate adaptation strategy. Recognising that snowmaking is an integral component of the ski industry, this study examined how current and improved snowmaking capacity affects the vulnerability of the ski industry in southern Ontario (Canada) to climate variability and change. A 17 yr record of daily snow conditions and operations from a primary ski area in the region was used to calibrate a ski season simulation model that included a snowmaking module with climatic thresholds and operational decision rules based on interviews with ski area managers. Climate change scenarios (2020s, 2050s, 2080s) were developed by downscaling climate variables from 4 general circulation models (using both IS92a and SIZES emission scenarios) with the LARS weather generator (parameterized to local climate stations) for input into a daily snow depth simulation model. In contrast to earlier studies, the results indicate that ski areas in the region could remain operational in a warmer climate, particularly within existing business planning and investment time horizons (into the 2020s), The economic impact of additional snowmaking requirements remains an important uncertainty. Under climate change scenarios and current snowmaking technology, the average ski season at the case study ski area was projected to reduce by 0-16 % in the 2020s, 7-32 % in the 2050s and 11-50 % in the 2080s. Concurrent with the projected ski season losses, the estimated amount of snowmaking required increased by 36-144 % in the scenarios for the 2020s. Required snowmaking amounts increased by 48-187 % in the scenarios for the 2020s. The ability of individual ski areas to absorb additional snowmaking costs and remain economically viable in addition to the relative impact of climate change on other nearby ski regions (Quebec, Michigan and Vermont) remain important avenues of further research. The findings reveal the importance of examining a wide range of climate change scenarios and the necessity of including snowmaking and other adaptation strategies in future climate change vulnerability assessments of the ski industry and winter tourism in other regions of the world. 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A meta-analysis of household economy studies SO GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS LA English DT Article C1 Univ Witwatersrand, Sch Geog, ZA-2195 Fairland, South Africa. RP Misselhorn, AA, Univ Witwatersrand, Sch Geog, 1 Desrell Gardens,51 Kessel St, ZA-2195 Fairland, South Africa. AB Food insecurity. and the factors that determine it, are experienced at the level of the household and the individual. Food insecurity is also spatially varied across regions. In this paper meta-analysis is used to synthesize 49 household economy local-level studies that focus on community-level livelihood strategies to identify drivers of food insecurity in southern Africa. The results reveal entrenched cycles of vulnerability in southern Africa's food insecure communities, where socio-economic issues feature prominently. The direct causes of inadequate food access are poverty, environmental stressors and conflict: these account for 50% of the identified indirect drivers of food insecurity. Meta-analysis is used to suggest the common processes behind food insecurity that take specific forms in particular communities. The findings underscore the need to understand the multiple social and political dimensions of food insecurity, such as the breakdown in social capital associated with poverty, conflict and HIV/AIDS, that run deeper than environmental constraints to food production. © 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 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Univ Bath, Dept Math, Bath BA2 7AY, Avon, England. RP Room, G, Univ Bath, Dept Social & Policy Sci, Claverton Down, Bath BA2 7AY, Avon, England. AB Much mainstream analysis of the dynamics of social exclusion is concerned with the changing circumstances of households, using panel and cohort studies. However, changes in these circumstances are mediated by institutional processes and can be adequately explained only if the interactions of institutional and household strategies are taken into account. This is also a precondition of sound inferences for policy. These interactions may involve feedback loops and cumulative change: these require analysis as dynamic systems. The article explores how such dynamic systems can be modelled. It proposes a toolkit that brings together qualitative and quantitative modelling techniques, checks them against empirical data and roots their interpretation within an action frame of reference. 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AB Today's world is characterized by rapid changes. Socio-economic changes are accompanied by increasing environmental pressures on natural resources. Decrease in quality and quantity of resources, rapid population growth and unequal access to resources are the main three factors that through increased of resources - decreasing environmental security, and consequently risks of population displacement, social instability and possibly even violent conflict. In a 'Conventional Development' scenario world, rapid growth of population and economy, and the associated demands for food, water, energy and raw materials lead to increased environmental pressures and associated scarcity of resources, and thus, to increased security risks. Most important for the majority of conflicts, those within countries or regions, is the increasing scarcity and inequitable distribution of renewable resources, notably fresh water resources and arable land. These risks are exacerbated by large-scale environmental changes, such as climate change. Risk of conflicts between countries can be increased by the scarcity and unequal distribution of renewable resources too, but also by scarcity of non-renewable resources. An example is the increased concentration of fossil energy supply (notably oil and gas) in a limited number of politically unstable world regions. Copyright (C) 1996 Elsevier Science Ltd CR ALXAMO J, 1994, IMAGE 20 INTEGRATED ENGELMAN R, 1993, POPULATION ACTION IN ENGELMAN R, 1995, POPULATION ACTION IN GLEICK PH, 1993, WATER CRISIS HOMERDIXON TF, 1993, SCI AM HOMERDIXON TF, 1994, INT SECURITY, V19, P5 LEACH G, 1995, GLOBAL LAND FOOD 21 MCCAFFREY SC, 1993, WATER CRISIS MORITA T, 1995, LONG TERM GLOBAL SCE RASKIN P, UNPUB GLOBAL SCENARI RASKIN P, 1995, GLOBAL ENERGY 21 CEN RASKIN P, 1995, SUSTAINABILITY TRANS RASKIN P, 1995, WATER SUSTAINABILITY SWART RJ, 1994, THESIS FREE U AMSTER THOMAS C, 1992, ENV INT RELATIONS NR 15 TC 2 J9 GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANGE BP 187 EP 192 PY 1996 PD JUL VL 6 IS 3 GA VQ380 UT ISI:A1996VQ38000001 ER PT J AU Ziervogel, G Calder, R TI Climate variability and rural livelihoods: assessing the impact of seasonal climate forecasts in Lesotho SO AREA LA English DT Article C1 Stockholm Environm Inst, Oxford Off, Oxford OX1 1QT, England. RP Ziervogel, G, Stockholm Environm Inst, Oxford Off, 10B Littlegate St, Oxford OX1 1QT, England. AB Climate variability acutely affects rural livelihoods and agricultural productivity, yet it is just one of many stresses that vulnerable rural households have to cope with. A livelihood approach is used to assess the potential role that seasonal climate forecasts might play in increasing adaptive capacity in response to climate variability, using Lesotho as a case study. An examination of the assets and strategies that rural households employ enables a holistic assessment of the impact seasonal forecasts could have on rural livelihoods. This research thereby bridges macro-level variability with local-level impacts and adaptation to provide insight into the dynamics of forecast use and impact among vulnerable groups. CR *CARE S AFR, 1999, HOUS LIV ASS HOUS LI *CVAP, 2000, MAST CLIM COMP *IPCC, 2001, CLIM CHANG 2001 SYNT *LNVAC, 2002, LES EM FOOD SEC ASS *SADC FANR VULN AS, 2003, ID IMP HIV AIDS FOOD AGRAWALA S, 2001, SCI TECHNOL HUM VAL, V26, P454 ARCHER ERM, 2003, B AM METEOROLOGI NOV BASHER R, 2001, INT WORKSH 16 20 OCT BEZUIDENHOUT CN, 2001, WORKSH S AFR SUG TEC BLAIKIE PM, 1994, RISK NATURAL HAZARDS, V1, P1 BLENCH R, 1999, 47 OV DEV I BOHLE HG, 1994, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V4, P37 BOHN L, 2003, COPING CLIMATE VARIA, P97 BROAD K, 2002, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V54, P415 CALDER R, 2000, TEAM PROJECT MONITOR CARNEY D, 1998, APPROACHES SUSTAINAB CHAKELA QK, 1999, STATE ENV LESOTHO 19 CHAMBERS R, 1994, WORLD DEV, V22, P1253 CLEAVER F, 2001, PARTICIPATION NEW TY, P36 CRUSH J, 2001, J S AFR STUD, V27, P5 ELLIS F, 2000, RURAL LIVELIHOODS DI FRANCIS E, 2000, MAKING LIVING CHANGI GAY J, 2000, POVERTY LIVELIHOODS GODDARD L, 2001, INT J CLIMATOL, V21, P1111 HAGMANN J, 1999, 94 AGREN ODI HAMMER GL, 2000, APPL SEASONAL CLIMAT, V21 HUDSON J, 2003, COPING CLIMATE VARIA KELLY PM, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V47, P325 KLOPPER E, 1999, WATER SA, V25, P311 MARSHALL GR, 1996, AUST J AGR ECON, V40, P211 MASON SJ, 1996, WATER SA, V22, P203 MOCHEBELELE MT, 2000, WORLD DEV, V28, P143 MOHASI M, 1999, LAND LIVELIHOODS SO MURPHY SJ, 2001, NAT HAZARDS, V23, P171 NELSON N, 1995, POWER PARTICIPATORY OBRIEN KL, 2000, 200003 CICERO U OSL OBRIEN KL, 2003, COPING CLIMATE VARIA, P197 ORLOVE B, 1999, 993 U CAL I INT STUD PALMER TN, 1994, Q J ROY METEOR SOC, V120, P755 PATT A, 2001, DECISION POLICY, V6, P105 PATT A, 2002, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V12, P185 PESHOANE LA, 2000, LES MET SERV NAT SEA PFAFF A, 1999, NATURE, V397, P645 PHILLIPS J, 2001, AM SOC AGRONOMY SPEC, V63, P87 PLANT S, 2000, APPL SEASONAL CLIMAT, P23 PULWARTY RS, 1997, B AM METEOROL SOC, V78, P381 RAYNER S, 1998, HUMAN CHOICE CLIMATE, V1 RONCOLI C, 2000, OPPORTUNITIES CONSTR SCOONES I, 1996, HAZARDS OPPORTUNITIE SIVAKUMAR MVK, 2000, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V103, P11 SMIT B, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P223 SMITH JB, 2001, THESIS UWITWATERSRAN STERN P, 1999, MAKING CLIMATE FOREC TURNER S, 2001, LIVELIHOODS LESOTHO VOGEL C, 2000, S AFRICAN GEOGRAPHIC, V82, P107 WALKER S, 2001, ASSESSMENT COMMUNICA WASHINGTON R, 1999, GEOGR J 3, V165, P255 WHITESIDE M, 1998, 36 ODI YOHE GW, 2002, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V12, P25 ZIERVOGEL G, IN PRESS CLIMATIC CH ZIERVOGEL G, IN PRESS GEOGRAPHICA ZIERVOGEL G, 2001, BAS VILL OP M GLOB E ZUBAIR L, 2001, IND PER COUNTR OP M NR 63 TC 3 J9 AREA BP 403 EP 417 PY 2003 PD DEC VL 35 IS 4 GA 755AN UT ISI:000187365800007 ER PT J AU Lehner, B Czisch, G Vassolo, S TI The impact of global change on the hydropower potential of Europe: a model-based analysis SO ENERGY POLICY LA English DT Article C1 Univ Gesamthsch Kassel, Ctr Environm Syst Res, D-34109 Kassel, Germany. Univ Kassel, Inst Solare Energieversorgungstech, D-34119 Kassel, Germany. RP Lehner, B, World Wildlife Fund US, Conservat Sci Program, 1250 24th St,NW, Washington, DC 20037 USA. AB This study presents a model-based approach for analyzing the possible effects of global change on Europe's hydropower potential at a country scale. By comparing current conditions of climate and water use with future scenarios, an overview is provided of today's potential for hydroelectricity generation and its mid- and long-term prospects. The application of the global water model WaterGAP for discharge calculations allows for an integrated assessment, taking both climate and socioeconomic changes into account. This study comprises two key parts: First, the 'gross' hydropower potential is analyzed, in order to outline the general distribution and trends in hydropower capabilities across Europe. Then, the assessment focuses on the 'developed' hydropower potential of existing hydropower plants, in order to allow for a more realistic picture of present and future electricity production for the second part, a new data set has been developed which geo-references 5991 European hydropower stations and distinguishes them into run-of-river and reservoir stations. The results of this study present strong indications that, following moderate climate and global change scenario assumptions, severe future alterations in discharge regimes have to be expected, leading to unstable regional trends in hydropower potentials with reductions of 25% and more for southern and southeastern European countries. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *EEA, 1999, 2 EEA *EIA, 1999, INT EN ANN 1999 EL *EIA, 2000, INT EN OUTL 2000 *EIA, 2001, INT EN ANN 2001 CARB *ESRI, 1998, ARCATLAS *EU, 2000, 1999 ANN EN REV EN E *EUR, 1997, COST HYDR UN EL IND *EUR, 1997, HYDR EN VECT PROGR D *EUR, 1997, STUD IMP HARN HYDR R *GRDC, 1999, LONG TERM MEAN MONTH *IEA, 1999, KEY WORLD EN STAT *IPCC, 1992, CLIM CHANG 1992 SUPP *IPCC, 2000, SPEC REP EM SCEN INT *IPCC, 2001, 3 ASS REP CLIM CHANG MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 *NIMA, 2001, DAT FOR GEOGR FEAT N *NORDEL, 2000, STAT 1999 *UCTE, 1999, LANGFR ENTW ABFL UCP *UCTE, 2000, UCPTE STAT YB 1999 *UCTE, 2001, UCTE STAT YB 2000 *UDI, 2000, WORLD EL POW PLANTS *UNIPEDE, 1998, EUROPROG 1998 PROGR *USGS, 2000, HYDROIK EL DER DAT *WORLS COMM DAMS, 2000, DAMS DEV NEW FRAM DE ALCAMO J, 1998, GLOBAL CHAMGE SCENAR ALCAMO J, 2003, HYDROLOG SCI J, V48, P317 ALCAMO J, 2003, HYDROLOG SCI J, V48, P339 ARNEIL NW, 2000, EV5VCT93O293 ARNELL NW, 1999, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V9, P5 DOLL P, 2002, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V54, P269 DOLL P, 2002, J HYDROL, V258, P214 DOLL P, 2003, J HYDROL, V270, P105 FEIX O, 2000, COMMUNICATION GORDON C, 2000, CLIM DYNAM, V16, P147 HENRI S, 2002, GENES IMMUN, V3, P1 HULME M, 2001, CLIMATE RES, V17, P145 LOVSETH J, 1995, RENEW ENERG, V6, P207 NEW M, 2000, J CLIMATE, V13, P2217 PARRY ML, 2000, EUROPE ACACIA PROJEC ROCKNER E, 1999, J CLIMATE, V12, P3004 VOIGTLANDER P, 1999, REGENERATIVER STROM, P15 WATSON RT, 1998, REGIONAL IMPACTS CLI, V1, P1 NR 42 TC 0 J9 ENERG POLICY BP 839 EP 855 PY 2005 PD MAY VL 33 IS 7 GA 891QV UT ISI:000226596500002 ER PT J AU Proctor, JD TI The meaning of global environmental change - Retheorizing culture in human dimensions research SO GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS LA English DT Article C1 Univ Calif Santa Barbara, Dept Geog, Santa Barbara, CA 93106 USA. RP Proctor, JD, Univ Calif Santa Barbara, Dept Geog, 3611 Ellison Hall, Santa Barbara, CA 93106 USA. AB Culture is one of the most complex human dimensions of global environmental change; it is thus perhaps understandably the least well theorized. The objective of this paper is to sketch a conceptual framework for the role of culture in global environmental change in order to support the kinds of research necessary to shed light on this significant though elusive factor. I note limitations in how culture is conceptualized in current human dimensions research, and offer a retheorized notion of culture as a pervasive dimension of meaning in all social processes associated with environmental change, concluding with observations regarding research opportunities. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. 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London Sch Hyg & Trop Med, London WC1, England. RP van Lieshout, M, Univ Maastricht, Int Ctr Integrat Studies, Maastricht, Netherlands. AB The distribution and seasonal transmission of malaria is affected by climate, as both vector and parasite are sensitive to temperature. A global model of malaria transmission has been developed to estimate the potential impact of climate change on seasonal transmission and populations at risk of the disease (MIASMA v.2.2). "Population at risk" is defined as the population living in areas where climate conditions are suitable for malaria transmission. This assessment describes model simulations driven by the latest scenarios from the IPCC. The climate scenarios were derived from the Hadley Centre model HadCM3 runs with four SRES emissions scenarios: A1FI, A2, B1 and B2. The additional population at risk was determined under each of the SIZES population scenarios by downscaling national estimates to the 0.5 x 0.5degrees scale grid and re-aggregating by region. Additional population at risk due to climate change are projected in East Africa, central Asia, China and areas around the southern limit of the distribution in South America. Decreases in the transmission season are indicated in many areas where reductions in precipitation are projected by the Hadley Centre model, such as the Amazon and in Central America. The outcomes of the malaria model are sensitive to (1) spatial distribution of precipitation projections and (2) population growth in those areas where there is new risk due to climate change. This paper describes a new method for describing vulnerability to the potential impacts of climate change. Countries were classified according to their current vulnerability and malaria control status using expert judgement. This vulnerability incorporates both socio-economic status, as a measure for adaptive capacity, and climate as malaria at the fringes of its climate-determined distribution is easier to control than malaria in tropical endemic regions. Thus, current malaria control status is used as an indicator of adaptive capacity. For those countries that currently have a limited capacity to control the disease, the model estimates additional populations at risk by 2080s in the range of 90 in (A1FI) to 200 in (B2b). The greatest impact under B2 reflects population growth in risk areas in Eurasia and Africa. Climate-induced changes in the potential distribution of malaria is projected in the poor and vulnerable regions of the world. However, climate change is not likely to affect malaria transmission in the poorest countries where the climate is already highly favourable for transmission. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 *IPCC, 2001, EM SCEN SPEC REP WOR *MARA, 1998, 1 MARA ARMA *WHO, 2001, MAL EARL WARN SYST C ARNELL NW, 2003, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V14, P3 BRADLEY DJ, 1998, NEW RESURGENT INFECT, P1 BRYAN JH, 1996, MED J AUSTRALIA, V164, P345 CASMAN EA, 2000, IMPORTANCE CONTEXT D COX J, 2002, CONTEXTUAL DETERMINA, P167 CRAIG MH, 1999, PARASITOL TODAY, V15, P104 DOBSON MJ, 1994, PARASSITOLOGIA, V36, P35 EZZATI M, 2002, LANCET, V360, P1347 GILLIES MT, 1987, SUPPLEMENT ANOPHELIN, P55 HALES S, 2002, LANCET, V360, P830 HULME M, 1999, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHA S, V9, S3 JETTEN TH, 1996, J MED ENTOMOL, V33, P361 KOVATS RS, 2001, PHILOS T ROY SOC B, V356, P1057 KOVATS RS, 2003, CLIM CHANG HUM HLTH LINDSAY SW, 1998, B WORLD HEALTH ORGAN, V76, P33 LINES J, 1994, HEALTH POLICY PLANN, V9, P113 MACDONALD G, 1957, EPIDEMIOLOGY CONTROL MARTENS P, 1999, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHA S, V9, S89 MARTENS P, 2001, INTEGRATED ASSESSMEN, V2, P171 MARTENS P, 2001, TRANSITIONS GLOBALIS, P61 MARTENS P, 2002, FUTURES, V34, P635 MARTENS WJ, 1998, HLTH CLIMATE CHANGE MARTENS WJM, 1997, B WORLD HEALTH ORGAN, V75, P583 MARTIN PH, 1995, AMBIO, V24, P200 MATSUOKA Y, 1994, J GLOBAL ENV ENG, V1, P1 MCMICHAEL AJ, 2000, CLIMATE CHANGE HUMAN MCMICHAEL AJ, 2004, IN PRESS COMP QUANTI NAJERA JA, 1994, PARASSITOLOGIA, V36, P17 NEW M, 1999, J CLIMATE, V12, P829 NICHOLLS RJ, 2003, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V14, P69 ORESKES N, 1994, SCIENCE, V263, P641 PATZ JA, 1996, CLIMATE RES, V6, P113 REITER P, 2000, EMERG INFECT DIS, V6, P1 ROGERS DJ, 1996, CLIAMTE CHANGE S AFR ROGERS DJ, 2000, SCIENCE, V289, P1763 SACHS J, 2001, MACROECONOMICS HLTH SUTHERST RW, 1998, INT J PARASITOL, V28, P935 SUTHERST RW, 1998, PARASITOL TODAY, V14, P297 TOL RSJ, 2001, INTEGRATED ASSESSMEN, V2, P173 NR 43 TC 0 J9 GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANGE BP 87 EP 99 PY 2004 PD APR VL 14 IS 1 GA 776TX UT ISI:000189135000007 ER PT J AU Bradley, MP Smith, E TI Using science to assess environmental vulnerabilities SO ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING AND ASSESSMENT LA English DT Article C1 US EPA, Off Res & Dev, Ctr Environm Sci, Ft George G Meade, MD 20755 USA. US EPA, Natl Exposure Res Lab, Res Triangle Pk, NC USA. RP Bradley, MP, US EPA, Off Res & Dev, Ctr Environm Sci, 701 Mapes Rd, Ft George G Meade, MD 20755 USA. AB Beginning in 1995, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (U.S. EPA), Office of Research and Development has focused much of its ecological research in the Mid-Atlantic as part of the Mid-Atlantic Integrated Assessment (MAIA). The goal of MAIA is to improve the assessability of scientific information in environmental decision-making. Following the Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program (EMAP) whose goal is to guide monitoring that effectively reflects Current ecosystem condition and trends, MAIA's second, current, phase of research under the Regional Vulnerability Assessment (ReVA) program is designed to target risk management activities using available data and models. The papers presented here are from a conference held in May 2003 that presented results of research in this second phase of MAIA. The conference was organized into the following topics: 1. Assessing Current Impacts and Vulnerabilities 2. Forecasting Environmental Condition and Vulnerabilities 3. Developing Management Strategies to Optimize the Future, and 4. Assessing and Responding to Environmental Vulnerability. CR *US EPA, 1998, EPA600R98147 OFF RES *US EPA, 1998, EPA630R95002F OFF RE *US EPA, 2001, EPA903F01003 *US EPA, 2003, EPA620R02003 OFF RES BOWARD D, 1999, EPA903R99023 OFF RES BRADLEY MP, 2000, ENVIRON MONIT ASSESS, V63, P1 CAMPBELL D, 2004, ENVIRON MONIT ASSESS, V94, P217 CLAGGETT PR, 2004, ENVIRON MONIT ASSESS, V94, P129 JACKSON LE, 2004, ENVIRON MONIT ASSESS, V94, P231 JONES BK, 1997, EPA600R97130 OFF RES KEPNER WG, 2004, ENVIRON MONIT ASSESS, V94, P115 LAWLER JJ, 2004, ENVIRON MONIT ASSESS, V94, P85 LOCANTORE NW, 2004, ENVIRON MONIT ASSESS, V94, P249 MOSS DA, 2002, ALL ELSE FAILS GOVT RIDGLEY MA, 1992, WATER RESOUR BULL, V28, P1095 SAATY TL, 1982, LOGIC PRIORITIES APP SMITH ER, 2002, EPA600R01008 OFF RES NR 17 TC 3 J9 ENVIRON MONIT ASSESS BP 1 EP 7 PY 2004 PD JUN VL 94 IS 1-3 GA 775UE UT ISI:000189078400001 ER PT J AU Pandey, DN TI Sustainability science for tropical forests SO CONSERVATION ECOLOGY LA English DT Editorial Material C1 Indian Inst Forest Management, IUFRO Res Grp, Indian Forest Serv, Bhopal 462003, India. RP Pandey, DN, Indian Inst Forest Management, IUFRO Res Grp, Indian Forest Serv, 6-19-00 Ethnoforestry, Bhopal 462003, India. CR AYENSU E, 1999, SCIENCE, V286, P685 BAWA KS, 1997, NATURE, V386, P562 BOND WJ, 2001, TRENDS ECOL EVOL, V16, P45 BOWLES IA, 1998, SCIENCE, V280, P1899 BRUNA EM, 1999, NATURE, V402, P139 CHAZDON RL, 1998, SCIENCE, V281, P1295 COX PA, 2000, SCIENCE, V287, P44 ELMQVIST T, 2001, CONSERV ECOL, V5, P1 FOREST CE, 2002, SCIENCE, V295, P113 HAMILTON MB, 1999, NATURE, V401, P129 JANZEN D, 1998, SCIENCE, V279, P1312 KATES RW, 2001, SCIENCE, V292, P641 KREMEN C, 2000, SCIENCE, V288, P1828 LAURANCE WF, 2000, NATURE, V404, P836 LAWTON RO, 2001, SCIENCE, V294, P584 LOREAU M, 2001, SCIENCE, V294, P804 NOBLE IR, 1997, SCIENCE, V277, P522 PANDEY DN, 2001, SCIENCE, V293, P1763 PHILLIPS OL, 1998, SCIENCE, V282, P439 SALA OE, 2000, SCIENCE, V287, P17708 SCHIMEL DS, 2001, NATURE, V414, P169 NR 21 TC 2 J9 CONSERV ECOL BP 1 PY 2002 PD JUN VL 6 IS 1 GA 591QW UT ISI:000177892600032 ER PT J AU Arnell, NW Delaney, EK TI Adapting to climate change: Public water supply in England and Wales SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 Univ Southampton, Sch Geog, Southampton SO17 1BJ, Hants, England. Univ Southampton, Tyndall Ctr Climate Change Res, Southampton SO17 1BJ, Hants, England. RP Arnell, NW, Univ Southampton, Sch Geog, Southampton SO17 1BJ, Hants, England. AB This paper describes an assessment of the ways in which water supply companies in England and Wales are adapting to climate change, evaluated in the context of a model of the adaptation process. The four components of the model are (i) awareness of and concern about the potential impacts of climate change, (ii) adaptation strategy, (iii) the concept of an adaptation space from which options are selected, and (iv) the notion that three groups of factors influence awareness, strategy and option selection: susceptibility to change, internal characteristics of the organisation, and regulatory and market context. Public water supply in England and Wales is provided by private sector companies, subject to environmental and economic regulation. Hydrological simulations suggest that climate change has the potential to reduce the reliability of supply sources over the next few decades. The industry in December 2004 completed a review of investment requirements over the next five years. Awareness of climate change is high in the water industry, but by developing assessment procedures and incorporating them into the investment review the regulators forced companies to consider explicitly the potential impacts of climate change in a consistent and rigorous manner. These analyses combined climate change with other pressures on water resources, and in practice companies did not attribute specific investment decisions or proposals to climate change or indeed any other individual drivers. The broad strategy adopted by all water supply companies - to maintain standards of service - is determined by regulatory controls and market considerations, but the degree of concern about the impacts of climate change and precise adaptation options necessary to address supply-demand imbalances varied between water supply companies, reflecting local geographic conditions. The water supply companies and regulators have different perspectives on the relative merits of supply-side and demand-side measures, reflecting different organisational priorities. The 2004 investment review determined that no specific actions were necessary to deal with future climate change, but that measures set in place - in terms of methodologies and investment in investigations into specific resource developments - provided a sound foundation for more specific actions in the next investment review in five years time. The paper concludes by summarising the factors assisting and constraining adaptation over the next few decades. 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Natl Inst Amazonian Res, Biol Dynam Forest Fragments Project, BR-69011970 Manaus, Amazonas, Brazil. Louisiana State Univ, Dept Bot, Baton Rouge, LA 70803 USA. RP Laurance, WF, Smithsonian Trop Res Inst, Apartado 2072, Balboa, Panama. AB The Amazon basin is experiencing rapid forest loss and fragmentation, Fragmented forests are more prone than intact forests to periodic damage from El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) droughts, which cause elevated tree mortality, increased litterfall, shifts in plant phenology, and other ecological changes, especially near forest edges, Moreover, positive feedbacks among forest loss, fragmentation, fire, and regional climate change appear increasingly likely Deforestation reduces plant evapotranspiration, which in turn constrains regional rainfall, increasing the vulnerability of forests to fire. Forest fragments are especially vulnerable because they have dry, fire-prone edges, are logged frequently, and often are adjoined by cattle pastures, which are burned regularly. The net result is that there may be a critical "deforestation threshold" above which Amazonian rainforests can no longer be sustained, particularly in relatively seasonal areas of the basin. Global warming could exacerbate this problem if it promotes drier climates or stronger ENSO droughts. Synergisms among many simultaneous environmental changes are posing unprecedented threats to Amazonian forests. 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RP NaughtonTreves, L, Univ Wisconsin, Madison, WI 53706 USA. AB Subsistence farmers near Kibale National Park, Uganda, fear and resent many wildlife species. In this article I compare records of crop damage by wildlife and livestock with local complaints about the worst animals and the most vulnerable crops. I discuss the concordance and discrepancies in complaints versus actual damage in light of physical parameters of risk and of social factors that shape perceptions and vulnerabilities. Crop losses were greatest at the edge of the forest, where immigrants are disproportionately represented. State proprietorship of wildlife amplifies local vulnerability and constrains traditional coping strategies, such as hunting. 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RP Wall, E, Univ Guelph, Fac Environm Sci, Blackwood Hall,Room 202, Guelph, ON N1G 2W1, Canada. AB Agricultural activity has always included,adaptation to a number of diverse stresses and opportunities-elements that continue influencing developments in the agri-food sector. Climate and weather conditions are a good example of factors that require on-going adaptation. With climate change they take on even more significance. Based oil data from Canadian producers, this article identifies several climate and weather risk adaptation strategies currently in use and notes their close links to sustainable agriculture practices. The article concludes that the mutually supportive relationship between sustainable agriculture and climate change adaptation could be used to justify more government support for sustainable agriculture policies and programs. CR *C CIARN AGR, 2003, C CIARN AGR C CIARN *C CIARN AGR, 2004, C CIARN AGR M FEBR 2 *CCME, 2003, DROGUHT CLIM NAT PEO *NAT RES CAN, 2002, CLIM CHANG IMP AD CA *SSCAF, 2003, CLIM CHANG WE AR RIS BRYANT CR, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P181 CHIOTTI QP, 1997, AGR RESTRUCTURING SU, P201 COSTANZA R, 1992, ECOSYSTEM HLTH NEW G EASTERLING WE, 1996, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V80, P1 GOSS D, 2003, CANADIAN GEOGRAP MAY, P40 IKERD J, 1997, UNDERSTANDING MANAGI LIGHTFOOT C, 2001, J SUSTAIN AGR, V19, P9 LOBELL DB, 2003, SCIENCE, V299, P1032 LUO QY, 1999, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V43, P729 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 MENDELSOHN R, 1994, AM ECON REV, V84, P753 MILESTAD R, 2003, J SUSTAIN AGR, V22, P81 PIELKE R, 2003, PERSPECTIVES WIN, P27 REILLY JJG, 2001, AGR POTENTIAL CONSEQ REINSBOROUGH MJ, 2003, CAN J ECON, V36, P21 ROSENZWEIG C, 2000, CLIMATE CHANGE US AG SHABBAR A, 2004, LONG RANG CLIM IMP F SMIT B, 1988, J ENVIRON QUAL, V17, P519 SMIT B, 1991, CHANGING CLIMATE REL, P33 SMIT B, 1994, CAN J REGIONAL SCI, V16, P499 SMIT B, 2000, CLIMATE CHANGE COMMU SMIT B, 2002, MITIGATION ADAPTATIO, V7, P85 SMITH B, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P223 WALL E, 2004, CANADIAN AGR FOOD SE WANDEL J, 2000, AGR ENV SUSTAINABILI, P30 WEBER M, 2003, CANADIAN PUBLIC JUN, P163 WILSON A, 1995, AGR SUSTAINABLE DEV, P108 NR 32 TC 1 J9 J SUSTAINABLE AGR BP 113 EP 123 PY 2005 VL 27 IS 1 GA 997XM UT ISI:000234282200006 ER PT J AU Scott, D Jones, B Konopek, J TI Implications of climate and environmental change for nature-based tourism in the Canadian Rocky Mountains: A case study of Waterton Lakes National Park SO TOURISM MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article C1 Univ Waterloo, Fac Environm Studies, Canada Res Chair Global Change & Tourism, Waterloo, ON N2L 3G1, Canada. RP Scott, D, Univ Waterloo, Fac Environm Studies, Canada Res Chair Global Change & Tourism, 200 Univ Ave W, Waterloo, ON N2L 3G1, Canada. AB In western North America, Rocky Mountain national parks represent a major resource for nature-based tourism. This paper examines how climate change may influence park tourism in the Rocky Mountain region by focusing on both the direct and indirect impacts of climate change for visitation to Waterton Lakes National Park (WLNP) (Alberta, Canada). A statistical model of monthly visitation and climate was developed to examine the direct impact of climate change on visitation. The model projected that annual visitation would increase between 6% and 10% in the 2020s and between 10% and 36% in the 2050s. To explore how climate-induced environmental change could also indirectly affect visitation, a visitor survey was used (N = 425). The environmental change scenarios for the 2020s and 2050s were found to have minimal influence on visitation, however the environmental change scenario for the 2080s (under the warmest climate change conditions) was found to have a negative effect on visitation, as 19% of respondents indicated they would not visit the park and 37% stated they would visit the park less often. The contrasting result of the two analyses for the longer-term impact of climate change was a key finding. The management implications of these findings and methodological challenges associate with climate change impact assessment for tourism are also discussed. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *ALB EC DEV, 2000, EC IMP VIS ALB ROCK MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 *NAT PARKS SERV, 2005, VIS STAT *PARKS CAN, 2003, KOOT NAT PARK CAN FI *PARKS CAN, 2004, NAT PARK VIS ATT MON *PARKS CAN, 2005, WAT LAK NAT PARK CAN BARTLEIN PJ, 1997, CONSERV BIOL, V11, P782 BRUGMAN M, 1997, CANADA COUNTRY STUDY EAGLES PFJ, 2000, G WRIGHT FORUM, V17, P62 ELSASSER H, 2002, CLIMATE RES, V20, P253 FLANNIGAN M, 2001, CAN J FOREST RES, V31, P854 FRANKE M, 2000, YELLOWSTONE GLOW LES GOURLEY B, 1997, YELLOWSTONE NET NEWS, V1 HALL MHP, 2003, BIOSCIENCE, V53, P131 HANNAH L, 2002, CONSERV BIOL, V16, P264 HARDING L, 1997, RESPONDING CLIMATE C JONES B, 2006, IN PRESS J PARK RECR, V24 KELEHER CJ, 1996, T AM FISH SOC, V125, P1 LI C, 2000, CAN J FOREST RES, V30, P1905 MAGNUSON J, 1998, REGIONAL CLIMATE CHA MANN J, 2003, DAILY INTERLAKE NEWS MCCARTY JP, 2001, CONSERV BIOL, V15, P320 MCDONALD K, 1996, CONSERV BIOL, V6, P409 NEWHOUSE E, 2003, GREAT FALLS TRIBUNE RHEMTULLA JM, 2002, CAN J FOREST RES, V32, P2010 RICHARDSON RB, 2004, ECOL ECON, V50, P83 SCOTT D, 2000, CLIMATE CHANGE CANAD SCOTT D, 2002, GLOBAL ECOL BIOGEOGR, V11, P475 SCOTT D, 2003, P 1 INT C CLIM CHANG SCOTT D, 2005, FOREST CHRON, V81, P696 SCOTT D, 2005, TOURISM GLOBAL ENV C, P54 STOCKS BJ, 1998, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V38, P1 WALL G, 1992, TOURISM ALTERNATIVES WEBER MG, 1997, ENV REV, V5, P145 WINKS Q, 2003, JASPER BOOSTER NR 35 TC 0 J9 TOURISM MANAGE BP 570 EP 579 PY 2007 PD APR VL 28 IS 2 GA 139AX UT ISI:000244405500019 ER PT J AU Blackstock, KL Kirk, EA Reeves, AD TI Sociology, science and sustainability: Developing relationships in Scotland SO SOCIOLOGICAL RESEARCH ONLINE LA English DT Article C1 Macaulay Inst, Socio Econ Res Programme, Dundee, Scotland. Univ Dundee, Dept Law, Dundee DD1 4HN, Scotland. Univ Dundee, Dept Geog, Dundee DD1 4HN, Scotland. RP Blackstock, KL, Macaulay Inst, Socio Econ Res Programme, Dundee, Scotland. AB This paper considers the application of the sociological imagination during the analysis of data collected during an ethnographic study of an environmental regulator, the Scottish Environment Protection Agency ( SEPA). SEPA is tasked with implementing the European Water Framework Directive ( WFD) in Scotland, which will radically alter the regulation of water use. Applying a sociological imagination allowed the researcher to advocate for a more interdisciplinary and equitable understanding of sustainable water use when feeding back initial research results at the end of the data collection period. The researchers introduced socialised definitions of the environment, which linked social justice and ecological concerns. These insights provided a challenge to the traditional bio-physical science focus of the organisational participants, for whom sustainability is a relatively new addition to their duties. The paper concludes by discussing the importance of developing these interdisciplinary relationships in the future. 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A critical review of the application of institutional theories to the study of environmental change SO ECOLOGY AND SOCIETY LA English DT Article C1 Univ E Anglia, Sch Environm Sci, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. RP Hotimsky, S, Univ E Anglia, Sch Environm Sci, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. AB The impact of new institutionalism on the study of human environment interactions has been meaningful. Institutional perspectives have further shaped and modified the field problems of common pool resources, environmental hazards, and risk and environmental management. Given the relative potential of institutional theories to increase the comprehension of the various dimensions of human environmental interactions, it has become increasingly important to attempt to consolidate different interpretations of what institutions are, and how they mediate and constrain possibilities for more successful environmental outcomes. This article focuses primarily on contending ontological perspectives on institutions and institutional change. It argues that what should guide the application of institutional theories in practical research regarding environmental change is the ontological dimension, and that the focus of research should be on uncovering the underlying dynamics of institutional change. In doing so, it calls for a methodological pluralism in the investigation of the role institutions play in driving/managing for environmental change. 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Univ Melbourne, Sch Forestry, Melbourne, Vic 3010, Australia. Bournemouth Univ, Sch Conservat Sci, Poole BH12 5BB, Dorset, England. Univ Austral Chile, Fac Ciencias Forestales, Valdivia, Chile. Univ Melbourne, Sch Bot, Melbourne, Vic 3010, Australia. RP Wilson, K, Univ Queensland, Ctr Ecol, Brisbane, Qld 4072, Australia. AB Areas of the landscape that are priorities for conservation should be those that are both vulnerable to threatening processes and that if lost or degraded, will result in conservation targets being compromised. While much attention is directed towards understanding the patterns of biodiversity, much less is given to determining the areas of the landscape most vulnerable to threats. We assessed the relative vulnerability of remaining areas of native forest to conversion to plantations in the ecologically significant temperate rainforest region of south central Chile. The area of the study region is 4.2 million ha and the extent of plantations is approximately 200000 ha. First, the spatial distribution of native forest conversion to plantations was determined. The variables related to the spatial distribution of this threatening process were identified through the development of a classification tree and the generation of a multivariate. spatially explicit, statistical model. The model of native forest conversion explained 43% of the deviance and the discrimination ability of the model was high. Predictions were made of where native forest conversion is likely to occur in the future. Due to patterns of climate, topography, soils and proximity to infrastructure and towns, remaining forest areas differ in their relative risk of being converted to plantations. Another factor that may increase the vulnerability of remaining native forest in a subset of the study region is the proposed construction of a highway. We found that 90% of the area of existing plantations within this region is within 2.5 km of roads. When the predictions of native forest conversion were recalculated accounting for the construction of this highway, it was found that: approximately 27000 ha of native forest had an increased probability of conversion. The areas of native forest identified to be vulnerable to conversion are outside of the existing reserve network. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All tights reserved. 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RP Morrow, BH, Florida Int Univ, Int Hurricane Ctr, Miami, FL 33199 USA. AB Disaster vulnerability is socially constructed, i.e., it arises out of the social and economic circumstances of everyday living, Most often discussed from the perspective of developing nations, this article extends the argument using American demographic trends. Examples from recent disasters, Hurricane Andrew in particular, illustrate how certain categories of people, such as the poor the elderly, women-headed households and recent residents, are at greater risk throughout the disaster response process. Knowledge of where these groups are concentrated within communities and the general nature of their circumstances is an important step towards effective emergency management Emergency planners, policy-makers and responding organisations are encouraged to identify and locate high-risk sectors on Community Vulnerability Maps, integrating this information into GIS systems where feasible. Effective disaster management calls for aggressively involving these neighbourhoods and groups at all levels of planning and response, as well as mitigation efforts that address the root causes of vulnerability. 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P94 PIELKE RA, 1997, HURRICANES CLIMATE S PONIATOWSKA E, 1988, NOTHING NOBODY VOICE PROVENZO FE, 1995, HURRICANE ANDREW PUB PULWARTY RS, 1997, HURRICANES CLIMATE S QUARANTELLI EL, 1987, INT J MASS EMERGENCI, V5, P7 QUARANTELLI EL, 1995, INT J MASS EMERGENCI, V13, P221 RESKIN B, 1994, WOMEN MEN WORK RIVERS JPW, 1982, DISASTERS, V6, P256 RUSSELL DW, 1991, PSYCHOL AGING, V6, P190 SAPIR DG, 1993, WORLD HLTH STAT Q, V46, P227 SHANNON MP, 1994, J AM ACAD CHILD PSY, V33, P80 TIERNEY KJ, 1988, DISABLED PERSONS EAR TIERNEY KJ, 1989, INT J MASS EMERGENCI, V7, P367 TOBIN GA, 1992, NATURAL HAZARDS ELDE TURNER RH, 1981, COMMUNITY RESPONSE E VANDERWIJK D, 1997, HUMAN SIDE CONFLICT VARLEY A, 1994, DISASTERS DEV ENV WALKER B, 1994, WOMEN EMERGENCIES WATTS MJ, 1983, INTERPRETATIONS CALA WILSON J, 1998, GENDERED TERRAIN DIS NR 121 TC 15 J9 DISASTERS BP 1 EP 18 PY 1999 PD MAR VL 23 IS 1 GA 175MU UT ISI:000079098900001 ER PT J AU Lal, M Harasawa, H Takahashi, K TI Future climate change and its impacts over small island states SO CLIMATE RESEARCH LA English DT Article C1 Indian Inst Technol, Ctr Atmospher Sci, New Delhi 110016, India. Natl Inst Environm Studies, Ibaraki, Japan. RP Lal, M, Indian Inst Technol, Ctr Atmospher Sci, New Delhi 110016, India. AB This paper examines the response of the climate of Small Island States (SIS) to transient increases in anthropogenic radiative forcing due to increases in atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases and/or sulfate aerosols using the data generated in a set of numerical experiments performed with a range of coupled atmosphere-ocean global climate models. Five of the 7 models considered in our validation exercise are found to have fair skill as regards their ability to simulate the broad features of present-day observed surface climatological features over the SIS in the Indian Ocean, the Mediterranean Sea, the Atlantic Ocean and the Pacific Ocean. The transient experiments with these models, which include the time-varying future anthropogenic radiative forcings, have been used here to develop regional projections of future climate change. An area-averaged annual mean warming of ca 2degreesC or higher for the 2050s and ca 3degreesC or higher for the 2080s are projected for the SIS as a consequence of increases in atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases. In general, seasonal variations of the projected surface warming over the SIS are minimal. No significant change in diurnal temperature range is likely with an increase in surface temperatures. An increase in mean temperature would be accompanied by an increase in the frequency of extremely high temperatures. The aerosol forcing will only marginally reduce the surface warming. The models simulate only a marginal change (<10%) in annual mean rainfall over most of the SIS, During the northern hemisphere summer, however, rainfall is projected to decline (except over Pacific Ocean islands). An increase in daily rainfall intensity leading to more heavy rainfall events is also projected. The projected changes in temperature and rainfall could disrupt the terrestrial and marine ecosystems in most SIS. An integrated study of vulnerability assessment for SIS based on a better understanding of the precise magnitude of increase in surface air temperature and associated sea level rise is warranted for developing appropriate adaptation strategies. 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RP Dixit, A, NWCF, POB 2221, Kathmandu, Nepal. AB Responses to flooding in the Himalaya-Ganga region have conventionally been sought under the hierarchic mode using the strategy of control. Because it has not given due consideration to diverse contexts of the region and thereby the specific approaches that such context necessitate, the particular approach has not brought about security from flooding. Three responses are seen in the terrain of flood disaster. These are the hierarchic manager, individualistic innovator and the egalitarian social activist. The hierarchies define control as the solution to the problems of flood: this is the approach preferred by state agencies. At the individualistic level the sought strategy is flexibility to cope with the situation. The response by social activists is guided by egalitarian critiques of the hierarchic approach. Each pursues his/her own styles and continuously contests the policy terrain. This paper reviews the nature of flood disaster in the Himalaya-Ganga by focussing on plains Nepal. It argues that conventional approach has not been able to provide the security envisaged. The paper suggests that vulnerability of people in risk-prone areas must be addressed by enhancing resilience capacity. For this to happen the approach must be pluralistic that gives space to each management style with varying obligations at varying scales. CR 1993, FLOOD MITIGATION MUL, V3, P81 *BARH MUKT ABH, 1997, P 2 DEL C 5 6 APR NI *CBS, 1991, CENTR BUR STAT *CBS, 2000, CENTR BUR STAT *CSE, 1991, FLOODS FLOOD PLAINS *DPTC, 1994, ANN DIS REV *DWIDP, 2000, ANN DIS REV *ESP, 2001, PRO POOR GOV ASS NEP *HMG N MIN WAT RES, 1996, DISASTER REV *ITDG, 1994, DUR NIV *NIPP KOEI, 1994, MAST PLAN SED CONTR *UNCHS, 1981, SETTL PLANN DIS *WECS, 1987, ER SED NEP HIM ASS R *WORLD BANK, 1975, 833ANEP WORLD BANK P AHMAD QK, 2001, GANGA BRAHMAPUTRA ME BARI MF, 1995, BANGL DIS PREP FOR D BLAIKIE PM, 1994, RISK NATURAL HAZARDS, V1, P1 BRUNINJZEEL LA, 1989, 11 ICIMOD BURTON L, 1993, ENV HAZARD CARSON B, 1985, 1 ICIMOD CHAPMAN GP, 1995, WATER QUEST SUSTAINA CHHETRI MBP, 2001, MITIGATION MANAGEMEN CHITKARA SC, 1999, HIMGANGA, V1 DEOJA BB, 2000, J NEPAL GEOLOGICAL S, V22, P167 DHUNGEL H, 1996, THESIS U PENNSYLVANI DIXIT A, 1994, WAT NEPAL, V4, P74 DIXIT A, 1999, SEMIN 478 MALV SINGH DIXIT A, 2000, WATER FOOD RURAL DEV DIXIT A, 2001, RECONCEPTUALIZING FL DOUGLAS M, 1990, DAEDALUS, V119, P1 DWIBEDI SK, 2000, J NEPAL GEOLOGICAL S, V22 GILMORE DA, 1986, MOUNTAIN RES DEV, V7, P239 GOSWAMI DC, 1983, BRAHAMPUTRA RIVER AS GURUNG H, 1989, WATER NEPAL, V1, P3 GYAWALI D, 1994, WATER NEPAL, V4, P1 GYAWALI D, 1997, WATER NEPAL, V5, P5 GYAWALI D, 1998, WATER NEPAL, V6, P67 GYAWALI D, 1999, ECON POLIT WEEKLY, V34, P533 GYAWALI D, 2000, DOMESTIC CONFLICT CR GYAWALI D, 2001, FUTURES, V33, P689 GYAWALI D, 2001, KATHMANDU POST 0813 GYAWALI D, 2001, WATER NEPAL IVES JD, 1989, HIMALAYAN DILEMMA KARMACHARYA M, 1989, LANDSLIDES NEPAL PER MAHMOOD K, 1987, 71 WORLD BANK MASKREY A, 1989, DISASTER MITIGATION MISHRA DK, 1997, ECON POLIT WEEKLY, V32, P2206 MOENCH M, 1999, RETHINKING MOSAIC IN MOOL PK, 2001, INVENTORY GLACIERS G POKHAREL JC, 1988, PRASHASHAN, V51, P7 RANA BB, 2000, J NEPAL GEOLOGICAL S, V22, P563 RANA SJB, 1997, NATL ACTION PLAN DIS THAPA PJ, 1997, WATER NEPAL, V5, P35 TIANCHI L, 2001, LANDSLIDE HAZARD MIT UPRETY BN, 1994, UNPUB LANDSLIDE STUD VERGHESE BG, 1990, WATERS HOPE HIMALAY VOLK HR, 2000, J NEPAL GEOLOGICAL S, V22, P405 WU K, 1995, WATER QUEST SUSTAINA NR 58 TC 0 J9 NATURAL HAZARDS BP 155 EP 179 PY 2003 PD JAN VL 28 IS 1 GA 617JT UT ISI:000179359100008 ER PT J AU Tol, RSJ Bohn, M Downing, TE Guillerminet, ML Hizsnyik, E Kasperson, RE Lonsdale, K Mays, C Nicholls, RJ Olsthoorn, AA Pfeifle, G Poumadere, M Toth, FL Vafeidis, AT Van der Werff, PE Yetkiner, IH TI Adaptation to five metres of sea level rise SO JOURNAL OF RISK RESEARCH LA English DT Article C1 Univ Hamburg, ZMK, FNU, Res Unit Sustainabil & Global Change, D-20146 Hamburg, Germany. Ctr Marine & Atmoshper Sci, Hamburg, Germany. Vrije Univ Amsterdam, Inst Environm Studies, Amsterdam, Netherlands. Carnegie Mellon Univ, Pittsburgh, PA 15213 USA. Stockholm Environm Inst, Stockholm, Sweden. Stockholm Environm Inst, Oxford, England. Int Inst Appl Syst Anal, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria. Inst Symlog, Paris, France. Univ Southampton, Sch Civil & Environm Engn, Southampton SO9 5NH, Hants, England. Middlesex Univ, Flood Hazard Res Ctr, London N17 8HR, England. Univ Aegean, Dept Geogr, Lesvos, Greece. Izmir Univ Econ, Dept Econ, Balcova, Turkey. RP Tol, RSJ, Univ Hamburg, ZMK, FNU, Res Unit Sustainabil & Global Change, Bundesstr 55, D-20146 Hamburg, Germany. AB There is an unknown but probably small probability that the West-Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) will collapse because of anthropogenic climate change. A WAIS collapse could cause a 5-6 metre global sea level rise within centuries. In three case studies, we investigate the response of society to the most extreme yet not implausible scenario, a five-metre sea level rise within a century, starting in 2030. The case studies combine a series of interviews with experts and stakeholders with a gaming workshop. In the Rhone delta, the most likely option would be retreat, with economic losses, perhaps social losses, and maybe ecological gains. In the Thames estuary, the probable outcome is less clear, but would probably be a mix of protection, accommodation and retreat, with parts of the city centre turned into a Venice of London. A massive downstream barrier is an alternative response. In the Rhine delta (the Netherlands), the initial response would be protection, followed by retreat from the economically less important parts of the country and, probably, from Amsterdam Rotterdam metropolitan region as well. These impacts are large compared to other climate change impacts, but probably small compared to the impacts of the same scenario in other parts of the world. This suggests that the possibility of a anthropogenic-climate-change-induced WAIS collapse would strengthen the case for greenhouse gas emission reduction. CR *CIESIN COL U CIAT, 2004, GRIDD POP WORLD GPW *RIJKSW, 1986, UNPUB ZEESPIEGELRIJZ ALLEY RB, 1991, SCIENCE, V254, P959 ALLEY RB, 2003, SCIENCE, V299, P2005 ARNELL NW, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 BENTLEY CR, 1997, SCIENCE, V275, P1077 BERZ J, 2001, OUR PLANET, V1, P19 CUBASCH U, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 DAWSON RJ, 2006, IN PRESS INT J WATER GREENBLAT C, 1981, PRINCIPLES PRACTICES GREGORY JM, 2004, NATURE, V428, P616 GUILLERMINET ML, 2005, FNU79 HAMB U CTR MAR HAINES A, 1991, J PUBLIC HEALTH MED, V13, P69 KASPERSON RE, 2005, FNU73 HAMB U CTR MAR KELLER K, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V47, P17 KELLER K, 2004, J ENVIRON ECON MANAG, V48, P723 KERR RA, 1998, SCIENCE, V281, P499 KRUEGER RA, 1988, FOCUS GROUPS PRACTIC LAVERY S, 2005, PHILOS T ROY SOC A, V363, P1455 LINK PM, 2004, PORTUGUESE EC J, V3, P99 LONSDALE K, 2005, FNU77 HAMB U CTR MAR LOWE JA, 2006, AVOIDING DANGEROUS C, P29 LYTHE MB, 2001, J GEOPHYS RES-SOL EA, V106, P11335 MACAYEAL DR, 1992, NATURE, V359, P29 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 MERCER JH, 1978, NATURE, V271, P321 NICHOLLS RJ, 2005, FNU78 HAMB U CTR MAR OLSTHOORN AA, 2005, FNU75 HAMB U CTR MAR OPPENHEIMER M, 1998, NATURE, V393, P325 OPPENHEIMER M, 2004, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V64, P1 PARRY ML, 1990, CLIMAGE CHANGE WORLD POUMADERE M, 2005, FNU76 HAMB U CTR MAR RAHMSTORF S, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V46, P247 SCHILLER A, 1997, CLIM DYNAM, V13, P325 SCHNEIDER SH, 1980, ANNU REV ENERG ENV, V5, P107 SMALL C, 2003, J COASTAL RES, V19, P584 SMITH JB, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, P913 THOMAS RH, 1979, NATURE, V277, P355 TOL RSJ, 2004, FNU48 HAMB U CTR MAR TOTH FL, 1988, SIMULATION GAMES, V19, P235 TOTH FL, 1988, SIMULATION GAMES, V19, P256 TOTH FL, 2005, FNU74 HAMB U CTR MAR VAUGHAN DG, 2002, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V52, P65 VELLINGA M, 2002, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V54, P251 WOODROFFE CD, 2005, GLOBAL CHANGE IMPLIC NR 45 TC 0 J9 J RISK RES BP 467 EP 482 PY 2006 PD JUL VL 9 IS 5 GA 074MI UT ISI:000239816100003 ER PT J AU Ambrosi, P Hourcade, JC Hallegatte, S Lecocq, F Dumas, P Duong, MH TI Optimal control models and elicitation of attitudes towards climate damages SO ENVIRONMENTAL MODELING & ASSESSMENT LA English DT Article C1 CIRED, Jardin Trop, F-94736 Nogent Sur Marne, France. World Bank, Dev Econ Res Grp, Washington, DC 20433 USA. RP Ambrosi, P, CIRED, Jardin Trop, 45bis Ave Belle Gabrielle, F-94736 Nogent Sur Marne, France. AB This paper examines the consequences of various attitudes towards climate damages through a family of stochastic optimal control models (RESPONSE): cost-efficiency for a given temperature ceiling; cost-benefit analysis with a "pure preference for current climate regime" and full cost-benefit analysis. The choice of a given proxy of climate change risks is actually more than a technical option. It is essentially motivated by the degree of distrust regarding the legitimacy of an assessment of climate damages and the possibility of providing in due time reliable and non controversial estimates. Our results demonstrate that (a) for early decades abatement, the difference between various decision-making frameworks appears to matter less than the difference between stochastic and non stochastic approach given the cascade of uncertainty from emissions to damages; (b) in a stochastic approach, the possibility of non-catastrophic singularities in the damage function is sufficient to significantly increase earlier optimal abatements; (c) a window of opportunity for action exists up to 2040: abatements further delayed may induce significant regret in case of bad news about climate response or singularities in damages. CR *UN, 1992, UN FRAM CONV CLIM CH ALLEY R, 2002, ABRUPT CLIMATE CHANG AMBROSI P, 2002, MODELISATION INTEGRE BURCE JP, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995 CHICHILNISKY G, 1996, SOC CHOICE WELFARE, V13, P231 CLINE WR, 1996, FINANC DEV, V30, P4 COSTANZA R, 1997, NATURE, V387, P253 DIXIT AK, 1994, TIMING ENV POLICY DUMAS P, 2001, ENERGY MODELING FORU GJERDE J, 1999, RESOUR ENERGY ECON, V21, P289 HADUONG M, 1997, NATURE, V390, P270 HAMMITT JK, 1999, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V41, P447 HOUGHTON JT, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 HOURCADE JC, 1995, ENERG POLICY, V23, P433 KOOPMANS TC, 1960, ECONOMETRICA, V28, P287 LAVE LB, 1992, ENERGY J, V12, P9 LECOCQ F, 2003, ENJEUX EC EFFET SERR, P177 MANNE AS, 1992, BUYING GREENHOUSE IN MANNE AS, 1995, EMF14 STANF U MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 METZ B, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 NAKICENOVIC N, 2000, SPECIAL REPORT EMISS NARAIN U, 2002, GLOBAL WARMING ENDOG NORDHAUS W, 1994, MANAGING GLOBAL COMM NORDHAUS W, 1999, WARMING WORLD EC MOD PARRY ML, 2001, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V11, P181 PECK S, 1993, ASSESSING SURPRISES SCHNEIDER SH, 1981, J GEOPHYS RES, V86, P3135 SCIMENI G, 1987, PREVENTIVE ENV POLIC SIMONETT O, 1989, POTENTIAL IMPACTS GL TOMAN MA, 1998, ECOL ECON, V25, P57 WEISS H, 2001, SCIENCE, V291, P609 WIGLEY TML, 1996, NATURE, V379, P240 NR 33 TC 0 J9 ENVIRON MODEL ASSESS BP 133 EP 147 PY 2003 PD SEP VL 8 IS 3 GA 717QQ UT ISI:000185101200003 ER PT J AU Foster, GD TI China as great power: from red menace to green giant? SO COMMUNIST AND POST-COMMUNIST STUDIES LA English DT Article C1 Natl Def Univ, Ind Coll Armed Forces, Washington, DC 20319 USA. RP Foster, GD, Natl Def Univ, Ind Coll Armed Forces, Washington, DC 20319 USA. AB China's standing in the world-whether it is, or is seen to be, a great power-is a question of signal importance because of what great powers are capable of doing, what effects their actions and words have on others, and what is expected of them. By most conventional measures, China is at least on the verge of being a great power. Yet the country also occupies a pivotal global position in terms of its present and expected future impact on the environment. In the final analysis, because greatness is so much a function of a willingness to shoulder responsibility and demonstrate leadership, China's standing as a great power may well be determined by the country's response to the acute environmental stresses it faces. Published by Elsevier Science Ltd on behalf of The Regents of the University of California. CR 1991, BEIJING REV 0708, P10 1996, ENV PROTECTION CHINA 1996, NEWSWEEK 0401, P26 1997, BASIC PRINCIPLES POS, CH1 1997, NATL SECURITY STRATE 1997, NEW PERSPECTIVES WIN, P36 1998, CHINAS NATL DEFENSE 1998, NATL SECURITY STRATE 1999, NATL SECURITY STRATE *NAT DEF U, 1997, STRAT ASS 1997 FLASH *NAT DEF U, 1998, STRAT ASS 1998 ENG P *NAT DEF U, 1999, STRAT ASS 1999 PRIOR *US DEP DEF, 1998, US SEC STRAT E AS PA *US DEP STAT BUR E, 1997, CHIN 2000 BERNSTEIN R, 1997, COMING CONFLICT CHIN BRZEZINSKI Z, 1997, FOREIGN AFF, V76, P50 BRZEZINSKI Z, 1997, GRAND CHESSBOARD AM CHAN S, 1999, WORLD AFFAIRS SPR, P179 CHENG S, 1996, BEIJING REV 1021 CHOATE P, 1997, NEW PERSPECTIVES SUM, P21 CLINTON W, 1998, REMARKS PRESIDENT EN CLINTON W, 1998, REMARKS PRESIDENT US CRANE GT, 1996, CURRENT JAN, P19 EGAN K, 1997, CHINA TRADE REPORT, P10 ESTY DC, 1999, PIVOTAL STATES NEW F, P290 FLAVIN C, 1997, STATE WORLD 1997, P3 FRIEDBERG AL, 1999, COMMENTARY JUL, P27 FUKUYAMA F, 1992, END HIST LAST MAN GARVER JW, 1998, CHINA J JAN, P61 GERTZ W, 2000, CHINA THREAT PEOPLES GILL B, 1999, NATL INTEREST SUM, P55 GILL B, 1999, WASHINGTON POST 0620, B1 GILL B, 1999, WASHINGTON POST 0620, B5 GOODMAN DSG, 1997, SURVIVAL, V39, P140 GRIES P, 1997, CHINA J JAN, P180 HAASS RN, 1997, BROOKINGS REV SPR, P4 HAMMOND A, 1998, WHICH WORLD SCEANARI HERTSGAARD M, 1997, ATLANTIC MONTHLY NOV, P96 HUNTINGTON SP, 1996, CLASH CIVILIZATIONS HUNTINGTON SP, 1997, FOREIGN AFFAIRS SEP, P28 KIM SS, 1997, CURRENT HIST SEP, P246 KISSINGER H, 1994, DIPLOMACY KWONG P, 1996, WORLD BUSINESS MAY, P26 LARKIN BD, 1980, CHINA GLOBAL COMMUNI, P63 LEES FA, 1997, CHINA SUPERPOWER REQ LUTTWAK EN, 1994, FOREIGN AFF, V73, P23 MONTAPERTO R, 1996, HARVARD INT REV SPR, P28 NAISBITT J, 1996, MEGATRENDS ASIA NIXON R, 1988, 1999 VICTORY WAR NIXON R, 1992, SEIZE MOMENT AM CHAL NYE JS, 1990, BOUND LEAD CHANGING NYE JS, 1998, ECONOMIST 0627, P23 RIELLY JE, 1999, AM PUBLIC OPINION US ROSS R, 1997, NATL INTEREST FAL, P42 SCHELL O, 1997, NY TIMES 0310, C16 SCHWALJE NL, 1996, J INT AFFAIRS WIN, P633 SCOWCROFT B, 1999, WALL STREET J 0405 SEAGRAVE S, 1995, LORDS RIM INVISIBLE SEGAL G, 1996, HARVARD INT REV SPR, P26 SEGAL G, 1996, HARVARD INT REV SPR, P71 SHAMBAUGH D, 1996, FAR E EC REV 0612, P62 SHAMBAUGH D, 1996, INT SECURITY, V21, P180 SPANIER J, 1990, GAMES NATIONS PLAY SPENCE JD, 1998, CHANS GREAT CONTINEN WALDRON A, 1996, WILSON Q SPR, P86 WALDRON A, 1998, AM ENTERPRISE JUL, P40 WEIDENBAUM M, 1997, ACROSS BOARD APR, P31 YE R, 1997, C REP ENV CHANG REG, P1 ZHANG ZX, 1998, UN DEV PROGR WORKSH ZHAO S, 1998, BROW J WORLD AFF SUM, P95 NR 70 TC 1 J9 COMMUNIST POST-COMMUNIST STUD BP 157 EP 174 PY 2001 PD JUN VL 34 IS 2 GA 435LJ UT ISI:000168882700002 ER PT J AU Siurua, H Swift, J TI Drought and Zud but no famine (yet) in the Mongolian herding economy SO IDS BULLETIN-INSTITUTE OF DEVELOPMENT STUDIES LA English DT Article C1 Univ Sussex, Brighton BN1 9RH, E Sussex, England. AB This article asks the question why there has been no famine in Mongolia in the past three years, in spite of a series of zuds - natural disasters, which devastated pastoral livelihoods and left large numbers of nomadic herders destitute. Based on fieldwork in southwestern Mongolia, the article uncovers the range of resources and strategies employed by herders to cope with catastrophic risk, including household winter stores, borrowing, 'moral economy' transfers, pensions, relief aid, and non-herding employment. Against the background of economic liberalisation and greater individual risk burdens due to the dismantling of social security safety nets, state service provision, and livestock insurance systems, the resilience of herding households is remarkable; but after the most recent disaster in 2002, coping capacities are beginning to wear thin. CR *NSO WORLD BANK, 2001, MONG PART LIV STAND *NSO, 1996, MONG STAT YB 1995 *NSO, 2001, MONG STAT YB 2000 *STAT BOARD CIV DE, 2002, DZUD MONG *STAT DEP BAY PROV, 2002, REP EC SOC SIT BAY P *UNDP, 2000, LESS LEARN DZUD 1999 *UNDP, 2001, SUST GRASSL MAN PROJ COOPER L, 1993, 8 I DEV STUD COOPER L, 1993, NOMADIC PEOPLES, V33, P153 DAVIS GB, 1993, DATA BASE, V24, P4 DEVEREUX S, 1993, IDS BULL-I DEV STUD, V24, P52 DEWAAL A, 1989, FAMINE KILLS DARFUR MEARNS R, 1995, 350 IDS POTKANSKI T, 1993, 4 I DEV STUD SEN AK, 1999, DEV FREEDOM SWIFT J, 1989, IDS B, V20, P8 SWIFT J, 1995, POVERTY TRANSITION M, P104 SZYNKIEWICZ S, 1993, NOMADIC PEOPLES, V33, P163 TEMPLER G, 1993, NOMADIC PEOPLES, V33, P105 NR 19 TC 1 J9 IDS BULL-INST DEVELOP STUD BP 88 EP + PY 2002 PD OCT VL 33 IS 4 GA 699FT UT ISI:000184046600011 ER PT J AU Haque, CE TI Perspectives of natural disasters in East and South Asia, and the Pacific Island states: Socio-economic correlates and needs assessment SO NATURAL HAZARDS LA English DT Article C1 Univ Manitoba, Nat Resources Inst, Winnipeg, MB R3T 2N2, Canada. RP Haque, CE, Univ Manitoba, Nat Resources Inst, Winnipeg, MB R3T 2N2, Canada. AB The regions of East and South Asia, and the Pacific Islands are among the most-hazard prone areas in the world. Because of this, during the last century, most of the human casualties of 'natural-triggered' disasters have taken place in this region. This circumstance therefore has become a major global humanitarian concern. Another major concern, specifically for the donor agencies, is the damage sustained by infrastructure resulting from environmental disasters. These recurrent loses take away a significant proportion of the cumulative economic gains accrued from development investments over many years. Stepwise multiple regression results substantiated the fact that many of the socio-economic and demographic variables significantly influence disaster-related deaths and injuries in this part of the world. A comparative temporal analysis has shown that, over the past two decades, demographic variables have become prominent predictors of disaster-loss in South, Southeast and East Asian and the Pacific states. Many countries of the region are lagging behind in understanding and recognizing the broader scope of disaster mitigation and management. Emerging needs and awareness among the decision-makers and the general public, however, have prompted institutions in many countries to initiate a critical review of the prevailing approaches. The country-specific disaster-management capacities and needs in the region vary widely. There are many differences in historical courses, institutional and administrative settings, sociocultural characteristics, as well as political and economic systems. Development of a common institutional framework for the region, therefore, seems unfeasible. Based upon a regional review, it has become clear that the research calls for improving the understanding of the significance of disaster mitigation and management in light of sustainable development and the emerging global issues. In addition, aspects of human resource development to enhance institutional mitigation and response capacities are emphasized. CR *INT FED RED CROSS, 1997, WORLD DIS REP 1997 *INT FED RED CROSS, 1998, WORLD DIS REP 1998 *REINS CO, 2001, MUN REIN *WORLD BANK, 1995, WORLD DEV REP 1995 *WORLD BANK, 1996, WORLD DEV REP 1996 *WORLD BANK, 1997, WORLD DEV REP 1997 *WORLD BANK, 2000, WORLD DEV REP 2000 ALEXANDER D, 1985, DISASTERS, V9, P57 BERZ G, 1990, UNDRO NEWS JAN, P18 BURTON I, 1978, ENV HAZARD, V1, P1 CHUNG J, 1998, REG WORKSH SUST DEV, P95 CUNY FC, 1983, DISASTERS DEV DEGG M, 1992, GEOGRAPHY, V77, P198 DONAHUE AK, 2000, J PUBL ADM RES THEOR, V10, P381 HAQUE CE, 1995, ENVIRON MANAGE, V19, P719 HAQUE CE, 1998, HAZARDS FICKLE ENV B HEWITT K, 1982, SOCIAL EC ASPECTS EA, P15 HEWITT K, 1983, INTERPRETATIONS CALA HEWITT K, 1997, REGIONS RISK GEOGRAP, V1, P1 INGRAHAM PW, 2000, ADV PUBLIC MANAGEMEN, P235 KAUFMAN R, 1980, EVALUATION FEAR NEW KETTL DF, 1996, STATE PUBLIC MANAGEM RAO RS, 1998, REG WORKSH SUST DEV, P130 REITER L, 1990, EARTHQUAKE HAZARD AN ROOYING C, 1997, REG WORKSH SUST DEV SCRIVEN M, 1978, NEW DIRECTIONS PROGR, V1, P1 SEN AK, 1976, 2 VIKR SAR MEM LECT SEN AK, 1980, WORLD DEV, V8, P613 SEN AK, 1981, POVERTY FAMINES ESSA, V1, P1 SEN AK, 1982, THIRD WORLD Q, V4, P447 SHAH BV, 1983, DISASTERS, V7, P202 VARLEY A, 1994, DISASTERS DEV ENV NR 32 TC 0 J9 NATURAL HAZARDS BP 465 EP 483 PY 2003 PD JUL VL 29 IS 3 GA 701NR UT ISI:000184174100010 ER PT J AU Sathaye, JA Dixon, RK Rosenzweig, C TI Climate change country studies SO APPLIED ENERGY LA English DT Article C1 US COUNTRY STUDIES PROGRAM,WASHINGTON,DC. COLUMBIA UNIV,NASA,GODDARD INST SPACE STUDIES,NEW YORK,NY. RP Sathaye, JA, LAWRENCE BERKELEY LAB,BERKELEY,CA 94720. AB Over the past three years, country studies have improved country-specific, and hence global, estimates of: (i) greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and sequestration, and (ii) costs and benefits of mitigation options, and (iii) the vulnerability of natural habitats and human systems. The technical and financial support provided by the US and other country-study programs has enhanced the contribution of experts from developing and transition countries to their global scientific assessment. This paper presents a brief overview of work conducted in the context of the US Country Studies Program in the development of national GHG inventories, assessment of GHG mitigation options, and assessment of vulnerability to climate change and options for adaptation. Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. CR *ENERGOPROEKT, 1995, BULG COUNTR STUD ADD *IPCC WG I TECHN S, 1995, IPCC OECD GREENH GAS, V1 *IPCC, 1995, IPCC 1995 WORK GROUP *MIN ENV CZECH REP, 1994, CZECH REP 1 COMM NAT *UN, 1992, FRAM CONV CLIM CHANG *WORLD RES I, 1994, WORLD RES 1994 95 BRAATZ B, 1996, IN PRESS EMISSION IN BROWN S, 1995, COMMUNICATION BROWN S, 1996, COMMONWEALTH FORESTR, V75, P80 CARTER TR, 1994, TECHNICAL GUIDELINES DIXON RK, 1994, SCIENCE, V263, P185 DIXON RK, 1996, AMBIO, V25, P1 DIXON RK, 1996, VULNERABILITY ADAPTA DVROAK V, 1996, IN PRESS CLIMATIC CH ELSHAER MH, 1996, IN PRESS GLOBAL MITI HALSNAES K, 1994, ENERG POLICY, V22, P925 HOUGHTON JT, 1994, CLIMATE CHANGE 1994 JALLOW BP, 1996, IN PRESS VULNERABILI LAROVERE EL, 1994, ENERG POLICY, V22, P914 LENHART SS, 1996, VULNERABILITY ADAPTA MARLAND G, 1995, IDOJARUS, V99, P139 MASERA O, 1996, INTERCIENCIA, V20, P388 MONGIA N, 1994, ENERG POLICY, V22, P894 OH JG, 1996, AMBIO, V25, P4 OH JG, 1996, IN PRESS AMBIO, V25, P4 PATZ JA, 1996, CLIMATE RES, V6, P113 SATHAYE J, 1995, GREENHOUSE GAS MITIG SIDDIQI TA, 1995, ANNU REV ENERG ENV, V20, P213 SMITH JB, 1996, ADAPTING CLIMATE CHA STRZEPEK KM, 1996, CLIMATE RES, V6, P89 TOURE S, 1996, ENV PROFESSIONAL WEERAKKODY U, 1996, IN PRESS CLIMATE RES WU ZX, 1994, ENERG POLICY, V22, P907 NR 33 TC 3 J9 APPL ENERG BP 225 EP 235 PY 1997 PD MAR-APR VL 56 IS 3-4 GA XR663 UT ISI:A1997XR66300005 ER PT J AU Endfield, GH Tejedo, IF O'Hara, SL TI Drought and disputes, deluge and dearth: climatic variability and human response in colonial Oaxaca, Mexico SO JOURNAL OF HISTORICAL GEOGRAPHY LA English DT Review C1 Univ Nottingham, Sch Geog, Nottingham NG7 2RD, England. RP Endfield, GH, Univ Nottingham, Sch Geog, Univ Pk, Nottingham NG7 2RD, England. AB 'Extreme' weather events such as droughts, floods, hurricanes, frosts and unusually high or low temperatures can have immense and immediate social, economic and environmental impacts. Investigations of historical extreme weather events, and the nature of the social responses to them, afford insight into the way in which societies have been affected by and have adapted to these events in the past. Historical documents represent invaluable sources to investigate these themes. In this paper we use a range of archival sources to investigate how society in colonial Oaxaca, southern Mexico, was affected by and responded to different types of extreme weather event. Our findings indicate that while drought contributed to antagonism over water supplies between users, it was also used opportunistically to support or challenge cases of water deprivation in legal proceedings. Flooding appears to have been a relatively frequent phenomenon in colonial Oaxaca, but a number of particularly devastating flood events are recorded in the archives. The impact of these events appears to have been determined as much by the timing of the events and level of socio-economic preparedness, as by scale of the flood itself. We then analyse harvest losses due to a range of different climatic phenomena. We highlight how different cross-sections of the community and the local administration responded to these events and suggest that some of the documented harvest losses might have actually been encouraged by high risk agricultural practices. (C) 2004 Published by Elsevier Ltd. CR 1609, PAPELES NUEVA ESPANN, V4, P288 ACOSTA VG, 1993, RED, V1, P2 ANDERSON JL, 1981, CLIMATE HIST BALLARD C, 1986, J INTERDISCIPLINARY, V18, P359 BALLARD C, 1986, J INTERDISCIPLINARY, V18, P359 BARRETT EM, 1973, LATINAMERIKAS, V10, P71 BERZ G, 1997, P WORKSH IND IND CLI BORAH W, 1951, IBEROAMERICANA, V35 BROWN N, 1998, WATER ENV SOC TIMES, P241 BRYSON RA, 1980, J INTERDISCIPLINARY, V10, P583 BUTZER KW, 1993, CULTURE FORM PLACE E, V32, P89 BUTZER KW, 1995, GLOBAL LAND USE CHAN, P151 BUTZER KW, 1997, QUATERN INT, V43, P161 CHEVALIER F, 1952, FORMACION GRANDES DO COOK SF, 1960, IBEROAMERICANA, V44 COOK SF, 1968, IBEROAMERICANA, V50 DELPASO F, 1505, EPISTOLARIO NUEVA ES, V4, P141 DILLEY M, 1997, INT J CLIMATOL, V17, P1549 DILLEY M, 1997, INT J CLIMATOL, V17, P1549 DOOLITTLE WE, 1989, AM ANTIQUITY, V54, P841 DUNCAN J, 1999, WRITES PASSAGE READI, P4 EASTERLIING DR, 2001, B AM METEOROLOGICAL, V81, P417 ENDFIELD GH, THESIS U SHEFFIELD E ENDFIELD GH, 1997, ENVIRON HIST, V3, P255 ENDFIELD GH, 1997, ENVIRON HIST, V3, P255 ENDFIELD GH, 1997, THESIS U SHEFFIELD E ENDFIELD GH, 2002, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V92, P727 ENDFIELD GH, 2002, GEOGR J, V168, P133 ESPARZA M, 1994, RELACIONES GEOGRAFIC FLANNERY KV, 1967, SCIENCE, V158, P445 FLANNERY KV, 1969, PRELIMINARY ARCHAEOL FLORESCANO E, 1976, ORIGEN DESAROLLO PRO FORESCANO E, 1981, FUENTES HIST CRISIS GAY JA, 1950, HIST OAXACA GAY JA, 1950, HIST OAXACA, P276 GAY JA, 1950, HIST OAXACA, P427 GREENLEAF RE, 1974, RES MEXICAN HIST TOP GROVE JM, 1983, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V5, P265 GROVE JM, 1988, LITTLE ICE AGE GROVE JM, 1995, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V30, P223 GROVE JM, 2001, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V48, P53 GRUNDMANN R, 2000, SOCIAL SCI INFORMAT, V39 GRUNDMANN R, 2002, SOC SCI INFORM, V39, P155 HASAN F, 2000, WAY WIND BLOWS CLIMA, P121 HASSAN F, 2000, WAY WIND BLOWS CLIMA, P121 HASSIG R, 1981, J ANTHROPOL RES, V37, P172 HEWITT WP, 1987, AM ANTIQUITY, V52, P799 HOUGHTON JT, 2001, CLIMATIC CHANGE 2001 INGRAM MJ, 1981, CLIMATE HIST STUDIES, P3 KARL TR, 1999, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V42, P309 KIRBY AV, 1974, NATURAL HAZARDS LOCA, P119 KIRKBY AV, 1974, NATURAL HAZARDS LOCA, P119 KIRKBY AVT, 1972, PREHISTORY HUMAN ECO, V1 LADURIE EL, 1983, HIST CLIMAT DEPUIS M LANDSBERG H, 1980, J INTERDISCIPLINARY, V10, P631 LEES S, 1997, INT J CLIMATOLOGY, V17, P1549 LICATE JA, 1981, CREATION MEXICAN LAN LIPSETTRIVERA S, 1990, HISPANIC AM HIST REV, V70, P463 LIVERMAN DM, 1990, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V80, P49 LOEGERING WQ, 1969, WHEAT WHAT IMPROVEME, V13, P314 LOPEZLARA R, 1973, ESTUDIOS MICHOACANOS, V3 LORENZO JL, 1960, REV MEX ESTUD ANTROP, V16, P49 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 MCINTOSH RJ, 2000, WAY WIND BLOWS, P1 MELVILLE EGK, 1990, COMP STUD SOC HIST, V32, P24 MELVILLE EGK, 1994, PLAGUE SHEEP ENV CON METCALFE SE, 1987, GEOGR J, V153, P211 MEYER WB, 1998, HUMAN CHOICE CLIMATE, P218 MEYERS WB, 1998, HUMAN CHOICE CLIMATE, P238 MURPHY ME, 1982, LATIN AM STUDIES, V19 MUSSET A, 1992, AGUA VALLE MEXICO SI NASH DJ, 2002, INT J CLIMATOL, V22, P821 NASH DJ, 2002, S AFR J SCI, V98, P244 OHARA SL, 1993, GEOGR J, V159, P51 OHARA SL, 1995, HOLOCENE, V5, P485 OHARA SL, 1995, HOLOCENE, V5, P485 OLIVERSMITH A, 2000, ANGRY EARTH DISASTER, P73 OUWENEEL A, 1996, SHADOWS ANAAHUAC EOC, P93 PASO F, 1939, PAPELES NUEVA ESPANA, V4 PORTILLO A, 1910, OAXACA CENTENARIO IN, P188 PREM HJ, 1978, MILPA HACIENDA TENEN PREM HJ, 1984, EXPLORATIONS ETHNOHI, P205 PREM HJ, 1992, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V82, P444 REILLY JM, 1999, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V43, P745 ROJAS RT, 1974, NUEVAS NOTICIAS OBRA ROJASRABIELA T, 1994, AGR INDIGENA PASADO, P109 SANDERS WT, 1992, ANTIQUITY, V66, P172 SIMPSON LB, 1972, EXPLOITATION LAND CE TAYLOR WB, 1978, HACIENDAS LATIFUNDIO, P74 TAYLOR, 1972, LANDLORD PEASANT COL TRONCOSCO PY, 1939, EPISTOLARIO NUEVO ES, V4, P141 VONHUNBOLDT B, 1911, ESSAI POLITIQUE ROYA, P107 WEBRE S, 1990, HAHR FEB, V70, P57 WIGLEY TML, 1985, NATURE, V316, P106 WILLIAMS BJ, 1972, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V62, P618 NR 95 TC 0 J9 J HIST GEOGR BP 249 EP 276 PY 2004 PD APR VL 30 IS 2 GA 856IC UT ISI:000224037900003 ER PT J AU Vieira, JMP Pinho, JLS Duarte, AALS TI Eutrophication vulnerability analysis: A case study SO WATER SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY LA English DT Article C1 Univ Minho, Dept Civil Engn, P-4709 Braga, Portugal. RP Vieira, JMP, Univ Minho, Dept Civil Engn, P-4709 Braga, Portugal. AB River Cavado water quality variability was studied for eutrophication vulnerability assessment at a new surface water supply intake. Since the river flow regime is artificially controlled by upstream multipurpose reservoirs, mathematical modelling was applied in evaluating alternative management scenarios. Due to the fact that surface water quality at intake location is mainly affected by a wastewater treatment plant effluent discharge 5 km upstream, algae and nutrients concentration simulations have been worked out in order to identify critical situations. Different algal concentration profiles along the river were obtained for local conditions of light energy, water temperature and estimated nutrient loads, showing high probability of eutrophication occurrence for some of the simulated scenarios, The discussion of results of this study appears to be very useful for river basin wide water management policies evaluation. (C) 1998 IAWQ. Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. CR *DPH, 1996, RIV CAV WAT FLOW MEA *ICIM, 1992, DUFLOW MICR PACK SIM *PGIRHN, 1992, IMP ASS WAT SUPPL RI *U MINH, 1995, RIV CAV WAT QUAL SUR *USEPA, 1983, TECHN GUID MAN PERF *USEPA, 1992, EUTRO4 WAT QUAL AN S ABBOTT MB, 1979, COMPUTATINAL HYDRAUL CHAU KW, 1991, ADV WATER RESOUR, V14, P106 THOMANN RV, 1987, PRINCIPLES SURFACE W VIEIRA JMP, 1989, WATER RES, V23, P767 VIEIRA JMP, 1996, P METROPOLITAN AREAS, V2, P258 NR 11 TC 1 J9 WATER SCI TECHNOL BP 121 EP 128 PY 1998 VL 37 IS 3 GA ZM335 UT ISI:000073528200015 ER PT J AU Berkhout, F Hertin, J TI Socio-economic scenarios for climate impact assessment SO GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS LA English DT Editorial Material C1 Univ Sussex, Sci Policy Res Unit, Brighton BN1 9RF, E Sussex, England. RP Berkhout, F, Univ Sussex, Sci Policy Res Unit, Brighton BN1 9RF, E Sussex, England. CR ADGER WN, 1996, 9605 CSERGE GEC ADGER WN, 1999, WORLD DEV, V27, P249 ALCAMO J, 1994, IMAGE 2 0 INTEGRATED ARNELL NW, 1999, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHA S, V9, S31 DEJOUVENAL H, 1967, ART CONJECTURE FONTELA E, 2000, FORESIGHT, V2, P11 GODET M, 1987, SCENARIOS STRATEGIC GODET M, 1997, MANUEL PROSPECTIVE S GODET M, 2000, FORESIGHT, V2, P5 MEADOWS D, 1972, LIMITS GROWTH GLOBAL PARRY ML, 1998, EC IMPLICATIONS GLOB PARRY ML, 1998, NATURE, V395, P741 PARRY ML, 1999, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHA S, V9, PS51 ROSENBERG NJ, 1993, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V24, P1 STIRLING A, 1998, J RISK RES, V1, P97 VANDERHEIJDEN K, 1996, SCENARIOS ART STRATE NR 16 TC 3 J9 GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANGE BP 165 EP 168 PY 2000 PD OCT VL 10 IS 3 GA 368KQ UT ISI:000090116500001 ER PT J AU SCHWARE, R TI OFFICIAL AND FOLK FLOOD WARNING SYSTEMS - AN ASSESSMENT SO ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article RP SCHWARE, R, NATL CTR ATMOSPHER RES,ENVIRONM & SOCIETAL IMPACTS GRP,POB 3000,BOULDER,CO 80307. CR 1968, REPORT WORKING FLOOD 1970, NATIONAL SAMPLE SURV BAGCHI R, 1979, DIAGNOSTIC SURVEY 1 BOSE SC, 1968, GEOGRAPHY W BENGAL CHAKRABORTY SC, 1978, EC TIMES 1113 CHAKRABORTY SC, 1978, EC TIMES 1116 CLARK JP, 1979, NATURAL HAZARDS WARN, V7908 HART HC, 1956, NEW INDIAS RIVERS ISLAM MA, 1971, 18 U COL I BEH SCI N MCLUCKIE BF, 1973, WARNING SYSTEM SOCIA MILETI DS, 1975, NATURAL HAZARDS WARN MUKHERJEE R, 1938, CHANGING FACE BENGAL NAG RN, 1979, CRESSIDA11 WORK PAP PIFER B, 1978, B AM METEOROLOGICAL, V59 RALPH KA, 1975, THESIS U HAWAII HONO RAMACHANDRAN R, 1974, NATURAL HAZARDS LOCA RODDA JC, 1970, GEOGRAPHICAL MAGAZIN, V42, P112 SCHWARE R, 1981, FLOOD FORECASTING WA SEN S, 1955, INDIAN J POWER RIVER SORENSEN JH, 1980, ENVIRON MANAGE, V4, P125 WHITE GF, 1939, T AM GEOPHYSICAL UNI, V20, P218 WHITE GF, 1975, ASSESSMENT RES NATUR, V1, P1 WILIAMS H, 1964, THREAT IMPENDING DIS NR 23 TC 2 J9 ENVIRON MANAGE BP 209 EP 216 PY 1982 VL 6 IS 3 GA NN135 UT ISI:A1982NN13500004 ER PT J AU DOW, KM TI EXPLORING DIFFERENCES IN OUR COMMON FUTURE(S) - THE MEANING OF VULNERABILITY TO GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL-CHANGE SO GEOFORUM LA English DT Article C1 CLARK UNIV,CTR TECHNOL ENVIRONM & DEV,WORCESTER,MA 01610. RP DOW, KM, CLARK UNIV,GRAD SCH GEOG,950 MAIN ST,WORCESTER,MA 01610. AB We share a future of environmental changes that entails different consequences for people and regions. Vulnerability, a central concept in understanding these distributions is receiving increasing attention, although little consensus exists about its meaning and implications. An overview of the definitions, factors and explanations of vulnerability raises issues of values and policy converging around vulnerability. Four issues are discussed in greater detail: (1) the relationship between dimensions of vulnerability (exposure, resistance, the ability to resist harm, and resilience, the capacity to recover from impacts); (2) the relationship between biophysical and social distributions of vulnerability; (3) the emergence of vulnerability as a characteristic of relationships across social scales; and (4) the role of temporal sequences or cycles in creating 'windows of vulnerability.' CR 1991, RESPONDING 3RD WORLD, V222 1992, ECONOMIST 0208, P19 *BROOKH NAT LAB, 1969, DIV STAB EC SYST *CTR GLOB CHANG SC, 1992, SYMP SUMM *NRC, 1987, CONFR NAT DIS *NRC, 1991, SAF FUT *OFF INT EARTH STU, 1991, AR EC INT REP *UN COMM ENV DEV, 1992, GUID AG 21 *UN DEV PROGR, 1990, 1990 HUM DEV REP *WHO, 1992, HLTH DIM EC REF *WORLD BANK, 1990, 1990 WORLD DEV REP *WORLD COMM ENV DE, 1987, OUR COMM FUT *WRI, 1990, WORLD RES 1990 91 AGARWAL A, 1991, GLOBAL WARMING UNEQU AKONGA J, 1988, IMPACT CLIMATIC VARI, P221 ALEXANDER DE, 1991, NAT HAZARDS, V4, P57 ALI M, 1984, FAMINE GEOGRAPHICAL, P113 BANDARA CMM, 1989, INT SOC SCI J, V41, P441 BLAIKE P, 1987, LAND DEGRADATION SOC BOLIN R, 1991, DISASTERS, V15, P24 BROOKS H, 1986, SUSTAINABLE DEV BIOS, P325 BRYANT RL, 1992, POLIT GEOGR, V11, P12 BURTON I, 1978, ENV HAZARD, V1, P1 CANNON T, IN PRESS DISASTERS D CHAMBERS R, 1984, PEOPLE CTR DEV, P128 CHAMBERS R, 1989, IDS B, V20, P1 COMFORT L, 1989, IND CRISIS Q, V3, P17 CONNELL JH, 1983, AM NAT, V121, P789 DOWNING TE, 1991, RR911 AS FEINST WORL DRABEK TE, 1986, HUMAN SYSTEM RESPONS FISCHHOFF B, 1984, POLICY SCI, V17, P123 GLEICK PH, 1990, CLIMATE CHANGE US WA, P223 GREEN CH, 1990, HAZARD VULNERABILITY HAMMERTON JL, 1984, DISASTERS, V8, P279 HEATHCOTE RL, 1985, CLIMATE IMPACT ASSES, P369 HEWITT K, 1983, INTERPRETATIONS CALA, P3 HOLLING CS, 1973, ANNUAL REV ECOLOGY S, V4, P1 HOLLING CS, 1986, SUSTAINABLE DEV BIOS, V1, P1 JEFFERY SE, 1981, 40 U COL I BEH SCI N JEFFERY SE, 1982, DISASTERS, V6, P38 KASPERSON RE, 1983, RISK S ASSESSMENT PE KASPERSON RE, 1986, HAZARDS TECHNOLOGY F, P118 KASPERSON RE, 1990, WORKSHOP COMMENTARY KASPERSON RE, 1991, EVALUATION REV, V15, P149 KATES RW, 1985, CLIMATE IMPACT ASSES, P3 KRENAK A, 1987, WCED, P115 LEWIS J, 1990, DISASTERS, V14, P241 LIVERMAN DM, 1986, CITIES MAY, P142 LIVERMAN DM, 1990, UNDERSTANDING GLOBAL, V1, P27 MAHMUD A, 1991, NEW INT, V222, P10 MARGALEF R, 1969, BROOKHAVEN S BIOLOGY, V22, P25 MAUDER WJ, 1985, CLIMATE IMPACT ASSES, P85 MERANI NS, 1991, MANAGING NATURAL DIS MILETI DS, 1987, TAKING CARE UNDERSTA, P189 MITCHELL JK, 1984, ENV PERCEPTION BEHAV, P33 MITCHELL JK, 1984, HURRICANE DIANA N CA MITCHELL JK, 1989, 13 ENV POL WORK PAP NANJIRA DDC, 1991, MANAGING NATURAL DIS, P82 OBERTHUR S, 1991, ENVIRON POLICY LAW, V21, P193 OKEEFE P, 1976, NATURE, V260, P566 PANKHURST A, 1984, DISASTERS, V8, P206 PARR A, 1987, DISASTERS, V11, P148 PETAK WJ, 1982, NATURAL HAZARD RISK PLATT R, 1991, DISASTERS, V15, P172 RAMIREZ A, 1991, NY TIMES 1208 RIEBSAME WE, 1991, MANAGING NATURAL DIS, P9 RIVERS JPW, 1982, DISASTERS, V6, P256 SCHROEDER RA, 1987, 58 U COL I BEH SCI W SCOTT JC, 1976, MORAL EC PEASANT SIMS JH, 1985, AM STAT, V39, P358 SLOVIC P, 1979, ENVIRONMENT, V21, P227 SUSMAN P, 1983, INTERPRETATIONS CALA, P263 SWIFT J, 1989, IDS B, V20, P8 TAWNEY RH, 1966, LAND LABOR CHINA TIGLAO R, 1992, FAR E EC REV 0116, P50 TIGLAO R, 1992, FAR E EC REV 0116, P50 TIMMERMAN P, 1981, ENV MONOGRAPH, V1, P1 TITUS JG, 1987, IMPACT SEA LEVEL RIS, P104 TORRY WI, 1979, DISASTERS, V3, P43 TVERSKY A, 1975, UTILITY PROBABILITY, P141 WARRICK RA, 1983, INTERPRETATIONS CALA, P67 WARRICK RA, 1983, SOCIAL SCI RES CLIMA, P20 WESTGATE K, 1979, DISASTERS, V3, P244 NR 83 TC 20 J9 GEOFORUM BP 417 EP 436 PY 1992 PD AUG VL 23 IS 3 GA KD503 UT ISI:A1992KD50300012 ER PT J AU Harrison, GP Whittington, HW TI Vulnerability of hydropower projects to climate change SO IEE PROCEEDINGS-GENERATION TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION LA English DT Article C1 Univ Edinburgh, Dept Elect & Elect Engn, Edinburgh EH9 3JL, Midlothian, Scotland. RP Harrison, GP, Univ Edinburgh, Dept Elect & Elect Engn, Kings Bldg,Mayfield Rd, Edinburgh EH9 3JL, Midlothian, Scotland. AB Gaseous emissions from fossil-fuelled electricity generation are major contributors to climate change. Limiting the extent of such change will depend, among other things, on the continuing and increased use of renewable sources, including hydropower. Paradoxically, climate change itself may alter the availability of this natural resource, adversely affecting the financial viability of both existing and potential schemes. A model is described to assess the relationship between changes in climate and the viability, technical and financial, of hydropower development. A case study is presented, both to validate the model and to predict the impact of climate change on a large potential scheme in Africa. CR *BATOKA JOINT VENT, 1993, BAT GORG HYDR EL SCH *IPCC, 2001, CLIM CHANG 2001 SCI *UNFCCC, 1998, KYOT PROT UN FRAM C *US ARM CORPS ENG, 1990, HEC 5 SIM FLOOD CONT ARNELL NW, 1996, GLOBAL WARNING RIVER ARTHUR J, 1999, COMMUNICATION BOWLING OP, 1997, 9731 INT I APPL SYST HARRISON GP, 2001, P 4 INT C HYDR 01 BE, P257 KACZMAREK Z, 1997, 9147 INT I APPL SYST MATHEWS JH, 1987, NUMERICAL METHODS CO, P395 MICHAELWICZ Z, 1996, GENETIC ALGORITHMS P NAKICENOVIC N, 1998, GLOBAL ENERGY PERSPE NEW M, 2000, J CLIMATE, V13, P2217 REIBSAME WE, 1995, CLIMATE CHANGES INT, P57 SHUTTLEWORTH WJ, 1992, HDB HYDROLOGY SIMONOVIC SP, 1993, EXTREME HYDROLOGICAL, P349 YATES D, 1994, WP9445 INT I APPL SY YATES D, 1996, WATER RESOUR DEV, V12, P121 NR 18 TC 1 J9 IEE PROC-GENER TRANSM DISTRIB BP 249 EP 255 PY 2002 PD MAY VL 149 IS 3 GA 562ZX UT ISI:000176229800001 ER PT J AU Krol, M Jaeger, A Bronstert, A Guntner, A TI Integrated modelling of climate, water, soil, agricultural and socio-economic processes: A general introduction of the methodology and some exemplary results from the semi-arid north-east of Brazil SO JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY LA English DT Article C1 Univ Potsdam, D-14415 Potsdam, Germany. Univ Bonn, Dept Geog, D-53113 Bonn, Germany. Univ Twente, Fac Engn Technol, Discipline Grp Water Engn & Management, NL-7500 AE Enschede, Netherlands. Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res, D-14412 Potsdam, Germany. Geoforschungszentrum Potsdam, Sect Engn Hydrol, D-14473 Potsdam, Germany. RP Bronstert, A, Univ Potsdam, POB 601553, D-14415 Potsdam, Germany. AB Many semi-arid regions are characterised by water scarcity and vulnerability of natural resources, pronounced climatic variability and social stress. Integrated studies including climatotogy, hydrology, and socio-econornic studies are required both for analysing the dynamic natural conditions and to assess possible strategies to make semi-arid regions Less vulnerable to the present and changing climate. The model introduced here dynamically describes the retationships between climate forcing, water availability, agriculture and selected societal processes. The model has been tailored to simulate the rather complex situation in the semi-and north-eastern Brazil in a quantitative manner including the sensitivity to external forcing, such as climate change. The selected results presented show the general functioning of the integrated model, with a primary focus on climate change impacts. It becomes evident that due to Large differences in regional climate scenarios, it is still impossible to give quantitative values for the most probable development, e.g., to assign probabilities to the simulated results. However, it becomes clear that water is a very crucial factor, and that an efficient and ecologically sound water management is a key question for the further development of that semi-arid region. The simulation results show that, independent of the differences in climate change scenarios, rain-fed farming is more vulnerable to drought impacts compared to irrigated farming. However, the capacity of irrigation and other water infrastructure systems to enhance resilience in respect to climatic fluctuations is significantly constrained given a significant negative precipitation trend. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. CR *EUR COMM, 2002, TAP INT IT EUR WAT F *FAO, 1979, 33 FAO *WORLD WAT FOR 3, 2003, MIN DECL BATHURST JC, 2003, PHYS CHEM EARTH, V28, P579 BECKER A, 2001, NOVA ACTA LEOP, V84, P191 BRONSTERT A, 2000, PHYS CHEM EARTH PT B, V25, P227 BRONSTERT A, 2005, COUPLED MODELS HYDRO COHEN SJ, 1997, MACKENZIE BASIN IMPA DEKOK JL, 2003, PHYS CHEM EARTH, V28, P571 DOLL P, 2002, INTEGR ASSESS, V3, P308 DOLL P, 2002, WATER INT, V27, P310 DOLL P, 2003, J HYDROL, V270, P105 ENGELEN G, 2003, INTEGRATED ASSESSMEN, V4, P97 FUHR D, 2003, GLOBAL CHANGE REGION, P349 GAISER T, 2003, GLOBAL CHANGE REGION, P267 GUNTNER A, 2002, 77 PIK GUNTNER A, 2004, HYDROLOG SCI J, V49, P901 GUNTNER A, 2004, J HYDROL, V297, P136 HAUSCHILD M, 2000, 3 U KASS CTR ENV SYS HENNICKER R, 2003, 1 WORLD C INF TECHN HOYNCK S, 2003, GLOBAL CHANGE REGION, P375 JAEGER A, 2004, THESIS U POTSDAM JOHNS TC, 1997, CLIM DYNAM, V13, P103 KROL MS, 2001, PHYS CHEM EARTH PT B, V26, P529 KROL MS, 2005, ADV GLOBAL CHANGE RE, V20, P119 LEHNER B, 2001, 5 U KASS CTR ENV SYT LOUCKS DP, 2000, WATER INT, V25, P3 MAGALHAES AR, 1988, IMPACT CLIMATIC VARI, V2, P273 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 PAHLWOSTL C, 2002, INTEGRATED ASSESSMEN, V2, P239 ROECKNER E, 1996, 218 MPI SHUTTLEWORTH WJ, 1985, Q J ROY METEOR SOC, V111, P839 TURNER BL, 2003, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V100, P8074 TURNER BL, 2003, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V100, P8080 VANDEGIESEN N, 2002, ADV GLOB CHANGE RES, V10, P151 VOROSMARTY CJ, 2000, SCIENCE, V289, P284 WERNER PC, 1997, CLIMATE RES, V8, P171 NR 37 TC 0 J9 J HYDROL BP 417 EP 431 PY 2006 PD SEP 15 VL 328 IS 3-4 GA 086YO UT ISI:000240709400004 ER PT J AU Ebi, KL Lewis, ND Corvalan, C TI Climate variability and change and their potential health effects in small island states: Information for adaptation planning in the health sector SO ENVIRONMENTAL HEALTH PERSPECTIVES LA English DT Article C1 LLC, EES, Alexandria, VA 22304 USA. EW Ctr, Honolulu, HI USA. WHO, Dept Publ Hlth & Environm, CH-1211 Geneva, Switzerland. RP Ebi, KL, LLC, EES, 5249 Tancreti Lane, Alexandria, VA 22304 USA. AB Small island states are likely the countries most vulnerable to climate variability and long-term climate change. Climate models suggest that small island states will experience warmer temperatures and changes in rainfall, sod moisture budgets, prevailing winds (speed and direction), and patterns of wave action. El Nino events likely will strengthen short-term and interannual climate variations. In addition, global mean sea level is projected to increase by 0.09-0.88 m by 2100, with variable effects on regional and local sea level. To better understand the potential human health consequences of these projected changes, a series of workshops and a conference organized by the World Health Organization, in partnership with the World Meteorological Organization and the United Nations Environment Programme, addressed the following issues: the current distribution and burden of climate-sensitive diseases in small island states, the potential future health impacts of climate variability and change, the interventions currently used to reduce the burden of climate-sensitive diseases, additional interventions that are needed to adapt to current and future health impacts, and the health implications of climate variability and change in other sectors. Information on these issues is synthesized and key recommendations are identified for improving the capacity of the health sector to anticipate and prepare for climate variability and change in small island states. CR 2003, SMALL ISLAND DEV STA *UN, 2003, WORLD STAT POCK SMAL *WHO, 2000, WHOSDEOEH011 *WHO, 2001, MAD COMM HLTH ISL MA *WHO, 2002, WORLD HLTH REP 2002 *WHO, 2003, SYNTH WORKSH CLIM CH *WORLD BANK, 2000, CIT SEAS STORMS MAN ALBRITTON DL, 2001, TECHNICAL SUMMARY WO ARON JL, 2003, INF AD PLANN HLTH SE BROWN BE, 1990, CORAL REEFS, V8, P163 BUAN RD, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE VARIA, P41 FALCAM L, 2001, HONOLULU ADVERT 0812 GLANTZ MH, 1996, CURRENTS CHANGE NINO HAJAT S, 2003, APPL ENV SCI PUBLIC, V1, P13 HAMNETT MP, 1998, PACIFIC ENSO APPL CT, P1 LAL M, 2002, CLIMATE RES, V19, P179 MEEHL GA, 1996, WATER AIR SOIL POLL, V92, P203 MEEHL GA, 1997, OCEAN COAST MANAGE, V37, P137 NICHOLLS RJ, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGES INT, P92 NURSE LA, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, P844 ROPELEWSKI CF, 1987, MON WEATHER REV, V115, P1606 ROYER JF, 1998, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V38, P307 SCHMIDT CW, 2005, ENVIRON HEALTH PERSP, V113, A606 SPENNEMANN DHR, 1995, DISASTERS, V19, P194 WATSON RT, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, V1, P1 NR 25 TC 1 J9 ENVIRON HEALTH PERSPECT BP 1957 EP 1963 PY 2006 PD DEC VL 114 IS 12 GA 112BN UT ISI:000242500200047 ER PT J AU Patwardhan, A Sharma, U TI Improving the methodology for assessing natural hazard impacts SO GLOBAL AND PLANETARY CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 Indian Inst Technol, Shailesh J Mehta Sch Management, Bombay 400076, Maharashtra, India. RP Patwardhan, A, Indian Inst Technol, Shailesh J Mehta Sch Management, Bombay 400076, Maharashtra, India. AB The impacts of natural hazards such as cyclones have been conventionally measured through changes in human, social and economic capital, typically represented by stock variables such as population, built property and public infrastructure, livestock, agricultural land, etc. This paper develops an alternative approach that seeks to detect and quantify impacts as changes in flow variables. In particular, we explore whether changes in annual agricultural output, when measured at an appropriate spatial level, could be used to measure impacts associated with tropical cyclones in coastal regions of India. We believe that such an approach may have a number of benefits from a policy perspective, particularly with regard to the debate between relief versus recovery as disaster management strategies. A focus on flow variables is also likely to be more relevant and useful in developing countries; the maintenance of economic activity directly affects livelihood and is perhaps of greater importance than loss of built property or other physical capital. (c) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. CR *IMD, 1996, TRACKS STORMS DEPR B *UNECLAC, 2002, MAN EST SOC EFF NAT ADGER WN, 2003, MEASURING ENHANCING DIAZ HF, HURRICANES CLIMATE S PARSURAMAN S, 2000, INDIAN DISASTERS REP PIELKE RA, 1997, HURRICANES THEIR NAT PIELKE RA, 1998, WEATHER FORECAST 2, V13, P621 WAKIMOTO RM, 1994, B AM METEOROL SOC, V75, P189 WALTER J, 2001, WORLD DIS REP INT FE NR 9 TC 0 J9 GLOBAL PLANET CHANGE BP 253 EP 265 PY 2005 PD JUL VL 47 IS 2-4 GA 962SQ UT ISI:000231753100017 ER PT B AU Ribot, JC Magalhaes, AR Panagides, SS TI Climate Variability, Climate Change and Social Vulnerability in the Semi-arid Tropics SO CLIMATE VARIABILITY LA English DT Book AB Vulnerable populations and social equity must be firmly embedded in the science and politics of global change. Impact assessments, economic evaluations and international negotiations must be cognizant of the great disparities in livelihoods. The nuances of local vulnerability and capability must also be clearly understood. Local studies must be placed in the context of global change. At the same time, the dynamics of present resource use, social conditions, economic systems and political societies must be projected forward to match the time scale of climate change. Forecasting the evolution of vulnerable groups and regions remains one of the most perplexing issues in understanding the potential impacts of global change. The volume brings fresh insights to these issues. It firmly focuses attention on the conjunction of the driving forces of global change, resource use in the climatically marginal semi-arid regions of Africa, Asia and Latin America, and the social geography of vulnerability. CR CHAMBERS R, 1989, IDS B, V20, P1 LIVERMAN DM, 1990, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V80, P49 ROSENZWEIG C, 1994, NATURE, V367, P133 SEN AK, 1981, POVERTY FAMINES ESSA, V1, P1 WATTS MJ, 1993, PROG HUM GEOG, V17, P43 NR 4 TC 0 BP 1 EP 175 PY 1996 VL 1 ER PT J AU Krol, MS Jaeger, A Bronstert, A Krywkow, J TI The semi-arid integrated model (SIM), a regional integrated model assessing water availability, vulnerability of ecosystems and society in NE-Brazil SO PHYSICS AND CHEMISTRY OF THE EARTH PART B-HYDROLOGY OCEANS AND ATMOSPHERE LA English DT Article C1 Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res, D-14412 Potsdam, Germany. RP Krol, MS, Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res, POB 601203, D-14412 Potsdam, Germany. AB Northeastern Brazil, an example of vulnerable semi-arid regions on the earth, is characterised by water scarcity and vulnerability of natural resources, pronounced climatic variability and social stress situations. Integrated studies involving hydrology, ecology, meteorology, climatology, pedology, agronomy, and social and economic sciences are required not only for analysing consequences of the adverse natural conditions but also to assess possible strategies to make semi-arid regions less vulnerable to the present and changing climate. Integrated modelling of the relationships between water availability, quality of life and migration, including aspects of global change processes, in the Semi-arid Integrated Model (SIM) serves to understand the dynamics of the system. An overview of the concept, structure and application results of the integrated model are given. A sensitivity study on climate change illustrates potentially significant adverse effects on the region. Moreover, it shows that a regional integrated model is a suitable tool for complex and interdisciplinary studies. The present version of SIM still is in a development phase, especially in its representation of socio-economic processes. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. CR ALCAMO J, 1994, WATER AIR SOIL POLL, V76, P1 BRONSTERT A, 2000, IN PRESS PHYSICS CHE COHEN SJ, 1997, MACKENZIE BASIN IMPA EDMONDS JA, 1994, PNL9798 GCAM EDMONDS JA, 1994, UC402 GCAM PAC NW LA MAGALHAES AR, 1988, IMPACT CLIMATIC VARI, V2, P273 ROSENBERG NJ, 1993, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V24, P1 ROTMANS J, 1997, PERSPECTIVES GLOBAL TOTH FL, 1997, P IPCC AS PAC WORKSH NR 9 TC 1 J9 PHYS CHEM EARTH P B-HYDROL OC BP 529 EP 533 PY 2001 VL 26 IS 7-8 GA 450YA UT ISI:000169771400006 ER PT J AU Collet, S TI Appropriation of marine resources: from management to an ethical approach to fisheries governance SO SOCIAL SCIENCE INFORMATION SUR LES SCIENCES SOCIALES LA English DT Article C1 Univ Hamburg, Inst Ethnol, Hamburg, Germany. RP Collet, S, Alte Rabenstr 8, D-20148 Hamburg, Germany. AB The new historical fragility or. vulnerability of marine resources and ecosystems, induced by the industrialization process of "fishing down the food webs", calls for a postmodern governance paradigm aimed at. rebuilding the generative capacity of marine ecosystems so as to restore their, resilience. In a highly turbulent and bleak context, this daunting task cannot ignore the 'ethical dimension', defined as,the setting. in order, the regulation of the human Power to act in non-egalitarian. and asymmetrical contexts. This process of rearrangement of the modes of use. of the res. halieutica requires crafting new harmonious relationships with, the marine environment, by retailoring the space of the commons, Giving for keeping and the Noun graph suggest a design for a postmodern pathway to healthy fisheries which is particularly well-suited to the Mediterranean Sea. CR *COMM EUR COMM, 2001, COM, V135 *FAO, 1995, COD COND RESP FISH *WHAT, 2000, GOV SUST FUT, V2 ACHESON JM, 1998, LINKING SOCIAL ECOLO, P390 ARREGINSANCHEZ F, 2001, EC FISHERIES COOP B, V14, P4 ARROW K, 1990, EC SOCIOLOGY REDEFIN, P133 CALLICOTT JB, 1987, COMPANION SAND COUNT CALLICOTT JB, 1996, EARTH SUMMIT ETHICS CAMPBELL J, 1988, POWER MYTH CHARLES AT, 1998, REINVENTING FISHERIE, V23, P101 COLLET S, 1985, ANTHR MARITIME, V2, P41 COLLET S, 1989, UOMINI PESCE CACCIA COLLET S, 1991, DICT ETHNOLOGIE ANTH, P569 COLLET S, 1991, SOC SCI INFORM, V30, P483 COLLET S, 1992, ANTHR MARITIME, V4, P181 COLLET S, 1995, SOC SCI INFORM, V34, P107 COLLET S, 1998, ALTERNATIVE MANAGEME, P117 COLLET S, 1999, ANTR PESCA DEBATES M, P59 COLLET S, 2001, DROITS PROPRIETE EC, P285 COLLINS AC, 1999, NEOTROP PRIMATES NEW, V7, P39 COPES P, 1998, ALTERNATIVES FISHERI, P1 CORDELL J, 1989, SEA SMALL BOATS COWARD H, 2000, 23 MEM U NEWF SOC EC DESCLERS S, 13 ACP EU ENGELHARDT MT, 1986, FDN BIOETHICS FROESE R, ICES J MARINE SCI GARCIA S, 1997, GLOBAL TRENDS FISHER, P3 GARCIA SM, 1994, MAR POLLUT BULL, V29, P528 GARCIA SM, 1999, SUSTAINABLE AGR SOLU, P267 GUDEMAN S, 1992, AM ETHNOL, V19, P139 HAGGAN N, 1998, BACK FUTURE RECONSTR, V6, P8 HANNA SS, 1995, PROPERTY RIGHTS ENV, P15 HARDIN G, 1968, SCIENCE, V162, P1243 HOLDEN M, 1994, COMMON FISHERIES POL HOLLING CS, 1986, SUSTAINABLE DEV BIOS, V1, P1 JOHANNES RE, 1978, ANNU REV ECOL SYST, V9, P348 JONAS H, 1984, IMPERATIVE RESPONSIB KOOIMAN J, 1993, MODERN GOVERNANCE, P35 KOOIMAN J, 2000, PUBLIC MANAGEMENT, V1, P67 LANTIS M, 1938, AM ANTHROPOL, V40, P439 LARKIN PA, 1996, REV FISH BIOL FISHER, V6, P139 LEOPOLD A, 1949, SAND COUNTY ALMANAC LUDWIG D, 1993, SCIENCE, V260, P17 NORTH DC, 1996, EMPIRICAL STUDIES I, P342 OSTROM E, 1990, GOVERNING COMMONS EV PAULY D, 1998, SCIENCE, V279, P860 PAULY D, 2000, ICES J MAR SCI, V57, P697 ROBERTS CM, 1999, ACP EU FISHERIES RES, V5, P37 ROBERTS CM, 2001, SCIENCE, V294, P1920 SALONEN A, 1970, FISCHEREI ALTEN MESO SCOTT A, 1999, FISH RIGHTS 99 WORLD SEVE B, 1993, AUX FONDEMENTS ETHIQ, P107 SINCLAIR PR, 1996, SOCIOL RURALIS, V36, P224 SMITH A, 1790, THEORY MORAL SENTIME SMITH ME, 1991, MAST, V3, P1 STERGIOU KI, 2002, FISH RES, V55, P1 TUDELA S, 2002, SAMUDRA REPORTS, V32, P9 WATSON R, 2001, NATURE, V414, P534 WEBER J, 1993, GESTION RELATIONS SO WILSON JA, 1994, MAR POLICY, V18, P291 NR 60 TC 0 J9 SOC SCI INFORM BP 531 EP 553 PY 2002 PD DEC VL 41 IS 4 GA 632CR UT ISI:000180206600002 ER PT J AU Eakin, H Luers, AL TI Assessing the vulnerability of social-environmental systems SO ANNUAL REVIEW OF ENVIRONMENT AND RESOURCES LA English DT Review C1 Univ Calif Santa Barbara, Dept Geog, Santa Barbara, CA 93106 USA. Union Concerned Sci, Global Environm Program, Berkeley, CA 94704 USA. RP Eakin, H, Univ Calif Santa Barbara, Dept Geog, Santa Barbara, CA 93106 USA. AB In this review, we highlight new insights into the conceptualization of the vulnerability of social-environmental systems and identify critical points of convergence of what otherwise might be characterized as disparate fields of research. We argue that a diversity of approaches to studying vulnerability is necessary in order to address the full complexity of the concept and that the approaches are in large part complementary. An emerging consensus on the issues of critical importance to vulnerability reduction-including concerns of equity and social justice-and growing synergy among conceptual frameworks promise even greater relevancy and utility for decision makers in the near future. We synthesize the current literature with an outline of core assessment components and key questions to guide the trajectory of future research. 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P1 CARPENTER SR, 2001, ECOSYSTEMS, V4, P765 CARPENTER SR, 1999, ECOL APPL, V9, P751 CASH DW, 2000, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V10, P109 CHAPIN FS, 2004, AMBIO, V33, P344 CHRISTENSEN L, 2004, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V63, P351 CLARK WC, 2000, 200012 HARV U ENV NA CUTTER SL, 1996, PROG HUM GEOG, V20, P529 CUTTER SL, 2000, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V90, P713 CUTTER SL, 2003, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V93, P1 CUTTER SL, 2003, SOC SCI QUART, V84, P242 DESSAI S, 2004, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V64, P11 DOW KM, 2006, FAIRNESS ADAPTATION, P77 DOWNING TE, 2001, LECT NOTES ARTIF INT, P198 DOWNING TE, 2004, VULERNABILITY ASSESS EAKIN H, 2003, J ENV DEVC, V12, P414 EAKIN H, 2005, WORLD DEV, V33, P1923 EASTERLING WE, 1996, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V80, P1 ELLEMORE H, 2005, ENV HAZARDS, V6, P1 FOLKE C, 2002, AMBIO, V31, P437 FORBES BC, 2004, AMBIO, V33, P377 GUNDERSON LH, 2002, PANARCHY UNDERSTANDI, V1, P1 HANDMER J, 1999, MITIGATION ADAPTATIO, V4, P267 HEWITT K, 1983, INTERPRETATIONS CALA HOLLING CS, 1973, ANNUAL REV ECOLOGY S, V4, P1 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RESOUR BP 365 EP 394 PY 2006 VL 31 GA 109QZ UT ISI:000242324900013 ER PT J AU Celico, F Naclerio, G TI Verification of a DRASTIC-based method for limestone aquifers SO WATER INTERNATIONAL LA English DT Article C1 Univ Molise, Isernia, Italy. RP Celico, F, Univ Molise, Isernia, Italy. AB A hydrogeological and microbiological study was carried out in Italy in order to verify the effectiveness of a DRASTIC-based method for groundwater vulnerability assessment in carbonate (fractured-karstified) aquifers. The research was developed: (a) by the monitoring of microbial contamination of two springs from January to July 2001 and from December 2002 to March 2003; and (b) by column tests in intact soil blocks, utilizing a collection strain of Enterococcus faecalis. The comparison of the vulnerability map with the results of the microbiological experiments demonstrated the effectiveness of the new DRASTIC-based method as a predictor of groundwater microbial contamination in carbonate aquifers. The effectiveness of the new proposed approach was verified and highlights the diversified role of the diffuse infiltration of precipitations through the fracture pattern and the more or less concentrated infiltration of surface water in karst areas. CR *FAO, 1988, 60 FAO ALLER L, 1987, EPA600285018 BONI C, 1982, GEOL APPL IDROGEOL, V17, P437 BOYER DG, 1999, J AM WATER RESOUR AS, V35, P291 CAVALLIN A, 1992, MEMORIE SOC GEOLOGIC, V45, P325 CELICO F, 1996, QUADERNI GEOLOGIA AP, V1, P93 CELICO F, 1998, P 28 IAH C GAMBL GRO, P475 CELICO F, 2000, HYDROGEOLOGY, V4, P39 CELICO F, 2002, P INT S SUBS MICR, P84 CELICO F, 2004, ENVIRON GEOL, V46, P233 CIVITA M, 1994, CARTE VULNERABILITA DECORSO S, 1998, B SOC GEOL ITAL, V117, P419 FREEZE RA, 1979, GROUNDWATER GANNON JT, 1991, SOIL BIOL BIOCHEM, V23, P1155 GERBA CP, 1985, GROUNDWATER QUALITY, P54 LOBOFERREIRA JP, 1993, 19493 DEV INVENTORY MCMURRY SW, 1998, J ENVIRON QUAL, V27, P86 PASQUARELL GC, 1995, J ENVIRON QUAL, V24, P959 RUPERT MG, 2001, GROUND WATER, V39, P625 SAMBROOK J, 1989, MOL CLONING LAB MANU THORNTHWAITE CW, 1957, INSTRUCTIONS TABLES TREVORS JT, 1990, APPL ENVIRON MICROB, V56, P401 WITKOWSKI AJ, 2003, ENVIRON GEOL, V44, P59 NR 23 TC 0 J9 WATER INT BP 530 EP 537 PY 2005 PD DEC VL 30 IS 4 GA 002NZ UT ISI:000234619500012 ER PT J AU Thomalla, F Downing, TE Spanger-Siegfried, E Han, GY Rockstrom, J TI Reducing hazard vulnerability: towards a common approach between disaster risk reduction and climate adaptation SO DISASTERS LA English DT Article C1 Stockholm Environm Inst, S-10314 Stockholm, Sweden. RP Thomalla, F, Stockholm Environm Inst, Lilla Nygatan 1,Box 2142, S-10314 Stockholm, Sweden. AB Over the past few decades, four distinct and largely independent research and policy communities-disaster risk reduction, climate change adaptation, environmental management and poverty reduction-have been actively engaged in reducing socio-economic vulnerability to natural hazards. However, despite the significant efforts of these communities, the vulnerability of many individuals and communities to natural hazards continues to increase considerably. In particular, it is hydro-meteorological hazards that affect an increasing number of people and cause increasingly large economic losses. Arising from the realisation that these four communities have been largely working in isolation and enjoyed only limited success in reducing vulnerability, there is an emerging perceived need to strengthen significantly collaboration and to facilitate learning and information exchange between them. This article examines key communalities and differences between the climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction communities, and proposes three exercises that would help to structure a multi-community dialogue and learning process. CR *IATF, 2004, DRAFT REP 19 SESS 7 *IFRC, 2002, WORLD DIS REP 2002 *IFRC, 2003, WORLD DIS REP 2003 *IFRC, 2004, WORLD DIS REP 2004 *IPCC, 2001, CLIM CHANG 2001 IPCC *ISDR, 2002, LIV RISK GLOB REV DI *TASK FORC CLIM CH, 2003, LIV CLIM CHANG *WORLD BANK, 2003, POV CLIM CHANG RED V BHARWANI S, 2005, PHILOS T ROY SOC B, P360 BOHLE HG, 1994, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V4, P37 KASPERSON JX, 2001, INT WORKSH VULN GLOB MECHLER R, 2002, IIASA MODEL EVALUATI PELLING M, 2003, NATURAL DISASTERS DE SPERLING F, 2005, WORLD C DIS RED KOB STEPHEN L, 2001, DISASTERS, V25, P113 TURNER BL, 2003, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V100, P8074 NR 16 TC 2 J9 DISASTERS BP 39 EP 48 PY 2006 PD MAR VL 30 IS 1 GA 017LA UT ISI:000235693900004 ER PT J AU Willett, S TI Insecurity, conflict and the new global disorder SO IDS BULLETIN-INSTITUTE OF DEVELOPMENT STUDIES LA English DT Article AB The current neoliberal preoccupation with the benefits of globalisation, which have been hailed as the great panacea for all the world's economic problems, has done little for the 1.3 billion people whose economic circumstances have stagnated or deteriorated in poverty over the last ten years. The neoliberal idea that somehow the benefits of global economic growth will 'trickle down' to the world's poor, has been challenged by the stark reality of the experience in the world's poorest societies. Deep polarisation of wealth that has become a structural feature of the global economy has been identified as one of the major threats to future peace and security in the coming millennium. Conflict theorists have for some time been at pains to point out that the unequal distribution of wealth and the failure to meet basic human needs constitute a source of structural violence that lies at the heart of the many conflicts. Endemic poverty is a basic factor that undermines human security It not only leaves basic needs unmet, but creates the conditions far conflict and violence, as groups compete for access to scarce and often diminishing resources. Facing extremes of economic deprivation and threats to basic human security (life, food, shelter, income), the widespread resort to arms within a growing number of least developed economies can be understood as a Darwinian bid for survival. 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NATURAL DISASTER - LONG-RANGE IMPACT ON HUMAN RESPONSE TO FUTURE DISASTER THREATS SO ENVIRONMENT AND BEHAVIOR LA English DT Article C1 OKLAHOMA STATE UNIV,STILLWATER,OK 74074. RP HANSON, S, MIDDLEBURY COLL,DEPT GEOG,MIDDLEBURY,VT 05753. CR *US DEP COMM, 1960, 20 WEATH BUR TECH PA *US DEP COMM, 1974, 741 SURV REP BURTON I, 1964, NATURAL RESOURCES J, V432, P413 FORM WH, 1958, COMMUNITY DISASTER KATES RW, 1971, ECON GEOGR, V47, P438 OSTBY FP, 1974, WEATHERWISE, V27, P4 OSTBY FP, 1976, WEATHERWISE, V29, P16 PEARSON AD, 1975, WEATHERWISE, V28, P4 RUFFNER JA, 1974, WEATHER ALMANAC SIMS JH, 1972, SCIENCE, V176, P1386 SLOVIC P, 1974, NATURAL HAZARDS LOCA, P187 SULLIVAN W, 1976, NY TIMES MAGAZI 0425 WEIGEL EP, 1976, NOAA, V6, P4 WHITE GF, 1975, ASSESSMENT RES NATUR, V1, P1 NR 14 TC 7 J9 ENVIRON BEHAV BP 268 EP 284 PY 1979 VL 11 IS 2 GA HA770 UT ISI:A1979HA77000008 ER PT J AU Kundzewicz, ZW TI Non-structural flood protection and sustainability SO WATER INTERNATIONAL LA English DT Article C1 Polish Acad Sci, Res Ctr Agr & Forest Environm, Poznan, Poland. RP Kundzewicz, ZW, Polish Acad Sci, Res Ctr Agr & Forest Environm, Poznan, Poland. AB In this article, flood protection is considered in the context of sustainability. On the one hand, floods destroy human heritage and jeopardize sustainable development, which can be defined as 11 non-decreasing quality of life. " On the other hand, following the most common interpretation of sustainable development, one should not choose flood protection policies that could be rated by future generations as inappropriate options of flood defense. This is how several large structural flood defenses are often viewed. Non-structural measures are in better agreement with the spirit of sustainable development, being more reversible, commonly acceptable, and environment-friendly. Among such measures are source control (watershed/landscape structure management), laws and regulations (including zoning), economic instruments, an efficient flood forecast-warning system, a system of flood risk assessment, awareness raising, flood-related data bases, etc. As flood safety cannot be reached in most vulnerable areas with the help of structural means only, further flood risk reduction via non-structural measures is usually indispensable, and a site-specific mix of structural and non-structural measures seems to be a proper solution. Since sustainabiliiy requires thinking about the future generations, the climate change issue becomes important. Non-structural measures lend themselves well to application in climate change adaptation strategies. As uncertainty in the assessment of climate change impacts is high, flexibility of adaptation strategies is particularly advantageous. CR *ENV AG UK, 1998, ACT PLAN FLOOD DEF *IFRCRCS, 1997, WORLD DIS REP 1997 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 *IPCC, 2001, CLIM CHANG 2001 SCI *IUCN, 1991, CAR EARTH STRAT SUST *WCED, 1987, OUR COMM FUT *WMO, 1995, INFOHYDRO MAN ARNELL NW, 1999, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHA S, V9, S31 BERZ G, 2001, CLIMATE 21 CENTURY C, P392 BRONSTERT A, 1996, 17 PIK BROOKS H, 1992, ATAS B, V7, P19 ENGEL H, 1997, IAHS PUBL, V239, P21 GALLOWAY GE, 1999, RIBAMOD RIVER BASIN, P235 GARDINER J, 1995, DEFENCE FLOODS FLOOD, P13 GILVEAR DJ, 1999, HYDROLOG SCI J, V44, P345 KARL TR, 1995, NATURE, V377, P217 KUNDZEWICZ ZW, 1987, IAHS PUBL, V171 KUNDZEWICZ ZW, 1997, HYDROLOG SCI J, V42, P467 KUNDZEWICZ ZW, 1999, HYDROLOG SCI J, V44, P417 KUNDZEWICZ ZW, 1999, HYDROLOG SCI J, V44, P559 KUNDZEWICZ ZW, 1999, HYDROLOG SCI J, V44, P855 KUNDZEWICZ ZW, 2000, DETECTING TREND OTHE KUNDZEWICZ ZW, 2000, WATER INT, V25, P66 KUNDZEWICZ ZW, 2001, INT J SUST DEV WORLD, V8, P290 LINS HF, 1999, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V26, P227 LOUCKS DP, 1994, P INT UNESCO S KARLS MANSELL MG, 1997, NORD HYDROL, V28, P37 NEWSON M, 1997, LAND WATER DEV SUSTA NOBILIS F, 1997, IAHS PUBL, V239 OLSEN JR, 1999, J AM WATER RESOUR AS, V35, P1509 OSBORN TJ, 2000, INT J CLIMATOL, V20, P347 PARRY ML, 2000, ASSESSMENT POTENTIAL PIELKE RA, 2000, J CLIMATE, V13, P3625 RADZIEJEWSKI M, 2000, HYDROLOG SCI J, V45, P547 ROBSON AJ, 1996, FLOOD ESTIMATION HDB TAKEUCHI K, 1998, IAHS PUBL, V251 THOMAS FH, 1995, DEFENCE FLOODS FLOOD, P257 TRENBERTH KE, 1998, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V39, P667 WILLIAMS PB, 1994, CIVIL ENG MAY, P51 NR 39 TC 1 J9 WATER INT BP 3 EP 13 PY 2002 PD MAR VL 27 IS 1 GA 549QL UT ISI:000175455700002 ER PT B AU McCarthy, JJ Canziani, OF Leary, NA Dokken, DJ White, KS TI IPCC (2001) Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation, Vulnerability: Contribution of Working Group II to the Third Assessment Report of the IPCC. SO CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 LA English DT Book AB This report examines climate change impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability across a range of systems and sectors, as was done in previous reports. Environmental, social, and economic dimensions of these issues are assessed. Efforts were made to include assessments on sustainable development, equity, scientific uncertainties, costing methodologies, and decisionmaking frameworks. Understanding the determinants of adaptive capacity has advanced and comfirms the conclusion that developing countries, particularly the least developed countries, have lesser capacity to adapt than do developed countries. This condition contributes to relatively high vulnerability to damagin effects of climate change in these countries. CR ADGER WN, 1999, WORLD DEV, V27, P249 ADGER WN, 1999, J DEV STUD, V35, P96 BLAIKIE PM, 1994, RISK NATURAL HAZARDS, V1, P1 BOHLE HG, 1994, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V4, P37 BURTON I, 1978, ENV HAZARD, V1, P1 BURTON I, 1997, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V20, P1 CHAPIN FS, 1995, ECOLOGY, V76, P694 DOW KM, 1992, GEOFORUM, V23, P417 DOWNING TE, 1997, GLOBAL CHANGE, V2, P19 DOWNING TE, 1991, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V1, P365 EASTERLING WE, 1996, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V80, P1 HOLLING CS, 1992, ECOL MONOGR, V62, P447 HULME M, 1999, NATURE, V397, P688 KASPERSON JX, 1995, REGIONS RISK, V1, P1 KATES RW, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P5 KLEIN RJT, 1998, GEOGR J 3, V164, P259 MENDELSOHN R, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P553 NICHOLLS RJ, 1999, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V9, PS69 PARRY ML, 1999, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHA S, V9, S1 PETERSON GD, 1998, ECOSYSTEMS, V1, P6 REILLY JM, 1999, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V43, P745 REILLY JM, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P253 ROOT TL, 1995, SCIENCE, V269, P334 ROSENBERG NJ, 1992, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V21, P385 SCHNEIDER SH, 1998, J RISK RES, V1, P165 SCHNEIDER SH, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P203 SMIT B, 1996, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V33, P7 SMIT B, 1999, MITIGATION ADAPTATIO, V4, P199 SMIT B, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P223 SMITH JB, 1997, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V7, P251 SMITHERS J, 1997, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V7, P129 TOL RSJ, 1998, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V8, P109 TURNER BL, 1990, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V1, P14 WATSON RT, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, V1, P1 WATSON RT, 1998, REGIONAL IMPACTS CLI, V1, P1 NR 35 TC 0 BP 1 EP 89 PY 2001 VL 1 ER PT J AU Berkhout, F TI Rationales for adaptation in EU climate change policies SO CLIMATE POLICY LA English DT Article C1 Vrije Univ Amsterdam, Inst Environm Studies, NL-1081 HV Amsterdam, Netherlands. RP Berkhout, F, Vrije Univ Amsterdam, Inst Environm Studies, De Boelelaan 1087, NL-1081 HV Amsterdam, Netherlands. AB This article sets out a series of rationales for public policy related to adaptation to the impacts of climatic change in the EU. It begins by arguing that both mitigation and adaptation are necessary parts of a coordinated policy response to the problem of climatic change, However, the 'problem structure' of adaptation is significantly different from that of mitigation. For instance, adaptation may generate private benefits that are likely to be experienced over the short term, relative to benefits associated with the impacts of mitigation actions which are public and experienced over the longer term. This divergence influences public policy rationales for adaptation and poses challenges for the integration of mitigation and adaptation in climate policies. Five key challenges facing climate adaptation are identified, and these are used as a basis for proposing rationales for policy action on climate adaptation. These relate to: information provision and research; early warning and disaster relief, facilitating adaptation options; regulating the distributional impacts of adaptation; and regulating infrastructures. The article concludes by arguing that the real integration problem for adaptation policy relates to how it is embedded in sectoral policies such as agriculture and transport, rather than how to achieve integration with mitigation policies. CR *CEC, 2005, 200535 COM CEC MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 *IPCC, 2001, CLIM CHANG 2001 SYNT *UNEP, 2004, EARL WARN EM ENV THR, V2 ADGER WN, 2004, 7 UEA TYND CTR ADGER WN, 2003, ECON GEOGR, V79, P387 ARNELL NW, 1998, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V39, P83 BERKHOUT F, 2004, 47 UEA TYND CTR CLIM EASTERLING WE, 2004, COPING GLOBAL CLIMAT FOLKE C, 2002, RESILIENCE SUSTAINAB FUKUI H, 1979, P WORLD CLIM C GEN, P426 HERTIN J, 2003, BUILD RES INF, V31, P278 HEWITT K, 1971, HAZARDOUSNESS PLACE HULME M, 2002, UKCIP02 U E ANGL SCH KLEIN RJT, 1997, FCCCTP19973 UNFCC SE MADDISON D, 2001, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V49, P193 MENDELSOHN R, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P553 MEYER WB, 1998, HUMAN CHOICE CLIMATE, V3, P217 MORTIMORE MJ, 1989, ADAPTING DROUGHT FAR PARRY ML, 1986, SUSTAINABLE DEV BIOS, P378 RAYNER S, 1998, HUMAN CHOICE CLIMATE, V3 ROSENZWEIG C, 1994, NATURE, V367, P133 SMIT B, 2003, CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPT, P9 TOL RSJ, 1998, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V8, P109 TURNER BL, 2003, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V100, P8074 WARRICK RA, 1986, GREENHOUSE EFFECT CL, P393 WILBANKS TJ, 2003, INTEGRATING MITIGATI NR 27 TC 0 J9 CLIM POLICY BP 377 EP 391 PY 2005 VL 5 IS 3 GA 991UN UT ISI:000233839700010 ER PT J AU Navarro, L TI Exploring the environmental and political dimensions of poverty: the cases of the cities of Mar del Plata and Necochea-Quequen SO ENVIRONMENT AND URBANIZATION LA English DT Article C1 Univ Coll London, Dev Planning Unit, London WC1E 6BT, England. RP Navarro, L, Natl Univ Mar Plata, Fac Architecture Ubanism & Design, CIAM, Environm Res Ctr, Mar Del Plata, Argentina. AB This paper presents a framework to show how information drawn from differ ent sources for any city allows the construction of poverty profiles and maps. These not only help local governments to act bur they also provide a catalyst for more participatory and integrated approaches to poverty reduction. The paper also gives examples of how this framework was used in two cities in Argentina. This framework brings out the multi-dimensional nature of urban poverty, including environmental and political dimensions which ave nor made evident by conventional definitions of poverty. the framework also highlights the complex linkages between the different dimensions and shows how the environmental dimensions (including housing conditions) are not just visible features of poverty but also key "entry points" through which social, economic and political dimensions can be understood and addressed. Mapping environmental conditions also brings out key social and spatial inequalities. 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US Geol Survey, Great Lakes Sci Ctr, Ann Arbor, MI 48105 USA. US Geol Survey, Ft Collins Sci Ctr, Ft Collins, CO 80526 USA. US Geol Survey, Glacier Natl Pk Headquaters, W Glacier, MT 59936 USA. US Geol Survey, Ft Collins Sci Ctr, Ft Collins, CO 80523 USA. Colorado State Univ, Nat Resource Ecol Lab, Ft Collins, CO 80523 USA. Calif State Univ Los Angeles, Dept Geol & Environm Sci, Chico, CA 95929 USA. US Geol Survey, Alaska Sci Ctr, Anchorage, AK 99503 USA. US Geol Survey, Ft Collins Sci Ctr, Jemez Mt Field Stn, Los Alamos, NM 87544 USA. US Forest Serv, Pacific NW Res Stn, Seattle, WA USA. Nat Resources Consultants Inc, Seattle, WA 98119 USA. RP Burkett, VR, US Geol Survey, Natl Wetlands Res Ctr, 700 Cajundome Blvd, Lafayette, LA 70506 USA. AB Many biological, hydrological, and geological processes are interactively linked in ecosystems. These ecological phenomena normally vary within bounded ranges, but rapid, nonlinear changes to markedly different conditions can be triggered by even small differences if threshold values arc exceeded. Intrinsic and extrinsic ecological thresholds can lead to effects that cascade among systems, precluding accurate modeling and prediction of system response to climate change. Ten case studies from North America illustrate how charges in climate can lead to rapid, threshold-type responses within ecological communities;, the case studies also highlight the role of human activities that alter the rate or direction of system response to climate change. Understanding and anticipating nonlinear dynamics are important aspects of adaptation planning since responses of biological resources to changes in the physical climate system are not necessarily proportional and sometimes, as in the case of complex ecological systems, inherently nonlinear. Published by Elsevier B.V. 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NR 0 TC 0 J9 WATER AIR SOIL POLLUT BP R7 EP R7 PY 1996 PD SEP VL 92 IS 1-2 GA VM538 UT ISI:A1996VM53800001 ER PT J AU Ohlson, DW McKinnon, GA Hirsch, KG TI A structured decision-making approach to climate change adaptation in the forest sector SO FORESTRY CHRONICLE LA English DT Article C1 Nat Resources Canada, Canadian Climate Impacts & Adaptat Res Network Fo, No Forestry Ctr, Edmonton, AB T6H 3S5, Canada. Compass Resource Management Ltd, Vancouver, BC V6B 2S8, Canada. Nat Resources Canada, Canadian Forest Serv, No Forestry Ctr, Edmonton, AB T6H 3S5, Canada. RP McKinnon, GA, Nat Resources Canada, Canadian Climate Impacts & Adaptat Res Network Fo, No Forestry Ctr, Edmonton, AB T6H 3S5, Canada. AB Climate change presents a risk to the composition, health, and vitality of Canada's forests and forest sector. Effects may be either negative or positive, and will interact in complex ways over many spatial and temporal scales depending on such factors as physical geography, forest type, and forest management practices. Given the apparent vulnerability of forests and the forest sector to climate change, it is prudent that forest and forest-based community managers begin to develop adaptive strategies to minimize the risks and maximize the benefits of climate change. A flexible planning framework that incorporates key principles of structured decision-making and risk management is presented as a practical way to integrate climate change adaptation into forest management planning. CR *CLIM CHANG IMP AD, 2004, CLIM CHANG IMP AD CA *STAND SEN COMM AG, 2003, CLIM CHANG WE AR RIS AHMAD QK, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, CH2 BELL ML, 2001, J MULTICRITERIA DECI, V10, P229 BROOKS N, 2003, 38 TYND CTR CLIM CHA COHEN SJ, 1998, HDB METHODS CLIMATE, CH2 DAVIDSON DJ, 2003, CAN J FOREST RES, V33, P2252 EASTERLING WE, 2004, COPING GLOBAL CLIMAT FEENSTRA JF, 1998, HDB METHODS CLIMATE GAUTHIER S, 2004, P WORKSH HELD QUEB C HAUER G, 2001, NORX373 CAN FOR SERV HOUGHTON JT, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 LIM B, 2003, ADAPTATION POLICY FR SCOTT D, 2002, GLOBAL ECOL BIOGEOGR, V11, P475 SMIT B, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, CH18 SMIT B, 2002, ENHANCING CAPACITY D SPITTELHOUSE DL, 2003, BC J ECOSYSTEMS MANA, V4 TURNER BL, 2003, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V100, P8074 WILLOWS RI, 2003, CLIMATE ADAPTATION R NR 19 TC 4 J9 FOREST CHRON BP 97 EP 103 PY 2005 PD JAN-FEB VL 81 IS 1 GA 911MH UT ISI:000228006400035 ER PT J AU Brooks, N Adger, WN Kelly, PM TI The determinants of vulnerability and adaptive capacity at the national level and the implications for adaptation SO GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS LA English DT Article C1 Univ E Anglia, Tyndall Ctr Climate Change Res, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. Univ E Anglia, CSERGE, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. Univ E Anglia, Climat Res Unit, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. RP Brooks, N, Univ E Anglia, Tyndall Ctr Climate Change Res, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. AB We present a set of indicators of vulnerability and capacity to adapt to climate variability, and by extension climate change, derived using a novel empirical analysis of data aggregated at the national level on a decadal timescale. The analysis is based on a conceptual framework in which risk is viewed in terms of outcome, and is a function of physically defined climate hazards and socially constructed vulnerability. Climate outcomes are represented by mortality from climate-related disasters, using the emergency events database data set, statistical relationships between mortality and a shortlist of potential proxies for vulnerability are used to identify key vulnerability indicators. We find that 11 key indicators exhibit a strong relationship with decadally aggregated mortality associated with climate-related disasters. Validation of indicators, relationships between vulnerability and adaptive capacity, and the sensitivity of subsequent vulnerability assessments to different sets of weightings are explored using expert judgement data, collected through a focus group exercise. The data are used to provide a robust assessment of vulnerability to climate-related mortality at the national level, and represent an entry point to more detailed explorations of vulnerability and adaptive capacity. They indicate that the most vulnerable nations are those situated in sub-Saharan Africa and those that have recently experienced conflict. Adaptive capacity-one element of vulnerability-is associated predominantly with governance, civil and political rights, and literacy. (C) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 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Univ Southampton, Tyndall Ctr Climate Change Res, Southampton SO17 1BJ, Hants, England. Univ Hamburg, Res Unit Sustainabil & Global Change, Ctr Marine & Atmospher Sci, D-20146 Hamburg, Germany. Free Univ Amsterdam, Inst Environm Studies, NL-1081 HV Amsterdam, Netherlands. Carnegie Mellon Univ, Dept Engn & Publ Policy, Pittsburgh, PA 15213 USA. RP Nicholls, RJ, Univ Southampton, Sch Civil Engn & Environm, Southampton SO17 1BJ, Hants, England. AB Taking the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) climate and socio-economic,scenarios (A1FI, A2, B1 and B2 'future worlds'), the potential impacts of sea-level rise through the twenty-first century are explored using complementary impact and economic analysis methods at the global scale. These methods have never been explored together previously. In all scenarios, the exposure and hence the impact potential due to increased flooding)by sea-level rise increases significantly compared to the base year (1990). While mitigation reduces impacts, due to the lagged response of sea-level rise to atmospheric temperature rise, impacts cannot be avoided during the twenty-first century by this response alone. Cost-benefit analyses suggest that widespread protection will be an economically rational response to land loss due to sea-level rise in the four SRES futures that are considered. The most vulnerable future worlds to sea-level rise appear to be the A2 and B2 scenarios, which primarily reflects differences in the socio-economic situation (coastal population, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and GDP/capita), rather than the magnitude of sea-level rise. Small islands and deltaic settings stand out as being more vulnerable as shown in many earlier analyses. Collectively, these results suggest that human societies will have more choice in how they respond to sea-level rise than is often assumed. However, this conclusion needs to be tempered by recognition that we still do not understand these choices and significant impacts remain possible. Future worlds which experience larger rises in sea-level than considered here (above 35 cm), more extreme events, a reactive rather than proactive approach to adaptation, and where GDP growth is slower or more unequal than in the SRES futures remain a concern. There is considerable scope for further research to better understand these diverse issues. 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RP Schilderman, T, Schumacher Ctr Technol & Dev, Intermediate Technol Dev Grp, Rugby CV23 9QZ, England. AB Natural disasters are on the increase, not so much because natural hazards are growing in number, but because poor people are becoming more vulnerable. Vulnerability is as important a cause of disasters as the physical events that trigger them. Poor people's vulnerability is often increased when development goes wrong. Thus, development is a contributing factor in the occurrence and scale of disasters. At the same time, disasters, when they happen, cause serious setbacks to development. To get out of the vicious circle, more attention will have to be paid to mitigation and tackling the causes of vulnerability. Formal approaches to mitigation, initiated mainly by the public sector, have often been inefficient and at times have left people more vulnerable. A successful alternative approach, community-based disaster mitigation, can reduce vulnerability by engaging popular approaches, local knowledge and social capital, whilst addressing their weaknesses. Some examples of community-based mitigation are derived as lessons: learn from the past, build relations with communities, encourage participation, involve local builders and artisans, build local capacity, document and share lessons, and influence formal education. 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Marxism, nature and actor-networks SO ANTIPODE LA English DT Review C1 Univ Manchester, Sch Geog, Manchester M13 9PL, Lancs, England. RP Castree, N, Univ Manchester, Sch Geog, Manchester M13 9PL, Lancs, England. AB This paper stages an encounter between two critical approaches that have been central to the recent "greening" of left geography. The theoretical and normative claims of the first approach, eco-Marxism, have been subject to sometimes biting criticism from advocates of the second approach, actor-network theory (ANT). Taking a non-orthodox Marxist perspective, I argue that the ANT critique of political economy approaches to nature is overstated and only partly defensible. By distinguishing between different modalities of eco-Marxism and ANT, I show the seeming standoff between the two approaches to society-nature relations to be false. Splitting the difference between a weak version of ANT and a relational version of eco-Marxism yields a political economy approach to socionature that arguably avoids the excesses of strong modalities of ANT and dualistic forms of eco-Marxism. By seeking to bridge the apparent gap between Marxism and ANT, the paper avoids reducing either approach to society-nature relations to one fixed position or theoretical-normative "essence". Instead, a particular modality of ANT is used to address the weaknesses of certain extant versions of eco-Marxism. The resulting synthesis offers conceptual tools with which Marxists can still critique a pervasive mode of human relationality to nature-namely, capitalist-while multiplying the actors and complicating the politics involved in approaching the society-environment nexus. 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Univ Washington, Sch Aquat & Fisheries Sci, Seattle, WA 98195 USA. RP Field, JC, NOAA, Santa Cruz Lab, SW Fisheries Sci Ctr, NMFS, 110 Shaffer Rd, Santa Cruz, CA 95062 USA. AB Recognizing that all management decisions have impacts on the ecosystem being exploited, an ecosystem-based approach to management seeks to better inform these decisions with knowledge of ecosystem structure, processes and functions. For marine fisheries in the California Current, along the West Coast of North America, such an approach must take into greater consideration the constantly changing climate-driven physical and biological interactions in the ecosystem, the trophic relationships between fished and unfished elements of the food web, the adaptation potential of life history diversity, and the role of humans as both predators and competitors. This paper reviews fisheries-based ecosystem tools, insights, and management concepts, and presents a transitional means of implementing an ecosystem-based approach to managing US fisheries in the California Current based on current scientific knowledge and interpretation of existing law. Published by Elsevier Ltd. 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ISI:000238810600010 ER PT J AU GROSSMANN, WD TI SOCIOECONOMIC ECOLOGICAL MODELS - CRITERIA FOR EVALUATION OF STATE-OF-THE-ART MODELS SHOWN ON 4 CASE-STUDIES SO ECOLOGICAL MODELLING LA English DT Article RP GROSSMANN, WD, ENVIRONM RES CTR LEIPZIG HALLE,INST APPL LANDSCAPE ECOL,PERMOSERSTR 15,D-04318 LEIPZIG,GERMANY. AB Integrated projects, for example, Global Change, Man and Biosphere or LTER (Long-Term Ecological Research), pose new challenges to construct large, integrated, socio-economic ecological models. Criteria to evaluate and judge models have been around for quite some time, such as quality of calibration, availability of documentation, successfully passed validations, etc. But now additional requirements have to be fulfilled, which are described here. One of the most essential issues may be the partial unpredictability inherent in almost all systems. Here a systematic, encompassing scheme is provided on how to deal with the unexpected. The requirements mentioned before and this scheme are used to evaluate four integrated socio-economic ecological case studies(1) which also involved model construction. The models were also used for predictions. The correctness of predictions and the causes for failures were, for several of these models, repeatedly and thoroughly evaluated. The case studies seem to be representative for the state of the art, also in their weaknesses. 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RP Ribot, JC, World Resources Inst, Washington, DC 20006 USA. AB The term "access" is frequently used by property and natural resource analysts without adequate definition. In this paper we develop a concept of access and examine a broad set of factors that differentiate access from property. We define access as "the ability to derive benefits from things," broadening from property's classical definition as "the right to benefit from things." Access, following this definition, is more akin to "a bundle of powers" than to property's notion of a "bundle of rights." This formulation includes a wider range of social relationships that constrain or enable benefits from resource use than property relations alone. Using this framing, we suggest a method of access analysis for identifying the constellations of means, relations, and processes that enable various actors to derive benefits from resources. Our intent is to enable scholars, planners, and policy makers to empirically,"map" dynamic processes and relationships of access. 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FOUCAULT M, 1979, DISCIPLINE PUNISH GEISLER C, 1992, AGR HUMAN VALUES, V9, P58 GEISLER C, 2000, PROPERTY VALUES ALTE GESCHIERE P, 1995, WORLD BANK WORKSH P GHANI A, 1995, PRODUCTION REPROD PR GRIFFITHS J, 1986, J LEGAL PLURALISM, V24, P1 GUHA R, 1990, UNQUIET WOOD ECOLOGI GUPTA A, 1995, AM ETHNOL, V22, P3N5 HALE CR, 1994, RESISTANCE CONTRADIC HALL S, 1980, SOCIOLOGICAL THEORIE, P305 HARRISS B, 1984, STATE MARKET STATE I HART G, 1992, WORLD DEV, V20, P809 HAY D, 1975, ALBIONS FATAL TREE C, P189 HECHT S, 1989, FATE FOREST DEV DEST HOBSBAWM E, 1983, INVENTION TRADITION HONG E, 1986, NATIVES SARAWAK SURV HOOKER MB, 1978, ADAT LAW MODERN INDO HUNT RC, 1998, MONOGRAPHS EC ANTHR, V14 HUNTSINGER L, 1995, AM INDIAN CULT RES J, V19, P155 IVES FD, 1988, G MAGOON DOWN E GAME KRUEGER AO, 1974, AM ECON REV, V64, P291 LEACH M, 1994, RAINFOREST RELATIONS LEACH M, 1999, WORLD DEV, V27, P225 LI TM, 1999, TRANSFORMING INDONES LI TM, 2000, COMP STUD SOC HIST, V42, P149 LOCKE J, 1978, PROPERTY MAINSTREATM, P15 LUKES S, 1986, POWER LUND C, 1994, ACCESS CONTROL MANAG, P10 MACPHERSON CB, 1978, PROPERTY MAINSTREAM MAGAGNA V, 1991, COMMUNITIES GRAIN RU MAINE HS, 1917, ANCIENT LAW MAMDANI M, 1996, CITIZEN SUBJECT CONT MARX K, 1964, EC PHILOS MANUSCRIPT MARX K, 1972, CRITIQUE GOTHA PROGR MARX K, 1977, K MARX SELECTED WRIT, P343 MAYER JH, 1996, TREES VS TREES I DYN MEARNS R, 1995, PEOPLE ENV AFRICA, P103 MEEK CK, 1938, LAND LAW CUSTOM COLO MEINZENDICK RS, 2002, LEGAL PLURALISM DYNA MENZIES N, 1988, HUM ECOL, V16, P361 MOORE DS, 1993, ECON GEOGR, V69, P380 MOORE SF, 1986, SOCIAL FACTS FABRICA NEALE WC, 1998, MONOGRAPHS EC ANTHR, V14, P47 NELSON R, 1986, U ILLINOIS LAW REV, V38, P361 NELSON R, 1995, PUBLIC LANDS PRIVATE NEUMANN RP, 1998, IMPOSING WILDERNESS NEWELL P, 2000, UNPUB ACCESS ENV JUS NUGENT D, 1993, AM ETHNOL, V20, P336 OSTROM E, 1990, GOVERNING COMMONS EV PADOCH C, 1982, MIGRATION ITS ALTERN PEET R, 1993, ECON GEOGR, V69, P227 PELUSO NL, 1983, MARKETS MERCHANTS FO PELUSO NL, 1992, CONSERV BIOL, V6, P210 PELUSO NL, 1992, RICH FORESTS POOR PE PELUSO NL, 1993, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V3, P199 PELUSO NL, 1995, ANTIPODE, V27, P383 PELUSO NL, 1996, BORNEO TRANSITION PE, P121 PELUSO NL, 1996, COMP STUD SOC HIST, V38, P510 PELUSO NL, 2001, J ASIAN STUD, V60, P761 PETERS P, 1994, SOC EC ANTHR NOTR DA POLANYI K, 1944, GREAT TRANSFORMATION PORTER AF, 1967, LAND ADM SARAWAK ACC POTTER L, 1987, LAND DEGRADATION SOC, P164 PROUDHON P, 1993, WHAT IS PROPERTY PULIDO L, 1994, ENVIRON PLANN A, V26, P915 RANGAN H, 1997, DEV CHANGE, V28, P71 RANGAN H, 2000, MYTHS MOVEMENTS REWR RIBOT JC, 1990, MARKETS STATES ENV P RIBOT JC, 1993, ENERG POLICY, V21, P559 RIBOT JC, 1995, WORLD DEV, V23, P1587 RIBOT JC, 1998, DEV CHANGE, V29, P307 RIBOT JC, 1999, AFRICA, V69, P24 RIBOT JC, 2000, PEOPLE PLANTS JUSTIC, P134 ROBBINS P, 2000, POLIT GEOGR, V19, P423 ROSE C, 1994, PROPERTY PERSUASION RUNGE FC, 2000, PROPERTY VALUES ALTE, P41 SABERWAL VK, 1996, CONSERV BIOL, V10, P741 SATHER C, 1990, BORNEO REV, V1, P16 SCHLAGER E, 1992, LAND ECON, V68, P249 SCHMINK M, 1987, LANDS RISK 3 WORLD L, P38 SCHMINK M, 1992, CONTESTED FRONTIERS SCHWARTZMAN S, 1992, NONTIMBER PRODUCTS T SCOTT JC, 1972, J ASIAN STUD, V23, P5 SCOTT JC, 1976, MORAL EC PEASANT REB SEN AK, 1981, POVERTY FAMINES ESSA, V1, P1 SHIPTON PM, 1992, AFRICA, V62, P307 SHIVA V, 1982, ECOLOGIST, V2, P158 SINGER JW, 2000, PROPERTY VALUES ALTE, P3 SIVARAMAKRISHNA.K, 1999, MODERN FORESTS STATE STURGEON J, 2000, MARGINALITIES PERIPH SUNDAR N, 2001, VIOLENT ENV, P328 TAWNEY RG, 1978, PROPERTY MAINSTREAM, P133 THOMPSON EP, 1975, ALBIONS FATAL TREE C, P255 THOMPSON EP, 1975, WHIGS HUNTERS ORGINS THOMPSON EP, 1991, CUSTOMS COMMON THONGCHAI W, 1994, SIAM MAPPED TSING AL, 1999, TRANSFORMING INDONES, P159 VANDERGEEST P, 1995, THEOR SOC, V24, P385 VANDERGEEST P, 1996, ENVIRON CONSERV, V23, P259 VAYDA AP, 1983, HUM ECOL, V11, P265 VONBENDABECKMAN K, 1981, J LEGAL PLURALISM, V19, P117 VONBENDABECKMAN.F, AGR QUEST C WAG THE WATTS MJ, 1983, DROUGHT HUNGER AFRIC, P171 WATTS MJ, 1983, SILENT VIOLENCE FOOD WATTS MJ, 1993, PROG HUM GEOG, V17, P43 WEBER M, 1978, EC SOC WEST P, 1982, NATURAL RESOURCE BUR WILMSEN FN, 1989, LAND FILLED FLIES PO WONG DSY, 1975, TENURE LAND DEALING YOUNG IM, 1993, KEY CONCEPTS SOCIAL, P295 NR 161 TC 2 J9 RURAL SOCIOL BP 153 EP 181 PY 2003 PD JUN VL 68 IS 2 GA 677VW UT ISI:000182830200001 ER PT J AU Blackburn, J Brocklesby, MA Crawford, S Holland, J TI Operationalising the rights agenda: Participatory rights assessment in Peru and Malawi SO IDS BULLETIN-INSTITUTE OF DEVELOPMENT STUDIES LA English DT Article C1 HelpAge Int, La Paz, Bolivia. Univ Wales Coll Cardiff, Ctr Dev Studies, Cardiff CF1 3NS, S Glam, Wales. RP Blackburn, J, HelpAge Int, La Paz, Bolivia. AB Donors and development practitioners are increasingly seeking ways to operationalise rights-based approaches to development. The Department for International Development (DFID) Participatory Rights Assessment Methodologies (PRAMs) project was conceived as one response to the challenge of putting their rights agenda into practice. PRAMs, presently being piloted in Malawi and Peru, is seen as an instrument for supporting governments, civil society and other social actors in understanding their rights and obligations and creating the institutional change necessary to ensure participation, inclusion and obligation for all human rights for all people. Emerging lessons confirm that participatory rights assessment is qualitatively different from "conventional" people-centred approaches to development initiatives, with one participant concluding: 'once you understand - really understand - that you have rights, everything changes'. CR *CDS SWANS ASS ED, 2002, PRAMS LINK PART INST *DFID, 2000, REAL HUM RIGHTS POOR *UN NAT, 2003, 2 INT AG WORKSH IMPL *UNDP, 2000, HUM RIGHTS HUM DEV *WORLD BANK, 2000, WORLD DEV REP 2000 0 BLACKBURN J, 2004, CONSULTANCY REPORT BROCKLESBY MA, 2004, OPERATIONALISING RIG BROCKLESBY MA, 2004, RIGHTSBASED DEV GUID CRAWFORD S, 2004, CONSULTANCY REPORT DEVEREUX S, 2001, FOOD SECURITY SUB SA GAVENTA J, 1999, BACKGROUND NOTE WORK GOETZ AM, 2001, 138 IDS HAUSERMANN J, 1988, HUMAN RIGHTS APPROAC LISTER R, 1998, COMMUNITY DEV J, V33, P226 MOORE M, 1999, POLITICS POVERTY BAC MOSER C, 2001, CONCEPT PAPER MOSER CON, 1998, WORLD DEV, V26, P1 NARAYAN D, 2000, VOICES POOR CRYING O SEN AK, 1981, POVERTY FAMINES ESSA, V1, P1 SEN AK, 1997, WORLD DEV, V25, P1959 SWIFT J, 1989, IDS B, V20, P8 WEBSTER N, 2002, NAME POOR CONT POL S NR 22 TC 0 J9 IDS BULL-INST DEVELOP STUD BP 91 EP + PY 2005 PD JAN VL 36 IS 1 GA 902PO UT ISI:000227369200011 ER PT J AU Huppert, HE Sparks, RSJ TI Extreme natural hazards: Population growth, globalization and environmental change SO PHILOSOPHICAL TRANSACTIONS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY A-MATHEMATICAL PHYSICAL AND ENGINEERING SCIENCES LA English DT Article C1 Ctr Math Sci, Inst Theoret Geophys, Cambridge CB3 0WA, England. Univ Bristol, Dept Earth Sci, Bristol BS8 1RJ, Avon, England. RP Huppert, HE, Ctr Math Sci, Inst Theoret Geophys, Wilberforce Rd, Cambridge CB3 0WA, England. AB Mankind is becoming ever more susceptible to natural disasters, largely as a consequence of population growth and globalization. It is likely that in the future, we will experience several disasters per year that kill more than 10 000 people. A calamity with a million casualties is just a matter of time. This situation is mainly a consequence of increased vulnerability. Climate change may also be affecting the frequency of extreme weather events as well as the vulnerability of coastal areas due to sea-level rise. Disastrous outcomes can only increase unless better ways are found to mitigate the effects through improved forecasting and warning, together with more community preparedness and resilience. There are particular difficulties with extreme events, which can affect several countries, while the largest events can have global consequences. The hazards of supervolcanic eruptions and asteroid impacts could cause global disaster with threats to civilization and deaths of billions of people. Although these are very rare events, they will happen and require consideration. More frequent and smaller events in the wrong place at the wrong time could have very large human, environmental and economic effects. A sustained effort is needed to identify places at risk and take steps to apply science before the events occur. CR 2005, ROLE SCI PHYS NATURA BASHER R, 2006, PHILOS T R SOC A, V364, P2167 BERNARDINI R, 2000, J FOURIER ANAL APPL, V6, P1 DELINGNE NI, IN PRESS GLOBAL KNOW DILLEY M, 2005, NATURAL DISASTER HOT, P132 DILLEY M, 2006, PHILOS T R SOC A, V364, P2217 FISCHETTI M, 2001, SCI AM OCT, P77 JACKSON DD, 2004, GEOPH MONOG SERIES, V150, P335 JACKSON J, 2006, PHILOS T R SOC A, V364, P1911 KANAMORI H, 2006, PHILOS T R SOC A, V364, P1927 KARL TR, 1997, SCI AM, V276, P78 KESAVAN PC, 2006, PHILOS T R SOC A, V364, P2191 LOWENSTERN JB, 2006, PHILOS T R SOC A, V364, P2055 MASSON DG, 2006, PHILOS T R SOC A, V364, P2009 MCCALLUM E, 2006, PHILOS T R SOC A, V364, P2099 MCCANN WR, 1979, PURE APPL GEOPHYS, V117, P1082 MCGUIRE WJ, 2006, PHILOS T R SOC A, V364, P1889 MITCHELL JFB, 2006, PHILOS T R SOC A, V364, P2117 MORRISON D, 2006, PHILOS T R SOC A, V364, P2041 SELF S, 2006, PHILOS T R SOC A, V364, P2073 SHAH HC, 2006, PHILOS T R SOC A, V364, P2183 SIEH K, 2006, PHILOS T R SOC A, V364, P1947 SMOLKA A, 2006, PHILOS T R SOC A, V364, P2147 SPARKS RSJ, 2004, GEOPH MONOG SERIES, V150, P359 STEIN RS, 2006, PHILOS T R SOC A, V364, P1965 SYNOLAKIS CE, 2006, PHIL T R SOC A, V364, P231 UYEDA S, 2004, GEOPH MONOG SERIES, V150, P349 WHEATER HS, 2006, PHILOS T R SOC A, V364, P2135 WOO G, 2000, MATH NATURAL CATASTR, P292 NR 29 TC 1 J9 PHILOS TRANS R SOC A BP 1875 EP 1888 PY 2006 PD AUG 15 VL 364 IS 1845 GA 075YM UT ISI:000239923700001 ER PT J AU Petrova, E TI Vulnerability of Russian regions to natural risk: experience of quantitative assessment SO NATURAL HAZARDS AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES LA English DT Article C1 Moscow MV Lomonosov State Univ, Fac Geog, Res Lab Snow Avalanches & Debris Flow, Moscow 119992, Russia. RP Petrova, E, Moscow MV Lomonosov State Univ, Fac Geog, Res Lab Snow Avalanches & Debris Flow, Moscow 119992, Russia. AB One of the important tracks leading to natural risk prevention, disaster mitigation or the reduction of losses due to natural hazards is the vulnerability assessment of an "at-risk" region. The majority of researchers propose to assess vulnerability according to an expert evaluation of several qualitative characteristics, scoring each of them usually using three ratings: low, average, and high. Unlike these investigations. we attempted a quantitative vulnerability assessment using multidimensional statistical methods. Cluster analysis for all 89 Russian regions revealed five different types of region, which are characterized with a single (rarely two) prevailing factor causing increase of vulnerability. These factors are: the sensitivity of the technosphere to unfavorable influences; a "human factor"; a high volume of stored toxic waste that increases possibility of NDs with serious consequences; the low per capita GRP, which determine reduced prevention and protection costs; the heightened liability of regions to natural disasters that can be complicated due to unfavorable social processes. The proposed methods permitted us to find differences in prevailing risk factor (vulnerability factor) for the region types that helps to show in which direction risk management should focus on. CR 1991, GLOBAL CHANGE GEOGRA *EM MIN RUSS, 1994, STAT REP RUSS MIN EM *IDNDR PROM OFF, 1994, NAT DIS WORLD STAT T *STAT STAT COMM RU, 2001, REG RUSS 2000 STAT Y CUTTER SL, 1996, PROG HUM GEOG, V20, P529 DEVIS D, 1977, STAT ANAL GEOLOGICAL GLADKEVITCH GI, 2000, LETT RUSSIAN ACAD G, V6, P57 MIAGKOV SM, 2001, SOCIAL ECOLOGY ETHNI PETROVA E, 2004, NAT HAZARD EARTH SYS, V4, P243 PETROVA EG, 1999, TYPIFICATION RUSSIAN, P87 WEICHSELGARTNER J, 2000, RISK ANAL, V2, P3 WEICHSELGARTNER J, 2001, DISASTER PREVENTION, V10, P85 NR 12 TC 0 J9 NAT HAZARDS EARTH SYST SCI BP 49 EP 54 PY 2006 VL 6 IS 1 GA 024IU UT ISI:000236189500005 ER PT J AU LIVERMAN, DM HANSON, ME BROWN, BJ MERIDETH, RW TI GLOBAL SUSTAINABILITY - TOWARD MEASUREMENT SO ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT LA English DT Editorial Material RP LIVERMAN, DM, UNIV WISCONSIN,INST ENVIRONM STUDIES,1007 WARF BLDG,MADISON,WI 53705. CR 1977, ENV MONITORING 1980, WORLD CONSERVATION S 1981, AGR 2000 1982, FPAINT153 FAO TECHN 1985, STATE ENV 1986, EARTH SYSTEM SCI PRO 1986, FEWS 1986, WORLD DEV REPORT 1986, WORLD RESOURCES 1986 1987, OUR COMMON FUTURE 1987, WORLD POPULATION DAT 1987, WORLD RESOURCES 1987 BATIE SS, 1983, SOIL EROSION CRISIS BLAIKIE PM, 1985, POLITICAL EC SOIL ER BRODSKY DA, 1981, WORLD DEV, V9, P695 BROWN BJ, 1988, ENV MGMT, V11, P713 BROWN L, 1981, BUILDING SUSTAINABLE BROWN L, 1987, STATE WORLD 1987 BRUBAKER S, 1972, LIVE EARTH MAN HIS E CHANDLER WU, 1987, STATE WORLD 1987, P177 CLARK WC, 1985, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V7, P5 CLARK WC, 1986, SUSTAINABLE DEV BIOS CLEVELAND WS, 1985, SCIENCE, V229, P823 DREWNOWSKI J, 1982, J DEV STUDIES, V8, P85 GEORGE S, 1982, FOOD BEGINNERS HEILBRONER R, 1974, INQUIRY HUMAN PROSPE HEKSTRA GP, 1986, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V9, P59 HOLLING CS, 1977, ADAPTIVE ENV ASSESSM IZRAEL YA, 1986, SUSTAINABLE DEV BIOS MALONE TF, 1986, ENVIRONMENT, V28, P39 MALONE TF, 1986, ENVIRONMENT, V28, P6 MEADOWS DH, 1972, LIMITS GROWTH MORRIS MD, 1979, MEASURING CONDITIONS MYERS N, 1986, GAIA ATLAS PLANET MA PEARSON C, 1985, BUSINESS MULTINATION REDCLIFT M, 1987, SUSTAINABLE DEV EXPL SEERS D, 1972, J DEV, V8, P22 SMITH PGR, 1987, ENVIRON MANAGE, V11, P447 STOCKING M, 1987, LAND DEGRADATION SOC THACHER PS, 1985, J INT AFFAIRS, V39, P151 WESTMAN WE, 1977, AM SCI, V65, P197 NR 41 TC 33 J9 ENVIRON MANAGE BP 133 EP 143 PY 1988 PD MAR VL 12 IS 2 GA N1525 UT ISI:A1988N152500003 ER PT J AU Yohe, GW Schlesinger, M TI The economic geography of the impacts of climate change SO JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC GEOGRAPHY LA English DT Article C1 Wesleyan Univ, Middletown, CT 06459 USA. Univ Illinois, Dept Atmospher Sci, MC 223, Urbana, IL 61801 USA. RP Yohe, GW, Wesleyan Univ, 238 Church St, Middletown, CT 06459 USA. AB Our ability to understand the geographical dispersion of the impacts of climate change has not et progressed to the point of being able to quantify costs and benefits distributed across globe along one or more climate scenarios in any meaningful way. We respond to this chaotic state of affairs by offering a brief introduction to the potential impacts of a changing climate along five geographically dispersed portraits of how the future climate might evolve and by presenting a modern approach to contemplating vulnerability to climate impacts that has been designed explicitly to reflect geographic diversity and uncertainty Three case studies are offered to provide direct evidence of the potential value of adaptation in reducing the cost of climate impacts, the versatility of thinking about the determinants of adaptive capacity for specific regions or sectors, and the feasibility of exploring both across a wide range of 'not-implausible' climate and socio-economic scenarios. Three overarching themes emerge: adaptation matters, geographic diversity is critical, and enormous uncertainty must be recognized and accommodated. CR *INT PAN CLIM CHAN, 1990, 1990 CLIM CHANG IPCC *IPCC, 1992, 1992 CLIM CHANG SUPP WATSON RT, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, V1, P1 *IPCC, 1996, 1995 SCI CLIM CHANG *IPCC, 1996, CLIM CHANG 1995 EC S *IPCC, 2000, 2000 SPEC REP EM SCE MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 *IPCC, 2001, 2000 MIT CONTR WORK *IPCC, 2001, 2000 SCI CLIM CHANG ALCAMO J, 1998, GLOBAL CHANGE SCENAR ALFSEN KH, 1999, 1 CICERO DOWLATABADI H, 2000, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V10, P214 DOWNING TE, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE WORLD DOWNING TE, 1997, MITIGATION ADAPTATIO, V2, P19 GRITSEVSKII A, 1998, SCEBARUI GEBERATOR T HEWITT J, 1971, HAZARDOUSNESS PLACE JOOS F, 1996, TELLUS B, V48, P397 KANE SM, 1992, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V21, P17 KARL TR, 1998, B AM METEOROL SOC, V79, P231 MEARNS LO, 1997, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V35, P367 MENDELSOHN R, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P553 MORITA T, 1998, QUANTIFICATION IPCC MYHRE G, 1998, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V25, P2715 NORDHAUS WD, 2000, WARMING WORLD EC MOD PEPPER W, 1998, ENV SCI POLICY, V1, P289 PITTOCK AB, 2000, ENVIRON MONIT ASSESS, V61, P9 SCHLESINGER ME, 1998, COSMIC COUNTRY SPECI SCHLESINGER ME, 2000, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V65, P167 SCHNEIDER S, 1989, MANAGING PLANT READI, P25 SMIT B, 1999, MITIGATION ADAPTATIO, V4, P119 SMITHERS J, 1997, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V7, P129 STRZEPEK K, 2001, IN PRESS INTEGRATED TOL RSJ, 1999, I ENV STUDIES TOL RSJ, 2001, FLOODS FLOOD MANAGEM WEST JJ, 1999, CLIMATE CHANGE RISK, P205 YATES D, 1998, J HYDROL ENG, V3, P98 YOHE GW, 1989, OCEAN SHORELINE MANA, V15, P233 YOHE GW, 1996, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V32, P387 YOHE GW, 1999, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V9, P233 YOHE GW, 2002, IN PRESS GLOBAL ENV YOHE GW, 2002, P PIK WORKSH ENH CAP YOHE GW, 1998, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V38, P447 NR 42 TC 0 J9 J ECON GEOGR BP 311 EP 341 PY 2002 PD JUL 1 VL 2 IS 3 GA 645BL UT ISI:000180956300003 ER PT J AU Campo, J Andreu, V Gimeno-Garcia, E Gonzalez, O Rubio, JL TI Occurrence of soil erosion after repeated experimental fires in a Mediterranean environment SO GEOMORPHOLOGY LA English DT Article C1 Univ Valencia, CIDE, CSIC, Generalitat Valenciana, Valencia 46470, Spain. RP Campo, J, Univ Valencia, CIDE, CSIC, Generalitat Valenciana, Cami Marjal SN, Valencia 46470, Spain. AB In the Mediterranean area, forest fires have become a first-order environmental problem. Increased fire frequency progressively reduces ecosystem recovery periods. The fire season, usually followed by torrential rains in autumn, intensifies erosion processes and increases desertification risk. In this work, the effect of repeated experimental fires on soil response to water erosion is studied in the Permanent Field Station of La Concordia, Valencia, Spain. In nine 80 m(2) plots (20 m long x 4 m wide), all runoff and sediment produced were measured after each rainfall event. In 1995, two fire treatments with the addition of different biomass amounts were applied. Three plots were burned with high fire intensity three with moderate intensity, and three were unburned to be used as control. In 2003, the plots with the fire treatments were burned again with low fire intensities. During the 8-year interval between fires, plots remained undisturbed, allowing regeneration of the vegetation-soil system. Results obtained during the first 5 months after both fire experiments show the high vulnerability of the soil to erosion after a repeated fire. For the burned plots, runoff rates increased three times more than those of 1995, and soil losses increased almost twice. The highest sediment yield (514 g m(-2)) was measured in 2003, in the plots of the moderate fire intensity treatment, which yielded only 231 g w(-2) of sediment during the corresponding period in 1995. Runoff yield from the control plots did not show significant temporal changes, while soil losses decreased from 5 g m(-2) in the first post-fire period to 0.7 g m(-2) in the second one. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. CR *EUR COMM, 2002, FOR FIR EUR 2001 FIR *MAPA, 1986, MET OF AN ANDREU V, 1994, SOIL EROSION CONSEQU, P79 ANDREU V, 1996, INT J WILDLAND FIRE, V6, P53 ANDREU V, 2001, CATENA, V44, P69 BENAVIDESSOLORIO J, 2001, HYDROL PROCESS, V15, P2931 CAMMERAAT LH, 1999, CATENA, V37, P107 CERDA A, 1995, CATENA, V24, P289 DEBANO LF, 2000, J HYDROL, V231, P195 DIAZFIERROS F, 1994, SOIL EROSION DEGRADA, P163 DOERR SH, 2000, J HYDROL, V231, P134 EMMERICH WE, 1994, SOIL SCI SOC AM J, V58, P199 ETIENE M, 1994, P 2 INT C FOR FIR RE, P425 GIMENOGARCIA E, 2000, EUR J SOIL SCI, V51, P201 HUDSON NW, 1981, SOIL CONSERVATION HUFFMAN EL, 2001, HYDROL PROCESS, V15, P2877 IMESON AC, 1992, CATENA, V19, P345 INBAR M, 1998, GEOMORPHOLOGY, V24, P17 JACKSON ML, 1958, SOIL CHEM ANAL MOODY JA, 2001, EARTH SURF PROC LAND, V26, P1049 MORGAN RPC, 1997, EROSION CONSERVACION PRIMOYUFERA E, 1973, QUIMICA AGRICOLA RICHARDS LA, 1947, AGR ENG, V28, P451 RICHARDS LA, 1954, USDA AGR HDB, V60 ROBICHAUD PR, 1994, WATER RESOUR BULL, V30, P27 RUBIO JL, 1990, STRATEGIES COMBAT DE, P163 RUBIO JL, 1996, SOIL EROSION PROCESS, P41 SALA M, 1994, P 2 INT C FOR FIN RE, P1123 SHAHLAEE AK, 1991, WATER RESOUR BULL, V27, P485 SHAKESBY RA, 2000, J HYDROL, V231, P178 TRABAUD L, 1990, STRATEGIES COMBAT DE, P104 WHELAN R, 1997, ECOLOGY FIRE NR 32 TC 0 J9 GEOMORPHOLOGY BP 376 EP 387 PY 2006 PD DEC 15 VL 82 IS 3-4 GA 121NB UT ISI:000243163200013 ER PT J AU Kenny, GJ Warrick, RA Campbell, BD Sims, GC Camilleri, M Jamieson, PD Mitchell, ND McPherson, HG Salinger, MJ TI Investigating climate change impacts and thresholds: An application of the CLIMPACTS integrated assessment model for New Zealand agriculture SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 Univ Waikato, Int Global Change Inst, Hamilton, New Zealand. AgRes, Grassland Res Ctr, Palmerston North, New Zealand. Mt Albert Res Ctr, HortRes, Auckland, New Zealand. Crop & Food Res, Christchurch, New Zealand. Univ Auckland, Sch Environm & Marine Sci, Auckland 1, New Zealand. NIWA, Auckland, New Zealand. RP Kenny, GJ, Univ Waikato, Int Global Change Inst, Private Bag 3105, Hamilton, New Zealand. AB The determination of `critical thresholds' is an essential task for informed policy decisions on establishing greenhouse gas emission targets. This paper presents a framework for determining critical thresholds for New Zealand agriculture, focusing on three agricultural crops - kiwifruit, grain maize, and Paspalum dilatatum - as exemplars for the fruit production, arable cropping and dairy production industries in New Zealand. The approach is based on the application of a country-scale, integrated assessment model, called CLIMPACTS. The CLIMPACTS system contains a climate change scenario generator, climate and land data, and sectoral impact models. Importantly, CLIMPACTS allows time-dependent assessments of climate change and its effects, which facilitates the identification and examination of thresholds, which largely relate to spatial changes, over time, in regions of economic importance for these crops. However, whether such thresholds are `critical' for New Zealand cannot currently be addressed by the CLIMPACTS model. The determination of `criticality' requires a fully integrated assessment in which the social, economic, and environmental costs and risks associated with these thresholds are comprehensively evaluated. 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SO GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY LA English DT Article C1 Univ Lausanne, DEE, LBC, CH-1015 Lausanne, Switzerland. Univ Grenoble 1, CNRS, UMR 5553, Lab Ecol Apline, F-38041 Grenoble 9, France. S African Natl Biodivers Inst, Kirstenbosch Res Ctr, Climat Change Res Grp, ZA-7735 Cape Town, South Africa. Agr Dev & Advisory Serv, Wolverhampton WV6 8TQ, England. Netherlands Environm Assessment Agcy, Bilthoven, Netherlands. RP Broenniman, O, Univ Lausanne, DEE, LBC, Batiment Biol, CH-1015 Lausanne, Switzerland. AB We modelled the future distribution in 2050 of 975 endemic plant species in southern Africa distributed among seven life forms, including new methodological insights improving the accuracy and ecological realism of predictions of global changes studies by: (i) using only endemic species as a way to capture the full realized niche of species, (ii) considering the direct impact of human pressure on landscape and biodiversity jointly with climate, and (iii) taking species' migration into account. Our analysis shows important promises for predicting the impacts of climate change in conjunction with land transformation. We have shown that the endemic flora of Southern Africa on average decreases with 41% in species richness among habitats and with 39% on species distribution range for the most optimistic scenario. We also compared the patterns of species' sensitivity with global change across life forms, using ecological and geographic characteristics of species. We demonstrate here that species and life form vulnerability to global changes can be partly explained according to species' (i) geographical distribution along climatic and biogeographic gradients, like climate anomalies, (ii) niche breadth or (iii) proximity to barrier preventing migration. Our results confirm that the sensitivity of a given species to global environmental changes depends upon its geographical distribution and ecological proprieties, and makes it possible to estimate a priori its potential sensitivity to these changes. 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RP Garibaldi, A, Univ Victoria, Victoria, BC V8W 2Y2, Canada. AB Ecologists have long recognized that some species, by virtue of the key roles they play in the overall structure and functioning of an ecosystem, are essential to its integrity; these are known as keystone species. Similarly, in human cultures everywhere, there are plants and animals that form the contextual underpinnings of a culture, as reflected in their fundamental roles in diet, as materials, or in medicine. In addition, these species often feature prominently in the language, ceremonies, and narratives of native peoples and can be considered cultural icons. Without these "cultural keystone species," the societies they support would be completely different. An obvious example is western red-cedar (Thuja plicata) for Northwest Coast cultures of North America. Often prominent elements of local ecosystems, cultural keystone species may be used and harvested in large quantities and intensively managed for quality and productivity. Given that biological conservation and ecological restoration embody human cultures as crucial components, one approach that may improve success in overall conservation or restoration efforts is to recognize and focus on cultural keystone species. In this paper, we explore the concept of cultural keystone species, describe similarities to and differences from ecological keystone species, present examples from First Nations cultures of British Columbia, and discuss the application of this concept in ecological restoration and conservation initiatives. 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AB Four accelerated sea level rise scenarios, 30 and 100 cm by the year 2100, and 10 and 30 cm by the year 2030, have been assumed as boundary conditions (along with some wind climate changes) for the entire Polish coast, under two recent programmes completed in 1992 and 1995, Three adaptation strategies, i.e., retreat, limited protection and full protection have been adopted and compared in physical and socio-economic terms. Over 2,200 km(2) and 230,000 people are found vulnerable in the most severe case of 100-cm rise by 2100. The total cost of land at loss in that case is estimated at nearly 30 USD billion (plus some 18 USD billion at risk of flooding), while the cost of full protection reaches 6 USD billion. Particular features of vulnerability and adaptation schemes have been examined as well, including specific sites and the effects of not only sea level rise but also other climate change factors, and interactions with other climate change studies in Poland. Planning of coastal zone management facing climate change can be facilitated by the use of a GIS-supported coastal information and analysis system. An example of the application of such a system for a selected Polish coastal site is shown to illustrate the most recent smaller-scale research activities undertaken in the wake of the overall assessment of the vulnerability to climate change for the entire Polish coastal zone. CR TITUS J, 1992, RISING CHALLENGE SEA WROBLEWSKI A, 1993, OCEANOLOGIA, V33, P45 WROBLEWSKI A, 1993, THEORETICAL ASSUMPTI ZEIDLER R, 1994, P S MAR ENG ENV PROT, P131 ZEIDLER RB, 1990, HYDROT T, V53, P135 ZEIDLER RB, 1992, ASSESSMENT VULNERABI, P135 ZEIDLER RB, 1995, IN PRESS USCSP NOTES ZEIDLER RB, 1995, J COASTAL RES, V22, P33 ZEIDLER RB, 1995, J COASTAL RES, V22, P99 ZEIDLER RB, 1995, P 24 INT C COAST ENG, P3462 NR 10 TC 6 J9 CLIMATIC CHANGE BP 151 EP 173 PY 1997 PD MAY-JUN VL 36 IS 1-2 GA XH635 UT ISI:A1997XH63500011 ER PT J AU Kay, RC Eliot, I CAton, B Morvell, G Waterman, P TI A review of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Common Methodology for Assessing the Vulnerability of Coastal Areas to Sea-Level Rise SO COASTAL MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article RP Kay, RC, WESTERN AUSTRALIA MINIST PLANNING,469 WELLINGTON ST,PERTH 6000,WA,AUSTRALIA. AB The Common Methodology for Assessing the Vulnerability to Sea-Level Rise was developed by the Coastal Zone Management Subgroup (CZMS) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 1991. Its main objectives were to provide a methodologically rigorous, yet simple, step-wise technique for assessing the impact of sea-level rise. The method was to be commonly applicable to all coastal nations, and it was to allow comparison of the assessments to determine which coastal regions of the world are the most vulnerable. The effectiveness of The Common Methodology is reviewed in this article on the basis of whether or not it met its objectives. Despite considerable efforts, the objectives have proved difficult to achieve in most circumstances. This indicates that The Common Methodology has not been wholly successful in its application. Its apparent failure has been due to methodological and operational weaknesses, combined with poor understanding of how decisions to mitigate the impacts of sea-level rise are made in the majority of coastal nations. It thus is concluded that the IPCC's recent decision to abandon The Common Methodology in favor of a less prescriptive assessment approach is well founded. A less prescriptive approach, such as a flexible assessment framework, has a potential to explicitly recognize the economic, social, and environmental diversity of coastal zones and the administrative systems developed to manage them. The Australian Commonwealth Government has concurred with this view, and currently is funding nine case studies to develop vulnerability assessment procedures that are appropriate for the varied jurisdictional and biophysical characteristics of Australian states and region. The broad approach used to establish the Australian case studies is introduced in this article. CR *COMM AUSTR NAT GR, 1991, TOMORROWS ANSW REP G *COMM AUSTR RES AS, 1993, COAST ZON INQ FIN RE *GOF NEW S WAL, 1990, COAST MAN MAN *INT PAN CLIM CHAN, 1990, P MIAM WORKSH COAST *IPCC COAST ZON MA, 1991, COMM METH ASS COAST *IPCC COAST ZON MA, 1991, STRAT AD SEA LEV RIS *IPCC COAST ZON MA, 1992, GLOB CLIM CHANG RIS *IPCC COAST ZON MA, 1993, IPCC E HEM WORKSH VU *IPCC COAST ZON MA, 1993, P PREP WORKSH INT CO *IPCC COAST ZON MA, 1994, P INT WORKSH GLOB CL *IPCC, 1990, P AD RESP CLIM CHANG *IPCC, 1990, STRAT AD SEA LEV RIS *IPCC, 1991, CLIM CHANG IPCC RESP *NOAA, 1994, 1992 1993 BIENN REP *ORG EC COOP DEV, 1993, COAST ZON MAN INT PO *QUEENSL GOV REG P, 1993, RIV COAST MAN, P131 *S PAC REG ENV PRO, 1992, CLIM CHAN SEA LEV RI *UN, 1992, UN C ENV DEV OUTC C *UNESCO, IMP EXP CLIM CHANG M *US C, 1993, PREP UNC CLIM *W AUSTR GOV DEP P, 1994, CENTR COAST REG STRA, P113 *WORLD BANK, 1993, NOORW GUID INT COAST, P21 BEUKENKAMP P, 1993, P WORLD COAST 93 BIJLSMA L, IN PRESS CLIMATE CHA BIRD ECF, 1993, SUBMERGING COASTS EF BOELAERTSUOMINE.S, 1994, LEGAL I ASPECTS INTE CAREY JJ, 1992, OCEAN COAST MANAGE, V18, P161 CARTER TR, 1994, TECHNICAL GUIDELINES CATON B, 1993, VULNERABILITY ASSESS CONNELL J, 1992, S PACIFIC REGIONAL E, V55 EDGREN G, 1993, EXPECTED EC DEMOGRAP EDWARDS AJ, 1995, CLIMATE CHANGE IMPAC, P209 ELLISON JC, 1991, J COASTAL RES, V7, P151 ENGELEN G, 1992, CLIMATE CHANGE INTRA, P306 FANKHAUSER S, 1995, VALUING CLIMATE CHAN FIFITA NP, 1992, INT PAN CLIM CHANG C HOLLICK M, 1993, INTRO PROJECT EVALUA HOLTHUS P, 1992, SPREP REPORTS STUDIE, V60 HOUGHTON JT, 1990, CLIMATE CHANGE IPCC HOUGHTON JT, 1992, CLIMATE CHANGE SUPPL KALUWIN C, 1993, VULNERABILITY ASSESS, P5 KAUSHER A, 1994, CLIMATE CHANGE SEA L, V36 KAY RC, IN PRESS P GREENH 94 KAY RC, 1992, ANAL IPCC SEA LEVEL KAY RC, 1993, ASSESSMENT COASTAL V KAY RC, 1993, VULNERABILITY ASSESS, P213 KAY RC, 1994, P INT WORKSH GLOB CL, P293 KAY RC, 1995, P 4 ANN C EUR UN COA, P415 MAUL GA, 1992, CLIMATE CHANGE INTRA MCLEAN R, 1993, P INT PAN CLIM CHANG MCLEAN RF, 1993, P IPCC COAST ZON MAN, P99 MORVELL G, 1993, VULNERABILITY ASSESS, P79 NICHOLLS RJ, 1993, P WORLD COAST 93, P181 NUNN P, 1993, ASSESSMENT COASTAL V NUNN P, 1994, ASSESSMENT COASTAL V PETHICK J, 1993, GEOGR J, V159, P162 SEM G, 1991, SPREP REPORTS STUDIE, V57 SULLIVAN M, 1991, SPREP REPORTS STUDIE, V57 THOM BG, 1988, GREENHOUSE PLANNING, P177 TITUS JG, 1991, COAST MANAGE, V19, P171 TURNER RK, 1990, CITIES RISK, P108 TURNER RK, 1993, SUSTAINABLE ENV EC M VELLINGA P, 1993, OCEAN COAST MANAGE, V21, P245 VICTOR DG, 1994, ENVIRONMENT, V36, P7 WATERMAN P, UNPUB VULNERABILITY WOODROFFE CD, 1992, KIRIBATI VULNERABILI WOODROFFE CD, 1993, COCOS KEELING ISLAND WOODROFFE CD, 1994, P INT WORKSH GLOB CL, P29 WOODROFFE CD, 1994, PROGR PHYSICAL GEOGR, V18, P434 YAMADA K, 1995, J GLOBAL ENV ENG, V1, P101 NR 70 TC 2 J9 COAST MANAGE BP 165 EP 188 PY 1996 PD APR-JUN VL 24 IS 2 GA UW095 UT ISI:A1996UW09500004 ER PT J AU Bogale, T Mariam, DH Ali, A TI Costs of illness and coping strategies in a coffee-growing rural district of Ethiopia SO JOURNAL OF HEALTH POPULATION AND NUTRITION LA English DT Article C1 Univ Addis Ababa, Dept Community Hlth, Fac Med, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. RP Mariam, DH, Univ Addis Ababa, Dept Community Hlth, Fac Med, POB 11950, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. AB The paper describes a cross-sectiondl household survey conducted in randomly-selected villages in rural Ethiopia to assess strategies of households for coping with financial and time costs of illness. Results of the survey showed that the average monthly household health expenditure was 32.87 Birr (about US$ 4.1 [US$ 1=8 Birr at the time of study]). In addition, the average time lost due to illness was 9.23 days for the sick and 7.38 days for their caretakers. Monetary price was a significant (p < 0.05) deterrent from visiting health facilities among households with no land or house, the divorced or widowed, and those with annual income less than 500 Birr (US$ 62.5). The main strategies to cope with the financial costs of illness were waiver privileges, selling household assets, and using savings. Division of labour among household members was used for compensating for the loss of working time due to sickness. The findings of the study indicate that financial and time costs of illness seem to significantly contribute to the impoverishment of rural households. CR *ETH GOV, 1996, HLTH SECT REV SYNTH, P8 *ETH OFF POP HOUS, 1996, 1994 POP HOUS CENS E, P29 *WHO, 2000, HLTH PREC ASS ACC FO ASENSOOKYERE WK, 1998, HEALTH POLICY PLANN, V13, P181 BERMAN P, 1987, HLTH POLICY PLANNING, V2, P289 CARRIN G, 1998, MACROECONOMICS HLTH, V30 CHAMBERS R, 1989, IDS B, V20, P1 DAGNEW MB, 1984, ETHIOPIAN MED J, V22, P173 DERCON S, 2000, J POLIT ECON, V108, P688 FABRICANT SJ, 1991, BAMAKO INITIATIVE TE, V8, P29 KONRADSEN F, 1997, AM J TROP MED HYG, V56, P656 MARIAM DH, 2000, AFRICAS CHANGING MAR, P40 MBUGUA JK, 1995, SOC SCI MED, V41, P829 MCPAKE B, 1993, SOC SCI MED, V36, P1383 MILLS A, 1994, HEALTH POLICY, V29, P209 MWABU GM, 1989, ECON DEV CULT CHANGE, V37, P383 PINSTRUPANDERSO.P, 1993, MACROECONOMIC ENV HL, P85 PRYER J, 1989, IDS BULL-I DEV STUD, V20, P49 RUSSELL S, 1996, HEALTH POLICY PLANN, V11, P219 SAUERBORN R, 1991, TROP MED PARASITOL, V42, P219 NR 20 TC 0 J9 J HEALTH POPUL NUTR BP 192 EP 199 PY 2005 PD JUN VL 23 IS 2 GA 952VM UT ISI:000231033600011 ER PT J AU Mende, A Astorga, A Neumann, D TI Strategy for groundwater management in developing countries: A case study in northern Costa Rica SO JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY LA English DT Article C1 Univ Costa Rica, Escuela Ctr Amer Geol, San Pedro 2070, Montes Oca, Costa Rica. Dr Neumann & Busch Consulting, D-52074 Aachen, Germany. RP Mende, A, Univ Costa Rica, Escuela Ctr Amer Geol, Ciudade Univ, San Pedro 2070, Montes Oca, Costa Rica. AB On the basis of a case study in northern Costa Rica, in an area of one of the country's most important volcanic aquifers, we developed a GIS-based groundwater management system suitable for the limited financial, technical and data resources of developing countries. Input and processing of attribute data-like information about groundwater wells or geological outcrops are realized with the help of an ACCESS database. The GIS-platform ArcView is used for input and analysis of all types of spatial data, e.g. maps of geology, hydrogeotogy, land use, or locations of groundwater wells. A threedimensional model of the subsurface geology is constructed with the help of the interactive 3D-Modetter RHINOCEROS (R)-NURBS modelling for Windows. The GIS-ptatform ArcView is used for the final integrated spatial analysis of the three-dimensional model and the generated spatial and attribute databases. The basic concept for data analysis is a five-step numerical index as a simple but efficient matter of standardization in order to take into account a wide spectrum of input data of varying quality and precision. As an example of application, the assessment of the vulnerability of aquifers is presented, which can be calculated on the basis of the hydrogeological profile (sequence of different strata with varying permeability), the infiltration potential of the soil layer and the distance to fault zones for each location of the study area. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. CR *ITC, 2001, ILWIS 3 0 AC US GUID *ONU, 1975, DPUNCOS655021 ONU ALADAMAT RAN, 2003, APPL GEOGR, V23, P303 ALEMAW BF, 2004, P INT C REG AFR 3 6, P559 ALLER LT, 1987, EPA600287035 BARTHEL R, 2004, MODELLING GROUNDWATE, T8 BERGOEING JP, 1998, GEOMORPHOLOGIA COSTA CHEBAANE M, 2004, HYDROGEOL J, V12, P14 CHIESA S, 1991, REV GEOL AM CENT, V13, P73 CHIESA S, 1994, REV GEOLOGICA AM, V17, P19 CIVELLI G, 1990, GEOVULCANOLOGIA PETR COLLINS JL, 1999, THESIS U WATERLOO CA FISHER TR, 1992, NATO ASI SER C-MATH, V354, P85 FRITCH TG, 2000, ENVIRON MANAGE, V25, P337 HENRIKSEN HJ, 2003, J HYDROL, V280, P52 HUTCHINSON MF, 1989, J HYDROL, V106, P211 KEMPTER K, 1997, THESIS U AUSTIN TEXA KNOX RC, 1993, SUBSURFACE TRANSPORT MENDE A, IN PRESS GEOMORPHOLO MORERA S, 2000, DETERMINACION ZONAS OCALLAGHAN JF, 1984, COMPUT VISION GRAPH, V28, P323 PISCOPO G, 2001, GROUNDWATER VULNERAB RICHTER DC, 1991, GEO CARTOGRAPHY INT, V6, P51 SAKIYAN J, 2004, HYDROGEOL J, V12, P66 SANDOVAL R, 2004, HYDROGEOL J, V12, P6 SECUNDA S, 1998, J ENVIRON MANAGE, V54, P39 THOMSEN R, 2004, HYDROGEOL J, V12, P550 VISSERS MJM, 2004, GROUNDWATER FLOW UND, T8 ZHANG RD, 1997, SOIL SCI SOC AM J, V61, P1024 NR 29 TC 0 J9 J HYDROL BP 109 EP 124 PY 2007 PD FEB 20 VL 334 IS 1-2 GA 138ZE UT ISI:000244401000010 ER PT J AU Oppenheimer, M TI Defining dangerous anthropogenic interference: The role of science, the limits of science SO RISK ANALYSIS LA English DT Article C1 Princeton Univ, Woodrow Wilson Sch, Princeton, NJ 08544 USA. Princeton Univ, Dept Geosci, Princeton, NJ 08544 USA. RP Oppenheimer, M, Princeton Univ, Woodrow Wilson Sch, Robertson Hall 448, Princeton, NJ 08544 USA. AB Defining "dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system" in the context of Article 2 of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) presents a complex challenge for those developing long-term climate policy. Natural science has a key role to play in quantifying vulnerabilities of elements of the Earth system and estimating the risks from a changing climate. But attempts to interpret Article 2 will inevitably draw on understanding from social science, psychology, law, and ethics. Here I consider the limits of science in defining climate "danger" by focusing on the potential disintegration of the major ice sheets as an example of an extreme impact. I show that considerations of timescale, uncertainty, and learning preclude a definition of danger drawn purely from natural science. Decisionmakers will be particularly challenged by one characteristic of global problems: answers to some scientific questions become less accurate over decadal timescales, meandering toward the wrong answer, a feature I call negative learning. I argue for a precautionary approach to Article 2 that would be based initially on current, limited scientific understanding of the future of the ice sheets. 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Univ Colorado, Environm & Behav Program, Inst Behav Sci, Boulder, CO 80309 USA. RP McCabe, JT, Univ Colorado, Dept Anthropol, Boulder, CO 80309 USA. CR *AM MUS NAT HIST, 1998, NAT SURV REV BIOD CR *UN, 2002, PLAN IMPL WORLD SUMM *WORLD COMM ENV DE, 1987, OUR COMM FUT BRUNDTL CLARK WC, 2001, ECOL LAW QUART, V27, P1021 FRATKIN E, 2003, HUM ORGAN, V62, P112 KATES RW, 2001, SCIENCE, V292, P641 NR 6 TC 1 J9 HUM ORGAN BP 91 EP 92 PY 2003 PD SUM VL 62 IS 2 GA 689ZU UT ISI:000183523500001 ER PT J AU Berkhout, F Hertin, J Gann, DM TI Learning to adapt: Organisational adaptation to climate change impacts SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 Vrije Univ Amsterdam, Inst Environm Studies, Fac Earth & Life Sci, NL-1081 HV Amsterdam, Netherlands. Univ Sussex, SPRU, Sci & Technol Policy Res, Brighton BN1 9RH, E Sussex, England. Univ London Imperial Coll Sci Technol & Med, Inovat Studies Ctr, Tanaka Business Sch, London SW7 2AZ, England. RP Berkhout, F, Vrije Univ Amsterdam, Inst Environm Studies, Fac Earth & Life Sci, De Boelelaan 1085, NL-1081 HV Amsterdam, Netherlands. AB Analysis of human adaptation to climate change should be based on realistic models of adaptive behaviour at the level of organisations and individuals. The paper sets out a framework for analysing adaptation to the direct and indirect impacts of climate change in business organisations with new evidence presented from empirical research into adaptation in nine case-study companies. It argues that adaptation to climate change has many similarities with processes of organisational learning. The paper suggests that business organisations face a number of obstacles in learning how to adapt to climate change impacts, especially in relation to the weakness and ambiguity of signals about climate change and the uncertainty about benefits flowing from adaptation measures. Organisations rarely adapt 'autonomously', since their adaptive behaviour is influenced by policy and market conditions, and draws on resources external to the organisation. The paper identifies four adaptation strategies that pattern organisational adaptive behaviour. 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Amer Meteorol Soc, Washington, DC 20005 USA. NOAA, Silver Spring, MD 20910 USA. Potsdam Inst Climate Imapct Res, D-14412 Potsdam, Germany. Griffith Univ, Nathan, Qld 4111, Australia. Stockholm Univ, S-18451 Stockholm, Sweden. Univ Versailles, Ctr Econ & Eth Environm & Dev, F-78047 Guyancourt, France. Econ Commiss Latin Amer & Caribbean, Santiago, Chile. Int Inst Appl Syst Anal, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria. Natl Bot Inst, ZA-7735 Cape Town, South Africa. Int Human Dimens Programme Global Environm Change, D-53113 Bonn, Germany. Int Ctr Integrated Mt Dev, Kathmandu, Nepal. Stockholm Environm Inst, S-10314 Stockholm, Sweden. Stanford Univ, Stanford, CA 94305 USA. Univ New Hampshire, Inst Earth Oceans & Space, Durham, NH 03824 USA. Univ E Anglia, Ctr Social & Econ Res Global Environm, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. Swedish Council Planning & Coordinat Res FRN, S-10387 Stockholm, Sweden. Dev Policy Ctr, Ibadan, Nigeria. RP Clark, WC, Harvard Univ, John F Kennedy Sch Govt, Cambridge, MA 02138 USA. CR 2000, TRANSITION SUSTAINAB *GERM ADV COUNC GL, 1997, WORLD TRANS RES CHAL *NAT RES COUNC BOA, 1999, OUR COMMON JOURNEY T *NAT RES COUNC COM, 2000, SCI REG GLOB CHANG P *U SO CAL, SUST CIT PROGR ENV S ANNAN KA, 2000, WE PEOPLES ROLE UN 2 BOLIN B, 2000, UNEP ENCY GLOBAL ENV BRANDOM R, 1988, MAKING IT EXPLICIT R CASH DW, 2000, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V10, P109 FAUCHEUX S, 2000, FUTURIBLES, V251, P29 FAUCHEUX S, 2000, NAT SCI SOC, V8, P31 GALLOPIN G, IN PRESS INT SOC SCI GIBSON CC, 2000, ECOL ECON, V32, P217 GRUBLER A, 1999, ANNU REV ENERG ENV, V24, P545 JAGER J, 1999, EFIEA WORKSH UNC EUR JODHA NS, 1998, LINKING SOCIAL ECOLO MATSON PA, 1998, SCIENCE, V280, P112 PARSON EA, 1995, BARRIERS BRIDGES REN, P428 PETSCHELHELD G, 1999, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V41, P303 PETSCHELHELD G, 1999, ENVIRON MODEL ASSESS, V4, P295 SCHELLNHUBER HJ, 1999, NATURE S, V402, C19 TUINSTRA W, 1999, ENVIRONMENT, V41, P32 VARIS O, 1997, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V37, P539 WATSON R, 1998, PROTECTING OUR PLANE WILBANKS TJ, 1999, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V43, P601 NR 25 TC 74 J9 SCIENCE BP 641 EP 642 PY 2001 PD APR 27 VL 292 IS 5517 GA 428TX UT ISI:000168478300024 ER PT J AU Dessai, S Adger, WN Hulme, M Turnpenny, J Kohler, J Warren, R TI Defining and experiencing dangerous climate change - An editorial essay SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 Univ E Anglia, Sch Environm Sci, Tyndall Ctr Climate Change Res, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. Univ E Anglia, Sch Environm Sci, CSERGE, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. Univ Cambridge, Dept Appl Econ, Cambridge CB3 9DE, England. RP Dessai, S, Univ E Anglia, Sch Environm Sci, Tyndall Ctr Climate Change Res, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. AB Understanding what constitutes dangerous climate change is of critical importance for future concerted action ( Schneider, 2001, 2002). To date separate scientific and policy discourses have proceeded with competing and somewhat arbitrary definitions of danger based on a variety of assumptions and assessments generally undertaken by 'experts'. We argue that it is not possible to make progress on defining dangerous climate change, or in developing sustainable responses to this global problem, without recognising the central role played by social or individual perceptions of danger. There are therefore at least two contrasting perspectives on dangerous climate change, what we term 'external' and 'internal' definitions of risk. External definitions are usually based on scientific risk analysis, performed by experts, of system characteristics of the physical or social world. Internal definitions of danger recognise that to be real, danger has to be either experienced or perceived - it is the individual or collective experience or perception of insecurity or lack of safety that constitutes the danger. A robust policy response must appreciate both external and internal definitions of danger. 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IRSN Cadarache, DEI, SESURE, LERCM, F-13115 St Paul Les Durance, France. Delft Univ Technol, Fac Civil Engn, Hydraul Engn Sect, NL-2628 CN Delft, Netherlands. RP Maillet, GM, Univ Aix Marseille 1, CEREGE, BP 80, F-13545 Aix En Provence 04, France. AB On the shores of the Rhone delta, only beaches close to the river mouth benefit from direct terrigeneous input. In order to understand the mechanisms of river sediment discharge distribution at the coastline, our work uses a large historic data base to compare the maximum distances separating two consecutive historic coast lines. Near the active mouth and during the last two centuries, an analysis of average and maximum shifts in coastline position shows a general decline of active lobe progradation rates, with highly irregular rates of shorter-term coastline fluctuation embedded within this trend. Erosion of the lobe is observed only during the second half of the 20th century. Using a qualitative approach, variations in the position of the coastline are explained by two independent causes: external forcing factors such as the human impact and climate, which control the volume, nature and grain size of the sediment output; but also an autocyclic component, which is linked to the interaction between submarine parameters such as accomodation space, sedimentation rate, and river channel response through avulsion. It appears that the decrease in sediment discharge of the Rhone River over the last 200 years has not influenced the growth of the active submarine lobe, but affects its vulnerability. 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Purdue Univ, Dept Earth & Atmospher Sci, W Lafayette, IN 47907 USA. Abdus Salam Int Ctr Theoret Phys, Earth Syst Phys Grp, I-34014 Trieste, Italy. RP Diffenbaugh, NS, Purdue Univ, Purdue Climate Change Res Ctr, 550 Stadium Mall Dr, W Lafayette, IN 47907 USA. AB We find that extreme temperature and precipitation events are likely to respond substantially to anthropogenically enhanced greenhouse forcing and that fine-scale climate system modifiers are likely to play a critical role in the net response. At present, such events impact a wide variety of natural and human systems, and future changes in their frequency and/or magnitude could have dramatic ecological, economic, and sociological consequences. Our results indicate that fine-scale snow albedo effects influence the response of both hot and cold events and that peak increases in extreme hot events are amplified by surface moisture feedbacks. Likewise, we find that extreme precipitation is enhanced on the lee side of rain shadows and over coastal areas dominated by convective precipitation. We project substantial, spatially heterogeneous increases in both hot and wet events over the contiguous United States by the end of the next century, suggesting that consideration of fine-scale processes is critical for accurate assessment of local- and regional-scale vulnerability to climate change. 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Univ Missouri, Lab Climate Anal & Modeling LCAM, Dept Geosci, Kansas City, MO 64110 USA. Univ Colorado, Cooperat Inst Res Environm Sci, Dept Geog, Boulder, CO 80309 USA. CNR, Board Atmospher Sci & Climate, Natl Acad, Washington, DC 20001 USA. Purdue Univ, Dept Agron, W Lafayette, IN 47907 USA. Purdue Univ, Dept Earth & Atmospher Sci, W Lafayette, IN 47907 USA. RP Pielke, RA, Univ Colorado, CIRES, Boulder, CO 80309 USA. AB This paper discusses the diverse climate forcings that impact agricultural systems, and contrasts the current paradigm of using global models downscaled to agricultural areas (a top-down approach) with a new paradigm that first assesses the vulnerability of agricultural activities to the spectrum of environmental risk including climate (a bottom-up approach). To illustrate the wide spectrum of climate forcings, regional climate forcings are presented including land-use/land-cover change and the influence of aerosols on radiative and biogeochemical fluxes and cloud/precipitation processes, as well as how these effects can be teleconnected globally. Examples are presented of the vulnerability perspective, along with a small survey of the perceived drought impacts in a local area, in which a wide range of impacts for the same precipitation deficits are found. This example illustrates why agricultural assessments of risk to climate change and variability and of other environmental risks should start with a bottom-up perspective. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 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RP Villers-Ruiz, L, Univ Nacl Autonoma Mexico, Inst Geog, Ap Postal 20-850, Mexico City 04510, DF, Mexico. AB An assessment was made in order to determine the vulnerability of Mexico's forest ecosystems to climate change, according to the results of two General Circulation Models (GCMs): CCCM and GFDL-R30. These GCMs were made available for the study within the Country Study Program (U.S. Country Studies Program, 1994). Holdridge's life zones classification was used for this analysis. This work displays the climatic differences for each model and for different regions of Mexico. Climate scenarios were compared to current climate so as to notice climate change regions for each model. The main natural protected areas, as well as the Pones of the country with the most important forest exploitation areas were located in order to assess those that could be affected by climate change. Of the 18 life zones reported for the country, the most affected ones would be the temperate cold and warm forests, tending to disappear. On the contrary, tropical dry, very dry and thorn forests, with warm affinities tend to widen their current surfaces, according to the CCCM model. The GFDL-R30 model foresees increases in the distribution of tropical, humid and wet forests, which would be favored by the increase in rainfall, giving place to Tropical Rain Forests, currently non-existent in the country. Of the 33 natural protected areas used; for this study, 24 show changes in their life zones, the most affected ones are those found in the northern and occidental regions of the country. The most affected forest industries would be those located in the Sierra Madre Occidental, in the states of Durango and Chihuahua, and to the occidental part of the country, the industries found in Michoacan and Jalisco. 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Univ Nacl Mayor San Marcos, La Paz, Bolivia. RP O'Hare, G, Univ Derby, Geog Div, Kedleston Rd, Derby DE22 1GB, England. AB Landslides in the city of La Paz, Bolivia are complex in space and time. Their distribution within the city is differentiated by geographical variations in slope gradient, the nature of overlying surface deposits, and drainage density patterns. When mapped, the distribution of the most landslide-prone locations in the city coincides with the most mobile surface deposits on the higher and steeper slopes of the city. The timing of landslides is triggered when slope materials become saturated with moisture by rainfall, stream water, water seepage from high surrounding water tables, and from domestic sources. Landslide frequencies over the last 40 years show the role of inter-annual variations in summer rainfalls, especially the late summer period (Jan-Mar), and rising water tables connected to Lake Titicaca. Associations with ENSO events, both warm (El Nino) and cold (La Nina), prove negative, pointing to the importance of moisture sources from the north, south and east (Amazon) but not from the west (Pacific). The most vulnerable group exposed to the landslide hazard comprise the inhabitants of the self-built informal housing areas who occupy the more elevated steeper slopes of the northern part of the city. But societal vulnerability to earth movement in the city is widespread and interconnected. Higher income groups in the southern part of the city are affected by slower, if less dramatic, forms of land failure, and rich housing in downstream areas of the city are impacted by flash flooding encouraged by deforestation on the northern hill slopes where the poor live. Two case studies highlight the vulnerability and plight of the inhabitants of the self-built settlements in the aftermath of a major landslide, and a brief discussion of hazard mitigation and the importance of building hazard resilient communities concludes the paper. 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RP Anderson-Berry, LJ, James Cook Univ N Queensland, Ctr Disaster Studies, POB 6811, Cairns, Qld 4878, Australia. AB This paper is a partial discussion of a four-year study that investigated the vulnerability of the people living in the Cairns region to the tropical cyclone hazard. The longitudinal case study, focussing on the Cairns Northern Beaches area, was unique in that it included a social and societal 'pre-cyclone impact' evaluation of various resident communities within the region, and then two consecutive 'post-cyclone impact' studies. The primary research method supported an inductive qualitative approach to the collection and analysis of survey data. Some quantitative methods were invoked to support qualitative research findings. Survey data was collected in five separate questionnaire-based social surveys that were administered between 1996 and 2000. During the study, residents experienced the direct impact of two land-falling tropical cyclones. In addition to this, targeted and focussed tropical cyclone awareness education was made increasingly available within the community. The social and demographic attributes that influence the individual's perception of risk and contribute to our understanding of community vulnerability were examined and evaluated. Changes in the residents' attitudes, cyclone preparedness behaviours and willingness to respond to cyclone warnings were monitored and measured. Analysis of early survey data indicated that community residents generally had some knowledge of cyclones but a limited understanding of cyclone processes and very little direct personal experience of the cyclone hazard. Individually and collectively, residents frequently demonstrated a biased perception of the risks associated with cyclones. The resident community was shown to be fragmented, with limited support being available to individual households. Initially, residents were found to be poorly prepared for cyclones and unlikely to respond to warnings appropriately. It appeared that, in the event of a land-falling tropical cyclone impacting the area, the community was highly vulnerable to unnecessary loss of property, livelihood and - in extreme circumstances - life. By 2000, Cairns community residents were somewhat better informed about cyclones and certainly more experienced. This paper provides some insight into how cyclone experience and education may synergisticly have contributed to a change in risk perceptions and a reduction in the vulnerability of Cairns residents to the tropical cyclone and storm surge hazards. 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Univ Tampere, Dept Reg Studies & Environm Policy, FIN-33014 Tampere, Finland. RP Hayrynen, N, Univ Tampere, Grad Sch Russian & E European Studies, Aleksanteri Inst, FIN-33014 Tampere, Finland. AB Wars as well as military activities in peacetime cause severe environmental degradation and environmental risks. At the same Lime. military activities are veiled in secrecy. How can this complicated issue be addressed politically? Could the idea of,environmental security' offer a solution, and what then is the role of public discussion and environmental movements? This article discusses the question by using the sinking of the Russian nuclear-powered submarine Kursk and public discussion following it as a prism through which to look at the issue. Findings raise doubts about the usability of the concept of environmental security in environmental policy under Current world conditions. 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CR ALLEN TFH, 1982, HIERARCHY PERSPECTIV CLARK WC, 1985, CLIMATIC CHANGE, P5 GALLOPIN GC, 1981, INT J GEN SYST, P139 GALLOPIN GC, 1989, INT SOC SCI J, P375 GARCIA R, 1986, PROBLEMAS CONOCIMIEN, P45 GARICA R, 1984, FOOD SYSTEMS SOC CON GLEICK J, 1988, CHAOS MAKING NEW SCI GROBSTEIN C, 1973, HIERARCHY THEORY CHA, P31 HOLLING CS, 1986, SUSTAINABLE DEV BIOS, V1, P1 JANTSCH E, 1980, SELF ORG UNIVERSE SC LORENZ EN, 1964, TELLUS, P1 MESAROVIC MD, 1970, THEORY HIERARCHICAL NICOLIS G, 1977, SELF ORG NONEQUILIBR ONEILL RV, 1986, HIERARCHICAL CONCEPT PATTEE HH, 1973, HIERARCHY THEORY SIMON HA, 1973, HIERARCHY THEORY NR 16 TC 3 J9 INT SOC SCI J BP 707 EP 718 PY 1991 PD NOV VL 43 IS 4 GA GU250 UT ISI:A1991GU25000009 ER PT J AU Young, KR Lipton, JK TI Adaptive governance and climate change in the tropical highlands of Western South America SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 Univ Texas, Dept Geog & Environm, Austin, TX 78712 USA. RP Young, KR, Univ Texas, Dept Geog & Environm, Austin, TX 78712 USA. AB Climate changes occurring during the past several decades in the high elevations of the tropical Andes Mountains have implications for the native plant and animal species, for the ecological integrity of the affected land cover, and for the human-biophysical systems involved. Consequences are also probable for rural inhabitants and their livelihoods, especially for farmers and pastoralists. Biophysical factors have always changed in these mountainous zones; the extent and degree of alteration acting on native and agricultural biodiversity is the concern. Addressing these climate changes is probably within the adaptive capacity of many local land-use systems, unless external socioeconomic or political forces are unsupportive or antagonistic. Suitable programs to provide information, subsidies, or alternatives could be designed. We highlight some of the inherent resiliencies of natural and cultural systems in the Andes and suggest that these systems contain lessons that could be useful elsewhere, in terms of the traits that allow for the sustainable utilization of dynamic and heterogeneous landscapes. 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V19, P37 ZIMMERER KS, 2003, AGRIC HUMAN VALUES, V20, P107 NR 219 TC 2 J9 CLIMATIC CHANGE BP 63 EP 102 PY 2006 PD SEP VL 78 IS 1 GA 083UY UT ISI:000240484900004 ER PT J AU Kunkel, KE Pielke, RA Changnon, SA TI Temporal fluctuations in weather and climate extremes that cause economic and human health impacts: A review SO BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY LA English DT Article C1 Natl Ctr Atmospher Res, Boulder, CO 80307 USA. Changnon Climatologists, Mahomet, IL 61853 USA. RP Kunkel, KE, 1301 E Eliot, Urbana, IL 61801 USA. AB This paper reviews recent work on trends during this century in societal impacts (direct economic losses and fatalities) in the United States from extreme weather conditions and compares those with trends of associated atmospheric phenomena. Most measures of the economic impacts of weather and climate extremes over the past several decades reveal increasing losses. But trends in most related weather and climate extremes do not show comparable increases with time. This suggests that increasing losses are primarily due to increasing vulnerability arising from a variety of societal changes, including a growing population in higher risk coastal areas and large cities, more property subject to damage, and lifestyle and demographic changes subjecting lives and property to greater exposure. Flood damages and fatalities have generally increased in the last 25 years. While some have speculated that this may be due in part to a corresponding increase in the frequency of heavy rain events, the climate contribution to the observed impacts trends remains to be quantified. There has been a steady increase in hurricane losses. However, when changes in population, inflation, and wealth are considered, there is instead a downward trend. This is consistent with observations of trends in hurricane frequency and intensity. Increasing property losses due to thunderstorm-related phenomena (winds, hail, tornadoes) are explained entirely by changes in societal factors, consistent with the observed trends in the thunderstorm phenomena. Winter storm damages have increased in the last 10-15 years and this appears to be partially due to increases in the frequency of intense nor' easters. There is no evidence of changes in drought-related losses (although data are poor) and no apparent trend in climatic drought frequency. There is also no evidence of changes in the frequency of intense heat or cold waves. CR *CROP HAIL INS ACT, 1978, CROP HAIL INS STAT C *FIFMTF, 1992, FLOODPL MAN US ASS R, V2 *IPCC, 1996, CLIM CHANG 1995 SCI *US C, 1995, FED DIS ASS *US SEN SPEC COMM, 1983, HEAT STRESS OLD AM P ADAMS CR, 1997, WORKSH SOC EC IMP WE, P11 ANGEL JR, 1995, J GREAT LAKES RES, V21, P187 ANGEL JR, 1998, J CLIMATE, V11, P61 AVERY WM, 1985, HEAT YOUR HEART HEAT BALLING RC, 1990, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V53, P143 CHANGNON D, 1998, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V38, P435 CHANGNON SA, 1977, J APPL METEOROL, V16, P626 CHANGNON SA, 1980, ILLINOIS 3 CONSECUTI CHANGNON SA, 1982, WEATHERWISE, V35, P64 CHANGNON SA, 1994, LAKE MICHIGAN DIVERS CHANGNON SA, 1995, J WATER RES PL-ASCE, V121, P326 CHANGNON SA, 1995, MISCELLANEOUS PUBLIC, V167 CHANGNON SA, 1996, B AM METEOROL SOC, V77, P1497 CHANGNON SA, 1996, HAIL TEXAS CHANGNON SA, 1996, IMPACTS RESPONSES WE CHANGNON SA, 1997, B AM METEOROL SOC, V78, P425 CHANGNON SA, 1997, WORKSH SOC EC IMP WE, P19 COURT A, 1986, THUNDERSTORM MORPHOL, P9 DAVIS RE, 1993, INT J CLIMATOL, V13, P171 DEGAETANO AT, 1996, J CLIMATE, V9, P1646 DONOGHUE ER, 1997, AM J FOREN MED PATH, V18, P11 EDWARDS DC, 1997, 10 C APPL CLIM REN N, P188 ELLIOTT JM, 1972, FRESHWATER BIOL, V2, P1 GABRIEL KR, 1989, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V15, P455 GOLDEN J, 1997, WORKSH SOC EC IMP WE, P43 GRAZULIS TP, 1993, GEOPHYS MONOGR, V79, P459 GRAZULIS TP, 1993, SIGNIFICANT TORNADOE GRAZULIS TP, 1997, SIGNIFICANT TORNADOE GRAZULIS TP, 1998, 19 C SEV LOC STORMS, P196 HEBERT PJ, 1996, NHC31 NOAA NWS KALKSTEIN LS, 1989, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V79, P4 KALKSTEIN LS, 1995, 9 C APPL CLIM DALL, P217 KARL TR, 1995, CONSEQUENCES, V1, P3 KARL TR, 1995, NATURE, V377, P217 KARL TR, 1996, B AM METEOROL SOC, V77, P279 KARL TR, 1998, B AM METEOROL SOC, V79, P231 KILBOURNE EM, 1997, PUBLIC HLTH CONSEQUE, P245 KILBOURNE EM, 1997, PUBLIC HLTH CONSEQUE, P287 KITHIL R, 1997, WORKSH SOC EC IMP WE, P53 KNAPP HV, 1994, WATER INT, V19, P199 KOCIN PJ, 1990, METEOR MONOGR, V44 KOCIN PJ, 1995, B AM METEOROL SOC, V76, P165 KOCIN PJ, 1997, WORKSH SOC EC IMP WE, P55 KOCIN PJ, 1998, 16 C WEATH AN FOR PH, P421 KUNKEL KE, 1996, B AM METEOROL SOC, V77, P1507 KUNKEL KE, 1997, 10 C APPL CLIM REN N, P267 LANDSEA CW, 1996, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V23, P1697 LANDSEA CW, 1999, IN PRESS CLIMATIC CH LETTENMAIER DP, 1994, J CLIMATE, V7, P586 LINS HF, 1994, EOS, V75, P281 LINS HF, 1999, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V26, P227 MEYERS MF, 1997, WORKSH SOC EC IMP WE, P77 MEYERS MF, 1999, IN PRESS THUNDERSTOR MILLER KA, 1988, SOCIETAL RESPONSES R, P375 NESE VM, 1997, 10 C APPL CLIM REN N, P223 OSTBY FP, 1993, 17 C SEV LOC STORMS, P1 PARISH G, 1997, WORKSH SOC EC IMP WE, P87 PIELKE RA, 1996, MIDWEST FLOOD 1993 W PIELKE RA, 1997, HURRICANES THEIR NAT PIELKE RA, 1997, WORKSH SOC EC IMP WE PIELKE RA, 1997, WORKSH SOC EC IMP WE, P91 PIELKE RA, 1998, WEATHER FORECAST 2, V13, P621 PIELKE RA, 1999, IN PRESS CLIMATIC CH RIEBSAME WE, 1990, DROUGHT NATURAL RESO ROGERS JC, 1991, J CLIMATE, V4, P1103 ROTH RJ, 1996, IMPACTS RESPONSES WE, P101 SCHAEFER JT, 1993, TORNADO ITS STRUCTUR, V79, P459 SNELLING HJ, 1991, 7 C APPL CLIM SALT L, P127 THOMPSON LM, 1969, J SOIL WATER CONSERV, V24, P219 YEN CL, 1996, P 1 INT C NEW EM CON, V2, P555 ZEVIN SF, 1994, B AM METEOROL SOC, V75, P1267 ZHANG K, 1997, EOS T, V78, P389 NR 77 TC 39 J9 BULL AMER METEOROL SOC BP 1077 EP 1098 PY 1999 PD JUN VL 80 IS 6 GA 214RD UT ISI:000081340600002 ER PT J AU Dias, P Dissanayake, R Chandratilake, R TI Lessons learned from tsunami damage in Sri Lanka SO PROCEEDINGS OF THE INSTITUTION OF CIVIL ENGINEERS-CIVIL ENGINEERING LA English DT Article C1 Moratuwa Univ, Moratuwa, Sri Lanka. Univ Peradeniya, Peradeniya, Sri Lanka. RP Dias, P, Moratuwa Univ, Moratuwa, Sri Lanka. AB Around 300 000 people were killed by the tsunami that followed the Sumatra-Andaman earthquake on Boxing Day 2004, making it one of the worst disasters in modern history Up to 40 000 died in Sri Lanka alone, where around 80 000 houses were also destroyed when waves up to 15 m high swept ashore. This paper reports on how coastal buildings and infrastructure in Sri Lanka behaved under various tsunami wave heights and the many lessons learned for reducing vulnerability to future events. In particular, newly published national guidelines for reconstruction emphasise the importance of tying down structures against upward and lateral loads as well as the need to anticipate and reduce soil scour around foundations, especially of backfilled earth. CR *FED EM MAN AG, 2000, COAST CONSTR MAN PRI *MIN LOC GOV HOUS, 1980, DES BUILD HIGH WINDS *NAT TSUN HAZ MIT, 2001, DES TSUN *SOC STRUCT ENG SR, 2005, GUID BUILD RISK NAT DIAS P, 2005, INT S DIS RED COASTS DIAS WPS, 1994, STRUCTURAL ENG, V72, P25 NR 6 TC 0 J9 PROC INST CIVIL ENG-CIVIL ENG BP 74 EP 81 PY 2006 PD MAY VL 159 IS 2 GA 057ZS UT ISI:000238634400006 ER PT AU Blaikie, PM Cannon, T Davis, I Wisner, B TI At Risk SO RISK NATURAL HAZARDS LA English DT Book C1 University of East Anglia, School of Development Studies, UK University of Greenwich, Development Studies, UK Oxford Centre for Disaster Studies, UK Hampshire College, School of Social Science, Amherst, USA AB Disasters continue on a massive scale. Prediction, preparation, relief, and reconstruction have improved but the social causes of disasters remain largely unaddressed. At Risk reasserts the significance of the human factor in disasters. Establishing that the social, political, and economic environment is as much cause of disasters as the natural environment, the book argues hat disaster mitigation is rooter in te potential humans have to understand their vulnerability and to take common action. Analytical concepts are applied to the 'hazards that become disasters': famines and drought, biological hazards, floods, coastal storms, and earthquakes, volcanoes and landslides. At Risk draws some practical as well as some policy conclusions with a view to disaster reduction and the promotion of a safer environment CR BURTON I, 1978, ENV HAZARD, V1, P1 CHAMBERS R, 1989, IDS B, V20, P1 DOWNING TE, 1991, ASSESSING SOCIOECONO DOWNING TE, 1992, CLIMATE CHANGE VULNE DOWNING TE, 1989, COPING DROUGHT KENYA HAQUE CE, 1992, DISASTERS, V16, P217 LIVERMAN DM, 1990, UNDERSTANDING GLOBAL, V1, P27 QUARANTELLI EL, 1978, ANNU REV PSYCHOL, V3, P23 SEN AK, 1981, POVERTY FAMINES ESSA, V1, P1 SWIFT J, 1989, IDS B, V20, P8 TIMMERMAN P, 1981, ENV MONOGRAPH, V1, P1 WHITE GF, 1974, NATURAL HAZARDS LOCA, V1, P1 WISNER B, 1979, DISASTERS, V3, P293 NR 8 TC 0 BP 1 EP 284 PY 1994 VL 1 ER PT J AU JARMAN, A KOUZMPIN, A TI DISASTER MANAGEMENT AS CONTINGENT META-POLICY ANALYSIS - WATER-RESOURCE PLANNING SO TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 UNIV WESTERN SYDNEY, FAC COMMERCE, HAWKESBURY RD, WESTMEAD, NSW 2145, AUSTRALIA. UNIV CANBERRA, FAC MANAGEMENT, DEPT ADM STUDIES, BELCONNEN, ACT 2616, AUSTRALIA. AB Australia, an island continent the size of the U.S., often experiences floods, cyclones, droughts, earthquakes, and man-made disasters. As a federal system of government, there are many instances of institutional conflict involving water resource-related crisis management situations. This paper outlines a contingency-based policy making schema which seeks to define, and solve heuristically, various forms of conflict usually involving all three spheres of government (federal, state, and local). The contingency model is uniquely applied to the context of disaster management and so allows ''meta-policy'' strategies to be developed by governmental decision makers. In addition, the design of possible disaster management ''expert systems''is only now being recognized in Australia but constitutes an emerging element of global policy advice and planning capabilities. CR *AUSTR DEP RES EN, 1983, WAT 2000 PERSP AUSTR *COMM AUSTR, 1978, COMM ROL ASS PLANN D *COMM AUSTR, 1989, PERS GUID EARTH, P3 BARTON AH, 1969, COMMUNITIES DISASTER BREWER GD, 1983, F POLICY ANAL BRYANT E, 1991, AUSTR PLANNER, V29, P24 BURBY RJ, 1988, MONOGRAPH, V47 CAMERON KS, 1987, ACAD MANAGE J, V30, P126 CANNEGIETER CA, 1964, ECON REC, V40, P375 COHEN MD, 1972, ADM SCI Q, V17, P1 COMFORT LK, 1989, COPING CRISES MANAGE, P323 DORFMAN R, 1985, GLOBAL POSSIBLE RESO, P67 DROR Y, 1968, PUBLIC POLICY MAKING ECKEL K, 1989, SATELLITE COMMUNICAT ECKSTEIN O, 1958, WATER RESOURCE DEV EMERY FE, 1965, HUM RELAT, V18, P21 FREIDMAN LS, 1991, J POLICY ANAL MANAG, V10, P343 GREEN CC, 1973, WATER CYCLE CONCEPTS HADDEN SG, 1989, J POLICY ANAL MANAG, V8, P203 HALL P, 1982, GREAT PLANNING DISAS HANDMER JW, 1991, NEGOTIATING CONFLICT, P3 HEWITT K, 1983, INTERPRETATIONS CALA JARMAN AMG, 1983, INT J CONT CRISES LA, V14, P399 JARMAN AMG, 1991, CRISIS MANAGEMENT DE, P123 JARMAN AMG, 1991, NATIONAL C P, V2, P523 JARMAN AMG, 1992, NATURAL DISASTERS SP JARMAN AMG, 1993, DEV ASIA PACIFIC PUB JARMAN AMG, 1994, INT REV ADM SCI, V60 KAHRL WL, 1982, WATER POWER CONFLICT KANNEGEITER T, 1992, CIVIL ENG AUSTR 1002, P20 KIM TJ, 1990, EXPERT SYSTEMS APPLI KOUZMIN A, 1989, COPING CRISIS MANAGE, P397 KOUZMIN A, 1990, 12TH WORLD C SOC MAD, P1 KOUZMIN A, 1990, ASIAN REV PUBLIC ADM, V2, P88 KOUZMIN A, 1990, DYNAMICS AUSTR PUBLI LAMBLEY DB, 1990, AUST J PUBL ADMIN, V49, P431 LAPORTE TR, 1991, J PUBL ADM RES THEOR, V1, P19 LINDBLOM CE, 1959, PUBLIC ADMIN REV, V19, P79 MAY PJ, 1991, J PUBLIC POLICY, V11, P187 MCPHEE J, 1989, CONTROL NATURE MITROFF II, 1988, SLOAN MANAGE REV, V29, P15 MUSGRAVE WF, 1965, ECON REC, V40, P262 MYERS N, 1985, GLOBAL POSSIBLE RESO, P477 ORTOLANO L, 1990, EXPERT SYSTEMS APPL, P3 PERROW C, 1984, NORMAL ACCIDENTS LIV PLOWDEN W, 1987, ADVISING RULERS POLLITT C, 1990, J SOC POLICY, V19, P169 QUADE ES, 1985, ANAL PUBLIC DECISION REPETTO R, 1985, GLOBAL POSSIBLE RESO ROMZEK BS, 1987, PUBLIC ADMIN REV, V47, P227 ROSENTHAL U, 1989, COPING CRISES MANAGE, P3 ROSENTHAL U, 1989, COPING CRISIS MANAGE ROSENTHAL U, 1991, CRISIS MANAGEMENT DE, P1 ROSENTHAL U, 1991, PUBLIC ADMIN, V69, P211 RUVIN H, 1991, AM CITY COUNTY MAY, P56 SCHUTZER D, 1987, ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGE SCOTT P, 1992, HERD WHITE ELEPHANTS SHANGRAW RF, 1989, PUBLIC ADMIN REV, V49, P153 SIMON HA, 1957, ADM BEHAVIOR SMITH DI, 1989, NEW SCI 1111, P24 STARBUCK WH, 1988, J MANAGE STUD, V25, P319 STARR JR, 1991, FOREIGN POLICY, P17 STAW BM, 1989, SCIENCE, V246, P216 THART P, 1993, ADMIN SOC, V25, P12 THOMPSON JD, 1967, ORG ACTION TITUS JG, 1990, J AM PLANN ASSOC, V56, P311 TOSI HL, 1984, J MANAGE, V10, P9 VENKATRAMAN N, 1990, J MANAGE STUD, V27, P19 WALTON RE, 1972, INTERORGANIZATIONAL, P94 WHITE GF, 1975, ASSESSMENT RES NATUR, V1, P1 WILDAVSKY A, 1984, POLITICS BUDGETARY P WILLNER RA, 1984, SPELL BINDERS CHARIS ZEHNE RR, 1991, AUSTR PLANNER, V29, P33 NR 73 TC 2 J9 TECHNOL FORECAST SOC CHANGE BP 119 EP 130 PY 1994 PD FEB VL 45 IS 2 GA NN982 UT ISI:A1994NN98200002 ER PT J AU Mertens, B Lambin, EF TI Land-cover-change trajectories in southern Cameroon SO ANNALS OF THE ASSOCIATION OF AMERICAN GEOGRAPHERS LA English DT Article C1 Univ Catholique Louvain, Dept Geog, B-1348 Louvain, Belgium. RP Mertens, B, Ctr Int Forestry Res, JKPWB, POB 6596, Jakarta 10065, Indonesia. AB The objective of this study is to better understand the complexity of deforestation processes in southern Cameroon by testing a multivariate, spatial model of land-cover change trajectories associated with deforestation. The spatial model integrates a spectrum of independent variables that characterize land rent on a spatially explicit basis. The use of a time series of high-spatial-resolution remote sensing images (Landsat MSS and SPOT XS), spanning two decades, allows a thorough validation of spatial projections of future deforestation. Remote sensing observations reveal a continuous trend of forest clearing and forest degradation in southern regions of Cameroon, but with a highly fluctuating rate. A significant proportion of the areas subject to a land-cover conversion experienced other changes in the following years. The study also demonstrates that modeling land-cover change trajectories over several observation years allows a better projection of areas with a high probability of change in land-cover than projecting such areas on the basis of observations from the previous time period alone. Statistical results suggest that, in our southern Cameroon study area, roads mostly increased the accessibility of the forest for migrants rather than providing incentives for a transformation of local subsistence agriculture into market-oriented farming systems. The spacial model developed in this study allows simulations of likely impacts of human actions, leading to a transformation of the landscape (e.g., road projects) on key landscape attributes (e.g., biodiversity). Currently, several road projects or major logging concessions exist in southern Cameroon. CR *MINEF, 1995, NAT FOR ACT PROGR CA *MINEF, 1996, PLAN NAT GEST LIENV, V1 *SAS I, 1989, SAS STAT US GUID VER, V1 *UN FAO, 1995, 112 UN FAO *UN FAO, 1996, RES FOR GEN RES, V24 AGRESTI A, 1990, CATEGORICAL DATA ANA ALVES DS, 1996, INT J REMOTE SENS, V17, P835 ARBIA G, 1989, SPATIAL DATA CONFIGU ATAYI EA, 1980, MARKET FOOD CROPS E BIAN L, 1997, PHOTOGRAMM ENG REM S, V63, P161 BOSERUP E, 1965, CONDITIONS AGR GROWT BROWN K, 1994, CAUSES TROPICAL DEFO BROWN S, 1990, J TROP ECOL, V6, P1 BROWN S, 1993, EFFECTS LAND USE CHA CHOMITZ KM, 1996, WORLD BANK ECON REV, V10, P487 CONGALTON RG, 1991, REMOTE SENS ENVIRON, V37, P35 COPPIN PR, 1996, REMOTE SENSING REV, V13, P207 DOMENCICH TA, 1975, URBAN TRAVEL DEMAND FINIFTER R, 1996, AUPELF UREF, V96, P1 FISCHER G, 1996, WP96010 IIASA GASTELLUETCHEGO.JP, 1988, TIJDSCHR ECON SOC GE, V79, P93 HOSMER DW, 1989, APPL REGRESSION ANAL JAKUBAUSKAS ME, 1990, PHOTOGRAMM ENG REM S, V56, P371 JOBSON JD, 1992, APPL MULTIVARIATE DA, V2 JONES DW, 1992, ECOL ECON, V6, P79 JONES DW, 1993, J REGIONAL SCI, V33, P457 KAIMOWITZ D, 1997, EC MODELS TROPICAL D KARSENTY A, 1993, ETUDE MODALITES EXPL KARSHENAS M, 1994, DEV CHANGE, V25, P723 KASPERSON JX, 1995, REGIONS RISK, V1, P1 LAMBIN EF, 1994, 1 15744 EUR EN LAMBIN EF, 1997, PROG PHYS GEOG, V21, P375 LIU DS, 1993, FOREST ECOL MANAG, V57, P1 LUCAS RM, 1993, INT J REMOTE SENS, V14, P3061 LUDEKE AK, 1990, J ENVIRON MANAGE, V31, P247 MACLEOD RD, 1998, PHOTOGRAMM ENG REM S, V64, P207 MARKHAM BL, 1987, REMOTE SENS ENVIRON, V22, P39 MARTIN D, 1966, CARTE PEDOLOGIQUE CA MATHERON G, 1970, THEORIE VARIABLES RE MENARD S, 1995, QUANTITATIVE APPL SO MERTENS B, 1997, APPL GEOGR, V17, P143 MERTENS B, 2000, WORLD DEV, V28, P983 MEYER WB, 1994, CHANGES LAND USE LAN MILCHENER WK, 1997, PHOTOGRAMMETRIC ENG, V63, P1363 MUCHONEY DM, 1994, PHOTOGRAMM ENG REM S, V60, P1243 NARUMALANI S, 1997, PHOTOGRAMM ENG REM S, V63, P41 PANAYOTOU T, 1989, 284 CAMBR HARV I INT PEREIRA JMC, 1991, PHOTOGRAMM ENG REM S, V57, P1475 PILON PG, 1988, PHOTOGRAMMETRIC ENG, V54, P1709 POKAM J, 1996, MIGRATIONS ZONE FORE PRESS SJ, 1978, J AM STAT ASSOC, V73, P699 RIEBSAME WE, 1994, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V28, P45 SADER SA, 1988, BIOTROPICA, V20, P11 SADER SA, 1995, PHOTOGRAMM ENG REM S, V61, P1145 SAYER AS, 1992, CONSERVATION ATLAS T SOUTHGATE D, 1990, LAND ECON, V66, P93 STOKES MA, 1995, CATEGORICAL DATA ANA STONE SW, 1998, USING GEOGRAPHIC INF STOW DA, 1980, P 14 INT S REM SENS, P1227 TUCKER CJ, 1991, SCIENCE, V253, P299 VANCLAY JK, 1995, EC EC C COFFS HARB N, P78 WALKER RT, 1987, GEOGR ANAL, V19, P18 WRIGLEY N, 1985, CATEGORICAL DATA ANA NR 63 TC 35 J9 ANN ASSN AMER GEOGR BP 467 EP 494 PY 2000 PD SEP VL 90 IS 3 GA 354XG UT ISI:000089356100002 ER PT J AU Turner, MD TI Methodological reflections on the use of remote sensing and geographic information science in human ecological research SO HUMAN ECOLOGY LA English DT Review C1 Univ Wisconsin, Dept Geog, Madison, WI 53706 USA. RP Turner, MD, Univ Wisconsin, Dept Geog, 384 Sci Hall,550 Pk St, Madison, WI 53706 USA. AB Environmental analysts increasingly utilize remote sensing (RS) and geographic information science (GIS) techniques to study the relationship between human societies and their biophysical environment. This paper considers the influence these techniques have had on environmental research. Using the case of the Sahel, the paper first relates contemporary applications of RS/GIS to the history of the environmental scientific practice in the region. While facilitating an expansion of spatiotemporal scales, applications of these new techniques continue the methodological failings of the past by relying on visual measures of environmental change and problematic indicators of human land-use pressures. The human ecology fields ( human, cultural, and political ecologies), by emphasizing the causal connections between local management and environmental change, can address the problems inherent with the spatial analytical turn in environmental science. Using the author's experience with the use of GIS in a political ecology study of grazing management in western Niger, ways of more closely integrating RS/GIS techniques into human ecological research are discussed. 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CHEMOSPHERE, V29, P1001 GUYER JI, 1993, AM ANTHROPOL, V95, P839 HAACK B, 1996, WORLD DEV, V24, P845 HANAN NP, 1991, INT J REMOTE SENS, V12, P1243 HANAN NP, 1991, J APPL ECOL, V28, P173 HANSEN TS, 1998, GEOGRAFISK TIDSSKRIF, V98, P56 HAYWOOD M, 1980, CHANGES LAND USE VEG HELLDEN U, 1991, AMBIO, V20, P372 HIERNAUX P, 1988, ILCA B, V32, P14 HIERNAUX P, 1997, SOIL FERTILITY MANAG, P339 HIERNAUX P, 1998, PLANT ECOL, V138, P191 HIERNAUX P, 1999, ACTA OECOL, V20, P147 HIERNAUX P, 1999, J ARID ENVIRON, V41, P231 HIERNAUX PHY, 1986, INT J REMOTE SENS, V7, P1515 HIERNAUX PHY, 1986, INT J REMOTE SENS, V7, P1515 HOESCHELE W, 2000, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V90, P293 HOMERDIXON TF, 1993, SCI AM FEB, P38 HOPEN C, 1958, PASTORAL FULBE FAMIL HUBERT H, 1919, B COMITE ETUDES HIST, P98 HUBERT H, 1920, B COMITE ETUDES HIST, P401 HUETE AR, 1991, INT J REMOTE SENS, V12, P1223 HULME M, 1989, GEOGRAPHY, V74, P38 JACOBBERGER PA, 1988, GEOL SOC AM BULL, V100, P351 JAGTAP SS, 1999, GEOJOURNAL, V47, P573 KAMMERUD TA, 1993, INFLUENCE SOLS OBSER KAPLAN RD, 1994, ATLANTIC MONTHLY FEB, P44 LAMBIN EF, 1988, AFRICA, V58, P337 LAMBIN EF, 1997, PROG PHYS GEOG, V21, P375 LATOUR B, 1999, PANDORAS HOPE ESSAYS LAYCOCK WA, 1991, J RANGE MANAGE, V44, P427 LEACH M, 1996, LIE LAND LELE SM, 1991, WORLD DEV, V19, P607 LEPRIEUR C, 1996, INT J REMOTE SENS, V17, P2549 LITTLE PD, 1994, POPULATION ENV RETHI, P209 LOSEEN D, 1995, REMOTE SENS ENVIRON, V52, P194 LOUDJANI P, 1993, APPORT DONNEES SATEL MARSH SE, 1992, INT J REMOTE SENS, V13, P2997 MERTENS B, 2000, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V90, P467 MICHEL JF, 1999, REV ELEV MED VET PAY, V52, P25 MIDDLETON N, 1997, WORLD ATLAS DESERTIF MILICH L, 2000, INT J REMOTE SENS, V21, P235 MILICH L, 2000, INT J REMOTE SENS, V21, P261 MOLEELE N, 2001, INT J REMOTE SENS, V22, P741 MORTIMORE MJ, 1989, ADAPTING DROUGHT FAR MOUGIN E, 1995, REMOTE SENS ENVIRON, V52, P181 NEUMANN RP, 1995, ANTIPODE, V27, P363 PELUSO NL, 1993, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V3, P199 PICKUP G, 1988, INT J REMOTE SENS, V9, P1469 POWELL JM, 1995, LIVESTOCK SUSTAINABL PRATT DJ, 1977, RANGELAND MANAGEMENT PRINCE SD, 1991, INT J REMOTE SENS, V12, P1301 RASMUSSEN MS, 1999, GEOGRAFISK TIDSSKRIF, V99, P165 REENBERG A, 1994, J ARID ENVIRON, V27, P179 REENBERG A, 1998, HUM ECOL, V26, P599 RIBOT J, 1990, MARKETS STATES ENV P RIBOT JC, 1996, CLIMATE VARIABILITY, V1, P1 RIBOT JC, 1999, GLOBAL ECOL BIOGEOGR, V8, P291 RINDFUSS RR, 1998, PEOPLE PIXELS LINKIN, P1 RINGROSE S, 1996, APPL GEOGR, V16, P225 ROE EM, 1991, WORLD DEV, V19, P287 SCHROEDER RA, 1999, SHADY PRACTICES AGRO STAMP LD, 1940, GEOGR REV, V30, P297 STEBBING EP, 1935, GEOGR J, V85, P506 STENNING DJ, 1960, CULTURES SOC AFRICA, P139 STODDART LA, 1975, RANGE MANAGEMENT SWIFT J, 1996, LIE LAND CHALLENGING, P73 TAYLOR P, 1992, RIGHT TOOL JOB WORK, P115 THIERY JM, 1995, J ECOL, V83, P497 THOMAS DSG, 1993, GEOGR J, V159, P318 TOUNSI I, 1995, UTILISATION SYSTEMES TUCKER CJ, 1991, SCIENCE, V253, P299 TURNER M, 1993, ECON GEOGR, V69, P402 TURNER MD, 1998, INT J REMOTE SENS, V19, P21 TURNER MD, 1998, J BIOGEOGR, V25, P669 TURNER MD, 1998, NATURES GEOGRAPHY NE, P237 TURNER MD, 1999, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V89, P191 TURNER MD, 1999, J ARID ENVIRON, V41, P277 TURNER MD, 1999, LAND DEGRAD DEV, V10, P343 TURNER MD, 2002, LANDSCAPE ECOL, V17, P367 VALENTIN C, 1985, SOIL EROSION CONSERV, P51 VALENZA J, 1981, REV ELEV MED VET PAY, V34, P83 VANBEUSEKOM MM, 1999, ENVIRON HIST, V4, P198 VANKEULEN H, 1990, AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON, V32, P177 WATTS MJ, 1983, INTERPRETATIONS CALA, P231 WESTOBY M, 1989, J RANGE MANAGE, V42, P266 WEZEL A, 1998, J ARID ENVIRON, V40, P269 WYLIE BK, 1992, GEOCARTA INT, V1, P79 NR 134 TC 1 J9 HUM ECOL BP 255 EP 279 PY 2003 PD JUN VL 31 IS 2 GA 684KK UT ISI:000183205700005 ER PT J AU Christie, P Fluharty, DL White, AT Eisma-Osorio, L Jatulan, W TI Assessing the feasibility of ecosystem-based fisheries management in tropical contexts SO MARINE POLICY LA English DT Article C1 Univ Washington, Sch Marine Affairs, Seattle, WA 98105 USA. Univ Washington, Henry M Jackson Sch Int Studies, Seattle, WA 98105 USA. Tetra Tech EM Inc, Cebu, Philippines. FISH, Cebu, Philippines. CCEF, Cebu 6000, Philippines. RP Christie, P, Univ Washington, Sch Marine Affairs, 3707 Brooklyn Ave NE, Seattle, WA 98105 USA. AB This analysis documents the reasons for emerging interest in ecosystem-based fisheries management (EBFM) and relates this management model to others. It highlights the central challenges to EBFM in the tropical context and examines an ongoing project, Fisheries Improved for Sustainable Harvest (FISH), in the Philippines-likely the first EBFM project in the tropics. The Philippine legal and institutional context provides major governance challenges to EBFM, especially as management is scaled tip. A monitoring framework with process and output criteria is applied to FISH to establish progress to date. Major institutional and governance challenges for EBFM will require monitoring, evaluation, and adaptation. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *DEP AGR BUR FISH, 2004, TURB SEAS STAT PHIL, P378 *DEP ENV NAT RES, 2001, PHIL COAST MAN GUID *EC PRINC ADV PAN, 1999, REP C EC BAS FISH MA *EC VIS COMM, 2004, EC SCI SUST CROWD PL *FAO, 2003, EC APPR FISH FOOD AG, V4 *FAO, 2003, EC APPR FISH, V4 *U RHOD ISL, 1998, FRAM MON ASS SOC GOV ALCALA AC, 2002, ASIAN FISHERIES SCI, V15, P177 ALINO PM, 2004, TURBULENT SEAS STATU, P65 BABCOCK EA, 2004, B MAR SCI, V74, P685 BARUT NC, 2004, TURBULENT SEAS STATU, P22 BRECHIN SR, 2003, CONTESTED NATURE PRO BROWMAN HI, 2005, MAR ECOL-PROG SER, V300, P241 CHRISTENSEN NL, 1996, ECOL APPL, V6, P665 CHRISTIE P, 1997, COAST MANAGE, V25, P155 CHRISTIE P, 2002, J ENVIRON MANAGE, V66, P441 CHRISTIE P, 2003, FISHERIES, V28, P22 CHRISTIE P, 2005, OCEAN COAST MANAGE, V48, P208 CHRISTIE P, 2005, OCEAN COAST MANAGE, V48, P468 CHRISTIE P, 2006, COASTAL ENV FISHERIE, P63 CIANNELLI L, 2004, ECOLOGICAL APPL, V16, P942 COURTNEY CA, 2000, COAST MANAGE, V28, P39 CRUZTRINIDAD A, 1998, TAMBULI, V4, P17 DEGUIT ET, 2004, PARTICIPATORY COASTA, P134 DELAMARE WK, 2004, MAR POLICY, V29, P57 EISMA RLV, 2005, OCEAN COAST MANAGE, V48, P336 FLUHARTY D, 2005, MAR ECOL-PROG SER, V300, P248 FOWLER CW, 2004, MAR FISH REV, V65, P1 GABLE F, 2004, NMFSNE184 NOAA GARCIA SM, 2003, 443 FAO GREEN SJ, 2003, PHILIPPINE FISHERIES, P77 GREEN SJ, 2004, FISHERIES CENTRAL VI HANNA SS, 1998, ECOL APPL S, V8, S170 HENNESSEY TM, 2005, SUSTAINING LARGE MAR HOLLIDAY MC, 2004, NOAA FISH EC SOC SCI HUTCHINGS JA, 2004, NATURE, V428, P899 JOHANNES RE, 1981, WORDS LAGOON FISHING JOHANNES RE, 2000, FISH FISH, V1, P257 JUDA L, 2001, OCEAN DEV INT LAW, V32, P43 KACZYNSKI VM, 2002, MAR POLICY, V26, P75 KATES RW, 2001, SCIENCE, V292, P641 KOCK KH, 2000, UNDERSTANDING CCAMLR LINK JS, 2002, FISHERIES, V27, P18 LOWRY K, 2005, OCEAN COAST MANAGE, V48, P314 LUBCHENKO J, 2005, SCI CONSENSUS STATEM MILNE N, 2004, COAST MANAGE, V32, P61 MILNE N, 2005, OCEAN COAST MANAGE, V48, P427 MORRIS AD, 1992, FRONTIERS SOCIAL MOV MUNRO G, 2004, 465 FAO MURAWSKI SA, 2000, ICES J MAR SCI, V57, P649 MYERS N, 1988, ENVIRON CONSERV, V15, P205 MYERS RA, 2003, NATURE, V423, P280 OLSEN R, 2005, OCEAN COAST MANAGE, V48, P411 OLSEN S, 2000, COAST MANAGE, V28, P5 PAULY D, 1998, SCIENCE, V279, P860 PAULY D, 2000, TAMBULI, P23 PIKITCH EK, 2004, SCIENCE, V305, P346 PITCHER TJ, 2004, SUSTAINABLE MANAGEME, V43 ROGERS EM, 1995, DIFFUSION INNOVATION RUDD MA, 2003, ECOLOGICAL EC, V48, P109 RUDDLE K, 1994, 869 FAO SHERMAN K, 1999, FISHERIES, V24, P15 SHERMAN K, 1999, MAR ECOL-PROG SER, V190, P271 SHERMAN K, 2005, MAR ECOL-PROG SER, V300, P275 STEINBERG PE, 2001, SOCIAL CONSTRUCTION TORRELL M, 2002, I ISSUES PERSPECTIVE WANG HL, 2004, OCEAN DEV INT LAW, V35, P267 WHITE AT, 1998, VALUES PHILIPPINE CO, P96 WHITE AT, 2000, MAR POLLUT BULL, V40, P537 WHITE AT, 2002, COAST MANAGE, V30, P1 WHITE AT, 2004, TURBULENT SEAS STATU, P84 WHITE AT, 2005, OCEAN COAST MANAGE, V48, P271 WITHERELL D, 1999, INCORPORATING ECOSYS WITHERELL D, 2000, ICES J MAR SCI, V57, P771 NR 74 TC 0 J9 MAR POLICY BP 239 EP 250 PY 2007 PD MAY VL 31 IS 3 GA 138WK UT ISI:000244393800002 ER PT J AU Liso, KR TI Integrated approach to risk management of future climate change impacts SO BUILDING RESEARCH AND INFORMATION LA English DT Article C1 Norwegian Bldg Res Inst, N-0314 Oslo, Norway. Norwegian Univ Sci & Technol, Dept Civil & Transport Engn, N-7491 Trondheim, Norway. RP Liso, KR, Norwegian Bldg Res Inst, POB 123 Blindern, N-0314 Oslo, Norway. AB The vulnerability of the built environment will be influenced by global-scale climate change. However, there are large uncertainties associated with the future performance of buildings due: to changes in regional- and local-scale climatic impact. The use of modern risk-management theories is discussed for developing cross-disciplinary strategies to meet the challenges of future climate change. It is shown that there are benefits to be gained from the introduction of risk-management strategies within a greater extent of the construction industry. Cross-disciplinary risk-based management strategies (ensuring cooperation along vertical decision-making lines), together with design guidelines that account for both historical local climatic conditions and scenarios for future changes, can be an important step towards a more active and dynamic way of ensuring a high-quality construction process and a sustainable built environment. Reducing the potential for defects or damage through the development of technical and organizational preventive measures (a risk-based management strategy) while at the same time applying the precautionary principle and discursive strategies in the design, construction and geographical localization of buildings, is likely to increase the robustness of the built environment in the light of the unknown risks of future climate change. CR *INT STAND ORG, 2002, 732002 ISOIEC *NORG OFF UTR, 2000, 200024 NOU STAT FORV AVEN T, 2003, FDN RISK ANAL KNOWLE COMERIO MC, 2004, BUILD RES INF, V32, P403 DUNCAN J, 2005, BUILD RES INF, V33, P120 DUPLESSIS C, 2003, BUILD RES INF, V31, P240 HASSELMANN K, 2003, SCIENCE, V302, P1923 HERTIN J, 2003, BUILD RES INF, V31, P278 INGVALDSEN T, 1994, 163 NORW BUILD RES I JAEGER CC, 2001, RISK UNCERTAINTY RAT KARL TR, 2003, SCIENCE, V302, P1719 KLINKE A, 2001, J RISK RES, V4, P159 LARSSON N, 2003, BUILD RES INF, V31, P231 LISO KR, 2000, 10146 NORW BUILD RES LISO KR, 2003, BUILD RES INF, V31, P200 LISO KR, 2005, BUILD RES INF, V33, P41 LISO KR, 2005, P 7 S BUILD PHYS NOR LOWE R, 2001, 0104 CRISP LEED METR MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 MEHUS J, 2004, 379 NORW BUILD RES I MELOYSUND V, IN PRESS J STRUCTURA METZ B, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 MILLS E, 2003, BUILD RES INF, V31, P257 NAESS LO, 2002, I DIMENSIONS CLIMATE NORDVIK V, 2004, CONSTRUCTION MANAGEM, V22, P765 OBRIEN KL, 2004, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V64, P193 OYEN CF, 2005, P 7 S BUILD PHYS NOR RASMUSSEN J, 1997, SAFETY SCI, V27, P183 SANDERS CH, 2003, BUILD RES INF, V31, P210 SHIMODA Y, 2003, BUILD RES INF, V31, P222 SPENCE R, 2004, BUILD RES INF, V32, P364 SPENCE R, 2004, BUILD RES INF, V32, P391 STEEMERS K, 2003, BUILD RES INF, V31, P291 WHITE RR, 2004, BUILD RES INF, V32, P438 YOHE GW, 2002, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V12, P25 NR 35 TC 0 J9 BUILDING RES INFORM BP 1 EP 10 PY 2006 PD JAN-FEB VL 34 IS 1 GA 003AY UT ISI:000234655200001 ER PT J AU Watson, RT TI Turning science into policy: challenges and experiences from the science-policy interface SO PHILOSOPHICAL TRANSACTIONS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY B-BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES LA English DT Article C1 World Bank, Washington, DC 20433 USA. RP Watson, RT, World Bank, Mailstop MC4 408,1818 H St NW, Washington, DC 20433 USA. AB This paper discusses key issues in the science-policy interface. It stresses the importance of linking the conservation and sustainable use of biodiversity to the Millennium Development Goals and to issues of immediate concern to policy-makers such as the economy, security and human health. It briefly discusses the process of decision-making and how the scientific and policy communities have successfully worked together on global environmental issues such as stratospheric ozone depletion and climate change, and the critical role of international assessments in providing the scientific basis for informed policy at the national and international level. The paper also discusses the drivers of global environmental change, the importance of constructing plausible futures, indicators of change, the biodiversity 2010 target and how environmental issues such as loss of biodiversity, stratospheric ozone depletion, land degradation, water pollution and climate change cannot be addressed in isolation because they are strongly interconnected and there are synergies and trade-offs among the policies, practices and technologies that are used to address these issues individually. CR 2003, MILLENNIUM ECOSYSTEM *CBD, 2003, INT BIOL DIV CLIM CH MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 *IPCC, 2001, CLIM CHANG 2001 MIT *IPCC, 2001, CLIM CHANG 2001 SCI *IPCC, 2001, CLIM CHANG 2001 SYNT *IPCC, 2002, IPCC TECHN PAP, V5 *STAP, 2004, OPP GLOB GAIN EXPL I *UNEP, 1999, SYNTH REP SCI ENV EF HEYWOOD VH, 1995, GLOBAL BIODIVERSITY WATSON RT, 1998, PROTECTING OUR PLANE WATSON RT, 2004, RESP GROWTH NEW MILL NR 12 TC 1 J9 PHIL TRANS ROY SOC B-BIOL SCI BP 471 EP 477 PY 2005 PD FEB 28 VL 360 IS 1454 GA 914GA UT ISI:000228214600019 ER PT J AU Kullenberg, G TI Regional co-development and security: a comprehensive approach SO OCEAN & COASTAL MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article C1 Int Ocean Inst, Headquarters, Gzira, Malta. RP Kullenberg, G, Int Ocean Inst, Headquarters, POB 3, Gzira, Malta. AB Concepts of security are no longer limited to the military form, but other potential, economic, ecological, social aspects are becoming included. Emphasis needs to be put on integration of all dimensions of security. Many environmental problems present threats to human health and welfare and hence to the well-being of nations. The environmental issues cannot be ignored in context of any comprehensive security concept, but environmental security should not be treated in isolation. Integration of sustainable development and regional security may address many of the current maritime issues. Such integration may best be handled jointly and at regional levels. With this in mind and the realization that there is now a clear awareness and understanding that issues such as poverty, underdevelopment, population growth, environmental quality and sustainable resource use, are interrelated and interdependent and must be dealt with as such, the paper aims to highlight some aspects of regional security and sustainable development issues with reference to the Mediterranean basin. The aim is to initiate a process to pursue integration of sustainable development and comprehensive regional security with focus on the Mediterranean. The approach is based on the concept of the Common Heritage of Mankind as proposed by Arvid Pardo in 1967. It has 4 dimensions: economic; ethical; environmental; peace and security. In dealing with the proposal of Arvid Pardo the United Nations General Assembly decided to split up the concept: the Conference on the Law of the Sea was to deal with the peaceful uses of oceans and sea-beds; the Conference on Disarmament with the security aspects, then considered as military. UNCED 92 maintained the separation in addressing only environment and development, with management also included. However, peace and security were not included. It is time now to include these elements, and also consider the enforcement issue. The paper aims at illustrating this need through some examples from the Mediterranean basin. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *UNEP, 1999, MED ACT PLAN STRAT A BORGESE EM, 1997, UN NEW HORIZONS PERS, P23 BORGESE EM, 1998, OCEANIC CIRCLE GOVER BORGESE EM, 2001, OCEAN GOVERNANCE KULLENBERG G, 2000, REPORT LEADERSHIP SE POULOS SE, 2002, GEOLOGICAL SOC LONDO, V191, P227 NR 6 TC 0 J9 OCEAN COAST MANAGE BP 761 EP 776 PY 2002 VL 45 IS 11-12 GA 662HY UT ISI:000181942300003 ER PT J AU Kone, B Cisse, G Houenou, PV Obrist, B Wyss, K Odermatt, P Tanner, M TI Health risk due to lagoon water pollution in a west African metropolis: Vulnerability and resilience of neighbouring communities SO EPIDEMIOLOGY LA English DT Meeting Abstract C1 Univ Abobo Adjame, Abidjan, Cote Ivoire. Swiss Ctr Sci Res, Abidjan, Cote Ivoire. Swiss Trop Inst, CH-4002 Basel, Switzerland. NR 0 TC 0 J9 EPIDEMIOLOGY BP S197 EP S197 PY 2006 PD NOV VL 17 IS 6 GA 097JL UT ISI:000241443401028 ER PT J AU Laney, RM TI Disaggregating induced intensiffication for land-change analysis: A case study from Madagascar SO ANNALS OF THE ASSOCIATION OF AMERICAN GEOGRAPHERS LA English DT Article C1 Sonoma State Univ, Dept Geog, Rohnert Pk, CA 94928 USA. RP Laney, RM, Sonoma State Univ, Dept Geog, Rohnert Pk, CA 94928 USA. AB This study investigates smallholder responses to land pressure in the Andapa region of Madagascar. Recent enforcement of conservation laws has abruptly closed the agricultural frontier, and development experts warn of land degradation if exogenous support is not forthcoming. To evaluate responses, the study identifies adaptive and maladaptive management strategies by production sector instead of by production system, allowing for a more precise linkage between strategies and associated land change. Results reveal a remarkably positive response to land pressure, with significant expansion of both market tree crops and irrigated rice fields. Yet, the study also finds excessive cropping frequency in the hill-rice sector, demonstrating independently motivated and environmentally inconsistent strategies within production systems. This evidence calls for a new formulation of the induced intensification thesis's bipolar model predicting either adaptive or maladaptive change. It also suggests that exogenous policies, such as those designed to promote environmentally preferred production sectors in order to substitute for less desirable sectors, may not have their desired effect in Andapa. Aggregating data to identify broad-level trajectories of change reveals incommensurate results across levels of analysis, highlighting a scale dynamic anticipated by spatial geographers but inadequately addressed in human-environment literatures. 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RP Adger, WN, Univ E Anglia, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. AB A framework for analyzing social vulnerability is outlined, an aspect largely underemphasized in assessments of the impacts of climate change and climate extremes. Vulnerability is defined in this paper as the exposure of individuals or collective groups to livelihood stress as a result of the impacts of such environmental change. It is constituted by individual and collective aspects which can be disaggregated, but are linked through the political economy of markets and institutions. Research in coastal northern Vietnam shows that baseline social vulnerability is enhanced by some institutional and economic factors associated with Vietnam's economic transition from central planning, namely the breakdown of collective action on protection from extreme events and an increasingly skewed income. Offsetting these trends are other institutional changes associated with the dynamic nature of the economic restructuring and evolution of the market transition in Vietnam, which decrease vulnerability. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science Ltd, All rights reserved. CR *WORLD BANK, 1995, VIETN POV ASS STRAT *WORLD MET ORG, 1996, CLIM CHANG 1995 IMP ADGER WN, 1996, 9605 U E ANGL U COLL ADGER WN, 1997, 9706 U E ANGL U COLL ADGER WN, 1997, 9723 U E ANGL U COLL ADGER WN, 1998, IPCC WORKSH AD CLIM BAILEY C, 1996, SOC NATUR RESOUR, V9, P191 BALAND JM, 1997, OXFORD ECON PAP, V49, P451 BAULCH B, 1996, IDS BULL-I DEV STUD, V27, P1 BERRY S, 1993, NO CONDITION IS PERM BLACKWOOD DL, 1994, WORLD DEV, V22, P567 BLAIKIE PM, 1994, RISK NATURAL HAZARDS, V1, P1 BOHLE HG, 1994, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V4, P37 BURTON I, 1978, ENV HAZARD, V1, P1 BURTON I, 1997, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V36, P185 CANNON T, 1994, DISASTERS DEV ENV, P13 CHAMBERS R, 1983, RURAL DEV PUTTING LA CHAMBERS R, 1989, IDS B, V20, P1 CHEN RS, 1994, IND ECOLOGY GLOBAL C, P85 DAVIES S, 1996, ADAPTABLE LIVELIHOOD DIGREGORIO M, 1997, EUR 3 BIANN C CTR AS DOW KM, 1996, THESIS CLARK U WORCE DOW KM, 1999, IN PRESS GEOGRAPHICA DOWNING TE, 1991, 911 BROWN U WORLD HU ELLIS F, 1998, J DEV STUD, V35, P1 FOSTER J, 1984, ECONOMETRICA, V52, P761 GLEWWE P, 1990, WORLD DEV, V18, P803 HEWITT K, 1983, INTERPRETATIONS CALA HEWITT K, 1997, REGIONS RISK GEOGRAP, V1, P1 JORDAN A, 1995, 9521 U E ANGL CTR SO KASPERSON RE, 1995, REGIONS RISK COMP TH, P1 KERKVLIET BJT, 1995, J ASIAN STUD, V54, P396 KOLKO G, 1997, VIETNAM ANATOMY PEAC LEACH M, 1997, 359 U SUSS I DEV STU LUONG HV, 1992, REVOLUTION VILLAGE T MACHLIS GE, 1990, RURAL SOCIOL, V55, P411 MALARNEY SK, 1997, J ASIAN STUD, V56, P899 MALIK SJ, 1993, INCLUDING POOR, P487 MARCH JG, 1996, GOVERNANCE, V9, P247 MOSER CON, 1998, WORLD DEV, V26, P1 OKEEFE P, 1976, NATURE, V260, P566 PINGALI PL, 1997, FOOD POLICY, V22, P345 PLATTEAU JP, 1991, SOCIAL SECURITY DEV, P112 RAVALLION M, 1994, WORLD DEV, V22, P823 REARDON T, 1996, WORLD DEV, V24, P901 RIBOT JC, 1996, CLIMATE VARIABILITY, V1, P1 RIBOT JC, 1996, CLIMATE VARIABILITY, P13 SANDERSON S, 1994, CHANGES LAND USE LAN, P329 SANDLER T, 1997, GLOBAL CHALLENGES AP SCOTT JC, 1976, MORAL EC PEASANT REB SCOTT JC, 1985, WEAPONS WEAK EVERYDA SEN AK, 1981, POVERTY FAMINES ESSA, V1, P1 SEN AK, 1984, RESOURCES VALUES DEV STARK O, 1991, MIGRATION LABOUR THOMPSON M, 1997, GEOGR J 2, V163, P141 VARLEY A, 1994, DISASTERS DEV ENV WATSON RT, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, V1, P1 WATTS MJ, 1991, REV AFRICAN POLITICA, V51, P9 WATTS MJ, 1993, PROG HUM GEOG, V17, P43 WIGLEY TML, 1996, NATURE, V379, P240 WISNER BG, 1978, DISASTERS, V2, P80 NR 61 TC 17 J9 WORLD DEVELOP BP 249 EP 269 PY 1999 PD FEB VL 27 IS 2 GA 180TX UT ISI:000079402200002 ER PT J AU Schimel, D TI Climate change and crop yields: Beyond Cassandra SO SCIENCE LA English DT Editorial Material C1 Natl Ctr Atmospher Res, Climate & Global Dynam Div, Boulder, CO 80307 USA. RP Schimel, D, Natl Ctr Atmospher Res, Climate & Global Dynam Div, POB 3000, Boulder, CO 80307 USA. CR LONG SP, 2006, SCIENCE, V312, P1918 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 REILLY JM, 1999, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V43, P745 NR 3 TC 0 J9 SCIENCE BP 1889 EP 1890 PY 2006 PD JUN 30 VL 312 IS 5782 GA 061CF UT ISI:000238848100038 ER PT J AU Sanders, R Shaw, F MacKay, H Galy, H Foote, M TI National flood modelling for insurance purposes: using IFSAR for flood risk estimation in Europe SO HYDROLOGY AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES LA English DT Article C1 Willis Ltd, London EC3P 3AX, England. Intermap Technol Inc, Nepean, ON K2E 1A2, Canada. RP Sanders, R, Willis Ltd, 10 Trinity Sq, London EC3P 3AX, England. AB Flood risk poses a major problem for insurers and governments who ultimately pay the financial costs of losses resulting from flood events. Insurers therefore face the problem of how to assess their exposure to floods and how best to price the flood element of their insurance products. This paper looks at the insurance implications of recent flood events in Europe and the issues surrounding insurance of potential future events. In particular, the paper will focus on the flood risk information needs of insurers and how these can be met. The data requirements of national and regional flood models are addressed in the context of the accuracy of available data on property location. Terrain information is generally the weakest component of sophisticated flood models. Therefore, various sources of digital terrain models (DTM) are examined and discussed with consideration of the vertical and horizontal accuracy, the speed of acquisition, the costs and the comprehensiveness of the data. The NExTMap DTM series from Intermap Technologies Inc. is proposed as a suitable DTM for flood risk identification and mapping, following its use in the UK. Its acquisition, processing and application is described and future plans discussed. Examples are included of the application of flood information to insurance property information and the potential benefits and advantages of using suitable hazard modelling data sources are detailed, CR *ASS BRIT INS, 2002, ABI NEWS RELEAS 0926 *CEH, 1999, FLOOD EST HDB *DEFRA, 2001, FD2304 DEFRA *DEFRA, 2001, NAT APPR ASS RISK FL BATES PD, 2000, J HYDROL, V236, P54 BLACK AB, 1999, FLOOD DAMAGE UK NEW BOMMER J, 2002, J SEISMOL, V6, P431 BURGESS KA, 2000, ANN C RIV COAST ENG CRICHTON D, 2002, WATER INT, V27, P119 DAMON JJ, 2002, P 22 ESRI INT US C S DIXON MJ, 1994, 65 PROUDM OC LAB GALY H, 2002, T GIS, V61, P31 HULME M, 2002, CLIMATE CHANGE SCENA HUNTINGDON S, 2002, FLOOD RISK MANAGEMEN, P151 LI X, 2002, P 2002 FIG ASPRS ACS MACKAY H, 2001, RANGER J DEFENCE GEO, P21 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 MERCER B, 2001, P PHOT WEEK 2001 STU NEUKUM G, 2001, PHOTOGRAMMETRIC WEEK PETERKEN O, 2001, OIL PETROCHEMICALS E PETERKEN O, 2001, RISK TECHNOLOGY INSI, V2 RAPER JF, 1992, POSTCODES NEW GEOGRA RODDA JC, 1999, DEALING NATURAL DISA, P75 SANDERS R, 2000, PHOTOGRAMM ENG REM S, V66, P1185 SHAW F, 2001, RISK TECHNOLOGY INSI, V2 WATSON RT, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 NR 26 TC 0 J9 HYDROL EARTH SYST SCI BP 449 EP 456 PY 2005 VL 9 IS 4 GA 976UQ UT ISI:000232759300014 ER PT J AU Blackstock, KL Kelly, GJ Horsey, BL TI Developing and applying a framework to evaluate participatory research for sustainability SO ECOLOGICAL ECONOMICS LA English DT Article C1 Macaulay Inst, Socioecon Res Programme, Aberdeen AB15 8QH, Scotland. CSIRO Sustainable Ecosyst, Resource Futures Program, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia. RP Blackstock, KL, Macaulay Inst, Socioecon Res Programme, Aberdeen AB15 8QH, Scotland. AB The normative implications of participatory research imply ongoing social learning that ought to lead to personal and institutional transformation. Sustainability science also requires reflexive scientific practice in order to enable the co-generation of solutions that take account of uncertainty and multiple forms of knowledge. However, there is little published peer-reviewed material on how to assess to what degree the rhetoric regarding the benefits of participatory research are achieved in practice, particularly with regard to participatory research for sustainability. This paper outlines how linking the rationales for participatory research and for sustainability science to the principles of evaluation can deliver a conceptually coherent evaluation framework for assessment. The approach for evaluating participatory research in this context consists of framing the evaluation, i.e., setting boundaries on the subject within its social, political, environmental and institutional context and selecting appropriate criteria, methods and data sources. The application of the framework, using a summative evaluation of participatory research for sustainability in north-east Australia, illustrates its strengths and weaknesses, concluding with a consideration of its applicability to further participatory sustainability science. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. CR *EUR IND RES DEV C, 2003, RIRDC CORP PLAN 2003 *OECD, 2004, STAK INV TECHN SHORT *SLIM, 2004, 3 SLIM ABELSON J, 2003, SOC SCI MED, V57, P239 ALSTON JM, 1995, SCI SCARCITY PRINCIP ARNSTEIN A, 1969, J AM I PLANNERS, V26, P216 ASTHANA S, 2002, SOC POLICY ADMIN, V36, P780 BECKER J, 2004, SUSTAIN DEV, V12, P200 BEIERLE TC, 2001, ENVIRON PLANN C, V19, P515 BELLAMY JA, 2001, J ENVIRON MANAGE, V63, P407 BELLAMY JA, 2004, COAST ZON AS PAC 200 BELLAMY JA, 2005, CIRM SOC DIM NAT RES, P11 BIGGS S, 1989, OFCOR COMP STUDY PAP, V3 BLACK K, 2005, SOC WORK HEALTH CARE, V40, P39 BLACKSTOCK KL, 2005, UNPUB EVALUATING IMP BLOOMFIELD D, 2001, ENVIRON PLANN C, V19, P501 BOSSEL H, 1997, SUSTAINABILITY INDIC, P101 BOTCHEVA L, 2002, AM J EVAL, V23, P421 BRINKERHOFF JM, 2002, EVAL PROGRAM PLANN, V25, P215 CASH DW, 2003, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V100, P8086 CHELIMSKY E, 1997, EVALUATION 21 CENTUR COENEN FHJ, 1998, PARTICIPATION QUALIT, P1 DAVIES BD, 2004, MLU92703 SCOTT EX EN DAVIES G, 2004, HEALTH PLACE, V10, P349 DEMARCHI B, 2001, EVE POLICY RES BRIEF, V10 DENZIN N, 1989, RES ACT THEORETICAL DORE J, 1999, SUSTAINABLE RURAL DE DOVERS S, 2004, ENV SUSTAINABILITY P DRYZEK J, 2000, DELIBERATIVE DEMOCRA EKBOIR J, 2003, AGR SYST, V78, P166 FISCHER F, 2000, CITIZENS EXPERTS ENV GIBBON M, 2002, HEALTH SOC CARE COMM, V10, P485 GRANT A, 2004, RURAL SOCIOL, V14, P142 GREENWOOD DJ, 1993, HUM RELAT, V46, P175 GUNDERSON LH, 2002, PANARCHY UNDERSTANDI, V1, P1 HINTERBERGER F, 2003, AIRP SD FINAKL REPOR HOLLOWAY J, 2001, UNDERSTANDING EVALUA HORSEY B, 2005, EVALUATION DOUGLAS S HOVERMAN S, 2005, REGIONAL NATURAL RES, P35 JOHNSON N, 2004, NAT RESOUR FORUM, V28, P189 KASEMIR B, 2003, PUBLIC PARTICIPATION KATES RW, 2001, SCIENCE, V292, P641 KELLY GJ, IN PRESS SOC NATURAL KELLY GJ, UNPUB HOUSING STUDIE KELLY GJ, 2005, REFLECTIONS STREAM R KELLY GJ, 2005, UNPUB PARTICIPATION KEMMIS S, 2000, HDB QUALITITATIVE RE KENYON W, 2005, EUR SOC EC EC C LISB LAVERACK G, 2001, COMMUNITY DEV J, V36, P134 MAARLEVELD M, 1999, AGR HUM VALUES, V16, P267 MACNAGHTEN P, 1997, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V7, P5 MACNEIL C, 2002, AM J EVAL, V23, P45 MARTIN A, 1997, AGR SYST, V55, P195 MARTIN V, 2001, COMPLETING EVALUATIN MAYUMI K, 2006, ECOL ECON, V57, P382 MULLER A, 2003, ECOL ECON, V45, P19 OKALI C, 1994, FARMER PARTICIPATORY OMEARA PJ, 2004, RURAL SOCIOL, V14, P126 ONEILL J, 2001, ENVIRON PLANN C, V19, P483 ORIORDAN T, 2001, GLOBALISM LOCALISM I OSORIOPETERS S, 2003, AIRP SD WORK PACKAGE PAIN R, 2004, PROG HUM GEOG, V28, P652 PATTON MQ, 1987, USE QUALITATIVE METH PATTON MQ, 1997, EVAL PRACT, V18, P147 PATTON MQ, 1998, UTILIZATION FOCUSSED PELLIZZONI L, 2001, BRIT J SOCIOL, V52, P59 PELLIZZONI L, 2003, ENVIRON VALUE, V12, P195 PINI B, 2002, J RURAL STUD, V18, P339 PINI B, 2004, J RURAL STUD, V20, P169 REED M, 2005, INTEGRATING METHODS, V10 RICHARDS C, 2004, SERP POLICY BRIEF, V1 ROWE G, 2000, SCI TECHNOL HUM VAL, V25, P3 ROWE G, 2004, SCI TECHNOL HUM VAL, V29, P88 SCHULZ AJ, 2003, EVAL PROGRAM PLANN, V26, P249 SCOTT AJ, 1998, J ENVIRON MANAGE, V54, P291 SHERLOCK, 2002, SOCIOLOGICAL RES ONL, V7 SMITH G, 2001, ENVIRON POLIT, V10, P72 STEELMAN TA, 1997, POLICY SCI, V30, P71 STIRLING A, 2004, SCI CITIZENSHIP GLOB STRAGER MP, 2006, ECOL ECON, V58, P79 THURSTON WE, 2005, HEALTH POLICY, V73, P237 VANDENHOVE S, 2000, ECOL ECON, V33, P457 WALKER DH, 2004, REGIONAL PLANNING SU WALLERSTEIN N, 1999, SOC SCI MED, V49, P39 WANDERSMAN A, 1981, J APPLIED BEHAVIORAL, V17, P27 WEAVER VM, 2002, DEV CELL, V2, P6 WEBLER T, 1995, FAIRNESS COMPETENCE, P35 WEBLER T, 2001, ENVIRON MANAGE, V27, P435 WICKER AW, 1989, AM J COMMUN PSYCHOL, V17, P531 WILCOX D, 2000, GUIDE EFFECTIVE PART NR 90 TC 0 J9 ECOL ECON BP 726 EP 742 PY 2007 PD FEB 1 VL 60 IS 4 GA 141QZ UT ISI:000244595100006 ER PT J AU Lindsay, JR TI The determinants of disaster vulnerability: Achieving sustainable mitigation through population health SO NATURAL HAZARDS LA English DT Article C1 Manitoba Hlth, Disaster Management Branch, Winnipeg, MB R3H 0Z2, Canada. RP Lindsay, JR, Manitoba Hlth, Disaster Management Branch, Unit 7,1680 Ellice Ave, Winnipeg, MB R3H 0Z2, Canada. AB The growing appreciation of mitigation is highlighting the need to develop a better understanding of what makes some people more vulnerable to the impacts of a disaster. Health researchers have asked a similar question regarding the varying vulnerability to illness within a population. This has lead to the identification of a set of social, physical and economic factors that are now referred to as the determinants of health. These factors are the same as those commonly associated with disaster vulnerability. Recognizing that these same concepts are being applied in both the health and disaster management contexts presents an opportunity to also achieve a shared objective of reducing vulnerability within a population. CR *CAN I HLTH INF, 1999, NAT CONS C POP HLTH *HJ HEINZ 3 CTR SC, 2000, HIDD COSTS COAST HAZ *HLTH CAN, 1996, COMM UND CLAR COR CO *HLTH CAN, 1996, REP HLTH CAN *HLTH CAN, 1999, HLTH FUT 2 REP HLTH *HLTH CAN, 2001, WHAT DET HLTH *I HLTH PROM RES, 1999, POP HLTH CAN WORK PA *MAN HLTH, 1997, PLANN FRAM PROM PRES *WHO, 1984, WHO M COP 9 13 JUL 1 ANDERSON M, 1989, RISING ASHES DEV STR ANDERSON M, 2000, STORMS, V1 BANKEN R, 1999, CANADIAN J PUBLIC S1, V90, P27 BLAIKIE PM, 1994, RISK NATURAL HAZARDS, V1, P1 BOYCE JK, 2000, DISASTERS, V24, P254 BRITTON N, 1991, HAZARD ANAL RISK ASS BRITTON N, 1993, CATASTROPHE INSURANC, P31 DEAR M, 1992, J AM PLANN ASSOC, V58, P288 DEYLE RE, 1998, COOPERATING NATURE C, P119 EYLES J, 1999, CANADIAN J PUBLIC S1, V90, P31 FRANKISH C, 1996, HLTH IMPACT ASSESSME GODSCHALK DR, 1991, EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT, P131 HAYES M, 1998, H01 CAN POL RES NETW HERTZMAN C, 1994, WHY ARE SOME PEOPLE, P67 HULTAKER O, 1983, INT J MASS EMERGENCI, V1, P7 MARROW B, 1999, DISASTERS, V23, P1 MASKREY A, 1989, DISASTER MITIGATION MATICKATYNDALE E, 1999, CAN J PUBLIC HEALTH, V90, P19 MILETI D, 1999, DISASTERS DESIGN REA MILLER J, 1993, INFORM MANAGE, V25, P217 MITCHELL JK, 1990, NOTHING FEAR RISKS H, P131 NIGG J, 1996, 245 DIS RES CTR PERRY RW, 1991, INT J MASS EMERGENCI, V9, P47 PICKETT KE, 2001, J EPIDEMIOL COMMUN H, V55, P111 SUSMAN P, 1993, INTERPRETATIONS CALA, P263 TWIGG J, 1998, UNDERSTANDING VULNER WAITE L, 2000, DISASTERS, V24, P153 WINCHESTER P, 1992, POWER CHOICE VULNERA YOUNG TK, 1998, POPULATION HLTH CONC ZOLLNER H, 1998, POPULATION HLTH PUTT NR 39 TC 0 J9 NATURAL HAZARDS BP 291 EP 304 PY 2003 PD MAR VL 28 IS 2-3 GA 659DN UT ISI:000181762400006 ER PT J AU Islam, SMN Munasinghe, M Clarke, M TI Making long-term economic growth more sustainable: evaluating the costs and benefits SO ECOLOGICAL ECONOMICS LA English DT Article C1 Victoria Univ Technol, Ctr Strateg Econ Studies, Sustainable Econ Growth Program, Melbourne, Vic, Australia. Munasinghe Inst Dev, Colombo, Sri Lanka. RP Islam, SMN, Victoria Univ Technol, Ctr Strateg Econ Studies, Sustainable Econ Growth Program, City Campus,POB 14428, Melbourne, Vic, Australia. AB Currently, traditional development issues such as economic stagnation, poverty, hunger, and illness as well as newer challenges like environmental degradation and globalisation demand attention. Sustainable development, including its economic, environmental and social elements, is a key goal of decisionmakers. Optimal economic growth has also been a crucial goal of both development theorists and practitioners. This paper examines the conditions under which optimal growth might be sustainable, by assessing the costs and benefits of growth. Key environmental and social aspects are considered. The Ecol-Opt-Growth-1 model analyses economic-ecological interactions, including resource depletion, pollution, irreversibility, other environmental effects, and uncertainty. It addresses some important issues, including savings, investment, technical progress, substitutability of productive factors, intergenerational efficiency, equity, and policies to make economic growth more sustainable-a basic element of the sustainomics framework. The empirical results support growing concerns that costs of growth may outweigh its benefits, resulting in unsustainability. Basically, in a wide range of circumstances, long term economic growth is unsustainable due to increasing environmental damage. Nevertheless, the model has many options that can be explored by policy makers, to make the development path more sustainable, as advocated by sustainomics. One example suggests that government supported abatement programs are needed to move towards sustainable development, since the model runs without abatement were infeasible. The optimal rate of abatement increases over time. Abatement of pollution is necessary to improve ecosystem viability and increase sustainability. Further research is necessary to seek conditions under which alternative economic growth paths are likely to become sustainable. (C) 2003 Published by Elsevier B.V. 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Hydrol Res Lab, Natl Weather Serv, Silver Spring, MD 20910 USA. Penn State Univ, Dept Geog, University Pk, PA 16802 USA. Penn State Univ, Ctr Earth Syst Sci, University Pk, PA 16802 USA. Penn State Univ, Dept Agron, University Pk, PA 16802 USA. Penn State Univ, Dept Geog, University Pk, PA 16802 USA. Penn State Univ, Ctr Earth Syst Sci, University Pk, PA 16802 USA. RP Yarnal, B, Penn State Univ, Ctr Earth Syst Sci, 302 Walker Bldg, University Pk, PA 16802 USA. AB The meteorology, flood hydroclimatology, and socioeconomic impacts of the Flood of January 1996 in the Susquehanna River Basin are explored. The analysis explains how an unusual storm system brought high humidities, high temperatures, strong winds, and heavy rain to the basin. The rapid melt of the deep snowpack, combined with the heavy rainfall, produced the sudden release of large volumes of water. Because the ground surface was frozen or saturated, this water moved primarily as overland flow. Thus, the flood waters were not restricted to areas immediately adjacent to stream channels and, consequently, some of the largest impacts were on people, property, and infrastructure in areas not normally prone to flooding. Socioeconomic patterns of flooding over time and space are investigated to put this flood into context and to highlight its impacts. The analysis concludes that if such overland flooding is a more common feature of climate change, then the current vulnerability to this form of flooding and its economic implications must be considered carefully. CR 1936, CTR DAILY TIMES 0320, P1 1936, HUNTINGDON DAIL 0321, P2 1936, HUNTINGDON DAIL 0325, P1 1936, NY TIMES 0319, P1 1936, WILLIAMSPORT SU 0326, P3 1972, ALTOONA MIRROR 0628, P1 1972, CTR DAILY TIMES 0628, P1 1972, SUNBURY DAILY I 0625, P1 1972, SUNBURY DAILY I 0626, P1 1972, WILLIAMSPORT SU 0624, P4 1996, CTR DAILY TIMES 0120, P1 1996, CTR DAILY TIMES 0122, A10 1996, CTR DAILY TIMES 0123, P1 1996, HARRISBURG PATR 0122, P1 1996, HARRISBURG PATR 0123, P1 1996, SUNBURY DAILY I 0124, P1 *BUR CENS, 1994, COUNT CIT DAT BOOK 1 *COUNC EC ADV, 1996, EC REP PRES *PENNS DEP FOR WAT, 1936, FLOODS MARCH 1936 PE *US ARM CORPS ENG, 1994, 111021417 CORPS ENG *USGS, 1996, STAT FLOODS PENNS JA ANDERSON EA, 1973, HYDRO17 NWS NOAA ARON G, 1986, FIELD MANUAL PENNSYL BAILEY JF, 1975, 924 US GEOL SURV NAT BELL GD, 1995, B AM METEOROL SOC, V76, P681 BLAIKIE PM, 1994, RISK NATURAL HAZARDS, V1, P1 BORUFF CS, 1994, WATER INT, V19, P212 BURN DH, 1994, J HYDROL, V160, P53 CHANGNON SA, 1996, GREAT FLOOD 1993 CHOW VT, 1964, HDB APPL HYDROLOGY C CRANE RG, 1997, IN PRESS INT J CLIMA DETTINGER MD, 1995, J CLIMATE, V8, P606 DOW KM, 1995, HUMAN DIMENSIONS Q, V1, P3 FLIPPO HN, 1982, 8221 US GEOL SURV GORI PL, 1996, 15996 US GEOL SURV HEBERT PJ, 1992, NHC31 NWS NOAA HILLS T, 1982, GEOJOURNAL, V6, P151 HVIZDASH J, 1997, COMMUNICATION FEB KARL TR, 1996, B AM METEOROL SOC, V77, P279 KATTENBERG A, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, P285 KUNKEL KE, 1994, B AM METEOROL SOC, V75, P811 LICHTENWALNER NL, 1936, REPORT LOSS DAMAGE M LIVERMAN DM, 1994, ENV RISKS HAZARDS, P326 LOTT N, 1997, 9701 NAT CLIM DAT CT MEEHL GA, 1993, J CLIMATE, V6, P42 MITCHELL JK, 1989, GEOGRAPHY AM, P409 NICHOLLS N, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, P133 NOVAKY B, 1985, CLIMATE IMPACT ASSES, P187 SMITH K, 1992, ENV HAZARDS ASSESSIN STRANAHAN SQ, 1993, SUSQUEHANNA RIVER DR WATT WE, 1995, CANADIAN WATER RESOU, V20, P237 WATTS MJ, 1983, ANTIPODE, V15, P24 WATTS MJ, 1983, INTERPRETATIONS CALA, P231 WATTS MJ, 1993, GEOJOURNAL, V30, P117 WOODRUFF BA, 1988, DISASTERS, V14, P151 YARNAL B, 1994, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V4, P229 YARNAL B, 1997, INT J CLIMATOLOGY, V17, P1 YARNAL B, 1998, SEVERE CONVECTIVE EV NR 58 TC 5 J9 J AM WATER RESOUR ASSOC BP 1299 EP 1312 PY 1997 PD DEC VL 33 IS 6 GA YR465 UT ISI:000071498000013 ER PT J AU Carreno, ML Cardona, OD Barbat, AH TI Urban seismic risk evaluation: A holistic approach SO NATURAL HAZARDS LA English DT Article C1 Univ Politecn Cataluna, Barcelona 08034, Spain. Univ Nacl Colombia, Manizales, Colombia. RP Carreno, ML, Univ Politecn Cataluna, Campus N,C Gran Capitan SN,Mod C1, Barcelona 08034, Spain. AB Risk has been defined, for management purposes, as the potential economic, social and environmental consequences of hazardous events that may occur in a specified period of time. However, in the past, the concept of risk has been defined in a fragmentary way in many cases, according to each scientific discipline involved in its appraisal. From the perspective of this article, risk requires a multidisciplinary evaluation that takes into account not only the expected physical damage, the number and type of casualties or economic losses, but also the conditions related to social fragility and lack of resilience conditions, which favour the second order effects (indirect effects) when a hazard event strikes an urban centre. The proposed general method of urban risk evaluation is multi hazard and holistic, that is, an integrated and comprehensive approach to guide decision-making. The evaluation of the potential physical damage (hard approach) as the result of the convolution of hazard and physical vulnerability of buildings and infrastructure is the first step of this method. Subsequently, a set of social context conditions that aggravate the physical effects are also considered (soft approach). In the method here proposed, the holistic risk evaluation is based on urban risk indicators. According to this procedure, a physical risk index is obtained, for each unit of analysis, from existing loss scenarios, whereas the total risk index is obtained by factoring the former index by an impact factor or aggravating coefficient, based on variables associated with the socioeconomic conditions of each unit of analysis. Finally, the proposed method is applied in its single hazard form to the holistic seismic risk evaluation for the cities of Bogota (Colombia) and Barcelona (Spain). CR *FEMA, 1999, EARTH LOSS EST METH *ICC CIMNE, 2004, ADV APPRACH EARTHQ R *JRC EC, 2002, STAT OF THE ART REP *U LOS AND, 2005, SEISM RISK LOSSES SC *UNDRO, 1980, NAT DIS VULN AN BARBAT AH, 2003, IDB IDEA PROGRAM IN BLAIKIE P, 1996, VULNERABILITY SOC EN CANNON T, 1994, DISASTER DEV ENV CARDONA OD, 1996, CITIES RISK CARDONA OD, 2000, P 12 WORLD EARTHQ EN CARDONA OD, 2001, THESIS TU CATALONIA CARDONA OD, 2004, MAPPING VULNERABILIT CARRENO ML, 2005, SYSTEM INDICATORS RI CHAMBERS R, 1989, IDS B, V20, P1 COBURN A, 1992, EARTHQUAKE PROTECTIO DOUGLAS M, 1982, RISK CULTURE ESSAY S DYNES RR, 1994, INT J MASS EMERGENCI, V12, P25 KARLSSON J, 1998, THESIS LINKOPING SVE KASPERSON RE, 1988, RISK ANAL, V8, P177 KATES RW, 1971, ECON GEOGR, V47, P438 LAVELL A, 1996, CITIES RISK MANSILLA E, 1996, DISASTERS MODEL CONS MASKREY A, 1994, LIVING RISK VULNERAB MASURE P, 2003, IDB IDEA PROGRAMA IN PALMLUND I, 1989, CASE ESTROGENS INQUI QUARANTELLI EL, 1988, INT J MASS EMERGENCI, V5, P285 RAYNER S, 1992, SOCIAL THEORIES RISK SAATY RW, 1987, MATH MODELLING, V9, P161 SAATY TL, 1991, PREDICTION PROJECTIO SAATY TL, 2001, DECISION MAKING LEAD SUSMAN P, 1984, GLOBAL DISASTERS RAD WESGATE KN, 1976, 4 U BRADF WHITE GF, 1964, CHOICE ADJUSTMENT FL WHITMAN RV, 1973, STRUCTUES PUBLICATIO, V380 WIJKMAN A, 1984, NATURAL DIS ACT GOD WILCHESCHAUX G, 1989, DISASTER ECOLOGISM P WISNER B, 1993, GEOJOURNAL, V30, P127 ZAPATA R, 2004, COMMUNICATION NR 38 TC 0 J9 NATURAL HAZARDS BP 137 EP 172 PY 2007 PD JAN VL 40 IS 1 GA 125NR UT ISI:000243449300007 ER PT J AU Dilley, M Boudreau, TE TI Coming to terms with vulnerability: a critique of the food security definition SO FOOD POLICY LA English DT Article C1 Univ Wisconsin, Madison, WI 53706 USA. Food Econ Grp, Biglerville, PA 17307 USA. RP Dilley, M, Univ Wisconsin, 432 N Lake St, Madison, WI 53706 USA. AB This paper seeks to improve the practice of vulnerability assessment for food security pur poses by addressing long-standing issues that have hampered the development of both theory and methods. In food security contexts, vulnerability is usually defined in relation to an outcome, such as hunger, food insecurity or famine. This precludes employing the concept for the more specific task of evaluating the susceptibility of a population to explicitly-identified exogenous events or shocks that could lead to these outcomes. This lack of specificity has clouded interpretation of causal factors of food insecurity and famine. Alternatively, in a widely-applied framework for disaster risk assessment, the concept of vulnerability serves the more specific purpose of identifying characteristics of population groups or other elements that make them more or less susceptible to experiencing damage when exposed to particular hazards or shocks, Risks of negative outcomes are created by the combination of hazards and vulnerability, and vulnerability is defined by its relation to hazards rather than directly in relation to the outcomes themselves, The result has been an easier and more transparent translation of concepts into practice. That this latter formulation can also be applied in the food security context is illustrated through an analysis of food security risks in Tanzania. The analysis identifies economic alternatives households can exercise to meet their minimum annual food requirements. Exogenous threats or shocks that can suppress or eliminate particular alternatives exercised by different groups are identified as a means of assessing households' vulnerability and consequently their risks of becoming food insecure, or falling below the minimum threshold, (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *UNDP, 2000, REP STAT DROUGHT PRE, V1 *UNDRO, 1979, NAT DIS VULN AN *USAID OFDA, 1997, INTRO DIS MAN ANDERSON MB, 1991, DISASTERS, V15, P43 ANDERSON MB, 1995, DISASTER PREVENTION, P41 BLAIKIE PM, 1994, RISK NATURAL HAZARDS, V1, P1 BORTON J, 1991, MAPPING VULNERABILIT BOUDREAU T, 1998, 26 OV DEV I BUCHANANSMITH M, 1995, FAMINE EARLY WARNING BURTON I, 1978, ENV HAZARD, V1, P1 CHAMBERS R, 1989, IDS B, V20, P1 COBURN AW, 1991, DISASTER MITIGATION COBURN AW, 1991, VULNERABILITY RISK A DAVIES S, 1996, ADAPTABLE LIVELIHOOD DOWNING TE, 1991, 21 FEWS HEWITT K, 1983, INTERPRETATIONS CALA, P3 HUTCHINSON CF, 1992, EARLY WARNING VULNER JASPARS S, 1999, DISASTERS, V23, P359 KELLY M, 1992, DISASTERS, V16, P322 KOCHAR A, 1995, AM ECON REV, V85, P159 KREIMER A, 1999, MANAGING DISASTER RI LONGHURST R, 1994, IDS BULL-I DEV STUD, V25, P17 MASKREY A, 1989, DISASTER MITIGATION MAXWELL S, 1992, HOUSEHOLD FOOD SECUR MIDDLETON N, 1998, DISASTER DEV POLITIC RIBOT JC, 1996, CLIMATE VARIABILITY, V1, P1 SEN AK, 1981, POVERTY FAMINES ESSA, V1, P1 SEYOUM S, 1995, ANAL MAPPING FOOD IN SWIFT J, 1989, IDS B, V20, P8 TIMMERMAN P, 1981, ENV MONOGRAPH, V1, P1 VONBRAUN J, 1998, FAMINE AFRICA PRINCI WEBB P, 1994, VULNERABILITY MAPPIN WEBB, 1999, DISASTERS, V23, P292 WHITE GF, 1974, NATURAL HAZARDS LOCA YOUNG H, 1999, DISASTERS, V23, P277 NR 35 TC 1 J9 FOOD POLICY BP 229 EP 247 PY 2001 PD JUN VL 26 IS 3 GA 451WC UT ISI:000169824500002 ER PT J AU Magalhaes, AR TI Planning for sustainable development in the context of global change SO GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS LA English DT Editorial Material RP Magalhaes, AR, SQS 315-Bolco-A-Ap 104, BR-70384010 Brasilia, DF, Brazil. CR *WCED WORLD COMM E, 1987, OUR COMM FUT DALY H, 1993, VALUING EARTH EC ECO DOWNING TA, 1991, ASSESSING SOCIOECONO MAGALHAES AR, 1992, REGIONS GLOBAL WARMI MAGALHAES AR, 1994, PROJECT ARIDAS UMA E MAGALHAES AR, 1997, SUSTAINABLE DEV WORL NOBRE P, 1994, UNPUB CLIMA MUDANCAS OSTROM E, 1990, GOVERING COMMONS EVO OSTROM E, 1993, I INCENTIVES SUSTAIN, P1 PUTNAM RD, 1993, MAKING DEMOCRACY WOR RIBOT JC, 1996, CLIMATE VARIABILITY, V1, P1 SRAGELDIN I, 1995, WORLD BANK 3 ANN WOR NR 12 TC 2 J9 GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANGE BP 1 EP 10 PY 1998 PD APR VL 8 IS 1 GA 101FV UT ISI:000074859700001 ER PT J AU Olivo, MD TI Assessment of the vulnerability of Venezuela to sea-level rise SO CLIMATE RESEARCH LA English DT Article C1 Minist Ambiente & Recursos Nat Renovables, Direcc Gen Sectorial Planificac & Ordenac Ambient, Ctr Simon Bolivar, Caracas, Venezuela. RP Olivo, MD, Minist Ambiente & Recursos Nat Renovables, Direcc Gen Sectorial Planificac & Ordenac Ambient, Ctr Simon Bolivar, Torre Sur,Piso 9, Caracas, Venezuela. AB The goal of this study is to assess the vulnerability of 5 sectors of the coast of Venezuela to potential sea-level rise using the methodology proposed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Sea-level rise resulting from thermal expansion of the oceans and melting of glaciers is viewed as one of the main impacts of climate changes. A 0.5 m rise scenario for the year 2100 was used for this study. A modified version of the Brunn Rule was used to estimate land loss due to erosion. Land loss due to inundation was considered for the case of lowlands. According to the assessments performed, land loss due to erosion in the 5 coastal areas chosen for the study (20.07 km(2)) would be less than that due to inundation (52.63 km(2)). Oil infrastructure, urban areas, and tourist infrastructure, all of which are essential to the national economy, would be affected. The areas with more population at risk would be the Costa Oriental del Lago de Maracaibo (eastern coast of Maracaibo Lake) and Costa Oriental del Estado Falcon (eastern coast of Falcon State). The former has the highest capital value at risk, followed by Barcelona-Puerto La Cruz-Guanta. Assuming a 'No Protection' response and a 0.5 m sealevel rise, approximately 131.13 km(2) would be lost. If the 'important Areas Protection' option was implemented, only 86.16 km(2) (US$ 15000 million) would be lost. The vulnerability of these coastal areas could be reduced by more appropriate planning and management. CR *BCV, 1994, INF AN *COPLANARH, 1970, INV NAC TIERR REG 7 *CORPOTURISMO, 1995, REG INF TUR *FIV, 1993, PRIVATIZACION *IPCC, 1990, STRAT AD SEA LEV RIS *IPCC, 1992, IMP AD MIT CLIM CHAN *MAC, 1994, REG PROD PESQ AN *MTC, 1992, NOM CARR DIR VIAL *OCEI, 1991, TIEMP RES *OCEI, 1994, ANUARIO 4 ARISMENDI J, 1992, GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANG, P453 HANDS EB, 1983, HDB COASTAL PROCESSE, P167 MARTINEZ J, 1987, AEQUA, V3, P227 NICHOLLS RJ, 1994, J COASTAL RES, V14, P26 NICHOLLS RJ, 1994, IN PRESS GEOMORPHOLO VOLONTE C, 1995, J COASTAL RES, V14, P285 NR 16 TC 1 J9 CLIMATE RES BP 57 EP 65 PY 1997 PD DEC 29 VL 9 IS 1-2 GA ZD200 UT ISI:000072661400010 ER PT J AU Shackley, S Deanwood, R TI Constructing social futures for climate-change impacts and response studies: building qualitative and quantitative scenarios with the participation of stakeholders SO CLIMATE RESEARCH LA English DT Article C1 Univ Manchester, Inst Sci & Technol, Manchester Sch Management, Tyndall Ctr Climate Change Res, Manchester M60 1QD, Lancs, England. Univ Manchester, Dept Planning & Landscape, Manchester M13 9PL, Lancs, England. RP Shackley, S, Univ Manchester, Inst Sci & Technol, Manchester Sch Management, Tyndall Ctr Climate Change Res, Manchester M60 1QD, Lancs, England. AB This paper describes the development of socio-economic scenarios, in both qualitative and quantitative terms, for use in integrated assessment modelling of the impacts of climate change in 2 contrasting English regions: East Anglia and the North West. The need for socio-economic scenarios is discussed, and the 'mediating' role that they play between intellectual debate and policy deliberation is analysed. Four scenarios are constructed for each region: regional enterprise, global sustainability, regional stewardship and global markets, and we provide the rationale for the socioeconomic and policy changes we propose under each scenario. Spatial mapping of 2 of the scenarios in each region is then conducted for 3 illustrative issues (built development, biodiversity and coastal zone), and a sample of non-spatial agricultural variables is inferred. A major focus of the paper is an examination of the experience of engaging stakeholders in the development of the socio-economic scenarios. We explore, in particular, how stakeholders reconciled a given long-term scenario framework with their shorter-term and particular policy-driven requirements. CR *DTI, 1999, ENV FUT *EEDA, 1999, REG EC DEV STRAT *GOEE, 2000, DRAFT REG PLANN GUID *IAPA, 1998, IMP ASS PROJ APPR, V16, P79 *MAFF, 1999, FLOOD COAST DEF PROJ *NWDA, 1999, ENGL N W STRAT 2020 *NWDA, 1999, SPAT OPT N W *NWDA, 2000, PEOPL PLAC PROSP DRA *ONS, 2001, REG TRENDS *U MANCH FARM BUS, 1986, REV AGR N W ENGL *UK CLIM IMP PROGR, 2001, SOC EC SCEN CLIM CHA *VISIONS, 2001, ENV4CT970462 ICIS ASCHER W, 1981, POLICY SCI, V13, P247 BERKHOUT F, 2001, UK CLIMATE IMPACTS P, P15 BERKHOUT F, 2002, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V12, P83 BROWN L, 1994, FULL HOUSE REASSESSI COLLINGRIDGE D, 1992, MANAGEMENT SCALE DYSON T, 1996, FOOD POPULATION EZRAHI Y, 1990, DESCENT ICARUS SCI T HULME M, 1998, 1 CLIM RES UN JASANOFF S, 1990, 5 BRANCH KLEIN RJT, 1999, AMBIO, V28, P182 LEMPERT R, 2000, ROBUST STRATEGY ABAT LORENZONI I, 2000, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V10, P145 LORENZONI I, 2000, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V10, P57 MCCARTHY J, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 MCKENZIEHEDGER M, 2000, CLIMATE CHANGE ASSES MURPHY M, 1998, REPORT FARMING E COU NIX J, 1970, FARM MANAGEMENT POCK PARRY ML, 1998, 1 JACKS ENV I NORW PARRY ML, 1999, GLOBAL ENV S, V9, P1 PIORE ML, 1984, 2 IND DIVIDE POSSIBI PUTNAM H, 1996, MAKING DEMOCRACY WOR RAYNER S, 1998, HUMAN CHOICE CLIMATE RINGLAND G, 1998, SCENARIO PLANNING MA ROUNSEVELL MDA, 1999, ENV4CT950114 U CRANF SAXENIAN A, 1996, REGIONAL ADV CULTURE SCHON D, 1982, SCI CONTEXT, P290 SHACKLEY S, 1998, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V38, P155 SHACKLEY S, 2001, CHANGING DEGREES POT SHACKLEY S, 2001, UK CLIMATE IMPACTS P, P103 SHACKLEY S, 2002, J ENV PLANNING MANAG, V45, P381 STAR SL, 1989, SOC STUD SCI, V19, P387 STRZEPEK K, 2001, INTEGRATED ASSESS, V2, P139 THOMPSON M, 1990, CULTURAL THEORY VANDERHEIJDEN K, 1996, SCENARIOS ART STRATE WAGGONER P, 1997, TECHNOLOGICAL TRAJEC, P56 WAGGONER P, 2000, EXPENSIVE MUST FOOD YOHE GW, 1999, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V9, P233 YOHE GW, 2002, EC ANAL ADAPTIVE CAP NR 50 TC 1 J9 CLIMATE RES BP 71 EP 90 PY 2003 PD JUN 10 VL 24 IS 1 GA 741FQ UT ISI:000186448400008 ER PT J AU Pandey, DN TI Cultural resources for conservation science SO CONSERVATION BIOLOGY LA English DT Editorial Material C1 Indian Inst Forest Management, Indian Forest Serv, Bhopal 462003, Madhya Pradesh, India. RP Pandey, DN, Indian Inst Forest Management, Indian Forest Serv, Bhopal 462003, Madhya Pradesh, India. CR 1999, NATURE, V401, P623 AGRAWAL DP, 1997, CURR SCI INDIA, V73, P731 ARUNACHALAM V, 2001, CURR SCI INDIA, V80, P1272 ATRAN S, 1999, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V96, P7598 BERKES F, 1999, SACRED ECOLOGY TRADI BERKES F, 2000, ECOL APPL, V10, P1251 CALLICOTT JB, 2001, DAEDALUS, V130, P77 CLARK WC, 2001, ECOL LAW QUART, V27, P1021 COX PA, 2000, SCIENCE, V287, P44 EHRLICH PR, 2000, HUMAN NATURES GENES FERSON S, 2000, ECOLOGY, V81, P2054 GADGIL M, 1993, AMBIO, V22, P266 GETZ WM, 1999, SCIENCE, V283, P1855 GOMEZPOMPA A, 1999, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V96, P5982 INFIELD M, 2001, CONSERV BIOL, V15, P800 JUNGERIUS P, 1998, GEOJOURNAL, V44, P51 KATES RW, 2001, SCIENCE, V292, P641 KIRCHNER JW, 2002, NATURE, V415, P65 KLEIJN D, 2001, NATURE, V413, P723 NEPSTAD D, 2002, SCIENCE, V295, P629 NITECKI MH, 1993, EVOLUTIONARY ETHICS PANDEY DN, 1993, INDIAN FOREST, V119, P521 PANDEY DN, 1996, VANISHING WOODS PART PANDEY DN, 2001, SCIENCE, V293, P1763 PANDEY DN, 2001, THESIS FOREST RES I POSEY DA, 1999, CULTURAL SPIRITUAL V ROBERTSON DP, 2001, CONSERV BIOL, V15, P970 RYKIEL EJ, 2001, BIOSCIENCE, V51, P433 SMITH EA, 2000, ANNU REV ANTHROPOL, V29, P493 TILMAN D, 2000, NATURE, V405, P208 UDGAONKAR S, 2002, CURR SCI INDIA, V82, P413 WILHERE GF, 2002, CONSERV BIOL, V16, P20 WILSON EO, 1998, CONSILIENCE UNITY KN NR 33 TC 2 J9 CONSERV BIOL BP 633 EP 635 PY 2003 PD APR VL 17 IS 2 GA 658TK UT ISI:000181736400035 ER PT J AU Salinger, MJ Sivakumar, MVK Motha, R TI Reducing vulnerability of agriculture and forestry to climate variability and change: Workshop summary and recommendations SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 Natl Inst Water & Atmospher Res, Auckland, New Zealand. World Meterol Org, CH-1211 Geneva, Switzerland. USDA, Washington, DC 20250 USA. RP Salinger, MJ, Natl Inst Water & Atmospher Res, POB 109-695, Auckland, New Zealand. AB The International Workshop on Reducing Vulnerability of Agriculture and Forestry to Climate Variability and Climate Change held in Ljubljana, Solvenia, from 7 to 9 October 2002 addressed a range of important issues relating to climate variability, climate change, agriculture, and forestry including the state of agriculture and forestry and agrometeological information, and potential adaptation strategies for agriculture and forestry to changing climate conditions and other pressures. There is evidence that global warming over the last millennium has already resulted in increased global average annual temperature and changes in rainfall, with the 1990s being likely the warmest decade in the Northern Hemisphere at least. During the past century, changes in temperature patterns have, for example, had a direct impact on the number of frost days and the length of growing seasons with significant implications for agriculture and forestry. Land cover changes, changes in global ocean circulation and sea surface temperature patterns, and changes in the composition of the global atmosphere are leading to changes in rainfall. These changes may be more pronounced in the tropics. For example, crop varieties grown in the Sahel may not be able to withstand the projected warming trends and will certainly be at risk due to projected lower amounts of rainfall as well. Seasonal to interannual climate forecasts will definitely improve in the future with a better understanding of dynamic relationships. However, the main issue at present is how to make better use of the existing information and dispersion of knowledge to the farm level. Direct participation by the farming communities in pilot projects on agrometeorological services will be essential to determine the actual value of forecasts and to better identify the specific user needs. Old (visits, extension radio) and new (internet) communication techniques, when adapted to local applications, may assist in the dissemination of useful information to the farmers and decision makers. Some farming systems with an inherent resilience may adapt more readily to climate pressures, making long-term adjustments to varying and changing conditions. Other systems will need interventions for adaptation that should be more strongly supported by agrometeorological services for agricultural producers. This applies, among others, to systems where pests and diseases play an important role. Scientists have to guide policy makers in fostering an environment in which adaptation strategies can be effected. There is a clear need for integrating preparedness for climate variability and climate change. In developed countries, a trend of higher yields, but with greater annual fluctuations and changes in cropping patterns and crop calendars can be expected with changing climate scenarios. Shifts in projected cropping patterns can be disruptive to rural societies in general. However, developed countries have the technology to adapt more readily to the projected climate changes. In many developing countries, the present conditions of agriculture and forestry are already marginal, due to degradation of natural resources, the use of inappropriate technologies and other stresses. For these reasons, the ability to adapt will be more difficult in the tropics and subtropics and in countries in transition. Food security will remain a problem in many developing countries. Nevertheless, there are many examples of traditional knowledge, indigenous technologies and local innovations that can be used effectively as a foundation for improved frming systems. Before developing adaptation strategies, it is essential to learn from the actual difficulties faced by farmers to cope with risk management at the farm level. Agrometeorologists must play an important role in assisting farmers with the development of feasible strategies to adapt to climate variability and climate change. Agrometeorologists should also advise national policy makers on the urgent need to cope with the vulnerabilities of agriculture and forestry to climate variability and climate change. The workshop recommendations were largely limited to adaptation. Adaptation to the adverse effects of climate variability and climate change is of high priority for nearly all countries, but developing countries are particularly vulnerable. Effective measures to cope with vulnerability and adaptation need to be developed at all levels. Capacity building must be integrated into adaptation measures for sustainable agricultural development strategies. Consequently, nations must develop strategies that effectively focus on specific regional issues to promote sustainable development. 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Univ Oregon, Dept Geog, Eugene, OR 97403 USA. RP James, LA, Univ S Carolina, Dept Geog, Columbia, SC 29208 USA. AB Historical and modern scientific contexts are provided for the 2006 Binghamton Geomorphology Symposium on the Human Role in Changing Fluvial Systems. The 2006 symposium provides a synthesis of research concerned with human impacts on fluvial systems - including hydrologic and geomorphic changes to watersheds - while also commemorating the 50th anniversary of the 1955 Man's Role in Changing the Face of the Earth Symposium [Thomas, Jr., W. L. (Ed.), 1956a. Man's Role in Changing the Face of the Earth. Univ. Chicago Press, Chicago. 1193 pp]. This paper examines the 1955 symposium from the perspective of human impacts on rivers, reviews current inquiry on anthropogenic interactions in fluvial systems, and anticipates future directions in this field. Although the 1955 symposium did not have an explicit geomorphic focus, it set the stage for many subsequent anthropogeomorphic studies. The 1955 conference provided guidance to geomorphologists by recommending and practicing interdisciplinary scholarship, through the use of diverse methodologies applied at extensive temporal and geographical scales, and through its insistence on an integrated understanding of human interactions with nature. Since 1956, research on human impacts to fluvial systems has been influenced by fundamental changes in why the research is done, what is studied, how river studies are conducted, and who does the research. Rationales for river research are now driven to a greater degree by institutional needs, environmental regulations, and aquatic restoration. New techniques include a host of dating, spatial imaging, and ground measurement methods that can be coupled with analytical functions and digital models. These new methods have led to a greater understanding of channel change, variations across multiple temporal and spatial scales, and integrated watershed perspectives; all changes that are reflected by the papers in this volume. These new methods also bring a set of technical demands for the training of geomorphologists. The 2006 Binghamton Geomorphology Symposium complements the 1956 symposium by providing a more specific and updated view of river systems coupled with human interactions. The symposium focuses on linkages between human land use, structures, and channel modification with geomorphology, hydrology, and ecology. The emergence of sustainability as a central policy guideline in environmental management should generate greater interest in geomorphic perspectives, especially as they pertain to human activities. The lack of theories of anthropogeomorphic change, however, presents a challenge for the next generation of geomorphologists in this rapidly growing subfield. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 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ANN GEOGR, V10, P97 WILSON JP, 2000, TERRAIN ANAL PRINCIP WILSON JP, 2000, TERRAIN ANAL PRINCIP, P1 WILSON RM, 2005, ENVIRON HIST, V10, P564 WITTFOGEL KA, 1956, MANS ROLE CHANGING F, P152 WOHL E, 2006, HUMAN ROLE CHANGING, V79, P217 WOLMAN A, 1956, MANS ROLE CHANGING F, P807 NR 128 TC 0 J9 GEOMORPHOLOGY BP 152 EP 171 PY 2006 PD SEP 30 VL 79 IS 3-4 GA 092GH UT ISI:000241084500002 ER PT J AU Haque, MS TI Environmental security in east Asia: A critical view SO JOURNAL OF STRATEGIC STUDIES LA English DT Article C1 Natl Univ Singapore, Dept Polit Sci, Singapore 0511, Singapore. RP Haque, MS, Natl Univ Singapore, Dept Polit Sci, Singapore 0511, Singapore. 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Clark Univ, George Perkins Marsh Inst, Worcester, MA 01602 USA. Stockholm Environm Inst, S-13014 Stockholm, Sweden. Stanford Univ, Ctr Environm Sci & Policy, Inst Int Studies, Stanford, CA 94305 USA. Harvard Univ, Dept Organism & Evolutionary Biol, Cambridge, MA 02138 USA. Harvard Univ, John F Kennedy Sch Govt, Cambridge, MA 02138 USA. Harvard Univ, Dept Earth & Planetary Sci, Cambridge, MA 02138 USA. RP Turner, BL, Clark Univ, Grad Sch Geog, Worcester, MA 01602 USA. AB Global environmental change and sustainability science increasingly recognize the need to address the consequences of changes taking place in the structure and function of the biosphere. These changes raise questions such as: Who and what are vulnerable to the multiple environmental changes underway, and where? Research demonstrates that vulnerability is registered not by exposure to hazards (perturbations and stresses) alone but also resides in the sensitivity and resilience of the system experiencing such hazards. This recognition requires revisions and enlargements in the basic design of vulnerability assessments, including the capacity to treat coupled human-environment systems and those linkages within and without the systems that affect their vulnerability. A vulnerability framework for the assessment of coupled human-environment systems is presented. 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RP Babiker, IS, Nagoya Univ, Hydrospher Atmospher Res Ctr, Chikusa Ku, Furo Cho, Nagoya, Aichi 4648601, Japan. AB Vulnerability assessment to delineate areas that are more susceptible to contamination from anthropogenic sources has become an important element for sensible resource management and land use planning. This contribution aims at estimating aquifer vulnerability by applying the DRASTIC model as well as utilizing sensitivity analyses to evaluate the relative importance of the model parameters for aquifer vulnerability in Kakamigahara Heights, Gifu Prefecture central Japan. An additional objective is to demonstrate the combined use of the DRASTIC and geographical information system (GIS) as an effective method for groundwater pollution risk assessment. The DRASTIC model uses seven environmental parameters (Depth to water, net Recharge, Aquifer media, Soil media, Topography, Impact of vadose zone, and hydraulic Conductivity) to characterize the hydrogeological setting and evaluate aquifer vulnerability. The western part of the Kakamigahara aquifer was dominated by "High" vulnerability classes while the eastern part was characterized by "Moderate" vulnerability classes. The elevated north-eastern part of the study area displayed "Low" aquifier vulnerability. The integrated vulnerability map shows the high risk imposed on the eastern part of the Kakamigahara aquifer due to the high pollution potential of intensive vegetable cultivation. The more vulnerable western part of the aquifer is, however, under a lower contamination risk. In Kakamigahara Heights, land use seems to be a better predictor of groundwater contamination by nitrate. Net recharge parameter inflicted the largest impact on the intrinsic vulnerability of the aquifer followed by soil media, topography, vadose zone media, and hydraulic conductivity. Sensitivity analyses indicated that the removal of net recharge, soil media and topography causes large variation in vulnerability index. Moreover, net recharge and hydraulic conductivity were found to be more effective in assessing aquifer vulnerability than assumed by the DRASTIC model. The GIS technique has provided efficient environment for analyses and high capabilities of handling large spatial data. (c) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 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RP Sutherst, RW, CSIRO Entomol, Long Pocket Labs, 120 Meiers Rd, Indooroopilly, Qld 4068, Australia. AB Global change includes climate change and climate variability, land use, water storage and irrigation, human population growth and urbanization, trade and travel, and chemical pollution. Impacts on vector-borne diseases, including malaria, dengue fever, infections by other arboviruses, schistosomiasis, trypanosomiasis, onchocerciasis, and leishmaniasis are reviewed. While climate change is global in nature and poses unknown future risks to humans and natural ecosystems, other local changes are occurring more rapidly on a global scale and are having significant effects on vector-borne diseases. History is invaluable as a pointer to future risks, but direct extrapolation is no longer possible because the climate is changing. Researchers are therefore embracing computer simulation models and global change scenarios to explore the risks. Credible ranking of the extent to which different vector-borne diseases will be affected awaits a rigorous analysis. Adaptation to the changes is threatened by the ongoing loss of drugs and pesticides due to the selection of resistant strains of pathogens and vectors. The vulnerability of communities to the changes in impacts depends on their adaptive capacity, which requires both appropriate technology and responsive public health systems. The availability of resources in turn depends on social stability, economic wealth, and priority allocation of resources to public health. 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Ctr Marine & Atmospher Sci, Hamburg, Germany. RP Rehdanz, K, Univ Hamburg, Res Unit Sustainabil & Global Change, Hamburg, Germany. AB This study investigates the amenity value of climate to British households. By using the hedonic price approach, the marginal willingness to pay for small changes in climate variables is derived. Various indices of temperature and precipitation are used including means, ranges, extremes and January and July averages. We specify one hedonic regression including information on house prices and wage data for 755 Posttowns and found the model containing January and July averages of temperature and precipitation most appropriate. The estimates suggest that British people would typically prefer higher temperatures in January. Increased precipitation in January is likely to reduce welfare. Changes in temperature and precipitation in July are not significant. Limited global warming, with a more pronounced effect of temperature increases compared to higher precipitation levels during winter months, might thus benefit British households. 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Univ British Columbia, Fac Forestry, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z2, Canada. RP Fraser, EDG, Univ Leeds, Sch Environm, Leeds Inst Environm Sci & Management, Leeds LS2 9JT, W Yorkshire, England. AB Modem society depends on complex agro-ecological and trading systems to provide food for urban residents, yet there are few tools available to assess whether these systems are vulnerable to future disturbances. We propose a preliminary framework to assess the vulnerability of food systems to future shocks based on landscape ecology's 'Panarchy Framework'. According to Panarchy, ecosystem vulnerability is determined by three generic characteristics: (1) the wealth available in the system, (2) how connected the system is, and (3) how much diversity exists in the system. In this framework, wealthy, non-diverse, tightly connected systems are highly vulnerable. The wealth of food systems can be measured using the approach pioneered by development economists to assess how poverty affects food security. Diversity can be measured using the tools investors use to measure the diversity of investment portfolios to assess financial risk. The connectivity of a system can be evaluated with the tools chemists use to assess the pathways chemicals use to flow through the environment. This approach can lead to better tools for creating policy designed to reduce vulnerability, and can help urban or regional planners identify where food systems are vulnerable to shocks and disturbances that may occur in the future. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 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RP Laska, S, Univ New Orleans, New Orleans, LA 70148 USA. AB Social science research on natural disasters documents how a natural hazard such as a hurricane becomes a disaster through social processes and social structures that place human populations in general and certain segments in particular, at risk. After a description of Hurricane Katrina and its impact, we describe how patterns of land development, and the economic and political history of New Orleans set the stage for this disaster. An overview of past research findings on the relationship between citizen vulnerability and poverty, minority status, age and disability, gender and tenancy is followed by evidence of the extent to which each risk factor was present in the pre-Katrina New Orleans population. The authors then cite evidence of how social vulnerability influenced outcomes at various stages of the Hurricane Katrina catastrophe, including mitigation, preparation, evacuation, storm impacts, and recovery. The concluding section discusses how the goal of disaster resilient communities cannot be reached until basic issues of inequality and social justice are addressed. 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RP Harrington, LMB, Kansas State Univ, Dept Geog, Manhattan, KS 66506 USA. AB As part of an initiative to improve understanding of place-to-place differences in greenhouse gas emissions, local changes in radiative forcing, and mitigative potential, the attitudes of decision-makers in the major greenhouse-gas-emitting industries in a 6-county study area in southwestern Kansas were investigated. This study included both mailed questionnaire and unstructured interview techniques, with quantitative and qualitative components. The information obtained from one method tended to corroborate data obtained from the other. Results indicate that, in this area. many respondents in the best positions to take mitigative actions are unconvinced of human-induced climate change. There are some variations among industries, with those involved in natural gas or electricity provision least convinced of potential negative impacts related to greenhouse gas emissions/climate change. In this region, it would appear that better communication of 'proof' of human climate impacts, as well as mitigative opportunities, would be a necessary part of encouraging industries to take action. 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RP Falkenmark, M, Stockholm Int Water Inst, Sveavagen 59, SE-11359 Stockholm, Sweden. AB The world is moving towards a dangerous situation of societal instability due to our failing ability to manage the life support, system on the human-dominated planet. Contributing to this problem are inherited and biased ways of thinking, originating from the 17th century and based on fragmentation and sectorization. A fundamental shift in thinking is therefore needed urgently, to better bridge, the partial realities addressed tip until now. Awareness has to be built up around the need for societal adaptation to hydroclimatic constraints, and strong enough institutions must be developed, capable of supporting unpopular decisions. A proper conceptualization is badly needed of the life support system in a science of 'environmentology', in which water is acknowledged as the bloodstream of the biosphere. Both land/water linkages and water/ecosystem linkages will have to be properly entered into an integrated and catchment-based land/water/ecosystem approach. The goal has to meet both societal needs and environmental sustainabhity conditions. Attention will have to be paid to all water, both liquid blue water, supporting humanity and aquatic ecosystems, and vapour-form green water, supporting terrestrial ecosystems, agriculture and forestry. The economic resource will have to be seen as the precipitation over the basin. Both water-dependent and water-impacting activities and ecosystems in the basin have to be analysed. Joint attention will have to be paid to environmental security, water security and food security. Methods for compromise building between incompatible water-related interests and ecosystems will have to be developed. Societal acceptance will depend on awareness campaigns-make water everybody's business-and has to be secured by participation. A new ethics of hydrosolidarity will have to be developed between those living upstream and those living downstream in a river basin. CR *GLOB WAT PARTN, 2000, BEIJ OCC PAP SER CONWAY GR, 1997, DOUBLY GREEN REVOLUT FALKENMARK M, 1993, P STOCKH WAT S STOCK FALKENMARK M, 1997, HYDROLOG SCI J, V42, P451 FALKENMARK M, 1998, AMBIO, V27, P148 FALKENMARK M, 1998, WATER POLICY, V1, P421 FALKENMARK M, 1999, WATER REFLECTIVE LAN FALKENMARK M, 2000, NO FRESHWATER SECURI FALKENMARK M, 2000, SUSTAINABLE CONSUMPT JANSSON A, 1999, ECOSYSTEMS, V2, P351 LUNDQVIST J, 1998, AMBIO, V27, P428 LUNDQVIST J, 2000, AGLMISC252000 FAO UN LUNDQVIST J, 2000, WATER INT, V25, P168 ROCKSTROM J, 1999, CONSERVATION ECOLOGY, V3 ROCKSTROM J, 2000, CRIT REV PLANT SCI, V19, P319 ROCKSTROM J, 2000, WATER SCI TECHNOLOGY, V43 SANDSTROM K, 1995, LIKOPING STUDIES ART, V120 SERAGELDIN I, 2000, WATER INT, V25, P284 TOULMIN C, 1994, UNPUB INT PANEL EXPE NR 19 TC 0 J9 INT J WATER RESOUR DEV BP 539 EP 554 PY 2001 PD DEC VL 17 IS 4 GA 529GC UT ISI:000174290800009 ER PT J AU Cutter, SL TI The vulnerability of science and the science of vulnerability SO ANNALS OF THE ASSOCIATION OF AMERICAN GEOGRAPHERS LA English DT Editorial Material C1 Univ S Carolina, Dept Geog, Columbia, SC 29208 USA. Univ S Carolina, Hazards Res Lab, Columbia, SC 29208 USA. RP Cutter, SL, Univ S Carolina, Dept Geog, Columbia, SC 29208 USA. AB The events of September 11th shocked the nation and painfully illustrated our vulnerability to international terrorist attacks. Despite some of the most sophisticated models, monitoring systems, and science in the world, officials were unable to anticipate and predict these cascading events. The collective scientific ability to geographically represent environmental threats, map exposures, and map consequences is relatively straightforward when the threats are recognized. But what happens when we cannot recognize threats or some of their unintended consequences? This article examines the twin issues of the inadequacies in our current modes of understanding (the vulnerability of science) and the need for more integrative approaches in understanding and responding to environmental hazards (vulnerability science). CR *CDC, 2002, BACKGR ANT RES *FEMA, 1997, MULT ID RISK ASS *HEINZ CTR, 2000, HIDD COSTS COAST HAZ *HEINZ CTR, 2002, HUM LINKS COAST DIS *NAT RES COUNC, 1989, IMPR RISK COMM *NAT RES COUNC, 1996, UND RISK INF DEC DEM *NAT RES COUNC, 1999, MAK CLIM FOR MATT *NAT RES COUNC, 1999, OUR COMM JOURN TRANS *NAT RES COUNC, 2000, EC IND NAT *NAT RES COUNC, 2001, GRAND CHALL ENV SCI *NAT RES COUNC, 2002, MAK NAT SAF ROL SCI *UNDP, 2000, HUM DEV REP 2000 *WORLD BANK, 2001, WORLD DEV IND ENV IN *WORLD EC FOR, 2000, PIL ENV SUST IND ALIBEK K, 1999, BIOHAZARD BAKER EJ, 1991, INT J MASS EMERGENCI, V9, P287 BARROWS HH, 1923, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V13, P1 BECK U, 1999, WORLD RISK SOC BERRY BJL, 1977, SOCIAL BURDENS ENV P BERRY BJL, 1980, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V70, P449 BLAIKIE PM, 1994, RISK NATURAL HAZARDS, V1, P1 BURTON I, 1978, ENV HAZARD, V1, P1 CAHAN B, 2002, GIS GROUND ZERO SPAT CARDONA C, 1999, NATURAL DISASTER MAN, P262 CARIS SL, 1978, 188 U CHIC CARSON R, 1962, SILENT SPRING CLARK WC, 2000, ASSESSING VULNERABIL CLEMENT P, 2001, MUTANT COLBORN T, 1996, OUR STOLEN FUTURE COVA TJ, 1997, INT J GEOGR INF SCI, V11, P763 CUTTER SL, IN PRESS SOCIAL SCI CUTTER SL, 1991, INT J MASS EMERGENCI, V9, P267 CUTTER SL, 1993, LIVING RISK GEOGRAPH CUTTER SL, 1996, PROG HUM GEOG, V20, P529 CUTTER SL, 2000, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V90, P713 CUTTER SL, 2001, AM HAZARDSCAPES REGI CUTTER SL, 2001, NEWSLETTER INT HUMAN, V2, P8 CUTTER SL, 2002, GEOGRAPHICAL DIMENSI DIETZ T, 1987, RISK PROFESSIONALS DOUGLAS M, 1982, RISK CULTURE ESSAY S DOW KM, 1998, COASTAL MANAGEMENT, V26, P238 DOW KM, 2000, ENV HAZARDS, V2, P143 DOW KM, 2002, NATURAL HAZARDS REV, V3, P12 DOWNING TE, 1991, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V1, P365 ERIKSON K, 1994, NEW SPECIES TROUBLE ETKIN D, 1999, ENV HAZARDS, V1, P69 FREUDENBURG WR, 1988, SCIENCE, V242, P44 GOLLEDGE RG, 1997, SPATIAL BEHAV GEOGRA GOLLEDGE RG, 2002, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V92, P1 GOULD SJ, 2000, SCIENCE, V287, P253 GUILLEMIN J, 1999, ANTHRAX INVESTIGATIO HARAWAY D, 1988, FEMINIST STUD, V14, P575 HARDING S, 1991, WHOSE SCI WHOSE KNOW HARVEY D, 1996, JUSTICE NATURE GEOGR HILL AA, 2001, AM HAZARDSCAPES REGI, P13 HODGSON ME, 2001, AM HAZARDSCAPES REGI, P37 JACOB G, 1990, SITE UNSEEN POLITICS JAEGER CC, 2001, RISK UNCERTAINTY RAT JERNIGAN JA, 2001, CDC EMERGING INFECT, V7 KASPERSON JX, 1995, REGIONS RISK, V1, P1 KASPERSON JX, 2001, GLOBAL ENV RISK KASPERSON RE, 1988, RISK ANAL, V8, P177 KASPERSON RE, 1996, ANN AM ACAD POLIT SS, V545, P95 KATES RW, 1985, ISSUES SCI TECHNOL, V2, P46 KATES RW, 1987, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V77, P525 KATES RW, 2001, SCIENCE, V292, P641 KOLPIN DW, 2002, ENVIRON SCI TECHNOL, V36, P1202 KRIMSKY S, 2000, HORMONAL CHAOS SCI S LANDRIGAN PJ, 2002, ENVIRON HEALTH PERSP, V110, P721 MESELSON M, 1994, SCIENCE, V266, P1202 MILETI D, 1999, DISASTERS DESIGN REA MILLER J, 2001, GERMS BIOL WEAPONS A MITCHELL JK, 1999, CRUCIBLES HAZARD MEG MONMONIER M, 1997, CARTOGRAPHIES DANGER MONTZ B, GEOGRAPHY AM DAWN 21 OBERG JE, 1988, UNCOVERING SOVIET DI PALM R, 1992, CALIFORNIA EARTHQUAK PALM R, 1994, EARTHQUAKE INSURANCE PERROW C, 1999, NORMAL ACCIDENTS LIV PLATT RH, 1999, DISASTERS DEMOCRACY PULIDO L, 2000, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V90, P12 RADKE J, 2000, URISA J, V12, P15 REVKIN AC, 2002, NY TIMES 0314, A20 ROSSER SV, 2000, WOMEN SCI SOC CRUCIA SCHETTLER T, 1999, GENERATIONS RISK REP SCHIEBINGER L, 1999, FEMINISM CHANGED SCI SCHNEIDER SH, 1998, J RISK RES, V1, P165 SHERBANIUK R, 2001, 5 HORSEMAN SHRADERFRECHETT.KS, 1991, RISK RATIONALITY PHI SHRADERFRECHETT.KS, 1993, BURYING UNCERTAINTY SIMS JH, 1972, SCIENCE, V176, P1386 SLOVIC P, 1987, SCIENCE, V236, P280 SLOVIC P, 2001, PERCEPTION RISK SLOVIC P, 2002, HEURISTICS BIASES PS, P397 SMELSER NJ, 1998, AM SOCIOL REV, V63, P1 SMITH KR, 2001, ENVIRONMENT, V43, P34 SNOW CP, 1993, 2 CULTURES STARR C, 1969, SCIENCE, V165, P1232 TENNER E, 1996, WHY BITE BACK TECHNO THOMAS DSK, 2001, AM HAZARDSCAPES REGI, P61 THOMAS DSK, 2002, 153 U COL NAT HAZ RE THOMAS WL, 1956, MANS ROLE CHANGING F THOMAS WL, 1975, PAC VIEWPOINT, V16, P1 THORNTON J, 2000, PANDORAS POISON CHLO TURNER BL, 1990, EARTH TRANSFORMED HU TURNER BL, 2002, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V92, P52 WARGO J, 1996, OUR CHILDRENS TOXIC WHITE GF, 1962, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V52, P279 WHITE GF, 1974, NATURAL HAZARDS LOCA NR 109 TC 1 J9 ANN ASSN AMER GEOGR BP 1 EP 12 PY 2003 PD MAR VL 93 IS 1 GA 688ED UT ISI:000183419600001 ER PT J AU Sapountzaki, K Chalkias, C TI Coping with chronic and extreme risks in contemporary Athens: Confrontation or resilience? SO SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT LA English DT Article C1 Harokopion Univ, Dept Geog, Athens 17671, Greece. RP Sapountzaki, K, Harokopion Univ, Dept Geog, Venizelou 70, Athens 17671, Greece. AB The present work attempts to address the main aspects of chronic and extreme risks in contemporary Athens. It focuses on two cases of acute chronic risk bedevilling the capital region, namely road accidents and noise pollution, and one case of extreme risk, namely seismic disasters. In all cases social vulnerability, seen as the attribute of social and economic entities that can serve to increase damage from given danger, is a basic determinant of risk level. This social vulnerability might be defined in terms of three constituent elements: exposure to, resistance against and resilience to danger impacts. The whole analysis seeks the generating causes of the relevant high risk levels; their distribution across the geographical and social space of the capital region; their impacts on citizens' lifestyle and awareness of unsustainability; the public policy actions to abate or mitigate them and the individuals' adaptive reactions or efforts to escape risks and finally the repercussions of individualized and governmental responses on future risk and vulnerability levels. Copyright (c) 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment. CR 2002, RIO DECLARATION ENV *ATT ROAD SCI, 2003, STAT DAT REF ROAD TR *EEA, 1995, EUR ENV DOBR ASS, P271 *EEA, 1998, EUR ENV 2 ASS, P271 *EEA, 2000, EIONET NOIS NEWSL, V3 *EUR, 2002, REG STAT TRANSP ROAD *HUA, 2003, SOC EC IMP SEISM EV *ICLEI, 1994, CHART EUR CIT TOWNS *MEPPW, 2002, PROGR NOIS AB *NCSR, 2003, RES PROJ TSER CAR CI *OECD, 1991, STAT ENV OECD *WHO, 1997, HLTH ENV SUST DEV 5 BLAIKIE PM, 1994, RISK NATURAL HAZARDS, V1, P1 CHRISTOPLOS I, 2003, NATURAL DISASTERS DE, P95 DAHLHAMER JM, 1996, U DEL DIS RES CTR, V243 FREEMAN H, 1996, P C HLTH WELL BEING GEARY J, 1998, TIME MAGAZINE 0427, P28 HEWITT K, 1997, REGIONS RISK GEOGRAP, V1, P1 LEONTIDOU L, 1990, MEDITERRANEAN CITY T LIVERMAN DM, 1990, UNDERSTANDING GLOBAL, V1, P27 NADIN V, 2003, SUSTAINABILITY DEV S PELLING M, 2003, VULNERABILITY CITIES SAPOUNTZAKI K, 2001, EUR PLAN STUD, V9, P407 SECRETT C, 1996, P C HLTH WELLB URB E SJOBERG L, 1987, RISK SOC STUDIES RIS STALLINGS RA, 1996, NORTHRIDGE EARTHQUAK TIERNEY KJ, 1996, DISASTER MANAGEMENT, P214 TSELENTIS GA, 2000, SEISM RES LETT, V71, P330 WEBB GR, 1999, 281 U DEL DIS RES CT NR 29 TC 0 J9 SUSTAIN DEV BP 115 EP 128 PY 2005 PD APR VL 13 IS 2 GA 919JX UT ISI:000228615400005 ER PT J AU Bryan, B Harvey, N Belperio, T Bourman, B TI Distributed process modeling for regional assessment of coastal vulnerability to sea-level rise SO ENVIRONMENTAL MODELING & ASSESSMENT LA English DT Article C1 Univ Adelaide, Dept Geog & Environm Studies, Adelaide, SA 5005, Australia. Univ Adelaide, GISCA, Natl Key Ctr Social Applicat GIS, Adelaide, SA 5005, Australia. Minotaur Gold, Fullarton, SA, Australia. RP Bryan, B, Univ Adelaide, Dept Geog & Environm Studies, Adelaide, SA 5005, Australia. AB Sea-level rise involves increases in the coastal processes of inundation and erosion which are affected by a complex interplay of physical environmental parameters at the coast. Many assessments of coastal vulnerability to sea-level rise have been derailed and localised in extent, There is a need for regional assessment techniques which identify areas vulnerable, sea-level rise. Four physical environmental parameters-elevation, exposure. aspect and slope. are modeled on a regional scale for the Northern Spencer Gulf (NSG) study area using commonly available low-resolution elevation data of 10 m contour interval and GIS-based spatial modeling techniques. Fur comparison, the same parameters are modeled on a line-scale for the False Bay area within the NSG using high-resolution elevation data. Physical environmental parameters on the two scales are statistically compared to coastal vulnerability classes as identified by Harvey et al. [1] using the Spearman rank-correlation test and stepwise linear regression. Coastal vulnerability is strongly correlated with elevation and exposure at both scales and this relationship is only slightly stronger for the high resolution False Bay data. The results of this study suggest that regional scale distributed coastal process modeling may be suitable as a "first cut" in assessing coastal vulnerability to sea-level rise in ride-dominated. sedimentary coastal regions. Distributed coastal process modeling provides a suitable basis for the assessment of coastal vulnerablity to sea-level rise of sufficient accuracy for on-ground management and priority-salting on a regional scale. CR *ESRI, 1996, ARCINF 7 0 1 *ESRI, 1998, ARCV 3 1 BARNETT E, 1996, ROYAL SOC SA T, V121, P125 BELPERIO T, 1988, TIDE INFLUENCED SEDI, P475 BELPERIO T, 1995, GEOLOGY S AUSTR MINE, V54, P219 COWELL P, 1996, P AUSTR COAST MAN C, P185 EASTMAN JR, 1997, GEO INFO SYSTEMS, V7, P38 ELRAEY M, 1997, ENVIRON MONIT ASSESS, V47, P59 EMANI S, 1993, P GIS LIS 93 BETH MA, P201 GORNITZ V, 1991, P COASTAL ZONE 91, P2354 HAMEED FA, 1995, ASIA PAC J ENV DEV, V2, P25 HAN M, 1994, ACTA GEOGR SINICA, V49, P107 HARVEY N, IN PRESS ASIA PAC J HARVEY N, 1995, COASTAL VULNERABILIT HARVEY N, 1999, AUST GEOGR STUD, V37, P50 HARVEY N, 1999, J COASTAL RES, V15, P607 HUTCHINSON MF, 1989, J HYDROL, V106, P211 HUTCHINSON MF, 1991, HYDROL PROCESS, V5, P45 JALLOW BP, 1996, CLIMATE RES, V6, P165 ORIAIN G, 1996, THESIS U DUBLIN TRIN SHENNEN, 1993, CLIMATE SEA LEVEL CH, P215 NR 21 TC 0 J9 ENVIRON MODEL ASSESS BP 57 EP 65 PY 2001 VL 6 IS 1 GA 453CE UT ISI:000169898500004 ER PT J AU McMichael, AJ Patz, JA Kovats, RS TI Impacts of global environmental change on future health and health care in tropical countries SO BRITISH MEDICAL BULLETIN LA English DT Article C1 Univ London London Sch Hyg & Trop Med, Dept Epidemiol & Populat Hlth, London WC1E 7HT, England. Johns Hopkins Univ, Sch Hyg & Publ Hlth, Div Environm & Occupat Med, Baltimore, MD USA. RP McMichael, AJ, Univ London London Sch Hyg & Trop Med, Dept Epidemiol & Populat Hlth, Keppel St, London WC1E 7HT, England. AB The aggregate human impact on the environment now exceeds the limits of absorption or regeneration of various major biophysical systems, at global and regional levels. The resultant global environmental changes include altered atmospheric composition, widespread land degradation, depletion of fisheries, freshwater shortages, and biodiversity losses. The drive for further social and economic development, plus an unavoidable substantial increase in population size by 2050 - especially in less developed countries - will tend to augment these large-scale environmental problems. Disturbances of the Earth's life-support systems (the source of climatic stability, food, freshwater, and robust ecosystems) will affect disproportionately the resource-poor and geographically vulnerable populations in many tropical countries. Ecological disturbances will alter the pattern of various pests and pathogens in plants, livestock and humans. Overall, these large-scale environmental changes are likely to increase the range and seasonality of various (especially vector-borne) infectious diseases, food insecurity, of water stress, and of population displacement with its various adverse health consequences. CR *IPCC, 1996, SCI CLIM CHANG CONTR *UN COMM SUST DEV, 1997, CRIT TRENDS GLOB CHA *UNEP, 1994, ENV EFF OZ DEPL 1994 ALEXANDRATOS N, 1995, WORLD AGR 2010 FAO S BOHLE HG, 1994, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V4, P37 BOUMA M, 1997, J TROP MED INT HLTH, V2, P1122 BOUMA MJ, 1994, LANCET, V343, P1440 BOUMA MJ, 1996, TROP MED INT HEALTH, V1, P86 BUTLER D, 1997, NATURE, V386, P535 COLUZZI M, 1994, PARASSITOLOGIA, V36, P223 COSTANZA R, 1997, NATURE, V387, P253 DECOCK KM, 1995, BRIT MED J, V311, P860 DOOS BR, 1994, AMBIO, V23, P124 DOOS BR, 1997, TIEMPO, V24, P1 DOWLATABADI H, 1993, SCIENCE, V259, P1813 DYSON T, 1996, POPULTION FOOD GLOBA ELLIS JH, 1988, ENVIRON SCI TECHNOL, V22, P1248 EPSTEIN PR, 1998, B AM METEOROL SOC, V79, P409 GUBLER DJ, 1995, EMERG INFECT DIS, V1, P55 HARB M, 1993, B WORLD HEALTH ORGAN, V71, P49 HERRERABASTO E, 1992, AM J TROP MED HYG, V46, P649 KENDALL HW, 1994, AMBIO, V23, P198 KIBREAB G, 1997, DISASTERS, V21, P20 KING M, 1993, LANCET, V341, P669 KING M, 1995, HEALTH POLICY PLANN, V10, P376 LAST J, 1995, LANCET, V346, P1642 LIFSON AR, 1996, LANCET, V347, P1201 LOEVINSOHN ME, 1994, LANCET, V343, P714 LOWENSON R, 1997, SOC SCI MED, V4, P334 MARTENS WJM, 1995, ENVIRON HEALTH PERSP, V103, P458 MARTENS WJM, 1997, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V35, P145 MARTENS WJM, 1997, HLTH IMPACTS CLIMATE MARTIN PH, 1995, AMBIO, V24, P200 MATOLA YG, 1987, J TROP MED HYG, V90, P127 MCMICHAEL AJ, 1993, PLANETARY OVERLOAD G MCMICHAEL AJ, 1997, BRIT MED J, V315, P805 MCMICHAEL AJ, 1997, ENVIRON MODEL ASSESS, V2, P129 MORSE SS, 1995, EMERG INFECT DIS, V1, P7 MURRAY CJL, 1997, LANCET, V349, P1436 NORBERGHODGE H, 1995, FUTURE PROGR, P11 PATZ JA, 1996, CLIMATE RES, V6, P113 PATZ JA, 1996, JAMA-J AM MED ASSOC, V275, P217 PATZ JA, 1997, IN PRESS ENV HLTH PE REILLY JM, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, P427 ROPELEWSKI CF, 1987, MON WEATHER REV, V115, P1606 ROTMANS J, 1990, IMAGE INTEGRATED MOD SAWYER D, 1993, SOC SCI MED, V37, P1131 TULU AN, 1966, THESIS LONDON SCH HY WALSH JF, 1993, PARASITOLOGY, V106, S55 WILSON ME, 1995, BRIT MED J, V311, P1681 WOODWARD A, 1998, IN PRESS CLIM RES NR 51 TC 10 J9 BRIT MED BULL BP 475 EP 488 PY 1998 VL 54 IS 2 GA 105WM UT ISI:000075098000017 ER PT J AU Buan, RD Maglinao, AR Evangelista, PP Pajuelas, BG TI Vulnerability of rice and corn to climate change in the Philippines SO WATER AIR AND SOIL POLLUTION LA English DT Article C1 PCARRD,LOS BANOS,LAGUNA,PHILIPPINES. BSWM,QUEZON,PHILIPPINES. RP Buan, RD, PAGASA,1424 QUEZON AVE,QUEZON,PHILIPPINES. AB The potential impact of climate change on rice and corn crops in the Philippines was assessed using preliminary results from four general circulation models and the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer. The results showed both increases and decreases in the yield of two rice varieties. The results for corn showed a consistent decrease in yield. The decrease in crop yield may be due to a shorter maturity period and an increase in potential evapotranspiration as a result of increased daytime and nighttime temperatures, which are critical to dry matter production Rainfall in tropical areas such as the Philippines is generally high, and so a decrease in rainfall of only 10% may not affect the water supply significantly, but an increase of the same magnitude may affect crop production tremendously because of frequent occurrences of floods. One potential negative impact not included in this analysis is the effects of strong winds due to typhoons. CR *ADB, 1994, CLIM CHANG AS PHIL C *DENR, 1991, REP PHIL ENV DEV ISS *NCSB, 1992, PHIL STAT YB *PCARRD, 1990, PCARRD TECHN B SER, V71 *WMO, 1994, 196 WMO BENIOFF R, IN PRESS VULNERABILI BOER GJ, 1992, J CLIMATE, V5, P1045 ESCANO CR, 1994, IMPLICATIONS CLIMATE HANSEN J, 1983, MON WEATHER REV, V111, P609 MITCHELL JFB, 1990, CLIMATE CHANGE IPCC ROSENZWEIG C, 1995, HDB CLIMATE CHANGE C WILSON CA, 1987, J GEOPHYS RES-ATMOSP, V92, P13315 NR 12 TC 3 J9 WATER AIR SOIL POLLUT BP 41 EP 51 PY 1996 PD SEP VL 92 IS 1-2 GA VM538 UT ISI:A1996VM53800006 ER PT J AU Meadows, ME Hoffman, TM TI Land degradation and climate change in South Africa SO GEOGRAPHICAL JOURNAL LA English DT Article C1 Univ Cape Town, Dept Geog & Environm Sci, ZA-7701 Rondebosch, South Africa. Univ Cape Town, Dept Bot, Inst Plant Conservat, ZA-7701 Rondebosch, South Africa. RP Meadows, ME, Univ Cape Town, Dept Geog & Environm Sci, ZA-7701 Rondebosch, South Africa. AB This paper considers the potential impact of future climate change on the nature and extent of land degradation in South Africa. The basis of the assessment is the comprehensive review published by the Department of Environmental Affairs and Tourism (DEA&T) as a contribution to the South African effort in respect of the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification. The DEA&T report is founded on information collated from 34 workshops, one in each of the agricultural regions of South Africa, involving some 453 participants consisting mainly of agricultural extension officers and soil conservation technicians. This analysis reveals that land degradation is underpinned by poverty and its structural roots in colonial and apartheid political planning. Nevertheless, future climate change represents a key challenge to the developing economies of countries like South Africa. Regionally downscaled models predicting the nature and degree of rainfall changes in the future are used to assess the possible impact of future change on the South African land degradation situation. It is concluded that the most severely degraded areas of the country, including large areas of the former 'homeland' states, are likely to become even more susceptible under predicted climate change scenarios. CR *IPCC, 2001, CLIM CHANG 2001 SUMM *UNCCD, 1995, US CONV COMB DES THO BUNDY C, 1988, RISE FALL S AFRICAN CHRISTOPHER AJ, 1995, GEOGRAPHY CHANGE S A, P3 CRANE RG, 1998, INT J CLIMATOL, V18, P65 HEWITSON B, 1999, DERIVING REGIONAL PR HEWITSON BC, 1996, CLIMATE RES, V7, P85 HOFFMAN MT, 1999, LAND DEGRADATION S A HOFFMAN MT, 2001, NATURE DIVIDED LAND HOLLOWAY A, 2000, AFRICAN MIRROR, V1, P80 RAMUTSINDELA MF, 2001, S AFRICAN GEOGRAPHIC, V83, P173 SIMON D, 2000, GEOGRAPHY S AFRICA C, P89 NR 12 TC 0 J9 GEOGR J BP 168 EP 177 PY 2003 PD JUN VL 169 GA 695MQ UT ISI:000183835000006 ER PT J AU Ericsson, K Nilsson, LJ TI Assessment of the potential biomass supply in Europe using a resource-focused approach SO BIOMASS & BIOENERGY LA English DT Article C1 Lund Univ, SE-22362 Lund, Sweden. RP Ericsson, K, Lund Univ, Gerdagatan 13, SE-22362 Lund, Sweden. AB This paper analyses the potential biomass Supply in the 15 EU countries (EU15), 8 new member states and 2 candidate countries (ACC10), plus Belarus and the Ukraine. The objective of this study is to make a more detailed assessment of the potential in Europe than previously undertaken. For this purpose five scenarios were designed to describe the short-, medium- and long-term potential of biomass for energy. The scenarios are based on assumptions regarding residue harvests, energy-crop yields and Surplus agricultural land. Energy-crop yields are correlated with the national wheat yields, a methodology we have not seen used in biomass assessments before. Our assessments show that under certain restrictions on land availability, the potential supply of biomass energy amounts to up to 11.7 EJy(-1) in the EU15 and 5.5 EJy(-1) in the ACC10. For comparison, the overall energy supply in the EU15 totalled 62.6 EJy(-1) in 2001. Consequently, there are no important resource limitations in meeting the biomass target, 5.6E Jy(-1) in the EU15 by 2010, which was set by the European Commission in the 1997 White paper on renewable energy sources (RES). However, given the slow implementation of the RES policy it is very unlikely that the biomass targets will be met. (C) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *ECE FAO, 1996, ECETIMSP11 ECEFAO *EUR COMM, 1996, COM96576 EUR COMM *EUR COMM, 1997, COM97599 EUR COMM *EUR COMM, 2001, COM2000769 EUR COMM *EUR COMM, 2003, AGR EUR UN STAT EC I *EUR COMM, 2003, COM200323 EUR COMM *EUR, 2000, 30 YEARS AGR EUR STA *FAO STAT DIV, 2003, FAOSTAT AGR DAT *INT EN AG, 2003, IEA STAT REN INF 200 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 *SOU, 1992, 199290 SOU *UN ECE FAO, 2001, TEMP BOR FOR RES ASS *UN POP DIV, 2003, WORLD POP PROSP 2002 BALDOCK D, 2002, STRACOAGR1200118 BERNDES G, 2003, BIOMASS BIOENERG, V25, P1 BORJESSON P, 2002, ENV ENERGY SYSTEM ST BORJESSON P, 2003, COMMUNICATION BORJESSON PII, 1996, BIOMASS BIOENERG, V11, P305 FISCHER G, 2001, BIOMASS BIOENERG, V20, P151 GERBENSLEENES PW, 2002, ECOL ECON, V42, P185 HALL DO, 1993, RENEWABLE ENERGY SOU, P593 HALL DO, 1999, ENVIRONMENT, V41, P5 HELBY P, 2004, ENV ENERGY SYSTEM ST HOOGWIJK M, 2003, BIOMASS BIOENERG, V25, P119 JOHANSSON TB, 1993, RENEWABLE ENERGY SOU, P1071 JOHANSSON TB, 2004, ENERGY SUSTAINABLE D, V8, P5 LINDROTH A, 1999, FOREST ECOL MANAG, V121, P57 NABUURS GJ, 2003, FUTURE WOOD SUPPLY E NONHEBEL S, 1997, QUANTITATIVE APPROAC OLESEN JE, 2002, EUR J AGRON, V16, P239 RABBINGE R, 2000, EUR J AGRON, V13, P85 ROSENQVIST H, 2000, BIOMASS BIOENERG, V18, P137 ROSENQVIST H, 2003, COMMUNICATION SAVOLAINEN V, 2000, WOOD FUELS BASIC INF VENENDAAL R, 1997, BIOMASS BIOENERG, V13, P147 YAMAMOTO H, 2001, BIOMASS BIOENERG, V21, P185 NR 36 TC 1 J9 BIOMASS BIOENERG BP 1 EP 15 PY 2006 VL 30 IS 1 GA 001JU UT ISI:000234530200001 ER PT J AU Pugh, D TI Sea level change: Meeting the challenge SO NATURE & RESOURCES LA English DT Article C1 Southampton Oceanog Ctr, Southampton SO14 32H, Hants, England. RP Pugh, D, Southampton Oceanog Ctr, European Way,Empress Dock, Southampton SO14 32H, Hants, England. AB Popular concern about increased risks of coastal flooding in a future warmer world has led to extensive scientific investigation, new monitoring programmes and assessments of local vulnerability. Tide gauge measurements show an increase of around 20 cm over the past one hundred years and plausible scenarios suggest further increases of 50 cm by 2100. The risks of coastal flooding will be significantly increasing, Changes in the intensity and pattern of storms may also influence risks of flooding. Until more extensive sea level records become available, these forecasts will probably not change substantially for several decades. Now authorities with responsibility for coastal areas at risk must act to assess present risks and to put in place systems for giving an early warning of increasing future risks. Several countries already have such systems in operation. CR *IOC, 1994, IOCINF954 UNESCO *IOC, 1997, IOC TECHN SER *IPCC, 1992, GLOB CLIM CHANG RIS *IPCC, 1994, WORLD COAST C 1993 ARTHUSBERTRAND Y, 1996, NATURE RESOUR, V32, P16 GORNITZ V, 1995, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V31, P515 HOUGHTON JJ, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995 PUGH DT, 1990, NATURE RESOURCES, V26, P36 PUGH DT, 1997, YB SCI TECHNOLOGY, P405 STEWART RW, 1990, UNESCO REPORTS MARIN, V54 TURNER RK, 1995, ENVIRON PLANN A, V27, P1777 ZANDA L, 1991, IMPACT SEA LEVEL RIS, P51 NR 12 TC 0 J9 NATURE RESOUR BP 26 EP 32 PY 1997 VL 33 IS 3-4 GA ZN333 UT ISI:000073635400004 ER PT J AU Miller, P Mitchell, M Lopez, L TI Climate change: Length of growing-season in the US Corn Belt, 1911-2000 SO PHYSICAL GEOGRAPHY LA English DT Article C1 Minnesota State Univ Mankato, Dept Geog, Mankato, MN 56001 USA. RP Miller, P, Minnesota State Univ Mankato, Dept Geog, Armstrong Hall 7, Mankato, MN 56001 USA. AB Length of growing-season data were obtained from 90 weather stations covering the core of the U.S. Corn Belt from 1911-2000 and analyzed qualitatively and statistically to ascertain if any systematic trends in warming were/are occurring within the context of global warming. We found that the 1920s were statistically cooler and the 1990s warmer. No discernible trend was statistically found throughout the 90-year period. Qualitatively, the onset of the growing season occurred at an earlier date as the 20th century progressed, but was not found statistically significant. Trends regarding termination dates were inconclusive. CR *FAO UN, 2004, DAT FAOSTAT PROD CRO *N DAK STAT U, 2004, FALL FROST DAM FIELD *ONT MIN FOOD AGR, 2002, CORN HYB SEL *UN FRAM CONV CLI, 1992, MESS PRES US TRANSM *USDA, 2000 WORLD ALM BOOK AGUADO E, 2001, UNDERSTANDING WEATHE BARON WR, 1984, J CLIM APPL METEOROL, V23, P317 BRINKMANN WAR, 1979, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V2, P127 BROWN JA, 1976, NATURE, V260, P421 BUTZER KW, 1980, PROF GEOGR, V32, P269 CHANGNON SA, 1984, CLIMATE FLUCTUATIONS CHMIELEWSKI FM, 2002, CLIMATE RES, V19, P257 COOTER EJ, 1995, INT J CLIMATOL, V15, P65 DIEM JE, 2003, PROF GEOGR, V55, P343 EASTERLING DR, 2000, B AM METEOROL SOC, V81, P417 FENG S, 2004, THEOR APPL CLIMATOL, V78, P247 GATES WL, 1990, CLIMATE CHANGE IPCC, P99 GILBERT RO, 1987, STAT METHODS ENV POL GRIFFITH DA, 1991, STAT ANAL GEOGRAPHER HAMED KH, 1998, J HYDROL, V204, P182 HOUGH K, 2004, COLD TOLERANCE CORN HOUGHTON JT, 1991, P 2 WORLD CLIM C CAM, P22 JONES PD, 1995, INT J CLIMATOL, V15, P943 KARL TR, 1993, B AM METEOROL SOC, V74, P1007 KUNKEL KE, 2004, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V31 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 MITCHELL M, 1997, OHIO J SCI, V97, P53 MORAN JM, 1977, AGR METEOROL, V18, P1 NEWMAN JE, 1980, BIOMETEOROLOGY, V7, P128 PARRY ML, 1992, CONFRONTING CLIMATE, P113 PIELKE RA, 2002, INT J CLIMATOL, V22, P421 ROBESON SM, 2002, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V52, P219 ROBINSON P, 1999, CONTEMPORARY CLIMATO, P233 SCHEIFINGER H, 2003, THEOR APPL CLIMATOL, V74, P41 SCHWARTZ MD, 2000, INT J CLIMATOL, V20, P929 SHARRATT BS, 1992, ARCTIC, V45, P124 SKAGGS RH, 1985, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V7, P403 SMITH J, 1989, POTENTIAL EFFECTS GL STEURER P, 1996, CREATION SERIALLY CO SUCKLING PW, 1988, PROF GEOGR, V40, P186 SUCKLING PW, 2000, PHYS GEOGR, V21, P38 VILLMOW J, 1952, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V42, P94 WAYLEN PR, 1989, J CLIMATE, V2, P1314 NR 43 TC 0 J9 PHYS GEOGR BP 85 EP 98 PY 2005 PD MAR-APR VL 26 IS 2 GA 968NH UT ISI:000232168700001 ER PT J AU Parry, ML TI Climate change: where should our research priorities be? SO GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS LA English DT Editorial Material C1 Univ E Anglia, Jackson Environm Inst, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. RP Parry, ML, Univ E Anglia, Jackson Environm Inst, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. CR MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 *IPCC, 2001, CLIM CHANG 2001 MIT *IPCC, 2001, CLIM CHANG 2001 SCI NR 3 TC 5 J9 GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANGE BP 257 EP 260 PY 2001 PD DEC VL 11 IS 4 GA 503KB UT ISI:000172796700001 ER PT J AU Miles, SB Chang, SE TI Modeling community recovery from earthquakes SO EARTHQUAKE SPECTRA LA English DT Article C1 ECO Resource Grp, Seattle, WA USA. Univ British Columbia, Sch Community & Reg Planning, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z2, Canada. RP Miles, SB, ECO Resource Grp, Seattle, WA USA. AB This paper sets out the foundations for developing robust models of community recovery from earthquake disasters. Models that anticipate post-disaster trajectories are complementary to loss estimation models that predict damage and loss. Such models can serve as important decision support tools for increasing community resilience and reducing disaster vulnerability. The paper first presents a comprehensive conceptual model of recovery. The conceptual model enumerates important relationships between a community's households, businesses, lifeline networks, and neighborhoods. The conceptual model can be operationalized to create a numerical model of recovery. To demonstrate this, we present a prototype computer simulation model and oraphical user interface. As the model is intended for decision support, it is important to involve potential users in model development. We conducted a focus group involving Puget Sound, Washington, area disaster management practitioners to elicit local insight about community recovery and model development needs, using the prototype as stimulus. Important focus group issues included potential model inputs, useful recovery indicators, potential uses of recovery models, and suitable types of software systems. CR ALESCH D, 1998, NEHRP C WORKSH RES N BERKE PR, 1993, DISASTERS, V17, P93 BLAIKIE PM, 1994, RISK NATURAL HAZARDS, V1, P1 BOLIN R, 1986, RACE RELIG ETHNICITY BOLIN R, 1991, DISASTERS, V15, P24 BOLIN R, 1993, HOUSEHOLD COMMUNITY BROOKSHIRE DS, 1997, EARTHQ SPECTRA, V13, P683 BRUNEAU M, 2003, EARTHQ SPECTRA, V19, P733 CHAN KS, 2000, OPTOELEC PROP SEMIC, V8, P1 CHANG SE, 2001, KOKUMIN KEIZAI ZASSH, V183, P47 CHANG SE, 2002, ENV HAZ, V4, P59 CHANG SE, 2004, EARTHQ SPECTRA, V20, P739 DURKIN M, 1984, INT C NAT HAZ MIT RE DURRENBERGER G, 1999, SCI PUBL POLICY, V26, P341 HAAS JE, 1977, RECONSTRUCTION FOLLO HENNEN L, 1999, SCI PUBL POLICY, V26, P303 HEWITT K, 1997, REGIONS RISK GEOGRAP, V1, P1 HIRAYAMA Y, 2000, HOUSING STUD, V15, P111 HOGG SJ, 1980, DISASTERS, V4, P173 HORNECKER E, 2002, PDC 2002, P243 KROLL C, 1991, 91187 U CAL UC TRANS LOUKAITOUSIDERI.A, 2004, RESIDENTIAL RECOVERY MILES SB, 2000, 00401 US GEOL SURV MILES SB, 2004, PARTICIPATORY ASSESS MILES SB, 2003, 030005 MCEER MILES SB, 2004, P 13 WORLD C EARTHQ OKUYAMA Y, 2000, 47 N AM M REG SCI AS OKUYAMA Y, 2004, MODELING SPATIAL EC ROSELLO M, 1997, ESPRIT CREATEUR, V37, P3 RUBIN C, 1991, EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT, P224 RUBIN CB, 1990, DISASTER RECOVERY HU RUMBAUGH J, 1991, OBJECT ORIENTED MODE TIERNEY KJ, 1998, NEHRP C WORKSH RES N WHITMAN RV, 1997, EARTHQ SPECTRA, V13, P643 NR 34 TC 0 J9 EARTHQ SPECTRA BP 439 EP 458 PY 2006 PD MAY VL 22 IS 2 GA 054KS UT ISI:000238376100008 ER PT J AU DeHart, JL Soule, PT TI Does I=PAT Work in local places? SO PROFESSIONAL GEOGRAPHER LA English DT Article C1 Appalachian State Univ, Dept Geog & Planning, Boone, NC 28608 USA. Univ N Carolina, Chapel Hill, NC USA. RP DeHart, JL, Appalachian State Univ, Dept Geog & Planning, Boone, NC 28608 USA. AB An aspect of global change currently not well understood is how processes operating on spatial scales finer than those used in recent global circulation models (GCMs) contribute to changes in atmospheric composition and the subsequent changes in climate. We use the "IPAT" formulation as a framework to test relationships among social driving forces and user group greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in northwestern North Carolina. Using regression, correlatian, and bivariate mapping to examine relationships between a suite of socioeconomic variables and GHG emissions for the residential, commercial/industrial, and agricultural end-user categories, we find that various measures of population and affluence serve equally well as explanatory variables. CR *ASU DEP GEOGR, 1996, N CAR GREENH GAS EM *ASU DEP GEOGR, 1997, UNUB US GROUP EM PRO *EIA, 1991, DOEEIA009590 *EIA, 1995, DOEEIA021493 *EPA, 1995, EPA230B92002 *NCSDC, 1993, LOG N CAR LINC US GU ANGEL DP, 1998, LOCAL ENV, V3, P263 CLIFF AD, 1973, SPATIAL AUTOCORRELAT COMMONER B, 1991, INT J HEALTH SERV, V21, P199 CRAMER JC, 1997, HUMAN ECOLOGY REV, V3, P191 CRAMER JC, 1998, DEMOGRAPHY, V35, P45 DIETZ T, 1994, HUMAN ECOLOGY REV, V1, P277 DIETZ T, 1997, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V94, P175 EHRLICH PR, 1971, SCIENCE, V171, P1212 ENGELMAN R, 1995, J ENV DEV, V4, P111 HOLDREN JP, 1993, UNPUB BRIEF HIST IPA HYNES HP, 1993, TAKING POPULATION OU, V1 KASPERSON JX, 1995, REGIONS RISK, V1, P1 RASKIN PD, 1995, ECOL ECON, V15, P225 SAGE C, 1994, CHANGES LAND USE LAN, P263 SOULE PT, 1998, SOC SCI QUART, V79, P754 TURNER BL, 1995, REGIONS RISK COMPARI, P519 NR 22 TC 3 J9 PROF GEOGR BP 1 EP 10 PY 2000 PD FEB VL 52 IS 1 GA 284ZQ UT ISI:000085363100001 ER PT J AU Nichols, T Berkes, F Jolly, D Snow, NB TI Climate change and sea ice: Local observations from the Canadian Western Arctic SO ARCTIC LA English DT Article C1 Fisheries & Oceans Canada, Calgary, AB T2E 8X4, Canada. Univ Manitoba, Nat Resources Inst, Winnipeg, MB R3T 2N2, Canada. Lincoln Univ, Ctr Maori & Indigenous Planning & Dev, Canterbury, New Zealand. Joint Secretariat Inuvialuit Renewalbe Resources, Inuvik, NT X0E 0T0, Canada. Community Sachs Harbour, Sach Harbour Hunters & Trappers Comm, Sachs Harbour, NT X0E 0Z0, Canada. RP Nichols, T, Fisheries & Oceans Canada, 7646 8th St NE, Calgary, AB T2E 8X4, Canada. AB Can local observations and indigenous knowledge be used to provide information that complements research on climate change? Using participatory research methodology and semi-directed interviews, we explored local and traditional knowledge about changes in sea ice in the area of Sachs Harbour, Northwest Territories. In this small Inuvialuit community, we interviewed all of the 16 community members and elders considered to be local experts on sea ice to ask about their observations. We organized their comments under the headings multiyear ice, first-year ice, fractures and pressure ridges, breakup and freeze-up seasons, and other climate-related variables that influence sea ice (such as changes in winter, spring and summer temperatures, wind, rain, and thunderstorms). Observations were remarkably consistent in providing evidence of local change in such variables as multiyear ice distribution, first-year ice thickness, and ice breakup dates. The changes observed in the 1990s were said to be without precedent and outside the normal range of variation. In assessing the relevance of Inuvialuit knowledge to scientific research on climate change, we note some of the areas in which sharing of information between the two systems of knowledge may be mutually beneficial. These include the analysis of options for adapting to climate change and the generation of research questions and hypotheses for future studies. CR *FRIIB WORKSH, 2000, FRIIB WORKSH SUST SC *WMO, 1970, 259 WMO SECR WORLD M BERKES F, 1999, SACRED ECOLOGY TRADT BERKES F, 2001, CONSERV ECOL, V5, P1 BORRE K, 1991, MED ANTHROPOL Q, V5, P48 CONDON RG, 1995, ARCTIC, V48, P31 CRUIKSHANK J, 2001, ARCTIC, V54, P377 FAST H, 1998, CANADIAN COUNTRY STU, V8 FENGE T, 2001, CANADIAN J POLICY RE, V2, P79 FORD N, 2000, J DEV COMMUNICATIONS, V1, P93 FREEMAN MMR, 1984, PEOPLE WHO USE SEA I, P73 FURGAL CM, 1996, CAN J ZOOL, V74, P858 HARVEY DL, 2000, GLOBAL WARMING HARD HOLLOWAY G, 2002, J CLIMATE, V15, P1691 HOUGHTEN JT, 1995, SCI ASSESSMENT HOUGHTEN JT, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995 HUNTINGTON HP, 1998, ARCTIC, V51, P237 HUNTINGTON HP, 2000, WITNESS ARCTIC CHRON, P1 INGOLD T, 2000, BODY SOC, V6, P183 JOLLY D, 2002, EARTH IS FASTER NOW, P93 KRUPNIK I, 2002, EARTH IS FASTER NOW KRUPNIK I, 2002, EARTH IS FASTER NOW, P156 LEDREW EF, 1993, ISTSEOLTR93010 SCI D LUDWIG D, 2001, ECOSYSTEMS, V4, P758 MASLANIK JA, 1999, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V26, P1905 MAXWELL B, 1997, CANADA COUNTRY STUDY, V2 MCDONALD M, 1997, VOICES BAY TRADITION NICHOLS T, 1999, THESIS U MANITOBA WI NORTON DW, 2002, EARTH FASTER NOW IND, P126 RIEDLINGER D, 2001, POLAR REC, V37, P315 RIEWE R, 1991, ARCTIC ALPINE RES, V23, P3 ROTHROCK DA, 1999, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V26, P3469 SMITH TG, 1975, CAN J ZOOL, V53, P1297 USHER PJ, 1970, BANKSLANDERS EC ECOL USHER PJ, 2000, ARCTIC, V53, P183 USHER PJ, 2002, ARCTIC S1, V55, P18 WATSON RT, 1998, REGIONAL IMPACTS CLI, V1, P1 WENZEL GW, 1999, ARCTIC, V52, P113 ZHANG JL, 2000, J CLIMATE, V13, P3099 NR 39 TC 0 J9 ARCTIC BP 68 EP 79 PY 2004 PD MAR VL 57 IS 1 GA 810UI UT ISI:000220728800007 ER PT J AU Ehrlich, PR TI Conservation in temperate forests: What do we need to know and do? SO FOREST ECOLOGY AND MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article RP Ehrlich, PR, STANFORD UNIV,CTR CONSERVAT BIOL,DEPT BIOL SCI,STANFORD,CA 94305. AB Very little is known about some key variables that would be involved in any sound program to conserve biodiversity in temperate forests. For example, the distributions of both species and population diversity are almost totally unexplored. How well species diversity in different groups is correlated at a local scale is unknown; as a result it is unclear whether there are any 'indicator groups' that can serve as surrogates for overall species diversity when designing specific conservation projects. Equally, the areal extent of both Mendelian populations and demographic units in forests of various types is essentially unknown, as is the frequency of occurrence of metapopulations. There is thus a need for a geographically and ecologically stratified sample of studies evaluating patterns of both species and population diversity. That sample should also provide information in other areas where much more understanding is required for the formulation of sound policies. These include issues of: time-scale (maintenance of appropriate successional stages and disturbance regimes, the long-term viability of heavily harvested forests or plantations, and rates of evolutionary response to global change); edge effects and their penetration into forest; 'vulnerability', including interactions between climatic stress and insect infestation, susceptibility to invasions or to extinction cascades, and other subtle effects such as habitat dilution. Such information is essential to judge how easily management practices may be adapted to different forests. It can be used to improve 'internal' conservation strategies: those based on knowledge of the systems to be conserved. There are, however, internal strategies whose adoption requires no more scientific information than is available now. These include a ban on further timber harvesting in old-growth or riparian zones; limited harvests in mature second growth with careful monitoring; concentration of exploitation in present plantations; and restoration of degraded lands to conservation or plantation status. 'External' strategies are designed to limit and then to reduce the scale of human enterprise to make the internal strategies feasible. While what needs to be done there is very clear, how to accomplish it is not. In the face of all this ignorance, some priorities are suggested for research, and some 'common sense' strategies of conservation that can be used faute de mieux while awaiting more thorough understanding of temperate forest ecosystems. The most important is that conservation biologists spend much more time on external strategies. CR *NAT RES COUNC, 1993, BIOL SURV NAT *WORLD COMM ENV DE, 1987, COMM FUT *WORLD CONS MON CT, 1992, GLOB BIOD STAT EARTH ANDREN H, 1992, ECOLOGY, V73, P794 BART J, 1992, BIOL CONSERV, V62, P95 BENKMAN CW, 1993, CONSERV BIOL, V7, P473 BENKMAN CW, 1993, ECOL MONOGR, V63, P305 BINFORD LC, 1975, WILSON B, V87, P303 BLAUSTEIN AR, 1994, CONSERV BIOL, V8, P60 BOHNINGGAESE K, 1993, CONSERV BIOL, V7, P76 BROWN IL, 1980, OECOLOGIA, V47, P239 BURDON JJ, 1994, OECOLOGIA, V97, P419 BURLEY FW, 1988, BIODIVERSITY BUSE A, 1993, BIOL CONSERV, V64, P67 CUMUTT J, 1994, NATURE, V367, P326 DAILY GC, 1993, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V90, P592 DAILY GC, 1995, BIODIVERS CONSERV, V4, P35 DEAL C, 1993, GREENPEACE GUIDE ANT DWYER LE, 1995, CONSERV BIOL, V9, P725 EHRLICH PR, 1981, EXTINCTION CAUSES CO EHRLICH PR, 1964, SYST ZOOL, V13, P109 EHRLICH PR, 1988, AM BIRDS, V42, P357 EHRLICH PR, 1989, BIOL INVASIONS GLOBA, P315 EHRLICH PR, 1994, PHILOS T ROY SOC B, V344, P99 FELLERS GM, 1993, BIOL CONSERV, V65, P177 GRANGER L, 1994, OECOLOGIA, V98, P221 HOLDREN JP, 1991, POPUL ENVIRON, V12, P231 HUGGARD DJ, 1994, C CONS BIOL DIV TEMP JACKSON JA, 1977, AUK, V94, P160 JACKSON JA, 1986, AM BIRDS, V40, P1162 JOHANSSON T, 1993, RENEWABLE ENERGY 199 LAMBERSON RH, 1994, CONSERV BIOL, V8, P185 LINDENMAYER DB, 1993, BIOL CONSERV, V66, P207 MARGULES CR, 1994, ECOLOGY, V75, P2033 MARQUIS RJ, 1994, ECOLOGY, V75, P2007 MATSON PA, 1987, ECOLOGY, V68, P491 MAURER BA, 1993, CONSERV BIOL, V7, P501 MCINTYRE S, 1992, CONSERV BIOL, V6, P604 MOPPER S, 1992, ECOLOGY, V73, P515 MYERS N, 1990, ENVIRONMENTALIST, V10, P243 MYERS N, 1994, BIODIVERS CONSERV, V3, P411 NIEMELA J, 1993, CONSERV BIOL, V7, P551 NOSS RF, 1991, BALANCING BRINK EXTI, P227 PATTON PW, 1994, CONSERV BIOL, V8, P17 PEARSON DL, 1992, CONSERV BIOL, V6, P376 PETERS R, 1982, GLOBAL WARMING BIOL PRENDERGAST JR, 1993, NATURE, V365, P335 SAETERSDAL M, 1993, BIOL CONSERV, V66, P131 SANTOS T, 1994, BIOL CONSERV, V70, P129 SCHNEIDER S, 1989, GLOBAL WARMING SCHREIBER RK, 1988, CONSERV BIOL, V2, P249 SCOTT JM, 1987, BIOSCIENCE, V37, P782 SCOTT JM, 1991, BALANCING BRINK EXTI, P282 SISK T, 1996, UNPUB OECOLOGIA SISK TD, 1994, BIOSCIENCE, V44, P592 SMALLWOOD KS, 1994, BIOL CONSERV, V69, P251 SMITH CC, 1979, AM ZOOL, V19, P1065 SPRUGEL DG, 1991, BIOL CONSERV, V58, P1 THWAITES T, 1951, NEW SCI, V144, P21 VILLAR L, 1993, BIOL CONSERV, V66, P85 VIRKKALA R, 1993, BIOL CONSERV, V66, P47 WALKINSHAW LH, 1983, KIRTLANDS WARBLER NA WEISS S, 1994, OECOLOGIA, V96, P261 WILCOVE DS, 1985, ECOLOGY, V66, P1211 WILLSON MF, 1994, CONSERV BIOL, V8, P508 NR 65 TC 33 J9 FOREST ECOL MANAGE BP 9 EP 19 PY 1996 PD SEP VL 85 IS 1-3 GA VZ107 UT ISI:A1996VZ10700002 ER PT J AU Beaudoin, AB TI Recent environmental change in the southwestern Canadian Plains SO CANADIAN GEOGRAPHER-GEOGRAPHE CANADIEN LA English DT Article C1 Univ Regina, Dept Geog, Regina, SK S4S 0A2, Canada. Prov Museum Alberta, Archaeol Survey, Edmonton, AB T5N 0M6, Canada. RP Beaudoin, AB, Univ Regina, Dept Geog, Regina, SK S4S 0A2, Canada. AB This paper examines 20th-century environmental change in the subhumid southwestern Canadian Plains, specifically in relation to the dominant agricultural landscape and to the climate of the past millennium as reconstructed from proxy data. Anthropogenic landscape change in the last century has been dominated by the conversion of grasslands to ranchland and cropland. This has heightened landscape vulnerability to climatic fluctuations, especially drought. Instrumental climate records, extending back to the 1880s, highlight the variability of precipitation in this region. Proxy environmental records, derived from lake cores and tree-ring analysis, extend this picture into the last millennium and show that drought has been a recurring theme of the Prairie climate. Tree-ring records suggest that some droughts in the last millennium may have exceeded in severity any in the instrumental record. The sustainability of Prairie agriculture depends on adaptation to the amplitudes of climatic change and variability evident in these proxy records. 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Univ E Anglia, Ctr Social & Econ Res Global Environm, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. RP Adger, WN, Univ E Anglia, Sch Environm Sci, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. AB This paper analyses the interactions between land use, institutions and culture in the context of climatic extremes in Vietnam. Although there has been a long history of examining the evolutionary nature of markets and institutions within an institutional economics framework, developing the institutional economic approach to include society environment interactions allows examination of processes which facilitate and constrain economic development. For example, this approach is used here to explain adaptation processes whereby climatic risk affects collective responses. These responses form an evolutionary link between institutions, culture, resources and the physical environment. The paper argues that historically climatic risks have been a factor in technological and political response within the agrarian society of Vietnam, in the sense that climatic extremes have acted as triggers to some significant social upheavals. In the past century, the impacts of colonialism, political change and related changes in social organisation, have significantly altered the social basis of resilience to climate extremes. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. 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Univ Calif Berkeley, Berkeley, CA 94720 USA. Arizona State Univ, Global Inst Sustainabil, Tempe, AZ 85287 USA. RP Langridge, R, Univ Calif Santa Cruz, Santa Cruz, CA 95064 USA. AB Resilience is a vital attribute that characterizes a system's capacity to cope with stress. Researchers have examined the measurement of resilience in ecosystems and in social-ecological systems, and the comparative vulnerability of social groups. Our paper refocuses attention on the processes and relations that create social resilience. Our central proposition is that the creation of social resilience is linked to a community's ability to access critical resources. We explore this proposition through an analysis of how community resilience to the stress of water scarcity is influenced by historically contingent mechanisms to gain, control, and maintain access to water. Access is defined broadly as the ability of a community to actually benefit from a resource, and includes a wider range of relations than those derived from property rights alone. We provide a framework for assessing the construction of social resilience and use it to examine, first, the different processes and relations that enabled four communities in northern California to acquire access to water, and second, how access contributed to their differential levels of resilience to potential water scarcity. Legal water rights are extremely difficult to alter, and given the variety of mechanisms that can generate access, our study suggests that strengthening and diversifying a range of structural and relational mechanisms to access water can enhance a community's resilience to water scarcity. 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AB Preparing agriculture for adaptation to climate change requires advance knowledge of how climate will change and when. The direct physical and biological impacts on plants and animals must be understood. The indirect impacts on agriculture's resource base of soils, water and genetic resources must also be known. We lack such information now and will, likely, for some time to come. Thus impact assessments for agriculture can only be conjectural at this time, However, guidance can be gotten from an improved understanding of current climatic vulnerabilities of agriculture and its resource base, from application of a realistic range of climate change scenarios to impact assessment, and from consideration of the complexity of current agricultural systems and the range of adaptation techniques and policies now available and likely to be available in the future. CR 1984, CAST102 REP 1986, DESERTIFICATION CONT 1990, CHOICES NEW CENTURY ADAMS R, 1989, POTENTIAL EFFECTS GL ADAMS RM, 1989, AM J AGR ECON, V71, P1272 ALLEN RG, 1989, POTENTIAL EFFECTS GL ALLEN SG, 1990, DOEER0450T OFF EN RE BACH W, 1979, ENVIRON INT, V2, P215 BBLASING TJ, 1982, PUBLICATION ENV SCI, V2134 BURTON I, 1978, ENV HAZARD, V1, P1 CAPINERA JL, 1989, ENVIRON ENTOMOL, V18, P8 CHAUDHURI UN, 1990, AGRON J, V82, P637 COMPTON JT, 1991, SCIENCE, V253, P299 COYNE DP, 1974, PLANT DIS REP, V58, P379 CROSSON PR, 1989, AM J AGR ECON, V71, P1283 CROSSON PR, 1989, SCI AM, V261, P128 EASTERLING WE, 1989, GREENHOUSE WARMING A, P91 FAJER ED, 1989, SCIENCE, V243, P1198 FREDERICK KD, 1990, CLIMATE CHANGE US WA, P395 GLANTZ MH, 1988, SOC RESPONSES REGION, P113 GOODMAN RM, 1987, SCIENCE, V236, P48 GROTCH SL, 1988, DOENBB0084 US DEP EN JENNY H, 1941, FACTORS SOIL FORMATI JODHA NS, 1989, GREENHOUSE WARMING A, P147 JONES CA, 1986, CERES MAIZE SIMULATI JONES JW, 1988, SOYBEAN CROP GROWTH, V8304 KATZ RW, 1977, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V1, P85 KELLOGG WW, 1982, FOREIGN AFF, V60, P1076 KEYFITZ N, 1989, SCI AM, V260, P118 KIMBALL BA, 1990, AM SOC AGRONOMY SPEC, V53 KOHLMAIER GH, 1987, TELLUS B, V39, P155 KROMM DE, 1990, CONSERVING WATER HIG LEMON ER, 1976, FATE FOSSIL FUEL CO2, P97 LINCOLN DE, 1984, ENVIRON ENTOMOL, V13, P1527 MILLER KA, 1988, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V12, P135 NEWMAN JE, 1982, IMPACTS RISING ATMOS, V2 PARRY ML, 1988, IMPACT CLIMATIC VARI RAWLINS SL, 1988, 1ST P N AM C PREP CL, P451 RHODES SL, 1991, WORLD DEV, V19, P1137 RIEBSAME WE, 1991, DROUGHT NATURAL RESO RITCHIE JT, 1985, USDA ARS, V38, P159 ROSENBERG NJ, 1979, MODIFICATION AERIAL, V2, P394 ROSENBERG NJ, 1981, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V3, P265 ROSENBERG NJ, 1982, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V4, P239 ROSENBERG NJ, 1990, CLIMATE CHANGE US WA, P151 ROSENBERG NJ, 1991, DOERL01830TH5 OVERV ROSENZWEIG C, 1985, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V7, P367 ROSENZWEIG C, 1989, AM J AGR ECON, V71, P1265 ROSENZWEIG C, 1989, POTENTIAL EFFECTS GL, V1 SCHLESINGER ME, 1985, DOEER0237 US DEP EN SCHNEIDER SH, 1989, GREENHOUSE WARMING A, P7 SMITH JB, 1989, POTENTIAL EFFECTS GL TANS PP, 1990, SCIENCE, V247, P1431 WAGGONER PE, 1983, CARBON DIOXIDE ASSES WATSON AJ, 1991, NATURE, V350, P50 WILHITE DA, 1979, OCP279 U NEBR LINC N WILKS DS, 1988, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V13, P19 WILSON EO, 1989, SCI AM, V261, P108 NR 58 TC 28 J9 CLIMATIC CHANGE BP 385 EP 405 PY 1992 PD AUG VL 21 IS 4 GA JF464 UT ISI:A1992JF46400004 ER PT J AU McCaffrey, S TI Thinking of wildfire as a natural hazard SO SOCIETY & NATURAL RESOURCES LA English DT Article C1 US Forest Serv, USDA, N Cent Res Stn, Evanston, IL 60201 USA. RP McCaffrey, S, US Forest Serv, USDA, N Cent Res Stn, 1033 Univ Pl,Ste 360, Evanston, IL 60201 USA. AB Natural hazards theory with its emphasis on understanding the human - hazard interaction has much to offer in better understanding how individuals respond to the wild. re hazard. Ironically, very few natural hazards studies have actually looked at wildfires, despite the insights the field might offer. This report is structured around four interrelated questions that are often heard from individuals involved with wild. re management. Examining these four items through the natural hazards lens can demonstrate just a few of the ways the field can help us think more clearly about individual response to risk and how to increase participation in fire mitigation and support for. re management practices. CR *NAT FIR PROT ASS, 2003, OAKL BERK HILLS FIR BURTON I, 1978, ENV HAZARD, V1, P1 COOK S, 1997, AUSTR J EMERG MANAG, V12, P24 FAUPEL CE, 1996, RES SOCIAL WORK DISA, P131 HEWITT K, 1997, REGIONS RISK GEOGRAP, V1, P1 KASPERSON RE, 1994, ENV RISKS HAZARDS, P112 KATES RW, 1994, ENV RISKS HAZARDS, P78 LOEHER LL, 1984, C P LIVING CHAPARRAL, P51 MCCAFFREY S, 2002, WANT DEFENSIBLE SPAC MILETI D, 1994, ENV RISKS HAZARDS, P178 MILETI DS, 1987, TAKING CARE UNDERSTA, P189 MITCHELL B, 1993, GEOGRAPHY RESOURCE A NEIL RB, 1989, NATURAL HAZARDS REIN, P107 ORIORDAN T, 1986, GEOGRAPHY RESOURCES, P272 PALM R, 1990, NATURAL HAZARDS INTE PALM R, 1994, ENV RISKS HAZARDS, P194 PLOUGH A, 1990, READINGS RISK, P223 RICE CL, 1991, GTRPSW127 USDA FOR S RUBIN CB, 1996, COAST COAST 20 YEARS, P14 SIMS JH, 1983, ENVIRON BEHAV, V15, P165 SLOVIC P, 1987, TAKING CARE UNDERSTA, P14 SLOVIC P, 1990, READINGS RISK, P61 SORENSEN JH, 1987, TAKING CARE UNDERSTA, P208 TIERNEY KJ, 1993, SOCIOECONOMIC ASPECT WHITE GF, 1994, ENV RISKS HAZARDS, P4 WHYTE AVT, 1986, GEOGRAPHY RESOURCES, P240 WINTER G, 2000, SOC NATUR RESOUR, V13, P33 WINTER GJ, 2001, FOREST SCI, V47, P349 NR 28 TC 0 J9 SOC NATUR RESOUR BP 509 EP 516 PY 2004 PD JUL VL 17 IS 6 GA 823AQ UT ISI:000221582500004 ER PT J AU Kont, A Jaagus, J Aunap, R TI Climate change scenarios and the effect of sea-level rise for Estonia SO GLOBAL AND PLANETARY CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 Inst Ecol, Tartu Dept, EE-51005 Tartu, Estonia. Univ Tartu, Dept Geog, EE-51014 Tartu, Estonia. RP Kont, A, Inst Ecol, Tartu Dept, Lai 40, EE-51005 Tartu, Estonia. AB Climate warming due to the enhanced greenhouse effect is expected to have a significant impact on natural environment and human activity in high latitudes. Mostly, it should have a positive effect on human activity. The main threats in Estonia that could be connected with sea-level rise are the flooding of coastal areas, erosion of sandy beaches and the destruction of harbour constructions. Possible climate change and its negative impacts in the coastal regions of Estonia are estimated in this paper. Climate change scenarios for Estonia were generated using a Model for the Assessment of Greenhouse-gas Induced Climate Change (MAGICC) and a regional climate change database-SCENanario GENerator (SCENGEN). Three alternative emission scenarios were combined with data from 14 general circulation model experiments. Climate change scenarios for the year 2100 indicate a significant increase in air temperature (by 2.3-4.5 degreesC) and precipitation (by 5-30%) in Estonia. The highest increase is expected to take place during winter and the lowest increase in summer. Due to a long coastline (3794 km) and extensive low-lying coastal areas, global climate change through sea-level rise will strongly affect the territory of Estonia. A number of valuable natural ecosystems will be in danger. These include both marine and terrestrial systems containing rare plant communities and suitable breeding places for birds. Most sandy beaches high in recreational value will disappear. However, isostatic land uplift and the location of coastal settlements at a distance from the present coastline reduce the rate of risk. Seven case study areas characterising all the shore types of Estonia have been selected for sea-level rise vulnerability and adaptation assessment. Results and estimates of vulnerability to 1.0-m sea-level rise by 2100 are presented in this paper. This is the maximum scenario according to which the actually estimated relative sea-level rise would vary from 0.9 m (SW Estonia) to 0.7 m on the north-western coast due to different velocities of land uplift in the studied areas. The longest coastline section recession (6.4 km) would occur on the western coast of the mainland where extensive areas of reed bed and flooded meadows would relocate landwards or disappear. Possible damages in Tallinn, the capital city, would be the greatest compared to the other study areas. The greatest threat to the environment of the Gulf of Finland and the whole Baltic Sea is the dumping site of the former uranium enrichment plant in Sillamae which is situated very close to the coastline and can be easily influenced during storms. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V All rights reserved. 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RP Ogunseitan, OA, Univ Calif Irvine, Sch Social Ecol, Dept Environm Anal & Design, Irvine, CA 92697 USA. AB The reconciliation of national development plans with global priority to mitigate environmental change remains an intractable policy controversy. In Africa, its resolution requires integrating local knowledge into impact assessments without compromising the scientific integrity of the assessment process. This requires better understanding of the communication pathways involved in progressing from frame construction to political action on various environmental issues. The impacts of environmental factors on human health are a common concern in Africa, and it is examined here as a platform for negotiating controversies surrounding the arrogation of global support for local assessments of vulnerability and mitigation. The study focused on the particularities of projected impacts of climate change, and specifically on considerations of the health sector within the context of multivalent international agreements to conduct and use environmental assessments. The analysis addresses limitations of cross-scale communication nodes that are embedded in boundary institutions such as the Country Study Program which is hosted by industrialized nations. The translation of rhetoric into action frames through dynamic vulnerability assessments and critical frame reflection can equally engage indigenous and aided capacity for adapting to environmental change. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. 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SO ENVIRONMENT LA English DT Editorial Material C1 Univ Calif Santa Cruz, Dept Environm Studies, Santa Cruz, CA 95064 USA. RP Farrell, B, Univ Calif Santa Cruz, Dept Environm Studies, Santa Cruz, CA 95064 USA. 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CICERO, N-0318 Oslo, Norway. RP OBrien, K, Univ Oslo, Dept Sociol & Human Geog, POB 1096 Blindern, N-0317 Oslo, Norway. AB Most European assessments of climate change impacts have been carried out on sectors and ecosystems, providing a narrow understanding of what climate change really means for society. Furthermore, the main focus has been on technological adaptations, with less attention paid to the process of climate change adaptation. In this article, we present and analyze findings from recent studies on climate change impacts, vulnerability, and adaptation in Norway, with the aim of identifying the wider social impacts of climate change. Three main lessons can be drawn. First, the potential thresholds and indirect effects may be more important than the direct, sectoral effects. Second, highly sensitive sectors, regions, and communities combine with differential social vulnerability to create both winners and losers. Third, high national levels of adaptive capacity mask the barriers and constraints to adaptation, particularly among those who are most vulnerable to climate change. Based on these results, we question complacency in Norway and other European countries regarding climate change impacts and adaptation. We argue that greater attention needs to be placed on the social context of climate change impacts and on the processes shaping vulnerability and adaptation. CR 2000, SNAP SHOT ANAL MARIT *CICERO, CLIM CHANG VULN NORW *EEA, 1996, CLIM CHANG EUR UN *EEA, 2003, 10 EUR ENV AG *MIN ENV, 1991, GREENH EFF IMP MEAS *MIN ENV, 2001, 54 MIN ENV *MIN TRAD IND MIN, 2002, RISK VULN AN SUPPL G *NAT OFF BUILD TEC, 1993, 1992 HURR DAM BUILD *OECD, 2004, EC SURV NORW 2004 EC AAHEIM A, 2004, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V14, P147 AALL C, 2003, 303 W NORW RES I AALL C, 2004, TOURISM RECREATION C AANDAHL G, 2004, UNPUB COSTS EXTREME ANDERSEN A, 2003, TIDSSKRIFT VELFERDSF, V6, P89 ASKILDSEN T, 2004, EXTREME WEATHER EVEN AUNAN K, 2000, P SURVAS WORSHOP WOR BENESTAD RE, 2002, CLIMATE RES, V21, P105 BJORBAEK G, 2000, SNO SKI, V4, P10 BURTON I, 2002, CLIM POLICY, V2, P145 CAVAN G, 2004, UKCIP ADAPTATION WIZ CUTTER SL, 2003, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V93, P1 DICKEN P, 2003, GLBOAL SHIFT RESHAPI DOWNING TE, 2001, UNEP POLICY SERIES EIKENAES O, 2000, HYDRA END PROJECT RE FEENSTRA JF, 1998, HDB METHODS CLIMATE FISCHER G, 2001, GLOBAL AGROECOLOGICA GAASLAND I, 2004, CAN WARMER CLIMATE S GJONNES K, 1998, ROLE FREE MARKET INT, P13 HAGLEROD A, 1990, CONSEQUENCES INCREAS HANSSENBAUER I, 2003, CLIMATE RES, V25, P15 HESSEN DO, 1993, IMPACTS CLIMATE CHAN, P84 HULME M, 1999, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHA S, V9, S3 HULME M, 1999, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHA S, V9, S3 HYLME M, 2002, CLIMATE CHANGE SCENA IVERSEN T, 2003, CICERONE, V51, P20 JERVELL AM, 2003, 200319 NORW AGR EC R JONES R, 2003, OECD WORKSH BEN CLIM JONES RN, 2003, ADAPTATION POLICY FR KOENIG U, 1997, J SUSTAINABLE TOURIS, V5, P46 KUNDZEWICZ ZW, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 LEGENDRE L, 2002, ECOL RES, V17, P143 LISO KR, 2003, BUILD RES INF, V31, P200 LUNDEKVAM HE, 2003, ENVIRON SCI POLICY, V6, P57 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 MITCHELL JFB, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, P695 NAESS LO, 2005, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V15, P125 NESTEN NK, 2001, OVERVIEW NORWEGIAN A OBRIEN KL, 2004, CLIMATE VULNERABILIT OBRIEN KL, 2004, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V64, P193 OBRIEN KL, 2000, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V10, P221 OBRIEN KL, 2003, PLAN TIDSKRIFT SAMFU, V5, P12 OTTERSEN G, 2001, LIMNOL OCEANOGR, V46, P1774 OYGARDEN L, 2003, CATENA, V50, P217 PARRY ML, 2000, ASSESSMENT POTENTIAL REIERTSEN I, 2002, C CLIM IMP AD 25 NOV SCHAR C, 2004, NATURE, V427, P332 SCHROTER D, 2004, GLOBAL CHANGE VULNER TEIGLAND J, 2002, SOCIO EC IMPACTS EXT TEIGLAND J, 2002, WEATHER CLIMATE AFFE TEIGLAND J, 2003, CLIMATE CHANGE NORWE TORVANGER AM, 2003, CLIMATE C HANGE IMPA TURNE RBL, 2003, P NAT AC SCI US AM, P8074 VOIGT T, 2004, CLIMATE CHANGE IMPAC WATTS M, 1997, GLOBALISING FOOD AGR WILLOWS R, 2003, CLIMATE ADAPTATION R YOHE GW, 2002, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V12, P25 NR 66 TC 0 J9 AMBIO BP 50 EP 56 PY 2006 PD MAR VL 35 IS 2 GA 035WM UT ISI:000237032400002 ER PT J AU YARNAL, B TI SOCIOECONOMIC RESTRUCTURING AND VULNERABILITY TO ENVIRONMENTAL HAZARDS IN BULGARIA SO DISASTERS LA English DT Article RP YARNAL, B, PENN STATE UNIV,DEPT GEOG,302 WALKER BLDG,UNIV PK,PA 16802. AB The restructuring of Bulgaria's social, economic and political system includes a change in the way it handles disaster preparation and response. During the Cold War, the entire country drilled regularly in civil defense, which was under the control of the army. A recent decree and pending legislation transfers civil defense from the military to the Council of Ministers, which has developed a national plan for defense against environmental hazards, This research shows that the transformation from command to market economy, plus the country's severe economic crisis, is degrading existing civil defense structures, preventing the implementation of the proposed new organization and increasing the population's vulnerability to hazards. Case studies of a small city, a petrochemical complex, coastal-zone hazards management, earthquake hazards regulation and the Kozloduy nuclear facility demonstrate Bulgaria's increasing vulnerability to environmental hazards. CR 1993, HOURS BBN, V3, P5 BEGG R, UNPUB FREE CLEAN ENV BURTON I, 1978, ENV HAZARD, V1, P1 DOWNING TE, 1991, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V1, P365 FRIEDBERG J, UNPUB FREE CLEAN ENV KOULOV B, UNPUB FREE CLEAN ENV LIVERMAN DM, 1993, RISK ASSESSMENT GLOB MIKHOVA D, 1991, DEC IMP POL EC RESTR MORREN GEB, 1991, INTERPRETATIONS CALA, P284 PASKALEVA K, UNPUB FREE CLEAN ENV PAVLINEK P, UNPUB FREE CLEAN ENV SAYER A, 1985, POLITICS METHOD CONT, P147 SCHOENBERGER E, 1991, PROF GEOGR, V43, P180 SHAPIRA P, 1991, COMMUNICATION 0616 SMITH K, 1992, ENV HAZARDS ASSESSIN TIMMERMAN P, 1981, ENV MONOGRAPH, V1, P1 WALKER GP, 1991, LAND USE POLICY JUL, P227 YARNAL B, UNPUB FREE CLEAN ENV YARNAL B, 1992, UNPUB EFFECT EC POLI, V2 YARNAL B, 1994, IN PRESS GLOBAL ENV YARNAL B, 1994, LAND USE POLICY, V11, P67 NR 21 TC 5 J9 DISASTERS BP 95 EP 106 PY 1994 PD JUN VL 18 IS 2 GA NP448 UT ISI:A1994NP44800001 ER PT J AU Pachauri, RK TI Climate change and its implications for development: The role of IPCC assessments SO IDS BULLETIN-INSTITUTE OF DEVELOPMENT STUDIES LA English DT Article AB The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Reports show that climate change is likely to have significant developmental consequences for all, but developing countries and the poor persons within all countries will be disproportionately affected, including impacts on agriculture, health and water. As the largest source of employment in most developing countries, impacts on agriculture and on food security are especially critical. Altered precipitation rates will also result in more frequent droughts and floods in large parts of Asia and could impact adversely on the achievements of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) on water and sanitation, which are linked to other MDGs. Vulnerability of agriculture and options for adaptation have only recently been studied in India in detail. These indicate serious problems for India, as there are limited opportunities for changes in crops and other factors, such as unfavourable global trading regimes, limit adaptive capacity. CR *INT PAN CLIM CHAN, 2001, 3 ASS REP *IPCC, 1996, CLIM CHAN IPCC 1990 *IPCC, 1996, SCI CLIM CHANG CONTR *IPCC, 2001, SYNTH REP 3 ASS CLIM *TERI, 2003, COP GLOB CHANG VULN NR 5 TC 0 J9 IDS BULL-INST DEVELOP STUD BP 11 EP + PY 2004 PD JUL VL 35 IS 3 GA 844HK UT ISI:000223148700002 ER PT J AU Aaheim, A Schjolden, A TI An approach to utilise climate change impacts studies in national assessments SO GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS LA English DT Article C1 Univ Oslo, CICERO, N-0318 Oslo, Norway. RP Aaheim, A, Univ Oslo, CICERO, POB 1129 Blindern, N-0318 Oslo, Norway. AB This paper proposes methods to assess the socioeconomic impacts of climate change within the framework of national accounting and macroeconomic models. The methods are illustrated with examples. The framework of national accounting serves several important purposes in the assessment of the national impacts of climate change. First, an accounting system requires that assumptions and output from independent sector studies of impacts be standardised and made comparable. Second, it serves as a checkpoint for the availability and quality of information about impacts of climate change. Third, it provides a starting point for more extensive macroeconomic analysis of impacts. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 *IPCC, 2001, CLIM CHANG 2001 SCI *NILF, 1990, KONS JORDBR OKT KLIM AAHEIM HA, 1994, REPORTS STAT NORWAY, V9414 AAHEIM HA, 2003, SOSIOOKONOMISKE VIRK, P5 ASHEIM GB, 1994, SCAND J ECON, V96, P257 BARTELMAS P, 1994, WORKING PAPER SERIES, V1 BARTSCH U, 2000, FOSSIL FUELS CHANGIN BREKKE KA, 1994, SCAND J ECON, V96, P241 FANKHAUSER S, 1995, VALUING CLIMATE CHAN FORLAND EJ, 1999, FRAMTIDIG KLIMAUTVIK LEONTIEF W, 1941, STRUCTURE AM EC 1919 LEONTIEF W, 1987, NEW PALGRAVE DICT EC, V2 NORDHAUS WD, 1993, RESOUR ENERGY ECON, V15, P27 OBRIEN KL, 2003, UNPUB VULNERABLE RES PITTOCK AB, 2001, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V53, P393 SEN AK, 1970, COLLECTIVE CHOICE SO SKANBERG K, 2001, 76 NAT I EC RES KONJ TOL RSJ, 1995, ENVIRON RESOUR ECON, V5, P353 TOL RSJ, 2001, ENVIRON RESOUR ECON, V21, P47 WEITZMAN ML, 1976, Q J ECON, V90, P156 NR 21 TC 0 J9 GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANGE BP 147 EP 160 PY 2004 PD JUL VL 14 IS 2 GA 830FP UT ISI:000222107400005 ER PT J AU Tol, RSJ Langen, A TI A concise history of Dutch river floods SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 Free Univ Amsterdam, Inst Environm Studies, NL-1081 HV Amsterdam, Netherlands. RP Tol, RSJ, Free Univ Amsterdam, Inst Environm Studies, De Boelelaan 1115, NL-1081 HV Amsterdam, Netherlands. AB Based on a brief account of 1,000 years of river floods and flood management in the Dutch Rhine delta, it is argued that vulnerability to river floods depends on the complex interaction of economics, institutions, politics and, to a limited extent, climate. Response functions and thresholds for climate change impacts should take this complexity into account rather than assuming society to be constant or evolving in a straightforward manner. CR DOWNING TE, 1996, R9604 VRIJ U I ENV S GOTTSCHALK MKE, 1971, SEA SURGES RIVER FLO LANGEN A, 1995, W9516 VRIJ U I ENV S LANGEN A, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE EXTRE, P129 PENNINGROWSELL E, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE EXTRE, P97 STOL H, 1993, RISING WATER FALLING VANDERGRIJP N, 1998, CASE STUDY INT FRAME VANDEVEN GP, 1993, LIVEABLE LOWLAND HIS NR 8 TC 1 J9 CLIMATIC CHANGE BP 357 EP 369 PY 2000 PD AUG VL 46 IS 3 GA 352XG UT ISI:000089244200009 ER PT J AU Grothmann, T Patt, A TI Adaptive capacity and human cognition: The process of individual adaptation to climate change SO GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS LA English DT Review C1 Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res, Fept Global Change & Social Syst, D-14412 Potsdam, Germany. Boston Univ, Dept Geog, Boston, MA 02215 USA. RP Grothmann, T, Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res, Fept Global Change & Social Syst, POB 60 12 03, D-14412 Potsdam, Germany. AB Adaptation has emerged as an important area of research and assessment among climate change scientists. Most scholarly work has identified resource constraints as being the most significant determinants of adaptation. However, empirical research on adaptation has so far mostly not addressed the importance of measurable and alterable psychological factors in determining adaptation. Drawing from the literature in psychology and behavioural economics, we develop a socio-cognitive Model of Private Proactive Adaptation to Climate Change (MPPACC). MPPACC separates out the psychological steps to taking action in response to perception, and allows one to see where the most important bottlenecks occur-including risk perception and perceived adaptive capacity, a factor largely neglected in previous climate change research. We then examine two case studies-one from urban Germany and one from rural Zimbabwe-to explore the validity of MPPACC to explaining adaptation. In the German study, we find that MPPACC provides better statistical power than traditional socio-economic models. In the Zimbabwean case study, we find a qualitative match between MPPACC and adaptive behaviour. Finally, we discuss the important implications of our findings both on vulnerability and adaptation assessments, and on efforts to promote adaptation through outside intervention. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 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1980, J PERS SOC PSYCHOL, V39, P806 WEINSTEIN ND, 1983, HEALTH PSYCHOL, V2, P11 WEINSTEIN ND, 1987, J BEHAV MED, V10, P481 WEINSTEIN ND, 1989, PSYCHOL BULL, V105, P31 WILBANKS TJ, 2003, CLIM POLICY, S147 WORTMAN C, 1976, NEW DIRECTIONS ATTRI, V1, P19 YOHE GW, 1996, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V32, P387 YOHE GW, 2002, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V12, P25 ZIERVOGEL G, 2004, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V65, P73 ZIERVOGEL G, 2004, GEOGR J 1, V170, P6 NR 128 TC 3 J9 GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANGE BP 199 EP 213 PY 2005 PD OCT VL 15 IS 3 GA 960JC UT ISI:000231585500004 ER PT J AU Butt, TA McCarl, BA Angerer, J Dyke, PT Stuth, JW TI The economic and food security implications of climate change in Mali SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 Texas A&M Univ, Dept Agr Econ, College Stn, TX 77843 USA. Texas A&M Univ, Dept Rangeland Ecol & Management, College Stn, TX 77843 USA. Texas A&M Univ, Blackland Res & Extens Ctr, Temple, TX 76502 USA. RP Butt, TA, Texas A&M Univ, Dept Agr Econ, College Stn, TX 77843 USA. AB The study focuses on economic and food security implications of projected climate change on Malian agriculture sector. Climate change projections made by two global circulation models are considered. The analysis focuses on the effects on crops, forages, and livestock and the resultant effects on sectoral economics and risk of hunger in Mali. Results show that under climate change, crop yield changes are in the range of minus 17% to plus 6% at national level. Simultaneously, forage yields fall by 5 to 36% and livestock animal weights are reduced by 14 to 16%. The resultant economic losses range between 70 to $142 million, with producers gaining, but consumers losing. 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RP Dawdy, SL, Univ Chicago, Dept Anthropol, Chicago, IL 60637 USA. AB Using observations from recent participation in post-Katrina recovery efforts in New Orleans, I make the case in this article that taphonomic processes such as trash removal, deposition, earthmoving, and demolition are a primary medium through which individuals and communities reconstitute themselves following a disaster. Taphonomy, or the formation of the archaeological record, does not simply reflect social processes, it is a social process. The taphonomic processes currently underway through the clean-up and rebuilding efforts in New Orleans dramatically illustrate this point. I recommend that both ethnographers and archaeologists undertake a fine-grained ethnoarchaeology of disaster. I engage with the literature of disaster to illustrate the potentials I see for this type of study, particularly as it pertains to the culture-nature nexus, perceptions of vulnerability, and the revelatory power of disasters. CR *SOC SCI RES COUNC, 2005, UND KATR PERSP SOC S ALLISON P, 2002, NATURAL DISASTERS CA, P107 BAWDEN G, 2000, ENV DISASTER ARCHAEO BERRY J, 2005, BOSTON GLOBE 1207, A21 BLAIKIE PM, 1994, RISK NATURAL HAZARDS, V1, P1 BUTTON GV, 2002, CATASTROPHE CULTURE, P143 BUTZER KW, 1976, EARLY HYDRAULIC CIVI BYRNE D, 1997, PUBLIC HIST REV, V6, P17 BYRNE D, 1998, SAD BUT LOVING MEMOR CHAPDELAINE C, 2000, ENV DISASTER ARCHAEO, P121 COMAROFF JL, 1992, ETHNOGRAPHY HIST IMA CORDELL L, 2000, ENV DISASTER ARCHAEO, P179 CORLEY C, 2006, NPR 0530 CRITTENDEN KS, 2002, NATURAL DISASTERS CA, P43 DAVIES H, 2002, NATURAL DISASTERS CU, P28 DAWDY BL, 2000, HIST ARCHAEOL, V34, P107 DAWDY SL, 1998, J LEGACY 169R51 REVI DENYS C, 2002, ARCHAEOMETRY 3, V44, P469 DEPARLE J, 2005, NY TIMES 0904, P4 DEWAN S, 2006, NY TIMES 0411, A1 DRIESSEN J, 2002, NATURAL DISASTERS CU, P250 EATON L, 2006, NY TIMES 0508, A1 FOUCAULT M, 1972, ARCHAEOLOGY KNOWLEDG GIBBS M, 2002, NATURAL DIS CATASTRO, P66 GONZALEZ D, 2005, NY TIMES 0902, A1 HAMILTON B, 2005, TIMES PICAYUNE 1116, A1 HARVEY D, 1996, JUSTICE NATURE GEOGR HOFFMAN S, 2002, CATASTROPHE CULTURE, P113 KOLATA AL, 2000, ENV DISASTER ARCHAEO, P163 KORNBACHER KD, 2002, NATURAL DISASTER CUL, P204 LOW SM, 2004, AM ETHNOL, V31, P326 LOWE DJ, 2002, NATURAL DISASTERS CU, P126 MANNING SW, 2002, NATURAL DISASTERS CU, P264 MEBAR Y, 2004, J ARCHAEOL SCI, V31, P1311 MIGNON MR, 1993, DICT CONCEPTS ARCHAE MORRISON KD, 2000, ENV DISASTER ARCHAEO, P21 MORRISON KD, 2006, NATURE, V440, P752 MOSELEY M, 2000, ANTHR PAPERS, V7, P219 MOSELEY ME, 1981, BLOTIC CRISES ECOLOG, P231 MOSELEY ME, 1997, REV ARCHAEOLOGY, V18, P19 MOSELEY ME, 2002, CATASTROPHE CULTURE, P187 OLIVERSMITH A, 2002, CATASTROPHE CULTURE, P23 OLIVERSMITH A, 2002, CATASTROPHE CULTURE, P3 PARSLOW CC, 1995, REDISCOVERING ANTIQU PRICE R, 1983, 1 TIME HIST VISION A PUMPELLY R, 1908, EXPLORATIONS TURKEST REYCRAFT RM, 2000, ENV DISASTER ARCHAEO, P1 REYCRAFT RM, 2000, ENV DISASTER ARCHAEO, P99 RUNNELS C, 2000, ENV DISASTER ARCHAEO, P11 RUSSELL G, 2005, TIMES PICAYUNE 1121, A1 SAHLINS MD, 1985, ISLANDS HIST SAHLINS MD, 2004, APOLOGIES THUCYDIDES SALTONSTALL P, 2002, NATURAL DISASTERS CU, P172 SANTLEY RS, 2000, ANTHR PAPERS, V7, P143 SCHIFFER MB, 1987, FORMATION PROCESSES SHEETS PD, 1979, VOLCANIC ACTIVITY HU SHIMOYAMA S, 2002, NATURAL DISASTERS CA, P326 STURKEN M, 2004, AM ETHNOL, V31, P311 TARLOW S, 2000, CURR ANTHROPOL, V41, P713 TORRENCE R, 2002, NATURAL DISASTERS CU TORRENCE R, 2002, NATURAL DISASTERS CU, P1 TROUILLOT MR, 1995, SILENCING PAST POWER VALE LJ, 2005, BOSTON GLOBE 0925, D12 WATERS MR, 1996, AM ANTIQUITY, V61, P483 WEISS H, 2000, ENGAGING UNDERSTAND, P75 WILCHESCHAUX G, 1989, DESASTRES ECOLOGISMO WILLIAMS B, 2006, NBC NIGHTLY NEW 0428 WINGERSON L, 2006, ARCHAEOLOGY, V59, P30 ZARINS J, 2000, ENV DISASTER ARCHAEO, P35 NR 69 TC 0 J9 AMER ANTHROPOL BP 719 EP 730 PY 2006 PD DEC VL 108 IS 4 GA 120ZJ UT ISI:000243125400006 ER PT J AU HISCOCK, KM LOVETT, AA BRAINERD, JS PARFITT, JP TI GROUNDWATER VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT - 2 CASE-STUDIES USING GIS METHODOLOGY SO QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ENGINEERING GEOLOGY LA English DT Article RP HISCOCK, KM, UNIV E ANGLIA,SCH ENVIRONM SCI,NORWICH NR4 7TJ,NORFOLK,ENGLAND. AB In the first case study presented here, a geographic information system (GIS) is used to create a groundwater vulnerability map of the Midlands and northwest of England by overlaying regional information on the solid geology, Quaternary drift cover and soil cover. The map reveals that areas of extreme and high groundwater vulnerability occur in the vicinities of Birmingham, Liverpool and Manchester. In the second study, a GIS is used to create a groundwater vulnerability map for southeast England and to combine this information with results from a routing model for the transport of hazardous aqueous waste within the region. The routing model utilizes an accident-minimizing scenario and expresses the potential pollution threat to groundwater as the number of tanker-kilometres directed over each groundwater vulnerability class. It is concluded that a GIS methodology is very suitable for groundwater vulnerability mapping, providing an ability to integrate multiple layers of information and to derive additional information, for example on pollution risks. A GIS also allows flexibility in the revision of maps should existing information become obsolete, or revision of the groundwater vulnerability classification scheme be necessary. CR 1980, OFFICIAL J EUROPEAN, L20 1980, OFFICIAL J EUROPEAN, L229 1988, ANN ABSTRACT GREATER 1991, OFFICIAL J EUROPEAN, L375 1992, POLICY PRACTICE PROT 1992, TRANSPORT STATISTICS 1992, UK ENV ADAMS B, 1992, J INST WATER ENV MAN, V6, P312 ALEXANDER J, 1985, 18TH C INT ASS HYDR, P54 ALLER L, 1987, NWWA EPA SERIES ALLSOP RE, 1986, DOERW86020 DEP ENV R BAKER CP, 1993, J WATER RES PL-ASCE, V119, P275 BARKAN CPL, 1992, 1992 SOC RISK AN ANN BERRY JK, 1993, ENV MODELING GIS, P58 DOWNING RA, 1979, J HYDROL, V40, P67 ELKADI AI, 1994, GROUND WATER, V32, P617 EVANS BM, 1990, J SOIL WATER CONSERV, V45, P242 FEDRA K, 1989, INT ASS HYDROLOGICAL, V188, P305 FLAVIN RJ, 1983, Q J ENG GEOL, V16, P65 FOSTER SSD, 1988, GROUNDWATER POLLUTIO FURST J, 1992, IFIP TRANS A, V13, P676 GOODCHILD MF, 1993, ENV MODELING GIS, P8 HALLIDAY SL, 1991, WATER RESOUR BULL, V27, P237 HARPER CR, 1992, ENVIRON MANAGE, V16, P777 HARRIS J, 1993, ENV MODELING GIS, P168 IRVING WM, 1982, Q J ENG GEOL, V15, P47 LOUCKS DP, 1987, REV GEOPHYS, V25, P107 MATHER JD, 1973, Q J ENG GEOL, V6, P141 MATTHES G, 1985, THEORETICAL BACKGROU MORGANJONES M, 1981, Q J ENG GEOL, V14, P25 PADGETT DA, 1992, GEO INFO SYSTEMS FEB, P46 PALMER RC, 1987, GROUNDWATER VULNERAB PARFITT JP, 1990, THESIS U E ANGLIA PIPES S, 1994, 1994 P GIS RES UK C, P315 PRICE M, 1992, P I CIVIL ENG-WATER, V96, P9 RAGG JM, 1984, REGIONAL B SOIL SURV, V12 RIFAI HS, 1993, GROUND WATER, V31, P480 ROBINS N, 1994, HYDROGEOLOGIE, V3, P35 SMITH DB, 1976, WATER RESOUR RES, V12, P392 TURNER AK, 1989, 3 DIMENSIONAL APPLIC, P115 TURNER AK, 1992, 3 DIMENSIONAL MODELI, P327 VONBRAUN M, 1988, HAZARDOUS WASTE DETE, P1151 VONBRAUN M, 1993, ENV MODELING GIS, P339 NR 43 TC 10 J9 QUART J ENG GEOL BP 179 EP 194 PY 1995 PD MAY VL 28 GA RK397 UT ISI:A1995RK39700008 ER PT J AU Alexandrov, VA TI Vulnerability of agronomic systems in Bulgaria SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Article RP Alexandrov, VA, BULGARIAN ACAD SCI,NATL INST METEOROL & HYDROL,66 TZARIGRADSKO SHAUSSEE,BU-1784 SOFIA,BULGARIA. AB In recent years the problem of climate and its variations under the influence of natural processes and factors of anthropogenetic origin has come to the forefront of scientific and practical problems on a world-wide scale. Climate change vulnerability assessments of agronomic systems in Bulgaria have been initiated. In this paper preliminary results of this study are presented. Different climate change scenarios were defined. Global circulation model (GCM) scenarios and incremental scenarios for Bulgaria were created and applied. The influence of climate change on potential crop growing season above a base of 5 degrees and 10 degrees C in Bulgaria was investigated. Increases in temperature can be expected to lengthen the potential growing season, resulting in a shift of thermal limits of agriculture in Bulgaria. The Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) Version 2.1 was used to assess the influence of climate change on grain yield of maize and winter wheat. Maize and winter wheat yields decreased with increasing temperatures and decreasing precipitation. CR *INT BENCHM SIT NE, 1990, 1 IBSNAT, P55 *INT BENCHM SIT NE, 1993, IBSNAT DEC, P178 *INT PAN CLIM CHAN, 1990, POT IMP CLIM CHANG A, P51 ALEXANDROV VA, 1993, BULGARIAN J METEOROL, V4, P132 ALEXANDROV VA, 1993, BULGARIAN J METEOROL, V4, P164 ALEXANDROV VA, 1993, P INT S PREC EV SLOV, V2, P99 ALEXANDROV VA, 1995, THESIS, P189 BENIOFF R, 1996, VULNERABILITY ADAPTA GEORGIEV G, 1993, BULGARIAN J METEOROL, V4, P205 GODWIN D, 1990, USERS GUIDE CERES WH, P90 GULINOVA N, 1974, METHODS AGR CLIMATOL, P260 KOLEVA E, 1993, P INT S PREC EV SLOV, V2, P91 PARRY ML, 1990, CLIMATE DEV CLIMATIC, P152 RITCHIE J, 1990, USERS GUIDE CERES MA, P90 ROSENZWEIG C, 1993, AGR DIMENSIONS GLOBA, P87 NR 15 TC 6 J9 CLIMATIC CHANGE BP 135 EP 149 PY 1997 PD MAY-JUN VL 36 IS 1-2 GA XH635 UT ISI:A1997XH63500010 ER PT J AU Amato, AD Ruth, M Kirshen, PH Horwitz, J TI Regional energy demand responses to climate change: Methodology and application to the Commonwealth of Massachusetts SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 Univ Maryland, Environm Policy Program, Sch Publ Policy, College Pk, MD 20742 USA. Tufts Univ, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Medford, MA 02155 USA. Binary Syst Software, Newton, MA 02465 USA. RP Amato, AD, Univ Maryland, Environm Policy Program, Sch Publ Policy, 3139 Munching Hall, College Pk, MD 20742 USA. AB Climate is a major determinant of energy demand. Changes in climate may alter energy demand as well as energy demand patterns. This study investigates the implications of climate change for energy demand under the hypothesis that impacts are scale dependent due to region-specific climatic variables, infrastructure, socioeconomic, and energy use profiles. In this analysis we explore regional energy demand responses to climate change by assessing temperature-sensitive energy demand in the Commonwealth of Massachusetts. The study employs a two-step estimation and modeling procedure. The first step evaluates the historic temperature sensitivity of residential and commercial demand for electricity and heating fuels, using a degree-day methodology. We find that when controlling for socioeconomic factors, degree-day variables have significant explanatory power in describing historic changes in residential and commercial energy demands. In the second step, we assess potential future energy demand responses to scenarios of climate change. Model results are based on alternative climate scenarios that were specifically derived for the region on the basis of local climatological data, coupled with regional information from available global climate models. We find notable changes with respect to overall energy consumption by, and energy mix of the residential and commercial sectors in the region. On the basis of our findings, we identify several methodological issues relevant to the development of climate change impact assessments of energy demand. CR *BLS, 2003, CONS PRIC IND EL *BLS, 2003, CONS PRIC IND FUELS *EIA, EL POW MONTHL *EIA, NAT GAS MONTHL *EIA, PETROLEUM MARKETING *EIA, 1995, MEAS EN EFF US EC BE *EIA, 1999, LOOK RES EN CONS 199 *EIA, 2001, ANN EN REV 2000 *EIA, 2001, STAT EN DAT REP 1999 WATSON RT, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, V1, P1 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 *NEW ENGL REG ASS, 2001, PREP CHANG CLIM POT *NOAA, 2003, SUNR SUNS CALC *UNEP, 1998, HDB METH CLIM CHANG *US BUR EC AN, 2002, TOT FULL TIM PART TI *US CENS BUR, 2002, STAT POP EST BADRI MA, 1992, ENERGY, V17, P725 BARRON E, 2002, CLIMATE CHANGE IMPAC BELZER DB, 1996, ENERG SOURCE, V18, P177 BOUSTEAD I, 1994, RESOUR CONSERV RECY, V12, P121 CAMILLERI M, 2001, BUILD RES INF, V29, P440 CARTALIS C, 2001, ENERG CONVERS MANAGE, V42, P1647 COLOMBO AF, 1999, J CLIMATE 2, V12, P2490 DEDEAR R, 2001, INT J BIOMETEOROL, V45, P100 DOWNTON MW, 1988, J APPL METEOROL, V27, P84 ELKHAFIF MAT, 1996, ENERG ECON, V18, P221 GRECO S, 1994, 67 IPCC WMO UNEP GRUBLER A, 1990, RISE FALL INFRASTRUC HARMEL RD, 2002, J APPL METEOROL, V41, P744 JAGER J, 1983, CLIMATE ENERGY SYSTE LAKSHMANAN TR, 1980, REGIONAL SCI URBAN E, V10, P371 LAM JC, 1998, ENERG CONVERS MANAGE, V39, P623 LECOMTE DM, 1981, J APPL METEOROL, V20, P1415 LEHMAN RL, 1994, J APPL METEOROL, V33, P96 LINDER KP, 1990, POTENTIAL EFFECTS GL MORRIS M, 1999, IMPACT TEMPERATURE T MORRISON W, 1998, IMPACTS CLIMATE CHAN NALL D, 1979, ASHRAE T, V85, P1 PARDO A, 2002, ENERG ECON, V24, P55 PRESSMAN N, 1995, N CITYSCAPE LINKING QUAYLE RG, 1980, J APPL METEOROL, V19, P241 ROSENTHAL DH, 1995, ENERGY J, V16, P41 RUTH M, 2001, WORLD RESOURCES REV, V13, P106 SAILOR DJ, 1997, ENERGY, V22, P987 SAILOR DJ, 1997, WORLD RESOURCE REV, V9, P301 SAILOR DJ, 1998, ENERGY, V23, P91 SAILOR DJ, 2001, ENERGY, V26, P645 SAILOR DJ, 2003, ENERGY, V28, P941 SCOTT MJ, 1994, ENERG SOURCE, V16, P317 SEGAL M, 1992, J APPL METEOROL, V31, P1492 VOGEL RM, 1996, WATER RESOUR RES, V32, P1875 WARREN HE, 1981, J APPL METEOROL, V20, P1431 WILBANKS TJ, 1999, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V43, P601 YAN YY, 1998, ENERGY, V23, P17 NR 54 TC 0 J9 CLIMATIC CHANGE BP 175 EP 201 PY 2005 PD JUL VL 71 IS 1-2 GA 955IJ UT ISI:000231219300007 ER PT J AU Qiao, JH Jeong, D Lawley, M Richard, JPP Abraham, DM Yih, Y TI Allocating security resources to a water supply network SO IIE TRANSACTIONS LA English DT Article C1 Purdue Univ, Sch Ind Engn, W Lafayette, IN 47907 USA. Purdue Univ, Sch Civil Engn, W Lafayette, IN 47907 USA. Oklahoma State Univ, Sch Civil & Environm Engn, Stillwater, OK 74078 USA. RP Lawley, M, Purdue Univ, Sch Ind Engn, W Lafayette, IN 47907 USA. AB This paper develops a method for allocating a security budget to a water supply network so as to maximize the network's resilience to physical attack. The method integrates max-min linear programming, hydraulic simulation, and genetic algorithms for constraint generation. The objective is to find a security allocation that maximizes an attacker's marginal cost of inflicting damage through the destruction of network components. We illustrate the method on two example networks, one large and one small, and investigate its allocation effectiveness and computational characteristics. CR 2002, CPLEX 8 1 USERS MANU 2004, HASTAD METHODS 2004, KYPIPE 2004, MWHSOFT ALBERT R, 2000, NATURE, V406, P378 BALAKRISHNAN A, 2001, ANN OPER RES, V106, P127 BALAKRISHNAN A, 2002, OPER RES, V50, P617 BALL MO, 1989, OPER RES LETT, V8, P73 BEERING PS, 2002, J WATER RES PL-ASCE, V128, P163 BELLMAN R, 1958, Q APPL MATH, V16, P87 BODANSKY Y, 1998, BIN LADEN MAN WHO DE BURNS NB, 2002, URBAN WATER SUPPLY H CHUJO T, 1991, ELECTR COMMUN 1, V74, P1 CLOUQUEUR M, 2002, IEEE J SEL AREA COMM, V20, P810 CORLEY HW, 1982, OPER RES LETT, V1, P157 CORMICAN KJ, 1998, OPER RES, V46, P184 CUNNINGHAM WH, 1985, J ASSOC COMPUT MACH, V32, P549 GHARE PM, 1971, NAV RES LOG, V18, P37 GOLDEN B, 1978, NAV RES LOG, V25, P711 GRIGG NS, 1999, EPA C FUT URB WAT SY GROTSCHEL M, 1995, HDB OPERATIONS RES M, V7 GUSFIELD D, 1983, INFORM PROCESS LETT, V16, P87 HAIMES YY, 1998, J INFRASTRUCT SYST, V4, P164 HOLME P, 2002, PHYS REV E, V65, P56 ISRAELI E, 2002, NETWORKS, V40, P97 JEONG H, 2005, ASCE 2005 INT C COMP JEONG HS, 2006, COMPUT-AIDED CIV INF, V21, P79 MAYS LW, 1999, HYDRAULIC DESIGN HDB MCMASTERS AW, 1970, NAV RES LOG, V17, P261 MENGER K, 1927, FUND MATH, V10, P96 MUNSON BR, 1998, FUNDAMENTALS FLUID M MURRAY R, 2004, WORLD WAT ENV RES C OSTFELD A, 2004, J WATER RES PL-ASCE, V130, P377 PAN F, 2002, NETWORK INTERDICTION, P1 PHILLIPS CA, 1993, P 25 ANN ACM S THEOR, P776 ROSSMAN LA, 2000, EPANET2 USERS MANUAL SAKAUCHI H, 1990, P IEEE GLOB 90 SHARPLY LS, 1959, NETWORK FLOW FUNCTIO STREETER VL, 1998, FLUID MECH VEERASAMY J, 1995, P 3 INT WORKSH MOD A, P370 VEERASAMY J, 1999, J SYST SOFTWARE, V47, P27 WOLLMER RD, 1964, J OPNS SOC AM, V12, P934 WOOD RK, 1993, MATH COMPUT MODEL, V17, P1 NR 43 TC 0 J9 IIE TRANSACTIONS BP 95 EP 109 PY 2007 PD JAN VL 39 IS 1 GA 102EO UT ISI:000241794000009 ER PT J AU Cocklin, C Keen, M TI Urbanization in the Pacific: environmental change, vulnerability and human security SO ENVIRONMENTAL CONSERVATION LA English DT Article C1 Monash Univ, Sch Geog & Environm Sci, Clayton, Vic 3800, Australia. Australian Natl Univ, Dept Geog & Human Ecol, Canberra, ACT 0200, Australia. RP Cocklin, C, Monash Univ, Sch Geog & Environm Sci, POB 11A, Clayton, Vic 3800, Australia. AB The world is in the midst of a substantial urban transition, but the impacts of this on the environment and human societies are not fully understood. Very little attention has been paid to urbanization processes in developing countries with smaller populations, despite the evident problems associated with urbanization. There are both biophysical and social vulnerabilities associated with urbanization in the South Pacific and these vulnerabilities affect human security. The biophysical vulnerabilities include the fragile environments of the island nations, limited land resources, shortages of basic resources, and the risks associated with global warming. The ability to respond to these problems is constrained by social vulnerabilities, notably weak economies, difficulties associated with land ownership, and institutional limitations. There is a need for institutional reform, improved planning, better urban resource management, and greater regional cooperation, if Pacific island nations are to respond effectively to rapid urbanization and global change. 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RP Geisler, C, Cornell Univ, Dept Rural Sociol, Ithaca, NY 14853 USA. AB Human security and environmental security, often reinforcing, can be at odds. One instance arises when greenlining, the creation or expansion of relatively exclusionary protected areas, leads to the mass displacement of local communities and the creation of a new variant of 'environmental refugees'. The present research employs several methods to estimate the magnitude of environmental refugees in Africa and suggests that they number in the millions. Country-specific case studies are offered to lend historical context to these estimates. Environmentally oriented land reform is proposed as a partial mitigation for the social side effects of greenlining, and is briefly described in African and other settings. Copyright (C) 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 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RP Peterson, CJ, Univ Georgia, Dept Bot, 2502 Plant Sci Bldg, Athens, GA 30602 USA. AB Catastrophic winds from tornadoes and downbursts are a major cause of natural disturbance in forests of eastern North America, accounting for thousands of hectares of disturbed area annually. Wind disturbance shows substantial regional variation, decreasing from the mid-west to the east and from the south-east to New England. In terms of the relative importance among these types of storms, more forest damage results from tornadoes in the south-east and mid-west, while downbursts are the most important type of wind disturbance in the Great Lakes area. Downbursts vary widely in size, but large ones can damage thousands of hectares, while tornadoes are much smaller, seldom affecting more than several hundred hectares. Tornadoes cause the most severe wind disturbances. Site characteristics such as physiography, soil moisture, and soil depth; stand characteristics like density and canopy roughness; and tree characteristics such as size, species, rooting depth, and wood strength, are the factors most recognized as influencing damage patterns. The consequences of wind damage to forests, such as change in environmental conditions, density, size structure, species composition, and successional status, occur on both immediate (hours-todays) and long-term (months-to-decades) time scales. Most wind disturbances result in the post-disturbance vegetation being comprised of surviving canopy trees, and varying amounts of sprouts, released understory stems, and new seedlings. Stand size structure is usually reduced, and successional status of a forest is often advanced. Diversity can be either increased or decreased, depending on the measure of abundance used to calculate diversity. Because tornadoes and downbursts are in part products of thermodynamic climatic circumstances, they may be affected by anticipated changes in climatic conditions as the 21st century progresses. However, the current understanding of tornado and downburst formation from supercell storms is very incomplete, and climate-change model predictions sufficiently coarse, that predictions of changes in frequency, size, intensity, or timing of these extreme events must be regarded as highly uncertain. Moreover, retrospective approaches that employ tree demography and dendrochronology require prohibitively large sample sizes to resolve details of the relationship between climate fluctuations and characteristics bf these storms. To improve predictions of changes in the climatology of these storms, we need improved understanding of the genesis of tornadoes and downbursts within thunderstorms, and greater resolution in global climate models. To improve coping strategies,forest scientists can contribute by giving more attention to how various silvicultural actions influence stand and tree vulnerability. Finally, increased focus on the dynamics of forest recovery and regrowth may suggest management actions that can facilitate desired objectives after one of these unpredictable wind disturbances. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. 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RP Redclift, M, Univ London Kings Coll, Dept Geog, London WC2R 2LS, England. AB Examining the concepts of 'security' and 'sustainability', as they are employed in contemporary environmental discourses, the paper argues that, although the importance of the environment has been increasingly acknowledged since the 1970s, there has been a failure to incorporate other discourses surrounding 'nature'. The implications of the 'new genetics', prompted by research into recombinant DNA, suggest that future approaches to sustainability need to be more cognisant of changes in 'our' nature, as well as those of 'external' nature, the environment. This broadening of the compass of 'security' and 'sustainability' discourses would help provide greater insight into human security, from an environmental perspective. CR *BRANDT COMM, 1983, COMM CRIS *GLOB 2000 REP, 1982, REP PRES *IUCN UNEP, 1999, GLOB ENV OUTL *WCED, 1987, OUR COMM FUT *WORLD CONS STRAT, 1983, LIV RES CONS SUST DE *WORLD CONS STRAT, 1991, CAR NAT AGRAWAL A, 1999, NATURE POWER PRODUCT BARNETT J, 2001, MEANING ENV SECURITY BECK U, 1992, RISK SOC NEW MODERNI COCKLIN C, 2002, IN PRESS ENV SECURIT DARIER E, 1999, DISCOURSES ENV FINKLER K, 2000, EXPERIENCING NEW GEN GINSBURG F, 1995, CONCEIVING NEW WORLD GOODMAN DE, 1991, REFASHIONING NATURE JORDANOVA L, 1986, LANGUAGES NATURE LATOUR B, 1993, WE HAVE NEVER BEEN M LUKE TW, 1999, DISCOURSES ENV MCAFEE K, 1999, ENV PLANNING D, V17 MEADOWS DC, 1972, LIMITS GROWTH REDCLIFT MR, 1983, DEV ENV CRISIS REDCLIFT MR, 1987, SUSTAINABLE DEV EXPL REDCLIFT MR, 1996, WASTED COUNTING COST SACHS W, 1993, GLOBAL ECOLOGY NEW A SIMONIS UE, 1989, INT SOC SCI J, V121, P347 VOGLER J, 2000, GLOBAL COMMONS ENV T WATTS MJ, 1996, LIBERATION ECOLOGIES NR 26 TC 1 J9 ENVIRON VALUE BP 289 EP 299 PY 2001 PD AUG VL 10 IS 3 GA 480TP UT ISI:000171479100002 ER PT J AU Bandyopadhyay, S TI Natural environmental hazards and their management: A case study of Sagar Island, India SO SINGAPORE JOURNAL OF TROPICAL GEOGRAPHY LA English DT Article RP Bandyopadhyay, S, VIDYASAGAR UNIV,DEPT GEOG & ENVIRONM MANAGEMENT,MIDNAPORE 721102,W BENGAL,INDIA. AB The reclamation of Sagar island from the Sundarban mangrove wetlands of the western Ganga Brahmaputra delta was initiated in 1811. At present the island is almost wholly settled. The major natural environmental hazards (NEH) that affect the island are tropical cyclones, coastal erosion, tidal ingression and dunal encroachment. Human adjustments to these problems include acceptance, technological control, relocation, regulation and emergency measures. Seven different agencies manage the existing NEH-prevention projects of the island, often with little coordination. Important schemes managed by these agencies include coastal and interior embankments, mangrove plantations, storm refuges, resettlement projects and vegetation wind-breaks. Their efficiency ranges from excellent to very poor. Since a large outlay is inconceivable, the island's hazard prevention projects should mobilise existing resources in a more rational and coordinated manner. The long-term solution to the problems, however, lies in an accelerated socio-economic development of the region. 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RP Simonovic, SP, Univ Western Ontario, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, London, ON N6A 5B9, Canada. AB One of the most significant anticipated consequences of global climate change is the increased frequency of hydrologic extremes. Predictions of climate change impacts on the regime of hydrologic extremes have traditionally been conducted using a top-down approach. The top-down approach involves a high degree of uncertainty associated with global circulation model (GCM) outputs and the choice of downscaling technique. This study attempts to explore an inverse approach to the modelling of hydrologic risk and vulnerability to changing climatic conditions. With a focus targeted at end-users, the proposed approach first identifies critical hydrologic exposures that may lead to local failures of existing water resources systems. A hydrologic model is used to transform inversely the main hydrologic exposures, such as floods and droughts, into corresponding meteorological conditions. The frequency of critical meteorological situations is investigated under present and future climatic scenarios by means of a generic weather generator. The weather generator, linked with GCMs at the last step of the proposed methodology, allows the creation of an ensemble of different scenarios, as well as an easy updating, when new and improved GCM outputs become available. The technique has been applied in Ontario, Canada. The results show significant changes in the frequency of hydro-climatic extremes under future climate scenarios in the study area. Copyright (c) 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 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Univ Arizona, Sch Renewable Nat Resources, Tucson, AZ 85721 USA. RP Eakin, H, Univ Arizona, Dept Geog & Reg Dev, Tucson, AZ 85721 USA. AB For ranchers in the Southwest, unanticipated droughts pose serious management challenges. Social and economic factors combine with the physical impacts of drought to render ranchers more vulnerable to climate variability. Using agricultural census data and interviews with ranchers, we analyze ranchers' responses to drought events in 1996 and 1999. From this analysis we develop an initial assessment of the principal factors contributing to the vulnerability of ranching in southeastern Arizona to climatic variability, and we make some preliminary determinations regarding the potential use of climate information in mitigating this vulnerability. During drought, climatic conditions can combine with poor cattle prices and high feed costs to strain ranchers' resources. The ability to cope with drought is further complicated by changes in environmental policy and pressure from urban growth. In these circumstances, ranchers reported being tempted to sell their private ranch property to development interests. Although our pilot study identified smaller operations as the most vulnerable to climatic variability in the context of policy and economic uncertainty, these operations reported less utility in climate information. The multidimensional nature of vulnerability suggests that climate information will be most useful to ranching operations of all sizes if it is integrated with market, policy and other economic information and if existing information distribution channels are used to reach ranchers. CR *FAO GIEWS, 1996, FOOD OUTL MAY *NAT OC ATM ADM, 2000, NAT CLIM DAT CTR CLI *USDA AR AGR STAT, 1998, ANN STAT B *USDA US DEP COMM, 1996, WEEKL WEATH CROP B *USDA, 1999, GEOGR AR SER 3 BLAIKIE PM, 1994, RISK NATURAL HAZARDS, V1, P1 CHAGNON S, 1988, J CLIMATOL, V1, P757 CHIOTTI QP, 1997, AGR RESTRUCTURING SU, P201 CRANG M, 1997, METHODS HUMAN GEOGRA, P183 CROSS JA, 1994, GEOGR REV, V84, P277 DOWNING TE, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE WORLD, P183 EAKIN H, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P19 EASTERLING WE, 1996, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V80, P1 HARGREAVES D, 1996, FINANCIAL TIMES 0425 HUNTSINGER L, 1996, J RANGE MANAGE, V49, P167 INGLEY K, 1998, ARIZONA REPUBLI 0719 KRAUSE K, 1991, 642 USDA EC RES SERV LIVERMAN DM, 1990, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V80, P49 LIVERMAN DM, 1994, ENV RISKS HAZARDS, P326 MARTIN SC, 1976, J RANGE MANAGE, V29, P346 PARRY ML, 1990, CLIMATE CHANGE WORLD PARRY ML, 1998, CLIMATE IMPACT ADAPT PEEL D, 1996, NAFTA AGR IS EXP WOR ROSENBURG NJ, 1993, INTEGRATED IMPACT AS RUYLE GB, 1991, U ARIZONA PRESERVING, P83 RUYLE GB, 2000, LIVESTOCK MANAGEMENT, P379 SMIT B, 1996, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V33, P7 SMITHERS J, 1997, AGR RESTRUCTURING SU, P167 SONKA ST, 1986, J CLIMATOL, V6, P447 THUROW TL, 1999, J RANGE MANAGE, V52, P418 VALLENTINE JF, 1990, GRAZING MANAGEMENT, P312 NR 31 TC 1 J9 CLIMATE RES BP 271 EP 281 PY 2002 PD JUL 16 VL 21 IS 3 GA 592GH UT ISI:000177928100006 ER PT J AU Conde, C Liverman, DM Flores, M Ferrer, R Araujo, R Betancourt, E Villarreal, G Gay, C TI Vulnerability of rainfed maize crops in Mexico to climate change SO CLIMATE RESEARCH LA English DT Article C1 Univ Nacl Autonoma Mexico, Ctr Ciencias Atmosfera, Mexico City 04510, DF, Mexico. Univ Arizona, Latin Amer Area Ctr, Tucson, AZ 85721 USA. Inst Nacl Ecol, Unidad Cooperac & Convenios Int, Mexico City 01040, DF, Mexico. RP Conde, C, Univ Nacl Autonoma Mexico, Ctr Ciencias Atmosfera, Ciudad Univ,Circuito Exterior, Mexico City 04510, DF, Mexico. AB The impacts of a potential climate change on rainfed maize crops in Mexico are analyzed. For that purpose, baseline scenarios based on current climate conditions and their relation with maize crop development were created. Climate change scenarios were further developed and the crop vulnerability under each scenario was assessed. Two methods were used to quantify vulnerability. In the first place, maps describing the suitability for crop production according to climate conditions were produced. The differences between the baseline and the climate change scenarios allowed for estimating the area of the country likely to be positively or negatively affected. Secondly, the CERES-Maize model was applied to estimate rainfed maize crop yields at 7 sites in Mexico under the baseline and climate change scenarios. Adaptive measures were proposed and their feasibility was assessed on the basis of a simple cost-benefit analysis. CR *INEGI, 1994, EST UN MEX RES DEF 7 CONDE C, 1995, US COUNTRY STUDIES P, P101 MAGANA V, 1994, US COUNTRY STUDIES P, P45 ROSENZWEIG C, 1990, HDB INT CLIMATE CHAN NR 4 TC 4 J9 CLIMATE RES BP 17 EP 23 PY 1997 PD DEC 29 VL 9 IS 1-2 GA ZD200 UT ISI:000072661400004 ER PT J AU Klein, RJT Nicholls, RJ TI Assessment of coastal vulnerability to climate change SO AMBIO LA English DT Article C1 Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res, D-14412 Potsdam, Germany. Middlesex Univ, Sch Geog & Environm Management, Enfield EN3 4SF, Middx, England. RP Klein, RJT, Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res, POB 601203, D-14412 Potsdam, Germany. AB The UNEP Handbook on Methods for Climate Change Impact Assessment and Adaptation Strategies provides an elaboration of the IPCC Technical Guidelines for Assessing Climate Change Impacts and Adaptations. This paper presents the concepts and ideas that underpin the chapter Coastal Zones of the UNEP Handbook. Particular emphasis is given to the conceptual framework, which is centered around the concept of vulnerability. Further, the IPCC Common Methodology for Assessing Coastal Vulnerability to Sea-Level Rise is evaluated and compared with the Technical Guidelines. One notable difference between the 2 approaches concerns the use of scenarios. In the Common Methodology scenarios are prescribed, while the Technical Guidelines allow users maximum freedom in selecting and developing scenarios. Finally, the paper discusses 3 levels of increasingly complex assessment in coastal zones. As more experience is acquired, coastal databases improve and better analytical tools and techniques are developed, more comprehensive and integrated assessments will become feasible. CR 1994, WORLD COAST C NOORDW *COAST RES I MIN T, 1993, VULN ASS ACC SEA LEV *IPCC CZMS, 1992, GLOB CLIM CHANG RIS BEGON M, 1996, ECOLOGY INDIVIDUALS BIJLSMA L, 1996, IMPACTS ADAPTATIONS, P289 CARTER TR, 1994, TECHNICAL GUIDELINES CICINSAIN B, 1993, OCEAN COAST MANAGE, V21, P11 CICINSAIN B, 1997, INT WORKSH PLANN CLI, V1 FEENSTRA JF, 1998, HDB METHODS CLIMATE GORNITZ VM, 1994, J COAST RES SPECIAL, V12, P327 HANDMER JW, 1996, IND ENV CRISIS Q, V9, P482 HOUGHTON JT, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995 KAY RC, 1993, VULNERABILITY ASSESS, P213 KLEIN RJT, 1998, HDB METHODS CLIMATE LEATHERMAN SP, 1996, VULNERABILITY ADAPTA MCLEAN RF, 1993, VULNERABILITY ASSESS MILLIMAN JD, 1989, AMBIO, V18, P340 NICHOLLS RJ, 1995, GEOJOURNAL, V37, P369 NICHOLLS RJ, 1995, J COASTAL RES, V14, P26 PEERBOLTE EB, 1991, IMPACT SEA LEVEL RIS SMITH K, 1992, ENV HAZARDS ASSESSIN TIMMERMAN P, 1981, ENV MONOGRAPH, V1, P1 TOL RSJ, 1996, OCEAN COAST MANAGE, V32, P39 TSYBAN A, 1990, CLIMATE CHANGE IPCC TURNER RK, 1996, REV POTENTIAL EFFECT, P211 WARRICK RA, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, P359 WARRICK RA, 1996, IMPLICATIONS CLIMATE WIGLEY TML, 1995, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V22, P45 ZEIDLER RB, 1997, P 25 INT C COAST ENG, P4364 NR 29 TC 18 J9 AMBIO BP 182 EP 187 PY 1999 PD MAR VL 28 IS 2 GA 194ER UT ISI:000080179600014 ER PT J AU APPENDINI, K LIVERMAN, DM TI AGRICULTURAL POLICY, CLIMATE-CHANGE AND FOOD SECURITY IN MEXICO SO FOOD POLICY LA English DT Article C1 PENN STATE UNIV,DEPT GEOG,UNIV PK,PA 16802. RP APPENDINI, K, COLEGIO MEXICO,CTR ESTUDIOS ECON,CAMINO AL AJUSCO 20,MEXICO CITY D1000,MEXICO. AB This paper describes how variations in agricultural policy and climatic conditions have influenced maize production and food security in 20th-century Mexico. We describe the Mexican food system today and how economic policy has influenced food output in efforts to attain food security based on the goal of national self-sufficiency. We examine the impact of climate variability on agricultural production; the ways in which agricultural policy has interacted with climate to change vulnerability to environmental and social change and the implications of global warming for the future of Mexican agriculture. Finally, we discuss the implications of the changing economic environment as Mexico has opened its economy - for example, through the North American Free Trade Agreement. Our goal is to provide a context for thinking about the implications of two types of global change for Mexico - the internationalization of economies and the widespread transformation of the environment. CR *I NAC EST GEOGR, 1991, SECT AL MEX *MEXICO SECR AGR R, 1993, EST APPENDINI K, 1992, MILPA TORTIBONOS RES AUSTIN JE, 1987, FOOD POLICY MEXICO S BORZA K, 1993, APR ASS AM GEOGR ANN CALVA JL, 1988, CRISIS AGRICOLA ALIM DILLEY M, 1993, THESIS PENN STATE U DOVRING F, 1970, LAND ECON, V46, P264 ECKSTEIN S, 1966, EJIDO COLECTIVO MEXI FLORESCANO E, 1969, MEXICO DF EDICIONES HEWITT AC, 1976, MODERNIZING MEXICAN HEWITT CD, 1992, REESTRUCTURACION EC LIVERMAN DM, 1992, REGIONS GLOBAL WARMI, P44 LIVERMAN DM, 1990, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V80, P49 LIVERMAN DM, 1991, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V1, P351 LIVERMAN DM, 1992, EC ISSUES GLOBAL CLI, P332 LIVERMAN DM, 1993, UNPUB ENV CHANGE EC MUELLER MW, 1970, EC DEV CULTURAL CHAN, V18, P262 MYHRE D, 1993, UNPUB UNSEEN INSTRUM NGUYEN D, 1979, ECON J, V89, P624 SANDERS WT, 1979, BASIN MEXICO ECOLOGI SANDERSON S, 1986, TRANSFORMATION MEXIC WALSH J, 1993, THESIS PENN STATE U WELLHAUSEN EJ, 1976, SCI AM, V235, P128 WILKEN GC, 1987, FOOD FARMERS TRADITI YATES PL, 1981, MEXICOS AGR DILEMMA NR 26 TC 10 J9 FOOD POLICY BP 149 EP 164 PY 1994 PD APR VL 19 IS 2 GA NK174 UT ISI:A1994NK17400005 ER PT J AU Bharwani, S TI Understanding complex behavior and decision making using ethnographic Knowledge Elicitation Tools (KnETs) SO SOCIAL SCIENCE COMPUTER REVIEW LA English DT Article C1 Stockholm Environm Inst, Stockholm, Sweden. RP Bharwani, S, Stockholm Environm Inst, Stockholm, Sweden. AB Understanding ethnographic data in a formal way is imperative when faced with multiple responses of humans within their environments. Knowledge Elicitation Tools (KnETs) incorporate techniques for modeling knowledge using methods long used in anthropological fieldwork and formalizing knowledge using knowledge engineering methods from computer science. KnETs enhance our understanding of our data to reveal new avenues for enquiry. KnETs support traditional participatory fieldwork methods and produce input for agent-based models, supporting a formalized link between qualitative and quantitative representations of knowledge and their interaction. The fusion of these techniques has resulted in a four-stage process that incorporates consistent verification and validation on data as it is collected by domain experts and informants. The application of this innovative methodology is successful precisely due to the mutual benefits that each technique provides by addressing current bottlenecks in both processes of ethnographic data collection and knowledge engineering. CR *BBC, 1998, UK FARM TAL WOE *ENV AG, 2004, REB AGR POS STAT ENV *MAFF, 2001, AGR UK 2000, CH2 AGAR M, 2004, HUM ORGAN, V63, P411 AGAR M, 2005, JASSS-J ARTIF SOC S, V8, P1 BHARWANI S, 2004, THESIS UK BHARWANI S, 2005, PHILOS T ROYAL SOC B BODEN M, 1999, ARTIFICIELL INTELLIG BURTON I, 1978, ENV HAZARD, V1, P1 DANDRADE R, 1987, CULTURAL MODELS LANG, P112 DANDRADE RG, 1995, DEV COGNITIVE ANTHR ELLEN RF, 1984, ETHNOGRAPHIC RES GUI ELLEN RF, 1986, J ETHNOBIOL, V6, P83 FISCHER MD, 1994, APPL COMPUTING SOCIA FISCHER MD, 2005, CYBERNETICS SYSTEMS, V36 FRIEDMANHILL E, 2001, JESS JAVA EXPERT SYS FRIEDMANHILL E, 2003, JESS ACTION JAVA EXP FRIEDMANHILL E, 2003, JESS ACTION JAVA RUL FURBEE L, 1989, ANTHROPOL QUART, V62, P83 GEERTZ C, 1973, INTERPRETATION CULTU GLADWIN CH, 1983, HUM ORGAN, V42, P146 GLADWIN T, 1970, E BIG BIRD NAVIGATIO KEESING RM, 1987, CULTURAL MODELS LANG KIRBY A, 1999, ONE CRISIS MANY CULP MCGRAW KL, 1989, KNOWLEDGE ACQUISITIO MERCER I, 2002, CRISIS OPPORTUNITY D MURTAUGH M, 1980, TRANSPORTATION RES NIX J, 1998, FARM MANAGEMENT POCK READ DW, 1989, ANTHROPOL QUART, V62, P107 REYNOLDS RG, 2001, AGENT BASED MODELING, CH11 RUSSELL SJ, 1995, ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGE SPRADLEY JP, 1979, ETHNOGRAPHIC INTERVI TVERSKY A, 1972, PSYCHOL REV, V79, P281 WERNER O, 1987, SYSTEMATIC FIELDWORK, V1 WITTEN IH, 2005, DATA MINING PRACTICA WOOD LE, 1993, INT J INTELL SYST, V8, P71 WOOTEN TC, 1995, EXPERT SYST APPL, V9, P469 ZIERVOGEL G, 2004, AGR SYSTEMS ZIERVOGEL G, 2005, UNPUB ADAPTING VARIA NR 39 TC 1 J9 SOC SCI COMPUT REV BP 78 EP 105 PY 2006 PD SPR VL 24 IS 1 GA 003XP UT ISI:000234716600006 ER PT J AU Fothergill, A Peek, LA TI Poverty and disasters in the United States: A review of recent sociological findings SO NATURAL HAZARDS LA English DT Article C1 Univ Colorado, Dept Sociol, UCB 327, Boulder, CO 80309 USA. Univ Vermont, Dept Sociol, Burlington, VT 05405 USA. RP Peek, LA, Univ Colorado, Dept Sociol, UCB 327, Boulder, CO 80309 USA. AB This article synthesizes the literature on poverty and disasters in the United States and presents the results from a wide range of studies conducted over the past twenty years. The findings are organized into eight categories based on the stages of a disaster event. The review illustrates how people of different socioeconomic statuses perceive, prepare for, and respond to natural hazard risks, how low-income populations may be differentially impacted, both physically and psychologically, and how disaster effects vary by social class during the periods of emergency response, recovery, and reconstruction. The literature illustrates that the poor in the United States are more vulnerable to natural disasters due to such factors as place and type of residence, building construction, and social exclusion. The results have important implications for social equity and recommendations for future research and policy implementation are offered. 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RP McLeman, R, Univ Guelph, Dept Geog, Guelph, ON N1G 2W1, Canada. AB This paper reviews the widely used concepts of risk and vulnerability as they relate to climate and weather hazards, re-conceptualizes these terms in the context of climate change and illustrates this development using crop and flood insurance as examples. Government subsidization of insurance against risks associated with adverse climatic conditions and weather events, such as flood damage and crop loss, may lead to individual decisions that actually increase the susceptibility of people, property and economic activities to those risks. The processes that give rise to this phenomenon are important in understanding the vulnerability of human populations to climate change. In many regions, existing conditions that give rise to flooding or crop failure are likely to be exacerbated by climate change over coming decades. In the climate change field, vulnerability has been conceptualised as a function of exposure to risk and as an ability to adapt to the effects. In this context, crop and flood insurance are possible adaptive measures. This treatment of vulnerability compares with similar concepts in insurance and risk management whereby events that cause loss are known as perils, and physical conditions, such as climate change, that increase the likelihood of a peril occurring, are known as physical hazards. Human behaviour that increases the exposure of individuals to potential perils is known as morale hazard or moral hazard, depending on the intentions of the person. Vulnerability consequently becomes a function of hazard and responses taken to reduce risk. Examples of crop and flood insurance programs from Canada, New Zealand and the U.S. are used to show how subsidized insurance might create a morale hazard in addition to physical hazards such as short-term weather events and long-term climate change, resulting in a higher level of vulnerability than would otherwise exist. These findings demonstrate that human behaviour affects the formation of both exposure and adaptive capacity in the context of vulnerability to climate change. Responses taken to increase adaptive capacity may in some cases be offset by individual behaviour that increases exposure. CR BLAIKIE P, 1987, LAND DEGRADATION SOC BLANCHARDBOEHM RD, 2001, APPL GEOGR, V21, P199 BRADSHAW B, 1997, AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON, V64, P245 BRADSHAW B, 1998, NZ GEOGRAPHER, V54, P12 BROWNE MJ, 2000, J RISK UNCERTAINTY, V20, P291 BRYANT CR, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P181 BURBY RJ, 2001, ENV HAZARDS, V3, P111 BURTON I, 1978, ENV HAZARD, V1, P1 CLARK GE, 1998, MITIGATION ADAPTATIO, V3, P59 CLOKE P, 1996, SOCIOL RURALIS, V36, P307 CUTTER SL, 1996, PROG HUM GEOG, V20, P529 DOWNING TE, 1997, MITIGATION ADAPTATIO, V2, P19 FORD JD, 2004, ARCTIC, V57, P389 FRASER EDG, 2003, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V13, P137 GARDETTE JM, 1998, INSUR MATH ECON, V22, P182 HANDMER J, 1999, MITIGATION ADAPTATIO, V4, P267 HEWITT K, 1983, INTERPRETATIONS CALA, P3 HOUGHTON JT, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 KELLY PM, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V47, P325 LEICHENKO RM, 2002, MITIGATION ADAPTATIO, V7, P1 LIVERMAN DM, 2001, GLOBAL ENV RISK, P201 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 MCLEMAN R, 2004, SILOS SYNTHESIS INTE, P16 PYNN R, 1999, APPL BEHAV SCI REV, V7, P171 REILLY JM, 2003, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V57, P43 SCHMITZ A, 1994, EC AGR CROP INSURANC, P45 SEN AK, 1999, DEV FREEDOM SLOVIC P, 2000, PERCEPTION RISK, P1 SMIT B, 2002, MITIGATION ADAPTATIO, V7, P85 SMIT B, 2003, CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPT, P9 SMITH B, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P223 SMITH SL, 1994, NURS HIST REV, V2, P29 SMITHERS C, 1998, THESIS U GUELPH SMITHERS J, 1997, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V7, P129 TOL RSJ, 1998, ENERG POLICY, V26, P257 TRIESCHMANN JS, 2001, RISK MANAGEMENT INSU VELLINGA P, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, P417 WANDEL J, 2000, AGR ENV SUSTAINABILI, P30 WEICHSELGARTNER J, 2001, DISASTER PREVENTION, V10, P85 YOHE GW, 2002, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V12, P25 NR 40 TC 0 J9 CAN GEOGR-GEOGR CAN BP 217 EP 226 PY 2006 PD SUM VL 50 IS 2 GA 068RI UT ISI:000239391700006 ER PT J AU Conway, D Allison, EH Felstead, R Goulden, M TI Rainfall variability in East Africa: implications for natural resources management and livelihoods SO PHILOSOPHICAL TRANSACTIONS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY OF LONDON SERIES A-MATHEMATICAL PHYSICAL AND ENGINEERING SCIENCES LA English DT Article C1 Univ E Anglia, Sch Dev Studies, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. Univ E Anglia, Sch Environm Sci, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. RP Conway, D, Univ E Anglia, Sch Dev Studies, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. AB This note examines the effects of climate variability on natural-resources management in East Africa. The bimodal rainfall regime in much of East Africa brings rainy seasons from March to May and October to December with greater interannual variability from October to December. We discuss the impacts of rainfall extremes in 1961 and 1997 and explore three examples of natural-resources management in the context of rainfall variability: inland fisheries in East and southern Africa; fluctuations in the level of Lake Victoria; and lake-shore communities around Lake Kyoga in Uganda. The discussion reflects the complexity of linkages between climate, environment and society in the region and highlights implications for natural-resources management. These range from benefits due to improved seasonal rainfall forecasting to reduce the damage of extremes, to improved understanding of existing climate-society interactions to provide insights into the region's vulnerability and adaptive capacity in relation to future climate change. CR ALLISON EH, 2001, MAR POLICY, V25, P377 BIRKETT C, 1999, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V26, P1031 CONWAY D, 2002, ADV GLOB CHANGE RES, V12, P63 JOHNSON DH, 1988, ECOLOGY SURVIVAL, P173 JULLARSEN E, 2003, 4261 FAO MUTAI CC, 1998, INT J CLIMATOL, V18, P975 ODINGO RS, 1962, GEOGR REV, V52, P440 OREILLY CM, 2003, NATURE, V424, P766 SARCH MT, 2000, P 10 INT C I FISH EC SUTCLIFFE JV, 1987, HYDROLOG SCI J, V32, P143 TATE E, 2004, HYDROLOG SCI J, V49, P563 WATERBURY J, 2002, NILE BASIN NATL DETE WEBSTER PJ, 1999, NATURE, V401, P356 WELCOMME RL, 2001, INLAND FISHERIES ECO NR 14 TC 1 J9 PHIL TRANS ROY SOC LONDON A BP 49 EP 54 PY 2005 PD JAN 15 VL 363 IS 1826 GA 882WD UT ISI:000225970100005 ER PT J AU Pereira, HM Daily, GC Roughgarden, J TI A framework for assessing the relative vulnerability of species to land-use change SO ECOLOGICAL APPLICATIONS LA English DT Article C1 Stanford Univ, Dept Biol Sci, Stanford, CA 94305 USA. RP Pereira, HM, Fac Ciencias Lisboa, Ctr Biol Ambiental, Edif C2,Campo Grande, P-1749016 Lisbon, Portugal. AB Conversion of native habitat to human-dominated uses is the main driver of global biodiversity loss, yet which species will be most impacted, and why, remain poorly known. There is thus an urgent need to develop frameworks for understanding, and predicting, the effect of habitat alteration on biodiversity. We develop an approach with three components: a demographic model, a regional database of life-history traits, and a sensitivity analysis of the model predictions. We use a spatially explicit model that predicts the fate of individual species in a human-dominated landscape. The model takes as parameters habitat affinity, population growth rate, annual dispersal, and dispersal behavior at the habitat edges. The model predicts the minimum area of native habitat that allows for persistence of a species. We apply the model to a regional community of species, the avifauna of Costa Rica. We gather life-history data (body mass, clutch size, breeding season length, number of broods per year, age at first breeding, life span, and dispersal distance) for Costa Rican birds. When data are not available for Costa Rican species, inferences are made from North American and European birds. We use these data to estimate the model parameters for each species. Minimum patch sizes predicted by the model are used to specify the relative degree of threat faced by each species. We perform a sensitivity analysis of patch size and relative vulnerability predictions to model assumptions and gaps in the data. Our predictions of relative vulnerability are robust to changes in model assumptions and agree with an independently derived empirical assessment. Our framework thus appears to be useful for understanding, and influencing, the fates of neotropical birds and possibly other taxa worldwide. CR *BIRDLIFE INT, 2000, THREATENED BIRDS WOR *FAO, 2001, GLOB FOR RES ASS 200 BEISSINGER SR, 1998, J WILDLIFE MANAGE, V62, P821 BEISSINGER SR, 2000, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V97, P11688 BELISLE M, 2001, ECOLOGY, V82, P1893 BELOVSKY GE, 1987, VIABLE POPULATIONS C, P35 BLAKE JG, 1991, CONSERV BIOL, V5, P58 BLUEWEISS L, 1978, OECOLOGIA, V37, P257 BOULINIER T, 2001, ECOLOGY, V82, P1159 BRAWN JD, 1995, ECOLOGY, V76, P41 BRAWN JD, 1999, P 22 INT ORN C BIRDL, P297 BROWN L, 1968, EAGLES HAWKS FALCONS BURGMAN MA, 1993, RISK ASSESSMENT CONS CALDER WA, 1984, SIZE FUNCTION LIFE H CANTRELL RS, 1994, THEOR POPUL BIOL, V45, P177 CANTRELL RS, 1999, THEOR POPUL BIOL, V55, P189 CANTRELL RS, 2001, J THEOR BIOL, V209, P161 CARR LW, 2001, CONSERV BIOL, V15, P1071 CASAGRANDI R, 1999, NATURE, V400, P560 CAUGHLEY G, 1976, ANAL VERTEBRATE POPU CHRISTIAN DG, 2000, WILSON BULL, V112, P284 COLE LC, 1954, Q REV BIOL, V29, P103 COLLAR NJ, 1992, THREATED BIRDS AM COULSON T, 2001, TRENDS ECOL EVOL, V16, P219 CRAMP S, 1977, HDB BIRDS EUROPE MID DAILY GC, 2001, ECOL APPL, V11, P1 DAILY GC, 2001, NATURE, V411, P245 DAVIES KF, 2000, ECOLOGY, V81, P1450 DESROCHERS A, 1997, CONSERV BIOL, V11, P1204 EHRLICH PR, 1988, BIRDERS HDB FIELD GU FAGAN WF, 2001, ECOL LETT, V4, P132 FIEBERG J, 2000, ECOLOGY, V81, P2040 FOLEY P, 1994, CONSERV BIOL, V8, P124 GASTON KJ, 1996, CONSERV BIOL, V10, P638 GERHARDT RP, 1994, WILSON BULL, V106, P629 GHALAMBOR CK, 2001, SCIENCE, V292, P494 GIBBS JP, 1998, LANDSCAPE ECOL, V13, P263 GILL FB, 1995, ORNITHOLOGY GILLESPIE TW, 2001, CONSERV BIOL, V15, P699 GOODMAN D, 1987, VIABLE POPULATIONS C, P11 GRIFFIN CR, 1998, CONDOR, V100, P654 GROOM MJ, 1998, CONSERVATION BIOL CO, P4 HANSKI I, 1999, METAPOPULATION ECOLO HANSKI I, 2001, DISPERSAL, P283 HENNEMANN WW, 1983, OECOLOGIA, V56, P104 HILTONTAYLOR C, 2000, 2000 IUCN RED LIST T JULLIEN M, 1998, J ANIM ECOL, V67, P227 KARR JR, 1990, AM NAT, V136, P277 KIERSTEAD H, 1953, J MARKETING RES, V12, P141 KLIMIEWICZ MK, 2000, LONGEVITY RECORDS N LAURANCE WF, 1990, J MAMMAL, V71, P641 LENS L, 2002, SCIENCE, V298, P1236 LUDWIG D, 1979, J MATH BIOL, V8, P217 LUDWIG D, 1999, ECOLOGY, V80, P298 MARTIN TE, 1996, J AVIAN BIOL, V27, P263 MAY RM, 1995, EXTINCTION RATES, P1 METZ JAJ, 1983, OECOLOGIA, V57, P166 OVASKAINEN O, 2003, J APPL PROBAB, V40, P557 OWENS IPF, 2000, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V97, P12144 PARADIS E, 1998, J ANIM ECOL, V67, P518 PEREIRA H, 2002, THESIS STANFORD U ST PETERS RH, 1983, ECOLOGICAL IMPLICATI PIMM SL, 1995, SCIENCE, V269, P347 POOLE A, 1992, BIRDS N AM ACAD NATU POSSINGHAM HP, 2001, ENCY BIODIVERSITY, V4, P831 PULLIAM HR, 1988, AM NAT, V132, P652 REID WV, 1992, TROPICAL DEFORESTATI, P53 RICKLEFS RE, 1977, AUK, V94, P86 ROSENZWEIG ML, 1995, SPECIES DIVERSITY SP ROSS C, 1988, J ZOOL, V214, P199 RUSSELL EM, 2000, EMU S 5, V100, P377 SALA OE, 2000, SCIENCE, V287, P1770 SANCHEZAZOFEIFA G, 2001, BIOTROPICA, V33, P378 SANDERCOCK BK, 2000, ECOLOGY, V81, P1351 SEKERCIOGLU CH, 2002, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V99, P263 SIBLEY DA, 2000, SIBLEY GUIDE BIRDS SKELLAM JG, 1951, BIOMETRIKA, V38, P196 STILES FG, 1989, GUIDE BIRDS COSTA RI STOTZ DF, 1996, NEOTROPICAL BIRDS EC THOMAS CD, 2000, P ROY SOC LOND B BIO, V267, P139 THORSTROM R, 2000, WILSON BULL, V112, P195 TURCHIN P, 1998, QUANTITATIVE ANAL MO WOLFRAM S, 1996, MATH BOOK WOODWORTH BL, 1998, J FIELD ORNITHOL, V69, P1 WRIGHT DH, 1998, OECOLOGIA, V113, P1 NR 85 TC 0 J9 ECOL APPL BP 730 EP 742 PY 2004 PD JUN VL 14 IS 3 GA 831DS UT ISI:000222174000009 ER PT J AU Kituyi, E TI Towards sustainable production and use of charcoal in Kenya: exploring the potential in life cycle management approach SO JOURNAL OF CLEANER PRODUCTION LA English DT Article C1 Univ Nairobi, Dept Chem, Ind Ecol Inst, Ind Ecol Grp, Nairobi 00100, Kenya. RP Kituyi, E, Univ Nairobi, Dept Chem, Ind Ecol Inst, Ind Ecol Grp, POB 30197, Nairobi 00100, Kenya. AB The study seeks to demonstrate the potential role that industrial ecology could play towards energy poverty reduction and environmental conservation in Kenya through sustainable charcoal production and consumption. This is achieved through an exploration of the application of the life cycle management (LCM) concept that identifies various opportunities for technological intervention for energy and environmental conservation and reduction of material and energy losses. It also identifies opportunities for income generation at various stages of the product's life cycle; an aspect critical in poverty reduction in developing countries. The study finds that applying LCM in the charcoal trade in Kenya can deliver social, economic and environmental benefits to developing country communities and should, therefore, be promoted. However, appropriate legal, policy and institutional frameworks must exist in these countries for this to occur. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR 2001, AFR PREP C WORLD SUM 2002, JOHANNESBURG PLAN IM *ECA, 2001, TRANSF AFR EC EC REP, P85 *ENV CAN, 1997, ENV LIF CYCL MAN GUI *INT EN AG, 2001, WORLD EN OUTL 2001 *IPCC, 2001, CLIM CHANG 2001 3 AS *MIN EN BEIJ I KEN, 1980, FUELW CYCL SURV *MIN EN, 2001, STUD KEN EN DEM SUPP *UNDP UNDESA WEC, 2000, WORLD EN ASS *WHO, 2000, WORLD HLTH REP 1999 *WORLD BANK, 2000, E ASIA RECOVERY MAY, P146 *WORLD BANK, 2000, FUEL THOUGHT ESTY D, 2002, ENV PERFORMANCE MEAS EZZATI M, 2001, LANCET, V358, P619 GUSTAFSON D, 2001, P AFR HIGH LEV REG M, P99 HARSCH E, 2001, AFRICA RECOVERY UN, V15, P308 HOLMGREN P, 1994, AMBIO, V23, P390 JOSEPH S, 1990, BRINING STOVES PEOPL KAREKEZI S, 1997, RENEWABLE ENERGY TEC KAREKO KK, 2001, FAO UNEP WORKSH DAT KITUYI E, 2001, BIOMASS BIOENERG, V20, P83 KITUYI E, 2001, ENERG CONVERS MANAGE, V42, P1517 KITUYI EN, 2000, THESIS U NAIROBI LACAUX JP, 1994, ATMOS RES, V35, P71 LIFSET R, 2002, IND ECOLOGY LOWE I, 2001, FRIIB WORKSH SUST SC MAHIRI I, 2001, LAND DEGRAD DEV, V12, P205 SAUR K, 2003, DRAFT REPORT LCM DEF TOEPFER K, 2001, AFR HIGH LEV REG M E WALUBENGO D, 1993, WHOSE TECHNOLOGIES D, P60 NR 30 TC 0 J9 J CLEAN PROD BP 1047 EP 1057 PY 2004 VL 12 IS 8-10 GA 829UR UT ISI:000222076200021 ER PT J AU Clark, BM TI Climate change: A looming challenge for fisheries management in southern Africa SO MARINE POLICY LA English DT Review C1 Univ Cape Town, Marine Biol Res Inst, Dept Zool, ZA-7701 Rondebosch, South Africa. RP Clark, BM, Univ Cape Town, Marine Biol Res Inst, Dept Zool, ZA-7701 Rondebosch, South Africa. AB It is now widely accepted that the earth's climate is changing under the influence of anthropogenic activities. A number of key changes in the earths atmosphere and ocean have already been detected (including increasing global surface temperature, rising sea levels, increases in incident UV radiation, changes in average annual precipitation, and increases in the variability and intensity of extreme weather events, among others), while speculation regarding future changes is rife. The implications of global climate change for fish stocks and fisheries is of concern to many scientists, but little effort has been made to incorporate observed changes or event such thinking into management models and paradigms. This paper summarises available evidence linking the production of key greenhouse gases with observed and future projected changes in the earth's climate, specifically in respect of a number of key atmospheric and oceanographic parameters likely to affect fish stocks in South Africa (temperature, pressure/wind fields, CO2 concentration, rainfall, mean sea level and UV radiation). It also explores likely effects of these changes on fish stocks and key fishery sectors. In addition, it highlights a number of positive steps that be taken by management authorities to ensure that they and the fishing communities for which they are responsible are in the best possible position to deal with the effects of changing global climate as they become manifest. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 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RP Payet, R, POB 677, Victoria, Mahe, Seychelles. AB The complex interactions between human activities and the environment at the interface of land and water is analyzed with a focus on the Somali Current (East Africa), and Indian Ocean Island States, subregions of the Global International Waters Assessment (GIWA). These 2 subregions contain some of the world's richest ecosystems, including the high biodiversity forests of Madagascar and the diverse coastal habitats of the eastern African coast. These ecosystems support local communities and national and regional economies. Current and future degradation of these systems, from water basins to continental shelves, affects the livelihoods and sustainability of the countries in the region, and long-term efforts to reduce poverty. The assessments determined that pollution and climate change are the primary environmental and social concerns in the Islands of the Indian Ocean, while freshwater shortage and unsustainable exploitation of fisheries and other living resources are the primary environmental and social concerns in East Africa. The GIWA approach, through assessing root causes of environmental concerns, enables the development of policy approaches for mitigating environmental degradation. This paper explores policy frameworks for mitigating the impacts, and reducing the drivers, of 3 environmental concerns-freshwater shortage; solid waste pollution; and climate change-addressing social and institutional causes and effects, and linking the subregions to broad international frameworks. The common theme in all 3 case studies is the need to develop integrated ecosystem and international waters policies, and mechanisms to manage conflicting interests and to limit threats to natural processes. CR *FAO, 1995, IRR AFR FIG, V7, P336 *FAO, 1997, 920 FAO *FAO, 2000, FAO YB, V90 *INT LTD, 1996, RIV BAS MAN SM IRR I MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 *IUCN, UNEP REG SEAS DIR BI *KMFRI, 2003, CURR STAT TRAWL FISH *U DAR SAL FAO SID, 1998, OV LAND BAS SOURC AC *UNDP, 2000, HUM DEV REP *UNEP, 1984, UNEP REG SEAS REP ST, V49 *UNEP, 1988, CORAL REEFS WORLD, V2 *UNEP, 1999, IOCUNEPEU PUBL *UNEP, 2001, E AFR ATL COAST RES *UNEP, 2002, AFR ENV OUTL PAST PR *WORL BANK, 1998, 18473MAG WORLD BANK *WORLD BAN DANIDA, 1995, RAP WAT RES ASS, V2 *WORLD BANK, 1997, AFR DEV IND BURKE L, 1988, WRI PUBLICATION CEDAR H, 2000, COLLECTED ESSAYS EC CIEINSAIN B, 1998, INTEGRATED COASTAL O DAVENPORT M, 2001, STUDY ALTERNATIVE SP DERRAIK JGB, 2002, MAR POLLUT BULL, V44, P842 DUBOIS R, 1985, COASTAL RESOURCES MA, V3, P443 FIELDING J, 1999, SOMALIA INSHORE LOBS HARA MM, 2001, FOOD POLICY, V26, P11 HATTON J, 2000, E AFRICAN MARINE ECO HATZIOLOS M, 1998, AFRIA FRAMEWORK INTE HOEGHGULDBERG O, 1999, MAR FRESHWATER RES, V50, P839 KAMUKALA G, 2001, SEACAM PUBLICATION KELLEHER G, 1995, ANTARCTIC ARCTIC MED, V2 KELLEHER G, 1995, CENTRAL INDIAN OCEAN, V4 KELLEHER G, 1995, GLOBAL REPRESENTATIV, V1 KELLEHER G, 1995, WIDER CARIBBEAN W AF, V3 LINDEN O, 1993, WORKSH POL C INT COA LINDEN O, 1999, FRNMISTRASIDAWORLDBA LINDEN O, 2002, CORAL REEF DEGRADATI MATO RRA, 2002, THESIS UNEP LAKE JIP MATTHES H, 1988, 814 FAO MCCLANAHAN TR, 1995, COAST MANAGE, V23, P57 MCCLANAHAN TR, 1997, ENVIRON CONSERV, V24, P105 MUJWAHUZI MR, 2001, WATER RESOUR MANAG, P128 MUSYOKI MM, 1999, RES REP ASS MAN AUTH OBURA D, 2000, STATUS CORAL REEFS W, P65 OHMAN M, 1999, CORAL REEF DEGRADATI PAYET RA, 1999, ENV IMPACT ASSESSMEN QUOD J, 2000, CORAL REEF DEGRADATI, P108 RAAL P, 1995, STATUS FUTURE LARGE, P19 RAMAGE CS, 1969, MAR BIOL, V7, P11 ROPELEWSKI CF, 1987, MON WEATHER REV, V115, P1606 RUWA RK, 2003, 46 GIWA SARMETT JD, 1991, CONSERVATION MOUNT K, P53 SARMETT JD, 1999, WORKSH P WAT MAN PAN, P29 SHEPPARD CRC, 2003, NATURE, V425, P294 SHUNULA JP, 1996, THESIS U DARESSALAAM SOAM R, 2001, P WORKSH MIT COR BLE STIASSNY MLJ, 1994, BIOL DIVERSITY AFRIC, V275, P133 VANDERELST, 1998, IMOUNDPSOM970130819 VANDERVLIET PC, 1990, EUKARYOTIC NUCLEUS, V1, P1 VOABIL C, 2003, SEACAM PUBLICAION WEST JM, 2003, CONSERV BIOL, V17, P956 WESTMACOFF S, 2000, MANAGEMENT BLEACHED WILKINSON C, 1999, AMBIO, V28, P188 WILKINSON C, 2000, STATUS CORAL REEFS W YANDA P, 2001, WATER RESOUR MANAG, P104 YANDA Z, 2001, WATER RESOUR MANAG, P30 NR 65 TC 0 J9 AMBIO BP 24 EP 33 PY 2004 PD FEB VL 33 IS 1-2 GA 805RM UT ISI:000220383400005 ER PT J AU Lacaux, JP Tourre, YM TI Does the climate and its variability have an effect on human health? SO BIOFUTUR LA French DT Article C1 GIP Medias France, CNES, F-31401 Toulouse 09, France. RP Lacaux, JP, GIP Medias France, CNES, BPI 2102,18 Av Belin, F-31401 Toulouse 09, France. CR MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 *WHO, 2002, WHO REP 2002 BESANCENOT JP, RAPPORT FINAL GICC BOUMA MJ, 1997, JAMA-J AM MED ASSOC, V278, P1772 BOUMA MJ, 1997, TROP MED INT HEALTH, V2, P1122 GAGNON AS, 2002, INT J BIOMETEOROL, V46, P81 HADDAD ZS, 2004, J GEOPHYS RES, V109, P17 HALES S, 1999, ENVIRON HEALTH PERSP, V107, P99 KELLYHOPE LA, 2004, VECTOR-BORNE ZOONOT, V4, P210 KOVATS RS, 2003, LANCET, V362, P1481 LACAUX JP, 2006, IN PRESS REMOTE SENS LINTHICUM KJ, 1999, SCIENCE, V285, P397 MONDET B, 2005, J VECTOR ECOL, V30, P102 NDIONE JA, 2003, RISQUES SANTE, V2, P176 RODO X, 2002, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V99, P12901 SALUZZO JF, 2004, VIRUS EMERGENTS, P87 TOURRE YM, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V33, P1029 TRAPE JF, 2005, RAPPORT FIN GICC VIBOUD C, 2004, EUR J EPIDEMIOL, V19, P1055 NR 19 TC 0 J9 BIOFUTUR BP 22 EP 25 PY 2006 PD OCT IS 270 GA 102OU UT ISI:000241822600003 ER PT J AU CHEN, RS KATES, RW TI CLIMATE-CHANGE AND WORLD FOOD SECURITY SO GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS LA English DT Editorial Material RP CHEN, RS, CONSORTIUM INT EARTH SCI INFORMAT NETWORK,INTERDISCIPLINARY DATA RESOURCES DIV,2250 PIERCE RD,UNIV CTR,MI 48710. AB What is known about the implications of climate change for world food security? This special issue draws on material presented at a recent international workshop at the University of Oxford. It focuses especially on the distributional impacts of a changing climate and the different levels and sources of vulnerability to environmental change. It reviews recent results from two international agricultural models and examines the potential impacts on agriculture of measures to prevent climate change. A companion special issue of the journal Food Policy addresses the regional and global context of future food security in relationship to a changing environment. CR 1993, JUL NATO ADV RES WOR BENDER WH, IN PRESS FOOD POLICY BOHLE HG, 1991, BAYREUTHER GEOWISSEN, V15 BOHLE HG, 1994, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V4, P37 BURTON I, 1978, ENV HAZARD, V1, P1 CHEN RS, 1990, ENVIRON IMPACT ASSES, V10, P335 CHEN, 1994, FOOD POLICY, V1934 DOWNING TE, 1990, FEWS21 US AG INT DEV FISCHER G, 1994, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V4, P7 KATES RW, 1992, ENVIRONMENT, V34, P25 KATES RW, 1992, ENVIRONMENT, V34, P4 MCGREGOR J, 1994, FOOD POLICY, V19 NORSE D, 1994, FOOD POLICY, V19 REILLY JM, 1994, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V4, P24 ROSENBERG NJ, 1994, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V4, P49 RUTTAN VW, 1994, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V4, P63 SCHNEIDER SH, UNPUB GLOBAL ENV CHA SCHULZE RE, 1993, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V3, P330 TURNER BL, 1993, POPULA TION GROWTH A NR 19 TC 7 J9 GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANGE BP 3 EP 6 PY 1994 PD MAR VL 4 IS 1 GA NK750 UT ISI:A1994NK75000001 ER PT J AU Ruin, I Lutoff, C TI Flash-flood vulnerability and population's mobility in crisis period SO HOUILLE BLANCHE-REVUE INTERNATIONALE DE L EAU LA French DT Article C1 Inst Geog Alpine Grenoble, Lab Terr, Grenoble, France. RP Ruin, I, Inst Geog Alpine Grenoble, Lab Terr, Grenoble, France. AB This paper presents the main issues and developments of a research conducted in spring 2003 on the basis of post evaluation of the 8th-9th September 2002 catastrophic flood event. In the purpose of a qualitative approach of behaviours expressed during the crisis period, we performed several interviews of inhabitants in three flooded communes of the Gard department. Based on the importance of casualties linked to motor vehicles usage during flash flood noted in the literature, we worked on the hypothesis of a correlation between crisis period displacements and usual spatial practices. This study allowed distinguishing various types of behaviours in front of the flood progression. It contributes to the knowledge of the main behavioural factors in the aim of preventive planning and crisis management. CR ANTOINE JM, 2001, ANN GEOGR, P597 BURTON I, 1978, ENV HAZARD, V1, P1 DERCOLE R, 1996, CAHIER SCI HUMAINES, V32, P407 GRUNTFEST EC, 2001, COPING FLASH FLOODS HANDMER JW, 2002, 2 MITCH WORKSH BARC HUBERT G, 1999, PRESSES ECOLE NATL P KATES RW, 1970, NATURAL HAZARD RES P, V14 LUTOFF C, 2000, THESIS CHAMBERY NR 8 TC 0 J9 HOUILLE BLANCHE BP 114 EP 119 PY 2004 IS 6 GA 884JY UT ISI:000226082200015 ER PT J AU Polsky, C TI Putting space and time in Ricardian climate change impact studies: Agriculture in the US Great Plains, 1969-1992 SO ANNALS OF THE ASSOCIATION OF AMERICAN GEOGRAPHERS LA English DT Article C1 Clark Univ, Grad Sch Geog, Worcester, MA 01610 USA. Clark Univ, George Perkins Marsh Inst, Worcester, MA 01610 USA. RP Polsky, C, Clark Univ, Grad Sch Geog, 950 Main St, Worcester, MA 01610 USA. AB The "Ricardian" technique for projecting climate change impacts on agriculture has generated an unusual amount of critical attention. Ricardian climate sensitivities are typically viewed as the necessary and static result of exclusively local economic and biophysical conditions. In this paper, six spatial econometric models are estimated to explore how human-environment relationships associated with climate sensitivities have varied over space and time in the Great Plains, 1969-1992. Results indicate that spatial effects, such as extra-local communication processes and proximity to and regulation of Ogallala irrigation water, are important influences on climate sensitivities. Projected climate change impacts also vary significantly with the scale, location, and time of analysis. Under a hypothetical climate change, at the county scale, land values would decline (by up to one-third) in the western counties, but increase (by up to one-half) in the eastern counties. In some cases, the projected impacts for a given county change algebraic sign or order of magnitude during the study period. At the regional scale, impacts are significantly higher in the early years (a projected increase of about 5 percent of regional land values, similar to$7 billion [1992$]) than in the later years (an increase of about one-half of one percent, similar to$0.7 billion). These results suggest that, suitably modified, the Ricardian framework can be used constructively to explore subtle yet important social dimensions of dynamic climate risk, and that on balance the Great Plains system of agricultural production, despite a heterogeneous picture of projected impacts, appears to be increasingly vulnerable to the effects of climate change. CR *U TEX POP RES CTR, 1998, GREAT PLAINS POP ENV *USDA, 1995, AV VAL PER ACR FARM *USDA, 2001, WHEAT YB FARM PRIC S *USDOC, 2000, TABL CA1 3 PERS INC *USGS, 2001, HIGH PLAINS REG GROU ABLER DG, 2000, GLOBAL PLANET CHANGE, V25, P67 ADAMS RM, 1999, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V41, P3 AIKEN LS, 1991, MULTIPLE REGRESSION ANSELIN L, 1988, SPATIAL ECONOMETRICS ANSELIN L, 1998, HDB APPL EC STAT, P237 ANSELIN L, 2001, COMPANION THEORETICA, P310 ANTLE JM, 1996, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V80, P67 BALLER RD, 2001, CRIMINOLOGY, V39, P561 BARNARD CH, 1997, AM J AGR ECON, V79, P1642 BLAUT J, 1977, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V67, P343 BOWDEN MJ, 1981, CLIMATE HIST, P479 CASH DW, 2001, SCI TECHNOL HUM VAL, V26, P431 CLINE WR, 1996, AM ECON REV, V86, P1309 CONNER D, 1997, J SUSTAIN AGR, V10, P5 CURRIE J, 1981, EC THEORY AGR LAND T CUTTER S, 2001, INT HUMAN DIMENSIONS, V1, P8 DARWIN RF, 1999, AM ECON REV, V89, P1049 DORNBUSCH AJ, 1995, CONSERVATION GREAT P, P231 DOWNING TE, 1991, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V1, P365 DOWNING TE, 2000, INT HUMAN DIMENSIONS, P16 DOWNING TE, 2001, POLICY SERIES, V3 EASTERLING WE, 1993, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V24, P23 EASTERLING WE, 1997, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V7, P337 EMEL J, 1995, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V85, P664 FABER M, 2002, ECOL ECON, V40, P323 FLINT C, 1998, AM BEHAV SCI, V41, P1282 GLANTZ MH, 1988, SOC RESPONSES REGION, P113 GREEN DE, 1992, GROUNDWATER EXPLOITA, P28 GRUBLER A, 1998, TECHNOLOGY GLOBAL CH HANEMANN WM, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P571 HANSEN LR, 1991, J AGR ECON RES, V43, P18 JONES K, 1997, SPATIAL ANAL MODELLI, P79 KAISER HM, 1993, AM J AGR ECON, V75, P387 KANDLIKAR M, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P529 KASPERSON JX, 2001, INT WORKSH VULN GLOB KATES RW, 1985, CLIMATE IMPACT ASSES, P3 KATES RW, 2001, SCIENCE, V292, P641 KAUFMANN RK, 1998, ECOL ECON, V26, P113 KEPFIELD SS, 1993, GREAT PLAINS Q FAL, P237 KROMM DE, 1990, CONSERVING WATER HIG LAUENROTH WK, 1999, GREAT PLAINS RES, V9, P223 LIVERMAN DM, 2001, GLOBAL ENV RISK, P201 LOCKERETZ W, 1978, AM SCI, V66, P560 MCCARTHY JJ, IN PRESS ASSESSMING MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 MENDELSOHN R, 1993, COSTS IMPACTS BENEFI, P173 MENDELSOHN R, 1994, AM ECON REV, V84, P753 MENDELSOHN R, 1996, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V80, P55 MENDELSOHN R, 1999, IMPACT CLIMATE CHANG OBRIEN KL, 2000, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V10, P221 OBRIEN KL, 2003, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V93, P89 OLOUGHLIN J, 1994, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V84, P351 OPIE J, 2000, OGALLALA WATER DRY L PARRY ML, 2001, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V11, P257 POLSKY C, IN PRESS DROUGHT WAT POLSKY C, IN PRESS INTEGRATED POLSKY C, 2001, AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON, V85, P133 POLSKY C, 2002, THESIS PENNSYLVANIA QUIGGIN J, 1999, AM ECON REV, V89, P1044 RAPP D, 1988, US GOT AGR WHY IT CA RIEBSAME WE, 1983, URBAN FRINGE LAND US, P257 RIEBSAME WE, 1991, GREAT PLAINS RES, V1, P133 ROBERTS R, 1995, REGIONS RISK COMPARI, P255 ROSENBERG NJ, 1987, GREAT PLAINS Q WIN, P22 ROSENBERG NJ, 1992, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V21, P385 RUSSELL CS, 1970, DROUGHT WATER SUPPLY SAUER R, 1990, AM J ALTERNATIVE AGR, V5, P184 SCHNEIDER SH, 1997, ENVIRON MODEL ASSESS, V2, P229 SCHNEIDER SH, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P203 SCHROTER D, IN PRESS MITIGATION SIEBENHUNER B, 2000, ECOL ECON, V32, P15 SKOLD MD, 1995, CONSERVATION GREAT P TURNER BL, 2003, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V100, P8074 WARRICK RA, 1981, GREAT PLAINS PERSPEC, P111 WILHITE DA, 1988, SOCIETAL RESPONSES R, P353 WILHITE DA, 2003, HDB WEATHER CLIMATE, P743 NR 81 TC 0 J9 ANN ASSN AMER GEOGR BP 549 EP 564 PY 2004 PD SEP VL 94 IS 3 GA 848LP UT ISI:000223469500008 ER PT J AU Hubbert, GD McInnes, KL TI A storm surge inundation model for coastal planning and impact studies SO JOURNAL OF COASTAL RESEARCH LA English DT Article C1 Global Environm Modelling Syst, Warrandyte, Australia. CSIRO, Div Atmospher Res, Aspendale, Vic 3195, Australia. RP Hubbert, GD, Global Environm Modelling Syst, Warrandyte, Australia. AB A high resolution storm surge inundation model has been developed to model coastal flooding due to storm surges. The storm surge model, which features a nesting capability and inundation algorithm, is described. The flooding and draining rate is dependent on the modelled current in adjacent 'wet' grid cells which ensures realistic and smoothly varying results. Model simulations are carried out in two distinctly different geographic regions. The first of these is the town of Port Hedland on the northwest coast of Australia which was severely inundated by a tropical cyclone-induced storm surge in 1939. The model is shown to reproduce the peak flood levels and areas of inundation to a high degree of accuracy. Storm surge heights at the coast produced by a 'fixed-coastline' version of the model are compared with the inundation model results and indicate an overestimation of the storm surge heights by up to 17%. Simulations are conducted with varied horizontal resolution to investigate the robustness of the model. The flooding rates and areas of inundation are relatively unaffected by moderate variations in horizontal resolution. The second region studied is Port Phillip Bay, upon which the city of Melbourne is located. The model is used to simulate the storm surge and inundation produced by two separate cold fronts. The vulnerability of two locations within the Bay is investigated under altered sea level and storm strength conditions to demonstrate the potential impact of climate change. In a final simulation, levee banks on the tributaries draining into the bay are removed. The vastly increased inundation serves to illustrate the importance of maintaining and possibly increasing flood protection measures in this region in the future. CR *SPEC SERV UN, 1994, SSU942 BUR MET SPEC ADAMS JR, 1987, TIDE LEVELS NOVEMBER FALCONER RA, 1987, P I CIVIL ENG PT 2, V83, P161 FLATHER RA, 1975, GEOPHYS J ROY ASTRON, V42, P489 FLATHER RA, 1990, MODELING MARINE SYST, V1, P135 FLATHER RA, 1991, COMPUTER MODELLING E, P15 FLATHER RA, 1993, CLIMATE SEA LEVEL CH, P229 FLATHER RA, 1994, J PHYS OCEANOGR, V24, P172 HOLLAND GJ, 1980, MON WEATHER REV, V108, P1212 HUBBERT GD, 1990, Q J ROY METEOR SOC, V116, P1005 HUBBERT GD, 1991, WEATHER FORECAST, V6, P86 JARVINEN BR, 1985, B AM METEOROL SOC, V66, P1408 KONISHI T, 1995, PAPERS METEOROLOGY G, V46, P9 LEENDERSTE JJ, 1971, WATER Q SIMULATION M, V2 MCINNES KL, 1992, AUST METEOROL MAG, V40, P21 MCINNES KL, 1996, ENV PROTECTION AUTHO, V488 MESINGER F, 1976, GARP PUBL SER, V17 MILLER MJ, 1974, QUART J ROY METEOROL, V100, P133 MILLER MJ, 1981, Q J ROY METEOR SOC, V107, P615 MILLS GA, 1990, MON WEATHER REV, V118, P1217 REID RO, 1968, J WATERWAYS HARBORS, V9, P35 SIELECKI A, 1970, J COMPUT PHYS, V6, P219 SIGNELL RP, 1992, J GEOPHYS RES-OCEANS, V97, P15591 SMITH SD, 1975, Q J R METEO, V101, P665 WHETTON PH, 1995, P GREENHOUSE 94, P145 YEH GT, 1979, J WATERW PORT COASTA, V105, P247 NR 26 TC 11 J9 J COASTAL RES BP 168 EP 185 PY 1999 PD WIN VL 15 IS 1 GA 157RE UT ISI:000078074800015 ER PT J AU Whitman, J TI Human systems and global governance SO SYSTEMS RESEARCH AND BEHAVIORAL SCIENCE LA English DT Article C1 Univ Bradford, Dept Peace Studies, Bradford BD7 1DP, W Yorkshire, England. RP Whitman, J, Univ Bradford, Dept Peace Studies, Bradford BD7 1DP, W Yorkshire, England. AB Many of the trends identified by Geoffrey Vickers are now clearly visible in the intensification of globalizing dynamics, yet the implications of these developments for human security and sustainability have still not been grasped adequately. The most pertinent and extensive literature in the social sciences concerning political and organizational arrangements at the highest levels of human organization is the study of global governance. However, the many themes and perspectives that comprise this literature tend toward sectoral speciality, or intra-community theoretical debates. If we are to engage Geoffrey Vickers ' insightful and now pressing range of questions, global governance theorists might do best to ask, ' What would an adequate global governance be the governance f?' Copyright (c) 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. CR BRIGHT C, 1999, LIFE BOUNDS BIO INVA CRIGGER BJ, 1998, CASES BIOETHICS SELE GLASIUS M, 2002, GLOBAL CIVIL SOC YB HALL SS, 1993, MAPPING MILLENNIUM C HEROD A, 1998, UNRULY WORLD GLOBALI HEWSON M, 1999, APPROACHES GLOBAL GO HIGGOTT R, 2002, GLOBAL POLITY KICKERT WJM, 1993, ORGAN STUD, V14, P261 KIMBRELL A, 1993, HUMAN BODY SHOP ENG MITCHELL JK, 1999, CRUCIBLES HAZARD MEG PEARCE F, 2004, NEW SCI 0918, P6 RHODES RAW, 1996, POLIT STUD-LONDON, V44, P652 RIFKIN J, 1998, BIOTECH CENTURY COMI ROSENAU JN, 1992, GOVERNANCE GOVT ORDE ROSENAU JN, 1997, DOMESTIC FOREIGN FRO ROTHSTEIN MA, 1997, GENETIC SECRETS PROT SCHOLTE JA, 2000, GLOBALIZATION INTRO SHAW M, 1994, GLOBAL SOC INT RELAT VICKERS G, 1968, VALUE SYSTEMS SOCIAL VICKERS G, 1970, FREEDOM ROCKING BOAT VICKERS G, 1983, HUMAN SYSTEMS DIFFER WHITMAN J, 2002, SECUR DIALOGUE, V33, P45 WHITMAN J, 2005, GLOB GOV, V11, P85 WHITMAN J, 2005, LIMITS GLOBAL GOVT WILKINSON R, 2002, GLOBAL GOVT CRITICAL NR 25 TC 0 J9 SYST RES BEHAV SCI BP 311 EP 317 PY 2005 PD JUL-AUG VL 22 IS 4 GA 952AW UT ISI:000230974700005 ER PT J AU Eakin, H Tucker, C Castellanos, E TI Responding to the coffee crisis: a pilot study of farmers' adaptations in Mexico, Guatemala and Honduras SO GEOGRAPHICAL JOURNAL LA English DT Article C1 Univ Calif Santa Barbara, Dept Geog, Santa Barbara, CA 93106 USA. Indiana Univ, Dept Anthropol, CIPEC, Ctr Study Inst Populat & Environm Change, Bloomington, IN 47405 USA. Univ Valle Guatemala, Ctr Estudios Ambientales, Guatemala City, Guatemala. RP Eakin, H, Univ Calif Santa Barbara, Dept Geog, Santa Barbara, CA 93106 USA. AB This article explores the impacts of market shocks and institutional change on smallholder livelihoods, and the challenge of adaptation in Mexico, Guatemala and Honduras. The rapid decline in coffee prices since the dissolution of the International Coffee Agreement in 1989 has had widespread and profound impacts across coffee-producing regions. The data collected in the three case studies of this project confirm the severity of the impact, particularly in the Mexican and Guatemalan communities. They also illustrate the importance of the historical relationship between farmers and public institutions in defining farmers' perception of risk, their awareness of the nature of the changes they face, and thus the flexibility of their responses to present and future uncertainty. The project's findings indicate that the existence and development of local networks among farmers, service providers and information sources may be critical for facilitating adaptation, particularly in the context of economic liberalization and globalized agriculture. 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AFF, V70, P115 EHRLICH A, 1990, HIDDEN DANGERS ENV C EKINS P, 1992, NEW WORLD ORDER GRAS EMEL J, 1989, NEW MODELS GEOGRAPHY, V1, P49 ENLOE C, 1989, BANANAS BEACHES BASE FAIRCLOUGH AJ, 1991, WASH QUART, V14, P81 FEARNSIDE PM, 1989, BIOSCIENCE, V39, P387 FEATHERSTONE M, 1990, GLOBAL CULTURE FINGER M, 1991, 10 SYR U OCC PAP FRENCH HF, 1990, 99 WORLDW I WORLDW P FRENCH HF, 1992, 107 WORLDW I WORLD P GEORGE S, 1988, FATE WORSE DEBT GLEICK PH, 1989, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V15, P309 GLEICK PH, 1991, B ATOM SCI, V47, P16 GORE A, 1990, SAIS REV, V10, P59 GRAY CB, 1991, FOREIGN POLICY, V83, P47 GRAY CS, 1990, WAR PEACE VICTORY ST GUIMARAES RP, 1991, ECOPOLITICS DEV THIR HAGLUND DG, 1986, POLIT GEOGR QUART, V5, P221 HASS PM, 1990, MILLENNIUM, V19, P347 HECHT S, 1990, FATE FOREST DEV DEST HEILBRONER RL, 1980, INQUIRY HUMAN PROSPE HELMAN U, 1990, WASH QUART, V13, P193 HENDERSONSELLERS A, 1991, PROG PHYS GEOG, V15, P53 HOLLIS HB, 1989, CONQUEST WAR ALTERNA HOLST JJ, 1989, B PEACE PROPOSALS, V20, P123 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P11 MANES C, 1990, GREEN RAGE RAD ENV U MATHEWS JT, 1989, FOREIGN AFF, V68, P162 MCGWIRE M, 1991, PERESTROIKA SOVIET N MELLOR JW, 1988, ENVIRONMENT, V30, P8 MISCHE G, 1977, HUMAN WORLD ORDER BE MISCHE P, 1992, NEW AGENDAS PEACE RE, P103 MISCHE PM, 1989, ALTERNATIVES, V14, P389 MITCHELL T, 1991, AM POLIT SCI REV, V85, P77 MOLLER B, 1992, COMMON SECURITY NONO MOLVAER RK, 1991, B PEACE PROPOSALS, V22, P175 MYERS N, 1989, FOREIGN POLICY, V74, P23 OLOUGHLIN J, 1990, PROG HUM GEOG, V14, P420 OLOUGHLIN J, 1991, PROG HUM GEOG, V15, P322 OPSCHOOR JB, 1989, B PEACE PROPOSALS, V20, P135 ORIORDAN T, 1989, NEW MODELS GEOGRAPHY, V1, P77 ORIORDAN T, 1990, MARXISM TODAY 0712 OSTROM E, 1990, GOVERNING COMMONS EV OTUATHAIL G, 1992, POLIT GEOGR, V11, P190 PAEHLKE R, 1990, MANAGING LEVIATHAN E PAGGI L, 1985, TELOS, V63, P3 PEET R, 1989, NEW MODELS GEOGRAPHY, V1, P43 PETERS CM, 1989, NATURE, V339, P655 PETERSON VS, 1992, GENDERED STATES FEMI PIRAGES D, 1978, NEW CONTEXT INT RELA PRINS G, 1990, INT AFF, V66, P711 REDCLIFT M, 1987, SUSTAINABLE DEV EXPL RENNER M, 1989, 89 WORLDW I WORLDW P RENNER M, 1989, WORLD WATCH, V2, P8 RENNER M, 1991, STATE WORLD 1991 WOR, P132 RIEBSAME WE, 1990, PROF GEOGR, V42, P1 RIFKIN J, 1991, BIOSPHERIC POLITICS ROWLANDS I, 1991, PEACE CHANGE, V16, P260 ROWLANDS I, 1991, WASH QUART, V14, P99 ROWLANDS I, 1992, GLOBAL ENV CHANGE IN RYAN JC, 1991, WORLD WATCH, V4, P19 SANDERS J, 1983, PEDDLARS CRISIS CCOM SANDERS J, 1991, B PEACE PROPOSALS, V21, P395 SCHRIJVER N, 1989, B PEACE PROPOSALS, V20, P115 SMITH D, 1987, PROSPECTUS HABITABLE SMITH SJ, 1989, T I BRIT GEOGR, V14, P144 SORENSEN TC, 1990, FOREIGN AFF, V69, P1 SPRINGER AL, 1991, P ACADEMY POLITICAL, V38, P129 STARR JR, 1991, FOREIGN POLICY, V82, P17 TURNER BL, 1990, EARTH TRANSFORMED HU ULLMAN RH, 1983, INT SECURITY, V8, P129 WALKER RBJ, 1988, ONE WORLD MANY WORLD WALKER RBJ, 1990, ALTERNATIVES, V15, P3 WALKER RBJ, 1990, CONTENDING SOVEREIGN WALKER RBJ, 1992, INSIDE OUTSIDE INT R WALTZ K, 1979, THOERY INT RELATIONS WAPNER P, 1992, APR ANN CONV INT STU WARRICK R, 1990, T I BRIT GEOGR, V15, P5 WESCOAT JL, 1991, PROG HUM GEOG, V15, P81 WESTING AH, 1986, GLOBAL RESOURCES INT WESTING AH, 1988, CULTURAL NORMS WAR E WESTING AH, 1989, B PEACE PROPOSALS, V20, P129 WESTING AH, 1991, AMBIO, V20, P168 WESTON B, 1990, ALTERNATIVE SECURITY WIDGREN J, 1990, INT AFF, V66, P749 YERGIN D, 1977, SHATTERED PEACE ORIG NR 160 TC 18 J9 PROG HUM GEOGR BP 503 EP 522 PY 1992 PD OCT VL 16 IS 4 GA KC039 UT ISI:A1992KC03900001 ER PT J AU Blong, R TI Residential building damage and natural perils: Australian examples and issues SO BUILDING RESEARCH AND INFORMATION LA English DT Article C1 Macquarie Univ, N Ryde, NSW 2109, Australia. RP Blong, R, Macquarie Univ, N Ryde, NSW 2109, Australia. AB The most important natural perils in Australia are tropical cyclones, earthquakes, bushfires, thunderstorms, floods, landslides and tsunamis. However, as far as residential buildings are concerned, the correct relative order of importance depends on the frames of reference used. Certainly, meteorological perils are more significant than geological hazards. Residential building damage produced by the most important natural hazards is assessed. Governance is shown to be poorly related to actual risk. Tropical cyclone wind-loading codes are amongst the best in the world, but the more limited potential for storm surge damage is largely ignored. While land-use regulations are strong in some states, almost no attention has been paid to appropriate building materials for flood-prone properties. Hail is probably the most important peril along the populated south-eastern seaboard, but no regulations govern roofing materials. Other issues relating to the present understanding of damage to buildings are raised. CR *BUR TRANSP EC, 2001, 103 BTE *KMC PLAYB, 1992, STORM PYMBL AITKEN AP, 1976, HYDR S AUSTR I ENG U, P56 ANDREWS KE, 1997, NAT HAZARDS, V16, P113 BATT K, 1995, WORKSH ATM HAZ PROC, P20 BLONG R, 2003, NAT HAZARDS, V30, P1 BLONG RJ, 1990, NEWCASTLE EARTHQUAKE BLONG RJ, 1995, INSURANCE VIABILITY, P143 BLONG RJ, 2001, RISK FRONTIERS NEWSL, V1 COATES L, 1996, NDR 96 C NAT DIS RED, P49 CRICHTON D, 2003, FLOOD RISK INSURANCE FESTER G, 1994, EARTHQUAKE PML HOUSE FESTER G, 1995, EARTHQUAKE PML HOUSE HAY MG, 1968, 168 MRL BHP HENDRIX DL, 1999, P BELTW COTT RES C N, P47 JOHNSTON I, 1991, FACTORS INFLUENCING JOY CS, 1991, CLIM IMP CTR MACQ U JOY CS, 1993, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V25, P335 KING D, 1997, AUSTR J EMERGENCY MA, V12, P29 LEICESTER RH, 1976, P ANN C TOWNSV I ENG, P242 MARKER MS, 1994, 34 ANN FLOOD MIT C I NJAI A, 1990, FLOOD LOSS ASS INF R PIELKE RA, 1997, HURRICANES THEIR NAT RAMSAY C, 2003, LANDSCAPE BUILDING D RAMSAY GC, 1996, P LINN SOC N S W, V116, P133 REARDON G, 1994, HURRICANES 1992, P642 REARDON GF, 1986, 27 J COOK CYCL STRUC SMITH DI, 1990, CTR RESOURCES ENV ST, V2 SMITH DI, 1994, CRES ANU RESOURCE EN, V8 SPARK E, 1995, 21 JANUARY 1991 SYDN WALKER GR, 1994, HURRICANES 1992 LESS, P249 WILSON AAG, 1986, J ENVIRON MANAGE, V23, P259 NR 32 TC 2 J9 BUILDING RES INFORM BP 379 EP 390 PY 2004 PD SEP-OCT VL 32 IS 5 GA 847NO UT ISI:000223402400004 ER PT J AU Ruttan, VW TI The transition to agricultural sustainability SO PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA LA English DT Article C1 Univ Minnesota, Dept Appl Econ & Econ, St Paul, MN 55108 USA. RP Ruttan, VW, Univ Minnesota, Dept Appl Econ & Econ, St Paul, MN 55108 USA. AB The transition to sustainable growth in agricultural production during the 21st century will take place within the context of a transition to a stable population and a possible transition to a stable level of material consumption. If the world fails to successfully navigate a transition to sustainable growth in agricultural production, the failure will be due more to a failure in the area of institutional innovation than to resource and environmental constraints. 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Dynamic estimates SO ENVIRONMENTAL & RESOURCE ECONOMICS LA English DT Article C1 Univ Hamburg, Ctr Marine & Climate Res, Hamburg, Germany. Vrije Univ Amsterdam, Inst Environm Studies, Amsterdam, Netherlands. Carnegie Mellon Univ, Ctr Integrated Study Human Dimens Global Change, Pittsburgh, PA 15213 USA. RP Tol, RSJ, Univ Hamburg, Ctr Marine & Climate Res, Hamburg, Germany. AB Monetised estimates of the impact of climate change are derived. Impacts are expressed as functions of climate change and `vulnerability'. Vulnerability is measured by a series of indicators, such as per capita income, population above 65, and economic structure. Impacts are estimated for nine world regions, for the period 2000-2200, for agriculture, forestry, water resources, energy consumption, sea level rise, ecosystems, fatal vector-borne diseases, and fatal cardiovascular and respiratory disorders. Uncertainties are large, often including sign switches. In the short term, the estimated sensitivity of a sector to climate change is found to be the crucial parameter. In the longer term, the change in the vulnerability of the sector is often more important for the total impact. Impacts can be negative or positive, depending on the time, region, and sector one is looking at. Negative impacts tend to dominate in the later years and in the poorer regions. CR ARROW KJ, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, P125 BANURI T, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, P79 BIJLSMA L, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, P289 DARWIN RF, 1995, EC ADAPTATIONS, V703 DOWNING TE, 1995, EC IMPACTS CLIMATE C DOWNING TE, 1996, PROJECTED COSTS CLIM FANKHAUSER S, 1994, ENVIRON PLANN A, V27, P299 FANKHAUSER S, 1997, ENVIRON RESOUR ECON, V10, P249 FANKHAUSER S, 1998, WEATHERING CLIMATE C FRANKHAUSER S, 1995, VALUING CLIMATE CHAN HOOZEMANS FMJ, 1993, GLOBAL VULNERABILITY KANE SM, 1992, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V21, P17 LIND R, 1998, EC POLICY ISSUES CLI, P59 MARTENS WJM, 1995, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V5, P195 MARTENS WJM, 1997, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V35, P145 MARTIN PH, 1995, AMBIO, V24, P200 MARTINELLI F, 1998, STUD ROMANI, V46, P3 MENDELSOHN RO, 1996, COUNTRY SPECIFIC MAR MENDELSOHN RO, 1996, GLOBAL IMPACT MODEL MENDELSOHN RO, 1997, CLIMATE RESPONSE FUN MENDELSOHN RO, 1998, EC POLICY ISSUES CLI, P219 MORIKAWA H, 1998, APPL MATH LETT, V11, P1 MORITA T, 1994, ESTIMATION CLIMATE C MURRAY CJL, 1996, GLOBAL BURDEN DIS CO NORDHAUS WD, 1996, AM ECON REV, V86, P741 PEARCE DW, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, P179 PEREZGARCIA J, 1995, EC IMPACT CLIMATE CH REILLY JM, 1994, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V4, P24 ROSENZWEIG C, 1994, NATURE, V367, P133 TOL RSJ, 1994, ENERG POLICY, V22, P436 TOL RSJ, 1995, ENVIRON RESOUR ECON, V5, P353 TOL RSJ, 1996, ECOL ECON, V19, P67 TOL RSJ, 1997, ENVIRON MODEL ASSESS, V2, P151 TOL RSJ, 1998, ENVIRON MODEL ASSESS, V3, P63 TOL RSJ, 1999, ENVIRON RESOUR ECON, V14, P33 TOL RSJ, 2000, WORLD ECON, V1, P179 TOL RSJ, 2002, ENVIRON RESOUR ECON, V21, P47 TSIGAS ME, 1996, GLOBAL TRADE ANAL MO VANDENBERGH JCJ, 1997, METAANALYSIS ENV EC WATSON RT, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, V1, P1 WEYANT J, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, P367 NR 41 TC 11 J9 ENVIRON RESOUR ECON BP 135 EP 160 PY 2002 PD FEB VL 21 IS 2 GA 530JB UT ISI:000174353600002 ER PT J AU Bulto, PLO Rodriguez, AP Valencia, AR Vega, NL Gonzalez, MD Carrera, AP TI Assessment of human health vulnerability to climate variability and change in Cuba SO ENVIRONMENTAL HEALTH PERSPECTIVES LA English DT Article C1 Climate Ctr, Inst Meteorol, Havana, Cuba. Trop Med Inst Pedro Kouri, Havana, Cuba. Minist Publ Hlth Cuba, Vector Control Dept, Havana, Cuba. RP Bulto, PLO, Carretera Asilo,S-N,Apartado 17032, Havana 11700, Cuba. AB In this study we assessed the potential effects of climate variability and change on population health in Cuba. We describe the climate of Cuba as well as the patterns of climate-sensitive diseases of primary concern, particularly dengue fever. Analyses of the associations between climatic anomalies and disease patterns highlight current vulnerability to climate variability. We describe current adaptations, including the application of climate predictions to prevent disease outbreaks. Finally, we present the potential economic costs associated with future impacts due to climate change. The tools used in this study can be useful in the development of appropriate and effective adaptation options to address the increased climate variability associated with climate change. Key words: climate change, climate indices, climate variability, human health, impacts. CR *PAN AM HLTH ORG, 1997, BOL EPIDEMIOL, V18, P1 *WHO, 2004, WHOSDEOEH0401 *WORLD METL ORG, 2001, INF FIN ABREV DEC RE BASILEVSKY B, 1994, STAT FACTOR ANAL REL BULTO PLO, 1998, URBAN ECOL, P98 BULTO PLO, 2000, REV METEOROL COLOMB, V3, P75 BULTO PLO, 2003, REV CUBANA METEOROL, V10, P39 BULTO PLO, 2003, REV METEOROL COLOMB, V7, P11 BULTO PLO, 2004, 82 NAT PROGR GLOB CH BULTO PLO, 2004, REV CUBANA METEOROL, V11, P41 BURTON I, 1999, COME HELL HIGH WATER CARDENAS PA, 1998, 09901 HAB CHAN NY, 1999, ENVIRON HEALTH PERSP, V107, P329 DILLON WR, 1984, MULTIVARIATE ANAL ENFIELD DB, 1998, DEPENDENCE CARIBBEAN GUTIERREZ T, 1998, 112 NAT PROGR GLOB C GUZMAN MG, 1990, AM J TROP MED HYG, V42, P179 HAINES A, 2004, JAMA-J AM MED ASSOC, V291, P99 HAIR JF, 1999, ANAL MULTIVARIANTE KOURI G, 1997, B EPIDEMIOL ORGAN PA, V18, P7 KOURI GP, 1989, B WORLD HEALTH ORGAN, V67, P375 KOVATS RS, 2003, HLTH GLOBAL ENV CHAN, V1 LORENZ EN, 1956, 1 MIT DEP MET MCMICHAEL AJ, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE HUMAN MCMICHAEL AJ, 1999, B ORGAN METEOROL MUN, V48, P16 MCMICHAEL AJ, 2003, CLIMATE CHANGE HUMAN MICHAEL HJ, 1999, B ORGAN METEOROL MUN, V48, P32 MITCHELL JFB, 1995, J CLIMATE, V8, P2364 PIAKIN RD, 1981, MICROBIOLOGIA UROLOG SANMARTIN HF, 1963, SALUD ENFERMEDAD, V1 WOODWARD A, 1998, CLIMATE RES, V11, P31 NR 31 TC 1 J9 ENVIRON HEALTH PERSPECT BP 1942 EP 1949 PY 2006 PD DEC VL 114 IS 12 GA 112BN UT ISI:000242500200045 ER PT J AU Negash, A Niehof, A TI The significance of enset culture and biodiversity for rural household food and livelihood security in southwestern Ethiopia SO AGRICULTURE AND HUMAN VALUES LA English DT Article C1 Univ Wageningen & Res Ctr, NL-6700 HB Wageningen, Netherlands. RP Negash, A, Wageningen Univ, Dept Social Sci, Sect Sociol Consumers & Households, POB 8060, NL-6700 DA Wageningen, Netherlands. AB The significance of enset (Ensete ventricosum Welw. Cheesman) for the food and livelihood security of rural households in Southwestern Ethiopia, where this crop is the main staple, raises two major questions. The first concerns the related issues of household food security and livelihood security and the contribution of the enset farming and food system in achieving these. The second deals with the issue of biodiversity in enset cultivation. What role does biodiversity play in food and livelihood security and how is it perceived and measured? To answer the latter question, it is necessary to look at the issue of classification of enset varieties, comparing indigenous and scientific classifications. In answering the questions, an interdisciplinary approach is used, and both etic and emic perspectives are applied. A gender perspective is applied as well because of the gendered division of labor in enset cultivation and the gendered nature of indigenous knowledge. The analysis draws mainly on the. findings of a recent study on enset cultivation in Ethiopia [Negash (2001) PhD thesis, Wageningen University, The Netherlands]. The findings show that enset farming guarantees household food security to a large extent, but that household livelihood security depends on the cultivation of additional crops and household ownership of livestock and other assets. It was also found that maximizing diversity in enset is of importance to farmers, and that the farmers' classification of enset varieties yields a finer grid than the classification of enset clones on the basis of molecular analysis. CR *FAO, 1999, STAT FOOD SEC WORLD ABATE T, 1996, ENSET BASED SUSTAINA ALMEKINDERS C, 2000, ENCOURAGING DIVERSIT ALMEKINDERS C, 2001, UPWARD SERIES RURAL, V2 BRANDT AS, 1997, TREE HUNGER ENSET BA CHAMBERS R, 1989, IDS B, V20, P1 ELLIS F, 1998, J DEV STUD, V35, P1 ELLIS F, 2000, RURAL LIVELIHOODS DI HARMON D, 2001, BIOCULTURAL DIVERSIT, P53 HARMON D, 2002, LIGHT OUR DIFFERENCE HARRIS M, 1968, RISE ANTHR THEORY KUSIN J, 1973, THESIS VRIJE U AMSTE MAXWELL S, 1992, HOUSEHOLD FOOD SECUR NEGASH A, 2001, THESIS WAGENINGEN U NEGASH A, 2002, CROP SCI, V42, P1105 NIEHOF A, 1999, H C PUBLICATION SERI, V2, P105 NIEHOF A, 2001, WAGENINGEN UPWARD SE, V1 RAHMATO D, 1996, ENSET BASED SUSTAINA, P83 RUDIE I, 1995, MALE FEMALE DEV SE A, P227 SHACK WA, 1966, GURAGE PEOPLE ENSET TSEGAYE A, 2002, THESIS WAGENINGEN U VOS P, 1995, NUCLEIC ACIDS RES, V23, P4407 WESTPHAL E, 1975, AGR SYSTEMS ETHIOPIA NR 23 TC 0 J9 AGRIC HUMAN VALUES BP 61 EP 71 PY 2004 PD SPR VL 21 IS 1 GA 801PM UT ISI:000220107800006 ER PT J AU Chapin, FS Lovecraft, AL Zavaleta, ES Nelson, J Robards, MD Kofinas, GP Trainor, SF Peterson, GD Huntington, HP Naylor, RL TI Policy strategies to address sustainability of Alaskan boreal forests in response to a directionally changing climate SO PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA LA English DT Article C1 Univ Alaska, Inst Arctic Biol, Fairbanks, AK 99775 USA. Univ Alaska, Dept Polit Sci, Fairbanks, AK 99775 USA. Univ Calif Santa Cruz, Dept Environm Studies, Santa Cruz, CA 95064 USA. McGill Univ, Dept Geog, Montreal, PQ H3A 2K6, Canada. Huntington Consulting, Eagle River, AK 99577 USA. Stanford Univ, Woods Inst Environm, Stanford, CA 94305 USA. RP Chapin, FS, Univ Alaska, Inst Arctic Biol, Fairbanks, AK 99775 USA. AB Human activities are altering many factors that determine the fundamental properties of ecological and social systems. Is sustainability a realistic goal in a world in which many key process controls are directionally changing? To address this issue, we integrate several disparate sources of theory to address sustainability in directionally changing social-ecological systems, apply this framework to climate-warming impacts in Interior Alaska, and describe a suite of policy strategies that emerge from these analyses. Climate warming in Interior Alaska has profoundly affected factors that influence landscape processes (climate regulation and disturbance spread) and natural hazards, but has only indirectly influenced ecosystem goods such as food, water, and wood that receive most management attention. Warming has reduced cultural services provided by ecosystems, leading to some of the few institutional responses that directly address the causes of climate warming, e.g., indigenous initiatives to the Arctic Council. Four broad policy strategies emerge: (i) enhancing human adaptability through learning and innovation in the context of changes occurring at multiple scales; (ii) increasing resilience by strengthening negative (stabilizing) feedbacks that buffer the system from change and increasing options for adaptation through biological, cultural, and economic diversity; (iii) reducing vulnerability by strengthening institutions that link the high-latitude impacts of climate warming to their low-latitude causes; and (iv) facilitating transformation to new, potentially more beneficial states by taking advantage of opportunities created by crisis. Each strategy provides societal benefits, and we suggest that all of them be pursued simultaneously. CR 2005, ECOSYSTEMS HUMAN WEL *NAT RES COUNC, 1999, COMMON JOURNEY TRANS *NAT RES COUNC, 2004, DEV RES REST PLAN AR *SAI, 2004, ARCT HUM DEV REP ADGER WN, 2005, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V15, P77 AMUNDSON R, 1997, BIOSCIENCE, V47, P536 ARROW K, 2004, J ECON PERSPECT, V18, P147 BARBER VA, 2000, NATURE, V405, P668 BERG EE, 2006, FOREST ECOL MANAG, V227, P219 BERKES F, 2002, EARTH FASTER INDIGEN, P335 BERKES F, 2003, NAVIGATING SOCIAL EC, V1, P1 BERKES F, 2005, BREAKING ICE RENEWAB, P225 BROSIUS JP, 1999, CURR ANTHROPOL, V40, P277 CARPENTER SR, 2000, ECOSYSTEMS, V3, P495 CARPENTER SR, 2006, TRENDS ECOL EVOL, V21, P309 CASH DW, 2000, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V10, P109 CHAPIN FS, 2001, GLOBAL BIODIVERSITY, P101 CHAPIN FS, 2002, PRINCIPLES TERRESTRI CHAPIN FS, 2003, FRONT ECOL ENVIRON, V1, P255 CHAPIN FS, 2006, ALASKAS CHANGING BOR CHAPIN FS, 2006, AMBIO, V35, P198 CHASEDUNN C, 2000, J INTERAM STUD WORLD, V42, P109 CLARK WC, 2003, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V100, P8059 COSTANZA R, 1997, NATURE, V387, P253 DAILY GC, 1997, NATURES SERVICES SOC DAILY GC, 2000, SCIENCE, V289, P395 DASGUPTA P, 2001, HUMAN WELL BEING NAT DEWILDE L, 2006, IN PRESS ECOSYSTEMS DIAMOND J, 2005, COLLAPSE SOC CHOOSE DIETZ T, 2003, SCIENCE, V302, P1907 ELMQVIST T, 2003, FRONT ECOL ENVIRON, V1, P488 FOLKE C, 2005, ANNU REV ENV RESOUR, V30, P441 FOLKE C, 2006, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V16, P253 FORBES BC, 2004, AMBIO, V33, P377 FORD JD, 2004, ARCTIC, V57, P389 FRESCO NL, 2006, THESIS U ALASKA FAIR GUNDERSON LH, 2002, PANARCHY UNDERSTANDI, V1, P1 GUNDERSON LH, 2002, RESILIENCE BEHAV LAR HINZMAN LD, 2005, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V72, P251 HOLLING CS, 1996, CONSERV BIOL, V10, P328 HUNTGINTON HP, 2006, ECOL SOC, P11, P40 JANSSEN MA, 2006, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V16, P240 KASISCHKE ES, 2006, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V3 KASPERSON RE, 2005, ECOSYSTEMS HUMAN WEL, V1, P143 KRUPNIK I, 2002, EARTH FASTER NOW IND LOVECRAFT AL, 2004, ADM THEOR PRAXIS, V26, P383 MAGDANZ JS, 2002, 259 AL DEP FISH GAM MCCARTHY JJ, 2005, ARCTIC CLIMATE IMPAC, P945 MCGUIRE AD, 2006, IN PRESS ANN REV ENV, V31 OSTROM E, 1999, THEORIES POLICY PROC, P35 OSTROM E, 2005, UNDERSTANDING I DIVE PETERSON GD, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V44, P291 PUTNAM R, 1993, MAKING DEMOCRACY WOR SCHIMEL DS, 1995, GLOBAL CHANGE BIOL, V1, P77 SCHNEIDER SH, 1998, J RISK RES, V1, P165 STEFFEN WL, 2004, GLOBAL CHANGE EARTH TURNER BL, 2003, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V100, P8074 TURNER BL, 2004, EARTH SYSTEM ANAL SU, P227 VITOUSEK PM, 1997, SCIENCE, V277, P494 WALKER BH, 2004, ECOL SOC, V9, P1 WALTERS CJ, 1986, ADAPTIVE MANAGEMENT YOUNG OR, 2002, I DIMENSIONS ENV CHA NR 62 TC 0 J9 PROC NAT ACAD SCI USA BP 16637 EP 16643 PY 2006 PD NOV 7 VL 103 IS 45 GA 104PB UT ISI:000241969500005 ER PT J AU Watson, RT Haeberli, W TI Environmental threats, mitigation strategies and high-mountain areas SO AMBIO LA English DT Article C1 World Bank, Washington, DC 20433 USA. Univ Zurich, Dept Geog, CH-8057 Zurich, Switzerland. RP Watson, RT, World Bank, 1818 H St NW,MSN MC4-139, Washington, DC 20433 USA. AB High-mountain areas suffer from increasing environmental threats. The causes are often global in dimension but lead to specific impacts under conditions of steep and/or high-altitude terrain with strong effects from snow and ice. This paper presents a global perspective, focussing primarily on observed and projected changes in climate and then goes on to discuss key messages of greatest relevance to the highest belts of mountain regions. The paper finishes with a brief discussion of mitigation strategies. CR 2003, CBD TECHNICAL SERIES, V10 2003, CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK *ROYAL SWED AC SCI, 2002, 11 ROYAL SWED AC SCI BENISTON M, 2000, ENV CHANGE MOUNTAINS CIHLAR J, 1997, GCOSGTOS PLAN TERRES ETZELMULLER B, 2001, NORSK GEOGRAFISK TID, V55, P186 GITAY H, 2002, IPCC TECHNICAL PAPER, V5 HAEBERLI W, 1997, ECLOGAE GEOL HELV, V90, P407 HAEBERLI W, 1999, GEOGR ANN A A, V81, P585 HAEBERLI W, 2002, IUFRO RES SERIES, V9, P167 HARRIS C, 2001, PERMAFROST PERIGLAC, V12, P3 HARRIS C, 2003, WMO B, V3, P252 HEYWOOD VH, 1995, GLOBAL BIODIVERSITY HOUGHTON JT, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 JOHNSON T, 1997, CLEAR WATER BLUE SKI KAAB A, 2003, 1384 EOS LATERNSER M, 2003, INT J CLIMATOL, V23, P733 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 METZ B, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 NAKICENOVIC N, 2000, SPECIAL REPORT EMISS THOMAS CD, 2004, NATURE, V427, P145 WATSON RT, 1998, PROTECTING OUR PLANE WATSON RT, 2000, SPECIAL REPORT LAND WATSON RT, 2001, CLIMATE CHANFE 2001 NR 24 TC 0 J9 AMBIO BP 2 EP 10 PY 2004 PD NOV GA 870LN UT ISI:000225058700002 ER PT J AU Schlumpf, C Pahl-Wostl, C Schonborn, A Jaeger, CC Imboden, D TI Impacts - An information tool for citizens to assess impacts of climate change from a regional perspective SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 Swiss Fed Inst Environm Sci & Technol EAWAG, CH-8606 Dubendorf, Switzerland. Armadillo Webworks, CH-6003 Luzern, Switzerland. Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res, D-14473 Potsdam, Germany. Swiss Fed Inst Technol, CH-8092 Zurich, Switzerland. RP Pahl-Wostl, C, Swiss Fed Inst Environm Sci & Technol EAWAG, Uberlandstr 133, CH-8606 Dubendorf, Switzerland. AB Participatory Integrated Assessement (IA) methods complement analytical methods like IA-modeling in their explicit inclusion of stakeholders and decision-makers in the assessment. Integrated Assessment is perceived as a process of social learning involving scientists, stakeholders, policymakers and the society at large. We introduce a new approach to provide expert knowledge for participatory integrated assessments of regional climate change: 'Interactive Citizen's Information Tools' (ICITs). ICITs provide citizens with expert knowledge about causes of climate change, potential impacts, and policy options to address anthropogenic climate change. In this paper we discuss the development and application of IMPACTS in IA-focus groups in Switzerland. IMPACTS is based on user-friendly hypermedia technologies and allows citizens to get informed on a broad range of potential climate change impacts - with an emphasis on prevailing uncertainties. IA-focus groups are deliberative group discussions that make use of computer tools to support the discussion and assessment. The goal of IA-focus groups is to elicit how informed citizens judge the risks of anthropogenic climate change. Experiences with IMPACTS showed that the combination of focus groups with ICITs is a feasible and promising approach for a participatory IA of regional climate change, in particular, and of complex environmental issues, in general. CR ABEGG B, 1998, APPL GEOGRAPHY DEV, V51, P81 ADHIKARY S, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, P191 BADER S, 1998, KLIMARISIKEN HERAUSF BAILEY PD, 1996, METHODS INTEGRATED A, P33 BALSUBRAMANI V, 1995, 28 ANN HAW INT C SYS, P241 BOSTROM A, 1994, RISK ANAL, V14, P959 BRUCE JP, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 995 E BUSBY JR, 1988, GREENHOUSE PLANNING, P387 CEBON P, 1998, VIEWS ALPS REGIONAL, P500 COHEN SJ, 1997, ENVIRON MODEL ASSESS, V2, P281 DAHINDEN U, 1999, WP992 EAWAG DEVRIES HJM, 1995, SUSCLIME, P11 DOWLATABADI H, 1993, ENERG POLICY, V21, P209 DURRENBERGER G, 1997, WP972 DARMST U TECHN DURRENBERGER G, 1999, SCI PUBL POLICY, V26, P341 FOWLER AM, 1995, NAT HAZARDS, V11, P282 FREI C, 1998, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V25, P1431 FREI C, 1999, J CLIMATE, V14, P1568 FUNTOWICZ SO, 1990, THEORY DECISION LI A, V15, P229 GYALISTRAS D, 1998, VIEWS ALPS REGIONAL, P171 HOUGHTON JJ, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995 IMBODEN DM, 1998, VIEWS ALPS, P1 JAEGER C, 1999, EUROPEAN J SOCIAL SC, V3, P195 JAEGER CC, 1997, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V7, P195 JAEGER CC, 1998, HUMAN CHOICE CLIMATE, V3, P141 JAEGER CC, 1998, KLIMKAPOLITIK CHANCE JASANOFF S, 1998, HUMAN CHOICE CLIMATE KASEMIR B, 1997, WP971 DARMST U TECHN KASEMIR B, 1999, WP991 KASEMIR B, 2000, ENVIRONMENT, V42, P32 MALONE T, 1992, GLOBAL ENV CHANG JUN, P101 MINSCH J, 1998, I REFORMEN POLITIK N MORGAN G, 1990, UNCERTAINTY GUIDE DE MORGAN MG, 1996, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V34, P337 NORDHAUS W, 1994, MANAGING GLOBAL COMM PAHLWOSTL C, 1998, VIEWS ALPS REGIONAL, P435 PARRY ML, 1998, CLIMATE IMPACT ADAPT, P166 PARSON EA, 1996, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V34, P315 PARSON EA, 1997, ENVIRON MODEL ASSESS, V2, P267 READ D, 1994, RISK ANAL, V14, P971 ROSENBERG NJ, 1991, ENVIRON CONSERV, V18, P313 ROSENBERG NJ, 1993, INTEGRATED IMPACT AS ROTMANS J, 1994, 461502004 RIVM NAT I ROTMANS J, 1996, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V34, P327 ROTMANS J, 1997, PERSPECTIVES GLOBAL ROTMANS J, 1998, ENVIRON MODEL ASSESS, V3, P155 ROTMANS J, 1998, HUMAN CHOICES CLIMAT, P291 SCHLUMPF C, 1999, ENVIRON MODEL ASSESS, P4 SCHNEIDER SH, 1997, ENVIRON MODEL ASSESS, V2, P229 SCHNEIDEWIND U, 1997, GAIA, V6, P182 TOTH FL, 1988, SIMULATION GAMES, V19, P235 VANASSELT M, 1999, UNCERTAINTY DECISION VANASSELT MBA, 1996, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V6, P121 VANASSELT MBA, 2000, UNPUB UNCERTAINTY RI, CH2 VANDAALEN CE, 1998, EXPERIENCES DIALOGUE VANDERSLUIJS J, 1996, WP96119 IIASA VANDERSLUIJS JP, 1997, ANCHORING UNCERTAINT WATSON RT, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, V1, P1 WATSON RT, 1998, REGIONAL IMPACTS CLI, V1, P1 WEYANT J, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, P367 WILLI N, 1998, KLIMAVERANDERUNG URT YATES DN, 1998, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V38, P261 NR 62 TC 1 J9 CLIMATIC CHANGE BP 199 EP 241 PY 2001 PD NOV VL 51 IS 2 GA 479HE UT ISI:000171398300004 ER PT J AU Parson, EA Corell, RW Barron, EJ Burkett, V Janetos, A Joyce, L Karl, TR MacCracken, MC Melillo, JM Morgan, MG Schimel, DS Wilbanks, TJ TI Understanding climatic impacts, vulnerabilities, and adaptation in the United States: Building a capacity for assessment SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Review C1 Harvard Univ, John F Kennedy Sch Govt, Cambridge, MA 02138 USA. Amer Meteorol Soc, Washington, DC USA. Penn State Univ, University Pk, PA 16802 USA. USGS, Natl Wetlands Res Ctr, Lafayette, LA USA. World Resources Inst, Washington, DC 20006 USA. Forest Serv, USDA, Washington, DC USA. NOAA, Natl Climat Data Ctr, Washington, DC USA. US Global Change Res Program, Washington, DC USA. Lawrence Livermore Natl Lab, Livermore, CA 94550 USA. Marine Biol Lab, Ctr Ecosyst, Woods Hole, MA 02543 USA. Carnegie Mellon Univ, Pittsburgh, PA 15213 USA. Max Planck Inst Biogeochem, Jena, Germany. Natl Ctr Atmospher Res, Boulder, CO 80307 USA. Oak Ridge Natl Lab, Oak Ridge, TN 37830 USA. RP Parson, EA, Harvard Univ, John F Kennedy Sch Govt, 79 JFK St, Cambridge, MA 02138 USA. AB Based on the experience of the U.S. National Assessment, we propose a program of research and analysis to advance capability for assessment of climate impacts, vulnerabilities, and adaptation options. We identify specific priorities for scientific research on the responses of ecological and socioeconomic systems to climate and other stresses: for improvement in the climatic inputs to impact assessments; and for further development of assessment methods to improve their practical utility to decision-makers. Finally, we propose a new institutional model for assessment, based principally on regional efforts that integrate observations, research, data, applications, and assessment on climate and linked environmental-change issues. The proposed program will require effective collaboration between scientists, resource managers, and other stakeholders, all of whose expertise is needed to define and prioritize key regional issues, characterize relevant uncertainties, and assess potential responses. While both scientifically and omanizationally challenging, such an integrated program holds the best promise of advancing Our capacity to manage resources and the economy adaptively under a changing climate. 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RP Ertekin, C, Akdeniz Univ, Fac Agr, Dept Farm Machinery, TR-07070 Antalya, Turkey. AB Agricultural production in Turkey is not sustainable due to degradation and loss of croplands, rapid population growth, and inequitable economic growth (poverty and overconsumption). Degrading land uses and management practices disturb the life-supporting biogeochemical cycles within croplands and between croplands and natural ecosystems by increasing emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs: CO2, CH4, N2O, CFCs, and tropospheric O-3), pollution of water, soil and air, loss of soil organic matter and biodiversity, erosion, salinization and desertification. Sustainability-oriented management practices in croplands include maintenance of soil organic matter by conservation tillage and residue management, windbreaks, selection of crops ecologically adapted to local climate regimes, efficient crop rotation, enhancement of agrobiodiversity (e.g. intercropping and agroforestry), and adoption of proper drainage techniques. Implementation of these preventive and mitigative measures necessitates internalization of ecological principles into agricultural policy and management processes. This study explores the opportunities and limitations of agricultural sustainability in Turkey in a holistic manner. A multiple linear regression (MLR) model was developed to relate CO2 emissions to energy intensity (energy use/gross domestic product), affluence (gross domestic product/population) and population growth. Our MLR model with a high R-2 of 97 per cent revealed that stabilization of human population growth, and increasing energy efficiency in economic growth are essential to decreasing GHG emissions and enhancing environmental quality. Copyright (C) 2002 John Wiley Sons, Ltd. CR 1998, ISTATISTIKLERLE TURK 1999, ENV STAT B 2001, TURKIYE EKONOMISINDE *CTIC, 1998, NAT CROP RES MAN SUR *FAO, 2001, FOSTAT *IPCC, 1990, SCI ASS CLIM CHANG R *MARA MOF MOE, 1993, IN SIT CONS GEN DIV EVRENDILEK F, 2000, ENVIRON MANAGE, V26, P479 EVRENDILEK F, 2000, THESIS OHIO STATE U EVRENDILEK F, 2001, ENVIRON MODELL SOFTW, V16, P361 MARLAND G, 1999, NATL CO2 EMISSIONS F MILLER FP, 1995, CAN J SOIL SCI, V75, P413 NEWCOMBE K, 1984, EC JUSTIFICATION RUR OLDEMAN LR, 1994, SOIL RESILIENCE SUST, P99 PAUSTIAN KH, 1997, SOIL ORGANIC MATTER, P15 PIMENTEL D, 1995, J AGR ENVIRON ETHIC, V8, P17 PINSTRUPANDERSE.P, 1994, WORLD FOOD TRENDS FU SCHLESINGER WH, 1999, SCIENCE, V284, P2095 SMITH LC, 1999, FOOD SECURITY NEW SO, P73 SWAMINATHAN MS, 1996, SUSTAINABLE AGR FOOD TEKINEL O, 1981, TURKIYEDE TOPRAK KAY TILMAN D, 1999, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V96, P5995 WALI MK, 1999, NATURE RESOURCES, V35, P20 WALI MK, 2002, HDB ECOLOGICAL RESTO, V2 NR 24 TC 5 J9 LAND DEGRAD DEV BP 61 EP 67 PY 2002 PD JAN-FEB VL 13 IS 1 GA 521GL UT ISI:000173830800005 ER PT J AU Ngugi, RK Nyariki, DM TI Rural livelihoods in the arid and semi-arid environments of Kenya: Sustainable alternatives and challenges SO AGRICULTURE AND HUMAN VALUES LA English DT Article C1 Univ Nairobi, Dept Range Management, Nairobi, Kenya. RP Nyariki, DM, Univ Nairobi, Dept Range Management, POB 29053, Nairobi, Kenya. AB The improvement of the welfare of inhabitants of and and semi-arid lands, either through the enhancement of existing livelihoods or the promotion of alternative ones, and their potential constraints are discussed. Alternative livelihoods are discussed under regenerative and extractive themes with respect to environmental stability. Regenerative (i.e., non-extractive) livelihoods include activities like apiculture, poultry keeping, pisciculture, silkworm production, drought tolerant cash cropping, horticulture, community wildlife tourism, processing of livestock and crop products, agro-forestry for tree products, and micro-enterprises in the informal sector. Examples of livelihoods that are extractive or potentially so include timber production, woodcarving, basketry, brick making, sand scooping, and charcoal making. Suggestions to improve these livelihoods in a sustainable manner are offered. CR *GOV KENYA GOK, 1994, NAT DEV PLAN 1994 19 *GOV KENYA GOK, 1996, EC SURV CARNEY D, 1998, 1998 DFID NAT RES AD CARTER I, 1997, FOODSTEPS, V35, P3 DAVIES S, 1996, ADAPTABLE LIVELIHOOD DEUSON RR, 1990, AGR EC, V4, P255 ELLIS F, 1999, J DEV STUD, V35, P1 FRANCIS P, 1988, AGR SYST, V27, P35 HALEY S, 1991, AGR EC, V6, P129 HERLOCKER D, 1999, RANGELAND RESOURCES KENNEDY E, 1994, J DEV STUD, V30, P680 NYARIKI DM, 1997, THESIS U READING NYARIKI DM, 1999, J SOCIAL SCI, V3, P117 NYARIKI DM, 1999, P WORKSH IMPR RUR LI, P8 NYARIKI DM, 2004, ECOL FOOD NUTR, V41, P155 PINSTRUPANDERSO.P, 1994, 287 IFPRI PINSTRUPANDERSO.P, 1994, ASS FOOD SEC THIRD W PINSTRUPANDERSO.P, 1997, ANN C AGR EC SOC MAR ROUMMASSET JA, 1976, RICE RISK DECISION M SWIFT J, 1989, IDS B, V20, P8 WALKER TS, 1986, CROP INSURANCE AGR D WEBSTER JPG, 1977, J AGR ECON, V28, P243 NR 22 TC 1 J9 AGRIC HUMAN VALUES BP 65 EP 71 PY 2005 PD SPR VL 22 IS 1 GA 934NY UT ISI:000229716700006 ER PT J AU MILLETTE, TL TULADHAR, AR KASPERSON, RE TURNER, BL TI THE USE AND LIMITS OF REMOTE-SENSING FOR ANALYZING ENVIRONMENTAL AND SOCIAL-CHANGE IN THE HIMALAYAN-MIDDLE-MOUNTAINS-OF-NEPAL SO GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS LA English DT Article C1 CLARK UNIV,GEORGE PERKINS MARCH INST,WORCESTER,MA 01610. TRIBHUVAN UNIV,INST FORESTRY,POKHARA,NEPAL. CLARK UNIV,GRAD SCH GEOG,WORCESTER,MA 01610. RP MILLETTE, TL, MT HOLYOKE COLL,GEOPROC LAB,304 CLAPP,S HADLEY,MA 01075. AB The 'middle mountains' zone of the Himalayas is a region in stress due to human actions undertaken in a high energy environment, This study is an initial exploration of this region of human environment 'criticality' or 'endangerment' through the lens of remotely sensed imagery. Three villages in the Middle Mountains representing different environmental and socio economic situations are examined by means of image processing of Landsat Thematic Mapper data, coupled with ground studies, in order to identify indicators of social and environmental change expressed in the landscape, Preliminary results are both encouraging and cautioning, Indications are that 30 metre resolution satellite data can provide useful information associated with broad land management practices, landesque capital and land cover changes, Such data are important for the debate on Himalayan environmental degradation, but ideally need to be combined with ground truthing, fieldwork, and interviewing to provide an assessment of types and causes of environmental change. CR 1982, TAUTHALI IRRIGATION 1985, LAND RESOURCES MAPPI 1993, FOREST RESOURCES TER ANUTA PE, 1977, GEOPHYSICS, V42, P468 BLAIKIE PM, 1980, NEPAL CRISIS BLAIKIE PM, 1987, LAND DEGRADATION SOC CARSON BR, 1985, ICIMOD1 OCC PAP CHAVEZ PS, 1988, REMOTE SENS ENVIRON, V24, P459 CIVCO DL, 1989, PHOTOGRAMM ENG REM S, V55, P1303 COLBY JD, 1991, PHOTOGRAMM ENG REM S, V57, P531 CRAVEN D, 1991, 1991 ACSM ASPRS ANN, V3, P41 ECKHOLM EP, 1976, LOSING GROUND ENV ST ESTES JE, 1983, FUNDAMENTALS IMAGE A GURNEY CM, 1983, PHOTOGRAMMETRIC ENG, V51, P231 HALLKONYVES K, 1987, INT J REMOTE SENS, V8, P157 HOLBEN BN, 1980, NASA80640 GODD SPAC HOLBEN BN, 1980, PHOTOGRAMMETRIC ENG, V46, P671 HUGLI H, 1983, PHOTOGRAMM ENG REM S, V49, P671 IVES JD, 1989, HIMALAYAN DILEMMA RE JAMPOLER SN, 1990, 1990 ACSM ASPRS ANN, V4, P208 JENSEN JR, 1986, INTRO DIGITAL IMAGE JODHA NS, 1990, MFS SERIES ICIMOD, V1 JODHA NS, 1992, MFS SERIES ICIMOD, V25 JODHA NS, 1995, IN PRESS GLOBAL ENV JODHA NS, 1995, IN PRESS REGIONS RIS JOHNSON K, 1982, MOUNTAIN RES DEV, V2, P157 JONES AR, 1988, INT J REMOTE SENS, V9, P669 KASPERSON JX, 1995, REGIONS RISK, V1, P1 KATWAL B, 1992, MFS SERIES ICIMOD, V26 KAWATA Y, 1988, INT J REMOTE SENS, V9, P729 KHATRYCHETRY J, 1992, MOUNTAIN POPULATION, V14 LEPRIEUR CE, 1988, PHOTOGRAMMETRIC ENG, V54, P491 LO CP, 1986, INT J REMOTE SENS, V7, P1051 METZ JJ, 1991, WORLD DEV, V19, P805 MORAN EF, 1994, BIOSCIENCE, V44, P329 RAO PPN, 1987, INT J REMOTE SENS, V8, P639 ROSEFIELD G, 1981, PHOTOGRAMMETRIC ENG, V47, P131 SABINS F, 1987, REMOTE SENSING PRINC SCHMID R, 1971, CONTRIBUTIONS LAND U SHRESTHA S, 1992, MFS32 ICIMOD DISC PA SINGH A, 1986, REMOTE SENSING TROPI, P237 SINGH AN, 1986, INT J REMOTE SENS, V7, P1099 SKOLE D, 1993, SCIENCE, V260, P1905 SMADJA J, 1992, MT RES DEV, V12, P1 STOHR CJ, 1985, PHOTOGRAMM ENG REM S, V51, P229 STRAHLER AH, 1980, REMOTE SENS ENVIRON, V10, P135 THOMPSON M, 1985, MT RES DEV, V5, P115 TIELLET PM, 1982, CANADIAN J REMOTE SE, V8, P84 TIWARI AK, 1987, ENVIRON CONSERV, V14, P233 TUCKER CJ, 1980, REMOTE SENS ENVIRON, V10, P23 VIRGO KJ, 1994, MT RES DEV, V14, P159 WOODCOCK CE, 1980, 14TH P INT S REM SEN NR 52 TC 7 J9 GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANGE BP 367 EP 380 PY 1995 PD SEP VL 5 IS 4 GA TB627 UT ISI:A1995TB62700011 ER PT J AU Webster, IT Harris, GP TI Anthropogenic impacts on the ecosystems of coastal lagoons: modelling fundamental biogeochemical processes and management implications SO MARINE AND FRESHWATER RESEARCH LA English DT Article C1 CSIRO Land & Water, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia. CSIRO, Corp Headquarters, Dickson, ACT 2602, Australia. RP Webster, IT, CSIRO Land & Water, GPO Box 1666, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia. AB This paper presents a biogeochemical model of a coastal lagoon intended to be representative of lagoons occurring along the south-east and south-west coasts of Australia. Many of these lagoons are threatened by increased nutrient loads because of land use change, by alterations to their freshwater inflows and by modification to their tidal flushing regimens. The model simulates the biogeochemical response of the lagoon to nutrient ( nitrogen) loading and includes nutrient transformation processes in the sediments, as well as in the water column. The paper focuses on the response of primary producers to increasing and decreasing nutrient loads and how the response is altered by changes in the flushing rate of the lagoon with the sea. In common with lakes, the modelled lagoon exhibits alternative stable states representing macrophyte or phytoplankton dominance depending on nutrient loading and history. A third state representing severe degradation occurs when denitrification shuts down. A characteristic of Australian coastal lagoon systems is that, due to highly sporadic rainfall patterns, nutrient inflows are dominated by intermittent extreme events. The modelling demonstrates that such a loading regimen may be expected to generally increase the vulnerability of the lagoon to increasing nutrient loads. The results of the analysis presented are pertinent to several questions raised by coastal managers, such as what are the expected benefits of improving flushing by dredging and what are the consequences of altering the timing and magnitudes of the loads reaching the lagoons? CR *LOICZ, 2001, BIOG MOD NOD ALEXANDER WJR, 1985, HYDROBIOLOGIA, V125, P75 BIRD ECF, 1967, LANDFORM STUDIES AUS, P365 BLINDOW I, 1993, FRESHWATER BIOL, V30, P159 BLINDOW I, 1997, ECOL STUD, V131, P353 BORUM J, 1996, OIKOS, V76, P406 COADE G, 2002, LAKE MACQUARIE INTEG DUCKER SC, 1977, IDENTIFICATION AQUAT HARRIS GP, 1996, PORT PHILLIP BAY ENV HARRIS GP, 1997, HYDROBIOLOGIA, V349, P19 HARRIS GP, 1998, AUST J ECOL, V23, P80 HARRIS GP, 1999, MAR FRESHWATER RES, V50, P791 HODGKIN EP, 1981, ESTUARIES NUTR, P307 JANSE JH, 1997, HYDROBIOLOGIA, V342, P1 KJERFVE B, 1994, ELSEVIER OCEANOG SER, V60, P1 LIGHT BR, 1998, AQUAT BOT, V61, P39 MURRAY A, 1997, 44 CSIRO ENV PROJ OF MURRAY AG, 1999, ECOL MODEL, V119, P149 MURRAY AG, 1999, MAR FRESHWATER RES, V50, P597 ROCHFORD DJ, 1975, P ECOLOGICAL SOC AUS, V8, P67 SCHEFFER M, 1998, ECOLOGY SHALLOW LAKE SEITZINGER SP, 1988, LIMNOL OCEANOGR, V33, P702 SOETAERT K, 2000, EARTH-SCI REV, V51, P173 WEBSTER IT, 2001, GIPPSLAND LAKES ENV WEBSTER IT, 2002, ESTUARIES, V25, P540 NR 25 TC 1 J9 MAR FRESHWATER RES BP 67 EP 78 PY 2004 VL 55 IS 1 GA 776VK UT ISI:000189139900006 ER PT J AU Leemans, R Eickhout, B TI Another reason for concern: regional and global impacts on ecosystems for different levels of climate change SO GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS LA English DT Article C1 Wageningen Univ, NL-6700 DD Wageningen, Netherlands. Off Environm Assessment, NL-3720 BA Bilthoven, Netherlands. RP Leemans, R, Wageningen Univ, POB 47, NL-6700 DD Wageningen, Netherlands. AB This study assesses the impacts of climate change on species, ecosystems and landscapes over a range of increasing global mean temperatures and the corresponding temperature and precipitation patterns. Results from IMAGE, a so-called integrated assessment model, are used to link different ecological impacts to different levels of climate change. The analysis shows that, although there are large regional differences, even small increases in global mean temperatures will considerably impact many species, ecosystems and landscapes. Between 1degreesC and 2degreesC increases in global mean temperatures most species, ecosystems and landscapes will be impacted and adaptive capacity will become limited. With the already ongoing high rate of climate change, the decline in biodiversity will therefore accelerate and simultaneously many ecosystem services will become less abundant. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *IMAGE TEAM, 2001, RIVM CD ROM PUBL ALCAMO J, 1998, IMAGE 2 1 MODEL PERG, P296 BALMFORD A, 2002, SCIENCE, V297, P950 CARTER TR, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, P145 COX PM, 2000, NATURE, V408, P180 CRAMER W, 1999, GLOB CHANGE BIOL S1, V5, P1 CRAMER WP, 1993, VEGETATION DYNAMICS, P190 DAVIS MB, 1989, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V15, P75 DUKES JS, 1999, TRENDS ECOL EVOL, V14, P135 EMANUEL WR, 1985, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V7, P29 GITAY H, 2002, CLIMAGE CHANGE BIODI, V5, P77 HUNTLEY B, 1988, VEGETATION HIST, P803 LEEMANS R, 1992, BIODIVERSITY 1992 ST, P254 LEEMANS R, 2003, ENVEPOCGSP20035FINAL MALCOLM JR, 2000, 34 WWF NAKICENOVIC N, 2000, EMISSIONS SCENARIOS, P599 PAGE SE, 2002, NATURE, V420, P61 PARMESAN G, 2003, NATURE, V421, P37 PAULY D, 1995, NATURE, V374, P255 PRENTICE IC, 1992, J BIOGEOGR, V19, P117 ROOT TL, 2003, NATURE, V421, P57 SMITH JB, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, P913 SMITH TM, 1992, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V21, P367 SOLOMON AM, 1990, LANDSCAPE ECOLOGICAL, P293 SWART RJ, 1998, GLOBAL CHANGE SCENAR, P193 THOMPSON LG, 2002, SCIENCE, V298, P589 VANHERK CM, 2002, LICHENOLOGIST 2, V34, P141 VANMINNEN JG, 2000, GLOB CHANGE BIOL, V6, P595 VELLINGA P, 1991, CLIMATE CHANGE, V18, P7 NR 29 TC 1 J9 GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANGE BP 219 EP 228 PY 2004 PD OCT VL 14 IS 3 GA 854EQ UT ISI:000223884300004 ER PT J AU Jallow, BP Barrow, MKA Leatherman, SP TI Vulnerability of the coastal zone of The Gambia to sea level rise and development of response strategies and adaptation options SO CLIMATE RESEARCH LA English DT Article C1 NATL ENVIRONM AGCY,BANJUL,GAMBIA. UNIV MARYLAND,DEPT GEOG,LAB COASTAL RES,COLLEGE PK,MD 20742. RP Jallow, BP, DEPT WATER RESOURCES,7 MARINA PARADE,BANJUL,GAMBIA. AB The coastal zone of The Gambia consists of 70 km open ocean coast and 200 km sheltered coast. Only about 20 km of the open coastline is significantly developed and this includes Banjul (the capital city), Bakau and Cape St. Mary, Fajara and the Tourism Development Area (TDA). Tourism is the most important economic sector in the coastal zone and contributes about 10% of the government revenue. Fisheries and agriculture are also important coastal industries. In this study the Aerial Videotape-assisted Vulnerability Analysis (AVVA) technique has been used to provide a detailed analysis of vulnerability to sea level rise, and adaptation strategies have been identified. The data used includes a video recording of the coastline, color infrared and black and white aerial photography, topographic maps, bathymetric maps, a geological map of The Gambia and still photographs. The data have been used to characterize the coastal zone into 9 geomorphological units, wherein the cultural and heritage sites of economic importance have been delineated and characterized according to their biophysical and economic importance. Future erosion rates have been projected by applying the Bruun Rule, and future total land loss due to inundation in response to global warming and accelerated sea level rise has been determined. The sea level rise scenarios considered are 0.2 m, 0.5 m, and 1.0 m per century. Inundation is estimated to be about 92.32 x 10(6) m(2) for a 1.0 m sea level rise, 45.89 x 10(6) m(2) for a 0.5 m sea level rise and 4.96 x 10(6) m(2) for a 0.2 m sea level rise. The greater part of this area lost will be wetlands and mangrove systems important for fish spawning areas and habitats for wildlife. Shoreline retreat is estimated to vary between about 6.8 m in cliffy areas to about 880 m for more flat and sandy areas based on the Bruun Rule. Population and physical structures at risk have been determined. Attempts have been made to report this loss in monetary terms, but firm figures are not yet available. Only one unit of the coastal zone has been evaluated. In this unit, it is expected that the capital city will be completely lost through both erosion and inundation within 50 to 60 yr with a total of 42000 persons displaced. Lands and physical structures to be lost are estimated at US$ 217 million. Response strategies and adaptation options identified include: innovative sand management, building and rehabilitation of groins, construction of revetments to protect important areas, construction of sea-walls/bulkheads, public outreach and awareness, building regulations and urban growth planning, wetland preservation and mitigation, and development of a coastal zone management plan. CR *GPA, 1991, TID DIST TABL BANJ R *IPCC, 1990, RESP STRAT AD ASS *UNEP, 1992, COAST ER GAMB DENNIS KC, 1995, J COASTAL RES, V14, P243 HANDS EB, 1983, HDB COASTAL PROCESSE, P167 LEATHERMAN SP, 1995, J COASTAL RES, V14, P15 NICHOLLS RJ, 1995, J COASTAL RES, V14, P26 PEPPER W, 1992, EMISSIONS SCENARIOS QUELENNEC RE, 1988, IDENTIFICATION COAST WHYTE WJ, 1988, GEOLOGY MINERAL RESO NR 10 TC 3 J9 CLIMATE RES BP 165 EP 177 PY 1996 PD FEB 19 VL 6 IS 2 GA UD549 UT ISI:A1996UD54900012 ER PT J AU Alexander, D TI The study of natural disasters, 1977-1997: Some reflections on a changing field of knowledge SO DISASTERS LA English DT Article C1 Univ Massachusetts, Dept Geosci, Amherst, MA 01003 USA. RP Alexander, D, Univ Massachusetts, Dept Geosci, Amherst, MA 01003 USA. AB As part of a series of papers to mark the 21st year of publication of Disasters, it is opportune to consider some of the changes that have occurred in the field it has covered so diligently for the last two decades. The paper begins with a brief review of the major natural disasters during this period and assesses their impact. It then considers the problem of how to define two key concepts: natural disaster and vulnerability, which remains an open question. The latter is one of the key determinants of the former. Next comes a review of what has occurred in the disasters field since the journal began publication, including some notes on the rise in vulnerability, the information technology revolution and the dilemmas of hazard mitigation. The following two sections assess, respectively, what hoped-for developments did not occur during the period studied and what assets were lost in the name of progress. For example, on the theoretical front, academic over-specialisation has predominated, while on the practical side there has been insufficient transfer of technology to where it is needed. The paper concludes that analyses of disaster need to become more sophisticated and multi-disciplinary and must take account of several forms of context within which developments take place. 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Univ Victoria, Dept Geog, Victoria, BC V8W 3P5, Canada. Univ Guelph, Dept Geog, Guelph, ON N1G 2W1, Canada. RP Bradshaw, B, Simon Fraser Univ, Dept Geog, Burnaby, BC V5A 1S6, Canada. AB Among other foci, recent research on adaptation to climatic variability and change has sought to evaluate the merit of adaptation generally, as well as the suitability of particular adaptations. Additionally, there is a need to better understand the likely uptake of adaptations. For example, diversification is one adaptation that has been identified as a potential farm-level response to climatic variability and change, but its adoption by farmers for this reason is not well understood. This paper serves two purposes. The first is to document the adoption of crop diversification in Canadian prairie agriculture for the period 1994-2002, reflect upon its strengths and limitations for managing a variety of risks, including climatic ones, and gauge its likely adoption by producers in response to anticipated climate change. The second purpose is to draw on this case to refine our current understanding of climate change adaptation more generally. Based upon data from over 15 000 operations, it was determined that individual farms have become more specialized in their cropping patterns since 1994, and this trend is unlikely to change in the immediate future, notwithstanding anticipated climate change and the known risk-reducing benefits of crop diversification. More broadly, the analysis suggests that 'suitable' and even 'possible' climate change adaptations need to be more rigorously assessed in order to understand their wider strengths and limitations. 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RP Baird, RC, NOAA, Natl Sea Grant Coll Program, 1315 EW Highway,SSMC3,Room 11716, Silver Spring, MD 20910 USA. AB Ecosystem restoration in highly complex, human-dominated estuaries rests on a strong conceptual foundation of sustainability, ecosystems, and adaptive management of human-induced environmental impacts. Successful application involves evaluating uncertainty, incorporating place-based information, and engaging diverse constituencies in the planning process. That means integration of technical knowledge with an understanding of the "cultural milieu" inherent in all estuaries, that is, the intensity of human activity and impacts plus socioeconomic factors relevant to restoration goals. Operational definitions of what constitutes acceptable ecosystem conditions and current baselines are critical yet rest in large measure on cultural values and socioeconomic considerations. Resources for long-term monitoring and research to assess performance and ecosystem condition are paramount. Unprecedented population growth promises additional stressors on estuarine environments worldwide, making maintenance of present conditions difficult. The art of good, practical ecosystem restoration as a management tool at multiple geographic scales promises to play a crucial role in sustainability goals. CR *CRS, 2001, RS20702 CRS LIB C *NCSE, 2002, 2 NAT C SCI POL ENV *NOAA, 2003, NEW PRIOR 21 CENT NO *NRC, 1992, REST AQ EC SCI TECHN *NRC, 1994, PRIOR COAST EC MAN *NRC, 1999, OUR COMM JOURN TRANS *PEW OC COMM, 2003, AM LIV OC CHART COUR *US EPA, 1997, EPA230B96003 *US EPA, 2002, EPA841R02001 *USCOP, 2004, IN PRESS PREL REP US ADLER JH, 2002, R WILLIAMS U LAW REV, V8, P9 BAIRD RC, 1996, ESTUARIES, V19, P320 BAIRD RC, 2002, SUSTAINABLE GULF MEX, P46 BAIRD RC, 2005, SUSTAINING LARGE MAR, P17 BEACH D, 2002, COASTAL SPRAWL EFFEC BRICKER SB, 1999, NATL ESTUARINE EUTRO BROWN K, 2003, FRONT ECOL ENVIRON, V1, P479 CICINSAIN B, 2000, FUTURE US OCEAN POLI CLARK WC, 2002, MEX CIT SYNTH WORKSH DAY JW, 1989, ESTUARINE ECOLOGY DEFRIES RS, 2004, FRONT ECOL ENVIRON, V2, P249 DUDA AM, 2002, OCEAN COAST MANAGE, V45, P797 GRIFFITH D, 1999, ESTUARYS GIFT ATLANT HEINZ, 2004, INNOVATION DESIGN IM KARLSON RH, 2004, NATURE, V429, P867 KATES RW, 2001, SCIENCE, V292, P641 KENNEDY D, 2002, RECOMMENDATIONS ACHI, P35 LEE KN, 1993, COMPASS GYROSCOPE IN LEVIN SA, 1999, FRAGILE DOMINION COM LINK JS, 2002, FISHERIES, V27, P18 LOCKWOOD JL, 2003, FRONT ECOL ENVIRON, V1, P462 MCGRATH D, 2000, ILLINOIS INDIANA SEA, P1 NIXON SW, 1992, ADV MARINE TECHNOLOG, V5, P57 ORBACH MK, 2002, FREEDOM SEAS OCEAN P PAULY D, 1995, TRENDS ECOL EVOL, V10, P430 PETERSON CH, 2003, SCIENCE, V302, P2082 ROE E, 2002, ECOSYSTEMS, V5, P509 SHERMAN K, 2002, GULF GUINEA LARGE MA, P9 SWART JAA, 2005, RESTOR ECOL, V13, P183 THAYER GW, 1992, RESTORING NATIONS MA THOM RM, 2005, RESTOR ECOL, V13, P193 TURNER RE, 2005, RESTOR ECOL, V13, P165 WALSH JJ, 1988, NATURE CONTINENTAL S WEINSTEIN MP, 2005, RESTOR ECOL, V13, P174 ZEDLER JB, 1996, PUBLICATION U CALIFO, V38 NR 45 TC 0 J9 RESTOR ECOL BP 154 EP 158 PY 2005 PD MAR VL 13 IS 1 GA 902YL UT ISI:000227392500019 ER PT J AU Redclift, M TI Sustainable development (1987-2005): An oxymoron comes of age SO SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT LA English DT Article C1 Univ London Kings Coll, Dept Geog, London WC2R 2LS, England. RP Redclift, M, Univ London Kings Coll, Dept Geog, The Strand, London WC2R 2LS, England. AB The paper examines the conceptual history of 'sustainable development', from the Brundtland Commission's definition in 1987 to the present day. It argues that the superficial consensus that has characterized much of the early debate has given way to a series of parallel but distinct discourses around sustainability. The underlying assumptions behind much of the discussion are assessed, as is the move, after the first Earth Summit (1992), to focus on rights, rather than needs, as the principal line of enquiry. This analytical attention to rights is linked to the neo-liberal economic agendas of the 1990s, and the growth of interest in congruent areas, including human security and the environment, social capital, critical natural capital and intellectual property rights. The paper argues that increasing attention to questions of biology and science studies has strengthened this 'rights-based' approach, as well as interest in the linkages between 'natural' and 'human' systems, including attention to questions of environmental justice. It is clear that issues of global environmental justice are as important as they were when the concept of 'sustainable development' was in its infancy, but the new material realities of science and the environment in the 21st century demand a re-engagement with their social consequences, something which is largely ignored by the (market) liberal consensus. Copyright (c) 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment. CR *BRUNDTL COMM, 1987, OUR COMM FUT *UN C ENV DEV, 1992, AG 21 *WWF, 1996, WWF 1995 GROUP FULL ADAMS WM, 1990, GREEN DEV ENV SUSTAI ADAMS WM, 2001, GREEN DEV AYRES RU, 1995, IND METABOLISM RESTR BARNETT J, 2001, MEANINGS ENV SECURIT BAUMANN Z, 1998, GLOBALISATION BEBBINGTON A, 2004, J DEV STUD, V40, P33 BECKER E, 1999, SUSTAINABILITY SOCIA BECKERMAN W, 1994, ENVIRON VALUE, V3, P191 BUNKER SG, 1996, SOC NATUR RESOUR, V9, P419 CASTELLS M, 2000, BRIT J SOCIOL, V51, P63 DEMERITT D, 1998, REMAKING REALITY NAT, P173 DOBSON A, 2000, ECONOMIST 0610 EKINS P, 2003, ECOL ECON, V44, P277 ESCOBAR A, 1996, LIBERATION ECOLOGIES, P46 ESTEVA G, 1999, CAPITAL CLASS, V68, P46 FINKLER K, 2000, EXPERIENCING NEW GEN HABERMAS J, 1971, THEORY PRACTICE HUBER J, 2000, J ENV POLICY PLANNIN, V10, P2 JACOBS M, 1991, GREEN EC JANICKE M, 1991, POLITICAL SYSTEMS CA JOHNSON RG, 2000, EXPORTING ENV US MUL JORDAN A, 1994, ENVIRONMENTALIST, V14, P23 LANGHELLE O, 2000, ENVIRON VALUE, V9, P295 LATOUR B, 1993, WE HAVE NEVER BEEN M LEACH M, 2000, DEV CHANGE, V31 MARTINEZALIER J, 1995, NEW LEFT REV, V9, P295 MASON M, 1999, ENV DEMOCRACY MCAFEE K, 1999, ENVIRON PLANN D, V17, P48 MEADOWS DH, 1972, LIMITS GROWTH MILBRATH LW, 1994, FUTURES, V26, P117 MILLER D, 1998, FAIRNESS FUTURITY MOL A, 1994, SOC STUD SCI, V24, P641 MOL A, 2001, GLOBALISATION ENV RE MURPHY DF, 1997, CO PARTNERS BUSINESS NORGAARD RB, 1988, FUTURES, V20, P606 OWENS S, 1994, T I BRIT GEOGR, V19, P439 PEARCE D, 1991, BLUEPRINT, V2 PRAKASH S, 2001, BUSINESS STRATEGY EN, V10, P286 REDCLIFT M, 1993, ENVIRON VALUE, V2, P3 REDCLIFT MR, 1987, SUSTAINABLE DEV EXPL REDCLIFT MR, 1996, CHEWING GUM FORTUNES ROBERTS P, 1994, REG STUD, V28, P781 RYDIN Y, 1995, AREA, V27, P369 SCHMIDHEINY S, 1992, CHANGING COURSE GLOB TOURAINE A, 2003, CURR SOCIOL, V51, P123 URRY J, 2000, BRIT J SOCIOL, V51, P185 VOGLER J, 2000, GLOBAL COMMONS ENV T WELFORD R, 1996, EARTHSCAN READER BUS WESTING AH, 1999, ENVIRON CONSERV, V26, P261 NR 52 TC 1 J9 SUSTAIN DEV BP 212 EP 227 PY 2005 PD OCT VL 13 IS 4 GA 977EI UT ISI:000232784800002 ER PT J AU Wu, SY Yarnal, B Fisher, A TI Vulnerability of coastal communities to sea-level rise: a case study of Cape May County, New Jersey, USA SO CLIMATE RESEARCH LA English DT Article C1 Penn State Univ, Dept Geog, University Pk, PA 16802 USA. Penn State Univ, Ctr Integrated Reg Assessment, University Pk, PA 16802 USA. Penn State Univ, Dept Agr Econ & Rural Sociol, University Pk, PA 16802 USA. Penn State Univ, Ctr Integrated Reg Assessment, University Pk, PA 16802 USA. RP Wu, SY, Penn State Univ, Dept Geog, University Pk, PA 16802 USA. AB This study demonstrates how sea-level rise increases the vulnerability of coastal communities to flooding associated with coastal storms. The case study applies a GIS-based methodology to assess the vulnerability of Cape May County, New Jersey, to flood hazards caused by both riverine flooding and coastal storm surges. For storm events of differing intensities, it first identifies areas that will be inundated and how they will change with projected sea-level rise. It then assesses the social vulnerability of the county, taking into account factors such as age, gender, race, income and housing conditions. Finally, it combines physical and social vulnerabilities to create a picture of the county's present overall vulnerability, as well as how this will change with projected sea-level rise. To account for uncertainties in projections, possible ranges of both population growth and sea-level rise are incorporated in low, medium and high scenarios. The results show that sea-level rise will increase the vulnerability of the county to flood hazards considerably by increasing the areas that are exposed to the highest flood risk, hence increasing the number of critical facilities, properties, and people to the risk of flooding. Comparing the upper- and lower-bound scenarios indicates that poorly managed development could increase the county's vulnerability to flooding. These results suggest, that decision-makers could reduce vulnerability by making choices that steer development away from high-risk areas. 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RP Keys, E, Arizona State Univ, Tempe, AZ 85282 USA. AB Market intermediaries play important roles in the development of tropical-forest frontiers but are often overlooked in the assessment of land-change dynamics. Consistent with research beyond land-change studies, intermediaries are found to be a pivotal element in land-use and land-cover change in southeastern Mexico. They have stimulated commercial chili cultivation in this development frontier, providing transportation and other services to smallholders who could otherwise not enter the chili market. This role comes at the cost of a near monopoly on chili marketing. The various roles played by these intermediaries, or coyotes, the means by which they operate, and the consequences for smallholders and land use are detailed for the Calakmul Municipality, Campeche, Mexico. 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AB The questioning of the nineteenth century baseline for anthropogenic contributions to global warming is important for its role in a wider debate about the ''framing'' of this problem between the more-developed and less-developed countries of the world. An analysis of this debate raises such potentially important questions as: (1) How do historical/developmental differences among nations affect global warming? (2) How does the prior history of one nation affect the subsequent history of another with respect to global warming? And (3), what are the consequences of the separation in time (and space) of the capacity to exacerbate versus mitigate global warming? The larger question underlying all of these is: What is the relationship between differences in national histories, the problem of global warming, and the development of a global system capable of addressing it? CR 1990, LOGGING NATIVES SARA 1990, WORLD RESOURCES 1990 AGARWAL A, 1991, GLOBAL WARMING UNEQU AHUJA DR, 1992, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V2, P83 BATESON G, 1958, NAVEN BATESON G, 1972, STEPS ECOLOGY MIND BONGAARTS J, 1992, POPUL DEV REV, V18, P299 BRECKENRIDGE LP, 1992, TENN L REV, V59, P735 BROOKFIELD H, 1992, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V2, P93 BROSIUS P, 1991, JUN NEW YORK BOT GAR CLARK WC, 1985, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V7, P5 DIXON RK, 1994, SCIENCE, V263, P185 DOVE MR, UNPUB AGROFORESTRY S DOVE MR, 1993, ENVIRON CONSERV, V20, P17 DOVE MR, 1993, ENVIRON CONSERV, V20, P56 DOVE MR, 1993, ETHNOLOGY, V40, P145 FLINT EP, 1991, CAN J FOREST RES, V21, P91 HAMMOND AL, 1990, NATURE, V347, P705 HAMMOND AL, 1991, ENVIRONMENT, V33, P11 HAYES P, 1993, GLOBAL GREENHOUSE RE, P319 HOUGHTON JT, 1990, CLIMATE CHANGE IPCC HOUGHTON RA, 1990, EARTH TRANSFORMED HU, P393 JODHA NS, 1992, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V2, P97 KEMPTON W, 1993, ENVIRONMENT, V35, P16 MCCULLY P, 1991, ECOLOGIST, V21, P157 MITCHELL JK, 1992, GLOBAL ENV CHANGE, V2, P82 REDELIFT M, 1992, GLOBAL ENV CHANGE, V2, P90 SMITH KR, 1991, AMBIO, V20, P95 SMITH KR, 1991, ENVIRONMENT, V33, P42 SONGQIAO Z, 1992, GLOBAL ENV CHANGE, V2, P93 SUBAK S, 1991, ENVIRONMENT, V33, P2 THERY D, 1992, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V2, P88 WATERSTONE M, 1993, ENVIRON MANAGE, V17, P141 WOFSY SC, 1993, SCIENCE, V260, P1314 NR 34 TC 2 J9 CHEMOSPHERE BP 1063 EP 1077 PY 1994 PD SEP VL 29 IS 5 GA PG085 UT ISI:A1994PG08500013 ER PT J AU Ghaffari, A Cook, HF Lee, HC TI Climate change and winter wheat management: A modelling scenario for south-eastern England SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 Univ London, Imperial Coll Wye, Dept Agr Sci, Ashford TN25 5AH, Kent, England. Dryland Agr Res Inst, Maragheh, Iran. RP Cook, HF, Univ London, Imperial Coll Wye, Dept Agr Sci, Ashford TN25 5AH, Kent, England. AB Crop models are useful tools for assessing the impact of climate change on crop production. The dynamic crop-growth model, CERES-Wheat is used to examine crop management responses, including yield, under six climate change scenarios for the years 2025 and 2050 on the Estate of Imperial College at Wye, Kent, U. K. Sensitivity analysis shows a dry matter yield decrease in response to increases in temperature alone. CERES-Wheat was then constrained to assess the crop performance under water-limited production scenarios with different soils, and the results show that crop grain yield actually increases, largely due to CO2 fertilisation leading to increased rates of photosynthesis. Different management practices (planting dates and nitrogen application) were applied to find the best adaptation strategies. In general, 'early' sowing (10th September) had the highest simulated yield, and 'late' sowing (10th November) the lowest. For the soils tested, the highest and sustained crop production was obtained from Hamble soils (silt loam) compared with either the Fyfield (sandy) or Denchworth (clay). Adding nitrogen and other fertilisers would likely be necessary to take full advantage of the CO2 fertilisation effect and to compensate, in some cases, for yield losses caused by climate change where water shortage becomes serious. CR *AFRC, 1992, ENV CHANG 150 YEARS *CLIM CHANG IMP RE, 1996, REV POT EFF CLIM CHA *CLIM CHANG IMP UK, 1998, AG ASS ACT *GCCIP, 1997, GLOB CLIM CHANG INF *INT PAN CLIM CHAN, 1996, CLIM CHANG 1995 SCI *INT PAN CLIM CHAN, 2001, CLIM CHANG 1995 SCI *NIAB, 1997, CER VAR HDB *UK CLIM IMP PROGR, 1998, CLIM CHANG SCEN UK S *WORLD MET ORG, 2000, 913 WMO, P13 ALEXANDROV VA, 1997, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V36, P135 ALLEN LH, 1996, GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANG, P65 BANNAYAN M, 1999, FIELD CROP RES, V62, P85 BROWN RA, 1997, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V83, P171 BUTTERFIELD RP, 2000, CLIMATE CHANGE CLIMA, P445 DECKER WL, 1994, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V69, P9 DONALDSON A, 1994, EFFECTS REFORM COMMO GHAFFARI A, 2001, EUR J AGRON, V15, P231 GOUDRIAAN J, 1983, NETH J AGR SCI, V31, P157 HAMMER GL, 1996, PLANT ADAPTATION CRO, P419 HARRISON PA, 1996, CLIMATE RES, V7, P225 HUNT LA, 1998, UNDERSTANDING OPTION, P9 HUTLEYBULL P, 1993, ANAL SOCIOECONOMIC I JAME YW, 1996, CAN J PLANT SCI, V76, P9 JAMIESON PD, 1998, FIELD CROP RES, V55, P23 JONES JW, 1993, SYSTEMS APPROACHES A, P459 KEELING CD, 1998, ATMOSPHERIC CO2 CONC KENNY GJ, 1993, 2 U OXF ENV CHANG UN LUTZE JL, 1998, PLANT CELL ENVIRON, V21, P1133 MATTHEWS R, 2000, APPL CROP SOIL SIMUL MONTEITH JL, 1981, Q J ROY METEOR SOC, V107, P749 MONTEITH JL, 1996, AGRON J, V88, P695 MOOT DJ, 1996, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V33, P351 PARRY ML, 1993, EFFECT CLIMATE CHANG, P1 PEIRIS DR, 1996, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V79, P271 ROSENZWEIG C, 1998, UNDERSTANDING OPTION, P267 SEMANOV MA, 1993, EFFECT CLIMATE CHANG, P121 SEMENOV MA, 1996, CLIMATE RES, V7, P271 SIONIT N, 1981, AGRON J, V73, P1023 SYLVESTERBRADLE.R, 1991, ASSESSMENTS WHEAT GR, V1 SYS IC, 1991, LAND EVALUATION 1 TENG PS, 1998, UNDERSTANDING OPTION, P221 TOTOLO O, 1995, THESIS U LONDON TUBIELLO FN, 1995, AGR SYST, V49, P135 WANG YP, 1996, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V79, P9 WASSENAAR T, 1999, CLIMATE RES, V11, P209 WATSON RT, 1998, REGIONAL IMPACTS CLI, V1, P1 WOLF J, 1993, EFFECT CLIMATE CHANG, P93 WOLF J, 1996, CLIMATE RES, V7, P253 NR 48 TC 0 J9 CLIMATIC CHANGE BP 509 EP 533 PY 2002 PD DEC VL 55 IS 4 GA 605GP UT ISI:000178669600005 ER PT J AU SHETYE, SR GOUVEIA, AD PATHAK, MC TI VULNERABILITY OF THE INDIAN COASTAL REGION TO DAMAGE FROM SEA-LEVEL RISE SO CURRENT SCIENCE LA English DT Article RP SHETYE, SR, NATL INST OCEANOG,PANAJI 403004,GOA,INDIA. CR 1979, TRACKS STORMS DEPRES 1981, ENCY BRITANNICA MICR, V1, P350 1981, ENCY BRITANNICA MICR, V5, P1000 1987, INDIAN TIDE TABLES 1 AHMED E, 1985, WORLDS COASTLINE, P741 BARNETT TP, 1983, COASTAL ZONE 83, P2777 CHARNEY J, 1979, CARBON DIOXIDE CLIMA EARATTUPUZHA JJ, 1980, GSI SPECIAL PUBLICAT, V5, P83 EMANUEL KA, 1987, NATURE, V326, P483 EMERY KO, 1989, J COASTAL RES, V5, P489 GARDINER J, 1903, FAUNA GEOGRAPHY MALD, V1, P27 GORNITZ V, 1982, SCIENCE, V215, P1611 HANSEN JE, 1984, GREENHOUSE EFFECT SE, P57 HOFFMAN J, 1983, PROJECTING FUTURE SE HOFFMAN JS, 1984, GREENHOUSE EFFECT SE JOHN FB, 1989, REV GEOPHYS, V27, P115 MORAES FR, 1981, ENCY BRITANNICA MACR, V9, P276 MUTHIAH S, 1987, SOCIAL EC ATLAS INDI TITUS JG, 1984, GREENHOUSE EFFECT SE, P1 NR 19 TC 2 J9 CURR SCI BP 152 EP 156 PY 1990 PD FEB 10 VL 59 IS 3 GA CW081 UT ISI:A1990CW08100009 ER PT J AU Me-Bar, Y Valdez, F TI On the vulnerability of the ancient Maya society to natural threats SO JOURNAL OF ARCHAEOLOGICAL SCIENCE LA English DT Article C1 Univ Texas, Dept Anthropol, Austin, TX 78712 USA. RP Me-Bar, Y, 8 Gedera Stairs, IL-34722 Haifa, Israel. AB The concepts of disaster, vulnerability and societal vulnerability as well as natural threats that are relevant to the Maya area are discussed. Ancient Maya societies were vulnerable to natural threats, such as droughts, diseases and volcanic eruptions. Some of the factors that may be considered as having influenced Maya vulnerability are discussed, and a method is proposed for ascribing a numerical value to the vulnerability of a given society to a specific threat at a particular time. To apply the method, it is necessary to choose a set of relevant parameters and to assign them numerical values. The weight of each of these parameters in the overall vulnerability also needs to be assessed. The numerical value of the vulnerability is defined as a relatively simple combination of these values. Since there are no precise means for measuring parameters such as "water scarcity" or "external threats", the proposed method is based on estimates. Simplistic examples are presented to illustrate the use of this method for a presumed threat of a severe three years drought. Using a concise set of parameters and subjective estimates of their values and their weights, the average vulnerability to the presumed threat of Maya society as a whole, at the onset of the "Hiatus" (ca. AD 540) is estimated to be similar to 40% higher than that in the Late Pre-Classic (AD 100-250). Toward the end of the Late Classic (AD 800-900), it is estimated to be similar to 80% higher. The method can also be used to assess numerical values for the vulnerability of specific sites to a given threat, relative to a specific reference, and El Mirador at the Late Pre-classic transition is used as an example. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 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Agr Univ Norway, Noragric, N-1432 As, Norway. Univ E Anglia, Sch Dev Studies, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. Norwegian Inst Nat Res, Div Man Environm Studies, N-0315 Oslo, Norway. RP Adger, WN, Univ E Anglia, Sch Environm Sci, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. AB In the past decade international and national environmental policy and action have been dominated by issues generally defined as global environmental problems. In this article, we identify the major discourses associated with four global environmental issues: deforestation, desertification, biodiversity use and climate change. These discourses are analysed in terms of their messages, narrative structures and policy prescriptions. We find striking parallels in the nature and structure of the discourses and in their illegibility at the local scale. In each of the four areas there is a global environmental management discourse representing a technocentric worldview by which blueprints based on external policy interventions can solve global environmental dilemmas. Each issue also has a contrasting populist discourse that portrays local actors as victims of external interventions bringing about degradation and exploitation. The managerial discourses dominate in all four issues, but important inputs are also supplied to political decisions from populist discourses. There are, in addition, heterodox ideas and denial claims in each of these areas, to a greater or lesser extent, in which the existence or severity of the environmental problem are questioned. We present evidence from location-specific research which does not fit easily with the dominant managerialist nor with the populist discourses. The research shows that policy-making institutions are distanced from the resource users and that local scale environmental management moves with a distinct dynamic and experiences alternative manifestations of environmental change and livelihood imperatives. 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HUMAN CHOICE CLIMATE, V1, P265 TURNER MD, 1999, SOC NATUR RESOUR, V12, P643 WARREN A, 1992, ASSESSMENT DESERTIFI WIGLEY TML, 1996, NATURE, V379, P240 WILSON EO, 1992, DIVERSITY LIFE YAPA L, 1996, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V86, P707 NR 133 TC 5 J9 DEVELOP CHANGE BP 681 EP 715 PY 2001 PD SEP VL 32 IS 4 GA 475NP UT ISI:000171171000004 ER PT J AU Parr, TW Sier, ARJ Battarbee, RW Mackay, A Burgess, J TI Detecting environmental change: science and society - perspectives on long-term research and monitoring in the 21st century SO SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT LA English DT Article C1 Ctr Ecol & Hydrol, Grange Over Sands LA5 0EY, Cumbria, England. Univ Coll London, Environm Change Res Ctr, London WC1H 0AP, England. Univ Coll London, Dept Geog, London WC1H 0AP, England. RP Parr, TW, Ctr Ecol & Hydrol, Merlewood Windermere Rd, Grange Over Sands LA5 0EY, Cumbria, England. AB Widespread concern over the state of the environment and the impacts of anthropogenic activities on ecosystem services and functions has highlighted the need for high-quality, long-term datasets for detecting and understanding environmental change. In July 2001, an international conference reviewed progress in the field of long-term ecosystem research and monitoring (LTERM). Examples are given which demonstrate the need for long-term environmental monitoring and research, for palaeoecological reconstructions of past environments and for applied use of historical records that inform us of past environmental conditions. LTERM approaches are needed to provide measures of baseline conditions and for informing decisions on ecosystem management and environmental policy formulation. They are also valuable in aiding the understanding of the processes of environmental change, including the integrated effects of natural and anthropogenic drivers and pressures, recovery from stress and resilience of species, populations, communities and ecosystems. The authors argue that, in order to realise the full potential of LTERM approaches, progress must be made in four key areas: (i) increase the number, variety and scope of LTERM activities to help define the operational range of ecosystems; (ii) greater integration of research, monitoring, modelling, palaeoecological reconstruction and remote sensing to create a broad-scale early warning system of environmental change; (iii) development of inter-disciplinary approaches which draw upon social and environmental science expertise to understand the factors determining the vulnerability and resilience of the nature-society system to change; and (iv) more and better use of LTERM data and information to inform the public and policymakers and to provide guidance on sustainable development. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. 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RP Phoofolo, P, Univ Transkei, Dept Hist, Umtata, South Africa. AB Between 1896 and 1898, a devastating cattle panzootic of rinderpest killed over 95 per cent of African herds throughout Southern Africa. This obliteration of the bastion of African societies' economy threatened to provoke an unprecedented rural crisis. The rinderpest was equivalent to the 'Great Wall Street Crash' in that it threatened to wipe out the only capital of the people and to restrict future capital accumulation. Despite its acknowledged importance in the unfolding of historical processes in Southern Africa in the closing decades of the nineteenth century, this catastrophic panzootic remains an under-researched topic. This article traces the history of the rinderpest and examines the responses of the victims in their attempts to survive the catastrophe. The findings suggest that despite widespread negative impact, the rinderpest did not precipitate a major famine. 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WOOKEY, 1898, COMMUNICATION 1110 WORBOYS M, 1991, MED HIST, V35, P308 WRIGLEY TM, 1981, CLIMATE HIST STUDIES YAMANOUCHI K, 1980, JAPANESE J MED SCI B, V33, P53 NR 218 TC 0 J9 J S AFR STUD BP 503 EP 527 PY 2003 PD JUN VL 29 IS 2 GA 684AB UT ISI:000183182300010 ER PT J AU Khandlhela, M May, J TI Poverty, vulnerability and the impact of flooding in the Limpopo Province, South Africa SO NATURAL HAZARDS LA English DT Article C1 Univ KwaZulu Natal, Sch Dev Studies, Durban, South Africa. RP Khandlhela, M, Univ KwaZulu Natal, Sch Dev Studies, King George VA Ave, Durban, South Africa. AB The article evaluates household vulnerability after the 2000 flood in two poor communities of the Limpopo Province, South Africa. The study analyses the forms of vulnerability which disasters such as floods present. Using data gathered from a survey of households, the study presents the impacts, coping and adapting strategies of households after the 2000 flood. The article argues that beyond the concern over socio-economic circumstances as the major determinant of household vulnerability, the management of the disaster can serve to perpetuate vulnerability. CR 2000, MAIL GUARDIAN 0316 2000, SOWETAN 0218 *STAT S AFR, 1999, PEOPL S AFR POP CENS *STAT S AFR, 2000, MEAS POV S AFR *UNDP, 2003, S AFR HUM DEV REP 20 *UNDP, 2004, HUM DEV IND 2003 *WORLD BANK, 2000, WORLD DEV REP 2000 2 BLAIKIE PM, 1994, RISK NATURAL HAZARDS, V1, P1 CANNON T, 1994, DISASTERS DEV ENV, P13 CHAMBERS R, 1989, IDS B, V20, P1 DAVIES S, 1996, ADAPTABLE LIVELIHOOD DERCON S, 2001, 20012 WORLD I DEV EC DEVEREUX S, 1999, 373 IDS GORDON D, 1999, INT GLOSSARY POVERTY JORDAN HR, 2003, THESIS U KWAZULUNATA MASEKO S, 2000, SOWETAN MAR MAY J, 1997, SOC INDIC RES, V41, P95 MAY J, 2000, POVERTY INEQUALITY S MILLER K, 1993, EVENT CONSEQUENCE VU MOSER C, 1996, ENV SUSTAINABLE DEV, V8 NGWANE K, 2002, DEV S AFR, V19 NTULI A, S AFRICAN HLTH REV 2 VARLEY A, 1994, DISASTERS DEV ENV WISNER B, 2000, UNPUB SMALL FLOODS H NR 24 TC 0 J9 NATURAL HAZARDS BP 275 EP 287 PY 2006 PD OCT VL 39 IS 2 GA 088GI UT ISI:000240799800009 ER PT J AU Allenby, BR TI Environmental security: Concept and implementation SO INTERNATIONAL POLITICAL SCIENCE REVIEW LA English DT Article C1 AT&T, Warren, NJ 07059 USA. Columbia Univ, Sch Int & Publ Affairs, New York, NY 10027 USA. Univ Calif Lawrence Livermore Natl Lab, Livermore, CA 94550 USA. RP Allenby, BR, AT&T, 20 Independence Bvd, Warren, NJ 07059 USA. AB Environmental security, a relatively new and still somewhat contentious concept, may be defined as the intersection of environmental and national security considerations at a national policy level. It may be understood as a result of several important trends. One, of course, is the breakdown of the bipolar geopolitical structure that characterized the cold war. A second, less visible to many in the policy community, is the shift of environment from compliance and remediation to strategic for society. This process is occurring at many different scales, from implementation of Design for Environment methodologies within firms, to integration of environmental and trade considerations in the World Trade Organization (WTO). Taken together, these trends suggest that environmental security may be an important evolution of national state and international policy systems. If this is to occur, however, the concept must be defined with sufficient rigor to support an operational program. CR *CTR STRAT INT STU, 1996, NUCL BLACK MARK *EX OFF PRES, 1996, NAT SEC STRAT ENG EN *L LIV NAT LAB, 1996, UCRLLR124625 *NSTC, 1995, NAT SEC SCI TECHN ST *UCAR, 1992, REP NAT OUR CHANG PL *US DEP DEF, 1995, REP DEF SCI BOARD TA *US DEP STAT, 1997, 10470 US DEP STAT ALLENBY BR, 1994, GREENING IND ECOSYST ALLENBY BR, 1998, ENV THREATS NATL SEC ALLENBY BR, 1998, J IND ECOLOGY, V2, P45 ALLENBY BR, 1999, IND ECOLOGY POLICY F BRADLEY DJ, 1996, PHYS TODAY, V49, P40 CALDER KE, 1996, FOREIGN AFF, V75, P55 CHRISTOPHER W, 1996, COMMUNICATION 0409 COOPER R, 1996, POSTMODERN STATE WOR DRUCKER PF, 1997, FOREIGN AFF, V76, P159 FLEISHMAN R, 1995, NATL SECURITY STUDIE, P11 GIZEWSKI P, 1996, ENV SCARCITY VIOLENT GLEICK PH, 1993, INT SECURITY, V18, P79 GOLDSTONE JA, 1996, ENV CHANGE SECURITY, V2, P66 GRAEDEL TE, 1995, IND ECOLOGY GUNDERSON LH, 1995, BARRIERS BRIDGES REN, V1, P1 HARTWELL RV, 1994, ENV LAW REV, V24, P10109 HARVEY D, 1996, JUSTICE NATURE GEOGR HOMERDIXON TF, 1993, SCI AM FEB, P38 HOMERDIXON TF, 1994, INT SECURITY, V19, P5 HOWARD P, 1995, ENV SCARCITY VIOLENT JUDT T, 1997, FOREIGN AFF, V76, P95 KELLY K, 1995, ENV SCARCITY VIOLENT LIVERMAN DM, 1991, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V1, P351 LUGAR RG, 1999, FOREIGN AFF, V78, P88 LUHMANN N, 1989, ECOLOGICAL COMMUNICA MATHEWS JT, 1989, FOREIGN AFF, V68, P162 MATHEWS JT, 1997, FOREIGN AFF, V76, P50 MCELROY MB, 1989, SCIENCE, V243, P763 MOREHOUSE ET, 1994, GREENING IND ECOSYST PERCIVAL V, 1995, ENV SCARCITY VIOLENT RAUL AC, 1993, NATURAL RESOURCES EN, V8 RENNER M, 1989, 89 WORLDW REPETTO R, 1993, WRI ISSUES IDEAS JUL ROMM JJ, 1996, ATLANTIC MONTHLY APR, P57 SASSENS S, 1996, LOSING CONTROL SOVER SOCOLOW R, 1994, IND ECOLOGY GLOBAL C STAGLIANO VA, 1995, RESOURCES SPR, P6 TURNER BL, 1990, EARTH TRANSFORMED HU WRISTON WB, 1997, FOREIGN AFF, V76, P172 NR 46 TC 5 J9 INT POLIT SCI REV BP 5 EP 21 PY 2000 PD JAN VL 21 IS 1 GA 276MD UT ISI:000084880800001 ER PT J AU Turner, MD TI Drought, domestic budgeting and wealth distribution in Sahelian households SO DEVELOPMENT AND CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 Univ Wisconsin, Madison, WI 53706 USA. RP Turner, MD, Univ Wisconsin, 384 Sci Hall, Madison, WI 53706 USA. AB Over the past twenty-five years, Sahelian households have experienced recurrent harvest failure and greater reliance on remittances from migratory wage labour. Household subsistence has become less dependent on household grain stores and more on the liquidation of individual wealth stores. This study investigates how these broader changes have affected struggles between household members over obligations to support the household in the Zarmaganda region of western Niger. As the land-derived leverage of male patriarchs has declined and household dependence on individual wealth stores has increased, domestic budgeting has become more contested. Household heads make case-by-case moral claims on other household members during times of grain shortage. Women and subordinate males invoke Islamic law, which accords primary provisioning responsibility to the household head, to protect their individual wealth in times of grain deficit. This article investigates the nature of these budgetary struggles, showing how individuals' decisions to contribute individual wealth to support the household are best understood as highly situated, affected not only by the specific material conditions of the household but also the interplay of the moral, structural, and individualistic imperatives that derive from one's position within the household. Using reconstructed livestock wealth histories for the members of fifty-four households in western Niger, this study investigates the material consequences of these struggles. Male heads of corporate households, the historic managers of the household's land and agricultural labour, have lost wealth relative to their wives and married male subordinates since the drought of 1984. CR AGARWAL B, 1994, J PEASANT STUD, V22, P81 BERNSTEIN H, 1978, REV AFRICAN POLITICA, V10, P60 BERRY S, 1993, NO CONDITION IS PERM CARNEY J, 1991, SIGNS, V16, P651 CARNEY JA, 1992, DEV CHANGE, V23, P67 CHARLICK RB, 1991, NIGER PERSONAL RULE CHAYANOV AV, 1966, THEORY PEASANT EC CISSOKO SM, 1968, B IFAN B, V3, P806 CLOUD K, 1986, WOMEN FARMERS AFRICA, P19 COLES C, 1991, HAUSA WOMEN 20 CENTU, P163 COOPER B, 1997, MARRIAGE MARADI GEND DESARDAN JPO, 1984, SOC SONGHAY ZARMA NI DIARRA FA, 1971, FEMMES AFRICAINES DE DIARRA FA, 1974, MODERN MIGRATIONS W, P226 DICKO MS, 1988, RECHERCHES SYSTEME A DOI AR, 1990, WOMEN SHARIAH DUPICQ A, 1931, B COMITE ETUDES HIST, V14, P461 DWYER D, 1988, HOME DIVIDED WOMEN I FOLBRE N, 1988, HOME DIVIDED WOMEN I, P248 GREY L, 1999, AFRICAN STUDIES REV, V42, P15 GUYER J, 1988, HOME DIVIDED WOMEN I, P155 GUYER JI, 1987, DEV CHANGE, V18, P197 HAMA B, 1967, HIST TRADITIONELLE P HILL P, 1972, RURAL HAUSA VILLAGE HILL P, 1975, CHANGING SOCIAL STRU, P119 LEWIS JVD, 1979, DESCENDANTS CROPS 2 MACKINTOSH M, 1989, GENDER CLASS RURAL T MCINTIRE J, 1989, MILLET SYSTEM W NIGE MEILLASSOUX C, 1981, MAIDENS MEAL MONEY MOORE H, 1994, CUTTING TREES GENDER MORTIMORE MJ, 1989, ADAPTING DROUGHT FAR NGAIDO T, 1996, THESIS U WISCONSIN M PAINTER T, 1994, AFRICAN POPULATION C, P122 PEDERSEN J, 1995, POP STUD-J DEMOG, V49, P111 RAULIN H, 1963, ETUDES NIGERIENNES, V14 REARDON T, 1988, WORLD DEV, V16, P1065 ROCHELEAU D, 1996, FEMINIST POLITICAL E ROUCH J, 1961, SOCIAL CHANGE MODERN, P300 ROWELL DP, 1995, Q J ROY METEOR SOC, V121, P669 SCHROEDER RA, 1999, SHADY PRACTICES AGRO SEN AK, 1990, PERSISTENT INEQUALIT, P123 SEN AK, 1990, POLITICAL EC HUNGER, V1, P34 SHIPTON P, 1995, MONEY MATTERS INSTAB, P245 SIVAKUMAR MVK, 1993, AGROCLIMATOLOGIE AFR STARR MA, 1987, AFRICA, V57, P29 STREICKER AJ, 1980, BEING ZARMA SCARCITY SWINTON SM, 1988, HUM ECOL, V16, P123 TURNER MD, 1999, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V89, P191 VAUGHAN M, 1985, PAST PRESENT, V108, P177 WATTS MJ, 1983, SILENT VIOLENCE FOOD WATTS MJ, 1993, PROG HUM GEOG, V17, P43 WHITEHEAD A, 1981, MARRIAGE MARKET WOME, P88 NR 52 TC 1 J9 DEVELOP CHANGE BP 1009 EP 1035 PY 2000 PD NOV VL 31 IS 5 GA 372JU UT ISI:000165231200004 ER PT J AU Ioris, AAR TI Water resources development in the Sao Francisco River Basin (Brazil): Conflicts and management perspectives SO WATER INTERNATIONAL LA English DT Article C1 Univ Aberdeen, Dept Geog, Aberdeen AB24 3UF, Scotland. RP Ioris, AAR, Univ Aberdeen, Dept Geog, Elphinstone Rd, Aberdeen AB24 3UF, Scotland. AB Water scarcity is matter of growing concern in Brazil, especially in the semi-arid, inland area of the Northeast, where the Sao Francisco River flows. This paper concentrates on the relations between the concrete experience of water resources development and the remaining demands for efficient water management in that river basin. The emphasis is on its Sub-Middle section, which since 1948 has been the preferential area for irrigation projects and hydropower generation. Recent modifications in the Brazilian legislation provide for a new approach to water resources policy, which is in favor of more decentralized and proactive forms of water management, In spite of such institutional evolution, conservative political groups in the Sao Francisco River Basin have put obstacles before the transformation of established practices. In addition, there are other structural limitations contributing to hinder the adoption of a more comprehensive framework of water management. Resulting water conflicts have raised increasing demands for proper attention to the social, economic and environmental requirements of the sustainable management of water. The requisites for that go beyond the water question itself because they involve broader political and socio-economic controversies. At the local level, priority must be given to measures aimed at achieving water efficiency and conservation. It is fundamental to address the reduction of human vulnerability to climatic risks and to adopt alternatives of better utilization of water resources. CR *ARIDAS PROJ, 1995, NORD UM ESTR DES SUS *CODEVASF, 1989, PLAN DIR DES BAC SAO *CODEVASF, 1996, PLAN SUST DEV SAO FR *CODEVASF, 1999, VAL SAO FRANC *DNAEE, 1983, DIAGN UT REC HIDR BA *ELETROBRAS, 1999, POT HIDR BRAS 1998 *IBGE BRAZ I GEOGR, 1991, CENS DEM 1991 *MI MIN NAT INT, 1999, PROJ SAO FRANC *MI MIN NAT INT, 2000, PLAN REV HIDR AMB BA *PLANVASF, 1989, PROGR SET EN ANDRADE MG, 1986, THESIS UNICAMP ARAUJO JT, 1995, APRECIACAO CRITICA D AURELI A, 1999, AFERS INT, V45, P169 BAER W, 1995, BRAZILIAN EC GROWTH BARKER R, 1999, WATER SCARCITY POVER BEEKMAN GB, 1998, INT J WATER RESOURCE, V14, P353 CAGNIN JU, 2000, COMMUNICATION CALVERT P, 1998, WATER RESOURCE MANAG CLARKE R, 1991, WATER INT CRISIS COLLINS JL, 1991, 80 IDA DOUROJEANNI A, 1994, POLITICAS PUBLICAS D FALKENMARK M, 1997, HYDROLOG SCI J, V42, P451 FALKENMARK M, 1997, PHILOS T ROY SOC B, V352, P929 FURTADO C, 1984, REV EC POLITICA, V4, P5 GASQUES JG, 1995, DESENVOLVIMENTO SUST GENZ F, 1998, P S INT GEST REC HID GISCHLER C, 1984, NATURE RESOURCES, V20, P11 GOIS JA, 1992, TEXTO DISCUSSAO GOMES GM, 1995, TEXTO DISCUSSAO HALL AL, 1978, DROUGHT IRRIGATION N KELMAN J, 1997, SUSTAINING OUR WATER KETTELHUT JTS, 1998, P S INT GEST REC HID KHAN AS, 1995, DESENVOLVIMENTO SUST KLOHN W, 1999, AFERS INT, V45, P105 KRAUSE G, 1997, MEIO AMBIENTE DESENV LELE S, 1999, SUSTAINABLE USE BIOM LIVINGSTONE I, 1993, J AGR ECON, V44, P82 MAGALHAES AR, 1994, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V4, P275 NETTO AVM, 1992, P INT C IMP CLIM VAR PONCE VM, 1995, J SOIL WATER CONSERV, V50, P422 REDWOOD J, 1993, WORLD BANK APPROACHE ROMANO PA, 1999, MANAGEMENT LATIN AM SAITO I, 1995, FRAGILE TROPICS LATI SALATI E, 1999, AGUAS DOCES BRASIL C SANTOS DG, 1999, COMMUNICATION SEN AK, 1981, POVERTY FAMINES ESSA, V1, P1 SIMPSON LD, 1998, INT J WATER RESOURCE, V14, P399 SIMPSON LD, 1999, MANAGEMENT LATIN AM SKIDMORE TE, 1999, BRAZIL 5 CENTURIES C SMITH R, 2000, REV EC MAIS, V40, P4 SOUZA HR, 1994, DESENVOLVIMENTO SUST TAPIA RP, 1999, AFERS INT, V45, P11 TENDLER J, 1993, NEW LESSONS OLD PROJ TURRAL H, 1998, HYDRO LOGIC REFORM W VIEIRA VPP, 1998, INT J WATER RESOURCE, V14, P183 VISSCHER JT, 1999, OCCASIONAL PAPER SER, V31 WYTHE G, 1949, BRAZIL EXPANDING EC NR 57 TC 1 J9 WATER INT BP 24 EP 39 PY 2001 PD MAR VL 26 IS 1 GA 428GH UT ISI:000168453000003 ER PT J AU ZIMMERER, KS TI HUMAN-GEOGRAPHY AND THE NEW ECOLOGY - THE PROSPECT AND PROMISE OF INTEGRATION SO ANNALS OF THE ASSOCIATION OF AMERICAN GEOGRAPHERS LA English DT Article RP ZIMMERER, KS, UNIV WISCONSIN,DEPT GEOG,MADISON,WI 53706. AB The ''new ecology'' underscores the role of nonequilibrium conditions in biophysical environments, a reorientation of biological ecology based in part on biogeography. This paper describes the contributions of the ''new ecology'' and examines their implications for the analysis of biophysical environments in human geography, the most notable of which is a reformulation of certain key ecological postulates (generalized carrying capacity, area-biodiversity postulate, biodiversity-stability postulate). The irony of these reformulations is that our advanced understandings of biophysical environments come at the expense of the perceived certainty of prediction and possible justification for human-induced environmental degradation. These difficulties are not insuperable, however, as is readily demonstrated by the applications of the ''new ecology'' in landscape ecology and agroecology. Their example may prove instructive as geographers integrate the ''new ecology's'' perspectives on biophysical environments and interpret the relations between environmental conservation and economic development. 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V45, P229 WHITNEY GG, 1987, J ECOL, V75, P667 WHITTAKER RH, 1975, COMMUNITIES ECOSYSTE WHYTE AVT, 1986, GEOGRAPHY RESOURCES, V2, P240 WINTERHALDER B, 1980, HUM ECOL, V8, P135 WOLF E, 1972, ANTHR Q, V45, P201 WOLF ER, 1982, EUROPE PEOPLE HIST WORSTER D, 1977, NATURES EC ROOTS ECO WORSTER D, 1988, ENDS EARTH PERSPECTI WORSTER D, 1990, ENV HIST REV, V14, P1 ZIMMERER KS, IN PRESS CONCEPTUAL ZIMMERER KS, 1991, J BIOGEOGR, V18, P165 ZIMMERER KS, 1991, J ETHNOBIOL, V11, P23 ZIMMERER KS, 1994, J SOIL WATER CONSERV, V49, P29 NR 188 TC 54 J9 ANN ASSN AMER GEOGR BP 108 EP 125 PY 1994 PD MAR VL 84 IS 1 GA NE059 UT ISI:A1994NE05900007 ER PT J AU Tobin, GA Whiteford, LM TI Community resilience and volcano hazard: The eruption of Tungurahua and evacuation of the Faldas in Ecuador SO DISASTERS LA English DT Article C1 Univ S Florida, Dept Geog, Tampa, FL 33620 USA. RP Tobin, GA, Univ S Florida, Dept Geog, 4202 E Fowler Ave,SOC 107, Tampa, FL 33620 USA. AB Official response to explosive volcano hazards usually involves evacuation of local inhabitants to safe shelters. Enforcement is often difficult and problems can be exacerbated when major eruptions do not ensue, Families are deprived of livelihoods and pressure to return to hazardous areas builds. Concomitantly, prevailing socioeconomic and political conditions limit activities and can influence vulnerability. This paper addresses these issues, examining an ongoing volcano hazard (Tungurahua) in Ecuador where contextual realities significantly constrain responses, Fieldwork involved interviewing government officials, selecting focus groups and conducting surveys of evacuees in four locations: a temporary shelter, a permanent resettlement, with returnees and with a control group. Differences in perceptions of risk and health conditions, and in the potential for economic recovery were found among groups with different evacuation experiences. The long-term goal is to develop a model of community resilience in long-term stress environments. CR *MIN SAL PUBL EC, 2000, B MIN SAL PUBL EC, V1 *ORG PAN SAL ORG M, 2000, ERUPC VOLC PROT SAL ALEXANDER D, 1993, NATURAL DISASTERS BATES FL, 1994, DISASTERS COLLECTIVE BLAIKIE PM, 1994, RISK NATURAL HAZARDS, V1, P1 BLONG RJ, 1984, VOLCANIC HAZARDS SOU BOLIN RC, 1988, MENTAL HLTH RESPONSE BOLIN RC, 1998, GENDERED TERRAIN DIS BOYCE JK, 2000, DISASTERS, V24, P254 BROWN PJ, 2000, ANTHR INFECT DIS INT CANINO G, 1990, INT J MENT HEALTH, V19, P51 CERNEA MM, 2000, RISKS RECONSTRUCTION CHESTER D, 1993, VOLCANOES SOC CODY SH, 2000, ANTHR INFECT DIS INT COLA RM, 1996, FIRE MUD COOK RJ, 1981, SCIENCE, V211, P16 COREIL J, 2000, ANTHR INFECT DIS INT DASH N, 1997, HURRICANE ANDREW ETH DAVIS AP, 1996, LANCET, V348, P868 DIBBEN C, 1999, J VOLCANOL GEOTH RES, V92, P133 DRABEK TE, 1984, CONQUERING DISASTER HEWITT K, 1983, INTERPRETATIONS CALA HEWITT K, 1997, REGIONS RISK GEOGRAP, V1, P1 HOWARTH JP, 1997, LANCET S3, V349, P14 INHORN MC, 2000, ANTHR INFECT DIS INT KIRKWOOD BR, 1995, B WORLD HEALTH ORGAN, V73, P793 KREPS GA, 1994, ORG ROLE ENACTMENT D LINDELL MK, 1992, BEHAV FDN COMMUNITY MCCLAIN CS, 2000, ANTHR INFECT DIS INT MILETI DS, 1992, ERUPTION NEVADO RUIZ MILETI DS, 1999, DISASTERS DESIGN REA MULL DS, 2000, ANTHR INFECT DIS INT MURPHY AD, 2001, ANN M SOC APPL ANTHR NATIONS MK, 2000, ANTHR INFECT DIS INT NEUMANN K, 1997, OCEANIA, V67, P177 NEWHALL CG, 1996, FIRE MUD NITCHER M, 2000, ANTHR INFECT DIS INT NOEL GE, 1998, GENDERED TERRAIN DIS NOJI EK, 1997, PUBLIC HLTH CONSEQUE OLIVERSMITH A, 1999, ANGRY EARTH DISASTER PEACOCK WG, 1997, HURRICANE ANDREW ETH PERRY RW, 1978, MASS EMERGENCIES, V3, P105 PERRY RW, 1982, SOCIAL PSYCHOL CIVIL PUNOGBAYAN RS, 1996, FIRE MUD QUARANTELLI EL, 1998, WHAT IS DISASTER PER REES JD, 1979, VOLCANIC ACTIVITY HU ROBERTSON D, 1998, GENDERED TERRAIN DIS SMITH K, 1996, ENV HAZARDS ASSESSIN TOBIN GA, 1997, NATURAL HAZARDS EXPL TOBIN GA, 1999, ENV HAZARDS, V1, P13 TOBIN GA, 2000, CTR DIS MAN HUM ASS WAUGH WL, 1996, DISASTER MANAGEMENT WESTERN JS, 1979, NATURAL HAZARDS AUST WHITEFORD LM, 1999, INT REV COM, V11, P63 WHITEFORD LM, 2000, GLOBAL HLTH POLICY L WOOD DP, 1991, AM J EMERG MED, V9, P598 YELVINGTON KA, 1997, HURRICANE ANDREW ETH NR 57 TC 0 J9 DISASTERS BP 28 EP 48 PY 2002 PD MAR VL 26 IS 1 GA 532GP UT ISI:000174466200003 ER PT J AU Mazari-Hiriart, M Cruz-Bello, G Bojorquez-tapia, LA Juarez-Marusich, L Alcantar-Lopez, G Marin, LE Soto-Galera, E TI Groundwater vulnerability assessment for organic compounds: Fuzzy multicriteria approach for Mexico City SO ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article C1 Natl Autonomous Univ Mexico, Dept Ecol Biodivers, Inst Ecol, Mexico City 04510, DF, Mexico. Inst Nacl Invest Forestales Agr & Pecuarias, Mexico City 04110, DF, Mexico. Natl Autonomous Univ Mexico, Programa Univ Med Ambiente, Mexico City 04510, DF, Mexico. Secretaria Medio Ambiente & Recursos Nat, Direcc Gen Polit Ambiental & Integrac Reg & Sect, Mexico City, DF, Mexico. Natl Autonomous Univ Mexico, Inst Geofis, Dept Recursos Nat, Mexico City 04510, DF, Mexico. Inst Mexicano Petr, Mexico City 07730, DF, Mexico. RP Mazari-Hiriart, M, Natl Autonomous Univ Mexico, Dept Ecol Biodivers, Inst Ecol, Tercer Circuito Exterior Ciudad Univ, Mexico City 04510, DF, Mexico. AB This study was based on a groundwater vulnerability assessment approach implemented for the Mexico City Metropolitan Area (MCMA). The approach is based on a fuzzy multicriteria procedure integrated in a geographic information system. The approach combined the potential contaminant sources with the permeability of geological materials. Initially, contaminant sources were ranked by experts through the Analytic Hierarchy Process. An aggregated contaminant sources map layer was obtained through the simple additive weighting method, using a scalar multiplication of criteria weights and binary maps showing the location of each source. A permeability map layer was obtained through the reclassification of a geology map using the respective hydraulic conductivity values, followed by a linear normalization of these values against a compatible scale. A fuzzy logic procedure was then applied to transform and combine the two map layers, resulting in a groundwater vulnerability map layer of five classes: very low, low, moderate, high, and very high. Results provided a more coherent assessment of the policy-making priorities considered when discussing the vulnerability of groundwater to organic compounds. The very high and high vulnerability areas covered a relatively small area (71 km(2) or 1.5% of the total study area), allowing the identification of the more critical locations. The advantage of a fuzzy logic procedure is that it enables the best possible use to be made of the information available regarding groundwater vulnerability in the MCMA. CR *DGCOH, 1993, FUENT CONT AG SUBT A *DGCOH, 1996, PLAN MAESTR DREN ZON *ERDAS, 1999, ERDAS IMAGINE 8 4 TO *IMP, 1997, GCA097085 IMP IMADA *INEGI, 1993, CIUD MEX AR METR PER, P2 *INEGI, 1994, CENS EC *PEMEX PETR MEX, 1997, DAT BAS EST SERV VAL *UN, 2002, STESASERA216 *UNESCO WWAP, 2003, WAT PEOPL WAT LIF, P157 *US CERL, 2003, GRASS 5 8 GEOGR RES *US EPA, 1993, 813R93002 US EPA *US EPA, 1993, 813R93003 US EPA BANAIKASHANI R, 1989, ENVIRON MANAGE, V13, P685 BIRKLE P, 1995, GEOFISICA INT, V35, P63 BOJADZIEV G, 1995, FUZZY SETS FUZZY LOG BOJORQUEZTAPIA LA, 2002, ENVIRON MANAGE, V30, P418 COX E, 1994, FUZZY SYSTEM HDB PRA DALY D, 2002, HYDROGEOL J, V10, P340 DURAZO J, 1989, J HYDROL, V112, P171 EZCURRA E, 1999, BASIN MEXICO CRITICA FUCHS RJ, 1999, MEGA CITY GROWTH FUT, P1 GOGU RC, 2000, ENVIRON GEOL, V39, P549 HOWARD KWF, 2003, INTENSIVE USE GROUND, P35 JIMENEZCISNEROS B, 2004, AGUA MEXICO VISTA DE, P5 KNOX RC, 1996, WATER AIR SOIL POLL, V88, P205 KOSKO B, 1992, NEURAL NETWORKS FUZZ LESSER JM, 1986, ING HIDRAUL MEX SEP, P64 LESSER JM, 1990, INGENIERIA HIDRAULIC, P52 LESSER JM, 1998, ING HIDRAUL MEX, V13, P13 LLAMAS MR, 2003, INTENSIVE USE GROUND, P13 LOBOFERREIRA JP, 1997, P THEM C 27 C INT AS, P132 MACKAY DM, 1993, REGIONAL GROUND WATE, P323 MALCZEWSKI J, 1999, GIS MULTICRITERIA DE MARIN LE, 2002, URBAN AIR POLLUTION, P44 MARSAL RJ, 1969, SUBSUELO CIUDAD MEXI, P148 MARSAL RJ, 1990, SUBSUELO CUENCA VALL, P3 MAZARI M, 1993, ENVIRON SCI TECHNOL, V27, P794 MAZARI M, 1996, HACIA TERCER MILENIO, P113 MERINO H, 2000, CIUDAD MEXICO FIN SE, P344 MOOSER F, 1993, NUEVO MODELO HIDROGE, P68 MOOSER F, 1996, NUEVO MAPA GEOLOGICO ORTEGA A, 1989, J HYDROL, V110, P271 PANKOW JF, 1996, DENSE CHLORINATED SO PYE VI, 1983, GROUNDWATER CONTAMIN RAIL CD, 2000, CONTAMINATION SOURCE RAMANATHAN R, 2001, J ENVIRON MANAGE, V63, P27 RIOSVELASCO P, 1994, DISPOSICION FINAL DE RUDOLPH DL, 1991, WATER RESOUR RES, V27, P17 RUDOLPH DL, 1991, WATER RESOUR RES, V27, P2187 SAATY T, 1980, ANAL HIERARCHY PROCE SCHWILLE F, 1988, DENSE CHLORINATED SO TAIT NG, 2004, SCI TOTAL ENVIRON, V319, P77 THOMAS RD, 1990, SIGNIFICANCE TREATME, P451 THORNTON J, 2000, PANDORAS POISON CHLO VAZQUEZ E, 1995, THESIS U NACL AUTONO VILLA F, 2002, ENVIRON MANAGE, V29, P335 WARREN CJ, 1997, J CONTAM HYDROL, V27, P177 WESTRICK JJ, 1990, SIGNIFICANCE TREATME, P103 NR 58 TC 0 J9 ENVIRON MANAGE BP 410 EP 421 PY 2006 PD MAR VL 37 IS 3 GA 011YA UT ISI:000235304000009 ER PT J AU Challinor, AJ Wheeler, TR Craufurd, PQ Ferro, CAT Stephenson, DB TI Adaptation of crops to climate change through genotypic responses to mean and extreme temperatures SO AGRICULTURE ECOSYSTEMS & ENVIRONMENT LA English DT Article C1 Univ Reading, Dept Meteorol, Ctr Global Atmospher Modelling, Reading RG6 6BB, Berks, England. Univ Reading, Dept Agr, Reading RG6 6AT, Berks, England. RP Challinor, AJ, Univ Reading, Dept Meteorol, Ctr Global Atmospher Modelling, Reading RG6 6BB, Berks, England. AB The importance of temperature in the determination of the yield of an annual crop (groundnut; Arachis hypogaea L. in India) was assessed. Simulations from a regional climate model (PRECIS) were used with a crop model (GLAM) to examine crop growth under simulated current (1961-1990) and future (2071-2100) climates. Two processes were examined: the response of crop duration to mean temperature and the response of seed-set to extremes of temperature. The relative importance of, and interaction between, these two processes was examined for a number of genotypic characteristics, which were represented by using different values of crop model parameters derived from experiments. The impact of mean and extreme temperatures varied geographically, and depended upon the simulated genotypic properties. High temperature stress was not a major determinant of simulated yields in the current climate, but affected the mean and variability of yield under climate change in two regions which had contrasting statistics of daily maximum temperature. Changes in mean temperature had a similar impact on mean yield to that of high temperature stress in some locations and its effects were more widespread. Where the optimal temperature for development was exceeded, the resulting increase in duration in some simulations fully mitigated the negative impacts of extreme temperatures when sufficient water was available for the extended growing period. For some simulations the reduction in mean yield between the current and future climates was as large as 70%, indicating the importance of genotypic adaptation to changes in both means and extremes of temperature under climate change. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. CR *IITM, 2004, IND CLIM CHANG SCEN MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 *IPCC, 2001, CLIM CHANG 2001 SCI AINSWORTH EA, 2005, NEW PHYTOL, V165, P351 CHALLINOR A, 2005, PHILOS T R SOC B, V360, P1983 CHALLINOR AJ, 2003, J APPL METEOROL, V42, P175 CHALLINOR AJ, 2004, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V124, P99 CHALLINOR AJ, 2005, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V135, P180 CHALLINOR AJ, 2005, J APPL METEOROL, V44, P516 CHALLINOR AJ, 2005, TELLUS A, V57, P498 CHALLINOR AJ, 2006, AVOIDING DANGEROUS C, P187 CRAUFURD PQ, 2003, FIELD CROP RES, V80, P63 DOORENBOS J, 1979, FAO IRRIGATION DRAIN, V33 EASTELL R, 1996, OSTEOPOROSIS INT S2, V6, P3 FERRIS R, 1998, ANN BOT-LONDON, V82, P631 FERRO CAT, 2005, J CLIMATE, V18, P4344 FISCHER G, 2002, CLIMATE CHANGE AGR V HANSEN JW, 2000, AGR SYST, V65, P43 HUNTINGFORD C, 2005, PHILOS T ROY SOC B, V360, P1999 ISMAIL AM, 1999, CROP SCI, V39, P1762 KAKANI VG, 2001, THESIS U READING UK KATZ RW, 1992, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V21, P289 KIMBALL BA, 2002, ADV AGRON, V77, P293 LONG SP, 2005, PHILOS T ROY SOC B, V360, P2011 MALL RK, 2004, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V121, P113 MATSUI T, 2001, PLANT PROD SCI, V4, P90 MATTHEWS R, 2003, EUR J AGRON, V19, P573 MATTHEWS RB, 1995, CLIMATE CHANGE RICE, P314 MCKEOWN A, 2005, CAN J PLANT SCI, V85, P431 OBRIEN KL, 2004, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V14, P303 ONG CK, 1986, P INT S AGR GROUNDN, P115 PARRY ML, 2004, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V14, P1 PORTER JR, 2005, PHILOS T ROY SOC B, V360, P2021 PRASAD PVV, 1999, THESIS U READING EAR PRASAD PVV, 2001, AUST J PLANT PHYSIOL, V28, P233 PRASAD PVV, 2002, GLOBAL CHANGE BIOL, V8, P710 PRIESTLEY CHB, 1972, MON WEATHER REV, V100, P81 REDDY PS, 1988, GROUNDNUT ROBERTS EH, 1987, MANIPULATION FLOWERI, P17 ROTTER R, 1999, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V43, P651 SEMENOV MA, 1995, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V73, P265 SEMENOV MA, 1997, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V35, P397 SINCLAIR TR, 2001, AGRON J, V93, P263 SIVAKUMAR MVK, 2005, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V70, P31 STOOKSBURY DE, 1994, AGRON J, V86, P564 SULTAN B, 2005, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V128, P93 TANNER CB, 1983, LIMITATIONS EFFICIEN, P1 TAYLOR KE, 2001, J GEOPHYS RES-ATMOS, V106, P7183 WHEELER TR, 1996, J EXP BOT, V47, P623 WHEELER TR, 2000, AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON, V82, P159 ZWART SJ, 2004, AGR WATER MANAGE, V69, P115 NR 51 TC 0 J9 AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON BP 190 EP 204 PY 2007 PD FEB VL 119 IS 1-2 GA 129CP UT ISI:000243706300019 ER PT J AU Rochette, P Belanger, G Castonguay, Y Bootsma, A Mongrain, D TI Climate change and winter damage to fruit trees in eastern Canada SO CANADIAN JOURNAL OF PLANT SCIENCE LA English DT Article C1 Agr & Agri Food Canada, Soils & Crop Res & Dev Ctr, St Foy, PQ G1V 2J3, Canada. Agr & Agri Food Canada, Eastern Cereal & Oilseed Res Ctr, Cent Expt Farm, Ottawa, ON K1A 0C6, Canada. RP Rochette, P, Agr & Agri Food Canada, Soils & Crop Res & Dev Ctr, 2560 Hochelaga Blvd, St Foy, PQ G1V 2J3, Canada. AB Rochette, P., Belanger, G., Castonguay, Y., Bootsma, A. and Mongrain, D. 2004. Climate change and winter damage to fruit trees in eastern Canada. Can. J. Plant Sci. 84: 1113-1125. Climatic conditions during the cold season represent a serious constraint to fruit production in eastern Canada. Meteorological models predict that temperatures of winter months will increase by 2 to 6degreesC by 2050. The possible impact of climate change on fruit trees in eastern Canada was assessed using agroclimatic indices expressing the risks associated with known causes of damage during fall, winter, and spring. Indices were calculated for 15 agricultural regions in eastern Canada for recent (1961-1990) and future periods (2010-2039 and 2040-2069) using temperature and precipitation data predicted by the Canadian Global General Circulation Model (CGCMI). Averaged across all agricultural regions, the first fall frost in 2040-2069 would be delayed by 16 d while the last spring frost (less than or equal to-2degreesC) would be advanced by 15 d. By 2040 to 2069, the risks of damage to fruit trees by early winter frosts in eastern Canada are likely to decrease because the shorter photoperiod at the time of the first fall frost would result in a longer hardening period. Milder winter temperatures will also reduce the cold stress as the accumulation of cold degree-days (<-15degreesC) would be reduced and the annual minimum temperature would be increased in all regions of eastern Canada. More frequent winter thaw events, however, would result in a loss of hardiness and in a thinner snow cover that would increase the plant vulnerability to subsequent extreme sub-freezing temperatures. The risk of damage to flower buds by a late frost would increase in southern Ontario, remain almost unchanged in the Maritimes and Ottawa Valley-southem Quebec regions, and decrease in the Continental North. The projected climate change should allow for the introduction of new varieties and species where fruit trees are currently grown and for an extension further north of the commercial production in eastern Canada. CR *CAN I CLIM STUD, 2001, CLIM COMP *CONS PROD VEG QUE, 1991, POMM CULT *ENV CAN, 1999, CAN DAIL CLIM DAT TE *IPCC, 1999, IPCC DAT DISTR CTR P *MICH STAT U EXT, 2003, CRIT SPRING TEMP FRU ANDERSON JL, 1993, HORTIC REV, V15, P97 ARNOLD CY, 1959, P AM SOC HORTIC SCI, V74, P430 ASHWORTH EN, 1989, PLANT CELL ENVIRON, V12, P521 ASHWORTH EN, 1991, HORTSCIENCE, V26, P501 ASHWORTH EN, 1992, HORTIC REV, V13, P215 BELANGER G, 2001, IMPACT CLIMATE CHANG BELANGER G, 2002, AGRON J, V94, P1120 BERVAES JCA, 1978, PHYSIOL PLANTARUM, V44, P365 BOER GJ, 2000, CLIM DYNAM, V16, P427 BROWN DM, 1961, AGRON J, V53, P306 CAPRIO JM, 1999, CAN J PLANT SCI, V79, P129 CASTONGUAY Y, 1984, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V31, P273 COLEMAN WK, 1992, CAN J PLANT SCI, V72, P507 EMBREE CG, 1984, FRUIT VARIETIES J, V38, P8 HONG SG, 1982, PLANT COLD HARDINES, V2 HOUGHTON JT, 2001, CONTRIBUTION WORKING, V1 HOWELL GS, 1970, J AM S HORT, V95, P190 KETCHIE DO, 1973, J AM SOC HORTIC SCI, V98, P257 KRUEGER RR, 1983, CAN GEOGR, V27, P315 LANGLOIS A, 1985, THESIS U LAVAL QUEBE LARCHER W, 1980, PHYSL PLANT ECOLOGY MCKENNEY DW, 2001, CAN J PLANT SCI, V81, P129 OUELLET CE, 1967, CAN J PLANT SCI, V47, P351 PAQUIN R, 1980, CAN J PLANT SCI, V60, P139 PAQUIN R, 1984, BEING ALIVE LAND, P137 PARKER J, 1963, BOT REV, V229, P124 PEARCE RS, 2001, ANN BOT-LONDON, V87, P417 PERRY TO, 1971, SCIENCE, V171, P29 PIERQUET P, 1977, J AM SOC HORTIC SCI, V102, P54 PROEBSTING EL, 1961, P AM SOC HORTIC SCI, V78, P104 QUAMME HA, 1976, CAN J PLANT SCI, V56, P493 QUAMME HA, 1982, CAN J PLANT SCI, V62, P137 QUAMME HA, 1986, CAN J PLANT SCI, V66, P945 QUAMME HA, 1987, CAN J PLANT SCI, V67, P1135 QUAMME HA, 1990, COMPACT FRUIT TREE, V2, P11 QUAMME HA, 1997, ACTA HORTIC, V451, P187 RAJESHAKAR CB, 1982, PLANT COLD HARDINESS, V2, P211 ROCHETTE P, 1993, CLIMATOL B, V27, P45 ROCHETTE P, 1993, CLIMATOL B, V27, P96 ROUSSELLE GL, 1983, COMPACT FRUIT TREE, V16, P111 SAKAI A, 1987, FROST SURVIVAL PLANT SIMONS RK, 1976, J AM SOC HORTIC SCI, V101, P315 TABIOS GQ, 1985, WATER RESOUR BULL, V21, P365 THORNTHWAITE CW, 1948, GEOGR REV, V38, P55 WESTWOOD MN, 1993, TEMPERATE ZONE POMOL WILDUNG DK, 1973, CAN J PLANT SCI, V53, P323 WINKLER JA, 2002, J GREAT LAKES RES, V28, P608 NR 52 TC 1 J9 CAN J PLANT SCI BP 1113 EP 1125 PY 2004 PD OCT VL 84 IS 4 GA 879OL UT ISI:000225727000022 ER PT J AU Soffer, A TI Environmental quality and national security SO WATER SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY LA English DT Article C1 Univ Haifa, Dept Geog, IL-31905 Haifa, Israel. RP Soffer, A, Univ Haifa, Dept Geog, IL-31905 Haifa, Israel. AB This article defines national security and environmental quality, points to the developing connection between the two, and uses the case of Israel to illustrate this link. The following matters have to be learned about national security as well as world security - rainfall and water table levels as predictors of famine and the collapse of governments, or the spread of the Sahara Desert as a predictor that ethnic strife will result. Failure to halt the deterioration of ecological systems threatens national security and human survival as a whole. There are disasters that are immediate, but most of them do not constitute a threat to the national security of states, the exceptions are nuclear threat as in the Chernobyl case, or droughts and flooding. There are disasters that are felt only in the medium term, like climatic changes and they can endanger entire states, thus weakening national security. CR *IFRCRCS, 1994, WORLD DIS REP *NDC, 1988, DOC COUNC HIGH ED BLOOM S, 1994, HIDDEN CASUALTIES EN BROWN LR, 1977, WORLD WATCH, V14, P21 DRESSLER E, 1995, I YOU WE SHALL CHANG EHRLICH PP, 1991, POPULATION EXPLOSION EYLON A, 1983, MONTHLY REV, V2, P18 FANOS AM, 1995, J COASTAL RES, V11, P821 FIESHELZON L, 1993, MONTHLY REV, V11, P14 GLEICK PH, 1994, ENVIRONMENT, V36, P6 GLICKMAN TS, 1992, CRM9002 GREENHOUSE S, 1995, NY TIME 1005 HERDMAN RC, 1993, PREPARING UNCERTAIN, V1 HEWITT K, 1971, DEP GEOGRAPHY RES PU, V6 HEWITT K, 1997, REGIONS RISK GEOGRAP, V1, P1 HEYMAN BN, 1991, DISASTER MANAGEMENT, V4, P3 HOMERDIXON T, 1993, SCI AM, V39, P38 NAVE Z, 1981, ECOLOGY MAN LANDSCAP PIRAZZOLI PA, 1998, SEA LEVEL CHANGES LA SMITH K, 1996, ENV HAZARDS SOFFER A, IN PRESS COLLAPSE IS SOFFER A, 1986, PROF GEOGR, V38, P28 SOFFER A, 1999, RIVERS FIRE CONFLICT TAL I, 1983, JERUSALEM Q, V27, P3 TAL I, 1996, FEW AGAINST MANY THOMPSON SA, 1982, 45 U COL I BEH SCI ZOON IS, 1995, ENV MONITORY ASSESSM, V37, P347 NR 27 TC 0 J9 WATER SCI TECHNOL BP 361 EP 366 PY 2000 VL 42 IS 1-2 GA 356WC UT ISI:000089465000058 ER PT J AU Rees, WE TI An ecological economics perspective on sustainability and prospects for ending poverty SO POPULATION AND ENVIRONMENT LA English DT Article C1 Univ British Columbia, Sch Community & Reg Planning, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z2, Canada. RP Rees, WE, Univ British Columbia, Sch Community & Reg Planning, 6333 Mem Rd, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z2, Canada. AB Despite our pretensions to science, modern industrial society is as myth-bound and mystical as any that has preceded it. Our prevailing cultural myth includes a dangerous vision of global sustainability and poverty reduction centered on unlimited economic expansion, "free" trade and technological fixes. This paper dissects the modern myth, exposing its conceptual flaws and practical failings. It then proposes an alternative conceptual framework for development derived from ecological economics and ecological footprint analysis. The new framework recognizes that the human enterprise is a subsystem of the ecosphere whose growth is constrained by biophysical limits. If humanity is to seize control of its destiny it must arise above wishful thinking and tribal instinct. Global society needs a new cultural myth rooted in humanity's unique claim to intelligence and self-awareness in the face of danger. Human security depends on equitable development-not growth-within the means of nature. Sustainability with social justice can be achieved only through an unprecedented level of international cooperation rooted in a sense of compassion for both other peoples and other species. 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RP McGranahan, G, Int Inst Environm & Dev, Human Settlements Program, 3 Endsleigh St, London WC1H 0DD, England. AB This article compares and contrasts the environmental problems faced by low- middle- and high income cities and what this implies for each in meeting the environmental goals of sustainable development. It reviews the evidence in regard to how air, water and waste problems differ according to cities' average incomes, This shows that household and neighbourhood level problems such as indoor air pollution and inadequate Provision for household water supplies, sanitation and waste removal are most severe in low-income cities, and that their burdens fall primarily on the urban poor. Affluent cities contribute much more to global stresses such as carbon emissions and aggregate waste generation, whose burdens fall far more widely and are more likely to affect future generations. The article also discusses other important influences on the severity, of cities' environmental burdens - in particular intra-urban inequality, and the quality of governance. The article ends with a discussion of whether the environmental interests of the currently, deprived are complementary to or in conflict with those of future generations, and the potential role of an in reconciling these interests. CR MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 *OECD, 1991, STAT ENV *UNCHS, 1997, GLOB URB IND DAT *WCED, 1987, OUR COMM FUT *WORLD BANK, 1992, WORLD DEV REP 1992 D *WORLD BANK, 1993, WORLD DEV REP 1993 I *WORLD BANK, 1999, ENT 21 CENT WORLD DE BAPAT M, 1984, HABITAT INT, V8, P115 BARTLETT S, 1999, CITIES CHILDREN CHIL BECKERMAN W, 1995, SMALL IS STUPID BLOW CAIRNCROSS S, 1993, ENV HLTH ENG TROPICS CHENG HH, 1990, SSSA BOOK SER, V2, P1 COINTREAU SJ, 1986, ENV MANAGEMENT URBAN DALY HE, 1996, GROWTH EC SUSTAINABL DAVIS DL, 1997, LANCET, V350, P1341 DOUGLASS M, 2002, ENVIRON URBAN, V14, P53 GLEICK PH, 1998, ECOL APPL, V8, P571 GROSSMAN GM, 1995, Q J ECON, V110, P353 HARDOY JE, 2001, ENV PROBLEMS URBANIZ HOLTZEAKIN D, 1995, J PUBLIC ECON, V57, P85 KJELLEN M, 1997, UBAN WATER HLTH SUST KRAUSE RM, 1992, SCIENCE, V257, P1073 LINES J, 1994, HEALTH POLICY PLANN, V9, P113 MCGRANAHAN G, 1993, HOUSEHOLD ENERGY PRO MCGRANAHAN G, 2000, SUSTAINABLE CITIES D MCGRANAHAN G, 2001, CITIZENS RISK URBAN MCMICHAEL AJ, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE HUMAN NEWMAN P, 1996, ENVIRON URBAN, V8, P67 NISHIOKA S, 1990, CITIS GLOBAL CLIMATE, P108 REES WE, 1992, ENVIRON URBAN, V4, P121 ROTHMAN DS, 1998, ECOL ECON, V25, P177 SCHOFIELD CJ, 1990, POOR DIE YOUNG, P189 SHAFIK NT, 1995, OXFORD ECON PAP, V46, P757 SMITH K, 1999, HLTH AIR POLLUTION R SMITH KR, 1988, ENVIRONMENT, V30, P16 SMITH KR, 1993, ANNU REV ENERG ENV, V18, P529 SMITH KR, 1993, HLTH IMPACT COOKSTOV, V3 SMITH KR, 1994, ENERGY, V19, P587 TAUXE RV, 1995, EMERG INFECT DIS, V1, P141 TORRAS M, 1998, ECOL ECON, V25, P147 VANVLIET W, 2002, ENVIRON URBAN, V14, P31 NR 41 TC 0 J9 GEOGRAPHY BP 213 EP 226 PY 2002 PD JUL VL 87 GA 576CW UT ISI:000176986100005 ER PT J AU Bogardi, JJ TI Hazards, risks and vulnerabilities in a changing environment: the unexpected onslaught on human security? SO GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS LA English DT Editorial Material C1 United Nations Univ, Inst Environm & Human Secur, D-53113 Bonn, Germany. RP Bogardi, JJ, United Nations Univ, Inst Environm & Human Secur, Goerres Str 15, D-53113 Bonn, Germany. CR *INT STRAT DIS RED, 2002, LIV RISK GLOB REV DI *ISDR UN WMO, 2004, WMO PUBL, V971 *UNDP, 2004, RED DIS RISK CHALL D *UNU, 2004, 2 BILL PEOPL VULN FL ALEXANDER D, 2000, CONFRONTING CATASTRO ALEXANDER WJR, 2004, CLIMATE MULTIDECADAL ARDAKANIAN R, 2004, COMMUNICATION BOGARDI JJ, 1979, THESIS U KARLSRUHE BOGARDI JJ, 1981, P 19 IAHR C NEW DELH, V4, P319 BOHLE HG, 2002, ENV HUMAN SECURITY C HUANG WC, 1989, THESIS ASIAN I TECHN KRON W, 2003, SCHADENSPIEGEL LOSSE, P26 PLATE E, 2002, ENV HUMAN SECURITY C ROZGONYI T, 2000, TISZAI ARVIZ VELEMEN SULLIVAN C, 2002, SCOPING STUDY IDENTI VLEK P, 2004, NOTH BEG NOTH THREAT WISNER B, 2002, ENV HUMAN SECURITY C NR 17 TC 0 J9 GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANGE BP 361 EP 365 PY 2004 PD DEC VL 14 IS 4 GA 897NL UT ISI:000227010900007 ER PT J AU Falkenmark, M Folke, C TI The ethics of socio-ecohydrological catchment management: towards hydrosolidarity SO HYDROLOGY AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES LA English DT Article C1 Stockholm Int Water Inst, Stockholm, Sweden. Stockholm Univ, Dept Syst Ecol, S-10691 Stockholm, Sweden. RP Falkenmark, M, Stockholm Int Water Inst, Stockholm, Sweden. AB This paper attempts to clarify key biophysical issues and the problems involved in the ethics of socio-ecohydrological catchment management. The issue in managing complex systems is to live with unavoidable change while securing the capacity of the ecohydrological system of the catchment to sustain vital ecological goods and services, aquatic as well as terrestrial, on which humanity depends ultimately. Catchment management oriented to sustainability has to be based on ethical principles: human rights, international conventions, sustaining crucial ecological goods and services, and protecting ecosystem resilience, all of which have water link-ages. Many weaknesses have to be identified, assessed and mitigated to improve the tools by which the ethical issues can be addressed and solved: a heritage of constraining tunnel vision in both science and management', inadequate shortcuts made in modern scientific system, analyses (e.g. science addressing sustainability issues), simplistic technical-fix approaches to water and ecosystems in I and/water/ecosystem management, conventional tools for evaluation of scientific quality with its focus on "doing the thing right" rather than "doing the right thing". The new ethics have to incorporate principles that, on a catchment basis, allow for proper attention to the hungry and poor, upstream and downstream, to descendants, and to sites and habitats that need to be protected. CR BERKES F, 1998, LINKING SOCIAL ECOLO, V1, P1 DAILY GC, 1997, NATURES SERVICES SOC FALKENMARK M, 2000, WATER INT, V25, P172 FOLKE C, 1996, ECOL APPL, V6, P1018 GUNDERSON LH, 2002, PANARCHY UNDERSTANDI, V1, P1 HOLLING CS, 1996, CONSERV BIOL, V10, P328 HOLLING CS, 1998, LINKING SOCIAL ECOLO, P342 KATES RW, 2001, SCIENCE, V292, P641 KINZIG AP, 2000, NATURE SOC IMPERATIV LEVIN SA, 1999, FRAGILE DOMINION COM LUNDQVIST J, 2000, NEW DIMENSIONS WATER OSTROM E, 1990, GOVERNING COMMONS EV PERRINGS CA, 1995, BIODIVERSITY LOSS EC PETERSON GD, 1998, ECOSYSTEMS, V1, P6 RIPL W, 1995, ECOL MODEL, V78, P61 ROCKSTROM J, 1999, CONSERVATION ECOLOGY, V3 SCHEFFER M, 2001, UNPUB NATURE VANDERLEEUW S, 2000, WAY WIND BLOWS CLIMA NR 18 TC 3 J9 HYDROL EARTH SYST SCI BP 1 EP 9 PY 2002 PD FEB VL 6 IS 1 GA 531NG UT ISI:000174421000001 ER PT J AU Smith, JB Pitts, GJ TI Regional climate change scenarios for vulnerability and adaptation assessments SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Article RP Smith, JB, HAGLER BAILLY CONSULTING INC,PO DRAWER O,BOULDER,CO 80306. AB This paper describes the regional climate change scenarios that are recommended for use in the U.S. Country Studies Program (CSP) and evaluates how well four general circulation models (GCMs) simulate current climate over Europe. Under the umbrella of the CSP, 50 countries with varying skills and experience in developing climate change scenarios are assessing vulnerability and adaptation. We considered the use of general circulation models, analogue warm periods, and incremental scenarios as the basis for creating climate change scenarios. We recommended that participants in the CSP use a combination of GCM based scenarios and incremental scenarios. The GCMs, in spite of their many deficiencies, are the best source of information about regional climate change. Incremental scenarios help identify sensitivities to changes in a particular meteorological variable and ensure that a wide range of regional climate change scenarios are considered. We recommend using the period 1951-1980 as baseline climate because it was a relatively stable climate period globally. Average monthly changes from the GCMs and the incremental changes in climate variables are combined with the historical record to produce scenarios. The scenarios do not consider changes in interannual, daily, or subgrid scale variability. Countries participating in the Country Studies Program were encouraged to compare the GCMs' estimates of current climate with actual long-term climate means. In this paper, we compare output of four GCMs (CCCM, GFDL, UKMO, and GISS) with observed climate over Europe by performing a spatial correlation analysis for temperature and precipitation, by statistically comparing spatial patterns averaged climate estimates from the GCMs with observed climate, and by examining how well the models estimate seasonal patterns of temperature and precipitation. In Europe, the GISS and CCCM models best simulate current temperature, whereas the GISS and UK89 models, and the CCCM model, best simulate precipitation in defined northern and southern regions, respectively. CR *COHMAP MEMB, 1988, SCIENCE, V241, P1043 *SAS I INC, 1989, SAS STAT US GUID VER, V1 BENIOFF R, 1996, VULNERABILITY ADAPTA, P200 BOER GJ, 1992, J CLIMATE, V5, P1045 CARTER TR, 1994, IPCC TECHNICAL GUIDE, P59 CRUTCHER HL, 1970, 501C52 NAVAIR GATES WL, 1990, CLIMATE CHANGE IPCC, P365 GATES WL, 1992, CLIMATE CHANGE 1992, P200 GROTCH SL, 1991, J CLIMATE, V4, P286 HANSEN J, 1983, MON WEATHER REV, V111, P609 HOUGHTON JT, 1992, CLIMATE CHANGE 1992, P200 HOUGHTON JT, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, P572 JAEGER L, 1976, BERICHTE DTSCH WETTE, V139 JONES PD, 1994, TRENDS 93 COMPENDIUM, P28 KALKSTEIN LS, 1991, GLOAL COMP SELECTED, P251 KARL TR, 1994, TRENDS 93 COMPENDIUM, P984 KIEHL JT, 1993, SCIENCE, V260, P311 MEARNS LO, 1995, GLOBAL PLANET CHANGE, V10, P55 MITCHELL JFB, 1990, CLIMATE CHANGE IPCC, P364 MITCHELL JFB, 1995, NATURE, V376, P501 POIANI KA, 1993, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V24, P213 ROBOCK A, 1993, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V23, P293 ROSENBERG NJ, 1993, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V24, P7 SCHUTZ C, 1971, R915ARPA RAND CORP, P173 STRZEPEK KM, 1995, CLIMATE CHANGES INT, P213 SULZMAN EW, 1995, ENVIRON MANAGE, V19, P197 TALJAARD JJ, 1969, 501C55 NAVAIR, P134 TAYLOR KE, 1994, NATURE, V369, P734 VINER D, 1992, CLIMATE CHANGE SCENA, P33 WEBB T, 1992, GLOBAL WARMING BIOL, P386 NR 30 TC 11 J9 CLIMATIC CHANGE BP 3 EP 21 PY 1997 PD MAY-JUN VL 36 IS 1-2 GA XH635 UT ISI:A1997XH63500002 ER PT J AU Ringrose, S Chanda, R Nkambwe, M Sefe, F TI Environmental change in the mid-Boteti area of north-central Botswana: Biophysical processes and human perceptions SO ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article RP Ringrose, S, UNIV BOTSWANA & SWAZILAND,DEPT ENVIRONM,PRIVATE BAG 0022,GABORONE,BOTSWANA. AB Increased interest in environmental change issues has led researchers to consider more integrated approaches to change dynamics. This paper examines change in terms of land degradation in north-central Botswana from both biophysical and human perspectives. Although seasonal and periodic droughts were prevalent, analysis of rainfall data over the past 70 years revealed no downward trend. However, indicators of declining productivity such as soil erosion, loss oi vegetation cover, and a declining groundwater table were amply evident. The GIS analysis oi remotely sensed data has shown that complete vegetation recovery after drought is not laking place, particularly in the south-central part of the study area. These areas contained the highest human and livestock population densities. The local people acknowledged facing increasing resource depletion and indicated drought as the main cause. Pressures on available resources, particularly during drought periods, appeared to have impeded the regenerative capacity oi the natural vegetation cover, thereby inducing land degradation. This situation may not easily be rectified because oi widespread poverty and inappropriate local perceptions oi the solutions. Both of these hinder the adoption oi sustainable land management. 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RP Mustafa, D, Univ S Florida, Program Environm Sci Policy & Geog, St Petersburg, FL 33701 USA. AB This article reconsiders vulnerability to contemporary hazards within the context of a globalizing world, characterized by the hegemony of technocratic and social modernity. It presents findings of a field study conducted on flood hazard in the Rawalpindi/Islamabad conurbation in Pakistan. Insights from three intellectual traditions within resource geography-pragmatism, political ecology, and "socionature"-are coupled with the landscape idea within cultural geography to develop the integrative concept of a "hazardscape." This concept is defined as both an analytical way of seeing that asserts power and as a social-environmental space where the gaze of power is contested and struggled against to produce the lived reality of hazardous places. Analyses of the Lai Nullah hazardscape in the Rawalpindi/Islamabad conurbation reveal that flood victims perceive a much greater range of choice in dealing with the flood hazard than do policy makers. On the other hand, flood managers, typically state agents, see a very limited range of choice because of their modernist technocratic engagement with the Lai hazardscape. The hazardscape concept engages the social structural basis of vulnerability as well as the power/knowledge dynamic governing policy and popular discourses on flood hazard in the Lai. Analysis through the lens of the hazardscape helps expand the range of choice and suggests pragmatic solutions to hazardous situations. 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CR *COMM PUBL ENG, 1972, POL PERSP BEN RISK D *COMM TECHN EST PR, 1988, EST PROB EXTR FLOODS BARROWS HH, 1923, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V13, P1 BAUMANN DD, IN PRESS ROLES SOCIA BOLIN B, 1986, SCOPE29 REP BRYANT R, 1987, ENVIRONMENT, V29, P4 BURTON I, 1978, ENV HAZARD, V1, P1 CLARK WC, 1986, SUSTAINABLE DEV BIOS DRABEK TE, 1986, HUMAN SYSTEM RESPONS HEWITT K, 1983, INTERPRETATIONS CALA KATES RW, 1962, 78 U CHIC DEP GEOGR KATES RW, 1977, MONOGRAPH U COLORADO, V25 KATES RW, 1985, SCOPE27 REP KATES RW, 1986, GEOGRAPHY RESOURCES, V1 KNIGHT FH, 1921, RISK UNCERTAINTY PRO KUNREUTHER H, 1978, MONOGRAPH U COLORADO, V26 KUNREUTHER H, 1986, GEOGRAPHY RESOURCES, V2, P153 ORIORDAN T, 1986, GEOGRAPHY RESOURCES, V2, P272 PITTOCK B, 1986, SCOPE28 REP PLATT RH, 1986, GEOGRAPHY RESOURCES, V2, P28 ROSEN H, 1988, FLOOD CONTROL CHALLE SAARINEN TF, 1966, 106 U CHIC DEP GEOGR SAARINEN TF, 1984, 209 U CHIC DEP GEOGR SHORT JF, 1984, AM SOCIOL REV, V49, P711 SHORT JF, 1987, AM SOCIOLOGIST, V22, P167 SLOVIC P, 1982, JUDGMENT UNCERTAINTY WHITE GF, 1975, ASSESSMENT RES NATUR, V1, P1 WHITE GF, 1988, FLOOD CONTROL CHALLE WHYTE AVT, 1986, GEOGRAPHY RESOURCES, V2, P240 NR 29 TC 5 J9 RISK ANAL BP 171 EP 175 PY 1988 PD JUN VL 8 IS 2 GA Q4069 UT ISI:A1988Q406900004 ER PT J AU Yamin, F TI The European Union and future climate policy: Is mainstreaming adaptation a distraction or part of the solution? SO CLIMATE POLICY LA English DT Article C1 Univ Sussex, Inst Dev Studies, Brighton BN1 9RH, E Sussex, England. RP Yamin, F, Univ Sussex, Inst Dev Studies, Brighton BN1 9RH, E Sussex, England. AB This article reviews the European Union's stance and policies on climate change adaptation and argues that developing a coherent long-term European strategy on climate change post-2012 will require the European Union to focus more strongly on adaptation issues than has hitherto been the case. It suggests that the EU should examine the dissonance between its prescriptions for integrating adaptation within the EU with its prescriptions to developing countries to mainstream adaptation. The EU should avoid a carrot-and-stick approach to adaptation funding and should focus on identifying common institutional and learning challenges with developing countries. CR 2004, EARTH NEGOTIATIONS B, V12 *COM, 2002, 278 COM *COMM APPL PRINC S, 2003, 770 COM COMM APPL PR *EEA, 2004, 22004 EEA *EU COUNC, 2004, CONCL 14 OCT 2004 *EU, 2001, 20012053 EU SEC *EUR COMM, 2002, 2002276 COM EUR COMM *EUR COMM, 2003, 200385 COM EUR COMM *EUR COMM, 2004, 2004394 COM EUR COMM *INT FED RED CROSS, 2004, WORLD DIS REP *IPCC, 2001, 3 ASS REP *PEW CTR GLOB CLIM, 2002, CLIM CHANG MIT DEV C, R3 BANURI T, 2003, EUROPEAN UNIONS DEV, V4 BARNETT J, 2004, ENERG POLICY, V32, P2077 BEZANSON K, 2004, IDS B CLIMATE CH JUL BODANSKY D, 1994, YALE J INT LAW, V18 BURTON I, 2002, CLIM POLICY, V2, P145 EASTERLING WE, 2004, COPING GLOBAL CLIMAT FORSEBACK L, 2001, KNOWLEDGE EC CLIMATE GREENE W, 2004, IDS B CLIMATE CHANGE GUPTA J, 2000, CLIMATE CHANGE EUROP GUPTA J, 2001, INT ENV AGREEMENT, V1 KENBER M, 2005, CLIMATE CHANGE CARBO LAMIN M, 2004, IDS B LINNEROOTHBAYER J, 2003, RISK ANAL, V23, P537 OBRIEN KL, 2004, WHATS WORD CONFLICTI OTT K, 2004, 0104 FEA GERM FED EN PACHAURI RK, 2004, IDS B CLIMATE CHANGE, V35 PASTEUR K, 2004, LESSONS CHANGE POLIC, V6 POUMADERE M, 2004, INT WORKSH DANG CLIM SIMMS A, 2004, UP SMOKE NEF IIED SPERLING F, 2003, POVERTY CLIMATE CHAN STOTT PA, 2004, NATURE, V432, P610 VERHEYEN R, 2002, REV EUROPEAN COMMUNI, V11 WILLOWS C, 2003, UKCIP RISK UNCERTAIN YAMIN F, 2004, IDS B CLIMATE CHANGE YAMIN F, 2004, INT CLIMAGE CHANGE R NR 37 TC 0 J9 CLIM POLICY BP 349 EP 361 PY 2005 VL 5 IS 3 GA 991UN UT ISI:000233839700008 ER PT J AU Fraser, EDG TI Social vulnerability and ecological fragility: Building bridges between social and natural sciences using the Irish Potato Famine as a case study SO CONSERVATION ECOLOGY LA English DT Article C1 Leeds Inst Environm Sci & Management, Leeds, W Yorkshire, England. RP Fraser, EDG, Leeds Inst Environm Sci & Management, Leeds, W Yorkshire, England. AB Between 1845 and 1850, a potato blight triggered a famine that killed or displaced 25% of the Irish population. Aside from its historical and cultural significance, the Irish Potato Famine illustrates how social and economic forces can create vulnerability to environmental disturbance. Therefore, studying the famine contributes to the on-going academic debate on theories to combine social and environmental data. This paper explores the conditions leading to the Irish famine using the "Entitlement" framework of Sen (1980) and the "Panarchy" model proposed by Gunderson and Holling (2002). Entitlement theory allows us to better understand how community food security may become vulnerable over time as different social and economic forces eliminate or restrict avenues to obtain food. In Ireland, a host of economic, demographic, and social pressures marked the decades leading to the famine and meant that the Irish peasantry had no food options when the potato crop failed. Panarchy provides a way of characterizing ecological systems that are vulnerable to disruptions. The agro-ecosystem that developed in Ireland prior to the famine had characteristics typical of vulnerable environments: fields were close together, biodiversity was low, and a large amount of biomass made this ecosystem attractive to opportunistic pests. Neither framework, however, provides an adequate way of examining the totality of human-environmental relations. By combining entitlements with panarchy, we can explore both the social and environmental characteristics of vulnerability. Entitlements and panarchy can be coupled by first assessing the extent to which communities depend on the natural environment for livelihoods, and the options available if the environment changes. Once a dependency on the environment has been ascertained, the characteristics of the specific ecosystems in question must then be assessed to determine their vulnerability to external shocks and disturbances. The panarchy framework makes this possible. CR 1968, ENCY IRELAND *INT PAN CLIM CHAN, 2001, WORK GROUP 1 CLIM CH *IR CTR MIGR STUD, 2003, POP IR ALTIERI MA, 1999, AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON, V74, P19 BARYAM Y, 1992, DYNAMICS COMPLEX SYS BENBROOK CM, 1990, SUSTAINABLE AGR SYST, P68 BERKES F, 2002, PANARCHY UNDERSTANDI, P97 BOURKE A, 1993, VISITATION GOD POTAT CHISHOLM A, 1982, FOOD SECURITY THEORY DALBY S, 2002, ENV SECURITY DALY M, 1986, FAMINE IRELAND DREZE J, 1989, HUNGER PUBLIC ACTION FOSTER R, 1988, MODERN IRELAND FRASER E, 2003, IN PRESS GLOBAL ENV GEERTZ C, 1973, INTERPRETATION CULTU GLIESSMAN S, 1998, AGROECOLOGY GRIFFIN D, 2001, GLOBAL CHANGE HUMAN, V2, P20 GUNDERSON LH, 2002, PANARCHY UNDERSTANDI, V1, P1 GUNDERSON LH, 2002, PANARCHY UNDERSTANDI, P315 HAJER MP, 1999, WORLD POT C HOLLING CS, 2002, PANARCHY UNDERSTANDI, P395 HOLLING CS, 2000, CONSERV ECOL, V4, P1 HOLLING CS, 2001, ECOSYSTEMS, V4, P390 HOMERDIXON T, 1995, STRATEGIES STUDYING HOMERDIXON T, 1999, ENV SCARCITY VIOLENC KASPERSON JX, 1995, REGIONS RISK, V1, P1 KASPERSON RE, 2001, GLOBAL ENV RISK, P1 KAUFFMAN S, 1995, HOME UNVERSE SEARCH KINEALY C, 1994, GREAT CALAMITY LEACH M, 1999, WORLD DEV, V27, P225 LEE R, 1977, MODERNIZATION IRISH LYNCH P, 1960, GUINNESSS BREWERY IR MANNION A, 1995, AGR ENV CHANGE MEARNS R, 1996, CAHIERS SCI HUMAINES, V32, P105 MOKYR J, 1987, WHY IRELAND STARVED MUSCARA L, 2000, GEOJOURNAL, V52, P285 OGRADA C, 1989, GREAT IRISH FAMINE OHLSSON L, 2000, SE10525 ENV POL UN POST J, 2003, GEOFORUM, V34, P85 SCHOLTE K, 1992, NETHERLANDS J PLAN S, V2, P93 SEN AK, 1981, POVERTY FAMINES ESSA, V1, P1 SHAW G, 1911, MAN SUPERMAN SMITH K, 2001, GLOBAL ENV RISK, P148 TAYLOR PJ, 1992, GEOFORUM, V23, P405 UMAERUS V, 1992, NETHERLANDS J PLAN S, V2, P241 VONSTORCH H, 1997, AMBIO, V26, P66 WATTS MJ, 1993, PROG HUM GEOG, V17, P43 WHELAN K, 1997, ATLAS IRISH RURAL LA WOODHAMSMITH C, 1962, GREAT HUNGER NR 49 TC 1 J9 CONSERV ECOL BP 1 PY 2003 PD DEC VL 7 IS 2 GA 779NY UT ISI:000189307800005 ER PT J AU Smit, B Burton, I Klein, RJT Wandel, J TI An anatomy of adaptation to climate change and variability SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 Univ Guelph, Dept Geog, Guelph, ON N1G 2W1, Canada. Univ Toronto, Inst Environm Studies, Environm Adaptat Res Grp, Toronto, ON M6J 3E9, Canada. Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res, D-14412 Potsdam, Germany. RP Smit, B, Univ Guelph, Dept Geog, Guelph, ON N1G 2W1, Canada. AB Adaptation to climate variability and change is important both for impact assessment (to estimate adaptations which are likely to occur) and for policy development (to advise on or prescribe adaptations). This paper proposes an "anatomy of adaptation" to systematically specify and differentiate adaptations, based upon three questions: (i) adapt to what? (ii) who or what adapts? and (iii) how does adaptation occur? Climatic stimuli include changes in long-term mean conditions and variability about means, both current and future, and including extremes. Adaptation depends fundamentally on the characteristics of the system of interest, including its sensitivities and vulnerabilities. The nature of adaptation processes and forms can be distinguished by numerous attributes including timing, purposefulness, and effect. The paper notes the contribution of conceptual and numerical models and empirical studies to the understanding of adaptation, and outlines approaches to the normative evaluation of adaptation measures and strategies. CR *UN FRAM CONV CLIM, 1992, UN FRAM CONV CLIM CH ABERCROMBIE M, 1977, DICT BIOL ADAMS RM, 1995, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V30, P147 ADGER WN, 1998, IN PRESS MITIGATION ADGER WN, 1999, IN PRESS WORLD DEV, V27 ALABALABERTRAND JM, 1993, POLITICAL EC LARGE N AUSUBEL JH, 1991, NATURE, V350, P649 BIJLSMA L, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, P289 BLAIKIE PM, 1994, RISK NATURAL HAZARDS, V1, P1 BOHLE HG, 1994, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V4, P37 BRUCE JP, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995 BURTON I, 1992, UNPUB ADAPT THRIVE BURTON I, 1978, ENV HAZARD, V1, P1 BURTON I, 1996, ADAPTING CLIMATE CHA, P55 BURTON I, 1997, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V36, P185 CALLAWAY JM, 1997, MITIGATION ADAPTATIO CARTER TP, 1994, IPCC TECHNICAL GUIDE DARWIN RF, 1995, WORLD AGR CLIMATE CH DEFREITAS CR, 1989, POPULATION DISASTER DENEVAN W, 1983, PROF GEOGR, V35, P406 DEVRIES J, 1985, CLIMATE IMPACT ASSES, P273 DOWNING TE, 1989, COPING DROUGHT KENYA DOWNING TE, 1991, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V1, P365 DOWNING TE, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE EXTRE EASTERLING WE, 1993, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V24, P23 EASTERLING WE, 1996, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V80, P1 FANKHAUSER S, 1996, ADAPTATING CLIMATE C, P80 FANKHAUSER S, 1997, 13 GLOB ENV FAC FEENSTRA JF, 1998, HDB METHODS CLIMATE FREDERICK KD, 1997, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V37, P141 FUKUI H, 1979, P WORLD CLIM C GEN, P426 GLANTZ M, 1988, SOC RESPONSES CLIMAT GLANTZ MH, 1996, ADAPTING CLIMATE CHA, P407 GOKLANY IM, 1995, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V30, P427 HARDESTY DL, 1983, PROF GEOGR, V35, P399 HASTENRATH S, 1995, J CLIMATE, V8, P1519 HEATHCOTE RL, 1985, CLIMATE IMPACT ASSES, P369 HEWITT K, 1971, HAZARDOUSNESS PLACE HEWITT K, 1997, REGIONS RISK GEOGRAP, V1, P1 HOUGHTON JT, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995 HULME M, 1995, ENERG POLICY, V23, P347 HURD BH, 1997, IMPACT CLIMATE CHANG JEPMA CJ, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, P225 JODHA NS, 1989, GREENHOUSE WARMING A KANE SM, 1992, EC ISSUES GLOBAL CLI, P117 KARL TR, 1998, B AM METEOROL SOC, V79, P231 KASPERSON RE, 1991, EVALUATION REV, V15, P149 KATES RW, 1971, ECON GEOGR, V47, P438 KATES RW, 1985, CLIMATE IMPACT ASSES, P3 KATES RW, 1985, PERILOUS PROGR MANAG KLEIN RJT, 1997, ADAPTATION CLIMATE C KLEIN RJT, 1998, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V44, P15 KLEIN RJT, 1999, AMBIO, V28, P182 KRANKINA ON, 1997, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V36, P197 LAGOS P, 1992, NATURAL TECHNOLOGICA LAWRENCE E, 1995, HENDERSONS DICT BIOL LEEMANS R, 1992, J SCI IND RES INDIA, V51, P709 LEWANDROWSKI JK, 1992, EC ISSUES GLOBAL CLI, P132 MACDONALD GM, 1993, NATURE, V361, P243 MAGALHAES AR, 1996, ADAPTING CLIMATE CHA, P44 MARKHAM A, 1996, ADAPTING CLIMATE CHA, P384 MEARNS LO, 1984, J CLIM APPL METEOROL, V23, P1601 MEYER WB, 1998, HUMAN CHOICE CLIMATE, V3, P217 OLSTHOORN AA, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE EXTRE, P185 ORIORDAN T, 1999, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V9, P81 PARRY ML, 1986, SUSTAINABLE DEV BIOS, P378 PETERS RL, 1992, GLOBAL WARMING BIOL PIMM SL, 1984, NATURE, V307, P321 RAYNER S, 1998, HUMAN CHOICE CLIMATE, V3 RIBOT JC, 1996, CLIMATE VARIABILITY, V1, P1 RIEBSAME WE, 1991, GREAT PLAINS RES, V1, P133 ROSE C, 1991, CAN NATURE SURVIVE G ROSENZWEIG C, 1994, NATURE, V367, P133 SMIT B, 1996, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V33, P7 SMIT B, 1997, CAN GEOGR-GEOGR CAN, V41, P429 SMIT B, 1993, ADAPTATION CLIMATIC SMITH JB, 1996, ADAPTING CLIMATE CHA, P68 SMITH JB, 1996, CLIMATE RES, V6, P193 SMITH JB, 1996, WATER AIR SOIL POLL, V92, P229 SMITH K, 1996, ENV HAZARDS ASSESSIN SMITHERS J, 1997, AGR RESTRUCTURING SU, P167 SMITHERS J, 1997, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V7, P129 SONKA ST, 1987, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V11, P291 SONKA ST, 1992, EC ISSUES GLOBAL CLI, P402 SPRENGERS SA, 1994, BIODIVERSITY CLIMA 1 STAKHIV E, 1993, EVALUATION IPCC ADAP STAKHIV EZ, 1996, ADAPTING CLIMATE CHA, P243 TITUS JG, 1990, J AM PLANN ASSOC, V56, P311 TOL RSJ, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE EXTRE, P17 TOL RSJ, 1997, SCOPE ADAPTATION CLI VISCUSI WK, 1992, EC ISSUES GLOBAL CLI, P414 WARREN MQ, 1986, CRIM JUSTICE BEHAV, V13, P393 WATSON RT, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, V1, P1 WATSON RT, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, P1 WIGLEY TML, 1985, NATURE, V316, P106 YOHE GW, 1996, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V32, P387 NR 96 TC 10 J9 CLIMATIC CHANGE BP 223 EP 251 PY 2000 PD APR VL 45 IS 1 GA 323WX UT ISI:000087588900013 ER PT J AU Aswani, S TI Customary sea tenure in oceania as a case of rights-based fishery management: Does it work? SO REVIEWS IN FISH BIOLOGY AND FISHERIES LA English DT Article C1 Univ Calif Santa Barbara, Dept Anthropol, Santa Barbara, CA 93106 USA. Univ Calif Santa Barbara, Interdept Grad Program Marine Sci, Santa Barbara, CA 93106 USA. RP Aswani, S, Univ Calif Santa Barbara, Dept Anthropol, Santa Barbara, CA 93106 USA. AB This paper outlines the general characteristics of customary sea tenure (CST) in Oceania and identifies areas in which these characteristics overlap with modern rights-based fisheries management systems such as ITQs and CDQs. It also examines the effectiveness of CST regimes at regulating marine resource use and access by focusing on a particular case from the Solomon Islands. The institutional robustness or vulnerability of CST is assessed by examining various performance criteria for two communities in the Roviana Lagoon, Western Solomons. These criteria include people's (1) settlement patterns in relation to their property, (2) cultural consensus, (3) cultural attitudes with regard to governance and management, and (4) fishing efforts and yields. The results show that a number of historical processes have shaped CST systems into heterogeneous and dynamic institutions, and that CST regimes can vary even on small geographical scales. Understanding the circumstances in which CST regimes are more likely to be successful has facilitated the design and implementation of co-management fishery prescriptions (MPAs) for protecting particular species and habitats in the region. More generally, the paper proposes that by discerning the effectiveness of local governance institutions at regulating resource use and access - taking into consideration that these are embedded in particular historical and political contexts - we can better predict whether or not an introduced fishery management system will work. This knowledge can also assist in designing hybrid management schemes that cross-fertilize community-based management, modern rights-based fishery management (e.g., ITQs and CDQs), and other government regulations. This integration is particularly relevant when these policies are to be implemented in coastal communities that have or have had traditional rights-based fishery management systems of their own and/or are more socio-culturally homogeneous. Given the long history of failed fishery management, it is now of vital importance to design innovative fishery management prescriptions that integrate natural and social science research more comprehensively. CR *NAT CENS, 1999, REP 1999 POP HOUS CE ACHESON JM, 1996, AM ANTHROPOL, V98, P579 ACHESON JM, 2003, CAPTURING COMMONS DE ACHESON JM, 2004, AM ANTHROPOL, V106, P296 ADAMS T, 1998, OCEAN COAST MANAGE, V40, P127 ADAMS TJ, 1997, S PACIFIC COMMISSION AKIMICHI T, 1978, J POLYNESIAN SOC, V87, P301 ALLISON EH, 2001, J INT DEV, V13, P933 ASWANI S, 1997, TRADITIONAL MARINE R, V8, P2 ASWANI S, 1998, OCEAN COAST MANAGE, V40, P207 ASWANI S, 1999, HUM ECOL, V27, P417 ASWANI S, 2000, J POLYNESIAN SOC, V109, P39 ASWANI S, 2002, AMBIO, V31, P272 ASWANI S, 2003, CURR ANTHROPOL, V44, P51 ASWANI S, 2004, 20002004 U CAL DEP A ASWANI S, 2004, ENVIRON CONSERV, V31, P69 ASWANI S, 2004, HUM ORGAN, V63, P301 ASWANI S, 2004, TRADITIONAL MARINE R, V16, P3 BERKES F, 1985, ENVIRON CONSERV, V12, P199 BERNARD HR, 2000, HDB METHODS CULTURAL BERNARD HR, 2002, RES METHODS ANTHR QU BESS R, 2001, MAR POLICY, V25, P23 BROMLEY DW, 1992, ENVIRON RESOUR ECON, V2, P1 CASIMIR MJ, 1992, MOBILITY TERRITORIAL, P1 CASTILLA JC, 2001, REV FISH BIOL FISHER, V11, P1 CHAPMAN MD, 1985, ENVIRON CONSERV, V12, P217 CHRISTIE P, 2003, FISHERIES, V28, P22 CHRISTOFORIDIS M, 1996, IEEE T POWER SYST, V11, P287 CHRISTY FR, 1982, 227 FAO CINNER J, 2005, ECOL SOC, V10, P36 CIRIACYWANTRUP SV, 1975, NAT RESOUR J, V15, P713 COOKE AJ, 2000, ENVIRON CONSERV, V27, P291 CORDELL J, 1989, 26 SEA SMALL BOATS C DAHL C, 1988, MAR POLICY, V12, P40 DANDRADE R, 1995, DEV COGNITIVE ANTHR DIETZ T, 2003, SCIENCE, V302, P1907 DURRENBERGER EP, 1987, AM ETHNOL, V14, P508 DYSONHUDSON R, 1978, AM ANTHROPOL, V80, P24 FOSTER KB, 1993, OCEAN COAST MANAGE, V20, P1 GRAHAM T, 1998, OCEAN COAST MANAGE, V40, P143 HANNA SS, 1996, SOCIAL IMPLICATIONS, P133 HANNESSON R, 1991, EUR ECON REV, V35, P397 HOLLAND D, 1987, CULTURAL MODELS LANG HVIDING E, 1989, NRI SPECIAL PUBLICAT, V13 HVIDING E, 1996, GUARDIANS MAROVO LAG HYNDMAN D, 1993, PACIFIC STUDIES, V16, P99 JENTOFT S, 1998, MAR POLICY, V22, P423 JOHANNES RE, 1978, ANNU REV ECOL SYST, V9, P349 JOHANNES RE, 1981, WORDS LAGOON FISHING JOHANNES RE, 1998, TRENDS ECOL EVOL, V13, P243 JOHANNES RE, 2002, ANNU REV ECOL SYST, V33, P317 LEIVA GE, 2002, REV FISH BIOL FISHER, V11, P283 LEVINE HB, 1983, ETHNOLOGY, V23, P89 MACE PM, 1993, FISHERIES, V18, P29 MALONEY DG, 1979, J FISH RES BOARD CAN, V36, P859 MANTJORO E, 1996, SENRI ETHNOLOGICAL S, V42, P121 MASCIA MB, 2003, CONSERV BIOL, V17, P630 MCCAY BJ, 1995, OCEAN COAST MANAGE, V28, P3 NIETSCHMANN B, 1985, TRADITIONAL KNOWLEDG, P125 ORBACH M, 1996, PARTN COAST ZON MAN, P45 OSTROM E, 1990, GOVT COMMONS EVOLUTI PALSSON G, 1995, OCEAN COAST MANAGE, V28, P117 PETERSON N, 1998, OCEANIA MONOGRAPH, V48 PINKERTON E, 1989, CO OPERATIVE MANAGEM POLLNAC RB, 1984, SENRI ETHNOLOGICAL S, V17, P285 POLUNIN NVC, 1984, SENRI ETHNOLOGICAL S, V17, P267 RUDDLE K, 1984, SEA SMALL BOATS CUST RUDDLE K, 1988, MARINE RESOURCE EC, V5, P351 RUDDLE K, 1996, REEF FISHERIES, P315 RUDDLE K, 1998, OCEAN COAST MANAGE, V40, P105 RUTTAN LM, 1998, HUM ECOL, V26, P43 SCHREIBER DK, 2001, FISH FISH, V2, P376 SHOTTON R, 2000, US PROP RIGHTS FISH SMITH A, 1991, RES MAN OPT, V18, P155 STANTON RL, 1969, VOLCANIC ASS ROCKS N STEELMAN TA, 2001, POLICY SCI, V34, P357 STEVENSON GG, 1991, COMMON PROPERTY EC G STODDART DR, 1969, PHILOS T ROY SOC B, V255, P388 SUDO K, 1984, MARITIME I W PACIFIC, P203 TAURAKOTO P, 1984, LAND TENURE VANUATU THOMAS FR, 2001, HUM ECOL, V29, P399 TOLOA F, 1991, 23 SPC REG TECHN M F WAGNER J, 2004, HUM ORGAN, V62, P320 YOUNG MD, 1995, PROPERTY RIGHTS ENV, P87 NR 84 TC 3 J9 REV FISH BIOL FISHERIES BP 285 EP 307 PY 2005 PD AUG VL 15 IS 3 GA 036QZ UT ISI:000237091300008 ER PT J AU Cai, XM TI Risk in irrigation water supply and the effects on food production SO JOURNAL OF THE AMERICAN WATER RESOURCES ASSOCIATION LA English DT Article C1 Univ Illinois, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Ven Te Chow Hydrosyst Lab, Urbana, IL 61801 USA. RP Cai, XM, Univ Illinois, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Ven Te Chow Hydrosyst Lab, 205 N Mathews Ave, Urbana, IL 61801 USA. AB This paper examines irrigation water supply deficit and associated risk indicators due to random climate events and potential effects on irrigated food production during the period 1996 to 2025 for seven river basins in the USA, China, and India. An integrated water and food model with global scope is applied for the analysis. The global climate regime during 1961 to 1990 is used to generate 30 climatic scenarios for the time period 1996 to 2025, and these scenarios are applied to the model in order to characterize the randomness of precipitation, runoff, and evapotranspiration, which affects both irrigation water supply and demand. The risk with random climate events is represented by reliability, variability, and vulnerability from different perspectives. Regarding irrigation water supply, Colorado will bear an increasingly unstable situation although the average water supply relative to the demand will maintain at a relatively high level; selected basins in China and India indicate that significantly lower levels of reliability and more deleterious affects from drought can be expected, but under a less variable condition due to assumed water storage increase. From 1996 to 2025, the effects of water deficits on irrigated food production are characterized with a nonlinear phenomenon and food production loss will be more sensitive to irrigation water supply deficit in the future. Future work following this paper needs to consider the impact of global climate change and the water quality of the irrigation return flow and result verification by local studies. CR *CRU, 1998, GLOB CLIM DAT *INT SECR DIAL WAT, 2002, DIAL WAT CLIM YELL R *SCOWAR, 1997, HYDROLOG SCI J, V43, P19 *UN, 1998, WORLD POP PROSP 1998 *WORK GROUP ENV US, 1998, CHIN ENV SER *WORLD BANK, 1993, WAT RES MAN ALCAMOJ, 1998, GLOBAL CHANGE GLOBAL ALLEN RG, 1998, 56 FAO BATCHELOR C, 1999, AGR WATER MANAGE, V40, P249 CAI XM, 2002, WATER INT, V27, P159 COSGROVE WJ, 2000, WORLD WATER VISION M DOORENBOS J, 1977, 24 FAO DOORENBOS J, 1979, 33 FAO FIERING M, 1971, WATER RESOURCES MONO, V1 PERRY CJ, 1998, 24 INT WAT MAN I POSTEL SL, 1993, GUIDE WORLDS FRESHWA, P60 POSTEL SL, 2002, RIO JOHANNESBURG SEC REVENGA C, 1998, WATERSHED WORLD ECOL ROSEGRANT M, 2002, WORLD WATER FOOD 202 ROSEGRANT MW, 2002, WATER INT, V27, P170 SECKLER D, 1996, 1 IWMI TIWARI D, 2002, Q J INT AGR, V41, P77 NR 22 TC 0 J9 J AM WATER RESOUR ASSOC BP 679 EP 692 PY 2005 PD JUN VL 41 IS 3 GA 941QT UT ISI:000230230000013 ER PT J AU Tweed, SO Leblanc, M Webb, JA Lubczynski, MW TI Remote sensing and GIS for mapping groundwater recharge and discharge areas in salinity prone catchments, southeastern Australia SO HYDROGEOLOGY JOURNAL LA English DT Article C1 Monash Univ, Sch Geosci, Melbourne, Vic 3800, Australia. La Trobe Univ, Dept Earth Sci, Bundoora, Vic 3086, Australia. ITC, Dept Water Resources, NL-7500 AA Enschede, Netherlands. RP Tweed, SO, Monash Univ, Sch Geosci, Melbourne, Vic 3800, Australia. AB Identifying groundwater recharge and discharge areas across catchments is critical for implementing effective strategies for salinity mitigation, surface-water and groundwater resource management, and ecosystem protection. In this study, a synergistic approach has been developed, which applies a combination of remote sensing and geographic information system (GIS) techniques to map groundwater recharge and discharge areas. This approach is applied to an unconfined basalt aquifer, in a salinity and drought prone region of southeastern Australia. The basalt aquifer covers similar to 11,500 km(2) in an agriculturally intensive region. A review of local hydrogeological processes allowed a series of surface and subsurface indicators of groundwater recharge and discharge areas to be established. Various remote sensing and GIS techniques were then used to map these surface indicators including: terrain analysis, monitoring of vegetation activity, and mapping of infiltration capacity. All regions where groundwater is not discharging to the surface were considered potential recharge areas. This approach, applied systematically across a catchment, provides a framework for mapping recharge and discharge areas. A key component in assigning surface and subsurface indicators is the relevance to the dominant recharge and discharge processes occurring and the use of appropriate remote sensing and GIS techniques with the capacity to identify these processes. 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RP Pitman, AJ, Macquarie Univ, Dept Phys Geog, N Ryde, Sydney, NSW 2109, Australia. AB Geography is fundamentally a non-reductionist and holistic discipline. While we tend to focus on particular areas (Physical, Human. etc.), or we focus on specific successes (Quaternary studies for example) this paper argues that selling Geography though emphasizing these specific areas or strengths misses a major potential contribution our discipline can make. While most sciences have become reductionist over the last two centuries, they have recently discovered that the Earth is a "complex system" with "emergent" properties that cannot be explained through understanding the components parts individually. Many of these sciences are now contributing to a major effort called Earth System Science, an integrative super-discipline that accepts that biophysical sciences and social sciences are equally important in any attempts to understand the state, and future of the Earth System. This paper argues that the development of Earth System Sciences is a risk for Geography since it is, in effect, Geography with few Geographers. While representing a threat, the development of Earth System Science is also an opportunity. I argue that Geography could be a lead discipline among the other biophysical and social sciences that are now building Earth System Science to address key problems within the Earth System. While I am optimistic about the potential of Geography to take this leadership role, I am pessimistic about the likelihood that we will. I provide suggestions on how we might take on the leadership of Earth System Science including individual engagement and a refinement of tertiary training of some Geography students. (C) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *IGBP IHDP WRCP DI, 2001, AMST DECL GLOB CHANG ALVERSON KD, 2003, PALEOCLIMATE GLOBAL ARNELL NW, 1996, GLOBAL WARMING RIVER ARNELL NW, 1999, GLOBAL ENV CHANGE HU, V9, P531 BARRY RG, 1976, ATMOSPHERE WEATHER C BEVEN KJ, 2000, RAINFALL RUNOFF MODE BONAN GB, 1995, J GEOPHYS RES-ATMOS, V100, P2817 BOUNOUA L, 2002, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V52, P29 BOUWMAN AF, 1990, SOILS GREENHOUSE EFF BRIERLEY G, 2004, GEOMORPHOLOGY RIVER BUTCHER SS, 1992, GLOBAL BIOGEOCHEMICA CANADELL J, 2001, TRENDS ECOL EVOL, V16, P664 CHARLSON RJ, 1992, GLOBAL BIOGEOCHEMICA CHORLEY RJ, 1984, GEOMORPHOLOGY CLARK WA, 2003, 91 MIT COOKE RU, 1974, GEOMORPHOLOGY ENV MA CUTTER SL, 2003, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V93, P1 DAVIS WM, 1901, ELEMENTARY PHYS GEOG, P401 DEFRIES RS, 1995, J GEOPHYS RES-ATMOSP, V100, P20867 DEFRIES RS, 1999, J GEOPHYS RES-ATMOS, V104, P16911 DEFRIES RS, 2000, GLOB CHANGE BIOL, V6, P247 DEFRIES RS, 2002, GLOBAL CHANGE BIOL, V8, P438 FOLEY JA, 1998, GLOB CHANGE BIOL, V4, P561 GITAY H, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, CH5 GOLDMAN SL, 2000, J BIOL RHYTHM, V15, P417 HILLEL D, 1998, ENV SOIL PHYS HOUGHTON JT, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995 HOUGHTON JT, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 HUGGETT RJ, 2003, FUNDAMENTALS GEOMORP KABAT P, 2003, VEGETATION WATER HUM KATES RW, 2001, SCIENCE, V292, P641 KEELING CD, 2002, TRENDS COMPENDIUM DA KOSTER RD, 2000, J GEOPHYS RES-ATMOS, V105, P24809 LARCHER W, 1995, PHYSIOLOGICAL PLANT LOVELOCK J, 1979, GAIA NEW LOOK LIFE E LOVELOCK JE, 2003, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V57, P1 MCGUFFIE K, 2001, INT J CLIMATOL, V21, P1067 NAKICENOVIC N, 2000, IPCC SPECIAL REPORT OKE TR, 1978, BOUNDARY LAYER CLIMA PARRY ML, 1990, CLIMATE CHANGE WORLD PARRY ML, 1998, NATURE, V395, P741 PARRY ML, 2002, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V12, P149 PIELKE RA, 2003, VEGETATION WATER HUM PRENTICE IC, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, P183 RAMANKUTTY N, 1998, GLOBAL BIOGEOCHEM CY, V12, P667 SCHELLNHUBER HJ, 1998, EARTH SYSTEM ANAL IN SCHELLNHUBER HJ, 1999, NATURE S, V402, C19 SCHNEIDER SH, 1998, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V39, P1 SCHNEIDER SH, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P203 SELLERS PJ, 1996, B AM METEOROL SOC, V77, P1987 SMITH TM, 1997, PLANT FUNCTIONAL TYP STEFFEN W, 2002, P GLOB CHANG OP SCI STEFFEN W, 2003, GLOBAL CHANGE EARTH STOCKER T, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, CH7 STRAHLER AN, 1951, PHYS GEOGRAPHY STULL RB, 1988, INTRO BOUNDARY LAYER THRIFT N, 2002, GEOFORUM, V33, P291 TURNER BL, 1990, EARTH TRANSFORMED HU TURNER BL, 2002, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V92, P52 TURNER BL, 2002, GEOFORUM, V33, P427 VERNADSKY VI, 1926, BIOSPHERE VITOUSEK PM, 1997, ECOL APPL, V7, P737 VITOUSEK PM, 1997, SCIENCE, V277, P494 VOROSMARTY CJ, 1989, GLOBAL BIOGEOCHEM CY, V3, P241 VOROSMARTY CJ, 2000, SCIENCE, V289, P284 WILLIAMS M, 2003, DEFORESTING EARTH PR WILSON MF, 1985, J CLIMATOL, V5, P119 WOOD EF, 1992, J GEOPHYS RES-ATMOS, V97, P2717 NR 68 TC 5 J9 GEOFORUM BP 137 EP 148 PY 2005 PD MAR VL 36 IS 2 GA 902YZ UT ISI:000227393900002 ER PT J AU Marschke, M Berkes, F TI Local level sustainability planning for livelihoods: A Cambodian experience SO INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT AND WORLD ECOLOGY LA English DT Article C1 Univ Manitoba, Inst Nat Resources, Winnipeg, MB R3T 2N2, Canada. RP Marschke, M, Univ Manitoba, Inst Nat Resources, 70 Dysart Rd, Winnipeg, MB R3T 2N2, Canada. AB How do Cambodian villagers perceive sustainability and what do they do'on the ground'? Looking at sustainability issues through the lens of two local resource management committees, and using a triangulation of social science research methods, this paper examines the roles and responsibilities of these groups and how they grapple with resource degradation and related activities. The committees have experimented with a range of resource management strategies, from creating fishing sanctuaries to resolving fishing gear theft. The results indicate that one reason villagers are willing to engage in coil) In Unity-based management is when they believe that they can improve livelihoods within their community. Community-based management is being carried out in the absence of formal legislation; it is recognized through government policy and administrative approvals. In this regard, local-level support and leadership has been key, and the current arrangement has created the political space for experimentation and learning. CR *IIRR, 1998, PART METH COMM BAS C ADAMS WM, 2001, GREEN DEV ENV SUSTAI BERKES F, 2001, MANAGING SMALL SCALE BERKES F, 2002, DRAMA COMMONS, P293 BERKES F, 2003, NAVIGATING SOCIAL EC, V1, P1 BINGEMAN K, 2004, INT J SUST DEV WORLD, V11, P99 BLAIKIE PM, 1995, PEOPLE ENV, P1 CHAMBERS R, 1992, 296 I DEV STUD CHAMBERS R, 1997, WHOSE REALITY COUNTS DELOPEZ TT, 2001, INT J SUST DEV WORLD, V8, P380 EKSTRAND LH, 2001, INT J SUST DEV WORLD, V8, P127 EVANS P, 2002, SAMUDRA MAR, P6 GODFREY M, 2002, WORLD DEV, V30, P355 HOLLING CS, 1978, ADAPTIVE ENV ASSESSM KATES RW, 2001, SCIENCE, V292, P641 LAROCHELLE S, 2003, INT J SUST DEV WORLD, V10, P361 LEE KN, 1993, COMPASS GYROSCOPE IN LUDWIG D, 1993, SCIENCE, V260, P17 MARSCHKE M, 2003, CAN J DEV STUD, V24, P369 MCKENNEY B, 2002, 23 CAMB DEV RES I MOFFAT D, 1998, AMBIO, V27, P590 OLSSON P, 2001, ECOSYSTEMS, V4, P85 OLSSON P, 2004, ENVIRON MANAGE, V34, P75 OSTROM E, 1990, GOVERNING COMMONS EV POFFENBERGER M, 2002, TRANSITIONS COMMUNIT POMEROY RS, 1997, MAR POLICY, V21, P465 SACHS W, 2002, DEVELOPMENT, V45, P12 SCOONES I, 1998, 72 IDS SNEDDON CS, 2000, PROG HUM GEOG, V24, P521 WILKINSON R, 2002, INT J SUST DEV WORLD, V5, P381 NR 30 TC 2 J9 INT J SUSTAIN DEV WORLD ECOL BP 21 EP 33 PY 2005 PD MAR VL 12 IS 1 GA 919CY UT ISI:000228597100003 ER PT J AU Amadore, LA Bolhofer, WC Cruz, RV Feir, RB Freysinger, CA Guill, S Jalal, KF Iglesias, A Jose, AM Leatherman, SP Lenhart, SS Mukherjee, SK Smith, JB Wisniewski, J TI Climate change vulnerability and adaptation in Asia and the Pacific: Workshop summary SO WATER AIR AND SOIL POLLUTION LA English DT Article C1 NOAA,NATL WEATHER SERV,WIA,SILVER SPRING,MD 20910. UNIV PHILIPPINES,LOS BANOS,PHILIPPINES. NAMIRA,MANILA,PHILIPPINES. CAMBER CORP,WASHINGTON,DC 20005. US COUNTRY STUDIES PROGRAM,WASHINGTON,DC 20585. ASIAN DEV BANK,ORTIGAS CTR,PASIG CITY,METRO MANILA,PHILIPPINES. INST NACL INVEST AGR,CIFOR,MADRID 28040,SPAIN. UNIV MARYLAND,DEPT GEOG,LAB COASTAL RES,COLLEGE PK,MD 20742. HAGLER BAILLY CONSULTING INC,BOULDER,CO 80306. RP Amadore, LA, PAGASA,1424 QUEZON AVE,QUEZON 1100,PHILIPPINES. AB The Regional Workshop on Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment in Asia and the Pacific met to present and discuss assessments of vulnerability and adaptation to climate change in agriculture, forests, coastal resources, and water resources. Discussions were held in breakout and plenary sessions about the state of the science for vulnerability and adaptation assessment conclusions that can be drawn about the vulnerability of the region to climate change, and where future research efforts should be directed. The workshop concluded that sea level rise is of greatest concern to island and coastal nations in the region, climate change will have a significant effect on agriculture, water resources are sensitive to changes in average climate conditions and to tropical monsoons and cyclones, and forests could be significantly affected by climate change. The workshop recommended that efforts to improve general circulation models continue and that countries in the region cooperate on the analyses of vulnerability and addressing adaptation measures. The workshop also concluded that results of vulnerability and adaptation assessments should be presented to policy makers and the public and that assessments continue to be undertaken to improve our understanding of the issue. NR 0 TC 3 J9 WATER AIR SOIL POLLUT BP 1 EP 12 PY 1996 PD SEP VL 92 IS 1-2 GA VM538 UT ISI:A1996VM53800003 ER PT J AU Forbes, BC Fresco, N Shvidenko, A Danell, K Chapin, FS TI Geographic variations in anthropogenic drivers that influence the vulnerability and resilience of social-ecological systems SO AMBIO LA English DT Article C1 Univ Lapland, Arctic Ctr, FIN-96101 Rovaniemi, Finland. RP Forbes, BC, Univ Lapland, Arctic Ctr, FIN-96101 Rovaniemi, Finland. AB Across the circumpolar North large disparities in the distribution of renewable and nonrenewable resources, human population density, capital investments, and basic residential and transportation infrastructure combine to create recognizable hotspots of recent and foreseeable change. Northern Fennoscandia exemplifies a relatively benign situation due to its current economic and political stability. Northern Russia is experiencing rapid, mostly negative changes reflecting the general state of crisis since the collapse of the Soviet Union. North America enjoys a relatively stable regulatory structure to mitigate environmental degradation associated with industry, but is on the verge of approving massive new development schemes that would significantly expand the spatial extent of potentially affected social-ecological systems. Institutional or regulatory context influences the extent to which ecosystem services are buffered against environmental change. With or without a warming climate, certain geographic areas appear especially vulnerable to damages that may threaten their ability to supply goods and services in the near future. Climate change may exacerbate this situation in some places but may offer opportunities to enhance resilience in the long term. 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CR ALLEN PM, 1983, BIOSYSTEMS, V16, P113 ALLEN TFH, 1982, HIERARCHY PERSPECTIV BURTON I, 1978, ENV HAZARD, V1, P1 CLARK WC, 1979, ECOL MODEL, V7, P1 FIERING MB, 1974, AGROECOSYSTEMS, V1, P301 FIERING MB, 1982, WATER RESOUR RES, V18, P27 FIERING MB, 1982, WATER RESOUR RES, V18, P33 HOLLING CS, 1973, ANNUAL REV ECOLOGY S, V4, P1 HOLLING CS, 1976, BEHAV SCI, V3, P183 HOLLING CS, 1977, 1976 P S FUT STRAT E, P36 HOLLING CS, 1986, SUSTAINABLE DEV BIOS, V1, P1 LEVINS R, 1968, EVOLUTION CHANGING E LORENZ EN, 1964, TELLUS, V16, P1 NICOLIS G, 1977, SELF ORG NONEQUILIBR PETERMAN RM, 1979, POPULATION DYNAMICS, P321 SCHUMPETER JA, 1950, CAPITALISM SOCIALISM STEELE JH, 1974, NATURE, P248 NR 17 TC 34 J9 EUR J OPER RES BP 139 EP 146 PY 1987 PD JUN VL 30 IS 2 GA H8282 UT ISI:A1987H828200008 ER PT J AU White, GF TI Emerging issues in global environmental policy SO AMBIO LA English DT Article RP White, GF, UNIV COLORADO,BOULDER,CO 80309. AB Among the issues that deserve attention in the setting of global environmental policy in the near future are three that require both nongovernment and government examination. They are: i) finding adequate means to define new problems; ii) carrying out incisive and comprehensive audits of the effectiveness of programs completed or under way; and iii) developing means of reconciling the diverse communities and values involved in designing and evaluating new programs cf study and action. 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AB The frequency of major floods in Argentina appears to be increasing rapidly. At the same time, human vulnerability to flood hazard is gradually rising because of economically induced population movement. The World Bank is assisting the Argentine government in promoting more sustainable flood-alleviation strategies, based on the control of land use in floodplain areas. But many circumstances make the implementation of such an approach highly problematic. The case study demonstrates the value of broad-scale models that emphasize the context of hazard-response decisions as a complex mixture of physical, demographic, political, and economic variables. 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Univ Padua, Dipartimento Sci Zootechn, I-35020 Legnaro, Italy. RP Giupponi, C, Univ Milan, Dipartimento Prod Vegetale, Via Celoria 2, I-20133 Milan, Italy. AB This paper presents a synthesis of the results of the ACCELERATES project (Assessing Climate Change Effects on Land Use and Ecosystems from Regional Analysis to the European Scale), obtained in the case study of the Belluno province (north-east Italy), a context chosen as representative of the Alpine area. Selected results of the analysis of the relationships between future scenarios of change, farming systems, land use and biodiversity are presented. An initial historical analysis of the dynamics of land use with respect to the agricultural, socio-economic and demographic dynamics identified the main drivers of change and the positive and negative factors for conservation of the rural land and of biodiversity. In a subsequent stage the scenarios of future climate and land use changes were used to analyse the future for the species selected as indicators of biodiversity in the studied area. The results obtained provided useful information for the identification of suitable agri-environmental policies at the local scale. Maintenance of the livestock production systems typical of mountain agriculture is shown to be the key factor for contrasting land abandonment and the consequent expansion of woodlands, with negative effects in terms of simplification of landscape and impacts on species of naturalistic interest. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *ACCELERATES, 2004, FIN REP *IPCC, 2000, SUMM POL EM SCEN *ISTAT, 1981, 12 CENS GEN POP AB *ISTAT, 1982, 3 CENS GEN AGR *ISTAT, 2001, 14 CENS GEN POP AB *ISTAT, 2002, 5 CENS GEN AGR *REG VEN GIUNT REG, 1985, CART VOC FAUN CUR DI *SAS STAT, 1990, US GUID VERS 6, V2 *WCED, 1987, OUR COMM FUT ABILDTRUP J, 2006, ENVIRON SCI POLICY, V9, P101 DELFAVERO R, 2002, SINTESI SISTEMA INFO EASTMAN JR, 2004, IDRISI KILIMANJARO G GIUPPONI C, 2005, PROGETTO PROGETTO AC MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 MITCHELL TD, 2004, COMPREHENSIVE SET HI PAOLETTI MG, 1999, AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON, V74, P1 PEBESMA EJ, 1998, COMPUT GEOSCI, V24, P17 ROMERO C, 1989, MULTIPLE CRITERIA AN ROSATO P, 2003, CLIMATE CHANGE MEDIT SALA G, 1989, ALLA SCOPERTA TERRIT NR 20 TC 2 J9 ENVIRON SCI POLICY BP 163 EP 173 PY 2006 VL 9 IS 2 GA 028TG UT ISI:000236511100006 ER PT J AU WESTING, AH TI ERITREAN NATIONAL CODE OF CONDUCT FOR ENVIRONMENTAL SECURITY SO ENVIRONMENTAL CONSERVATION LA English DT Editorial Material RP WESTING, AH, WESTING ASSOCIATES,RFD 2,BOX 330H,PUTNEY,VT 05346. NR 0 TC 0 J9 ENVIRON CONSERV BP 78 EP 78 PY 1995 PD SPR VL 22 IS 1 GA RK996 UT ISI:A1995RK99600017 ER PT J AU [Anon] TI Global warming: New scenarios from the intergovernmental panel on climate change SO POPULATION AND DEVELOPMENT REVIEW LA English DT Article AB The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was set up in 1988 by the World Meteorological Organization and the United Nations Environment Programme to review the stare of knowledge about human-induced climate change and assess possible responses. Most of its activities are conducted by three working groups, concerned respectively with scientific aspects of the climate system, with the vulnerability of human and natural systems to climate change, and with options for mitigating that change. The major IPCC reports have been highly detailed statements of scientific consensus on changes in the climate system, issued at roughly five-year intervals. These reflect the input of some hundreds of scientists, with drafts scrutinized by expert reviewers, revised to attain consensus, and eventually approved (or "accepted") by the full Panel. The first such assessment, published in 1990, was influential in formulating the Framework Convention on Climate Change adopted at the 1992 Rio conference. The second assessment report (SAR), Climate Change 1995, produced the winery cited estimate that global warming would raise average temperatures by 1 degrees- 3.5 degreesC by 2100, with a "best estimate " of 2 degreesC, and produce a sea-level rise of 0.13 - 0.94 meters. That report took the further step of explicitly linking the warming to anthropogenic (human-caused) emissions of greenhouse gases. Its cautious conclusion: "The balance of evidence suggests a discernible human influence on global climate. NR 0 TC 0 J9 POP DEVELOP REV BP 203 EP 208 PY 2001 PD MAR VL 27 IS 1 GA 414XZ UT ISI:000167692600014 ER PT J AU Patt, A Klein, RJT de la Vega-Leinert, A TI Taking the uncertainty in climate-change vulnerability assessment seriously SO COMPTES RENDUS GEOSCIENCE LA English DT Article C1 Boston Univ, Dept Geog, Boston, MA 02215 USA. Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res, D-14412 Potsdam, Germany. RP Patt, A, Boston Univ, Dept Geog, 675 Commonwealth Ave, Boston, MA 02215 USA. AB Climate-change vulnerability assessment has become a frequently employed tool, with the purpose of informing policy-makers attempting to adapt to global change conditions. However, we suggest that there are three reasons to suspect that vulnerability assessment often promises more certainty, and more useful results, than it can deliver. First, the complexity of the system it purports to describe is greater than that described by other types of assessment. Second, it is difficult, if not impossible, to obtain data to test proposed interactions between different vulnerability drivers. Third, the time scale of analysis is too long to be able to make robust projections about future adaptive capacity. We analyze the results from a stakeholder workshop in a European vulnerability assessment, and find evidence to support these arguments. To cite this article: A. Patt et al., C. R. Geoscience 337 (2005). (c) 2004 Academie des sciences. Published by Elsevier SAS. All rights reserved. CR *IFRC, 2000, COUNTR ASS STRAT 200 *OECD, 1981, COSTS BEN SULPH DIOX *SOC LEARN GROUP, 2001, LEARN MAN GLOB ENV R, V1 *UN ECE, 1990, EC BEN CLEAN ENV ARNELL NW, 1999, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V9, P5 ARTHUR WB, 1994, AM ECON REV, V84, P406 AXTELL RL, 2002, P NATL ACAD SCI U S3, V99, P7275 BARABASI AL, 2002, LINKED NEW SCI NETWO BERRY BJL, 2002, P NATL ACAD SCI U S3, V99, P7187 BOWDEN MJ, 1981, CLIMATE HIST STUDIES BRADBURY R, 2002, COMPLEXITY ECOSYSTEM, P48 BRUNNER RD, 1999, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V62, P73 CARTER T, 1994, IPCC TECHNICAL GUIDE CLARK WC, OUR COMMON JOURNEY T CUTTER SL, 2001, INT HUMAN DIMENSIONS, V1, P8 DILLEY M, 2001, FOOD POLICY, V26, P229 EPSTEIN JM, 1996, GROWING ARTIFICIAL S EZRAHI Y, 1990, DESCENT ICARUS SCI T FUSSEL HM, IN PRESS CLIM CHANGE GLANTZ M, 2003, CLIMATE AFFAIRS HOFFMANNRIEM H, 2002, NATURE, V416, P123 JONES RN, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P403 JONES RN, 2001, NAT HAZARDS, V23, P197 KASPERSON RE, 2001, INT HUMAN DIMENSIONS, V1, P2 KATES RW, 2001, SCIENCE, V292, P641 KELLY PM, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V47, P325 KLASSEN G, 1989, EC PRINCIPLES ALLOCA KLEIN RJT, 1999, AMBIO, V28, P182 KLEIN RJT, 2001, J COASTAL RES, V17, P531 KUNREUTHER HC, 1996, J RISK UNCERTAINTY, V12, P171 LANSING JS, 1991, PRIESTS PROGRAMMERS LANSING JS, 2003, ANNU REV ANTHROPOL, V32, P183 LEMPERT RJ, 2002, P NATL ACAD SCI U S3, V99, P7309 LEWIN R, 1992, COMPLEXITY LIFE EDGE LUERS AL, 2003, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V13, P255 MARTENS WJM, 1997, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V35, P145 MCBEAN G, 2004, NAT HAZARDS, V31, P177 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 MENDELSOHN R, 1998, IMPACTS CLIMATE CHAN METZGER MJ, UNPUB REGIONAL ENV C MORGAN MG, 1990, UNCERTAINTY GUIDE DE MORGAN MG, 1995, ENVIRON SCI TECHNOL, V29, P468 MOSS R, 2000, IPCC SUPPORTING MAT, P33 NICHOLLS RJ, 1999, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHA S, V9, S69 NORDHAUS W, 1994, MANAGING GLOBAL COMM OBRIEN KL, 2004, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V64, P193 ONEILL BC, 2002, SCIENCE, V296, P1971 PARRY ML, 1998, CLIMATE IMPACT ADAPT PATT A, 2001, TRANSBOUNDARY RISK M, P91 PATT AG, 1999, POLICY STUD REV, V16, P103 PITTOCK AB, 2001, NATURE, V413, P249 RIBOT JC, 2002, DEMOCRATIC DECENTRAL, P30 ROSENZWEIG C, 1994, NATURE, V367, P133 SCHELLNHUBER HJ, 1999, NATURE S, V402, C19 SCHROTER D, IN PRESS MITIGATION SCHULTZ W, 1985, BESSERE LUFT IST SIE SEN AK, 1981, POVERTY FAMINES ESSA, V1, P1 STERN P, 1999, MAKIGN CLIMATE FOREC STIGLITZ J, 2002, GLOBALIZATION ITS DI SWART RJ, 2004, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V14, P137 TURNER BLI, 2003, P NATL ACAD SCI, V100 WALDROP MM, 1992, COMPLEXITY EMERGING WATSON RT, 1998, REGIONAL IMPACTS CLI, V1, P1 WEBSTER M, 2003, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V61, P1 WEBSTER M, 2003, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V61, P295 WYNNE B, 1996, MISUNDERSTANDING SCI, P19 NR 66 TC 6 J9 C R GEOSCI BP 411 EP 424 PY 2005 PD MAR VL 337 IS 4 GA 913IO UT ISI:000228145100003 ER PT J AU Magistro, J Lo, MD TI Historical and human dimensions of climate variability and water resource constraint in the Senegal River Valley SO CLIMATE RESEARCH LA English DT Article C1 Int Dev Enterprises, Lakewood, CO 80215 USA. Ctr Suivi Ecol, Dakar, Senegal. RP Magistro, J, Int Dev Enterprises, 10403 W Colfax Ave,Suite 500, Lakewood, CO 80215 USA. AB This paper provides a case study from the northern Senegal wetlands documenting trends in inter-annual and seasonal climate variability during the past century as well as human vulnerability and adaptation to anomalous climate events. A secular decline in precipitation during the past 3 decades has resulted in the construction of 2 dams on the Senegal River in the 1980s and an interstate river basin development strategy to develop hydroelectricity, irrigation farming, and a navigable waterway. Current agro-ecological production systems dependent on a seasonal riparian flood cycle could be curtailed in trying to meet these development objectives, Two hydrological time flow series illustrating the importance of inter-annual and seasonal climate variability for the region are used to weigh the costs and benefits of competing water use scenarios for end users. CR *A GIBB PARTN EL F, 1987, STUD MAN OMVS COMM W *GERSAR CACG EUROC, 1988, PLAN DIR DEV INT RIV *GERSAR CACG EUROC, 1989, PLAN DIR DEV INT RIV *OMVS DAM MOOR INT, 1989, 6250621 OMVSUSAID *OMVS INT SCI TECH, 1990, 6250958 OMVSUSAID, V2 *OMVS ORSTOM, 1997, ETUD OPT GEST AM OMV *OMVS, 1978, GANN FLEM CORDRRY CA *WORLD BANK, 1997, 16083 AFR WORLD BANK *WORLD RES I UN EN, 1998, WORLD RES 1998 99 GU ADAMS WM, 1985, T I BRIT GEOGR, V10, P292 ALBERGEL J, 1993, SECHERESSE, V4, P143 BASS B, 1995, CLIMATE CHANGE WORLD, P485 CHARNEY J, 1975, Q J ROY METEOR SOC, V101, P193 CHASSAING I, 1992, J PHYS IV, V2, P127 CITEAU J, 1989, METEOROL ATMOS PHYS, V41, P181 CITEAU J, 1992, THESIS U P SABATIER CLARK A, 1995, J AFR HIST, V36, P97 COCKCROFT MJ, 1987, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V10, P161 DOW KM, 1992, GEOFORUM, V23, P417 GILRUTH PT, 1990, PHOTOGRAMM ENG REM S, V56, P1375 GLANTZ MH, 1988, SOCIETAL RESPONSES R GLANTZ MH, 1992, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V2, P183 GROSENICK G, 1990, PDC5517113713600 HOLLIS GE, WATER MANAGEMENT WET, V155, P96 HOLLIS GE, 1990, 56 SRBMAIIDA HOROWITZ MM, 1989, DEV ANTHR NETWORK, V7, P1 HOROWITZ MM, 1991, SENEGAL RIVER BASIN HOROWITZ MM, 1993, GEOJOURNAL, V30, P179 HULME M, 2001, CLIM RES ILIFFE J, 1990, FAMINE ZIMBABWE 1890 ILLY P, 1973, ETUDE HYDROGEOLOGIQU LAMAGAT JP, 1996, COMPARAISON TROIS SC LAZENBY J, 1994, INTEGRATED RIVER BAS, P503 MAGISTRO J, 1993, CAH ETUD AFR, P201 MAGISTRO J, 1994, THEIS BINGHAMTON U MAGISTRO J, 1995, 94 ANN M AM ANTHR AS MICHEL P, 1985, REV GEOMORPHOL DYNAM, V4, P113 NIASSE M, 1990, DEV ANTHR NETWORK, V8, P6 NICHOLSON SE, 1979, J AFR HIST, V20, P31 NICHOLSON SE, 1980, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V2, P313 NICHOLSON SE, 1989, UNDERSTANDING CLIMAT, P79 NICHOLSON SE, 1993, INT J CLIMATOL, V13, P371 NICHOLSON SE, 1993, J CLIMATE, V6, P1463 NICHOLSON SE, 1997, INT J CLIMATOL, V17, P117 NICHOLSON SE, 1997, INT J CLIMATOL, V17, P345 NICHOLSON SE, 1997, J CLIMATE, V10, P2981 NICHOLSON SE, 1998, B AM METEOROL SOC, V79, P815 RAYNOR S, 1998, HUMAN CHOICE CLIMATE RIBOT JC, 1996, CLIMATE VARIABILITY, V1, P1 ROPELEWSKI CF, 1987, MON WEATHER REV, V115, P1606 ROPELEWSKI CF, 1989, J CLIMATE, V2, P268 ROWELL DP, 1995, Q J ROY METEOR SOC, V121, P669 SEMAZZI FHM, 1988, ATMOS OCEAN, V26, P118 SIRCOULON J, 1990, WCAP12 WMOTD SMIT B, 1996, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V33, P7 SMITHERS J, 1997, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V7, P129 STERN PC, 1992, GLOBAL ENV CHANGE UN TARDIFDOUGLIN D, 1998, 16 RSAPAPAP UPAAPAP VANLAVIEREN B, 1990, PROFIL ENV VALLEE FL VENEMA HD, 1997, J ENVIRON MANAGE, V49, P125 WEIGEL JY, 1982, 146 ORSTOM WOLTER K, 1989, J CLIMATE, V2, P149 WOODHOUSE P, 1990, 20 DPP OP U TECHN FA NR 63 TC 0 J9 CLIMATE RES BP 133 EP 147 PY 2001 PD DEC 4 VL 19 IS 2 GA 521BZ UT ISI:000173820000005 ER PT J AU Barnett, J Adger, WN TI Climate dangers and atoll countries SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 Univ Melbourne, Sch Anthropol Geog & Environm Studies, Melbourne, Vic 3010, Australia. Univ E Anglia, Tyndall Ctr Climate Change Res, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. Univ E Anglia, Sch Environm Sci, CSERGE, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. RP Barnett, J, Univ Melbourne, Sch Anthropol Geog & Environm Studies, Melbourne, Vic 3010, Australia. AB Climate change-induced sea-level rise, sea-surface warming, and increased frequency and intensity of extreme weather events puts the long-term ability of humans to inhabit atolls at risk. We argue that this risk constitutes a dangerous level of climatic change to atoll countries by potentially undermining their national sovereignty. We outline the novel challenges this presents to both climate change research and policy. For research, the challenge is to identify the critical thresholds of change beyond which atoll social-ecological systems may collapse. We explain how thresholds may be behaviorally driven as well as ecologically driven through the role of expectations in resource management. The challenge for the international policy process, centred on the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), is to recognize the particular vulnerability of atoll countries by operationalising international norms of justice, sovereignty, and human and national security in the regime. 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AB Global environmental change is one of the most significant research and policy issues facing humankind. Although vast financial and human resources are being allocated to climate change research, there are numerous knowledge gaps between understanding climate variations and human responses, particularly in the area of farm adaptation. In this paper, we argue that four issues need to be addressed, in order to narrow these gaps. First, greater attention needs to be directed towards impact assessment. Second, future researchers should consider critical methodologies and theories clearly articulated in cognate disciplines. Third, we need to have an improved understanding of how present agriculture adapts to both climatic and societal forces. Lastly, we need to have an improved understanding of the decision-making process. We address these issues by drawing upon three areas of research: (i) the climate change and impact assessment literature; (ii) the natural hazards literature; and (iii) the agricultural restructuring literature, drawn primarily from the disciplines of rural geography and rural sociology. From a review of this literature, we argue that each area provides an incomplete assessment of the relationship between climate change and agriculture in developed countries. Consequently, we conclude that an approach which situates farm-level decision making in relation to both broad structural (including biophysical) and internal forces, provides for a greater understanding of the nexus between climate change and farm adaptation. 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1986, SCOPE, V28, P393 WATTS MJ, 1983, INTERPRETATIONS CALA, P231 WATTS MJ, 1983, SILENT VIOLENCE FOOD WHATMORE S, 1987, SOCIOL RURALIS, V27, P21 WHEATON EE, 1994, E29007E93 SASK RES C WHITE GF, 1945, 29 U CHIC DEP GEOGR WHITE GF, 1964, 93 U CHIC DEP GEOGR WILLIAMS GDV, 1988, IMPACT CLIMATIC VARI, V1, P219 WOO MK, 1992, CAN GEOGR, V36, P66 NR 130 TC 14 J9 J RURAL STUD BP 335 EP 350 PY 1995 PD JUL VL 11 IS 3 GA TG687 UT ISI:A1995TG68700009 ER PT J AU Futselaar, H Schonewille, H de Vente, D Broens, L TI NORIT AirLift MBR: side-stream system for municipal waste water treatment SO DESALINATION LA English DT Article C1 NORIT Process Technol BV, NL-7500 AS Enschede, Netherlands. NORIT Membrane Technol BV, NL-7500 AS Enschede, Netherlands. Water Author Regge & Dinkel, NL-7600 GA Almelo, Netherlands. RP Futselaar, H, NORIT Process Technol BV, PO 741, NL-7500 AS Enschede, Netherlands. AB The Ootmarsum wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) is owned by the water authority Regge & Dinkel (WRD) and is situated in the municipality of Dinkelland (eastern part of The Netherlands). The WWTP must be modernised, because it discharges the treated wastewater into a water system with considerable ecological vulnerability. In the restructuring plan the urban water chain/cycle was integrated into an ecological water management approach. In cooperation with Grontmij engineering consultants a design study was carried out resulting in the choice for a so-called hybrid system. Such a system combines a conventional system followed by a sand filter with a membrane bioreactor (MBR). With a hybrid MBR, the costs can be reduced relatively to those of a complete MBR plant without making concessions in terms of effluent quality. After an intensive selection procedure NORIT Membrane Technology (NMT) was selected with the novel NORIT AirLift MBR system. The construction work of the 650 m(3)/h plant started in mid-2005 and will be completed by late 2006; start-up of the full scale will be early 2007. As preparation for the full scale plant operation an intensive pilot study is currently being performed in order to develop a start-up protocol, to train operators, to check control philosophies, and to optimise the overall processing. CR FUTSELAAR H, 2004, P MEMBR DRINK IND WA, P15 NR 1 TC 0 J9 DESALINATION BP 1 EP 7 PY 2007 PD FEB 5 VL 204 IS 1-3 GA 142TH UT ISI:000244672500001 ER PT J AU Madelene, OA Chen, DL TI Land-use change: Impacts of climate variations and policies among small-scale farmers in the Loess Plateau, China SO LAND USE POLICY LA English DT Article C1 Univ Gothenburg, Dept Earth Sci, S-40530 Gothenburg, Sweden. Univ Gothenburg, Ctr Earth Sci, Reg Climate Grp, S-40530 Gothenburg, Sweden. China Meteorol Adm, Natl Climate Ctr, Lab Climate Studies, Beijing, Peoples R China. RP Madelene, OA, Univ Gothenburg, Dept Earth Sci, POB 460, S-40530 Gothenburg, Sweden. AB Changes are taking place in many developing countries causing land-use change. In China there has been enormous economic growth since 1978 followed by impacts on the environmental, social and economical conduct of the society. One of the counter actions taken by the Government to halt the environmental degradation in the Loess Plateau has been the introduction of the Slope Land Conversion Program/Crop Conversion Program in 1999, stopping agricultural activity in slope areas, mainly used by small-scale farmers. At the same time climate variations have also been evident in the area, with decreases in rainfall and increases in temperature since 1970. The aim here is to examine what vegetation changes are seen at the regional scale in the area from 2000 to 2002 and how they correlate to local land-use changes. How the land-use changes are correlated with climate variations and/or policies and reforms is then investigated. The data included in this integrated assessment includes remote sensing information for the end of August from MODIS and ASTER images, climate and statistical data, as well as farmers' participatory data. The results show that the large-scale vegetation cover has increased, which correlates well with the dramatic local land-use change caused by the policy implementation. The land-use change shows some correlation with the climate variables (both lagged and simultaneous) but climatic factors alone do not fully explain the regional increase in vegetation. Hence the direct force behind the extreme land-use change is most likely associated with policy and economics, although climatic has some impact on regional scale vegetation pattern. The result from this study is contributing to the increasing growth of literature in climate change research on the complex issue of multiple stressors, i.e. processes that many areas in the developing world are exposed to. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *FAO UNESCO, 1997, SOIL MAP WORLD MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 *NAT CLIM CTR, 2000, ASS SYST IMP CLIM AN *TBRS, 2003, MODIS 6 US GUID ABRAMS M, 2000, INT J REMOTE SENS, V21, P847 BAO SM, 2002, CHINA ECON REV, V13, P89 BERG L, 1998, QUALITATIVE RES METH BERNARD H, 1995, RES METHODS ANTHR QU BOLES SH, 2004, REMOTE SENS ENVIRON, V90, P477 BURROUGHS WJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE MULTI DEMURGER S, 2002, GEOGRAPHY EC POLICY DING Y, 1994, MONSOON OVER CHINA FU CB, 2003, GLOBAL PLANET CHANGE, V37, P219 FUNG T, 2000, INT J REMOTE SENS, V21, P1011 GUO ZH, 2001, ACTA BOT SIN, V43, P857 HAGEBACK J, 2005, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V72, P189 HEILIG GK, 2000, INT J SUST DEV WORLD, V7, P153 HU W, 1997, LAND USE POLICY, V14, P175 HUETE A, 2002, REMOTE SENS ENVIRON, V83, P195 JUSTICE CO, 2002, REMOTE SENS ENVIRON, V83, P3 KNUTSSON P, 2003, P INT S CLIM CHANG I LIN GCS, 1999, INT J URBAN REGIONAL, V23, P670 LIU GB, 1999, AMBIO, V28, P663 LIU J, 2002, LAND USE CHANGE UPPE LU M, 2002, GROWTH CHANGE, V33, P42 LUO QY, 1999, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V43, P729 MCELROY MB, 1998, ENERGIZING CHINA REC MEARNS LO, 1997, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V35, P367 NAGLER PL, 2005, REMOTE SENS ENVIRON, V94, P17 OBRIEN KL, 2000, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V10, P221 OSTWALD M, 2000, J TROP FOR SCI, V12, P778 OSTWALD M, 2004, IMPACT CLIMATE CHANG, C61 RAWSKI TG, 2001, CHINA ECON REV, V12, P298 RUI L, 2001, CASE STUDY CONVERSIO SKINNER MW, 2001, LAND USE POLICY, V18, P329 SMIT B, 1996, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V6, P205 SMIT B, 1999, MITIGATION ADAPTATIO, V4, P199 SMITH B, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P223 WANG J, 2001, J ARID ENVIRON, V48, P537 WU YQ, 2003, CATENA, V54, P7 YAMAGUCHI Y, 2001, ADV SPACE RES, V28, P69 YANG H, 2000, LAND USE POLICY, V17, P73 YANG YZ, 1997, WORLD ECON, V20, P913 YEH AGO, 1999, HABITAT INT, V23, P373 YU F, 2004, INT J REMOTE SENS, V25, P327 NR 45 TC 0 J9 LAND USE POLICY BP 361 EP 371 PY 2006 PD OCT VL 23 IS 4 GA 067SG UT ISI:000239322300001 ER PT J AU Mock, G Steele, P TI Tapping the wealth of ecosystems SO ENVIRONMENT LA English DT Article CR *FAO, STAT FOOD AGR 2003 2 *FAO, 2005, 31 SESS COMM WORLD F, P2 *IFAD, 2001, RUR POV REP 2001 *INT MON FUND IMF, 2004, REP EV POV RED STRAT, P3 *MEA, 2005, EC HUM WELL BEING SY, V7, P48 *ROYAL GOV CAMB, 2002, NAT POV RED STRAT 20, P53 *UN, 2002, GEN ASS RIO DECL ENV *UNDP, 2005, MON COUNTR PROGR MDG, P3 *UNDP, 2005, WORLD RES 2005 WEALT, P5 *USAID, 2002, NAT WEALTH POW EM BE *WORLD BANK, 2003, REACH RUR POOR REN, P1 *WRI UNDP UNEP WOR, 2003, WORLD RES 2002 2004, P44 AGARWAL A, 1999, EU UNDP C BRUSS FEBR BARDHAN P, 1991, EC THEORY AGRARIAN I, P240 BARR CM, 1998, INDONESIA, V65, P30 BECK T, 2001, WORLD DEV, V29, P119 BENE C, 2003, WORLD DEV, V31, P964 BENJAMINSEN T, 2000, PRODUCING NATURE POV, P97 BOJO J, 2003, 92 WORLD BANK ENV, P3 BOJO J, 2004, 102 WORLD BANK ENV D, R12 BORSUK R, 2003, WALL STREET J, P1 BROWN K, 2000, DEV CHANGE, V31, P201 CAIRNCROSS S, 2003, HLTH ENV BURDEN DIS, P2 CHEN S, 2005, 3341 POL RES WORK, P24 DEI G, 1992, DEV WITHIN SURVIVAL, P67 DENAVASWALT C, 2004, INCOME POVERTY HLTH DURAIAPPAH A, 2004, POV EC SERV ELLIS F, 2003, WORLD DEV, V31, P1003 HUFBAUER G, 2003, MILKEN I REV, V31, P33 IRZ X, 2001, DEV POLICY REV, V19, P449 JODHA NS, 1986, ECON POLIT WEEKLY, V21, P1169 KAKWANI N, 2004, FOCUS JAN KAUFMANN D, 1999, 2196 POL RES WORK KERR J, 2002, 127 IFPRI KURA Y, 2004, FISHING ANSWERS MAKI, P36 KURIEN J, 1992, GRASSROOTS ENV ACTIO, P238 LAMPIETTI J, 1995, SEE FOREST TREES GUI, P1 LENSELINK N, 2002, 432 FAO LENSELINK N, 2004, NEW APPROACHES SHARE, P4 LVOVSKY K, 2001, 1 ENV STRAT MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 MCNEILL J, 2000, SOMTHING NEW SUN ENV, P347 MEINZENDICK R, 2004, COLLECTIVE ACTION PR, P1 MORRIS J, 2002, 31C IUCN NARAYAN D, 2000, VOICES POOR CAN ANYO, P49 NARAYAN D, 2002, VOICES POOR MANY LAN, P58 OSTROM E, 1990, GOVERNING COMMONS, P30 PAGIOLA S, 2004, 101 WORLD BANK, P15 REED R, 2001, POVERTY IS NUMBER EN, P7 SMITH L, 2002, AGR GROWTH POVERTY R THOMAS V, 2000, QUALITY GROWTH TIMMER CP, 1988, HDB DEV EC, V1, P276 XU J, 2002, IMPLEMENTING NATURAL, P6 YARDLEY J, 2004, NEW YORK TIMES 0913 NR 54 TC 0 J9 ENVIRONMENT BP 8 EP 23 PY 2006 PD JAN-FEB VL 48 IS 1 GA 004YU UT ISI:000234789400003 ER PT J AU Waterstone, M TI Better safe than sorry, or bettor safe, then sorry? SO ANNALS OF THE ASSOCIATION OF AMERICAN GEOGRAPHERS LA English DT Article C1 Univ Arizona, Dept Geog & Reg Dev, Tucson, AZ 85721 USA. RP Waterstone, M, Univ Arizona, Dept Geog & Reg Dev, Tucson, AZ 85721 USA. CR ARONOWITZ S, 1988, SCI POWER DISCOURSE DOW KM, 1992, GEOFORUM, V23, P417 NOZICK R, 1993, NATURE RATIONALTY SHRADERFRECHETT.K, 1993, METHOD ECOLOGY STRAT TAYLOR PJ, 1992, GEOFORUM, V23, P405 WATERSTONE M, 1985, GEOFORUM, V16, P301 WATERSTONE M, 1993, ENVIRON MANAGE, V17, P141 NR 7 TC 0 J9 ANN ASSN AMER GEOGR BP 297 EP 300 PY 1998 PD JUN VL 88 IS 2 GA ZN364 UT ISI:000073638500008 ER PT J AU Lorenzoni, I Jordan, A ORiordan, T Turner, RK Hulme, M TI A co-evolutionary approach to climate change impact assessment: Part II. A scenario-based case study in East Anglia (UK) SO GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS LA English DT Article C1 Univ E Anglia, Ctr Social & Econ Res Global Environm, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. Univ Coll London, London WC1E 6BT, England. Univ E Anglia, Sch Environm Sci, Climat Res Unit, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. RP Lorenzoni, I, Univ E Anglia, Ctr Social & Econ Res Global Environm, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. AB Policy makers are beginning to intensify their search for policies that assist society to adapt to the unfolding impacts of climate change at the local level. This paper forms the second part of a two part examination of the potential for using scenarios in adaptation and vulnerability assessment. Part I explained how climate change and socio-economic scenarios can be integrated to better understand the complex inter-relationships between a changing climate and a dynamically evolving social system. This second part describes how a broadly representative sample of public, private and voluntary organisations in the East Anglian region of the UK responded to the scenarios, and identifies future research priorities. The main findings are that integrated socio-economic and climate scenarios applied 'bottom up' to locally important stakeholders: (1) provide a sophisticated and dynamic mechanism to explore the potential feedbacks between natural and human systems; (2) offer a means to understand the vulnerability and adaptive capacity of different exposure units; (3) promote social learning by encouraging participants to assess the adequacy of their existing climate strategies for longer than their normal planning periods. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *CLIM CHANG IMP RE, 1996, REV POT EFF CLIM CHA *OST, 1999, DTIPUB40151K399NPURN *SCEALA, 1998, STAND C E ANGL LOC A *SCEALA, 1999, LOND S E REG PLANN C ADGER WN, 1999, WORLD DEV, V27, P247 KELLY PM, 1999, 9907 CSERGE U E ANGL LORENZONI I, IN PRESS GLOBAL ENV PARRY ML, 1998, CLIMATE IMPACT ADAPT PULLINGER J, 1998, REGIONJAL TRENDS 33 SCHNEIDER SH, 1997, ENVIRON MODEL ASSESS, V2, P229 TURNER RK, 1995, ENVIRON PLANN A, V27, P1777 NR 11 TC 5 J9 GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANGE BP 145 EP 155 PY 2000 PD JUL VL 10 IS 2 GA 353TW UT ISI:000089292400006 ER PT J AU Middelkoop, H Kwadijk, JCJ TI Towards integrated assessment of the implications of global change for water management - The Rhine experience SO PHYSICS AND CHEMISTRY OF THE EARTH PART B-HYDROLOGY OCEANS AND ATMOSPHERE LA English DT Article C1 Univ Utrecht, Dept Phys Geog, NL-3508 TC Utrecht, Netherlands. WL Delfthydraul Delft, Delft, Netherlands. RP Middelkoop, H, Univ Utrecht, Dept Phys Geog, POB 80115, NL-3508 TC Utrecht, Netherlands. AB The rivers Rhine and Meuse fulfil important socio-economic and environmental functions for their riparian states. Even under present-day conditions, the demands for flood protection, inland navigation, ecology, hydropower, water availability for agriculture, industry and drinking water are high. Climate change is expected to enhance discrepancies between water supply and demand in the Rhine and Meuse rivers. This issue has been investigated in a sequence of climate-impact studies in the Rhine and Meuse basins. These studies firstly focused at hydrological changes. Subsequently, a detailed impact assessment of the demands and vulnerability of the user functions of the water systems in the Netherlands was carried out. In an ongoing project we will establish a set of integrated scenarios for the Rhine and Meuse basins, representing different world-views, based on the so-called Perspectives method. Using these scenarios we attempt to define water management strategies that are robust under uncertainty. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *NW4, 1997, KLIM BOD GEV WAT NED BUITEVELD H, 1999, 99066 RIZA GRABS W, 1997, 116 CHR HAASNOOT M, 1999, 99049 RIZA HULME M, 1994, 1961 1990 BAS LIN CL KONNEN GP, 1996, TOESTAND KLIMAAT NED KONNEN GP, 1997, METEOROLOGIE BEHAEVE KWADIJK JCJ, 1993, THESIS NETHERLANDS G, P171 MIDDELKOOP H, 2000, 0004 2000010ICG UTR MIDDELKOOP H, 2000, IN PRESS CLIMATIC CH ROTMANS J, 1997, PERSPECTIVES GLOBAL VANDEURSEN WPA, 1999, MEUSEFLOW2 CARTH CON VANDEURSEN WPA, 1999, RHINEFLOW2 CARTH CON VEENEKLAAS FR, 1994, 854 DLO WIN STAR CTR NR 14 TC 1 J9 PHYS CHEM EARTH P B-HYDROL OC BP 553 EP 560 PY 2001 VL 26 IS 7-8 GA 450YA UT ISI:000169771400010 ER PT J AU Farmani, R Walters, G Savic, D TI Evolutionary multi-objective optimization of the design and operation of water distribution network: total cost vs. reliability vs. water quality SO JOURNAL OF HYDROINFORMATICS LA English DT Article C1 Univ Exeter, Sch Engn Comp Sci & Math, Ctr Water Syst, Exeter EX4 4QF, Devon, England. RP Farmani, R, Univ Exeter, Sch Engn Comp Sci & Math, Ctr Water Syst, Exeter EX4 4QF, Devon, England. AB An expanded rehabilitation of the hypothetical water distribution network of Anytown, USA is considered. AS well as pipe rehabilitation decisions, tank sizing, tank siting and pump operation schedules are considered as design variables. inclusion of pump operation schedules requires consideration of water system operation over the demand pattern period. Design of distribution storage facilities involves solving numerous issues and trade-offs such as locations, levels and volume. This paper investigates the application of multi-objective evolutionary algorithms in the identification of the pay-off characteristic between total cost, reliability and water quality of Anytown's water distribution system. A new approach is presented for formulation of the model. To provide flexibility, the network must be designed and operated under multiple loading conditions. The cost of the solution includes the capital costs of pipes and tanks as well as the present value of the energy consumed during a specified period. Optimization tends to reduce costs by reducing; the diameter of, or completely eliminating, pipes, thus leaving the system with insufficient capacity to respond to pipe breaks or demands that exceed design values without violating required performance levels. Here a resilience index is considered as a second objective to increase the hydraulic reliability and the availability of water during pipe failures. Considering reliability as one of the objectives in the optimization process will decrease the level of vulnerability for the solutions and therefore will result in robust networks. However, oversized distribution mains and storage tanks will have adverse effects on water age with negative effects on water quality due to low flow velocity and little turnover, respectively. Therefore, another objective in the design and operation of distribution systems with storage facilities is the minimization of residence time, thus minimizing deterioration in water quality, which is directly associated with the age of water. Residence time must include not only the time in tanks but also the travel time before and after the water's entry into the storage facilities. The residence time of the water in the network is considered as a surrogate measure of water quality. Results are presented for the pay-off characteristics between total cost, reliability and water quality, for 24 h design and five loading conditions. CR *AWWA AWWARF, 1992, WAT IND DAT UT PROF *CWS, 2004, BENCHM NETW DES OPT CHEUNG PB, 2003, ADV WATER SUPPLY MAN, P315 DANDY GC, 2001, P WORLD WAT ENV RES DEB K, 2000, 200001 IND I TECHN K DEB K, 2001, WILEY INTERSCIENCE S DENEUFVILLE R, 1971, J SANIT ENG DIV ASCE, V97, P825 DOBY TA, 2001, P 2001 WORLD WAT ENV FARMANI R, 2003, PUMPS ELECTROMECHANI, V1, P247 FARMANI R, 2005, ENG OPTIMIZ, V37, P167 FARMANI R, 2005, J WATER RES PL-ASCE, V131, P161 FONSECA CM, 1993, P INT C GEN ALG, V5, P416 GOLDBERG DE, 1989, GENETIC ALGORITHMS S HALHAL D, 1997, J WATER RES PL-ASCE, V123, P137 KAPELAN ZS, 2003, J WATER RES PL-ASCE, V129, P466 KNOWLES JD, 2000, EVOLUTIONARY COMPUTA, V8, P149 LANSEY KE, 1989, J HYDRAUL ENG-ASCE, V115, P1401 MALES RM, 1985, J HYDRAUL ENG-ASCE, V111, P206 MAYS LW, 2000, WATER DISTRIBUTION S MURPHY LJ, 1994, NATL C PUBLICATIONS, V1, P149 ROSSMAN LA, 2000, EPANET2 USERS MANUAL ROUHIAINEN CJ, 2003, ADV WATER SUPPLY MAN, P459 SAVIC DA, 1997, LECT NOTES COMPUTER, V1305, P227 SAVIC DA, 2002, P 1 BIENN M INT ENV, V1, P7 SCHAFFER JD, 1985, P 1 INT C GEN ALG TH, V1, P93 SRINIVAS N, 1994, EVOLUTIONARY COMPUTA, V2, P221 TODINI E, 2000, URBAN WATER, V2, P115 WALSKI TM, 1987, J WATER RES PL-ASCE, V113, P191 WALSKI TM, 2000, WATER DISTRIBUTION S, CH10 WALSKI TM, 2000, WATER DISTRIBUTION S, CH8 WALTERS GA, 1999, URBAN WATER, V1, P23 WU Z, 2002, WATER RESOURCES PLAN ZITZLER E, 1998, 43 ETH TIK COMP ENG NR 33 TC 0 J9 J HYDROINFORM BP 165 EP 179 PY 2006 PD JUL VL 8 IS 3 GA 065ON UT ISI:000239169300002 ER PT J AU Zeidler, RB TI Continental shorelines: climate change and integrated coastal management SO OCEAN & COASTAL MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article C1 Polish Acad Sci, Inst Hydroengn, IBW PAN, PL-80953 Gdansk, Poland. RP Zeidler, RB, Polish Acad Sci, Inst Hydroengn, IBW PAN, PL-80953 Gdansk, Poland. AB Two continental shorelines, of Poland and Vietnam, are presented in the context of their vulnerability to climate change, present and planned response strategies and steps toward integrated coastal management (ICM). The two cases illustrate a broad realm of possible effects and actions facing continental shorelines. The climate change issue is primarily centered around sea level rise in Vietnam but has been expanded to other domains in Poland. General ICM issues are treated under the action plan Vietnam ICM 2000,(1) and a central Vietnam coast at Hue is considered for its ICM potentials. GIS-aided techniques are employed in both countries to solve vulnerability problems and prepare for ICM. Sea-level rise scenarios, 10 cm (SLR1) and 30 cm (SLR2) by the year 2030, and 30 cm (ASLR1) and 100 cm (ASLR2) by the year 2100, are assumed as boundary conditions (along with some wind climate changes) for the entire Polish coast. Over 2200 km(2) and 230000 people are found vulnerable in Poland, and the total cost of land at loss due to ASLR2 is presently re-assessed at nearly US$30 billion (plus some US$18 billion at risk of flooding), while the cost of full protection reaches US$6 billion. Growing prices urge for prompt protection actions. Physical and socioeconomic development scenarios are examined and the coastal data input is provided for other Polish climate-change studies that are under way, thus adding to the cross-sectoral dimension. With 1-m sea-level rise in Vietnam, 17 million people will be subject to annual flooding, of which over 14 million are in the Mekong Delta provinces. About US$17 billion of capital value will be lost by annual flooding, which is about 80% of the yearly GDP. In the 30-year development scenario, the capital value lost will be close to US$270 billion, which would be even higher than the projected GDP at that time; the damage increases faster than the GDP. Major low-lying areas will be subject to increase in flooding: and if no additional protection measures are taken, about 40000 km(2) will be flooded annually. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *MIN TRANSP PUBL W, 1996, 7 RIKZ MIN TRANSP PU *MIN TRANSP PUBL W, 1997, 2000 ICZM ZEIDLER RB, 1992, ASSESSMENT VULNERABI ZEIDLER RB, 1995, J COASTAL RES, V22, P33 ZEIDLER RB, 1995, P 24 INT C COAST ENG, P3462 ZEIDLER RB, 1996, VULNERABILITY ADAPTA, P277 NR 6 TC 0 J9 OCEAN COAST MANAGE BP 41 EP 62 PY 1997 VL 37 IS 1 GA ZM705 UT ISI:000073567600005 ER PT J AU Sheppard, SRJ TI Landscape visualisation and climate change: the potential for influencing perceptions and behaviour SO ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE & POLICY LA English DT Article C1 Univ British Columbia, Collaborat Adv Landscape Planning, Dept Forest Resources & Landscape Architecture, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z4, Canada. RP Sheppard, SRJ, Univ British Columbia, Collaborat Adv Landscape Planning, Dept Forest Resources & Landscape Architecture, 2045-2424 Main Mall, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z4, Canada. AB The urgent need to mitigate and adapt to climate change is becoming more widely understood in scientific and policy circles, but public awareness lags behind. The potential of visual communication to accelerate social learning and motivate implementation of the substantial policy, technological, and life-style changes needed, has begun to be recognised. In particular, realistic landscape visualisations may offer special advantages in rapidly advancing peoples' awareness of climate change and possibly affecting behaviour and policy, by bringing certain possible consequences of climate change home to people in a compelling manner. However, few such applications are yet in use, the theoretical basis for the effectiveness of visualisations in this role has not been clearly established, and there are ethical concerns elicited by adopting a persuasive approach which deliberately engages the emotions with visual imagery. These questions and policy implications are discussed in the context of a theoretical framework on the effects of landscape visualisation on a spectrum of responses to climate change information, drawing in part on evidence from other applications of landscape visualisation. The author concludes that the persuasive use of visualisations, together with other approaches, may be effective, is justified, and could be vital in helping communicate climate change effectively, given ethical standards based on disclosure, drama, and defensibility. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 *UKCIP, 2002, CLIM CHANG SCEN UK *UKCIP, 2005, SOC SCEN CLIM CHANG ADGER WN, 2003, ECON GEOGR, V79, P387 ALKODMANY K, 2000, LANDSC RES, V25, P5 APPLETON K, 2002, COMPUT ENV URBAN SYS, V26, P201 APPLETON K, 2003, LANDSCAPE URBAN PLAN, V65, P117 APPLEYARD D, 1977, HUMAN BEHAV ENV, V1, P43 BENGTSSON P, 1997, ERGONOMICS, V40, P334 BERRY PM, 2002, GLOBAL ECOL BIOGEOGR, V11, P453 BERRY PM, 2005, COMMUNICATION BISHOP ID, 2001, LANDSCAPE URBAN PLAN, V54, P115 BISHOP ID, 2003, LANDSCAPE URBAN PLAN, V65, P261 BOARDMAN B, 2003, 4CE ENV CHANG I BOSSELMANN P, 1987, METHODS ENV BEHAV RE, CH5 BOSSELMANN P, 1998, REPRESENTATION PLACE CAMPBELL DC, 2004, UNPUB DIG WORKSH EXP COHEN SJ, 1997, ENVIRON MODEL ASSESS, V2, P281 COHEN SJ, 2004, EXPANDING DIALOGUE C COX DJ, 1990, ACAD COMPUT, V46, P20 DANAHY JW, 2001, LANDSCAPE URBAN PLAN, V54, P125 DANIEL TC, 2001, J ENVIRON PSYCHOL, V21, P61 DOCKERTY T, 2005, COMPUT ENV URBAN SYS, V29, P297 DYKES JA, 2000, COMPUTERS ENV URBAN, V24, P127 ERVIN SM, 2001, LANDSCAPE MODELING D FAWCETT T, 2002, CARBON UK IND SUSTAI FURNESS TA, 1998, P WORKSH SEATTL WASH HEDGER MM, 2003, CLIMATE CHANGE ASSES KAPLAN R, 1988, ENV AESTHETICS THEOR, P379 KEENEY RL, 2001, RISK ANAL, V21, P989 KOLLMUSS A, 2002, ENV ED RES, V8, P239 LANGE E, 2001, LANDSCAPE URBAN PLAN, V54, P163 LEWIS JL, IN PRESS LANDSC URBA LEWIS JL, 2000, THESIS UBC LORENZONI I, 2001, 0105 CSERGE ECM LOWE T, 2005, 72 U E ANGL LUYMES D, 2001, IUFRO RES SERIES, P191 LYNAS M, 2004, HIGH TIDE NEWS WARMI MACEACHREN AM, 1990, CARTOGRAPHICA, V27, P64 MACHEACHREN AM, 2001, PROG HUM GEOGR, V25, P431 MAITENY P, 2002, ENV ED RES, V8, P299 MCKENZIEMOHR D, 1999, FOSTERING SUSTAINABL MCQUILLAN AG, 1998, J FOREST, V96, P15 MEITNER M, 1997, P DAT VIS 97 ST LOUI MICHAELIS L, 2003, CLIM POLICY, S135 MONBIOT G, 2004, GUARDIAN 0427 NAKICENOVIC N, 2000, EMISSIONS SCENARIOS NICHOLSONCOLE SA, 2005, COMPUT ENV URBAN SYS, V29, P255 ORFORD S, 1999, SOC SCI COMPUT REV, V17, P289 ORLAND B, 1992, LANDSCAPE URBAN PLAN, V21, P257 ORLAND B, 2001, FORESTS LANDSCAPES L, P205 ORLAND B, 2001, LANDSCAPE URBAN PLAN, V54, P139 PEARCE DW, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995 PORTER T, 1979, ARCHITECTS VISUALIZE RIBE RG, 2005, LANDSCAPE URBAN PLAN, V73, P277 SALTER JD, 2005, THESIS U BRIT COLUMB SCHROTH O, 2005, OUR SHAR LANDSC C AS SHEPPARD SRJ, 1989, VISUAL SIMULATION US SHEPPARD SRJ, 2001, LANDSCAPE URBAN PLAN, V54, P183 SHEPPARD SRJ, 2001, P LANDTECH ASLA CSLA SHEPPARD SRJ, 2004, ENCY FOREST SCI, P486 SHEPPARD SRJ, 2004, MAKING UNSUSTAINABIL SHEPPARD SRJ, 2005, FOREST ECOL MANAG, V207, P171 SHEPPARD SRJ, 2005, VISUALIZATION LANDSC, P79 SLOVIC P, 2002, HEURISTICS BIASES PS, P397 STEINITZ C, 2003, ALTERNATIVES FUTURES STERN PC, 2000, J SOC ISSUES, V56, P407 TICKELL C, 2002, SCIENCE, V297, P737 TRESS B, 2002, URBAN PLAN, V982, P1 TUFTE ER, 1990, ENVISIONING INFORM WEBSTER M, 2003, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V61, P1 WINN W, 1997, R9715 HITL U WASH ZAJONC RB, 1984, AM PSYCHOL, V39, P117 ZUBE EH, 1982, LANDSCAPE PLANN, V9, P1 NR 74 TC 0 J9 ENVIRON SCI POLICY BP 637 EP 654 PY 2005 VL 8 IS 6 GA 991MD UT ISI:000233817200010 ER PT J AU Gowdy, JM TI Trade and environmental sustainability: An evolutionary perspective SO REVIEW OF SOCIAL ECONOMY LA English DT Article RP Gowdy, JM, RENSSELAER POLYTECH INST,TROY,NY 12181. AB Economies entirely dependent upon local environmental resources should have a greater incentive to preserve those resources than economies based on specialization and trade. Evidence from history and prehistory, however, shows that many regionally based economies have collapsed because of environmental overexploitation. Evidence from the past shows that there is a strong connection between environmental degradation, power, and social instability. There seems to be a complex and recurring pattern in early civilizations of expansion, a flourishing of culture and art, and then social disintegration and collapse as ruling elites pushed the expansion of material culture beyond the limits of the environment to support it. Recognizing the importance of the relationship between power, environmental sustainability, and social vulnerability is essential in formulating ecologically sustainable trade policies. CR ADAMS RM, 1992, CURR ANTHROPOL, V33, P141 BAHN P, 1992, EASTER ISLAND EARTH BHAGWATI J, 1993, SCI AM, V269, P42 BOYCE JK, 1994, ECOL ECON, V11, P169 BRUNTON R, 1975, MAN, V10, P544 BRUSH SB, 1986, J ETHNOBIOL, V6, P151 CORRY S, 1993, ECOLOGIST, V23, P148 DALY H, 1977, STEADY STATE EC DALY H, 1989, COMMON GOOD DALY H, 1994, ECOL ECON, V9, P73 DALY HE, 1993, SCI AM, V269, P50 DAVENPORT D, 1995, IN PRESS ECOLOGICAL DAVIDSON I, 1993, PEOPLE STONE AGE ELKINS P, 1994, ECOLOGICAL EC, V9, P1 GADGIL M, 1993, AMBIO, V22, P151 GEORGESCUROEGEN N, 1988, INT ENCY SOCIAL SCI, V16 GOWDY J, 1993, ENTROPHY BIOECONOMIC GOWDY J, 1994, COEVOLUTIONARY EC EC GOWDY J, 1995, EC THEORY ENV HAGE P, 1991, EXCHANGE OCEANIA IRWIN GJ, 1983, KULA NEW PERSPECTIVE KAPLAN RD, 1994, ATLANTIC MONTHLY FEB, P44 KOTTAK C, 1972, SOCIAL EXCHANGE INTE, V46, P107 KRUGMAN PR, 1987, J ECON PERSPECT, V1, P131 LOY T, 1993, 1ST HUMANS MALINOWSKI B, 1961, ARGONAUTS W PACIFIC MALONE C, 1993, SCI AM, V269, P110 MARTINEZALIER J, 1993, VALUATION WILD AGR B MARTINEZALIER J, 1994, ETHNOECOLOGICA, V2, P69 MARTINEZALIER J, 1995, ECOL ECON, V13, P1 MAYUMI K, 1993, DEC INT C TRAIN EXP MEILLASSOUX C, 1971, DEV INDIGENOUS TRADE MILICIC B, 1993, ETHNOLOGY, V32, P375 OHARA S, 1994, JUL INT SOC ASS C BI PEREGRINE P, 1991, AM ANTIQUITY, V56, P67 PERKINS P, 1994, MAY C WOM SUST DEV C PONTING C, 1991, GREEN HIST WORLD POSEY DA, 1985, AGROFOREST SYST, V3, P139 ROPKE I, 1994, ECOL ECON, V9, P13 SALLEH A, 1994, IS CAPITALISM SUSTAI SHIVA V, 1989, STAYING ALIVE STILES D, 1994, AMBIO, V23, P106 WEISKEL TC, 1989, ECOLOGIST, V19, P98 WEISS H, 1993, SCIENCE, V261, P995 WOODBURN J, 1982, MAN, V17, P431 NR 45 TC 1 J9 REV SOC ECON BP 493 EP 510 PY 1995 PD WIN VL 53 IS 4 GA TL493 UT ISI:A1995TL49300004 ER PT J AU Dokken, K TI Environment, security and regionalism in the Asia-Pacific: is environmental security a useful concept? SO PACIFIC REVIEW LA English DT Article C1 Univ Oslo, Dept Polit Sci, N-0317 Oslo, Norway. RP Dokken, K, Univ Oslo, Dept Polit Sci, POB 1097 Blindern, N-0317 Oslo, Norway. AB From the very beginning the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) has been occupied with the task of finding common solutions to common security problems. To a large degree, one may say that security questions have been a driving force for continued regional integration in Southeast Asia. In the future questions of environmental security may be playing the same role. The states around the South China Sea are to a large degree interdependent when it comes to questions of the human environment. They are interdependent to the degree that if they fail to find common solutions to environmental problems they may end up in violent conflict against each other. In general, environmental interdependence is both a source of conflict and a potential for international integration. The direction of the development, i.e. whether it leads to conflict or not, is to a large degree a question of how the decision-makers perceive the situation. This paper addresses the usefulness of the concept 'environmental security' in relation to political perception of environmental interdependence in Southeast Asia. If the political actors address serious environmental problems as security matters they are more likely to put them at the top of the agenda and deal with them in satisfactory manners, i.e. to cooperate and find solutions that are acceptable to all parties involved. CR ALVESTAD E, 1998, THESIS U OSLO AMER R, 1999, 3 WORLD Q, V20 BUZAN B, 1991, PEOPLE STATES FEAR A BUZAN B, 1998, SECURITY NEW FRAMEWO CHON LC, 1981, OPEN SELF RELIANT RE DECASTRO RC, 1998, ISSUES STUD, V34, P95 DOKKEN K, 1997, ENV SECURITY REGIONA DUPONT A, 1998, 319 AD ETZIONI A, 1965, POLITICAL UNIFICATIO GAO ZG, 1994, OCEAN DEV INT LAW, V25 HAAS EB, 1958, UNITING EUROPE HAAS EB, 1964, NATIONSTATE FUNCTION HAAS P, 1990, SAVING MEDITERRANEAN HAAS P, 1994, COMPLEX COOPERATION HAAS PM, 1992, INT ORGAN, V46, P1 HENDERSON J, 1999, 328 AD HJORTH R, 1994, COOPERATION CONFLICT, V29, P11 HOMERDIXON T, 1991, INT SECURITY, V16 HOMERDIXON T, 1998, ECOVIOLENCE LINKS EV JORGENSENDAHL A, 1982, REGIONAL ORG ORDER KERR P, 1994, PACIFIC REV, V7 LEE LT, 1995, PAC REV, V8, P531 LEIFER M, 1989, ASEAN SECURITY S E A LEIFER M, 1999, PACIFIC REV, V12 LIM R, 1998, CONT SE ASIA, V20 MAGNO F, 1997, ORBIS, V28 MATHEWS JT, 1989, FOREIGN AFFAIRS SPR MISCHE PM, 1989, ALTERNATIVES, V4 NAESS T, 1999, ENV SECURITY S CHINA ROWLANDS I, 1991, WASHINGTON Q WIN SIMON SW, 1998, 1998 M INT STUD ASS SOROOS MS, 1986, SOVEREIGNTY CHALLENG TILMAN R, 1984, ENEMY EXTERNAL THREA TOWNSENDGAULT I, 1999, PERSPECTIVES CONFLIC, P10 WALKER RBJ, 1990, ALTERNATIVES, V15 WESTING A, 1983, DEVELOPMENT, V11 WESTING A, 1986, GLOBAL RESOURCES INT WESTING A, 1990, ENV HAZARDS WAR RELE WESTING A, 1990, MAINTENANCE BIOSPHER NR 39 TC 0 J9 PAC REV BP 509 EP 530 PY 2001 VL 14 IS 4 GA 509FD UT ISI:000173134900002 ER PT J AU Minnegal, M Dwyer, PD TI Responses to a drought in the interior lowlands of Papua New Guinea: A comparison of Bedamuni and Kubo-Konai SO HUMAN ECOLOGY LA English DT Article C1 Univ Melbourne, Dept Geog & Environm Studies, Anthropol Program, Melbourne, Vic 3010, Australia. RP Minnegal, M, Univ Melbourne, Dept Geog & Environm Studies, Anthropol Program, Melbourne, Vic 3010, Australia. AB The ways that people experience, respond to and pattern recovery from major climatic aberrations must be understood within the context of existing socioeconomic arrangements and the ethos that informs these. This paper describes immediate and longer term impacts of a major drought on two populations-Bedamuni and Kubo-Konai-in the interior lowlands of Papua New Guinea. Though they occupy similar environments, are culturally related and reliant on similar technology and resources, these two populations differ in density, intensity of land use, and social complexity. The drought of 1997 affected one of the populations much more severely, than the other. A comparison of effects on subsistence regimes, mobility and social life in the two areas suggests that these were mediated by understandings people held of relationships with both the environment and other people. Bedamuni pattern their lives around an expectation of favorable returns on effort, emphasising security of tenure to protect those returns. Kubo-Konai, in contrast, pattern their lives around an expectation that availability of resources will be often in flux, and emphasise means of ensuring security of supply. These understandings are reflected, respectively, in risk-prone and risk-averse strategies of subsistence and sociality which directly influence vulnerability and responses to disruptive events. CR 1996, PORGERA JOINT VENTUR ALLEN BJ, 1993, W PROVINCE TEXT SUMM ALLEN BJ, 1997, PLEC NEWS VIEWS, V9, P21 ALLEN BJ, 1997, REPORT ASSESSMENT IM ALLEN BJ, 1998, ASIA PACIFIC MAGAZIN, V9, P39 ALLEN BJ, 1998, REPORT ASSESSMENT IM BELLAMY JA, 1986, NATURAL RESOURCES SE, V6 BICKFORD D, 1998, FROG POPULATIONS AFF BOURKE RM, 2000, EL NINO HIST CRISIS, P149 CORBETT J, 1988, WORLD DEV, V16, P1099 DWYER PD, IN PRESS J POLYNESIA DWYER PD, 1990, PIGS ATE GARDEN HUMA DWYER PD, 1991, HUM ECOL, V19, P187 DWYER PD, 1992, HUM ECOL, V20, P21 DWYER PD, 1993, CANBERRA ANTHR, V16, P1 DWYER PD, 1993, MEMOIRS QUEENSLAND M, V33, P123 DWYER PD, 1993, PAPUA NEW GUINEA J A, V36, P1 DWYER PD, 1994, MAN CULTURE OCEANIA, V10, P81 DWYER PD, 1998, J ROY ANTHROPOL INST, V4, P23 DWYER PD, 1999, J ANTHROPOL RES, V55, P361 ERNST TM, 1984, THESIS U MICHIGAN HEWITT K, 1983, INTERPRETATIONS CALA, P3 HEWITT K, 1997, REGIONS RISK GEOGRAP, V1, P1 HOLMES B, 1999, NEW SCI, V162, P32 HOROWITZ MM, 1990, AFRICAN FOOD SYSTEMS, P3 HUSSASHMORE R, 1990, AFRICAN FOOD SYSTE 2 JIPP PH, 1998, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V39, P395 KELLY RC, 1977, ETORO SOCIAL STRUCTU KELLY RC, 1993, CONSTRUCTING INEQUAL KNAUFT BM, 1985, AM ETHNOL, V12, P321 KNAUFT BM, 1985, GOOD CO VIOLENCE SOR MCALPINE JR, 1975, CSIRO DIVISION LAND, V37, P1 MINNEGAL M, IN PRESS PEOPLE CULT MINNEGAL M, 1994, THESIS U QUEENSLAND MINNEGAL M, 1995, SCI NEW GUINEA, V21, P27 MINNEGAL M, 1996, UNPUB CHANGES FISH F MINNEGAL M, 1997, CURR ANTHROPOL, V38, P25 MINNEGAL M, 1997, OCEANIA, V68, P47 MINNEGAL M, 1998, J ANTHROPOL ARCHAEOL, V17, P375 MINNEGAL M, 1999, ETHNOLOGY, V38, P59 MONSEF E, 1998, NUTR FOOD SECURITY A POUNDS JA, 1999, NATURE, V398, P611 SALAFSKY N, 1994, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V27, P373 SCHULTZ D, 1997, BULLETIN NOV, P32 SHAW RD, 1986, PACIFIC LINGUISTIC A, V70, P45 SHAW RD, 1990, KANDILA SAMO CEREMON SILLITOE P, 1999, OCEANIA, V69, P184 SORUM A, UNPUB FORKED BRANCH SORUM A, 1980, OCEANIA, V50, P273 SORUM A, 1982, SOCIAL ANAL, V10, P42 SORUM A, 1984, RITUALIZED HOMOSEXUA, P318 STEWART PJ, 1998, CTR PACIFIC STUDIES, V4, P1 STILL CJ, 1999, NATURE, V398, P608 VANBEEK AG, 1987, THESIS U LEIDEN WADDELL E, 1983, INTERPRETATIONS CALA, P33 WATTS MJ, 1983, INTERPRETATIONS CALA, P231 WATTS MJ, 1988, COPING UNCERTAINTY F, P260 WATTS MJ, 1993, PROG HUM GEOG, V17, P43 WINTERHALDER B, 1990, RISK UNCERTAINTY TRI, P67 WISSINK D, 1997, UNPUB SUMMARY REPORT NR 60 TC 0 J9 HUM ECOL BP 493 EP 526 PY 2000 PD DEC VL 28 IS 4 GA 385YL UT ISI:000166032700001 ER PT J AU OConnor, RE Yarnal, B Neff, R Bord, RJ Wiefek, N Reenock, C Shudak, R Jocoy, CL Pascale, P Knight, CG TI Weather and climate extremes, climate change, and planning - Views of community water system managers in Pennsylvania's Susquehanna River Basin SO JOURNAL OF THE AMERICAN WATER RESOURCES ASSOCIATION LA English DT Article C1 Penn State Univ, Dept Geog, University Pk, PA 16802 USA. Penn State Univ, Dept Polit Sci, University Pk, PA 16802 USA. Penn State Univ, Minnesota Dept Nat Resources, University Pk, PA 16802 USA. Penn State Univ, Ctr Integrated Reg Assessment, University Pk, PA 16802 USA. RP OConnor, RE, Penn State Univ, Dept Geog, 107 N Burrowes Bld, University Pk, PA 16802 USA. AB This research examines the sensitivity and vulnerability of community water systems (CWSs) to weather and climate in the Pennsylvania portion of the Susquehanna River Basin. Three key findings emerge from a survey of 506 CWS managers. First, CWSs are sensitive to extreme weather and climate, but that sensitivity is determined more by type of system than system size. CWSs that rely partly or wholly on surface water face more disruptions than do groundwater systems. Larger systems have more problems with flooding, and size is not a significant determinant of outages from storms or disruptions from droughts. Second, CWS managers are unsure about global warming. Few managers dismiss global warming; most think global warming could be a problem but are unwilling to consider it in their planning activities until greater scientific certainty exists. Third, the nature of the CWS, its sensitivity to weather and climate, and projected risks from weather and climate are insignificant determinants of how managers plan. Experienced, full-time managers are more likely to consider future weather and climate scenarios in their planning, while inexperienced and part-time managers are less likely to do so. Implications of these findings include support for efforts to move away from surface water, for clear communication of climate change information, and for the hiring and retention of full-time professional CWS managers. CR *PENNS DEP ENV RES, 1991, WAT SYST DROUGHT RES BORD RJ, 1999, SCI POLITY WATER PUB DILLMAN D, 1978, MAIL TELEPHONE SURVE FREDERICK KD, 1997, CLIMATE CHANGE WATER HOWE CW, 1993, WATER RESOUR RES, V29, P3363 JOCOY CL, 2000, UNPUB J AM WATER RES KARL TR, 1996, B AM METEOROL SOC, V77, P279 LINS HF, 1998, J AM WATER RESOUR AS, V34, P1255 PASCALE PH, 1997, THESIS PENNSYLVANIA PERROW C, 1984, NORMAL ACCIDENTS LIV STAKHIV EZ, 1996, ADAPTATION CLIMATE C WATSON RT, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, V1, P1 NR 12 TC 2 J9 J AM WATER RESOUR ASSOC BP 1411 EP 1419 PY 1999 PD DEC VL 35 IS 6 GA 271ZB UT ISI:000084624600011 ER PT J AU Najam, A Huq, S Sokona, Y TI Climate negotiations beyond Kyoto: developing countries concerns and interests SO CLIMATE POLICY LA English DT Article C1 Tufts Univ, Fletcher Sch Law & Diplomacy, Medford, MA 02155 USA. Sustainable Dev Policy Inst, Islamabad, Pakistan. Int Inst Environm & Dev, London, England. Bangladesh Ctr Adv Studies, Dhaka, Bangladesh. ENDA Environm & Dev Tiers Monde, Dhaka, Bangladesh. RP Najam, A, Tufts Univ, Fletcher Sch Law & Diplomacy, Medford, MA 02155 USA. AB Five years down the road from Kyoto, the Protocol that bears that city's name still awaits enough qualifying ratifications to come into force. While attention has been understandably focussed on the ratification process, it is time to begin thinking about the next steps for the global climate regime, particularly in terms of a deeper inclusion of developing countries' concerns and interests. This paper begins doing so from the perspective of the developing countries. The principal argument is that we need to return to the basic principles outlined in the Framework Convention on Climate Change in searching for a north-south bargain on climate change. Such a bargain may be achievable if we can realign the policy architecture of the climate regime to its original stated goals of sustainable development. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR 1997, P 105 C 1 SESS S RES *IPCC, 2001, P 3 ASS REP INT PAN AGARWAL A, 1991, GLOBAL WARMING UNEQU AGARWAL A, 1999, GREEN POLITICS GLOBA AGARWAL A, 2001, GREEN POLITICS GLOBA BAER P, 2000, SCIENCE, V289, P2287 BANURI T, 2000, CLEAN DEV MECH SUSTA BANURI T, 2001, P 3 ASS REP INT PAN, P73 BANURI T, 2002, CIVIC ENTREPRENEURSH, V1 BEG N, 2002, CLIM POLICY, V2, P129 BOHLE HG, 1994, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V4, P37 BURTON I, 1997, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V36, P185 CARRARO C, 2000, EFFICIENCY EQUITY CL COOPER RN, 1998, FOREIGN AFF, V77, P66 DASGUPTA C, 1994, NEGOTIATING CLIMATE, P129 DOWNING TE, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE WORLD DOWNING TE, 1999, DROUGHT GADGIL M, 1995, ECOLOGY EQUITY USE A GRUBB MJ, 2002, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V54, P11 HUQ S, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE NEGOT HUQ S, 2002, CLIM POLICY, V2, P243 HYDER TO, 1994, NEGOTIATING CLIMATE, P201 JACOBY HD, 1998, FOREIGN AFF, V77, P54 JAMIESON D, 1992, SCI TECHNOL, V17, P139 MALAKOFF D, 1997, SCIENCE, V278, P2048 MEYER A, 1999, MAN MADE CLIMATE CHA MULLER B, 2002, CLIM POLICY, V2, P241 MULLER B, 2002, YB INT COOPERATION E MUNASINGHE M, 2000, P IPCC EXP M DEV EQ NAJAM A, 1995, INT ENVIRON AFFAIR, V7, P249 NAJAM A, 1998, CLIM CHANGE, V39 NAJAM A, 1998, ENVIRON CONSERV, V25, P187 NAJAM A, 2000, ATMOS ENVIRON, V34, P4047 NAJAM A, 2000, GLOBAL GOVERN, V9 NAJAM A, 2001, DOWN EARTH, V10, P50 NAJAM A, 2002, ENVIRONMENT, V44, P26 RAJAN MK, 1997, GLOBAL ENV POLITICS RAYNER S, 1998, HUMAN CHOICES CLIMAT REINER DM, 1997, 27 MIT RIBOT JC, 1996, CLIMATE VARIABILITY, V1, P1 SAGAR A, 1997, ECON POLIT WEEKLY, V32, P3139 SAGAR AD, 1999, ENERG POLICY, V27, P509 SHUE H, 1995, EQUITY SOCIAL CONSID SOKONA Y, 1998, WHAT PROSPECTS AFRIC SOKONA Y, 2001, CLIM POLICY, V1, P117 SOKONA Y, 2001, DOWN EARTH, V10, P53 WEISS EB, 1989, FAIRNESS FUTURE GENE NR 47 TC 1 J9 CLIM POLICY BP 221 EP 231 PY 2003 PD SEP VL 3 IS 3 GA 734DG UT ISI:000186039500004 ER PT J AU Alexandrov, VA Eitzinger, J Cajic, V Oberforster, M TI Potential impact of climate change on selected agricultural crops in north-eastern Austria SO GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY LA English DT Article C1 Bulgarian Acad Sci, Natl Inst Meteorol & Hydrol, BG-1784 Sofia, Bulgaria. Fed Off & Res Ctr Agr, A-1226 Vienna, Austria. Unv Agr Sci BOKU, Inst Meteorol & Phys, A-1180 Vienna, Austria. RP Alexandrov, VA, Bulgarian Acad Sci, Natl Inst Meteorol & Hydrol, 66 Tzarigradsko Shose Blvd, BG-1784 Sofia, Bulgaria. AB \The vulnerability and adaptation of major agricultural crops to various soils in northeastern Austria under a changing climate were investigated. The CERES crop model for winter wheat and the CROPGRO model for soybean were validated for the agrometeorological conditions in the selected region. The simulated winter wheat and soybean yields in most cases agreed with the measured data. Several incremental and transient global circulation model (GCM) climate change scenarios were created and used in the study. In these scenarios, annual temperatures in the selected region are expected to rise between 0.9 and 4.8degreesC from the 2020s to the 2080s. The results show that warming will decrease the crop-growing duration of the selected crops. For winter wheat, a gradual increase in air temperature resulted in a yield decrease. Incremental warming, especially in combination with an increase in precipitation, leads to higher soybean yield. A drier climate will reduce soybean yield, especially on soils with low water storage capacity. All transient GCM climate change scenarios for the 21st century, including the adjustment for only air temperature, precipitation and solar radiation, projected reductions of winter wheat yield. However, when the direct effect of increased levels Of CO2 concentration was assumed, all GCM climate change scenarios projected an increase in winter wheat yield in the region. The increase in simulated soybean yield for the 21st century was primarily because of the positive impact of warming and especially of the beneficial influence of the direct CO2 effect. Changes in climate variability were found to affect winter wheat and soybean yield in various ways. Results from the adaptation assessments suggest that changes in sowing date, winter wheat and soybean cultivar selection could significantly affect crop production in the 21st century. 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CR BECKER B, 1986, J ARID ENVIRON, V11, P61 BURTON I, 1978, ENV HAZARD, V1, P1 CAMPBELL A, 1986, J ARID ENVIRON, V11, P81 CAMPBELL BM, 1986, FOOD NUTR, V12, P38 CAMPBELL BM, 1987, ECON BOT, V41, P375 CAMPBELL DJ, 1982, SOC SCI MED, V16, P2117 CAMPBELL DJ, 1984, HUM ECOL, V12, P35 CAMPBELL DJ, 1989, GEOGRAPHICAL J ZIMBA, V20, P15 COLSON E, 1979, J ANTHROPOL RES, V35, P18 DRUMMOND RB, 1987, COMMON TREES HIGHVEL FLEURET A, 1979, ECOL FOOD NUTR, V8, P87 FLEURET A, 1979, MED ANTHR, V3, P249 FLEURET A, 1986, DISASTERS, V10, P224 GOMEZ MI, 1988, ZAMBEZIA, V15, P53 MADIMU G, 1988, SO AFRICA FOOD SECUR MALAISSE F, 1985, ECOL FOOD NUTR, V18, P43 OGLE BM, 1985, ECOL FOOD NUTR, V16, P193 OGLE BM, 1985, ECOL FOOD NUTR, V17, P41 PULLAN RA, 1981, SINGAPORE J TROPICAL, V2, P101 RAHMATO D, 1988, DISASTERS, V12, P326 ROHRBACH DD, 1987, FOOD SECURITY SO AFR SANDERS D, 1988, SOC SCI MED, V27, P723 SCUDDER T, 1971, 5 ZAMB PAP SWINTON SM, 1988, HUM ECOL, V16, P123 TREDGOLD MH, 1986, FOOD PLANTS ZIMBABWE WATTS MJ, 1983, INTERPRETATIONS CALA WILD H, 1972, RHODESIAN BOTANICAL ZINYAMA L, 1986, GEOJOURNAL, V13, P365 ZINYAMA LM, 1986, GEOGRAPHY, V71, P105 ZINYAMA LM, 1988, SINGAPORE J TROP GEO, V9, P151 ZINYAMA LM, 1988, SO AFRICA FOOD SECUR ZINYAMA LM, 1990, IN PRESS GEOFORUM, V21 NR 32 TC 11 J9 ECOL FOOD NUTR BP 251 EP 265 PY 1990 VL 24 IS 4 GA EM950 UT ISI:A1990EM95000002 ER PT J AU Braga, ALF Zanobetti, A Schwartz, J TI The effect of weather on respiratory and cardiovascular deaths in 12 US cities SO ENVIRONMENTAL HEALTH PERSPECTIVES LA English DT Article C1 Harvard Univ, Sch Publ Hlth, Dept Environm Hlth, Environm Epidemiol Program, Boston, MA 02115 USA. Univ Sao Paulo, Sch Med, Dept Pathol, Lab Expt Air Pollut, Sao Paulo, Brazil. Univ Santo Amaro, Sch Med, Environm Pediat Program, Sao Paulo, Brazil. RP Schwartz, J, Harvard Univ, Sch Publ Hlth, Dept Environm Hlth, Environm Epidemiol Program, 665 Huntington Ave,Bldg 1,Room 1414, Boston, MA 02115 USA. AB We carried out time-series analyses in 12 U.S. cities to estimate both the acute effects and the tagged influence of weather on respiratory and cardiovascular disease (CVD) deaths. We fit generalized additive Poisson regressions for each city using nonparametric smooth functions to control for long time trend, season, and barometric pressure. We also controlled for day of the week. We estimated the effect and the lag structure of both temperature and humidity based on a distributed lag model. In cold cities, both high and low temperatures were associated with increased CVD deaths. In general, the effect of cold temperatures persisted for days, whereas the effect of high temperatures was restricted to the day of the death or the day before. For myocardial infarctions (MI), the effect of hot days was twice as large as the cold-day effect, whereas for all CVD deaths the hot-day effect was five times smaller than the cold-day effect. The effect of hot days included some harvesting, because we observed a deficit of deaths a few days later, which we did not observe for the cold-day effect. In hot cities, neither hot nor cold temperatures had much effect on CVD or pneumonia deaths. However, for MI and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease deaths, we observed lagged effects of hot temperatures (lags 4-6 and lags 3 and 4, respectively). We saw no clear pattern for the effect of humidity. In hierarchical models, greater variance of summer and winter temperature was associated with larger effects for hot and cold days, respectively, on respiratory deaths. CR *CDCP, 2001, HEAT REL DEATHS PHIL *COMM PROF HOSP AC, 1979, INT CLASS DIS, V1 *EARTH INC, 2000, NCDC SURF AIRW *US DEP HHS, 1993, PUBL US DAT TAP DOC AKAIKE H, 1973, 2 INT S INF THEOR, P267 ALMON S, 1965, ECONOMETRICA, V33, P178 BERKEY CS, 1995, STAT MED, V14, P395 BRAGA ALF, 2001, EPIDEMIOLOGY, V12, P662 BRAGA ALF, 2001, PEDIAT PULMONOL, V1, P106 BRUMBACK BA, 2000, J AM STAT ASSOC, V95, P16 CLEVELAND WS, 1979, J AM STAT ASSOC, V74, P829 CONCEICAO GMS, 2001, ENVIRON HEALTH PE S3, V109, P347 HASTIE T, 1990, GEN ADDITIVE MODELS HOUGHTON JT, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 JUDGE GG, 1980, THEORY PRACTICE ECON KALKSTEIN LS, 1997, ENVIRON HEALTH PERSP, V105, P84 KEATINGE WR, 1997, LANCET, V349, P1341 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 MCGEEHIN MA, 2001, ENVIRON HEALTH PE S2, V109, P185 POPE CA, 1996, AM J RESP CRIT CAR S, V154, S229 SAMET JM, 1997, 129 HLTH EFF I SAMET JM, 2000, NEW ENGL J MED, V343, P1742 SCHWARTZ J, 1994, INT BIOM SOC 17 INT, P55 SCHWARTZ J, 1999, EPIDEMIOLOGY, V10, P17 SCHWARTZ J, 2000, ENVIRON HEALTH PERSP, V108, P563 SCHWARTZ J, 2000, EPIDEMIOLOGY, V11, P320 SEMENZA JC, 1999, AM J PREV MED, V16, P269 ZANOBETTI A, 2000, ENVIRON HEALTH PERSP, V108, P1071 NR 28 TC 10 J9 ENVIRON HEALTH PERSPECT BP 859 EP 863 PY 2002 PD SEP VL 110 IS 9 GA 591RJ UT ISI:000177893800025 ER PT J AU Goldemberg, J Johansson, TB Reddy, AKN Williams, RH TI Energy for the new millennium SO AMBIO LA English DT Article C1 Univ Sao Paulo, Inst Eletrotech & Energia, BR-05508900 Sao Paulo, SP, Brazil. UN, Dev Programme, Bur Dev Policy, New York, NY 10017 USA. IEI, Bangalore 560046, Karnataka, India. Princeton Univ, Ctr Energy & Environm Studies, Princeton, NJ 08544 USA. RP Goldemberg, J, Univ Sao Paulo, Inst Eletrotech & Energia, Av Prof Almeida Prado,925,Cidade Univ, BR-05508900 Sao Paulo, SP, Brazil. AB The evolution of thinking about energy is discussed. When the authors began collaborating 20 years ago, energy was typically considered from a growth-oriented, supply-side perspective, with a focus on consumption trends and how to expand supplies to meet rising demand. They were deeply troubled by the environmental, security and equity implications of that approach. For instance, about two billion people lack access to affordable modern energy seriously limiting their opportunities for a better life. And energy is a significant contributor to environmental problems, including indoor air pollution, urban air pollution, acidification, and global warming. The authors saw the need to evolve a different perspective in which energy is provided in ways that help solve such serious problems. They argued that energy must become an instrument for advancing sustainable development-economically viable, need-oriented, self-reliant and environmentally sound development-and that the focus should be on the end uses of energy and the services that energy provides. Energy technological options that can help meet sustainable development goals are discussed. The necessity of developing and employing innovative technological solutions is stressed. The possibilities of technological leapfrogging that could enable developing countries to avoid repeating the mistakes of the industrialized countries is illustrated with a discussion of ethanol in Brazil. The role foreign direct investment might play in bringing advanced technologies to developing countries is highlighted. Near-and long-term strategies for rural energy are discussed. Finally, policy issues are considered for evolving the energy system so that it will be consistent with and supportive of sustainable development. CR 2001, DATAGRO LPG S AM DAT *LPG, 1991, 4 WORLD LPG C NOV 6 *OPEC, OPEC B *PCAST PAN INT COO, 1999, POW PARTN FED EN RES *UN DEV PROGR, 2000, WORLD EN ASS EN CHAL *UNDP, 2000, WORLD EN ASS, CH10 *WORLD BANK, 1999, WORLD DEV IND *WORLD EN COUNC, 2000, EN TOM WORLD ACT NOW *WORLD RES I, 1999, COMMUNICATION GOLDEMBERG J, 1987, ENERGY SUSTAINABLE W HAEFELE W, 1981, ENERGY FINITE WORLD JOHANSSON TB, 1989, ELECT EFFICIENT END JOHANSSON TB, 1993, RENEWABLE ENERGY SOU NAKICENOVIC N, 1998, GLOBAL ENERGY PERSPE REDDY AKN, 1997, ENERGY AFTER RIO PRO NR 15 TC 0 J9 AMBIO BP 330 EP 337 PY 2001 PD SEP VL 30 IS 6 GA 492NE UT ISI:000172173800001 ER PT J AU Barrios, S Bertinelli, L Strobl, E TI Climatic change and rural-urban migration: The case of sub-Saharan Africa SO JOURNAL OF URBAN ECONOMICS LA English DT Article C1 Univ Luxembourg, CREA, Luxembourg, Luxembourg. Ecole Polytech, F-75230 Paris, France. RP Bertinelli, L, Univ Luxembourg, CREA, Luxembourg, Luxembourg. AB We investigate the role that climatic change has played in the pattern of urbanization in sub-Saharan African countries compared to the rest of the developing world. To this end we assemble a cross-country panel data set that allows us to estimate the determinants of urbanization. The results of our econometric analysis suggest that climatic change, as proxied by rainfall, has acted to change urbanization in sub-Saharan Africa but not elsewhere in the developing world. Moreover, this link has become stronger since decolonization, which is likely due to the often simultaneous lifting of legislation prohibiting the free internal movement of native Africans. (c) 2006 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. 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SO JOURNAL OF APPLIED ECOLOGY LA English DT Editorial Material C1 NERC, Ctr Ecol & Hydrol, Banchory AB31 4BW, Kincardine, Scotland. RP Hulme, PE, NERC, Ctr Ecol & Hydrol, Banchory AB31 4BW, Kincardine, Scotland. AB 1. Climate change is recognized as a major threat to the survival of species and integrity of ecosystems world-wide. Although considerable research has focused on climate impacts, relatively little work to date has been conducted on the practical application of strategies for adapting to climate change. Adaptation strategies should aim to increase the flexibility in management of vulnerable ecosystems, enhance the inherent adaptability of species and ecosystem processes, and reduce trends in environmental and social pressures that increase vulnerability to climate variability. 2. Knowledge of the specific attributes of climate change likely to impact on species or habitats is central to any adaptive management strategy. Temperature is not the only climate variable likely to change as a result of anthropogenic increases in greenhouse gases. In some regions changes in precipitation, relative humidity, radiation, wind speed and/or potential evapotranspiration may be more marked than for temperature. 3. Uncertainty exists in the response of species and ecosystems to a given climate scenario. While climate will have a direct impact on the performance of many species, for others impacts will be indirect and result from changes in the spatiotemporal availability of natural resources. In addition, mutualistic and antagonistic interactions among species will mediate both the indirect and direct effects of climate change. 4. Approaches to predict species' responses to climate change have tended to address either changes in abundance with time or in spatial distribution. While correlative models may provide a good indication of climate change impacts on abundance, greater understanding is generated by models incorporating aspects of life history, intra- and interspecific competition and predation. Models are especially sensitive to the uncertainty inherent in future climate predictions, the complexity of species' interactions and the difficulties in parameterizing dispersal functions. Model outputs that have not been appropriately validated with real data should be treated with caution. 5. Synthesis and applications. While climate impacts may be severe, they are often exacerbated by current management practices, such as the construction of sea defences, flood management and fire exclusion. In many cases adaptation approaches geared to safeguard economic interests run contrary to options for biodiversity conservation. Increased environmental variability implies lower sustainable harvest rates and increased risks of population collapse. Climate change may significantly reduce habitat suitability and may threaten species with limited dispersal ability. In these cases, well-planned species translocations may prove a better option than management attempts to increase landscape connectivity. Mathematical models, long-term population studies, natural experiments and the exploitation of natural environmental gradients provide a sound basis for further understanding the consequences of climate change. 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AB Ecosystem change has usefully been seen as controlled by two functions: exploitation, where rapid colonization of recently disturbed land is emphasized, and conservation where slow accumulation and storage of energy and material are emphasized. Analysis of a series of ecosystems-managed and unmanaged-indicates there are two additional functions. One is that of creative destruction where the tightly bound accumulation of biomass and nutrients is suddenly released by agents such as forest fires, insect pests, or intense grazing. The second function is one of renewal where released material is mobilized to become available for the next exploitive phase. That pattern is discontinuous and is dependent on the existence of multistable states. Resilience and recovery are emphasized during the release and renewal sequence, and stability and productivity during the exploitation and conservation sequence. Such studies of resilience are beginning to combine with hierarchy theory and with the theory of dissipative structures to deepen our understanding of change and how to manage change. CR ALLEN PM, 1983, BIOSYSTEMS, V16, P113 ALLEN TFH, 1982, HIERARCHY PERSPECTIV BURTON I, 1978, ENV HAZARD, V1, P1 CLARK WC, 1979, ECOL MODEL, V7, P1 FIERING MB, 1974, AGROECOSYSTEMS, V1, P301 FIERING MB, 1982, WATER RESOUR RES, V18, P27 FIERING MB, 1982, WATER RESOUR RES, V18, P33 HOLLING CS, 1973, ANNUAL REV ECOLOGY S, V4, P1 HOLLING CS, 1976, BEHAV SCI, V3, P183 HOLLING CS, 1976, OCT P S FUT STRAT EN, P36 HOLLING CS, 1986, SUSTAINABLE DEV BIOS, V1, P1 LEVINS R, 1968, EVOLUTION CHANGING E LORENZ EN, 1964, TELLUS, V16, P1 NICOLIS G, 1977, SELF ORG NONEQUILIBR PETERMAN RM, 1979, POPULATION DYNAMICS, P321 SCHUMPETER JA, 1950, CAPITALISM SOCIALISM STEELE JH, 1974, NATURE, P248 NR 17 TC 2 J9 FUTURES BP 598 EP 609 PY 1994 PD JUL-AUG VL 26 IS 6 GA PC861 UT ISI:A1994PC86100004 ER PT J AU Boesch, DF TI Scientific requirements for ecosystem-based management in the restoration of Chesapeake Bay and Coastal Louisiana SO ECOLOGICAL ENGINEERING LA English DT Article C1 Univ Maryland, Ctr Environm Sci, Cambridge, MD 21613 USA. RP Boesch, DF, Univ Maryland, Ctr Environm Sci, Cambridge, MD 21613 USA. AB Ecosystem-based management requires integration of multiple system components and uses, identifying and striving for sustainable outcomes, precaution in avoiding deleterious actions, and adaptation based on experience to achieve effective solutions. Efforts underway or in planning to restore and manage two major coastal ecosystems, the Chesapeake Bay (Chesapeake Bay Program) and coastal Louisiana (Louisiana Coastal Area Plan and Gulf Hypoxia Action Plan), are examined with respect to these four principles. These multifaceted restoration programs represent among the foremost challenges for science and coastal management in the United States and, thereby, have important implications for addressing the coastal environmental crises being experienced throughout the world. Although frameworks exist for integration of management objectives in both regions, the technical ability for the quantitatively integrated assessment of multiple stressors and strategies is still in an early stage of development. Science is also being challenged to identify sustainable futures, but emerging concepts of ecosystem resilience offer some promising approaches. Precautionary management is best conceived with regard to fisheries, but should become a more explicit consideration for managing risks and avoiding unanticipated consequences of restoration activities. Adaptive management is embraced as a central process in coastal Louisiana ecosystem restoration, but has not formally been implemented in the more mature Chesapeake Bay restoration. Based on these experiences, ecosystem-based management could be advanced by: (1) orienting more scientific activity to providing the solutions needed for ecosystem restoration; (2) building bridges crossing scientific and management barriers to more effectively integrate science and management; (3) directing more attention to understanding and predicting achievable restoration outcomes that consider possible state changes and ecosystem resilience; (4) improving the capacity of science to characterize and effectively communicate uncertainty; and (5) fully integrating modeling, observations, and research to facilitate more adaptive management. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 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RP Schrad, ML, Univ Wisconsin, Dept Polit Sci, 110 North Hall,1050 Bascom Mall, Madison, WI 53706 USA. AB Following the collapse of the Soviet Union, the predicted scenarios of Central Asian water wars and catastrophic nuclear accidents have failed to materialize. However, the Aral Sea continues to shrink apace, and dangerous Soviet-built nuclear reactors have since proliferated in the former eastern bloc. These seemingly paradoxical outcomes can in part be attributed to the framing of these environmental issues as security matters by leading international regulatory, aid and lending institutions. Integrating these environmental concerns with the realist worldview of security studies systematically emphasized security dimensions at the expense of ecological concerns even amongst organizations distant from traditional defense affairs. This article proposes that international security strategy in this period is one of environmental appeasement defined as the systematic granting of ecologically unfriendly concessions in order to reduce short-term security risks. The article presents evidence that this appeasement strategy generated seemingly impressive results in terms of ameliorating short-term security risks, while actually exacerbating the underlying ecological situation. The article argues that while the foundational environmental risks remain unaddressed, the associated security threats have likewise not been ultimately resolved. (C) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 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YOUNG O, 1982, RESOURCE REGIMES NAT YOUNG O, 1989, INT COOPERATION BUIL YOUNG O, 1993, POLAR POLITICS CREAT YOUNG O, 1994, INT GOVERNANCE PROTE YOUNG O, 1998, CREATING REGIMES ARC ZIEGLER C, 1987, ENV POLICY USSR NR 216 TC 0 J9 GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANGE BP 400 EP 422 PY 2006 PD OCT VL 16 IS 4 GA 105MG UT ISI:000242033600009 ER PT J AU Hertin, J Berkhout, F Gann, DM Barlow, J TI Climate change and the UK house building sector: perceptions, impacts and adaptive capacity SO BUILDING RESEARCH AND INFORMATION LA English DT Article C1 Univ Sussex, Sci Policy Res Unit, Brighton BN1 9RF, E Sussex, England. Univ London Imperial Coll Sci Technol & Med, Innovat Studies Ctr, Business Sch & Civil & Environm Engn, London SW7 2PG, England. RP Hertin, J, Univ Sussex, Sci Policy Res Unit, Mantell Bldg, Brighton BN1 9RF, E Sussex, England. AB This paper explores how climate change could affect the UK house-building sector, focusing on the question of how companies can adapt to changing climatic conditions. It presents the results of in-depth interviews in five house-budding companies in the UK. We start from the assumption that climate change is only one driver among many, including technological innovation, shifting consumer expectations and changing regulation, that the industry faces. This approach draws on insights that are well established in the management and innovation literatures, but have often been neglected in studies of climate change. We report research about the perceptions of house builders about future impacts of climate change, potential adaptation measures that may be open to them and their ability to carry out these measures. The paper draws conclusions about the challenges that climate change presents to the UK house building industry. CR *HOUS FOR, 2002, DEM PROJ REP *HOUS FOR, 2002, HOM EXC COMM US OFFS *IPCC, 2001, 3 INT PAN CLIM CHANG *UKCIP, 2001, SOC SCEN CLIM CHANG *UKCIP, 2002, UKCIP02 TYND CTR CLI ADAMS RM, 1995, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V30, P147 ARNELL NW, 1998, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V39, P83 BARLOW J, 2002, IN PRESS BUILDING RE BRUCE JP, 1996, 2 INT PAN CLIM CHANG COURTNEY R, 2002, 0114 UMIST CRISP COM DODGSON M, 1993, ORGAN STUD, V14, P375 GANN DM, 1998, BUILD RES INF, V26, P280 GARVIN DA, 1993, HARVARD BUS REV, V71, P78 GRAVES HM, 2000, 2 FDN BUILT ENV JONES PD, 1999, REV GEOPHYS, V37, P173 KANDLIKAR M, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P529 LEONARDBARTON D, 1995, WELLSPRINGS KNOWLEDG LEVINTHAL DA, 1993, STRATEGIC MANAGE J, V14, P95 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 MENDELSOHN R, 1994, AM ECON REV, V84, P753 MENDELSOHN R, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P583 PARRY ML, 2000, ASSESSMENT POTENTIAL PIELKE RA, 1998, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V8, P159 PITTOCK AB, 2000, ENVIRON MONIT ASSESS, V61, P9 SCHNEIDER SH, 1980, ANNU REV ENERG ENV, V5, P107 SCHNEIDER SH, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P203 SMIT B, 1996, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V33, P7 SMIT B, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P223 SORRELL S, 2000, BARRIERS ENERGY EFFI STAKHIV EZ, 1996, ADAPTING CLIMATE CHA, P243 TOL RSJ, 1998, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V8, P109 YOHE GW, 1996, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V32, P387 NR 32 TC 9 J9 BUILDING RES INFORM BP 278 EP 290 PY 2003 PD MAY-AUG VL 31 IS 3-4 GA 688EE UT ISI:000183419700008 ER PT J AU Dolce, M Kappos, A Masi, A Penelis, G Vona, M TI Vulnerability assessment and earthquake damage scenarios of the building stock of Potenza (Southern Italy) using Italian and Greek methodologies SO ENGINEERING STRUCTURES LA English DT Article C1 Aristotle Univ Thessaloniki, Dept Civil Engn, Thessaloniki 54124, Greece. Univ Basilicata, Dept Struct Geotech & Geol Appl Engn, I-85100 Potenza, Italy. RP Kappos, A, Aristotle Univ Thessaloniki, Dept Civil Engn, Thessaloniki 54124, Greece. AB The prevailing Italian and Greek methodologies for seismic risk assessment are used herein to construct loss scenarios for the building stock of a small city (Potenza. Southern Italy). The inventory of buildings of interest is obtained from a survey carried out after the 1990 earthquake that struck Potenza and its hinterland, subsequently updated in 1999. About 12,000 buildings were surveyed in Potenza, using, the Italian first level survey form for damage and vulnerability evaluation. In the Italian methodology, a hybrid technique is set up to evaluate vulnerability, combining an analysis of building typologies with expert judgement. The probabilistic distribution of damage is evaluated by assigning Damage Probability Matrices (DPMs) from the literature. Besides the vulnerability classes A, B and C of the MSK-scale, the class D of the anti-seismic buildings is considered and the relevant DPM is defined. Damage and economic loss scenarios relevant to dwelling buildings are constructed for three reference earthquakes. Next, the hybrid methodology for seismic vulnerability assessment of reinforced concrete (R/C) and masonry buildings developed at the University of Thessaloniki (Greece) is applied to the same building stock. The methodology combines available statistical data of damage collected after past earthquakes with a systematic nonlinear analysis of various "model buildings", representative of several vulnerability classes. Similarities, as well as discrepancies, between the two methods are discussed in the light of the obtained results, and possible sources for the discrepancies are suggested. (C) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *ATC, 1985, EARTHQ DAM EV DAT CA *ESC WORK GROUP MA, 1998, EUR MACR SCAL 1998 *FEMA NIBS, 1999, HAZUS99 TECHN MAN, V1 ALBARELLO D, 1998, NEW SEISMIC HAZARD M AZZARA R, 1993, ANN GEOFISICA ROME, V36 BARBAT AH, 1996, EARTHQ SPECTRA, V12, P371 BARD PY, P 3 INT C SEISM ZON, V3, P1749 BERNARDINI A, 1998, P INT WORKSH MEAS SE BRAGA F, 1982, 503 CNRPFG BRAGA F, 1985, 7 EUR C EARTHQ ENG CALVI GM, 1996, EARTHQ SPECTRA, V12, P145 DAYALA DF, 1996, 11 WORLD C EARTHQ EN DIPASQUALE G, 1998, P INT WORKSH MEAS SE DIPASQUALE G, 2001, P 10 IT NAT C EARTHQ DOLCE M, 1996, US IT WORKSH SEISM E DOLCE M, 2000, INT WORKSH SEISM RIS DOLCE M, 2002, P 12 ECEE DOLCE M, 2003, B EARTHQUAKE ENG, V1, P115 FACCIOLI E, 1999, J SEISMOL, V3, P327 GORETTI A, 2001, P 10 IT NAT C EARTHQ KAPPOS A, 1995, P 5 INT C SEISM ZON, V1, P406 KAPPOS A, 2002, 2 EUR C EARTHQ ENG KAPPOS AJ, 1998, NAT HAZARDS, V17, P177 KAPPOS AJ, 2001, P 10 IT NAT C EARTHQ KAPPOS AJ, 2002, J STRUCT ENG-ASCE, V128, P890 MARGOTTINI C, 1987, P WORKSH HIST SEISM MASI A, 2002, P DISGG MASI A, 2003, B EARTHQUAKE ENG, V1, P371 PENELIS GC, 2003, STREMAH 2003 8 INT C, P575 PENELIS GG, 2002, INT C EARTHQ LOSS ES NR 30 TC 0 J9 ENG STRUCT BP 357 EP 371 PY 2006 PD FEB VL 28 IS 3 GA 007FY UT ISI:000234955200004 ER PT J AU Erasmus, BFN VanJaarsveld, AS Chown, SL Kshatriya, M Wessels, KJ TI Vulnerability of South African animal taxa to climate change SO GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY LA English DT Article C1 Univ Pretoria, Ctr Environm Studies, ZA-0002 Pretoria, South Africa. Univ Pretoria, Dept Zool & Entomol, Conservat Planning Unit, ZA-0002 Pretoria, South Africa. Agr Res Council, Inst Soil Climate & Water, ZA-0001 Pretoria, South Africa. RP VanJaarsveld, AS, Univ Pretoria, Ctr Environm Studies, ZA-0002 Pretoria, South Africa. AB The responsiveness of South African fauna to climate change events is poorly documented and not routinely incorporated into regional conservation planning. We model the likely range alterations of a representative suite of 179 animal species to climate change brought about by the doubling of CO2 concentrations. This scenario is expected to cause a mean temperature increase of 2 degreesC. We applied a multivariate climate envelope approach and evaluated model performance using the most comprehensive bird data set. The results were encouraging, although model performance was inconsistent in the eastern coastal area of the country. The levels of climate change induced impacts on species ranges varied from little impact to local extinction. Some 17% of species expanded their ranges, 78% displayed range contraction (4-98%), 3% showed no response and 2% became locally extinct. The majority of range shifts (41%) were in an easterly direction, reflecting the east-west aridity gradient across the country. Species losses were highest in the west. Substantially smaller westward shifts were present in some eastern species. This may reflect a response to the strong altitudinal gradient in this region, or may be a model artifact. Species range change (composite measure reflecting range contraction and displacement) identified selected species that could act as climate change indicator taxa. Red-data and vulnerable species showed similar responses but were more likely to display range change (58% vs. 43% for all species). Predictions suggest that the flagship, Kruger National Park conservation area may loose up to 66% of the species included in this analysis. This highlights the extent of the predicted range shifts, and indicates why conflicts between conservation and other land uses are likely to escalate under conditions of climate change. 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Econ Res Serv, USDA, Washington, DC 20036 USA. RP Reilly, JM, MIT, Joint Program Sci & Policy Global Change, 77 Massachusetts Ave,Bldg E40-263, Cambridge, MA 02139 USA. AB Climate change assessments which have considered climate impacts of a 2xCO(2) climate, using models of the global agricultural system, have found small impacts on overall production, but larger regional changes. Production shifts among regions can be considered one mechanism for adaptation. Adaptation at the farm level, through changes in crops, cultivars, and production practices, is another adaptation mechanism. Existing studies differ in how important these mechanisms will be. Studies that have considered yield effects at specific sites have found very wide ranges of impacts. A useful way to evaluate the impacts of climate change, given the uncertainty about future impacts, is to consider vulnerability. Studies have defined vulnerability in terms of yield, farm profitability, regional economy, and hunger. 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P807 WINTERS P, IN PRESS GLOBAL ENV YATES DN, 1996, ENVIRON MODEL ASSESS, V1, P119 YOHE GW, 1999, GLOBAL ENV CHANGE AG, P193 YUDELMAN M, 1993, DEMAND SUPPLY FOODST NR 130 TC 8 J9 CLIMATIC CHANGE BP 745 EP 788 PY 1999 PD DEC VL 43 IS 4 GA 248KD UT ISI:000083272900006 ER PT J AU Zelek, CA Shively, GE TI Measuring the opportunity cost of carbon sequestration in tropical agriculture SO LAND ECONOMICS LA English DT Article C1 USDA, NRCS, Washington, DC 20250 USA. Purdue Univ, Dept Agr Econ, W Lafayette, IN 47907 USA. RP Zelek, CA, USDA, NRCS, Washington, DC 20250 USA. AB We present a method for measuring the opportunity cost of sequestering carbon on tropical farms. We derive the rates of carbon sequestration for timber and agroforestry systems and compute incentive compatible compensating payment schedules for farmers who sequester carbon. The method is applied to data for an agricultural watershed in the Philippines. Area- and land quality-adjusted total costs are estimated. The present value of the opportunity cost of carbon storage via land modification falls between $3.30 and $62.50 per ton. Carbon storage through agroforestry is found to be less costly than via a pure tree-based system. CR *ADB, 1991, APPR FOR PLANT SECT *FAO UN, 1998, 53 RWEDP UN *NAS, 1992, POL IMP GREENH WARM *US DOE, 2001, CARB SEQ *USOTA, 1991, CHANG DEGR STEPS RED *WRI, 1998, CLEAN DEV MECH ROL F *WRI, 2000, FOR LAND US CHANG CA ADAMS DM, 1999, LAND ECON, V75, P360 BIN L, 1994, THESIS ASIAN I TECHN BOSCO HL, 1997, BELL LABS TECH J, V2, P3 BROWN S, 1996, WORKING GROUP 2 2 AS BROWN S, 1997, 134 FAO UN BRUCE JP, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, P178 CHINGCHANG C, 1999, ENV EC POLICY STUDIE, V2, P199 COXHEAD I, 2002, ENVIRON DEV ECON 2, V7, P341 DUDENHAUSEN JW, 1990, PERINAT MED, V2, P1 ENQUIST BJ, 2002, SCIENCE, V295, P1517 HEATH LS, 1996, NATO ASI SER SER I, V40, P271 HOUGHTON JT, 1992, CLIMATE CHANGE 1992 HOUGHTON JT, 1996, CLAMTE CHANGE 1995 S MANNE AS, 1991, ENERGY J, V12, P87 MOULTON R, 1990, WO58 GTR USDA NISSEN TM, 1998, THESIS U GEORGIA NISSEN TM, 1999, AGROFOREST SYST, V46, P83 NISSEN TM, 2001, AGR SYST, V67, P49 PARKS PJ, 1995, LAND ECON, V71, P122 PFAFF ASP, 2000, ECOL ECON, V35, P203 PLANTINGA AJ, 1999, AM J AGR ECON, V81, P812 REDDING RE, 1999, JUVENILE FAM COURT J, V50, P1 SHIVELY GE, 2002, PHILIPPINE J DEV, V29, P101 SHIVELY GE, 2003, IN PRESS AGR ECOSYST SINGH VP, DEV SUSTAINABLE PROD STAVINS RN, 1999, AM ECON REV, V89, P994 TOTTEN M, 1999, GETTING RIGHT EMERGI TREXLER M, 1994, KEEPING IT GREEN TRO URIARTE T, 1996, J TROPICAL FOREST SC, V8, P289 WATSON RT, 1998, REGIONAL IMPACTS CLI, V1, P1 WEST LT, 1997, SOIL MICROMORPHOLOGY, P335 ZEULI K, 2000, J AGR APPL EC, V32, P235 NR 39 TC 2 J9 LAND ECON BP 342 EP 354 PY 2003 PD AUG VL 79 IS 3 GA 704FM UT ISI:000184328300003 ER PT J AU Mackil, E TI Wandering cities: Alternatives to catastrophe in the Greek polis SO AMERICAN JOURNAL OF ARCHAEOLOGY LA English DT Review C1 Wesleyan Univ, Dept Class Studies, Middletown, CT 06459 USA. RP Mackil, E, Wesleyan Univ, Dept Class Studies, Middletown, CT 06459 USA. AB This paper traces the phenomenon of polis desertion, exploring both its causes and its impact on the social and political landscape. It is argued that while the Greek poleis were highly vulnerable to ecologically and socially induced stress and catastrophe, they were at the same time remarkably resilient in a way that their individual inhabitants could not be. It is argued that this social resilience was a product of relations with other communities which served as a kind of buffer against risk; it is thus the communal response to stress and catastrophe that enables social resilience. A variety of relations between communities contributed to social resilience, including kinship, sympoliteia, and isopoliteia, but it is argued that the koinon was the most effective social structure in achieving this end, by institutionalizing economic and political relations between communities that allowed for diversification and redistribution of both populations and resources. In writing the history of abandonment in the Classical and Hellenistic poleis, evidence is drawn from literary and epigraphic sources as well as intensive and extensive survey, excavation and studies of landscape change in antiquity.*. 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1999, GEOARCHAEOLOGY, V14, P531 SOTER S, 2001, J COASTAL RES, V17, P95 SWOBODA H, 1924, 2 KAPITEL GRIECHISCH TORRENCE R, 2002, NATURAL DISASTERS CU, P1 WALBANK FW, 1967, HIST COMMENTARY POLY, V2 WALBANK FW, 1989, ZPE, V76, P184 WATTS MJ, 1993, PROG HUM GEOG, V17, P43 WEBER EF, 1906, SAMMLUNG EF WEBER, V1 WEHRLI F, 1953, SCHULE ARISTOTELES H WELLES CB, 1934, ROYAL CORRESPONDENCE WROTH W, 2002, NC, V2, P313 YOFFEE N, 1988, COLLAPSE ANCIENT STA, P1 NR 140 TC 0 J9 AMER J ARCHAEOL BP 493 EP 516 PY 2004 PD OCT VL 108 IS 4 GA 879GN UT ISI:000225704500001 ER PT J AU COLSON, E TI IN GOOD YEARS AND IN BAD - FOOD STRATEGIES OF SELF-RELIANT SOCIETIES SO JOURNAL OF ANTHROPOLOGICAL RESEARCH LA English DT Article RP COLSON, E, UNIV CALIF BERKELEY,DEPT ANTHROPOL,BERKELEY,CA 94720. CR *INT WORKSH CLIM I, 1978, 1978 REP, P24 *NAT RES COUNC, 1977, SUPP PAP WORLD FOOD *NAT RES COUNC, 1977, WORLD FOOD NUTR STUD *NAT RES COUNC, 1979, POST HARV FOOD LOSS *SCI COMM PROBL EN, 1978, WORKSH CLIM SOC INT AGINSKY BW, 1939, AM SOCIOL REV, V4, P209 ALLAN W, 1965, AFRICAN HUSBANDMAN APPLEBY AR, 1978, FAMINE TUDOR STUART BAIER S, 1977, SLAVERY AFRICA HIST, P391 BOSERUP E, 1965, CONDITIONS AGRICULTU BURTON I, 1978, ENV HAZARD, V1, P1 COHEN M, 1977, FOOD CRISIS PREHISTO COLSON E, 1958, MARRIAGE FAMILY PLAT COLSON E, 1960, SOCIAL ORG GWEMBE TO COLSON E, 1971, SOCIAL CONSEQUENCES CUNNISON I, 1960, SUDAN J VET SCI ANIM, V1, P1 DESHLER WW, 1965, MAN CULTURE ANIMALS, P153 DOWNS J, 1964, 1 U CAL ANTHR PUBL DYSONHUDSON R, 1969, SCI AM, V220, P76 FIRTH R, 1959, SOCIAL CHANGE TIKOPI KROEBER A, 1925, 78 BUR AM ETHN SMITH LEE RB, 1976, KALAHARI HUNTER GATH MARSHALL L, 1976, KUNG NYAE NYAE MAYHEW A, 1973, RURAL SETTLEMENT FAR MCNETTING R, 1968, HILL FARMERS NIGERIA MIRACLE MP, 1961, B I FRANC AFRIQUE B, V23, P273 MORRIS MD, 1974, ECON POLIT WEEKLY, V9, P1855 MORRIS MD, 1975, EC POLITICAL WEEKLY, V10, P283 NEWMAN JL, 1970, ECOLOGICAL BASIS SUB OGBU JU, 1973, AFRICA, V43, P317 PRINDLE PH, 1979, ETHNOLOGY, V18, P49 RAPPAPORT RA, 1967, PIGS ANCESTORS RITUA, V1, P1 RICHARDS A, 1939, LAND LABOUR DIET NO SAHLINS M, 1972, STONE AGE EC SCUDDER T, 1962, ECOLOGY GWEMBE TONGA SCUDDER T, 1971, GWEMBE TONGA SMITH E, 1977, THOSE WHO LIVE SEA S SPILLIUS J, 1957, HUM RELAT, V10, P113 TORRY W, IMPACT NATURAL DISAS TORRY W, 1979, DISASTERS SOC RISKS TUBIANA MJ, 1977, ZAGHAWA ECOLOGICAL P TUCHMAN B, 1978, DISTANT MIRROR CALAM NR 42 TC 54 J9 J ANTHROPOL RES BP 18 EP 29 PY 1979 VL 35 IS 1 GA JC577 UT ISI:A1979JC57700002 ER PT J AU RAMBO, AT TI HUMAN-ECOLOGY RESEARCH ON TROPICAL AGROECOSYSTEMS IN SOUTHEAST-ASIA SO SINGAPORE JOURNAL OF TROPICAL GEOGRAPHY LA English DT Article RP RAMBO, AT, EAST WEST ENVIRONM & POLICY INST,HONOLULU,HI. CR 1980, FAO PRODUCTION YB, V33 ADAMS RN, 1975, ENERGY STRUCTURE THE ADAMS RN, 1978, AM ANTHROPOL, V80, P297 BARLETT PF, 1980, AGR DECISION MAKING BERESFORD M, 1977, POLITICS, V12, P98 BURTON I, 1978, ENV HAZARD, V1, P1 CHANG JH, 1968, GEOGR REV, V58, P333 CHRISTANTY L, 1979, 5TH INT S TROP EC KU COLLIER WL, 1978, 1978 WEST EC ASS C H CONKLIN HC, 1955, THESIS NEW HAVEN CONKLIN HC, 1957, HANUNOO AGR CONWAY GR, 1973, ECOLOGY RESOURCE DEV CONWAY GR, 1979, SEMINAR INDIAN AGR R COTTRELL F, 1955, ENERGY SOC COWARD EW, 1980, IRRIGATION AGR DEV A DIENER P, 1978, DIALECT ANTHROPOL, V3, P221 DOBBY EHG, 1950, SE ASIA DUNCAN OD, 1964, HDB MODERN SOCIOLOGY, P36 DUNN FL, 1975, MONOGRAPHS MALAYSIAN, V5 GEERTZ C, 1963, AGR INVOLUTION PROCE GYPMANTASIRI P, 1980, INTERDISCIPLINARY PE HAMILTON L, 1981, WATERSHED LAND USE R HARDIN G, 1968, SCIENCE, V162, P1243 HARRIS M, 1966, CURR ANTHROPOL, V7, P51 HARRIS M, 1975, COWS PIGS WARS WITCH HECKMAN CW, 1979, MONOGRAPHIE BIOL, V34 HUFSCHMIDT M, 1981, EC APPROACHES NATURA JANZEN DH, 1973, SCIENCE, V183, P1212 KOH BH, 1977, FLOW ENERGY ORANG AS LAPPE FM, 1977, FOOD 1ST MYTH SCARCI LEVISSTRAUSS C, 1969, RAW COOKED LEWIS HT, 1971, ILOCANO RICE FARMERS LINDEMAN RL, 1942, ECOLOGY, V23, P399 LOVINS AB, 1977, SOFT ENERGY PATHS MARGALEF DR, 1958, GEN SYST, V3, P36 MCARTHUR M, 1974, OCEANIA, V45, P87 MCNEILL WH, 1979, PLAGUES PEOPLES MEADE MS, 1976, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V66, P428 MYERS N, 1979, SINKING ARK NEW LOOK MYERS N, 1980, CONVERSION TROPICAL NGUU NV, 1977, PHILIPPINES J BIOL, V6, P1 ODENDHAL S, 1972, HUM ECOL, V1, P3 ODUM HT, 1971, ENV POWER SOC ODUM HT, 1976, ENERGY BASIS MAN NAT OMENGAN E, 1981, 1981 IRRI SEM LOS BA PELZER KJ, 1948, PIONEER SETTLEMENT A POLUNIN I, 1953, MED J MALAYSIA, V8, P55 RAMBO AT, ASIAN PERSPECTIVES RAMBO AT, 1973, SO ILLINOIS U CTR VI, V3 RAMBO AT, 1979, 1979 FORD F AS PAC A RAMBO AT, 1979, 4 U MAL DEP ANTHR SO RAMBO AT, 1980, FEDERATION MUSEUMS J, V25, P77 RAMBO AT, 1980, PRIMITIVE POLLUTERS RAPPAPORT RA, 1967, PIGS ANCESTORS RITUA, V1, P1 RAPPAPORT RA, 1971, SCI AM, V225, P116 ROKIAH BT, 1978, 10TH INT C ANTHR ETH ROOT BD, 1976, PROFESSIONAL GEOGRAP, V28, P349 SANIANO BS, 1981, ETHNOECOLOGY PHILIPP SOEMARWOTO O, 1978, PRISMA, V8, P12 SOLHEIM WG, 1971, SCI AM, V226, P34 STEINHART JS, 1974, SCIENCE, V184, P307 TAN ESP, 1978, FOOD AGR MALAYSIA 20, P275 TUAN YF, 1968, CAN GEOGR, V12, P176 VERNADSKY WI, 1945, AM SCI, V33, P1 WHITE L, 1967, SCIENCE, V155, P1203 WHITE LA, 1943, AM ANTHROPOL, V45, P335 WHYTE RO, 1968, LAND LIVESTOCK HUMAN WITTFOGEL K, 1957, ORIENTAL DESPOTISM NR 68 TC 4 J9 SING J TROP GEOGR BP 86 EP 99 PY 1982 VL 3 IS 1 GA NS458 UT ISI:A1982NS45800007 ER PT J AU Liverman, DM Merideth, R TI Climate and society in the US Southwest: the context for a regional assessment SO CLIMATE RESEARCH LA English DT Article C1 Univ Arizona, Ctr Latin Amer Studies, Tucson, AZ 85719 USA. Univ Arizona, Dept Geog & Reg Dev, Tucson, AZ 85719 USA. Univ Arizona, Udall Ctr Studies Publ Policy, Tucson, AZ 85719 USA. RP Liverman, DM, Univ Arizona, Ctr Latin Amer Studies, 103 Douglass Bldg, Tucson, AZ 85719 USA. AB We examine the general relationships between climate and society in the US Southwest providing a context for the ongoing Climate Assessment for the Southwest (CLIMAS) Project, We review 5 key contextual elements of the region-its demography, economy, land, water, and institutions and values-and indicate how these conditions predispose certain social groups, economic sectors, or geographic areas to be more or less vulnerable, adaptable, or responsive to climate variability, climate information and climate change. Given the rapid influx of people into the region, the significant economic growth, and competing demands for water and other resources, especially in urban areas, vulnerability to climatic variations is already increasing in some areas of the Southwest, Differences in income, access to institutional resources, or employment options make some individuals or groups less able to cope with the adverse effects of climate changes or to use climate information to guide decisions. And the ability to respond to climatic variability and make the best use of climate information often is constrained both by institutional obligations and by the tense politics of some public land management in the region, Yet, improved climate information could assist decision-makers in dealing with these and other climate-related problems within the region, so long as institutional structures, public attitudes, and other internal and external conditions provide the flexibility to use the information in appropriate ways. 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RP Russell, S, Univ E Anglia, Sch Dev Studies, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. AB Understanding the economic burden of illness for households can inform pro-poor health and social protection policy, yet research is in its infancy and appropriate methods require further debate. Quantitative studies are powerful when applied to the right health policy questions, including the measurement of illness cost burden indicators. However, this paper argues that not all dimensions of economic burden can be measured easily, some dimensions relevant to policy, such as social actors' responses to illness and their strategies to cope with illness costs, cannot be reduced to quantitative indicators at all, and large-scale surveys may overlook context-specific processes operating at household level that influence people's paths in and out of poverty as a result of illness. This leaves scope for longitudinal case-study household research to enhance understanding of economic burden and provide additional policy insights on how to better protect households from cost burdens and improve resilience. Drawing on the experience of research in urban Sri Lanka, the paper sets out several comparative advantages of case study research in this area. First, it complemented household survey data by revealing the complex and dynamic nature of illness costs and how these cost patterns (for example, sudden cost peaks) influenced household ability to manage costs. Secondly, it improved understanding of vulnerability or resilience to illness costs by capturing the diverse resources, within and outside the household, used by people to cope with illness costs, and the social institutions and decision-making processes that influenced access to them. Thirdly, the cases enabled the research to develop a picture of the inter-connected factors mediating the impact of illness on livelihood outcomes. CR *WHO, 2000, WORLD HLTH REP 2000 *WORLD BANK, 1997, CONFR AIDS PUBL PRIO *WORLD BANK, 2000, WORLD DEV REP ATT PO BACHMANN MO, 2004, AIDS CARE, V16, P817 BAUM F, 1995, SOC SCI MED, V40, P459 BAYLIES C, 2002, DEV CHANGE, V33, P611 BOOYSEN FL, 2003, SOC SCI MED, V56, P2391 CHAMBERS R, 1995, ENVIRON URBAN, V7, P173 COAST J, 1999, HEALTH ECON, V8, P345 COAST J, 2004, J HLTH SERVICES RES, V9, P171 DREZE J, 1989, HUNGER PUBLIC ACTION GILSON L, 1998, EPC PUBLICATION, V15 GLUCKMAN M, 1961, SOCIOL REV, V9, P5 GUINNESS L, 2000, AFR DEV FOR ADD AB 3 HAINES A, 2000, BRIT MED J, V320, P1 INHORN MC, 1995, SOC SCI MED, V40, P285 KABIR A, 2000, J INT DEV, V12, P707 KONGSIN S, 2001, THAI J HLTH SCI, V10, P276 MCINTYRE D, 2003, REV STUDIES DEALING MENON R, 1998, CONFRONTING AIDS EVI MITCHELL JC, 1983, SOCIOL REV, V31, P187 MOSER CON, 1998, WORLD DEV, V26, P1 NGALULA J, 2002, TROP MED INT HEALTH, V7, P873 PITAYANON S, 1997, EC HIV AIDS CASE S S PRESCOTT N, 1999, COPING CATASTROPHIC PRYER J, 1989, IDS BULL-I DEV STUD, V20, P49 RANSON MK, 2002, B WORLD HEALTH ORGAN, V80, P613 RUSSELL S, IN PRESS SOCIAL SCI RUSSELL S, 1996, HEALTH POLICY PLANN, V11, P219 RUSSELL S, 2001, THESIS U LONDON LOND RUSSELL S, 2004, AM J TROP MED HYG, V7, P147 SAUERBORN R, 1996, SOC SCI MED, V43, P291 SCOONES L, 1998, 72 IDS SEELEY JA, 1995, HLTH POLICY PLANNING, V10, P79 SEN AK, 1981, POVERTY FAMINES ESSA, V1, P1 SWIFT J, 1989, IDS B, V20, P8 THOMAS A, 1998, FINDING OUT FAST INV TROSTLE JA, 1996, ANNU REV ANTHROPOL, V25, P253 VICTORA CG, 2004, AM J PUBLIC HEALTH, V94, P400 WAGSTAFF A, 2002, B WORLD HEALTH ORGAN, V80, P97 WAGSTAFF A, 2003, HEALTH ECON, V12, P921 WALLMAN S, 1984, 8 LONDON HOUSEHOLDS WHITE B, 1984, IDS B, V15, P18 XU K, 2003, LANCET, V362, P111 YIN RK, 1994, CASE STUDY RES DESIG NR 45 TC 0 J9 HEALTH POLICY PLANN BP 277 EP 289 PY 2005 PD SEP VL 20 IS 5 GA 958UG UT ISI:000231473100003 ER PT J AU Dorland, C Tol, RSJ Palutikof, JP TI Vulnerability of the Netherlands and Northwest Europe to storm damage under climate change - A model approach based on storm damage in the Netherlands SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 Vrije Univ Amsterdam, Inst Environm Studies, Amsterdam, Netherlands. Univ E Anglia, Climat Res Unit, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. RP Dorland, C, Vrije Univ Amsterdam, Inst Environm Studies, Amsterdam, Netherlands. AB Storms occasionally bring havoc to Northwest Europe. At present, a single storm may cause damage of up to 7 billion U.S.$, of which a substantial part is insured. One scenario of climate change indicates that storm intensity in Northwest Europe could increase by 1-9% because of the doubling of CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere. A geographic-explicit, statistical model, based on recent storms and storm damage data for the Netherlands, shows that an increase of 2% in wind intensity by the year 2015 could lead to a 50% increase in storm damage to houses and businesses. Only 20% of the increase is due to population and economic growth. A 6% increase could even triple the damage. A simpler model - based on national average data and combined with a stochastic storm generator - shows that the average annual damage could increase by 80% with a 2% increase in wind intensity. A 6% wind intensity increase could lead to an average annual damage increase of 500%. The damage in Northwest Europe is about a factor 6 higher than the damage in the Netherlands. Little potential seems to exist for reducing the vulnerability to storms in the Netherlands. More attention should be given to planning at the government level for disaster relief and to the development of coping strategies. 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RP Vorosmarty, CJ, Univ New Hampshire, Water Syst Anal Grp, Inst Study Earth Oceans & Space, Durham, NH 03824 USA. AB Earth Systems Science has made significant strides over the last decade in developing consistent, high quality, spatially-contiguous, and in many cases real-time bioegoephysical data sets. Many of these data sources depict key elements of the land-based water cycle. To date, this information has been poorly integrated into global water assessment and vulnerability studies. This paper presents a review of newly-emerging Earth Systems Science products together with a strategy for entraining these into global water assessments. The text highlights several conceptual, technical, and institutional obstacles that require attention before a successful integration can be realized. A major challenge rests in developing a common conceptual framework and nomenclature to bridge gaps between the physical sciences and current generation of water resource assessments, which have traditionally relied heavily on descriptive case studies and a socioeconomic approach. Another goal of this paper is to better articulate the scope of human control of the terrestrial water cycle - beyond climate change alone and to quantify its impact on sustainable water supplies. Opportunities for integration across disciplines are identified, and specific recommendations are formulated. An argument is made for the unique role that geographically-referenced continental and global-scale analysis can play in future assessments of freshwater resources and water-related vulnerability. 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Carnegie Mellon Univ, Ctr Integrated Study Human Dimens Global Change, Pittsburgh, PA 15213 USA. RP Yohe, GW, Wesleyan Univ, Dept Econ, Middletown, CT 06459 USA. AB Three types of adaptation can influence significantly a system's prospective longevity in the face of climate change. The ability to cope with variation in its current environment can help a system adapt to changes over the longer term. The ability to take advantage of beneficial changes that might coincide with potentially harmful ones can play an even larger role; and focusing attention on maximizing a system's sustainable lifetime can highlight the potential for extending that time horizon and increasing the likelihood that an alternative structure might be created. A specific economic approach to adaptation demonstrates that research can serve two functions in this regard. Research can play an important role in diminishing future harm suggested by standard impact analyses by focusing attention on systems where adaptation can buy the most time. It can help societies learn how to become more robust under current conditions; and it can lead them to explore mechanisms by which they can exploit potentially beneficial change. Research can also play a critical role in assessing the need for mitigating long-term change by focusing attention on systems where potential adaptation in both the short and long runs is so limited that it is almost impossible to buy any time at all. In these areas, switching to an alternative system or investing in the protection of existing ones are the last lines of defense. Real "windows" of tolerable climate change can be defined only by working in areas where these sorts of adaptive alternatives cannot be uncovered. CR BURTON I, 1997, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V36, P185 DINAR A, 1998, 402 WORLD BANK DOWNING TE, 1997, MITIGATION ADAPTATIO, V2, P19 FREDERICK KD, 1997, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V37, P141 FREDERICK KD, 1997, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V37, P291 MEARNS LO, 1996, UNPUB MEAN VARIANCE MENDELSOHN R, 1994, AM ECON REV, V84, P753 MENDELSOHN R, 1996, ENVIRONMETRICS JUL MENDELSOHN R, 1999, IMPACT CLIMATE CHANG MILLER KA, 1997, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V35, P157 ROSENBERG NJ, 1991, ENVIRON CONSERV, V18, P313 ROSENZWEIG C, 1993, AGR DIMENSIONS GLOBA SCHIMMELPFENNIG D, 1996, GLOBAL ENV CHANGE AG SMIT B, 1996, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V33, P7 SMITH JB, 1996, ADAPTING CLIMATE CHA SMITHERS J, 1997, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V37, P134 YOHE GW, 1996, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V32, P387 YOHE GW, 1997, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V37, P243 YOHE GW, 1998, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V38, P437 NR 19 TC 3 J9 CLIMATIC CHANGE BP 371 EP 390 PY 2000 PD AUG VL 46 IS 3 GA 352XG UT ISI:000089244200010 ER PT S AU EPSTEIN, PR TI FRAMEWORK FOR AN INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT OF HEALTH, CLIMATE-CHANGE, AND ECOSYSTEM VULNERABILITY SO DISEASE IN EVOLUTION LA English DT Article RP EPSTEIN, PR, HARVARD UNIV,CAMBRIDGE HOSP,SCH MED,1493 CAMBRIDGE ST,CAMBRIDGE,MA 02139. CR 1984, 1984 INT S BIOL MON 1992, OUR PLANET OUR EARTH 1993, 1993 WORLD BANK WORL 1994, UNPUB WEAP WATER EVA BARNES RSK, 1988, INTRO MARINE CHAPMAN VJ, 1977, ECOSYSTEMS WORLD, V1 DIMN SO, 1982, FOOD WEBS GOLLEY FB, 1983, ECOSYSTEMS WORLD A, V14 HIRSCH A, 1980, BIOL MONITORING ENV, P137 HUNSAKER CT, 1990, EMAP EPA600390060 EN JEFFERS JNR, 1978, INTRO SYSTEMS ANAL E JEFFERS JNR, 1982, OUTLINE SERIES ECOLO KAISER HM, 1993, AGR DIMENSIONS GLOBA KASPERSON JX, IN PRESS GLOBAL ENV KASPERSON JX, 1995, REGIONS RISK, V1, P1 KOVACS M, 1992, BIOL INDICATORS ENV LIKENS GE, 1992, ECOSYSTEM APPROACH I MCKENZIE DH, 1992, ECOLOGICAL INDICATOR, V1 MCKENZIE DH, 1992, ECOLOGICAL INDICATOR, V2 NAIMAN RJ, 1990, MAN BIOSPHERE SERIES PALMER TN, 1993, WEATHER, V48, P314 RAMADE F, 1981, ECOLOGY NATURAL RESO RICKLEFS RE, 1990, ECOLOGY ROSENFIELD A, 1992, DISPERSAL LIVING ORG SHERMAN K, 1993, LARGE MARINE ECOSYST SHUBERT LE, ALGAE ECOLOGICAL IND SOUTHWICK CH, 1985, GLOBAL ECOLOGY TEAKALL D, 1992, BIOMARKERS POLLUTION TUDGE C, 1991, GLOBAL ECOLOGY WORF DL, 1980, BIOL MONITORING ENV NR 30 TC 2 J9 ANN N Y ACAD SCI BP 423 EP 435 PY 1994 VL 740 GA BD10S UT ISI:A1994BD10S00056 ER PT J AU Ogata, S Cels, J TI Human security - Protecting and empowering the people SO GLOBAL GOVERNANCE LA English DT Article CR *CAN DEP FOR AFF I, 2003, FREED FEAR CAN FOR P *INT COMM INT STAT, 2001, RESP PROT REP INT CO *UN DEV PROGR, 1997, HUM DEV REP 1994 NEW AXWORTHY L, 2001, GLOB GOV, V7, P19 HAMPSON FO, 2001, MADNESS MULTITUDE HU LODGAARD S, 2002, REPORT FEASIBILITY C MACFARLANE SN, CRITICAL HIST UN HUM MCRAE R, 2001, HUMAN SECURITY NEW D NEWMAN E, 2001, UN HUMAN SECURITY OBERLEITNER G, 2002, OCCASIONAL PAPER SER, V8, P11 PARIS R, 2001, INT SECURITY, V26, P67 RAMCHARAN BG, 2002, HUMAN RIGHTS HUMAN S SEN AK, 1999, DEV FREEDOM, P3 SEN AK, 2000, INT S HUM SEC TOK JU NR 14 TC 0 J9 GLOB GOV BP 273 EP 282 PY 2003 PD JUL-SEP VL 9 IS 3 GA 715JL UT ISI:000184968300001 ER PT J AU Delladetsima, PM Dandoulaki, M Soulakellis, N TI An Aegean island earthquake protection strategy: an integrated analysis and policy methodology SO DISASTERS LA English DT Article C1 Harokopio Univ, Dept Geog, Athens 17671, Greece. Commiss European Communities, Joint Res Ctr, Inst Protect & Secur Citizen, Ispra, Italy. RP Delladetsima, PM, Harokopio Univ, Dept Geog, 70 El Venizelou Str, Athens 17671, Greece. AB Viewing an insular setting as a distinct risk environment, an effort is made here to develop a methodology for identifying core issues related to earthquake risk and disaster protection policy, adjusted to the 'specificities' of such a context. The methodology's point of departure is the inherent condition of the 'island operating as a closed system', requiring an attempt to assess and optimise local capacity (social, political, economic, institutional and technical) to deal with an earthquake emergency. The island is then treated as an 'open system', implying that in the event of a disaster, it should be able to maximise its ability to receive and distribute external aid and to manage effectively population evacuation and inflows/outflows of aid resources. Hence, an appropriate strategic policy approach could be developed by integrating the 'open' and 'closed' system components of an island setting. Three islands from the Aegean Archipelagos in Greece-Chios, Kos and Nissyros-serve as case study areas. 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RP Doos, BR, Global Environm Management, Packhusgrand 6, SE-11130 Stockholm, Sweden. CR *UN, 2001, WORLD POP PROSP *UNCED, 1993, UN C ENV DEV EARTH S *UNDP, 2001, NAT RES DEGR DUCT CU *US AID, 1988, URB DEV COUNTR *WRI, 1996, WORLD RES 1998 99 GU *WRI, 1998, WORLD RES 1996 97 GU *WRI, 2000, WORLD RES 2000 2001 ALEXANDRATOS N, 1995, WORLD AGR 2010 ALEXANDRATOS N, 2000, AGR 2015 2030 BHADRA D, 1993, 201 WORLD BANK BOGUE DJ, 1956, STUDIES POPULATION D, V11 DOOS BR, 1999, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V9, P261 DUFOUR DL, 1990, BIOSCIENCE, V40, P652 FAMINOW MD, 1998, CATTLE DEFORESTATION FISCHER G, 2001, GLOBAL AGROECOLOGICA GARDNER G, 2001, PRESERVING GLOBAL CR KENDALL HW, 1994, AMBIO, V23, P198 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 MUTH R, 1961, ECONOMETRICA, V29, P1 NORSE D, 1992, AGENDA SCI ENV DEV 2, P79 NORSE D, 1992, ENVIRONMENT, V34, P32 NORSE D, 1992, ENVIRONMENT, V34, P6 ROSEGRANT MW, 1999, FOOD SECURITY DIVERS, P167 ROSEGRANT MW, 2001, GLOBAL FOOD PROJECTI SANCHEZ PA, 1976, PROPERTIES MANAGEMEN SCHERR SJ, 2001, UNFINISHED AGENDA, P133 SUNDQUIST B, 2000, TOP SOIL LOSS CAUSES VANTHUNEN JH, 1966, VONTHUNES ISOLATED S VERBURG PH, 1999, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V9, P303 WAGGONER PE, 1994, 121 TASK FORC YOUNG A, 1999, ENV DEV SUSTAINABILI, V1, P3 NR 31 TC 1 J9 GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANGE BP 303 EP 311 PY 2002 PD DEC VL 12 IS 4 GA 620YF UT ISI:000179561200005 ER PT J AU Serrao, EAS Nepstad, DC Walker, R TI Upland agricultural and forestry development in the Amazon: Sustainability, criticality and resilience SO ECOLOGICAL ECONOMICS LA English DT Article C1 FLORIDA STATE UNIV,DEPT GEOG,TALLAHASSEE,FL 32306. EMBRAPA,CPATU,BR-66095100 BELEM,PARA,BRAZIL. WOODS HOLE RES CTR,WOODS HOLE,MA 02543. AB This paper provides an overview of agricultural and forestry development in the Amazon basin, and presents and discusses the main land use systems in evidence today in that region. These are logging, shifting-cultivation and ranching. The issue of sustainability is addressed, and current Amazonian land use is interpreted in light of ecological impacts and long-run viability. Also considered are the ecological notions of criticality, endangerment, impoverishment and resilience. After addressing the threats of land use encroachment to the forest resource base, the paper identifies sufficient conditions for regional ecosystem sustainability and considers desirable technological and policy-oriented responses in this regard. The paper concludes with a call to future research on land use systems, noting, however, that the greatest challenge is the design of equitable government policy for the adoption of sustainable systems. 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One aim of sharing this agenda here is to catalyse discussions among a wider group active in the climate change, development and disaster/humanitarian relief communities about how best to support community-led adaptation. As set out in the Conceptual Overview in this IDS Bulletin, one of the main conclusions of the LCA Project is to suggest strengthening research, policy and operational linkages between these three, currently quite separate, communities. The selection and formulation of research questions reflects a judgement on the part of the authors. The questions are broadly defined to allow elaboration, challenges, re-framings and add-ons, as we may have neglected issues outside our frame of focus: how community-led adaptation in vulnerable countries can be supported through the generation, dissemination and use of research. For convenience, the research agenda is structured around three overarching issues: (1) the sources, nature and dynamics of vulnerability, (2) the costs and benefits of adaptation, and (3) integration of climate change adaptation into disaster risk reduction and development. A separate concluding section sets out cross-cutting methodological issues that are particularly germane to how future adaptation research should be conducted, by whom and across what time frames. CR 2005, INT S STAB GHGS 1 3 *AIACC, 2004, 2 AIACC REG WORKSH A *DELPH GROUP, 2005, NAT PLANN CLIM CHANG *DFID, 2005, IIED REP CLIM CHANG *INT FED RED CROSS, 2004, WORLD DIS REP *OECD, 2002, BEN CLIM POL IMPR IN *OECD, 2005, ENVEPOCGFSDRG15FINAL *TERI, CAS STUD IND ADGER WN, 2003, GOVERNING NATURAL RE, CH4 ADGER WN, 2004, 7 TYND CTR BURTON I, 2004, LOOK YOU LEAP RISK M CANNON T, 2004, SOCIAL VULNERABILITY CHAMBERS R, 1989, IDS B, V20, P1 EASTERLING WE, 2004, FCCCSBSTA2005 FENECH A, 2004, BUILDING ADAPTIVE CA HITZ S, 2004, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V14, P201 HUQ S, 2003, MAINSTREAMING ADAPTA ICHIKAWA A, 2004, ENV THREATS VULNERAB KAPLINSKY R, 2005, IMPACT ASIAN DRIVERS LONGHURST R, 1994, IDS BULL-I DEV STUD, V25, P17 MAXWELL S, 1994, IDS B, V25 MEHTA L, 2001, IDS B, V32 MITCHELL T, 2003, 8 BENF HAZ RES CTR MOENCH M, 2004, ADAPTIVE CAPACITY LI OBRIEN KL, 2004, WHATS WORD CONFLICTI PASTEUR K, 2004, LESSONS CHANGE POLIC, V6 RAYNER S, 2005, CLIMATIC POLICY APR SCHOON M, 2005, W054 IND U SCHROTER D, 2004, GLOBAL CHANGE VULNER SHUKLA PR, 2004, CLIMATE CHANGE INDIA SPERLING F, 2005, WORLD C DIS RED BEH VOGEL C, 2005, IDS B, V36, P30 WOLMER W, 2003, IDS B, V34 YAMIN F, 2004, IDS BULL-I DEV STUD, V35, P1 YAMIN F, 2004, TAKING STOCK MOVING, CH19 YAMIN F, 2005, CLIMATE POL, V5, P349 NR 36 TC 0 J9 IDS BULL-INST DEVELOP STUD BP 126 EP + PY 2005 PD OCT VL 36 IS 4 GA 989QD UT ISI:000233687900011 ER PT J AU Dow, KM TI The extraordinary and the everyday in explanations of vulnerability to an oil spill SO GEOGRAPHICAL REVIEW LA English DT Article C1 Univ S Carolina, Columbia, SC 29208 USA. RP Dow, KM, Univ S Carolina, Columbia, SC 29208 USA. AB Losses from an oil spill in 1992 differed substantially among coastal resource users on the Malaysian island of Langkawi. Even among the small-scale fishers, those generally considered to be the most vulnerable to such an event,losses varied significantly. This investigation of vulnerability examines causes for the distribution of losses, including fishers' ability to mediate their exposure to risks and the variety of coping strategies they adopted. Explanations for differences in vulnerability are found both in the everyday interactions of processes shaping vulnerability and in the ways in which the "extraordinary" circumstances of a disaster alter those everyday processes. 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Tyndall Ctr Climate Change Res, Norwich, Norfolk, England. Monash Univ, Sch Math Sci, Clayton, Vic 3168, Australia. RP Dessai, S, Univ E Anglia, Sch Environm Sci, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. AB Climate scenarios have been widely used in impact, vulnerability and adaptation assessments of climate change. However, few studies have actually looked at the role played by climate scenarios in adaptation planning. This paper examines how climate scenarios fit in three broad adaptation frameworks: the IPCC approach, risk approaches, and human development approaches. The use (or not) of climate scenarios in three real projects, corresponding to each adaptation approach, is investigated. It is shown that the role played by climate scenarios is dependant on the adaptation assessment approach, availability of technical and financial capacity to handle scenario information, and the type of adaptation being considered. (C) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *ACTEW, 2004, OPT NEXT ACT WAT SOU *CSIRO, 2001, CLIM CHANG PROJ AUST *NAST, 2001, CLIM CHANG IMP US PO *UKCCIRG, 1991, 1 DEP ENV *UNDP, 2004, AD POL FRAM US GUID ADGER WN, 1999, WORLD DEV, V27, P249 ARNELL NW, 1999, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V9, P31 BURTON I, 1999, 72 WORLD BANK ENV DE BURTON I, 2002, CLIM POLICY, V2, P145 CARTER TR, 1994, IPCC TECHNICAL GUIDE CARTER TR, 1999, GUIDELINES USE SCENA CARTER TR, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, P145 DESSAI S, 2003, INT J BIOMETEOROL, V48, P37 DESSAI S, 2004, CLIM POLICY, V4, P107 DOWNING TE, 2003, CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPT FEENSTRA JF, 1998, HDB METHODS CLIMATE GORDON HB, 2002, 60 CSIRO HOUGHTON JT, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 HULME M, 1999, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHA S, V9, S3 HULME M, 1999, REPRESENTING UNCERTA HULME M, 2001, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V11, P19 JONES RN, 2000, CLIMATE RES, V14, P89 JONES RN, 2001, NAT HAZARDS, V23, P197 MARTENS P, 1999, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V9, P89 MCGREGOR JL, 2001, IUTAM S ADV MATH MOD, P197 MCGREGOR JL, 2002, 1105 WMOTD MCGREGOR JL, 2005, UNPUB J METEOROLOGIC MEARNS LO, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, P739 MEARNS LO, 2003, GUIDANCE USE CLIMATE NAKICENOVIC N, 2000, SPECIAL REPORT EMISS NICHOLLS N, 2004, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V63, P323 NICHOLLS RJ, 1999, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHA S, V9, S69 PARRY ML, 1999, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHA S, V9, S1 PARRY ML, 1999, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V9, P51 PARRY ML, 1998, CLIMATE IMPACT ADAPT RISBEY JS, 2003, B AUSTR METEOROLOGIC, V16, P6 SADLER B, 2004, INFORMED ADAPTATION SANTOS FD, 2002, CLIMATE CHANGE PORTU SCHERAGA JD, 1998, CLIMATE RES, V11, P85 SMITH JB, 2001, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V50, P1 SNIDVONGS A, 2003, AIACC NOTES, V2, P5 WHITE A, 1999, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHA S, V9, S21 WILLOWS RI, 2003, CLIMATE ADAPTATION R NR 43 TC 1 J9 GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANGE BP 87 EP 97 PY 2005 PD JUL VL 15 IS 2 GA 931VR UT ISI:000229514100003 ER PT J AU LEEMANS, R TI MODELING ECOLOGICAL AND AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS OF GLOBAL CHANGE ON A GLOBAL SCALE SO JOURNAL OF SCIENTIFIC & INDUSTRIAL RESEARCH LA English DT Article RP LEEMANS, R, NATL INST PUBL HLTH & ENVIRONM PROTECT,DEPT GLOBAL CHANGE,POB 1,3720 BA BILTHOVEN,NETHERLANDS. AB The changing composition of the atmosphere could lead to significant changes in regional and continental climate. The methodology to develop consistent climate-change scenarios and to link them to different impact-models is discussed. Results of both static and dynamic models are presented and the advantages and disadvantages of the different approaches are addressed. Examples are drawn from different impact studies on large-scale vegetation patterns, forest dynamics and agricultural systems. General conclusions of these studies are that vegetation and agricultural zones will shift on global, continental and regional scales, but that large uncertainties still exist in the timing, actual response and rate of change of the current zones. Despite these uncertainties, the direction of these models indicates future developments and could be used for policy purposes. 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RP Moser, SC, Natl Ctr Atmospher Res, Inst Study Soc & Environm, POB 3000, Boulder, CO 80307 USA. AB Uncertainties in the human dimensions of global change deeply affect the assessment and responses to climate change impacts such as sea-level rise (SLR). This paper explores the uncertainties in the assessment process and in state-level policy and management responses of three US states to SLR. The findings reveal important political, economic, managerial, and social factors that enable or constrain SLR responses; question disasters as policy windows; and uncover new policy opportunities in the history of state coastal policies. Results suggest that a more realistic, and maybe more useful picture of climate change impacts will emerge if assessments take more seriously the locally embedded realities and constraints that affect individual decision-makers' and communal responses to climate change. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 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1993, KNOWLEDGE, V15, P157 RAYNER S, 1994, TSUK WORKSH IPCC WOR RAYNER S, 1998, HUMAN CHOICE CLIMATE ROTMANS J, 1998, HUMAN CHOICE CLIMATE, V3, P291 ROWE WD, 1994, RISK ANAL, V14, P743 SABATIER PA, 1993, POLICY CHANGE LEARNI SAREWITZ D, 2000, AAAS SCI TECHNOLOGY, P136 SAREWITZ D, 2000, ATLANTIC MONTHLY, V286, P55 SCHLANGER J, 1995, DIOGENES, V43, P1 SCHNEIDER SH, 1998, J RISK RES, V1, P165 SCHWARTZ P, 2003, INEVITABLE SURPRISES SMITHSON M, 1985, J THEOR SOC BEHAV, V15, P151 SMITHSON M, 1988, IGNORANCE UNCERTAINT SOLECKI WD, 1994, ENVIRON MANAGE, V18, P587 SUTER GW, 1987, ENVIRON MANAGE, V11, P295 SVEDIN U, 1987, SURPRISING FUTURES N SVENSON O, 2003, EMERGING PERSPECTIVE, P287 TERCHUNIAN AV, 1994, EC SNAP SHOT LONG IS TRAVIS W, 2003, COMMUNICATION 0909 TURNER BL, 2003, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V100, P8074 VANASSELT M, 1995, UNCERTAINTY INTEGRAT VANASSELT M, 1999, 1999 OP M HUM DIM GL VANASSELT MBA, 1996, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V6, P121 VAUGHAN DG, 2005, SCIENCE, V308, P1877 WALKER VR, 1991, CONN L REV, V23, P567 WILLIAMS JB, 1995, AUST J ZOOL, V43, P1 WILLOWS R, 2003, CLIMATE ADAPTATION R WYNNE B, 1987, SCI PUBL POLICY, P95 WYNNE B, 1992, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V6, P87 YOUNG OR, 2002, I DIMENSIONS ENV CHA NR 129 TC 2 J9 GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANGE BP 353 EP 369 PY 2005 PD DEC VL 15 IS 4 GA 988TG UT ISI:000233623200007 ER PT J AU Wisner, B TI Risk and the neoliberal state: Why post-Mitch lessons didn't reduce El Salvador's earthquake losses SO DISASTERS LA English DT Article C1 Oberlin Coll, Environm Studies Program, Oberlin, OH 44074 USA. RP Wisner, B, Oberlin Coll, Environm Studies Program, 373 Edgemeer Pl, Oberlin, OH 44074 USA. AB Although El Salvador suffered light losses from Hurricane Mitch in 1998, it benefited from the increased international aid and encouragement for advance planning, especially mitigation and prevention interventions. Thus, one would have supposed, El Salvador would have been in a very advantageous position, able more easily than its economically crippled neighbours, Honduras and Nicaragua, to implement the 'lessons of Mitch'. A review of the recovery plan tabled by the El Salvador government following the earthquakes of early 2001 shows that despite the rhetoric in favour of 'learning the lessons of Mitch, very little mitigation and prevention had actually been put in place between the hurricane (1998) and the earthquakes (2001). The recovery plan is analysed in terms of the degree to which it deals with root causes of disaster vulnerability, namely, the economic and political marginality of much of the population and environmental degradation. An explanation for the failure to implement mitigation and preventive actions is traced to the adherence by the government of El Salvador to an extreme form of neoliberal, free market ideology, and the deep fissures and mistrust in a country that follow a long and bloody civil war. CR 2001, SIGLO 0516 *DGEC, 2000, ENC HOG PROP MULT *GOES, 1999, RELIEFWEB 0528 *GOES, 2001, CONS GROUP M COORD I *IFRC, 1999, 1 IFRC *IFRC, 2001, 12 IFRC *PAHO, 2001, DISASTERS PREVENTION, V83, S3 *UNDP, 1999, CENTR AM LEAD PROM B *UNES, 2000, PROP LEY PREV MIT DE *UNRISD, 2000, VIS HANDS ALEXANDER D, 2000, CONFRONTING CASTROPH BARRY T, 1987, SEEDS REBELLION LAND BARRY T, 1990, EL SALVADOR COUNTRY BLAIKIE PM, 1994, RISK NATURAL HAZARDS, V1, P1 BOMMER J, B PRISMA, V18 BOYCE J, 1997, REBUILDING SOC CIVIL CANNON T, 2000, FLOODS, V1 COMFORT L, 1999, ENV HAZARDS, V1, P39 FABER D, 1993, MONTHLY REV FABER D, 2001, US POLICY MUST ADDRE FLORES D, 2000, ALTERNATIVAS DESARRO, V67, P15 GAMARRA L, 2000, GUATEMALA HACIA GEST GIROT P, 2000, RAIZ VUELO USO RECUR HEWITT K, 1996, REGIONS RISK GEOGRAP, V1, P1 HOY, 2001, COMMUNICATION 0331 IBARRA A, 2000, HACIA GESTION ECOLOG LAVELL A, 1994, DISASTERS DEV ENV LAVELL A, 1998, ANUARIO SOCIAL POLIT, V2 LOMNITZ C, IN PRESS SEISMOLOGIC PLATT R, 1999, DISASTERS DEMOCRACY SEN AK, 2000, DEV FREEDOM WEAVER F, 1994, INSIDE VOLCANO HIST WISNER B, 2000, FLOODS, V1 WISNER B, 2001, UN CHRONICLE, V37, P6 NR 34 TC 2 J9 DISASTERS BP 251 EP 268 PY 2001 PD SEP VL 25 IS 3 GA 472MM UT ISI:000170988000006 ER PT J AU Pelling, M TI The political ecology of flood hazard in urban Guyana SO GEOFORUM LA English DT Article C1 Univ Liverpool, Dept Geog, Liverpool L69 3BX, Merseyside, England. RP Pelling, M, Univ Liverpool, Dept Geog, Liverpool L69 3BX, Merseyside, England. AB Some 90% of the Guyanese population are at risk from contemporary flood hazard and the potential impacts of climate change and sea-level rise. Such risks are not the product of physical systems alone, and by using a political ecology frame the geography of flood hazard in urban environments can be seen to coevolve with political, social and economic systems. These systems are explored by a historical review which traces the roots of present vulnerability to the colonial experience, and an analysis of contemporary vulnerabilities which draws from a peri-urban and an urban case study. The case studies show that the current fashion in international donor agencies to fund 'community sponsored development' has missed an opportunity to enhance security through grassroots empowerment, and rather that those community organisations associated with this system have been co-opted by political elites reproducing embedded distributions of power and vulnerability. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. CR 1997, CAPITAL PUNISHME JAN, P17 *DHV ENV INFR, 1992, REP MORPH ASP *FAO, 1990, TCPGUY8953 UN *IICA IFAD, 1994, RES SOC SURV COAST A *NDI, 1995, LOC DEM GUYAN *NEDECO, 1972, REP SEA DEF STUD *SWED, 1995, 69484 SWED *UNDP, 1995, SQUATT SETTL DEPR AR *W HALCR PARTN PLC, 1994, HOUS SURV GEORG WAT *W HALCR PARTN PLC, 1994, SEW SYST REP GEORG 3, V1 *WHO, 1993, HLTH AM GUYAN *WORLD BANK, 1993, GUYAN PUBL SECT REV ABERNETHY CL, 1980, 30 OD HYDR RES STAT ALLERSMA E, 1990, SEA LEVEL RISE SELEC BABER C, 1986, GUYANA POLITICS EC S BLAIKIE PM, 1987, LAND DEGRADATION SOC BLAIKIE PM, 1994, RISK NATURAL HAZARDS BRYANT RL, 1998, PROG PHYS GEOG, V22, P79 BYNOE ML, 1996, GUYANA REV, V38, P26 CAMACHO F, 1988, IMPLICATIONS SEA LEV CAMACHO RF, 1994, POLICY ENV ASPECTS W CHAMBERS R, 1995, ENVIRON URBAN, V7, P173 CHAN NW, 1996, GEOGR J 3, V162, P313 COLCHESTER M, 1997, GUYANA FRAGILE FRONT DALY VT, 1974, MAKING GUYANA DESAI V, 1995, COMMUNITY PARTICIPAT DEVEREAUX S, 1993, THEORIES FAMINE DREZE J, 1991, SOCIAL SECURITY DEV EVANS P, 1996, WORLD DEV, V24 FERGUSON T, 1995, STRUCTURAL ADJUSTMEN FOWLER AM, 1995, NAT HAZARDS, V11, P283 GLASGOW RA, 1970, GUYANA RACE POLITICS GRIFFITH IL, 1997, THIRD WORLD Q, V18, P267 GROVEWHITE R, 1996, RISK ENV MODERNITY N JAMES R, 1920, STORY GEORGETOWN KEMP S, 1993, STAT ANAL GEORGETOWN KEMP S, 1994, CLIM CHANG C 12 SEPT LAKHAN VC, 1994, OCEAN COAST MANAGE, V22, P169 LATCHMANSINGH, 1994, SEA DEFENCE CONSTRUC LEACH M, 1996, LIE LAND MOSER C, 1994, ENV URBANISATION, V9, P81 OKEEFE P, 1976, NATURE, V260, P566 PAYNE G, 1996, SHELTER SECTOR DIAGN PEAKE L, 1993, WOMEN CHANGE CARIBBE PEET R, 1996, LIBERATION ECOLOGY E PELLING M, 1992, HOUSING STRATEGIES E PELLING M, 1996, CARIBBEAN GEOGRAPHY, V7, P3 PELLING M, 1997, ENVIRON URBAN, V9, P203 PELLING M, 1998, J INT DEV, V10, P469 PELLING M, 1998, WORKSH SUST GLOB HAZ PUGH C, 1996, SUSTAINABILITY ENV U RODNEY W, 1981, HIST GUYANESE WORKIN SCOTT JC, 1985, WEAPONS WEAK EVERYDA SCOTT JC, 1990, DOMINATION ARTS RESI SEN AK, 1981, POVERTY FAMINES ESSA, V1, P1 SINGHROY V, 1997, LAND USE LAND DEGRAD, P32 SMITH N, 1984, UNEVEN DEV SPINNER JT, 1984, POLITICAL SOCIAL HIS SWIFT J, 1989, IDS B, V20, P8 SWYNGEDOUW E, 1997, ENVIRON PLANN A, V29, P311 SWYNGEDOUW EA, 1995, THIRD WORLD PLAN REV, V17, P387 TROTZ DA, 1995, THESIS U CAMBRIDGE VANDERLINDEN J, 1997, ENVIRON URBAN, V9, P81 VERBA S, 1978, PARTICIPATION POLITI WILLIAMS BF, 1991, STAINS MY NAME WAR M WILLIAMS PE, 1997, LAND USE LAND DEGRAD, P1 NR 66 TC 4 J9 GEOFORUM BP 249 EP 261 PY 1999 PD AUG VL 30 IS 3 GA 231JM UT ISI:000082304900005 ER PT J AU Reinhard, M Rebetez, M Schlaepfer, R TI Recent climate change: Rethinking drought in the context of Forest Fire Research in Ticino, South of Switzerland SO THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY LA English DT Article C1 WSL Swiss Fed Res Inst, CH-1015 Lausanne, Switzerland. EPFL, Swiss Fed Inst Technol, CH-1015 Lausanne, Switzerland. RP Reinhard, M, WSL Swiss Fed Res Inst, POB 96, CH-1015 Lausanne, Switzerland. AB We analyse trends over the past 32 years in drought variables in the context of forest fire research and climate change in Ticino, Southern Switzerland. January to April and in particular the month of March have become drier. This is the time of the year when forest fires are most frequent. Our results show an increasing trend in all climatic variables favourable to drought and forest fires, including the length of episodes without precipitation, sunshine duration and temperature, and a decrease in relative humidity. The only exception is the number of "foehn" days, which have not significantly increased. CR *IPCC, 1995, CLIM CHANG 1995 WATSON RT, 1998, REGIONAL IMPACTS CLI, V1, P1 *IPCC, 2001, CLIM CHANG 2001 SCI AMIRO BD, 2001, INT J WILDLAND FIRE, V10, P405 BADER S, 2000, NRP31 CLIM RISKS CHA BARRY RG, 2003, ATMOSPHERE WEATHER C BRYANT EA, 1991, NATURAL HAZARD CONEDERA M, 1996, 31 PNR CONEDERA M, 1997, INT FOR FIRE NEWS, V16, P2 FLANNIGAN MD, 2000, SCI TOTAL ENVIRON, V262, P221 FREI C, 1998, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V25, P1431 GILLETT NP, 2004, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V31 JOHNSON EA, 1992, FIRE VEGETATION DYNA MEYER GA, 1995, GEOL SOC AM BULL, V107, P1211 REBETEZ M, 1997, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V36, P371 REBETEZ M, 1999, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V26, P755 REBETEZ M, 2001, THEOR APPL CLIMATOL, V69, P13 SCHMIDLI J, 2003, 20 CENTURY TRENDS EX SMITH K, 2001, ENV HAZARDS ASSESSIN TINNER W, 1998, HOLOCENE, V8, P31 TINNER W, 1999, J ECOL, V87, P273 WILHITE DA, 2000, DROUGHT GLOBAL ASSES NR 22 TC 0 J9 THEOR APPL CLIMATOL BP 17 EP 25 PY 2005 PD AUG VL 82 IS 1-2 GA 948QW UT ISI:000230731800002 ER PT J AU Le Goff, H Leduc, A Bergeron, Y Flannigan, M TI The adaptive capacity of forest management to changing fire regimes in the boreal forest of Quebec SO FORESTRY CHRONICLE LA English DT Review C1 Univ Quebec, Grp Rech Ecol Forestiere Interuniv, Montreal, PQ H3C 3P8, Canada. Univ Quebec, CRSNG, UQAT, UQAM Amenagement Forestier Durable,Chaire Ind, Rouyn Noranda, PQ J9X 5E4, Canada. Canadian Forestry Serv, Nat Resources Canada, Great Lakes Forestry Ctr, Sault Ste Marie, ON P6A 2E5, Canada. RP Le Goff, H, Univ Quebec, Grp Rech Ecol Forestiere Interuniv, Succursalle Ctr Ville CP 8888, Montreal, PQ H3C 3P8, Canada. AB Climate influences natural processes at multiple spatial and temporal scales. Consequently, climate change raises many challenges for sustainable forest management; among them, the integration of fire and forest management is increasingly discussed. We propose here an evaluation of the adaptive capacity of forest management under changing forest fire regimes under climate change in the boreal forest of Quebec. Adaptation begins by reinterpreting current practices dealing with climatically driven variability Among them, fire suppression, and regeneration enhancement can contribute to coping with some impacts of climate change. However, there is an increasing need to develop more integrative and spatially explicit management strategies to decrease the vulnerability of forest management to changing fire risk. Some developing management strategies, such as fuel management or the triad approach (zoning system for conservation, intensive, and extensive forest management), present an interesting potential for integrating the fire risk in management plans. While fuel management and fire suppression are indicated for particularly severe fire regimes, protection against insects, and maintaining a shorter disturbance cycle using forest management represent the preferred adaptation options where the fire cycle is lengthening under climate change. CR *MRNQ, 2000, LIM NORD FOR ATTR RA ADAMOWICZ WL, 2003, SUSTAINABLE MANAGEME, P41 AMIRO BD, 2001, CAN J FOREST RES, V31, P512 AMIRO BD, 2002, FOREST CHRON, V78, P388 AMIRO BD, 2004, INT J WILDLAND FIRE, V13, P391 ANDISON DW, 2003, SUSTAINABLE MANAGEME, P433 ARCHAMBAULT S, 1993, HOLOCENE, V3, P255 ARMSTRONG GW, 1999, FOREST CHRON, V75, P497 ARMSTRONG GW, 2004, FOREST SCI, V50, P626 ASSELIN H, 2003, J BIOGEOGR, V30, P1709 BERGERON Y, 2001, CAN J FOREST RES, V31, P384 BERGERON Y, 2004, AMBIO, V33, P356 BERGERON Y, 2004, ECOLOGY, V85, P1916 BERGERON Y, 2004, FOREST CHRON, V80, P458 BESSIE WC, 1995, ECOLOGY, V76, P747 BINKLEY CS, 1994, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V28, P91 BRAIS S, 2000, FOREST ECOL MANAG, V137, P231 BURTON I, 1998, POLICY OPTIONS MAY, P6 BURTON I, 2002, CLIM POLICY, V2, P145 CAMPBELL I, 1999, 1997 SUST FOR MAN NE CARCAILLET C, 2001, J ECOL, V89, P930 CARTER MC, 2004, FOREST ECOL MANAG, V191, P93 CHAPIN FS, 2003, FRONT ECOL ENVIRON, V1, P255 CHAPIN FS, 2004, AMBIO, V33, P361 COLOMBO SJ, 1998, 50 ONT FOR RES I FOR, V143 DALE VH, 2001, BIOSCIENCE, V51, P723 DEON RG, 2004, FOREST CHRON, V80, P341 DESPONTS M, 1992, CAN J BOT, V70, P1157 DESPONTS M, 1993, J ECOL, V81, P719 DROLET B, 2002, SERVICE CANADIEN FOR, P7 FLANNIGAN M, 2001, CAN J FOREST RES, V31, P854 FLANNIGAN MD, IN PRESS CLIMATIC CH FLANNIGAN MD, 1988, J APPL METEOROL, V27, P441 FLANNIGAN MD, 1991, CAN J FOREST RES, V21, P66 FLANNIGAN MD, 1998, J VEG SCI, V9, P469 FLANNIGAN MD, 1998, J VEG SCI, V9, P477 FLANNIGAN MD, 2000, SCI TOTAL ENVIRON, V262, P221 FLANNIGAN MD, 2001, FOREST FIRES BEHAV E, P351 FLEMING RA, 2002, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V55, P251 FORGET E, 2003, CHANGEMENTS CLIMATIQ FORTIN MJ, 2002, ACTA C AM FOR FEU 9, P71 FUSSEL HS, 2002, UNDP EXP GROUP M INT GILLETT NP, 2004, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V31 GIRARDIN MP, 2004, CAN J FOREST RES, V34, P103 GIRARDIN MP, 2004, CLIM DYNAM, V23, P99 HEINSELMAN ML, 1981, WO26 US FOR SERV GEN, P7 HELY C, 2000, J VEG SCI, V11, P813 HENGELVELD H, 2004, CLIMATE CHANGE FORES HESSELN H, 2000, FOREST SCI, V46, P322 HIRSCH K, 2001, FOREST CHRON, V77, P357 HOFGAARD A, 1999, CAN J FOREST RES, V29, P1333 HOUGHTON JT, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 HUNTER ML, 1993, BIOL CONSERV, V65, P115 JOHNSTON M, 2001, SRC PUBLICATION KAFKA V, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE PRAIR KANGAS AS, 2004, FOREST POLICY ECON, V6, P169 KLEIN RJT, 1999, MITIG ADAPT STRAT GL, V4, P189 KRANKINA ON, 1997, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V36, P197 KURULOK S, 2004, 20032004 SUST FOR MA KURZ WA, 1995, WATER AIR SOIL POLL, V82, P321 LARSEN CPS, 1997, J BIOGEOGR, V24, P663 LARSEN CPS, 1998, J ECOL, V86, P815 LAVOIE L, 1998, J VEG SCI, V9, P483 LEDUC A, 2004, P WORKSH EFF CLIM CH LEFORT P, 2003, FOREST SCI, V49, P509 LEFORT P, 2004, ECOSCIENCE, V11, P433 LEGOFF H, 2004, CAN J FOREST RES, V34, P2399 LENIHAN JM, 1995, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V30, P27 LINDENMAYER DB, 2004, SCIENCE, V303, P1303 MARTELL DL, 1994, FOREST CHRON, V70, P164 MARTELL DL, 2002, ACT C AM FOR FEU 9 1, P59 MARTELL DL, 2002, CONSERV BIOL, V16, P1177 MCALPINE RS, 1999, FOREST CHRON, V75, P615 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 MCKINNON G, 2004, CLIMATE CHANGE FORES MORISSETTE JL, 2002, CAN J FOREST RES, V32, P2169 NAPPI A, 2004, FOREST CHRON, V80, P67 PAPADOPOL CS, 2000, FOREST CHRON, V76, P139 PARISIEN MA, 2003, CAN J FOREST RES, V33, P243 PARKER WC, 1998, IMPACTS CLIMATE CHAN, P40 PARKER WC, 2000, FOREST CHRON, V76, P445 PATRY P, 2002, ACT C AM FOR FEU 9 1, P97 PAYETTE S, 1985, NATURE, V313, P570 PAYETTE S, 1989, ECOLOGY, V70, P656 PRICE C, 1994, J CLIMATE, V7, P1484 PURDON M, 2004, APPL VEG SCI, V7, P49 QUENEVILLE R, 2002, SERVICE CANADIEN FOR, P101 SAPORTA R, 1997, CANADA COUNTRY STUDY SCHNEIDER RR, 2000, ALTERNATIVES FUTURES SEYMOUR RS, 1999, MAINTAINING BIODIVER, P22 SINGH T, 1991, FOREST CHRON, V67, P342 SKINNER WR, 1999, THEOR APPL CLIMATOL, V63, P89 SKINNER WR, 2002, THEOR APPL CLIMATOL, V71, P157 SMIT B, 1999, MITIGATION ADAPTATIO, V4, P199 SMIT B, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, P877 SMITH B, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P223 SPITTLEHOUSE DL, 1997, RESPONDING GLOBAL CL SPITTLEHOUSE DL, 2003, J ECOSYSTEM MANAGEME, P4 STEWART RB, 1998, SRC PUB STOCKS BJ, 1998, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V38, P1 STOCKS BJ, 2003, J GEOPHYS RES-ATMOS, P108 VANWAGNER CE, 1987, 35 CAN FOR SERV VANWAGNER CE, 1988, FOREST CHRON, V64, P182 VONGADOW K, 2000, SILVA FENN, V34, P181 WEBER MG, 1992, FOREST CHRON, V68, P324 WEBER MG, 1997, ENV REV, V5, P145 WEBER MG, 1998, AMBIO, V27, P545 WHEATON EE, 1999, GLOBAL CHANGE, V4, P215 WHEATON EE, 2001, SASK PUBL WOTTON BM, 1993, FOREST CHRON, V69, P187 YOHE GW, 2002, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V12, P25 NR 111 TC 0 J9 FOREST CHRON BP 582 EP 592 PY 2005 PD JUL-AUG VL 81 IS 4 GA 962HG UT ISI:000231721000037 ER PT J AU Clusener-Godt, M TI Asia Pacific Co-operation for the sustainable use of renewable natural resources in biosphere reserves and similarly managed areas SO TREES-STRUCTURE AND FUNCTION LA English DT Article C1 UNESCO, Div Ecol Sci, Man & Biosphere Programme MAB, F-75732 Paris 15, France. RP Clusener-Godt, M, UNESCO, Div Ecol Sci, Man & Biosphere Programme MAB, 1 Rue Miollis, F-75732 Paris 15, France. AB UNESCO has been required by its Member States to assist in implementing the recommendations of the World Conference on Science, held in Budapest in June 1999. In particular, UNESCO should identify national strategies for biodiversity protection in biosphere reserves and similarly managed areas, with special emphasis on coastal areas, small islands and mangroves, South-South technology transfer and intensive training for the management of renewable natural resources in selected case studies throughout specific developing countries. With generous support from the Government of Japan. UNESCO is now implementing the ASPACO project from January 2001 to December 2003, in close collaboration with MAB-Japan, ISME and the UNU. The project emphasises the role of biosphere reserves as catalysts for both conservation and development. The complementary roles of UNESCO, ISME and UNU in scientific issues of nature preservation and sustainable use of natural resources are eminent for action in (1) integrated management and sustainable development of coastal areas, including economic zones, and the preservation of natural and cultural heritage via "ethical tourism"; (2) mangrove forest environmental protection, (3) sustainable use and conservation of renewable natural resources under national jurisdiction; and (4) strengthening international, including regional, co-operation and co-ordination. This project will pay particular attention to those countries having or planning biosphere reserves and to those countries whose governments have strong relations with the MAB of UNESCO. Training, capacity building and increase of local capabilities for research and management of sustainable use of renewable natural resources are key elements of the project. In particular, through the involvement of ISME, the project will promote exchange of information, research results and scientists with respect to preservation and sustainable use of biodiversity. It will help to disseminate knowledge of comparative research through publications and/or network databases. Within the framework of action for poverty eradication, the project will try to identify how to improve living conditions for the inhabitants of concerned areas as a basic requirement for human security, with special attention to food and fodder production and the rational use of biodiversity for the benefit of local populations. Capacity building for the development of biosphere reserves will be through North-South exchanges; exchange of experience by training of biosphere reserve managers will be through South-South exchanges. This includes strengthening of existing capacities and increase of local capacity for carrying out management, natural resources assessment, research and training, with special emphasis on the education of young women. Project activities will be located in selected countries of the Pacific region, including small islands of the Pacific and the West Coast of Latin America. NR 0 TC 0 J9 TREES-STRUCT FUNCT BP 230 EP 234 PY 2002 PD MAR VL 16 IS 2-3 GA 553LM UT ISI:000175676700024 ER PT J AU Allison, EH Ellis, F TI The livelihoods approach and management of small-scale fisheries SO MARINE POLICY LA English DT Article C1 Univ E Anglia, Sch Dev Studies, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. RP Allison, EH, Univ E Anglia, Sch Dev Studies, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. AB An approach to poverty reduction in low-income countries known as the 'sustainable livelihoods approach' is applied to understanding the strategies of artisanal fisherfolk confronted by fluctuating fisheries resources. The livelihood approach is explained, and the insights it provides into conventional fisheries management policies in developing countries are explored. It is argued that both state-led management and some of the newer, community or territorial use-rights approaches, if predicated on an incomplete understanding of livelihoods, can result in management directives incompatible with both resource conservation and the social and economic goals of management. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *FAO, 2000, FISH STAT *WHAT, 2000, GOV SUST FUT, P37 AGRAWAL A, 1999, WORLD DEV, V27, P626 ALLISON EH, 2001, J INT DEV, V13, P933 ASHLEY C, 1999, SUSTAINABLE LIVELIHO BAILEY C, 1982, 10 ICLARM BAILEY C, 1986, WORLD DEV, V14, P1269 BAILEY C, 1990, MAR POLICY, V14, P333 BAILEY C, 1994, SOCIOECONOMIC CONDIT, P24 BAILEY C, 1996, SOC NATUR RESOUR, V9, P191 BAYLISSSMITH T, 1991, IDS BULL-I DEV STUD, V22, P5 BEBBINGTON A, 1999, WORLD DEV, V27, P2021 BENE C, 2000, P 10 INT C I FISH EC BERKES F, 1998, LINKING SOCIAL ECOLO, V1, P1 BRYCESON DF, 1999, 43 AFR STUD CADDY JF, 1983, MAR POLICY, V7, P267 CARNEY D, 1998, SUSTAINABLE RURAL LI CHAMBERS R, 1989, IDS B, V20, P1 CHARLES AT, 2001, SUSTAINABLE FISHERY CHRISTY FT, 1982, 227 FAO CHRISTY FT, 1986, NATURAL RESOURCE EC, P118 CONWAY GR, 1985, AGR ADMIN, V20, P31 CONWAY GR, 1987, AGR SYST, V24, P95 CREAN K, 1996, FISHERIES MANAGEMENT CUNNINGHAM S, 1993, 61 CEMARE CYCON DE, 1986, NAT RESOUR J, V26, P1 DAVIES S, 1996, ADAPTABLE LIVELIHOOD DYER CL, 2000, MAR POLICY, V24, P245 ELLIS F, 1998, J DEV STUD, V35, P1 ELLIS F, 2000, RURAL LIVELIHOODS DI ELLIS F, 2001, IN PRESS DEV POLICY, V19 GARCIA SM, 1999, OCEAN COAST MANAGE, V42, P369 GORDON HS, 1954, J POLITICAL EC, V62, P124 HOLLING CS, 1973, ANNUAL REV ECOLOGY S, V4, P1 KESTEVEN GL, 1997, MAR POLICY, V21, P73 LANDE R, 1997, ECOLOGY, V78, P1341 LARKIN PA, 1977, T AM FISH SOC, V106, P1 LEACH M, 1997, IDS BULL-I DEV STUD, V28, P4 MAHON R, 1997, CAN J FISH AQUAT SCI, V54, P2207 MCGOODWIN JR, 1990, CRISIS WORLDS FISHER MOSER CON, 1998, WORLD DEV, V26, P1 OSTROM E, 1990, GOVERNING COMMONS EV PAINTER T, 1994, AFRICA, V64, P447 PANAYOTOU T, 1982, 228 FAO PANAYOTOU T, 1996, 271 FAO PAULY D, 1997, GLOBAL TRENDS FISHER, P40 PLATTEAU JP, 1989, DEV CHANGE, V20, P565 POLLNAC RB, 1991, PUTTING PEOPLE 1 SOC PONTECORVO G, 2001, MAR POLICY, V25, P43 REARDON T, 1995, WORLD DEV, V23, P1495 REARDON T, 1997, WORLD DEV, V25, P735 RUDDLE K, 1992, MARINE RESOURCE EC, V7, P249 RUDDLE K, 1994, NATURE RESOUR, V30, P28 SCOONES I, 1998, 72 IDS SMITH GR, 1996, J ROY ASIATIC SOC, V6, P88 SMITH IR, 1979, ICLARM STUDIES REV, V2 SWIFT J, 1989, IDS B, V20, P8 WILSON JA, 1994, MAR POLICY, V18, P291 NR 58 TC 6 J9 MAR POLICY BP 377 EP 388 PY 2001 PD SEP VL 25 IS 5 GA 492JE UT ISI:000172164000005 ER PT J AU Mitchell, JK TI European river floods in a changing world SO RISK ANALYSIS LA English DT Article C1 Rutgers State Univ, Dept Geog, Piscataway, NJ 08854 USA. RP Mitchell, JK, Rutgers State Univ, Dept Geog, Piscataway, NJ 08854 USA. AB Whereas the verdict is undecided about the effects of global warming on Europe's flood risks, it is clear that Europeans are becoming more exposed and vulnerable to floods. Losses are increasing dramatically, mainly because of population and capital moving into harm's way and also because of human-driven transformations of hydrological systems, including river basins and floodplains. CR 1999, NY TIMES 1229 2001, NY TIMES 2002, DARTMOUTH FLOOD OBSE *POP REF BUR, 1999, 1999 WORLD POP DAT S *SWISS REINS CO, 1999, NAT CAT MAN MAD DIS *UN COMM HUM SETTL, 1996, URB WORLD GLOB REP H ARNELL NW, 1996, GLOBAL WARMING RIVER ARNELL NW, 1999, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V9, P5 BECK U, 1992, RISK SOC NEW MODERNI BECK U, 1995, ECOLOGICAL ENLIGHTEN BRONSTERT A, 1996, PHYS CHEM EARTH, V20, P445 CORNELL J, 1979, GREAT INT DISASTER B DAVIS M, 1998, ECOLOGY FEAR LOS ANG DEVANSSAY B, 1992, INONDATIONS 22 SEPTE DUGAN P, 1993, WETLANDS DANGER WORL, P104 FLEXNER S, 1992, PESSIMISTS GUIDE HIS GALLOWAY J, 1998, ASIAN CHANGE CONTEXT GEIPEL R, 1999, ENV HAZARDS, V1, P77 HANDMER J, 1999, UNPUB MAKING FLOOD W HAUSMANN P, 1998, FLOODS INSURABLE RIS, P6 KEMP L, 1999, RHINE RIVER MISSISSI LOSTER T, 1999, P EUR GLOB CHANG CAT LUHMANN N, 1993, RISK SOCIOLOGICAL TH MCSHANE T, 1997, HARVESTING WILD SPEC, P132 MEYER W, 1994, CHANGES LAND USE LAN MIRONYUK SG, 1999, ANN M SOC RISK AN EU MITCHELL J, IN PRESS VULNERABILI MITCHELL J, 1989, GEOGR REV, V89, P391 MITCHELL J, 1999, CRUCIBLES HAZARD MEG MITCHELL J, 1999, P INT C CHALL MAJ HA, P127 MITCHELL JK, 1998, APPL GEOGR, V18, P1 NEWSON L, 1998, DEVASTATION WORLDS W PARKER DJ, 1996, WAT RESOURC MANGT, V10, P279 PENNINGROWSELL EC, 1994, FLOODS EUROPE FLOOD ROSENTHAL U, 1998, FLOOD RESPONSE CRISI ROTMANS J, 1994, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V4, P97 TURER B, 1990, EARTH TRANSFORMED HU UN, 1991, INT DEC NAT DIS RED VERGER P, 1997, ANN M SOC RISK AN EU VOLLERING D, 1998, ANN M SOC RISK AN EU WATSON RT, 1998, REGIONAL IMPACTS CLI, V1, P1 WEICHSELGARTNER J, 1998, NATURAL HAZARD ASSES WILKE K, 1997, 1 RIBAMOD WORKSH RIV WISNER B, 1999, CRUCIBLES HAZARD MEG, P473 NR 44 TC 0 J9 RISK ANAL BP 567 EP 574 PY 2003 PD JUN VL 23 IS 3 GA 689EC UT ISI:000183477800014 ER PT J AU Simonovic, SP Li, LH TI Methodology for assessment of climate change impacts on large-scale flood protection system SO JOURNAL OF WATER RESOURCES PLANNING AND MANAGEMENT-ASCE LA English DT Article C1 Univ Western Ontario, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, London, ON N6A 5B9, Canada. Univ Western Ontario, Inst Catastroph Loss Reduct, London, ON N6A 5B9, Canada. ROBERT Associates Ltd, Ottawa, ON K2P 0J9, Canada. RP Simonovic, SP, Univ Western Ontario, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, London, ON N6A 5B9, Canada. AB An original modeling framework for the assessment of climate variation and change impacts on the performance of a complex flood protection system has been developed for the city of Winnipeg in the Red River basin, Manitoba, Canada. The modeling framework allows for the evaluation of different climate change scenarios generated-by the global climate models. Temperature and precipitation are used as the main factors affecting flood. flow. generation. The main contribution of the reported work is the use of a system dynamics modeling and simulation approach in the development of a system performance assessment model. The assessment-modeling framework is based on flood flows, capacity of flood control structures, and failure flow levels at different locations in the basin. The results of this study (shown only to illustrate the methodology) indicate that the capacity of the existing Red River flood protection system. is sufficient to accommodate future climate variability and change. CR *HPS INC, 1997, TECHN DOC STELLA *IJC, 2000, LIV RED *KONTZ INC KGS GRO, 2000, FLOOD PROT WINN 3 AHMAD S, 2000, J COMPUT CIVIL ENG, V14, P190 BICKNELL BR, 1997, USERS MANUAL VERSION BRENT F, 1999, J AM WATER RESOUR AS, V35, P1351 BURN DH, 1991, CAN J CIVIL ENG, V18, P36 BURN DH, 1996, WATER RESOUR MANAG, V10, P463 FLETCHER EJ, 1998, P 1 INT C NEW INF TE, P909 FORESTER JW, 1968, PRINCIPLES SYSTEMS HASHIMOTO T, 1982, WATER RESOUR RES, V18, P14 HOUGHTON JJ, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995 KARL TR, 1996, B AM METEOROL SOC, V77, P279 KITE GW, 1994, WATER RESOUR RES, V30, P1547 KLEMES V, 1985, WCP98 WORLD MET ORG LEAVESLEY GH, 1983, USERS MANUAL LETTENMAIER DP, 1994, J CLIMATE, V7, P586 LEWIS JE, 1989, CANADIAN WATER RESOU, V14, P34 LI L, 2002, HYDROL PROCESS, V16, P2645 MANLEY RE, 1978, PIS S 1978 MOY WS, 1986, WATER RESOUR RES, V22, P489 PALMER RN, 1993, P 20 ANN NAT C WAT R, P451 RICHARDSON GP, 1991, FEEDBACK THOUGHT SOC SIMONOVIC SP, 1992, J HYDROL, V131, P269 SIMONOVIC SP, 1997, WATER RESOUR MANAG, V11, P243 SIMONOVIC SP, 1999, WATER RESOUR RES, V35, P295 SIMONOVIC SP, 2001, ASSESSMENT IMPACT CL SIMONOVIC SP, 2001, IN PRESS NAT HAZARDS STERMAN JD, 2000, BUSINESS DYNAMICS SY WARKENTIN AA, 1999, HYDROMETEOROLOGIC PA ZHANG XB, 2001, WATER RESOUR RES, V37, P987 NR 31 TC 0 J9 J WATER RESOUR PLAN MAN-ASCE BP 361 EP 371 PY 2003 PD SEP-OCT VL 129 IS 5 GA 712DZ UT ISI:000184783100002 ER PT J AU Wilbanks, TJ Kates, RW TI Global change in local places: How scale matters SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 Oak Ridge Natl Lab, Oak Ridge, TN 37831 USA. Independent Scholar, Trenton, MO USA. RP Wilbanks, TJ, Oak Ridge Natl Lab, Oak Ridge, TN 37831 USA. AB Relationships between local and global scales deserve more attention than they have received in the global change research enterprise to date. This paper examines how and why scale matters, drawing on six basic arguments; examines the current state of the top-down global change research paradigm to evaluate the fit across relevant scale domains between global structure and local agency; and reviews current research efforts to better link the local and global scales of attention and action. 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RP Kelly, P, Queensland Univ Technol, Serv Leadership & Innovat Program, Fac Business, Gardens Point, Brisbane, Qld 4000, Australia. AB Sustainability scientists call for education that produces sustainability professionals', who understand the need for sustainability and can work towards it. However, students often have very different ideas, usually based on an expectation of continued unlimited economic growth. This paper, based on research with large, diverse, first year engineering cohorts, argues that a reflective process and on-line support can contribute to a learning oasis-a supportive environment that encourages students to leave their cultural and intellectual comfort zones. In these circumstances, most students will engage with the personal and professional challenges of what it means to be Globo sapiens, a wise global citizen and global sustainability professional for an increasingly complex century. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR 2002, GREAT TRANSITION PRO, P70 BADLEY G, 2000, INNOV EDUC TRAIN INT, V37, P244 BARNETT R, 1997, HIGHER ED CRICIAL BU, P173 BARNETT R, 1997, HIGHER ED CRICIAL BU, P6 BAWDEN W, 2002, HIGHER ED POLICY, V15, P129 BEDER S, AUSTRALASIAN J ENG E, V7 BEDER S, 1998, NEW ENG MANAGEMENT P, P3141 BOUD D, 1998, STUD HIGH EDUC, V23, P191 BOWERS CA, 1991, CULTURALLY RESP TEAC, P230 BOWERS CA, 1991, CULTURALLY RESPONSIV BROOKFIELD SD, 1995, CRITICALLY REFLECTIV BURROWES GE, 2001, GENDER DYNAMICS ENG DESHLER D, 1990, FOSTERING CRITICAL R, P297 ECKERSLEY R, 1999, ABN REPORT, V7, P3 EISLER R, 2001, J FUTURES STUDIES, V5, P143 HEATH P, 2000, HIGHER ED ORG TRANSF, V19, P46 INAYATULLAH S, 2000, ADV FUTURES FUTURES, P120 INAYATULLAH S, 2000, TIMES HIGHER ED 0907, P34 JOHNSTON SF, 2000, EUROPEAN J ENG ED, V26, P77 KATES RW, 2001, 200033 HARV U KENN S, P4 KATES RW, 2001, SCIENCE, V292, P641 KELLY P, 2002, FIRST YEAR ENG GIVEN KELLY P, 2004, NOT WIMPS FUTURES TH LOWE I, 2003, DISSENT, V1, P34 MALASKA P, 1997, WORLD FUT STUD FED 1 MALONEY C, 1996, ASIA PACIFIC J TEACH, V30, P40 MARKLEY OW, 2002, ADV FUTURES, P340 PALMER BC, 1999, ADULT BASIC ED, V9, P71 PASSFIELD R, 1996, ALAR J, V1, P14 POSCH P, 2002, ENV SCHOOL INITIATIV, P124 RASKIN P, 2002, GREAT TRANSITION PRO RASKIN P, 2002, GREAT TRANSITION PRO, P56 SCOGGINS J, 1999, TEACH HIGH EDUC, V4, P485 SIDHU R, 2004, MARKET UNIVERSITIES SLAUGHTER R, 2004, FUTURES DYSTOPIA CRE, P45 SMARD D, 2000, FOSTERING SOC COHESI, P53 SOMERVILLE M, 2001, ETHICAL CANARY, P285 STEFFEN W, 2004, IGBP SERIES VOLET SE, 1998, HIGHER ED RES DEV, V17, P5 WALKER P, 1999, TEACH HIGH EDUC, V4, P531 NR 40 TC 0 J9 FUTURES BP 696 EP 707 PY 2006 PD AUG VL 38 IS 6 GA 052WH UT ISI:000238264100007 ER PT J AU SCHRIJVER, N TI INTERNATIONAL-ORGANIZATION FOR ENVIRONMENTAL SECURITY SO BULLETIN OF PEACE PROPOSALS LA English DT Article RP SCHRIJVER, N, INST SOCIAL STUDIES,PUBL INT LAW & INT INST,THE HAGUE,NETHERLANDS. CR 1987, OUR COMMON FUTURE, P332 *UN ENV PROGR, 1987, ANN REP, P8 *UN ENV PROGR, 1988, 1977 ANN REP *WORLD COMM ENV DE, 1987, ENV PROT SUST DEV, R16 BERTRAND M, 1985, UN JIUREP859 JOINT I, P67 LACHS M, 1980, ESSAYS DEV INT LEGAL, P42 MADDERS KJ, 1981, ENCY PUBLIC INT LAW, V2, P276 MESAROVIC M, 1974, MANKIND TRUNING POIN OSTRIHANSKY R, 1988, INT COMP LAW Q, V37, P30 ROLING BVA, 1986, CURRENT LEGAL REGULA, P288 SCHRIJVER N, 1988, B PEACE PROPOSALS, V19, P175 SCHRIJVER N, 1988, UN ATTACK, P33 TINBERGEN J, 1987, WARFARE WELFARE, P158 VERWEY D, 1985, NETHERLANDS INT LAW, V32, P357 WESTING AH, 1986, GLOBAL RESOURCES INT NR 15 TC 3 J9 BULL PEACE PROPOSAL BP 115 EP 122 PY 1989 PD JUN VL 20 IS 2 GA AE409 UT ISI:A1989AE40900001 ER PT J AU Page, S TI Developing countries in international negotiations: How they influence trade and climate change negotiations SO IDS BULLETIN-INSTITUTE OF DEVELOPMENT STUDIES LA English DT Article AB Developing countries have become convinced that trade can have significant effects on their total income and on their development. Most believe that the effects of climate change will be particularly damaging to poor countries, while some of the measures proposed to mitigate it could provide significant financial benefits. Although they are not the most important or direct policy instruments against poverty, the outcomes of trade and climate change negotiations matter. Therefore, countries have started to participate. Participation works best where they have most experience, where they have the broadest range of allies, and where they are not handicapped by aid dependency. Some can point to achievements. Some countries made gains on agriculture and textiles in the Uruguay Round. Since then, some have succeeded in blocking unwelcome initiatives and putting their issues forward. But the World Trade Organization (WTO) and climate change institutions have not yet been changed to be appropriate for more players with more complex interests. CR *ERM, 2002, 8409 ERM *ILEAP, 2003, NEGOTIATION POLICY B *IMF, 2003, REP WTO MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 *WTO, 2003, PROP IMPR DEC MAK PR BIRD K, 2003, ODI WORKING PAPER BOJANIC A, 2001, ODI WORKING PAPER DURRANT N, 2002, ODI WORKING PAPER FROST P, 2001, ODI WORKING PAPER FROST P, 2001, WORKING PAPER GOREUX L, 2003, REPORT AOC HESS R, 2001, ODI WORKING PAPER JAWARA F, 2003, BEHIND SCENES WTO RE MCGUIGAN C, 2002, POVERTY CLIMATE CHAN PAGE S, 2001, TRADE CLIMATE CHANGE, V31 PAGE S, 2002, ODI WORKING PAPER RICHARDS M, 2001, REPORT ESCOR RES PRO RICHARDS M, 2002, ODI BRIEFING PAPER SOLIGNACLECOMTE H, 2001, ODI WORKING PAPER STEVENS C, 2003, IDS B, V34 NR 20 TC 0 J9 IDS BULL-INST DEVELOP STUD BP 71 EP + PY 2004 PD JAN VL 35 IS 1 GA 803OH UT ISI:000220239900008 ER PT J AU Angelidis, M Kamizoulis, G TI A rapid decision-making method for the evaluation of pollution-sensitive coastal areas in the Mediterranean Sea SO ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article C1 Univ Aegean, Dept Environm Studies, Mitilini, Greece. Mediterranean Act Plan WHO MEDPOL, Athens 11610, Greece. RP Kamizoulis, G, Univ Aegean, Dept Environm Studies, Univ Hill, Mitilini, Greece. AB Places of natural beauty and/or cultural value in the Mediterranean Sea are presenting adverse effects due to pollution. These environmental threats caused by point and nonpoint sources are mainly the reason why these areas represent "pollution-sensitive areas," where the risk of deterioration is immediate. However, the risk will decrease and eventually disappear if protective measures are applied. In the present article, a multicriteria decision-making method is proposed for the prioritization of the Mediterranean sensitive coastal areas, taking into consideration criteria of pollution risk such as impact on human health, aquatic ecosystems, and socioeconomic value of the area. Weighting factors were then attributed to the different criteria according to their regional priorities, and a total pollution risk score was calculated for every sensitive area. However, some sensitive areas are more vulnerable than others because of their natural characteristics. Therefore, the total pollution risk score was then multiplied by a vulnerability weighting factor and a Total Sensitivity Score was calculated for every sensitive area. With this method, Mediterranean sensitive areas in coastal zones can be ranked on a priority list and then categorized according to their "sensitivity," in a way that decision-makers can select the most urgent cases to direct their attention for the effective protection of the Mediterranean marine environment. The method is rapid and practicable and has already been used with existing data and information in several Mediterranean countries. CR *UN ENV PROGR WHO, 1996, MED ACT PLAN TECHN R *UN ENV PROGR WHO, 1999, MED ACT PLAN TECHN R *UN ENV PROGR WHO, 2000, MED ACT PLAN TECHN R, V128 *UN ENV PROGR WHO, 2002, EXP CONS M FIN SCI C *UN ENV PROGR WHO, 2003, POLL SENS AR MED *UN ENV PROGR, 1989, MED PLAN TECHN REP S, V28 *UN ENV PROGR, 1996, MED ACT PLAN TECHN R, V100 *UN ENV PROGR, 1998, MED ACT PLAN TECHN R KEENEY RL, 1976, DECISIONS MULTIPLE O ROY B, 1981, EUROPEAN J OPERATION, V8, P207 ROY B, 1986, EUROPEAN J OPERATION, V24, P318 SIMPSON L, 1996, J OPER RES SOC, V47, P919 STEUER R, 1986, MULTIPLE CRITERIA OP VINCKE P, 1992, MULTICRITERIA DECISI ZELENY M, 1982, MULTIPLE CRITERIA DE NR 15 TC 0 J9 ENVIRON MANAGE BP 811 EP 820 PY 2005 PD JUN VL 35 IS 6 GA 938WF UT ISI:000230033400009 ER PT J AU HARDESTY, DL TI RETHINKING CULTURAL-ADAPTATION SO PROFESSIONAL GEOGRAPHER LA English DT Article RP HARDESTY, DL, UNIV NEVADA,ANTHROPOL,RENO,NV 89557. CR ADAMS R, 1965, LAND BAGDAD BARGATZKY T, 1984, CURR ANTHROPOL, V25, P399 BERRY BJL, 1980, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V70, P449 BOONE JL, 1983, RETHINKING HUMAN ADA, P79 BOYD R, 1976, ZYGON, V11, P254 BROOKFIELD H, 1963, STRUGGLE LAND BURTON I, 1978, ENV HAZARD, V1, P1 BUTZER K, 1981 ANN M AAG LOS A BUTZER K, 1980, AM SCI, V68, P517 BUTZER K, 1982, ARCHAEOLOGY HUMAN EC CARLSTEIN T, 1982, TIME RESOURCES SOC E, V1 CAVALLISFORZA L, 1981, CULTURAL TRANSMISSIO CHAGNON N, 1979, EVOLUTIONARY BIOL HU COHEN M, 1977, FOOD CRISIS PREHISTO COLINVAUX P, 1980, FATES NATIONS DEINER P, 1980, CURRENT ANTHR, V21, P423 DENEVAN WM, 1983, PROF GEOGR, V35, P399 DUNCAN JS, 1980, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V70, P181 DURHAM WH, 1976, HUM ECOL, V4, P89 DYSONHUDSON R, 1983, RETHINKING HUMAN ADA ELDREDGE N, 1972, MODELS PALEOBIOLOGY, P82 ENGLEBERG J, 1979, AM NAT, V114, P317 FRIEDMAN J, 1979, SOCIAL ECOLOGICAL SY, P253 GLANSDORF P, 1971, THERMODYNAMIC THEORY GREGORY D, 1978, IDEOLOGY SCI HUMAN G GROSSMAN L, 1977, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V67, P126 GROSSMAN L, 1981, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V71, P220 HARDESTY D, 1977, ECOLOGICAL ANTHR HODDER I, 1982, SYMBOLIC STRUCTURAL HOLLING CS, 1973, ANNUAL REV ECOLOGY S, V4, P1 HORN HS, 1978, BEHAV ECOLOGY EVOLUT, P411 LAUGHLIN C, 1978, EXTINCTION SURVIVAL LEWONTIN R, 1974, GENETIC BASIS EVOLUT LITTLE MA, 1983, RETHINKING HUMAN ADA, P137 MARTIN JF, 1983, AM ANTHROPOL, V85, P612 MIKESELL MW, 1978, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V68, P1 MURDOCH WW, 1975, ADV ECOL RES, V9, P1 NIETSCHMANN B, 1973, LAND WATER PRED A, 1984, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V74, P279 RAPPORT DJ, 1977, SCIENCE, V195, P367 RICHERSON PJ, 1978, J SOC BIOL STRUCT, V1, P127 SPOONER B, 1972, POPULATION GROWTH AN STEWARD J, 1955, THEORY CULTURE CHANG STREET JM, 1969, PROF GEOGR, V21, P104 SYMANSKI R, 1981, IMMORAL LANDSCAPE TUAN YF, 1974, TOPOPHILIA TURNER B, 1981 M AAG LOS ANG WADDELL E, 1973, PACIFIC TRANSITION, P25 WADDELL E, 1975, HUM ECOL, V3, P249 WHEATLEY P, 1971, PIVOT 4 QUARTERS WINTERHALDER B, 1981, HUNTER GATHERER FORA NR 51 TC 12 J9 PROF GEOGR BP 11 EP 18 PY 1986 PD FEB VL 38 IS 1 GA A2601 UT ISI:A1986A260100002 ER PT J AU Peh, KSH de Jong, J Sodhi, NS Lim, SLH Yap, CAM TI Lowland rainforest avifauna and human disturbance: persistence of primar forest birds in selectively logged forests and mixed-rural habitats of southern Peninsular Malaysia SO BIOLOGICAL CONSERVATION LA English DT Article C1 Natl Univ Singapore, Dept Biol Sci, Singapore 117543, Singapore. Swedish Biodivers Ctr, CMB, S-75007 Uppsala, Sweden. Univ Malaya, Inst Biol Sci, Kuala Lumpur 50603, Malaysia. RP Sodhi, NS, Natl Univ Singapore, Dept Biol Sci, 14 Sci Dr 4, Singapore 117543, Singapore. AB We compared the composition and structure of primary forest avifauna among primary forests, selectively logged forests and mixed-rural areas (e.g. villages and agricultural areas) of Peninsular Malaysia. We found that forests that were selectively logged at least 30 years ago contained only 73-75% of the 159 species of extant primary forest birds, with an increased proportion of dominant species. We estimated that only 28-32% of the primary forest species utilized the mixed-rural habitat, and that the number of species that bred in the agricultural landscapes might be even lower. The microhabitat of different species most affected their vulnerability to disturbance. Most small, arboreal frugivores and omnivores, and insectivores that fed from tree trunks, showed greater persistence in the mixed-rural habitat than ground dwelling bird species, which were affected most by disturbance. Resource abundance and variables that were closely related to forest disturbance such as the density of large trees, density of dead trees, canopy cover density and shrub volume influenced the distribution of the primary forest birds. Large primary forest reserves and a revision of short-cycle logging regimes (ca. 30 years) are needed if we are to conserve the lowland rainforest avifauna of Peninsular Malaysia and other parts of Southeast Asia. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *DEP AGR, 1995, LAND US REP PEN MALA *INS CORP, 2002, SPLUS VERS 6 1 WIND *WORLD RES I, 1998, 1998 99 WORLD RES GU ACHARD F, 2002, SCIENCE, V297, P999 BIBBY CJ, 2000, BIRD CENSUS TECHNIQU BROOK BW, 2003, NATURE, V24, P420 BURGESS PF, 1971, MALAY NAT J, V24, P231 CASTELLETTA M, 2000, CONSERV BIOL, V14, P1870 CASTELLETTA M, 2005, BIOL CONSERV, V121, P135 CAUFIELD C, 1991, RAINFOREST CHAO A, 1987, BIOMETRICS, V43, P783 COLLAR NJ, 1994, BIRDS WATCH, V2 COLWELL RK, 2000, ESTIMATES STAT ESTIM COOPER DS, 1998, BIOL CONSERV, V85, P199 DEATH G, 2000, ECOLOGY, V81, P3178 DIAMOND JM, 1987, CONSERV BIOL, V1, P132 HAMANN A, 1999, CONSERV BIOL, V13, P766 HERZOG SK, 2002, AUK, V119, P749 HILL MO, 1979, DECORANA FORTRAN PRO HUGHES JB, 2002, ECOL LETT, V5, P121 HUTH A, 2001, FOREST ECOL MANAG, V142, P33 INSKIPP T, 1996, ANNOTATED CHECKLIST JEYARAJASINGAM A, 1998, FIELD GUIDE BIRDS W JOHNS AD, 1986, FORKTAIL, V1, P65 JOHNS AD, 1989, FORKTAIL, V4, P89 JOHNS AD, 1992, PHILOS T ROY SOC B, V335, P437 LEE SM, 1994, BIOMETRICS, V50, P88 LEE TM, 2005, BIOL CONSERV, V122, P193 LEMMON PE, 1957, J FOREST, V55, P667 LINDENMAYER DB, 2000, CONSERVATION PRODUCT, P13 MARTIN TE, 1993, AM NAT, V141, P897 MATLOCK RB, 2002, AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON, V91, P199 MCCUNE B, 1995, PCORD MULTIVARIATE A MCCUNE B, 2002, ANAL ECOLOGICAL COMM MITRA SS, 1993, AUK, V110, P521 OWENS IPF, 2000, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V97, P12144 PIDGEON AM, 2003, ECOL APPL, V13, P530 PRIMM SL, 1986, CONSERVATION BIOL SC, P309 RAAIJMAKERS JGW, 1987, BIOMETRICS, V43, P793 ROBSON C, 2000, FIELD GUIDE BIRDS SE SCHARRINGA J, 2001, BIRDS TROPICAL ASIA, V2 SMYTHIES BE, 1981, BIRDS BORNEO SODHI NS, 2003, BIODIVERS CONSERV, V12, P2415 SODHI NS, 2004, ANNU REV ECOL EVOL S, V35, P323 SODHI NS, 2004, TRENDS ECOL EVOL, V19, P654 SODHI NS, 2005, BIOL CONSERV, V122, P547 SODHI NS, 2005, IN PRESS BIRD CONSER, V15 SUKAIMI J, 1993, PORIM, V29, P1 TERBRAAK CJF, 1986, ECOLOGY, V67, P1167 THIOLLAY JM, 1995, CONSERV BIOL, V9, P335 TILMAN D, 1994, NATURE, V371, P65 WALTHER BA, 2001, IBIS, V143, P413 WELLS DR, 1985, CONSERVATION TROPICA, P213 WHITMAN AA, 1997, CONDOR, V99, P955 WHITMORE TC, 1984, TROPICAL RAIN FOREST WONG M, 1985, CONSERVATION TROPICA, P249 WONG M, 1986, AUK, V103, P100 NR 57 TC 5 J9 BIOL CONSERV BP 489 EP 505 PY 2005 PD JUN VL 123 IS 4 GA 910UV UT ISI:000227958600008 ER PT J AU Cook, I Miller, RL Ward, DJ TI Prospects for economic fusion electricity SO FUSION ENGINEERING AND DESIGN LA English DT Article C1 EURATOM, Culham Sci Ctr, Abingdon OX14 3DB, Oxon, England. Univ Calif San Diego, Energy Res Ctr, La Jolla, CA 92093 USA. RP Cook, I, EURATOM, Culham Sci Ctr, Abingdon OX14 3DB, Oxon, England. AB Extensive studies of fusion economics have been performed in the last decade within the European Union and the United States. Over the same period major advances have been made in the physics and technology of fusion. This paper summarizes the prospects for fusion making an economically attractive contribution to the future energy mix. With modest physics optimization and anticipated near-term materials, the internal costs of fusion electricity would be about 50% more expensive than electricity from fossil fuels (not counting the costs of pollution abatement) and roughly comparable to renewables. Unlike renewables, fusion provides firm power. The use of advanced materials, technology and physics leads to an internal cost of fusion electricity approaching the internal cost from fission or fossil. Fusion has small external costs, along with wind, about an order of magnitude lower than fossil. Energy scenarios show that fusion could contribute significantly to large-scale electricity production during the second half of the century; the overall cost of fusion electricity is likely to be comparable with that from other environmentally responsible sources of electricity generation. (C) 2002 UKAEA. Published by Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. CR *OECD IEA, 1998, PROJ COSTS GEN EL UP *OECD IEA, 2000, NUCL POW SUST CLIM C *OECD IEA, 2000, WORLD EN OUTL 2000 BROWN MA, 2001, ENERG POLICY, V29, P1179 CABAL H, 1999, 26 EPS C CONTR FUS J, V23, P1453 DELENE JG, 2001, FUSION TECHNOL, V39, P228 HADLEY SW, 2001, ENERG POLICY, V29, P1285 HENDER TC, 1996, 33 UKAEA FUS HENDER TC, 1996, FUSION TECHNOL 2B, V30, P1605 LAKO P, 1998, ECN98085 LAKO P, 1998, ECNC98071 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 MEIER PJ, 2001, FUSION TECHNOL 2, V39, P507 MILLER RL, 2001, FUSION TECHNOL 2, V39, P439 PAPATHANASIOU D, 2001, ENERGY J, V22, P79 SAEZ R, 1999, SOCIOECONOMIC RES FU SAEZ R, 2001, EXTERNALITIES FUSION SCHMIDT JA, 2001, FUSION TECHNOL 2, V39, P513 SHEFFIELD J, 2001, FUSION SCI TECHNOL, V40, P1 TOKIMATSU K, IN PRESS NUCL FUSION WARD D, IN PRESS FUSION ENG WARD D, 2000, FUSION ENERGY 2000 NR 22 TC 0 J9 FUSION ENG DES BP 25 EP 33 PY 2002 PD DEC VL 63-4 GA 628LB UT ISI:000179995300004 ER PT J AU Halvorson, SJ TI A geography of children's vulnerability: Gender, household resources, and water-related disease hazard in northern Pakistan SO PROFESSIONAL GEOGRAPHER LA English DT Article C1 Univ Montana, Dept Geog, Missoula, MT 59812 USA. RP Halvorson, SJ, Univ Montana, Dept Geog, Missoula, MT 59812 USA. AB Water-related diseases continue to pose major threats to children's survival and well-being in many places in the developing world. This article develops a theoretical perspective on the ways in which children's vulnerability to water-related disease hazard is produced within the everyday circumstances of livelihood and child care. Central to this analysis is the role that household resources play in mediating or shaping particular microenvironments of health risk. Further, the effects of local geographies of gender on how household resources are accessed and on how child care is structured are examined. Children's vulnerability is evaluated in a community in the District of Gilgit in northern Pakistan, a region presently undergoing tremendous social and economic transformation. The case study highlights household-level response and adaptation to child health risks associated with diarrheal disease transmission and infection in this mountain environment. The case study draws from edmographic fieldwork involving qualitative household microstudies and interviewing to elicit mothers' resource and risk-response strategies in the context of changes in livelihood systems and household dynamics. CR *AG KHAN U AG KHAN, 1997, PSH DIARRH DYS RES P *AKHSP, 1997, NO AR HLTH CAR PROGR *DIR HLTH SERV NO, 1995, NO HLTH PROJ NO AR 1 *UNDP, 2000, HUM DEV REP *UNICEF, 1997, STAT WORLDS CHILDR *WASEP, 1998, PROP AKDN IMPL AZHARHEWITT F, 1999, MT RES DEV, V19, P141 BARRETT H, 1996, SOC SCI MED, V43, P1579 BEHRMAN JR, 1998, TOO YOUNG DIE GENES, P223 BLAIKIE PM, 1994, RISK NATURAL HAZARDS, V1, P1 CLELAND JG, 1988, SOC SCI MED, V17, P357 CUTTER SL, 1995, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V5, P181 DOAN RM, 1990, SOC SCI MED, V31, P783 ENARSON E, 1998, GENDERED TERRAIN DIS ESREY SA, 1996, AM J EPIDEMIOL, V143, P608 FAUVEAU V, 1994, MATLAB WOMEN CHILDRE GLEWWE P, 1997, 128 WORLD BANK GRIFFITHS P, 2002, SOC SCI MED, V55, P75 HEWITT K, 1997, REGIONS RISK GEOGRAP, V1, P1 HUTTLY SRA, 1997, B WORLD HEALTH ORGAN, V75, P163 IVES J, 1989, HIMALAYAN DILEMMA RE KABEER N, 1999, DEV CHANGE, V30, P435 MATTSON MP, 1999, ADV CELL AGING GERON, V3, P1 MEHTA M, 1994, THESIS BOSTON U MITCHELL JE, 1998, THESIS U COLORADO PAOLISSO M, 1989, WOMEN WORK CHILD WEL, P217 RASMUSSEN Z, 1989, UNPUB INVESTIGATION RASMUSSEN Z, 1996, ENHANCING APPROPRIAT RAZA H, 1996, 3 ANN NAT S IMP RES ROBERTS H, 1995, CHILDREN RISK SAFETY SWIFT J, 1989, IDS B, V20, P8 ULHAQ M, 1998, HUMAN DEV S ASIA 199 VALENTINE G, 1997, GEOFORUM, V28, P219 NR 33 TC 1 J9 PROF GEOGR BP 120 EP 133 PY 2003 PD MAY VL 55 IS 2 GA 686HV UT ISI:000183316300002 ER PT J AU Molua, EL TI Climate variability, vulnerability and effectiveness of farm-level adaptation options: the challenges and implications for food security in Southwestern Cameroon SO ENVIRONMENT AND DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS LA English DT Article C1 Univ Gottingen, Dept Agr Econ, D-37073 Gottingen, Germany. RP Molua, EL, Univ Gottingen, Dept Agr Econ, Pl der Goettinger Sieben 5, D-37073 Gottingen, Germany. AB The risks associated with increasing climate variability pose technological and economic challenges to societies which are dependent on agriculture for their livelihood. In Southwestern Cameroon the natural variability of rainfall and temperatures contribute to variability in agricultural production and food insecurity. This paper explores the impact of climate variability in Southwestern Cameroon on food availability. It examines farm household's vulnerability to food availability relating to climate, and reviews the interplay of climate, agriculture, and prospects for food security in the region. An econometric function directly relates farm income and precipitation, in order to statistically estimate the significance of farm-level adaptation methods. The results reveal that precipitation during growing and adaptation methods through changes in soil tillage and crop rotation practices have significant effects on farm returns. An essential precondition for food security and overall agricultural development in Southwestern Cameroon is a dynamic agricultural sector brought about both by steady increase in agricultural production and by greater efforts in farmer support, to enable farm households to take advantage of the opportunities and to minimize the negative impacts of climate variation on agriculture. CR *CDIAC, 1990, ORNLCDIAC39 *ECA, 1989, CHALL AGR PROD FOOD, P65 *EIU, 1999, CAM COUNTR REP *FAO, 2000, CAM AGR *FAO, 2000, CAM CLIM GLOB INF EA *IPCC, 1990, 1 IPCC WATSON RT, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, V1, P1 *IPCC, 1997, SPEC REP IPCC WORK G *WHO, 1990, POT HLTH EFF CLIM CH ADAMS RM, 1990, NATURE, V345, P219 CHAMBERS RG, 1994, APPL PRODUCTION ANAL, P250 CLINE WR, 1991, ECON J, V101, P320 DOWNING TE, 1992, CLIMATE CHANGE VULNE EASTERLING WE, 1993, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V24, P23 GOLDFELD SM, 1965, J AM STAT ASSOC, V60, P539 HEADY EO, 1961, AGR PRODUCTION FUNCT HOPKINS JA, 1953, ELEMENTS FARM MANAGE HULME M, 1999, CLIMATE CHANGE SCENA JAGTAP SS, 1998, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V10, P59 KOUTSOYIANNIS A, 1977, THEORY ECONOMETRICS KRAUS EB, 1977, MON WEA REV, V105, P1009 LANDSEA CW, 1992, J CLIMATE, V5, P435 MCCALLA AF, 1999, AGR ECON, V20, P95 MENDELSOHN R, 1994, AM ECON REV, V84, P753 MOLUA EL, 1999, THESIS AGR U COPENHA NORDHAUS WD, 1991, ECON J, V101, P920 OZSABUNCUOGLU IH, 1998, AGR ECON, V18, P75 PARRY ML, 1990, CLIMATE CHANGE WORLD REILLY JM, 1994, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V4, P24 ROSENZWEIG C, 1993, CLIMATE CHANGE WORLD ROSENZWEIG C, 1994, NATURE, V367, P133 ROSENZWEIG MR, 1993, ECON J, V103, P56 SELEKA TB, 1999, AGR ECON, V20, P121 SEN AK, 1981, POVERTY FAMINES ESSA, V1, P1 TCHOUNGI R, 1996, STRUCTURAL ADJUSTMEN, P53 TOBEY J, 1992, J AGR RESOUR ECON, V17, P195 VALDES A, 1979, EC DESIGN SMALL FARM WINTERS P, 1999, GLOBAL ENV CHANGE AG, P239 WOLFE DW, 1995, P SUST DEV GLOB CLIM ZELLER M, 1999, C SOC PROT POV ORG S NR 40 TC 0 J9 ENVIRON DEV ECON BP 529 EP 545 PY 2002 PD JUL VL 7 GA 582NL UT ISI:000177358000007 ER PT J AU McKinnon, GA Webber, SL TI Climate change impacts and adaptation in Canada: Is the forest sector prepared? SO FORESTRY CHRONICLE LA English DT Editorial Material C1 NS Consultants Inc, Winnipeg, MB R3Y 1G4, Canada. Nat Resources Canada, Canadian Climate Impacts & Adapt Res Network, Forest Sector, No Forestry Ctr, Edmonton, AB T6H 3S5, Canada. RP McKinnon, GA, NS Consultants Inc, 83 Scurfield Blvd, Winnipeg, MB R3Y 1G4, Canada. NR 0 TC 0 J9 FOREST CHRON BP 653 EP 654 PY 2005 PD SEP-OCT VL 81 IS 5 GA 979VW UT ISI:000232974100023 ER PT J AU OConnor, TG Kiker, GA TI Collapse of the Mapungubwe society: Vulnerability of pastoralism to increasing aridity SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 Univ Witwatersrand, Sch APES, Ctr African Ecol, ZA-2050 Wits, South Africa. USA, Plant Proc & Effects Team, Environm Lab, CEERD EP R,Engineer Res & Dev Ctr, Vicksburg, MS 39180 USA. RP OConnor, TG, Univ Witwatersrand, Sch APES, Ctr African Ecol, P Bag X03, ZA-2050 Wits, South Africa. AB The Mapungubwe agro-pastoral society in the Limpopo valley, South Africa, persisted for 300 yrs before disappearing in about 1290 as a result of a decrease in mean annual rainfall ( MAR) from about 500 mm to the current 340 mm. The influence of rainfall changes and competition from wildlife on cattle and small stock populations was investigated ( agriculture was not) using the SAVANNA model. Six scenarios were compared for a 350 km(2) area (Venetia-Limpopo Nature Reserve) for a 280 yrs simulation period: livestock only, wildlife only, and wildlife plus livestock, for a climate of 'low' ( MAR 340 mm) versus 'high' ( MAR 480 mm) rainfall. High inter-annual variability in rainfall resulted in highly variable grass production, but production of woody plants was more stable. Extreme drought events of one or more years duration resulted in marked population declines of the grazers, cattle and zebra. Populations of mixed feeders or browsers, including kudu, small stock and impala, were comparatively stable, the latter two mentioned were in part stabilised by offtake. Cattle populations persisted under a high rainfall climate irrespective of wildlife, but became extinct within 120 yrs under a low rainfall climate when competing with wildlife, in particular zebra. The size of the persisting populations of cattle or small stock under low rainfall was about half that for the corresponding high rainfall scenario. Pastoralism based on cattle was apparently unviable once climate started changing, and small stock were probably insufficient for meeting societal needs. Although crop failure is a sufficient explanation for the disappearance of the Mapungubwe settlement, destabilization of pastoralism would have compounded food security. The recorded rapid onset of a dry climate is of portent for current-day pastoral societies in marginal environments. CR ABEL N, 1986, ENVIRON MANAGE, V10, P755 ACOCKS JPH, 1988, MEMOIRS BOT SURVEY S, V57 BEHNKE RH, 1993, RANGE ECOLOGY DISEQU BOONE RB, 2002, AFR J ECOL, V40, P138 BREBAART L, 2002, AFR J RANGE FORAGE S, V19, P13 CAMPBELL BM, 2000, ECOL ECON, V33, P413 COUGHENOUR MB, 1984, ECOL MODEL, V23, P101 COUGHENOUR MB, 1984, ECOL MODEL, V26, P177 COUGHENOUR MB, 1984, ECOL MODEL, V26, P203 COUGHENOUR MB, 1985, AFR J ECOL, V23, P179 COUGHENOUR MB, 1985, OECOLOGIA, V68, P105 COUGHENOUR MB, 1985, OECOLOGIA, V68, P80 COUGHENOUR MB, 1985, SCIENCE, V230, P619 COUGHENOUR MB, 1992, ECOLOGICAL INDICATOR, V1, P787 COUGHENOUR MB, 1993, SAVANNA LANDSCAPE RE DELEGORGUE A, 1990, TRAVELS SO AFRICA, V1 DONKIN EF, 2002, P 7 INT C GOATS TOUR, P324 ELLIS JE, 1988, J RANGE MANAGE, V41, P450 GERTENBACH WPD, 1983, KOEDOE, V26, P9 HUFFMAN TN, 1996, QUATERN INT, V33, P55 HUFFMAN TN, 2000, S AFR ARCH SOC GOODW, V8, P14 ILLIUS AW, 1999, ECOL APPL, V9, P798 ILLIUS AW, 2000, OIKOS, V89, P283 KELLY RD, 1976, J ECOL, V64, P553 KIKER GA, 1998, THESIS CORNELL U ITH LAWS RM, 1975, ELEPHANTS THEIR HABI MACGREGOR SD, 2002, AUSTRAL ECOL, V27, P385 MANSVELT PR, 1962, CATTLE BAVENDA MCNAUGHTON SJ, 1990, NATURE, V345, P613 MIDGLEY DC, 1994, SURFACE WATER RESOUR, V1 OCONNOR TG, 1983, ECOLOGICAL RECONNAIS OCONNOR TG, 1992, S AFR J BOT, V58, P268 OCONNOR TG, 1999, AFR J RANGE FORAGE S, V15, P83 OCONNOR TG, 2001, J APPL ECOL, V38, P1314 OWENSMITH N, 1985, S AFR J SCI, V81, P72 OWENSMITH N, 1987, J WILDLIFE MANAGE, V51, P372 OWENSMITH N, 1990, J ANIM ECOL, V59, P893 PRINS HHT, 2000, WILDLIFE CONSERVATIO, P51 SCOONES I, 1993, RANGE ECOLOGY DISEQU SINCLAIR ARE, 1979, SERENGETI DYNAMICS E, P1 SINCLAIR ARE, 1985, J ANIM ECOL, V54, P899 SMITHERS RHN, 1983, MAMMALS SO AFRICAN S TIMBERLAKE JK, 1995, ZIMBABWE B FORESTRY, V11 TYSON PD, 1992, HOLOCENE, V2, P271 TYSON PD, 2000, WEATHER CLIMATE SO A VOETEN MM, 1999, OECOLOGIA, V120, P287 VOIGT EA, 1983, TRANSVAAL MUSEUM MON, V1 WALKER BH, 1987, IUBS MONOGRAPH SERIE, V3 NR 48 TC 0 J9 CLIMATIC CHANGE BP 49 EP 66 PY 2004 PD SEP VL 66 IS 1-2 GA 857PN UT ISI:000224130900006 ER PT J AU Boruff, BJ Emrich, C Cutter, SL TI Erosion hazard vulnerability of US coastal counties SO JOURNAL OF COASTAL RESEARCH LA English DT Article C1 Univ S Carolina, Dept Geog, Columbia, SC 29208 USA. RP Cutter, SL, Univ S Carolina, Dept Geog, Columbia, SC 29208 USA. AB This article examines the vulnerability of US coastal counties to erosion by combining a socioeconomic vulnerability index with the US Geological Survey's physically based coastal vulnerability index. The end product is a county-based index of overall coastal place vulnerability. The results indicate that place vulnerability along the coast is highly differentiated and influenced by a range of social, economic, and physical indicators. Regionally, Gulf Coast vulnerability is more of a product of social characteristics rather than physical attributes. The opposite is true of Pacific and Atlantic coastal counties, where physical characteristics are more influential in determining erosion-hazard vulnerability. It is clear that overall vulnerability of coastal counties cannot be determined without the union of social, economic, built-environment, and physical characteristics. Yet the methods for combining these components are not widely used at present by coastal scientists and policy makers, rendering hazards assessments incomplete and mitigation plans untenable for many places. CR *HJ HEINZ 3 CTR, 2000, EV ER HAZ *HJ HEINZ 3 CTR, 2000, HIDD COSTS COAST HAZ *HJ HEINZ 3 CTR, 2002, HUM LINKS COAST DIS *NAT HURR CTR, 2002, SLOSH MOD *US CENS BUR, 2002, STAT COUNT QUICK FAC BORUFF BJ, 2002, VULN ASS TECHN VAT 3 BRYAN B, 2001, ENVIRON MODEL ASSESS, V6, P57 CLARK GE, 1998, MITIGATION ADAPTATIO, V3, P59 CUTTER SL, 1996, PROG HUM GEOG, V20, P529 CUTTER SL, 2000, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V90, P713 CUTTER SL, 2003, SOC SCI QUART, V84, P242 DAVIDSON RA, 2001, NATURAL HAZARDS REV, V2, P132 DEAN C, 1999, TIDE BATTLE AM BEACH FLAX L, 2002, NATURAL HAZARDS REV, V3, P163 GAMBOLATI G, 2002, MATH COMPUT MODEL, V35, P963 GORNITZ VM, 1992, COASTAL HAZARDS DATA GORNITZ VM, 1994, COASTAL HAZARDS DATA GORNITZ VM, 1997, COASTAL HAZARDS DATA GRAY WM, 2003, EXTENDED RANGE FOREC HAMMERKLOSE E, 2001, COASTAL VULNERABILIT JAGGER T, 2001, J APPL METEOROL, V40, P853 JENSEN JR, 1993, GEOCARTO INT, V2, P5 JENSEN JR, 1998, PHOTOGRAMMETRIC ENG, V64, P1002 KANA TW, 2003, COASTAL EROSION SOLU KASPERSON JX, 2001, GLOBAL ENV RISK KLEIN RJT, 1999, AMBIO, V28, P182 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 MERCADO A, 1994, J NATURAL HAZARDS, V10, P235 MORTON RA, 2003, 03322 USGS NICHOLLS RJ, 1998, TR98002 CPACC NORONHA L, 2003, TERI WORKING PAPERS ODEH DJ, 2002, NATURAL HAZARDS REV, V3, P177 SHAW J, 1998, B GEOLOGICAL SURVEY, V505 SMALL C, 2003, J COASTAL RES, V19, P584 THIELER ER, 1999, 99593 USGS THIELER ER, 2000, 00178 USGS THIELER ER, 2000, 00179 USGS TOBIN BE, 1997, NATURAL HAZARDS EXPL WOOD N, 2002, NATURAL HAZARDS REV, V3, P148 WU SY, 2002, CLIM RES, V22, P225 ZHANG KQ, 2001, J COASTAL RES, V17, P309 NR 41 TC 1 J9 J COASTAL RES BP 932 EP 942 PY 2005 PD SEP VL 21 IS 5 GA 965NC UT ISI:000231956200007 ER PT J AU Chipanshi, AC Chanda, R Totolo, O TI Vulnerability assessment of the maize and sorghum crops to climate change in Botswana SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 Agr & Agri Food Canada, Prairie Farm Rehabil Adm, Regina, SK S4P 4L2, Canada. Univ Botswana & Swaziland, Gaborone, Botswana. RP Chipanshi, AC, Agr & Agri Food Canada, Prairie Farm Rehabil Adm, 408-1800 Hamilton St, Regina, SK S4P 4L2, Canada. AB This study examines the sensitivity of maize and sorghum crops to global warming in Botswana, a country with arid climatic conditions and shortfalls in locally produced grain. The vulnerability of the maize and sorghum crops to climate change were studied using crop simulation models while climate change scenarios were generated from Global Circulation Models. Simulated yields indicated that rain-fed crop production under the observed climate was a small fraction of what could be produced under optimal conditions. The gap was attributed to both physical ( especially lack of rain) and socio-economic constraints. Using the southern African core climate change scenario, simulated yields declined by 36% in the case of maize and 31% for sorghum in the sand veldt region. Yield reductions from the hard veldt region were in the order of 10% for both maize and sorghum. The growing season became shorter, the average reduction in days in the sand veldt region being 5 and 8 days for maize and sorghum respectively, and correspondingly, 3 and 4 days over the hard veldt region. The food security option currently followed in Botswana was found to be a good adaptive strategy under a changed climate. 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Univ E Anglia, Sch Environm Sci, Tyndall Ctr Climate Change Res, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. RP Paavola, J, Univ E Anglia, Ctr Social & Econ Res Global Environm, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. AB This article identifies social justice dilemmas associated with the necessity to adapt to climate change, examines how they are currently addressed by the climate change regime, and proposes solutions to overcome prevailing gaps and ambiguities. We argue that the key justice dilemmas of adaptation include responsibility for climate change impacts, the level and burden sharing of assistance to vulnerable countries for adaptation, distribution of assistance between recipient countries and adaptation measures, and fair participation in planning and making decisions on adaptation. We demonstrate how the climate change regime largely omits responsibility but makes a general commitment to assistance. However, the regime has so far failed to operationalise assistance and has made only minor progress towards eliminating obstacles for fair participation. We propose the adoption of four principles for fair adaptation in the climate change regime. These include avoiding dangerous climate change, forward-looking responsibility, putting the most vulnerable first and equal participation of all. We argue that a safe maximum standard of 400-500 ppm Of CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere and a carbon tax of $20-50 per carbon equivalent ton could provide the initial instruments for operationalising the principles. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 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RP Llasat, MD, Univ Barcelona, Dept Astron & Meteorol, GAMA, Av Diagonal 647, E-08028 Barcelona, Spain. AB The present contribution tries to show some features related with the vulnerability in Catalonia in flood events. This vulnerability is associated to changes in the use of soil : the increasing value of those thinks that can be affected by the flood and with the behaviour of the population. Some considerations about the role of the press are also included. Besides this, the floods evolution in some little catchments is a clear example of those changes. CR *CONS COMP SEG, 2003, EST RIESG EXTR SER MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 BARRIENDOS M, 2003, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V61, P191 BARRIENDOS M, 2003, NAT HAZARD EARTH SYS, V3, P583 BARRIENDOS M, 2003, PALEOFLOODS HIST DAT, P87 BERGA L, 1995, AGUA CATALUNYA, P237 DOLZ J, 1993, US SPAN JOINT WORKSH HUET P, 2003, RETOUR EXPERIENCE CR LLASAT MC, IN PRESS J HIDROLOGY LLASAT MC, 1987, PUBLICACIONS U BARCE, V40 LLASAT MC, 2003, PALEOFLOODS HIST DAT, P275 LLASAT MC, 2004, IN PRESS HOUILLE BLA, V6 LLASAT MC, 2004, NAT HAZARDS, V31, P613 LLASAT MC, 2004, PUBLICATION INTERNE LLASAT MC, 2004, REV AFICIONADO METEO, V20 RAMIS C, 1995, SURV GEOPHYS, V16, P141 NR 16 TC 0 J9 HOUILLE BLANCHE BP 71 EP 75 PY 2004 IS 6 GA 884JY UT ISI:000226082200008 ER PT J AU Verge, XPC De Kimpe, C Desjardins, RL TI Agricultural production, greenhouse gas emissions and mitigation potential SO AGRICULTURAL AND FOREST METEOROLOGY LA English DT Article C1 Agr & Agri Food Canada, Ottawa, ON K1A 0C6, Canada. Agr & Agri Food Canada, Ottawa, ON K1H 5T6, Canada. RP Desjardins, RL, Agr & Agri Food Canada, KW Neatby Bldg,960 Carling Ave, Ottawa, ON K1A 0C6, Canada. AB During the next three decades, Asia will remain the largest food consumer (increasing from 40 to 55% of the global consumption between 2000 and 2015) and the largest source of greenhouse gas (GHG) from agriculture (about 50% of the total emissions). The growth of food demand in Africa and South America will cause substantial increase in GHG emissions by the agri-food sector, unless improved management systems are adopted. The higher food consumption rate (kJ person(-1) day(-1)) around the world is primarily a result of improved crop production and higher percentage of animal products in diet. The latter will, however, result in more CH4 emissions. The growing use of N fertilizers is also a concern. The part not taken up by crops (more than 50%) is either lost through leaching or released to the atmosphere as N gases including nitrous oxide. Between 2000 and 2030, the total GHG emissions are expected to increase by about 50%, with further impact on weather and climate. Mitigation techniques such as improved feed quality for a better digestibility, improved manure management, greater N use efficiency, better water management of rice paddies and/or by increasing the role of agro-forestry in agriculture, have to be considered in order to minimize the impact of agriculture on climate. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. CR *CGIAR, 2001, FUT HARV *EPA, 2001, NONCO2 GREENH GAS DE, P138 *EPA, 2002, EM PROJ NONCO2 GREEN, P73 *FAO IPGRI, 2003, CROP TRUST CONS PLAN *FAO, 1994, CHER EARTH SOIL MAN, P33 *FAO, 2000, 140 FAO *FAO, 2001, P FAO C *FAO, 2003, WORLD AGR 2015 2030 *FAO, 2004, EC SOC DEP AGR DAT F *UNFCCC, 2002, CONL GREENH GAS INV *USDA, 1998, 9801 USDA *USDA, 2004, 0407 USDA *WMO, 2003, 957 WMO *WORLD BANK, 2001, GLOB EC PROSP DEV CO *WORLD RES I, 2004, EARTHTR POP HLTH HUM COHEN SJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, P735 COLE CV, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, P745 COLE CV, 1997, NUTR CYCL AGROECOSYS, V49, P221 DYER JA, 2003, SUSTAIN AGR, V20, P59 GARG A, 2004, ATMOS ENVIRON, V38, P1965 HACIA H, 1991, HIST CLIMATOLOGY SER, V64 HILHORST MA, 2001, 014070 ASAE HOUGHTON JT, 1996, GUIDELINES NATL GREE HUTCHINSON JJ, 2007, AGR METEOROL, V142, P228 LASSEY KR, 2007, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V142, P120 LENG, 1991, 400191004 USEPA OFF LINDAU CW, 1993, BIOL FERT SOILS, V15, P174 MARLAND G, 2003, CLIM POLICY, V3, P149 MOSIER AR, 1998, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V40, P39 MOSIER AR, 1998, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V40, P7 MRAE T, 2000, ENV SUSTAINABILITY C, P7 OLENSEN JE, 2002, EUR J AGRON, V16, P239 PALM C, 2004, ENV DEV SUSTAINABILI, V6, P145 PAUSTIAN KH, 1997, SOIL USE MANAGE S, V13, P230 PENMAN J, 2000, GOOD PRACTICE GUIDAN PIMENTEL D, 1996, SCI TOTAL ENVIRON S1, V188, S86 RADDATZ RL, 2007, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V142, P186 SASS RL, 1992, GLOBAL BIOGEOCHEM CY, V6, P249 SIVAKUMAR MVK, 2007, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V142, P143 SIX J, 2004, GLOBAL CHANGE BIOL, V10, P155 SMIL V, 1997, SCI AM, V277, P58 VANDENBYGAART AJ, 2004, GLOBAL CHANGE BIOL, V10, P983 WATSON RT, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, V1, P1 YAGI K, 1990, SOIL SCI PLANT NUTR, V36, P599 NR 44 TC 2 J9 AGR FOREST METEOROL BP 255 EP 269 PY 2007 PD FEB 12 VL 142 IS 2-4 GA 138SG UT ISI:000244382000015 ER PT J AU Herrick, BM Wolf, AT TI Invasive plant species in diked vs. undiked Great Lakes wetlands SO JOURNAL OF GREAT LAKES RESEARCH LA English DT Article C1 Univ Wisconsin, Dept Nat & Appl Sci, Cofrin Ctr Biodivers, Green Bay, WI 54311 USA. RP Herrick, BM, Appl Ecol Serv Inc, 17921 Smith Rd,POB 256, Brodhead, WI 53520 USA. AB We compared the standing vegetation, seed banks, and substrate conditions in seven pairs of diked and undiked wetlands near the shores of Lake Michigan and Lake Huron, North America. Our analysis tested the null hypothesis that construction of artificial dikes has no effect on the vulnerability of Great Lakes coastal wetlands to non-native and native invasive species. Both the standing vegetation and seed banks in diked wetlands contained significantly more species and individuals of invasive plants. In addition, diked wetlands exhibited significantly higher levels of organic matter and nutrient levels, and significantly higher average pH. Two pervasive non-native invasive species in the Great Lakes region, Lythrum salicaria (purple loosestrife) and Phalaris arundinacea (reed canary grass) were significantly more abundant in diked wetlands. 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SUNY Coll Environm Sci & Forestry, New York, NY USA. RP Driesen, DM, Syracuse Univ, Coll Law, Maxwell Sch, Citizenship Ctr Environm Policy & Adm, Syracuse, NY 13210 USA. AB This article explores the links between international environmental law and the law of free trade. Democratic countries have tended to favor both environmental law and free trade more so than other countries. The more interesting question is whether the converse is true, that is, do environmental law and free trade aid democracy and the development of the rule of law? This article addresses that question. 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Clark Univ, George Perkins Marsh Inst, Worcester, MA 01610 USA. El Colgio Frontera Sur Chetumal, Carretera Chetumal Bacalar, Chetumai 77000, Quintana Roo, Mexico. Harvard Univ, Harvard Forest, Petersham, MA 01366 USA. Clark Univ, Dept Econ, Worcester, MA 01610 USA. Colgate Univ, Dept Geog, Hamilton, NY 13346 USA. Univ Virginia, Dept Environm Sci, Charlottesville, VA 22903 USA. Univ Nacl Autonoma Mexico, Dept Ecol Recursos Nat, Morelia 58190, Michoacan, Mexico. Florida State Univ, Dept Geog, Tallahassee, FL 32306 USA. US EPA, Washington, DC 20460 USA. RP Turner, BL, Clark Univ, Grad Sch Geog, Worcester, MA 01610 USA. AB The tensions between development and preservation of tropical forests heighten the need for integrated assessments of deforestation processes and for models that address the fine-tuned location of change. As Mexico's last tropical forest frontier, the southern Yucatan peninsular region witnesses these tensions, giving rise to a "hot spot" of tropical deforestation. These forests register the imprint of ancient Maya uses and selective logging in the recent past, but significant modern conversion of them for agriculture began in the 1960s. Subsequently, as much as 10% of the region's forests have been disturbed anthropogenically. The precise rates of conversion and length of successional growth in both upland and wetland forests are tied to policy and political economic conditions. Pressures on upland forests are exacerbated by the development of infrastructure for El Mundo Maya, an archaeological and ecological activity predicated on forest maintenance, and by increased subsistence and market cultivation, including lands on the edge of Mexico's largest tropical forest biosphere reserve. In this complex setting, the southern Yucatan peninsular region project seeks to unite research in the ecological, social, and remote sensing sciences to provide a firm understanding of the dynamics of deforestation and to work towards spatially explicit assessments and models that can be used to monitor and project forest change under different assumptions. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V All rights reserved. CR 1999, GLOB CHANG NEWSLETTE, V39 *SSC LUCC, 1999, 46IHDP IGBP ACHARD F, 1998, TREES PUBL SERIES B ACOPA D, 1998, TIMBER TOURISTS TEMP, P81 ANDERSEN LE, 1996, J ENV DEV, V5, P308 ANGELSEN A, 1999, WORLD BANK RES OBSER, V14, P73 BARROW CJ, 1991, LAND DEGRADATION DEV BROOKFIELD H, 1995, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V5, P263 BROOKFIELD H, 1995, PLACE FOREST ENV SOC CABALLERO RR, 1944, EXPLOTACIOIN MONTES CAIRNS MA, 1995, J FOREST, V93, P21 CALHOUN JM, 1998, CONTRIBUTION U WASHI, V78 CHOMITZ KM, 1996, WORLD BANK ECON REV, V10, P487 CINCOTTA RP, 2000, NATURES PLACE HUMAN DAILY GC, 2000, SCIENCE, V289, P395 DEFRIES RS, 1999, GLOBAL BIOGEOCHEM CY, V13, P803 DIRZO R, 1992, CONSERV BIOL, V6, P84 DOWNING TE, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE WORLD ERICKSON J, 1999, 1 AM ASS ADV SCI GEOGHEGAN J, 1997, ECOL ECON, V23, P251 GEOGHEGAN J, 2001, AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON, V1765, P1 GOMEZPOMPA A, 1987, INTERCIENCIA, V12, P10 HALL CAS, 2000, QUANTIFYING SUSTAINA HOUGHTON RA, 2000, NATURE, V403, P301 HUGHES RF, 1999, ECOLOGY, V80, P1892 KASPERSON JX, 1995, REGIONS RISK, V1, P1 KLEPEIS P, 2000, GOVT POLICY TROPICAL KLEPEIS P, 2000, THESIS CLARK U WORCE KLEPEIS P, 2001, LAND USE POLICY, V18, P27 KREMEN C, 2000, SCIENCE, V288, P1828 LAMBERT JDH, 1981, SCIENCE, V216, P298 LAMBIN EF, 1994, MODELING DEFORESTATI LIVERMAN DM, 1998, PEOPLE PIXELS LINKIN LUNDELL C, 1934, PUBL CARNEGIE I WASH, V436, P253 MASCAUSSEL J, 1996, JAINA, V7, P5 MASERA OR, 1997, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V35, P265 MERINO L, 1996, CUADERNOS AGRARIOS, V14, P157 MERTENS B, 2000, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V90, P467 MIRANDA F, 1959, RECURSOS NATURALES S, P215 MORAN EF, 1998, PEOPLE PIXELS LINKIN OBRIEN KL, 1998, SACRIFICING FOREST E PENNINGTON TD, 1968, ARBOLES TROPICALES M PEREZSALICRUP D, 2000, FOREST TYPES SO YUCA, P323 PFAFF ASP, 1999, J ENVIRON ECON MANAG, V37, P26 PRIMACK RB, 1998, TIMBER TOURISTS TEMP RICE DS, 1990, PRECOLUMBIAN POPULAT, P123 SADER SA, 1994, HUM ECOL, V22, P317 SNOOK A, 1998, AGROFOR TODAY, V10, P15 SNOOK LK, 1998, TIMBER TOURISTS TEMP, P61 SOHN YS, 1999, PHOTOGRAMM ENG REM S, V65, P947 STANDLEY PC, 1930, FIELD MUS NAT HIST B, V3, P157 STEADMANEDWARDS P, 1997, SOCIOECONOMIC ROOT C TURNER BL, 1983, DELLPLAIN LATIN AM S, V13 TURNER BL, 1990, HUNGER HIST FOOD SHO, P178 UHL C, 1982, OIKOS, V38, P313 UTTING P, 1993, TREES PEOPLE POWER S VANCE C, 2000, THESIS CLARK U WORCE VILLAR SC, 1999, B I GEOGRAFIA UNAM I, V38, P41 VITOUSEK PM, 1997, SCIENCE, V277, P494 WHITMORE TM, 1990, EARTH TRANSFORMED HU, P25 WHITMORE TM, 1992, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V82, P402 NR 61 TC 19 J9 FOREST ECOL MANAGE BP 353 EP 370 PY 2001 PD DEC 1 VL 154 IS 3 GA 494MZ UT ISI:000172287600002 ER PT J AU Baron, JS Poff, NL Angermeier, PL Dahm, CN Gleick, PH Hairston, NG Jackson, RB Johnston, CA Richter, BD Steinman, AD TI Meeting ecological and societal needs for freshwater SO ECOLOGICAL APPLICATIONS LA English DT Review C1 Colorado State Univ, Nat Resource Ecol Lab, US Geol Survey, Ft Collins, CO 80523 USA. Colorado State Univ, Dept Biol, Ft Collins, CO 80523 USA. Virginia Polytech Inst & State Univ, Virginia Cooperat Fish & Wildlife Res Unit, US Geol Survey, Blacksburg, VA 24061 USA. Univ New Mexico, Dept Biol, Albuquerque, NM 87131 USA. Pacific Inst Studies Dev Environm & Secur, Oakland, CA 94612 USA. Cornell Univ, Ecol & Systemat Sect, Ithaca, NY 14853 USA. Duke Univ, Dept Biol, Durham, NC 27708 USA. Duke Univ, Nicholas Sch Environm, Durham, NC 27708 USA. Natl Sci Fdn, Div Environm Biol, Arlington, VA 22230 USA. Nature Conservancy, Charlottesville, VA 22901 USA. S Florida Water Management Dist, W Palm Beach, FL 33416 USA. RP Baron, JS, Colorado State Univ, Nat Resource Ecol Lab, US Geol Survey, Ft Collins, CO 80523 USA. AB Human society has used freshwater from rivers, lakes, groundwater,, and wetlands for many different urban, agricultural, and industrial activities, but in doing so has overlooked its value in supporting ecosystems. Freshwater is vital to human life and societal well-being, and thus its utilization for consumption, irrigation, and transport has long taken precedence over other commodities and services provided by freshwater ecosystems. However, there is growing recognition that functionally intact and biologically complex aquatic ecosystems provide many economically valuable services and long-term benefits to society. The short-term benefits include ecosystem goods and services, such as food supply, flood control, purification of human and industrial wastes, and habitat for plant and animal life-and these are costly, if, not impossible, to replace. Long-term benefits include the sustained provision of those goods and services, as well as the adaptive capacity of aquatic ecosystems to respond to future environmental alterations, such as climate change. Thus, maintenance of the processes and properties that support freshwater ecosystem integrity should be included in debates over sustainable water resource allocation. The purpose of this report is to explain how the integrity of freshwater ecosystems depends upon adequate quantity, quality, timing, and temporal variability of water flow. Defining these requirements in a comprehensive but general manner provides a better foundation for their inclusion in current and future debates about allocation of water resources. In this way the needs of freshwater ecosystems can be legitimately recognized and addressed. We also recommend ways in which freshwater ecosystems can be protected, maintained, and restored. Freshwater ecosystem structure and function are tightly linked to the watershed or catchment of which they are a part. Because riverine networks, lakes, wetlands, and their connecting groundwaters, are literally the "sinks" into 'Which landscapes drain, they are greatly influenced by terrestrial processes, including many human uses or modifications of land and water. Freshwater ecosystems, whether lakes, wetlands, or rivers, have specific requirements in terms of quantity, quality, and seasonality of their water supplies. Sustainability normally requires these systems to fluctuate within a natural range of variation. Flow regime, sediment and organic matter inputs, thermal and light characteristics, chemical and nutrient characteristics, and biotic assemblages are fundamental defining attributes of freshwater ecosystems. These attributes impart relatively unique characteristics of productivity and biodiversity to each ecosystem. The natural range of variation in each of these attributes is critical to maintaining the integrity and dynamic potential of aquatic ecosystems; therefore, management should allow for dynamic change. Piecemeal approaches cannot solve the problems confronting freshwater ecosystems. Scientific definitions of the requirements to protect and maintain aquatic ecosystems are necessary but insufficient for establishing the appropriate distribution between societal and ecosystem water needs. For scientific knowledge to be implemented science must be connected to a political agenda for sustainable development. We offer these recommendations as. a beginning to redress how water is viewed and managed in the United States: (1) Frame national and regional water management policies to explicitly incorporate freshwater ecosystem needs, particularly those related to naturally variable flow regimes and to the linking of water quality with water quantity; (2) Define water resources to include watersheds, so that freshwaters are viewed within a landscape, or systems context; (3) Increase communication and education across disciplines, especially among engineers, hydrologists, economists, and ecologists to facilitate an integrated view of freshwater resources; (4) Increase restoration efforts, using well-grounded ecological principles as guidelines; (5) Maintain and protect the remaining freshwater ecosystems that have high integrity; and (6) Recognize the dependence of human society on naturally functioning ecosystems. 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RP Howarth, RB, Dartmouth Coll, Environm Studies Program, Hanover, NH 03755 USA. AB Economic studies of climate change commonly discount the future at a rate equal to the long-run return on corporate stocks. Stock market returns, however, are dominated by a risk premium, while climate change mitigation measures would reduce important risks to future welfare. Drawing on the theory of investment behavior under uncertainty, this paper argues that the benefits of climate stabilization policies should be discounted at a rate equal to the annual return on risk-free financial assets, which attains an empirical value between 0 and 2.6%. In addition, expected benefits must be adjusted to account for the value of risk abatement. CR *IBB ASS, 2001, STOCKS BONDS BILLS I *INT WORK GROUP, 2000, SCEN CLEAN EN FUT *IPCC, 1996, CLIM CHANG 1995 EC S MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 ARROW KJ, 1970, AM ECON REV, V60, P364 ARROW KJ, 1970, PUBLIC INVESTMENT RA BLANCHARD OJ, 1989, LECT MACROECONOMICS BROOME J, 1992, COUNTING COST GLOBAL BROWN CL, 1998, FISH DIS DISORDERS, V2, P1 BURMAN LE, 1998, NATL TAX J, V51, P637 CLINE WR, 1992, EC GLOBAL WARMING COCHRAN JH, 2001, ASSET PRICING GERLAGH R, 2001, J PUBLIC ECON, V79, P315 HOWARTH RB, 1995, HDB ENV EC, P111 HOWARTH RB, 1998, SCAND J ECON, V100, P575 KOCHERLAKOTA NR, 1996, J ECON LIT, V34, P42 KOLB JA, 1990, J POLICY ANAL MANAG, V9, P381 KOLSTAD CD, 1996, J ENVIRON ECON MANAG, V31, P1 LAITNER JA, 2001, SOC BEHAV CLIMATE MI, P1 LIND RC, 1982, DISCOUNTING TIME RIS LUCAS RE, 1978, ECONOMETRICA, V46, P1429 MANNE A, 1995, ENERG POLICY, V23, P17 MANNE AS, 1995, ENERG POLICY, V23, P391 MEHRA R, 1985, J MONETARY ECON, V15, P145 NEWELL R, 2001, DISCOUNTING BENEFITS NORDHAUS WD, 1994, AM SCI, V82, P45 NORDHAUS WD, 1994, MANAGING GLOBAL COMM RAMSEY FP, 1928, ECON J, V38, P543 SAMUELSON P, 1969, REV ECON STAT, V51, P239 SANDMO A, 1972, INT ECON REV, V13, P287 SHACKLETON R, 1996, REDUCING GLOBAL CARB STARRETT DA, 1988, FDN PUBLIC EC TOL RSJ, 2003, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V56, P257 WEYANT JP, 1999, COSTS KYOTO PROTOCOL, P1 NR 34 TC 0 J9 LAND ECON BP 369 EP 381 PY 2003 PD AUG VL 79 IS 3 GA 704FM UT ISI:000184328300005 ER PT J AU Paulson, DD Rogers, S TI Maintaining subsistence security in Western Samoa SO GEOFORUM LA English DT Article C1 UNIV S PACIFIC,PACIFIC REG AGR PROGRAMME,APIA,WESTERN SAMOA. RP Paulson, DD, UNIV WYOMING,DEPT GEOG & RECREAT,LARAMIE,WY 82071. AB The globalization of agro-food systems has often negatively impacted farming households. However, globalization is an uneven process with actors in specific localities able to mediate and shape broad structural forces. The persistence of agro-food systems that are not highly commodified in an increasingly commodified, global economy is of particular interest to those seeking alternatives to a global agrofood system dominated by corporate interests. The case of Western Samoa is examined here as a possible example of an alternative agro-food system, where agriculture and food networks are local to regional in scale and embedded in communities. Western Samoan village agriculture has shown great resilience in the face of market forces and a rec int series of disasters. We discuss the internal and external factors that have supported subsistence security in Western Samoa and some of the forces that threaten that security. We conclude that Western Samoans will need an alternative vision of progress to maintain the widespread food security rural Western Samoan households now have. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science Ltd. 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Harvard Univ, Dept Earth & Planetary Sci, Cambridge, MA 02138 USA. Rutgers State Univ, Bloustein Sch Planning & Publ Policy, Program Publ Policy, New Brunswick, NJ 08903 USA. Inst Sci & Technol Sustainabil, A-1210 Vienna, Austria. Univ Oregon, Dept Polit Sci, Eugene, OR 97403 USA. RP Cash, DW, Harvard Univ, John F Kennedy Sch Govt, 79 John F Kennedy St, Cambridge, MA 02138 USA. AB The challenge of meeting human development needs while protecting the earth's life support systems confronts scientists, technologists, policy makers, and communities from local to global levels. Many believe that science and technology (S&T) must play a more central role in sustainable development, yet little systematic scholarship exists on how to create institutions that effectively harness S&T for sustainability. This study suggests that efforts to mobilize S&T for sustainability are more likely to be effective when they manage boundaries between knowledge and action in ways that simultaneously enhance the salience, credibility, and legitimacy of the information they produce. Effective systems apply a variety of institutional mechanisms that facilitate communication, translation and mediation across boundaries. CR IN PRESS PEOPLE ECOS 2001, MAKING NEW TECHNOLOG *FAO, 2000, STAT WORLD FISH AGR *INT COUNC SCI, 2002, SCI TECHN SUST DEV *NRC, 1999, OUR COMM JOURN *UN ED SCI CULT OR, 2000, P WORLD C SCI BANS L *WORLD BANK, 1999, WORLD DEV REP 1999 2 ALCOCK F, 2001, EMBEDDEDNESS INFLUEN ANDREWS CJ, 2002, HUMBLE ANAL PRACTICE BARRIOS E, 2003, GEODERMA, V111, P217 BELLON MR, 2001, PARTICIPATORY RES ME CASH DW, 2000, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V10, P109 CASH DW, 2000, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V10, P241 CASH DW, 2001, SCI TECHNOL HUM VAL, V26, P431 CASH DW, 2002, SALIENCE CREDIBILITY CLARK W, 2002, INFORMATION INFLUENC CLARK WC, 1985, SCI TECHNOL, V10, P6 CLARK WC, 2001, LEARN MAN GLOB ENV R ECKLEY N, 2002, DESIGNING EFFECTIVE ECKLEY N, 2002, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V12, P15 ERGAS H, 1987, EC POLICY TECHNOLOGI, P51 EZRAHI Y, 1990, DECSENT ICARUS FOLKE C, 2002, RESILIENCE SUSTAINAB GLANTZ MH, 2001, CURRENTS CHANGE GUSTON DH, 1997, POLICY SCI, V30, P233 GUSTON DH, 1999, SOC STUD SCI, V29, P87 GUSTON DH, 2001, SCI TECHNOL HUM VALU HARDIN R, 1982, COLLECTIVE ACTION HUMPHRIES S, 2000, SEARCHING SUSTAINABL JASANOFF SS, 1987, SOC STUD SCI, V17, P195 KATES RW, 2001, SCIENCE, V292, P641 LUBCHENCO J, 1998, SCIENCE, V279, P491 MCGUIRE VL, 1999, WATER LEVEL CHANGES MITCHELL RB, 1998, INT STUD QUART, V42, P109 NELSON R, 1982, GOVT TECHNICAL PROGR OLSON M, 1971, LOGIC COLLECTIVE ACT OPIE J, 2000, OGALLALA OSTROM E, 1990, GOVERNING COMMONS PATT A, 1999, POLICY STUDIES REV, V16, P104 PATT A, 2000, COMMUNICATING PROBAL, P10 REINHARDT FL, 2000, DOWN EARTH RUTTAN VW, 2001, TECHNOLOGY GROWTH DE SABATIER PA, 1999, THEORIES POLICY PROC STAR SL, 1989, SOC STUD SCI, V19, P387 TUINSTRA W, 1999, ENVIRONMENT, V41, P33 TURNER BL, 2003, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V100, P8074 TURNER BL, 2003, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V100, P8080 YOUNG OR, 2002, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V12, P73 NR 48 TC 4 J9 PROC NAT ACAD SCI USA BP 8086 EP 8091 PY 2003 PD JUL 8 VL 100 IS 14 GA 702KF UT ISI:000184222500011 ER PT J AU Wood, AW Lettenmaier, DP Palmer, RN TI Assessing climate change implications for water resources planning SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 UNIV WASHINGTON,DEPT CIVIL ENGN,SEATTLE,WA 98195. RP Wood, AW, USA,CORPS ENGINEERS,INST WATER RESOURCES,7701 TELEG RD,ALEXANDRIA,VA 22315. AB Numerous recent studies have shown that existing water supply systems are sensitive to climate change. One apparent implication is that water resources planning methods should be modified accordingly. Few of these studies, however, have attempted to account for either the chain of uncertainty in projecting water resources system vulnerability to climate change, or the adaptability of system operation resulting from existing planning strategies. Major uncertainties in water resources climate change assessments lie in a) climate modeling skill; b) errors in regional downscaling of climate model predictions; and c) uncertainties in future water demands. A simulation study was designed to provide insight into some aspects of these uncertainties. Specifically, the question that is addressed is whether a different decision would be made in a reservoir reallocation decision if knowledge about future climate were incorporated (i.e., would planning based on climate change information be justified?). The case study is possible reallocation of flood storage to conservation (municipal water supply) on the Green River, WA. We conclude that, for the case study, reservoir reallocation decisions and system performance would not differ significantly if climate change information were incorporated in the planning process. CR WATSON RT, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, V1, P1 *PMCL, 1994, TWR MAIN WAT DEM AN *WRC, 1983, EC ENV PRINC GUID WA ARNELL NW, 1995, IMPACT CLIMATE CHANG AYERS MA, 1993, 9252 US GEOL SURV BABCOCK SD, 1994, CEDAR GREEN RIVER BA FREDERICK KD, 1993, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V24, P83 GLEICK PH, 1987, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V10, P137 GLEICK PH, 1989, REV GEOPHYS, V27, P329 GROTCH SL, 1991, J CLIMATE, V4, P286 HASSELMANN K, 1993, CLIM DYNAM, V9, P53 KACZMAREK Z, 1996, CLIM CHANG 1995 CONT, CH14 KARPACK LM, 1992, THESIS U WASHINGTON KIRSHEN PH, 1993, POTENTIAL IMPACTS CL KOCIK JW, 1992, GUIDEBOOK EC ANAL ST LETTENMAIER D, 1995, ANAL CLIMATE VARIABI, P197 LETTENMAIER DP, 1993, NW ENV J, V8, P265 LETTENMAIER DP, 1995, WATER MANAGEMENT IMP, V1 LETTENMAIER DP, 1996, WATER MANAGEMENT IMP, V2 LETTENMAIER DP, 1996, WATER MANAGEMENT IMP, V3 LETTENMAIER DP, 1996, WATER MANAGEMENT IMP, V4 LETTENMAIER DP, 1996, WATER MANAGEMENT IMP, V5 MCCABE GJ, 1989, WATER RESOUR BULL, V25, P1231 PARKER RS, 1992, P WORKSH EFF GLOB CL, P399 SMITH JB, 1989, EPA2300589050 SMITH JB, 1989, EPA2300589051 STAKHIV E, 1992, CLIMATE CHANGE 1992, CH6 STAKHIV EZ, 1996, ADAPTATION CLIMATE C WOLOCK DM, 1993, WATER RESOUR BULL, V29, P475 NR 29 TC 7 J9 CLIMATIC CHANGE BP 203 EP 228 PY 1997 PD SEP VL 37 IS 1 GA XV604 UT ISI:A1997XV60400012 ER PT J AU Vago, K Dobo, E Singh, MK TI Predicting the biogeochemical phenomenon of drought and climate variability SO CEREAL RESEARCH COMMUNICATIONS LA English DT Article C1 Szent Istvan Univ, Dept Farm Management, Godollo, Hungary. Szent Istvan Univ, Inst Econ, Godollo, Hungary. Szent Istvan Univ, Fac Agr & Environm Sci, Godollo, Hungary. RP Vago, K, Szent Istvan Univ, Dept Farm Management, Godollo, Hungary. CR *NAT ASS SYNTH TEA, 2000, CLIM CHANG IMP US PO BALOGH J, 2002, ACTA BIOL SZEGEDIENS, V46, P221 CAMPBELL BD, 2000, AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON, V82, P39 CHANGNON SA, 1987, 16487 ILL STAT WAT S FEKETE G, 1988, VEGETATIO, V77, P33 GLEICK PH, 2000, WATER POTENTIAL CONS KADAR I, 2004, AGROKEMIA TALAJTAN, V53 MAROTI I, 1984, J PLANT PHYSIOL, V116, P1 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 MORVAY K, 2005, EKON CAS, V53, P3 NAGY Z, 1993, PHOTOSYNTHETICA, V28, P351 NAGY Z, 1995, J PLANT PHYSL, V145, P539 SASS L, 1996, PHOTOSYNTH RES, V48, P205 TANACS L, 2005, CEREAL RES COMMUN, V33 TUBA Z, 1994, J PLANT PHYSIOL, V144, P661 TUBA Z, 1996, J PLANT PHYSIOL, V148, P356 WATSON RT, 1998, REGIONAL IMPACTS CLI, V1, P1 WILHITE DA, 1987, PLANNING DROUGHT RED, P11 NR 18 TC 0 J9 CEREAL RES COMMUN BP 93 EP 96 PY 2006 VL 34 IS 1 GA 039XC UT ISI:000237340500024 ER PT J AU Metzger, MJ Leemans, R Schroter, D TI A multidisciplinary multi-scale framework for assessing vulnerabilities to global change SO INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF APPLIED EARTH OBSERVATION AND GEOINFORMATION LA English DT Article C1 Univ Wageningen & Res Ctr, Plant Prod Syst Grp, NL-6700 AK Wageningen, Netherlands. Univ Wageningen & Res Ctr, Environm Syst Anal Grp, NL-6700 AA Wageningen, Netherlands. Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res, Dept Global Change & Nat Syst, D-14412 Potsdam, Germany. RP Metzger, MJ, Univ Wageningen & Res Ctr, Plant Prod Syst Grp, POB 430, NL-6700 AK Wageningen, Netherlands. AB Terrestrial ecosystems provide a number of vital services for people and society, such as food, fibre, water resources, carbon sequestration, and recreation. The future capability of ecosystems to provide these services is determined by changes in socioeconomic factors, land use, atmospheric composition, and climate. Most impact assessments do not quantify the vulnerability of ecosystems and ecosystem services under such environmental change. They cannot answer important policy-relevant questions such as 'Which are the main regions or sectors that are most vulnerable to global change?' 'How do the vulnerabilities of two regions compare?' 'Which scenario is the least harmful for a sector?' This paper describes a new approach to vulnerability assessment developed by the Advanced Terrestrial Ecosystem Analysis and Modelling (ATEAM) project. Different ecosystem models, covering biodiversity, agriculture, forestry, hydrology, and carbon sequestration are fed with the same Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (lPCC) scenarios based on the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). Each model gives insights into specific ecosystems, as in traditional impact assessments. Moreover, by integrating the results in a vulnerability assessment, the policy-relevant questions listed above can also be addressed. A statistically derived European environmental stratification forms a key element in the vulnerability assessment. By linking it to other quantitative environmental stratifications, comparisons can be made using data from different assessments and spatial scales. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. CR 2003, MILLENIUM ECOSYSTEM *IM TEAM, 2001, IM 2 2 2MPL SRES SCE MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 *IPCC, 2001, CLIM CHANG 2001 MIT *IPCC, 2001, CLIM CHANG 2001 SCI *UNEP, 2002, GEO3 GLOB ENV OUTL R *WORLD CONS CONS M, 1992, GLOB BIOD STAT EARTH ALCAMO J, 2002, ENVIRON SCI POLICY, V5, P255 BAILEY RG, 1985, ENVIRON MANAGE, V9, P271 DAILY GC, 1997, NATURES SERVICS EKBOIR J, 2002, CIMMYT 2000 2001 WOR EWERT F, 2005, AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON, V107, P101 GALLOWAY JN, 2001, WATER AIR SOIL POL 1, V130, P17 KLEIN RJT, 2005, UNPUB GLOBAL ENV CHA KLIJN F, 1994, LANDSCAPE ECOL, V9, P89 LUERS AL, 2003, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V13, P255 METZGER M, 2003, LANDSCAPE, V20, P5 METZGER MJ, 2004, ATEAM VULNERABILITY METZGER MJ, 2005, GLOBAL ECOL BIOGEOGR MONSERUD RA, 1992, ECOL MODEL, V62, P275 MUCHER CA, 2003, 832 ALT REP NAKICENOVIC N, 2000, IPCC SPECIAL REPORT OBRIEN KL, CLIM CHANGE PARMESAN C, 2003, NATURE, V421, P37 POLSKY C, 2004, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V94, P549 ROOT TL, 2003, NATURE, V421, P57 ROUNSEVELL MDA, 2005, AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON, V107, P117 RUOSTEENOJA K, 2003, FINNISH ENV, V644 SCHROTER D, GLOBAL CHANGE SCHROTER D, 2003, 5 OP M HUM DIM GLOB SMITH JB, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, P913 STEFFEN W, 2001, IGBP, V4, P2 TURNER BL, 2003, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V100, P1074 VANDERMEIJDEN R, 1996, GORTERIA, V22, P1 VANITTERSUM MK, 2003, EUR J AGRON, V18, P201 VISSER H, 2004, MAP COMP KIT METHODS WATSON RT, 2000, LAND USE LAND USE CH YOHE GW, 2002, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V12, P25 NR 38 TC 4 J9 INT J APPL EARTH OBS GEOINF BP 253 EP 267 PY 2005 PD DEC VL 7 IS 4 GA 994NJ UT ISI:000234038200002 ER PT J AU Douben, KJ TI Characteristics of river floods and flooding: A global overview, 1985-2003 SO IRRIGATION AND DRAINAGE LA English DT Article C1 UNESCO, IHE, Inst Water Educ, NL-2601 DA Delft, Netherlands. RP Douben, KJ, UNESCO, IHE, Inst Water Educ, POB 3015, NL-2601 DA Delft, Netherlands. AB Since ancient times people have settled in flood-prone areas due to favourable geographic conditions which facilitate economic growth, such as accessibility (transportation) and food production (fertile land). This fact forces societies all over the world to protect valuable assets against flooding. Nevertheless flooding is still the most damaging of all natural disasters. One-third of the annual natural disasters and economic losses and more than half of all victims are flood related. Flood mitigation policies and measures have been implemented, enabling societies to increase their resilience to flood hazards. With increasing population densities, often associated with improved living standards and consequently higher values of property and infrastructure, flood defence receives more importance and the consequences of flooding become less acceptable. Trends in flood frequencies and flooding damage seem to be increasing, primarily due to a growing vulnerability arising from societal changes such as interference by occupation, developments, investments and land-use changes in flood-prone areas. The Asian continent was particularly affected by floods and flooding between 1985 and 2003. It recorded nearly half of all flooding events; together with Europe and North America it was confronted with the majority of flooding damage and it incurred nearly three-quarters of all casualties. Copyright (C) 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. CR *EO NEWS, 2004, EARTH OBSERVATOR JUN *OFDA CRED, 2005, EM DAT OFDA CRED INT *UN INT STRAT DIS, 2001, 5 UN INT STRAT DIS R *WORLD BANK, 2003, WORLD BANK ATL BRAKENRIDGE GR, 2004, ACTIVE ARCH LARGE FL COSGROVE WJ, 2000, WORLD WATER VISION M DOUBEN N, 2005, FLOODS DEFENCE MANAG, P11 DUTTA D, 2003, ICUS INCEDE NEWSLETT, V3, P1 KUNKEL KE, 1999, B AM METEOROL SOC, V80, P1077 LOSTER T, 1999, P EUR GLOB CHANG CAT MILLY PCD, 2002, NATURE, V415, P514 MUNICH R, 1997, FLOODING INSURANCE MUNICH R, 2000, WORLD NATURAL HAZARD MYERS MF, 1997, WORKSH SOC EC IMP WE PIELKE RA, 2000, J CLIMATE, V13, P3625 ROBINSON S, 2000, TIME EUROPE, V155 NR 16 TC 0 J9 IRRIG DRAIN BP S9 EP S21 PY 2006 PD JUL VL 55 GA 069QX UT ISI:000239464400003 ER PT J AU Parry, ML Rosenzweig, C Livermore, MTJ TI Climate change, and risk global food supply of hunger SO PHILOSOPHICAL TRANSACTIONS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY B-BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES LA English DT Article C1 UK Metrol Off, JHadley Ctr, Exeter EX1 3PB, Devon, England. Goddard Inst Space Studies, New York, NY 10025 USA. Univ E Anglia, Climat Res Unit, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. RP Parry, ML, UK Metrol Off, JHadley Ctr, Fitzroy Rd, Exeter EX1 3PB, Devon, England. AB This paper reports the results of a series of research projects which have aimed to evaluate the implications of climate change for food production and risk of hunger. There are three sets of results: (a) for IS92a (previously described as a 'business-as-usual' climate scenario); (b) for stabilization scenarios at 550 and 750 ppm and (c) for Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). The main conclusions are: (i) the region of greatest risk is Africa; (ii) stabilization at 750 ppm avoids some but not most of the risk, while stabilization at 550 ppm avoids most of the risk and (iii) the impact of climate change on risk of hunger is influenced greatly by pathways of development. For example, a SRES B2 development pathway is characterized by much lower levels of risk than A2; and this is largely explained by differing levels of income and technology not by differing amounts of climate forcing. CR *FAO, 1996, 6 WORLD FOOD SURV *FAO, 1999, STAT FOOD INS WORLD *INT BENCHM SIT NE, 1989, DEC SUPP SYST AGR TR *IPCC, 1997, STAB ATM GREENH GAS MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 *UN, 1989, WORLD POP PROSP 1988 ACOCK B, 1985, DIRECT EFFECTS INCRE, P33 ALLEN LH, 1987, GLOBAL BIOGEOCHEM CY, V1, P1 ARNELL NW, 2001, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V12, P201 CURE JD, 1985, DIRECT EFFECTS INCRE, P33 CURE JD, 1986, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V38, P127 FISCHER G, 1988, LINKED NATL MODELS T GODWIN D, 1989, USERS GUIDE CERES WH GODWIN D, 1993, USERS GUIDE CERES RI HANSEN J, 1983, MON WEATHER REV, V111, P609 HANSEN J, 1988, J GEOPHYS RES, V93, P9341 HULME M, 1999, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHA S, V9, S3 JOHNS TC, 2003, CLIM DYNAM, V20, P583 JONES CA, 1986, CERES MAIZE SIMULATI JONES JW, 1989, SOYGRO V5 42 SOYB CR KIMBALL BA, 1983, AGRON J, V75, P779 MANABE S, 1987, J ATMOS SCI, V44, P1211 MITCHELL JFB, 1995, NATURE, V376, P501 MITCHELL JFB, 2000, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V27, P2997 OTTERNACKE S, 1986, YM1500407 AGGRISTARS PARRY ML, 1999, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V9, P51 PARRY ML, 1999, NEW ASSESSMENT GLOBA, V9, S52 PARRY ML, 2004, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V14, P53 PEARSON R, 1989, PUBLIC RELATIONS THE, P118 RITCHIE JT, 1985, ARS WHEAT YIELD PROJ, P98 RITCHIE JT, 1989, USERS GUIDE CERES MA ROGERS HH, 1983, J ENVIRON QUAL, V12, P569 ROSENZWEIG C, 1993, CLIMATE CHANGE WORLD ROSENZWEIG C, 1994, IMPLICATIONS CLIMATE ROSENZWEIG C, 1994, NATURE, V367, P133 WILSON CA, 1987, J GEOPHYS RES, V92, P315 NR 36 TC 6 J9 PHIL TRANS ROY SOC B-BIOL SCI BP 2125 EP 2138 PY 2005 PD NOV 29 VL 360 IS 1463 GA 986CS UT ISI:000233427400012 ER PT J AU Finan, TJ West, CT Austin, D McGuire, T TI Processes of adaptation to climate variability: a case study from the US Southwest SO CLIMATE RESEARCH LA English DT Article C1 Univ Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85721 USA. RP Finan, TJ, Univ Arizona, Emil Haury Anthropol Bldg,Rm 221A,POB 210030, Tucson, AZ 85721 USA. AB The nature of adaptation to climate variability in the Southwest US is explored using the Middle San Pedro River Valley in southern Arizona as a case study. An integrated vulnerability assessment focuses on the dynamic interaction of natural climatic and hydrological systems with socio-economic systems, This approach reveals that residents in the study region do not perceive short-term or long-term vulnerability to climate variability or climate change. The paper uses an ethnographic field approach to examine the. technical and organizational factors that constitute the adaptation process and reduce vulnerability to climate in the valley, It concludes by discussing the potential dangers of ignoring climate in a rapidly growing, semi-arid environment. 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Part II: determinants operating at environmental and institutional level SO LANCET INFECTIOUS DISEASES LA English DT Review C1 Univ Liverpool, Liverpool Sch Trop Med, Liverpool L3 5QA, Merseyside, England. Liverpool Assoc Trop Hlth, Liverpool, Merseyside, England. RP Bates, L, Univ Liverpool, Liverpool Sch Trop Med, Liverpool L3 5QA, Merseyside, England. AB This review summarises a wide range of evidence about environmental and institutional factors that influence vulnerability to malaria, tuberculosis, and HIV infection. By combining this information with that obtained on factors operating at individual, household, and community level, we have identified potential common strategies for improving resilience to all three diseases simultaneously. These strategies depend on collaborations with non-health sectors and include progress in rapid access to funds, provision of education about disease transmission and management, reduction of the burden on carers (predominantly women), and improvement in the quality of health services. 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RP Mvungi, A, Univ Dar Es Salaam, Dept Sociol, POB 35043, Dar Es Salaam, Tanzania. AB Most of the Mwanga district is classified as semi-arid with a rainfall range of 300 and 600 mm. Rainfall patterns in the district are unpredictable and are subject to great fluctuations. Like other semi-arid areas, the district is characterized with land degradation, unreliable rainfall, repeated water shortage, periodic famine, overgrazing, dry land cultivation in the marginal areas and heavy competition for limited biomass between farmers and cattle. Vulnerability here is high due to unreliability of weather. The people of Mwanga are dependent on agriculture for their livelihood. However agriculture is difficult in the area due to inadequate rainfall. For a very long time the people have been dependent on irrigation agriculture to ensure food security. Of late the traditional irrigation system is on the decline threatening food security in the area. This paper examines the state and status of the irrigation canal system in Mwanga district with the view of recommending ways in which it can be improved. The study used participatory, survey and in-depth interviews to obtain both quantitative and qualitative data. The major findings are that social, political, environmental and demographic bases that supported the traditional irrigation system have changed drastically. As a corollary to this, the cultural and religious belief systems that supported and guided the traditional canal system management have been replaced by mistrust and corruption in water allocation. In addition the ownership and management system of the water resources that was vested in the initiator clans has changed and now water user groups own the canals/furrows but they do not own the water sources. This has rendered the control of the water sources difficult if not impossible. Currently the system is faced by a number of problems including shortage of water and poor management as demand for water increases and this has led to serious conflicts among and between crop producers and pastoralists over water use. Water users and leaders are also not knowledgeable of the policy guiding water use, ownership and management implying their non-involvement in the policy formulation process. The paper concludes that the traditional irrigation system in Mwanga district that has cushioned people from food insecurity for a long time is under serious threat and something urgently needs to be done. The paper recommends modernizing the irrigation infrastructure, instituting a system of governance that takes on board the interests of all the stakeholders, involving local people and their leaders in the policy formulation process not as an "excess luggage" but as an organic part of the process. The recommendations can only be effected as an organic part of the holistic approach to eradicate poverty. (c) 2005 Published by Elsevier Ltd. CR *UN REP TANZ, 2002, NAT WAT POL TANZ FUNGAMEZA D, 1992, STUDY INDIGENOUS LAN KIMAMBO IN, 1969, POLITICAL HIST PARE MASHAURI A, 1985, PUBLICATION UNESCO, V33, P221 MVUNGI AAK, 2004, SOCIAL EC ASPECTS TR OMARI CK, 1969, RELIG POPULATION LAN OMARI CK, 1990, ETHICS ENV DEV GLOBA, P167 OMARI CK, 1990, GOD WORKSHIP TRADITI YOSHIDA M, 1985, OPPORTUNITIES IRRIGA NR 9 TC 0 J9 PHYS CHEM EARTH BP 809 EP 817 PY 2005 VL 30 IS 11-16 GA 981DJ UT ISI:000233067200025 ER PT J AU Pittock, AB TI What we know and don't know about climate change: Reflections on the IPCC TAR SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Editorial Material C1 CSIRO Atmospher Res, Climat Impact Grp, Aspendale, Vic 3195, Australia. RP Pittock, AB, CSIRO Atmospher Res, Climat Impact Grp, MB 1, Aspendale, Vic 3195, Australia. 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RP Sutherst, RW, CSIRO Entomol, 120 Meiers Rd, Indooroopilly, Qld 4068, Australia. AB Global change research and decision-making are conducted in an environment where there are many stakeholders, numerous targets and few resources. This calls for global collaboration and sharing of information on a scale that has not been attempted before. It demands a parsimonious approach to research, with the aim of enabling robust decisions to be made with the minimum of new information. Our approach to these problems has been to develop generic analytical tools, which in turn are used to foster collaboration through joint model development, testing and application. This collaboration is achieved through a workshop and networking process to establish 'CLIMEX'- or 'DYMEX' -Modelling Networks, and to extend the information to the wider community using the world wide web (WWW) (http://www.ento.csiro.au/research/pestmgmt/IPMModellingNetwork/index.ht m). In this paper we outline key features of these modelling approaches and illustrate a 'hypothesis-driven' approach to climate-matching, using CLIMEX (http://www.ento.csiro.au/research/pestmgmt/climex/climex.htm) that contrasts with the usual, statistically based, pattern-matching of meteorological data without consideration of possible mechanisms that limit the geographical distribution. We illustrate the nature of a generic and modular simulation model built using DYMEX (http://www.ento. csiro.au/research/pestmgmt/dymex/dymexfr.htm), but emphasize the urgency for the scientific community to collect the data necessary to build reliable population models. We summarize results and conclusions from a global change workshop based on the use of both these software tools. They illustrate the advantages of the proposed approach as a means of building collaborative international research communities, which are able to avoid repetition by contributing their modules into a library of functions for sharing with other users. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. CR *IPCC, 1999, DAT DISTR CTR CD ROM ATZENI MG, 1994, MED VET ENTOMOL, V8, P281 BAKER RHA, 1996, ASPECTS APPL BIOL, V45, P323 BASHER RE, 1998, REGIONAL IMPACTS CLI, V2, P105 BOOTH TH, 1996, ACIAR P, V63 BOOTH TH, 1999, CROP SCI SPECIAL PUB, V27, P63 COVEY SR, 1990, 7 HABITS HIGHLY EFFE FITZPATRICK EA, 1970, AUSTR GRASSLANDS, P3 HOCH R, 1998, ECOL MODEL, V113, P3 INGRAM JSI, 1999, TERRESTRIAL BIOSPHER, P45 KRAKAUER T, 1968, HERPETOLOGICA, V24, P214 KRITICOS DJ, 2000, WEED RISK ASSESSMENT LANDAU S, 1998, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V89, P85 LUO Y, 1995, J BIOGEOGR, V22, P673 MAYWALD GF, 1997, P MODSIM 97, V3, P1115 MAYWALD GF, 1999, DYMEX PROFESSIONAL M NIX HA, 1969, AGRICULTURAL METEORO, V6, P321 OERKE EC, 1994, CROP PRODUCTION CROP PARRY ML, 1998, CLIMATE IMPACT ADAPT REYNOLDS JF, 1997, ECOL MODEL, V94, P7 SCHERM H, 1999, ENVIRON POLLUT, V107, P1 STEPHENS DJ, 1989, J ROYAL SOC W AUSTR, V71, P77 SUTHERST RW, 1985, AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON, V13, P281 SUTHERST RW, 1995, INSECTS CHANGING ENV, P59 SUTHERST RW, 1996, CONSERV BIOL, V10, P294 SUTHERST RW, 1996, GLOBAL CHANGE IMPACT SUTHERST RW, 1996, GREENHOUSE COPING CL, P281 SUTHERST RW, 1998, INT J PARASITOL, V28, P935 SUTHERST RW, 1998, PARASITOL TODAY, V14, P297 SUTHERST RW, 1998, PEST MANAGEMENT FUTU, V2, P57 SUTHERST RW, 1999, 7 CGTE ICSEA SUTHERST RW, 1999, CLIMEX PREDICTING EF SUTHERST RW, 2000, AUST J AGR RES, V51, P467 SUTHERST RW, 2000, INVASIVE SPECIES CHA WORNER SP, 1991, ENVIRON ENTOMOL, V20, P768 YONOW T, 1998, AUST J AGR RES, V49, P935 NR 36 TC 5 J9 AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON BP 303 EP 319 PY 2000 PD DEC VL 82 IS 1-3 GA 380ZW UT ISI:000165738700024 ER PT J AU Locantore, NW Tran, LT O'Neill, RV Mckinnis, PW Smith, ER O'Connell, M TI An overview of data integration methods for regional assessment SO ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING AND ASSESSMENT LA English DT Article C1 Waratah Corp, Durham, NC 27713 USA. Florida Atlantic Univ, Dept Geog & Geol, Boca Raton, FL 33431 USA. TN & Associates, Res Triangle Pk, NC 27709 USA. US EPA, Natl Exposure Res Lab, Res Triangle Pk, NC 27711 USA. RP Locantore, NW, Glaxo Smith Kline, Res Triangle Pk, NC 27709 USA. AB The U.S. Environmental Protections Agency's (U.S. EPA) Regional Vulnerability Assessment (ReVA) program has focused much of its research over the last five years on developing and evaluating integration methods for spatial data. An initial strategic priority was to use existing data from monitoring programs, model results, and other spatial data. Because most of these data were not collected with an intention of integrating into a regional assessment of conditions and vulnerabilities, issues exist that may preclude the use of some methods or require some sort of data preparation. Additionally, to Support Multi-criteria decision-making, methods need to be able to address a series of assessment questions that provide insights into where environmental risks are a priority. This paper provides an overview of twelve spatial integration methods that can be applied towards regional assessment, along with preliminary results as to how sensitive each method is to data issues that will likely be encountered with the use of existing data. CR DUBOIS DM, 1979, STATE ART ECOLOGICAL, P751 GATTO M, 1987, VEGETATIO, V69, P213 GENTILE JH, 1999, MULTIPLE STRESSORS E, P27 HARRIS HJ, 1994, ENVIRON MANAGE, V18, P295 JACKSON LE, 2004, ENVIRON MONIT ASSESS, V94, P231 JOBSON JD, 1992, APPL MULTIVARIATE DA, V2 JOHNSON AR, 1988, AQUATIC TOXICOLOGY H JONES KB, 1997, EPA600R97130 OFF RES KOHONEN T, 2001, SELF ORG MAPS LANDIS WG, 1997, HUM ECOL RISK ASSESS, V3, P287 MAHALANOBIS PC, 1936, P NATL I SCI INDIA, V12, P49 ONEILL R, 1999, J AQUAT ECOSYST STRE, V6, P181 PARKHURST BR, 1997, ASTM PUBLICATION, P148 RENCHER AC, 1995, METHODS MULTIVARIATE SAATY TL, 1980, ANAL HIERARCHY PROCE SMITH ER, 2002, EPA600R01008 OFF RES SUTER GW, 1993, ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSE TRAN L, 2002, FUZZY SET SYST, V130, P331 TRAN LT, 2002, ENVIRON MANAGE, V29, P845 TRAN LT, 2003, IN PRESS ENV MANAGE WICKHAM JD, 1999, ENVIRON MANAGE, V24, P553 NR 21 TC 2 J9 ENVIRON MONIT ASSESS BP 249 EP 261 PY 2004 PD JUN VL 94 IS 1-3 GA 775UE UT ISI:000189078400018 ER PT J AU Wilby, RL Perry, GLW TI Climate change, biodiversity and the urban environment: a critical review based on London, UK SO PROGRESS IN PHYSICAL GEOGRAPHY LA English DT Review C1 Environm Agcy, Trentside Off, Nottingham NG2 5FA, England. Univ Auckland, Sch Geog & Environm Sci, Auckland 1, New Zealand. RP Wilby, RL, Environm Agcy, Trentside Off, Scarrington Rd, Nottingham NG2 5FA, England. AB According to projections by the United Nations, 60% of the world's population will reside in urban areas by 2030. Studies of the ecology of cities and ecology in cities will therefore assume increasing relevance as urban communities seek to protect and/or enhance their ecological resources. Presently, the most serious threats to wildlife include the degradation and/or loss of habitats, the introduction and spread of problem species, water pollution, unsympathetic management, and the encroachment of inappropriate development. Climate change could add to these problems through competition from exotic species, the spread of disease and pests, increased summer drought stress for wetlands and woodland, and sea-level rise threatening rare coastal habitats. Earlier springs, longer frost-free seasons, and reduced snowfall could further affect the dates of egg-laying, as well as the emergence, first flowering and health of leafing or flowering plants. Small birds and naturalized species could thrive in the warmer winters associated with the combined effect of regional climate change and enhanced urban heat island. This article reviews the range of climate-related threats to biodiversity in the aquatic, intertidal and terrestrial habitats of urban areas. London is used as a case study to illustrate potential impacts, and to contend that 'green spaces' in cities could be used by planners to counter climate-related threats to biodiversity, as well as to improve flood control and air quality, and reduce urban heat island effects. 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2000, HYDROL PROCESS, V14, P3133 ZERBE S, 2003, LANDSCAPE URBAN PLAN, V62, P139 ZIERL B, 2002, ENVIRON POLLUT, V119, P55 NR 128 TC 0 J9 PROG PHYS GEOG BP 73 EP 98 PY 2006 PD FEB VL 30 IS 1 GA 021UV UT ISI:000236012300004 ER PT J AU Lemos, MC Agrawal, A TI Environmental governance SO ANNUAL REVIEW OF ENVIRONMENT AND RESOURCES LA English DT Review C1 Univ Michigan, Sch Nat Resources & Environm, Ann Arbor, MI 48109 USA. RP Lemos, MC, Univ Michigan, Sch Nat Resources & Environm, Ann Arbor, MI 48109 USA. AB This chapter reviews the literature relevant to environmental governance in four domains of scholarship: globalization, decentralization, market and individual incentives-based governance, and cross-scale governance. It argues that in view of the complexity and multiscalar character of many of the most pressing environmental problems, conventional debates focused on pure modes of governance-where state or market actors play the leading role-fall short of the capacity needed to address them. The review highlights emerging hybrid modes of governance across the state-market-community divisions: comanagement, public-private partnerships and social-private partnerships. It examines the significant promise they hold for coupled social and natural systems to recover from environmental degradation and change and explores some of the critical problems to which hybrid forms of environmental governance are also subject. 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Univ Colorado, Dept Geog, Boulder, CO 80309 USA. RP Kulakowski, D, WSL Swiss Fed Inst Snow & Avalanche Res, SLF, CH-7260 Davos, Switzerland. AB Natural disturbances have been among the most important driving factors in many ecosystems. Anthropogenic suppression of various disturbances has led to documented changes in ecosystem structure and function. Avalanche disturbances are one of the most important processes in many subalpine ecosystems world-wide and avalanche tracks provide unique habitat for various animal and plant species. Over the past decades the natural avalanche regime in the Alps has been disrupted by snow-supporting structures and other measures intended to prevent the occurrence of avalanches. We hypothesized that suppression of avalanche disturbances changes stand structure and composition and increases the relative importance of climatic stress (the degree to which climatic conditions limit the growth of vegetation). We analyzed stand structure and tree growth at high and low elevations in pairs of active avalanche tracks and tracks from which avalanches have been excluded in the Swiss Alps. Data on density and size of all tree species were collected in the field to analyze stand structure and increment core samples were collected to analyze tree growth. In tracks from which avalanches have been excluded, dbh (diameter at breast height), tree height, annual tree-ring widths, correlation of ring widths between trees, and correlation of ring-width indices with growing-season temperature were all greater than in active tracks, indicating an acceleration of ecosystem development and an increase in the relative importance of climatic stress. Within tracks from which avalanches have been excluded, increases in tree size and ring width were more pronounced at lower elevations while correlation of ring-width indices with growing-season temperature was more pronounced at higher elevations. The anthropogenic alteration of the natural avalanche regime is beginning to cause changes in the structure and function of some subalpine forests. The continued suppression of avalanches, while valuable for social reasons, is likely to eventually lead to the decline of certain ecological communities and may alter subsequent forest dynamics. In addition to changing forest structure, the suppression of avalanche disturbances is also changing the relative importance of the factors that are controlling ecosystem development by increasing the role of climatic stress in ecosystem development. We suggest that, in general, the suppression of disturbances predictably changes the relative importance of stress and competition along existing environmental gradients. Such changes represent a major alteration of ecosystem structure and function. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 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AB Starting with the nature of the serious, world-wide fishery crisis, this article shows that the recent vulnerability of marine ecosystems and resources, resulting from an obsolete paradigm of rationality and the control of nature (the seas), cannot be overcome by privatization of access to the resources through ITQs. Conversely, the ecosystems approach, open to a reevaluation of the historic contribution of the community-based types of management invented by coastal fishing cultures, particularly at risk within the EU, may contribute to the development of more responsible, more democratic governance, at least within those cultures. 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Queens Univ, Dept Geog, Kingston, ON K7L 3N6, Canada. RP Frayne, B, Queens Univ, SARC, 152 Albert St, Kingston, ON K7L 3N6, Canada. AB Based on recent research in Windhoek, this paper demonstrates that it is the well established and widespread social linkages that persist between rural and urban households that are central to the ability of poor urban households to survive. Whereas informal coping mechanisms that include borrowing, piecework and credit are pervasive in rural areas of Namibia, intra-urban sources of food are poorly developed, and outside of kinship circles, social networks within Windhoek are used sparingly, even in times of greatest need. In addition, urban agriculture plays a very limited role at present in urban food supply. The research demonstrates that urban households that are most vulnerable to hunger are those that have limited social connections to the rural areas, and must rely on intra-urban opportunities to get food (including borrowing, begging, piecework and crime). The most vulnerable are female-and male-headed households with no access to farm income and limited/irregular urban incomes. In contrast, those with active rural-urban linkages enjoy significant transfers of food from rural areas that offset hunger and, vulnerability in the urban context. Urban-rural reciprocity is therefore not only a one-way movement of people and resources from the urban to the rural areas, but also a transfer of food from rural to urban households. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 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Natl Off Climate Change & Ozone Layer Protect, Hanoi, Vietnam. RP Dang, HH, Hamburg Inst Int Econ, Neuer Jungfenstieg 21, D-20347 Hamburg, Germany. AB An emerging topic in current climate negotiations is the political momentum for recognising adaptation to climate change as a crucial part of a comprehensive climate policy. However, there are a number of arguments and doubts raised by politicians, negotiators and environmentalists alike with regard to the necessity of implementing adaptation in parallel with mitigation. The first aim of this article is to analyse possible contradictions and synergies between these two strategies and analyse the implications for developing countries and sustainable development targets. We then use Vietnam as a case study to demonstrate how to integrate mitigation and adaptation strategies that can provide additional benefits to the social welfare. This empirical analysis provides a basic understanding of how to address thorny questions in a nascent process of designing public climate policy in Vietnam. Lessons drawn from this research should be replicable in other developing countries having similar circumstances. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *AFDB ADB DFID DGI, 2002, 8 C PART UN FRAM CON *AS DEV BANK GLOB, 1998, UN DEV PROGR *CSIRO, 2002, CSIRO CLIM MOD OUTP *GOV AUSTR, 2001, NAT GREENH STRAT *GOV NETH, 2001, 3 NETH COMM CLIM CHA *GOV VIETN, 2001, 2 NAT STRAT ACT PLAN *GOV VIETN, 2002, OR STRAT ADV SUST DE *GOV VIETN, 2002, VIETN IN NAT COMM *GOV VIETN, 2003, NAT STRAT STUD CDM MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 *IPCC, 2001, CLIM CHANG 2001 SYNT *UNDP VIETN, 2002, DIS MAN UN *UNEP COLL CTR EN, 1998, MIT AD COST ASS CONC *UNEP IVM, 1998, HDB METH CLIM CHANG *UNEP, 2001, VULN IND CLIM CHANG *US EPA, 2002, US CLIM ACT REP *WORLD BANK, 2002, WORLD DEV IND ADGER WN, 2001, J INT DEV, V13, P921 BA NT, 2000, P NAT WORKSH PROP IN BURTON I, 2000, CLIMATE CHANGE DEV, P153 BURTON I, 2001, UNDP ADAPTATION POLI BURTON I, 2002, CLIM POLICY, V2, P145 DENTON F, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE SUSTA DEPLEDGE J, 2002, 29 IPCC ROYAL I INT FANKHAUSER S, 1998, 16 GLOB ENV FAC GRANICH S, 1993, GLOBAL WARMING VIETN HARIS J, 2002, VALUING ENV HUQ S, 2002, CLIM POLICY, V2, P243 KANE SM, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P75 KATES RW, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P5 KAUL L, 1999, GLOBAL PUBLIC GOODS MICHAELOWA A, 2001, 153 HWWA HAMB I INT MULLER B, 2002, COP8 SPECIAL ISSUE SMITH JB, 1997, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V7, P251 SMITH JB, 2002, AAAS ANN M BOST US F TIEP NX, 2001, P NAT WORKSH PROP IN TOL RSJ, 2000, MUCH DAMAGE WILL CLI VERHEYEN R, 2003, ENHANCING CAPACITY D WHEATEN E, 1999, MITIGATION ADAPTATIO, V4, P215 WILBANKS TJ, 2002, AAAS ANN M BOST US F NR 40 TC 0 J9 CLIM POLICY BP S81 EP S96 PY 2003 VL 3 GA 761BN UT ISI:000187879500007 ER PT J AU Iglesias, A Erda, L Rosenzweig, C TI Climate change in Asia: A review of the vulnerability and adaptation of crop production SO WATER AIR AND SOIL POLLUTION LA English DT Article C1 CHINESE ACAD AGR SCI,BEIJING 100081,PEOPLES R CHINA. NASA,GODDARD INST SPACE STUDIES,GREENBELT,MD. RP Iglesias, A, INIA,CIFOR,CARRETERA CORUNA KM 7,MADRID 28040,SPAIN. AB A number of studies have provided quantitative assessments of the potential climate change impacts on crop production in Asia. Estimates take into account (a) uncertainty in the level of climate change expected, using a range of climate change scenarios; (b) physiological effects of carbon dioxide on the crops; and (c) different adaptive responses. In all cases, the effects of climate change induced by increased atmospheric carbon dioxide depended on the counteracting effects among higher daily evapotranspiration rates, shortening of crop growth duration, and changes in precipitation patterns, as well as the effects of carbon dioxide on crop growth and water-use efficiency. Although results varied depending on the geographical locations of the regions tested, the production of rice (the main food crop in the region) generally did not benefit from climate change. In South and Southeast Asia, there is concern about how climate change may affect El Nino/Southern Oscillation events, since these play a key role in determining agricultural production. Furthermore, problems arising from variability of water availability and soil degradation are currently major challenges to agriculture in the region. These problems may be exacerbated in the future if global climate change projections are realized. Many studies have considered strategies for improving agricultural management, based on the optimization of crop management decisions. Climate change analyses could be further strengthened by economic studies that integrate the potential use of natural resources across sectors. 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