FN ISI Export Format VR 1.0 MT MC ER PT J AU Ramos-Mane, C TI Vulnerability and adaptation to climate change in Latin America - Foreword SO CLIMATE RESEARCH LA English DT Editorial Material C1 Comis Nacl Cambio Global, Montevideo 11100, Uruguay. RP Ramos-Mane, C, Comis Nacl Cambio Global, Ciudadela 1414,Piso 6, Montevideo 11100, Uruguay. NR 0 TC 0 J9 CLIMATE RES BP U6 EP U6 PY 1997 PD DEC 29 VL 9 IS 1-2 GA ZD200 UT ISI:000072661400001 ER PT J AU Williams, CA Albertson, JD TI Dynamical effects of the statistical structure of annual rainfall on dryland vegetation SO GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY LA English DT Article C1 Duke Univ, Nicholas Sch Environm & Earth Sci, Durham, NC 27708 USA. RP Williams, CA, Duke Univ, Nicholas Sch Environm & Earth Sci, Durham, NC 27708 USA. AB In this study, we extend a model of daily dryland dynamics by parameterizing a modified version of a minimalistic annual model to examine how the statistical structure of annual rainfall and grazing intensity interact to influence dryland vegetation. With a Monte Carlo approach, an ensemble outcome provides a statistical description of likely dryland vegetation dynamics responding to variations in rainfall structure and grazing intensity. Results suggest that increased rainfall variability decreases the average and increases the variability of grass cover leading to more frequent degradation of the grass resource. Vegetation of drier regions is found to be more sensitive to interannual variability in rainfall. Concentrating this variability into an organized periodic mode further decreases the mean and increases the variability of grass cover. Hence, a shift toward lower, more variable, or more inter-annually correlated annual rainfall will likely lead to a general decrease in the grass resource and increased dryland vulnerability to degradation. Higher grazing intensity or lower annual rainfall both lead to more frequent and longer duration degradation of the grass condition. We note an interesting interaction in the response of grass biomass to grazing intensity and rainfall variability, where increased rainfall variability leads to longer duration degradation for low grazing, but shorter periods of degradation for high grazing. Once grass reaches a degraded condition, we find that woody vegetation strongly suppresses recovery even if successive rainfall is high. Overall, these findings suggest that the projected increase in interannual rainfall variability will likely decrease grass cover and potentially lead to more frequent, longer lasting degradation of dryland vegetation, particularly if enhanced rainfall variability is concentrated in long period (e.g. decadal) modes. 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RP Warren, WA, Ecosocial Anal LLC, POB 9964, Moscow, ID 83843 USA. AB This article argues that hierarchy theory can be used as a conceptual bridge to facilitate analysis of socioecological systems (SES). An SES model is proposed based on a synthesis of structuration theory in sociology and hierarchy theory in ecology. The model is process rather than component based by relating institutional processes with ecological processes at multiple scales. The model also offers a means to conceptually integrate the divide between micro and macro approaches in the fields of environmental and natural resource (E&NR) sociology. 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A response to Epstein and McCarthy SO BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY LA English DT Editorial Material C1 Univ Colorado, CIRES, Boulder, CO 80309 USA. OECD, Environm Directorate, Paris, France. Vrije Univ Amsterdam, Inst Environm Studies, Fac Earth & Life Sci, NL-1081 HV Amsterdam, Netherlands. Univ Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada. Univ Illinois, Champaign, IL 61820 USA. NCAR, Environm & Societal Impacts Grp, Boulder, CO USA. Atmospher Policy Program, AMS, Washington, DC USA. Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res, Potsdam, Germany. Illinois State Water Survey, Ctr Atmospher Sci, Champaign, IL 61820 USA. Univ Colorado, Dept Sociol, Boulder, CO 80309 USA. Arizona State Univ, Tempe, AZ USA. Univ E Anglia, Sch Environm Sci, Tyndall Ctr Climate Change Res, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. Zeppelin Univ, Friedrichshafen, Germany. GKSS Forschungszentrum Geesthacht GmbH, Inst Coastal Res, Geesthacht, Germany. RP Pielke, RA, Univ Colorado, CIRES, Boulder, CO 80309 USA. 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RP Wilson, J, Univ Maine, Dept Forest Management, 5755 Nutting Hall, Orono, ME 04469 USA. AB Managed forested landscapes in the coastal Pacific Northwest follow a pattern of transition from dominance by naturally regenerated second growth to dominance by planted stands. This transition should have dramatic influence on many characteristics of these landscapes and the larger region, including susceptibility to wind damage. In this paper, inventory and spatial information from an example landscape are integrated using the Landscape Management System to produce alternative management scenarios and evaluate the projections using a wind damage vulnerability rating system. Planted Douglas-fir stands tend to develop higher height to diameter ratios in the dominant trees, are thinned more often, and tend to have more exposed windward edges; characteristics which increase susceptibility to wind damage. In this analysis, the increasing vulnerability factors are mostly compensated for by the reduced rotation lengths expected in the plantations. The pattern of transition in managed landscapes generates an associated pattern of vulnerability to wind damage. Homogeneously and heterogeneously aged landscapes have distinct patterns of vulnerability. These differences could be harnessed to enhance the particular goals associated with managing individual ownerships. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 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RP Ellis, F, Univ E Anglia, Sch Dev Studies, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. CR 2005, GUARDIAN 0620 *ETH MIN FIN EC DE, 2002, ETH SUST DEV POV RED *IMF WORLD BANK, 2005, HEAV IND POOR COUNTR *INT FOOD POL RES, 2005, FUT SMALL FARMS P RE *OECD, 2004, 2004 DEV COOP REP OE *WORLD BANK, 1981, ACC DEV SUB SAH AFR BARRETT C, RURAL LIVELIHOODS, P16 BRYCESON D, 1999, REV AFRICAN POLITICA, V26, P171 BRYCESON D, 2000, DISAPPEARING PEASANT BRYCESON D, 2002, WORLD DEV, V30 BRYCESON DF, 1996, WORLD DEV, V24, P97 BRYCESON DF, 1997, RES SERIES AFRICAN S, P3 CHAMBERS R, 1989, IDS B, V20, P1 COOKSEY B, 2005, RURAL LIVELIHOODS PO, P149 DERCON S, 2002, WORLD BANK RES OBSER, V17, P141 DERCON S, 2005, INSURANCE POVERTY UN DERCON S, 2006, P ANN BANK C DEV EC DEVEREUX S, 2002, END FAM 21 CENT C I DEWAAL A, 2003, LANCET, P1234 ELLIS F, 1983, J PEASANT STUD, V10, P214 ELLIS F, 2000, RURAL LIVELIHOODS DI ELLIS F, 2003, WORLD DEV, V31, P1367 ELLIS F, 2004, J DEV STUD, V40, P1 ELLIS, RURAL LIVELIHOODS, P183 ELLIS, 2001, FOOD POLICY, V26, P315 FRANCIS E, 2000, MAKING LIVING CHANGI HYDEN G, 1980, UJAMAA TANZANIA UNDE JAYNE TS, FUTURE SMALL FARMS JAYNE TS, 2003, FOOD POLICY, V28, P253 KRUEGER AO, 1991, POLITICAL EC AGR PRI, V3 NETTING R, 1993, SMALLHOLDERS HOUSHOL REARDON T, 1997, WORLD DEV, V25, P735 REARDON T, 2003, AM J AGR ECON, V85, P1140 SEN AK, 1981, POVERTY FAMINES ESSA, V1, P1 WEATHERSPOON DD, 2003, DEV POLICY REV, V21, P333 NR 35 TC 0 J9 NEW POLIT ECON BP 387 EP 397 PY 2006 PD SEP VL 11 IS 3 GA 090LC UT ISI:000240951800005 ER PT J AU Wright, EL Erickson, JD TI Incorporating catastrophes into integrated assessment: Science, impacts, and adaptation SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Review C1 US EPA, Natl Risk Management Res Lab, Res Triangle Pk, NC 27711 USA. Univ Vermont, Sch Nat Resources, Aiken Ctr 344, Burlington, VT 05405 USA. RP Wright, EL, US EPA, Natl Risk Management Res Lab, Mail Drop E-305-02, Res Triangle Pk, NC 27711 USA. AB Incorporating potential catastrophic consequences into integrated assessment models of climate change has been a top priority of policymakers and modelers alike. We review the current state of scientific understanding regarding three frequently mentioned geophysical catastrophes, with a view toward their implications for integrated assessment modeling. This review finds inadequacies in widespread model assumptions regarding the nature of catastrophes themselves and climate change impacts more generally. The possibility of greatly postponed consequences from near- and medium-term actions suggests that standard discounting practices are inappropriate for the analysis of climate catastrophe. Careful consideration of paleoclimate and geophysical modeling evidence regarding the possibility of changes in ocean circulation suggests a reframing of the source of climate change damages in economic models, placing changes in climate predictability, rather than gradual changes in mean values, at the focus of economic damage assessments. The implications of decreases in predictability for the modeling of adaptation are further discussed. 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RP Melloul, AJ, Waster Commiss, Hydrol Serv, POB 36118, IL-91360 Jerusalem, Israel. AB Groundwater resource management should be integrated with regional land-use planning. The objectives of such planning should respond to regional and long-term design needs, which can maximize human-life quality, achieve a balance between ecological and engineering approaches to land-use alteration, and lead to sustainable groundwater resources. Regional plans should be designed in harmony with natural amenities, restrictions of the environment, and water needs so as to provide adequate rural amenities to urban areas and adequate urban amenities to rural areas. Maximum efficiency of these remediation measures can be attained in urban areas only if hydrological barriers which aim to preserve fresh water resources from pollution are simultaneously emplaced with greenbelts which not only aim to promote ground vegetation and soil stability, but also reduce the input of potential pollutants. Similarly, in rural areas abstraction of fresh groundwater should also be paired with aquifer recharge. From this study it can be stated that only integrated hydrological, environmental, and land-use measures could offset the present malaise of inharmonious land-use, water resources, and socio-economic planning with balanced design needs, in order to achieve integrated urban/rural land-use for sustainable groundwater resources planning. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. CR 1995, DEV HYDROLOGICAL SIT, P199 1996, ISR ENV B, V19, P4 *US EPA, 1985, WA EPA SER, P163 ALBINET M, 1970, B BRGM, V4, P13 ALLER LT, 1985, EPA600285018 ANDERSEN LJ, 1989, ENVIRON GEOL WAT SCI, V13, P39 APPLEYARD S, 1995, HYDROGEOL J, V3, P65 BACHMAT Y, 1990, 690 ISR HYDR SERV, P20 BARBER C, 1996, HYDROGEOL J, V4, P6 BAUM EJ, 1994, GROUNDWATER CONTAMIN, P547 BEAR J, 1979, HYDRAULICS GROUNDWAT, P56 DAGAN G, 1984, ECOL STUD, V47, P271 DAN DH, 1976, 159 ISR MIN AGR DILLON P, 1998, P GROUNDWATER SUSTA, P39 GOLDENBERG LC, 1992, J HYDROL, V138, P53 GOLDENBERG LC, 1993, TRANSPORT POROUS MED, V13, P221 GVIRTZMAN H, 1986, J HYDROL, V87, P267 HOWARD K, 1996, HYDROGEOL J, V4, P64 KANAREK A, 1990, GROUNDWATER RECHARGE KANFI Y, 1989, POTENTIAL OIL POLLUT KANFI Y, 1995, PUMPING MONITORING W LERNER DN, 1997, GROUNDWATER URBAN EN, P41 LYON TL, 1952, NATURE PROPERTIES SO MCHARG IL, 1969, DESIGN NATURE MELLOUL A, 1991, BIOSPHERE J, V20, P12 MELLOUL AJ, 1994, IAHS PUB, V220, P95 MELLOUL AJ, 1994, ISRAEL J EARTH SCI, V43, P105 MELLOUL AJ, 1998, J ENVIRON MANAGE, V54, P131 MELLOUL AJ, 1999, WATER IRRIGATION J, V391, P30 MELLOUL AJ, 2000, HYDROLOG SCI J, V45, P147 MERCHANT JW, 1994, PHOTOGRAMM ENG REM S, V60, P1117 MEYBECK M, 1990, GLOBAL FRESH WATER Q MITCHELL DJ, 1989, J BEHAVIORAL DECISIO, V2, P25 MUSZKAT L, 1989, P 4 IT C ISR SOC EC, P471 NAVEHZ, 1997, ISR ENV B, V20, P21 ORNI E, 1996, ISRAEL PROGRAM SCI T PARFIT W, 1993, NATL GEOGR NOV PRETTY JN, 1996, OUR PLANET, V8, P19 ROBERTS D, 1992, NATL GEOGR, V182, P46 ROBINS N, 1994, HYDROGEOLOGIE, V3, P35 RONEN D, 1986, WATER RESOUR RES, V22, P1217 RUNDQUIST DC, 1991, STATEWIDE GROUNDWATE, P51 SCHULTZ GA, 1995, P BOULD S IASH, P31 SECUNDA S, 1909, COMPOSITE DRASTIC LA, P35 SOTORNIKOVA R, 1987, P INT C VULN SOIL GR, P471 TIMOTHY E, 1997, PROBLEMS PROCESSES M, V1, P577 TOLMACH Y, 1979, HYDROGEOLOGICAL ATLA, P70 VANDENBRINK C, 1993, C GROUNDW QUAL MAN T, P2 VANHOUTE E, 1998, P GROUNDWATER SUSTAI, P93 ZOLLER U, 1998, WATER RES, V32, P1779 NR 50 TC 0 J9 J CLEAN PROD BP 727 EP 736 PY 2003 VL 11 IS 7 GA 676HF UT ISI:000182744700003 ER PT J AU Grunzweig, JM Sparrow, SD Yakir, D Chapin, FS TI Impact of agricultural land-use change on carbon storage in boreal Alaska SO GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY LA English DT Article C1 Weizmann Inst Sci, Dept Environm Sci & Energy Res, IL-76100 Rehovot, Israel. Univ Alaska, Inst Arctic Biol, Fairbanks, AK 99775 USA. Univ Alaska, Agr & Forestry Expt Stn, Fairbanks, AK 99775 USA. RP Grunzweig, JM, Weizmann Inst Sci, Dept Environm Sci & Energy Res, IL-76100 Rehovot, Israel. AB Climate warming is most pronounced at high latitudes, which could result in the intensification of the extensively cultivated areas in the boreal zone and could further enhance rates of forest clearing in the coming decades. Using paired forest-field sampling and a chronosequence approach, we investigated the effect of conversion of boreal forest to agriculture on carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) dynamics in interior Alaska. Chronosequences showed large soil C losses during the first two decades following deforestation, with mean C stocks in agricultural soils being 44% or 8.3 kg m(-2) lower than C stocks in original forest soils. This suggests that soil C losses from land-use change in the boreal region may be greater than those in other biomes. Analyses of changes in stable C isotopes and in quality of soil organic matter showed that organic C was lost from soils by combustion of cleared forest material, decomposition of organic matter and possibly erosion. Chronosequences indicated an increase in C storage during later decades after forest clearing, with 60-year-old grassland showing net ecosystem C gain of 2.1 kg m(-2) over the original forest. This increase in C stock resulted probably from a combination of large C inputs from belowground biomass and low C losses due to a small original forest soil C stock and low tillage frequency. Reductions in soil N stocks caused by land-use change were smaller than reductions in C stocks (34% or 0.31 kg m(-2)), resulting in lower C/N ratios in field compared with forest mineral soils, despite the occasional incorporation of high-C forest-floor material into field soils. Carbon mineralization per unit of mineralized N was considerably higher in forests than in fields, which could indicate that decomposition rates are more sensitive in forest soils than in field soils to inorganic N addition (e.g. by increased N deposition from the atmosphere). If forest conversion to agriculture becomes more widespread in the boreal region, the resulting C losses (51% or 11.2 kg m(-2) at the ecosystem level in this study) will induce a positive feedback to climatic warming and additional land-use change. However, by selecting relatively C-poor soils and by implementing management practices that preserve C, losses of C from soils can be reduced. 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RP GORE, C, UNCTAD,DIV LEAST DEV COUNTRIES,GENEVA,SWITZERLAND. AB This article examines the conceptual basis and analytical deployment of Sen's entitlement analysis in ethics and economics, focusing on the rules of entitlement. Sen specifies the rules of entitlement in different ways in his work, ignores how legal rules work in practice and downplays the way in which socially enforced moral rules constrain and enable entitlement. The appropriateness of Sen's approach for the analysis of hunger and famine and for the philosophical arguments which Sen makes are assessed, and an alternative view of the rules of entitlement is suggested. This draws in particular on the literature on the moral economy of provisioning. 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RP Naess, LO, CICERO, POB 1129 Blindern, NO-0318 Oslo, Norway. AB The article examines the role institutions play in climate adaptation in Norway. Using examples from two municipalities in the context of institutional responses to floods, we find, first, that the institutional framework for flood management in Norway gives weak incentives for proactive local flood management. Second, when strong local political and economic interests coincide with national level willingness to pay and provide support, measures are often carried out rapidly at the expense of weaker environmental interests. Third, we find that new perspectives on flood management are more apparent at the national than the municipal level, as new perspectives are filtered by local power structures. The findings have important implications for vulnerability and adaptation to climate change in terms of policy options and the local level as the optimal level for adaptation. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *DSB, 2003, HVA LAERT VI FLOMM 1 *GOV NORW, 1995, 37 GOV NORW *GOV NORW, 1996, 42 GOV NORW *HEINZ CTR, 2002, HUM LINKS COAST DIS *MIN ENV MIN LOC G, 1997, T597 MIN ENV MIN LOC *NIVA, 1996, FLOMM OSTL VAR 1995 *NOU, 1996, TILT MOT FLOM *NVE, 1999, RETN AR SIKR FLOM OM AALL C, 2003, 32003 W NORW RES I ADGER WN, 2000, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V90, P738 ADGER WN, 2000, PROG HUM GEOG, V24, P347 BACHRACH P, 1962, AM POLIT SCI REV, V56, P947 BAKKER K, 1999, 3 SIRCH U OXF ENV CH BERKES F, 1998, LINKING SOCIAL ECOLO, V1, P1 BERKES F, 2002, DRAMA COMMONS BJORNAES T, 2001, LOKALE MILJO BAEREKR BLAIKIE PM, 1994, RISK NATURAL HAZARDS, V1, P1 BRAENNE J, 1995, BEFARING RADGIVNING BROWN JD, 2002, T I BRIT GEOGR, V27, P412 BURTON I, 2002, CLIM POLICY, V2, P145 CASH DW, 2000, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V10, P109 CUTTER SL, 1993, LIVING RISK CUTTER SL, 2003, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V93, P1 DAHL RA, 1961, WHO GOVERNS DEMOCRAC EIKENAES O, 2000, FLOMMEN KOMMER EIKENAES O, 2000, LEVE MED FLAUM FLAA P, 1985, INNFORING ORGANISASJ GLANTZ M, 1989, FORECASTING ANALOGY HINDAR K, 1996, EFFEKTER FLOMMEN 199 LISO KR, 2003, BUILD RES INF, V31, P200 LIVERMAN DM, 2002, CLIMATE RES, V21, P199 LUKES S, 1974, POWER RADICAL VIEW LUNDQUIST D, 1996, FLOMMEN 1995 GLOMM L MILLER KA, 1997, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V35, P157 MORROW BH, 1999, DISASTERS, V24, P1 NAESS LO, IN PRESS I ADAPTATIO NYE JS, 1987, INT ORGAN, V41, P371 OBRIEN KL, 2004, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V64, P193 OLSSON P, 2001, ECOSYSTEMS, V4, P85 OYGARDEN L, 1996, FLOMMEN 1995 SKADER QUARANTELLI EL, 1987, INT J MASS EMERGENCI, V5, P7 RATTSO J, 2003, FISCAL DECENTRALIZAT SKURDAL J, 2000, GLOMMA LAAGEN RIVER SMIT B, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, CH18 TOL RSJ, 2003, RISK ANAL, V23, P575 UNDERDAL A, 1998, EUR J INT RELAT, V4, P5 VAYDA AP, 1999, HUM ECOL, V27, P167 WILBANKS TJ, 1999, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V43, P601 WILBANKS TJ, 2002, INTEGRATED ASSESSMEN, V3, P100 YIN R, 1994, CASE STUDY RES DESIG YOHE GW, 2002, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V12, P25 YOUNG O, 1998, 9 IHDP NR 52 TC 6 J9 GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANGE BP 125 EP 138 PY 2005 PD JUL VL 15 IS 2 GA 931VR UT ISI:000229514100006 ER PT J AU Satterfield, TA Mertz, CK Slovic, P TI Discrimination, vulnerability, and justice in the face of risk SO RISK ANALYSIS LA English DT Article C1 Univ British Columbia, Fac Grad Studies, Inst Resources Environm & Sustainabil, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z3, Canada. Dec Res, Eugene, OR USA. RP Satterfield, TA, Univ British Columbia, Fac Grad Studies, Inst Resources Environm & Sustainabil, 2206 E Mall,Rm 472, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z3, Canada. AB Recent research finds that perceived risk is closely associated with race and gender. In surveys of the American public, a subset of white males stand out for their uniformly low perceptions of environmental health risks, while most nonwhite and nonmale respondents reveal higher perceived risk. Such findings have been attributed to the advantageous position of white males in American social life. This article explores the linked possibility that this demographic pattern is driven not simply by the social advantages or disadvantages embodied in race or gender, but by the subjective experience of vulnerability and by sociopolitical evaluations pertaining to environmental injustice. Indices of environmental (in)justice and social vulnerability were developed as part of a U.S. National Risk Survey (n = 1,192) in order to examine their effect on perceived risk. It was found that those who regarded themselves as vulnerable and supported belief statements consistent with the environmental justice thesis offered higher risk ratings across a range of hazards. Multivariate analysis indicates that our measures of vulnerability and environmental (in)justice predict perceived risk but do not account for all of the effects of race and gender. The article closes with a discussion of the implications of these findings for further work on vulnerability and risk, risk communication, and risk management practices generally. CR *AG TOX SUBST DIS, 1995, CAS STUD ENV MED LEA BECK U, 1992, RISK SOC NEW MODERNI BECK U, 1999, WORLD RISK SOC BELLINGER D, 1987, NEW ENGL J MED, V316, P1037 BORD RJ, 1997, SOCIAL SCI Q, V78, P831 BULLARD RD, 1990, DUMPING DIXIE RACE C CAPEK SM, 1993, SOC PROBL, V40, P5 DAVIDSON D, 1997, ENVIRON BEHAV, V28, P302 DEVELLIS RF, 1991, SCALE DEV THEORY APP FINUCANE ML, 2000, HEALTH RISK SOC, V2, P159 FLYNN J, 1994, RISK ANAL, V14, P1101 GRAHAM JD, 1999, RISK ANAL, V19, P171 GREENBERG MR, 1993, RISK ISSUES HLTH SAF, V235, P235 GREENBERG MR, 1995, RISK ANAL, V15, P503 GUSTAFSON PE, 1998, RISK ANAL, V18, P805 GUTTELING JM, 1993, SEX ROLES, V28, P433 JOHNSON BB, 2002, RISK ANAL, V22, P725 JONES EE, 1984, SOCIAL STIGMA PSYCHO JONES RE, 1998, SOC NATUR RESOUR, V11, P209 KALOF L, 2002, RACE GENDER CLASS, V9, P1 KRAUS N, 1992, RISK ANAL, V12, P215 LESTER J, 2001, ENV JUSTICE US MYTHS MOHAI P, 1998, PUBLIC OPIN QUART, V62, P475 NEEDLEMAN HL, 1990, NEW ENGL J MED, V322, P83 SATTERFIELD TA, 2001, RISK MEDIA STIGMA UN, P69 SEXTON K, 1993, TOXICOL IND HEALTH, V9, P679 SLOVIC P, 1979, ENVIRONMENT, V21, P14 SLOVIC P, 1979, ENVIRONMENT, V21, P36 SLOVIC P, 1987, SCIENCE, V236, P280 SLOVIC P, 1992, SOCIAL THEORIES RISK, P117 SLOVIC P, 1999, RISK ANAL, V19, P689 SROLE L, 1956, AM SOCIOL REV, V21, P709 STERN PC, 1993, ENVIRON BEHAV, V25, P322 SZASZ A, 1994, ECOPOPULISM TOXIC WA, V1 TAYLOR DE, 2000, AM BEHAV SCI, V43, P508 VAUGHAN E, 1995, RISK ANAL, V15, P169 WATTS MJ, 1993, PROG HUM GEOG, V17, P43 ZIMMERMAN R, 1993, RISK ANAL, V13, P649 NR 38 TC 0 J9 RISK ANAL BP 115 EP 129 PY 2004 PD FEB VL 24 IS 1 GA 779PH UT ISI:000189308900010 ER PT J AU Baethgen, WE TI Vulnerability of the agricultural sector of Latin America to climate change SO CLIMATE RESEARCH LA English DT Article C1 Int Fertilizer Dev Ctr Latin Amer, Montevideo, Uruguay. RP Baethgen, WE, Int Fertilizer Dev Ctr Latin Amer, Javier Barrios Amorin 870,Piso 3, Montevideo, Uruguay. AB The vulnerability of the agricultural sector in any region to future possible climate-change scenarios is determined to a great extent by the vulnerability of the sector to current climatic, economic and policy scenarios. Agricultural systems which are currently subject to extreme climatic interannual variability (drought, flood, storms, etc.) are likely to become even more vulnerable under the most commonly expected scenarios of climate change (i.e. increased temperatures, increased rainfall variability). Similarly, agricultural systems which are currently subject to drastic changes in economic and policy scenarios are also prone to become more vulnerable under expected climate-change conditions. The agricultural sector of Latin America has been subject to important variations in economical conditions and policies. These conditions have affected the structure of agricultural production, and resulted in a large reduction of the number of small farmers, who have migrated to poor metropolitan areas. Even for larger, commercial farmers, unstable and often inconsistent agricultural policies have increased the vulnerability of the sector. Additionally, large areas of Latin America are already affected by current interannual climatic variability related to the length of rainy seasons and the occurrence of extreme events (droughts, floods, etc.). The few studies conducted in the region to specifically assess the impact of climate change on agriculture have revealed expected reductions and increased variability in crop productivity. Similar results should be expected in the vast regions devoted to livestock production, since the systems are based on a fragile balance of nutrients, available water, stocking rates and pasture species. The characteristics of the current situation described in this article demonstrate the vulnerability of Latin American agriculture to climate change. Preparing the agricultural sector to mitigate the potential negative effects of climate change will require strong and consistent efforts in both the scientific and policy sectors of the region. CR *CEPAL, 1993, STAT YB LAT AM CAR *FAO, 1992, STAT FOOD AGR *IBSNAT, 1989, DEC SUPP SYST AGR TR *IPCC, 1990, CLIM CHANG IPCC SCI *WORLD BANK, 1986, WORLD DEV REP 1986 ACOCK B, 1985, DIRECT EFFECTS INCRE BAETHGEN WE, 1994, ACAPULCO, V9, P300 BAETHGEN WE, 1994, IMPLICATIONS CLIMATE BAETHGEN WE, 1995, ASA SPEC PUBL, V59, P207 CURE JD, 1985, DIRECT EFFECTS INCRE HANSEN J, 1983, MON WEATHER REV, V111, P609 HANSEN J, 1988, J GEOPHYS RES, V93, P9341 LIVERMAN DM, 1994, IMPLICATIONS CLIMATE MANABE S, 1987, J ATMOS SCI, V44, P1601 PARRY ML, 1988, IMPACT CLIMATIC VARI, V1 ROSENZWEIG C, 1994, IMPLICATIONS CLIMATE SALA OE, 1994, IMPLICATIONS CLIMATE SIQUEIRA OJ, 1994, IMPLICATIONS CLIMATE WIGGINS S, 1991, DEV WORLD AGR, P34 WILSON CA, 1987, J GEOPHYS RES-ATMOSP, V92, P13315 NR 20 TC 2 J9 CLIMATE RES BP 1 EP 7 PY 1997 PD DEC 29 VL 9 IS 1-2 GA ZD200 UT ISI:000072661400002 ER PT J AU Parasuraman, S Unnikrishnan, PV TI Disaster response in India: An overview SO INDIAN JOURNAL OF SOCIAL WORK LA English DT Article AB 'Act of God' or 'Act of Man', a mind boggling spectrum of disasters wreak havoc in the Indian subcontinent. Disasters are a shared reality spanning individuals, villages, blocks, districts, states, nations and even regions, and have to be responded to with a multi-pronged approach. About 211 million people are affected by 'natural' disasters every year. According,to the World Disasters Report, two-thirds of the people affected are from countries with low human development index (International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent, 2001). Experts note that the poorest are becoming more exposed to disaster risks. Political insensitivity, increasing poverty, climatic change and globalisation are the major factors that amplifies the vulnerability and impacts of disasters. Disasters set back the development process by decades. CR *EARTHSC, 1998, INT DISPL PEOPL GLOB *INT FED RED CROSS, 1998, WORLD DIS REP 1998 *INT FED RED CROSS, 1999, WORLD DIS REP 1999 *INT FED RED CROSS, 2001, WORLD DIS REP 2001 FERNANDES W, 1997, REHABILITATION LAW I HAQ M, 1997, HUMAN DEV S ASIA PARASURAMAN S, 2000, INDIA DISASTERS REPO NR 7 TC 0 J9 INDIAN J SOC WORK BP 151 EP 172 PY 2002 PD APR VL 63 IS 2 GA 770MK UT ISI:000188734400002 ER PT J AU Fath, BD Beek, MB TI Elucidating public perceptions of environmental behavior: a case study of Lake Lanier SO ENVIRONMENTAL MODELLING & SOFTWARE LA English DT Article C1 Towson State Univ, Dept Biol, Towson, MD 21252 USA. Univ Georgia, Warnell Sch Forest Resources, Athens, GA 30602 USA. RP Fath, BD, Towson State Univ, Dept Biol, Towson, MD 21252 USA. AB Participation of stakeholders in stewardship of the aquatic environment, including participation front members of the general public, has become much more widespread than was the case a decade or so ago. With this shift. front a former predominantly technocratic stance to something of a democratic stance on the style of management, it becomes important to elucidate public perceptions of environmental behavior. The paper examines this issue: from a rather specific perspective. where the role of time is significant; with a specific purpose in mind-for defining illustrative stakeholder aspirations for the future. whose plausibility is to Eke assessed against a computational model of lake behavior; and for a specific case study. Lake Lanier in the Chattahoochee watershed of Georgia, USA. Perturbations and variation in the behavior of the aquatic environment span many time frames from the very short-term response associated with storms, infrastructure failure, transient pollution events. and so on. to the much longer-term. for instance, the biogeochemical 'ageing' of a lake over manly decades and more. Our analysis is devoted to data front a survey of stakeholder imagination and perceptions of how the future state of Lake Lanier may evolve in the relatively short term (2-5 years) and in the long term, defined as 25+ years (the span of a generation). Overall, stakeholders are pessimistic and fear that things will be worse in the longer term. Guided largely by thinking on the perspectives of the social solidarities of Cultural Theory. extraction and analysis of sub-samples of the survey responses show that this outlook over the two frames of time is persistent, irrespective of what are, in principle, rather different 'global' attitudes towards the man-environment relationship. Of interest inter alia to the foresight generating procedure,. by which the 'reachability' of stakeholder-derived futures for the lake is to be assessed using a computational model of the relevant parts of the science base, is the question of whether the same small number of priorities for further research on lake behavior is robust in the face of the rich variety of aspirations for the future inevitable in a democratic community of stakeholders. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *LIMN TECH INC, 1998, DEV LINK WAT WAT QUA *OECD, 2002, HDB BIOD VAL GUID PO BECK MB, 2002, ENV FORESIGHT MODELS BECK MB, 2002, ENV FORESIGHT MODELS, P207 BECK MB, 2002, INTEGRATED ASSESSMEN, V3, P299 BECK MB, 2004, IN PRESS ENV MODELLI COWIE GM, 2004, IN PRESS ENV MODELLI DAKE K, 1991, J CROSS CULT PSYCHOL, V22, P61 DAKE K, 1992, J SOC ISSUES, V48, P21 DARIER E, 1999, J ENV POLICY PLANNIN, V1, P103 DEMARCHI B, 1998, ULYSSES VOYAGE ULYSS DOUGLAS M, 1982, RISK CULTURE ESSAY S DOUGLAS M, 2003, DEADALUS, V132, P98 GRENDSTAD G, 2000, RISK ANAL, V20, P27 HATCHER KJ, 1994, DIAGNOSTIC FEASIBILI HOFSTETTER P, 1998, PERSPECTIVES LIFE CY HOFSTETTER P, 2000, INT J LCA, V5, P161 HORNBERGER GM, 1980, WATER RES, V14, P29 JANSSEN MA, 1998, ECOL ECON, V26, P43 JANSSEN MA, 1999, MANAGING REILIENCE L KASEMIR B, HANDBOOK KATES RW, 2001, SCIENCE, V292, P641 KORFMACHER KS, 2001, ENVIRON MANAGE, V27, P161 KUNDELL J, 1998, DIAGNOSTIC FEASIBILI KUNDELL J, 1998, DIAGNOSTIC FEASIBLIT MAGUIRE LA, 2003, J WATER RES PL-ASCE, V129, P261 MARRIS C, 1996, 9607 CSERGE GEC MARRIS C, 1998, RISK ANAL, V18, P635 MOSTERT E, 2003, WATER POLICY, V5, P179 OSIDELE OO, 2001, THESIS U GEORGIA ATH OSIDELE OO, 2004, ECOL MODEL, V173, P129 OSIDELE OO, 2004, IN PRESS INTEGRATED PAHLWOSTL C, 2000, INTEGR ASSESS, V1, P267 PAHLWOSTL C, 2004, IN PRESS ENV MODELLI PALMER CGS, 1996, RISK ANAL, V16, P717 PEREIRA AG, 1999, INT J ENVIRON POLLUT, V11, P266 PEREIRA AG, 2001, VISIONS ADVENTURES F PFEIFER S, 2001, MANAGEMENT, V6, P89 PLEAU M, 2004, IN PRESS ENV MODELLI PRICE MF, 1997, GLOBAL ECOL BIOGEOGR, V6, P77 RAYNER S, 1992, SOCIAL THEORIES RISK REES W, 1996, ENVIRON IMPACT ASSES, V16, P223 SCHLUMPF C, 2001, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V51, P199 SPEAR RC, 1980, WATER RES, V14, P43 THOMPSON M, 1990, CULTURAL THEORY THOMPSON M, 1997, ENVIRON MODEL ASSESS, V2, P139 VANASSELT MBA, 1996, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V6, P121 VANROLLEGHEM PA, 2004, IN PRESS ENV MODELLI WEITZMAN ML, 1998, J ENVIRON ECON MANAG, V36, P201 WILDAVSKY A, 1990, DAEDALUS, V119, P41 YOUNG PC, 1978, P SIMSIG SIM C AUSTR, P24 NR 51 TC 4 J9 ENVIRON MODELL SOFTW BP 485 EP 498 PY 2005 PD APR VL 20 IS 4 GA 888UH UT ISI:000226399200009 ER PT J AU Turvey, R TI Vulnerability assessment of developing countries: The case of small-island developing states SO DEVELOPMENT POLICY REVIEW LA English DT Article C1 Nipissing Univ, Dept Geog & Geol, Fac Arts & Sci, N Bay, ON P1B 8L7, Canada. RP Turvey, R, Nipissing Univ, Dept Geog & Geol, Fac Arts & Sci, 100 Coll Dr,POB 5002, N Bay, ON P1B 8L7, Canada. AB This article puts forward a spatial perspective in framing the methodology for vulnerability assessment (VA) of developing countries, with special reference to small-island developing states (SIDS). Geographic vulnerability from a developing-world perspective is defined by the country's susceptibility to physical and human pressures, risks and hazards in temporal and spatial contexts. In constructing the composite vulnerability index (CVI), four core indicators are selected as sub-indices. The study confirms the vulnerability of SIDS based on four dimensions, namely, coastal index (G1), peripherality index (G2), urbanisation indicator (G3) and vulnerability to natural disasters (G4), and advocates consideration of place vulnerability and temporal distinctions when assessing the vulnerability of SIDS in particular. CR *COMM SECR, 1997, FUT SMALL STAT OV VU *EARTHW, 1999, ISL DIR *ECOSOC, 1999, REP DEV POL *ESCAP, 1995, STAT ENV REP AS PAC *UN ECOSOC COMM DE, 1999, ECOSOC S, V13 *UN ENV PROGR, 1999, PROBL SMALL ISL ENV *UN, 1994, GLOB C SUST DEV SMAL *UN, 1995, STAT POP *UN, 1997, ESCAP REP IND SUST D *UN, 1997, IND SUST DEV ISD PRO *UN, 1999, IND SUST DEV ISD PRO *UNCSD, 1998, REP SECR GEN DEV VUL *UNCTAD, 1994, HDB INT TRAD DEV STA *UNCTAD, 1995, HDB INT TRAD DEV STA *UNCTAD, 1998, LEAST DEV COUNTR 199 *UNCTAD, 1999, HDB INT TRAD DEV STA *UNCTAD, 2003, TRAD ENV REV *UNCTAD, 2004, SPEC TREATM SMALL IS *UNEP, 1994, EARTHW ISL DIR *WORLD BANK, 1999, WORLD DEV REP 1999 2 *WORLD FOOD PROGR, 1996, WFP VULN MAPP GUID *WORLD RES I, 1995, ENV IND SYST APPR ME BRIGUGLIO L, 1995, WORLD DEV, V23, P1615 BROOKFIELD HC, 1990, 13 MAB UNESCO CUTTER SL, 1996, PROG HUM GEOG, V20, P529 DAHL A, 1991, ISLAND DIRECTORY DOW KM, 1992, GEOFORUM, V23, P417 DOWNING TE, 1996, NATO ASI SERIES, V37 HESS A, 1990, SUSTAINABLE DEV ENV HEWITT K, 1971, RES PUBLICATION U TO, V6 KALY U, 1999, 275 SOPAC KAY R, 1993, VULNERABILITY ASSESS KNOX P, 2004, HUMAN GEOGRAPHY PLAC MCCLEAN RC, 1980, 13 MAB UNESCO NEWITT K, 1997, REGIONS RISK GEOGRAP NUNN P, 1994, OEANIC ISLANDS NURSE LA, 1998, REGIONAL IMPACTS CLI PERNETTA JC, 1992, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V2, P19 PERNETTA JC, 1992, OCEAN COAST MANAGE, V18, P113 ROBSON C, 1993, REAL WORLD RES RESOU TURNER I, 1996, APPL MATH MODEL, V20, P2 VELASQUEZ GT, 1999, CITIES ENV NEW APPRO WATSON RT, 1998, REGIONAL IMPACTS CLI, V1, P1 WATTS MJ, 1993, PROG HUM GEOG, V17, P43 WILKINSON CR, 1994, GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANG WISNER B, 1993, WORLD PAIN HUNGER GE NR 46 TC 0 J9 DEV POLICY REV BP 243 EP 264 PY 2007 PD MAR VL 25 IS 2 GA 137DQ UT ISI:000244273600005 ER PT J AU GARDNER, PD CORTNER, HJ WIDAMAN, K TI THE RISK PERCEPTIONS AND POLICY RESPONSE TOWARD WILDLAND FIRE HAZARDS BY URBAN HOME-OWNERS SO LANDSCAPE AND URBAN PLANNING LA English DT Article C1 UNIV ARIZONA,SCH RENEWABLE NAT RESOURCES,TUCSON,AZ 85721. UNIV CALIF RIVERSIDE,DEPT PSYCHOL,RIVERSIDE,CA 92521. RP GARDNER, PD, ROBERT HOTALING & ASSOCIATES,POB 304,HASLETT,MI 48840. CR *CA DEP FOR, 1980, FIR SAF GUID RES DEV *CA STAT, 1981, REC RED RISK WILDL F BAKER EJ, 1977, LAND USE MANAGEMENT BRIDGES J, 1983, THESIS U CALIFORNIA BURTON I, 1964, NAT RESOUR J, V3, P412 BURTON I, 1978, ENV HAZARD, V1, P1 CORTNER HJ, 1984, J FOREST, V82, P359 GARDNER PD, 1984, STUDY IMPACTS SEVERE HEWITT K, 1971, HAZARDOUSNESS PLACE HOUTS RH, 1971, WILDLAND FIRE PLANNI HULBERT J, 1972, AM FOR, V78, P24 KATES R, 1962, DEP GEOGRAPHY RES PA, V78 MEIER RL, 1979, PSW35 USDA FOR SERV MILETI RA, 1975, NATURAL HAZARD WARNI PETAK WJ, 1982, NATURAL HAZARD RISK RUMMEL RJ, 1970, APPLIED FACTOR ANAL WALSH BW, 1985, J FOR, V83, P397 WHITE GF, 1975, ASSESSMENT RES NATUR, V1, P1 NR 18 TC 6 J9 LANDSCAPE URBAN PLAN BP 163 EP 172 PY 1987 PD JUL VL 14 IS 2 GA J7754 UT ISI:A1987J775400007 ER PT J AU Darwish, T Atallah, T El Moujabber, M Khatib, N TI Salinity evolution and crop response to secondary soil salinity in two agro-climatic zones in Lebanon SO AGRICULTURAL WATER MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article C1 Natl Council Sci Res, Natl Ctr Remote Sensing, Beirut, Lebanon. Lebanese Univ, Fac Agr Sci, Kashk, Lebanon. Holy Spirit Univ, Beirut, Lebanon. RP Darwish, T, Natl Council Sci Res, Natl Ctr Remote Sensing, Beirut, Lebanon. AB This paper reviews the human impact on land degradation through the integrated effect of fertilization and irrigation on secondary salinization for the different cropping patterns and agroclimatic zones of Lebanon. Agricultural operations in the semiarid northern areas of Lebanon are characterized by intensive open field and low tunnel production, Soil degradation has occurred because of the combined effect of mismanaged crop rotation, poor fertilization and irrigation policies. Monoculture and other agricultural practices caused salt accumulation in the soil (9.0 ds/m). which was then deserted after several years of exploitation. Under and Mediterranean climate. these practices increased the vulnerability of an already fragile ecosystem. Because of water shortage, farmers relied on drip irrigation despite higher investment cost, although, the deterioration of soil quality was associated with the use of drip irrigation. The monitoring of soil quality indicated a Self-recovery after several years of fallowing or a switch to a barley-baled rotation. Instead of enhancing water use efficiency and properly managing the fertigation system, a replacement of drip by sprinklers is practiced. This is an indication that the introduction of modern irrigation systems is not sufficient. an improvement of agricultural practices and an upgrading of farmer's, skills are required. Along the subhumid coastal strip, the area of greenhouses has expanded to 50(X) ha. It is (lie most intensive cropping system in the country with a manure input reaching 60 t ha(-1) added every 2 years and fertilizer input exceeding 180(1 kg hit I of compound soluble and low-solubility fertilizers per season. Consequently, secondary soil salinity has reached 15-20 dS/m. A six-fold increase of soil salinity inside the greenhouses in comparison with the soil outside them was observed. A 5-year monitoring of the status of groundwater and soil on the Lebanese coast showed that the deterioration of soil quality is also linked to the mismanagement of fertilizer input and irrigation with low quality waters. Several zones are irrigated with well water which was subjected to seawater intrusion. In the southern coastal region, water salinity fluctuated around 3 dS/m. In regularly sampled wells, the chlorine content explained only 12% of the variation in total salinity of irrigation water (ECw). ECw explained 34% of soil salinity (ECe). Indeed, the level of ECw cannot justify the extent and seasonal fluctuation of ECe, which showed a peak of 50 dS/m. Replacing drip by sprinklers is not the proper solution in an area with severe shortage in fresh water. Instead, improving the management of water and nutrients inputs and increasing their use efficiency is a necessary step to conserve the limited natural resources in the country. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. CR 1995, W FERTILIZER HDB *FAO, 2000, UTFLEB016 FAO ABROL IP, 1988, FAO SOIL B, V39 ATALLAH T, 2000, CAH AGR, V9, P135 ATALLAH T, 2000, LEB SCI J, V1, P27 ATALLAH T, 2002, WATER BALANCE FERTIG, P41 AYERS RS, 1985, 29 FAO UN BARYOSEF B, 1999, ADV AGRON, V65, P1 DARWISH T, 1995, IMPLEMENTATION PERSP, P207 DARWISH T, 2002, P T 17 WORLD C SOIL DARWISH T, 2003, NUTR CYCL AGROECOSYS, V67, P1 EDMUNDS WM, 1998, ISOTOPE TECHNIQUES S, P503 ELKHATIB N, 1998, P INT S AR REG SOIL, P136 ELMOUJABBER M, 2002, ACTA HORTIC, V573, P195 HAMZE M, 1991, P EXP CONS FERT CHEM, P253 JOHNSTON A, 1997, P REG WORKSH INT POT, P11 KAFKAFI U, 1994, ISRAEL J PLANT SCI, V42, P301 KAHLOWN MA, 2003, AGR WATER MANAGE, V62, P127 KARAM F, 1998, ACTA HORTIC, V458, P89 LAMOUROUX M, 1968, B SERV CARTOGR GEOL, V20, P277 LEVY GJ, 1999, J ENVIRON QUAL, V28, P1658 NIMAH M, 1992, P NAT SEM WAT RES LE PAPADOPOULOS I, 1999, PLANT NUTR MANAGEMEN, P3 QADIR M, 2003, SCI TOTAL ENVIRON, V223, P1 RADER LF, 1943, SOIL SCI, V55, P201 RICHARDS LA, 1969, AGR HDB USDA, V60 RYAN J, 1996, SOIL PLANT ANAL MANU SALAME SJ, 1989, AGDPLEB86005 FAO SHAMMAS A, 1973, LEB506 IAEA SHAMMAS A, 1973, SERIE SCI MAGON AGR, V52 SOLH M, 1987, LEB SCI B, V3, P5 TARCHITZKY J, 1997, P REG WORKSH INT POT, P78 TINGWU L, 2003, WATER RES MANAGE, V6, P395 VERHEYE W, 1968, PEDOLOGIE, V18, P253 NR 34 TC 2 J9 AGR WATER MANAGE BP 152 EP 164 PY 2005 PD SEP 15 VL 78 IS 1-2 GA 966QV UT ISI:000232036800013 ER PT J AU Prudham, S TI Poisoning the well: neoliberalism and the contamination of municipal water in Walkerton, Ontario SO GEOFORUM LA English DT Article C1 Univ Toronto, Program Planning, Dept Geog, Toronto, ON M5S 3G3, Canada. Univ Toronto, Inst Environm Studies, Toronto, ON M5S 3G3, Canada. RP Prudham, S, Univ Toronto, Program Planning, Dept Geog, 100 St George St,Room 5028,Sidney Smith Hall, Toronto, ON M5S 3G3, Canada. AB In May of 2000, thousands of residents of the town of Walkerton, Ontario became ill from drinking municipal water contaminated by Eschcrichia coli and Campylobacter jejuni bacteria. Seven people died, while many suffered debilitating injuries. A highly unusual and risk prone local hydrological regime, coupled with manure spreading on farms near municipal wells, and lax oversight by municipal water utility officials, were quickly blamed by Ontario government figures, including then premier Mike Hart-is. However, the scandal surrounding Walkerton's tragedy and a subsequent public inquiry into the incident also implicated neoliberal reforms of environmental governance introduced by Harris's government subsequent to its election in 1995. This paper examines the Walkerton incident as an important example of a "normal accident" of neoliberalism, one that can be expected from neoliberal environmental regulatory reforms arising from systematic irresponsibility in environmental governance. This irresponsibility is promulgated by an overarching hostility to any regulatory interference with free markets, as well as specific regulatory gaps that produce environmental risks. The paper also serves as a case study of the extent to which neoliberalism is constituted by environmental governance reform, and conversely, how environmental governance reform is reconfigured as part of the emergent neoliberal mode of social regulation. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *COMM ENV COOP, 2002, TAK STOCK 1999 N AM *MIN ASS CAN, 2003, FACTS FIG 2002 *ONT MIN AGR FOOD, 2001, LIV POULTR STAT *STAT CAN, 2001, NUMB CATTL FARMS CLA, P1050 ADKIN LE, 1998, POLITICS SUSTAINABLE ALTVATER E, 1993, FUTURE MARKET ESSAY BEAULIEU MS, 2001, INTENSIVE LIVESTOCK BECK U, 1992, RISK SOC NEW MODERNI BECK U, 1999, WROLD RISK SOC BOYD W, 2001, TECHNOL CULT, V42, P631 BRENNER N, 1999, THEOR SOC, V28, P39 BRENNER N, 2002, ANTIPODE, V34, P349 BRIDGE G, 2000, ANTIPODE, V32, P10 BRIDGE G, 2000, GEOFORUM, V31, P237 CASTREE N, 1995, ANTIPODE, V27, P12 COLVILLE VR, 1982, CAN J EARTH SCI, V19, P962 COWELL DW, 1980, CAN J EARTH SCI, V17, P520 COWELL DW, 1983, J HYDROL, V61, P163 DAVIS M, 1998, ECOLOGY FEAR LOS ANG DAVIS M, 2001, LATE VICTORIAN HOLOC DOWIE M, 1995, LOSING GROUND AM ENV DREW D, 1999, KARST HYDROGEOLOGY H DRYZEK JS, 1997, POLITICS EARTH ENV D DRYZEK JS, 2000, DELIBERATIVE DEMOCRA FORD D, 1989, KARST GEOMORPHOLOGY GIBSONGRAHM JK, 1996, END CAPITALISM WE KN GIDDENS A, 1994, LEFT RIGHT FUTURE RA GOODMAN D, 1987, FARMING BIOTECHNOLOG GOODMAN D, 1991, REFASHIONING NATURE HARRISON K, 1996, PASSING BUCK FEDERAL HARRISON K, 2000, MANAGING ENV UNION I, P49 HARVEY D, 1989, GEOGR ANN B, V71, P3 HARVEY D, 1996, JUSTICE NATURE GEOGR HARVEY D, 2000, SPACES HOPE HESSING M, 1997, CANADIAN NATURAL RES JAMIESON RL, 1997, ANN REPORT OMBUDSMAN JESSOP B, 1990, NEW LEFT REV, P81 JESSOP B, 1994, POSTFORDISM READER, P251 KEIL R, 2002, ANTIPODE, V34, P578 KRAJNC A, 2000, CAN PUBLIC POL, V26, P111 LACLAU E, 1985, HEGEMONY SOCIALIST S MACLACHLAN I, 2001, KILL CHILL RESTRUCTU MILLER G, 2000, CHANGING PERSPECTIVE MILLER G, 2000, PROTECTION ONTARIOS OCONNOR DR, 2002, REPORT WALKERTON INQ OCONNOR J, 1988, CAPITALISM NATURE SO, V1, P11 OCONNOR J, 1998, ANTURAL CAUSES ESSAY PECK J, 1995, ENVIRON PLANN A, V27, P15 PECK J, 2001, PROG HUM GEOG, V25, P445 PECK J, 2002, ANTIPODE, V34, P380 PECK JA, 1992, GEOFORUM, V23, P347 PELLING M, 2001, SOCIAL NATURE THEORY, P170 PERROW C, 1999, NORMAL ACCIDENTS LIV POLANYI K, 1944, GREAT TRANSFORMATION REES J, 1998, NATURAL RESOURCES FO, V22, P95 SMITH N, 1984, UNEVEN DEV NATURE CA TICKELL A, 1995, ECON SOC, V24, P357 VIG NJ, 1984, ENV POLICY 1980S REA WATSON CN, 2001, FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT WATTS MJ, 1983, SILENT VIOLENCE FOOD WHITE GF, 1975, ASSESSMENT RES NATUR, V1, P1 WINSON A, 1993, INTIMATE COMMODITY F WORTHINGTON SRH, 2001, KARST HYDROGEOLOGY I NR 63 TC 0 J9 GEOFORUM BP 343 EP 359 PY 2004 PD MAY VL 35 IS 3 GA 820HJ UT ISI:000221377900007 ER PT J AU Rindorf, A Lewy, P TI Warm, windy winters drive cod north and homing of spawners keeps them there SO JOURNAL OF APPLIED ECOLOGY LA English DT Article C1 Danish Inst Fisheries REs, DK-2920 Charlottenlund, Denmark. RP Rindorf, A, Danish Inst Fisheries REs, DK-2920 Charlottenlund, Denmark. AB 1. Climatic and anthropogenic effects often interact leading to unexpected results. For example, climate may lead to a change in the spatial distribution of a fish stock and thereby its vulnerability to exploitation. The North Sea cod stock is currently under pressure from both environmental change and human exploitation. This stock has experienced a series of poor recruitments since the late 1990s and, concomitant with the decrease in abundance, the distribution of cod has changed. While it has been suggested that the change in distribution can be linked to increasing temperatures and fishing pressure, there is little evidence for this hypothesis. 2. Using winter and summer survey catches, we investigated whether a directional shift in the distribution of cod has taken place over the years 1983-2003. We then examined whether the change could be linked to climatic conditions, fishing mortality, stock size or limited directional movement of cod. Using the derived models, we investigated whether fishing has increased the sensitivity of the cod population to climate-induced distribution changes. 3. A series of winters characterized by high temperatures and southerly winds during the egg and larval phases of cod led to a northward shift in the distribution of juvenile North Sea cod the following year. A concomitant northern shift of mature fish around the time of spawning was linked directly to a tendency for northerly distributed juveniles to remain northerly throughout their life. This shift of the spawners further augmented that of the new recruits. 4. Although fishing mortality on a North Sea scale was not directly correlated with the displacement of any of the age groups, fishing has severely decreased the number of fish in older age groups. This increased the sensitivity of the distribution of the cod stock to climatic changes. 5. Synthesis and applications. The centre of gravity of North Sea cod has moved north as a result of the effect of a series of warm, windy winters on the distribution of recently settled cod. The shift was followed by a northwards shift in the distribution of older age groups. Unless a series of cold and calm years combined with a reduced mortality in the southern areas allows a southern spawning population to rebuild, the cod stock is unlikely to return to its previous area of distribution. Furthermore, protecting adult cod mainly in northern areas is unlikely to result in improved recruitment to the southern North Sea. CR 2004, PREL M EX COMM N SEA 2004, REPORT COMMISSION EU *ICES, 2005, COMM M 2005 ACFM 07 BEAUGRAND G, 2003, NATURE, V426, P661 BEDFORD BC, 1966, COMM M 1966G 9 INT C BEGG GA, 2002, MAR ECOL-PROG SER, V229, P245 BRANDER K, 2000, OCEANOL ACTA, V23, P485 BRANDER KM, 1994, ICES J MAR SCI, V51, P71 CLARK DS, 1991, CAN J ZOOL, V69, P1302 COOK RM, 1999, J NW ATLANTIC FISHER, V25, P91 CUSHING DH, 1976, ADV MAR BIOL, V14, P1 DAAN N, 1978, RAPPORTS PROCES VERB, V172, P39 DAAN N, 1990, NETH J SEA RES, V26, P343 HULME PE, 2005, J APPL ECOL, V42, P784 HUTCHINSON WF, 2001, MAR ECOL-PROG SER, V223, P251 IVERSEN SA, 1984, FLODEVIGEN RAPP, V1, P49 JENNINGS S, 2001, MARINE FISHERIES ECO KING D, 2005, J APPL ECOL, V42, P779 MACCALL AD, 1990, DYNAMIC GEOGRAPHY MA MACKENZIE BR, 2000, LIMNOL OCEANOGR, V45, P1 MACKENZIE BR, 2004, ECOLOGY, V85, P784 MYERS RA, 1989, COMM M 1989D 15 INT OBRIEN CM, 2000, NATURE, V404, P142 PERRY AL, 2005, SCIENCE, V308, P1912 PERRY RI, 1994, CAN J FISH AQUAT SCI, V51, P589 POLOCZANSKA ES, 2004, ICES J MAR SCI, V61, P788 PORTNER HO, 2001, CONT SHELF RES, V21, P1975 PRANDLE D, 1984, PHILOS T ROY SOC A, V310, P407 ROBICHAUD D, 2001, CAN J FISH AQUAT SCI, V58, P2325 RUZZANTE DE, 1996, CAN J FISH AQUAT SCI, V53, P2695 RUZZANTE DE, 2001, CONSERV GENET, V2, P257 SUNDBY S, 1994, ICES MAR SCI S, V198, P393 SWAIN DP, 1995, MAR ECOL-PROG SER, V116, P11 SWAIN DP, 1999, FISH OCEANOGR, V8, P1 TAGGART CT, 1997, NAFO SCI COUNC STUD, V29, P51 TURRELL WR, 1992, ICES J MAR SCI, V49, P107 WATSON A, 1977, J CONSEIL INT EXPLOR, V37, P310 NR 37 TC 1 J9 J APPL ECOL BP 445 EP 453 PY 2006 PD JUN VL 43 IS 3 GA 042GT UT ISI:000237516600007 ER PT J AU YARNAL, B TI AGRICULTURAL DECOLLECTIVIZATION AND VULNERABILITY TO ENVIRONMENTAL-CHANGE - A BULGARIAN CASE-STUDY SO GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS LA English DT Article RP YARNAL, B, PENN STATE UNIV,CTR EARTH SYST SCI,302 WALKER BLDG,UNIVERSITY PK,PA 16802. AB Is the transformation from Communism to a more market-based society making Bulgarians - and particularly farmers more vulnerable to environmental change? Intensive, open-ended interviews suggest that government policies, new privatization laws and the nation's economic crisis are decreasing farmers' flexibility and removing social safety nets. Yet generalizations are difficult because implementation of the decollectivization process is different at each cooperative farm, thus creating varying levels of vulnerability. Easing the crisis is the tradition of family-based, small-plot gardening, which appears to ensure sufficient food for most Bulgarians. CR 1989, GREEN BOOK 1991, BULGARIA CRISIS T MA, V2 1992, GLOBAL ENV CHANGE UN 1992, STATISTICAL REFERENC 1993, 168 HOURS BBN, V3, P5 BARTOS M, 1987, SCOPE, V32, P319 BEGG RB, 1993, 2ND S IMP POL EC RES BROOKS K, 1991, J ECON PERSPECT, V5, P149 BROWN JF, 1970, BULGARIA COMMUNIST R CARTER FW, 1993, ENV PROBLEMS E EUROP DEBARDELEBEN J, 1991, BREATH FREE E EUROPE DOWNING TE, 1991, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V1, P365 FRENCH HF, 1990, GREEN REVOLUTIONS EN GREEN F, 1989, RESTRUCTING UK EC HABERMAS J, 1975, LEGITIMATION CRISIS JACOBSON, 1991, FRAMEWORK RES HUMAN KOLKO J, 1988, RESTRUCTURING WORLD LIVERMAN DM, 1990, UNDERSTANDING GLOBAL, V1, P27 MCINTYRE RJ, 1988, BULGARI POLITICS EC MORREN G, 1983, INTERPRETATIONS CALA, P284 OCONNOR JF, 1973, FISCAL CRISIS STATE OCONNOR JF, 1984, ACCUMULATION CRISIS PEET R, 1987, INT CAPITALISM IND R PEET R, 1989, POLITICAL EC PERSPEC PICKLES J, IN PRESS PROFESSIONA SAYER A, 1985, POLITICS METHOD CONT, P147 SCHOENBERGER E, 1991, PROF GEOGR, V43, P180 SLAVOV N, 1993, DROUGHT NETWORK NEWS, V5, P12 SMITH K, 1992, ENV HAZARDS ASSESSIN STIGLIANI W, 1993, NEW SCI 1211, P38 TIMMERMAN P, 1981, ENV MONOGRAPH, V1, P1 TURNER BL, 1990, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V1, P14 YARNAL B, 1994, DISASTERS, V18, P95 YARNAL B, 1994, LAND USE POLICY, V11, P67 NR 34 TC 3 J9 GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANGE BP 229 EP 243 PY 1994 PD SEP VL 4 IS 3 GA PE720 UT ISI:A1994PE72000004 ER PT J AU Terry, A Ryder, M TI Coping with change: The transition from subsistence orientated rain-fed agriculture to commercial irrigated agriculture SO GEOGRAPHY LA English DT Article C1 Univ W England, Sch Geog & Environm Management, Fac Built Environm, Bristol BS16 1QY, Avon, England. RP Terry, A, Univ W England, Sch Geog & Environm Management, Fac Built Environm, Coldharbour Lane, Bristol BS16 1QY, Avon, England. AB The adoption of irrigated commercial sugarcane farming by Swazi smallholders has bad a mixed effect on food security. A major factor is the differing managerial and financial skills of the individual farmers associations. The long-run prospects are potentially problematic due to a decline in sugar prices, particularly in the EU which, at present, is Swaziland's main overseas market. CR *DFID, 1999, SUST LIV GUID SHEETS *FAO, 1996, SYNTH TECHN BACKGR D *GFA, 1998, FEAS STUD LOW US BAS *GOV SWAZ, 1997, KINGD SWAZ NAT DEV S *WORLD BANK, 2003, WB SWAZ GLANC ATKINS S, 1995, Q J INT AGR, V34, P224 ATKINS SL, 1999, PEOPLE EMPLOYMENT PO BERNSTEIN H, 1992, RURAL LIVELIHOODS CR, P13 BERNSTEIN H, 1994, CAPITALISM DEV, P40 BRATTON M, 1992, RURAL LIVELIHOODS CR, P213 CARNEY D, 1998, SUSTAINABLE RURAL LI CARNEY D, 1999, OVERSEAS DEV I POVER, V2 CHAMBERS R, 1997, WHO REALITY COUNTS P CLAY E, 1997, FOOD SECURITY STATUS CORBETT J, 1988, WORLD DEV, V16, P1099 DAVIES S, 1996, ADAPTABLE LIVELIHOOD DEVEREUX S, 2001, FOOD SECURITY SUB SA FRANKENBURGER TR, 1992, HOUSEHOLD FOOD SECUR, P74 FUNNELL DC, 1991, SHADOW APARTHEID AGR GEIER G, 1995, FOOD SECURITY POLICY GEORGE S, 1976, OTHER HALF DIES REAL GLOVER DJ, 1984, WORLD DEV, V12, P1143 GLOVER DJ, 1990, SMALL FARMERS BIG BU GOODMAN D, 1997, GLOBALISING FOOD AGR GOZNELL J, 2004, FOOD POVERTY CONSUMP, V38, P15 GRIGG D, 1995, INTRO AGR GEOGRAPHY HANSON S, 1992, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V82, P569 HARRIS FMA, 2003, AMBIO, V32, P24 KEY N, 1999, WORLD DEV, V27, P381 LAPPE F, 1986, WORLD HUNGER 12 MYTH LEACH M, 1997, 359 IDS LITTLE P, 1994, LIVING CONTRACT CONT LONGHURST R, 1988, IDS B, V19, P2 LOW A, 1986, AGR DEV S AFRICA FAR MAXWELL S, 1988, NATL FOOD SECURITY P MAXWELL S, 1989, WORLD DEV, V17, P1677 MAXWELL S, 1996, FOOD POLICY, V21, P155 PACEY A, 1985, AGR DEV NUTR PAYNE P, 1994, FOOD POLICY REV, V2 PORTER G, 1997, GEOGRAPHY 1, V82, P38 POTTIER J, 1999, ANTHR FOOD SOCIAL DY REARDON T, 1989, SEASONAL VARIABILITY REDCLIFT M, 2002, COMPANION DEV STUDIE, P275 SAPSFORD D, 2001, COMPANION DEV STUDIE, P70 SCOTT J, 1976, MORAL EC PEASANT SEN AK, 1981, POVERTY FAMINES ESSA, V1, P1 STRINGFELLOW R, 1996, INVESTIGATION ORG FE SWIFT J, 1989, IDS B, V20, P8 SWIFT J, 2001, FOOD SECURITY SUB SA, P67 TERRY A, 2001, S AFRICAN GEOGRAPHIC, V83, P18 TERRY AK, 1997, SINGAPORE J TROP GEO, V18, P196 TIELEMAN H, 1988, 33 AFR STUD CTR LEID VONBRAUN J, 1993, DATA NEEDS FOOD POLI WATTS M, 1983, SILENT VIOLENCE FOOD WATTS M, 1990, FOOD QUESTION PROFIT, P149 WHITE B, 1997, J PEASANT STUD, V24, P110 NR 56 TC 0 J9 GEOGRAPHY BP 138 EP 150 PY 2005 PD SUM VL 90 GA 936VA UT ISI:000229882300004 ER PT J AU Schmidt-Thome, P Greiving, S Kallio, H Fleischhauer, M Jarva, J TI Economic risk maps of floods and earthquakes for European regions SO QUATERNARY INTERNATIONAL LA English DT Article C1 Geol Survey Finland, FIN-02150 Espoo, Finland. Univ Dortmund, Inst Spatial Planning, IRPUD, D-44227 Dortmund, Germany. RP Schmidt-Thome, P, Geol Survey Finland, Betonimiehenkuja 4, FIN-02150 Espoo, Finland. AB Europe experiences different natural hazards and subsequent risks that have various effects on the development of its regions. The spatial significance of hazards can be expressed as an economic risk when combining hazard potential with vulnerability data. Two examples of European natural hazard maps on floods and earthquakes, as well as the resulting risk profiles of regions (combination of hazard potential and vulnerability) give a first impression on the spatial characters of hazards in Europe and their potential impact on further spatial development. The economic risk maps enable a view on the spatial dimension of the economic damage potential of flood and earthquakes, pointing out comparable situations across Europe with the aim to facilitate targeted responses and policies. The spatial character of a hazard is either defined by spatial effects that might occur in case of a disaster or by the possibility of spatial planning responses. The integration of the economic vulnerability of a region (regional GDP per capita, population density) leads to a classification of areas according to their economic risk or damage potential towards hazards. These synthetic risk profiles are presented as risk maps of European regions in administrative boundaries. Obtained information can be of interest for spatial planning and development strategies, e.g. economic risk profile of regions can influence the targets of investments and could thus be an important background for structural funding. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd and INQUA. All rights reserved. CR *UNISDR, 2002, LIV RISK GLOB REV DI BACHFISCHER R, 1978, THESIS TU MUNCHEN MU BLAIKIE PM, 1994, RISK NATURAL HAZARDS, V1, P1 BURBY RJ, 1998, COOPERATING NATURE C LUBKOWSKI ZA, 1998, P ICE CIV ENG, V144, P55 RADU C, 1964, B SEISMOLOGICAL SOC, V54, P79 SCHMIDTTHOME P, 2006, NATURAL TECHNOLOGICA SCHMOLDT DL, 2001, MANAG FOR ECOSYST, V3, P1 SCHOLLES F, 1997, ABSCHATZEN EINSCHATZ, V13 TOBIN GA, 1997, NATURAL HAZARDS EXPL WESSEL J, 1995, US IT RES WORKSH HYD NR 11 TC 0 J9 QUATERN INT BP 103 EP 112 PY 2006 PD JUN VL 150 GA 054VC UT ISI:000238405700011 ER PT J AU Moreno, AR TI Climate change and human health in Latin America: drivers, effects, and policies SO REGIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 US Mexico Fdn Sci, Mexico City 03100, DF, Mexico. RP Moreno, AR, US Mexico Fdn Sci, San Francisco 1626 Desp 205,Col Valle, Mexico City 03100, DF, Mexico. AB Many people would be increasingly affected by living under critical conditions in Latin America if, as expected, global warming aggravates disease and pest transmission processes. Heat waves and air pollution would increase heat-related diseases and illness episodes in large cities. Fire smoke has been associated with irritation of the throat, lung and eyes, and respiratory problems. Climate extreme increases associated with climate change would cause physical damage, population displacement, and adverse effects on food production, freshwater availability and quality. It would also increase the risks of infectious and vector-borne diseases. Climate change impacts the geographical range, seasonality, and the incidence rate of vector-borne diseases. such as malaria. Climate-related ecological changes may expand cholera transmission, particularly populations in low-laying tropical coastal areas. El Nino conditions may affect the incidence of infectious diseases, such as malaria. Ocean warming would increase temperature-sensitive toxins produced by phytoplankton, which could cause more frequent contamination of seafood. A clearer understanding on the current role of climate change in disease patterns will be able to improve forecasts of potential future impacts of projected climate change and support action to reduce such impacts. CR *AID, 1998, 9 AID BUR HUM RESP O *IPCC, 2001, CONTR WORK GROUP 1 3, P81 *IPCC, 2001, CONTR WORK GROUP 2 3, P1032 *OPS, 1998, CE12210 OPS *OPS, 1999, OPAHCPHCTAIEPI99 OPS *PAHO, 1999, CONC REC M EV PREP R *WHO, 1998, WHO EURO INT WORKSH *WHO, 2001, MON HLTH IMP CLIM CH *WMO, 2000, 1997 1998 NINO EVENT BLAIKIE PM, 1994, RISK NATURAL HAZARDS, V1, P1 BOUMA MJ, 1996, TROP MED INT HEALTH, V1, P86 CALDERON C, 1995, GRANA, V34, P160 CANZIANI OF, 1998, REGIONAL IMPACTS CLI, V2, P187 CARCAVALLO RU, 1996, J EPIDEMIOLOGY, V6, S153 CATALA S, 1991, MED VET ENTOMOL, V5, P325 CATALA SS, 1992, AM J TROP MED HYG, V47, P20 CHAKRABORTY S, 1998, AUSTRALAS PLANT PATH, V27, P15 CHECKLEY W, 2000, LANCET, V355, P442 COLWELL RR, 1994, ANN NY ACAD SCI, V740, P44 CONFALONIERI U, 2003, TERRA LIVRE, V1, P193 CONFALONIERI UEC, 2000, CLIMATE VARIABILITY DAILY GC, 1997, NATURES SERVICES SOC DECASAS SIC, 1995, SOC SCI MED, V40, P1437 DUCLOS P, 1990, ARCH ENVIRON HEALTH, V45, P53 EMBERLIN J, 1994, ALLERGY, V49, P15 EPSTEIN PR, 1997, CLIMATE ECOLOGY HUMA EPSTEIN PR, 2000, SCI AM, V283, P50 FAGAN B, 1999, FLOODS FAMINES EMPER GAWITH MJ, 1999, CLIMATE CHANGE RISK, P279 GITHEKO AK, 2000, B WORLD HEALTH ORGAN, V78, P1136 GRASSES JP, 2000, EFECTOS ILUVIAS CAID GUBLER DJ, 1998, CLIN MICROBIOL REV, V11, P480 GUERRANT RL, 1996, EDGE DEV HLTH CRISIS, P91 HALES S, 2002, LANCET, V360, P830 KOVATS RS, 1999, WHOSDEPHE994 KOVATS RS, 2000, B WORLD HEALTH ORGAN, V78, P1127 KOVATS RS, 2000, CLIMATE VECTOR BORNE KOVATS RS, 2001, PHILOS T ROY SOC B, V356, P1057 KOVATS RS, 2005, RISK ANAL, V25, P1409 LOBITZ B, 2000, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V97, P1438 MARCONDES CB, 1997, MEM I OSWALDO CRUZ, V92, P317 MATA LJ, 2001, IPCC 2001 CLIMATE CH, P693 MCMICHAEL AJ, 2000, ENVIRON MONIT ASSESS, V61, P49 MCMICHAEL AJ, 2001, AM J PUBLIC HEALTH, V91, P1172 MCMICHAEL AJ, 2001, HUMAN FRONTIERS ENV MCMICHAEL AJ, 2001, IPCC 2001 CLIMATE CH, P451 MCMICHAEL AJ, 2002, REG C CLIM VAR CHANG MORENOBELTRAN A, 1999, J MOL CATAL B-ENZYM, V6, P1 ORTIZ PL, 1997, 8 C INT BIOM PAN, V97, P240 ORTIZ PL, 2000, P C NAT ASS RES CLIM, P203 PATZ JA, 1998, HLTH ENV, V12, P49 PATZ JA, 2001, ECOSYSTEM CHANGE PUB, P379 PATZ JA, 2002, NATURE, V420, P627 PATZ JA, 2002, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V99, P12506 REITER P, 2001, ENVIRON HEALTH PE S1, V109, P141 ROBERTS L, 2001, ECOSYSTEM CHANGE PUB, P409 ROSAS I, 1989, INT J BIOMETEOROL, V33, P173 ROSAS I, 1994, AEROBIOLOGIA, V10, P39 ROSAS I, 1995, AEROBIOLOGIA, V11, P81 SUTHERST RW, 2001, INT J PARASITOL, V31, P933 VANLIESHOUT M, 2004, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V14, P87 VITOUSEK PM, 1997, SCIENCE, V277, P494 WITTWER SH, 1995, FOOD CLIMATE CARBON NR 63 TC 0 J9 REG ENVIRON CHANG BP 157 EP 164 PY 2006 PD JUN VL 6 IS 3 GA 054MU UT ISI:000238382000004 ER PT J AU OBrien, KL Leichenko, RM TI Double exposure: assessing the impacts of climate change within the context of economic globalization SO GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS LA English DT Article C1 Univ Oslo, CICERO, N-0318 Oslo, Norway. Rutgers State Univ, Dept Geog, New Brunswick, NJ 08901 USA. Rutgers State Univ, Ctr Urban Policy Res, New Brunswick, NJ 08901 USA. RP OBrien, KL, Univ Oslo, CICERO, POB 1129 Blindern, N-0318 Oslo, Norway. AB This paper considers synergisms between the impacts of two global processes, climate change and economic globalization. Both processes entail long-term changes that will have differential impacts throughout the world. Despite widespread recognition that there will be "winners" and "losers" with both climate change and globalization, the two issues are rarely examined together. In this paper, we introduce the concept of double exposure as a framework for examining the simultaneous impacts of climate change and globalization. Double exposure refers to the fact that certain regions, sectors, ecosystems and social groups will be confronted both by the impacts of climate change, and by the consequences of globalization. By considering the joint impacts of the two processes, new sets of winners and losers emerge. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. 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SO ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING AND ASSESSMENT LA English DT Article C1 CSIRO, Climate Impacts Grp, Aspendale, Vic 3195, Australia. RP Pittock, AB, CSIRO, Climate Impacts Grp, PB 1, Aspendale, Vic 3195, Australia. AB Adaptation in response to anthropogenic climate change seeks to maintain viability by maximising benefits and minimising losses. It is necessary because some climatic change is now inevitable, despite the international focus on mitigation measures. Indeed, the measures agreed at Kyoto would by themselves result in only a small reduction in the climate changes to be expected over the next century. Discussion of the expected changes and possible impacts leads to the following conclusions regarding climate change scenarios in relation to impacts and adaptation: Climate change in the foreseeable future will not be some new stable "equilibrium" climate, but rather an ongoing "transient" process; Climate change predictions relevant to impacts on most sectors and ecosystems are still highly uncertain; There is a need for a greater focus on developing countries and tropical regions, and on relevant key variables, including the magnitude and frequency of extreme events; The focus should shift from single predictions, or extreme ranges of uncertainty, to risk assessment; Thresholds critical to impacted sectors and ecosystems should be identified, and expressed as functions of climatic variables; Planned adaptations will be necessary to cope with multiple stresses, including those due to non-climatic changes; A major task of adaptation science is to identify the limits of adaptation, i.e., to identify "dangerous levels of greenhouse gases" beyond which adaptation becomes impractical or prohibitively expensive. CR *CSIRO, 1996, CLIM CHANG SCEN AUST *WMO, 1995, 37 WORLD MET ORG GLO ANTHES RA, 1982, AM METEOROLOGICAL SO, V41 BAZZAZ FA, 1990, ANNU REV ECOL SYST, V21, P167 BEER T, 1995, 102 COMM AUSTR BOLIN B, 1998, SCIENCE, V279, P330 BROCCOLI AJ, 1995, B AM METEOROL SOC, V76, P2243 BUDDEMEIER RW, 1994, B I OCEANOGRAPHIQUE, V13, P119 BUDDEMEIER RW, 1996, B I OCEANOGRAPHIQUE, V14, P23 CUBASCH U, 1994, CLIM DYNAM, V10, P1 CURE JD, 1986, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V38, P127 ENGLAND MH, 1995, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V22, P3051 EVANS JL, 1992, INT J CLIMATOL, V12, P611 FAIRBANKS RG, 1989, NATURE, V342, P637 FOWLER AM, 1995, NAT HAZARDS, V11, P283 GATTUSO JP, IN PRESS AM ZOOLOGIS GIFFORD RM, 1996, GREENHOUSE COPING CL, P399 GLYNN PW, 1996, GLOB CHANGE BIOL, V2, P495 GORDON HB, 1997, MON WEATHER REV, V125, P875 GRAY WM, 1968, MON WEA REV, V96, P669 GRAY WM, 1975, 234 COL STAT U DEP A GREGORY JM, 1993, J CLIMATE, V6, P2247 HARRISON DE, 1997, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V24, P1779 HENDERSONSELLERS A, 1993, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V25, P203 HENDERSONSELLERS A, 1998, B AM METEOROL SOC, V79, P19 HENNESSY KJ, 1997, CLIM DYNAM, V13, P667 HERMAN JR, 1996, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V23, P2117 HOLLAND GJ, 1993, WMOTD560 HOLLAND GJ, 1997, J ATMOS SCI, V54, P2519 HOPLEY D, 1988, CSIRO PUB, P189 HUBBERT GD, IN PRESS J COASTAL R JACKETT DR, IN PRESS J CLIMATE JONES RN, 1997, FRONTIERS ECOLOGY BU, P311 JONES RN, 1998, IN PRESS P WORKSH IM KARL TR, 1990, J CLIMATE, V3, P1053 KINZIE RA, 1996, GLOB CHANGE BIOL, V2, P479 KLEYPAS JA, 1997, PALEOCEANOGRAPHY, V12, P533 KNUTSON TR, 1998, SCIENCE, V279, P1018 KONISHI T, 1995, PAPERS METEOROLOGY G, V46, P9 LARCOMBE P, 1996, GREAT BARRIER REEF T LIGHTHILL J, 1994, B AM METEOROL SOC, V75, P2147 LUBIN D, 1995, NATURE, V377, P710 MCDOUGALL TJ, 1996, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V23, P2085 MCGREGOR JL, 1993, MODELLING CHANGE ENV, P367 MEEHL GA, 1996, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V23, P3755 NASH JM, 1998, TIME 0302, P44 OFARRELL SP, 1997, ANN GLACIOL, V25, P137 PARRY ML, 1996, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V6, P1 PITTOCK AB, IN PRESS AM ZOOLOGIS PITTOCK AB, 1995, REV ENV, V37, P25 PITTOCK AB, 1995, WEATHER CLIMATE, V15, P21 RAJAGOPALAN B, 1997, J CLIMATE, V10, P2351 RAYNER S, 1997, SUGGESTIONS POLICYMA REVELL CG, 1986, MON WEATHER REV, V114, P1138 SCHICK JM, 1997, GLOB CHANGE BIOL, V6, P527 SMITH I, IN PRESS GLOBAL PLAN SOLOMON AM, 1993, VEGETATION DYNAMICS, P25 SUPPIAH R, 1998, 19941997 CSIRO DIV A TERAMURA AH, 1983, PHYSIOL PLANTARUM, V58, P415 TEVINI M, 1993, UV B RAD OZONE DEPLE TRENBERTH KE, 1996, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V23, P57 TRENBERTH KE, 1997, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V24, P3057 WALSH K, 1997, J CLIMATE, V10, P2240 WALSH KJE, UNPUB J CLIMATE WATSON RT, 1998, REGIONAL IMPACTS CLI, V1, P1 WATTERSON IG, 1995, J CLIMATE, V8, P3052 WHETTON PH, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE PEOPL, P89 WHETTON PH, 1996, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V33, P497 WIGLEY TML, 1998, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V25, P2285 WILBY RL, 1997, PROG PHYS GEOG, V21, P530 WILSON SG, 1997, IMPACT GREENHOUSE WA WYRTKI K, 1985, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V12, P125 NR 72 TC 8 J9 ENVIRON MONIT ASSESS BP 9 EP 35 PY 2000 PD MAR VL 61 IS 1 GA 300UB UT ISI:000086270100002 ER PT J AU Meir, E Andelman, S Possingham, HP TI Does conservation planning matter in a dynamic and uncertain world? SO ECOLOGY LETTERS LA English DT Article C1 Univ Calif Santa Barbara, Natl Ctr Ecol Anal & Synth, Santa Barbara, CA 93101 USA. Simbiot Software, Ithaca, NY 14850 USA. Univ Queensland, Ctr Ecol, St Lucia, Qld 4075, Australia. Univ Queensland, Dept Math, St Lucia, Qld 4075, Australia. RP Andelman, S, Univ Calif Santa Barbara, Natl Ctr Ecol Anal & Synth, Santa Barbara, CA 93101 USA. AB Loss of biodiversity is one of the world's overriding environmental challenges. Reducing those losses by creating reserve networks is a cornerstone of global conservation and resource management. Historically, assembly of reserve networks has been ad hoc, but recently the focus has shifted to identifying optimal reserve networks. We show that while comprehensive reserve network design is best when the entire network can be implemented immediately, when conservation investments must be staged over years, such solutions actually may be sub-optimal in the context of biodiversity loss and uncertainty. Simple decision rules, such as protecting the available site with the highest irreplaceability or with the highest species richness, may be more effective when implementation occurs over many years. CR *WDPA, 2003, WORLD DAT PROT AR IU AIRAME S, 2003, ECOL APPL S, V13, S170 ANDELMAN SJ, 1999, SITES V 1 0 ANAL TOO ANDELMAN SJ, 2002, CONSERV BIOL, V16, P1352 ANDELMAN SJ, 2003, ECOL LETT, V6, P818 ANDO A, 1998, SCIENCE, V279, P2126 BALMFORD A, 2002, SCIENCE, V297, P950 BELLMAN R, 1957, DYNAMIC PROGRAMMING CARO TM, 2001, BIOL CONSERV, V98, P251 COSTELLO C, 2004, RESOUR ENERGY ECON, V26, P157 COWLING RM, 2003, BIOL CONSERV, V112, P191 DAILY GC, 2001, ECOL APPL, V11, P1 DAVIS FW, 1999, PARKS, V9, P31 FERRIER S, 2000, BIOL CONSERV, V93, P303 FRANKLIN JF, 1993, ECOL APPL, V3, P202 GROVES C, 2003, DRAFTING CONSERVATIO JAMES A, 2001, BIOSCIENCE, V51, P43 LI L, 2003, LANDSCAPE URBAN PLAN, V64, P67 LIU JG, 2001, SCIENCE, V292, P98 MALAKOFF D, 2002, SCIENCE, V296, P245 MANGEL M, 1988, DYNAMIC MODELING BEH MIDGLEY GF, 2002, GLOBAL ECOL BIOGEOGR, V11, P445 MIDGLEY GF, 2003, BIOL CONSERV, V112, P87 MILLER KR, 1996, BIODIVERSITY MANAGED, P425 NEWMARK WD, 1987, NATURE, V325, P430 NOSS RF, 2002, CONSERV BIOL, V16, P895 PARKS SA, 2002, CONSERV BIOL, V16, P800 PIMM SL, 2001, SCIENCE, V293, P2207 POLASKY S, 2001, LAND ECON, V77, P76 PONTIUS RG, 2001, AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON, V85, P191 POSSINGHAM H, 1993, P 12 AUSTR OP RES C, P536 POSSINGHAM H, 1999, QUANTITATIVE METHODS, P291 PRESSEY RL, 1996, BIOL CONSERV, V76, P259 PYKE CR, 2004, FRONTIERISM ECOL ENV, V4, P178 RODRIGUES ASL, 2004, NATURE, V428, P640 ROSENZWEIG ML, 2003, WIN WIN ECOLOGY EART THEOBALD DM, 1998, GEOGRAPHICAL ENV MOD, V2, P65 WADDELL P, 2002, TRANSPORT RES REC, V1805, P105 NR 38 TC 1 J9 ECOL LETT BP 615 EP 622 PY 2004 PD AUG VL 7 IS 8 GA 838ME UT ISI:000222716600001 ER PT J AU Herbert, JM Dixon, RW Isom, JL TI A tropical weather vulnerability assessment for Texas coastal counties SO TEXAS JOURNAL OF SCIENCE LA English DT Article C1 Texas State Univ, James & Marilyn Lovell Ctr Environm Geog & Hazard, Dept Geog, San Marcos, TX 78666 USA. RP Herbert, JM, Jacksonville State Univ, Dept Phys & Earth Sci, Jacksonville, AL 36265 USA. AB A Tropical Weather Vulnerability Index is developed for the Texas coast. This index is based on the Hurricane Vulnerability Index of Dixon & Fitzsimons (2001), but includes additional data on tropical storms and accounts for edge effects of storms making landfall in Louisiana or Tamaulipas. The Index includes risk and exposure. Risk is measured by the number of landfalling tropical storms and hurricanes on Texas coastal counties. Exposure is measured by the number of people and the amount of property in these counties. Analysis shows the northern part of the coast, particularly Harris, Galveston, and Brazoria counties, to be more vulnerable than the central and southern parts. CR *NATL WEATH SERV H, 2001, ONLINE TROP STORM AL BOVE MC, 1998, B AM METEOROL SOC, V79, P1327 DIXON RW, 2001, TEX J SCI, V53, P345 ELSNER JB, 2000, J CLIMATE, V13, P2293 ELSNER JB, 2003, B AM METEOROL SOC, V84, P353 FRANKLIN JL, 2003, B AM METEOROL SOC, V84, P1197 HERRERA RG, 2003, B AM METEOROL SOC, V84, P1025 LANDSEA CW, 1993, MON WEATHER REV, V121, P1703 PIELKE JR, 1997, HURRICANES THEIR NAT NR 9 TC 0 J9 TEX J SCI BP 187 EP 196 PY 2005 PD MAY VL 57 IS 2 GA 956CU UT ISI:000231277300006 ER PT J AU Lehner, B Doll, P Alcamo, J Henrichs, T Kaspar, F TI Estimating the impact of global change on flood and drought risks in europe: A continental, integrated analysis SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 World Wildlife Fund US, Washington, DC 20037 USA. Univ Kassel, Ctr Environm Syst Res, D-34109 Kassel, Germany. RP Lehner, B, World Wildlife Fund US, 1250 24th St NW, Washington, DC 20037 USA. AB Most studies on the impact of climate change on regional water resources focus on long-term average flows or mean water availability, and they rarely take the effects of altered human water use into account. When analyzing extreme events such as floods and droughts, the assessments are typically confined to smaller areas and case studies. At the same time it is acknowledged that climate change may severely alter the risk of hydrological extremes over large regional scales, and that human water use will put additional pressure on future water resources. In an attempt to bridge these various aspects, this paper presents a first-time continental, integrated analysis of possible impacts of global change (here defined as climate and water use change) on future flood and drought frequencies for the selected study area of Europe. The global integrated water model WaterGAP is evaluated regarding its capability to simulate high and low-flow regimes and is then applied to calculate relative changes in flood and drought frequencies. The results indicate large critical regions' for which significant changes in flood or drought risks are expected under the proposed global change scenarios. The regions most prone to a rise in flood frequencies are northern to northeastern Europe, while southern and southeastern Europe show significant increases in drought frequencies. In the critical regions, events with an intensity of today's 100-year floods and droughts may recur every 10-50 years by the 2070s. Though interim and preliminary, and despite the inherent uncertainties in the presented approach, the results underpin the importance of developing mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change impacts on a continental scale. 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CR 1979, PROCEDURES EVALUATIO 1980, PROGR REPORT IMPLEME 1980, REPORT FLOOD HAZARD CARROLL J, 1979, BENEFITS COSTS, V2 CAULFIELD HP, 1983, PLAN RES FLOODS THEI, P137 CHANGNON SA, 1980, PLAN RES FLOODS THEI DRABEK T, 1983, PLAN RES FLOODS THEI, P107 MARZOLF GR, 1983, PLAN RES FLOODS THEI, P55 MILLIMAN JW, 1983, PLAN RES FLOODS THEI, P83 WHITE GF, 1975, ASSESSMENT RES NATUR, V1, P1 WHITE GF, 1975, FLOOD HAZARD US RES WHITE GF, 1983, PLAN RES FLOODS THEI, P173 NR 12 TC 1 J9 J WATER RESOUR PLAN MAN-ASCE BP 54 EP 64 PY 1985 VL 111 IS 1 GA TY302 UT ISI:A1985TY30200004 ER PT J AU Cosgrove, W Connor, R Kuylenstierna, J TI Workshop 3 (synthesis): climate variability, water systems and management options SO WATER SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY LA English DT Article C1 Chair Int Steering Comm, Grp Secor, Dialogue Water & Climate, Montreal, PQ H2Z 1B1, Canada. Dialogue Water & Climate, NL-2601 DA Delft, Netherlands. Stockholm Int Water Inst, SE-11221 Stockholm, Sweden. RP Cosgrove, W, Chair Int Steering Comm, Grp Secor, Dialogue Water & Climate, 555 Blvd Rene Levesque Quest, Montreal, PQ H2Z 1B1, Canada. AB Addressing climate variability now will better prepare us for future impacts of climate change. Sustained, multi-stakeholder dialogue at local through national levels is an approach that will reach the widest audience, helped by tools that illustrate vulnerability such as the Climate Vulnerability Index. Integrated water resources management deals with managing for variability and change and is therefore highly appropriate for dealing with climate impacts. NR 0 TC 0 J9 WATER SCI TECHNOL BP 129 EP 132 PY 2004 VL 49 IS 7 GA 834HB UT ISI:000222401100025 ER PT J AU Reed, MS Dougill, AJ TI Participatory selection process for indicators of rangeland condition in the Kalahari SO GEOGRAPHICAL JOURNAL LA English DT Article C1 Univ Leeds, Sch Environm, Leeds Environm & Dev Grp, Leeds LS2 9JT, W Yorkshire, England. RP Reed, MS, Univ Leeds, Sch Environm, Leeds Environm & Dev Grp, Leeds LS2 9JT, W Yorkshire, England. AB To develop indicator-based management tools that can facilitate sustainable natural resource management by non-specialists, meaningful participation of stakeholders is essential. A participatory framework is proposed for the identification, evaluation and selection of rangeland condition indicators. This framework is applied to the assessment of rangeland degradation processes and sustainable natural resource management with pastoralists in the southern Kalahari, Botswana. Farmer knowledge focused on vegetation and livestock, with soil, wild animal and socio-economic indicators playing a lesser role. Most were indicators of current rangeland condition; however 'early warning' indicators were also identified by some key informants. This demonstrates that some local knowledge is process-based. Such knowledge could be used to improve indicator-based management tools and extension advice on the livelihood adaptations necessary to prevent or reduce ecological change, capable of threatening livelihood sustainability. There is evidence that social background influences indicator use. Communal farmers rely most heavily on vegetation and livestock indicators, whilst syndicate and landowning pastoralists cite wild animal and soil-based indicators most frequently. These factors must be considered if indicator-based management tools are to meet the requirements of a diverse community. CR MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 *NRC, 2000, IND NAT *OECD, 1993, OECD COR SET IND ENV *UNCSD, 1996, IND SUST DEV FRAM ME ABEL NOJ, 1989, LAND DEGRAD REHABIL, V1, P101 ABEL NOJ, 1993, RANGE ECOLOGY DISEQU ASHLEY C, 2000, 134 ODI BEHNKE RH, 1993, RANGE ECOLOGY DISEQU BELLOWS BC, 1995, 195 SANREM CRSP, P243 BRECKENRIDGE RP, 1995, ENVIRON MONIT ASSESS, V36, P45 CAMPBELL BM, 2000, ECOL ECON, V33, P413 CARNEY D, 1998, SUSTAINABLE RURAL LI COWLING RM, 2000, TRENDS ECOL EVOL, V15, P303 DAVIES S, 1996, ADAPTABLE LIVELIHOOD DOUGILL A, 1999, GLOBAL ECOL BIOGEOGR, V8, P211 DOUGILL AJ, 1995, LAND DEGRADATION GRA DOUGILL AJ, 1999, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V89, P420 FORAN BD, 1978, P GRASSLAND SOC SO A, V15, P37 GRANT CC, 1996, ONDERSTEPOORT J VET, V63, P109 ILLIUS AW, 1999, ECOL APPL, V9, P798 ILLIUS AW, 2000, OIKOS, V89, P283 KIPURI N, 1996, GRASSROOTS INDICATOR KRUGMANN H, 1996, GRASSROOTS INDICATOR LANE CR, 1998, CUSTODIANS COMMONS P LIGHTFOOT C, 1993, J ASIAN FARMING SYST, V2, P67 MIDDLETON NJ, 1997, WORLD ATLAS DESERTIF MILTON SJ, 1998, J ARID ENVIRON, V39, P253 MORSE S, 2001, SUSTAIN DEV, V9, P1 PERKINS JS, 1993, LAND DEGRAD REHABIL, V4, P179 REED MS, 2001, FACILITATING PARTICI REIJ C, 2001, FARMER INNOVATION AF, P1 RENNIE JK, 1996, PARTICIPATORY RES SU SAVORY A, 1988, BIOL MONITORING NOTE SCOONES I, 1995, LIVING UNCERTAINTY N, P1 SCOONES I, 1998, 72 IDS SKARPE C, 1986, J ARID ENVIRON, V11, P147 SMYTH AJ, 1995, CAN J SOIL SCI, V75, P401 SPORTON D, 2002, SUSTAINABLE LIVELIHO STOCKDALE MC, 1996, RECENT APPROACHES PA STOCKING MA, 2001, HDB FIELD ASSESSMENT THOMAS DSG, 1991, J ARID ENVIRON, V20, P1 THOMAS DSG, 2000, LAND DEGRAD DEV, V11, P327 THOMAS DSG, 2001, 58 PANRUSA DFID U SH TONGWAY D, 1995, ENVIRON MONIT ASSESS, V37, P303 TOULMIN C, 2000, EVOLVING LAND RIGHTS TWYMAN C, 2001, REV AFRICAN POLITICA, V28, P9 VORSTER M, 1982, P GRASSLAND SOC SO A, V17, P84 WHITE R, 1993, LIVESTOCK DEV PASTOR WOODHOUSE P, 2000, 2 U MANCH NR 49 TC 0 J9 GEOGR J BP 224 EP 234 PY 2002 PD SEP VL 168 GA 614KV UT ISI:000179188900004 ER PT J AU Kerr, RB TI Informal labor and social relations in northern Malawi: The theoretical challenges and implications of ganyu labor for food security SO RURAL SOCIOLOGY LA English DT Article C1 Cornell Univ, Dept Dev Sociol, Ithaca, NY 14853 USA. RP Kerr, RB, Cornell Univ, Dept Rural Sociol, Ithaca, NY 14853 USA. AB Food insecurity is a problem faced by smallholder farmers in Malawi. In any given year between 70 and 85 percent of households run out of food stocks several months prior to the next harvest. Once food stocks are depleted many households obtain food by doing ganyu, a type of piecework labor. Limited research has been carried out on ganyu. This paper uses qualitative data to examine ganyu in relation to food security in one area of northern Malawi. Using the livelihoods framework, I argue that the most common form of ganyu is both a livelihood strategy and a measure of vulnerability, rather than a type of social capital as suggested by other authors. High reliance on ganyu points to increased social stratification related to a rise in smallholder tobacco production. Women in female-headed households appear to rely more on ganyu than in married households. Policy implications of these findings are considered. CR *MIN AGR, 1991, FOOD SEC NUTR MON RE *MIN AGR, 1993, NAT SAMPL SURV AGR 1 *MSIS, 1996, MAL SOC IND SURV 199 *NAT STUD OFF MACR, 2001, MAL DEM HLTH SURV 20 ADATO M, 2002, 128 FCND IFPRI BENSON T, 2002, MALAWI ATLAS SOCIAL BOURDIEU P, 1985, HDB THEORY RES SOCIO, P241 BROWN DL, 2001, RURAL SOCIOL, V66, P157 COLEMAN J, 1988, AM J SOCIOL, V94, P94 DEVEREUX S, 1997, HOUSEHOLD FOOD SECUR ELLIS F, 2002, 17 LADDER DFID ENGLUND H, 1999, AFRICA, V69, P138 FINE B, 2001, SOCIAL CAPITAL VERSU GRANOVETTER M, 1985, AM J SOCIOL, V91, P481 HIRSCHMANN D, 1984, WOMEN FARMERS MALAWI KERR RB, 2005, IN PRESS J SO AFRICA KYDD J, 1989, J INT DEV, V1, P112 KYDD JG, 1982, WORLD DEV, V10, P377 LAWSONMCDOWALL, 1999, FARMING SYSTEM INTEG LIGHTFOOT C, 1991, HOUSEHOLDS AGROECOSY LOW JW, 1994, THESIS CORNELL U LUHANGU MS, 2002, UNPUB FOOD SECURITY MARSLAND N, 1999, COPING POVERTY MALAW MATSUKWA L, 1994, FOOD POLICY PRODUCTI MCCRACKEN J, 1982, J SO AFRICAN STUDIES, V9, P172 MTIKA MM, 2001, HUM ORGAN, V60, P178 ORR A, 2000, WORLD DEV, V28, P347 ORR A, 2001, WORLD DEV, V29, P1325 PATTON MQ, 1990, QUALITATIVE EVALUATI PETERS P, 1988, WORKSH HOUS FOOD SEC, P33 PETERS P, 1989, CASH CROPPING FOOD S PETERS P, 1995, DEV LIBERALIZATION M PETERS P, 1996, 562 HARV I INT DEV PETERS P, 1999, AGR COMMERCIALIZATIO PETERS PE, 1997, CRIT ANTHROPOL, V17, P189 PORTES A, 1998, ANNU REV SOCIOL, V24, P1 PORTES A, 2000, SOCIOL FORUM, V15, P1 PUTNAM R, 1993, MAKING DEMOCRACY WOR REARDON T, 1997, WORLD DEV, V25, P735 SMALE M, 1995, WORLD DEV, V23, P819 VAIL L, 1983, HIST CENTRAL AFRICA, V2, P200 VAUGHAN M, 1987, STORY AFRICAN FAMINE WALKER PA, 1998, INT ASS STUDY COMMON, P21 WALL E, 1998, RURAL SOCIOL, V63, P300 WHITEHEAD A, 2001, IDS WORKING PAPER, V134, P1 WHITESIDE M, 2000, AGR RES EXTENSION NE, V99, P1 NR 46 TC 0 J9 RURAL SOCIOL BP 167 EP 187 PY 2005 PD JUN VL 70 IS 2 GA 958EJ UT ISI:000231427200002 ER PT J AU Murphy, AB TI The role of geography in public debate SO PROGRESS IN HUMAN GEOGRAPHY LA English DT Editorial Material C1 Univ Oregon, Eugene, OR 97403 USA. Michigan State Univ, E Lansing, MI 48824 USA. Clark Univ, Worcester, MA 01610 USA. Univ So Calif, Los Angeles, CA 90089 USA. Univ British Columbia, Vancouver, BC V5Z 1M9, Canada. RP Murphy, AB, Univ Oregon, Eugene, OR 97403 USA. AB Many geographers work on matters of great relevance for the issues facing society, but geography is rarely invoked in public debates over matters of contemporary concern. As a result, geographical perspectives are often missing from public discourse, and outmoded conceptions of geography are reinforced. This forum considers the importance and challenge of addressing this state of affairs. Four distinguished geographers who have been involved in different ways with the effort to raise geography's profile consider the possibilities and limitations of enhancing geography's public profile. Consideration is given to the prospects for raising the discipline's visibility in high-profile public venues, the role of geography in organized international research endeavors, the challenge of linking what geographers do to social activism, and the importance of questioning the unproblematized geographical ideas and discursive norms that already circulate in the public arena. 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V10, P551 KUHN T, 1962, STRUCTURE SCI REVOLU LAKE RW, 1992, ENVIRON PLANN A, V24, P663 LAKOFF G, 1996, MORAL POLITICS LANDES D, 1998, WEALTH POVERTY NATIO LEWIS M, 1997, MYTH CONTINENTS CRIT LINEBAUGH P, 2000, MANY HEADED HYDRA LIVERMAN DM, 2004, GUARDIAN, V1, P14 LOCKMAN Z, 2004, BATTLES US MIDDLE E LOMBORG B, 2001, SKEPTICAL ENV MAKHIJANI A, 1995, MENDING OZONE HOLE S MARX K, 1845, SELECTED WORKS, V1, P15 MARX K, 1867, CAPITAL, V1, P283 MASSEY D, 1994, SPACE PLACE GENDER MASSEY D, 2001, PROG HUM GEOG, V25, P5 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 MEARNS R, 1996, LIE LAND CHALLENGING MICHAELS P, 2000, SATANIC GASES CLEARI MONMONIER M, 1996, LIE MAPS MURPHY AB, 2003, AAG NEWSLETTER, V38, P3 MURPHY AB, 2004, AAG NEWSLETTER, V39, P3 NEGRI A, 1968, REVOLTUION RETRIEVED, P43 OTUATHAIL G, 2003, ANTIPODE, P856 PATTERSON O, 1982, SLAVERY SOCIAL DEATH PELLING M, 2004, REDUCING DISASTER RI PRASHAD V, 2003, OUT BOUNDS MAGAZINE PRATT G, 1987, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V77, P652 PULIDO L, 2000, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V90, P12 REYNOLDS JE, 2002, GLOBAL DESERTIFICATI ROBINSON C, 1982, BLACK MARXISM MAKING ROCHELEAU D, 1988, AGROFORESTRY DRYLAND ROCHELEAU D, 1996, FEMINIST POLITICAL E ROCHELEAU D, 1997, WORLD DEV, V25, P1351 RYCENGA J, 1992, THESIS GRADUATE THEO, P261 SACHS J, 2000, 1 US NAV WAR COLL SAID E, 1978, ORIENTALISM SAID E, 1993, CULTURE IMPERIALISM SAID E, 2004, HUMANISM DEMOCRATIC SCHNEIDER SH, 2001, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V91, P338 SMITH A, 2002, THESIS U CALIFORNIA SMITH N, 1992, SOCIAL TEXT, V33, P55 SOLIS P, 2004, AAG NEWSLETTER, V39, P9 SONTAG S, 2003, REGARDING PAIN OTHER STEFFEN W, 2004, GLOBAL CHANGE EARTH TURNER BL, 1990, EARTH TRANSFORMED HU TURNER BL, 1997, GEOGR J 2, V163, P133 TURNER BL, 2003, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V100, P8074 TURSE N, 2004, Z COMMUNICATIONS WALLERSTEIN I, 1991, UNTHINKING SOCIAL SC WARNER M, 2002, PUBLICS COUNTER PUBL WARNER M, 2003, JUST BEING DIFFICULT, P106 WEART SR, 2003, DISCOVERY GLOBAL WAR WHITE GF, 1985, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V75, P10 WILFORD J, 2001, OP SESS ASS AM GEOGR WISNER B, 2001, DISASTERS, V25, P251 WOLCH J, 1989, SHADOW STATE GOVT VO ZELINSKY W, 1987, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V77, P651 NR 132 TC 7 J9 PROG HUM GEOGR BP 165 EP 193 PY 2005 PD APR VL 29 IS 2 GA 929AN UT ISI:000229314600004 ER PT J AU Schendel, EK Schreier, H Lavkulich, LM TI Linkages between phosphorus index estimates and environmental quality indicators SO JOURNAL OF SOIL AND WATER CONSERVATION LA English DT Article C1 Univ British Columbia, Inst Resources Environm & Sustainabil, Vancouver, BC V5Z 1M9, Canada. RP Schendel, EK, Univ British Columbia, Inst Resources Environm & Sustainabil, Vancouver, BC V5Z 1M9, Canada. AB A growing concern over water quality in agricultural areas highlights phosphorus (P) as a key constituent in eutrophication and degrading water quality. A preliminary analysis is presented that tests the effectiveness of P index predictions using linkages to sediment and surface water P concentrations. The field P status in the Elk Creek watershed is described according to P inputs by land managers, soil characteristics, and sediment and water quality analyses. The watershed is partitioned into contributing areas, and the available P in soils shows an increase in concentration in the downstream direction. The P index ratings also show an increase in vulnerability for P loss from soil to surface waters in the lower part of the watershed. The rankings are in agreement with the intensity of land use, and this is reflected in the increase in predominance of the source factors as the main contributor to the D index ratings. In spite of complex process interaction associated with sediment movement, the stream sediment showed similar trends to the soils and P index ratings. Increases in total P in wet-season stream water at the outlet of the watershed may indicate the downstream cumulative effects predicted by the P index ratings. 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ER PT J AU Peterson, GD TI Political ecology and ecological resilience: An integration of human and ecological dynamics SO ECOLOGICAL ECONOMICS LA English DT Article C1 Univ Calif Santa Barbara, Natl Ctr Ecol Anal & Synth, Santa Barbara, CA 93101 USA. RP Peterson, GD, Univ Wisconsin, Ctr Limnol, 680 N Pk St, Madison, WI 53706 USA. AB The biosphere is increasingly dominated by human action. Consequently, ecology must incorporate human behavior. Political ecology, as long as it includes ecology, is a powerful framework for integrating natural and social dynamics. In this paper I present a resilience-oriented approach to political ecology that integrates system dynamics, scale, and cross-scale interactions in both human and natural systems. This approach suggests that understanding the coupled dynamics of human-ecological systems allows the assessment of when systems are most vulnerable and most open to transformation. I use this framework to examine the political ecology of salmon in the Columbia River Basin. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. 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RP Penning-Rowsell, E, Middlesex Univ, Flood Hazard Res Ctr, Enfield EN3 4SF, Middx, England. AB Flood risk management policy in the UK is shifting away from simplistic flood defence towards 'living with floods' and 'making space for water', thereby accepting that significant flood damage and disruption will continue into the future. This highlights the need for efficient emergency response to flood events, as the first step towards recovery, yet we know very little about the resources and costs that this involves. This paper evaluates the severe flooding in the UK in autumn 2000, and shows that these costs are widely distributed, both geographically and institutionally. Geographically, they broadly match the incidence of property flooding, but they are much larger than we had hitherto appreciated, at approximately 15 per cent of total economic flood losses. The implication is that we should take this topic more seriously in the future than in the past, not see emergency response to floods and other disasters as a low-cost or even a cost-free option, and ensure that this effort is as effective as possible in facilitating post-event recovery. 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Univ Manitoba, Winnipeg, MB R3T 2N2, Canada. Chiang Mai Univ, Chiang Mai 50000, Thailand. Stockholm Univ, S-10691 Stockholm, Sweden. Natl Wildlife Federat, Vienna, VA 22184 USA. AB The empirical evidence in the papers in this special issue identifies pervasive and difficult cross-scale and cross-level interactions in managing the environment. The complexity of these interactions and the fact that both scholarship and management have only recently begun to address this complexity have provided the impetus for us to present one synthesis of scale and cross-scale dynamics. In doing so, we draw from multiple cases, multiple disciplines, and multiple perspectives. In this synthesis paper, and in the accompanying cases, we hypothesize that the dynamics of cross-scale and cross-level interactions are affected by the interplay between institutions at multiple levels and scales. We suggest that the advent of co-management structures and conscious boundary management that includes knowledge co-production, mediation, translation, and negotiation across scale-related boundaries may facilitate solutions to complex problems that decision makers have historically been unable to solve. CR *MILL EC ASS, 2005, EC HUM WELL BEING SY ADGER WN, 2001, DEV CHANGE, V32, P681 ADGER WN, 2005, ECOL SOC, V10, P9 BERKES F, 2002, DRAMA COMMONS, P293 BERKES F, 2002, PANARCHY UNDERSTANDI, P121 BERKES F, 2006, ECOL SOC, V11, P45 CARLSSON L, 2005, J ENVIRON MANAGE, V75, P65 CASH DW, 2000, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V10, P109 CASH DW, 2001, SCI TECHNOL HUM VAL, V26, P431 CASH DW, 2003, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V100, P8086 CLARK WC, 1987, FORECASTING SOCIAL N, P337 FOLKE C, 1998, PROBLEM FIT ECOSYSTE FOLKE C, 2002, RESILIENCE SUSTAINAB FOLKE C, 2005, ANNU REV ENV RESOUR, V30, P441 GADGIL M, 2003, NAVIGATING SOCIAL EC, P189 GIBBONS M, 1999, NATURE S, V402, C81 GIBSON C, 1997, SCALING ISSUES SOCIA GIBSON CC, 2000, ECOL ECON, V32, P217 GOLDMAN M, 1998, PRIVATIZING NATURE P GUNDERSON LH, 2002, PANARCHY UNDERSTANDI, V1, P1 GUSTON DH, 1999, SOC STUD SCI, V29, P87 GUSTON DH, 2001, SCI TECHNOL HUM VAL, V26, P399 HOLLING CS, 1986, SUSTAINABLE DEV BIOS, V1, P1 HOLLING CS, 1995, DEFINING MEASURING S, P65 KATES RW, 2001, SCIENCE, V292, P641 LANSING S, 1991, PRIESTS PROGRAMMERS LEBEL L, 2005, ECOL SOC, V10, P18 MEADOWCROFT J, 2002, LANDSCAPE URBAN PLAN, V61, P169 OLSSON P, 2004, ENVIRON MANAGE, V34, P75 OSTROM E, 1999, SCIENCE, V284, P282 OSTROM E, 2002, DRAME COMMONS PASTORSATORRAS R, 2001, PHYS REV LETT, V86, P3200 POLSKY C, 2005, DROUGHT WATER CRISES, P215 SCOTT JC, 1998, SEEING LIKE STATE CE SINGLETON S, 1998, CONSTRUCTING COOPERA STAR SL, 1989, SOC STUD SCI, V19, P387 WILBANKS TJ, 1999, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V43, P601 YOUNG O, 2006, ECOL SOC, V11, P27 YOUNG OR, 2003, I DIMENSIONS ENV CHA NR 39 TC 2 J9 ECOL SOC BP 8 PY 2006 PD DEC VL 11 IS 2 GA 123FD UT ISI:000243280800003 ER PT J AU Sparks, TH Croxton, PJ Collinson, N Taylor, PW TI Examples of phenological change, past and present, in UK farming SO ANNALS OF APPLIED BIOLOGY LA English DT Article C1 NERC Ctr Ecol & Hydrol, Huntingdon PE28 2LS, Cambs, England. Woodland Trust, Grantham NG31 6LL, Lincolnshire, England. RP Sparks, TH, NERC Ctr Ecol & Hydrol, Monks Wood, Huntingdon PE28 2LS, Cambs, England. AB This paper examines a large number of agricultural and other phenological records kept by a fanner in Sussex, UK from 1980 to 2000. Twenty five of the 29 events were earlier in 1990-2000 than in 1980-1989. The average advancement of all 29 events was 5.5 days at a time when January-March mean temperature increased by 1.4 degrees C. In comparing the events with monthly mean temperatures, 18 of the events were significantly negatively related to temperatures of the three calendar months preceding the mean event date. Response rates to temperature varied between 4 and 12 days earlier for each degrees C warmer. A comparison with historical fanning records reveals that many of the current farming events appear as responsive to temperature now as they were 200 years ago. CR ABUASAB MS, 2001, BIODIVERS CONSERV, V10, P597 BEEBEE TJC, 1995, NATURE, V374, P219 BURTON JF, 2003, ATALANTA, V34, P3 CHMIELEWSKI FM, 2004, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V121, P69 CRICK HQP, 1999, NATURE, V399, P423 FITTER AH, 2002, SCIENCE, V296, P1689 HANKS GR, 1996, J HORTIC SCI BIOTECH, V71, P517 HULME M, 2002, CLIMATE CHANGE SCENA LEHIKOINEN E, 2004, ADV ECOL RES, V35, P1 MARGARY ID, 1926, Q J ROY METEOR SOC, V52, P27 MATSUMOTO K, 2003, GLOBAL CHANGE BIOL, V9, P1634 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 MENZEL A, 1999, NATURE, V397, P659 PARKER DE, 1992, INT J CLIMATOL, V12, P317 RUSSELL SC, 1921, Q J ROY METEOR SOC, V47, P57 SPARKS T, 2002, CLIMATE CHANGE IMPAC, P69 SPARKS TH, 1999, ESSEX BIRD REP, P154 SPARKS TH, 2000, INT J BIOMETEOROL, V44, P82 SPARKS TH, 2002, INT J CLIMATOL, V22, P1715 SPARKS TH, 2002, WEATHER, V57, P157 WILLIAMS TA, 2004, OECOLOGIA, V138, P122 ZHOU XL, 1995, GLOBAL CHANGE BIOL, V1, P303 NR 22 TC 2 J9 ANN APPL BIOL BP 531 EP 537 PY 2005 VL 146 IS 4 GA 958RO UT ISI:000231465600014 ER PT J AU Mossler, M TI Environmental hazard analysis and small island states: Rethinking academic approaches SO GEOGRAPHISCHE ZEITSCHRIFT LA English DT Article RP Mossler, M, RUTGERS STATE UNIV,DEPT GEOG,LUCY STONE HALL,LIVINGSTON CAMPUS,POB 5080,NEW BRUNSWICK,NJ 08903. 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RP Sheridan, SC, Kent State Univ, Dept Geog, Kent, OH 44242 USA. AB Few studies have examined heat vulnerability on a sub-metropolitan area level. This paper presents an analysis of heat vulnerability across Ohio (USA) on a county level. Each county is classified as 'urban', 'suburban', or 'rural'. Four different criteria defining what is meteorologically 'oppressive' are evaluated individually. Each of these criteria is associated with an increase in mortality of several percent statewide. Absolute increases in mortality are greatest across urban counties, as expected. When these values are evaluated as a percentage increase in mortality, rural and suburban counties actually show a greater response. The differences among the 3 groups are not statistically significant. This research thus suggests that merely being an urban resident does not make one more vulnerable to heat. CR *CDC, 2002, MORBIDITY MORTALITY, V51, P567 *NAT ASS SYNTH TEA, 2000, CLIM CHANG IMP US PO, P102 *NAT CLIM DAT CTR, 2002, BILL DOLL WEATH DIS DAVIS RE, 2002, CLIMATE RES, V22, P175 ELLIS FP, 1972, ENVIRON RES, V5, P51 ELLIS FP, 1978, ENVIRON RES, V15, P504 FISHER RA, 1935, DESIGN EXPT FORTIN MJ, 2002, ENCY ENVIRONMETRICS, P399 GREENBERG JH, 1983, AM J PUBLIC HEALTH, V73, P805 KALKSTEIN LS, 1987, EPA SCI ADVISORY COM, P122 KALKSTEIN LS, 1989, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V79, P44 KALKSTEIN LS, 1991, ENVIRON HEALTH PERSP, V96, P145 KALKSTEIN LS, 1996, B AM METEOROL SOC, V77, P1519 KALKSTEIN LS, 1997, ENVIRON HEALTH PERSP, V105, P84 KILBOURNE EM, 1997, PUBLIC HLTH CONSEQUE, P245 KUNKEL KE, 1999, B AM METEOROL SOC, V80, P1077 MCGEEHIN MA, 2001, ENVIRON HEALTH PE S2, V109, P185 OECHSLI FW, 1970, ENVIRON RES, V3, P277 OTT RL, 1993, INTRO STAT METHODS D ROGERSON PA, 2001, STAT METHODS GEOGRAP SCHMIDLIN TW, 1996, THUNDER HEARTLAND CH SHERIDAN SC, 1998, WORLD RESOURCE REV, V10, P375 SHERIDAN SC, 2000, BIOMETEOROLOGY URBAN, P487 SHERIDAN SC, 2002, INT J CLIMATOL, V22, P51 SMOYER KE, 1998, SOC SCI MED, V47, P1809 STEADMAN RG, 1979, J APPL METEOROL, V18, P861 TOL RSJ, 2002, ENVIRON RESOUR ECON, V21, P135 WHITMAN S, 1997, AM J PUBLIC HEALTH, V87, P1515 NR 28 TC 0 J9 CLIMATE RES BP 255 EP 265 PY 2003 PD SEP 19 VL 24 IS 3 GA 744JV UT ISI:000186626300006 ER PT J AU Alexandrov, VA Hoogenboom, G TI Vulnerability and adaptation assessments of agricultural crops under climate change in the Southeastern USA SO THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY LA English DT Review C1 Natl Meteorol & Hydrol, BG-1784 Sofia, Bulgaria. Univ Georgia, Griffin, GA 30223 USA. RP Hoogenboom, G, Natl Meteorol & Hydrol, BG-1784 Sofia, Bulgaria. AB It is expected that a change in climatic conditions due to global warming will directly impact agricultural production. Most climate change studies have been applied at very large scales, in which regions were represented by only one or two weather stations, which were mainly located at airports of major cities. The objective of this study was to determine the potential impact of climate change at a local level, taking into account weather data recorded at remote locations. Daily weather data for a 30-year period were obtained for more than 500 sites, representing the southeastern region of the USA. Climate change scenarios, using transient and equilibrium global circulation models (GCM), were defined, created and applied to the daily historical weather data. The modified temperature, precipitation and solar radiation databases corresponding to each of the climate change scenarios were used to run the CERES v.3.5 simulation model for maize and winter wheat and the CROPGRO v.3.5 model for soybean and peanut. The GCM scenarios projected a shorter duration of the crop-growing season. Under the current level of CO2, the GCM scenarios projected a decrease of crop yields in the 2020s. When the direct effects of CO2 were assumed in the study, the scenarios resulted in an increase in soybean and peanut yield. Under equilibrium 2 x CO2, the GCM climate change scenarios projected a decrease of maize and winter wheat yield. The indirect effects of climate change also tended to decrease soybean and peanut yield. However, when the direct effects of CO2 were included, most of the scenarios resulted in an increase in legume yields. Possible changes in sowing data, hybrids and cultivar selection, and fertilization were considered as adaptation options to mitigate the potential negative impact of potential warming. 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Univ Liverpool, Inst Sustainable Water Integrated Management & Ec, Liverpool L69 3BX, Merseyside, England. Aquat Ecosyst Unit UEA IRTA, Sant Carels Rapita 03540, Catalonia, Spain. RP Day, JW, Louisiana State Univ, Sch Coast & Environm, Dept Oceanog & Coastal Sci, Baton Rouge, LA 70803 USA. 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RP Boland, A, Univ Washington, Dept Geog, Seattle, WA 98195 USA. AB Following the release of the 1994 report 'Who will feed China?' by the Worldwatch Institute, there has been much debate over the implications of China's growing demand for grain. The question of China's food production has elicited a variety of responses. While for some it raises the specter of regional and global instability as China becomes an environmental threat, for others the entrance of China into the world market promises increased trade and profits. In this paper I explore the responses in China and the US to the different notions of interdependence which have shaped the debate. I first turn to how concerns over China's food supply have, despite appeals to the concepts of global environmental and economic interdependence, become linked to classical state-centered geopolitical concerns such as 'sovereignty' and 'containment.' I then look at how the debate has also been actively distanced from national security concerns through the invocation of an alternative interdependence founded on the logic of commerce. I conclude by arguing for the need within critical geopolitics to further examine the circulation of strategic texts between and within states, particularly in the analysis of texts that map worlds beyond the boundaries of North America and Europe. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. 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English DT Article C1 Univ New Hampshire, Inst Study Earth Oceans & Space, Complex Syst Res Ctr, Water Syst Anal Grp, Durham, NH 03824 USA. Purdue Univ, Dept Agron, W Lafayette, IN 47907 USA. Purdue Univ, Dept Earth & Atmospher Sci, W Lafayette, IN 47907 USA. Colorado State Univ, Dept Atmospher Sci, Ft Collins, CO 80523 USA. Indian Inst Technol, Ctr Atmospher Sci, New Delhi 110016, India. RP Douglas, EM, Univ New Hampshire, Inst Study Earth Oceans & Space, Complex Syst Res Ctr, Water Syst Anal Grp, 39 Coll Rd, Durham, NH 03824 USA. AB We present a conceptual synthesis of the impact that agricultural activity in India can have on land-atmosphere interactions through irrigation. We illustrate a "bottom up'' approach to evaluate the effects of land use change on both physical processes and human vulnerability. We compared vapor fluxes ( estimated evaporation and transpiration) from a pre-agricultural and a contemporary land cover and found that mean annual vapor fluxes have increased by 17% (340 km(3)) with a 7% increase (117 km(3)) in the wet season and a 55% increase ( 223 km(3)) in the dry season. Two thirds of this increase was attributed to irrigation, with groundwater-based irrigation contributing 14% and 35% of the vapor fluxes in the wet and dry seasons, respectively. The area averaged change in latent heat flux across India was estimated to be 9 Wm(-2). The largest increases occurred where both cropland and irrigated lands were the predominant contemporary land uses. CR *CWC, 1998, WAT REL STAT REP *NAT RES COUNC, 2005, RAD FORC CLIM CHANG ADEGOKE JO, 2003, MON WEATHER REV, V131, P556 ALAPATY K, 2001, J APPL METEOROL, V40, P2068 AVISSAR R, 1996, J GEOPHYS RES-ATMOS, V101, P7499 BANSIL PC, 2004, WATER MANAGEMENT IND CHANDA TK, 2003, FERTILIZER STAT 2002 CHASE TN, 2003, NAT HAZARDS, V29, P229 DEROSNAY P, 2003, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V30 FROLKING S, 2006, FIELD CROP RES, V98, P164 FU C, 2004, VEGETATION WATER HUM, P115 GORDON LJ, 2005, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V102, P7612 KABAT P, 2004, VEGETATION WATER HUM LOHAR D, 1995, J CLIMATE, V8, P2567 MARSHALL CH, 2004, MON WEATHER REV, V132, P28 MELILLO JM, 1993, NATURE, V363, P234 NEW M, 2000, J CLIMATE, V13, P2217 NIYOGI D, 2000, THESIS NC STATE U RA NIYOGI D, 2002, WEATHER CLIMATE MODE, P132 NIYOGI DDS, 2002, J HYDROMETEOROL, V3, P39 PIELKE RA, 1974, MON WEATHER REV, V102, P115 PIELKE RA, 2001, REV GEOPHYS, V39, P151 PIELKE RA, 2003, P INDIAN NATL SCI AC, V69, P107 PIELKE RA, 2004, IGBP NEWSL, V59, P16 PIELKE RA, 2004, VEGETATION WATER HUM, P483 PIELKE RA, 2006, IN PRESS AGR FOR MET RAMANKUTTY N, 1999, GLOBAL BIOGEOCHEM CY, V13, P997 SAMPAT P, 2000, DEEP TROUBLE HIDDEN SEGAL M, 1989, MON WEATHER REV, V117, P809 SHAH T, 2000, GLOBAL GROUNDWATER S SHUTTLEWORTH WJ, 1985, Q J ROY METEOR SOC, V111, P839 SINGH DK, 2002, INT J WATER RESOUR D, V18, P563 VOROSMARTY CJ, 1998, J HYDROL, V207, P147 NR 33 TC 0 J9 GEOPHYS RES LETT PY 2006 PD JUL 21 VL 33 IS 14 GA 071DF UT ISI:000239577500006 ER PT J AU Haines, PE Tomlinson, RB Thom, BG TI Morphometric assessment of intermittently open/closed coastal lagoons in New South Wales, Australia SO ESTUARINE COASTAL AND SHELF SCIENCE LA English DT Article C1 WBM Ocean Australia, Broadmeadows, NSW 2292, Australia. Griffith Univ, Griffith Ctr Coastal Management, Southport, Qld 4215, Australia. NSW Dept Infrastruct Planning & Nat Resources, Sydney, NSW 2000, Australia. RP Haines, PE, WBM Ocean Australia, 126 Belford St, Broadmeadows, NSW 2292, Australia. AB This paper provides a framework for the assessment of the natural sensitivity of coastal lagoons to anthropogenic and other external inputs. The assessment framework is based on analysis and consideration of morphometric characteristics, and is demonstrated in this paper using eight example intermittently open coastal lagoons from New South Wales, Australia. The framework presented extends to a rudimentary classification of the eight example coastal lagoons, relative to the other 70 or so intermittently open coastal lagoons in NSW, which can be used to provide an indication of the relative importance of these lagoons with respect to future management, such as remediation or conservation. Morphometry describes the physical geographic characteristics of waterways such as coastal lagoons. Morphometric parameters are relatively easy to determine, as they essentially describe the physical and topographic features of waterways. Morphometry therefore provides a simple means to define the natural sensitivity, or vulnerability, of individual systems to external loads and other artificial (primarily anthropogenic) modifications. Morphometric parameters, such as waterway area, waterway volume, waterway shape and the proportion of time that the entrance is either open or closed to the ocean, have been used to define three separate factors that each measures one aspect of the natural sensitivity, or vulnerability, of a coastal lagoon to external loads and other inputs. The first factor (called the Evacuation Factor) is a measure of how efficiently a coastal lagoon can remove pollutants and other inputs through tidal flushing (i.e. the tidal flushing efficiency). The second factor (called the Dilution Factor) is a measure of the relative difference between the input loads from the catchment and the resident volume of the coastal lagoon. The third factor (called the Assimilation Factor) is a measure of the water level variability in a coastal lagoon, which can subsequently influence the extent and diversity of biological processes and their capacity to assimilate or accommodate external inputs. The morphometric-based assessment and classification framework presented in this paper could be applied to any country that contains a series of similar coastal lagoons that have intermittent connections to the ocean and which requires a relative assessment for prioritisation of future management and planning. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *OECD, 1993, 83 ENV MON BARNES RSK, 1980, COASTAL LAGOONS NATU BOYD R, 1992, SEDIMENT GEOL, V80, P139 DALRYMPLE RW, 1992, J SEDIMENT PETROL, V62, P1130 DIGBY MJ, 1999, 1699 CTR COAST MAN S DUNCAN HP, 1999, URBAN STORMWATER QUA, P10 DYE A, 2005, ESTUAR COAST SHELF S, V64, P357 DYE AH, 2005, MAR FRESHWATER RES, V56, P1055 DYER KR, 1997, ESTUARIES PHYSICAL I, P165 GRIFFITHS SP, 1999, INT J SALT LAKE RES, V8, P307 HARRIS PT, 2002, J SEDIMENT RES, V72, P858 JONES MV, 2005, ESTUAR COAST SHELF S, V64, P277 KJERFVE B, 1994, ELSEVIER OCEANOG SER, V60, P1 POLLARD DA, 1994, ESTUARIES, V17, P631 ROY PS, 1984, DEV COASTAL GEOMORPH, P99 ROY PS, 2001, ESTUAR COAST SHELF S, V53, P351 TESKE PR, 2001, HYDROBIOLOGIA, V464, P227 WHITFIELD AK, 1997, AQUAT CONSERV, V7, P1 NR 18 TC 0 J9 ESTUAR COAST SHELF SCI BP 321 EP 332 PY 2006 PD MAR VL 67 IS 1-2 GA 019RK UT ISI:000235854200027 ER PT J AU Davidson, O Halsnaes, K Huq, S Kok, M Metz, B Sokona, Y Verhagen, J TI The development and climate nexus: the case of sub-Saharan Africa SO CLIMATE POLICY LA English DT Article C1 Univ Cape Town, EDRC, ZA-7700 Rondebosch, South Africa. UNEP, Collaborating Ctr Energy & Environm, Roskilde, Denmark. IIED, London, England. Natl Inst Publ Hlth & Environm, RIVM, NL-3720 BA Bilthoven, Netherlands. ENDA, Environm & Dev Tiers Monde, Dakar, Senegal. Wageningen UR, Plant Res Int, Wageningen, Netherlands. RP Kok, M, Univ Cape Town, EDRC, ZA-7700 Rondebosch, South Africa. AB This paper explores an alternative approach to future climate policies in developing countries. Although climate change seems marginal compared to the pressing issues of poverty alleviation and economic development, it is becoming clear that the realisation of development goals may be hampered by climate change. However, development can be shaped in such a way as to achieve its goals and at the same time reduce vulnerability to climate change, thereby facilitating sustainable development that realises economic, social, local and global environmental goals. This approach has been coined the 'development first approach', in which a future climate regime should focus on development strategies with ancillary climate benefits and increase the capability of developing countries to implement these. This is anticipated to offer a possible positive way out of the current deadlock between North and South in the climate negotiations. First, elements are presented for an integrated approach to development and climate; second, the approach is elaborated for food and energy security in sub-Saharan Africa; and third, possibilities are outlined for international mechanisms to support such integrated development and climate strategies. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *AFR DEV BANK, 2003, POV CLIM CHANG RED V *AICHA, 2002, CUTT HUNG AFR SMALLH *EU, 2003, CLIM CHANG CONT DEV *FAO, 2002, STAT FOOD INS WORLD *IEA, 2002, WORLD EN OUTL 2002 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 *IPCC, 2001, CLIM CHANG 2001 SYNT *IUCN IISD SEI, 2003, LIV CLIM CHANG *NEPAD, 2001, NEW PARTN AFR DEV *OECD, 2001, SUST DEV CRIT ISS *OECD, 2002, DEV CLIM PROJ CONC P *OECD, 2002, INT RIO CONV DEV COO *OSCAL, 2001, EN SUST DEV LEAST DE *UN, 2002, JOH PLAN IMPL *UNDP, 2000, WORLD EN ASS EN CHAL *UNEP, 2002, UNEPGCSSVII2 *UNFCCC, 2001, FCCCSBI200114ADD1 *UNFCCC, 2002, FCCCSBI200216 *WORLD BANK, 2003, WORLD DEV REP 2003 S BEG N, 2002, CLIM POLICY, V2, P129 BENMOHAMED A, 2002, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V54, P327 BIAGINI B, 2000, CONFRONTING CLIMATE BREMAN H, 2001, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V11, P58 BRUINSMA J, 2003, WORLD AGR 2015 2030 CHANDLER W, 2002, CLIMATE CHANGE MITIG DALALCLAYTON B, 2002, SUSTAINABLE DEV STRA DASGUPTA, 1993, INQUIRY WELL BEING D DAVIDSON O, 2002, CLIMATE CHANGE SUSTA DAVIDSON O, 2002, THINK BIGGER ACT FAS DAVIDSON O, 2003, S AFRICAN ENERGY FUT DENTON F, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE SUSTA DODDS SEH, 2002, INT SUSTAINABLE DEV EVANS LT, 1998, FEEDING 10 BILLION P FARINELLI U, 1999, ENERGY TOOL SUSTAINA FUDUKAPARR S, 2002, CAPACITY DEV NEW SOL GOLDENBERG J, 1999, PROMOTING DEV WHILE GUPTA J, 2002, ASIAN DILEMMA DUTCH HALSNAES K, 2002, CLIMATE CHANGE SUSTA HALSNAES K, 2002, P SUST DEV CLIM CHAN HALSNAES K, 2003, LINKAGES DEV CLIMATE HUQ S, 2003, MAINSTREAMING ADAPTA JONES T, 2002, INT ENV AGREEMENTS P, V2, P389 JONGSCHAAP R, 2001, CLIMATE PREDICTION A, P109 KARAKEZI S, 2002, ENERG POLICY, V30, P915 KLEIN RJT, 2001, ADAPTATION CLIMATE C METZ B, 2002, CLIM POLICY, V2, P211 OTT HE, 2002, YB INT ENV LAW, V13 RINGIUS L, 2002, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V54, P471 SAMIENGO J, 2002, OPTIONS PROTECTING C SHUKLA PR, 2003, DEV CLIMATE ASSESSME SOKONA Y, 2003, DEV CLIMATE PROJECT WINKLER H, 2002, OPTIONS PROTECTING C NR 52 TC 0 J9 CLIM POLICY BP S97 EP S113 PY 2003 VL 3 GA 761BN UT ISI:000187879500008 ER PT J AU JONES, D TI ENVIRONMENTAL HAZARDS IN THE 1990S - PROBLEMS, PARADIGMS AND PROSPECTS SO GEOGRAPHY LA English DT Article RP JONES, D, UNIV LONDON LONDON SCH ECON & POLIT SCI,LONDON WC2A 2AE,ENGLAND. CR *ROY SOC, 1992, RISK AN PERC MAN BRYANT EA, 1991, NATURAL HAZARDS BURTON I, 1978, ENV HAZARD, V1, P1 CUNY FC, 1983, DISASTERS DEV HEWITT K, 1983, INTERPRETATIONS CALA JONES DKC, 1991, GLOBAL CHANGE CHALLE, P27 LANE FW, 1966, ELEMENTS RAGE MCCALL GJH, 1992, GEOHAZARDS NATURAL M SMITH K, 1992, ENV HAZARDS WHITTOW J, 1980, DISASTERS WIJKMAN A, 1984, NATURAL DISASTERS AC NR 11 TC 2 J9 GEOGRAPHY BP 161 EP 165 PY 1993 PD APR VL 78 IS 339 GA LC459 UT ISI:A1993LC45900009 ER PT J AU Bijker, WE TI American and Dutch coastal engineering: Differences in risk conception and differences in technological culture SO SOCIAL STUDIES OF SCIENCE LA English DT Editorial Material C1 Maastricht Univ, Fac Arts & Social Sci, NL-6200 MD Maastricht, Netherlands. RP Bijker, WE, Maastricht Univ, Fac Arts & Social Sci, POB 616, NL-6200 MD Maastricht, Netherlands. CR BIJKER EW, 1996, HIST HERITAGE COASTA, P390 BIJKER WE, 2002, TECHNOL CULT, V43, P569 BIJKER WE, 2006, CULTURES TECHNOLOGY, P52 DDOOLAARD A, 1948, ROLL BACK SEA NOVEL DDOOLAARD A, 1948, VERJAAGDE WATER FERGUSON HA, 1991, DIALOOG NORDZEE 2000 HUGHES TP, 1983, NETWORKS POWER ELECT KAIJSER A, 2002, TECHNOL CULT, V43, P521 MUKERJI C, 2007, SOC STUD SCI, V37, P127 VIERLINGH A, 1973, TRACTAET DYCKAGIE WETMORE JM, 2007, SOC STUD SCI, V37, P119 WIEGEL RL, 1996, HIST HERITAGE COASTA, P513 NR 12 TC 1 J9 SOC STUD SCI BP 143 EP 151 PY 2007 PD FEB VL 37 IS 1 GA 140UT UT ISI:000244532900013 ER PT J AU Huang, JCK TI Climate change and integrated coastal management: a challenge for small island nations SO OCEAN & COASTAL MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article C1 US Country Studies Program, Washington, DC 20585 USA. RP Huang, JCK, US Country Studies Program, 1000 Independence Ave,SW,PO-6, Washington, DC 20585 USA. AB The US Country Studies Program (US CSP) is parr of the United States' contribution to the objectives of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) by providing financial and technical support to developing and economically transitional countries to carry out their country studies in order to address issues on climate change The Country Studies results will be the scientific and technical bases for planning their climate change national action plans which will be implemented for future national communications and will eventually be required by the UNFCCC. Among the 56 countries supported by the US CSP there are strong oceanic and coastal vulnerability and adaptation projects in 41 country studies For the eight small island nations in the program, integrated coastal management (ICM) is the recommended adaptation strategy as the essential part of their climate change national action plans. This paper reviews the difficulties and challenges facing small island starts as they attempt to address climate change impacts on their environments, cultures, societies and economics. The paper draws on presentations and discussions taking place at a Regional Workshop for Pacific Island Nations taking place in Honolulu, Hawaii in September 1994 sponsored by the US Country Studies Program. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. 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UNIV S CAROLINA,DEPT GEOG,COLUMBIA,SC 29208. AB This article examines the increasing hazardousness of places as a consequence of natural disasters, technological failures and chronic environmental degradation on a global scale. The first part of the article describes the trends and impacts of environmental hazards, including their frequency, magnitude and damage on both a regional and an international scale. The article then details some of the confounding issues affecting hazard vulnerability including population change, urbanization, technological innovation, industrialization and wealth inequities. It concludes with a discussion on differential adjustments to environmental hazards and ways in which to improve the human condition. CR 1991, NY TIMES 1022 1995, NY TIMES 1006, A12 *INT FED RED CROSS, 1995, WORLD DIS REP *UN ENV PROGR, 1993, ENV DAT REP 1993 94 BALIKIE P, 1994, RISK NATURAL HAZARDS CUTTER SL, 1993, LIVIGN RISK GEOGRAPH CUTTER SL, 1994, ENV RISKS HAZARDS CUTTER SL, 1995, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V5, P181 DOMEISEN N, 1995, STOP DISASTERS, V34, P7 JOHNSON BB, 1987, SOCIAL CULTURAL CONS KASPERSON RE, 1988, RISK ANAL, V8, P177 KASPERSON RE, 1992, SOCIAL THEORIES RISK, P153 KATES RW, 1985, ISSUES SCI TECHNOL, V2, P46 KATES RW, 1992, ENVIRONMENT, V34, P25 KATES RW, 1992, ENVIRONMENT, V34, P4 KIRBY A, 1990, NOTHING FEAR RISKS H KRIMSKY S, 1992, SOCIAL THEORIES RISK LIVERMAN DM, 1990, UNDERSTANDING GLOBAL, V1, P27 MELLOR JW, 1988, ENVIRONMENT, V30, P28 MELLOR JW, 1988, ENVIRONMENT, V30, P8 MITCHELL JK, 1989, GEOGR REV, V79, P391 MITCHELL JK, 1990, NOTHING FEAR RISKS H, P131 ORIORDAN T, 1986, GEOGRAPHY RESOURCES, V2, P272 PALM RL, 1990, HAZARDS INTEGRATIVE SHOWALTER PS, 1993, 83 U COL NAT HAZ RES TOLBA MK, 1992, WORLD ENV 1972 1992 TURNER BL, 1990, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V1, P14 ZIEGLER DJ, 1983, TECHNOLOGIAL HAZARDS NR 28 TC 1 J9 INT SOC SCI J BP 525 EP & PY 1996 PD DEC VL 48 IS 4 GA VX676 UT ISI:A1996VX67600007 ER PT J AU Tol, RSJ TI Emission abatement versus development as strategies to reduce vulnerability to climate change: an application of FUND SO ENVIRONMENT AND DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS LA English DT Article C1 Univ Hamburg, Res Unit Sustainabil & Global Change, Hamburg, Germany. Ctr Marine & Atmospher Sci, Hamburg, Germany. Vrije Univ Amsterdam, Inst Environm Studies, NL-1081 HV Amsterdam, Netherlands. Carnegie Mellon Univ, Dept Engn & Publ Policy, Pittsburgh, PA 15213 USA. RP Tol, RSJ, Univ Hamburg, Res Unit Sustainabil & Global Change, Martinistr 52, Hamburg, Germany. AB Poorer countries are generally believed to be more vulnerable to climate change than richer countries because poorer countries are more exposed and have less adaptive capacity. This suggests that, in principle, there are two ways of reducing vulnerability to climate change: economic growth and greenhouse gas emission reduction. Using a complex climate change impact model, in which development is an important determinant of vulnerability, the hypothesis is tested whether development aid is more effective in reducing impacts than is emission abatement. The hypothesis is barely rejected for Asia but strongly accepted for Latin America and, particularly, Africa. The explanation for the difference is that development (aid) reduces vulnerabilities in some sectors (infectious diseases, water resources, agriculture) but increases vulnerabilities in others (cardiovascular diseases, energy consumption). However, climate change impacts are much higher in Latin America and Africa than in Asia, so that money spent on emission reduction for the sake of avoiding impacts in developing countries is better spent on vulnerability reduction in those countries. 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RP Shaw, DJB, Univ Birmingham, Sch Geog Earth & Environm Sci, Birmingham B15 2TT, W Midlands, England. AB The Russian geographical tradition of landscape science (landshaftovedenie) is analyzed with particular reference to its initiator, Lev Semenovich Berg (1876-1950). The differences between prevailing Russian and Western concepts of landscape in geography are discussed, and their common origins in German geographical thought in the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries are delineated. It is argued that the principal differences are accounted for by a number of factors, of which Russia's own distinctive tradition in environmental science deriving from the work of V. V. Dokuchaev (1846-1903), the activities of certain key individuals (such as Berg and C. O. Sauer), and the very different social and political circumstances in different parts of the world appear to be the most significant. At the same time it is noted that neither in Russia nor in the West have geographers succeeded in specifying an agreed and unproblematic understanding of landscape, or more broadly in promoting a common geographical conception of human-environment relationships. In light of such uncertainties, the latter part of the article argues for closer international links between the variant landscape traditions in geography as an important contribution to the quest for sustainability. 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2004, IZVESTIYA ROSSUSKO G, V4, P116 UHLIG H, 1973, WESEN LANDSCHAFT, P268 VEDENIN YA, 1997, OCHERKI GEOGRAFII IS VEDENIN YA, 2001, IZVESTIYA AKAD NAU G, V1, P7 VEDENIN YA, 2003, IZVESTIYA AKAD NAU G, V3, P7 VERNADSKII VI, 1998, BIOSPHERE VONHUMBOLDT A, 1849, COSMOS SKETCH PHYS D WINCHESTER HPM, 2003, LANDSCAPES WAYS IMAG ZABELIN IM, 1989, OCHERKI ISTORII GEOG ZAMYATIN DI, 2004, METAGEOGRAFIYA ZIMMERER K, 1996, CONCEPTS HUMAN GEOGR, P161 ZIMMERER KS, 1994, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V84, P108 ZUBAKOV VA, 2002, IZVESTIYA RUSSKOGO G, V134, P72 NR 134 TC 0 J9 ANN ASSN AMER GEOGR BP 111 EP 126 PY 2007 PD MAR VL 97 IS 1 GA 144DM UT ISI:000244775700007 ER PT J AU Connor, SE Thomas, I TI Sediments as archives of industrialisation: Evidence of atmospheric pollution in coastal wetlands of southern Sydney, Australia SO WATER AIR AND SOIL POLLUTION LA English DT Article C1 Univ Melbourne, Sch Anthropol Geog & Environm Studies, Parkville, Vic 3052, Australia. RP Connor, SE, Univ Melbourne, Sch Anthropol Geog & Environm Studies, Parkville, Vic 3052, Australia. AB The history of heavy metal pollution in southern Sydney was reconstructed from wetland sediments using chemical analysis. Seven wetlands along the Pacific coast were examined for present day concentrations of acid-extractable Cd, Cu, Fe, Pb and Zn. Additionally, four of these sites were cored in order to assess past levels of these metal contaminants, changes in organic content and magnetic susceptibility variations. The low nutrient status and closed catchments of the study sites suggested that the pollutants were predominantly derived from atmospheric sources. Surficial sediments were enriched with Cd, Cu, Fe, Pb and Zn levels 5.0, 16.4, 22.7, 8.2 and 22.5 times baseline levels, respectively. In some cases, the concentrations of trace metals were in excess of environmentally acceptable levels. The results show a strong spatial association between sources and levels of pollutants, and the increase in metals levels in sedimentary records corresponds well to documentary historical evidence. This study demonstrates the utility of coastal wetlands in the reconstruction of atmospheric pollution histories, and their particular vulnerability to contamination from airborne pollutants in urban areas. 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Univ Catholique Louvain, Dept Geog, B-1348 Louvain, Belgium. Silsoe Res Inst, Biomath Grp, Silsoe MK45 4HS, Beds, England. RP Berry, PM, Univ Oxford, Ctr Environm, Environm Change Inst, S Parks Rd,Dyson Perrins Bldg, Oxford OX1 3QY, England. AB The term vulnerability has been used in a variety of contexts, including climate change impact assessment. In this paper those issues relevant to climate change impacts on agriculture and species are discussed. Outputs from models are used to assess the vulnerability of fanners and species to climate and socio-economic change by estimating their sensitivity and capacity to adapt to external factors as a means of identifying what causes the differences in their vulnerability. The results showed that the vulnerability of both farmers and species is dependent on the scenario under consideration. In agriculture, it is the socio-economic scenarios that particularly lead to different patterns of intensification, extensification and abandonment. For species, vulnerability is more related to the climate change scenarios. In both cases, the adaptation options and potential were associated with the different socio-economic futures and policy intervention. The conceptual linking of the two sectors shows that impacts in the agriculture sector and consequent adaptation could have a significant effect on the adaptation potential of species. This demonstrates the importance of cross-sectoral assessments of vulnerability and highlights the importance of sectoral integration in policy development and implementation. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 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Duke Univ, Dept Biol, Durham, NC USA. Univ New Mexico, Dept Biol, Albuquerque, NM 87131 USA. Princeton Univ, Dept Ecol & Evolutionary Biol, Princeton, NJ 08544 USA. Ecol Soc Amer, Off Sci Programs, Washington, DC 20006 USA. David & Lucile Packard Fdn, Los Altos, CA USA. US Geol Survey, CERC, Columbia, MO USA. Johns Hopkins Univ, Dept Hist Sci & Technol, Baltimore, MD USA. Univ Calgary, Kananaskis Field Stn, Calgary, AB, Canada. AC, Inst Ecol, Dept Ecol Funct, Xalapa, Veracruz, Mexico. Stanford Univ, Hopkins Marine Stn, Dept Biol Sci, Pacific Grove, CA 93950 USA. Inst Ecosyst Studies, Millbrook, NY 12545 USA. Univ Michigan, Dept Ecol & Evolutionary Biol, Ann Arbor, MI 48109 USA. Univ Calif Santa Barbara, Dept Ecol Evolut & Marine Biol, Santa Barbara, CA 93106 USA. Univ Colorado, Dept Ecol & Evolutionary Biol, Boulder, CO 80309 USA. Univ Colorado, Inst Arctic & Alpine Res, Boulder, CO 80309 USA. Univ Wisconsin, Dept Zool, Madison, WI 53706 USA. RP Palmer, MA, Univ Maryland, Dept Entomol, College Pk, MD 20742 USA. AB Ecological science has contributed greatly to our understanding of the natural world and the impact of humans on that world. Now, we need to refocus the discipline towards research that ensures a future in which natural systems and the humans they include coexist on a more sustainable planet. Acknowledging that managed ecosystems and intensive exploitation of resources define our future, ecologists must play a greatly expanded role in communicating their research and influencing policy and decisions that affect the environment. To accomplish this, they will have to forge partnerships at scales and in forms they have not traditionally used. These alliances must act within three visionary areas: enhancing the extent to which decisions are ecologically informed; advancing innovative ecological research directed at the sustainability of the planet; and stimulating cultural changes within the science itself, thereby building a forward-looking and international ecology. We recommend: (1) a research initiative to enhance research project development, facilitate large-scale experiments and data collection, and link science to solutions; (2) procedures that will improve interactions among researchers, managers, and decision makers; and (3) efforts to build public understanding of the links between ecosystem services and humans. 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CR KASPERSON JX, 1995, REGIONS RISK, V1, P1 TURNER BL, 1993, POPULATION GROWTH AG TURNER BL, 1994, AMBIO, V23, P91 NR 3 TC 0 J9 ANN ASSN AMER GEOGR BP 729 EP 731 PY 1994 PD DEC VL 84 IS 4 GA QA066 UT ISI:A1994QA06600016 ER PT J AU Manson, S TI Land use in the southern Yucatan peninsular region of Mexico: Scenarios of population and institutional change SO COMPUTERS ENVIRONMENT AND URBAN SYSTEMS LA English DT Article C1 Univ Minnesota, Dept Geog, Minneapolis, MN 55455 USA. RP Manson, S, Univ Minnesota, Dept Geog, 414 Social Sci,267,19th Ave S, Minneapolis, MN 55455 USA. AB Land-use and land-cover change, human activity that results in altered land-use systems and surface features, defines the environmental and socioeconomic sustainability of communities around the globe. It is a key response to global environmental change in addition to being both a key cause and medium of this change. This article examines an application of the Southern Yucatdn Peninsular Region Integrated Assessment (SYPRIA), a scenario-based spatially explicit model designed to examine and project land use in Mexico. SYPRIA combines Geographic Information Systems (GIS) with agent-based modeling, cellular modeling, and genetic programming. The application examined here explores the effects on land-use and land-cover projections of scenarios that rely on varying assumptions pertaining to population growth, land-use trends, role of agrarian technology, and effects of resource institutions. This work also highlights the importance of understanding the many factors influencing land use, particularly population, different production systems, and the contextual nature of resource institutions in determining the nature of land use. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 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SO BULLETIN OF ENGINEERING GEOLOGY AND THE ENVIRONMENT LA English DT Review C1 Int Inst Geoinformat Sci & Earth Observ, ITC, Enschede, Netherlands. Univ Utrecht, Fac Geosci, Utrecht, Netherlands. RP van Westen, CJ, Int Inst Geoinformat Sci & Earth Observ, ITC, Enschede, Netherlands. AB The quantification of risk has gained importance in many disciplines, including landslide studies. The literature on landslide risk assessment illustrates the developments which have taken place in the last decade and that quantitative risk assessment is feasible for geotechnical engineering on a site investigation scale and the evaluation of linear features (e.g., pipelines, roads). However, the generation of quantitative risk zonation maps for regulatory and development planning by local authorities still seems a step too far, especially at medium scales (1:10,000-1:50,000). This paper reviews the problem of attempting to quantify landslide risk over larger areas, discussing a number of difficulties related to the generation of landslide inventory maps including information on date, type and volume of the landslide, the determination of its spatial and temporal probability, the modelling of runout and the assessment of landslide vulnerability. An overview of recent developments in the different approaches to landslide hazard and risk zonation at medium scales is given. The paper concludes with a number of new advances and challenges for the future, such as the use of very detailed topographic data, the generation of event-based landslide inventory maps, the use of these maps in spatial-temporal probabilistic modelling and the use of land use and climatic change scenarios in deterministic modelling. 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V24, P3523 ZEZERE JL, 2004, LANDSLIDES EVALUATIO, V1, P117 ZHOU G, 2003, ENG GEOL, V68, P373 NR 121 TC 0 J9 BULL ENG GEOL ENVIRON BP 167 EP 184 PY 2006 PD MAY VL 65 IS 2 GA 048JC UT ISI:000237942400005 ER PT J AU Thompson, M TI The new world disorder: Is environmental security the cure? SO MOUNTAIN RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT LA English DT Article C1 Musgrave Inst, London N5 2UX, England. Univ Bergen, Bergen, Norway. Norwegian Res Ctr Org & Management, Bergen, Norway. RP Thompson, M, Musgrave Inst, 52 Northolme Rd, London N5 2UX, England. AB Environmental security, as currently conceived., is rooted in the assumption that it is increasing populations, combined with static or declining resource bases, that are the real cause of most current and future conflicts. This is simply the restatement, on the global level, of a local theory-The Theory of Himalayan Environmental Degradation-which we already know is invalid. This does not mean that the environment is irrelevant to security, and that human ingenuity will always create resources sufficient for us to resolve any crisis: that is an equally invalid line of reasoning. The rejection of both these mutually contradictory orthodoxies, and their replacement by the more discerning, reflexive, and socially-informed understanding that has been pioneered by those responsible for the demolition of the Theory of Himalayan Environmental Degradation, is the key to a properly founded and useful notion of environmental security. CR *DA, 1997, NAT RES RES WORK DEV AUSUBEL JH, 1996, DAEDALUS, V125, P1 BELLAMY C, INDEPENDENT 1029 CHAPMAN G, 1995, WATER QUEST SUSTAINA ECKHOLM E, 1976, LOSING GROUND ENV ST EHRLICH PR, 1971, SCIENCE, V171, P1212 HABERL H, 1997, AMBIO, V26, P143 IVES JD, 1989, HIMALAYAN DILEMMA RE KAPLAN R, 1994, ATLANTIC MONTHLY, V279, P45 LOVELOCK JE, 1979, GAIA NEW LOOK LIFE E MEADOWS DH, 1992, LIMITS GLOBAL COLLAP PRICE MF, 1997, GLOBAL ECOL BIOGEOGR, V6, P77 RENNER M, 1996, FIGHTING SURVIVAL EN RIDLEY M, 1997, ULTIMATE RESOURCES, V2 SIMON J, 1981, ULTIMATE RESOURCE SIMON J, 1997, ULTIMATE RESOURCE, P2 THOMPSON M, 1986, UNCERTAINTY HIMALAYA THOMPSON M, 1997, GEOGR J 2, V163, P141 TIFFIN M, 1994, MORE PEOPLE LESS ERO NR 19 TC 1 J9 MT RES DEV BP 117 EP 122 PY 1998 PD MAY VL 18 IS 2 GA ZT485 UT ISI:000074092600002 ER PT J AU Geerts, S Raes, D Garcia, M Del Castillo, C Buytaert, W TI Agro-climatic suitability mapping for crop production in the Bolivian Altiplano: A case study for quinoa SO AGRICULTURAL AND FOREST METEOROLOGY LA English DT Article C1 Katholieke Univ Leuven, Div Soil & Water Management, B-3001 Louvain, Belgium. Univ Mayor San Andres, Fac Agron, La Paz, Bolivia. RP Geerts, S, Katholieke Univ Leuven, Div Soil & Water Management, Celestijnenlaan 200 E, B-3001 Louvain, Belgium. AB An agro-climatic suitability library for crop production was generated by using climatic data sets from 20 to 33 years for 41 meteorological stations in the Bolivian Altiplano. Four agro-climatic indicators for the region were obtained by validated calculation procedures. The reference evapotranspiration, the length of the rainy season, the severity of intra-seasonal dry spells and the monthly frost risks were determined for each of the stations. To get a geographical coverage, the point data were subsequently entered in a GIS environment and interpolated using ordinary kriging, with or without incorporating anisotropy. The presented case study focuses on quinoa (Chenopodium quinoa Willd.), an important crop in the region that is cultivated during the short and irregular rainfall season and that is well adapted to the frequent occurrence of drought and frost. The GIS library was used to mark zones where deficit irrigation could improve quinoa production. With a data query, zones were delimited where the irrigation can be useful to stretch the length of the growing season beyond the limits of the rainy season and/or to mitigate intra-seasonal dry spells. Determined net irrigation requirements were used to assess the vulnerability of the delineated zones. Two regions with a high vulnerability, a severe drought risk and an acceptable frost risk are the eastern region of the Altiplano and the inter-salt depression region in the south. Together, they account for around one-third of the Altiplano area. In 1 year out of 2, irrigation in these regions can strongly improve crop production. The use of irrigation in other regions of the Altiplano will be less beneficial either because the irrigation requirements are low (region around Lake Titicaca), or because the frost risk is too high (the dry west, the south-west, and the region in between Lake Poopo and the Uyuni salt depression). Apart from the presented application, a general view on the climatic system of the Altiplano could be deduced from the library. The proposed routine in this study yielded a straightforward method to deal with large sets of detailed climatic information and to link them with practical agricultural advice. By redefining query limits and incorporating other data, the GIS library can be used for impact assessments of other agricultural practices and for studying the effects of climate change and of the El Nino Southern Oscillation on quinoa production in the delineated zones. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. CR *CIP, 2005, DIVA GIS SOFTW MAN F *FAO UN, 1997, FAO LAND WAT DIG MED, V1 *INE, 2003, AN EST 2003 *USGS, 2005, GIS DAT BOL ALLEN R, 1998, 5L FAO BARRIENTOS E, 2004, P 8 ESA C EUR AGR GL, P879 BUISHAND TA, 1982, J HYDROL, V58, P11 CARRASCO E, 1997, FROST TOLERANT POTAT, P227 DUPORTAL D, 1993, ETUDES GELEES ATIPLA ENGLISH M, 1990, J IRRIG DRAIN E-ASCE, V116, P399 FOX P, 2000, PHYS CHEM EARTH PT B, V25, P289 FRANCOIS C, 1999, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V95, P113 GARCIA M, 2003, AGR WATER MANAGE, V60, P119 GARCIA M, 2003, THESIS KU LEUVEN BEL GARCIA M, 2004, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V125, P67 GARREAUD R, 2003, PALAEOGEOGR PALAEOCL, V194, P5 GEERTS S, 2004, THESIS KATHOLIEKE U GOMMES RA, 1983, 45 FAO GOOVAERTS P, 2000, J HYDROL, V228, P113 HARGREAVES GH, 1982, J IRRIGATION DRAINAG, V108, P225 HIJMANS RJ, 1999, ESTIMATING FROST RIS, P373 HIJMANS RJ, 2003, AGR SYST, V76, P895 HOOGENBOOM G, 2000, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V103, P137 ISAAKS EH, 1989, INTRO APPL GEOSTATIS JACOBSEN SE, 2001, MEMORIAS PRIMER TALL JACOBSEN SE, 2003, FOOD REV INT, V19, P99 JACOBSEN SE, 2004, EUR J AGRON, V22, P131 MALCZEWSKI J, 2004, PROG PLANN 1, V62, P3 PEREIRA LS, 2002, AGR WATER MANAGE, V57, P175 RAES D, 1996, HYDRAULIC ENG SOFTWA, V6, P525 RAES D, 2004, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V125, P177 RAES D, 2005, BUDGET SOIL WATER SA RAES D, 2006, AGR WATER MANAGE, V81, P335 SIVAKUMAR MVK, 1988, AGR FOR METEOROL, V42, P295 SMITH M, 2000, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V103, P99 STERN RD, 1982, EXP AGR, V18, P223 VACHER JJ, 1998, AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON, V68, P99 ZHANG HP, 1999, AGR WATER MANAGE, V38, P195 NR 38 TC 0 J9 AGR FOREST METEOROL BP 399 EP 412 PY 2006 PD OCT 12 VL 139 IS 3-4 GA 098PW UT ISI:000241536300017 ER PT J AU Vincent, K TI Uncertainty in adaptive capacity and the importance of scale SO GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS LA English DT Article C1 Univ E Anglia, Sch Environm Sci, Tyndall Ctr Climate Change Res, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. RP Vincent, K, Univ E Anglia, Sch Environm Sci, Tyndall Ctr Climate Change Res, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. AB Understanding different adaptive capacities is a prerequisite for targeting interventions to reduce the adverse impacts of climate change. Indicators and indices are common tools in this process, but their construction embodies many uncertainties, not least of which is their scale specificity. This paper describes the development of two empirical adaptive capacity indices for use at different scales of analysis: a national index for cross-country comparison in Africa and a household index for cross-household comparison in a village in Limpopo province, South Africa. Explaining the decisions made at each stage of construction illuminates the degree of uncertainty involved when assessing adaptive capacity, and how this uncertainty is compounded when looking across different scales of analysis. It concludes that the central elements of adaptive capacity, based on institutional collective response and the availability of and access to resources, are common at different scales, although the structure of each index is scale-specific. Hence the findings of these apparently irreconcilable scales of analysis converge to demonstrate points of leverage for policy intervention to raise resilience and the capacity to adapt to the risks posed by climate change. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 ADGER WN, 1999, MITIG ADAPT STRAT GL, V4, P253 ADGER WN, 1999, WORLD DEV, V27, P249 ADGER WN, 2003, ECON GEOGR, V79, P387 ADGER WN, 2003, PROGR DEV STUDIES, V3, P179 ADGER WN, 2004, 7 U E ANGL TYND CTR ADGER WN, 2005, CR GEOSCI, V337, P399 AGNEW J, 1997, GEOGRAPHIES EC BRAY F, 1986, RICE EC TECHNOLOGY D BRENKERT AL, 2005, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V72, P57 BRIGUGLIO L, 1995, WORLD DEV, V23, P1615 BROOKS N, 2003, 26 TYND CTR CLIM CHA BROOKS N, 2005, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V15, P151 BRYCESON DF, 2002, WORLD DEV, V30, P725 BURTON I, 1978, ENV HAZARD, V1, P1 CANNON T, 1994, DISASTERS DEV ENV, P13 CASTELLS M, 1996, RISE NETWORK SOC CASTELLS M, 1998, END MILLENNIUM COLLIER P, 1999, J ECON PERSPECT, V13, P3 CROWARDS T, 1999, IN PRESS EC VULNERAB DIAMOND J, 2004, NATURE, V429, P616 DOVIE DBK, 2003, AGR SYST, V76, P337 DOW KM, 1992, GEOFORUM, V23, P417 DOWNING TE, 2001, UNEP POLICY SERIES DURLAUF S, 2002, ECON J, V112, P459 EASTER C, 1999, ROUND TABLE, V351, P403 ELLIS F, 1998, J DEV STUD, V35, P1 FUSSEL HM, 2006, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V75, P301 HADDAD BM, 2005, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V15, P165 HOUGHTON J, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 JOLLANDS N, 2003, US SOC EC EC C SAR S KALY U, 1999, 275 SOPAC KALY U, 1999, 299 SOPAC KALY U, 2000, 306 SOPAC KATES RW, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P5 KAUFFMAN KD, 2004, AIDS S AFRICA SOCIAL, P17 KELLY PM, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V47, P325 KING BH, 2005, AREA, V37, P64 KRISHNA A, 2001, WORLD DEV, V29, P925 LEICHENKO RM, 2002, MITIGATION ADAPTATIO, V7, P1 LURIE MN, 2004, MIGRATION POLICY SER, V31 MILANOVIC B, 2003, WORLD DEV, V31, P667 MOLLER V, 1996, SO AFRICAN J GERONTO, V5, P9 MOSS RM, 2000, VULNERABILITY CLIMAT NIEMEIJER D, 2002, ENVIRON SCI POLICY, V5, P91 OBRIEN KL, 2004, 200404 CICERO OBRIEN KL, 2004, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V64, P193 OBRIEN KL, 2000, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V10, P221 PALDAM M, 2000, J ECON SURV, V14, P629 PELLING M, 2001, ENV HAZARDS, V3, P49 PELLING M, 2003, VULNERABILITY CITIES PELLING M, 2005, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V15, P308 PRETTY J, 2001, WORLD DEV, V29, P209 PUTNAM RD, 1993, MAKING DEMOCRACY WOR REARDON T, 1988, WORLD DEV, V16, P1065 SACHS JD, 1997, J AFR ECON, V6, P335 SCHIPPER EL, 2006, RECIEL, V15, P82 SMIT B, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, P877 SMITH B, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P223 SWINTON SM, 1988, HUM ECOL, V16, P123 TOMPKINS EL, 2005, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V15, P139 VANDERVLIET V, 2004, AIDS S AFRICA SOCIAL, P48 VINCENT K, 2004, 56 U E ANGL TYND CTR WILBANKS TJ, 1999, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V43, P601 WOOLCOCK M, 2002, WORKSH UND BUILD SOC YOHE GW, 2002, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V12, P25 YOHE GW, 2001, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V49, P247 NR 67 TC 1 J9 GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANGE BP 12 EP 24 PY 2007 PD FEB VL 17 IS 1 GA 149YG UT ISI:000245182200004 ER PT J AU Gritti, ES Smith, B Sykes, MT TI Vulnerability of Mediterranean Basin ecosystems to climate change and invasion by exotic plant species SO JOURNAL OF BIOGEOGRAPHY LA English DT Article C1 Lund Univ, Dept Phys Geog & Ecosyst Anal, Geobiosphere Sci Ctr, S-22362 Lund, Sweden. RP Gritti, ES, Lund Univ, Dept Phys Geog & Ecosyst Anal, Geobiosphere Sci Ctr, Solvegatan 12, S-22362 Lund, Sweden. AB Aim To assess at a broad scale the vulnerability of Mediterranean vegetation to alien plant invasion under different climatic and disturbance scenarios. Location We simulated the vegetation biogeography and dynamics on five of the main islands of the Mediterranean Basin: Mallorca, Corsica, Sardinia, Crete and Lesvos. Methods We used LPJ-GUESS, a generalized ecosystem model based on dynamic processes describing establishment, competition, mortality and ecosystem biogeochemistry. We simulated the vegetation distribution and dynamics using a set of plant functional types (PFTs) based on bioclimatic and physiological parameters, which included tree and shrub PFTs defined especially for the Mediterranean. Additionally, two invasive PFTs, an invasive tree type and an invasive herb type, were defined and used to estimate the vulnerability to invasion of a range of different ecosystems. The model was used to simulate climate changes and associated changes in atmospheric [CO2] to 2050 according to two Special Report on Emissions Scenarios climate scenarios (A1Fi and B1) combined with mean disturbance intervals of 3 and 40 years. Results The simulations and scenarios showed that the effect of climate change alone is likely to be negligible in many of the simulated ecosystems, although not all. The simulated progression of an invasion was highly dependent on the initial ecosystem composition and local environmental conditions, with a particular contrast between drier and wetter parts of the Mediterranean, and between mountain and coastal areas. The rate of ecosystem disturbance was the main factor controlling susceptibility to invasion, strongly influencing vegetation development on the shorter time scale. Main conclusions Further invasion into Mediterranean island ecosystems is likely to be an increasing problem: our simulations predict that, in the longer term, almost all the ecosystems will be dominated by exotic plants irrespective of disturbance rates. CR *CIESIN IFPRI WRI, 2000, GRIDD POP WORLD VERS *COUNC EUR, 1987, MAP NAT VEG MEMB COU *IPCC, 2000, EM SCEN 2000 SPEC RE *MED FOR NGO, 1999, MAL DECL BIOD SUST D *NAT RES COUNC, 2002, PRED INV NON SPEC US ADAMIK KJ, 1955, TAPPI, V38, A150 ADAMIK KJ, 1957, TAPPI, V40, P522 ALVAREZ ME, 2002, ECOL APPL, V12, P1434 APOSTOLOPOULOS Y, 2001, MEDITERRANEAN TOURIS BADECK FW, 2001, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V51, P307 BELCHER JW, 1989, J RANGE MANAGE, V42, P172 BOOM A, 2002, PALAEOGEOGR PALAEOCL, V177, P151 CARLQUIST S, 1974, ISLAND BIOL CARLTON JT, 1979, THESIS U CALIFORNIA CODY ML, 1978, ANNU REV ECOL SYST, V9, P265 COSTELLO DA, 2000, BIOL CONSERV, V96, P113 COX CB, 1993, BIOGEOGRAPHY ECOLOGI CROOKS JA, 2002, OIKOS, V97, P153 DAMESIN C, 1998, ACTA OECOL, V19, P195 DRAKE BG, 1997, ANNU REV PLANT PHYS, V48, P609 DUKES JS, 1999, TRENDS ECOL EVOL, V14, P135 FOSBERG FR, 1948, INSECTS HAWAII, V1, P107 GERTEN D, 2004, J HYDROL, V286, P249 GIVNISH TJ, 2002, SILVA FENN, V36, P703 GORDON C, 2000, CLIM DYNAM, V16, P147 GORDON DR, 1998, ECOL APPL, V8, P975 GREUTER W, 1991, BOT CHRON, V10, P63 GRIME JP, 1965, NATURE, V208, P161 HEIMANN M, 1998, GLOBAL BIOGEOCHEM CY, V12, P1 HEYWOOD VH, 1995, ECOLOGIA MEDITERRANE, V20, P11 HICKLER T, 2004, ECOLOGY, V2, P519 HILL J, 1998, J ARID ENVIRON, V39, P165 HODKINSON DJ, 1997, J APPL ECOL, V34, P1484 HOWARD TG, 2004, BIOL INVASIONS, V6, P393 HU SY, 1979, ARNOLDIA, V39, P29 JALAS J, 1972, ATLAS FLORAE EUCOPAE JALAS J, 1973, ATLAS FLORAE EUCOPAE JALAS J, 1976, ATLAS FLORAE EUCOPAE JALAS J, 1979, ATLAS FLORAE EUCOPAE JALAS J, 1980, ATLAS FLORAE EUCOPAE JALAS J, 1983, ATLAS FLORAE EUCOPAE JALAS J, 1986, ATLAS FLORAE EUCOPAE JALAS J, 1989, ATLAS FLORAE EUCOPAE JALAS J, 1991, ATLAS FLORAE EUCOPAE JALAS J, 1994, ATLAS FLORAE EUCOPAE JALAS J, 1996, ATLAS FLORAE EUCOPAE JALAS J, 1999, ATLAS FLORAE EUCOPAE JORDAN GJ, 1997, BOT J LINN SOC, V123, P45 KENNEDY TA, 2002, NATURE, V417, P636 LAKE JC, 2004, BIOL CONSERV, V117, P215 LITTLE S, 1974, AGR HDB, V450, P201 LOCKHART DG, 1996, TOURISM MANAGE, V17, P382 LUCHT W, 2002, SCIENCE, V296, P1687 MACDONALD IAW, 1988, BIOL CONSERV, V44, P37 MACDONALD IAW, 1989, SCOPE SERIES, V37, P215 MACK RN, 2000, ECOL APPL, V10, P689 MEDAIL F, 1997, ANN MO BOT GARD, V84, P112 MERGEN F, 1959, BOT GAZ, V121, P32 MITCHELL TD, 2004, 55 TYND CTR MOONEY HA, 1981, ECOSYSTEMS WORLD, V11, P249 MORALES P, 2005, IN PRESS GLOBAL CHAN NAEEM S, 2000, OIKOS, V91, P97 NEW M, 1999, J CLIMATE, V12, P829 NEW M, 2000, J CLIMATE, V13, P2217 OSBORNE CP, 2000, GLOB CHANGE BIOL, V6, P445 PENG CH, 1998, QUATERNARY SCI REV, V17, P719 PENUELAS J, 2003, GLOBAL CHANGE BIOL, V9, P131 PIMENTEL D, 2000, BIOSCIENCE, V50, P53 POPE VD, 2000, CLIM DYNAM, V16, P123 PYSEK P, 1998, J BIOGEOGR, V25, P155 QUEZEL P, 1985, GEOBOTANY, V7, P9 RICHARDSON DM, 2000, DIVERS DISTRIB, V6, P93 ROMAO C, 1996, 15 EUR COMM EUR DG X SABATE S, 2002, FOREST ECOL MANAG, V162, P23 SITCH S, 2003, GLOBAL CHANGE BIOL, V9, P161 SMITH B, 2001, GLOBAL ECOL BIOGEOGR, V10, P621 STJOHN H, 1973, LIST SUMMARY FLOWERI, V1 SUEHS CM, 2003, PLANT INVASIONS ECOL, P247 SUEHS CM, 2004, HEREDITY, V92, P31 THONICKE K, 2001, GLOBAL ECOL BIOGEOGR, V10, P661 TILMAN D, 1997, ECOLOGY, V78, P81 TRABAUD L, 1987, PLANT RESPONSE STRES, P607 VENEVSKY S, 2002, GLOBAL CHANGE BIOL, V8, P984 VERMEIJ GJ, 1996, BIOL CONSERV, V78, P3 VITOUSEK PM, 1997, NEW ZEAL J ECOL, V21, P1 WEBER C, 2003, REMOTE SENS ENVIRON, V86, P341 WILLIAMSON M, 1996, ECOLOGY, V77, P1661 NR 87 TC 1 J9 J BIOGEOGR BP 145 EP 157 PY 2006 PD JAN VL 33 IS 1 GA 999TG UT ISI:000234412800014 ER PT J AU Baranzini, A Chesney, M Morisset, J TI The impact of possible climate catastrophes on global warming policy SO ENERGY POLICY LA English DT Article C1 Univ Geneva, Fac Econ & Social Sci, CH-1211 Geneva 4, Switzerland. Swiss Fed Inst Technol, Res Lab Econ & Management Environm, CH-1015 Lausanne, Switzerland. Grp HEC, Dept Finance, F-78350 Jouy En Josas, France. Int Finance Corp, Foreign Investment Advisory Serv, Washington, DC 20433 USA. World Bank, Washington, DC 20433 USA. RP Baranzini, A, Univ Geneva, Fac Econ & Social Sci, 40 Bld Pont Arve, CH-1211 Geneva 4, Switzerland. AB Recent studies on global warming have introduced the inherent uncertainties associated with the costs and benefits of climate policies and have often shown that abatement policies are likely to be less aggressive or postponed in comparison to those resulting from traditional cost-benefit analyses (CBA). Yet, those studies have failed to include the possibility of sudden climate catastrophes. The aim of this paper is to account simultaneously for possible continuous and discrete damages resulting from global warming, and to analyse their implications on the optimal path of abatement policies. Our approach is related to the new literature on investment under uncertainty, and relies on some recent developments of the real option in which we incorporated negative jumps (climate catastrophes) in the stochastic process corresponding to the net benefits associated with the abatement policies. The impacts of continuous and discrete climatic risks can therefore be considered separately. Our numerical applications lead to two main conclusions: (i) gradual, continuous uncertainty in the global warming process is likely to delay the adoption of abatement policies as found in previous studies, with respect to the standard CBA; however (ii) the possibility of climate catastrophes accelerates the implementation of these policies as their net discounted benefits increase significantly. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. CR 1998, SUISSE REASSURANCES *IPCC, 1990, SCI ASSESSMENT CLIMA *IPCC, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995 *IPCC, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 ARROW KJ, 1990, IPCC REPORT WORKING, P52 BARANZINI A, 1995, 1417 WORLD BANK POL BARONEADESI G, 1987, J FINANC, V42, P301 BATES DS, 1991, J FINANC, V46, P1009 BIRGE JR, 1996, ENERGY J, V17, P79 BLACK F, 1973, J POLITICAL EC, V81, P637 CARRARO C, 1993, J PUBLIC ECON, V52, P309 CHESNEY M, 2002, IN PRESS J EC DYNAMI CHESNEY M, 2002, VALUATION AM OPTION CLINE WR, 1992, EC GLOBAL WARMING DIXIT A, 1992, J ECON PERSPECT, V6, P107 FALK I, 1993, J ENVIRON ECON MANAG, V25, P76 FISCHER BS, 1996, IPCC 2 ASSESSMENT RE, P397 GJERDE J, 1999, RESOUR ENERGY ECON, V21, P289 GOLDEMBERG J, 1996, IPCC 2 ASSESSMENT RE, P17 HANEMANN WM, 1989, J ENVIRON ECON MANAG, V16, P23 KOLSTAD CD, 1994, ENERG POLICY, V22, P771 MADDISON D, 1995, ENERG POLICY, V23, P337 MCDONALD R, 1986, Q J ECON, V101, P707 MUNASINGHE M, 1996, IPCC 2 ASSESSMENT RE, P149 NORDHAUS WD, 1991, AM ECON REV, V81, P146 NORDHAUS WD, 1991, ECON J, V101, P920 NORDHAUS WD, 1993, J ECON PERSPECT, V7, P11 NORDHAUS WD, 1994, MANAGING GLOBAL COMM PEARCE DW, 1996, IPCC 2 ASSESSMENT RE, P180 PECK SC, 1993, RESOUR ENERGY ECON, V15, P71 PINDYCK RS, 1991, J ECON LIT, V29, P1110 PINDYCK RS, 1999, IRREVERSIBILITY TIMI REYNOLDS P, 1999, TIME 0222, P54 SCHELLING TC, 1995, ENERG POLICY, V23, P395 SCHIMMELPFENNIG D, 1995, ENERG ECON, V17, P311 TOL RSJ, 1999, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V41, P351 TSUR Y, 1996, J ECON DYN CONTROL, V20, P1289 YOHE GW, 1996, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V2, P87 ZHANG XL, 1995, MATH COMPUT SIMULAT, V38, P151 NR 39 TC 2 J9 ENERG POLICY BP 691 EP 701 PY 2003 PD JUN VL 31 IS 8 GA 660CC UT ISI:000181815400001 ER PT J AU Sapountzaki, K TI Coping with seismic vulnerability: small manufacturing firms in western Athens SO DISASTERS LA English DT Article C1 Harokopion Univ Athens, Dept Geog, Athens, Greece. RP Sapountzaki, K, Harokopion Univ Athens, Dept Geog, Athens, Greece. AB This paper attempts to contribute to international discourse on the responsibility of macro structures ( economic and political) and private agencies for the production and distribution of vulnerability. It does so by focusing on an individual economic entity, small manufacturing firms (SMFs), in a specific location, western Athens, Greece. By evaluating the losses that SMFs sustained in the earthquake of 7 September 1999, the paper points to variations in vulnerability levels among such firms and highlights the `sources' of vulnerability they confront. Furthermore, the SMF recovery cycle is systematically monitored in parallel with relevant public policies and state reactions to private recovery methods. The analysis illustrates processes that externalise recovery costs, alter the relationship between physical and socio-economic vulnerability and shift the vulnerability load from macro structures to individual agencies or vice versa. It is based on two methodological approaches: the division of vulnerability into three constituent components (exposure, resistance and resilience); and the conceptual split between producers and carriers of vulnerability. CR *HUA, 1990, UNPUB SOC EC IMP SEI *NTUA, 1996, EM OP PLAN SEIM DIS ALESCH DJ, 1996, PAN PAC HAZ 96 C VAN ANDERSON MB, 1989, RISING ASHES DEV STR BLAIKIE PM, 1994, RISK NATURAL HAZARDS, V1, P1 CHRISTOPLOS I, 2003, NATURAL DISASTERS DE, P95 DAHLHAMER JM, 1996, 243 U DEL DIS RES CT DSOUZA MJ, 1995, 224 U DEL DIS RES CT FROST C, 1994, DISASTER PREVENTION, V3, P7 GORDON PH, 1995, BUSINESS INTERRUPTIO HEWITT K, 1983, INTERPRETATIONS CALA, P3 MITCHELL JK, 1999, CRUCIBLES HAZARD MEG NIGG JM, 1995, P SIN US S POST EART, P46 PELLING M, 2003, VULNERABILITY CITIES SAPOUNTZAKI K, 2003, 1 DAY SEM NAT DIS DI SAPOUNTZAKI K, 2003, P 2003 INT SUST DEV, P388 SECRETT CH, 1996, PRESCRIPTIONS CHANGE, P12 SJOBERG L, 1987, STUDIES RISK GENERAT STALLINGS RA, 1996, NORTHRIDGE EARTHQUAK TIERNEY KJ, 1995, P 4 US C LIF EARTHQ TIERNEY KKJ, 1995, SPECIAL PUBLICATION, V116, P255 TIMMERMAN P, 1981, ENV MONOGRAPH I ENV, V1, P1 WEBB GR, 2000, NATURAL HAZARDS REV, V1, P83 NR 23 TC 0 J9 DISASTERS BP 195 EP 212 PY 2005 PD JUN VL 29 IS 2 GA 927KA UT ISI:000229191600005 ER PT J AU Robinson, JB Bradley, M Busby, P Connor, D Murray, A Sampson, B Soper, W TI Climate change and sustainable development: Realizing the opportunity SO AMBIO LA English DT Article C1 Univ British Columbia, Inst Resources Environm & Sustainabil, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z4, Canada. Canadian Forest Prod Canfor, Vancouver, BC V6C 2C1, Canada. Busby & Associates, Vancouver, BC V6B 2Y5, Canada. QuestAir Technol Inc, Burnaby, BC V5J 4R8, Canada. Vancouver Int Airport Author, Commun & Environm Affairs, Richmond, BC V7B 1Y7, Canada. BC Hydro & Power Author, Sustainabil, Vancouver, BC V6B 5R3, Canada. Int Ctr Sustainable Cities, Vancouver, BC V6J 1P2, Canada. RP Robinson, J, Univ British Columbia, Inst Resources Environm & Sustainabil, 2202 Main Mall, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z4, Canada. AB Manifold linkages exist between climate change and sustainable development. Although these are starting to receive attention in the climate exchange literature, the focus has typically been on examining sustainable development through a climate change lens, rather than vice versa. And there has been little systematic examination of how these linkages may be fostered in practice. This paper examines climate change through a sustainable development lens. To illustrate how this might change the approach to climate change issues, it reports on the findings of a panel of business, local government, and academic representatives in British Columbia, Canada, who were appointed to advise the provincial government on climate change policy. The panel found that sustainable development may offer a significantly more fruitful way to pursue climate policy goals than climate policy itself. The paper discusses subsequent climate change developments in the province and makes suggestions as how best to pursue such a sustainability approach in British Columbia and other jurisdictions. 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RSPB, Sandy SG19 5DL, Beds, England. Univ Sheffield, Dept Anim & Plant Sci, Sheffield S10 2TN, S Yorkshire, England. Butterfly Conservat, Wareham BH20 5QP, Dorset, England. British Waterways, Leeds LS9 8PB, W Yorkshire, England. Macaulay Inst, Aberdeen AB15 8QH, Scotland. Brtish Trust Ornithol, Nunnery, Thetford IP24 2PU, Norfolk, England. Rural Dev Serv, Dept Environm & Rural Affairs, Wolverhampton WV6 8TQ, England. Ctr Environm Fisheries & Aquaculture Sci, Lowestoft Lab, Lowestoft NR33 0HT, Suffolk, England. British Ecol Soc, London SW15 2NU, England. Assoc Natl Pk Author, Cardiff CF10 5LE, Wales. Univ Sheffield, Dept Anim & Plant Sci, Sheffield S10 2TN, S Yorkshire, England. Univ London Imperial Coll Sci & Technol, NERC Ctr Populat Biol, Ascot SL5 7PY, Berks, England. Sci Govt Directorate, Off Sci & Technol, Dept Trade & Ind, London SW1, England. Natl Trust, Swindon SN2 2NA, Wilts, England. Country Land & Business Assoc, London SW1X 8PQ, England. English Nat, Peterborough P61 1UA, England. Natl Farmers Union, Stoneleigh CV8 2TZ, Warwick, England. Defra, Nat Resource & Rural Affairs Sci Div, Bristol BS1 6EB, Avon, England. Univ Leeds, Sch Biol, Earth & Biosphere Inst, Leeds LS2 9JT, W Yorkshire, England. Univ Oxford, Wildlife Conservat Res Unit, Tubney OX13 5QL, Oxon, England. Off Deputy Prime Minister, London SW1E 5DU, England. Environm Agcy, Warrington WA4 1HG, Cheshire, England. Countryside Agcy, Cheltenham GL50 3RA, Glos, England. Campaign Protect Rural England, London SE1 0SW, England. Lancaster Environm Ctr, Ctr Ecol & Hydrol, Lancaster LA1 4AP, England. Univ Birmingham, Sch Biosci, Ctr Evidence Based Conservat, Birmingham B15 2TT, W Midlands, England. Buglife Invertebrate Conservat Trust, Peterborough PE1 2UF, England. Middlemarch Environm Ltd, Coventry CV5 9AZ, W Midlands, England. Woodland Trust, Grantham NG31 6LL, Lincs, England. Marine Conservat Soc, Ross On Wye HR9 5NB, England. Forest Enterprise, Lyndhurst SO43 7NH, Hants, England. Scottish Environm Protect Agcy, Stirling FK9 4TR, Scotland. Univ York, Dept Biol, Area 18, York YO10 5YW, N Yorkshire, England. Inst Ecol & Environm Management, Winchester SO23 9EH, Hants, England. Off Sci & Technol, Exploitat Grp, London SW1H 0ET, England. Univ Manchester, Sch Life Sci, Manchester M13 9PT, Lancs, England. Univ E Anglia, Sch Biol Sci, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. Univ E Anglia, Sch Environm Sci, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. Univ E Anglia, Tyndall Ctr Climate Change Res, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. RP Sutherland, WJ, Univ E Anglia, Sch Biol Sci, Ctr Ecol Evolut & Conservat, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. AB 1. Evidence-based policy requires researchers to provide the answers to ecological questions that are of interest to policy makers. To find out what those questions are in the UK, representatives from 28 organizations involved in policy, together with scientists from 10 academic institutions, were asked to generate a list of questions from their organizations. 2. During a 2-day workshop the initial list of 1003 questions generated from consulting at least 654 policy makers and academics was used as a basis for generating a short list of 100 questions of significant policy relevance. Short-listing was decided on the basis of the preferences of the representatives from the policy-led organizations. 3. The areas covered included most major issues of environmental concern in the UK, including agriculture, marine fisheries, climate change, ecosystem function and land management. 4. The most striking outcome was the preference for general questions rather than narrow ones. The reason is that policy is driven by broad issues rather than specific ones. In contrast, scientists are frequently best equipped to answer specific questions. This means that it may be necessary to extract the underpinning specific question before researchers can proceed. 5. Synthesis and applications. Greater communication between policy makers and scientists is required in order to ensure that applied ecologists are dealing with issues in a way that can feed into policy. It is particularly important that applied ecologists emphasize the generic value of their work wherever possible. CR 1992, UN C ENV DEV RIO DE 1994, BIODIVERSITY UK ACTI 2002, 5 INT C PROT N SEA B 2003, INVESTOR PERSPECTIVE *DEP ENV FOOD RUR, 2004, MAK SPAC WAT *DEP ENV FOOD RUR, 2004, SEC BEN JOINT UK RES *DEP ENV RUR AFF, 2002, SAF OUR SEAS STRAT C *DEP ENV RUR AFF, 2003, DEL EV DEFR SCI INN *DTI, 2003, OUR EN FUT CREAT LOW *EUR COMM, 2004, GOOD AGR ENV COND FR *FOR COMM, 1998, UK FOR STAND GOV APP *IPCC, 2001, CLIM CHANG 2001 SCI *MILL EC ASS, 2005, EC HUM WELL BEING FR *OFF DEP PRIM MIN, 2000, OUR TOWNS CIT *UK BIOD GROUP, 1999, UK BIOD GROUP TRANCH *WSSD, 2002, PLAN IMPL WORLD SUMM ALDHOUS P, 2005, NATURE, V435, P399 BIRNIE RV, 2000, ANN BOT-LONDON B, V85, P53 BULLOCK H, 2001, BETTER POLICY MAKING CONRAD KF, 2004, J INSECT CONSERV, V8, P119 COTE IM, 2005, PHILOS T ROY SOC B, V360, P385 COULSON SJ, 2001, J APPL ECOL, V38, P204 DULVY NK, 2003, FISH FISH, V4, P25 EVANS E, 2004, FORESIGHT FUTURE FLO, V1 EVANS E, 2004, FORESIGHT FUTURE FLO, V2 FULLER RJ, 2001, FORESTRY, V74, P193 GARTHE S, 2004, J APPL ECOL, V41, P724 GASTON KJ, 2005, BIODIVERS CONSERV, V14, P395 GRAY AJ, 2004, J APPL ECOL, V41, P1 HILBERT D, 1902, B AM MATH SOC, V8, P437 HOFFMAN P, 1998, MAN WHO LOVED ONLY N HOPE D, 2003, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V100, P8788 HULME M, 2002, CLIMATE CHANGE SCENA HULME PE, 2005, J APPL ECOL, V42, P784 JENNINGS S, 2004, J ANIM ECOL, V73, P632 KING D, 2005, J APPL ECOL, V42, P779 KLEIJN D, 2003, J APPL ECOL, V40, P947 MACDONALD DW, 1996, EXPLOITATION MAMMAL, P160 MANCHESTER SJ, 2000, J APPL ECOL, V37, P845 MARTIN CA, 2004, LANDSCAPE URBAN PLAN, V69, P355 MAY R, 2001, NATURE, V411, P891 MILLS D, 2003, SALMON EDGE MOONEY HA, 2000, INVASIVE SPECIES CHA NEWTON I, 1998, CONSERVATION SCI ACT, P66 NORTON BG, 2005, SUSTAINABILITY PHILO OLDFIELD TEE, 2003, NATURE, V423, P531 PEACH WJ, 2001, BIOL CONSERV, V101, P361 PERROW MR, 2002, HDB ECOLOGICAL RESTO, V1 PETERS RH, 1991, CRITIQUE ECOLOGY PULLIAM HR, 1988, AM NAT, V132, P652 PULLIN AS, 2001, CONSERV BIOL, V15, P50 ROBINSON JG, IN PRESS CONSERVATIO ROBINSON RA, 2002, J APPL ECOL, V39, P157 STEFFEN W, 2004, GLOBAL CHANGE EARTH SUTHERLAND WJ, 2004, IBIS S1, V146, P120 SUTHERLAND WJ, 2004, TRENDS ECOL EVOL, V19, P305 SUTHERLAND WJ, 2006, IN PRESS J APPL ECOL, V43 WARREN MS, 1993, BIOL CONSERV, V64, P25 WOLFF WJ, 2000, BIOL CONSERV, V95, P209 NR 59 TC 4 J9 J APPL ECOL BP 617 EP 627 PY 2006 PD AUG VL 43 IS 4 GA 055YL UT ISI:000238487200002 ER PT J AU Jha, M Pan, ZT Takle, ES Gu, R TI Impacts of climate change on streamflow in the Upper Mississippi River Basin: A regional climate model perspective SO JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES LA English DT Article C1 Iowa State Univ Sci & Technol, Dept Civil Construct & Environm Engn, Ames, IA 50011 USA. St Louis Univ, Dept Earth & Atmospher Sci, St Louis, MO 63103 USA. Iowa State Univ Sci & Technol, Dept Agron, Ames, IA 50011 USA. RP Jha, M, Iowa State Univ Sci & Technol, Dept Civil Construct & Environm Engn, Ames, IA 50011 USA. AB Impact of climate change on streamflow in the Upper Mississippi River Basin is evaluated by use of a regional climate model (RCM) coupled with a hydrologic model, Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). The RCM we used resolves, at least partially, some fine-scale dynamical processes that are important contributors to precipitation in this region and that are not well simulated by global models. The SWAT model was calibrated and validated against measured streamflow data using observed weather data and inputs from the U. S. Environmental Protection Agency Better Assessment Science Integrating Point and Nonpoint Sources (BASINS) geographic information systems/database system. Combined performance of SWAT and RCM was examined using observed weather data as lateral boundary conditions in the RCM. The SWAT and RCM performed well, especially on an annual basis. Potential impacts of climate change on water yield and other hydrologic budget components were then quantified by driving SWAT with current and future scenario climates. Twenty-one percent increase in future precipitation simulated by the RCM produced 18% increase in snowfall, 51% increase in surface runoff, and 43% increase in groundwater recharge, resulting in 50% net increase in total water yield in the Upper Mississippi River Basin on an annual basis. Uncertainty analysis showed that the simulated change in streamflow substantially exceeded model biases of the combined modeling system (with largest bias of 18%). While this does not necessarily give us high confidence in the actual climate change that will occur, it does demonstrate that the climate change "signal" stands out from the climate modeling ( global plus regional) and impact assessment modeling (SWAT) "noise." CR *USDA, 1994, MISC PUBL USDA, V1492 *USEPA, 2001, BASINS 3 0 BETT ASS ANDERSON CJ, 2003, J HYDROMETEOROL, V4, P584 ARNELL NW, 2003, J GEOPHYS RES-ATMOS, V108 ARNOLD JG, 1993, J HYDROL, V142, P47 ARNOLD JG, 1996, J HYDROL, V176, P57 ARNOLD JG, 1998, J AM WATER RESOUR AS, V34, P73 ARNOLD JG, 1999, J AM WATER RESOUR AS, V35, P1037 CHANGNON SA, 1996, GREAT FLOOD 1993 CAU GHAN SJ, 1995, MON WEATHER REV, V124, P1388 GIORGI F, 1993, MON WEATHER REV, V121, P2794 GIORGI F, 1994, J CLIMATE, V7, P375 GIORGI F, 1994, Q J ROY METEOR SOC, V120, P161 GLANTZ MH, 1988, SOC RESPONSES REGION HAY LE, 2002, J HYDROMETEOROL, V3, P571 HIGGINS RW, 1997, J CLIMATE, V10, P481 HOUGHTON JT, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 JONES TE, 1997, CLIM DYNAM, V13, P103 KALNAY E, 1996, B AM METEOROL SOC, V77, P437 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 MEARNS LO, 1997, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V35, P367 NASH JE, 1970, J HYDROL, V10, P282 PAN Z, 2001, J GEOPHSY RES, V106, P17737 ROSENTHAL WD, 1995, T ASAE, V38, P783 SALEH A, 2000, T ASAE, V43, P1077 SANTHI C, 2001, J AM WATER RESOUR AS, V37, P1169 SRINIVASAN R, 1998, J AM WATER RESOUR AS, V34, P91 STONE MC, 2001, J AM WATER RESOUR AS, V37, P1119 STONE MC, 2003, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V30 TAKLE ES, 1999, J GEOPHYS RES-ATMOS, V104, P19443 WALLACE JM, 1977, ATMOSPHERIC SCI INTR NR 31 TC 0 J9 J GEOPHYS RES-ATMOS PY 2004 PD MAY 15 VL 109 IS D9 GA 821PN UT ISI:000221474400001 ER PT J AU Cowling, RM Pressey, RL Rouget, M Lombard, AT TI A conservation plan for a global biodiversity hotspot - the Cape Floristic Region, South Africa SO BIOLOGICAL CONSERVATION LA English DT Review C1 Univ Port Elizabeth, Terr Ecol Res Unit, ZA-6000 Port Elizabeth, South Africa. Univ Port Elizabeth, So African Hotspots Program Conservat Int, Dept Bot, ZA-6000 Port Elizabeth, South Africa. New S Wales Natl Parks & Wildlife Serv, Armidale, NSW 2350, Australia. Univ Cape Town, Dept Bot, Inst Plant Conservat, ZA-7701 Rondebosch, South Africa. RP Cowling, RM, Univ Port Elizabeth, Terr Ecol Res Unit, POB 1600, ZA-6000 Port Elizabeth, South Africa. AB We produced a conservation plan that achieved conservation targets for biodiversity pattern and process in the species- and endemic-rich Cape Floristic Region of South Africa. Features given quantitative conservation targets were land classes, localities of Proteaceae and selected vertebrate (freshwater fish, amphibians and reptiles) species, population sizes for medium- and large-sized mammals, and six types of spatial surrogates for ecological and evolutionary processes. The plan was developed in several stages using C-Plan, a decision support system linked to a geographic information system. Accepting the existing reserve system as part of the plan, we first selected spatially fixed surrogates for biodiversity processes; then we included those planning units that were essential for achieving targets for land classes, Proteaceae and vertebrate species; next we included areas required to accommodate population and design targets for large and medium-sized mammals; we then selected planning units required to conserve entire upland-lowland and macroclimatic gradients; and finally we resolved the options for achieving remaining targets while also consolidating the design of conservation areas. The result was a system of conservation areas, requiring, in addition to the existing reserve system, 52% of the remaining extant habitat in the planning domain, as well as restorable habitat, that will promote the persistence and continued diversification of much of the region's biota in the face of ongoing habitat loss and climate change. After describing the planning process, we discuss implementation priorities in relation to conservation value and vulnerability to habitat loss, as well as socio-economic, political and institutional. constraints and opportunities. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. 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VANEWRIGHT RI, 1996, BIODIVERSITY BIOL NU, P309 VANWILGEN BW, 1996, BIOSCIENCE, V46, P184 WILLIAMS PH, 2000, P ROY SOC LOND B BIO, V267, P1959 WOODROFFE R, 1997, AFRICAN WILD DOG STA, P118 WRIGHT MG, 1999, BIODIVERS CONSERV, V8, P1089 YOUNGE A, 2000, CAPE ACTION PLAN ENV YOUNGE A, 2003, BIOL CONSERV, V112, P15 NR 153 TC 17 J9 BIOL CONSERV BP 191 EP 216 PY 2003 PD JUL-AUG VL 112 IS 1-2 GA 679HC UT ISI:000182913800011 ER PT J AU Endfield, GH Tejedo, IF TI Decades of drought, years of hunger: Archival investigations of multiple year droughts in late colonial Chihuahua SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 Univ Nottingham, Sch Geog, Nottingham NG7 2RD, England. RP Endfield, GH, Univ Nottingham, Sch Geog, Univ Pk, Nottingham NG7 2RD, England. AB Unusually severe or prolonged drought ranks among the most devastating and calamitous of all extreme climate events, contributing to wildfires, crop failure, livestock death, food shortages and famine. The response of human activities and the natural environment to such historical weather perturbations provides a guide to where the most critical sensitivities to future climate changes may lie (McCarthy et al., 2001, Climatic change 2001: Impact adaptation, and vulnerability', from 3rd Assesment Report of IPCC). The reconstruction of regional climatic histories and investigations of the impacts of - and social response to - extreme droughts in history are thus of crucial significance if we are to understand and anticipate the potential repercussions of future events (Wigley, 1985, Nature 316, 106-107; Grove and Conterio, 1995, Clim. Change 30, 223). Chihuahua, in the arid Northwest of Mexico, is one of the most seriously and frequently drought affected regions of the country (Garcia, 2000, available at www.sequia.edu.mx/proyectos/vulnera.html). Prolonged drought in the 1930s, 1950s and 1990s contributed to water scarcity, harvest failure, illness, livestock disease, abandonment and water conflict and served to highlight the particular vulnerability of agrarian society in this region to climatic variability (Sandoval, 2003, Ingeneria Hidraulica en Mexico 18(2), 133-155). Recent investigations using tree ring analysis have identified several phases of such prolonged drought over the last seven centuries. In this paper we use archival documents to investigate the impacts of such periods in late colonial Chihuahua and to explore how society in the region responded to and coped with them. CR *ISDR, 2002, DROUGHT LIV RISK INT *NOAA, INT TREE RING DAT BA ABOITES L, 1994, BREVE HIST CHIHUAHUA ACUNASOTO R, 2000, AM J TROP MED HYG, V62, P733 ACUNASOTO R, 2002, EMERG INFECT DIS, V8, P360 ALLAN RJ, 1996, NINO SO OSCILLATION ALVAREZ S, 1990, 2 C HIST REG COMP U, P141 BAETHGEN WE, 1997, CLIMATE RES, V9, P1 BALLARD C, 1986, J INTERDISCIPL HIST, V2, P359 BANCROFT HH, 1884, WORKS H HOWE BANCROF, V15 BARRIENDOS M, 1997, HOLOCENE, V7, P105 BERZ G, 1997, P WORKSH IND IND CLI BURNS BT, 1983, THESIS U ARIZONA TUS BUTZER EK, 2003, ANN C ASS AM GEOGR N BUTZER KW, 1997, QUATERN INT, V43, P161 CAMUFFO D, 1992, CLIMATE AD 1500, P143 CAVAZOS T, 1990, INT J CLIMATOL, V10, P377 CHEVALIER F, 1952, FORMACION GRANDES DO CLEAVELAND MK, 2003, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V59, P369 CONDE C, 1997, CLIMATE RES, V9, P17 COOPER D, 1965, EPIDEMIC DIS MEXICO COPE RD, 1994, LIMITS RACIAL DOMINA CRAMAUSSEL C, 1990, 2 C HIST REG COMP U, P115 CRAMAUSSEL C, 1990, PROVINCIA SANTA BARB CURTIN CG, 2002, ENVIRON SCI POLICY, V5, P55 DEARREGUI DL, 1946, DESCRIPCION NUEVA GA DETTINGER MD, 1998, J CLIMATE, V11, P3095 DEVACA NC, 1958, VIAJES VIAJEROS VIAJ, P17 DIAZ SC, 2002, CLIMATE RES, V22, P237 EASTERLIING DR, 2001, B AM METEOROLOGICAL, V81, P417 ENDFIELD GH, 1997, ENVIRON HIST, V3, P255 ENDFIELD GH, 2002, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V92, P727 ENDFIELD GH, 2004, J HIST GEOGR, V30, P249 ESCOBAR DAM, 1940, DESCRIPICION GEOGRAF FLORESCANO E, 1976, ORIGEN DESAROLLO PRO FLORESCANO E, 1980, NEXOS, V32, P9 FLORESCANO E, 1981, ARCH GEN NACION FLORESCANO E, 1995, BREVE HIST SEQUIA ME GARCIA SJ, 2000, ANAL VULNERABILIDAD GARCIAACOSTA V, 1993, RED, V1, P2 GRIFFEN WB, 1979, INDIAN ASSIMILATION GROVE JM, 1983, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V5, P265 GROVE JM, 1995, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V30, P223 HIGGINS RW, 1999, J CLIMATE, V12, P653 HODELL DA, 1995, NATURE, V375, P391 HOUGHTON JT, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 JAUREGUI E, 1976, GEOFISICA INT, V16, P45 JAUREGUI E, 1979, B I GEOGRAFIA UNAM, V9, P39 KARL TR, 1999, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V42, P309 KELLEY JC, 1992, HSIT GEN CHIHUAHUA, V1 KIM TW, 2002, WATER INT, V27, P420 KUNDZEWICZ ZW, 2000, WATER INT, V25, P66 KUTZBACH JE, 1985, NATURE, V317, P130 LADURIE L, 1983, HIST CLIMAT DEPUIS M LAFERRIERE JE, 1992, ECOL FOOD NUTR, V28, P1 LAFORA N, 1939, RELACION VIJAE HIZO LANDSBERG H, 1980, J INTERDISCIPLINARY, V10, P631 LIVERMAN DM, 1993, REGIONS GLOBAL WARMI LIVERMAN DM, 1990, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V80, P49 LIVERMAN DM, 1999, NAT RESOUR J, V39, P99 LOPES MAD, 2001, HIST MEXICANA, V50, P513 MAGANA VO, 1999, IMPACTOS NINO MEXICO MALVIDO E, 1973, HIST MEXICANA, V89, P96 MARR JS, 2000, MED HIST, V44, P341 MARTIN CE, 1996, GOVERNANCE SOC COLON MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 METCALFE SE, 1987, GEOGR J, V153, P211 METCALFE SE, 1997, J PALEOLIMNOL, V17, P155 MEYER WB, 1998, HUMAN CHOICE CLIMATE, P218 MIRANDA J, 1871, COLLECCION DOCUMENTO, V16 NAYLOR TH, 1986, PRESIDIO MILITIA NO NEUMANN SIJ, 1969, REVOLTES INDIENS TAR OHARA SL, 1993, GEOGR J, V159, P51 OHARA SL, 1995, HOLOCENE, V5, P485 OUWENEEL A, 1996, SHADOWS ANAHUAC ECOL QUINN WH, 1987, J GEOPHYS RES-OCEANS, V92, P14449 RILEY JD, 2002, AMERICAS, V58, P355 RIVERA SL, 1999, DEFEND OUR WATER BLO ROMERAL PT, 1937, BIBLIO MEXICANA OBRA, V7 SANDOVAL CAE, 2003, ING HIDRAUL MEX, V18, P133 SANTIAGO M, 1996, J ARIZONA HIST, V37, P283 SCHMIDT RH, 1992, HIST GEN CHIHUAHUA, V1, P47 SIMPSON LB, 1966, MANY MEXICOS TUTINO J, 1986, INSURRECTION REVOLUT WALLEN CC, 1955, GEOGRAFISKA ANN, V37, P51 WEST RC, 1949, IBEROAMERICANA, V30 WIGLEY TM, 1981, CLIMATE HIST WIGLEY TML, 1985, NATURE, V316, P106 YATES PLL, 1981, MEXICOS AGR DILEMMA NR 89 TC 0 J9 CLIMATIC CHANGE BP 391 EP 419 PY 2006 PD APR VL 75 IS 4 GA 046ED UT ISI:000237793300001 ER PT J AU Lowe, P Phillipson, J TI Reflexive interdisciplinary research: The making of a research programme on the Rural Economy and Land Use SO JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS LA English DT Article C1 Univ Newcastle, Sch Agr Food & Rural Dev, Ctr Rural Econ, Rural Econ & Land Use Programme, Newcastle Upon Tyne NE1 7RU, Tyne & Wear, England. RP Lowe, P, Univ Newcastle, Sch Agr Food & Rural Dev, Ctr Rural Econ, Rural Econ & Land Use Programme, Newcastle Upon Tyne NE1 7RU, Tyne & Wear, England. AB This paper provides an account of the origins and formation of the UK Research Councils' Rural Economy and Land Use (RELU) programme and its approach to promoting interdisciplinary working between social and natural scientists. The programme is set in the context of broader developments in science policy, including a policy discourse centred upon sustainable development and the knowledge economy and associated demands for greater accountability in science. Interdisciplinarity promises research that will be more relevant and responsive to public needs and concerns. In describing the provenance of the RELU programme, therefore, the paper seeks to lay out the different stages in its initiation and design to show how, to varying degrees, these were open to external scrutiny and influence. The process of developing the programme illustrates that it is not straightforward to make research agendas and funding more transparent and accountable. It also provides insights into the challenges that interdisciplinarity and accountability present to established science institutions. CR *AFRC ESRC NERC, 1994, JAEP REP JOINT AGR E *AGR ENV BIOT COMM, 2005, WHAT SHAP RES AG AGR *DEP ENV FOOD RUR, 2003, DEL EV DEFR SCI INN *DEP ENV TRANSP RE, 2000, OUR COUNTR FUT FAIR *DEP TRAD IND, 1998, OUR COMP FUT BUILD K *DEP TRAD IND, 2000, EXC OPP SCI INN POL *FOOD ETH COUNC, 2004, JUST KNOWL GOV RES F *HM TREAS DEP ED S, 2004, SCI INN INV FRAM 200 *HOUS LORDS SCI TE, 2000, SCI SOC *OFF SCI TECHN, 2001, QUINQ REV GRANT AW R, V2 *PERF INN UN, 1999, RUR EC *POL STUD I, 2002, NEW AG UK SUST DEV R *RELU, 2005, RELU COMM PLAN *RES COUNC UK, 2004, MEM RES COUNC UK COU ABBOTT A, 2001, CHAOS DISCIPLINES BATEMAN IJ, 2006, J AGR ECON, V57, P221 CAPRA F, 1996, WEB LIFE CLARK J, 1992, SOCIOL RURALIS, V32, P11 COOKE P, 2002, KNOWLEDGE EC CLUSTER DOUGILL AJ, 2006, J AGR ECON, V57, P259 HUBY M, 2006, J AGR ECON, V57, P295 JACOB M, 2000, FUTURE KNOWLEDGE PRO JASANOFF S, 1997, PUBLIC UNDERST SCI, V6, P221 KATES RW, 2001, SCIENCE, V292, P641 KLEIN JT, 1990, INTERDISCIPLINARITY KLEIN JT, 2004, EMERGENCE COMPLEXITY, V6, P2 LANE SN, 2006, J AGR ECON, V57, P239 LOWE P, 1992, SOCIOL RURALIS, V32, P4 MARZANO M, 2006, J AGR ECON, V57, P185 MATTHEWS R, 2006, J AGR ECON, V57, P199 MILES S, 2004, BRIT FOOD J, V106, P9 NEWBY H, 1993, CTR ADV STUD SOC SCI, P1 NOWOTNY H, 2001, RETHINKING SCI KNOWL NOWOTNY H, 2003, POTENTIAL TRANSDISCI PHILLIPSON J, 2006, KNOWLEDGE EXCHANGE R RHOTEN D, 2004, ITEMS ISSUES NEWSLET, V5, P6 SHEPHERD R, 2006, J AGR ECON, V57, P313 SHOVE E, 2005, ESRC SEM SER INT AG STRATHERN M, 2004, COMMONS BORDERLANDS TIFFIN R, 2006, J AGR ECON, V57, P213 WATERTON C, 2006, J AGR ECON, V57, P277 NR 41 TC 3 J9 J AGR ECON BP 165 EP 184 PY 2006 PD JUL VL 57 IS 2 GA 054RL UT ISI:000238396200002 ER PT J AU Pennington, DW Potting, J Finnveden, G Lindeijer, E Jolliet, O Rydberg, T Rebitzer, G TI Life cycle assessment Part 2: Current impact assessment practice SO ENVIRONMENT INTERNATIONAL LA English DT Review C1 Commiss European Communities, Joint Res Ctr, Inst Environm & Sustainabil, Soil & Waste Unit, I-21020 Ispra, Italy. Univ Groningen, Ctr Energy & Environm Studies, IVEM, NL-9747 AG Groningen, Netherlands. Royal Inst Technol, Ctr Environm Strategies Res, Fms, KTH, SE-10044 Stockholm, Sweden. TNO, Ind Technol, NL-5600 HE Eindhoven, Netherlands. Swiss Fed Inst Technol, Life Cycle Syst Grp, GECOS, ENAC, CH-1015 Lausanne, Switzerland. RP Potting, J, Commiss European Communities, Joint Res Ctr, Inst Environm & Sustainabil, Soil & Waste Unit, TP 460, I-21020 Ispra, Italy. AB Providing our society with goods and services contributes to a wide range of environmental impacts. Waste generation, emissions and the consumption of resources occur at many stages in a product's life cycle-from raw material extraction, energy acquisition, production and manufacturing, use, reuse, recycling, through to ultimate disposal. These all contribute to impacts such as climate change, stratospheric ozone depletion, photooxidant formation (smog), eutrophication, acidification, toxicological stress on human health and ecosystems, the depletion of resources and noise-among others. The need exists to address these product-related contributions more holistically and in an integrated manner, providing complimentary insights to those of regulatory/process-oriented methodologies. A previous article (Part 1, Rebitzer et al., 2004) outlined how to define and model a product's life cycle in current practice, as well as the methods and tools that are available for compiling the associated waste, emissions and resource consumption data into a life cycle inventory. This article highlights how practitioners and researchers from many domains have come together to provide indicators for the different impacts attributable to products in the life cycle impact assessment (LCIA) phase of life cycle assessment (LCA). (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 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VROM SCHMITZ S, 1999, 14042 ISO SCHWEINLE J, 2001, 202 BFH SEPPALA J, 2002, J IND ECOLOGY, V5, P45 SEPPALA J, 2003, IN PRESS INT J LCA SLEESWIJK AW, 2001, ENVIRON SCI POLLUT R, V8, P1 SOLBERGJOHANSEN B, 1998, THESIS U SURREY GUIL STEEN B, 1999, SYSTEMATIC APPROACH, P4 STEEN B, 1999, SYSTEMATIC APPROACH, P5 STUMM W, 1981, AQUATIC CHEM INTRO E THISSEN UMJ, 1999, 173 U NIJM DEP ENV S TRUSTY WB, 1997, ECOLOGICAL EFFECTS R UCHIDA H, 2002, EC 2002 C P NOV 6 8 VANDENBERG NW, 1999, 152 CML CTR ENV SCI VANEK R, 2002, 4202002943 TNO IND T VOLKWEIN S, 1996, INT J LCA, V1, P182 WEIDEMA BP, 2001, PHYS IMPACTS LAND US WENZEL H, 1997, ENV ASSESSMENT PRODU, V1 NR 144 TC 4 J9 ENVIRON INT BP 721 EP 739 PY 2004 PD JUL VL 30 IS 5 GA 821ZJ UT ISI:000221501800012 ER PT J AU STEINBERG, T TI WHAT IS A NATURAL-DISASTER + THE ENVIRONMENT AND HUMAN CULTURE SO LITERATURE AND MEDICINE LA English DT Article RP STEINBERG, T, NEW JERSEY INST TECHNOL,NEWARK,NJ 07102. CR 1909, NATION 0204, P105 1962, NEWSWEEK 0730, P44 1963, NEWSWEEK 1104, P69 1964, US NEWS WORLD R 1116, P92 1965, US NEWS WORLD R 0607, P10 1992, NEWSWEEK 0907, P23 *TRI STAT WEATH AS, CLOUD SEED SCI FRAUD *TRI STAT WEATH AS, THIS INT CAPT US BURTON I, 1978, ENV HAZARD, V1, P1 HALL DD, 1989, WORLDS WONDER DAYS J HEWITT K, 1983, INTERPRETATIONS CALA, P17 HOFSTADTER R, 1965, PARANOID STYLE AM PO KERR RA, 1982, SCI 0806, P519 MCCULLOUGH D, 1968, JOHNSTOWN FLOOD MCKIBBEN B, 1989, END NATURE MCPHEE J, 1989, CONTROL NATURE MITCHELL JM, 1964, US NEWS WORLD R 1130, P54 PERROW C, 1984, NORMAL ACCIDENTS LIV RICH B, 1994, MORTGAGING EARTH WOR SHOWALTER PS, 1993, UNPUB NATURAL HAZARD SPENCE C, 1980, RAINMAKERS AM PLUVIC STEINBERG T, 1994, THESE TIMES 0530, P14 STEINBERG T, 1995, SLIDE MOUNTAIN FOLLY SWANK G, CITED INDIRECTLY TINKER J, 1984, SOCIALIST REV, V14, P10 VANTWELL R, 1965, SPORTS ILLUSTRA 0809, P22 WORSTER D, 1992, WESTERN SKIES NATURE NR 27 TC 0 J9 LIT MED BP 33 EP 47 PY 1996 PD SPR VL 15 IS 1 GA UF342 UT ISI:A1996UF34200004 ER PT J AU Tixier, J Dandrieux, A Dusserre, G Bubbico, R Mazzarotta, B Silvetti, B Hubert, E Rodrigues, N Salvi, O TI Environmental vulnerability assessment in the vicinity of an industrial site in the frame of ARAMIS European project SO JOURNAL OF HAZARDOUS MATERIALS LA English DT Article C1 Ecole Mines Ales, LGEI, Ind Risk & Nat Hazard Dept, F-30319 Ales, France. Univ Roma La Sapienza, Dipartimento Ingn Chim, I-00184 Rome, Italy. Ecole Natl Super Mines, Ctr SITE, F-42023 St Etienne, France. INERIS, F-60550 Verneuil En Halatte, France. RP Tixier, J, Ecole Mines Ales, LGEI, Ind Risk & Nat Hazard Dept, 6 Ave Clavieres, F-30319 Ales, France. AB This work has been carried out in the framework of the ARAMIS project, which aims at developing a comprehensive procedure for assessing the risk level associated to an industrial site with respect to the surrounding environment. To this end, an index is defined which consists of the contribution of three terms, expressing the severity of the scenario consequences, the efficiency of the safety management and the vulnerability of the surrounding environment. The present work focuses on this last aspect concerning the determination of the vulnerability, of the area in the vicinity of an industrial site, of human, environmental (or natural) and material stakes. The applied methodology consists in identifying and quantifying the targets by the means of a geographical information system (GIS) and in assessing the contribution of each target on the basis of a multicriteria decision approach (Saaty method). The result is an operational tool allowing competent authorities, industrialists and risk experts to assess the vulnerability of the area surrounding an industrial site. (C) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. CR 1996, TELEATLAS BV ROADNET *ARPAT, 2000, AN RISCH AR LIV STRA *ESRI, 2000, ARCVIEW GIS 3 2 WIND *IFEN, 2002, COR LAND COV CART DA *INSEE, 1999, CDROM POP LEG REC PO *ISTAT, 1992, 13 CENS GEN POP AB R *MAPINFO, 2002, US GUID MAP INF 7 0 COBURN AW, 2001, VULNERABILITY RISK A EGIDI D, 1995, RELIAB ENG SYST SAFE, V49, P75 SAATY TL, 1984, DECIDER FACE COMPLEX TIXIER J, 2003, SAFETY RELIABILITY, V2, P1543 NR 11 TC 0 J9 J HAZARD MATER BP 251 EP 264 PY 2006 PD MAR 31 VL 130 IS 3 GA 028OS UT ISI:000236498200007 ER PT J AU Tao, F Yokozawa, M Hayashi, Y Lin, E TI Changes in agricultural water demands and soil moisture in China over the last half-century and their effects on agricultural production SO AGRICULTURAL AND FOREST METEOROLOGY LA English DT Article C1 Chinese Acad Agr Sci, Inst Agr Environm & Sustainable Dev, Beijing 100081, Peoples R China. Natl Inst Agroenvironm Sci, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 3058604, Japan. RP Tao, F, Chinese Acad Agr Sci, Inst Agr Environm & Sustainable Dev, Beijing 100081, Peoples R China. AB It has become obvious in recent years that water is the most critical resource for Chinese agricultural ecosystems. Changes in agricultural water demands and soil moisture have significant implications for China's water supply, the potential for drought and flood, and agricultural production. In the studies, we explored the changing trends in agricultural water demands, the changing trends and variability in soil moisture associated with both drought and increased surface runoff in Chinese croplands during the last half-century, and their impacts on agricultural production. We plotted temporal and spatial changes in agricultural water demands, soil moisture, soil-moisture variability, soil-moisture deficit, yield index, and surface runoff on a grid of 0.5degrees resolution. We found a trend toward agricultural water demands increasing, soil drying and significant changes in soil-moisture variability on the North China Plain and the Northeast China Plain. There was a significant decrease in agricultural water demands and a significant increase in soil-moisture levels in Southwest China, and a generally insignificant increase or decrease trend in agricultural water demands and soil-moisture levels in Southeast China. These changes in agricultural water demands and soil-moisture levels had corresponding impacts on soil-moisture deficit, and consequently on agricultural production. Increased surface runoff was found in the mountainous areas of the southwest and northeast, and in some areas along the South Coast. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. CR *CHIN STAT FLOOD C, 1997, FLOOD DROUGHT DIS CH *COMP COMM STAT AT, 1989, AGR ATL CHIN, P34 *FAO, 1992, 46 FAO LAND WAT DEV *FAO, 1992, REP EXP CONS REV FAO MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 *US WAT SECT ASS T, 2000, POT IMP CLIM CHANG V BLACK JN, 1956, ARCH METEOROL GEOPHY, V7, P165 BUDYKO MI, 1956, GIDROMETEOROLOGICHES, P255 CHANG JH, 1970, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V60, P340 DUNNE KA, 1996, INT J CLIMATOL, V16, P841 EVANS TE, 1996, GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANG FEDDEMA JJ, 1998, CLIMATE RES, V10, P127 FENG Q, 1999, AMBIO, V28, P202 GLEICK PH, 1987, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V10, P137 GONG DY, 2000, CLIMATE RES, V16, P51 GREGORY JM, 1997, J CLIMATE, V10, P662 HEILIG GK, 1999, CHINA FOOD CAN CHINA KRON W, 1998, UBERSCHWEMUNGEN CHIN, V12, P739 NASH LL, 1993, EPA230R93009 NEW M, 1999, J CLIMATE, V12, P829 NEW M, 2000, J CLIMATE, V13, P2217 PENMAN HL, 1948, P ROY SOC LOND A MAT, V193, P120 PRESS WH, 1992, NUMERICAL RECIPES FO, P107 QIAN WH, 2001, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V50, P419 STORR D, 1978, COMP DAILY SNOWMELT TAO S, 1991, NDP039 ORNLCDIAC47 THOMAS A, 2000, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V102, P71 WETHERALD RT, 1999, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V43, P495 WILLMOTT CJ, 1985, J CLIMATOL, V5, P589 ZHENG Z, 1994, AEZ ASIA, P79 NR 30 TC 0 J9 AGR FOREST METEOROL BP 251 EP 261 PY 2003 PD SEP 30 VL 118 IS 3-4 GA 724ZA UT ISI:000185517100008 ER PT J AU Lal, M Singh, KK Rathore, LS Srinivasan, G Saseendran, SA TI Vulnerability of rice and wheat yields in NW India to future changes in climate SO AGRICULTURAL AND FOREST METEOROLOGY LA English DT Article C1 Natl Ctr Medium Range Weather Forecasting, New Delhi 110003, India. Indian Inst Technol, Ctr Atmospher Sci, New Delhi, India. India Meteorol Dept, New Delhi, India. RP Rathore, LS, Natl Ctr Medium Range Weather Forecasting, Mausam Bhavan,Lodi Rd, New Delhi 110003, India. AB Agricultural sector is one of the sensitive areas which would be influenced by the projected global warming and associated climate change. In spite of the uncertainties about the precise magnitude of climate change on regional scales, an assessment of the possible impacts of changes in key climatic elements on our agricultural resources is important for formulating response strategies. In this study, vulnerability of wheat and rice crops in northwest India to the projected climate change is examined. CERES wheat and rice models adopted for the study were validated for their ability to reproduce yields at the selected NW Indian stations. The sensitivity experiments with these models showed higher yields for both wheat and rice (28% and 15% respectively for a doubling of CO2) under elevated CO2 levels. A 3 degrees C (2 degrees C) rise in air temperature nearly cancels out the positive effect of elevated CO2 on the wheat (rice) yields. While the wheat crops are found to be sensitive to increase in maximum temperature, the rice crops are vulnerable to increase in minimum temperature. The combined effect of enhanced CO2 and imposed thermal stress on the wheat (rice) crop is 21% (4%) increase in yield for the irrigation schedule presently practised in the region. While the adverse impacts of likely water shortage on wheat crops would be minimised to a certain extent under elevated CO2 levels, they would largely be maintained for the rice crops resulting in about 20% net decline in rice yields. In general, acute water shortage conditions combined with the thermal stress should adversely affect both the wheat and more severely the rice productivity in NW India even under the positive effects of elevated CO2 in the future. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science B.V. CR ALOCILJA EC, 1988, IBSNAT RES REPORT SE, V1 BUTTERFIELD RE, 1992, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V62, P241 CHAUHAN DS, 1970, INDIAN J AGRON, V15, P46 CRISANTO RE, 1994, CLIMATE IMPACT ASSES, P15 CURE JD, 1985, DIRECT EFFECTS INCRE, P100 CURE JD, 1986, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V38, P127 CURRY RB, 1990, T ASAE, V33, P981 DHIMAN SD, 1985, HAR AGR UNI J RES, V15, P158 GENNADIY VM, 1994, 230B94003 EPA US CLI, P1 GIFFORD RM, 1988, AGRICULTURE, P506 GODWIN D, 1989, USERS GUIDE CERES WH, P61 GODWIN D, 1992, USERS GUIDE CERES RI HOUGHTON, 1996, 2 SCI ASSESSMENT CLI, P572 HUKKERI SB, 1977, MONOGRAPH IARI, V4, P163 KARL TR, 1991, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V18, P2253 LAL M, 1995, CURR SCI INDIA, V69, P752 LAL M, 1996, CURR SCI INDIA, V71, P746 MORISON JIL, 1987, STOMATAL FUNCTION, P229 OTAVIO JFD, 1994, IMPLICATIONS CLIMATE, P1 PEART RM, 1988, FINAL REPORT IMPACT RAO DG, 1994, IMPLICATION CLIMATE, P1 RITCHIE JT, 1989, USDA ARS, V38, P159 ROSENZWEIG C, 1994, IMPLICATIONS CLIMATE, P3 ROSENZWEIG C, 1996, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V80, P215 SAINI AD, 1987, INDIAN J AGR SCI, V57, P351 SINHA SK, 1991, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V16, P33 TSUJI GY, 1994, DSSAT V3 WARRICK RA, 1986, GREENHOUSE EFFECT CL, P393 WATSON, 1996, IMPACTS ADAPTATIONS, P879 ZHANG JC, 1989, METEOROL MAG, V15, P3 ZHIQING J, 1994, IMPLICATIONS CLIMATE, P1 NR 31 TC 8 J9 AGR FOREST METEOROL BP 101 EP 114 PY 1998 PD FEB VL 89 IS 2 GA ZB030 UT ISI:000072427800003 ER PT J AU Huang, YF Zou, Y Huang, GH Maqsood, I Chakma, A TI Flood vulnerability to climate change through hydrological modeling - A case study of the swift current creek watershed in western Canada SO WATER INTERNATIONAL LA English DT Article C1 Univ Regina, Regina, SK S4S 0A2, Canada. Univ Waterloo, Waterloo, ON N2L 3G1, Canada. RP Huang, YF, Univ Regina, Regina, SK S4S 0A2, Canada. AB Determination of flood vulnerability to climate change is one of the most critical issues for regional water management. Most of the previous studies related to system vulnerabilities to climate change were either a qualitative assessment without the support of hydrological modeling or too complex to apply them to real-world systems. In this study, a modeling and assessment system is proposed to tackle flood vulnerability to the climate change through the incorporation of future climate change scenarios, rainfall-runoff simulation, and vulnerability estimation within an integrated frame. The developed approach is applied to provide decision support for flood management of the Swift Current Creek watershed in Western Canada. The approach not only is useful to determine relative flood vulnerabilities to climate change for supporting flood control planning in the watershed, but also can be extended to estimate vulnerabilities of water quality and water supply to climate change. CR *DHI, 2000, MIKE11 REF MAN BABAEYANKOOPAEI K, 2003, J ENV INFORMATICS, V1, P28 BARNETT T, 2004, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V62, P1 BENDER MJ, 1997, SUSTAINABILITY CRITE BOER GJ, 2000, CLIM DYNAM, V16, P427 BRESLOW PB, 2002, RENEW ENERG, V27, P585 CHAUDHARY V, 2002, ENV MANAGEMENT HLTH, V13, P175 DETTINGER MD, 2004, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V62, P283 FLATO GM, 1992, J PHYS OCEANOGR, V22, P626 FLATO GM, 2000, CLIM DYNAM, V16, P451 FOWLER HJ, 2003, WATER RESOUR RES, V39 GAN TY, 2000, WATER RESOUR MANAG, V14, P111 GENT PR, 1990, J PHYS OCEANOGR, V20, P150 GOLUBTSOV VV, 1996, WATER RESOUR DEV, V12, P193 KELLY PM, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V47, P325 LOUKAS A, 2002, J HYDROL, V259, P163 LUO B, 2003, J ENV INFORM, V2, P58 MIMIKOU MA, 2000, J HYDROL, V234, P95 MUZIK I, 2002, J HYDROL, V267, P65 NASH JE, 1970, J HYDROL, V10, P282 NASH LL, 1991, J HYDROL, V125, P221 NIELSEN SA, 1973, NORD HYDROL, V4, P171 PANAGOULIA D, 1997, J HYDROL, V191, P208 REFSGAARD JC, 1996, WATER RESOUR RES, V32, P2189 SIMONOVIC SP, 2003, J WATER RES PL-ASCE, V129, P361 STRZEPEK KM, 1996, WATER RESOURCES DEV, V12, P111 VOROSMARTY CJ, 2000, SCIENCE, V289, P284 WANG GW, 2003, EDUC ASIA-PACIFIC, V2, P1 WATSOIN RT, 1996, IMPACTS ADAPTATIONS WOODVINE RJ, 1981, CITY SWIFT CURRENT F YIN YY, 2003, J ENV INFORMATICS, V2, P1 NR 31 TC 0 J9 WATER INT BP 31 EP 39 PY 2005 PD MAR VL 30 IS 1 GA 002NR UT ISI:000234618700005 ER PT J AU WESTING, AH TI COMPREHENSIVE HUMAN SECURITY AND ECOLOGICAL REALITIES SO ENVIRONMENTAL CONSERVATION LA English DT Editorial Material C1 HAMPSHIRE COLL,ECOL,AMHERST,MA 01002. RP WESTING, AH, INT PEACE RES INST,FUGLEHAUGGATA 11,N-0260 OSLO 2,NORWAY. CR 1989, ENV CONSVERATION WIM, V16 NR 1 TC 4 J9 ENVIRON CONSERV BP 295 EP 295 PY 1989 PD WIN VL 16 IS 4 GA DE670 UT ISI:A1989DE67000003 ER PT J AU [Anon] TI Launching a Dialogue on Water, Food and the Environment SO WATER SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY LA English DT Article AB Water management faces serious and growing challenges, as the example of Gujarat, India, makes clear, yet is still handicapped by the traditional sectoral barriers of water professionals. In response the Dialogue on Water, Food and Environment has been launched to bring together the water, agriculture and environmental sectors to address the problems of water resources management so as to achieve the twin goals of food and environmental security. NR 0 TC 0 J9 WATER SCI TECHNOL BP 19 EP 21 PY 2002 VL 45 IS 8 GA 552DL UT ISI:000175603500009 ER PT J AU Hoes, OAC Schuurmans, W Strijker, J TI Water systems and risk analysis SO WATER SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY LA English DT Article C1 Delft Univ Technol, Dept Water Resources, NL-2600 GA Delft, Netherlands. Nelen & Schuurmans Colsultants, NL-3720 BA Bilthoven, Netherlands. Hollands Noorderkwartier Water Board, NL-1440 AW Purmerend, Netherlands. RP Hoes, OAC, Delft Univ Technol, Dept Water Resources, POB 5048, NL-2600 GA Delft, Netherlands. AB Worldwide the water management sector is about to review the design standards for water systems, as expected climate changes may possibly increase the frequency of flood events. This paper reviews new flood standards for surface water systems in The Netherlands, also presenting a cost-benefit analysis. Flood standards were formulated after several serious incidents in 1998 and 2001 to inform residents about the level of protection that they may expect to receive. At this moment all water boards are about to evaluate their water systems using these standards. The cost-benefit approach has been applied to determine whether the necessary measures to comply with such standards were cost-effective. We found that the standards make too much a simplification of the variety of water systems, and lead to costly measures without being beneficial while many small-scale floods in The Netherlands do not cause any significant damage. A better starting point to anticipate on climate change is to prevent damage, instead of the prevention of flooding. CR *GRONTM, 2000, 1399010374ACK GRONTM *HHN5, 2004, BESCH WAT NOORD WATSON RT, 1998, REGIONAL IMPACTS CLI, V1, P1 *KNMI, 2003, TOESTAND KLIM NED ARNELL NW, 1986, WATER RESOURCES PLAN, V12, P104 BEDFORD T, 2001, PROBABILISTIC RISK A HARTER HL, 1968, J AM STAT ASSOC, V63, P889 LEESE MN, 1973, WATER RESOUR RES, V9, P1534 MEIJERINK MH, 2004, IBO BEK WAT STUMPE J, 2000, WAT 21 EEUW ADV COMM TOBIN GA, 1997, NATURAL HAZARDS EXPL VOORTMAN HG, 2003, THESIS DELFT U TECHN NR 12 TC 0 J9 WATER SCI TECHNOL BP 105 EP 112 PY 2005 VL 51 IS 5 GA 931CW UT ISI:000229464400016 ER PT J AU Huigen, MGA Jens, IC TI Socio-economic impact of super typhoon Harurot in San Mariano, Isabela, the Philippines SO WORLD DEVELOPMENT LA English DT Article C1 Leiden Univ, NL-2300 RA Leiden, Netherlands. RP Huigen, MGA, Leiden Univ, NL-2300 RA Leiden, Netherlands. AB This paper reports on the socio-economic effects and coping mechanisms of farm households affected by super typhoon Imbudo in San Mariano, Isabela, the Philippines. Estimations of economic losses are given based on 150 interviews among the rural population. The relative loss per crop as part of the annual household income for yellow corn, banana, and rice were 64%, 24%, and 27%, respectively. Unexpectedly, most farm households did not change their agricultural strategies and continued with "business as usual" (78%). The main explanation for this lack of adaptation is found in the cultural and societal structure of farm households and their traders. This paper concludes with a short-term and long-term vulnerability and resilience analysis for the households, the socio-agricultural system, and the ecological system. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *ACT, 2003, SUP TYPH HITS PHIL 2 *MAN TIM, 2003, ITS FIN HAR DAM RIS *NSO, 2001, PHIL YB CENS 2000 *UNDRO, 1979, DIS PREV MIT, V7 *VIRT INF CTR, 2003, TYPH HAR HITS PHIL BANKOFF G, 1999, PACIFIC REV BANKOFF G, 2003, CULTURES DIS SOC NAT BENSON C, 1997, 99 ODI BENSON C, 2004, DISASTER RISK MANAGE, V4 BENSON C, 2004, MEASURING MITIGATION BLAIKIE PM, 1994, RISK NATURAL HAZARDS, V1, P1 BULL R, 1994, DISASTER EC DISASTER DEGROOT WT, 1992, ENV SCI THEORY CONCE DELNINNO C, 2001, 122 IFPRI DELNINNO C, 2003, WORLD DEV, V31, P1221 EISENSTADT SN, 1981, POLITICAL CLIENTELIS HUIGEN MGA, 2004, J ENVIRON MANAGE, V72, P5 JOVEL R, 1989, EC SOCIAL CONSEQUENC MCGUIGAN C, 2002, POVERTY CLIMATE CHAN OVERMARS KP, 2005, INT J GEOGR INF SYST, V19, P1 PERSSON GA, 2003, SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAI, P209 POLET G, 1991, 3 U LEID RUTTEN R, 2001, J HUMANITIES SOCIAL, V157, P629 TOBIN GA, 1999, ENV HAZARDS, V1, P13 TWIGG J, 2001, 2 BENF GREIG HAZ RES VANDENTOP GM, 1998, THESIS CTR ENV SCI L VANDERWERF I, 1994, 38 U LEID IS STAT U VANWEERD M, 2002, CROCODILES, P97 WILLIAM HS, GERMAN TRAVELERS COR WISNER B, 2001, UN CHRONICLE, V3, P6 ZAPATAMARTI R, 1997, P EXP CONS METH BRUS NR 31 TC 0 J9 WORLD DEVELOP BP 2116 EP 2136 PY 2006 PD DEC VL 34 IS 12 GA 118DI UT ISI:000242921900008 ER PT J AU Kelly, PM Adger, WN TI Theory and practice in assessing vulnerability to climate change and facilitating adaptation SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 Univ E Anglia, Climat Res Unit, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. Univ E Anglia, Sch Environm Sci, Ctr Social & Econ Res Global Environm, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. RP Kelly, PM, Univ E Anglia, Climat Res Unit, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. AB We discuss approaches to the assessment of vulnerability to climate variability and change and attempt to clarify the relationship between the concepts of vulnerability and adaptation. In search of a robust, policy-relevant framework, we define vulnerability in terms of the capacity of individuals and social groups to respond to, that is, to cope with, recover from or adapt to, any external stress placed on their livelihoods and well-being. The approach that we develop places the social and economic well-being of society at the centre of the analysis, focussing on the socio-economic and institutional constraints that limit the capacity to respond. From this perspective, the vulnerability or security of any group is determined by resource availability and by the entitlement of individuals and groups to call on these resources. We illustrate the application of this approach through the results of field research in coastal Vietnam, highlighting shifting patterns of vulnerability to tropical storm impacts at the household- and community-level in response to the current process of economic renovation and drawing conclusions concerning means of supporting the adaptive response to climate stress. Four priorities for action are identified that would improve the situation of the most exposed members of many communities: poverty reduction; risk-spreading through income diversification; respecting common property management rights; and promoting collective security. A sustainable response, we argue, must also address the underlying causes of social vulnerability, including the inequitable distribution of resources. CR *WORLD BANK, 1995, VIETN POV ASS STRAT ADGER WN, 1996, 9605 CSERGE GEC U E ADGER WN, 1997, 9721 GEC U E ANGL U ADGER WN, 1997, COMMONWEALTH FORESTR, V76, P198 ADGER WN, 1998, 9821 GEC U E ANGL U ADGER WN, 1998, WETLANDS LANDSCAPE I, P167 ADGER WN, 1999, J DEV STUD, V35, P96 ADGER WN, 1999, MITIG ADAPT STRAT GL, V4, P253 ADGER WN, 1999, WORLD DEV, V27, P249 ADGER WN, 2000, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V90, P738 ADGER WN, 2001, IN PRESS LIVING ENV BARBIER EB, 1993, GEOGR J, V159, P22 BARDHAN P, 1996, ECON J, V106, P1344 BENGTSSON L, 1996, TELLUS A, V48, P57 BENSON C, 1997, 98 OV DEV I BLAIKIE PM, 1994, RISK NATURAL HAZARDS, V1, P1 BOHLE HG, 1994, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V4, P37 BRAMMER H, 1993, CLIMATE SEA LEVEL CH, P246 BURTON I, 1997, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V36, P185 CANNON T, 1994, DISASTERS DEV ENV, P13 CHONGYIN L, 1988, ADV ATMOS SCI, V5, P107 CUTTER SL, 1996, PROG HUM GEOG, V20, P529 DOWNING TE, 1991, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V1, P365 EWEL KC, 1998, GLOBAL ECOL BIOGEOGR, V7, P83 FIELD CD, 1998, MAR POLLUT BULL, V37, P383 FOLKE C, 1992, OCEAN COAST MANAGE, V17, P5 GLANTZ MH, 1991, ENVIRONMENT, V33, P10 HEWITT K, 1997, REGIONS RISK GEOGRAP, V1, P1 HIRSCH P, 1996, AUST GEOGR, V27, P165 HOUGHTON JT, 1990, CLIMATE CHANGE IPCC HOUGHTON JT, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995 KATES RW, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P5 KELLY PM, 1994, ASIA PACIFIC J ENV D, V1, P28 KELLY PM, 2000, SCI ENV DECISION MAK, P118 KELLY PM, 2001, IN PRESS LIVING ENV KLEIN RJT, 1999, AMBIO, V28, P182 KNUTSON TR, 1998, SCIENCE, V279, P1018 LANDER MA, 1994, MON WEATHER REV, V122, P636 LI C, 1987, ACTA METEOROLOGICA S, V45, P229 LIGHTHILL J, 1994, B AM METEOROL SOC, V75, P2147 MCGREGOR GR, 1994, APPL GEOG, V15, P35 NAKAGAWA S, 1998, GLOBAL WARMING POTEN, P1 NAYLOR R, 1998, ENVIRON DEV ECON, V3, P471 NISHIMORI M, 1990, GEOG REV JAPAN A, V63, P530 ORIORDAN T, 1999, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V9, P81 PALUTIKOF JP, 1997, EC IMPACTS HOT SUMME REARDON T, 1996, WORLD DEV, V24, P901 RIBOT JC, 1996, CLIMATE VARIABILITY, V1, P1 SANDERSON S, 1994, CHANGES LAND USE LAN, P329 SAUNDERS MA, 2000, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V27, P1147 SCHNEIDER SH, 1997, ENVIRON MODEL ASSESS, V2, P229 SCOTT JC, 1976, MORAL EC PEASANT REB SEN AK, 1981, POVERTY FAMINES ESSA, V1, P1 SEN AK, 1990, POLITICAL EC HUNGER, V1, P34 SMIT B, 1996, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V33, P7 SMITH JB, 1996, ADAPTING CLIMATE CHA SMITHERS J, 1997, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V7, P129 SUGI M, 1996, P 1996 SPRING M JAP, P37 TOL RSJ, 1998, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V8, P109 TRI NH, 1998, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V8, P49 VINH TT, 1995, WORKSH MANGR PLANT S WALSH K, 1998, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V39, P199 WATSON RT, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, V1, P1 WATTS MJ, 1993, PROG HUM GEOG, V17, P43 WISNER BG, 1978, DISASTERS, V2, P80 NR 65 TC 14 J9 CLIMATIC CHANGE BP 325 EP 352 PY 2000 PD DEC VL 47 IS 4 GA 365XV UT ISI:000089976500001 ER PT J AU Nilsson, M TI Learning, frames, and environmental policy integration: the case of Swedish energy policy SO ENVIRONMENT AND PLANNING C-GOVERNMENT AND POLICY LA English DT Article C1 Stockholm Environm Inst, SE-10314 Stockholm, Sweden. RP Nilsson, M, Stockholm Environm Inst, POB 2142, SE-10314 Stockholm, Sweden. AB Environmental policy integration (EPI) has been advanced as a guiding policy principle in Europe to ensure that environmental concerns are considered across all areas of policymaking. EPI can be treated analytically as a process of policy learning. The author analyses EPI and other types of learning in Swedish energy policy from the late 1980s up to today. A systematic tracing of agendas, arguments, and policy change indicates that learning processes and partial EPI have occurred. Changing actor configurations and increasing resource dependencies have facilitated learning and EPI, driven in turn by the European deregulation processes, global policy agendas, and the development of the Nordic electricity market. However, learning and EPI has been slow, indirect, and partial-constrained by how policymaking is organised in central government. Further measures are needed to advance EPI in national sector policy, including the development of policy-level strategic assessments and stronger sector accountabilities. 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RP Davis, I, Cranfield Univ, Resilience Ctr, Humanitarian Resilence Ctr, Def Acad, Swindon SN6 8LA, Wilts, England. AB Many societies in the world live with different types of risks and the threat of disasters has always presented a major challenge to devise ways to achieve sustainable development by reducing patterns of vulnerability. Disaster reduction is therefore crucial and must have a place in national policies in order to create favourable conditions for effective and efficient hazard mitigation at various levels. This con help in increasing the resilience among communities at risk by enabling them to withstand shocks, cope with emergencies as they bounce back from the impact and adopt in new ways to cope with future threats. The aim of this paper is to explore the concept of resilience in general and what this means before, during, and after disaster impact. Case studies ore cited to indicate how resilience operates or foils to occur and why, The study defines how resilience con be developed to create sustainable systems and structures that focus on robustness, redundancy, resourcefulness and rapidity. CR 2005, BBC NEWS 0713 *IFRC RC, 2004, WORLD DIS REP 2004 *UNISDR, 2002, LIV RISK GLOB REV DI ALLENMILLS, 2005, SUNDAY TIMES 0904, P13 BRUNEAU M, 2003, EARTHQ SPECTRA, V19, P733 COMFORT L, 1999, SHARED RISK COMPLEX DAVIS I, 2001, LOCATION OPERATION E DAVIS I, 2003, EFFECTIVENESS CURREN DAVIS I, 2004, 13 WORLD C EARTHQ EN DAVIS I, 2005, RESILIENT COMMUNITIE ELLIOT L, 2005, GUARDIAN 0905, P21 HARI J, 2005, INDEPENDENT 0906, P25 HORNE J, 1998, EMPLOYMENT RELATIONS, V24, P31 JAQUEMENT I, 2004, WORLD DISASTER REPOR, CH4 MILETI D, 1999, DISASTERS DESIGN REA PELLING M, 2003, VULNERABILITY CITIES REID T, 2005, TIMES 0903, P7 WILDAVSKY A, 1991, SEARCHING SAFETY NR 18 TC 0 J9 OPEN HOUSE INT BP 11 EP 21 PY 2006 PD MAR VL 31 IS 1 GA 103LC UT ISI:000241885700003 ER PT B AU Burton, I Kates, RW White, GF TI The Environment as Hazard SO ENV HAZARD LA English DT Book AB The disastrous effects of natural hazards such as earthquakes, floods, and hurricanes are often called "Acts of God." Challenging that view, this long-awaited second edition of a now classic work depicts natural hazards as extreme events in nature that are made even more dangerous by either the acts or the neglect of people. Featuring new introductory and concluding chapters that supplement and update the original text, this book offers an understanding of how people around the world deal with fluctuations in the local natural systems of air, water, and terrain. Illustrated with vivid examples from a broad sample of countries, this volume contrasts hazards in developing countries with those in high income countries, including hurricanes in Bangladesh and the United States and earthquakes in Nicaragua and California. It then presents a theory of how modes of coping change with levels of development. C1 CR WHITE GF, 1975, ASSESSMENT RES NATUR, V1, P1 NR 1 TC 0 BP 1 EP 290 PY 1978 VL 1 ER PT J AU Metzger, MJ Schroter, D TI Towards a spatially explicit and quantitative vulnerability assessment of environmental change in Europe SO REGIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 Univ Wageningen & Res Ctr, Plant Product Syst Grp, NL-6700 AK Wageningen, Netherlands. Univ Wageningen & Res Ctr, Environm Syst Anal Grp, NL-6700 AA Wageningen, Netherlands. Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res, Dept Global Change & Nat syst, D-14412 Potsdam, Germany. RP Metzger, MJ, Univ Wageningen & Res Ctr, Plant Product Syst Grp, POB 430, NL-6700 AK Wageningen, Netherlands. AB Over the next century, society will increasingly be confronted with the impacts of global change (e.g. pollution, land use changes, and climate change). Multiple scenarios provide us with a range of possible changes in socio-economic trends, land uses and climate (i.e. exposure) and allow us to assess the response of ecosystems and changes in the services they provide (i.e. potential impacts). Since vulnerability to global change is less when society is able to adapt, it is important to provide decision makers with tools that will allow them to assess and compare the vulnerability of different sectors and regions to global change, taking into account exposure and sensitivity, as well as adaptive capacity. This paper presents a method that allows quantitative spatial analyses of the vulnerability of the human-environment system on a European scale. It is a first step towards providing stakeholders and policy makers with a spatially explicit portfolio of comparable projections of ecosystem services, providing a basis for discussion on the sustainable management of Europe's natural resources. CR *IMAGE TEAM, 2001, IMAGE 2 2 IMPL SRES MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 *IPCC, 2001, CLIM CHANG 2001 MIT *IPCC, 2001, CLIM CHANG 2001 SCI *MILL EC ASS, 2003, EC HUM WELL BEING FR *UNEP, 2002, GEO 3 GLOB ENV OUTL *WORLD CONS MON CT, 1992, GLOB BIOD STAT EARTH BUNCE RGH, 1987, BIOMASS ENERGY IND, P1272 BUNCE RGH, 1996, J ENVIRON MANAGE, V47, P37 CARTER TR, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, P145 DAILY GC, 1997, NATURES SERVICES EKBOIR J, 2002, CIMMYT 2000 2001 WOR EWERT F, 2005, AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON, V107, P101 GROTHMANN T, 2006, NAT HAZARDS, V38, P101 JONGMAN RHG, 2006, LANDSCAPE ECOL, V21, P409 KANKAANPAA S, 2004, FINNISH ENV, V707 KASPERSON JX, 2001, INT WORKSH VULN GLOB, P36 KATES RW, 2001, SCIENCE, V292, P641 KLIJN F, 1994, LANDSCAPE ECOL, V9, P89 LEEMANS R, 2004, EXTREME WEATHER DOES LUERS AL, 2003, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V13, P255 METZGER MJ, 2004, ATEAM VULNERABILITY METZGER MJ, 2005, GLOBAL ECOL BIOGEOGR, V14, P549 METZGER MJ, 2005, INT J APPL EARTH OBS, V7, P253 METZGER MJ, 2005, THESIS WAGENINGEN U MITCHELL TD, 2004, COMPREHENSIVE SET HI NAKICENOVIC N, 2000, IPCC SPECIAL REPORT OBRIEN KL, 2004, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V64, P193 PARMESAN C, 2003, NATURE, V421, P37 PETSCHELHELD G, 1999, ENVIRON MODEL ASSESS, V4, P295 ROOT TL, 2003, NATURE, V421, P57 ROUNSEVELL MDA, 2005, AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON, V107, P117 ROUNSEVELL MDA, 2006, AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON, V114, P57 RUOSTEENOJA K, 2003, FINNISH ENV, V644 SALA OE, 2000, SCIENCE, V287, P1770 SCHROTER D, 2003, 5 OP M HUM DIM GLOB SCHROTER D, 2005, MITIGATION ADAPTATIO, V10, P573 SCHROTER D, 2005, SCIENCE, V310, P1333 SHKARUBA AD, 2006, DESCRIPTION STAT EUR SITCH S, 2003, GLOBAL CHANGE BIOL, V9, P161 SMITH JB, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, P913 SMITH P, 1998, GLOB CHANGE BIOL, V4, P773 SMITH VH, 1999, ENVIRON POLLUT, V100, P179 STENSETH NC, 2002, SCIENCE, V297, P1292 TUCK G, 2006, BIOMASS BIOENERG, V30, P183 TURNER BL, 2003, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V100, P8074 VANDERMEIJDEN R, 1996, GORTERIA, V22, P1 VANITTERSUM MK, 2003, EUR J AGRON, V18, P201 WALKER BH, 2002, CONSERV ECOL, V6, P1 WALTER H, 1973, VEGETATION EARTH REL WALTHER GR, 2002, NATURE, V416, P389 WALTNERTOEWS D, 2003, FRONT ECOL ENVIRON, V1, P23 WATSON RT, 2000, LAND USE LAND USE CH YOHE GW, 2002, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V12, P25 ZAEHLE S, 2004, GEOPHYS RES ABSTR, V6, P3808 NR 55 TC 0 J9 REG ENVIRON CHANG BP 201 EP 216 PY 2006 PD DEC VL 6 IS 4 GA 115SS UT ISI:000242754700004 ER PT J AU Smit, B Cai, YL TI Climate change and agriculture in China SO GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS LA English DT Article C1 BEIJING UNIV,DEPT GEOG,BEIJING 100871,PEOPLES R CHINA. RP Smit, B, UNIV GUELPH,DEPT GEOG,GUELPH,ON N1G 2W1,CANADA. AB The implications of climate change for agriculture and food are global concerns, and they are very important for China, The country depends on an agricultural system which has evolved over thousands of years to intensively exploit environmental conditions. The pressures on the resource base are accentuated by the prospect of climate change, This paper synthesizes information from a variety of studies on Chinese agriculture and climate. Historical studies document the impacts of past climate changes and extremes, and the types of adjustments which have occurred, the vulnerability of Chinese agriculture to climate change, Climate change scenarios are assessed relative to the current distribution of agro-climatic regions and systems, Notwithstanding the enhancing effects of warming and elevated CO2 levels, expected moisture deficits and uncertain changes in the timing and frequency of critical conditions indicate that there are serious threats to the stability and adaptability of China's food production system. 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Univ Louvain, Louvain, Belgium. Univ Osnabruck, D-4500 Osnabruck, Germany. Clark Univ, Worcester, MA 01610 USA. Univ Wageningen & Res Ctr, Wageningen, Netherlands. RP Young, OR, Univ Calif Santa Barbara, Bren Sch, Santa Barbara, CA 93106 USA. AB The challenge confronting those seeking to understand the institutional dimensions of global environmental change and patterns of land-use and land-cover change is to find effective methods for analyzing the dynamics of socio-ecological systems. Such systems exhibit a number of characteristics that pose problems for the most commonly used statistical techniques and may require additional and innovative analytic tools. This article explores options available to researchers working in this field and recommends a strategy for achieving scientific progress. Statistical procedures developed in other fields of study are often helpful in addressing challenges arising in research into global change. Accordingly, we start with an assessment of some of the enhanced statistical techniques that are available for the study of socio-ecological systems. By themselves, however, even the most advanced statistical models cannot solve all the problems that arise in efforts to explain institutional effectiveness and patterns of land-use and land-cover change. We therefore proceed to an exploration of additional analytic techniques, including configurational comparisons and meta-analyses; case studies, counterfactuals, and narratives; and systems analysis and simulations. Our goal is to create a portfolio of complementary methods or, in other words, a tool kit for understanding complex human-environment interactions. When the results obtained through the use of two or more techniques converge, confidence in the robustness of key findings rises. Contradictory results, on the other hand, signal a need for additional analysis. CR *IND NAT SCI AC, 2001, GROW POP CHANG LANDS AGRAWAL A, 2001, COMMUNITIES ENV ETHN ALCAMO J, IN PRESS SCENARIOS F ALCOCK F, 2002, WORLD POLIT, V54, P437 ANGELSEN A, 1999, WORLD BANK RES OBSER, V14, P73 ANSELIN L, 2001, COMPANION THEORETICA, P310 ANTROP M, 2005, LANDSCAPE URBAN PLAN, V70, P21 AXELROD RM, 2000, HARNESSING COMPLEXIT AYRES RU, 1994, IND METABOLISM RESTR BARRETEAU O, 2001, JASSS-J ARTIF SOC S, V4, U75 BOISSAU S, 2003, SIMULATIONS GAMING, V34, P342 BREITMEIER H, 2006, ANAL INT ENV REGIMES CAMPBELL DT, 1959, PSYCHOL BULL, V56, P81 CARPENTER SR, 2004, ECOL SOC, V9, P8 CARPENTER SR, 2005, ECOSYSTEMS HUMAN WEL, V2 CHECKLAND P, 1993, SYSTEMS THINKING SYS CLIFF AD, 1973, SPATIAL AUTOCORRELAT CRUMLEY CL, 2001, NEW DIRECTIONS ANTHR DEFRIES RS, 2004, ECOSYSTEMS LAND USE EASTERLING WE, 2004, SCALE GEOGRAPHIC INQ, P55 ECKSTEIN H, 1975, HDB POLITICAL SCI, R20 FARINA A, 2000, BIOSCIENCE, V50, P313 FEARON JD, 1991, WORLD POLIT, V43, P169 FIELD CB, 2004, GLOBAL CARBON CYCLE FOSTER DR, 1998, NORTHEAST NAT, V5, P111 FOSTER DR, 2004, FORESTS TIME ENV CON GEERTZ C, 1973, INTERPRETATION CULTU GEIST HJ, 2002, BIOSCIENCE, V52, P143 GEIST HJ, 2004, BIOSCIENCE, V54, P817 GEORGE AL, 2005, CASE STUDIES THEORY GUNDERSON LH, 2002, PANARCHY UNDERSTANDI, V1, P1 HAAS PM, 1993, I EARTH SOURCES EFFE HABERL H, 2004, LAND USE POLICY, V21, P199 HELLSTROM E, 1998, FOREST SCI, V44, P254 HOLLING CS, 1978, ADAPTIVE ENV ASSESSM HOLLING CS, 2001, ECOSYSTEMS, V4, P390 HOLLING CS, 2002, ECOSYSTEMS, V5, P319 HOMEWOOD K, 2001, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V98, P12544 HOSHINO S, 2001, LAND USE POLICY, V18, P75 JANSSEN MA, 2002, COMPLEXITY ECOSYSTEM JANSSEN MA, 2006, ECOL SOC, V11, P15 KARLSSON S, 2000, MULTILAYERED GOVERNA KASPERSON JX, 1995, REGIONS RISK, V1, P1 KEYS E, 2005, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V15, P320 KING G, 1994, DESIGNING SOCIAL INQ KOHLER TA, 2000, DYNAMICS HUMAN PRIMA KRAUSMANN F, 2002, ECOL ECON, V41, P177 LAMBIN EF, 2003, ANNU REV ENV RESOUR, V28, P205 LUTERBACHER U, 2001, INT RELATIONS GLOBAL MILES EL, 2002, ENV REGIME EFFECTIVE MITCHELL R, 1999, EFFECTIVENESS INT EN, P33 MITCHELL RB, 1998, J ENV DEV, V7, P4 MORAN EF, 2005, SEEING FOREST TREES MUNTON D, 1999, EFFECTIVENESS INT EN, P325 MYINT T, 2003, INDIANA J GLOBAL LEG, V10, P287 ONEILL RV, 1988, SCALES GLOBAL CHANGE, P29 ORESKES N, 1994, SCIENCE, V263, P641 OVERMARS KP, 2003, ECOL MODEL, V164, P257 PAHLWOSTL C, IN PRESS ENV MODELLI, V21 PAHLWOSTL C, 2002, AQUAT SCI, V64, P394 PAHLWOSTL C, 2004, J COMMUNITY APPL SOC, V14, P193 PARKER DC, 2003, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V93, P314 PETERSON GD, 2000, ECOL ECON, V35, P323 PETERSON GD, 2003, CONSERV BIOL, V17, P358 PFAFF ASP, 1999, J ENVIRON ECON MANAG, V37, P26 POLSKY C, 2001, AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON, V85, P133 POLSKY C, 2004, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V94, P549 PONTIUS RG, 2002, PHOTOGRAMM ENG REM S, V68, P1041 RAGIN CC, 1987, COMP METHOD QUALITAT RAGIN CC, 2000, FUZZY SET SOCIAL SCI RAMAKRISHNAN PS, 1998, CONSERVIGN SACRED BI RAMAKRISHNAN PS, 2003, METHODOLOGICAL ISSUE REPETTO R, 2001, MAR POLICY, V25, P251 RINDFUSS RR, 2004, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V101, P13976 ROE E, 1998, TAKING COMPLEXITY SE RUDEL TK, 2005, TROPICAL FORESTS REG SABATIE RPA, 1999, THEORIES POLICY PROC SCHROTER D, 2005, MITIGATION ADAPTATIO, V10, P573 SCOONES I, 1999, ANNU REV ANTHROPOL, V28, P479 SNIJDERS TAB, 1999, MULTILEVEL ANAL INTR STOKKE OS, 2004, REGIME CONSEQUENCES TETLOCK P, 1996, COUNTERFACTUAL THOUG TURNER BL, 1993, POPULATION GROWTH AG TURNER BL, 2003, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V100, P8074 TURNER BL, 2004, INTEGRATED LAND CHAN UNDERDAL A, 2004, REGIME CONSEQUENCES VANDERHEIJDEN K, 1996, SCENARIOS ART STRATE VANDERLEEUW SE, 2004, CYBERNET SYST, V35, P117 VERBURG PH, 2000, ECOSYSTEMS, V3, P369 VERBURG PH, 2004, GEOJOURNAL, V61, P309 VERBURG PH, 2004, GEOPH MONOG SERIES, V153, P217 VICTOR DG, 1998, IMPLEMENTATION EFFEC WALKER BH, 2002, CONSERV ECOL, V6, P1 WALTERS CJ, 1986, ADAPTIVE MANAGEMENT WALTNERTOEWS D, 2003, ECOSYSTEM SUSTAINABI YOUN GOR, 2002, MILLENNIAL REFLECTIO, P176 YOUN GOR, 2006, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V16, P304 YOUNG OR, 1999, EFFECTIVENESS INT EN YOUNG OR, 1999, GOVERNANCE WORLD AFF NR 99 TC 1 J9 ECOL SOC BP 31 PY 2006 PD DEC VL 11 IS 2 GA 123FD UT ISI:000243280800038 ER PT J AU Laidler, GJ TI Inuit and scientific perspectives on the relationship between sea ice and climate change: The ideal complement? SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Review C1 Univ Toronto, Dept Geog, Mississauga, ON L5L 1C6, Canada. RP Laidler, GJ, Univ Toronto, Dept Geog, 3359 Mississauga Rd N, Mississauga, ON L5L 1C6, Canada. AB Sea ice is influential in regulating energy exchanges between the ocean and the atmosphere, and has figured prominently in scientific studies of climate change and climate feedbacks. However, sea ice is also a vital component of everyday life in Inuit communities of the circumpolar Arctic. Therefore, it is important to understand the links between the potential impacts of climate change on Arctic sea ice extent, distribution, and thickness as well as the related consequences for northern coastal populations. This paper explores the relationship between sea ice and climate change from both scientific and Inuit perspectives. Based on an overview of diverse literature the experiences, methods, and goals which differentiate local and scientific sea ice knowledge are examined. These efforts are considered essential background upon which to develop more accurate assessments of community vulnerability to climate, and resulting sea ice, change. Inuit and scientific perspectives may indeed be the ideal complement when investigating the links between sea ice and climate change, but effective and appropriate conceptual bridges need to be built between the two types of expertise. The complementary nature of these knowledge systems may only be realized, in a practical sense, if significant effort is expended to: (i) understand sea ice from both Inuit and scientific perspectives, along with their underlying differences; (ii) investigate common interests or concerns; (iii) establish meaningful and reciprocal research partnerships with Inuit communities; (iv) engage in, and improve, collaborative research methods; and, (v) maintain ongoing dialogue. 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RP Kamga, FM, Univ Yaounde 1, Fac Sci, Dept Phys, Atmospher Sci Lab, POB 812, Yaounde, Cameroon. AB The ever-increasing concentration of greenhouse gases in the earth's atmosphere is projected to cause important changes in climate patterns. In the Sahelian part of Cameroon. changes in temperature and rainfall would have an important impact on the availability of water resources. To evaluate vulnerability, future runoff over the economically important Upper Benue River is simulated using a hydrological water balance model. Two climate change experiments (HadCM2 and ECHAM4/OPYC3) provide the necessary input variables to the model, under various scenarios of IPCC, the Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change. By 2100, depending on climate sensitivity, scenarios and climate models. rainfall is expected to increase in the range of 4-13% and temperature from 1 to 3 degreesC. These lead to changes of 4-11 % in annual potential evapotranspiration. Under the same conditions, changes in annual river flow range from -3 to +18%, i.e, -7 to +45 mm. The 45 min maximum expected annual increase falls within the current variability of the river discharge, characterised by a standard deviation of 76 mm. Future development planning in the valley must take into account these impacts and their effects, both positive and negative. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. CR CASENAVE A, 1978, CAH ORSTOM H, V15, P3 CULLEN MJP, 1993, METEOROL MAG, V122, P81 HOUGHTON JT, 1996, CLIM CHANG 1995 SCI HULME M, 1995, ENERG POLICY, V23, P347 HULME M, 2000, USING CLIMATE SCENAR KAMGA FM, 2000, THEOR APPL CLIMATOL, V67, P97 KATZ RW, 1992, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V21, P289 MITCHELL JFB, 1995, NATURE, V376, P501 MONTHE J, 1998, EVALUATION IMPACTS C OLIVRY JC, 1986, FLEUVES RIVIERES CAM PENMAN HL, 1948, P ROY SOC LOND A MAT, V193, P120 ROECKNER E, 1996, 218 M PLANCK I MET TURC L, 1954, ANN AGRON, V5, P491 YATES D, 1996, WATER RESOUR DEV, V12, P121 NR 14 TC 2 J9 J HYDROL BP 145 EP 156 PY 2001 PD OCT 31 VL 252 IS 1-4 GA 469VQ UT ISI:000170837100010 ER PT J AU Rahman, AU Kadi, MA Rockstrom, J TI Workshop 7 (synthesis): trade-offs in water for food and environmental security - urban/agricultural trade-off SO WATER SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY LA English DT Article C1 Conseil Gen Dev Agricole, Rabat Inst, Rabat, Morocco. IHE Delft, NL-2601 DA Delft, Netherlands. RP Rahman, AU, 40733 Laguna Pl, Fremont, CA 94539 USA. AB Severe stresses are being generated by increasing demand for competing water uses, above all between agriculture and urban needs. Amongst potential solutions considered, two dominated the workshop: virtual water and water reuse. Virtual water implies indirect water use: water-poor countries importing food rather than attempting self-sufficiency and thereby keeping their real water resources for economically more beneficial uses. There are serious political and economic risks associated; one proposed solution is an international virtual water trading council. Improved forms of water reuse, particularly use of treated urban wastewater for irrigation, can maximise the use made of limited supply. NR 0 TC 1 J9 WATER SCI TECHNOL BP 191 EP 193 PY 2002 VL 45 IS 8 GA 552DL UT ISI:000175603500030 ER PT J AU CLARK, WC TI SCALES OF CLIMATE IMPACTS SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Article RP CLARK, WC, INT INST APPL SYST ANAL,A-2361 LAXENBURG,AUSTRIA. 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Delft Hydraul, NL-2600 MH Delft, Netherlands. RP Nicholls, RJ, Middlesex Univ, Flood Hazard Res Ctr, Enfield EN3 4SF, Middx, England. AB To develop improved estimates of (1) flooding due to storm surges, and (2) wetland losses due to accelerated sea-level rise, the work of Hoozemans et al. (1993) is extended to a dynamic analysis. It considers the effects of several simultaneously changing factors, including: (1) global sea-level rise and subsidence; (2) increasing coastal population; and (3) improving standards of flood defence (using GNP/capita as an "ability-to-pay" parameter). The global sea-level rise scenarios are derived from two General Circulation Model (GCM) experiments of the Hadley Centre: (1) the HadCM2 greenhouse gas only ensemble experiment and (2) the more recent HadCM3 greenhouse gas only experiment. In all cases there is a global rise in sea level of about 38 cm from 1990 to the 2080s. No other climate change is considered. Relative to an evolving reference scenario without sea-level rise, this analysis suggests that the number of people hooded by storm surge in a typical year will be more than five times higher due to sea-level rise by the 2080s. Many of these people will experience annual or more frequent flooding, suggesting that the increase in flood frequency will be more than nuisance level and some response (increased protection, migration, etc.) will be required. In absolute terms, the areas most vulnerable to flooding are the southern Mediterranean, Africa, and most particularly, South and South-east Asia where there is a concentration of low-lying populated deltas. However, the Caribbean, the Indian Ocean islands and the Pacific Ocean small islands may experience the largest relative increase in flood risk. By the 2080s, sea-level rise could cause the loss of up to 22% of the world's coastal wetlands. When combined with other losses due to direct human action, up to 70% of the world's coastal wetlands could be lost by the 2080s, although then is considerable uncertainty. Therefore, sea-level rise would reinforce other adverse trends of wetland loss. The largest losses due to sea-level rise will be around the Mediterranean and Baltic and to a lesser extent on the Atlantic coast of Central and North America and the smaller islands of the Caribbean. Collectively, these results show that a relatively small global rise in sea level could have significant adverse impacts if there is no adaptive response. Given the "commitment to sea-level rise" irrespective of any realistic future emissions policy, there is a need to start strategic planning of appropriate responses now. Given that coastal flooding and wetland loss are already important problems, such planning could have immediate benefits. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. 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RP Farbotko, C, Univ Tasmania, Sch Geog & Environm Studies, Private Bag 78, Hobart, Tas 7001, Australia. AB Tuvalu, a place whose image in the 'West' is as a small island state, insignificant and remote on the world stage, is becoming remarkably prominent in connection with the contemporary issue of climate change-related sea-level rise. My aim in this paper is to advance understanding of the linkages between climate change and island places, by exploring the discursive negotiation of the identity of geographically distant islands and island peoples in the Australian news media. Specifically, I use discourse analytic methods to critically explore how, and to what effects, various representations of the Tuvaluan islands and people in an Australian broadsheet, the Sydney Morning Herald, emphasize difference between Australia and Tuvalu. My hypothesis is that implicating climate change in the identity of people and place can constitute Tuvaluans as 'tragic victims' of environmental displacement, marginalizing discourses of adaptation for Tuvaluans and other inhabitants of low-lying islands, and silencing alternative constructions of Tuvaluan identity that could emphasize resilience and resourcefulness. By drawing attention to the problematic ways that island identities are constituted in climate change discourse in the news media, I advocate a more critical approach to the production and consumption of representations of climate change. 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Agrifood Res Finland, Jokioinen 31600, Finland. RP Ouyang, ZY, Chinese Acad Sci, Ecoenvironm Sci Res Ctr, Beijing 100085, Peoples R China. AB Limited water resources, increasing demand, low use efficiency, and serious pollution result in severe water resource difficult in China. The evaluation of addressing water problems and the search for effective countermeasures that ensure sustainable water use are key to China's sustainable development. The "compound water security" consists of food security, life, security, environmental security, and economic security. By establishing a conceptual model, the water security of China has been simulated in-terms of four scenarios called BAU(the business-as-usual scenario), TEC(the technology and economics scenario), IVL(the institution, values, and lifestyles scenario) and TSD(toward sustainable development) in this paper. The results indicated that water crises, especially water shortages, are being experienced now and will continue to do so for a relatively long time in China and that it is possible to reach a basic balance between supply and demand of water and grain under the TSD developing pattern by a series of approaches including technological innovation, policy adjustments, and behaviour inducement. CR *ESCAP, 1997, CHIN WAT RES THEIR U *MWR, 2002, CHIN WAT RES B 2001 *NBSC, 2001, CHIN STAT YB 2000 *NBSC, 2002, CHIN STAT YB 2001 *SEIB TI, 1997, WEAP US GUID VERS 97 *SEPA, 2002, CHIN ENV YB 2001 *WORLD BANK, 1997, CLEAR WAT BLUE SKIES ALCAMO J, 2000, ANAL 3 WATER SCENARI BROWN K, 2002, SCIENCE, V297, P926 BROWN LR, 1995, WHO WILL FEED CHINA COSGROVE WJ, 1998, WATER POLICY, V1, P115 FALKENMARK M, 1974, AMBIO, V3, P114 GALLOPIN G, 1999, 3 GLOBAL WATER SCENA GALLOPIN G, 2000, WORLD WATER SCENARIO, P62 GLEICK PH, 1996, WATER INT, V21, P83 GLEICK PH, 2000, WORLD WATER SCENARIO, P27 HASHIMOTO R, 2002, INT REV ENV STRATEGI, V3, P222 JIN L, 2001, WATER POLICY, V3, P215 JOHNSON N, 2001, SCIENCE, V292, P1071 LIU X, 2000, ACTA PHARMACOL SIN, V21, P19 LUBCHENCO J, 1998, SCIENCE, V279, P491 LUIJTEN JC, 2001, AGR SYST, V70, P603 RIJSBERMAN FR, 2000, WORLD WATER SCENARIO, P76 STRZEPEK KM, 2000, WORLD WATER SCENARIO, P46 VOROSMARTY CJ, 2000, SCIENCE, V289, P284 WANG RS, 1996, CHINESE SCI BULL, V41, P47 NR 26 TC 0 J9 J ENVIRON SCI-CHINA BP 765 EP 769 PY 2004 VL 16 IS 5 GA 851LY UT ISI:000223687800013 ER PT J AU HAQUE, CE BLAIR, D TI VULNERABILITY TO TROPICAL CYCLONES - EVIDENCE FROM THE APRIL 1991 CYCLONE IN COASTAL BANGLADESH SO DISASTERS LA English DT Article C1 UNIV WINNIPEG,DEPT GEOG,WINNIPEG R3B 2E9,MANITOBA,CANADA. RP HAQUE, CE, BRANDON UNIV,DEPT GEOG,BRANDON R7A 6A9,MANITOBA,CANADA. AB In this article we report the results of a survey conducted in two coastal communities of Bangladesh less than two weeks after they were hit by the severe cyclone of April 29, 1991. It was found that almost all of the surveyed heads of households had received early warnings of the cyclone. Nevertheless, a majority of the respondents did not leave their homes to seek shelter. The two most common reasons given for this passive reaction were (i) fear of burglary and (ii) disbelief of the warnings. Thus, it appears that the existing system of early warnings is not having its intended effect and that it, and related disaster mitigation policies, need to be revised. Some suggestions are made as to what could be done. CR 1991, WEEKLY CLIMATE B, V91 ALI A, 1980, MAUSAM, V31, P517 ANTHES RA, 1982, MONO AM MET SOC, V41 CHOWDHURY M, 1988, DISASTERS, V12, P294 CROSSETTE B, 1991, NY TIMES 0505 DAS PK, 1974, Q J ROY METEOR SOC, V100, P437 DUBE SK, 1982, MAUSAM, V33, P445 EMANUEL KA, 1988, AM SCI, V76, P371 FRANK NL, 1971, B AM METEOROLOGICAL, V52, P438 HAQUE CE, 1988, HUM ECOL, V16, P421 HASTENRATH S, 1979, CLIMATIC ATLAS IND 1 ISLAM MA, 1989, MAY INT C BANGL FLOO ISLAM N, 1976, SQUATTERS BANGLADESH JOHNS B, 1983, COMPUT FLUIDS, V11, P161 MISHRA DK, 1982, DISASTERS, V6, P250 MOOLEY DA, 1980, MON WEATHER REV, V108, P1647 MURTY TS, 1984, BULL, V212 MURTY TS, 1986, PROG OCEANOGR, V16, P195 MURTY TS, 1988, NAT HAZARDS, V1, P303 RAGHAVENDRA VK, 1973, INDIAN J METEOROL GE, V24, P125 RAO KN, 1981, CLIMATES SO W ASIA W, V9, P257 RIEHL H, 1979, CLIMATE WEATHER TROP ROGERS P, 1989, E WATER STUDY STRATE SEVENHUYSEN GP, 1991, REPORT CYCLONE DISAS SHAH BV, 1983, DISASTERS, V7, P202 WHITE AU, 1974, NATURAL HAZARDS LOCA, P255 NR 26 TC 6 J9 DISASTERS BP 217 EP 229 PY 1992 PD SEP VL 16 IS 3 GA JN728 UT ISI:A1992JN72800003 ER PT J AU Easterling, WE Apps, M TI Assessing the consequences of climate change for food and forest resources: A view from the IPCC SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 Penn State Univ, Dept Geog, University Pk, PA 16802 USA. Pacific Forestry Ctr, Canadian Forest Serv, Nat Resources Canada, Victoria, BC, Canada. RP Easterling, W, Penn State Univ, Dept Geog, University Pk, PA 16802 USA. AB Important findings on the consequences of climate change for agriculture and forestry from the recently completed Third Assessment Report (TAR) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) are reviewed, with emphasis on new knowledge that emerged since the Second Assessment Report (SAR). The State-Pressure-Response-Adaptation model is used to organize the review. The major findings are: Constant or declining food prices are expected for at least the next 25 yr, although food security problems will persist in many developing countries as those countries deal with population increases, political crisis, poor resource endowments, and steady environmental degradation. Most economic model projections suggest that low relative food prices will extend beyond the next 25 yr, although our confidence in these projections erodes farther out into the 21st century. Although deforestation rates may have decreased since the early 1990s, degradation with a loss of forest productivity and biomass has occurred at large spatial scales as a result of fragmentation, non-sustainable practices and infrastructure development. According to United Nations estimates, approximately 23% of all forest and agricultural lands were classified as degraded over the period since World War II. At a worldwide scale, global change pressures (climate change, land-use practices and changes in atmospheric chemistry) are increasingly affecting the supply of goods and services from forests. The most realistic experiments to date - free air experiments in an irrigated environment - indicate that C-3 agricultural crops in particular respond favorably to gradually increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations (e.g., wheat yield increases by an average of 28%), although extrapolation of experimental results to real world production where several factors (e.g., nutrients, temperature, precipitation, and others) are likely to be limiting at one time or another remains problematic. Moreover, little is known of crop response to elevated CO2 in the tropics, as most of the research has been conducted in the mid-latitudes. Research suggests that for some crops, for example rice, CO2 benefits may decline quickly as temperatures warm beyond optimum photosynthetic levels. However, crop plant growth may benefit relatively more from CO2 enrichment in drought conditions than in wet conditions. The unambiguous separation of the relative influences of elevated ambient CO2 levels, climate change responses, and direct human influences (such as present and historical land-use change) on trees at the global and regional scales is still problematic. In some regions such as the temperate and boreal forests, climate change impacts, direct human interventions (including nitrogen-bearing pollution), and the legacy of past human activities (land-use change) appear to be more significant than CO2 fertilization effects. This subject is, however an area of continuing scientific debate, although there does appear to be consensus that any CO2 fertilization effect will saturate (disappear) in the coming century. Modeling studies suggest that any warming above current temperatures will diminish crop yields in the tropics while up to 2-3 degrees C of warming in the mid-latitudes may be tolerated by crops, especially if accompanied by increasing precipitation. The preponderance of developing countries lies in or near the tropics; this finding does not bode well for food production in those countries. Where direct human pressures do not mask them, there is increasing evidence of the impacts of climate change on forests associated with changes in natural disturbance regimes, growing season length, and local climatic extremes. Recent advances in modeling of vegetation response suggest that transient effects associated with dynamically responding ecosystems to climate change will increasingly dominate over the next century and that during these changes the global forest resource is likely to be adversely affected. The ability of livestock producers to adapt their herds to the physiological stress of climate change appears encouraging due to a variety of techniques for dealing with climate stress, but this issue is not well constrained, in part because of the general lack of experimentation and simulations of livestock adaptation to climate change. Crop and livestock farmers who have sufficient access to capital and technologies should be able to adapt their farming systems to climate change. Substantial changes in their mix of crops and livestock production may be necessary, however, as considerable costs could be involved in this process because investments in learning and gaining experience with different crops or irrigation. Impacts of climate change on agriculture after adaptation are estimated to result in small percentage changes in overall global income. Nations with large resource endowments (i.e., developed countries) will fare better in adapting to climate change than those with poor resource endowments (i.e., developing countries and countries in transition, especially in the tropics and subtropics) which will fare worse. This, in turn, could worsen income disparities between developed and developing countries. Although local forest ecosystems will be highly affected, with potentially significant local economic impacts, it is believed that, at regional and global scales, the global supply of timber and non-wood goods and services will adapt through changes in the global market place. However, there will be regional shifts in market share associated with changes in forest productivity with climate change: in contrast to the findings of the SAR, recent studies suggest that the changes will favor producers in developing countries, possibly at the expense of temperate and boreal suppliers. Global agricultural vulnerability is assessed by the anticipated effects of climate change on food prices. Based on the accumulated evidence of modeling studies, a global temperature rise of greater than 2.5 degrees C is likely to reverse the trend of falling real food prices. This would greatly stress food security in many developing countries. 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Univ Colorado, Inst Behav Sci, Nat Hazards Ctr, Boulder, CO USA. RP Tierney, K, Univ Colorado, Dept Sociol, Boulder, CO 80309 USA. CR ANDERTON DL, 1994, DEMOGRAPHY, V31, P229 BEEN V, 1994, YALE LAW J, V103, P1383 BLAIKIE PM, 1994, RISK NATURAL HAZARDS, V1, P1 BOLIN R, 1998, NORTHRIDGE EARTHQUA BULLARD RD, 2000, DUMPING DIXIE RACE C CUTTER SL, 2000, AM HAZARDSCAPES REGI CUTTER SL, 2005, SOC SCI RES COUNC FO DOWNEY L, 2005, SOC FORCES, V83, P971 HEWITT K, 1983, INTERPRETATIONS CALA KLINENBERG E, 2002, HEAT WAVE SOCIAL AUT MITCHELL JT, 1999, SOC SCI QUART, V80, P229 PEACOCK WG, 1997, HURRICANE ANDREW ETH SEN AK, 1981, POVERTY FAMINES ESSA, V1, P1 NR 13 TC 0 J9 CONTEMP SOCIOL BP 207 EP 212 PY 2006 PD MAY VL 35 IS 3 GA 044QY UT ISI:000237688600002 ER PT J AU Canadell, JG Ciais, P Cox, P Heimann, M TI Quantifying, understanding and managing the carbon cycle in the next decades SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 CSIRO, Div Atmospher Res, Global Carbon Project, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia. Ctr Etud Orme Merisiers, Lab Sci Climat & Environm, F-91191 Gif Sur Yvette, France. Hadley Ctr Climate Predict & Res, Met Off, Exeter EX10 9SQ, Devon, England. Max Planck Inst Biogeochem, D-07701 Jena, Germany. RP Canadell, JG, CSIRO, Div Atmospher Res, Global Carbon Project, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia. AB The human perturbation of the carbon cycle via the release of fossil CO2 and land use change is now well documented and agreed to be the principal cause of climate change. We address three fundamental research areas that require major development if we were to provide policy relevant knowledge for managing the carbon-climate system over the next few decades. The three research areas are: (i) carbon observations and multiple constraint data assimilation; (ii) vulnerability of the carbon-climate system; and (iii) carbon sequestration and sustainable development. 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RP Arthurton, RS, British Geol Survey, Keyworth NG12 5GG, Notts, England. AB The fast-growing, coastal megacities of the Asia-Pacific region are expanding into areas that are vulnerable to marine-related physical natural hazards, or, because of physical environmental changes, will become increasingly vulnerable within the timescale of city planning. The hazards comprise those that are due to extreme events such as storm surge and tsunami which may be catastrophic in their impacts; and those that relate to continuing changes over the long-term, notably global sea-lever rise, sedimentary consolidation and coastal erosion. The latter may be exacerbated by human activities such as the increasing production of 'greenhouse' gases and over-abstraction of groundwater, and, while not threatening catastrophic loss of life or destruction of property, do have important economic and social implications for the future. There are two complementary approaches to hazard mitigation - constraining the hazard, and reducing vulnerability to the hazard. The contributions that science can make in the planning and implementation of sustainable adaptive measures are to improve the quantification of the incidence and severity of the various hazards, establishing realistic timescales of incidence, estimating return periods; and to establish the geographical limits of vulnerability to the hazards in a range of likely scenarios over timescales appropriate to the planning cycle. Contemporary, high risk, hazard scenarios for existing city developments demand an approach which focuses on effective warning networks and emergency planning; long-term, incremental hazards that are forecast to affect both developed and periurban areas can be addressed with a strategic planning approach, involving relocation and capital protective works. The selection of strategic measures demands the best possible predictive information on hazards and on vulnerability, including its full socio-economic evaluation so that the costs and benefits of the possible mitigation options can be realistically assessed. A predictive capacity, developed through modelling, requires the collection of reliable baseline and monitoring data relating to the hazards over a range of timescales in local, regional and global perspectives. (C) 1998 Natural Environment Research Council. Elsevier Science Ltd. 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Univ Calif Santa Barbara, Bren Sch Environm Sci & Management, Santa Barbara, CA 93106 USA. RP Beighley, RE, Univ Calif Santa Barbara, Inst Marine Sci, Santa Barbara, CA 93106 USA. AB To investigate the impacts of urbanization and climatic fluctuations on stream flow magnitude and variability in a Mediterranean climate, the HEC-HMS rainfall/runoff model is used to simulate streamflow for a 14-year period (October 1, 1988, to September 30, 2002) in the Atascadero Creek watershed located along the southern coast of California for 1929, 1998, and 2050 (estimated) land use conditions (8, 38 and 52 percent urban, respectively). The 14-year period experienced a range of climatic conditions caused mainly by El Nino-Southern Oscillation variations. A geographic information system is used to delineate the watershed and parameterize the model, which is calibrated using data from two streamflow and eight rainfall gauges. Urbanization is shown to increase peak discharges and runoff volume while decreasing streamflow variability. In all cases, the annual and 14-year distributions of streamflow are shown to be highly skewed, with the annual maximum 24 hours of discharge accounting for 22 to 52 percent of the annual runoff and the maximum ten days of discharge from an average El Nino year producing 10 to 15 percent of the total 14-year discharge. For the entire period of urbanization (1929 to 2050), the average increase in annual maximum discharges and runoff was 45 m(3)/s (300 percent) and 15 cm (350 percent), respectively. Additionally, the projected increase in urbanization from 1998 to 2050 is half the increase from 1929 to 1998; however, increases in runoff (22 m(3)/s and 7 cm) are similar for both scenarios because of the region's spatial development pattern. CR *CADOF, 2001, INT COUNT POP PROJ S *NOAA, 2001, WR267 NWS NOAA US DE *NRCS, 1986, URB HYDR SMALL WAT *NRCS, 1995, USDA MISC PUBL, V1527 *SBCPD, 2000, SANT BARB COUNT 2030 *USACE, 2000, HEC HMS TECHN REF MA *USGS, 1999, 10699 USGS ANDERSON JR, 1976, 964 US GEOL SURV BARNES HH, 1967, 1849 US GEOL SURV BEIGHLEY RE, 2002, J HYDROL ENG, V7, P27 CANDAU J, 2002, THESIS U CALIFORNIA CHOW VT, 1959, OPEN CHANNEL HYDRAUL CLARKE KC, 1997, ENVIRON PLANN B, V24, P247 DALY C, 1994, J APPL METEOROL, V33, P140 FIELD CB, 1999, CONFRONTING CLIMATE JENSON SK, 1988, PHOTOGRAMM ENG REMOT, V54, P1593 KIM J, 2002, J CLIMATE, V14, P1926 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 MOGLEN GE, 2000, ASCE J HYDROLOGIC EN, V5, P190 MONTEVERDI J, 1997, 9737 NAT OC ATM ADM OCALLAGHAN JF, 1984, COMPUT VISION GRAPH, V28, P323 OLIVERA F, 2001, J HYDROL ENG, V6, P524 PINOL J, 1997, HYDROL PROCESS, V11, P1287 RAWLS WJ, 1983, J HYDRAUL ENG-ASCE, V109, P62 RIBOLZI O, 2000, J HYDROL, V233, P242 SMITH CA, 2000, INT J CLIMATOL, V20, P1543 TARBOTON DG, 1991, HYDROL PROCESS, V5, P81 VIESSMAN W, 1977, INTRO HYDROLOGY NR 28 TC 0 J9 J AM WATER RESOUR ASSOC BP 1419 EP 1433 PY 2003 PD DEC VL 39 IS 6 GA 765BL UT ISI:000188247200008 ER PT J AU Henry, B Mitchell, C Cowie, A Woldring, O Carter, J TI A regional interpretation of rules and good practice for greenhouse accounting: northern Australian savanna systems SO AUSTRALIAN JOURNAL OF BOTANY LA English DT Article C1 Cooperat Res Ctr Greenhouse Accounting, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia. Queensland Dept Nat Resources & Mines, Indooroopilly, Qld 4068, Australia. New S Wales Dept Primary Ind, Beecroft, NSW 2119, Australia. New S Wales Greenhouse Off, Sydney, NSW 2001, Australia. RP Henry, B, Cooperat Res Ctr Greenhouse Accounting, GPO Box 475, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia. AB Land-use change, particularly clearing of forests for agriculture, has contributed significantly to the observed rise in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration. Concern about the impacts on climate has led to efforts to monitor and curtail the rapid increase in concentrations of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Internationally, much of the current focus is on the Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Although electing to not ratify the Protocol, Australia, as a party to the UNFCCC, reports on national greenhouse gas emissions, trends in emissions and abatement measures. In this paper we review the complex accounting rules for human activities affecting greenhouse gas fluxes in the terrestrial biosphere and explore implications and potential opportunities for managing carbon in the savanna ecosystems of northern Australia. Savannas in Australia are managed for grazing as well as for cultural and environmental values against a background of extreme climate variability and disturbance, notably. re. Methane from livestock and non-CO2 emissions from burning are important components of the total greenhouse gas emissions associated with management of savannas. International developments in carbon accounting for the terrestrial biosphere bring a requirement for better attribution of change in carbon stocks and more detailed and spatially explicit data on such characteristics of savanna ecosystems as. re regimes, production and type of fuel for burning, drivers of woody encroachment, rates of woody regrowth, stocking rates and grazing impacts. The benefits of improved biophysical information and of understanding the impacts on ecosystem function of natural factors and management options will extend beyond greenhouse accounting to better land management for multiple objectives. CR *AGO, 2002, AUSTR 3 NAT COMM CLI *AGO, 2003, GREENH GAS EM LAND U *AGO, 2004, TRACK KYOT TARG *AGO, 2005, NAT GREENH INV 2003 *IPCC, 2000, GOOD PRACT GUID UNC *IPCC, 2003, GOOD PRACT GUID LAND *NSW GOV, 2003, GREENH GAS BENCHM RU *WBCSD WRI, 2004, GHG PROT CORP ACC RE *WBGU GERM ADV COU, 2003, CLIM PROT STRAT 21 C ARCHER S, 2001, GLOBAL BIOGEOCHEMICA, P115 ASH AJ, 1995, RANGELANDS SUSTAINAB, P19 BELL W, 2005, CLIMATE CHANGE INT C BELLAMY PH, 2005, NATURE, V437, P245 BERRY SL, 2002, AUST J BOT, V50, P511 BRISTOW M, 2004, 04025 RIRDC JOINT VE BURROWS WH, 2002, GLOBAL CHANGE BIOL, V8, P769 CARTER JO, 2000, APPL SEASONAL CLIMAT, P329 COOK GD, 2002, J VEG SCI, V13, P413 COOK GD, 2005, AUST J BOT, V53, P621 COX PM, 2000, NATURE, V408, P184 DAY KJ, 1977, TECHNICAL B DEP NO T, V22 FARQUHAR GD, 2003, SCIENCE, V299, P1997 FENSHAM RJ, 1999, J APPL ECOL, V36, P1035 FENSHAM RJ, 2003, J ENVIRON MANAGE, V68, P409 FENSHAM RJ, 2005, AUST J BOT, V53, P631 FISHER R, 2003, INT J WILDLAND FIRE, V12, P369 GRAETZ RD, 2003, 64 CSIRO GRUBER N, 2004, SCOPE SER, V62, P45 GUSTAVSSON L, 2000, ENERG POLICY, V28, P935 HENRY BK, 2002, RANGELAND J, V24, P112 HOUGHTON JT, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995 HOUGHTON JT, 1997, REVISED 1996 GUIDELI HOUGHTON RA, 1999, TELLUS B, V51, P298 HOUSE JI, 2002, GLOBAL CHANGE BIOL, V8, P1047 HUTLEY LB, 2005, AUST J BOT, V53, P663 KIRSCHBAUM MUF, 2001, ENV SCI POLICY, V4, P73 KIRSCHBAUM MUF, 2004, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V67, P417 KORONTZI S, 2003, J ARID ENVIRON, V54, P395 MARSHALL GJ, 2004, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V31 MATTHEWS HD, 2004, CLIM DYNAM, V22, P461 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 MCKEON GM, 2004, PASTURE DEGRADATION NOBLE IR, 2001, CLIM POLICY, V1, P5 PITMAN AJ, 2004, J GEOPHYS RES-ATMOS, V109 RICKERT KG, 2000, FIELD LAB METHODS GR, P29 RODERICK ML, 2001, OECOLOGIA, V129, P21 RUSSELLSMITH J, 2003, INT J WILDLAND FIRE, V12, P283 RUSSELLSMITH J, 2003, J GEOPHYS RES D, V108 RUSSELLSMITH J, 2004, J BIOGEOGR, V31, P1305 SABINE CL, 2004, SCOPE SER, V62, P17 SCHOLES RJ, 1996, ENV PROFESSIONAL, V18, P96 SCURLOCK JMO, 1998, GLOB CHANGE BIOL, V4, P229 SHARP BR, 2003, J BIOGEOGR, V30, P783 STOKES C, 2005, AUST J BOT, V53, P677 SYKTUS J, 2004, SPARC 2004 1 6 AUG 2 VANAUKEN OW, 2000, ANNU REV ECOL SYST, V31, P197 VIGILANTE T, 2004, J BIOGEOGR, V31, P1317 WHITE WB, 2003, INT J CLIMATOL, V23, P631 WILLIAMS J, 1985, AGRORESEARCH SEMIARI WILLIAMS RJ, 2002, FLAMMABLE AUSTR FIRE WILLIAMS RJ, 2004, FUNCT PLANT BIOL, V31, P415 YIBARBUK D, 2001, J BIOGEOGR, V28, P325 NR 62 TC 1 J9 AUST J BOT BP 589 EP 605 PY 2005 VL 53 IS 7 GA 988OE UT ISI:000233609700002 ER PT J AU BROWN, N TI CLIMATE-CHANGE AND HUMAN HISTORY - SOME INDICATIONS FROM EUROPE, AD400-1400 SO ENVIRONMENTAL POLLUTION LA English DT Article RP BROWN, N, UNIV OXFORD,ENVIRONM CHANGE UNIT,1A MANSFIELD RD,OXFORD OX1 3TB,ENGLAND. AB The influence of climate change on history is discussed in such a way as to take account of recent research while seeking to herald, rather than foreclose, the much more focussed and definitive debates that will become possible by the turn of the century. By then, much more elaborated time series of global climatic change over the last several millennia should be available. The period chosen for examination is the 1000 years or so following the collapse of Roman Europe. During this time, civilisation seems to wane, wax and wane again, very much in phase with the climate deteriorating, improving and then deteriorating once more. What this overview highlights is the great vulnerability to climatic perturbation of societies that are marginally poised for other reasons. In several major respects, the whole of world society will be marginal in the 21st century. CR ARNOLD T, HALF HOURS STANDARD, P133 ASHE G, 1971, QUEST AM, P271 BARRY GR, 1990, ATMOSPHERE WEATHER C BELL D, 1958, WORLD POLIT, V10, P327 BROOKS CEP, 1926, CLIMATE THROUGH AGES, P340 BUDYKO MI, 1991, ANTHRO CLIMATIC CHAN, CH10 BURKE P, 1990, FRENCH HIST REVOLUTI, P61 CHERNAVSKAYA MM, 1990, CLIMATIC CHANGE HIST, P130 FANG JQ, 1992, INT J CLIMATOL, V12, P499 FICHTENAU H, 1991, LIVING 10TH CENTURY, P338 FOOTE PC, 1980, VIKING ACHEIVEMENT, P260 FROMM E, 1942, ESCAPE FREEDOM, P40 GIBBON E, 1970, DECLINE FALL ROMAN E, V1 GILES HA, 1964, CHINESE BIOGRAPHICAL, P112 GOTTFRIED RS, 1983, BLACK DEATH, P15 GOUDIE A, 1990, HUMAN IMPACT NATURAL, P37 GRACE J, 1989, FORESTS WEATHER CLIM, P233 GREEN VHH, 1955, LATER PLANTAGENETS GROVE JM, 1988, LITTLE ICE AGE, P22 GROVE JM, 1988, LITTLE ICE AGE, P3 GUILLAUME A, 1954, ISLAM HUNTINGTON E, 1907, PULSE ASIA, P287 HUNTINGTON E, 1907, PULSE ASIA, CH17 ISAAR AS, 1992, IMPACT CLIMATE VARIA ISSAR AD, 1992, IMPACT CLIMATE VARIA ISSAR AS, 1992, IMPACT CLIMATE VARIA KIRKBY MH, 1977, VIKINGS, P56 KOLB A, 1971, E ASIA, P47 LADURIE EL, 1971, TIME FEAST TIMES FAM, P88 LAMB HH, 1966, CHANGING CLIMATE, P64 LAMB HH, 1977, CLIMATE PRESENT PAST, V2, CH12 LAMB HH, 1982, CLIMATE HIST MODERN LAMB HH, 1982, CLIMATE HIST MODERN, P118 LAMB HH, 1982, CLIMATE HIST MODERN, P160 LAMB HH, 1987, BEITR PHYS ATMOS, V60, P131 LATOUCHE R, 1981, BIRTH W EC, P189 LUND O, 1985, MEDIEVAL ARCHAEOLOGY, V29, P120 MANGO C, 1980, BYZANTIUM EMPIRE NEW, CH3 MATTHEW D, 1985, ATLAS MEDIEVAL EUROP, P165 MCGOVERN TH, 1981, CLIMATE HIST, P379 MCNEIL W, 1983, PURSUIT POWER, P48 MILNERGAILLARD R, 1989, CULTURAL ATLAS RUSSI, P24 PIRENNE H, 1976, PIRENNE THESIS, P1 PONTING C, 1992, GREEN HIST WORLD, CH7 ROPER HRT, 1969, EUROPEAN WITCH CRAZE SHAW BD, 1981, CLIMATE HIST STUDIES, P379 STAGG FN, 1952, N NORWAY HIST, P61 STAGG FN, 1952, N NORWAY HIST, P75 SZAMUELY T, 1974, RUSSIAN TRADITION, CH2 TUCHMAN B, 1978, DISTANT MIRROR, CH2 WEIL S, 1971, NEED ROOTS, P45 WHITE L, 1976, PIRENNE THESIS, P166 WILKINSON RG, 1973, POVERTY PROGR ECOLOG NR 53 TC 2 J9 ENVIRON POLLUT BP 37 EP 43 PY 1994 VL 83 IS 1-2 GA ML496 UT ISI:A1994ML49600004 ER PT J AU Burton, I TI Vulnerability and adaptive response in the context of climate and climate change SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 ENVIRONM CANADA,ATMOSPHER ENVIRONM SERV,DOWNSVIEW,ON,CANADA. RP Burton, I, UNIV TORONTO,INST ENVIRONM STUDIES,ENVIRONM ADAPTAT RES GRP,TORONTO,ON,CANADA. AB The paper explores the distinction between climate and climate change. Adaptation to current climate variability has been proposed as an additional way to approach adaptation to long-term climate change. In effect improved adaptation to current climate is a step in preparation for longer term climate change. International programs of research and assessment are separately organized to deal with natural disasters and climate change. There is no scientific concensus so far, that extreme events have changed in frequency on a world-wide basis, although some regional changes have occured. It is extremely unlikely that significant shifts in the means of weather distrbutions will take place without shifts in the tails. In some situations it may make more sense to focus on adaptation to extreme events and the tails of distributions. In other circumstances adaptation to the norms is the logical focus. The relationship between normal climate and climate change is examined in terms of single and complex variables and phenomena. It is proposed that the research communities studying adaptation to extreme events and adaptation to climate change work more closely together, perhaps in a newly organized joint research program. CR *US NAT AC SCI ENG, 1992, POL IMPL GREENH WARM, P520 ANDERSON M, 1991, MANAGING NATURAL DIS, P17 BURTON I, 1964, NAT RESOUR J, V3, P412 BURTON I, 1978, ENV HAZARD, V1, P1 BURTON I, 1996, ADAPTING CLIMATE CHA, P55 HERBERT D, 1995, UNPUB ESTIMATED COST KREIMER A, 1991, MANAGING NATURAL DIS, P10 MCCULLOCH J, 1995, P WORKSH IMPR RESP A, P3 SMIT B, 1993, ADAPTATION CLIMATE V, P7 WIGLEY TML, 1985, NATURE, V316, P106 YAZICI DZ, 1995, IMPACT CLIMATE COST NR 11 TC 10 J9 CLIMATIC CHANGE BP 185 EP 196 PY 1997 PD MAY-JUN VL 36 IS 1-2 GA XH635 UT ISI:A1997XH63500013 ER PT J AU Wassmann, R Hien, NX Hoanh, CT Tuong, TP TI Sea level rise affecting the Vietnamese Mekong Delta: Water elevation in the flood season and implications for rice production SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe, Inst Meteorol & Climate Res IMK IFU, D-82467 Garmisch Partenkirchen, Germany. SIWRP, Thanh Pho Ho Chi Minh, Vietnam. IWMI, Colombo, Sri Lanka. Int Rice Res Inst, Los Banos, Philippines. RP Wassmann, R, Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe, Inst Meteorol & Climate Res IMK IFU, Kreuzeckbahnstr 19, D-82467 Garmisch Partenkirchen, Germany. AB In this study, we assessed the impact of sea level rise, one of the most ascertained consequences of global climate change, for water levels in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta (VMD). We used a hydraulic model to compute water levels from August to November-when flooding is presently critical-under sea level rise scenarios of 20 cm (= Delta20) and 45 cm (= Delta45), respectively. The outputs show that the contour lines of water levels will be shifted up to 25 km (Delta20) and 50 km (Delta45) towards the sea due to higher sea levels. At the onset of the flood season ( August), the average increment in water levels in the Delta is 14.1 cm (Delta20) and 32.2 cm (Delta45), respectively. At the peak of the flood season ( October), high discharge from upstream attenuates the increment in water level, but average water level rise of 11.9 cm (Delta20) and 27.4 cm (Delta45), respectively, still imply a substantial aggravation of flooding problems in the VMD. GIS techniques were used to delineate areas with different levels of vulnerability, i.e., area with high (2.3 mio ha = 60% of the VMD), medium (0.6 mio ha = 15%) and low (1 mio ha = 25%) vulnerability due to sea level rise. Rice production will be affected through excessive flooding in the tidally inundated areas and longer flooding periods in the central part of the VMD. These adverse impacts could affect all three cropping seasons, Mua (main rainfed crop), Dong Xuan (Winter-Spring) and He Thu (Summer-Autumn) in the VMD unless preventive measures are taken. CR *ADB, 1994, CLIM CHANG AS VIETN, P103 *DELFT HYDR, 1989, SAFLOW MAN PROGR CAL *ESSA STOTH PEG WA, 1992, WAT CONTR PROJ QUAN *IPCC, 2000, EM SCEN 2000 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 *KOICA KARICO, 2000, FLOOD CONTR PLANN DE, V1 *NEDECO, 1991, 1 NEDECO WORLD BANK, V2 *NEDECO, 1991, 2 NEDECO WORLD BANK *NEDECO, 1992, THEM STUD MAN WAT RE, V4 *NEDECO, 1993, THEM STUD MAN WAT RE, V2 *SOGREAH, 1963, MOD MATH DELT MEK ALI A, 1996, WATER AIR SOIL POLL, V92, P171 DONG TD, 2000, P WORKSH HYDR ENV MO, P236 DUONG LT, 1994, J FAC AGR KYUSHU U, V39, P1 HASHIMOTO TR, 2001, 4 U SYDN AUSTR MEK R HOUGHTON JT, 1990, SCI ASSESSMENT CLIMA KHUE NN, 1986, MODELLING TIDAL PROP KHUE NN, 1991, VIETNAM RIVER SYSTEM MINH HNT, 2002, J FAC AGR KYUSHU U, V47, P221 MOYA TB, 1998, GLOB CHANGE BIOL, V4, P645 NICHOLLS RJ, 1999, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V9, PS69 PEREZ RT, 1996, WATER AIR SOIL POLL, V92, P137 SANH NV, 1998, DEV FARMING SYSTEMS, P17 SMITH JB, 2001, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V50, P1 TOL RSJ, 1998, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V8, P109 TUONG NT, 2001, SEA LEVEL MEASUREMEN VANDIEPEN CA, 1989, SOIL USE MANAGE, V5, P16 WARRICK RA, 1996, IMPLICATIONS CLIMATE WASSMANN R, 2000, NUTR CYCL AGROECOSYS, V58, P13 XUAN VT, 1998, DEV FARMING SYSTEMS ZEIDLER RB, 1997, OCEAN COAST MANAGE, V37, P41 NR 31 TC 0 J9 CLIMATIC CHANGE BP 89 EP 107 PY 2004 PD SEP VL 66 IS 1-2 GA 857PN UT ISI:000224130900008 ER PT J AU Patz, JA Balbus, JM TI Methods for assessing public health vulnerability to global climate change SO CLIMATE RESEARCH LA English DT Article C1 GEORGE WASHINGTON UNIV,SCH MED,DEPT OCCUPAT & ENVIRONM MED,WASHINGTON,DC. RP Patz, JA, JOHNS HOPKINS UNIV,SCH HYG & PUBL HLTH,DEPT MOLEC MICROBIOL & IMMUNOL,615 N WOLFE ST,BALTIMORE,MD 21205. AB Assessment of the human health risk posed by global climate change presents a new challenge to public health professionals. In contrast to conventional toxicological risk assessment, the health risk assessment related to global climate change must analyze stressors that consist of complex interrelated climate factors and risks that are mediated through intermediate species in varying ecosystems. A framework for ecologically based human health risk assessment helps distinguish the concepts of global climate change risk assessment from conventional risk assessment. Specific methods for linking climate variables with human disease include historical analysis of climate and disease data and the development of integrated mathematical models. Two historical climate-disease studies of malaria in Africa provide a starting point for further analysis. Early approaches to evaluating the human health risks from global climate change will include simple mapping of disease boundaries and climate factors. Computer-based geographical information system (GIS) technology will assist in the organization and analysis of climate, environment and disease data. Ultimately, complex integrated mathematical models may provide quantitative estimates of risk, but these models have not yet been validated. The collection of geographically organized relevant data through either field work or remote sensing technology will both help validate comprehensive integrated models and enhance our understanding of the associations between climate change and human health. 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RP Kirkby, J, Northumbria Univ, Div Geog & Environm Management, Lipman Bldg, Newcastle Upon Tyne NE1 8ST, Tyne & Wear, England. AB This paper introduces a series of African and Asian case studies on environment and development. It explores the tension between optimistic and pessimistic interpretations of environmental maintenance and transformation. It critically examines political ecology and eco-populism before analysing underlying models of governance, social justice and human rights. Key concepts in understanding the relationship between environment and development are discussed, including security, sustainable livelihoods, coping and entitlements. The paper ends with a discussion of marginality and vulnerability with particular attention to urban and informal sector environments. Copyright (C) 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 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RP Kepner, WG, US EPA, Off Res & Dev, POB 93478, Las Vegas, NV 89193 USA. AB Vegetation change in the American West has been a subject of concern throughout the twentieth century. Although many of the changes have been recorded qualitatively through the use of comparative photography and historical reports, little quantitative information has been available on the regional or watershed scale. It is currently possible to measure change over large areas and determine trends in ecological and hydrological condition using advanced space-based technologies. Specifically, this process is being tested in a community-based watershed in southeast Arizona and northeast Sonora, Mexico using a system of landscape pattern measurements derived from satellite remote sensing, spatial statistics, process modeling, and geographic information systems technology. These technologies provide the basis for developing landscape composition and pattern indicators as sensitive measures of large-scale environmental change and thus may provide an effective and economical method for evaluating watershed condition related to disturbance from human and natural stresses. The project utilizes the database from the North American Landscape Characterization (NALC) project which incorporates triplicate Landsat Multi-Spectral Scanner (MSS) imagery from the early 1970s, mid 1980s, and the 1990s. Landscape composition and pattern metrics have been generated from digital land cover maps derived from the NALC images and compared across a nearly 20-year period. Results about changes in land cover for the study period indicate that extensive, highly connected grassland and desertscrub areas are the most vulnerable ecosystems to fragmentation and actual loss due to encroachment of xerophytic mesquite woodland. In the study period, grasslands and desertscrub not only decreased in extent but also became more fragmented. That is, the number of grassland and desertscrub patches increased and their average patch sizes decreased. In stark contrast, the mesquite woodland patches increased in size, number, and connectivity. These changes have important impact for the hydrology of the region, since the energy and water balance characteristics for these cover types are significantly different. The process demonstrates a simple procedure to document changes and determine ecosystem vulnerabilities through the use of change detection and indicator development, especially in regard to traditional degradation processes that have occurred throughout the western rangelands involving changes of vegetative cover and acceleration of water and wind erosion. CR *COMM ENV COOP, 1998, ADV PAN REP UPP SAN *COMM ENV COOP, 1999, SUST ENH RIP MIGR BI *SPSS INC, 1998, SYSTAT VERS 8 0 *US BUR LAND MAN, 1998, BLMAZPT98021 US BUR *USEPA, 1993, EPA600S930005 BAHRE CJ, 1991, LEGACY CHANGE HIST H BAHRE CJ, 1993, J BIOGEOGR, V20, P489 BRANDT R, 1951, ARIZONA ITS BIRD LIF BRANSON FA, 1985, RANGE MONOGRAPH SOC, V2 BUFFINGTON LC, 1965, ECOL MONOGR, V35, P139 CONGALTON RG, 1983, PHOTOGRAMM ENG REM S, V49, P69 CONGALTON RG, 1991, REMOTE SENS ENVIRON, V37, P35 CONGALTON RG, 1993, PHOTOGRAMM ENG REM S, V59, P641 CONGALTON RG, 1998, ASSESSING ACCURACY R DIMYATI M, 1996, INT J REMOTE SENS, V17, P931 FORMAN RTT, 1986, LANDSCAPE ECOLOGY GRAHAM RL, 1991, ECOL APPL, V1, P196 GROVER HD, 1990, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V17, P305 HASTINGS JR, 1965, CHANGING MILE ECOLOG HOUGHTON RA, 1983, ECOL MONOGR, V53, P235 HUMPHREY RR, 1958, BOT REV, V24, P193 JENSEN JR, 1993, PHOTOGRAMM ENG REM S, V59, P519 JENSEN ME, 1994, EASTSIDE FOREST ECOS, P7 KLEMAS VV, 1993, J COASTAL RES, V9, P862 MA ZK, 1995, PHOTOGRAMM ENG REM S, V61, P435 MARSH SE, 1994, REMOTE SENS ENVIRON, V48, P61 MCDONNELL MJ, 1993, HUMANS COMPONENTS EC MIGUELAYANZ JS, 1997, REMOTE SENS ENVIRON, V59, P92 MOUAT DA, 1993, GEOCARTO INT, V2, P39 MOUAT DA, 1996, GEOCARTO INT, V11, P55 NEILSON RP, 1986, SCIENCE, V232, P27 ONEILL RV, 1997, BIOSCIENCE, V47, P513 PILLON PG, 1988, PHOTOGRAMMETRIC ENG, V54, P1709 RAMSEY EW, 1997, J COASTAL RES, V13, P281 SCHLESINGER WH, 1990, SCIENCE, V247, P1043 STORY M, 1986, PHOTOGRAMM ENG REM S, V52, P397 TELLMAN B, 1997, 19 U AR WAT RES CTR TURNER BL, 1990, EARTH RANSFORMED HUM URBAN DL, 1987, BIOSCIENCE, V37, P119 WHITTLESEY SM, 1997, VANISHING RIVER LAND NR 40 TC 5 J9 ENVIRON MONIT ASSESS BP 179 EP 195 PY 2000 PD SEP VL 64 IS 1 GA 352XL UT ISI:000089244600017 ER PT J AU Wijeratne, MA TI Vulnerability of Sri Lanka tea production to global climate change SO WATER AIR AND SOIL POLLUTION LA English DT Article RP Wijeratne, MA, TEA RES INST,RES ADVISORY & EXTENS CTR,RATNAPURA,SRI LANKA. AB The tea industry is Sri Lanka's main net foreign exchange earner and source of income for the majority of laborers. Tea yield is greatly influenced by weather, and especially by droughts, which cause irreparable losses because irrigation is seldom used on tea plantations. At the other extreme, heavy rains erode top soil and wash away fertilizers and other chemicals. In the recently published Sri Lanka country report on climate change, it was reported that the island will experience extreme rainfall intensities and warmer temperatures as a result of climate change. The possibility of a 10% increase in the length of dry and wet seasons per year in the main plantation area was also indicated. Thus both drought damages and soil losses in tea production areas will increase in the years to come. An analysis of the results of field experiments with weather data shows that increases in temperature, soil moisture deficit, and saturation vapor pressure deficit in the low elevations will adversely affect growth and yield of tea Reports have also shown that about 30 cm of soil has already been eroded from upland tea plantations. Under these circumstances, the tea industry in Sri Lanka is clearly vulnerable to predicted climate changes, and subsequently greater economic, social, and environmental problems. This paper discusses the various aspects of the adverse effects of climate change on Sri Lanka's tea industry. CR *ADB, 1994, CLIM CHANG AS SRI LA *CENTR BANK, 1983, ANN REP CENTR BANK S *CENTR BANK, 1992, ANN REP CENTR BANK S *IPCC, 1994, IPCC TECHN GUID ASS CARR MKV, 1972, EXPT AGR, V8, P1 CARR MKV, 1992, TEA CULTIVATION CONS, P87 DEVANATHAN MAV, 1975, TEA Q, V45, P43 FUCH HJ, 1989, TEA ENV YIELD SRI LA HOUGHTON JT, IN PRESS CLIMATE CHA KANDIAH S, 1980, TEA Q, V49, P2533 KRISHNARAJAH P, 1985, SRI LANKA J TEA SCI, V54, P91 NAVARATNE DK, 1992, TEA B, V12, P34 SQUIRE GR, 1990, PHYSL TROPICAL CROP STOCKING M, 1992, 14 MAH AUTH SRI LANK WATSON M, 1986, HDB TEA, P3 WIJERATNE MA, 1990, TEA B, V10, P15 WIJERATNE MA, 1994, THESIS U LONDON WIJERATNE MA, 1996, ADAPTING CLIMATE CHA YATAWATTE ST, 1992, TEA B, V12, P87 NR 19 TC 3 J9 WATER AIR SOIL POLLUT BP 87 EP 94 PY 1996 PD SEP VL 92 IS 1-2 GA VM538 UT ISI:A1996VM53800010 ER PT J AU Williams, NSG McDonnell, MJ Seager, EJ TI Factors influencing the loss of an endangered ecosystem in an urbanising landscape: a case study of native grasslands from Melbourne, Australia SO LANDSCAPE AND URBAN PLANNING LA English DT Article C1 Royal Bot Gardens Melbourne, Australian Res Ctr Urban Ecol, Melbourne, Vic, Australia. Univ Melbourne, Sch Bot, Melbourne, Vic, Australia. RP Williams, NSG, Royal Bot Gardens Melbourne, Australian Res Ctr Urban Ecol, Melbourne, Vic, Australia. AB Over the Past two decades, the decline and destruction of native grasslands in Australian cities has intensified. In Melbourne, large remnants of this endangered vegetation type have been subdivided and destroyed by urban development while linear reserves are being degraded by changes to management practices. To analyse fragmentation patterns we developed a temporal dataset spanning the period 1985-2000 that recorded the extent and distribution of native grassland patches in western Melbourne. Of the 7230 ha of native grassland present in 1985, 1670 ha (23%) were destroyed by development and 1469 ha (21%) were degraded to non-native grassland by 2000. There were fewer patches and greater distance between patches in 2000 than in 1985, indicating that fragmentation has intensified. Logistic regression models were used to determine the probabilities that a patch would be destroyed, degraded or remain as native grassland. Patches that were privately or government owned, close to major roads and close to Melbourne were more likely to be destroyed while patches close to streams or on railway land had a lower probability of destruction. Patches with high perimeter to area ratios had a higher probability of being degraded. Biological significance ranking was also an important explanatory variable determining patch fate but areas of higher significance were not necessarily preserved. The preservation and ecological management of grasslands in Australia is a high conservation priority and utilising landscape and societal based predictors of threat can help set priorities for the protection and management of sites. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 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CR *CAN ENV, 1983, HIST STREAMFL SUMM O *GREAT LAK BAS COM, 1975, GREAT LAK BAS FRAM S *INT JOINT COMM, 1981, GREAT LAK DIV CONS U *INT JOINT COMM, 1985, GREAT LAK DIV CONS U AUSUBEL JH, 1983, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V5, P7 BEDELL DJ, 1979, IRRIGATION MICHIGAN BROWN DM, 1984, CLIMATOLOGICAL B, V18, P15 BRUCE JP, 1984, J GREAT LAKES RES, V10, P126 CHEN RS, 1983, SOCIAL SCI RES CLIMA, P230 CLARK WC, 1985, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V7, P5 COHEN SJ, 1985, CAN GEOGR, V29, P113 COHEN SJ, 1986, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V8, P135 COHEN SJ, 1986, IN PRESS WATER RESOU DIAZ HF, 1985, J CLIM APPL METEOROL, V24, P145 EASTERLING WE, 1985, 4TH C APPL CLIM AM M FOSTER HD, 1981, WATER EMERGING CRISI KATES RW, 1985, CLIMATE IMPACT ASSES MUNN RE, 1985, CARBON DIOXIDE ISSUE, P19 PARRY ML, 1984, ASSESSING IMPACT CLI QUINN FH, 1981, WATER RESOUR RES, V17, P1619 QUINN FH, 1985, COMMUNICATION 0920 SOLLEY WB, 1983, 1001 US DEP INT GEOL SOLLEY WB, 1985, COMMUNICATION 1015 VANTIL RL, 1985, COMMUNICATION 0702 NR 24 TC 7 J9 PROF GEOGR BP 317 EP 323 PY 1986 PD NOV VL 38 IS 4 GA G4354 UT ISI:A1986G435400001 ER PT J AU Potschin, M Haines-Young, R TI "Rio+10", sustainability science and Landscape Ecology SO LANDSCAPE AND URBAN PLANNING LA English DT Article C1 Univ Nottingham, Sch Geog, Nottingham NG7 2RD, England. RP Potschin, M, Univ Nottingham, Sch Geog, Nottingham NG7 2RD, England. AB The 'sustainability debate' has had a profound influence on contemporary Landscape Ecology. This paper explores the implications of the second global summit for the research agendas that developed after the Rio Summit (1992), and argues that although the Declaration from Johannesburg 2002 restates the earlier summit concerns, the messages it sends to the research community are subtly different to those a decade earlier. The growing body of literature, which identifies the need for a new kind of sustainability science, is reviewed, and its relevance to Landscape Ecology is discussed. Although recent commentators have argued for a more transdisciplinary approach to Landscape Ecology that appears to meet the requirements of this new science we still lack ways of taking this forward. The paper concludes by proposing a new paradigm for Landscape Ecology based on the concept of ecosystem goods and services, or natural capital. It is argued that in the decade since the Rio Summit, a key focus of the future research agenda for the discipline should be an exploration of the 'sustainability choice space' defined by the interaction of biophysical limits and social and economic values at the landscape- scale. The paper provides a conceptual model (the tongue model) that describes how biophysical and socio-economic constraints can be combined in sustainability planning. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 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Arizona State Univ, Sch Comp & Informat, Tempe, AZ 85287 USA. Indiana Univ, Workshop Polit Theory & Policy Anal, Bloomington, IN 47408 USA. Indiana Univ, Ctr Study Inst Populat & Environm Change, Bloomington, IN 47408 USA. RP Janssen, MA, Arizona State Univ, Sch Human Evolut & Social Change, Box 872402, Tempe, AZ 85287 USA. CR ADGER WN, 2005, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V15, P75 ADGER WN, 2006, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V16, P268 BERKES F, 1998, LINKING SOCIAL ECOLO, V1, P1 FOLKE C, 2006, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V16, P253 GALLOPIN GC, 1989, INT SOC SCI J, V41, P375 GALLOPIN GC, 2006, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V16, P293 HOLLING CS, 1973, ANNUAL REV ECOLOGY S, V4, P1 JANSSEN MA, 2006, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V16, P240 SMIT B, 2006, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V16, P282 TURNER BL, 2003, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V100, P8080 YOUNG OR, 2006, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V16, P304 NR 11 TC 0 J9 GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANGE BP 237 EP 239 PY 2006 PD AUG VL 16 IS 3 GA 073OJ UT ISI:000239752200002 ER PT J AU Clark, WC TI Sustainability science: A room of its own SO PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA LA English DT Editorial Material CR *INT COUNC SCI, 2002, SCI TECHN SUST DEV *NAT RES COUNC POL, 1999, COMM JOURN TRANS SUS *WORLDS SCI AC, 2000, TRANS SUST 21 CENT C KATES RW, 2001, SCIENCE, V292, P641 SCHELLNHUBER HJ, 2004, EARTH SYSTEM ANAL SU STOKES DE, 1997, PASTEURS QUADRANT BA NR 6 TC 0 J9 PROC NAT ACAD SCI USA BP 1737 EP 1738 PY 2007 PD FEB 6 VL 104 IS 6 GA 135BD UT ISI:000244127900001 ER PT J AU Reddy, VR Reddy, MG Galab, S Soussan, J Springate-Baginski, O TI Participatory watershed development in India: Can it sustain rural livelihoods? SO DEVELOPMENT AND CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 Ctr Econ & Social Studies, Hyderabad, Andhra Pradesh, India. York Univ, N York, ON M3J 1P3, Canada. Stockholm Environm Inst, Water Grp, Stockholm, Sweden. RP Reddy, VR, Ctr Econ & Social Studies, Hyderabad, Andhra Pradesh, India. AB The purpose of this article is to assess the impact of policy interventions through watershed development (WD) on the livelihoods of the rural communities. This is done by assessing the programme in the context of a sustainable rural livelihoods framework, that is, looking at its impact on the five types of capital assets and strategies required for the means of living. The article also examines the vulnerability and stability of these capital assets, as well as analysing which people participate in the programme and enhance their livelihoods through sharing its benefits. In the light of the analysis, it is argued that watershed development holds the potential for enhanced livelihood security even in geo-climatic conditions where the watershed cannot bring direct irrigation benefits oil a large scale. In such fragile environments, however, watershed development is a necessary but not a sufficient condition for sustaining rural livelihoods. While the focus of watershed development is primarily on strengthening the ecological base such as water bodies (including traditional tanks), grazing lands and wastelands, it should be complemented with other programmes which focus on landless poor households in order to make it pro-poor. In the context of low rainfall regions where improvement in irrigation facilities is slow, agriculture alone cannot support the communities. Policies and programmes should aim at creating an environment for diverse livelihood activities, which are the choice of the household rather than distress activities. CR *GOI, 1991, REP NAT COMM RUR L 2, V2 *GOI, 1994, GUID WAT DEV *UNDP, 2003, HUM DEV REP 2003 AGRAWAL A, 1994, RULES GAMES COMMON P, P267 BAUMANN P, 2000, 136 OV DEV I CAMPBELL B, 2000, EVALUATING IMPACTS I CARNEY D, 1998, SUSTAINABLE RURAL LI CHAMBERS R, 1992, 276 IDS U SUSS DAVIES S, 1996, ADAPTABLE LIVELIHOOD DESHPANDE RS, 1990, INDIAN J AGR ECON, V45, P355 DESHPANDE RS, 1991, IND J AGR EC, V46, P261 ELLIS F, 2000, LIVELIHOODS DIVERSIT HANNA SS, 1996, ENVIRON DEV ECON, V1, P122 PUTNAM RD, 1993, MAKING DEMOCRACY WOR RAO CH, 2000, LOV KUM MEM LECT DEL RAVALLION M, 2001, WORLD BANK ECON REV, V15, P115 REDDY V, 1998, INT C EUR SOC EC EC REDDY V, 2000, ECON POLIT WEEKLY, V35, P3435 REDDY V, 2001, REVIVING TRADITIONAL REDDY V, 2001, WATERSHED DEV LIVELI RENNIE JK, 1996, PARTICIPATORY RES SU SCOONES I, 1998, 72 IDS U SUSS SEN AK, 1981, POVERTY FAMINES ESSA, V1, P1 SEN AK, 1985, COMMODITIES CAPABILI SOUSSAN J, 2000, 7 SCH GEOGR SOUSSAN J, 2003, POVERTY WATER SECURI TURTON C, 2000, 131 OV DEV I NR 27 TC 0 J9 DEVELOP CHANGE BP 297 EP 326 PY 2004 PD APR VL 35 IS 2 GA 820AF UT ISI:000221358000004 ER PT J AU Moore, S Daniel, M Linnan, L Campbell, M Benedict, S Meier, A TI After hurricane floyd passed - Investigating the social determinants of disaster preparedness and recovery SO FAMILY & COMMUNITY HEALTH LA English DT Article C1 Univ N Carolina, Sch Publ Hlth, Dept Hlth Behav, Chapel Hill, NC USA. Univ N Carolina, Sch Publ Hlth, Dept Hlth Educ, Chapel Hill, NC USA. Univ N Carolina, Sch Publ Hlth, Dept Epidemiol, Chapel Hill, NC USA. Univ N Carolina, Ctr Hlth Promot & Dis Prevent, Chapel Hill, NC USA. Univ N Carolina, Sch Social Work, Chapel Hill, NC USA. Univ N Carolina, Sch Publ Hlth, Dept Nutr, Chapel Hill, NC USA. RP Moore, S, Ctr Hlth & Policy Studies, Dept Community Hlth Sci, 3330 Hosp Dr NW, Calgary, AB T2N 4N1, Canada. AB In September 1999, Hurricane Floyd struck eastern North Carolina. Investigators from the health promotion study "Health Works for Women/Health Works in the Community" responded by initiating a focused research study, "Health Works After the Flood." Participatory research involving a multilevel design and qualitative methods was applied to investigate how community preparedness, response, and recovery are affected by social factors such as social capital, social cohesion, and collective efficacy. This article presents evidence from qualitative research conducted for "Health Works After the Flood" and links these findings to observations regarding current conceptualizations of social capital and related concepts. CR 2000, UNPUB HURRICANE FLOY *US GOV, 2000 US CENS DAT ALEXANDER D, 1993, NATURAL DISASTERS ALEXANDER D, 1997, DISASTERS, V21, P284 BARNES J, 2001, N CAROLINAS HURRICAN BEAUVAIS C, 2002, F22 CAN POL RES NETW BENEDICT S, 1999, WELLNESS MANAGEMENT, V15, P6 BLAIKIE PM, 1994, RISK NATURAL HAZARDS, V1, P1 BOURDIEU P, 1992, INVITATION REFLEXIVE BURRITT C, 1999, ATLANTA J CONST 0921, A1 CAMPBELL MK, 2002, PREV MED, V34, P313 CLINEBELL M, 1999, SAMPSON INDEPEN 0922, P1 ECKENRODE J, 1990, PERSONAL RELATIONSHI FREDERICK C, 1993, PREHOSPITAL DISASTER, V8, P89 GERRITY E, 1997, PUBLIC HLTH CONSEQUE GIEL R, 1990, INT J MENT HEALTH, V19, P7 GODSCHALK DR, 1999, NATURAL HAZARD MITIG HARDIN J, 1999, FREE PRESS 0921, P1 HAWE P, 2000, SOC SCI MED, V51, P871 JENSON J, 1998, F03 CAN POL RES NETW KANIASTY K, 1995, AM J COMMUN PSYCHOL, V23, P447 KANIASTY K, 1999, RESPONSE DISASTER KAWACHI I, 1997, AM J PUBLIC HEALTH, V87, P1491 KAWACHI I, 2000, SOCIAL EPIDEMIOLOGY KELSEY KS, 2000, AM J HEALTH BEHAV, V24, P434 LOCHNER K, 1999, HEALTH PLACE, V5, P259 MOONEYHAM S, 2002, ASS PRESS STATE 0116 MOORE S, 103 U CALG CTR HLTH MORROW BH, 1999, DISASTERS, V23, P1 MUHR T, 1997, ATLAS TI NAVARRO V, 2002, INT J HEALTH SERV, V32, P423 PEACOCK W, 1997, HURRICANE ANDREW ETH PERRY R, 1986, MINORITY CITIZENS DI PRESS A, 1999, SAMPSON INDEPEN 0918, P9 PUTNAM RD, 1996, AM PROSPECT, V24, P34 SAMPSON RJ, 1997, SCIENCE, V277, P918 SAMPSON RJ, 2002, ANNU REV SOCIOL, V28, P443 STITH P, 2002, NEWS OBSERVER 0117, P10 STITH P, 2002, NEWS OBSERVER 0121, P1 STITH P, 2002, NEWS OBSERVER 0121, P1 STITH P, 2002, NEWS OBSERVER 0121, P8 SUBRAMANIAN SV, 2002, HEALTH PLACE, V9, P33 TESSARO I, 1998, AM J HEALTH BEHAV, V22, P434 TURNER V, 1985, EDGE BUSH WELSH K, 1999, FREE PRESS 0921, P1 WELSH K, 1999, FREE PRESS 0921, P3 NR 46 TC 0 J9 FAMILY COMMUNITY HEALTH BP 204 EP 217 PY 2004 PD JUL-SEP VL 27 IS 3 GA 830QV UT ISI:000222138700006 ER PT J AU Gladstone, W Tawfiq, N Nasr, D Andersen, I Cheung, C Drammeh, H Krupp, F Lintner, S TI Sustainable use of renewable resources and conservation in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden: issues, needs and strategic actions SO OCEAN & COASTAL MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article C1 Univ Newcastle, Sch Sci & Technol, Sustain Resource Management & Coastal Ecol Unit, Ourimbah, NSW 2258, Australia. UN, Dev Programme, Reg Bur Arab States, New York, NY 10017 USA. UN, Environm Programme, Water Branch, Nairobi, Kenya. Foschungsinst Senckenberg, Ichthyol Dept, D-60325 Frankfurt, Germany. World Bank, Dept Environm, Washington, DC 20433 USA. Reg Org Conservat Environm Red Sea & Gulf Eden, PERSGA, Jeddah 21431, Saudi Arabia. RP Gladstone, W, Univ Newcastle, Sch Sci & Technol, Sustain Resource Management & Coastal Ecol Unit, Cent Coast Campus,POB 127, Ourimbah, NSW 2258, Australia. AB The coastal and marine environments and resources of the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden are globally significant and generally in a healthy state. Current regional issues include localized destruction of coral reefs, seagrass and mangroves; declines in some fisheries; exploitation of some endangered species; pollution from the development and transport of petroleum; and disposal of industrial and municipal wastes. The underlying causes of these issues are the natural vulnerability of the Red Sea due to its semi-enclosed nature; economic reliance on the petroleum industry; significant navigation risks; a rapidly increasing coastal population and associated developments; lack of fisheries information, surveillance and management; poor coastal zone planning; and limited technical expertise. Strategic actions addressing these issues will need to be implemented regionally and focus on coastal zone management that integrates environmental planning, environmental assessment and review; training and institutional development; public awareness and participation; information gathering especially fisheries statistics: reducing navigation risks; and the development of resource management and conservation strategies. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. CR 1997, ENV HLTH PERSPECTIVE, V105, P1288 *AR REP EGYPT, 1997, COUNTR REP PREP PERS *DNV, 1997, NAV RISK ASS MAN PLA *EUR UN MIN FISH W, 1995, COAST MAR HAB SURV P *FAO, 1995, STRAT AGR DEV SOM RE *GULD AD COAST SOM, 1997, COUNTR REP PREP PERS *HASH KINGD JORD, 1997, COUNTR REP PREP PERS *IUCN, 1987, YEM AR REP MAR CONS *KINGD SAUD AR, 1997, COUNTR REP PREP PERS *REP DJIB, 1997, COUNTR REP PREP PERS *REP SUD, 1997, COUNTR REP PREP PERS *REP YEM, 1997, PREP PERSGA UNDP SUP *UNDP GEF, 1996, BOD CONS SUST DEV PR *UNEP, 1982, UNEP REG SEAS REP ST *UNEP, 1987, UNEP REG SEAS REP ST, V84 *WORLD RES I, 1994, WORD RES 1994 95 ABUBAKR OA, 1995, THESIS U KHARTOUM KH COGNETTI G, 1997, MAR POLLUT BULL, V34, P752 ELDER D, 1997, ANAL REGIONAL MARINE EVANS MI, 1994, IMPORTANT BIRD AREAS GASPERETTI J, 1993, FAUNA SAUDI ARABIA, V13, P170 HAWKINS JP, 1992, BIOL CONSERV, V62, P171 HAWKINS JP, 1994, AMBIO, V23, P503 JANSSON BO, 1997, AMBIO, V26, P424 KINDLER J, 1993, ENVIRONMENT, V35, P7 KRUPP F, 1998, REGIONAL STUDY STATU LINTNER SF, 1996, EXPERIENCE WORLD BAN LINTNER SF, 1997, AMBIO, V26, P418 ORMOND RFG, 1982, REP NEED MAN MAR PAR PREEN A, 1989, MEPA COASTAL MARINE, V1 RAPPORT DJ, 1998, ENVIRON MONIT ASSESS, V51, P171 RUSHDIE AI, 1994, MARINE HABITATS RED SEKULIC B, 1997, WATER RES, V31, P3178 SHEPPARD C, 1992, MARINE ECOLOGY ARABI SHEPPARD CRC, 1988, DIRECTORY CORAL REEF, V2 SHEPPARD CRC, 1991, FAUNA SAUDI ARABIA, V12, P1 NR 36 TC 5 J9 OCEAN COAST MANAGE BP 671 EP 697 PY 1999 VL 42 IS 8 GA 225ZZ UT ISI:000081997000002 ER PT J AU Perarnaud, V Seguin, B Malezieux, E Deque, M Loustau, D TI Agrometeorological research and applications needed to prepare agriculture and forestry to 21st century climate change SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 Meteo France, Direct Prod, F-31057 Toulouse, France. INRA, Unite Agroclim, F-84914 Avignon, France. Meteo France, Ctr Natl Rech Meteorol, F-31057 Toulouse, France. Ctr Cooperat Int Rech Agron Dev, Cirad DS, F-34398 Montpellier, France. INRA, F-33611 Gazinet, France. RP Perarnaud, V, Meteo France, Direct Prod, 42 Ave Coriolis, F-31057 Toulouse, France. AB The adaptation of agriculture and forestry to the climate of the twenty-first century supposes that research projects will be conducted cooperatively between meteorologists, agronomists, soil scientists, hydrologists, and modellers. To prepare for it, it is appropriate first of all to study the variations in the climate of the past using extensive, homogenised series of meteorological or phenological data. General circulation models constitute the basic tool in order to predict future changes in climate. They will be improved, and the regionalisation techniques used for downscaling climate predictions will also be made more efficient. Crop simulation models using input data from the general circulation models applied at the regional level ought to be the favoured tools to allow the extrapolation of the major trends on yield, consumption of water, fertilisers, pesticides, the environment and rural development. For this, they have to be validated according to the available agronomical data, particularly the available phenological series on cultivated crops. In addition, climate change would have impact on crop diseases and parasites, as well as on weeds. Very few studies have been carried out in this field. It is also necessary to quantify in a more accurate way the stocks and fluxes of carbon in large forest ecosystems, simulate their future, and assess the vulnerability of the various forest species to a change in climate. This is all the more important in that some propagate species choices must be made in the course of the next ten years in plantations which will experience changed climate. More broadly speaking, we shall have not only to try hard to research new agricultural and forestry practices which will reduce greenhouse gas emissions or promote the storage of carbon, but it will also be indispensable to prepare the adaptation of numerous rural communities for the climate change (with special reference to least developed countries in tropical areas, where malnutrition is a common threat). This can be accomplished with a series of new environmental management practices suited to the new climatic order. CR *IPCC, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 BOIFFIN J, 2001, CROP SCI PROGR PROSP, P261 BRISSON N, 1998, AGRONOMIE, V18, P311 BRISSON N, 2002, AGRONOMIE, V22, P69 CHAKRABORTY S, 1998, AUSTRALAS PLANT PATH, V27, P15 CHEN WJ, 1999, GLOB CHANGE BIOL, V5, P41 CHRISTENSEN JH, 2001, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V28, P1003 COAKLEY SM, 1996, ASPECTS APPL BIOL, V45, P227 COAKLEY SM, 1999, ANNU REV PHYTOPATHOL, V37, P399 DELECOLLE R, 1995, CLIMATE CHANGE AGR A, P241 DELECOLLE R, 2000, IMPACTS POTENTIELS C, P74 DEQUE M, 1995, CLIM DYNAM, V11, P321 DEQUE M, 2000, MODELISATION IMPACTS DOMERGUE M, 2001, IMPACT RECHAUFFEMENT GANICHOT B, 2002, EVOLUTION DATE VENDA, P38 GIBELIN AL, 2001, SIMULATED ANTHROPOGE GIORGI F, 1992, J GEOPHYS RES-ATMOSP, V97, P10011 GOUDRIAAN J, 1995, ENVIRON POLLUT, V87, P215 HANSEN JW, 2000, CLIMATE PREDICTION A, P77 HOGENBOOM G, 2000, CLIMATE PREDICTION A, P69 HORIE T, 2000, CLIMATE CHANGE GLOBA, P81 HOUGHTON JT, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 LOREAU M, 2001, SCIENCE, V294, P804 MATTHEWS RB, 1997, AGR SYST, V54, P399 MOISSELIN JM, 2001, HOMOGENEISATION SERI MOISSELIN JM, 2002, CHANGEMENTS CLIMATIQ PERARNAUD V, 1997, 3 EUR C APPL MET GRA, P188 REICOSKY DC, 2000, CABI CLIMATE CHANGE, P27 ROBERT M, 2000, EFFETS POTENTIELS CH ROSENZWEIG C, 1998, CLIMATE CHANGE GLOBA RUGET F, 2001, MODELISTAION AGROECO, P263 SAMBA A, 2001, MODELISATION AGROECO, P243 TIMBAL B, 1995, CLIM DYNAM, V12, P1 VALENTINI R, 2000, NATURE, V404, P861 WESTE G, 1987, ANNU REV PHYTOPATHOL, V25, P207 WILBY RL, 2000, CLIMATE PREDICTION A, P39 NR 36 TC 1 J9 CLIMATIC CHANGE BP 319 EP 340 PY 2005 PD MAY VL 70 IS 1-2 GA 942EG UT ISI:000230265100017 ER PT S AU Bouman, BAM Humphreys, E Tuong, TP Barker, R TI Rice and water SO ADVANCES IN AGRONOMY, VOL 92 LA English DT Review C1 Int Rice Res Inst, Los Banos, Philippines. CSIRO Land & Water, PMB 3, Griffith, NSW 2680, Australia. Int Water Management Inst, Colombo, Sri Lanka. RP Bouman, BAM, Int Rice Res Inst, Los Banos, Philippines. AB The Comprehensive Assessment of Water Management in Agriculture (CA) seeks answers to the question of how freshwater resources can be developed and managed to feed the world's population and reduce poverty, while at the same time promoting environmental security. The CA pays particular attention to rice as this crop is the most common staple food of the largest number of people on Earth (about 3 billion people) while receiving an estimated 24-30% of the world's developed freshwater resources. Rice environments also provide unique-but as yet poorly understood-ecosystem services such as the regulation of water and the preservation of aquatic and terrestrial biodiversity. Rice production under flooded conditions is highly sustainable. In comparison with other field crops, flooded rice fields produce more of the greenhouse gas methane but less nitrous oxide, have no to very little nitrate pollution of the groundwater, and use relatively little to no herbicides. Flooded rice can locally raise groundwater tables with subsequent risk of salinization if the groundwater carries salts, but is also an effective restoration crop to leach accumulated salts from the soil in combination with drainage. The production of rice needs to increase in the coming decades to meet the food demand of growing populations. To meet the dual challenges of producing enough food and alleviating poverty, more rice needs to be produced at a low cost per kilogram grain (ensuring reasonable profits for producers) so that prices can be kept low for poor consumers. This increase in rice production needs to be accomplished under increasing scarcity of water, which threatens the sustainability and capability to provide ecosystem services of current production systems. Water scarcity is expected to shift rice production to more water-abundant delta areas, and to lead to crop diversification and more aerobic (nonflooded) soil conditions in rice fields in water-short areas. In these latter areas, investments should target the adoption of water-saving technologies, the reuse of drainage and percolation water, and the improvement of irrigation supply systems. A suite of water-saving technologies can help farmers reduce percolation, drainage, and evaporation losses from their fields by 15-20% without a yield decline. However, greater understanding of the adverse effects of increasingly aerobic field conditions on the sustainability of rice production, environment, and ecosystem services is needed. In drought-, salinity-, and flood-prone environments, the combination of improved varieties with specific management packages has the potential to increase on-farm yields by 50-100% in the coming 10 years, provided that investment in research and extension is intensified. (c) 2007, Elsevier Inc. 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1996, FIELD CROP RES, V46, P21 XU K, 2000, MOL GEN GENET, V263, P681 YANG XG, 2005, AGR WATER MANAGE, V74, P107 YOSHIDA S, 1981, FUNDAMENTALS RICE CR, P269 YUAN L, 2001, RICE RES FOOD SECURI, P143 ZHANG W, 1989, INT COMM IRR DRAIN 7, V1, P480 ZWART SJ, 2004, AGR WATER MANAGE, V69, P115 NR 149 TC 0 J9 ADVAN AGRON BP 187 EP 237 PY 2007 VL 92 GA BFP50 UT ISI:000243626600004 ER PT J AU Haile, M TI Weather patterns, food security and humanitarian response in sub-Saharan Africa SO PHILOSOPHICAL TRANSACTIONS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY B-BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES LA English DT Article C1 World Food Programme, I-00148 Rome, Italy. RP Haile, M, World Food Programme, Via C G Viola 68,Parco Medici, I-00148 Rome, Italy. AB Although considerable achievements in the global reduction of hunger and poverty have been made, progress in Africa so far has been very limited. At present, a third of the African population faces widespread hunger and chronic malnutrition and is exposed to a constant threat of acute food crisis and famine. The most affected are rural households whose livelihood is heavily dependent on traditional rainfed agriculture. Rainfall plays a major role in determining agricultural production and hence the economic and social well being of rural communities. The rainfall pattern in sub-Saharan Africa is influenced by large-scale intra-seasonal and inter-annual climate variability including occasional El Nino events in the tropical Pacific resulting in frequent extreme weather event such as droughts and floods that reduce agricultural outputs resulting in severe food shortages. Households and communities facing acute food shortages are forced to adopt coping strategies to meet the immediate food requirements of their families. These extreme responses may have adverse long-term impacts on households' ability to have sustainable access to food as well as the environment. The HIV/AIDS crisis has also had adverse impacts on food production activities on the continent. In the absence of safety nets and appropriate financial support mechanisms, humanitarian aid is required to enable households effectively cope with emergencies and manage their limited resources more efficiently. Timely and appropriate humanitarian aid will provide households with opportunities to engage in productive and sustainable livelihood strategies. Investments in poverty reduction efforts would have better impact if complemented with timely and predictable response mechanisms that would ensure the protection of livelihoods during crisis periods whether weather or conflict-related. With an improved understanding of climate variability including El Nino, the implications of weather patterns for the food security and vulnerability of rural communities have become more predictable and can be monitored effectively. The purpose of this paper is to investigate how current advances in the understanding of climate variability, weather patterns and food security could contribute to improved humanitarian decision-making. The paper will propose new approaches for triggering humanitarian responses to weather-induced food crises. CR 2005, INVESTING DEV PRACTI *COMM AFR, 2005, OUR COMM INT *FAO, 2003, STAT FOOD INS WORLD *FAO, 2004, STAT FOOD INS WORLD MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 *UNDP, 2004, RED DIS RISK CHALL BARNETT T, 1994, EFFECTS HIV AIDS FAR, P164 BARNETT T, 2003, FAO HIV AIDS FOOD LI CANE MA, 1991, TELECONNECTIONS LINK, P345 CANE MA, 1994, NATURE, V370, P204 DERCON S, 2004, J DEV ECON, V74, P309 DEWAAL A, 2003, LANCET, V362, P1234 DILLEY M, 2002, WMO B, V51, P42 DILLEY M, 2005, DISASTER RISK MANAGE, V5 DUGUERNY J, 2002, AIDS AGR AFRICA FOLLAND CU, 1986, NATURE, V32, P602 GILLESPIE S, 2001, HIV AIDS FOOD NUTR S GILLESPIE SR, 2005, IFPRI FOOD POLICY RE GLANTZ MH, 1994, P WORKSH BUD HUNG 25 GLANTZ MH, 1996, INT J AFR STUD, V1 GODDARD L, 2001, INT J CLIMATOL, V21, P1111 GOES A, 2003, ANN M AM AGR EC ASS HESS U, 2005, 13 WORLD BANK LOUGH JN, 1986, MON WEATHER REV, V114, P156 NICHOLSON SE, 1986, ARCH METEOR GEOPHY A, V34, P311 OGALLO LJ, 1988, J METEOROL SOC JPN, V66, P807 PALMER JN, 1986, NATURE, V322, P251 ROPELEWSKI CF, 1989, J CLIMATE, V2, P268 SKEES JR, 2004, INSURANCE POVERTY, P422 WOLDEGEORGIS T, 1997, USING SCI FAMINE FOO NR 30 TC 2 J9 PHIL TRANS ROY SOC B-BIOL SCI BP 2169 EP 2182 PY 2005 PD NOV 29 VL 360 IS 1463 GA 986CS UT ISI:000233427400016 ER PT J AU Warren, A Batterbury, S Osbahr, H TI Sustainability and Sahelian soils: evidence from Niger SO GEOGRAPHICAL JOURNAL LA English DT Article C1 Univ Coll London, Dept Geog, London WC1H 0AP, England. Univ Arizona, Dept Geog & Reg Dev, Tucson, AZ 85721 USA. RP Warren, A, Univ Coll London, Dept Geog, 26 Bedford Way, London WC1H 0AP, England. AB it is difficult to produce systems, for judging sustainability, despite general enthusiasm for the concept. Here we evaluate the 'capitals' formulation for sustainability which attempts to bring together the social and the environmental dimensions of the issue, and which has gained wide currency. We concentrate our attention on the 'natural capital' element in-this framework, which has apparently been seen as its least problematical component. We use data on soil erosion from a Sahelian agricultural community in Niger. Despite apparently high rates of erosion, we find it difficult to decide whether the system is, sustainable (using the capitals or any other framework). It is even dubious whether sustainability is an urgent concern. We caution against imposing yet another poorly formulated set of concepts on this and similar systems. CR *BAORD SUST DEV, 1999, OUR COMM JOURN TRANS *FAO, 2001, FAOSTATS STAT DAT FO ADAMS WM, 2001, GREEN DEV ENV SUSTAI AMISSAHARTHUR A, 2000, INT J GEOGR INF SCI, V14, P583 ANAND S, 1997, 1 UN DEV PROGR OFF D BATTERBURY S, 1999, ENVIRONMENT, V41, P6 BATTERBURY S, 2001, ECUMENE, V8, P437 BATTERBURY S, 2001, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V11, P1 BEBBINGTON A, 1999, WORLD DEV, V27, P2021 BIELDERS CL, 1998, WIND EROSION AFRICA, P95 BIELDERS CL, 2001, LAND DEGRAD DEV, V12, P57 BREMAN H, 2001, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V11, P59 BRETT EA, 2000, 0002 LSE DEV STUD I BRYCESON DF, 1999, 43 AFR STUD BRYCESON DF, 2000, NATURAL RESOURCES PE, V52 BUDELMAN A, 2000, NATURAL RESOURCES FO, V24, P173 CARNEY D, 1998, SUSTAINABLE RURAL LI CARNEY D, 1999, POVERTY BRIEFING, V2 CHAPPELL A, 1998, GEODERMA, V81, P313 CHAPPELL A, 1998, LAND DEGRAD DEV, V9, P295 COUR JM, 2001, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V11, P31 CRITCHLEY W, 1992, SOIL WATER CONSERVAT CROSSON PR, 1997, ENVIRONMENT, V39, P4 DALY H, 1992, STEADY STATE EC ESWARAN H, 1997, J SUSTAIN AGR, V10, P75 FARRINGTON J, 2001, NATURAL RESOURCES PE, V42 FINE B, 2000, SOCIAL CAPITAL VERSU FOLEY MW, 1999, J PUBLIC POLICY, V19, P141 GOLDMAN I, 2001, NATURAL RESOURCES PE, V50 GRAEF F, 2001, J ARID ENVIRON, V48, P221 GRIZTNER JA, 1988, 226 U CHIC PRESS GROOTAERT C, 2002, IN PRESS ROLE SOCIAL HARRISS J, 1997, J INT DEV, V9, P919 HARTWICK JM, 1986, EC NATURAL RESOURCE HEASLEY L, 1996, SOC NATUR RESOUR, V9, P31 HUND C, 2001, AFRICAN LAND TENURE KATES RW, 2001, SCIENCE, V292, P641 LAL R, 1993, WORLD SOIL EROSION C, P7 LAMERS JPA, 1995, NETH J AGR SCI, V43, P375 LEYS J, 1994, AUST J SOIL WATER CO, V7, P30 LUND C, 1998, LAW POWER POLITICS N MAXWELL D, 1999, DEV CHANGE, V30, P825 MEHTA L, 2001, 372 IDS MIDDLETON N, 2001, REDEFINING SUSTAINAB MORTIMORE MJ, 1998, ROOTS AFRICAN DUST S MORTIMORE MJ, 1999, WORKING SAHEL ENV SO NEEFJES K, 2000, ENV LIVELIHOODS STRA NEUMAYER E, 1999, WEAK VERSUS STRONG S OLOFIN EA, 1992, SOIL EROSION DRYLAND OSBAHR H, 1997, THESIS U COLL LONDON OSBAHR H, 2001, THESIS U COLL LONDON OSBAHR H, 2002, IN PRESS GEODEMA PEARCE DW, 1993, SUSTAINABLE ENV EC M, P70 PHILLIPS JD, 1993, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V83, P630 PIERCE MC, 1997, ACAD EMERG MED, V4, P22 POPP JH, 2000, ECOL MODEL, V130, P131 PRUGH T, 2000, LOCAL POLITICS GLOBA PUTNAM RD, 1993, AM PROSPECT, V13, P35 RAYNAUT C, 1997, SEI GLOBAL ENV DEV S REARDON T, 1995, AGR SYST, V48, P345 REDCLIFT M, 1994, STRATEGIES SUSTAINAB, P1 REIJ C, 1996, SUSTAINING SOIL, P1 RITCHIE JC, 2001, BIBLIO PUBLICATIONS ROCHETTE RM, 1989, SAHEL LUTTE CONTRE D ROLING NG, 1998, FACILITATING SUSTAIN, P283 ROUCH J, 1956, J SOC AFRICANISTES, V26, P33 SCOONES I, 2001, 72 IDS SCOONES I, 2001, DIVERSITY DYNAMICS S SERAGELDIN I, 1996, MONOGRAPH SERIES WOR, V5 SERAGELDIN I, 1999, CURRENT SCI, V75, P501 SNEDDON CS, 2000, PROG HUM GEOG, V24, P521 SOLOW RM, 1986, SCAND J ECON, V88, P141 STERK G, 1997, 15 WAG U STOCKING M, 1994, SOIL SCI SUSTAINABLE, P40 TAIT J, 2000, FUTURES, V32, P247 TAYLOR AG, 1996, SOILS SUSTAINABILITY TAYLORPOWELL E, 1991, TROPSOILS B N CAROLI, V9104 TURNER MD, 1999, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V89, P191 VANDERPOL F, 1992, B ROYAL KIT, V325 WACKERNAGEL M, 1997, ECOL ECON, V20, P3 WARREN A, 2001, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V11, P79 WILLIAMS TO, 1997, SOIL TILL RES, V42, P295 WOOLCOCK M, 2000, WORLD BANK RES OBSER, V15, P225 XU F, 1995, J SOIL WATER CONSERV, V50, P312 NR 84 TC 3 J9 GEOGR J BP 324 EP 341 PY 2001 PD DEC VL 167 GA 506BC UT ISI:000172949200003 ER PT J AU Tapela, BN TI The challenge of integration in the implementation of Zimbabwe's new water policy: case study of the catchment level institutions surrounding the Pungwe-Mutare water supply project SO PHYSICS AND CHEMISTRY OF THE EARTH LA English DT Article C1 Univ Western Cape, Ctr So African Studies, Water Studies Programme, ZA-7535 Bellville, South Africa. RP Tapela, BN, Univ Western Cape, Ctr So African Studies, Water Studies Programme, Post Bag X17, ZA-7535 Bellville, South Africa. AB Integrated water resources management (IWRM) is viewed by policy makers and practitioners as facilitating the achievement of a balance between water resource use and resource protection, and the resolution of water-related conflicts. The IWRM approach has found particular use in the new water policies of Southern African countries such as Zimbabwe, where water scarcity, after the land question, is perceived to be a major threat to political, economic, social, military and environmental security. Ultimately, IWRM is seen as providing a framework towards ensuring broader security at the local, national, regional and global levels. However, the pilot phase implementation of the new water policy in the various regional countries has revealed that although the legal and institutional frameworks have been put in place, the implementation of the IWRM approach has tended to be problematic (J. Latham, 2001; GTZ, 2000; Leestemaker, 2000; Savenige and van der Zaag, 2000; Sithole, 2000). This paper adopts a case study approach and empirically examines the institutional challenges of implementing the IWRM approach in the post-pilot phase of Zimbabwe's new water policy. The focus is mainly on the institutional arrangements surrounding the Pungwe-Mutare Water Supply Project located within the Save Catchment Area in Eastern Zimbabwe. The major findings of the study are that, while there persist some problems associated with the traditional management approach, there have also emerged new challenges to IWRM. These mainly relate to the transaction costs of the water sector reforms, institutional resilience, stakeholder participation, and the achievement of the desired outcomes. There have also been problems emanating from unexpected political developments at the local and national levels, particularly with regard to the government's "fast track" land resettlement programme. The paper concludes that there is a need for a more rigorous effort towards integrating the management of water resources by the catchment level institutions. (C) 2002 Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. CR 1995, STRATEGY INTEGRATED 2000, WATER RIVER SYSTEMS *DEP WAT DEV, 2000, MEMORANDUM UNDERSTAN *GTZ, 2000, HIST LESS LEARN FORM *NORCONSULT, 2000, REP ENV AUD TEAM MUT *UNESCO, 2000, DUBL STAT WAT ENV BOOTH K, 1994, SECURITY REGIME SO A DARKOH MBK, 1996, APPROACHING NATURE L, P73 LATHAM J, 2001, EXPERIENCES EQUITY E MURUNGWENI ZN, 2001, SEM M PHIL WAT STUD PARPART JL, 2001, RETHINKING EMPOWERME SITHOLD B, 2000, TELLING IT LIKE IT D SKANSKA, 1999, PUNGWE MUTARE WATER SWATUK LA, 2000, SWIMMING UPSTREAM WA TAPELA BN, 1997, INT C ENV DEV AG 21 VANDERZAAG P, 2001, WATER RESOURCES MANA VANDERZAAG P, 2001, WATER RESOURCES MANA, CH1 VANDERZAAG P, 2001, WATER RESOURCES MANA, CH3 VAZ AC, 2000, WATER POLICY, V2, P1 WALKER PA, 2000, COMMONS SO AFRICA, V2, P4 NR 20 TC 0 J9 PHYS CHEM EARTH BP 993 EP 1004 PY 2002 VL 27 IS 11-22 GA 614BH UT ISI:000179166600037 ER PT J AU Thomas, A Tellam, J TI Modelling of recharge and pollutant fluxes to urban groundwaters SO SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT LA English DT Article C1 Univ Birmingham, Hydrogeol Res Grp, Sch Geog Earth & Environm Sci, Birmingham B15 2TT, W Midlands, England. Univ Western Cape, Dept Earth Sci, ZA-7535 Bellville, South Africa. RP Tellam, J, Univ Birmingham, Hydrogeol Res Grp, Sch Geog Earth & Environm Sci, Birmingham B15 2TT, W Midlands, England. AB Urban groundwater resources are of considerable importance to the long-term viability of many cities world-wide, yet prediction of the quantity and quality of recharge is only rarely attempted at anything other than a very basic level. This paper describes the development of UGIf, a simple model written within a GIS, designed to provide estimates of spatially distributed recharge and recharge water quality in unconfined but covered aquifers. The following processes (with their calculation method indicated) are included: runoff and interception (curve number method); evapotranspiration (Penman-Grindley); interflow (empirical index approach); volatilization (Henry's law); sorption (distribution coefficient); and degradation (first order decay). The input data required are: meteorological data, landuse/cover map with event mean concentration attributes, geological maps with hydraulic and geochemical attributes, and topographic and water table elevation data in grid form. Standard outputs include distributions of: surface runoff, infiltration, potential recharge, ground level slope, interflow, actual recharge, pollutant fluxes in surface runoff, travel times of each pollutant through the unsaturated zone, and the pollutant fluxes and concentrations at the water table. The process of validation has commenced with a study of the Triassic Sandstone aquifer underlying Birmingham, UK. UGIf predicts a similar average recharge rate for the aquifer as previous groundwater flow modelling studies, but with significantly more spatial detail: in particular the results indicate that recharge through paved areas may be more important than previously thought. The results also highlight the need for more knowledge/data on the following: runoff estimation; interflow (including the effects of lateral flow and channelling on flow times and therefore chemistry); evapotranspiration in paved areas; the nature of unsaturated zone flow below paved areas; and the role of the pipe network. Although considerably more verification is needed, UGIf shows promise for use: in providing input for regional groundwater solute transport models; in identifying gaps in knowledge and data; in determining which processes are the most important influences on urban groundwater quantity and quality; in evaluating existing recharge models; in planning, for example in investigation of the effects of landuse or climate change; and in assessing groundwater vulnerability. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. CR 1997, P 27 INT ASS HYDR C *AFRICOVER, 1998, TECHN DOC AFRICOVER *BRIT GEOL SURV, 2000, DIG DRIFT SOL GEOL *NCSPA, 1999, MOD SEW DES *US EPA, 1983, 20460 US EPA *US EPA, 1998, EPA600R87128A *US EPA, 1998, EPA600R87128B ALLEN DJ, 1997, PHYS PROP MAJ AQ ENG ANTONIO E, 1999, STORMWATER DRAIN CHE BRIDGE DM, 1997, WE9549 BRIT GEOL SUR BROWNE FX, 1990, STANDARD HDB ENV ENG BUDDEMEIER RW, 1996, GROUNDWATER FLUX OCE CLAPP RB, 1978, WATER RESOUR RES, V14, P601 DEBIE CA, 1996, LAND USE DATABASE KN DELZER GC, 1991, WATER RESOURCES INVE DURR CS, 2003, THESIS U BIRMINGHAM ELLIS PA, 2003, THESIS U BIRMINGHAM FORD M, 1992, J HYDROL, V140, P297 FORD M, 1994, J HYDROL, V156, P101 FREEZE RA, 1979, GROUNDWATER GRESWELL RB, 1992, THESIS U BIRMINGHAM HARRIS JM, 2000, URBAN RUNOFF CONTRIB HOWARD KWF, 2002, CURRENT PROBLEMS HYD, V8 JACKSON D, 1983, Q J ENG GEOL, V16, P135 KNIPE CV, 1993, CIRIA SPECIAL PUBLIC, V92 LOPES TJ, 98409 US GEOL SURV NARANJO E, 1998, GIS BASED NONPOINT P RITSEMA CJ, 1999, J HYDROL, V215, P1 RIVETT MO, 1990, J HYDROL, V113, P307 SHEPHERD KA, 2003, THESIS U BIRMINGHAM SHEPHERD KA, 2006, UK SCI TOTAL ENV, V360, P180 SHEPP DL, 1996, PETROLEUM HYDROCARBO SILILO OTN, 2000, GROUND WATER, V38, P864 TELLAM JH, 2002, NATO SCI S SS IV EAR, V8, P139 THOMAS AA, 2001, THESIS U BIRMINGHAM NR 35 TC 1 J9 SCI TOTAL ENVIR BP 158 EP 179 PY 2006 PD MAY 1 VL 360 IS 1-3 GA 047HN UT ISI:000237870500013 ER PT J AU Unruh, GC Carrillo-Hermosilla, J TI Globalizing carbon lock-in SO ENERGY POLICY LA English DT Review C1 Inst Empresa, Madrid 28006, Spain. RP Unruh, GC, Inst Empresa, Madrid Molina 12, Madrid 28006, Spain. AB This paper extends the arguments surrounding carbon lock-in elaborated in Unruh (Energy Policy 28 (2000) 817; 30 (2002) 317) to countries currently undergoing industrialization. it argues that, for numerous reasons, industrializing countries are unlikely to leapfrog carbon intensive energy development. On the contrary, carbon lock-in may be globalizing and could further constrain climate change mitigation options. It is then argued that many policy recommendations ignore carbon lock-in, possibly limiting their potential for successful implementation. The paper then discusses four policy approaches that appear to have advantages given lock-in conditions. It is recognized, however, that relative ease of implementation does not necessarily equate with superiority. Instead, it is merely a path dependent outcome of past development decisions. Pursuing policies on the basis of relative implementation ease may help address the issue of climate change, but could also result in sub-optimal outcomes along other dimensions of sustainable development. (c) 2004 Published by Elsevier Ltd. 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AB A study of the area, including Rosetta city and the estuary of the river Nile (Rosetta branch), has been carried out for assessment of the impact of sea level rise (sir). A geographic information system (GIS) has been built including layers of land use, topography, archeological sites, land cover and population. Analysis of data has been carried out to assess vulnerability of various land use and land cover classes to the impact of sea level rise. Because the area under study has geomorphic relief profiles just over the sea level, inundation of total land could reach 26% of total study area due to only half a meter rise in sea level. This lost area includes 32% of urban clusters mainly used for human shelter and contains 52% of present monuments, 25% of valuable high quality dense palm trees cultivation, 75% of beaches and 19% of lands suitable, 25% of valuable high quality dense palm trees cultivation, 75% of beaches and 19% of lands suitable for agricultural reclamation (although suffering from salt water intrusion and soil salinization). This is expected to cause a significant impact on the present population, economic activities, total regional revenue, and also on tourism. At 1.1 m sea level rise, 72% to total study area could be inundated. This area contains all beaches, half of the palm cultivation, 43% of total urban clusters, which includes 81% of the monumental sites and historic buildings. Other environmental problems such as solid waste management, sanitary disposal network, deteriorating conditions of some monumental structures, in addition to the sea level rise act negatively on the environmental quality of the urban community. Future plans for urban expansion in the area must be studied carefully in order to preserve valuable palm lands and maintain and protect monuments and historic sites which help the promotion of tourism. An environmental management program is essential for upgrading tourism, promoting urban development and protecting coastal lands. 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Simon Fraser Univ, Dept Geog, Burnaby, BC V5A 1S6, Canada. RP Reed, MG, Univ Saskatchewan, Dept Geog, 9 Campus Dr, Saskatoon, SK S7N 5A5, Canada. AB While stakeholder involvement in environmental management is now common, we suggest that stakeholders can contribute to a pluralistic civic science that incorporates local knowledge directly into environmental decision making and research. We consider how insights from feminist scholarship might help us to understand the influence of power relations among our subjects of study and in determining how scientific knowledge is defined and used. We pay particular attention to how knowledge is produced, how participation is constrained, and to what extent community participants and researchers would benefit from critical reflection in their work. We apply these elements to an assessment of a community forestry pilot project in Burns Lake, British Columbia, Canada. Our findings suggest that while local participants have considered community forestry effective, practices have not met the ideals of a pluralistic civic science. We identify some of the reasons for this discrepancy and provide suggestions for future practice. 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Univ Reading, CGAM, Dept Meteorol, Reading RG6 6BB, Berks, England. RP Huntingford, C, Ctr Ecol & Hydrol, Wallingford OX10 8BB, Oxon, England. AB Projected changes in surface climate are reviewed at a range of temporal scales, with an emphasis on tropical northern Africa-a region considered to be particularly vulnerable to climate change. Noting the key aspects of 'weather' affecting crop yield, we then consider relevant and projected change using output from a range of state of the art global climate models (GCMs), and for different future emission scenarios. The outputs from the models reveal significant inter-model variation in the change expected by the end of the twenty-first century for even the lowest IPCC emission scenario. We provide a set of recommendations on future model diagnostics, configurations and ease of use to close further the gap between GCMs and smaller-scale crop models. 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AB This paper analyzes environmental degradation in rural China as structurally embedded in China's rapid economic growth in the post-Mao era. The theoretical discussion focuses on changes in the organization of production, resource use, and regional development. A critical assessment of the Chinese hybrid economy challenges standard views of the reforms. The overall environmental problems of state socialist agriculture in China have been aggravated following the agrarian reforms of the current regime, Rather than mitigating negative trends, marketization and privatization have brought new, qualitatively different, environmental problems. Resource decline and its attendant social problems are not limited to aspects of transitional economy but are a fundamental part of the new hybrid system. I offer an alternative explanation for interpreting increases in rural productivity as an appropriation and use of collective assets, suggesting that the mining of communal capital is hidden behind the economic growth of the rural economy. Case studies in Heilongjiang Province based on long-term field data provide a profile of three aspects: intensification of land use, agroindustrial pollution, and declining social/communal capital. Further, the political legitimacy of the state is gradually eroded by mutually exclusive fiscal constraints on expenditure and political commitments to peasant producers. Recent repression of political dissent by peasants in hinterland regions forces indirect forms of resistance to state policy. Opportunities for sustainable development are nonetheless present within China, providing that policy makers attempt to address the structural conditions of the rural sector. 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AB The so-called greenhouse effect, global warning and associated sea-level rise are becoming accepted as probable scenarios of future climatic change. Planning authorities are therefore in need of methods of determining what the socio-economic and environmental impacts of climatic changes will be. This article reviews a proposed coastal vulnerability index (CVI) designed to assess the impacts of sea-level rise on the coastal environment worldwide, and develops a new risk-analysis procedure, on a smaller scale, using an economic hierarchy. It identifies high- and low-risk locations, high- and low-risk infrastructure in those locations, and those processes most likely to be detrimental to that infrastructure. The CVI and the risk-analysis procedure are applied to the developed areas of the southern Cape coast and show the most vulnerable areas to be those surrounding estuaries and lagoons. The greatest hazards overall are from extreme storm and flood events and the most vulnerable infrastructure is that of private housing. This suggests that the initial costs of the impacts of sea-level rise on this section of the coast will be borne by the private individual and not the nation as a whole. Suggestions for further studies are given which could help refine existing predictions of the detrimental effects of rising sea levels on the South African coastal environment. CR BRUUN P, 1962, J WATERWAYS HARBORS, V88, P117 GORNITZ V, 1989, 6TH P S COAST OC MAN HUGHES P, 1991, T R SOC S AFR, V45, P501 KEW RA, 1989, SCIENCE, V247, P521 THOMAS RH, 1987, PROG OCEANOGR, V18, P23 TSONIS AA, 1989, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V16, P795 NR 6 TC 7 J9 S AFR J SCI BP 308 EP 311 PY 1992 PD JUN VL 88 IS 6 GA JC095 UT ISI:A1992JC09500005 ER PT J AU Suman, D Guerzoni, S Molinaroli, E TI Integrated coastal management in the Venice lagoon and its watershed SO HYDROBIOLOGIA LA English DT Article C1 CNR, Ist Sci Marine, I-30122 Venice, Italy. Univ Miami, Rosenstiel Sch Marine & Atmospher Sci, Div Marine Affairs & Policy, Miami, FL 33149 USA. Univ Venice, Dipartimento Sci Ambientali, I-30123 Venice, Italy. RP Guerzoni, S, CNR, Ist Sci Marine, Riva 7 Martiri 1364-A, I-30122 Venice, Italy. AB The Venice Lagoon (VL) is a complex ecosystem in which public participation and area-based management has often been neglected by administrative bodies involved in the planning of coastal projects and public works. In this area, the analysis of the local situation highlighted a substantial absence of coordination among the various administrative bodies in charge of planning and management at various governmental levels and in different regulated economic sectors. This paper analyses public participation and collaboration with reference to the Integrated Coastal Management context (ICM). The paper examines specific requirements, constraints, and opportunities for the complex case of the VL where participatory management and institutional coordination need enhancement. 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Princeton Univ, Dept Geosci, Princeton, NJ 08544 USA. RP Oppenheimer, M, Princeton Univ, Woodrow Wilson Sch, Robertson Hall 448, Princeton, NJ 08544 USA. AB Article 2 of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), which states the treaty's long-term objective, is the subject of a growing literature that examines means to interpret and implement this provision. Here we provide context for these studies by exploring the intertwined scientific, legal, economic, and political history of Article 2. We review proposed definitions for "dangerous anthropogenic interference" and frameworks that have been proposed for implementing these definitions. Specific examples of dangerous climate changes suggest limits on global warming ranging from 1 to 4 degrees C and on concentrations ranging from 450 to 700 ppm CO2 equivalents. The implications of Article 2 for near term restrictions on greenhouse-gas emissions, e.g., the Kyoto Protocol, are also discussed. 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Inst Pasteur, Paris, France. African Dev Bank, Tunis, Tunisia. RP Garenne, M, IRD, Paris, France. AB In Zambia, under-five mortality declined from 1958 to 1975, rose from 1975 to 1992, before resuming its decline from 1992 to 2001. The study investigates the economic, political, and epidemiologic determinants of these changes. The rise in mortality could be explained by an economic downturn (declining income per capita, resulting from lower copper prices on international markets and decreasing production, and its numerous consequences), and to a lesser extent by emerging diseases (increasing mortality from HIV/AIDS and resistant malaria). However, mortality decline could resume as a result of building social and health capital, in particular health personnel, and favorable health policies. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR 2002, ECONOMIST 0601 *REP ZAMB, 1984, REP JOINT EV HLTH CA *REP ZAMB, 1988, B HLTH STAT 1985 86 *REP ZAMB, 1992, NAT HLTH POL STRAT H *REP ZAMB, 1993, ZAMB DEM HLTH SURV 1 *REP ZAMB, 1994, B HLTH STAT 1989 92 *REP ZAMB, 1995, HLTH FAC ZAMB 1995 *REP ZAMB, 1997, EV POV ZAMB 1991 96 *REP ZAMB, 1997, TRENDS DEM FAM PLANN *REP ZAMB, 1997, ZAMB DEM HLTH SURV 1 *REP ZAMB, 1998, LIV COND ZAMB 1998 *REP ZAMB, 2000, QUART DIG STAT THIRD *REP ZAMB, 2001, NAT 10 YEAR HUM RES *REP ZAMB, 2001, SEL SOC EC IND 2000 *REP ZAMB, 2002, EC REP 2001 *REP ZAMB, 2003, ZAMB DEM HLTH SURV 2 *UNICEF, 2005, STAT WORLD 2005 *WORLD BANK, 1984, ZAMB POP HLTH NUTR S *WORLD BANK, 1986, ZAMB PUBL EXP REV, V1 *WORLD BANK, 1996, COUNTR MEM ISS OPT E *WORLD BANK, 2001, 22543ZA WORLD BANK ADAMS M, 2003, LAND TENURE POLICY P AHMAD OB, 2000, B WORLD HEALTH ORGAN, V78, P1175 ATKINSON S, 1997, J INT DEV, V9, P631 BATES R, 1993, POLITICAL EC INTERAC, P387 BERMAN P, 1995, ZAMBIA NON GOVT HLTH BIGSTEN A, 2000, 22 DEP EC GOT U BIGSTEN A, 2001, WORLD ECON, V2, P139 BIJL HM, 2000, TROP MED INT HEALTH, V5, P692 BLAS E, 2001, HEALTH POLICY PLA S2, V16, P19 BLAS E, 2001, HEALTH POLICY PLA S2, V16, P29 BLOOM G, 1996, UNPUB ADAPTATION ZAM BURDETTE MM, 1997, ZAMBIA 2 WORLDS COLLIER P, 1991, AFR AFFAIRS, V90, P330 COLLIER P, 1999, J ECON LIT, V37, P64 COLLIER P, 1999, J ECON PERSPECT, V13, P3 COMBES JL, 2001, DEV POLICY REV, V20, P25 COUSSY J, 1991, AFRIQUES POLITIQUES, P123 DALOZ JP, 1996, ZAMBIE CONT DEATON A, 1999, J ECON PERSPECT, V13, P23 DUBRESSON A, 1996, ZAMBIE CONT, P125 ETTLING M, 1997, EFFICACY CHLOROQUINE FARDI MAF, 1991, RESTRUCTURING EC DIS, P332 FREUND PJ, 1986, POLITICS DISAPPOINTM FREUND PJ, 1986, SOC SCI MED, V23, P875 FUSSUM D, 1994, 1994 EPI GARENNE M, 2003, 200308 CERDI GARENNE M, 2005, 26 DHS IRD MACR CALV GUILLAUMONT P, 1999, EC VULNERABILITY LOW GWATKIN DR, 1980, POPUL DEV REV, V6, P615 HANMER L, 1999, HUMAN DEV SUB SAHARA HANMER L, 2003, J DEV STUD, V40, P101 HILL K, 1999, TRENDS CHILD MORTALI HUNT S, 1994, STUDY SERIAL, V18 KALUMBA K, 1997, 6 SECR DIV AN RES AS KALUMBA P, 1989, J HLTH POLICY PLANNI, V4, P219 KELLY MJ, 1991, 8 EDI DEV POL MADDISON A, 2001, WORLD EC MILLENNIAL MADDISON A, 2003, WORLD EC MAKRIDAKIS S, 1997, YEARLY COPPER PRICES MEDINA E, 1983, B PAN AM HLTH ORG, V17, P221 MOGEDAL S, 1995, J INT DEV, V7, P349 MUUKA GN, 1997, SCANDINAVIAN J DEV A, V16, P139 NDE JM, 1994, 2 WHO NSEMUKILA G, 1994, UNICEF MONOGRAPH, V1 RAKNER L, 2001, AID REFORM AFRICA, P532 SCOTT G, 2001, EC CHANGE GOVERNANCE, P69 SESHAMANI V, 1992, AFRICAS RECOVERY 199 SIMMS C, 1998, 76 IDS SIMMS C, 2000, 121 IDS SRINIVASAN TN, 1990, DEV THOUGHT STRATEGY TAUCHER E, 1997, REV MED CHILE, V125, P1225 TUROK B, 1989, MIXED EC FOCUS ZAMBI WHITE H, 1997, HOW CAN WE EXPLAIN R NR 74 TC 0 J9 WORLD DEVELOP BP 1765 EP 1787 PY 2006 PD OCT VL 34 IS 10 GA 097CI UT ISI:000241423600006 ER PT J AU PEPPER, D TI PHYSICAL AND HUMAN INTEGRATION - AN EDUCATIONAL-PERSPECTIVE FROM BRITISH HIGHER-EDUCATION SO PROGRESS IN HUMAN GEOGRAPHY LA English DT Article CR *ASS GRAD CAR ADV, 1985, RESP GOV GREEN PAP D *CONF BRIT IND, 1980, EV HOUS COMM SEL COM *NAT ADV BOD, 1986, 786 REP *STAND C EMPL GRAD, 1985, SURF WHAT EMPL LOOK BENNETT RJ, 1985, QUANTIFICATION RELEV BOOKCHIN M, 1980, ECOLOGICAL SOC BOWLES S, 1976, SCH CAPITALIST AM BOYSON R, 1980, TIMES HIGHER S 1003 BRADLEY P, 1983, SOC NATURE SOCIALIST BROWN EH, 1975, GEOGR J, V141, P35 BRUNSDEN D, 1985, FUTURE GEOGRAPHY BURTON I, 1978, ENV HAZARD, V1, P1 BUTZER KW, 1964, ENV ARCHAEOLOGY BUTZER KW, 1982, ARCHAEOLOGY HUMAN EC CAPRA F, 1982, TURNING POINT CAPRA F, 1984, GREEN POLITICS CARHART J, 1986, GCSE SYLLABUSES CHOI CHORLEY RJ, 1969, WATER EARTH MAN COOKE RU, 1974, GEOMORPHOLOGY ENV MA COOKE RU, 1978, J GEOGRAPHY HIGHER E, V2, P113 COOKE RU, 1982, URBAN GEOMORPHOLOGY COOKE RU, 1985, PERSPECTIVES CHANGIN, P36 CROSS J, 1986, GUARDIAN 0211 DOORNKAMP JC, 1979, AREA, V11, P307 DOUGLAS I, 1983, URBAN ENV DOUGLAS I, 1987, J GEOGRAPHY HIGHER E, V10, P191 GOUDIE A, 1981, HUMAN IMPACT MANS RO GOULD P, 1973, DIRECTIONS GEOGRAPHY GOULD P, 1985, FUTURE GEOGRAPHY GREGORY KJ, 1979, MAN ENV PROCESS GREGORY KJ, 1985, NATURE PHYSICAL GEOG HAIGH MJ, 1985, GEOFORUM, V16, P191 HALES M, 1982, SCI SOC HANCOCK D, 1986, JAN ANN C I BRIT GEO HARRIS K, 1979, ED KNOWLEDGE HARVEY D, 1974, T I BRIT GEOGR, V63, P18 HEWITT K, 1973, 20 ASS AM GEOGR COMM HEWITT K, 1983, INTERPRETATIONS CALA HUCKLE J, 1983, GEOGRAPHICAL ED REFL, CH10 HUCKLE J, 1985, FUTURE GEOGRAPHY HURST ME, 1985, FUTURE GEOGRAPHY JOHNSTON RJ, 1977, J GEOGRAPHY HIGHER E, V1, P5 JOHNSTON RJ, 1983, GEOGRAPHY GEOGRAPHER JOHNSTON RJ, 1983, PROG PHYS GEOG, V7, P127 JOHNSTON RJ, 1985, FUTURE GEOGRAPHY JOHNSTON RJ, 1986, HUMAN GEOGRAPHY JONES DKC, 1983, T I BRIT GEOGR, V8, P429 JOSEPH K, 1985, APR ANN C GEOGR ASS LEE R, 1986, J GEOGR HIGHER EDUC, V10, P7 LINDSAY R, 1984, SURVEY EMPLOYERS GRA MAUNDER WH, 1970, VALUE WEATHER NEWSON MD, 1975, GEOGRAPHICAL J, V141, P35 ORME A, 1985, FUTURE GEOGRAPHY PARKER DJ, 1979, GEOGRAPHY, V64, P307 PARKER DJ, 1980, WATER PLANNING BRITA PEPPER D, 1983, SOC NATURE SOCIALIST PEPPER D, 1986, CONT ISSUES GEOGRAPH, V2, P62 RICHARDS G, 1983, SOC NATURE SOCIALIST ROIZEN J, 1985, DEGREES JOBS EMPLOYE ROSE S, 1984, NOT OUR GENES BIOL I SACK R, 1980, CONCEPTION SPACE SOC SCHUMACHER F, 1973, SMALL IS BEAUTIFUL SIMMONS IG, 1985, FUTURE GEOGRAPHY SKOLIMOWSKI H, 1981, ECOPHILOSOPHY SUGDEN D, 1978, J GEOGRAPHY HIGHER E, V2, P14 SUGDEN DE, 1979, AREA, V11, P309 UNWIN T, 1986, J GEOGR HIGHER EDUC, V10, P149 WILBANKS TJ, 1979, PROF GEOGR, V31, P1 WORSLEY P, 1979, FUTURE GEOGRAPHY NR 69 TC 3 J9 PROG HUM GEOGR BP 379 EP 404 PY 1987 PD SEP VL 11 IS 3 GA K8849 UT ISI:A1987K884900004 ER PT J AU BROCK, L TI PEACE THROUGH PARKS - THE ENVIRONMENT ON THE PEACE RESEARCH AGENDA SO JOURNAL OF PEACE RESEARCH LA English DT Article C1 UNIV FRANKFURT,INT RELAT,W-6000 FRANKFURT 1,GERMANY. RP BROCK, L, PEACE RES INST FRANKFURT,FRANKFURT,GERMANY. AB The environment has now become firmly established as an item on the agenda of peace research. However, perceptions of the interrelationship between peace and environmental issues differ widely. In order to prepare the way for systematic analysis of this interrelationship, four linkages are identified here: causal, instrumental, definitional and normative. Since environmental issues are not only to be treated as non-military threats to the security of societies, but can also work to promote cooperation and peace-building, the causal, instrumental and definitional linkages are sub-categorized as having positive and negative aspects. Environmental security is identified as a normative linkage designed to cope with the negative aspects of the other linkages. Whether this will lead to a militarization of environmental politics, or rather help to demilitarize security thinking remains an open question. The answer will depend very much on the positive aspects of the causal and instrumental linkages. Up to now, ecological cooperation has to be seen as a dependent variable reflecting the state of overall international relations. However, there are some indications that environmental cooperation may develop an Eigendynamik of its own and become an independent variable with influence of its own on world politics. CR 1989, ENV SECURITY ALBRECHT U, 1983, NATUR 0808, P102 ALBRECHT U, 1983, NATUR 0808, P50 BACHLER G, 1990, DIALOGUE, V18, P231 BARNABY F, 1976, B ATOM SCI, V32, P36 BROCKUTNE B, 1988, CULTURAL NORMS WAR E, P83 BROWN LR, 1977, 14 WORLDW I PAP BRUNDTLAND GH, 1987, OUR COMMON FUTURE BRZOSKA M, 1983, J PEACE RES, V13, P271 COLINVAUX P, 1980, FATES NATIONS BIOL T DEGER S, 1985, IDS BULL-I DEV STUD, V16, P49 DEJONNES AM, 1825, PREMIER MEMOIRE RESP DEUDNEY D, 1990, MILLENNIUM-J INT ST, V19, P461 FALK RA, 1973, B PEACE PROPOSALS, V4, P1 FALK RA, 1984, ENV WARFARE TECHNICA, P33 FALKENMARK M, 1986, GLOBAL RESOURCES INT, P85 FINGER M, 1990, 13TH GEN C INT PEAC GOLDBLAT J, 1978, WORLD ARMAMENTS DISA HERRERA AO, 1977, GRENZEN ELENDS BARIL HOLST JJ, 1989, B PEACE PROPOSALS, V20, P123 HUBER W, 1987, FRIEDEN SCHOPFUNG, P83 JANICKE M, 1979, INDUSTRIESYSTEM SEIN KRUSEWITZ K, 1985, UMWELTKRIEG MILITAR LEROY M, 1986, GLOBAL RESOURCES INT, P159 LIPSCHUTZ RD, 1990, B PEACE PROPOSALS, V21, P121 LIST M, 1990, INT REGIMES E W POLI, P90 LODGAARD S, 1990, MAR UNEP M ENV CONFL LOONEY RE, 1986, J PEACE RES, V23, P329 LUARD E, 1986, WAR INT SOC LUARD E, 1988, BLUNTED SWORD EROSIO MAYERTASCH PC, 1987, VERSEUCHTE LANDKARTE MEYERABICH KM, 1984, WEGE ZUM FRIEDEN NAT MEYERABICH KM, 1990, BILD WISSENSCHAFT, V27, P66 MISCHE P, 1989, BREAKTHROUGH, V11, P7 MOLVAER RK, 1990, B PEACE PROPOSALS, V21, P135 MUELLER J, 1989, RETREAT DOOMSDAY OBS MULLER H, 1987, SECURITY ENV REPORT, P20 MULLER H, 1989, EINFUHRUNG INT POLIT, P324 MULLER H, 1990, UMWELT KONFLIKT MYERS N, 1985, 2ND BIENN C FAT EART, P47 MYERS N, 1986, ENVIRONMENTALIST, V6, P251 NORTH R, 1984, MULTIDISCIPLINARY PE, P195 PALME O, 1982, COMMON SECURITY RENNER M, 1989, 89 WORLDW PAP RITTBERGER V, 1990, INT REGIMES E W POLI SCHRIJVER N, 1989, B PEACE PROPOSALS, V20, P115 SIEBERT H, 1990, VERGEUDETE UMWELT STEPANEK B, 1990, FRIEDENSFORSCHUNG DE, P83 THORSELL J, 1990, NAT HIST, V99, P56 THORSELL J, 1990, PARKS BORDERLINE EXP TIMOSCHENKO AS, 1989, BREAKTHROUGH, V10, P22 ULLMAN RH, 1983, INT SECURITY, V8, P129 WESTING A, 1988, J PEACE RES, V25, P257 WESTING AH, 1976, ECOLOGICAL CONSEQUEN WESTING AH, 1984, ENV WARFARE TECHNICA WESTING AH, 1986, GLOBAL RESOURCES INT NR 56 TC 10 J9 J PEACE RES BP 407 EP 423 PY 1991 PD NOV VL 28 IS 4 GA GP490 UT ISI:A1991GP49000006 ER PT J AU Ingram, JC Franco, G Rumbaitis-del Rio, C Khazai, B TI Post-disaster recovery dilemmas: challenges in balancing short-term and long-term needs for vulnerability reduction SO ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE & POLICY LA English DT Article C1 Columbia Univ, Dept Civil Engn & Engn Mech, New York, NY 10027 USA. Columbia Univ, Earth Inst, Ctr Hazards & Risk Res, New York, NY 10027 USA. AB Following disasters, governments often clamor to quickly reduce risk, rebuild communities and restore permanence. The pressure to urgently address complex, difficult decisions can result in reactive policies that may increase long-term vulnerability of affected populations. Sri Lanka in the aftermath of the 26 December 2004 tsunami represents such an example: a hastily designed coastal buffer zone policy has incited massive relocation of affected populations and resulted in social, economic and environmental problems that threaten the well-being of poor coastal communities. We review the impacts of this policy from its inception, days after the tsunami hit the island, until its revision, approximately 10 months following the disaster. We then apply a framework to conceptualize the components of vulnerability within Sri Lanka's coastal, human-environment system and to identify where post-disaster policies should focus to reduce vulnerability of coastal populations more effectively. From this analysis, it is apparent that the buffer zone policy gave disproportionate attention to reducing exposure to future tsunamis and, subsequently, did not address the critical social, economic and institutional factors that influenced sensitivity to the hazard. Post-disaster policies aimed at sustainable re-development should be informed by an analysis of the components of vulnerability that comprise a system and how these can be most effectively influenced during the separate short-term and long-term phases of rebuilding. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *GOV SRI LANK DEV, 2005, POSTTS REC REC *IUCN WORLD CONS U, 2005, 3 IUCN WORLD CONS UN *IUCN WORLD CONS U, 2005, RAP ENV SOC ASS TSUN *IUCN, 2005, 1 IUCN WORLD CONS UN *IUCN, 2005, 9 IUCN WORLD CONS UN *MIN URB DEV WAT S, 2005, ASS POL IMPL GUID *OXF, 2005, SRI LANK TSUN CHALL *WORLD BANK, 2005, TSUN REC SNAPSH ROAD ADGER WN, 2005, SCIENCE, V309, P1036 BLAIKIE PM, 1994, RISK NATURAL HAZARDS, V1, P1 BOHLE HG, 1994, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V4, P37 BURTON I, 1978, ENV HAZARD, V1, P1 CARDONA O, 2003, MAPPING VULNERABILIT, CH3 CHARNY J, 2005, SRI LANKA TSUNAMI SU COMFORT LK, 2005, ANNU REV POLIT SCI, V8, P335 DAHDOUHGUEBAS F, 2005, CURR BIOL, V15, P1337 DEGG MR, 2005, GEOGR J 2, V171, P125 FERNANDO HJS, 2005, EOS, V86, P301 FERNANDO HSJ, 2005, EOS, V86, P304 FUSSEL HM, 2006, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V75, P301 HARRIS S, 2005, FORCED MIGR REV, P34 HETTIARACHCHI SSL, 2005, P I CIVIL ENG-MAR EN, V158, P25 JAYASURIYA S, 2005, 39 U MELB I POL STUD KHAZAI B, 2006, EARTHQ SPECTRA, V22, S829 LIU PLF, 2005, SCIENCE, V308, P1595 LUTHRA D, 2005, SRI LANKAS SLOW TSUN LUTHRA D, 2005, TSUNAMI SHADOW SRI L MASKREY A, 1989, DEV GUIDELINES MILETI DS, 1999, DISASTERS DESIGN REA MILLER G, 2005, SCIENCE, V309, P1030 PELLING M, 2003, VULNERABILITY CITIES PREUSS J, 1983, TSUNAMIS THEIR SCI E, P527 RICE A, 2005, POSTTSUNAMI RECONSTR SAMARASINGHE J, 2005, COMMUNICATION SHANMUGARATNAM N, 2005, TSUNAMI VICTIMS PERC STOMS DM, 2005, FRONT ECOL ENVIRON, V3, P429 TURNER BL, 2003, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V100, P8074 NR 37 TC 0 J9 ENVIRON SCI POLICY BP 607 EP 613 PY 2006 PD NOV-DEC VL 9 IS 7-8 GA 114WS UT ISI:000242696900002 ER PT J AU Sutherst, RW Collyer, BS Yonow, T TI The vulnerability of Australian horticulture to the Queensland fruit fly, Bactrocera (Dacus) tryoni, under climate change SO AUSTRALIAN JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL RESEARCH LA English DT Article C1 CSIRO Entomol, Long Pocket Labs, CRC Trop Pest Management, Indooroopilly, Qld 4068, Australia. RP Sutherst, RW, CSIRO Entomol, Long Pocket Labs, CRC Trop Pest Management, PMB 3, Indooroopilly, Qld 4068, Australia. AB The vulnerability of horticultural industries in Australia to the Queensland fruit fly Bactrocera (Dacus) tryoni under climate change is examined. Vulnerability is defined in terms of sensitivity and adaptation options. Regional estimates of fruit fly density are fed into an economic model that takes account of costs of damage, management, regulation and research. Sensitivity analyses are used to estimate potential future costs under climate change by recalculating costs with increases in temperature of 0.5 degrees C, 1.0 degrees C and 2 degrees C. It is assumed that irrigation will automatically compensate for any changes in rainfall. The current national, annual cost of Queensland fruit fly is estimated to be $AU28.5 million/year ($25.7-49.9 million), with 60% of the cost borne by commercial growers. Climatic warming threatens the sustainability of area freedom in the Fruit Fly Exclusion Zone (FFEZ) and is likely to increase damage and control costs to commercial growers in endemic areas, except in northern Australia. Costs to mainland apple, orange, and pear growers are estimated to increase by $3.1, $4.7, and $12.0 million with increases of 0.5 degrees C, 1.0 degrees C, and 2 degrees C, respectively. These represent increases of 25%, 38%, and 95%, respectively, but do not reflect the greatly increased risks of failure to maintain area freedom in the FFEZ. Growers in endemic Queensland fruit fly areas can expect their costs to increase 42-82%, compared with 24-83% in the FFEZ. Increased damage to backyard growers is likely, especially in South Australia and Victoria. Thus the fly poses a real threat to southern States under modest projected increases in temperatures. The extent of the likely cost increases raises questions about the industries' ability to pay and remain competitive. The current analysis illustrates the potential benefits of taking a national and strategic approach to the management of insect pests in Australia. A combination of CLIMEX modelling, sensitivity analysis and mapping provided valuable insights into both industry and regional vulnerabilities. Adaptation options require further quantification, but that awaits a credible population model of Queensland fruit fly. Costs need to be discounted, depending on the expected timing of the temperature increases. CR 1975, CLIMATIC AVERAGES AU 1993, PROPOSAL ESTABLISH F 1994, SCARM FRUIT FLY WORK 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE SCENA *ABS, 1996, OUTL 96 *ABS, 1997, OUTL 96 *HORT POL COUNC, 1991, IMP FRUIT FLIES AUST *IPCC, 1996, CONTRIBUTION WORKING ADAMSON D, 1988, P BIOEC WORKSH POSTA COLQUHOUN E, 1998, CT97024 HRDC HOCKING D, 1994, SCARM FRUIT FLY WORK HUTCHINSON MF, 1989, 895 CSIRO DIV WAT RE, P95 HUTCHINSON MF, 1991, HYDROL PROCESS, V5, P45 NORTON GA, 1976, AGRO-ECOSYSTEMS, V3, P27 PARRY ML, 1998, CLIMATE IMPACT ADAPT PARSONS PA, 1989, AMBIO, V18, P322 SOUTHWOOD TRE, 1973, INSECTS STUDIES POPU, P168 SUTHERST RW, 1995, INSECTS CHANGING ENV SUTHERST RW, 1996, GREENHOUSE COPING CL, P281 SUTHERST RW, 1998, INT J PARASITOL, V28, P935 SUTHERST RW, 1998, PARASITOL TODAY, V14, P297 VANVELSEN RJ, 1987, REV FRUIT FLY CAMPAI VICKERS RA, 1994, NATL STRATEGY FRUIT WORTHINGTON M, 1995, OUTLOOK, V95, P253 YONOW T, 1998, AUST J AGR RES, V49, P935 NR 25 TC 3 J9 AUST J AGR RES BP 467 EP 480 PY 2000 VL 51 IS 4 GA 309QP UT ISI:000086780800006 ER PT J AU Ford, JD Smit, B TI A framework for assessing the vulnerability of communities in the Canadian arctic to risks associated with climate change SO ARCTIC LA English DT Article C1 Univ Guelph, Dept Geog, Guelph, ON N1G 2W1, Canada. RP Ford, JD, Univ Guelph, Dept Geog, Guelph, ON N1G 2W1, Canada. AB Adaptation to climate change is recognized as an important policy issue by international bodies such as the United Nations and by various national governments. Initiatives to identify adaptation needs and to improve adaptive capacity increasingly start with an assessment of the vulnerability of the system of interest, in terms of who and what are vulnerable, to what stresses, in what way, and what capacity exists to adapt to changing risks. Notwithstanding the scholarship on climate change itself, there are few studies on the nature of Arctic communities' vulnerability to climate-change risks. We review existing literature on implications of climate change for Arctic communities, develop a conceptual model of vulnerability, and present an analytical approach to assessing climate hazards and coping strategies in Arctic communities. Vulnerability is conceptualized as a function of exposure to climatic stresses and the adaptive capacity to cope with these stresses. The analytical framework employs place-specific case studies involving community residents and integrates information from multiple sources, both to document current exposures and adaptations and to characterize future exposures and adaptive capacity. 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NASA, Ames Res Ctr, Moffett Field, CA 94035 USA. Univ Tokyo, Grad Sch Agr & Life Sci, Bunkyo Ku, Tokyo 113, Japan. RP Milesi, C, Univ Montana, Dept Ecosyst & Conservat Sci, Numer Terradynam Simulat Grp, Missoula, MT 59812 USA. AB Human domination of ecosystems has been pervasive over the last century, with nearly half of Earth's surface transformed by human actions. it is widely accepted that humans appropriate up to 50% of global net primary production (NPP), the energy base of all the trophic levels on the land surface. Yet, despite the important role of vegetation productivity for defining Earth habitability, the covariation of NPP and human population distribution has not been analyzed in depth. We used recently available satellite-based NPP estimates, along with gridded population at 0.5 degrees resolution, first, to identify the global distribution of human population with reference to average NPP and to the various climatic constraints (temperature, water and cloud cover) that limit NPP, second, to analyze recent trends in global NPP in relation to population trends, and third, to identify populations that are vulnerable to changes in NPP due to interannual variability in climate. Our results indicate that over half of the global human population is presently living in areas with above the average NPP of 490 g C m(-2) year(-1). By 1998, nearly 56% of global population lived in regions where water availability strongly influences NPP. Per capita NPP declined over much of Africa between 1982 and 1998, in spite of the estimated increases in NPP over the same period. On average, NPP over 40% of the total vegetated land surface has shown significant correlations with ENSO-induced climate variability affecting over 2.8 billion people. (c) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 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P, 1993, RISK ANAL, V13, P675 SLOVIC P, 2001, PERCEPTION RISK STARR C, 1969, SCIENCE, V165, P1232 STOFFLE R, 2003, IN PRESS HUMAN ORG TENNER E, 1996, WHY THINGS BITE BACK TIBI B, 2001, ISLAM CULTURE POLITI TVERSKY A, 1974, SCIENCE, V185, P1124 VISCUSI WK, 1993, J POLIT ECON, V101, P161 VISCUSI WK, 1998, RATIONAL RISK POLICY VISCUSI WK, 2000, J LEGAL STUD 2, V29, P843 VOGEL D, IN PRESS BRIT J POLI VOGEL D, 1995, TRADING UP CONSUMER VOGEL D, 1998, BARRIERS BENEFITS RE WEBER S, 2000, 140 BRIE WESTLEY F, 1995, BARRIERS BRIDGES REN, P391 WESTLEY F, 2002, PANARCHY UNDERSTANDI, P333 WIENER JB, 2002, J RISK RES, V5, P317 WYNNE B, 1992, SOCIAL THEORIES RISK, P275 WYNNE B, 1996, RISK ENV MODERNITY N, P44 YERGIN D, 1998, COMMANDING HEIGHTS YUNUS M, 1999, BANKER POOR MICROLEN ZIJDERVELD A, 1992, ABSTRACT SOC CULTURA NR 123 TC 0 J9 J RISK RES BP 343 EP + PY 2003 PD JUL VL 6 IS 4-6 GA 709GL UT ISI:000184617400003 ER PT J AU Wilhite, DA TI Drought planning and risk assessment: Status and future directions SO ANNALS OF ARID ZONE LA English DT Article C1 Univ Nebraska, Natl Drought Mitigat Ctr, Lincoln, NE 68583 USA. RP Wilhite, DA, Univ Nebraska, Natl Drought Mitigat Ctr, Lincoln, NE 68583 USA. AB Although drought is a normal, recurring feature of climate, little progress has been made in drought management in most parts of the world. The progress in drought planning that has been achieved in some countries and regions can be useful for other drought-prone regions. In this paper, a drought planning process, originally developed in 1991 for state-level government in the United States, is suggested as a model for governments at various levels to follow in the development of a drought plan. The process, which emphasizes risk management rather than crisis management, is based on the three primary components of a drought plan: monitoring and early warning; risk and impact assessment; and mitigation and response. The steps in the process are generic and easily adaptable to all drought-prone regions. CR *DEP CONST DEV, 1999, WHIT PAP DIS MAN *FEMA, 1995, NAT MIT STRAT *OFF FOR DIS ASS, 1990, ANN REP *SADCC, 1992, FOOD SEC B *UN, 1986, COUNTRIES STRICKEN D *UNDP UNSO, 2000, REP STAT DROUGHT PRE, V1 BENSON C, 1998, 402 WORLD BANK BENSON C, 2000, DROUGHT GLOBAL ASSES, V1, P287 BLAIKIE PM, 1994, RISK NATURAL HAZARDS, V1, P1 BRUINS HJ, 1998, ARID FRONTIER INTERA, P97 CAROLWICZ M, 1996, EOS, V77, P149 GLANTZ MH, 1987, DROUGHT HUNGER AFRIC HAGMAN G, 1984, PREVENTION BETTER CU KECK A, 1994, WATER SUPPLY VARIABI KNUTSON C, 1998, REDUCE DROUGHT RISK SUBBIAH AR, 1993, DROUGHT ASSESSMENT M, P157 WILHELMI OV, 1999, THESIS U NEBRASKA LI WILHITE DA, 1985, WATER INT, V10, P111 WILHITE DA, 1991, WATER RESOUR BULL, V27, P29 WILHITE DA, 1992, ENCY EARTH SYSTEM SC, V2, P81 WILHITE DA, 1992, PREPARING DROUGHT GU WILHITE DA, 1996, NAT HAZARDS, V13, P229 WILHITE DA, 1997, J AM WATER RESOUR AS, V33, P961 WILHITE DA, 1999, METHODOLOGY DROUGHT WILHITE DA, 2000, DROUGHT GLOBAL ASSES, V1 WILHITE DA, 2000, DROUGHT GLOBAL ASSES, V1, P245 WILHITE DA, 2000, DROUGHT GLOBAL ASSES, V2 WILHITE DA, 2000, DROUGHT GLOBAL ASSES, V2, P89 NR 28 TC 0 J9 ANN ARID ZONE BP 211 EP 230 PY 2000 PD SEP VL 39 IS 3 GA 484WH UT ISI:000171712200001 ER PT J AU Hadorn, GH Bradley, D Pohl, C Rist, S Wiesmann, U TI Implications of transdisciplinarity for sustainability research SO ECOLOGICAL ECONOMICS LA English DT Article C1 ETH, Dept Environm Sci, CH-8092 Zurich, Switzerland. Univ Konstanz, Dept Philosophy, D-7750 Constance, Germany. Univ Oxford, Dept Zool, Oxford OX1 2JD, England. Univ London London Sch Hyg & Trop Med, Dept Infect & Trop Dis, London WC1E 7HT, England. Swiss Acad Sci, Td Net, CH-3007 Bern, Switzerland. Univ Bern, CDE, CH-3008 Bern, Switzerland. RP Hadorn, GH, ETH, Dept Environm Sci, CH-8092 Zurich, Switzerland. AB in ecological economics the terms sustainable development and transdisciplinarity are closely related. It is shown that this close relation is due to the fact that research for sustainable development has to be issue oriented and reflect the diversity, complexity and dynamics of the processes involved as well as their variability between specific problem situations. Furthermore, the knowledge of people involved and their needs and interests at stake have to be taken into account. There are three basic and interrelated questions about issues to be addressed in sustainability research: (1) In which way do processes constitute a problem field and where are the needs for change? (2) What are more sustainable practices? (3) How can existing practices be transformed? To treat them properly, transdisciplinary research is needed. The emergence of transdisciplinary research in the North and the South is described. By distinguishing analytically among basic, applied and transdisciplinary research the challenges that have to be tackled in transdisciplinary projects are analyzed. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 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RP Foster, GD, Natl Def Univ, Ind Coll Armed Forces, Washington, DC 20319 USA. AB Environmental security-the intersection of environmental conditions and security affairs-is a subject that increasingly demands the attention of those concerned with relations between the armed forces and society. It is at the heart of new, more comprehensive post-Cold War conceptions of security that could fundamentally redefine the essence of military establishments. It is also central to societal well-being and the attendant public trust and confidence in the institutions of government that ultimately determine the efficacy of the state. There is growing acceptance today of the link between the environment and security. However, two issues continue to divide scholars and practitioners alike and thereby undermine the legitimacy of the subject: the definition of the phrase and the causal relationship between the environment and security. Definitionally, the very nature of the subject forces a new degree of attention to the linkage between individual (human) security and national, regional, and global security. On the other hand, the suggestion that conflict may be caused-or at least prefigured-by environmental conditions lies at the heart of most disagreements on the subject and thus on its integral importance to the field of security affairs. What seems clear is that environmental conditions must be viewed in conjunction with associated economic and political factors. It may turn out that there is a masking phenomenon at work by which ostensibly political and economic precipitants of violence and unrest actually mask underlying environmental sources of discontent. By the same token, increasing attention must be given to autocatalytic events (such as natural disasters) that feed and feed off environmental degradation. Recognizing the existence and prevalence of these sorts of conditions and relationships is a challenge that will test the intellectual mettle of analysts and policymakers in the world that lies before us. 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RP Liu, SK, Syst Res Inst, 3706 Ocean Hill Way, Malibu, CA 90265 USA. AB Coastal numerical models have been used successfully for many marine analyses as well as for practical engineering applications. When a model is adjusted and verified for a particular coastal region, it may also be used for predicting potential impact due to sea level rise for that region. Applications include coastal flood risk analysis, alteration of long-term coastal sediment transport direction, and possible impact on the ecosystem due to changes in the coastal circulation pattern induced by the rise of mean sea level. This paper presents some examples for such applications including storm surge and near-shore tidal residual circulation patterns due to sea level rise. The paper presents a brief background discussion on the coastal hydrodynamic process A three-dimensional numerical model of the China Sea is used as an example for the analyses. Results from the numerical experiment indicate sea level rise may induce long-term changes in the near-shove tidal circulation patterns resulted from the alteration of residual currents, Rise in sea level would also cause more areas to he flooded due to storm surge. Existing sea walls and dikes designed for 100 year storm would be exposed to higher risks in the face of rising mean sea level. Modeling results would provide coastal designers and managers useful tools for developing vulnerability assessments and adaptation strategies. As an example the paper presents some coastal flood risk analyses in which numerical modeling is combined with statistical typhoon landfall data over the China Sea coast. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. CR LIU SK, 1978, ADV HYDROSCIENCES LIU SK, 1988, 3 DIMENSIONAL MODEL LIU SK, 1991, 5389DOCNOAA RAND LIU SK, 1993, 3 DIMENSIONAL MODELI LIU SK, 1995, 843001 MIN COMM TRAN LIU SK, 1995, 84ECA371005 MIN EC A NR 6 TC 0 J9 OCEAN COAST MANAGE BP 85 EP 94 PY 1997 VL 37 IS 1 GA ZM705 UT ISI:000073567600007 ER PT J AU WARRICK, RA RIEBSAME, WE TI SOCIETAL RESPONSE TO CO-2-INDUCED CLIMATE CHANGE - OPPORTUNITIES FOR RESEARCH SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Review C1 CLARK UNIV,CTR TECHNOL ENVIRONM & DEV,CLIMATE & SOC RES GRP,WORCESTER,MA 01610. RP WARRICK, RA, NATL CTR ATMOSPHER RES,BOULDER,CO 80307. 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PERSPEC WHITE GF, 1961, NAT RESOUR J, V1, P23 WHITE GF, 1966, ENV QUALITY GROWING WHITE GF, 1969, STRATEGIES AM WATER WHITE GF, 1973, DIRECTIONS GEOGRAPHY WHITE GF, 1974, NATURAL HAZARDS LOCA WHITE GF, 1975, ASSESSMENT RES NATUR, V1, P1 WHYTE I, 1981, CONSEQUENCES CLIMATI, P17 WISNER B, 1978, THESIS CLARK U WORSTER D, 1979, DUST BOWL SO GREAT P WRIGHT JD, 1979, CLEANUP LONG RANGE E YEVJEVICH V, 1978, DROUGHT RES NEEDS NR 146 TC 10 J9 CLIMATIC CHANGE BP 387 EP 428 PY 1981 VL 3 IS 4 GA MW757 UT ISI:A1981MW75700003 ER PT J AU Gay, C Estrada, F Conde, C Eakin, H Villers, L TI Potential impacts of climate change on agriculture: A case of study of coffee production in Veracruz, Mexico SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 UNAM, Ctr Ciencias Atmosfera, Mexico City 04510, DF, Mexico. RP Gay, C, UNAM, Ctr Ciencias Atmosfera, Circuito Exterior, Mexico City 04510, DF, Mexico. AB This paper explores the relation between coffee production and climatic and economic variables in Veracruz in order to estimate the potential impacts of climate change. For this purpose, an econometric model is developed in terms of those variables. The model is validated by means of statistical analysis, and then used to project coffee production under different climatic conditions. Climate change scenarios are produced considering that the observed trends of climate variables will continue to prevail until the year 2020. An approach for constructing simple probability scenarios for future climate variability is presented and used to assess possible impacts of climate change beyond what is expected from changes in mean values. The model shows that temperature is the most relevant climatic factor for coffee production, since production responds significantly to seasonal temperature patterns. The results for the projected climate change conditions for year 2020 indicate that coffee production might not be economically viable for producers, since the model indicates a reduction of 34% of the current production. Although different economic variables (the state and international coffee prices, a producer price index for raw materials for coffee benefit, the national and the USA coffee stocks) were considered as potentially relevant, our model suggests that the state real minimum wage could be regarded as the most important economic variable. Real minimum wage is interpreted here as a proxy for the price of labor employed for coffee production. This activity in Mexico is very labor intensive representing up to 80% of coffee production costs. As expected, increments in the price of such an important production factor increase production costs and have strong negative effects on production. Different assumptions on how real minimum wage could evolve for the year 2020 are considered for developing future production scenarios. CR RED SOCIAL STUDIES N *AS NAT, 2000, AGR ORG TROP SUBTR C *ASERCA, 2002, CAF MEX REV CLAR AGR *CONS MEX CAF SECR, 1996, GAN DES RUR *CONS MEX CAF SECR, 2001, GAN DES RUR *GOB EST VER, 2001, TERC INF GOB MIG AL *IPCC, 2001, CONTR WORK GROUP 2 3, P1032 *TECHNOSERVE, 2003, DEV SOL CHALL COFF I AGGARWAL PK, 2005, IMPACT CLIMATE CHANG AVILA J, 2001, PROBLEMAS DESARROLLO, V32, P189 BARTRA A, 1999, JORNADA CAMPO, P1 BRAVO JL, 2005, UNPUB COMPORTAMIENTO CASTELLANOS E, 2003, COFFEE CRISIS MEXICO, P20 CASTILLO G, 1997, 8 INIFAP DIV AGR, P90 CHANG CC, 2002, AGR ECON, V27, P51 CONDE C, 1997, CLIMATE RES, V9, P17 CONDE C, 1999, IMPACTOS EL NINO MEX, P103 CONDE C, 2003, CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPT CONDE C, 2003, REUN OP M HUM DIM GL CONDE C, 2003, THESIS UNAM CONDE C, 2005, AIACC SYNTHESIS VULN DOUGLAS A, 1993, MEXICAN TEMPERATURE, P13 EAKIN H, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P19 EAKIN H, 2003, WORKSH REP INT ASS S GAY C, 1995, MEMORIAS PRIMER TALL GAY C, 1996, MEMORIAS SEGUNDO TAL GAY C, 2000, MEXICO UNA VISION HA GAY C, 2002, INTEGRATED ASSESSMEN GUJARATI D, 2003, BASIC ECONOMETRICS KAUFMANN RK, 1997, AM J AGR ECON, V79, P178 LIVERMAN DM, 1991, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V1, P351 MAGANA AJ, 1999, AM METE SOC, V12, P1577 MAGANA V, 1997, CLIMATE RES, V9, P107 MAGANA V, 1999, IMPACTOS EL NINO MEX, P228 MENDOZA VM, 1997, CLIM RES, P139 MORALES T, 1999, 11 C APPL MET AM MET, P262 NOLASCO M, 1985, CAFE SOC MEXICO, P455 OBRIEN KL, 2000, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V10, P221 PEREZ M, 2005, JORNADA, P6 SAHARREA FA, 2003, CAFE MEXICO SMIT B, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 VILLERSRUIZ L, 1997, CLIMATE RES, V9, P87 NR 42 TC 0 J9 CLIMATIC CHANGE BP 259 EP 288 PY 2006 PD DEC VL 79 IS 3-4 GA 110DX UT ISI:000242359600007 ER PT J AU BUTZER, KW TI CULTURAL-ADAPTATION - A METHOD FOR DIACHRONIC STUDY OF HUMAN ECOSYSTEMS SO GEOGRAPHISCHE ZEITSCHRIFT LA German DT Article C1 UNIV CHICAGO,DEPT GEOG,CHICAGO,IL 60637. 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UN Environm Program, Reg Seas Programme, Nairobi, Kenya. WWF S Pacific, Boroko, Papua N Guinea. WWF Fiji, Suva, Fiji. Coastal Management Program, Pago Pago, AS 96799 USA. Environm Protect Author, Majuro 96960, MH, Marshall Island. Wildlife Conserva Soc, Goroka, Papua N Guinea. Dept Econ Afffairs, Palikir 96941, FM, Micronesia. Primary Resources Consulting Co, Port Vila, Vanuatu. Palau Conservat Soc, Koror 96940, PW, Palau. Minist Environm Land & Agr Dev, Bikenibeu, Tarawa, Kiribati. Dept Environm, Nukualofa, Tonga. Commonwealth No Mariana Isl Coastal Resources Man, Saipan, CM 96950 USA. RP Gilman, EL, Sch Geog & Environm Studies, Locked Bag 1-376, Launceston, Tas 7250, Australia. AB Stresses associated with effects of climate change, including rise in relative mean sea level, present one set of threats to mangroves. Coastal development and ecosystems in the Pacific Islands region are particularly vulnerable to climate change effects. We investigated the capacity of Pacific Island countries and territories to assess mangrove vulnerability to the effects of climate change, and their capacity to adapt to mangrove responses to these forces. Technical and institutional capacity-building priorities include: (1) strengthening management frameworks to conduct site-specific assessment of mangrove vulnerability and incorporate resulting information into land-use plans to prepare for any landward mangrove migration and offsetting anticipated losses; (2) reducing and eliminating stresses on and rehabilitating mangroves, in part, to increase mangrove resilience to climate change effects; and (3) augmenting abilities to establish mangrove baselines, and monitor gradual changes using standardized techniques through a regional network to distinguish local and climate change effects on mangroves. Other priorities are to: (4) assess how mangrove margins have changed over recent decades; (5) determine projections of trends in mean relative sea level and trends in the frequency and elevation of extreme high water events; (6) measure trends in changes in elevations of mangrove surfaces; and (7) incorporate this information into land-use planning processes. Also in (8) some locations require spatial imagery showing topography and locations of mangroves and coastal development. Land-use planners can use information from assessments predicting shoreline responses to projected sea level rise and other climate change effects to reduce risks to coastal development, human safety, and coastal ecosystems. This advanced planning enables coastal managers to minimize social disruption and cost, minimize losses of valued coastal ecosystems, and maximize available options. CR 1999, 1 NAT COMM UN FRAM C 1999, VAN NAT COMM C PART *FED STAT MICR, 1997, 1997 CLIM CHANG NAT *GOV SAM, 1999, FIRST NAT COMM REP U *GOV TUV, 1999, TUV IN NAT COMM UN F *KING TONG, 2005, IN NAT COMM RESP COM *KIR GOV, 1999, INT COMM C *PAP NEW GUIN GOV, 2000, INT NAT COMM UN FRAM *RAM SEC, 2001, WETL VAL FUNCT CLIM *RAMS SEC, 1999, 193 COP7 DOC *REP MARSH ISL ENV, 2000, INT COMM UN FRAM *REP PAP OFF ENV R, 2002, 1 COMM UN FRAM C CLI *SEC PAC REG ENV P, 2003, CAP BUILD DEV AD MEA *SO PAC SEA LEV CL, 2001, PREC MON CONT GLOB P *SOL ISL GOV, 2004, IN NAT COMM UN FRAM *SOPAC, 2003, FUT DIR ENV VULN IND *SPREP, 1999, ACT STRAT NAT CONS P *SPREP, 1999, REG WETL ACT PLAN PA *SPREP, 2000, ADAPTING CLIMATE CHA ALLEN JA, 1998, GLOBAL ECOL BIOGEOGR, V7, P61 ALLENG GP, 1998, J COASTAL RES, V14, P951 CAHOON DR, 2002, J SEDIMENT RES, V72, P734 CHURCH J, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, P693 CHURCH J, 2004, COAST COAST 04 C P, P16 CHURCH JA, 2004, J CLIMATE, V17, P2609 DELAUNE RD, 1978, NATURE, V275, P532 DIXON JA, 1990, EC PROTECTED AREAS ELLISON J, 1999, MARINE COASTAL BIODI, V2, P3 ELLISON J, 2001, SEA LEVEL CHANGES TH, P289 ELLISON J, 2004, VULNERABILITY FIJIS ELLISON JC, 1991, J COASTAL RES, V7, P151 ELLISON JC, 1993, ESTUAR COAST SHELF S, V37, P75 ELLISON JC, 2000, CLIMATE CHANGE S PAC, P289 FLETCHER CH, 1997, J COASTAL RES, V13, P209 GILMAN E, IN PRESS ENV MONIT A GILMAN E, 2002, OCEAN COAST MANAGE, V45, P377 GILMAN E, 2004, UNESCO WORLD HER CTR GILMAN E, 2005, TRENDS FREQUENCY ELE GILMAN EL, 1998, COAST MANAGE, V26, P253 GILMAN EL, 1999, INT PERSPECTIVE WETL, P3 HOLGATE SJ, 2004, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V31 HOUGHTON J, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 JOHANNES RE, 1982, AMBIO, V11, P258 KOMAR P, 1998, BEACH PROCESSES SEDI KOMAR PD, 1991, J COASTAL RES, V7, P895 KRAUSS KW, 2003, ESTUAR COAST SHELF S, V54, P251 LEE WG, 1983, NEW ZEAL J BOT, V21, P231 LEWIS RR, 1992, P NATL WETL S PALM B, P101 LEWIS RR, 2005, ECOL ENG, V24, P403 LYNCH JC, 1989, ESTUARIES, V12, P284 MCLEAN RF, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, P343 MIMURA N, 1998, J COASTAL RES, V14, P37 MULLANE R, 1997, BEACH MANAGEMENT PLA NURSE L, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, P843 PHILLIPS B, 2000, P APMM SURVAS LOICZ ROGERS K, 2005, ESTUARIES, V28, P551 SAINTILAN N, 2001, WETLANDS ECOLOGY MAN, V9, P409 SMITH CR, 2005, RECOLONIZATION SUCCE SNEDAKER SC, 1993, CLIMATIC CHANGE INTR, P282 SOLOMON S, 1997, P 1997 CAN COAST C C SPALDING MD, 1997, WOLD MANGROVE ATLAS TITUS JG, 1991, ENVIRON MANAGE, V15, P39 WHITE A, 1994, COLLABORATIVE COMMUN WOODROFFE CD, 1995, EARTH SURF PROCESSES, V20, P65 WOODWORTH PL, 2002, INT J CLIMATOL, V22, P697 WOODWORTH PL, 2004, J CLIMATE, V17, P1190 YUNCKER TG, 1943, B P BISHOP MUSEUM B, V178, P1 NR 67 TC 0 J9 CLIMATE RES BP 161 EP 176 PY 2006 PD OCT 26 VL 32 IS 3 GA 125CQ UT ISI:000243419500001 ER PT J AU Newburn, D Reed, S Berck, P Merenlender, A TI Economics and land-use change in prioritizing private land conservation SO CONSERVATION BIOLOGY LA English DT Article C1 Univ Calif Berkeley, Dept Agr & Resource Econ, Berkeley, CA 94720 USA. Univ Calif Berkeley, Dept Environm Sci Policy & Management, Berkeley, CA 94720 USA. RP Newburn, D, Univ Calif Berkeley, Dept Agr & Resource Econ, 207 Giannini Hall, Berkeley, CA 94720 USA. AB Incentive-based strategies such as conservation easements and short-term management agreements are popular tools for conserving biodiversity on private lands. Billions of dollars are spent by government and private conservation organizations to support land conservation. Although much of conservation biology focuses on reserve design, these methods are often ineffective at optimizing the protection of biological benefits for conservation programs. Our review of the recent literature on protected-area planning identifies some of the reasons why. We analyzed the site-selection process according to three important components. biological benefits, land costs, and likelihood of land-use change. We compared our benefit-loss-cost targeting approach with more conventional strategies that omit or inadequately address either land costs or likelihood of land-use change. Our proposed strategy aims to minimize the; expected loss in biological benefit due to future land-use conversion while considering the full or partial costs of land acquisition.. The implicit positive correlation between the likelihood of land-use conversion and cost of land protection means high-vulnerability sites with suitable land quality are typically more expensive than low-vulnerability sites with poor land quality. Therefore, land-use change and land costs need to be addressed jointly to improve spatial targeting strategies for land conservation, This approach can be extended effectively to land trusts and other institutions implementing conservation programs. 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WHO, CH-1211 Geneva, Switzerland. RP Haines, A, London Sch Hyg & Trop Med, Keppel St, London WC1E 7HT, England. AB It is now widely accepted that climate change is occurring as a result of the accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere arising from the combustion of fossil fuels. Climate change may affect health through a range of pathways, for example as a result of increased frequency and intensity of heat waves, reduction in cold related deaths, increased floods and droughts, changes in the distribution of vector-borne diseases and effects on the risk of disasters and malnutrition. The overall balance of effects on health is likely to be negative and populations in low-income countries are likely to be particularly vulnerable to the adverse effects. The experience of the 2003 heat wave in Europe shows that high-income countries may also be adversely affected. Adaptation to climate change requires public health strategies and improved surveillance. Mitigation of climate change by reducing the use of fossil fuels and increasing a number of uses of the renewable energy technologies should improve health in the near-term by reducing exposure to air pollution. (c) 2006 The Royal Institute of Public Health. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 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Univ Oslo, CICERO Ctr Int Climate & Environm Res, NO-0317 Oslo, Norway. Univ E Anglia, Sch Dev Studies, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. Univ E Anglia, Climat Res Unit, Sch Environm Sci, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. RP Eriksen, SH, Univ Oslo, Dept Sociol & Human Geog, POB 1096 Blindern, NO-0317 Oslo, Norway. AB We investigate how smallholder farmers at two sites in Kenya and Tanzania cope with climate stress and how constraints and opportunities shape variations in coping strategies between households and over time during a drought. On the basis of this analysis, we draw out implications for adaptation and adaptive policy. We find that households where an individual was able to specialize in one favoured activity, such as employment or charcoal burning, in the context of overall diversification by the household, were often less vulnerable than households where each individual is engaged in many activities at low intensity. Many households had limited access to the favoured coping options due to a lack of skill, labour and/or capital. This lack of access was compounded by social relations that led to exclusion of certain groups, especially women, from carrying out favoured activities with sufficient intensity. These households instead carried out a mulitude of less favoured and frequently complementary activities, such as collecting indigenous fruit. While characterized by suitability to seasonal environmental variations and low demands on time and cash investments, these strategies often yielded marginal returns. Both the marginalization of local niche products and the commercialization of forest resources exemplify processes leading to differential vulnerability. We suggest that vulnerability can usefully be viewed in terms of the interaction of such processes, following the concept of locality. We argue that coping is a distinct component of vulnerability and that understanding the dynamism of coping and vulnerability is critical to developing adaptation measures that support people as active agents. 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RP Pielke, RA, Colorado State Univ, Dept Atmospher Sci, Ft Collins, CO 80523 USA. AB This essay discusses several issues that have been overlooked in the U.S. National and IPCC assessments. These include the effect on the climate system of anthropogenic land-use change, and the biological influence of enhanced concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide. Evidence is presented to demonstrate the important role of these human disturbances to the earth's climate. Several hypotheses are proposed to test which are based on our research results. These include whether human-caused landscape change has an effect at all time scales on local, regional, and global climate that is at least as important as currently expected to be caused by the radiative effect of the anthropogenic doubling of the effective greenhouse gas concentrations. In addition, since landscape (and other atmosphere-surface) interactions involve complex, nonlinear feedbacks, accurate prediction of climate variables beyond seasonal time scales may not be possible. As an alternate paradigm, a vulnerability assessment approach is proposed in which the entire spectrum of environmental stresses are evaluated in order to determine the greatest threats to specific resources. CR 1999, NEWSLETTER CSIRO *U E ANGL CLIM RES, 1997, CLIM IMP LINK AVISSAR R, 1995, REV GEOPHYS, V33, P1005 CHASE TN, 1996, J GEOPHYS RES-ATMOS, V101, P7393 CHASE TN, 2000, CLIM DYNAM, V16, P93 CLAUSSEN M, 2001, UNPUB VEGETATION WAT COTTON WR, 1995, HUMAN IMPACTS WEATHE, P288 EASTMAN JL, 2001, IN PRESS GLOBAL CHAN EUGSTER W, 2000, GLOB CHANGE BIOL S1, V6, P84 GRASSO L, 1996, THESIS COLO STATE, P151 GUPTA V, 2000, EOS, V81, P484 HARVEY LDD, 2000, GLOBAL WARMING HARD, P336 KLEIN GK, 2001, IN PRESS GLOBAL BIOG LANDSEA CW, 2000, B AM METEOROL SOC, V81, P2107 LU L, 1999, 687 COL STAT U DEP A, P134 LU LX, 2001, J CLIMATE, V14, P900 MOORE B, 2000, IGBP NEWSLETTER, V41, P1 PETSCHELHELD G, 1999, ENVIRON MODEL ASSESS, V4, P295 PIELKE RA, 1997, ECOL APPL, V7, P3 PIELKE RA, 1998, B AM METEOROL SOC, V79, P2743 PIELKE RA, 1998, GLOB CHANGE BIOL, V4, P461 PIELKE RA, 1998, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V8, P159 PIELKE RA, 1999, IGBP GLOBAL CHANGE N, V39, P21 PIELKE RA, 1999, INTEGRATING HYDROLOG, P105 PIELKE RA, 1999, J GEOPHYS RES-ATMOS, V104, P19463 PIELKE RA, 1999, MON WEATHER REV, V127, P1663 PIELKE RA, 2001, NATURE, V410, P151 PIELKE RA, 2001, REV GEOPHYS, V39, P151 PITMAN A, 1999, IGBP GLOBAL CHANGE N, V39, P4 RODHE H, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V44, P409 SAREWITZ D, 2000, ATLANTIC MONTHLY, V286, P55 SAREWITZ D, 2000, PREDICTION DECISION, P400 SCHELLNHUBER HJ, 1997, GAIA, V6, P19 SHAW BL, 1997, MON WEATHER REV, V125, P1489 VITOUSEK PM, 1997, SCIENCE, V277, P494 ZIEGLER CL, 1997, MON WEATHER REV, V125, P1001 NR 36 TC 7 J9 CLIMATIC CHANGE BP 1 EP 11 PY 2002 PD JAN VL 52 IS 1-2 GA 497HA UT ISI:000172448300001 ER PT J AU Morss, RE Wilhelmi, OV Downton, MW Gruntfest, E TI Flood risk, uncertainty, and scientific information for decision making - Lessons from an interdisciplinary project SO BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY LA English DT Article C1 Natl Ctr Atmospher Res, MMM, ESIG, Boulder, CO 80307 USA. Univ Colorado, Colorado Springs, CO 80907 USA. RP Morss, RE, Natl Ctr Atmospher Res, MMM, ESIG, POB 3000, Boulder, CO 80307 USA. AB The magnitude of flood damage in the United States, combined with the uncertainty in current estimates of flood risk, suggest that society could benefit from improved scientific information about flood risk. To help address this perceived need, a group of researchers initiated an interdisciplinary study of climate variability, scientific uncertainty, and hydrometeorological information for flood-risk decision making, focused on Colorado's Rocky Mountain Front Range urban corridor. We began by investigating scientific research directions that were likely to benefit flood-risk estimation and management, through consultation with climatologists, hydrologists, engineers, and planners. In doing so, we identified several challenges involved in generating new scientific information to aid flood management in the presence of significant scientific and societal uncertainty. This essay presents lessons learned from this study, along with our observations on the complex interactions among scientific information, uncertainty, and societal decision making. It closes by proposing a modification to the "end to end" approach to conducting societally relevant scientific research. Although we illustrate points using examples from flood management, the concepts may be applicable to other arenas, such as global climate change. CR *NOAA, 2003, NEW PRIOR 21 CENT NO *NRC, 2004, WEATH MEETS ROAD RES *NWS, 2005, FLOOD FAT HYDR INF C ALLEN MR, 2000, NATURE, V407, P617 BROWN MD, 2005, BEING FLOODSMART MEA BURBY RJ, 2001, ENV HAZARDS, V3, P111 BYERLY R, 1995, SCIENCE, V269, P1531 CALLAHAN B, 1999, POLICY SCI, V32, P269 CHANGNON SA, 1998, B AM METEOROL SOC, V79, P2550 DESSAI S, 2003, DOES CLIMATE POLICY DOWNTON MW, 2005, NAT HAZARDS REV, V6, P13 FOTHERGILL A, 2000, NAT HAZARDS REV, V1, P91 FUNTOWICZ SO, 1993, FUTURES, V25, P739 GRUNTFEST E, 2001, COPING FLASH FLOODS HUNT J, 1999, MINERVA, V37, P141 JASANOFF S, 1998, HUMAN CHOICE CLIMATE, P1 KARL TR, 1993, J CLIMATE, V6, P1481 LARSON L, 2001, NAT HAZARDS REV, V2, P167 LEMPERT RJ, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P387 LIVERMAN DM, 2002, CLIMATE RES, V21, P199 MAY PT, 2004, WEATHER FORECAST, V19, P115 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 MEO M, 2002, J AM WATER RESOUR AS, V38, P541 MONTZ BE, 2002, ENV HAZARDS, V4, P15 MOSER S, 1998, E9816 ENRP OVERPECK JT, 2002, 3 S ENV APPL ORL FL OVERPECK JT, 2002, NOAA CLIM SERV WORKS PAGANO TC, 2002, CLIMATE RES, V21, P259 PIELKE R, 2003, ISSUES SCI TECHNOL, V19, P27 PIELKE RA, 1997, B AM METEOROL SOC, V78, P255 PIELKE RA, 2000, J CLIMATE, V13, P3625 PULWARTY RS, 1997, B AM METEOROL SOC, V78, P381 RAY AJ, 2003, S IMP WAT VAR BEN CH SAREWITZ D, 2000, ATLANTIC MONTHLY, V286, P55 SAREWITZ D, 2000, PREDICTION SCI DECIS SCHNEIDER SH, 2001, NATURE, V411, P17 WEBSTER M, 2003, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V61, P295 WHITE GF, 2001, ENV HAZARDS, V3, P81 NR 38 TC 0 J9 BULL AMER METEOROL SOC BP 1593 EP + PY 2005 PD NOV VL 86 IS 11 GA 987LC UT ISI:000233518400020 ER PT J AU Puszkin-Chevlin, A Hernandez, D Murley, J TI Land use planning and its potential to reduce hazard vulnerability: Current practices and future possibilities SO MARINE TECHNOLOGY SOCIETY JOURNAL LA English DT Article C1 Florida Atlantic Univ, Ctr Urban & Environm Solut, Boca Raton, FL 33431 USA. RP Puszkin-Chevlin, A, Florida Atlantic Univ, Ctr Urban & Environm Solut, Boca Raton, FL 33431 USA. AB The concentration of people and infrastructure along the nation's coastline has increased our vulnerability to severe coastal storms and other natural hazards, as evidenced by the substantial social, economic and environmental impacts,of recent hurricanes. Competing policy objectives and stakeholder interests pose,challenges to planners' and public officials' attempts to increase resilience using land development-based approaches. This paper describes theses issues for researchers outside the urban and regional planning discipline. It presents the typical approaches to hazard mitigation and the primary land-use tools used to manage coastal development. It strives to inspire interdisciplinary visioning of sustainable coastal development patterns needed to advance resiliency. CR *CAL STAT U MONT B, COAST EC DAT *CIT INS CORP, 2006, TOT POL HELD CIT INS *FEMA, 2006, FEMA FLOOD INS COV T *FEMA, 2006, MAJ DECL DIS *HJ HEINZ CTR SCI, 2000, EV ER HAZ SUMM *HJ HEINZ CTR SCI, 2000, HIDD COSTS COAST HAZ *HJ HEINZ CTR SCI, 2002, HUM LINKS COAST DIS *MUN RE, 2006, NETCATSERVICE *OR SEAGR, 1994, IMPR NAT HAZ MAN OR BURBY R, 1998, COOPERATING NATURE C BURBY RJ, 1999, J AM PLANN ASSOC, V65, P247 CHAPIN T, 2006, IN PRESS ASS COLL SC COASE RH, 1937, ECONOMICA, V4, P386 COLGAN CS, 2004, CHANGING OCEAN COAST CUTTER SL, 2000, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V90, P713 DALTON LC, 1994, J AM PLANN ASSOC, V60, P444 DEAN C, 1999, TIDE BATTLE AM BEACH DEYLE RE, 1994, POLICY STUD J, V22, P457 DEYLE RE, 1998, J AM PLANN ASSOC, V64, P457 ESNARD AM, 2001, COAST MANAGE, V29, P53 FAIRFAX S, 2005, BUYING NATURE LIMITS FINKL CW, 2003, J COASTAL RES, V19, P934 FREER J, 2006, S FLORIDA BUSIN 0602, P1 LANG R, 2005, MEGALOPOLIS EXPLORIN LARSEN J, 2006, HURRICANE DAMAGES SO MILETI D, 1999, DISASTERS DESIGN REA PELTIER M, 2006, PROPERTY INSURER BAI PLATT RH, 2002, COAST MANAGE, V30, P249 PUSZKINCHEVLIN A, 2007, THESIS COLUMBIA U, P376 SMITH R, 1998, PLANNING POST DISAST, P235 TITUS JG, 1998, MARYLAND LAW REV, V57, P1279 WHEELER L, 2006, AM COAST RISK WHEELER L, 2006, COASTAL GROWTH SPELL WHITE GF, 1975, ASSESSMENT RES NATUR, V1, P1 WISSOKER D, 1997, TESTING DISCRIMINATI NR 35 TC 0 J9 MAR TECHNOL SOC J BP 7 EP 15 PY 2006 PD WIN VL 40 IS 4 GA 146YK UT ISI:000244970400003 ER PT J AU Chen, M Pollard, D TI Development and application of an interactive climate-ecosystem model system SO CHINESE SCIENCE BULLETIN LA English DT Article C1 Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Atmospher Phys, START Reg Ctr Temp E Asia, Key Lab Reg Climate Environm E Asia, Beijing 100029, Peoples R China. Penn State Univ, Ctr Earth Syst Sci, University Pk, PA 16802 USA. RP Chen, M, Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Atmospher Phys, START Reg Ctr Temp E Asia, Key Lab Reg Climate Environm E Asia, Beijing 100029, Peoples R China. AB A regional climate-ecosystem model system is developed in this study. It overcomes the weakness in traditional one-way coupling models and enables detailed description of interactive process between climate and natural ecosystem. It is applied to interaction study between monsoon climate and ecosystem in East Asia, with emphasis on future climate and ecosystem change scenario forced by doubled CO2. The climate tends to be warmer and wetter under doubled CO2 in Jianghuai and the Yangzi River valley, but it becomes warmer and drier in inland areas of northern and northwestern China. The largest changes and feedbacks between vegetation and climate occur in northern China. Northern inland ecosystems experience considerable degradation and desertification, indicating a marked sensitivity and vulnerability to climatic change. The strongest vegetation response to climate change occurs in northern China and the weakest in southern China. Vegetation feedbacks intensify warming and reduce drying due to increased CO2 during summer in northern China. Generally, vegetation-climate interactions are much stronger in northern China than in southern China. CR BONAN G, 1996, 417STR NAT CTR ATM R, P150 BOVILLE BA, 1998, J CLIMATE, V11, P1115 CHARNEY J, 1975, Q J ROY METEOR SOC, V101, P193 CHEN M, 2003, J GEOPHYS RES-ATMOS, V108 CLAUSSEN M, 1994, CLIM RES, V4, P203 CLAUSSEN M, 1997, CLIM DYNAM, V13, P247 COSTA MH, 2000, J CLIMATE, V13, P18 CRAMER W, 2002, EARTH SYSTEM BIOL EC, P166 DICKINSON RE, 1993, NCARTN387STR72 DICKINSON RE, 1998, J CLIMATE, V11, P2823 DING Y, 1994, MONSOONS OVER CHINA, P12 DOUVILLE H, 2001, J CLIMATE, V14, P2381 FERRANTI L, 1999, Q J ROY METEOR SOC A, V125, P1527 FOLEY JA, 1998, GLOB CHANGE BIOL, V4, P561 FU CB, 1999, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V43, P477 GRELL GA, 1994, NCARTN398 HAXELTINE A, 1996, GLOBAL BIOGEOCHEM CY, V10, P693 HOFFMANN WA, 2000, J CLIMATE, V13, P1593 KALNAY E, 1996, B AM METEOROL SOC, V77, P437 LU LX, 2001, J CLIMATE, V14, P900 MEEHL GA, 1994, J CLIMATE, V7, P1033 NEW M, 1999, J CLIMATE, V12, P829 NI J, 2001, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V49, P339 PRENTICE IC, 1992, J BIOGEOGR, V19, P117 SHUKLA J, 1982, SCIENCE, V215, P1498 TEXIER D, 1997, CLIM DYNAM, V13, P865 TSVETSINSKAYA EA, 2001, J CLIMATE, V14, P692 WANG GL, 2002, QJR METEOROL SOC, V126, P1239 WEBSTER PJ, 1983, J ATMOS SCI, V40, P2110 XIE PP, 1996, J CLIMATE, V9, P840 NR 30 TC 0 J9 CHIN SCI BULL BP 44 EP 55 PY 2003 PD DEC VL 48 GA 835PP UT ISI:000222497000008 ER PT J AU Winkler, H TI Climate change and developing countries SO SOUTH AFRICAN JOURNAL OF SCIENCE LA English DT Review C1 Univ Cape Town, Energy Res Ctr, ZA-7701 Rondebosch, South Africa. RP Winkler, H, Univ Cape Town, Energy Res Ctr, Private Bag, ZA-7701 Rondebosch, South Africa. AB This article takes stock of current knowledge of climate change and the response to this major problem affecting the environment and economic development. It begins with a brief review of climate change science and impacts as assessed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. It then reports on the status of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and its Kyoto Protocol, and summarizes national commitments to making the effort required to mitigate climate change by limiting the emission of greenhouse gases. The main issues still to be addressed are identified, focusing in particular on carbon markets and adaptation funding. Future prospects are considered, including possible emissions targets for developing countries. The article thus focuses on the key issues of concern for developing countries. CR *CLIM ACT NETW, 2005, WHY KYOT PROT HIST M *COMM EUR COMM, 2001, PROP DIR EUR PARL CO *EN ENV MIN ROUNDT, 2005, COCH SUMM P EN ENV M *GLOB ENV FAC, 2002, GEF ANN REP *GLOB ENV FAC, 2004, FIN REN GEF *GLOB ENV FAC, 2004, GEFC23INF8 *GLOB GOV IN, 2004, ASS WORLDS EFF CLIM *IN EN AG, 2002, KYOT EN DYN CLIM STA *INT EN AG, 2003, WORLD EN INV OUTL *IPCC, 1995, 2 ASS SYNTH SCI TECH *IPCC, 2000, SPEC REP EM SCEN *IPCC, 2000, SPEC REP REG IMP CLI *UN FRA CONV CLIM, 2001, CLIM CHANG INF KIT *UN FRAM CONV CLIM, 1997, KYOT PROT UN FRAM CO *UN FRAM CONV CLIM, 2002, FCCCSBI200214 UNFCCC *UN FRAM CONV CLIM, 2004, FCCCCP20049 UNFCCC *UNFCCC, 1992, UN FRAM CONV CLIM CH *VULN AD RES GROUP, 2003, POV CLIM CHANG RED V *WORLD RES I, 2003, CLIM AN IND TOOL AGARWAL A, 1991, GLOBAL WARMING UNEQU ALDY JE, 2003, KYOTO ADV INT EFFORT BAUMERT K, 2002, BUILDING KYOTO PROTO BODANSKY D, 2004, INT CLIMATE EFFORTS DAVIDSON O, 2003, CLIM POLICY S1, V3, S97 DENELZEN M, 2002, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V54, P29 DEROO A, 2004, INT IMP QRTR, V10, P2 ELLIS J, 2004, TAKING STOCK PROGR C GOLDEMBERG J, 1995, ENERGY INSTRUMENT SO GOLDEMBERG J, 1999, PROMOTING DEV WHILE GRUBB M, 2003, CARBON PRICES VOLUME HELLER TC, 2003, DEV CLIMATE ENGAGING HOUGHTON JT, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 HUQ S, 2003, MAINSTREAMING ADAPTA HUQ S, 2003, SCI ASSESSMENT INTER JOHANSSON TB, 1996, ENERG POLICY, V24, P985 LAZARUS M, IN PRESS PROJECT BAS MACE M, 2003, SEM JUST AD CLIM CHA MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 METZ B, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 OTT HE, 2004, S N DIALOGUE EQUITY REDDY AKN, 1990, SCI AM, V263, P110 SHUKLA PR, 2002, CLIMATE CHANGE MITIG SINHA CS, 2004, STATE TRENDS CARBON SUGIYAMA T, 2004, ENERG POLICY, V32, P697 TANGEN K, 2003, CONVERGING MARKETS VICTOR DG, 2004, CLIMATE CHANGE DEBAT WATSON RT, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 WINKLER H, 2002, BUILDING KYOTO PROTO, P61 YAMIN F, 2003, INT CLIMATE CHANGE R NR 49 TC 0 J9 S AFR J SCI BP 355 EP 364 PY 2005 PD JUL-AUG VL 101 IS 7-8 GA 989VP UT ISI:000233702400010 ER PT J AU OBrien, KL Leichenko, RM TI Winners and losers in the context of global change SO ANNALS OF THE ASSOCIATION OF AMERICAN GEOGRAPHERS LA English DT Article C1 Univ Oslo, CICERO, N-0318 Oslo, Norway. Rutgers State Univ, Dept Geog, Piscataway, NJ 08854 USA. RP OBrien, KL, Univ Oslo, CICERO, N-0318 Oslo, Norway. AB The idea that global change produces winners and losers is widely accepted. Yet there have been few systematic discussions of what is meant by "winner" or "loser," and little attention has been given to the theoretical underpinnings behind identification of winners and losers. This is particularly true within global-change literature, where the phrase "winners and losers" is widely and rather loosely used. In this article, we explore the concept of winners and losers in the context of two aspects of global change: economic globalization and climate change. We first identify two major underlying theoretical perspectives on winners and losers: one suggests that winners and losers are natural and inevitable; the other suggests that winners and losers are socially and politically generated. We then apply these perspectives to current research on global change and demonstrate that they play a decisive role, influencing opinions on what winning and losing entails, who winners and losers are, and how winners and losers should be addressed. 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UNIV DSCHANG,DEPT FORESTRY,DSCHANG,CAMEROON. RP Dixon, RK, US COUNTRY STUDIES PROGRAM,WASHINGTON,DC 20585. AB The response and feedbacks of forest systems to global environmental change, including the ecosystems of West Africa, are expected to be profound. A comparative assessment of current and future forest distribution in Cameroon and Ghana in response to land-use change and global climate change was completed. From 1970 to 1990, the forest area of Cameroon and Ghana declined dramatically due to harvesting and degradation, averaging 0.6 and 1.3% each year, respectively. The areal distribution of West African forest systems is projected to shift 5 to 15%, based on 4 General Circulation Model (GCM) scenarios and the Holdridge Life Zone Classification System. Loss of forest habitat due to destruction, degradation and climate change is projected to increase animal and plant species loss. Adaptation of evergreen and deciduous forest systems to global environmental change poses many challenges for Cameroon and Ghana. Application of low-input, indigenous resource management options, which have been practiced on a sustained basis for centuries, may be a feasible adaptation goal. 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RP Ziervogel, G, Univ Cape Town, Stockholm Environm Inst, Climate Syst Anal Grp, Dept Environm & Geog Sci, ZA-7925 Cape Town, South Africa. AB Understanding of how best to support those most vulnerable to climate stress is imperative given expected changes in climate variability. This paper investigates local adaptation strategies to climate variability, focusing on agricultural decision-making in a communal irrigation scheme in Vhembe District, Limpopo Province, South Africa. Research done through interviews, surveys and participatory methods demonstrates that adaptation strategies within a community are socially differentiated and present differing objectives and priorities. These results highlight the need for intervention and policy that support a heterogeneous response to a wide range of stresses. Evidence for climate change is clear and the need for adaptation is urgent. However, adaptation measures have to be sensitively integrated with ongoing development pathways to ensure they are sustainable and relevant to local priorities. CR *AFDB AS DEV BANK, 2003, POV CLIM CHANG RED V *IPCC, 2001, SUMM POL REP WORK GR ADGER WN, 2001, LIVING ENV CHANGE SO ADGER WN, 2003, CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPT, P29 ADGER WN, 2004, 7 U E ANGL TYND CTR ADGER WN, 2005, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V15, P77 ADGER WN, 2006, FAIRNESS ADAPTATION ARCHER ERM, 2003, B AM METEOROL SOC, V84, P1525 BERKHOUT F, 2006, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V78, P135 BEZUIDENHOUT CN, 2001, P S AFR SUG TECHNOL, V75, P215 BHARWANI S, 2005, PHILOS T ROY SOC B, V360, P2183 BHARWANI S, 2006, SOC SCI COMPUT REV, V24, P78 BOHLE HG, 1994, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V4, P37 BROOKS N, 2003, 38 U E ANGL TYND CTR BROOKS N, 2005, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V15, P151 BURTON I, 2002, CLIM POLICY, V2, P145 CLOVER J, 2003, AFRICA SECURITY REV, V12, P5 CONWAY D, 2005, PHILOS T ROY SOC A, V363, P49 DOWNING TE, 2005, ADAPTATION POLICY FR DOWNING TE, 2006, 4 SEI ELLIS F, 2000, RURAL LIVELIHOODS DI GODDARD L, 2001, INT J CLIMATOL, V21, P1111 GOLDMAN A, 1995, HUM ECOL, V23, P291 GREGORY PJ, 2005, PHILOS T ROY SOC B, V360, P2139 GROTHMANN T, 2005, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V15, P199 HEWITSON BC, 2006, INT J CLIMATOL, V26, P1315 HUQ S, 2003, MAINSTREAMING ADAPTA IONESCU C, 2005, 1 FAVAIA POTSD I CLI IONESCU C, 2005, 2 POTSD I CLIM IMP R JOHNSTON P, 2005, CLIM RES, V28, P67 KAHN ME, 2003, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V13, P307 KASPERSON JX, 2005, HUMAN DIMENSIONS GLO KELLY PM, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V47, P325 KLOPPER E, 1999, WATER SA, V25, P311 LEICHENKO RM, 2000, MITIGATION ADAPTATIO, V7, P1 LIM B, 2005, ADAPTATION POLICY FR MORTIMORE MJ, 2001, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V11, P49 MPANDELI NS, 2006, THESIS U WITWATERSRA MUNASINGHE M, 2005, PRIMER CLIMATE CHANG MURPHY SJ, 2001, NAT HAZARDS, V23, P171 NETTING RM, 1993, SMALLHOLDERS HOUSEHO NICHOLLS N, 1999, B AM METEOROL SOC, V80, P1385 OBRIEN KL, 2004, 200404 CICERO OBRIEN KL, 2005, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V14, P303 OSTROM E, 1990, GOVERNING COMMONS EV PAAVOLA J, 2006, ECOL ECON, V56, P594 PATT A, 2002, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V12, P185 PATT A, 2005, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V102, P12673 PELLING M, 2005, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V15, P308 REID P, 2006, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V16, P195 RIBOT JC, 1996, CLIMATE VARIABILITY, V1, P1 SCHOLES RJ, 2004, ECOSYSTEM SERVICES S SCHROTER D, 2004, MITIGATION ADAPTATIO, V30, P1 SHARMA U, 2005, HUM SEC CLIM CHANG I SHARP JS, 2003, AGR SYST, V76, P913 SIMMS A, 2004, UP SMOKE SMIT B, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, P877 STERN P, 1999, MAKING CLIMATE FOREC TADROSS M, 2005, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V32 TADROSS M, 2006, S AFRICA PILOT STUDY, P139 THOMALLA F, 2006, DISASTERS, V30, P39 THOMAS DSG, 2005, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V15, P115 TOMPKINS EL, 2002, ENVIRON PLANN A, V34, P1095 TOMPKINS EL, 2004, ECOL SOC, V9, P10 VOGEL C, 2000, S AFRICAN GEOGRAPHIC, V82, P107 WASHINGTON R, 1999, GEOGR J 3, V165, P255 WASHINGTON R, 2005, T232 U E ANGL TYND C WIGGINS S, 2005, AGR EC SOC ANN C NOT WISNER B, 2004, RISK NATURAL HAZARDS YOHE GW, 2002, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V12, P25 ZIERVOGEL G, 2003, AREA, V35, P403 ZIERVOGEL G, 2004, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V65, P73 ZIERVOGEL G, 2004, GEOGR J 1, V170, P6 ZIERVOGEL G, 2005, AGR SYST, V83, P1 ZIERVOGEL G, 2006, 20 AIACC START SECR NR 75 TC 0 J9 NATUR RESOUR FORUM BP 294 EP 305 PY 2006 PD NOV VL 30 IS 4 GA 119JM UT ISI:000243008600006 ER PT J AU PETTS, GE TI REGULATION OF LARGE RIVERS - PROBLEMS AND POSSIBILITIES FOR ENVIRONMENTALLY-SOUND RIVER DEVELOPMENT IN SOUTH-AMERICA SO INTERCIENCIA LA English DT Article RP PETTS, GE, LOUGHBOROUGH UNIV TECHNOL,PHYS GEOG,LOUGHBOROUGH LE11 3TU,LEICS,ENGLAND. AB During the past two decades scientific research has demonstrated the wideranging environmental effects of large dams. In developing countries, continued population growth and increased per capita resources demand are inevitable. In many countries, large dams will continue to be the focus of development to achieve food and energy security. Throughout Latin America large dams and reservoirs have become widespread since 1970 and continue to be built at a rate of two every three years. The main driving force is hydro-electric power production. South America has 20% of the world's hydro-electric power potential but in 1988 only 10% of this potential was exploited. The main focus of development is the upper Parana in south-east Brazil, although most large rivers are being developed to varying degrees. Large alluvial rivers are dominated by lateral gradients that greatly modify the longitudinal pattern of ecosystem processes predicted by the River Continuum Concept. Indeed, the main channel itself is primarily a zone of downstream transport, migration and refuge. Maximum ecological diversity and productivity occurs in reaches having maximum aquatic edge or ecotone. The floodplain ecotone is characterized by a mosaic of patches determined by hydrological and geomorphological processes. Many species are adapted to the hydrological regime, and the associated biogeochemical dynamics, which are particularly pronounced in tropical rivers. Along South American rivers the ecotone is particularly important for fisheries. However, the hydrological and geomorphological processes' are influenced by the human activities in the upstream catchment, including reservoir developments. The ecotone is particularly sensitive to river regulation, and in many cases impacts are exaccerbated by deforestation and pollution associated with urban development, industrialization and mining. Pollution can be particularly problematic in impounded and regulated reaches. All dams change riverine ecosystems downstream. Impacts on fisheries will result from creating barriers to migrations; from hydrological changes and water-quality changes; from changes of channel morphology, aquatic plants and invertebrate communities; and from reduced linkages between main river and floodplain. The fisheries of the once forested alluvial floodplain rivers of the temperate zone were drastically altered as a result of river regulation, and historical studies from Europe, for example, illustrate the vulnerability of floodplain rivers to hydrological changes. However, in Europe one focus of current scientific endeavour is to restore the forested, seasonally-inundated floodplain environments along some large rivers, including the Rhine and Danube. This has stimulated concern in developing countries for improved management strategies for rivers to ensure the sustainability of environmental resources. Environmentally-sound regulation of large rivers in South America requires maintenance of the ecotones. Developments are required in two areas: catchment planning and secondary regulation. Catchment management involves two components. First, the focussing of development on a few rivers so that others can be conserved in a wild state is a philosophy that is rapidly gaining support, not least by sponsoring agencies such as the World Bank. Secondly, as there is a more or less definable limit to the downstream effect of dams, consideration of the location and operational policy of proposed dams in a basin-wide context offers opportunities to minimize impacts and to protect vulnerable areas. Protection must be given, in particular, to locations of centers of organization. Once a plan has been proposed, secondary regulation measures must be developed to mitigate the anticipated adverse impacts. At a large scale, these should include measures to sustain the hydrological and geomorphological dynamics. At a smaller scale, management actions will be needed to maintain patches within the ecotone. These objectives will be met by a combination of three groups of tools. First, flow management requires the allocation of water to conserve ecosystem dynamics. Secondly, channel management involves engineering works to maintain the geomorphological structure of the system. Thirdly, controls on biota and human activities may be introduced, including stocking and culling, access and fishing restrictions. It would be naive to believe that secondary regulation measures alone can protect all ecosystems and all species. However, given appropriate administration and coordination during both the planning and project monitoring phases, the combination of catchment management and secondary regulation could facilitate environmentally-sound river development. 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AB Reducing losses to weather-related disasters, meeting the Millennium Development Goals and wider human development objectives, and implementing a successful response to climate change are aims that can only be accomplished if they are undertaken in an integrated manner. Currently, policy responses to address each of these independently may be redundant or, at worst, conflicting. We believe that this conflict can be attributed primarily to a lack of interaction and institutional overlap among the three communities of practice. Differences in language, method and political relevance may also contribute to the intellectual divide. Thus, this paper seeks to review the theoretical and policy linkages among disaster risk reduction, climate change and development. It finds that not only does action within one realm affect capacity for action in the others, but also that there is much that can be learnt and shared between realms in order to ensure a move towards a path of integrated and more sustainable development. 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CR 1930, DROUGHT RELIEF COMMI 1937, WORKS PROGR ADM RE 5, V1 1954, DROUGHT DESIGNATED C 1976, WEEKLY WEATHER CROP 1978, MANAGING RESOURCE SC 1979, FEDERAL RESPONSE 197 1982, CLIMATE IMPACT ASSES AISTRUP GK, 1956, THESIS KANSAS STATE CHANGNON SA, 1980, WATER INT, V5, P10 CRAWFORD AB, 1977, AAAS SELECTED S, V15, P143 CUTLER MR, 1977, COMMUNICATION 0415 FITE GC, 1966, FARMERS FRONTIER 186 GAMBONE JG, 1970, KANSAS HIST Q, V36, P149 GRUENTHER HH, 1954, COMMUNICATION 1007 HAMILTON DE, 1982, J AM HIST, V68, P850 HOLDEN WC, 1928, SW HIST Q, V32, P103 HURT RD, 1982, AGR SOCIAL HIST DUST LAMBERT R, 1977, J WEST JAN, V16, P66 MURPHY PG, 1935, DROUGHT 1934 FEDERAL PALMER WC, 1965, 45 US WEATH BUR RES SCOTT KL, 1954, COMMUNICATION 0730 STOCKTON BD, 1977, COMMUNICATION 0706 WHITE GF, 1975, ASSESSMENT RES NATUR, V1, P1 WILHITE DA, 1983, 1982 P INT HYDR S DE WILSON ML, 1937, COMMUNICATION 0707 WOODRUFF NE, 1977, THESIS U TENNESSEE NR 26 TC 12 J9 J CLIM APPL METEOROL BP 40 EP 50 PY 1983 VL 22 IS 1 GA QK214 UT ISI:A1983QK21400004 ER PT J AU Laubier, L TI Change and vulnerability of coastal marine communities. SO COMPTES RENDUS GEOSCIENCE LA French DT Article C1 Ctr Oceanol Marseille, F-13007 Marseille, France. RP Laubier, L, Ctr Oceanol Marseille, Rue Batterie Lions, F-13007 Marseille, France. AB Change and vulnerability of coastal marine communities. The anthropogenic increase of greenhouse effect has three main consequences in the coastal marine environment: enlargement of sea surface, increase of sea water carbon dioxide content, lastly increase of seawater temperature. The marine communities are principally sensitive to temperature increase. Mobile organisms change their place, while attached organisms suffer more or less acute mortality events. Present ecophysiological knowledge is not sufficient to anticipate these events. Systematic monitoring of marine communities becomes a necessity, parallel to the monitoring of physicochemical parameters and their palaeoclimatic history. (C) 2003 Academie des sciences. Public par Editions scientifiques et medicales Elsevier SAS. CR 1993, PROCEEDINGS WORLD CO BUDDEMEIER RW, 2000, RECHERCHE, V334, P52 CARTER RWG, 1988, COSTAL ENV CUSHING DH, 1982, CLIMATE FISHERIES GATTUSO JP, 1993, MAR ECOL-PROG SER, V96, P259 GLYNN PW, 1993, CORAL REEFS, V12, P1 KAWAHATA H, 1997, CORAL REEFS, V16, P261 LAUBIER L, 2001, ATTI ASS IT OCEAN LI, V14, P15 LECLERCQ N, 2000, GLOB CHANGE BIOL, V6, P329 MONTAGGIONI LF, 2002, OCEANIS, V26, P147 NEUHAUS R, 2001, CLIMATE 21 CENT CHAN, P311 PASKOFF R, 2001, ELEVATION NIVEAU MER QUERO JC, 1998, OCEANOL ACTA, V21, P345 RIEBESELL U, 2000, NATURE, V407, P364 RIEBESELL U, 2001, CLIMATE 21 CENT CHAN, P266 VONWESTERNHAGEN H, 2001, CLIM 21 CENT CHANGES, P283 WILKINSON CR, 1992, P 7 INT COR REEF S G, V1, P11 WILSON WH, 2001, AQUAT MICROB ECOL, V25, P99 NR 18 TC 1 J9 C R GEOSCI BP 561 EP 568 PY 2003 PD JUN-JUL VL 335 IS 6-7 GA 730EY UT ISI:000185817300008 ER PT J AU Eakin, H TI Institutional change, climate risk, and rural vulnerability: Cases from central Mexico SO WORLD DEVELOPMENT LA English DT Article C1 Univ Calif Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, CA 93106 USA. RP Eakin, H, Univ Calif Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, CA 93106 USA. AB A multiscalar, multistressor assessment of rural vulnerability is presented, illustrating how globalization, market liberalization, and climatic risk simultaneously structure the livelihood strategies of Mexican smallholders. Ethnographic data collected in three communities are used to argue that farmers' capacities to manage climatic risk are circumscribed by the ways in which they are able to negotiate changes in agricultural policy. Four livelihood strategies are explored in detail to show that market integration does not necessarily improve risk management capacity, and that subsistence maize production-while highly sensitive to hazards-may actually serve to enhance livelihood stability. The dominance of economic uncertainty over environmental risk in households' decision making implies a continued role for government intervention to help households adapt to climatic stress. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *CONAPO, 1998, IND MARG LOC 1995 *INIFAP, 1998, CONV PROD TEMP EST T *WORLD BANK, 2001, WORLD DEV REP 2000 2 ADGER WN, 1999, WORLD DEV, V27, P249 APPENDINI K, 1992, MILPA TORTIBONOS RES APPENDINI K, 1998, TRANSFORMATION RURAL, P25 AUSTIN JE, 1987, FOOD POLICY MEXICO S BAFFES J, 1998, J INT DEV, V10, P575 BATTERBURY S, 1999, ENVIRONMENT, V41, P7 BEBBINGTON A, 1999, WORLD DEV, V27, P2021 BERNARD HR, 1994, RES METHODS ANTHR BLAIKIE PM, 1994, RISK NATURAL HAZARDS, V1, P1 BRUSH S, 1977, MOUNTAIN FIELD FAMIL BRYCESON DF, 1996, WORLD DEV, V24, P97 BRYCESON DF, 2002, WORLD DEV, V30, P725 CHIOTTI QP, 1997, AGR RESTRUCTURING SU, P201 CONDE C, 1998, GEO UNAM, V5, P26 CONDE C, 2000, MEXICO VISION HACIA, P119 CORNELIUS W, 1998, TRANSFORMATION RURAL DEJANVRY A, 1995, REFORMAS SECTOR AGR DEJANVRY A, 2001, WORLD DEV, V29, P467 DELEON EZP, 1996, SEGUNDO INFORME GOBI DEWALT BR, 1979, MODERNIZATION MEXICA DOWNING TE, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE WORLD, P185 EAKIN H, 2003, J ENV DEVC, V12, P414 GERBER J, 1995, NAFTA TRANSITION, P93 GLEDHILL J, 1995, NEOLIBERALISM TRANSN HEWITT K, 1983, INTERPRETATIONS CALA, P3 HOLZMANN R, 2000, 0006 WORLD BANK SOC KATES RW, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P5 KATES RW, 2001, SCIENCE, V292, P641 KELLY PM, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V47, P325 LEICHENKO RM, 2002, MITIGATION ADAPTATIO, V7, P1 LIVERMAN DM, 2001, GLOBAL ENV RISK, P201 MAGANA V, 1999, IMPACTOS NINO MEXICO MAGANA V, 2005, CAMIBO CLIMATICO VIS, P203 MARSH R, 1998, TRANSFORMATION RURAL, P277 MCMICHAEL P, 1994, GLOBAL RESTRUCTURING MORTIMORE MJ, 1989, ADAPTING DROUGHT FAR MORTIMORE MJ, 1999, WORKING SAHE ENV SOC MOUNT TD, 1994, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V27, P121 MYHRE D, 1998, TRANSFORMATION RURAL, P39 NADAL A, 1999, ENV TRADE SERIES, V6 NADAL A, 2000, ENV SOCIAL IMPACTS E NETTING R, 1993, SMALLHOLDERS HOUSEHO OBRIEN KL, 2004, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V14, P303 OBRIEN KL, 2000, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V10, P221 OCHOA EC, 1994, ESTADO AGR MEXICO AN REARDON T, 2001, WORLD DEV, V29, P395 SCOONES I, 1998, 72 IDS SEN AK, 1981, Q J ECON, V96, P433 SEN AK, 1990, POLITICAL EC HUNGER, P50 SMITH B, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P223 SMITHERS J, 1997, AGR RESTRUCTURING SU SNYDER R, 2001, POLITICS NEOLIBERALI TIMMERMANN A, 1999, NATURE, V398, P694 TURNER BL, 2003, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V100, P8074 WATTS M, 1983, ANTIPODE, V15, P24 WISNER B, 1977, THESIS CLARK U WOOST YAPA L, 1996, LIBERATION ECOLOGIES YOHE GW, 2001, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V12, P25 ZIMMERER KS, 1991, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V81, P443 NR 62 TC 2 J9 WORLD DEVELOP BP 1923 EP 1938 PY 2005 PD NOV VL 33 IS 11 GA 982QE UT ISI:000233175900009 ER PT J AU Wagner, CG TI The struggle for environmental security - Scholars revisiting "The limits to growth" assess its predictions. SO FUTURIST LA English DT Editorial Material CR PIRAGES D, 2005, RESOURCE SCARCITY EC NR 1 TC 0 J9 FUTURIST BP 14 EP 15 PY 2005 PD NOV-DEC VL 39 IS 6 GA 972IG UT ISI:000232446900013 ER PT J AU Chemane, D Motta, H Achimo, M TI Vulnerability of coastal resources to climate changes in Mozambique: a call for integrated coastal zone management SO OCEAN & COASTAL MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article C1 Natl Inst Hydrog & Navigat, INAHINA, Maputo 2089, Mozambique. Minist Coordinat Environm Affairs, MICOA, Maputo 2020, Mozambique. Eduardo Mondland Univ, Fac Sci, Dept Geol, Maputo 257, Mozambique. RP Chemane, D, Natl Inst Hydrog & Navigat, INAHINA, Av Karl Marx 153, Maputo 2089, Mozambique. AB The Earth is affected by the emission of different gases which are largely generated by human activities. The "blanket" these gases form around the planet is likely to affect the climate balance. The resulting warmth could cause partial melting of the polar ice-caps, as well as the thermal expansion of the sea water, with the consequence of harmful degrees of sea-level rise. If global warming becomes a reality, with the consequential sea-level rise Africa's numerous islands and all its low-lying coastal areas, which include large areas of Mozambique, would be severely affected. This paper describes how the projected sea-level rise would affect a particular area in Mozambique, which is just one of the many vulnerable areas. The article also focuses on the broader framework for integrated coastal zone management in Mozambique and its enormous challenges, that aims to accommodate not only the current problems the coastal zone is facing, but also those resulting from the projected accelerated sea level rise. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *CNA, 1993, COMPILACCAO LEGISLAC *GTA, 1990, MOZ PRES ENV SIT *IPCC, 1990, SEA LEV RIS *MAP, 1995, POL PES ESTR IMPL *MICOA UEM, 1995, STAT QUO ASS COAST Z *MICOA, 1995, B SOC GEOL FRANCE, V3, P419 *MICOA, 1995, NEMP PROGR SUPP DOC *MICOA, 1995, PROGR NAC GEST AMB *SARDC, 1994, SARDC IUCN SADC *UNEP WMO, 1995, UN FRAM CONV CLIM CH BRUUN P, 1962, J WATERWAYS HARBORS, V88, P117 HUGHES P, 1992, J COASTAL RES, V8 JARITZ G, 1977, GEOL JB B, V26 LOPES L, 1996, PAP INV NA GEST ZON SAKET M, 1994, MOZ92031 FAOPNUD SAYAO O, 1995, INTEGRATED COASTAL A NR 16 TC 0 J9 OCEAN COAST MANAGE BP 63 EP 83 PY 1997 VL 37 IS 1 GA ZM705 UT ISI:000073567600006 ER PT J AU Walker, PA TI Political ecology: where is the ecology.? SO PROGRESS IN HUMAN GEOGRAPHY LA English DT Article C1 Univ Oregon, Dept Geog, Eugene, OR 97403 USA. RP Walker, PA, Univ Oregon, Dept Geog, Eugene, OR 97403 USA. CR BASSETT TJ, 2000, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V90, P67 BASSETT TJ, 2004, GEOGRAPHY AM DAWN 21 BATESON G, 1972, STEPS ECOLOGY MIND C BATTERBURY S, 1997, GEOGR J 2, V163, P126 BERNSTEIN H, 1979, J PEASANT STUD, V6, P420 BLAIKIE PM, 1985, POLITICAL EC SOIL ER BLAIKIE PM, 1987, LAND DEGRADATION SOC BRAUN B, 1998, REMAKING REALITY NAT BUNKER SG, 1984, AM J SOCIOL, V89, P1017 BURTON I, 1978, ENV HAZARD, V1, P1 BUTZER KW, 1989, GEOGRAPHY AM CARNEY J, 1990, AFRICA, V60, P207 FAIRHEAD J, 1995, WORLD DEV, V23, P1023 FORSYTH T, 2003, CRITICAL POLITICAL E FRANK AG, 1969, CAPITALISM UNDERDEVE GEZON LL, 1997, ETHNOLOGY, V36, P85 HECHT SB, 1985, WORLD DEV, V13, P663 HECHT SB, 1990, FATE FOREST DEV DEST HOLLING CS, 1986, SUSTAINABLE DEV BIOS, V1, P1 HOLLING CS, 2002, PANARCHY UNDERSTANDI HURLEY PT, 2004, ENVIRON PLANN A, V36, P1529 LEACH M, 1996, LIE LAND CHALLENGING MCCARTHY JJ, 2002, ENVIRON PLANN A, V34, P1281 MCCARTHY JP, 1998, REMAKING REALITY NAT MCCARTHY JP, 2001, VIOLENT ENV MOORE DS, 1993, ECON GEOGR, V69, P380 MOORE DS, 1998, CULT ANTHROPOL, V13, P344 ODUM HT, 1970, ENV POWER SOC PAULSON S, 2003, HUM ORGAN, V62, P205 PEET R, 1996, LIBERATION ECOLOGIES REICE SR, 1994, AM SCI, V82, P424 SCHROEDER RA, 1999, SHADY PRACTICES AGRO SHANIN T, 1971, PEASANTS PEASANT SOC SOULE M, 1995, REINVENTING NATURE SPRUGEL DG, 1991, BIOL CONSERV, V58, P1 STEWARD JH, 1955, THEORY CULTURAL CHAN TURNER BL, 2002, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V92, P52 TURNER M, 1993, ECON GEOGR, V69, P402 TURNER MD, 1998, J BIOGEOGR, V25, P669 TURNER MD, 1998, J BIOGEOGR, V25, P683 TURNER MD, 1999, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V89, P191 TURNER MD, 1999, HUM ECOL, V27, P267 TURNER MD, 1999, SOC NATUR RESOUR, V12, P643 VAYDA AP, 1999, HUM ECOL, V27, P167 WALKER P, 2003, CULT GEOGR, V10, P469 WALLERSTEIN IM, 1974, MODERN WORLD SYSTEM WATTS MJ, 1990, CAPITALISM NATURE SO, V4, P123 WATTS MJ, 1997, PROG HUM GEOG, V21, P75 WATTS MJ, 1983, SILENT VIOLENCE FOOD WATTS MJ, 1985, DESERT DEV MAN TECHN WATTS MJ, 2000, DICT HUMAN GEOGRAPHY WATTS MJ, 2003, UNPUB POLITICAL ECOL WILLEMSBRAUN B, 1997, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V87, P3 WOLF E, 1972, ANTHR Q, V45, P201 ZIMMERER KS, 1991, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V81, P443 ZIMMERER KS, 1993, ECON GEOGR, V69, P312 ZIMMERER KS, 1993, WORLD DEV, V21, P1659 ZIMMERER KS, 1994, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V84, P108 ZIMMERER KS, 1999, HUM ECOL, V27, P135 ZIMMERER KS, 2000, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V90, P356 ZIMMERER KS, 2000, ECUMENE, V7, P150 ZIMMERER KS, 2003, POLITICAL ECOLOGY IN ZIMMERER KS, 2003, SOC NATUR RESOUR, V16, P583 NR 63 TC 10 J9 PROG HUM GEOGR BP 73 EP 82 PY 2005 PD JAN VL 29 IS 1 GA 903QC UT ISI:000227439700007 ER PT J AU Zhao, YX Wang, CY Wang, SL Tibig, L TI Impacts of present and future climate variability on agriculture and forestry in the humid and sub-humid tropics SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 China Meteorol Adm, Chinese Acad Meteorol Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China. Peking Univ, Sch Phys, Beijing, Peoples R China. Phillippine Atmospher Geophys & Astron Serv Adm, Quezon City, Philippines. RP Zhao, YX, China Meteorol Adm, Chinese Acad Meteorol Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China. AB Although there are different results from different studies, most assessments indicate that climate variability would have negative effects on agriculture and forestry in the humid and sub-humid tropics. Cereal crop yields would decrease generally with even minimal increases in temperature. For commercial crops, extreme events such as cyclones, droughts and floods lead to larger damages than only changes of mean climate. Impacts of climate variability on livestock mainly include two aspects; impacts on animals such as increase of heat and disease stress-related death, and impacts on pasture. As to forestry, climate variability would have negative as well as some positive impacts on forests of humid and sub-humid tropics. However, in most tropical regions, the impacts of human activities such as deforestation will be more important than climate variability and climate change in determining natural forest cover. 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Univ Texas, Dept Geog & Environm, Austin, TX 78712 USA. RP Adamo, SB, Univ N Carolina, Carolina Populat Ctr, 3-2 E Univ Sq E,123 W Franklin St, Chapel Hill, NC 27516 USA. AB This paper explores environmental hazards, more specifically desertification processes, in all area of west central Argentina, addressing the combined influence of the physical framework and the long lasting human settlement and use of natural resources. It is based upon the analysis of remotely sensed using vegetation indices, image differentiation, change detection, and pattern metrics. The results indicate a net decreased in the amount of vegetation between 1973 and 2001, and increasing fragmentation of vegetation classes. This is interpreted as a sign of the presence of land degradation processes likely linked to human activities in the areas of irrigated farming, grazing, firewood gathering and population settlement. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 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Wealth, rights and disaster vulnerability SO DISASTERS LA English DT Article C1 Univ Massachusetts, Dept Ecol, Amherst, MA 01003 USA. RP Boyce, JK, Univ Massachusetts, Dept Ecol, Amherst, MA 01003 USA. AB Disaster-vulnerability reduction is an impure public good: when provided to one it is provided to others, but not equally provided to all. This means that in addition to the question of how much disaster-vulnerability reduction to provide, policymakers face the question of to whom it should be provided. This essay distinguishes between two broad classes of approaches to the latter question, one based one wealth, the other on rights. CR 1992, ECONOMIST 0208, P66 AHLUWALIA MS, 1974, REDISTRIBUTION GROWT ANDERSON MR, 1996, HUMAN RIGHTS APPROAC BLAIKIE PM, 1994, RISK NATURAL HAZARDS, V1, P1 CHERPITEL DJ, 2000, PROV CONS C RED DIS LAU M, 1996, HUMAN RIGHTS APPROAC LITTLE IMD, 1974, PROJECT APPRAISAL POPOVIC NAF, 1996, COLUM HUM RTS L REV, V27, P487 RAY A, 1984, COST BENEFIT ANAL IS SAMUELSON PA, 1955, REV ECON STAT, V37, P350 NR 10 TC 3 J9 DISASTERS BP 254 EP 261 PY 2000 PD SEP VL 24 IS 3 GA 357QP UT ISI:000089512600006 ER PT J AU Naess, LO Norland, IT Lafferty, WM Aall, C TI Data and processes linking vulnerability assessment to adaptation decision-making on climate change in Norway SO GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS LA English DT Article C1 Univ Oslo, CICERO, N-0318 Oslo, Norway. Univ Oslo, Program Res & Documentat Sustainable Soc, N-0317 Oslo, Norway. Western Norway Res Inst, N-6851 Sogndal, Norway. RP Naess, LO, Univ Oslo, CICERO, POB 1129 Blindern, N-0318 Oslo, Norway. AB The article focuses on the use of climate change vulnerability assessments in a local decision-making context, with particular reference to recent studies in Norway. We focus on two aspects of vulnerability assessments that we see as key to local decision-making: first, the information generated through the assessments themselves, and second, the institutional linkages to local level decision-making processes. Different research approaches generate different types of data. This is rarely made explicit, yet it has important implications for decision-making. In addressing these challenges we propose a dialectic approach based on exchange, rather than integration of data from different approaches. The focus is on process over product, and on the need for anchoring vulnerability assessments in local decision-making processes. In conclusion, we argue that there is unlikely to be one single 'correct' assessment tool or indicator model to make vulnerability assessments matter at a local level. (C) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *ACIA, 2004, ARCT CLIM CHANG IMP *MIN ENV MIN LOC G, 1997, T597 MIN ENV *NVE, 1999, GUID LAND US SAF FLO AAHEIM A, 2004, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V14, P147 AALL C, 2003, 303 VF W NORW RES I AALL C, 2003, REGIONAL SUSTAINABLE AALL C, 2004, 204 PROSUS U OSL ADGER WN, 2000, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V90, P738 ADGER WN, 2004, 7 U E ANGL TYND CTR BACKSTRAND K, 2002, BERL C KNOWL SUST TR BERG H, 2004, 39 FLOOD COAST MAN C BERKHOUT F, 1999, INSIGHTS, V30, P1 BERKHOUT F, 2002, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V12, P83 BJORNAES T, 2002, 52002 PROSUS U OSL BJORNAES T, 2002, REALIZING RIO NORWAY BJORNAES T, 2004, NORWEGIAN MONITOR, V21 BURTON I, 2002, CLIM POLICY, V2, P145 CARTER TR, 1994, 1 SESS C PART UN FRA CARTER TR, 1994, TECHNICAL GUIDELINES CASH DW, 2000, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V10, P109 CASH DW, 2003, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V100, P8086 CUTTER SL, 1993, LIVING RISK CUTTER SL, 2003, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V93, P1 DESSAI S, 2003, 34 U E ANGL TYND CTR DOWNING TE, 2004, 3 UNDP FORD JD, 2004, ARCTIC, V57, P389 FUSSEL HM, IN PRESS CLIMATE CHA GODDARD L, 2001, INT J CLIMATOL, V21, P1111 GROVEN K, UNPUB NATURAL DISAST IVERSEN T, 2003, NORWEGIAN CICERONE, V5, P20 JACOBS K, 2005, ENVIRONMENT, V47, P6 LEMOS MC, 2005, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V15, P57 LINDSETH G, 2003, 2003 HAMB C DISC MAT LINDSETH G, 2004, 404 PROSUS U OSL LINDSETH G, 2005, J ENV POLICY PLANNIN, V1, P61 LISO KR, 2003, BUILD RES INF, V31, P200 LIVERMAN DM, 2002, CLIMATE RES, V21, P199 LORENZONI I, 2000, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V10, P145 LORENZONI I, 2000, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V10, P57 MALONE EL, 2001, CLIMATE RES, V19, P173 MOSER SC, 2005, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V15, P353 NAESS LO, 2005, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V15, R10 OBRIEN KL, 2004, 200404 CICERO OBRIEN KL, 2004, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V64, P193 OBRIEN KL, 2003, PLAN TIDSKRIFT SAMFU, V5, P12 PATT A, 2005, CR GEOSCI, V337, P411 PATT A, 2005, CR GEOSCI, V337, P425 SCHROTER D, 2005, MITIGATION ADAPTATIO, V10, P573 TURNER BL, 2003, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V100, P8074 WILBANKS TJ, 1999, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V43, P601 WILBANKS TJ, 2003, CLIM POLICY S1, V3, S147 WILBANKS TJ, 2004, BRIDG SCAL EP LINK L YOUNG O, 1998, 9 IHDP NR 53 TC 0 J9 GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANGE BP 221 EP 233 PY 2006 PD MAY VL 16 IS 2 GA 051NM UT ISI:000238167800010 ER PT J AU Bellwood, DR Hughes, TP Folke, C Nystrom, M TI Confronting the coral reef crisis SO NATURE LA English DT Review C1 James Cook Univ N Queensland, Dept Marine Biol, Ctr Coral Reef Biodivers, Townsville, Qld 4811, Australia. Univ Perpignan, Ecole Prat Hautes Etud, CNRS, UMR 8046, F-66860 Perpignan, France. Stockholm Univ, Dept Syst Ecol, SE-10691 Stockholm, Sweden. Royal Swedish Acad Sci, Beijer Int Inst Ecol Econ, Stockholm, Sweden. RP Bellwood, DR, James Cook Univ N Queensland, Dept Marine Biol, Ctr Coral Reef Biodivers, Townsville, Qld 4811, Australia. AB The worldwide decline of coral reefs calls for an urgent reassessment of current management practices. confronting large-scale crises requires a major scaling-up of management efforts based on an improved understanding of the ecological processes that underlie reef resilience. Managing for improved resilience, incorporating the role of human activity in shaping ecosystems, provides a basis for coping with uncertainty, future changes and ecological surprises. Here we review the ecological roles of critical functional groups (for both corals and reef fishes) that are fundamental to understanding resilience and avoiding phase shifts from coral dominance to less desirable, degraded ecosystems. We identify striking biogeographic differences in the species richness and composition of functional groups, which highlight the vulnerability of Caribbean reef ecosystems. These findings have profound implications for restoration of degraded reefs, management of fisheries, and the focus on marine protected areas and biodiversity hotspots as priorities for conservation. 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RP Nakamura, T, UNEP, Div GEP Coordinat, POB 47074, Nairobi 00100, Kenya. AB The use of a set of indicators is proposed for the purpose of making an effective decision within an ecosystem-based approach to river basin management. The indicators are selected to reflect and represent hydrological, geochemical, ecological and socio-economic functions identified as relevant ecosystem functions and services included in the target river basin. Depending on the river basin management objectives, these indicators are defined and then weighted. The ecosystem function index is formulated using the weighted indicators, and indicates proposed management options within the framework of the ecosystem-based river basin management regarding the management objectives. The ecosystem function index is intended to represent the ecosystem vulnerability and resilience to pressures and threats caused by human intervention within the specific river basin. Copyright (c) 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. CR *CCICED TASK FORC, 2004, PROM INT RIV BAS MAN *GIWA, 2001, GLOB INT WAT ASS *SEPA UNEP UN HABI, 2004, FLOOD VULN ASS CAS S *SOPAC UNEP, 2005, BUILD RES SIDS *SOPAC, 1999, ENV VULN IND EVI SUM *UNDHA, 1993, GLOSS INT AGR GLOSS *UNDP UNEP WORLD B, 2000, WORLD RES 2000 2001 *UNEP, 1996, GLOB BIOD ASS *UNEP, 1999, SCOP MISS 1998 FLOOD *UNEP, 2001, VULN IND CLIM CHANG *UNEP, 2002, GLOB ENV OUTL, V3, P301 *WORLD EC FOR, 2000, PIL ENV SUST IND JIN LX, 2005, PAYMENT ENV ECOSYSTE LONERGAN S, 1998, 1 GLOB ENV CHANG HUM NAKAMURA T, 2000, 2 WORKSH VULN ASS FL NAKAMURA T, 2001, P INT SEM INT WAT MA, P161 NAKAMURA T, 2002, UNCHS UNEP 2002 MITI, V1, P66 NAKAMURA T, 2003, HYDROL PROCESS, V17, P2711 PATKINS J, 2000, 40 COMM SECR VEMULA VG, 2004, TRAINING WORKSHOP WE ZHANG JP, 2000, SEPA UNEP UNCHS 2000, P120 NR 21 TC 0 J9 HYDROL PROCESS BP 1293 EP 1308 PY 2006 PD APR 15 VL 20 IS 6 GA 035QA UT ISI:000237015200005 ER PT J AU Barnett, J TI Destabilizing the environment-conflict thesis SO REVIEW OF INTERNATIONAL STUDIES LA English DT Article AB The argument that environmental degradation will lead to conflict is a well established concern of international studies, and it dominates the literature on environmental security. This article critically examines theories about wars fought over scarce 'environmental' resources,'water wars', and the argument that population growth may induce conflict. One significant research programme-the Project on Environment, Population and Security-is also discussed. The article ends with an evaluation of the theoretical merits and practical effects of the environment-conflict thesis. It argues that the environment-conflict thesis is theoretically rather than empirically driven, and is both a product and legitimation of the Northern security agenda. 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CR 1977, ENERGY CLIMATE 1977, WORKSHOP ALTERNATIVE 1978, 1978 SCOPE WORKSH CL 1979, INTERFUTURES FACING 1979, SOCIAL SCI POLICY MA 1980, 013 US DEP EN REP 1980, 1980 CTR ENV ASS SER 1980, AD HOC STUDY PANEL E 1980, UNEP EXPERT GROUP M 1980, WMO540 WORLD MET ORG 1980, WORKSHOP ENV SOC CON, P79 1981, JOINT WMO ICSU UNEP 1981, MANAGING CLIMATIC RE ABT CC, 1979, P AM ACAD ARTS SCI, V108, P89 AUSUBEL J, 1980, WP80152 INT I APPL S AUSUBEL J, 1980, WP80153 INT I APPL S BECK LW, 1949, SCI MON, V68, P386 BISWAS AK, 1979, FOOD CLIMATE MAN, P237 BOHRNSTEDT GW, 1980, AM BEHAVIORAL SCI, V23, P781 BROAD WJ, 1980, SCIENCE, V210, P171 BROAD WJ, 1980, SCIENCE, V210, P38 BROWN GE, 1980, WORKSHOP ENV SOC CON, P122 BUTZER K, 1980, AM SCI, V68, P517 CATTON WR, 1980, AM BEHAV SCI, V23, P15 CHEN RS, 1980, P BIOENERGY 80 WORLD, P544 CHURCHMAN CW, 1977, ADAPTING SCI SOCIAL, P11 CORWIN R, 1977, ADAPTING SCI SOCIAL, P107 DALY HE, 1980, AM BEHAV SCI, V24, P79 DUNLAP RE, 1980, AM BEHAV SCI, V24, P5 ERICKSEN NJ, 1975, SCENARIO METHODOLOGY FEYERABEND P, 1978, METHOD FISCHHOFF B, 1980, COGNITION SOCIAL BEH, P579 FISCHHOFF B, 1982, SOCIAL SCI RES CLIMA GLANTZ M, 1979, NATURE, V280, P189 GLANTZ MH, 1981, 1981 WORKSH IMPR SCI HAHN WA, 1977, ADAPTING SCI SOCIAL, P253 HAMMOND KR, 1977, IEEE T SYST MAN CYB, V7, P358 HORVITZ D, 1977, ADAPTING SCI SOCIAL, P239 HUNTINGTON E, 1915, CLIMATE CIVILIZATION JONES C, 1979, POLICY ANAL, V5, P473 KATES RW, 1980, IMPROVING SCI IMPACT KELLOGG WW, 1981, CLIMATE CHANGE SOC C KOOPMANS TC, 1979, AM EC REV, V69, P1 KUHN TS, 1970, STRUCTURE SCI REVOLU LANDSBERG H, 1946, SCI MONTHLY, V63, P293 LAVE LB, 1981, CP8114 INT I APPL SY MACLANE S, 1980, SCIENCE, V210, P158 MANN D, 1982, SOCIAL SCI RES CLIMA MAR BW, 1976, ENVIRON SCI TECHNOL, V10, P650 MEAD M, 1977, 143RD S ANN M AM ASS NAGEL E, 1961, STRUCTURE SCI PROBLE RABB TK, 1982, SOCIAL SCI RES CLIMA ROBINSON JB, 1981, WP8134 INT I APPL SY SCHIPPER L, 1977, 143RD S ANN M AM ASS SCHNEIDER SH, 1974, REV GEOPHYS SPACE PH, V12, P447 SCHNEIDER SH, 1977, 143RD S ANN M AM ASS SCHNEIDER SH, 1977, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V1, P21 SCHNEIDER SH, 1981, ANN REV ENERGY, V5, P107 SCHNEIDER SH, 1981, PRIMORDIAL BOND EXPL SCHNEIDER SH, 1982, UNPUB FOOD CLIMATE I SCRIBNER RA, 1977, ADAPTING SCI SOCIAL SHELDON EB, 1975, SCIENCE, V188, P693 SMITH VK, 1980, EC IMPACT ANAL CLIMA TORRY WI, 1979, CURR ANTHROPOL, V20, P517 TORRY WI, 1982, UNPUB SOCIAL SCI RES TOULMIN S, 1977, PHILOS SCI WARRICK RA, 1981, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V3, P387 WEINGART J, 1977, 143RD S ANN M AM ASS WEISS EB, 1982, UNPUB SOCIAL SCI RES WHITE GF, 1975, ASSESSMENT RES NATUR, V1, P1 WHITE IL, 1979, ENV PROFESSIONAL, V1, P51 NR 71 TC 5 J9 CLIMATIC CHANGE BP 429 EP 447 PY 1981 VL 3 IS 4 GA MW757 UT ISI:A1981MW75700004 ER PT J AU Pielke, RA Landsea, C Mayfield, M Laver, J Pasch, R TI Hurricanes and global warming SO BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY LA English DT Article C1 Univ Colorado, Ctr Sci & Technol Policy Res, Boulder, CO 80309 USA. NOAA, Atlantic Oceanog & Meteorol Lab, Hurricane Res Div, Miami, FL 33149 USA. NOAA, Natl Hurricane Ctr, Miami, FL 33149 USA. NOAA, Climate Predict Ctr, Camp Springs, MD USA. RP Pielke, RA, Univ Colorado, Ctr Sci & Technol Policy Res, 1333 Grandview Ave,UCB 488, Boulder, CO 80309 USA. AB This paper reviews recent research on tropical cyclones and climate change from the perspective of event risk-the physical behavior of storms; vulnerability-the characteristics of a system that create the potential for impacts, but are independent of event risk; and also outcome risk-the integration of considerations of vulnerability with event risk to characterize an event that causes losses. The paper concludes that with no trend identified in various metrics of hurricane damage over the twentieth century, it is exceedingly unlikely 'that scientists will identify large changes in historical storm behavior that have significant societal implications, though scientists may identify discernible changes in storm behavior. Looking to the future, until scientists conclude a) that there will be changes to storms that are significantly larger than observed in the past, b) that such changes are correlated to measures of societal impact, and c) that the effects of such changes are significant in the context of inexorable growth in population and property at risk, then it is reasonable to conclude that the significance of any connection of human-caused climate change to hurricane impacts necessarily has been and will continue to be exceedingly small. CR *HARV MED SCH, 2004, EXP WARN GLOB WARM L *NCAR, 2004, HURR CLIM CHANG THER BISTER M, 2002, J GEOPHYS RES-ATMOS, V107 CHAN JCL, 2004, J CLIMATE, V17, P4590 EILPERIN J, 2005, WASHINGTON POST 0123, A13 ELSNER JB, 2000, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V27, P129 EMANUEL K, 2000, MON WEATHER REV, V128, P1139 EMANUEL K, 2005, NATURE, V436, P686 EMANUEL KA, 1987, NATURE, V326, P483 EPSTEIN PR, 2004, B AM METEOROL SOC, V85, P1863 FREE M, 2004, J CLIMATE, V17, P1722 GOLDENBERG SB, 2001, SCIENCE, V293, P474 GRAY WM, 1968, MON WEA REV, V96, P669 GRAY WM, 1979, METEOROLOGY TROPICAL, P155 GRAY WM, 1997, HURRICANES CLIMATE S, P15 HENDERSONSELLER.A, 1998, B AM METEOROL SOC, V79, P9 HENSON B, 2005, UCAR Q WIN HOUGHTON JT, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 KNUTSON TR, 2004, J CLIMATE, V17, P3477 LANDER MA, 1998, MON WEATHER REV, V126, P1163 LANDSEA CW, 1999, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V42, P89 LIGHTHILL J, 1994, B AM METEOROL SOC, V75, P2147 MICHAELS PJ, 2005, IN PRESS J CLIMATE PIELKE RA, 1997, HURRICANES THEIR NAT PIELKE RA, 1998, WEATHER FORECAST 2, V13, P621 PIELKE RA, 2000, ENERGY ENV, V11, P255 PIELKE RA, 2003, NATURAL HAZARDS REV, V4, P101 PULWARTY RS, 1997, HURRICANES CLIMATE S RAYNER S, 2004, INT CHALLENGE CLIMAT ROYER JF, 1998, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V38, P307 SAREWITZ D, 2003, RISK ANAL, V23, P805 SUGI M, 2002, J METEOROL SOC JPN, V80, P249 TRENBERTH K, 2005, SCIENCE, V308, P1753 WALSH K, 2004, CLIM RES, V27, P78 WEBSTER PJ, 2005, SCIENCE, V309, P1844 NR 35 TC 14 J9 BULL AMER METEOROL SOC BP 1571 EP + PY 2005 PD NOV VL 86 IS 11 GA 987LC UT ISI:000233518400018 ER PT J AU Matthew, RA Gaulin, T McDonald, B TI The elusive quest: Linking environmental change and conflict SO CANADIAN JOURNAL OF POLITICAL SCIENCE-REVUE CANADIENNE DE SCIENCE POLITIQUE LA English DT Article C1 Univ Calif Irvine, Sch Social Ecol, Irvine, CA 92697 USA. Univ Calif Irvine, Dept Polit Sci, Irvine, CA 92697 USA. RP Matthew, RA, Univ Calif Irvine, Sch Social Ecol, Irvine, CA 92697 USA. AB Despite contentious debates within the field of environmental security, findings of the principal research projects undertaken in the 1990s suggest significant agreement about the process linking environmental change to conflict. This article offers a reconsideration of the theoretical arguments unifying much of the research in environmental security, and argues that cases must extend their time frames considerably. The authors suggest that this would improve understanding of the social effects of environmental change, but is likely to revise mainstream arguments connecting environment and security in dramatic ways. By focusing on the often neglected role played by adaptive mechanisms, longer-range case studies tend not to support the claim that environmental stress is, an urgent security issue, viewing it instead as an issue with long-term theoretical and policy relevance to those concerned not only with security, but also with sustainable development and environmental justice. CR *N ATL TREAT ORG C, 1999, ENV SEC INT CONT *WOODR WILS INT CT, 2000, ENV CHANG SEC PROJ *WORLD COMM ENV DE, 1987, COMM FUT BAECHLER G, 1998, ENV CHANGE SECURITY, V4, P24 BARNETT J, 2001, MEANING ENV SECURITY BULLARD R, 1994, UNEQUAL PROTECTION E CROSBY AW, 1986, ECOLOGICAL IMPERIALI DABELKO GD, 1999, WILSON Q, V23, P14 DALBY S, 1999, CONTESTED GROUNDS SE DALBY S, 2000, ENV SECURITY DISCOUR DALY H, 1989, COMMON GOOD REDIRECT DESOMBRE ER, 2002, CONSERVING PEACE DESOYA I, 1999, ENV CHANGE SECURITY, V5, P15 DESSLER D, 1999, ENV CHANGE SECURITY, V5, P100 DEUDNEY D, 1990, MILLENNIUM-J INT ST, V19, P461 DEUDNEY D, 1999, CONTESTED GROUNDS SE DIAMOND J, 1997, GUNS GERMS STEEL FAT DIEHL P, 2001, ENV CONFLICT DOYLE M, 1995, CONTROVERSIES INT RE DOYLE M, 1997, WAYS WAR PEACE REALI EHRLICH PR, 1968, POPULATION BOMB ESTY D, 1999, ENV CHANGE SECURITY FAGAN B, 1999, FLOODS FAMINES EMPER GAULIN T, 2000, ENV CHANGE SECURITY, V6, P104 GLEICK PH, 1991, B ATOM SCI, V47, P16 GURR T, 1993, MINORITIES RISK GLOB HOMERDIXON T, 1998, ECOVIOLENCE LINKS EN HOMERDIXON T, 1999, ENV SECURITY VIOLENC HOMERDIXON T, 2000, INGENUITY GAP HOMERDIXON TF, 1991, INT SECURITY, V16, P76 HOMERDIXON TF, 1994, INT SECURITY, V19, P5 INGLEHART R, 1990, CULTURE SHIFT ADV IN JACKSON JBC, 2001, SCIENCE, V293, P629 JACKSON R, 2000, GLOBAL COVENANT HUMA KAPLAN RD, 1994, ATLANTIC MONTHLY FEB, V273, P44 KEOHANE R, 1989, INT I STATE POWER ES LEVY MA, 1995, ENV CHANGE SECURITY, V1, P44 LEVY MA, 1995, INT SECURITY, V20, P35 LONERGAN SC, 1999, ENV CHANGE ADAPTATIO LOWI MR, 2000, ENV SECURITY DISCOUR MALCOMSON S, 1990, TUTURANI POLITICAL J MATHEWS JT, 1989, FOREIGN AFF, V68, P162 MATTHEW R, 2000, J POLICY HIST, V12, P101 MATTHEW RA, 1999, ENV CHANGE ADAPTATIO MATTHEW RA, 2000, ENV CHANGE SECURITY, V6, P99 MATTHEW RA, 2001, ENV CHANGE SECURITY, V7, P17 MATTHEW RA, 2001, GLOBAL ENV POLITICS, V1, P48 MATTHEW RA, 2002, CONSERVING PEACE MCNEILL J, 2000, SOMETHING NEW SUN EN MEARSHEIMER JJ, 1990, INT SECURITY, V15, P5 MYERS N, 1993, ULTIMATE SECURITY EN NAUMAN N, 1996, RETHINKING SECURITY OPHULS W, 1977, ECOLOGY POLITICS SCA PELUSO N, 2001, VIOLENT ENV PONTING C, 1991, GREEN HIST WORLD ENV RUGGIE J, 1993, MULTILATERALISM MATT RUMMEL RJ, 1997, POWER KILLS DEMOCRAC RUSSETT B, 1993, GRASPING DEMOCRATIC SIMON J, 1984, RESOURCEFUL EARTH RE STEIN A, 1990, WHY NATIONS COOPERAT THOMPSON M, 2000, ENV SECURITY DISCOUR ULLMAN RH, 1983, INT SECURITY, V8, P129 WALZER M, 1992, JUST UNJUST WARS MOR WALZER M, 1993, SPHERES JUSTICE DEFE WALZER M, 1994, THICK THIN MORAL ARG WAPNER P, 1996, ENV ACTIVISM WORLD C WELSH BJ, 1990, US INTEREST RES GROW WOLF A, 1999, ENV CHANGE ADAPTATIO NR 68 TC 0 J9 CAN J POLIT SCI BP 857 EP 878 PY 2003 PD SEP VL 36 IS 4 GA 738AN UT ISI:000186264700007 ER PT J AU Kiparsky, M Brooks, C Gleick, PH TI Do regional disparities in research on climate and water influence adaptive capacity? SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 Univ Calif Berkeley, Energy & Resources Grp, Berkeley, CA 94720 USA. Pacific Inst, Oakland, CA 94612 USA. RP Kiparsky, M, Univ Calif Berkeley, Energy & Resources Grp, 310 Barrows Hall, Berkeley, CA 94720 USA. AB As part of a long-term effort to both improve access to information on climate change and freshwater resources, and to understand the state of the science, we compiled an electronic bibliography of scientific literature in that area. We analyzed the distribution of information on climatic impacts on freshwater resources, with an emphasis on differences between developed and developing regions as well as differences in the types and focus of research carried out among regions. There has been more research overall in developed countries than in the developing world. Proportionally more of the available research on natural and human systems pertains to developed regions, while most of the analysis done in developing countries is limited to higher-level climatology and hydrology. We argue that scientific information and understanding are important elements of the ability to adapt to potential climatic changes. The distribution of the scientific literature in our database suggests that the types of science most directly relevant to adaptive capacity are skewed towards developed countries, which may exacerbate existing disparities in adaptive capacity, and ultimately worsen the consequences of climatic impacts in developing countries. CR 2000, WORLD COMMISSION DAM *UNESCO, 2001, STAT SCI TECHN WORLD AGARWAL A, 2002, CLIMATE CHANGE POLIC BAER P, 2002, CLIMATE CHANGE POLIC BRISCOE J, 1996, WATER SUPPLY, V14, P1 BRISCOE J, 1999, WATER RESOURCES DEV, V15, P459 BULLOCK A, 2003, CLIMATE CHANGES WATE, P60 CAMPBELL DJ, 1999, HUM ECOL, V27, P377 CHALECKI EL, 1999, J AM WATER RESOUR AS, V35, P1657 CLARKE AR, 1998, COMPREHENSIVE BIOL C, V3, P1 GARFIELD E, 1989, SCIENTIST, V3, P12 HAMMER GL, 2000, APPL SEASONAL CLIMAT HOLMGREN M, 2004, PLOS BIOL, V2, P10 HOUGHTON JT, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 ILBERY BW, 1997, AGR RESTRUCTURING SU KAHN HR, 2000, WATER RESOURCES DEV, V16, P21 KATES RW, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P5 MARX W, 2001, SCIENTOMETRICS, V52, P59 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 METZ B, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 MOENCH M, 2004, ADAPTIVE CAPACITY LI NELSON DR, 2000, PRACTICING ANTHR, V22, P6 VASQUEZLEON M, 2003, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V13, P159 WALLNER A, 2003, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V13, P185 NR 24 TC 0 J9 CLIMATIC CHANGE BP 363 EP 375 PY 2006 PD AUG VL 77 IS 3-4 GA 081HJ UT ISI:000240307600012 ER PT J AU Yanez-Arancibia, A Day, JW TI Environmental sub-regions in the Gulf of Mexico coastal zone: the ecosystem approach as an integrated management tool SO OCEAN & COASTAL MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article C1 CONACYT, Inst Ecol AC, Coastal Ecosyst Unit, Xalapa 91070, Veracruz, Mexico. Louisiana State Univ, Sch Coast & Environm, Coastal Ecol Inst, Dept Oceanog & Coastal Sci, Baton Rouge, LA 70803 USA. RP Yanez-Arancibia, A, CONACYT, Inst Ecol AC, Coastal Ecosyst Unit, Km 2-5 Antigua Carretera Coatepec 351, Xalapa 91070, Veracruz, Mexico. AB Ecological sub-regions are a way of viewing coastal zone (CZ) regions that have been developed to enhance the capability of NGOs, governmental organizations, and academics to assess conditions and trends of the major ecosystems in the Gulf of Mexico (Gulf), mainly as a management tool for defining priority actions towards sustainable development. Major "geographical regions" at scale-1-level (1:40) are: (a) the warm-temperate Gulf, (b) the tropical Gulf, and (c) the Caribbean coast of Mexico related to the Gulf. At scale-3-level (1:5 million) in region "A," six distinct environmental sub-regions are defined: Western Florida Estuarine Area, Eastern Gulf Neritic, Mississippi Estuarine Area, Texas Estuarine Area, Laguna Madre Estuarine Area, and Western Gulf Neritic. In regions "B" and "C", 13 distinct environmental sub-regions are defined: Southeast Floridian Neritic, Florida Keys, Florida Bay, Shark River Estuarine Area, Dry Tortugas/Florida Keys Reef Tract, Southwest Floridian Neritic, Veracruzan Neritic, Tabascan Neritic, Campeche Yucatanean Inner Neritic, Campeche Yucatanean Outer Neritic, Contoyan Neritic, Cancunean Neritic, and SianKa'anean Neritic. From a "hydrological units" focus, five main sub-regions are defined: (a) The western Florida rivers and ground-water discharge system, (b) The Mississippi River basin and delta, (c) The Texas estuaries and Laguna Madre US-Mexico integrated by the Rio Bravo delta, (d) The Usumacinta/Grijalva River basin and delta, and (e) The Rio Hondo-Chetumal Bay in the Caribbean coast of Mexico. Each "geographical/hydrological" sub-region can be viewed as a discrete system which results from the interaction of geologic, geomorphologic, oceanographic, climatic, freshwater drainage, physical, chemical, coastal vegetation, wildlife, estuary-shelf interactions, and human factors. The ecosystem approach adopted as a management tool for environmental sub-regions is predicated on: (a) accepting that interactions between the environment (atmosphere, water, land, biota) and human activities (social, cultural, economics) are inseparable, (b) realizing that humans are the major driving forces behind most ecological change, (c) recognizing environmental thresholds and their importance and linkages to human activities, (d) incorporating the needs of current and future generations, and e) implementing a long-term perspective that is anticipatory, preventative, and sustainable. We suggest for each sub-region to develop key agenda-topics to strengthen ICM and answer questions on, e.g., (a) controls of primary production and water fertility in the coastal zone, (b) energetic pulsing as the basis for sustainable management, (c) vulnerability of the coastal zone to global climatic change, (d) coastal wetlands restoration, and (e) environmental sustainability and the economic development of the coastal zone. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 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RP Smithers, J, Univ Guelph, Dept Geog, Guelph, ON N1G 2W1, Canada. AB Technological research and development are among the most frequently advocated strategies for adapting agriculture to possible future changes in climate. However, while many statements point to the reliance that is placed on technology, and to the power of induced innovation, the actual process of agricultural research and development has received little explicit consideration in the context of climatic constraints on food production. This paper offers both a descriptive assessment and empirical analysis of the place of technology research and development in climate adaptation research and planning. Insights into the assumed role of technology are developed through a review of the published literature and recent commentary. The role of technological innovation in the handling of climatic risks is then explored empirically in an analysis of innovation research and development in the Ontario soybean industry. This reveals an array of technological innovations that have helped Ontario soybean-growers manage climatic challenges to date, as well as a range of potential constraints on the innovation process itself. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *COUNC AGR SCI TEC, 1992, 119 CAST *ONT SOYB GROW MAR, 1988, ANN REP *ONT SOYB GROW MAR, 1998, SOYB VAR DISTR *USDA, 1990, MISCELLANEOUS PUBLIC, V1482 BAZZAZ F, 1996, GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANG BEVERSDORF WD, 1995, HARVEST GOLD HIST FI BLAIN R, 1995, 22 U GUELPH DEP GEOG BRKLACICH M, 1992, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V20, P1 BRKLACICH M, 1997, AGR RESTRUCTURING SU, P351 BRYANT CR, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P181 BURTON I, 1978, ENV HAZARD, V1, P1 CARTER TR, 1994, IPCC TECHNICAL GUIDE CHIOTTI QP, 1997, AGR RESTRUCTURING SU, P167 CHIOTTI QP, 1995, J RURAL STUD, V11, P335 CROSSON PR, 1983, AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON, V9, P339 CROSSON PR, 1989, SCI AM SEP, P128 DAMOTA FS, 1978, 160 WMO DAY P, 1995, 7 NAT AGR BIOT COUNC, P79 DUMANSKI J, 1986, J SOIL WATER CONSERV, V41, P204 EASTERLING WE, 1992, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V59, P3 EASTERLING WE, 1996, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V80, P1 EDWARDS CA, 1993, AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON, V46, P99 GLANTZ MH, 1988, SOC RESPONSES REGION, P113 GLANTZ MH, 1991, ENVIRONMENT, V33, P10 GOODMAN RM, 1987, SCIENCE, V236, P48 HAYAMI Y, 1985, AGR DEV INT PERSPECT HOUGHTON JT, 1990, IPCC SCI ASSESSMENT JOSEPH A, 1981, CAN GEOGR, V23, P333 KAISER HM, 1993, AGR DIMENSIONS GLOBA, P136 KLASSEN S, 1998, CANADIAN WATER RESOU, V24, P61 LEWANDROWSKI JK, 1992, EC ISSUES GLOBAL CLI, P132 LINSTONE HA, 1997, TECHNOL FORECAST SOC, V54, P1 MAJOR DJ, 1991, J PROD AGRIC, V4, P606 NELLIS MD, 1987, DEMANDS RURAL LAND P, P71 PARRY ML, 1988, IMPACTS CLIMATE VARI, V1 REILLY JM, 1998, SOIL TILL RES, V47, P275 ROSENBERG NJ, 1981, CLIMATES IMPACT FOOD, P157 ROSENBERG NJ, 1982, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V4, P239 ROSENBERG NJ, 1991, RESOURCES FUTURE, V103, P17 ROSENBERG NJ, 1992, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V21, P385 ROSENBERG NJ, 1993, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V24, P7 ROSENZWEIG C, 1994, NATURE, V367, P133 RUTTAN VW, 1996, CAN J PLANT PATHOL, V18, P123 SCHWEGER C, 1991, ALTERNATIVE FUTURES, P1 SEDEROFF R, 1995, 7 NAT AGR BIOT COUNC, P71 SMIT B, 1993, 19 U GUELPH DEP GEOG SMIT B, 1999, IN PRESS MITIGATION SMIT B, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P223 SMITH MJ, 1997, BRAIN RES BULL, V42, P1 SMITHERS J, 1997, AGR RESTRUCTURING SU, P167 SMITHERS J, 1997, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V7, P129 SPALING H, 1995, AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON, V53, P279 SPEDDING CR, 1996, AGR CITIZEN WARRICK RA, 1980, CLIMATIC CONSTRAINTS, P93 WHITE ME, 1994, CORNELL VET, V84, P1 NR 55 TC 0 J9 APPL GEOGR BP 175 EP 197 PY 2001 PD APR VL 21 IS 2 GA 444FW UT ISI:000169390300005 ER PT J AU Olden, JD TI A species-specific approach to modeling biological communities and its potential for conservation SO CONSERVATION BIOLOGY LA English DT Article C1 Colorado State Univ, Dept Biol, Ft Collins, CO 80523 USA. Colorado State Univ, Grad Degree Program Ecol, Ft Collins, CO 80523 USA. RP Olden, JD, Colorado State Univ, Dept Biol, Ft Collins, CO 80523 USA. AB Community-level approaches to biological conservation are now recognized as a major advance in most current single-species conservation and management practices. Existing approaches for modeling bio-logical communities, have limited utility, however, because they commonly examine community metrics (e.g., species richness, assemblage "types") and consequently do not consider the identity of the species that compose the community. This is a critical shortcoming because the functional differences among species ultimately translate into the differential vulnerability of biological communities to natural and human-related environmental change. To address this concern I present a novel, species-specific approach to modeling communities using a multiresponse, artificial neural network. This provides an analytical approach that facilitates the development of a single, integrative model that predicts the entire species membership of a community while still respecting differences in the functional relationship between each species and its environment. I used temperate-lake fish communities to illustrate the utility of this modeling approach and found that predictions of community composition by the neural network were highly concordant with observed compositions of the 286 study lakes. Average similarity between observed and predicted community composition was 80% (22 out of the 27 species correctly classified), and the model predicted a significant portion of the community composition in 91% of the lakes. I discuss the importance of the lake habitat variables for predicting community composition and explore the spatial distribution of model predictions in light of recent species invasions. The proposed modeling approach provides a powerful, quantitative tool for developing community predictive models that explicitly consider species membership, and thus each species' functional role in the community. Such models will contribute significantly to the study and conservation of biological communities. 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NSW Natl Pk & Wildlife Serv, Armidale, NSW 2350, Australia. CSIRO Sustainable Ecosyst, Trop Forest Res Ctr, Atherton, Qld 4883, Australia. Rainforest Cooperat Res Ctr, Atherton, Qld 4883, Australia. RP Margules, CR, Univ Sheffield, Biodivers & Macroecol Grp, Dept Anim & Plant Sci, Sheffield S10 2TN, S Yorkshire, England. AB An objective of biodiversity conservation activities is to minimize the exposure of biodiversity features to threatening processes and to ensure, as far as possible, that biodiversity persists in the landscape. We discuss how issues of vulnerability and persistence can and should be addressed at all stages of the conservation planning and implementation process. Procedures for estimating the likelihood of persistence and for measuring degrees of vulnerability at different spatial and temporal scales using subjective assessments, rules of thumb and analytical and simulation models are reviewed. The application of information on vulnerability and persistence to conservation planning and management is discussed under the headings of natural dynamics, replication of protection, levels of representation, source and sink population structures, refuges and critical resources, reserve design, habitat fragmentation and levels of management. 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ISI:000176944900007 ER PT J AU McMichael, AJ Kovats, RS TI Climate change and climate variability: Adaptations to reduce adverse health impacts SO ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING AND ASSESSMENT LA English DT Article C1 Univ London London Sch Hyg & Trop Med, Dept Epidemiol & Populat Hlth, London WC1E 7HT, England. RP McMichael, AJ, Univ London London Sch Hyg & Trop Med, Dept Epidemiol & Populat Hlth, London WC1E 7HT, England. AB Global climate change is likely to have a range of consequences for human health as a result of disturbance or weakening of the biosphere's natural or human-managed Life support systems. The full range of potential human health impacts of global climate change is diverse and would be distributed differentially spatially and over time. Changes in the mortality toll of heatwaves and changes in the distribution of vector-borne infectious diseases may occur early. The public health consequences of sea level rise and of regional changes in agricultural productivity may not occur (or become apparent) for several decades. Vulnerability is a measure of both sensitivity to climate change and the ability to adapt in anticipation of, or in response to, its impacts. The basic modes of adaptation to climate-induced health hazards are biological, behavioural and social. Adaptation can be undertaken at the individual, community and whole-population levels. Adaptive strategies should not introduce new health hazards. Enhancement of the acknowledged public health infrastructure and intervention programmes is essential to reduce vulnerability to the health impacts of climate change. In the longer-term, fundamental improvements in the social and material conditions of life and in the reduction of inequalities within and between populations are required for sustained reduction in vulnerability to environmental health hazards. CR *IFRC, 1996, WORLD DIS REP 1996 WATSON RT, 1998, REGIONAL IMPACTS CLI, V1, P1 *WCHE, 1992, OUR PLAN OUR HLTH *WHO, 1993, GLOB STRAT MAL CONTR *WHO, 1996, CTDPR971 WHO *WHO, 1998, WHO COMM ID CONSTR S *WMO, 1997, M EXP CLIM HUM HLTH BLAIKIE PM, 1994, RISK NATURAL HAZARDS, V1, P1 BOUMA MJ, 1996, TROP MED INT HEALTH, V1, P86 BOUMA MJ, 1997, JAMA-J AM MED ASSOC, V278, P1772 BOUMA MJ, 1997, LANCET, V350, P1435 COLWELL RR, 1996, SCIENCE, V274, P2025 DAVIS DL, 1997, LANCET, V350, P1341 FRISANCHO R, 1991, HUMAN ADAPTATION FUN GLASS GE, 1993, APPL GIS TECHNOLOGY HAINES A, 1997, BRIT MED J, V315, P870 HALES S, 1996, LANCET, V348, P1664 HARDY IRB, 1996, LANCET, V347, P1739 HUNTER JM, 1993, PARASITIC DIS WATER KALKSTEIN LS, 1995, CLIMATE CHANGES INT, P124 KALKSTEIN LS, 1996, B AM METEOROL SOC, V77, P1519 KELLERMANN AL, 1996, NEW ENGL J MED, V335, P126 KLEIN RJT, 1997, ADAPTATION CLIMATE C KOVATS RS, 1998, REPORT WHO UNEP MRC LINDSAY S, 1998, IN PRESS B WHO, V78 MARTENS WJM, 1997, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V35, P145 MARTENS WJM, 1998, HLTH CLIMATE CHANGE MCMICHAEL AJ, 1996, WHOEHG967 MCMICHAEL AJ, 1997, AUST NZ J PUBL HEAL, V21, P425 MCMICHAEL AJ, 1997, ENVIRON MODEL ASSESS, V2, P129 MURRAY CJL, 1996, SCIENCE, V274, P740 NOIN D, 1994, ENV POPULATION CHANG, P363 OKE TR, 1997, APPL CLIMATOLOGY, P273 PATZ JA, 1996, ADAPTING CLIMATE CHA, P440 WOODWARD A, IN PRESS CLIMATE RES NR 35 TC 4 J9 ENVIRON MONIT ASSESS BP 49 EP 64 PY 2000 PD MAR VL 61 IS 1 GA 300UB UT ISI:000086270100004 ER PT J AU MARSTON, SA TI NATURAL HAZARDS RESEARCH - TOWARDS A POLITICAL-ECONOMY PERSPECTIVE SO POLITICAL GEOGRAPHY QUARTERLY LA English DT Review C1 UNIV COLORADO,INST BEHAV SCI,BOULDER,CO 80309. RP MARSTON, SA, UNIV COLORADO,DEPT GEOG,BOULDER,CO 80309. CR BAIRD A, 1975, DRU11 U BRADF OCC PA BURTON I, 1962, 75 U CHIC DEP GEOGR BURTON I, 1964, NAT RESOUR J, V3, P412 BURTON I, 1978, ENV HAZARD, V1, P1 CANNON T, 1983, PROGR HUMAN GEOGRAPH, V7, P145 CARR C, 1982, APR ANN M ASS AM GEO DEAR M, 1978, ENV PLANNING A, V10, P19 DWORKIN J, 1974, NHRWP26 U COL I BEH HARVEY D, 1977, RADICAL GEOGRAPHY HEWITT K, 1976, NATURAL HIST MAY, P30 JEFFREY S, 1981, NHRWP40 U COL I BEH KATES R, 1970, NHRWP14 U COL I BEH MARSTON S, 1983, POLITICAL EC EARTHQU MEILLASSOUX C, 1974, REV AFRICAN POLTIICA, V1, P27 OKEEFE P, 1975, AFRICAN ENV, P31 OKEEFE P, 1976, NATURE, V260, P566 PALM R, 1981, ENV BEHAVIOR MONOGRA, V32 PALM R, 1983, J ENV SYSTEMS, V12, P341 SAYER A, 1979, GEOFORUM, V10, P19 SIMON H, 1957, MODELS MAN SOCIAL RA SMITH N, 1980, ANTIPODE, V12, P30 SMITH N, 1982, UNPUB PRODUCTION NAT THOMPSON S, 1982, 45 U COL I BEH SCI W TORRY WI, 1979, CAN GEOGR, V23, P368 WADDELL E, 1977, HUM ECOL, V5, P69 WALKER RA, 1979, GEOGR REV, V69, P113 WATTS MJ, 1979, THESIS U MICHIGAN AN WATTS MJ, 1981, UNPUB POVERTY THEORY WHITE G, 1945, 29 U CHIC DEP GEOGR WHITE G, 1974, NATURAL HAZARDS LOCA WHITE G, 1981, CANADIAN GEOGRAPHER, V25, P286 WILDEN A, 1979, WORLD CO TOWN WILLIAMS P, 1978, AREA, V10, P236 WISNER B, 1977, DISASTERS, V1, P47 NR 34 TC 3 J9 POLIT GEOGR QUART BP 339 EP 348 PY 1983 VL 2 IS 4 GA RJ675 UT ISI:A1983RJ67500006 ER PT J AU Neukum, C Hotzl, H TI Standardization of vulnerability maps SO ENVIRONMENTAL GEOLOGY LA English DT Article C1 Univ Karlsruhe, Dept Appl Geol, D-7500 Karlsruhe, Germany. RP Neukum, C, Univ Karlsruhe, Dept Appl Geol, Kaiserstr 12, D-7500 Karlsruhe, Germany. AB Groundwater vulnerability assessment schemes are used for the estimation of potential groundwater contamination at different scales and on different administrative levels. However, the term vulnerability is not standardized and the available methods are not able to give a unique assessment of vulnerability creating thus uncertainty in the interpretation and in further application concerning decision creation processes. To judge the information of vulnerability maps certainly and to value the general trends of vulnerability assessment of different methods, four different vulnerability methods of the parametric system group have been applied on a karst area in southwestern Germany to perform a comparative assessment and correlation of these vulnerability assessment methods, namely DRASTIC, PI, EPIK, and GLA. It is shown that by means of simple statistical considerations the first highly different vulnerability maps could be made more coherent after reclassification. The reclassified vulnerability assessments show a more consistent vulnerability distribution pattern and provide the possibility of area-wide validation of the maps as the chosen vulnerability classification is theoretically connected to the mean transit time of percolation water and is largely independent of the applied vulnerability assessment method. CR ALLER L, 1987, DRASTIC STANDARDIZED DOERFLIGER N, 1998, PRACTICAL GUIDE GROU GOGU RC, 2000, ENVIRON GEOL, V30, P549 GOLDSCHEIDER N, 2000, Z ANGEW GEOL, V463, P157 GOLDSCHEIDER N, 2001, 7 C LIM HYDR FISS ME, P167 GOLDSCHEIDER N, 2003, HYDROGEOL J, V13, P555 GOLDSCHEIDER, 2002, THESIS SCH ANGEW GEO HOTLING B, 1995, GEOL JB, V63, P5 ISAAK EH, 1989, INTRO APPL GEOSTATIS TENHAFF G, 1987, J GEOL LANDESAMT BAD, V29, P209 ZWAHLEN F, 2004, VULNERABILITY RISK M NR 11 TC 0 J9 ENVIRON GEOL BP 689 EP 694 PY 2007 PD JAN VL 51 IS 5 GA 119SJ UT ISI:000243033300004 ER PT J AU Antle, JM Capalbo, SM Elliott, ET Paustian, KH TI Adaptation, spatial heterogeneity, and the vulnerability of agricultural systems to climate change and CO2 fertilization: An integrated assessment approach SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 Montana State Univ, Dept Agr Econ & Econ, Bozeman, MT 59717 USA. Univ Nebraska, Sch Nat Resources Sci, Lincoln, NE 68583 USA. Colorado State Univ, Nat Resource Ecol Lab, Ft Collins, CO 80523 USA. RP Antle, JM, Montana State Univ, Dept Agr Econ & Econ, POB 172920, Bozeman, MT 59717 USA. AB In this paper we develop economic measures of vulnerability to climate change with and without adaptation in agricultural production systems. We implement these measures using coupled, site-specific ecosystem and economic simulation models. This modeling approach has two key features needed to study the response of agricultural production systems to climate change: it represents adaptation as an endogenous, non-marginal economic response to climate change; and it provides the capability to represent the spatial variability in bio-physical and economic conditions that interact with adaptive responses. We apply this approach to the dryland grain production systems of the Northern Plains region of the United States. The results support the hypothesis that the most adverse impacts on net returns distributions tend to occur in the areas with the poorest resource endowments and when mitigating effects of CO2 fertilization and adaptation are absent. We find that relative and absolute measures of vulnerability depend on complex interactions between climate change, CO2 level, adaptation, and economic conditions such as relative output prices. The relationship between relative vulnerability and resource endowments varies with assumptions about climate change, adaptation, and economic conditions. Vulnerability measured with respect to an absolute threshold is inversely related to resource endowments in all cases investigated. CR *IPCC WORK GROUP 2, 2001, CLIM CHANG 2001 IMP, P89 *NASS, 1999, PUBL EST DAT *SCS, 1981, USDA AGR HDB, V296, P156 *SCS, 1994, STAT SOIL GEOGR DAT ADAMS RM, 1990, NATURE, V345, P219 ADAMS RM, 1993, CONTEMP POLICY ISSUE, V11, P76 ADAMS RM, 1999, IMPACT CLIMATE CHANG, P18 ANTLE J, 2002, ENVIRON POLLUT, V116, P413 ANTLE JM, 1994, J AGR RESOUR ECON, V19, P1 ANTLE JM, 2001, AM J AGR ECON, V83, P389 ANTLE JM, 2001, EC POLICY REFORMS SU, P169 ANTLE JM, 2002, COMPREHENSIVE ASSESS, P243 CAMPBELL CA, 1997, SOIL ORGANIC MATTER, P317 DALY C, 1994, J APPL METEOROL, V33, P140 DARWIN RF, 1995, 703 USDA EC RES SERV DARWIN RF, 2000, ENVIRON MODEL ASSESS, V5, P157 EASTERLING WE, 1993, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V24, P23 EASTERLING WE, 2001, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V51, P173 HANSEN JW, 2000, AGR SYST, V65, P43 HOUGHTON JT, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995 KAISER HM, 1993, AM J AGR ECON, V75, P387 KAISER HM, 1999, GLOBAL ENV CHANGE AG, P221 LEWANDROWSKI JK, 1999, LAND ECON, V75, P39 LOVELAND TR, 1991, PHOTOGRAMM ENG REM S, V57, P1453 MELILLO JM, 1995, GLOBAL BIOGEOCHEM CY, V9, P407 METHERELL AK, 1993, 4 USDAARS GREAT PLAI OJIMA DS, 1993, WATER AIR SOIL POLL, V70, P643 PARTON WJ, 1994, SSSA SPEC PUBL, V39, P147 PARTON WJ, 1995, GLOBAL CHANGE BIOL, V1, P13 PAUSTIAN KH, 1996, PLANT SOIL, V187, P351 PAUSTIAN KH, 1997, SOIL PROCESSES CARBO, P459 PAUSTIAN KH, 1999, AGROECOSYSTEM BOUNDA ROSENZWEIG C, 1994, IMPLICATIONS CLIMATE SCHIMMELPFENNIG D, 1999, GLOBAL ENV CHANGE AG, P193 NR 34 TC 0 J9 CLIMATIC CHANGE BP 289 EP 315 PY 2004 PD JUN VL 64 IS 3 GA 816HR UT ISI:000221101500002 ER PT J AU Devereux, S Naeraa, T TI Drought and survival in rural Namibia SO JOURNAL OF SOUTHERN AFRICAN STUDIES LA English DT Article C1 CARL BRO INT,COPENHAGEN,DENMARK. UNIV NAMIBIA,SOCIAL SCI DIV,WINDHOEK,NAMIBIA. RP Devereux, S, UNIV SUSSEX,INST DEV STUDIES,BRIGHTON BN1 9RH,E SUSSEX,ENGLAND. AB The 1992 drought in southern Africa reduced national grain harvests to less than half of 1991 levels, caused substantial livestock mortality and severely compromised rural livelihoods. This paper disaggregates the impact of the drought on three vulnerable socioeconomic groups in Namibia - smallholder crop farmers, livestock rearers and commercial farmworkers. A modified entitlement framework is adopted: as well as examining entitlement-generating strategies (including credit, overlooked by Sen), the paper also considers 'indirect' entitlement-protecting strategies, such as dietary change, consumption rationing and demographic adjustments at the household level. Although Namibia did not experience a decline in aggregate food availability during the drought - commercial imports plus food aid offset the production shock - hunger and malnutrition did affect certain groups who suffered 'direct entitlement declines' (crop farmers), 'trade entitlement declines' (livestock rearers) or 'derived destitution' (farmworkers), and were unable to secure adequate food through alternative sources such as extended family support, credit or food aid. Namibia's experience confirms the dangers of supply-side analyses of food security. When the composition of a country's food supply changes dramatically, there are likely to be some groups whose food security is negatively affected because they cannot be guaranteed access to available food, even when supplies are sufficient in aggregate terms. CR *DESA, CONS UN SADC APP MID *DESA, 1992, CONS UN SADC APP MID *EWFIU, 1992, Q FOOD SEC B *EWFIU, 1993, CROP FOOD SEC B *EWFIU, 1993, Q FOOD SEC B *NAT PLANN COMM, 1991 POP HOUS CENS P *NDTF, MONTHL REP NAT DROUG, P10 *NDTF, PLAN OP DROUGHT EM *NDTF, 1992, MONTHL REP NAT DROUG *NISER, 1992, NAM HOUS FOOD SEC RE *UNICEF, 1991, SIT AN CHILDR WOM NA, P59 *WORLD BANK, 1992, NAM POV ALL SUST GRO BOWBRICK P, 1986, FOOD POLICY, V11, P105 CORBETT J, 1988, WORLD DEV, V16, P1099 DEVEREUX S, 1993, IDS BULL-I DEV STUD, V24, P52 DEVEREUX S, 1993, SSD RES REPORT, V7 DEWAAL A, 1989, FAMINE KILLS DARFUR DREZE J, 1989, HUNGER PUBLIC ACTION, P23 NAERAA T, 1993, NISER RES REPORT, V12 OLSZEWSKI J, 1994, DROUGHT IMPACTS PREP, P35 SEN AK, 1986, FOOD POLICY, V11, P125 SEN AK, 1988, HUNGER ENTITLEMENTS, P8 SEN AK, 1981, POVERTY FAMINES ESSA, V1, P1 SHIVUTE N, DROUGHT IMPACTS PREP, P181 STEWART F, 1982, DISASTERS, V6, P2 SWIFT JJ, 1989, IDS B, V20, P2 WOLDEMESKEL G, 1990, WORLD DEV, V18, P493 NR 27 TC 7 J9 J S AFR STUD BP 421 EP 440 PY 1996 PD SEP VL 22 IS 3 GA VG654 UT ISI:A1996VG65400005 ER PT J AU Haque, CE TI Risk assessment, emergency preparedness and response to hazards: The case of the 1997 Red River Valley flood, Canada SO NATURAL HAZARDS LA English DT Article C1 Brandon Univ, Dept Geog, Brandon, MB R7A 6A9, Canada. RP Haque, CE, Brandon Univ, Dept Geog, Brandon, MB R7A 6A9, Canada. AB The prevention and/or mitigation of flood disasters requires continual research, numerous capital investment decisions, and high-quality maintenance and modifications of flood-control structures. In addition, institutional and private preparedness is needed. The experience of flood-control in North America has shown mixed outcomes: while flood frequency has declined during the last few decades, the economic losses have continued to rise. Recent catastrophic floods have also been linked to major structural interventions in the region. The flood diversions may cause harmful effects upon the floodplain inhabitants by influencing flood levels in areas which are not normally flood-prone. The increasing vulnerability of the floodplain inhabitants poses new challenges and raises questions concerning the existing risk assessment methods, institutional preparedness and responses to disaster-related public emergencies, and local-level public involvement in flood mitigation efforts. In the context of the catastrophic 1997 floods of the Red River Valley, Manitoba, Canada, this research focuses on two aspects of flood-related emergency governance and management: (i) the functions and effectiveness of control structures, and (ii) the roles, responsibilities and effectiveness of legislative and other operational measures. The study concludes that the flood-loss mitigation measures, both in terms of effects of control structures and institutional interventions for emergency evacuation, were not fully effective for ensuring the well-being and satisfaction of floodplain inhabitants. Although organizational preparedness and mobilization to cope with the 1997 flood emergency was considerable, their success during the onset of the flood event was limited. Lack of communication and understanding between institutions, a reluctance to implement up-to-date regulations, and minimal public participation in the emergency decision-making process all contributed to the difficulties experienced by floodplain inhabitants. 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What the conceptual framework of material and energy flow accounting (MEFA) can offer SO LAND USE POLICY LA English DT Review C1 Inst Interdisciplinary Studies Austrian Univ, Dept Social Ecol, A-1070 Vienna, Austria. Inst Interdisciplinary Studies Austrian Univ, Dept Anal Sci & Culture, A-1070 Vienna, Austria. Univ Nat Resources & Appl Life Sci, Inst Soil Res, A-1080 Vienna, Austria. RP Haberl, H, Inst Interdisciplinary Studies Austrian Univ, Dept Social Ecol, Schottenfeldgasse 29, A-1070 Vienna, Austria. AB Sustainability science analyses society nature interaction on a variety of spatial and temporal scales. By explaining the link between sustainability and socio-economic material and energy flows as well as with colonization of ecosystems, this paper introduces a conceptual framework for empirical applications featured in other contributions to this special issue. The paper discusses how the proposed material and energy flow accounting (MEFA) framework supports such analyses. This framework is an integrated toolbox to account for socio-economic metabolism and colonization of natural processes; above all, land use. We argue that, even though it is at present impossible to define precision sustainability thresholds with respect to many material and energy flows, the MEFA framework is a valuable tool because it tracks these flows in a consistent manner for regions of any scale over time. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 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RP Gardner, JS, Univ Manitoba, Winnipeg, MB R3T 2N2, Canada. AB Hazardous processes, including floods, landslides, soil erosion, and debris flows, are common in the Himalaya. Deforestation has been held responsible for increasing risk from such hazards in the Indian context for more than a century. The deforestation-hazard linkage in the Kullu District of Himachal Pradesh is examined. Evidence suggests that the extent of forest cover has altered little over 150 years and that hazardous processes recur in much the same locations, with similar frequency and magnitude, except where road construction has increased slope instability. Nonetheless, population growth and economic development, especially since 1990, have increased vulnerability to hazards. 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RP Myers, N, Univ Oxford Green Coll, Upper Meadow,Old Rd, Oxford OX3 8SZ, England. AB There is a new phenomenon in the global arena: environmental refugees. These are people who can no longer gain a secure livelihood in their homelands because of drought, soil erosion, desertification, deforestation and other environmental problems, together with the associated problems of population pressures and profound poverty. In their desperation, these people feel they have no alternative but to seek sanctuary elsewhere, however hazardous the attempt. Not all of them have Red their countries, many being internally displaced. But all have abandoned their homelands on a semi-permanent if not permanent basis, with little hope of a foreseeable return. In 1995, environmental refugees totalled at least 25 million people, compared with 27 million traditional refugees (people fleeing political oppression, religious persecution and ethnic troubles). The total number of environmental refugees could well double by the year 2010, and increase steadily for a good while thereafter as growing numbers of impoverished people press ever harder on overloaded environments. When global warming takes hold, there could be as many as 200 million people overtaken by sea-level rise and coastal flooding, by disruptions of monsoon systems and other rainfall regimes, and by droughts of unprecedented severity and duration. 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RP Buttel, FH, Univ Wisconsin, Madison, WI 53706 USA. CR *FAO, 1998, STAT FOOD AGR 1998 *USDA, 1999, HOUS FOOD SEC US *WCED, 1987, OUR COMM FUT ANDERSON JR, 1988, SCI FOOD ARAGHI F, 1999, HUNGRY PROFIT ARAGHI FA, 1995, SOCIOL QUART, V36, P337 BARRACLOUGH S, 1991, END HUNGER BROWN LR, 1995, WHO WILL FEED CHINA BROWN LR, 1999, STATE WORLD 1999 BUSCH L, 1991, PLANTS POWER PROFIT BUTTEL FH, 1989, FOOD NATURAL RESOURC, P325 CLARK J, 1991, DEMOCRATIZING DEV DEOSE LF, 1998, WHOS HUNGARY DO WE K DEROSE LF, 1998, WHOS HUNGRY DO WE KN, P92 DREZE J, 1989, HUNGER PUBLIC ACTION DREZE J, 1995, POLITICAL EC HUNGER EBERSTADT N, 1995, TRUE STATE PLANET, P7 FARRINGTON J, 1993, RELUCTANT PARTNERS N FIELD JO, 1993, CHALLENGE FAMINE KATES RW, 1998, HUNGER REPORT 1988 KRIMSKY S, 1996, AGR BIOTECHNOLOGY EN LAPPE FM, 1998, WORLD HUNGER 12 MYTH MACKINTOSH M, 1989, GENDER CLASS RURAL T MACKINTOSH M, 1990, FOOD QUESTION PROFIT, P43 MCCOLLIM E, 2000, IN PRESS PROGRAM END MCCOLLIM E, 2000, PROGRAM END HUNGER MESSER E, 1998, WHOS HUNGARY DO WE K, P53 MILLMAN SR, 1998, WHOS HUNGARY HOW DO, P131 NELSON P, 1999, CHANGING POLITICS HU, P20 PINSTRUPANDERSE.P, 1997, WORLD FOOD SITUATION POPPENDIECK J, 1998, SWEET CHARITY RIKER JV, 1999, CHANGING POLITICS HU, P90 RIKER JV, 2000, IN PRESS PROGRAM END ROSSET P, 1999, POLICY BRIEF SEN AK, 1981, POVERTY FAMINES ESSA, V1, P1 SHAPOURI S, 1999, FOOD SECURITY ASSESS SIMON J, 1981, ULTIMATE RESOURCE SINGER M, 1999, ATLANTIC MONTHLY, V284, P22 SWIFT J, 1989, IDS B, V20, P8 UVIN P, 1996, HUNGER REPORT 1995, P1 VAUGHAN M, 1987, STORY AFRICAN FAMINE WATTS MJ, 1993, PROG HUM GEOG, V17, P43 YOUNG EM, 1997, WORLD HUNGER NR 43 TC 2 J9 CONTEMP SOCIOL BP 13 EP 27 PY 2000 PD JAN VL 29 IS 1 GA 300EV UT ISI:000086240600004 ER PT J AU Beck, MB TI Vulnerability of water quality in intensively developing urban watersheds SO ENVIRONMENTAL MODELLING & SOFTWARE LA English DT Article C1 Univ Georgia, Warnell Sch Forest Resources, Athens, GA 30602 USA. RP Beck, MB, Univ Georgia, Warnell Sch Forest Resources, Athens, GA 30602 USA. AB As cities grow they first impose substantial stress on their surrounding water environment, but then, as comprehensive wastewater infrastructure is installed. much of that stress is removed. It becomes possible to talk of rehabilitated watersheds. in which the river network, with its re-invigorated ecological health, passes through the urban landscape of (now) potentially intense polluting activities. Surface water quality becomes vulnerable to the transient pollution events arising from all manner of accidents. faults. failures, and contaminated-runoff events associated with the city's metabolism. including unreliability in the performance of its wastewater infra structure. The paper examines the role of High-Performance Integrated Control (H-PIC)-a combination of real-time control (RTC) and Integrated Urban Water Management (IUWM)-as an approach essential to managing water quality in such intensively developing watersheds. Rather than promoting H-PIC as the logical stage of operations that will follow planning. design, and construction in the life cycle of an infrastructure, discussion is set in the context of the sustainability of cities. in particular, in association with a measure of sustainability expressed in terms of the frequency spectrum of disturbances to which the aquatic environment is subject. In this more strategic setting, it is argued that control engineering (for achieving H-PIC) should be seen as having relevance beyond merely its conventional interpretation of closed-loop unit-process; automation, e.g., in opening up analyses of the stability and ecological resilience of an entire urban water infrastructure. It is acknowledged that "integration", as in IUWM and H-PIC, is likely to be realized in practice. because of the need for it expressed in the highest political circles of the sustainability debate. Given this, the paper examines the implications of the ongoing shift-from the technocracy of the past century to the democracy of stakeholder participation in the present century-for the more widespread use of information and communication technologies in managing water quality in urban water environments. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 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C, 1977, MAN ENV SYSTEMS, V7, P3 TRETTER F, 1976, HUMANOKOLOGISCHE BLA, P89 TRETTER F, 1976, INT M HUMAN ECOLOGY, V2, P475 TRIANDIS HC, 1973, ANNU REV PSYCHOL, V24, P355 TUAN YF, 1978, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V68, P363 ULRICH RS, 1977, MAN ENV SYSTEMS, V7, P279 UNWIN K, 1975, T I BRIT GEOGRAPHERS, V66, P130 VITAFINZI C, 1970, P PREHIST SOC, V36, P1 VONFOERSTER H, 1973, ENV DESIGN RES, V2, P35 VONUEXKULL J, 1920, THEORETISCHE BIOL WEICHHART P, 1975, GEOGRAPHIE UMBRUCHT WEICHHART P, 1979, GEOJOURNAL, V3, P523 WHYTE AVT, 1977, MAB5 TECHN NOT WICKER AW, 1972, BEHAV SCI, V17, P499 WOHLWILL JF, 1974, HUM ECOL, V2, P127 WOLFF WY, 1976, INT M HUMAN ECOLOGY, V1, P173 WRIGHT HF, 1950, METHODS PSYCHOLOGICA YOUNG GL, 1974, ADV ECOL RES, V8, P1 ZUBE EH, 1974, MAN ENV SYSTEMS, V4, P245 NR 133 TC 2 J9 MITT OSTERR GEOGR GES BP 49 EP 69 PY 1980 VL 122 IS 1 GA KE307 UT ISI:A1980KE30700002 ER PT J AU Kates, RW TI Cautionary tales: Adaptation and the global poor SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Article RP Kates, RW, RR1,Box 169B, Trenton, ME 04605 USA. AB Many who study global change, particularly from industrialized countries, are optimistic about the capacity of agriculture to successfully adapt to climate change. This optimism is based on historic trends in yield increases, on the spread of cropping systems far beyond their traditional agroecological boundaries, and the inherent flexibility of systems of international trade. Analysis of the success (or in rare cases, failure) of adaptation is by analogy-either to analogous socioeconomic or technological change or to short term environmental change. Such studies have been limited to industrialized countries. This paper uses five analogs from developing countries to examine potential adaptation to global climate change by poor people. Two are studies of comparative developing country responses to drought, flood, and tropical cyclone and to the Sahelian droughts of the 1970s and 80s that illustrate adaptations to climate and weather events:. Two address food production and rapid population growth in South Asia and Africa. Three types of adaptive social costs are considered: the direct costs of adaptation, the costs of adapting to the adaptations, and the costs of failing to adapt. A final analog reviews 30 village-level studies for the role that these social costs of adaptation play in perpetuating poverty and environmental degradation. CR BLAIKIE PM, 1994, RISK NATURAL HAZARDS, V1, P1 BOHLE HG, 1994, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V4, P37 BORLAUG NE, 1971, 35 PRB BURTON I, 1978, ENV HAZARD, V1, P1 BURTON I, 1997, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V20, P1 DALBY D, 1977, DROUGHT AFRICA, V2 DOWNING J, 1987, DROUGHT FAMINE AFRIC DOWNING TE, 1997, MITIGATION ADAPTATIO, V2, P19 EASTERLING WE, 1996, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V80, P1 FISCHER B, 1894, ERGEBNISSE PLANKTON, V4, P1 GLAESER B, 1987, GREEN REVOLUTION REV GLANTZ MH, 1987, PLANNING DROUGHT RED, P297 GLANTZ MH, 1988, SOC RESPONSES REGION GLANTZ MH, 1988, SOC RESPONSES REGION, P113 GRIFFIN KB, 1974, POLITICAL EC AGRARIA HAZELL PBR, 1991, GREEN REVOLUTION REC JIRSTROM M, 1996, WAKE GREEN REVOLUTIO KARITN MB, 1986, GREEN REVOLUTION INT KATES RW, 2 CLARK ENV DEV CTR KATES RW, 1980, 32 USAID OFF EV KATES RW, 1981, MAZINGIRA, V5, P72 KATES RW, 1991, RR912 BROWN U AS FEI KATES RW, 1992, ENVIRONMENT, V34, P4 LIPTON M, 1989, NEW SEEDS POOR PEOPL ROSENBERG NJ, 1993, INTEGRATED IMPACT AS SHIVA V, 1991, ECOLOGIST, V21, P57 SOMRVILLE CM, 1986, DROUGH AID SAHEL DEC TURNER BL, 1993, POPULATION GROWTH AG WATSON RT, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, V1, P1 WISNER BG, 1977, THESIS CLARK U WORCE NR 30 TC 6 J9 CLIMATIC CHANGE BP 5 EP 17 PY 2000 PD APR VL 45 IS 1 GA 323WX UT ISI:000087588900003 ER PT J AU Neuburger, M TI The vulnerability of smallholders in degraded areas. The political ecology of frontier processes in Brazil SO GEOGRAPHISCHE ZEITSCHRIFT LA German DT Article C1 Univ Tubingen, Inst Geog, Forsch Schwerpunkt Latein Amer, D-72074 Tubingen, Germany. RP Neuburger, M, Univ Tubingen, Inst Geog, Forsch Schwerpunkt Latein Amer, Holderlinstr 12, D-72074 Tubingen, Germany. AB The investigation of the interrelations between socio-economic and political structures on the one hand and ecological processes on the other is gaining increasing significance in geographic development research, especially in the field of political ecology. In the case of the study presented here, the concepts of vulnerability, fragility and criticality are used. In studies of rural areas, the so-called land manager represents the main focus of interest. This is due to the fact that the land manager forms the nexus between ecology and socio-economy at the local level. In this context, pioneer frontiers serve as refuge areas for displaced groups. However, with their incorporation into the national economic and social structures this function is rapidly lost again. In this paper, the decisive factors and processes of the development of the frontier are investigated by taking a case-study from the Brazilian Mid-West as an example. Ecological processes of degradation in the areas of the pioneer frontiers of the Amazon region can be understood as the result of global, national and regional-local structures due to which particularly vulnerable groups - in this case peasants - are displaced into ecologically fragile areas in the course of time. The survival-oriented exploitation of the natural resources in this refuge area corresponds with the peasants' logic of action. This logic, which must be seen as a survival strategy, is based on decisions governed by vulnerability and constraints in the actual everyday situation. CR BLAIKIE PM, 1987, LAND DEGRADATION SOC BLAIKIE PM, 1994, RISK NATURAL HAZARDS, V1, P1 BOHLE HG, 1998, RUNDBRIEF GEOGRAPHIE, V149, P13 BRYANT RL, 1997, 3 WORLD POLITICAL EC COY M, 1993, TUBINGER BERTRAGE GE, P9 COY M, 1999, FRENTES PIONEIRAS AM DEAN W, 1996, FERRO FOGO HIST DEVA FERNANDES B, 1996, MST FORMACAO TERRITO GEIST H, 1992, ERDE, V123, P283 GOUDIE A, 1994, MENSCH UMWELT EINFUH GUIDON N, 1992, HIST INDIOS BRASIL S, P37 HALL A, 1997, SUSTAINING AMAZONIA HEWITT K, 1997, REGIONS RISK GEOGRAP, V1, P1 HOLLING CS, 1980, INT SERIES APPL SYST, V3 KASPERSON RE, 1995, REGIONS RISK COMP TH, P1 KOHLHEPP G, 1979, AGRARREFORM DRITTEN, P471 KOHLHEPP G, 1987, AMAZONIEN PROBLEMRAU KOHLHEPP G, 1990, RAUMLICHE STRUKTUR B, P45 LUCKER R, 1986, TUBINGER BEITRAGE GE, P2 MANSHARD W, 1995, UMWELT ENTWICKLUNG T MARGOLIS M, 1977, AM ETHNOL, V4, P42 MARTINS J, 1990, OS CAMPONESES POLITI MARTINS JD, 1997, FRONTEIRA DEGRADACO PAINTER M, 1995, SOCIAL CAUSES ENV DE PEET R, 1996, LIBERATION ECOLOGIES REMPPIS M, 1998, TUBINGER BEITRAGE GE, V119, P87 ROOSEVELT A, 1992, HIST INDIOS BRASIL, P53 SCHMINK M, 1986, LANDS RISK 3 WORLD L, P38 SCHMINK M, 1992, CONTESTED FRONTIERS WOORTMANN EF, 1997, TRABALHO TERRA LOGIC NR 30 TC 0 J9 GEOGR Z BP 21 EP 35 PY 2000 VL 88 IS 1 GA 382LD UT ISI:000165823000002 ER PT J AU Malhi, Y Phillips, OL TI Tropical forests and global atmospheric change: a synthesis SO PHILOSOPHICAL TRANSACTIONS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY OF LONDON SERIES B-BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES LA English DT Article C1 Univ Leeds, Sch Geog, Earth & Biosphere Inst, Leeds LS2 9JT, W Yorkshire, England. Univ Edinburgh, Sch Geosci, Edinburgh EH9 3JU, Midlothian, Scotland. RP Phillips, OL, Univ Leeds, Sch Geog, Earth & Biosphere Inst, Leeds LS2 9JT, W Yorkshire, England. AB We present a personal perspective on the highlights of the Theme Issue 'Tropical forests and global atmospheric change'. We highlight the key findings on the contemporary rate of climatic change in the tropics, the evidence-gained from field studies-of large-scale and rapid change in the dynamics and biomass of old-growth forests, and evidence of how climate change and fragmentation can interact to increase the vulnerability of plants and animals to fires. A range of opinions exists concerning the possible cause of these observed changes, but examination of the spatial 'fingerprint' of observed change may help to identify the driving mechanism(s). Studies of changes in tropical forest regions since the last glacial maximum show the sensitivity of species composition and ecology to atmospheric changes. Model studies of change in forest vegetation highlight the potential importance of temperature or drought thresholds that could lead to substantial forest decline in the near future. During the coming century, the Earth's remaining tropical forests face the combined pressures of direct human impacts and a climatic and atmospheric situation not experienced for at least 20 million years. Understanding and monitoring of their response to this atmospheric change are essential if we are to maximize their conservation options. CR *IPCC, 2001, CLIM CHANG 2001 SCI BAKER TR, 2004, PHILOS T ROY SOC B, V359, P353 BARLOW J, 2004, PHILOS T ROY SOC B, V359, P367 BEERLING DJ, 2000, PALAEOGEOGR PALAEOCL, V161, P395 CHAMBERS JQ, 2004, PHILOS T ROY SOC B, V359, P463 CHAVE J, 2004, PHILOS T ROY SOC B, V359, P409 CLARK DA, 2004, PHILOS T ROY SOC B, V359, P477 COWLING SA, 2004, PHILOS T ROY SOC B, V359, P539 CRAMER W, 2004, PHILOS T ROY SOC B, V359, P331 CRUTZEN PJ, 2002, NATURE, V415, P23 KORNER C, 2004, PHILOS T ROY SOC B, V359, P493 LAURANCE WF, 2004, PHILOS T ROY SOC B, V359, P345 LEWIS SL, 2004, PHILOS T ROY SOC B, V359, P421 LEWIS SL, 2004, PHILOS T ROY SOC B, V359, P437 MALHI Y, 2002, J VEG SCI, V13, P439 MALHI Y, 2004, PHILOS T ROY SOC B, V359, P311 MAYLE FE, 2004, PHILOS T ROY SOC B, V359, P499 MORLEY RJ, 2000, ORIGIN EVOLUTION TRO NEMANI RR, 2003, SCIENCE, V300, P1560 PENNINGTON RT, 2004, PHILOS T ROY SOC B, V359, P515 PHILLIPS OL, 1994, SCIENCE, V263, P954 PHILLIPS OL, 1998, SCIENCE, V282, P439 PHILLIPS OL, 2002, NATURE, V418, P770 PHILLIPS OL, 2004, PHILOS T ROY SOC B, V359, P381 PRENTICE IC, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, P183 WEISHAMPEL JF, 2001, GLOBAL ECOL BIOGEOGR, V10, P389 WING SL, 2003, GSA SPEC PAP, V369, P425 ZACHOS JC, 2003, SCIENCE, V302, P1551 NR 28 TC 0 J9 PHIL TRANS ROY SOC LONDON B BP 549 EP 555 PY 2004 PD MAR 29 VL 359 IS 1443 GA 808BR UT ISI:000220545100017 ER PT J AU Loucks, DP TI Quantifying trends in system sustainability SO HYDROLOGICAL SCIENCES JOURNAL-JOURNAL DES SCIENCES HYDROLOGIQUES LA English DT Article RP Loucks, DP, CORNELL UNIV,ITHACA,NY 14853. AB This paper focuses on the measurement of the relative sustainability of renewable water resource systems. Being able to quantify sustainability makes it possible to compare alternative plans and policies, and to include sustainability as one of the multiple objectives to be considered when making decisions regarding the design and operation of these systems. Commonly used measures of reliability, resilience and vulnerability, based on subjective judgements concerning what is acceptable or unacceptable with respect to multiple system performance indicators, are combined into an index and used as a measure of changes in relative system sustainability over time. CR *UN, 1991, UNDP S DELFT 3 5 JUN *WCED, 1987, OUR COMM FUT BRUNDTL BAAN JA, 1994, P INT UNESCO S WAT R, V4, P63 FALKENMARK M, 1988, STOCKHOLM STUDIES NA, V1, P71 GOODLAND R, 1991, 46 WORLD BANK NORGAARD RB, 1991, ECOLOGICAL EC SCI MA, P88 PEZZEY J, 1992, 2 WORLD BANK TOMAN MA, 1991, ENR19105 NR 8 TC 12 J9 HYDROLOG SCI J BP 513 EP 530 PY 1997 PD AUG VL 42 IS 4 GA XP220 UT ISI:A1997XP22000007 ER PT J AU Rotter, R Van de Geijn, SC TI Climate change effects on plant growth, crop yield and livestock SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Review C1 DLO, Res Inst Agrobiol & Soil Fertil, NL-6700 AA Wageningen, Netherlands. DLO, Winand Staring Ctr Integrated Land Soil, NL-6700 AC Wageningen, Netherlands. Int Rice Res Inst, Manila 1099, Philippines. RP Van de Geijn, SC, DLO, Res Inst Agrobiol & Soil Fertil, POB 14, NL-6700 AA Wageningen, Netherlands. AB A review is given of the state of knowledge in the field of assessing climate change impacts on agricultural crops and livestock. Starting from the basic processes controlling plant growth and development, the possible impacts and interactions of climatic and other biophysical variables in different agro-environments are highlighted. Qualitative and quantitative estimations of shifts in biomass production and water relations, inter-plant competition and crop species adaptability are discussed. Special attention is given to the problems encountered when scaling up physiological responses at the leaf- and plant level to yield estimates at regional to global levels by using crop simulation models in combination with geo-referenced, agro-ecological databases. Some non-linear crop responses to environmental changes and their relations to adaptability and vulnerability of agro-ecosystems are discussed. 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WILKERSON GG, 1989, CROP SCI, V29, P721 WILLIAMS JR, 1984, T ASAE, V27, P129 WILSON JR, 1982, NUTR LIMITS ANIMAL P, P111 WOLF J, 1993, EUR J AGRON, V2, P281 WOLF J, 1995, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V29, P229 WOLFE DW, 1993, AGR DIMENSIONS GLOBA, P153 WONG SC, 1979, OECOLOGIA BERL, V44, P68 WOODWARD FI, 1993, VEGETATION DYNAMICS, P71 YOSHIDA S, 1981, FUNDAMENTALS RICE CR NR 178 TC 6 J9 CLIMATIC CHANGE BP 651 EP 681 PY 1999 PD DEC VL 43 IS 4 GA 248KD UT ISI:000083272900002 ER PT J AU Kates, RW Parris, TM TI Long-term trends and a sustainability transition SO PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA LA English DT Article C1 ISciences, LLC, Jamaica Plain, MA 02130 USA. RP Kates, RW, 33 Popple Point, Trenton, ME 04605 USA. AB How do long-term global trends affect a transition to sustainability? We emphasize the "multitrend" nature of 10 classes of trends, which makes them complex, contradictory, and often poorly understood. Each class includes trends that make a sustainability transition more feasible as well as trends that make it more difficult. Taken in their entirety, they serve as a checklist for the consideration of global trends that impact place-based sustainability studies. 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Univ Chicago, Ctr Adv Radiat Sources, Chicago, IL 60637 USA. RP Smith, JV, Univ Chicago, Dept Geophys Sci, 5734 S Ellis Ave, Chicago, IL 60637 USA. AB Dangers from natural hazards have been characterized quantitatively by national and international committees of geoscientists based on technical advances in geochemistry and geophysics (sensu lato). The current status of knowledge on natural hazards is reviewed with particular emphasis on comet/asteroid impact, earthquakes, and volcanoes. All these hazards are survivable by the world's population if appropriate measures are taken over the next century and millennium. Ideas for mitigation include: general use of weathered volcanic ash and power-station fly ash to make pozzolana cement for strengthening buildings, and stabilizing weak ground and hillsides prone to slumping; long-term storage of grains under nitrogen, together with other techniques for maintaining viability of stored food; drilling of tunnels under major cities to facilitate traffic flow, and for protection against impact of bolides and bombs; design of sea and lake fronts to guard against tsunamis from earthquakes and asteroid impact. The food-storage proposals could be tailored to help farmers obtain a regular income while producing a higher crop yield than needed for current food supply. The land modification plans would provide technical challenges and new business activities for civil engineers, lawyers, real-estate professionals, and city planners. It is truly tragic that genuine ideas for mitigation of natural hazards are being implemented at a snail's pace while funding for weapons nourishes around much of the world. The early development of my thinking on hazards is an example of the typical disconnection between "scientific expertise" and actual day-to-day planning decisions. As a farmer's boy interested in civil engineering and land planning in an ecological context, I summarize old and new ideas in an effort to bridge this disconnection, and facilitate the planned transfer of funding from weapons to actions that enhance human well being. Because the actions are international in their basic nature and ecological in character, I hope that they will help to generate a feeling of "One world that must be loved, not abused." We belong to one biological species, Homo supposedly sapiens sapiens. We must progress beyond tribal, ethnic, and other divisive matters associated with wars and civilian conflicts. The rich must help the poor. Geology and civil engineering can provide important worldwide cooperative connections. 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V350, P216 WILLIAMS H, 1979, VOLCANOLOGY WILSON CJN, 1997, NATURE, V385, P306 WILSON EK, 1997, CHEM ENG NEWS 0929, P30 WIND HG, 1987, IMPACT SEA LVEL RISE WOOD CA, 1984, T AM GEOPHYS UNION E, V65, P410 WOODS AW, 1995, REV GEOPHYS, V33, P495 WRIGHT TL, 2000, T AM GEOPHYS UNION E, V81, P101 WRIGHT TL, 2000, T AM GEOPHYS UNION E, V81, P106 YAROSHINSKAYA A, 1995, CHERNOBYL FORBIDDEN YASHINSKY M, 1998, 1552B US GEOL SURV YEATS RS, 1997, GEOLOGY EARTHQUAKES YEOMANS D, 2000, NATURE, V404, P829 YEOMANS DK, 1991, COMETS CHRONOLOGICAL YOUNG S, 1997, EOS T AM GEOPHYS UN, V78, P401 YOUNG S, 1999, GSA TODAY, V9, P1 YOUNG SR, 1997, SCIENCE, V276, P371 ZEN E, 2000, GSA TODAY, V8, P8 ZHAO DP, 1996, SCIENCE, V274, P1891 ZIELINSKI GA, 1996, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V23, P837 ZOLLO A, 1996, SCIENCE, V274, P592 ZREDAGOSTYNSKA G, 1997, J GEOPHYS RES-SOL EA, V102, P15039 NR 643 TC 2 J9 INT GEOL REV BP 617 EP 656 PY 2000 PD JUL VL 42 IS 7 GA 342VW UT ISI:000088666700003 ER PT J AU Lambin, EF TI Conditions for 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RP Lambin, EF, Univ Louvain, Dept Geog, Pl Louis Pasteur 3, B-1348 Louvain, Belgium. CR ANDERIES JM, 2004, ECOL SOC, V9, P18 BALMFORD A, 2002, SCIENCE, V297, P950 BERKES F, 2003, NAVIGATING SOCIAL EC, V1, P1 BERKHOUT F, 2002, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V12, P1 BLAIKIE P, 1987, LAND DEGRADATION SOC BOSERUP E, 1965, CONDITIONS AGR GROWT BRESSERS JTA, 2004, GOVERNANCE SUSTAINAB, P284 CLARK WC, 2003, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V100, P8059 DIAMOND J, 1994, P AM PHILOS SOC, V138, P363 DIAMOND J, 2005, COLLAPSE SOC CHOOSE DIETZ T, 2003, SCIENCE, V302, P1907 GEELS F, 2002, RES POLICY, V3, P1257 GEIST HJ, 2002, BIOSCIENCE, V52, P143 GEIST HJ, 2004, BIOSCIENCE, V54, P817 GORDON J, 2001, INDICATORS DECISION GOWDY J, 2005, GLOBAL ENV CHANGE GUNDERSON LH, 2002, PANARCHY UNDERSTANDI, V1, P1 HOLLING CS, 1973, ANNUAL REV ECOLOGY S, V4, P1 JANSSEN MA, 2004, ECOL SOC, V9, P6 KASPERSON JX, 1995, REGIONS RISK, V1, P1 MATHER AS, 2001, AGR TECHNOLOGIES TRO, P35 MRATENS P, 2002, TRANSITIONS GLOBALIS MYERS N, 2001, PERVERSE SUBSIDIES T OSTROM E, 1999, SCIENCE, V284, P278 RASKIN P, 2002, GREAT TRANSITION PRO REDMAN CL, 1999, HUMAN IMPACT ANCIENT RINDOS D, 1984, ORIGINS AGR EVOLUTIO ROTMANS J, 2001, J FUTURE STUDIES STR, V3, P1 SCHEFFER M, 2003, ECOSYSTEMS, V3, P493 TAINTER JA, 1988, COLLAPSE COMPLEX SOC TURNER BL, 2003, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V100, P8074 VELLINGA P, 1999, 12 IHDP WEISS H, 2001, SCIENCE, V291, P609 WILKINSON RG, 1973, POVERTY PROGR ECOLOG YOUNG OR, 2002, I DIMENSIONS ENV CHA NR 35 TC 3 J9 GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANGE BP 177 EP 180 PY 2005 PD OCT VL 15 IS 3 GA 960JC UT ISI:000231585500001 ER PT B AU Timmerman, P TI Vulnerability, Resilience and the Collapse of Society SO ENV MONOGRAPH LA English DT Book C1 University of Toronto, Institute of Environmental Studies, Toronto, Canada RP AB The impetus for this paper came from two sources. First, the concern for the development of a competent social component in the World Climate Program being undertaken by the World Meteorological Organization led to the following declaration by the World Climate Conference of one main objective of their Impact Study Program: Determining the characteristics of human societies at different levels of development and in different natural environments which make them either specially vulnerable or specially resilient to climatic variability and change and which also permit them to take advantage of the opportunities posed by such changes (WMO 1980). Admirable as this objective is, it is difficult not to see it as partaking in the general vagueness which attends much of climatic impact assessment at the present time, and which has been admirably described by Kates (1980): The underlying assumptions of models are poorly defined. Studies with widely varying subject matter are characterized under a common rubric of impact study. Techniques are poorly developed methodologically and are weakly integrated beyond the discipline in which they were first initiated. For example, it is hard to say just what “vulnerability” and ”resilience” are. One source of this paper, then, was a concern that some of the concepts coming to the forefront in the fast growing subject of climatic impact assessment. were under-examined. Some discussion of terms, concepts, and models - those often unconscious shapers of research frameworks - seemed advisable. Munn (1979) makes the distinction between a climate impact assessment and a climate impact study, of which the first is a policy-shaping document, and the second a research or applied study. It is worth taking steps to ensure that we are not falling between both these categories, and are instead about to embark on policy disguised as research. The second source for this paper was the particular concernofthe Atmospheric Environment Service (Environment Canada) that the Canadian Climate Program should be as effective as possible. Atmospheric Environment has a long and enlightened tradition of concern for climatic impacts and the welfare of the users of the meteorological imformation it provides. To this end, it has provided funding for projects at the Institute for Environmental Studies and elsewhere which attempt to bridge the gap between the technical and the social use of climatic information. In the present instance, it will be noted that, apart from a predominance of references to instances of climatic resilience and vulnerability, and the discussion in the last section of this paper, there is little here of direct or immediate relevance to the daily requirements of AES. On the one hand, one could ascribe this to the typical result of much of social science (to the despair of the “hard” scientist), which inevitably concludes that the problem is itself problematic; on the other, it could be that what is presented here is only one part of an immensely difficult attempt to say anything worthwhile about the relationship between climate and society - the charting of the interactions between a system indeterminate through sheer complexity, and a system indeterminate through sheer complexity and sheer humanity. CR BURTON I, 1978, ENV HAZARD, V1, P1 HOLLING CS, 1973, ANNUAL REV ECOLOGY S, V4, P1 RAPPAPORT RA, 1977, EVOLUTION SOCIAL SYS, V1, P49 WHITE GF, 1974, NATURAL HAZARDS LOCA, V1, P1 NR 3 TC 0 BP 1 EP 45 PY 1981 VL 1 IS 1 ER PT J AU Maynard, K Royer, JF TI Effects of "realistic" land-cover change on a greenhouse-warmed African climate SO CLIMATE DYNAMICS LA English DT Article C1 Meteo France, CNRM, F-31057 Toulouse 1, France. RP Maynard, K, Meteo France, CNRM, 42 Ave G Coriolis, F-31057 Toulouse 1, France. AB The primary goal of this investigation is to focus on a "realistic" scenario for simulating impacts on regional African climate of future deforestation in a greenhouse-warmed world. Combined effects of plausible land-cover change and greenhouse warming are assessed by 'time-slice' simulations with an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) for the middle of the twenty first century. Three "time-slice" integrations have been performed with the ARPEGE-Climat AGCM incorporating a zooming technique to achieve a resolution of about 100 km over Africa. A control run for the current climate is forced by observed climatological sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and the observed vegetation distribution is specified from a new vegetation database, in order to improve the geographical distribution and properties of the vegetation cover. Future SST changes are derived from a transient coupled atmosphere-ocean simulation for scenario B2 of the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Future vegetation changes are specified from a simulation of scenario B2 with the Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment (IMAGE) developed at the National Institute of Public Health and the Environment in the Netherlands (RIVM). The results show that land surface processes can locally modulate greenhouse warming effects for African climate, with reductions of surface transpiration and small increases of surface temperature. Deforestation of tropical Africa has overall only a marginal effect on precipitation because of a compensatory increase in moisture convergence. Energy budget analyses show that increases in surface temperature are produced both by increases of greenhouse gases (GHG) concentration from the increase in downward atmospheric longwave radiation, and by African tropical deforestation from the resulting reduction in transpiration. This study indicates that realistic land-use changes, though of smaller amplitude than greenhouse gas forcing, may have a small regional effect in projections of future climate. 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Minist Water Conservancy & Power, Chengdu 610041, Peoples R China. Univ Elect Sci & Technol China, Sch Management, Chengdu 610054, Peoples R China. RP Fang, YP, Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Mt Hazards & Environm, Chengdu 610041, Peoples R China. AB Mountain disaster occurrence has a close relationship with human activities. It is the human activity that aggravates the mountain disasters and environment deterioration. Therefore, during the process of social and economic development, regulating human behaviour, reasonably utilizing and protecting natural resources and environment by means of controlling the human approach, i.e. industrial economy, regional economy allocation, river basin economy, scientific technology and population resettlement, are important approaches to the prevention and management of mountain disasters. The analysis of several cases in China shows that effective combination of civil engineering measures, bio-engineering measures and human behaviour could play an important role in ensuring mountain disaster prevention and environmental sustainable development. However, in the long run, prevention of mountain disasters and environmental deterioration is just regulating management of the human effect and human behaviour, but not civil engineering and bio-engineering measures. In 1994, the State Council, China, approved 'China 21st Agenda', that regarded disaster prevention and mitigation as important national policies with the goals of ensuring country, society, economy development, and confirmed decreasing nature human disaster losses as the total aim and action plan of country disaster prevention and mitigation management. CR *STAT ENV PROT BUR, 1991, EC CHIN, P45 *STAT ENV PROT BUR, 1995, ECOAGR CULT PATT TEC, P87 BLAIKIE PT, 1994, RISK NATURAL HAZARDS FANG YP, 2001, ECOLOGICAL EC, V3, P21 FANG YP, 2001, J MOUNTAIN SCI, V19, P75 GAO WX, 1997, NATURAL HAZARDS HIST LI XK, 1996, MOUNTAIN RES, V13, P7 PAUDEL GS, ENV MANAGEMENT, V28, P789 TANG BX, 1996, MOUNTAIN RES, V14, P103 WANG KL, 1999, J MOUNTIAN SCI, V2, P128 WHITE GF, 1973, DIRECTIONS GEOGRAPHY WU JS, 1997, MOUNTAIN HAZARDS PRE, P1 YANG KZ, 1991, HUMAN GEOGRAPHY, V2, P13 ZHONG DL, 1997, MOUNTAIN RESOURCE EX NR 14 TC 0 J9 INT J SUSTAIN DEV WORLD ECOL BP 169 EP 180 PY 2004 PD JUN VL 11 IS 2 GA 844KJ UT ISI:000223156700005 ER PT J AU Araujo, JN Mackinson, S Stanford, RJ Sims, DW Southward, AJ Hawkins, SJ Ellis, JR Hart, PJB TI Modelling food web interactions, variation in plankton production, and fisheries in the western English Channel ecosystem SO MARINE ECOLOGY-PROGRESS SERIES LA English DT Article C1 Univ Leicester, Dept Biol, Leicester LE1 7RH, Leics, England. Fisheries Lab, CEFAS, Lowestoft NR33 0HT, Suffolk, England. Devon Wildlife Trust, Exeter EX4 4DA, Devon, England. Marine Biol Assoc United Kingdom Lab, Plymouth PL1 2PB, Devon, England. RP Hart, PJB, Univ Leicester, Dept Biol, Leicester LE1 7RH, Leics, England. AB To explore the contributions that fishing, trophic interactions and plankton production make to explanations of the observed variation of higher trophic (principally fish) levels in the western English Channel ecosystem, Ecosim simulations were run from 1973 to 1999 using the most complete data set yet assembled. The results indicate that a bottom-up mechanism plays an important role in the system production. Inclusion of a primary producer biomass forcing term, estimated from empirical data, improved the goodness of fit of the model estimates to the available biomass data by about 25% compared to fitting using only the series of fishing mortalities. Model fitting was further improved by changing the so-called vulnerability parameters, causing an overall improvement of 62% in explained variation. Incorporating the new vulnerability values, the model was used to estimate a primary production anomaly function to replace the primary producer biomass forcing in driving the model simulations. In this scenario, the model estimated a series of values for primary producer abundance that approximated the empirical data, but gave lower estimates than were observed towards the end of the period. This version also gave a better fitting to the zooplankton abundance data and generally improved the fitting to all functional groups. CR *ICES, 1979, REP HOM WORK GROUP I *ICES, 1999, REP WORK GROUP ASS M *ICES, 2000, REP HERR ASS WORK GR *ICES, 2000, REP WORK GROUP ASS D *ICES, 2000, REP WORK GROUP ASS S *ICES, 2001, ICES FISH STAT CATCH *ICES, 2005, REP WORK GROUP ASS D ARAUJO JN, 2005, ECOPATH MODEL W ENGL AYDIN KY, 2004, AFR J MAR SCI, V26, P289 BARTON AD, 2003, PROG OCEANOGR, V58, P337 BEAUGRAND G, 2003, NATURE, V426, P661 BRADBURY IR, 2001, FISH OCEANOGR, V10, P342 CHRISTENSEN V, 2004, ECOL MODEL, V172, P109 CHRISTENSEN V, 2004, ECOPATH ECOSIM USERS, V12 CURY P, 2003, RESPONSIBLE FISHERIE, P103 CUSHING DH, 1995, POPULATION PRODUCTIO DIAZ HF, 2002, WMO B, V51, P377 EDWARDS M, 2001, ICES J MAR SCI, V58, P39 FOX CJ, 2000, J SEA RES, V44, P159 FULTON EA, 2004, AFR J MAR SCI, V26, P219 GENNER MJ, 2004, P ROY SOC LOND B BIO, V271, P655 HARVEY CJ, 2003, ICES J MAR SCI, V60, P939 HAWKINS SJ, 2003, SCI TOTAL ENVIRON, V310, P245 HENDERSON PA, 1994, NETH J SEA RES, V32, P321 KOSTER FW, 2003, SCI MAR S1, V67, P129 LOCKWOOD SJ, 1988, MACKEREL ITS BIOL AS MANN ME, 2002, SCIENCE, V297, P1481 PAWSON MG, 1995, 99 MIN AGR FISH FOOD PLAGANYI EE, 2004, AFR J MAR SCI, V26, P261 PLANQUE B, 1999, CAN J FISH AQUAT SCI, V56, P2069 REID PC, 2003, PROG OCEANOGR, V58, P117 RICHARDSON AJ, 2004, SCIENCE, V305, P1609 RIJNSDORP AD, 1992, NETH J SEA RES, V29, U402 SHANNON LJ, 2004, AFR J MAR SCI, V26, P179 SOUTHWARD AJ, 1988, J MAR BIOL ASSOC UK, V68, P423 SOUTHWARD AJ, 1995, J THERM BIOL, V20, P127 SOUTHWARD AJ, 2005, ADV MAR BIOL, V47, P1 STANFORD RJ, 2004, ECOSYSTEM SIMULATION, P12 ULRICH C, 2000, THESIS ECOL NATL SUP ULRICH C, 2002, FISH RES, V58, P379 WALTERS CJ, 2000, ECOSYSTEMS, V3, P70 WALTERS CJ, 2004, FISHERIES ECOLOGY MA WARE DM, 2005, SCIENCE, V308, P1280 NR 43 TC 0 J9 MAR ECOL-PROGR SER BP 175 EP 187 PY 2006 VL 309 GA 035RU UT ISI:000237020200014 ER PT J AU Parkes, M Panelli, R Weinstein, P TI Converging paradigms for environmental health theory and practice SO ENVIRONMENTAL HEALTH PERSPECTIVES LA English DT Editorial Material C1 Univ Otago, Dept Publ Hlth, Wellington Sch Med & Hlth Sci, Wellington, New Zealand. Univ Otago, Dept Geog, Dunedin, New Zealand. RP Parkes, M, Univ Hawaii, Div Ecol & Hlth, John A Burns Sch Med, 1960 East West Rd, Honolulu, HI 96822 USA. AB Converging themes from the fields of environmental health, ecology and health, and human ecology highlight opportunities for innovation and advancement in environmental health theory and practice. In this commentary we outline the role of research and applied programs that integrate biophysical and social sciences with environmental health practice in order to address deficiencies in each field when taken on its own. New opportunities for environmental health protection and promotion are outlined based on the three converging themes: integrated approaches to research and policy, methodological acknowledgment of the synergies between the social and biophysical environments, and incorporation of core ecosystem principles into research and practice. These converging themes are discussed in relation to their implications for new types of intervention to achieve health gains across different spatial and temporal scales at the interface between biophysical and social environments. 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Landcare Res, Lincoln, New Zealand. Landcare Res, Hamilton, New Zealand. RP Stephens, PR, Landcare Res, Private Bag 11052, Palmerston North, New Zealand. AB New Zealand is highly dependent on its soil resource for continued agricultural production. To avoid depleting this resource, there is a need to identify soils and associated land management practices where there is a risk of soil degradation. Environmental integrity and ecosystem services also need to be maintained. Accordingly, to ensure sustainable production, the on- and off site environmental impacts of land management need to be identified and managed. We developed a structural vulnerability index for New Zealand soils. This index ranks soils according to their inherent susceptibility to physical degradation when used for agricultural (pasture, forestry and cropping) purposes. We also developed a rule-based model to assess soil compaction vulnerability by characterising the combined effects of resistance and resilience. Other soil attributes have been appraised using seven chemical, physical and biological indicators of soil quality. These indicators have been applied in a nation-wide project involving data collection from over 500 sites for a range of land uses. These soil quality data can be interpreted via the World Wide Web - through the interactive decision-support tool SINDI. The land-use impact model is a framework to assess agricultural land management and environmental sustainability, and may be applied to land units at any scale. Using land resource data and information the model explicitly identifies hazards to land productivity and environmental integrity. It utilises qualitative expert and local knowledge and quantitative model-based evaluations to assess the potential environmental impacts of land-management practices. The model is linked to a geographic information system (GIS), allowing model outputs, such as the environmental impacts of site-specific best management practices, to be identified in a spatially explicit manner. The model has been tested in New Zealand in an area of pastoral land use. Advantages of this risk identification model include: utilising current knowledge of the causes and effects of land-management practices on soil degradation; linking land management practice to both on- and off-site environmental consequences; identifying important gaps in local knowledge; and providing spatially explicit information on the environmental impact of land-management practices. CR *FAO, 1976, FAO SOILS B, V32 *NZ MIN AGR FOR, 1998, SIT OUTL NZ AGR FOR *NZMFE, 1997, ENV PERF IND PROP AI BARRINGER JRF, 1998, P 10 ANN C SPAT INF, P25 DORAN JW, 1994, DEFINING SOIL QUALIT, P3 DORAN JW, 1996, METHODS ASSESSING SO, P25 EYLES GO, 1992, P 5 AUSTR SOIL CONSE, V2, P76 HAIR JF, 1995, MULTIVARIATE DATA AN HARRIS RF, 1994, DEFINING ASSESSING S, P23 HEWITT AE, 1997, AUST J SOIL RES, V35, P461 HEWITT AE, 2002, P SOIL QUAL SUST LAN, P127 LARSON WE, 1994, DEFINING SOIL QUALIT, P37 LILBURNE L, 2000, ENV SOFTWARE SYSTEMS LILBURNE L, 2002, P SOIL QUAL SUST LAN, P41 MOLLOY L, 1998, SOILS NZ LANDSCAPE L PARFITT RL, 2002, P SOIL QUAL SUST LAN, P82 SCHIPPER LA, 2000, SOIL SCI SOC AM J, V64, P300 SHEPHERD TG, 2001, AUST J SOIL RES, V39, P465 SIMS JT, 1997, J ENVIRON QUAL, V26, P20 SMITH CS, 1998, J ENVIRON MANAGE, V52, P15 SMITH CS, 2000, J ENVIRON MANAGE, V60, P267 SPARLING GP, RES REPORT 2000 2001 SPARLING GP, 2002, P SOIL QUAL SUST LAN, P13 TICKNER J, 1998, PRECAUTIONARY PRINCI NR 24 TC 0 J9 PEDOSPHERE BP 41 EP 48 PY 2003 PD FEB VL 13 IS 1 GA 734KV UT ISI:000186055800005 ER PT J AU Bodin, O Tengo, M Norman, A Lundberg, J Elmqvist, T TI The value of small size: Loss of forest patches and ecological thresholds in southern Madagascar SO ECOLOGICAL APPLICATIONS LA English DT Article C1 Stockholm Univ, Dept Syst Ecol, S-10691 Stockholm, Sweden. RP Bodin, O, Stockholm Univ, Dept Syst Ecol, S-10691 Stockholm, Sweden. AB Many services generated by forest ecosystems provide essential support for human well-being. However, the vulnerability of these services to environmental change such as forest fragmentation are still poorly understood. We present spatial modeling of the generation of ecosystem services in a human-dominated landscape where forest habitat patches, protected by local taboos, are located in a matrix of cultivated land in southern Madagascar. Two ecosystem services dependent on the forest habitats were addressed: (1) crop pollination services by wild and semidomesticated bees (Apoidea), essential for local crop production of, for example, beans, and (2) seed dispersal services based on the presence of ring-tailed lemurs (Lemur catta). We studied the vulnerability of these ecosystem services to a plausible scenario of successive destruction of the smallest habitat patches. Our results indicate that, in spite of the fragmented nature of the landscape, the fraction of the landscape presently covered by both crop pollination and seed dispersal services is surprisingly high. It seems that the taboo system, though indirectly and unintentionally, contributes to upholding the generation of these services by protecting the forest patches. Both services are, however, predicted to be very vulnerable to the successive removal of small patches. For crop pollination, the rate of decrease in cover was significant even when only the smallest habitat patches were removed. The capacity for seed dispersal across the landscape displayed several thresholds with habitat patch removal. Our results suggest that, in order to maintain capacity for seed dispersal across the landscape and crop pollination cover in southern Androy, the geographical location of the remaining forest patches is more crucial than their size. We argue that in heavily fragmented production landscapes, small forest patches should increasingly be viewed as essential for maintaining ecosystem services, such as agricultural production, and also should be considered in the ongoing process of tripling the area of protected habitats in Madagascar. 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Overseas Dev Inst, London SE1 7JD, England. RP Devereux, S, Univ Sussex, Inst Dev Studies, Brighton BN1 9RE, E Sussex, England. AB According to several studies, poverty in rural Ethiopia has fallen significantly since the early 1990s, thanks to improved governance and economic liberalisation policies. This paper presents several arguments that challenge this view. The first questions the methodological foundations of the data from which these positive trends are derived we argue that the original sampling frame was too small and unrepresentative to provide a basis for extrapolating national poverty levels or trends. The second argument questions the conceptual underpinnings of these studies: poverty estimates based on levels of current consumption jail to allow for non-income dimensions of wellbeing, nor for confounding factors such as seasonality, annual rainfall and food aid receipts. The third strand considers alternative sources of data on changes in wellbeing in Ethiopia: recent qualitative studies report that the poor perceive themselves as poorer and more vulnerable than poverty headcount figures suggest. Finally, we report findings from our own survey in chronically poor and historically famine-prone Wollo. First, a significant proportion of households in the study area are destitute destitution being defined as inability to meet basic needs, lack of key productive assets, and dependence on transfers. Secondly, the numbers of destitute people, and of people vulnerable to becoming destitute, have increased over the past ten years. Thirdly the crisis of livelihoods underlying this trend is affecting entire communities - the dominant pattern is an aggregate downward shift, rather than. stratification - and the decline of wealthier households is exacerbating the vulnerability of the poorest. These findings cast serious doubts on generalisations about poverty trends in Ethiopia. At the very least, national-level data need to be disaggregated improving national trends may conceal pockets of entrenched poverty and a deepening livelihoods crisis in parts of rural Ethiopia. CR *FDRE, 2002, ETH SUST DEV POV RED *IMF, 1999, ETH REC EC DEV *IMF, 2002, ETH STAT APP *MEDAC, 1999, POV SIT ETH *NIC, 2002, NEXT WAV HIV AIDS NI *STEER COMM EV JOI, 2004, EV RESP 200203 EM ET *WORLD BANK, 1981, ACC AFR AGR DEV *WORLD BANK, 1999, ETH POV POL NEW MILL *WORLD BANK, 2002, ET RUR DEV WORKSH 13 BELSHAW D, 2002, RENEWING DEV SUBSAHA BEVAN P, 1997, OXFORD DEV STUDIES, V25, P315 BIGSTEN A, 2003, WORLD DEV, V31, P87 BLOCK S, 2001, FOOD POLICY, V26, P333 CHBAL P, 1999, AFRICA WORKS DISORDE DEMERY L, 1995, 70 ESP WORLD BANK DERCON S, 1998, WORKING PAPER SERIES, V987 DERCON S, 2000, J DEV STUD, V36, P25 DERCON S, 2000, UNPUB POVERTY REDUCT DERCON S, 2002, IMPACT EC REFORMS RU DESTA HK, 2000, N WOLLO HIGHLAND BEL DEVEREUX S, 1988, FOOD POLICY, V13, P270 DEVEREUX S, 2003, 216 I DEV STUD DEVEREUX S, 2003, 55 IDS DEVEREUX S, 2003, STAYING POOR CHRONIC DEWAAL A, 1997, FAMINE CRIMES POLITI DOLLAR D, 2000, 2587 WORLD BANK DONOVAN G, 1997, ETHIOPIA AGR GROWTH ERCON S, 2000, GROWTH POVERTY ETHIO FILMER D, 1998, ESTIMATING WEALTH EF GETAHUN Z, 2001, ETHIOPIAN J HLTH DEV, V15, P55 HOLT J, 1999, SUSTAINBLE LIVELIHOO JAYNE TS, 2002, WORLD DEV, V30, P1967 JODHA NS, 1988, ECON POLIT WEEKLY, V45, P2421 KAISER R, 2003, CDC ETHIOPIA DROUGHT KEBEDE E, 2002, FOOD AID IMPACT MONI KHERALLAH M, 2002, REFORMING AGR MARKET KYDD J, 2001, DEV POLICY REV, V19, P467 MATHYS E, 2000, MONITORING IMPACT FO MCGEE R, 2004, DEV CHANGE, V35, P499 NARAAN D, 2000, VOICES POOR CRYING O RAHMATO D, 1991, FAMINE SURVIVAL STRA RAHMATO D, 1999, CONSULTATIONS POOR N RAVALLION M, 1997, WORLD BANK ECON REV, V11, P357 ROBINSON C, 2003, NOTHING FALL BACK WH SALAMA P, 2001, JAMA-J AM MED ASSOC, V286, P563 SEAMAN J, 2000, HOUSEHOLD EC APPROAC SEN AK, 1981, POVERTY FAMINES ESSA, V1, P1 SHARP K, 2003, 217 IDS SHARP K, 2004, J HUMAN DEV, V5, P227 TRIBE M, 2002, RENEWING DEV SUBSAHA WEBB P, 1994, FAINE FOOD SECURITY WIGGINS S, 2000, WORLD DEV, V28, P631 YIRSAW F, 2002, POVERTY DIAGNOSIS 3 NR 53 TC 0 J9 J DEVELOP STUD BP 592 EP 610 PY 2006 PD MAY VL 42 IS 4 GA 050LY UT ISI:000238090300003 ER PT J AU Meehl, GA TI Vulnerability of freshwater resources to climate change in the tropical Pacific region SO WATER AIR AND SOIL POLLUTION LA English DT Article RP Meehl, GA, NATL CTR ATMOSPHER RES,POB 3000,BOULDER,CO 80307. AB El Nino events and associated droughts adversely affect freshwater resources on islands in the tropical Pacific region. Particularly vulnerable are low-lying atolls because rainwater collection is the main freshwater source on such islands. During El Nino-ralated droughts, water can be drawn only from the limited freshwater lenses beneath the islands. If drought conditions such as these intensify, the depletion of freshwater resources could affect the habitability of atolls. Avenge climate change in the Pacific region from increased anthropogenic carbon dioxide in a global coupled climate model resembles present-day El Nino conditions as well as the decadal time scale sea surface temperature and precipitation anomalies observed during the 1980s and early 1990s. These anomalies are a consequence of greater warming of sea surface temperatures in the eastern equatorial Pacific than over the western Pacific warm pool with increased carbon dioxide in the climate model. Attendant increases in precipitation in the central equatorial Pacific are also accompanied by precipitation decreases in the northern and southern tropical Pacific (roughly 5 degrees N to 15 degrees N and 5 degrees S to 15 degrees S), as well as in the Australasian and eastern Indian Ocean regions. Associated effects in the midlatitude North Pacific also resemble El Nino conditions and the decadal time-scale signals from the 1980s. Future possible increases of drought conditions in certain tropical Pacific regions, as indicated by the climate model results, could limit the sustainability of atoll populations in those regions, causing migration and increased urbanization, with all the attendant problems, on larger high islands with more stable water supplies. CR BOER GJ, 1993, CLIM DYNAM, V8, P225 BOTTOMLY M, 1990, GLOBAL OCEAN SURFACE CHEN TC, 1992, J METEOROL SOC JPN, V70, P1137 GRAHAM NE, 1994, CLIM DYNAM, V10, P135 GRAHAM NE, 1995, SCIENCE, V267, P666 HOUGHTON JT, 1992, CLIMATE CHANGE 1992 KILADIS GN, 1988, MON WEA REV, V116, P120 KNUTSON TR, 1995, J CLIMATE, V8, P2181 KUMAR A, 1994, SCIENCE, V266, P632 MEEHL GA, IN PRESS NATURE MEEHL GA, 1987, MON WEATHER REV, V115, P27 MEEHL GA, 1993, J CLIMATE, V6, P42 MEEHL GA, 1995, B AM METEOROL SOC, V76, P951 MEEHL GA, 1995, CLIM DYNAM, V11, P399 NITTA T, 1989, J METEOROL SOC JPN, V67, P375 NITTA T, 1994, J METEOROL SOC JPN, V72, P823 OBERHUBER JM, 1988, ATLAS BASED COADS DA RAMANATHAN V, 1991, NATURE, V351, P27 RAPPA P, 1995, CLIMATE CHANGE IMPLI ROPELEWSKI CF, 1987, MON WEATHER REV, V115, P1606 SALINGER MJ, 1995, INT J CLIMATOL, V15, P285 SENIOR CA, 1993, J CLIMATE, V6, P393 SHANKMAN P, 1993, CONT PACIFIC SOC STANLEY D, 1985, MICRONESIA HDB TRENBERTH KE, 1990, B AM METEOROL SOC, V71, P988 TRENBERTH KE, 1994, CLIM DYNAM, V9, P303 VANLOON H, 1981, MON WEA REV, V109, P1150 WANG B, 1995, J CLIMATE, V8, P267 WASHINGTON WM, 1993, CLIM DYNAM, V8, P211 ZHANG GJ, 1995, J CLIMATE, V8, P589 NR 30 TC 5 J9 WATER AIR SOIL POLLUT BP 203 EP 213 PY 1996 PD SEP VL 92 IS 1-2 GA VM538 UT ISI:A1996VM53800021 ER PT J AU Knox, JC TI Floodplain sedimentation in the Upper Mississippi Valley: Natural versus human accelerated SO GEOMORPHOLOGY LA English DT Article C1 Univ Wisconsin, Dept Geog, Madison, WI 53706 USA. RP Knox, JC, Univ Wisconsin, Dept Geog, Madison, WI 53706 USA. AB Understanding the time scales and pathways for response and recovery of rivers and floodplains to episodic changes in erosion and sedimentation has been a long standing issue in fluvial geomorphology. Floodplains are an important component of watershed systems because they affect downstream storage and delivery of overbank flood waters, and they also serve as sources and temporary sinks for sediments and toxic substances delivered by river systems. Here, C-14 and Cs-137 isotopic dating methods are used along with ages of culturally related phenomena associated with mining and agriculture to determine rates of sedimentation and morphologic change for a reach of the upper Mississippi River and adjacent tributaries in southwestern Wisconsin and northwestern Illinois. The most important environmental change that influenced fluvial activity in this region during last 10,000 years involved the conversion of a late Holocene mosaic of prairie and forest to a landscape dominated by cropland and pastureland associated with Euro-American settlement. Results presented herein for the Upper Mississippi Valley (UMV) show that the shift from pre-agriculture, natural land cover to landscape dominance by agricultural land use of the last 175-200 years typically increased rates and magnitudes of floodplain sedimentation by at least an order of magnitude. Accelerated overbank flooding led to increased bank heights on tributary streams and, in turn, contributed to more frequent deep flows of high energy. These high energy flows subsequently promoted bank erosion and lateral channel migration, and the formation of a historical meander belt whose alluvial surface constitutes a new historical floodplain inset against the earlier historical floodplain. The new historical floodplain serves as a "flume-like" channel that provides efficient downstream transport of water and sediment associated with moderate and large magnitude floods. Floodplains on lower tributaries, however, continue to experience rates of overbank sedimentation that are of anomalously high magnitude given improved land cover and land conservation since about 1950. This lower valley anomaly is explained by minimal development of historical (agriculture period) meander belts because of relatively low stream power in these channel and floodplain reaches of relatively low gradient. In general, long-term pre-agriculture rates of vertical accretion between about 10,000 and 200 years ago averaged about 0.2 mm yr(-1) in tributary watersheds smaller than about 700 km(2) and about 0.9 mm yr(-1) on the floodplain of the upper Mississippi River where the contributing watershed area increases to about 170,000 km2. On the other hand, rates of historical vertical accretion during the period of agricultural dominance of the last 200 years average between 2 and 20 mm yr(-1), with short episodes of even higher rates during times of particularly poor land conservation practices. Significant hydrologic effects of mining and agricultural started by the 1820s and became widespread in the study region by the mid-19th century. The hydrologic and geomorphic influences of mining were relatively minor compared to those related to agriculture. High resolution dating of floodplain vertical accretion deposits shows that large floods have frequently provided major increments of sedimentation on floodplains of tributaries and the main valley upper Mississippi River. The relative importance of large floods as contributors to floodplain vertical accretion is noteworthy bcause global atmospheric circulation models indicate that the main channel upper Mississippi River should experience increased frequencies of extreme hydrologic events, including large floods, with anticipated continued global warming. Instrumental and stratigraphic records show that, coincident with global warming, a shift to more frequent large floods occurred since 1950 on the upper Mississippi River, and these floods generally contributed high magnitudes of floodplain sedimentation. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 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Monash Univ, Sch Geog & Environm Sci, Clayton, Vic 3800, Australia. Univ Colorado, CIRES, Boulder, CO 80309 USA. RP Brunner, RD, Univ Colorado, Ctr Publ Policy Res, Boulder, CO 80309 USA. AB The purpose of the research reported here is to help the community in Barrow, Alaska, clarify its vulnerability to extreme weather events, and devise better-informed policies for reducing that vulnerability and adapting to climate variability and change. We examine the worst disaster on record there-a storm that struck on 3 October 1963-from different disciplinary perspectives and in the context of other severe storms. The major policy responses to date have been a beach nourishment program, a feasibility study of additional means of erosion control, and an emergency management plan. Additional possible responses have been identified in the community's cumulative experience of these storms, but have not yet been fully explored or implemented. Meanwhile, given inherent uncertainties, it is clear that sound policies will allow for corrective action if and when expectations based on the best available knowledge and information turn out to be mistaken. It is also clear that the people of Barrow are in the best position to understand the evolving situation and to decide what to do about it. CR 1963, TUNDRA TIMES 0304, P5 1963, TUNDRA TIMES 1007, P1 1963, TUNDRA TIMES 1007, P7 1963, TUNDRA TIMES 1021, P1 1963, TUNDRA TIMES 1021, P5 1963, TUNDRA TIMES 1104, P7 1963, TUNDRA TIMES 1202, P7 1963, TUNDRA TIMS 1021, P3 1965, TUNDRA TIMES 0315, P7 1986, OPEN LEAD NOV, P38 1989, BARROW SUN 0303, P1 1989, BARROW SUN 0307, P7 *BTS LCMF LDT, 1989, MIT ALT COAST ER WAI *EM RESP I INT INC, 2000, COMPR EM MAN PLAN CE *USACE, 2001, BARR AK SECT 905B WR AHMAOGOK GN, 2000, STORM SUMMARY REPORT AHMAOGOK GN, 2001, COMMUNICATION 0424 BRUNNER RD, 2000, PREDICTION SCI DECIS, P199 BRUNNER RD, 2001, POLICY SCI, V34, P1 CULLATHER RI, 2003, INT J CLIMATOL, V23, P1161 HESS B, 1993, TAKING CONTROL STORY HUME JD, 1967, ARCTIC, V20, P86 KEEGAN TJ, 1958, J METEOROL, V15, P513 KOWALIK Z, 1984, J GEOPHYS RES, V89, P10570 LASSWELL HD, 1971, PREVIEW POLICY SCI LEDREW EF, 1983, J CLIMATOL, V3, P335 LEDREW EF, 1985, J CLIMATOL, V5, P253 LYNCH AH, 2002, MONTHLY WEATHER REV, V131, P719 LYNCH AH, 2004, B AM METEOROL SOC, V85, P209 MASKS K, 1982, TUNDRA TIMES 0901, P7 MASLANIK JA, 1996, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V23, P1677 MASLANIK JA, 1999, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V26, P1905 MILETI DS, 1999, DISASTERS DESIGN REA NEAKOK C, 2000, 2000 STORM DAM SEA W OKAKOK G, 1963, TUNDRA TIMES 1021, P3 ORESKES N, 1994, SCIENCE, V263, P641 PIELKE RA, 1997, SOC NATUR RESOUR, V10, P485 ROCK H, 1963, TUNDRA TIMES 1021, P4 ROGERS JC, 1978, MON WEATHER REV, V106, P890 SCHAEFFER PJ, 1966, ARCH METEOROL GEOP A, V15, P372 SERREZE MC, 1993, METEOROL ATMOS PHYS, V51, P147 SERREZE MC, 2001, J CLIMATE, V14, P1550 TIERNEY KJ, 2001, FACING UNEXPECTED DI UNGAR S, 1995, SOC NATUR RESOUR, V8, P443 WALKER HJ, 1991, S ER ARCH SIT N SLOP, P8 WALSH JE, 1996, J CLIMATE, V9, P480 NR 46 TC 0 J9 ARCTIC BP 336 EP 346 PY 2004 PD DEC VL 57 IS 4 GA 880NA UT ISI:000225795300003 ER PT J AU McNelis, DN Schweitzer, GE TI Environmental security: An evolving concept SO ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY LA English DT Article C1 Univ N Carolina, Carolina Environm Program, Res Programs, Chapel Hill, NC 27514 USA. RP McNelis, DN, Univ N Carolina, Carolina Environm Program, Res Programs, Chapel Hill, NC 27514 USA. CR *ISL REP IR, 1999, CASP ENV PROGR NAT R *NATO COMM CHALL M, 1999, 232 NATO COMM CHALL *US EPA, 1999, USEPA160F99001 *W WILS CTR, 2000, ENV CHANG SEC PROJ R ESTY DC, 1999, ENV CHANGE SECURITY HAUGE W, 1998, J PEACE RES, V35, P381 HOMERDIXON T, 1998, ECOVIOLENCE LINKS EN HOMERDIXON TF, 1994, INT SECURITY, V19, P5 LOGAN J, 1999, CLIMATE ACTION US CH LONERGAN S, 11 IHDP, P32 RUBIN V, 1999, GEOPOLITICS ENERGY D VINOGRADOV SV, 1999, NATO SCI SERIES, V2 NR 12 TC 0 J9 ENVIRON SCI TECHNOL BP 108A EP 113A PY 2001 PD MAR 1 VL 35 IS 5 GA 407XQ UT ISI:000167296400020 ER PT J AU Luo, QY Lin, E TI Agricultural vulnerability and adaptation in developing countries: The Asia-Pacific region SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 Chinese Acad Agr Sci, Inst Agrometeorol, Beijing 100081, Peoples R China. RP Luo, QY, Univ Adelaide, Dept Geog & Environm Studies, Mawson Grad Ctr Environm Studies, Adelaide, SA 5005, Australia. AB During the last decades, a large number of climate change impact studies on agriculture have been conducted qualitatively and quantitatively in many regions of the Asia-Pacific. Changes in average climate conditions and climate variability will have a significant consequence on crop yields in many parts of the Asia-Pacific. Crop yield and productivity changes will vary considerably across the region. Vulnerability to climate change depends not only on physical and biological response but also on socioeconomic characteristics. Adaptation strategies that consider changes in crop varieties or in the timing of agricultural activities imply low costs and, if readily undertaken, can compensate for some of the yield loss simulated with the climate change scenarios. The studies reviewed here suggest that the regions of Tropical Asia appear to be among the more vulnerable; some areas of Temperate Asia also appear to be vulnerable. CR *AS DEV BANK, 1994, REG STUD GLOB ENV IS *INT PAN CLIM CHAN, 1996, CLIM CHANG 1995 IMP AGGARWAL PK, 1993, J AGR METEOROL, V48, P811 AMADORE LA, 1996, WATER AIR SOIL POLL, V92, P1 AMIEN I, 1996, WATER AIR SOIL POLL, V92, P29 ANGLO EG, 1996, REG WORKSH CLIM CHAN BAYASGALAN S, 1996, ADAPTING CLIMATE CHA, P164 BAZZAZ FA, 1996, GLOBAL CHANGE TERRES, P43 BRAMMER H, 1994, 3 BUP BUAN RD, 1996, WATER AIR SOIL POLL, V92, P41 DIAZ S, 1995, J BIOGEOGR, V22, P289 ESCANO CR, 1994, IMPLICATIONS CLIMATE HULME M, 1992, CLIMATE CHANGE DUE G IGLESIAS A, 1996, WATER AIR SOIL POLL, V92, P13 JIN Z, 1994, IMPLICATIONS CLIMATE, P1 KARIM Z, 1996, WATER AIR SOIL POLL, V92, P53 KAVALERCHIK S, 1995, OVERALL APPROACHES P, P49 LAL M, 1997, ATR196 IND I TECHN C LIN ED, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE VULNE, V92, P63 LIN JC, 1994, ADV ELECTROMAG FIELD, V1, P1 LU LS, 1991, PRODUCTIVE STRUCTURE LU LS, 1991, STUDIES MEDIUM LONG MATTHEWS RB, 1995, MODELING IMPACTS CLI PARRY ML, 1992, POTENTIAL SOCIOECONO PILIFOSOVA O, 1996, VULNERABILITY ADAPTA, P161 QURESHI A, 1994, IMPLICATIONS CLIMATE RAO DG, 1994, IMPLICATIONS CLIMATE RAO DG, 1995, ASA SPEC PUBL, V59, P325 TONGYAI C, 1994, IMPLICATIONS CLIMATE WANG JH, 1996, WATER AIR SOIL POLL, V92, P75 WIJERATNE MA, 1996, WATER AIR SOIL POLL, V92, P87 ZHANG H, 1993, CLIMATE CHANGE ITS I, P131 NR 32 TC 2 J9 CLIMATIC CHANGE BP 729 EP 743 PY 1999 PD DEC VL 43 IS 4 GA 248KD UT ISI:000083272900005 ER PT J AU Nicholls, RJ Hoozemans, FMJ TI The Mediterranean: Vulnerability to coastal implications of climate change SO OCEAN & COASTAL MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article C1 DELFT HYDRAUL,NL-8300 AD EMMELOORD,NETHERLANDS. RP Nicholls, RJ, MIDDLESEX UNIV,SCH GEOG & ENVIRONM MANAGEMENT,ENFIELD EN3 4SF,MIDDX,ENGLAND. AB The Mediterranean is experiencing a number of immediate coastal problems which are triggering efforts to improve short-term coastal management. This paper shows that coastal management also needs to address long-term problems and, in particular, the likelihood of climate change. Regional scale studies suggest that the Mediterranean is particularly vulnerable to increased flooding by storm surges as sea levels rise-a 1-m rise in sea level would cause at least a sir-fold increase in the number of people experiencing such flooding in a typical year, without considering population growth. Protection is quite feasible, however, this would place a greater burden on those Mediterranean countries in the south than those in the north. All coastal wetlands appear threatened. Case studies of coastal cities (Venice and Alexandria), deltas (Nile, Po, Rhone and Ebro), and islands (Cyprus) support the need to consider climate change in coastal planning. However, the critical issues vary from site to site and from setting to setting. In deltaic areas and low-lying coastal plains climate change, particularly sea-level rise, is already considered as an important issue, but elsewhere this is not the case. Therefore, there is a need for coastal management plans to explicitly address long-term issues, including climate change, and integrate this planning with short-term issues. This is entirely consistent with existing guidelines.(1) Given the large uncertainty concerning the future, planning for climate change will involve identifying and implementing low-cost proactive measures, such as appropriate land use planning or improved design standards incorporated within renewal cycles, as well as identifying sectors or activities which may be compromised by likely climate change. In the latter case, any necessary investment can be seen as a prudent 'insurance policy'. Copyright (C) 1996 Elsevier Science Ltd. CR *DELFT HYDR, 1992, ASS ACC SEA LEV RIS *IPCC CZMS, 1991, ASS VULN COAST AR SE *IPCC CZMS, 1992, GLOB CLIM CHANG RIS *LOU COAST WETL CO, 1993, LOUIS COAST REST PLA *NAT RES COUNC, 1987, RESP CHANG SEA LEV E *NAT RES COUNC, 1995, SCI POL COAST IMPR D *UN POP DIV, 1993, WORLD URB PROSP 1992 *UNEP, 1995, UNEP REGIONAL SEAS R, V161 *WORLD COAST C, 1993, PREP M COAST CHALL 2 BAARSE G, 1995, CZM CTR PUBLICATION, V3 BALKAS T, 1993, COASTAL ZONE MANAGEM, P85 BANDARIN F, 1995, MEDCOAST 95, P537 BARIC A, 1992, CLIMATIC CHANGE MEDI, P129 BILJSMA L, 1996, IMPACTS ADAPTATIONS, P289 BOESCH DF, 1994, J COASTAL RES BONDESAN M, 1995, J COASTAL RES, V11, P1354 BROADUS J, 1986, EFFECTS CHANGES STRA, V4, P1625 CAPOBIANCO M, 1995, MEDCOAST 95, P737 CARTER TR, 1994, TECHNICAL GUIDELINES CORRE JJ, 1992, IMPACTS SEA LEVEL RI, P153 DALFES HN, 1991, CITIES GLOBAL CHANGE, P92 DAY JW, 1994, CHANGES FLUXES ESTUA, P151 DAY JW, 1995, MEDC 95 OCT 24 27 19, P781 DEVINE NP, 1992, THESIS RUTGERS STATE DOUGLAS BC, 1995, REV GEOPHYSICS S, P1425 ELRAEY M, 1990, CHANGING CLIMATE COA, V2, P225 ELRAEY M, 1995, J COASTAL RES, P190 ELSAYED MK, 1991, P 1 INT M CIT WAT, P183 EMERGY KO, 1988, MAR GEOL, V8, P41 FLEMMING NC, 1992, CLIMATIC CHANGE MEDI, P247 FRANCIA C, 1993, COASTAL ZONE MANAGEM, P109 FRENCH JR, 1995, EARTH SURF PROCESSES, V20, P1 GORDON HB, 1992, CLIM DYNAM, V8, P83 HAZMA A, 1989, ENVIRON URBAN, V11, P22 HOLLIGAN PM, 1993, 25 IGBP HOLZER TL, 1985, GEOJOURNAL, V11, P245 HOOZEMANS FMJ, 1993, GLOBAL VULNERABILITY IACOVAU NG, 1995, MEDCOAST 95, P491 JEFTIC L, 1992, CLIMATE CHANGE MEDIT JELGERSMA S, 1992, CLIMATE CHANGE MED, P282 KOSTER MJ, 1995, J COASTAL RES, V11, P1221 LEE GH, 1995, J COASTAL RES, V11, P1157 LOIZIDOU XI, 1995, MEDCOAST 95, P1019 MACKENZIE D, 1995, NEW SCI, V147, P8 MCLEAN R, 1993, VULNERABILITY ASSESS MILLIMAN JD, 1989, AMBIO, V18, P340 MILLIMAN JD, 1992, CLIMATE CHANGE MEDIT, P45 MITCHELL JK, 1992, CONFRONTING CLIMATE, P141 NICHOLLS RJ, 1995, GEOH ENG GEOL CONV S NICHOLLS RJ, 1995, GEOJOURNAL, V37, P369 NICHOLLS RJ, 1995, J COASTAL RES, P303 NICHOLLS RJ, 1995, M COAST CHALL 21 CEN, P181 NICHOLLS RJ, 1995, P 2 INT C MED COST E, V95, P1199 OZHAN E, 1995, P 2 INT C MED COAST PEERBOLTE EB, 1991, IMPACT SEA LEVEL RIS PIRAZZOLI PA, 1987, PROGR OCEANOGRAPHY, V18, P323 PIRAZZOLI PA, 1991, J COASTAL RES, V7, P231 SANCHEZARCILLA A, 1996, OCEAN COASTAL MANAGE, V30 SESTINI G, 1992, CLIMATIC CHANGE MEDI, P535 SESTINI G, 1992, IMPACTS SEA LEVEL RI, P170 STANLEY DJ, 1990, MAR GEOL, V94, P147 STANLEY DJ, 1993, SCIENCE, V260, P628 STEVENSON JC, 1986, ESTUARINE VARIABILIT, P241 STRZEPEK KM, 1995, CLIMATE CHANGES INT, P189 TURNER RK, ENVIRON MANAGE, V20, P159 TURNER RK, 1990, CITIES RISK TURNER RK, 1995, ENVIRON PLANN A, V27, P1777 VOLONTE CR, 1995, J COASTAL RES, P262 WARNE AG, 1993, J COASTAL RES, V9, P26 WARRICK RA, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, P359 WIGLEY TML, 1992, CLIMATIC CHANGE MEDI, P15 WIGLEY TML, 1992, NATURE, V357, P293 ZANDA L, 1991, P 1 INT M CIT WAT, P51 NR 73 TC 5 J9 OCEAN COAST MANAGE BP 105 EP 132 PY 1996 VL 31 IS 2-3 GA WE419 UT ISI:A1996WE41900003 ER PT J AU Peters, E van Lanen, HAJ Torfs, PJJF Bier, G TI Drought in groundwater - drought distribution and performance indicators SO JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY LA English DT Article C1 Wageningen Univ, Subdept Water Resources, NL-6709 PA Wageningen, Netherlands. RP van Lanen, HAJ, Wageningen Univ, Subdept Water Resources, Nieuwe Kanaal 11, NL-6709 PA Wageningen, Netherlands. AB In order to investigate how droughts are changed by the groundwater system and to analyse the performance of groundwater during drought, 10 time series of 1000 years of recharge and groundwater discharge were generated. The 10 X 1000 years of synthetic daily data were generated using Nearest Neighbour resampling based on 37 years of observed daily meteorological data. The root zone was simulated by a non-linear water balance model and the groundwater system by a linear reservoir model. The size and thus the response time of the reservoir was characterised by a reservoir coefficient. Subsequently, the deficit and duration of the droughts were derived from the time series of recharge and groundwater discharge using the threshold level approach. An analysis of the distribution of these droughts shows that for droughts with small return periods, the deficit in the groundwater discharge is smaller than in the recharge. For droughts with large return periods, the deficit in the groundwater discharge is larger than in the recharge. The performance of groundwater systems with respect to droughts was evaluated using three classical performance indicators (reliability, resilience and vulnerability), a combination of these three indicators (Loucks' sustainability index) and three newly defined overall performance indicators. The newly defined indicators combine the severity and frequency of the droughts, instead of analysing these separately in reliability and vulnerability. The performance is estimated for the groundwater recharge and for the discharge of groundwater systems with three different values of the reservoir coefficient. Of all the performance indicators used, one of the newly introduced overall performance indicators with a strong emphasis on droughts with a high return period appeared to characterise the groundwater droughts best. This indicator shows a more or less constant performance for low and medium high reservoir coefficients and an increasing performance for higher reservoir coefficients. (c) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. CR *VER VOOR LAND, 1992, CULT VAD VER VOOR LA ALILA Y, 2002, HYDROL PROCESS, V16, P1065 BRANDSMA T, 1998, HYDROL EARTH SYST SC, V2, P195 CALOW R, 1999, P INT C INT DROUGHT, P255 CORREIA FN, 1986, SYST AN APPL WAT REL CUNNANE C, 1979, WATER RESOUR RES, V15, P489 DEMUTH S, 2000, DROUGHT DROUGHT MITI, P209 DEZEEUW JW, 1958, LANDBOUWKUNDIG TIJDS, V70, P405 DOUGLAS EM, 2002, J HYDROL ENG, V7, P220 ENGELAND K, 2000, PRACTICAL EXTREME VA ESTRELA T, 1996, WATER RESOURCES PROB FERNANDEZ B, 1999, J HYDROL ENG, V4, P308 HASHIMOTO T, 1982, WATER RESOUR RES, V18, P14 HIPEL KW, 1994, DEV WATER SCI, V45 HISDAL H, 2002, IAHS PUBLICATION, V274, P281 KJELDSEN TR, 2001, IAHS PUBL, V268, P107 LALL U, 1996, WATER RESOUR RES, V32, P679 LOUCKS DP, 1997, HYDROLOG SCI J, V42, P513 MAIER HR, 2001, WATER RESOUR RES, V37, P779 MCMAHON TA, 1993, HDB HYDROLOGY, CH27 MOY WS, 1986, WATER RESOUR RES, V22, P489 PANDEY RP, 2001, HYDROL PROCESS, V15, P1019 PETERS E, 2001, ASSESSMENT REGIONAL, P35 PETERS E, 2003, HYDROL PROCESS, V17, P3023 RAJAGOPALAN B, 1999, WATER RESOUR RES, V35, P3089 REISS RD, 1997, STAT ANAL EXTREME VA RITZEMA HP, 1994, ILRI PUBLICATION, V16 ROBINS NS, 1997, WC9757 BGS SCHEIDLEDER A, 1999, GROUNDWATER QUALITY STAHL K, 2001, THESIS U FREIBURG BR STEDINGER JR, 1993, HDB HYDROLOGY, CH18 TALLAKSEN LM, 2000, DROUGHT DROUGHT MITI, P103 UIJLENHOET R, 2001, STAT ANAL DAILY DISC VANDELEUR DAK, 1962, J GEOPHYS RES, V67, P4347 VANLANEN HAJ, 1996, P INT C CAL REL GROU, P307 VANLANEN HAJ, 2000, DROUGHT DROUGHT MITI, P49 VAZ AC, 1986, SYST AN APPL WAT REL WHITE L, 1999, TECHNICAL DOCUMENTS, V26 WOJCIK R, 2001, RAINFALL GENERATOR R WOJCIK R, 2003, J HYDROL, V273, P69 WOO MK, 1994, HYDROLOG SCI J, V39, P19 YEVJEVICH V, 1967, 23 COL STAT U NR 42 TC 3 J9 J HYDROL BP 302 EP 317 PY 2005 PD MAY 9 VL 306 IS 1-4 GA 930KA UT ISI:000229413500018 ER PT J AU MOY, WS COHON, JL REVELLE, CS TI A PROGRAMMING-MODEL FOR ANALYSIS OF THE RELIABILITY, RESILIENCE, AND VULNERABILITY OF A WATER-SUPPLY RESERVOIR SO WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH LA English DT Article C1 JOHNS HOPKINS UNIV,DEPT GEOG & ENVIRONM ENGN,BALTIMORE,MD 21218. RP MOY, WS, USA,CORPS ENGINEERS,INST WATER RESOURCES,FT BELVOIR,VA 22060. CR ASKEW AJ, 1974, WATER RESOUR RES, V10, P1099 ASKEW AJ, 1974, WATER RESOUR RES, V10, P51 COHON JL, 1978, MATH SCI ENG, V140 COLORNI A, 1976, WATER RESOUR RES, V12, P85 CORLEY TE, 1979, RELIABILITY WATER RE, P167 FIERING MB, 1967, STREAM FLOW SYNTHESI FIERING MB, 1982, WATER RESOUR RES, V18, P33 HAIMES YY, 1975, DEV WATER SCI, V3 HASHIMOTO T, 1982, WATER RESOUR RES, V18, P14 HOLLING CS, 1973, ANNUAL REV ECOLOGY S, V4, P1 HOUCK MH, 1979, RELIABILITY WATER RE, P127 HOUCK MH, 1979, WATER RESOUR RES, V15, P1011 HOUCK MH, 1981, WATER RESOUR RES, V17, P827 JOERES EF, 1981, WATER RESOUR RES, V17, P18 LECLERC G, 1973, WATER RESOUR RES, V9, P1155 LOUCKS DP, 1975, WATER RESOUR RES, V11, P777 MAJOR DC, 1979, APPLIED WATER RESOUR MOY W, 1983, THESIS J HOPKINS U B REVELLE C, 1969, WATER RESOUR RES, V5, P767 REVELLE C, 1970, WATER RESOUR RES, V6, P1033 REVELLE CS, 1975, WATER RESOUR RES, V11, P197 ROEFS TG, 1968, RESERVOIR MANAGEMENT SIMONOVIC SP, 1980, WATER RESOUR RES, V16, P844 YEH WW, 1982, STATE ART REV THEORI YEH WWG, 1985, WATER RESOUR RES, V21, P1797 NR 25 TC 19 J9 WATER RESOUR RES BP 489 EP 498 PY 1986 PD APR VL 22 IS 4 GA A8654 UT ISI:A1986A865400007 ER PT J AU Berque, A TI A basis for environmental ethics SO DIOGENES LA English DT Article C1 CNRS, Ecole Hautes Etud Sci Sociales, Paris, France. RP Berque, A, CNRS, Ecole Hautes Etud Sci Sociales, Paris, France. AB The overuse of water resources in the upper reaches of the Tarim (Xinjiang, China) jeopardizes the ecosystem of the huyang (Populus diversifolia) in the middle reaches of the river, which has led the authorities to displace the population of Caohu (Luntai-xian) in the name of environmental security. This paper discusses the ethical basis of such operations by comparing different approaches, and concludes that establishing a genuine environmental ethics implies an ontological revolution: one that will replace the 'being towards death' (Sein zum Tode) of the modern ontological topos of 'individual body: individual person', with the 'being towards life' (sei e no sonzai) of what Watsuji defined as 'the structural moment of human existence', in which being cannot be dissociated from context and history. This ontological revolution, which links human subjecthood with the environment itself, is by the same token the condition of sustainability, which is the most basic human security of all. CR CONSTANZA R, 1997, NATURE, V387, P253 HAOFA S, 2003, LUNTAI JIN, P164 HEIDEGGER M, 1993, SEIN ZEIT, P258 LARRERE R, 1997, BON USAGE NATURE POU LATOUR B, 2002, COSMOPOLITIQUES NATU MARX K, 1867, CAPITAL, P1 TETSURO W, 1979, FUDO NINGENGAKUTEKI, P19 WACKERNAGEL M, 1996, ECOLOGICAL FOOTPRING XU YQ, 2003, GANHANQA DILI, V26, P203 NR 9 TC 0 J9 DIOGENES BP 3 EP + PY 2005 VL 52 IS 3 GA 957NG UT ISI:000231375900001 ER PT J AU Kont, A Ratas, U Puurmann, E TI Sea-level rise impact on coastal areas of Estonia SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Article RP Kont, A, ESTONIAN ACAD SCI,INST ECOL,KEVADE 2,EE-0001 TALLINN,ESTONIA. AB Due to long coastline (3,794 km in total) and extensive low-lying coastal areas, global climate change through sea-level rise will strongly affect the territory of Estonia. A number of valuable natural ecosystems (both, marine and terrestrial) containing rare plant communities often rich in species, but also suitable breeding places for birds will be in danger. Most sandy beaches high in recreative value will disappear. However, isostatic land uplift and location of coastal settlements at a distance from the present coastline reduce the rate of risk. Four case study areas characterizing all the shore types of Estonia have been selected for sea-level rise vulnerability and adaptation assessment. Preliminary results and estimates of vulnerability to 1.0 m sea-level rise by 2075 for two case study areas - Hiiumaa, West-Estonian Archipelago and Parnu-Ikla, south-western coast of the mainland are presented in this paper. CR INGELOG T, 1993, RED DATA BOOK BALTIC, V1, P95 ORVIKU K, 1972, GEOGR STUDIES, P15 ORVIKU K, 1987, EESTI LOODUS, V11, P712 ORVIKU K, 1992, THESIS TARTU U TARTU, P20 VALLNER L, 1988, J GEODYN, V9, P215 NR 5 TC 4 J9 CLIMATIC CHANGE BP 175 EP 184 PY 1997 PD MAY-JUN VL 36 IS 1-2 GA XH635 UT ISI:A1997XH63500012 ER PT J AU Sansom, AL TI Upland vegetation management: The impacts of overstocking SO WATER SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY LA English DT Article C1 Environm Agcy, Leeds LS1 2QG, W Yorkshire, England. RP Sansom, AL, Environm Agcy, Rivers House,21 Pk Sq S, Leeds LS1 2QG, W Yorkshire, England. AB During the last century, the numbers of sheep in Britain have increased significantly. Today a large proportion of the total flock is concentrated in the uplands. In terms of wildlife and landscape, Britain's uplands are among the most vulnerable areas. Poor, thin soils, high rainfall, and extremes of climate and slope increase their vulnerability. Damage to land in the uplands is also likely to have adverse effects downstream. In particular fisheries, water resources and flood defences are likely to be put at risk. It is widely recognised that the increased numbers of stock have led to a reduction in biodiversity in the uplands. It is less widely recognised that they may also have caused soil erosion, riverbank erosion, increased run-off reduced aquifer recharge and low river flows. Ultimately, the process of desertification (severe and catastrophic soil erosion) results in hillsides that have been stripped of their vegetation and soils, a process which is accelerating in Britain's uplands. This paper considers the problem by highlighting the processes involved and by presenting case studies from Britain and the USA. (C) 1999 IAWQ Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *DEP ENV TRANSP RE, 1998, ENV EFF AGR FIN REP *ENV AG, 1998, UND RIV ER *NAT SHEEP ASS, 1995, SHEEP UK OUR NAT HID *ROYAL COMM ENV PO, 1996, SUST US SOIL *ROYAL SOC NAT CON, 1996, CRIS HILLS OV UPL *US EPA, 1993, LIV GRAZ W RIP AR CHANEY E, 1998, COMMUNICATION EVANS R, 1993, LANDSCAPE SENSITIVIT EVANS R, 1996, SOIL EROSION ITS IMP EVANS R, 1998, PROG PHYS GEOG, V22, P251 LOXHAM J, 1997, SHEEP INDUCED EROSIO NEWBORN D, 1991, GAME CONSERVANCY REV, P106 ORR HG, 1997, UNPUB RIVER MANAGEME OWENS LB, 1997, J SOIL WATER CONSERV, V52, P194 SANSOM AL, 1996, NEWSLETTER BRIT HYDR, V49 SANSOM AL, 1997, NEWSLETTER BRIT HYDR, V53 VANDERPOST KD, 1997, J PALEOLIMNOL, V18, P103 WHITE P, 1996, J CIWEM 0610 NR 18 TC 2 J9 WATER SCI TECHNOL BP 85 EP 92 PY 1999 VL 39 IS 12 GA 229BV UT ISI:000082174400013 ER PT J AU Alcamo, J Henrichs, T TI Critical regions: A model-based estimation of world water resources sensitive to global changes SO AQUATIC SCIENCES LA English DT Article C1 Univ Kassel, Ctr Environm Syst Res, D-34109 Kassel, Germany. RP Alcamo, J, Univ Kassel, Ctr Environm Syst Res, Kurt Wolters Str 3, D-34109 Kassel, Germany. AB This paper presents a top-down approach for identifying regions whose water resources have higher sensitivity to global change than other regions. The aim of this approach is to provide an overview of regions that may justify special attention from the research and development assistance community, under particular global change scenarios. As a 'top-down' method it is best seen as a type of sensitivity analysis that can complement rather than replace other 'bottom-up' studies of the vulnerability of particular watersheds. An increase in 'water stress' is used as a measure of increasing sensitivity of watersheds to global change, and this stress is computed with the global water model, WaterGAP. Stress increases when either water withdrawals increase or water availability decreases. Since the criteria for determining critical regions is uncertain, they are calculated and compared for four different sets of criteria. To examine the difference in critical regions under different socio-economic and climate scenarios, they were also calculated for four distinctive scenarios. Under the scenario showing the largest increase in water stresses, the estimated area of critical regions (in 2032) ranges from 7.4 to 13.0 percent of total land area, depending on the criteria for identifying critical regions. As expected, the estimate of critical regions is very scenario-dependent, showing smaller areas under scenarios having smaller increases in water stress. However, some regions always appear as critical regions regardless of the scenario. These include parts of central Mexico, the Middle East, large parts of the Indian sub-continent, and stretches of the North African coast. CR *IPCC, 2000, SPEC REP EEM SCEN MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 *IWMI, 2000, WAT DEM SUPPL 1990 2 *OECD, 1991, STAT ENV 1991 *RIVM, 2001, RIVM CDROM PUBL *UNDP, 1997, HUM DEV REP 1997 *UNEP, 2002, GLOB ENV OUTL 3 *WRI, 2000, WORLD RES 2000 01 *WWC, 2000, WORLD WAT VIS WAT SE ALCAMO J, 1997, A9701 U KASS CTR ENV ALCAMO J, 1998, GLOBAL CHANGE SCENAR ALCAMO J, 2000, WORLD WATER 2025 GLO ALCAMO J, 2002, IN PRESS HYDROLOGICA COSGROVE W, 2002, WORLD WATER VISION M DOLL P, 2002, WATER RESOURCES RES, V38 RASKIN P, 1997, WATER FUTURES ASSESS RASKIN P, 1999, 2 STOCKH ENV I STERN PC, 1992, GLOBAL ENV CHANGE UN VOROSMARTY CJ, 2000, SCIENCE, V289, P284 NR 19 TC 0 J9 AQUAT SCI BP 352 EP 362 PY 2002 VL 64 IS 4 GA 639JD UT ISI:000180624100004 ER PT J AU Williams, JH Ghanadan, R TI Electricity reform in developing and transition countries: A reappraisal SO ENERGY LA English DT Review C1 Univ Calif Berkeley, Energy & Resources Grp, Berkeley, CA 94720 USA. RP Ghanadan, R, Univ Calif Berkeley, Energy & Resources Grp, 310 Barrows Hall, Berkeley, CA 94720 USA. AB Since about 1990, many developing and transition countries have undertaken market-oriented reforms in their electric power sectors. Despite the widespread adoption of a standard policy model, reform processes and outcomes have often failed to meet expectations. Drawing on an extensive literature review and case studies in Asia, Africa, Latin America, and Eastern Europe, this paper describes common features of non-OECD electricity reform and reappraises reform policies and underlying assumptions. Comparison with the sector-focused policy goals of deregulation in OECD countries highlights the importance of national fiscal crises, macroeconomic reforms, and persuasion by multilateral lenders in shaping non-OECD reforms. It also makes clear reform's dependence on attracting foreign capital, and consequent vulnerability to volatile international financial conditions. Case studies of Bolivia, Ghana, India, Poland, and Thailand illustrate reform's diverse pathways and problems in different settings. A broad range of non-OECD reform experiences indicates that disappointing results have often resulted from a narrow focus on finance and cost recovery, inflexibly applied. The paper concludes that improving reform will require emphasizing a broader set of objectives, including service provision, public benefits, effective regulation, and social/political legitimacy. Above all, reforms must be based on realistic assessments of national needs and capabilities. (C) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR 2001, ASIAINFO DAILY 0426 2003, BANGKOK POST NE 0710 2003, NATION NEWSPAPE 0314 *ADB, 1994, BANK POL IN EN SECT *APERC, 2000, POW INT APEC REG *APERC, 2003, EN INV OUTL APEC REG *BOST CONS GROUP, 2003, IN PRESS DEV NAT STR *ECA LTD, 2003, UNPUB GHAN POW SECT *EIA, EN OV BOL EN INF ADM *EIA, 1996, PRIV GLOB EN MARK *EIA, 2002, INT EN ANN 2001 *EIA, 2004, N CENTR EUR EN INF A *ESMAP, 1993, 15393 ESMAP WORLD BA, V1 *ESMAP, 1994, 17339 ESMAP WORLD BA *ESMAP, 1995, 21520 ESMAP WORLD BA *ESMAP, 1999, 21999 ESMAP WORLD BA *ESMAP, 2000, 00391 ESMAP WORLD BA *IEA, 2002, EL IND PROV POW MILL *IEA, 2003, EN PRIC TAX Q STAT 2 *IEA, 2003, WORLD EN INV OUTL 20 *IND PLANN COMM, 2002, ANN REP 2001 2002 WO *JAMASB T, 2002, 0226 DAE U CAMBR *KAN COMM, 2001, REP COMM POW SECT RE *MOME, 1996, EN SECT DEV PROGR 19 *NEPO, 1999, PRIV LIB EN SECT THA *NEPO, 2000, EL SUPPL IND REF THA *SEPC, 1998, MAST PLAN STAT ENT S *UN, 1952, WORLD EN SUPPL SEL Y *WORLD BANK, 1983, EN TRANS DEV COUNTR *WORLD BANK, 1985, THAIL ISS OPT EN SEC *WORLD BANK, 1993, STAFF APPR REP REP G *WORLD BANK, 1993, WORLD BANKS ROL EL P *WORLD BANK, 1994, 13067BO WORLD BANK *WORLD BANK, 1995, BUR BUS EC POL GOV O *WORLD BANK, 1995, GHAN THERM POW PROJ *WORLD BANK, 1997, 16495 WORLD BANK OP *WORLD BANK, 2000, 20185GH WORLD BANK *WORLD BANK, 2001, 22417 WORLD BANK *WORLD BANK, 2003, 26744 WORLD BANK *WORLD BANK, 2003, INFR IS AG PART WORL *WORLD BANK, 2004, PUBL PRIV SECT ROL S ALBOUY Y, 2001, POLAND REV PRIVATE S ARNOLD W, 2004, NY TIMES 0430 BACON RW, 2001, ANNU REV ENERG ENV, V26, P331 BARJA G, 2003, CAPITALIZATION PRIVA BATES RW, 1997, BULK ELECT PRICING R BOUILLE D, 2002, POWER POLITICS EQUIT BOUILLE D, 2003, ELECT REFORM SOCIAL BOWDEN J, 2001, DOW JONES ASIAN 0221 BYRNE J, 2004, PAC AFF, V77, P493 CAO X, 2003, RESOUR POLICY, V29, P61 CHARPENTIER J, 1995, 42 WORLD BANK CHOW LCH, 2003, ENERG POLICY, V31, P1047 DOMINGUEZ R, 2003, POWER DEV REV WORLD DUBASH N, 2001, EC POLITICAL WKLY, V36, P3367 DUBASH NK, 2002, POWER POLITICS EQUIT DUNKERLEY J, 1995, ENERG POLICY, V23, P927 DUNKERLEY J, 1995, ENERG POLICY, V23, P929 EDJEKUMHENE I, 2002, POWER POLITICS EQUIT ESCAY JR, 1990, SUMMARY DATA SHEETS GREACEN CS, 2004, PAC AFF, V77, P517 HARRISON SS, 2003, WORLD POLICY J, V19, P23 HUNT S, 2002, MAKING COMPETITION W IZAGUIRRE AK, 1998, 154 WORLD BANK JAAFAR MZ, 2003, ENERG POLICY, V31, P1061 JHIRAD D, 1990, ANNU REV ENERG ENV, V15, P365 KALE SS, 2004, PAC AFF, V77, P467 KAPUR MI, 1996, 86 INT MON FUND KAREKEZI S, 2002, ENERG POLICY, V30, P909 KRISHNASWAMY V, 2003, 8 WORLD BANK LAMECH R, 2003, WHAT INT INVESTORS L LERNER E, 2003, IND PHYS, V9, P8 LIEBERMAN I, 2003, PRIVATIZATION PRACTI MANIBOG FR, 2003, POWER DEV REV WORLD MARTIN B, 1993, PUBLIC INTEREST PRIV MCDONALD D, 2002, COST RECOVERY CRISIS MCDONALD DA, 2002, COST RECOVERY SERVIC MEHTA A, 1999, POWER PLAY STUDY ENR OPUM M, 2000, POWER SECTOR REFORM PALAST G, 2003, DEMOCRACY REGULATION PHADKE A, 2003, EC POLITICAL WKLY, V38 PHONGPAICHIT P, 1998, THAILANDS BOOM BUST PRZEWORSKI A, 1991, DEMOCRACY MARKET POL REID WV, 1998, ENERG POLICY, V26, P233 SALAMEH MG, 2003, ENERG POLICY, V31, P1085 SEYMOUR F, 2002, POWER POLITICS EQUIT STIGLITZ JE, 2002, GLOBALIZATION ITS DI STIGLITZ JE, 2003, ROARING 90 NEW HIST STREETS DG, 2003, ENERGY, V28, P789 SUDING PH, 1996, ENERG POLICY, V24, P437 TELLAM I, 2000, FUEL CHANGE WORLD BA VONHIRSCHHAUSEN C, 2001, POWER UTILITY REREGU VROLIJK C, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE POWER WAMUKONYA N, 2003, ENERG POLICY, V31, P1273 WATTS M, 1994, PROG HUM GEOG, V18, P371 WILLIAMS JH, 2004, PAC AFF, V77, P3 WILLIAMSON J, 1994, POLITICAL EC POLICY WOO CK, 2003, ENERG POLICY, V31, P1103 YEH ET, 2004, PAC AFF, V77, P437 YERGIN D, 1998, COMMANDING HEIGHTS B NR 100 TC 1 J9 ENERGY BP 815 EP 844 PY 2006 PD MAY-JUN VL 31 IS 6-7 GA 014KI UT ISI:000235478500006 ER PT J AU PHILLIPS, VD CHUVELIOV, AV TAKAHASHI, PK TI RENEWABLE-ENERGY PARADOX IN PARADISE - A CASE-STUDY OF HAWAII SO APPLIED ENERGY LA English DT Article C1 IV KURCHATOV ATOM ENERGY INST,MOSCOW 123182,RUSSIA. RP PHILLIPS, VD, UNIV HAWAII MANOA,COLL TROP AGR & HUMAN RESOURCES,HONOLULU,HI 96822. AB Hawaii is committed to replacing imported oil with indigenous, renewable energy resources to enhance the economic and environmental security of the state's citizens. A case study of Hawaii's fuel-energy balance by the end of the 21st century which features two scenarios, a 'Business-as-Usual' energy system, based on imported fossil fuels, and a 'Renewable-Energy' scenario, based on an alternative energy system consisting entirely of indigenous, renewable energy resources, is presented. In the year 2100, a projected total energy consumption of approximately 335 million gigajoules would be provided from a hypothetical renewable-energy system of approximately 13 gigawatts-electric of installed capacity. This system would feature methanol-from-biomass to meet liquid fuel requirements for surface transportation, industrial, commercial, and residential sectors; hydrogen via electrolysis in liquid form for air transportation and as a gaseous fuel for industrial purposes; and electricity generated from geothermal, ocean thermal, wind, and photovoltaic sources for all power applications. A comprehensive economic analysis, including capital costs, operating and maintenance costs, air pollution costs for the total fuel cycle of each energy system, and a local multiplier effect factor of 3.75 per dollar, indicates that between the years of 1987 and 2100 the 'Business-as-Usual' scenario will have expended approximately $600 billion (1986 US dollars), and the 'Renewable-Energy' scenario will have cost approximately $400 billion. By switching from imported fossil fuels to indigenous, renewable energy resources during this time period, Hawaii's citizens could save approximately $200 billion to help preserve paradise. CR 1987 1988 STAT HAW D 1980, EMISSION INVENTORY S 1986, UNIFORM PROVISIONAL 1988, EPA450487024 1988, SEP P INT REN EN C D 1989, DOECE0279 US DEP EN 1989, ENERGY SYSTEM EMISSI 1989, JUL P ENH REN EN DEV 1990, PROJECT 300 MWE COAL BAGLEY MH, 1989, HSPA27 EN REP CHUVELIOV AV, 1989, 9TH P INT C EN ENV M CHUVELIOV AV, 1990, 8TH P WORLD HYDR EN LOVINS AB, 1977, ENERGY PATHS DURABLE NEILL DR, 1989, JAN INT S DEV MAN EN, P3 PHILLIPS V, 1989, 3RD P PAC BAS BIOF W PHILLIPS V, 1989, ENVIRON SCI TECHNOL, V23, P10 PHILLIPS VD, 1989, 9TH P INT C EN ENV M PHILLIPS VF, 1990, 14 P IGT EN BIOM WAS SANMARTIN RL, 1989, ENV EMISSIONS ENERGY SHUPE J, 1982, SCIENCE, V216, P1193 NR 20 TC 0 J9 APPL ENERG BP 299 EP 339 PY 1994 VL 47 IS 4 GA MX924 UT ISI:A1994MX92400001 ER PT J AU Kundzewicz, ZW TI Water and climate - The IPCC TAR perspective SO NORDIC HYDROLOGY LA English DT Article C1 Polish Acad Sci, Res Ctr Agr & Forest Environm, PL-60809 Poznan, Poland. Potsdam Inst Climat Impacts Res, D-14412 Potsdam, Germany. RP Kundzewicz, ZW, Polish Acad Sci, Res Ctr Agr & Forest Environm, Bukowska 19, PL-60809 Poznan, Poland. AB The aim of the present contribution, opening a session on climate change and hydrology at the 2002 Nordic Hydrological Conference in Roros, Norway, is to discuss essential water-related findings of the Third Assessment Report (TAR) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), with particular reference to region-specific issues of the Nordic region. Discussion of impacts of climate variability and change embraces both already observed effects and projections for the future. After review of changes in hydrological processes, climate-related impacts on extreme hydrological events - floods and droughts are outlined. Finally, adaptation and vulnerability are dealt with, including presentation of key water-related regional concerns in various parts of the World. CR ARNELL NW, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 CHIEW FHS, 1993, INT J CLIMATOL, V13, P643 HOUGHTON JT, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 KUNDZEWICZ ZW, 2000, WCDMP45 WORLD CLIM P MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 PARRY ML, 2002, ASSESSMENT POTENTIAL WATSON RT, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 NR 7 TC 0 J9 NORD HYDROL BP 387 EP 398 PY 2003 VL 34 IS 5 GA 774DK UT ISI:000188964300001 ER PT J AU Williams, JE TI The biodiversity crisis and adaptation to climate change: A case study from Australia's forests SO ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING AND ASSESSMENT LA English DT Article C1 Univ Melbourne, Sch Bot, Parkville, Vic 3052, Australia. RP Williams, JE, Univ Melbourne, Sch Bot, Parkville, Vic 3052, Australia. AB If current trends continue, human activities will drastically alter most of the planet's remaining natural ecosystems and their composite biota within a few decades. Compounding the impacts on biodiversity from deleterious management practices is climate variability and change. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) recently concluded that there is ample evidence to suggest climate change is likely to result in significant impacts on biological diversity. These impacts are likely to be exacerbated by the secondary effects of climate change such as changes in the occurrence of wildfire, insect outbreaks and similar disturbances. Current changes in climate are very different from those of the past due to their rate and magnitude, the direct effects of increased atmospheric CO2 concentrations and because highly modified landscapes and an array of threatening processes limit the ability of terrestrial ecosystems and species to respond to changed conditions. One of the primary human adaptation option for conserving biodiversity is considered to be changes in management. The complex and overarching nature of climate change issues emphasises the need for greatly enhanced cooperation between scientists, policy makers, industry and the community to better understand key interaction's and identify options for adaptation. A key challenge is to identify opportunities that facilitate sustainable development by making use of existing technologies and developing policies that enhance the resilience of climate-sensitive sectors. Measures to enhance the resilience of biodiversity must be considered in all of these activities if many ecosystem services essential to humanity are to be sustained. New institutional arrangements appear necessary at the regional and national level to ensure that policy initiatives and research directed at assessing and mitigating the vulnerability of biodiversity to climate change are complementary and undertaken strategically and cost-effectively. Policy implementation at the national level to meet responsibilities arising from the UNFCCC (e.g., the Kyoto Protocol) and the UN Convention on Biological Diversity require greater coordination and integration between economic sectors, since many primary drivers of biodiversity loss and vulnerability are influenced at this level. A case study from the Australian continent is used to illustrate several key issues and discuss a basis for reform, including recommendations for facilitating adaptation to climate variability and change. CR *COMM AUSTR, 1996, AUSTR STAT ENV 1996 *COMM AUSTR, 1996, NAT STRAT CONS AUSTR *COMM AUSTR, 1997, AUSTR 1 APPR REP MON *COMM AUSTR, 1997, FRAM REG SUBN LEV CR AUSTIN MP, 1997, EUCALYPTUS ECOLOGY I, P129 BASHER RE, 1998, REGIONAL IMPACTS CLI, P105 BRERETON R, 1995, BIOL CONSERV, V72, P339 DAILY GC, 1997, ISSUES ECOLOGY DALE VH, 1997, ECOL APPL, V7, P753 DOVERS SR, IN PRESS AMBIO DOVERS SR, 1996, BIODIVERS CONSERV, V5, P1143 FREIDENBURG LK, 1998, CONSERVATION BIOL CO, P66 GRICE AC, 1996, 11 AUSTR WEEDS C P W, P195 HALPIN PN, 1997, ECOL APPL, V7, P828 HUGHES L, 1996, GLOBAL ECOL BIOGEOGR, V5, P23 LANDSBERG JJ, 1996, GREENHOUSE COPING CL, P205 LUBCHENCO J, 1991, ECOLOGY, V72, P371 MOONEY HA, 1994, AMBIO, V23, P74 NORTON TW, 1996, FOREST ECOL MANAG, V85, P21 NORTON TW, 1998, COMMUNICATION PAUSAS JG, 1997, ECOL APPL, V7, P921 ROSETTA M, 1997, CONSERVATION OUTSIDE, P442 WATSON RT, 1998, REGIONAL IMPACTS CLI, V1, P1 WILLIAMS JE, 1994, CLIMATE CHANGE MAINT NR 24 TC 1 J9 ENVIRON MONIT ASSESS BP 65 EP 74 PY 2000 PD MAR VL 61 IS 1 GA 300UB UT ISI:000086270100005 ER PT J AU Fisher, A TI Preliminary findings from the Mid-Atlantic Regional Assessment SO CLIMATE RESEARCH LA English DT Article C1 Penn State Univ, Dept Agr Econ & Rural Sociol, University Pk, PA 16802 USA. RP Fisher, A, Penn State Univ, Dept Agr Econ & Rural Sociol, University Pk, PA 16802 USA. AB This paper summarizes (1) the major positive and negative climate change impacts likely in the Mid-Atlantic Region (MAR), (2) options to make the MAR more resilient to climate change, and (3) priorities for improving such regional assessments. Major findings include: (1) the MAR economy is likely to be reasonably resilient to a somewhat warmer, wetter climate, although there could be substantial impacts on the region's ecosystems and some people will gain while others lose because of climate change; and (2) many cost-effective actions could be taken now to protect and enhance the quality of life in the MAR that would have side benefits of reducing vulnerability to climate variability and change. CR ABLER DG, 1999, MIDATLANTIC REGIONAL ABLER DG, 2000, CLIMATE RES, V14, P185 ABLER DG, 2000, IN PRESS GLOBAL PLAN BENSON K, 2000, CLIMATE RES, V14, P245 CRANE RG, 2000, IN PRESS HUMAN ECOL FISHER A, 1999, MIDATLANTIC REGIONAL FISHER A, 2000, CLIMATE RES, V14, P153 IVERSON LR, 1998, ECOL MONOGR, V68, P465 MCKENNEYEASTERLING M, 2000, CLIMATE RES, V14, P195 NAJJAR RG, 1999, J HYDROL, V219, P7 NAJJAR RG, 2000, CLIMATE RES, V14, P219 NEFF R, 2000, CLIMATE RES, V14, P207 OCONNOR RE, 2000, CLIMATE RES, V14, P255 POLSKY C, 2000, CLIMATE RES, V14, P161 ROGERS CE, 2000, CLIMATE RES, V14, P235 ROSE A, 2000, CLIMATE RES, V14, P175 WATSON RT, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, V1, P1 NR 17 TC 0 J9 CLIMATE RES BP 261 EP 269 PY 2000 PD MAY 2 VL 14 IS 3 GA 326ZD UT ISI:000087766400012 ER PT J AU Widdicombe, S Austen, MC Kendall, MA Olsgard, F Schaanning, MT Dashfield, SL Needham, HR TI Importance of bioturbators for biodiversity maintenance: indirect effects of fishing disturbance SO MARINE ECOLOGY-PROGRESS SERIES LA English DT Article C1 Plymouth Marine Lab, Plymouth PL1 3DH, Devon, England. Norwegian Inst Water Res, N-0411 Oslo, Norway. Univ Oslo, Dept Biol, Sect Marine Biol & Limnol, N-0316 Oslo, Norway. RP Widdicombe, S, Plymouth Marine Lab, Prospect Pl,W Hoe, Plymouth PL1 3DH, Devon, England. AB The relative impact on macrofaunal diversity of 7 naturally co-occurring bioturbators has been examined in a benthic mesocosm experiment, The bioturbators chosen were selected because of their potential vulnerability to the disturbances associated with demersal trawling. The experiment was conducted at the Solbergstrand mesocosm (Norwegian Institute for Water Research) using subtidal sediment collected from Bjornehodebukta, a small sheltered bay in the Oslofjord. For 3 of the bioturbating species (Brissopsis lyrifera, Aphrodita aculeata and Amphiura chiajei) a positive, linear relationship was demonstrated between bioturbator abundance and measures of species richness (number of species and Margalef species richness). It was suggested that the presence of these bioturbating species increased oxygen penetration into the sediment, leading to an enhancement in the ability of benthic systems to process organic material. This had a beneficial effect on the associated fauna in terms of maintaining levels of diversity. For Nephtys caeca, highest species diversity was seen in the low abundance treatments. Predation by N. caeca on small polychaetes is proposed as a possible explanation of the lower diversity in high-density treatments. It is concluded that B. lyrifera, A. aculeata, A. chiajei and N. caeca are functionally similar with respect to setting the diversity of the associated macrobenthic community and may therefore fulfill the same role within the benthic ecosystem. The presence of Calocaris macandreae, Nuculana minuta and Astarte sulcata had no detectable effect on diversity. Trawling has been shown to reduce the abundance of bioturbating species, and the current study demonstrates important implications of this loss on the maintenance of diversity. In addition, the interactions between bioturbation, diversity and organic enrichment highlight the need for management of anthropogenic impacts within the coastal environment in a holistic way rather than by isolation. 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RP Kay, PA, Univ Waterloo, Waterloo, ON N2L 3G1, Canada. AB Sustainability of water resources is often gauged as the gap between supply and projections of demand. This static view, however, is insufficient to judge the ability of a system to cope with uncertainty and variability, and does not monitor progress towards sustainability. That is, sustainability should be viewed as a process. not a goal. Commonly, trued performance indicators such as reliability. resiliency, and vulnerability nt-e some aspects of the concept of sustainability. They are easy to use, can monitor trends. and can be adapted to account for changes in physical and social systems that affect the concept of sustainability. The case of Israel is considered as illustration. The water system and agricultural production dependent on it have exhibited high vulnerability and low resilience and reliability in spite of change to the master water plan at the beginning of the 1990s. 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AB Gilbert White has had a profound influence on natural resources and hazards research, but the philosophy that guides his work has not been dearly defined. White's approach has broad affinities with the pragmatic tradition of American social thought, most notably with the work of John Dewey. This paper compares four major themes in the work of White and Dewey: the precariousness of existence, the pragmatic conception of inquiry, learning from experience, and discourse and democracy. For each theme, I show how similarities and differences between White and Dewey can help to clarify controversies within geography, and directions for future research. 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GF, 1972, PROF GEOGR, V24, P302 WHITE GF, 1978, HUM ECOL, V6, P229 WHITE GF, 1983, NAT RESOUR FORUM, V7, P11 WHITE GF, 1984, ENV PERCEPTION BEHAV, P93 WHITE GF, 1985, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V75, P10 WHITE GF, 1986, SELECTED WRITINGS G, P176 WHITE GF, 1986, SELECTED WRITINGS G, P278 WHITE GF, 1986, SELECTED WRITINGS G, P393 WHITE GF, 1988, FLOOD CONTROL CHALLE WHITE GF, 1991, COMMUNICATION WHITE GF, 1991, PERSPECTIVES BEHAVIO, P276 WHITE GF, 1992, IBS NEWLSETTER, V1, P3 WHITE GF, 1992, NATURAL HAZARDS OBSE, V16, P1 WHYTE A, 1986, THEMES WORK GF WHITE, P240 WILSON ER, 1975, UPHILL PEACE QUAKER WOLMAN MG, 1986, THEMES WORK GF WHITE, P1 YARROW CHM, 1978, QUAKER EXPERIENCES I NR 144 TC 11 J9 ANN ASSN AMER GEOGR BP 587 EP 607 PY 1992 PD DEC VL 82 IS 4 GA KC292 UT ISI:A1992KC29200002 ER PT J AU Lahsen, M Nobre, CA TI Challenges of connecting international science and local level sustainability efforts: the case of the Large-Scale Biosphere-Atmosphere Experiment in Amazonia SO ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE & POLICY LA English DT Article C1 Univ Colorado, Ctr Sci & Technol Policy Res, Boulder, CO 80309 USA. INPE, BR-12227010 Sao Jose Dos Campos, SP, Brazil. RP Lahsen, M, Care of Silveira J, Rua Agariba 79 Casa 5,Engenho Novo, BR-20715030 Rio De Janeiro, Brazil. AB The Large-Scale Biosphere-Atmosphere Experiment in Amazonia (LBA) is a multi-year Brazil-led international environmental science experiment funded by the U.S. National Aeronautics Space Administration, the European Union and Brazil. It is intended to inform decision making under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) as well as Brazilian national environmental decision-making related to the Amazon region. Focused on the Amazon region, and primarily on the Brazilian Amazon, the LBA is a case study in issues that can arise when doing globally oriented research in a less developed country setting and a test of assumptions that such research simultaneously benefits global and local levels. This article offers a qualitative evaluation of the extent to which the LBA has achieved its goals and identifies structural obstacles within science that must be overcome to improve the fit between international science programs and efforts to nurture more sustainable use of natural resources in a less developed country. (C) 2006 Published by Elsevier Ltd. 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RP Aarset, B, Fdn Res & Econ & Business Adm, Ctr Fisheries Econ, Breiviksvegen 40, N-5045 Bergen, Norway. AB Political decision is a necessary, but not sufficient. precondition for policy implementation. The salmon-farming industry in Washington State provides an example on how institutions affect the implementation of political goals. This article addresses the institutional vulnerability of the marine salmon-farming industry in Washington State. The intersection of human society and nature in the context of salmon farming is composed of three distinct institutional carriers that concern the farmers' access to the coastal area: floating net pens. confinement in the coastal commons, and salmon as a farmed species. Each of these areas of conflict describes an encounter between salmon farming and a segment of public life where institutions give opposing interest group,, access to the policy formation process. Only a few farms are in operation, and at present increased production are unlikely. The industrial organization of the industry is contrasted to two large fin-fish-farming industries, the catfish-farming industry in the southeast USA and the salmon-farming industry in Norway, which provide examples of the effect of supportive and organizing institutions. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. 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RP Halvorson, SJ, Univ Montana, Missoula, MT 59812 USA. AB Many mountain peoples face water and environmental health problems. At particular risk is the health of women and of children who live in remote and marginalized mountain areas. Environmental health concerns are often associated with the waterborne parasitic and endemic diseases responsible for much child morbidity and mortality in the Karakoram-Himalaya of northern Pakistan. Poor environmental health and water-quality conditions affect child survival, and challenges to viable local interventions are severe. Transformations in women's productive and reproductive work have health consequences for children, and gender and household dynamics shape and mediate women's responses to environmental health risks. Significantly, these findings draw attention to the need for improved water and health policy, especially policy that recognizes different gender and child-care roles in mountainous regions of the developing world. 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A contribution to integrated coastal zone management SO GEOLOGIE EN MIJNBOUW LA English DT Article C1 Netherlands Inst Appl Geosci, TNO, Natl Geol Survey, NL-3508 TA Utrecht, Netherlands. RP de Groot, TAM, Netherlands Inst Appl Geosci, TNO, Natl Geol Survey, POB 80015, NL-3508 TA Utrecht, Netherlands. AB This Special Issue deals with the impact of climate change on western European coastal systems. Notwithstanding the inherent problems of studying geological data in terms of climate shifts, the results show that on the meso- and the macroscale of time, climatic forcing is a major drive for coastal change. However, its impact is largely influenced by other factors. Sediment availability plays a dominant role in the evolution of coastal systems and it can be considered one of the most important thresholds at the land-ocean interface. Sea-level changes are expected to have a significant impact on most European coasts. There is particular concern for the tidally influenced flats and marshes, and for those coastal areas known to have already a net sediment deficit and to be threatened by erosion. Areas where isostatic uplift has countered sea-level rise until now, are expected to become subject to coastal erosion in the near future under an accelerated sea-level rise scenario. The sensitivity and vulnerability of coastal systems to climate shifts is shown to be largely controlled by storm magnitude and fetch. A particular case of vulnerability is the impact of tsunamis. Finally, the consequences of human interference have been demonstrated in many cases. The implementation of geoscientific studies for rational, comprehensive and cost-effective strategies on a regional or national level of integrated coastal zone management is reviewed. 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WHO, CH-1211 Geneva, Switzerland. RP Haines, A, Univ London London Sch Hyg & Trop Med, Keppel St, London WC1E 7HT, England. AB It is now widely accepted that climate change is occurring as a result of the accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere arising from the combustion of fossil fuels. Climate change may affect health through a range of pathways-eg, as a result of increased frequency and intensity of heat waves, reduction in cold-related deaths, increased floods and droughts, changes in the distribution of vector-borne diseases, and effects on the risk of disasters and malnutrition. The overall balance of effects on health is likely to be negative and populations in low-income countries are likely to be particularly vulnerable to the adverse effects. The experience of the 2003 heat wave in Europe shows that high-income countries might also be adversely affected. Adaptation to climate change requires public-health strategies and improved surveillance. Mitigation of climate change by reducing the use of fossil fuels and increasing the use of a number of renewable energy technologies should improve health in the near term by reducing exposure to air pollution. CR 2003, IMPACT SANITAIRE VAG *INT PAN CLIM CHAN, 2001, CLIM CHANG 2001 IMP *SOZ BAD WUERTT, 2004, GES AUSW HITZ AUG 20 *WHO, 2002, WORLD HLTH REP 2002 AHERN M, 2005, EPIDEMIOL REV, V27, P36 ALBERING HJ, 1999, ENVIRON HEALTH PERSP, V107, P37 BOTELHO J, 2005, ONDA CALOR AGOSTO 20 BOUMA MJ, 1997, LANCET, V350, P1435 CONTI S, 2005, ENVIRON RES, V98, P390 DIOP M, 1994, 453 WASH US AG INT D DUCLOS P, 1991, EUR J EPIDEMIOL, V7, P365 EMANUEL K, 2005, NATURE, V436, P686 ESTRELA T, 2001, SUSTAINABLE WATER 3 EURIPIDOU E, 2004, J PUBLIC HEALTH, V26, P376 FEW R, IN PRESS FLOOD HAZAR FRENCH J, 1983, PUBLIC HLTH REP, V98, P584 GARSSEN J, 2005, EURO SURVEILL, V10, P165 GHEBREYESUS TA, 1999, BRIT MED J, V319, P663 GRIZE L, 2005, SWISS MED WKLY, V135, P200 HAINES A, 2000, GLOBAL CHANGE HUMAN, V1, P2 HAINES A, 2004, JAMA-J AM MED ASSOC, V291, P99 HALES S, 2002, LANCET, V360, P830 HULME M, 2002, UKC1P02 E ANGL SCH JACOBSON MZ, 2005, SCIENCE, V308, P1901 JOHNSON H, 2005, HLTH STAT Q, V25, P6 KAMMEN DM, 1995, SCI AM, V273, P72 KOVATS RS, 2001, PHILOS T ROY SOC B, V356, P1057 KOVATS RS, 2003, LANCET, V361, P1481 KOVATS RS, 2005, RISK ANAL, V25, P1409 LANGNER J, 2005, ATMOS ENVIRON, V39, P1129 LETERTRE A, 2006, EPIDEMIOLOGY, V17, P75 LINDGREN E, 2000, ENVIRON HEALTH PERSP, V108, P119 LUTERBACHER J, 2004, SCIENCE, V303, P1499 MARTIN PH, 1995, AMBIO, V24, P200 MCMICHAEL AJ, 1999, BRIT MED J, V319, P977 MCMICHAEL AJ, 2004, COMP QUANTIFICATION, V2, P1543 MCMICHAEL AJ, 2006, LANCET, V367, P859 MENNE B, 2005, CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPT MEUSEL D, 2005, EXTREME WEATHER EVEN, P175 MURRAY CJL, 1996, GLOBAL BURDEN DIS CO NOJI EK, 1997, PUBLIC HLTH CONSEQUE PARRY ML, 1998, NATURE, V395, P741 PURSE BV, 2005, NAT REV MICROBIOL, V3, P171 ROGERS DJ, 2000, SCIENCE, V289, P1763 SIDDIQUE AK, 1991, J DIARRHOEAL DIS RES, V9, P310 SIMON F, 2005, EURO SURVEILL, V10, P156 SKARPHEDINSSON S, 2005, EMERG INFECT DIS, V117, P1055 SMALL J, 2003, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V100, P15341 SMITH JB, 1996, CLIMATE RES, V6, P193 STOTT PA, 2004, NATURE, V432, P610 TANSER FC, 2003, LANCET, V362, P1792 THOMAS CJ, 2004, TRENDS PARASITOL, V20, P216 VANDENTORREN S, 2004, AM J PUBLIC HEALTH, V94, P1518 WANG X, 1999, WHOSDEPHE9901 WEBSTER PJ, 2005, SCIENCE, V309, P1844 WIGLEY TML, 1996, NATURE, V379, P240 NR 56 TC 4 J9 LANCET BP 2101 EP 2109 PY 2006 PD JUN 24 VL 367 IS 9528 GA 058HZ UT ISI:000238657400035 ER PT J AU Thuiller, W Broennimann, O Hughes, G Alkemade, JRM Midgley, GF Corsi, F TI Vulnerability of African mammals to anthropogenic climate change under conservative land transformation assumptions SO GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY LA English DT Article C1 Univ Grenoble 1, CNRS, UMR 5553, Lab Ecol Alpine, F-38041 Grenoble 9, France. S African Natl Biodivers Inst, Global Change Res Grp, ZA-7735 Cape Town, South Africa. Univ Lausanne, Lab Biol Conservat, CH-1015 Lausanne, Switzerland. Netherlands Environm Assessment Agcy, MNP RIVM, NL-3720 AH Bilthoven, Netherlands. Int Inst Geoinformat Sci & Earth Observat, NL-7500 AA Enschede, Netherlands. RP Thuiller, W, Univ Grenoble 1, CNRS, UMR 5553, Lab Ecol Alpine, BP 53, F-38041 Grenoble 9, France. AB Recent observations show that human-induced climate change (CC) and land transformation (LT) are threatening wildlife globally. Thus, there is a need to assess the sensitivity of wildlife on large spatial scales and evaluate whether national parks (NPs), a key conservation tools used to protect species, will meet their mandate under future CC and LT conditions. Here, we assess the sensitivity of 277 mammals at African scale to CC at 10' resolution, using static LT assumptions in a 'first-cut' estimate, in the absence of credible future LT trends. We examine the relationship between species' current distribution and macroclimatic variables using generalized additive models, and include LT indirectly as a filter. Future projections are derived using two CC scenarios (for 2050 and 2080) to estimate the spatial patterns of loss and gain in species richness that might ultimately result. We then apply the IUCN Red List criteria A3(c) of potential range loss to evaluate species sensitivity. We finally estimate the sensitivity of 141 NPs in terms of both species richness and turnover. Assuming no spread of species, 10-15% of the species are projected to fall within the critically endangered or extinct categories by 2050 and between 25% and 40% by 2080. Assuming unlimited species spread, less extreme results show proportions dropping to approximately 10-20% by 2080. Spatial patterns of richness loss and gain show contrasting latitudinal patterns with a westward range shift of species around the species-rich equatorial zone in central Africa, and an eastward shift in southern Africa, mainly because of latitudinal aridity gradients across these ecological transition zones. Xeric shrubland NPs may face significant richness losses not compensated by species influxes. Other NPs might expect substantial losses and influxes of species. On balance, the NPs might ultimately realize a substantial shift in the mammalian species composition of a magnitude unprecedented in recent geological time. To conclude, the effects of global CC and LT on wildlife communities may be most noticeable not as a loss of species from their current ranges, but instead as a fundamental change in community composition. 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AB Conceptual equations are presented for the net benefits, total risk, and total vulnerability associated with hazard zone occupation. It is shown that, as they are polycausal phenomena, landslides require a more sophisticated approach to this form of analysis than that employed for most other forms of hazard. Three examples of landsliding are examined. At Cuyocuyo, in the Peruvian Cordillera Oriental, slope instability is virtually inevitable, but human intervention may be disturbing some very fragile natural equilibria. At Calciano, in southern Italy, deforestation has resulted in a mudflow disaster, although man-made factors are not the only causes at work. Finally, in the Valle dell'Orco (also in southern Italy) demographic and agrarian change have aided the partial metamorphosis of the catchment into a large-scale mudflow complex (although the longer-term causes are natural, tectonic ones). These examples illustrate parts of the continuum that extends from dominant natural to dominant anthropogenic causes. Human intervention has played a key role in stimulating the natural antecedents of landslides occurring in the study areas. It is concluded that risk perception has not been wide enough to promote adequate risk mitigation, in part because of a failure properly to conceive of landslides as polycausal phenomena, in which man-made causes effectively cannot-and should not-be separated from natural ones. 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RP Garcia-Mora, MR, Univ Sevilla, Dept Biol Vegetal & Ecol, Apdo 1095, E-41080 Seville, Spain. AB The investigation reported here is concerned with the use of plant diversity measures for coastal dune monitoring. The original set of recorded plant species on dune systems was broken into 3 functionally homogeneous groups, which allow ecological comparisons among foredune vegetation on a much wider sense than traditional taxonomic approaches. Plant diversity was measured both, as species richness and as the rate of species number increase with area. Plant diversity values were tested as a dependent variable of a coastal dune vulnerability Index. Increasing coastal dunes vulnerability, caused by natural or human events, lowered the rate of species increase with area within the plant functional type associated to prograding foredunes. Results suggest that plant diversity within this functional type, measured as the slope of the species-area curve, may be used as a management tool for predicting coastal dune vulnerability. 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RP Rashed, T, San Diego State Univ, Dept Geog, San Diego, CA 92182 USA. AB Assessing urban vulnerability to natural hazards such as earthquakes can be regarded as an ill-structured problem (i.e. a problem for which there is no unique, identifiable, objectively optimal solution). A review of the literature indicates a number of contrasting definitions of what vulnerability means, as well as numerous conflicting perspectives on what should or should not be included within the broad assessment of vulnerability in cities. This paper reports on the findings from a project in which a GIS methodology has been developed to assess urban vulnerability through a spatial analytical procedure. First, we highlight the deficiencies of current GIS approaches to urban vulnerability analysis and discuss the ill-structured nature of the vulnerability problem. We then propose a working definition for vulnerability assessment in which vulnerability is thought of as a spatial decision problem under the conditions of uncertainty. Next, we present a methodology to incorporate this definition into a GIS framework that combines elements from the techniques of spatial multicriteria analysis and fuzzy logic. The application of this methodology is then illustrated with a case study from Los Angeles County. The results suggest that the proposed methodology may provide a new approach for analyzing vulnerability that can add to our understanding of human/hazards interaction. 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RP Pandey, DN, Forestry Training Inst, Jaipur 302015, Rajasthan, India. AB Land-use options that increase resilience and reduce vulnerability of contemporary societies are fundamental to livelihood improvement and adaptation to environmental change. Agroforestry as a traditional land-use adaptation may potentially support livelihood improvement through simultaneous production of food, fodder and firewood as well as mitigation of the impact of climate change. Drawing on the representative literature, here, I critically review the contribution of agroforestry systems in India to: (i) biodiversity conservation; (ii) yield of goods and services to society; (iii) augmentation of the carbon storage in agroecosystems; (iv) enhancing the fertility of the soils, and (v) providing social and economic well-being to people. Agroforestry systems in India contribute variously to ecological, social and economic functions, but they are only complementary - and not as an alternative - to natural ecosystems. To promote well-being of the society, management of multifunctional agroforestry needs to be strengthened by innovations in domestication of useful species and crafting market regimes for the products derived from agroforestry and ethnoforestry systems. Future research is required to eliminate many of the uncertainties that remain, and also carefully test the main functions attributed to agroforestry against alternative land-use options in order to know unequivocally as to what extent agroforestry served these purposes. CR *AFD ADB DFID, 2003, POV CLIM CHANG RED V *MIN ENV FOR, 1999, NAT FOR ACT PROGR, V1 ALBRECHT A, 2003, AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON, V99, P15 ANGELSEN A, AGROFORESTRY BIODIVE, P87 ARUNACHALAM A, 2002, CURR SCI INDIA, V83, P117 BAWA KS, 2004, SCIENCE, V306, P227 BELCHER B, 2005, WORLD DEV, V33, P1435 BELCHER BM, 2005, INT FOREST REV, V7, P82 BHATT BP, 2003, J SUSTAIN AGR, V22, P99 BOWONDER B, 1988, WORLD DEV, V16, P1213 BRADFORD A, 2003, ENVIRON URBAN, V15, P157 BRIDGE J, 1996, ANNU REV PHYTOPATHOL, V34, P201 CARNEY D, 1998, SUSTAINABLE RURAL LI CUNNINGHAM A, 2005, CARVING OUT FUTURE F DAGAR JC, 2001, LAND DEGRAD DEV, V12, P107 DHYANI SK, 1998, AGROFOREST SYST, V44, P1 DROPPELMANN K, 2003, J ARID ENVIRON, V54, P571 DUNIN FX, 2002, AGR WATER MANAGE, V53, P259 DWIVEDI MK, 2001, AGR MARKET, V44, P12 ELLIS F, 2000, RURAL LIVELIHOODS ID GRIFFITH DM, 2000, CONSERV BIOL, V14, P325 GUPTA GN, 1998, AGROFOREST SYST, V40, P149 JAISWAL AK, 2002, NEW AGR, V13, P13 KAUR B, 2000, APPL SOIL ECOL, V15, P283 KAUR B, 2002, AGROFOREST SYST, V54, P21 KOHLI A, 2003, AGROFOREST SYST, V58, P109 KUMAR A, 1998, ANN ARID ZONE, V37, P153 KUMAR A, 2004, PSYCHIAT RES-NEUROIM, V130, P131 KUMAR BM, 2001, AGROFOREST SYST, V52, P133 KUMAR SS, 1999, AGROFOREST SYST, V46, P131 LEHMANN J, 1998, FOREST ECOL MANAG, V111, P157 LOVENSTEIN HM, 1991, FOREST ECOL MANAG, V45, P59 MAHAPATRA AK, 1999, BIOMASS BIOENERG, V17, P291 MAIKHURI RK, 2000, AGROFOREST SYST, V48, P257 MAKUNDI WR, 2004, ENV DEV SUSTAINABILI, V6, P235 MANNA MC, 2003, J SUSTAIN AGR, V21, P87 MAXTED N, 2002, GENET RESOUR CROP EV, V49, P31 MILNE G, 2006, UNLOCKING OPPORTUNIT MINJ AV, 2000, INDIAN FOR, V126, P788 MONTAGNINI F, 2004, AGROFOREST SYST, V61, P281 MYERS N, 1999, CURR SCI INDIA, V76, P507 NARAIN P, 1997, AGROFOREST SYST, V39, P175 NOBLE IR, 1997, SCIENCE, V277, P522 OSMAN M, 1998, AGROFOREST SYST, V42, P91 PANDEY CB, 2000, AGROFOREST SYST, V49, P53 PANDEY CB, 2003, AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON, V96, P133 PANDEY DN, 1993, J BOMBAY NAT HIST S, V90, P58 PANDEY DN, 1996, VANISHING WOODS PART, P222 PANDEY DN, 1998, ETHNOFORESTRY LOCAL PANDEY DN, 2001, SCIENCE, V293, P1763 PANDEY DN, 2002, CLIM POLICY, V2, P367 PANDEY DN, 2002, CURR SCI INDIA, V83, P593 PANDEY DN, 2003, CURR SCI INDIA, V85, P46 PANDEY N, 2005, SOC ADAPTATION ABRUT PATEL LB, 1996, BIOL FERT SOILS, V21, P149 PRASAD R, 2000, TREES OUTSIDE FOREST PURI S, 1995, J ARID ENVIRON, V30, P441 PURI S, 2001, AGROFOREST SYST, V51, P57 PURI S, 2004, AGROFOREST SYST, V61, P437 QULI SMS, 2001, INDIAN FOR, V127, P1251 RAI SN, 2001, INDIAN FOREST, V127, P263 RAJVANSHI AK, 2002, CURR SCI INDIA, V82, P632 RASMUSSEN PE, 1998, SCIENCE, V282, P893 RAVINDRANATH NH, 1995, BIOMASS ENERGY ENV D, P376 SATHAYE JA, 1998, ANNU REV ENERG ENV, V23, P387 SAYER JA, 2004, SCI SUSTAINABLE DEV, P268 SEMWAL RL, 2003, BIOMASS BIOENERG, V24, P3 SHARMA G, 2002, ANN BOT-LONDON, V89, P273 SHARMA R, 1996, AGROFOREST SYST, V35, P239 SHARMA R, 1996, AGROFOREST SYST, V35, P255 SHASTRI CM, 2002, CURR SCI INDIA, V82, P1080 SINGH B, 1998, PLANT SOIL, V203, P15 SINGH MP, 1994, J PALYNOL, V30, P157 SUNDRIYAL M, 2001, ECON BOT, V55, P377 SWAMINATHAN C, 2001, BIOL AGRIC HORTIC, V18, P259 THIES C, 1999, SCIENCE, V285, P893 TURNER NC, 2002, AGR WATER MANAGE, V53, P271 UNNI NVM, 2000, INT J REMOTE SENS, V21, P3269 VISWANATH S, 2000, AGROFOREST SYST, V50, P157 WALSH MJ, 1999, SCI TOTAL ENVIRON, V240, P145 NR 80 TC 0 J9 CURR SCI BP 455 EP 463 PY 2007 PD FEB 25 VL 92 IS 4 GA 144CT UT ISI:000244773700020 ER PT J AU Gerbens-Leenes, PW Nonhebel, S TI Critical water requirements for food, methodology and policy consequences for food security SO FOOD POLICY LA English DT Article C1 Univ Groningen, IVEM, NL-9747 AG Groningen, Netherlands. RP Gerbens-Leenes, PW, Univ Groningen, IVEM, Nijenborg 4, NL-9747 AG Groningen, Netherlands. AB Food security and increasing water scarcity have a dominant place on the food policy agenda. Food security requires sufficient water of adequate quality because water is a prerequisite for plant growth. Nowadays, agriculture accounts for 70% of the worldwide human fresh water use. The expected increase of global food demand requires a great deal of effort to supply sufficient fresh water. If a doubling of agricultural production goes along with a doubling of the use of water, current fresh water resources are probably not sufficient in the long run. The objective of this study is to develop a generally applicable method for the assessment of crop growth-related water flows or "transpirational water" requirements of agricultural crops. Traditionally, agricultural studies have made assessments of water requirements for specific situations to provide a yield. This study uses the agricultural information the other way around. Water had to be present for a growth to occur. Based on the strong linearity of processes taking place in all green plants, the study develops a method to calculate the growth-related factor of crop water requirements, assesses the impact of crop characteristics on water requirements, and evaluates options to reduce the use of water by changing food consumption patterns. The study calculates "transpirational water" requirements for a representative group of crops with different functions for human nutrition, such as staple CR *CENTR VEEV, 1997, VOED LANDB VOED VEEV *FAO, 1999, FAO STAT SER, V156 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 *KNMI CHO, 1988, VAN PENM NAAR MAKK N *NED VOED, 1973, VOORL VOED *UN POP DIV, 2002, WORLD POP PROSP 2002 ARKEBAUER TJ, 1994, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V68, P221 BREEDVELD BC, 1998, VOEDINGSCENTRUM, P39 BRUINSMA J, 2003, WORLD AGR 2015 2030 BUSIHAND TA, 1980, NEERSLAG VERDAMPING CATSBERG CME, 1997, LEVENSMIDDELENLEER DEVRIES FWT, 1983, ENCY PLANT PHYSL N D, V12 DEVRIES FWT, 1995, ECOREGIONAL APPROACH DEWIT CT, 1958, TRANSPIRATION CROP Y FALKENMARK M, 1989, FOOD NATURAL RESOURC, P164 FALKENMARK M, 1997, LAND RESOURCES EDGE, P929 GOUDRIAAN J, SIMULATION PLANT GRO, P98 GOUDRIAAN J, 2001, TERRESTRIAL GLOBAL P, P301 HABEKOTTE B, 1996, WINTER OILSEED RAPE HABEKOTTE B, 1997, EUR J AGRON, V7, P315 IVENS WPF, 1992, WORLD FOOD PRODUCTIO LECOEUR J, 2001, EUR J AGRON, V14, P173 LEHNER B, KASSEL WORLD WATER S, V5, P34109 MONTEITH JL, 1977, EXPL AGR, V14, P1 MONTEITH JL, 1977, PHILOS T ROY SOC B, V281, P277 MONTEITH JL, 1994, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V68, P213 PIMENTEL D, 1997, BIOSCIENCE, V47, P97 PINSTRUPANDERSEN P, 2000, FOOD POLICY, V25, P125 PUTTIN JJ, 1995, EENVOUDIG VOEDZAAM RENAULT D, 1999, AGR WATER MANAGE, V45, P275 ROCKSTROM J, 1999, PHYS CHEM EARTH PT B, V24, P375 ROSEGRANT MW, 1998, WATER POLICY, V1, P567 SCHULZE RE, 2000, AMBIO, V29, P12 SIBMA L, 1968, NETH J AGR RES, V16, P211 SMITH M, 1991, REPORT EXPERT CONSUL SMITH M, 1992, 46 FAO TILMAN D, 2002, NATURE, V418, P671 VERKERK G, 1986, BINAS INFORMATIEBOEK WALLACE JS, 2000, AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON, V82, P105 WOODWARD J, 1916, PHILOS T ROYAL SOC ZHANG HP, 1998, PLANT SOIL, V201, P295 NR 41 TC 0 J9 FOOD POLICY BP 547 EP 564 PY 2004 PD OCT VL 29 IS 5 GA 878HS UT ISI:000225638100005 ER PT J AU Haw, M Cocklin, C Mercer, D TI A pinch of salt: landowner perception and adjustment to the salinity hazard in Victoria, Australia SO JOURNAL OF RURAL STUDIES LA English DT Review C1 Monash Univ, Sch Geog & Environm Sci, Melbourne, Vic 3168, Australia. RP Cocklin, C, Monash Univ, Sch Geog & Environm Sci, Melbourne, Vic 3168, Australia. AB Land degradation is one of the most critical environmental issues facing many countries today. The need to maintain productive agriculture has fuelled interest in finding more appropriate policy and management responses to environmental change, including the various forms of land degradation. While the processes resulting in degraded land are often natural phenomena, the term "land degradation" is used in this paper to refer to their anthropogenic acceleration and the consequent impacts on agricultural potential. Forms of land degradation include salinity, erosion, chemical contamination and changes in soil structure. The research reported here is concerned specifically with irrigation-induced soil salinity in Victoria, Australia. The paper is based on the hazards research paradigm developed within the social sciences. We use this paradigm to inform our inquiry into perceptions of, and responses to, the salinity hazard in a region of the state of Victoria known as the Tragowel Plains. Our investigation, based on questionnaire surveys and farm case studies, reveals a relatively high level of awareness of the salinity hazard. Adjustments to the hazard include changes in both land management and in land use. As the extent of such hazards increases it is imperative that research continues with a view to better understanding these human-environment relations in the context of specific environments. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. 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NR 0 TC 0 J9 J ENVIRON LAW BP 209 EP 228 PY 1991 VL 3 IS 2 GA GR901 UT ISI:A1991GR90100002 ER PT J AU Cerri, CEP Sparovek, G Bernoux, M Easterling, WE Melillo, JM Cerri, CC TI Tropical agriculture and global warming: Impacts and mitigation options SO SCIENTIA AGRICOLA LA English DT Review C1 USP, ESALQ, Dept Ciencia Solo, BR-13418900 Piracicaba, SP, Brazil. IRD, F-34394 Montpellier, France. Penn State Univ, Penn State Inst Environm, University Pk, PA 16802 USA. Marine Biol Lab, Ctr Ecosyst, Woods Hole, MA 02543 USA. USP, CENA, Lab Biogeoquim Ambiental, BR-13400970 Piracicaba, SP, Brazil. RP Cerri, CEP, USP, ESALQ, Dept Ciencia Solo, CP 09, BR-13418900 Piracicaba, SP, Brazil. AB The intensive land use invariably has several negative effects on the environment and crop production if conservative practices are not adopted. Reduction in soil organic matter (SOM) quantity means gas emission (mainly CO2, CH4, N2O) to the atmosphere and increased global warming. Soil sustainability is also affected, since remaining SOM quality changes. Alterations can be verified, for example, by soil desegregation and changes in structure. The consequences are erosion, reduction in nutrient availability for the plants and lower water retention capacity. These and other factors reflect negatively on crop productivity and sustainability of the soil -plant-atmosphere system. Conversely, adoption of "best management practices", such as conservation tillage, can partly reverse the process - they are aimed at increasing the input of organic matter to the soil and/or decreasing the rates at which soil organic matter decomposes. 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AGR 2 F, P286 SILVA AL, 2006, SCI AGR, V63, P105 SILVA GMA, 1997, SECAPI, V1, P55 SIMOES MD, 2005, SCI AGR, V62, P199 SIQUEIRA OJF, 1994, REV BRASILEIRA AGROM, V2, P115 SIQUEIRA OJF, 2001, MUDANCAS CLIMATICAS, V1, P33 SISTI CPJ, 2004, SOIL TILL RES, V76, P39 SIVAKUMAR MVK, 2005, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V70, P31 SIX J, 1999, SOIL SCI SOC AM J, V63, P1350 SIX J, 2002, AGRONOMIE, V22, P755 SMITH P, 1998, GLOB CHANGE BIOL, V4, P679 SOARES JLN, 2005, SCI AGR, V62, P165 SPAGNOLLO E, 1999, ENC BRAS SUBST HUM 3, P229 TESTA VM, 1992, REV BRASILEIRA CIENC, V16, P107 THORBURN PJ, 2001, FIELD CROP RES, V70, P223 TRUMBORE SE, 1995, GLOBAL BIOGEOCHEM CY, V9, P515 VASCONCELLOS CA, 1998, PESQUI AGROPECU BRAS, V33, P1897 VENZKE SP, 2002, FERTIBIO 2002 ZOTARELLI L, 2003, C BRAS CIENC SOL RIB NR 116 TC 0 J9 SCI AGRIC BP 83 EP 99 PY 2007 PD JAN-FEB VL 64 IS 1 GA 143PX UT ISI:000244736100013 ER PT J AU Metni, M El-Fadel, M Sadek, S Kayal, R El Khoury, DL TI Groundwater resources in Lebanon: A vulnerability assessment SO INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF WATER RESOURCES DEVELOPMENT LA English DT Article C1 Amer Univ Beirut, Water Resources Ctr, Beirut, Lebanon. RP El-Fadel, M, Amer Univ Beirut, Water Resources Ctr, Bliss St,POB 11-0236, Beirut, Lebanon. AB This paper presents a regional groundwater vulnerability assessment for Lebanon using the DRASTIC model coupled with a GIS-based framework to prioritize protection efforts, whereby the most vulnerable areas to groundwater are targeted first, thus optimizing the allocation of financial and human resources. The objective of the study is to initiate a systematic approach to better manage and protect the country's groundwater resources. CR *EUR COOP FIELD SC, 2000, COST ACT 620 MID TER *LEB ARM, 1962, COUNTR TOP MAP *TUB, 1999, GROUNDW VULN PROJ PA *UNDP, 1970, LIB ET DES EAUX SOUT ALLER L, 1987, DRASTIC STANDARDIZED DARWISH TM, 2000, EXPERT GROUP M IMPLI DOERFLIGER N, 1998, PRACTICAL GUIDE GROU DOERFLIGER N, 1999, ENVIRON GEOL, V39, P165 DUBERTRET L, 1955, CARTE GEOLOGIQUE LIB ELFADEL M, 2000, WATER RES DEV, V16, P615 ELFADEL M, 2000, WATER RESOURCES MANA ELFADEL M, 2001, WATER POLICY, V3, P425 FREEZE A, 1979, GROUNDWATER GEZE B, 1956, CARTE RECONNAISSANCE MARTIN N, 2000, P EXP GROUP M IMPL G METNI M, 2002, THESIS DEP CIVIL ENV PATHAN M, 1977, THESIS AM U BEIRUT L PELTEKIAN A, 1980, THESIS AM U BERIUT L NR 18 TC 0 J9 INT J WATER RESOUR DEV BP 475 EP 491 PY 2004 PD DEC VL 20 IS 4 GA 881VI UT ISI:000225897100001 ER PT J AU Hay, SI Cox, J Rogers, DJ Randolph, SE Stern, DI Shanks, GD Myers, MF Snow, RW TI Climate change and the resurgence of malaria in the East African highlands SO NATURE LA English DT Article C1 Univ Oxford, Dept Zool, TALA Res Grp, Oxford OX1 3PS, England. Kenya Med Res Inst Wellcome Trust Collaborat Prog, Nairobi, Kenya. Univ London London Sch Hyg & Trop Med, Dept Infect & Trop Dis, London WC1E 7HT, England. Univ Oxford, Dept Zool, Oxford Tick Res Grp, Oxford OX1 3PS, England. Australian Natl Univ, Ctr Resource & Environm Studies, Canberra, ACT 0200, Australia. USA, Med Res Unit Kenya, Nairobi, Kenya. Decis Syst Technol Inc, Rockville, MD 20850 USA. Univ Oxford, John Radcliffe Hosp, Ctr Trop Med, Oxford OX3 9DU, England. RP Hay, SI, Univ Oxford, Dept Zool, TALA Res Grp, S Parks Rd, Oxford OX1 3PS, England. AB The public health and economic consequences of Plasmodium falciparum malaria are once again regarded as priorities for global development. There has been much speculation on whether anthropogenic climate change is exacerbating the malaria problem, especially in areas of high altitude where P. falciparum transmission is limited by low temperature(1-4). The International Panel on Climate Change has concluded that there is likely to be a net extension in the distribution of malaria and an increase in incidence within this range(5). We investigated long-term meteorological trends in four high-altitude sites in East Africa, where increases in malaria have been reported in the past two decades. Here we show that temperature, rainfall, vapour pressure and the number of months suitable for P. falciparum transmission have not changed significantly during the past century or during the period of reported malaria resurgence. A high degree of temporal and spatial variation in the climate of East Africa suggests further that claimed associations between local malaria resurgences and regional changes in climate are overly simplistic. CR *NAT RES COUNC, 2001, WEATH CLIM EC INF DI BODKER R, 2000, GLOBAL CHANGE HUMAN, V1, P134 BOX GEP, 1970, J AM STAT ASSOC, V65, P1509 DICKEY DA, 1979, J AM STAT ASSOC, V74, P427 DICKEY DA, 1981, ECONOMETRICA, V49, P1057 DIXON S, 1950, E AFR MED J, V27, P10 EPSTEIN PR, 1998, B AM METEOROL SOC, V79, P409 GARNHAM PCC, 1948, J NATL MALAR SOC, V7, P275 GRANGER CWJ, 1974, J ECONOMETRICS, V2, P111 HAY SI, 2000, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V97, P9335 HOUGHTON JT, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 KILIAN AHD, 1999, T ROY SOC TROP MED H, V93, P22 KINGUYU SM, 2000, J CLIMATE, V13, P2876 LINDBLADE KA, 1999, T ROY SOC TROP MED H, V93, P480 LOEVINSOHN ME, 1994, LANCET, V343, P714 MARIMBU J, 1993, B SOC PATHOL EXOT, V86, P399 MARTENS P, 1999, AM SCI, V87, P534 MATOLA YG, 1987, J TROP MED HYG, V90, P127 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 MCMICHAEL AJ, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE HUMAN MOUCHET J, 1997, B SOC PATHOL EXOT, V90, P162 MOUCHET J, 1998, J AM MOSQUITO CONTR, V14, P121 NEW M, 1999, J CLIMATE, V12, P829 NEW M, 2000, J CLIMATE, V13, P2217 REITER P, 2001, ENVIRON HEALTH PE S1, V109, P141 SHANKS GD, 2000, T ROY SOC TROP MED H, V94, P253 STERN DI, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V47, P411 NR 27 TC 49 J9 NATURE BP 905 EP 909 PY 2002 PD FEB 21 VL 415 IS 6874 GA 523EL UT ISI:000173941000044 ER PT J AU Harlan, SL Brazel, AJ Prashad, L Stefanov, WL Larsen, L TI Neighborhood microclimates and vulnerability to heat stress SO SOCIAL SCIENCE & MEDICINE LA English DT Article C1 Arizona State Univ, Tempe, AZ 85287 USA. NASA, Lyndon B Johnson Space Ctr, Image Sci & Anal Lab, Houston, TX 77058 USA. Univ Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109 USA. RP Harlan, SL, Arizona State Univ, Tempe, AZ 85287 USA. AB Human exposure to excessively warm weather, especially in cities, is an increasingly important public health problem. This study examined heat-related health inequalities within one city in order to understand the relationships between the microclimates of urban neighborhoods, population characteristics, thermal environments that regulate microclimates, and the resources people possess to cope with climatic conditions. A simulation model was used to estimate an outdoor human thermal comfort index (HTCI) as a function of local climate variables collected in 8 diverse city neighborhoods during the summer of 2003 in Phoenix, USA. HTCI is an indicator of heat stress, a condition that can cause illness and death. There were statistically significant differences in temperatures and HTCI between the neighborhoods during the entire summer, which increased during a heat wave period. Lower socioeconomic and ethnic minority groups were more likely to live in warmer neighborhoods with greater exposure to heat stress. High settlement density, sparse vegetation, and having no open space in the neighborhood were significantly correlated with higher temperatures and HTCI. People in warmer neighborhoods were more vulnerable to heat exposure because they had fewer social and material resources to cope with extreme heat. Urban heat island reduction policies should specifically target vulnerable residential areas and take into account equitable distribution and preservation of environmental resources. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *AM FOR, 2005, TREES ECOSY SERV *CBCF, 2004, AFR AM CLIM CLIM CHA *CDC, 2004, EXYR HEAT *CDC, 2005, MMWR-MORBID MORTAL W, V54, P628 *CIT PHOEN PLANN D, 2004, ENV PLANN EL *ICLEI, 1998, CIT RISK ASS VULN US *IFRC, 2003, IND HEAT WAV INF B *NOAA, 2003, PREL CLIM DAT *NOAA, 2005, HEAT WAV MAJ SUMM KI *NY CLIM HLTH PROJ, 2004, ASS POT PUBL HLTH AI BASU R, 2002, ENVIRON HEALTH PERSP, V110, P1219 BOLIN B, 2002, ENVIRON PLANN A, V34, P317 BRAZEL A, 2000, CLIM RES, V25, P49 BROWN P, 2003, SOC SCI MED, V57, P453 BROWN RD, 1995, MICROCLIMATIC LANDSC CARLSON TN, 2000, GLOBAL PLANET CHANGE, V25, P49 CORBURN J, 2006, HEALTH PLACE, V12, P167 CUMMINS S, 2005, HEALTH PLACE, V11, P249 CURRIERO FC, 2002, AM J EPIDEMIOL, V155, P80 CUTTER SL, 2003, SOC SCI QUART, V84, P242 DAVIS M, 1997, CAPITALISM NATURE SO, V8, P35 DAVIS RE, 2003, ENVIRON HEALTH PERSP, V111, P1712 EASTERLING DR, 2000, SCIENCE, V289, P2068 GOLDEN JS, 2004, ENV SCI, V1, P321 GRINESKI SE, 2006, THESIS ARIZONA STATE GROSSMANCLARKE S, 2005, J APPL METEOROL, V44, P1281 HARTZ DA, 2006, INT J BIOMETEOROL, V51, P73 HEISLER GM, 2002, 4 S URB ENV 20 24 MA, P70 HOPE D, 2003, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V100, P8788 HUETE AR, 1988, REMOTE SENS ENVIRON, V25, P295 JENERETTE GD, IN PRESS LANDSCAPE E KALKSTEIN LS, 1989, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V79, P44 KALKSTEIN LS, 1997, ENVIRON HEALTH PERSP, V105, P84 KALKSTEIN LS, 2004, UNPUB DEV EVAPORATIV KARL TR, 1988, J CLIMATE, V1, P1099 KILBOURNE EM, 2002, AM J PREV MED, V22, P328 KLINENBERG E, 2002, HEAT WAVE SOCIAL AUT KNOWLESYANEZ K, 1999, HISTORIC LAND USE PH, V1 LARSEN J, 2003, RECORD HEAT WAVE EUR LARSEN L, 2004, J PLAN EDUC RES, V24, P64 MACINTYRE S, 2002, SOC SCI MED, V55, P125 MCGEEHIN MA, 2001, ENVIRON HEALTH PE S2, V109, P185 MEEHL GA, 2004, SCIENCE, V305, P994 OKE TR, 1987, BOUNDARY LAYER CLIMA OKE TR, 1997, APPL CLIMATOLOGY, P273 ONEILL MS, 2003, AM J EPIDEMIOL, V157, P1074 PARKER DS, 1998, 1998 ASHRAE ANN M TO PATZ JA, 2005, NATURE, V438, P310 PELLOW DN, 2000, AM BEHAV SCI, V43, P581 PELLOW DN, 2002, GARBAGE WARS STRUGGL REAGAN JA, 1979, ENERG BUILDINGS, V2, P237 ROGOT E, 1992, AM J EPIDEMIOL, V136, P106 ROSENFELD AH, 1995, ENERG BUILDINGS, V22, P255 ROSENFELD AH, 1998, ENERG BUILDINGS, V28, P51 SAMPSON RJ, 1999, URBAN PROBLEMS COMM SEMENZA JC, 1996, NEW ENGL J MED, V335, P84 SEMENZA JC, 1999, AM J PREV MED, V16, P269 SHERIDAN SC, 2004, B AM METEOROL SOC, V85, P1931 SMOYER KE, 1998, SOC SCI MED, V47, P1809 SMOYER KE, 2000, INT J BIOMETEOROL, V44, P190 STEADMAN RG, 1984, J CLIM APPL METEOROL, V23, P1674 STEFANOV WL, 2004, INT ARCH PHOTOGRAMME, V35, P1339 TAHA H, 1997, ENERG BUILDINGS, V25, P99 TASHAKKORI A, 1998, MIXED METHODOLOGY CO VOOGT JA, 2002, ENCY GLOBAL ENV CHAN, V3, P60 WATTS JD, 2004, J APPL METEOROL, V43, P503 WISNER B, 2004, AT RISK NR 67 TC 0 J9 SOC SCI MED BP 2847 EP 2863 PY 2006 PD DEC VL 63 IS 11 GA 112HG UT ISI:000242515900009 ER PT J AU Kok, K TI The role of population in understanding Honduran land use patterns SO JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article C1 Lab Soil Sci & Geol, NL-6700 AA Wageningen, Netherlands. RP Kok, K, Lab Soil Sci & Geol, POB 37, NL-6700 AA Wageningen, Netherlands. AB Land use patterns are usually influenced by large variety of factors that act over a broad range of scales. Biophysical, climatic, and socioeconomic factors are important and need to be considered, when distribution of land use is to be understood. The main objective of this study is to test this hypothesis using a statistical analysis at 'supra-local' level. Regression analysis is used to describe land use patterns in Honduras, selected because of its rare combination in Latin America of high population growth and poor biophysical conditions. Furthermore, the aim of the analysis is to specifically highlight two aspects, the effect of spatial and temporal scale and the influence of population density: to determine the influence of spatial and temporal scale, six spatial resolutions at two points in time (1974 and 1993) were included. To determine the role of population density and population growth, this factor was singled out; an analysis of migration patterns was performed; and a measure for technological development was calculated. Multiple regression equations indicate the importance of soil-related, climatic and demographic factors for most of the land uses. Relations appear to be stable in space and time. Rural population density dominates as driver over the whole range of resolutions and for both years, especially for maize where it explains up to 80% of the variation. The strong constant relationship between population and agricultural area could be caused by a lack of technological development. An analysis of yield development confirms that for most annual crops yield increases lag behind area growth. Besides, the strong correlation could be explained by assuming rural population density to be a proxy for a range of other factors, like labour costs, or accessibility that are the direct drivers of land use change. In any case, this study suggests that for a specific-relatively coarse-window of temporal and spatial scale, land use patterns can be described with very simple relationships, with a strong contribution of population density. More local studies are needed to test the hypothesis that rural population density is a proxy for other variables. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 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Meteo France, Ctr Natl Rech Meteorol, F-94736 Nogent Sur Marne, France. RP Hallegatte, S, Ctr Int Rech Environm & Dev, 45bis Av de la Belle Gabrielle, F-94736 Nogent Sur Marne, France. AB This paper is based on the perception that the inertia of climate and socio-economic systems are key parameters in the climate change issue. In a first part, it develops and implements a new approach based on a simple integrated model with a particular focus on an innovative transient impact and adaptation modeling. In a second part, a climate-economy feedback is defined and characterized. The following results were found. 1) It has a long characteristic time, which lies between 50 and 100 years depending on the hypotheses; this time scale is long when compared to the system's other time scales, and the feedback cannot act as a natural damping process of climate change. 2) Mitigation has to be anticipated since the feedback of an emission reduction on the economy can be significant only after a 20-year delay and is really efficient only after at least 50 years. 3) Even discounted, production changes due to an action on emissions are significant over more than one century. 4) The methodology of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which neglects the feedback from impacts to emissions, is acceptable up to 2100, whatever is the level of impacts. This analysis allows also to define a climatic cost of growth as the additional climate change damages due to the additional emissions linked to economic growth. CR AMBROSI P, 2003, ENVIRON MODEL ASSESS, V8, P133 BODE H, 1945, NETWORK ANAL FEEDBAC CHERKAOUI M, 1996, J HEAT TRANS-T ASME, V118, P401 CLINE W, 1992, EC GLOBAL WARMING COX PM, 2000, NATURE, V408, P184 FANKHAUSER S, 1999, ECOL ECON, V30, P67 FANKHAUSER S, 2005, RESOUR ENERGY ECON, V27, P1 FRIEDLINGSTEIN P, 2003, TELLUS B, V55, P692 GALLUP J, 1999, 1 CID HARV GREEN JSA, 1967, Q J ROY METEOR SOC, V93, P371 HALLEGATTE S, 2005, UNPUB J ATMOS SCI HAURIE A, 2002, TURNPIKE MULTIDISCOU, P4 HOUGHTON JT, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 LIU JWH, 1992, SIAM REV, V34, P82 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 MENDELSOHN R, 1999, IMPACT CLIMATE CHANG NAKICENOVIC N, 2000, SPECIAL REPORT EMISS NORDHAUS W, 1994, MANAGING GLOBAL COMM NORDHAUS WD, 1991, ECON J, V101, P920 SOLOW RM, 1956, Q J ECON, V70, P65 TOL RSJ, 1996, ECOL ECON, V19, P67 TOL RSJ, 2002, ENVIRON RESOUR ECON, V21, P135 TOL RSJ, 2002, ENVIRON RESOUR ECON, V21, P47 NR 23 TC 0 J9 ENVIRON MODEL ASSESS BP 277 EP 289 PY 2005 PD DEC VL 10 IS 4 GA 988XH UT ISI:000233634400001 ER PT J AU Zacharias, MA Gregr, EJ TI Sensitivity and vulnerability in marine environments: an approach to identifying vulnerable marine areas SO CONSERVATION BIOLOGY LA English DT Article C1 Calif State Univ Channel Isl, Environm Sci & Resource Management Program, Camarillo, CA 93012 USA. SciTech Consulting, Vancouver, BC V5N 1G8, Canada. RP Zacharias, MA, Calif State Univ Channel Isl, Environm Sci & Resource Management Program, 1 Univ Dr, Camarillo, CA 93012 USA. AB Marine environments have suffered from a lack of quantitative methods for delineating areas that are sensitive or vulnerable to particular stresses, natural and anthropogenic. We define sensitivity as the degree to which marine features respond to stresses, which are deviations of environmental conditions beyond the expected range. Vulnerability can then be defined as the probability that a feature will be exposed to a stress to which it is sensitive. Using these definitions, we provide a quantitative methodology for identifying vulnerable marine areas based on valued ecological features, defined as biological or physical features, processes, or structures deemed by humans to have environmental, social, cultural, or economic significance. The vulnerability of the valued ecological features is a function of their sensitivity to particular stresses and their vulnerability to those stresses. We used the methodology to demonstrate how vulnerable marine areas for two groups of endangered whale species (inshore and offshore) could be identified with a predictive habitat model and acoustic stress surfaces. Acoustic stress surfaces were produced for ferry traffic, commercial shipping traffic, potential offshore oil production, and small-boat traffic. The vulnerabilities of the two whale groups to the four stressors considered in this example were relatively similar; however, inshore species were more sensitive to on-shelf, coastal activities such as offshore hydrocarbon production, ferry traffic, and small-boat traffic. Our approach demonstrates how valued features can be associated with stresses and the likelihood of encountering these stresses (vulnerability) in order to identify geographic areas for management and conservation purposes. The method can be applied to any combination of valued ecological features and stressors. CR *ENV AUSTR, 2001, GUID APPL ENV PROT B *IPIECA, 1996, SENS MAPP OIL SPILL *LGL CONS, 1998, ENV ASS SEISM EXPL S *LGL CONS, 2000, ENV ASS EXPL DRILL N *NAT RES COUNC, 2003, OC NOIS MAR MAMM *NOAA, 1996, 115 NOAA NOS ORCA ALLEE RJ, 2000, NMFSFSPO43 NAT OC AT COWARDIN LM, 1979, FWSOBS7931 US FISH W DALE NG, 1997, OVERVIEW KEY CONSERV DIAS PC, 1996, TRENDS ECOL EVOL, V11, P326 DUTRIEUX E, 2000, GUIDE METHODOLOGIQUE EMMETT B, 2001, FRAMEWORK IDENTIFYIN GJERDE KM, 2002, SEA TECHNOL, V43, P40 GOLLEY FB, 1993, HIST ECOSYSTEM CONCE GORDON J, 1996, CONSERVATION WHALES, P281 GORDON J, 1998, P SEISM MAR MAMM WOR GREGR EJ, 2001, CAN J FISH AQUAT SCI, V58, P1265 GUNDLACH ER, 1978, MAR TECHNOL SOC J, V12, P18 HOLLING CS, 1986, SUSTAINABLE DEV BIOS, V1, P1 HOLT TJ, 1995, 65 MAES Y FFYNN HOWES DE, 1994, BRIT COLUMBIA PHYS S JOHNSON D, 2001, WADDEN SEA NEWSLETTE, V3, P9 LUSSEAU D, 2003, CONSERV BIOL, V17, P1785 MCCAULEY RD, 1998, AUSTR PETROLEUM PROD, V38, P692 MCDONALD MA, 1995, J ACOUST SOC AM, V98, P712 MICHEL J, 1978, ENVIRON GEOL, V2, P107 MOORE SE, 2002, J CETACEAN RESOURCE, V4, P19 NICHOL LM, 2002, 2371 FISH AQ SCI RICHARDSON WJ, 1995, MARINE MAMMALS NOISE ROFF JC, 2000, AQUAT CONSERV, V10, P209 SCHICK RS, 2000, CAN J FISH AQUAT SCI, V57, P2193 SHERMAN K, 1991, ECOL APPL, V1, P349 TYLERWALTERS H, 1999, 4 MARLIN MAR BIOL AS URICK RJ, 1983, PRINCIPLES UNDERWATE VANBERNEM KH, 2000, WAT STUD SER, V8, P229 WENZ GM, 1962, J ACOUST SO, V34, P1936 WILLIAMS R, 2002, J CETACEAN RES MANAG, V4, P305 ZACHARIAS MA, 1998, COAST MANAGE, V26, P105 ZACHARIAS MA, 1998, NAT AREA J, V18, P4 NR 39 TC 1 J9 CONSERV BIOL BP 86 EP 97 PY 2005 PD FEB VL 19 IS 1 GA 889JF UT ISI:000226438600015 ER PT J AU Dibben, C Chester, DK TI Human vulnerability in volcanic environments: the case of Furnas, Sao Miguel, Azores SO JOURNAL OF VOLCANOLOGY AND GEOTHERMAL RESEARCH LA English DT Article C1 Univ Luton, Ctr Volcan Studies, Luton LU1 3JU, Beds, England. Univ Liverpool, Dept Geog, Liverpool L69 3BX, Merseyside, England. RP Dibben, C, Univ Oxford, Dept Appl Social Studies & Social Res, Barnett House,Wellington Sq, Oxford OX1 2ER, England. AB The need to examine the vulnerability of people to natural hazards, in addition to the long-established requirement to study extreme events of nature, is being increasingly recognised within disaster research. Following a discussion of the nature of human vulnerability, we propose a framework for its analysis within the context of volcanic activity and we exemplify our approach by a detailed study of Furnas, a village located at the centre of a volcano with the same name on the island of Sao Miguel in the Azores. The methods used included in-depth interviews with permanent residents (n = 50), analysis of census records and an examination of the socio-economic history of the town. The vulnerability of an individual to volcanic hazards involves a complex interaction of elements which, in addition to the usual factors taken into account in programmes of hazard reduction (e.g., the nature of the physical threat, location and economic situation), also comprises his or her social context and a number of physiological and psychological considerations. It is argued, further, that both generally and in the case of Furnas, the root causes of vulnerability lie in the history and development of society. Individual decision making is fundamental but takes place within and cannot be separated from this social context. Vulnerability analysis allows the identification of points where intervention may be successful in reducing the likelihood of suffering in a society. It avoids the problem of people's unexpected reactions to invention leading to a changing or even increasing level of vulnerability, by studying society rather than just one aspect of volcanic hazard in isolation. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. CR 1993, HIST FURNAS RONCOS V, V9, P4 *BULL BULL, 1841, WINT AZ SUMM BATH FU *I AC CULT, 1983, PROBL REC SISM JAN 1 *SREA, 1988, AN EST 1986 7 AC *SREA, 1991, INQ AOES ORC FAM IOF *SREA, 1993, 13 REC POP 3 REC GER *UNDRO, 1991, MIT NAT DIS PHEN EFF ALMEIDA N, 1990, FURNAS PRESENTS FURN ANDERSON M, 1989, RISING ASHES DEV STR BARAKAT S, 1995, J REFUGEE STUDIES, V8, P418 BAUBRON JC, 1994, BRGM BAXTER PJ, 1994, CASE STUDIES HLTH AS BAXTER PJ, 1994, INT WORKSH EUR VOLC BAXTER PJ, 1999, J VOLCANOL GEOTH RES, V92, P95 BENTO CM, 1994, HIST AZORES BLAIKIE PM, 1987, LAND DEGRADATION SOC BLAIKIE PM, 1994, RISK NATURAL HAZARDS, V1, P1 BLAIR J, 1964, HOME TRISTAN CUNHA, V125, P60 BOORSE C, 1975, PHILOS PUBLIC AFFAIR, V5 BOOTH B, 1978, PHILOS T ROY SOC A, V288, P271 BROWN BB, 1992, PLACE ATTACHMENT, P279 CANNON T, 1994, DISASTERS DEV ENV, P13 CHAMBERS R, 1983, RURAL DEV PUTTING LA CHAPIN FW, 1989, TIDES MIGRATION STUD CHESTER DK, 1995, REPORT EVACUATION FU COCHRANE T, 1987, W FOLKLORE, V46, P1 COLE PD, 1995, J VOLCANOL GEOTH RES, V69, P117 COLE PD, 1999, J VOLCANOL GEOTH RES, V92, P39 CRUZ JV, 1999, J VOLCANOL GEOTH RES, V92, P151 DAVIS I, 1978, SHELTER DISASTER DAVIS I, 1995, WORKSH LOND 31 MAR C DIAS UM, 1936, HIST VALE FURNAS DIBBEN C, 1997, EXTR NAT HAZ WORKSH DONALD I, 1990, FIRES HUMAN BEHAV, P15 DOYAL L, 1991, THEORY HUMAN NEED DRABEK TE, 1969, SOC PROBL, V16, P336 DRABEK TE, 1986, HUMAN SYSTEMS RESPON ELLIS SJ, 1996, THESIS U LUTON FERREIRA T, 1995, 4 C NAC GEOL PORT PO FESTINGER L, 1957, THEORY COGNITIVE DIS FRIED M, 1963, URBAN CONDITION, P151 GASPAR JL, 1995, RISCOS SAUDE PUBLICA GUEST JE, 1999, J VOLCANOL GEOTH RES, V92, P1 HARRELLBOND, 1986, IMPOSING AID EMERGEN HEWITT K, 1997, REGIONS RISK GEOGRAP, V1, P1 LOW, 1992, PLACE ATTACHMENT, P1 MARTINS LM, 1990, THESIS U AZORES PORT MASKREY A, 1989, DISASTER MITIGATION MILETI DS, 1975, HUMAN SYSTEMS EXTREM MOORE RB, 1990, B VOLCANOL, V52, P602 MOORE RB, 1991, GEOLOGIC MAP SAO MIG MOORE RB, 1991, US GEOL SURV B NOLAN ML, 1979, VOLCANIC ACTIVITY HU, P293 OKEEFE P, 1976, NATURE, V260, P566 OSKARSSON N, 1999, J VOLCANOL GEOTH RES, V92, P181 PACHECO JM, 1995, CARACTERIZACAO DEPOS PACHECO JM, 1996, 2 WORKSH EUR LAB VOL PERRY RW, 1980, DISASTERS, V4, P433 PERRY, 1985, COMPREHENSIVE EMERGE POMONIS P, 1999, J VOLCANOL GEOTHERM, V92, P107 QUARANTELLI EL, 1980, EVACUATION BEHAV PRO RAPHAEL B, 1986, DISASTER STRIKES HDB RIVLIN LG, 1987, NEIGHBORHOOD COMMUNI, P441 SAYERS D, 1994, GUIDA JARDIM SEN AK, 1992, INEQUALITY REXAMINED SIME JD, 1983, J ENVIRON PSYCHOL, V3, P21 SIME JD, 1990, FIRES HUMAN BEHAV, P63 SUSMAN P, 1983, INTERPRETATIONS CALA, P263 TOWNSEND P, 1987, J SOC POLICY, V16, P125 WALLENSTEIN N, 1998, ERUPCAO 1563 PICO SA WENGER DE, 1975, MASS EMERGENCIES, V1, P33 WICKER AW, 1969, J SOC ISSUES, V25, P41 WILLIAMS JR, 1982, YET THEY COME PORTUG ZBYSZEWSKI, 1961, COM SERV GEOL PORTUG, V45, P5 NR 74 TC 4 J9 J VOLCANOL GEOTHERM RES BP 133 EP 150 PY 1999 PD SEP VL 92 IS 1-2 GA 256HM UT ISI:000083719900010 ER PT J AU Parry, ML TI Scenarios for climate impact and adaptation assessment SO GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS LA English DT Editorial Material C1 Univ E Anglia, Sch Environm Sci, Jackson Environm Inst, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. RP Parry, ML, Univ E Anglia, Sch Environm Sci, Jackson Environm Inst, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. CR CARTER TR, 2000, CLIMATE CHANGE 21 CE HOUGHTON JT, 1996, SCI CLIMATE CHANGE HOUGHTON JT, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 METZ B, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 NAKICENOVIC N, 2000, SPECIAL REPORT EMISS SWART RJ, 2002, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V12, P155 WATSON RT, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 NR 8 TC 3 J9 GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANGE BP 149 EP 153 PY 2002 PD OCT VL 12 IS 3 GA 612KX UT ISI:000179075400001 ER PT J AU Usher, P TI Integrating impacts into adaptation measures SO ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING AND ASSESSMENT LA English DT Article C1 UNEP, Atmosphere Unit, Nairobi, Kenya. RP Usher, P, UNEP, Atmosphere Unit, POB 47074, Nairobi, Kenya. AB A mechanism has been established to improve integration of international climate-related programmes. Known as the Climate Agenda it outlines a programme, that in a cost-effective way, responds to national obligations to respond to international agreements as well as their national needs for social and economic development. The paper briefly describes the Climate Agenda and the incorporation within it of studies of climate impact assessments and response strategies to reduce vulnerability The need for increased emphasis on climate impact assessment and for the development of effective adaptation measures is emphasised following the elaboration of a Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). UNEP's efforts to identify national programmes contributing to the Climate Agenda are described. The response from developing countries has, however, been very disappointing, even from countries where we know work is ongoing through funding by GEF or US Country Studies Program and other bilateral programmes. Initial compilation of information available so far shows that many developed countries are putting a lot into the area of impact assessment of not just climate change, but also climate variability. There remain some research gaps, especially in the area of assessment of climate impacts on ecosystems, hydrological systems, etc. Considerable efforts are presently being directed at reduction of emissions of greenhouse gases and in the case of developing countries, most efforts are being directed towards completing national communications and providing baseline data for future studies. The paper refers to early activities by UNEP in cooperation with other international organizations to undertake integrated assessments of the impacts of climate change on important socio-economic sectors and the later incorporation of lessons teamed into the IPCC Guidelines for Assessing Impacts of Climate Change. Later sections outline the development of a handbook on methods for climate change impact assessment and adaptation strategies as a practical approach to national assessments and the development of appropriate and cost-effective response to climate change. The initiation of a GEF-funded project to apply the methods contained in the handbook and improve the results based on national studies is also described for both developed and developing countries. Working in collaboration with a team of international experts under the coordination of the Institute of Environmental Studies at Vrije University (Amsterdam), the goal of this ongoing project is to develop a valuable methodological tool that Parties to the UNFCCC may apply to develop national climate change impact and adaptation assessments. Development of these guidelines was linked to a series of country studies in Antigua and Barbuda, Estonia, Cameroon and Pakistan funded under a UNEP/GEF project. The application of the first version of the UNEP Handbook by national study teams in these four countries is making valuable technical and practical contributions and will ensure that the next version of the Handbook will be a more useful tool for experts in developing countries undertaking similar studies in the future. The methods contained in the Handbook are also the basis for similar assessments funded under bilateral development programmes in other countries. These and similar studies elsewhere are coordinated with the UNEP programme and will eventually aim to create reliable and comparable assessments, a compatible set of tools for such purpose and the identification of realistic adaptation options for incorporation into national planning for adapting to climate change. The paper also addresses how climate impact assessment and response strategies are undertaken as part of national enabling activities carried out in co-operation with UNEP. NR 0 TC 1 J9 ENVIRON MONIT ASSESS BP 37 EP 48 PY 2000 PD MAR VL 61 IS 1 GA 300UB UT ISI:000086270100003 ER PT J AU Courtois, P TI The status of integrated assessment in climatic policy making - An overview of inconsistencies underlying response functions SO ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE & POLICY LA English DT Article C1 Univ Autonoma Barcelona, CODE, Dept Econ & Hist Econ, Bellaterra 08193, Spain. RP Courtois, P, Univ Autonoma Barcelona, CODE, Dept Econ & Hist Econ, Edifici B, Bellaterra 08193, Spain. AB What climatic lessons can be derived from cost and benefit integrated assessment models? This paper presents state of the art methods to assess climate change impacts and build corresponding response functions. These last constitute one of the keystone of cost and benefit integrated assessment approaches to climate change. It focuses on the many shortcomings and inconsistencies underlying these functions and highlights how they can act as an invisible hand driving modelling results. The paper deduces lessons over the status of cost and benefit integrated assessment models to guide decision makers on climatic policy design, and closes on some relevant methodological insights over the treatment of these issues. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *NAT AC, 2002, COMM AB CLIM CHANG O BRUCE JP, 1996, EC SOCIAL DIMENSIONS CARTER TR, 1994, IPCC TECHNICAL GUIDE FANKHAUSER S, 1994, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V4, P301 HOURCADE JC, 1995, ENERG POLICY, V23, P433 JAEGER CC, 1998, HUMAN COICE CLIMATE, V3 KATZ RW, 2001, UNPUB TECHNIQUES EST MAHLMAN JD, 1997, SCIENCE, V278, P1416 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 MENDELSOHN R, 1999, EC IMPACT CLIMATE CH MENDELSOHN R, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P533 MENDELSOHN R, 2000, COMMUNICATION MYLES RA, 2000, NATURE, V407, P617 NORDHAUS WD, 1999, NEW ESTIMATES EC IMP NORDHAUS WD, 2000, WARMING WORLD EC MOD PARRY ML, 1996, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V6, P1 PECK S, 1993, ASSESSING SURPRISES REILLY JM, 1994, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V4, P24 ROSENZWEIG C, 1994, NATURE, V367, P133 ROTMANS J, 1998, HUMAN CHOICE CLIMATE, V3 TOL RSJ, 1994, ENERG POLICY, V22, P436 TOL RSJ, 2002, ENVIRON RESOUR ECON, V21, P135 TOL RSJ, 2002, ENVIRON RESOUR ECON, V21, P47 NR 23 TC 0 J9 ENVIRON SCI POLICY BP 69 EP 75 PY 2004 VL 7 IS 1 GA 769CG UT ISI:000188608400007 ER PT J AU BRUCE, JP TI NATURAL DISASTER REDUCTION AND GLOBAL CHANGE SO BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY LA English DT Article AB This article is the third in a series of three articles based on a presentation to the Symposium on the International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction held 24 January 1994 in Nashville, Tennessee. The symposium was held in conjunction with the 74th AMS Annual Meeting. CR 1986, CONTROL WATER POLLUT 1991, DISASTER HIST 1900 P BERZ G, 1993, REVIEW JUN, P32 BURTON I, 1978, ENV HAZARD, V1, P1 HOUGHTON J, 1994, GLOBAL WARMING COMPL KREIMER A, 1992, 168 WORLD BANK DISC MEEHL GA, 1993, WORKSHOP SOCIOECONOM PITTOCK AB, 1991, P INT HYDROLOGY WATE, P182 PLATE EJ, 1992, PLANNING WATER RESOU RIND D, 1993, CLIMATE ALERT NEWSLE, V6, P2 ROWNTREE P, 1993, WORKSHOP SOCIOECONOM, P3 RUSSELL N, 1993, DISASTER MITIGATION, P150 SWAIL V, 1993, CLIMATE PERSPECTIVES, V15, P17 TAKEDO T, 1993, AICHI NAGOYA INT C J, P397 TOL RSJ, 1993, WORKSHOP SOCIOECONOM TUCKER B, 1993, AICHI NAGOYA INT C J, P23 XUE YK, 1993, J CLIMATE, V6, P2232 NR 17 TC 5 J9 BULL AMER METEOROL SOC BP 1831 EP 1835 PY 1994 PD OCT VL 75 IS 10 GA PN886 UT ISI:A1994PN88600006 ER PT J AU Pelling, M TI What determines vulnerability to floods: A case study in Georgetown, Guyana SO ENVIRONMENT AND URBANIZATION LA English DT Article C1 UNIV GUYANA,DEPT GEOG,GEORGETOWN,GUYANA. AB This paper describes how a high proportion of Greater Georgetown's inhabitants are subjected to regular floods and examines also the vulnerability of households to flooding and flood impacts in four of the city's 49 wards, It demonstrates the importance of incorporating social and economic assets together with physical resources as key ''dynamic pressures''((1)) in assessments of household and neighbourhood vulnerability to environmental stress. It also identities households and communities as active agents in the management of vulnerability and examines the potential of such organizations for reducing vulnerability based upon economic poverty. CR 1996, STABROEK NEWS 0101 *BUR STAT, 1993, POP HOUS CENS 1991 *CENTR HOUS PLANN, 1993, GOV GUYANA HOUS POL *CTR HOUS PLANN AG, 1996, HOUS URB DEV GUY CHP *IDB, 1994, BUILD CONS SOC EC RE *MIN HLTH, 1995, DRAFT NAT HLTH PLAN *PAHO WHO, 1993, HLTH AM GUYANA PAHO *WORLD BANK, 1992, GUY EC REC SUST GROW *WORLD BANK, 1993, PUBL SECT REV BLAIKIE PM, 1994, RISK NATURAL HAZARDS, V1, P1 BOMBAROLO F, 1994, FUNDING COMMUNITY IN CAIRNCROSS S, 1990, POOR DIE YOUNG CHAMBERS R, 1989, IDS B, V20, P1 COMACHO RF, 1993, IMPLICATIONS CLIMATE FERGUSON T, 1995, STRUCTURAL ADJUSTMEN HALCROW W, 1994, PRIMARY DRAINAGE SYS HALCROW W, 1994, TNGMP09 W HALCR PART JAGAN CB, 1993, TRANSITION, P20 KEMP S, 1993, STAT ANAL GEORGETOWN PELLING M, 1992, REV SELF HELP HOUSIN RODNEY D, 1993, TRANSITION 20 21 SIMON K, 1994, CLIM CHANG C GEORG G STEPHENS C, 1996, ENVIRON URBAN, V8, P9 SWEDEPLAN, 1995, SHOREZONE MANAGEMENT THOMAS CY, 1993, SOC ECON STUD, V42, P133 WRATTEN E, 1995, ENVIRON URBAN, V7, P11 NR 26 TC 3 J9 ENVIRON URBAN BP 203 EP 226 PY 1997 PD APR VL 9 IS 1 GA WX909 UT ISI:A1997WX90900012 ER PT J AU BACHELET, D BROWN, D BOHM, M RUSSELL, P TI CLIMATE CHANGE IN THAILAND AND ITS POTENTIAL IMPACT ON RICE YIELD SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 US EPA,ENVIRONM RES LAB,CORVALLIS,OR 97333. RP BACHELET, D, MANTECH ENVIRONM TECHNOL INC USA,200 SW 35TH ST,CORVALLIS,OR 97333. AB In Thailand, the world's largest rice exporter, rice constitutes a major export on which the economy of the whole country depends. Climate change could affect rice growth and development and thus jeopardize Thailand's wealth. Current climatic conditions in Thailand are compared to predictions from four general circulation models (GCMs). Temperature predictions correlate well with the observed values. Predictions of monthly rainfall correlate poorly. Virtually all models agree that significant increases in temperature (from 1 to 7-degrees-C) will occur in the region including Thailand following a doubling in atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration. The regional seasonality and extent of the rise in temperature varies with each model. Predictions of changes in rainfall vary widely between models. Global warming should in principle allow a northward expansion of rice-growing areas and a lengthening of the growing season now constrained by low temperatures. The expected increase in water-use efficiency due to enhanced CO2 might decrease the water deficit vulnerability of dryland rice areas and could make it possible to slightly expand them. CR 1976, CLIMATE RICE 1982, STUDY AGROCLIMATOLOG 1983, WORLD GRAIN EC CLIMA 1989, IMPLEMENTING STARTEG ACKERMAN TP, 1988, ENVIRONMENT, V30, P31 ADAMS RM, 1988, W J AGR EC, V13, P348 ALLEN LH, 1990, J ENVIRON QUAL, V19, P15 BAKER JT, 1990, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V50, P201 BAKER JT, 1990, AGRON J, V82, P834 BAZZAZ FA, 1989, OECOLOGIA, V79, P223 CESS RD, 1989, NATURE, V342, P736 DICKINSON RE, 1989, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V15, P5 GROTCH SL, 1988, NBB0084 US DEP EN PU GUTOWSKI WJ, 1988, DOEER60422H1 HANSEN J, 1984, CLIMATE PROCESSES CL, V5, P130 HATCH W, 1986, SELECTIVE GUIDE CLIM ISHII Y, 1978, MONOGRAPHS CTR SE AS JOYCE LA, 1990, RM187 USDA FOR SERV KARL TR, 1989, 13TH P ANN CLIM DIAG, P251 KARL TR, 1990, J CLIMATE, V3, P1053 OGAWA H, 1961, NATURE LIFE S E ASIA, V1, P20 OHMAN HL, 1965, ES19 US ARM MAT COMM PANTURAT S, 1990, CLIMATOL B, V24, P16 PARRY ML, 1988, IMPACT CLIMATIC VARI, V1, P11 SCHLESINGER ME, 1989, J CLIMATE, V2, P459 SCHNEIDER SH, 1989, CLIMATE CHANGE US WA SESHU DV, 1989, CLIMATE FOOD SECURIT, P93 SPANGLER WML, 1985, WORLD MONTHLY SURFAC STANSEL JW, 1980, P S AGROMETEOROLOGY, P201 SUWANWONG S, 1983, PADDY NITROGEN EC CO, P7 WETHERALD RT, 1986, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V8094, P5470 WIGLEY TML, 1990, J GEOPHYS RES-ATMOSP, V95, P1943 WILSON CA, 1987, J GEOPHYS RES, V92, P315 YOSHIDA S, 1976, ECOPHYSIOLOGY TROPIC, P57 YOSHINO MM, 1988, IMPACT CLIMATE VARIA, V1, P853 NR 35 TC 1 J9 CLIMATIC CHANGE BP 347 EP 366 PY 1992 PD AUG VL 21 IS 4 GA JF464 UT ISI:A1992JF46400002 ER PT J AU M'barek, R Behle, C Mulindabigwi, V Schopp, M Singer, U TI Sustainable resource management in Benin embedded in the process of decentralisation SO PHYSICS AND CHEMISTRY OF THE EARTH LA English DT Article C1 Univ Bonn, Inst Agr Policy Market Res & Econ Sociol, D-53115 Bonn, Germany. Univ Bonn, Dept Geog, D-53115 Bonn, Germany. Univ Bonn, Dept Hort, D-53121 Bonn, Germany. RP M'barek, R, Univ Bonn, Inst Agr Policy Market Res & Econ Sociol, Nussallee 21, D-53115 Bonn, Germany. AB This article gives an overview on an integrated socio-economic approach to meet the complexity of resource use in a representative catchment area in Benin, West Africa. Main objective of the studies is to analyse interdependencies between resource availability and socio-economic, respectively, demographic development, incorporated in the process of institutional reorganisation. The ongoing decentralisation in Benin encounters obstacles, as responsibility is shifted from a national to a local level without being embedded in a framework of constitutional security. In this article we focus on crucial problems and highlight significant though preliminary results with reference to the decentralisation process, regarding basically the resources water and land. Results of field surveys are presented together with a modelling tool to integrate these data in an agricultural sector model. Water will become scarcer due to growing population and changing water consumption patterns. Migration flows aggravate the competition over land and water. The detailed knowledge on these shortly outlined processes allows to identify sustainable strategies in order to mitigate the impending crises. Resource management approaches like CBNRM ("Community Based Natural Resource Management") form a conceptual basis, which must be accompanied by a long-term planning of state institutions to steer resource use and by the introduction of locally adapted land use systems (like Cashew-plantations in the catchment). The decision support system BenIMPACT supports the quantitative assessment of different development paths. The dominant basic needs strategies of all national and international development agencies operating in Benin have to recognise the process of the shortening of the basic natural resources water and land to ensure their sustainability in the future. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *CTR EC HYDR, US WAT POV IND MON P *FAO, 2002, AQ MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 *WORLD BANK, 2003, WORLD BANK COUNTR DA AKPAKI JA, 2002, ACKERBAUERN MOBILE T CHABAL P, 1999, AFRICA WORKS DISORDE FALKENMARK M, 1992, POPULATION WATER RES FALKENMARK M, 1999, WATER REFLECTION LAN FLORIN R, 2003, COMMUNICATION LEACH M, 1999, WORLD DEV, V27, P225 MWABU G, 2001, RURAL DEV EC GROWTH PEPELS W, 1995, KAUFERVERHALTEN MARK PRETTY J, 2001, CARBON EMISSIONS SEQ RUTHBERG H, 1976, Z AUSLANDISCHE LANDW, V15, P42 THAMM HP, 2002, IMPE TUS S COT 20 21 VANDENAKKER E, 2000, MAKROOKONOMISCHE BEW WALLACE JS, 2000, AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON, V82, P105 NR 17 TC 0 J9 PHYS CHEM EARTH BP 365 EP 371 PY 2005 VL 30 IS 6-7 GA 969QM UT ISI:000232249600006 ER PT J AU Jackson, LE Bird, SL Matheny, RW O'Neill, RV White, D Boesch, KC Koviach, JL TI A regional approach to projecting land-use change and resulting ecological vulnerability SO ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING AND ASSESSMENT LA English DT Article C1 US EPA, Natl Hlth & Environm Effects Res Lab, Res Triangle Pk, NC 27711 USA. US EPA, Natl Exposure Res Lab, Athens, GA 30605 USA. US EPA, Natl Exposure Res Lab, Res Triangle Pk, NC 27711 USA. TN & Associates, Oak Ridge, TN 37831 USA. US EPA, Natl Hlth & Environm Effects Res Lab, Corvallis, OR 97333 USA. Univ N Carolina, Dept City & Reg Planning, Chapel Hill, NC 27599 USA. RP Jackson, LE, US EPA, Natl Hlth & Environm Effects Res Lab, Res Triangle Pk, NC 27711 USA. AB This study explores ecological vulnerability to land-use change in the U.S. Mid-Atlantic Region by spatially extrapolating land and economic development, and overlaying these projections with maps of sensitive ecological resources. As individual extrapolations have a high degree of uncertainty, five methods with different theoretical bases are employed. Confidence in projections is increased for counties targeted by two or more projection methods. A county is considered at risk if it currently supports three or more sensitive resources, and is projected to experience significant growth by the year 2010 by two or more methods. Analysis designated 19 counties and two cities as at risk, highlighting within a large region the priority areas where state and regional efforts would contribute the most to integrating environmental considerations into the process of land development. The study also found that potentially severe ecological effects of future land-use change are not limited to the outskirts of major urban areas. Recreational demands on smaller communities with mountain and coastal resources are also significant, as are initiatives to promote economic development in rural areas of high ecological quality. This approach provides a comprehensive overview of potential regional development, leading to an objective prioritization of high-risk areas. The intent is to inform local planning and decision-making so that regional and cumulative ecological degradation are minimized. CR *AM LUNG ASS, 2000, STAT AIR 2000 *US EPA, 2000, EPA600R00098 OFF RES, P260 *USCB, 1996, PROJ HOUS TYP 1995 1 *USCB, 1996, PROJ HOUS TYP 1995 2 *USCB, 1996, PROJ HOUS TYP 1995 3 *USCB, 1998, US COUNT 1998 STAT S *WOODS POOL EC INC, 1998, COMPL EC DEM DAT SOU ABBITT RJF, 2000, BIOL CONSERV, V96, P169 BARTLETT JG, 2000, POPUL ENVIRON, V21, P429 CLARK G, 1998, MITIG ADAPT STRAT GL, V3, P59 CLARKE KC, 1997, ENVIRON PLANN B, V24, P247 CLARKE KC, 1998, INT J GEOGR INF SCI, V12, P699 CUTTER SL, 2000, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V90, P713 GARDNER RH, 1987, LANDSCAPE ECOL, V1, P19 GARDNER RH, 1991, QUANTITATIVE METHODS, P289 GARDNER RH, 1993, HUMANS COMPONENTS EC, P208 GRIFFIN DM, 1980, J WATER POLLUTION CO, V52, P780 HARDIE I, 2000, LAND ECON, V76, P659 HULSE D, 2000, LANDSCAPE J, V19, P1 JONES RC, 1987, WATER RESOURCES B, V23, P1047 KUO FE, 1998, AM J COMMUN PSYCHOL, V26, P823 MASTER L, 1996, GAP ANAL LANDSCAPE A, P171 OCONNELL TJ, 2000, ECOL APPL, V10, P1706 OVERTON WS, 1990, EPA600391053 OFF RES, P52 PARKS PJ, 2000, ENVIRON MONIT ASSESS, V63, P175 PAULSEN SG, 1998, J AM WATER RESOUR AS, V34, P995 SCHUELER TR, 1987, CONTROLLING URBAN RU SCHULTE F, 1994, T 2 INT HIGH TEMP EL, V1, P3 SEABER PR, 1987, 2294 US GEOL SURV, P63 SHIGLEY P, 2000, CALIF J, V31, P30 SMITH ER, 2003, US EPAS REGIONAL VUL STANFIELD B, 2000, DANGER AIR UNHEALTHY TODD DA, 1989, J ENVIRON ENG-ASCE, V115, P633 VESTERBY M, 1991, LAND ECON, V67, P279 VOGELMANN JE, 2001, PHOTOGRAMM ENG REM S, V67, P650 VOINOV AA, 1999, ENVIRON MODELL SOFTW, V14, P473 WHITE D, 1999, LANDSCAPE ECOLOGICAL, P127 WICKHAM JD, 2000, J AM WATER RESOUR AS, V36, P1417 WICKHAM JD, 2000, LANDSCAPE ECOL, V15, P171 NR 39 TC 3 J9 ENVIRON MONIT ASSESS BP 231 EP 248 PY 2004 PD JUN VL 94 IS 1-3 GA 775UE UT ISI:000189078400017 ER PT J AU Jones, GV White, MA Cooper, OR Storchmann, K TI Climate change and global wine quality SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 So Oregon Univ, Dept Geog, Ashland, OR 97520 USA. Utah State Univ, Dept Aquat Watershed & Earth Resources, Logan, UT 84322 USA. Univ Colorado, CIRES, NOAA, Aeron Lab, Boulder, CO 80305 USA. Yale Univ, Dept Econ, New Haven, CT 06520 USA. RP Jones, GV, So Oregon Univ, Dept Geog, 1250 Siskiyou Blvd, Ashland, OR 97520 USA. AB From 1950 to 1999 the majority of the world's highest quality wine-producing regions experienced growing season warming trends. Vintage quality ratings during this same time period increased significantly while year-to-year variation declined. While improved winemaking knowledge and husbandry practices contributed to the better vintages it was shown that climate had, and will likely always have, a significant role in quality variations. This study revealed that the impacts of climate change are not likely to be uniform across all varieties and regions. Currently, many European regions appear to be at or near their optimum growing season temperatures, while the relationships are less defined in the New World viticulture regions. For future climates, model output for global wine producing regions predicts an average warming of 2 degrees C in the next 50 yr. For regions producing high quality grapes at the margins of their climatic limits, these results suggest that future climate change will exceed a climatic threshold such that the ripening of balanced fruit required for existing varieties and wine styles will become progressively more difficult. In other regions, historical and predicted climate changes could push some regions into more optimal climatic regimes for the production of current varietals. In addition, the warmer conditions could lead to more poleward locations potentially becoming more conducive to grape growing and wine production. CR AMERINE MA, 1944, HILGARDIA, V15, P493 ASHENFELTER O, 1995, CHANCE, V8, P7 ASHENFELTER O, 1995, ECON REC, V7, P40 ASHENFELTER O, 2000, VDQS ANN M AJ CORS F BINDI M, 1996, CLIMATE RES, V7, P213 BINDI M, 2000, CLIMATE CHANGE CLIMA, P117 BINDI M, 2001, EUR J AGRON, V14, P145 BROADBENT M, 1980, GREAT VINTAGE WINE B BUTTERFIELD RE, 2000, CLIMATE CHANGE CLIMA CARTER TR, 1991, INT J CLIMATOL, V11, P251 CHAHINE MT, 1992, NATURE, V359, P373 DEBLIJ HJ, 1983, J GEOGR, V82, P112 EASTERLING DR, 2000, B AM METEOROL SOC, V81, P417 FISCHER G, 2002, CLIMATE CHANGE AGR V FOREST CE, 2002, SCIENCE, V295, P113 GLADSTONES J, 1992, VITICULTURE ENV GORDON C, 2000, CLIM DYNAM, V16, P147 HOUGHTON TJ, 2001, CONTRIBUTIONS WORKIN JOHNSON H, 1985, WORLD ATLAS WINE JONES GV, 1997, SYNOPIC CLIMATOLOGIC JONES GV, 2000, AM J ENOL VITICULT, V51, P249 JONES GV, 2001, AGR ECON, V26, P115 JONES GV, 2003, OREGON VITICULTURE, P44 JONES GV, 2004, P VIN DAT QUANT SOC JONES GV, 2005, IN PRESS P 7 INT S G JONES GV, 2005, IN PRESS TERROIR SER KARL TR, 1993, B AM METEOROL SOC, V74, P1007 KENNY GJ, 1992, J WINE RES, V3, P163 LADURIE EL, 1971, TIMES FEAST TIMES FA LEGATES DR, 1990, THEOR APPL CLIMATOL, V41, P11 LOUGH JM, 1983, J CLIM APPL METEOROL, V22, P1673 MAZUR M, 2002, WINE ENTHUSIASTS 200 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 MCINNES KL, 2003, AUST NZ GRAPEGRO FEB, P40 MENZEL A, 1999, NATURE, V397, P659 MOISSELIN JM, 2002, METEOROLOGIE, V38, P45 MOONEN AC, 2002, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V111, P13 MULLINS MG, 1992, BIOL GRAPEVINE NEMANI RR, 2001, CLIMATE RES, V19, P25 PALUTIKOF JP, 2002, J CLIMATE, V15, P3529 PARKER RM, 1985, BORDEAUX DEFINITIVE PENNINGROWSELL EC, 1989, WINES BRODEAUX PFISTER C, 1988, LONG SHORT TERM VARI, P57 POPE VD, 2000, CLIM DYNAM, V16, P123 RAVAL A, 1989, NATURE, V342, P758 RENNER B, 1989, WINE SPIRIT DEC, P55 SCHULTZ HR, 2000, AUST J GRAPE WINE R, V6, P2 STEVENSON T, 2001, NEW SOTHEBYS WINE EN TATE AB, 2001, J WINE RES, V12, P95 UNWIN T, 1991, WINE VINE HIST GEOGR WILLMOTT C, 2002, MONTHLY ANN TIME SER WINKLER JA, 2002, J GREAT LAKES RES, V28, P608 NR 52 TC 3 J9 CLIMATIC CHANGE BP 319 EP 343 PY 2005 PD DEC VL 73 IS 3 GA 000SF UT ISI:000234482000005 ER PT J AU Weinstein, MP Reed, DJ TI Sustainable coastal development: The dual mandate and a recommendation for "commerce managed areas" SO RESTORATION ECOLOGY LA English DT Article C1 New Jersey Marine Sci Consortium, Sandy Hook Field Stn, Ft Hancock, NJ 07732 USA. Univ New Orleans, Dept Geol & Geophys, New Orleans, LA 70148 USA. RP Weinstein, MP, New Jersey Marine Sci Consortium, Sandy Hook Field Stn, Bldg 22, Ft Hancock, NJ 07732 USA. AB Pitting the dynamicism and uncertainty inherent in undisturbed coastal ecosystems against the stability and predictability required of human-dominated landscapes creates the paradox of the dual mandate. We describe a gradient of estuarine types ranging from systems that experience little human intrusion-conservation estuaries-to those that are dominated by people or extractive uses-production and urban-industrial estuaries. Future approaches to managing these estuarine resources will require a division of the concept of marine protected areas into at least two subcategories: "conservation" managed areas (CConservationMAs) and "commerce" managed areas (CCommerceMAs). The latter includes conditions where humans are not only a core feature of the landscape but also where extractive uses drive a large part of the local, regional, and even national economy. System reliability and predictability of ecosystem services are integral components of any management scheme in CCommerceMAs. By recognizing this division managers can construct appropriate baselines that encompass the biodiversity and ecological integrity inherent in relatively undisturbed estuaries (or portions thereof), or the ecosystem health and system reliability that characterize urban-industrial systems. The terms ecosystem restoration and ecosystem rehabilitation are also distinguished; the former term is used to describe practices that return ecosystems to optimum biological integrity, whereas the latter term is applied to the health of human-dominated estuaries where the goal is to manage natural processes and functions. Our proposed approach does not mean that ecosystem quality is sacrificed in urban-industrial or production systems; to the contrary, contaminant source control, suitable sediment and water quality, and the human endeavors to address them are just as important to sustaining commercial activity as they are to the well-being of extant biota. So too, are the conservation and preservation of existing critical habitat (proximate reservoirs of biodiversity) in urban-industrial systems, and rehabilitation of habitats that support species coadapted to the presence of humans. 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Ctr Marine & Atmospher Res, Hamburg, Germany. Vrije Univ Amsterdam, Inst Environm Studies, Amsterdam, Netherlands. Carnegie Mellon Univ, Pittsburgh, PA 15213 USA. RP Tol, RSJ, Univ Hamburg, Res Unit Sustainabil & Global Change, Hamburg, Germany. AB Adaptation to climate change and mitigation of climate change are policy substitutes, as both reduce the impacts of climate change. Adaptation and mitigation should therefore be analysed together, as they indeed are, albeit in a rudimentary way, in cost-benefit analyses of emission abatement. However, adaptation and mitigation are done by different people operating at different spatial and temporal scales. This hampers analysis of the trade-offs between adaptation and mitigation. An exception is facilitative adaptation (enhancing adaptive capacity), which, like mitigation, requires long-term policies at macro level. Facilitative adaptation and mitigation not only both reduce impacts, but they also compete for resources. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 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Univ Maryland, Earth Syst Sci Interdisciplinary Ctr, College Pk, MD 20742 USA. Univ Maryland Ctr Environm Sci, Appalachian Lab, Frostburg, MD USA. RP DeFries, R, Univ Maryland, Dept Geog, 2181 LeFrak Hall, College Pk, MD 20742 USA. 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NR 0 TC 0 J9 INT J PSYCHOL BP 301 EP 301 PY 2000 PD JUN-AUG VL 35 IS 3-4 GA 337XP UT ISI:000088388802939 ER PT J AU Mitchell, TD Hulme, M TI Predicting regional climate change: living with uncertainty SO PROGRESS IN PHYSICAL GEOGRAPHY LA English DT Article C1 Univ E Anglia, Sch Environm Sci, Climat Res Unit, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. RP Mitchell, TD, Univ E Anglia, Sch Environm Sci, Climat Res Unit, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. AB Regional climate prediction is not an insoluble problem, but it is a problem characterized by inherent uncertainty. There are two sources of this uncertainty: the unpredictability of the climatic and global systems. The climate system is rendered unpredictable by deterministic chaos; the global system renders climate prediction uncertain through the unpredictability of the external forcings imposed on the climate system. It is commonly inferred from the differences between climate models on regional scales that the models are deficient, but climate system unpredictability is such that this inference is premature; the differences are due to an unresolved combination of climate system unpredictability and model deficiencies. Since model deficiencies are discussed frequently and the two sources of inherent uncertainty are discussed only rarely, this review considers the implications of climatic and global system unpredictability for regional climate prediction. Consequently we regard regional climate prediction as a cascade of uncertainty, rather than as a single result process sullied by model deficiencies. We suggest three complementary methodological approaches: (1) the use of multiple forcing scenarios to cope with global system unpredictability; (2) the use of ensembles to cope with climate system unpredictability; and (3) the consideration of the entire response of the climate system to cope with the nature of climate change. We understand regional climate change in terms of changes in the general circulations of the atmosphere and oceans; so we illustrate the role of uncertainty in the task of regional climate prediction with the behaviour of the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation. In conclusion we discuss the implications of the uncertainties in regional climate prediction for research into the impacts of climate change, and we recognize the role of feedbacks in complicating the relatively simple cascade of uncertainties presented here. 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RP Zhan, FB, Texas State Univ, Dept Geog, Texas Ctr Geog Informat Sci, 601 Univ Dr, San Marcos, TX 78666 USA. AB The unique geography of the Florida Keys presents both high risk of hurricane landfall and exceptional vulnerability to the effects of a hurricane strike. Inadequate hurricane shelters in the Keys make evacuation the only option for most residents, but the sole access road can become impassable well in advance of a major storm. These extraordinary conditions create challenges for emergency managers who must ensure that appropriate emergency plans are in place and to ensure that an orderly exodus can occur without stranding large numbers of people along an evacuation route with inadequate shelter capacity. This study attempts to answer two questions: (1) What is the minimum clearance time needed to evacuate all residents participating in an evacuation of the Florida Keys in advance of a major hurricane for 92,596 people - a population size calculated based on the 2000 US Census population data, census undercounts, and the number of tourists estimated to be in the area? (2) If a hurricane makes landfall in the Keys while the evacuation is in progress, how many residents will need to be accommodated if the evacuation route becomes impassable? The authors conducted agent-based microsimulations to answer the questions. Simulation results suggest that it takes 20 h and 11 min to 20 h and 14 min to evacuate the 92,596 people. This clearance time is less than the Florida state mandated 24-h clearance time limit. If one assumes that people evacuate in a 48-h period and the traffic flow from the Keys would follow that observed in the evacuation from Hurricane Georges, then a total of 460 people may be stranded if the evacuation route becomes impassable 48 h after an evacuation order is issued. If the evacuation route becomes impassable 40 h after an evacuation order is issued, then 14,000 people may be stranded. CR *MILL CONS INC, 2001, FLOR KEYS HURR EV RE *MONR COUNT, 2003, MONR COUNT PUBL FAC *ORNL, 1998, OAK RIDG EV MOD SYST *POST BUCKL SCHUH, 1999, HURR GEORG ASS REV H *PTV PLAN TRANSP V, 2003, VISSIM 3 70 US MAN *URS CORP INC, 2002, FLOR KEYS CARR CAP S *US CENS BUR, 2004, MONR COUNT QUICKF ANDERSON P, 1999, ORGAN SCI, V10, P216 BAKER EJ, 1991, INT J MASS EMERGENCI, V9, P287 BAKER EJ, 2000, HURRICANE EVACUATION BONABEAU E, 2002, HARVARD BUS REV, V80, P109 BONABEAU E, 2002, P NATL ACAD SCI U S3, V99, P7280 CHEN X, 2004, 83 ANN M TRANSP RES CHURCH RL, 2002, 3021 U CAL CLATR TES COVA TJ, 1997, INT J GEOGR INF SCI, V11, P763 COVA TJ, 2002, ENVIRON PLANN A, V34, P2211 CROSS JA, 1990, INT J MASS EMERGENCI, V8, P31 DASH N, 2001, GLOB ENV CHANGE ENV, V2, P119 DRABEK TE, 1986, HUMAN SYSTEM RESPONS EBELING W, 2001, THEOR BIOSCI, V120, P207 FARAHMAND K, 1997, P 1997 WINT SIM C, P1181 FU H, 2004, 83 ANN M TRANSP RES GILBERT N, 2002, P NATL ACAD SCI U S3, V99, P7197 HOBEIKA AG, 1985, EMERGENCY PLANNING S, V15, P23 JHA M, 2004, TRANSPORT RES REC, P40 MELETI DS, 1975, HUMAN SYSTEMS EXTREM MOELLER M, 1981, NUREGCR2504 NELSON CE, 1989, MODELS HURRICANE EVA PERKINS RD, 1968, J GEOL, V76, P710 PIDD M, 1996, EUR J OPER RES, V90, P413 SHEFFI Y, 1982, TRANSPORT RES A-POL, V16, P209 SINUANYSTERN Z, 1993, SOCIO ECON PLAN SCI, V27, P97 STERN E, 1996, J TRANSPORT GEOGR, V4, P169 URBANIK T, 2000, J HAZARD MATER, V75, P165 WHITE GF, 1975, ASSESSMENT RES NATUR, V1, P1 WIEDEMANN R, 1974, SCHRIFTENREIHE I VER, V8 WINDHAM GO, 1977, 51 MISS STAT U STAT NR 37 TC 0 J9 NATURAL HAZARDS BP 321 EP 338 PY 2006 PD JUL VL 38 IS 3 GA 039VG UT ISI:000237335000002 ER PT J AU BROWN, BJ HANSON, ME LIVERMAN, DM MERIDETH, RW TI GLOBAL SUSTAINABILITY - TOWARD DEFINITION SO ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article C1 UNIV WISCONSIN,INST ENVIRONM STUDIES,1007 WARF BLDG,MADISON,WI 53705. CR 1980, GLOBAL 2000 REPORT P 1980, WORLD CONSERVATION S 1984, POTENTIAL POPULATION 1985, DESERTIFICATION SAHE 1985, ENV PROFESSIONAL, V7, P205 1986, BIOL DIVERSITY GOES, V36, P708 1986, CONSERVING BIOL DIVE 1986, WORLD RESOURCES 1986 ANDERER J, 1981, ENERGY FINITE WORLD BORGSTROM G, 1969, TOO MANY STUDY EARTH BOULDING K, 1966, ENV QUALITY GROWING BROWN LR, 1981, BUILDING SUSTAINABLE BROWN LR, 1986, STATE WORLD BROWN LR, 1987, STATE WORLD CALDWELL LK, 1984, ENVIRON CONSERV, V11, P299 CLARK W, 1986, UNPUB SUSTAINABLE DE CLARK WC, 1985, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V7, P5 CONWAY GR, 1985, AGR ADMIN, V20, P31 COOKE E, 1976, MAN ENERGY SOC DALY H, 1973, STEADY STATE EC DALY H, 1980, EC ECOLOGY ETHICS ES DASMANN R, 1985, SUSTAINING TOMORROW DICASTRI F, 1986, ECOSYSTEM THEORY APP DOUGLASS GK, 1984, AGR SUSTAINABILITY C EDENS TC, 1985, SUSTAINABLE AGR INTE EHRENFELD DW, 1976, AM SCI, V64, P648 GEORGESCUROEGEN N, 1971, ENTROPY LAW EC PROCE GEVER JR, 1986, BEYOND OIL GOLDSMITH E, 1972, BLUEPRINT SURVIVAL HARDIN G, 1977, MANAGING COMMONS HOLDGATE M, 1982, WORLD ENV 1972 1982 HOLLING CS, 1978, ADAPTIVE ENV ASSESSM ILTIS HH, 1983, ENVIRONMENT, V25, P55 JACKSON W, 1984, M EXPECTATIONS LAND LAWRENCE R, 1984, AGR ECOSYSTEMS LOVINS A, 1979, SOFT ENERGY PATHS MASLOW A, 1970, MOTIVATION PERSONALI MEADOWS D, 1982, GROPING DARK 1ST DEC MILBRATH LW, 1984, ENVIRONMENTALIST, V4, P113 MITCHELL B, 1979, GEOGRAPHY RESOURCE A ODUM EP, 1983, BASIC ECOLOGY OPHULS W, 1977, ECOLOGY POLITICS SCA ORIORDAN T, 1985, ENVIRON PLANN A, V17, P1431 PEARSON C, 1985, DOWN BUSINESS MULTIN PIRAGES D, 1977, SUSTAINABLE SOC IMPL REPETTO R, 1985, GLOBAL POSSIBLE STEEN HK, 1984, HIST SUSTAINED YIELD TALBOT L, 1984, SUSTAINING TOMORROW THUROW L, 1980, ZERO SUM SOC TISDELL CA, 1985, ENV PROFESSIONAL, V7, P102 TIVY J, 1982, HUMAN IMPACT ECOSYST WATT K, 1977, UNSTEADY STATE NR 52 TC 52 J9 ENVIRON MANAGE BP 713 EP 719 PY 1987 PD NOV VL 11 IS 6 GA L3213 UT ISI:A1987L321300002 ER PT J AU Jongens, R Gibb, J Alloway, BV TI A new hazard zonation methodology applied to residentially developed sea-cliffs with very low erosion rates, East Coast Bays, Auckland, New Zealand SO NATURAL HAZARDS LA English DT Article C1 Inst Geol & Nucl Sci Ltd GNS Sci, Dunedin, New Zealand. Coastal Management Consultancy Ltd, Tauranga, New Zealand. GNS Sci, Gracefield Res Ctr, Lower Hutt, New Zealand. RP Jongens, R, Inst Geol & Nucl Sci Ltd GNS Sci, Private Bag 1930, Dunedin, New Zealand. AB A new hazard zonation methodology is applied to the East Coast Bays area of North Shore City, one of the most residentially developed cliffed shorelines in New Zealand. It is based on a series of geotechnical cliff profiles from three pilot study areas (George Gair Lookout, Rahopara Reserve-Kennedy Memorial Park, and Mairangi Bay-Rothesay Bay) which detail many of the variables that influence overall cliff stability. The methodology requires calculation of a Coastal Landslide Hazard Zone (CLHZ) width for each geotechnical profile and is derived by quantifying three factors: the rate of long-term sea-cliff retreat; the amount of horizontal retreat expected from either joint block fall, fault plane failure, or bedding plane failure, coupled with the amount of horizontal retreat resulting from slumping of the top weathered layer; and a safety factor. The rate of long-term sea-cliff retreat is multiplied by a hazard assessment period of 100 years, which is then added with the two other factors to derive a CLHZ width. Finally, the widths are entered into a Geographic Information System (GIS) to delineate a hazard zone. Owing to the very low rates (< 0.1 m a(-1)) of sea-cliff retreat in the East Coast Bays area, the long-term rate of sea-cliff retreat at each profile location could not be quantified by conventional survey techniques. Instead, a Sea-cliff Vulnerability Index (SVI) was employed to quantify the long-term rate. Weighted variables considered in the SVI include the bedding dip direction, the occurrence of faults and their orientation, sea-cliff aspect, cliff-toe and cliff-face lithology, cliff-top height, and the presence of groundwater seepage. Calculated CLHZ widths along East Coast Bays range between 13 m and 34 m inland of a reference cliff-line in response to spatial variations of the sea-cliff geology and morphology. The widths reflect the estimated degree of risk over the next 100 years from coastal erosion and landslips. CR *IPCC, 2001, CLIM CHANG 2001 SCI *RIL CONS, 1999, GEOT APPR SAF BARR F ALLOWAY B, 2005, J ROY SOC NEW ZEAL, V35, P229 BALLANCE PF, 1974, J GEOL, V82, P439 BELL P, 2003, MICROELECTRON INT, V20, P21 BELL T, 2000, HEAT TREAT MET, V27, P1 BIANIWSKI ZT, 1989, ENG ROCK MASS CLASSI BRODNAX RC, 1991, THESIS U AUCKLAND DELAMARE GN, 1992, THESIS U WAIKATO DELANGE WP, 1999, TEPHRA, V17, P3 GIBB JG, 1978, NEW ZEAL J MAR FRESH, V12, P429 GIBB JG, 1981, WATER SOIL TECH PUBL, V21, P63 GIBB JG, 1982, NEW ZEAL J GEOL GEOP, V25, P335 GIBB JG, 1984, NATURAL HAZARDS NZ, P135 GIBB JG, 1986, R SOC NZ B, V24, P377 GIBB JG, 1992, DEPT CONSERV SCI RES, V55, P101 GIBB JG, 1998, 986 RG COUNC CONS GIBB JG, 2001, 20016 GISB DISTR COU GIBBS JG, 1983, NZ ENG, V38, P15 GIBBS JG, 2002, 20021 NAP CIT COUNC GLASSEY P, 2003, P COSTS PORTS AUSTR, P12 GULYAEV SA, 2004, J COASTAL RES, V20, P871 ISAAC MJ, 1994, CRETACEOUS CENOZOIC, V8, P230 MOON VG, 1984, REPORT COASTAL CLIFF MOON VG, 1994, J COASTAL RES, V10, P663 MOON VG, 2003, P COASTS PORTS AUSTR MOORE LJ, 2002, MAR GEOL, V181, P265 SELBY MJ, 1980, Z GEOMORPHOL, V24, P31 SPORLI KB, 1989, ROYAL SOC NZ B, V26, P183 WHALLEY WB, 1984, SLOPE INSTABILITY, P217 NR 30 TC 0 J9 NATURAL HAZARDS BP 223 EP 244 PY 2007 PD JAN VL 40 IS 1 GA 125NR UT ISI:000243449300010 ER PT J AU SWIFT, J TI WHY ARE RURAL PEOPLE VULNERABLE TO FAMINE SO IDS BULLETIN-INSTITUTE OF DEVELOPMENT STUDIES LA English DT Article RP SWIFT, J, INST DEV STUDIES,BRIGHTON,ENGLAND. CR CISSOKO SM, 1968, B I FONDAMENTAL AF B, V30, P806 DEWAAL A, 1987, FAMINE KILLS DARFUR DEWAAL A, 1989, IN PRESS POPULATION, V43 DREZE J, 1988, 3 LOND SCH EC DEV EC SCOTT JC, 1976, MORAL EC PEASANT SEN AK, 1981, POVERTY FAMINES ESSA, V1, P1 SWIFT J, 1985, PLANNING DROUGHT FAM THOMPSON EP, 1971, PAST PRESENT, V50, P76 WATTS MJ, 1983, SILENT VIOLENCE FOOD NR 9 TC 31 J9 IDS BULL-INST DEVELOP STUD BP 8 EP 15 PY 1989 PD APR VL 20 IS 2 GA U6244 UT ISI:A1989U624400002 ER PT J AU PARKER, DJ HARDING, DM TI NATURAL HAZARD EVALUATION, PERCEPTION AND ADJUSTMENT SO GEOGRAPHY LA English DT Article C1 UNIV WALES UNIV COLL N WALES,DEPT FORESTRY & WOOD SCI,BANGOR LL57 2UW,GWYNEDD,WALES. RP PARKER, DJ, MIDDLESEX POLYTECH,LONDON,ENGLAND. CR *UK SCH COUNC, 1977, MAN NAT HAZ HURR MAN BARROWS HH, 1923, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V13, P1 BAUMANN DD, 1972, SCIENCE, P1386 BURTON I, 1961, 70 U CHIC DEP GEOGR BURTON I, 1964, NAT RESOUR J, V3, P412 BURTON I, 1968, 1 U TOR DEP GEOGR NA BURTON I, 1969, 115 U CHIC DEP GEOGR BURTON I, 1978, ENV HAZARD, V1, P1 CHANDLER TJ, 1976, GEOGR J, V142, P57 DOORNKAMP JC, 1979, ATLAS DROUGHT BRITAI HARDING DM, 1972, THESIS U WALES HARDING DM, 1974, NATURAL HAZARDS LOCA HEWITT K, 1971, HAZARDOUSNESS PLACE KATES RW, 1962, 78 U CHIC DEP GEOGR KATES RW, 1970, 14 U TOR DEP GEOGR N KATES RW, 1978, MANAGING TECHNOLOGIC KIDSON C, 1953, GEOGRAPHY, V38, P1 MITCHELL JK, 1974, PERSPECTIVES ENV MURPHY FC, 1958, 56 U CHIC DEP GEOGR PARKER DJ, 1976, THESIS U WALES PARKER DJ, 1978, DISASTERS, V2, P47 PENNINGROWSELL EC, 1977, BENEFITS FLOOD ALLEV PORTER EA, 1970, THESIS U CAMBRIDGE ROONEY J, 1969, WATER EARTH MAN SAARINEN TF, 1966, 106 U CHIC DEP GEOGR SCHIFF M, 1970, 15 NAT HAZ RES WORK SHEAFFER JR, 1960, 65 U CHIC DEP GEOGR SIMON HA, 1957, MODELS MAN SOCIAL RA SMITH K, 1979, HUMAN ADJUSTMENT FLO WALL G, 1973, ENV BEHAVIOR JUN, P29 WHITE GF, 1942, 29 U CHIC DEP GEOGR WHITE GF, 1958, 57 U CHIC DEP GEOGR WHITE GF, 1961, 70 U CHIC DEP GEOGR WHITE GF, 1974, NATURAL HAZARDS LOCA WHITE GF, 1975, ASSESSMENT RES NATUR, V1, P1 WISNER B, 1977, DISASTERS, V1, P47 NR 36 TC 5 J9 GEOGRAPHY BP 307 EP 316 PY 1979 VL 64 IS 285 GA HX719 UT ISI:A1979HX71900007 ER PT J AU Lane, ME Kirshen, PH Vogel, RM TI Indicators of impacts of global climate change on US water resources SO JOURNAL OF WATER RESOURCES PLANNING AND MANAGEMENT-ASCE LA English DT Article C1 Tufts Univ, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Medford, MA 02155 USA. RP Lane, ME, Tufts Univ, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Medford, MA 02155 USA. AB Environmental and socioeconomic indicators are selected to study the impacts of global warming on the water resources of the United States. One of the indicators, regional reservoir storage vulnerability, is a particularly useful index summarizing the effectiveness of regional water supply systems to meet demands. A comparison of indicator tabulation and evaluation methods finds that reporting an indicator as a fraction of its stress threshold is most effective. Indicator display methods are compared, and the star diagram proves most effective as a visual aggregation technique. Indicators and evaluation methods are applied to the present climate and to one possible climate change scenario assuming economic growth. It is apparent that the primary impacts of global warming occur in the western U.S. and include (1) fewer relative stresses an hydroelectric systems due to an increase in energy supply from other sources, and (2) more stresses on available water resources due to increases in total withdrawals and, in some cases, decreases in flows. The writers believe that with wise indicator display methods, mathematical aggregation of indicators into indices may be unnecessary. CR *ENV SYST RES I, 1997, ARC VIEW GIS VERS 3 *UN DIV SUST DEV, 1996, IND SUST DEV FRAM ME *US BUR CENS, 1990, 1990 US CENS *US DEP LAB, 1991, CONS PRIC IND DET RE *US EPA, 1996, BETT ASS SCI INT POI *US EPA, 1997, EPA841R97010 OFF WAT *US WAT RES COUNC, 1970, WAT RES REG SUBR NAT *US WAT RES COUNC, 1979, NAT WAT RES 1975 200, V3 *USA CORPS ENG, 1996, WAT CONTR INFR NAT I DALY C, 1994, J APPL METEOROL, V33, P140 FALKENMARK M, 1989, AMBIO, V18, P112 GLEICK PH, 1990, CLIMATE CHANGE US WA HOEKSTRA AY, 1995, GLOBO REP SERIES, V6 HOUGHTON JT, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995 KIRSHEN PH, 1995, J WATER RESOUR PLNG, V121 PETSCH HE, 1985, 85166 US DEP INT US RASKIN P, 1997, WATER FUTURES ASSESS ROGERS P, 1999, J WATER RES PL-ASCE, V125, P74 ROGERS PR, MEASURING ENV QUALIT RUSSELL GL, 1995, ATMOS OCEAN, V33, P683 SOLLEY WB, 1993, ESTIMATED USE WATER VOGEL RM, 1999, J IRRIG DRAIN E-ASCE, V125, P148 VOGEL RM, 1999, J WATER RESOUR PLNG, V125 NR 23 TC 3 J9 J WATER RESOUR PLAN MAN-ASCE BP 194 EP 204 PY 1999 PD JUL-AUG VL 125 IS 4 GA 211LB UT ISI:000081161600003 ER PT J AU van Kerkhoff, L TI Integrated research: concepts of connection in environmental science and policy SO ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE & POLICY LA English DT Article C1 Australian Natl Univ, Natl Ctr Epidemiol & Populat Hlth, Canberra, ACT 0200, Australia. RP van Kerkhoff, L, Australian Natl Univ, Natl Ctr Epidemiol & Populat Hlth, Canberra, ACT 0200, Australia. AB The idea of integration in research has risen rapidly in both environmental science and public environmental policy since the mid-1990s, and has encouraged innovative relationships between scientists and practitioners in a range of contexts, Yet the concept of integration is broad and ambiguous, which inhibits efforts to learn from these innovations. In this paper, I review the different concepts of integration that currently exist in international and Australian science and environmental policy contexts. Drawing on comprehensive examples, I identify 12 thematic categories of integration. The themes encompass integration within science, as well as integration between scientific and non-scientific partners. They also include integration focused on activities, and on the organisational or institutional structures, that govern research activity, These groupings reflect significant differences in the ways science-policy relationships are understood. and the main problems integration is intended to overcome. They serve as a foundation for a framework that researchers, policy-makers and other partners can use to compare and learn front different integrative research approaches. This is a first step towards building a comprehensive understarding of how integration can contribute to better environmental outcomes. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *AUSTR GOV, 2004, BACK AUSTR AB FIND O *CRC PROG, 1999, GUID APPL 2000 SEL R *CRC PROGR, 2001, 2 YEAR REV GUID *DIR GEN RES, 2003, PROV IMPL INT PROJ B *EUR COMM, 2002, 6 FRAM PROGR BRIEF O *INT OC COMM, 2004, ICM BAS *LAND WAT AUSTR, 2001, STRAT R D PLAN 2001 *MDBC, 2004, INT CATCHM MAN POL S *MDBC, 2004, MURR DARL BAS IN OV *NATL RES COUNC BO, 2000, OUR COMM J TRANS SUS *UN ENV PROGR, 2003, SYNTH RESP STRENGTH *UN, 2002, REP WORLD SUMM SUST ARAM JD, 2004, HUM RELAT, V57, P379 BELLAMY J, 2002, INTEGRATED CATCHMENT BERKES F, 2003, NAVIGATING SOCIAL EC, V1, P1 BOSCH OJH, 2003, SYST RES BEHAV SCI, V20, P107 CALLON M, 2003, SCI INNOVATION RETHI, P30 CHAMBERS R, 1983, RURAL DEV PUTTING LA CICINSAIN B, 1998, INTEGRATED COASTAL O FRITZ JS, 1998, INT ENVIRON AFFAIR, V10, P173 FUNTOWICZ SO, 1993, FUTURES, V25, P739 GIBBONS M, 1994, NRE PROD KNOWLEDGE D HINCHCLIFFE F, 1999, FERTILE GROUND IMPAC HOLLING CS, 1978, UN ENV PROGR KATES RW, 2001, SCIENCE, V292, P641 KINZIG AP, 2000, EXECUTIVE SUMMARY NA MARTEN P, 1999, CLIMATE CHANGE INTEG MARTIN BR, 2003, SCI INNOVATION RETHI, P1 NOWOTNY H, 2001, RETHINKING SCI KNOWL QUINLAN T, 2004, ENVIRON SCI POLICY, V7, P537 RIP A, 1997, SOC SCI INFORM, V36, P615 SHINN T, 2002, SOC STUD SCI, V32, P599 SHOGREN JF, 2003, ENVIRON SCI POLICY, V6, P233 STEEL B, 2004, ENVIRON SCI POLICY, V7, P1 WEINGART P, 1997, SOC SCI INFORM, V36, P615 ZIMAN JM, 2000, REAL SCI WHAT IT IS NR 36 TC 3 J9 ENVIRON SCI POLICY BP 452 EP 463 PY 2005 VL 8 IS 5 GA 981HG UT ISI:000233077700002 ER PT J AU Doornkamp, JC TI Coastal flooding, global warming and environmental management SO JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT LA English DT Review C1 Univ Nottingham, Dept Geog, Nottingham NG7 2RD, England. RP Doornkamp, JC, Univ Nottingham, Dept Geog, Nottingham NG7 2RD, England. AB A review of the difficulties associated with the definition of coastal flood frequencies and magnitudes leads to a recognition that there is considerable doubt in many parts of the world as to the precise nature of this particular hazard. Similarly, a review of the sea-level measurements that have been used to indicate a response to global warming shows that there is uncertainty about the amount of other controlling influences. What is clear; however are that past management decisions about human endeavours in the coastal zone (including flood defences, occupance of flood-prone lands, extraction of ground water and natural gas) have had an impact on relative land and sea levels and have done more to increase the risk of coastal flooding than can be assigned so far to global warming. In addition, these changes induced by human activity may render inappropriate calculations of coastal-flood frequencies based on historical records since the latter relate to a period of time when the controls on flooding may have been very different. (C) 1998 Academic Press Limited. 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ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS LA English DT Article C1 UNIV OXFORD,ENVIRONM CHANGE UNIT,OXFORD OX1 3TB,ENGLAND. UNIV CALIF BERKELEY,DEPT GEOG,BERKELEY,CA 94720. RP BOHLE, HG, UNIV FREIBURG,INST CULT GEOG,W-7800 FREIBURG,GERMANY. AB Coping with climatic variations or future climate change must be rooted In a full understanding of the complex structures and causes of present vulnerability, and how it may evolve over the coming decades. A theory of the social vulnerability of food insecurity draws upon explanations in human ecology, expanded entitlements and political economy to map the risk of exposure to harmful perturbations, ability to cope with crises, and potential for recovery. Vulnerable socio-economic groups in Zimbabwe and the potential effects of climate change illustrate some of the applications of the theory. CR 1989, SOCIAL INDICATORS DE APPADURAI A, 1984, J ASIAN STUD, V43, P481 BLAIKIE PM, 1987, SOC LAND DEGRADATION BOHLE HG, 1993, PROGR HUMAN GEOGRAPH, V13, P43 CHAMBERS R, 1989, IDS B, V20, P1 CHEN RS, 1994, FOOD POLICY, V19 CHRISTENSEN G, 1992, 5 FOOD STUD GROUP WO CHRISTENSEN G, 1993, 7 FOOD STUD GROUP WO CURTIS D, 1988, PREVENTING FAMINE PO DOWNING TE, 1991, ASSESSING SOCIOECONO DOWNING TE, 1991, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V1, P365 DOWNING TE, 1992, 1 U OXF ENV CHANG UN DOWNING TE, 1993, COPING VULNERABILITY DREZE J, 1987, ECON PHILOS, V4, P57 FISCHER G, 1994, ENV CHANGE, V4, P49 GLEICK PH, 1993, WATER CRISIS GUIDE W GOVEREH J, 1991, MARKET REFORMS RES P HARRISS B, 1990, EC POLITICAL WE 1222, P2783 HOUGHTON JT, 1992, CLIMATE CHANGE 1992 LIVERMAN DM, 1990, GLOBAL ENV CHANGE CO, P27 MAGADZA CHD, 1994, FOOD POLICY, V19 MUDIMU G, 1990, FOOD SECURITY POLICI OFFE C, 1984, CONTRADICTIONS WELFA REILLY JM, 1994, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V4, P24 SCHNEIDER S, IN PRESS GLOBAL ENV SEN AK, 1981, POVERTY FAMINES ESSA, V1, P1 SEN AK, 1990, POLITICAL EC HUNGER, V1, P34 SWIFT J, 1989, IDS B, V20, P8 WATTS MJ, 1991, REV AFRICAN POLITICA, V51, P9 WATTS, 1988, PREVENTING FAMINE PO WOLFF R, 1987, EC MARXIAN VERSUS NE, P150 NR 31 TC 35 J9 GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANGE BP 37 EP 48 PY 1994 PD MAR VL 4 IS 1 GA NK750 UT ISI:A1994NK75000004 ER PT J AU Stallings, RA TI Weberian political sociology and sociological disaster studies SO SOCIOLOGICAL FORUM LA English DT Article C1 Univ So Calif, Sch Policy Planning & Dev, Los Angeles, CA 90089 USA. Univ So Calif, Dept Sociol, Los Angeles, CA 90089 USA. RP Stallings, RA, Univ So Calif, Sch Policy Planning & Dev, Los Angeles, CA 90089 USA. AB The specialized field of disaster studies seems to be moving farther away from mainstream sociology, to the detriment of both. For sociologists working in this field, application of Max Weber's political sociology is proposed as one way to reconnect their research with longstanding concerns of the discipline. Weber's political sociology contains a conflict model focusing on structured inequalities of class, status, and power. Its relevance to both contemporary sociology and sociological disaster studies is illustrated through a reexamination of one of the early classic studies of disaster. The paper concludes with an overview of Weber's thoughts about the role of values in research and a brief comparison of Weber's political sociology with alternative theories. 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RP Antonakos, AK, Univ Patras, Dept Geol, Rion 26500, Greece. AB The assessment of groundwater vulnerability to pollution has proved to be an effective tool for the delineation of protection zones in areas affected by groundwater contamination due to intensive fertilizer applications. By modifying and optimizing the well known and widely used DRASTIC model it was possible to predict the intrinsic vulnerability to pollution as well as the groundwater pollution risk more accurately. This method incorporated the use of simple statistical and geostatistical techniques for the revision of the factor ratings and weightings of all the DRASTIC parameters under a GIS environment. The criterion for these modifications was the correlation coefficient of each parameter with the nitrates concentration in groundwater. On the basis of their statistical significance, some parameters were subtracted from the DRASTIC equation, while land use was considered as an additional DRASTIC parameter. 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Fdn Futuro Latinoamer, Quito, Ecuador. IUCN, CH-1196 Gland, Switzerland. UN, Millennium Project, New York, NY 10017 USA. RP Melnick, DJ, Columbia Univ, Ctr Environm Res & Conservat, 1200 Amsterdam Ave, New York, NY 10027 USA. CR MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 *UN MILL PROJ, 2005, ENV HUM WELL BEING P BRUCE N, 2000, B WORLD HEALTH ORGAN, V78, P1078 BURKE L, 2000, PILOT ANAL GLOBAL EC DASZAK P, 2002, CONSERVATION MED ECO FEDSON DS, 2003, CLIN INFECT DIS, V36, P1562 KOJIMA M, 2001, 508 WORLD BANK LOGIUDICE K, 2003, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V100, P567 MANGA L, 1995, ANN SOC BELG MED TR, V75, P129 MOLYNEUX DH, 1997, ANN TROP MED PARASIT, V91, P827 NORRIS DE, 2004, ECOHEALTH, V1, P19 PATZ JA, 2002, CONSERVATION MED ECO PATZ JA, 2004, ENVIRON HEALTH PERSP, V112, P1092 PAULY D, 1998, SCIENCE, V279, P860 PEARL M, 2004, HUMAN I CAPACITY BUI ROBERTS CM, 2002, SCIENCE, V295, P1280 SODHI NS, 2004, TRENDS ECOL EVOL, V19, P654 TAYLOR LH, 2001, PHILOS T ROY SOC B, V356, P983 VASCONCELOS PFC, 2001, CAD SAUDE PUBLICA S, V17, P155 WALSH JF, 1993, PARASITOLOGY, V106, P55 NR 20 TC 2 J9 LANCET BP 723 EP 725 PY 2005 PD FEB 19 VL 365 IS 9460 GA 898SP UT ISI:000227096800031 ER PT J AU Tao, FL Yokozawa, M Hayashi, Y Lin, ED TI A perspective on water resources in China: Interactions between climate change and soil degradation SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 Chinese Acad Agr Sci, Inst Agr Environm & Sustainable Dev, Beijing 100081, Peoples R China. Natl Inst Agroenvironm Sci, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 3058604, Japan. RP Tao, FL, Chinese Acad Agr Sci, Inst Agr Environm & Sustainable Dev, Beijing 100081, Peoples R China. AB Water is one of the most critical resources in China. Climate change and soil degradation will be two major, interrelated environmental challenges faced by managers of water resources in coming decades. In this study, we used a water-balance model and updated databases to assess the interacting impacts of climate change and soil degradation on China's future water resources. We plotted the spatial pattern of changes in actual and potential evapotranspiration, soil moisture deficits, and surface runoff across China in the 2020s using a resolution of 0.5degrees latitude and longitude under scenarios based on climate change, soil degradation, and a combination of the two. The results showed that climate change would affect the magnitude and spatial pattern of water resources on a national scale. Some regions in central, southwestern, and northeastern China would become more vulnerable to disastrous drought and floods as a result of soil degradation. Under the combined impacts of climate change and soil degradation, soil moisture deficits would increase most in central, western, and southwestern China; surface runoff would increase most in southeastern China. More detailed process-based models are needed to capture feedback mechanisms more effectively. CR *FAO, 1992, REP EXP CONS REV FAO *IPCC, 1996, SCI CLI CHANG CONTR, P572 WATSON RT, 1998, REGIONAL IMPACTS CLI, V1, P1 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 ARNELL NW, 1999, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V9, S51 BRYANT NA, 1990, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V17, P243 BUDYKO MI, 1956, TEPLOVOI BALANS ZEMN, P255 CHANG J, 1970, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V60, P340 DUNNE KA, 1996, INT J CLIMATOL, V16, P841 EVANS TE, 1996, GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANG, P248 FEDDEMA JJ, 1999, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V42, P561 FENG Q, 2001, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V48, P535 FISCHER G, 2000, GLOBAL AGRO ECOLOGIC LEGATES DR, 1990, INT J CLIMATOL, V10, P111 LEGATES DR, 1990, THEOR APPL CLIMATOL, V41, P11 LEGATES DR, 1992, GEOGR REV, V82, P253 LEGATES DR, 1995, INT J CLIMATOL, V15, P237 LYNDEN GWJ, 1997, ASSESSMENT STATUS HU MABBUTT JA, 1989, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V15, P191 MIDDLETON NJ, 1992, WORLD ATLAS DESERTIF, P90 NEW M, 1999, J CLIMATE, V12, P829 NICHOLSON SE, 1988, PROG PHYS GEOG, V12, P36 OLDEMAN LR, 1988, 884 ISRIC OLDEMAN LR, 1991, WORLD MAP STATUS HUM OROPEZAMOTA JL, 1995, J SOIL WATER CONSERV, V50, P523 PENMAN HL, 1948, P ROY SOC LOND A MAT, V193, P120 PIERCE FJ, 1994, SOIL EROSION RES MET, P235 QIAN WH, 2001, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V50, P419 TAO F, 2003, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V118, P251 TAO FL, 2003, AMBIO, V32, P295 THORNTHWAITE CW, 1948, GEOGR REV, V38, P55 VARIS O, 2001, GEOMORPHOLOGY, V41, P93 WILLIAM MJ, 1996, INTERACTIONS DESERTI, P270 WILLIAMS JR, 1981, J SOIL WATER CONSERV, V36, P82 WILLMOTT CJ, 1985, J CLIMATOL, V5, P589 NR 35 TC 0 J9 CLIMATIC CHANGE BP 169 EP 197 PY 2005 PD JAN VL 68 IS 1-2 GA 899ZF UT ISI:000227183700010 ER PT J AU Karl, HA Susskind, LE Wallace, KH TI A dialogue not a diatribe - Effective integration of science and policy through joint fact finding SO ENVIRONMENT LA English DT Article C1 US Geol Survey, Washington, DC USA. MIT, Environm Policy & Planning Grp, Dept Urban Studies & Planning, Cambridge, MA 02139 USA. RP Karl, HA, US Geol Survey, Washington, DC USA. CR 2001, FUTURE ROLES OPPORTU, P179 *NRC, 1999, OUR COMM JOURN TRANS, P144 *US DOI, STRAT PLAIN FY 2003 ANDREWS CJ, 2002, HUMBLE ANAL PRACTICE, P200 BEIERLE TC, 2003, EVALUATING DISPUTE R BRYAN TA, 2004, SOC NATUR RESOUR, V17, P881 BUSH V, 1945, SCI ENDLESS FRONTIER CASH DW, 2003, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V100, P8086 EHRMANN J, 1999, CONSENSUS BUILDING H, P375 FULLER B, 2006, THESIS MIT JACOBS KL, 2003, ENVIRONMENT, V45, P30 KATES RW, 2001, SCIENCE, V292, P641 KEMMIS D, 2002, ISSUES SCI TECHNOLOG KOONTZ TM, 2004, COLLABORATIVE ENV MA, P210 LANE N, 2006, SCIENCE, V312, P1847 LAYZER JA, DEEP FREEZE IMPACT S LAYZER JA, 2002, ENV CASE TRANSLATING, P209 MACHACEK J, 2006, GANNETT NEWS SE 1127 MCCREARY S, 2001, COAST MANAGE, V29, P183 MCCREARY S, 2001, MEDIATION Q, V18 MCCREARY S, 2003, MEDIATION Q, V18 MCMAHON M, 1994, EARLY AM TECHNOLOGY, P114 MCVICKER G, 2000, AUR PARTN NAT M CHAR MILLER A, 1999, ENV PROBLEM SOLVING OZAWA C, 1997, EOS T AM GEOPHYS UN, V78, P598 PEYSER J, 2005, THESIS MIT RITTEL HWJ, 1973, POLICY SCI, V4, P155 SARWITZ D, 2000, PREDICTION SCI DECIS, P405 SARWITZ P, 2006, ENVIRONMENT, V48, P8 SCARLETT PL, 2004, JOINT FACT FINDING I SUSSKIND LE, 1987, BREAKING IMPASSE CON SUSSKIND LE, 2001, BETTER ENV POLICY ST, P187 SUSSKIND LE, 2006, BREAKING ROBERTS RUL, P222 WONDOLLOCK JM, 2000, MAKING COLLABORATION ZUCKERMAN H, 1988, HDB SOCIOLOGY NR 35 TC 1 J9 ENVIRONMENT BP 20 EP + PY 2007 PD JAN-FEB VL 49 IS 1 GA 128YC UT ISI:000243694600005 ER PT J AU Cutter, SL Solecki, WD TI Setting environmental justice in space and place: Acute and chronic airborne toxic releases in the southeastern United States SO URBAN GEOGRAPHY LA English DT Article C1 FLORIDA STATE UNIV,DEPT GEOG,TALLAHASSEE,FL 32306. RP Cutter, SL, UNIV S CAROLINA,DEPT GEOG,COLUMBIA,SC 29208. AB This paper compares the spatial distribution and character of two categories of risk-chronic toxic releases (small-scale, long-term exposures) and acute releases (large-scale, short-term events)-for the southeastern United States from 1987-1990. Our purpose is to identify whether lower-income minority counties are disproportionately at risk from these airborne releases of extremely hazardous substances. We found a fairly uniform distribution of chronic releases across the region, whereas the acute releases exhibited a more clustered pattern in the Carolinas, Florida, and Alabama. A correlation analysis failed to indicate any association between the racial composition of the county and the frequency of airborne toxic releases, yet wealth indicators were positively associated with the frequency of releases, When examining these in more detail, a principal components analysis yielded a hierarchy of toxic counties: (1) high-exposure urban counties, (2) high-exposure African American counties, (3) low-release counties, (4) high-acute-release counties. A further refinement of the analysis identified subgroupings of counties, but again we failed to find conclusive evidence of inequalities. Instead, we conclude that for the Southeast, there are a multitude of processes at work in producing the differential toxic releases reflected in the southern riskscape. More research is needed on the underlying sociospatial processes that give rise to the production of hazardousness of places and their populations. CR *UN CHURCH CHRIST, 1987, TOX WAST RAC NAT REP *US EPA, 1993, 745R92003 *US EPA, 1994, 749C94001 *US GEN ACC OFF, 1983, SIT HAZ WAST LANDF T ADEOLA FO, 1994, ENVIRON BEHAV, V26, P99 ANDERTON DL, 1994, DEMOGRAPHY, V31, P229 ANDERTON DL, 1994, EVALUATION REV, V18, P123 BERRY BJL, 1977, SOCIAL BURDENS ENV P BLAIKIE PM, 1994, RISK NATURAL HAZARDS, V1, P1 BRYANT B, 1992, RACE INCIDENCE ENV H BULLARD RD, 1983, SOCIOL INQ, V53, P273 BULLARD RD, 1990, DUMPING DIXIE RACE C BULLARD RD, 1992, RACE INCIDENCE ENV H, P82 BULLARD RD, 1993, CONFRONTING ENV RACI BULLARD RD, 1994, ENVIRONMENT, V36, P10 BULLARD RD, 1994, ENVIRONMENT, V36, P39 BULLARD RD, 1994, UNEQUAL PROTECTION E BURKE LM, 1993, GEO INFO SYSTEMS OCT, P44 COBB JC, 1984, IND SO SOC 1877-1984 COLCLOUGH G, 1988, RURAL SOCIOL, V53, P73 CREWMEYER K, 1994, S CAROLINA POLICY FO, V5, P25 CUTTER S, 1995, PROGR HUMAN GEOGRAPH, V19, P107 CUTTER SL, 1989, PROF GEOGR, V41, P149 CUTTER SL, 1991, URBAN GEOGR, V12, P417 CUTTER SL, 1993, LIVING RISK GEOGRAPH CUTTER SL, 1994, BUSINESS EC REV, V41, P3 CUTTER SL, 1994, ENV RISKS HAZARDS CUTTER SL, 1996, RISK ANAL, V16, P517 GEISER K, 1983, SCI PEOPLE SUM, P13 GLICKMAN TS, 1994, RENEWABLE RESOURCES, V12, P17 GOLDMAN BA, 1994, TOXIC WASTES RACE RE GOTTLIEB R, 1993, FORCING SPRING TRANS GOTTLIEB R, 1993, RISK ISSUES HLTH SAF, V4, P235 GOTTLIEB R, 1994, ENV CONTAMINANTS HLT HIRD JA, 1993, J POLICY ANAL MANAG, V12, P323 HOLM DM, 1994, THESIS U S CAROLINA KIRBY A, 1990, NOTHING FEAR RISKS H KRIMSKY S, 1992, SOCIAL THEORIES RISK KRUVANT W, 1974, INCIDENCE POLLUTION LAKE RW, 1995, ANN M ASS AM GEOGR C LIVERMAN DM, 1986, CITIES MAY, P142 MAYO DG, 1991, ACCEPTABLE EVIDENCE MCMASTER RB, 1988, P 3 INT S SPAT DAT H, P143 MITCHELL JK, 1989, GEOGR REV, V79, P391 MITCHELL JK, 1990, NOTHING FEAR RISKS H, P131 MOHAI P, 1992, RACE INCIDENCE ENV H, P163 PALM RI, 1990, NATURAL HAZARDS INTE PERLIN SA, 1995, ENVIRON SCI TECHNOL, V29, P69 PIJAWKA KD, 1985, DANGEROUS PROPERTIES SCHWAB J, 1994, DEEPER SHADES GREEN SOLECKI WD, 1992, J RURAL STUD, V8, P1 STOCKWELL JR, 1993, RISK ANAL, V13, P155 SZASZ A, 1994, ECOPOPULISM TOXIC WA WINSBERG M, 1994, AM DEMOGRAPHICS FEB, P44 ZIMMERMAN R, 1993, RISK ANAL, V13, P649 ZIMMERMAN R, 1994, FORDHAM URBAN LAW J, V21, P633 NR 56 TC 22 J9 URBAN GEOGR BP 380 EP 399 PY 1996 PD JUL 1 VL 17 IS 5 GA VK465 UT ISI:A1996VK46500002 ER PT J AU Reid, P Vogel, C TI Living and responding to multiple stressors in South Africa - Glimpses from KwaZulu-Natal SO GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS LA English DT Article C1 Univ Witwatersrand, Sch Archaeol Geog & Environm Studies, ZA-2050 Johannesburg, South Africa. RP Vogel, C, Univ Witwatersrand, Sch Archaeol Geog & Environm Studies, Post Bag 3, ZA-2050 Johannesburg, South Africa. AB Rural, resource-poor communities currently face a number of stressors that curtail livelihood options and reduce overall quality of life. Climate stress in southern Africa could potentially further threaten the livelihoods of such communities. Inappropriate response and adaptation options to risks, including climate stress, could further undermine development efforts in the region. The design and effective implementation of strategies to improve coping and adaptation to possible future risks cannot be undertaken without a detailed assessment of current response options to various risks. By using the Sustainable Livelihoods Framework, this pilot study identifies some of the strategies and constraints to secure livelihoods that are currently being used by small-scale farmers in the Muden area of KwaZulu-Natal. The role and perception of climate risks in relation to a variety of other constraints and risks in the area are also examined. Health status, lack of information and ineffective institutional structures and processes are shown to be some of the key factors aggravating current response options and overall development initiatives with potential negative outcomes for future adaptation to periods of possible heightened climate stress. (C) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *AFR DEV BANK, 2002, 8 C PART UN FRAM CON *DFID, 1999, SUST LIV GUID SHEETS *IDS, 2004, CLIM CHANG DEV, V35 WATSON RT, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, V1, P1 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 *IUCN WORLD CONS U, 2004, SUST LIV CLIM CHANG *KZN, 2004, KWAZULUNATAL DROUGT *UNDP, 2004, RED DIS RISK CHALL D *UNEP, 1998, UN ENV PROGR I ENV S *UNEP, 2001, ASS HUM VULN ENV CHA *UNFCCC, 2002, CONTR 8 C PART UN FR ADGER WN, 2003, PROGR DEV STUDIES, V3, P179 ADGER WN, 2005, CR GEOSCI, V337, P399 AYSAN Y, 1993, NATURAL DISASTERS PR BERKES F, 1998, LINKING SOCIAL ECOLO, V1, P1 BLAIKIE PM, 1994, RISK NATURAL HAZARDS, V1, P1 BOHLE HG, 2001, IHDP UPDATE, V2, P3 BOHLE HG, 1994, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V4, P37 CANNON T, 2000, FLOODS, V1, P45 CARNEY D, 1998, DFIDS NAT RES ADV C CARPENTER SR, 2001, ECOSYSTEMS, V4, P765 CASH DW, 2001, SCI TECHNOL HUM VAL, V26, P431 CHAMBERS R, 1987, SEASONAL DIMENSIONS CHAMBERS R, 1989, IDS B, V20, P1 CHAMBERS R, 1992, 296 IDS DEVEREUX S, 2003, FORUM FOOD SECURITY DEVEREUX S, 2004, IDS BULL-I DEV STUD, V35, P22 DLAMINI DJM, 2004, 1155104 WRC DOWNING TE, 2003, 3 APF UN DEV PROGR DOWNING TE, 2004, 10 SESS C PART UN FR DUBE LT, 2003, WATER SA, V29, P208 FISCHER G, 2002, CLIMATE CHANGE AGR V FUSSEL HM, 2005, IN PRESS CLIMATIC CH, P1 GILHAM SW, 1997, 23 WEDC C DURB S AFR, P415 GIROT P, 2002, UNDP EXP GROUP M INT HILHORST D, 2004, VULNERABILITY DISAST, P1 HUQ S, 2004, IDS BULL-I DEV STUD, V35, P15 JOUBERT A, 1997, J CLIMATOL, V17, P291 KASPERSON RE, 2001, CLIMATE VARIABILITY KASPERSON RE, 2001, INT WORKSH VULN GLOB KELLY PM, 1999, 9907 GEC U E ANGL CT KELLY PM, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V47, P325 LEGAL P, 2003, DEP AGR 28 JUL 2003 LEICHENKO RM, 2002, MITIGATION ADAPTATIO, V7, P1 MANO R, 2003, IDENTIFYING POLICY D OBRIEN KL, 2003, COPING CLIMATE VARIA OBRIEN KL, 2000, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V10, P221 PELLING M, 2005, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V15, P308 PIELKE RA, 1998, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V8, P159 POLSKY C, 2003, ASSESSING VULNERABIL REID P, 2005, CLIMATE CHANGE WATER, P395 SCHULZE R, 2005, 1430005 RSA WRC SCOONES I, 2000, 72 IDS SCOONES I, 2004, IDS B, V3, P114 WALKER BH, 2002, CONSERV ECOL, V6, P1 WATTS MJ, 1993, PROG HUM GEOG, V17, P43 WISNER B, 1993, GEOJOURNAL, V30, P127 WISNER B, 1995, GEOJOURNAL, V37, P335 WISNER B, 2004, VULNERABILITY DISAST, P183 YOUNG OR, 2002, I DIMENSIONS ENV CHA NR 60 TC 1 J9 GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANGE BP 195 EP 206 PY 2006 PD MAY VL 16 IS 2 GA 051NM UT ISI:000238167800008 ER PT J AU Harrison, GP Wallace, AR TI Climate sensitivity of marine energy SO RENEWABLE ENERGY LA English DT Article C1 Univ Edinburgh, Sch Engn & Elect, Edinburgh EH9 3JL, Midlothian, Scotland. RP Harrison, GP, Univ Edinburgh, Sch Engn & Elect, Mayfield Rd, Edinburgh EH9 3JL, Midlothian, Scotland. AB Marine energy has a significant role to play in lowering carbon emissions within the energy sector. Paradoxically, it may be susceptible to changes in climate that will result from rising carbon emissions. Wind patterns are expected to change and this will alter wave regimes. Despite a lack of definite proof of a link to global warming, wind and wave conditions have been changing over the past few decades. Changes in the wind and wave climate will affect offshore wind and wave energy conversion: where the resource is constrained, production and economic performance may suffer; alternatively, stormier climates may create survival issues. Here, a relatively simple sensitivity study is used to quantify how changes in mean wind speed-as a proxy for wider climate change-influence wind and wave energy production and economics. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *DEP TRADS IDN, 2002, REN OBL 2002 *GRAND HASS PARTN, 2001, SCOTL REN RES *HLTH SAF EX, 2001, WIND WAV FREQ DISTR *VEST WIND SYST A, 2004, V9030 MW PROD BROCH BACON S, 1991, INT J CLIMATOL, V11, P545 BACON S, 1993, INT J CLIMATOL, V13, P423 BAKER RW, 1990, SOL ENERGY, V45, P285 BRESLOW PB, 2002, RENEW ENERG, V27, P585 CARTER DJT, 1988, NATURE, V332, P494 GREVEMEYER I, 2000, NATURE, V408, P349 GUNTHER H, 1998, GLOBAL ATMOS OCEAN S, V6, P121 HARRISON GP, 2002, IEE P-GENER TRANSM D, V149, P249 HULME M, 2002, CLIMATE CHANGE SCENA JEFFREY DC, 1978, 4 YEAR REPORT EDINBU MANWELL JF, 2002, WIND ENERGY EXPLAINE MOLLISON D, 1976, NATURE, V263, P223 MOLLISON D, 1986, HYDRODYNAMICS OCEAN, P133 PIERSON WJ, 1964, J GEOPHYS RES, V69, P5181 POWER PB, 2004, COST GENERATING ELEC SALTER SH, 2003, COMMUNICATION SEGAL M, 2001, RENEW ENERG, V24, P235 SWAIL VR, 2000, 6 INT WORKSH WAV HIN THORPE TW, 1999, ETSUR120 DEP TRAD IN WANG XLL, 2004, J CLIMATE, V17, P2368 WATSON GM, 2001, PREDICTING OFFSHORE WOOLF DK, 2002, J GEOPHYS RES, V109, P3145 YOUNG IR, 1996, ATLAS OCEANS WIND WA NR 27 TC 1 J9 RENEWABLE ENERGY BP 1801 EP 1817 PY 2005 PD OCT VL 30 IS 12 GA 946DV UT ISI:000230553400002 ER PT J AU CHURCHILL, RR HUTCHINSON, DM TI FLOOD HAZARD IN RATNAPURA, SRI-LANKA - INDIVIDUAL ATTITUDES VS COLLECTIVE ACTION SO GEOFORUM LA English DT Article RP CHURCHILL, RR, MIDDLEBURY COLL,DEPT GEOG,MIDDLEBURY,VT 05753. CR 1978, FERGUSONS CEYLON DIR *S L DEP CENS STAT, 1972, 1971 CENS POP *S L RATN TOWN GOV, 1979, FLOOD DAM ADAMS RLA, 1973, ECON GEOGR, V49, P287 BEYER JL, 1974, NATURAL HAZARDS LOCA, P265 BURTON I, 1964, NAT RESOUR J, V3, P412 BURTON I, 1970, 16 U TOR NAT HAZ RES BURTON I, 1978, ENV HAZARD, V1, P1 DWORKIN J, 1974, 26 U COL NAT HAZ RES HAAS JE, 1977, RECONSTRUCTION FOLLO HARDING DM, 1974, NATURAL HAZARDS LOCA, P43 HEWAPATHIRANE DU, 1978, THESIS U COLORADO BO ISLAM MA, 1971, 18 U TOR NAT HAZ RES KATES RW, 1962, 78 U CHIC DEP GEOGR KATES RW, 1963, PAPERS P REGIONAL SC, V11, P217 KATES RW, 1967, ENV PERCEPTION BEHAV, P60 KATES RW, 1970, INT SOCIAL SCI J, V22, P648 KATES RW, 1975, LANDSCAPE ARCHIT APR, P165 KIRKBY AV, 1974, NATURAL HAZARDS LOCA, P119 LACHMAN R, 1960, SCIENCE, V131, P1095 MCPHERSON HJ, 1977, ANN REGIONAL SCI, V11, P25 MITCHELL JK, 1974, PERSPECTIVES ENV, P290 MOLINE NT, 1974, NATURAL HAZARDS LOCA, P52 PAYNE RJ, 1981, ENVIRON BEHAV, V13, P461 RAMACHANDRAN R, 1974, NATURAL HAZARDS LOCA, P36 SAARINEN TF, 1976, ENV PERCEPTION PLANN SHAH BV, 1983, DISASTERS, V7, P202 SIMON JL, 1978, BASIC RES METHODS SO SONNENFELD J, 1969, P ASS AM GEOGR, V1, P136 THOMPSON SA, 1982, 45 U COL NAT HAZ RES TUAN YF, 1974, TOPOPHILIA STUDY ENV WHITE GF, 1961, T AM SOC CIVIL ENG, V126, P63 WHITE GF, 1964, 93 U CHIC DEP GEOGR WHITE GF, 1974, NATURAL HAZARDS LOCA, P3 NR 34 TC 2 J9 GEOFORUM BP 517 EP 524 PY 1984 VL 15 IS 4 GA TY244 UT ISI:A1984TY24400002 ER PT J AU Bohle, HG Adhikari, J TI Rural livelihoods at risk how nepalese farmers cope with food insecurity SO MOUNTAIN RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT LA English DT Article C1 S Asia Inst, Heidelberg, Germany. RP Bohle, HG, S Asia Inst, Heidelberg, Germany. AB Since the early 1990s, Nepal has changed from a net exporter to a net importer of food. Nearly half of Nepal's districts have become deficient in food. The situation is most serious for peripheral mountain regions of the Middle Hills. The paper concentrates on food deficient village communities in fragile mountain tracts of Nepal. It is based on household surveys in six peripheral mountain villages. More than fifty percent of all households are not even self-sufficient in food for six months in a year. The project then focuses on the coping strategies of the mountain farmers which aim at bridging this gap in food supply The analysis reveals highly diverse, complex, and innovative strategies which require high degrees of mobility and activity. There is a general tendency that these strategies are increasingly oriented towards markets. It becomes clear that the growing tendency towards external linkages offers new potentialities, but, at the same time, new risks for the mountain population. The project therefore examines the major determinants which make specific coping strategies more or less successful. In addition to caste and ethnicity, household structures (including work participation patterns, gender composition, age structure, and health status) emerge as most decisive factors. Despite all efforts, the majority of the mountain population, nevertheless, is severely undernourished. For an increasing proportion of the village people, survival has becomes a permanent crisis. CR *ACT AID NEP, 1994, UNPUB RUR LIV SURV *CENTR BUR STAT, 1995, STAT YB NEP 1995 *IDRC, 1990, UNPUB SOILS SED ER F *MS SWAM RES FDN, 1992, ANN REP MS SWAM RES *NAT PLANN COMM, 1993, OUTL POV ALL POL PRO, P1 *NEP AGR PERSP, 1995, UNPUB NEP AGR PERSP *UNDP, 1997, HUM DEV REP UNDP ADHIKARI J, 1995, BEGINNINGS AGRARIAN BLAIKIE PM, 1994, RISK NATURAL HAZARDS, V1, P1 CAMERON J, 1995, UNPUB FOOD SECURITY CHAMBERS R, 1989, IDS B, V20, P1 DAHL SL, 1993, UNPUB INDIAN GEOGRAP, V68, P21 GURUGHARANA KK, 1995, EC J NEPAL, V18, P1 GURUGHARANA KK, 1995, NAT SEM DEV STRAT NE KOIRALA G, 1992, UNPUB NAT SEM POV AL PYAKURYAL KN, 1995, NEPALESE FARMING SYS PYAKURYAL KN, 1995, POVERTY NEPAL BACKGR PYAKURYAL KN, 1995, UNPUB NEPALESE FARMI SERALGEDIN I, 1996, SUSTAINABILITY WEALT SWIFT J, 1989, IDS B, V20, P8 WATTS MJ, 1993, PROG HUM GEOG, V17, P43 NR 21 TC 3 J9 MT RES DEV BP 321 EP 332 PY 1998 PD NOV VL 18 IS 4 GA 142MN UT ISI:000077204400003 ER PT J AU Lobell, DB Bala, G Duffy, PB TI Biogeophysical impacts of cropland management changes on climate SO GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS LA English DT Article C1 Lawrence Livermore Natl Lab, Energy & Environm Directorate, Livermore, CA 94550 USA. RP Lobell, DB, Lawrence Livermore Natl Lab, Energy & Environm Directorate, 7000 East Ave,L-638, Livermore, CA 94550 USA. AB It is well known that expansion of agriculture into natural ecosystems can have important climatic consequences, but changes occurring within existing croplands also have the potential to effect local and global climate. To better understand the impacts of cropland management practices, we used the NCAR CAM3 general circulation model coupled to a slab-ocean model to simulate climate change under extreme scenarios of irrigation, tillage, and crop productivity. Compared to a control scenario, increases in irrigation and leaf area index and reductions in tillage all have a physical cooling effect by causing increases in planetary albedo. The cooling is most pronounced for irrigation, with simulated local cooling up to similar to 8 degrees C and global land surface cooling of 1.3 degrees C. Increases in soil albedo through reduced tillage are found to have a global cooling effect ( similar to 0.2 degrees C) comparable to the biogeochemical cooling from reported carbon sequestration potentials. By identifying the impacts of extreme scenarios at local and global scales, this study effectively shows the importance of considering different aspects of crop management in the development of climate models, analysis of observed climate trends, and design of policy intended to mitigate climate change. CR MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 ABROL IP, 2005, CONSERVATION AGR STA ADEGOKE JO, 2003, MON WEATHER REV, V131, P556 ANDALES AA, 2000, AGR SYST, V66, P69 BETTS RA, 2001, ATMOS SCI LETT, V2, P39 BONAN GB, 1997, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V37, P449 BONAN GB, 2002, GLOBAL BIOGEOCHEM CY, V16 BOUCHER O, 2004, CLIM DYNAM, V22, P597 BROVKIN V, 1999, GLOBAL ECOL BIOGEOGR, V8, P509 CHASE TN, 2001, J GEOPHYS RES-ATMOS, V106, P31685 COLLINS WD, 2004, NCARTN464STR COOLEY HS, 2005, J GEOPHYS RES-ATMOS, V110 DEFRIES RS, 2002, GLOBAL CHANGE BIOL, V8, P438 DERIDDER K, 1998, J APPL METEOROL, V37, P1470 DIRMEYER PA, 2005, 192 COLA NASA GODD S FEDDEMA JJ, 2005, SCIENCE, V310, P1674 GIBBARD S, 2005, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V32 GOVINDASAMY B, 2001, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V28, P291 GREGORY PJ, 2002, AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON, V88, P279 KOSTER RD, 2004, SCIENCE, V305, P1138 LAL R, 2004, SCIENCE, V304, P1623 LOVELAND TR, 2000, INT J REMOTE SENS, V21, P1303 MAHMOOD R, 2004, INT J CLIMATOL, V24, P311 MAIERREIMER E, 1987, CLIM DYNAM, V2, P63 MATTHEWS HD, 2003, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V30 MATTHIAS AD, 2000, SOIL SCI SOC AM J, V64, P1035 MEYER WB, 1992, ANNU REV ECOL SYST, V23, P39 MYHRE G, 2003, J CLIMATE, V16, P1511 OLESON K, 2004, NCARTN461STR PIELKE RA, 2001, REV GEOPHYS, V39, P151 SITCH S, 2005, GLOBAL BIOGEOCHEM CY, V19 TIAN Y, 2004, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V31 NR 32 TC 2 J9 GEOPHYS RES LETT PY 2006 PD MAR 23 VL 33 IS 6 GA 026NE UT ISI:000236344900008 ER PT J AU Cash, DW TI Innovative natural resource management: Nebraska's model for linking science and decisionmaking SO ENVIRONMENT LA English DT Article C1 Harvard Univ, John F Kennedy Sch Govt, Ctr Int Dev, Cambridge, MA 02138 USA. Harvard Univ, John F Kennedy Sch Govt, Belfer Ctr Sci & Int Affairs, Cambridge, MA 02138 USA. RP Cash, DW, Harvard Univ, John F Kennedy Sch Govt, Ctr Int Dev, Cambridge, MA 02138 USA. CR *NAT RES COUNC COM, 1996, COLL AGR LAND GRANT *NB DEP RES, 2000, NEBR RES DEV FUND BI *SOC LEARN GROUP, 2001, LEARN MAN GLOB ENV R *WORLD BANK, 1999, WORLD DEV REP 1999 2 BELLON MR, 2001, PARTICIPATORY RES ME BERKES F, 1998, LINKING SOCIAL ECOLO, V1, P1 CASH DW, 2001, SCI TECHNOL HUM VAL, V26, P431 CASH DW, 2003, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V100, P8086 FOLKE C, 1998, PROBLEM FIT ECOSYSTE GIERYN TF, 1995, HDB SCI TECHNOLOGY S GUSTON DH, 1996, SCI PUBLIC POLICY, V24 JASANOFF SS, 1987, SOC STUD SCI, V17, P195 JENKINS HM, 1975, HIST NEBRASKAS NATUR KASPERSON JX, 1995, REGIONS RISK, V1, P1 KATES RW, ICSU SERIES SCI SUST, V9 KATES RW, 2001, SCIENCE, V292, P641 KROMM DE, 1992, GROUNDWATER EXPLOITA MCGUIRE VL, 1997, WATER LEVEL CHANGES MCGUIRE VL, 2000, WATER LEVEL CHANGES MITCHELL R, IN PRESS GLOBAL ENV OPIE J, 2000, OGALLALA WATER DRY L STAR SL, 1989, SOC STUD SCI, V19, P387 TURNER BL, 2003, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V100, P8074 NR 23 TC 0 J9 ENVIRONMENT BP 8 EP 20 PY 2003 PD DEC VL 45 IS 10 GA 749MP UT ISI:000186924800003 ER PT J AU Potschin, MB Haines-Young, RH TI Landscapes and sustainability SO LANDSCAPE AND URBAN PLANNING LA English DT Editorial Material C1 Univ Nottingham, Sch Geog, Ctr Environm Management, Nottingham NG7 2RD, England. RP Potschin, MB, Univ Nottingham, Sch Geog, Ctr Environm Management, Univ Pk, Nottingham NG7 2RD, England. CR ANTROP M, 2006, LANDSCAPE URBAN PLAN, V75, P187 BAILEY N, 2006, LANDSCAPE URBAN PLAN, V75, P227 BLASCHKE T, 2006, LANDSCAPE URBAN PLAN, V75, P198 BRUNCKHORST D, 2006, LANDSCAPE URBAN PLAN, V75, P265 COSGROVE D, 2002, HDB CULTURAL GEOGRAP, P249 CROW T, 2006, LANDSCAPE URBAN PLAN, V75, P282 DEGROOT R, 2006, LANDSCAPE URBAN PLAN, V75, P175 DEGROOT RS, 2002, ECOL ECON, V43, P393 FORMAN RTT, 1995, LAND MOSAICS ECOLOGY GALLOPIN GC, 2001, INT SOC SCI J, V53, P219 HAINESYOUNG R, 2000, FENNIA, V178, P7 HAINESYOUNG R, 2006, LANDSCAPE URBAN PLAN, V75, P244 KATES RW, 2000, 200033 BELF CTR SCI KATES RW, 2001, SCIENCE, V292, P641 KAYHKO N, 2006, LANDSCAPE URBAN PLAN, V75, P300 OPDAM P, 2006, LANDSCAPE URBAN PLAN, V75, P322 POTSCHIN M, 2006, LANDSCAPE URBAN PLAN, V75, P162 SWANWICK C, 2004, COUNTRYSIDE PLANNING, P109 TRESS B, 2001, LANDSCAPE URBAN PLAN, V57, P137 TRESS B, 2005, LANDSCAPENRES LANDSC NR 20 TC 1 J9 LANDSCAPE URBAN PLAN BP 155 EP 161 PY 2006 PD MAR 15 VL 75 IS 3-4 GA 014NX UT ISI:000235488000001 ER PT J AU Turner, MD TI Merging local and regional analyses of land-use change: The case of livestock in the Sahel SO ANNALS OF THE ASSOCIATION OF AMERICAN GEOGRAPHERS LA English DT Review C1 Int Livestock Res Ctr, Niamey, Niger. RP Turner, MD, Int Livestock Res Ctr, Niamey, Niger. AB This paper argues against the dichotomization of "regional" and "local" analyses of land-use change by environmental geographers. Such dichotomization has led regional analyses to unnecessarily exclude from consideration ecological, sociocultural, and political factors identified to be important in local studies, Simple rules of evidence that systematically label such factors as "locally specific" facilitate such exclusion. For example, gender relations in rural Africa, while shown in local studies to play an important role in land-use change, are often excluded from consideration in regional analyses. This study analyzes the causes behind the regionwide shift toward small stock (sheep and goats) in the Sahel, using demographic and transaction histories (1984-1994) of livestock owned by members of fifty-four households in western Niger. Changes in the composition of this livestock population replicate that observed across the region in direction and magnitude. An analysis of these data demonstrates that the shift in species composition is not driven by changes in price or livestock productivity. While species preferences of individual owners (controlled by wealth) have not changed over the period, the distribution of livestock ownership has changed, with smallholders and women controlling a larger fraction of aggregate livestock wealth. The gendered shift in livestock wealth is closely associated with struggles between men and women over their relative obligations to support the family. Women's situation within the household has led some to accumulate large herds of small stock. Key features of intrahousehold struggles contributing to the shift in livestock composition in Niger are common across the Sudano-Sahelian region. The broader implications of these findings for the analysis of regional changes in land use are discussed. 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1985, 9 LPU INT LIV CTR AF TOULMIN C, 1992, CATTLE WOMEN WELLS M TURNER BL, 1990, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V1, P14 TURNER BL, 1997, ECUMENE, V4, P196 TURNER M, 1993, ECON GEOGR, V69, P402 VANKEULEN H, 1990, AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON, V32, P177 VERMEER DE, 1981, GEOGR REV, V71, P281 VOH AA, 1989, ANIM REPROD SCI, V19, P191 WAGENAAR KT, 1986, 13 INT LIV CTR AFR WATTS MJ, 1983, INTERPRETATIONS CALA, P231 WATTS MJ, 1983, SILENT VIOLENCE FOOD WHITE C, 1990, PROPERTY POVERTY PEO, P240 WHITE F, 1983, VEGETATION AFRICA WHITEHEAD A, 1990, POLITICAL EC HUNGER, P427 WILLIAMS M, 1994, J HIST GEOGR, V20, P3 WILLIAMS TO, 1994, AGR SYST, V46, P227 WILLIAMS TO, 1995, LIVESTOCK SUSTAINABL, P393 WILSON RT, 1986, 14 ILCA INT LIV CTR WILSON RT, 1989, ANIM REPROD SCI, V20, P265 ZIMMERER K, 1996, CONCEPTS HUMAN GEOGR, P161 NR 119 TC 14 J9 ANN ASSN AMER GEOGR BP 191 EP 219 PY 1999 PD JUN VL 89 IS 2 GA 199MM UT ISI:000080486000001 ER PT J AU Steinberg, PE TI Political geography and the environment SO JOURNAL OF GEOGRAPHY LA English DT Article RP Steinberg, PE, BUCKNELL UNIV,DEPT GEOG,LEWISBURG,PA 17837. AB A new political geography has emerged that stresses the political conflict behind the production of space. This orientation in the subdiscipline constitutes a turn away from traditional political geography, where the emphasis had previously been on the spatial distribution of political phenomena. The ''new'' political geographic theory has been applied to the study of environmental issues, turning the attention of scholars to the political struggle behind the construction of nature as well as space. This article reviews how the new political geography of the environment (NPGE) perspective has impacted the study of such environmental phenomena as hazards, siting issues, human-land relationships, resources, development, and international environmental governance. It concludes by suggesting how the NPGE perspective can inform pedagogy in environmental education. CR *ED BOARD, 1982, POLTICAL GEOGRAPHY Q, V1, P1 ARDREY R, 1966, TERRITORIAL IMPERATI BLAIKIE PM, 1985, POLITICAL EC SOIL ER BRYANT RL, 1992, POLIT GEOGR, V11, P12 FITZSIMMONS M, 1989, ANTIPODE, V21, P106 GLASSNER M, 1991, POLITICAL GEOGRAPHY, V10, P422 HAAS P, 1993, I EARTH SOURCES EFFE HARVEY D, 1982, LIMITS CAPITAL HEIMAN MK, 1996, ANTIPODE, V28, P111 HEWITT K, 1983, INTERPRETATIONS CALA JACKSON WAD, 1964, POLITICS GEOGRAPHIC KUEHLS T, 1996, SOVEREIGN TERRITORY LEFEBVRE H, 1991, PRODUCTION SPACE MANZONI M, 1996, POLITICAL GEOGRAPHY, V15, P359 MURPHY C, 1994, INT ORG IND CHANGE G PEET R, 1985, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V75, P309 PEET R, 1996, LIBERATION ECOLOGIES PULIDO L, 1996, ENV EC JUSTICE 2 CHI ROBLES A, 1995, GLOB GOV, V1, P99 SACK R, 1986, HUMAN TERRITORIALITY SAUER C, 1981, SELECTED ESSAYS 1963, P78 SMITH K, 1992, ENV HAZARDS ASSESSIN SMITH N, 1984, UNEVEN DEV NATURE CA SOJA E, 1980, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V70, P207 SOJA EW, 1985, ENVIRON PLANN D, V3, P175 STEINBERG P, 1996, CRYSTAL PARK URBAN E STEINBERG P, 1997, SPACE TRANSPORT WORL SUSSKIND L, 1987, BREAKING IMPASSE CON TAYLOR P, 1996, ECON GEOGR, V72, P87 TAYLOR PJ, 1982, T I BRIT GEOGR, V7, P15 WHITE GF, 1975, ASSESSMENT RES NATUR, V1, P1 YOUNG O, 1989, INTERNATIONAL COOPER YOUNG O, 1996, GLOBAL ENV CHANGE IN ZACHER M, 1996, GOVERNING GLOBAL NET NR 34 TC 2 J9 J GEOGR BP 113 EP 118 PY 1997 PD MAR-APR VL 96 IS 2 GA WT414 UT ISI:A1997WT41400010 ER PT J AU KUMMER, DM TURNER, BL TI THE HUMAN CAUSES OF DEFORESTATION IN SOUTHEAST-ASIA SO BIOSCIENCE LA English DT Article C1 CLARK UNIV,GRAD SCH GEOG,WORCESTER,MA 01610. RP KUMMER, DM, GEORGE PERKINS MARSH INST,WORCESTER,MA 01610. CR 1959, RAW MATERIALS RESOUR, V1 1985, 50 YEAR DEV PROGRAM 1986, AGENDA ACTION PHILIP 1988, MAPPING NATURAL COND 1988, NATURAL FOREST RESOU 1989, PHILIPPINES ENV NATU 1993, WORLD POPULATION DAT ALLEN JC, 1985, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V75, P163 BEE OJ, 1990, SINGAPORE J TROP GEO, V11, P117 BILSBORROW RE, 1992, AMBIO, V21, P37 BLAIKIE PM, 1987, LAND DEGRADATION SOC BONITA M, 1977, POPULATION RESOURCES, V2 BROOKFIELD HF, 1990, EARTH TRANSFORMED HU, P496 BRUCE RC, 1977, SAVE OUR FORESTS LIV BYRON N, 1988, ASIAN PACIFIC EC LIT, V2, P46 CALLAHAM R, 1981, SOME PERSPECTIVES FO COLLINS M, 1991, CONSERVATION ATLAS T DAROESMAN R, 1979, B INDONES ECON STUD, V15, P43 FEENY D, 1984, 458 YAL U EC GROWTH FLINT EP, 1991, CAN J FOREST RES, V21, P91 GILLIS M, 1988, PEOPLE TROPICAL RAIN, P177 GRAINGER A, 1987, 1987 LAND RES EV NAT HICKS GL, 1971, TRADE GROWTH PHILIPP HIRSCH P, 1987, SINGAPORE J TROP GEO, V8, P129 HIRSCH P, 1994, SINGAPORE J TROP GEO, V44, P305 HOUGHTON RA, 1994, BIOSCIENCE, V44, P305 KASPERSON JX, 1995, REGIONS RISK, V1, P1 KUMMER DM, 1992, DEFORESTATION POSTWA LACHOWSKI HM, 1979, PHOTOGRAMMETRIC ENG, V45, P1387 MEYER WB, 1992, ANNU REV ECOL SYST, V23, P39 MEYER WB, 1994, GLOBAL LAND USE LAND MYERS N, 1992, PRIMARY SOURCE PANAYOTOU T, 1989, ECONOMETRIC STUDY CA PORTER G, 1988, RESOURCES POPULATION POTTER L, 1994, REGIONS RISK COMP TH REPETTO R, 1988, FOREST TREES GOVT PO REVILLA AV, 1983, POLICIES STRATEGIES SKOLE D, 1993, SCIENCE, V260, P1905 STERN P, 1992, GLOBAL ENV CHANGE UN TURNER BL, 1990, EARTH TRANSFORMED HU TURNER BL, 1991, INT SOC SCI J, V130, P669 TURNER BL, 1993, RELATING LAND USE GL WEIDELT H, 1982, ASPECTS MANAGEMENT S WILLIAMS M, 1990, EARTH TRANSFORMED HU NR 44 TC 34 J9 BIOSCIENCE BP 323 EP 328 PY 1994 PD MAY VL 44 IS 5 GA NG925 UT ISI:A1994NG92500006 ER PT J AU Ahmad, QK TI Towards poverty alleviation: The water sector perspectives SO INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF WATER RESOURCES DEVELOPMENT LA English DT Article C1 Bangladesh Unnayan Parishad, Dhaka 1212, Bangladesh. RP Ahmad, QK, Bangladesh Unnayan Parishad, Plot 50,Block D,Gulshan 1, Dhaka 1212, Bangladesh. AB Given the context of diminishing water availability as a result of water pollution and inadequate development of water resources on the supply side and. increasing population and expanding economic activity on the demand side, this paper reviews water-poverty interfaces and suggests ways of contributing to poverty alleviation through water sector interventions. The unequal distribution of the available water within communities and among various water users in the same country and across countries is discussed as a key issue in this context. The paper examines the causes of poverty with particular reference to the pattern of access to water supply as well as to water for various economic activities. It also considers water-related disasters such as flood, cyclone and riverbank erosion and their adverse human and natural consequences. Water deprivation is seen as both a state and a process-the former being the situation prevailing at a particular point of time and the later implying how that state has been reached and how may it evolve in future. The paper argues that the water crisis is primarily one of management, given the persisting traditional-sectorally focused and fragmented-approach. The appropriate alternative, it is argued, is integrated water resource management (IWRM), which is holistic in approach and focuses on the various uses of water and different categories of its users. It suggests ways of moving forward in terms of improved and participatory water development and management, which can contribute significantly to poverty alleviation. The second part of the paper highlights the National Water Policy of Bangladesh as a case study. The policy, adopted in 1999, broadly encompasses the various elements of IWRM. It enunciates principles and directions for water planning and utilization towards fulfilling the national goals of economic development, poverty alleviation, food security, public health and safety, decent standard of living of the people and protection of the natural environment. The policy has adopted a holistic approach and provided guidelines for participatory water management. The paper points out that a Bangladesh National Water Management Plan has been drafted within the framework of the National Water Policy with a view to improving water development and management so as to address human, economic and environmental needs of water, with special emphasis on the water needs of the poorer segments of society. CR 2001, BONN INT C FRESW 3 7 *GLOB WAT PARTN, 2000, WAT SEC FRAM ACT MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 *MIN WAT RES, 1999, NAT WAT POL *MIN WAT RES, 2000, GUID PART WAT MAN *UNDP, 2002, HUM DEV REP 2002 *WAT RES PLANN ORG, 2001, DRAFT NAT WAT MAN PL *WORLD WAT COMM, 2000, WAT SEC WORLD VIS WA AHMAD QK, 2000, BANGLADESH WATER VIS AHMAD QK, 2001, GANGES BRAHMAPUTRA M MOHAMMED A, 2002, S AS WAT CLIM TASK F STAMOULIS KG, 2001, FOOD AGR RURAL DEV C NR 12 TC 0 J9 INT J WATER RESOUR DEV BP 263 EP 277 PY 2003 PD JUN VL 19 IS 2 GA 696PA UT ISI:000183894200014 ER PT J AU Abel, N Cumming, DHM Anderies, JM TI Collapse and reorganization in social-ecological systems: Questions, some ideas, and policy implications SO ECOLOGY AND SOCIETY LA English DT Article C1 Arizona State Univ, Tempe, AZ 85287 USA. AB We tested the explanatory usefulness and policy relevance of Holling's (2001) "adaptive cycle" theory in exploring processes of "collapse," also called " release," and recovery in regional social-ecological systems (SESs) in Zimbabwe and Australia. We found that the adaptive cycle is useful in recognizing changes in system behavior during the various phases. However, our small sample of cases did not generally show either the sequential passage of stages or the prerelease decline in resilience that adaptive cycle theory implies. In all cases, however, the reasons for releases were apparent with hindsight. On the other hand, our examples mostly supported the proposition that resilience is controlled by slowly changing variables. Although we found the adaptive cycle, and complex system theory in general, to be useful integrating frameworks, disciplinary theories are required to explain causes and effects in specific cases. We used theories linking distribution of political power to institutional change; to investment in natural, human, social, and physical capitals; and to access to financial capital. We explored patterns of change of these capitals before, during, and after release and reorganization. Both the patterns of change and relative importance of the different capitals during reorganization varied widely, but the importation of resources from broader scales was often a key to recovery. We propose that the resilience of most regional or national SESs can be explained in these terms. The capacity to self-organize emerged from our studies as a critical source of resilience. Although rebuilding this capacity at times requires access to external resources, excessive subsidization can reduce the capacity to self-organize. The policy implication is that cross-scale subsidization should end when self-organization becomes apparent, because subsidization can increase the vulnerability of the system as a whole. When the aim is to recover without changing the system fundamentally, the focus should be upon conserving or investing in the elements of capital critical for this. If the current system is not viable, it is necessary to invest in forms of capital that will enable fundamental change. It will also be necessary to stop investing in the capitals that maintained the unviable regime. The political difficulty of doing this is why SESs so often remain maladapted to current conditions and opportunities and eventually reach the point of collapse. 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RP Tuyet, D, Res Inst Geol & Mineral Resources, Hanoi, Vietnam. AB Karst in Vietnam covers an area of about 60,000 km(2), i.e. 18 % of the surface of the country. The country has an annual average temperature of 24 degreesC, an annual average rainfall of 2300 nun and a relative humidity of about 90%. Karst in Vietnam is typified by peak cluster-depression landscapes ranging in elevation from 200 to over 2000 m. Tower and coastal karst landscapes also exit. Because of naturally favourable conditions, karst ecosystems are diverse and very rich. Higher plants(cormophytes) are abundant. They are represented by approximately 2000 species, 908 genera, 224 families, 86 orders and 7 phyla. They form a thick vegetation cover of evergreen tropical rainforest. Knowledge about lower plants is limited. The fauna is rich and diverse. Phyla such as Protozoa, Vermes, Mollusca and Arthropoda are yet ill known. Preliminary results show that the phylum Chordata is represented by 541 species from 80 families, 40 orders and 5 classes. There exist many precious and rare mammals, in particular some endemic species such as Trachypithecus poliocephalus, T. delacouri, Rhinopithecus avanculus, Rhinolophus rouxi, Seotoma dineties and Silurus cuephuongensis. The class Insecta has about 2000 species. The fast population growth, particularly in the mountainous areas of the country, triggers an increasing demand for land and therefore threatens the ecosystem. To obtain land for farming, people have cut, burned and destroyed natural forest cover; resulting in occurrence of hazards such as soil-loss, water-loss, flash floods, mud-rock flows, rock-falls, severe drought, water logging and changes of karstic aquifers etc. Poaching precious animals and illegal logging are increasing. In contrast to other natural systems, karst ecosystems cannot be reestablished once damaged. Living karst landscapes will become rocky desert ones without life. Conservation of karstic environmental systems in general and karstic ecosystems in particular should not be the sole vocation of scientists but also a duty and responsibility of authorities and people from all levels. A good example of a multidisciplinary approach to karst-related problems is the implementation of the Vietnamese-Belgian Karst Project (VBEKAP): "Rural development in the mountain karst area of NW Vietnam by sustainable water and land management and social learning: its conditions and facilitation". The aim of this project is to improve living conditions of local people and sustained protection and management of the karst environment and ecosystem. CR *FAUN FLOR INT IND, 2000, PROJ DOC CONS PU LUO, P127 *MIN FOR, 1995, VIETN FOR, P70 KHOI LV, 1994, STUDIES SETTING BUFF, P135 MAXWELL O, 2000, PROJECT PROPOSAL CON, P95 QUY V, 1996, CUC PHUONG NATL PARK, P58 YEN MD, 1993, STUDYING WORKS TROPI, P95 NR 6 TC 0 J9 ACTA GEOL SIN-ENGL ED BP 325 EP 329 PY 2001 PD SEP VL 75 IS 3 GA 468TB UT ISI:000170773300015 ER PT J AU Wadley, RL Mertz, O Christensen, AE TI Local land use strategies in a globalizing world - Managing social and environmental dynamics SO LAND DEGRADATION & DEVELOPMENT LA English DT Editorial Material C1 Univ Missouri, Dept Anthropol, Columbia, MO 65211 USA. Univ Copenhagen, Inst Geog, DK-1350 Copenhagen, Denmark. RP Wadley, RL, Univ Missouri, Dept Anthropol, 107 Swallow Hall, Columbia, MO 65211 USA. AB This special issue deals with local rural people's economic, social and cultural responses to external and internal pressures generated by processes of global and regional change. The contributions deal with issues of resource-base degradation and stable land management, with special emphases on market integration and increased vulnerability of natural resources and local livelihoods in Lao DPR; land-use change in a Malaysian swidden system under varied patterns of migration and off-farm labour; occupational multiplicity and agricultural specialization in the Philippines; land degradation and environmental perceptions in peri-urban Nigeria; food security, gendered labour and shifting cultural-economic values in Uganda; and the rehabilitation of environment and social institutions through neo-localism in Thailand. All of the articles were originally presented at an International Conference in Copenhagen, Denmark in 2003, under the auspices of the Danish University Consortium on Environment and Development-Sustainable Land Use and Natural Resource Management (DUCED SLUSE). Copyright (c) 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. CR BINGHAM D, 2002, GLOBALIZATION DEV CO BRADY NC, 1996, AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON, V58, P3 BURGERS P, 2005, AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON, V110, P1 CASSON A, 2002, WORLD DEV, V30, P2133 CURTIS F, 2003, ECOL ECON, V46, P83 DAHLBERG A, 1994, 6 NORD AFR DOVE MR, 1996, BORNEO TRANSITION PE, P41 EDER JF, 1999, GENERATION LATER HOU FOLEY JA, 2005, SCIENCE, V309, P570 GEIST HJ, 2001, LUCC REPORT SERIES, V4 JABBAR M, 1996, OUTLOOK AGR, V25, P27 KEARNEY M, 1995, ANNU REV ANTHROPOL, V24, P547 KOCZBERSKI G, 2005, AGR SYST, V85, P324 LAMBIN EF, 2001, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V11, P261 MORTIMORE MJ, 2005, GEOGRAFISK TIDSSKRIF, V105, P101 RASMUSSEN K, 2001, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V11, P271 RIGG J, 2001, MORE SOIL RURAL CHAN SCOONES I, 1997, SUSTAINING SOIL INDI, P1 WADLEY RL, 2005, AGR SYST, V85, P289 WEYERHAEUSER H, 2005, AGR SYST, V85, P234 YOUNG A, 1998, LAND RESOURCES NOW F NR 21 TC 0 J9 LAND DEGRAD DEV BP 117 EP 121 PY 2006 PD MAR-APR VL 17 IS 2 GA 034LO UT ISI:000236930700001 ER PT J AU Hudgens, D TI Adapting the National Flood Insurance Program to relative sea level rise SO COASTAL MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article C1 Univ Massachusetts, Environm Coastal & Ocean Sci Dept, Boston, MA 02125 USA. RP Hudgens, D, Univ Massachusetts, Environm Coastal & Ocean Sci Dept, 100 Morrissey Blvd, Boston, MA 02125 USA. AB Congress created the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) to provide much-needed flood insurance to property owners and to decrease the nation's susceptibility to flooding. Relative sea level rise now poses a threat to the nation's flood preparedness, with coastal property owners facing increasingly severe flooding. The Federal Emergency Management Agency could address this vulnerability through several different approaches. By recalculating and extending the 100-year floodplains to incorporate estimates of relative sea level rise, the program would prepare coastal property owners for the near-future flood risks Further adaptation approaches to improve the NFIP include requiring floodproofing, obtaining "rolling easements," and conducting education campaigns. CR *FED EM MAN AG, 1998, NAT MIT STRAT INTR *INT PAN CLIM CHAN, 1996, CLIM CHANG 1995 IMP *INT PAN CLIM CHAN, 1996, CLIM CHANG 1995 SCI *NAT FLOOD INS PRO, 1998, REP ARCH POL CLAIM S *SWISS RE, 1996, CLIM CHANG INS IND S *US ARM CORPS ENG, 1998, FLOODPR TECHN PROGR, CH1 BROECKER WS, 1997, SCIENCE, V278, P1582 CLINE WR, 1992, EC GLOBAL WARMING ESTERS SD, 1997, NATL UNDERWRITER PRO, V101, P4 KATZ RW, 1992, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V21, P289 LEONARD K, 1997, BANK NEWS, V97, P14 MANN ME, 1998, NATURE, V392, P779 NICHOLLS RJ, 1996, COAST MANAGE, V24, P301 PIELKE RA, 1998, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V8, P159 SCHNEIDER D, 1997, SCI AM, V276, P112 SIMS JH, 1983, ENVIRON BEHAV, V15, P165 TITUS JG, 1991, COAST MANAGE, V19, P171 TITUS JG, 1998, MARYLAND LAW REV, V57, P1279 WITT JL, 1998, REDUCING FLOOD LOSSE NR 19 TC 0 J9 COAST MANAGE BP 367 EP 375 PY 1999 PD OCT-DEC VL 27 IS 4 GA 246DB UT ISI:000083147600006 ER PT J AU Batterbury, S Forsyth, T Thomson, K TI Environmental transformations in developing countries: hybrid research and democratic policy SO GEOGRAPHICAL JOURNAL LA English DT Article C1 UNIV LONDON LONDON SCH ECON & POLIT SCI,INST DEV STUDIES,LONDON WC2A 2AE,ENGLAND. INT INST ENVIRONM & DEV,LONDON WC1H 0DD,ENGLAND. RP Batterbury, S, BRUNEL UNIV,DEPT GEOG & EARTH SCI,UXBRIDGE UB8 3PH,MIDDX,ENGLAND. AB This paper introduces a special edition of The Geographical Journal on the theme of 'environmental transformations in developing countries'. Geographical research into human-environment relations is well established. However. many recent studies of political ecology or constructivist approaches to environment either overlook biophysical aspects of environmental change, or uncritically accept 'orthodox' explanations of physical degradation without appreciating the social and political construction of such models. This paper, and those following, attempt iu outline ways in which environmental research may remain sensitive to political and cultural debates, vet also give insights to practical environmental management of biophysical resources 'externally real' to human experience. It is argued that understanding human impacts on environment may only be achieved through long-term environmental histories compiled using locally-based 'hybrid' social and physical research methods; plus an awareness of the social and political construction of environmental 'orthodoxies' by powerful domestic and global agendas. As such, 'transformations' may be viewed as both physical changes in factors such as land cover or health hazards: but also as the socio-economic transitions in the driving forces of environmental degradation and perceptions of risk which in turn fuel new orthodoxies in research and policy. 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RP Benitez, PC, Univ Victoria, Dept Econ, POB 1700 STN CSC, Victoria, BC V8W 2Y2, Canada. AB we have provided a framework for identifying least-cost sites for afforestation and reforestation and deriving carbon sequestration cost curves at a global level in a scenario of limited information. Special attention is given to country risk in developing countries and the sensitivity to spatial datasets. Our model results suggest that within 20 years and considering a carbon price of US$50/tC, tree-planting activities could offset 1 year of global carbon emissions in the energy sector. However, if we account for country risk considerations-associated with political, economic and financial risks-carbon sequestration is reduced by approximately 60%. With respect to the geography of supply, illustrated by grid-scale maps, we find that most least-cost sites are located in regions of developing countries such as the Sub-Sahara, Southeast Brazil and Southeast Asia. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. 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RP Demeritt, D, Univ London Kings Coll, Dept Geog, Strand, London WC2R 2LS, England. AB Having outlined a theory of heterogeneous social construction, this article describes the scientific construction of climate change as a global-scale environmental problem caused by the universal physical properties of greenhouse gases. Critics have noted that this reductionist formulation serves a variety of political purposes, but instrumental and interest-based critiques of the use of scientific knowledge tend to ignore the ways in which a politics gets built into science at the upstream end. By retracing the history of climate modeling and of several scientific controversies, I unmask the tacit social and epistemic commitments implied by its specific practices. The specific scientific framing of global climate change has reinforced and been reinforced by the technocratic inclinations of global climate management. 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SCI CONTEXT, V12, P275 WOOD RA, 1999, NATURE, V399, P572 WOOLGAR S, 1988, SCI VERY IDEA YEARLEY S, 1996, SOCIOLOGY ENV GLOBAL YOUNG O, 1994, INT GOVERNANCE PROTE ZEHR SC, 1994, SCI STUD, V1, P47 NR 235 TC 21 J9 ANN ASSN AMER GEOGR BP 307 EP 337 PY 2001 PD JUN VL 91 IS 2 GA 451XP UT ISI:000169828100005 ER PT J AU Chen, M Pollard, D Barron, EJ TI Regional climate change in East Asia simulated by an interactive atmosphere-soil vegetation model SO JOURNAL OF CLIMATE LA English DT Article C1 Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Atmospher Phys, Beijing 100029, Peoples R China. Penn State Univ, EMS Environm Inst, University Pk, PA 16802 USA. RP Chen, M, Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Atmospher Phys, Beijing 100029, Peoples R China. AB A regional coupled soil-vegetation-atmosphere model is used to study changes and interactions between climate and the ecosystem in East Asia due to increased atmospheric CO2. The largest simulated climate changes are due to the radiative influence of CO2, modified slightly by vegetation feedbacks. Annual precipitation increases by about 20% in coastal areas of northern China and in central China, but only by 8% in southern China. The strongest warming of up to 4degreesC occurs in summer in northern China. Generally, the climate tends to be warmer and wetter under doubled CO2 except for inland areas of northern China, where it becomes warmer and drier. Most of the changes discussed in this paper are associated with changes in the East Asian monsoon, which is intensified under doubled CO2. The largest changes and feedbacks between vegetation and climate occur in northern China. In some coastal and central areas around 40degreesN, temperate deciduous forests expand northward, replacing grassland due to warmer and wetter climate. Evergreen taiga retreats in the coastal northeast, causing extra cooling feedback due to less snow masking. The largest changes occur in extensive inland regions northward of 40degreesN, where deserts and shrub land expand due to warmer and drier conditions, and water supply is a critical factor for vegetation. These northern inland ecosystems experience considerable degradation and desertification, indicating a marked sensitivity and vulnerability to climatic change. 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CSIC, Cid, ES-08034 Barcelona, Spain. RP Sunyer, J, Univ Pompeu Fabra, Unitat Rec Resp Ambiental, IMIM, Barcelona, Spain. CR *WHO, 2002, WORLDS HLTH REP 2002 ARNELL NW, 2002, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V53, P413 EPSTEIN PR, 1998, B AM METEOROL SOC, V79, P409 EPSTEIN PR, 2005, NEW ENGL J MED, V353, P1433 GOUVEIA N, 2003, INT J EPIDEMIOL, V32, P241 HASSOL SJ, 2004, IMPACTS WARMING ARCT HAY SI, 2002, NATURE, V415, P905 HOLSTEIN J, 2005, J PUBLIC HEALTH, V27, P359 HOPP MJ, 2003, CLIMATE RES, V25, P85 KEARNEY MS, 2002, EOS T AM GEOPHYS UN, V83, P173 KLINENBERG E, 2003, HEAT WAVE SOCIAL AUT KOSATSKY T, 2005, EURO SURVEILL, V10, P148 LUTERBACHER J, 2004, SCIENCE, V303, P1499 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 MCMICHAEL AJ, 2001, P NUTR SOC, V60, P195 MCMICHAEL AJ, 2004, COMP QUANTIFICATION, P1543 MICHELOZZI P, 2004, MMWR-MORBID MORTAL W, V53, P369 PATZ JA, 2005, NATURE, V438, P310 ROGERS DJ, 2000, SCIENCE, V289, P1763 SCHAR C, 2004, NATURE, V427, P332 TANSER FC, 2003, LANCET, V362, P1792 WEBSTER PJ, 2005, SCIENCE, V309, P1844 NR 22 TC 1 J9 INT J EPIDEMIOL BP 213 EP 216 PY 2006 PD APR VL 35 IS 2 GA 033AI UT ISI:000236817900002 ER PT J AU Xu, JC Fox, J Vogler, JB Zhang, PF Fu, YS Yang, LX Jie, Q Leisz, S TI Land-use and land-cover change and farmer vulnerability in Xishuangbanna prefecture in southwestern China SO ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article C1 East West Ctr, Honolulu, HI 96848 USA. Chinese Acad Sci, Kunming Inst Bot, Kunming, Peoples R China. Yunnan Univ, Kunming 650091, Peoples R China. Ctr Agr Res & Ecol Studies, Hanoi, Vietnam. Univ Copenhagen, Inst Geog, Copenhagen, Denmark. RP Fox, J, East West Ctr, 1601 EW Rd, Honolulu, HI 96848 USA. AB This study investigated land-use and land-cover change in three hamlets and two state rubber farms in the Nan-e watershed of the Xishuangbanna prefecture of Yunnan province in Southwestern China. The overall objective of the study was to understand how state policies affected land-use and land-cover and how changes in these variables affected farmer vulnerability to economic, social, and political events. Emphasis was placed on the cultivation of rubber (Hevea brasiliensis), promoted in southern Yunnan province since the 1950s as a means to meet the demands of rapid economic development. The study combined remote sensing analysis with secondary data and in-field interviews in order to understand the coupling between land-use and land-cover change and farmer vulnerability in light of the geographic, historical, and sociopolitical situation. CR BARHAM BL, 1999, UNASYLVA, V50, P34 BILSBORROW RE, 1992, AMBIO, V21, P7 BOYCE JK, 2001, NEW SOLUTIONS, V11, P267 CHAPMAN EC, 1991, GEOGR J, V157, P34 CHASE TN, 2000, CLIM DYNAM, V16, P93 CHEO R, 2000, EVALUATION IMPACT RU COWARD WCE, 2002, TAI POLITICS UPLANDS FENG YZ, 1982, ACTA BOT, V24, P22 GORE C, 1993, J DEV STUD, V29, P429 GUAN K, 1998, HIGHLAND FLOWERS YUN HOUGHTON RA, 1999, SCIENCE, V285, P574 JIANG QN, 2003, YUNNAN TROPICAL SCI, V25, P34 KASPERSON JX, 1995, REGIONS RISK, V1, P1 LAMBIN EF, 2001, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V11, P261 LEACH M, 1999, WORLD DEV, V27, P225 MA Y, 1989, INT S MAN MAD COMM T, P27 OSMANI SR, 1995, CHOICE WELFARE DEV, P324 PEI SJ, 1991, ETHICS RELIG BIODIVE, P118 RIBOT JC, 1995, GEOJOURNAL, V35, P119 RIBOT JC, 2001, INT J AGR RESOURCES, V1, P327 SALA OE, 2000, SCIENCE, V287, P1770 SEN AK, 1981, POVERTY FAMINES ESSA, V1, P1 SWIFT J, 1989, IDS B, V20, P8 TURNER BL, 1995, 7 HDP VERBURG PH, 1999, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V9, P303 VITOUSEK PM, 1997, SCIENCE, V277, P494 WU ZL, 2001, INT J SUST DEV WORLD, V8, P337 XU J, 2002, INDIGENOUS STRATEGIE, P201 XU JC, 1999, MT RES DEV, V19, P123 YAN L, 1992, XISHUANGBANNA NATURE NR 30 TC 2 J9 ENVIRON MANAGE BP 404 EP 413 PY 2005 PD SEP VL 36 IS 3 GA 965OC UT ISI:000231959000006 ER PT J AU Folke, C TI Freshwater for resilience: a shift in thinking SO PHILOSOPHICAL TRANSACTIONS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY OF LONDON SERIES B-BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES LA English DT Article C1 Stockholm Univ, Dept Syst Ecol, SE-10691 Stockholm, Sweden. RP Folke, C, Stockholm Univ, Dept Syst Ecol, SE-10691 Stockholm, Sweden. AB Humanity shapes freshwater flows and biosphere dynamics from a local to a global scale. Successful management of target resources in the short term tends to alienate the social and economic development process from its ultimate dependence on the life-supporting environment. Freshwater becomes transformed into a resource for optimal management in development, neglecting the multiple functions of freshwater in dynamic landscapes and its fundamental role as the bloodstream of the biosphere. The current tension of these differences in worldview is exemplified through the recent development of modern aquaculture contrasted with examples of catchment-based stewardship of freshwater flows in dynamic landscapes. In particular, the social and institutional dimension of catchment management is highlighted and features of social-ecological systems for resilience building are presented. It is concluded that this broader view of freshwater provides the foundation for hydrosolidarity. 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AB This paper explores how professionals' universal, reductionist and standardized views of poverty differ from those of the poor themselves. Poverty line thinking concerned with income-poverty and employment thinking concerned with jobs, project Northern concerns on the South, where the realities of the poor are local, diverse, often complex and dynamic. Examples illustrate how poor people's criteria differ from those assumed for them by professionals. The paper also discusses neglected dimensions of deprivation including vulnerability, seasonality, powerlessness and humilation. In the new understandings of poverty, wealth as an objective is replaced by wellbeing and ''employment'' in jobs by livelihood. The final sections argue for altruism and reversals to enable poor people to analyze and articulate their own needs, and they conclude with the implications for policy and practice of putting first the priorities of the poor. 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CR 1992, WORLD RESOURCES 1992 1992, WORLD SCI WARNING HU BERRY L, 1990, ORNLCON299 TECH REP BILSBORROW RE, 1987, WORLD DEV, V15, P183 BODEN TA, 1990, TRENDS 90 COMPENDIUM BURTON I, 1978, ENV HAZARD, V1, P1 COALE AJ, 1970, SCIENCE, V170, P132 COMMONER B, 1972, CLOSING CIRCLE NATUR COSTANZA R, 1991, ECOLOGICAL EC SCI MA CROPPER ML, 1992, J ECON LIT, V30, P675 DILLMAN DA, 1983, J ECON PSYCHOL, V3, P299 DUNLAP RE, 1991, PUBLIC OPIN QUART, V55, P713 EHRLICH PR, 1971, SCIENCE, V171, P1212 EHRLICH PR, 1990, POPULATION EXPLOSION FISCHHOFF B, 1989, IMPROVING RISK COMMU, P211 HEBERLEIN TA, 1985, APR INT C CONS BEH E HIRST E, 1986, ENERGY EFFICIENCY BU HIRST E, 1987, DOEBP1128718 PAC POW HOLDREN JP, 1974, AM SCIENT, V62, P282 KEMPTON W, IN PRESS ANN REV ENE KEYFITZ N, 1991, POPUL INDEX, V57, P5 KREBILLPRATHER RL, 1992, AUG M AM SOC ASS PIT LUTZENHISER L, IN PRESS ANN REV ENE MILETI DS, IN PRESS HDB ENV SOC MILLER RD, 1985, SHARED SAVINGS RESID MOORMAW WR, 1991, STATE ENV MOORNAW WR, 1993, FEB M AM ASS ADV SCI OLSEN ME, 1992, ADV HUMAN ECOLOGY, P197 OSTROM E, 1990, GOVERNING COMMUNICAT RIDKER RG, 1972, POPULATION RESOURCES RIDKER RG, 1972, SCIENCE, V176, P1085 RUDEL TK, 1989, RURAL SOCIOL, V54, P327 SCHNAIBERG A, 1980, ENV SURPLUS SCARCITY SCHWENGELS P, 1990, ENERGY EFFICIENCY EN SIMON J, 1986, POPULATION GROWTH EC SIMON JL, 1981, ULTIMATE RESOURCE STERN PC, 1984, ENERGY USE HUMAN DIM STERN PC, 1986, EVALUATION REV, V10, P147 STERN PC, 1992, AM PSYCHOL, V47, P1224 STERN PC, 1992, GLOBAL ENV CHANGE UN TURNER BL, 1990, EARTH TRANSFORMED HU VINE E, 1988, LBL25525 TECH REP, V1 NR 42 TC 15 J9 SCIENCE BP 1897 EP 1899 PY 1993 PD JUN 25 VL 260 IS 5116 GA LJ349 UT ISI:A1993LJ34900028 ER PT J AU Baro, M Deubel, TF TI Persistent hunger: Perspectives on vulnerability, famine, and food security in Sub-Saharan African SO ANNUAL REVIEW OF ANTHROPOLOGY LA English DT Article C1 Univ Arizona, Dept Anthropol, Tucson, AZ 85721 USA. Univ Arizona, Bur Appl Res Anthropol, Tucson, AZ 85721 USA. RP Baro, M, Univ Arizona, Dept Anthropol, Tucson, AZ 85721 USA. AB This review examines the persistence of chronic hunger in Sub-rights reserved Saharan Africa in the twenty-first century and reviews dominant famine theories, concepts of vulnerability, and household livelihood security and responses to recent food crises in the region. The authors argue that famine occurrences are linked to historical and contemporary socioeconomic processes that have increased over time the vulnerability of African households to hunger and reduced their resilience to environmental and economic shocks, political conflict, and the rapid spread of HIV/AIDS. Approaches to famine need to move away from the "emergency relief" framework to better address the underlying conditions that make food shortages endemic. Future food security for Africa requires an integrated long-term response to household vulnerability on the. part of African governments, civil society, and international partners by incorporating new technologies, local expertise, and active involvement of African communities living with the realities of recurrent famine. 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RP Ford, JD, Univ Guelph, Dept Geog, Guelph, ON N1G 2W1, Canada. AB This paper develops a vulnerability-based approach to characterize the human implications of climate change in Arctic Bay, Canada. It focuses on community vulnerabilities associated with resource harvesting and the processes through which people adapt to them in the context of livelihood assets, constraints, and outside influences. Inuit in Arctic Bay have demonstrated significant adaptability in the face of changing climate-related exposures. This adaptability is facilitated by traditional Inuit knowledge, strong social networks, flexibility in seasonal hunting cycles, some modern technologies, and economic support. Changing Inuit livelihoods, however, have undermined certain aspects of adaptive capacity, and have resulted in emerging vulnerabilities in certain sections of the community. (C) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 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P184 WATTS MJ, 1993, PROG HUM GEOG, V17, P43 WENZEL G, 1991, ANIMAL RIGHTS HUMAN WENZEL G, 2001, INUIT STUDIES, V25, P37 WILKINSON D, 1955, LAND LONG DAY WOOLCOCK M, 2000, WORLD BANK RES OBSER, V15, P225 NR 132 TC 1 J9 GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANGE BP 145 EP 160 PY 2006 PD MAY VL 16 IS 2 GA 051NM UT ISI:000238167800004 ER PT J AU Mirza, MMQ TI Climate change and extreme weather events: can developing countries adapt? SO CLIMATE POLICY LA English DT Article C1 Univ Toronto, Inst Environm Studies, AIRG, Toronto, ON M5S 3E8, Canada. RP Mirza, MMQ, Univ Toronto, Inst Environm Studies, AIRG, 33 Willcocks St, Toronto, ON M5S 3E8, Canada. AB Developing countries are vulnerable to extremes of normal climatic variability, and climate change is likely to increase the frequency and magnitude of some extreme weather events and disasters. Adaptation to climate change is dependent on current adaptive capacity and the development models that are being pursued by developing countries. Various frameworks are available for vulnerability and adaptation (V&A) assessments, and they have both advantages and limitations. Investments in developing countries are more focused on recovery from a disaster than on the creation of adaptive capacity. Extreme climatic events create a spiral of debt burden on developing countries. Increased capacity to manage extreme weather events can reduce the magnitude of economic, social and human damage and eventually, investments, in terms of borrowing money from the lending agencies. Vulnerability to extreme weather events, disaster management and adaptation must be part of long-term sustainable development planning in developing countries. Lending agencies and donors need to reform their investment policies in developing countries to focus more on capacity building instead of just investing in recovery operations and infrastructure development. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *CRED, 2000, CURR PRACT MEAS IMP *GOO, 2000, NAT OUR STAT *IDB, 1999, OP 704 NAT UN DIS *IFRC RCS, 2001, WORLD DIS REP FOC RE *IFRC RCS, 2002, WORLD DIS REP 2002 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 *IPCC, 2001, CLIM CHANG 2001 *MUN REINS, 1999, CLIM CHANG INCR LOSS *OCAA, 1998, REC NAC HOND *SWISS REINS CO, 1998, FLOODS INS RISK *SWISS REINS CO, 2000, NAT CAT MAN MAD DIS *UK MED OFF, 1999, IND CYCL FACT SHEET *UNDP, 1998, STAT GOV EXP TRENDS *UNDP, 2001, EL AD POL FRAM TECHN *UNFCCC, 2002, GUID CLIM CHANG CONV *WORLD BANK, 1999, WORLD BANK DEV IND *WORLD BANK, 2000, WORLD DEV REP 2000 2, P161 *WSWS, 2001, MOZ FLOOD DIS RET AHMED AU, 2000, PERSPECTIVES FLOOD 1, P67 ALBALABERTRAND JM, 1993, POLITICAL EC LARGE N, P259 ANDERSON MB, 1990, 29 WORLD BANK BENIOFF R, 1996, VULNERABILITY ADAPTA BENSON C, 2000, DISASTER RISK MANAGE, V2 BURTON I, 1999, COME HELL HIGH WATER CARTER TR, 1994, IPCC TECHNICAL GUIDE DYSON LL, 2001, S AFR J SCI, V97, P80 FEENSTRA J, 1998, HDB METHODS CLIMATE FREEMAN PK, 2001, ANN BANK C DEV EC EU FREEMAN PK, 2001, INFRASTRUCTURE NATUR KHUDA ZRM, 2000, PERSPECTIVES FLOOD 1, P31 KRINER S, 2000, 3 MONTHS SUPER CYCLO MIRZA MMQ, 2001, ENV HAZARDS, V3, P37 PAGE DL, 2000, FLOODS PREDICTABLE D ROBINSON A, 1999, SUPER CYCLONE EXPOSE SHOOK G, 1997, DISASTERS, V21, P77 SMITHERS JC, 2001, WATER SA, V27, P25 VAZ AC, 2000, INT C MOZ FLOODS MAP WARRICK RA, 2000, J ENV DEV, V7, P43 NR 38 TC 0 J9 CLIM POLICY BP 233 EP 248 PY 2003 PD SEP VL 3 IS 3 GA 734DG UT ISI:000186039500005 ER PT J AU Ivey, JL Smithers, J De Loe, RC Kreutzwiser, RD TI Community capacity for adaptation to climate-induced water shortages: Linking institutional complexity and local actors SO ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article C1 Univ Guelph, Dept Geog, Guelph, ON N1G 2W1, Canada. RP Smithers, J, Univ Guelph, Dept Geog, Guelph, ON N1G 2W1, Canada. AB There is growing concern for the capacity of urban and rural communities to manage current water shortages and to prepare for shortages that may accompany predicted changes in climate. In this paper, concepts relating to the notion of climate adaptation and particularly "capacity building" are used to elucidate several determinants of community-level capacity for water management. These concepts and criteria are then used to interpret empirically derived insights relating to local management of water shortages in Ontario, Canada. General determinants of water-related community capacity relate to upper tier political and institutional arrangements; the characteristics of, and relationships among, pertinent agencies, groups, or individuals involved in water management; and the adequacy of financial, human, information, and technical resources. The case analysis illustrates how general factors play out in local experience. The findings point to geographically specific factors that influence the effectiveness of management. Key factors include collaboration between water managers, clarification of agency roles and responsibilities, integration of water management and land-use planning, and recognition and participation of both urban and rural stakeholders, whose sensitivities to water shortages are spatially and temporally variable. CR *CRED VALL CONS, 1997, UNPUB CAL CREEK CRED *CRED VALL CONS, 1998, UNPUB W CRED SUBW ST *CRED VALL CONS, 1999, UNPUB WAT US WORKSH *INT PAN CLIM CHAN, 2001, CLIM CHANG 2001 SYNT *KPMG LLP CHART AC, 2000, FIN STAT CRED VALL C *ONT MIN ENV, 2001, OP CLEAN WAT MUN GRO *ONT MIN MUN AFF H, 1996, MUN FIN INF 1994 QUE *ONT MIN NAT RES, 2001, ONT LOW WAT RESP *PLANN ENG IN LTD, 1999, UNPUB CAL COMM RES S *REIC CONS LTD, 1998, UNPUB TOWN OR WAT EF *TOWN ORG PUB WORK, 2000, UNPUB 1999 MUN WELL ADGER WN, 1999, WORLD DEV, V27, P249 BISWAS AK, 1996, WATER RESOURCES DEV, V12, P399 BURTON I, 1996, ADAPTING CLIMATE CHA, P55 BURTON I, 1998, HDB METHODS CLIMATE CHANG YM, 2001, CREATING SUSTAINABLE, P176 COHEN JM, 1995, INT REV ADM SCI, V61, P407 DELOE R, 2001, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V11, P231 DELOE RC, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P163 DELOE RC, 2002, ENVIRON MANAGE, V29, P217 ETKIN D, 1998, CANADA COUNTRY STUDY, V8, P31 FURUSETH O, 1995, J ENV PLANNING MANAG, V38, P181 GABRIEL AO, 1993, CANADIAN WATER RESOU, V18, P117 GARGAN JJ, 1981, PUBLIC ADMIN REV, V41, P649 GRIGG NS, 1993, J WATER RES PL-ASCE, V119, P531 GRINDLE MS, 1995, PUBLIC ADMIN DEVELOP, V15, P441 HAMDY A, 1998, WATER INT, V23, P126 HOLMES PR, 1996, WATER RESOURES DEV, V12, P461 JOHNSTON RJ, 2000, DICT HUMAN GEOGRAPHY, P976 KELLY PM, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V47, P325 KRAJNC A, 2000, CAN PUBLIC POL, V26, P111 LAVENDER B, 1998, BINATIONAL GREAK LAK, P99 LORENZONI I, 2000, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V10, P145 MERRY DJ, 1995, WATER RESOURCES DEV, V11, P11 MITCHELL B, 1989, APPL GEOGR, V9, P196 MOLOT L, 2001, LIQUID ASSETS MONITO MORTSCH L, 2000, CANADIAN WATER RESOU, V25, P153 MORTSCH LD, 1996, LIMNOL OCEANOGR, V41, P903 NUTTLE WK, 1993, ADAPTATION CLIMATE C OCONNOR DR, 2002, REPORT WALKERTON I 1, P188 SHANAGHAN PE, 1998, J AM WATER WORKS ASS, V90, P51 SHAW DT, 1992, J AM WATER WORKS ASS, V84, P34 SMIT B, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, P876 SMITH JB, 1996, CLIMATE RES, V6, P193 SMITHERS J, 1997, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V7, P129 STRZEPEK KM, 1998, HDB METHODS CLIMATE SUBAK S, 2000, WATER RESOUR MANAG, V14, P137 TOMAN MA, 1996, ADAPTING CLIMATE CHA, P5 WALKER S, 1995, MODELING MANAGEMENT, P107 WEILAND PS, 1998, PUB ADM Q, V22, P176 WHEATEN E, 1999, MITIGATION ADAPTATIO, V4, P215 WILHITE DA, 1996, NAT HAZARDS, V13, P229 WOO CK, 1992, WATER RESOUR RES, V28, P2591 WOO V, 1982, J AM WATER WORKS ASS, V74, P126 NR 54 TC 0 J9 ENVIRON MANAGE BP 36 EP 47 PY 2004 PD JAN VL 33 IS 1 GA 808OJ UT ISI:000220578100004 ER PT J AU Fazey, I Fazey, JA Salisbury, JG Lindenmayer, DB Dovers, S TI The nature and role of experiential knowledge for environmental conservation SO ENVIRONMENTAL CONSERVATION LA English DT Article C1 Univ Wales, Inst Rural Sci, Aberystwyth SY23 3AL, Dyfed, Wales. Univ Wales, Sch Educ, Res Inst Enhancing Learning, Bangor LL57 2PX, Gwynedd, Wales. Biotext, Yarralumla, ACT 2600, Australia. Australian Natl Univ, Ctr Resource & Environm Studies, Canberra, ACT 0200, Australia. RP Fazey, I, Univ Wales, Inst Rural Sci, Aberystwyth SY23 3AL, Dyfed, Wales. AB Understanding the nature and role of experiential knowledge for environmental conservation is a necessary step towards understanding if it should be used and how it might be applied with other types of knowledge in an evidence-based approach. This paper describes the nature of experiential and expert knowledge. It then discusses the role of experiential knowledge as a complement to scientific knowledge and explains the interplay between experiential knowledge with conservation research and practice using a simple conceptual model of how individuals learn. There are five main conclusions: (1) because experiential knowledge will always play a role in decision-making, enhancing ability to learn from experiences (including research) will have a significant influence on the effectiveness of conservation outcomes; (2) while experiential knowledge is qualitatively very different from quantitative information, both are important and complementary; (3) some experiential knowledge can be expressed quantitatively, but experiential knowledge can be difficult to isolate as single facts or propositions and qualitative methods will therefore often be required to elicit experiential knowledge; (4) because each person's expertise is unique, when using experiential knowledge the extent of a person's experience and its relevance to a particular problem need to be specified; and (5) as with any form of knowledge, there are limitations to that derived from personal experience. Synthesis and communication of research is therefore essential to help prevent erroneous thinking and, where possible, experiential knowledge should be used in conjunction with other types of information to guide conservation actions. 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Univ Calif Berkeley, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Berkeley, CA 94720 USA. Cent Valley Reg Water Qual Control Board, Sacramento, CA 95827 USA. RP Quinn, NWT, Univ Calif Berkeley, Inst Environm Sci & Engn, Lawrence Berkeley Lab, 412 OBrien Hall,Bld 70A-3317F,1 Cyclotron Rd, Berkeley, CA 94720 USA. AB This collaborative research project has two main objectives: to assess the vulnerability of water supply, water demand, water quality, ecosystem health and socioeconomic welfare within the San Joaquin River Basin as a function of climate variability and extreme weather events; and to provide guidance in the formulation of effective management strategies to mitigate the range of potential impacts due to climate variability and extreme weather. The project involves updating and advancing previous studies on climate change in California. Climate data are based on new Global Circulation Model output from the statistical downscaling that converts GCM climate forecasts into local weather forecasts. The project applies these climate data to perturb an existing 72-year historical hydrologic time series of the San Joaquin Basin to develop an integrated impacts analysis of climate change/variability on the water, economic and social resources of the Basin. Previous studies focused only on water resource impacts. A decision support system (DSS) is under development that will provide assistance to CALFED (a joint California State and Federal program designed to resolve water issues in the Bay-Delta) in water resource and ecosystem management of the San Joaquin Basin. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. AR rights reserved. CR BEVEN KJ, 1979, HYDROL SCI B, V24, P43 DRACUP JA, 1993, ESTIMATION MONTHLY A, CH2 GLEICK PH, 1989, REV GEOPHYSICS, V27 HOWITT RE, 1995, J AGR ECON, V46, P147 KIM J, 1995, J GEOPHYS RES-ATMOSP, V100, P20845 KIM J, 1996, REGIONAL IMPACTS GLO, P73 KIM J, 1998, J CLIMATE, V11, P2376 KIM J, 2000, IN PRESS J GEOPHYS R LEAVESLEY GH, 1983, 834238 US GEOL SURV, P207 LEAVESLEY GH, 1996, USERS MANUAL LETTENMAIER DP, 1989, EPA2300589051 US EPA LETTENMAIER DP, 1990, WATER RESOUR RES, V26, P69 MILLER N, 1997, MISSION EARTH MODELI, P55 MILLER NL, 1996, 23 WMO CAS JSC TDO, P734 MILLER NL, 1996, B AM METEOROL SOC, V77, P101 MILLER NL, 1999, J AM WATER RESOUR AS, V35, P1525 MILLERNL, 2000, IN PRESS J METEOROL PECK EL, 1973, HYDRO31 NOAA NWS NR 18 TC 2 J9 ADV ENVIRON RES BP 309 EP 317 PY 2001 PD NOV VL 5 IS 4 GA 482VF UT ISI:000171597400002 ER PT J AU Bryant, CR Smit, B Brklacich, M Johnston, TR Smithers, J Chiotti, QP Singh, B TI Adaptation in Canadian agriculture to climatic variability and change SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 Univ Montreal, Montreal, PQ H3C 3J7, Canada. Univ Guelph, Guelph, ON N1G 2W1, Canada. Carleton Univ, Ottawa, ON K1S 5B6, Canada. Univ Lethbridge, Lethbridge, AB T1K 3M4, Canada. Univ Toronto, Inst Environm Studies, Toronto, ON M5S 3E8, Canada. RP Bryant, CR, Univ Montreal, CP 6128,Succursale Ctr Ville, Montreal, PQ H3C 3J7, Canada. AB The effects of climatic variability and change on Canadian agriculture have become an important research field since the early 1980s. In this paper, we seek to synthesize this research, focusing on agricultural adaptation, a purposeful proactive or reactive response to changes associated with climate, and influenced by many factors. A distinctive feature of methods used in research on adaptation in Canadian agriculture is the focus on the important role of human agency. Many individual farmers perceive they are well adapted to climate, because of their extensive 'technological' tool-kit, giving them confidence in dealing with climatic change. In many regions, little concern is expressed over climatic change, except where there are particular types of climatic vulnerability. Farmers respond to biophysical factors, including climate, as they interact with a complex of human factors. Several of these, notably institutional and political ones, have tended to diminish the farm-level risks stemming from climatic variability and change, but may well increase the long term vulnerability of Canadian agriculture. Notwithstanding the technological and management adaptation measures available to producers, Canadian agriculture remains vulnerable to climatic variability and to climate change. 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RP Bene, C, Univ Portsmouth, CEMARE, Portsmouth PO1 2UP, Hants, England. AB In this paper, we first look retrospectively at the perceptions embraced by academics, international agencies and practitioners of the relation between fisheries and poverty in developing countries and we try to identify the underlying paradigms which have structured these perceptions. The review reveals how the debate has focused on the economic (low income) and biological (overexploitation) aspects of the problem. We then revisit these perceptions in the light of the recent conclusions drawn from other sectors and in particular from the new "consensus" on poverty proposed by the international community. Incorporation of the recent research on poverty helps to show how socio-institutional mechanisms governing people's access to fisheries resources-rather than the resources themselves-play such a critical role in vulnerability to poverty. Finally, a typology identifying four different categories of intrasectoral exclusion mechanisms is developed and illustrated through empirical studies derived from African and Asian fisheries. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. 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1979, 2 ICLARM STUDIES REV STEEDMAN D, 1985, SMALL SCALE FISHERIE, P9 SWIFT J, 1989, IDS B, V20, P8 SWIFT P, 1997, DEV RES FRAMEWORK FI THOMAS DHL, 1996, HUM ECOL, V24, P287 THOMPSON PM, 1998, INLAND FISHERY ENHAN, P351 TOUFIQUE K, 1997, WORLD DEV, V25, P457 TOWNSLEY P, 1998, SUSTAINABLE RURAL LI, P139 VANZALINGE N, 1998, CROSSING BOUNDARIES VEDELD T, 1998, LAW MANAGEMENT RENEW VEDELD T, 2000, J DEV STUD, V36, P105 WAHYONO U, 1993, FAO JAPAN EXPERT CON, V1, P243 WATTS MJ, 1993, PROG HUM GEOG, V17, P43 WELCOMME RL, 1998, FISHERIES MANAGEMENT, V5, P351 WRIGHT CS, 1990, P BIENN C INT I FISH ZERNER C, 1993, FAO JAPAN EXPERT CON, V1, P127 NR 119 TC 1 J9 WORLD DEVELOP BP 949 EP 975 PY 2003 PD JUN VL 31 IS 6 GA 684WR UT ISI:000183229900002 ER PT J AU Hall, JW Sayers, PB Walkden, MJA Panzeri, I TI Impacts of climate change on coastal flood risk in England and Wales: 2030-2100 SO PHILOSOPHICAL TRANSACTIONS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY A-MATHEMATICAL PHYSICAL AND ENGINEERING SCIENCES LA English DT Article C1 Univ Newcastle Upon Tyne, Sch Civil Engn & Geosci, Newcastle Upon Tyne NE1 7RU, Tyne & Wear, England. HR Wallingford, Wallingford OX10 8BA, Oxon, England. RP Hall, JW, Univ Newcastle Upon Tyne, Sch Civil Engn & Geosci, Cassie Bldg, Newcastle Upon Tyne NE1 7RU, Tyne & Wear, England. AB Coastal flood risk is a function of the probability of coastal flooding and the consequential damage. Scenarios of potential changes in coastal flood risk due to changes in climate, society and the economy over the twenty-first century have been analysed using a national-scale quantified flood risk analysis methodology. If it is assumed that there will be no adaptation to increasing coastal flood risk, the expected annual damage in England and Wales due to coastal flooding is predicted to increase from the current 0.5 pound billion to between 1.0 pound and 13.5 pound billion, depending on the scenario of climate and socio-economic change. The proportion of national flood risk that is attributable to coastal flooding is projected to increase from roughly 50% to between 60 and 70%. Scenarios of adaptation to increasing risk, by construction of coastal dikes or retreat from coastal floodplains, are analysed. These adaptations are shown to be able to reduce coastal flood risk to between 0.2 pound and MS billion. The capital cost of the associated coastal engineering works is estimated to be between 12 pound and 40 pound billion. Nonstructural measures to reduce risk can make a major contribution to reducing the cost and environmental impact of engineering measures. CR *DTI, 2002, DTI PUB *EUR COMM DIR GEN, EUR 2004 LIV COAST E *HALCR GROUP LTD, NAT APPR ASS RISK FL *IPCC, 2000, SPEC REP EM SCEN SRE *SPRU CSERGE CRU, 1999, SOC EC FUT CLIM IMP *UK CLIM IMP PROGR, 2000, SOC EC SCEN CLIM CHA ARNELL NW, 2004, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V14, P3 BACON S, 1991, INT J CLIMATOL, V11, P545 BACON S, 1993, INT J CLIMATOL, V13, P423 BURGESS K, 2004, P 39 DEFR FLOOD COAS, P14 CARRETERO JC, 1998, B AM METEOROL SOC, V79, P741 DEBERNARD J, 2002, CLIMATE RES, V23, P39 EVANS EP, 2004, FORESIGHT FLOOD COAS EVANS EP, 2004, FORESIGHT FLOOD COAS, V1 GULEV SK, 1999, INT J CLIMATOL, V19, P1091 HALL JW, 2003, P I CIVIL ENG-WATER, V156, P235 HARGREAVES JC, 2002, GLOBAL ATMOS OCEAN S, V8, P41 HOLMAN IP, 2005, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V71, P43 HOLMAN IP, 2005, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V71, P9 HULME M, 1998, 1 UKCIP CLIM RES UN HULME M, 2000, UKCIP02 TYND CTR LANGENBERG H, 1999, CONT SHELF RES, V19, P821 LOWE JA, 2001, CLIM DYNAM, V18, P179 PENNINGROWSELL EC, 2003, BENEFITS FLOOD COAST SUTHERLAND J, 2003, P I CIVIL ENG-WATER, V156, P137 TSIMPLIS MN, 2005, PHILOS T ROY SOC A, V363, P1329 VOORTMAN HG, 2003, P 28 INT C CARD UK J, V2, P2373 VRIJLING JK, 2001, RELIAB ENG SYST SAFE, V74, P337 WOOLF DK, 2002, J GEOPHYS RES OCEANS, V107 NR 29 TC 0 J9 PHIL TRANS ROY SOC A-MATH PHY BP 1027 EP 1049 PY 2006 PD APR 15 VL 364 IS 1841 GA 025PJ UT ISI:000236278700018 ER PT J AU BURTON, I PUSHCHAK, R TI THE STATUS AND PROSPECTS OF RISK ASSESSMENT SO GEOFORUM LA English DT Article C1 UNIV TORONTO,DEPT GEOG,TORONTO M5S 1A1,ONTARIO,CANADA. UNIV TORONTO,ERINDALE COLL,DEPT GEOG,MISSISSAUGA L5L 1C6,ONTARIO,CANADA. RP BURTON, I, UNIV TORONTO,INST ENVIRONM STUDIES,TORONTO M5S 1A1,ONTARIO,CANADA. CR AIKIN AM, 1977, EP776 EN MIN RES REP BLOKKER EF, 1981, ANGEWANDTE SYSTEMANA, V2, P168 BURTON I, 1978, ENV HAZARD, V1, P1 BURTON I, 1980, MISSISSAUGA EVACUATI BURTON I, 1983, ENV IMPACT ASSESSMEN BURTON I, 1983, TRANSPORT DANGEROUS CLARK WC, 1980, SOC RISK ASSESSMENT, P287 COVELLO V, 1982, RISK TECHNOLOGICAL S, P287 DOOLEY J, 1983, RISK, P81 FISCHHOFF B, 1982, AM STATIST, P240 GARDNER GT, 1982, J SOC PSYCHOL, V116, P179 HARPER FV, 1956, LAW TORTS HOLDREN JP, 1981, RISK ANAL, V1, P173 INHABER H, 1978, AECB1119 AT EN CONTR JOHNSON EL, 1982, AM STAT, V36, P232 KASPER RG, 1980, SOC RISK ASSESSMENT, P71 KASPERSON RE, 1983, RISK, P135 KATES RW, 1978, SCOPE, V8 KEENEY R, 1980, SITING ENERGY FACILI LAGADEC P, 1982, MAJOR TECHNOLOGICAL LATHROP J, 1980, IIASA WP80150 LEE KN, 1981, SCIENCE, V208, P679 LOWRANCE WW, 1976, ACCEPTABLE RISK SCI MILLER DR, 1983, RISK, P31 PEARCE DW, 1981, P ROY SOC LOND A, V276, P181 PUSHCHAK R, 1981, URBAN NATURAL AREAS, P73 PUSHCHAK R, 1983, PLAN CANADA, V23, P68 RASMUSSEN N, 1975, WASH1400 NUCL EN STU ROWE WD, 1977, ANATOMY RISK SELIKOFF IJ, 1983, RISK, P71 SIDDALL E, 1980, RISK FEAR PUBLIC SAF SLOVIC P, 1979, ENERGY RISK MANAGEME, P223 SLOVIC P, 1981, P ROY SOC LOND A MAT, V376, P17 STARR C, 1969, SCIENCE, V165, P1232 TVERSKY A, 1974, SCIENCE, V185, P1124 WELLER P, 1982, ALTERNATIVES, V2, P5 WHITE GF, 1942, 29 U CHIC DEP GEOGR WHITE GF, 1966, ENV QUALITY GROWING, P105 WHYTE AV, 1980, SCOPE, V15 WHYTE AV, 1982, LIVING RISK ENV RISK, P39 WHYTE AV, 1983, RISK, P121 WILSON R, 1982, RISK BENEFIT ANAL WOLPERT J, 1976, NAT RESOUR J, V16, P103 NR 43 TC 2 J9 GEOFORUM BP 463 EP 475 PY 1984 VL 15 IS 3 GA TE181 UT ISI:A1984TE18100013 ER PT J AU Saizar, A TI Assessment of impacts of a potential sea-level rise on the coast of Montevideo, Uruguay SO CLIMATE RESEARCH LA English DT Article C1 Comis Nacl Cambio Global, Uruguay Climate Change Country Study, Montevideo 11100, Uruguay. RP Saizar, A, Comis Nacl Cambio Global, Uruguay Climate Change Country Study, Ciudadela 1414 Piso 6, Montevideo 11100, Uruguay. AB In this study, sea-level rise scenarios derived from a potential climate change were considered and the physical impacts on the coast of Montevideo, Uruguay, under each scenario were determined. The Bruun Rule was used to calculate coastal erosion. The impacts under a 'no action' response were first assessed. Land and coastal construction loss as well as the effects on infrastructure, such as the sewer system and the port, were evaluated. Inundation along the streams which discharge at the coast was qualitatively assessed. The associated costs were estimated. In addition, possible active responses were identified and their costs were estimated. Costs and benefits of each response option, including the 'no action' option, are discussed in the paper, concluding on the need for planning of anticipatory measures. CR *CARP IMFIA, 1992, CORR SED RIO PLATA *CARP SHN SOHMA, 1989, EST CONT RIO PLAT *IPCC, 1990, RESP STRAT WORK GROU *IPCC, 1992, INT WORKSH GLOB CLIM *MTOP PNUD UNESCO, 1979, URU73007 *SOHMA, 1978, OBS MAR PUERT MONT, V15, P40 BRUUN P, 1962, J WATERWAYS HARBORS, V88, P117 NICHOLLS RJ, 1995, J COASTAL RES, V14, P26 VOLONTE CR, 1994, GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANG, P427 NR 9 TC 2 J9 CLIMATE RES BP 73 EP 79 PY 1997 PD DEC 29 VL 9 IS 1-2 GA ZD200 UT ISI:000072661400012 ER PT J AU Krysanova, V Hattermann, F Wechsung, F TI Development of the ecohydrological model SWIM for regional impact studies and vulnerability assessment SO HYDROLOGICAL PROCESSES LA English DT Article C1 Potsdam Inst Climate Impack Res, Global Change & Nat Syst Dept, D-14412 Potsdam, Germany. RP Krysanova, V, Potsdam Inst Climate Impack Res, Global Change & Nat Syst Dept, POB 601203, D-14412 Potsdam, Germany. AB In this paper the ecohydrological model SWIM developed for regional impact assessment is presented, and examples of approaches to climate and land use change impact studies are described. SWIM is a continuous-time semi-distributed ecohydrological model, integrating hydrological processes, vegetation, nutrients (nitrogen and phosphorus) and sediment transport at the river basin scale. Its spatial disaggregation scheme has three levels: (1) basin, (2) sub-basins and (3) hydrotopes within sub-basins. The model was extensively tested and validated for hydrological processes, nitrogen dynamics, crop yield and erosion (mainly in mesoscale sub-basins of the German part of the Elbe River basin). After appropriate validation in representative sub-basins, the model can be applied at the regional scale for impact studies. Particular interest in the global change impact studies is given to effects of expected changes in climate and land use on hydrological processes and agro-ecosystems, including water balance components, water quality and crop yield. This paper (a) introduces the reader to the class of process-based ecohydrological catchment scale models, (b) introduces SWIM as one such model, and (c) presents two examples of impact studies performed with SWIM for the federal state of Brandenburg (Germany), which overlaps with the lowland part of the Elbe drainage area. The impact studies provide a better understanding of the complex interactions between climate, hydrological processes and vegetation, and improve our potential adaptation to the expected changes. Copyright (C) 2005 John Wiley Sons, Ltd. CR *GRASS4 1, 1996, REF MAN ARNOLD JG, 1990, SWRRB BASIN SCALE SI, V255 ARNOLD JG, 1993, J HYDROL, V142, P47 BEVEN KJ, 1996, DISTRIBUTED HYDROLOG DREYHAUPT J, 2001, UFZ BERICHT, V17 EASMUS D, 1991, PLANT CELL ENVIRON, V14, P843 GOUDRIAAN J, 1984, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V6, P167 HARLEY PC, 1992, PLANT CELL ENVIRON, V15, P271 JARVIS PG, 1986, ADV ECOL RES, V15, P1 KIMBALL BA, 1995, GLOB CHANGE BIOL, V1, P429 KIMBALL BA, 1999, WATER RESOUR RES, V35, P1179 KNISEL WG, 1980, USDA CONSERVATION RE, V26, P643 KRYSANOVA V, 1989, ECOL MODEL, V49, P7 KRYSANOVA V, 1998, ECOL MODEL, V106, P261 KRYSANOVA V, 1998, IAHS PUBLICATION, V249, P13 KRYSANOVA V, 1999, ENVIRON MODEL ASSESS, V4, P259 KRYSANOVA V, 1999, IAHS PUBL, V257, P201 KRYSANOVA V, 2000, 69 PIK KRYSANOVA V, 2000, HYDROBIOLOGIA, V410, P131 KRYSANOVA V, 2002, ADV GLOB CHANGE RES, V10, P271 KRYSANOVA V, 2002, IN PREEE LINKAGE HYD LEONARD RA, 1987, T ASAE, V30, P1403 MONTEITH JL, 1965, S SOC EXP BIOL, V19, P205 MUSCUTT AD, 1993, AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON, V45, P59 NASH JE, 1970, J HYDROL, V10, P282 OCALLAGHAN JR, 1996, LAND USE INTERACION, P200 PRIESTLEY CHB, 1972, MON WEATHER REV, V100, P81 ROTMANS J, 1993, TELLUS, V45, P1 SMITH RE, 1992, OPUS INTEGRATED SIMU, V1 WATSON RT, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, V1, P1 WECHSUNG F, 2000, LANDSCAPE URBAN PLAN, V51, P105 WERNER PC, 1997, CLIMATE RES, V8, P171 WILLIAMS JR, 1977, T ASAE, V20, P1100 WILLIAMS JR, 1983, J SOIL WATER CONSERV, V38, P381 YOUNG RA, 1989, J SOIL WATER CONSERV, V44, P168 NR 35 TC 2 J9 HYDROL PROCESS BP 763 EP 783 PY 2005 PD FEB 28 VL 19 IS 3 GA 900RF UT ISI:000227231300015 ER PT J AU Dessai, S Hulme, M TI Assessing the robustness of adaptation decisions to climate change uncertainties: A case study on water resources management in the East of England SO GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS LA English DT Article C1 Univ E Anglia, Sch Environm Sci, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. Tyndall Ctr Climate Change Res, Norwich, Norfolk, England. RP Dessai, S, Univ E Anglia, Sch Environm Sci, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. AB Projections of future climate change are plagued with uncertainties, causing difficulties for planners taking decisions on adaptation measures. This paper presents an assessment framework that allows the identification of adaptation strategies that are robust (i.e. insensitive) to climate change uncertainties. The framework is applied to a case study of water resources management in the East of England, more specifically to the Anglian Water Services' 25 year Water Resource Plan (WRP). The paper presents a local sensitivity analysis (a 'one-at-a-time' experiment) of the various elements of the modelling framework (e.g., emissions of greenhouse gases, climate sensitivity and global climate models) in order to determine whether or not a decision to adapt to climate change is sensitive to uncertainty in those elements. Water resources are found to be sensitive to uncertainties in regional climate response (from general circulation models and dynamical downscaling), in climate sensitivity and in climate impacts. Aerosol forcing and greenhouse gas emissions uncertainties are also important, whereas uncertainties from ocean mixing and the carbon cycle are not. Despite these large uncertainties, Anglian Water Services' WRP remains robust to the climate change uncertainties sampled because of the adaptation options being considered (e.g. extension of water treatment works), because the climate model used for their planning (HadCM3) predicts drier conditions than other models, and because 'one-at-a-time' experiments do not sample the combination of different extremes in the uncertainty range of parameters. This research raises the question of how much certainty is required in climate change projections to justify investment in adaptation measures, and whether such certainty can be delivered. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *AWS LTD, 2004, WAT RES PLAN *COMM EUR COMM, 2005, WINN BATTL GLOB CLIM *EA, 2001, WAT RES FUT STRAT AN *EA, 2003, WAT RES PLANN GUID V *EA, 2004, MAINT WAT SUPPL ENV *EERA SDRT, 2004, LIV CLIM CHANG E ENG MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 *UKWIR LTD, 2003, 03CL0402 UKWIR LTD ADGER WN, 2005, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V15, P77 ALEXANDER LV, 2001, ATMOSPHERIC SCI LETT, V1 ANDRONOVA NG, 2001, J GEOPHYS RES-ATMOS, V106, P22605 ARNELL NW, 2003, J HYDROL, V270, P195 ARNELL NW, 2004, UNPUB EVIDENCE TYNDA ARNELL NW, 2004, WATER ENVIRON J, V18, P112 ARNELL NW, 2006, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V78, P227 BANKES S, 1993, OPER RES, V41, P435 CALDEIRA K, 2003, SCIENCE, V299, P2052 CAMPOLONGO F, 2000, SENSITIVITY ANAL, P65 CARNELL J, 1999, J CHART INST WATER E, V13, P413 CARTER TR, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, P145 CASMAN EA, 1999, RISK ANAL, V19, P33 DESSAI S, 2005, THESIS U E ANGLIA NO FOREST CE, 2002, SCIENCE, V295, P113 FUNTOWICZ SO, 1990, UNCERTAINTY QUALITY GOODMAN D, 2002, HUM ECOL RISK ASSESS, V8, P177 HELTON JC, 1996, RELIAB ENG SYST SAFE, V54, P91 HELTON JC, 2002, RISK ANAL, V22, P591 HEWITT GD, 2004, EOS, V85, P566 HOBBS BF, 1997, J ENVIRON MANAGE, V49, P53 HOBBS BJ, 1997, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V37, P177 HULME M, 2002, CLIMATE CHANGE SCENA JONES RN, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P403 JONES RN, 2001, INTEGRATING MODELS N JONES RN, 2001, NAT HAZARDS, V23, P197 KAHNEMAN D, 1982, JUDGEMENT UNCERTAINT KNIGHT F, 1922, RISK UNCERTAINTY PRO KNUTTI R, 2002, NATURE, V416, P719 LEMPERT RJ, 1996, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V33, P235 LEMPERT RJ, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P387 LEMPERT RJ, 2003, SHAPING NEXT 100 YEA LEMPERT RJ, 2006, MANAGE SCI, V52, P514 MITCHELL JFB, 1999, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V41, P547 MITCHELL TD, 2003, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V60, P217 MORGAN MG, 1990, UNCERTAINTY GUIDE DE MORITA T, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, P115 MURPHY JM, 2004, NATURE, V430, P768 NAKICENOVIC N, 2000, EMISSIONS SCENARIOS REGAN HM, 2005, ECOL APPL, V15, P1471 RISBEY JS, 1998, WATER POLICY, V1, P321 SANTER BD, 1990, 47 M PLANCK I MET SHERIFF JD, 1996, J CHART INST WATER E, V10, P160 STAINFORTH DA, 2005, NATURE, V433, P403 STEWART TR, 2000, PREDICTION SCI DECIS, P41 VANASSELT MBA, 2000, PERSPECTIVES UNCERTA VANDERSLUIJS JP, 2003, NWSE2003163 CORP I R VANDERSLUIJS JP, 2004, NWSE200437 CORP I RI VANLENTHE J, 1997, RISK DECISION POLICY, V2, P213 VISSER H, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P421 WALKER WE, 2003, INTEGRATED ASSESSMEN, V4, P5 WIGLEY TML, 1992, NATURE, V357, P293 WIGLEY TML, 1995, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V22, P2749 WIGLEY TML, 2001, SCIENCE, V293, P451 WILBY RL, 2005, HYDROL PROCESS, V19, P3201 WINKLER RL, 1996, RELIAB ENG SYST SAFE, V54, P127 YOHE GW, 2004, SCIENCE, V306, P416 YOHE GW, 1991, POLICY SCI, V24, P245 NR 66 TC 0 J9 GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANGE BP 59 EP 72 PY 2007 PD FEB VL 17 IS 1 GA 149YG UT ISI:000245182200008 ER PT J AU Perez, RT Feir, RB Carandang, E Gonzalez, EB TI Potential impacts of sea level rise on the coastal resources of Manila Bay: A preliminary vulnerability assessment SO WATER AIR AND SOIL POLLUTION LA English DT Article C1 NAMRIA,DENR,CGSD,MANILA,PHILIPPINES. RP Perez, RT, PAGASA,DOST,QUEZON 1100,PHILIPPINES. AB This study considers the Manila Bay coastal area of the Philippine for evaluation of possible consequences of accelerated sea level rise in the context of climate change, and suggests adaptive responses to such threats. The semienclosed Manila Bay is bounded by the provinces of Bataan, Pampanga, Bulacan, and Cavite, and some of the towns and cities of Metro Manila along the eastern side. This region is important to the commercial industrial agricultural and aquacultural activities of the Philippines, with Manila as the seat of the national government and the rest among the political constituents of the National Capital Region. An increasing trend in the mean sea level has been observed since 1965 and continues today. The bay area is already subject to several hazards including floods and storm surges during tropical cyclones. The shoreline has changed greatly in the last 5 to 10 years due to reclamation for housing, ports, coastal roads, buildings, and other urbanized developments, adding to the threat of inundation. Selection of appropriate responses is looked at in terms of expected vulnerability, costs, land use, and other sociopolitical and legal considerations. Partial results show that parts of Cavite and Metro Manila Bay areas are especially vulnerable to accelerated sea level rise. CR *BFAR, 1994, RES EC ASS MAN BAY, V2 *IPCC, 1990, STRAT AD SEA LEV RIS *IPCC, 1992, GLOB CLIM CHANG RIS *MDPO, 1996, EXC 1995 SOC PROF LA *NAT RES COUNC, 1987, RESP CHANG SEA LEV I *PAGASA, 1983, DOC STRIDES FIELD IN CARANDANG E, 1989, PRELIMINARY ASSESSME LEATHERMAN SP, 1995, J COASTAL RES NR 8 TC 2 J9 WATER AIR SOIL POLLUT BP 137 EP 147 PY 1996 PD SEP VL 92 IS 1-2 GA VM538 UT ISI:A1996VM53800015 ER PT J AU Faisal, IM Parveen, S TI Food security in the face of climate change, population growth, and resource constraints: Implications for Bangladesh SO ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article C1 Presidency Univ, Dhaka 1213, Bangladesh. N South Univ, Dhaka 1213, Bangladesh. RP Faisal, IM, Presidency Univ, Tower Bldg 11A,Rd 92,Gulshan 2, Dhaka 1213, Bangladesh. AB Ensuring food security has been one of the major national priorities of Bangladesh since its independence in 1971. Now, this national priority is facing new challenges from the possible impacts of climate change in addition to the already existing threats from rapid population growth, declining availability of cultivable land, and inadequate access to water in the dry season. In this backdrop, this paper has examined the nature and magnitude of these threats for the benchmark years of 2030 and 2050. It has been shown that the overall impact of climate change on the production of food grains in Bangladesh would probably be small in 2030. This is due to the strong positive impact of CO2 fertilization that would compensate for the negative impacts of higher temperature and sea level rise. In 2050, the negative impacts of climate change might become noticeable: production of rice and wheat might drop by 8% and 32%, respectively. However, rice would be less affected by climate change compared to wheat, which is more sensitive to a change in temperature. Based on the population projections and analysis of future agronomic innovations, this study further shows that the availability of cultivable land alone would not be a constraint for achieving food self-sufficiency, provided that the productivity of rice and wheat grows at a rate of 10% or more per decade. However, the situation would be more critical in terms of water availability. If the dry season water availability does not decline from the 1990 level of about 100 Bm(3), there would be just enough water in 2030 for meeting both the agricultural and nonagricultural needs. In 2050, the demand for irrigation water to maintain food self-sufficiency would be about 40% to 50% of the dry season water availability. Meeting such a high agricultural water demand might cause significant negative impacts on the domestic and commercial water supply, fisheries, ecosystems, navigation, and salinity management. CR *BBS, 2001, POP CENS 2001 PREL R *BBS, 2001, STAT YEAR BOOK BANG *BBS, 2001, YB AGR STAT BANGL *BBS, 2002, STAT POCK BOOK BANGL MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 *IUCN, 2002, IMP CLIM VAR AGR SEC *MOA, 2001, HDB AGR STAT *MPO, 1991, NAT WAT MAN PLAN *WARPO, 2001, IN PRESS NAT WAT MAN, V1 *WB, 2000, BANGL CLIM CHANG SUS ACOCK B, 1993, INT CROP SCI, V1, P299 AHMED A, 2002, AGR SECTOR VULNERABI AHMED AU, 1998, VULNERABILITY ADAPTA, P13 ASADUZZAMAN M, 1997, GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANG BOYCE JK, 1987, AGRARIAN IMPASSE BEN BRAMMER H, 1990, GEOGR J, V156, P12 BRAMMER H, 1990, GEOGR J, V156, P158 DOORENBOS J, 1977, 24 FAO DOROSH PA, 2002, C EC REF FOOD SEC RO EMERY KO, 1991, SEA LEVELS LAND LEVE GABLE FJ, 1990, ENVIRON MANAGE, V14, P33 HABIBULLAH M, 1998, VULNERABILITY ADAPTA, P55 KARIM Z, 1982, NET IRRIGATION REQUI KARIM Z, 1996, WATER AIR SOIL POLL, V92, P53 KARIM Z, 1999, VULNERABILITY ADAPTA, P29 KHAN HR, 2003, WATER RESOURCES DEV, P16 MAHMOOD R, 1995, PHYS GEOGR, V16, P463 ROTTER R, 2000, CLIMATE CHANGE EFFEC, P651 SEN AK, 1976, FAMINES FOOD AVABILA SEN AK, 1981, POVERTY FAMINES ESSA, V1, P1 SEN AK, 1987, HUNGER ENTITLEMENTS SEN AK, 1991, INTERDISCIPLINARY SC, V16, P324 TURNER BL, 1996, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V93, P14984 ZISKA LH, 1997, AGRONOMY J NR 34 TC 0 J9 ENVIRON MANAGE BP 487 EP 498 PY 2004 PD OCT VL 34 IS 4 GA 880WR UT ISI:000225821200004 ER PT J AU Robins, NS Chilton, PJ Cobbing, JE TI Adapting existing experience with aquifer vulnerability and groundwater protection for Africa SO JOURNAL OF AFRICAN EARTH SCIENCES LA English DT Article C1 British Geol Survey, Wallingford OX10 8BB, Oxon, England. CSIR, Nat Resources & Environm Unit, ZA-0001 Pretoria, South Africa. RP Robins, NS, British Geol Survey, Maclean Bldg, Wallingford OX10 8BB, Oxon, England. AB Whilst groundwater vulnerability mapping and the delineation of resource and source protection zones have become an appropriate set of management tools for Britain as incorporated in European policy, much of semi-arid Africa is still dealing with more pressing issues centred on water supply coverage. There are a number of fundamental differences with Britain which disallow conventional vulnerability mapping and land zonation in much of Africa. Firstly, the scale of groundwater occurrence in weathered basement aquifers does not encourage vulnerability mapping to be undertaken at a field scale, whereas the Karoo and some of the larger areas of unconsolidated sedimentary aquifers could more readily be zoned according to aquifer vulnerability. Secondly, analysis needs to disregard the productivity (or recharge potential) of the aquifer so that poorly productive but socially important aquifers can be assessed. Such practice also avoids the need to identify a value for effective rainfall, a problematical value in semi-arid climates given current uncertainties. Thirdly, it is difficult to protect the many small and dispersed groundwater supply sources typical of many African communities when compared with the fewer and larger sources characteristic of Britain and Europe. Some aspects of European groundwater management practice have been transferred to the African context, notably by South Africa, but there are other practices that should not be attempted. Lessons from experience in South Africa highlight capacity to implement as a key inhibiting factor. Examples of vulnerability assessment and land zonation in a variety of African settings indicate only limited success so far with standard vulnerability assessment and land zonation techniques. Alternative means of quantifying the problem of the optimum proximity of the pit latrine from the well are highlighted, with a minimum separation of 10 m suggested for typical weathered basement rocks. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *DWAF, 1997, PROT MAN POT GROUNDW *DWAF, 1998, MIN REQ WAST DISP LA *DWAF, 2000, WAT QUAL MAN SER *DWAF, 2003, PROT MAN POT GROUNDW *DWAF, 2004, NAT WAT RES STRAT *UNEP, 2006, GROUNDW POLL AFR ALLER L, 1987, 600287035 US EPA BARRETT MH, 2000, GROUNDWATER PAST ACH, P691 BURGESS DB, 1998, SPECIAL PUBLICATIONS, V130, P199 CHILTON PJ, 1990, P INT S TROP HYDR CA, P279 DALY D, 2005, GSI GROUNDWATER NEWS, V45, P3 DOCHARTAIGH BEO, 2005, SCOT J GEOL 1, V41, P21 EDET AE, 2004, GROUNDWATER VULNERAB, P56 FETTER CW, 1994, APPL HYDROGEOLOGY FOSTER SSD, 1987, VULNERABILITY SOIL G, V38, P69 FOSTER SSD, 1998, GEOLOGICAL SOC LONDO, V130, P7 HOWARD G, 2002, CR02079 BRIT GEOL SU LAWRENCE AR, 2001, CR01142 BRIT GEOL SU MATO RRA, 2002, THESIS TU EINDHOVEN MATO RRA, 2004, GROUNDWATER VULNERAB, P100 MORRIS BL, 2003, GROUNDWATER ITS SUSC NKHUWA DCW, 1999, GROUNDWATER URBAN EN, P201 NYAMBE IA, 2000, GROUNDWATER PAST ACH, P803 PIETERSEN K, 2005, ABSTR BIENN GROUND W, P393 ROBINS N, 1994, HYDROGEOLOGIE, V3, P35 ROSEN L, 1994, GROUND WATER, V32, P278 TANDIA AA, 1999, J AFR EARTH SCI, V29, P809 VRBA J, 1994, INT CONTRIBUTIONS HY, P16 WANER S, 1998, S AFR J EPIDEMIOL IN, V13, P53 WARD RS, 2004, Q J ENG GEOL HYDRO 4, V37, P271 XU Y, 1995, GUIDELINE GROUNDWATE NR 31 TC 0 J9 J AFR EARTH SCI BP 30 EP 38 PY 2007 PD JAN VL 47 IS 1 GA 136RC UT ISI:000244240800003 ER PT J AU Gummer, WD Conly, FM Wrona, FJ TI Northern Rivers Ecosystem Initiative: Context and prevailing legacy SO ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING AND ASSESSMENT LA English DT Article C1 Environm Canada, Edmonton, AB, Canada. Environm Canada, Saskatoon, SK, Canada. Natl Hydrol Res Ctr, Saskatoon, SK, Canada. Univ Victoria, Dept Geog, Natl Water Res Inst, STN CSC, Victoria, BC, Canada. RP Gummer, WD, Environm Canada, 200,4999 98th Ave, Edmonton, AB, Canada. AB The Northern River Ecosystem Initiative (NREI), 1997-2004, has provided new scientific knowledge in response to specific recommendations from its predecessor, the Northern River Basins Study (NRBS), 1990-1996. The two initiatives together provide a remarkable body of science which is, and will continue to be, used by resource managers responsible for economic and environmental sustainability in the northern watersheds of Alberta. The NREI focused its investigative efforts on improving our understanding related to ecological considerations of changes in river flow, effect of climate change on flow, ecological responses to pollution and cumulative effects, vulnerability of drinking water quality, and to a lesser degree, wildlife (birds) response to large scale changes within the watersheds. Key findings are briefly presented in this paper and discussed in greater detail in the other NREI papers included in this. Commensurate with the undertakings of NREI, provincial and territorial governments, First Nation and Metis communities, and other administrative organizations such as the Mackenzie River Basin Board, undertook policy, regulatory, and watershed initiatives towards achieving sustainability and providing reliable drinking water quality. 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RP Ellis, F, Univ E Anglia, Sch Dev Studies, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. AB This article reviews the recent literature on diversification as a livelihood strategy of rural households in developing countries, with particular reference to sub-Saharan Africa. Livelihood diversification is defined as the process by which rural families construct a diverse portfolio of activities and social support capabilities in order to survive and to improve their standards of living. The determinants and effects of diversification in the areas of poverty income distribution, farm output and gender ar-e examined. Some policy inferences are summarised. The conclusion is reached that removal of constraints to, and expansion of opportunities for diversification are desirable policy objectives because they give individuals and households more capabilities to improve livelihood security and to raise living standards. 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AM ECON REV, V75, P173 STARK O, 1988, EC DEV CULTURAL CHAN, V36, P465 STARK O, 1991, MIGRATION LABOR STICHTER S, 1982, MIGRANT LABOUR CAPIT TAYLOR A, 1996, ENVIRON HIST, V1, P6 TIFFEN M, 1992, DEV POLICY REV, V10, P359 TIFFEN M, 1994, MORE PEOPLE LESS ERO TODARO MP, 1969, AM ECON REV, V59, P138 TODARO MP, 1997, EC DEV TOMICH TP, 1995, TRANSFORMING AGRARIA TSCHIRLEY DK, 1994, WORLD DEV, V22, P159 UNNI J, 1996, ECON POLIT WEEKLY, V31, P2243 VALENTINE TR, 1993, WORLD DEV, V21, P109 VONBRAUN J, 1991, 5 INT FOOD POL RES I WALKER TR, 1990, VILLAGE HOUSEHOLD EC WALKER TS, 1986, CROP INSURANCE AGR D, P17 WEBB P, 1992, 92 INT FOOD POL RES WOLF DL, 1990, DEV CHANGE, V21 ZOOMERS AEB, 1996, TIJDSCHR ECON SOC GE, V87, P161 NR 176 TC 56 J9 J DEVELOP STUD BP 1 EP 38 PY 1998 PD OCT VL 35 IS 1 GA 144MC UT ISI:000077317500002 ER PT J AU Majka, CG Mccorquodale, DB TI The Coccinellidae (Coleoptera) of the Maritime Provinces of Canada: new records, biogeographic notes, and conservation concerns SO ZOOTAXA LA English DT Article C1 Nova Scotia Museum Nat Hist, Halifax, NS B3H 3A6, Canada. Cape Breton Univ, Dept Biol, Sydney, NSW B1P 6L2, Australia. RP Majka, CG, Nova Scotia Museum Nat Hist, 1747 Summer St, Halifax, NS B3H 3A6, Canada. AB New records of Coccinellidae in the Maritime Provinces of Canada are reported. The known fauna of the region consists of 47 species: 41 in Nova Scotia, 39 in New Brunswick, and 21 in Prince Edward Island. Of these, records are provided for 13 species newly recorded from Nova Scotia and 14 from Prince Edward Island. Two species, Diomus amabilis (LeConte) and Naemia seriata seriata Melsheimer, are newly recorded in Canada. Didion punctatum (Melsheimer) is removed from the fauna of PEI, and Coccidula lepida LeConte is removed from the fauna of NS, and Scymnus impexus Mulsant is removed from the faunas of NS and NB. Records of two adventive species not established in the region are also reported. Collecting effort in the three provinces and their sub-regions is briefly analyzed and compared. Biogeographic observations are provided in relation to the composition of the fauna as a whole, and of disjunct populations of six Nova Scotia coccinellids, several of which appear to be members of a coastal plain fauna that extends from New England to southern Nova Scotia. The potential vulnerability of the coccinellid fauna is discussed in the context of both adventive species in the region, and habitat loss and conservation. 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RP McGoodwin, JR, Univ Colorado, Dept Anthropol, 233 UCB, Boulder, CO 80309 USA. AB Research exploring how climatic variability impacts fishing economies in high-latitude regions was conducted in south-central Iceland and southwest Alaska during 2001-2004. Important differences were found regarding the economic impacts of climatic variations in the commercial economies in Iceland and Alaska, versus in the native subsistence economies in Alaska. In general, the commercially inclined economies in both regions seemed less resilient to ordinary climatic variability. Moreover, both of the commercial economies were importantly influenced by fluctuations in global fish markets that are prompted by climatic variations occurring in regions that are geographically very distant from them. A better understanding of how climatic variability affects fishing economies in high-latitude regions will help in the development of more sustainable fisheries policies for these regions, which may already be experiencing radical climatic and ecological change. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR 2001, GLOBAL WARMING NEWS 2004, IMPACTS WARMING ARCT *NAT RES COUNC, 2001, CLIM CHANG SCI AN SO ARNASON R, 1995, N ATLANTIC FISHERIES, P237 BARKER JH, 1993, ALWAYS GETTING READY BELKIN IM, 1998, PROG OCEANOGR, V41, P1 DICKSON RR, 1988, PROGR OCEANOGR, V20, P103 DURRENBERGER EP, 1989, ANTHRO ICELAND FIENUPRIORDAN A, 2000, HUNTING TRADITION CH HAMILTON LC, 2004, ARCTIC, V57, P325 HOUGHTON JT, 2001, IPCC 3 ASSESSMENT RE JOLLES CZ, 2002, FAITH FOOD FAMILY YU JONSSON S, 1995, N ATLANTIC FISHERIES, P267 JOSEPH DS, 1997, BEND KAWAGLEY AO, 1995, YUPIAQ WORLDVIEW PAT MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 MCGOODWIN JR, 1990, CRISIS WORLDS FISHER MEAD R, 2001, ICELAND METZ B, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 PALSSON G, 1991, COASTAL EC CULTURAL PALSSON G, 1995, ECOLOGICAL EC, V24, P275 PALSSON G, 1998, ECOL ECON, V24, P275 SERVICE ER, 1971, PRIMITIVE SOCIAL ORG VANSTONE JW, 1984, HDB N AM INDIANS, V5, P205 VANSTONE JW, 1984, HDB N AM INDIANS, V5, P224 NR 25 TC 0 J9 MAR POLICY BP 40 EP 55 PY 2007 PD JAN VL 31 IS 1 GA 095KN UT ISI:000241306700005 ER PT J AU Adger, WN Vincent, K TI Uncertainty in adaptive capacity SO COMPTES RENDUS GEOSCIENCE LA English DT Article C1 Univ E Anglia, Sch Environm Sci, Tyndall Ctr Climate Change Res, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. RP Adger, WN, Univ E Anglia, Sch Environm Sci, Tyndall Ctr Climate Change Res, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. AB The capacity to adapt is a critical element of the process of adaptation: it is the vector of resources that represent the asset base from which adaptation actions can be made. Adaptive capacity can in theory be identified and measured at various scales, from the individual to the nation. The assessment of uncertainty within such measures comes from the contested knowledge domain and theories surrounding the nature of the determinants of adaptive capacity and the human action of adaptation. While generic adaptive capacity at the national level, for example, is often postulated as being dependent on health, governance and political rights, and literacy, and economic well-being, the determinants of these variables at national levels are not widely understood. We outline the nature of this uncertainty for the major elements of adaptive capacity and illustrate these issues with the example of a social vulnerability index for countries in Africa. To cite this article: W.N. Adger, K. Vincent, C. R. Geoscience 337 (2005). (c) 2004 Academie des sciences. Published by Elsevier SAS. All rights reserved. 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P658 VIDYARTHI LP, 1975, E ANTHR, V28, P313 VITERI FE, 1971, FAMINE S DEALING NUT, P25 WALFORD C, 1879, FAMINES WORLD PAST P WALLACE AFC, 1957, HUM ORGAN, V16, P23 WALLACE AFC, 1969, CULTURE PERSONALITY WATT RS, 1923, HEART SAVAGEDOM WHITEHEAD RG, 1971, FAMINE S UPPSALA, P41 WIDDOWSON EM, 1976, PROC NUTR SOC ENGL S, V35, P175 WILMSEN EN, 1978, ANTHR ASSESSMENT NUT, P65 WOLFSTEIN M, 1957, DISASTER PSYCHOLOGIC WOODHAMSMITH C, 1962, GREAT HUNGER IRELAND ZIMMERMANN RJ, 1975, PRIMATE BEHAVIOR DEV, V4, P241 ZYGMUNT J, 1972, HUM RELAT, V25, P449 NR 217 TC 44 J9 CURR ANTHROPOL BP 21 EP 44 PY 1980 VL 21 IS 1 GA JG257 UT ISI:A1980JG25700002 ER PT J AU Shafer, CL TI National park and reserve planning to protect biological diversity: some basic elements SO LANDSCAPE AND URBAN PLANNING LA English DT Review C1 Natl Pk Serv, Washington, DC 20240 USA. RP Shafer, CL, Natl Pk Serv, 1849 C St NW, Washington, DC 20240 USA. AB Key needs for the creation of a nature reserve system are outlined: formulating goals, selecting management categories, taking inventory, identifying gaps, designing reserves, measuring reserve condition and vulnerability, and recognizing the relationship between research and management. Some essential components are highlighted: a regional perspective, diversification of management categories, focus on the economics of human welfare, not ignoring the opportunities small reserves can provide for some biota, addition of marine reserves, and the importance of a focus on natural processes. The view some Americans have of indigenous people and protected areas is not compatible with third world realities. Since the problems and challenges of protecting areas in northern and southern countries are alike in many ways, however, a Eurocentric seeking to articulate the special circumstances faced by tropical countries offers these suggestions. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. 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BIOSCIENCE, V48, P607 WILLE C, 1995, NATURE CONSERVANCY, V45, P11 WILLIAMS OR, 1996, SCI ECOSYSTEM MANAGE, P161 WILLISS GF, 1985, DO THINGS RIGHT 1 TI WILSON DE, 1996, MANU BIODIVERSITY SE WILSON EO, 1985, BIOSCIENCE, V35, P700 WOINARSKI JCZ, 1992, AUSTR GLOB ECOL BIOG, V2, P11 WOLF CM, 1996, CONSERV BIOL, V10, P1142 WOODROFFE R, 1998, SCIENCE, V280, P2126 WOODWELL GM, 1983, SCIENCE, V222, P1081 YOUNG RH, 1994, LANDSCAPE ECOLOGY GE ZUBE EH, 1986, LANDSCAPE URBAN PLAN, V13, P11 NR 287 TC 12 J9 LANDSCAPE URBAN PLAN BP 123 EP 153 PY 1999 PD MAY 10 VL 44 IS 2-3 GA 204LW UT ISI:000080766600006 ER PT J AU Turner, MD Williams, TO TI Livestock market dynamics and local vulnerabilities in the sahel SO WORLD DEVELOPMENT LA English DT Review C1 Univ Wisconsin, Madison, WI 53706 USA. Int Livestock Res Inst, Ibadan, Nigeria. RP Turner, MD, Univ Wisconsin, Madison, WI 53706 USA. AB As institutions that facilitate the conversion of livestock to grain and adjust livestock populations to local forage availabilities, livestock markets play important economic and ecological roles in dryland Africa, Using a comprehensive database of 1,580 sales of livestock owned by members of 54 households in western Niger over a major drought-and-recovery cycle (1984-94), the effect of real livestock markets on stocking decisions and the economic vulnerability of rural households was investigated. While livestock markets are shown to facilitate destocking of animals from drought areas, price formation is socially-biased (by gender, wealth, residence) reflecting the differential access and powers within local markets, (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. 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RP ElRaey, M, Univ Alexandria, Inst Grad Studies & Res, Alexandria, Egypt. AB An assessment of the impact of sea level rise on the city of Port Said, Egypt has been carried out using remote sensing and GIS techniques. Bruun's is used to estimate horizontal retreat, due to three scenarios of sea level rise, taking into account local subsidence rates. Overlaying horizontal retreat on land use obtained by remote sensing enabled us to estimate possible losses and socioeconomic impacts. Results indicate serious physical and socio-economic impacts. It is suggested that protection measures must be carried out with emphasis on building breakwaters along the most vulnerable shoreline area. CR *CRI UNESCO UNDP, 1 CRIUNESCOUNDP *DELFT HYDR RES AN, 1992, VULN ASS ACC ACC SEA *IDSC, 1995, PER B PROD CAB INF D *IPCC, 1995, STRAT AD SEA LEV RIS BRUUN P, 1962, J WATERWAYS HARBORS, V88, P117 ELFISHAWI NM, 1989, COMM QUAT SHORELINE, V11, P43 ELRAEY M, 1990, CHANGING CLIMATE COA, V2, P225 ELRAEY M, 1995, J COASTAL RES, V14, P190 ELRAEY M, 1997, ENVIRON MONIT ASSESS, V47, P59 ELRAEY M, 1997, IN PRESS INT J REMOT ELSAYED MK, 1988, SEA LEVEL RISE ALEXA EMERY KO, 1988, MAR GEOL, V81, P41 FANOS AM, 1995, J COASTAL RES, V11, P516 FRIHY OE, 1991, NAT HAZARDS, V5, P65 FRIHY OE, 1992, J INT UNION GEODESY, V11, P81 FRIHY OE, 1996, IN PRESS INT J REMOT HALLERMEIER RJ, 1981, COAST ENG, V4, P253 MILLIMAN JD, 1989, AMBIO, V18, P340 NAFAA MG, 1993, J COASTAL RES, V2, P423 NICHOLLS RJ, 1994, J COASTAL RES, V14, P205 SESTINI G, 1989, 214 WG UNEPOCA SIEGEL FR, 1994, ENVIRON GEOL, V23, P89 STANLEY DJ, 1990, MAR GEOL, V94, P147 STANLEY DJ, 1993, SCIENCE, V260, P628 NR 24 TC 1 J9 ENVIRON MONIT ASSESS BP 113 EP 128 PY 1999 PD MAY VL 56 IS 2 GA 195NP UT ISI:000080258300001 ER PT J AU Bennett, EM Cumming, GS Peterson, GD TI A systems model approach to determining resilience surrogates for case studies SO ECOSYSTEMS LA English DT Article C1 McGill Univ, McGill Sch Environm, Ste Anne De Bellevue, PQ H9X 3V9, Canada. Univ Wisconsin, Ctr Limnol, Madison, WI 53706 USA. Univ Florida, Dept Wildlife Ecol & Conservat, Gainesville, FL 32611 USA. McGill Univ, Dept Geog, Montreal, PQ H3A 2K6, Canada. McGill Univ, McGill Sch Environm, Montreal, PQ H3A 2K6, Canada. RP Bennett, EM, McGill Univ, Dept Nat Resource Sci, Macdonald Campus 21,111 Lakeshore Rd, Ste Anne De Bellevue, PQ H9X 3V9, Canada. AB Resilience theory offers a framework for understanding the dynamics of complex systems. However, operationalizing resilience theory to develop and test empirical hypotheses can be difficult. We present a method in which simple systems models are used as a framework to identify resilience surrogates for case studies. The process of constructing a systems model for a particular case offers a path for identifying important variables related to system resilience, including the slowly-changing variables and thresholds that often are keys to understanding the resilience of a system. We develop a four-step process for identifying resilience surrogates through development of systems models. Because systems model development is often a difficult step, we summarize four basic existing systems models and give examples of how each may be used to identify resilience surrogates. The construction and analysis of simple systems models provides a useful basis for guiding and directing the selection of surrogate variables that will offer appropriate empirical measures of resilience. 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Univ Maryland, Ctr Environm Sci, Cambridge, MD 21613 USA. USA, Corps Engineers, Engineer Res & Dev Ctr, Vicksburg, MS 39180 USA. Louisiana State Univ, Hurricane Ctr, Baton Rouge, LA 70803 USA. Univ New Orleans, Dept Sociol, New Orleans, LA 70148 USA. Ohio State Univ, Columbus, OH 43202 USA. USA, Inst Water Resources, Corps Engineers, Alexandria, VA 22315 USA. Louisiana State Univ, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Baton Rouge, LA 70803 USA. Univ New Orleans, Dept Geol & Geophys, New Orleans, LA 70148 USA. Resources Future Inc, Washington, DC 20036 USA. Univ Washington, Sch Aquat & Fishery Sci, Seattle, WA 98015 USA. BP Explorat Alaska, Anchorage, AK 99519 USA. Colorado State Univ, Engn Res Ctr, Ft Collins, CO 80523 USA. Virginia Inst Marine Sci, Gloucester Point, VA 23062 USA. Smithsonian Environm Res Ctr, Edgewater, MD 21037 USA. RP Day, JW, Louisiana State Univ, Dept Oceanog & Coastal Sci, Baton Rouge, LA 70803 USA. AB Hurricanes Katrina and Rita showed the vulnerability of coastal communities and how human activities that caused deterioration of the Mississippi Deltaic Plain (MDP) exacerbated this vulnerability. The MDP formed by dynamic interactions between river and coast at various temporal and spatial scales, and human activity has reduced these interactions at all scales. Restoration efforts aim to re-establish this dynamic interaction, with emphasis on reconnecting the river to the deltaic plain. Science must guide MDP restoration, which will provide insights into delta restoration elsewhere and generally into coasts facing climate change in times of resource scarcity. CR *INT PAN CLIM CHAN, 2001, CLIM CHANG 2001 SCI *INT PERF EV TASK, 2006, 0003806 MMTF US ARM *LOUIS WETL CONS R, 1998, COAST 2050 SUST COAS *NAT RES COUNC, 2005, DRAW LOUIS NEW MAP A *NAT WETL RES CTR, US GEOL SURV *US ARM CORPS ENG, 1963, HURR STUD MORG CIT L *US ARM CORPS ENG, 2004, LOUIS COAST AR LOUIS BARRAS JA, 1994, 9401 NAT WETL RES CT BAUMANN RH, 1984, SCIENCE, V224, P1093 BOESCH D, 2006, NEW FRAMEWORK PLANNI BOESCH DF, 1994, J COASTAL RES, V20 BOUMANS RMJ, 1997, ECOL ENG, V9, P37 BRITSCH LD, 1993, J COASTAL RES, V9, P324 CAHOON DR, 1995, MAR GEOL, V128, P1 COLEMAN JM, 1998, J COASTAL RES, V14, P698 CONNER WH, 1989, WETLANDS ECOLOGY MAN, V1, P45 COSTANZA R, 2006, FRONT ECOL ENVIRON, V4, P465 DANIELSEN F, 2005, SCIENCE, V310, P643 DAY JW, 1997, COAST MANAGE, V25, P115 DAY JW, 2000, ESTUARIES, V23, P425 DAY JW, 2003, BIOTECHNOL ADV, V22, P135 DAY JW, 2005, ECOL ENG, V24, P253 DAY RH, 1990, ENVIRON MANAGE, V14, P229 DEAN RG, 2006, COAST ENG, V53, P149 DEFFEYES KS, 2001, HUBBERTS PEAK IMPEND DELAUNE RD, 2003, WATER AIR SOIL POLL, V3, P167 EMANUEL K, 2005, NATURE, V436, P686 FISK HN, 1954, J SEDIMENT PETROL, V24, P76 GAGLIANO SM, 1981, T GULF COAST ASS GEO, V31, P295 GRAMLING R, 2005, J COASTAL RES S, V144, P112 HALL C, 2003, NATURE, V426, P318 HOYOS CD, 2006, SCIENCE, V312, P94 KESEL RH, 1989, ENVIRON GEOL WAT SCI, V13, P183 KOCH EW, 1999, MAR ECOL-PROG SER, V184, P63 LASKA S, 2006, NAT NAZ OBSERVER, V31, P2 LOVELACE JK, 1994, 94371 US GEOL SURV MASHRIQUI HS, 2006, COASTAL HYDROLOGY WA, P481 MENDELSSOHN IA, 1991, J COASTAL RES, V7, P137 MENDELSSOHN IA, 2000, CONCEPTS CONTROVERSI, P59 MENDELSSOHN IA, 2003, ECOL ENG, V21, P115 MITSCH WJ, 2001, BIOSCIENCE, V51, P373 MITSCH WJ, 2003, ECOLOGICAL ENG ECOSY MITSCH WJ, 2006, ECOL ENG, V26, P55 MORTON RA, 2002, GULF COAST ASS GEOL, V52, P707 PENLAND S, 1988, J SEDIMENT PETROL, V58, P932 RABALAIS NN, 1994, ESTUARIES, V17, P850 RAUPACH MR, 1981, ANNU REV FLUID MECH, V13, P97 REID RO, 1976, J WATERW HARBORS COA, P61 ROBERTS HH, 1997, J COASTAL RES, V13, P605 SAUCIER R, 1994, GEOMORPHOLOGY QUATER, V1 STONE GW, 1998, J COASTAL RES, V14, P900 SWENSON EM, 1987, ESTUAR COAST SHELF S, V24, P599 SWERISON EM, 1994, HURRICAN ANDREW IN L TURNER RE, 2002, APPROACHES COASTAL W TURNER RE, 2006, SCIENCE, V314, P449 WEBSTER PJ, 2005, SCIENCE, V309, P1844 WELLS JT, 1987, ESTUAR COAST SHELF S, V25, P111 NR 57 TC 0 J9 SCIENCE BP 1679 EP 1684 PY 2007 PD MAR 23 VL 315 IS 5819 GA 148WA UT ISI:000245106900029 ER PT J AU Swaminathan, MS TI Bio-diversity: an effective safety net against environmental pollution SO ENVIRONMENTAL POLLUTION LA English DT Article C1 Taramani Inst Area, MS Swaminathan Res Fdn, Madras 600113, Tamil Nadu, India. RP Swaminathan, MS, Taramani Inst Area, MS Swaminathan Res Fdn, Madras 600113, Tamil Nadu, India. AB Biodiversity is the feedstock for the biotechnology industry. Hence, the conservation, enhancement and sustainable and equitable use of biodiversity should be accorded high priority in all national environment protection programmes. Lichens serve as useful indicators of environmental health. Similarly, several blue green algae help to sequester salt from water. There is need for the more widespread use of such biomonitoring and bioremediation agents. Bioprospecting research designed to identify novel metabolites must be rooted in the principle of equity in sharing benefits with the holders of traditional knowledge. There is need for greater vigil against alien invasive species, since with growing world trade in food grains and other agricultural commodities, there is an increasing possibility of introducing new pests, weeds and harmful micro-organisms. Finally, biological scientists should place emphasis on their ethical responsibility for the consequences of their research, since otherwise bioterrorism could become a major threat to human security. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR HAWKSWORTH DL, 1992, BOT J LINN SOC, V109, P543 NR 1 TC 0 J9 ENVIRON POLLUT BP 287 EP 291 PY 2003 VL 126 IS 3 GA 723WT UT ISI:000185455100002 ER PT J AU KOTLYAKOV, VM MATHER, JR SDASYUK, GV WHITE, GF TI GLOBAL CHANGE - GEOGRAPHICAL APPROACHES (A REVIEW) SO PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA LA English DT Review C1 UNIV DELAWARE,NEWARK,DE 19716. UNIV COLORADO,BOULDER,CO 80309. RP KOTLYAKOV, VM, ACAD SCI USSR,INST GEOG,MOSCOW 109017,USSR. CR 1986, GLOBAL CHANGE GEOSPH 1986, VLIYANIE KHOZYASTVA 1987, BANKI GEOGRAPHICHESK ANDERSON MC, 1987, PUBL, V166, P329 BARRETT EC, 1981, USE SATELLITE DATA R BARRY RG, 1984, AGU GEOPHYSICAL MONO, V29, P221 BURTON I, 1978, ENV HAZARD, V1, P1 CALLAHAN JT, 1984, BIOSCIENCE, V34, P363 CAMILLO PJ, 1983, WATER RESOUR RES, V19, P371 CHORLEY RJ, 1969, WATER EARTH MAN DICKINSON RE, 1985, ADV GEOPHYS, V28, P99 DOKUCHAEV VV, 1892, NASHI CTEPI PREJDI T DOZIER J, 1980, WATER RESOUR RES, V16, P709 DOZIER J, 1987, P INT S LARGE SCALE, V166, P305 GLAZOVSKY NF, 1988, STRUKTURA NOOSPHERY, V1, P38 GORSHKOV SP, 1982, EKZ DINAMICHESKIE PR GOWARD SN, 1987, ADV SPACE RES, V7, P165 GREENLAND D, 1983, GUIDELINES MODERN RE HALL DK, 1985, REMOTE SENSING SNOW HALL DK, 1987, P INT S LARGE SCALE, V166, P403 HARWELL MA, 1985, ENV CONCEQUENCES NUC HEATHCOTE RL, 1985, SCOPE REP, V27, P369 KASPERSON RE, 1985, PUBLIC ADMIN REV, V45, P7 KASPERSON RE, 1988, NUCLEAR RISK ANAL CO KATES RW, 1978, SCOPE8 REP KATES RW, 1983, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V80, P7027 KATES RW, 1985, CLIMATE IMPACT ASSES KOMAR IV, 1975, RATSIONALNOYE ISPOLZ KUSHKAREV AB, 1987, REGIONALNUE GEOINFOR LVOVITCH MI, 1986, VODA ZHIZN VODNYE RE MALONE TF, 1986, ENVIRONMENT, V28, P39 MALONE TF, 1986, ENVIRONMENT, V28, P6 MARBLE DF, 1985, MANUAL REMOTE SENSIN, V1, P923 MARSH GP, 1864, MAN NATURE PHYSICAL MATHER JR, 1984, WATER RESOURCES DIST MILLER DH, 1978, SOURCEBOOK ENV, P63 MINTZ Y, 1983, NASA84973 TECH MEM MITCHELL JK, 1984, DEP GEOGR RES PAP, V209, P33 MUNN RE, 1980, ENV IMPACT ASSESSMEN MYAGKOV SM, 1986, PROBLEMY GEOGRAFII 5, V1, P9 ORIORDAN T, 1986, GEOGRAPHY RESOURCES, V2, P272 PARRY ML, 1987, ASSESSMENT CLIMATE I, V1 PARRY ML, 1987, ASSESSMENT CLIMATE I, V2 RASOOL SI, 1987, ADV SPACE RES, V7, P1 RIABCHIKOV AM, 1980, CRUGOVOROT VESHCHEST RUTTENBERG S, 1983, DRAFT WORKSHOP REPOR SCHIFFER RA, 1983, B AM METEOROL SOC, V64, P779 SELLERS PJ, 1986, J ATMOS SCI, V43, P505 SELLERS PJ, 1988, B AM METEOROL SOC, V69, P22 SHUGART HH, 1984, THEORY FOREST DYNAMI SOKOLOV VE, 1983, 1ST P INT C BIOSPH R, P70 THOMAS WL, 1956, MANS ROLE CHANGING F VELITCHKO AA, 1985, P ACAD SCI USSR G, V6, P25 VERNADSKY VI, 1981, ISBRANNII TRYDI ISTO WARRICK RA, 1986, SCOPE, V29, P393 WASHINGTON WM, 1986, INTRO 3 DIMENSIONAL WHYTE AV, 1980, ENV RISK ASSESSMENT NR 57 TC 5 J9 PROC NAT ACAD SCI USA BP 5986 EP 5991 PY 1988 PD AUG VL 85 IS 16 GA P7818 UT ISI:A1988P781800047 ER PT J AU Henrie, CJ Plane, DA TI Decentralization of the nation's main street: New coastal-proximity-based portrayals of population distribution in the United States, 1950-2000 SO PROFESSIONAL GEOGRAPHER LA English DT Article C1 Pittsburg State Univ, Dept Social Sci, Geog Program, Pittsburg, KS 66762 USA. Univ Arizona, Dept Geog & Reg Dev, Tucson, AZ 85721 USA. RP Henrie, CJ, Pittsburg State Univ, Dept Social Sci, Geog Program, Pittsburg, KS 66762 USA. AB Almost half a century has passed since Jean Gottmann coined the term "Megalopolis" in reference to the almost continuously urbanized stretch of land spanning the East Coast of the United States from southern New Hampshire to northern Virginia. Because a disproportionate concentration of population resided in this Megalopolis, the northeastern core enjoyed an economic and cultural supremacy, and he termed the Megalopolis "The Main Street of the Nation." By the later 1960s and 1970s, however, population migration patterns began to reflect the influence exerted by the emergence of a second national core centered on the large metropolitan areas along the Pacific Coast, especially those of the Los Angeles and Bay Area conurbations in California. Although of different character, this burgeoning concentration of population, economic activity, and cultural influence may reflect the development of a West Coast Megalopolis that could soon rival the original Megalopolis of the Northeastern Corridor. Today, the U.S. population distribution is largely a bicoastal one. This article documents the emergence of this bicoastal population distribution. Using historical census data and GIS technology, we present a number of novel ways to graphically portray and examine this population redistribution phenomenon. The United States is not unique in witnessing an increasing share of its inhabitants clustering in coastal zones. Current critical policy concerns about the worldwide vulnerability of coastal populations have focused the need for better coastal population estimates and better mapping methods for portraying population redistribution trends. CR *ESRI, 2004, ARCGIS 9 *UN ENV PROGR, 2005, PHYS ALT DESTR HAB P *US CENS BUR, 1924, STAT ATL US 1924 *US CENS BUR, 1950, CENS POP *US CENS BUR, 1960, CENS POP *US CENS BUR, 1970, CENS POP *US CENS BUR, 1980, CENS POP *US CENS BUR, 1990, CENS POP *US CENS BUR, 2000, CENS POP *US CENS BUR, 2001, CTR POP COMP 1950 19 *US CENS BUR, 2001, MEAN CTR POP US 1790 *US CENS BUR, 2001, MED CTR POP US 1880 ABOUFADEL E, 2006, PROF GEOGR, V58, P65 COHEN JE, 1997, SCIENCE, V278, P1211 FREY WH, 1990, POPULATION B, V45, P1 GOTTMANN J, 1961, MEGALOPOLIS URBANIZE KIRSCH SL, 1993, CALIFORNIA GEOGRAPHE, V63, P59 MCHUGH KE, 1992, J REGIONAL SCI, V32, P428 NICHOLLS RJ, 1995, GEOJOURNAL, V37, P369 NICHOLLS RJ, 2002, EOS T AM GEOPHYS UN, V83, P301 NICHOLLS RJ, 2002, EOS T AM GEOPHYS UN, V83, P305 OTTOBLIESNER BL, 2006, SCIENCE, V311, P1751 PLANE DA, 1983, SOCIO ECON PLAN SCI, V17, P251 PLANE DA, 1984, ECON GEOGR, V60, P294 PLANE DA, 1989, INT REGIONAL SCI REV, V12, P263 PLANE DA, 1994, GEOGRAPHICAL ANAL PO PLANE DA, 1999, PROF GEOGR, V51, P1 PLANE DA, 2005, YB ASS PACIFIC COAST, V67, P9 RAPPAPORT J, 2003, J ECON GROWTH, V8, P5 ROSEMAN CC, 1982, URBAN GEOGR, V3, P22 SMALL C, 2000, ENV GEOSCIENCES, V7, P3 SMALL C, 2003, J COASTAL RES, V19, P584 SWANSON DA, 2004, METHODS MAT DEMOGRAP TIMMERMAN P, 1997, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V7, P205 TURNER RK, 1996, ENVIRON MANAGE, V20, P159 ULLMAN E, 1958, PAPERS P REGIONAL SC, V4, P179 NR 36 TC 0 J9 PROF GEOGR BP 448 EP 459 PY 2006 PD NOV VL 58 IS 4 GA 096HV UT ISI:000241369100008 ER PT J AU Hurd, BH Leary, N Jones, R Smith, JB TI Relative regional vulnerability of water resources to climate change SO JOURNAL OF THE AMERICAN WATER RESOURCES ASSOCIATION LA English DT Article C1 Stratus Consulting Inc, Boulder, CO 80306 USA. IPCC Working Grp 2, Washington, DC 20024 USA. RP Hurd, BH, Stratus Consulting Inc, POB 4059, Boulder, CO 80306 USA. AB Changes in global climate may alter hydrologic conditions and have a variety of effects on human settlements and ecological systems. The effects include changes in water supply and quality for domestic, irrigation, recreational, commercial, and industrial uses; in instream flows that support aquatic ecosystems, recreation uses, hydropower, navigation, and wastewater assimilation; in wetland extent and productivity that support fish, wildlife, and wastewater assimilation; and in the frequency and severity of floods. Watersheds where water resources are stressed under current climate are most likely to be vulnerable to changes in mean climate-and extreme events. This study identified key aspects of water supply and use that could be adversely affected by climate change, developed measures and criteria useful for assessing the vulnerability of regional water resources and water dependent resources to climate change, developed a regional database of water sensitive variables consistent with the vulnerability measures, and applied the criteria in a regional study of the vulnerability of U.S. water resources. Key findings highlight the vulnerability of consumptive uses in the western and, in particular, the southwestern United States. However, southern United States watersheds are relatively more vulnerable to changes in water quality, flooding, and other instream uses. CR *US EPA, 1997, EPA841R97010 OFF WAT FLOOD PK, 1990, WATER RIGHT 50 STATE, CH5 FREDERICK KD, 1999, WATER GLOBAL CLIMATE GLEICK PH, 1990, CLIMATE CHANGE US WA, P223 HOUGHTON JT, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995 HURD BH, 1998, IMPACT CLIMATE CHANG, P133 HURD BH, 1999, WATER CLIMATE CHANGE LANE ME, IN PRESS ASCE J WATE ROGERS P, 1997, MEASURING ENV QUALIT WIGLEY TML, 1999, SCI CLIMATE CHANGE G NR 10 TC 4 J9 J AM WATER RESOUR ASSOC BP 1399 EP 1409 PY 1999 PD DEC VL 35 IS 6 GA 271ZB UT ISI:000084624600010 ER PT J AU Rounsevell, MDA Berry, PM Harrison, PA TI Future environmental change impacts on rural land use and biodiversity: a synthesis of the ACCELERATES project SO ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE & POLICY LA English DT Article C1 Univ Catholique Louvain, Dept Geog, B-1348 Louvain, Belgium. Univ Oxford, Ctr Environm, Environm Change Inst, Oxford OX1 3QY, England. RP Rounsevell, MDA, Univ Catholique Louvain, Dept Geog, Pl Pasteur 3, B-1348 Louvain, Belgium. AB The ACCELERATES project aimed to assess the vulnerability of European agro-ecosystems to environmental change in support of the conventions of climate change and biological diversity. This was based on a study of the impact of environmental change on land use and biodiversity (for selected species and habitats) in agro-ecosystems. The approach integrated existing models of agricultural land use, species distribution and habitat fragmentation within a common scenario framework, so that impacts could be synthesised for different global change problems. The results suggest that policy and conservation strategies should not tackle the vulnerability of agriculture and biodiversity independently. Potential changes within one sector may have important opportunities for another sector that policy could fail to exploit, or positive outcomes in one sector could have adverse effects elsewhere. For example, there are potential benefits to conservation management that arise from agricultural land abandonment or extensification. However, agricultural land abandonment increases the vulnerability of farmers. Society, through policy, will need, therefore, to resolve the conflicts that are likely to arise between agriculture and the conservation of biodiversity in the future. The scientific community can contribute to this process by seeking to reduce the uncertainties that bedevil future environmental change assessments, through the development of better and more integrated methods (of modelling and scenario development) to analyse and interpret cross-sectoral vulnerability. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *IPCC, 2001, CLIM CHANG 2001 SCI ABILDTRUP J, 2006, ENVIRON SCI POLICY, V9, P101 ALCAMO J, SEARCHING FUTURE LAN, CH8 ARAUJO MB, 2005, GLOBAL CHANGE BIOL, V11, P1504 AUDSLEY E, 2006, ENVIRON SCI POLICY, V9, P148 BERRY PM, 2005, CLIMATE CHANGE NATUR BERRY PM, 2006, ENVIRON SCI POLICY, V9, P189 CARTER TR, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, P145 DELBARRIO G, 2000, 5 C NAC MED AMB COM, P1 DELBARRIO G, 2006, ENVIRON SCI POLICY, V9, P129 DRUCKER GRF, 2000, ECNC TECHNICAL REPOR, V9 ERHARD M, 2002, TECHNICAL NOTE ACCOM EWERT F, 2005, AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON, V107, P101 GIUPPONI C, 2006, ENVIRON SCI POLICY, V9, P163 HARRISON PA, 2006, ENVIRON SCI POLICY, V9, P116 HOFFMANN LB, 2000, EUROPEAN CTR NATURE, V16 HOLMAN IP, 2005, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V71, P43 HOLMAN IP, 2005, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V71, P9 LAMBIN EF, 2000, AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON, V82, P321 MITCHELL TD, 2004, 55 TYND CTR NAKICENOVIC N, 2000, SPECIAL REPORT EMISS PARMESAN C, 2003, NATURE, V421, P37 PEARSON RG, 2002, ECOL MODEL, V154, P289 PEARSON RG, 2003, GLOBAL ECOL BIOGEOGR, V12, P361 PEARSON RG, 2004, ECOGRAPHY, V27, P285 PEARSON RG, 2005, BIOL CONSERV, V123, P389 ROGERS C, 2004, ENV LAW REV, V6, P69 ROUNSEVELL MDA, IN PRESS AGR ECOSYST ROUNSEVELL MDA, 2003, AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON, V95, P465 ROUNSEVELL MDA, 2005, AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON, V107, P117 SCHMIT C, 2006, ENVIRON SCI POLICY, V9, P174 NR 31 TC 2 J9 ENVIRON SCI POLICY BP 93 EP 100 PY 2006 VL 9 IS 2 GA 028TG UT ISI:000236511100001 ER PT J AU White, N Sutherst, RW Hall, N Whish-Wilson, P TI The vulnerability of the Australian beef industry to impacts of the cattle tick (Boophilus microplus) under climate change SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 Univ Queensland, CRC Trop Pest Management, Brisbane, Qld 4072, Australia. Australian Bur Agr Resource Econ, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia. RP White, N, Univ S Pacific, Dept Biol, POB 1168, Suva, Fiji. AB An integrated assessment is presented of the potential impacts of the cattle tick (Boophilus microplus Canestrini) on the Australian beef industry under climate change. The project was carried out as a case study to test an impact assessment approach that was designed to integrate biological, production and socio-economic impacts on managed and natural systems. A climate-driven, tick population model was run for European, zebu and crossbred cattle breeds having different levels of resistance to cattle ticks. A geographical information system (GIS) was used to organise spatial data on climate scenarios and industry statistics and to undertake regional analyses. A comparison was made of the two available approaches to conducting impact assessments, namely a bottom-up approach using sensitivity analysis and a top-down approach using climate change scenarios from a global circulation model (GCM) (CSIRO, 1996). The output, in terms of the abundance of tick populations and reductions in cattle productivity for each breed showed significant expansions in potential geographical impacts. In the absence of any adaptation measures, the results indicated changes in the losses in live weight gain of cattle tick ranging from 7780 tonnes per year by 2030 to 21637 tonnes per year by 2100, in comparison with estimates for current losses of 6594 tonnes per year. The principal adaptation options available to the beef industry are to switch to breeds that are more resistant to cattle ticks, or to increase the frequency of treatments with various tick control products. In this paper we focus on switching breeds as an adaptive measure when appropriate damage thresholds are triggered under the climate change scenarios. When adaptation measures were put in place, the losses ranged from 4962 tonnes in 2030 to 5619 tonnes in 2100 compared with 2636 tonnes at present if all producers adopted the optimal breed structure. Optimal breed structure was defined as one that would prevent tick numbers per animal exceeding 100 ticks per animal for European and 700 ticks per animal for crossbred breeds of cattle in any week of the year under a tick control strategy that was suitable for present climatic conditions. The lower threshold for European breeds reflects their vulnerability to explosive increases in numbers because of their low resistance to ticks. The results of the analyses using the GCM scenarios were used in an economic model to calculate costs of lost live-weight gain for 2030, 2070 and 2100. The greatest increases in costs were incurred in the southern parts of the current distribution in Queensland and potentially in northern New South Wales if the present quarantine barrier failed. Given the great uncertainty of the nature of possible regional changes in climate, analyses of the sensitivity of losses in live weight gain to changes in climatic variables were also undertaken. The analyses included a measure of likely impacts of cattle tick on the beef cattle industry, in the absence of adaptation measures, as a baseline measure of sensitivity. The likely impacts on crossbred cattle were insensitive to the climatic variables. When adaptive breed changes were allowed, the economic impacts on the industry were insensitive to the GCM scenarios. This suggests that, at least in this instance, reducing the uncertainties in climate change scenarios is not a priority if the adaptation strategies can be implemented in a cost-effective manner. Finally we made a qualitative assessment of the sustainability and robustness of alternative approaches to adaptation and assessed regional vulnerability to cattle tick under climate change. The conclusions were so strongly dependent on assumptions about the future of other global changes, in particular the ability to maintain quarantine barriers and to retain effective acaricides at comparable costs to the present, that we strongly recommend that risk assessments of climate change extend to all relevant variables in involved in global change where possible. 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It reviews what is known, unknown, uncertain and controversial about the potential impacts of climate change and finds that: the composition and geographic distribution of many ecosystems will shift; some regions, especially in the tropics and subtropics, may suffer significantly adverse consequences for food security, even though the effects of climate change on global food production may prove small to moderate; there could be an increase in a wide range of human diseases, including mortality, and illnes due to heat waves and extreme weather events, extensions in the potential transmission of vector-borne diseases, such as malaria, and regional declines in nutritional status; some countries will face threats to sustainable development from losses of human habitat due to sea-level rise, reductions in water quality and quantity, and disruptions from extreme events; technological advances have increased the range of adaptation and mitigation options, and offer exciting opportunities for reducing emissions, but are not currently available in all regions of the world. CR DOWNING TE, 1992, CLIMATE CHANGE VULNE EASTERLING WE, 1993, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V24, P23 NR 2 TC 0 BP 1 EP 878 PY 1996 VL 1 ER PT J AU HAQUE, CE TI HUMAN ADJUSTMENTS TO RIVER BANK EROSION HAZARD IN THE JAMUNA FLOODPLAIN, BANGLADESH SO HUMAN ECOLOGY LA English DT Article C1 UNIV MANITOBA,DEPT GEOG,WINNIPEG R3T 2N2,MANITOBA,CANADA. CR *BANGL BUR STAT, 1984, 1981 BANGL POP CENS *BANGL BUR STAT, 1984, STAT YB BANGL 1983 1 BURTON I, 1978, ENV HAZARD, V1, P1 CHOWDHURY MI, 1973, J BANGLADESH NATIONA, V1, P19 COLEMAN JM, 1969, SEDIMENT GEOL, V3, P129 CURREY B, 1979, THESIS U HAWAII HONO DIXON C, 1978, SAMPLING METHODS GEO HAQUE CE, 1985, WORKSHOP IMPACT RIVE HAQUE CE, 1988, GEOGR REV, V78, P20 HOQUE N, 1983, LANSAT IMAGE PROCESS ISLAM MA, 1974, NATURAL HAZARDS LOCA ISLAM MA, 1980, NATIONAL GEOGRAPHICA, V26, P50 JANNUZI FT, 1980, AGRARIAN STRUCTURE B KATES RW, 1971, ECON GEOGR, V47, P438 KATES RW, 1986, GEOGRAPHY RESOURCES, V1 KHAN AR, 1985, WORKSHOP IMPACT RIVE KISH L, 1965, SURVEY SAMPLING NAGPAUL H, 1984, INDIAN J SOC RES, V25, P68 PAUL BK, 1984, HUM ECOL, V12, P3 RALPH KA, 1975, THESIS U HAWAII HONO RAMCHANDARAN R, 1974, NATURAL HAZARDS LOCA ROGGE JR, 1987, ANN M ASS AM GEOGRAP ROWNTREE RA, 1974, NATURAL HAZARDS LOCA TARAFDAR MR, 1974, STUDIES BANGLADESH G ZAMAN MQ, 1982, S ASIAN ANTHR, V3, P39 NR 25 TC 3 J9 HUM ECOL BP 421 EP 437 PY 1988 PD DEC VL 16 IS 4 GA AC273 UT ISI:A1988AC27300004 ER PT J AU Panario, D Pineiro, G TI Vulnerability of oceanic dune systems under wind pattern change scenarios in Uruguay SO CLIMATE RESEARCH LA English DT Article C1 Univ Republica, Fac Ciencias, Unidad Ciencias Epigenesis, Montevideo, Uruguay. RP Panario, D, Univ Republica, Fac Ciencias, Unidad Ciencias Epigenesis, Tristan Narvaja 1674, Montevideo, Uruguay. AB The dynamics of the large dune systems adjacent to lowlands and to the oceanic coastline in Uruguay is likely to be affected both by sea level rise and wind circulation patterns. A simple eolian sand transport model, which relates wind friction, frequency and direction to sand transport, was used to estimate annual sand transport as a measure of the impact of potential climate changes on the stability of dune systems and beaches. The model was adjusted to local conditions using real wind-matrix and eolian-transport data from the past 5 decades. The climate change scenarios considered assume a positive or negative 10% change in the frequency of the South Atlantic Anticyclone winds, since its position determines the near-surface wind circulation pattern. Results obtained at the Cabo Polonio study area indicate that, in the medium and long term, coastal recession is likely to occur due to a decrease in coastal dunefield activity induced by changes in wind pattern. It was also observed that, should current anthropogenic impact in the area remain unchanged, the situation would be equally serious even under a non-climate-change scenario. This is due to the fact that the forestation process that has taken place over the past 20 yr has caused the immobilization of a significant portion of the dune system, preventing natural sand transfer to the coast. In recent years a still insufficient deforestation effort, intended to stop coastline recession, has taken place. CR *NAT RES COUNC, 1994, OC ROL GLOB CHANG ANTON D, 1974, 28 C BRAS GEOL PORT, V3, P151 BAGNOLD RA, 1941, PHYSICS BLOWN SAND D BROOKFIELD M, 1970, Z GEOMORPHOL S, V10, P121 CASTEL IIY, 1988, EARTH SURF PROCESSES, V13, P501 CHAPMAN DM, 1990, EARTH SURF PROCESSES, V15, P751 DINGLER JR, 1992, SEDIMENTOLOGY, V39, P1031 FRYBERGER SG, 1979, US GEOLOGICAL SURVEY, V1052, P137 FRYBERGER SG, 1984, SEDIMENTOLOGY, V31, P413 HESP PA, 1990, COASTAL DUNES FORM P, P253 HSU SA, 1973, J GEOL, V81, P739 HUNTER RE, 1983, GEOL SOC AM BULL, V94, P1450 IRIONDO MH, 1993, PALAEOGEOGR PALAEOCL, V101, P209 LEATHERMAN SP, 1978, SEDIMENTOLOGY, V25, P303 LETTAU K, 1969, Z GEOMORPHOL, V13, P182 NORDSTROM KF, 1992, SEDIMENTOLOGY, V39, P769 PANARIO D, 1992, DINAMICA SEDIMENTARI PLUIS JLA, 1992, EARTH SURF PROCESSES, V17, P663 PYE K, 1993, GEOLOGICAL SOC SPECI, V72 SARRE RD, 1989, EARTH SURF PROCESSES, V14, P247 SVASEK JN, 1974, SEDIMENTOLOGY, V21, P311 NR 21 TC 1 J9 CLIMATE RES BP 67 EP 72 PY 1997 PD DEC 29 VL 9 IS 1-2 GA ZD200 UT ISI:000072661400011 ER PT J AU Janssen, MA Schoon, ML Ke, WM Borner, K TI Scholarly networks on resilience, vulnerability and adaptation within the human dimensions of global environmental change SO GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS LA English DT Article C1 Arizona State Univ, Sch Human Evolut & Social Change, Tempe, AZ 85287 USA. Arizona State Univ, Dept Comp Sci & Engn, Tempe, AZ 85287 USA. Indiana Univ, Workshop Polit Theory & Policy Anal, Bloomington, IN 47405 USA. Indiana Univ, Sch Publ & Environm Affairs, Bloomington, IN 47405 USA. Indiana Univ, Sch Lib & Environm Sci, Bloomington, IN 47405 USA. RP Janssen, MA, Arizona State Univ, Sch Human Evolut & Social Change, Box 872402, Tempe, AZ 85287 USA. AB This paper presents the results of a bibliometric analysis of the knowledge domains resilience, vulnerability and adaptation within the research activities on human dimensions of global environmental change. We analyzed how 2286 publications between 1967 and 2005 are related in terms of co-authorship relations, and citation relations. The number of publications in the three knowledge domains increased rapidly between 1995 and 2005. However, the resilience knowledge domain is only weakly connected with the other two domains in terms of co-authorships and citations. The resilience knowledge domain has a background in ecology and mathematics with a focus on theoretical models, while the vulnerability and adaptation knowledge domains have a background in geography and natural hazards research with a focus on case studies and climate change research. There is an increasing number of cross citations and papers classified in multiple knowledge domains. This seems to indicate an increasing integration of the different knowledge domains. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR ADGER WN, 1999, WORLD DEV, V27, P249 ADGER WN, 2000, PROG HUM GEOG, V24, P347 ADGER WN, 2006, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V16, P268 ARROW K, 1995, SCIENCE, V268, P520 BATAGELJ V, 1997, PAJEK PROGRAM PACKAG BERKES F, 1998, LINKING SOCIAL ECOLO, V1, P1 BERKES F, 2003, NAVIGATING SOCIAL EC, V1, P1 BLAIKIE P, 1987, LAND DEGRADATION SOC BLAIKIE PM, 1994, RISK NATURAL HAZARDS, V1, P1 BOHLE HG, 1994, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V4, P37 BORNER K, 2003, ANNU REV INFORM SCI, V37, P179 BOYACK KW, 2004, SAND20042779J SAND N BURTON I, 1978, ENV HAZARD, V1, P1 BUTZER KW, 1980, PROF GEOGR, V32, P269 CARPENTER SR, 2001, ECOSYSTEMS, V4, P765 CARPENTER SR, 1999, ECOL APPL, V9, P751 CHAMBERS R, 1989, IDS B, V20, P1 CLARK WC, 1985, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V7, P5 COSTANZA R, 1997, NATURE, V387, P253 CUTTER SL, 1996, PROG HUM GEOG, V20, P529 CUTTER SL, 2003, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V93, P1 DOW KM, 1992, GEOFORUM, V23, P417 EASTERLING WE, 1996, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V80, P1 FOLKE C, 2006, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V16, P253 FRIEDEL MH, 1991, J RANGE MANAGE, V44, P422 GALLOPIN GC, 2006, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V16, P293 GARFIELD E, 2004, J INFORM SCI, V30, P119 GUIMERA R, 2005, SCIENCE, V308, P697 GUNDERSON LH, 1995, BARRIERS BRIDGES REN, V1, P1 GUNDERSON LH, 2000, ANNU REV ECOL SYST, V31, P425 GUNDERSON LH, 2002, PANARCHY UNDERSTANDI, V1, P1 HARDIN G, 1968, SCIENCE, V162, P1243 HEWITT K, 1997, REGIONS RISK GEOGRAP, V1, P1 HOLLING CS, 1973, ANNUAL REV ECOLOGY S, V4, P1 HOLLING CS, 1978, ADAPTIVE ENV ASSESSM HOLLING CS, 1986, SUSTAINABLE DEV BIOS, V1, P1 HOLLING CS, 1992, ECOL MONOGR, V62, P447 HOLLING CS, 1996, CONSERV BIOL, V10, P328 HOLLING CS, 1996, ENG ECOLOGICAL CONST, P31 IONESCU C, 2006, IN PRESS ENV MODELIN KASPERSON JX, 1995, REGIONS RISK, V1, P1 KATES RW, 2001, SCIENCE, V292, P641 KELLY PM, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V47, P325 KLEIN RJT, 1999, AMBIO, V28, P182 LAYCOCK WA, 1991, J RANGE MANAGE, V44, P426 LEVIN SA, 1992, ECOLOGY, V73, P1943 LIVERMAN DM, 1990, UNDERSTANDING GLOBAL, V1, P27 LUDWIG D, 1978, J ANIM ECOL, V47, P315 LUDWIG D, 1993, SCIENCE, V260, P17 MAY RM, 1977, NATURE, V269, P471 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 OSTROM E, 1990, GOVERNING COMMONS EV PETERSON GD, 1998, ECOSYSTEMS, V1, P6 PIMM SL, 1984, NATURE, V307, P321 RAPPAPORT RA, 1967, PIGS ANCESTORS RITUA, V1, P1 RAPPAPORT RA, 1977, EVOLUTION SOCIAL SYS, V1, P49 REILLY JM, 1994, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V4, P24 RIBOT JC, 1996, CLIMATE VARIABILITY, V1, P1 ROSENBERG NJ, 1992, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V21, P385 ROSENZWEIG C, 1994, NATURE, V367, P133 SCHEFFER M, 2001, NATURE, V413, P591 SCHNEIDER SH, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P203 SEN AK, 1981, POVERTY FAMINES ESSA, V1, P1 SHIFFRIN RM, 2004, P NATL ACAD SCI U S1, V101, P5183 SMIT B, 1996, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V33, P7 SMIT B, 1999, MITIGATION ADAPTATIO, V4, P199 SMIT B, 2006, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V16, P282 SMITH JB, 1996, CLIMATE RES, V6, P193 SMIT B, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P223 SMITHERS J, 1997, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V7, P129 SWIFT J, 1989, IDS B, V20, P8 TIMMERMAN P, 1981, ENV MONOGRAPH I ENV, V1, P1 TOL RSJ, 1998, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V8, P109 VITOUSEK PM, 1997, SCIENCE, V277, P494 WALKER BH, 1981, J ECOL, V69, P473 WALTERS CJ, 1986, ADAPTIVE MANAGEMENT WALTERS CJ, 1990, ECOLOGY, V71, P2060 WATSON RT, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, V1, P1 WATSON RT, 1998, REGIONAL IMPACTS CLI, V1, P1 WATTS MJ, 1993, PROG HUM GEOG, V17, P43 WESTOBY M, 1989, J RANGE MANAGE, V42, P266 WHITE GF, 1975, ASSESSMENT RES NATUR, V1, P1 NR 82 TC 4 J9 GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANGE BP 240 EP 252 PY 2006 PD AUG VL 16 IS 3 GA 073OJ UT ISI:000239752200003 ER PT J AU Kottak, CP TI An anthropological take on sustainable development: A comparative study of change SO HUMAN ORGANIZATION LA English DT Article C1 Univ Michigan, Dept Anthropol, Ann Arbor, MI 48109 USA. RP Kottak, CP, Univ Michigan, Dept Anthropol, Ann Arbor, MI 48109 USA. AB Anthropologists can use longitudinal, comparative, and multiscale research to illuminate aspects of global change and development. Goals and procedures of the emerging field of sustainability science are examined here in relation to those of the linkages methodology and other multisited, historical, and transnational approaches in recent anthropology. Conclusions about the sustainability of development emerge from field studies in Arembepe, Brazil, and Ivato, Madagascar. The contrasts between Arembepe and Ivato, and the regions and nations that include them, are sharp and almost certainly irreversible. Madagascar suffers from an overdose of environmentalism, while Brazil has been dominated by developmental ism. Arembepe now has a sustainable diversified economy and cultural contacts linking its future with the dynamics of capitalist globalization. Ivato, by contrast, is in a region and nation with dramatically increasing population and diminishing natural resources but no investment stream to provide significant employment alternatives. In future years Ivato and similar farming communities may have little left of their past to sustain. CR *MILL CHEM, 2002, RESP CAR REP BAH BRA *WORLD BANK, 2003, WORLD DEV IND BURN BE, 1980, HIST BRAZIL EPSTEIN AL, 1978, CRAFT SOCIAL ANTHROP GLUCKMAN M, 1940, BANTU STUDIES, V14, P1 GOLD MV, 1999, SUST AGR DEF TERM GUPTA A, 1997, ANTHROPOLOGICAL LOCA GUPTA A, 1997, CULTURE POWER PLACE GUPTA A, 1997, CULTURE POWER PLACE, P33 KATES RW, 2001, SCIENCE, V292, P641 KECK A, 1994, POPULATION GROWTH SH KOTTAK C, 1994, ASSESSING CULTURAL A, P396 KOTTAK CP, 1980, PAST PRESENT HIST EC KOTTAK CP, 1990, PRIME TIME SOC ANTHR KOTTAK CP, 1993, HUM ORGAN, V52, P335 KOTTAK CP, 1994, 940005 CIESIN KOTTAK CP, 1999, AM ANTHROPOL, V101, P23 KOTTAK CP, 1999, ASSAULT PARADISE SOC LEVISTRAUSS C, 1967, STRUCTURAL ANTHROPOL MINTZ S, 1985, SWEETNESS POWER PLAC ROACH J, 2004, RARE ANIMALS AFRICA ROSEBERRY W, 1988, ANNU REV ANTHROPOL, V17, P161 STEWARD J, 1950, AREA RES THEORY PRAC STEWARD J, 1955, THEORY CULTURE CHANG STEWARD J, 1956, PEOPLE PUERTO RICO VANVELSEN J, 1979, CRAFT SOCIAL ANTHROL, P129 WOLF E, 1969, PEASANT WARS 29 CENT WOLF E, 1982, EUROPE PEOPLE HIST NR 28 TC 0 J9 HUM ORGAN BP 501 EP 510 PY 2004 PD WIN VL 63 IS 4 GA 880MX UT ISI:000225795000011 ER PT J AU Tal, A Linkov, I TI Role of comparative risk assessment in addressing environmental security in the Middle East SO RISK ANALYSIS LA English DT Article C1 Cambridge Environm Inc, Cambridge, MA 02141 USA. RP Linkov, I, Cambridge Environm Inc, 58 Charles St, Cambridge, MA 02141 USA. AB During the 21st century, environmental challenges are likely to intensify across the world and possibly lead to violent conflicts. Strategies for conflict avoidance will be incomplete unless they recognize, discuss, and mitigate regional environmental stress factors. Comparative risk assessment (CRA) is one of the most critical tools emerging to influence modern environmental policies and is increasingly used to create a common language to help reconcile competing interests in development and environmental disputes around the world. This article considers the environmental challenges facing the Middle East in light of their "transboundary" nature and proposes CRA as a framework for setting environmental priorities and reducing tensions in the region. CR 2002, COMP RISK PROJECT *ECOPEACE, 1997, UPD INV NEW DEV PROJ *IDRC, 1998, ALT APPR MAN CONFL O *ISR MIN ENV, 2003, RISK ASS AIR POLL TE *JAP MIN FOR AFF, 1999, WORK GROUP ENV GRAV *NETH MIN FOR AFF, 1996, GAZ ENV PROF *PAL ENV QUAL AUTH, 2002, 1 PAL NAT REP SUST *UNDP, 2002, SUST DEV *US AID, 1994, 3980355 USAID *US EPA, 1993, GUID COMP RISKS SETT *US WAT NEWS, 2002, JORD SEEKS COOP ISR *WORLD BANK, 1998, POLL PREV AB HDB CLE AMERY HA, 2000, WATER MIDDLE E GEOGR ANDREWS CJ, 2002, HUMBLE ANAL PRACTICE ASSAF K, 1997, OUR SHARED ENV, P292 BECKER N, 1996, INT J WATER RESOUR D, V12, P17 BELLISARI A, 1994, J PALESTINE STUD, V23, P52 DAVIES JC, 1996, COMP ENV RISKS TOOLS FINKEL A, 1995, WORST THINGS 1 DEBAT FISHER FM, 1995, WATER RESOURCES DEV, V11, P377 GABBAY S, 2002, ENV ISRAEL GARB Y, 1997, T ISRAEL HIGHWAY DO GASITH A, 1999, ANNU REV ECOL SYST, V30, P51 GUTENSON D, 1997, DUKE ENV LAW POLICY, V8, P69 HIERLMEIER J, 2002, GEORGETOWN INT ENV L, V14, P767 HIRSCH M, 1994, ISRAEL LAW REV, V28, P374 HOMERDIXON TF, 1991, INT SECURITY, V16, P76 HOSEIN H, 1999, DYING DEAD SEA JONES K, 1997, RETROSPECTIVE 10 YEA KELLEY LA, 1997, IN SESSION-PSYCHOTH, V3, P5 KONISKY DM, 1999, COMP RISK PROJECTS M LINKOV I, 2004, COMP RISK ASSESSMENT LIVING L, 2001, JORDAN RIVER THREATE MOREL B, UNPUB ENV SECURITY M MYERS N, 1989, FOREIGN POLICY, P23 NAFF T, 1984, WATER MIDDLE E COOPE ROSEN D, 2002, LITTORAL CHANGING CO SCOTT GL, 1995, ILSA J INT COMP L, V2, P23 SULTAN A, 2000, JORDAN IND JOINT GAT TAL A, 1995, SUSTAINABILITY ENERG TAL A, 1997, ENV FORUM, V14, P13 TAL A, 1997, ENVIRON SCI TECHNOL, V30, P470 TAL A, 1997, JERUSALEM REPOR 1030 TALITMAN D, 2003, NEW YORK U ENV LAW J, V11, P414 TITUS JG, 1990, LAND USE POLICY, V7, P138 TROLLDALEN JM, 1997, NATURAL RESOURCES FO, V21, P101 YARON D, 1994, RESOUR ENERGY ECON, V16, P271 NR 47 TC 0 J9 RISK ANAL BP 1243 EP 1248 PY 2004 PD OCT VL 24 IS 5 GA 875ML UT ISI:000225424400015 ER PT J AU Fowler, HJ Kilsby, CG O'Connell, PE TI Modeling the impacts of climatic change and variability on the reliability, resilience, and vulnerability of a water resource system SO WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH LA English DT Article C1 Univ Newcastle Upon Tyne, Water Resource Syst Res Lab, Sch Civil Engn & Geosci, Newcastle Upon Tyne NE1 7RU, Tyne & Wear, England. RP Fowler, HJ, Univ Newcastle Upon Tyne, Water Resource Syst Res Lab, Sch Civil Engn & Geosci, Cassie Bldg, Newcastle Upon Tyne NE1 7RU, Tyne & Wear, England. AB [1] During the last decade, there have been increasing concerns over water resource drought in northern England, brought about by the 1995 Yorkshire drought with an estimated 5-month rainfall return period of 200 years. The impacts of climatic change and variability on water resource reliability, resilience, and vulnerability in this region are examined by modeling changes to weather type frequency, mean rainfall statistics, and potential evapotranspiration. Results indicate future improvements in water resource reliability due to increased winter rainfall but reductions in resource resilience and an increased vulnerability to drought. Severe droughts comparable to that of 1995 show only a slight increase in frequency by 2080. However, there are significant increases in both the magnitude and duration of severe water resource drought, as a consequence of summer rainfall reductions and increased climatic variability. This research provides a basis for the future planning and management of the Yorkshire water resource system. CR *ASCE TASK COMM SU, 1998, SUST CRIT WAT RES SY *DEP ENV WELSH OFF, 1996, WAT RES SUPPL AG ACT BRYANT SJ, 1994, J INST WATER ENV MAN, V8, P39 COWPERTWAIT PSP, 1996, J HYDROL, V175, P17 COWPERTWAIT PSP, 1996, J HYDROL, V175, P47 DOORENBOS J, 1984, 24 FAO IRR DUAN QY, 1992, WATER RESOUR RES, V28, P1015 FOWLER HJ, 2000, HYDROL EARTH SYST SC, V4, P263 FOWLER HJ, 2002, INT J CLIMATOL, V22, P843 FOWLER HJ, 2002, J HYDROL, V262, P177 HASHIMOTO T, 1982, WATER RESOUR RES, V18, P14 HASHIMOTO T, 1982, WATER RESOUR RES, V18, P21 HEWETT BAO, 1993, ENG CLIMATE CHANGE, P38 HULME M, 1998, 1 UKCIP CLIM RES UN HULME M, 2002, CLIMATE CHANGE SCENA HURRELL JW, 1995, SCIENCE, V269, P676 JENKINSON AF, 1977, 62 BRACKN MET OFF SY JONES PD, 1997, INT J CLIMATOL, V17, P1433 KAY PA, 2000, WATER INT, V25, P617 LAMB HH, 1972, 116 HER MAJ STN OFF LANE ME, 1999, J WATER RES PL-ASCE, V125, P194 LETTENMAIER DP, 1999, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V43, P537 MACDONALD M, 1996, 35894BA011B YORKSH W MACDONALD M, 1997, 39413BA011B YORKSH W MAIER HR, 2001, WATER RESOUR RES, V37, P779 MARSH TJ, 1996, P I CIVIL ENG-WATER, V118, P189 MARSH TJ, 1996, WEATHER, V51, P46 MAYES JC, 1995, J CHART INST WATER E, V9, P531 NEW M, 1999, J CLIMATE, V12, P829 NEW M, 2000, J CLIMATE, V13, P2217 TODINI E, 1996, J HYDROL, V175, P339 VOGEL RM, 1999, J WATER RES PL-ASCE, V125, P245 WALKER S, 1998, P I CIVIL ENG-WATER, V130, P207 WARDLAW RB, 1996, J CHART INST WATER E, V10, P355 WEDGBROW CS, 2002, INT J CLIMATOL, V22, P219 WOOD AW, 1997, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V37, P203 NR 36 TC 0 J9 WATER RESOUR RES PY 2003 PD AUG 28 VL 39 IS 8 GA 720HJ UT ISI:000185255100003 ER PT J AU O'Hare, G TI Hurricane 07B in the Godavari Delta, Andhra Pradesh, India: vulnerability, mitigation and the spatial impact SO GEOGRAPHICAL JOURNAL LA English DT Article C1 Univ Derby, Div Geog, Derby DE22 1GB, England. RP O'Hare, G, Univ Derby, Div Geog, Kedleston Rd, Derby DE22 1GB, England. AB Few hurricane impact studies provide robust spatial parameters of damage or relate geographical patterns of destruction accurately to storm trajectories or agencies. A detailed spatial analysis is, therefore, presented of the destruction caused by tropical hurricane 07B which made landfall on 6/7 November 1996 over the Godavari Delta region, Andhra Pradesh, eastern India. Patterns of destruction by storm surge, wind and flood water are quantitatively mapped for death tolls, house destruction and agricultural damage using local administrative (mandal) data bases. Results show that most impact occurred near the coast, but a well-defined path of destruction across the central part of the delta can be identified. Such mapping studies fail to indicate the types of individuals and social groups most affected by the storm hazard and their response to it. An investigation of landowning farmers, female migrant rural labourers and fishing communities in the delta shows that poverty and social ordering in Indian society puts differential limits on the risk reduction abilities of individuals and social groups in the face of the cyclone hazard. The paper also demonstrates that 'top down' institutional measures to reduce the effects of storm damage such as those introduced in the aftermath of hurricane 07B, including early storm warning and evacuation procedures and rehabilitation programmes, remain largely ineffective. It is suggested that the introduction of more 'bottom up' community-based programmes which seek to improve the risk awareness and risk avoiding abilities of affected individuals and groups would be much more beneficial. The case material on hurricane 07B and its effects are placed in context by reviewing and updating long and medium-term time series records of storm frequencies and impacts in the Bay of Bengal and particularly along the eastern coastline of India. 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RP Wilbanks, TJ, Oak Ridge Natl Lab, Div Environm Sci, Oak Ridge, TN 37831 USA. AB This paper reports on investigations of two propositions. First, it is easy to overestimate the importance of climate change in the larger picture of sustainable development while at the same time underestimating the potential for climate change concerns to be a catalyst for progress toward sustainable development. Second, these imbalances in perceptions are more likely to be addressed effectively at a local scale than at a global or national scale. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *AAG, 2003, GLOB CHANG LOC PLAC *HADL CTR, 2000, REG CLIM SIM *IPCC, 1994, TECHN GUID ASS CLIM MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 *NACC, 2000, CLIM CHANG IMP US PO *NAS, 1999, OUR COMM JOURN TRANS *ORNL CUSAT, 2003, POSS VULN COCH IND C *UNDP, IN PRESS AD POL FRAM CAPISTRANO D, 2003, CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK, P107 CLARK WC, 2000, 20012 HARV U KENN SC DOWNING TE, 2000, CLIMATE CHANGE VULNE JODHA NS, 1989, GREEN HOUSE WARMING JODHA NS, 1992, REGIONS GLOBAL WARMI KATES RW, 2001, SCIENCE, V292, P641 MANABE S, 1994, J CLIMATE, V7, P5 PARSON EA, 2003, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V57, P9 WILBANKS TJ, 1994, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V84, P541 WILBANKS TJ, 1999, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V43, P601 WILBANKS TJ, 2003, ENVIRONMENT, V45, P28 WILBANKS TJ, 2003, SCALING ISSUES INTEG, P5 NR 20 TC 0 J9 CLIM POLICY BP S147 EP S154 PY 2003 VL 3 GA 761BN UT ISI:000187879500011 ER PT J AU Pretty, JN Ball, AS Li, XY Ravindranath, NH TI The role of sustainable agriculture and renewable-resource management in reducing greenhouse-gas emissions and increasing sinks in China and India SO PHILOSOPHICAL TRANSACTIONS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY OF LONDON SERIES A-MATHEMATICAL PHYSICAL AND ENGINEERING SCIENCES LA English DT Article C1 Univ Essex, Ctr Environm & Soc, Colchester CO4 3SQ, Essex, England. Univ Essex, Dept Biol Sci, Colchester CO4 3SQ, Essex, England. China Agr Univ, Coll Rural Dev, Beijing 100094, Peoples R China. Indian Inst Sci, Ctr Ecol Sci, Bangalore 560012, Karnataka, India. RP Pretty, JN, Univ Essex, Ctr Environm & Soc, Wivenhoe Pk, Colchester CO4 3SQ, Essex, England. AB This paper contains an analysis of the technical options in agriculture for reducing greenhouse-gas emissions and increasing sinks, arising from three distinct mechanisms: (i) increasing carbon sinks in soil organic matter and above-ground biomass; (ii) avoiding carbon emissions from farms by reducing direct and indirect energy use; and (iii) increasing renewable-energy production from biomass that either substitutes for consumption of fossil fuels or replaces inefficient burning of fuelwood or crop residues, and so avoids carbon emissions, together with use of biogas digesters and improved cookstoves. We then review best-practice sustainable agriculture and renewable-resource-management projects and initiatives in China and India, and analyse the annual net sinks being created by these projects, and the potential market value of the carbon sequestered. We conclude with a summary of the policy and institutional conditions and reforms required for adoption of best sustainability practice in the agricultural sector to achieve the desired reductions in emissions and increases in sinks. A review of 40 sustainable agriculture and renewable-resource-management projects in China and India under the three mechanisms estimated a carbon mitigation potential of 64.8 MtC yr(-1) from 5.5 Mha. The potential income for carbon mitigation is $324 million at $5 per tonne of carbon. The potential exists to increase this by orders of magnitude, and so contribute significantly to greenhouse-gas abatement. Most agricultural mitigation options also provide several ancillary benefits. However, there are many technical, financial, policy, legal and institutional barriers to overcome. 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Lowestoft Lab, Ctr Environm Fisheries & Aquaculture Sci, Lowestoft NR33 0HT, Suffolk, England. Univ E Anglia, Ctr Ecol Evolut & Conservat, Sch Biol Sci, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. Dalhousie Univ, Dept Biol, Halifax, NS B3H 4J1, Canada. RP Reynolds, JD, Simon Fraser Univ, Dept Biol Sci, Burnaby, BC V5A 1S5, Canada. AB We review interactions between extrinsic threats to marine fishes and intrinsic aspects of their biology that determine how populations and species respond to those threats. Information is available on the status of less than 5% of the world's approximately 15 500 marine fish species, most of which are of commercial importance. By 2001, based on data from 98 North Atlantic and northeast Pacific populations, marine fishes had declined by a median 65% in breeding biomass from known historic levels; 28 populations had declined by more than 80%. Most of these declines would be sufficient to warrant a status of threatened with extinction under international threat criteria. However, this interpretation is highly controversial, in part because of a perception that marine fishes have a suite of life history characteristics, including high fecundity and large geographical ranges, which might confer greater resilience than that shown by terrestrial vertebrates. We review 15 comparative analyses that have tested for these and other life history correlates of vulnerability in marine fishes. The empirical evidence suggests that large body size and late maturity are the best predictors of vulnerability to fishing, regardless of whether differences among taxa in fishing mortality are controlled; there is no evidence that high fecundity confers increased resilience. The evidence reviewed here is of direct relevance to the diverse criteria used at global and national levels by various bodies to assess threat status of fishes. Simple life history traits can be incorporated directly into quantitative assessment criteria, or used to modify the conclusions of quantitative assessments, or used as preliminary screening criteria for assessment of the similar to 95% of marine fish species whose status has yet to be evaluated either by conservationists or fisheries scientists. 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Univ Calif San Diego, Sci Studies Program, La Jolla, CA 92093 USA. RP Oreskes, N, Univ Calif San Diego, Dept Hist, La Jolla, CA 92093 USA. CR *AM GEOPH UN, 2003, EOS, V84, P574 *AM MET SOC, 2003, B AM METEOROL SOC, V84, P508 *NAT AC SCI COMM S, 2001, CLIM CHANG SCI AN SO MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 REVKIN AC, 2003, NY TIMES 0619, A1 VANDENHOVE S, 2003, CLIM POLICY, V2, P3 NR 6 TC 1 J9 SCIENCE BP 1686 EP 1686 PY 2004 PD DEC 3 VL 306 IS 5702 GA 878FA UT ISI:000225630800026 ER PT J AU Guill, S TI Vulnerability and adaptation of African ecosystems to global climate change - Foreword SO CLIMATE RESEARCH LA English DT Editorial Material RP Guill, S, CSMT,US COUNTRY STUDIES PROGRAM,PO 63,1000 INDEPENDENCE AVE SW,WASHINGTON,DC 20585. NR 0 TC 0 J9 CLIMATE RES BP U4 EP U4 PY 1996 PD FEB 19 VL 6 IS 2 GA UD549 UT ISI:A1996UD54900001 ER PT J AU Chester, DK TI Theology and disaster studies: The need for dialogue SO JOURNAL OF VOLCANOLOGY AND GEOTHERMAL RESEARCH LA English DT Review C1 Univ Liverpool, Dept Geog, Liverpool L69 3BX, Merseyside, England. RP Chester, DK, Univ Liverpool, Dept Geog, POB 147, Liverpool L69 3BX, Merseyside, England. AB In hazard analysis the conventional wisdom holds that disasters are features of either human vulnerability and/or demoralised nature. The notion of the 'Act of God' has been almost completely replaced. Using examples of volcanic eruptions and Christian theology, it is argued that many actual and potential victims of hazards continue to explain losses in theistic terms; even in societies where individuals are aware of alternative scientific and social explanations. In Christianity attempts to reconcile God's love, justice and omnipotence on the one hand and human suffering on the other, is termed theodicy, and it is proposed that recent developments allow more fruitful dialogue to take place between hazard analysts and theologians than has been the case hitherto. During the International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction (1990-2000) a consensus emerged that, if responses to disaster are to be successfully managed, then an awareness of local culture is vitally important. This consensus has continued, as research agendas are currently being formulated for the International Strategy for Disaster Reduction. In many disaster prone regions, religion is an essential element of culture and must be carefully considered in the planning process, and not simply dismissed as a symptom of ignorance, superstition and backwardness. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V All rights reserved. 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The dissemination of hurricane mitigation information among Florida's homeowners SO HISPANIC JOURNAL OF BEHAVIORAL SCIENCES LA English DT Article C1 Univ Miami, Dept Sociol, Miami, FL 33152 USA. RP Peguero, AA, Univ Miami, Dept Sociol, Miami, FL 33152 USA. AB When a natural or manmade disaster strikes, there is Usually little time for citizens to prepare and protect themselves. In September 2003, the U.S. Department of Homeland Defense implemented a National Response Plan dealing with many forms of disaster. However, when a disaster hits, not all citizens are equally prepared or protected. A sample of 165 Latino and 1,069 Non-Latino Florida single-family homeowners is drawn from the 1999 Florida Statewide Mitigation Survey (SMS) to investigate the problems associated with the dissemination of hurricane mitigation information among Florida's Latino homeowners. Results from logistic regression analyses reveal that Latino homeowners prefer to utilize friends and family as sources of disaster preparation information. The significance of research findings and policy implications are discussed. 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SO ANNUAL REVIEW OF ANTHROPOLOGY LA English DT Review C1 Univ Sussex, Inst Dev Studies, Environm Grp, Brighton BN1 9RE, E Sussex, England. RP Scoones, I, Univ Sussex, Inst Dev Studies, Environm Grp, Brighton BN1 9RE, E Sussex, England. AB This review asks the question: What new avenues of social science enquiry are suggested by new ecological thinking, with its focus on nonequilibrium dynamics, spatial and temporal variation, complexity, and uncertainty? Following a review of the emergence of the "new ecology" and the highlighting of contrasts with earlier "balance of nature" perspectives, work emerging from ecological anthropology, political ecology, environmental and ecological economics, and debates about nature and culture are examined. With some important exceptions, much social science work and associated popular and policy debates remain firmly wedded to a static and equilibrial view. This review turns to three areas where a more dynamic perspective has emerged. Each has the potential to take central elements of new ecological thinking seriously, sometimes with major practical consequences for planning, intervention design, and management. First is the concern with spatial and temporal dynamics developed in detailed and situated analyses of "people in places," using, in particular, historical analysis as a way of explaining environmental change across time and space. Second is the growing understanding of environment as both the product of and the setting for human interactions, which link dynamic structural analyses of environmental processes with an appreciation of human agency in environmental transformation, as part of a "structuration" approach. Third is the appreciation of complexity and uncertainty in social-ecological systems and, with this, the recognition of that prediction, management, and control are unlikely, if not impossible. 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STODDART DR, 1965, GEOGRAPHY, V50, P242 STONE G, 1996, SETTLEMENT ECOLOGY S SULLIVAN S, 1996, J BIOGEOGR, V23, P1 SZERSZYNSKI B, 1996, RISK ENV MODERNITY N, P104 TAYLOR PJ, 1992, GEOFORUM, V23, P405 TIFFEN M, 1994, MORE PEOPLE LESS ERO TURNER MG, 1989, ANNU REV ECOL SYST, V20, P171 VAYDA AP, 1975, ANNU REV ANTHROPOL, V4, P293 VAYDA AP, 1983, HUM ECOL, V11, P265 WALKER BH, 1993, AMBIO, V22, P80 WALTERS CJ, 1976, ADAPTIVE MANAGEMENT WARREN A, 1995, T I BRIT GEOGR, V20, P193 WARREN D, 1995, CULTURAL DIMENSION D WATTS MJ, 1983, INTERPRETATIONS CALA, P231 WESTOBY M, 1989, J RANGE MANAGE, V42, P266 WHITE R, 1990, J AM HIST, V76, P1114 WIENS JA, 1976, ANNU REV ECOL SYST, V7, P81 WILLIAMS M, 1994, J HIST GEOGR, V20, P3 WILLIAMS R, 1980, PROBLEMS MAT CULTURE WILSON JA, 1990, OCEAN SHORELINE MANA, V13, P179 WILSON K, 1995, ENVIRON HIST, V1, P281 WOLF E, 1972, ANTHR Q, V45, P201 WOODGATE G, 1998, ENVIRON VALUE, V7, P3 WORSTER D, 1977, NATURES EC HIST ECOL WORSTER D, 1979, DUSTBOWL SO PLAINS 1 WORSTER D, 1984, PACIF HIST REV, V53, P16 WORSTER D, 1985, RIVERS EMPIRE WATER WORSTER D, 1993, GLOBAL ECOLOGY NEW A, P132 WORSTER D, 1993, WEALTH NATURE ENV HI WRIGHT S, 1994, ANTHR ORG WYNNE B, 1994, SOCIAL THEORY GLOBAL, P169 WYNNE B, 1996, RISK ENV MODERNITY N, P44 YEARLEY S, 1994, SOCIAL THEORY GLOBAL, P150 ZIMMERER K, 1994, ANN AM ASS GEOGR, V841, P108 ZIMMERER K, 1996, CHANGING FORTUNES BI ZIMMERER K, 1996, CONCEPTS HUMAN GEOGR, P161 NR 265 TC 28 J9 ANNU REV ANTHROPOL BP 479 EP 507 PY 1999 VL 28 GA 270VA UT ISI:000084556800020 ER PT J AU El Raey, M Dewidar, KH El Hattab, M TI Adaptation to the impacts of sea level rise in Egypt SO CLIMATE RESEARCH LA English DT Article C1 Univ Alexandria, Inst Grad Studies & Res, Alexandria, Egypt. RP El Raey, M, Univ Alexandria, Inst Grad Studies & Res, Alexandria, Egypt. AB Assessment of the vulnerability of and expected socioeconomic losses over the Nile Delta coast due to the impact of sea level rise (SLR) was carried out in detail. Impacts of SLR on the Governorates of Alexandria and Port Said, in particular, were evaluated quantitatively. Options and costs of adaptation were analyzed and presented. Multi-criteria and decision matrix approaches based on questionnaire surveys were carried out to identify priorities in the 2 case studies. Results indicate that there are very limited possibilities of changing jobs for vulnerable stakeholders; cost is the main barrier of implementation; the majority of stakeholders recommend protection actions; and beach nourishment with limited hard structures (groins and breakwaters) is the best immediate option for adaptation, while the ICZM approach is the best available strategic option. CR *DELFT HYDR, 1991, IMPL REL SLR DEV LOW *IDSC, 1995, INF DESCR EG *TETR, 1986, SHOR PROT MAST PLAN CARTER TR, 1994, IPCC TECHNICAL GUIDE ELRAEY M, 1995, J COASTAL RES, V14, P190 ELRAEY M, 1997, ENVIRON MONIT ASSESS, V47, P59 ELRAEY M, 1998, ENVIRON MONIT ASSESS, V56, P113 ELRAEY M, 1999, IN PRESS INT J REMOT FANOS AM, 1995, J COASTAL RES, V11, P516 FRIHY OE, 1996, OCEAN COAST MANAGE, V30, P281 IBRAHIM MA, 1997, AQUACULTURE RELATION SESTINI G, 1989, 214 WG UNEP OCA SMITH AE, 1994, R2611A DEC FOC INC SMITH JB, 1997, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V7, P251 STANLEY DJ, 1993, SCIENCE, V260, P628 NR 15 TC 0 J9 CLIMATE RES BP 117 EP 128 PY 1999 PD AUG 27 VL 12 IS 2-3 GA V3096 UT ISI:000171723000009 ER PT J AU ROWLANDS, IH TI EXPLAINING NATIONAL CLIMATE-CHANGE POLICIES SO GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS LA English DT Article RP ROWLANDS, IH, UNIV LONDON LONDON SCH ECON & POLIT SCI,HOUGHTON ST,LONDON WC2A 2AE,ENGLAND. AB In this article, the 'interest based explanation' for international environmental policy is used to investigate the climate change issue. By assessing vulnerability and abatement costs for 24 OECD countries, their respective policy positions are predicted. These are then compared with those policies that actually exist in the international debate to date. Of the 24 countries' policy positions, 11 are accurately predicted, while 13 fail. The article concludes with some comments about the limitations and potential of the interest based explanation. CR 1990, STRATEGIC ADAPTATION 1991, COST EFFECTIVENESS A 1992, EC EFFECTS USING CAR 1992, EC EFFECTS USING CAR 1992, WORLD RESOURCES 1992 1992, WORLD RESOURCES I 19 1993, AIR POLLUTION STUDIE, V9, P22 1993, ENERGY POLICIES IEA, P519 1993, SEA LEVEL RISE GLOBA 1994, CLIMATE CHANGE POLIC, V1, P103 1995, 11TH SESS INT NEG CO 1995, EARTH NEGOTIATIONS B, V12, P7 ALLISON GT, 1971, ESSENCE DECISION EXP AMIN S, 1982, DYNAMICS GLOBAL CRIS BARRETT S, 1992, EUROPEAN EC BARRETT S, 1992, EUROPEAN EC, P12 BARRETT S, 1992, NEGOTIATING FRAMEWOR, P35 BARRETT, REACHING CO2 EMISSIO CARRARO C, 1993, J PUBLIC ECON, V52, P309 CLINE WR, 1992, EC GLOBAL WARMING EYCKMANS J, 1993, KYKLOS, V46, P363 FANKHAUSER S, 1994, UNPUB PROTECTION VS FANKHAUSER S, 1995, ENVIRON PLANN A, V27, P299 FANKHAUSER S, 1995, VALUING CLIMATE CHAN FISCHER G, 1994, GLOBAL ENV CHANGE, V4, P22 FISCHER G, 1994, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V4, P7 GRIECO JM, 1990, COOPERATION NATIONS HAAS PM, 1990, SAVING MEDITERRANEAN HARDIN G, 1968, SCIENCE, V162, P1243 HARDIN R, 1982, COLLECTIVE ACTION MAXWELL JH, 1993, INT ENV AFFAIRS, V5, P30 MILNER H, 1992, WORLD POLIT, V44, P493 NORDHAUS WD, 1991, ECON J, V101, P920 NORDHAUS, EC GLOBAL WARMING ODELL J, 1982, US INT MONETARY POLI OLIVEIRAMARTINS J, 1992, OECD118 EC DEP WORK OLIVEIRAMARTINS J, 1992, OECD118 EC DEP WORK OLIVEIRAMARTINS, COSTS REDUCING CO2 E OLSON M, 1965, LOGIC COLLECTIVE ACT OSTROM E, 1990, GOVERNING COMMONS PEARCE DW, 1994, SOCIAL COSTS CLIMATE RAYNER S, 1993, GLOBAL ENV CHANGE, V3, P25 REILLY JM, 1994, GLOBAL ENV CHANGE, V4, P30 REILLY JM, 1994, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V4, P24 ROTMANS J, 1994, GLOBAL ENV CHANGE, V4, P116 ROTMANS J, 1994, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V4, P97 ROWLANDS IH, 1995, POLITICS GLOBAL ATMO, CH7 SPRINZ D, 1994, INT ORGAN, V48, P77 TEGART WJM, 1993, CLIMATE CHANGE 1992 TITUS JG, 1992, GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANG TOL RSJ, 1994, DAMAGE COSTS CLIMATE VOGEL D, 1986, NATIONAL STYLES REGU, P21 YOUNG OR, 1993, POLAR POLITICS CREAT NR 53 TC 1 J9 GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANGE BP 235 EP 249 PY 1995 PD JUN VL 5 IS 3 GA RX122 UT ISI:A1995RX12200007 ER PT J AU Jones, RN TI An environmental risk assessment/management framework for climate change impact assessments SO NATURAL HAZARDS LA English DT Article C1 CSIRO, Div Atmospher Res, Aspendale, Vic 3195, Australia. RP Jones, RN, CSIRO, Div Atmospher Res, Aspendale, Vic 3195, Australia. AB This paper presents an environmental risk assessment/risk management framework to assess the impacts of climate change on individual exposure units identified as potentially vulnerable to climate change. This framework is designed specifically to manage the systematic uncertainties that accompany the propagation of climate change scenarios through a sequence of biophysical and socio-economic climate impacts. Risk analysis methods consistent with the IPCC Technical Guidelines for Assessing Climate Change Impacts and Adaptations are set within a larger framework that involves stakeholders in the identification, assessment and implementation of adaptation measures. Extensive consultation between parties occurs in a flexible structure that embeds scientific methods of risk analysis within a broad setting of social decision-making. This format is consistent with recent forms of environmental risk assessment/management frameworks. The risk analysis links key climatic variables expressed as projected ranges of climate change with an upper and lower limit, with impact thresholds identified collaboratively by researchers and stakeholders. The conditional probabilities of exceeding these thresholds are then assessed (probabilities using this method are conditional as the full range of uncertainty for the various drivers of climate change, and their probability distributions, remains unknown). An example based on exceeding irrigation demand limited by an annual farm cap is used to show how conditional probabilities for the exceedance of a critical threshold can be used to assess the need for adaptation. The time between the identification of an acceptable level of risk and its exceedance is identified as a window of adaptation. The treatment of risk consists of two complementary actions, adaptation to anticipated changes in climate and the mitigation of climate change through reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. Both of these actions will reduce the risk of critical thresholds being exceeded. The potential of this framework for addressing specific requirements of the United Nations Framework Convention for Climate Change is discussed. CR *CSIRO, 1996, CLIM CHANG SCEN AUST *IPCC, 1993, IPCC PROC PREP REV A *MDBMC, 1999, SAL AUD MURR BAS *QUEENSL TRANSP, 1999, EFF CLIM CHANG TRANS *STAND ASS AUSTR, 1999, 43601999 AS NZS STAN *USPCC RARM, 1997, FRAM ENV HLTH RISK M, V1 BASS B, 1997, ENVIRON MONIT ASSESS, V46, P151 BASS B, 1997, J ENVIRON MANAGE, V49, P107 BEER T, 1996, RISK UNCERTAINTY ENV, P3 BEER T, 1997, WORLD RES REV, V9, P113 BUDDEMEIER RW, 1998, LOICZ NEWSLETTER, P1 CARTER TR, 1994, IPCC TECHNICAL GUIDE CARTER TR, 1999, GUIDELINES USE SCENA CARTER TR, 1999, REPRESENTING UNCERTA CHAPMAN AD, 1998, IMPACT GLOBAL WARMIN DAVIS WP, 1994, B MAR SCI, V54, P1045 DEXTER EM, 1995, IMPACT GLOBAL WARMIN DOWLATABADI H, 1999, INTEGRATED CLIMATE A GATTUSO JP, 1999, AM ZOOL, V39, P160 HALL WB, 1998, RANGELAND J, V20, P177 HENNESSY KJ, 1995, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V30, P327 HOEGHGULDBERG O, 1999, CLIMATE CHANGE CORAL HOUGHTON JT, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, P9 HULME M, 1998, CLIMATE RES, V10, P1 HULME M, 1999, REPRESENTING UNCERTA HUPPERT A, 1998, AM NAT, V152, P447 JETTEN TH, 1997, AM J TROP MED HYG, V57, P285 JOHNSON B, 1998, CLIMATE CHANGE SCENA, P61 JONES RN, 1997, FRONTIERS ECOLOGY BU, P311 JONES RN, 1999, RESOURCE FUTURES PRO, V9908, P40 JONES RN, 2000, ANAL EFFECTS KYOTO 2 JONES RN, 2000, CLIMATE RES, V14, P89 JONES RN, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P403 KEINAST F, 1996, FOREST ECOL MANAG, V80, P133 KEINAST F, 1998, BIOL CONSERV, V83, P291 KEINAST F, 1999, FOREST ECOL MANAG, V120, P35 KENNY GJ, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V46, P91 LANE ME, 1999, J WATER RES PL-ASCE, V125, P194 LAVEE H, 1998, LAND DEGRAD DEV, V9, P407 LUO Y, 1995, J BIOGEOGR, V22, P673 MARTENS WJM, 1995, ENVIRON HEALTH PERSP, V103, P458 MCMICHAEL AJ, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, P561 MIMIKOU MA, 1997, HYDROLOG SCI J, V42, P661 MORGAN MG, 1990, UNCERTAINTY GUIDE DE MORGAN MG, 1996, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V34, P337 NAKICENOVIC N, 2000, EMISSIONS SCENARIOS NEW M, 2000, INTEGR ASSESS, V1, P203 NUNN PD, 1997, J COASTAL RES, V24, P133 PALMER W, 1965, 45 US WEATH BUR PANAGOULIA D, 1997, J HYDROL, V191, P208 PARRY ML, 1996, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V6, P1 PATT A, 1999, RISK DECISION POLICY, V4, P1 PATZ JA, 1996, CLIMATE RES, V6, P113 PATZ JA, 1998, ENVIRON HEALTH PERSP, V106, P147 PETSCHELHELD G, 1997, COST BENEFIT ANAL CL, P121 PILGRIM DH, 1987, AUSTR RAINFALL RUNOF, V1 PITTOCK AB, 1993, MODELLING CHANGE ENV, P481 PITTOCK AB, 2000, IN PRESS ENV MONIT A POWER M, 1998, ENVIRON SCI TECHNOL, V32, A224 READING CJ, 1998, OECOLOGIA, V117, P469 RUSSELL C, 1993, 93R13 IWR US ARM COR SCHIMMELPFENNIG D, 1998, GLOBAL ENV CHANGE AG, P193 SCHREIDER SY, 1996, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V34, P513 SHLYAKHTER A, 1995, CHEMOSPHERE, V30, P1585 SPANO D, 1999, INT J BIOMETEOROL, V42, P124 SWART RJ, 1994, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V26, P343 SYME GJ, 1994, EVALUATION REV, V18, P523 TITUS JG, 1996, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V33, P151 TUCKER GE, 1997, WATER RESOUR RES, V33, P2031 VISSER H, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P421 WALSH KJ, 1999, CLIMATE CHANGE QUEEN WALSH KJE, 1998, GLOBAL WARMING SEA L WATSON RT, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, V1, P1 WATSON RT, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, P1 WATSON RT, 1998, REGIONAL IMPACTS CLI, V1, P1 WHITE DH, 1997, IN PRESS P 9 WORLD W WIGLEY TML, 1990, J GEOPHYS RES-ATMOSP, V95, P851 WOODBURY PB, 1998, FOREST ECOL MANAG, V107, P99 YOHE GW, 1998, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V38, P447 NR 79 TC 7 J9 NATURAL HAZARDS BP 197 EP 230 PY 2001 PD MAR VL 23 IS 2-3 GA 417UX UT ISI:000167853500007 ER PT J AU Jenkins, B TI NGOs in Bangladesh: Are they in a strong position to assist vulnerable people living on low-lying lands to cope with floods? SO SOUTH ASIA-JOURNAL OF SOUTH ASIAN STUDIES LA English DT Article C1 Univ New England, Armidale, NSW 2351, Australia. RP Jenkins, B, Univ New England, Armidale, NSW 2351, Australia. CR *AG KHAN FDN CAN N, 1993, GOING SCAL BRAC EXP *BRAC, 1983, NET POW STRUCT 10 VI *WORLD BANK, 1990, 119 WORLD BANK ABED FH, 1997, REASONS HOPE INSTRUC, P41 AHMED I, 1999, LIVING FLOODS EXERCI, P27 AHMED QF, 1997, DISCOURSE, V1, P60 BLAIKIE PM, 1994, RISK NATURAL HAZARDS, V1, P1 BOYCE J, 1990, ENVIRON MANAGE, V14, P421 BRAMMER H, 1989, DISASTERS, V13, P95 BUCKLAND J, 2000, J HUMANITARIAN ASSIS, P2 BURKEY S, 1993, PEOPLE 1 GUIDE SELF, P109 CHAMBERS R, 1993, CHALLENGING PROFESSI, P95 CHOURCI N, 1995, GLOBAL ACCORD ENV CH, P96 COLCHESTER M, 1984, SURVIVAL INT REV, V43, P29 COLCHESTER M, 1994, DEV ENV SUSTAINING P, P76 DAVIDSON I, 1992, NO TIME WASTE POVERT EDWARDS M, 1999, WORLD DEV, V27, P366 EDWARDS M, 2002, EARTHSCAN READER NGO, P1 EDWARDS M, 2002, EARTHSCAN READER NGO, P187 EKINS P, 1992, NEW WORLD ORDER GRAS, P116 FOWLER A, 2002, EARTHSCAN READER NGO, P14 HAQ S, 2001, ADVOCACY SOCIAL JUST HOLDGATE M, 1996, CARE ACTION MAKING S, P16 HOSSAIN M, 1982, CONSCIENTIZING RURAL JACKSON B, 1994, POVERTY PLANET QUEST, P14 JAYASINGHA H, 1996, POVERTY PARTNERSHIP KORTEN D, 1984, PEOPLE CENTERED DEV, P127 LEWIS DJ, 1997, ANN AM ACAD POLIT SS, P1 LOVELL C, 1992, BREAKING CYCLE POVER, P15 MATIN N, 2001, DISASTERS, V25, P229 MAWDSLEY E, 2002, WORLD VIEW PUBLISHIN, V14, P165 MONAN J, 1989, BANGLADESH STRENGTH, P27 NORGARD RB, 1994, DEV BETRAYED END PRO, P14 PALMER TN, 2002, NATURE, V415, P512 SAGASTI FR, 1995, GLOBAL ACCORD ENV CH, P180 SATTAUR O, 1991, NEW SCIENTIST, V29, P23 SCOONES I, 1998, 72 I DEV STUD SHAW R, 1992, BUSH BASE FOREST FAR, P211 SMILLIE I, 2001, MANAGING CHANGE LEAD, P9 TANDON R, 2002, EARTHSCAN READER NGO, P222 TUCKER RP, 1988, WORLD DEFORESTATION, P91 ULLAH MS, 1988, OPEN HOUSE INT, V13, P44 WATSON RT, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE SYNTH NR 43 TC 0 J9 S ASIA BP 455 EP 466 PY 2003 PD DEC VL 26 IS 3 GA 064IA UT ISI:000239081200014 ER PT J AU Walker, S TI Role of education and training in agricultural meteorology to reduce vulnerability to climate variability SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 Univ Orange Free State, Dept Soil Crop & Climate Sci, ZA-9300 Bloemfontein, South Africa. RP Walker, S, Univ Orange Free State, Dept Soil Crop & Climate Sci, POB 339, ZA-9300 Bloemfontein, South Africa. AB Agricultural meteorologists are concerned with many operational aspects of the effects of climate on crop production, livestock, and natural resource management. For them to continue to make a contribution to the economy of a country they must continually sharpen their skills and remain updated on the latest available information. Training should include a variety of skills, including transferable skills (e.g. communication, numeracy), professional skills (including cognitive skills) and information technology skills. Problem-based learning can be used to promote critical thinking, decision making and analytical skills. More use should be made of computer-aided learning for agricultural meteorologists' in-service training. In particular, the Internet or CDs could be used to disseminate specific recently developed techniques and applications to improve the understanding of the variability in climate and its effect on agricultural production and natural resource management. Examples that can address the vulnerability of farmers include crop-climate matching, the use of indices, crop modelling and risk assessment together with seasonal outlooks. A strategy needs to be formulated to address these needs and implement changes in the education and training of agricultural meteorologists. These training needs must be constantly updated to meet the changing demands of new technology to cope with climate change and climate variability. CR *FAO, 1990, GUIDELINES CONDUCT T, P259 ANDERSON JR, 1992, RISK ANAL DRYLAND FA, P109 BIGGS J, 1999, TEACHING QUALITY LEA, P250 BOUD D, 1999, CHALLENGE PROBLEM BA, P344 DOORENBOS J, 1979, YIELD RESPONSE WATER, P193 DOORENBOS J, 1992, GUIDELINES PREDICTIN, P156 FLOOR K, 2001, P C COMP AID LEARN D GIBBS C, DEV STUDENTS, P51 HAMMER GL, 1996, P 2 AUSTR C AGR BRIS LOMAS J, 2000, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V103, P197 MASON SJ, 1996, WATER SA, V22, P203 MCMASTER GS, 1997, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V87, P291 MUCHOW RC, 1991, CLIMATIC RISK CROP P, P235 ROSENBERG NJ, 1983, MICROCLIMATE BIOL EN, P495 SINGH RP, 1991, NEEM NEWSL, V8, P3 SPANGLER T, 2001, P C COMP AID LEARN D SYS C, CROP REQUIREMENTS, V3 SYS C, METHODS LAND EVALUAT, V2 SYS C, 1991, PRINCIPLES LAND EVAL, V2 WALKER S, 2001, ASSESSMENT COMMUNICA, P163 WALKER S, 2002, P BRAM FISCH S OXF B NR 21 TC 1 J9 CLIMATIC CHANGE BP 311 EP 318 PY 2005 PD MAY VL 70 IS 1-2 GA 942EG UT ISI:000230265100016 ER PT J AU Fine, B TI Entitlement failure? SO DEVELOPMENT AND CHANGE LA English DT Article RP Fine, B, UNIV LONDON,THORNHAUGH ST,RUSSELL SQ,LONDON WC1H 0XG,ENGLAND. AB In this article, the literature around the entitlement approach to famine is assessed against the background of recent developments in economics which are perceived to have increasingly encroached upon the previously neglected subject matter of the other social sciences. In this light, emphasis is given to the tension that exists in the entitlement approach between its micro-foundations and macro-consequences and causes. This, in turn, is related to the broader problem in social theory of the relations between structures and agency. Whilst it is found that the entitlement approach does embody an implicit causal content in the filtering of socioeconomic mechanisms through the distribution of individual entitlements, it is ultimately argued that the approach is primarily suited to investigative rather than causal analysis. 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Univ Nebraska, Natl Drought Mitigat Ctr, Lincoln, NE 68583 USA. RP Wilhelmi, OV, Natl Ctr Atmospher Res, Adv Study Program, POB 3000, Boulder, CO 80307 USA. AB Recent drought events in the United States and the magnitude of drought losses indicate the continuing vulnerability of the country to drought. Until recently, drought management in many states, including Nebraska, has been largely response oriented with little or no attention to mitigation and preparedness. In 1998, Nebraska began to revise its drought plan in order to place more emphasis on mitigation. One of the main aspects of drought mitigation and planning is the assessment of who and what is vulnerable and why. This paper presents a method for spatial, Geographic Information Systems-based assessment of agricultural drought vulnerability in Nebraska. It was hypothesized that the key biophysical and social factors that define agricultural drought vulnerability were climate, soils, land use, and access to irrigation. The framework for derivation of an agricultural drought vulnerability map was created through development of a numerical weighting scheme to evaluate the drought potential of the classes within each factor. The results indicate that the most vulnerable areas to agricultural drought were non-irrigated cropland and rangeland on sandy soils, located in areas with a very high probability of seasonal crop moisture deficiency. The identification of drought vulnerability is an essential step in addressing the issue of drought vulnerability in the state and can lead to mitigation-oriented drought management. 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CSIR, ZA-7599 Stellenbosch, South Africa. Univ Pretoria, Ctr Environm Studies, ZA-0002 Pretoria, South Africa. RP Bohensky, EL, Univ Stellenbosch, Dept Bot & Zool, Biocomplex Res Grp, Ctr Invas Biol, Private Bag X1, ZA-7602 Stellenbosch, South Africa. AB Scenario planning is a promising tool for dealing with uncertainty, but it has been underutilized in ecology and conservation. The use of scenarios to explore ecological dynamics of alternative futures has been given a major boost by the recently completed Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, a 4-year initiative to investigate relationships between ecosystem services and human well-being at multiple scales. Scenarios, as descriptive narratives of pathways to the future, are a mechanism for improving the understanding and management of ecological and social processes by scientists and decision makers with greater flexibility than conventional techniques could afford. We used scenarios in one of the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment's subglobal components to explore four possible futures in a Southern African river basin. Because of its ability to capture spatial and temporal dynamics, the scenario exercise revealed key trade-offs in ecosystem services in space and time and the importance of a multiple-scale scenario design. At subglobal scales, scenarios are a powerful vehicle for communication and engagement of decision makers, especially when designed to identify responses to specific problems. Scenario planning has the potential to be a critical ingredient in conservation as calls are increasingly made for the field to help define and achieve sustainable visions for the future. 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Univ Cadiz, Fac Ciencias Mar, Cadiz, Spain. Univ Buenos Aires, CONICET, Fac Arquitectura Diseno & Urbanismo, Buenos Aires, DF, Argentina. Univ Buenos Aires, GEPAMA, Fac Arquitectura Diseno & Urbanismo, Buenos Aires, DF, Argentina. RP Dadon, JR, Univ Buenos Aires, Fac Ciencias Exactas & Nat, Dept Ecol Genet & Evoluc, GEPAMA, RA-1428 Buenos Aires, DF, Argentina. AB The continental coastal zone of Argentina can be differentiated by environmental, biological, socioeconomic, and historical characteristics in four distinct regions. The Great Fluvial region, 3725 km long, shows richness of natural resources and has a developing economy based on forestry and agriculture, The La Plata River (Rio de la Plata) region, with a 392 km waterfront, is the most densely populated, urbanized, industrialized area in the country, and it also exhibits high levels of environmental degradation. The Pampean (Pampeana) and the Patagonian (Patagonica) regions have a 4725 km litoral They hold important fishery stocks, the largest of which (the hake) is currently overexploited. Tourism demand has caused urban landscape to progress in the Pampa coast during the last three decades. In Patagonia, most of the natural resources are well preserved but the territorial and economic integration is still delayed. Despite the environmental and socioeconomic differences among the four regions, there is, however, a common set of problems which, to a greater or lesser extent, affect them all: (a) privatization of the public domain; (b) inadequate urban planning of the coastal zone; (c) industrial and urban pollution; (d) coastal erosion linked to inadequate coastal management practices; (e) overexploitation of natural resources; (f) loss and fragmentation of natural habitats leading to the loss of biodiversity; (g) increased coastal vulnerability. According to this diagnosis, coordinated specific, long-term actions should be promoted. Even when Argentina has a wide range of environmental legislation, it lacks a single tool or instrument specifically designed for coastal management. Most of the regulations and administrative requirements applied to the current coastal zone management are general normatives, and thus diffuse or hardly suitable for specific situations. We propose to attain consensus about a minimal preliminary basis in order to develop a national integrated management coastal program. Some of the issues are: design of specific governmental policies; creation of a specific institutional organization; long-term funding for the program; promotion of interinstitutional coordination and public participation in the decision-making process; development of specific research, education, training and information generation; and promotion of international cooperation aimed at sharing experiences in coastal zone management. CR *AKAL, 2001, EST MUND 2002 AN EC *CEPAL, 2000, BAL PREL EC AM LAT C *FUND CIUD, 2000, FOR CIUD RIO DOC BAS *FUND PAT NAT, 1996, UNPUB PLAN MAN ZON C *I REC MUND, 1996, POBL MED AMB *IGM, 1998, ATL GEOGR REP ARG *OAS, 1969, CUENC RIO PLAT EST P *PNUMA, 2000, GEO AM LAT CAR PERSP ALVAREZ JA, 1984, CONCEPTOS BASICOS MA ALVIAL A, 1999, OCEAN COAST MANAGE, V42, P143 ARDUINO G, 1990, INTERCIENCIA, V15, P373 BALMACEDA RR, 1988, ARGENTINA GEOGRAFIA BARRAGAN JM, 2001, J COASTAL RES, V17, P885 BERTONCELLO R, 1993, TERRITORIO, P1 BONETTO AA, 1998, HUMEDALES ARGENTINA, P31 BRAILOVSKY A, 1991, MEMORIA VERDE HIST E BRAILOVSKY A, 1995, TODO HIST, V332, P82 BRANDANI A, 1987, COASTAL MANAGEMENT, V15, P43 BRANDANI A, 1990, MANEJO AMBIENTES REC, V1, P37 CAFIERO A, 1999, DIARIO ASUNTOS ENTRD CARLEVARI I, 1993, ARGENTINA 1993 ESTRU CARNEVARI P, 1999, WETLANDS INT PUBL, V46 CARVALHO V, 1994, ZONA COSTEIRA BRASIL CASTELLI L, 1995, CONVENCION MAR PROTE CICINSAIN B, 1998, INTEGRATED COASTAL O CIOCCO NF, 1998, MAR ARGENTINO RECURS CLARK JR, 1996, COASTAL ZONE MANAGEM CODIGNOTTO JO, 1997, MAR ARGENTINO RECURS, V1, P89 DADON JR, 1999, BIODIVERSIDAD USO TI, P529 DADON JR, 2001, SUSTENTABILIDAD BIOD, P703 DADON JR, 2002, ZONA COSTERA PAMPA A, P101 DARRIGRAN G, 1997, CIENCIA HOY, V7, P17 DARRIGRAN G, 1998, HYDROBIOLOGIA, V367, P223 DEPESCA S, 1997, CONSUMO PESCADO MERC DESISTO MCZ, 1987, INTRO ESTUDIO RECURS DESISTO MCZ, 1994, DECADAS LEGISLACION FRANZA JA, 2002, ZONA COSTERA PAMPA A GOMEZ ES, 1998, HUMEDALES ARGENTINA, P97 GUARGA R, 1991, CORRIENTES SEDIMENTO GUERRERO RA, 1997, CONT SHELF RES, V17, P727 ISLA FI, 1992, UNPUB AMBIENTE COSTE ISLA FI, 1995, 6 C LAT CIENC MAR MA, P111 KAY R, 1999, COASTAL PLANNING MAN KELLEHER G, 1995, GLOBAL REPRESENTATIV, V2 LACIAR M, 1987, INTRO ESTUDIO RECURS LEGECKIS R, 1982, DEEP-SEA RES, V29, P375 LEPEYRE EG, 1999, OCEAN COAST MANAGE, V42, P155 LOPEZ RA, 1995, 6 C LAT CIENC MAR MA, P122 MARCOMINI SC, 1997, REV ASOCIACION ARGEN, V4, P79 MARTINEZ CM, 1999, OCEAN COAST MANAGE, V42, P165 MATTEUCCI SD, 1999, BIODIVERSIDAD USO TI, P549 MONTANER CA, 2001, RAICES TORCIDAS AM L MORAES ACR, 1999, CONTNIBUCOES GESTAO MORELLO J, 1998, SISTEMAS AMBIENTALES, P409 MORELLO J, 2000, REALIDAD EC, V169, P70 MUNOZ JMB, 1996, REV ESTUDIOS REGIONA, V45, P111 MUNOZ JMB, 1997, MEDIO AMBIENTE DESAR MUNOZ JMB, 2001, COASTAL MANAGEMENT, V29, P17 PARKER G, 1997, MAR ARGENTINO SUS RE, V1, P65 PIRIZ ML, 2001, SUSTENTABILIDAD BIOD, P679 ROCCATAGLIATA J, 1997, GEOGRAFIA ARGENTINA SANTOS EG, 2000, 8 JORN DEF BUEN AIR, P10 SCHNACK EJ, 1985, WORLDS COASTLINE, P69 WARNER FM, 1996, CONV NAC UN DER MAR YANEZARANCIBIA A, 1999, OCEAN COAST MANAGE, V42, P77 YORIO PM, 1998, HUMEDALES ARGENTINA, P137 NR 66 TC 0 J9 COAST MANAGE BP 55 EP 77 PY 2003 PD JAN-MAR VL 31 IS 1 GA 638BP UT ISI:000180549800004 ER PT J AU Claggett, PR Jantz, CA Goetz, SJ Bisland, C TI Assessing development pressure in the Chesapeake Bay watershed: An evaluation of two land-use change models SO ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING AND ASSESSMENT LA English DT Article C1 US Geol Survey, Annapolis, MD 21403 USA. Univ Maryland, Dept Geog, College Pk, MD 20742 USA. Woods Hole Res Ctr, Woods Hole, MA 02543 USA. US EPA, Annapolis, MD 21403 USA. RP Claggett, PR, US Geol Survey, 410 Severn Ave,Suite 109, Annapolis, MD 21403 USA. AB Natural resource lands in the Chesapeake Bay watershed are increasingly susceptible to conversion into developed land uses, particularly as the demand for residential development grows. We assessed development pressure in the Baltmore-Washington, DC region, one of the major urban and suburban centers in the watershed. We explored the utility of two modeling approaches for forecasting future development trends and patterns by comparing results from a cellular automata model, SLEUTH (slope, land use, excluded land, urban extent, transportation), and a supply/demand/allocation model, the Western Futures Model. SLEUTH can be classified as a land-cover change model and produces projections on the basis of historic trends of changes in the extent and patterns of developed land and future land protection scenarios. The Western Futures Model derives forecasts from historic trends in housing units, a U.S. Census variable, and exogenously supplied future population projections. Each approach has strengths and weaknesses, and combining the two has advantages and limitations. CR *CHES EX COUNC, 2003, CHES 2000 *URB I, 2002, CENS CD NEIGHB CHANG *US CENS BUR, 2003, CENS TRACTS CART BOU *US EPA, 2000, EPA600R00098 OFF RES *US EPA, 2001, EPA600R00098 OFF RES *US EPA, 2001, EPA903F01003 *USGS, 2003, PROJ GIG URB LAND CO BOCKSTAEL NE, 1996, AM J AGR ECON, V78, P1168 BOESCH DF, 2003, CHESAPEAKE FUTURES C CANDAU J, 2002, THESIS U CALIFORNIA CLARKE KC, 1997, ENV PLANN B, V24, P47 CLARKE KC, 1998, INT J GEOGR INF SCI, V12, P699 EWING R, 2002, MEASURING SPRAWL ITS HARDIE I, 2000, LAND ECON, V76, P659 HEROLD M, 2003, REMOTE SENS ENVIRON, V86, P286 JACKSON LE, 2004, ENVIRON MONIT ASSESS, V94, P231 JANTZ CA, IN PRESS ENV PLANN B JENKS GF, 1963, INT YB CARTOGRAPHY, V3, P119 JONES KB, 1997, EPA600R97130 OFF RES LUCY WH, 2001, BROOKINGS I SURVEY S MCCAULEY S, 2003, INT J REMOTE SENS, V24, P1 OKICKI M, 2002, COMMUNICATION 1203 SILVA E, 2002, COMPUTES ENV URBAN S, V26, P525 SMITH AJ, IN PRESS REMOTE SENS THEOBALD D, IN PRESS CONSERV BIO THEOBALD D, 2003, COMMUNICATION 0630 THEOBALD D, 2003, TECHNICAL DESCRIPTIO THEOBALD DM, 2001, GEOGR REV, V91, P544 VARLYGUIN D, 2001, AM SOC PHOT REM SENS YANG XJ, 2003, INT J GEOGR INF SCI, V17, P463 NR 30 TC 1 J9 ENVIRON MONIT ASSESS BP 129 EP 146 PY 2004 PD JUN VL 94 IS 1-3 GA 775UE UT ISI:000189078400010 ER PT J AU Nicholls, RJ Lowe, JA TI Benefits of mitigation of climate change for coastal areas SO GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS LA English DT Article C1 Univ Southampton, Sch Civil Engn & Environm, Southampton SO17 1BJ, Hants, England. Univ Reading, Dept Meteorol, Hadley Ctr, Reading Unit, Reading RG6 6BB, Berks, England. RP Nicholls, RJ, Univ Southampton, Sch Civil Engn & Environm, Univ Rd,Highfield, Southampton SO17 1BJ, Hants, England. AB This paper considers the possible benefits of mitigation of climate change for coastal areas with a strong emphasis on sea-level rise as this is one of the most certain consequences of human-induced global warming. There is a long-term 'commitment to sea-level rise' due to the long thermal lags of the ocean system and hence the response of sea-level rise to mitigation is slower than for other climate factors. Therefore, while climate stabilisation reduces coastal impacts during the 21st century, compared to unmitigated emissions, the largest benefits may occur in the 22nd century (and beyond). The results of the analysis suggest that a mixture of adaptation and mitigation policies need to be considered for coastal areas, as this will provide a more robust response to human-induced climate change than either policy in isolation. This requires the joint evaluation of mitigation and adaptation in coastal areas, ideally using a probabilistic risk-based methodology, which would be a departure from existing analyses. Because of the long time constants involved such assessments need to continue beyond 2100 to provide the full implications of the different policy choices. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *EN MOD FOR, 1995, 14 EMF *IGBPLOICZ, 2002, INT GEOSPH BIOSPH PR *IPCC CZMS, 1992, GLOB CLIM CHANG RIS *WASA GROUP, 1998, B AM METEOROL SOC, V79, P741 ARNELL NW, 2002, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V53, P413 ARNELL NW, 2004, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V14, P3 BOS E, 1994, WORLD POPULATION PRO CABANES C, 2001, SCIENCE, V294, P840 CARNELL RE, 1998, CLIM DYNAM, V14, P369 CARTER TR, 1999, P ECLAT 2 HEL WORKSH CHURCH JA, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, P639 DARWIN RF, 2001, ENVIRON RESOUR ECON, V19, P113 DOUGLAS BC, 1992, J GEOPHYS RES-OCEANS, V97, P12699 DOUGLAS BC, 2001, SEA LEVEL RISE HIST, P37 EMERY KO, 1991, SEA LEVELS LAND LEVE ENTING IG, 1994, 31 CSIRO FANKHAUSER S, 1995, VALUING CLIMAGE CHAN GORNITZ V, 2001, SEA LEVEL RISE HIST, P97 GREGORY JM, 1993, J CLIMATE, V6, P2247 GREGORY JM, 2000, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V27, P3069 GREGORY JM, 2001, CLIM DYNAM, V18, P225 GREGORY JM, 2002, J CLIMATE, V15, P3117 GUNTHER H, 1998, GLOBAL ATMOS OCEAN S, V6, P121 HENDERSONSELLERS A, 1998, B AM METEOROL SOC, V79, P19 HOLLIGAN P, 1993, SCI PLANT INT GEOSPH HOOZEMANS FMJ, 1993, GLOBAL VULNERABILITY HUYBRECHTS P, 1999, J CLIMATE 1, V12, P2169 JOHNS TC, 2003, CLIMATE DYNAMCIS, P583 KAAS E, 2000, CLIMATE SCENARIOS WA, P49 KNUTSON TR, 1998, SCIENCE, V279, P1018 KRISHNAMURTI TN, 1998, TELLUS A, V50, P186 LOWE JA, UNPUB MECH SEA LEVEL LOWE JA, UNPUB PREP2 SEA LEVE LOWE JA, 2001, CLIM DYNAM, V18, P179 MCLEAN RF, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, P343 MERCER JH, 1978, NATURE, V271, P321 MITCHELL JFB, 2000, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V27, P2997 MURPHY JM, UNPUB NATURE NAKICENOVIC N, 2000, WORK GROUP 3 INT PAN NICHOLLS RJ, 1995, GEOJOURNAL, V37, P369 NICHOLLS RJ, 1995, P WORLD COAST 1993 M, P181 NICHOLLS RJ, 1998, CLIMATE RES, V11, P5 NICHOLLS RJ, 2002, ISS ENVIR SCI TECHN, V17, P83 NICHOLLS RJ, 2002, PHYS CHEM EARTH, V27, P1455 NICHOLLS RJ, 2004, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V14, P69 NICOLLS RJ, 1999, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V9, S69 NURSE L, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, P843 OPPENHEIMER M, 1998, NATURE, V393, P325 PARRY ML, 1999, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHA S, V9, S1 PARRY ML, 2001, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V11, P1 PERNETTA JC, 1992, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V2, P19 PETOUKHOV V, 2000, CLIM DYNAM, V16, P1 RAPER SCB, 2002, J CLIMATE, V15, P124 SACHS JD, 2001, SCI AM, V284, P70 SCHIMEL D, 1997, IPCC TECHN PAPER 3 SCHNEIDER SH, 1980, ANNU REV ENERG ENV, V5, P107 SINCLAIR MR, 1999, J CLIMATE, V12, P3467 SMALL C, 2003, J COASTAL RES, V19, P584 SUTHERLAND J, 2002, SR590 SUTHERLAND J, 2003, P I CIVIL ENG-WATER, V156, P137 SWART RJ, 2002, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V12, P155 TITUS JG, 1996, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V33, P151 TONIAZZO T, 2004, J CLIMATE, V17, P21 TURNER I, 1996, APPL MATH MODEL, V20, P2 VAUGHAN DG, 2002, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V52, P65 VILES H, 1995, COASTAL PROBLEMS WARRICK RA, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, P359 WATSON RT, 2001, CLIMAGE CHANGE 2001 WIGLEY TML, 1993, CLIMATE SEA LEVEL CH, P111 WIGLEY TML, 1996, NATURE, V379, P242 WOODWORTH PL, 1999, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V26, P1589 ZHANG KQ, 2000, J CLIMATE, V13, P1748 NR 72 TC 0 J9 GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANGE BP 229 EP 244 PY 2004 PD OCT VL 14 IS 3 GA 854EQ UT ISI:000223884300005 ER PT J AU Harris, JA Hobbs, RJ Higgs, E Aronson, J TI Ecological restoration and global climate change SO RESTORATION ECOLOGY LA English DT Editorial Material C1 Cranfield Univ, Bedford MK45 4DT, England. Murdoch Univ, Sch Environm Sci, Murdoch, WA 6150, Australia. Univ Victoria, Sch Environm Studies, Victoria, BC V8W 2Y2, Canada. CNRS, UMR 5175, Restorat Ecol Grp, CEFE, F-34293 Montpellier, France. RP Harris, JA, Cranfield Univ, Bedford MK45 4DT, England. AB There is an increasing consensus that global climate change occurs and that potential changes in climate are likely to have important regional consequences for biota and ecosystems. Ecological restoration, including (re)afforestation and rehabilitation of degraded land, is included in the array of potential human responses to climate change. However, the implications of climate change for the broader practice of ecological restoration must be considered. In particular, the usefulness of historical eco-system conditions as targets and references must be set against the likelihood that restoring these historic ecosystems is unlikely to be easy, or even possible, in the changed biophysical conditions of the future. We suggest that more consideration and debate needs to be directed at the implications of climate change for restoration practice. CR *ACIA, 2004, IMP WARM ARCT ARCT C *DEP ENV FOOD RUR, 2003, SIT SPEC SCI INT ENC *FOOD RUR AFF EFT, 2005, EC SOC EC VAL EC SER *MILL EC ASS, 2003, EC HUM WELL BEING FR *MILL EC ASS, 2005, LIV OUR MEANS NAT AS *SERI, 2006, SER INT PRIM EC REST *UKCIP, 2005, FUT CLIM SCEN ARONSON J, 1995, RESTOR ECOL, V3, P1 ARONSON J, 2006, ECOLOGICAL RESTORATI, V22, P22 BAKKENES M, 2002, GLOBAL CHANGE BIOL, V8, P390 BELLAMY PH, 2005, NATURE, V437, P245 BERRY PM, 2002, GLOBAL ECOL BIOGEOGR, V11, P453 BOND WJ, 2000, GLOB CHANGE BIOL, V6, P865 BOND WJ, 2003, GLOBAL CHANGE BIOL, V9, P973 BRIGHT C, 1998, LIFE BOUNDS CLEWELL AF, 2000, RESTOR ECOL, V8, P1 CLEWELL AF, 2006, IN PRESS CONSERVATIO COSTANZA R, 1997, NATURE, V387, P253 DAVIS MB, 1986, COMMUNITY ECOLOGY, P269 DAVIS MB, 1994, TRENDS ECOL EVOL, V9, P357 DEGROOT RS, 2002, ECOL ECON, V41, P393 DELCOURT HR, 1991, QUATERNARY ECOLOGY P EGAN D, 2001, HIST ECOLOGY HDB RES FALK D, 2006, FDN RESTORATION ECOL GRIME JP, 1979, PLANT STRATEGIES VEG HAMILTON NRS, 2001, J APPL ECOL, V38, P1374 HAMPE A, 2004, GLOBAL ECOL BIOGEOGR, V13, P469 HANNAH L, 2002, CONSERV BIOL, V16, P264 HANNAH L, 2002, GLOBAL ECOL BIOGEOGR, V11, P485 HAVENS K, 1998, RESTORATION MANAGEME, V16, P68 HIGGS ES, 2003, NATURE DESIGN PEOPLE HOBBS RJ, 1991, NATURE CONSERVATION, V2, P281 HOBBS RJ, 1994, ECOSCIENCE, V1, P346 HOBBS RJ, 2001, RESTOR ECOL, V9, P239 HOBBS RJ, 2006, GLOBAL ECOL BIOGEOGR, V15, P1 HULME PE, 2005, J APPL ECOL, V42, P784 IVERSON LR, 1998, ECOL MONOGR, V68, P465 IVERSON LR, 2004, GLOBAL ECOL BIOGEOGR, V13, P209 JONES TA, 2003, RESTOR ECOL, V11, P281 KING D, 2005, J APPL ECOL, V42, P779 KRAUSS SL, 2004, J APPL ECOL, V41, P1162 LAVENDEL B, 2003, ECOLOGICAL RESTORATI, V21, P199 LESICA P, 1999, RESTOR ECOL, V7, P42 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 MILTON SJ, 2003, FRONT ECOL ENVIRON, V1, P247 MILTON SJ, 2003, S AFR J SCI, V99, P404 MOONEY HA, 2000, INVASIVE SPECIES CHA MUNASINGHE M, 2005, PRIMER CLIMATE CHANG OPDAM P, 2004, BIOL CONSERV, V117, P285 PARMESAN C, 2003, NATURE, V421, P37 PEARSON RG, 2003, GLOBAL ECOL BIOGEOGR, V12, P361 PEARSON RG, 2004, GLOBAL ECOL BIOGEOGR, V13, P471 RICE KJ, 2003, FRONT ECOL ENVIRON, V1, P469 ROOT TL, 2003, NATURE, V421, P57 SAXON E, 2005, ECOL LETT, V8, P53 SKOV F, 2004, ECOGRAPHY, V27, P366 SPENCER JW, 1992, BIOL CONSERV, V62, P77 SWETNAM TW, 1999, ECOL APPL, V9, P1189 TRAVIS JMJ, 2003, P ROY SOC LOND B BIO, V270, P467 VANANDEL J, 2006, RESTORATION ECOLOGY WATSON RT, 2000, LAND USE LAND USE CH WATSON RT, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 WHITE PS, 1997, RESTOR ECOL, V5, P338 WILKINSON DM, 2001, J APPL ECOL, V38, P1371 NR 64 TC 1 J9 RESTOR ECOL BP 170 EP 176 PY 2006 PD JUN VL 14 IS 2 GA 048KY UT ISI:000237947200001 ER PT J AU Marsico, A Giuliano, G Pennetta, L Vurro, M TI Intrinsic vulnerability assessment of the south-eastern Murge (Apulia, southern Italy) SO NATURAL HAZARDS AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES LA English DT Article C1 Univ Bari, Dipartimento Geol & Geofis, Bari, Italy. IRSA, CNR, Bari, Italy. RP Marsico, A, Univ Bari, Dipartimento Geol & Geofis, Bari, Italy. AB Maps of areas with different vulnerability degrees are an integral part of environmental protection and management policies. It is difficult to assess the intrinsic vulnerability of karst areas since the stage and type of karst structure development and its related underground discharge behaviour are not easy to determine. Therefore, some improvements, which take into account dolines, eaves and superficial lineament arrangement, have been integrated into the SIN-TACS R5 method and applied to a karst area of the southeastern Murge (Apulia, southern Italy). The proposed approach integrates the SINTACS model giving more weight to morphological and structural data; in particular the following parameters have been modified: depth to groundwater, effective infiltration action, unsaturated zone attenuation capacity and soil/overburden attenuation capacity. Effective hydro-geological and impacting situations are also arranged using superficial lineaments and karst density. In order to verify the reliability of the modified procedure, a comparison is made with the original SINTACS R5 index evaluated in the same area. The results of both SINTACS index maps are compared with karst and structural features identified in the area and with groundwater nitrate concentrations recorded in wells. The best fitting SINTACS map is then overlaid by the layout of potential pollution centres providing a complete map of the pollution risk in the area. CR *ASS AGR FOR REG P, 1999, PROG ACLA CAR AGR EC *EUR COMM, 1995, 16547EN EUR COMM, P349 *JOINT RES CTR, 1995, CORINE LAND COV ALLER L, 1987, 600287035 US EPA RS BOENZI F, 1991, ITINERARI SPELEOLO 2, V4, P17 BRUNO G, 1992, 2 CONV SPEL PUGL, P91 BRUNO G, 1995, GEOMORPHOLOGY, V12, P313 CIARANFI N, 1988, MEM SOC GEOL ITAL, V41, P449 CIMINO A, 1999, ETUDES GEOGRAPHIE S, V28, P67 CIVITA M, 1994, CART VULNERABILITA A CIVITA M, 2000, VALUTAZIONE CARTOGRA, P226 CUCCHI F, 2000, GROTTE ITALIA, V1, P21 CUCCHI F, 2003, P 1 INT WORKSH AQ VU, P28 DIGERONIMO I, 1970, GEOL ROM, V9, P47 DOERFLINGER N, 1998, GROUNDWATER VULNERAB DOMES P, 1992, ITINERARI SPELEOLOGI, V2, P55 FANIZZI A, 1999, GROTTA S ANTONIO MON, P53 FOSTER SSD, 1987, TNO COMM HYDR RES HA, V38, P69 GIULIANI P, 2000, ITINERARI SPELEOLOGI, V9, P5 GRASSI D, 1982, GEOL APPL IDROEGEOL, V17, P55 IANNONE A, 1979, GEOGR FIS DINAM QUAT, V21, P33 LONGO CA, 2001, SCI TECHNIQUES ENV U, V13, P233 MALIK P, 1999, 29 C INT ASS HYDR BR, P79 MARSICO A, 2003, THESIS U BARI PARISE M, 1999, ITINERARI SPELEOLOGI, V8, P53 PETELETGIRAUD E, 2001, 7 C LIM HYDR FISS ME, V13, P281 PIERI P, 1980, B SPELEOLOGICO MARTI, V2, P13 RICCHETTI G, 1994, C NAZ GEOL AR AV 23 SAURO U, 1991, ITINERARI SPELEOLOGI, V5, P67 SAVINO G, 1993, PUGLIAGROTTE, P21 SGOBBA D, 1995, PUBLIAGROTTE, P59 URICCHIO VF, 1999, ACQUE SOTTERRANEE, V63, P63 NR 32 TC 0 J9 NAT HAZARDS EARTH SYST SCI BP 769 EP 774 PY 2004 VL 4 IS 5-6 GA 882YM UT ISI:000225976300018 ER PT J AU Brandolini, P Faccini, F Piccazzo, M TI Geomorphological hazard and tourist vulnerability along Portofino Park trails (Italy) SO NATURAL HAZARDS AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES LA English DT Article C1 Univ Genoa, DISAM Dept, I-16126 Genoa, Italy. Univ Genoa, DIPTERIS Dept, I-16126 Genoa, Italy. RP Brandolini, P, Univ Genoa, DISAM Dept, I-16126 Genoa, Italy. AB The many trails existing in the coastal area of Portofino Promontory are used by tourists for trekking or as pathways to small villages and beaches. The aim of this paper is to define geomorphological hazard and tourist vulnerability in this area, within the framework of the management and planning of hiking activities in Portofino Natural Park. In particular, processes triggered by gravity, running waters and wave motion, affecting the slopes and the cliff, are considered. The typology of the trails and trail maintenance are also taken into account in relation to weather conditions that can make the excursion routes dangerous for tourists. In conclusion, an operative model is applied for the definition of possible risk scenarios. This model is founded on an inventory and the quantification of geomorphological hazards and tourist vulnerability, in comparison with trail rescue data. The model can be applied to other environments and tourist areas. CR BELL FG, 1999, GEOLOGICAL HAZARDS T BRANDOLINI P, 2004, 32 INT GEOL C FLOR 2 BRANDOLINI P, 2005, 14 M ASS EUR GEOL SO CEVASCO A, 2004, GEAM, V111, P31 CORSI B, 2001, OPHIOLITES, P26 DECHANO LM, 2001, DISASTER PREVENTION, V10, P261 DESTEFANIS A, 1984, GEOMORFOLOGIA AREE C DOWLING R, 2005, GEOTOURISM FACCINI F, 2004, P 2 CONV NAZ GEOL TU FACCINI F, 2005, 18 C ASS INT CLIM AI GLADE T, 2005, LANDSLIDE HAZARD RIS GRECU F, 2003, WORKSH GEOM SENS SYS, P87 PANIZZA M, 1987, INTERN GEOMORPH, V1 SCHUMM SA, 1994, GEOMORPHOLOGY, V10, P129 SOLANA MC, 2003, GEOMORPHOLOGY, V54, P39 SWARBROOKE J, 2003, ADVENTURE TOURISM NE TERRANOVA R, 1999, SQUILIBRI GEOMORFOLO VARNES DJ, 1984, NATURAL HAZARDS, V3 NR 18 TC 0 J9 NAT HAZARDS EARTH SYST SCI BP 563 EP 571 PY 2006 VL 6 IS 4 GA 075PR UT ISI:000239898200007 ER PT J AU Schneider, UA McCarl, BA TI Appraising agricultural greenhouse gas mitigation potentials: effects of alternative assumptions SO AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS LA English DT Article C1 Int Inst Appl Syst Anal, Forestry Project, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria. Texas A&M Univ, Dept Agr Econ, College Stn, TX 77843 USA. RP Schneider, UA, Univ Hamburg, Res Unit Sustainabil & Global Change, Ctr Marine & Climate Res, Bundesstr 55, D-20146 Hamburg, Germany. AB There is interest in society in general and in the agricultural and forestry sectors concerning a land-based role in greenhouse gas mitigation reduction. Numerous studies have estimated the potential supply schedules at which agriculture and forestry could produce greenhouse gas offsets. However, such studies vary widely in critical assumptions regarding economic market adjustments, allowed scope of mitigation alternatives, and region of focus. Here, we examine the effects of using different assumptions on the total emission mitigation supply curve from agriculture and forestry in the United States. To do this we employ the U.S.-based Agricultural Sector and Mitigation of Greenhouse Gas Model and find that variations in such factors can have profound effects on the results. Differences between commonly employed methods shift economic mitigation potentials from -55 to + 85%. The bias is stronger at higher carbon prices due to afforestation and energy crop plantations that reduce supply of traditional commodities. Lower carbon prices promote management changes with smaller impacts on commodity supply. 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Univ E Anglia, Sch Environm Sci, Climat Res Unit, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. Natl Ctr Atmospher Res, Environm & Societal Impacts Grp, Boulder, CO 80307 USA. Minist Mines Environm & Tourism, Climate Change Off, Harare, Zimbabwe. Univ Oxford, Sch Geog, Oxford OX1 3TB, England. RP Hulme, M, Univ E Anglia, Sch Environm Sci, Tyndall Ctr Climate Change Res, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. AB This paper reviews observed (1900-2000) and possible future (2000-2100) continent-wide changes in temperature and rainfall for Africa. For the historic period we draw upon a new observed global climate data set which allows us to explore aspects of regional climate change related to diurnal temperature range and rainfall variability. The latter includes an investigation of regions where seasonal rainfall is sensitive to El Nino climate variability. This review of past climate change provides the context for our scenarios of future greenhouse gas-induced climate change in Africa. These scenarios draw upon the draft emissions scenarios prepared for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Third Assessment Report, a suite of recent global climate model experiments, and a simple climate model to link these 2 sets of analyses. We present a range of 4 climate futures for Africa, focusing on changes in both continental and regional seasonal-mean temperature and rainfall. Estimates of associated changes in global CO2 concentration and global-mean sea-level change are also supplied. These scenarios draw upon some of the most recent climate modelling work. We also identify some fundamental limitations to knowledge with regard to future African climate. These include the often poor representation of El Nino climate variability in global climate models, and the absence in these models of any representation of regional changes in land cover and dust and biomass aerosol loadings. These omitted processes may well have important consequences for future African climates, especially at regional scales. We conclude by discussing the value of the sort of climate change scenarios presented here and how best they should be used in national and regional vulnerability and adaptation assessments. 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Univ E Anglia, Sch Environm Sci, CSERGE, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. RP Adger, WN, Univ E Anglia, Sch Environm Sci, Tyndall Ctr Climate Change Res, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. AB Future changes in climate pose significant challenges for society, not the least of which is how best to adapt to observed and potential future impacts of these changes to which the world is already committed. Adaptation is a dynamic social process: the ability of societies to adapt is determined, in part, by the ability to act collectively. This article reviews emerging perspectives on collective action and social capital and argues that insights from these areas inform the nature of adaptive capacity and normative prescriptions of policies of adaptation. Specifically, social capital is increasingly understood within economics to have public and private elements, both of which are based on trust, reputation, and reciprocal action. The public-good aspects of particular forms of social capital are pertinent elements of adaptive capacity in interacting with natural capital and in relation to the performance of institutions that cope with the risks of changes in climate. Case studies are presented of present-day collective action for coping with extremes in weather in coastal areas in Southeast Asia and of community-based coastal management in the Caribbean. These cases demonstrate the importance of social capital framing both the public and private institutions of resource management that build resilience in the face of the risks of changes in climate. These cases illustrate, by analogy, the nature of adaptation processes and collective action in adapting to future changes in climate. 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AB Limitations of present assessments of climate change impacts on food supplies are addressed, and a new approach is proposed. This uses the concept of vulnerability to hunger as a point of departure. A typology of vulnerability indices is developed and several measures of vulnerability are explored using information from case studies reported in the literature and research coordinated by the author's research group. An initial synthesis of data about climate change and vulnerability to hunger is illustrated for Africa. NR 0 TC 15 J9 GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANGE BP 365 EP 380 PY 1991 PD DEC VL 1 IS 5 GA GY933 UT ISI:A1991GY93300003 ER PT J AU Hoyle, M James, M TI Global warming, human population pressure, and viability of the world's smallest butterfly SO CONSERVATION BIOLOGY LA English DT Article C1 Univ Nottingham, Sch Biol, Nottingham NG7 2RD, England. RP Hoyle, M, Univ Exeter, Sch Biol & Chem Sci, Hatherly Labs, Exeter EX4 4PS, Devon, England. AB The effects of climate change and habitat destruction and their interaction are likely to be the greatest challenge to animal and plant conservation in the twenty first century. We used the world's smallest butterfly, the Sinai baton blue (Pseudophilotes sinaicus), as an exemplar of how global warming and human population pressures may act together to cause species extinctions. We mapped the entire global range of this butterfly and obtained extensive data on the intensity of livestock grazing. As with an increasing number of species, it is confined to a network of small habitat patches and is threatened both by indirect human-induced factors (global warming) and by the direct activities of humans (in this case, livestock grazing and collection of medicinal plants). In the absence of global warming, grazing, and plant collection, our model suggested that the butterfly will persist for at least 200 years. Above a threshold intensity of global warming, the chance of extinction accelerated rapidly, implying that there may be an annual average temperature, specific to each endangered species, above which extinction becomes very much more likely. By contrast, there was no such threshold of grazing pressure-the chance of extinction increased steadily with increasing grazing. The impact of grazing, however, decreased with higher levels of year-to-year variation in habitat quality. The effect of global warming did not depend on the future level of grazing, suggesting that the impacts of global warming and grazing are additive. If the areas of habitat patches individually fall below certain prescribed levels, the butterfly is likely to go extinct. Two patches were very important for persistence: if either were lost the species would probably go extinct. Our results have implications for the conservation management of all species whose habitats are at risk because of the direct activities of humans and in the longer term because of climate change. 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Japan Sci & Technol Agcy, Kawaguchi, Saitama 3320012, Japan. Japan Agcy Marine Earth Sci & Technol, Frontier Res Ctr Global Change, Kanazawa Ku, Yokohama, Kanagawa 2360001, Japan. Res Inst Humanity & Nat, Kita Ku, Kyoto 6038047, Japan. RP Oki, T, Univ Tokyo, Inst Ind Sci, Meguro Ku, Komaba 461, Tokyo 1538505, Japan. AB Water is a naturally circulating resource that is constantly recharged. Therefore, even though the stocks of water in natural and artificial reservoirs are helpful to increase the available water resources for human society, the flow of water should be the main focus in water resources assessments. The climate system puts an upper limit on the circulation rate of available renewable freshwater resources (RFWR). Although current global withdrawals are well below the upper limit, more than two billion people live in highly water-stressed areas because of the uneven distribution of RFWR in time and space. 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Univ Georgia, Dept Anthropol, Athens, GA 30602 USA. RP Magistro, J, Int Dev Enterprises, 10403 W Colfax Ave,Suite 500, Lakewood, CO 80215 USA. AB This paper highlights the relevance of anthropological research to climate science. It suggests that localized scales of analysis, that have been the hallmark of anthropology, can complement global modeling exercises that cannot fully capture the complexities of real life decisions. Community and culture are key dimensions that mediate the interaction between humans and climate, Anthropology has a long-standing tradition of studying vulnerability and adaptation to environmental stresses. Political economy and political ecology approaches contextualize climate risk, highlighting the need to integrate climate products with policy solutions. Microanalyses of risk management and decision-making strategies can bring science and policy closer to the needs of vulnerable groups. Tools and insights from cognitive anthropology also facilitate communication of climate information by ensuring consistency with local knowledge frameworks. CR AGRAWAL A, 1995, DEV CHANGE, V26, P413 BLAIKIE PM, 1994, RISK NATURAL HAZARDS, V1, P1 BROAD K, 2000, PRACT ANTHR, V22, P20 BROAD K, 2000, SCIENCE, V289, P1693 DOWNING TE, 1992, CLIMATE CHANGE VULNE DOWNING TE, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE WORLD, P206 DREZE J, 1989, HUNGER PUBLICATION GLANTZ MH, 1992, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V2, P183 GLANTZ MH, 1996, CURRENTS CHANGE NINO INGRAM KT, 2000, P INT FOR CLIM PRED, P265 KEMPTON W, 1995, ENV VALUES AM CULTUR LAHSEN M, 1999, PARANOIA REASON CASE, P111 MAHMOUD H, 2000, PRACT ANTHR, V22, P11 MORAN E, 1998, PEOPLES PIXELS REMOT NELSON DR, 2000, PRACTICING ANTHR, V22, P6 ORLOVE B, 1999, 99 U CAL I INT STUD ORLOVE B, 2001, LINES WATER NATURE C ORLOVE BS, 2000, NATURE, V403, P68 OTTERSTROM S, 2000, PRACT ANTHR, V22, P15 PFAFF A, 1999, NATURE, V397, P645 PROCTOR JD, 1998, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V8, P227 RAYNER S, 1998, HUMAN CHOICE CLIMATE RHOADES R, 1997, PATHWAYS SUSTAINABLE RIBOT JC, 1996, CLIMATE VARIABILITY, V1, P1 RONCOLI C, IN PRESS READING RAI RONCOLI C, 2000, PRACT ANTHR, V22, P24 SHAW RV, 1998, IHDP P, V1 SMITHERS J, 1997, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V7, P129 STERN PC, 1992, GLOBAL ENV CHANGE UN STERN PC, 1999, MAKING CLIMATE FOREC THOMPSON M, 1998, HUMAN CHOICE CLIMATE, V1, P265 NR 31 TC 1 J9 CLIMATE RES BP 91 EP 96 PY 2001 PD DEC 4 VL 19 IS 2 GA 521BZ UT ISI:000173820000001 ER PT J AU Olalla-Tarraga, MA TI A conceptual framework to assess sustainability in urban ecological systems SO INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT AND WORLD ECOLOGY LA English DT Article C1 Univ Alcala de Henares, Fac Ciencias, Dept Ecol, Alcala De Henares 28871, Madrid, Spain. RP Olalla-Tarraga, MA, Univ Alcala de Henares, Fac Ciencias, Dept Ecol, Campus Univ,Ctra Madrid Barcelona Km 33-600, Alcala De Henares 28871, Madrid, Spain. AB Contemporary approaches in urban ecology should take into account interactions and feedbacks between socio-ecological dimensions. Sustainability indicators are key tools to assess such integration, but initiatives are diverse and there is no agreed framework for the assessment of such interactions and feedbacks. Despite this formidable challenge, several attempts have been made to reach out beyond the traditional subject areas of environment, economy and society in frameworks for indicators of sustainable development. While efforts to develop such a methodology have been made from different scales and levels of analyses, as we descend to the local scale, initiatives are multiplied. There is a need to channel the diversity of these various initiatives and standardize some concepts and methods. In this paper I deal with the pros and cons of the most commonly applied conceptual frameworks, looking for a method able to optimize the main purposes of sustainable development indicators. Starting from this foundation, I build a new proposal combining different methods previously applied in some research fields. A single Hierarchical Framework, developed to assess sustainable forest management is represented graphically through a visual model presented in the Johannesburg Summit of 2002, the Dashboard of Sustainability. An appraisal of the local contribution to global sustainability is obtained by introducing the Ecological Footprint into the methodological procedure. 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Minist Land Infrastruct & Transport, River Bur, Chiyoda Ku, Tokyo 1008918, Japan. RP Connor, RF, CPWC, POB 3015, NL-2601 DA Delft, Netherlands. AB Over the past few decades, a growing number of studies have been conducted on the mechanisms responsible for climate change and the elaboration of future climate scenarios. More recently, studies have emerged examining the potential effects of climate change on human societies, including how variations in hydrological regimes impact water resources management. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's third assessment report, climate change will lead to an intensification of the hydrological cycle, resulting in greater variability in precipitation patterns and an increase in the intensity and frequency of severe storms and other extreme events. In other words, climate change will likely increase the risks of flooding in many areas. Structural and non-structural countermeasures are available to reduce flood vulnerability, but implementing new measures can be a lengthy process requiring political and financial support. In order to help guide such policy decisions, a method for assessing flood vulnerability due to climate change is proposed. In this preliminary study, multivariate analysis has been used to develop a Flood Vulnerability Index (FVI), which allows for a comparative analysis of flood vulnerability between different basins. Once fully developed, the FVI will also allow users to identify the main factors responsible for a basin's vulnerability, making it a valuable tool to assist in priority setting within decision-making processes. CR *CTR EC HYDR, 2003, CLIM CHANG WAT RUL W KAINUMA M, 2002, CLIMATE POLICY ASSES MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 SULLIVAN C, 2002, WORLD DEV, V30, P1195 SULLIVAN CA, 2003, SCOPING STUDY IDENTI NR 5 TC 0 J9 WATER SCI TECHNOL BP 61 EP 67 PY 2005 VL 51 IS 5 GA 931CW UT ISI:000229464400011 ER PT J AU Greenfield, SM TI Society's vulnerability to climate change SO BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY LA English DT Letter NR 0 TC 0 J9 BULL AMER METEOROL SOC BP 430 EP 431 PY 2003 PD APR VL 84 IS 4 GA 670QP UT ISI:000182420400001 ER PT J AU Korf, B TI War, livelihoods and vulnerability in Sri Lanka SO DEVELOPMENT AND CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 Humboldt Univ, Dept Agr Econ & Social Sci, D-10099 Berlin, Germany. RP Korf, B, Humboldt Univ, Dept Agr Econ & Social Sci, Luisenstr 56, D-10099 Berlin, Germany. AB As the number of de-stabilized regions of warfare or post-war conditions worldwide continues to grow, this article investigates how civilians survive in the context of a civil war. It analyses livelihood strategies of farmers in the war-torn areas of Sri Lanka, using an analytical framework based on a revised form of DFID's sustainable rural livelihoods approach, placing particular attention on the institutional reproduction of household capital assets in the war economy. The author delineates a three pillar model of household livelihood strategies focusing on how households (1) cope with the increased level of risk and uncertainty; (2) adjust their economic and social household assets for economic survival; and (3) use their social and political assets as livelihood strategies. Empirical evidence comes from four case study villages in the east of Sri Lanka. Although the four case Studies were very close together geographically, their livelihood outcomes differed considerably depending on the very specific local political geography. The role of social and political assets is essential: while social assets (extended family networks) were important to absorb migrants, political assets (alliances with power holders) were instrumental in enabling individuals, households or economic actors to stabilize or even expand their livelihood options and opportunities. The author concludes that civilians in conflict situations are not all victims (some may also be culprits in the political economy of warfare), and that war can be both a threat and an opportunity, often Lit the same time. 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RUSSIAN ACAD SCI,CTR ECOL & FOREST PROD,MOSCOW 117418,RUSSIA. STATE HYDROL INST,ST PETERSBURG 199053,RUSSIA. RP Krankina, ON, OREGON STATE UNIV,DEPT FOREST SCI,PEAVY HALL 154,CORVALLIS,OR 97330. AB The Russian Federation contains approximately 20% of the world's timber resources and more than half of all boreal forests. These forests play a prominent role in environmental protection and economic development at global, national, and local levels, as well as, provide commodities for indigenous people and habitat for a variety of plant and animal species. The response and feedbacks of Russian boreal forests to projected global climate change are expected to be profound. Large shifts in the distribution (up to 19% area reduction) and productivity of boreal forests are implied by scenarios of General Circulation Models (GCMs), Uncertainty regarding the potential distribution and productivity of future boreal forests complicates the development of adaptation strategies for forest establishment, management, harvesting and wood processing. Although a low potential exists for rapid natural adaptation of long lived, complex boreal forests, recent analyses suggest Russian forest management and utilization strategies should be field tested to assess their potential to assist boreal forests in adaptation to a changing global environment. Current understanding of the vulnerability of Russian forest resources to projected climate change is discussed and examples of possible adaptation measures for Russian forests are presented, including: (1) artificial forestation techniques that can be applied with the advent of failed natural regeneration and to facilitate forest migration northward; (2) silvicultural measures that can influence the species mix to maintain productivity under future climates; (3) identifying forests at risk and developing special management adaptation measures for them; (4) alternative processing and uses of wood and non-wood products from future forests; and (5) potential future infrastructure and transport systems that can be employed as boreal forests shift northward into melting permafrost zones. Current infrastructure and technology can be employed to help Russian boreal forests adapt to projected global environmental change, however many current forest management practices may have to be modified. Application of this technical knowledge can help policymakers identify priorities for climate change adaptation. 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Swedish Univ Agr Sci, S-75007 Uppsala, Sweden. RP Tengo, M, Stockholm Univ, S-10691 Stockholm, Sweden. AB We investigated and compared management practices for dealing with uncertainty in agroecosystem dynamics in two cases of smallholder farming in different parts of the world: northeast Tanzania and east-central Sweden. Qualitative research methods were applied to map farmers' practices related to agroecosystem management. The practices are clustered according to a framework of ecosystem services relevant for agricultural production and discussed using a theoretical model of ecosystem dynamics. Almost half of the identified practices were found to be similar in both cases, with similar approaches for adjusting to and dealing with local variability and disturbance. Practices that embraced the ecological roles of wild as well as domesticated flora and fauna and the use of qualitative biological indicators are identified as tools that built insurance capital for change and enhanced the capacity to respond to changing agroecosystem dynamics. Diversification in time and space, as well as more specific practices for mitigating pest outbreaks and temporary droughts, can limit the effects of disturbance. In both Sweden and Tanzania, we identified social mechanisms for the protection of species that served important functions in the agroecosystem. We also found examples of how old practices served as a source of adaptations for dealing with new conditions and that new knowledge was adjusted to local conditions. The study shows that comparing management practices across scales and in different cultural settings can reveal insights into the capacity of farmers to adjust, respond to, and shape ecosystem dynamics. We emphasize the importance of continuous learning for developing the sustainable management of complex agroecosystems and securing agricultural production for the future. 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Univ Port Elizabeth, Dept Bot, Terr Ecol Res Unit, ZA-6000 Port Elizabeth, South Africa. Univ Port Elizabeth, Dept Bot, So African Hotspots Program Conservat Int, ZA-6000 Port Elizabeth, South Africa. Agr Res Council, Inst Soil Climate & Water, Geoinformat Div, ZA-7613 Die Boord, South Africa. RP Rouget, M, Univ Cape Town, Dept Bot, Inst Plant Conservat, ZA-7701 Rondebosch, South Africa. AB The formulation of an effective strategic plan for biodiversity conservation in the Cape Floristic Region (CFR) requires an assessment of the current situation with regard to habitat transformation, and an explicit framework for predicting the likelihood of remaining habitat (i.e. that potentially available for conservation) being transformed. This paper presents the results of a detailed assessment of the current and future extent of three important factors that threaten biodiversity in the CFR: cultivation for intensive agriculture (including commercial forestry plantations), urbanisation, and stands of invasive (self-sown) alien trees and shrubs. The extent of habitat transformation was mapped at the scale of 1:250,000, using primarily satellite imagery. We compared models derived from a rule-based approach relying on expert knowledge and a regression-tree technique to identify other areas likely to be affected by these factors in future. Cultivation for agriculture has transformed 25.9% of the CFR and dense stands of woody alien plants and urban areas each cover 1.6%. Both models predict that at least 30% of the currently remaining natural vegetation could be transformed within 20 years. There was an overall accuracy of 73% between both models although significant differences were found for some habitat types. Spatial predictions of future agriculture threats derived from the rule-based approach were overestimated relative to the statistical approach, whereas future alien spread was underestimated. Threat assessment was used to derive conservation targets for subsequent stages of conservation planning for the CFR. The importance of integrating vulnerability knowledge into conservation planning is discussed. The choice of vulnerability analysis (future habitat degradation and/or impact on biological entities) and methods will depend on the complexity of the threatening processes and the availability of spatial data. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *ERDAS IM, 1997, ERDAS FIELD GUID ABBITT RJF, 2000, BIOL CONSERV, V96, P169 BEISSINGER SR, 1996, CONSERV BIOL, V10, P1343 CLARKE KC, 1997, ENVIRON PLANN B, V24, P247 COWLING RM, 1991, BIOL CONSERV, V58, P243 COWLING RM, 1992, ECOLOGY FYNBOS NUTR COWLING RM, 1994, BOT DIVERSITY SO AFR, P31 COWLING RM, 1999, FRAMEWORK CONSERVATI COWLING RM, 2001, S AFR J BOT, V67, P15 COWLING RM, 2003, BIOL CONSERV, V112, P191 CRIST PJ, 2000, LANDSCAPE ECOL, V15, P47 DEATH G, 2000, ECOLOGY, V81, P3178 DINERSTEIN E, 1993, CONSERV BIOL, V7, P53 DOBSON AP, 1997, SCIENCE, V275, P550 FAIRBANKS DHK, 1999, S AFRICAN STUDY CLIM FAIRBANKS DHK, 2000, S AFR J SCI, V96, P69 FIELDING AH, 1997, ENVIRON CONSERV, V24, P38 FLATHER CH, 1998, BIOSCIENCE, V48, P365 FRANKLIN J, 1998, J VEG SCI, V9, P733 FRANKLIN JF, 1993, ECOL APPL, V3, P202 GOLDBLATT P, 2000, CAPE PLANTS CONSPECT GUISAN A, 2000, ECOL MODEL, V135, P147 GUNTER JT, 2000, PHOTOGRAMM ENG REM S, V66, P1469 HAWKINS DM, 1995, FORMAL INFERENCE BAS HEIJNIS CE, 1999, BIODIVERS CONSERV, V8, P471 HIGGINS SI, 1999, CONSERV BIOL, V13, P303 HIGGINS SI, 2001, J APPL ECOL, V38, P571 KEMPER J, 1999, BIOL CONSERV, V90, P103 LANDIS JD, 1994, ENVIRON PLANN B, V21, P399 LEMAITRE DC, 1996, J APPL ECOL, V33, P161 LLOYD JW, 1999, GWA199954 I SOIL CLI LOMBARD AT, 1997, CONSERV BIOL, V11, P1101 LOMBARD AT, 1999, PLANT ECOL, V142, P35 MACDONALD IAW, 1986, ECOLOGY MANAGEMENT B, P77 MARGULES CR, 2000, NATURE, V405, P243 MASTER LL, 1991, CONSERV BIOL, V5, P559 MAZE KE, 1999, CORE FLORA CONSERVAT MENON S, 2001, CONSERV BIOL, V15, P501 MITTERMEIER RA, 1998, CONSERV BIOL, V12, P516 MOODY A, 1995, LANDSCAPE ECOL, V10, P363 MYERS N, 1990, ENVIRONMENTALIST, V10, P243 MYERS N, 2000, NATURE, V403, P853 NOSS RF, 1997, SCI CONSERVATION PLA PETERSON AT, 2001, BIOSCIENCE, V51, P363 PRESSEY RL, 1996, FOREST ECOL MANAG, V85, P311 PRESSEY RL, 1997, NATL PARKS PROTECTED, P337 PRESSEY RL, 2001, BIOL CONSERV, V100, P355 PRESSEY RL, 2001, CONSERV BIOL, V15, P275 PRESSEY RL, 2003, BIOL CONSERV, V112, P99 REBELO AG, 1990, BIOL CONSERV, V54, P17 REBELO AG, 1991, PROTEA ATLAS MANUAL REBELO AG, 1992, CONSERV BIOL, V6, P243 REBELO AG, 1992, T ROY SOC S AFR, V48, P55 REICHARD SH, 1997, CONSERV BIOL, V11, P193 RICHARDSON DM, 1992, ECOLOGY FYNBOS NUTR, P271 RICHARDSON DM, 1996, BIODIVERS CONSERV, V5, P607 RICHARDSON DM, 1997, VEGETATION SO AFRICA, P535 RICHARDSON DM, 2000, INVASIVE SPECIES CHA, P303 RIEBSAME WE, 1994, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V28, P45 ROJAS M, 1992, CONSERV BIOL, V6, P170 ROUGET M, 2001, PLANT ECOL, V152, P79 ROUGET M, 2003, BIOL CONSERV, V112, P129 ROUGET M, 2003, BIOL CONSERV, V112, P217 SERNEELS S, 2001, AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON, V85, P65 SHOSHANY M, 2000, PROG PHYS GEOG, V24, P153 SISK TD, 1994, BIOSCIENCE, V44, P592 SOULE ME, 1991, SCIENCE, V253, P744 STOMS DM, 2000, LANDSCAPE ECOL, V15, P21 SWENSON JJ, 2000, LANDSCAPE ECOL, V15, P713 THEOBALD DM, 2000, LANDSCAPE ECOL, V15, P35 TOU JT, 1974, PATTERN RECOGNITION TURPIE JK, 2003, BIOL CONSERV, V112, P233 VAYSSIERES MP, 2000, J VEG SCI, V11, P679 VELDKAMP A, 2001, AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON, V85, P1 VERSFELD DB, 1998, ALIEN INVADING PLANT VLOK JHJ, 1988, S AFR J BOT, V54, P623 WEAR DN, 1998, ECOL APPL, V8, P619 WHITE D, 1997, CONSERV BIOL, V11, P349 WILCOVE DS, 1998, BIOSCIENCE, V48, P607 WILSON EO, 1992, DIVERSITY LIFE WOOD J, 1994, STRELITZIA, V1, P259 WOODWARD FI, 1987, CLIMATE PLANT DISTRI NR 82 TC 20 J9 BIOL CONSERV BP 63 EP 85 PY 2003 PD JUL-AUG VL 112 IS 1-2 GA 679HC UT ISI:000182913800005 ER PT J AU El Naqa, A TI Aquifer vulnerability assessment using the DRASTIC model at Russeifa landfill, northeast Jordan SO ENVIRONMENTAL GEOLOGY LA English DT Article C1 Hashemite Univ, Fac Nat Resources & Environm, Dept Water Technol & Environm, Zarqa 13115, Jordan. RP El Naqa, A, Hashemite Univ, Fac Nat Resources & Environm, Dept Water Technol & Environm, POB 150459, Zarqa 13115, Jordan. AB Groundwater is inherently susceptible to contamination from anthropogenic activities and remediation is very difficult and expensive. Prevention of contamination is hence critical in effective groundwater management. In this paper an attempt has been made to assess aquifer vulnerability at the Russeifa solid waste landfill. This disposal site is placed at the most important aquifer in Jordan, which is known as Amman-Wadi Sir (B2/A7). The daily-generated leachate within the landfill is about 160 m(3)/day and there is no system for collecting and treating this leachate. Therefore, the leachate infiltrates to groundwater and degrades the quality of the groundwater. The area is strongly vulnerable to pollution due to the presence of intensive agricultural activity, the solid waste disposal site and industries. Increasing groundwater demand makes the protection of the aquifer from pollution crucial. Physical and hydrogeological characteristics make the aquifer susceptible to pollution. The vulnerability of groundwater to contamination in the study area was quantified using the DRASTIC model. The DRASTIC model uses the following seven parameters: depth to water, recharge, aquifer media, soil media, topography, impact on vadose zone and hydraulic conductivity. The water level data were measured in the observation wells within the disposal site. The recharge is derived based on precipitation, land use and soil characteristics. The aquifer media was obtained from a geological map of the area. The topography is obtained from the Natural Resources Authority of Jordan, 1:50,000 scale topographic map. The impact on the vadose zone is defined by the soil permeability and depth to water. The hydraulic conductivity was obtained from the field pumping tests. The calculated DRASTIC index number indicates a moderate pollution potential for the study area. CR *US EPA, 1987, DRASTIC US MAN ALLER L, 1987, EPA600287035 ARNOLD D, 1992, STANDARD METHODS EXA BAJALLI W, 1997, INCO MED WAT C AMM 1, P13 BENDER F, 1974, GEOLOGY JORDAN CON S, V7 BRATICEVIC D, 1997, GROUND WATER WINDOWS CHOPRA M, 2001, UNPUB SOLID WASTE MA CHRISTENSEN TH, 1993, CRITICAL REV ENV SCI, V24, P119 DEICHERT LA, 1992, ASAE INT WINT M NASH FARQUHAR G, 1989, CAN J CIVIL ENG, V16, P82 HOWARD J, 1983, MONITORING EVALUATIO, V1 KUISI M, 1992, THESIS U JORDAN LEE GF, 1991, P 5 NAT OUTD ACT C A, P257 LEE GF, 1993, P SARD 93 4 INT LAND MASRI M, 1963, REPORT GEOLOGY AMMAN, P1 MERCHANT JW, 1994, PHOTOGRAMM ENG REM S, V60, P1117 MIKBEL S, 1986, N JB GEOL PALEONT MH, V9, P571 NAGAR BB, 2002, ELECT GREEN J, V17, P10 NAPOLITANO P, 1995, THESIS ITC ENSCHEDE OLEARY P, 1995, DECISION MAKERS GUID, V2 PIPER H, 1944, T AM GEOPHYS UNION, V25, P915 PISCOPO G, 2001, GROUNDWATER VULNERAB RIMAWI O, 1985, THESIS TU MUNCHEN SALAMEH E, 1993, WATER RESOURCES JORD SCHNOOR J, 1996, ENV MODELING FATE TR TADROS Z, 2000, THESIS U JORDAN THIRUMALAIVASAN D, 2001, 22 AS C REM SENS 5 9 NR 27 TC 0 J9 ENVIRON GEOL BP 51 EP 62 PY 2004 PD DEC VL 47 IS 1 GA 886CW UT ISI:000226205500007 ER PT J AU Stalley, P TI Environmental scarcity and international conflict SO CONFLICT MANAGEMENT AND PEACE SCIENCE LA English DT Article C1 George Washington Univ, Washington, DC 20052 USA. RP Stalley, P, George Washington Univ, Washington, DC 20052 USA. AB Since the end of the Cold War, scholars have increasingly turned their attention to examining the link between depletion of renewable resources and conflict. Within this environmental security literature, academic opinion varies across a wide spectrum with some predicting a dark future of environmental "resource wars" both between and within nations, while others question the extent to which environmental variables play any role in inducing conflict. This paper builds on the findings of previous case and statistical studies and presents a cross-national, time-series multivariate analysis of the relationship between militarized international disputes and the environmental variables most commonly cited in the qualitative literature-freshwater, soil, fish, and population. These environmental variables are tested individually and in combination, while controlling for other conflict-generating factors. The general finding is that states suffering from greater levels of environmental scarcity are more likely to be involved in a militarized international dispute. CR 2002, WASHINGTON POST 1002 *OC CONS, 2002, HLTH OC 2002 REP *WRI, 1999, WORLD RES GUID GLOB ACHEN CH, 2000, ANN M POL METH AM PO BECK N, 1998, AM J POLIT SCI, V42, P1260 BROWN LR, 1999, FMALTHUS BUTTS KH, 1997, PARAMETERS, V27, P65 DEUDNEY DH, 1999, CONTESTED GROUNDS SE DURHAM WH, 1979, SCARCITY SURVIVAL CE ESTY DC, 1999, ENV CHANGE SECURITY, V5, P49 FAIRLIE S, 1999, ECOLOGY POLITICS VIO GARTZKE E, 2001, INT ORGAN, V55, P391 GLEDITSCH NP, 2001, ENV CONFLICT GLEICK PH, 1991, B ATOM SCI, V47, P16 GOLDSTONE JA, 2001, ENV CONFLICT GOWA J, 1995, INT ORGAN, V49, P511 HAUGE W, 2001, ENV CONFLICT HOMERDIXON T, 1998, ECOVIOLENCE LINKS EN HOMERDIXON T, 1999, ENV SCARCITY VIOLENC JONES DM, 1996, CONFLICT MANAG PEACE, V15, P163 KAPLAN RD, 1994, ATLANTIC MONTHLY FEB, V273, P44 KING G, 1991, AM J POLIT SCI, V35, P1047 KING G, 2000, AM J POLIT SCI, V44, P347 KLARE MT, 2001, RESOURCE WARS NEW LA LEVY M, 1995, INT SECURITY, V20, P189 LEVY MA, 1995, INT SECURITY, V20, P35 LIBISZEWSKI S, 1999, ECOLOGY POLITICS VIO LOMBORG B, 2001, ENV CONFLICT MATHEWS JT, 1989, FOREIGN AFF, V68, P162 MATTHEW R, 1999, ANARCHY ENV INT RELA MILDARSKY MI, 2001, ENV CONFLICT MYERS N, 1993, ULTIMATE SECURITY EN ONEAL JR, 1997, INT STUD QUART, V41, P267 PEARL J, 1993, GRAPHS CAUSALITY STR RENNER M, 1996, FIGHTING SURVIVAL EN ROZANOV BG, 1990, EARTH TRANSFORMED HU SHIKLOMANOV I, 1993, WATER CRISIS GUIDE W STERN PC, 1992, GLOBAL ENV CHANGE UN TIR J, 2001, ENV CONFLICT TOMZ M, 2001, CLARIFY SOFTWARE INT TOSET HPW, 2000, POLIT GEOGR, V19, P971 TUCKER R, 1999, BTSCS BINARY TIME SE WILLIAMS F, 2002, FINANCIAL TIMES 0719 WILLIAMS M, 1990, EARTH TRANSFORMED HU WOLF A, 1999, ENV CHANGE ADAPTATIO NR 45 TC 0 J9 CONFLICT MANAG PEACE SCI BP 33 EP 58 PY 2003 PD FAL VL 20 IS 2 GA 753RJ UT ISI:000187244100002 ER PT J AU Knapp, RA Hawkins, CP Ladau, J McClory, JG TI Fauna of Yosemite National Park lakes has low resistance but high resilience to fish introductions SO ECOLOGICAL APPLICATIONS LA English DT Article C1 Univ Calif, Sierra Nevada Aquat Res Lab, Crowley Lake, CA 93546 USA. Utah State Univ, Dept Aquat Watershed & Earth Resources, Logan, UT 84322 USA. Cornell Univ, Sect Neurobiol & Behav, Ithaca, NY 14853 USA. RP Knapp, RA, POB 1084, Girdwood, AK 99587 USA. AB The ratio of the number of taxa observed at a site to that expected to occur in the absence of anthropogenic impacts (O/E) is an ecologically meaningful measure of the degree of faunal alteration. We used O/E ratios to describe the response by amphibian, reptile, benthic macroinvertebrate, and zooplankton taxa in originally fishless lakes in Yosemite National Park to the introduction and subsequent disappearance of nonnative fish. To quantify resistance (the degree to which a system is altered when the environment changes) and resilience (the degree to which a system returns to its previous configuration once the perturbation is removed), we compared O/E ratios between lakes that were never stocked, were previously stocked and still contained fish, or were previously stocked but had reverted to a fishless condition. On average, stocked- fish-present sites had 16% fewer taxa than never-stocked sites (O/E = 0.84 vs. 1.00, respectively). This statistically significant difference in O/E ratios indicates that native fauna had relatively low resistance to fish introductions. Resistance was inversely related to fish density and elevation, and directly related to water depth. Vulnerability to impacts of trout predation differed markedly between faunal groups, being high for amphibians, reptiles, conspicuous benthic invertebrates, and zooplankton and low for inconspicuous benthic invertebrates. O/E ratios in stocked-now-fishless sites were significantly higher (1.00) than those in stocked-fish-present sites and were not significantly different from those in never-stocked sites, indicating that this fauna had high resilience. For stocked-now-fishless sites, the relationship between the O/E ratio and the number of years since fish disappearance indicated that taxonomic composition recovered to closely resemble that of never-stocked lakes in less than two years following fish disappearance. Collectively, these result's indicate that despite strong effects of an introduced predatory fish on community structure, these systems recover quickly and predictably following fish removal. CR *SYSTAT, 2000, STAT I US MAN ANDERSON O, 1984, ECOLOGY, V65, P851 ANDERSON RS, 1980, EVOLUTION ECOLOGY ZO, P635 ARMITAGE PD, 1987, HYDROBIOLOGIA, V144, P25 BARBEAU A, 1984, NEUROTOXICOLOGY, V5, P13 BELBIN L, 1993, J VEG SCI, V4, P341 BELK D, 2002, HYDROBIOLOGIA, V486, P49 BIRCH LC, 1948, J ANIM ECOL, V17, P15 BOIANO DM, 1999, THESIS HUMBOLDT STAT BOTTI SJ, 1977, UNPUB STATUS FISH PO BRADFORD DF, 1989, COPEIA, P775 BRADFORD DF, 1994, SOUTHWEST NAT, V39, P323 BRADFORD DF, 1998, CAN J FISH AQUAT SCI, V55, P2478 CARLISLE DM, 1998, J N AM BENTHOL SOC, V17, P286 CARPENTER SR, 1993, TROPHIC CASCADE LAKE CLARK LA, 1992, STAT MODELS S, P377 CLARKE RT, 1996, J APPL STAT, V23, P311 CLARKE RT, 2003, ECOL MODEL, V160, P219 CONNELL JH, 1983, AM NAT, V121, P789 CRUMP ML, 1994, MEASURING MONITORING, P84 DEATH G, 2000, ECOLOGY, V81, P3178 DIEHL S, 1992, ECOLOGY, V73, P1646 DONALD DB, 1994, CAN J ZOOL, V72, P259 DONALD DB, 2001, CAN J FISH AQUAT SCI, V58, P1822 DROST CA, 1996, CONSERV BIOL, V10, P414 ELLIOT MJ, 1992, UNPUB HIST OVERVIEW ERIKSEN C, 1999, FAIRY SHRIMPS CALIFO FAITH DP, 1987, VEGETATIO, V69, P57 FROST TM, 1998, RESTOR ECOL, V6, P336 HAIRSTON NG, 1995, ECOLOGY, V76, P1706 HARRIS RP, 2000, ICES ZOOPLANKTON MET HAWKINS CP, 2000, ECOL APPL, V10, P1456 HAWKINS CP, 2001, BIOASSESSMENT MANAGE, P59 HERBOLD B, 1986, AM NAT, V128, P751 JENNINGS WB, 1992, J HERPETOL, V26, P503 JEPPESEN E, 2003, ECOSYSTEMS, V6, P313 KING RS, 2002, J N AM BENTHOL SOC, V21, P150 KNAPP RA, 1998, RESTOR ECOL, V6, P207 KNAPP RA, 2000, CONSERV BIOL, V14, P428 KNAPP RA, 2001, ECOL MONOGR, V71, P401 KNAPP RA, 2003, ECOL APPL, V13, P1069 KOLAR CS, 2002, SCIENCE, V298, P1233 LEAVITT PR, 1994, CAN J FISH AQUAT SCI, V51, P2411 LEPPA M, 2003, HYDROBIOLOGIA, V498, P97 MARCHANT R, 1997, J N AM BENTHOL SOC, V16, P664 MATTHEWS KR, 1999, J HERPETOL, V33, P615 MATTHEWS KR, 2002, J HERPETOL, V36, P16 MCNAUGHT AS, 1999, LIMNOL OCEANOGR, V44, P127 MERRITT RW, 1996, INTRO AQUATIC INSECT MITTELBACH GG, 1995, ECOLOGY, V76, P2347 MOSS D, 1987, FRESHWATER BIOL, V17, P41 MOSS D, 1999, FRESHWATER BIOL, V41, P167 NICHOLS FH, 1990, MAR ECOL-PROG SER, V66, P95 OSTERMILLER JD, 2004, J N AM BENTHOL SOC, V23, P363 PENNAK RW, 1989, FRESHWATER INVERTEBR PIERCE CL, 1997, FRESHWATER BIOL, V37, P397 PILLIOD DS, 2001, ECOSYSTEMS, V4, P322 PIMM SL, 1991, BALANCE NATURE ECOLO REJMANEK M, 1996, ECOLOGY, V77, P1655 REYNOLDSON TB, 2000, ASSESSING BIOL QUALI, P293 ROY M, 2003, BIOCONTROL, V48, P57 SARNELLE O, 2004, LIMNOL OCEANOGR 2, V49, P1382 SAVIDGE JA, 1987, ECOLOGY, V68, P660 SAVINO JF, 1982, T AM FISH SOC, V111, P255 SCHINDLER DE, 2001, ECOSYSTEMS, V4, P308 SIMBERLOFF D, 1981, BIOTIC CRISES ECOLOG, P53 STACHOWICZ JJ, 2002, ECOLOGY, V83, P2575 STODDARD JL, 1987, J PLANKTON RES, V9, P631 THERNEAU TM, 1997, INTRO RECURSIVE PART VREDENBURG VT, 2004, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V101, P7646 WARD JV, 1982, ANNU REV ENTOMOL, V27, P97 WILCOVE DS, 1998, BIOSCIENCE, V48, P607 WRIGHT JF, 1984, FRESHWATER BIOL, V14, P221 WRIGHT JF, 1995, AUST J ECOL, V20, P181 NR 74 TC 5 J9 ECOL APPL BP 835 EP 847 PY 2005 PD JUN VL 15 IS 3 GA 934QN UT ISI:000229723400006 ER PT J AU Kleinosky, LR Yarnal, B Fisher, A TI Vulnerability of Hampton Roads, Virginia to storm-surge flooding and sea-level rise SO NATURAL HAZARDS LA English DT Article C1 Penn State Univ, Ctr Integrated Reg Assessment, University Pk, PA 16802 USA. RP Yarnal, B, Penn State Univ, Ctr Integrated Reg Assessment, University Pk, PA 16802 USA. AB Sea-level rise will increase the area covered by hurricane storm surges in coastal zones. This research assesses how patterns of vulnerability to storm-surge flooding could change in Hampton Roads, Virginia as a result of sea-level rise. Physical exposure to storm-surge flooding is mapped for all categories of hurricane, both for present sea level and for future sea-level rise. The locations of vulnerable sub-populations are determined through an analysis and mapping of socioeconomic characteristics commonly associated with vulnerability to environmental hazards and are compared to the flood-risk exposure zones. Scenarios are also developed that address uncertainties regarding future population growth and distribution. The results show that hurricane storm surge presents a significant hazard to Hampton Roads today, especially to the most vulnerable inhabitants of the region. In addition, future sea-level rise, population growth, and poorly planned development will increase the risk of storm-surge flooding, especially for vulnerable people, thus suggesting that planning should steer development away from low-lying coastal and near-coastal zones. CR 2004, UN STAT GEOL SURV *HAMPT ROADS PLANN, 2003, HAMPT ROADS 2003 DAT *IHDP, 2001, IHDP UPDATE, V2, P1 *NAT HURR CTR, 2005, HURR AW STORM SURG *NAT HURR CTR, 2005, SAFF SIMP HURR SCAL *NAT WEATH SERV, 2005, HURR STORM SURG FOR *NOAA COAST SERV C, 1999, COMM VULN ASS TOOL N *NPA DAT SERV, 1998, REG EC PROJ SERV *VIRG DEP EM MAN, 2005, LIBR HURR HIST COAST *VIRG EC DEV PARTN, 2004, ALL INF EXCH GEOGR I BINGHAM E, 1991, VIRGINIA GEOGRAPHER, V23, P19 BOON J, 2004, 3 FACES ISABEL STORM CHURCH JA, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 CLARK GE, 1998, MITIGATION ADAPTATIO, V3, P59 CLARK WC, 2000, ASSESSING VULNERABIL COBB HD, 1991, WEATHERWISE, V44, P24 CUTTER SL, 2000, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V90, P713 FLATHER RA, 1993, CLIMATE SEA LEVEL CH, P229 GEORGE D, 2003, SPSS WINDOWS STEP ST GONNERT G, 2004, NAT HAZARDS, V32, P211 JELESNIANSKI C, 1992, 48 NOAA NWS, V48 KASPERSON JX, 2001, INT WORKSH VULN GLOB KLEINOSKY LR, 2005, IN PRESS MITIGATION LEATHERMAN SP, VANISHING LANDS SEA LUERS AL, 2003, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V13, P255 MCINNES KL, 2003, NAT HAZARDS, V30, P187 MCLEAN RF, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, P343 NAJJAR RG, 2000, CLIMATE RES, V14, P219 NICHOLLS RJ, 1996, COAST MANAGE, V24, P301 NICHOLLS RJ, 1999, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V9, P69 PICKARD A, 2003, HAMPTON ROAD 200 202 POWARS D, 2000, 1622 US GEOL SURV, V1612 PSUTY NP, 1992, OCEAN MANAGEMENT GLO, P502 SCHNEIDER S, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, P75 TSYBAN AV, 1990, CLIMATE CHANGE IPCC, P1 WALKER HJ, 1987, GEOMORPHIC SYSTEMS N, V2, P51 WU SY, 2002, CLIMATE RES, V22, P255 NR 37 TC 0 J9 NATURAL HAZARDS BP 43 EP 70 PY 2007 PD JAN VL 40 IS 1 GA 125NR UT ISI:000243449300003 ER PT J AU Zerbe, N TI Feeding the famine? American food aid and the GMO debate in Southern Africa SO FOOD POLICY LA English DT Editorial Material C1 Humboldt State Univ, Dept Govt & Polit, Arcata, CA 95521 USA. Catholic Univ Louvain, Ctr Philosophy Law, Louvain, Belgium. RP Zerbe, N, Humboldt State Univ, Dept Govt & Polit, Arcata, CA 95521 USA. AB The inclusion of genetically modified maize in food aid shipments to Southern Africa during the 2002 food crisis rekindled debates over agricultural biotechnology. As the region edged ever closer to famine - putting the lives to some 14 million Africans at risk - corporate pundits, government officials and biotech's critics debated the health and environmental dangers posed by the new technology. By situating the decision to send genetically modified maize to Southern Africa in the context of US-European debates over agricultural biotechnology, it becomes clear that the promotion of biotechnology has nothing to do with ending hunger in the region. Indeed, American food aid shipments to Southern Africa have little to do with the famine at all. Instead, I argue that US food aid policy following the 2002 crisis was intended to promote the adoption of biotech crops in Southern Africa, expanding the market access and control of transnational corporations and undermining local smallholder production thereby fostering greater food insecurity on the Continent. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *AM CORN GROW ASS, 2001, CORN GROW 3 ANN SURV *BBC, 2003, BISH AFRICA HOSTAGE *EC, 2003, WTO CAS GMOS *FAO, 2002, FOOD SUPPL CROP PROS *GAO, 2003, FOR ASS SUST EFF NEE *GRAIN, 2002, BETT DEAD GM FED *GRREENP, 2002, USAID GM SOOD AID WATSON RT, 1998, REGIONAL IMPACTS CLI, V1, P1 *IRIN, 2002, MAL IMF DEN CULP MAL *OECD, 2000, AGR POL OECD COUNTR *OXF, 2002, 89 OXF *PION HI BRED INT, 2000, EL GRAIN ACC SURV *REUT, 1999, ADM WARNS SUPPL BEG *SADC, 2002, REG EM FOOD ASS REP *UNECA, 2002, HARN TECHN SUST DEV *US DEP STAT, 2002, QUEST ANSW US FOOD A *US HOUS REPR COMM, 2002, DEV FOOD SEC CRIS SO *USAID, 1997, DEVELOPMENTS SUM, P1 *USAID, 2003, BIOT FACT SHEET *USDA FAS, 2003, US EXP SAL REP *WORLD MET ORG, 1995, GLOB CLIM SYST REV C BOND P, 2003, BUSH S AFRICA COUNTE CAUVAIN H, 2002, ZAMBIAN LEADER BAN G DEVEREUX S, 2002, STATE DISASTER CAUSE DIVEN PJ, 2001, FOOD POLICY, V26, P455 HALL T, 2002, ECONOMIST SEP HULME M, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE SO AF JUBILEE, 2000, IMF BOSS BLAMES WORL LEVIDOW L, 2000, ENVIRONMENT, V41, P10 LEVIDOW L, 2000, INT J BIOTECHNOLOGY, V2, P257 MAIL, 2002, ZAMBIA REJECTS UN AP PETTIFOR A, 2003, MALAWI FEOCED DANCE ROBINSON S, 2002, TIME 1124 SEN AK, 1981, Q J ECON, V1, P433 SEN AK, 1980, WORLD DEV, V8, P613 SHARMA D, 2002, ACHIEVING EFFECTIVE VIDAL J, 2002, GUARDIAN OCT WEISS R, 2002, US GE TAINTED FOOD A ZERBE N, 2002, UNPUB INT STUD ASS ZERBE N, 2003, THESIS YORK U TORONT NR 40 TC 3 J9 FOOD POLICY BP 593 EP 608 PY 2004 PD DEC VL 29 IS 6 GA 886KR UT ISI:000226226600001 ER PT J AU Lewsey, C Cid, G Kruse, E TI Assessing climate change impacts on coastal infrastructure in the Eastern Caribbean SO MARINE POLICY LA English DT Article C1 NOAA, Int Programs Off, Natl Ocean Serv, Silver Spring, MD 20910 USA. RP Lewsey, C, NOAA, Int Programs Off, Natl Ocean Serv, 1315 East West Highway,SSMC3, Silver Spring, MD 20910 USA. AB Expected effects of changes in global climate include warmer temperatures, rising sea levels, and potentially more frequent and severe extreme weather events such as hurricanes and tropical storms. Low-lying states in the Caribbean are especially vulnerable to these effects, posing significant risks to public safety and natural resources. This paper highlights expected trends in the Eastern Caribbean and examines the impacts of urbanization and supporting infrastructure, siting of major structures in high-hazard areas, and negative land-use practices on fragile coastal ecosystems. It focuses on the need to reduce the vulnerability of coastal infrastructure and land uses, arguing for effective linkages between climate change issues and development planning. The paper also provides general recommendations and identifies challenges for the incorporation of climate change impacts and risk assessment into long-term land-use national development plans and strategies. Published by Elsevier Ltd. CR 2002, JAMAICA SUSTAINABLE *ANT BARB GOV, 2001, ANT97GC299 ANT BARB *BEL GOV, 2001, BEL COUNTR PAP NATL *CARR ENV NETW, 1997, 5980832 CARR ENV NET *CEP UNEP CEP, 2002, MAR ISS *CEP, 1989, IMPL CLIM CHANG WID *CEP, 1997, 38 UNEP CEP *COMM BAH, 2001, UNPUB UN FRAM CONV C *CSI, 1998, PLANN COAST CHANG E *EARTHSC PUBL LTD, 1999, UN ENV PROGR CARIBB *FAO, 1999, WORK PAP ENV NAT RES *GOV BARB, 2001, BARB 1 NAT COMM UN F *GOV SAINT LUC, 2002, COAST ZON MAN SAINT *INT PAN CLIM CHAN, 2001, CLIM CHANG 2001 IMP *IPCC, 1991, CLIM CHANG IPCC RESP WATSON RT, 1998, REGIONAL IMPACTS CLI, V1, P1 *ISL RES FDN, 1996, GUID BEST MAN PRACT *UNEP, 1997, GLOB ENV OUTL *US DEP COMM NOAA, 2001, REV EC INSTR METH M *W AUSTR WAT RIV C, 2000, WAT FACT SHEET, V11 ELLISON AM, 1996, BIOTROPICA A, V28, P549 LEMAY M, 1298 INT AM DEV BANK VERMEIREN J, 2000, WORLD BANK DISASTER, V2 WASON A, 1999, STAT BUILD COD CARIB NR 24 TC 0 J9 MAR POLICY BP 393 EP 409 PY 2004 PD SEP VL 28 IS 5 GA 837YD UT ISI:000222676400004 ER PT J AU Tol, RSJ TI Is the uncertainty about climate change too large for expected cost-benefit analysis? SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 Univ Hamburg, Ctr Marine & Climate Res, D-2000 Hamburg, Germany. Free Univ Amsterdam, Inst Environm Studies, NL-1081 HV Amsterdam, Netherlands. Carnegie Mellon Univ, Ctr Integrated Study Human Dimens Global Change, Pittsburgh, PA 15213 USA. RP Tol, RSJ, Univ Hamburg, Ctr Marine & Climate Res, D-2000 Hamburg, Germany. AB Cost-benefit analysis is only applicable if the variances of both costs and benefits are finite. In the case of climate change, the variances of the net present marginal costs and benefits of greenhouse gas emission reduction need to be finite. Finiteness is hard, if not impossible to prove. The opposite is easier to establish as one only needs to show that there is one, not impossible representation of the climate change with infinite variance. The paper shows that all relevant current variables of the FUND model have finite variances. However, there is a small chance that climate change reverses economic growth in some regions. In that case, the discount rate becomes negative and the net present marginal benefits of greenhouse gas emission reduction becomes very large. So large, that its variance is unbounded. One could interpret this as an indication that cost-benefit analysis is invalid. Alternatively, one could argue that the infinity is present in both the base case and the policy scenario, and therefore irrelevant; in that interpretation, cost-benefit analysis is a valid tool. 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ETC UK, N Shields NE30 1NQ, Northd, England. RP O'Brien, G, Northumbria Univ, Sch Appl Sci, Newcastle Upon Tyne NE1 8ST, Tyne & Wear, England. AB Climate change, although a natural phenomenon, is accelerated by human activities. Disaster policy response to climate change is dependent on a number of factors, such as readiness to accept the reality of climate change, institutions and capacity, as well as willingness to embed climate change risk assessment and management in development strategies. These conditions do not yet exist universally. A focus that neglects to enhance capacity-building and resilience as a prerequisite for managing climate change risks will, in all likelihood, do little to reduce vulnerability to those risks. Reducing vulnerability is a key aspect of reducing climate change risk. To do so requires a new approach to climate change risk and a change in institutional structures and relationships. A focus on development that neglects to enhance governance and resilience as a prerequisite for managing climate change risks will, in all likelihood, do little to reduce vulnerability to those risks. CR *ADB, 2003, POV CLIM CHANG RED 1 *BBC, 2005, NEV AG 0703 *COP, 2002, SPEC CLIM CHANG FUND *DFID, 2004, DIS RISK RED DEV CON *DFID, 2004, KEY SHEET 06 AD CLIM *EMDAT, 2005, EMDAT INT DIS DAT CT *FEINST INT FAM CT, 2004, AMB CHANG HUM NGOS P *IFRC, 2002, WORLD DIS REP 2002 *IFRC, 2003, WORLD DIS REP 2003 *IPCC, 2001, CLIM CHANG 2001 WORK *MAN DECL, 2004, MAN DECL STAT WCDR I *MUN RE GROUP, 2002, ANN REV NAT CAT *NAT HLTH SERV, 2004, HEATW PLAN ENGL PROT *SPHER PROJ, 2005, HUM CHART MIN STAND *UKCIP, 1998, CLIM CHANG SCEN UK S *UN ISDR, 2001, REP WORK GROUP 3 ISD *UN ISDR, 2003, WORLD SUMM SUST DEV *UN ISDR, 2004, LIV RISK GLOB REV DI *UN ISDR, 2005, WORLD C DIS RED KOB *UN, 2002, REP WORLD SUMM SUST *UNDP, 2004, NAT AD PROGR ACT SUP *UNDP, 2004, RED DIS RISK CHALL D *UNFCCC, 1992, UN FRAM CONV CLIM CH *UNICEF, 2005, EM FIELD HDB GUID UN *UNISDR, 2002, INT STRAT DIS RED MI *VARG, 2005, DIS RISK MAN CHANG C *WORLD BANK, 2005, WORLD DEV IND 2005 ADGER WN, 2001, DEV CHANGE, V32, P667 ADGER WN, 2003, COUNTRY LEVEL RISK M ALEXANDER D, 2002, DISASTER PREVENTION, V1, P209 ALEXANDER D, 2002, PRINCIPLES EMERGENCY ALOISI S, 2005, SENEGAL MULLS GREEN BHATT M, 2002, CORPORATE SOCIAL RES BLONG R, 2004, NATURAL HAZARDS RISK BURTON I, 2004, LOOK LEAP RISK MANAG CANNON T, 2000, FLOODS, P43 CARDONA OD, 2004, DISASTER RISK RISK M DESSAI S, 2001, DEFINING EXPERIENCIN DILLEY M, 2005, NATURAL DISASTER HOT EMANUEL K, 2005, DIVINE WIND HIST SCI HARDOY JE, 2001, ENV PROBLEMS URBANIS HARMER A, 2004, 18 ODI HPG HEWITT K, 1997, REGIONS RISK GEOGRAP, V1, P1 HILDITCH L, 2005, EU HEROES VILLAINS W HOFMANN CA, 2004, 17 HPG ODI KELMAN I, 2005, ISLAND VULNERABILITY KENT R, 1999, NATURAL DISASTER MAN, P293 KING DA, 2004, SCIENCE, V303, P176 KREIMER A, 2001, OUR PLANET, V11 LARSEN J, 2003, RECORD HEAT WAVE EUR MAGRATH J, 2004, SMOKE THREATS RESPON MASIKA R, 2002, GENDER DEV CLIMATE C MASKREY A, 1993, DESASTRES SON NATURA MCENTIRE DA, 2002, PUBLIC ADMIN REV, V62, P267 MIDDLETON N, 1998, DISASTERS DEV POLITI MILETI DS, 1999, DISASTERS DESIGN REA OBRIEN G, 2004, P INT EM MAN SOC 11 OBRIEN G, 2005, DISASTER PREVENTION, V14, P353 PELLING M, 2001, ENV HAZARDS, V3, P49 PERRY RW, 2003, DISASTERS, V27, P336 QUARANTELLI E, 2001, DISASTER PREVENTION, V10, P325 REISNER M, 2003, DANGEROUS PLACE CALI SCAWTHORN C, 2000, WATER URBAN AREAS, P200 SMITH JB, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, P915 STEWART F, 2003, 108 U OXF QUEEN EL H SUSMAN P, 1983, INTERPRETATIONS CALA, P263 TOBIN GA, 1999, ENV HAZARDS, V1, P13 TOSHIHISA T, 1999, P 6 JAP US WORKDH UR VLEK P, 2005, NOTH BEG NOTH CREEP WISNER B, 2003, ENV HLTH EM DIS PRAC WISNER B, 2005, KOBE INTERPRETATIVE YODMANI S, 2001, AS PAC FOR POV 5 9 F NR 72 TC 0 J9 DISASTERS BP 64 EP 80 PY 2006 PD MAR VL 30 IS 1 GA 017LA UT ISI:000235693900006 ER PT J AU Jain, VK Davidson, RA TI Application of a regional hurricane wind risk forecasting model for wood-frame houses SO RISK ANALYSIS LA English DT Article C1 Cornell Univ, Sch Civil & Environm Engn, Ithaca, NY 14853 USA. AIR Worldwide Corp, Boston, MA USA. RP Davidson, RA, Cornell Univ, Sch Civil & Environm Engn, Hollister Hall, Ithaca, NY 14853 USA. AB Hurricane wind risk in a region changes over time due to changes in the number, type, locations, vulnerability, and value of buildings. A model was developed to quantitatively estimate changes over time in hurricane wind risk to wood-frame houses (defined in terms of potential for direct economic loss), and to estimate how different factors, such as building code changes and population growth, contribute to that change. The model, which is implemented in a simulation, produces a probability distribution of direct economic losses for each census tract in the study region at each time step in the specified time horizon. By changing parameter values and rerunning the analysis, the effects of different changes in the built environment on the hurricane risk trends can be estimated and the relative effectiveness of hypothetical mitigation strategies can be evaluated. Using a case study application for wood-frame houses in selected counties in North Carolina from 2000 to 2020, this article demonstrates how the hurricane wind risk forecasting model can be used: (1) to provide insight into the dynamics of regional hurricane wind risk - the total change in risk over time and the relative contribution of different factors to that change, and (2) to support mitigation planning. Insights from the case study include, for example, that the many factors contributing to hurricane wind risk for wood-frame houses interact in a way that is difficult to predict a priori, and that in the case study, the reduction in hurricane losses due to vulnerability changes (e. g., building code changes) is approximately equal to the increase in losses due to building inventory growth. The potential for the model to support risk communication is also discussed. CR *ENR, 2002, BUILD COST IND HIST *IBHS, 1998, LAND US PLANN NAT HA *IIPLR, 1995, COMM EXP COMM PROT H *ISO, 2002, INS SERV OFF MIT ONL *NAHB, 2004, HOUS FACTS FIG TREND *NCDEM, 2004, STAT 322 NAT HAZ MIT *NIBS, 2002, HAZUS WIND LOSS EST *US BUR CENS, 2003, POP COUNT DEC CENS N *US BUR CENS, 2003, TABL C3 PER CAP INC *US BUR CENS, 2004, TABL 5 HOUS UN EST 1 *US DEP HUD, 2001, COMM INN LESS LEARN BARNES J, 2001, N CAROLINAS HURRICAN BLAIKIE PM, 1994, RISK NATURAL HAZARDS, V1, P1 CHESSON HW, 2003, THEOR DECIS, V54, P57 DAVIDSON RA, 2003, J URBAN PLAN D-ASCE, V129, P211 ENGLEHARDT JD, 1996, RISK ANAL, V16, P81 GEORGIOU PN, 1985, THESIS U W ONTARIO C HEINZ HJ, 2000, HIDDEN COSTS COASTAL HUANG Z, 2001, J WIND ENG IND AEROD, V89, P605 JAIN VK, IN PRESS J INFRASTRU JAIN VK, 2005, NATURAL HAZARDS REV, V6, P88 KHAN MS, 1994, HURRICANES 1992 KUMAR VJ, 2005, THESIS CORNELL U KUNREUTHER HC, 1998, J RISK UNCERTAINTY, V16, P279 ORESKES N, 1994, SCIENCE, V263, P641 PIELKE RA, 2000, J CLIMATE, V13, P3625 STEWART MG, 2003, J WIND ENG IND AEROD, V91, P671 STEWART MG, 2003, NATURAL HAZARDS REV, V4, P12 SVENSON O, 1984, INFOR, V22, P196 NR 29 TC 0 J9 RISK ANAL BP 45 EP 58 PY 2007 PD FEB VL 27 IS 1 GA 144LS UT ISI:000244798100007 ER PT J AU Mahmood, R Meo, M Legates, DR Morrissey, ML TI The CERES-rice model-based estimates of potential monsoon season rainfed rice productivity in Bangladesh SO PROFESSIONAL GEOGRAPHER LA English DT Article C1 Western Kentucky Univ, Bowling Green, KY 42101 USA. Univ Oklahoma, Sci & Publ Policy Program, Norman, OK 73019 USA. Univ Oklahoma, Dept Civil Engn, Norman, OK 73019 USA. Univ Delaware, Ctr Climate Res, Newark, DE 19716 USA. Univ Oklahoma, Sch Meteorol, Norman, OK 73019 USA. RP Mahmood, R, Western Kentucky Univ, Bowling Green, KY 42101 USA. AB Agricultural practices in Bangladesh are largely dependent on the monsoonal rainfall. Historically, Bangladesh often experiences severe droughts and floods during the monsoon months, with significant crop losses during both extreme conditions. This article provides a quantitative assessment of potential monsoon-season aman rice for four transplanting dates: 1 June, 1 July, 15 July, and 15 August. A crop-growth simulation model, the CERES-Rice, is applied to sixteen locations representing major rice-growing regions of Bangladesh to determine baseline yield estimates for four transplanting dates. The applications were conducted for 1975 through 1987. Average potential yield in Bangladesh is 6,907, 5,039, 3,637, and 1,762 kg hat for the above transplanting dates, respectively. In other words, Bangladesh would obtain 27 percent, 48 percent, and 75 percent less yield for 1 July, 15 July, and 15 August transplanting, respectively, than for 1 June transplanting. Potential yield vulnerability is the least for 1 June transplanting (up to 5 percent) and the highest (up to 66 percent) for 15 July transplanting date. The model applications show that regional variations exist for potential yield and yield vulnerability for a particular transplanting date. In addition, response of yield and vulnerability for a region changes with transplanting dates. 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SO HYDROBIOLOGIA LA English DT Article C1 Middlesex Univ, Flood Hazard Res Ctr, Enfield EN3 4SA, Middx, England. Univ Cambridge, Dept Geog, Coastal Res Unit, Cambridge CB2 3EN, England. Univ Southampton, Sch Civil Engn & Environm, Southampton SO17 1BJ, Hants, England. RP McFadden, L, Middlesex Univ, Flood Hazard Res Ctr, Enfield EN3 4SA, Middx, England. AB A Wetland Change Model has been developed to identify the vulnerability of coastal wetlands at broad spatial (regional to global (mean spatial resolution of 85 km)) and temporal scales (modelling period of 100 years). The model provides a dynamic and integrated assessment of wetland loss, and a means of estimating the transitions between different vegetated wetland types and open water under a range of scenarios of sea-level rise and changes in accommodation space from human intervention. This paper is an overview of key issues raised in the process of quantifying broad-scale vulnerabilities of coastal wetlands to forcing from sea-level rise discussing controlling factors of tidal range, sediment availability and accommodation space, identification of response lags and defining the threshold for wetland loss and transition. 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AB Western social and political thought reveals two principle kinds of domination over nature. The first resembles the passionate drive of Hobbesian vainglory, the second the calculated procedures of Weberian herrschaft. Both forms of Western domination need to be understood before the roots of the current ecological crisis can be exposed. This article first traces the historical roots of each kind of domination. Next it examines two brief cases to illustrate the distinction between the two and the utility of the conceptual framework. Teddy Roosevelt exemplifies how vainglory can limit the environmental benefits of stewardship. World military organizations exemplify how herrschaft's rationalized behavior produces irrational results - reducing environmental security in the name of security. The future success of the environmental movement will rest on its ability to devise different solutions to these different kinds of human domination. CR *BIBLE, GENESIS BENDIX R, 1977, M WEBER INTELLECTUAL BRADFORD W, 1956, AM PURITANS THEIR PR CUTRIGHT PR, 1985, T ROOSEVELT MAKING C DRYZEK J, 1990, DISCRUSIVE DEMOCRACY GALTUNG J, 1982, ENV DEV MILITARY ACT HOBBES T, 1980, LEVIATHAN HOBBES T, 1991, CIVE MAN CITIZEN HULL DL, 1987, PHILOS EVOLUTION, V37 JEFFERSON T, 1984, T JEFFERSON WRITINGS KAY J, 1988, ENV ETHICS, V10 NASH RF, 1989, RIGHTS NATURE HIST E PAEHLKE RC, 1989, ENV FUTURE PROGR POL RENNER M, 1989, STATE WORLD 1989 RENNER M, 1991, STATE WORLD 1991 ROOSEVELT T, 1893, WILDERNESS HUNTER ROOSEVELT T, 1967, WRITINGS T ROOSEVELT SEED J, 1985, DEEP ECOLOGY WEBER M, 1958, PROTESTANT ETHIC WEBER M, 1964, M WEBER ESSAYS SOCIO WEBER M, 1978, EC SOC WESTING AH, 1986, GLOBAL RESOURCES INT WHITE L, 1968, DYNAMO VIRGIN RECONS WOLIN S, 1981, POLITICAL THEORY, V9 NR 24 TC 0 J9 J POLIT MIL SOC BP 181 EP 195 PY 1993 PD WIN VL 21 IS 2 GA MU761 UT ISI:A1993MU76100003 ER PT J AU Folke, C TI Resilience: The emergence of a perspective for social-ecological systems analyses SO GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS LA English DT Article C1 Stockholm Univ, Dept Syst Ecol, CTM, Ctr Transdisciplinary Environm Res, SE-10691 Stockholm, Sweden. Royal Swedish Acad Sci, Beijer Int Inst Ecol Econ, Stockholm, Sweden. RP Folke, C, Stockholm Univ, Dept Syst Ecol, CTM, Ctr Transdisciplinary Environm Res, SE-10691 Stockholm, Sweden. AB The resilience perspective is increasingly used as an approach for understanding the dynamics of social-ecological systems. This article presents the origin of the resilience perspective and provides an overview of its development to date. With roots in one branch of ecology and the discovery of multiple basins of attraction in ecosystems in the 1960-1970s, it inspired social and environmental scientists to challenge the dominant stable equilibrium view. The resilience approach emphasizes non-linear dynamics, thresholds, uncertainty and surprise, how periods of gradual change interplay with periods of rapid change and how such dynamics interact across temporal and spatial scales. The history was dominated by empirical observations of ecosystem dynamics interpreted in mathematical models, developing into the adaptive management approach for responding to ecosystem change. Serious attempts to integrate the social dimension is currently taking place in resilience work reflected in the large numbers of sciences involved in explorative studies and new discoveries of linked social-ecological systems. Recent advances include understanding of social processes like, social learning and social memory, mental models and knowledge-system integration, visioning and scenario building, leadership, agents and actor groups, social networks, institutional and organizational inertia and change, adaptive capacity, transformability and systems of adaptive governance that allow for management of essential ecosystem services. (c) 2006 Published by Elsevier Ltd. 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ECOL, V6, P1 WALKER BH, 2004, ECOL SOC, V9, P5 WALKER BH, 1981, J ECOL, V69, P473 WALKER BH, 1992, CONSERV BIOL, V6, P18 WALKER BH, 2006, ECOL SOC, V11, P1 WALKER SM, 2002, J INST BRIT TELECO 1, V3, P19 WALTERS CJ, 1986, ADAPTIVE MANAGEMENT WESTLEY F, 2002, PANARCHY UNDERSTANDI, P333 WESTOBY M, 1989, J RANGE MANAGE, V42, P266 YOUNG OR, 2000, I DIMENSIONS ENV CHA ZIMMERER KS, 1994, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V84, P108 ZIMOV SA, 1995, AM NAT, V146, P765 NR 185 TC 7 J9 GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANGE BP 253 EP 267 PY 2006 PD AUG VL 16 IS 3 GA 073OJ UT ISI:000239752200004 ER PT J AU Baxter, J Greenlaw, K TI Explaining perceptions of a technological environmental hazard using comparative analysis SO CANADIAN GEOGRAPHER-GEOGRAPHE CANADIEN LA English DT Article C1 Univ Western Ontario, Dept Geog, London, ON N6A 5C2, Canada. Canadian Int Sch, Singapore, Singapore. RP Baxter, J, Univ Western Ontario, Dept Geog, London, ON N6A 5C2, Canada. AB This study addresses one of the main research problems in the area of environmental hazard risk-to explain why perception of threat from the same hazard varies between groups. We argue that the cultural theory of risk, explicitly place-contingent ways of life anti worldviews that support those ways of life, goes a long way towards explaining risk perception differences in the communities of Kinuso, Fort Assiniboine and Barrhead Alberta. Fifty-five in-depth interviews were conducted within these communities; three of the four communities are closest to the Alberta Special (hazardous) Waste Treatment Facility. A regional donut pattern of interviewee concern is partially explained as differential attachment to ways of life like farming, tourism and hunting for the concerned and amenityproximate rural living for the unconcerned. These relationships are further supported by worldviews like distrust and sensitivity to equity for the concerned and the price of progress for the unconcerned. Though this study is not about siting process per se, detailed conversations about the siting process indicate that the perceptions of risk (as concern) in the operational phase of this hazard were solidified early on and are likely difficult to change. 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It has been pursued collectively, with mentor, colleagues, students, and friends as a set of research questions related to hazards, hunger, and sustainable development. Regarding hazard, I tried to understand why people persist in occupying areas subject to natural and technological hazards and how adaptation made this possible. An extended stay in Africa to research both environment and development led to new queries. Why does hunger persist amid a world of plenty, and what can be done to end it? Can there be a transition to sustainability that over the next two generations would meet human needs and reduce hunger and poverty while maintaining the essential life support systems of the planet? All three themes and the research methods used to pursue them come together in an emerging sustainability science. 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RP Ackerman, GA, Monterey Inst Int Studies, WMD Terrorism Res Program, Ctr Nanoproliferat Studies, 460 Pierce St, Monterey, CA 93940 USA. AB This paper describes the evolving nature of threats and vulnerabilities associated with biological disasters with animal origins, and introduces some of the pitfalls and opportunities associated with anticipating future threats. Evolving threats and vulnerabilities include continued deforestation and encroachment on virgin habitats, the effects of globalisation on trade and transportation, the increased interdependence and social vulnerability of modern society, the commingling of intensive agriculture and traditional farming methods, the periodic appearance of pandemics and epizootics, and indications that numerous human actors are displaying an increasing interest in and capability of using biological agents as weapons. These developments must be viewed in the context of various impediments to accurately gauging future threats, such as the appearance of new elements that depart from current trends and the inherent difficulty in anticipating human, and especially terrorist, behaviour. The paper concludes with some broad recommendations for structuring a policy response to the threat in an environment of uncertainty about the future. CR *MINT I INT STUD, 2005, MONT WMD TERR DAT CASTILLOCHAVEZ C, 2002, MATH APPROACHES EM 1, V125 EPSTEIN J, 2004, CONTAINMENT STRATEGY FREUDENBURG WR, 1992, SOCIAL THEORIES RISK, P229 GLEICK J, 1988, CHAOS MAKING NEW SCI GODEL K, 1931, MONATSHEFTE MATH PHY, V38, P173 GOTTFRIED RS, 1985, BLACK DEATH KURTZ CF, 2003, IBM SYST J, V42, P462 MCNEILL W, 1998, PLAGUES PEOPLES PETERSEN JL, 2000, OUT BLUE TALEB N, 2006, IN PRESS BLACK SWAN THURMOND MC, 2003, J VET DIAGN INVEST, V15, P501 WALDROP MM, 1992, COMPLEXITY EMERGING NR 13 TC 0 J9 REV SCI TECH OIE BP 353 EP 360 PY 2006 PD APR VL 25 IS 1 GA 050LH UT ISI:000238088400027 ER PT J AU Bales, RC Liverman, DM Morehouse, BJ TI Integrated assessment as a step toward reducing climate vulnerability in the Southwestern United States SO BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY LA English DT Article C1 Univ Arizona, Dept Hydrol & Water Resources, Tucson, AZ 85721 USA. Univ Arizona, Ctr Latin Amer Studies, Tucson, AZ 85721 USA. Univ Arizona, Dept Geog, Tucson, AZ 85721 USA. Univ Arizona, Inst Study Planet Earth, Tucson, AZ 85721 USA. RP Bales, RC, Univ Calif Merced, Sch Engn, POB 2039, Merced, CA 95344 USA. AB Managing the effects of climate change requires new approaches to develop and deliver relevant climate information to regional and local decision makers, and to infuse that knowledge into their decision support systems. In the southwestern United States an alternative approach to integrated climate assessment is changing how both researchers and stakeholders view climate information and vulnerability. In this region, climate assessment is an ongoing, sustained process to improve climate awareness, change scientific research on climate, build effective research- applications partnerships around climate variability and change, and maintain those partnerships. The multiple activities in this regional climate assessment serve as a pilot for a broader climate services organization in the United States, and both highlight the crucial need for regional climate services and provide important lessons for implementation. CR *NAT ASS SYNTH TEA, 2001, CLIM CHANG IMP US PO *NAT SCI TECHN COU, 2002, OUR CHANG PLAN FY 20 AUSTIN D, 2000, CL200 CLIMAS U AR I BENQUISTA N, 1999, PILOT STAKEHOLDER AS BROWN DP, 2002, CLIMATE RES, V22, P115 CARTER RH, 2003, CLI03 CLIMAS U AR I CAVAZOS T, 2002, J CLIMATE, V15, P2477 EAKIN H, 1999, PHYS GEOGR, V20, P447 FRANZ KJ, 2003, J HYDROMETEOROL, V4, P1105 GARFIN G, 2001, 2001 FIR CLIM WORKSH GARFIN G, 2003, 2003 NAT SEAS ASS WO HARTMANN HC, 2002, B AM METEOROL SOC, V83, P683 HARTMANN HC, 2002, CLIMATE RES, V21, P239 LEMOS MC, 2002, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V55, P479 LIVERMAN DM, 2002, CLIMATE RES, V21, P199 MERIDETH R, 1998, CLIMATE CHANGE SW IM MOREHOUSE BJ, 2002, CLIMATE RES, V21, P283 SHEPPARD PR, 2002, CLIMATE RES, V21, P219 SPRIGG WA, 2000, PREPARING CHANGING C VASQUEZLEON M, 2003, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V13, P159 WATSON RT, 1998, REGIONAL IMPACTS CLI, V1, P1 NR 21 TC 0 J9 BULL AMER METEOROL SOC BP 1727 EP + PY 2004 PD NOV VL 85 IS 11 GA 877GZ UT ISI:000225557200013 ER PT J AU Wiesner-Steiner, A Lange, H Haarmann, M TI Climate change and risk management in northern German coast protection - A discourse analysis SO HISTORICAL SOCIAL RESEARCH-HISTORISCHE SOZIALFORSCHUNG LA German DT Article C1 Univ Bremen, FB 3, D-28359 Bremen, Germany. Univ Bremen, Forschungszentrum Nachhaltigkeit Seminar & Forsch, SFG, D-28359 Bremen, Germany. RP Wiesner-Steiner, A, Univ Bremen, FB 3, Bibliothekstr 1, D-28359 Bremen, Germany. AB Dealing with the local consequences of climate change and an accelerated sea-level rise, the political-administrative system plays a central role The following article focusses on results of a discourse analysis of the political-administrative coastal protection system at the german north sea coast and assesses the demands for longterm precautionary action. As part of the interdisciplinary research project KRIM we analyse both natural and social adaption options to extreme incidents (formulated as climate scenarios for the year 2050). Along with a summary of the discourse analysis, special attention is given to our methodological approach. Different aspects of the political-administrative risk assessment (the possibility of dike failure, the role of climate change research for coastal protection, the importance of discoursive and institutional boundary work) are brought up and wrapped to the methodological issues of our discourse analysis. The core thesis here is that the uncertainties of climate impact research get interpreted and absorbed within safety-discourses that draw on local know-how as well as on historical growing competences in coastal protection. 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Univ Vermont, Rubenstein Sch Environm & Nat Resouces, Burlington, VT 05401 USA. RP Khagram, S, Univ Washington, Seattle, WA 98195 USA. AB A broadening research program focused on environment and security emerged over the past 30 years. But the meaning and operationalization of environment and security have been an implicit and increasingly explicit part of the scholarly debate. Approaches range from the more specific focus on the linkages between environmental change and violent (deadly) conflict, the possible role of environmental conservation, cooperation, and collaboration in promoting peace, and the broader focus on potential relationships between environmental change and human security (understood as freedom from both violent conflict and physical want). In addition to the different conceptions of environment and security, the type and direction of causal relationships among different factors continue to be a focus of research. With respect to the environment and violent conflict, which constitute the largest explicit research stream on environment and security, the debate has centered on whether and why environmental scarcity, abundance, or dependence might cause militarized conflict. Less research has been conducted on the environmental effects of violent conflict and war or traditional security institutions such as militaries and military-industrial complexes. Rigorous research on the consequences of peace or human security for the environment is virtually nonexistent. 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Clark Univ, George Perkins Marsh Inst, Worcester, MA 01602 USA. East West Ctr, Honolulu, HI 96848 USA. Macro Int, Demog & Hlth Res Div, Calverton, MD 20705 USA. Univ N Carolina, Carolina Populat Ctr, Chapel Hill, NC 27516 USA. Univ N Carolina, Dept Sociol, Chapel Hill, NC 27599 USA. Univ N Carolina, Dept Geog, Chapel Hill, NC 27599 USA. RP Turner, BL, Clark Univ, Grad Sch Geog, Worcester, MA 01602 USA. AB Land-change science has emerged as a foundational element of global environment change and sustainability science. It seeks to understand the human and environment dynamics that give rise to changed land uses and covers, not only in terms of their type and magnitude but their location as well. This focus requires the integration of social, natural, and geographical information sciences. Each of these broad research communities has developed different ways to enter the land-change problem, each with different means of treating the locational specificity of the critical variables, such as linking the land manager to the parcel being managed. The resulting integration encounters various data, methodological, and analytical problems, especially those concerning aggregation and inference, land-use pixel links, data and measurement, and remote sensing analysis. Here, these integration problems, which hinder comprehensive understanding and theory development, are addressed. Their recognition and resolution are required for the sustained development of land-change science. 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Penn State Univ, Dept Geog, University Pk, PA 16802 USA. Penn State Univ, Dept Stat, University Pk, PA 16802 USA. Canaan Valley Inst, Thomas, WV USA. RP Myers, WL, Penn State Univ, Grad Studies Sch Forest Resources, University Pk, PA 16802 USA. AB The environmental purpose is to characterize watersheds in a region regarding vulnerability and resiliency relative to present and potential degradation of water quality due to human impact based on available spatial information and multidisciplinary expertise. Available information is of six general types as (1) physical and topographic conformation, (2) soil factors, (3) climatic factors, (4) hydrologic characteristics, (5) land-cover/land-use, and (6) prior records of sampling at selected locations for water quality and biological indicators. The strategy is first to develop cluster-based classes of watersheds that are expected to have similar responses to anthropogenic stressors, without using indicators of landscape condition that are directly influenced by local human activity. Watersheds in these classes can then be analyzed for degree of human influence as indicated by land-cover/land-use demographics. More sparse data on water quality and biological indicators at stream sampling locations provide a basis for determining the degradation response to human-induced stressors in each class along with potential for remediation. Focus in this paper is on the first task of cluster-based classification. Statistical adaptation comes in combining empirical objectivity of clustering with interdisciplinary environmental expertise, such that the trajectory of investigation arises from team expertise while the formulation is shaped statistically. Expertise enters initially in recognizing subsets of available descriptors that characterize different aspects of the watershed context needing to be explored separately rather than being completely confounded. Reduction of redundancy among available descriptors and removal of outliers are preliminary concerns. Clustering then proceeds through a series of phases using the sets of variables individually and in selected combinations. Contingency of composite clustering relative to separately clustered sets is examined via special cross tabulations in order to elucidate interactions between sets of variables. The spatial nature of the investigation contributes the major contextual capability for exercising team expertise through visualization using geographic information systems (GIS) that enhances and integrates insights from clustering, particularly with regard to spatial distribution of cluster membership. CR *MIN INC, 2003, MEET MINITAB REL 14 *USEPA, 2000, EPA903R00015, P64 BRYCE SA, 1996, ENVIRON MANAGE, V20, P297 BRYCE SA, 1999, ENV PRACTICE, V1, P141 CHRISMAN N, 2002, EXPLORING GEOGRAPHIC CLASSEN FAM, 1994, ECOSYSTEM CLASSIFICA, P199 COLLINS A, 1998, CONSERV VOICES, V1, P31 CONSTANTZ G, 2000, MT RES DEV, V20, P122 DETENBECK NE, 2000, ENVIRON TOXICOL CH 2, V19, P1174 DIGBY PGN, 1991, MULTIVARIATE ANAL EC GRIFFITH GE, 1999, J SOIL WATER CONSERV, V54, P666 GUNDERSON LH, 2000, ANNU REV ECOL SYST, V31, P425 HARTIGAN JA, 1975, CLUSTERING ALGORITHM HAWKINS CP, 2000, ECOL APPL, V10, P1456 HUNSAKER CT, 1995, BIOSCIENCE, V45, P193 IMHOF JG, 1996, CAN J FISH AQUAT S1, V53, P312 JOHNSON GD, 2001, J AM WATER RESOUR AS, V37, P821 JONES KB, 1997, EPA600R97130 JONES KB, 2001, LANDSCAPE ECOL, V16, P301 MCCUNE B, 2002, ANAL ECOLOGICAL COMM MCGARIGAL K, 2000, MULTIVARIATE STAT WI MORAIN S, 1999, GIS SOLUTIONS NATURA PODANI J, 2000, INTRO EXPLORATION MU ROHLF FJ, 1981, SYST ZOOL, V30, P459 WHITING PJ, 1993, EARTH SURF PROCESSES, V18, P603 NR 25 TC 0 J9 ENVIRON ECOL STAT BP 391 EP 407 PY 2006 PD DEC VL 13 IS 4 GA 100RH UT ISI:000241685800004 ER PT J AU Sohngen, B Sedjo, R TI Impacts of climate change on forest product markets: Implications for North American producers SO FORESTRY CHRONICLE LA English DT Article C1 Ohio State Univ, AED Econ, Columbus, OH 43210 USA. Resources Future Inc, Washington, DC 20036 USA. RP Sedjo, R, Ohio State Univ, AED Econ, 2120 Fyffe Rd, Columbus, OH 43210 USA. AB This paper examines potential climate change impacts in North American timber markets. The results indicate that climate change could increase productivity in forests in North America, increase productivity in forests globally, and reduce timber prices. North American consumers generally will gain from the potential changes, but producers could lose welfare. If dieback resulting from additional forest fires, increased pest infestation, or storm damage increases appreciably and has market effects, consumers will gain less and producers will lose more than if climate change simply increases the annual flow of timber products by raising forest productivity. Annual producers' surplus losses from climate change in the North American timber sector are estimated to range from $1.4 - $2.1 billion per year on average over the next century, with the higher number resulting from potential large-scale dieback. Within North America, existing studies suggest that producers in northern regions are less susceptible to climate change impacts than producers in southern regions because many climate and ecological models suggest that climates become dryer in the U.S. South. CR *VEMAP MEMB, 1995, GLOBAL BIOGEOCHEMICA, V9, P407 CLAUSSEN M, 1996, CLIM DYNAM, V12, P371 DALE VH, 2001, BIOSCIENCE, V51, P723 HAXELTINE A, 1996, GLOBAL BIOGEOCHEM CY, V10, P693 HAYNES R, 2003, PNWGTR560 USDA FOR S IRLAND LC, 2001, BIOSCIENCE, V51, P753 IVERSON LR, 2001, ECOSYSTEMS, V4, P186 JOYCE LA, 1995, J BIOGEOGR, V22, P703 JOYCE LJ, 2001, CLIMAGE CHANGE IMPAC, CH17 LEMMEN DS, 2004, CLIMATE CHANGE IMPAC MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 PEREZGARCIA J, 1997, EC CARBON SEQUESTRAT SCHLESINGER ME, 1997, PUBLICATION CLIMATE SHUGART H, 2003, FORESTS GLOBAL CLIMA SOHNGEN B, 1998, AM ECON REV, V88, P689 SOHNGEN B, 2001, GLOBAL WARMING AM EC, CH4 SOHNGEN B, 2001, J AGR RESOUR ECON, V26, P326 NR 17 TC 3 J9 FOREST CHRON BP 669 EP 674 PY 2005 PD SEP-OCT VL 81 IS 5 GA 979VW UT ISI:000232974100026 ER PT J AU Clark, WC Dickson, NM TI Sustainability science: The emerging research program SO PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA LA English DT Editorial Material C1 Harvard Univ, John F Kennedy Sch Govt, Cambridge, MA 02138 USA. 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Univ Florida, Sch Forest Resources & Conservat, Ctr Subtrop Agroforestry, Gainesville, FL 32611 USA. Univ Quintana Roo, Div Hemanidades & Estudios Int, Quintana Roo 77000, Mexico. Wildlands League, Toronto, ON M5V 3A8, Canada. RP Bray, DB, Florida Int Univ, Dept Environm Studies, Miami, FL 33199 USA. AB Research on the dynamics of tropical forest land use and cover change (LUCC) has focused on the three scenarios: (1) deforestation/degradation; (2) settled, degraded areas in recovery, and (3) sparsely settled, expansive, intact forest. Through examination of a central Quintana Roo, Mexico case study we propose a fourth scenario of a 'sustainable landscape': an inhabited, productively used, forested landscape that nonetheless shows little change or net gains in forest cover over the last 25 years. We use Landsat images to demonstrate a low incidence of net deforestation, 0.01% for the 1984-2000 period, the lowest recorded deforestation rate for southeastern Mexico. Institutional innovations such as an agrarian reform process that established large common property forests for non-timber forest product extraction, and later innovations such as sustainable forest management institutions have driven the outcome of low net deforestation, added to multiple organizational processes that promote sustainable land use. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 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Univ Otago, Wellington Sch Med, Wellington, New Zealand. Fiji Sch Med, Sch Publ Hlth & Primary Care, Suva, Fiji. WHO, Dept Hlth Sustainable Dev, CH-1211 Geneva, Switzerland. RP Woodward, A, Wellington Sch Med, Dept Publ Hlth, Sch Med, POB 7343, Wellington S, New Zealand. AB The biological and physical environment of the planet is changing at an unprecedented rate as a result of human activity, and these changes may have an enormous impact on human health. One of the goals of human development is to protect health in the face of rapid environmental change, but we often fail to do this. The aim in th is paper is to distinguish between socioeconomic aspects of development that a re likely to be protective and those that are likely to increase vulnerability (the capacity for loss resulting from environmental change). Examples include climate change in the Pacific. We conclude that protecting human health in a changing world requires us to take steps to minimize harmful change wherever possible, and at the same time to be prepared for surprises. The goals of mitigation (reducing or preventing change) and adaptation (response to change) are not mutually exclusive. in fact, steps to make populations more resilient in the face of change are often similar to those that are needed to lighten the load on the environment. We need social policies that convert economic growth into human development. Wider application of sustainable development concepts is part of the solution. In particular, there is a need to promote health as an essential asset of poor and vulnerable populations. it is their key to productivity and to surviving shocks; it is also the key to achieving broader development goals such as universal education. For these reasons it is in the interests of all sectors - economic, social and environmental - to play their particular roles in protecting and improving health. CR *ESCAP, 1997, ESCAP POP DAT SHEET *INT FED RED CROSS, 1996, WORLD DIS REP 1996 *INT FED RED CROSS, 1999, WORLD DIS REP *STAT NZ, 1999, INC *UN DEV PROGR, 1999, HUM DEV REP 1999 *US BUR STAT, 1999, FIJ CENS POP HOUS *WHO, 1997, WHO REG PUBL E, V72 *WORLD BANK, 1999, WORLD DEV REP 1999 2 *WORLD COMM ENV DE, 1987, OUR COMM FUT DANIELS N, 1999, DAEDALUS, V128, P215 DENNIS R, 2000, RECENT OUTBREAK FIRE DOWNING TE, 1999, DROUGHT HALES S, 1999, ENVIRON HEALTH PERSP, V107, P99 HALES S, 1999, LANCET, V354, P2047 HEARNDEN M, 1999, NZ PUBLIC HLTH REPOR, V6, P25 KALKSTEIN LS, 1997, ENVIRON HEALTH PERSP, V105, P84 KAPLAN G, 1996, BRIT MED J, V312, P1004 KAWACHI I, 1999, HEALTH SERV RES 2, V34, P215 LEAKEY R, 1996, 6 EXTINCTION BIODIVE MCMICHAEL AJ, 1993, PLANETARY OVERLOAD G MUSTARD JF, 1996, HLTH SOCIAL ORG, P303 NIGG JM, 1995, WELLINGTON QUAKE CHA, P81 NIMURA N, 1999, CLIM RES, V12, P137 OKE TR, 1987, BOUNDARY LAYER CLIMA OLSTHOORN AA, 1999, CLIMATE CHANGE RISK, P221 PELLING M, 1998, J INT DEV, V10, P469 PELLING M, 1999, GEOFORUM, V30, P249 SCHWEITHELM J, 1998, OVERVIEW INDONESIAS SEN AK, 1981, POVERTY FAMINES ESSA, V1, P1 SEN AK, 2000, FAR E EC REV 0127 WATSON RT, 1998, REGIONAL IMPACTS CLI, V1, P1 WATSON RT, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, V1, P1 WESLEYSMITH T, 1992, CONTEMP PACIFIC, V4, P245 WOODS R, 1984, URBAN DIS MORTALITY, P19 WOODWARD A, IN PRESS J EPIDEMIOL WOODWARD A, 1998, CLIMATE RES, V11, P31 NR 36 TC 6 J9 BULL WHO BP 1148 EP 1155 PY 2000 VL 78 IS 9 GA 353FJ UT ISI:000089263900009 ER PT J AU Belliveau, S Smit, B Bradshaw, B TI Multiple exposures and dynamic vulnerability: Evidence from the grape industry in the Okanagan Valley, Canada SO GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS LA English DT Review C1 Univ Guelph, Dept Geog, Guelph, ON N1G 2W1, Canada. RP Belliveau, S, Univ Guelph, Dept Geog, Guelph, ON N1G 2W1, Canada. AB This paper assesses the vulnerability of grape growers and winery operators in the Okanagan Valley, British Columbia to climate variability and change, in the context of other sources of risk. Through interviews and focus groups, producers identified the climatic and non-climatic risks relevant to them and the strategies employed to manage these risks. The results show that the presence of multiple exposures affects the way in which producers are vulnerable to climate change. Producers are vulnerable to conditions that not only affect crop yield, but also affect their ability to compete in or sell to the market. Their sensitivity to these conditions is influenced in part by institutional factors such as trade liberalization and a "markup-free delivery" policy. Producers' ability to adapt or cope with these risks varies depending on such factors as the availability of resources and technology, and access to government programmes. Producers will likely face challenges associated with the supply of water for irrigation due to a combination of climatic changes and changing demographics in the Okanagan Valley, which in turn affect their ability to adapt to climatic conditions. Finally, adaptations made by producers can change the nature of the operation and its vulnerability, demonstrating the dynamic nature of vulnerability. (C) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 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1998, CLIM RES, V10, P85 SCHIMMELPFENNIG.D, 1999, GLOBAL ENV CHANGE AG SCHREINER J, 1996, BRIT COLUMBIA WINE C SCHREINER J, 2004, WINERIES BRIT COLUMB SEN AK, 1981, POVERTY FAMINES ESSA, V1, P1 SHEPHERD P, 2004, EXPANDING DIALOGUE C SMIT B, 1996, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V33, P7 SMIT B, 2000, CLIMATE CHANGE COMMU SMIT B, 2002, MITIGATION ADAPTATIO, V7, P85 SMITHERS J, 1997, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V7, P129 SMITHERS J, 2004, CAN GEOGR-GEOGR CAN, V48, P191 STRACHAN G, 2005, COMMUNICATION JAN SUTHERLAND K, 2005, TIEMPO, V54, P11 SYGNA L, 2004, 200412 CICERO TATE AB, 2001, J WINE RES, V12, P95 TAYLOR B, 2004, EXPANDING DIALOGUE C, P47 TURNER BL, 2003, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V100, P8074 VASQUEZLEON M, 2003, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V13, P159 WAKE P, 2005, INDICATORS CLIMATE C WALL E, 2005, J SUSTAIN AGR, V27, P113 WALTHER GR, 2002, NATURE, V416, P389 WANDEL J, 2000, AGR ENV SUSTAINABILI WATTS MJ, 1993, PROG HUM GEOG, V17, P43 WHEATON EE, 1999, MITIGATION ADAPTATIO, V4, P215 WILBANKS TJ, 1999, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V43, P601 WILHELMI OV, 2002, NAT HAZARDS, V25, P37 WILSON K, 1996, THESIS U BRIT COLUMB WINKLER JA, 2002, J GREAT LAKES RES, V28, P608 WINTER M, 2000, J RURAL STUD, V16, P47 YOHE GW, 2002, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V12, P25 ZIERVOGEL G, 2003, AREA, V35, P403 NR 128 TC 0 J9 GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANGE BP 364 EP 378 PY 2006 PD OCT VL 16 IS 4 GA 105MG UT ISI:000242033600006 ER PT J AU Luo, QY Bellotti, W Williams, M Bryan, B TI Potential impact of climate change on wheat yield in South Australia SO AGRICULTURAL AND FOREST METEOROLOGY LA English DT Article C1 Univ Adelaide, Dept Geog & Environm Studies, Adelaide, SA 5005, Australia. Univ Adelaide, Sch Agr & Wine, Madison, WI 53711 USA. CSIRO, Policy & Econ Res Unit, Glen Osmond, SA 5064, Australia. RP Luo, QY, Univ Adelaide, Dept Geog & Environm Studies, Adelaide, SA 5005, Australia. AB Refined and improved climate change scenarios have been applied in this study to quantify the possible impacts of future climate change on South Australian wheat yield with probability attached. This study used the APSIM-Wheat module and information drawn from the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) and nine climate models for 2080. A wheat yield response surface has been constructed within 80 climate change scenarios. The most likely wheat yield changes have been defined under combinations of changes in regional rainfall, regional temperature and atmospheric CO2, concentration (CO2). Median grain yield is projected to decrease across all locations from 13.5 to 32% under the most likely climate change scenarios. This has economic and social implications from local to national levels. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. CR *CSIRO, 1996, CLIM CHANG SCEN AUST *CSIRO, 2001, CLIM CHANG PROJ AUST *IPCC, 2000, SPEC REP EM SCEN SUM MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 BRKLACICH M, 1995, ASA SPEC PUBL, P147 DELECOLLE R, 1995, ASA SPEC PUBL, V59, P241 HOWDEN SM, 1999, 9913 CSIRO, P24 HOWDEN SM, 1999, 9914 CSIRO AUSTR GRE, P51 HOWDEN SM, 1999, GLOBAL CHANGE IMPACT HOWDEN SM, 1999, MODSIM99 P INT C MOD JONES RN, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P403 KEATING BA, 2003, EUR J AGRON, V18, P267 LUO Q, 2003, THESIS U ADELAIDE LUO QY, 2003, AGR SYST, V77, P173 MEARNS LO, 1995, ASA SPEC PUBL, V59, P123 MENZHULIN GV, 1995, ASA SPEC PUBL, P275 REYENGA PJ, 1997, MODSIM 99 P INT C MO REYENGA PJ, 1999, ENVIRON MODELL SOFTW, V14, P297 SEINO H, 1995, ASA SPEC PUBL, P293 SMITH JB, 1996, VULNERABILITY ADAPTI, P366 TUBIELLO FN, 1995, AGR SYST, V49, P135 YUNUSA IAM, 2004, AUST J EXP AGR, V44, P787 NR 22 TC 0 J9 AGR FOREST METEOROL BP 273 EP 285 PY 2005 PD OCT 3 VL 132 IS 3-4 GA 984MP UT ISI:000233309300009 ER PT J AU Lowe, TD Lorenzoni, I TI Danger is all around: Eliciting expert perceptions for managing climate change through a mental models approach SO GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS LA English DT Article C1 Univ E Anglia, Sch Environm Sci, Zuckerman Inst Connect Environm Res, Tryndall Ctr Climate Change Res, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. Univ E Anglia, Sch Environm Sci, Zuckerman Inst Connect Environm Res, Ctr Environm Risk, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. RP Lowe, TD, Univ E Anglia, Sch Environm Sci, Zuckerman Inst Connect Environm Res, Tryndall Ctr Climate Change Res, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. AB It has long been acknowledged that understandings of risk are influenced by external or 'objective' assessments, and by internal or 'subjective' value judgements. In-depth research has been undertaken on how lay people perceive climate change and related risks, whereas work on expert opinions is more limited. This paper reports on 22 'expert' interpretations elicited through a mental models approach, and encapsulated in a 'meta'-influence diagram, denoting three conceptualisations of danger in relation to climate change: (i) human influence upon the climate system; (ii) impacts upon natural and human communities; and (iii) threat to the status quo, especially in the form of mitigation measures and related costs. These conceptualisations raise questions about how experts bring to bear their knowledge, values and understanding of climatic and social systems in articulating such discourses. This paper also discusses the implications of such diverse perspectives on managing climate change. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 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CR ANDERSON WA, 1966, THESIS OHIO STATE U BATES FL, 1963, 18 NAT AC SCI NAT RE JACKSON RH, 1974, NATURAL HAZARDS LOCA, P146 MARGOLIS ML, MASS EMERGENCIES MARGOLIS ML, 1973, MOVING FRONTIER SOCI OLIVERSMITH A, 1979, MASS EMERGENCIES SJOBERG G, 1962, MAN SOC DISASTER, P356 WADDELL E, 1975, HUM ECOL, V3, P249 WADDELL E, 1977, 76TH ANN M AM ANTHR WARD RM, 1974, NATURAL HAZARDS LOCA, P137 WHITE GF, 1975, ASSESSMENT RES NATUR, V1, P1 NR 11 TC 2 J9 DISASTERS BP 231 EP 235 PY 1980 VL 4 IS 2 GA KF455 UT ISI:A1980KF45500015 ER PT J AU Robards, M Alessa, L TI Timescapes of community resilience and vulnerability in the circumpolar north SO ARCTIC LA English DT Article C1 Univ Alaska, Anchorage, AK 99508 USA. RP Robards, M, Univ Alaska, 3211 Providence Dr, Anchorage, AK 99508 USA. AB Historical relationships between people and a changing Arctic environment (which constitute a social-ecological system, or SES) can offer insights for management that promote both social and ecological resilience. The continued existence of healthy renewable resources around communities is particularly important, as subsistence and commercial use of local resources are often the only practical avenues to healthy, long-term security for those communities. Our research draws on the position that SESs exist in an environment that is explicitly temporal: frequently cyclic, changing, contextual, and contingent. Therefore, the causes and effect of disturbances to SESs are rarely temporally linear; instead, they are characterized by a complex array of hysteretic effects and alternate (possibly repeating) states. The term 'timescapes' describes the time-space context element and its fundamental importance to sustainable practices. We investigate social-ecological timescapes of the circumpolar North in relation to four primary provisioning practices (hunting/gathering, pastoralism, agriculture, and market-based economy). Broadly, we identify distinct social-ecological states, interspersed with periods of change. For specific communities that have maintained their existence through a series of periods of profound change, we propose that elements of social and ecological resilience have been neither incrementally lost nor gained through time; rather, they have waxed and waned in accordance with specific, and sometimes repeating, conditions. To maintain their existence, we believe, communities have had to maintain their ability to recognize gradual or rapid changes in social, ecological, or economic conditions and reorganize themselves to adapt to those changes, rather than to any specific outcomes of a change. That is, they have adapted to a dynamic environment, not a preferred state. However, centralized Western management, despite fundamental flaws in accounting for local linkages between culture, economics, and the environment, is increasingly circumscribing local practices. We believe that the significant challenge of maintaining equity and resilience of remote communities, within and outside the Arctic, will necessitate incorporating localized cultural values and decision-making processes that fostered prior community existence with (data from) Western interdisciplinary research. CR *CAFF, 2001, ARCT FLOR FAUN INT B *WCED, 1987, OUR COMM FUT ADAM B, 1998, TIMESCAPES MODERNITY ANDERSEN T, 2002, ARCTIC, V55, P310 ANDERSON J, 2001, N REV, V23, P9 BALMFORD A, 2002, SCIENCE, V297, P950 BECKERMAN S, 1996, CURR ANTHROPOL, V37, P659 BECKLEY T, 2002, FOREST CHRON, V78, P626 BERARDI G, 1998, NAT RESOUR J, V38, P85 BERKES F, 2001, UNDERSTANDING TRANSF, P121 BOO E, 1990, ECOTOURISM POTENTIAL CARPENTER SR, 2001, ECOSYSTEMS, V4, P765 CARPENTER SR, 2001, BIOSCIENCE, V51, P451 CHANCE NA, 1990, INUPIAT ARCTIC ALASK COLLINGS P, 1997, CONTESTED ARCTIC IND, P13 COSTANZA R, 1996, ECOL APPL, V6, P978 DEUTSCH L, 2003, ECOL ECON, V44, P205 FOLKE C, 2002, RESILIENCE SUSTAINAB FREEMAN MMR, 2001, 401 FAO FISH, V401, P169 FREESE CH, 2000, CONSUMPTIVE WILD SPE GLANTZ MH, 1991, ENVIRONMENT, V33, P10 GLANTZ MH, 1991, ENVIRONMENT, V33, P27 GOLDMAN M, 2000, ANNU REV SOCIOL, V26, P563 GOTTLIEB R, 1993, FORCING SPRING TRANS, P235 HAILA Y, 1999, BIODIVERS CONSERV, V8, P165 HENSHAW A, 2003, ARCTIC, V56, P1 HOLLING CS, 1986, SUSTAINABLE DEV BIOS, V1, P1 HOLLING CS, 1996, CONSERV BIOL, V10, P328 HOLLING CS, 2001, ECOSYSTEMS, V4, P390 HUNTINGTON HP, 2000, ECOL APPL, V10, P1270 INGOLD T, 1980, HUNTERS PASTORALISTS JACKSON JBC, 2001, SCIENCE, V293, P629 JANSSEN MA, 2003, CURR ANTHROPOL, V44, P722 KELLY PM, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V47, P325 KLEIN DR, 1996, RANGIFER SPECIAL ISS, V9, P245 KRUPNIK I, 1993, ARCTIC ADAPTATIONS N KRUPNIK I, 2002, EARTH FASTER NOW IND LANGDON SJ, 1995, HUMAN ECOLOGY CLIMAT, P139 LEGAT A, 2001, ARCTIC FLORA FAUNA I, P69 LENT PC, 1999, MUSKOXEN THEIR HUNTE MACPHERSON AH, 1981, ARCTIC, V34, P103 MAGDANZ JS, 2002, 259 AL DEP FISH GAM MCBEATH GA, 2001, NO REV, V23, P164 MCBRIDE M, 2001, J ECON BEHAV ORGAN, V45, P251 MCGOODWIN JR, 1990, CRISIS WORLDS FISHER MCTIERNAN T, 1999, COMMUNITIES DEV SUST, P90 MELTOFTE H, 2001, ARCTIC FLORA FAUNA I, P88 NAKASHIMA D, 2000, UNESCO SOURCES, V125, P12 NEWTON ST, 2002, ARCTIC, V55, P281 NUTTALL M, 2000, ARCTIC ENV PEOPLE PO ODUM HT, 2001, PROSPEROUS WAY DOWN ORR DW, 2002, CONSERV BIOL, V16, P1457 PAINE R, 1994, HERDS TUNDRA PORTRAI SCHEFFER M, 2001, NATURE, V413, P591 SCHLOSSER P, 1998, OPPORTUNITIES ARCTIC SEIJO G, 2001, INT C SPAC TIM RETH SMIT B, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 SMITH EA, 2000, ANNU REV ANTHROPOL, V29, P493 STOFFLE RW, 2001, 401 FAO FISH, P219 TAINTER J, 1990, COLLAPSE COMPLEX SOC WACKERNAGEL M, 1997, ECOL ECON, V20, P3 WALKER BH, 2002, CONSERV ECOL, V6, P1 WEISS H, 2001, SCIENCE, V291, P609 YOUNG OR, 1992, ARCTIC POLITICS CONF ZIKER JP, 1999, ANTHR E EUROPE REV, V17, P59 NR 65 TC 3 J9 ARCTIC BP 415 EP 427 PY 2004 PD DEC VL 57 IS 4 GA 880NA UT ISI:000225795300009 ER PT J AU Niemeyer, S Petts, J Hobson, K TI Rapid climate change and society: Assessing responses and thresholds SO RISK ANALYSIS LA English DT Article C1 Australian Natl Univ, Res Sch Social Sci, Canberra, ACT 0200, Australia. Univ Birmingham, Sch Geog Earth & Environm Sci, Birmingham B15 2TT, W Midlands, England. Australian Natl Univ, Dept Human Geog, Res Sch Pacific & Asian Studies, Canberra, ACT 0200, Australia. RP Niemeyer, S, Australian Natl Univ, Res Sch Social Sci, Canberra, ACT 0200, Australia. AB Assessing the social risks associated with climate change requires an understanding of how humans will respond because it affects how well societies will adapt. In the case of rapid or dangerous climate change, of particular interest is the potential for these responses to cross thresholds beyond which they become maladaptive. To explore the possibility of such thresholds, a series of climate change scenarios were presented to U.K. participants whose subjective responses were recorded via interviews and surveyed using Q methodology. The results indicate an initially adaptive response to climate warming followed by a shift to maladaptation as the magnitude of change increases. Beyond this threshold, trust in collective action and institutions was diminished, negatively impacting adaptive capacity. Climate cooling invoked a qualitatively different response, although this may be a product of individuals being primed for warming because it has dominated public discourse. The climate change scenarios used in this research are severe by climatological standards. In reality, the observed responses might occur at a lower rate of change. Whatever the case, analysis of subjectivity has revealed potential for maladaptive human responses, constituting a dangerous or rapid climate threshold within the social sphere. 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URBAN AKTERNATIVES YEN BC, 1975, J ENVIRONMENTAL ENGI, V101, P535 YOUNG CP, 1973, P RES C RAINFALL RUN ZAGHLOUL NA, 1977, P I CIVIL ENG PT 2, V63, P925 NR 442 TC 1 J9 URBAN ECOL BP 1 EP 350 PY 1982 VL 6 IS 1-4 GA PG196 UT ISI:A1982PG19600001 ER PT J AU Scales, H Balmford, A Manica, A TI Impacts of the live reef fish trade on populations of coral reef fish off northern Borneo SO PROCEEDINGS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY B-BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES LA English DT Article C1 Univ Cambridge, Dept Zool, Cambridge CB2 3EJ, England. RP Manica, A, Univ Cambridge, Dept Zool, Downing St, Cambridge CB2 3EJ, England. AB The live reef fish trade ( LRFT) is one of the greatest but least-quantified sources of fishing pressure for several species of large coral reef fish across the Indo-Pacific. For the first time we quantify the localized impact of the LRFT. We collected data from three LRFT traders in northern Borneo, which yielded information on daily fishing effort and the species and mass of all fishes sold every day by individual fishers or vessels over 2, 3 and 8 years. Total monthly catch and relative abundance ( catch-per-unit-effort) declined significantly in several species, including the most valuable species the Napoleon wrasse ( Cheilinus undulatus, estimated changes of -98 and -78% over 8 years in catch and relative abundance, respectively) and lower-value bluelined groupers ( Plectropomus oligocanthus: -99 and -81%) and Epinephelus groupers ( -89 and -32%). These severe declines were rapid, species-specific and occurred in the first 2 - 4 years of the dataset and are, we believe, directly attributable to the LRFT. This has crucial implications for future data collection and monitoring if population collapses in other parts of the LRFT and similar wildlife trades are to be successfully detected. CR BENTLEY N, 1999, FISHING SOLUTIONS LI BERKES F, 2006, SCIENCE, V311, P1557 BRANDER K, 1981, NATURE, V290, P48 CHRISTENSEN V, 2003, FISH FISH, V4, P1 DEVINE JA, 2006, NATURE, V439, P29 DULVY NK, 2003, FISH FISH, V4, P25 HUGHES TP, 2003, SCIENCE, V301, P929 JACKSON JBC, 2001, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V98, P5411 JACKSON JBC, 2001, SCIENCE, V293, P629 JENNINGS S, 1999, CONSERV BIOL, V13, P1466 JOHANNES RE, 1995, ENV EC SOCIAL IMPLIC LEE C, 1998, NAGA ICLARM Q, V21, P38 MORRIS AV, 2000, BIODIVERS CONSERV, V9, P919 REYNOLDS JD, 2001, CONSERVATION EXPLOIT, P147 ROSENBERG AA, 2005, FRONT ECOL ENVIRON, V3, P84 SADOVY Y, 2003, FISH FISH, V4, P86 SADOVY Y, 2004, REV FISH BIOL FISHER, V13, P327 SADOVY Y, 2005, SPC LIVE REEF FISH T, V13, P42 SADOVY Y, 2005, SPC LIVE REEF FISH T, V14, P3 SADOVY YJ, 2003, STOCKS LAST LIVE FOO SCALES H, 2006, SCIENCE, V313, P612 TEGNER MJ, 1996, TRENDS ECOL EVOL, V11, P278 VENABLES WN, 2002, MODERN APPL STAT S WARRENRHODES K, 2003, AMBIO, V32, P481 WILKINSON C, 2000, STATUS CORAL REEFS W NR 25 TC 0 J9 PROC R SOC B BP 989 EP 994 PY 2007 PD APR 7 VL 274 IS 1612 GA 138PV UT ISI:000244375600012 ER PT J AU Bunde, A Havlin, S TI Scaling in the atmosphere: On global laws of persistence and tests of climate models SO FRACTALS-COMPLEX GEOMETRY PATTERNS AND SCALING IN NATURE AND SOCIETY LA English DT Article C1 Univ Giessen, Inst Theoret Phys, D-35392 Giessen, Germany. Bar Ilan Univ, Dept Phys, IL-52100 Ramat Gan, Israel. RP Bunde, A, Univ Giessen, Inst Theoret Phys, Heinrich Buff Ring 16, D-35392 Giessen, Germany. AB Characterizing the complex atmospheric variability at all pertinent temporal and spatial scales remains one of the most important challenges to scientific research today.(1-5) The main issues are to quantify, within reasonably narrow limits, the potential extent of global warming, and to downscale the global results in order to describe and quantify the regional implications of global change. CR *ECHAM3, 1996, ATM GEN CIRC MOD WATSON RT, 1998, REGIONAL IMPACTS CLI, V1, P1 ALPERT P, 1998, NATURE, V395, P367 ARNEODO A, 1995, PHYS REV LETT, V74, P3293 ARNEODO A, 1996, PHYSICA D, V96, P291 ARNEODO A, 2001, SCI DISASTERS BENGTSSON L, 1996, CLIM DYNAM, V12, P261 BLAIKIE PM, RISK NATURAL HAZARDS BRENNER S, 1996, J CLIMATE 2, V9, P3337 BULDYREV SV, 1993, PHYS REV LETT, V71, P1776 BULDYREV SV, 1995, PHYS REV E, V51, P5084 BUNDE A, FRACTALS SCI BUNDE A, 2000, PHYS REV LETT, V85, P3736 CHARNEY JG, 1979, J ATMOS SCI, V36, P1205 CORTI S, 1999, NATURE, V398, P799 FEDER J, 1989, FRACTALS GIORGI F, 1990, J CLIMATE, V3, P941 GORDON C, 2000, CLIM DYNAM, V16, P147 GORDON HB, 1997, MON WEATHER REV, V125, P875 GOVINDAN, IN PRESS PHYSICA A GRASSL H, 1999, INTERDISCIPL SCI REV, V24, P185 HASSELMANN K, 1997, CLIM DYNAM, V13, P601 HASSELMANN K, 1997, SCIENCE, V276, P914 HIRST AC, 1996, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V23, P3361 IVANOV PC, 1999, EUROPHYS LETT, V48, P4 KANTELHARDT JW, 2001, IN PRESS PHYSICA A KOSCIELNYBUNDE E, 1996, PHYSICA A, V231, P393 KOSCIELNYBUNDE E, 1998, PHILOS MAG B, V77, P1331 KOSCIELNYBUNDE E, 1998, PHYS REV LETT, V81, P729 LATIF M, 1994, SCIENCE, V266, P634 LEGGETT J, 1992, CLIMATE CHANGE 1992 MANABE S, 1991, J CLIMATE, V4, P785 MANABE S, 1992, J CLIMATE, V5, P105 MOLINARI RL, 1997, J GEOPHYS RES-OCEANS, V102, P3267 OBERHUBER JM, 1997, 7 DKRZ PENG CK, 1992, NATURE, V356, P168 PHILANDER SG, 1990, INT GEOPHYSICS SERIE, V46 PRICE C, 1998, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V25, P3963 RODWELL MJ, 1999, NATURE, V398, P320 SCHELLNHUBER HJ, 1999, NATURE S, V402, C19 SHUKLA J, 1998, SCIENCE, V282, P728 SUTTON RT, 1997, NATURE, V388, P563 TAKLE ES, 1999, IN PRESS J GEOPHYS R VETTERLI M, 1995, WAVELETS SUBBANE COD VOSS R, 1999, 298 M PLANCK I MET NR 45 TC 0 J9 FRACTALS BP 205 EP 216 PY 2003 PD FEB VL 11 GA 663EE UT ISI:000181992600023 ER PT J AU Mimura, N TI Vulnerability of island countries in the South Pacific to sea level rise and climate change SO CLIMATE RESEARCH LA English DT Article C1 Ibaraki Univ, Ctr Water Environm Studies, Ibaraki, Osaka 3168511, Japan. RP Mimura, N, Ibaraki Univ, Ctr Water Environm Studies, Ibaraki, Osaka 3168511, Japan. AB An assessment of the vulnerability to sea level rise and climate change was performed for island countries in the South Pacific (Tonga, Fiji, Samoa, and Tuvalu) under the collaboration of Japanese experts and the South Pacific Regional Environment Programme. A combination of experience-based and scientific methods were developed to reveal the overall vulnerability of and possible impacts on the coastal zone sectors. The studies identified the common impacts on and vulnerability of these countries. Inundation and flooding are the common threats to these islands because, of their low-lying setting; the problem is exacerbated by the social trends of population growth and migration to main islands, in particular to the capital cities. Other threats include beach erosion, saltwater intrusion, and impacts on the infrastructure and coastal society. For the island countries, the response to sea level rise and climate change focuses on adaptation rather than on reduction of greenhouse gas emissions (that is, mitigation). Based on the results of the vulnerability assessment, the concept of and options for adaptation are also discussed. CR *IPCC CZMS, 1991, COMM METH ASS VULN S *IPCC WG3, 1990, CLIM CHANG IPCC RESP WATSON RT, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, V1, P1 FIFITA P, 1992, P IPCC CZMS WORKSH R, P119 KAY R, 1993, ASSESSMENT COASTAL V KAY RC, 1993, VULNERABILITY ASSESS, P213 MACIVER DC, 1998, ADAPTATION CLIMATE V MIMURA N, 1997, J COASTAL RES, V24, P117 MIMURA N, 1998, J COASTAL RES, V14, P37 NUNN PD, 1993, ASSESSMENT COASTAL V NUNN PD, 1994, ASSESSMENT COASTAL V NUNN PD, 1996, COASTAL VULNERABILIT NUNN PD, 1997, J COASTAL RES, V24, P133 OHNO E, 1996, P 5 WORLD C REG SCI SEM G, 1996, COASTAL VULNERABILIT YAMADA K, 1995, J GLOBAL ENV ENG, V1, P101 NR 16 TC 0 J9 CLIMATE RES BP 137 EP 143 PY 1999 PD AUG 27 VL 12 IS 2-3 GA V3096 UT ISI:000171723000011 ER PT J AU Lloret, J Marin, A Marin-Guirao, L Carreno, MF TI An alternative approach for managing scuba diving in small marine protected areas SO AQUATIC CONSERVATION-MARINE AND FRESHWATER ECOSYSTEMS LA English DT Article C1 Univ Murcia, Dept Ecol & Hidrol, E-30100 Murcia, Spain. RP Lloret, J, Univ Murcia, Dept Ecol & Hidrol, E-30100 Murcia, Spain. AB 1. As the interest of divers in exploring marine protected areas grows, so does their impact on sensitive marine organisms and communities. This situation has led managers to adopt a variety of measures to manage scuba diving in marine reserves. However, if marine areas need to be managed and protected from the adverse effects of human activities, then the characterization of marine habitats and the communities they contain, along with the potential effects of scuba diving, will need to be evaluated on scientific lines. 2. To this end, the use of benthic mapping, together with an evaluation of community vulnerability, constitutes a complementary tool for managing scuba diving, as is demonstrated in the present study. 3. The identification and evaluation of the different communities observed in Cabo de Palos-Islas Hormigas Marine Reserve enables managers to propose different measures for controlling potential diver impact and also for evaluating the effects of these measures, thus reducing the degradation of the benthic organisms and communities, benefiting the local tourism industry and allowing a more sustainable use of the marine reserve resources. Copyright (c) 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. CR BARKER NHL, 2004, BIOL CONSERV, V120, P481 BENEDETTICECCHI L, 2003, MAR ENVIRON RES, V55, P429 BROWN K, 2001, ECOL ECON, V37, P417 CALVINCALVO JC, 1999, LITORAL SUMERGIDO RE COMA R, 1999, 1 JORNADAS INT RESER, P54 DAVIS D, 1995, OCEAN COAST MANAGE, V26, P19 DRAPER D, 2003, BIOL CONSERV, V113, P337 FRANCOUR P, 2001, AQUAT CONSERV, V11, P155 GARRABOU J, 1998, CONSERV BIOL, V12, P302 HARRIOTT V, 1997, AMBIO, V26, P173 HAWKINS JP, 1999, CONSERV BIOL, V13, P888 JEGO P, 1992, MEDPAN NEWS, V3, P91 KELLY NM, 2001, AQUAT CONSERV, V11, P437 MARION JL, 1996, ECOL APPL, V6, P520 MUNDET L, 2001, TOURISM MANAGE, V22, P501 PLATHONG S, 2000, CONSERV BIOL, V14, P1821 PULFRICH A, 2003, AQUAT CONSERV, V13, P233 RIBERASIGUAN MA, 1992, 2 CONV INT I CI MAR, P152 RICHEZ G, 1992, MEDPAN NEWS, V3, P85 RIEGL B, 2000, AQUAT CONSERV, V10, P127 ROBERTS L, 1994, RECENT ADV MARINE SC, P695 ROFF JC, 2000, AQUAT CONSERV, V10, P209 ROFF JC, 2003, AQUAT CONSERV, V13, P77 ROS J, 2002, MONOGRAFIES, V34, P51 ROUPHAEL AB, 1997, BIOL CONSERV, V82, P329 ROUPHAEL AB, 2001, BIOL CONSERV, V100, P281 ROUPHAEL T, 1995, 4 CRC REEF RES CTR TRATALOS JA, 2001, BIOL CONSERV, V102, P67 URBANSKI JA, 2003, ESTUAR COAST SHELF S, V56, P99 ZACHARIAS MA, 2005, CONSERV BIOL, V19, P86 ZAKAI D, 2002, BIOL CONSERV, V105, P179 NR 31 TC 0 J9 AQUAT CONSERV BP 579 EP 591 PY 2006 PD SEP-OCT VL 16 IS 6 GA 097CB UT ISI:000241422800004 ER PT J AU Baalousha, H TI Vulnerability assessment for the Gaza Strip, palestine using DRASTIC SO ENVIRONMENTAL GEOLOGY LA English DT Article C1 Aachen Univ Technol RWTH, Inst Hydraul Engn & Water Resources Management, D-52056 Aachen, Germany. RP Baalousha, H, Aachen Univ Technol RWTH, Inst Hydraul Engn & Water Resources Management, Mies Rohe Str 1, D-52056 Aachen, Germany. AB The main usefulness of groundwater vulnerability assessment maps is their ability to be an effective preliminary tool for planning, policy, and operational levels of decision-making. DRASTIC is one such assessment method. The DRASTIC index is made up of a calculated sum of products rating and weights for seven hydrogeological parameters that contribute to aquifer vulnerability. With the help of GIS, and based on the available data, maps of DRASTIC parameters were prepared for the Gaza Strip area in a case study. Each map was given a proper rate and a special weight factor developed. The final vulnerability map was obtained as a summation of the seven maps after multiplying each one with the appropriate weight. The vulnerability map was checked against the actual pollution potential in the area and nitrate concentration. The obtained vulnerability map is strongly correlated to known pollution values in the area. CR *ARIJ, 1994, GAZ ENV PROF TECHN R *COMM GEOSC ENV RE, 2000, NAT ATT GROUNDW REM *EPA, 1996, DRINK WAT REG HLTH A *FAO UN NAT, 1995, NAT FARM DAT HDB OCC *GAO, 1992, GAOPEMD936 *MOPIC, 1996, 1 MOPIC *MOPIC, 1996, ATL MAPS GAZ STRIP *PCBS, 2000, PROJ MIDY POP PAL TE *PWA, 2001, HYDR DAT BOOK TECHN *US GEOL SURV, 1998, OV MIDDL E WAT RES W ALLER L, 1986, P NWWA API C PETR HY, P38 BAALOUSHA H, 2004, RISK ASSESSMENT UNCE FRITCH TG, 2000, ENVIRON MANAGE, V25, P337 IBE KM, 2001, ENVIRON MONIT ASSESS, V67, P323 LYNCH SD, 1997, S AFR J SCI, V93, P59 MELLOUL A, 1991, HYDROGEOLOGICAL ATLA PADAGETT D, 1994, ENV PROF, V16, P211 SHOMAR BH, 2005, ENVIRON RES, V98, P372 VRBA J, 1994, 16 INT CONTR HYDR NR 19 TC 0 J9 ENVIRON GEOL BP 405 EP 414 PY 2006 PD JUN VL 50 IS 3 GA 051OO UT ISI:000238170600011 ER PT J AU Kratovits, A Punning, JM TI Driving forces for the formation of environmental policy in the Baltic countries SO AMBIO LA English DT Article C1 Tallinn Pedag Univ, Chair Geoecol, Tallinn, Estonia. RP Kratovits, A, Toompulestee 24, EE-15172 Tallinn, Estonia. AB The article elaborates on the role of international environmental regimes and multilateral environmental agreements in the process of development of environmental policy in the 3 Baltic countries; Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania. Comparison of emission trends and changes in the state of the environment with reference to international environmental regimes allow one to conclude that there is no clear link between the official accession to environmental conventions and changes in environmental fields. The Baltic countries first joined international environmental regimes dealing with global or regional environmental security, while acceptance of the agreements and accession to regimes seen as more important from the point of view of solving their own environmental problems, took place later. Therefore, it can be concluded that the Baltic countries have seen the international legal instruments in their environmental policies as preventive, rather than curative instruments. Active participation in multilateral environmental agreements (MEAs) has, on the other hand, substantially contributed to the readiness of the Baltic countries to take the next step in their environmental policy-taking over the environmental policies (Acquis Communautaire) of the European Union. CR 1999, STATE WORLD *BALT ENV FOR, 1998, BALT STAT ENV REP BA *MIN ENV ENV INF C, 1998, EST 2 NAT REP UN FRA *MIN ENV PROT LITH, 1996, LITH ENV STRAT *MIN ENV PROT LITH, 1996, LITH ENV STRAT, P36 *MIN ENV PROT REG, 1995, NAT ENV POL PLAN LAT *MIN ENV PROT REG, 1998, ENV PROT POL LATV *MIN ENV REP EST D, 2000, DAT EM SO2 NOX CO PR *MIN ENV, 1992, NAT REP EST UNCED 19 *NORD PRJ FUN, 1991, ENV SIT PROJ ID LATV *OECD, 1998, EV PROGR DEV IMPL NA *TALL RAAM, 1997, EST NAT ENV STRAT *UN, 1992, ENV CONV EL AUSP UN *UNEP, 1997, UNEP ENV LAW TRAIN M *UNEP, 1999, GLOB ENV OUTL 2000 BANKS A, 1991, LITHUANIAS ENV PROBL BIRNIE P, 1995, BASIC DOCUMENTS INT BREITMEIER H, 1997, GLOBAL GOVERNANCE DR, P87 DREIFELDS J, 1995, ENV RESOURCES CONSTR, P109 FITZMAURICE M, 1992, INT LEGAL PROBLEMS E HAAS P, 1995, REGIME THEORY INT RE HASENCLEVER A, 1997, THEORIES INT REGIMES HIDEN J, 1991, BALTIC NATIONS EUROP KRITKAUSKY R, 1995, ENV RESOURCES CONSTR, P125 PRYDE PR, 1991, ENV MANAGEMENT SOVIE PUNNING JM, 1997, AMBIO, V26, P493 RAUKAS A, 1999, PAST POLLTUTION SOVI SOOT S, 1995, ENV RESOURCES CONSTR, P95 YOUNG O, 1997, GLOBAL GOVERNANCE DR, P1 NR 29 TC 1 J9 AMBIO BP 443 EP 449 PY 2001 PD NOV VL 30 IS 7 GA 502BR UT ISI:000172724300007 ER PT J AU Chowdhury, RR TI Landscape change in the Calakmul Biosphere Reserve, Mexico: Modeling the driving forces of smallholder deforestation in land parcels SO APPLIED GEOGRAPHY LA English DT Review C1 Univ Miami, Dept Geog & Reg Studies, Coral Gables, FL 33124 USA. RP Chowdhury, RR, Univ Miami, Dept Geog & Reg Studies, 1000 Mem Dr, Coral Gables, FL 33124 USA. AB This article uses remote sensing and spatial modeling to quantify and analyze land change in Mexico's largest protected area, the Calakmul Biosphere Reserve. Change trajectories are identified within distinct property regimes and between the Reserve's core and buffer zones. A parcel-level spatial econometric model identifies the driving forces of land use change in two communities located along the eastern edge of the Reserve. the locus of increased deforestation in 1957-1996. The study assesses the role of biophysical variables, locational context, household socioeconomics and institutional factors in driving deforestation. The results address the effectiveness of reserves and other state policy instruments in protecting forests. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *CAMP STAT GOV, 1997, CAL VOLT SUR *FAO, 1999, STAT WORLDS FOR 1999 *INEGI, 1990, EST UN MEX RES GEN 1 *WORLD BANK, 1995, MEX RES CONS FOR SEC ABIZAID C, 2004, LAND USE POLICY, V21, P71 ACHARD F, 1998, IDENTIFICATION DEFOR ANGELSEN A, 1999, WORLD BANK RES OBSER, V14, P73 ANSELIN L, 1988, PAP REG SCI ASSOC, V65, P11 ANSELIN L, 2002, AGR ECON, V27, P247 BARROW CJ, 1991, LAND DEGRADATION DEV BASSETT TJ, 1988, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V78, P453 BATISSE M, 1997, ENVIRONMENT, V39, P6 BRANDON K, 1998, PARKS PERIL PEOPLE P, P1 BRAY DB, 2004, LAND USE POLICY, V21, P333 BROSIUS JP, 1998, SOC NATUR RESOUR, V11, P157 CHOMITZ KM, 1996, WORLD BANK ECON REV, V10, P487 CHOWDHURY RR, UNPUB DRIVING FORCES CHOWDHURY RR, UNPUB RECONCILING AG CHOWDHURY RR, 2003, THESIS CLARK U WORCE CHOWDHURY RR, 2004, INTEGRATED LAND CHAN, P105 CINCOTTA RP, 2000, NATURES PLACE HUMAN CROPPER M, 1999, LAND ECON, V75, P58 DAILY GC, 2000, SCIENCE, V289, P395 DEFRIES RS, 1999, GLOBAL BIOGEOCHEM CY, V13, P803 DEJONG W, 2001, FOREST ECOL MANAG, V150, P135 FOX J, 2003, PEOPLE ENV APPROACHE FULLER DO, UNPUB TROPICAL FORES GEISLER C, 2003, INT SOC SCI J, V175, P69 GEOGHEGAN J, 2001, AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON, V85, P25 GEOGHEGAN J, 2004, INTEGRATED LAND CHAN, P247 GREENBERG JA, 2005, REMOTE SENS ENVIRON, V96, P202 HACHILEKA E, 2003, S AFRICAN GEOGRAPHIC, V85, P50 HAENN N, 1999, HUM ECOL, V27, P477 HAYES DJ, 2002, LANDSCAPE ECOL, V17, P299 HOUGHTON RA, 2000, NATURE, V403, P301 KASPERSON JX, 1995, REGIONS RISK, V1, P1 KASS DCL, 1999, AGROFOREST SYST, V47, P13 KISS A, 1990, LIVING WILDLIFE WILD KLEPEIS P, 2003, ECON GEOGR, V79, P221 KLEPEIS P, 2004, INTEGRATED LAND CHAN, P145 KLOOSTER DJ, 1997, THESIS U CALIFORNIA KUMMER DM, 1992, PHOTOGRAMMETRIC ENG, V58, P1469 LAMBERT DP, 1996, HUM ECOL, V24, P427 LAMBIN EF, 2003, ANNU REV ENV RESOUR, V28, P205 LANEY RM, 2002, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V92, P702 LAWRENCE VB, 2002, BELL LABS TECH J, V6, P1 LIVERMAN DM, 1998, PEOPLE PIXELS LINKIN LUQUE SS, 2000, INT J REMOTE SENS, V21, P2589 MADDALA GS, 1983, LTD DEPENDENT QUALIT MBILE P, 2005, J ENVIRON MANAGE, V76, P1 MCNEELY JA, 2003, J SUSTAINABLE FOREST, V16, P1 MERTENS B, 2000, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V90, P467 MILLER K, 2001, DEFINING COMMON GROU MOONEY HA, 2000, INVASIVE SPECIES CHA MORAN E, 2000, HUMAN ADAPTABILITY I MUNROE DK, 2002, AGR ECON, V27, P355 MUNROE DK, 2004, PROF GEOGR, V56, P544 MYERS N, 1994, CAUSES TROPICAL DEFO, P27 NADKARNI NM, 2004, CONSERV BIOL, V18, P602 NELSON GC, 2001, LAND ECON, V77, P187 NEUMANN RP, 1997, DEV CHANGE, V28, P559 OSTROM E, 1990, GOVERNING COMMONS EV OVERMARS KP, 2003, ECOL MODEL, V164, P257 PAUDEL GS, 2004, APPL GEOGR, V24, P35 PEREZSALICRUP D, 2004, INTEGRATED LAND CHAN, P63 PERZ SG, 2002, WORLD DEV, V30, P1009 PFAFF ASP, 1999, J ENVIRON ECON MANAG, V37, P26 PIANKA ER, 1966, AM NAT, V100, P33 PRIMACK R, 1993, ESSENTIALS CONSERVAT READ L, 2003, ECOL APPL, V13, P85 READ L, 2003, ECOSYSTEMS, V6, P747 REDFORD KH, 1999, CONSERV BIOL, V13, P1246 ROBBINS P, 2004, POLITICAL ECOLOGY CR ROBINSON JG, 1993, CONSERV BIOL, V7, P20 SCHELHAS J, 2002, NATURAL RESOURCE FOR, V26, P140 SCHMIDTSOLTAU K, 2003, DEV CHANGE, V34, P525 SERNEELS S, 2001, INT J REMOTE SENS, V22, P3397 SHARMA UR, 1990, LANDSCAPE URBAN PLAN, V19, P133 SHUKLA J, 1990, SCIENCE, V247, P1322 SKOLE D, 1993, SCIENCE, V260, P1905 SMITH AP, 1997, CONSERV BIOL, V11, P498 SOUTHGATE D, 1993, AMBIO, V22, P163 STEFFEN W, 2003, GLOBAL CHANGE EARTH STONE M, 2004, ENVIRON MANAGE, V33, P12 SUNDBERG JR, 2002, CANADIAN J LATIN AM, V27, P73 TERBORGH J, 1999, REQUIEM NATURE TURNER BL, 1983, ONCE BENEATH FOREST TURNER BL, 1987, COMP FARMING SYSTEMS TURNER BL, 1996, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V93, P14984 TURNER BL, 2001, FOREST ECOL MANAG, V154, P343 TURNER BL, 2003, LOWLAND MAYA AREA 30 TURNER BL, 2004, INTEGRATED LAND CHAN VANCE C, 2004, INTEGRATED LAND CHAN, P221 VITOUSEK PM, 1997, SCIENCE, V277, P494 WALKER R, 2004, INT REGIONAL SCI REV, V27, P247 WELLS M, 2004, AMBIO, V33, P513 WELLS MP, 1992, PEOPLE PARKS LINKING WHITMORE T, 2001, CULTIVATED LANDSCAPE WILSON EO, 1988, BIODIVERSITY ZIMMERER KS, 2003, POLITICAL ECOLOGY IN ZIMMERER KS, 2004, AMBIO, V33, P520 NR 101 TC 0 J9 APPL GEOGR BP 129 EP 152 PY 2006 PD APR VL 26 IS 2 GA 065BQ UT ISI:000239134800004 ER PT J AU KHAN, MM MOCK, NB JEANNODA, V BAKER, SK TI IS MADAGASCAR BECOMING INCREASINGLY VULNERABLE TO FOOD CRISES SO ECOLOGY OF FOOD AND NUTRITION LA English DT Article C1 FOOD & NUTR SURVEILLANCE PROGRAM,PNSAN,MALAGASY REPUBL. TULANE UNIV,DEPT HLTH SYST MANAGEMENT,NEW ORLEANS,LA 70112. TULANE UNIV,INT HLTH ACAD PROGRAM,NEW ORLEANS,LA 70112. AB The physical need or status-quo approaches have not provided the appropriate conceptual framework for guiding food aid policies. As a response to this, models based on household or individual behavior are being articulated to explain food vulnerability. However, due to the complexity of these models and their data requirements, they have yet to become operational for the determination of food needs. This paper proposes a simple alternative approach for estimating food needs by implicitly taking into account the income distribution patterns, levels of poverty and market structure in a society. This new method, termed the ''social need'' approach, is illustrated using a case study from Madagascar. During the last decade domestic availability of major nutrients in the country remained above the total per capita caloric need (physical requirements) of the population. Nevertheless, the country experienced a major food crisis in 1982 and 1983. Because of relatively stable economic, social and political inequality in a country over the medium term, the 1982-83 food availability per Adult Equivalent Unit (AEU) can be used as the level of social need for Madagascar to prevent food-shortage-triggered social disruptions. This social need definition suggests exponentially increasing risk of food shortages in the country beginning in the early 1980s. The probability of food shortages in Madagascar was less than 10%, on average, between 1975-1985; however, it is projected to surpass 65% between 1990 and the year 2000. These findings demonstrate the need for urgent adoption of policies to influence agricultural development, socioeconomic inequalities and improved access to food for the vulnerable groups. CR 1985, ASPECTS POLITIQUE AU 1988, COUNTRY DEV STRATEGY 1988, CULTURES SUPERFICIES 1989, MANUAL FOOD NEEDS AS 1989, PRODUCTION AGRICOLE 1990, FOOD SECURTY NUTRITI ANDRIANARIVELO, 1985, POPULATION MADAGASCA BERG E, 1989, WORLD DEV, V17, P719 CLAUDIAN J, 1970, BESOINS THEORIQUES P COVELL M, 1987, MADAGASCAR POLITICS DOROSH PA, 1990, MACROECONOMIC ADJUST FRANCOIS P, 1963, BUDGETS ALIMENTATION HESELTINE N, 1971, MADAGASCAR LEBOURDIEC F, 1974, HOMMES PAYSAGES RIZ PRYOR FL, 1988, 37 WORLD BANK DISC P SEN AK, 1981, POVERTY FAMINES ESSA, V1, P1 NR 16 TC 1 J9 ECOL FOOD NUTR BP 181 EP 198 PY 1993 VL 29 IS 3 GA LX514 UT ISI:A1993LX51400002 ER PT J AU Ewers, RM Laurance, WF TI Scale-dependent patterns of deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon SO ENVIRONMENTAL CONSERVATION LA English DT Article C1 Smithsonian Trop Res Inst, Balboa, Ancon, Panama. Zool Soc London, Inst Zool, London NW1 4RY, England. Univ Cambridge, Dept Zool, Cambridge CB2 3EJ, England. RP Ewers, RM, Smithsonian Trop Res Inst, Apartado 0483-03092, Balboa, Ancon, Panama. AB Tropical forests of the Amazon Basin are being rapidly converted to agricultural land uses and fallow land, resulting in accelerating rates of forest loss in one of the world's most biodiverse ecoregions. This process has been extensively described and modelled, but as yet there has been no formal test of how the spatial patterns of deforested and fragmented areas change with the spatial scale of forest clearings. It was hypothesised that different land-use practices are driving small and large clearings, with small-scale cultivators often creating small, irregularly shaped clearings and large-scale ranchers and soy farmers creating larger, more regular-shaped clearings. To quantitatively test this hypothesis, Mandelbrot's theory of fractals was applied to deforested areas in the Brazilian Amazon to test for scale-invariance in deforestation patterns. The spatial pattern of deforestation differed between small and large clearings, with the former creating more complex landscapes and with a threshold occurring at c. 1200 ha in area. As a consequence, the sizes and shapes of forest clearings, and hence the relative vulnerability of the remaining forest to edge, area and isolation effects, may differ systematically between landscapes with different deforestation drivers. Further tests of this hypothesis are needed to assess its efficacy in other tropical landscapes and geographical locations. CR *I BRAS GEOGR EST, 1997, DIAGN AMB AM LEG *STATSOFT, 2001, STAT WIND VERS 6 0 BOLLIGER J, 2003, OIKOS, V100, P541 BOLLIGER J, 2006, ECOLOGICAL COMPLEXIT, V2, P131 BROWN JC, 2005, AMBIO, V34, P462 BROWN KS, 1987, OXFORD MONOGRAPHS BI, V3, P19 CAMARA G, 2005, METODOLOGIA CALCULO CHAUVEL A, 1987, EXPERIENTIA, V43, P234 CHOMENTOWSKI W, 1994, GIS WORLD, V7, P34 COCHRANE MA, 2002, J TROP ECOL 3, V18, P311 COSTANZA R, 1994, LANDSCAPE ECOL, V9, P47 DALE VH, 1994, CONSERV BIOL, V8, P1027 DALE VH, 1997, TROPICAL FOREST REMN, P400 DAMOTTA M, 2005, USING LEGAL MAP ALGE DIBARI JN, 2004, ECOL INDIC, V3, P275 ELVIDGE CD, 2001, INT J REMOTE SENS, V22, P2661 FAHRIG L, 2003, ANNU REV ECOL EVOL S, V34, P487 FEARNSIDE PM, 2001, ENVIRON CONSERV, V28, P23 FEARNSIDE PM, 2005, CONSERV BIOL, V19, P680 FERRARINI A, 2005, LANDSCAPE ECOL, V20, P799 GEIST HJ, 2001, LUCC REPORT SERIES, V4 GRIFFITH JA, 2000, LANDSCAPE URBAN PLAN, V52, P45 GROSSI L, 2004, ENVIRON ECOL STAT, V11, P165 HANSEN MC, 2000, INT J REMOTE SENS, V21, P1331 HELFAND SM, 2005, AGR EC, V31, P24 JOHNSON JB, 2004, TRENDS ECOL EVOL, V19, P101 JORGE LAB, 1997, FOREST ECOL MANAG, V98, P35 KRUMMEL JR, 1987, OIKOS, V48, P321 LAURANCE WF, 1998, FOREST ECOL MANAG, V110, P173 LAURANCE WF, 2001, SCIENCE, V291, P438 LAURANCE WF, 2002, J BIOGEOGR, V29, P737 LAURANCE WF, 2004, SCIENCE, V304, P1109 LOVEJOY S, 1982, SCIENCE, V216, P185 MANDELBROT BB, 1977, FRACTALS FORM CHANCE MANDELBROT BB, 1983, FRACTAL GEOMETRY NAT MARTIN Y, 2004, PROG PHYS GEOG, V28, P317 MERTENS B, 1997, APPL GEOGR, V17, P143 MERTENS B, 2002, AGR ECON, V27, P269 MOSER D, 2002, LANDSCAPE ECOL, V17, P657 MYERS D, 1999, HOUSING FACTS FINDIN, V1, P3 PATTON DR, 1975, WILDLIFE SOC B, V3, P171 RIITTERS KH, 1995, LANDSCAPE ECOL, V10, P23 RUDEL TK, 2005, TROPICAL FORESTS REG SAURA S, 2004, LANDSCAPE ECOL, V19, P647 SOARES B, 2004, GLOBAL CHANGE BIOL, V10, P745 SOARES BS, 2002, ECOL MODEL, V154, P217 SOARES BS, 2006, NATURE, V440, P520 SPROTT JC, 2002, PHYS LETT A, V297, P267 TURNER MG, 1989, LANDSCAPE ECOLOGY, V3, P153 TURNER MG, 1989, LANDSCAPE ECOLOGY, V3, P245 VALERIANO DM, 2004, ISPRS P B, V35 VELOSO HP, 1991, CLASSIFICAO VEGETACA WALKER R, 2004, ECOL APPL S, V14, S299 NR 53 TC 0 J9 ENVIRON CONSERV BP 203 EP 211 PY 2006 PD SEP VL 33 IS 3 GA 104MN UT ISI:000241962600005 ER PT J AU Klepeis, P Turner, BL TI Integrated land history and global change science: the example of the Southern Yucatan Peninsular Region project SO LAND USE POLICY LA English DT Article C1 Colgate Univ, Dept Geog, Hamilton, NY 13346 USA. Clark Univ, Grad Sch Geog, Worcester, MA 01610 USA. Clark Univ, George Perkins Marsh Inst, Worcester, MA 01610 USA. RP Klepeis, P, Colgate Univ, Dept Geog, 13 Oak Dr, Hamilton, NY 13346 USA. AB Land histories originate in multiple disciplines. The corpus of this research, however. does not link well to the science of global environmental change, despite explicit recognition by that science to incorporate land history. History acid global change science would both benefit by such linkages, which necessitates the development of "integrated land history." This interdisciplinary research subject is identified here, illustrated through the Southern Yucatan Peninsular Region project. This project addresses tropical deforestation and agricultural change in a frontier "hot spot" of biotic diversity. It seeks to inform environmental and global change science, including its human and modeling dimensions. Emphasis is placed on the mutual benefits for both land history and global change studies created by the integration in question. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. 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RP Toman, M, RAND Corp, Washington, DC USA. AB Economics has played an important role in assessing climate change impacts, and the effects of various individual and policy response strategies. Proponents of a key role for economics in analysis of climate change policies and goals argue that its capacity to incorporate and compare a variety of costs and benefits makes it uniquely useful for normative assessment. Critics of economic analysis of climate change have questioned not only its empirical capacities, but also its fundamental usefulness given some of the important but often implicit assumptions on which it is based. After reviewing this debate and its implications for public policy on climate change, the paper sketches a way in which more technical economic analysis and public dialogue might be combined. CR *UNFCCC, 1999, UNEPIUC9910 UNFCCC *UNFCCC, 1999, UNEPIUC992 UNFCCC AZAR C, 1996, ECOL ECON, V19, P169 BARRETT S, 2003, ENV STATECRAFT STRAT BLACKMAN A, 2003, THEORY PRACTICE COMM, P199 GARDINER SM, 2004, ETHICS, V114, P555 HOWARTH RB, 1996, CONTEMP ECON POLICY, V14, P100 HOWARTH RB, 2005, PERSPECTIVES CLIMATE, P99 JAMIESON D, 2005, PERSPECTIVES CLIMATE, P217 MANNE AS, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE INTEG MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 MENDELSOHN R, 1994, AM ECON REV, V84, P753 MENDELSOHN R, 1999, GREENING GLOBAL WARM METZ B, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 NORDHAUS WD, 1993, RESOUR ENERGY ECON, V15, P27 NORTON BG, 1992, UNITY ENV NORTON BG, 1997, LAND ECON, V73, P553 PORTNEY PR, 1999, DISCOUNTING INTEGENE ROSE A, 1993, RESOUR ENERGY ECON, V15, P117 ROUGHGARDEN T, 1999, ENERG POLICY, V27, P415 SCHELLING TC, 1997, FOREIGN AFF, V76, P8 SCHELLING TC, 2002, FOREIGN AFF, V81, P2 SPASH CL, 2005, GREENHOUSE EC VALUES TOMAN MA, 1994, LAND ECON, V70, P399 TOMAN MA, 1999, VALUATION ENV, P59 TOMAN MA, 2004, PAINTING WHITE HOUSE TOMAN MA, 2005, PERSPECTIVES CLIMATE, P75 WEITZMAN ML, 1998, J ENVIRON ECON MANAG, V36, P201 WEYANT J, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, P366 WIGLEY TML, 1996, NATURE, V379, P240 NR 30 TC 3 J9 ENVIRON VALUE BP 365 EP 379 PY 2006 PD AUG VL 15 IS 3 GA 089VG UT ISI:000240908900011 ER PT J AU BOWONDER, B TI INTEGRATING PERSPECTIVES IN ENVIRONMENTAL-MANAGEMENT SO ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT LA English DT Article RP BOWONDER, B, ADM STAFF COLL INDIA,CTR ENERGY ENVIRONM & TECHNOL,HYDERABAD 500049,INDIA. CR BENNETT RJ, 1977, ENV SYSTEMS BOWONDER B, 1981, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V19, P99 BOWONDER B, 1983, ENVIRON MANAGE, V7, P211 BOWONDER B, 1983, MAZINGIRA, V7, P48 BOWONDER B, 1983, PROGR RESOURCE MANAG, V4, P57 BOWONDER B, 1984, ENV PROFESSIONAL, V6, P216 BOWONDER B, 1985, ENV PROFESSIONAL, V7, P108 BOWONDER B, 1986, INTEGRATING PERSPECT BURTON I, 1974, HUMAN ECOLOGY BURTON I, 1978, ENV HAZARD, V1, P1 CHURCHMAN CW, 1961, PREDATION OPTIMAL DE COLLINGRIDGE D, 1983, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V23, P161 CONACHER A, 1980, ENVIRON MANAGE, V4, P391 CROWE BL, 1977, MANAGING COMMONS, P53 DEBONO E, 1978, MECHANISM MIND ESTER P, 1982, NETHERLANDS J SOCIOL, V18, P57 EVANS JB, 1982, FUTURES, V14, P258 FISCHHOFF B, 1979, TECHNOLGOICAL FORECA, V13, P347 GAGNE RM, 1970, CONDITIONS LEARNING HAEFELE W, 1979, ENERGY, V4, P745 JOHNSON DM, 1979, SYSTEMATIC INTRO PSY KATES RW, 1976, AMBIO, V6, P247 KATES RW, 1978, RISK ASSESSMENT ENV LAWLESS EW, 1977, TECHNOLOGY SOCIAL SH LEVY M, 1980, RENEWABLE ENERGY PRO, P999 LINSTONE HA, 1981, 811 PORTL STAT U FUT LINSTONE HA, 1981, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V20, P275 LINSTONE HA, 1984, MULTIPLE PERSPECTIVE LOCKER A, 1977, BEHAV SCI, V22, P197 LOVINS A, 1981, ENERGY J, V2, P35 MARTINO JP, 1977, TECHNOLOGICAL FORECA, V10, P381 MILLER A, 1982, ENVIRON MANAGE, V6, P535 MILLER A, 1982, ENVIRONMENTALIST, V2, P223 MILLER A, 1985, ENVIRON MANAGE, V9, P179 MILLER A, 1985, J ENVIRON MANAGE, V20, P231 MILLER S, 1985, J FUTURES MARKETS, V5, P21 MITROFF II, 1974, BEHAV SCI, V19, P383 ORIORDAN T, 1979, ENVIRONMENTALISM ORIORDAN T, 1981, J GEOGRAPHY HIGHER E, V5, P3 OTWAY H, 1976, FUTURES, V8, P122 PETAK WJ, 1980, ENVIRON MANAGE, V4, P287 POWELL A, 1982, BEHAV SCI, V27, P338 RAPOPORT A, 1977, HUMAN ASPECTS URBAN RAPOPORT A, 1978, URBAN ECOL, V3, P241 SASSEVILLE JL, 1983, ENVIRON MANAGE, V7, P263 SHAMA A, 1981, J ENV SYSTEMS, V10, P353 SHAMA A, 1982, LONG RANGE PLANNING, V15, P63 SHAMA A, 1983, ENERGY POLICY, V7, P148 SIMON HA, 1956, MODELS MAN SIMON HA, 1977, MODELS DISCOVERY SJOBERG L, 1979, POLICY SCI, V11, P39 SLOVIC P, 1979, ENVIRONMENT, V21, P14 STEINBRUNNER D, 1974, CYBERBETIC THEORY DE VONFOERSTER J, 1973, ENV DESIGN RES, V2, P35 WENK EE, 1979, MARGINS SURVIVAL WIENER A, 1979, MAGNIFICENT MYTH WILDAVSKY A, 1979, AM SCI, V67, P32 WOLMAN BB, 1974, HDB GENERAL PSYCHOL NR 58 TC 1 J9 ENVIRON MANAGE BP 305 EP 315 PY 1987 PD JUL VL 11 IS 3 GA J1987 UT ISI:A1987J198700003 ER PT J AU Ruth, M Lin, AC TI Regional energy demand and adaptations to climate change: Methodology and application to the state of Maryland, USA SO ENERGY POLICY LA English DT Article C1 Sch Publ Policy, Environm Policy Program, Hyattsville, MD 20782 USA. RP Ruth, M, Sch Publ Policy, Environm Policy Program, 3139 Van Munching Hall, Hyattsville, MD 20782 USA. AB This paper explores potential impacts of climate change on natural gas, electricity and heating oil use by the residential and commercial sectors in the state of Maryland, USA. Time series analysis is used to quantify historical temperature-energy demand relationships. A dynamic computer model uses those relationships to simulate future energy demand under a range of energy prices, temperatures and other drivers. The results indicate that climate exerts a comparably small signal on future energy demand, but that the combined climate and non-climate-induced changes in energy demand may pose significant challenges to policy and investment decisions in the state. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *EIA, EL POW MONTHL *EIA, NAT GAS MONTHL *EIA, PETR MARK MONTHL *EIA, 1995, DOEEIA0555952 *EIA, 1999, LOOK RES EN CONS 199 *EIA, 2001, ANN EN REV 2000 *EIA, 2001, STAT EN DAT REP 1999 *EPA, 1998, 236F980071 US PEA OF MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 *MAR DEP PLANN, 2004, HIST PROJ TOT POP MA *NCDC, 2004, ENV INF SER C, V23 *NOAA, 2003, SUNR SUNS CALC *US BUR EC AN, 2002, TOT FULL TIM PART TI *US CENS BUR, 2004, STAT POP EST *US GLOB CHANG RES, 2000, US NAT ASS POT IMP C AMATO A, 2005, IN PRESS CLIMATIC CH BADRI MA, 1992, ENERGY, V17, P725 BARRON E, 2002, POTENTIAL CONSEQUENC BELZER DB, 1996, ENERG SOURCE, V18, P177 BOUSTEAD I, 1994, CONSERV RECYCLING, V12, P121 CARTALIS C, 2001, ENERG CONVERS MANAGE, V42, P1647 DEDEAR R, 2001, INT J BIOMETEOROL, V45, P100 GRECO S, 67 IPCC WMO UNEP JAGER J, 1983, CLIMATE ENERGY SYSTE LAKSHMANAN TR, 1980, REGIONAL SCI URBAN E, V10, P371 LAM JC, 1998, ENERG CONVERS MANAGE, V39, P623 LEHMAN RL, 1994, J APPL METEOROL, V33, P96 LINDER KP, 1990, POTENTIAL EFFECTS GL MORRIS M, 1999, IMPACT TEMPERATURE T MORRISON W, 1998, IMPACTS CLIMATE CHAN MURPHY R, 2002, ENVIRON HIST, V8, P43 NALL D, 1979, ASHRAE T, V85, P1 PARDO A, 2002, ENERG ECON, V24, P55 PRESSMAN N, 1995, NO CITYSCAPE LINKING ROSENTHAL DH, 1995, ENERGY J, V16 ROSENZWEIG C, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE GLOBA RUTH M, 2001, WORLD RESOURCES REV, V13, P106 SAILOR DJ, 1997, ENERGY, V22, P987 SAILOR DJ, 1997, WORLD RESOURCE REV, V9, P301 SAILOR DJ, 1998, ENERGY, V23, P91 SAILOR DJ, 2001, ENERGY, V26, P645 SCOTT MJ, 1994, ENERG SOURCE, V16, P317 SEGAL M, 1992, J APPL METEOROL, V31, P1492 WARREN HE, 1981, J APPL METEOROL, V20, P1431 WILBANKS TJ, 1999, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V43, P601 YAN YY, 1998, ENERGY, V23, P17 NR 46 TC 0 J9 ENERG POLICY BP 2820 EP 2833 PY 2006 PD NOV VL 34 IS 17 GA 100CG UT ISI:000241644200018 ER PT J AU Ruitenbeek, HJ TI Distribution of ecological entitlements: Implications for economic security and population movement SO ECOLOGICAL ECONOMICS LA English DT Article AB The concept of economic and environmental security is explored in a broad sense as a series of necessary entitlements to forest and other resources. Traditional measures of inequality-such as the GINI coefficient or the Atkinson index of inequality which rely on measures of the distribution of formal cash income or wealth-are regarded as flawed to the extent that they do not adequately reflect the value and distribution of access to non-marketed goods and services. An ''ecologically-sensitive''' Atkinson or GINI index is proposed as a more relevant measure of inequality and of economic and environmental security. To improve security, policies must attempt to improve the value of these indices. An empirical example is provided based on household survey data for 357 households in 24 villages in a rainforest zone of Cameroon. Analyses of data relating to forest use, incomes, and demographics provides insights into the distribution of ecological entitlements across various income groups and into the impacts of these entitlements on economic and environmental security (through measures related to population migration). The empirical analysis demonstrates a number of important conclusions: (a) use of ecologically adjusted indices provides a more complete picture of inequality-inequality in the forest zone is less pervasive than traditional measures would have us believe; (b) traditional forest entitlements contribute positively to reducing inequality and improving security; and (c) income support programs targeted to conventional cash crops (cocoa and coffee) increase inequality and reduce security. The analyses also demonstrate that, when other economic factors have been taken into account, population movement can be a useful indicator of environmental security. An analysis of migration, demographic and income patterns suggests that low population movement in this zone can be construed as an indicator of higher environmental security. The analysis also provides direct evidence that a decline in ecological entitlements increases the probability of migration out of an area. 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Coastal erosion in the tropics SO SINGAPORE JOURNAL OF TROPICAL GEOGRAPHY LA English DT Review C1 Natl Univ Singapore, Dept Geog, Singapore 0511, Singapore. RP Wong, PP, Natl Univ Singapore, Dept Geog, Singapore 0511, Singapore. AB From a physical geography perspective, tropical coasts are characterised by coral reefs, mangroves and carbonate beaches on atolls and low reef islands. They face threats not only from sea level rise, but also from human activities that destroy mangroves, degrade coral reefs and accelerate beach erosion. Physical conditions in the tropics are suitable for the ideal tourist beach. Conceptually, the tourist coast can be considered as the integration of a physical system (the coast) and a human system (tourism). Studies have been carried out on various types of tourist coasts in Southeast Asia. For many atoll island states, sea level rise is more than just a threat to their tourism; it also determines their survival. In recent years, assessments of their vulnerability and adaptation have favoured a more integrative approach of physical and human sciences. Hopefully, this should result in a better analytical tropical geography that could play an important role in reducing coastal erosion and assist the small island states. 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AcciWeather Inc, State Coll, PA 16803 USA. RP Kolivras, KN, Virginia Polytech Inst & State Univ, Dept Geog, 115 Major Williams Hall, Blacksburg, VA 24061 USA. AB Flash floods are one of the most dangerous weather-related natural disasters in the world. These events develop less than six hours after a rainfall event and create hazardous situations for people and extensive damage to property. It is critical for flash flood conditions to be warned of in a timely manner to minimize impacts. There is currently a knowledge gap between flood experts and the general public about the level of perceived risk that the latter has toward the powerful flood waters and how events should be warned of, which affects the communication capabilities and efficiency of the warning process. Prior research has addressed risk perception of natural disasters, but there is little emphasis on flash floods within flood-prone regions of the United States. This research utilizes an online survey of 300 respondents to determine the current state of flash flood awareness and preparation in southwest Virginia. Analysis of trends involved the use of chi-squared tests (chi(2)) and simple frequency and percentage calculations. Results reveal that a knowledge base of flash floods does exist, but is not advanced enough for proper awareness. Young adults have a lower understanding and are not as concerned about flood impacts. Increased exposure and perceived risk play a key role in shaping the way a person approaches flash floods. People do monitor flood events, but they are unaware of essential guidance and communication mechanisms. Finally, results suggest that the current method of warning about flash floods is not provided at an appropriate level of detail for effective communication. CR *ESRI, 2006, DAT *FED EM MAN AG, 1993, FLOODS FLASH FLOODS *FED EM MAN AG, 2006, FLOOD STAT *NAT CLIM DAT CTR, 2006, CLIM EXTR WEATH EV *NAT WEATH SERV, 2005, NAT WEATH SERV GLOSS *SE REG CLIM CTR, HIST CLIM SUMM *US BUR CENS, 2006, AM FACTFINDER *US GEOL SURV, 2000, SIGN FLOODS US 20 CE *US GEOL SURV, 2005, PEAK STREAMFL NAT *US GEOL SURV, 2006, SURF WAT DAT VIRG *VIRG DEP CONS REC, 2005, VIRG MAJ WAT ALRECK PL, 2004, SURVEY RES HDB BARNETT J, 2001, RISK ANAL, V21, P171 BEYER JL, 1974, NATURAL HAZARDS LOCA, P265 CARSELL KM, 2004, NATURAL HAZARDS REV, V5, P131 CUTTER SL, 1996, PROG HUM GEOG, V20, P529 DAVID M, 2004, SOCIAL RES BASICS FARRE RS, 2002, PROBABILISTIC SAFETY, P133 FREWER L, 2004, TOXICOL LETT, V149, P391 GREGG CE, 2004, J VOLCANOL GEOTH RES, V130, P179 GRUNTFEST E, 2002, EVALUATION BOULDER C JOHNSTON D, 1998, AUSTR J DISASTER TRA KASPERSON RE, 1988, RISK ANAL, V8, P177 KRIPPENDORFF K, 2004, CONTENT ANAL INTRO I MILETI DS, 1999, DISASTERS DESIGN MITCHELL JK, 1989, GEOGRAPHY AM, P410 MONTZ BE, 2004, GEOGRAPHY AM DAWN 21, P481 NOETHER GE, 1991, INTRO STAT NONPARAME PAGANO M, 2000, PRINCIPLES BIOSTATIS PARFITT J, 1997, METHODS HUMAN GEOGRA, P76 SWEENEY TL, 1992, 44 NOAA NWS TAKAO K, 2004, J RISK RES, V12, P1 WATSON BM, 2005, VIRG FLOODS WHITE GF, 1964, CHOICE ADJUSTMENT FL WHITE GF, 1974, NATURAL HAZARDS WHITE GF, 1975, FLOOD HAZARD US RES WHITE GF, 1988, RISK ANAL, V8, P171 ZHAI G, 2002, COMPUT INTELL, P208 NR 38 TC 0 J9 RISK ANAL BP 155 EP 169 PY 2007 PD FEB VL 27 IS 1 GA 144LS UT ISI:000244798100015 ER PT J AU Devkota, SR TI Is strong sustainability operational? An example from Nepal SO SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT LA English DT Article C1 Dickinson Coll, Dept Econ, Carlisle, PA 17013 USA. RP Devkota, SR, Dickinson Coll, Dept Econ, Carlisle, PA 17013 USA. AB This paper explores the ways that local people in different parts of the globe are working at the local level toward sustainable development, whether knowingly or unknowingly. Community forest management at the local level in Nepal is a successful model of sustainability. It exemplifies the ideals of strong sustainability, which enhances natural, economic and social capitals concurrently. The objective of such groups is to try to avoid 'the tragedy of the commons', and to conserve forests and obtain forest products by sustainably managing local forests. In addition, people realize indirect benefits of forest protection such as further control of landslides, and improvement of local watershed and microclimate. Further, users' groups are not only taking the forest products, but also increasing the forest stock, which is an act of natural capital enhancement. In addition, local communities are not only satisfying their demand for natural resources, but are also determined to increase their socioecological resource potential for the future. Copyright (c) 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment. CR *MIN FOR SOIL CONS, 2002, NEP BIOD STRAT *MOPE UNEP ICIMOD, 2001, STAT ENV *NIDC, 1973, PROSP IND INV NEP *WORLD BANK, 1999, 445 WORLD BANK *WORLD BANK, 2001, 217 WORLD BANK ACHARYA KP, 2002, INT FOR REV, V4, P149 ADELMAN I, 2001, FRONTIERS DEV EC FUT, P103 AGARWAL B, 2001, WORLD DEV, V29, P1623 AYRES RU, 2001, ENVIRON ETHICS, V23, P155 BAJRACHARYA D, 1983, WORLD DEV, V11, P1057 BARTELMUS P, 2003, ECOL ECON, V46, P61 BECKERMAN W, 1994, ENVIRON VALUE, V3, P191 BECKERMAN W, 2001, JUSTICE POSTERITY EN BROMLEY DW, 1998, AGR ENV PERSPECTIVES BROMLEY DW, 2001, I POVERTY SUSTAINABI CHAKRABORTY RN, 2001, ECOL ECON, V36, P341 CHAUDHARY RP, 2000, BIODIVERS CONSERV, V9, P1235 COASE RH, 1960, J LAW ECON, V3, P1 COSTANZA R, 1992, CONSERV BIOL, V6, P37 DALY HE, 1995, ENVIRON VALUE, V4, P49 DEVKOTA SR, 1999, ECOL ECON, V28, P31 DEVKOTA SR, 2003, THESIS RENSSELAER PO DONGOL CM, 2002, MT RES DEV, V22, P70 EDMONDS EV, 2002, J DEV ECON, V68, P89 FEHR E, 2002, ECON J, V112, C1 FRANCESCHI D, 2003, INT J SUST DEV WORLD, V10, P211 GEORGESCUROEGEN N, 1986, E ECON J, V12, P3 GERLAGH R, 2002, J ENVIRON ECON MANAG, V44, P329 GETZNER M, 1999, ENV MANAGEMENT HLTH, V10, P170 GILMOUR DA, 1991, VILLAGERS FORESTS FO GOODLAND R, 1995, ANNU REV ECOL SYST, V26, P1 GOODLAND R, 1996, ECOL APPL, V6, P1002 GOWDY JM, 1999, LAND ECON, V75, P333 GOWDY JM, 2000, WILDLIFE SOC B, V28, P26 HANLEY N, 1999, ECOL ECON, V28, P55 HARDIN G, 1968, SCIENCE, V162, P1243 HARKONEN E, 2002, MOUNTAIN RES DEV, V22, P85 HEDIGER W, 1997, SUSTAIN DEV, V5, P101 HOLLING CS, 2002, PANARCHY UNDERSTANDI, P395 HUETING R, 1998, ECOL ECON, V27, P139 IVES JD, 1989, HIMALAYAN DILEMMA RE JACKSON WJ, 1995, P SEM COMM DEV CONS KARKI M, 1994, SUSTAINABLE MANAGEME KATES RW, 2001, SCIENCE, V292, P641 KLOOSTER DJ, 2000, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V10, P259 MEBRATU D, 1998, ENVIRON IMPACT ASSES, V18, P493 MUNASINGHE M, 2001, INT J GLOBAL ENV ISS, V1, P13 NEUMAYER E, 1999, WEAK VERSUS STRONG S NEUMAYER E, 2001, ECOL ECON, V39, P101 NORGAARD R, 1994, DEV BETRAYED END PRO OTSUKA K, 2001, COMMUNITIES MARKET E PEARCE DW, 2000, BLUEPRINT SUSTAINABL PEARSON SM, 1993, LANDSCAPE ECOL, V8, P3 PEZZEY J, 1992, ENVIRON VALUE, V1, P321 PEZZEY JC, 2002, 0203 RES FUT PRUGH T, 2000, LOCAL POLITICS GLOBA ROUTLEDGE BR, 2003, J MONETARY ECON, V50, P167 SAKURAI T, 2001, LAND TENURE NATURAL SERAFY SE, 1996, ENVIRON VALUE, V5, P75 SHRESTHA NR, 2001, POLITICAL EC LAND LA SOLOW RM, 1974, REV ECON STUD, V41, P29 SOLOW RM, 1986, SCAND J ECON, V88, P141 SOLOW RM, 1992, WOODS HOL OC I MA 19 SOUSSAN J, 1995, SOCIAL DYNAMICS DEFO STREETEN PP, 1995, THINKING DEV TACHIBANA T, 2001, LAND TENURE NATURAL TOMER JF, 2001, J SOCIOECONOMICS, V30, P281 VARUGHESE G, 2001, WORLD DEV, V29, P747 WELLS MP, 1998, INT J SOC ECON, V25, P226 NR 69 TC 0 J9 SUSTAIN DEV BP 297 EP 310 PY 2005 PD DEC VL 13 IS 5 GA 992MU UT ISI:000233888900003 ER PT J AU SCHWEITZER, J TI CONSERVING BIODIVERSITY IN DEVELOPING-COUNTRIES SO FISHERIES LA English DT Article RP SCHWEITZER, J, US AGCY INT DEV,320-21ST ST NW,ROOM 4942,WASHINGTON,DC 20523. AB Countries richest in biological diversity ironically are often the poorest economically. In these countries, in which humans struggle daily to meet urgent basic needs, efforts to protect the environment will succeed only if implemented in the context of promoting economic growth. Yet economic growth itself depends on the normal functioning of ecosystems and on a sustainable supply of natural resources. This mutual dependence of development and environmental protection must provide the conceptual basis for any successful effort to protect diversity in the third world. Accordingly, the U.S. government, through the Agency for International Development (USAID), supports an extensive program to protect the world's biological resources as an integral component of foreign assistance. A primary goal of USAID's biodiversity program is to maximize the potential for both economic and environmental security in developing countries. A greater reliance on market forces, the judicious application of economic incentives, and the use of effective economic instruments within the framework of constructive regulations provide the foundation for USAID's approach to conserving biological diversity. NR 0 TC 1 J9 FISHERIES BP 35 EP 38 PY 1992 PD MAY-JUN VL 17 IS 3 GA HY387 UT ISI:A1992HY38700007 ER PT J AU Cheung, WWL Pitcher, TJ Pauly, D TI A fuzzy logic expert system to estimate intrinsic extinction vulnerabilities of marine fishes to fishing SO BIOLOGICAL CONSERVATION LA English DT Article C1 Univ British Columbia, Fisheries Ctr, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z4, Canada. RP Cheung, WWL, Univ British Columbia, Fisheries Ctr, Lower Mall Res Stn,2259 Lower Mall, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z4, Canada. AB Fishing has become a major conservation threat to marine fishes. Effective conservation of threatened species requires timely identification of vulnerable species. However, evaluation of extinction risk using conventional methods is difficult for the majority of fish species because the population data normally required by such methods are unavailable. This paper presents a fuzzy expert system that integrates life history and ecological characteristics of marine fishes to estimate their intrinsic vulnerability to fishing. We extract heuristic rules (expressed in IF-THEN clauses) from published literature describing known relationships between biological characteristics and vulnerability. Input and output variables are defined by fuzzy sets which deal explicitly with the uncertainty associated with qualitative knowledge. Conclusions from different lines of evidence are combined through fuzzy inference and defuzzification processes. Our fuzzy system provides vulnerability estimates that correlate with observed declines more closely than previous methods, and has advantages in flexibility of input data requirements, in the explicit representation of uncertainty, and in the ease of incorporating new knowledge. This fuzzy expert system can be used as a decision support tool in fishery management and marine conservation planning. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *IUCN SPEC SURV CO, 2001, IUCN RED LIST CAT CR *SCRFA GLOB DAT, 2004, SPAWN AGGR DAT SOC C ADAMS PB, 1980, FISH B-NOAA, V78, P1 AGRESTI A, 1996, INTRO CATEGORICAL DA BAUM JK, 2004, ECOL LETT, V7, P135 BRANDER K, 1981, NATURE, V290, P48 BROWN JH, 1995, MACROECOLOGY BUCHANAN BG, 1984, RULE BASED EXPERT SY CARDILLO M, 2003, ANIM CONSERV 1, V6, P63 CASEY JM, 1998, SCIENCE, V281, P690 COX E, 1999, FUZZY SYSTEMS HDB PR DENNEY NH, 2002, P ROY SOC LOND B BIO, V269, P2229 DULVY NK, 2000, CONSERV BIOL, V14, P283 DULVY NK, 2002, CONSERV BIOL, V16, P440 DULVY NK, 2003, FISH FISH, V4, P25 DULVY NK, 2004, FISH FISH, V5, P255 FRISK MG, 2001, CAN J FISH AQUAT SCI, V58, P969 FROESE R, 2003, FISHBASE HAWKINS JP, 2000, ANIM CONSERV 1, V3, P81 HAYES E, 1997, TRAFFIC OCEANIA HILBORN R, 1992, QUANTITATIVE FISHERI HILBORN R, 2003, ANNU REV ENV RESOUR, V28, P359 HILTONTAYLOR C, 2000, 2000 IUCN RED LIST T HOENIG JM, 1990, ELASMOBRANCHS LIVING HOLDEN MJ, 1973, CONSEIL INT EXPLORAT, V164, P360 HOLDEN MJ, 1974, SEA FISHERIES RES, P117 HOLDEN MJ, 1977, FISH POPULATION DYNA, P187 HUDSON E, 1996, REP WORKSH COLL WORL JACKSON JBC, 2001, SCIENCE, V293, P629 JENNINGS S, 1996, AMBIO, V25, P44 JENNINGS S, 1998, P ROY SOC LOND B BIO, V265, P333 JENNINGS S, 1999, CONSERV BIOL, V13, P1466 JENNINGS S, 1999, J ANIM ECOL, V68, P617 JENNINGS S, 2001, MAR ECOL-PROG SER, V213, P127 JOHANNES RE, 1998, TRENDS ECOL EVOL, V13, P243 JOHANNES RE, 2000, FISH FISH, V1, P257 KAISER MJ, 2002, FISH FISH, V3, P114 KAISER MJ, 2003, RESPONSIBLE FISHERIE, P197 KANDEL A, 1995, TECHNOMETRICS, V37, P276 KASABOV NK, 1996, FDN NEURAL NETWORKS KIRKWOOD GP, 1994, LARGE SCALE ECOLOGY, P199 KOSKO B, 1992, P IEEE INT C FUZZ SY, P1153 LAVIOLETTE M, 1995, TECHNOMETRICS, V37, P249 MACKINSON S, 1997, FISH RES, V31, P11 MACKINSON S, 1998, REV FISH BIOL FISHER, V8, P481 MACKINSON S, 1999, CAN J FISH AQUAT SCI, V56, P686 MACKINSON S, 2000, ECOL MODEL, V126, P155 MATSUDA H, 1998, RES POPUL ECOL, V40, P271 MCDOWALL RM, 1992, AQUAT CONSERV, V2, P351 MORATO T, 2004, SEAMOUNTS BIODIVERSI, V12, P51 MUSICK JA, 1999, FISHERIES, V24, P6 MUSICK JA, 2000, FISHERIES, V25, P6 MYERS RA, 1999, CAN J FISH AQUAT SCI, V56, P2404 PAULY D, 1980, J CONS INT EXPLOR ME, V39, P175 PAULY D, 2002, NATURE, V418, P689 PITCHER TJ, 1995, SCI MAR, V59, P295 PITCHER TJ, 1997, P 2 WORLD FISH C, V2, P143 PITCHER TJ, 1998, REV FISH BIOL FISHER, V8, P367 PITCHER TJ, 2001, ECOL APPL, V11, P601 PITCHER TJ, 2001, ENCY OCEAN SCI, P975 PRATT HL, 1990, ELASMOBRANCHS LIVING, V90, P97 REGAN HM, 2000, BIOL CONSERV, V92, P101 REGAN HM, 2000, CONSERV BIOL, V14, P1197 REYNOLDS JD, 2001, CONSERVATION EXPLOIT, P147 ROBERTS CM, 1999, TRENDS ECOL EVOL, V14, P241 ROFF DA, 1984, CAN J FISH AQUAT SCI, V41, P989 ROWE S, 2003, TRENDS ECOL EVOL, V18, P567 RUSS GR, 1998, CORAL REEFS, V17, P399 SADOVY Y, IN PRESS CORAL REEF SADOVY Y, 2001, J FISH BIOL A, V59, P90 SADOVY Y, 2003, FISH FISH, V4, P86 SILVESTRE G, 1997, WORKSH SUST EXPL TRO, P8 SMITH SE, 1998, MAR FRESHWATER RES, V49, P663 SOKAL RR, 1995, BIOMETRY STEVENS JD, 1999, AM FISH S S, V23, P11 STEVENS JD, 2000, ICES J MAR SCI, V57, P476 TODD CR, 1998, CONSERV BIOL, V12, P966 WALKER PA, 1998, ICES J MAR SCI, V55, P392 WATLING L, 1998, CONSERV BIOL, V12, P1180 WOLFF WJ, 2000, BIOL CONSERV, V95, P209 ZADEH LA, 1965, INFORM CONTR, V8, P338 ZADEH LA, 1995, TECHNOMETRICS, V37, P271 NR 82 TC 6 J9 BIOL CONSERV BP 97 EP 111 PY 2005 PD JUL VL 124 IS 1 GA 916ZX UT ISI:000228426700009 ER PT J AU Seixas, C Troutt, E TI Socio-economic and ecological feedpacks in lagoon fisheries: Management principles for a co-evolutionary setting SO INTERCIENCIA LA English DT Article C1 Univ Manitoba, Dept Econ, Winnipeg, MB R3T 5V5, Canada. Univ Wisconsin, Madison, WI 53706 USA. RP Seixas, C, Univ Manitoba, Dept Econ, Winnipeg, MB R3T 5V5, Canada. AB This paper reviews the major socio-economic evolutionary events in a network of communities around a coastal lagoon. Concepts from complex systems analysis and ecological economics are used to analyze the impacts of the evolutionary events on both the lagoon's goods and services and stakeholders' well-being, bringing to light the management strengths and shortcomings of the fishery system, and suggesting an appropriate approach to managing such a system for ecosystem sustainability based on the Lisbon principles. CR ABDALLAH PR, 1998, THESIS U SAO PAULO P AGRAWAL A, 1997, DEV CHANGE, V28, P436 ANDREATTA ER, 1993, RELATORIO FINAL PROJ ANDREATTA ER, 1996, RELATORIO FINAL REPO ANTUNES P, 1999, ECOL ECON, V31, P215 BERKHOUT F, 2003, NEGOTIATING ENV CHAN, P1 COSTANZA R, 1993, BIOSCIENCE, V43, P545 COSTANZA R, 1997, INTRO ECOLOGICAL EC COSTANZA R, 1998, SCIENCE, V281, P198 COSTANZA R, 1999, ECOL ECON, V31, P171 DALY HE, 1977, STEADY STATE EC FOLKE C, 2002, ICSU SERIES SCI SUST, V3 GUNDERSON LH, 1995, BARRIERS BRIDGES REN, V1, P1 HOLLING CS, 1978, ADAPTIVE ENV ASSESSM HOLLING CS, 1986, SUSTAINABLE DEV BIOS, V1, P1 JASANOFF S, 1997, SCIENCE, V278, P2066 JOHNSON B, 2000, RETHINKING SUSTAINAB, P33 KATES RW, 2001, SCIENCE, V292, P641 KAUFFMAN S, 1993, ORIGINS ORDER LEVIN SA, 1999, FRAGILE DOMINION COM MCCAY BJ, 1998, HUM ORGAN, V57, P21 SEIXAS C, 2003, ECOL ECON, V46, P399 SEIXAS CS, 2002, THESIS U MANITOBA WI SEIXAS CS, 2004, CHALLENGING COASTS T, P180 SEIXAS CS, 2004, MILL EC ASS C AL EG WALTERS CJ, 1986, ADAPTIVE MANAGEMENT NR 26 TC 0 J9 INTERCIENCIA BP 362 EP + PY 2004 PD JUL VL 29 IS 7 GA 847KH UT ISI:000223390600004 ER PT J AU Musah, AF TI Privatization of security, arms proliferation and the process of state collapse in Africa SO DEVELOPMENT AND CHANGE LA English DT Article AB Most so-called 'collapsed states' in Africa are extreme cases of the complex and contradictory processes of state-making and unmaking which are unfolding in the continent. Beneath the veneer of sovereignty, virtually all these nations started their independent existence in the 1960s as shell states. Since then, they have either followed the path of self-destruction (state collapse) or have sought to fill the shell with institutional content (state-making). Private military intervention is one of the key external factors undermining the state-building project. Whether in its traditional 'soldier of fortune' form, or in its current corporate cloak, the privatization of security injects an inflammatory element into the governance process in weak states. Since independence, the populations of Africa have been subjected to structural violence that has highlighted force and de-emphasized human security as the cornerstone of governance. Civil society reactions to this have become more pronounced since the end of the Cold War, and have led to negative reconfiguration in weak states that are least equipped to manage the new challenges. The privatization of security impedes efforts to fashion accountable governance, and entrenches the culture of violence. Private military companies, their partner arms brokers and local warlords are the principal actors in illegitimate resource appropriation - a major cause of ongoing asymmetric warfare in Africa - and the proliferation of weapons an incendiary element in these wars. CR 1998, AFP REPORT 1999, HERALD GUARDIAN 0327 1999, REUTERS 0219 2000, MAIL GUARDIAN 0128 2000, PUNCH AUG 2000, SOIR 0830 2000, SUNDAY TIMES 1119 2001, MONITOR 0418 2001, MONITOR 0419 ABEL P, 2000, RUNNING GUNS GLOBAL, P81 AVEBURY, 2000, COMMUNICATION 1005 BANGURA U, 2000, STANDARD TIMES 1124 BROOKS D, 2001, AFRICA ANAL APR CLAPHAM C, 1999, PRIVATISATION SECURI, P23 FAHNBULLEH F, 1994, COMMUNICATION 0701 HARDING J, 1996, RADIO NATL 0804 HOWE H, 2000, CONFLICT TRENDS JUN HUTCHFUL E, 2000, MERCENARIES AFRICAN, P210 MINERS NJ, 1971, NIGERIAN ARMY 1956 1 MOCKLER A, 1970, MERCENARIES MUSAH A, 1999, OVER BARREL LIGHT WE, P109 MUSAH A, 2000, DEMOCRACY DEV, V2, P15 MUSAH AF, 2000, MERCENARIES AFRICAN, P76 NOSSAL KR, 1998, CIVIL WARS, V1, P31 OBRIEN KL, 2000, MERCENARIES AFRICAN, P43 OSAGHAE EE, 1998, CRIPPLED GIANT NIGER PECH K, 2000, MERCENARIES AFRICAN, P117 PELEMAN J, 2000, MERCENARIES AFRICAN, P155 PRINCELOO K, ASS PRESS 0228 PRKIC F, 1997, 25 ECPR WORKSH 3 DEM RENOU X, 2000, UNPUB MAJOR OBSTACLE SHAW TM, 2000, INT C SOLD BUS MIL E SHEARER D, 1998, ADELPHI PAPER, V316 TAMBARYOH D, 2002, OPINION CONCORD 0125 TILLY C, 1985, BRINGING STATE BACK, P169 ULBRICH J, 2001, ASS PRESS 0523 WOOD B, 1999, ARMS FIXERS CONTROLL NR 37 TC 1 J9 DEVELOP CHANGE BP 911 EP 933 PY 2002 PD NOV VL 33 IS 5 GA 626YL UT ISI:000179901300008 ER PT J AU Kundzewicz, ZW Schellnhuber, HJ TI Floods in the IPCC TAR perspective SO NATURAL HAZARDS LA English DT Article C1 Polish Acad Sci, Res Ctr Agr & Forest Environm, Poznan, Poland. Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res PIK, D-14412 Potsdam, Germany. RP Kundzewicz, ZW, Polish Acad Sci, Res Ctr Agr & Forest Environm, Poznan, Poland. AB Recent floods have become more abundant and more destructive than ever in many regions of the globe. Destructive floods observed in the 1990s all over the world have led to record-high material damage, with total losses exceeding one billion US dollars in each of two dozen events. The immediate question emerges as to the extent to which a sensible rise in flood hazard and vulnerability can be linked to climate variability and change. Links between climate change and floods have found extensive coverage in the Third Assessment Report ( TAR) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Since the material on floods is scattered over many places of two large volumes of the TAR, the present contribution - a guided tour to floods in the IPCC TAR - may help a reader notice the different angles from which floods were considered in the IPCC report. As the water-holding capacity of the atmosphere grows with temperature, the potential for intensive precipitation also increases. Higher and more intense precipitation has been already observed and this trend is expected to increase in the future, warmer world. This is a sufficient condition for flood hazard to increase. Yet there are also other, non-climatic, factors exacerbating flood hazard. According to the IPCC TAR, the analysis of extreme events in both observations and coupled models is underdeveloped. It is interesting that the perception of floods in different parts of the TAR is largely different. Large uncertainty is emphasized in the parts dealing with the science of climate change, but in the impact chapters, referring to sectors and regions, growth in flood risk is taken for granted. Floods have been identified on short lists of key regional concerns. CR *IFRCRCS, 1997, WORLD DIS REP 1997 *MUN RE, 1997, FLOOD INS ANDRADE RFS, 1998, PHYSICA A, V254, P257 ARNELL NW, 1999, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHA S, V9, S31 BERZ G, 2001, CLIMATE 21 CENTURY C, P392 CHIEW FHS, 1993, INT J CLIMATOL, V13, P643 HOUGHTON JT, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 KUNDZEWICZ ZW, 1999, HYDROLOG SCI J, V44, P417 KUNDZEWICZ ZW, 1999, HYDROLOG SCI J, V44, P855 KUNDZEWICZ ZW, 2000, WATER INT, V25, P66 KUNDZEWICZ ZW, 2000, WCDMP45 WORLD CLIM P KUNDZEWICZ ZW, 2001, HYDROLOG SCI J, V46, P883 KUNDZEWICZ ZW, 2002, WATER INT, V27, P3 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 MILLY PCD, 2002, NATURE, V415, P514 PALMER TN, 2002, NATURE, V415, P512 PARRY ML, 2000, ASSESSMENT POTENTIAL SCHNUR R, 2002, NATURE, V415, P483 NR 18 TC 0 J9 NATURAL HAZARDS BP 111 EP 128 PY 2004 PD JAN VL 31 IS 1 GA 804MV UT ISI:000220303700006 ER PT J AU Poumadere, M Mays, C Le Mer, S Blong, R TI The 2003 heat wave in France: Dangerous climate change here and now SO RISK ANALYSIS LA English DT Article C1 Inst Symlog, F-75005 Paris, France. Ecole Normale Super, Cachan, France. Macquarie Univ, Sydney, NSW 2109, Australia. RP Poumadere, M, Inst Symlog, 262 Rue St Jacques, F-75005 Paris, France. AB In an analysis of the French episode of heat wave in 2003, this article highlights how heat wave dangers result from the intricate association of natural and social factors. Unusually high temperatures, as well as socioeconomic vulnerability, along with social attenuation of hazards, in a general context where the anthropogenic contribution to climate change is becoming more plausible, led to an excess of 14,947 deaths in France, between August 4 and 18, 2003. The greatest increase in mortality was due to causes directly attributable to heat: dehydration, hyperthermia, heat stroke. In addition to age and gender, combinatorial factors included preexisting disease, medication, urban residence, isolation, poverty, and, probably, air pollution. Although diversely impacted or reported, many parts of Europe suffered human and other losses, such as farming and forestry through drought and fires. Summer 2003 was the hottest in Europe since 1500, very likely due in part to anthropogenic climate change. The French experience confirms research establishing that heat waves are a major mortal risk, number one among so-called natural hazards in postindustrial societies. Yet France had no policy in place, as if dangerous climate were restricted to a distant or uncertain future of climate change, or to preindustrial countries. We analyze the heat wave's profile as a strongly attenuated risk in the French context, as well as the causes and the effects of its sudden shift into amplification. Research and preparedness needs are highlighted. 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Projecting changes in cropland and grassland SO AGRICULTURE ECOSYSTEMS & ENVIRONMENT LA English DT Article C1 Catholic Univ Louvain, Dept Geog, Louvain, Belgium. Univ Wageningen & Res Ctr, Dept Plant Sci, Grp Plant Prod Syst, NL-6700 AK Wageningen, Netherlands. Univ Wageningen & Res Ctr, Dept Environm Sci, Grp Environm Syst Anal, NL-6700 HB Wageningen, Netherlands. Finnish Environm Inst, SYKE, FIN-00251 Helsinki, Finland. RP Rounsevell, MDA, Catholic Univ Louvain, Dept Geog, Pl Pasteur 3, Louvain, Belgium. AB This paper presents the development of quantitative, spatially explicit and alternative scenarios of future agricultural land use in Europe (the 15 European Union member states, Norway and Switzerland). The scenarios were constructed to support analyses of the vulnerability of ecosystem services, but the approach also provides an exploration of how agricultural land use might respond to a range of future environmental change drivers, including climate and socio-economic change. The baseline year was 2000 and the scenarios were constructed for 3 years (2020, 2050 and 2080) at a spatial resolution of 10 min latitude and longitude. Time slices were defined for the climate scenarios as the 10 years before 2020, 2050 and 2080. The scenarios were based on an interpretation of the four storylines of the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) using a simple supply/demand model of agricultural area quantities at the European scale and the disaggregation of these quantities using scenario-specific, spatial allocation rules. The scenarios demonstrate the importance of assumptions about technological development for future agricultural land use in Europe. If technology continues to progress at current rates then the area of agricultural land would need to decline substantially. Such declines will not occur if there is a correspondingly large increase in the demand for agricultural goods, or if political decisions are taken either to reduce crop productivity through policies that encourage extensification or to accept widespread overproduction. For the set of parameters assumed here, cropland and grassland areas (for the production of food and fibre) decline by as much as 50% of current areas for some scenarios. Such declines in production areas would result in large parts of Europe becoming surplus to the requirement of food and fibre production. Although it is difficult to anticipate how this land would be used in the future, it seems that continued urban expansion, recreational areas (such as for horse riding) and forest land use would all be likely to take up at least some of the surplus. Furthermore, whilst the substitution of food production by energy production was considered in these scenarios, surplus land would provide further opportunities for the cultivation of bioenergy crops. (c) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 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RP Brunnee, J, UNIV BRITISH COLUMBIA,FAC LAW,VANCOUVER,BC V5Z 1M9,CANADA. AB This article evaluates existing freshwater regimes and offers suggestions for the elaboration of future regimes that can promote environmental security. The authors argue that ecosystem-oriented principles are essential to shaping effective freshwater regimes as they evolve along a continuum from dialogue and sharing of information, to more defined frameworks of cooperation, to binding legal norms. They suggest that this process of regime formation and consolidation will further benefit from an emphasis on implementation and dispute avoidance, rather than on enforcement and dispute settlement. 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RP Fisher, CT, Kent State Univ, Dept Anthropol, 226 Lowry Hall, Kent, OH 44240 USA. AB Land degradation is frequently cited as a factor in the collapse of ancient complex societies. Implicit in these tales of ecological suicide is the assumption that land degradation is an ecological rather than a social problem. Here, I discuss how land degradation can be reconceptualized as a social-environmental dialectic. I then discuss the implications of this perspective using evidence from a recent landscape project exploring diachronic relationships between environmental and social transformations in the development of the Precolumbian Tarascan (Purepecha) empire, centered in the Lake Patzcuaro Basin, Mexico. Project findings challenge common conceptions regarding the impact of agriculture, urbanism, and state collapse on ancient landscapes, as well as the dating of the most serious episodes of degradation. 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Cornell Univ, Div Nutr Sci, Ithaca, NY 14853 USA. Acad Educ Dev, FANTA Project, Washington, DC 20009 USA. RP Webb, P, Tufts Univ, Gerald J & Dorothy R Friedman Sch Nutr Sci & Poli, Boston, MA 02111 USA. AB Food insecurity is a daily reality for hundreds of millions of people around the world. Although its most extreme manifestations are often obvious, many other households facing constraints in their access to food are less identifiable. Operational agencies lack a method for differentiating households at varying degrees of food insecurity in order to target and evaluate their interventions. This chapter provides an overview of a set of papers associated with a research initiative that seeks to identify more precise, yet simple, measures of household food insecurity. The overview highlights three main conceptual developments associated with practical approaches to measuring constraints in access to food: 1) a shift from using measures of food availability and utilization to measuring "inadequate access"; 2) a shift from a focus on objective to subjective measures; and 3) a growing emphasis on fundamental measurement as opposed to reliance on distal, proxy measures. Further research is needed regarding 1) how well measures of household food insecurity designed for chronically food-insecure contexts capture the processes leading to, and experience of, acute food insecurity, 2) the impact of short-term shocks, such as major floods or earthquake, on household behaviors that determine responses to food security questions, 3) better measurement of the interaction between severity and frequency of household food insecurity behaviors, and 4) the determination of whether an individual's response to survey questions can be representative of the food insecurity experiences of all members of the household. 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Univ Surrey, Guildford GU2 5XH, Surrey, England. RP Farrell, BH, Univ Calif Santa Cruz, Dept Environm Studies, Santa Cruz, CA 95064 USA. AB This article argues that in order to facilitate a more effective transition to sustainability, tourism researchers need to keep abreast of transformations occurring in related fields, especially ecosystem ecology, ecological economics, global change science, and complexity theory. New knowledge from these spheres relating to complex adaptive systems, a necessary retreat from reductionism, extensive integration of human and natural systems, new interpretations of sustainability, and the emergence of sustainability science is of great relevance to contemporary tourism study. The article provides an introduction to the potentially extensive application of this knowledge to tourism and concludes by suggesting a reconceptualization of the field of study to accommodate it. 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COMPLEXITY NR 127 TC 0 J9 ANN TOURISM RES BP 274 EP 295 PY 2004 PD APR VL 31 IS 2 GA 822OR UT ISI:000221550000002 ER PT J AU Smithers, J Smit, B TI Human adaptation to climatic variability and change SO GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS LA English DT Article C1 UNIV GUELPH,DEPT GEOG,GUELPH,ON N1G 2W1,CANADA. RP Smithers, J, UNIV GUELPH,ECOSYST HLTH PROGRAM,FAC ENVIRONM SCI,GUELPH,ON N1G 2W1,CANADA. AB Recent developments in both the policy arena and the climate impacts research community point to a growing interest in human adaptation to climatic variability and change. The importance of adaptation In the climate change question is affirmed in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Technical Guidelines for Assessing impacts and Adaptations and the IPCC's more recent Second Assessment Report. Yet, the nature and processes of human adaptation to climate are poorly understood and rarely investigated directly. Most often, human responses of one form or another are simply assumed in impacts research. Analyses that do address adaptation use a variety of interpretations and perspectives resulting in an incomplete, and at inconsistent, understanding of adaptation to environmental variations. This paper reviews and synthesizes perspectives from an eclectic body or scholarship to develop a framework for characterizing and understanding human adaptation to climatic variability and change. The framework recognizes the characteristics of climatic events, the ecological properties of systems which mediate effects, and the distinctions which are possible among different types of adaptation. A classification scheme is proposed for differentiating adaptation strategies. 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AB It would appear from the proportion of South African forests in protected areas that the habitats of vertebrate species are well protected. However, this simple figure is misleading. Firstly, the small total area of remaining forests (3000 km(2)) alters the vulnerability of the fauna. Secondly, a large proportion of the threatened fauna is restricted to forests and many are found in regions subject to heavy human exploitation. The apparent complacency regarding forest vertebrate conservation in South Africa requires re-evaluation in the light of this new information. The vulnerability of fauna must be carefully evaluated before management recommendations can be made, particularly for threatened species. 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Stockholm Environm Inst, Oxford OX2 7DL, England. Int Water Management Inst, Colombo, Sri Lanka. Univ E Anglia, Sch Environm Sci, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. Univ E Anglia, Tyndall Ctr Climate Change Res, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. RP Klein, RJT, Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res, POB 601203, D-14412 Potsdam, Germany. AB The potential for developing synergies between climate change mitigation and adaptation has become a recent focus of both climate research and policy. Presumably the interest in synergies springs from the appeal of creating win-win situations by implementing a single climate policy option. However, institutional complexity, insufficient opportunities and uncertainty surrounding their efficiency and effectiveness present major challenges to the widespread development of synergies. There are also increasing calls for research to define the optimal mix of mitigation and adaptation. These calls are based on the misguided assumption that there is one single optimal mix of adaptation and mitigation options for all possible scenarios of climate and socio-economic change, notwithstanding uncertainty and irrespective of the diversity of values and preferences in society. In the face of current uncertainty, research is needed to provide guidance on how to develop a socially and economically justifiable mix of mitigation, adaptation and development policy, as well as on which elements would be part of such a mix. Moreover, research is needed to establish the conditions under which the process of mainstrearning can be most effective. Rather than actually developing and implementing specific mitigation and adaptation options, the objective of climate policy should be to facilitate such development and implementation as part of sectoral policies. Finally, analysis needs to focus on the optimal use and expected effectiveness of financial instruments, taking into account the mutual effects between these instruments on the one hand, and national and international sectoral investments and official development assistance on the other. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 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RP Spittlehouse, DL, BC Minist Forest, Res Branch, POB 9519,Stn Prov Govt, Victoria, BC V8W 9C2, Canada. AB Future climate change will affect society's ability to use forest resources. We take account of climate in forest management and this will help us adapt to the effects of climate change on forests. However, society will have to adjust to how forests adapt by changing expectations for the use of forest resources because management can only influence the timing and direction of forest adaptation at selected locations. There will be benefits as well as loses and an important component of adaptation will be balancing values. Adaptation options to respond to impacts on the timber supply in Canada for the next 50 to 100 years are limited mainly to forest protection and wood utilisation because these forests are already in the ground. Adaptation through reforestation will focus on commercial tree species. It is important to start developing adaptation strategies now. These include assessing forest vulnerability to climate change, revising expectations of forest use, determining research and educational needs, development of forest policies to facilitate adaptation, and determining when to implement responses. Government agencies should take the lead in creating an environment to foster adaptation in forestry and in developing the necessary information required to respond. 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Harvard Univ, Sch Med, Ctr Hlth & Global Environm, Boston, MA USA. Resources Future Inc, Washington, DC USA. Nat Resources Def Council, Washington, DC USA. US Geol Survey, San Diego, CA USA. RP Levin, RB, Harvard Univ, Sch Publ Hlth, Environm Epidemiol Program, 665 Huntington Ave, Boston, MA 02115 USA. AB The access of almost all 270 million U.S. residents to reliable, safe drinking water distinguishes the United States in the twentieth century from that of the nineteenth century. The United States is a relatively water-abundant country with moderate population growth; nonetheless, current trends are sufficient to strain water resources over time, especially on a regional basis. We have examined the areas of public water infrastructure, global climate effects, waterborne disease (including emerging and resurging pathogens), land use, groundwater, surface water, and the U.S. regulatory history and its horizon. 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ER PT J AU Arnell, NW Tompkins, EL Adger, WN TI Eliciting information from experts on the likelihood of rapid climate change SO RISK ANALYSIS LA English DT Article C1 Univ Southampton, Sch Geog, Tyndall Ctr Climate Change Res, Southampton SO17 1BJ, Hants, England. Univ E Anglia, Sch Environm Sci, Tyndall Ctr Climate Change Res, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. RP Arnell, NW, Univ Southampton, Sch Geog, Tyndall Ctr Climate Change Res, Southampton SO17 1BJ, Hants, England. AB The threat of so-called rapid or abrupt climate change has generated considerable public interest because of its potentially significant impacts. The collapse of the North Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation or the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, for example, would have potentially catastrophic effects on temperatures and sea level, respectively. But how likely are such extreme climatic changes? Is it possible actually to estimate likelihoods? This article reviews the societal demand for the likelihoods of rapid or abrupt climate change, and different methods for estimating likelihoods: past experience, model simulation, or through the elicitation of expert judgments. The article describes a survey to estimate the likelihoods of two characterizations of rapid climate change, and explores the issues associated with such surveys and the value of information produced. The surveys were based on key scientists chosen for their expertise in the climate science of abrupt climate change. Most survey respondents ascribed low likelihoods to rapid climate change, due either to the collapse of the Thermohaline Circulation or increased positive feedbacks. In each case one assessment was an order of magnitude higher than the others. We explore a high rate of refusal to participate in this expert survey: many scientists prefer to rely on output from future climate model simulations. 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Texas A&M Univ, Dept Landscape Architecture & Urban Planning, Environm Planning & Sustainabil Res Unit, College Stn, TX 77843 USA. Texas A&M Univ, George Bush Sch Govt & Publ Serv, Inst Sci Technol & Publ Policy, College Stn, TX 77843 USA. RP Zahran, S, Colorado State Univ, Dept Sociol, B-258 Clark Bldg, Ft Collins, CO 80523 USA. AB Climate scientists note that the effects of climate change vary regionally. Citizen willingness to absorb the costs of adaptation and mitigation policies may correspond with these place-specific effects. Geographic information systems (GIS) analytic techniques are used to map and measure survey respondents' climate change risk at various levels of spatial resolution and precision. Spatial data are used to analyze multiple measures of climate change vulnerability along with demographic, attitudinal, and perception-based variables derived from a representative national survey of U. S. residents to predict variation in support for interventionist climate change policies. Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression results show that objective risk measures explain a modest amount of variation in our dependent variable. The effect of risk perception on climate policy support is far more robust. Of all variables examined, the extent to which citizens regard climate change as threatening to their material well-being drives support for costly climate change policies. 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CR *CAN ENV ATM ENV S, 1987, CHANG ATM C STAT *HUM DIM GLOB CHAN, 1987, PROSP *HUM DIM GLOB CHAN, 1988, PROSP *HUM DIM GLOB CHAN, 1989, IN PRESS TOK INT S H *INT GEOSPH BIOSPH, 1988, 4 REP *UN U, 1985, SCI PRACT COMPL *WORLD COMM ENV DE, 1987, OUR COMM FUT ABULABAN B, 1988, HUMAN SCI CONTRIBUTI ARTHUR WB, 1988, TECHNICAL CHANGE EC AYRES RU, 1988, ENV IMPLICATIONS THE BARKER E, 1947, SOCIAL CONTRACT BARNES B, 1974, SCI KNOWLEDGE SOCIOL BURTON I, 1987, ENVIRONMENT, V29 BURTON I, 1988, IFIAS RES SERIES, V4 CLARK N, 1987, LONGRUN EC DANZIN A, 1985, SCI PRAXIS COMPLEXIT GLEICK J, 1987, CHAOS MAKING NEW SCI KUHN TS, 1970, STRUCTURE SCI REVOLU MARLAND G, 1988, PROSPECT SOLVING CO2 PRIGOGINE I, 1980, BEING BECOMING PRIGOGINE I, 1984, ORDER OUT OF CHAOS ROLSTON H, 1988, ENV ETHICS SVEDIN U, 1988, SWEDISH PERSPECTIVES THOMAS D, 1979, NATURALISM SOCIAL SC TIMMERMAN P, 1981, ENV MONOGRAPH, V1, P1 TIMMERMAN P, 1986, SUSTAINABLE DEV BIOS TRENT J, 1984, GLOBAL CRISES AND SO WINCH P, 1958, IDEA SOCIAL SCI ITS NR 28 TC 2 J9 INT SOC SCI J BP 297 EP 313 PY 1989 PD AUG VL 41 IS 3 GA AR860 UT ISI:A1989AR86000002 ER PT J AU Steelman, TA Kunkel, GF TI Effective community responses to wildfire threats: Lessons from New Mexico SO SOCIETY & NATURAL RESOURCES LA English DT Article C1 N Carolina State Univ, Coll Nat Resources, Dept Forestry, Raleigh, NC 27695 USA. RP Steelman, TA, N Carolina State Univ, Coll Nat Resources, Dept Forestry, Campus Box 8008, Raleigh, NC 27695 USA. AB National policies to address the wildfire threat in the United States place emphasis on community responsiveness, but great uncertainty surrounds the scope and success of community response to wildfire threats and why some communities foster effective responses while others fail to do so. Two case studies of community responses to wildfire threats in New Mexico are explored. A decision process framework illustrates how an effective response can be defined. Findings indicate that an effective community response to wildfire means that a community works through all stages of the decision process with appropriate social and structural responses to its specific threat. 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Wageningen Univ, Disaster Res Ctr, NL-6700 EW Wageningen, Netherlands. RP Bankoff, G, Univ Auckland, Sch Asian Studies, Private Bag 92019, Auckland 1, New Zealand. AB Disasters seem destined to be major issues of academic enquiry in the new century if for no other reason than that they are inseparably linked to questions of environmental conservation, resource depletion and migration patterns in an increasingly globalised world. Unfortunately, inadequate attention has been directed at considering the historical roots of the discursive framework within which hazard is generally presented and how that might reflect particular cultural values to do with the way in which certain regions or zones of the world ave usually imagined This paper argues that tropicality, development and vulnerability form part of one and the same essentialising and generalising cultural discourse that denigrates large regions of world as disease-ridden, poverty-stricken and disaster-prone. 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RP Sturman, AP, Univ Canterbury, Dept Geog, Private Bag 4800, Christchurch 1, New Zealand. 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RP Haila, Y, Tampere Univ, Dept Reg Studies & Environm Policy, POB 607, FIN-33101 Tampere, Finland. AB I chart ways in which ecology could improve its performance in assessing the humanity-nature relationship. The life of humans, similar to all biological organisms, depends on utilization of their environment which is changed as a result. To evaluate the consequences, a broad range of issues needs to be addressed ranging from the historical dynamics of cultural development to specific idiosynchratic features of particular environmental issues. One should avoid nature-culture dualism both in theoretical thinking and practical research. A typical form of such dualism in ecologically informed environmentalism is an assumption that productivity of socioeconomic systems vs natural systems is a zero-sum game; this assumption is unfounded. Ecology should take the ecological conditions of human existence seriously and make judgements on the relationship of people with their natural environment in various historical situations in a contextually sensitive way. I end by listing several types of positive contribution that ecology could give to societal discussion on the human environmental predicament; the most important challenge is to point out new possibilities even in situations which seem hopeless. 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RP Luers, AL, Union Concerned Sci, 2397 Shattuck Ave,Ste 203, Berkeley, CA 94704 USA. AB This paper introduces an analytical framework for evaluating the vulnerability of people and places to environmental and social forces. The framework represents the relative vulnerability of a variable of concern (e.g. such as agricultural yield) to a set of disturbing forces (e.g. climate change, market fluctuations) by a position on a three-dimensional analytical surface, where vulnerability is defined as a function of sensitivity, exposure, and the state relative to a threshold of damage. The surface is presented as a tool to help identify relative vulnerability in order to prioritize actions and assess the vulnerability implications of management and policy decisions. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *FAO, 1997, FAOSTAT MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 ADGER WN, 1999, MITIG ADAPT STRAT GL, V4, P253 ADGER WN, 2001, LIVING ENV CHANGE SO BLAIKIE PM, 1994, RISK NATURAL HAZARDS, V1, P1 BOHLE HG, 2001, IHDP UPDATE, V2 BOHLE HG, 1994, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V4, P37 BRIGUGLIO L, 1995, WORLD DEV, V23, P1615 CARPENTER SR, 2001, ECOSYSTEMS, V4, P765 CARPENTER SR, 1999, ECOL APPL, V9, P751 CHAMBERS R, 1989, IDS B, V20, P1 CLARK WC, 2000, 200012 BCSIA HARV U CUTTER SL, 2000, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V90, P713 DOWNING TE, 1991, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V1, P365 DOWNING TE, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE VULNE FOLKE C, 2002, ICSU SERIES SUSTAINA KALY A, 2002, DEV B, V58 KASPERSON JX, 2003, HUMAN DIMENSIONS GLO KELLY PM, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V47, P325 LEICHENKO RM, 2002, MITIGATION ADAPTATIO, V7, P1 LOBELL DB, 2002, AGR FOREST METEOROL, V114, P31 LOBELL DB, 2003, AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON, V114, P31 LUERS AL, 2003, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V13, P255 MITCHELL JK, 1989, GEOGR REV, V79, P391 MOSS RH, 2002, UNPUB VULNERABILITY NAYLOR RL, 2001, 0101 CIMMYT OBRIEN KL, 2000, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V10, P221 PETERSON GD, 2002, CONSERVATION ECOLOGY, V6 POLSKY C, 2003, ASSESSIG VULNERABILI RIBOT JC, 1995, GEOJOURNAL, V35, P119 SCHEFFER M, 2001, NATURE, V413, P591 SCHIMMELPFENNIG D, 1999, GLOBAL ENV CHANGE AG SMITH B, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P223 STEPHEN L, 2001, DISASTERS, V25, P113 TURNER BL, 2003, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V100, P8074 TURNER BL, 2003, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V100, P8080 WATTS MJ, 1993, PROG HUM GEOG, V17, P43 NR 37 TC 4 J9 GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANGE BP 214 EP 223 PY 2005 PD OCT VL 15 IS 3 GA 960JC UT ISI:000231585500005 ER PT J AU Ali, A TI Vulnerability of Bangladesh to climate change and sea level rise through tropical cyclones and storm surges SO WATER AIR AND SOIL POLLUTION LA English DT Article RP Ali, A, SPARRSO,DHAKA,BANGLADESH. AB Bangladesh is frequently visited by natural disasters such as tropical cyclones, storm surges, floods, droughts, tornadoes and ''nonvesters.'' Of these, tropical cyclones originating in the Bay of Bengal and associated storm surges are the most disastrous. That are various reasons for the disastrous effects of cyclones and storm surges in Bangladesh. Superimposed on these disastrous effects, climate change and any consequent sea level rise are likely to add fuel to the lire Arise in temperature is likely to change cyclone activity: cyclone intensity, if not cyclone frequency, may increase. As a result, storm surges may also increase substantially. Sea level rise, an increase in cyclone intensity, and consequent increases in storm surge heights will have disastrous effects on a deltaic country like Bangladesh, which is not much above the mean sea level. This paper examines the climatology of cyclones in the Bay of Bengal for the last 110 years and trends in cyclone frequency and intensity. The phenomenon of storm surges in the Bay of Bengal is examined along with the primary reasons for the severity of storm surges in Bangladesh. The paper discusses both qualitatively and quantitatively the impacts of rises in temperature on tropical cyclone intensity in Bangladesh. With the use of a mathematical model developed for the simulation of storm surges along the Bangladesh coast, various scenarios of storm surges are developed. Using lower and upper bounds of sea surface temperature rise of 2 and 4 degrees C and of sea level rise of 0.3 and 1.0 m (according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change standard), the model simulates the maximum possible surges that are likely to occur under these conditions. 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RP di Lernia, S, Univ Roma La Sapienza, Fac Hlth Sci, Dept Archaeol Sci, Via Palestro 63, I-00185 Rome, Italy. AB Abrupt climatic changes in marginal areas, such as the central Sahara in the Early and Middle Holocene were among the major environmental constraints on prehistoric human groups. Social responses to these events were different, with different paths and outcomes. The spread of a 'cattle cult'-animals buried in 'megalithic' stone structures-in the Sahara at the end of the 7th millennium BP (ca. 6400-6000 yr BP) is seen here as a collective ritual that emerged, within Saharan pastoral societies, to face uncertain climate and socially relate to 'superhuman' entities. The type of rite-slaughtering of precious domestic livestock-reveals a shared identity in coping with catastrophic episodes-i.e., abrupt droughts. The spread of this 'cult' over large parts of present day Sahara is interpreted as the result of rapid movements of nomadic groups in search of pasture and water. Dramatic climatic deterioration at 5000 yr BP is one of the causes of a further major social shift in the rituals archaeologically detected by stone structures: these monuments become human burials, underlining a shift from social to individual identity, as mirrored in the funerary traditions of later pastoral groups. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd and INQUA. All rights reserved. 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RP Fankhauser, S, GLOBAL ENVIRONM FACIL SECRETARIAT,PRINCE,1818 H ST NW,WASHINGTON,DC 20433. AB Climate change is unique among the consequences of fossil fuel burning in its far reaching impact, both spatially and temporally. Earlier studies estimate the aggregated monetized damage due to climate change at 1.5 to 2.0% of world GDP (for 2 x CO2); the OECD would lose 1.0 to 1.5% of GDP; the developing countries 2.0 to 9.0%, according to these estimates. These figures are not comprehensive and highly uncertain. Newer studies increasingly emphasize adaptation, variability, extreme events, other (non-climate change) stress factors and the need for integrated assessment of damages. As a result, differences in impacts between regions and sectors have increased, the market impacts in developed countries tended to fall, and non-market impacts have become increasingly important. Marginal damages are more interesting from a policy point of view, Earlier estimates range from about US$5 to US$125 per tonne of carbon, with most estimates at the lower end of this range. These figures are based on polynomial functions in the level of climate change, but the rate of change may be equally important, as are the speed of adaptation, restoration and value adjustment. Furthermore, future vulnerability to climate change will be different from current vulnerability. On the whole, the market impacts fall (relatively) with economic growth while the non-market impacts rise (relatively) with growth. Copyright (C) 1996 Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. 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RP Gan, TY, Univ Alberta, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Edmonton, AB T6G 2G7, Canada. AB Past and the present studies show that the Canadian Prairies have become warmer and may have been drier in the last four to five decades but the drying trends are scattered and inconclusive. Statistical analysis shows that only the Winter and Fall (in some instances) precipitation is marginally related to ENSO and the PNA (Pacific North Americ) Index, and streamflow is highly variable. With uncertainties on the potential impact of climatic change and other uncertainties, several strategies are proposed to reduce the vulnerability of the Prairies to future droughts, where surface water is the primary water supply and agriculture is the major water user: (1) Continue implementing small-scale water resources projects and increase water storage through snow management, (2) increase integration between existing water resources systems, and (3) promote water conservation measures in agriculture practice, water pricing and water metering. 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RP Ali, SH, Univ Vermont, Sch Nat Resources, Burlington, VT 05405 USA. AB Environmental concerns have been framed in the planning profession as manifestations of resource scarcity, and hence a contributing factor in community conflicts. While mismanaged environmental scarcity can certainly lead to conflict, there is also considerable potential to stimulate cooperation on the basis of environmental scarcity itself. In the language of game theory, the latter outcome can be obtained by converting "dilemmas of common competing interests" to "dilemmas of common aversion." The cooperation which Would result from the use of environmental concerns as a binding element in conflicts among parties, is likely to catalyze a more "sustainable consensus"-a robust contract between erstwhile adversaries. Planners are in a unique position to glean the positive attributes of environmental indicators since they can bridge technical knowledge of environmental impact with air understanding of sociopolitical context at community consultation forums. This paper attempts to provide the theoretical basis for this approach and develop examples of how, such a strategy for conflict resolution may be implemented. 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RP Parris, TM, ISciences, Boston Off, LLC, 685 Ctr St,Suite 207, Boston, MA 02130 USA. AB Sustainable development has broad appeal and little specificity, but some combination of development and environment as well as equity is found in many attempts to describe it. However, proponents of sustainable development differ in their emphases on what is to be sustained, what is to be developed, how to link environment and development, and for how long a time. Despite the persistent definitional ambiguities associated with sustainable development, much work (over 500 efforts) has been devoted to developing quantitative indicators of sustainable development. The emphasis on sustainability indicators has multiple motivations that include decision making and management, advocacy, participation and consensus building, and research and analysis. We select a dozen prominent examples and use this review to highlight their similarities and differences in definition of sustainable development, motivation, process, and technical methods. We conclude that there are no indicator sets that are universally accepted, backed by compelling theory, rigorous data collection and analysis, and influential in policy. This is due to the ambiguity of sustainable development, the plurality of purpose in characterizing and measuring sustainable development, and the confusion of terminology, data, and methods of measurement. A major step in reducing such confusion would be the acceptance of distinctions in terminology, data, and methods. Toward this end, we propose an analytical framework that clearly distinguishes among goals, indicators, targets, trends, driving forces, and policy responses. We also highlight the need for continued research on scale, aggregation, critical limits, and thresholds. 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RP Wood, WB, US Dept State, Bur Intelligence & Res, Washington, DC 20520 USA. CR 2002, INT GEOGRAPHICAL UNI *GLOB ENV FAC, 2002, CHALL SUST ACT AG GL *NRC, 2002, DOWN EARTH GEOGR INF *UN, 1998, WORLD POP PROJ 2150 BLAIKIE, 1987, LAND DEGRADATION SOC BROWN L, 1991, PLACE MIGRATION DEV BURTON I, 1978, ENV HAZARD, V1, P1 CUTTER S, 2003, GEOGRAPHIC DIMENSION DALBY S, 2002, ENV SECURITY DANDO W, 1980, GEOGRAPHY FAMINE DOBSON JE, 2000, PHOTOGRAMM ENG REM S, V66, P849 FALCONER A, 2002, SYSTEM SURVIVAL GIS FORD RE, 1995, GEOJOURNAL, V35, P207 GLACKEN C, 1967, TRACES RHODIAN SHORE GROSSMAN M, 2002, AM FOR POL 21ST CENT HAUSMANN R, 2001, FOREIGN POLICY JAN, P45 HENNINGER N, 2002, POOR EXPERIENCES DEV JENSEN J, 2000, REMOTE SENSING ENV E KASPERSON RE, 1990, UNDERSTANDING GLOBAL KASPERSON RE, 1991, EVALUATION REV, V15, P149 KELMELIS J, 2001, GLOBAL MAPPING 0925, P23 LIVERMAN DM, 1990, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V80, P49 LONGLEY P, 1999, GEOGRAPHIC INFORMATI MATHER J, 1991, GLOBAL CHANGE GEOGRA ONSRUD H, 1995, SHARING GEOGRAPHIC I PELOSI N, 2001, VIOLENT ENV SAUER C, 1956, MANS ROLE CHANGING F, V1, P49 TURNER BL, 1990, EARTH TRANSFORMED HU TURNER BL, 1993, POPULATION GROWTH AG WILBANKS TJ, 1994, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V84, P541 WOOD WB, 1999, REORDERING WORLD GEO, P192 ZIMMERER K, 1998, NATURES GEOGRAPHY NE ZIMMERER KS, 1994, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V84, P108 NR 33 TC 0 J9 PROF GEOGR BP 53 EP 61 PY 2004 PD FEB VL 56 IS 1 GA 766EY UT ISI:000188354800008 ER PT J AU HEATHCOTE, RL TI DROUGHT MITIGATION IN AUSTRALIA - REDUCING THE LOSSES BUT NOT REMOVING THE HAZARD SO GREAT PLAINS QUARTERLY LA English DT Article RP HEATHCOTE, RL, FLINDERS UNIV S AUSTRALIA,GEOG,BEDFORD PK,SA 5042,AUSTRALIA. CR *AUSTR MAR SCI TEC, 1983, P C SIGN SO OSC NIN *S AUSTR ENG WAT S, 1978, S AUSTR RIV MURR SAL, V3 *SAGRIC, CHANG HOR *WORK PART DRYL SA, 1982, SALT NON IRR LAND AU ALLAN RJ, 1983, MON WEATHER REV, V111, P113 ANDERSON JR, 1979, REV MKTG AGR EC, V47, P147 ATKINSON G, 1984, J SOIL CONSERV SERV, V40, P4 BARDSLEY KL, 1983, AUSTR GEOGRAPHICAL S, V21, P129 BATES WR, 1976, AUSTR UNESCO SEMINAR, P217 BURTON I, 1978, ENV HAZARD, V1, P1 BUTZER K, 1983, QUATERNARY RES, V19, P279 CAMPBELL R, 1983, Q REV RURAL EC, V5, P254 CARR DJ, 1981, PEOPLE PLANTS AUSTR CHAPMAN TG, 1976, AUSTR UNESCO SEMINAR CORNISH EA, 1980, AGR RECORD, V7, P3 COUGHLAN M, 1983, P C SIGN SO OSC NIN, P187 DAVIDSON BR, 1969, AUSTR WET DRY PHYSIC DILLON JL, 1962, AUSTR J AGR EC, V6, P50 DOUGLAS J, 1980, S AUSTR SPACE DURY GH, 1983, AUSTR GEOGRAPHICAL S, V21, P69 FOLEY JC, 1957, COMMONWEALTH AUSTR B, V43 FREEBAIRN JW, 1978, AUSTR J AGR EC, V22, P194 GENTILLI J, 1971, WORLD SURVEY CLIMATO, V13, P35 GIBBS WJ, 1967, COMMONWEALTH AUSTR B, V48 GILL AM, 1983, P C SIGN SO OSC NIN, P161 HARTE AJ, 1984, J SOIL CONSERV SERV, V40, P94 HEATHCOTE RL, 1969, GEOGR REV, V59, P175 HEATHCOTE RL, 1977, AUSTR GEOGRAPHY, P252 HEATHCOTE RL, 1979, NATURAL HAZARDS AUST HEATHCOTE RL, 1980, PERCEPTION DESERTIFI, P60 HEATHCOTE RL, 1981, PEOPLE PLANTS AUSTR, P295 IDSO SB, 1984, J CLIMATOL, V4, P399 LLOYDDAVIES H, 1982, CURRENT AFFAIRS B, V58, P16 LOVETT JV, 1973, ENV EC SOCIAL SIGNIF MACDONALDHOLMES J, 1944, GEOGRAPHICAL BASIS G MACDONALDHOLMES J, 1960, GEOGRAPHICAL BASIS K MCBOYLE GR, 1980, WEATHER MODIFICATION MEINIG DW, 1962, MARGINS GOOD EARTH S MENZIES BJ, 1983, 7 S AUSTR DEP AGR TE MENZIES BJ, 1984, 8 S AUSTR DEP AGR TE MILLER GL, 1980, IRRIGATION WATER USE, P65 MULCAHY MJ, 1978, SEARCH, V9, P269 NICHOLLS N, 1983, P C SIGN SO OSC NIN, P45 NICHOLLS N, 1983, SEARCH, V14, P154 OLIVER J, 1984, 7 J COOK U CTR DIS S OLOUGHLIN EM, 1980, IRRIGATION WATER USE PEARMAN GI, 1980, CARBON DIOXIDE CLIMA PELS S, 1978, SEARCH, V9, P273 PITTOCK AB, 1978, CLIMATIC CHANGE VARI PITTOCK AB, 1980, CARBON DIOXIDE CLIMA, P197 PITTOCK AB, 1981, 1981 P SEM CROPP MAR PITTOCK AB, 1983, P C SIGN SO OSC NIN, P137 POWELL AA, 1963, 3 U SYDN DEP AGR EC POWELL JM, 1976, ENV MANAGEMENT AUSTR PROCTOR MLR, 1940, AUSTR GEOGRAPHER, V3, P16 SCOTT B, 1983, P C SIGN SO OSC NIN, P211 TISDALL AL, 1980, IRRIGATION WATER USE, P24 TUCKER GB, 1980, CARBON DIOXIDE CLIMA, P210 TUCKER GB, 1981, CO2 CLIMATE CONNECTI VANDIJK M, 1983, NEW SCI 0407, P30 WARING EJ, 1976, AUSTR UNESCO SEMINAR, P243 WHITE GF, 1974, NATURAL HAZARDS LOCA WILLIAMS M, 1974, MAKING S AUSTR LANDS WRIGLEY CW, 1981, AUSTR DICT BIOGRAPHY, V8, P471 YEOMANS PA, 1954, KEYLINE PLAN NR 65 TC 1 J9 GREAT PLAINS QUART BP 225 EP 237 PY 1986 PD SUM VL 6 IS 3 GA D5915 UT ISI:A1986D591500006 ER PT J AU Hollenstein, K TI Reconsidering the risk assessment concept: Standardizing the impact description as a building block for vulnerability assessment SO NATURAL HAZARDS AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES LA English DT Article C1 Swiss Fed Inst Technol, Zurich, Switzerland. RP Hollenstein, K, Swiss Fed Inst Technol, Zurich, Switzerland. AB Risk assessments for natural hazards are becoming more widely used and accepted. Using an extended definition of risk, it becomes obvious that performant procedures for vulnerability assessments are vital for the success of the risk concept. However, there are large gaps in knowledge about vulnerability. To alleviate the situation, a conceptual extension of the scope of existing and new models is suggested. The basis of the suggested concept is a stadardization of the output of hazard assessments. This is achieved by defining states of the target objects that depend on the impact and at the same time affect the object's performance characteristics. The possible state variables can be related to a limited set of impact descriptors termed generic impact description interface. The concept suggests that both hazard and vulnerability assessment models are developed according to the specification of this interface, thus facilitating modularized risk assessments. Potential problems related to the application of the concept include acceptance issues and the lacking accuracy of transformation of outputs of existing models. Potential applications and simple examples for adapting existing models are briefly discussed. CR *ATC, 1985, ATC13 *FEMA, 1999, HAZUS99 SR2 TECHN MA *IUGS, 1997, P INT WORKSH LANDSL, P3 BALENDRA T, 1999, EARTHQUAKE ENG STRUC, V28, P1361 COBURN A, 1992, EARTHQUAKE PROTECTIO DAMERON RA, 1996, WORLDWIDE ADV STRUCT DEAN ET, 1999, STRUCTURAL ENG 21 CE DOWRICK DJ, 1997, B NZ NATL SOC EARTHQ, V30, P227 HOLLENSTEIN K, 2002, MODELLIERUNG VULNERA PORTER KA, 2001, EARTHQ SPECTRA, V17, P291 NR 10 TC 1 J9 NAT HAZARDS EARTH SYST SCI BP 301 EP 307 PY 2005 VL 5 IS 3 GA 939WS UT ISI:000230104000001 ER PT J AU ADAMS, A TI FOOD INSECURITY IN MALI - EXPLORING THE ROLE OF THE MORAL ECONOMY SO IDS BULLETIN-INSTITUTE OF DEVELOPMENT STUDIES LA English DT Article RP ADAMS, A, HARVARD UNIV,CTR POPULAT & DEV STUDIES,CAMBRIDGE,MA 02138. AB This article challenges the view that the 'moral economy' has little relevance to the problems of food insecurity and famine in the contemporary context. Fieldwork in central Mali reveals an array of social practices and institutions which help farming households minimize the risk of food insecurity, and to cope with food crises when they occur. Based on the dual principles of mutual insurance and self interest, this 'moral economy' mediates a significant but not necessarily equitable flow of non-market transfers ranging from cereal gifts to village cereal bank loans and labour exchange. CR 1987, B SAP ADAMS AM, 1992, THESIS U LONDON BLEDSOE CH, 1988, SOC SCI MED, V27, P627 BRASSEUR G, 1961, B I FONDAMENTAL AFRI, V23, P607 BRATTON, 1987, DROUGHT HUNGER AFRIC, P323 CHAMBERS R, 1981, SEASONAL DIMENSIONS DIRKS R, 1980, CURR ANTHROPOL, V21, P21 EVANSPRITCHARD EE, 1940, NUER RELIGION FAFCHAMPS M, 1992, ECON DEV CULT CHANGE, V41, P147 FIRTH R, 1959, SOCIAL CHANGE TIKOPI FORTES M, 1936, AFRICA, V9, P237 FORTES M, 1949, WEB KINSHIP TALLENSI FULTON D, 1982, SOCIOECONOMIC STUDY GOODY J, 1958, DEV CYCLE DOMESTIC G HILL P, 1972, RURAL HAUSA VILLAGE KLAUS E, 1976, TRADITION PROGR AFRI LABOURET H, 1934, MANDING LEUR LANGUES LAUGHLIN CD, 1974, MAN, V9, P380 LEWIS J, 1979, THESIS YALE U LEWIS JV, 1981, AM ETHNOL, V8, P53 MAUSS M, 1950, GIFT FORM REASON EXC MCNAUGHTON PR, 1988, MANDE BLACKSMITHS KN MEILLASOUX C, 1981, MAIDENS MEAL MONEY C NORMAN D, 1977, AFRICAN ENV, V2, P3 PALES LC, 1954, ALIMENTATION AOF MIL PAQUES V, 1954, BAMBARA MONOGRAPHIES PLATTEAU JP, 1991, SOCIAL SECURITY DEV, P112 POLANYI K, 1944, GREAT TRANSFORMATION POSNER RA, 1980, J LAW ECON, V23, P1 RAYNAUT C, 1975, SECHERESSES FAMINES, P5 RICHARDS P, 1985, INDIGENOUS AGR REVOL RICHARDS P, 1986, COPING HUNGER HAZARD SAHLINS M, 1965, RELEVANCE MODELS SOC, P139 SCOTT JC, 1976, MORAL EC PEASANT SEN AK, 1981, POVERTY FAMINES ESSA, V1, P1 STAATZ JM, 1989, WORLD DEV, V17, P703 SWIFT J, 1989, IDS B, V20, P8 TORRY WI, 1987, DROUGHT HUNGER AFRIC, P323 TOULMIN C, 1986, IDS BULL-I DEV STUD, V17, P58 TRIMINGHAM JS, 1959, ISLAM W AFRICA TURNBULL CM, 1972, MOUNTAIN PEOPLE WATTS MJ, 1984, LIFE BEFORE DROUGHT, P124 WHITE BHF, 1980, RURAL HOUSEHOLD STUD, P3 NR 43 TC 11 J9 IDS BULL-INST DEVELOP STUD BP 41 EP 51 PY 1993 PD OCT VL 24 IS 4 GA LZ945 UT ISI:A1993LZ94500005 ER PT J AU Kundzewicz, ZW Kaczmarek, Z TI Coping with hydrological extremes SO WATER INTERNATIONAL LA English DT Article C1 Polish Acad Sci, Res Ctr Agr & Forest Environm, PL-60809 Poznan, Poland. RP Kundzewicz, ZW, Polish Acad Sci, Res Ctr Agr & Forest Environm, Bukowska 19, PL-60809 Poznan, Poland. AB Coping with hydrological extremes, floods, and droughts has been a major concern since the dawn of human civilization. Freshwater, a necessary condition of life and a raw material used in very high volumes in virtually every human activity, is becoming increasingly scarce. Water use has risen considerably in the last hundred years at a pace exceeding the population growth. Therefore, societies are increasingly vulnerable to droughts and water deficits. Although the 21st century is heralded as the age of water scarcity, flood losses continue to grow. Increasing global vulnerability results to a large extent from soaring anthropopressure: settlements in hazardous locations and adverse land use changes. Deforestation and urbanization lead to reduction of the storage volume and higher values of runoff coefficient. In more wealthy countries, it is the material flood losses that continue to grow, while the number of fatalities goes down. Advanced flood preparedness systems can save lives and reduce human suffering. In some regions of the world, long-term forecasts (e.g., ENSO) help improve the preparedness for hydrological extremes, both floods and droughts, and hopefully will even more so in the future. Scenarios for future climate indicate the possibility of sharpening the extremes and changes of their seasonality. For instance, in Western Scotland and Norway, an increase of winter floods has already been observed According to recent assessments, there is a growing risk of summer droughts in the Mediterranean region: less precipitation in summer and higher temperature will coincide, causing higher evapotranspiration and less runoff Fighting with floods and droughts has not been quite successful, Humans have to get used to the fact that extreme hydrological events are natural phenomena that will continue to occur. While doing one's best to improve the preparedness systems, it is necessary to learn to live with hydrological extremes. CR *ENV AG UK, 1998, ACT PLAN FLOOD DEF *GERM ADV COUNC GL, 1997, WORLD TRANS WAYS SUS *IFMRC, 1994, SHAR CHALL FLOODPL M *IMP CLIM CHANG HY, 1997, EV5VCT930293 WATSON RT, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, V1, P1 *NAT DIS SURV REP, 1994, GREAT FLOOD 1993 *RIBAMOD, 1998, P 1 WORKSH EUR COMM *UNCED, 1992, UN PUBL BERAN M, 1995, HYDROLOGY DISASTERS BROOKS H, 1992, ATAS B, V7, P19 CORDERY I, 1999, HYDROLOGICAL EXTREME GALLOWAY GE, 1998, P FIN WORKSH RIBAMOD, P235 GARDINER J, 1995, DEFENCE FLOODS FLOOD, P13 GLANTZ MH, 1977, B AM METEOROLOGICAL, V58, P150 GLANTZ MH, 1982, WATER RESOUR RES, V18, P3 GOPPERT H, 1998, HYDROLOG SCI J, V43, P215 HOWELL PP, 1994, NILE SHARING SCARCE HURRELL JW, 1997, CLIMATE CHANGE KACZMAREK Z, 1997, IMPACT CLIMATE CHANG, V1, P51 KACZMAREK Z, 1999, INT C GLOB CHANG CAT KULSHRESHTHA SN, 1993, RR9310 IIASA KUNDZEWICZ ZW, 1999, HYDROLOG SCI J, V44, P417 KUNDZEWICZ ZW, 1999, HYDROLOG SCI J, V44, P559 KUNDZEWICZ ZW, 1999, HYDROLOG SCI J, V44, P855 MUNICH R, 1997, FLOODING INSURANCE SEHMI NS, 1997, P S HELF 5 IAHS SCI SHOWSTACK R, 1999, EOS T AM GEOPHYS UN, V80, P365 STAHL K, 1999, HYDROLOG SCI J, V44, P467 TAKEUCHI K, 1998, IAHS PUBL, V251 THOMAS FH, 1995, DEFENCE FLOODS FLOOD, P257 WHETTON PH, 1993, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V25, P289 WILLIAMS PB, 1994, CIVIL ENG MAY, P51 NR 32 TC 6 J9 WATER INT BP 66 EP 75 PY 2000 PD MAR VL 25 IS 1 GA 295VE UT ISI:000085987900007 ER PT J AU Batjargal, Z Dulam, J Chung, YS TI Dust storms are an indication of an unhealthy environment in East Asia SO ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING AND ASSESSMENT LA English DT Article C1 Korea China Ctr Atmospher Res, Chonju 363891, South Korea. Extraordinary Plenipotentiary Ambassador Mongolia, Tokyo, Japan. Inst Meteorol & Hydrol, Ulaanbaatar 46, Mongol Peo Rep. RP Chung, YS, Korea China Ctr Atmospher Res, Chonju 363891, South Korea. AB Dust storms frequently occur in Mongolia and in northern China. Each year there are 30 to 120 dusty days in source regions of Mongolia and 14-20 dusty days on the Korean Peninsula. Intense sand storms and associated dust falls produce environmental impacts in East Asia. This paper discusses the environmental degradation in Mongolia and the social, economic and atmospheric impacts of dust storms in the sink area. The impact of dust storms on environmental compartments as well as their direct and indirect consequences to basic resources like water and energy demand and supply is explained. Governments are encouraged to take appropriate action in specified regions. For monitoring dust storms there is a need for international cooperation to combat growing environmental and human security concerns. CR 2002, JAPAN TIMES 0409 2002, KOREA HERALD 0409 *ADB, 2001, AS DEV BANKS AS ENV *ADB, 2001, WAT ALL WAT POL AS D *WHO UNCEF, 2000, GLOB WAT SUPPL SAN A *WORLD RES I, 2001, WORLD RES 2000 2001 ABE S, 2002, NE AS EC C NIIG JAP BABSON O, 2002, NE AS EC C NIIG JAP BATJARGAL Z, 2001, 7 KAN S NE AS DIAL K CHUNG YS, 2003, ATMOS ENVIRON, V37, P3425 CHUNG YS, 2003, WATER AIR SOIL POLL, P5 HIRONO R, 2002, COMMUNICATION JIBIKI M, 2002, NE AS EC C NIIG JAP ROSEN R, 2002, COMMUNICATION NR 14 TC 0 J9 ENVIRON MONIT ASSESS BP 447 EP 460 PY 2006 PD MAR VL 114 IS 1-3 GA 033JY UT ISI:000236844500026 ER PT J AU Lee, JJ Phillips, DL Benson, VW TI Soil erosion and climate change: Assessing potential impacts and adaptation practices SO JOURNAL OF SOIL AND WATER CONSERVATION LA English DT Article C1 US EPA, Natl Hlth & Environm Effects Res Lab, Corvallis, OR 97333 USA. USDA, Nat Resources Conservat Serv Grassland, Soil & Water Res Lab, Temple, TX 76502 USA. RP Lee, JJ, US EPA, Natl Hlth & Environm Effects Res Lab, 200 SW 35th St, Corvallis, OR 97333 USA. AB Changes in climate associated with changes in atmospheric concentrations of CO2 and other greenhouse gases might affect soil erosion by wind and water. Changes in erosion could in turn cause changes in productivity and sustainability of agricultural systems, and changes in air quality (PM10) and water quality (sediment transport). Substantial effects on productivity may however, only occur several decades after climate changes. This paper presents a procedure for assessing the potential effects of climate change on erosion and productivity. A preliminary screening process is used to identify and prioritize regions and management systems. Subsequent simulation of selected sites with the EPIC model is used to investigate potential practices to adapt agricultural systems to climate change. In some cases, proposed adaptation strategies might reduce sustainability if they due not matched to environmental conditions found at specific sites. As an example, the assessment procedure is applied to evaluate vulnerability and adaptation practices for a 20% increase in mean monthly wind speeds in the U.S. corn belt. CR *AGR RES SERV, 1995, EPIC US GUID DRAFT U *NAT AGR STAT SERV, 1993, AGR STAT 1993 ADAMS RM, 1990, NATURE, V345, P219 BENSON VW, 1989, J SOIL WATER CONSERV, V44, P600 BOARDMAN J, 1990, LAND DEGRAD REHABIL, V2, P95 BOARDMAN J, 1993, GEOGR J, V159, P179 CROSSON PR, 1993, AGR DIMENSIONS GLOBA, P117 FAVISMORTLOCK D, IN PRESS GEOMORPHOLO FAVISMORTLOCK DT, 1991, AGR SYST, V37, P415 FRANZ EH, 1990, SOILS WARMER EARTH, P109 HOUGHTON JT, 1990, CLIMATE CHANGE IPCC JENKINSON DS, 1991, NATURE, V351, P304 KELLOGG RL, 1994, J SOIL WATER CONSERV, V49, P521 LEE JJ, 1993, WATER AIR SOIL POLL, V70, P389 LEE JJ, 1996, IN PRESS AGR SYSTEMS, V52 OLDEMAN LR, 1990, WORLD MAP STAT HUM I ONSTAD CA, 1975, T ASAE, V18, P288 PHILLIPS DL, 1993, LAND DEGRAD REHABIL, V4, P61 PHILLIPS DL, 1996, IN PRESS AGR SYSTEMS, V52 ROBINSON AR, 1979, UNIVERSAL SOIL LOSS, P7 ROSENZWEIG C, 1994, NATURE, V367, P133 SHARPLEY AN, 1990, USDA TECHNICAL B, V1768 STETLER LD, 1994, ANN M CINC JUN 19 24 STOCKLE CO, 1992, AGR SYST, V38, P225 TINKER PB, 1990, SOILS WARMER EARTH, P71 TUKEY JW, 1977, EXPLORATORY DATA ANA VARALLYAY GY, 1990, SOILS WARMER EARTH, P39 WILLIAMS JR, 1975, PRESENT PROSPECTIVE, P244 WILLIAMS JR, 1994, NEW EPIC WIND EROSIO WISCHMEIER WH, 1978, USDA AGR HDB, V537 WOODRUFF NP, 1965, SOIL SCI SOC AM J, V29, P602 NR 31 TC 0 J9 J SOIL WATER CONSERV BP 529 EP 536 PY 1999 VL 54 IS 3 GA 277MB UT ISI:000084936400003 ER PT J AU Russ, GR Alcala, AC TI Natural fishing experiments in marine reserves 1983-1993: roles of life history and fishing intensity in family responses SO CORAL REEFS LA English DT Article C1 James Cook Univ N Queensland, Dept Marine Biol, Townsville, Qld 4811, Australia. Dev Acad Philippines, Pasig, Metro Manila, Philippines. RP Russ, GR, James Cook Univ N Queensland, Dept Marine Biol, Townsville, Qld 4811, Australia. AB This study examined the effect of fishing on the abundance and species richness of families of coral reef fish at two islands (Sumilon and Apo) in the Philippines from 1983 to 1993. Natural fishing experiments occurred in marine reserves at each island, where long term estimates of fishing intensity were available. Responses to fishing were interpreted in terms of life histories of fish. The intensity of fishing and fish life histories were generally good predictors of the differential rates of decline and recovery of abundance in response to fishing. Large predators had vulnerable life histories (low rates of natural mortality, growth and recruitment) and were subjected to high intensity fishing. They declined significantly in density when fished and increased significantly but slowly when protected from fishing. Caesionidae, a family with a life history resilient to fishing (high rates of natural mortality, growth and recruitment) but fished intensively also declined rapidly in abundance when fished. Thus, knowledge of life history alone was insufficient to predict response to fishing. Acanthuridae were fished relatively hard and had a life history of intermediate vulnerability but displayed weak responses to fishing. Thus level of fishing intensity alone was also not sufficient to predict response to fishing. For Chaetodontidae, effects of fishing conformed to expectations based on life history and fishing intensity at one island but not the other. Three families with intermediate vulnerability and subjected to intermediate to light fishing (F. Scaridae, Labridae and Mullidae) displayed predictably weak responses to fishing, or counter-intuitive responses (e.g., increasing in abundance following fishing). These counter-intuitive responses were unlikely to be secondary effects of increase in prey in response to declines of predators. Two lightly-fished families with resilient life histories (F. Pomacentridae, Sub F. Anthiinae) predictably displayed weak numerical responses to fishing except during a period of use of explosives and drive nets. 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SE Archaeol Res Inc, Gainesville, FL 32604 USA. Rollins Coll, Dept Anthropol, Winter Pk, FL 32789 USA. Univ Michigan, Sch Nat Resources & Environm, Ann Arbor, MI 48109 USA. RP Ensor, BE, Univ Florida, Dept Anthropol, 1112 Turlington Hall,POB 117305, Gainesville, FL 32611 USA. AB Waters and Ravesloot(2001) test the assumption that natural river channel change caused periods of Hohokam cultural reorganization. However, they conclude that channel changes did not correlate with all periods and areas of significant cultural changes and that landscape alone cannot explain Hohokam transformations. An anthropological perspective on political ecology and disasters can explain why environmental processes and events differentially impact societies, differentially impact societies diachronically and differentially impact social groups within societies. We suggest that this perspective may explain the variability described by Waters and Ravesloot. CR ABBOTT DR, 2000, CERAMICS COMMUNITY O ACKERLY NW, 1989, PREHISTORIC AGR ACTI, P333 ALEXANDER D, 1997, DISASTERS, V21, P284 ANDERSON RS, 1994, PUBLICATIONS ARCHAEO, V2, P205 BAHRE CJ, 1991, LEGACY CHANGE HIST H BARNES MR, 1984, KIVA, V49, P213 BASSETT TJ, 1988, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V78, P453 BAWDEN G, 2000, 7 MAXW MUS ANTHR BAYMAN JM, 1997, AM ANTIQUITY, V62, P103 BAYMAN JM, 1999, ANTIQUITY, V73, P836 BAYMAN JM, 1999, J ARCHAEOL RES, V7, P249 BENDER B, 1992, MAN, V27, P735 BENDER BA, 1993, LANDSCAPE POLITICS P BLAIKIE PM, 1994, RISK NATURAL HAZARDS, V1, P1 BOHRER VL, 1991, KIVA, V56, P227 BOLIN R, 1999, ANGRY EARTH DISASTER, P89 BOSTWICK TW, 1994, ARCHAEOL PUEBLO GRAN, V2, P297 BOTTEMA S, 1990, MANS ROLE SHAPING E BRUNSONHADLEY J, 1994, ARCHAEOLOGY PUEBLO G, V2, P185 BRYANT RL, 1997, 3 WORLD POLITICAL EC CABLE JS, 1987, HOHOKAM VILLAGE SITE, P21 CAMBELL CE, 1996, THESIS U FLORIDA GAI CROWN PL, 1987, J FIELD ARCHAEOL, V14, P147 CROWN PL, 1991, CHACO HOHOKAM PREHIS, P135 CRUMLEY CL, 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INTERPRETATIONS CALA HEWITT K, 1997, REGIONS RISK GEOGRAP, V1, P1 HIRSCH E, 1995, ANTHR LANDSCAPE PERS HUCKLEBERRY G, 1994, GEOLOGY, V22, P1083 HUCKLEBERRY G, 1999, KIVA, V65, P7 INGOLD T, 1993, WORLD ARCHAEOL, V25, P152 INGOLD T, 1995, SHIFTING CONTEXTS TR, P58 KWIATKOWSKI S, 1994, PUBLICATIONS ARCHAEO, V20, P5 LEES SH, 1990, ECOSYSTEM APPROACH A, P247 LEIGHLY J, 1965, LAND LIFE SELECTION LEONE MP, 1995, AM ANTHROPOL, V97, P251 LOPEZ M, 1999, YAXKIN, V18, P5 MASSE WB, 1991, CHACO HOHOKAM PREHIS, P195 MCGUIRE R, 1992, DEATH SOC IDEOLOGY H MCGUIRE RH, 1987, KIVA, V52, P113 MEISTER CW, 1975, THESIS U MICHIGAN AN MILLER J, 1994, PUBLICATIONS ARCHAEO, V20, P127 MOORE DS, 1993, ECON GEOGR, V69, P380 MOSELEY M, 1999, ANGRY EARTH DISASTER, P59 NIALS F, 1989, ARIZONA STATE MUSEUM, V162, P59 NICHOLAS L, 1984, PREHIST AGR STRATEGI, P161 OLIVERSMITH A, 1998, IS DISASTER PERSPECT, P177 OLIVERSMITH A, 1999, ANGRY EARTH DISASTER, P75 OLIVO M, 2002, THESIS U FLORIDA GAI PATTERSON WA, 1988, HOLOCENE 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TOPPING P, 1997, NEOLITHIC LANDSCAPES TORRY WI, 1986, GEOJOURNAL, V12, P5 TORRY WI, 1986, SOC SCI INFORM, V25, P125 UCKO PJ, 1999, ARCHAEOLOGY ANTHR LA VANBUREN M, 2001, J ARCHAEOL METHOD TH, V8, P129 VANGERVEN DP, 1994, SOIL SYSTEMS PUBLICA, V20 VANKEUREN S, 1997, KIVA, V63, P155 WADDINGTON C, 1999, LANDSCAPE ARCHAEOLOG WATERS MR, 1992, PRINCIPLES GEOARCHAE WATERS MR, 2001, AM ANTIQUITY, V66, P285 WATTS MJ, 1983, INTERPRETATIONS CALA, P124 WEBER DJ, 1982, MEXICAN FRONTIER 182 WILCOX DR, 1979, ARCHAEOLOGICAL TEST, P77 WILCOX DR, 1981, ARIZONA STATE MUSEUM, V155 WILCOX DR, 1983, ARIZONA STATE MUSEUM, V160 WILCOX DR, 1994, THEMES SW PREHISTORY, P211 WISNER B, 1976, 96 U SUSS I DEV STUD WISNER B, 1978, ANTIPODE, V10, P84 WOLF E, 1972, ANTHR Q, V45, P201 ZARINS J, 2000, ENV DISASTER ARCHAEO, P35 NR 118 TC 0 J9 AMER ANTIQ BP 169 EP 181 PY 2003 PD JAN VL 68 IS 1 GA 640EN UT ISI:000180675200011 ER PT J AU Keys, E McConnell, WJ TI Global change and the intensification of agriculture in the tropics SO GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS LA English DT Review C1 Arizona State Univ, Dept Geog, Tempe, AZ 85287 USA. Indiana Univ, Ctr Study Inst Populat & Environm Change, Bloomington, IN 47405 USA. RP Keys, E, Arizona State Univ, Dept Geog, Box 870104, Tempe, AZ 85287 USA. AB Bridging understanding of local environmental change with regional and global patterns of land-use and land-cover change (LUCC) remains a key goal and challenge for our understanding of global environmental change. This meta-analysis attempts to bridge local and regional scales of LUCC by demonstrating the ways in which previously published case studies can be compared and used for a broader regional synthesis in the tropics. In addition to providing results from a meta-analysis, this paper suggests ways to make future case studies more widely comparable. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 *NAT RES COUNC, 1999, HUM DIM GLOB ENV CHA *NAT RES COUNC, 2001, GRAND CHALL ENV SCI *WORLD RES I, 1996, WORLD RES GUID GLOB *WORLD RES I, 2000, WORLD RES 2000 01 ACHARD F, 1998, IDENTIFICATION DEFOR ALEXANDRATOS N, 1995, WORLD AGR 2000 FAO S ALTIERI MA, 1995, AGROECOLOGY SCI SUST ANGELSEN A, 1999, WORLD BANK RES OBSER, V14, P73 BARLETT PF, 1976, J ANTHROPOL RES, V32, P124 BATTERBURY S, 1998, ASS AM GEOGR ANN M B BEBBINGTON A, 2000, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V90, P495 BENIN S, 2001, LAND DEGRAD DEV, V12, P555 BENJAMINSEN TA, 2001, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V11, P283 BERNARD F, 1993, POPULATION GROWTH AG, P80 BOSERUP E, 1965, CONDITIONS AGR GROWT BOSERUP E, 1981, POPULATION PRESSURE BOYD DJ, 2001, HUM ECOL, V29, P259 BRIGGS J, 1991, T I BRIT GEOGR, V16, P319 BRONDIZIO ES, 1997, RES ECON AN, V18, P233 BRONDIZIO ES, 1999, MANAGING GLOBALIZED, P88 BROOKFIELD HC, 1964, ECON GEOGR, V40, P283 BROWDER JO, 2000, AGROFOREST SYST, V49, P63 BROWN P, 1976, ETHNOLOGY, V15, P211 BUTZER KW, 1982, ARCHAEOLOGY HUMAN EC CARNEY J, 1993, ECON GEOGR, V69, P329 CHAYANOV AV, 1966, THEORY PEASANT EC CONELLY WT, 1992, HUM ECOL, V20, P203 CONELLY WT, 2001, HUM ECOL, V28, P19 COOMES OT, 2000, ECOL ECON, V32, P109 CRUTZEN PJ, 2001, GLOBAL CHANGE NEWSLE, V41, P12 CRUZ M, 1999, CURR ANTHROPOL, V40, P377 DIETZ T, 2003, SCIENCE, V302, P1907 DOOLITTLE WE, 1984, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V74, P124 DRESCHER AW, 1996, AFRICAN URBAN Q, V11, P210 DUCKHAM M, 2003, FDN GEOGRAPHIC INFOR EDER JF, 1991, HUM ORGAN, V50, P245 EHRLICH PR, 1988, CASSANDRA CONFERENCE EHRLICH PR, 1990, POPULATION EXPLOSION EHRLICH PR, 1993, POPUL DEV REV, V19, P1 EWELL PT, 1987, COMP FARMING SYSTEMS, P95 FISHER MG, 2000, SOC NATUR RESOUR, V13, P203 FORD RE, 1993, POPULATION GROWTH AG, P145 GEERTZ C, 1963, AGR INVOLUTION PROCE GEIST HJ, 2001, LUCC REPORT SERIES, V4 GEIST HJ, 2002, BIOSCIENCE, V52, P143 GEIST HJ, 2004, BIOSCIENCE, V54, P817 GEORGE PS, 2001, TRI ACADEMY PANEL, P79 GODOY R, 1997, CURR ANTHROPOL, V38, P875 GOLDMAN A, 1993, ECON GEOGR, V69, P44 GRAF WL, 2001, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V91, P1 GRAY LC, 2001, WORLD DEV, V29, P573 GROSSMAN LS, 1993, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V83, P347 GUILLET D, 1987, RES EC ANTHR, V8, P201 GUMBO DJ, 1996, AFRICAN URBAN Q, V11, P210 GUYER J, 1993, AM ETHNOL, V95, P836 HAYAMI Y, 1985, AGR DEV INT PERSPECT HENRICH J, 1997, HUM ECOL, V25, P319 HOPKINS NS, 1987, COMP FARMING SYSTEMS, P223 HUMPHRIES S, 1993, HUM ECOL, V21, P87 JOHNSON SH, 1986, IRRIGATION INVESTMEN, P111 KAMMERBAUER J, 1999, AGR ECOSYST ENVIRON, V75, P93 KASFIR N, 1993, POPULATION GROWTH AG, P41 KASPERSON JX, 1995, REGIONS RISK, V1, P1 KATES RW, 1987, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V77, P525 KATES RW, 1995, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V85, P623 KATES RW, 2001, SCIENCE, V292, P641 KEESE JR, 1998, HUM ECOL, V26, P451 KEYS E, 2004, DUAL FRONTIERS INTEG, P207 KULL CA, 1998, PROF GEOGR, V50, P163 KUNSTADTER P, 1987, COMP FARMING SYSTEMS, P130 LAMBIN EF, 1999, LAND USE LAND COVER LAMBIN EF, 2001, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V11, P261 LANEY RM, 2002, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V92, P702 LEAF MJ, 1987, COMP FARMING SYSTEMS, P248 LEE RD, 1986, STATE POPULATION THE, P96 LVOVICH MI, 1990, EARTH TRANSFORMED HU MALTHUS TR, 1986, ESSAY PRINCIPLE POPU MARTIN S, 1993, POPULATION GROWTH AG, P302 MAXWELL D, 1999, THIRD WORLD PLAN REV, V21, P373 MCCONNELL WJ, 2005, SEEING FOREST TREES, P325 MCKEAN MA, 2000, PEOPLE FORESTS COMMU MEYER WB, 1994, CHANGES LAND USE LAN MITTERMEIER RA, 1998, CONSERV BIOL, V12, P516 MORAN EF, 1995, COMP ANAL HUMAN SOC MORTIMORE MJ, 1993, POPULATION GROWTH AG, P358 NETTING R, 1993, POPULATION GROWTH AG, P206 NICHOLS DL, 1987, AM ANTHROPOL, V89, P596 OKOTHOGENDO HWO, 1993, POPULATION GROWTH AG, P187 ORTIZ R, 1998, OUTLOOK AGR, V27, P125 OSTROM E, 1990, GOVERNING COMMONS EV PADOCH C, 1998, HUM ECOL, V26, P3 RAGIN CC, 2000, FUZZY SET SOCIAL SCI RAMANKUTTY N, 1999, GLOBAL BIOGEOCHEM CY, V13, P997 RAMANKUTTY N, 2002, GLOBAL ECOL BIOGEOGR, V11, P377 RAVEN PH, 2002, SCIENCE, V297, P954 REDMAN CL, 1999, HUMAN IMPACT ANCIENT RICHARDS P, 1987, COMP FARMING SYSTEMS, P156 RINDFUSS RR, 2004, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V101, P13976 ROBBINS P, 2001, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V91, P637 ROCHELEAU D, 1996, FEMINIST POLITICAL E ROOT TL, 2003, NATURE, V421, P57 RUDEL T, 1996, AMBIO, V25, P160 RUDEL T, 1997, WORLD DEV, V25, P53 RUDEL TK, 2002, LAT AM RES REV, V37, P144 RUDEL TK, 2005, TROPICAL FORESTS REG SCHELHAS J, 1996, HUM ORGAN, V55, P298 SHIDONG Z, 2001, GROWING POPULATIONS, P179 SHIDONG Z, 2001, GROWING POPULATIONS, P207 SHIVELY GE, 2001, LAND ECON, V77, P268 SHORR N, 2001, HUM ECOL, V28, P73 SHRIAR AJ, 2001, HUM ECOL, V29, P27 SIERRA R, 1999, ECOL ECON, V30, P107 STEFFEN W, 2004, GLOBAL CHANGE EARTH TAUSSIG M, 1978, LAT AM PERSPECT, V5, P62 TIFFEN M, 1994, MORE PEOPLE LESS ERO, P261 TILMAN D, 1999, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V96, P5995 TURNER BL, 1977, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V67, P384 TURNER BL, 1978, PROF GEOGR, V30, P297 TURNER BL, 1987, COMP FARMING SYSTEMS TURNER BL, 1990, EARTH TRANSFORMED HU TURNER BL, 1993, 24HDP IGBP TURNER BL, 1996, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V93, P14984 TURNER BL, 2002, CHALLENGES CHANGING, P21 VASHISHTHA PS, 2001, GROWING POPULATIONS, P107 VERMEER DE, 1970, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V60, P299 WAGGONER PE, 2002, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V99, P7860 WATSON RT, 2001, INTERGOVERNMENTAL PA WIEGERS ES, 1999, HUM ECOL, V27, P319 WILKEN G, 1987, GOOD FARMERS TRADITI ZWEIFLER MO, 1994, PROF GEOGR, V46, P39 NR 131 TC 2 J9 GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANGE BP 320 EP 337 PY 2005 PD DEC VL 15 IS 4 GA 988TG UT ISI:000233623200005 ER PT J AU Ettazarini, S TI Groundwater pollution risk mapping for the Eocene aquifer of the Oum Er-Rabia basin, Morocco SO ENVIRONMENTAL GEOLOGY LA English DT Article C1 Mohamed V Agdal Univ, Dept Geol, Fac Sci, Rabat, Morocco. RP Ettazarini, S, Mohamed V Agdal Univ, Dept Geol, Fac Sci, Rabat, Morocco. AB Sustainable development requires the management and preservation of water resources indispensable for all human activities. When groundwater constitutes the main water resource, vulnerability maps therefore are an important tool for identifying zones of high pollution risk and taking preventive measures in potential pollution sites. The vulnerability assessment for the Eocene aquifer in the Moroccan basin of Oum Er-Rabia is based on the DRASTIC method that uses seven parameters summarizing climatic, geological, and hydrogeological conditions controlling the seepage of pollutant substances to groundwater. Vulnerability maps were produced by using GIS techniques and applying the "generic" and "agricultural" models according to the DRASTIC charter. Resulting maps revealed that the aquifer is highly vulnerable in the western part of the basin and areas being under high contamination risk are more extensive when the "agricultural" model was applied. CR 1993, R356104SEAU92 ALLER L, 1985, US EPA600285018 BELFKIRA O, 1980, THESIS SCI MED U GRE, P167 BENBIBA A, 1994, EAU DEV, V17, P15 BENHAMMOU Y, 1995, THESIS HASSAN, V2, P180 CHEN SY, 2003, HYDROLOG SCI J, V48, P211 DEICHERT LA, 1992, ASAE INT WINT M NASH ELMAHMOUHI N, 2003, REV MAROC GENIE CIVI, V104, P30 ETTAZARINI S, 2002, THESIS MOHAMED V AGD, P286 ETTAZARINI S, 2004, ENVIRON GEOL, V46, P113 ETTAZARINI S, 2004, ENVIRON GEOL, V47, P69 ETTAZARINI S, 2005, ENVIRON GEOL, V49, P293 HSISSOU Y, 1991, THESIS U FRANCHE COM, P196 ZHOU HC, 1999, HYDROLOG SCI J, V44, P611 NR 14 TC 0 J9 ENVIRON GEOL BP 341 EP 347 PY 2006 PD NOV VL 51 IS 3 GA 114NE UT ISI:000242672100002 ER PT J AU Baxter, PJ TI The east coast Big Flood, 31 January-1 February 1953: a summary of the human disaster SO PHILOSOPHICAL TRANSACTIONS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY A-MATHEMATICAL PHYSICAL AND ENGINEERING SCIENCES LA English DT Article C1 Univ Cambridge, Inst Publ Hlth, Cambridge CB2 2SR, England. RP Baxter, PJ, Univ Cambridge, Inst Publ Hlth, Forvie Site,Robinson Way, Cambridge CB2 2SR, England. AB The Big Flood was the worst natural disaster to befall Britain during the twentieth century, and the scale of its human impact was due to the lack of adequate disaster preparedness. The 307 deaths on land were caused by drowning or from the effects of exposure. Two-thirds occurred in four clusters along the shoreline and mainly comprised inhabitants of post-war prefabricated buildings, bungalows and chalets, with the highest mortality among the elderly. The emergency response was spontaneous and community led, with the main search and rescue completed before central government became involved. No individuals or agencies were blamed for the neglected state of the flood defences or the absence of warnings, along with the post-war shortage of adequate housing, which were the main causes of vulnerability. The media played a limited role, and television was in its infancy. Mental health impacts were either self-limiting or failed to be articulated in a society recovering from the Second World War. The major mitigating factors included the empathetic response of people, locally and nationally, as well as the availability of armed forces personnel based in East Anglia, whose actions played a decisive part in the battle against the sea. The major legacies of the Big Flood were a coastal flood forecasting system, a more scientific approach to sea defences and the building of the Thames barrier. CR *DEP HLTH, 2002, HLTH EFF CLIM CHANG *HOM OFF SCOTT OFF, 1954, REP DEP COMM COAST F ANDERSON HR, 1999, AIR POLLUTION HLTH, P461 BAXTER PJ, 2002, HLTH EFFECTS CLIMATE, P134 BAXTER PJ, 2002, HLTH EFFECTS CLIMATE, P152 GILBERT S, 1984, THAMES BARRIER GRIEVE H, 1959, GREAT TIDE HARLAND MG, 1980, FLOODING E ENGLAND LORRAINE NSR, 1954, BRIT MED J, V1, P59 MCLEOAD L, 2000, SAVAGE PLANET NOJI EK, 1997, PUBLIC HLTH CONSEQUE OHL CA, 2000, BRIT MED J, V321, P1167 PARSONS K, 2003, HUMAN THERMAL ENV POLLARD M, 1978, N SEA SURGE SCHAMA S, 2002, HIST BRIT FATE EMPIR SMITH K, 1998, FLOODS PHYS PROCESSE STEERS JA, 1953, GEOGR J, V119, P280 STEERS JA, 1979, GEOG J, V145, P192 SUMMERS D, 1978, E COAST FLOODS WEART SR, 2003, DISCOVERY GLOBAL WAR WISNER B, 2004, RISK NR 21 TC 0 J9 PHIL TRANS ROY SOC A-MATH PHY BP 1293 EP 1312 PY 2005 PD JUN 15 VL 363 IS 1831 GA 959RV UT ISI:000231536900003 ER PT J AU Chambers, LE TI Associations between climate change and natural systems in Australia SO BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY LA English DT Article C1 Bur Meteorol Res Ctr, Melbourne, Vic 3001, Australia. RP Chambers, LE, Bur Meteorol Res Ctr, GPO Box 1289, Melbourne, Vic 3001, Australia. AB In the 2001 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Third Assessment Report numerous studies of processes and species associated with regional temperature change were listed for the Northern Hemisphere (107 in North America, 458 in Europe, and 14 in Asia), but only a handful of studies for the Southern Hemisphere and, sadly, none for Australia were included. This article looks at the progress that Australia has made in addressing these knowledge gaps during the last three years. The article highlights the need for a national approach to the study of the associations between climate change and natural systems and suggests ways in which this could be achieved. CR BERGSTROM D, 2003, CLIMATE CHANGE IMPAC, P55 BOWMAN DMJS, 2001, GLOBAL ECOL BIOGEOGR, V10, P535 BRIGHAM LC, 1992, PHILOS LITERATURE, V16, P15 BUDD GM, 2000, PAP P R SOC TASMANIA, V133, P47 BULL CM, 2002, J ZOOL 3, V256, P383 CHAMBERS LE, 2005, CLIMATE RES, V29, P157 CHAMBERS LE, 2005, EMU, V105, P1 CHILCOTT C, 2002, CLIMATE CHANGE IMPAC, P63 COLLINS DA, 2000, AUST METEOROL MAG, V49, P277 FRITH HJ, 1982, WATERFOWL AUSTR GREEGOR RB, 2001, J SOL-GEL SCI TECHN, V20, P35 GREEN K, 2002, GLOBAL MOUNTAIN BIOD, P241 HOUGHTON JT, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 HUGHES L, 2000, TRENDS ECOL EVOL, V15, P56 HUGHES L, 2003, AUSTRAL ECOL, V28, P423 KEATLEY MR, 2005, P GREENHOUSE 2005 AC KINGSFORD RT, 2002, EMU, V102, P47 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 MENZEL A, 2002, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V54, P379 NICHOLLS N, 2003, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V30 NORMENT CJ, 2004, EMU, V104, P327 PARMESAN C, 1996, NATURE, V382, P765 PARMESAN C, 2003, NATURE, V421, P37 ROOT TL, 1994, P AM PHILOS SOC, V138, P377 ROOT TL, 2003, NATURE, V421, P57 SPARKS TH, 2002, INT J CLIMATOL, V22, P1715 SPARKS TH, 2002, WEATHER, V57, P157 SPARKS TH, 2002, WEATHER, V57, P399 THOMAS CD, 1999, NATURE, V399, P213 TIDEMANN CR, 1999, ACTA CHIROPTEROL, V1, P151 UMINA PA, 2005, SCIENCE, V308, P691 WALTHER GR, 2002, NATURE, V416, P389 NR 32 TC 0 J9 BULL AMER METEOROL SOC BP 201 EP + PY 2006 PD FEB VL 87 IS 2 GA 021CW UT ISI:000235962000014 ER PT J AU Sharpley, AN Tunney, H TI Phosphorus research strategies to meet agricultural and environmental challenges of the 21st century SO JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY LA English DT Article C1 ARS, USDA, Pasture Syst & Watershed Management Res Lab, University Pk, PA 16802 USA. TEGASC, Soil & Environm Res Ctr, Wexford, Ireland. RP Sharpley, AN, ARS, USDA, Pasture Syst & Watershed Management Res Lab, University Pk, PA 16802 USA. AB The accumulation, management, and transfer of P in intensive farming systems has increased P export from agricultural watersheds and accelerated eutrophication of surface waters. Even though much research on P has been done in the last 20 years, there are still too few answers to the many questions now being asked regarding agricultural production;md environmental quality, To address these concerns, four areas of research are suggested: (i) Soil P testing for environmental risk assessment-What losses are acceptable and arm these losses be determined by plot-scale or watershed-scale studies? Threshold P levers in soil and water should be established in combination with an assessment of site vulnerability to P loss. (ii) Pathways of P transport-An analysis of the relative importance of different flow pathways is needed at a watershed scale, (iii) Best Management Practice (BMP) development and implementation-Overall, BMPs must attempt to bring P inputs rand outputs into closer balance and should be targeted first to critical source areas within a watershed. Alternative management recommendations, uses, and market demand for manures must be developed. (iv) Strategic initiatives to manage P-To initiate lasting changes, research should focus on consumer-supported programs that encourage farmer performance and stewardship to achieve agreed-upon environmental goals. 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RP Schnur, R, Max Planck Inst Meteorol, Bundesstr 55, D-20146 Hamburg, Germany. CR EASTERLING DR, 2000, SCIENCE, V289, P2068 HOUGHTON JT, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001 KHARIN VV, 2000, J CLIMATE, V13, P3760 MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 MEEHL GA, 2000, B AM METEOROL SOC, V81, P413 MILLY PCD, 2002, NATURE, V415, P514 PALMER TN, 2000, REP PROG PHYS, V63, P71 PALMER TN, 2002, NATURE, V415, P512 NR 8 TC 10 J9 NATURE BP 483 EP 484 PY 2002 PD JAN 31 VL 415 IS 6871 GA 516PQ UT ISI:000173564300027 ER PT J AU OBrien, KL TI Are we missing the point? Global environmental change as an issue of human security SO GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS LA English DT Editorial Material C1 Univ Oslo, Dept Sociol & Human Geog, N-0316 Oslo, Norway. RP OBrien, K, Univ Oslo, Dept Sociol & Human Geog, N-0316 Oslo, Norway. CR *GECHS, 1999, GLOB ENV CHANG HUM S *MILL EC ASS, 2005, EC HUM WELLB SYNTH CUTTER SL, 2005, UNDERSTANDING KATRIN EMANUEL K, 2005, NATURE, V436, P686 FISCHETTI M, 2001, SCI AM OCT, P77 FORSYTH T, 2003, CRITICAL POLITICAL E LEICHENKO RM, 2006, IN PRESS DOUBLE EXPO LOMBORG B, 2005, GLOBAL CRISES GLOBAL LONGLEY PA, 2005, GEOGRAPHIC INFORM SY OBRIEN KL, 2003, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V93, P89 OBRIEN KL, 2005, AVISO, V15 SCHAR C, 2004, NATURE, V427, P332 SEAGER J, 2005, CHICAGO HERALD SEP STEFFEN W, 2004, GLOBAL CHANGE EARTH STOTT PA, 2004, NATURE, V432, P610 STROEVE JC, 2005, GEOPHYS RES LETT, V32 NR 16 TC 2 J9 GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANGE BP 1 EP 3 PY 2006 PD FEB VL 16 IS 1 GA 013QP UT ISI:000235424500001 ER PT J AU Perez, RT Amadore, LA Feir, RB TI Climate change impacts and responses in the Philippines coastal sector SO CLIMATE RESEARCH LA English DT Article C1 PAGASA, Quezon City 1104, Philippines. NAMRIA, DENR, CGSD, Manila, Philippines. RP Perez, RT, PAGASA, Agham Rd, Quezon City 1104, Philippines. AB The Manila Bay coastal area in The Philippines was evaluated for the possible consequences of accelerated sea level rise in the context of climate change and to assess adaptive responses to such threats. The coastal area is an important region in terms of commercial, industrial, agricultural, and aquacultural activities of The Philippines. Results show that areas along the coast if inundated by a 1 m sea level rise would include coastal barangays from 19 municipalities of Metro Manila, Bulacan, and Cavite and would cover an area of 5555 ha. Proposed response strategies consist of protecting the coast by building sea walls; institutional actions such as formulation of setback policies and construction regulations; and adaptive planning in the context of an integrated coastal zone management to address the short- and long-term problems, with the involvement of communities in the area. Information, education, and communication are essential along with the technical and scientific efforts to achieve a well-balanced adaptation plan. CR *DEP ENV NAT RES, 1996, PHIL ENV QUAL REP 19 *I CLIM ENV EN, 1997, REP SOC EC STUD MAN *IPCC, 1990, SEA LEV RIS CLIM CHA *NAT STAT OFF, 1990, PHIL STAT YB *US BUR FISH AQ RE, 1994, ANN REP 1993 *USAID DOH, 1993, LOOK PHIL POP SOC RE CARANDANG E, 1989, STUDY VARIATION SEA LEATHERMAN SP, 1995, J COASTAL RES, V14, P15 PEREZ RT, 1996, WATER AIR SOIL POLL, V92, P137 PIMENTEL AQ, 1993, LOCAL GOVT CODE 1991 POST JC, 1996, WORLD BANK MONOGRAPH, V9 WHITE AT, 1989, COASTAL ZONE MANAGEM NR 12 TC 0 J9 CLIMATE RES BP 97 EP 107 PY 1999 PD AUG 27 VL 12 IS 2-3 GA V3096 UT ISI:000171723000007 ER PT J AU Finlayson, CM TI Coastal, wetlands and climate change: the role of governance and science SO AQUATIC CONSERVATION-MARINE AND FRESHWATER ECOSYSTEMS LA English DT Article C1 Environm Res Inst Supervising Scientist, Jabiru, NT 0886, Australia. RP Finlayson, CM, Environm Res Inst Supervising Scientist, Locked Bag 2, Jabiru, NT 0886, Australia. CR WATSON RT, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE 1995, V1, P1 BAYLISS BL, 1998, 123 SUP SCI GROUP ELIOT I, IN PRESS WETLANDS EC FINLAYSON CM, IN PRESS WETLANDS EC FINLAYSON CM, 1988, CONSERVATION AUSTR W, P103 FINLAYSON CM, 1990, WETLANDS RIVER CORRI, P90 FINLAYSON CM, 1991, ED MANAGMENT WETLAND, P109 FINLAYSON CM, 1993, WETLANDS WORLD, V1, P195 FINLAYSON CM, 1995, 101 SUP SCI GROUP FINLAYSON CM, 1995, 101 SUP SCI GROUP, P2 FINLAYSON CM, 1996, GEOBOTANT, V23, P1 FINLAYSON CM, 1996, P 6 M C CONTR PART T, P32 FINLAYSON CM, 1997, WETLANDS ECOL MANAGE, V5, P19 FINLAYSON CM, 1998, REGIONAL REV WETLAND FINLAYSON CM, 1998, WETLANDS DRY LAND UN, P299 FINLAYSON CM, 1999, 133 OFF SUP SCI JONAUSKAS P, 1996, P WETL WORKSH MAK MU KAY R, 1993, VULNERABILITY ASSESS, P237 KENCHINGTON R, 1994, P COAST COAST 94 NAT STORRS MJ, 1997, 116 SUP SCI GROUP SUPPIAH R, 1998, CLIMATE CHANGE ENHAN WASSON RJ, 1992, 6 SUP SCI ALL RIV RE WOODROFFE CD, 1986, GEOMORPHOLOGICAL DYN WOODROFFE CD, 1993, GEOMORPHOLOGY LOWER WOODROOFFE CD, 1985, COASTS TIDAL WETLAND, P17 NR 25 TC 0 J9 AQUAT CONSERV BP 621 EP 626 PY 1999 PD NOV-DEC VL 9 IS 6 GA 271LC UT ISI:000084594200021 ER PT J AU Dessai, S Hulme, M TI Does climate adaptation policy need probabilities? SO CLIMATE POLICY LA English DT Review C1 Univ E Anglia, Sch Environm Sci, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. RP Dessai, S, Univ E Anglia, Sch Environm Sci, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. AB Estimating the likelihood of future climate change has become a priority objective within the research community. This is the case because of the advancement of science, because of user demand and because of the central role played by climate prediction in guiding adaptation policy. But are probabilities what climate policy really needs? This article reviews three key questions: (1) Why might we (not) need probabilities of climate change? (2) What are the problems in estimating probabilities? (3) How are researchers estimating probabilities? These questions are analysed within the context of adaptation to climate change. Overall, we conclude that the jury is still out on whether probabilities are useful for climate adaptation policy. The answer is highly context dependent and thus is a function of the goals and motivation of the policy analysis, the unit of analysis, timescale and the training of the analyst. Probability assessment in the context of climate change is always subjective, conditional and provisional. There are various problems in estimating the probability of future climate change, but reflexive human behaviour (i.e. actions explicitly influenced by information) is largely intractable in the context of prediction. Nonetheless, there is considerable scope to develop novel methodologies that combine conditional probabilities with scenarios and which are relevant for climate decision-making. 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P451 WILLIAMS LJ, 1998, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V39, P111 WILLOWS RI, 2003, CLIMATE ADAPTATION R WOLFE AK, 2001, ENV IMPACT ASSESSMEN YOHE GW, 1999, MITIGATION ADAPTATIO, V4, P319 ZAPERT R, 1998, ENERG ECON, V20, P571 ZENG LX, 2000, B AM METEOROL SOC, V81, P2075 ZIERVOGEL G, 2004, AGR SYST, P82 NR 126 TC 0 J9 CLIM POLICY BP 107 EP 128 PY 2004 VL 4 IS 2 GA 892TM UT ISI:000226672900002 ER PT J AU Tao, FL Yokozawa, M Xu, YL Hayashi, Y Zhang, Z TI Climate changes and trends in phenology and yields of field crops in China, 1981-2000 SO AGRICULTURAL AND FOREST METEOROLOGY LA English DT Article C1 Univ Tsukuba, Inst Geosci, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 3058571, Japan. Chinese Acad Agr Sci, Inst Agr Environm & Sustainable Dev, Beijing 100081, Peoples R China. Natl Inst Agroenvironm Sci, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 3058604, Japan. RP Tao, FL, Univ Tsukuba, Inst Geosci, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 3058571, Japan. AB A warming trend has become pronounced since the 1980s in China and is projected to accelerate in the future. Concerns about the vulnerability of agricultural production to climate change are increasing. The impact of future climate change on crop production has been widely predicted by using crop models and climate change scenarios, but little evidence of the observed impacts of climate change on crop production has been reported. In this study, we synthesized crop and climate data from representative stations across China during 1981-2000 to investigate whether there were significant trends in changes of climate variables in different regions, and whether theses changes have had significant impact on the development and production of the staple crops (i.e. rice, wheat, and maize). Our results showed that significant warming trends were observed at most of the investigated stations, and the changes in temperature have shifted crop phenology and affected crop yields during the two decades. The observed climate change patterns, as well their impacts on crop phenology and yields are spatially diverse across China. Our study also highlights the need for further investigations of the combined impacts of temperature and CO2 concentration on physiological processes and mechanisms governing crop growth and production. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 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Res Inst Soil Sci & Agrochem, RO-71331 Bucharest, Romania. RP Cuculeanu, V, Natl Inst Meteorol & Hydrol, Sos Bucuresti Ploiesti 97, RO-71552 Bucharest, Romania. AB The aim of this paper is to assess the potential effects of climate change on development, grain yield, and water balance for the main agricultural crops at 5 typical sites located in one of the most vulnerable zones of Romania. In addition, the paper evaluates possible adaptation measures of crop management to future climate changes. The vulnerability assessments focused on winter wheat and maize crops due to the particular importance of these crops in the cultivated areas and the difference in the genetic type of these crops reflected in their distinct physiological responses to CO2 concentration level (winter wheat is a C-3 crop, while maize is a C-4 crop). Outputs from 2 equilibrium 2 x CO2 general circulation models were used to develop climate change scenarios. CERES simulation models, linked with a seasonal analysis program included in the dedicated software DSSAT v3.0, were run for 30 yr with baseline climate and climate change scenarios. The results of crop simulations under climate change scenarios indicated that winter wheat benefits from the interaction of double CO2 concentrations and higher temperatures, while irrigated maize in southern Romania shows negative responses to climate change. The adverse impact of climate change on the maize crop can be lessened by using a longer maturing hybrid, sowing in the last week of April, applying a plant density of 5 plants m(-2), and increasing fertilization levels. CR *US COUNTR STUD MA, 1994, PO63 US COUNTR STUD BENIOFF R, 1996, VULNERABILITY ADAPTA GENG S, 1988, 204 U CAL DEP AGR RA GODWIN DC, 1989, USERS GUIDE CERES WH GOUDRIAAN J, 1990, ASA SPEC PUBL, V53, P111 RITCHIE JT, 1989, USERS GUIDE CERES MA SIMOTA C, 1997, COUNTRY STUDY CLIMAT TSUJI GI, 1994, DSSAT V3 0, V1 TSUJI GI, 1994, DSSAT V3 0, V2 TSUJI GI, 1994, DSSAT V3 0, V3 VANDEGEIJIN SC, 1993, CLIMATE CHANGE CROPS NR 11 TC 7 J9 CLIMATE RES BP 153 EP 160 PY 1999 PD AUG 27 VL 12 IS 2-3 GA V3096 UT ISI:000171723000013 ER PT J AU Caldwell, LK TI Is humanity destined to self-destruct? SO POLITICS AND THE LIFE SCIENCES LA English DT Article C1 Indiana Univ, Bloomington, IN 47405 USA. RP Caldwell, LK, Indiana Univ, Bloomington, IN 47405 USA. AB As the twentieth century ends, we may identify both constructive and destructive trends that will influence the future of humanity. Which set of trends will dominate the future is uncertain. Attitudes, beliefs, and behaviors all interact to direct the flow of change over time. However, the options and constraints of human life are ultimately fixed by those cosmic elements of the environment over which humans have no control. The modern assumption of a world without end or limits risks collision with that obdurate reality. Facing threats to its long-term survival, humanity is challenged to learn how to build a sustainable future. A successful effort will require a concerted and cooperative effort among all fields of knowledge. This article identifies some of the trends that threaten humanity's future and suggests four lines of action that should be pursued in order to reduce the likelihood that humanity will destroy itself. 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CR 1975, GREAT LAKES BASIN FR 1979, AUG P WORKSH EN CARB 1981, GREAT LAKES DIVERSIO 1981, JOINT WMO ICSU UNEP 1981, LAKE ERIE WATER LEVE 1982, CARBON DIOXIDE CLIMA 1983, CAN WE DELAY GREENHO 1983, TR006 DOENBB0040 US 1984, 84003 ENV STUD ASS D 1984, POTENTIAL CLIMATIC I AUSUBEL JH, 1980, INT I APPLIED SYSTEM, V10 AUSUBEL JH, 1983, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V5, P7 BACH W, 1979, 1978 P INT C BERL BACH W, 1984, OUR THREATENED CLIMA BACH W, 1984, PROG PHYS GEOG, V8, P583 BRUCE JP, 1984, J GREAT LAKES RES, V10, P126 CHEN RS, 1983, SOCIAL SCI RES CLIMA CLARK WC, 1982, CARBON DIOXIDE REV 1 CLARK WC, 1985, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V7, P5 COHEN SJ, 1985, CAN GEOGR, V29, P113 DECOOKE BG, 1984, CANADIAN WATER RESOU, V9, P1 GLANTZ MH, 1984, ENVIRON CONSERV, V11, P123 IDSO SB, 1982, CARBON DIOXIDE FRIEN IDSO SB, 1984, NATURE, V312, P51 JAGER J, 1983, CLIMATE ENERGY SYSTE JOHNSTONE KJ, 1984, 843 CAN CLIM CTR REP KATES RW, UNPUB CLIMATE IMPACT KELLOGG WW, 1981, CLIMATE CHANGE SOC MATHER J, 1978, CLIMATIC WATER BALAN MILLER JR, 1980, PROSPECTS MAN CLIMAT PALUTIKOF JP, 1984, TR012 DOEEV100985 US QUINN FH, 1981, IFYGL INT FIELD YEAR, P221 RICHARDS TL, 1969, 12TH P C GREAT LAK R, P469 SEWELL WRD, 1984, 8412 CAN CLIM CTR RE SLATER LE, 1981, AM ASS ADV SCI SELEC, V62 THORNES JE, 1981, PROGR PHYSICAL GEOGR, V5, P429 WILSON JW, 1981, IFYGL INT FIELD YEAR NR 37 TC 67 J9 CLIMATIC CHANGE BP 135 EP 153 PY 1986 PD APR VL 8 IS 2 GA A9771 UT ISI:A1986A977100003 ER PT J AU Holling, CS TI Understanding the complexity of economic, ecological, and social systems SO ECOSYSTEMS LA English DT Review C1 Univ Florida, Dept Zool, Gainesville, FL 32611 USA. RP Holling, CS, Univ Florida, Dept Zool, Gainesville, FL 32611 USA. AB Hierarchies and adaptive cycles comprise the basis of ecosystems and social-ecological systems across scales. Together they form a panarchy. The panarchy describes how a healthy system can invent and experiment, benefiting from inventions that create opportunity while being kept safe from those that destabilize because of their nature or excessive exuberance. Each level is allowed to operate at its own pace, protected from above by slower, larger levels but invigorated from below by faster, smaller cycles of innovation. The whole panarchy is therefore both creative and conserving. The interactions between cycles in a panarchy combine learning with continuity. An analysis of this process helps to clarify the meaning of "sustainable development." Sustainability is the capacity to create, test, and maintain adaptive capability. Development is the process of creating, testing, and maintaining opportunity. The phrase that combines the two, "sustainable development," thus refers to the goal of fostering adaptive capabilities and creating opportunities. It is therefore not an oxymoron but a term that describes a logical partnership. 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RP Kennish, MJ, Rutgers State Univ, Inst Marine & Coastal Sci, New Brunswick, NJ 08901 USA. AB Estuaries exhibit a wide array of human impacts that can compromise their ecological integrity, because of rapid population growth and uncontrolled development in many coastal regions worldwide. Long-term environmental problems plaguing estuaries require remedial actions to improve the viability and health of these valuable coastal systems. Detailed examination of the effects of pollution inputs, the loss and alteration of estuarine habitat, and the role of other anthropogenic stress indicates that water quality in estuaries, particularly urbanized systems, is often compromised by the overloading of nutrients and organic matter, the influx of pathogens, and the accumulation of chemical contaminants. In addition, the destruction of fringing wetlands and the loss and alteration of estuarine habitats usually degrade biotic communities. Estuaries are characterized by high population densities of microbes, plankton, benthic flora and fauna, and nekton; however, these organisms tend to be highly vulnerable to human activities in coastal watersheds and adjoining embayments. Trends suggest that by 2025 estuaries will be most significantly impacted by habitat loss and alteration associated with a burgeoning coastal population, which is expected to approach six billion people. Habitat destruction has far reaching ecological consequences, modifying the structure, function, and controls of estuarine ecosystems and contributing to the decline of biodiversity. Other anticipated high priority problems are excessive nutrient and sewage inputs to estuaries, principally from land-based sources. These inputs will lead to the greater incidence of eutrophication as well as hypoxia and anoxia. During the next 25 years, overfishing is expected to become a more pervasive and significant anthropogenic factor, also capable of mediating global-scale change to estuaries. Chemical contaminants, notably synthetic organic compounds, will remain a serious problem, especially in heavily industrialized areas. Freshwater diversions appear to be an emerging global problem as the expanding coastal population places greater demands on limited freshwater supplies for agricultural, domestic, and industrial needs. Altered freshwater flows could significantly affect nutrient loads, biotic community structure, and the trophodynamics of estuarine systems. Ecological impacts that will be less threatening, but still damaging, are those caused by introduced species, sea level rise, coastal subsidence, and debris/litter. Although all of these disturbances can alter habitats and contribute to shifts in the composition of estuarine biotic communities, the overall effect will be partial changes to these ecosystem components. Several strategies may mitigate future impacts. 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ENVIRON POLLUT, V88, P91 WILLIAMS GD, 2001, HDB RESTORING TIDAL, P235 WINDOM HL, 1992, MAR POLLUT BULL, V25, P32 WOLANSKI E, 1996, J MARINE SYST, V7, P267 WREN CD, 1995, HDB ECOTOXICOLOGY, P392 WRIGHT LD, 1995, MORPHODYNAMICS INNER WUEBBLES DJ, 1999, ENVIRON POLLUT, V100, P57 YAP HT, 1992, MAR POLLUT BULL, V25, P37 ZEDLER JB, 1996, ECOL APPL, V6, P84 ZEDLER JB, 1999, RESTOR ECOL, V7, P69 ZEDLER JB, 2001, HDB RESTORING TIDAL NR 180 TC 5 J9 ENVIRON CONSERV BP 78 EP 107 PY 2002 PD MAR VL 29 IS 1 GA 557TJ UT ISI:000175924000006 ER PT J AU Gaiser, T de Barros, I Lange, FM Williams, JR TI Water use efficiency of a maize/cowpea intercrop on a highly acidic tropical soil as affected by liming and fertilizer application SO PLANT AND SOIL LA English DT Article C1 Univ Hohenheim, Inst Soil Sci & Land Evaluat, D-70593 Stuttgart, Germany. CIRAD, F-34398 Montpellier 5, France. Texas Agr Exptl Stn, Temple, TX USA. RP Gaiser, T, Univ Hohenheim, Inst Soil Sci & Land Evaluat, D-70593 Stuttgart, Germany. AB Due to global warming, there is a need to increase the water use efficiency of crops under rainfed agriculture, particularly in semi-arid regions. Therefore, the effect of NPK fertilizer application (with or without liming) on the water use efficiency of a maize/cowpea intercropping system was investigated in the semi-arid part of Brazil. The crops were grown on a strongly acidic, sandy soil with three treatments: (i) Complete NPK fertilizer application with lime (Compl), (ii) Complete NPK fertilizer application without lime (Compl-L) and (iii) Control. On the average, dry matter production was 2.6 times higher with the Compl treatment than in the Control and 1.6 times higher than in the Compl-L treatment. The soil water balance was calculated with two different model approaches (HILLFLOW and EPICSEAR). When checked against measured soil water content during the growing period, both models produced accurate results, but only EPICSEAR was sensitive to the effects of liming and fertilizer application on soil water balance and dry matter production at this site. Comparison between the Compl and the Compl-L treatments shows that the increase in transpirational water use efficiency (WUET) (+63 and +80%, respectively) is mainly due to the application of NPK. Although the site is highly acid, liming was of minor importance for increasing the WUET. However, observations and simulations demonstrate that, through the additional application of lime, the gross water use efficiency (WUEC) in a maize/cowpea intercropping system can be increased by 60% compared to sole application of NPK and by more than 160% compared to the control. CR *EMBRAPA, 1981, SIST CLASS SOL 2A AP *FAO, 1988, 60 FAO MCCARTHY JJ, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, V1, P1 *USDA, USDA TECHN B, V1768 *USDA, 1990, EPIC ER PROD IMP CAL BRONSTERT A, 1995, MODELLSYSTEM HILLFLO COOPER PJM, 1987, FIELD CROP RES, V16, P67 DEBARROS I, 2002, 64 U HOH I BOD STAND ECK HV, 1988, AGRON J, V80, P902 GAISER T, 2000, AUST J SOIL RES, V38, P523 GREGORY PJ, 1988, CHALLENGES DRYLAND A, P171 GREGORY PJ, 1989, SOIL CROP WATER MANA, P85 HUNDEKAR ST, 1999, FERT NEWS, V44, P59 KLAPP E, 1962, Z KULTURTECH, V3, P1 PAPULA A, 1982, MATH CHEMIKER PAYNE WA, 1992, CROP SCI, V32, P1010 SABOYA LMF, 2002, NEOTR EC P GERM BRAZ SCHULZE E, 1957, Z ACKER PFLANZENBAU, V103, P22 SHIKLOMANOV I, 2001, INT HYDROLOGICAL SER SINCLAIR TR, 1984, BIOSCIENCE, V34, P36 SIVAKUMAR MVK, 1999, J AGR SCI 2, V132, P139 VEGH KR, 1998, ACTA AGRON HUNG, V46, P35 ZAONGO CGL, 1997, PLANT SOIL, V197, P119 NR 23 TC 3 J9 PLANT SOIL BP 165 EP 171 PY 2004 PD JUN VL 263 IS 1-2 GA 876ZK UT ISI:000225537400015 ER PT J AU Litfin, KT TI Constructing environmental security and ecological interdependence SO GLOBAL GOVERNANCE LA English DT Article C1 Univ Washington, Seattle, WA 98195 USA. RP Litfin, KT, Univ Washington, Seattle, WA 98195 USA. 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Univ E Anglia, Sch Dev Studies, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. Univ E Anglia, Tyndall Ctr Climate Change Res, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. RP Adger, WN, Univ E Anglia, Sch Environm Sci, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. 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CR 1995, ENVIRONMENT MAR, P3 *FAO, 1984, LAND FOOD PEOPL *US NAT RES COUNC, 1995, MEX CIT WAT SUPPL IM *WORLD WID FUND NA, 1996, 94 CENT WORLDS FOR U ADAMS RM, 1965, LAND BEHIND BAGHDAD AUSUBEL J, 1989, TECHNOLOGY ENV AUSUBEL J, 1996, TECHNOLOGICAL TRAJEC BROOKFIELD H, 1995, ENV SOCIOECONOMIC TR CLARK WC, 1986, SUSTAINABLE DEV BIOS COHEN J, 1994, COLLAPSE CULTURE DIS COHEN JE, 1995, MANY PEOPLE CAN EART, P419 COMMONER B, 1972, CLOSING CIRCLE NATUR DOUGLAS M, 1982, RISK CULTURE EHRLICH PR, 1971, SCIENCE, V171, P1212 EHRLICH PR, 1975, POPULATION BOMMB, P58 EZCURRA E, 1996, ENVIRONMENT, V6, P1 FABER M, 1992, ENVIRON VALUE, V1, P217 FEARNSIDE PM, 1989, ECOLOGIST, V19, P214 GLANTZ MH, 1990, SCIENCES, V20, P16 HARDIN G, 1968, SCIENCE, V162, P1243 HIGGINS GM, 1983, POTENTIAL POPULATION HOLDREN JP, 1974, AM SCIENT, V62, P282 IVES JD, 1989, HIMALAYAN DILEMMA RE KASPERSON JX, 1995, REGIONS RISK, V1, P1 KATES RW, 1985, PERILOUS PROGR MANAG KATES RW, 1996, ENVIRONMENT MAR, P6 KOCHUROV B, 1991, DEFINING MAPPING CRI, P63 KOTLYAKOV VM, 1991, ENVIRONMENT JAN, P4 MARSH GP, 1864, MAN NATURE PHYSICAL MATHER JR, 1991, GLOBAL CHANGE GEOGRA, P159 MATHEWS JT, 1993, THREATS ENEMEIES FAC, P36 MEADOWS DH, 1972, LIMITS GROWTH MEADOWS DH, 1992, LIMITS CONFRONTING G MEYER WB, 1992, ANNU REV ECOL SYST, V23, P39 MEYER WB, 1992, GEOGRAPHYS INNER WOR, P255 MEYER WB, 1996, HUMAN IMPACT EARTH, P23 MICKLIN P, 1988, SCIENCE, V241, P470 MORTIMORE MJ, 1994, ENVIRONMENT OCT, P10 MUMME SP, 1997, ENVIRONMENT DEC, P6 MYERS N, 1988, ENVIRONMENTALIST, V8, P187 MYERS N, 1995, SCIENCE, V269, P358 OPIE J, 1993, OGALLALA WATER DRY L PRICE MF, 1989, ENVIRONMENT OCT, P18 PUCHACHENKO YG, 1989, EKOSISTEMY KRITICHES RESTREPO I, 1992, CONTAMINACION AIRE M ROCKWELL RC, 1994, CHANGES LAND USE LAN, P357 SALOMONS W, 1988, POLLUTION N SEA ASSE SMITH NJH, 1995, AMAZONIA RESILIENCY SMITH S, REGIONS RISK, P42 STERN PC, 1992, GLOBAL ENV CHANGE UN SVEDIN U, 1987, SURPRISING FUTURES N THOMAS WL, 1956, MANS ROLE CHANGING F THOMPSON M, 1990, CULTURAL THEORY TIFFEN M, 1992, DEV POLICY REV, V10, P359 TIFFEN M, 1994, MORE PEOPLE LESS ERO TIFFEN M, 1995, ENVIRONMENT SEP, P3 TURNER BL, 1990, EARTH TRANSFORMED HU TURNER BL, 1990, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V1, P14 TURNER BL, 1994, AGR ENV HLTH SUSTAIN, P101 TURNER BL, 1995, ELEMENTS CHANGE 19 2, P130 WOODWELL GM, 1990, EARTH TRANSITION PAT, P211 NR 61 TC 7 J9 ENVIRONMENT BP 4 EP & PY 1996 PD DEC VL 38 IS 10 GA VW474 UT ISI:A1996VW47400003 ER PT J AU VITEK, JD BERTA, SM TI IMPROVING PERCEPTION OF AND RESPONSE TO NATURAL HAZARDS - THE NEED FOR LOCAL EDUCATION SO JOURNAL OF GEOGRAPHY LA English DT Article C1 UNIV OKLAHOMA,PHD PROGRAM,NORMAN,OK 73019. RP VITEK, JD, OKLAHOMA STATE UNIV,GRAD COLL,STILLWATER,OK 74078. CR BURTON I, 1964, NAT RESOUR J, V3, P412 BURTON I, 1978, ENV HAZARD, V1, P1 MURRAY WE, 1980, HAZARD MONTHLY, V1, P5 SAARINEN TF, 1966, 106 U CHIC DEP GEOGR, P138 SLOVIC P, 1974, NATURAL HAZARDS LOCA, P187 NR 5 TC 3 J9 J GEOGR BP 225 EP 228 PY 1982 VL 81 IS 6 GA RQ383 UT ISI:A1982RQ38300004 ER PT J AU Ramos, MC TI Soil water content and yield variability in vineyards of Mediterranean northeastern Spain affected by mechanization and climate variability SO HYDROLOGICAL PROCESSES LA English DT Article C1 Univ Lleida, Dept Soil & Environm Sci, Lleida 25198, Spain. RP Ramos, MC, Univ Lleida, Dept Soil & Environm Sci, Av Alcalde Rovira oure 191, Lleida 25198, Spain. AB The objective of this paper was to analyse the combined influence of the Mediterranean climate variability (particularly the irregular rainfall distribution throughout the year) and the land trans format ions carried out in vineyards of northeastern Spain on soil water content evolution and its influence on grape production. The study was carried out in a commercial vineyard located in the Anoia-Alt Penedes region (Barcelona province. northeastern Spain). which was prepared for mechanization with important land transformations. Two plots were selected for the study: one with low degree of transformation of the soil profile, representing a non-disturbed situation. and the second one in which more than 3 in were cut in the upper part of the plot and filled in the lower part. representing the disturbed situation. Soil water content was evaluated at three positions along the slope in each plot and at three depths (0-20, 20-40, 40-60 cm) during the period 1999-2001, years with different rainfall characteristics, including extreme events and long dry periods. Rainfall was recorded in the experimental field using a pluviometer linked to a data-logger. Runoff rates and yield were evaluated at the same positions. For the same annual rainfall, the season of the year in which rainfall is recorded and its intensity are critical for water availability for crops. Soil water content varies within the plot and is related to the soil characteristics existing at the different positions of the landscape. The differences in soil depth created by soil movements in the field mechanization give rise to significant yield reductions (up to 50%) between deeper and shallow areas. In addition, for the same annual rainfall, water availability for crops depends on its distribution over the year, particularly in soils with low water-storage capacity. The yield was strongly affected in years with dry or very dry winters. Copyright (c) 2005 John Wiley & Sons. Ltd. 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SO NATURAL HAZARDS LA English DT Article C1 Polish Acad Sci, Res Ctr Agr & Forest Environm, PL-60809 Poznan, Poland. Univ Cologne, Inst Geophys & Meteorol, D-50923 Cologne, Germany. Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res, D-14412 Potsdam, Germany. Free Univ Berlin, Inst Meteorol, D-12165 Berlin, Germany. RP Kundzewicz, ZW, Polish Acad Sci, Res Ctr Agr & Forest Environm, Bukowska 19, PL-60809 Poznan, Poland. AB In Central Europe, river flooding has been recently recognized as a major hazard, in particular after the 1997 Odra /Oder flood, the 2001 Vistula flood, and the most destructive 2002 deluge on the Labe/Elbe. Major recent floods in central Europe are put in perspective and their common elements are identified. Having observed that flood risk and vulnerability are likely to have grown in many areas, one is curious to understand the reasons for growth. These can be sought in socio-economic domain (humans encroaching into floodplain areas), terrestrial systems (land-cover changes - urbanization, deforestation, reduction of wetlands, river regulation), and climate system. The atmospheric capacity to absorb moisture, its potential water content, and thus potential for intense precipitation, are likely to increase in a warmer climate. The changes in intense precipitation and high flows are examined, based on observations and projections. Study of projected changes in intense precipitation, using climate models, for several areas of central Europe, and in particular, for drainage basins of the upper Labe/Elbe, Odra/Oder, and Vistula is reported. Significant changes have been identified between future projections and the reference period, of relevance to flood hazard in areas, which have experienced severe recent floodings. 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Univ Sao Paulo, Inst Oceanog, BR-05389900 Sao Paulo, SP, Brazil. RP Gasalla, MA, Inst Pesca, Av Bartolomeu Gusmao 192, BR-11030906 Santos, SP, Brazil. AB Ecosystem effects of recent changes in fishing strategies in the South Brazil Bight (SBB) area, including increasing squid catches by shrimp bottom trawlers and fishing for young sardines as bait, for the skipjack tuna pole-and-line fishery were investigated by modelling the SBB coastal ecosystem for the 1998-1999 fisheries period, using the mass-balance modelling software, Ecopath with Ecosim. Based on fisheries information and on previous models, 25 species groups were defined. The mean trophic level of all fisheries was 2.99 with small trawlers and the live baitfish fleet occupying the lowest trophic levels. The change in squid fishing rate and the most important squid predators fishing rate were simulated by increasing fishing mortality (F) from 0 to 1 per year, while maintaining F constant for other exploited groups. Also, the impact of fishing pressure by trawlers on squids and by the live baitfish fleet on young sardines were simulated. Different hypotheses of flow control were tested by setting the maximum instantaneous mortality rate that consumers could exert on food resources by (a) "top-down" control by predators (predator control); (b) all interactions of mixed control type; and (c) "bottom-up" control of predators by their prey (donor control). For squid, predicted biomass changes were more pronounced under top-down control that under bottom-up. Biomass of the weakfish, which are important squid predators, were the most affected under all hypotheses. A similar pattern of decrease in other squid predators was seen. The ecosystem consequence of overexploiting weakfish and large pelagic fish biomass was speculated regarding the increasing squid catches. Simulations of increasing live-baitfish fleet did not show prominent impact in the inner shelf, where present F values are low. Given young sardines concentrate in shallow waters, where the conflicts converge, a complementary model of the adjacent coastal system and artisanal fisheries could better address fleet's impact. Nevertheless, it was noted a decrease of sharks and rays reflecting their vulnerability in the system. A precautionary measure for fisheries management in the region would be to assume that top-down control is a dominant force in energy flows, differing from the custom emphasis placed only in environmental forces and productivity. The ecosystem approach will require the integration of information from a wide range of disciplines, levels of ecological organization and temporal and spatial scales, as well as concrete management measures. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 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778EM UT ISI:000189226500011 ER PT J AU Alvarez, NL NaughtonTreves, L TI Linking national agrarian policy to deforestation in the Peruvian Amazon: A case study of Tambopata, 1986-1997 SO AMBIO LA English DT Article C1 Univ Puerto Rico, Dept Biol, San Juan, PR 00931 USA. Univ Wisconsin, Dept Geog, Madison, WI 53706 USA. CI, Ctr Appl Biodivers Sci, Washington, DC USA. RP Alvarez, NL, Univ Puerto Rico, Dept Biol, POB 23360, San Juan, PR 00931 USA. AB Amazonian deforestation rates vary regionally, and ebb and flow according to macroeconomic policy and local social factors. We used remote sensing and field interviews to investigate deforestation patterns and drivers at a Peruvian frontier during 1986-1991, when rural credit and guaranteed markets were available; and 1991-1997, when structural adjustment measures were imposed. The highest rate of clearing (1.5% gross) was observed along roads during 1986-1991. Roadside deforestation slowed in 1991-1997 (0.7% gross) and extensive regrowth yielded a net increase in forest cover (0.5%). Deforestation along rivers was relatively constant. Riverside farms today retain more land in both crops and forest than do roadside farms where pasture and successional growth predominate. Long-term residents maintain more forest on their farms than do recent colonists, but proximity to urban markets is the strongest predictor of forest cover. Future credit programs must reflect spatial patterns of development and ecological vulnerability, and support the recuperation of fallow lands and secondary forest. CR *ERDAS INC, 2000, ERDAS IM *FAO, 2000, FOR RES ASS 2000 *GESUREMAD, 1998, DIAGN DEP MADR DOS G ALVAREZ N, 2001, DEFORESTATION SE PER ASCORRA C, 1999, ZONA RESERVADA TAMBO BINSWANGER H, 1989, BRAZILIAN POLICIES E BROWDER JO, 1994, STUD COMP INT DEV, V29, P45 CAMPBELL C, 1998, IFPRI WORKSH GEND IN CHICCHON A, 1994, SUBSISTENCE SYSTEM I CHICCHON A, 1997, PROBLEMA AGRARIO DEB, P551 CHICCHON A, 2000, CONSERV BIOL, V14, P138 COOMES OT, 1995, FOREST CONSERVATION, V39, P108 COOMES OT, 1996, WORLD DEV, V24, P1333 CORLETT RT, 1995, PROG PHYS GEOG, V19, P159 FOSTER R, 1994, TAMBOPATA CANDAMO RE GOMEZ R, 1998, GEOLOGIA DESARROLLO, P369 HASHIBA H, 2000, ADV SPACE RES, V26, P1069 HECHT S, IN PRESS WORLD DEV HECHT S, 1989, FATE FOREST IMBERNON J, 1999, AMBIO, V28, P509 LABARTHE H, 1990, SYSTEM SUSTAINABLE D LAURANCE WF, 2001, SCIENCE, V291, P438 MORAN EF, 1994, BIOSCIENCE, V44, P329 NAUGHTONTREVES L, 2002, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V92, P488 RICALDE D, 1993, PERUVIAN CASTANEROS RODRIGUEZ LO, 2000, AMBIO, V29, P329 SCHMINK M, 1992, CONSTESTED FRONTIERS SKOLE D, 1993, SCIENCE, V260, P1905 SKOLE DL, 1994, BIOSCIENCE, V44, P314 SMITH JB, 2001, WORLD FORESTS MARKET STEININGER MK, IN PRESS LARGE SCALE STEININGER MK, 2001, ENVIRON CONSERV, V28, P127 VARCARCEL M, 1993, MADRE DIOS ESPACIO F WOOD C, 1998, PEOPLE PIXELS LINKIN WOODWELL GM, 1991, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V19, P245 NR 35 TC 1 J9 AMBIO BP 269 EP 274 PY 2003 PD JUN VL 32 IS 4 GA 709WQ UT ISI:000184649900005 ER PT J AU Harden, CP TI Human impacts on headwater fluvial systems in the northern and central Andes SO GEOMORPHOLOGY LA English DT Article C1 Univ Tennessee, Dept Geog, Knoxville, TN 37996 USA. RP Harden, CP, Univ Tennessee, Dept Geog, 304 Burchfiel Geog Bldg, Knoxville, TN 37996 USA. AB South America delivers more freshwater runoff to the ocean per km(2) land area than any other continent, and much of that water enters the fluvial system from headwaters in the Andes Mountains. This paper reviews ways in which human occupation of high mountain landscapes in the Andes have affected the delivery of water and sediment to headwater river channels at local to regional scales for millennia, and provides special focus on the vulnerability of paramo soils to human impact. People have intentionally altered the fluvial system by damming rivers at a few strategic locations, and more widely by withdrawing surface water, primarily for irrigation. Unintended changes brought about by human activities are even more widespread and include forest clearance, agriculture, grazing, road construction, and urbanization, which increase rates of rainfall runoff and accelerate processes of water erosion. Some excavations deliver more sediment to river channels by destabilizing slopes and triggering processes of mass-movement. The northern and central Andes are more affected by human activity than most high mountain regions. The wetter northern Andes are also unusual for the very high water retention characteristics of paramo (high elevation grass and shrub) soils, which cover most of the land above 3000 m. Paramo soils are important regulators of headwater hydrology, but human activities that promote vegetation loss and drying cause them to lose water storage capacity. New data from a case study in southern Ecuador show very low bulk densities (median 0.26 g cm(-3)), high organic matter contents (median 43%), and high water-holding capacities (12% to 86% volumetrically). These data document wetter soils under grass than under tree cover. Effects of human activity on the fluvial system are evident at local scales, but difficult to discern at broader scales in the regional context of geomorphic adjustment to tectonic and volcanic processes. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. 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Columbia Univ, NASA, Goddard Inst Space Studies, New York, NY USA. RP Solecki, WD, CUNY Hunter Coll, Dept Geog, 695 Pk Ave, New York, NY 10021 USA. AB The objectives of this article were to assess the dimensions of biodiversity-urban society interactions within the New York Metropolitan Region, a 31-county area with a population of 21.5 million, and to explore pathways to reconcile dysfunctional relationships between these two ever-entwined systems. The article builds on the premise that urban biodiversity exists at a crucial nexus of ecological and societal interactions, linking local, regional, and global scales, and that urban ecologies are projected to become even more dynamic in the future, particularly as a result of global climate change. The pathway proposed to reconcile the biodiversity-urban society relationships is the incorporation of biosphere reserve strategies into regional environmental planning efforts focused on the New York/New Jersey Harbor/Estuary specifically and on the greater New York Metropolitan Region in general. The concepts of the "ecological footprint" and vulnerability to global environmental change are used to analyze the current interactions between biodiversity and urban society, and to evaluate the efficacy of adopting biosphere reserve strategies in the region. New York has long been at the forefront of American environmentalism and landscape planning. Coupled with this history is a still small but growing interest in regional environmental planning efforts (e.g., the U.S. EPA Harbor Estuary Program) and green infrastructure (e.g., the 2002 Humane Metropolis Conference organized by the Ecological Cities Project). The research presented here aims to contribute to these nascent activities. As a megacity, New York may serve as a model for other major cities of the world. CR *ASP GLOB CHANG I, 2001, CLIM CHANG CIT *BOARD SUST DEV PO, 1999, OUR COMM JOURN TRANS *HYDR INC, 1991, ASS POLL LOAD NY NJ *IND BUDG OFF NEW, 2001, BACKGR PAP OV WAST S *NEW YORK NEW JERS, 2001, NEW YORK NEW JERS HA *UN CTR HUM SETTL, 2001, CIT GLOB WORLD GLOB *UN POP FND, 2001, STAT WORLD POP 2001 *UNESCO, 1996, BIOSPH RES SEV STRAT *US CENS BUR, 2000, US CENS POP BENNETT M, 1994, NATURE CITIES ECOCRI FOLKE C, 1997, AMBIO, V26, P167 FREI A, 2002, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V92, P203 GORNITZ V, 1995, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V31, P515 GORNITZ V, 1995, J COASTAL RES, V17, P287 GORNITZ V, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE GLOBA GUNDERSON LH, 1995, BARRIERS BRIDGES REN, V1, P1 HARTIG E, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE GLOBA HARTIG EK, 2002, WETLANDS, V22, P1 HAUGHTON G, 1994, SUSTAINABLE CITIES JACOB KH, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE GLOBA MAJOR D, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE GLOBA PLATT R, 1994, ECOLOGICAL CITY PRES REES WE, 1992, ENVIRON URBAN, V4, P121 ROSENZWEIG C, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE GLOBA WALDMAN J, 1999, HEARTBEATS MUCK DRAM WARF B, 2000, GEOFORUM, V31, P487 WILSON EO, 1997, BIODIVERSITY, V2, P1 YARO R, 1996, REGION RISK 3 REGION ZIMMERMAN R, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE GLOBA NR 29 TC 1 J9 ANN N Y ACAD SCI BP 105 EP 124 PY 2004 VL 1023 GA BAN79 UT ISI:000223006800006 ER PT J AU Christensen, L Coughenour, MB Ellis, JE Chen, ZZ TI Vulnerability of the Asian typical steppe to grazing and climate change SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 Stanford Univ, Ctr Environm Sci & Policy, Stanford, CA 94305 USA. Colorado State Univ, Nat Resource Ecol Lab, Ft Collins, CO 80523 USA. Chinese Acad Sci, Ecol Res Ctr, Inst Bot, Beijing 100093, Peoples R China. RP Christensen, L, Stanford Univ, Ctr Environm Sci & Policy, Stanford, CA 94305 USA. AB The vulnerability of grassland vegetation in Inner Mongolia to climate change and grazing was examined using an ecosystem model. Grazing is an important form of land use in this region, yet there are uncertainties as to how it will be affected by climate change. A sensitivity analysis was conducted to study the effects of increased minimum and maximum temperatures, ambient and elevated CO2, increased or decreased precipitation, and grazing on vegetation production. Simulations showed that herbaceous above ground net primary production was most sensitive to changes in precipitation levels. Combinations of increased precipitation, temperature, and CO2 had synergistic effects on herbaceous production, however drastic increases in these climate scenarios left the system vulnerable to shifts from herbaceous to shrub-dominated vegetation when grazed. Reduced precipitation had a negative effect on vegetation growth rates, thus herbaceous growth was not sustainable with moderate grazing. Shifts in temporal biomass patterns due to changed climate have potentially significant implications for grazing management, which will need to be altered under changing climate to maintain system stability. 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Natl Ctr Atmospher Res, Environm & Societal Impacts Grp, Boulder, CO 80307 USA. No Illinois Univ, Dept Geog, De Kalb, IL 60115 USA. Univ Delaware, Dept Polit Sci, Newark, DE USA. NOAA, Off Global Programs, Silver Springs, MD USA. RP Changnon, SA, Illinois State Water Survey, Atmospher Environm Sect, 2204 Griffith Dr, Champaign, IL 61820 USA. AB Societal impacts from weather and climate extremes, and trends in those impacts, are a function of both climate and society. United States losses resulting from weather extremes have grown steadily with time. Insured property losses have trebled since 1960, but deaths from extremes have not grown except for those due to floods and heat waves. Data on losses are difficult to find and must be carefully adjusted before meaningful assessments can be made. Adjustments to historical loss data assembled since the late 1940s shows that most of the upward trends found in financial losses are due to societal shifts leading to ever-growing vulnerability to weather and climate extremes. Geographical locations of the large loss trends establish that population growth and demographic shifts are the major factors behind the increasing losses from weather-climate extremes. Most weather and climate extremes in the United States do not exhibit steady, multidecadal increases found in their loss values. Without major changes in societal responses to weather and climate extremes, it is reasonable to predict ever-increasing losses even without any detrimental climate changes. Recognition of these trends in societal vulnerability to weather-climate extremes suggests that the present focus on mitigating the greenhouse effect should be complemented by a greater emphasis on adaptation. Identifying and understanding this societal vulnerability has great importance for understanding the nation's economy, in guiding governmental policies, and for planning for future mitigative activities including ways for society to adapt to possible effects of a changing climate. CR *AM INS ASS, 1999, PROP CAS INS CLIM CH *BIP TASK FORC FUN, 1996, 1044 BIP TASK FORC F *CACNH, 1999, COSTS NAT DIS FRAM A *HEINZ STUD GROUP, 1999, HIDD COSTS COAST HAZ *IPCC, 1996, CLIM CHANG 1995 SCI CHANGNON D, 1997, J APPL METEOROL, V36, P1202 CHANGNON D, 1998, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V38, P435 CHANGNON SA, 1995, PREPARING GLOBAL CHA, P47 CHANGNON SA, 1996, B AM METEOROL SOC, V77, P1497 CHANGNON SA, 1996, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V32, P411 CHANGNON SA, 1996, GREAT FLOOD 1993, P3 CHANGNON SA, 1997, B AM METEOROL SOC, V78, P425 CHANGNON SA, 1997, P WORKSH SOC EC IMP, P19 CHANGNON SA, 1999, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V42, P51 CHANGNON SA, 1999, METEOR APPL, V5, P125 CHANGNON SA, 1999, NAT HAZARDS, V18, P287 FLAVIN C, 1994, WORLD WATCH, V7, P10 KARL TR, 1998, B AM METEOROL SOC, V79, P231 KUNKEL KE, 1999, B AM METEOROL SOC, V80, P1077 KUNREUTHER H, 1998, PAYING PRICE, P1 LARSON E, 1998, TIME, V52, P63 LECOMTE E, 1993, CLIMATE CHANGE INSUR, P13 PIELKE RA, 1995, HURRICANE ANDREW S F PIELKE RA, 1997, P WORKSH SOC EC IMP, P3 PIELKE RA, 1998, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V8, P159 PIELKE RA, 1998, WEATHER FORECAST 2, V13, P621 PIELKE RA, 1999, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V42, P118 PIELKE RA, 1999, FLOODS RIEBSAME WE, 1991, DROUGHT NATURAL RESO ROTH RJ, 1996, IMPACTS RESPONSES WE, P101 SYLVES R, 1996, DISASTER MANAGEMENT SYLVES R, 1998, DISASTERS COASTAL ZO VANDERVINK G, 1998, EOS, V79, P536 NR 33 TC 14 J9 BULL AMER METEOROL SOC BP 437 EP 442 PY 2000 PD MAR VL 81 IS 3 GA 305EB UT ISI:000086525500004 ER PT J AU Magadza, CHD TI Climate change impacts and human settlements in Africa: Prospects for adaptation SO ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING AND ASSESSMENT LA English DT Article C1 Univ Zimbabwe, Lake Kariba Res Stn, Kariba, Zimbabwe. RP Magadza, CHD, Univ Zimbabwe, Lake Kariba Res Stn, Box 48, Kariba, Zimbabwe. AB Climate change impacts on African human settlements arise from a number of climate change-related causes, notably sea level changes, impacts on water resources, extreme weather events, food security, increased health risks from vector borne diseases, and temperature-related morbidity in urban environments. Some coastlines and river deltas of Africa have densely populated low-lying areas, which would be affected by a rise in sea level. Other coastal settlements will be subjected to increased coastal erosion. Recent flooding in East Africa highlighted the vulnerability of flood plain settlements and the need to develop adaptive strategies for extreme weather events management and mitigation. In the semi arid and arid zones many settlements are associated with inland drainage water sources. Increases in drought will enhance water supply related vulnerabilities. Inter-basin and international water transfers raise the need for adequate legal frameworks that ensure equity among participating nations. Similarly, water supply and irrigation reservoirs in seasonal river catchments might fail, leading to poor sanitation in urban areas as well as food shortage. Hydroelectric power generation could be restricted in drought periods, and where it is a major contributor to the energy budget, reduced power generation could lead to a multiplicity of other impacts. States are advised to develop other sources of renewable energy. Temperature changes will lead to altered distribution of disease vectors such as mosquitoes, making settlements currently free of vector borne diseases vulnerable. Rapid breeding of the housefly could create a menace associated with enteric disorders, especially in conditions of poor sanitation. The dry savannahs of Africa are projected as possible future food deficit areas. Recurrent crop failures would lead to transmigration into urban areas. Pastoralists are likely to undertake more trans-boundary migrations and probably come into conflict with settled communities. Adaptive measures will involve methods of coastal defences (where applicable), a critical review of the energy sector, both regionally and nationally, a rigorous adherence to city hygiene procedures, an informed agricultural industry that is capable of adapting to changing climate in terms of cropping strategies, and innovations in environment design to maximise human comfort at minimum energy expenditure. In the savannah and arid areas water resource management systems will be needed to optimise water resource use and interstate co-operation where such resources are shared. Climate change issues discussed here raise the need for state support for more research and education in impacts of climate change on human settlements in Africa. CR 1992, SPORE, V39, P1 1997, MICROSOFT ENCARTER 7 CAPONERA DA, 1996, REV EUROPEAN COMMUNI, V5, P97 COUSINS B, 1996, IDS BULL-I DEV STUD, V27, P41 DELATTRE A, 1988, OECD OBSERVER, V153, P19 HULME M, 1995, CLIMATE CHANGE SO AF JALLOW BP, 1996, CLIMATE RES, V6 LADO C, 1995, INDONESIAN J GEOGRAP, V27, P31 MAGADZA CHD, 1984, ZIMBABWE SCI NEWS, V18, P63 MAGADZA CHD, 1994, FOOD POLICY, V19, P165 MAGADZA CHD, 1996, LAKE RESERVOIR RES M, V2, P89 MCMICHAEL AJ, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE HUMAN MIMURA N, 1998, GLOBAL WARMING POTEN REIBSAME WE, 1995, CLIMATE CHANGES INT SALAM AM, 1991, SCI TECHNOLOGY SCI E STRZEPEK KK, 1996, CLIMATE RES, V6 WATSON RT, 1998, REGIONAL IMPACTS CLI, V1, P1 WORLD B, 1996, ENV SUSTAINABLE DEV NR 18 TC 1 J9 ENVIRON MONIT ASSESS BP 193 EP 205 PY 2000 PD MAR VL 61 IS 1 GA 300UB UT ISI:000086270100016 ER PT J AU Kasperson, RE Kasperson, JX Turner, BL TI Risk and criticality: Trajectories of regional environmental degradation SO AMBIO LA English DT Article C1 Clark Univ, George Perkins Marsh Inst, Worcester, MA 01610 USA. RP Kasperson, RE, Clark Univ, George Perkins Marsh Inst, 950 Main St, Worcester, MA 01610 USA. AB In its 1987 report, the World Commission on Environment and Development called for a global risk-assessment program to buttress and extend the work of the United Nations Environment Programme. This article reports on an international project centered at Clark University in the United States that has explored the causes and consequences of growing environmental risk over a 50-70 year period in nine regions distributed throughout the world. The nine regions are: Amazonia, the Eastern Sundaland region of southeast Asia, the Ukambani region of southeastern Kenya, the Nepal Middle Mountains, the Ordos Plateau of China, the Aral Sea, the southern High Plains of the United States, the Mexico City region, and the North Sea. The authors begin by considering the notion of criticality and developing definitions and a classification of environmentally threatened regions. Research teams were assembled for all nine regions and studies conducted. In this article, the authors review the development of concepts and methods used in these studies and the major cross-cutting findings that emerged. They argue that a growing disjuncture exists in the studied regions between the rapid rates of environmental degradation and the slow pace of societal response, threatening environmental impoverishment and loss of options for future generations and escalating costs of substitution in resource use and risk mitigation efforts. CR *NAT GEOGR SOC, 1989, END EARTH *WORLD COMM ENV DE, 1987, OUR COMM FUT, P325 AGUILAR AG, 1995, REGIONS RISK COMP TH, P304 ARGENT J, REGIONS RISK COMP TH, P367 BLAIKIE PM, 1987, LAND DEGRADATION SOC BROOKFIELD H, 1995, PLACE FOREST ENV SOC BROOKS E, 1995, REGIONS RISK COMP TH, P255 BROOKS E, 1999, LLANO ESTACADO US SO CHAMBERS R, 1989, FARMER 1 FARMER INNO EHRLICH PR, 1971, SCIENCE, V171, P1212 EZCURRA E, 1999, BASIN MEXICO CRITICA FUCHS R, 1999, 199 IHDP, P2 GLAZOVSKY NF, 1995, REGIONS RISK COMP TH, P92 GLEICK PH, 1998, WORLDS WATER 1988 19 HOLDREN JP, 1974, AM SCIENT, V62, P282 JIANG H, 1995, REGIONS RISK COMP TH, P420 JIANG H, 1999, IN PRESS ORDOS PLATE JODHA NS, 1995, REGIONS RISK COMP TH, P140 KASPERSON JX, IN PRESS GLOBAL ENV KASPERSON JX, 1995, REGIONS RISK, V1, P1 KASPERSON RE, 1991, ACCEPTABLE EVIDENCE, P9 KATES RW, 1985, PERILOUS PROGR MANAG KATES RW, 1996, ENVIRONMENT, V38, P28 KATES RW, 1996, ENVIRONMENT, V38, P6 MATHER JR, 1991, GLOBAL CHANGE GEOGRA, P159 MEADOWS DH, 1972, LIMITS GROWTH REPORT MEADOWS DH, 1992, LIMITS CONFRONTING G MYERS N, 1988, ENVIRONMENTALIST, V8, P187 NEPSTAD DC, 1999, NATURE, V398, P505 PEZZOLI K, 1998, HUMAN SETTLEMENTS PL POTTER L, 1995, REGIONS RISK COMP TH, P460 PUCHACHENKO YG, 1989, EKOYSTEMY V KRITICHE RASKIN P, 1966, POLESTAR SERIES REPO, V1 ROCHELEAU D, 1995, REGIONS RISK COMP TH, P186 SCHNEIDER SH, 1998, J RISK RES, V1, P165 SCOONES I, 1994, FARMER 1 RURAL PEOPL SMITH JJH, 1995, REGIONS RISK COMP TH, P42 SMITH NJH, 1995, AMAZONIA RESILIENCY SVEDIN U, 1987, SURPRISING FUTURES N TIFFEN M, 1994, MORE PEOPLE LESS ERO TURNER BL, 1990, EARTH TRANSFORMED HU TURNER BL, 1990, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V1, P14 WATSON RT, 1998, REGIONAL IMPACTS CLI, V1, P1 NR 43 TC 4 J9 AMBIO BP 562 EP 568 PY 1999 PD SEP VL 28 IS 6 GA 258WP UT ISI:000083862900020 ER PT J AU Shepherd, TD Myers, RA TI Direct and indirect fishery effects on small coastal elasmobranchs in the northern Gulf of Mexico SO ECOLOGY LETTERS LA English DT Article C1 Dalhousie Univ, Dept Biol, Halifax, NS B3H 4J1, Canada. RP Shepherd, TD, Dalhousie Univ, Dept Biol, Halifax, NS B3H 4J1, Canada. AB Globally, bycatch in tropical/subtropical shrimp trawl and longline fisheries is threatening many marine species. Here we examine the joint effects of increased mortality caused by shrimp trawling bycatch, and reduced predation caused by losses of large sharks because of longline fishing. Research surveys in the Gulf of Mexico (1972-2002) demonstrated precipitous declines in shallow water coastal elasmobranchs where shrimping effort was highest (bonnethead 96%, Bancroft's numbfish (lesser electric ray) 98%, smooth butterfly ray > 99%) and consistent increases in deeper water elasmobranchs (Atlantic angel shark, smooth dogfish). These increases are the first empirical support for predation release caused by the loss of large sharks, which have been theorized to structure tropical/subtropical marine ecosystems. Bycatch of elasmobranchs in shrimp trawls is a critical conservation concern which is not solved by present mitigation measures; similar loss of elasmobranchs is expected to be occurring in tropical/subtropical regions worldwide where ever intensive shrimp trawling occurs. CR *NMFS, 2000, STAT REV SMALLT SAWF *OC STUD BOARD, 2002, EFF TRAWL DREDG SEAF ALVERSON DL, 1994, 339 FAO ANDERSON R, 2001, NETW COMPUT, V12, P14 BASCOMPTE J, 2005, P NATL ACAD SCI USA, V102, P5443 BAUM JK, 2003, SCIENCE, V299, P389 BAUM JK, 2004, ECOL LETT, V7, P135 BURGESS GH, 2003, RENEWAL OBSERVER PRO CAILLIET GM, 1992, AUST J MAR FRESH RES, V43, P1313 CARPENTER KE, 2002, LIVING MARINE RESOUR, V1 CEDROLA PV, 2005, FISH RES, V71, P141 CLARK E, 1965, B MAR SCI, V15, P13 COMPAGNO LJV, 1984, FAO SPECIES CATALOGU, V4 CONRATH CL, 2002, FISH B-NOAA, V100, P674 CORTES E, 1999, ICES J MAR SCI, V56, P707 CORTES E, 2002, CONSERV BIOL, V16, P1048 CORTES E, 2002, SFD0102152 SE FISH S CORTES E, 2002, SFD0203177 SE FISH S DAAN N, 2005, ICES J MAR SCI, V62, P177 DECARVALHO MR, 1999, THESIS CITY U NEW YO DELMONTELUNA P, 2003, POPUL ECOL, V45, P257 DULVY NK, 2002, CONSERV BIOL, V16, P440 DULVY NK, 2003, FISH FISH, V4, P25 ESTES JA, 1998, SCIENCE, V282, P473 FOGARTY MJ, 1998, ECOL APPL, V8, P6 GALLAWAY BJ, 1999, N AM J FISH MANAGE, V19, P342 JENNINGS S, 1998, ADV MAR BIOL, V34, P201 JENNINGS S, 1999, CONSERV BIOL, V13, P1466 KITCHELL JF, 2002, ECOSYSTEMS, V5, P202 MARTINEZ EX, 1993, GALVESTON BAY NATL E MCDANIEL CJ, 2000, CONSERV ECOL, V4, P1 MYERS RA, 2003, NATURE, V423, P280 NORMAND SLT, 1999, STAT MED, V18, P321 PACE ML, 1999, TRENDS ECOL EVOL, V14, P483 POWELL SW, 2003, J NW ATL FISH SCI, V31, P19 RABALAIS NN, 2002, ANNU REV ECOL SYST, V33, P235 ROBERTS CM, 1999, TRENDS ECOL EVOL, V14, P241 SCHMIED RL, 1995, COOPERATIVE RES PROG SIMPFENDORFER CA, 2000, ENVIRON BIOL FISH, V58, P371 SMITH SE, 1998, MAR FRESHWATER RES, V49, P663 SOULE ME, 2005, BIOSCIENCE, V55, P168 SPRINGER S, 1967, SHARKS SKATES RAYS STEELE P, 2002, FISH B-NOAA, V100, P338 STEVENS JD, 2000, ICES J MAR SCI, V57, P476 STOBUTZKI IC, 2002, FISH B-NOAA, V100, P800 STRONG DR, 1992, ECOLOGY, V73, P747 VERITY PG, 1996, MAR ECOL-PROG SER, V130, P277 WARD P, 2005, ECOLOGY, V86, P835 WORM B, 2003, ECOLOGY, V84, P162 NR 49 TC 5 J9 ECOL LETT BP 1095 EP 1104 PY 2005 PD OCT VL 8 IS 10 GA 962MP UT ISI:000231737200009 ER PT J AU Chiara, JP Cruz, G TI Preliminary results from the implementation of the SPUR2 model in Uruguay SO CLIMATE RESEARCH LA English DT Article C1 Univ Republica, Fac Agron, Catedra Agrometeorol, Montevideo, Uruguay. RP Chiara, JP, Univ Republica, Fac Agron, Catedra Agrometeorol, Avda Garzon 780, Montevideo, Uruguay. AB Results from the first attempt at implementing the SPUR2 (Simulation of Production and Utilization of Rangelands) simulation model under the specific conditions of a deep soil on basalt rock in Uruguay are presented. The study area was selected because it represents a large portion of Uruguayan land (21%) almost exclusively oriented to cattle production; due to the variety of soil types in this region it was possible to analyze contrasting situations regarding vulnerability to the occurrence of extreme climatic events-such as droughts-and to potential climate changes. The information used, which included soil texture, organic matter content and hydrologic characteristics, corresponded to a representative soil of the Itapebi Tres Arboles unit. The weather data used were daily records for precipitation, as well as air temperature, solar radiation and wind run data simulated with a climate generator program. The model was run for the 1961-1990 period under normal (present day) carbon dioxide concentration conditions. The analysis focussed particularly on the SPUR2 outputs of the hydrology and plant submodels. Biomass production simulations showed a good representation of reality with regard to annual production. However, they differed from the actual data available for this area with regard to the seasonal distribution of forage. The results of the hydrology submodel significantly departed from the expected values. Potential evapotranspiration reached monthly Values 148% above normal (observed), which could be partly explained by the fact that the global solar radiation estimates were higher than the real values. CR 1994, US COUNTRY STUDIES P BERRETTA EJ, 1994, PASTURAS PRODUCCION BOSHELL JF, 1982, PUBLICACION, V50 CARAMBULA M, 1991, SERIE TECNICA, V19 CREMPIEN C, 1983, ANTECEDENTES TECNICO DESOUZA PJ, 1985, RESUMENES PRIMER SEM GONNET M, 1981, INVESTI AGRON, V2 MEIRELLES M, 1988, THESIS U REPUBLICA M ROSENGURTT B, 1979, TABLAS COMPORTAMIENT WIGHT JR, 1987, SPUR SIMULATION PROD ZUNINO R, 1988, THESIS U REPUBLICA M NR 11 TC 1 J9 CLIMATE RES BP 9 EP 15 PY 1997 PD DEC 29 VL 9 IS 1-2 GA ZD200 UT ISI:000072661400003 ER PT J AU Pethick, JS Crooks, S TI Development of a coastal vulnerability index: a geomorphological perspective SO ENVIRONMENTAL CONSERVATION LA English DT Article C1 Univ Newcastle, Dept Marine Sci & Coastal Management, Newcastle Upon Tyne NE1 7RU, Tyne & Wear, England. Univ E Anglia, Jackson Environm Inst, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. Univ E Anglia, CSERGE, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England. RP Crooks, S, Univ Newcastle, Dept Marine Sci & Coastal Management, Newcastle Upon Tyne NE1 7RU, Tyne & Wear, England. AB Sustainable coastal resource management requires the safeguarding and transmission to future generations of a level and quality of natural resources that will provide an ongoing yield of economic and environmental services. All maritime nations are approaching this goal with different issues in mind. The UK, which has a long history of development and flood protection in coastal areas, has chosen to adopt shoreline management, rather than coastal management, so placing coastal defence above all else as its primary and statutory objective. This paper aims to provide a geomorphological perspective of long-term coastal evolution and seeks to compare the UK approach with wider interpretations of coastal management. Based on a literature review, it is argued that coastal management (CM) and shoreline management, as a subset of CM, should share the same ultimate objectives, which are defined by many authorities as sustainable use. The objectives, both strategic and pragmatic, which follow from such an aim may appear to conflict with a reading of many of the texts for international and national CM or designated area management which emphasizes stability rather than sustainability. The result is that coastal defence is seen not merely as a means to an end but as an end in itself. It is argued within this paper that sustainable use of the coast, however, demands both spatial and temporal flexibility of its component systems, and management for change must therefore be the primary objective. Response of the natural system to independent forcing factors must be encouraged under this objective, whether such forces are natural or anthropogenic. In achieving such an objective the concept of shoreline vulnerability may prove useful. A simple and preliminary Vulnerability Index is proposed, relating disturbance event frequency to relaxation time (the time taken for the coastal feature to recover its form). This index provides a first order approximation of the temporal variability that may be expected in landform components of the shoreline system, so allowing management to provide more realistic objectives for long-term sustainability in response to both natural and artificial forces. CR *DOE, 1993, MAN COAST REV COAST *FAO, 1992, SUST DEV ENV *IPCC CZMS, 1992, GLOB CLIM CHANG RIS *IPCC, 1996, 2 ASS REP SCI CLIM C *MAFF, 1993, PB1471 MIN AGR FISH *OECD, 1997, OECD POL APPR 21 CEN *UN, 1992, UN PUBLICATION *WCED, 1987, OUR COMM FUT ADGER WN, 1999, WORLD DEV, V27, P249 BARNE JH, 1996, COASTS SEAS UK REGIO BASCOM WH, 1954, P 14 C COAST ENG, P163 BIRD ECF, 1985, COASTAL CHANGES GLOB BOWER BT, 1998, OCEAN COAST MANAGE, V38, P41 BRUNSDEN D, 1996, ADV HILLSLOPE PROCES, V2, P869 CAPOBIANCO M, 1999, J COASTAL RES, V15, P701 CARPENTER K, 1996, W12 ENV AG R D FDN W CARTER RWG, 1988, COASTAL ENV INTRO PH COOPER NJ, 2000, J CHART INST WATER E, V14, P79 CROOKS S, 1999, ADV ECOL RES, V29, P241 DEBOER G, 1988, DYNAMIC EATUARY MAN, P16 FORBES DL, 1995, MAR GEOL, V126, P63 GUNTON A, 1997, J COASTAL RES, V13, P813 INGLIS CC, 1958, P I CIVIL ENG, V9, P193 KNIGHTON D, 1998, FLUVIAL FORMS PROCES LY CK, 1980, MAR GEOL, V37, P323 METCALFE SE, 2000, GEOLOGICAL SOC SPECI, V166, P97 MOON VG, 1994, J COASTAL RES, V10, P663 OCONNOR BA, 1987, J GEOL SOC LONDON, V144, P187 ORFORD JD, 1995, EARTH SURF PROCESSES, V20, P21 ORFORD JD, 1999, Z GEOMORPHOL, V43, P439 ORIORDAN T, 1995, ENV SCI ENV MAN PEARCE DW, 1993, WORLD END EC ENV SUS PETHICK JS, 1992, SALTMARSHES MORPHODY, P41 PETHICK JS, 1996, ESTUARINE SHORES EVO, P185 PRICE WA, 1963, P I CIVIL ENG, V24, P473 RAMSAR, 1971, CONV WETL INT IMP ES RICHIE W, 1990, COASTAL DUNES, P105 STANLEY DJ, 1993, SCIENCE, V260, P624 TOWNEND IH, 1990, INT NAVIGATION ASS P, V71, P72 TURNER RK, 1993, SUSTAINABLE ENV EC M VILES H, 1995, COASTAL PROBLEMS GEO NR 41 TC 2 J9 ENVIRON CONSERV BP 359 EP 367 PY 2000 PD DEC VL 27 IS 4 GA 418BT UT ISI:000167870400006 ER PT J AU Frei, A Armstrong, RL Clark, MP Serreze, MC TI Catskill mountain water resources: Vulnerability, hydroclimatology, and climate-change sensitivity SO ANNALS OF THE ASSOCIATION OF AMERICAN GEOGRAPHERS LA English DT Article C1 CUNY Hunter Coll, Dept Geog, New York, NY 10021 USA. Univ Colorado, Natl Snow & Ice Data Ctr, NISDC, CIRES, Boulder, CO 80309 USA. RP Frei, A, CUNY Hunter Coll, Dept Geog, New York, NY 10021 USA. AB We present an initial assessment of the potential impact of climate change on water supply in the Metropolitan East Coast (MEC) region of the U.S. National Assessment of the Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change. A version of the Thornthwaite water-balance model is applied to one of six basins in the Catskill Mountains that together provide water for approximately 10 million people in New York City and other municipalities. In addition to Thornthwaite's original soil moisture reservoir, the model includes the snow pack water reservoir of Willmott, Rowe, and Mintz (1985), a ground-water storage term, and several additional modifications. Following a review of the vulnerability of water supplies and historical hydroclimatology of this region, we estimate (1) the sensitivity of water supply to altered temperature and precipitation regimes and (2) the potential impacts of specific climate-change scenarios used by national and regional climate,change assessments. The sensitivity of runoff to temperature changes is approximately 6 percent per degree C; its sensitivity to precipitation changes is approximately 1.5-2 percent per percent change in precipitation, for annual mean values. Under all scenarios, rising temperatures will lead to significantly diminished water supplies unless precipitation increases dramatically. Due to disagreement between precipitation projections from different models and scenarios, projected changes in mean annual water supply range from approximately +10 percent to -30 percent by the 2080s. Under the driest scenario, water supplies under mean climatic conditions will be comparable to the worst extended drought period of the twentieth century in this region. Equally important are the likely effects on the annual cycle, which include an earlier peak runoff and a reduction of the snowpack by at least 50 percent. Considered in the context of likely increased demands, these changes may be significant. CR *IPCC, 2002, IPCC DAT DISTR CTR *NRC, 2000, WAT MAN POT WAT SUPP *NY CIT DEP ENV PR, 2001, DROUGHT WATCH DECL N *US NAT ASS, 2002, POT CONS CLIM VAR CH *USGS EARTH RES OB, 2001, USGS EARTH RES OBS S ALLEY WM, 1984, WATER RESOUR RES, V20, P1137 ANDERSSON L, 1992, NORD HYDROL, V23, P315 ARNELL NW, 1996, GLOBAL WARMING RIVER BROCCOLI AJ, 1996, ANN NY ACAD SCI, V790, P19 BURNS DA, 1998, EOS T AM GEOPHYS UN, V79, P197 COHEN SJ, 1989, 899 ATM ENV SERV CAN DIAZ HF, 1983, J CLIM APPL METEOROL, V22, P352 DOESKEN NJ, 1997, SNOW BOOKLET GUIDE S DOUGLAS AV, 1982, MON WEATHER REV, V110, P1851 FEDERER CA, 1996, WATER RESOUR RES, V32, P2315 GALUSHA D, 1999, LIQUID ASSETS HIST N GLEICK PH, 2001, ENVIRONMENT, V43, P18 GOLDSTEIN EA, 1990, NY ENV BOOK GROISMAN PY, 1994, B AM METEOROL SOC, V75, P215 GROOPMAN A, 1967, J AM WATER WORKS ASS, V60, P37 HENDRICK RL, 1976, J APPL METEOROL, V15, P717 HILL D, 1996, BAKED APPLE METROPOL JAKEMAN AJ, 1993, WATER RESOUR RES, V29, P2637 JUDSON A, 2000, B AM METEOROL SOC, V81, P1577 KARL TR, 1983, J CLIM APPL METEOROL, V22, P1356 KERR RA, 2000, SCIENCE, V288, P2113 KUSTAS WP, 1994, WATER RESOUR RES, V30, P1515 LEFFLER RJ, 1981, J APPL METEOROL, V20, P637 LEGATES DR, 1992, GEOGR REV, V82, P253 LEGATES DR, 1993, WATER RESOUR BULL, V29, P855 LETTENMAIER DP, 1999, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V43, P537 LINDSTROM G, 1997, J HYDROL, V201, P272 LOCKWOOD JG, 1999, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V41, P193 MAJOR DC, 1993, P 1 NAT C CLIM CHANG MARTIN M, 1999, J CLIMATE, V12, P3359 MARX R, 1993, WATER RESOURCES B, V7, P474 MATHER JR, 1985, PUBLICATIONS CLIMATO, V38 MCCABE GJ, 1989, WATER RESOUR BULL, V25, P1231 MILLY PCD, 1994, WATER RESOUR RES, V30, P2143 MINTZ Y, 1992, CLIM DYNAM, V8, P13 MINTZ Y, 1993, J APPL METEOROL, V32, P1305 MULLER RA, 1969, P ASS AM GEOGR, V1, P121 MULLER RA, 1981, ENV CHINESE AM VIEWS, P171 MULLER RA, 2000, ANN M ASS AM GEOGR NAMIAS J, 1966, MON WEA REV, V94, P543 NAMIAS J, 1978, MON WEATHER REV, V106, P279 PLATT RH, 2000, ENVIRONMENT, V42, P8 ROSENZWEIG C, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE GLOBA ROSENZWEIG C, 2001, ENVIRONMENT, V43, P8 SLACK JRS, 1993, HYDROCLIMATIC DATA N THALER JS, 1989, NE ENV SCI, V8, P106 THALER JS, 1994, NE GEOLOGY, V16, P162 THALER JS, 1996, CATSKILL WEATHER THORNTHWAITE CW, 1948, GEOGR REV, V38, P55 THORNTHWAITE CW, 1955, PUBLICATIONS CLIMATO, V8, P1 THORNTHWAITE CW, 1957, PUBLICATIONS CLIMATO, V10 VOROSMARTY CJ, 1998, J HYDROL, V207, P147 WEISMAN RA, 1985, AM METEOROLOGICAL SO, V66, P788 WILLMOTT CJ, 1985, J CLIMATOL, V5, P589 WOLOCK DM, 1991, J FORECASTING, V10, P105 WOLOCK DM, 1993, WATER RESOUR BULL, V29, P475 WOLOCK DM, 1999, CLIMATE RES, V11, P149 WOLOCK DM, 1999, J AM WATER RESOUR AS, V35, P1341 NR 63 TC 3 J9 ANN ASSN AMER GEOGR BP 203 EP 224 PY 2002 PD JUN VL 92 IS 2 GA 565YT UT ISI:000176398700003 ER PT J AU Kates, RW Colten, CE Laska, S Leatherman, SP TI Reconstruction of New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina: A research perspective SO PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA LA English DT Article C1 Louisiana State Univ, Dept Geog & Anthropol, Baton Rouge, LA 70803 USA. Univ New Orleans, Ctr Hazards Assessment Response & Technol, New Orleans, LA 70148 USA. Florida Int Univ, Int Hurricane Res Ctr, Miami, FL 33199 USA. RP Kates, RW, 33 Popple Point, Trenton, ME 04605 USA. AB Four propositions drawn from 60 years of natural hazard and reconstruction research provide a comparative and historical perspective on the reconstruction of New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina. Decisions taken over its 288-year history that have made New Orleans so vulnerable to Katrina reflect a long-term pattern of societal response to hazard events-reducing consequences to relatively frequent events, and increasing vulnerability to very large and rare events. Thus Katrina's consequences for New Orleans were truly catastrophic-accounting for most of the estimated 1,570 deaths of Louisiana residents and $40-50 billion in monetary losses. A comparative sequence and timing of recovery provides a calendar of historical experience against which to gauge progress in reconstruction. Using this calendar, the emergency postdisaster period appears to be longer in duration than that of any other studied disaster. The restoration period, the time taken to restore urban services for the smaller population, is in keeping with or ahead of historical experience. The effort to reconstruct the physical environment and urban infrastructure is likely to take 8-11 years. Conflicting policy goals for reconstruction of rapid recovery, safety, betterment, and equity are already evident. Actions taken demonstrate the rush to rebuild the familiar in contrast to planning efforts that emphasize betterment. Because disasters tend to accelerate existing economic, social, and political trends, the large losses in housing, population, and employment after Katrina are likely to persist and, at best, only partly recover. However, the possibility of breaking free of this gloomy trajectory is feasible and has some historical precedent. CR 2006, INMAN NEWS 0327 *AIR WORLDW, 2005, AIR WORLDW EST TOT P *AM I ARCH, 2006, START POINT REP LOUI *BRING NEW ORL BAC, 2005, SUST ARCH NEW ORL KA *BRING NEW ORL BAC, 2006, ACT PLAN NEW ORL NEW *CIT NEW ORL, 2006, 2006 EM PREP PLAN *CIT NEW ORL, 2006, MAYOR CIT COUNC CIV *FED EM MAN AG, 2006, FLOOD REC GUID ADV B *HJ HEINZ 3 CTR SC, 2000, HIDD COSTS COAST HAZ *IND U CTR PHIL, 2006, GULF COAST HURR REL *INT PERF EV TASK, 2006, PERF EV NEW ORL SE L, V7 *INT PERF EV TASK, 2006, PERFORMANCE EVALUTIO, V1 *LOUIS COAST WETL, 1998, COAST 2050 SUST COAS *LOUIS DEP HLTH HO, 2006, REP MISS DEC *LOUIS REC AUTH, 2006, SUMM PROP ACT PLAN A *NAT I STAND TECHN, 2006, PERF PHYS STRUCT HUR *NAT RES COUNC COM, 2006, DRAW LOUIS NEW MAP A *NAT RES COUNC COM, 2006, FAC HAZ DIS UND HUM *RISK MAN SOL, 2005, RMS COMB REAL TIM RE *US ARM CORPS ENG, 1972, HIST HURR OCC COAST *US DEP HOUS URB D, 2006, CURR HOUS UN DAM EST AGEE JK, 2005, FOREST ECOL MANAG, V211, P83 BARRY JM, 1997, RISING TIDE GREAT MI BATES FL, 1993, LIVING CONDITIONS DI BOHANNON J, 2005, SCIENCE, V309, P1808 BOWDEN M, 1977, RECONSTRUCTION FOLLO, P69 BOWDEN MJ, 1981, CLIMATE HIST STUDIES, P479 BURBY RJ, 2006, ANN AM ACAD POLIT SS, V604, P171 BURTON I, 1962, TYPES AGR OCCUPANCE BURTON I, 1978, ENV HAZARD, V1, P1 CHANDLER T, 1974, 3000 YEARS URBAN GRO COLTEN CE, 2005, UNNATURAL METROPOLIS CUTTER SL, 2000, AM HAZARDSCAPES REGI CUTTER SL, 2005, EOS T AM GEOPHYS UN, V86, P381 CUTTER SL, 2005, EOS T AM GEOPHYS UN, V86, P388 DRURY AC, 1998, J CONTING CRISIS MAN, V6, P151 ELLIOTT DO, 1932, IMPROVEMENT LOWER MI EMANUEL K, 2005, NATURE, V436, P686 FENNER E, 1849, S MED REP, V1, P56 FENNER E, 1849, S MED REP, V1, P63 FISCHETTI M, 2001, SCI AM, V285, P77 FOLKE C, 2002, RESILIENCE SUSTAINAB FREY WH, 2006, KATRINA RITA IMPACTS GEIPEL R, 1991, LONG TERM CONSEQUENC GOLDENBERG SB, 2001, SCIENCE, V293, P474 HAAS JE, 1977, RECONSTRUCTION FOLLO HOUCK O, 2006, TULANE ENV LAW REV, V19, P1 IUSPAABBOTT P, 2003, S FLORIDA BUSINESS J KATES RW, 1977, RECONSTRUCTION FOLLO, P1 LASKA S, 2004, NAT HAZARDS OBSERVER, V29, P4 LEWIS P, 2003, NEW ORLEANS MAKING U LIU A, 2006, SPECIAL EDITION KATR LOGAN JR, 2006, IMPACT KATRINA RACE MANN ME, 2006, EOS, V87, P233 MCCARTHY K, 2005, REPOPULATION NEW ORL MCQUAID J, 2002, TIMES PICAYUNE 0623 MILETI DS, 1999, DISASTERS DESIGN REA MITCHELL JK, 2004, NZ REC S P JUL 12 13, P47 PASTOR M, 2006, WAKE STORM ENV DISAS ROVAI E, 1994, YB ASS PAC COAST GEO, V56, P49 STEPHEN S, 1983, DISASTERS, V7, P194 STOKSTAD E, 2005, SCIENCE, V310, P1264 WEBSTER PJ, 2005, SCIENCE, V309, P1844 WHITE GF, 1945, HUMAN ADJUSTMENT FLO NR 64 TC 1 J9 PROC NAT ACAD SCI USA BP 14653 EP 14660 PY 2006 PD OCT 3 VL 103 IS 40 GA 092AL UT ISI:000241069300005 ER PT J AU Thomas, DSG Twyman, C TI Equity and justice in climate change adaptation amongst natural-resource-dependent societies SO GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS LA English DT Article C1 Univ Oxford, Sch Geog & Environm, Oxford OX1 3TB, England. Univ Sheffield, Dept Geog, Sheffield S10 2TN, S Yorkshire, England. RP Thomas, DSG, Univ Oxford, Sch Geog & Environm, Mansfield Rd, Oxford OX1 3TB, England. AB Issues of equity and justice are high on international agendas dealing with the impacts of global climate change. But what are the implications of climate change for equity and justice amongst vulnerable groups at local and sub-national levels? We ask this question for three reasons: (a) there is a considerable literature suggesting that the poorest and most vulnerable groups will disproportionately experience the negative effects of 21st century climate change; (b) such changes are likely to impact significantly on developing world countries, where natural-resource dependency is high; and (c) international conventions increasingly recognise the need to centrally engage resource stakeholders in agendas in order to achieve their desired aims, as part of more holistic approaches to sustainable development. These issues however have implications for distributive and procedural justice, particularly when considered within the efforts of the UNFCCC. The issues are examined through an evaluation of key criteria relating to climate change scenarios and vulnerability in the developing world, and second through two southern African case studies that explore the ways in which livelihoods are differentially impacted by (i) inequitable natural-resource use policies, (ii) community-based natural-resource management programmes. Finally, we consider the placement of climate change amongst the package of factors affecting equity in natural-resource use, and whether this placement creates a case for considering climate change as 'special' amongst livelihood disturbing factors in the developing world. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR *DFID, 1997, EL WORLD POV CHALL 2 *DFID, 2002, EL HUNG DFID FOOD SE WATSON RT, 1998, REGIONAL IMPACTS CLI, V1, P1 *IPCC, 2001, CLIM CHANG 2001 *WORLDBANK, 2000, CAN AFR CLAIM 21 CEN *WORLDBANK, 2000, WORLD DEV REP 2000 2 *WORLDBANK, 2002, POV CLIM CHANG RED V, P54 *WRI, 1994, WORLD RES GUID GLOB ADGER WN, 2000, ANN ASSOC AM GEOGR, V90, P738 ADGER WN, 2002, AMBIO, V31, P358 ADGER WN, 2003, ENVIRON PLANN A, V35, P1095 ADGER WN, 2003, PROGR DEV STUDIES, V3, P179 ADGER WN, 2005, IN PRESS EQUITY JUST ANAND P, 2001, J ECON PSYCHOL, V22, P247 ASHLEY C, 2001, DEV POLICY REV, V19, P395 BARKER T, 2003, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V13, P1 BEG N, 2002, CLIM POLICY, V2, P129 BEINART W, 1995, ENV HIST BERKES F, 2002, CONSERV ECOL, V5, P1 BERRY S, 1989, AFRICA, V59, P1 BROAD R, 1994, WORLD DEV, V22, P811 BROWN K, 2002, GEOGR J 1, V168, P6 BRYCESON DF, 1996, WORLD DEV, V24, P97 BRYCESON DF, 2002, WORLD DEV, V30, P725 BURTON I, 1996, ADAPTING CLIMATE CHA, P55 BURTON I, 2002, CLIM POLICY, V2, P145 CHAMBERS R, 1983, RURAL DEV PUTTING LA CLAY E, 1984, ROOM MANOEUVRE EXPLO CORELL E, 1999, INT NEGOTIATION, V4, P197 CRUSH J, 1995, POWER DEV DENTON F, 2000, CLIMATE CHANGE SUSTA DERCON S, 1996, J DEV STUD, V32, P850 DESANKER P, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, P489 ELLIS F, 1998, J DEV STUD, V35, P1 ELLIS F, 2000, RURAL LIVELIHOODS DI FEW R, 2003, PROGR DEV STUDIES, V3, P43 GRUBB M, 2001, CLIM POLICY, V1, P269 HULME M, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE SO AF KATES RW, 2000, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V45, P5 KENT S, 1996, CULTURAL DIVERSITY 2, P125 KIKAR GA, 2000, WORKSH MEAS IMP CLIM LEACH M, 1999, WORLD DEV, V27, P225 LOGAN BI, 2002, GEOFORUM, V33, P1 METZ B, 2002, CLIM POLICY, V2, P211 MEYER WB, 1998, HUMAN CHOICE CLIMATE, V3 MILLER D, 1992, ETHICS, V102, P555 MORTIMORE MJ, 2001, GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANG, V11, P49 MOSER CON, 1998, WORLD DEV, V26, P1 MURTON J, 1999, GEOGR J 1, V165, P37 OSAKI M, 1984, AFRICAN STUDY MONOGR, V5, P49 PAAVOLA J, 2002, 23 U E ANGL TYND CTR PELLING M, 1999, GEOFORUM, V30, P249 PIETERSE JN, 1999, DEV CHANGE, V30, P183 RAMAKRISHNAN PS, 1998, CLIMATIC CHANGE, V39, P583 RAYNER S, 2000, CLIMATE CHANGE ITS L REIJ C, 2001, FARMER INNOVATION AF RINGIUS L, 1996, CLIMATE CHANGE AFRIC, P154 SCOONES I, 1999, POLICIES SOIL FERTIL SCOONES I, 2001, DYNAMICS DIVERSITY S SKOUFIAS E, 2003, WORLD DEV, V31, P1087 SMIT B, 2001, CLIMATE CHANGE 2001, P879 SOKONA Y, 2001, CLIM POLICY, V1, P117 THOMAS DSG, 2002, POVERTY POLICY NATUR THOMAS DSG, 2003, 3 MILLENNIUM ROLE ST, P3 THOMAS DSG, 2004, LAND DEGRAD DEV, V15, P215 TIFFEN M, 1994, MORE PEOPLE LESS ERO TOL RSJ, 2000, MUCH DAMAGE WILL CLI TOMPKINS EL, 2004, ECOL SOC, V9, P10 TSING AL, 1999, AMBIO, V28, P197 TWYMAN C, 1998, THIRD WORLD Q, V19, P745 TWYMAN C, 2001, REV AFRICAN POLITICA, V87, P9 TWYMAN C, 2002, INT C WAT RES INT MA TWYMAN C, 2004, GEOFORUM, V35, P69 WASHINGTON R, IN PRESS WATER RESOU NR 74 TC 4 J9 GLOBAL ENVIRON CHANGE BP 115 EP 124 PY 2005 PD JUL VL 15 IS 2 GA 931VR UT ISI:000229514100005 ER PT J AU Howe, P Devereux, S TI Famine intensity and magnitude scales: A proposal for an instrumental definition of famine SO DISASTERS LA English DT Article C1 Univ Sussex, Inst Dev Studies, Brighton BN1 9RE, E Sussex, England. RP Howe, P, Univ Sussex, Inst Dev Studies, Brighton BN1 9RE, E Sussex, England. AB Ambiguities in current usage of the term 'famine' have had tragic implications for response and accountability in a number of recent food crises. This paper proposes a new approach to defining famine based on the use of intensity and magnitude scales, where 'intensity' refers to the severity of the crisis at a given location and point in time, while 'magnitude' describes the aggregate impact of a crisis. The scales perform three operations on famine':first, moving from a binary conception of 'famine/no famine' to a graduated, multi-level definition; second, disaggregating the dimensions of intensity and magnitude; and third, assigning harmonised 'objective' criteria in place of subjective, case-by-case judgements. If adopted, the famine scales should contribute to more effective and proportionate responses, as well as greater accountability in future food crises. 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RP Niehof, A, Univ Wageningen & Res Ctr, Mansholt Grad Sch Social Sci, Sociol Consumers & Households Grp, Wageningen, Netherlands. AB There is an increasing awareness that diversification plays a strategic role in rural livelihood systems. The principal question to be addressed in this paper pertains to the conditions and the ways in which rural households diversify their livelihood activities and strategies. To answer this question empirical evidence will be reviewed. Specific attention will be paid to perspectives that may shed new light on the issue of rural livelihood diversification: a gender perspective, a temporal perspective, and the 'HIV/AIDS lens'. In the paper, the livelihood system is seen as an open system, interfacing with other systems and using various resources and assets to produce livelihood, with the household as the locus of livelihood generation. Diversification is defined as the process by which households construct increasingly. diverse livelihood portfolios, making use, of. increasingly diverse combinations of resources and assets. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. CR ADLER PS, 1999, SOCIAL CAPITAL GOOD ANDERSON M, 1994, SOCIAL POLITICAL EC ARACHCHI RBS, 1998, UNDERSTANDING VULNER BARNETT T, 2002, AIDS 21 CENTURY BARRETT CB, 2001, FOOD POLICY, V26, P315 BEBBINGTON A, 1999, WORLD DEV, V27, P2021 BERRY S, 1993, NO CONDITION IS PERM BRYCESON DH, 1999, 43 ASC AFR STUD CHAMBERS R, 1989, IDS B, V20, P1 CHAMBERS R, 1992, 296 IDS CHEAL D, 1989, HOUSEHOLD EC RECONSI CROW B, 1992, RURAL LIVELIHOODS CR EDMONDSON JC, 1992, BALI REVISITED RURAL ELLIS F, 1988, FARM HOUSEHOLDS AGRA ELLIS F, 1998, J DEV STUD, V35, P1 ELLIS F, 2000, RURAL LIVELIHOODS DI ENGBERG LE, 1990, RURAL HOUSEHOLDS RES FIREBAUGH FM, 1994, CHANGES DAILY LIFE HADDAD L, 2001, J INT DEV, V13, P487 HETLER CB, 1990, STRUCTURES STRATEGIE JOHNSON H, 1992, RURAL LIVELIHOODS CR KABEER N, 1994, REVERSED REALITIES G KENNEDY E, 1991, INCOME SOURCES MALNO LINDENBERG M, 2002, WORLD DEV, V30, P301 LOEVINSOHN M, 2003, 2 IFPRI RENEWAL ISNA MOERBEEK HS, 2001, ICS DISSERTATION SER, V73 MOSER CON, 1996, ENV SUSTAINABLE DEV, V8 MTSHALI SM, 2002, THESIS WAGENINGEN U NEGASH A, 2001, THESIS WAGENINGEN U NIEHOF A, 2001, WAGENINGEN UPWARD SE, V1 NIEHOF A, 2003, 2 IS ENOUGH FAMILY P OLAUGHLIN B, 1997, WORKING PAPER SERIES, V252 ORR A, 2001, WORLD DEV, V29, P1325 PENNARTZ P, 1999, DOMESTIC DOMAIN CHAN PORTES A, 1998, ANNU REV SOCIOL, V24, P1 REARDON T, 2000, J AGR ECON, V51, P266 RUDIE I, 1995, MALE FEMALE DEV SE A RUGALEMA GHR, 1999, THESIS I SOCIAL STUD SCOONES I, 1998, 72 U SUSS I DEV STUC SWIFT J, 1989, IDS B, V20, P8 VONBRAUN J, 1991, INCOME SOURCES MALNO NR 41 TC 0 J9 FOOD POLICY BP 321 EP 338 PY 2004 PD AUG VL 29 IS 4 GA 867YF UT ISI:000224878100003 ER PT J AU Azar, C Schneider, SH TI Are the economic costs of stabilising the atmosphere prohibitive? SO ECOLOGICAL ECONOMICS LA English DT Article C1 Univ Gothenburg, Chalmers Univ Technol, Dept Phys Resource Theory, S-41296 Gothenburg, Sweden. Stanford Univ, Dept Biol Sci, Stanford, CA 94305 USA. RP Azar, C, Univ Gothenburg, Chalmers Univ Technol, Dept Phys Resource Theory, S-41296 Gothenburg, Sweden. AB Macro economic studies of the costs of reducing CO2 emissions generally estimate the global cost of stabilising the atmospheric concentrations of CO2 in the range 350-550 ppm in trillions of USD. This creates the impression that the cost of CO2 reductions is so large that it threatens economic development. But, presented in another way, a completely different picture emerges. There is widespread agreement amongst the more pessimistic macro economic studies that stringent carbon controls are compatible with a significant increase in global and regional economic welfare. Even if the cost of CO2 abatement rises to 5% of global income per year by the end of this century, this reduction is minor compared with the tenfold increase in global income that is expected. Since income is assumed to grow by a couple of percent per year, the trillion USD cost could also be expressed as a few years delay in achieving an order of magnitude higher income levels. Similar observations can also be made as regards near-term abatement targets such as the Kyoto protocol. A more widespread recognition of the fact that carbon abatement policies will only marginally affect economic growth is likely to increase the willingness to introduce carbon abatement policies. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. 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Univ Manchester, CURE, Manchester M13 9PL, Lancs, England. RP McEvoy, D, Univ Maastricht, Int Ctr Integrated Assessment & Sustainable Dev, Maastricht, Netherlands. AB Following the introduction of the national Climate Change Programme, initiatives that seek to mitigate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are now well established in the UK. However, there is increasing recognition that adaptation to some level of climate change will be necessary, even if a reduction in emissions is successful. This is inevitable as much of the predicted climate changes over the next 30 - 40 years have already been predetermined by past and present emissions of GHGs. Change is likely to be significant. Understanding what the risks are likely to be and how best to adapt to them is therefore central to any mature climate change strategy. However, the inevitable linkages between adaptation and mitigation measures represent a particular challenge. Focusing on the consequences of climate change for the urban environment ( where most of the population is concentrated and where its impact is likely to be most keenly felt), this paper suggests preferred adaptation options and provides an evaluation of how these may act to reinforce or hamper mitigation efforts. For example, moves towards urban densification may contribute to the reduction of energy use, yet will have negative implications for adaptation. Having a better understanding of the synergies, conflicts and trade-offs between mitigation and adaptation measures would make a valuable contribution to a more integrated climate policy and the effective climate-proofing of our towns and cities. 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NR 0 TC 0 J9 SING J TROP GEOGR BP 241 EP 242 PY 1995 PD DEC VL 16 IS 2 GA UH587 UT ISI:A1995UH58700009 ER PT J AU Hartig, EK Grozev, O Rosenzweig, C TI Climate change, agriculture and wetlands in Eastern Europe: Vulnerability, adaptation and policy SO CLIMATIC CHANGE LA English DT Article C1 BULGARIAN ACAD SCI,FOREST RES INST,BG-1040 SOFIA,BULGARIA. NASA,GODDARD INST SPACE STUDIES,NEW YORK,NY 10025. RP Hartig, EK, COLUMBIA UNIV,CTR CLIMATE SYST RES,NEW YORK,NY 10027. AB Naturally-occurring wetlands perform such functions as flood control, pollution filtration, nutrient recycling, sediment accretion, groundwater recharge and water supply, erosion control, and plant and wildlife preservation. A large concentration of wetlands is located in Eastern Europe. A significant amount of Eastern European wetlands has been converted to agricultural use in the past, and remaining wetlands are subject to agricultural drainage. Drained wetlands are used as prime agriculture lands for a variety of food crops. Other agricultural uses of wetlands range from growing Phragmites australis (common reed) for thatch and livestock feed, to collecting peat for heating and cooking fuel. Altered hydrologic regimes due to global climate change could further exacerbate encroachment of agricultural land use into wetlands. The vulnerability and adaptation studies of the U.S. Country Studies Program are used to analyze where climate change impacts to agriculture may likewise impact wetland;areas. Scenarios indicate higher temperatures and greater evapotranspiration altering the hydrologic regime such that freshwater wetlands are potentially vulnerable in Bulgaria, Czech Republic, and Russia, and that coastal wetlands are at risk in Estonia. Runoff is identified as a key hydrological parameter affecting wetland function. Since wetland losses may increase as a result of climate-change-induced impacts to agriculture, precautionary management options are reviewed, such as establishing buffer areas, promoting sustainable uses of wetlands, and restoration of farmed or mined wetland areas. These options may reduce the extent of negative agricultural impacts on wetlands due to global climate change. 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Natl Taiwan Univ, Dept Agr Econ, Taipei 10764, Taiwan. Acad Sinica, Inst Econ, Taipei 115, Taiwan. RP Chang, CC, Acad Sinica, Inst Econ, Yen Chiou Yuan Rd, Taipei 115, Taiwan. AB This study examines the impact of weather on the yields of seven major crops in Taiwan based on pooled panel data for 15 prefectures over the 1977-1996 period. The unit root tests and maximum likelihood methods involving a panel data model are explored to obtain reliable estimates. The uncertain yield outcome is incorporated into a discrete stochastic programming model to address a comparison between sector analysis with and without considerations of a crop insurance policy under different climate change scenarios. Simulation results suggest that crop insurance may stabilize revenues and protect farmers from exposures to increasing weather-related risk. 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Univ British Columbia, Dept Geog, Vancouver, BC V6T 122, Canada. RP Owen, T, Jesus Coll, Turl St, Oxford OX1 3DW, England. AB A new methodology for measuring human security is presented. The three stages of the methodology are: i) threat assessment, ii) data collection and organization, and iii) data visualization and analysis, using Geographic Information Sys