State Precipitation &
Temperature Update for
Conditions through May 2007
Precipitation
is monitored for the state of
Here, precipitation
percentile values for the most recent month, along with previous 3-, 6-, 12-,
24-, 36-, and 48-month total are shown for each watershed. Low percentile values (brown shading) indicate
dry conditions while high values (green shading) indicate wet conditions. For
example, a precipitation total that falls at the 100th percentile
means that it is the highest precipitation total for the 1971-present period.
Temperature is monitored for the state of
Here, temperature
percentile values for the most recent month, along with previous 3-, 6-, 12-,
24-, 36-, and 48-month averages are shown for each climate division. Low percentile values (blue shading) indicate
cool conditions while high values (orange/red shading) indicate hot conditions.
For example, a temperature that falls at the 100th percentile means
that it is the highest average temperature for the 1895-present period.
The maps of the seven
periods for precipitation and temperature are shown below, with tables of the
percentile values and descriptive text following the maps. Current update is 4528/2007. The data are preliminary, and some data are
missing from the San Pedro watershed.
Precipitation Percentiles by Watershed
(through May 2007)
Temperature Percentiles by Climate
Division (through May 2007)
SHORT TERM CONDITIONS: 1-6 MONTHS
May is generally a
dry month across
Watershed |
Precipitation Percentile |
Climate
Division |
Temperature Percentile |
Virgin |
24.32 |
CD1 |
88.05 |
|
54.05 |
CD2 |
78.32 |
Little |
56.76 |
CD3 |
89.38 |
Verde |
32.43 |
CD4 |
96.46 |
Bill
Williams |
37.84 |
CD5 |
84.96 |
|
43.24 |
CD6 |
91.15 |
|
51.35 |
CD7 |
88.05 |
Salt |
56.76 |
|
|
|
22.97 |
|
|
|
67.57 |
|
|
|
37.84 |
|
|
San Pedro |
40.54 |
|
|
Willcox
Playa |
70.27 |
|
|
San Simon |
13.51 |
|
|
White
Water Draw |
59.46 |
|
MAY 2007: percentiles of precipitation for the 15
Watershed |
Precipitation Percentile |
Climate
Division |
Temperature Percentile |
Virgin |
16.22 |
CD1 |
93.81 |
|
27.03 |
CD2 |
92.92 |
Little |
18.92 |
CD3 |
91.15 |
Verde |
16.22 |
CD4 |
96.46 |
Bill
Williams |
10.81 |
CD5 |
88.50 |
|
16.22 |
CD6 |
92.04 |
|
45.95 |
CD7 |
92.04 |
Salt |
18.92 |
|
|
|
44.59 |
|
|
|
51.35 |
|
|
|
21.62 |
|
|
San Pedro |
54.05 |
|
|
Willcox
Playa |
75.68 |
|
|
San Simon |
37.84 |
|
|
White
Water Draw |
81.08 |
|
MARCH 2006 - MAY 2007 (3-month): percentiles of precipitation for the 15
Watershed |
Precipitation Percentile |
Climate
Division |
Temperature Percentile |
Virgin |
17.14 |
CD1 |
84.07 |
|
22.22 |
CD2 |
75.22 |
Little |
20.00 |
CD3 |
79.65 |
Verde |
17.14 |
CD4 |
91.15 |
Bill
Williams |
11.11 |
CD5 |
76.11 |
|
16.67 |
CD6 |
84.96 |
|
19.44 |
CD7 |
72.57 |
Salt |
25.00 |
|
|
|
16.67 |
|
|
|
38.89 |
|
|
|
25.00 |
|
|
San Pedro |
35.29 |
|
|
Willcox
Playa |
48.57 |
|
|
San Simon |
19.44 |
|
|
White
Water Draw |
54.29 |
|
DECEMBER 2006 – MAY 2007 (6-month): percentiles of precipitation for the 15
INTERMEDIATE
TERM CONDITIONS: 12-24 MONTHS
All watersheds except
those in the southeast are well below average for the 12 month period. The San Pedro, Willcox Playa, and White Water
Draw watersheds in the southeast have had above average precipitation both
during the 2006 summer, and the 2007 winter.
Temperatures are above the 78th percentile everywhere in the
state.
The two-year period has
consistently been the driest period with all watersheds receiving well below
average precipitation, nine are below the 9th percentile and two are
below the 3rd percentile.
This indicates that the drought is experiencing a cyclic wet-dry regime
where each phase seems to last 12 months.
For temperature, again all divisions are above the 75th
percentile, exacerbating the dry conditions.
The southeast climate division continues to be at the 100th
percentile.
Watershed |
Precipitation Percentile |
Climate
Division |
Temperature Percentile |
Virgin |
20.59 |
CD1 |
80.36 |
|
33.33 |
CD2 |
78.57 |
Little |
30.56 |
CD3 |
86.61 |
Verde |
19.44 |
CD4 |
87.50 |
Bill
Williams |
11.11 |
CD5 |
89.29 |
|
25.00 |
CD6 |
88.39 |
|
25.00 |
CD7 |
90.18 |
Salt |
33.33 |
|
|
|
25.00 |
|
|
|
58.33 |
|
|
|
41.67 |
|
|
San Pedro |
69.44 |
|
|
Willcox
Playa |
74.29 |
|
|
San Simon |
22.22 |
|
|
White
Water Draw |
68.57 |
|
JUNE 2006 – MAY 2007 (12-month): percentiles of precipitation for the 15
Watershed |
Precipitation Percentile |
Climate
Division |
Temperature Percentile |
Virgin |
18.18 |
CD1 |
75.68 |
|
8.57 |
CD2 |
87.39 |
Little |
8.57 |
CD3 |
89.64 |
Verde |
5.71 |
CD4 |
92.79 |
Bill
Williams |
2.86 |
CD5 |
88.29 |
|
2.86 |
CD6 |
94.59 |
|
8.57 |
CD7 |
100.00 |
Salt |
5.71 |
|
|
|
28.57 |
|
|
|
20.00 |
|
|
|
8.57 |
|
|
San Pedro |
28.57 |
|
|
Willcox
Playa |
40.00 |
|
|
San Simon |
5.71 |
|
|
White
Water Draw |
34.29 |
|
JUNE 2005 – MAY 2007 (24-month): percentiles of precipitation for the 15
LONG TERM
CONDITIONS: 36-48 MONTHS
The 36-month precipitation
is well below average in the southeastern watersheds and above average for the
northern and western watersheds. This
period includes the wet winter of 2005. The
36-month-temperature pattern has been consistent for the past five
updates, with
All watersheds except
the upper and lower
Watershed |
Precipitation Percentile |
Climate
Division |
Temperature Percentile |
Virgin |
81.25 |
CD1 |
74.55 |
|
61.76 |
CD2 |
89.09 |
Little |
29.41 |
CD3 |
88.18 |
Verde |
44.12 |
CD4 |
95.45 |
Bill
Williams |
41.18 |
CD5 |
89.09 |
|
32.35 |
CD6 |
90.91 |
|
47.06 |
CD7 |
99.09 |
Salt |
38.24 |
|
|
|
73.53 |
|
|
|
38.24 |
|
|
|
5.88 |
|
|
San Pedro |
23.53 |
|
|
Willcox
Playa |
38.24 |
|
|
San Simon |
8.82 |
|
|
White
Water Draw |
47.06 |
|
JUNE 2004 – MAY 2007 (36-month): percentiles of temperature, and precipitation for the 15
Watershed |
Precipitation Percentile |
Climate
Division |
Temperature Percentile |
Virgin |
-99.99 |
CD1 |
77.98 |
|
51.52 |
CD2 |
89.91 |
Little |
24.24 |
CD3 |
93.58 |
Verde |
30.30 |
CD4 |
96.33 |
Bill
Williams |
30.30 |
CD5 |
89.91 |
|
21.21 |
CD6 |
97.25 |
|
39.39 |
CD7 |
100.00 |
Salt |
27.27 |
|
|
|
66.67 |
|
|
|
24.24 |
|
|
|
12.12 |
|
|
San Pedro |
15.15 |
|
|
Willcox
Playa |
18.18 |
|
|
San Simon |
21.21 |
|
|
White
Water Draw |
33.33 |
|
JUNE 2003 – MAY 2007 (48-month): percentiles of temperature, and precipitation for the 15
June 2007 Arizona Drought
Update based on Precipitation (data through May 2007)
The
following summary describes the heat and dryness across the state for the 1-,
3-, 6-, 12-, 24-, 36-, and 48-month periods.
SUMMARY
May
is generally a dry month across
Three-month period
– Precipitation for the 3-month period of March through May was well below the
40th percentile for the northern half of the state because the shift
to La Niña
conditions resulted in relatively dry conditions in March and April. The lack of frontal storm systems also
resulted in temperatures above the 88th percentile everywhere in the
state.
Six-month period
– The 6-month precipitation map still shows the effects of the dry winter with
only four watersheds in the southeast corner of the state above the 25th
percentile. Temperatures were above
average everywhere in the state for the 6-month period.
Twelve-month period
– All watersheds except those in the southeast are well below average for the
12 month period. The San Pedro, Willcox
Playa, and White Water Draw watersheds in the southeast have had above average
precipitation both during the 2006 summer, and the 2007 winter. Temperatures are above the 78th
percentile everywhere in the state.
Two-year period
- has consistently been the driest period with all watersheds receiving well
below average precipitation, nine are below the 9th percentile and
two are below the 3rd percentile.
This indicates that the drought is experiencing a cyclic wet-dry regime
where each phase seems to last 12 months.
For temperature, again all divisions are above the 75th
percentile, exacerbating the dry conditions.
The southeast climate division continues to be at the 100th
percentile.
Three-year period
- The 36-month precipitation is well below average in the southeastern
watersheds and above average for the northern and western watersheds. This period includes the wet winter of
2005. The 36-month-temperature
pattern has been consistent for the past five updates, with
Four-year period
- All watersheds except the upper and lower