State Climate Update for
September 2005
September,
typically marking the demise of the annual monsoon season across
|
Temperature |
Precipitation |
PDSI |
CD1 |
72.1% |
12.6% (3) |
94.6% |
CD2 |
64.9% |
19.8% (2) |
89.2% |
CD3 |
68.5% |
14.4% (3) |
85.6% |
CD4 |
64.0% |
34.2% (1) |
65.8% |
CD5 |
68.5% |
21.6% (2) |
99.1% |
CD6 |
87.4% |
23.4% (2) |
89.2% |
CD7 |
74.8% |
24.3% (2) |
33.3% |
1-month percentiles of temperature, precipitation (with
drought category), and Palmer Drought Severity Index for the 7
July 2005 – September 2005
Precipitation
for the three-month period that approximately represents the monsoon season was
near normal to slightly below normal across the state. The exceptions were
across southwestern (CD 5) and south-central (CD 6)
|
Temperature |
Precipitation |
CD1 |
78.4% |
49.6% (0) |
CD2 |
71.2% |
27.0% (1) |
CD3 |
80.2% |
31.5% (1) |
CD4 |
70.3% |
33.3% (1) |
CD5 |
85.6% |
66.7% (0) |
CD6 |
89.2% |
60.4% (0) |
CD7 |
80.2% |
16.2% (2) |
3-month percentiles of temperature, and precipitation (with
drought category) for the 7
April 2005 – September 2005
Six-month
precipitation values indicate evidence of drought conditions in southeastern
|
Temperature |
Precipitation |
CD1 |
73.0% |
54.1% (0) |
CD2 |
68.5% |
36.9% (1) |
CD3 |
82.0% |
38.7% (1) |
CD4 |
67.6% |
27.9% (1) |
CD5 |
82.0% |
60.4% (0) |
CD6 |
88.3% |
53.2% (0) |
CD7 |
85.6% |
14.4% (3) |
6-month percentiles of temperature, and precipitation (with
drought category) for the 7
October 2004 – September 2005
There
is no evidence of drought within the state when examining precipitation totals
for the past 12-month period. Most regions were characterized by well above
normal precipitation, including totals in the 90th percentile for 5
of the 7 regions, the second wettest October-September period on record for 2
of the regions (CDs 1 and 2), and the wettest on record across southwestern Arizona
(CD 5). The relatively drier area continues to be across the southeast (CD 7; 60th
percentile). Still, the 12-month precipitation total in that region was above
the long-term median. Temperatures across the state were above normal for the
past 12-month period, but again, the values were not near unprecedented levels.
|
Temperature |
Precipitation |
CD1 |
75.5% |
99.1% (0) |
CD2 |
82.7% |
99.1% (0) |
CD3 |
78.2% |
98.2% (0) |
CD4 |
73.6% |
88.2% (0) |
CD5 |
74.5% |
100% (0) |
CD6 |
83.6% |
94.5% (0) |
CD7 |
73.6% |
60.9% (0) |
12-month percentiles of temperature, and precipitation (with
drought category) for the 7
October 2003 – September 2005
Twenty-four
month precipitation values continue to indicate rather wet conditions across
the state, as all regions but the southeast (CD 7) were comfortably above the
long-term median value, and well above across the western portion of the state.
The 2-year precipitation total was near average across southeastern
|
Temperature |
Precipitation |
CD1 |
81.7% |
93.6% (0) |
CD2 |
89.9% |
84.4% (0) |
CD3 |
89.0% |
86.2% (0) |
CD4 |
94.5% |
66.1% (0) |
CD5 |
89.0% |
97.3% (0) |
CD6 |
90.8% |
83.5% (0) |
CD7 |
82.6% |
40.4% (0) |
24-month percentiles of temperature, and precipitation (with
drought category) for the 7
October 2002 – September 2005
Precipitation
totals for the longer 3-year period indicate conditions that are not as wet
when considering the past two years, as a portion of the very dry year of 2002
enters the timeframe. Rather dry conditions are evident across the southeastern
portion of the state (CD 7; 22nd percentile), where the total
precipitation for the period is suggestive of “moderate drought” conditions.
Elsewhere, precipitation was either near or above the long-term median for the
3-year period. Temperatures for the period were well above the historical
median; however, the longer 3-year time period likely illustrates the more
general climatic changes of the past several decades rather than shorter term
anomalies.
|
Temperature |
Precipitation |
CD1 |
85.2% |
86.1% (0) |
CD2 |
91.7% |
68.5% (0) |
CD3 |
93.5% |
75.0% (0) |
CD4 |
97.2% |
46.3% (0) |
CD5 |
92.6% |
92.6% (0) |
CD6 |
94.4% |
75.0% (0) |
CD7 |
86.1% |
22.2% (2) |
36-month percentiles of temperature, and precipitation (with
drought category) for the 7
October 2001 – September 2005
Forty
eight-month precipitation values indicate clear evidence of longer-term drought
conditions across two areas of the state, with abnormally dry conditions across
another three areas. All regions within the state, except for the southwest (CD
5), have been characterized by less than average precipitation over the 4-year
period. Precipitation totals for the period indicate “abnormally dry”
conditions across the northeastern (CD 2), west-central (CD 3), and south-central
(CD 6) portions of the state. Long-term conditions suggestive of “severe
drought” exist across southeastern (CD 7) and east-central (CD 4)
|
Temperature |
Precipitation |
CD1 |
88.8% |
45.8% (0) |
CD2 |
93.5% |
38.3% (1) |
CD3 |
97.2% |
30.8% (1) |
CD4 |
98.1% |
8.4% (3) |
CD5 |
92.5% |
72.0% (0) |
CD6 |
96.3% |
34.6% (1) |
CD7 |
96.3% |
11.2% (3) |
48-month percentiles of temperature, and precipitation (with
drought category) for the 7
Summary
Corresponding
with the end of the annual monsoon season, September 2005 was characterized by unusually
low rainfall across the state. However, the wet fall and winter conditions of
2004-05 were still reflected in high (wet) Palmer Drought Index Values for much
of the state. Problematic has been the re-emergence of dry conditions across
southeastern