State Precipitation &
Temperature Update for
Conditions through November
2006
Precipitation
is monitored for the state of
Here, precipitation
percentile values for the most recent month, along with previous 3-, 6-, 12-,
24-, 36-, and 48-month total are shown for each watershed. Low percentile values (brown shading) indicate
dry conditions while high values (green shading) indicate wet conditions. For
example, a precipitation total that falls at the 100th percentile
means that it is the highest precipitation total for the 1971-present period.
Temperature is monitored for the state of
Here, temperature
percentile values for the most recent month, along with previous 3-, 6-, 12-,
24-, 36-, and 48-month averages are shown for each climate division. Low percentile values (blue shading) indicate
cool conditions while high values (orange/red shading) indicate hot conditions.
For example, a temperature that falls at the 100th percentile means
that it is the highest average temperature for the 1895-present period.
The maps of the seven
periods for precipitation and temperature are shown below, with tables of the
percentile values and descriptive text following the maps. Current update is 12/28/2006. Note the San Pedro has preliminary precipitation
data only.
Precipitation Percentiles by Watershed
(through November 2006)
Temperature Percentiles by Climate
Division (through November 2006)
SHORT TERM CONDITIONS: 1-6 MONTHS
November precipitation
was well below average everywhere in the state, not even reaching the 15th
percentile. Temperatures were above
average everywhere in the state, increasing the water demand by vegetation. The 3-month period gained a very dry November
and dropped a very wet August. The Salt,
Lower Gila and Bill Williams watersheds had near average precipitation for the
3-month period, while the Upper and Lower Colorado and the southeast corner had
slightly above average precipitation.
Precipitation in the Little Colorado, Verde, Agua Fria,
Watershed |
Precipitation Percentile |
Climate
Division |
Temperature Percentile |
Virgin |
8.57 |
CD1 |
83.93 |
|
13.89 |
CD2 |
87.05 |
Little |
13.89 |
CD3 |
91.07 |
Verde |
11.11 |
CD4 |
91.96 |
Bill
Williams |
11.11 |
CD5 |
97.32 |
|
8.33 |
CD6 |
98.21 |
|
5.56 |
CD7 |
88.84 |
Salt |
11.11 |
|
|
|
9.72 |
|
|
|
5.56 |
|
|
|
11.11 |
|
|
San Pedro |
5.56 |
|
|
Willcox
Playa |
8.57 |
|
|
San Simon |
11.11 |
|
|
White
Water Draw |
11.11 |
|
NOVEMBER 2006: percentiles of precipitation for the 15
Watershed |
Precipitation Percentile |
Climate
Division |
Temperature Percentile |
Virgin |
41.18 |
CD1 |
67.86 |
|
63.89 |
CD2 |
44.64 |
Little |
36.11 |
CD3 |
50.89 |
Verde |
36.11 |
CD4 |
44.20 |
Bill
Williams |
44.44 |
CD5 |
88.39 |
|
27.78 |
CD6 |
91.96 |
|
33.33 |
CD7 |
54.02 |
Salt |
41.67 |
|
|
|
63.89 |
|
|
|
41.67 |
|
|
|
25.00 |
|
|
San Pedro |
63.89 |
|
|
Willcox
Playa |
60.00 |
|
|
San Simon |
30.56 |
|
|
White
Water Draw |
61.11 |
|
SEPTEMBER 2006 - NOVEMBER 2006
(3-month): percentiles of precipitation for
the 15
Watershed |
Precipitation Percentile |
Climate
Division |
Temperature Percentile |
Virgin |
29.41 |
CD1 |
80.36 |
|
55.56 |
CD2 |
78.57 |
Little |
61.11 |
CD3 |
85.27 |
Verde |
63.89 |
CD4 |
81.70 |
Bill
Williams |
30.56 |
CD5 |
97.32 |
|
50.00 |
CD6 |
96.43 |
|
38.89 |
CD7 |
87.95 |
Salt |
61.11 |
|
|
|
61.11 |
|
|
|
75.00 |
|
|
|
72.22 |
|
|
San Pedro |
94.44 |
|
|
Willcox
Playa |
88.57 |
|
|
San Simon |
52.78 |
|
|
White
Water Draw |
71.43 |
|
JUNE 2005 NOVEMBER 2006 (6-month): percentiles of precipitation for the 15
INTERMEDIATE
TERM CONDITIONS: 12-24 MONTHS
The 12-month period shows
little change from last months update, with only three watersheds in the
southeast corner near average for precipitation. The Virgin, Upper Gila and
The two-year period
shows the Colorado and Virgin River watersheds still above the 75th
percentile, while the most of the state has dropped to near average, except the
Santa Cruz and San Simon watersheds, which are still below the 21st
percentile. The 24-month temperatures were
well above the 85th percentile everywhere except the Northwest division, which
dropped down to the 72nd percentile. The southeast climate division had its warmest
24-month period since 1895, and climate division six, which includes
Watershed |
Precipitation Percentile |
Climate
Division |
Temperature Percentile |
Virgin |
39.39 |
CD1 |
77.48 |
|
20.00 |
CD2 |
87.84 |
Little |
22.86 |
CD3 |
87.84 |
Verde |
11.43 |
CD4 |
90.99 |
Bill
Williams |
5.71 |
CD5 |
92.79 |
|
11.43 |
CD6 |
96.40 |
|
14.29 |
CD7 |
98.20 |
Salt |
14.29 |
|
|
|
20.00 |
|
|
|
37.14 |
|
|
|
25.71 |
|
|
San Pedro |
48.57 |
|
|
Willcox
Playa |
57.14 |
|
|
San Simon |
11.43 |
|
|
White
Water Draw |
51.43 |
|
DECEMBER 2005 NOVEMBER 2006
(12-month): percentiles of precipitation for
the 15
Watershed |
Precipitation Percentile |
Climate
Division |
Temperature Percentile |
Virgin |
87.50 |
CD1 |
71.82 |
|
64.71 |
CD2 |
92.73 |
Little |
44.12 |
CD3 |
90.00 |
Verde |
47.06 |
CD4 |
92.73 |
Bill
Williams |
38.24 |
CD5 |
89.09 |
|
44.12 |
CD6 |
96.36 |
|
52.94 |
CD7 |
100.00 |
Salt |
44.12 |
|
|
|
64.71 |
|
|
|
50.00 |
|
|
|
20.59 |
|
|
San Pedro |
41.18 |
|
|
Willcox
Playa |
47.06 |
|
|
San Simon |
14.71 |
|
|
White
Water Draw |
55.88 |
|
DECEMBER 2004 NOVEMBER 2006
(24-month): percentiles of precipitation for
the 15
LONG TERM
CONDITIONS: 36-48 MONTHS
The 36-month precipitation
rankings remain the same since the November update, except the
The 48-month
precipitation pattern has degraded with the eastern half of the state well
below average for precipitation, the central watersheds near normal and the
Watershed |
Precipitation Percentile |
Climate
Division |
Temperature Percentile |
Virgin |
93.55 |
CD1 |
75.23 |
|
69.70 |
CD2 |
90.83 |
Little |
30.30 |
CD3 |
89.91 |
Verde |
54.55 |
CD4 |
95.41 |
Bill
Williams |
51.52 |
CD5 |
88.07 |
|
45.45 |
CD6 |
96.33 |
|
60.61 |
CD7 |
99.08 |
Salt |
45.45 |
|
|
|
81.82 |
|
|
|
39.39 |
|
|
|
9.09 |
|
|
San Pedro |
33.33 |
|
|
Willcox
Playa |
45.45 |
|
|
San Simon |
18.18 |
|
|
White
Water Draw |
48.48 |
|
DECEMBER 2003 NOVEMBER 2006
(36-month): percentiles of temperature, and
precipitation for the 15
Watershed |
Precipitation Percentile |
Climate
Division |
Temperature Percentile |
Virgin |
-99.99 |
CD1 |
77.78 |
|
68.75 |
CD2 |
91.20 |
Little |
21.88 |
CD3 |
94.44 |
Verde |
50.00 |
CD4 |
97.22 |
Bill
Williams |
56.25 |
CD5 |
93.52 |
|
40.62 |
CD6 |
96.30 |
|
56.25 |
CD7 |
100.00 |
Salt |
37.50 |
|
|
|
75.00 |
|
|
|
25.00 |
|
|
|
15.62 |
|
|
San Pedro |
25.00 |
|
|
Willcox
Playa |
18.75 |
|
|
San Simon |
21.88 |
|
|
White
Water Draw |
25.00 |
|
DECEMBER 2002 NOVEMBER 2006
(48-month): percentiles of temperature, and
precipitation for the 15
December 2006
The
following summary describes the heat and dryness across the state for the 1-,
3-, 6-, 12-, 24-, 36-, and 48-month periods.
SUMMARY
While October was cool and wet across most of the state,
November brought warm dry weather to all of
Three-month period The 3-month period gained a very dry
November and dropped a very wet August.
Only the Upper and
Six-month period includes the wet monsoon, so
precipitation is still above average for the eastern half of the state, and
near or slightly below average for the western half of the state. The extreme monsoon moisture in the San Pedro
and Willcox basins pushed them up above the 88th percentile. Temperatures were above the 78th
percentile everywhere in the state for the summer and fall and above the 96th
percentile for the southwest and west central divisions.
Twelve-month period -
shows little change from last months update, with only three watersheds in the
southeast corner near average for precipitation. The Virgin, Upper Gila and
Two-year period - shows
the
Three-year period - rankings
remain the same since the November update, except the
Four-year period - precipitation
pattern has degraded with the eastern half of the state well below average for
precipitation, the central watersheds near average and the Colorado River
watersheds slightly above average.
Temperatures are still extremely warm across the entire state.