State Precipitation &
Temperature Update for
Conditions through August 2006
Precipitation
is monitored for the state of
Here, precipitation
percentile values for the most recent month, along with previous 3-, 6-, 12-,
24-, 36-, and 48-month total are shown for each watershed. Low percentile values (brown shading)
indicate dry conditions while high values (green shading) indicate wet
conditions. For example, a precipitation total that falls at the 100th
percentile means that it is the highest precipitation total for the
1971-present period.
Temperature is monitored for the state of
Here, temperature
percentile values for the most recent month, along with previous 3-, 6-, 12-,
24-, 36-, and 48-month averages are shown for each climate division. Low percentile values (blue shading) indicate
cool conditions while high values (orange/red shading) indicate hot conditions.
For example, a temperature that falls at the 100th percentile means
that it is the highest average temperature for the 1895-present period.
The maps of the seven
periods for precipitation and temperature are shown below, with tables of the
percentile values and descriptive text following the maps.
Precipitation Percentiles by Watershed
(through August 2006)
Temperature Percentiles by Climate
Division (through August 2006)
SHORT TERM CONDITIONS: 1-6 MONTHS
The month of August
was characterized by average or above average precipitation across the entire
state, except the
Watershed |
Precipitation Percentile |
Climate
Division |
Temperature
Percentile |
Virgin |
24.29 |
CD1 |
75.89% |
|
41.67 |
CD2 |
38.39% |
Little |
72.22 |
CD3 |
54.46% |
Verde |
50.00 |
CD4 |
38.39% |
Bill
Williams |
36.11 |
CD5 |
77.68% |
|
77.78 |
CD6 |
68.75% |
|
50.00 |
CD7 |
26.79% |
Salt |
77.78 |
|
|
|
50.00 |
|
|
|
83.33 |
|
|
|
38.89 |
|
|
San Pedro |
50.00 |
|
|
Willcox
Playa |
94.44 |
|
|
San Simon |
50.00 |
|
|
White
Water Draw |
91.67 |
|
AUGUST 2006: percentiles of precipitation for the 15
Watershed |
Precipitation Percentile |
Climate
Division |
Temperature
Percentile |
Virgin |
29.41 |
CD1 |
84.82% |
|
58.33 |
CD2 |
91.07% |
Little |
80.56 |
CD3 |
90.18% |
Verde |
75.00 |
CD4 |
91.96% |
Bill
Williams |
38.89 |
CD5 |
99.11% |
|
75.00 |
CD6 |
93.75% |
|
58.33 |
CD7 |
87.50% |
Salt |
86.11 |
|
|
|
72.22 |
|
|
|
86.11 |
|
|
|
88.89 |
|
|
San Pedro |
97.22 |
|
|
Willcox
Playa |
91.67 |
|
|
San Simon |
69.44 |
|
|
White
Water Draw |
80.00 |
|
JUNE 2006 - AUGUST 2006 (3-month): percentiles of precipitation for the 15
Watershed |
Precipitation Percentile |
Climate
Division |
Temperature
Percentile |
Virgin |
52.94 |
CD1 |
77.68% |
|
41.67 |
CD2 |
86.61% |
Little |
75.00 |
CD3 |
83.93% |
Verde |
63.89 |
CD4 |
85.71% |
Bill
Williams |
25.00 |
CD5 |
85.71% |
|
52.78 |
CD6 |
86.61% |
|
66.67 |
CD7 |
91.07% |
Salt |
83.33 |
|
|
|
55.56 |
|
|
|
80.56 |
|
|
|
75.00 |
|
|
San Pedro |
94.44 |
|
|
Willcox
Playa |
80.56 |
|
|
San Simon |
61.11 |
|
|
White
Water Draw |
77.14 |
|
MARCH 2005 – AUGUST 2006 (6-month): percentiles of precipitation for the 15
INTERMEDIATE TERM
CONDITIONS: 12-24 MONTHS
The intermediate time
periods of 1- and 2-years continue to show the importance of the historical
context of drought. Most of the
watersheds remain below the 15th percentile for 12 month
precipitation, while the Virgin basin dropped below the 40th
percentile and the
In contrast, the
2-year period shows very little evidence of dryness across the western and west
central portions of the state, with precipitation totals above normal. However, the Little Colorado and the
southeastern watersheds show precipitation totals below the 35th percentile,
with the driest watersheds being the San Pedro and Willcox Playa. This 2-year
period still includes the extremely wet winter of 2005 with the extremely dry
winter of 2006. Except for climate
divisions 1 and 5 along the lower
Watershed |
Precipitation Percentile |
Climate
Division |
Temperature
Percentile |
Virgin |
33.33 |
CD1 |
78.38% |
|
14.29 |
CD2 |
91.89% |
Little |
14.29 |
CD3 |
88.29% |
Verde |
11.43 |
CD4 |
94.59% |
Bill
Williams |
5.71 |
CD5 |
87.39% |
|
5.71 |
CD6 |
95.50% |
|
11.43 |
CD7 |
97.30% |
Salt |
8.57 |
|
|
|
20.00 |
|
|
|
8.57 |
|
|
|
8.57 |
|
|
San Pedro |
37.14 |
|
|
Willcox
Playa |
23.53 |
|
|
San Simon |
5.71 |
|
|
White
Water Draw |
31.43 |
|
AUGUST 2005 – AUGUST 2006 (12-month): percentiles of precipitation for the 15
Watershed |
Precipitation Percentile |
Climate
Division |
Temperature
Percentile |
Virgin |
96.88 |
CD1 |
70.91% |
|
88.24 |
CD2 |
90.91% |
Little |
41.18 |
CD3 |
87.27% |
Verde |
76.47 |
CD4 |
93.64% |
Bill
Williams |
73.53 |
CD5 |
80.00% |
|
70.59 |
CD6 |
90.00% |
|
67.65 |
CD7 |
99.09% |
Salt |
52.94 |
|
|
|
91.18 |
|
|
|
35.29 |
|
|
|
17.65 |
|
|
San Pedro |
32.35 |
|
|
Willcox
Playa |
35.29 |
|
|
San Simon |
26.47 |
|
|
White
Water Draw |
50.00 |
|
AUGUST 2004 – AUGUST 2006 (24-month): percentiles of precipitation for the 15
LONG TERM
CONDITIONS: 36-48 MONTHS
The 36 month precipitation
rankings have changed very little in the central and southern watersheds from
the August update, but the northern third of the state has dropped from being
above the 75th percentile to being between the 60th and
75th percentiles. The southern
half of the state is still below the 50th percentile, while the
southeastern watersheds remains below the 25th percentile. The entire state is still above the 75th
percentile for temperature, with the southeast and south central portions of
the state above the 95th percentile for temperature.
The length of the
drought is still apparent from the longer 4-year period. The northern and western watersheds have had
near or above normal precipitation during the 4-year period, while the eastern
and southeastern watersheds are still well below the 25th
percentile. Along with the dryness has
been excessive heat, particularly in the southeast. This is essentially unchanged after the wet
August in the southeast watersheds. The
temperatures over the 4 year period have still been above the 95th
percentile in the southeast and south central climate divisions, and above the
75th percentile elsewhere in the state.
Watershed |
Precipitation Percentile |
Climate
Division |
Temperature
Percentile |
Virgin |
87.10 |
CD1 |
77.06% |
|
66.67 |
CD2 |
92.66% |
Little |
30.30 |
CD3 |
90.83% |
Verde |
54.55 |
CD4 |
96.33% |
Bill
Williams |
48.48 |
CD5 |
88.07% |
|
45.45 |
CD6 |
95.41% |
|
60.61 |
CD7 |
99.08% |
Salt |
39.39 |
|
|
|
75.76 |
|
|
|
21.21 |
|
|
|
12.12 |
|
|
San Pedro |
24.24 |
|
|
Willcox
Playa |
27.27 |
|
|
San Simon |
24.24 |
|
|
White
Water Draw |
42.42 |
|
AUGUST 2003 – AUGUST 2006 (36-month): percentiles of temperature, and precipitation for the 15
Watershed |
Precipitation Percentile |
Climate
Division |
Temperature
Percentile |
Virgin |
-99.99 |
CD1 |
78.70% |
|
65.62 |
CD2 |
90.74% |
Little |
28.12 |
CD3 |
95.37% |
Verde |
56.25 |
CD4 |
97.22% |
Bill
Williams |
46.88 |
CD5 |
91.67% |
|
50.00 |
CD6 |
95.37% |
|
56.25 |
CD7 |
100.00% |
Salt |
28.12 |
|
|
|
75.00 |
|
|
|
18.75 |
|
|
|
15.62 |
|
|
San Pedro |
15.62 |
|
|
Willcox
Playa |
9.38 |
|
|
San Simon |
21.88 |
|
|
White
Water Draw |
21.88 |
|
AUGUST 2002 – AUGUST 2006 (48-month): percentiles of temperature, and precipitation for the 15
August 2006
The
following summary describes the heat and dryness across the state for the 1-,
3-, 6-, 12-, 24-, 36-, and 48-month periods.
SUMMARY
●
August brought above average monsoon rainfall for much of the state,
particularly the southeast, where a few extreme rainfall events caused
widespread flooding on the
●
The 3 summer months had precipitation totals near or above average for all
basins except Bill Williams and the
●
Most of the watersheds remain below the 15th percentile for 12 month
precipitation, while the Virgin basin dropped below the 40th
percentile and the
●
In contrast, the 2-year period, which combines the wet winter of 2005 and wet
summer of 2006 with the dry winter of 2006 and dry summer of 2005, shows very
little evidence of dryness across the western and west central portions of the
state, with precipitation totals above normal.
However, the Little Colorado and the southeastern watersheds show
precipitation totals below the 35th percentile, with the driest watersheds
being the San Pedro and Willcox Playa.
Except for climate divisions 1 and 5 along the lower
●
For the 36 month period, the northern third of the state remains above average
for precipitation, while the southern half of the state is still below average,
and the southeastern watersheds remain well below the 3 year average. The entire state is still well above average
for temperature, with the southeast and south central portions of the state
above the 95th percentile.
● The northern and western
watersheds have had near or above normal precipitation during the 4-year
period, while the eastern and southeastern watersheds are still well below the
25th percentile. Along with
the dryness has been excessive heat, particularly in the southeast.